Self-Affirmation Moderates Effects of Unrealistic Optimism and Pessimism on Reactions to Tailored Risk Feedback

PubMed Central

Lipkus, Isaac M; Scholl, Sarah; McQueen, Amy; Cerully, Jennifer; Harris, Peter R

2009-01-01

We examined whether self-affirmation would facilitate intentions to engage in colorectal cancer (CRC) screening among individuals who were off-schedule for CRC screening and who were categorized as unrealistically optimistic, realistic, or unrealistically pessimistic about their CRC risk. All participants received tailored risk feedback; in addition, one group received threatening social comparison information regarding their risk factors, a second received this information after a self-affirmation exercise, and a third was a no-treatment control. When participants were unrealistically optimistic about their CRC risk (determined by comparing their perceived comparative risk to calculations from a risk algorithm), they expressed greater interest in screening if they were self-affirmed (relative to controls). Non-affirmed unrealistic optimists expressed lower interest relative to controls, suggesting that they were responding defensively. Realistic participants and unrealistically pessimistic participants who were self-affirmed expressed relatively less interest in CRC screening, suggesting that self-affirmation can be helpful or hurtful depending on the accuracy of one’s risk perceptions. PMID:20204982

Impact of an Intimate Relationships Class on Unrealistic Relationship Beliefs

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Bass, Brenda L.; Drake, Teske R.; Linney, Kirsten D.

2007-01-01

Unrealistic relationship beliefs have been shown to be related to lower levels of relationship satisfaction. Yet, young adults often hold unrealistic or irrational beliefs about intimate relationships. The purpose of this study was to assess the effectiveness of an intimate relationships course in reducing young adults' irrational relationship…

Inaccuracy of perceived competence ratings is associated with problem behaviors in 5-year-old children.

PubMed

Klaver, Jacqueline M; Palo, Amanda D; DiLalla, Lisabeth F

2014-01-01

The authors examined problem behaviors in preschool children as a function of perceived competence. Prior research has demonstrated a link between inaccuracy of self-perceptions and teacher-reported externalizing behaviors in preschool aged boys. This study extended past research by adding data collected from observed behaviors in a laboratory setting, as well as parent reports of internalizing and externalizing behaviors. Five-year-old children completed the Pictorial Scale of Perceived Competence and Social Acceptance for Young Children (PSPCSA) in the lab, participated in a 10-min puzzle interaction task with their cotwin and mother, and completed a short task assessing cognitive abilities. Children were grouped into 3 self-esteem categories (unrealistically low, realistic, and unrealistically high) based on comparisons of self-reported (PSPCSA) versus actual competencies for maternal acceptance, peer acceptance, and cognitive competence. Results showed that children who overreported their maternal acceptance and peer acceptance had significantly more parent-reported externalizing problems as well as internalizing problems. There were no significant differences in accuracy for cognitive competence. The findings from this study underscore the negative impact of unrealistically high self-appraisal on problem behaviors in young children.

Development of Risk Uncertainty Factors from Historical NASA Projects

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Amer, Tahani R.

2011-01-01

NASA is a good investment of federal funds and strives to provide the best value to the nation. NASA has consistently budgeted to unrealistic cost estimates, which are evident in the cost growth in many of its programs. In this investigation, NASA has been using available uncertainty factors from the Aerospace Corporation, Air Force, and Booz Allen Hamilton to develop projects risk posture. NASA has no insight into the developmental of these factors and, as demonstrated here, this can lead to unrealistic risks in many NASA Programs and projects (P/p). The primary contribution of this project is the development of NASA missions uncertainty factors, from actual historical NASA projects, to aid cost-estimating as well as for independent reviews which provide NASA senior management with information and analysis to determine the appropriate decision regarding P/p. In general terms, this research project advances programmatic analysis for NASA projects.

Questioning the Value of Realism: Young Adults' Processing of Messages in Alcohol-Related Public Service Announcements and Advertising.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Andsager, Julie L.; Austin, Erica Weintraub; Pinkleton, Bruce E.

2001-01-01

Finds that: (1) perceived realism and themes that students could identify with are important factors in increasing the salience and persuasiveness of alcohol-related public service announcements (PSAs) among undergraduate students; (2) realistic but logic-based PSAs were not as effective as unrealistic but enjoyable ads; and (3) low production…

Turbo test rig with hydroinertia air bearings for a palmtop gas turbine

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tanaka, Shuji; Isomura, Kousuke; Togo, Shin-ichi; Esashi, Masayoshi

2004-11-01

This paper describes a turbo test rig to test the compressor of a palmtop gas turbine generator at low temperature (<100 °C). Impellers are 10 mm in diameter and have three-dimensional blades machined using a five-axis NC milling machine. Hydroinertia bearings are employed in both radial and axial directions. The performance of the compressor was measured at 50% (435 000 rpm) and 60% (530 000 rpm) of the rated rotational speed (870 000 rpm) by driving a turbine using compressed air at room temperature. The measured pressure ratio is lower than the predicted value. This could be mainly because impeller tip clearance was larger than the designed value. The measured adiabatic efficiency is unrealistically high due to heat dissipation from compressed air. During acceleration toward the rated rotational speed, a shaft crashed to the bearing at 566 000 rpm due to whirl. At that time, the whirl ratio was 8.

Lot quality assurance sampling for monitoring immunization programmes: cost-efficient or quick and dirty?

PubMed

Sandiford, P

1993-09-01

In recent years Lot quality assurance sampling (LQAS), a method derived from production-line industry, has been advocated as an efficient means to evaluate the coverage rates achieved by child immunization programmes. This paper examines the assumptions on which LQAS is based and the effect that these assumptions have on its utility as a management tool. It shows that the attractively low sample sizes used in LQAS are achieved at the expense of specificity unless unrealistic assumptions are made about the distribution of coverage rates amongst the immunization programmes to which the method is applied. Although it is a very sensitive test and its negative predictive value is probably high in most settings, its specificity and positive predictive value are likely to be low. The implications of these strengths and weaknesses with regard to management decision-making are discussed.

Finite element elastic-plastic-creep and cyclic life analysis of a cowl lip

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Arya, Vinod K.; Melis, Matthew E.; Halford, Gary R.

1990-01-01

Results are presented of elastic, elastic-plastic, and elastic-plastic-creep analyses of a test-rig component of an actively cooled cowl lip. A cowl lip is part of the leading edge of an engine inlet of proposed hypersonic aircraft and is subject to severe thermal loadings and gradients during flight. Values of stresses calculated by elastic analysis are well above the yield strength of the cowl lip material. Such values are highly unrealistic, and thus elastic stress analyses are inappropriate. The inelastic (elastic-plastic and elastic-plastic-creep) analyses produce more reasonable and acceptable stress and strain distributions in the component. Finally, using the results from these analyses, predictions are made for the cyclic crack initiation life of a cowl lip. A comparison of predicted cyclic lives shows the cyclic life prediction from the elastic-plastic-creep analysis to be the lowest and, hence, most realistic.

Thermal maturity patterns of Cretaceous and Tertiary rocks, San Juan Basin, Colorado and New Mexico

USGS Publications Warehouse

Law, B.E.

1992-01-01

Horizontal and vertical thermal maturity patterns and time-temperature modeling indicate that the high levels of thermal maturity in the northern part of the basin are due to either: 1) convective heat transfer associated with a deeply buried heat source located directly below the northern part of the basin or 2) the circulation of relatively hot fluids into the basin from a heat source north of the basin located near the San Juan Mountains. Time-temperature and kinetic modeling of nonlinear Rm profiles indicates that present-day heat flow is insufficient to account for the measured levels of thermal maturity. Furthermore, in order to match nonlinear Rm profiles, it is necessary to assign artifically high thermal-conductivity values to some of the stratigraphic units. These unrealistically high thermal conductivities are interpreted as evidence of convective heat transfer. -from Author

The differential effect of realistic and unrealistic counterfactual thinking on regret.

PubMed

Sevdalis, Nick; Kokkinaki, Flora

2006-06-01

Research has established that realistic counterfactual thinking can determine the intensity and the content of people's affective reactions to decision outcomes and events. Not much is known, however, about the affective consequences of counterfactual thinking that is unrealistic (i.e., that does not correspond to the main causes of a negative outcome). In three experiments, we investigate the influence of realistic and unrealistic counterfactuals on experienced regret after negative outcomes. In Experiment 1, we found that participants who thought unrealistically about a poor outcome reported less regret than those who thought realistically about it. In Experiments 2a and 2b, we replicated this finding and we showed that the decrease in regret was associated with a shift in the causal attributions of the poor outcome. Participants who thought unrealistically attributed it more to external circumstances and less to their own behaviours than those who thought realistically about it. We discuss the implications of these findings for the role of counterfactuals as self-serving biases and the functionality of regret as a counterfactual emotion.

Strategic targeting of advance care planning interventions: the Goldilocks phenomenon.

PubMed

Billings, J Andrew; Bernacki, Rachelle

2014-04-01

Strategically selecting patients for discussions and documentation about limiting life-sustaining treatments-choosing the right time along the end-of-life trajectory for such an intervention and identifying patients at high risk of facing end-of-life decisions-can have a profound impact on the value of advance care planning (ACP) efforts. Timing is important because the completion of an advance directive (AD) too far from or too close to the time of death can lead to end-of-life decisions that do not optimally reflect the patient's values, goals, and preferences: a poorly chosen target patient population that is unlikely to need an AD in the near future may lead to patients making unrealistic, hypothetical choices, while assessing preferences in the emergency department or hospital in the face of a calamity is notoriously inadequate. Because much of the currently studied ACP efforts have led to a disappointingly small proportion of patients eventually benefitting from an AD, careful targeting of the intervention should also improve the efficacy of such projects. A key to optimal timing and strategic selection of target patients for an ACP program is prognostication, and we briefly highlight prognostication tools and studies that may point us toward high-value AD interventions.

Unrealistic phylogenetic trees may improve phylogenetic footprinting.

PubMed

Nettling, Martin; Treutler, Hendrik; Cerquides, Jesus; Grosse, Ivo

2017-06-01

The computational investigation of DNA binding motifs from binding sites is one of the classic tasks in bioinformatics and a prerequisite for understanding gene regulation as a whole. Due to the development of sequencing technologies and the increasing number of available genomes, approaches based on phylogenetic footprinting become increasingly attractive. Phylogenetic footprinting requires phylogenetic trees with attached substitution probabilities for quantifying the evolution of binding sites, but these trees and substitution probabilities are typically not known and cannot be estimated easily. Here, we investigate the influence of phylogenetic trees with different substitution probabilities on the classification performance of phylogenetic footprinting using synthetic and real data. For synthetic data we find that the classification performance is highest when the substitution probability used for phylogenetic footprinting is similar to that used for data generation. For real data, however, we typically find that the classification performance of phylogenetic footprinting surprisingly increases with increasing substitution probabilities and is often highest for unrealistically high substitution probabilities close to one. This finding suggests that choosing realistic model assumptions might not always yield optimal predictions in general and that choosing unrealistically high substitution probabilities close to one might actually improve the classification performance of phylogenetic footprinting. The proposed PF is implemented in JAVA and can be downloaded from https://github.com/mgledi/PhyFoo. : martin.nettling@informatik.uni-halle.de. Supplementary data are available at Bioinformatics online. © The Author 2017. Published by Oxford University Press.

The need to control for regression to the mean in social psychology studies.

PubMed

Yu, Rongjun; Chen, Li

2014-01-01

It is common in repeated measurements for extreme values at the first measurement to approach the mean at the subsequent measurement, a phenomenon called regression to the mean (RTM). If RTM is not fully controlled, it will lead to erroneous conclusions. The wide use of repeated measurements in social psychology creates a risk that an RTM effect will influence results. However, insufficient attention is paid to RTM in most social psychological research. Notable cases include studies on the phenomena of social conformity and unrealistic optimism (Klucharev et al., 2009, 2011; Sharot et al., 2011, 2012b; Campbell-Meiklejohn et al., 2012; Kim et al., 2012; Garrett and Sharot, 2014). In Study 1, 13 university students rated and re-rated the facial attractiveness of a series of female faces as a test of the social conformity effect (Klucharev et al., 2009). In Study 2, 15 university students estimated and re-estimated their risk of experiencing a series of adverse life events as a test of the unrealistic optimism effect (Sharot et al., 2011). Although these studies used methodologies similar to those used in earlier research, the social conformity and unrealistic optimism effects were no longer evident after controlling for RTM. Based on these findings we suggest several ways to control for the RTM effect in social psychology studies, such as adding the initial rating as a covariate in regression analysis, selecting a subset of stimuli for which the participant' initial ratings were matched across experimental conditions, and using a control group.

Contact Transfer of VX from Contaminated Grass onto Army Combat Uniform

DTIC Science & Technology

2017-01-01

intervals for agricultural workers who use pesticides . The reentry intervals are based on the available toxicity data, concentrations of chemicals used...for workers using some of the more toxic organophosphate pesticides . State regulators are free to set more stringent intervals. Watson suggested...report, the RASH method that uses RPF values for pesticide exposure of agricultural workers appears to be unrealistic for extrapolating to the exposure

"The Teenage Terror in the Schools": Adult Fantasies, American Youth, and Classroom Scare Films during the Cold War

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Garrison, Joshua

2009-01-01

Unrealistic as they may have been, television shows like Leave it to Beaver and Ozzie and Harriet served important social purposes during an age of tumult and anxiety. The domestic sit-coms of the 1950s played an educative function by reinforcing and disseminating traditional values at a time when forces of change were becoming quite disruptive.…

On the Impact of Illustrated Assessment Tool on Paragraph Writing of High School Graduates of Qom, Iran

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Bagheridoust, Esmaeil; Husseini, Zahra

2011-01-01

Writing as one important skill in language proficiency demands validity, hence high schools are real places in which valid results are needed for high-stake decisions. Unrealistic and non-viable tests result in improper and invalid interpretation and use. Illustrations without any written research have proved their effectiveness in whatsoever…

The Social Functions of Iranian Education: An Historical Survey Related to the Current Political Crisis. 1979 World Education Monograph Series, Number Two.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Woolman, David C.

Although the Shah of Iran should be admired for his efforts to use education to deal with formidable social challenges, his goal of producing a modern state in a single generation was unrealistic. Entrenched traditional values and unpredicted economic changes such as the need in 1977 to slow down Iran's rate of growth in the face of runaway…

Reconsidering Fairness: A Matter of Social and Ethical Priorities.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Gottfredson, Linda S.

1988-01-01

Argues on basis of research on importance of "g" (intelligence) factor and racial differences in "g" that many valid, unbiased tests can be expected to produce high levels of adverse impact when used in race-neutral manner, especially in high-level jobs. Argues that unrealistic expectation regarding racial parity often leads employers to adopt…

The need to control for regression to the mean in social psychology studies

PubMed Central

Yu, Rongjun; Chen, Li

2014-01-01

It is common in repeated measurements for extreme values at the first measurement to approach the mean at the subsequent measurement, a phenomenon called regression to the mean (RTM). If RTM is not fully controlled, it will lead to erroneous conclusions. The wide use of repeated measurements in social psychology creates a risk that an RTM effect will influence results. However, insufficient attention is paid to RTM in most social psychological research. Notable cases include studies on the phenomena of social conformity and unrealistic optimism (Klucharev et al., 2009, 2011; Sharot et al., 2011, 2012b; Campbell-Meiklejohn et al., 2012; Kim et al., 2012; Garrett and Sharot, 2014). In Study 1, 13 university students rated and re-rated the facial attractiveness of a series of female faces as a test of the social conformity effect (Klucharev et al., 2009). In Study 2, 15 university students estimated and re-estimated their risk of experiencing a series of adverse life events as a test of the unrealistic optimism effect (Sharot et al., 2011). Although these studies used methodologies similar to those used in earlier research, the social conformity and unrealistic optimism effects were no longer evident after controlling for RTM. Based on these findings we suggest several ways to control for the RTM effect in social psychology studies, such as adding the initial rating as a covariate in regression analysis, selecting a subset of stimuli for which the participant' initial ratings were matched across experimental conditions, and using a control group. PMID:25620951

Future Asian Education: The Challenge of Numbers.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Adiseshiah, Malcolm S.

1980-01-01

Probes educational problems and needs in the developing nations of Asia. The major problems are overpopulation, poor educational facilities in rural areas, insufficient financial resources, inappropriate educational models and objectives, and unrealistically high expectations. More recent educational models stress equalizing educational access and…

Ukrainian Security Policy

DTIC Science & Technology

2006-03-08

holodomor – a mass famine artificially created by imposed unrealistically high quotas on grain production that was turned over to the central Soviet...15 Ibid., 9. 16 The Ukrainian Congress Committee of America, Inc., The Voice of the Ukrainian American Community, “ Holodomor - the Famine Genocide in

A quality assured surface wind database in Eastern Canada

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lucio-Eceiza, E. E.; González-Rouco, J. F.; Navarro, J.; Beltrami, H.; Jiménez, P. A.; García-Bustamante, E.; Hidalgo, A.

2012-04-01

This work summarizes the results of a Quality Assurance (QA) procedure applied to wind data centred over a wide area in Eastern Canada. The region includes the provinces of Quebec, Prince Edward Island, New Brunswick, Nova Scotia, Newfoundland, Labrador and parts of the north-eastern U.S. (Maine, New Hampshire, Massachusetts, New York and Vermont). The data set consists of 527 stations compiled from three different sources: 344 land sites from Environment Canada (EC; 1940-2009), 40 buoys distributed over the East Coast and the Canadian Great Lakes provided by the Department of Fisheries and Oceans (DFO; 1988-2008), and 143 land sites over both eastern Canada and north-eastern U.S. provided by the National Center of Atmospheric Research (NCAR; 1975-2007). The complexity of the QA process is enhanced in this case by the variety of institutional observational protocols that lead to different temporal resolutions (hourly, 3-h and 6-h), unit systems (km/h in EC; m/s in DFO and knots in NCAR), time references (e.g. UTC, UTC+1, UTC-5, UTC-4), etc. Initial corrections comprised the establishment of common reference systems for time (UTC) and units (MKS). The QA applied on the resulting dataset is structured in three steps that involve the detection and correction of: manipulation errors (i.e. repetitions); unrealistic values and ranges in wind module and direction; abnormally low (e.g. long constant periods) and high variations (e.g. extreme values and inhomogeneities). Results from the first step indicate 22 sites (8 EC; 14 DFO) showing temporal patterns that are unrealistically repeated along the stations. After the QA is applied, the dataset will be subject to statistical and dynamical downscaling studies. The statistical approaches will allow for an understanding of the wind field variability related to changes in the large scale atmospheric circulation as well as their dependence on local/regional features like topography, land-sea contrasts, snow/ice presence, etc. The dynamical downscaling will allow for process understanding assessments by performing high spatial resolution simulations with the WRF model. Finally, model validation will be targeted through the comparison with observations.

Stable estimate of primary OC/EC ratios in the EC tracer method

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chu, Shao-Hang

In fine particulate matter studies, the primary OC/EC ratio plays an important role in estimating the secondary organic aerosol contribution to PM2.5 concentrations using the EC tracer method. In this study, numerical experiments are carried out to test and compare various statistical techniques in the estimation of primary OC/EC ratios. The influence of random measurement errors in both primary OC and EC measurements on the estimation of the expected primary OC/EC ratios is examined. It is found that random measurement errors in EC generally create an underestimation of the slope and an overestimation of the intercept of the ordinary least-squares regression line. The Deming regression analysis performs much better than the ordinary regression, but it tends to overcorrect the problem by slightly overestimating the slope and underestimating the intercept. Averaging the ratios directly is usually undesirable because the average is strongly influenced by unrealistically high values of OC/EC ratios resulting from random measurement errors at low EC concentrations. The errors generally result in a skewed distribution of the OC/EC ratios even if the parent distributions of OC and EC are close to normal. When measured OC contains a significant amount of non-combustion OC Deming regression is a much better tool and should be used to estimate both the primary OC/EC ratio and the non-combustion OC. However, if the non-combustion OC is negligibly small the best and most robust estimator of the OC/EC ratio turns out to be the simple ratio of the OC and EC averages. It not only reduces random errors by averaging individual variables separately but also acts as a weighted average of ratios to minimize the influence of unrealistically high OC/EC ratios created by measurement errors at low EC concentrations. The median of OC/EC ratios ranks a close second, and the geometric mean of ratios ranks third. This is because their estimations are insensitive to questionable extreme values. A real world example is given using the ambient data collected from an Atlanta STN site during the winter of 2001-2002.

Unrealistic optimism and 'nosognosia': illness recognition in the healthy brain.

PubMed

McKay, Ryan; Buchmann, Andreas; Germann, Nicole; Yu, Shancong; Brugger, Peter

2014-12-01

At the centenary of research on anosognosia, the time seems ripe to supplement work in anosognosic patients with empirical studies on nosognosia in healthy participants. To this end, we adopted a signal detection framework to investigate the lateralized recognition of illness words--an operational measure of nosognosia--in healthy participants. As positively biased reports about one's current health status (anosognosia) and future health status (unrealistic optimism) have both been associated with deficient right hemispheric functioning, and conversely with undisturbed left hemispheric functioning, we hypothesised that more optimistic participants would adopt a more conservative response criterion, and/or display less sensitivity, when identifying illnesses in our nosognosia task; especially harmful illnesses presented to the left hemisphere via the right visual field. Thirty-two healthy right-handed men estimated their own relative risk of contracting a series of illnesses in the future, and then completed a novel computer task assessing their recognition of illness names presented to the left or right visual field. To check that effects were specific to the recognition of illness (rather than reflecting recognition of lexical items per se), we also administered a standard lateralized lexical decision task. Highly optimistic participants tended to be more conservative in detecting illnesses, especially harmful illnesses presented to the right visual field. Contrary to expectation, they were also more sensitive to illness names in this half-field. We suggest that, in evolutionary terms, unrealistic optimism may be an adaptive trait that combines a high perceptual sensitivity to threat with a high threshold for acknowledging its presence. The signal detection approach to nosognosia developed here may open up new avenues for the understanding of anosognosia in neurological patients. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Collective behaviour in vertebrates: a sensory perspective

PubMed Central

Collignon, Bertrand; Fernández-Juricic, Esteban

2016-01-01

Collective behaviour models can predict behaviours of schools, flocks, and herds. However, in many cases, these models make biologically unrealistic assumptions in terms of the sensory capabilities of the organism, which are applied across different species. We explored how sensitive collective behaviour models are to these sensory assumptions. Specifically, we used parameters reflecting the visual coverage and visual acuity that determine the spatial range over which an individual can detect and interact with conspecifics. Using metric and topological collective behaviour models, we compared the classic sensory parameters, typically used to model birds and fish, with a set of realistic sensory parameters obtained through physiological measurements. Compared with the classic sensory assumptions, the realistic assumptions increased perceptual ranges, which led to fewer groups and larger group sizes in all species, and higher polarity values and slightly shorter neighbour distances in the fish species. Overall, classic visual sensory assumptions are not representative of many species showing collective behaviour and constrain unrealistically their perceptual ranges. More importantly, caution must be exercised when empirically testing the predictions of these models in terms of choosing the model species, making realistic predictions, and interpreting the results. PMID:28018616

Mars-GRAM 2010: Improving the Precision of Mars-GRAM

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Justh, H. L.; Justus, C. G.; Ramey, H. S.

2011-01-01

It has been discovered during the Mars Science Laboratory (MSL) site selection process that the Mars Global Reference Atmospheric Model (Mars-GRAM) when used for sensitivity studies for Thermal Emission Spectrometer (TES) MapYear=0 and large optical depth values, such as tau=3, is less than realistic. Mars-GRAM's perturbation modeling capability is commonly used, in a Monte-Carlo mode, to perform high fidelity engineering end-to-end simulations for entry, descent, and landing (EDL). Mars-GRAM 2005 has been validated against Radio Science data, and both nadir and limb data from TES. Traditional Mars-GRAM options for representing the mean atmosphere along entry corridors include: (1) TES mapping year 0, with user-controlled dust optical depth and Mars-GRAM data interpolated from NASA Ames Mars General Circulation Model (MGCM) results driven by selected values of globally-uniform dust optical depth, or (2) TES mapping years 1 and 2, with Mars-GRAM data coming from MGCM results driven by observed TES dust optical depth. From the surface to 80 km altitude, Mars-GRAM is based on NASA Ames MGCM. Above 80 km, Mars-GRAM is based on the University of Michigan Mars Thermospheric General Circulation Model (MTGCM). MGCM results that were used for Mars-GRAM with MapYear=0 were from a MGCM run with a fixed value of tau=3 for the entire year at all locations. This choice of data has led to discrepancies that have become apparent during recent sensitivity studies for MapYear=0 and large optical depths. Unrealistic energy absorption by time-invariant atmospheric dust leads to an unrealistic thermal energy balance on the polar caps. The outcome is an inaccurate cycle of condensation/sublimation of the polar caps and, as a consequence, an inaccurate cycle of total atmospheric mass and global-average surface pressure. Under an assumption of unchanged temperature profile and hydrostatic equilibrium, a given percentage change in surface pressure would produce a corresponding percentage change in density at all altitudes. Consequently, the final result of a change in surface pressure is an imprecise atmospheric density at all altitudes.

Marketing: Educators New Buzz Word.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Cotoia, Anthony M.

Many concerned academic administrators are turning to marketing as the cure for shrinking enrollments. These administrators often have unrealistic expectations of what marketing techniques can achieve. Marketing cannot cover up for programs of poor quality, create customers in an over-harvested market, or overcome high attrition when students…

Evaluation of cloud-resolving and limited area model intercomparison simulations using TWP-ICE observations: 1. Deep convective updraft properties: Eval. of TWP-ICE CRMs and LAMs Pt. 1

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Varble, Adam; Zipser, Edward J.; Fridlind, Ann M.

2014-12-18

Ten 3D cloud-resolving model (CRM) simulations and four 3D limited area model (LAM) simulations of an intense mesoscale convective system observed on 23-24 January 2006 during the Tropical Warm Pool – International Cloud Experiment (TWP-ICE) are compared with each other and with observed radar reflectivity fields and dual-Doppler retrievals of vertical wind speeds in an attempt to explain published results showing a high bias in simulated convective radar reflectivity aloft. This high bias results from ice water content being large, which is a product of large, strong convective updrafts, although hydrometeor size distribution assumptions modulate the size of this bias.more » Making snow mass more realistically proportional to D2 rather than D3 eliminates unrealistically large snow reflectivities over 40 dBZ in some simulations. Graupel, unlike snow, produces high biased reflectivity in all simulations, which is partly a result of parameterized microphysics, but also partly a result of overly intense simulated updrafts. Peak vertical velocities in deep convective updrafts are greater than dual-Doppler retrieved values, especially in the upper troposphere. Freezing of liquid condensate, often rain, lofted above the freezing level in simulated updraft cores greatly contributes to these excessive upper tropospheric vertical velocities. The strongest simulated updraft cores are nearly undiluted, with some of the strongest showing supercell characteristics during the multicellular (pre-squall) stage of the event. Decreasing horizontal grid spacing from 900 to 100 meters slightly weakens deep updraft vertical velocity and moderately decreases the amount of condensate aloft, but not enough to match observational retrievals. Therefore, overly intense simulated updrafts may additionally be a product of unrealistic interactions between convective dynamics, parameterized microphysics, and the large-scale model forcing that promote different convective strengths than observed.« less

Moral contracts and the patient-physician relationship.

PubMed

Rothbard, D

1984-01-01

Rothbart critically examines Robert Veatch's contractual model of the physician patient relationship, which grounds a physician's obligations in a just decision procedure and requires a mutual, full disclosure of personal values and ethical principles. He sees Veatch's model as making unrealistic demands on both parties, and instead proposes a counseling-sanctioning model. In this model, two conceptions of individual autonomy, one creating a right to voluntary and independent decision making and the other addressing the ability to act freely, establish rights and duties for patient and physician. Rothbart argues that this model realistically represents the value-laden dimensions of medicine and mandates reasonable standards of patient care.

More Outstanding Nonsense: A Critique of Ofsted Criteria

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Richards, Colin

2015-01-01

The Office for Standards in Education's most recently published criteria for "outstanding" teaching are scrutinised and found wanting. They are seen as unrealistic for teachers to meet and equally unrealistic as criteria for use by inspectors. An explanation is offered as to why they are framed as they are and an alternative, more…

[The Effect of Desegregation on the Minority Child.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Siggers, Kathleen

Measurements of self worth show that children in segregated schools, both white and black, have unrealistically high aspirations. Mexican-Americans measure lower than other major ethnic groups in feelings of self worth. There is evidence from social investigations, however, that segregation produces feelings of "imposed inferiority" among minority…

If You're So Smart, Why Aren't You Rich?

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Woloshin, Phyllis

1986-01-01

Argues that salary differentials among community college faculty are unrealistic and based on the inaccurate assumptions that people are motivated primarily by money; that high-demand disciplines will remain constant over time; that attitudes toward other disciplines and faculty members are unaffected by salary differentials; and that teaching is…

Improving High School Transition with CAT Camp

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Geltner, Jill; Law, Brian; Forehand, Amanda; Miles, Dinah Amber

2011-01-01

Transition to a new school for adolescent students can be challenging. Students who have difficulty navigating the transition to ninth grade are at an increased disadvantage academically and personally. Even students who approach the move with excitement often have unrealistic expectations of what is necessary for success. Overall, those who do…

Forecasting economic gains from intensive plantation management using unrealistic yield over input curves

Treesearch

David B. South; Curtis L. VanderSchaaf; Larry D. Teeter

2006-01-01

Some researchers claim that continuously increasing intensive plantation management will increase profits and reduce the unit cost of wood production while others believe in the law of diminishing returns. We developed four hypothetical production models where yield is a function of silvicultural effort. Models that produced unrealistic results were (1) an exponential...

Determination techniques of Archie’s parameters: a, m and n in heterogeneous reservoirs

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mohamad, A. M.; Hamada, G. M.

2017-12-01

The determination of water saturation in a heterogeneous reservoir is becoming more challenging, as Archie’s equation is only suitable for clean homogeneous formation and Archie’s parameters are highly dependent on the properties of the rock. This study focuses on the measurement of Archie’s parameters in carbonate and sandstone core samples around Malaysian heterogeneous carbonate and sandstone reservoirs. Three techniques for the determination of Archie’s parameters a, m and n will be implemented: the conventional technique, core Archie parameter estimation (CAPE) and the three-dimensional regression technique (3D). By using the results obtained by the three different techniques, water saturation graphs were produced to observe the symbolic difference of Archie’s parameter and its relevant impact on water saturation values. The difference in water saturation values can be primarily attributed to showing the uncertainty level of Archie’s parameters, mainly in carbonate and sandstone rock samples. It is obvious that the accuracy of Archie’s parameters has a profound impact on the calculated water saturation values in carbonate sandstone reservoirs due to regions of high stress reducing electrical conduction resulting from the raised electrical heterogeneity of the heterogeneous carbonate core samples. Due to the unrealistic assumptions involved in the conventional method, it is better to use either the CAPE or 3D method to accurately determine Archie’s parameters in heterogeneous as well as homogeneous reservoirs.

Bistability, non-ergodicity, and inhibition in pairwise maximum-entropy models

PubMed Central

Grün, Sonja; Helias, Moritz

2017-01-01

Pairwise maximum-entropy models have been used in neuroscience to predict the activity of neuronal populations, given only the time-averaged correlations of the neuron activities. This paper provides evidence that the pairwise model, applied to experimental recordings, would produce a bimodal distribution for the population-averaged activity, and for some population sizes the second mode would peak at high activities, that experimentally would be equivalent to 90% of the neuron population active within time-windows of few milliseconds. Several problems are connected with this bimodality: 1. The presence of the high-activity mode is unrealistic in view of observed neuronal activity and on neurobiological grounds. 2. Boltzmann learning becomes non-ergodic, hence the pairwise maximum-entropy distribution cannot be found: in fact, Boltzmann learning would produce an incorrect distribution; similarly, common variants of mean-field approximations also produce an incorrect distribution. 3. The Glauber dynamics associated with the model is unrealistically bistable and cannot be used to generate realistic surrogate data. This bimodality problem is first demonstrated for an experimental dataset from 159 neurons in the motor cortex of macaque monkey. Evidence is then provided that this problem affects typical neural recordings of population sizes of a couple of hundreds or more neurons. The cause of the bimodality problem is identified as the inability of standard maximum-entropy distributions with a uniform reference measure to model neuronal inhibition. To eliminate this problem a modified maximum-entropy model is presented, which reflects a basic effect of inhibition in the form of a simple but non-uniform reference measure. This model does not lead to unrealistic bimodalities, can be found with Boltzmann learning, and has an associated Glauber dynamics which incorporates a minimal asymmetric inhibition. PMID:28968396

Bistability, non-ergodicity, and inhibition in pairwise maximum-entropy models.

PubMed

Rostami, Vahid; Porta Mana, PierGianLuca; Grün, Sonja; Helias, Moritz

2017-10-01

Pairwise maximum-entropy models have been used in neuroscience to predict the activity of neuronal populations, given only the time-averaged correlations of the neuron activities. This paper provides evidence that the pairwise model, applied to experimental recordings, would produce a bimodal distribution for the population-averaged activity, and for some population sizes the second mode would peak at high activities, that experimentally would be equivalent to 90% of the neuron population active within time-windows of few milliseconds. Several problems are connected with this bimodality: 1. The presence of the high-activity mode is unrealistic in view of observed neuronal activity and on neurobiological grounds. 2. Boltzmann learning becomes non-ergodic, hence the pairwise maximum-entropy distribution cannot be found: in fact, Boltzmann learning would produce an incorrect distribution; similarly, common variants of mean-field approximations also produce an incorrect distribution. 3. The Glauber dynamics associated with the model is unrealistically bistable and cannot be used to generate realistic surrogate data. This bimodality problem is first demonstrated for an experimental dataset from 159 neurons in the motor cortex of macaque monkey. Evidence is then provided that this problem affects typical neural recordings of population sizes of a couple of hundreds or more neurons. The cause of the bimodality problem is identified as the inability of standard maximum-entropy distributions with a uniform reference measure to model neuronal inhibition. To eliminate this problem a modified maximum-entropy model is presented, which reflects a basic effect of inhibition in the form of a simple but non-uniform reference measure. This model does not lead to unrealistic bimodalities, can be found with Boltzmann learning, and has an associated Glauber dynamics which incorporates a minimal asymmetric inhibition.

Pressures in Tumuli: A Study of Tumuli Formation

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hansen, James E.

2005-01-01

Tumuli form via localized inflation in surface lava flows. These domed features have widths of 10-20 m, lengths of 10-150 m, and heights of 1-9 m. The axial fracture exposes a brittle crust overlying a ductilely deformed layer. The total crustal thickness is typically less than lm. Tumuli are observed on both terrestrial and martian lava flow surfaces, and provide insight on the flow formation processes and rates. Past studies have estimated the inflation pressure using a bending model for a circular, thin elastic plate, assuming small deflection (Rossi and Gudmundson, 1996). This formulation results in unrealistic pressures for some tumuli. We thus examine alternative models, including those with different shapes, bending of the ductile crust, large deflection, plastic deformation, and thick plate bending. Using the thickness of the ductile crust in the equations for thin, circular plates reduces most pressures to reasonable values. Alternative plate shapes do not cause a significant reduction in inflation pressure. Although the large deflection equations should be applicable based on the plate thickness to tumuli height ratios, they give even less realistic pressures. Tumuli with unrealistic pressures appear to have exceeded the critical bending moment, and have relatively thick crusts, requiring thick plate bending models.

Enthalpy of Formation of N 2 H 4 (Hydrazine) Revisited

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Feller, David; Bross, David H.; Ruscic, Branko

2017-08-02

In order to address the accuracy of the long-standing experimental enthalpy of formation of gas-phase hydrazine, fully confirmed in earlier versions of Active Thermochemical Tables (ATcT), the provenance of that value is re-examined in light of new high-end calculations of the Feller-Peterson-Dixon (FPD) variety. An overly optimistic determination of the vaporization enthalpy of hydrazine, which created an unrealistically strong connection between the gas phase thermochemistry and the calorimetric results defining the thermochemistry of liquid hydrazine was identified as the probable culprit. The new enthalpy of formation of gas-phase hydrazine, based on balancing all available knowledge, was determined to be 111.57more » ± 0.47 kJ/mol at 0 K (97.41 kJ/mol at 298.15 K). Close agreement was found between the ATcT (even excluding the latest theoretical result) and FPD enthalpies.« less

Enthalpy of Formation of N2H4 (Hydrazine) Revisited.

PubMed

Feller, David; Bross, David H; Ruscic, Branko

2017-08-17

In order to address the accuracy of the long-standing experimental enthalpy of formation of gas-phase hydrazine, fully confirmed in earlier versions of Active Thermochemical Tables (ATcT), the provenance of that value is re-examined in light of new high-end calculations of the Feller-Peterson-Dixon (FPD) variety. An overly optimistic determination of the vaporization enthalpy of hydrazine, which created an unrealistically strong connection between the gas phase thermochemistry and the calorimetric results defining the thermochemistry of liquid hydrazine, was identified as the probable culprit. The new enthalpy of formation of gas-phase hydrazine, based on balancing all available knowledge, was determined to be 111.57 ± 0.47 kJ/mol at 0 K (97.42 ± 0.47 kJ/mol at 298.15 K). Close agreement was found between the ATcT (even excluding the latest theoretical result) and the FPD enthalpy.

The Culture-Area Concept: Does it Diffract Anthropological Light?

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Howard, James H.

1975-01-01

It is contended that the consistent employment of the culture area theory by several generations of anthropologists, historians, and writers on American Indian art has tended to create a highly unrealistic and rigid picture of American Indian Cultures in the eyes of both the public and the Indian people themselves. (JC)

Perceptions of Risk Factors for School Violence: Concordance with FBI Risk Profile

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Wetterneck, Chad; Sass, Daniel A.; Davies, W. Hobart

2004-01-01

The Federal Bureau of Investigation (FBI, 2000) recently released a report on common background characteristics of school shooters, which also stressed the importance of evaluating the reality of threat. The present study evaluated respondents' ability to discriminate between an unrealistic and a realistic threat and between a low and high risk…

Perceptions of Risk Factors for School Violence: Concordance with FBI Risk Profile

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Wetterneck, Chad; Sass, Daniel A.; Davies, W. Hobart

2005-01-01

The Federal Bureau of Investigation (FBI, 2000) recently released a report on common background characteristics of school shooters, which also stressed the importance of evaluating the reality of threat. The present study evaluated respondents' ability to discriminate between an unrealistic and a realistic threat and between a low and high risk…

Unrealistic comparative optimism: An unsuccessful search for evidence of a genuinely motivational bias

PubMed Central

Harris, Adam J. L.; de Molière, Laura; Soh, Melinda; Hahn, Ulrike

2017-01-01

One of the most accepted findings across psychology is that people are unrealistically optimistic in their judgments of comparative risk concerning future life events—they judge negative events as less likely to happen to themselves than to the average person. Harris and Hahn (2011), however, demonstrated how unbiased (non-optimistic) responses can result in data patterns commonly interpreted as indicative of optimism due to statistical artifacts. In the current paper, we report the results of 5 studies that control for these statistical confounds and observe no evidence for residual unrealistic optimism, even observing a ‘severity effect’ whereby severe outcomes were overestimated relative to neutral ones (Studies 3 & 4). We conclude that there is no evidence supporting an optimism interpretation of previous results using the prevalent comparison method. PMID:28278200

Unrealistic comparative optimism: An unsuccessful search for evidence of a genuinely motivational bias.

PubMed

Harris, Adam J L; de Molière, Laura; Soh, Melinda; Hahn, Ulrike

2017-01-01

One of the most accepted findings across psychology is that people are unrealistically optimistic in their judgments of comparative risk concerning future life events-they judge negative events as less likely to happen to themselves than to the average person. Harris and Hahn (2011), however, demonstrated how unbiased (non-optimistic) responses can result in data patterns commonly interpreted as indicative of optimism due to statistical artifacts. In the current paper, we report the results of 5 studies that control for these statistical confounds and observe no evidence for residual unrealistic optimism, even observing a 'severity effect' whereby severe outcomes were overestimated relative to neutral ones (Studies 3 & 4). We conclude that there is no evidence supporting an optimism interpretation of previous results using the prevalent comparison method.

Evaluating the Assumptions of Surface Reflectance and Aerosol Type Selection Within the MODIS Aerosol Retrieval Over Land: The Problem of Dust Type Selection

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Mielonen, T.; Levy, R. C.; Aaltonen, V.; Komppula, M.; de Leeuw, G.; Huttunen, J.; Lihavainen, H.; Kolmonen, P.; Lehtinen, K. E. J.; Arola, A.

2011-01-01

Aerosol Optical Depth (AOD) and Angstrom exponent (AE) values derived with the MODIS retrieval algorithm over land (Collection 5) are compared with ground based sun photometer measurements at eleven sites spanning the globe. Although, in general, total AOD compares well at these sites (R2 values generally over 0.8), there are cases (from 2 to 67% of the measurements depending on the site) where MODIS clearly retrieves the wrong spectral dependence, and hence, an unrealistic AE value. Some of these poor AE retrievals are due to the aerosol signal being too small (total AOD<0.3) but in other cases the AOD should have been high enough to derive accurate AE. However, in these cases, MODIS indicates AE values close to 0.6 and zero fine model weighting (FMW), i.e. dust model provides the best fitting to the MODIS observed reflectance. Yet, according to evidence from the collocated sun photometer measurements and back-trajectory analyses, there should be no dust present. This indicates that the assumptions about aerosol model and surface properties made by the MODIS algorithm may have been incorrect. Here we focus on problems related to parameterization of the land-surface optical properties in the algorithm, in particular the relationship between the surface reflectance at 660 and 2130 nm.

The asymptotic behaviour of parton distributions at small and large x.

PubMed

Ball, Richard D; Nocera, Emanuele R; Rojo, Juan

2016-01-01

It has been argued from the earliest days of quantum chromodynamics that at asymptotically small values of x the parton distribution functions (PDFs) of the proton behave as [Formula: see text], where the values of [Formula: see text] can be deduced from Regge theory, while at asymptotically large values of x the PDFs behave as [Formula: see text], where the values of [Formula: see text] can be deduced from the Brodsky-Farrar quark counting rules. We critically examine these claims by extracting the exponents [Formula: see text] and [Formula: see text] from various global fits of parton distributions, analysing their scale dependence, and comparing their values to the naive expectations. We find that for valence distributions both Regge theory and counting rules are confirmed, at least within uncertainties, while for sea quarks and gluons the results are less conclusive. We also compare results from various PDF fits for the structure function ratio [Formula: see text] at large x , and caution against unrealistic uncertainty estimates due to overconstrained parametrisations.

A nonradial pulsation model for the rapidly rotating Delta Scuti star Kappa(2) Bootis

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kennelly, E. J.; Walker, G. A. H.; Hubeny, I.

1991-01-01

A sectorial nonradial pulsation model is used to construct theoretical line profiles which mimic the variations for Kappa(2) Boo. Synthetic spectra generated with the appropriate Teff and log g are used as input. It is found that the data can be reproduced by the combination of a high-degree l is approximately equal to 12 mode with P(osc) aproximately equal to 0.071 d, and a low-degree mode, l is approximately equal to 0-2 with P(osc) approximately equal to 0.071-0.079 d. The projected rotational velocity (v sin i - 115 +/-5 km/s) was determined by fitting synthetic line profiles to the observed spectra. The velocity amplitude of the high-degree oscillations is estimated to be about 3.5 km/s. It is found that the ratio of the horizontal and radial pulsation amplitudes is small (about 0.02) and consistent with p-mode oscillations. Comparisons are made with models invoking starspots, and it is impossible to fit the observations of Kappa(2) Boo by a starspot model without assuming unrealistic values of radius or equatorial velocity.

Cultura, Comunicacion e interaccion: Hacia el contexto total del lenguage y el hombre hispanicos (Culture, Communication and Interaction: Towards a Total Context of the Spanish Language and Speaker)

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Poyatos, Fernando

1974-01-01

Described the methodological problems in setting up a kinesic inventory. Concludes that it is highly unrealistic to study language by itself without analyzing the formal and semantic make-up of the triple basic structure of language-paralanguage-kinesics. (Text is in Spanish.) (DS)

Admitting Syrian Refugees: Is The Threat of Islamic State Infiltration Justified

DTIC Science & Technology

2017-06-01

operatives through electronic media , and risking exposure during the vetting process is unnecessary when easier means of access are available. 14...refugee program are unrealistic. The Islamic State recruits Western operatives through electronic media , and risking exposure during the vetting...Treasury Enforcement Communications System UNHCR United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees USCIS United States Citizenship and Immigration

Physical Activity in Vietnam: Estimates and Measurement Issues.

PubMed

Bui, Tan Van; Blizzard, Christopher Leigh; Luong, Khue Ngoc; Truong, Ngoc Le Van; Tran, Bao Quoc; Otahal, Petr; Srikanth, Velandai; Nelson, Mark Raymond; Au, Thuy Bich; Ha, Son Thai; Phung, Hai Ngoc; Tran, Mai Hoang; Callisaya, Michele; Gall, Seana

2015-01-01

Our aims were to provide the first national estimates of physical activity (PA) for Vietnam, and to investigate issues affecting their accuracy. Measurements were made using the Global Physical Activity Questionnaire (GPAQ) on a nationally-representative sample of 14706 participants (46.5% males, response 64.1%) aged 25-64 years selected by multi-stage stratified cluster sampling. Approximately 20% of Vietnamese people had no measureable PA during a typical week, but 72.9% (men) and 69.1% (women) met WHO recommendations for PA by adults for their age. On average, 52.0 (men) and 28.0 (women) Metabolic Equivalent Task (MET)-hours/week (largely from work activities) were reported. Work and total PA were higher in rural areas and varied by season. Less than 2% of respondents provided incomplete information, but an additional one-in-six provided unrealistically high values of PA. Those responsible for reporting errors included persons from rural areas and all those with unstable work patterns. Box-Cox transformation (with an appropriate constant added) was the most successful method of reducing the influence of large values, but energy-scaled values were most strongly associated with pathophysiological outcomes. Around seven-in-ten Vietnamese people aged 25-64 years met WHO recommendations for total PA, which was mainly from work activities and higher in rural areas. Nearly all respondents were able to report their activity using the GPAQ, but with some exaggerated values and seasonal variation in reporting. Data transformation provided plausible summary values, but energy-scaling fared best in association analyses.

Beyond Corroboration: Strengthening Model Validation by Looking for Unexpected Patterns

PubMed Central

Chérel, Guillaume; Cottineau, Clémentine; Reuillon, Romain

2015-01-01

Models of emergent phenomena are designed to provide an explanation to global-scale phenomena from local-scale processes. Model validation is commonly done by verifying that the model is able to reproduce the patterns to be explained. We argue that robust validation must not only be based on corroboration, but also on attempting to falsify the model, i.e. making sure that the model behaves soundly for any reasonable input and parameter values. We propose an open-ended evolutionary method based on Novelty Search to look for the diverse patterns a model can produce. The Pattern Space Exploration method was tested on a model of collective motion and compared to three common a priori sampling experiment designs. The method successfully discovered all known qualitatively different kinds of collective motion, and performed much better than the a priori sampling methods. The method was then applied to a case study of city system dynamics to explore the model’s predicted values of city hierarchisation and population growth. This case study showed that the method can provide insights on potential predictive scenarios as well as falsifiers of the model when the simulated dynamics are highly unrealistic. PMID:26368917

Reward and uncertainty in exploration programs

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kaufman, G. M.; Bradley, P. G.

1971-01-01

A set of variables which are crucial to the economic outcome of petroleum exploration are discussed. These are treated as random variables; the values they assume indicate the number of successes that occur in a drilling program and determine, for a particular discovery, the unit production cost and net economic return if that reservoir is developed. In specifying the joint probability law for those variables, extreme and probably unrealistic assumptions are made. In particular, the different random variables are assumed to be independently distributed. Using postulated probability functions and specified parameters, values are generated for selected random variables, such as reservoir size. From this set of values the economic magnitudes of interest, net return and unit production cost are computed. This constitutes a single trial, and the procedure is repeated many times. The resulting histograms approximate the probability density functions of the variables which describe the economic outcomes of an exploratory drilling program.

Uncovering nurse educators' beliefs and values about grading academic papers: guidelines for best practices.

PubMed

O'Flynn-Magee, Kathy; Clauson, Marion

2013-09-01

Fair and consistent assessment, specifically grading, is crucial to teaching and learning scholarship and is a professional responsibility of nurse educators. Yet, many would agree that assessment is one of the most challenging aspects of their role. Despite differing beliefs, values, and meanings attributed to grading and grades, teachers' grading practices should be guided by principles and supported by policies. Inconsistent grading practices among educators, students' unrealistic expectations of grades, and a trend toward grade inflation may be contributing to both educators' and students' concerns. A teaching scholarship project that led to a research study explored nurse educators' beliefs, values, and practices related to the grading of written academic work. The purpose of this article is to share the findings and the resulting grading guidelines that were developed to support nurse educators' endeavors to enact equitable grading practices. Copyright 2013, SLACK Incorporated.

Environmental impacts and regulatory policy implications of spray disposal of dredged material in Louisiana wetlands

USGS Publications Warehouse

Cahoon, D.R.; Cowan, J.H.

1988-01-01

The capabilities of a new wetland dredging technology were assessed along with associated newly developed state and federal regulatory policies to determine if policy expectations realistically match the technological achievement. Current regulatory practices require amelioration of spoil bank impacts upon abandonment of an oil/gas well, but this may not occur for many years or decades, if at all. Recently, a dreding method (high-pressure spray spoil disposal) was developed that does not create a spoil bank in the traditional sense. Its potential for reducing environmental impacts was recognized immediately by regulatory agencies for whom minimizing spoil bank impacts is a major concern. The use of high-pressure spray disposal as a suitable alternative to traditional dreding technology has been adopted as policy even though its value as a management tool has never been tested or verified. A qualitative evaluation at two spoil disposal sites in saline marsh indicates that high-pressure spray disposal may indeed have great potential to minimize impacts, but most of this potential remains unverified. Also, some aspects of current regulatory policy may be based on unrealistic expectations as to the ability of this new technology to minimize or eliminate spoil bank impacts.

Hope in the Face of Climate Change: Associations with Environmental Engagement and Student Perceptions of Teachers' Emotion Communication Style and Future Orientation

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Ojala, Maria

2015-01-01

Is hope concerning climate change related to environmental engagement, or is it rather associated with unrealistic optimism and inactivity? This study on Swedish high school students identified two kinds of hope: constructive hope and hope based on denial. Constructive hope was positively associated with engagement and a perception that teachers…

Temperature and initial curvature effects in low-density panel flutter

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Resende, Hugo B.

1992-01-01

The panel flutter phenomenon is studied assuming free-molecule flow. This kind of analysis is relevant in the case of hypersonic flight vehicles traveling at high altitudes, especially in the leeward portion of the vehicle. In these conditions the aerodynamic shear can be expected to be considerably larger than the pressure at a given point, so that the effects of such a loading are incorporated into the structural model. Both the pressure and shear loadings are functions of the panel temperature, which can lead to great variations on the location of the stability boundaries for parametric studies. Different locations can, however, be 'collapsed' onto one another by using as ordinate an appropriately normalized dynamic pressure parameter. This procedure works better for higher values of the panel temperature for a fixed undisturbed flow temperature. Finally, the behavior of the system is studied when the panel has some initial curvature. This leads to the conclusion that it may be unrealistic to try to distinguish between a parabolic or sinusoidal initial shape.

A modified social force model for crowd dynamics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hassan, Ummi Nurmasyitah; Zainuddin, Zarita; Abu-Sulyman, Ibtesam M.

2017-08-01

The Social Force Model (SFM) is one of the most successful models in microscopic pedestrian studies that is used to study the movement of pedestrians. Many modifications have been done to improvise the SFM by earlier researchers such as the incorporation of a constant respect factor into the self-stopping mechanism. Before the new mechanism is introduced, the researchers found out that a pedestrian will immediately come to a halt if other pedestrians are near to him, which seems to be an unrealistic behavior. Therefore, researchers introduce a self-slowing mechanism to gradually stop a pedestrian when he is approaching other pedestrians. Subsequently, the dynamic respect factor is introduced into the self-slowing mechanism based on the density of the pedestrians to make the model even more realistic. In real life situations, the respect factor of the pedestrians should be dynamic values instead of a constant value. However, when we reproduce the simulation of the dynamic respect factor, we found that the movement of the pedestrians are unrealistic because the pedestrians are lacking perception of the pedestrians in front of him. In this paper, we adopted both dynamic respect factor and dynamic angular parameter, called modified dynamic respect factor, which is dependent on the density of the pedestrians. Simulations are performed in a normal unidirectional walkway to compare the simulated pedestrians' movements produced by both models. The results obtained showed that the modified dynamic respect factor produces more realistic movement of the pedestrians which conform to the real situation. Moreover, we also found that the simulations endow the pedestrian with a self-slowing mechanism and a perception of other pedestrians in front of him.

Responses of aquatic insects to Cu and Zn in stream microcosms: understanding differences between single species tests and field responses.

PubMed

Clements, William H; Cadmus, Pete; Brinkman, Stephen F

2013-07-02

Field surveys of metal-contaminated streams suggest that some aquatic insects, particularly mayflies (Ephemeroptera) and stoneflies (Plecoptera), are highly sensitive to metals. However, results of single species toxicity tests indicate these organisms are quite tolerant, with LC50 values often several orders of magnitude greater than those obtained using standard test organisms (e.g., cladocerans and fathead minnows). Reconciling these differences is a critical research need, particularly since water quality criteria for metals are based primarily on results of single species toxicity tests. In this research we provide evidence based on community-level microcosm experiments to support the hypothesis that some aquatic insects are highly sensitive to metals. We present results of three experiments that quantified effects of Cu and Zn, alone and in combination, on stream insect communities. EC50 values, defined as the metal concentration that reduced abundance of aquatic insects by 50%, were several orders of magnitude lower than previously published values obtained from single species tests. We hypothesize that the short duration of laboratory toxicity tests and the failure to evaluate effects of metals on sensitive early life stages are the primary factors responsible for unrealistically high LC50 values in the literature. We also observed that Cu alone was significantly more toxic to aquatic insects than the combination of Cu and Zn, despite the fact that exposure concentrations represented theoretically similar toxicity levels. Our results suggest that water quality criteria for Zn were protective of most aquatic insects, whereas Cu was highly toxic to some species at concentrations near water quality criteria. Because of the functional significance of aquatic insects in stream ecosystems and their well-established importance as indicators of water quality, reconciling differences between field and laboratory responses and understanding the mechanisms responsible for variation in sensitivity among metals and metal mixtures is of critical importance.

Anticipation of the landing shock phenomenon in flight simulation

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Mcfarland, Richard E.

1987-01-01

An aircraft landing may be described as a controlled crash because a runway surface is intercepted. In a simulation model the transition from aerodynamic flight to weight on wheels involves a single computational cycle during which stiff differential equations are activated; with a significant probability these initial conditions are unrealistic. This occurs because of the finite cycle time, during which large restorative forces will accompany unrealistic initial oleo compressions. This problem was recognized a few years ago at Ames Research Center during simulation studies of a supersonic transport. The mathematical model of this vehicle severely taxed computational resources, and required a large cycle time. The ground strike problem was solved by a described technique called anticipation equations. This extensively used technique has not been previously reported. The technique of anticipating a significant event is a useful tool in the general field of discrete flight simulation. For the differential equations representing a landing gear model stiffness, rate of interception and cycle time may combine to produce an unrealistic simulation of the continuum.

Fenestral pore size in the internal elastic lamina affects transmural flow distribution in the artery wall.

PubMed

Tada, S; Tarbell, J M

2001-06-01

Interstitial flow through the subendothelial intima and media of an artery wall was simulated numerically to investigate the water flow distribution through fenestral pores which affects the wall shear stress on smooth muscle cells right beneath the internal elastic lamina (IEL). A two-dimensional analysis using the Brinkman model of porous media flow was performed. It was observed that the hydraulic permeability of the intimal layer should be much greater than that of the media in order to predict a reasonable magnitude for the pressure drop across the subendothelial intima and IEL (about 23 mostly at a 70 mm Hg luminal pressure). When Ki was set equal to the value in the media, this pressure drop was unrealistically high. Furthermore, the higher value of Ki produced a nearly uniform distribution of water flow through a simple array of fenestral pores all having the same diameters (1.2 microm), whereas when Ki was set at the value in the media, the flow distribution through fenestral pores was highly nonuniform and nonphysiologic. A deformable intima model predicted a nonuniform flow distribution at high pressure (180 mm Hg). Damage to the IEL was simulated by introducing a large fenestral pore (up to 17.8 microm) into the array. A dramatic increase in flow through the large pore was observed implying an altered fluid mechanical environment on the smooth muscle cells near the large pore which has implications for intimal hyperplasia and atherosclerosis. The model also predicted that the fluid shear stress on the bottom surface of an endothelial cell is on the order of 10 dyne/cm2, a level which can affect cell function.

