Stalling Tropical Cyclones over the Atlantic Basin

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nielsen-Gammon, J. W.; Emanuel, K.

2017-12-01

Hurricane Harvey produced massive amounts of rain over southeast Texas and southwest Louisiana. Average storm total rainfall amounts over a 10,000 square mile (26,000 square km) area exceeded 30 inches (750 mm). An important aspect of the storm that contributed to the large rainfall totals was its unusual motion. The storm stalled shortly after making landfall, then moved back offshore before once again making landfall five days later. This storm motion permitted heavy rainfall to occur in the same general area for an extended period of time. The unusual nature of this event motivates an investigation into the characteristics and potential climate change influences on stalled tropical cyclones in the Atlantic basin using the HURDAT 2 storm track database for 1866-2016 and downscaled tropical cyclones driven by simulations of present and future climate. The motion of cyclones is quantified as the size of a circle circumscribing all storm locations during a given length of time. For a three-day period, Harvey remained inside a circle with a radius of 123 km. This ranks within the top 0.6% of slowest-moving historical storm instances. Among the 2% of slowest-moving storm instances prior to Harvey, only 13 involved storms that stalled near the continental United States coast, where they may have produced substantial rainfall onshore while tapping into marine moisture. Only two such storms stalled in the month of September, in contrast to 20 September stalls out of the 36 storms that stalled over the nearby open Atlantic. Just four of the stalled coastal storms were hurricanes, implying a return frequency for such storms of much less than once per decade. The synoptic setting of these storms is examined for common features, and historical and projected trends in occurrences of stalled storms near the coast and farther offshore are investigated.

Impacts of aerosol-monsoon interaction on rainfall and circulation over Northern India and the Himalaya Foothills

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lau, William K. M.; Kim, Kyu-Myong; Shi, Jainn-Jong; Matsui, T.; Chin, M.; Tan, Qian; Peters-Lidard, C.; Tao, W. K.

2017-09-01

The boreal summer of 2008 was unusual for the Indian monsoon, featuring exceptional heavy loading of dust aerosols over the Arabian Sea and northern-central India, near normal all-India rainfall, but excessive heavy rain, causing disastrous flooding in the Northern Indian Himalaya Foothills (NIHF) regions, accompanied by persistent drought conditions in central and southern India. Using the NASA Unified-physics Weather Research Forecast (NUWRF) model with fully interactive aerosol physics and dynamics, we carried out three sets of 7-day ensemble model forecast experiments: (1) control with no aerosol, (2) aerosol radiative effect only and (3) aerosol radiative and aerosol-cloud-microphysics effects, to study the impacts of aerosol-monsoon interactions on monsoon variability over the NIHF during the summer of 2008. Results show that aerosol-radiation interaction (ARI), i.e., dust aerosol transport, and dynamical feedback processes induced by aerosol-radiative heating, plays a key role in altering the large-scale monsoon circulation system, reflected by an increased north-south tropospheric temperature gradient, a northward shift of heavy monsoon rainfall, advancing the monsoon onset by 1-5 days over the HF, consistent with the EHP hypothesis (Lau et al. in Clim Dyn 26(7-8):855-864, 2006). Additionally, we found that dust aerosols, via the semi-direct effect, increase atmospheric stability, and cause the dissipation of a developing monsoon onset cyclone over northeastern India/northern Bay of Bengal. Eventually, in a matter of several days, ARI transforms the developing monsoon cyclone into meso-scale convective cells along the HF slopes. Aerosol-Cloud-microphysics Interaction (ACI) further enhances the ARI effect in invigorating the deep convection cells and speeding up the transformation processes. Results indicate that even in short-term (up to weekly) numerical forecasting of monsoon circulation and rainfall, effects of aerosol-monsoon interaction can be substantial and cannot be ignored.

From TRMM to GPM: How well can heavy rainfall be detected from space?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Prakash, Satya; Mitra, Ashis K.; Pai, D. S.; AghaKouchak, Amir

2016-02-01

In this study, we investigate the capabilities of the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) Multi-satellite Precipitation Analysis (TMPA) and the recently released Integrated Multi-satellitE Retrievals for GPM (IMERG) in detecting and estimating heavy rainfall across India. First, the study analyzes TMPA data products over a 17-year period (1998-2014). While TMPA and reference gauge-based observations show similar mean monthly variations of conditional heavy rainfall events, the multi-satellite product systematically overestimates its inter-annual variations. Categorical as well as volumetric skill scores reveal that TMPA over-detects heavy rainfall events (above 75th percentile of reference data), but it shows reasonable performance in capturing the volume of heavy rain across the country. An initial assessment of the GPM-based multi-satellite IMERG precipitation estimates for the southwest monsoon season shows notable improvements over TMPA in capturing heavy rainfall over India. The recently released IMERG shows promising results to help improve modeling of hydrological extremes (e.g., floods and landslides) using satellite observations.