Understanding the Cognitive and Affective Mechanisms that Underlie Proxy Risk Perceptions among Caregivers of Asthmatic Children.

PubMed

Shepperd, James A; Lipsey, Nikolette P; Pachur, Thorsten; Waters, Erika A

2018-07-01

Medical decisions made on behalf of another person-particularly those made by adult caregivers for their minor children-are often informed by the decision maker's beliefs about the treatment's risks and benefits. However, we know little about the cognitive and affective mechanisms influencing such "proxy" risk perceptions and about how proxy risk perceptions are related to prominent judgment phenomena. Adult caregivers of minor children with asthma ( N = 132) completed an online, cross-sectional survey assessing 1) cognitions and affects that form the basis of the availability, representativeness, and affect heuristics; 2) endorsement of the absent-exempt and the better-than-average effect; and 3) proxy perceived risk and unrealistic comparative optimism of an asthma exacerbation. We used the Pediatric Asthma Control and Communication Instrument (PACCI) to assess asthma severity. Respondents with higher scores on availability, representativeness, and negative affect indicated higher proxy risk perceptions and (for representativeness only) lower unrealistic optimism, irrespective of asthma severity. Conversely, respondents who showed a stronger display of the better-than-average effect indicated lower proxy risk perceptions but did not differ in unrealistic optimism. The absent-exempt effect was unrelated to proxy risk perceptions and unrealistic optimism. Heuristic judgment processes appear to contribute to caregivers' proxy risk perceptions of their child's asthma exacerbation risk. Moreover, the display of other, possibly erroneous, judgment phenomena is associated with lower caregiver risk perceptions. Designing interventions that target these mechanisms may help caregivers work with their children to reduce exacerbation risk.

Applying Dispersive Changes to Lagrangian Particles in Groundwater Transport Models

USGS Publications Warehouse

Konikow, Leonard F.

2010-01-01

Method-of-characteristics groundwater transport models require that changes in concentrations computed within an Eulerian framework to account for dispersion be transferred to moving particles used to simulate advective transport. A new algorithm was developed to accomplish this transfer between nodal values and advecting particles more precisely and realistically compared to currently used methods. The new method scales the changes and adjustments of particle concentrations relative to limiting bounds of concentration values determined from the population of adjacent nodal values. The method precludes unrealistic undershoot or overshoot for concentrations of individual particles. In the new method, if dispersion causes cell concentrations to decrease during a time step, those particles in the cell having the highest concentration will decrease the most, and those with the lowest concentration will decrease the least. The converse is true if dispersion is causing concentrations to increase. Furthermore, if the initial concentration on a particle is outside the range of the adjacent nodal values, it will automatically be adjusted in the direction of the acceptable range of values. The new method is inherently mass conservative. ?? US Government 2010.

Applying dispersive changes to Lagrangian particles in groundwater transport models

USGS Publications Warehouse

Konikow, Leonard F.

2010-01-01

Method-of-characteristics groundwater transport models require that changes in concentrations computed within an Eulerian framework to account for dispersion be transferred to moving particles used to simulate advective transport. A new algorithm was developed to accomplish this transfer between nodal values and advecting particles more precisely and realistically compared to currently used methods. The new method scales the changes and adjustments of particle concentrations relative to limiting bounds of concentration values determined from the population of adjacent nodal values. The method precludes unrealistic undershoot or overshoot for concentrations of individual particles. In the new method, if dispersion causes cell concentrations to decrease during a time step, those particles in the cell having the highest concentration will decrease the most, and those with the lowest concentration will decrease the least. The converse is true if dispersion is causing concentrations to increase. Furthermore, if the initial concentration on a particle is outside the range of the adjacent nodal values, it will automatically be adjusted in the direction of the acceptable range of values. The new method is inherently mass conservative.

Measured Visual Motion Sensitivity at Fixed Contrast in the Periphery and Far Periphery

DTIC Science & Technology

2017-08-01

group Soldier performance. Soldier performance depends on visual detection of enemy personnel and materiel. Vision modeling in IWARS is neither...a highly time-critical and order- dependent activity, these unrealistic characterizations of target detection time and order severely limit the...recognize that MVTs should depend on target contrast, so we selected a target design different from that used in the Monaco et al. (2007) study. Based

One-to-one midwifery.

PubMed

Farmer, E; Chipperfield, C

1996-04-01

Key elements: Problems of One-to-One midwifery developing a caseload relationships with other staff--perceived 'elitism' boundaries of care for high-risk mothers long hours isolation women's unrealistic expectations of midwife, including overdependence Solutions maintain dialogue with other professionals hospital midwives invited to join OTO midwives on community visits clarify roles and responsibilities direct referral to on-call registrar partnerships with teams peer support weekly group meeting empowering women, reducing overdependence

Physical Activity in Vietnam: Estimates and Measurement Issues

PubMed Central

Bui, Tan Van; Blizzard, Christopher Leigh; Luong, Khue Ngoc; Truong, Ngoc Le Van; Tran, Bao Quoc; Otahal, Petr; Srikanth, Velandai; Nelson, Mark Raymond; Au, Thuy Bich; Ha, Son Thai; Phung, Hai Ngoc; Tran, Mai Hoang; Callisaya, Michele; Gall, Seana

2015-01-01

Introduction Our aims were to provide the first national estimates of physical activity (PA) for Vietnam, and to investigate issues affecting their accuracy. Methods Measurements were made using the Global Physical Activity Questionnaire (GPAQ) on a nationally-representative sample of 14706 participants (46.5% males, response 64.1%) aged 25−64 years selected by multi-stage stratified cluster sampling. Results Approximately 20% of Vietnamese people had no measureable PA during a typical week, but 72.9% (men) and 69.1% (women) met WHO recommendations for PA by adults for their age. On average, 52.0 (men) and 28.0 (women) Metabolic Equivalent Task (MET)-hours/week (largely from work activities) were reported. Work and total PA were higher in rural areas and varied by season. Less than 2% of respondents provided incomplete information, but an additional one-in-six provided unrealistically high values of PA. Those responsible for reporting errors included persons from rural areas and all those with unstable work patterns. Box-Cox transformation (with an appropriate constant added) was the most successful method of reducing the influence of large values, but energy-scaled values were most strongly associated with pathophysiological outcomes. Conclusions Around seven-in-ten Vietnamese people aged 25–64 years met WHO recommendations for total PA, which was mainly from work activities and higher in rural areas. Nearly all respondents were able to report their activity using the GPAQ, but with some exaggerated values and seasonal variation in reporting. Data transformation provided plausible summary values, but energy-scaling fared best in association analyses. PMID:26485044

Evaluation of High-Performance Space Nuclear Electric Generators for Electric Propulsion Application

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Woodcock, Gordon; Kross, Dennis A. (Technical Monitor)

2002-01-01

Electric propulsion applications are enhanced by high power-to-mass ratios for their electric power sources. At multi-megawatt levels, we can expect thrust production systems to be less than 5 kg/kWe. Application of nuclear electric propulsion to human Mars missions becomes an attractive alternative to nuclear thermal propulsion if the propulsion system is less than about 10 kg/kWe. Recent references have projected megawatt-plus nuclear electric sources at specific mass values from less than 1 kg/kWe to about 5 kg/kWe. Various assumptions are made regarding power generation cycle (turbogenerator; MHD (magnetohydrodynamics)) and reactor heat source design. The present paper compares heat source and power generation options on the basis of a parametric model that emphasizes heat transfer design and realizable hardware concept. Pressure drop (important!) is included in the power cycle analysis, and MHD and turbogenerator cycles are compared. Results indicate that power source specific mass less than 5 kg/kWe is attainable, even if peak temperatures achievable are limited to 1500 K. Projections of specific mass less than 1 kg/kWe are unrealistic, even at the highest peak temperatures considered.

The burden of responsibility: duty, depression, and nervios in Andean Ecuador.

PubMed

Finerman, R

1989-01-01

Saraguro Indian women possess relatively high status in their community. Nevertheless, they experience high rates of the culturally interpreted illness nervios. This syndrome produces symptoms characteristic of stress-induced depression and is identified by Saraguros as the product of suffering and misfortune. Descriptive and quantitative interview data indicate that episodes of nervios correlate with experiences of gender role failure, and the condition is identified as a coping mechanism for excessive responsibility and unrealistic social expectation. This syndrome also appears to serve as an effective strategy for enhancing power and social status.

Variability of the Arctic Basin Oceanographic Fields

DTIC Science & Technology

1996-02-01

the model a very sophisticated turbulence closure scheme. 9. Imitation of the CO2 doubling We parameterized the " greenhouse " effect by changing the...of the Arctic Ocean. A more realistic model of the Arctic Ocean circulation was obtained, and an estimation of the impact of the greenhouse effect on... greenhouse effect is in freshening of the upper Arctic Basin. Although some shortcomings of the model still exist (an unrealistic high coefficient of

Multiple Fault Isolation in Redundant Systems

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Pattipati, Krishna R.; Patterson-Hine, Ann; Iverson, David

1997-01-01

Fault diagnosis in large-scale systems that are products of modern technology present formidable challenges to manufacturers and users. This is due to large number of failure sources in such systems and the need to quickly isolate and rectify failures with minimal down time. In addition, for fault-tolerant systems and systems with infrequent opportunity for maintenance (e.g., Hubble telescope, space station), the assumption of at most a single fault in the system is unrealistic. In this project, we have developed novel block and sequential diagnostic strategies to isolate multiple faults in the shortest possible time without making the unrealistic single fault assumption.

Multiple Fault Isolation in Redundant Systems

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Pattipati, Krishna R.

1997-01-01

Fault diagnosis in large-scale systems that are products of modem technology present formidable challenges to manufacturers and users. This is due to large number of failure sources in such systems and the need to quickly isolate and rectify failures with minimal down time. In addition, for fault-tolerant systems and systems with infrequent opportunity for maintenance (e.g., Hubble telescope, space station), the assumption of at most a single fault in the system is unrealistic. In this project, we have developed novel block and sequential diagnostic strategies to isolate multiple faults in the shortest possible time without making the unrealistic single fault assumption.

Fine-particle pH for Beijing winter haze as inferred from different thermodynamic equilibrium models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Song, Shaojie; Gao, Meng; Xu, Weiqi; Shao, Jingyuan; Shi, Guoliang; Wang, Shuxiao; Wang, Yuxuan; Sun, Yele; McElroy, Michael B.

2018-05-01

pH is an important property of aerosol particles but is difficult to measure directly. Several studies have estimated the pH values for fine particles in northern China winter haze using thermodynamic models (i.e., E-AIM and ISORROPIA) and ambient measurements. The reported pH values differ widely, ranging from close to 0 (highly acidic) to as high as 7 (neutral). In order to understand the reason for this discrepancy, we calculated pH values using these models with different assumptions with regard to model inputs and particle phase states. We find that the large discrepancy is due primarily to differences in the model assumptions adopted in previous studies. Calculations using only aerosol-phase composition as inputs (i.e., reverse mode) are sensitive to the measurement errors of ionic species, and inferred pH values exhibit a bimodal distribution, with peaks between -2 and 2 and between 7 and 10, depending on whether anions or cations are in excess. Calculations using total (gas plus aerosol phase) measurements as inputs (i.e., forward mode) are affected much less by these measurement errors. In future studies, the reverse mode should be avoided whereas the forward mode should be used. Forward-mode calculations in this and previous studies collectively indicate a moderately acidic condition (pH from about 4 to about 5) for fine particles in northern China winter haze, indicating further that ammonia plays an important role in determining this property. The assumed particle phase state, either stable (solid plus liquid) or metastable (only liquid), does not significantly impact pH predictions. The unrealistic pH values of about 7 in a few previous studies (using the standard ISORROPIA model and stable state assumption) resulted from coding errors in the model, which have been identified and fixed in this study.

Transmutation of singularities and zeros in graded index optical instruments: a methodology for designing practical devices.

PubMed

Hooper, I R; Philbin, T G

2013-12-30

We describe a design methodology for modifying the refractive index profile of graded-index optical instruments that incorporate singularities or zeros in their refractive index. The process maintains the device performance whilst resulting in graded profiles that are all-dielectric, do not require materials with unrealistic values, and that are impedance matched to the bounding medium. This is achieved by transmuting the singularities (or zeros) using the formalism of transformation optics, but with an additional boundary condition requiring the gradient of the co-ordinate transformation be continuous. This additional boundary condition ensures that the device is impedance matched to the bounding medium when the spatially varying permittivity and permeability profiles are scaled to realizable values. We demonstrate the method in some detail for an Eaton lens, before describing the profiles for an "invisible disc" and "multipole" lenses.

Bluffing promotes overconfidence on social networks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, Kun; Cong, Rui; Wu, Te; Wang, Long

2014-06-01

The overconfidence, a well-established bias, in fact leads to unrealistic expectations or faulty assessment. So it remains puzzling why such psychology of self-deception is stabilized in human society. To investigate this problem, we draw lessons from evolutionary game theory which provides a theoretical framework to address the subtleties of cooperation among selfish individuals. Here we propose a spatial resource competition model showing that, counter-intuitively, moderate values rather than large values of resource-to-cost ratio boost overconfidence level most effectively. In contrast to theoretical results in infinite well-mixed populations, network plays a role both as a ``catalyst'' and a ``depressant'' in the spreading of overconfidence, especially when resource-to-cost ratio is in a certain range. Moreover, when bluffing is taken into consideration, overconfidence evolves to a higher level to counteract its detrimental effect, which may well explain the prosperity of this ``erroneous'' psychology.

SAS program for quantitative stratigraphic correlation by principal components

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hohn, M.E.

1985-01-01

A SAS program is presented which constructs a composite section of stratigraphic events through principal components analysis. The variables in the analysis are stratigraphic sections and the observational units are range limits of taxa. The program standardizes data in each section, extracts eigenvectors, estimates missing range limits, and computes the composite section from scores of events on the first principal component. Provided is an option of several types of diagnostic plots; these help one to determine conservative range limits or unrealistic estimates of missing values. Inspection of the graphs and eigenvalues allow one to evaluate goodness of fit between the composite and measured data. The program is extended easily to the creation of a rank-order composite. ?? 1985.

Physician Payment Methods and the Patient-Centered Medical Home: Comment on "A Troubled Asset Relief Program for the Patient-Centered Medical Home".

PubMed

Quinn, Kevin

This commentary analyzes the patient-centered medical home (PCMH) model within a framework of the 8 basic payment methods in health care. PCMHs are firmly within the fee-for-service tradition. Changes to the process and structure of the Resource Based Relative Value Scale, which underlies almost all physician fee schedules, could make PCMHs more financially viable. Of the alternative payment methods being considered, shared savings models are unlikely to transform medical practice whereas capitation models place unrealistic expectations on providers to accept epidemiological risk. Episode payment may strike a feasible balance for PCMHs, with newly available episode definitions presenting opportunities not previously available.

Team reasoning and collective rationality: piercing the veil of obviousness.

PubMed

Colman, Andrew M; Pulford, Briony D; Rose, Jo

2008-06-01

The experiments reported in our target article provide strong evidence of collective utility maximization, and the findings suggest that team reasoning should now be included among the social value orientations used in cognitive and social psychology. Evidential decision theory offers a possible alternative explanation for our results but fails to predict intuitively compelling strategy choices in simple games with asymmetric team-reasoning outcomes. Although many of our experimental participants evidently used team reasoning, some appear to have ignored the other players' expected strategy choices and used lower-level, nonstrategic forms of reasoning. Standard payoff transformations cannot explain the experimental findings, nor team reasoning in general, without an unrealistic assumption that players invariably reason nonstrategically.

Are Your Patients Burning Out?

PubMed Central

Vachon, M. L. S.

1982-01-01

The term burnout came into the literature in the 1970s. Since then it has become a popularized and misunderstood concept. In this article burnout is seen to be an interaction between idealistically high personal expectations and a willingness to sacrifice personal needs to the workplace, with unrealistic expectations within the work environment. Physical, psychological and occupational symptoms accompany this syndrome, which must be differentiated from clinical depression. Suggestions for treatment include changes at both the personal and organizational level. PMID:21286517

The atmospheric boundary layer in the CSIRO global climate model: simulations versus observations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Garratt, J. R.; Rotstayn, L. D.; Krummel, P. B.

2002-07-01

A 5-year simulation of the atmospheric boundary layer in the CSIRO global climate model (GCM) is compared with detailed boundary-layer observations at six locations, two over the ocean and four over land. Field observations, in the form of surface fluxes and vertical profiles of wind, temperature and humidity, are generally available for each hour over periods of one month or more in a single year. GCM simulations are for specific months corresponding to the field observations, for each of five years. At three of the four land sites (two in Australia, one in south-eastern France), modelled rainfall was close to the observed climatological values, but was significantly in deficit at the fourth (Kansas, USA). Observed rainfall during the field expeditions was close to climatology at all four sites. At the Kansas site, modelled screen temperatures (Tsc), diurnal temperature amplitude and sensible heat flux (H) were significantly higher than observed, with modelled evaporation (E) much lower. At the other three land sites, there is excellent correspondence between the diurnal amplitude and phase and absolute values of each variable (Tsc, H, E). Mean monthly vertical profiles for specific times of the day show strong similarities: over land and ocean in vertical shape and absolute values of variables, and in the mixed-layer and nocturnal-inversion depths (over land) and the height of the elevated inversion or height of the cloud layer (over the sea). Of special interest is the presence climatologically of early morning humidity inversions related to dewfall and of nocturnal low-level jets; such features are found in the GCM simulations. The observed day-to-day variability in vertical structure is captured well in the model for most sites, including, over a whole month, the temperature range at all levels in the boundary layer, and the mix of shallow and deep mixed layers. Weaknesses or unrealistic structure include the following, (a) unrealistic model mixed-layer temperature profiles over land in clear skies, related to use of a simple local first-order turbulence closure, (b) a tendency to overpredict cloud liquid water near the surface.

A 3-D ecosystem model in the Pacific Ocean and its simulations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Xu, Y.; Ba, Q.

2011-12-01

A simple 3-D ecosystem model with nutrient, phytoplankton, zooplankton and detritus is coupled into the basinwide ocean general circulation (OGCM) of the Pacific Ocean that has been examined by the passive tracer such as tritium. The model was integrated for 500 years under the forcing of climatological monthly mean fields. The model generates similar distribution patterns of ecosystem variables to the estimates based on satellite-derived chlorophyll maps by vertically generalized production model with low water-column NPP values in the subtropical region and high values in the subarctic region and equatorial upwelling region. But the area and strength of oligotrophic gyre is much larger than that indicated in the observations. Compared with the observations, seasonal variations of surface chlorophyll concentrations and top 200-m average zooplankton biomass in the mid-high latitude regions are well simulated in the model. Because of the restoring term near the northern boundary used in the model, a false phytoplankton bloom can occur nearby 50N during winter time. An unrealistic maximum value in the vertical profile of chlorophyll near ocean weather station Papa is generated by our model. In terms of modification of model structure and sensitivity test of the associated parameters, the simulated results can be well improved. Although the division of nutrient into nitrate and ammonium and inclusion of DON in the model can alleviate the low-NPP problem in the subtropical region, modification of the sinking rate and decomposition rate of detritus in the model can be more effective. Introduction of the influence of mixed layer on the ecosystem process and modification of restraint of nutrients near the northern boundary can overcome the shortcomings of simulation of both spring bloom near 50N and vertical profile of chlorophyll at Papa to some extent.

Preparation and characterization of nickel-spiked freshwater sediments for toxicity tests: toward more environmentally realistic nickel partitioning

USGS Publications Warehouse

Brumbaugh, William G.; Besser, John M.; Ingersoll, Christopher G.; May, Thomas W.; Ivey, Chris D.; Schlekat, Christian E.; Garman, Emily R.

2013-01-01

Two spiking methods were compared and nickel (Ni) partitioning was evaluated during a series of toxicity tests with 8 different freshwater sediments having a range of physicochemical characteristics. A 2-step spiking approach with immediate pH adjustment by addition of NaOH at a 2:1 molar ratio to the spiked Ni was effective in producing consistent pH and other chemical characteristics across a range of Ni spiking levels. When Ni was spiked into sediment having a high acid-volatile sulfide and organic matter content, a total equilibration period of at least 10 wk was needed to stabilize Ni partitioning. However, highest spiking levels evidently exceeded sediment binding capacities; therefore, a 7-d equilibration in toxicity test chambers and 8 volume-additions/d of aerobic overlying water were used to avoid unrealistic Ni partitioning during toxicity testing. The 7-d pretest equilibration allowed excess spiked Ni and other ions from pH adjustment to diffuse from sediment porewater and promoted development of an environmentally relevant, 0.5- to 1-cm oxic/suboxic sediment layer in the test chambers. Among the 8 different spiked sediments, the logarithm of sediment/porewater distribution coefficient values (log Kd) for Ni during the toxicity tests ranged from 3.5 to 4.5. These Kd values closely match the range of values reported for various field Ni-contaminated sediments, indicating that testing conditions with our spiked sediments were environmentally realistic.

A comment on: `TitaniQ under pressure: the effect of pressure and temperature on the solubility of Ti in quartz', by Jay B. Thomas, E. Bruce Watson, Frank S. Spear, Philip T. Shemella, Saroj K. Nayak and Antonio Lanzirotti

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wilson, Colin J. N.; Seward, Terry M.; Allan, Aidan S. R.; Charlier, Bruce L. A.; Bello, Léa

2012-08-01

Trace concentrations of Ti in quartz are used to indicate the pressure and temperature conditions of crystallization in the `TitaniQ' geothermobarometer of Thomas et al. (Contrib Miner Petrol 160:743-759, 2010). It utilises the partitioning of Ti into quartz as an indicator of the pressures and/or temperatures of crystal growth. For a given value of TiO2 activity in the system, if temperatures are inferred to ±20 °C, pressure is constrained to ±1 kbar and vice versa. There are significant contrasts, however, between the conclusions from TitaniQ and those for natural quartz (as well as other mineral phases) in volcanic rocks. Application of the TitaniQ model to quartz from the 27 ka Oruanui and 760 ka Bishop high-silica rhyolites, where the values of T, P and TiO2 activity are constrained by other means (Fe-Ti oxide equilibria, melt inclusion entrapment pressures in gas-saturated melts, melt and amphibole compositions), yields inconsistent results. If realistic values are given to any two of these three parameters, then the value of the third is wholly unrealistic. The model yields growth temperatures at or below the granite solidus, pressures in the lower crust or upper mantle, or TiO2 activities inconsistent with the mineralogical and chemical compositions of the magmas. CL imagery and measurements of Ti (and other elements) in quartz are of great value in showing the growth histories and changes in conditions experienced by crystals, but direct linkages to P, T conditions during crystal growth cannot be achieved.

Validation of SMAP Root Zone Soil Moisture Estimates with Improved Cosmic-Ray Neutron Probe Observations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Babaeian, E.; Tuller, M.; Sadeghi, M.; Franz, T.; Jones, S. B.

2017-12-01

Soil Moisture Active Passive (SMAP) soil moisture products are commonly validated based on point-scale reference measurements, despite the exorbitant spatial scale disparity. The difference between the measurement depth of point-scale sensors and the penetration depth of SMAP further complicates evaluation efforts. Cosmic-ray neutron probes (CRNP) with an approximately 500-m radius footprint provide an appealing alternative for SMAP validation. This study is focused on the validation of SMAP level-4 root zone soil moisture products with 9-km spatial resolution based on CRNP observations at twenty U.S. reference sites with climatic conditions ranging from semiarid to humid. The CRNP measurements are often biased by additional hydrogen sources such as surface water, atmospheric vapor, or mineral lattice water, which sometimes yield unrealistic moisture values in excess of the soil water storage capacity. These effects were removed during CRNP data analysis. Comparison of SMAP data with corrected CRNP observations revealed a very high correlation for most of the investigated sites, which opens new avenues for validation of current and future satellite soil moisture products.

Psychosocial presentation of revisional LAGB patients: a qualitative study.

PubMed

Janse Van Vuuren, M; Strodl, E; White, K M; Lockie, P

2015-10-01

This qualitative study offers insight into the experiences, expectations, perceptions and beliefs that may lead to laparoscopic adjustable gastric band patients' failure to achieve expected weight loss and seek revisional bariatric surgery. The 23 participants from two sites were interviewed and data were analysed from a grounded theory methodology in order to build a causal model. Analysis of participants' reports identified 'unrealistic expectations of the LAGB' as the core category. Additionally, the restriction of the band had a negative impact on participants' social interactions, leading to feelings of deprivation and, thus, to a desire for reward from food choices and consequently an increase of consumption of high-calorie-dense foods. These foods were chosen because of their specific texture or ability to provide reward. The resulting increase in weight or failure to achieve excess weight loss, led to feelings of shame and loneliness and emotional eating resulting in increased the consumption of rewarding foods. Thus, identifying unrealistic expectations of laparoscopic adjustable gastric band (LAGB) and emotional eating behaviours are important in those who are present initially for primary bariatric and revisional bariatric surgery, as they may contribute specifically to these patients' weight regain and consequent failure to achieve excess weight loss. © 2015 World Obesity.

Expert assessment concludes negative emissions scenarios may not deliver

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vaughan, Naomi E.; Gough, Clair

2016-09-01

Many integrated assessment models (IAMs) rely on the availability and extensive use of biomass energy with carbon capture and storage (BECCS) to deliver emissions scenarios consistent with limiting climate change to below 2 °C average temperature rise. BECCS has the potential to remove carbon dioxide (CO2) from the atmosphere, delivering ‘negative emissions’. The deployment of BECCS at the scale assumed in IAM scenarios is highly uncertain: biomass energy is commonly used but not at such a scale, and CCS technologies have been demonstrated but not commercially established. Here we present the results of an expert elicitation process that explores the explicit and implicit assumptions underpinning the feasibility of BECCS in IAM scenarios. Our results show that the assumptions are considered realistic regarding technical aspects of CCS but unrealistic regarding the extent of bioenergy deployment, and development of adequate societal support and governance structures for BECCS. The results highlight concerns about the assumed magnitude of carbon dioxide removal achieved across a full BECCS supply chain, with the greatest uncertainty in bioenergy production. Unrealistically optimistic assumptions regarding the future availability of BECCS in IAM scenarios could lead to the overshoot of critical warming limits and have significant impacts on near-term mitigation options.

Physical properties of the Saturn's rings with the opposition effect.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Deau, E.

2012-04-01

We use the Cassini/ISS images from the early prime mission to build lit phase curves data from 0.01 degrees to 155 degrees at a solar elevation of 23-20 degrees. All the main rings exhibit on their phase curves a prominent surge at small phase angles. We use various opposition effect models to explain the opposition surge of the rings, including the coherent backscattering, the shadow hiding and a combination of the two (Kawata & Irvine 1974 In: Exploration of the planetary system Book p441; Shkuratov et al. 1999, Icarus, 141, p132; Poulet et al. 2002 Icarus, 158, p224 ; Hapke et al. 2002 Icarus, 157, p523). Our results show that either the coherent backscattering alone or a combination of the shadow hiding and the coherent backscattering can explain the observations providing physical properties (albedo, filling factor, grain size) consistent with previous other studies. However, they disagree with the most recent work of Degiorgio et al. 2011 (EPSC-DPS Abstract #732). We think that their attempt to use the shadow hiding alone lead to unrealistic values of the filling factor of the ring particles layer. For example they found 10^-3 in one of the thickest regions of the C ring (a plateau at R=88439km with an optical depth tau=0.22). We totally disagree with their conclusions stating that these values are consistent for the C ring plateaux and did not found any references that are consistent with theirs, as they claimed. We believe that their unrealistic values originated from the assumptions of the models they used (Kawata & Irvine and Hapke), which are basically an uniform size distribution. Any model using an uniform size distribution force the medium to be very diluted to reproduce the opposition surge. Our modeling that uses a power law size distribution provides realistic values. All these results have been already published previously (http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2007PhDT........25D) and are summarized in a forthcoming manuscript submitted to publication so we recommend to Degiorgio et al. to either cite our work properly or at least try to produce an original work. This research was carried out at the Jet Propulsion Laboratory, California Institute of Technology, under contract with NASA. Copyright 2012 California Institute of Technology. Government sponsorship is acknowledged.

Open path measurements of carbon dioxide and water vapor under foggy conditions - technical problems, approaches and effects on flux measurements and budget calculations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

El-Madany, T.; Griessbaum, F.; Maneke, F.; Chu, H.-S.; Wu, C.-C.; Chang, S. C.; Hsia, Y.-J.; Juang, J.-Y.; Klemm, O.

2010-07-01

To estimate carbon dioxide or water vapor fluxes with the Eddy Covariance method high quality data sets are necessary. Under foggy conditions this is challenging, because open path measurements are influenced by the water droplets that cross the measurement path as well as deposit on the windows of the optical path. For the LI-7500 the deposition of droplets on the window results in an intensity reduction of the infrared beam. To keep the strength of the infrared beam under these conditions, the energy is increased. A measure for the increased energy is given by the AGC value (Automatic Gain Control). Up to a AGC threshold value of 70 % the data from the LI-7500 is assumed to be of good quality (personal communication with LICOR). Due to fog deposition on the windows, the AGC value rises above 70 % and stays there until the fog disappears and the water on the windows evaporates. To gain better data quality during foggy conditions, a blower system was developed that blows the deposited water droplets off the window. The system is triggered if the AGC value rises above 70 %. Then a pneumatic jack will lift the blower system towards the LI-7500 and the water-droplets get blown off with compressed air. After the AGC value drops below 70 %, the pneumatic jack will move back to the idle position. Using this technique showed that not only the fog droplets on the window causing significant problems to the measurement, but also the fog droplets inside the measurement path. Under conditions of very dense fog the measured values of carbon dioxide can get unrealistically high, and for water vapor, negative values can be observed even if the AGC value is below 70 %. The negative values can be explained by the scatter of the infrared beam on the fog droplets. It is assumed, that different types of fog droplet spectra are causing the various error patterns observed. For high quality flux measurements, not only the AGC threshold value of 70 % is important, but also the fluctuation of the AGC value in a flux averaging interval. Such AGC value fluctuations can cause severe jumps in the concentration measurements that can hardly be corrected for. Results of fog effects on the LI-7500 performance and its consequences for flux measurements and budget calculations will be presented.

Occupational aspirations of black South African adolescents.

PubMed

Watson, M B; Foxcroft, C D; Horn, M A; Stead, G B

1997-04-01

The present study provides a description of the occupational aspirations of 216 black high school students in a special program by the amount of training required (status) and Holland's 1973 typology as well as by gender, age, socioeconomic status, knowledge of self, and occupational knowledge. Analysis indicates that most adolescents aspire to Social and Investigative occupations, and occupations with a high status. Most of this select sample displayed low self- and occupational knowledge. Aspirations appear unrealistic in terms of trends within the labor market, but might be more realistic with effective and relevant guidance programs in schools.

Statistical Approaches for Spatiotemporal Prediction of Low Flows

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fangmann, A.; Haberlandt, U.

2017-12-01

An adequate assessment of regional climate change impacts on streamflow requires the integration of various sources of information and modeling approaches. This study proposes simple statistical tools for inclusion into model ensembles, which are fast and straightforward in their application, yet able to yield accurate streamflow predictions in time and space. Target variables for all approaches are annual low flow indices derived from a data set of 51 records of average daily discharge for northwestern Germany. The models require input of climatic data in the form of meteorological drought indices, derived from observed daily climatic variables, averaged over the streamflow gauges' catchments areas. Four different modeling approaches are analyzed. Basis for all pose multiple linear regression models that estimate low flows as a function of a set of meteorological indices and/or physiographic and climatic catchment descriptors. For the first method, individual regression models are fitted at each station, predicting annual low flow values from a set of annual meteorological indices, which are subsequently regionalized using a set of catchment characteristics. The second method combines temporal and spatial prediction within a single panel data regression model, allowing estimation of annual low flow values from input of both annual meteorological indices and catchment descriptors. The third and fourth methods represent non-stationary low flow frequency analyses and require fitting of regional distribution functions. Method three is subject to a spatiotemporal prediction of an index value, method four to estimation of L-moments that adapt the regional frequency distribution to the at-site conditions. The results show that method two outperforms successive prediction in time and space. Method three also shows a high performance in the near future period, but since it relies on a stationary distribution, its application for prediction of far future changes may be problematic. Spatiotemporal prediction of L-moments appeared highly uncertain for higher-order moments resulting in unrealistic future low flow values. All in all, the results promote an inclusion of simple statistical methods in climate change impact assessment.

Strategies to Improve the Accuracy of Mars-GRAM Sensitivity Studies at Large Optical Depths

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Justh, Hilary L.; Justus, Carl G.; Badger, Andrew M.

2009-01-01

The Mars Global Reference Atmospheric Model (Mars-GRAM) is an engineering-level atmospheric model widely used for diverse mission applications. Mars-GRAM s perturbation modeling capability is commonly used, in a Monte-Carlo mode, to perform high fidelity engineering end-to-end simulations for entry, descent, and landing (EDL). It has been discovered during the Mars Science Laboratory (MSL) site selection process that Mars-GRAM when used for sensitivity studies for MapYear=0 and large optical depth values such as tau=3 is less than realistic. A comparison study between Mars atmospheric density estimates from Mars- GRAM and measurements by Mars Global Surveyor (MGS) has been undertaken for locations of varying latitudes, Ls, and LTST on Mars. The preliminary results from this study have validated the Thermal Emission Spectrometer (TES) limb data. From the surface to 80 km altitude, Mars- GRAM is based on the NASA Ames Mars General Circulation Model (MGCM). MGCM results that were used for Mars-GRAM with MapYear=0 were from a MGCM run with a fixed value of tau=3 for the entire year at all locations. Unrealistic energy absorption by uniform atmospheric dust leads to an unrealistic thermal energy balance on the polar caps. The outcome is an inaccurate cycle of condensation/sublimation of the polar caps and, as a consequence, an inaccurate cycle of total atmospheric mass and global-average surface pressure. Under an assumption of unchanged temperature profile and hydrostatic equilibrium, a given percentage change in surface pressure would produce a corresponding percentage change in density at all altitudes. Consequently, the final result of a change in surface pressure is an imprecise atmospheric density at all altitudes. To solve this pressure-density problem, a density factor value was determined for tau=.3, 1 and 3 that will adjust the input values of MGCM MapYear 0 pressure and density to achieve a better match of Mars-GRAM MapYear=0 with MapYears 1 and 2 MGCM output at comparable dust loading. Currently, these density factors are fixed values for all latitudes and Ls. Results will be presented of the work underway to derive better multipliers by including possible variation with latitude and/or Ls. This is achieved by comparison of Mars-GRAM MapYear=0 output with TES limb data. The addition of these density factors to Mars-GRAM will improve the results of the sensitivity studies done for large optical depths. Answers may also be provided to the issues raised in a recent study by Desai(2008). Desai has shown that the actual landing sites of Mars Pathfinder, the Mars Exploration Rovers and the Phoenix Mars Lander have been further downrange than predicted by models prior to landing. Desai s reconstruction of their entries into the Martian atmosphere showed that the models consistently predicted higher densities than those found upon EDL. The solution of this problem would be important to the Mars Program since future exploration of Mars by landers and rovers will require more accurate landing capabilities, especially for the proposed Mars Sample Return mission.

Impact of audio-visual storytelling in simulation learning experiences of undergraduate nursing students.

PubMed

Johnston, Sandra; Parker, Christina N; Fox, Amanda

2017-09-01

Use of high fidelity simulation has become increasingly popular in nursing education to the extent that it is now an integral component of most nursing programs. Anecdotal evidence suggests that students have difficulty engaging with simulation manikins due to their unrealistic appearance. Introduction of the manikin as a 'real patient' with the use of an audio-visual narrative may engage students in the simulated learning experience and impact on their learning. A paucity of literature currently exists on the use of audio-visual narratives to enhance simulated learning experiences. This study aimed to determine if viewing an audio-visual narrative during a simulation pre-brief altered undergraduate nursing student perceptions of the learning experience. A quasi-experimental post-test design was utilised. A convenience sample of final year baccalaureate nursing students at a large metropolitan university. Participants completed a modified version of the Student Satisfaction with Simulation Experiences survey. This 12-item questionnaire contained questions relating to the ability to transfer skills learned in simulation to the real clinical world, the realism of the simulation and the overall value of the learning experience. Descriptive statistics were used to summarise demographic information. Two tailed, independent group t-tests were used to determine statistical differences within the categories. Findings indicated that students reported high levels of value, realism and transferability in relation to the viewing of an audio-visual narrative. Statistically significant results (t=2.38, p<0.02) were evident in the subscale of transferability of learning from simulation to clinical practice. The subgroups of age and gender although not significant indicated some interesting results. High satisfaction with simulation was indicated by all students in relation to value and realism. There was a significant finding in relation to transferability on knowledge and this is vital to quality educational outcomes. Copyright © 2017. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

Holocene climate variability revealed by oxygen isotope analysis of Sphagnum cellulose from Walton Moss, northern England

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Daley, T. J.; Barber, K. E.; Street-Perrott, F. A.; Loader, N. J.; Marshall, J. D.; Crowley, S. F.; Fisher, E. H.

2010-07-01

Stable isotope analyses of Sphagnum alpha-cellulose, precipitation and bog water from three sites across northwestern Europe (Raheenmore, Ireland, Walton Moss, northern England and Dosenmoor, northern Germany) over a total period of 26 months were used to investigate the nature of the climatic signal recorded by Sphagnum moss. The δ18O values of modern alpha-cellulose tracked precipitation more closely than bog water, with a mean isotopic fractionation factor αcellulose-precipitation of 1.0274 ± 0.001 (1 σ) (≈27‰). Sub-samples of isolated Sphagnum alpha-cellulose were subsequently analysed from core WLM22, Walton Moss, northern England yielding a Sphagnum-specific isotope record spanning the last 4300 years. The palaeo-record, calibrated using the modern data, provides evidence for large amplitude variations in the estimated oxygen isotope composition of precipitation during the mid- to late Holocene. Estimates of palaeotemperature change derived from statistical relationships between modern surface air temperatures and δ18O precipitation values for the British Isles give unrealistically large variation in comparison to proxies from other archives. We conclude that use of such relationships to calibrate mid-latitude palaeo-data must be undertaken with caution. The δ18O record from Sphagnum cellulose was highly correlated with a palaeoecologically-derived index of bog surface wetness (BSW), suggesting a common climatic driver.

Inelastic column behavior

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Duberg, John E; Wilder, Thomas W , III

1952-01-01

The significant findings of a theoretical study of column behavior in the plastic stress range are presented. When the behavior of a straight column is regarded as the limiting behavior of an imperfect column as the initial imperfection (lack of straightness) approaches zero, the departure from the straight configuration occurs at the tangent-modulus load. Without such a concept of the behavior of a straight column, one is led to the unrealistic conclusion that lateral deflection of the column can begin at any load between the tangent-modulus value and the Euler load, based on the original elastic modulus. A family of curves showing load against lateral deflection is presented for idealized h-section columns of various lengths and of various materials that have a systematic variation of their stress-strain curves.

Tight finite-key analysis for quantum cryptography

PubMed Central

Tomamichel, Marco; Lim, Charles Ci Wen; Gisin, Nicolas; Renner, Renato

2012-01-01

Despite enormous theoretical and experimental progress in quantum cryptography, the security of most current implementations of quantum key distribution is still not rigorously established. One significant problem is that the security of the final key strongly depends on the number, M, of signals exchanged between the legitimate parties. Yet, existing security proofs are often only valid asymptotically, for unrealistically large values of M. Another challenge is that most security proofs are very sensitive to small differences between the physical devices used by the protocol and the theoretical model used to describe them. Here we show that these gaps between theory and experiment can be simultaneously overcome by using a recently developed proof technique based on the uncertainty relation for smooth entropies. PMID:22252558

Tight finite-key analysis for quantum cryptography.

PubMed

Tomamichel, Marco; Lim, Charles Ci Wen; Gisin, Nicolas; Renner, Renato

2012-01-17

Despite enormous theoretical and experimental progress in quantum cryptography, the security of most current implementations of quantum key distribution is still not rigorously established. One significant problem is that the security of the final key strongly depends on the number, M, of signals exchanged between the legitimate parties. Yet, existing security proofs are often only valid asymptotically, for unrealistically large values of M. Another challenge is that most security proofs are very sensitive to small differences between the physical devices used by the protocol and the theoretical model used to describe them. Here we show that these gaps between theory and experiment can be simultaneously overcome by using a recently developed proof technique based on the uncertainty relation for smooth entropies.

Impact of the Messinian Salinity Crisis on Black Sea hydrology—Insights from hydrogen isotopes analysis on biomarkers

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vasiliev, Iuliana; Reichart, Gert-Jan; Krijgsman, Wout

2013-01-01

The Messinian Salinity Crisis (5.96-5.33 Ma ago) was a dramatic oceanographic event, when evaporites kilometers thick precipitated in a desiccating Mediterranean basin, trapping more than 5% of the world's oceanic salt. Hydrological changes in the adjacent Black Sea and water exchange with the Mediterranean region are crucial, but poorly understood factors, influencing Messinian evaporite formation. Here, we present compound specific hydrogen isotope (δD) data from Messinian Black Sea sedimentary rocks that show a rapid change to heavy waters at 5.8 Ma, when major glaciations occurred. At the same time, highly depleted δD values of long chain n-alkanes derived from plant waxes indicate that fresh, river transported water originated from colder northern latitudes. The δD values of alkenones, biosynthesized by haptophyte algae, show an unprecedented increase of 60‰ within ˜100 kyr. The corresponding rapid change to +110‰ for δD of the Black Sea waters seem unrealistic, being heavier than anywhere in the present day oceans. Regardless of the applied relation between the δD values of the alkenones and δD of the waters where they were produced, the 60‰ enrichment in the δD values of alkenones indicates strongly enhanced evaporitic conditions. Still, the relative distribution of the alkenones implies in-situ growth and reproduction of haptophyte algae, requiring sustained marine conditions in the Black Sea up to 5.6 Ma. This indicates that Mediterranean-Black Sea connectivity persisted during the first MSC phase when gypsum precipitated in the Mediterranean basin. When the Black Sea became isolated, at the peak of the MSC (˜5.6 Ma), it had a strongly negative hydrological budget and rapidly desiccated due to excess evaporation.

Unrealistic Optimism: East and West?

PubMed Central

Joshi, Mary Sissons; Carter, Wakefield

2013-01-01

Following Weinstein’s (1980) pioneering work many studies established that people have an optimistic bias concerning future life events. At first, the bulk of research was conducted using populations in North America and Northern Europe, the optimistic bias was thought of as universal, and little attention was paid to cultural context. However, construing unrealistic optimism as a form of self-enhancement, some researchers noted that it was far less common in East Asian cultures. The current study extends enquiry to a different non-Western culture. Two hundred and eighty seven middle aged and middle income participants (200 in India, 87 in England) rated 11 positive and 11 negative events in terms of the chances of each event occurring in “their own life,” and the chances of each event occurring in the lives of “people like them.” Comparative optimism was shown for bad events, with Indian participants showing higher levels of optimism than English participants. The position regarding comparative optimism for good events was more complex. In India those of higher socioeconomic status (SES) were optimistic, while those of lower SES were on average pessimistic. Overall, English participants showed neither optimism nor pessimism for good events. The results, whose clinical relevance is discussed, suggest that the expression of unrealistic optimism is shaped by an interplay of culture and socioeconomic circumstance. PMID:23407689

The Value of Decision Analytical Modeling in Surgical Research: An Example of Laparoscopic Versus Open Distal Pancreatectomy.

PubMed

Tax, Casper; Govaert, Paulien H M; Stommel, Martijn W J; Besselink, Marc G H; Gooszen, Hein G; Rovers, Maroeska M

2017-11-02

To illustrate how decision modeling may identify relevant uncertainty and can preclude or identify areas of future research in surgery. To optimize use of research resources, a tool is needed that assists in identifying relevant uncertainties and the added value of reducing these uncertainties. The clinical pathway for laparoscopic distal pancreatectomy (LDP) versus open (ODP) for nonmalignant lesions was modeled in a decision tree. Cost-effectiveness based on complications, hospital stay, costs, quality of life, and survival was analyzed. The effect of existing uncertainty on the cost-effectiveness was addressed, as well as the expected value of eliminating uncertainties. Based on 29 nonrandomized studies (3.701 patients) the model shows that LDP is more cost-effective compared with ODP. Scenarios in which LDP does not outperform ODP for cost-effectiveness seem unrealistic, e.g., a 30-day mortality rate of 1.79 times higher after LDP as compared with ODP, conversion in 62.2%, surgically repair of incisional hernias in 21% after LDP, or an average 2.3 days longer hospital stay after LDP than after ODP. Taking all uncertainty into account, LDP remained more cost-effective. Minimizing these uncertainties did not change the outcome. The results show how decision analytical modeling can help to identify relevant uncertainty and guide decisions for future research in surgery. Based on the current available evidence, a randomized clinical trial on complications, hospital stay, costs, quality of life, and survival is highly unlikely to change the conclusion that LDP is more cost-effective than ODP.

Debunking the Myth of Value-Neutral Virginity: Toward Truth in Scientific Advertising

PubMed Central

Mandel, David R.; Tetlock, Philip E.

2016-01-01

The scientific community often portrays science as a value-neutral enterprise that crisply demarcates facts from personal value judgments. We argue that this depiction is unrealistic and important to correct because science serves an important knowledge generation function in all modern societies. Policymakers often turn to scientists for sound advice, and it is important for the wellbeing of societies that science delivers. Nevertheless, scientists are human beings and human beings find it difficult to separate the epistemic functions of their judgments (accuracy) from the social-economic functions (from career advancement to promoting moral-political causes that “feel self-evidently right”). Drawing on a pluralistic social functionalist framework that identifies five functionalist mindsets—people as intuitive scientists, economists, politicians, prosecutors, and theologians—we consider how these mindsets are likely to be expressed in the conduct of scientists. We also explore how the context of policymaker advising is likely to activate or de-activate scientists’ social functionalist mindsets. For instance, opportunities to advise policymakers can tempt scientists to promote their ideological beliefs and values, even if advising also brings with it additional accountability pressures. We end prescriptively with an appeal to scientists to be more circumspect in characterizing their objectivity and honesty and to reject idealized representations of scientific behavior that inaccurately portray scientists as value-neutral virgins. PMID:27064318

Debunking the Myth of Value-Neutral Virginity: Toward Truth in Scientific Advertising.

PubMed

Mandel, David R; Tetlock, Philip E

2016-01-01

The scientific community often portrays science as a value-neutral enterprise that crisply demarcates facts from personal value judgments. We argue that this depiction is unrealistic and important to correct because science serves an important knowledge generation function in all modern societies. Policymakers often turn to scientists for sound advice, and it is important for the wellbeing of societies that science delivers. Nevertheless, scientists are human beings and human beings find it difficult to separate the epistemic functions of their judgments (accuracy) from the social-economic functions (from career advancement to promoting moral-political causes that "feel self-evidently right"). Drawing on a pluralistic social functionalist framework that identifies five functionalist mindsets-people as intuitive scientists, economists, politicians, prosecutors, and theologians-we consider how these mindsets are likely to be expressed in the conduct of scientists. We also explore how the context of policymaker advising is likely to activate or de-activate scientists' social functionalist mindsets. For instance, opportunities to advise policymakers can tempt scientists to promote their ideological beliefs and values, even if advising also brings with it additional accountability pressures. We end prescriptively with an appeal to scientists to be more circumspect in characterizing their objectivity and honesty and to reject idealized representations of scientific behavior that inaccurately portray scientists as value-neutral virgins.

Simulating boundary layer transition with low-Reynolds-number k-epsilon turbulence models. I - An evaluation of prediction characteristics. II - An approach to improving the predictions

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Schmidt, R. C.; Patankar, S. V.

1991-01-01

The capability of two k-epsilon low-Reynolds number (LRN) turbulence models, those of Jones and Launder (1972) and Lam and Bremhorst (1981), to predict transition in external boundary-layer flows subject to free-stream turbulence is analyzed. Both models correctly predict the basic qualitative aspects of boundary-layer transition with free stream turbulence, but for calculations started at low values of certain defined Reynolds numbers, the transition is generally predicted at unrealistically early locations. Also, the methods predict transition lengths significantly shorter than those found experimentally. An approach to overcoming these deficiencies without abandoning the basic LRN k-epsilon framework is developed. This approach limits the production term in the turbulent kinetic energy equation and is based on a simple stability criterion. It is correlated to the free-stream turbulence value. The modification is shown to improve the qualitative and quantitative characteristics of the transition predictions.

Omega from the anisotropy of the redshift correlation function

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hamilton, A. J. S.

1993-01-01

Peculiar velocities distort the correlation function of galaxies observed in redshift space. In the large scale, linear regime, the distortion takes a characteristic quadrupole plus hexadecapole form, with the amplitude of the distortion depending on the cosmological density parameter omega. Preliminary measurements are reported here of the harmonics of the correlation function in the CfA, SSRS, and IRAS 2 Jansky redshift surveys. The observed behavior of the harmonics agrees qualitatively with the predictions of linear theory on large scales in every survey. However, real anisotropy in the galaxy distribution induces large fluctuations in samples which do not yet probe a sufficiently fair volume of the Universe. In the CfA 14.5 sample in particular, the Great Wall induces a large negative quadrupole, which taken at face value implies an unrealistically large omega 20. The IRAS 2 Jy survey, which covers a substantially larger volume than the optical surveys and is less affected by fingers-of-god, yields a more reliable and believable value, omega = 0.5 sup +.5 sub -.25.

Maximum likelihood resampling of noisy, spatially correlated data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Goff, J.; Jenkins, C.

2005-12-01

In any geologic application, noisy data are sources of consternation for researchers, inhibiting interpretability and marring images with unsightly and unrealistic artifacts. Filtering is the typical solution to dealing with noisy data. However, filtering commonly suffers from ad hoc (i.e., uncalibrated, ungoverned) application, which runs the risk of erasing high variability components of the field in addition to the noise components. We present here an alternative to filtering: a newly developed methodology for correcting noise in data by finding the "best" value given the data value, its uncertainty, and the data values and uncertainties at proximal locations. The motivating rationale is that data points that are close to each other in space cannot differ by "too much", where how much is "too much" is governed by the field correlation properties. Data with large uncertainties will frequently violate this condition, and in such cases need to be corrected, or "resampled." The best solution for resampling is determined by the maximum of the likelihood function defined by the intersection of two probability density functions (pdf): (1) the data pdf, with mean and variance determined by the data value and square uncertainty, respectively, and (2) the geostatistical pdf, whose mean and variance are determined by the kriging algorithm applied to proximal data values. A Monte Carlo sampling of the data probability space eliminates non-uniqueness, and weights the solution toward data values with lower uncertainties. A test with a synthetic data set sampled from a known field demonstrates quantitatively and qualitatively the improvement provided by the maximum likelihood resampling algorithm. The method is also applied to three marine geology/geophysics data examples: (1) three generations of bathymetric data on the New Jersey shelf with disparate data uncertainties; (2) mean grain size data from the Adriatic Sea, which is combination of both analytic (low uncertainty) and word-based (higher uncertainty) sources; and (3) sidescan backscatter data from the Martha's Vineyard Coastal Observatory which are, as is typical for such data, affected by speckly noise.

An international prospective cohort study of mobile phone users and health (COSMOS): Factors affecting validity of self-reported mobile phone use.

PubMed

Toledano, Mireille B; Auvinen, Anssi; Tettamanti, Giorgio; Cao, Yang; Feychting, Maria; Ahlbom, Anders; Fremling, Karin; Heinävaara, Sirpa; Kojo, Katja; Knowles, Gemma; Smith, Rachel B; Schüz, Joachim; Johansen, Christoffer; Poulsen, Aslak Harbo; Deltour, Isabelle; Vermeulen, Roel; Kromhout, Hans; Elliott, Paul; Hillert, Lena

2018-01-01

This study investigates validity of self-reported mobile phone use in a subset of 75 993 adults from the COSMOS cohort study. Agreement between self-reported and operator-derived mobile call frequency and duration for a 3-month period was assessed using Cohen's weighted Kappa (κ). Sensitivity and specificity of both self-reported high (≥10 calls/day or ≥4h/week) and low (≤6 calls/week or <30min/week) mobile phone use were calculated, as compared to operator data. For users of one mobile phone, agreement was fair for call frequency (κ=0.35, 95% CI: 0.35, 0.36) and moderate for call duration (κ=0.50, 95% CI: 0.49, 0.50). Self-reported low call frequency and duration demonstrated high sensitivity (87% and 76% respectively), but for high call frequency and duration sensitivity was lower (38% and 56% respectively), reflecting a tendency for greater underestimation than overestimation. Validity of self-reported mobile phone use was lower in women, younger age groups and those reporting symptoms during/shortly after using a mobile phone. This study highlights the ongoing value of using self-report data to measure mobile phone use. Furthermore, compared to continuous scale estimates used by previous studies, categorical response options used in COSMOS appear to improve validity considerably, most likely by preventing unrealistically high estimates from being reported. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier GmbH. All rights reserved.

Random bearings and their stability.

PubMed

Mahmoodi Baram, Reza; Herrmann, Hans J

2005-11-25

Self-similar space-filling bearings have been proposed some time ago as models for the motion of tectonic plates and appearance of seismic gaps. These models have two features which, however, seem unrealistic, namely, high symmetry in the arrangement of the particles, and lack of a lower cutoff in the size of the particles. In this work, an algorithm for generating random bearings in both two and three dimensions is presented. Introducing a lower cutoff for the sizes of the particles, the instabilities of the bearing under an external force such as gravity, are studied.

In modelling effects of global warming, invalid assumptions lead to unrealistic projections.

PubMed

Lefevre, Sjannie; McKenzie, David J; Nilsson, Göran E

2018-02-01

In their recent Opinion, Pauly and Cheung () provide new projections of future maximum fish weight (W ∞ ). Based on criticism by Lefevre et al. (2017) they changed the scaling exponent for anabolism, d G . Here we find that changing both d G and the scaling exponent for catabolism, b, leads to the projection that fish may even become 98% smaller with a 1°C increase in temperature. This unrealistic outcome indicates that the current W ∞ is unlikely to be explained by the Gill-Oxygen Limitation Theory (GOLT) and, therefore, GOLT cannot be used as a mechanistic basis for model projections about fish size in a warmer world. © 2017 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

The 'picky eater': The toddler or preschooler who does not eat.

PubMed

Leung, Alexander Kc; Marchand, Valérie; Sauve, Reginald S

2012-10-01

The majority of children between one and five years of age who are brought in by their parents for refusing to eat are healthy and have an appetite that is appropriate for their age and growth rate. Unrealistic parental expectations may result in unnecessary concern, and inappropriate threats or punishments may aggravate a child's refusal to eat. A detailed history and general physical examination are necessary to rule out acute and chronic illnesses. A food diary and assessment of parental expectations about eating behaviour should be completed. Where the child's 'refusal' to eat is found to be related to unrealistic expectations, parents should be reassured and counselled about the normal growth and development of children at this age.

Correlation of Positive and Negative Reciprocity Fails to Confer an Evolutionary Advantage: Phase Transitions to Elementary Strategies

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Szolnoki, Attila; Perc, Matjaž

2013-10-01

Economic experiments reveal that humans value cooperation and fairness. Punishing unfair behavior is therefore common, and according to the theory of strong reciprocity, it is also directly related to rewarding cooperative behavior. However, empirical data fail to confirm that positive and negative reciprocity are correlated. Inspired by this disagreement, we determine whether the combined application of reward and punishment is evolutionarily advantageous. We study a spatial public goods game, where in addition to the three elementary strategies of defection, rewarding, and punishment, a fourth strategy that combines the latter two competes for space. We find rich dynamical behavior that gives rise to intricate phase diagrams where continuous and discontinuous phase transitions occur in succession. Indirect territorial competition, spontaneous emergence of cyclic dominance, as well as divergent fluctuations of oscillations that terminate in an absorbing phase are observed. Yet, despite the high complexity of solutions, the combined strategy can survive only in very narrow and unrealistic parameter regions. Elementary strategies, either in pure or mixed phases, are much more common and likely to prevail. Our results highlight the importance of patterns and structure in human cooperation, which should be considered in future experiments.

Women who abuse their children: implications for pediatric practice.

PubMed

Rosen, B; Stein, M T

1980-10-01

Parents who abuse their children may not accept traditional therapy but may be influenced by the child's primary care physician. A comparative study of abusive and nonabusive mothers showed abusers to have lower self-concept and higher self-concept incongruence and inconsistency than nonabusers. They were also found to value authority over others more, and conformity and benevolence less, than nonabusers. Practically applied, the data lead the pediatrician to an educative and supportive role in which he or she may enhance self-esteem and lower unrealistic expectations in the course of treating the child. In addition, there seems to be a need to develop access to support groups, day care, and other avenues for the mother's personal growth. This may be done either within a pediatric practice or through liaison with community resources.

Home culture, science, school and science learning: is reconciliation possible?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tan, Aik-Ling

2011-09-01

In response to Meyer and Crawford's article on how nature of science and authentic science inquiry strategies can be used to support the learning of science for underrepresented students, I explore the possibly of reconciliation between the cultures of school, science, school science as well as home. Such reconciliation is only possible when science teachers are cognizant of the factors affecting the cultural values and belief systems of underrepresented students. Using my experience as an Asian learner of WMS, I suggest that open and honest dialogues in science classrooms will allow for greater clarity of the ideals that WMS profess and cultural beliefs of underrepresented students. This in-depth understanding will eliminate guesswork and unrealistic expectations and in the process promote tolerance and acceptance of diversity in ways of knowing.

Expectations and satisfaction of denture patients in a university clinic.

PubMed

Davis, E L; Albino, J E; Tedesco, L A; Portenoy, B S; Ortman, L F

1986-01-01

These results indicate that patients' expectations of dentures before treatment were unrealistically high and that informational videotapes did not significantly affect these expectations. Satisfaction with current dentures was surprisingly high before treatment and increased significantly from pretreatment to postreatment for both groups in the study. While it is likely that this increase in satisfaction reflects a change from poor to excellent denture status, this finding may also be attributed to cognitive dissonance theory; that is, high satisfaction may represent the means by which patients justify the expenses of their denture treatment. Although the videotape presentations did not alter the expectations of patients and their satisfaction with dentures, the tapes represent a potential source of accurate, standardized information for both patient and student dentist.

Ain't no mountain high enough? Setting high weight loss goals predict effort and short-term weight loss.

PubMed

De Vet, Emely; Nelissen, Rob M A; Zeelenberg, Marcel; De Ridder, Denise T D

2013-05-01

Although psychological theories outline that it might be beneficial to set more challenging goals, people attempting to lose weight are generally recommended to set modest weight loss goals. The present study explores whether the amount of weight loss individuals strive for is associated with more positive psychological and behavioral outcomes. Hereto, 447 overweight and obese participants trying to lose weight completed two questionnaires with a 2-month interval. Many participants set goals that could be considered unrealistically high. However, higher weight loss goals did not predict dissatisfaction but predicted more effort in the weight loss attempt, as well as more self-reported short-term weight loss when baseline commitment and motivation were controlled for.

Hydrological modelling improvements required in basins in the Hindukush-Karakoram-Himalayas region

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Khan, Asif; Richards, Keith S.; McRobie, Allan; Booij, Martijn

2016-04-01

Millions of people rely on river water originating from basins in the Hindukush-Karakoram-Himalayas (HKH), where snow- and ice-melt are significant flow components. One such basin is the Upper Indus Basin (UIB), where snow- and ice-melt can contribute more than 80% of total flow. Containing some of the world's largest alpine glaciers, this basin may be highly susceptible to global warming and climate change, and reliable predictions of future water availability are vital for resource planning for downstream food and energy needs in a changing climate, but depend on significantly improved hydrological modelling. However, a critical assessment of available hydro-climatic data and hydrological modelling in the HKH region has identified five major failings in many published hydro-climatic studies, even those appearing in reputable international journals. The main weaknesses of these studies are: i) incorrect basin areas; ii) under-estimated precipitation; iii) incorrectly-defined glacier boundaries; iv) under-estimated snow-cover data; and v) use of biased melt factors for snow and ice during the summer months. This paper illustrates these limitations, which have either resulted in modelled flows being under-estimates of measured flows, leading to an implied severe water scarcity; or have led to the use of unrealistically high degree-day factors and over-estimates of glacier melt contributions, implying unrealistic melt rates. These effects vary amongst sub-basins. Forecasts obtained from these models cannot be used reliably in policy making or water resource development, and need revision. Detailed critical analysis and improvement of existing hydrological modelling may be equally necessary in other mountain regions across the world.

Emerging Technologies for Gut Microbiome Research

PubMed Central

Arnold, Jason W.; Roach, Jeffrey; Azcarate-Peril, M. Andrea

2016-01-01

Understanding the importance of the gut microbiome on modulation of host health has become a subject of great interest for researchers across disciplines. As an intrinsically multidisciplinary field, microbiome research has been able to reap the benefits of technological advancements in systems and synthetic biology, biomaterials engineering, and traditional microbiology. Gut microbiome research has been revolutionized by high-throughput sequencing technology, permitting compositional and functional analyses that were previously an unrealistic undertaking. Emerging technologies including engineered organoids derived from human stem cells, high-throughput culturing, and microfluidics assays allowing for the introduction of novel approaches will improve the efficiency and quality of microbiome research. Here, we will discuss emerging technologies and their potential impact on gut microbiome studies. PMID:27426971

Possible application of electromagnetic guns to impact fusion

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kostoff, R. N.; Peaslee, A. T., Jr.; Ribe, F. L.

1982-01-01

The possible application of electromagnetic guns to impact fusion for the generation of electric power is discussed, and advantages of impact fusion over the more conventional inertial confinement fusion concepts are examined. It is shown that impact fusion can achieve the necessary high yields, of the order of a few gigajoules, which are difficult to achieve with lasers except at unrealistically high target gains. The rail gun accelerator is well adapted to the delivery of some 10-100 megajoules of energy to the fusion target, and the electrical technology involved is relatively simple: inductive storage or rotating machinery and capacitors. It is concluded that the rail gun has the potential of developing into an impact fusion macroparticle accelerator.

Evaluating variability with atomistic simulations: the effect of potential and calculation methodology on the modeling of lattice and elastic constants

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hale, Lucas M.; Trautt, Zachary T.; Becker, Chandler A.

2018-07-01

Atomistic simulations using classical interatomic potentials are powerful investigative tools linking atomic structures to dynamic properties and behaviors. It is well known that different interatomic potentials produce different results, thus making it necessary to characterize potentials based on how they predict basic properties. Doing so makes it possible to compare existing interatomic models in order to select those best suited for specific use cases, and to identify any limitations of the models that may lead to unrealistic responses. While the methods for obtaining many of these properties are often thought of as simple calculations, there are many underlying aspects that can lead to variability in the reported property values. For instance, multiple methods may exist for computing the same property and values may be sensitive to certain simulation parameters. Here, we introduce a new high-throughput computational framework that encodes various simulation methodologies as Python calculation scripts. Three distinct methods for evaluating the lattice and elastic constants of bulk crystal structures are implemented and used to evaluate the properties across 120 interatomic potentials, 18 crystal prototypes, and all possible combinations of unique lattice site and elemental model pairings. Analysis of the results reveals which potentials and crystal prototypes are sensitive to the calculation methods and parameters, and it assists with the verification of potentials, methods, and molecular dynamics software. The results, calculation scripts, and computational infrastructure are self-contained and openly available to support researchers in performing meaningful simulations.

Assessing the value of customized birth weight percentiles.

PubMed

Hutcheon, Jennifer A; Walker, Mark; Platt, Robert W

2011-02-15

Customized birth weight percentiles are weight-for-gestational-age percentiles that account for the influence of maternal characteristics on fetal growth. Although intuitively appealing, the incremental value they provide in the identification of intrauterine growth restriction (IUGR) over conventional birth weight percentiles is controversial. The objective of this study was to assess the value of customized birth weight percentiles in a simulated cohort of 100,000 infants aged 37 weeks whose IUGR status was known. A cohort of infants with a range of healthy birth weights was first simulated on the basis of the distributions of maternal/fetal characteristics observed in births at the Royal Victoria Hospital in Montreal, Canada, between 2000 and 2006. The occurrence of IUGR was re-created by reducing the observed birth weights of a small percentage of these infants. The value of customized percentiles was assessed by calculating true and false positive rates. Customizing birth weight percentiles for maternal characteristics added very little information to the identification of IUGR beyond that obtained from conventional weight-for-gestational-age percentiles (true positive rates of 61.8% and 61.1%, respectively, and false positive rates of 7.9% and 8.5%, respectively). For the process of customization to be worthwhile, maternal characteristics in the customization model were shown through simulation to require an unrealistically strong association with birth weight.

Rainfall disaggregation for urban hydrology: Effects of spatial consistence

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Müller, Hannes; Haberlandt, Uwe

2015-04-01

For urban hydrology rainfall time series with a high temporal resolution are crucial. Observed time series of this kind are very short in most cases, so they cannot be used. On the contrary, time series with lower temporal resolution (daily measurements) exist for much longer periods. The objective is to derive time series with a long duration and a high resolution by disaggregating time series of the non-recording stations with information of time series of the recording stations. The multiplicative random cascade model is a well-known disaggregation model for daily time series. For urban hydrology it is often assumed, that a day consists of only 1280 minutes in total as starting point for the disaggregation process. We introduce a new variant for the cascade model, which is functional without this assumption and also outperforms the existing approach regarding time series characteristics like wet and dry spell duration, average intensity, fraction of dry intervals and extreme value representation. However, in both approaches rainfall time series of different stations are disaggregated without consideration of surrounding stations. This yields in unrealistic spatial patterns of rainfall. We apply a simulated annealing algorithm that has been used successfully for hourly values before. Relative diurnal cycles of the disaggregated time series are resampled to reproduce the spatial dependence of rainfall. To describe spatial dependence we use bivariate characteristics like probability of occurrence, continuity ratio and coefficient of correlation. Investigation area is a sewage system in Northern Germany. We show that the algorithm has the capability to improve spatial dependence. The influence of the chosen disaggregation routine and the spatial dependence on overflow occurrences and volumes of the sewage system will be analyzed.

Protecting groundwater resources at biosolids recycling sites.

PubMed

McFarland, Michael J; Kumarasamy, Karthik; Brobst, Robert B; Hais, Alan; Schmitz, Mark D

2013-01-01

In developing the national biosolids recycling rule (Title 40 of the Code of Federal Regulation Part 503 or Part 503), the USEPA conducted deterministic risk assessments whose results indicated that the probability of groundwater impairment associated with biosolids recycling was insignificant. Unfortunately, the computational capabilities available for performing risk assessments of pollutant fate and transport at that time were limited. Using recent advances in USEPA risk assessment methodology, the present study evaluates whether the current national biosolids pollutant limits remain protective of groundwater quality. To take advantage of new risk assessment approaches, a computer-based groundwater risk characterization screening tool (RCST) was developed using USEPA's Multimedia, Multi-pathway, Multi-receptor Exposure and Risk Assessment program. The RCST, which generates a noncarcinogenic human health risk estimate (i.e., hazard quotient [HQ] value), has the ability to conduct screening-level risk characterizations. The regulated heavy metals modeled in this study were As, Cd, Ni, Se, and Zn. Results from RCST application to biosolids recycling sites located in Yakima County, Washington, indicated that biosolids could be recycled at rates as high as 90 Mg ha, with no negative human health effects associated with groundwater consumption. Only under unrealistically high biosolids land application rates were public health risks characterized as significant (HQ ≥ 1.0). For example, by increasing the biosolids application rate and pollutant concentrations to 900 Mg ha and 10 times the regulatory limit, respectively, the HQ values varied from 1.4 (Zn) to 324.0 (Se). Since promulgation of Part 503, no verifiable cases of groundwater contamination by regulated biosolids pollutants have been reported. Copyright © by the American Society of Agronomy, Crop Science Society of America, and Soil Science Society of America, Inc.

Temporal Arctic longwave surface emissivity feedbacks in the Community Earth System Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kuo, C.; Feldman, D.; Huang, X.; Flanner, M.; Yang, P.; Chen, X.

2017-12-01

We have investigated how the inclusion of realistic and consistent surface emissivity in both land-surface and atmospheric components of the CESM coupled-climate model affects a wide range of climate variables. We did this by replacing the unit emissivity values in RRTMG_LW for water, fine-grained snow, and desert scenes with spectral emissivity values, and by replacing broadband emissivity values in surface components with the Planck-curve weighted counterparts. We find that this harmonized treatment of surface emissivity within CESM can be important for reducing high-latitude temperature biases. We also find that short-term effects of atmospheric dynamics and spectral information need to be considered to understand radiative effects in higher detail, and are possible with radiative kernels computed for every grid and time point for the entire model integration period. We find that conventional climatological feedback calculations indicate that sea-ice emissivity feedback is positive in sign, but that the radiative effects of the difference in emissivity between frozen and unfrozen surfaces exhibit seasonal dependence. Furthermore, this seasonality itself exhibits meridional asymmetry due to differences in sea-ice response to climate forcing between the Arctic and the Antarctic. In the Arctic, this seasonal, temporally higher order analysis exhibits increasing outgoing surface emissivity radiative response in a warming climate. While the sea-ice emissivity feedback and seasonal sea-ice emissivity radiative response amplitudes are a few percent of surface albedo feedbacks, the feedback analysis methods outlined in this work demonstrate that spatially and temporally localized feedback analysis can give insight into the mechanisms at work on those scales which differ in amplitude and sign from conventional climatological analyses. We note that the inclusion of this realistic physics leads to improved agreement between CESM model results and Arctic surface temperatures and sea-ice trends. This reduction of persistent high-latitude model biases suggests that the current unrealistic representation of surface emissivity in model component radiation routines may be an important contributing factor to cold-pole biases.

An initial ULF wave index derived from 2 years of Swarm observations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Papadimitriou, Constantinos; Balasis, Georgios; Daglis, Ioannis A.; Giannakis, Omiros

2018-03-01

The ongoing Swarm satellite mission provides an opportunity for better knowledge of the near-Earth electromagnetic environment. Herein, we use a new methodological approach for the detection and classification of ultra low-frequency (ULF) wave events observed by Swarm based on an existing time-frequency analysis (TFA) tool and utilizing a state-of-the-art high-resolution magnetic field model and Swarm Level 2 products (i.e., field-aligned currents - FACs - and the Ionospheric Bubble Index - IBI). We present maps of the dependence of ULF wave power with magnetic latitude and magnetic local time (MLT) as well as geographic latitude and longitude from the three satellites at their different locations in low-Earth orbit (LEO) for a period spanning 2 years after the constellation's final configuration. We show that the inclusion of the Swarm single-spacecraft FAC product in our analysis eliminates all the wave activity at high altitudes, which is physically unrealistic. Moreover, we derive a Swarm orbit-by-orbit Pc3 wave (20-100 MHz) index for the topside ionosphere and compare its values with the corresponding variations of solar wind variables and geomagnetic activity indices. This is the first attempt, to our knowledge, to derive a ULF wave index from LEO satellite data. The technique can be potentially used to define a new Level 2 product from the mission, the Swarm ULF wave index, which would be suitable for space weather applications.

Curious kinetic behavior in silica polymorphs solves seifertite puzzle in shocked meteorite

PubMed Central

Kubo, Tomoaki; Kato, Takumi; Higo, Yuji; Funakoshi, Ken-ichi

2015-01-01

The presence of seifertite, one of the high-pressure polymorphs of silica, in achondritic shocked meteorites has been problematic because this phase is thermodynamically stable at more than ~100 GPa, unrealistically high-pressure conditions for the shock events in the early solar system. We conducted in situ x-ray diffraction measurements at high pressure and temperatures, and found that it metastably appears down to ~11 GPa owing to the clear difference in kinetics between the metastable seifertite and stable stishovite formations. The temperature-insensitive but time-sensitive kinetics for the formation of seifertite uniquely constrains that the critical shock duration and size of the impactor on differentiated parental bodies are at least ~0.01 s and ~50 to 100 m, respectively, from the presence of seifertite. PMID:26601182

78 FR 5444 - Submission for OMB Review; Payments

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2013-01-25

... challenging that the agency's methodology for calculating it is insufficient and inadequate and does not... hours of burden per response is unrealistically low given the level of documentation required to support...

Talking to Your Child's Doctor

MedlinePlus

... doctor is unrealistic expectations or an unwillingness to trust a doctor's diagnosis or treatment of a minor ... communication by letting the doctor know that you trust him or her to care for your child. ...

Robust isotropic super-resolution by maximizing a Laplace posterior for MRI volumes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Han, Xian-Hua; Iwamoto, Yutaro; Shiino, Akihiko; Chen, Yen-Wei

2014-03-01

Magnetic resonance imaging can only acquire volume data with finite resolution due to various factors. In particular, the resolution in one direction (such as the slice direction) is much lower than others (such as the in-plane direction), yielding un-realistic visualizations. This study explores to reconstruct MRI isotropic resolution volumes from three orthogonal scans. This proposed super- resolution reconstruction is formulated as a maximum a posterior (MAP) problem, which relies on the generation model of the acquired scans from the unknown high-resolution volumes. Generally, the deviation ensemble of the reconstructed high-resolution (HR) volume from the available LR ones in the MAP is represented as a Gaussian distribution, which usually results in some noise and artifacts in the reconstructed HR volume. Therefore, this paper investigates a robust super-resolution by formulating the deviation set as a Laplace distribution, which assumes sparsity in the deviation ensemble based on the possible insight of the appeared large values only around some unexpected regions. In addition, in order to achieve reliable HR MRI volume, we integrates the priors such as bilateral total variation (BTV) and non-local mean (NLM) into the proposed MAP framework for suppressing artifacts and enriching visual detail. We validate the proposed robust SR strategy using MRI mouse data with high-definition resolution in two direction and low-resolution in one direction, which are imaged in three orthogonal scans: axial, coronal and sagittal planes. Experiments verifies that the proposed strategy can achieve much better HR MRI volumes than the conventional MAP method even with very high-magnification factor: 10.

Marital Expectations in Strong African American Marriages.

PubMed

Vaterlaus, J Mitchell; Skogrand, Linda; Chaney, Cassandra; Gahagan, Kassandra

2017-12-01

The current exploratory study utilized a family strengths framework to identify marital expectations in 39 strong African American heterosexual marriages. Couples reflected on their marital expectations over their 10 or more years of marriage. Three themes emerged through qualitative analysis and the participants' own words were used in the presentation of the themes. African Americans indicated that there was growth in marital expectations over time, with marital expectations often beginning with unrealistic expectations that grew into more realistic expectations as their marriages progressed. Participants also indicated that core expectations in strong African American marriages included open communication, congruent values, and positive treatment of spouse. Finally, participants explained there is an "I" in marriage as they discussed the importance of autonomy within their marital relationships. Results are discussed in association with existing research and theory. © 2016 Family Process Institute.

Beat Procrastination--Now!

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Bakunas, Boris

2001-01-01

Procrastinators harbor unrealistic attitudes that promote needless delay and engender obstructive feelings such as performance anxiety, low frustration tolerance, and resentment. Common procrastination pitfalls include escapism, overpreparation, overwork, overcommitment, poor work conditions, and rationalization. Planning and prioritizing helps…

Black hole formation from the gravitational collapse of a nonspherical network of structures

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Delgado Gaspar, Ismael; Hidalgo, Juan Carlos; Sussman, Roberto A.; Quiros, Israel

2018-05-01

We examine the gravitational collapse and black hole formation of multiple nonspherical configurations constructed from Szekeres dust models with positive spatial curvature that smoothly match to a Schwarzschild exterior. These configurations are made of an almost spherical central core region surrounded by a network of "pancake-like" overdensities and voids with spatial positions prescribed through standard initial conditions. We show that a full collapse into a focusing singularity, without shell crossings appearing before the formation of an apparent horizon, is not possible unless the full configuration becomes exactly or almost spherical. Seeking for black hole formation, we demand that shell crossings are covered by the apparent horizon. This requires very special fine-tuned initial conditions that impose very strong and unrealistic constraints on the total black hole mass and full collapse time. As a consequence, nonspherical nonrotating dust sources cannot furnish even minimally realistic toy models of black hole formation at astrophysical scales: demanding realistic collapse time scales yields huge unrealistic black hole masses, while simulations of typical astrophysical black hole masses collapse in unrealistically small times. We note, however, that the resulting time-mass constraint is compatible with early Universe models of primordial black hole formation, suitable in early dust-like environments. Finally, we argue that the shell crossings appearing when nonspherical dust structures collapse are an indicator that such structures do not form galactic mass black holes but virialize into stable stationary objects.

The comparability of the universalism value over time and across countries in the European Social Survey: exact vs. approximate measurement invariance

PubMed Central

Zercher, Florian; Schmidt, Peter; Cieciuch, Jan; Davidov, Eldad

2015-01-01

Over the last decades, large international datasets such as the European Social Survey (ESS), the European Value Study (EVS) and the World Value Survey (WVS) have been collected to compare value means over multiple time points and across many countries. Yet analyzing comparative survey data requires the fulfillment of specific assumptions, i.e., that these values are comparable over time and across countries. Given the large number of groups that can be compared in repeated cross-national datasets, establishing measurement invariance has been, however, considered unrealistic. Indeed, studies which did assess it often failed to establish higher levels of invariance such as scalar invariance. In this paper we first introduce the newly developed approximate approach based on Bayesian structural equation modeling (BSEM) to assess cross-group invariance over countries and time points and contrast the findings with the results from the traditional exact measurement invariance test. BSEM examines whether measurement parameters are approximately (rather than exactly) invariant. We apply BSEM to a subset of items measuring the universalism value from the Portrait Values Questionnaire (PVQ) in the ESS. The invariance of this value is tested simultaneously across 15 ESS countries over six ESS rounds with 173,071 respondents and 90 groups in total. Whereas, the use of the traditional approach only legitimates the comparison of latent means of 37 groups, the Bayesian procedure allows the latent mean comparison of 73 groups. Thus, our empirical application demonstrates for the first time the BSEM test procedure on a particularly large set of groups. PMID:26089811

Using Gridded Snow Covered Area and Snow-Water Equivalence Spatial Data Sets to Improve Snow-Pack Depletion Simulation in a Continental Scale Hydrologic Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Risley, J. C.; Tracey, J. A.; Markstrom, S. L.; Hay, L.

2014-12-01

Snow cover areal depletion curves were used in a continuous daily hydrologic model to simulate seasonal spring snowmelt during the period between maximum snowpack accumulation and total melt. The curves are defined as the ratio of snow-water equivalence (SWE) divided by the seasonal maximum snow-water equivalence (Ai) (Y axis) versus the percent snow cover area (SCA) (X axis). The slope of the curve can vary depending on local watershed conditions. Windy sparsely vegetated high elevation watersheds, for example, can have a steeper slope than lower elevation forested watersheds. To improve the accuracy of simulated runoff at ungaged watersheds, individual snow cover areal depletion curves were created for over 100,000 hydrologic response units (HRU) in the continental scale U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) National Hydrologic Model (NHM). NHM includes the same components of the USGS Precipitation-Runoff-Modeling System (PRMS), except it uses consistent land surface characterization and model parameterization across the U.S. continent. Weighted-mean daily time series of 1-kilometer gridded SWE, from Snow Data Assimilation System (SNODAS), and 500-meter gridded SCA, from Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS), for 2003-2014 were computed for each HRU using the USGS Geo Data Portal. Using a screening process, pairs of SWE/Ai and SCA from the snowmelt period of each year were selected. SCA values derived from imagery that did not have any cloud cover and were >0 and <100 percent were selected. Unrealistically low and high SCA values that were paired with high and low SWE/Ai ratios, respectively, were removed. Second order polynomial equations were then fit to the remaining pairs of SWE/Ai and SCA to create a unique curve for each HRU. Simulations comparing these new curves with an existing single default curve in NHM will be made to determine if there are significant improvements in runoff.

Emotional Dependency and Dysfunctional Relationship Beliefs as Predictors of Married Turkish Individuals' Relationship Satisfaction.

PubMed

Kemer, Gülşah; Çetinkaya Yıldız, Evrim; Bulgan, Gökçe

2016-11-02

In this study, we examined married individuals' relationship satisfaction in relation to their emotional dependency and dysfunctional relationship beliefs. Our participants consisted of 203 female and 181 male, a total of 384 married individuals from urban cities of Turkey. Controlling the effects of gender and length of marriage, we performed a hierarchical regression analysis. Results revealed that married Turkish individuals' relationship satisfaction was significantly explained by their emotional dependency (sr 2 = .300, p < .001), and perceptions of interpersonal rejection (sr 2 = .075, p < .001) and unrealistic relationship expectations (sr 2 = .028, p .05). When compared to perceptions of interpersonal rejection and unrealistic relationship expectations, emotional dependency had the largest role in explaining participants' satisfaction with their marriages. We discuss the results in light of current literature as well as cultural relevance. We also provide implications for future research and mental health practices.

The relationship between interpersonal problems and occupational stress in physicians.

PubMed

Falkum, Erik; Vaglum, Per

2005-01-01

This article examined the associations between occupational stress and interpersonal problems in physicians. A nationwide representative sample of Norwegian physicians received the 64-item version of the Inventory of Interpersonal Problems (IIP-64) (N=862, response rate=70%) and six instruments measuring occupational stress. Comparison of means, correlation and reliability statistics and multiple regression analyses were applied. The IIP-64 total score had a significant impact on job satisfaction, perceived unrealistic expectancies, communication with colleagues and nurses and on stress from interaction with patients. Being overly subassertive was related to low job satisfaction. Being overly expressive was linked to the experience of unrealistic expectancies from others and lack of positive feedback, whereas overly competitive physicians tended to have poorer relationships with both colleagues and nurses. Addressing interpersonal problems in medical school and postgraduate training may be a valuable measure to prevent job stress and promote quality of care.

Rejecting the equilibrium-point hypothesis.

PubMed

Gottlieb, G L

1998-01-01

The lambda version of the equilibrium-point (EP) hypothesis as developed by Feldman and colleagues has been widely used and cited with insufficient critical understanding. This article offers a small antidote to that lack. First, the hypothesis implicitly, unrealistically assumes identical transformations of lambda into muscle tension for antagonist muscles. Without that assumption, its definitions of command variables R, C, and lambda are incompatible and an EP is not defined exclusively by R nor is it unaffected by C. Second, the model assumes unrealistic and unphysiological parameters for the damping properties of the muscles and reflexes. Finally, the theory lacks rules for two of its three command variables. A theory of movement should offer insight into why we make movements the way we do and why we activate muscles in particular patterns. The EP hypothesis offers no unique ideas that are helpful in addressing either of these questions.

The use of vignettes to empower effective responses to attempted sexual assault.

PubMed

Allen, Kaylie T; Meadows, Elizabeth A

2017-01-01

Women assertively resisting sexual aggression have the best chances of avoiding completed rape. Especially with acquaintances, there are significant social and psychological barriers to resistance. Novel vignettes depicting acquaintance rape were designed to enhance self-efficacy, reduce unrealistic optimism, and empower assertive resistance. The data were collected using a Web-based survey of 449 female college students from multiple universities in August-October 2014. Between-subjects mixed-methods design. Participants were randomly assigned to read one of four vignettes and complete self-report measures of personal vulnerability, self-efficacy, and beliefs and intention about resistance. Although vignettes did not impact self-efficacy, one vignette enhanced perceived controllability and decreased unrealistic optimism. Women who read about completed acquaintance rape described intention to use physically assertive responses at double the rate of women reading about successful resistance. As low-cost, easily disseminated materials, vignettes about sexual assault may enhance campus prevention efforts.

Landscape evolution models using the stream power incision model show unrealistic behavior when m / n equals 0.5

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kwang, Jeffrey S.; Parker, Gary

2017-12-01

Landscape evolution models often utilize the stream power incision model to simulate river incision: E = KAmSn, where E is the vertical incision rate, K is the erodibility constant, A is the upstream drainage area, S is the channel gradient, and m and n are exponents. This simple but useful law has been employed with an imposed rock uplift rate to gain insight into steady-state landscapes. The most common choice of exponents satisfies m / n = 0.5. Yet all models have limitations. Here, we show that when hillslope diffusion (which operates only on small scales) is neglected, the choice m / n = 0.5 yields a curiously unrealistic result: the predicted landscape is invariant to horizontal stretching. That is, the steady-state landscape for a 10 km2 horizontal domain can be stretched so that it is identical to the corresponding landscape for a 1000 km2 domain.

Effects of realism on extended violent and nonviolent video game play on aggressive thoughts, feelings, and physiological arousal.

PubMed

Barlett, Christopher P; Rodeheffer, Christopher

2009-01-01

Previous research has shown that playing violent video game exposure can increase aggressive thoughts, aggressive feelings, and physiological arousal. This study compared the effects that playing a realistic violent, unrealistic violent, or nonviolent video game for 45 min has on such variables. For the purpose of this study, realism was defined as the probability of seeing an event in real life. Participants (N=74; 39 male, 35 female) played either a realistic violent, unrealistic violent, or nonviolent video game for 45 min. Aggressive thoughts and aggressive feelings were measured four times (every 15 min), whereas arousal was measured continuously. The results showed that, though playing any violent game stimulated aggressive thoughts, playing a more realistic violent game stimulated significantly more aggressive feelings and arousal over the course of play. Copyright 2009 Wiley-Liss, Inc.

The ecological risks of genetically engineered organisms

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wolfenbarger, Lareesa

2001-03-01

Highly publicized studies have suggested environmental risks of releasing genetically engineered organisms (GEOs) and have renewed concerns over the evaluation and regulation of these products in domestic and international arenas. I present an overview of the risks of GEOs and the available evidence addressing these and discuss the challenges for risk assessment. Main categories of risk include non-target effects from GEOs, emergence of new viral diseases, and the spread of invasive (weedy) characteristics. Studies have detected non-target effects in some cases but not all; however, much less information exists on other risks, in part due to a lack of conceptual knowledge. For example, general models for predicting invasiveness are not well developed for any introduced organism. The risks of GEOs appear comparable to those for any introduced species or organism, but the magnitude of the risk or the pathway of exposure to the risk can differ among introduced organisms. Therefore, assessing the risks requires a case-by-case analysis so that any differences can be identified. Challenges to assessing risks to valued ecosystems include variability in effects and ecosystem complexity. Ecosystems are a dynamic and complex network of biological and physical interactions. Introducing a new biological entity, such as a GEO, may potentially alter any of these interactions, but evaluating all of these is unrealistic. Effects on a valued ecosystem could vary greatly depending on the geographical location of the experimental site, the GEO used, the plot size of the experiment (scaling effects), and the biological and physical parameters used in the experiment. Experiments that address these sources of variability will provide the most useful information for risk assessments.

Dietary sodium intake and prevalence of overweight in adults.

PubMed

Song, Hong Ji; Cho, Young Gyu; Lee, Hae-Jeung

2013-05-01

There has been no convincing evidence for a direct relation between sodium intake and being overweight. Therefore, we investigated the independent relationship between overweight and sodium intake in human subjects. Of those aged 19 to 64 years who participated in the 4th Korea National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey, a total of 5955 participants (54% female) were included. Subjects were excluded if they reported unrealistic daily total energy intakes or intentional dietary changes, were pregnant, or were diagnosed with hypertension, diabetes, renal failure, liver cirrhosis, or thyroid disease. Overweight was defined as having a body mass index of 25 kg/m(2) or higher. Sodium intake was calculated from 24-h recall and categorized into quintiles. Multivariate logistic regression was used to test the relationship between sodium intake and being overweight. Compared to men in the lowest quintile, men in the 4th and 5th quintiles had an increased risk of being overweight with odds ratios (ORs) of 1.37 (95% confidence interval [CI], 1.02-1.82) and 1.67 (95% CI, 1.23-2.27) respectively, after adjusting for confounding factors including soft drink and energy intake. The P value for trend of ORs in each quintile for men was 0.0033. In women, compared to the lowest quintile, the highest quintile had an OR of 1.31(95% CI, 0.96-1.79) and showed a marginally significant trend towards increasing risk of being overweight (P value=.058). Our findings suggest an independent relationship between high sodium intake and an increased risk of being overweight in adults. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Universality, Limits and Predictability of Gold-Medal Performances at the Olympic Games

PubMed Central

Radicchi, Filippo

2012-01-01

Inspired by the Games held in ancient Greece, modern Olympics represent the world’s largest pageant of athletic skill and competitive spirit. Performances of athletes at the Olympic Games mirror, since 1896, human potentialities in sports, and thus provide an optimal source of information for studying the evolution of sport achievements and predicting the limits that athletes can reach. Unfortunately, the models introduced so far for the description of athlete performances at the Olympics are either sophisticated or unrealistic, and more importantly, do not provide a unified theory for sport performances. Here, we address this issue by showing that relative performance improvements of medal winners at the Olympics are normally distributed, implying that the evolution of performance values can be described in good approximation as an exponential approach to an a priori unknown limiting performance value. This law holds for all specialties in athletics–including running, jumping, and throwing–and swimming. We present a self-consistent method, based on normality hypothesis testing, able to predict limiting performance values in all specialties. We further quantify the most likely years in which athletes will breach challenging performance walls in running, jumping, throwing, and swimming events, as well as the probability that new world records will be established at the next edition of the Olympic Games. PMID:22808137

Accurate modeling and evaluation of microstructures in complex materials

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tahmasebi, Pejman

2018-02-01

Accurate characterization of heterogeneous materials is of great importance for different fields of science and engineering. Such a goal can be achieved through imaging. Acquiring three- or two-dimensional images under different conditions is not, however, always plausible. On the other hand, accurate characterization of complex and multiphase materials requires various digital images (I) under different conditions. An ensemble method is presented that can take one single (or a set of) I(s) and stochastically produce several similar models of the given disordered material. The method is based on a successive calculating of a conditional probability by which the initial stochastic models are produced. Then, a graph formulation is utilized for removing unrealistic structures. A distance transform function for the Is with highly connected microstructure and long-range features is considered which results in a new I that is more informative. Reproduction of the I is also considered through a histogram matching approach in an iterative framework. Such an iterative algorithm avoids reproduction of unrealistic structures. Furthermore, a multiscale approach, based on pyramid representation of the large Is, is presented that can produce materials with millions of pixels in a matter of seconds. Finally, the nonstationary systems—those for which the distribution of data varies spatially—are studied using two different methods. The method is tested on several complex and large examples of microstructures. The produced results are all in excellent agreement with the utilized Is and the similarities are quantified using various correlation functions.

'Less is more' in the Chinese context.

PubMed

Xu, Yifeng

2015-12-25

Excessive polypharmacy is a common problem around the world, particularly in the treatment of psychiatric disorders. In mainland China use of out-of-date treatment strategies by psychiatric professionals is one of the reasons; others include unrealistically high expectations about the effectiveness of medications, the dominant role of the doctor in doctor-patient negotiations about treatment, the practice of polypharmacy in Traditional Chinese Medicine (TCM), the profit-driven nature of medical institutions and individuals, the infiltration of pharmaceutical marketing, and a critical lack of relevant research. This commentary considers the cultural factors that need to be addressed when trying to reduce polypharmacy in psychiatry in China.

Modeling the effect of varying swim speeds on fish passage through velocity barriers

USGS Publications Warehouse

Castro-Santos, T.

2006-01-01

The distance fish can swim through zones of high-velocity flow is an important factor limiting the distribution and conservation of riverine and diadromous fishes. Often, these barriers are characterized by nonuniform flow conditions, and it is likely that fish will swim at varying speeds to traverse them. Existing models used to predict passage success, however, typically include the unrealistic assumption that fish swim at a constant speed regardless of the speed of flow. This paper demonstrates how the maximum distance of ascent through velocity barriers can be estimated from the swim speed-fatigue time relationship, allowing for variation in both swim speed and water velocity.

Lessons from bad general practice *

PubMed Central

Wilkes, Eric

1975-01-01

The paucity of resources for general practice correlates well with high losses through emigration and questions the expensive over-production of doctors now being undertaken. The variable quality of community care and the absence of a structure yet providing real planning or capital, leads to the uneconomic abuse of hospital facilities and to an excessive emphasis on institutionalisation. Medicine is becoming depersonalised because unrealistic expectations lead to an overloading of the service. Simultaneously we allocate a low priority to education in the use of the service, have little training in the sociological aspects of medical care, and even less in how best to use the skills of our non-medical professional colleagues. PMID:1177214

A Proposal of a Mass Appraisal System in Greece with CAMA System: Evaluating GWR and MRA techniques in Thessaloniki Municipality

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dimopoulos, Thomas; Moulas, Alexandros

2016-01-01

Property tax in Greece is levied since 1985 not on Market Values but on the "objective value" of the properties as it is defined by the Ministry of Economics. It forms a non-flexible system, with market-irrelevant and unrealistic values, inducing land-policy practices and potential political cost to each periodical update. Furthermore, instead of adjusting taxation levels to the current economic reality, the real estate market is experiencing further burdening through approximately 40 different property taxes and levies, leading to further shrinking and depreciation. The authors believe that a fairer taxation system could significantly assist the property sector in Greece. Thus, through this paper and by studying and analyzing best practices from other countries, they propose models that can be applied with the use of existing data in Greece. This work aims to identify the critical parameters that affecting property values in Thessaloniki to create a Market Value forecasting tool for a fairer taxation system, to highlight the importance of a GIS system for this purpose and to compare the results of MRA with the use of SPSS with those of GWR in ArcGIS environment. For the purposes of this study, the Municipality of Thessaloniki was chosen due to its very well organized portal with significant and well organized geographical data and because authors manage to access some data from the Central Bank of Greece, regarding property valuations.

A Proposal of a Mass Appraisal System in Greece with CAMA System: Evaluating GWR and MRA techniques in Thessaloniki Municipality

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dimopoulos, Thomas; Moulas, Alexandros

2017-01-01

Property tax in Greece is levied since 1985 not on Market Values but on the "objective value" of the properties as it is defined by the Ministry of Economics. It forms a non-flexible system, with market-irrelevant and unrealistic values, inducing land-policy practices and potential political cost to each periodical update. Furthermore, instead of adjusting taxation levels to the current economic reality, the real estate market is experiencing further burdening through approximately 40 different property taxes and levies, leading to further shrinking and depreciation. The authors believe that a fairer taxation system could significantly assist the property sector in Greece. Thus, through this paper and by studying and analyzing best practices from other countries, they propose models that can be applied with the use of existing data in Greece. This work aims to identify the critical parameters that affecting property values in Thessaloniki to create a Market Value forecasting tool for a fairer taxation system, to highlight the importance of a GIS system for this purpose and to compare the results of MRA with the use of SPSS with those of GWR in ArcGIS environment. For the purposes of this study, the Municipality of Thessaloniki was chosen due to its very well organized portal with significant and well organized geographical data and because authors manage to access some data from the Central Bank of Greece, regarding property valuations.

Expectations and patients’ experiences of obesity prior to bariatric surgery: a qualitative study

PubMed Central

Homer, Catherine Verity; Thompson, Andrew R; Allmark, Peter; Goyder, Elizabeth

2016-01-01

Objectives This study aimed to understand the experiences and expectations of people seeking bariatric surgery in England and identify implications for behavioural and self-management interventions. Design A qualitative study using modified photovoice methods, triangulating photography with semistructured indepth interviews analysed using framework techniques. Setting Areas served by two bariatric surgery multidisciplinary teams in the north of England. Participants 18 adults (14 women and 4 men) who accepted for bariatric surgery, and were aged between 30 and 61 years. Participants were recruited through hospital-based tier 4 bariatric surgery multidisciplinary teams. Results The experiences of participants indicates the nature and extent of the burden of obesity. Problems included stigmatisation, shame, poor health, physical function and reliance on medications. Participants expected surgery to result in major physical and psychological improvement. They described how this expectation was rooted in their experiences of stigma and shame. These feelings were reinforced by previous unsuccessful weight loss attempts. Participants expected extreme and sometimes unrealistic levels of sustained weight loss, as well as improvements to physical and mental health. The overall desire and expectation of bariatric surgery was of ‘normality’. Participants had received previous support from clinicians and in weight management services. However, they reported that their expectations of surgery had not been reviewed by services, and expectations appeared to be unrealistic. Likewise, their experience of stigmatisation had not been addressed. Conclusions The unrealistic expectations identified here may negatively affect postoperative outcomes. The findings indicate the importance of services addressing feelings of shame and stigmatisation, and modifying patient's expectations and goals for the postoperative period. PMID:26857104

The Heliotail: Theory and Modeling

DOE PAGES

Pogorelov, N. V.

2016-05-31

Physical processes are discussed related to the heliotail which is formed when the solar wind interacts with the local interstellar medium. Although astrotails are commonly observed, the heliotail observations are only indirect. As a consequence, the direct comparison of the observed astrophysical objects and the Sun is impossible. This requires proper theoretical understanding of the heliotail formation and evolution, and numerical simulations in sufficiently large computational boxes. In this paper, we review some previous results related to the heliotail flow and show new simulations which demonstrate that the solar wind collimation inside the Parker spiral field lines diverted by themore » heliopause toward the heliotail is unrealistic. On the contrary, solar cycle effects ensure that the solar wind density reaches its largest values near the solar equatorial plane. We also argue that a realistic heliotail should be very long to account for the observed anisotropy of 1-10 TeV cosmic rays.« less

Computation of Asteroid Proper Elements: Recent Advances

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Knežević, Z.

2017-12-01

The recent advances in computation of asteroid proper elements are briefly reviewed. Although not representing real breakthroughs in computation and stability assessment of proper elements, these advances can still be considered as important improvements offering solutions to some practical problems encountered in the past. The problem of getting unrealistic values of perihelion frequency for very low eccentricity orbits is solved by computing frequencies using the frequency-modified Fourier transform. The synthetic resonant proper elements adjusted to a given secular resonance helped to prove the existence of Astraea asteroid family. The preliminary assessment of stability with time of proper elements computed by means of the analytical theory provides a good indication of their poorer performance with respect to their synthetic counterparts, and advocates in favor of ceasing their regular maintenance; the final decision should, however, be taken on the basis of more comprehensive and reliable direct estimate of their individual and sample average deviations from constancy.

Children: Special Consumers but Not Special Treatment.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Doran, Lee Anne; Dolan, Elizabeth M.

1989-01-01

Reviews several child-related consumer protection issues subject to industry short-sightedness and regulatory manipulation. Indicates that although it may be unrealistic to believe that child-related consumer protection should receive priority, children do merit special consideration as consumers. (JOW)

The use of ecological momentary assessment to test appraisal theories of emotion.

PubMed

Tong, Eddie M W; Bishop, George D; Enkelmann, Hwee Chong; Why, Yong Peng; Diong, Siew Maan; Khader, Majeed; Ang, Jansen

2005-12-01

Although appraisal theories have received strong empirical support, there are methodological concerns about the research, including biased recall, heuristic responding, ethical issues, and weak and unrealistic induction of emotions in laboratories. To provide a more ecologically valid test of appraisal theories, the authors used ecological momentary assessment, in which the emotions and appraisals of Singaporean police officers were measured online over the course of an ordinary workday. The research focused on happiness. Support was obtained for predictions, demonstrating the generalizability of appraisal theories to a nonlaboratory setting and circumventing the shortcomings of previously used methodologies. Also, evidence was obtained that happiness was reported primarily in association with a specific combination of 3 relevant appraisals: high pleasantness, high perceived control, and low moral violation. Copyright (c) 2005 APA, all rights reserved.

Confronting Alternative Cosmological Models with the Highest-Redshift Type Ia Supernovae

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shafer, Daniel; Scolnic, Daniel; Riess, Adam

2018-01-01

High-redshift Type Ia supernovae (SNe Ia) from the HST CANDELS and CLASH programs significantly extend the Hubble diagram with 7 SNe at z > 1.5 suitable for cosmology, including one at z = 2.3. This unique leverage helps us distinguish "alternative" cosmological models from the standard Lambda-CDM model. Analyzing the Pantheon SN compilation, which includes these high-z SNe, we employ model comparison statistics to quantify the extent to which several proposed alternative expansion histories (e.g., empty universe, power law expansion, timescape cosmology) are disfavored even with SN Ia data alone. Using mock data, we demonstrate that some likelihood analyses used in the literature to support these models are sensitive to unrealistic assumptions and are therefore unsuitable for analysis of realistic SN Ia data.

The Role of Economic Uncertainty on the Block Economic Value - a New Valuation Approach / Rola Czynnika Niepewności Przy Obliczaniu Wskaźnika Rentowności - Nowe Podejście

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dehghani, H.; Ataee-Pour, M.

2012-12-01

The block economic value (EV) is one of the most important parameters in mine evaluation. This parameter can affect significant factors such as mining sequence, final pit limit and net present value. Nowadays, the aim of open pit mine planning is to define optimum pit limits and an optimum life of mine production scheduling that maximizes the pit value under some technical and operational constraints. Therefore, it is necessary to calculate the block economic value at the first stage of the mine planning process, correctly. Unrealistic block economic value estimation may cause the mining project managers to make the wrong decision and thus may impose inexpiable losses to the project. The effective parameters such as metal price, operating cost, grade and so forth are always assumed certain in the conventional methods of EV calculation. While, obviously, these parameters have uncertain nature. Therefore, usually, the conventional methods results are far from reality. In order to solve this problem, a new technique is used base on an invented binomial tree which is developed in this research. This method can calculate the EV and project PV under economic uncertainty. In this paper, the EV and project PV were initially determined using Whittle formula based on certain economic parameters and a multivariate binomial tree based on the economic uncertainties such as the metal price and cost uncertainties. Finally the results were compared. It is concluded that applying the metal price and cost uncertainties causes the calculated block economic value and net present value to be more realistic than certain conditions.

Evaluating the performance of coupled snow-soil models in SURFEXv8 to simulate the permafrost thermal regime at a high Arctic site

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Barrere, Mathieu; Domine, Florent; Decharme, Bertrand; Morin, Samuel; Vionnet, Vincent; Lafaysse, Matthieu

2017-09-01

Climate change projections still suffer from a limited representation of the permafrost-carbon feedback. Predicting the response of permafrost temperature to climate change requires accurate simulations of Arctic snow and soil properties. This study assesses the capacity of the coupled land surface and snow models ISBA-Crocus and ISBA-ES to simulate snow and soil properties at Bylot Island, a high Arctic site. Field measurements complemented with ERA-Interim reanalyses were used to drive the models and to evaluate simulation outputs. Snow height, density, temperature, thermal conductivity and thermal insulance are examined to determine the critical variables involved in the soil and snow thermal regime. Simulated soil properties are compared to measurements of thermal conductivity, temperature and water content. The simulated snow density profiles are unrealistic, which is most likely caused by the lack of representation in snow models of the upward water vapor fluxes generated by the strong temperature gradients within the snowpack. The resulting vertical profiles of thermal conductivity are inverted compared to observations, with high simulated values at the bottom of the snowpack. Still, ISBA-Crocus manages to successfully simulate the soil temperature in winter. Results are satisfactory in summer, but the temperature of the top soil could be better reproduced by adequately representing surface organic layers, i.e., mosses and litter, and in particular their water retention capacity. Transition periods (soil freezing and thawing) are the least well reproduced because the high basal snow thermal conductivity induces an excessively rapid heat transfer between the soil and the snow in simulations. Hence, global climate models should carefully consider Arctic snow thermal properties, and especially the thermal conductivity of the basal snow layer, to perform accurate predictions of the permafrost evolution under climate change.

Mentoring Emotionally Sensitive Individuals.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Shaughnessy, Michael F.; Self, Elizabeth

Mentoring individuals who are gifted, talented, and creative, but somewhat emotionally sensitive is a challenging and provocative arena. Several reasons individuals experience heightened sensitivity include: lack of nurturing, abuse, alcoholism in the family, low self-esteem, unrealistic parental expectations, and parental pressure to achieve.…

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Mills, Evan

Large numbers of commercial buildings have sought to improve their energy and environmental performance, with half of all leasable U.S. offices now designated at some level of “green”. All proper/es fall somewhere on the green/high-­performance spectrum (above and below average) whether or not they bear a formal label or ra/ng.1 Variations in the level of performance can either positively or negatively influence value. This component of value can be shaped by many factors, from utility costs to tenant/owner preferences that translate into income (rent levels, vacancy rates, lease-­up /mes, etc.). Occupant perceptions of indoor environmental quality are another potential influencemore » on value. While there has been little uptake of this thinking by practicing appraisers, the increased prevalence of green/HP practices combined with concerns about appraiser competency are compelling the industry to adapt their traditional techniques to this new driver of value. However, the overly narrow focus of policymakers on appraisal of labeled or rated exemplary buildings (e.g., LEED or ENERGY STAR Certified) represents a significant missed opportunity. Any level of green or energy performance can in fact influence value, including below-­average performance (a.k.a. “brown discount”), irrespec/ve of whether or not the building has been formally rated. Another surmountable challenge is the limitations to non-­appraisers’ understanding of the appraisal process (and constraints therein). A crucial byproduct of this is unrealistic expectations of what appraisers can and will do in the marketplace. This report identifies opportunities for catalyzing improvement of the green/HP appraisal process, which apply to all involved actors—from owner, report-­ordering client, the appraiser, and the appraisal reviewer—and fostering more demand for appraisals that recognize green/HP property attributes. The intended audience is primarily the public policy community and other stakeholders outside the formal appraisal community who can contribute to the broader effort to advance professional practces. The discussion begins with a descripton of the appraisal process and the points at which green/HP consideratons can enter the analysis. A series of major barriers to better practces are identfied along with approaches to reducing them.« less

Commercial Off-The-Shelf (COTS) Parts Risk and Reliability User and Application Guide

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

White, Mark

2017-01-01

All COTS parts are not created equal. Because they are not created equal, the notion that one can force the commercial industry to follow a set of military specifications and standards, along with the certifications, audits and qualification commitments that go with them, is unrealistic for the sale of a few parts. The part technologies that are Defense Logistics Agency (DLA) certified or Military Specification (MS) qualified, are several generations behind the state-of-the-art high-performance parts that are required for the compact, higher performing systems for the next generation of spacecraft and instruments. The majority of the part suppliers are focused on the portion of the market that is producing high-tech commercial products and systems. To that end, in order to compete in the high performance and leading edge advanced technological systems, an alternative approach to risk assessment and reliability prediction must be considered.

Emergency Notification Strategy

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Katsouros, Mark

2014-01-01

In higher education, the IT department is often the service provider for the institution's emergency notification system (ENS). For many institutions, the complexity of providing emergency notification to students, faculty, and staff makes using a local, on-premise solution unrealistic. But finding the right commercially hosted technical solution…

Teaching the Modern Presidency.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Rimmerman, Craig A.

1989-01-01

Stresses the need to challenge students' unrealistic ideas and heightened expectations of U.S. presidential performance. Maintains that college courses about the presidency must stress the role of the president within the context of democratic accountability, Madisonian principles, and the separation of powers doctrine. Discusses presidential…

The Futile Search for a Theory of Learning Disabilities.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Blachman, Benita A.

1988-01-01

In response to a previous article, the paper suggests it is unrealistic to expect one theory or even multiple theories within one paradigm to explain learning disabilities. The emphasis on reaching a consensus regarding theory or paradigm is seen as unproductive. (DB)

Plagiarism and Responsibility.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Martin, Brian

1984-01-01

There are several kinds of plagiarism, and its significance varies with its circumstances. College administrations seem to avoid responsibility for examining allegations of academic plagiarism, and few procedures exist for addressing them. Until standard and open procedures are established and accepted, rigid and unrealistic attitudes will prevail…

Not-So-Great Expectations.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Rank, Hugh

Too many people become disillusioned by political language because they start with illusions about it--erroneous ideas and unrealistic expectations. It is better to start with realistic attitudes, practical information, and not-so-great expectations. When dealing with political language, expect (1) conflict, arguments and disagreements, and…

Preventing Marketing Efforts That Bomb.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Sevier, Robert A.

2000-01-01

In a marketplace overwhelmed with messages, too many institutions waste money on ineffective marketing. Highlights five common marketing errors: limited definition of marketing; unwillingness to address strategic issues; no supporting data; fuzzy goals and directions; and unrealistic expectations, time lines, and budgets. Though trustees are not…

Surgeons' Perceived Barriers to Palliative and End-of-Life Care: A Mixed Methods Study of a Surgical Society.

PubMed

Suwanabol, Pasithorn A; Reichstein, Ari C; Suzer-Gurtekin, Z Tuba; Forman, Jane; Silveira, Maria J; Mody, Lona; Morris, Arden M

2018-06-01

Nearly 20% of colorectal cancer (CRC) patients present with potentially incurable (Stage IV) disease, yet their physicians do not integrate cancer treatment with palliative care. Compared with patients treated by primary providers, surgical patients with terminal diseases are significantly less likely to receive palliative or end-of-life care. To describe surgeon perspectives on palliative and end-of-life care for patients with Stage IV CRCs. This is a convergent mixed methods study using a validated survey instrument from the Critical Care Peer Workgroup of the Robert Wood Johnson Foundation's Promoting Excellence in End-of-Life Care Project with additional qualitative questions. Participants were all current, nonretired members of the American Society of Colon and Rectal Surgeons. Surgeon-perceived barriers to palliative and end-of-life care for patients with Stage IV CRCs were identified. Among 131 Internet survey respondents (response rate 16.5%), 76.1% reported no formal education in palliative care, and specifically noted inadequate training in techniques to forgo life-sustaining measures (37.9%) and communication (42.7%). Over half (61.8%) of surgeons cited unrealistic expectations among patients and families as a barrier to care, which also limited discussion of palliation. At the system level, absence of documentation, appropriate processes, and culture hindered the initiation of palliative care. Thematic analysis of open-ended questions confirmed and extended these findings through the following major barriers to palliative and end-of-life care: (1) surgeon knowledge and training; (2) communication challenges; (3) difficulty with prognostication; (4) patient and family factors encompassing unrealistic expectations and discordant preferences; and (5) systemic issues including culture and lack of documentation and appropriate resources. Generalizability is limited by the small sample size inherent to Internet surveys, which may contribute to selection bias. Surgeons valued palliative and end-of-life care but reported multilevel barriers to its provision. These data will inform strategies to reduce these perceived barriers.

The effect of horizontal resolution on simulation quality in the Community Atmospheric Model, CAM5.1

DOE PAGES

Wehner, Michael F.; Reed, Kevin A.; Li, Fuyu; ...

2014-10-13

We present an analysis of version 5.1 of the Community Atmospheric Model (CAM5.1) at a high horizontal resolution. Intercomparison of this global model at approximately 0.25°, 1°, and 2° is presented for extreme daily precipitation as well as for a suite of seasonal mean fields. In general, extreme precipitation amounts are larger in high resolution than in lower-resolution configurations. In many but not all locations and/or seasons, extreme daily precipitation rates in the high-resolution configuration are higher and more realistic. The high-resolution configuration produces tropical cyclones up to category 5 on the Saffir-Simpson scale and a comparison to observations revealsmore » both realistic and unrealistic model behavior. In the absence of extensive model tuning at high resolution, simulation of many of the mean fields analyzed in this study is degraded compared to the tuned lower-resolution public released version of the model.« less

Ultra-accelerated natural sunlight exposure testing

DOEpatents

Jorgensen, Gary J.; Bingham, Carl; Goggin, Rita; Lewandowski, Allan A.; Netter, Judy C.

2000-06-13

Process and apparatus for providing ultra accelerated natural sunlight exposure testing of samples under controlled weathering without introducing unrealistic failure mechanisms in exposed materials and without breaking reciprocity relationships between flux exposure levels and cumulative dose that includes multiple concurrent levels of temperature and relative humidity at high levels of natural sunlight comprising: a) concentrating solar flux uniformly; b) directing the controlled uniform sunlight onto sample materials in a chamber enclosing multiple concurrent levels of temperature and relative humidity to allow the sample materials to be subjected to accelerated irradiance exposure factors for a sufficient period of time in days to provide a corresponding time of about at least a years worth of representative weathering of the sample materials.

Evaluating the effects of a peer-support model: reducing negative body esteem and disordered eating attitudes and behaviours in grade eight girls.

PubMed

Thompson, Carmen; Russell-Mayhew, Shelly; Saraceni, Reana

2012-01-01

During adolescence girls become increasingly preoccupied with unrealistic ideals about body weight, often leading to dieting and unhealthy compensatory behaviours. These practices have been linked to adverse psychological, social, and health consequences. Peer-support groups offer promise in addressing risk factors for disordered eating. This study explored the effects of peer-support on measures of body satisfaction, weight loss/weight gain behaviour, internalization of media ideals, weight based teasing, and communication, for a cohort of grade 8 girls. High-risk participants demonstrated trends toward decreased internalization of media ideals and increased body satisfaction at post-test. Implications and future research direction are discussed.

Reported association of air pollution and suicide rate could be confounded.