Models are likely to underestimate increase in heavy rainfall in regions with high rainfall intensity

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Borodina, Aleksandra; Fischer, Erich M.; Knutti, Reto

2017-04-01

Model projections of heavy rainfall are uncertain. On timescales of few decades, internal variability plays an important role and therefore poses a challenge to detect robust model responses. We show that spatial aggregation across regions with intense heavy rainfall events, - defined as grid cells with high annual precipitation maxima (Rx1day), - allows to reduce the role of internal variability and thus to detect a robust signal during the historical period. This enables us to evaluate models with observational datasets and to constrain long-term projections of the intensification of heavy rainfall, i.e., to recalibrate full model ensemble consistent with observations resulting in narrower range of projections. In the regions of intense heavy rainfall, we found two present-day metrics that are related to a model's projection. The first metric is the observed relationship between the area-weighted mean of the annual precipitation maxima (Rx1day) and the global land temperatures. The second is the fraction of land exhibiting statistically significant relationships between local annual precipitation maxima (Rx1day) and global land temperatures over the historical period. The models that simulate high values in both metrics are those that are in better agreement with observations and show strong future intensification of heavy rainfall. This implies that changes in heavy rainfall are likely to be more intense than anticipated from the multi-model mean.

Significant Features of Warm Season Water Vapor Flux Related to Heavy Rainfall and Draught in Japan

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nishiyama, Koji; Iseri, Yoshihiko; Jinno, Kenji

2009-11-01

In this study, our objective is to reveal complicated relationships between spatial water vapor inflow patterns and heavy rainfall activities in Kyushu located in the western part of Japan, using the outcomes of pattern recognition of water vapor inflow, based on the Self-Organizing Map. Consequently, it could be confirmed that water vapor inflow patterns control the distribution and the frequency of heavy rainfall depending on the direction of their fluxes and the intensity of Precipitable water. Historically serious flood disasters in South Kyushu in 1993 were characterized by high frequency of the water vapor inflow patterns linking to heavy rainfall. On the other hand, severe draught in 1994 was characterized by inactive frontal activity that do not related to heavy rainfall.

Analysis of convection-permitting simulations for capturing heavy rainfall events over Myanmar Region

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Acierto, R. A. E.; Kawasaki, A.

2017-12-01

Perennial flooding due to heavy rainfall events causes strong impacts on the society and economy. With increasing pressures of rapid development and potential for climate change impacts, Myanmar experiences a rapid increase in disaster risk. Heavy rainfall hazard assessment is key on quantifying such disaster risk in both current and future conditions. Downscaling using Regional Climate Models (RCM) such as Weather Research and Forecast model have been used extensively for assessing such heavy rainfall events. However, usage of convective parameterizations can introduce large errors in simulating rainfall. Convective-permitting simulations have been used to deal with this problem by increasing the resolution of RCMs to 4km. This study focuses on the heavy rainfall events during the six-year (2010-2015) wet period season from May to September in Myanmar. The investigation primarily utilizes rain gauge observation for comparing downscaled heavy rainfall events in 4km resolution using ERA-Interim as boundary conditions using 12km-4km one-way nesting method. The study aims to provide basis for production of high-resolution climate projections over Myanmar in order to contribute for flood hazard and risk assessment.

Towards combining GPM and MFG observations to monitor near real time heavy precipitation at fine scale over India and nearby oceanic regions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mishra, Anoop; Rafiq, Mohammd

2017-12-01

This is the first attempt to merge highly accurate precipitation estimates from Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM) with gap free satellite observations from Meteosat to develop a regional rainfall monitoring algorithm to estimate heavy rainfall over India and nearby oceanic regions. Rainfall signature is derived from Meteosat observations and is co-located against rainfall from GPM to establish a relationship between rainfall and signature for various rainy seasons. This relationship can be used to monitor rainfall over India and nearby oceanic regions. Performance of this technique was tested by applying it to monitor heavy precipitation over India. It is reported that our algorithm is able to detect heavy rainfall. It is also reported that present algorithm overestimates rainfall areal spread as compared to rain gauge based rainfall product. This deficiency may arise from various factors including uncertainty caused by use of different sensors from different platforms (difference in viewing geometry from MFG and GPM), poor relationship between warm rain (light rain) and IR brightness temperature, and weak characterization of orographic rain from IR signature. We validated hourly rainfall estimated from the present approach with independent observations from GPM. We also validated daily rainfall from this approach with rain gauge based product from India Meteorological Department (IMD). Present technique shows a Correlation Coefficient (CC) of 0.76, a bias of -2.72 mm, a Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) of 10.82 mm, Probability of Detection (POD) of 0.74, False Alarm Ratio (FAR) of 0.34 and a Skill score of 0.36 with daily rainfall from rain gauge based product of IMD at 0.25° resolution. However, FAR reduces to 0.24 for heavy rainfall events. Validation results with rain gauge observations reveal that present technique outperforms available satellite based rainfall estimates for monitoring heavy rainfall over Indian region.