PubMed

Afshari, R

2017-02-28

A statistical association between ambient air pollution and suicide mortality has been recently reported in Environmental Health, which seems not to be scientifically supported by their data.In this article, very low (unrealistic) suicide rate is reported, which is subjected to selection bias. Their justification is also flawed as high exposure to ambient air pollution in rural areas is lower as compared to urban residents. Weekends, holidays, time of death … are also both air pollution and suicide rate related. Reported statistical association of air pollution and suicide in this study is heavily confound.Please see article under discussion: https://ehjournal.biomedcentral.com/articles/10.1186/s12940-016-0177-1 .

Studies of Martian polar regions. [using CO2 flow

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Smith, C. I.; Clark, B. R.; Eschman, D. F.

1974-01-01

The flow law determined experimentally for solid CO2 establishes that an hypothesis of glacial flow of CO2 at the Martian poles is not physically unrealistic. Compression experiments carried out under 1 atmosphere pressure and constant strain rate conditions demonstrate that the strength of CO2 near its sublimation point is considerably less than the strength of water ice near its melting point. A plausible glacial model for the Martian polar caps was constructed. The CO2 deposited near the pole would have flowed outward laterally to relieve high internal shear stresses. The topography of the polar caps, and the uniform layering and general extent of the layered deposits were explained using this model.

To the Question about the Quality of Economic Education

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Dyshaeva, Lyudmila

2015-01-01

The article discusses the shortcomings of the methodology of neoclassical theory as a basic theory determining the content of contemporary economic theory course at Russian educational institutions namely unrealistic conditions of perfect competition, rationality of economic behavior of business entities, completeness and authenticity of…

A Study of Children's Interests in Words.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Frymier, Jack

1987-01-01

Examines the Macmillan "Spelling" books in terms of the concept of "hyperrationalization": the imposing of unproven techniques and/or the setting of unrealistic expectations. Explicates the assumptions and beliefs implicit in the "Spelling" books and studies children's interests in the words and concepts in the…

Sociological Factors in the Development of Eating Disorders.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Nagel, K. L.; Jones, Karen H.

1992-01-01

Reviews sociocultural, socioeconomic, and sex-related factors which contribute to development of eating disorders. Recommends that professionals help adolescents resist societal pressure to conform to unrealistic standards of appearance and provide guidance on nutrition, realistic body ideals, and achievement of self-esteem, self-efficacy,…

Pupils Today: Greater Stress and Frustrations.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Neuber, Manfred, Ed.

1988-01-01

This article reports on a survey of West German elementary and secondary school students undertaken to discover their opinions of the West German educational system. Their primary criticism was directed toward: (1) scholastic performance pressure; (2) unrealistic learning objectives; and (3) unsympathetic teachers. Older students were more…

Sport without Frontiers: Just an Unrealistic Wish?

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Koch, Mathias

1990-01-01

Describes and recommends the project, Sports without Frontiers, as a useful tool in the integration of foreign immigrants. Suggests that employment of foreigners in West Germany's job market means the needs of foreigners must be addressed. Argues this program promotes social integration through sports. (NL)

Moving from the laboratory to the field: Adding natural environmental conditions to toxicology testing

EPA Science Inventory

While laboratory toxicology tests are generally easy to perform, cost effective and readily interpreted, they have been criticized for being unrealistic. In contrast, field tests are considered realistic while producing results that are difficult to interpret and expensive. To ...

Will Your Walls Come Crumbling Down?

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Dunn, John A., Jr.

1990-01-01

The magnitude of funds needed to rectify the college deferred maintenance crisis make a quick fix unrealistic. However, by increasing funding levels and shifting spending patterns over time, institutions can address the problem without jeopardizing other goals and projects. A consortium of higher education associations recommends a…

Personality, Self-Regulated Learning, and Academic Entitlement

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

McLellan, Chelsea K.; Jackson, Dennis L.

2017-01-01

The current study explored the relation between the Big-Five personality domains, self-regulated learning, and academic entitlement. Academic entitlement is defined as the tendency to possess expectations of unearned academic success, unearned/undeserved academic services, and/or the expectation of unrealistic accommodation (Chowning and Campbell…

Humanizing Blindness through Public Education.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Augusto, C. R.; McGraw, J. M.

1990-01-01

Public attitudes toward blindness are shaped by limited contacts with visually impaired people and unrealistic portrayals of blind people in the media. Proactive efforts including national and local public education programs are needed to change stereotyped thinking, humanize blindness, and lead to greater opportunities for fuller participation in…

Preschoolers can infer general rules governing fantastical events in fiction.

PubMed

Van de Vondervoort, Julia W; Friedman, Ori

2014-05-01

Young children are frequently exposed to fantastic fiction. How do they make sense of the unrealistic and impossible events that occur in such fiction? Although children could view such events as isolated episodes, the present experiments suggest that children use such events to infer general fantasy rules. In 2 experiments, 2- to 4-year-olds were shown scenarios in which 2 animals behaved unrealistically (N = 78 in Experiment 1, N = 94 in Experiment 2). When asked to predict how other animals in the fiction would behave, children predicted novel behaviors consistent with the nature of the fiction. These findings suggest that preschoolers can infer the general rules that govern the events and entities in fantastic fiction and can use these rules to predict what events will happen in the fiction. The findings also provide evidence that children may infer fantasy rules at a more superordinate level than the basic level. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2014 APA, all rights reserved).

Realism of modelled Indian summer monsoon correlation with the tropical Indo-Pacific affects projected monsoon changes.

PubMed

Li, Ziguang; Lin, Xiaopei; Cai, Wenju

2017-07-10

El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) tend to exert an offsetting impact on Indian summer monsoon rainfall (ISMR), with an El Niño event tending to lower, whereas a positive IOD tending to increase ISMR. Simulation of these relationships in Phase Five of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project has not been fully assessed, nor is their impact on the response of ISMR to greenhouse warming. Here we show that the majority of models simulate an unrealistic present-day IOD-ISMR correlation due to an overly strong control by ENSO. As such, a positive IOD is associated with an ISMR reduction in the simulated present-day climate. This unrealistic present-day correlation is relevant to future ISMR projection, inducing an underestimation in the projected ISMR increase. Thus uncertainties in ISMR projection can be in part induced by present-day simulation of ENSO, the IOD, their relationship and their rainfall correlations.

Accident frequency and unrealistic optimism: Children's assessment of risk.

PubMed

Joshi, Mary Sissons; Maclean, Morag; Stevens, Claire

2018-02-01

Accidental injury is a major cause of mortality and morbidity among children, warranting research on their risk perceptions. Three hundred and seven children aged 10-11 years assessed the frequency, danger and personal risk likelihood of 8 accidents. Two social-cognitive biases were manifested. The frequency of rare accidents (e.g. drowning) was overestimated, and the frequency of common accidents (e.g. bike accidents) underestimated; and the majority of children showed unrealistic optimism tending to see themselves as less likely to suffer these accidents in comparison to their peers, offering superior skills or parental control of the environment as an explanation. In the case of pedestrian accidents, children recognised their seriousness, underestimated the frequency of this risk and regarded their own road crossing skill as protection. These findings highlight the challenging task facing safety educators who, when teaching conventional safety knowledge and routines, also need to alert children to the danger of over-confidence without disabling them though fear. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Quality Control Methodology Of A Surface Wind Observational Database In North Eastern North America

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lucio-Eceiza, Etor E.; Fidel González-Rouco, J.; Navarro, Jorge; Conte, Jorge; Beltrami, Hugo

2016-04-01

This work summarizes the design and application of a Quality Control (QC) procedure for an observational surface wind database located in North Eastern North America. The database consists of 526 sites (486 land stations and 40 buoys) with varying resolutions of hourly, 3 hourly and 6 hourly data, compiled from three different source institutions with uneven measurement units and changing measuring procedures, instrumentation and heights. The records span from 1953 to 2010. The QC process is composed of different phases focused either on problems related with the providing source institutions or measurement errors. The first phases deal with problems often related with data recording and management: (1) compilation stage dealing with the detection of typographical errors, decoding problems, site displacements and unification of institutional practices; (2) detection of erroneous data sequence duplications within a station or among different ones; (3) detection of errors related with physically unrealistic data measurements. The last phases are focused on instrumental errors: (4) problems related with low variability, placing particular emphasis on the detection of unrealistic low wind speed records with the help of regional references; (5) high variability related erroneous records; (6) standardization of wind speed record biases due to changing measurement heights, detection of wind speed biases on week to monthly timescales, and homogenization of wind direction records. As a result, around 1.7% of wind speed records and 0.4% of wind direction records have been deleted, making a combined total of 1.9% of removed records. Additionally, around 15.9% wind speed records and 2.4% of wind direction data have been also corrected.

Immunization of complex networks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pastor-Satorras, Romualdo; Vespignani, Alessandro

2002-03-01

Complex networks such as the sexual partnership web or the Internet often show a high degree of redundancy and heterogeneity in their connectivity properties. This peculiar connectivity provides an ideal environment for the spreading of infective agents. Here we show that the random uniform immunization of individuals does not lead to the eradication of infections in all complex networks. Namely, networks with scale-free properties do not acquire global immunity from major epidemic outbreaks even in the presence of unrealistically high densities of randomly immunized individuals. The absence of any critical immunization threshold is due to the unbounded connectivity fluctuations of scale-free networks. Successful immunization strategies can be developed only by taking into account the inhomogeneous connectivity properties of scale-free networks. In particular, targeted immunization schemes, based on the nodes' connectivity hierarchy, sharply lower the network's vulnerability to epidemic attacks.

Collective narcissism and its social consequences.

PubMed

de Zavala, Agnieszka Golec; Cichocka, Aleksandra; Eidelson, Roy; Jayawickreme, Nuwan

2009-12-01

This article introduces the concept of collective narcissism--an emotional investment in an unrealistic belief about the in group's greatness--aiming to explain how feelings about an ingroup shape a tendency to aggress against outgroups. The results of 5 studies indicate that collective, but not individual, narcissism predicts intergroup aggressiveness. Collective narcissism is related to high private and low public collective self-esteem and low implicit group esteem. It predicts perceived threat from outgroups, unwillingness to forgive outgroups, preference for military aggression over and above social dominance orientation, right-wing authoritarianism, and blind patriotism. The relationship between collective narcissism and aggressiveness is mediated by perceived threat from outgroups and perceived insult to the ingroup. In sum, the results indicate that collective narcissism is a form of high but ambivalent group esteem related to sensitivity to threats to the ingroup's image and retaliatory aggression.

Wind assistance: A requirement for migration of shorebirds?

USGS Publications Warehouse

Butler, Robert W.; Williams, Tony D.; Warnock, Nils; Bishop, Mary Anne

1997-01-01

We investigated the importance of wind-assisted flight for northward (spring) migration by Western Sandpipers (Calidris mauri) along the Pacific Coast of North America. Using current models of energy costs of flight and recent data on the phenology of migration, we estimated the energy (fat) requirements for migration in calm winds and with wind-assisted flight for different rates of fat deposition: (1) a variable rate, assuming that birds deposit the minimum amount of fat required to reach the next stopover site; (2) a constant maximum rate of 1.0 g/day; and (3) a lower constant rate of 0.4 g/day. We tested these models by comparing conservative estimates of predicted body mass along the migration route with empirical data on body mass of Western Sandpipers at different stopover sites and upon arrival at the breeding grounds. In calm conditions, birds would have to deposit unrealistically high amounts of fat (up to 330% of observed values) to maintain body mass above absolute lean mass values. Fat-deposition rates of 1.0 g/day and 0.4 g/day, in calm conditions, resulted in a steady decline in body mass along the migration route, with predicted body masses on arrival in Alaska of only 60% (13.6 g) and 26% (5.9 g) of average lean mass (22.7 g). Conversely, birds migrating with wind assistance would be able to complete migration with fat-deposition rates as low as 0.4 g/day, similar to values reported for this size bird from field studies. Our results extend the conclusion of the importance of winds for large, long-distance migrants to a small, short-distance migrant. We suggest that the migratory decisions of birds are more strongly influenced by the frequency and duration of winds aloft, i.e. by events during the flight phase, than by events during the stopover phase of migration, such as fat-deposition rate, that have been the focus of much recent migration theory.

Obtaining evidence for use by healthcare payers on the success of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease management.

PubMed

Mapel, D; Pearson, M

2002-08-01

Healthcare payers make decisions on funding for treatments for diseases, such as chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD), on a population level, so require evidence of treatment success in appropriate populations, using usual routine care as the comparison for alternative management approaches. Such health outcomes evidence can be obtained from a number of sources. The 'gold standard' method for obtaining evidence of treatment success is usually taken as the randomized controlled prospective clinical trial. Yet the value of such studies in providing evidence for decision-makers can be questioned due to the restricted entry criteria limiting the ability to generalize to real life populations, narrow focus on individual parameters, use of placebo for comparison rather than usual therapy and unrealistic intense monitoring of patients. Evidence obtained from retrospective and observational studies can supplement that from randomized clinical trials, providing that care is taken to guard against bias and confounders. However, very large numbers of patients must be investigated if small differences between drugs and treatment approaches are to be detected. Administrative databases from healthcare systems provide an opportunity to obtain observational data on large numbers of patients. Such databases have shown that high healthcare costs in patients with COPD are associated with co-morbid conditions and current smoking status. Analysis of an administrative database has also shown that elderly patients with COPD who received inhaled corticosteroids within 90 days of discharge from hospital had 24% fewer repeat hospitalizations for COPD and were 29% less likely to die during the 1-year follow-up period. In conclusion, there are a number of sources of meaningful evidence of the health outcomes arising from different therapeutic approaches that should be of value to healthcare payers making decisions on resource allocation.

Survey on eating disorder-related thoughts, behaviors, and their relationship with food intake and nutritional status in female high school students in Taiwan.

PubMed

Chang, Yu-Jhen; Lin, Wei; Wong, Yueching

2011-02-01

Eating disorders are now a global health problem for adolescents and young female adults. The level of eating disorders among young female adults is growing in Asian countries. Therefore, the purpose of this study was to investigate body image, weight concerns, eating attitudes, dietary intake, and nutritional status related to eating disorders of female high school students in Taiwan. A total of 1605 female high school students participated in this study. The written questionnaire included respondents' demographics and weight concerns, the Eating Attitudes Test-26 (EAT-26), and 24-hour dietary recall. Blood chemistry data were also collected. The data were analyzed using a Student t test, χ(2) analysis, and logistic regression. Disturbed eating attitudes and behaviors were found in 17.11% of participants (measured by an EAT-26 score ≥20). Logistic regression analyses showed that disturbed eating attitudes/behaviors were significantly associated with overestimation of body weight, unrealistic body weight goal, dissatisfaction with body weight, and weight loss experiences. The reported intakes of energy, protein, carbohydrate, zinc, and vitamins B6 and B12 were significantly lower in participants with disturbed eating patterns than in participants without disturbance issues. Conversely, participants with disturbed eating patterns had higher dietary and crude fiber intake than participants without disturbed eating issues. The percentage of participants with abnormal values of total iron-binding capacity and serum iron was significantly higher in those with disturbed eating patterns than in those without disturbed eating patterns. Disturbed eating attitudes/behaviors exist among female adolescents in Taiwan, and these behaviors jeopardize their nutritional status. The possibility of using the EAT-26 as a reference to predict the quality and quantity of food intake among female adolescents is worthy of further study.

Triple surveillance: a proposal for an integrated strategy to support and accelerate birth defect prevention.

PubMed

Botto, Lorenzo D; Mastroiacovo, Pierpaolo

2018-02-01

Preventing neural tube defects (NTDs) easily qualifies as a high-value opportunity to improve childhood survival and health: the unmet need is significant (major preventable burden), the intervention is transformative (providing sufficient folic acid), and delivery strategies (e.g., fortification) are effective in low-resource countries. Yet, NTD prevention is lagging. Can public health surveillance help fix this problem? Critics contend that surveillance is largely unnecessary, that limited resources are best spent on interventions, and that surveillance is unrealistic in developing countries. The counterargument is twofold: (1) in the absence of surveillance, interventions will provide fewer benefits and cost more and (2) effective surveillance is likely possible nearly everywhere, with appropriate strategies. As a base strategy, we propose "triple surveillance:" integrating surveillance of cause (folate insufficiency), of disease occurrence (NTD prevalence), and of health outcomes (morbidity, mortality, and disability). For better sustainability and usefulness, it is crucial to refocus and streamline surveillance activities (no recreational data collection), weave surveillance into clinical care (integrate in clinical workflow), and, later, work on including additional risk factors and pediatric outcomes (increase benefits at low marginal cost). By doing so, surveillance becomes not a roadblock but a preferential path to prevention and better care. © 2018 The Authors. Annals of the New York Academy of Sciences published by Wiley Periodicals, Inc. on behalf of New York Academy of Sciences.

Introducing GFWED: The Global Fire Weather Database

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Field, R. D.; Spessa, A. C.; Aziz, N. A.; Camia, A.; Cantin, A.; Carr, R.; de Groot, W. J.; Dowdy, A. J.; Flannigan, M. D.; Manomaiphiboon, K.;

The Real World of the Beginning Teacher.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

National Education Association, Washington, DC. National Commission on Teacher Education and Professional Standards.

Problems and goals of beginning teachers are the subject of these speeches presented by both experienced and beginning teachers at the 1965 national conference of the National Commission on Teacher Education and Professional Standards. The problems include the differences between teacher expectations and encounters, unrealistic teaching and…

Cognitive Restructuring and a Collaborative Set in Couples' Work.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Huber, Charles H.; Milstein, Barbara

1985-01-01

Investigated effects of cognitive restructuring efforts to modify unrealistic beliefs of marital partners in 17 couples. Treatment program sought to impact proactively upon positive therapeutic expectations and relationship goals and enhanced base level of marital satisfaction. On all outcome measures, treatment group (N=9 couples) showed…

Evaluation of air-liquid interface exposure systems for in vitro assessment of airborne pollutants

EPA Science Inventory

Exposure of cells to airborne pollutants at the air-liquid interface (ALI) is a more realistic approach than exposures of submerged cells. The published literature, however, describes irreproducible and/or unrealistic experimental conditions using ALI systems. We have compared fi...

Interpreting the New Sexual Harassment Guidelines.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Hoyman, Michele; Robinson, Ronda

1980-01-01

Discusses sexual harrassment guidelines which legally define the term as sex discrimination. While this is good for those facing harassment, it unrealistically places a socially-based problem on the shoulders of personnel managers. Points out the long-term benefits of a workplace free from harassment and intimidation. (JOW)

The Celebrity Family: A Clinical Perspective.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Mitchell, Gary; Cronson, Harold

1987-01-01

Identifies characteristics of the celebrity family, examining issues of confidentiality and trust, family boundaries, parenting roles, unrealistic expectations of and for the children, and family isolation. Describes the family as entering into a tacit contract enabling the celebrity to pursue his/her career by relinquishing the parental role to…

The Use of Vignettes to Empower Effective Responses to Attempted Sexual Assault

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Allen, Kaylie T.; Meadows, Elizabeth A.

2017-01-01

Objective: Women assertively resisting sexual aggression have the best chances of avoiding completed rape. Especially with acquaintances, there are significant social and psychological barriers to resistance. Novel vignettes depicting acquaintance rape were designed to enhance self-efficacy, reduce unrealistic optimism, and empower assertive…

Adjusting Estimates of the Expected Value of Information for Implementation: Theoretical Framework and Practical Application.

PubMed

Andronis, Lazaros; Barton, Pelham M

2016-04-01

Value of information (VoI) calculations give the expected benefits of decision making under perfect information (EVPI) or sample information (EVSI), typically on the premise that any treatment recommendations made in light of this information will be implemented instantly and fully. This assumption is unlikely to hold in health care; evidence shows that obtaining further information typically leads to "improved" rather than "perfect" implementation. To present a method of calculating the expected value of further research that accounts for the reality of improved implementation. This work extends an existing conceptual framework by introducing additional states of the world regarding information (sample information, in addition to current and perfect information) and implementation (improved implementation, in addition to current and optimal implementation). The extension allows calculating the "implementation-adjusted" EVSI (IA-EVSI), a measure that accounts for different degrees of implementation. Calculations of implementation-adjusted estimates are illustrated under different scenarios through a stylized case study in non-small cell lung cancer. In the particular case study, the population values for EVSI and IA-EVSI were £ 25 million and £ 8 million, respectively; thus, a decision assuming perfect implementation would have overestimated the expected value of research by about £ 17 million. IA-EVSI was driven by the assumed time horizon and, importantly, the specified rate of change in implementation: the higher the rate, the greater the IA-EVSI and the lower the difference between IA-EVSI and EVSI. Traditionally calculated measures of population VoI rely on unrealistic assumptions about implementation. This article provides a simple framework that accounts for improved, rather than perfect, implementation and offers more realistic estimates of the expected value of research. © The Author(s) 2015.

Narcissistic personality and risk perception among Chinese aviators: The mediating role of promotion focus.

PubMed

Ju, Chengting; Ji, Ming; Lan, Jijun; You, Xuqun

2017-12-01

Optimism bias is a crucial feature of risk perception that leads to increased risk-taking behaviour, which is a particularly salient issue among pilots in aviation settings due to the high-stakes nature of flight. The current study sought to address the roles of narcissism and promotion focus on optimism bias in risk perception in aviation context. Participants were 239 male flight cadets from the Civil Aviation Flight University of China who completed the Narcissistic Personality Inventory-13, the Work Regulatory Focus Scale, and an indirect measure of unrealistic optimism in risk perception, which measured risk perception for the individual and the risk assumed by other individuals performing the same task. Higher narcissism increased the likelihood of underestimating personal risks, an effect that was mediated by high promotion focus motivation, such that high narcissism led to high promotion focus motivation. The findings have important implications for improving the accuracy of risk perception in aviation risks among aviators. © 2016 International Union of Psychological Science.

The Future of Fossil Fuels: A Century of Abundance or a Century of Decline?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nelder, C.

2012-12-01

Horizontal drilling, hydraulic fracturing, and other advanced technologies have spawned a host of new euphoric forecasts of hydrocarbon abundance. Yet although the world's remaining oil and gas resources are enormous, most of them are destined to stay in the ground due to real-world constraints on price, flow rates, investor appetite, supply chain security, resource quality, and global economic conditions. While laboring under the mistaken belief that it sits atop a 100-year supply of natural gas, the U.S. is contemplating exporting nearly all of its shale gas production even as that production is already flattening due to poor economics. Instead of bringing "energy independence" to the U.S. and making it the top oil exporter, unrestricted drilling for tight oil and in the federal outer continental shelf would cut the lifespan of U.S. oil production in half and make it the world's most desperate oil importer by mid-century. And current forecasts for Canadian tar sands production are as unrealistic as their failed predecessors. Over the past century, world energy production has moved progressively from high quality resources with high production rates and low costs to lower quality resources with lower production rates and higher costs, and that progression is accelerating. Soon we will discover the limits of practical extraction, as production costs exceed consumer price tolerance. Oil and gas from tight formations, shale, bitumen, kerogen, coalbeds, deepwater, and the Arctic are not the stuff of new abundance, but the oil junkie's last dirty fix. This session will highlight the gap between the story the industry tells about our energy future, and the story the data tells about resource size, production rates, costs, and consumer price tolerance. It will show why it's time to put aside unrealistic visions of continued dependence on fossil fuels, face up to a century of decline, and commit ourselves to energy and transportation transition.

Opportunities and challenges for collaborative funding with industry

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Thompson, J. F.

2014-12-01

The discovery and extraction of natural resources represents major challenges on both technical and socio-political fronts. Societal demand for commodities continues to increase as population, infrastructure, energy demands and standards of living increase. In parallel, society expects more efficient, cleaner and more sustainable practices. There are therefore multiple incentives for industry to invest in research and innovation to meet these fundamental goals. Natural resource companies fund research internally and externally but the focus, approach and level of funding varies considerably among sectors, companies and disciplines. The wide variety of philosophies creates difficulties for those who seek to work with industry. Most funding arrangement are built through extensive engagement, opportunities to leverage funds particularly in higher risk or less well defined areas (e.g., geoscience), and the attraction of meeting potential new high quality employees. Barriers to funding include unrealistic perceptions of confidentiality issues in industry, bureaucracy and unrealistic IP constraints in academia, and onerous overhead charges by universities that vastly exceed those charged by consulting and contract researchers. Academics and students can benefit immensely from productive research arrangements with industry, but understanding realistic expectations on both sides is critical. Although funding from industry may introduce constraints, some companies are willing to take a virtual hands-off approach in support of quality science. Selecting the appropriate researchers and methodology is important; it takes time for students to become effective and some problems are simply not suited to graduate research, or even academia. Some Governments play an enormous role in facilitating collaborative research with industry while others struggle to differentiate programs that encourage investment from those that unfairly subsidize industry. The traditional Government role in the provision of geoscientific data to serve society and underpin high risk exploration has diminished in many jurisdictions and new innovative partnerships and collaborative research and development approaches are required to fill these gaps and hence meet societal needs for commodities.

The role of elasticity in simulating long-term tectonic extension

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Olive, Jean-Arthur; Behn, Mark D.; Mittelstaedt, Eric; Ito, Garrett; Klein, Benjamin Z.

2016-05-01

While elasticity is a defining characteristic of the Earth's lithosphere, it is often ignored in numerical models of long-term tectonic processes in favour of a simpler viscoplastic description. Here we assess the consequences of this assumption on a well-studied geodynamic problem: the growth of normal faults at an extensional plate boundary. We conduct 2-D numerical simulations of extension in elastoplastic and viscoplastic layers using a finite difference, particle-in-cell numerical approach. Our models simulate a range of faulted layer thicknesses and extension rates, allowing us to quantify the role of elasticity on three key observables: fault-induced topography, fault rotation, and fault life span. In agreement with earlier studies, simulations carried out in elastoplastic layers produce rate-independent lithospheric flexure accompanied by rapid fault rotation and an inverse relationship between fault life span and faulted layer thickness. By contrast, models carried out with a viscoplastic lithosphere produce results that may qualitatively resemble the elastoplastic case, but depend strongly on the product of extension rate and layer viscosity U × ηL. When this product is high, fault growth initially generates little deformation of the footwall and hanging wall blocks, resulting in unrealistic, rigid block-offset in topography across the fault. This configuration progressively transitions into a regime where topographic decay associated with flexure is fully accommodated within the numerical domain. In addition, high U × ηL favours the sequential growth of multiple short-offset faults as opposed to a large-offset detachment. We interpret these results by comparing them to an analytical model for the fault-induced flexure of a thin viscous plate. The key to understanding the viscoplastic model results lies in the rate-dependence of the flexural wavelength of a viscous plate, and the strain rate dependence of the force increase associated with footwall and hanging wall bending. This behaviour produces unrealistic deformation patterns that can hinder the geological relevance of long-term rifting models that assume a viscoplastic rheology.

Free-tropospheric BrO investigations based on GOME

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Post, P.; van Roozendael, M.; Backman, L.; Damski, J.; Thölix, L.; Fayt, C.; Taalas, P.

2003-04-01

Bromine compounds contribute significantly to the stratospheric ozone depletion. However measurements of most bromine compounds are sparse or non-existent, and experimental studies essentially rely on BrO observations. The differences between balloon and ground based measurements of stratospheric BrO columns and satellite total column measurements are too large to be explained by measurement uncertainties. Therefore, it has been assumed that there is a concentration of BrO in the free troposphere of about 1-3 ppt. In a previous work, we have calculated the tropospheric BrO abundance as the difference between total BrO and stratospheric BrO columns. The total vertical column densities of BrO are extracted from GOME measurements using IASB-BIRA algorithms. The stratospheric amount has been calculated using chemical transport models (CTM). Results from SLIMCAT and FinROSE simulations are used for this purpose. SLIMCAT is a widely used 3D CTM that has been tested against balloon measurements. FinROSE is a 3D CTM developed at FMI. We have tried several different tropospheric BrO profiles. Our results show that a profile with high BrO concentrations in the boundary layer usually gives unrealistically high tropospheric column values over areas of low albedo (like oceans). This suggests that the tropospheric BrO would be predominantly distributed in the free troposphere. In this work, attempts are made to identify the signature of a free tropospheric BrO content when comparing cloudy and non-cloudy scenes. The possible impact of orography on measured BrO columns is also investigated.

Communicating to Build Trust and Confidence

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Olefson, Jeff; Arum, Ed

2012-01-01

Working effectively with stakeholders is a common challenge for school business officials (SBOs) and noninstructional school leaders. SBOs are often frustrated by unrealistic expectations and a lack of appreciation for their efforts. What's more, they are often blamed for things over which they have no control. One might blame lack of…

Cultural Representations in Foreign Language Teaching: A Critique of Four BBC Courses.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Mar-Molinero, Clare

1992-01-01

Examines four well-known BBC language courses, "Deutsch Direkt!""A Vous la France!""Viva Espana," and "Buongiorno Italia!" It is suggested that these courses focus on tourism, stereotyping both learners and the target culture and that the presentation of the cultural materials is unrealistic. (VWL)

MMPI Profiles of Adolescents Charged with Homicide.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Cornell, Dewey G.; And Others

Violent individuals are a heterogeneous group, making it unrealistic to think that a single psychological profile can classify them. Adolescents (N=72) at the Michigan Center for Forensic Psychiatry who had committed homicides were studied in an effort to distinguish clinically meaningful subtypes based on the motives and circumstance of their…

Group Treatment of Eating Disorders in a University Counseling Center.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Snodgrass, Gregory; And Others

Sociocultural pressures to pursue an unrealistic ideal of thinness have contributed to an increasing number of students seeking help at a university counseling center for the eating disorders of anorexia nervosa and bulimia. To help these students, a group treatment technique was developed using a cognitive-behavioral approach. Treatment…

Using Webcams to Show Change and Movement in the Physical Environment

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Sawyer, Carol F.; Butler, David R.; Curtis, Mary

2010-01-01

Environmental change is ideally taught through field observations; however, leaving the classroom is often unrealistic due to financial and logistical constraints. The Internet offers several feasible alternatives using webcams that instructors can use to illustrate a variety of geographic examples and exercises for students. This article explores…

The "You Owe Me!" Mentality: A Student Entitlement Perception Paradox

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Schaefer, Thomas; Barta, Marguerite; Whitley, William; Stogsdill, Margie

2013-01-01

College and University faculty members routinely share stories and anecdotes about students who appear to have an unrealistic expectation of entitlement when it comes to following the requirements and dictates of classroom and collegiate rigor (Gill, 2009; Lippman, Bulanda, Wagenaar, 2009; Roosevelt, 2009). Faculty stories and discussions include…

The Consumption Aspirations of Adolescents: Determinants and Implications.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Freedman, Deborah S.; Thornton, Arland

1990-01-01

Examines the determinants of the consumption aspirations of adolescents, with a major emphasis on the influence of the family. Finds that the ability of adolescents to purchase substantial consumer durable goods with their own earnings while being supported in the parental household may lead to unrealistic future consumption goals. (FMW)

Developing Sustainable Leadership

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Davies, Brent

2007-01-01

The emphasis on short-term accountability measures has often prioritised the use of short-term management strategies to meet test and Ofsted measures. Moving away from short-termism to more fundamental consideration of sustainable leadership is the focus of this paper. While it would be naive or unrealistic to suggest that school leaders do not…

Adaptive Testing without IRT.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Yan, Duanli; Lewis, Charles; Stocking, Martha

It is unrealistic to suppose that standard item response theory (IRT) models will be appropriate for all new and currently considered computer-based tests. In addition to developing new models, researchers will need to give some attention to the possibility of constructing and analyzing new tests without the aid of strong models. Computerized…

Re-Thinking Lifelong Learning

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Hinchliffe, Geoff

2006-01-01

The current dominant concept of lifelong learning has arisen from the pressures of globalisation, economic change and the needs of the "knowledge economy". Its importance is not disputed in this paper. However, its proponents often advocate it in a form which places unrealistic demands on the individual without at the same time addressing their…

Can We Cross the Street in Time?

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Greenes, Carole E.; Cavanagh, Mary C.; Tsankova, Jenny K.; Glanfield, Florence A.

2013-01-01

In the authors' examination of various instructional programs, they observed that most provide all the necessary data to solve proportion problems, employ compatible numbers that are usually unrealistic, present numbers (data) in the order in which they are to be manipulated, discuss contexts that cannot be easily replicated, and present…

Investigation of "Skyscraper's" Feat

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Efthimiou, Costas

2018-01-01

"Skyscraper" is a Hollywood action film ("Skyscraper" official film site: www.skyscrapermovie.com) directed and written by Thurber scheduled to be released on 13 July 2018. We present an analysis of the feat shown in the recently released teaser poster and trailer of the film. Although the feat appears to be unrealistic at…

Water yields from forests: an agnostic view

Treesearch

Robert R. Ziemer

1987-01-01

Abstract - Although experimental watershed studies have consistently shown that water yield can be increased by removing trees and shrubs, programs to increase water yield on an operational scale have consistently failed. Failure has been related to overstated goals and benefits, unrealistic assumptions, political naivete, and the emergence of new interest groups....

Development and Validation of the Family Beliefs Inventory: A Measure of Unrealistic Beliefs among Parents and Adolescents.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Roehling, Patricia Vincent; Robin, Arthur L.

1986-01-01

Evaluated the criterion-related validity of the Family Beliefs Inventory, a new self-report measure of unreasonable beliefs regarding parent-adolescent relationships. Distressed fathers displayed more unreasonable beliefs concerning ruination, obedience, perfectionism, and malicious intent than nondistressed fathers. Distressed adolescents…

Engine non-containment: UK risk assessment methods

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Wallin, J. C.

1977-01-01

More realistic guideline data must be developed for use in aircraft design in order to comply with recent changes in British civil airworthiness requirements. Unrealistically pessimistic results were obtained when the methodology developed during the Concorde SST certification program was extended to assess catastrophic risks resulting from uncontained engine rotors.

Literature for Children: An Engagement with Life.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Allen, Arthur T.

1967-01-01

The two complementary questions--"What does literature do to young readers?" and "Can literature be taught?"--are not easily answered. Youth should not employ literature as an exclusive guide to life since they will encounter numerous unrealistic situations. Instead, literature should entice them to deal vicariously with vivid, new experiences and…

What Does NCATE Have to Say to Future History Teachers?

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Wineburg, Sam

2005-01-01

According to current NCATE standards, social studies teachers must be well versed in economics, history, sociology, political science, psychology, anthropology, science and technology, and the arts. In short, they must know everything. In this article, the author dismisses these standards as totally unrealistic and argues that prospective social…

Why Do New Teachers Leave? How Could They Stay?

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Simos, Elaine

2013-01-01

The author of this article posits that some teachers leave the profession because they entered it with unrealistic expectations, and that the reality of multiple preparations, unpaid orientation sessions, and large student loads is overburdening.for new teachers. Many new teachers leave their positions because of the dissonance between their…

Improve Math Teaching with Incremental Improvements

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Star, Jon R.

2016-01-01

Past educational reforms have failed because they didn't meet teachers where they were. They expected major changes in practices that may have been unrealistic for many teachers even under ideal professional learning conditions. Instead of promoting broad scale changes, improvement may be more likely if they are composed of small yet powerful…

Education and Primitive Accumulation in Sub-Saharan Africa.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Emoungu, Paul-Albert N.

1992-01-01

The 1988 World Bank report on education in sub-Saharan Africa overstates the regional "crisis" in educational quality and recommends unrealistic strategies, ignoring the fact that basic human needs such as education are unmet because political elites corruptly privatize much of the wealth generated by their nations' economies. (SV)

Organizational Multiculturalism: Towards a Model of Diversity Sensitivity in the Teaching of Organizational Communication.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Foeman, Anita

Too often African American students in communication courses are confronted with communication principles which to them seem inappropriate, unrealistic, and simply false. Current conceptualizations of organizational communication suggest that the organization consists of one culture (often depicted as predominantly white and predominantly male).…

Students' Perceptions toward Academic Competencies: The Case of German First-Year Students

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Mah, Dana-Kristin; Ifenthaler, Dirk

2018-01-01

Students often enter higher education academically unprepared and with unrealistic perceptions and expectations regarding academic competencies for their studies. However, preparedness and realistic perceptions are important factors for student retention. With regard to a proposed model of five academic competencies (time management, learning…

Cost-effectiveness of drug-eluting stents in patients at high or low risk of major cardiac events in the Basel Stent KostenEffektivitäts Trial (BASKET): an 18-month analysis.

PubMed

Brunner-La Rocca, Hans Peter; Kaiser, Christoph; Bernheim, Alain; Zellweger, Michael J; Jeger, Raban; Buser, Peter T; Osswald, Stefan; Pfisterer, Matthias

2007-11-03

Our aim was to determine whether drug-eluting stents are good value for money in long-term, everyday practice. We did an 18-month cost-effectiveness analysis of the Basel Stent KostenEffektivitäts Trial (BASKET), which randomised 826 patients 2:1 to drug-eluting stents (n=545) or to bare-metal stents (281). We used non-parametric bootstrap techniques to determine incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICERs) of drug-eluting versus bare-metal stents, to compare low-risk (> or =3.0 mm stents in native vessels; n=558, 68%) and high-risk patients (<3.0 mm stents/bypass graft stenting; n=268, 32%), and to do sensitivity analyses by altering costs and event rates in the whole study sample and in predefined subgroups. Quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs) were assessed by EQ-5D questionnaire (available in 703/826 patients). Overall costs were higher for patients with drug-eluting stents than in those with bare-metal stents (11,808 euros [SD 400] per patient with drug-eluting stents and 10,450 euros [592] per patient with bare-metal stents, mean difference 1358 euros [717], p<0.0001), due to higher stent costs. We calculated an ICER of 64,732 euros to prevent one major adverse cardiac event, and of 40,467 euros per QALY gained. Stent costs, number of events, and QALYs affected ICERs most, but unrealistic alterations would have been required to achieve acceptable cost-effectiveness. In low-risk patients, the probability of drug-eluting stents achieving an arbitrary ICER of 10,000 euros or less to prevent one major adverse cardiac event was 0.016; by contrast, it was 0.874 in high-risk patients. If used in all patients, drug-eluting stents are not good value for money, even if prices were substantially reduced. Drug-eluting stents are cost effective in patients needing small vessel or bypass graft stenting, but not in those who require large native vessel stenting.

Layers of protection analysis in the framework of possibility theory.

PubMed

Ouazraoui, N; Nait-Said, R; Bourareche, M; Sellami, I

2013-11-15

An important issue faced by risk analysts is how to deal with uncertainties associated with accident scenarios. In industry, one often uses single values derived from historical data or literature to estimate events probability or their frequency. However, both dynamic environments of systems and the need to consider rare component failures may make unrealistic this kind of data. In this paper, uncertainty encountered in Layers Of Protection Analysis (LOPA) is considered in the framework of possibility theory. Data provided by reliability databases and/or experts judgments are represented by fuzzy quantities (possibilities). The fuzzy outcome frequency is calculated by extended multiplication using α-cuts method. The fuzzy outcome is compared to a scenario risk tolerance criteria and the required reduction is obtained by resolving a possibilistic decision-making problem under necessity constraint. In order to validate the proposed model, a case study concerning the protection layers of an operational heater is carried out. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Potential acidification impacts on zooplankton in CCS leakage scenarios.

PubMed

Halsband, Claudia; Kurihara, Haruko

2013-08-30

Carbon capture and storage (CCS) technologies involve localized acidification of significant volumes of seawater, inhabited mainly by planktonic species. Knowledge on potential impacts of these techniques on the survival and physiology of zooplankton, and subsequent consequences for ecosystem health in targeted areas, is scarce. The recent literature has a focus on anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions into the atmosphere, leading to enhanced absorption of CO2 by the oceans and a lowered seawater pH, termed ocean acidification. These studies explore the effects of changes in seawater chemistry, as predicted by climate models for the end of this century, on marine biota. Early studies have used unrealistically severe CO2/pH values in this context, but are relevant for CCS leakage scenarios. Little studied meso- and bathypelagic species of the deep sea may be especially vulnerable, as well as vertically migrating zooplankton, which require significant residence times at great depths as part of their life cycle. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Treating Patients as Persons: A Capabilities Approach to Support Delivery of Person-Centered Care

PubMed Central

Entwistle, Vikki A.; Watt, Ian S.

2013-01-01

Health services internationally struggle to ensure health care is “person-centered” (or similar). In part, this is because there are many interpretations of “person-centered care” (and near synonyms), some of which seem unrealistic for some patients or situations and obscure the intrinsic value of patients’ experiences of health care delivery. The general concern behind calls for person-centered care is an ethical one: Patients should be “treated as persons.” We made novel use of insights from the capabilities approach to characterize person-centered care as care that recognizes and cultivates the capabilities associated with the concept of persons. This characterization unifies key features from previous characterisations and can render person-centered care applicable to diverse patients and situations. By tying person-centered care to intrinsically valuable capability outcomes, it incorporates a requirement for responsiveness to individuals and explains why person-centered care is required independently of any contribution it may make to health gain. PMID:23862598

On the Significance of Fuzzification of the N and M in Cancer Staging

PubMed Central

Yones, Sara A; Moussa, Ahmed S; Hassan, Hesham; Alieldin, Nelly H

2014-01-01

The tumor, node, metastasis (TNM) staging system has been regarded as one of the most widely used staging systems for solid cancer. The “T” is assigned a value according to the primary tumor size, whereas the “N” and “M” are dependent on the number of regional lymph nodes and the presence of distant metastasis, respectively. The current TNM model classifies stages into five crisp classes. This is unrealistic since the drastic modification in treatment that is based on a change in one class may be based on a slight shift around the class boundary. Moreover, the system considers any tumor that has distant metastasis as stage 4, disregarding the metastatic lesion concentration and size. We had handled the problem of T staging in previous studies using fuzzy logic. In this study, we focus on the fuzzification of N and M staging for more accurate and realistic modeling which may, in turn, lead to better treatment and medical decisions. PMID:25089089

A new simple /spl infin/OH neuron model as a biologically plausible principal component analyzer.

PubMed

Jankovic, M V

2003-01-01

A new approach to unsupervised learning in a single-layer neural network is discussed. An algorithm for unsupervised learning based upon the Hebbian learning rule is presented. A simple neuron model is analyzed. A dynamic neural model, which contains both feed-forward and feedback connections between the input and the output, has been adopted. The, proposed learning algorithm could be more correctly named self-supervised rather than unsupervised. The solution proposed here is a modified Hebbian rule, in which the modification of the synaptic strength is proportional not to pre- and postsynaptic activity, but instead to the presynaptic and averaged value of postsynaptic activity. It is shown that the model neuron tends to extract the principal component from a stationary input vector sequence. Usually accepted additional decaying terms for the stabilization of the original Hebbian rule are avoided. Implementation of the basic Hebbian scheme would not lead to unrealistic growth of the synaptic strengths, thanks to the adopted network structure.

A mass weighted chemical elastic network model elucidates closed form domain motions in proteins

PubMed Central

Kim, Min Hyeok; Seo, Sangjae; Jeong, Jay Il; Kim, Bum Joon; Liu, Wing Kam; Lim, Byeong Soo; Choi, Jae Boong; Kim, Moon Ki

2013-01-01

An elastic network model (ENM), usually Cα coarse-grained one, has been widely used to study protein dynamics as an alternative to classical molecular dynamics simulation. This simple approach dramatically saves the computational cost, but sometimes fails to describe a feasible conformational change due to unrealistically excessive spring connections. To overcome this limitation, we propose a mass-weighted chemical elastic network model (MWCENM) in which the total mass of each residue is assumed to be concentrated on the representative alpha carbon atom and various stiffness values are precisely assigned according to the types of chemical interactions. We test MWCENM on several well-known proteins of which both closed and open conformations are available as well as three α-helix rich proteins. Their normal mode analysis reveals that MWCENM not only generates more plausible conformational changes, especially for closed forms of proteins, but also preserves protein secondary structures thus distinguishing MWCENM from traditional ENMs. In addition, MWCENM also reduces computational burden by using a more sparse stiffness matrix. PMID:23456820

The ExtraSolar Planetary Imaging Coronagraph

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Clampin, M.; Lyon, R.

2010-10-01

The Extrasolar Planetary Imaging Coronagraph (EPIC) is a 1.65-m telescope employing a visible nulling coronagraph (VNC) to deliver high-contrast images of extrasolar system architectures. EPIC will survey the architectures of exosolar systems, and investigate the physical nature of planets in these solar systems. EPIC will employ a Visible Nulling Coronagraph (VNC), featuring an inner working angle of ≤2λ/D, and offers the ideal balance between performance and feasibility of implementation, while not sacrificing science return. The VNC does not demand unrealistic thermal stability from its telescope optics, achieving its primary mirror surface figure requires no new technology, and pointing stability is within state of the art. The EPIC mission will be launched into a drift-away orbit with a five-year mission lifetime.

The light-footed clapper rail: An update

USGS Publications Warehouse

Wilburn, Cynthia A.; Jorgensen, Paul D.; Massey, Barbara W.; Basham, Venita A.

1979-01-01

A preliminary report on the Light-footed Clapper Rail, Rallus longirostris levipes, estimated a population of 500-750 birds in California (Wilbur, Am. Birds 28:868-870, 1974). Since then, additional work has been accomplished, most notably: (1) an intensive study of Carpinteria Marsh, Santa Barbara County, 1976-1977 (Basham); (2) a series of winter high tide counts at Anaheim Bay, Orange County, 1975-1977 (Massey, C. Collins, J. Lindell, M. Silbernagle); and (3) a detailed investigation of the rail population of Tijuana Slough, San Diego County, 1973-1974 (Jorgensen). These, plus short-term studies by the authors and K. Bender, D. Pinkler, P. Johns, and S. Lockhart, have shown that the original estimate was unrealistic. A more probable winter total is 300 rails, distributed as described below.

Modeling Epidemics Spreading on Social Contact Networks.

PubMed

Zhang, Zhaoyang; Wang, Honggang; Wang, Chonggang; Fang, Hua

2015-09-01

Social contact networks and the way people interact with each other are the key factors that impact on epidemics spreading. However, it is challenging to model the behavior of epidemics based on social contact networks due to their high dynamics. Traditional models such as susceptible-infected-recovered (SIR) model ignore the crowding or protection effect and thus has some unrealistic assumption. In this paper, we consider the crowding or protection effect and develop a novel model called improved SIR model. Then, we use both deterministic and stochastic models to characterize the dynamics of epidemics on social contact networks. The results from both simulations and real data set conclude that the epidemics are more likely to outbreak on social contact networks with higher average degree. We also present some potential immunization strategies, such as random set immunization, dominating set immunization, and high degree set immunization to further prove the conclusion.

Modeling Epidemics Spreading on Social Contact Networks

PubMed Central

ZHANG, ZHAOYANG; WANG, HONGGANG; WANG, CHONGGANG; FANG, HUA

2016-01-01

Social contact networks and the way people interact with each other are the key factors that impact on epidemics spreading. However, it is challenging to model the behavior of epidemics based on social contact networks due to their high dynamics. Traditional models such as susceptible-infected-recovered (SIR) model ignore the crowding or protection effect and thus has some unrealistic assumption. In this paper, we consider the crowding or protection effect and develop a novel model called improved SIR model. Then, we use both deterministic and stochastic models to characterize the dynamics of epidemics on social contact networks. The results from both simulations and real data set conclude that the epidemics are more likely to outbreak on social contact networks with higher average degree. We also present some potential immunization strategies, such as random set immunization, dominating set immunization, and high degree set immunization to further prove the conclusion. PMID:27722037

[Quality and objectifiability of training and advanced training in urology].

PubMed

Müller, S C; Strunk, T; Alken, P

2012-08-01

The attraction to study medicine has not changed, however we are facing a lack of trainees especially in surgical subspecialties like urology. Possible explanations are a 70% proportion of female students and different views on the work-life balance in the future. A high burden of theory and unrealistic multiple choice examinations support those who can learn but there are no objective and reproducible criteria to recognize the competence of a good physician early in the career. This problem continues during residency, especially in surgical subspecialities. The different medical boards in Germany responsible for the training programs have no concepts. Many attempts in other countries to objectively measure surgical skills have so far been ignored. If we do not want to lose our traditionally high competence in medicine we should join those who attempt to improve teaching and to use methods for selecting suitable candidates for surgery as soon and as objectively as possible.

MOVING PLANT TOXICOLOGY FROM THE GREENHOUSE TO THE FIELD: A METHOD THAT INCORPORATES THE POSITIVE ATTRIBUTES OF EACH

EPA Science Inventory

Open top chambers (OTC) have been used to study effects of air pollutants on plants for over 25 years. Many of those studies have used potted plants, producing environmental and ecological rooting conditions that are unrealistic. Others have placed OTC over existing vegetation, ...

Entitlement Attitudes Predict Students' Poor Performance in Challenging Academic Conditions

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Anderson, Donna; Halberstadt, Jamin; Aitken, Robert

2013-01-01

Excessive entitlement--an exaggerated or unrealistic belief about what one deserves--has been associated with a variety of maladaptive behaviors, including a decline in motivation and effort. In the context of tertiary education, we reasoned that if students expend less effort to obtain positive outcomes to which they feel entitled, this should…

Taking a Hard Look at Formal Mentoring Programs: A Consideration of the Potential Challenges Facing Women.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Blake-Beard, Stacy D.

2001-01-01

Comparison of women in formal and informal mentoring relationships showed that formal mentoring often led to unrealistic expectations; unbalanced focus on proteges; difficulty managing relationships among supervisors, proteges, and mentors; and damage from gossip. Informal mentoring may provide psychosocial and career support without these…

What's the Right Answer? Team Problem-Solving in Environments of Uncertainty

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Jameson, Daphne A.

2009-01-01

Whether in the workplace or the classroom, many teams approach problem-solving as a search for certainty--even though certainty rarely exists in business. This search for the one right answer to a problem creates unrealistic expectations and often undermines teams' effectiveness. To help teams manage their problem-solving process and communication…

Consequences of KPIs and Performance Management in Higher Education

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Kairuz, Therése; Andriés, Lynn; Nickloes, Tracy; Truter, Ilse

2016-01-01

Purpose: The core business of universities is learning. Cognitive thinking is critical for learning and the development of new knowledge which are essential in higher education. Creative, reflective and critical thinking are negatively affected by unrealistic demands and stress. The purpose of this paper is to argue that key performance indicators…

What's Really Blocking School Desegregation? Equal Opportunity Review, July 1973.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Sobel, Morton J.

There is little question that the primary element regarding school desegregation is the latent and overt racism pervading American society. Perhaps it is unrealistic to suggest that the school, the transmission belt of American mores from one generation to the next, is likely to intervene in the already existing pattern. Moreover, statements and…

The Impact of Incongruous Lake Temperatures on Regional Climate Extremes Downscaled from the CMIP5 Archive Using the WRF Model

EPA Science Inventory

The impact of incongruous lake temperatures is demonstrated using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Model to downscale global climate fields. Unrealistic lake temperatures prescribed by the default WRF configuration cause obvious biases near the lakes and also affect pre...

Management of U.S. Coast Guard Information Security Program Using Management by Objectives.

DTIC Science & Technology

1979-09-01

conducted. These men described their jobs and the attendant problems with obvious complete frankness and in the most lucid way. Thirdly, the security...scenario is not an unrealistic dream but a statement of the conditions that would exist if the organization arrived at some future state successfully

The Heart of the Senior Year

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Coe, Betsy

2007-01-01

Recent literature debates the effectiveness of the senior year, stating that it is an unproductive and unrealistic time for many students--either because they are, by that point in their school careers, disengaged and waiting to graduate, or because they are so stressed from taking Advanced Placement (AP) exams and writing college essays that they…

The Design and Transformation of Biofundamentals: A Nonsurvey Introductory Evolutionary and Molecular Biology Course

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Klymkowsky, Michael W.; Rentsch, Jeremy D.; Begovic, Emina; Cooper, Melanie M.

2016-01-01

Many introductory biology courses amount to superficial surveys of disconnected topics. Often, foundational observations and the concepts derived from them and students' ability to use these ideas appropriately are overlooked, leading to unrealistic expectations and unrecognized learning obstacles. The result can be a focus on memorization at the…

Urban Education in Distress: South Africa and the United States--Mutual Dilemmas for Two Democratic Societies.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Uchitelle, Susan

2000-01-01

South Africa and the United States face similar problems: teachers' inadequacies in educating an increasingly diverse population; a culture of poverty undermining public support; urban decay and declining tax bases; insufficient resources; totally inadequate school facilities; and unrealistic expectations, considering allotted resources, faculty,…

Too Many Institutions Still Taking Band-Aid Approach to Minority Student Retention, Experts Say.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Phillip, Mary-Christine

1993-01-01

Retention of minority college students is elusive because many institutions have not made a full commitment to it, as is apparent in faculty, curriculum, and corporate culture. Unrealistic expectations, racism, funding, college environment, faculty interaction with students, and parental role must be addressed before a solution is found. (MSE)

Throwing Caution to the Wind: Rationales for Risky Behavior.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

de La Rue, Denise; Ruback, R. Barry

There appears to be a tendency for people who have not been victimized by negative life events to perceive themselves as less vulnerable to victimization than others. Research has revealed this unrealistic optimism in risk perception. A study on rationales for risky behaviors was conducted to identify reasons other than this illusion of…

The Best Things May Be Free

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Riddile, Mel

2010-01-01

Doing more with less is a familiar theme across the country. For many schools and districts, counting on the adoption of costly, expensive programs is unrealistic. Schools are expected to continue to raise student achievement regardless of the state of the economy. The bad news is that schools must improve with the same resources and the same…

Consistent loss of genetic diversity in isolated cutthroat trout populations independent of habitat size and quality

Treesearch

Kellie J. Carim; Lisa A. Eby; Craig A. Barfoot; Matthew C. Boyer

2016-01-01

Fragmentation and isolation of wildlife populations has reduced genetic diversity worldwide, leaving many populations vulnerable to inbreeding depression and local extinction. Nonetheless, isolation is protecting many native aquatic species from interactions with invasive species, often making reconnection an unrealistic conservation strategy. Isolation management is...

IELTS: Global Implications of Curriculum and Materials Design.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Wallace, Craig

1997-01-01

Questions the removal of a link between reading and writing tasks in the International English Language Testing System (IELTS) examinations on two grounds: that this removal is prejudicial to those students whose native cultures may not provide the appropriate schemata to effectively write; and that it is unrealistic in terms of the measurement of…

Refusing the Stereotype: Decoding Negative Gender Imagery through a School-Based Digital Media Literacy Program

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Berman, Naomi; White, Alexandra

2013-01-01

The media plays a significant role in shaping cultural norms and attitudes, concomitantly reinforcing "body" and "beauty" ideals and gender stereotypes. Unrealistic, photoshopped and stereotyped images used by the media, advertising and fashion industries influence young people's body image and impact on their feelings of body…

More Than Just Style and Delivery: Recasting Public Speaking Courses for African American Students.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Nance, Teresa A.

Recognizing that too often, African American students in communication courses are confronted with communication principles which to them seem inappropriate, unrealistic, and simply false, this paper analyzes the conceptual foundation of the public speaking course and suggests how it might be made more relevant for African American students. The…

Brain-Based Education in Action

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Jensen, Eric

2012-01-01

An essential understanding about brain-based education is that most neuroscientists don't teach and most teachers don't do research. It's unrealistic to expect neuroscientists to reveal which classroom strategies will work best. That's not appropriate for neuroscientists, and most don't do that. Many critics could cite this as a weakness, but it's…

Moral Self-Cultivation East and West: A Critique

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Slote, Michael

2016-01-01

Moral Self-Cultivation plays an important, even a central role, in the Confucian philosophical tradition, but philosophers in the West, most notably Aristotle and Kant, also hold that moral self-cultivation or self-shaping is possible and morally imperative. This paper argues that these traditions are psychologically unrealistic in what they say…

Avoiding Practice Shock: Using Teacher Movies to Realign Pre-Service Teachers' Expectations of Teaching

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Delamarter, Jeremy

2015-01-01

Pre-service teachers often have unrealistic expectations of teaching. They often create an inspiration/content dichotomy in which they expect relational activities to trump content delivery. Unchecked, these misaligned expectations can lead to practice shock, the disorienting and sometimes traumatic identity crisis that often occurs during the…

Working with Unrealistic or Unshared Hope in the Counselling Session

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Larsen, Denise Joy; Stege, Rachel; Edey, Wendy; Ewasiw, Joan

2014-01-01

Hope has long been identified as an important therapeutic factor in counselling. Further, research evidence for the importance of hope to counselling practice and outcome is abundant. However, the field is only beginning to explicitly consider how hope can be effectively and intentionally practised. One of the most challenging dilemmas encountered…

Increasing Parents' Child Development Knowledge and Use of Effective Discipline.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Handforth, K. Clare

Interviews with professionals, a literature search, and a parent survey indicated that parents of toddlers had a need for knowledge about child development. This lack of knowledge was believed to be one factor in the reported use of non-effective discipline techniques, with the linking factor identified as unrealistic expectations. For this…

More Optimism About Future Events with Relative Left Hemisphere Activation.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Drake, Roger A.

Unrealistic personal optimism is the perception that undesirable events are less likely and desirable events are more likely to happen to oneself than they are to happen to other similar people. Three experiments were performed to study the relationships among personal optimism, perceived control, and selective activation of the cerebral…

Bayesian Analysis of Multilevel Probit Models for Data with Friendship Dependencies

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Koskinen, Johan; Stenberg, Sten-Ake

2012-01-01

When studying educational aspirations of adolescents, it is unrealistic to assume that the aspirations of pupils are independent of those of their friends. Considerable attention has also been given to the study of peer influence in the educational and behavioral literature. Typically, in empirical studies, the friendship networks have either been…

Causal Models with Unmeasured Variables: An Introduction to LISREL.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Wolfle, Lee M.

Whenever one uses ordinary least squares regression, one is making an implicit assumption that all of the independent variables have been measured without error. Such an assumption is obviously unrealistic for most social data. One approach for estimating such regression models is to measure implied coefficients between latent variables for which…

Reconciling (Seemingly) Discrepant Findings: Implications for Practice and Future Research

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Bowman, Nicholas A.; Herzog, Serge

2011-01-01

Decades of research in survey methodology and psychology have yielded important insights about how to create effective and valid survey instruments. As Porter (in press) has argued convincingly, college student surveys often fall well short of these standards by placing unrealistic demands on students' memory and by assuming that students readily…

Making a Great First Impression

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Evenson, Renee

2007-01-01

Managers and business owners often base hiring decisions on first impressions. That is why it is so important to teach students to make a great first impression--before they go on that first job interview. Managers do not have unrealistic expectations, they just want to hire people who they believe can develop into valuable employees. A nice…

How Prevalent Is Wishful Thinking? Misattribution of Arousal Causes Optimism and Pessimism in Subjective Probabilities

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Vosgerau, Joachim

2010-01-01

People appear to be unrealistically optimistic about their future prospects, as reflected by theory and research in the fields of psychology, organizational behavior, behavioral economics, and behavioral finance. Many real-world examples (e.g., consumer behavior during economic recessions), however, suggest that people are not always overly…

How the Myth of the Dumb Jock Becomes Fact: A Developmental View for Counselors.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Nelson, Eileen S.

1983-01-01

Uses Erikson's five stages of psychosocial development to examine the socialization of athletes. Because athletic ability is so heavily rewarded by adults and peers, athletes may prematurely commit themselves to unrealistic objectives and aspirations. Concerned counselors can help athletes define realistic educational and career goals. (JAC)

The New WWW: Whatever, Whenever, Wherever

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

March, Tom

2006-01-01

We are entering an age of instant media gratification, in which a "multimedia aura" will "accompany us wherever we go," writes Tom March. The New WWW, says March, offers us whatever we want, whenever and wherever we want it. The effect on our children may be unrealistic expectations, premature disillusionment, and unhappiness. To counterbalance…

Another Crisis Can We Count on the Reserves?

DTIC Science & Technology

1994-05-16

the " marshmallow " of volunteerism is something that is too soft of a concept to be counted upon. It only makes sense to develop a more well-defined...unrealistic. Involuntary activation has proven to be a hollow concept in practice, and planners are reluctant to count on the " marshmallow " of

Debunking a Video on Youtube as an Authentic Research Experience

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Davidowsky, Philip; Rogers, Michael

2015-01-01

Students are exposed to a variety of unrealistic physical experiences seen in movies, video games, and short online videos. A popular classroom activity has students examine footage to identify what aspects of physics are correctly and incorrectly represented. Some of the physical phenomena pictured might be tricks or illusions made easier to…

Elder Abuse: What's a Clinician To Do?

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Reis, Bruce E.

Incidence rates are critically examined in light of varying definitions of what constitutes elder abuse. It is suggested that the clinician's position of mandatory reporting is an unrealistic response in many cases of elder abuse due to the lack of adequate support services for either the abuser or the elder. Outcome studies are used to support…

A Missing Link: People, Practice and Some Precarious Research!

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Higdon, Carolyn Wiles; Higdon, Lawrence W.

2004-01-01

The field of augmentative and alternative communication's (AAC) missing link is the discrepancy between what the research community identifies as needs and what the clinical community, including the AAC user, believes to be the AAC user's needs. An unrealistic picture of the AAC user occurs, developing a top-down effect of limited outcomes,…

Managing Relative Decline: An Analysis of Foreign Policy Alternatives for the United States

DTIC Science & Technology

2015-02-17

ineffective and exorbitantly expensive.39 Americans are more likely to be killed by a plethora of domestic threats (police, car accidents, and poverty ...decades with no sign of correction. It is unrealistic to expect that foreign policy will ever be divorced from domestic politics; thus, if not

Unrealistic Optimism in the Pursuit of Academic Success

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Lewine, Rich; Sommers, Alison A.

2016-01-01

Although the ability to evaluate one's own knowledge and performance is critical to learning, the correlation between students' self-evaluation and actual performance measures is modest at best. In this study we examine the effect of offering extra credit for students' accurate prediction (self-accuracy) of their performance on four exams in two…

Doing Harm in the Name of Protection: Menstruation as a Topic for Sex Education.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Diorio, Joseph A.; Munro, Jennifer A.

2000-01-01

Pubertal changes in girls and boys are treated differently in New Zealand schools. Girls learn about menstruation in a scientific, bleak manner, getting an unrealistic picture of growing up. Boys receive positive information about exciting, powerful bodily changes. By protecting girls from problems associated with menstruation, schools risk…

The link between judgments of comparative risk and own risk: further evidence.

PubMed

Gold, Ron S

2007-03-01

Individuals typically believe that they are less likely than the average person to experience negative events, a phenomenon termed "unrealistic optimism". The direct method of assessing unrealistic optimism employs a question of the form, "Compared with the average person, what is the chance that X will occur to you?". However, it has been proposed that responses to such a question (direct-estimates) are based essentially just on estimates that X will occur to the self (self-estimates). If this is so, any factors that affect one of these estimates should also affect the other. This prediction was tested in two experiments. In each, direct- and self-estimates for an unfamiliar health threat - homocysteine-related heart problems - were recorded. It was found that both types of estimate were affected in the same way by varying the stated probability of having unsafe levels of homocysteine (Study 1, N=149) and varying the stated probability that unsafe levels of homocysteine will lead to heart problems (Study 2, N=111). The results are consistent with the proposal that direct-estimates are constructed just from self-estimates.

Age differences in memory for meaningful and arbitrary associations: A memory retrieval account.

PubMed

Amer, Tarek; Giovanello, Kelly S; Grady, Cheryl L; Hasher, Lynn

2018-02-01

Older adults typically show poor associative memory performance relative to younger adults. This age-related effect, however, is mediated by the meaningfulness of the materials used, such that age differences are minimized with the use of information that is consistent with prior knowledge. While this effect has been interpreted as facilitative learning through schematic support, the role of memory retrieval on this effect has yet to be explored. Using an associative memory paradigm that varied the extent of controlled retrieval for previously studied meaningful or arbitrary associations, older and younger adults in the present study retrieved realistic and unrealistic grocery item prices in a speeded, or in a slow, more control-based retrieval condition. There were no age differences in memory for realistic (meaningful) prices in either condition; however, younger adults showed better memory than older adults for unrealistic prices in the controlled retrieval condition only. These results suggest that age differences in memory for arbitrary associations can, at least partly, be accounted for by age reductions in strategic, controlled retrieval. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2018 APA, all rights reserved).

Global Assessment of Land Surface Temperature From Geostationary Satellites and Model Estimates

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Reichle, Rolf H.; Liu, Q.; Minnis, P.; daSilva, A. M., Jr.; Palikonda, R.; Yost, C. R.

2012-01-01

Land surface (or 'skin') temperature (LST) lies at the heart of the surface energy balance and is a key variable in weather and climate models. In this research we compare two global and independent data sets: (i) LST retrievals from five geostationary satellites generated at the NASA Langley Research Center (LaRC) and (ii) LST estimates from the quasi-operational NASA GEOS-5 global modeling and assimilation system. The objective is to thoroughly understand both data sets and their systematic differences in preparation for the assimilation of the LaRC LST retrievals into GEOS-5. As expected, mean differences (MD) and root-mean-square differences (RMSD) between modeled and retrieved LST vary tremendously by region and time of day. Typical (absolute) MD values range from 1-3 K in Northern Hemisphere mid-latitude regions to near 10 K in regions where modeled clouds are unrealistic, for example in north-eastern Argentina, Uruguay, Paraguay, and southern Brazil. Typically, model estimates of LST are higher than satellite retrievals during the night and lower during the day. RMSD values range from 1-3 K during the night to 2-5 K during the day, but are larger over the 50-120 W longitude band where the LST retrievals are derived from the FY2E platform

A Low-Cost and Energy-Efficient Multiprocessor System-on-Chip for UWB MAC Layer

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Xiao, Hao; Isshiki, Tsuyoshi; Khan, Arif Ullah; Li, Dongju; Kunieda, Hiroaki; Nakase, Yuko; Kimura, Sadahiro

Ultra-wideband (UWB) technology has attracted much attention recently due to its high data rate and low emission power. Its media access control (MAC) protocol, WiMedia MAC, promises a lot of facilities for high-speed and high-quality wireless communication. However, these benefits in turn involve a large amount of computational load, which challenges the traditional uniprocessor architecture based implementation method to provide the required performance. However, the constrained cost and power budget, on the other hand, makes using commercial multiprocessor solutions unrealistic. In this paper, a low-cost and energy-efficient multiprocessor system-on-chip (MPSoC), which tackles at once the aspects of system design, software migration and hardware architecture, is presented for the implementation of UWB MAC layer. Experimental results show that the proposed MPSoC, based on four simple RISC processors and shared-memory infrastructure, achieves up to 45% performance improvement and 65% power saving, but takes 15% less area than the uniprocessor implementation.

An investigation of CMIP5 model biases in simulating the impacts of central Pacific El Niño on the East Asian summer monsoon

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Feng, Juan; Chen, Wen; Gong, Hainan; Ying, Jun; Jiang, Wenping

2018-06-01

The delayed impacts of the central Pacific (CP) El Niño on the East Asian summer monsoon (EASM) are evaluated by comparing historical runs from Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 models against reanalysis data. In observations, an anomalous western North Pacific anticyclone (WNPAC), linking CP El Niño to the EASM, forms due to the transition of sea surface temperature (SST) warming into SST cooling over the CP, which generates a WNPAC through a Gill-Matsuno response. In comparison with the observational result, only one-third of the models (i.e., the type-I models) capture a weaker and smaller WNPAC, whereas the other two-thirds (i.e., the type-II models) fail to reproduce a WNPAC. The simulation biases in both of type-I models and type-II models mainly arise from an unrealistic, long-lasting CP El Niño warming, which causes a north Indian Ocean SST warming bias in models through air-sea interaction process. This north Indian Ocean SST warming generates the WNPAC through capacitor effects, which is different from the WNPAC formation mechanism in observations. This discrepancy leads to simulation biases in type-I models. In type-II models, the unrealistic CP El Niño warming persists into summer, which produces an anomalous cyclone over the central-western Pacific. The opposite effect of the CP and north Indian Ocean SST warming on the WNP atmospheric circulation leads to disappearance of the WNPAC. Hence, large simulation biases are produced in type-II models. Further analysis demonstrates the slow decay of CP El Niño is caused by the unrealistically simulated climatological SST, which creates strong warm meridional oceanic advection and results in a sustained CP El Niño warming.

Simulating settlement during waste placement at a landfill with waste lifts placed under frozen conditions.

PubMed

Van Geel, Paul J; Murray, Kathleen E

2015-12-01

Twelve instrument bundles were placed within two waste profiles as waste was placed in an operating landfill in Ste. Sophie, Quebec, Canada. The settlement data were simulated using a three-component model to account for primary or instantaneous compression, secondary compression or mechanical creep and biodegradation induced settlement. The regressed model parameters from the first waste layer were able to predict the settlement of the remaining four waste layers with good agreement. The model parameters were compared to values published in the literature. A MSW landfill scenario referenced in the literature was used to illustrate how the parameter values from the different studies predicted settlement. The parameters determined in this study and other studies with total waste heights between 15 and 60 m provided similar estimates of total settlement in the long term while the settlement rates and relative magnitudes of the three components varied. The parameters determined based on studies with total waste heights less than 15m resulted in larger secondary compression indices and lower biodegradation induced settlements. When these were applied to a MSW landfill scenario with a total waste height of 30 m, the settlement was overestimated and provided unrealistic values. This study concludes that more field studies are needed to measure waste settlement during the filling stage of landfill operations and more field data are needed to assess different settlement models and their respective parameters. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

A Method for Obtaining High Frequency, Global, IR-Based Convective Cloud Tops for Studies of the TTL

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Pfister, Leonhard; Ueyama, Rei; Jensen, Eric; Schoeberl, Mark

2017-01-01

Models of varying complexity that simulate water vapor and clouds in the Tropical Tropopause Layer (TTL) show that including convection directly is essential to properly simulating the water vapor and cloud distribution. In boreal winter, for example, simulations without convection yield a water vapor distribution that is too uniform with longitude, as well as minimal cloud distributions. Two things are important for convective simulations. First, it is important to get the convective cloud top potential temperature correctly, since unrealistically high values (reaching above the cold point tropopause too frequently) will cause excessive hydration of the stratosphere. Second, one must capture the time variation as well, since hydration by convection depends on the local relative humidity (temperature), which has substantial variation on synoptic time scales in the TTL. This paper describes a method for obtaining high frequency (3-hourly) global convective cloud top distributions which can be used in trajectory models. The method uses rainfall thresholds, standard IR brightness temperatures, meteorological temperature analyses, and physically realistic and documented corrections IR brightness temperature corrections to derive cloud top altitudes and potential temperatures. The cloud top altitudes compare well with combined CLOUDSAT and CALIPSO data, both in time-averaged overall vertical and horizontal distributions and in individual cases (correlations of .65-.7). An important finding is that there is significant uncertainty (nearly .5 km) in evaluating the statistical distribution of convective cloud tops even using lidar. Deep convection whose tops are in regions of high relative humidity (such as much of the TTL), will cause clouds to form above the actual convection. It is often difficult to distinguish these clouds from the actual convective cloud due to the uncertainties of evaluating ice water content from lidar measurements. Comparison with models show that calculated cloud top altitudes are generally higher than those calculated by global analyses (e.g., MERRA). Interannual variability in the distribution of convective cloud top altitudes is also investigated.

Static liquid permeation cell method for determining the migration parameters of low molecular weight organic compounds in polyethylene terephthalate.

PubMed

Song, Yoon S; Koontz, John L; Juskelis, Rima O; Zhao, Yang

2013-01-01

The migration of low molecular weight organic compounds through polyethylene terephthalate (PET) films was determined by using a custom permeation cell assembly. Fatty food simulant (Miglyol 812) was added to the receptor chamber, while the donor chamber was filled with 1% and 10% (v/v) migrant compounds spiked in simulant. The permeation cell was maintained at 40°C, 66°C, 100°C or 121°C for up to 25 days of polymer film exposure time. Migrants in Miglyol were directly quantified without a liquid-liquid extraction step by headspace-GC-MS analysis. Experimental diffusion coefficients (DP) of toluene, benzyl alcohol, ethyl butyrate and methyl salicylate through PET film were determined. Results from Limm's diffusion model showed that the predicted DP values for PET were all greater than the experimental values. DP values predicted by Piringer's diffusion model were also greater than those determined experimentally at 66°C, 100°C and 121°C. However, Piringer's model led to the underestimation of benzyl alcohol (Áp = 3.7) and methyl salicylate (Áp = 4.0) diffusion at 40°C with its revised "upper-bound" Áp value of 3.1 at temperatures below the glass transition temperature (Tg) of PET (<70°C). This implies that input parameters of Piringer's model may need to be revised to ensure a margin of safety for consumers. On the other hand, at temperatures greater than the Tg, both models appear too conservative and unrealistic. The highest estimated Áp value from Piringer's model was 2.6 for methyl salicylate, which was much lower than the "upper-bound" Áp value of 6.4 for PET. Therefore, it may be necessary further to refine "upper-bound" Áp values for PET such that Piringer's model does not significantly underestimate or overestimate the migration of organic compounds dependent upon the temperature condition of the food contact material.

Evaluation of the Impact of the Elementary and Secondary Education Act in the Cincinnati Public Schools.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Jacobs, James N., Ed.; Felix, Joseph L., Ed.

1966-01-01

This evaluation of Cincinnati's Title I projects for the disadvantaged public school students notes that definitive statements about measurable results are unrealistic because the projects were evaluated after only 5 months in operation. However the evaluation establishes baseline data. Information about the 13 Title I projects was gathered from…

The Market for Optical Disk Products: A Review of Published Forecasts, 1980-1990.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Saffady, William

1991-01-01

Examines the expectations and reality of optical disk market forecasts published between 1980 and 1990. A historical survey and review of these studies is presented, with general forecasts of all optical disk types included. It is concluded that unrealistic predictions may have contributed to a sluggish market for optical disks. (70 notes)…

Preschoolers Can Infer General Rules Governing Fantastical Events in Fiction

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Van de Vondervoort, Julia W.; Friedman, Ori

2014-01-01

Young children are frequently exposed to fantastic fiction. How do they make sense of the unrealistic and impossible events that occur in such fiction? Although children could view such events as isolated episodes, the present experiments suggest that children use such events to infer general fantasy rules. In 2 experiments, 2-to 4-year-olds were…

Uniting Technology and Pedagogy: The Evolution of an Online Teaching Certification Course

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Riedinger, Bonnie; Rosenberg, Paul

2006-01-01

Like all learners, new online instructors need hands-on experience, feedback, and ongoing support to become comfortable and proficient in the virtual classroom. It is unrealistic to expect even the most self-motivated, creatively pedagogical, and technically inclined instructor to fly solo after just a few hours of training. With the authors'…

A Realistic Data Warehouse Project: An Integration of Microsoft Access[R] and Microsoft Excel[R] Advanced Features and Skills

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

King, Michael A.

2009-01-01

Business intelligence derived from data warehousing and data mining has become one of the most strategic management tools today, providing organizations with long-term competitive advantages. Business school curriculums and popular database textbooks cover data warehousing, but the examples and problem sets typically are small and unrealistic. The…

Understanding Death Attitudes: The Integration of Movies, Positive Psychology, and Meaning Management

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Niemiec, Ryan M.; Schulenberg, Stefan E.

2011-01-01

The portrayal of death is one of the most common themes in movies and is often unrealistic, promoting misconceptions to the public. However, there are also many films that portray death acceptance in an instructive way. Such films depict the development of character strengths useful in embracing life and lessening death anxiety, namely zest,…

Education and the Free Will Problem: A Spinozist Contribution

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Dahlbeck, Johan

2017-01-01

In this Spinozist defence of the educational promotion of students' autonomy I argue for a deterministic position where freedom of will is deemed unrealistic in the metaphysical sense, but important in the sense that it is an undeniable psychological fact. The paper is structured in three parts. The first part investigates the concept of autonomy…

The BreakAway Company: A Complete Career Readiness Program.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Campbell, Don; And Others

The program was designed for 13- to 17-year-old at risk adolescents, those individuals who are experiencing difficulties at school, home and/or work. Their main characteristics are a lack of self-control and self-confidence, aggressive behavior, and either little or unrealistic thought about their future. The primary outcomes or aims of the…

Can Anyone Have It All? Gendered Views on Parenting and Academic Careers

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Sallee, Margaret; Ward, Kelly; Wolf-Wendel, Lisa

2016-01-01

This article is based on data from two qualitative studies that examined the experiences of 93 tenure-line faculty members who are also mothers and fathers. Using gender schemas and ideal worker norms as a guide, we examined the pressures that professors experience amid unrealistic expectations in their work and home lives. Women participants…

Managing the Socioeconomic Impacts of Energy Development. A Guide for the Small Community.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Armbrust, Roberta

Decisions concerning large-scale energy development projects near small communities or in predominantly rural areas are usually complex, requiring cooperation of all levels of government, as well as the general public and the private sector. It is unrealistic to expect the typical small community to develop capabilities to independently evaluate a…

The Impact of Socioeconomic Status on the Occurrence of Perfectionism in Primary School Gifted Students

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Krstic, Marina; Kevereski, Ljupco

2015-01-01

Various pressures and influences of family, society, media, and other agents of socialization on individuals and their own pressures, associated with setting unrealistic goals and requirements lead to a life filled with worry, frustration and guilt, (Ferbezer, 2002). Perfectionism emerges especially as a negative trend in the behaviour of a…

Lockean Puzzles

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Milligan, Tony

2007-01-01

In analytic moral philosophy it is standard to use unrealistic puzzles to set up moral dilemmas of a sort that I will call Lockean Puzzles. This paper will try to pinpoint just what is and what is not problematic about their use as a teaching tool or component part of philosophical arguments. I will try to flesh out the claim that what may be lost…

The mirror system in human and nonhuman primates.

PubMed

Orban, Guy A

2014-04-01

The description of the mirror neuron system provided by Cook et al. is incomplete for the macaque, and incorrect for humans. This is relevant to exaptation versus associative learning as the underlying mechanism generating mirror neurons, and to the sensorimotor learning as evidence for the authors' viewpoint. The proposed additional testing of the mirror system in rodents is unrealistic.

Unmet Expectations: Why Is There Such a Difference between Student Expectations and Classroom Performance?

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Stinson, Terrye A.; Zhao, Xiaofeng

2008-01-01

Past studies indicate that students are frequently poor judges of their likely academic performance in the classroom. The difficulty a student faces in accurately predicting performance on a classroom exam may be due to unrealistic optimism or may be due to an inability to self-evaluate academic performance, but the resulting disconnect between…

Thoughts on Teaching: Sometimes Apologies Are Not Enough

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Starnes, Bobby Ann

2004-01-01

This author believes the NCLB is a masterpiece of language manipulation. She feels that she can almost live with NCLB's flawed funding and unrealistic expectations. What she can't live with is its blatant failure and the hubris of those who willingly trade personal and political gain for our children's futures, regardless of skin color, accent,…

Cosmetic Surgery Makeover Programs and Intentions to Undergo Cosmetic Enhancements: A Consideration of Three Models of Media Effects

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Nabi, Robin L.

2009-01-01

The recent proliferation of reality-based television programs highlighting cosmetic surgery has raised concerns that such programming promotes unrealistic expectations of plastic surgery and increases the desire of viewers to undergo such procedures. In Study 1, a survey of 170 young adults indicated little relationship between cosmetic surgery…

"Accept Me, or Else...": Disputed Overestimation of Social Competence Predicts Increases in Proactive Aggression

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

de Castro, Bram Orobio; Brendgen, Mara; Van Boxtel, Herman; Vitaro, Frank; Schaepers, Linda

2007-01-01

It has been proposed that aggressive behavior may result from unrealistically positive self-evaluations that are disputed by others (Baumeister, Smart, & Boden, 1996). The present three studies tested this proposition concurrently and longitudinally for the domain of self-perceived social competence (SPSC) in 3-6th grade children on two…

The Cultural Cover-Up of College Athletics: How Organizational Culture Perpetuates an Unrealistic and Idealized Balancing Act

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Jayakumar, Uma M.; Comeaux, Eddie

2016-01-01

Using a combined grounded theory and case study methodology, Jayakumar and Comeaux examined the role of organizational culture in shaping the lives of college athletes, particularly related to negotiating dual roles as both student and athlete. Data collection involved 20 interviews with athletes and stakeholders in the affairs of intercollegiate…

Relationship between Vertical Transfer Students' Grit, First-Semester Academic Performance, and Social Integration

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Morlando Zurlo, Tara

2017-01-01

The pathway for community college students to transfer vertically into four-year institutions to complete a bachelor's degree was designed nearly a century ago, yet it remains plagued by the same structural problems, such as confusing admissions processes, lack of transparent advising resources, and unrealistic time-to-degree demands without…

Young Girls Discovering Their Voice with Literacy and Readers Theater

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Zambo, Debby

2011-01-01

The ideal female, as portrayed in the media, has a perfect body, owns many trendy and costly possessions, and is submissive and sexy. Young girls are easily influenced by the media's portrayal of teens and women, therefore, they may begin to form unrealistic ideas about beauty and begin to judge themselves and each other based on these…

Educational Journeys of Hispanic Women in Nursing

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Herrera, Antoinette Navalta

2012-01-01

Hispanics continue to be the fastest growing minority population in the Nation. According to U.S. Census Bureau (2011; 2008), the Hispanic or Latino population was 16.3 percent in 2010 and is projected to be over 30 percent in 2050. However, only 3.6% of the RN population is Hispanic indicating an unrealistic representation of today's…

Dispelling 10 Common Disaster Recovery Myths: Lessons Learned from Hurricane Katrina and Other Disasters

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Landry, Brett J. L.; Koger, M. Scott

2006-01-01

Disasters happen all the time; yet despite this, many organizations are caught unprepared or make unrealistic assumptions. These factors create environments that will fail during a disaster. Most information technology (IT) curricula do not cover disaster recovery (DR) plans and strategies in depth. The unfortunate result is that most new computer…

Improving Evaluation Use in Local School Settings. Optimizing Evaluation Use: Final Report.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

King, Jean A.; And Others

A project for studying ways to optimize utilization of evaluation products in public schools is reported. The results indicate that the negative picture of use prevalent in recent literature stems from the unrealistic expectation that local decision-makers will behave in a classically rational manner. Such a view ignores the political settings of…

The Destruction of the Young Black Male: The Impact of Popular Culture and Organized Sports.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Gaston, John C.

1986-01-01

Argues that the negative aspects of popular culture and organized sports in American society contribute to the economic, psychological, and social destruction of the Black male. The media nurtures unrealistic fantasies in young Black males, preventing them from acquiring the education and skills necessary to participate in the mainstream. (ETS)

Improving longleaf pine mortality predictions in the Southern Variant of the Forest Vegetation Simulator

Treesearch

R. Justin DeRose; John D. Shaw; Giorgio Vacchiano; James N. Long

2008-01-01

The Southern Variant of the Forest Vegetation Simulator (FVS-SN) is made up of individual submodels that predict tree growth, recruitment and mortality. Forest managers on Ft. Bragg, North Carolina, discovered biologically unrealistic longleaf pine (Pinus palustris) size-density predictions at large diameters when using FVS-SN to project red-cockaded...

The Continued Need for Effective Remedial Reading Programs.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Jansen, Mogens

Reading disability is described in this paper as a relative state that will appear different across societies and over the years. It is noted that researchers who claim that their objective is to find methods and materials to make remedial reading unnecessary are unrealistic. An overview of the Danish educational system and society during the last…

Solving Problems in Genetics, Part III: Change in the View of the Nature of Science

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Ibanez-Orcajo, M. Teresa; Martinez-Aznar, M. Mercedes

2007-01-01

Numerous investigations show that most school science teaching, in Spain and elsewhere, implicitly transmits an inductivist and very stereotyped view of science and conveys an unrealistic image of scientific work. We present some results of an investigation with fourth-level Spanish secondary education students (15 year olds) who were taught…

A Proposal Comparing a Clinician-Guided Patient Information Module to Standard Patient Information Evaluating Treatment Expectations of Dermal Fillers

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Warren, Hermine

2014-01-01

In 2011, nearly 13 million nonsurgical cosmetic procedures were performed, representing a 6% increase from the previous year. Patients often present with unrealistic treatment expectations based on beauty industry standards and misinformation. In addition, due to the lack of competency standardization in this area, providers frequently deliver…

Electronic waste recovery in Finland: Consumers' perceptions towards recycling and re-use of mobile phones.

PubMed

Ylä-Mella, Jenni; Keiski, Riitta L; Pongrácz, Eva

2015-11-01

This paper examines consumers' awareness and perceptions towards mobile phone recycling and re-use. The results are based on a survey conducted in the city of Oulu, Finland, and analysed in the theoretical framework based on the theories of planned behaviour (TPB) and value-belief-norm (VBN). The findings indicate that consumers' awareness of the importance and existence of waste recovery system is high; however, awareness has not translated to recycling behaviour. The survey reveals that 55% of respondents have two or more unused mobile phones at homes. The more phones stored at homes, the more often reasons 'I don't know where to return' and/or 'have not got to do it yet' were mentioned. This indicates that proximity and the convenience of current waste management system are inadequate in promoting the return of small waste electrical and electronic equipment (WEEE). To facilitate re-use, and the highest level of recovery, consumers will need to be committed to return end-of-use electronics to WEEE collection centres without delays. Further, the supply and demand of refurbished mobile phones do not meet at this moment in Finland due to consumer's storing habits versus expectations of recent features under guarantee and unrealistic low prizes. The study also points out that, in order to change current storing habits of consumers, there is an explicit need for more information and awareness on mobile phone collection in Finland, especially on regarding retailers' take-back. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Carbon Isotope Discrimination in C3 Land Plants is Independent of Atmospheric PCO2

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kohn, M. J.

2015-12-01

The δ13C of terrestrial C3 plant tissues and soil organic matter is important for understanding the carbon cycle, inferring past climatic and ecological conditions, and predicting responses of vegetation to future climate change. Plant δ13C depends on the δ13C of atmospheric CO2 and mean annual precipitation (MAP), but an unresolved decades-long debate centers on whether terrestrial C3 plant δ13C responds to pCO2. Here, the pCO2-dependence of C3 land plant δ13C was tested using isotopic records from low- and high-pCO2 times spanning historical through Eocene data. Historical data do not resolve a clear pCO2-effect (-1.2±1.0 to 0.59±0.34‰/100 ppmv), and organic carbon records of the Pleistocene-Holocene transition implicate changes in MAP and ecosystems, rather than pCO2, as the major driver of δ13C changes. Fossil collagen and tooth enamel data constrain pCO2-effects most tightly to -0.03±0.13 and -0.03±0.24‰/100 ppmv between 200 and 700 ppmv. Combining all constraints yields a preferred value of 0.0±0.2‰/100 ppmv (2 s.e.), i.e. there is effectively no pCO2 effect. Recent models of pCO2-dependence imply unrealistic MAP for Cenozoic records.

Development of a Global Fire Weather Database

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Field, R. D.; Spessa, A. C.; Aziz, N. A.; Camia, A.; Cantin, A.; Carr, R.; de Groot, W. J.; Dowdy, A. J.; Flannigan, M. D.; Manomaiphiboon, K.;

Antimicrobial drug use in Austrian pig farms: plausibility check of electronic on-farm records and estimation of consumption.

PubMed

Trauffler, M; Griesbacher, A; Fuchs, K; Köfer, J

2014-10-25

Electronic drug application records from farmers from 75 conventional pig farms were revised and checked for their plausibility. The registered drug amounts were verified by comparing the farmers' records with veterinarians' dispensary records. The antimicrobial consumption was evaluated from 2008 to 2011 and expressed in weight of active substance(s), number of used daily doses (nUDD), number of animal daily doses (nADD) and number of product-related daily doses (nPrDD). All results were referred to one year and animal bodyweight (kg biomass). The data plausibility proof revealed about 14 per cent of unrealistic drug amount entries in the farmers' records. The annual antimicrobial consumption was 33.9 mg/kg/year, 4.9 UDDkg/kg/year, 1.9 ADDkg/kg/year and 2.5 PrDDkg/kg/year (average). Most of the antimicrobials were applied orally (86 per cent) and at group-level. Main therapy indications were metaphylactic/prophylactic measures (farrow-to-finish and fattening farms) or digestive tract diseases (breeding farms). The proportion of the 'highest priority critically important antimicrobials' was low (12 per cent). After determination of a threshold value, farms with a high antimicrobial use could be detected. Statistical tests showed that the veterinarian had an influence on the dosage, the therapy indication and the active substance. Orally administered antimicrobials were mostly underdosed, parenterally administered antimicrobials rather correctly or overdosed. British Veterinary Association.

The Influence of the Photoionizing Radiation Spectrum on Metal-Line Ratios in Ly(alpha) Forest Clouds

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Giroux, Mark L.; Shull, J. Michael

1997-01-01

Recent measurements of Si IV/C IV ratios in the high-redshift Ly(alpha) forest (Songaila & Cowie, AJ, 112, 335 (1996a); Savaglio et at., A&A (in press) (1997)) have opened a new window on chemical enrichment and the first generations of stars. However, the derivation of accurate Si/C abundances requires reliable ionization corrections, which are strongly dependent on the spectral shape of the metagalactic ionizing background and on the 'local effects' of hot stars in nearby galaxies. Recent models have assumed power-law quasar ionizing backgrounds plus a decrement at 4 Ryd to account for He II attenuation in intervening clouds. However, we show that realistic ionizing backgrounds based on cosmological radiative transfer models produce more complex ionizing spectra between 1-5 Ryd that are critical to interpreting ions of Si and C. We also make a preliminary investigation of the effects of He II ionization front nonoverlap. Because the attenuation and reemission by intervening clouds enhance Si IV relative to C the observed high Si IV/C IV ratios do not require an unrealistic Si overproduction (Si/C greater than or equal to 3 (Si/C)(solar mass)). If the ionizing spectrum is dominated by 'local effects' from massive stars, even larger Si IV/C IV ratios are possible. However, unless stellar radiation dominates quasars by more than a factor of 10, we confirm the evidence for some Si overproduction by massive stars; values Si/C approx. 2(Si/C)(solar mass) fit the measurements better than solar abundances. Ultimately, an adequate interpretation of the ratios of C IV, Si IV, and C II may require hot, collisionally ionized gas in a multiphase medium.

Technical note: Improving the AWAT filter with interpolation schemes for advanced processing of high resolution data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Peters, Andre; Nehls, Thomas; Wessolek, Gerd

2016-06-01

Weighing lysimeters with appropriate data filtering yield the most precise and unbiased information for precipitation (P) and evapotranspiration (ET). A recently introduced filter scheme for such data is the AWAT (Adaptive Window and Adaptive Threshold) filter (Peters et al., 2014). The filter applies an adaptive threshold to separate significant from insignificant mass changes, guaranteeing that P and ET are not overestimated, and uses a step interpolation between the significant mass changes. In this contribution we show that the step interpolation scheme, which reflects the resolution of the measuring system, can lead to unrealistic prediction of P and ET, especially if they are required in high temporal resolution. We introduce linear and spline interpolation schemes to overcome these problems. To guarantee that medium to strong precipitation events abruptly following low or zero fluxes are not smoothed in an unfavourable way, a simple heuristic selection criterion is used, which attributes such precipitations to the step interpolation. The three interpolation schemes (step, linear and spline) are tested and compared using a data set from a grass-reference lysimeter with 1 min resolution, ranging from 1 January to 5 August 2014. The selected output resolutions for P and ET prediction are 1 day, 1 h and 10 min. As expected, the step scheme yielded reasonable flux rates only for a resolution of 1 day, whereas the other two schemes are well able to yield reasonable results for any resolution. The spline scheme returned slightly better results than the linear scheme concerning the differences between filtered values and raw data. Moreover, this scheme allows continuous differentiability of filtered data so that any output resolution for the fluxes is sound. Since computational burden is not problematic for any of the interpolation schemes, we suggest always using the spline scheme.

Applicability of meteor radiant determination methods depending on orbit type. II. Low-eccentric orbits

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Svoren, J.; Neslusan, L.; Porubcan, V.

1994-08-01

All known parent bodies of meteor showers belong to bodies moving in high-eccentricity orbits (e => 0.5). Recently, asteroids in low-eccentricity orbits (e < 0.5) approaching the Earth's orbit, were suggested as another population of possible parent bodies of meteor streams. This paper deals with the problem of calculation of meteor radiants connected with the bodies in low-eccentricity orbits from the point of view of optimal results depending on the method applied. The paper is a continuation of our previous analysis of high-eccentricity orbits (Svoren, J., Neslusan, L., Porubcan, V.: 1993, Contrib. Astron. Obs. Skalnate Pleso 23, 23). Some additional methods resulting from mathematical modelling are presented and discussed together with Porter's, Steel-Baggaley's and Hasegawa's methods. In order to be able to compare how suitable the application of the individual radiant determination methods is, it is necessary to determine the accuracy with which they approximate real meteor orbits. To verify the accuracy with which the orbit of a meteoroid with at least one node at 1 AU fits the original orbit of the parent body, the Southworth-Hawkins D-criterion (Southworth, R.B., Hawkins, G.S.: 1963, Smithson. Contr. Astrophys. 7, 261) was applied. D <= 0.1 indicates a very good fit of orbits, 0.1 < D <= 0.2 is considered for a good fit and D > 0.2 means that the fit is rather poor and the change of orbit unrealistic. The optimal method, i.e. the one which results in the smallest D values for the population of low-eccentricity orbits, is that of adjusting the orbit by varying both the eccentricity and perihelion distance. A comparison of theoretical radiants obtained by various methods was made for typical representatives from each group of the NEA (near-Earth asteroids) objects.

How to fragment peralkaline rhyolites: Observations on pumice using combined multi-scale 2D and 3D imaging

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hughes, Ery C.; Neave, David A.; Dobson, Katherine J.; Withers, Philip J.; Edmonds, Marie

2017-04-01

Peralkaline rhyolites are volatile-rich magmas that typically erupt in continental rift settings. The high alkali and halogen content of these magmas results in viscosities two to three orders of magnitude lower than in calc-alkaline rhyolites. Unless extensive microlite crystallisation occurs, the calculated strain rates required for fragmentation are unrealistically high, yet peralkaline pumices from explosive eruptions of varying scales are commonly microlite-free. Here we present a combined 2D scanning electron microscopy and 3D X-ray microtomography study of peralkaline rhyolite vesicle textures designed to investigate fragmentation processes. Microlite-free peralkaline pumice textures from Pantelleria, Italy, strongly resemble those from calc-alkaline rhyolites on both macro and micro scales. These textures imply that the pumices fragmented in a brittle fashion and that their peralkaline chemistry had little direct effect on textural evolution during bubble nucleation and growth. We suggest that the observed pumice textures evolved in response to high decompression rates and that peralkaline rhyolite magmas can fragment when strain localisation and high bubble overpressures develop during rapid ascent.

Anisotropic parton escape is the dominant source of azimuthal anisotropy in transport models

DOE PAGES

He, Liang; Edmonds, Terrence; Lin, Zi-Wei; ...

2015-12-22

We trace the development of azimuthal anisotropy (v n, n = 2, 3) via parton-parton collision history in two transport models. The parton v n is studied as a function of the number of collisions of each parton in Au+Au and d+Au collisions at √ s NN = 200 GeV. Findings show that the majority of v n comes from the anisotropic escape probability of partons, with no fundamental difference at low and high transverse momenta. The contribution to v n from hydrodynamic-type collective flow is found to be small. Only when the parton-parton cross-section is set unrealistically large doesmore » this contribution start to take over. Our findings challenge the current paradigm emerged from hydrodynamic comparisons to anisotropy data.« less

Anonymizing 1:M microdata with high utility

PubMed Central

Gong, Qiyuan; Luo, Junzhou; Yang, Ming; Ni, Weiwei; Li, Xiao-Bai

2016-01-01

Preserving privacy and utility during data publishing and data mining is essential for individuals, data providers and researchers. However, studies in this area typically assume that one individual has only one record in a dataset, which is unrealistic in many applications. Having multiple records for an individual leads to new privacy leakages. We call such a dataset a 1:M dataset. In this paper, we propose a novel privacy model called (k, l)-diversity that addresses disclosure risks in 1:M data publishing. Based on this model, we develop an efficient algorithm named 1:M-Generalization to preserve privacy and data utility, and compare it with alternative approaches. Extensive experiments on real-world data show that our approach outperforms the state-of-the-art technique, in terms of data utility and computational cost. PMID:28603388

StePS: Stereographically Projected Cosmological Simulations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rácz, Gábor; Szapudi, István; Csabai, István; Dobos, László

2018-05-01

StePS (Stereographically Projected Cosmological Simulations) compactifies the infinite spatial extent of the Universe into a finite sphere with isotropic boundary conditions to simulate the evolution of the large-scale structure. This eliminates the need for periodic boundary conditions, which are a numerical convenience unsupported by observation and which modifies the law of force on large scales in an unrealistic fashion. StePS uses stereographic projection for space compactification and naive O(N2) force calculation; this arrives at a correlation function of the same quality more quickly than standard (tree or P3M) algorithms with similar spatial and mass resolution. The N2 force calculation is easy to adapt to modern graphics cards, hence StePS can function as a high-speed prediction tool for modern large-scale surveys.

A perceptual metric for photo retouching.

PubMed

Kee, Eric; Farid, Hany

2011-12-13

In recent years, advertisers and magazine editors have been widely criticized for taking digital photo retouching to an extreme. Impossibly thin, tall, and wrinkle- and blemish-free models are routinely splashed onto billboards, advertisements, and magazine covers. The ubiquity of these unrealistic and highly idealized images has been linked to eating disorders and body image dissatisfaction in men, women, and children. In response, several countries have considered legislating the labeling of retouched photos. We describe a quantitative and perceptually meaningful metric of photo retouching. Photographs are rated on the degree to which they have been digitally altered by explicitly modeling and estimating geometric and photometric changes. This metric correlates well with perceptual judgments of photo retouching and can be used to objectively judge by how much a retouched photo has strayed from reality.

[Variation in closeness to reality of standardized resuscitation scenarios : Effects on the success of cognitive learning of medical students].

PubMed

Schaumberg, A

2015-04-01

Simulation often relies on a case-based learning approach and is used as a teaching tool for a variety of audiences. The knowledge transfer goes beyond the mere exchange of soft skills and practical abilities and also includes practical knowledge and decision-making behavior; however, verification of knowledge or practical skills seldom unfolds during simulations. Simulation-based learning seems to affect many learning domains and can, therefore, be considered to be multifactorial in nature. At present, studies examining the effects of learning environments with varying levels of reality on the cognitive long-term retention of students are lacking. The present study focused on the question whether case scenarios with varying levels of reality produce differences in the cognitive long-term retention of students, in particular with regard to the learning dimensions knowledge, understanding and transfer. The study was conducted on 153 students in the first clinical semester at the Justus-Liebig University of Giessen. Students were randomly selected and subsequently assigned, also in a random fashion, to two practice groups, i.e. realistic and unrealistic. In both groups the students were presented with standardized case scenarios consisting of three case studies, which were accurately defined with a case report containing a detailed description of each scenario and all relevant values so as to ensure identical conditions for both groups. The unrealistic group sat in an unfurnished practice room as a learning environment. The realistic group sat in a furnished learning environment with various background pictures and ambient noise. Students received examination questions before, immediately following and 14 days after the practice. Examination questions were identical at each of the three time points, classified into three learning dimensions following Bloom's taxonomy and evaluated. Furthermore, examination questions were supplemented by a questionnaire concerning the individual perception of reality and own learning success, to be filled in by students immediately after the practice. Examination questions and questionnaires were anonymous but associated with each other. Even with less experienced participants, realistic simulation design led to a significant increase of knowledge immediately after the end of the simulation. This effect, however, did not impact the cognitive long-term retention of students. While the realistic group showed a higher initial knowledge after the simulation, this "knowledge delta" was forgotten within 14 days, putting them back on par with the unrealistic comparison group. It could be significantly demonstrated that 2 weeks after the practice, comprehension questions were answered better than those on pure knowledge. Therefore, it can be concluded that even vaguely realistic simulation scenarios affect the learning dimension of understanding. For simulation-based learning the outcome depends not only on knowledge, practical skills and motivational variables but also on the onset of negative emotions, perception of own ability and personality profile. Simulation training alone does not appear to guarantee learning success but it seems to be necessary to establish a simulation setting suitable for the education level, needs and personality characteristics of the students.

Sugar as part of a balanced breakfast? What cereal advertisements teach children about healthy eating.

PubMed

LoDolce, Megan E; Harris, Jennifer L; Schwartz, Marlene B

2013-01-01

Marketing that targets children with energy-dense, nutrient-poor foods is a likely contributor to the childhood obesity crisis. High-sugar ready-to-eat cereals are the packaged food most frequently promoted in child-targeted food advertising on television. The authors combined content analysis of product nutritional quality and messages presented in cereal television advertisements with syndicated data on exposure to those ads. The analysis quantifies children's exposure to specific products and messages that appear in advertisements and compares it with adult exposure. Children viewed 1.7 ads per day for ready-to-eat cereals, and 87% of those ads promoted high-sugar products; adults viewed half as many ads, and ads viewed were equally likely to promote high- and low-sugar cereals. In addition, the messages presented in high-sugar ads viewed by children were significantly more likely to convey unrealistic and contradictory messages about cereal attributes and healthy eating. For example, 91% of high-sugar cereal ads viewed by children ascribed extraordinary powers to these products, and 67% portrayed healthy and unhealthy eating behaviors. Given children's vulnerability to the influence of advertising, the emotional and mixed messages used to promote high-sugar cereals are confusing and potentially misleading.

A high resolution WRF model for wind energy forecasting

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vincent, Claire Louise; Liu, Yubao

2010-05-01

The increasing penetration of wind energy into national electricity markets has increased the demand for accurate surface layer wind forecasts. There has recently been a focus on forecasting the wind at wind farm sites using both statistical models and numerical weather prediction (NWP) models. Recent advances in computing capacity and non-hydrostatic NWP models means that it is possible to nest mesoscale models down to Large Eddy Simulation (LES) scales over the spatial area of a typical wind farm. For example, the WRF model (Skamarock 2008) has been run at a resolution of 123 m over a wind farm site in complex terrain in Colorado (Liu et al. 2009). Although these modelling attempts indicate a great hope for applying such models for detailed wind forecasts over wind farms, one of the obvious challenges of running the model at this resolution is that while some boundary layer structures are expected to be modelled explicitly, boundary layer eddies into the inertial sub-range can only be partly captured. Therefore, the amount and nature of sub-grid-scale mixing that is required is uncertain. Analysis of Liu et al. (2009) modelling results in comparison to wind farm observations indicates that unrealistic wind speed fluctuations with a period of around 1 hour occasionally occurred during the two day modelling period. The problem was addressed by re-running the same modelling system with a) a modified diffusion constant and b) two-way nesting between the high resolution model and its parent domain. The model, which was run with horizontal grid spacing of 370 m, had dimensions of 505 grid points in the east-west direction and 490 points in the north-south direction. It received boundary conditions from a mesoscale model of resolution 1111 m. Both models had 37 levels in the vertical. The mesoscale model was run with a non-local-mixing planetary boundary layer scheme, while the 370 m model was run with no planetary boundary layer scheme. It was found that increasing the diffusion constant caused damping of the unrealistic fluctuations, but did not completely solve the problem. Using two-way nesting also mitigated the unrealistic fluctuations significantly. It can be concluded that for real case LES modelling of wind farm circulations, care should be taken to ensure the consistency between the mesoscale weather forcing and LES models to avoid exciting spurious noise along the forcing boundary. The development of algorithms that adequately model the sub-grid-scale mixing that cannot be resolved by LES models is an important area for further research. References Liu, Y. Y._W. Liu, W. Y.Y. Cheng, W. Wu, T. T. Warner and K. Parks, 2009: Simulating intra-farm wind variations with the WRF-RTFDDA-LES modeling system. 10th WRF Users' Workshop, Boulder, C, USA. June 23 - 26, 2009. Skamarock, W., J. Dudhia, D.O. Gill, D.M. Barker, M.G.Duda, X-Y. Huang, W. Wang and J.G. Powers, A Description of the Advanced Research WRF version 3, NCAR Technical Note TN-475+STR, NCAR, Boulder, Colorado, 2008.

GAPPARD: a computationally efficient method of approximating gap-scale disturbance in vegetation models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Scherstjanoi, M.; Kaplan, J. O.; Thürig, E.; Lischke, H.

2013-09-01

Models of vegetation dynamics that are designed for application at spatial scales larger than individual forest gaps suffer from several limitations. Typically, either a population average approximation is used that results in unrealistic tree allometry and forest stand structure, or models have a high computational demand because they need to simulate both a series of age-based cohorts and a number of replicate patches to account for stochastic gap-scale disturbances. The detail required by the latter method increases the number of calculations by two to three orders of magnitude compared to the less realistic population average approach. In an effort to increase the efficiency of dynamic vegetation models without sacrificing realism, we developed a new method for simulating stand-replacing disturbances that is both accurate and faster than approaches that use replicate patches. The GAPPARD (approximating GAP model results with a Probabilistic Approach to account for stand Replacing Disturbances) method works by postprocessing the output of deterministic, undisturbed simulations of a cohort-based vegetation model by deriving the distribution of patch ages at any point in time on the basis of a disturbance probability. With this distribution, the expected value of any output variable can be calculated from the output values of the deterministic undisturbed run at the time corresponding to the patch age. To account for temporal changes in model forcing (e.g., as a result of climate change), GAPPARD performs a series of deterministic simulations and interpolates between the results in the postprocessing step. We integrated the GAPPARD method in the vegetation model LPJ-GUESS, and evaluated it in a series of simulations along an altitudinal transect of an inner-Alpine valley. We obtained results very similar to the output of the original LPJ-GUESS model that uses 100 replicate patches, but simulation time was reduced by approximately the factor 10. Our new method is therefore highly suited for rapidly approximating LPJ-GUESS results, and provides the opportunity for future studies over large spatial domains, allows easier parameterization of tree species, faster identification of areas of interesting simulation results, and comparisons with large-scale datasets and results of other forest models.

Numerical solution of the electron transport equation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Woods, Mark

The electron transport equation has been solved many times for a variety of reasons. The main difficulty in its numerical solution is that it is a very stiff boundary value problem. The most common numerical methods for solving boundary value problems are symmetric collocation methods and shooting methods. Both of these types of methods can only be applied to the electron transport equation if the boundary conditions are altered with unrealistic assumptions because they require too many points to be practical. Further, they result in oscillating and negative solutions, which are physically meaningless for the problem at hand. For these reasons, all numerical methods for this problem to date are a bit unusual because they were designed to try and avoid the problem of extreme stiffness. This dissertation shows that there is no need to introduce spurious boundary conditions or invent other numerical methods for the electron transport equation. Rather, there already exists methods for very stiff boundary value problems within the numerical analysis literature. We demonstrate one such method in which the fast and slow modes of the boundary value problem are essentially decoupled. This allows for an upwind finite difference method to be applied to each mode as is appropriate. This greatly reduces the number of points needed in the mesh, and we demonstrate how this eliminates the need to define new boundary conditions. This method is verified by showing that under certain restrictive assumptions, the electron transport equation has an exact solution that can be written as an integral. We show that the solution from the upwind method agrees with the quadrature evaluation of the exact solution. This serves to verify that the upwind method is properly solving the electron transport equation. Further, it is demonstrated that the output of the upwind method can be used to compute auroral light emissions.

Taking the Sociological Imagination to School: An Analysis of the (Lack of) Impact of Information and Communication Technologies on Education Systems

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Somekh, Bridget

2004-01-01

This article suggests that it is time for sociologists to redirect their focus from critiques of policy makers' unrealistic visions for information and communication technologies (ICTs) to the more generic issues that consistently mobilise resistance to ICTs within schools and education systems. There is an extraordinary difference between young…

Being professional in the social media world.

PubMed

Chan, Steven D

2012-01-01

What is at stake for dentists in the world of social media? Because it is unrealistic to completely avoid the new network, dentists should master some of these skills: risk management, crises management, and reputation management, as well as understanding that the playing field is not even. Guidelines for professional use of media are presented, along with some suggestions for effective participation.

The Impact of an Educational Intervention to Protect Women against the Influence of Media Images

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Ogden, Jane; Smith, Lauren; Nolan, Helen; Moroney, Rachel; Lynch, Hannah

2011-01-01

Purpose: Media images of unrealistic beauty have been identified as a determinant of women's body dissatisfaction. This experimental study aims to explore whether the negative impact of such images could be reduced by a one-time educational intervention consisting of a presentation and discussion, teaching women to be critical of media images.…

Wilma Mankiller, Chief of the Cherokee Nation. The Library of Famous Women. First Edition.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Glassman, Bruce

Interspersed with the story of Wilma Mankiller's life is a brief history of the Cherokee Nation of Oklahoma and comments on unrealistic and negative stereotypes of Native Americans. In addition to recounting her life and achievements leading up to becoming the first woman chief of the Cherokee Nation, the book explores Wilma Mankiller's philosophy…

Dissatisfaction among women with "thunder thighs" undergoing closed aspirative lipoplasty.

PubMed

Lewis, C M

1987-01-01

In our practice, we have uncovered a small series of female patients with "thunder thighs" who were dissatisfied with results of closed aspirative lipoplasty. The common problem appears to be unrealistic expectations. These patients expected a change in body habitus. This article reiterates the need for careful patient selection and preoperative information of what the procedure can and cannot accomplish.

Recent Personnel Reforms of Public Universities in China and in Italy: A Comparison

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Ha, Sha

2018-01-01

Purpose of the present research is an investigation of the most recent personnel reforms of higher education institutions in China and in Italy. A one-to-one comparison between the two realities would have been unrealistic, given the enormous differences between the two Countries in size and historical development. We focused our analysis on some…

Undergraduate Student Expectations of University in the United Kingdom: What Really Matters to Them?

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Money, Julie; Nixon, Sarah; Tracy, Fran; Hennessy, Claire; Ball, Emma; Dinning, Track

2017-01-01

Students spend 12 to 14 years in school settings learning in what could be considered a carefully controlled and structured environment. Higher education may not offer the same landscape to students and it appears that many enter with unrealistic conceptions of what is expected of them and are faced with different approaches to aspects of…

Can we restore the fire process? What awaits us if we don't?

Treesearch

R. Gordon Schmidt

1996-01-01

This paper's title - "Can we restore the fire process? What awaits us if we don't?" - represents an ecologist's view of the world. I submit that this view is unrealistic. The first clause uses the term "restore" which implies reestablishing the fire process of the past. The second phrase uses the absolute term "don't"...

Caring for Each Other in a Peace Club

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Stomfay-Stitz, Aline; Wheeler, Edyth

2007-01-01

Each teacher has a favorite dream for the first weeks of the new school year: a calm and peaceful classroom. Yet, due to the tragic incidents of violence and school shootings, matched by an increase in bullying and harassment, such noble goals seem remote and unrealistic. The authors believe that there is a way to succeed through the concept of an…

Body Image and Self-Esteem among Adolescent Girls: Testing the Influence of Sociocultural Factors

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Clay, Daniel; Vignoles, Vivian L.; Dittmar, Helga

2005-01-01

In Western cultures, girls' self-esteem declines substantially during middle adolescence, with changes in body image proposed as a possible explanation. Body image develops in the context of sociocultural factors, such as unrealistic media images of female beauty. In a study of 136 U.K. girls aged 11-16, experimental exposure to either ultra-thin…

Modeling Temporal Crowd Work Quality with Limited Supervision

DTIC Science & Technology

2015-11-11

crowdsourcing, human computation, predic- tion, uncertainty-aware learning, time- series modeling Introduction While crowdsourcing offers a cost...individual correctness. As discussed ear- lier, such a strategy is difficult to employ in a live setting because it is unrealistic to assume that all...et al. 2014). Finally, there are interesting opportunities to investigate at the intersection of live task-routing with active-learning techniques

Quality Evidence about Leadership for Organizational and Student Learning in Schools

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Mulford, Bill

2005-01-01

Where do those in schools start sorting the wheat from the chaff, genuine growth potions offering long-term improvement from the elixirs, short-term opportunism and/or unrealistic expectations? The current and growing emphasis on evidence informed policy and practice is as good a place as any. The purpose of this article is to take up the issues…

A Model of Network Porosity

DTIC Science & Technology

2016-11-09

the model does not become a full probabilistic attack graph analysis of the network , whose data requirements are currently unrealistic. The second...flow. – Untrustworthy persons may intentionally try to exfiltrate known sensitive data to ex- ternal networks . People may also unintentionally leak...section will provide details on the components, procedures, data requirements, and parameters required to instantiate the network porosity model. These

Transparency in Early Childhood Education: What the West Can Learn from Australia's Focus on Well-Being

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Erwin, Elizabeth J.

2017-01-01

The landscape of early childhood education and care has become unrecognizable in many countries, particularly in the West. There is an increasing pressure to focus on outcomes over process, prescribed curricula, standardized assessments, and unrealistic academic expectations for young learners and the adults who work on their behalf. This shift in…

NIOSH national survey of long-haul truck drivers: Injury and safety.