Measurements of Water Vapor Profiles with Compact DIAL in the Tokyo Metropolitan Area

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Abo, Makoto; Sakai, Tetsu; Le Hoai, Phong Pham; Shibata, Yasukuni; Nagasawa, Chikao

2018-04-01

In recent years, the frequency of occurrence of locally heavy rainfall that can cause extensive damages, has been increasing in Japan. For early prediction of heavy rainfall, it is useful to measure the water vapor vertical distribution upwind cumulus convection beforehand. For that purpose, we have been developing compact water vapor differential absorption lidar (DIAL). We show the results of the measurements with lidar in summer when the local heavy rainfall frequently occurs in Japan. We also show the preliminary result of the assimilation of the lidar data to the numerical model and impact on the heavy rainfall prediction.

Evaluation of Microphysics and Cumulus Schemes of WRF for Forecasting of Heavy Monsoon Rainfall over the Southeastern Hilly Region of Bangladesh

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hasan, Md Alfi; Islam, A. K. M. Saiful

2018-05-01

Accurate forecasting of heavy rainfall is crucial for the improvement of flood warning to prevent loss of life and property damage due to flash-flood-related landslides in the hilly region of Bangladesh. Forecasting heavy rainfall events is challenging where microphysics and cumulus parameterization schemes of Weather Research and Forecast (WRF) model play an important role. In this study, a comparison was made between observed and simulated rainfall using 19 different combinations of microphysics and cumulus schemes available in WRF over Bangladesh. Two severe rainfall events during 11th June 2007 and 24-27th June 2012, over the eastern hilly region of Bangladesh, were selected for performance evaluation using a number of indicators. A combination of the Stony Brook University microphysics scheme with Tiedtke cumulus scheme is found as the most suitable scheme for reproducing those events. Another combination of the single-moment 6-class microphysics scheme with New Grell 3D cumulus schemes also showed reasonable performance in forecasting heavy rainfall over this region. The sensitivity analysis confirms that cumulus schemes play a greater role than microphysics schemes for reproducing the heavy rainfall events using WRF.

Trends in rainfall and rainfall-related extremes in the east coast of peninsular Malaysia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mayowa, Olaniya Olusegun; Pour, Sahar Hadi; Shahid, Shamsuddin; Mohsenipour, Morteza; Harun, Sobri Bin; Heryansyah, Arien; Ismail, Tarmizi

2015-12-01

The coastlines have been identified as the most vulnerable regions with respect to hydrological hazards as a result of climate change and variability. The east of peninsular Malaysia is not an exception for this, considering the evidence of heavy rainfall resulting in floods as an annual phenomenon and also water scarcity due to long dry spells in the region. This study examines recent trends in rainfall and rainfall- related extremes such as, maximum daily rainfall, number of rainy days, average rainfall intensity, heavy rainfall days, extreme rainfall days, and precipitation concentration index in the east coast of peninsular Malaysia. Recent 40 years (1971-2010) rainfall records from 54 stations along the east coast of peninsular Malaysia have been analyzed using the non-parametric Mann-Kendall test and the Sen's slope method. The Monte Carlo simulation technique has been used to determine the field significance of the regional trends. The results showed that there was a substantial increase in the annual rainfall as well as the rainfall during the monsoon period. Also, there was an increase in the number of heavy rainfall days during the past four decades.

Analysis on the Critical Rainfall Value For Predicting Large Scale Landslides Caused by Heavy Rainfall In Taiwan.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tsai, Kuang-Jung; Chiang, Jie-Lun; Lee, Ming-Hsi; Chen, Yie-Ruey