PubMed

Chen, Guang X; Sieber, W Karl; Lincoln, Jennifer E; Birdsey, Jan; Hitchcock, Edward M; Nakata, Akinori; Robinson, Cynthia F; Collins, James W; Sweeney, Marie H

2015-12-01

Approximately 1,701,500 people were employed as heavy and tractor-trailer truck drivers in the United States in 2012. The majority of them were long-haul truck drivers (LHTDs). There are limited data on occupational injury and safety in LHTDs, which prompted a targeted national survey. The National Institute of Occupational Safety and Health conducted a nationally representative survey of 1265 LHTDs at 32 truck stops across the contiguous United States in 2010. Data were collected on truck crashes, near misses, moving violations, work-related injuries, work environment, safety climate, driver training, job satisfaction, and driving behaviors. Results suggested that an estimated 2.6% of LHTDs reported a truck crash in 2010, 35% reported at least one crash while working as an LHTD, 24% reported at least one near miss in the previous 7 days, 17% reported at least one moving violation ticket and 4.7% reported a non-crash injury involving days away from work in the previous 12 months. The majority (68%) of non-crash injuries among company drivers were not reported to employers. An estimate of 73% of LHTDs (16% often and 58% sometimes) perceived their delivery schedules unrealistically tight; 24% often continued driving despite fatigue, bad weather, or heavy traffic because they needed to deliver or pick up a load at a given time; 4.5% often drove 10miles per hours or more over the speed limit; 6.0% never wore a seatbelt; 36% were often frustrated by other drivers on the road; 35% often had to wait for access to a loading dock; 37% reported being noncompliant with hours-of-service rules (10% often and 27% sometimes); 38% of LHTDs perceived their entry-level training inadequate; and 15% did not feel that safety of workers was a high priority with their management. This survey brings to light a number of important safety issues for further research and interventions, e.g., high prevalence of truck crashes, injury underreporting, unrealistically tight delivery schedules, noncompliance with hours-of-service rules, and inadequate entry-level training. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

NIOSH national survey of long-haul truck drivers: Injury and safety

PubMed Central

Chen, Guang X.; Sieber, W. Karl; Lincoln, Jennifer E.; Birdsey, Jan; Hitchcock, Edward M.; Nakata, Akinori; Robinson, Cynthia F.; Collins, James W.; Sweeney, Marie H.

2015-01-01

Approximately 1,701,500 people were employed as heavy and tractor-trailer truck drivers in the United States in 2012. The majority of them were long-haul truck drivers (LHTDs). There are limited data on occupational injury and safety in LHTDs, which prompted a targeted national survey. The National Institute of Occupational Safety and Health conducted a nationally representative survey of 1265 LHTDs at 32 truck stops across the contiguous United States in 2010. Data were collected on truck crashes, near misses, moving violations, work-related injuries, work environment, safety climate, driver training, job satisfaction, and driving behaviors. Results suggested that an estimated 2.6% of LHTDs reported a truck crash in 2010, 35% reported at least one crash while working as an LHTD, 24% reported at least one near miss in the previous 7 days, 17% reported at least one moving violation ticket and 4.7% reported a non-crash injury involving days away from work in the previous 12 months. The majority (68%) of non-crash injuries among company drivers were not reported to employers. An estimate of 73% of LHTDs (16% often and 58% sometimes) perceived their delivery schedules unrealistically tight; 24% often continued driving despite fatigue, bad weather, or heavy traffic because they needed to deliver or pick up a load at a given time; 4.5% often drove 10 miles per hours or more over the speed limit; 6.0% never wore a seatbelt; 36% were often frustrated by other drivers on the road; 35% often had to wait for access to a loading dock; 37% reported being noncompliant with hours-of-service rules (10% often and 27% sometimes); 38% of LHTDs perceived their entry-level training inadequate; and 15% did not feel that safety of workers was a high priority with their management. This survey brings to light a number of important safety issues for further research and interventions, e.g., high prevalence of truck crashes, injury underreporting, unrealistically tight delivery schedules, noncompliance with hours-of-service rules, and inadequate entry-level training. PMID:26397196

Evaluating runoff simulations from the Community Land Model 4.0 using observations from flux towers and a mountainous watershed

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Li, Hongyi; Huang, Maoyi; Wigmosta, Mark S.

2011-12-24

Previous studies using the Community Land Model (CLM) focused on simulating landatmosphere interactions and water balance at continental to global scales, with limited attention paid to its capability for hydrologic simulations at watershed or regional scales. This study evaluates the performance of CLM 4.0 (CLM4) for hydrologic simulations, and explores possible directions of improvement. Specifically, it is found that CLM4 tends to produce unrealistically large temporal variation of runoff for applications at a mountainous catchment in the Northwest United States where subsurface runoff is dominant, as well as at a few flux tower sites. We show that runoff simulations frommore » CLM4 can be improved by: (1) increasing spatial resolution of the land surface representations; (2) calibrating parameter values; (3) replacing the subsurface formulation with a more general nonlinear function; (4) implementing the runoff generation schemes from the Variability Infiltration Capacity (VIC) model. This study also highlights the importance of evaluating both the energy and water fluxes application of land surface models across multiple scales.« less

Hydroponics as a valid tool to assess arsenic availability in mine soils.

PubMed

Moreno-Jiménez, E; Esteban, E; Fresno, T; de Egea, C López; Peñalosa, J M

2010-04-01

The low solubility of As in mine soils limits its phytoavailability. This makes the extrapolation of data obtained under hydroponic conditions unrealistic because the concentration in nutrient solution frequently overexposes plants to this metalloid. This work evaluates whether As supply in hydroponics resembles, to some extent, the As phytoavailable fraction in soils and the implications for phytoremediation. Phytotoxicity of As, in terms of biomass production, chlorophyll levels, and As concentrations in plants, was estimated and compared in both soils and hydroponics. In order for hydroponic conditions to be compared to soil conditions, plant exposure levels were measured in both cultures. Hydroponic As concentration ranging from 2-8microM equated to the same plant organ concentrations from soils with 700-3000mgkg(-1). Total and extractable As fractions exceeded those values, but As concentrations in pore water were bellow them. According to our results (i) hydroponics should include doses in the range 0-10microM As to allow the extrapolation of the results to As-polluted soils, and (ii) phytoextraction of As in mining sites will be limited by low As phytoavailability.

Champions for social change: Photovoice ethics in practice and 'false hopes' for policy and social change.

PubMed

Johnston, Gloria

2016-01-01

Photovoice methodology is growing in popularity in the health, education and social sciences as a research tool based on the core values of community-based participatory research. Most photovoice projects state a claim to the third goal of photovoice: to reach policy-makers or effect policy change. This paper examines the concerns of raising false hopes or unrealistic expectations amongst the participants of photovoice projects as they are positioned to be the champions for social change in their communities. The impetus for social change seems to lie in the hands of those most affected by the issue. This drive behind collective social action forms, what could be termed, a micro-social movement or comparative interest group. Looking to the potential use of social movement theory and resource mobilisation concepts, this paper poses a series of unanswered questions about the ethics of photovoice projects. The ethical concern centres on the focus of policy change as a key initiative; yet, most projects remain vague about the implementation and outcomes of this focus.

Seam tracking with adaptive image capture for fine-tuning of a high power laser welding process

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lahdenoja, Olli; Säntti, Tero; Laiho, Mika; Paasio, Ari; Poikonen, Jonne K.

2015-02-01

This paper presents the development of methods for real-time fine-tuning of a high power laser welding process of thick steel by using a compact smart camera system. When performing welding in butt-joint configuration, the laser beam's location needs to be adjusted exactly according to the seam line in order to allow the injected energy to be absorbed uniformly into both steel sheets. In this paper, on-line extraction of seam parameters is targeted by taking advantage of a combination of dynamic image intensity compression, image segmentation with a focal-plane processor ASIC, and Hough transform on an associated FPGA. Additional filtering of Hough line candidates based on temporal windowing is further applied to reduce unrealistic frame-to-frame tracking variations. The proposed methods are implemented in Matlab by using image data captured with adaptive integration time. The simulations are performed in a hardware oriented way to allow real-time implementation of the algorithms on the smart camera system.

The current state of drug discovery and a potential role for NMR metabolomics.

PubMed

Powers, Robert

2014-07-24

The pharmaceutical industry has significantly contributed to improving human health. Drugs have been attributed to both increasing life expectancy and decreasing health care costs. Unfortunately, there has been a recent decline in the creativity and productivity of the pharmaceutical industry. This is a complex issue with many contributing factors resulting from the numerous mergers, increase in out-sourcing, and the heavy dependency on high-throughput screening (HTS). While a simple solution to such a complex problem is unrealistic and highly unlikely, the inclusion of metabolomics as a routine component of the drug discovery process may provide some solutions to these problems. Specifically, as the binding affinity of a chemical lead is evolved during the iterative structure-based drug design process, metabolomics can provide feedback on the selectivity and the in vivo mechanism of action. Similarly, metabolomics can be used to evaluate and validate HTS leads. In effect, metabolomics can be used to eliminate compounds with potential efficacy and side effect problems while prioritizing well-behaved leads with druglike characteristics.

Testing Small CPAS Parachutes Using HIVAS

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Ray, Eric S.; Hennings, Elsa; Bernatovich, Michael A.

2013-01-01

The High Velocity Airflow System (HIVAS) facility at the Naval Air Warfare Center (NAWC) at China Lake was successfully used as an alternative to flight test to determine parachute drag performance of two small Capsule Parachute Assembly System (CPAS) canopies. A similar parachute with known performance was also tested as a control. Realtime computations of drag coefficient were unrealistically low. This is because HIVAS produces a non-uniform flow which rapidly decays from a high central core flow. Additional calibration runs were performed to characterize this flow assuming radial symmetry from the centerline. The flow field was used to post-process effective flow velocities at each throttle setting and parachute diameter using the definition of the momentum flux factor. Because one parachute had significant oscillations, additional calculations were required to estimate the projected flow at off-axis angles. The resulting drag data from HIVAS compared favorably to previously estimated parachute performance based on scaled data from analogous CPAS parachutes. The data will improve drag area distributions in the next version of the CPAS Model Memo.

The Moderated Effects of Video Feedback for Social Anxiety Disorder

PubMed Central

Rodebaugh, Thomas L.; Heimberg, Richard G.; Schultz, Luke T.; Blackmore, Michelle

2010-01-01

Despite initially positive results, video feedback for social anxiety has never been shown to reduce social anxiety in a controlled experiment with diagnosed participants, and only once with undiagnosed participants. Previous studies arguably did not detect such an effect because of limited assessment of anxiety and potential moderators. We tested video feedback with cognitive preparation among treatment-seeking participants with a primary diagnosis of social anxiety disorder. In Session 1, participants gave an extemporaneous speech and either received the intervention or not. In Session 2, 6 to 14 days later, participants gave a second extemporaneous speech. The intervention improved self-perception of performance, particularly for those participants with the most unrealistically negative impressions of their performance (i.e., high self-observer discrepancy). In addition, the intervention reduced anticipatory anxiety for the second speech for participants with high self-observer discrepancy. These findings extend previous results regarding video feedback and suggest that the intervention may be useful for people with social anxiety disorder and higher self-observer discrepancies for a specific task. PMID:20471783

The influence of anharmonic and solvent effects on the theoretical vibrational spectra of the guanine-cytosine base pairs in Watson-Crick and Hoogsteen configurations.

PubMed

Bende, Attila; Muntean, Cristina M

2014-03-01

The theoretical IR and Raman spectra of the guanine-cytosine DNA base pairs in Watson-Crick and Hoogsteen configurations were computed using DFT method with M06-2X meta-hybrid GGA exchange-correlation functional, including the anharmonic corrections and solvent effects. The results for harmonic frequencies and their anharmonic corrections were compared with our previously calculated values obtained with the B3PW91 hybrid GGA functional. Significant differences were obtained for the anharmonic corrections calculated with the two different DFT functionals, especially for the stretching modes, while the corresponding harmonic frequencies did not differ considerable. For the Hoogtseen case the H⁺ vibration between the G-C base pair can be characterized as an asymmetric Duffing oscillator and therefore unrealistic anharmonic corrections for normal modes where this proton vibration is involved have been obtained. The spectral modification due to the anharmonic corrections, solvent effects and the influence of sugar-phosphate group for the Watson-Crick and Hoogsteen base pair configurations, respectively, were also discussed. For the Watson-Crick case also the influence of the stacking interaction on the theoretical IR and Raman spectra was analyzed. Including the anharmonic correction in our normal mode analysis is essential if one wants to obtain correct assignments of the theoretical frequency values as compared with the experimental spectra.

Medical Ethics in Plastic Surgery: A Mini Review

PubMed Central

Nejadsarvari, Nasrin; Ebrahimi, Ali; Ebrahimi, Azin; Hashem-Zade, Haleh

2016-01-01

Currently, cosmetic surgery is spread around the world. Several factors are involved in this rapidly evolving field such as socio-economic development, changes in cultural norms, globalization and the effects of Western culture, advertising, media, and mental disorders. Nowadays the cosmetic surgery is becoming a profitable business, which deals exclusively with human appearance and less from the perspective of beauty based on physical protests and considering factors such as sex, age, and race. The morality of plastic surgery subspecialty has undergone many moral dilemmas in the past few years. The role of the patient regardless of his unrealistic dreams has questionable ethical dimension. The problem is the loss of human values and replacing them with false values, of pride and glory to a charismatic person of higher status, that may underlie some of the posed ethical dilemmas. Cosmetic surgery has huge difference with the general principle of legal liability in professional orientation, because the objective for cosmetic surgeries is different from common therapeutic purposes. To observe excellence in the medical profession, we should always keep in mind that these service providers, often as a therapist (healer) must maintain a commitment and priority for patient safety and prior to any action, a real apply for this service recipient should be present. Also, patient–physician confidentiality is the cornerstone of medical ethics. In this review, we study the issues addressed and the ways that they can be resolved. PMID:27853683

Medical Ethics in Plastic Surgery: A Mini Review.

PubMed

Nejadsarvari, Nasrin; Ebrahimi, Ali; Ebrahimi, Azin; Hashem-Zade, Haleh

2016-09-01

Currently, cosmetic surgery is spread around the world. Several factors are involved in this rapidly evolving field such as socio-economic development, changes in cultural norms, globalization and the effects of Western culture, advertising, media, and mental disorders. Nowadays the cosmetic surgery is becoming a profitable business, which deals exclusively with human appearance and less from the perspective of beauty based on physical protests and considering factors such as sex, age, and race. The morality of plastic surgery subspecialty has undergone many moral dilemmas in the past few years. The role of the patient regardless of his unrealistic dreams has questionable ethical dimension. The problem is the loss of human values and replacing them with false values, of pride and glory to a charismatic person of higher status, that may underlie some of the posed ethical dilemmas. Cosmetic surgery has huge difference with the general principle of legal liability in professional orientation, because the objective for cosmetic surgeries is different from common therapeutic purposes. To observe excellence in the medical profession, we should always keep in mind that these service providers, often as a therapist (healer) must maintain a commitment and priority for patient safety and prior to any action, a real apply for this service recipient should be present. Also, patient-physician confidentiality is the cornerstone of medical ethics. In this review, we study the issues addressed and the ways that they can be resolved.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Miller, David L.; Schoof, Justin C.; Hobbs, Michael L.

This report presents plots of specific heat, enthalpy, entropy, and Gibbs free energy for 1439 species in the JCZS2i database. Included in this set of species are 496 condensed-phase species and 943 gas-phase species. The gas phase species contain 80 anions and 112 cations for a total of 192 ions. The JCZS2i database is used in conjunction with the TIGER thermochemical code to predict thermodynamic states from ambient conditions to high temperatures and pressures. Predictions from the TIGER code using the JCZS2i database can be used in shock physics codes where temperatures may be as high as 20,000 K andmore » ions may be present. Such high temperatures were not considered in the original JCZS database, and extrapolations made for these temperatures were unrealistic. For example, specific heat would sometimes go negative at high temperatures which fails the definition of specific heat. The JCZS2i database is a new version of the JCZS database that is being created to address these inaccuracies. The purpose of the current report is to visualize the high temperature extrapolations to insure that the specific heat, enthalpy, entropy, and Gibbs free energy predictions are reasonable up to 20,000 K.« less

Present-Day Vegetation Helps Quantifying Past Land Cover in Selected Regions of the Czech Republic

PubMed Central

Abraham, Vojtěch; Oušková, Veronika; Kuneš, Petr

2014-01-01

The REVEALS model is a tool for recalculating pollen data into vegetation abundances on a regional scale. We explored the general effect of selected parameters by performing simulations and ascertained the best model setting for the Czech Republic using the shallowest samples from 120 fossil sites and data on actual regional vegetation (60 km radius). Vegetation proportions of 17 taxa were obtained by combining the CORINE Land Cover map with forest inventories, agricultural statistics and habitat mapping data. Our simulation shows that changing the site radius for all taxa substantially affects REVEALS estimates of taxa with heavy or light pollen grains. Decreasing the site radius has a similar effect as increasing the wind speed parameter. However, adjusting the site radius to 1 m for local taxa only (even taxa with light pollen) yields lower, more correct estimates despite their high pollen signal. Increasing the background radius does not affect the estimates significantly. Our comparison of estimates with actual vegetation in seven regions shows that the most accurate relative pollen productivity estimates (PPEs) come from Central Europe and Southern Sweden. The initial simulation and pollen data yielded unrealistic estimates for Abies under the default setting of the wind speed parameter (3 m/s). We therefore propose the setting of 4 m/s, which corresponds to the spring average in most regions of the Czech Republic studied. Ad hoc adjustment of PPEs with this setting improves the match 3–4-fold. We consider these values (apart from four exceptions) to be appropriate, because they are within the ranges of standard errors, so they are related to original PPEs. Setting a 1 m radius for local taxa (Alnus, Salix, Poaceae) significantly improves the match between estimates and actual vegetation. However, further adjustments to PPEs exceed the ranges of original values, so their relevance is uncertain. PMID:24936973

On the Origin of the Saturnian Satellite System: Did Iapetus Form In-Situ?

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Mosqueira, I.; Estrada, P. R.

2005-01-01

Current models of planet and satellite formation are marred by our lack of understanding regarding the turbulent state of accretion disks. According to the Rayleigh criterion, Keplerian disks are hydrodynamically stable. Indeed, it has been argued that a carefully designed Taylor Couette experiment shows stability in the case of positive radial gradients in specific angular momentum even for high Reynolds numbers [1], in agreement with numerical simulations which consistently show turbulence decay [2]. Other possible sources of turbulence may fail due to low ionization, may decay as the optical depth decreases due to dust coagulation, may involve unrealistic boundary conditions, or result in limited transport. The difficulty stems not only from the degree of turbulence, but also from the kind of turbulence, and whether it may be characterized by an alpha parameter.

A haptic device for guide wire in interventional radiology procedures.

PubMed

Moix, Thomas; Ilic, Dejan; Bleuler, Hannes; Zoethout, Jurjen

2006-01-01

Interventional Radiology (IR) is a minimally invasive procedure where thin tubular instruments, guide wires and catheters, are steered through the patient's vascular system under X-ray imaging. In order to perform these procedures, a radiologist has to be trained to master hand-eye coordination, instrument manipulation and procedure protocols. The existing simulation systems all have major drawbacks: the use of modified instruments, unrealistic insertion lengths, high inertia of the haptic device that creates a noticeably degraded dynamic behavior or excessive friction that is not properly compensated for. In this paper we propose a quality training environment dedicated to IR. The system is composed of a virtual reality (VR) simulation of the patient's anatomy linked to a robotic interface providing haptic force feedback. This paper focuses on the requirements, design and prototyping of a specific haptic interface for guide wires.

Stem cell hype: media portrayal of therapy translation.

PubMed

Kamenova, Kalina; Caulfield, Timothy

2015-03-11

In this Perspective, we examine the portrayal of translational stem cell research in major daily newspapers in Canada, the United States, and the United Kingdom between 2010 and 2013, focusing on how timelines for stem cell therapies were represented before and after Geron terminated its pioneering stem cell program. Our content analysis reveals that press coverage has shifted from ethical, legal, and social issues to clinical translation issues, and highly optimistic timelines were provided with no substantial change in representation over time. Scientists were the dominant voice with respect to translation timelines. The findings raise questions about the degree to which the media's overly optimistic slant fosters unrealistic expectations regarding the speed of clinical translation and highlight the ethical responsibility of stem cell researchers as public communicators. Copyright © 2015, American Association for the Advancement of Science.

Detecting a Non-Gaussian Stochastic Background of Gravitational Radiation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Drasco, Steve; Flanagan, Éanna É.

2002-12-01

We derive a detection method for a stochastic background of gravitational waves produced by events where the ratio of the average time between events to the average duration of an event is large. Such a signal would sound something like popcorn popping. Our derivation is based on the somewhat unrealistic assumption that the duration of an event is smaller than the detector time resolution.

The Role of Inflexible Friendship Beliefs, Rumination, and Low Self-Worth in Early Adolescents' Friendship Jealousy and Adjustment

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Lavallee, Kristen L.; Parker, Jeffrey G.

2009-01-01

Two focal social cognitive processes were evaluated in a structural model for their direct and indirect roles in early adolescents' jealousy surrounding their closest friend in a sample of 325 early adolescents (169 girls and 156 boys) ages 11-14 years. Individuals who are rigid and unrealistic about meeting their friendship needs were more…

How Much Curriculum Change Is Appropriate? Defining a Zone of Feasible Innovation

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Rogan, John M.

2007-01-01

The article grapples with the question of how much curriculum change is appropriate in a given context and in a given time frame. How can a balance be struck between stagnation, on the one hand, and the promotion of unrealistic innovation on the other? In answer to this dilemma, the concept of a zone of feasible innovation (ZFI) is proposed and…

An Evaluation of the Incremental Validity of the MMPI-2 Superlative (S) Scale in an Inpatient Psychiatric Sample

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Archer, Robert P.; Handel, Richard W.; Couvadelli, Barbara

2004-01-01

The MMPI-2 Superlative (S) scale was developed by Butcher and Han (1995) to assess individuals tendencies to present themselves in an unrealistically positive light. The current study examined the performance of the L, K, and S scales in accurately distinguishing the MMPI-2 profiles of 379 psychiatric inpatients who produced one or more elevations…

ACOSS Six (Active Control of Space Structures)

DTIC Science & Technology

1981-10-01

modes, specially useful simpler conditions for ensuring closed-loop asymptotic stability are also derived. In addition, conditions for robustness of...in this initial study of FOCL stability and robustness . Such a condition is strong but not unreasonable nor unrealistic. Many useful simple in- sights...smallest possible feedback gains) and many interesting numerical results on closed-loop stability and robustness of the modal-dashpot designs. The

Stem cell terminology: practical, theological and ethical implications.

PubMed

Shanner, Laura

2002-01-01

Stem cell policy discussions frequently confuse embryonic and fetal sources of stem cells, and label untested, non-reproductive cloning as "therapeutic." Such misnomers distract attention from significant practical and ethical implications: accelerated research agendas tend to be supported at the expense of physical risks to women, theological implications in a multi-faith community, informed consent for participation in research, and treatment decisions altered by unrealistic expectations.

Crossing the Finish Line: Career Adaptability and Its Relationship to Athletic Identity, Academic Motivation, and Role Conflict for Division I Student-Athletes

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Letawsky Shultz, Nicole

2017-01-01

The responsibilities of being a Division I student-athlete often leave little time for experiences outside of sport that are critical for their future careers. Many student-athletes have unrealistic expectations of competing in their sport after college, while others expend little effort exploring potential careers. This study examines how career…

The influence of hand-held information and communication technology on visitor perceptions of risk and risk-related behavior

Treesearch

Steven R. Martin; Kristen Pope

2012-01-01

As devices like personal locator beacons become more readily available, more visitors may bring them into wilderness and use them to request rescues and may develop unrealistic expectations of rescue. In an exploratory study in 2009, 235 overnight visitors to the King Range Wilderness in California completed a written survey. Of the respondents, 40 percent considered...

Prevalence and correlates of poor sleep quality and daytime sleepiness in Belgian truck drivers.

PubMed

Braeckman, Lutgart; Verpraet, Rini; Van Risseghem, Marleen; Pevernagie, Dirk; De Bacquer, Dirk

2011-03-01

Sleepiness and sleep complaints are common among professional drivers. Sleepiness is a considerable problem not only because it affects the drivers' well-being, but also because of the consequences for performance and safety. Assessment of the (self-reported) prevalence and research into the risk factors are thus an important health issue and are also indispensable to prevent productivity loss and work-related accidents and injuries. Therefore, the aim of this study was to describe sleeping, driving, and health characteristics of Belgian truck drivers and to determine occupational and individual factors associated with poor sleep quality and daytime sleepiness. Cross-sectional data were collected using a self-administered questionnaire that included the Pittsburgh Sleep Quality Index (PSQI), Epworth Sleepiness Scale (ESS), and Berlin Questionnaire (BQ). The mean (SD) age of the 476 studied truck drivers was 42.7 (10.2) yrs and the mean (SD) body mass index was 27.3 (5.1) kg/m(2). Approximately 47% declared that they drove >50 h/wk and found their work schedule unrealistic. The mean (SD) PSQI score was 4.45 (2.7); poor quality of sleep (PSQI >5) was found in 27.2%. The mean (SD) ESS score was 6.79 (4.17); 18% had a score >10. The BQ indicated that 21.5% had a higher risk on obstructive sleep apnea. In multiple logistic regression analysis, low educational level (odds ratio [OR] 1.86), current smoking (OR 1.75), unrealistic work schedule (OR 1.75), and risk for obstructive sleep apnea (OR 2.97) were found to be independent correlates of daytime sleepiness. Poor sleep quality was significantly associated with poor self-perceived health (OR 1.95), unrealistic work schedule (OR 2.85), low job satisfaction (OR 1.91), and less driving experience (OR 1.73). These results show that poor sleep quality and daytime sleepiness were prevalent in Belgian truck drivers. Taking into account that several significant correlates with respect to these sleep problems were identified both at the individual and the occupational level, comprehensive countermeasures to improve working conditions and organization are needed, as well as health promotion interventions, to ensure the safety and well-being of truck drivers.

The response of an ocean general circulation model to surface wind stress produced by an atmospheric general circulation model

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Huang, B.; Schneider, E.K.

1995-10-01

Two surface wind stress datasets for 1979-91, one based on observations and the other from an investigation of the COLA atmospheric general circulation model (AGCM) with prescribed SST, are used to drive the GFDL ocean general circulation model. These two runs are referred to as the control and COLA experiments, respectively. Simulated SST and upper-ocean heat contents (HC) in the tropical Pacific Ocean are compared with observations and between experiments. Both simulation reproduced the observed mean SST and HC fields as well as their annual cycles realistically. Major errors common to both runs are colder than observed SST in themore » eastern equatorial ocean and HC in the western Pacific south of the equator, with errors generally larger in the COLA experiment. New errors arising from the AGCM wind forcing include higher SST near the South American coast throughout the year and weaker HC gradients along the equator in boreal spring. The former is associated with suppressed coastal upwelling by weak along shore AGCM winds, and the latter is caused by weaker equatorial easterlies in boreal spring. The low-frequency ENSO fluctuations are also realistic for both runs. Correlations between the observed and simulated SST anomalies from the COLA simulation are as high as those from the control run in the central equatorial Pacific. A major problem in the COLA simulation is the appearance of unrealistic tropical cold anomalies during the boreal spring of mature El Nino years. These anomalies propagate along the equator from the western Pacific to the eastern coast in about three months, and temporarily eliminate the warm SST and HC anomalies in the eastern Pacific. This erroneous oceanic response in the COLA simulation is caused by a reversal of the westerly wind anomalies on the equator, associated with an unrealistic southward shift of the ITCZ in boreal spring during El Nino events. 66 refs., 16 figs.« less

The influence of social media and easily accessible online information on the aesthetic plastic surgery practice: literature review and our own experience.

PubMed

Montemurro, Paolo; Porcnik, Ales; Hedén, Per; Otte, Maximilian

2015-04-01

Patients interested in aesthetic plastic surgery procedures increasingly seek advice on social media and rely on easily accessible online information. The investigatory goal was to determine the impact of this phenomenon on the everyday aesthetic plastic surgery practice. Five hundred consecutive patients completed a questionnaire prior to their consultation with a plastic surgeon at our clinic. A questionnaire was also completed by 128 plastic surgeons practising in 19 different countries. A literature review was performed. Almost all patients (95%) used the internet to collect information prior to consultation, for 68% of them it being their first search method. Social media were used by 46% of patients and 40% of these were strongly influenced when choosing a specific doctor. The majority of plastic surgeons (85%) thought the information found on social media could lead to unrealistic expectations. However, 45% of plastic surgeons believed that their consultations became easier after the advent of social media, 29% found them more difficult. A literature review showed a high percentage of poor quality internet websites regarding plastic surgery and an increase in use of social media among plastic surgeons. The internet and social media play an important and growing role in plastic surgery. This results in more informed patients but may create unrealistic expectations. Even if the internet provides ample information, it cannot replace the face-to-face consultation, which always should remain a detailed process, covering both risks and limitations of alternative procedures. Available literature on how social media influences the medical practice is still scarce and further research is needed. This journal requires that authors assign a level of evidence to each article. For a full description of these Evidence-Based Medicine ratings, please refer to the Table of Contents or the online Instructions to Authors www.springer.com/00266.

Managing the difficult penile prosthesis patient.

PubMed

Trost, Landon W; Baum, Neil; Hellstrom, Wayne J G

2013-04-01

Inflatable penile prostheses (IPPs) are associated with excellent long-term outcomes and patient/partner satisfaction. A small percentage of patients remain dissatisfied, despite acceptable surgical results. This study aims to evaluate factors associated with patient satisfaction and dissatisfaction, define patient characteristics, which may identify elevated risk of postoperative dissatisfaction, and describe management strategies to optimize functional and psychological patient outcomes. A review of urologic and non-urologic cosmetic surgery literature was performed to identify factors associated with patient satisfaction/dissatisfaction. Emphasis was placed on articles defining "high risk" or psychologically challenging patients. Preoperative factors associated with patient satisfaction/dissatisfaction and character traits, which may identify elevated risk of postoperative dissatisfaction or otherwise indicate a psychologically challenging patient. Contemporary patient and partner satisfaction rates following IPP are 92-100% and 91-95%, respectively. Factors associated with satisfaction include decreased preoperative expectations, favorable female partner sexual function, body mass index ≤30, and absence of Peyronie's disease or prior prostatectomy. Determinants of dissatisfaction include perceived/actual loss of penile length, decreased glanular engorgement, altered erectile/ejaculatory sensation, pain, diminished cosmetic outcome, difficulty with device function, partner dissatisfaction and perception of unnatural sensation, complications, and extent of alternative treatments offered. Personality characteristics which may indicate psychologically challenging IPP patients include obsessive/compulsive tendencies, unrealistic expectations, patients undergoing revision surgery, those seeking multiple surgical opinions, feeling of entitlement, patients in denial of their prior erectile/sexual function and current disease status, or those with other psychiatric disorders. The mnemonic CURSED Patient is presented: "Compulsive/obsessive, Unrealistic, Revision, Surgeon Shopping, Entitled, Denial, and Psychiatric." Although the majority of IPP patients experience excellent, durable satisfaction and outcomes, a challenging subset of patients may be at increased risk of postoperative dissatisfaction. Appropriate recognition/prevention and management of this cohort may help to establish and strengthen relationships, reduce physical, emotional, and legal risk, and ultimately enhance patient satisfaction. © 2013 International Society for Sexual Medicine.

Simulation of dynamic magnetic particle capture and accumulation around a ferromagnetic wire

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Choomphon-anomakhun, Natthaphon; Ebner, Armin D.; Natenapit, Mayuree; Ritter, James A.

2017-04-01

A new approach for modeling high gradient magnetic separation (HGMS)-type systems during the time-dependent capture and accumulation of magnetic particles by a ferromagnetic wire was developed. This new approach assumes the fluid (slurry) viscosity, comprised of water and magnetic particles, is a function of the magnetic particle concentration in the fluid, with imposed maxima on both the particle concentration and fluid viscosity to avoid unrealistic limits. In 2-D, the unsteady-state Navier-Stokes equations for compressible fluid flow and the unsteady-state continuity equations applied separately to the water and magnetic particle phases in the slurry were solved simultaneously, along with the Laplace equations for the magnetic potential applied separately to the slurry and wire, to evaluate the velocities and concentrations around the wire in a narrow channel using COMSOL Multiphysics. The results from this model revealed very realistic magnetically attractive and repulsive zones forming in time around the wire. These collection zones formed their own impermeable viscous phase during accumulation that was also magnetic with its area and magnetism impacting locally both the fluid flow and magnetic fields around the wire. These collection zones increased with an increase in the applied magnetic field. For a given set of conditions, the capture ability peaked and then decreased to zero at infinite time during magnetic particle accumulation in the collection zones. Predictions of the collection efficiency from a steady-state, clean collector, trajectory model could not show this behavior; it also agreed only qualitatively with the dynamic model and then only at the early stages of collection and more so at a higher applied magnetic field. Also, the collection zones decreased in size when the accumulation regions included magnetic particle magnetization (realistic) compared to when they excluded it (unrealistic). Overall, this might be the first time a mathematical model was shown to be capable of realistically predicting the dynamic nature of magnetic particle capture and accumulation around a wire in HGMS-type systems.

Species sensitivity distribution evaluation for selenium in fish eggs: considerations for development of a Canadian tissue-based guideline.

PubMed

DeForest, David K; Gilron, Guy; Armstrong, Sarah A; Robertson, Erin L

2012-01-01

A freshwater Se guideline was developed for consideration based on concentrations in fish eggs or ovaries, with a focus on Canadian species, following the Canadian Council of Ministers of the Environment protocol for developing guideline values. When sufficient toxicity data are available, the protocol recommends deriving guidelines as the 5th percentile of the species sensitivity distribution (SSD). When toxicity data are limited, the protocol recommends a lowest value approach, where the lowest toxicity threshold is divided by a safety factor (e.g., 10). On the basis of a comprehensive review of the current literature and an assessment of the data therein, there are sufficient egg and ovary Se data available for freshwater fish to develop an SSD. For most fish species, Se EC10 values (10% effect concentrations) could be derived, but for some species, only no-observed-effect concentrations and/or lowest-observed-effect concentrations could be identified. The 5th percentile egg and ovary Se concentrations from the SSD were consistently 20 µg/g dry weight (dw) for the best-fitting distributions. In contrast, the lowest value approach using a safety factor of 10 would result in a Se egg and ovary guideline of 2 µg/g dw, which is unrealistically conservative, as this falls within the range of egg and ovary Se concentrations in laboratory control fish and fish collected from reference sites. An egg and ovary Se guideline of 20 µg/g dw should be considered a conservative, broadly applicable guideline, as no species mean toxicity thresholds lower than this value have been identified to date. When concentrations exceed this guideline, site-specific studies with local fish species, conducted using a risk-based approach, may result in higher egg and ovary Se toxicity thresholds. Copyright © 2011 SETAC.

The zeta potential of extended dielectrics and conductors in terms of streaming potential and streaming current measurements.

PubMed

Gallardo-Moreno, Amparo M; Vadillo-Rodríguez, Virginia; Perera-Núñez, Julia; Bruque, José M; González-Martín, M Luisa

2012-07-21

The electrical characterization of surfaces in terms of the zeta potential (ζ), i.e., the electric potential contributing to the interaction potential energy, is of major importance in a wide variety of industrial, environmental and biomedical applications in which the integration of any material with the surrounding media is initially mediated by the physico-chemical properties of its outer surface layer. Among the different existing electrokinetic techniques for obtaining ζ, streaming potential (V(str)) and streaming current (I(str)) are important when dealing with flat-extended samples. Mostly dielectric materials have been subjected to this type of analysis and only a few papers can be found in the literature regarding the electrokinetic characterization of conducting materials. Nevertheless, a standardized procedure is typically followed to calculate ζ from the measured data and, importantly, it is shown in this paper that such a procedure leads to incorrect zeta potential values when conductors are investigated. In any case, assessment of a reliable numerical value of ζ requires careful consideration of the origin of the input data and the characteristics of the experimental setup. In particular, it is shown that the cell resistance (R) typically obtained through a.c. signals (R(a.c.)), and needed for the calculations of ζ, always underestimates the zeta potential values obtained from streaming potential measurements. The consideration of R(EK), derived from the V(str)/I(str) ratio, leads to reliable values of ζ when dielectrics are investigated. For metals, the contribution of conductivity of the sample to the cell resistance provokes an underestimation of R(EK), which leads to unrealistic values of ζ. For the electrical characterization of conducting samples I(str) measurements constitute a better choice. In general, the findings gathered in this manuscript establish a measurement protocol for obtaining reliable zeta potentials of dielectrics and conductors based on the intrinsic electrokinetic behavior of both types of samples.

Applicability of meteor radiant determination methods depending on orbit type. I. High-eccentric orbits

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Svoren, J.; Neslusan, L.; Porubcan, V.

1993-07-01

It is evident that there is no uniform method of calculating meteor radiants which would yield reliable results for all types of cometary orbits. In the present paper an analysis of this problem is presented, together with recommended methods for various types of orbits. Some additional methods resulting from mathematical modelling are presented and discussed together with Porter's, Steel-Baggaley's and Hasegawa's methods. In order to be able to compare how suitable the application of the individual radiant determination methods is, it is necessary to determine the accuracy with which they approximate real meteor orbits. To verify the accuracy with which the orbit of a meteoroid with at least one node at 1 AU fits the original orbit of the parent body, we applied the Southworth-Hawkins D-criterion (Southworth, R.B., Hawkins, G.S.: 1963, Smithson. Contr. Astrophys 7, 261). D<=0.1 indicates a very good fit of orbits, 0.10.2 the fit is rather poor and the change of orbit unrealistic. The optimal methods with the smallest values of D for given types of orbits are shown in two series of six plots. The new method of rotation around the line of apsides we propose is very appropriate in the region of small inclinations. There is no doubt that Hasegawa's omega-adjustment method (Hasegawa, I.: 1990, Publ. Astron. Soc. Japan 42, 175) has the widest application. A comparison of the theoretical radiants with the observed radiants of seven known meteor showers is also presented.

Introducing the Global Fire WEather Database (GFWED)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Field, R. D.

2015-12-01

The Canadian Fire Weather Index (FWI) System is the mostly widely used fire danger rating system in the world. We have developed a global database of daily FWI System calculations beginning in 1980 called the Global Fire WEather Database (GFWED) gridded to a spatial resolution of 0.5° latitude by 2/3° longitude. Input weather data were obtained from the NASA Modern Era Retrospective-Analysis for Research (MERRA), and two different estimates of daily precipitation from rain gauges over land. FWI System Drought Code calculations from the gridded datasets were compared to calculations from individual weather station data for a representative set of 48 stations in North, Central and South America, Europe, Russia, Southeast Asia and Australia. Agreement between gridded calculations and the station-based calculations tended to be most different at low latitudes for strictly MERRA-based calculations. Strong biases could be seen in either direction: MERRA DC over the Mato Grosso in Brazil reached unrealistically high values exceeding DC=1500 during the dry season but was too low over Southeast Asia during the dry season. These biases are consistent with those previously-identified in MERRA's precipitation and reinforce the need to consider alternative sources of precipitation data. GFWED is being used by researchers around the world for analyzing historical relationships between fire weather and fire activity at large scales, in identifying large-scale atmosphere-ocean controls on fire weather, and calibration of FWI-based fire prediction models. These applications will be discussed. More information on GFWED can be found at http://data.giss.nasa.gov/impacts/gfwed/

Coding Without Your Crystal Ball: Unanticipated Object-Oriented Reuse

DTIC Science & Technology

2009-12-01

Abstract In many ways, existing languages place unrealistic expectations on library and framework designers, allowing some varieties of client reuse only...if it is explicitly— sometimes manually—supported. Instead, we should aim for the ideal: a language design that reduces the amount of prognostication...that is required on the part of the original designers. In particular, I show that languages can and should support a combination of structural and

Fuel Tank Non-Nuclear Vulnerability Test Program

DTIC Science & Technology

1975-02-01

configurations and structures , for all the threat velocities and obli~quities, alid for all the different fuel tank conditions. This is very unrealistic and can...of operational aircraft. It is, ot. course, imtpractical to simiul~ate all the potential conditions, threat variables, structural materials, and...simulate the structural members of the aircraft to which the aircraft skin and fuel tank walls are attached. The effect that paint, on the aircraft

JPRS Report. Near East & South Asia.

DTIC Science & Technology

1990-11-02

Discussed [YEDI’OT AHARONOT17 Sep] 7 Economic Forecasts for New Year Given [MA’ARJV(Business Supplement) 18 Sep] 9 SOUTH ASIA INDIA Report...November Polls [THE TIMES OF INDIA 20 Sep] 18 Reservation Policy Seen Creating Discord, Divisions [ANANDA BAZAR PATRIKA 18 Aug] 18 Congress-BJP...8217Unrealistic’ [THE HINDU 20 Sep] 28 Officials Predict Record Foodgrain Production [THE TIMES OF INDIA 14 Sep] 29 Commentary Questions State

Air Force IT System Security Compliance with Law and Policy

DTIC Science & Technology

2016-04-01

production /1/saf_cio_a6/publication/afpd33-2/afpd33-2.pdf 21 AFI33-210, Air Force Certification and Accreditation Program (AFCAP), October 2014: http...cyber systems for support and operation. Today’s system certification and compliancy tracking methods are very costly, time intensive, unrealistic...and often lag behind operational and test requirements. However, with changes to policy and implementation requirements, the IT system certification

Space Particle Hazard Measurement and Modeling

DTIC Science & Technology

2007-11-30

the spacecraft and perturbations of the environment generated by the spacecraft. Koons et al. (1999) compiled and studied all spacecraft anomalies...unrealistic for D12 than for Dα0p). However, unlike the stability problems associated with the original cross diffusion terms, they are quite manageable ...E), to mono-energetic beams of charged particles of known energies which enables one, in principle , to unfold the space environment spectrum, j(E

Questionable Assumptions and Unrealistic Expectations: Reassessing the U.S.- India Relationship

DTIC Science & Technology

2010-06-16

space. It must face complicated regional dynamics shaped by thousands of years of contact between diverse populations and the legacies of colonialism... between the public and private sectors, in particular to further economic cooperation as an important strategic means for achieving U.S. goals, will...also be required. 4 This monograph seeks to highlight the asymmetry between Washington’s foreign policy assumptions and approach toward India, on

JPRS Report, Soviet Union, World Economy & International Relations, No. 10, October 1988

DTIC Science & Technology

1989-02-10

essence of the capitalist mode of production and via the decomposition of the Ricardian school, which became, according to Marx, the "vulgar apologists...the framework of the accepted limitations) if it is seen as a model reflecting quantitatively the participation or role of individual production ...From the viewpoint of a characteriza- tion of modern capitalist production the models of general balance proceeded from unrealistic premises: they

US Air Force 1989 Research Initiation Program. Volume 2.

DTIC Science & Technology

1992-06-25

University of Minnesota-Duluth Specialtv: Inorganic Chemistry Specialty: Mechanics Dr. Satish Chandra Mr. Asad Yousuf Kansas State University Savannah...the Study Van der Waals forces in capillary tubes have previously been calculated by Philip (1977b]. His study was based on the Hamaker theory, which...important in condensed media, are not taken into account by the Hamaker theory. Calculations using on the Hamaker theory are often based on an unrealistic

INVESTIGATION OF SYSTEMATIC EFFECTS IN KEPLER DATA: SEASONAL VARIATIONS IN THE LIGHT CURVE OF HAT-P-7b

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Van Eylen, V.; Lindholm Nielsen, M.; Hinrup, B.

2013-09-10

With years of Kepler data currently available, the measurement of variations in planetary transit depths over time can now be attempted. To do so, it is of primary importance to understand which systematic effects may affect the measurement of transits. We aim to measure the stability of Kepler measurements over years of observations. We present a study of the depth of about 500 transit events of the Hot Jupiter HAT-P-7b, using 14 quarters (Q0-Q13) of data from the Kepler satellite. We find a systematic variation in the depth of the primary transit, related to quarters of data and recurring yearly.more » These seasonal variations are about 1%. Within seasons, we find no evidence for trends. We speculate that the cause of the seasonal variations could be unknown field crowding or instrumental artifacts. Our results show that care must be taken when combining transits throughout different quarters of Kepler data. Measuring the relative planetary radius of HAT-P-7b without taking these systematic effects into account leads to unrealistically low error estimates. This effect could be present in all Kepler targets. If so, relative radius measurements of all Hot Jupiters to a precision much better than 1% are unrealistic.« less

A calibration hierarchy for risk models was defined: from utopia to empirical data.

PubMed

Van Calster, Ben; Nieboer, Daan; Vergouwe, Yvonne; De Cock, Bavo; Pencina, Michael J; Steyerberg, Ewout W

2016-06-01

Calibrated risk models are vital for valid decision support. We define four levels of calibration and describe implications for model development and external validation of predictions. We present results based on simulated data sets. A common definition of calibration is "having an event rate of R% among patients with a predicted risk of R%," which we refer to as "moderate calibration." Weaker forms of calibration only require the average predicted risk (mean calibration) or the average prediction effects (weak calibration) to be correct. "Strong calibration" requires that the event rate equals the predicted risk for every covariate pattern. This implies that the model is fully correct for the validation setting. We argue that this is unrealistic: the model type may be incorrect, the linear predictor is only asymptotically unbiased, and all nonlinear and interaction effects should be correctly modeled. In addition, we prove that moderate calibration guarantees nonharmful decision making. Finally, results indicate that a flexible assessment of calibration in small validation data sets is problematic. Strong calibration is desirable for individualized decision support but unrealistic and counter productive by stimulating the development of overly complex models. Model development and external validation should focus on moderate calibration. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Beyond the competition-colonization trade-off: linking multiple trait response to disturbance characteristics.

PubMed

Seifan, Merav; Seifan, Tal; Schiffers, Katja; Jeltsch, Florian; Tielbörger, Katja

2013-02-01

Disturbances' role in shaping communities is well documented but highly disputed. We suggest replacing the overused two-trait trade-off approach with a functional group scheme, constructed from combinations of four key traits that represent four classes of species' responses to disturbances. Using model results and field observations from sites affected by two highly different disturbances, we demonstrated that popular dichotomous trade-offs are not sufficient to explain community dynamics, even if some emerge under certain conditions. Without disturbances, competition was only sufficient to predict species survival but not relative success, which required some escape mechanism (e.g., long-term dormancy). With highly predictable and large-scale disturbances, successful species showed a combination of high individual tolerance to disturbance and, more surprisingly, high competitive ability. When disturbances were less predictable, high individual tolerance and long-term seed dormancy were favored, due to higher environmental uncertainty. Our study demonstrates that theories relying on a small number of predefined trade-offs among traits (e.g., competition-colonization trade-off) may lead to unrealistic results. We suggest that the understanding of disturbance-community relationships can be significantly improved by employing sets of relevant trait assemblies instead of the currently common approach in which trade-offs are assumed in advance.

Inferring the shallow phylogeny of true salamanders (Salamandra) by multiple phylogenomic approaches.

PubMed

Rodríguez, Ariel; Burgon, James D; Lyra, Mariana; Irisarri, Iker; Baurain, Denis; Blaustein, Leon; Göçmen, Bayram; Künzel, Sven; Mable, Barbara K; Nolte, Arne W; Veith, Michael; Steinfartz, Sebastian; Elmer, Kathryn R; Philippe, Hervé; Vences, Miguel

2017-10-01

The rise of high-throughput sequencing techniques provides the unprecedented opportunity to analyse controversial phylogenetic relationships in great depth, but also introduces a risk of being misinterpreted by high node support values influenced by unevenly distributed missing data or unrealistic model assumptions. Here, we use three largely independent phylogenomic data sets to reconstruct the controversial phylogeny of true salamanders of the genus Salamandra, a group of amphibians providing an intriguing model to study the evolution of aposematism and viviparity. For all six species of the genus Salamandra, and two outgroup species from its sister genus Lyciasalamandra, we used RNA sequencing (RNAseq) and restriction site associated DNA sequencing (RADseq) to obtain data for: (1) 3070 nuclear protein-coding genes from RNAseq; (2) 7440 loci obtained by RADseq; and (3) full mitochondrial genomes. The RNAseq and RADseq data sets retrieved fully congruent topologies when each of them was analyzed in a concatenation approach, with high support for: (1) S. infraimmaculata being sister group to all other Salamandra species; (2) S. algira being sister to S. salamandra; (3) these two species being the sister group to a clade containing S. atra, S. corsica and S. lanzai; and (4) the alpine species S. atra and S. lanzai being sister taxa. The phylogeny inferred from the mitochondrial genome sequences differed from these results, most notably by strongly supporting a clade containing S. atra and S. corsica as sister taxa. A different placement of S. corsica was also retrieved when analysing the RNAseq and RADseq data under species tree approaches. Closer examination of gene trees derived from RNAseq revealed that only a low number of them supported each of the alternative placements of S. atra. Furthermore, gene jackknife support for the S. atra - S. lanzai node stabilized only with very large concatenated data sets. The phylogeny of true salamanders thus provides a compelling example of how classical node support metrics such as bootstrap and Bayesian posterior probability can provide high confidence values in a phylogenomic topology even if the phylogenetic signal for some nodes is spurious, highlighting the importance of complementary approaches such as gene jackknifing. Yet, the general congruence among the topologies recovered from the RNAseq and RADseq data sets increases our confidence in the results, and validates the use of phylotranscriptomic approaches for reconstructing shallow relationships among closely related taxa. We hypothesize that the evolution of Salamandra has been characterized by episodes of introgressive hybridization, which would explain the difficulties of fully reconstructing their evolutionary relationships. Copyright © 2017. Published by Elsevier Inc.

Diagenetic alteration of biogenic silica oxygen isotope values: implications for use as a paleoenvironmental proxy

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dodd, J. P.; Abbott, T.; Scherer, R. P.

2016-12-01

Oxygen isotope (δ18O) values of biogenic silica have enormous potential as paleoenvironmental proxies in marine and non-marine environments. Isotopic exchange and phase changes (opal-A to opal-CT) can overprint the initial δ18O values, but these diagenetic processes can also provide additional paleoenvironmental information. The timing and magnitude of isotopic exchange reactions are difficult to constrain in natural environments; however, experimental results of diatom aging indicate that changes in the δ18O values of the biogenic silca occur coincident with dehydroxylation of the silica prior to opal-CT formation. Diagenetic alteration of biogenic silica dramatically changes our interpretation of silica isotope data from sedimentary records. For example, diatom δ18O values from a Pliocene ( 4.68 to 3.44 Ma) age marine sediment core (AND-1B) from the Ross Sea, Antarctica range from +28 to +36‰. The silica-water fractionation relationship for marine diatoms of Juillet-Leclerc and Labeyrie (1987) and a standard marine δ18O water value of 0‰ results in unrealistic sea surface temperatures of >20°C. Conversely, if water temperatures of 0 to 10°C are used, the resulting water δ18O values range from -8 to -16‰. A plausible alternate scenario is that the diatom δ18O values are recording sediment pore-water conditions. Pore waters in the AND-2A core had δ18O values of -11‰, possibly as a result cryogenic brine formation (Frank et al., 2010). These low δ18O values are in close agreement with our calculated δ18O water values. Despite diagenetic overprinting of the diatom δ18O values, there is still good agreement between the measured diatom δ18O values and the stacked benthic δ18O record (Lisiecki and Raymo, 2005); biogenic silica δ18O values in the AND-1B core likely record the composition of shallow sediment pore water and cryogenic brine formation. The agreement between our δ18O record and the benthic stack δ18O values suggests that brine formation in the early Pliocene Ross Sea may be driven by regional and global scale climate processes. Sedimentary diatoms most likely represent a combination of growth and diagenetic environments, and the δ18O value of diagenetic water needs to be addressed when reconstructing paleoceanographic and paleoenvironmental conditions.

Optical wireless link between a nanoscale antenna and a transducing rectenna.

PubMed

Dasgupta, Arindam; Mennemanteuil, Marie-Maxime; Buret, Mickaël; Cazier, Nicolas; Colas-des-Francs, Gérard; Bouhelier, Alexandre

2018-05-18

Initiated as a cable-replacement solution, short-range wireless power transfer has rapidly become ubiquitous in the development of modern high-data throughput networking in centimeter to meter accessibility range. Wireless technology is now penetrating a higher level of system integration for chip-to-chip and on-chip radiofrequency interconnects. However, standard CMOS integrated millimeter-wave antennas have typical size commensurable with the operating wavelength, and are thus an unrealistic solution for downsizing transmitters and receivers to the micrometer and nanometer scale. Herein, we demonstrate a light-in and electrical signal-out, on-chip wireless near-infrared link between a 220 nm optical antenna and a sub-nanometer rectifying antenna converting the transmitted optical energy into direct electrical current. The co-integration of subwavelength optical functional devices with electronic transduction offers a disruptive solution to interface photons and electrons at the nanoscale for on-chip wireless optical interconnects.

The isotopic and chemical evolution of planets: Mars as a missing link

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Depaolo, D. J.

1988-01-01

The study of planetary bodies has advanced to a stage where it is possible to contemplate general models for the chemical and physical evolution of planetary interiors, which might be referred to as UMPES (Unified Models of Planetary Evolution and Structure). UMPES would be able to predict the internal evolution and structure of a planet given certain input parameters such as mass, distance from the sun, and a time scale for accretion. Such models are highly dependent on natural observations because the basic material properties of planetary interiors, and the processes that take place during the evolution of planets are imperfectly understood. The idea of UMPES was particularly unrealistic when the only information available was from the earth. However, advances have been made in the understanding of the general aspects of planetary evolution now that there is geochemical and petrological data available for the moon and for meteorites.

Learning Supervised Topic Models for Classification and Regression from Crowds.

PubMed

Rodrigues, Filipe; Lourenco, Mariana; Ribeiro, Bernardete; Pereira, Francisco C

2017-12-01

The growing need to analyze large collections of documents has led to great developments in topic modeling. Since documents are frequently associated with other related variables, such as labels or ratings, much interest has been placed on supervised topic models. However, the nature of most annotation tasks, prone to ambiguity and noise, often with high volumes of documents, deem learning under a single-annotator assumption unrealistic or unpractical for most real-world applications. In this article, we propose two supervised topic models, one for classification and another for regression problems, which account for the heterogeneity and biases among different annotators that are encountered in practice when learning from crowds. We develop an efficient stochastic variational inference algorithm that is able to scale to very large datasets, and we empirically demonstrate the advantages of the proposed model over state-of-the-art approaches.

Factors that impact expectations before total knee arthroplasty.

PubMed

Hepinstall, Matthew S; Rutledge, John R; Bornstein, Lindsey J; Mazumdar, Madhu; Westrich, Geoffrey H

2011-09-01

This study examined the effect of patient attributes on expectations before total knee arthroplasty (TKA). A total of 1943 patients completed an Expectations Survey before TKA. Demographics, surgical history, baseline Medical Outcomes Study Short Form 36 (SF-36) score, Knee injury and Osteoarthritis Outcome Score (KOOS), and Lower Extremity Activity Scale score were obtained. On univariate analysis, expectations (mean score, 77.6) correlated with SF-36 General Health, age, SF-36 Vitality, KOOS Quality-of-Life, and Lower Extremity Activity Scale. Living alone and history of joint arthroplasty were associated with significantly lower expectations, whereas male sex and white race were associated with higher expectations. On multivariate regression analysis, age, living situation, history of joint arthroplasty, SF-36 General Health, and KOOS Quality-of-Life remained significant predictors of expectations. Our results suggest that high, possibly unrealistic, expectations of TKA are common and should be moderated to maintain patient satisfaction. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Managing distribution changes in time series prediction

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Matias, J. M.; Gonzalez-Manteiga, W.; Taboada, J.; Ordonez, C.

2006-07-01

When a problem is modeled statistically, a single distribution model is usually postulated that is assumed to be valid for the entire space. Nonetheless, this practice may be somewhat unrealistic in certain application areas, in which the conditions of the process that generates the data may change; as far as we are aware, however, no techniques have been developed to tackle this problem.This article proposes a technique for modeling and predicting this change in time series with a view to improving estimates and predictions. The technique is applied, among other models, to the hypernormal distribution recently proposed. When tested on real data from a range of stock market indices the technique produces better results that when a single distribution model is assumed to be valid for the entire period of time studied.Moreover, when a global model is postulated, it is highly recommended to select the hypernormal distribution parameter in the same likelihood maximization process.

A Scheme for Targeting Optical SETI Observations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shostak, Seth

2004-06-01

In optical SETI (OSETI) experiments, it is generally assumed that signals will be deliberate, narrowly targeted beacons sent by extraterrestrial societies to large numbers of candidate star systems. If this is so, then it may be unrealistic to expect a high duty cycle for the received signal. Ergo, an advantage accrues to any OSETI scheme that realistically suggests where and when to search. In this paper, we elaborate a proposal (Castellano, Doyle, &McIntosh 2000) for selecting regions of sky for intensive optical SETI monitoring based on characteristics of our solar system that would be visible at great distance. This can enormously lessen the amount of sky that needs to be searched. In addition, this is an attractive approach for the transmitting society because it both increases the chances of reception and provides a large reduction in energy required. With good astrometric information, the transmitter need be no more powerful than an automobile tail light.