2017-04-01

Analysis on the Critical Rainfall Value For Predicting Large Scale Landslides Caused by Heavy Rainfall In Taiwan. Kuang-Jung Tsai 1, Jie-Lun Chiang 2,Ming-Hsi Lee 2, Yie-Ruey Chen 1, 1Department of Land Management and Development, Chang Jung Christian Universityt, Tainan, Taiwan. 2Department of Soil and Water Conservation, National Pingtung University of Science and Technology, Pingtung, Taiwan. ABSTRACT The accumulated rainfall amount was recorded more than 2,900mm that were brought by Morakot typhoon in August, 2009 within continuous 3 days. Very serious landslides, and sediment related disasters were induced by this heavy rainfall event. The satellite image analysis project conducted by Soil and Water Conservation Bureau after Morakot event indicated that more than 10,904 sites of landslide with total sliding area of 18,113ha were found by this project. At the same time, all severe sediment related disaster areas are also characterized based on their disaster type, scale, topography, major bedrock formations and geologic structures during the period of extremely heavy rainfall events occurred at the southern Taiwan. Characteristics and mechanism of large scale landslide are collected on the basis of the field investigation technology integrated with GPS/GIS/RS technique. In order to decrease the risk of large scale landslides on slope land, the strategy of slope land conservation, and critical rainfall database should be set up and executed as soon as possible. Meanwhile, study on the establishment of critical rainfall value used for predicting large scale landslides induced by heavy rainfall become an important issue which was seriously concerned by the government and all people live in Taiwan. The mechanism of large scale landslide, rainfall frequency analysis ,sediment budge estimation and river hydraulic analysis under the condition of extremely climate change during the past 10 years would be seriously concerned and recognized as a required issue by this research. Hopefully, all results developed from this research can be used as a warning system for Predicting Large Scale Landslides in the southern Taiwan. Keywords：Heavy Rainfall, Large Scale, landslides, Critical Rainfall Value

Neotectonics of the Vajont dam site

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mantovani, Franco; Vita-Finzi, Claudio

2003-08-01

The disastrous Vajont landslide (NE Italy) of 9 October 1963 is generally thought to have occurred on an existing failure surface. Reassessment of the morphological and structural evidence suggests that movement was on a normal fault plane which had juxtaposed Cretaceous limestone and highly fractured rock debris, thus rendering the dam site unusually susceptible to massive sliding. The proposed fault is consistent in strike with the regional lineament pattern. Although movement was triggered by the combined effects of heavy rainfall and changes in reservoir level, there is circumstantial evidence that seismicity played a contributory part in mobilising the slide by increasing pore pressure at the base of the slide as well as by any associated shaking.

Impact of a Single Unusually Large Rainfall Event on the Level of Risk Used for Infrastructure Design

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dhakal, N.; Jain, S.

2013-12-01

Rare and unusually large events (such as hurricanes and floods) can create unusual and interesting trends in statistics. Generalized Extreme Value (GEV) distribution is usually used to statistically describe extreme rainfall events. A number of the recent studies have shown that the frequency of extreme rainfall events has increased over the last century and as a result, there has been change in parameters of GEV distribution with the time (non-stationary). But what impact does a single unusually large rainfall event (e.g., hurricane Irene) have on the GEV parameters and consequently on the level of risks or the return periods used in designing the civil infrastructures? In other words, if such a large event occurs today, how will it influence the level of risks (estimated based on past rainfall records) for the civil infrastructures? To answer these questions, we performed sensitivity analysis of the distribution parameters of GEV as well as the return periods to unusually large outlier events. The long-term precipitation records over the period of 1981-2010 from 12 USHCN stations across the state of Maine were used for analysis. For most of the stations, addition of each outlier event caused an increase in the shape parameter with a huge decrease on the corresponding return period. This is a key consideration for time-varying engineering design. These isolated extreme weather events should simultaneously be considered with traditional statistical methodology related to extreme events while designing civil infrastructures (such as dams, bridges, and culverts). Such analysis is also useful in understanding the statistical uncertainty of projecting extreme events into future.

Simulation of localized heavy precipitation in South Korea on 20 June 2014: sensitivity test of integration time-step size and an effect of topographic resolution using WRF model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Roh, Joon-Woo; Jee, Joon-Bum; Lim, A.-Young; Choi, Young-Jean

2015-04-01

Korean warm-season rainfall, accounting for about three-fourths of the annual precipitation, is primarily caused by Changma front, which is a kind of the East Asian summer monsoon, and localized heavy rainfall with convective instability. Various physical mechanisms potentially exert influences on heavy precipitation over South Korea. Representatively, the middle latitude and subtropical weather fronts, associated with a quasi-stationary moisture convergence zone among varying air masses, make up one of the main rain-bearing synoptic scale systems. Localized heavy rainfall events in South Korea generally arise from mesoscale convective systems embedded in these synoptic scale disturbances along the Changma front or convective instabilities resulted from unstable air mass including the direct or indirect effect of typhoons. In recent years, torrential rainfalls, which are more than 30mm/hour of precipitation amount, in warm-season has increased threefold in Seoul, which is a metropolitan city in South Korea. In order to investigate multiple potential causes of warm-season localized heavy precipitation in South Korea, a localized heavy precipitation case took place on 20 June 2014 at Seoul. This case was mainly seen to be caused by short-wave trough, which is associated with baroclinic instability in the northwest of Korea, and a thermal low, which has high moist and warm air through analysis. This structure showed convective scale torrential rain was embedded in the dynamic and in the thermodynamic structures. In addition to, a sensitivity of rainfall amount and maximum rainfall location to the integration time-step sizes was investigated in the simulations of a localized heavy precipitation case using Weather Research and Forecasting model. The simulation of time-step sizes of 9-27s corresponding to a horizontal resolution of 4.5km and 1.5km varied slightly difference of the maximum rainfall amount. However, the sensitivity of spatial patterns and temporal variations in rainfall were relatively small for the time-step sizes. The effect of topography was also important in the localized heavy precipitation simulation.