The growth of palliative care in the United States.

PubMed

Hughes, Mark T; Smith, Thomas J

2014-01-01

Palliative care has been one of the most rapidly growing fields of health care in the United States in the past decade. The benefits of palliative care have now been shown in multiple clinical trials, with increased patient and provider satisfaction, equal or better symptom control, more discernment of and honoring choices about place of death, fewer and less intensive hospital admissions in the last month of life, less anxiety and depression, less caregiver distress, and cost savings. The cost savings come from cost avoidance, or movement of a patient from a high cost setting to a lower cost setting. Barriers to expanded use include physician resistance, unrealistic expectations of patients and families, and lack of workforce. The future of palliative care includes more penetration into other fields such as nephrology, neurology, and surgery; further discernment of the most effective and cost-effective models; and establishment of more outpatient services.

High-resolution, real-time mapping of surface soil moisture at the field scale using ground penetrating radar

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lambot, S.; Minet, J.; Slob, E.; Vereecken, H.; Vanclooster, M.

2008-12-01

Measuring soil surface water content is essential in hydrology and agriculture as this variable controls important key processes of the hydrological cycle such as infiltration, runoff, evaporation, and energy exchanges between the earth and the atmosphere. We present a ground-penetrating radar (GPR) method for automated, high-resolution, real-time mapping of soil surface dielectric permittivity and correlated water content at the field scale. Field scale characterization and monitoring is not only necessary for field scale management applications, but also for unravelling upscaling issues in hydrology and bridging the scale gap between local measurements and remote sensing. In particular, such methods are necessary to validate and improve remote sensing data products. The radar system consists of a vector network analyzer combined with an off-ground, ultra-wideband monostatic horn antenna, thereby setting up a continuous-wave steeped-frequency GPR. Radar signal analysis is based on three-dimensional electromagnetic inverse modelling. The forward model accounts for all antenna effects, antenna-soil interactions, and wave propagation in three-dimensional multilayered media. A fast procedure was developed to evaluate the involved Green's function, resulting from a singular, complex integral. Radar data inversion is focused on the surface reflection in the time domain. The method presents considerable advantages compared to the current surface characterization methods using GPR, namely, the ground wave and common reflection methods. Theoretical analyses were performed, dealing with the effects of electric conductivity on the surface reflection when non-negligible, and on near-surface layering, which may lead to unrealistic values for the surface dielectric permittivity if not properly accounted for. Inversion strategies are proposed. In particular the combination of GPR with electromagnetic induction data appears to be promising to deal with highly conductive soils. Finally, we present laboratory and field results where the GPR measurements are compared to ground-truth gravimetric and time domain reflectometry data. An example of high resolution surface soil moisture map is presented and discussed. The proposed method appears to be an appropriate solution in any applications where soil surface water content must be known at the field scale.

The POW Problem in Russia: Justification for Allied Intervention, 1918-1920

DTIC Science & Technology

1977-06-10

Austrians not Germans. 32 Concerning Japan’s reaction to Allied probes on interventionPresident Wilson told his Secretary of State to inform the Japanese...and punishments would be meted out according to their reactions . 3 7 The Germans were very concerned about Bolshevik propagandizing in the prison camps...This hope was most unrealistic based upon Lenin’s reaction to the Japanese landing at Vladivostok. The investigators in Siberia provided good

Male body image in Taiwan versus the West: Yanggang Zhiqi meets the Adonis complex.

PubMed

Yang, Chi-Fu Jeffrey; Gray, Peter; Pope, Harrison G

2005-02-01

Body image disorders appear to be more prevalent in Western than non-Western men. Previous studies by the authors have shown that young Western men display unrealistic body ideals and that Western advertising seems to place an increasing value on the male body. The authors hypothesized that Taiwanese men would exhibit less dissatisfaction with their bodies than Western men and that Taiwanese advertising would place less value on the male body than Western media. The authors administered a computerized test of body image to 55 heterosexual men in Taiwan and compared the results to those previously obtained in an identical study in the United States and Europe. Second, they counted the number of undressed male and female models in American versus Taiwanese women's magazine advertisements. In the body image study, the Taiwanese men exhibited significantly less body dissatisfaction than their Western counterparts. In the magazine study, American magazine advertisements portrayed undressed Western men frequently, but Taiwanese magazines portrayed undressed Asian men rarely. Taiwan appears less preoccupied with male body image than Western societies. This difference may reflect 1) Western traditions emphasizing muscularity and fitness as a measure of masculinity, 2) increasing exposure of Western men to muscular male bodies in media images, and 3) greater decline in traditional male roles in the West, leading to greater emphasis on the body as a measure of masculinity. These factors may explain why body dysmorphic disorder and anabolic steroid abuse are more serious problems in the West than in Taiwan.

Nonlinear reflection of shock shear waves in soft elastic media.

PubMed

Pinton, Gianmarco; Coulouvrat, François; Gennisson, Jean-Luc; Tanter, Mickaël

2010-02-01

For fluids, the theoretical investigation of shock wave reflection has a good agreement with experiments when the incident shock Mach number is large. But when it is small, theory predicts that Mach reflections are physically unrealistic, which contradicts experimental evidence. This von Neumann paradox is investigated for shear shock waves in soft elastic solids with theory and simulations. The nonlinear elastic wave equation is approximated by a paraxial wave equation with a cubic nonlinear term. This equation is solved numerically with finite differences and the Godunov scheme. Three reflection regimes are observed. Theory is developed for shock propagation by applying the Rankine-Hugoniot relations and entropic constraints. A characteristic parameter relating diffraction and non-linearity is introduced and its theoretical values are shown to match numerical observations. The numerical solution is then applied to von Neumann reflection, where curved reflected and Mach shocks are observed. Finally, the case of weak von Neumann reflection, where there is no reflected shock, is examined. The smooth but non-monotonic transition between these three reflection regimes, from linear Snell-Descartes to perfect grazing case, provides a solution to the acoustical von Neumann paradox for the shear wave equation. This transition is similar to the quadratic non-linearity in fluids.

Risk assessment in mental health care: values and costs.

PubMed

Szmukler, George; Rose, Nikolas

2013-01-01

Risk assessment has assumed increasing salience in mental health care in a number of countries. The frequency of serious violent incidents perpetrated by people with a mental illness is an insufficient explanation. Understandings of mental illness and of the role of those charged with their care (or control) play a key role. "Moral outrage", associated with an implied culpability when certain types of tragedy occur, is very significant. This leads to tensions concerning the role of post-incident inquiries, and contributes to a flawed conception of what such inquiries can offer. At the same time, understanding of probability and prediction is generally very poor, among both professionals and the public. Unrealistic expectations for risk assessment and management in general psychiatric practice carry a variety of significant costs, taking a number forms, to those with a mental illness, to mental health professionals and to services. Especially important are changes in professional practice and accountabilities that are significantly divorced from traditional practice, implications for trust in patient-clinician relationships and the organisations in which mental health professionals work, and practices that often breach the ethical principle of justice (or fairness) and heighten discrimination against people with mental illness. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Global optimization for motion estimation with applications to ultrasound videos of carotid artery plaques

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Murillo, Sergio; Pattichis, Marios; Soliz, Peter; Barriga, Simon; Loizou, C. P.; Pattichis, C. S.

2010-03-01

Motion estimation from digital video is an ill-posed problem that requires a regularization approach. Regularization introduces a smoothness constraint that can reduce the resolution of the velocity estimates. The problem is further complicated for ultrasound videos (US), where speckle noise levels can be significant. Motion estimation using optical flow models requires the modification of several parameters to satisfy the optical flow constraint as well as the level of imposed smoothness. Furthermore, except in simulations or mostly unrealistic cases, there is no ground truth to use for validating the velocity estimates. This problem is present in all real video sequences that are used as input to motion estimation algorithms. It is also an open problem in biomedical applications like motion analysis of US of carotid artery (CA) plaques. In this paper, we study the problem of obtaining reliable ultrasound video motion estimates for atherosclerotic plaques for use in clinical diagnosis. A global optimization framework for motion parameter optimization is presented. This framework uses actual carotid artery motions to provide optimal parameter values for a variety of motions and is tested on ten different US videos using two different motion estimation techniques.

Cooperation in Harsh Environments and the Emergence of Spatial Patterns.

PubMed

Smaldino, Paul E

2013-11-01

This paper concerns the confluence of two important areas of research in mathematical biology: spatial pattern formation and cooperative dilemmas. Mechanisms through which social organisms form spatial patterns are not fully understood. Prior work connecting cooperation and pattern formation has often included unrealistic assumptions that shed doubt on the applicability of those models toward understanding real biological patterns. I investigated a more biologically realistic model of cooperation among social actors. The environment is harsh, so that interactions with cooperators are strictly needed to survive. Harshness is implemented via a constant energy deduction. I show that this model can generate spatial patterns similar to those seen in many naturally-occuring systems. Moreover, for each payoff matrix there is an associated critical value of the energy deduction that separates two distinct dynamical processes. In low-harshness environments, the growth of cooperator clusters is impeded by defectors, but these clusters gradually expand to form dense dendritic patterns. In very harsh environments, cooperators expand rapidly but defectors can subsequently make inroads to form reticulated patterns. The resulting web-like patterns are reminiscent of transportation networks observed in slime mold colonies and other biological systems.

Mercury's capture into the 3/2 spin-orbit resonance as a result of its chaotic dynamics.

PubMed

Correia, Alexandre C M; Laskar, Jacques

2004-06-24

Mercury is locked into a 3/2 spin-orbit resonance where it rotates three times on its axis for every two orbits around the sun. The stability of this equilibrium state is well established, but our understanding of how this state initially arose remains unsatisfactory. Unless one uses an unrealistic tidal model with constant torques (which cannot account for the observed damping of the libration of the planet) the computed probability of capture into 3/2 resonance is very low (about 7 per cent). This led to the proposal that core-mantle friction may have increased the capture probability, but such a process requires very specific values of the core viscosity. Here we show that the chaotic evolution of Mercury's orbit can drive its eccentricity beyond 0.325 during the planet's history, which very efficiently leads to its capture into the 3/2 resonance. In our numerical integrations of 1,000 orbits of Mercury over 4 Gyr, capture into the 3/2 spin-orbit resonant state was the most probable final outcome of the planet's evolution, occurring 55.4 per cent of the time.

The Quantum Logical Challenge: Peter Mittelstaedt's Contributions to Logic and Philosophy of Science

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Beltrametti, E.; Dalla Chiara, M. L.; Giuntini, R.

2017-12-01

Peter Mittelstaedt's contributions to quantum logic and to the foundational problems of quantum theory have significantly realized the most authentic spirit of the International Quantum Structures Association: an original research about hard technical problems, which are often "entangled" with the emergence of important changes in our general world-conceptions. During a time where both the logical and the physical community often showed a skeptical attitude towards Birkhoff and von Neumann's quantum logic, Mittelstaedt brought into light the deeply innovating features of a quantum logical thinking that allows us to overcome some strong and unrealistic assumptions of classical logical arguments. Later on his intense research on the unsharp approach to quantum theory and to the measurement problem stimulated the increasing interest for unsharp forms of quantum logic, creating a fruitful interaction between the work of quantum logicians and of many-valued logicians. Mittelstaedt's general views about quantum logic and quantum theory seem to be inspired by a conjecture that is today more and more confirmed: there is something universal in the quantum theoretic formalism that goes beyond the limits of microphysics, giving rise to interesting applications to a number of different fields.

Fault and event tree analyses for process systems risk analysis: uncertainty handling formulations.

PubMed

Ferdous, Refaul; Khan, Faisal; Sadiq, Rehan; Amyotte, Paul; Veitch, Brian

2011-01-01

Quantitative risk analysis (QRA) is a systematic approach for evaluating likelihood, consequences, and risk of adverse events. QRA based on event (ETA) and fault tree analyses (FTA) employs two basic assumptions. The first assumption is related to likelihood values of input events, and the second assumption is regarding interdependence among the events (for ETA) or basic events (for FTA). Traditionally, FTA and ETA both use crisp probabilities; however, to deal with uncertainties, the probability distributions of input event likelihoods are assumed. These probability distributions are often hard to come by and even if available, they are subject to incompleteness (partial ignorance) and imprecision. Furthermore, both FTA and ETA assume that events (or basic events) are independent. In practice, these two assumptions are often unrealistic. This article focuses on handling uncertainty in a QRA framework of a process system. Fuzzy set theory and evidence theory are used to describe the uncertainties in the input event likelihoods. A method based on a dependency coefficient is used to express interdependencies of events (or basic events) in ETA and FTA. To demonstrate the approach, two case studies are discussed. © 2010 Society for Risk Analysis.

Comparison of two trajectory based models for locating particle sources for two rural New York sites

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhou, Liming; Hopke, Philip K.; Liu, Wei

Two back trajectory-based statistical models, simplified quantitative transport bias analysis and residence-time weighted concentrations (RTWC) have been compared for their capabilities of identifying likely locations of source emissions contributing to observed particle concentrations at Potsdam and Stockton, New York. Quantitative transport bias analysis (QTBA) attempts to take into account the distribution of concentrations around the directions of the back trajectories. In full QTBA approach, deposition processes (wet and dry) are also considered. Simplified QTBA omits the consideration of deposition. It is best used with multiple site data. Similarly the RTWC approach uses concentrations measured at different sites along with the back trajectories to distribute the concentration contributions across the spatial domain of the trajectories. In this study, these models are used in combination with the source contribution values obtained by the previous positive matrix factorization analysis of particle composition data from Potsdam and Stockton. The six common sources for the two sites, sulfate, soil, zinc smelter, nitrate, wood smoke and copper smelter were analyzed. The results of the two methods are consistent and locate large and clearly defined sources well. RTWC approach can find more minor sources but may also give unrealistic estimations of the source locations.

Approaches in highly parameterized inversion: bgaPEST, a Bayesian geostatistical approach implementation with PEST: documentation and instructions

USGS Publications Warehouse

Fienen, Michael N.; D'Oria, Marco; Doherty, John E.; Hunt, Randall J.

2013-01-01

The application bgaPEST is a highly parameterized inversion software package implementing the Bayesian Geostatistical Approach in a framework compatible with the parameter estimation suite PEST. Highly parameterized inversion refers to cases in which parameters are distributed in space or time and are correlated with one another. The Bayesian aspect of bgaPEST is related to Bayesian probability theory in which prior information about parameters is formally revised on the basis of the calibration dataset used for the inversion. Conceptually, this approach formalizes the conditionality of estimated parameters on the specific data and model available. The geostatistical component of the method refers to the way in which prior information about the parameters is used. A geostatistical autocorrelation function is used to enforce structure on the parameters to avoid overfitting and unrealistic results. Bayesian Geostatistical Approach is designed to provide the smoothest solution that is consistent with the data. Optionally, users can specify a level of fit or estimate a balance between fit and model complexity informed by the data. Groundwater and surface-water applications are used as examples in this text, but the possible uses of bgaPEST extend to any distributed parameter applications.

Don't aim too high for your kids: Parental overaspiration undermines students' learning in mathematics.

PubMed

Murayama, Kou; Pekrun, Reinhard; Suzuki, Masayuki; Marsh, Herbert W; Lichtenfeld, Stephanie

2016-11-01

Previous research has suggested that parents' aspirations for their children's academic attainment can have a positive influence on children's actual academic performance. Possible negative effects of parental overaspiration, however, have found little attention in the psychological literature. Employing a dual-change score model with longitudinal data from a representative sample of German school children and their parents (N = 3,530; Grades 5 to 10), we showed that parental aspiration and children's mathematical achievement were linked by positive reciprocal relations over time. Importantly, we also found that parental aspiration that exceeded their expectation (i.e., overaspiration) had negative reciprocal relations with children's mathematical achievement. These results were fairly robust after controlling for a variety of demographic and cognitive variables such as children's gender, age, intelligence, school type, and family socioeconomic status. The results were also replicated with an independent sample of U.S. parents and their children. These findings suggest that unrealistically high parental aspiration can be detrimental for children's achievement. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2016 APA, all rights reserved).

Unrealistic Hope and Unnecessary Fear: Exploring How Sensationalistic News Stories Influence Health Behavior Motivation.

PubMed

Nabi, Robin L; Prestin, Abby

2016-09-01

In light of the inherent conflict between the nature of science (slow, subject to correction) and the nature of news (immediate, dramatic, novel), this study examines the effect of emotional health news coverage on intentions to engage in protective health behaviors. One hundred seventy-seven students read news stories designed to evoke either fear or hope about human papillomavirus (HPV) followed by different levels of response efficacy information regarding an impending HPV vaccine. Results indicated no main effects for emotion frame or response efficacy, but a significant interaction suggested that emotionally-consistent presentations (fear/low efficacy; hope/high efficacy) boosted intentions to engage in protective actions relative to emotionally-inconsistent, sensationalized presentations (fear/high efficacy, hope/low efficacy). Consistent with the emotion-as-frame perspective, this effect was moderated by perceived knowledge about HPV prevention. Effects of the sensationalized story constructions on trust in health news were also evidenced. Implications for the role of emotional health news coverage in priming prior knowledge about preventative health behaviors, along with future research directions, are discussed.

Arbitrary cross-section SEM-cathodoluminescence imaging of growth sectors and local carrier concentrations within micro-sampled semiconductor nanorods

PubMed Central

Watanabe, Kentaro; Nagata, Takahiro; Oh, Seungjun; Wakayama, Yutaka; Sekiguchi, Takashi; Volk, János; Nakamura, Yoshiaki

2016-01-01

Future one-dimensional electronics require single-crystalline semiconductor free-standing nanorods grown with uniform electrical properties. However, this is currently unrealistic as each crystallographic plane of a nanorod grows at unique incorporation rates of environmental dopants, which forms axial and lateral growth sectors with different carrier concentrations. Here we propose a series of techniques that micro-sample a free-standing nanorod of interest, fabricate its arbitrary cross-sections by controlling focused ion beam incidence orientation, and visualize its internal carrier concentration map. ZnO nanorods are grown by selective area homoepitaxy in precursor aqueous solution, each of which has a (0001):+c top-plane and six {1–100}:m side-planes. Near-band-edge cathodoluminescence nanospectroscopy evaluates carrier concentration map within a nanorod at high spatial resolution (60 nm) and high sensitivity. It also visualizes +c and m growth sectors at arbitrary nanorod cross-section and history of local transient growth events within each growth sector. Our technique paves the way for well-defined bottom-up nanoelectronics. PMID:26881966

TOPLA: A New Empirical Representation of the F-Region Topside and Plasmasphere for the International Reference Ionosphere

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Bilitza, D.; Reinisch, B.; Gallagher, D.; Huang, X.; Truhlik, V.; Nsumei, P.

2007-01-01

The goal of this LWS tools effort is the development of a new data-based F-region TOpside and PLAsmasphere (TOPLA) model for the electron density (Ne) and temperature (Te) for inclusion in the International Reference Ionosphere (IRI) model using newly available satellite data and models for these regions. The IRI model is the de facto international standard for specification of ionospheric parameters and is currently being considered as an ISO Technical Specification for the ionosphere. Our effort is directed towards improving the topside part of the model and extending it into the plasmasphere. Specifically we are planning to overcome the following shortcomings of the current IRI topside model: (I) overestimation of densities above 700 km by a factor of 2 and more, (3) unrealistically steep density profiles at high latitudes during very high solar activities, (4) no solar cycle variations and no semi-annual variations for the electron temperature, (5) discontinuities or unphysical gradients when merging with plasmaspheric models. We will report on first accomplishments and on the current status of the project.

The Current State of Drug Discovery and a Potential Role for NMR Metabolomics

PubMed Central

2015-01-01

The pharmaceutical industry has significantly contributed to improving human health. Drugs have been attributed to both increasing life expectancy and decreasing health care costs. Unfortunately, there has been a recent decline in the creativity and productivity of the pharmaceutical industry. This is a complex issue with many contributing factors resulting from the numerous mergers, increase in out-sourcing, and the heavy dependency on high-throughput screening (HTS). While a simple solution to such a complex problem is unrealistic and highly unlikely, the inclusion of metabolomics as a routine component of the drug discovery process may provide some solutions to these problems. Specifically, as the binding affinity of a chemical lead is evolved during the iterative structure-based drug design process, metabolomics can provide feedback on the selectivity and the in vivo mechanism of action. Similarly, metabolomics can be used to evaluate and validate HTS leads. In effect, metabolomics can be used to eliminate compounds with potential efficacy and side effect problems while prioritizing well-behaved leads with druglike characteristics. PMID:24588729

NOx emission estimates during the 2014 Youth Olympic Games in Nanjing

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ding, J.; van der A, R. J.; Mijling, B.; Levelt, P. F.; Hao, N.

2015-08-01

The Nanjing Government applied temporary environmental regulations to guarantee good air quality during the Youth Olympic Games (YOG) in 2014. We study the effect of those regulations by applying the emission estimate algorithm DECSO (Daily Emission estimates Constrained by Satellite Observations) to measurements of the Ozone Monitoring Instrument (OMI). We improved DECSO by updating the chemical transport model CHIMERE from v2006 to v2013 and by adding an Observation minus Forecast (OmF) criterion to filter outlying satellite retrievals due to high aerosol concentrations. The comparison of model results with both ground and satellite observations indicates that CHIMERE v2013 is better performing than CHIMERE v2006. After filtering the satellite observations with high aerosol loads that were leading to large OmF values, unrealistic jumps in the emission estimates are removed. Despite the cloudy conditions during the YOG we could still see a decrease of tropospheric NO2 column concentrations of about 32 % in the OMI observations when compared to the average NO2 columns from 2005 to 2012. The results of the improved DECSO algorithm for NOx emissions show a reduction of at least 25 % during the YOG period and afterwards. This indicates that air quality regulations taken by the local government have an effect in reducing NOx emissions. The algorithm is also able to detect an emission reduction of 10 % during the Chinese Spring Festival. This study demonstrates the capacity of the DECSO algorithm to capture the change of NOx emissions on a monthly scale. We also show that the observed NO2 columns and the derived emissions show different patterns that provide complimentary information. For example, the Nanjing smog episode in December 2013 led to a strong increase in NO2 concentrations without an increase in NOx emissions. Furthermore, DECSO gives us important information on the non-trivial seasonal relation between NOx emissions and NO2 concentrations on a local scale.

GAPPARD: a computationally efficient method of approximating gap-scale disturbance in vegetation models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Scherstjanoi, M.; Kaplan, J. O.; Thürig, E.; Lischke, H.

2013-02-01

Models of vegetation dynamics that are designed for application at spatial scales larger than individual forest gaps suffer from several limitations. Typically, either a population average approximation is used that results in unrealistic tree allometry and forest stand structure, or models have a high computational demand because they need to simulate both a series of age-based cohorts and a number of replicate patches to account for stochastic gap-scale disturbances. The detail required by the latter method increases the number of calculations by two to three orders of magnitude compared to the less realistic population average approach. In an effort to increase the efficiency of dynamic vegetation models without sacrificing realism, and to explore patterns of spatial scaling in forests, we developed a new method for simulating stand-replacing disturbances that is both accurate and 10-50x faster than approaches that use replicate patches. The GAPPARD (approximating GAP model results with a Probabilistic Approach to account for stand Replacing Disturbances) method works by postprocessing the output of deterministic, undisturbed simulations of a cohort-based vegetation model by deriving the distribution of patch ages at any point in time on the basis of a disturbance probability. With this distribution, the expected value of any output variable can be calculated from the output values of the deterministic undisturbed run at the time corresponding to the patch age. To account for temporal changes in model forcing, e.g., as a result of climate change, GAPPARD performs a series of deterministic simulations and interpolates between the results in the postprocessing step. We integrated the GAPPARD method in the forest models LPJ-GUESS and TreeM-LPJ, and evaluated these in a series of simulations along an altitudinal transect of an inner-alpine valley. With GAPPARD applied to LPJ-GUESS results were insignificantly different from the output of the original model LPJ-GUESS using 100 replicate patches, but simulation time was reduced by approximately the factor 10. Our new method is therefore highly suited rapidly approximating LPJ-GUESS results, and provides the opportunity for future studies over large spatial domains, allows easier parameterization of tree species, faster identification of areas of interesting simulation results, and comparisons with large-scale datasets and forest models.

Essential role of conformational selection in ligand binding.

PubMed

Vogt, Austin D; Pozzi, Nicola; Chen, Zhiwei; Di Cera, Enrico

2014-02-01

Two competing and mutually exclusive mechanisms of ligand recognition - conformational selection and induced fit - have dominated our interpretation of ligand binding in biological macromolecules for almost six decades. Conformational selection posits the pre-existence of multiple conformations of the macromolecule from which the ligand selects the optimal one. Induced fit, on the other hand, postulates the existence of conformational rearrangements of the original conformation into an optimal one that are induced by binding of the ligand. In the former case, conformational transitions precede the binding event; in the latter, conformational changes follow the binding step. Kineticists have used a facile criterion to distinguish between the two mechanisms based on the dependence of the rate of relaxation to equilibrium, kobs, on the ligand concentration, [L]. A value of kobs decreasing hyperbolically with [L] has been seen as diagnostic of conformational selection, while a value of kobs increasing hyperbolically with [L] has been considered diagnostic of induced fit. However, this simple conclusion is only valid under the rather unrealistic assumption of conformational transitions being much slower than binding and dissociation events. In general, induced fit only produces values of kobs that increase with [L] but conformational selection is more versatile and is associated with values of kobs that increase with, decrease with or are independent of [L]. The richer repertoire of kinetic properties of conformational selection applies to kinetic mechanisms with single or multiple saturable relaxations and explains the behavior of nearly all experimental systems reported in the literature thus far. Conformational selection is always sufficient and often necessary to account for the relaxation kinetics of ligand binding to a biological macromolecule and is therefore an essential component of any binding mechanism. On the other hand, induced fit is never necessary and only sufficient in a few cases. Therefore, the long assumed importance and preponderance of induced fit as a mechanism of ligand binding should be reconsidered. © 2013 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Using Reputation Systems and Non-Deterministic Routing to Secure Wireless Sensor Networks

PubMed Central

Moya, José M.; Vallejo, Juan Carlos; Fraga, David; Araujo, Álvaro; Villanueva, Daniel; de Goyeneche, Juan-Mariano

2009-01-01

Security in wireless sensor networks is difficult to achieve because of the resource limitations of the sensor nodes. We propose a trust-based decision framework for wireless sensor networks coupled with a non-deterministic routing protocol. Both provide a mechanism to effectively detect and confine common attacks, and, unlike previous approaches, allow bad reputation feedback to the network. This approach has been extensively simulated, obtaining good results, even for unrealistically complex attack scenarios. PMID:22412345

Analysis and Modeling of Complex Geomorphic Systems: Technique Development, Data Collection, and Application to Rangeland Terrain

DTIC Science & Technology

2008-10-01

attempts to measure the long-term distribution of stor- age time have relied unrealistic assumptions, but two recent studies suggest a new approach. As...sediment 10 age . Everitt (1968) mapped the age distribution of cottonwoods along a 34 km stretch of the Little Missouri River in North Dakota...Dietrich et al. (1982) applied Erikssons (1971) method to estimate the residence time distribution from Everitts age distribution. Somewhat mysteriously

Self-Other Differences in Perceiving Why People Eat What They Eat

PubMed Central

Sproesser, Gudrun; Klusmann, Verena; Schupp, Harald T.; Renner, Britta

2017-01-01

People often view themselves more favorably than others, displaying unrealistic optimism. In the present study, we investigated whether people perceive their reasons for eating as better than those of others. Furthermore, we investigated which mechanisms of inaccuracy might underlie a possible bias when perceiving why people eat what they eat. In Study 1, 117 participants rated the social desirability of eating motives. In Study 2, 772 participants provided information on their own and others’ motives for eating behavior. In Study 1, particularly desirable motives were eating because of hunger, health reasons, and liking. Particularly undesirable motives were eating to make a good impression, to comply with social norms, and to regulate negative affect. Study 2 revealed that for socially desirable motives, participants perceived their own motives to be stronger; for undesirable motives, the opposite pattern emerged, with others being attributed stronger motives. Moreover, the perception of others’ emotional and social motives varied with participants’ own healthy eating behavior. Since the perception of eating motives of others should be independent of one’s own behavior, this pattern of results indicates a relative inaccuracy in the perception of others’ eating motives. In conclusion, there is evidence for unrealistic optimism in eating motives. For social and emotional motives, this self-favoring view seems to be driven by a relatively inaccurate perception of others. PMID:28261140

The costs and benefits of positive illusions

PubMed Central

Makridakis, Spyros; Moleskis, Andreas

2015-01-01

Positive illusions are associated with unrealistic optimism about the future and an inflated assessment of one’s abilities. They are prevalent in normal life and are considered essential for maintaining a healthy mental state, although, there are disagreements to the extent to which people demonstrate these positive illusions and whether they are beneficial or not. But whatever the situation, it is hard to dismiss their existence and their positive and/or negative influence on human behavior and decision making in general. Prominent among illusions is that of control, that is “the tendency for people to overestimate their ability to control events.” This paper describes positive illusions, their potential benefits but also quantifies their costs in five specific fields (gambling, stock and other markets, new firms and startups, preventive medicine and wars). It is organized into three parts. First the psychological reasons giving rise to positive illusions are described and their likely harm and benefits stated. Second, their negative consequences are presented and their costs are quantified in five areas seriously affected with emphasis to those related to the illusion of control that seems to dominate those of unrealistic optimism. The costs involved are huge and serious efforts must be undertaken to understand their enormity and steps taken to avoid them in the future. Finally, there is a concluding section where the challenges related to positive illusions are noted and directions for future research are presented. PMID:26175698

The costs and benefits of positive illusions.

PubMed

Makridakis, Spyros; Moleskis, Andreas

2015-01-01

Positive illusions are associated with unrealistic optimism about the future and an inflated assessment of one's abilities. They are prevalent in normal life and are considered essential for maintaining a healthy mental state, although, there are disagreements to the extent to which people demonstrate these positive illusions and whether they are beneficial or not. But whatever the situation, it is hard to dismiss their existence and their positive and/or negative influence on human behavior and decision making in general. Prominent among illusions is that of control, that is "the tendency for people to overestimate their ability to control events." This paper describes positive illusions, their potential benefits but also quantifies their costs in five specific fields (gambling, stock and other markets, new firms and startups, preventive medicine and wars). It is organized into three parts. First the psychological reasons giving rise to positive illusions are described and their likely harm and benefits stated. Second, their negative consequences are presented and their costs are quantified in five areas seriously affected with emphasis to those related to the illusion of control that seems to dominate those of unrealistic optimism. The costs involved are huge and serious efforts must be undertaken to understand their enormity and steps taken to avoid them in the future. Finally, there is a concluding section where the challenges related to positive illusions are noted and directions for future research are presented.

[Deleterious Results of Safety Seeking Behaviours in Panic Disorder: Polydipsia and Diabetes Mellitus Type 2].

PubMed

Kurt, Emel; Karabaş, Özer; Yorguner, Neşe; Wurz, Axel; Topçuoğlu, Volkan

2016-01-01

Panic disorder is an anxiety disorder that involves recurrent panic attacks, which emerge when a harmless stimulus is interpreted as "catastrophic". In an attempt to avoid the panic attack or prevent confrontation, the patient exhibits a dysfunctional attitude and behavior, such as evasion and safety-seeking behavior (SSB). Dysfunctional behavior leads to an increase in the recurrence of panic attacks and affects the patient's life in a negative way. According to the cognitive behavioral therapy model, SSB contributes to the continuation of unrealistic beliefs (e.g. physical experiences) regarding and prevents the patient from grasping new information that may potentially contradict the unrealistic cognitions. In this paper, we present a case with a primary diagnosis of panic disorder. Interestingly, this patient developed diabetes mellitus (DM) type 2 and psychogenic polydipsia (PPD) as a consequence of his SSB. PPD is a common occurrence in patients with psychiatric disorders, especially in schizophrenia. Up to now, no case of a panic disorder with either DM or PPD has been reported in the literature. While it is accepted that major depression poses a risk for DM type 2, panic disorder may also increase this risk. Treatment of the panic disorder with cognitive behavioral therapy (CBT) resulted in improvement of PPD and DM type 2. In conclusion, the role of SSB in medical disorders accompanied by psychiatric disorders should be kept in mind when treating these patients.

What is Driving the H I Velocity Dispersion?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tamburro, D.; Rix, H.-W.; Leroy, A. K.; Mac Low, M.-M.; Walter, F.; Kennicutt, R. C.; Brinks, E.; de Blok, W. J. G.

2009-05-01

We explore what dominant physical mechanism sets the kinetic energy contained in neutral, atomic (H I) gas. Both supernova (SN) explosions and magnetorotational instability (MRI) have been proposed to drive turbulence in gas disks and we compare the H I line widths predicted from turbulence driven by these mechanisms to direct observations in 11 disk galaxies. We use high-quality maps of the H I mass surface density and line width, obtained by The H I Nearby Galaxy Survey. We show that all sample galaxies exhibit a systematic radial decline in the H I line width, which appears to be a generic property of H I disks and also implies a radial decline in kinetic energy density of H I. At a galactocentric radius of r 25—often comparable to the extent of significant star formation—there is a characteristic value of the H I velocity dispersion of 10 ± 2 km s-1. Inside this radius, galaxies show H I line widths well above the thermal value (corresponding to ~8 km s-1) expected from a warm H I component, implying that turbulence drivers must be responsible for maintaining this line width. Therefore, we compare maps of H I kinetic energy to maps of the star formation rate (SFR)—a proxy for the SN rate—and to predictions for energy generated by MRI. We find a positive correlation between kinetic energy of H I and SFR; this correlation also holds at fixed Σ_{H I}, as expected if SNe were driving turbulence. For a given turbulence dissipation timescale, we can estimate the energy input required to maintain the observed kinetic energy. The SN rate implied by the observed recent SFR is sufficient to maintain the observed velocity dispersion, if the SN feedback efficiency is at least epsilonSN sime 0.1 × (107 yr/τ D ), assuming τ D sime 107 yr for the turbulence dissipation timescale. Beyond r 25, this efficiency would have to increase to unrealistic values, epsilon gsim 1, suggesting that mechanical energy input from young stellar populations does not supply most kinetic energy in outer disks. On the other hand, both thermal broadening and turbulence driven by MRI can plausibly produce the velocity dispersions and kinetic energies that we observe in this regime (gsimr 25).

SIMULATED HUMAN ERROR PROBABILITY AND ITS APPLICATION TO DYNAMIC HUMAN FAILURE EVENTS

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Herberger, Sarah M.; Boring, Ronald L.

Abstract Objectives: Human reliability analysis (HRA) methods typically analyze human failure events (HFEs) at the overall task level. For dynamic HRA, it is important to model human activities at the subtask level. There exists a disconnect between dynamic subtask level and static task level that presents issues when modeling dynamic scenarios. For example, the SPAR-H method is typically used to calculate the human error probability (HEP) at the task level. As demonstrated in this paper, quantification in SPAR-H does not translate to the subtask level. Methods: Two different discrete distributions were generated for each SPAR-H Performance Shaping Factor (PSF) tomore » define the frequency of PSF levels. The first distribution was a uniform, or uninformed distribution that assumed the frequency of each PSF level was equally likely. The second non-continuous distribution took the frequency of PSF level as identified from an assessment of the HERA database. These two different approaches were created to identify the resulting distribution of the HEP. The resulting HEP that appears closer to the known distribution, a log-normal centered on 1E-3, is the more desirable. Each approach then has median, average and maximum HFE calculations applied. To calculate these three values, three events, A, B and C are generated from the PSF level frequencies comprised of subtasks. The median HFE selects the median PSF level from each PSF and calculates HEP. The average HFE takes the mean PSF level, and the maximum takes the maximum PSF level. The same data set of subtask HEPs yields starkly different HEPs when aggregated to the HFE level in SPAR-H. Results: Assuming that each PSF level in each HFE is equally likely creates an unrealistic distribution of the HEP that is centered at 1. Next the observed frequency of PSF levels was applied with the resulting HEP behaving log-normally with a majority of the values under 2.5% HEP. The median, average and maximum HFE calculations did yield different answers for the HFE. The HFE maximum grossly over estimates the HFE, while the HFE distribution occurs less than HFE median, and greater than HFE average. Conclusions: Dynamic task modeling can be perused through the framework of SPAR-H. Identification of distributions associated with each PSF needs to be defined, and may change depending upon the scenario. However it is very unlikely that each PSF level is equally likely as the resulting HEP distribution is strongly centered at 100%, which is unrealistic. Other distributions may need to be identified for PSFs, to facilitate the transition to dynamic task modeling. Additionally discrete distributions need to be exchanged for continuous so that simulations for the HFE can further advance. This paper provides a method to explore dynamic subtask to task translation and provides examples of the process using the SPAR-H method.« less

An optimal contract approach to hospital financing.

PubMed

Boadway, Robin; Marchand, Maurice; Sato, Motohiro

2004-01-01

Existing models of hospital financing advocate mixed schemes which include both lump-sum and cost-based payments. The doctor is generally the unique decision maker, which is unrealistic in a hospital setting where both managers and doctors are involved. This paper develops a model in which managers and doctors are responsible for different decisions within the hospital. In this model, public authorities who provide the financing, hospital managers who allocate resources within the hospital, and doctors who assign patients to either a low-tech or a high-tech therapy have information of increasing quality on the casemix of patients. The public authorities sign with hospital managers contracts specifying some lump-sum financing and some size of a high-tech equipment. In turn, managers, who know the broad mix of patients in the hospital, sign with hospital doctors contracts that specify the non-medical resources allocated to this facility as well as some remuneration. Doctors, who know each patient's illness severity, select the patients to be treated by the high-tech facility, and receive from public authorities some fee-for-service payment that is differentiated according to the low- or high-tech treatment used for curing their patients. What emerges is a two-stage agency problem in which contracts are designed to elicit information in the most efficient way.

CKow -- A More Transparent and Reliable Model for Chemical Transfer to Meat and Milk

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Rosenbaum, Ralph K.; McKone, Thomas E.; Jolliet, Olivier

The objective of this study is to increase the understanding and transparency of chemical biotransfer modeling into meat and milk and explicitly confront the uncertainties in exposure assessments of chemicals that require such estimates. In cumulative exposure assessments that include food pathways, much of the overall uncertainty is attributable to the estimation of transfer into biota and through food webs. Currently, the most commonly used meat and milk-biotransfer models date back two decades and, in spite of their widespread use in multimedia exposure models few attempts have been made to advance or improve the outdated and highly uncertain Kow regressionsmore » used in these models. Furthermore, in the range of Kow where meat and milk become the dominant human exposure pathways, these models often provide unrealistic rates and do not reflect properly the transfer dynamics. To address these issues, we developed a dynamic three-compartment cow model (called CKow), distinguishing lactating and non-lactating cows. For chemicals without available overall removal rates in the cow, a correlation is derived from measured values reported in the literature to predict this parameter from Kow. Results on carry over rates (COR) and biotransfer factors (BTF) demonstrate that a steady-state ratio between animal intake and meat concentrations is almost never reached. For meat, empirical data collected on short term experiments need to be adjusted to provide estimates of average longer term behaviors. The performance of the new model in matching measurements is improved relative to existing models--thus reducing uncertainty. The CKow model is straight forward to apply at steady state for milk and dynamically for realistic exposure durations for meat COR.« less

Developing a psychiatrist–patient relationship when both people are doctors: a qualitative study

PubMed Central

Stanton, Josephine; Randal, Patte

2016-01-01

Objective To better understand the complexities of developing an effective psychiatrist–patient relationship when both people involved are doctors. Method In-depth, semistructured interviews were conducted with 11 doctors with experiences as patients of psychiatrists (DPs) and eight psychiatrists with experience of treating doctors (TPs). A thematic analysis was undertaken. Results The medical culture of unrealistically high standards with limited room for vulnerability and fallibility, vigilance for judgment and valuing clinical over personal knowledge affected both people in the relationship. DPs struggled with the contradictions involved in entering the patient role but tried hard to be good patients. They wanted guidance but found it hard to accept and seldom communicated dissatisfaction or disagreement to their TPs. They described widely varying responses to diagnosis and treatment within the biomedical model. TPs described enjoyment and satisfaction and extreme challenge in engaging with TPs. Despite focusing on providing ordinary care they described providing extra care in many ways. Conclusions This study brings forward important issues when a psychiatrist is building a therapeutic relationship with another doctor. These are also likely to arise with other people and contribute to making truly patient-centred ‘ordinary care’ a hard ideal to fulfil. They include: (1) doctors' sense of ourselves as invincible, (2) TPs' sense of personal connection to, and identity with, DPs, (3) having extensive medical knowledge and (4) striving to be good patients. We need to make these issues explicit and enable the DP (or other patients) to tell their story and speak about their experience of the consultation so that any potential rupture in the therapeutic relationship can be addressed early. PMID:27207623

Developing a psychiatrist-patient relationship when both people are doctors: a qualitative study.

PubMed

Stanton, Josephine; Randal, Patte

2016-05-20

To better understand the complexities of developing an effective psychiatrist-patient relationship when both people involved are doctors. In-depth, semistructured interviews were conducted with 11 doctors with experiences as patients of psychiatrists (DPs) and eight psychiatrists with experience of treating doctors (TPs). A thematic analysis was undertaken. The medical culture of unrealistically high standards with limited room for vulnerability and fallibility, vigilance for judgment and valuing clinical over personal knowledge affected both people in the relationship. DPs struggled with the contradictions involved in entering the patient role but tried hard to be good patients. They wanted guidance but found it hard to accept and seldom communicated dissatisfaction or disagreement to their TPs. They described widely varying responses to diagnosis and treatment within the biomedical model. TPs described enjoyment and satisfaction and extreme challenge in engaging with TPs. Despite focusing on providing ordinary care they described providing extra care in many ways. This study brings forward important issues when a psychiatrist is building a therapeutic relationship with another doctor. These are also likely to arise with other people and contribute to making truly patient-centred 'ordinary care' a hard ideal to fulfil. They include: (1) doctors' sense of ourselves as invincible, (2) TPs' sense of personal connection to, and identity with, DPs, (3) having extensive medical knowledge and (4) striving to be good patients. We need to make these issues explicit and enable the DP (or other patients) to tell their story and speak about their experience of the consultation so that any potential rupture in the therapeutic relationship can be addressed early. Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://www.bmj.com/company/products-services/rights-and-licensing/

Expensing options solves nothing.

PubMed

Sahlman, William A

2002-12-01

The use of stock options for executive compensation has become a lightning rod for public anger, and it's easy to see why. Many top executives grew hugely rich on the back of the gains they made on their options, profits they've been able to keep even as the value they were supposed to create disappeared. The supposed scam works like this: Current accounting regulations let companies ignore the cost of option grants on their income statements, so they can award valuable option packages without affecting reported earnings. Not charging the cost of the grants supposedly leads to overstated earnings, which purportedly translate into unrealistically high share prices, permitting top executives to realize big gains when they exercise their options. If an accounting anomaly is the problem, then the solution seems obvious: Write off executive share options against the current year's revenues. The trouble is, Sahlman writes, expensing option grants won't give us a more accurate view of earnings, won't add any information not already included in the financial statements, and won't even lead to equal treatment of different forms of executive pay. Far worse, expensing evades the real issue, which is whether compensation (options and other-wise) does what it's supposed to do--namely, help a company recruit, retain, and provide the right people with appropriate performance incentives. Any performance-based compensation system has the potential to encourage cheating. Only ethical management, sensible governance, adequate internal control systems, and comprehensive disclosure will save the investor from disaster. If, Sahlman warns, we pass laws that require the expensing of options, thinking that's fixed the fundamental flaws in corporate America's accounting, we will have missed a golden opportunity to focus on the much more extensive defects in the present system.

On the value of incorporating spatial statistics in large-scale geophysical inversions: the SABRe case

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kokkinaki, A.; Sleep, B. E.; Chambers, J. E.; Cirpka, O. A.; Nowak, W.

2010-12-01

Electrical Resistance Tomography (ERT) is a popular method for investigating subsurface heterogeneity. The method relies on measuring electrical potential differences and obtaining, through inverse modeling, the underlying electrical conductivity field, which can be related to hydraulic conductivities. The quality of site characterization strongly depends on the utilized inversion technique. Standard ERT inversion methods, though highly computationally efficient, do not consider spatial correlation of soil properties; as a result, they often underestimate the spatial variability observed in earth materials, thereby producing unrealistic subsurface models. Also, these methods do not quantify the uncertainty of the estimated properties, thus limiting their use in subsequent investigations. Geostatistical inverse methods can be used to overcome both these limitations; however, they are computationally expensive, which has hindered their wide use in practice. In this work, we compare a standard Gauss-Newton smoothness constrained least squares inversion method against the quasi-linear geostatistical approach using the three-dimensional ERT dataset of the SABRe (Source Area Bioremediation) project. The two methods are evaluated for their ability to: a) produce physically realistic electrical conductivity fields that agree with the wide range of data available for the SABRe site while being computationally efficient, and b) provide information on the spatial statistics of other parameters of interest, such as hydraulic conductivity. To explore the trade-off between inversion quality and computational efficiency, we also employ a 2.5-D forward model with corrections for boundary conditions and source singularities. The 2.5-D model accelerates the 3-D geostatistical inversion method. New adjoint equations are developed for the 2.5-D forward model for the efficient calculation of sensitivities. Our work shows that spatial statistics can be incorporated in large-scale ERT inversions to improve the inversion results without making them computationally prohibitive.

A 60 yr record of atmospheric carbon monoxide reconstructed from Greenland firn air

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Petrenko, V. V.; Martinerie, P.; Novelli, P.; Etheridge, D. M.; Levin, I.; Wang, Z.; Blunier, T.; Chappellaz, J.; Kaiser, J.; Lang, P.; Steele, L. P.; Hammer, S.; Mak, J.; Langenfelds, R. L.; Schwander, J.; Severinghaus, J. P.; Witrant, E.; Petron, G.; Battle, M. O.; Forster, G.; Sturges, W. T.; Lamarque, J.-F.; Steffen, K.; White, J. W. C.

2013-08-01

We present the first reconstruction of the Northern Hemisphere (NH) high latitude atmospheric carbon monoxide (CO) mole fraction from Greenland firn air. Firn air samples were collected at three deep ice core sites in Greenland (NGRIP in 2001, Summit in 2006 and NEEM in 2008). CO records from the three sites agree well with each other as well as with recent atmospheric measurements, indicating that CO is well preserved in the firn at these sites. CO atmospheric history was reconstructed back to the year 1950 from the measurements using a combination of two forward models of gas transport in firn and an inverse model. The reconstructed history suggests that Arctic CO in 1950 was 140-150 nmol mol-1, which is higher than today's values. CO mole fractions rose by 10-15 nmol mol-1 from 1950 to the 1970s and peaked in the 1970s or early 1980s, followed by a ≈ 30 nmol mol-1 decline to today's levels. We compare the CO history with the atmospheric histories of methane, light hydrocarbons, molecular hydrogen, CO stable isotopes and hydroxyl radicals (OH), as well as with published CO emission inventories and results of a historical run from a chemistry-transport model. We find that the reconstructed Greenland CO history cannot be reconciled with available emission inventories unless unrealistically large changes in OH are assumed. We argue that the available CO emission inventories strongly underestimate historical NH emissions, and fail to capture the emission decline starting in the late 1970s, which was most likely due to reduced emissions from road transportation in North America and Europe.

Incorporating inductances in tissue-scale models of cardiac electrophysiology

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rossi, Simone; Griffith, Boyce E.

2017-09-01

In standard models of cardiac electrophysiology, including the bidomain and monodomain models, local perturbations can propagate at infinite speed. We address this unrealistic property by developing a hyperbolic bidomain model that is based on a generalization of Ohm's law with a Cattaneo-type model for the fluxes. Further, we obtain a hyperbolic monodomain model in the case that the intracellular and extracellular conductivity tensors have the same anisotropy ratio. In one spatial dimension, the hyperbolic monodomain model is equivalent to a cable model that includes axial inductances, and the relaxation times of the Cattaneo fluxes are strictly related to these inductances. A purely linear analysis shows that the inductances are negligible, but models of cardiac electrophysiology are highly nonlinear, and linear predictions may not capture the fully nonlinear dynamics. In fact, contrary to the linear analysis, we show that for simple nonlinear ionic models, an increase in conduction velocity is obtained for small and moderate values of the relaxation time. A similar behavior is also demonstrated with biophysically detailed ionic models. Using the Fenton-Karma model along with a low-order finite element spatial discretization, we numerically analyze differences between the standard monodomain model and the hyperbolic monodomain model. In a simple benchmark test, we show that the propagation of the action potential is strongly influenced by the alignment of the fibers with respect to the mesh in both the parabolic and hyperbolic models when using relatively coarse spatial discretizations. Accurate predictions of the conduction velocity require computational mesh spacings on the order of a single cardiac cell. We also compare the two formulations in the case of spiral break up and atrial fibrillation in an anatomically detailed model of the left atrium, and we examine the effect of intracellular and extracellular inductances on the virtual electrode phenomenon.

On the nature of absorption features toward nearby stars

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kohl, S.; Czesla, S.; Schmitt, J. H. M. M.

2016-06-01

Context. Diffuse interstellar absorption bands (DIBs) of largely unknown chemical origin are regularly observed primarily in distant early-type stars. More recently, detections in nearby late-type stars have also been claimed. These stars' spectra are dominated by stellar absorption lines. Specifically, strong interstellar atomic and DIB absorption has been reported in τ Boo. Aims: We test these claims by studying the strength of interstellar absorption in high-resolution TIGRE spectra of the nearby stars τ Boo, HD 33608, and α CrB. Methods: We focus our analysis on a strong DIB located at 5780.61 Å and on the absorption of interstellar Na. First, we carry out a differential analysis by comparing the spectra of the highly similar F-stars, τ Boo and HD 33608, whose light, however, samples different lines of sight. To obtain absolute values for the DIB absorption, we compare the observed spectra of τ Boo, HD 33608, and α CrB to PHOENIX models and carry out basic spectral modeling based on Voigt line profiles. Results: The intercomparison between τ Boo and HD 33608 reveals that the difference in the line depth is 6.85 ± 1.48 mÅ at the DIB location which is, however, unlikely to be caused by DIB absorption. The comparison between PHOENIX models and observed spectra yields an upper limit of 34.0 ± 0.3 mÅ for any additional interstellar absorption in τ Boo; similar results are obtained for HD 33608 and α CrB. For all objects we derive unrealistically large values for the radial velocity of any presumed interstellar clouds. In τ Boo we find Na D absorption with an equivalent width of 0.65 ± 0.07 mÅ and 2.3 ± 0.1 mÅ in the D2 and D1 lines. For the other Na, absorption of the same magnitude could only be detected in the D2 line. Our comparisons between model and data show that the interstellar absorption toward τ Boo is not abnormally high. Conclusions: We find no significant DIB absorption in any of our target stars. Any differences between modeled and observed spectra are instead attributable to inaccuracies in the stellar atmospheric modeling than to DIB absorption. The spectra are available at the CDS via anonymous ftp to http://cdsarc.u-strasbg.fr (http://130.79.128.5) or via http://cdsarc.u-strasbg.fr/viz-bin/qcat?J/A+A/591/A20

Superhero‐related injuries in paediatrics: a case series

PubMed Central

Davies, Patrick; Surridge, Julia; Hole, Laura; Munro‐Davies, Lisa

2007-01-01

Five cases of serious injuries to children wearing superhero costumes, involving extreme risk‐taking behaviour, are presented here. Although children have always displayed behaviour seemingly unwise to the adult eye, the advent of superhero role models can give unrealistic expectations to the child, which may lead to serious injury. The children we saw have all had to contemplate on their way to hospital that they do not in fact possess superpowers. The inbuilt injury protection which some costumes possess is also discussed. PMID:17337680

Modeling, Analysis, and Control of Swarming Agents in a Probabilistic Framework

DTIC Science & Technology

2012-11-01

configurations, which can ultimately lead the swarm towards configurations close to the global minimum of the total potential of interactions. The drawback ...165–171, 1992. [6] H. Ye, H. Wang, and H. Wang, “Stabilization of a PVTOL aircraft and an inertia wheel pendulum using saturation technique,” IEEE...estimate its parameters. The drawback of this approach is that the assumed form of the field can be unrealistic. In the approach that we are presenting here

Optimal multi-dimensional poverty lines: The state of poverty in Iraq

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ameen, Jamal R. M.

2017-09-01

Poverty estimation based on calories intake is unrealistic. The established concept of multidimensional poverty has methodological weaknesses in the treatment of different dimensions and there is disagreement in methods of combining them into a single poverty line. This paper introduces a methodology to estimate optimal multidimensional poverty lines and uses the Iraqi household socio-economic survey data of 2012 to demonstrate the idea. The optimal poverty line for Iraq is found to be 170.5 Thousand Iraqi Dinars (TID).

The myth of the 90 degrees-angle intramuscular injection.

PubMed

Katsma, D L; Katsma, R

2000-01-01

This article shows that the textbook 90 degrees-angle requirement for intramuscular injections is unrealistic. Trigonometry demonstrates that an injection given at 72 degrees reaches 95% of the depth of an injection given at 90 degrees. This relation between needle angle and needle depth, previous research into the kinematics of hand motion during an intramuscular injection, and other practical considerations support the proposal for a new, relaxed standard: Intramuscular injections administered at a comfortable angle between 72 degrees and 90 degrees.

Introduced species as evolutionary traps

USGS Publications Warehouse

Schlaepfer, Martin A.; Sherman, P.W.; Blossey, B.; Runge, M.C.

2005-01-01

Invasive species can alter environments in such a way that normal behavioural decision-making rules of native species are no longer adaptive. The evolutionary trap concept provides a useful framework for predicting and managing the impact of harmful invasive species. We discuss how native species can respond to changes in their selective regime via evolution or learning. We also propose novel management strategies to promote the long-term co-existence of native and introduced species in cases where the eradication of the latter is either economically or biologically unrealistic.

Maniac Talk - Michael Kurylo

NASA Image and Video Library

2016-11-16

Michael Kurylo Maniac Lecture, November 16, 2016 NASA climate scientist Michael Kurylo presented a Maniac lecture entitled, "An Uncharted Journey: How I Became an Atmospheric Scientist Rather than a Cowboy or a Farmer." Mike described the path that took him from post-WW II housing projects to and through a rural Connecticut neighborhood, how he became convinced about the unrealistic nature of some early naive career dreams, and how he eventually arrived at a career in atmospheric science (research and program management, and their interface with international environmental policy).

Differential diagnosis and management of human-directed aggression in cats.

PubMed

Frank, Diane; Dehasse, Joel

2003-03-01

Human-directed aggression in cats should be evaluated as a multifactorial problem. It results from the combined actions of heredity, environment, learning, human social requirements (or needs), client interactions, lack of understanding of normal feline behavior, unrealistic client expectations, and lack of meeting the cat's basic ethologic needs. Managing human-directed aggression in cats encompasses the use of environmental modification, therapies, and, when and if needed, regulatory drugs so as to increase learning capabilities and adaptation and decrease danger to the human victims.

Risky future for Mediterranean forests unless they undergo extreme carbon fertilization.

PubMed

Gea-Izquierdo, Guillermo; Nicault, Antoine; Battipaglia, Giovanna; Dorado-Liñán, Isabel; Gutiérrez, Emilia; Ribas, Montserrat; Guiot, Joel

2017-07-01

Forest performance is challenged by climate change but higher atmospheric [CO 2 ] (c a ) could help trees mitigate the negative effect of enhanced water stress. Forest projections using data assimilation with mechanistic models are a valuable tool to assess forest performance. Firstly, we used dendrochronological data from 12 Mediterranean tree species (six conifers and six broadleaves) to calibrate a process-based vegetation model at 77 sites. Secondly, we conducted simulations of gross primary production (GPP) and radial growth using an ensemble of climate projections for the period 2010-2100 for the high-emission RCP8.5 and low-emission RCP2.6 scenarios. GPP and growth projections were simulated using climatic data from the two RCPs combined with (i) expected c a ; (ii) constant c a  = 390 ppm, to test a purely climate-driven performance excluding compensation from carbon fertilization. The model accurately mimicked the growth trends since the 1950s when, despite increasing c a , enhanced evaporative demands precluded a global net positive effect on growth. Modeled annual growth and GPP showed similar long-term trends. Under RCP2.6 (i.e., temperatures below +2 °C with respect to preindustrial values), the forests showed resistance to future climate (as expressed by non-negative trends in growth and GPP) except for some coniferous sites. Using exponentially growing c a and climate as from RCP8.5, carbon fertilization overrode the negative effect of the highly constraining climatic conditions under that scenario. This effect was particularly evident above 500 ppm (which is already over +2 °C), which seems unrealistic and likely reflects model miss-performance at high c a above the calibration range. Thus, forest projections under RCP8.5 preventing carbon fertilization displayed very negative forest performance at the regional scale. This suggests that most of western Mediterranean forests would successfully acclimate to the coldest climate change scenario but be vulnerable to a climate warmer than +2 °C unless the trees developed an exaggerated fertilization response to [CO 2 ]. © 2017 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Assessing precision, bias and sigma-metrics of 53 measurands of the Alinity ci system.