Characteristics of Heavy Summer Rainfall in Southwestern Taiwan in Relation to Orographic Effects

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Chen, Ching-Sen; Chen, Wan-Chin; Tao, Wei-Kuo

2004-01-01

On the windward side of southwestern Taiwan, about a quarter to a half of all rainfall during mid-July through August from 1994 to 2000 came from convective systems embedded in the southwesterly monsoon flow. k this study, the causes of two heavy rainfall events (daily rainfall exceeding 100 mm day over at least three rainfall stations) observed over the slopes and/or lowlands of southwestern Taiwan were examined. Data from European Center for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts /Tropical Ocean- Global Atmosphere (EC/TOGA) analyses, the rainfall stations of the Automatic Rainfall and Meteorological Telemetry System (ARMTS) and the conventional surface stations over Taiwan, and the simulation results from a regional-scale numerical model were used to accomplish the objectives. In one event (393 mm day on 9 August 1999), heavy rainfall was observed over the windward slopes of southern Taiwan in a potentially unstable environment with very humid air around 850 hPa. The extreme accumulation was simulated and attributed to orographic lifting effects. No preexisting convection drifted in from the Taiwan Strait into western Taiwan.

Influences of Appalachian orography on heavy rainfall and rainfall variability associated with the passage of hurricane Isabel by ensemble simulations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Oldaker, Guy; Liu, Liping; Lin, Yuh-Lang

2017-12-01

This study focuses on the heavy rainfall event associated with hurricane Isabel's (2003) passage over the Appalachian mountains of the eastern United States. Specifically, an ensemble consisting of two groups of simulations using the Weather Research and Forecasting model (WRF), with and without topography, is performed to investigate the orographic influences on heavy rainfall and rainfall variability. In general, the simulated ensemble mean with full terrain is able to reproduce the key observed 24-h rainfall amount and distribution, while the flat-terrain mean lacks in this respect. In fact, 30-h rainfall amounts are reduced by 75% with the removal of topography. Rainfall variability is also significantly increased with the presence of orography. Further analysis shows that the complex interaction between the hurricane and terrain along with contributions from varied microphysics, cumulus parametrization, and planetary boundary layer schemes have a pronounced effect on rainfall and rainfall variability. This study follows closely with a previous study, but for a different TC case of Isabel (2003). It is an important sensitivity test for a different TC in a very different environment. This study reveals that the rainfall variability behaves similarly, even with different settings of the environment.

Prediction of heavy rainfall over Chennai Metropolitan City, Tamil Nadu, India: Impact of microphysical parameterization schemes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Singh, K. S.; Bonthu, Subbareddy; Purvaja, R.; Robin, R. S.; Kannan, B. A. M.; Ramesh, R.

2018-04-01

This study attempts to investigate the real-time prediction of a heavy rainfall event over the Chennai Metropolitan City, Tamil Nadu, India that occurred on 01 December 2015 using Advanced Research Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF-ARW) model. The study evaluates the impact of six microphysical (Lin, WSM6, Goddard, Thompson, Morrison and WDM6) parameterization schemes of the model on prediction of heavy rainfall event. In addition, model sensitivity has also been evaluated with six Planetary Boundary Layer (PBL) and two Land Surface Model (LSM) schemes. Model forecast was carried out using nested domain and the impact of model horizontal grid resolutions were assessed at 9 km, 6 km and 3 km. Analysis of the synoptic features using National Center for Environmental Prediction Global Forecast System (NCEP-GFS) analysis data revealed strong upper-level divergence and high moisture content at lower level were favorable for the occurrence of heavy rainfall event over the northeast coast of Tamil Nadu. The study signified that forecasted rainfall was more sensitive to the microphysics and PBL schemes compared to the LSM schemes. The model provided better forecast of the heavy rainfall event using the logical combination of Goddard microphysics, YSU PBL and Noah LSM schemes, and it was mostly attributed to timely initiation and development of the convective system. The forecast with different horizontal resolutions using cumulus parameterization indicated that the rainfall prediction was not well represented at 9 km and 6 km. The forecast with 3 km horizontal resolution provided better prediction in terms of timely initiation and development of the event. The study highlights that forecast of heavy rainfall events using a high-resolution mesoscale model with suitable representations of physical parameterization schemes are useful for disaster management and planning to minimize the potential loss of life and property.

Real-time Extremely Heavy Rainfall Forecast and Warning over Rajasthan During the Monsoon Season (2016)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Srivastava, Kuldeep; Pradhan, D.

2018-01-01

Two events of extremely heavy rainfall occurred over Rajasthan during 7-9 August 2016 and 19-21 August 2016. Due to these events, flooding occurred over east Rajasthan and affected the normal life of people. A low-pressure area lying over northwest Madhya Pradesh on 7 August 2016 moved north-westward and lay near east Rajasthan and adjoining northwest Madhya Pradesh on 8 and 9 August 2016. Under the influence of this low-pressure system, Chittorgarh district and adjoining areas of Rajasthan received extremely heavy rainfall of 23 cm till 0300 UTC of 8 August 2016 and 34 cm on 0300 UTC of 9 August 2016. A deep depression lying over extreme south Uttar Pradesh and adjoining northeast Madhya Pradesh on 19 August 2016 moved westward and gradually weakened into a depression on 20 August 2016. It further weakened into a low-pressure area and lay over east Rajasthan on 21 and 22 August 2016. Under the influence of this deep depression, Jhalawar received 31 cm and Baran received 25 cm on 19 August. On 20 August 2016, extremely heavy rainfall (EHR) occurred over Banswara (23.5 cm), Pratapgarh (23.2 cm) and Chittorgarh (22.7 cm) districts. In this paper, the performance of the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) global forecast system (GFS) model for real-time forecast and warning of heavy to very heavy/EHR that occurred over Rajasthan during 7-9 August 2016 and 19-21 August 2016 has been examined. The NCEP GFS forecast rainfall (Day 1, Day 2 and Day 3) was compared with the corresponding observed gridded rainfall. Based on the predictions given by the NCEP GFS model for heavy rainfall and with their application in real-time rainfall forecast and warnings issued by the Regional Weather Forecasting Center in New Delhi, it is concluded that the model has predicted the wind pattern and EHR event associated with the low-pressure system very accurately on day 1 and day 2 forecasts and with small errors in intensity and space for day 3.

The impact of meteorology on the occurrence of waterborne outbreaks of vero cytotoxin-producing Escherichia coli (VTEC): a logistic regression approach.

PubMed

O'Dwyer, Jean; Morris Downes, Margaret; Adley, Catherine C

2016-02-01

This study analyses the relationship between meteorological phenomena and outbreaks of waterborne-transmitted vero cytotoxin-producing Escherichia coli (VTEC) in the Republic of Ireland over an 8-year period (2005-2012). Data pertaining to the notification of waterborne VTEC outbreaks were extracted from the Computerised Infectious Disease Reporting system, which is administered through the national Health Protection Surveillance Centre as part of the Health Service Executive. Rainfall and temperature data were obtained from the national meteorological office and categorised as cumulative rainfall, heavy rainfall events in the previous 7 days, and mean temperature. Regression analysis was performed using logistic regression (LR) analysis. The LR model was significant (p < 0.001), with all independent variables: cumulative rainfall, heavy rainfall and mean temperature making a statistically significant contribution to the model. The study has found that rainfall, particularly heavy rainfall in the preceding 7 days of an outbreak, is a strong statistical indicator of a waterborne outbreak and that temperature also impacts waterborne VTEC outbreak occurrence.

Evaluation of atmospheric thermodynamics and dynamics during heavy-rainfall and no-rainfall events in the metropolitan area of Rio de Janeiro, Brazil

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

da Silva, Fabricio Polifke; Rotunno Filho, Otto Corrêa; Sampaio, Rafael João; Dragaud, Ian Cunha D'amato Viana; de Araújo, Afonso Augusto Magalhães; Justi da Silva, Maria Gertrudes Alvarez; Pires, Gisele Dornelles