PubMed

Westgard, Sten; Petrides, Victoria; Schneider, Sharon; Berman, Marvin; Herzogenrath, Jörg; Orzechowski, Anthony

2017-12-01

Assay performance is dependent on the accuracy and precision of a given method. These attributes can be combined into an analytical Sigma-metric, providing a simple value for laboratorians to use in evaluating a test method's capability to meet its analytical quality requirements. Sigma-metrics were determined for 37 clinical chemistry assays, 13 immunoassays, and 3 ICT methods on the Alinity ci system. Analytical Performance Specifications were defined for the assays, following a rationale of using CLIA goals first, then Ricos Desirable goals when CLIA did not regulate the method, and then other sources if the Ricos Desirable goal was unrealistic. A precision study was conducted at Abbott on each assay using the Alinity ci system following the CLSI EP05-A2 protocol. Bias was estimated following the CLSI EP09-A3 protocol using samples with concentrations spanning the assay's measuring interval tested in duplicate on the Alinity ci system and ARCHITECT c8000 and i2000 SR systems, where testing was also performed at Abbott. Using the regression model, the %bias was estimated at an important medical decisions point. Then the Sigma-metric was estimated for each assay and was plotted on a method decision chart. The Sigma-metric was calculated using the equation: Sigma-metric=(%TEa-|%bias|)/%CV. The Sigma-metrics and Normalized Method Decision charts demonstrate that a majority of the Alinity assays perform at least at five Sigma or higher, at or near critical medical decision levels. More than 90% of the assays performed at Five and Six Sigma. None performed below Three Sigma. Sigma-metrics plotted on Normalized Method Decision charts provide useful evaluations of performance. The majority of Alinity ci system assays had sigma values >5 and thus laboratories can expect excellent or world class performance. Laboratorians can use these tools as aids in choosing high-quality products, further contributing to the delivery of excellent quality healthcare for patients. Copyright © 2017 The Canadian Society of Clinical Chemists. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Building beef cow nutritional programs with the 1996 NRC beef cattle requirements model.

PubMed

Lardy, G P; Adams, D C; Klopfenstein, T J; Patterson, H H

2004-01-01

Designing a sound cow-calf nutritional program requires knowledge of nutrient requirements, diet quality, and intake. Effectively using the NRC (1996) beef cattle requirements model (1996NRC) also requires knowledge of dietary degradable intake protein (DIP) and microbial efficiency. Objectives of this paper are to 1) describe a framework in which 1996NRC-applicable data can be generated, 2) describe seasonal changes in nutrients on native range, 3) use the 1996NRC to predict nutrient balance for cattle grazing these forages, and 4) make recommendations for using the 1996NRC for forage-fed cattle. Extrusa samples were collected over 2 yr on native upland range and subirrigated meadow in the Nebraska Sandhills. Samples were analyzed for CP, in vitro OM digestibility (IVOMD), and DIP. Regression equations to predict nutrients were developed from these data. The 1996NRC was used to predict nutrient balances based on the dietary nutrient analyses. Recommendations for model users were also developed. On subirrigated meadow, CP and IVOMD increased rapidly during March and April. On native range, CP and IVOMD increased from April through June but decreased rapidly from August through September. Degradable intake protein (DM basis) followed trends similar to CP for both native range and subirrigated meadow. Predicted nutrient balances for spring- and summer-calving cows agreed with reported values in the literature, provided that IVOMD values were converted to DE before use in the model (1.07 x IVOMD - 8.13). When the IVOMD-to-DE conversion was not used, the model gave unrealistically high NE(m) balances. To effectively use the 1996NRC to estimate protein requirements, users should focus on three key estimates: DIP, microbial efficiency, and TDN intake. Consequently, efforts should be focused on adequately describing seasonal changes in forage nutrient content. In order to increase use of the 1996NRC, research is needed in the following areas: 1) cost-effective and accurate commercial laboratory procedures to estimate DIP, 2) reliable estimates or indicators of microbial efficiency for various forage types and qualities, 3) improved estimates of dietary TDN for forage-based diets, 4) validation work to improve estimates of DIP and MP requirements, and 5) incorporation of nitrogen recycling estimates.

Modeling central metabolism and energy biosynthesis across microbial life

DOE PAGES

Edirisinghe, Janaka N.; Weisenhorn, Pamela; Conrad, Neal; ...

2016-08-08

Here, automatically generated bacterial metabolic models, and even some curated models, lack accuracy in predicting energy yields due to poor representation of key pathways in energy biosynthesis and the electron transport chain (ETC). Further compounding the problem, complex interlinking pathways in genome-scale metabolic models, and the need for extensive gapfilling to support complex biomass reactions, often results in predicting unrealistic yields or unrealistic physiological flux profiles. As a result, to overcome this challenge, we developed methods and tools to build high quality core metabolic models (CMM) representing accurate energy biosynthesis based on a well studied, phylogenetically diverse set of modelmore » organisms. We compare these models to explore the variability of core pathways across all microbial life, and by analyzing the ability of our core models to synthesize ATP and essential biomass precursors, we evaluate the extent to which the core metabolic pathways and functional ETCs are known for all microbes. 6,600 (80 %) of our models were found to have some type of aerobic ETC, whereas 5,100 (62 %) have an anaerobic ETC, and 1,279 (15 %) do not have any ETC. Using our manually curated ETC and energy biosynthesis pathways with no gapfilling at all, we predict accurate ATP yields for nearly 5586 (70 %) of the models under aerobic and anaerobic growth conditions. This study revealed gaps in our knowledge of the central pathways that result in 2,495 (30 %) CMMs being unable to produce ATP under any of the tested conditions. We then established a methodology for the systematic identification and correction of inconsistent annotations using core metabolic models coupled with phylogenetic analysis. In conclusion, we predict accurate energy yields based on our improved annotations in energy biosynthesis pathways and the implementation of diverse ETC reactions across the microbial tree of life. We highlighted missing annotations that were essential to energy biosynthesis in our models. We examine the diversity of these pathways across all microbial life and enable the scientific community to explore the analyses generated from this large-scale analysis of over 8000 microbial genomes.« less

Modeling central metabolism and energy biosynthesis across microbial life

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Edirisinghe, Janaka N.; Weisenhorn, Pamela; Conrad, Neal

Here, automatically generated bacterial metabolic models, and even some curated models, lack accuracy in predicting energy yields due to poor representation of key pathways in energy biosynthesis and the electron transport chain (ETC). Further compounding the problem, complex interlinking pathways in genome-scale metabolic models, and the need for extensive gapfilling to support complex biomass reactions, often results in predicting unrealistic yields or unrealistic physiological flux profiles. As a result, to overcome this challenge, we developed methods and tools to build high quality core metabolic models (CMM) representing accurate energy biosynthesis based on a well studied, phylogenetically diverse set of modelmore » organisms. We compare these models to explore the variability of core pathways across all microbial life, and by analyzing the ability of our core models to synthesize ATP and essential biomass precursors, we evaluate the extent to which the core metabolic pathways and functional ETCs are known for all microbes. 6,600 (80 %) of our models were found to have some type of aerobic ETC, whereas 5,100 (62 %) have an anaerobic ETC, and 1,279 (15 %) do not have any ETC. Using our manually curated ETC and energy biosynthesis pathways with no gapfilling at all, we predict accurate ATP yields for nearly 5586 (70 %) of the models under aerobic and anaerobic growth conditions. This study revealed gaps in our knowledge of the central pathways that result in 2,495 (30 %) CMMs being unable to produce ATP under any of the tested conditions. We then established a methodology for the systematic identification and correction of inconsistent annotations using core metabolic models coupled with phylogenetic analysis. In conclusion, we predict accurate energy yields based on our improved annotations in energy biosynthesis pathways and the implementation of diverse ETC reactions across the microbial tree of life. We highlighted missing annotations that were essential to energy biosynthesis in our models. We examine the diversity of these pathways across all microbial life and enable the scientific community to explore the analyses generated from this large-scale analysis of over 8000 microbial genomes.« less

Modeling central metabolism and energy biosynthesis across microbial life.

PubMed

Edirisinghe, Janaka N; Weisenhorn, Pamela; Conrad, Neal; Xia, Fangfang; Overbeek, Ross; Stevens, Rick L; Henry, Christopher S

2016-08-08

Automatically generated bacterial metabolic models, and even some curated models, lack accuracy in predicting energy yields due to poor representation of key pathways in energy biosynthesis and the electron transport chain (ETC). Further compounding the problem, complex interlinking pathways in genome-scale metabolic models, and the need for extensive gapfilling to support complex biomass reactions, often results in predicting unrealistic yields or unrealistic physiological flux profiles. To overcome this challenge, we developed methods and tools ( http://coremodels.mcs.anl.gov ) to build high quality core metabolic models (CMM) representing accurate energy biosynthesis based on a well studied, phylogenetically diverse set of model organisms. We compare these models to explore the variability of core pathways across all microbial life, and by analyzing the ability of our core models to synthesize ATP and essential biomass precursors, we evaluate the extent to which the core metabolic pathways and functional ETCs are known for all microbes. 6,600 (80 %) of our models were found to have some type of aerobic ETC, whereas 5,100 (62 %) have an anaerobic ETC, and 1,279 (15 %) do not have any ETC. Using our manually curated ETC and energy biosynthesis pathways with no gapfilling at all, we predict accurate ATP yields for nearly 5586 (70 %) of the models under aerobic and anaerobic growth conditions. This study revealed gaps in our knowledge of the central pathways that result in 2,495 (30 %) CMMs being unable to produce ATP under any of the tested conditions. We then established a methodology for the systematic identification and correction of inconsistent annotations using core metabolic models coupled with phylogenetic analysis. We predict accurate energy yields based on our improved annotations in energy biosynthesis pathways and the implementation of diverse ETC reactions across the microbial tree of life. We highlighted missing annotations that were essential to energy biosynthesis in our models. We examine the diversity of these pathways across all microbial life and enable the scientific community to explore the analyses generated from this large-scale analysis of over 8000 microbial genomes.

Analysis of uncertainties in GOSAT-inferred regional CO2 fluxes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ishizawa, M.; Shirai, T.; Maksyutov, S. S.; Yoshida, Y.; Morino, I.; Inoue, M.; Nakatsuru, T.; Uchino, O.; Mabuchi, K.

2016-12-01

Satellite-based CO2 measurements have potential for improving our understanding global carbon cycle because of more spatiotemporal coverage than those from ground-based observations. Since the Greenhouse gases Observing Satellite (GOSAT) was launched in January 2009, it has been measuring the column-average dry air-mole function of CO2 (XCO2) from the space. To utilize the GOSAT XCO2 for better CO2 flux estimates, several challenges should be overcome. Systematic errors (biases) in XCO2 retrievals are a major factor which leads to large differences among inverted CO2 fluxes. Temporally variable data coverage and density are also taken into account when interpreting the estimated surface fluxes. In this study, we employ an atmospheric inverse model to investigate the impacts of retrievals biases and temporally varying global distribution of GOSAT XCO2 on surface CO2 flux estimates. Inversions are performed for 2009-2013, with several subsets of the 5-year record of GOSAT XCO2 (v2.21) and its bias-corrected XCO2. GOSAT XCO2 data consist of three types: H-gain for vegetated lands, M-gain for bright surfaces (desert areas), and sun-glint for ocean surface. The results show that the global spatial distributions of estimated CO2 fluxes depend on the subset of XCO2 used. M-gain XCO2 results in unrealistically high CO2 emissions in and around the Middle East, including the neighboring ocean regions. On the other hand, M-gain XCO2 causes compensating unrealistic uptakes far beyond M-gain regions in low latitudes, also partially contributing on the summer uptake in Europe. The joint inversions with both surface measurements and GOSAT XCO2 data obtain larger flux gradient between the northern extra-tropics and the tropics than the inversion with surface measurements only for the first 2 years. Recently, these North-South gradients seem to be gradually reducing as the tropics become a weaker source or turn into a sink, while the net emission strength in East Asia is increasing. The 5-year XCO2 data allows us detailed analysis of uncertainties in GOSAT-inferred fluxes and assessment of GOSAT XCO2 biases.

Severe wind gust thresholds for Meteoalarm derived from uniform return periods in ECA&D

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Stepek, A.; Wijnant, I. L.; van der Schrier, G.; van den Besselaar, E. J. M.; Klein Tank, A. M. G.

2012-06-01

In this study we present an alternative wind gust warning guideline for Meteoalarm, the severe weather warning website for Europe. There are unrealistically large differences in levels and issuing frequencies of all warning levels currently in use between neighbouring Meteoalarm countries. This study provides a guide for the Meteoalarm community to review their wind gust warning thresholds. A more uniform warning system is achieved by using one pan-European return period per warning level. The associated return values will be different throughout Europe because they depend on local climate conditions, but they will not change abruptly at country borders as is currently the case for the thresholds. As return values are a measure of the possible danger of an event and its impact on society, they form an ideal basis for a warning system. Validated wind gust measurements from the European Climate Assessment and Dataset (ECA&D, http://www.ecad.eu) were used to calculate return values of the annual maximum wind gust. The current thresholds are compared with return values for 3 different return periods: 10 times a year return periods for yellow warnings, 2 yr periods for orange and 5 yr periods for red warnings. So far 10 countries provide wind gust data to ECA&D. Due to the ECA&D completeness requirements and the fact that some countries provided too few stations to be representative for that country, medians of the return values of annual maximum wind gust could be calculated for 6 of the 10 countries. Alternative guideline thresholds are presented for Norway, Ireland, The Netherlands, Germany, the Czech Republic and Spain and the need to distinguish between coastal, inland and mountainous regions is demonstrated. The new thresholds based on uniform return periods differ significantly from the current ones, particularly for coastal and mountainous areas. We are aware of other, sometimes binding factors (e.g. laws) that prevent participating counties from implementing this climatology based warning system.

Regional climate model data used within the SWURVE project - 1: projected changes in seasonal patterns and estimation of PET

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ekström, M.; Jones, P. D.; Fowler, H. J.; Lenderink, G.; Buishand, T. A.; Conway, D.

2007-04-01

Climate data for studies within the SWURVE (Sustainable Water: Uncertainty, Risk and Vulnerability in Europe) project, assessing the risk posed by future climatic change to various hydrological and hydraulic systems were obtained from the regional climate model HadRM3H, developed at the Hadley Centre of the UK Met Office. This paper gives some background to HadRM3H; it also presents anomaly maps of the projected future changes in European temperature, rainfall and potential evapotranspiration (PET, estimated using a variant of the Penman formula). The future simulations of temperature and rainfall, following the SRES A2 emissions scenario, suggest that most of Europe will experience warming in all seasons, with heavier precipitation in winter in much of western Europe (except for central and northern parts of the Scandinavian mountains) and drier summers in most parts of western and central Europe (except for the north-west and the eastern part of the Baltic Sea). Particularly large temperature anomalies (>6°C) are projected for north-east Europe in winter and for southern Europe, Asia Minor and parts of Russia in summer. The projected PET displayed very large increases in summer for a region extending from southern France to Russia. The unrealistically large values could be the result of an enhanced hydrological cycle in HadRM3H, affecting several of the input parameters to the PET calculation. To avoid problems with hydrological modelling schemes, PET was re-calculated, using empirical relationships derived from observational values of temperature and PET.

Can we map the interannual variability of the whole upper Southern Ocean with the current database of hydrographic observations?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Heuzé, C.; Vivier, F.; Le Sommer, J.; Molines, J.-M.; Penduff, T.

2015-12-01

With the advent of Argo floats, it now seems feasible to study the interannual variations of upper ocean hydrographic properties of the historically undersampled Southern Ocean. To do so, scattered hydrographic profiles often first need to be mapped. To investigate biases and errors associated both with the limited space-time distribution of the profiles and with the mapping methods, we colocate the mixed-layer depth (MLD) output from a state-of-the-art 1/12° DRAKKAR simulation onto the latitude, longitude, and date of actual in situ profiles from 2005 to 2014. We compare the results obtained after remapping using a nearest neighbor (NN) interpolation and an objective analysis (OA) with different spatiotemporal grid resolutions and decorrelation scales. NN is improved with a coarser resolution. OA performs best with low decorrelation scales, avoiding too strong a smoothing, but returns values over larger areas with large decorrelation scales and low temporal resolution, as more points are available. For all resolutions OA represents better the annual extreme values than NN. Both methods underestimate the seasonal cycle in MLD. MLD biases are lower than 10 m on average but can exceed 250 m locally in winter. We argue that current Argo data should not be mapped to infer decadal trends in MLD, as all methods are unable to reproduce existing trends without creating unrealistic extra ones. We also show that regions of the subtropical Atlantic, Indian, and Pacific Oceans, and the whole ice-covered Southern Ocean, still cannot be mapped even by the best method because of the lack of observational data.

The proton and helium anomalies in the light of the Myriad model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Salati, Pierre; Génolini, Yoann; Serpico, Pasquale; Taillet, Richard

2017-03-01

A hardening of the proton and helium fluxes is observed above a few hundreds of GeV/nuc. The distribution of local sources of primary cosmic rays has been suggested as a potential solution to this puzzling behavior. Some authors even claim that a single source is responsible for the observed anomalies. But how probable these explanations are? To answer that question, our current description of cosmic ray Galactic propagation needs to be replaced by the Myriad model. In the former approach, sources of protons and helium nuclei are treated as a jelly continuously spread over space and time. A more accurate description is provided by the Myriad model where sources are considered as point-like events. This leads to a probabilistic derivation of the fluxes of primary species, and opens the possibility that larger-than-average values may be observed at the Earth. For a long time though, a major obstacle has been the infinite variance associated to the probability distribution function which the fluxes follow. Several suggestions have been made to cure this problem but none is entirely satisfactory. We go a step further here and solve the infinite variance problem of the Myriad model by making use of the generalized central limit theorem. We find that primary fluxes are distributed according to a stable law with heavy tail, well-known to financial analysts. The probability that the proton and helium anomalies are sourced by local SNR can then be calculated. The p-values associated to the CREAM measurements turn out to be small, unless somewhat unrealistic propagation parameters are assumed.

A serial qualitative interview study of infant feeding experiences: idealism meets realism

PubMed Central

Craig, Leone C A; Britten, Jane; McInnes, Rhona M

2012-01-01

Objective To investigate the infant feeding experiences of women and their significant others from pregnancy until 6 months after birth to establish what would make a difference. Design Qualitative serial interview study. Setting Two health boards in Scotland. Participants 72 of 541 invited pregnant women volunteered. 220 interviews approximately every 4 weeks with 36 women, 26 partners, eight maternal mothers, one sister and two health professionals took place. Results The overarching theme was a clash between overt or covert infant feeding idealism and the reality experienced. This is manifest as pivotal points where families perceive that the only solution that will restore family well-being is to stop breast feeding or introduce solids. Immediate family well-being is the overriding goal rather than theoretical longer term health benefits. Feeding education is perceived as unrealistic, overly technical and rules based which can undermine women's confidence. Unanimously families would prefer the balance to shift away from antenatal theory towards more help immediately after birth and at 3–4 months when solids are being considered. Family-orientated interactive discussions are valued above breastfeeding-centred checklist style encounters. Conclusions Adopting idealistic global policy goals like exclusive breast feeding until 6 months as individual goals for women is unhelpful. More achievable incremental goals are recommended. Using a proactive family-centred narrative approach to feeding care might enable pivotal points to be anticipated and resolved. More attention to the diverse values, meanings and emotions around infant feeding within families could help to reconcile health ideals with reality. PMID:22422915

Residues of carcinogenic animal drugs in food: difficulties in evaluation of human safety.

PubMed

Somogyi, A

1979-01-01

The indisputable need to intensify animal production in order to provide an adequate food supply for the world population involves the use of substances that are highly potent pharmacologically and toxicologically. The history of regulatory action with regard to such additives is similar to that for other substances: first, no regulation; next, an over-reaction; and now decisions based on judicious evaluation of scientific facts. One factor that differentiates the chemicals used in animal production from other food additives is that both the parent compounds and their metabolites appear in edible products, posing problems both for the analytical detection and safety evaluation of such residues. It would be unrealistic to propose 'zero' tolerances for these additives, even if they are carcinogenic. The benefits gained from drugs that cure and prevent infections and parasitic diseases in food-producing animals, and the fact that analytical methods can now detect very small quantities make the presence of low levels of these substances in food unobjectionable.

"Touching Triton": Building Student Understanding of Complex Disease Risk.

PubMed

Loftin, Madelene; East, Kelly; Hott, Adam; Lamb, Neil

2016-01-01

Life science classrooms often emphasize the exception to the rule when it comes to teaching genetics, focusing heavily on rare single-gene and Mendelian traits. By contrast, the vast majority of human traits and diseases are caused by more complicated interactions between genetic and environmental factors. Research indicates that students have a deterministic view of genetics, generalize Mendelian inheritance patterns to all traits, and have unrealistic expectations of genetic technologies. The challenge lies in how to help students analyze complex disease risk with a lack of curriculum materials. Providing open access to both content resources and an engaging storyline can be achieved using a "serious game" model. "Touching Triton" was developed as a serious game in which students are asked to analyze data from a medical record, family history, and genomic report in order to develop an overall lifetime risk estimate of six common, complex diseases. Evaluation of student performance shows significant learning gains in key content areas along with a high level of engagement.

Simplification of Fatigue Test Requirements for Damage Tolerance of Composite Interstage Launch Vehicle Hardware

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Nettles, A. T.; Hodge, A. J.; Jackson, J. R.

2010-01-01

The issue of fatigue loading of structures composed of composite materials is considered in a requirements document that is currently in place for manned launch vehicles. By taking into account the short life of these parts, coupled with design considerations, it is demonstrated that the necessary coupon level fatigue data collapse to a static case. Data from a literature review of past studies that examined compressive fatigue loading after impact and data generated from this experimental study are presented to support this finding. Damage growth, in the form of infrared thermography, was difficult to detect due to rapid degradation of compressive properties once damage growth initiated. Unrealistically high fatigue amplitudes were needed to fail 5 of 15 specimens before 10,000 cycles were reached. Since a typical vehicle structure, such as the Ares I interstage, only experiences a few cycles near limit load, it is concluded that static compression after impact (CAI) strength data will suffice for most launch vehicle structures.

Paternity and inheritance of wealth

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hartung, John

1981-06-01

One of the oldest conjectures in anthropology is that men transfer wealth to their sister's son when the biological paternity of their `own' children is in doubt1-12. Because maternity is certain, a man is necessarily related to his sister's son and his brother (see Fig. 1). It is argued here that relatedness to male heirs can be assured by passing wealth to sister's sons or down a line of brothers, whether the prevailing kinship system reckons those brothers matrilineally or patrilineally. It is also argued that when several transfers of wealth are considered, a man's likelihood of being cuckolded need not be unrealistically high13 for his successive matrilineal heirs to be more related to him than his successive patrilineal heirs (see Fig. 2). Cross-cultural data on sister's son/brother inheritance14 and frequency of extramarital sex for females15 support the hypothesis that men tend to transmit wealth to their sister's son and/or brother when the probability that their putative children are their genetic children is relatively low.

[HTA-Perspective: Challenges in the early assessment of new oncological drugs].

PubMed

Wild, Claudia; Nachtnebel, Anna

2013-01-01

Oncologic drug therapies have gained wide attention in the context of health policy priority setting for serious and socially significant diseases with high human and monetary costs. Due to uncertainties and scepticism about the actual therapeutic importance of newly approved oncology products, an early assessment programme was already established in Austria in 2007. The assessment of new oncology products is thereby faced with special challenges, since study populations are frequently not representative or the study design is laid out in such a manner that a definitive assessment of patient-relevant endpoints is not possible (cross-overs after interim assessments, surrogate parameters as primary endpoints, uncontrolled studies or those with unrealistic comparators, invalidated post-hoc identified biomarkers). On account of these major uncertainties, even the European Medicines Agency (EMA) is already contemplating multi-stage, "adaptive" approvals, and national reimbursement institutions are increasingly working with outcome-oriented, conditional reimbursement. (As supplied by publisher). Copyright © 2013. Published by Elsevier GmbH.

Groundwater connectivity of upland-embedded wetlands in the Prairie Pothole Region

USGS Publications Warehouse

Neff, Brian; Rosenberry, Donald O.

2018-01-01

Groundwater connections from upland-embedded wetlands to downstream waterbodies remain poorly understood. In principle, water from upland-embedded wetlands situated high in a landscape should flow via groundwater to waterbodies situated lower in the landscape. However, the degree of groundwater connectivity varies across systems due to factors such as geologic setting, hydrologic conditions, and topography. We use numerical models to evaluate the conditions suitable for groundwater connectivity between upland-embedded wetlands and downstream waterbodies in the prairie pothole region of North Dakota (USA). Results show groundwater connectivity between upland-embedded wetlands and other waterbodies is restricted when these wetlands are surrounded by a mounding water table. However, connectivity exists among adjacent upland-embedded wetlands where water–table mounds do not form. In addition, the presence of sand layers greatly facilitates groundwater connectivity of upland-embedded wetlands. Anisotropy can facilitate connectivity via groundwater flow, but only if it becomes unrealistically large. These findings help consolidate previously divergent views on the significance of local and regional groundwater flow in the prairie pothole region.

LIQHYSMES—size, loss and cost considerations for the SMES—a conceptual analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sander, Michael; Neumann, Holger

2011-10-01

A new energy storage concept for variable renewable energy, LIQHYSMES, has been proposed which combines the use of liquid hydrogen (LH2) with superconducting magnetic energy storage (SMES). LH2 with its high volumetric energy density and, compared with compressed hydrogen, increased operational safety is the prime energy carrier for large scale stationary energy storage. But balancing load or supply fluctuations with hydrogen alone is unrealistic due to the response times of the flow control. To operate the hydrogen part more steadily, additional short-term electrical energy storage is needed. For this purpose a SMES based on coated conductors or magnesium diboride MgB2 operated in the LH2 bath, is proposed. Different solenoidal and toroidal SMES designs for the 10 GJ range are compared in terms of size and ramping losses. Cost targets for different power levels and supply periods are addressed, taking into account current developments in competing short-term storage devices like super-capacitors, batteries and flywheels.

Chest x-ray generation and data augmentation for cardiovascular abnormality classification

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Madani, Ali; Moradi, Mehdi; Karargyris, Alexandros; Syeda-Mahmood, Tanveer

2018-03-01

Medical imaging datasets are limited in size due to privacy issues and the high cost of obtaining annotations. Augmentation is a widely used practice in deep learning to enrich the data in data-limited scenarios and to avoid overfitting. However, standard augmentation methods that produce new examples of data by varying lighting, field of view, and spatial rigid transformations do not capture the biological variance of medical imaging data and could result in unrealistic images. Generative adversarial networks (GANs) provide an avenue to understand the underlying structure of image data which can then be utilized to generate new realistic samples. In this work, we investigate the use of GANs for producing chest X-ray images to augment a dataset. This dataset is then used to train a convolutional neural network to classify images for cardiovascular abnormalities. We compare our augmentation strategy with traditional data augmentation and show higher accuracy for normal vs abnormal classification in chest X-rays.

SOA formation by biogenic and carbonyl compounds: data evaluation and application.

PubMed

Ervens, Barbara; Kreidenweis, Sonia M

2007-06-01

The organic fraction of atmospheric aerosols affects the physical and chemical properties of the particles and their role in the climate system. Current models greatly underpredict secondary organic aerosol (SOA) mass. Based on a compilation of literature studies that address SOA formation, we discuss different parameters that affect the SOA formation efficiency of biogenic compounds (alpha-pinene, isoprene) and aliphatic aldehydes (glyoxal, hexanal, octanal, hexadienal). Applying a simple model, we find that the estimated SOA mass after one week of aerosol processing under typical atmospheric conditions is increased by a few microg m(-3) (low NO(x) conditions). Acid-catalyzed reactions can create > 50% more SOA mass than processes under neutral conditions; however, other parameters such as the concentration ratio of organics/NO(x), relative humidity, and absorbing mass are more significant. The assumption of irreversible SOA formation not limited by equilibrium in the particle phase or by depletion of the precursor leads to unrealistically high SOA masses for some of the assumptions we made (surface vs volume controlled processes).

Encouraging Realistic Expectations in STEM Students: Paradoxical Effects of a Motivational Intervention

PubMed Central

Hall, Nathan C.; Sverdlik, Anna

2016-01-01

College students in STEM (science, technology, engineering, mathematics) disciplines are increasingly faced with highly competitive and demanding degree programs and are at risk of academic overconfidence. Following from theory and research highlighting the psychological and developmental risks of unrealistic expectations, the present exploratory study evaluated the longitudinal effects of a motivational intervention encouraging college students in STEM degree programs (N = 52) to consider the importance of downgrading one’s expectations in response to academic setbacks. Contrary to study hypotheses, the results showed intervention participants to report significantly higher expectations and optimism on post-test measures administered 4 months later, no significant gains in emotional well-being or achievement goal orientations, and lower GPAs over five subsequent semesters. These paradoxical effects underscore the need for additional larger-scale research on the nature of students’ responses to potentially ego-threatening motivational programs in STEM disciplines so as to minimize achievement deficits at the expense of preserving motivational resources. PMID:27507955

Directing gaze: the effect of disclaimer labels on women's visual attention to fashion magazine advertisements.

PubMed

Bury, Belinda; Tiggemann, Marika; Slater, Amy

2014-09-01

In an effort to combat the known negative effects of exposure to unrealistic thin ideal images, there is increasing worldwide pressure on fashion, media and advertising industries to disclose when images have been digitally altered. The current study used eye tracking technology to investigate experimentally how digital alteration disclaimer labels impact women's visual attention to fashion magazine advertisements. Participants were 60 female undergraduate students who viewed four thin ideal advertisements with either no disclaimer, a generic disclaimer, or a specific more detailed disclaimer. It was established that women did attend to the disclaimers. The nature of the disclaimer had no effect on time spent looking at particular body parts, but did affect the direction of gaze following reading of the disclaimer. This latter effect was found to be greater for women high on trait appearance comparison. Further research is paramount in guiding effective policy around the use of disclaimer labels. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

A physics-based algorithm for real-time simulation of electrosurgery procedures in minimally invasive surgery.

PubMed

Lu, Zhonghua; Arikatla, Venkata S; Han, Zhongqing; Allen, Brian F; De, Suvranu

2014-12-01

High-frequency electricity is used in the majority of surgical interventions. However, modern computer-based training and simulation systems rely on physically unrealistic models that fail to capture the interplay of the electrical, mechanical and thermal properties of biological tissue. We present a real-time and physically realistic simulation of electrosurgery by modelling the electrical, thermal and mechanical properties as three iteratively solved finite element models. To provide subfinite-element graphical rendering of vaporized tissue, a dual-mesh dynamic triangulation algorithm based on isotherms is proposed. The block compressed row storage (BCRS) structure is shown to be critical in allowing computationally efficient changes in the tissue topology due to vaporization. We have demonstrated our physics-based electrosurgery cutting algorithm through various examples. Our matrix manipulation algorithms designed for topology changes have shown low computational cost. Our simulator offers substantially greater physical fidelity compared to previous simulators that use simple geometry-based heat characterization. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Independent Component Analysis-motivated Approach to Classificatory Decomposition of Cortical Evoked Potentials

PubMed Central

Smolinski, Tomasz G; Buchanan, Roger; Boratyn, Grzegorz M; Milanova, Mariofanna; Prinz, Astrid A

2006-01-01

Background Independent Component Analysis (ICA) proves to be useful in the analysis of neural activity, as it allows for identification of distinct sources of activity. Applied to measurements registered in a controlled setting and under exposure to an external stimulus, it can facilitate analysis of the impact of the stimulus on those sources. The link between the stimulus and a given source can be verified by a classifier that is able to "predict" the condition a given signal was registered under, solely based on the components. However, the ICA's assumption about statistical independence of sources is often unrealistic and turns out to be insufficient to build an accurate classifier. Therefore, we propose to utilize a novel method, based on hybridization of ICA, multi-objective evolutionary algorithms (MOEA), and rough sets (RS), that attempts to improve the effectiveness of signal decomposition techniques by providing them with "classification-awareness." Results The preliminary results described here are very promising and further investigation of other MOEAs and/or RS-based classification accuracy measures should be pursued. Even a quick visual analysis of those results can provide an interesting insight into the problem of neural activity analysis. Conclusion We present a methodology of classificatory decomposition of signals. One of the main advantages of our approach is the fact that rather than solely relying on often unrealistic assumptions about statistical independence of sources, components are generated in the light of a underlying classification problem itself. PMID:17118151

Choice, social interaction and addiction: the social roots of addictive preferences.

PubMed

Skog, Ole-Jørgen

2005-01-01

It is argued that addicts, as people in general, are forward-looking and that they try to make the best of what they have got. However, this does not imply that they are fully rational. Cognitive defects, instabilities in preferences, and irrationalities in the form of wishful thinking and dynamical inconsistency play an important role in addictive behaviours. These "imperfections" in people's rationality may not have very large consequences in the case of ordinary goods, but their effect can be dramatic in relation to addictive goods. In the first part of the paper, the rational addiction theory and the empirical evidence that have been presented in support of the theory is reviewed. Regarding the conventional tests of the theory by econometric methods, it is argued that the tests are misguided, both theoretically and methodologically. Furthermore, it is claimed that the definition of addiction implicit in the rational addiction theory is unrealistic, and that the theory makes unrealistic assumptions about human nature. Some empirical evidence for these claims is reviewed. It is concluded that although the theory has its virtues, it faces serious problems and must be rejected in its original form. Secondly, the socio-cultural embeddedness of addictive behaviours, and the social roots of individual preferences, are discussed. These issues are more or less ignored in rational addiction theory. It is argued that we cannot expect to obtain a proper understanding of many addictive phenomena, unless they are seen in their proper socio-cultural context.

Explaining the effect of event valence on unrealistic optimism.

PubMed

Gold, Ron S; Brown, Mark G

2009-05-01

People typically exhibit 'unrealistic optimism' (UO): they believe they have a lower chance of experiencing negative events and a higher chance of experiencing positive events than does the average person. UO has been found to be greater for negative than positive events. This 'valence effect' has been explained in terms of motivational processes. An alternative explanation is provided by the 'numerosity model', which views the valence effect simply as a by-product of a tendency for likelihood estimates pertaining to the average member of a group to increase with the size of the group. Predictions made by the numerosity model were tested in two studies. In each, UO for a single event was assessed. In Study 1 (n = 115 students), valence was manipulated by framing the event either negatively or positively, and participants estimated their own likelihood and that of the average student at their university. In Study 2 (n = 139 students), valence was again manipulated and participants again estimated their own likelihood; additionally, group size was manipulated by having participants estimate the likelihood of the average student in a small, medium-sized, or large group. In each study, the valence effect was found, but was due to an effect on estimates of own likelihood, not the average person's likelihood. In Study 2, valence did not interact with group size. The findings contradict the numerosity model, but are in accord with the motivational explanation. Implications for health education are discussed.

Evaluating an employee wellness program.

PubMed

Mukhopadhyay, Sankar; Wendel, Jeanne

2013-12-01

What criteria should be used to evaluate the impact of a new employee wellness program when the initial vendor contract expires? Published academic literature focuses on return-on-investment as the gold standard for wellness program evaluation, and a recent meta-analysis concludes that wellness programs can generate net savings after one or two years. In contrast, surveys indicate that fewer than half of these programs report net savings, and actuarial analysts argue that return-on-investment is an unrealistic metric for evaluating new programs. These analysts argue that evaluation of new programs should focus on contract management issues, such as the vendor's ability to: (i) recruit employees to participate and (ii) induce behavior change. We compute difference-in-difference propensity score matching estimates of the impact of a wellness program implemented by a mid-sized employer. The analysis includes one year of pre-implementation data and three years of post-implementation data. We find that the program successfully recruited a broad spectrum of employees to participate, and it successfully induced short-term behavior change, as manifested by increased preventive screening. However, the effects on health care expenditures are positive (but insignificant). If it is unrealistic to expect new programs to significantly reduce healthcare costs in a few years, then focusing on return-on-investment as the gold standard metric may lead to early termination of potentially useful wellness programs. Focusing short-term analysis of new programs on short-term measures may provide a more realistic evaluation strategy.

Safe and sensible preprocessing and baseline correction of pupil-size data.

PubMed

Mathôt, Sebastiaan; Fabius, Jasper; Van Heusden, Elle; Van der Stigchel, Stefan

2018-02-01

Measurement of pupil size (pupillometry) has recently gained renewed interest from psychologists, but there is little agreement on how pupil-size data is best analyzed. Here we focus on one aspect of pupillometric analyses: baseline correction, i.e., analyzing changes in pupil size relative to a baseline period. Baseline correction is useful in experiments that investigate the effect of some experimental manipulation on pupil size. In such experiments, baseline correction improves statistical power by taking into account random fluctuations in pupil size over time. However, we show that baseline correction can also distort data if unrealistically small pupil sizes are recorded during the baseline period, which can easily occur due to eye blinks, data loss, or other distortions. Divisive baseline correction (corrected pupil size = pupil size/baseline) is affected more strongly by such distortions than subtractive baseline correction (corrected pupil size = pupil size - baseline). We discuss the role of baseline correction as a part of preprocessing of pupillometric data, and make five recommendations: (1) before baseline correction, perform data preprocessing to mark missing and invalid data, but assume that some distortions will remain in the data; (2) use subtractive baseline correction; (3) visually compare your corrected and uncorrected data; (4) be wary of pupil-size effects that emerge faster than the latency of the pupillary response allows (within ±220 ms after the manipulation that induces the effect); and (5) remove trials on which baseline pupil size is unrealistically small (indicative of blinks and other distortions).

Comparison of convective clouds observed by spaceborne W-band radar and simulated by cloud-resolving atmospheric models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dodson, Jason B.

Deep convective clouds (DCCs) play an important role in regulating global climate through vertical mass flux, vertical water transport, and radiation. For general circulation models (GCMs) to simulate the global climate realistically, they must simulate DCCs realistically. GCMs have traditionally used cumulus parameterizations (CPs). Much recent research has shown that multiple persistent unrealistic behaviors in GCMs are related to limitations of CPs. Two alternatives to CPs exist: the global cloud-resolving model (GCRM), and the multiscale modeling framework (MMF). Both can directly simulate the coarser features of DCCs because of their multi-kilometer horizontal resolutions, and can simulate large-scale meteorological processes more realistically than GCMs. However, the question of realistic behavior of simulated DCCs remains. How closely do simulated DCCs resemble observed DCCs? In this study I examine the behavior of DCCs in the Nonhydrostatic Icosahedral Atmospheric Model (NICAM) and Superparameterized Community Atmospheric Model (SP-CAM), the latter with both single-moment and double-moment microphysics. I place particular emphasis on the relationship between cloud vertical structure and convective environment. I also emphasize the transition between shallow clouds and mature DCCs. The spatial domains used are the tropical oceans and the contiguous United States (CONUS), the latter of which produces frequent vigorous convection during the summer. CloudSat is used to observe DCCs, and A-Train and reanalysis data are used to represent the large-scale environment in which the clouds form. The CloudSat cloud mask and radar reflectivity profiles for CONUS cumuliform clouds (defined as clouds with a base within the planetary boundary layer) during boreal summer are first averaged and compared. Both NICAM and SP-CAM greatly underestimate the vertical growth of cumuliform clouds. Then they are sorted by three large-scale environmental variables: total preciptable water (TPW), surface air temperature (SAT), and 500hPa vertical velocity (W500), representing the dynamical and thermodynamical environment in which the clouds form. The sorted CloudSat profiles are then compared with NICAM and SP-CAM profiles simulated with the Quickbeam CloudSat simulator. Both models have considerable difficulty representing the relationship of SAT and clouds over CONUS. For TPW and W500, shallow clouds transition to DCCs at higher values than observed. This may be an indication of the models' inability to represent the formation of DCCs in marginal convective environments. NICAM develops tall DCCs in highly favorable environments, but SP-CAM appears to be incapable of developing tall DCCs in almost any environment. The use of double moment microphysics in SP-CAM improves the frequency of deep clouds and their relationship with TPW, but not SAT. Both models underpredict radar reflectivity in the upper cloud of mature DCCs. SP-CAM with single moment microphysics has a particularly unrealistic DCC reflectivity profile, but with double moment microphysics it improves substantially. SP-CAM with double-moment microphysics unexpectedly appears to weaken DCC updraft strength as TPW increases, but otherwise both NICAM and SP-CAM represent the environment-versus-DCC relationships fairly realistically.

Patients' expectations of asthma treatment.

PubMed

Mancuso, Carol A; Rincon, Melina; Robbins, Laura; Charlson, Mary E

2003-12-01

A multicomponent model has been developed to explain patients' unmet expectations of medical care. The model proposes that expectations are related to patients' personal experiences with illness, perceived vulnerability to disease, transmitted knowledge, and perceived severity of disease. The objective of this cross-sectional study was to determine whether this model can be applied to patients' unrealistic expectations of treatment outcomes, specifically expecting to be cured of asthma. In total, 230 patients observed in a primary care practice in New York City were interviewed in person with open-ended questions about their expectations of asthma treatment. Responses were analyzed with qualitative techniques to generate categories of expectations. Patients had a mean age of 41 +/- 11 years, 21% were white, 30% African American, 42% Latino, and 7% other groups. Major categories of expectations were generated from patients' responses and included symptom relief (expected by 52%), cure (36%), improved physical function (21%), and improved psychological well-being (15%). The category of expecting a cure was assessed with patients' responses to the following items representing components of the model: 1) resource utilization and medication requirements for asthma (representing severity of disease); 2) perceived quality of asthma care and satisfaction with care (representing past asthma experiences); 3) the Asthma Self-Efficacy Scale (representing perceived vulnerability to exacerbations); and 4) experiences of social network contacts with asthma and the Check Your Asthma IQ survey (representing transmitted knowledge). In bivariate analysis, patients who expected a cure were more likely to be Latino or Native American or Asian (p = 0.02), to have never required oral corticosteroids (p = 0.004), to be dissatisfied with the status of their asthma (p = 0.008), to know others who were limited by asthma (p = 0.03), to have worse Asthma Self-Efficacy Scale scores (p = 0.002), to have worse Check Your Asthma IQ scores (p = 0.04), and to currently be taking inhaled corticosteroids (p = 0.03). In multivariate analysis, worse asthma self-efficacy (p = 0.008), never having required oral corticosteroids (p = 0.005), and currently taking inhaled corticosteroids (p = 0.05) remained associated with expecting a cure. As a result of this study, we found that patients have multiple expectations of asthma treatment, including realistic expectations such as symptom relief and improved function, as well as unrealistic expectations, specifically to be cured of asthma. A multicomponent model of patient and disease characteristics was associated with this unrealistic expectation. These findings indicate that clinicians can intervene in diverse areas to foster realistic expectations of treatment outcomes among asthma patients.

Error and attack tolerance of complex networks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Albert, Réka; Jeong, Hawoong; Barabási, Albert-László

2000-07-01

Many complex systems display a surprising degree of tolerance against errors. For example, relatively simple organisms grow, persist and reproduce despite drastic pharmaceutical or environmental interventions, an error tolerance attributed to the robustness of the underlying metabolic network. Complex communication networks display a surprising degree of robustness: although key components regularly malfunction, local failures rarely lead to the loss of the global information-carrying ability of the network. The stability of these and other complex systems is often attributed to the redundant wiring of the functional web defined by the systems' components. Here we demonstrate that error tolerance is not shared by all redundant systems: it is displayed only by a class of inhomogeneously wired networks, called scale-free networks, which include the World-Wide Web, the Internet, social networks and cells. We find that such networks display an unexpected degree of robustness, the ability of their nodes to communicate being unaffected even by unrealistically high failure rates. However, error tolerance comes at a high price in that these networks are extremely vulnerable to attacks (that is, to the selection and removal of a few nodes that play a vital role in maintaining the network's connectivity). Such error tolerance and attack vulnerability are generic properties of communication networks.

Fullerene formation and annealing

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Mintmire, J.W.

1996-04-05

Why does the highly symmetric carbon cluster C{sub 60} form in such profusion under the right conditions? This question was first asked in 1985, when Kroto suggested that the predominance of the C{sub 60} carbon clusters observed in the molecular beam experiments could be explained by the truncated icosahedral (or soccer ball) form. The name given to this cluster, buckminsterfullerene, led to the use of the term fullerenes for the family of hollow-cage carbon clusters made up of even numbers of triply coordinated carbons arranged with 12 pentagonal rings and an almost arbitrary number of hexagonal rings. More than amore » decade later, we still lack a completely satisfying understanding of the fundamental chemistry that takes place during fullerene formation. Most current models for fullerene formation require a facile mechanism for ring rearrangement in the fullerene structure, but the simplest proposed mechanisms are believed to have unrealistically high activation barriers. In recent research calculations have suggested that atomic carbon in the reaction mixture could act as a catalyst and allow substantially lower activation barriers for fullerene annealing. This article discusses the background for this research and other adjunct research. 14 refs.« less

Is eradication of the pinewood nematode (Bursaphelenchus xylophilus) likely? An evaluation of current contingency plans.

PubMed

Okland, Bjørn; Skarpaas, Olav; Schroeder, Martin; Magnusson, Christer; Lindelöw, Ake; Thunes, Karl

2010-09-01

The pinewood nematode (PWN) is one of the worst tree-killing exotic pests in East-Asian countries. The first European record of establishment in Portugal in 1999 triggered extensive surveys and contingency plans for eradication in European countries, including immediate removal of large areas of conifer host trees. Using Norway as an example, we applied a simulation model to evaluate the chance of successful eradication of a hypothetical introduction by the current contingency plan in a northern area where wilting symptoms are not expected to occur. Despite a highly variable spread of nematode infestations in space and time, the probability of successful eradication in 20 years was consistently low (mean 0.035, SE 0.02). The low success did not change significantly by varying the biological parameters in sensitivity analyses (SA), probably due to the late detection of infestations by the survey (mean 14.3 years). SA revealed a strong influence of management parameters. However, a high probability of eradication required unrealistic measures: achieving an eradication probability of 0.99 in 20 years required 10,000 survey samples per year and a host tree removal radius of 8,000 m around each detection point. © 2010 Society for Risk Analysis.

HD271791: dynamical versus binary-supernova ejection scenario

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gvaramadze, V. V.

2009-05-01

The atmosphere of the extremely high-velocity (530-920kms-1) early B-type star HD271791 is enriched in α-process elements, which suggests that this star is a former secondary component of a massive tight binary system and that its surface was polluted by the nucleosynthetic products after the primary star exploded in a supernova. It was proposed that the (asymmetric) supernova explosion unbind the system and that the secondary star (HD271791) was released at its orbital velocity in the direction of Galactic rotation. In this Letter, we show that to explain the Galactic rest-frame velocity of HD271791 within the framework of the binary-supernova scenario, the stellar remnant of the supernova explosion (a <~10Msolar black hole) should receive an unrealistically large kick velocity of >=750-1200kms-1. We therefore consider the binary-supernova scenario as highly unlikely and instead propose that HD271791 attained its peculiar velocity in the course of a strong dynamical three- or four-body encounter in the dense core of the parent star cluster. Our proposal implies that by the moment of encounter HD271791 was a member of a massive post-supernova binary.

Could changes in the wheelchair delivery system improve safety?

PubMed Central

Kirby, R L; Coughlan, S G; Christie, M

1995-01-01

Despite emerging evidence about the high incidence and severity of wheelchair-related injuries, regulations governing wheelchair safety are almost nonexistent in Canada. The authors believe that, to improve wheelchair safety, a concerted effort by government, manufacturers, purchasing groups, users and clinicians is needed. Health Canada's Health Protection Branch should treat wheelchairs as medical devices (as defined in the Food and Drugs Act 1985) and improve its injury-reporting network. Manufacturers should give a higher priority to safety in wheelchair design, improve their educational materials and formalize postmarketing surveillance. Purchasing groups should try to ensure that they do not stifle innovation in wheelchair design by setting unrealistic reimbursement ceilings and should use their market power more effectively. Users should obtain their wheelchairs in specialized settings, heed safety warnings and make more effective use of litigation when such action is warranted. Clinicians should ensure that patients are equipped with the most appropriate wheelchair for their needs, that they are given adequate training in safe wheelchair use and that they understand the dangers involved. Rapid changes in wheelchair technology and emerging evidence about the high incidence and severity of injuries related to wheelchair use suggest that such changes are needed in the wheelchair delivery system. PMID:7489551

Role stressors and coping strategies among nurse managers.

PubMed

Udod, Sonia; Cummings, Greta G; Care, W Dean; Jenkins, Megan

2017-02-06

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to share preliminary evidence about nurse managers' (NMs) role stressors and coping strategies in acute health-care facilities in Western Canada. Design/methodology/approach A qualitative exploratory inquiry provides deeper insight into NMs' perceptions of their role stressors, coping strategies and factors and practices in the organizational context that facilitate and hinder their work. A purposeful sample of 17 NMs participated in this study. Data were collected through individual interviews and a focus group interview. Braun and Clarke's (2006) six phase approach to thematic analysis guided data analysis. Findings Evidence demonstrates that individual factors, organizational practices and structures affect NMs stress creating an evolving role with unrealistic expectations, responding to continuous organizational change, a fragmented ability to effectively process decisions because of work overload, shifting organizational priorities and being at risk for stress-related ill health. Practical implications These findings have implications for organizational support, intervention programs that enhance leadership approaches, address individual factors and work processes and redesigning the role in consideration of the role stress and work complexity affecting NMs health. Originality/value It is anticipated that health-care leaders would find these results concerning and inspire them to take action to support NMs to do meaningful work as a way to retain existing managers and attract front line nurses to positions of leadership.

Optimised in vitro applicable loads for the simulation of lateral bending in the lumbar spine.

PubMed

Dreischarf, Marcel; Rohlmann, Antonius; Bergmann, Georg; Zander, Thomas

2012-07-01

In in vitro studies of the lumbar spine simplified loading modes (compressive follower force, pure moment) are usually employed to simulate the standard load cases flexion-extension, axial rotation and lateral bending of the upper body. However, the magnitudes of these loads vary widely in the literature. Thus the results of current studies may lead to unrealistic values and are hardly comparable. It is still unknown which load magnitudes lead to a realistic simulation of maximum lateral bending. A validated finite element model of the lumbar spine was used in an optimisation study to determine which magnitudes of the compressive follower force and bending moment deliver results that fit best with averaged in vivo data. The best agreement with averaged in vivo measured data was found for a compressive follower force of 700 N and a lateral bending moment of 7.8 Nm. These results show that loading modes that differ strongly from the optimised one may not realistically simulate maximum lateral bending. The simplified but in vitro applicable loading cannot perfectly mimic the in vivo situation. However, the optimised magnitudes are those which agree best with averaged in vivo measured data. Its consequent application would lead to a better comparability of different investigations. Copyright © 2012 IPEM. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Discrete-State Stochastic Models of Calcium-Regulated Calcium Influx and Subspace Dynamics Are Not Well-Approximated by ODEs That Neglect Concentration Fluctuations

PubMed Central

Weinberg, Seth H.; Smith, Gregory D.

2012-01-01

Cardiac myocyte calcium signaling is often modeled using deterministic ordinary differential equations (ODEs) and mass-action kinetics. However, spatially restricted “domains” associated with calcium influx are small enough (e.g., 10−17 liters) that local signaling may involve 1–100 calcium ions. Is it appropriate to model the dynamics of subspace calcium using deterministic ODEs or, alternatively, do we require stochastic descriptions that account for the fundamentally discrete nature of these local calcium signals? To address this question, we constructed a minimal Markov model of a calcium-regulated calcium channel and associated subspace. We compared the expected value of fluctuating subspace calcium concentration (a result that accounts for the small subspace volume) with the corresponding deterministic model (an approximation that assumes large system size). When subspace calcium did not regulate calcium influx, the deterministic and stochastic descriptions agreed. However, when calcium binding altered channel activity in the model, the continuous deterministic description often deviated significantly from the discrete stochastic model, unless the subspace volume is unrealistically large and/or the kinetics of the calcium binding are sufficiently fast. This principle was also demonstrated using a physiologically realistic model of calmodulin regulation of L-type calcium channels introduced by Yue and coworkers. PMID:23509597

Regularity Aspects in Inverse Musculoskeletal Biomechanics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lund, Marie; Stâhl, Fredrik; Gulliksson, Mârten

2008-09-01

Inverse simulations of musculoskeletal models computes the internal forces such as muscle and joint reaction forces, which are hard to measure, using the more easily measured motion and external forces as input data. Because of the difficulties of measuring muscle forces and joint reactions, simulations are hard to validate. One way of reducing errors for the simulations is to ensure that the mathematical problem is well-posed. This paper presents a study of regularity aspects for an inverse simulation method, often called forward dynamics or dynamical optimization, that takes into account both measurement errors and muscle dynamics. Regularity is examined for a test problem around the optimum using the approximated quadratic problem. The results shows improved rank by including a regularization term in the objective that handles the mechanical over-determinancy. Using the 3-element Hill muscle model the chosen regularization term is the norm of the activation. To make the problem full-rank only the excitation bounds should be included in the constraints. However, this results in small negative values of the activation which indicates that muscles are pushing and not pulling, which is unrealistic but the error maybe small enough to be accepted for specific applications. These results are a start to ensure better results of inverse musculoskeletal simulations from a numerical point of view.

Quasistationary solutions of scalar fields around accreting black holes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sanchis-Gual, Nicolas; Degollado, Juan Carlos; Izquierdo, Paula; Font, José A.; Montero, Pedro J.

2016-08-01

Massive scalar fields can form long-lived configurations around black holes. These configurations, dubbed quasibound states, have been studied both in the linear and nonlinear regimes. In this paper, we show that quasibound states can form in a dynamical scenario in which the mass of the black hole grows significantly due to the capture of infalling matter. We solve the Klein-Gordon equation numerically in spherical symmetry, mimicking the evolution of the spacetime through a sequence of analytic Schwarzschild black hole solutions of increasing mass. It is found that the frequency of oscillation of the quasibound states decreases as the mass of the black hole increases. In addition, accretion leads to an increase of the exponential decay of the scalar field energy. We compare the black hole mass growth rates used in our study with estimates from observational surveys and extrapolate our results to values of the scalar field masses consistent with models that propose scalar fields as dark matter in the universe. We show that, even for unrealistically large mass accretion rates, quasibound states around accreting black holes can survive for cosmological time scales. Our results provide further support to the intriguing possibility of the existence of dark matter halos based on (ultralight) scalar fields surrounding supermassive black holes in galactic centers.

Impact of diffusion barriers to small cytotoxic molecules on the efficacy of immunotherapy in breast cancer.

PubMed

Das, Hiranmoy; Wang, Zhihui; Niazi, M Khalid Khan; Aggarwal, Reeva; Lu, Jingwei; Kanji, Suman; Das, Manjusri; Joseph, Matthew; Gurcan, Metin; Cristini, Vittorio

2013-01-01

Molecular-focused cancer therapies, e.g., molecularly targeted therapy and immunotherapy, so far demonstrate only limited efficacy in cancer patients. We hypothesize that underestimating the role of biophysical factors that impact the delivery of drugs or cytotoxic cells to the target sites (for associated preferential cytotoxicity or cell signaling modulation) may be responsible for the poor clinical outcome. Therefore, instead of focusing exclusively on the investigation of molecular mechanisms in cancer cells, convection-diffusion of cytotoxic molecules and migration of cancer-killing cells within tumor tissue should be taken into account to improve therapeutic effectiveness. To test this hypothesis, we have developed a mathematical model of the interstitial diffusion and uptake of small cytotoxic molecules secreted by T-cells, which is capable of predicting breast cancer growth inhibition as measured both in vitro and in vivo. Our analysis shows that diffusion barriers of cytotoxic molecules conspire with γδ T-cell scarcity in tissue to limit the inhibitory effects of γδ T-cells on cancer cells. This may increase the necessary ratios of γδ T-cells to cancer cells within tissue to unrealistic values for having an intended therapeutic effect, and decrease the effectiveness of the immunotherapeutic treatment.