2017-12-01

Local prediction of thunderstorms is one of the most challenging tasks in weather forecasting due to their high spatiotemporal variability. An improved understanding of such meteorological phenomena, therefore, requires high-frequency measurements along the vertical profile of the atmosphere of interest. In this context, the evaluation of thermodynamic and dynamic parameters obtained from radiosondes to identify atmospheric conditions favorable to thunderstorm and heavy-rainfall development emerges as a valuable tool for investigations of thunderstorms. In this context, four radiosondes were launched to collect a data set for the area of interest at the sub-daily scale (12 UTC, 16 UTC, 18 UTC, and 00 UTC). The collection period encompassed two dates—November 29 and December 12, 2016—chosen specifically due to the existence of heavy-rainfall warnings in the forecast for the Metropolitan Area of Rio de Janeiro, Brazil ("MARJ") for those days. However, heavy rainfall was registered only for December 12 and not for November 29 (which led us to explore this contrast with the announced rainfall forecasts). Sub-daily radiosonde data showed a clear decrease in atmospheric instability in the early afternoon on November 29. On the other hand, an opposite scenario occurred on December 12, which saw an expressive increase in thermodynamic instability during the day. The meteorological modeling approach used also revealed that the vertical coupling of low-level moisture flux convergence centers and upper-level mass flux divergence centers worked as a dynamic trigger for the thunderstorm and heavy-rainfall developments that took place on December 12, 2016.

Cloud structure evolution of heavy rain events from the East-West Pacific Ocean: a combined global observation analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sekaranom, A. B.; Nurjani, E.; Pujiastuti, I.

2018-04-01

Heavy rain events are often associated with flood hazards as one of the most devastating events across the globe. It is therefore essential to identify the evolution of heavy rainfall cloud structures, primarily from global satellite observation, as a tool to provide better disaster early warning systems. To identify the mechanism of heavy rainfall systems and its relationship with cloud development, especially over The Pacific Ocean, we aim to study the westward evolution of the convective systems over this area. Several datasets from Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM), CloudSat GEOPROF product, and ECMWF-reanalysis (ERA) interim were utilized to characterize the evolution. Geolocation and orbital time-lag analysis of the three different datasets for more than 8 years (2006-2014) could provide information related to the evolution of cloud structures associated with heavy rain events. In the first step, a heavy rainfall database was generated from TRMM. The CloudSat coordinate and time position were then matched with TRMM coordinate and time position. All of the processes were programatically conducted in fortran programming language. The result shows a transition between East and West Pacific ocean for TMI data.

Impact of Assimilation on Heavy Rainfall Simulations Using WRF Model: Sensitivity of Assimilation Results to Background Error Statistics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rakesh, V.; Kantharao, B.

2017-03-01

Data assimilation is considered as one of the effective tools for improving forecast skill of mesoscale models. However, for optimum utilization and effective assimilation of observations, many factors need to be taken into account while designing data assimilation methodology. One of the critical components that determines the amount and propagation observation information into the analysis, is model background error statistics (BES). The objective of this study is to quantify how BES in data assimilation impacts on simulation of heavy rainfall events over a southern state in India, Karnataka. Simulations of 40 heavy rainfall events were carried out using Weather Research and Forecasting Model with and without data assimilation. The assimilation experiments were conducted using global and regional BES while the experiment with no assimilation was used as the baseline for assessing the impact of data assimilation. The simulated rainfall is verified against high-resolution rain-gage observations over Karnataka. Statistical evaluation using several accuracy and skill measures shows that data assimilation has improved the heavy rainfall simulation. Our results showed that the experiment using regional BES outperformed the one which used global BES. Critical thermo-dynamic variables conducive for heavy rainfall like convective available potential energy simulated using regional BES is more realistic compared to global BES. It is pointed out that these results have important practical implications in design of forecast platforms while decision-making during extreme weather events

Preface

USGS Publications Warehouse

Baum, Rex L.; Godt, Jonathan W.; Highland, Lynn M.

2008-01-01

The idea for Landslides and Engineering Geology of the Seattle, Washington, Areagrew out of a major landslide disaster that occurred in the Puget Sound region at the beginning of 1997. Unusually heavy snowfall in late December 1996 followed by warm, intense rainfall on 31 December through 2 January 1997 produced hundreds of damaging landslides in communities surrounding Puget Sound. This disaster resulted in significant efforts of the local geotechnical community and local governments to repair the damage and to mitigate the effects of future landslides. The magnitude of the disaster attracted the attention of the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), which was just beginning a large multihazards project for Puget Sound. The USGS immediately added a regional study of landslides to that project. Soon a partnership formed between the City of Seattle and the USGS to assess landslide hazards of Seattle.

The study of Merydunal and Zonal Index and its relationships with Cyclone Gonu

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ezzatian, Victoria

2010-05-01

Distinguish the integrated natural disaster management is basic, also there happens rarely during 100 years. Cyclone Gonu, an unusually strong tropical cyclone, developed in the eastern part of the Arabian Sea on June 1st. The cyclone made landfall in Oman on the 6th with maximum sustained winds near 148 km/hr. A few days prior to landfall, Gonu had intensified to a powerful super cyclonic storm with maximum sustained winds near 260 km/hr on the 5th, becoming the first documented super cyclone in the Arabian Sea and tied for the strongest cyclone in the North Indian Ocean. After making landfall in Oman, Gonu moved through the Gulf of Oman making a second landfall in Iran. Tropical Cyclone Gonu affected more than 20,000 people and was responsible for 49 fatalities and 27 missing people in Oman. Gonu brought heavy rainfall which caused floods and landslides. Meanwhile in Iran 5 fatalities were reported and 9 people remain missing. Tropical cyclones as strong as Gonu are rare in the Arabian Sea. Severe thunderstorms, associated with an outer band of the tropical cyclone Yemyin , produced heavy rains and winds during June 23-25. The storms produced heavy rains which caused floodings and destroyed thousands of homes .Tropical Cyclone Yemyin developed as a depression in the Bay of Bengal on the 21st and made landfall in India's southern state on the 22nd. Yemyin brought heavy rain in the southern parts of India, leaving over 254 mm of rain. After crossing over India, Yemyin moved into the Arabian Sea and began moving towards the northwest. On June 26, the cyclone intensified and maximum sustained winds reached 93 km/hr. The cyclone was responsible for at least 21 fatalities in the Baluchistan province. Meanwhile in Afghanistan, Yemyin produced heavy rainfall which prompted floods that were responsible for 56 deaths and left thousands of people homeless . Because of these happenings we decided surveying the synoptic patterns in this month. Key words: Tropical cyclones, Tropical Cyclone Gonu, merridional index, zonal index .

Hurricane Agnes rainfall and floods, June-July 1972

USGS Publications Warehouse

Bailey, James F.; Patterson, James Lee; Paulhus, Joseph Louis Hornore

1975-01-01

Hurricane Agnes originated in the Caribbean Sea region in mid-June. Circulation barely reached hurricane intensity for a brief period in the Gulf of Mexico. The storm crossed the Florida Panhandle coastline on June 19, 1972, and followed an unusually extended overland trajectory combining with an extratropical system to bring very heavy rain from the Carolinas northward to New York. This torrential rain followed the abnormally wet May weather in the Middle Atlantic States and set the stage for the subsequent major flooding. The record-breaking floods occurred in the Middle Atlantic States in late June and early July 1972. Many streams in the affected area experienced peak discharges several times the previous maxima of record. Estimated recurrence intervals of peak flows at many gaging stations on major rivers and their tributaries exceeded 100 years. The suspended-sediment concentration and load of most flooded streams were also unusually high. The widespread flooding from this storm caused Agnes to be called the most destructive hurricane in United States history, claiming 117 lives and causing damage estimated at $3.1 billion in 12 States. Damage was particularly high in New York, Pennsylvania, Maryland, and Virginia. The detailed life history of Hurricane Agnes, including the tropical depression and tropical storm stages, is traced. Associated rainfalls are analyzed and compared with climatologic recurrence values. These are followed by a detailed description of the flood and streamflows of each affected basin. A summary of peak stages and discharges and comparison data for previous floods at 989 stations are presented. Deaths and flood damage estimates are compiled.

Tropical Cyclones Feed More Heavy Rain in a Warmer Climate

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lau, K.-M.; Zhou, Y. P.; Wu, H.-T.

2007-01-01

The possible linkage of tropical cyclones (TC) to global warming is a hotly debated scientific topic, with immense societal impacts. Most of the debate has been focused on the issue of uncertainty in the use of non-research quality data for long-term trend analyses, especially with regard to TC intensity provided by TC forecasting centers. On the other hand, it is well known that TCs are associated with heavy rain during the processes of genesis and intensification, and that there are growing evidences that rainfall characteristics (not total rainfall) are most likely to be affected by global warming. Yet, satellite rainfall data have not been exploited in any recent studies of linkage between tropical cyclones (TC) and global warming. This is mostly due to the large uncertainties associated with detection of long-term trend in satellite rainfall estimates over the ocean. This problem, as we demonstrate in this paper, can be alleviated by examining rainfall distribution, rather than rainfall total. This paper is the first to use research-quality, satellite-derived rainfall from TRMM and GPCP over the tropical oceans to estimate shift in rainfall distribution during the TC season, and its relationships with TCs, and sea surface temperature (SST) in the two major ocean basins, the northern Atlantic and the northern Pacific for 1979-2005. From the rainfall distribution, we derive the TC contributions to rainfall in various extreme rainfall categories as a function to time. Our results show a definitive trend indicating that TCs are contributing increasingly to heavier rain events, i.e., intense TC's are more frequent in the last 27 years. The TC contribution to top 5% heavy rain has nearly doubled in the last two decades in the North Atlantic, and has increased by about 10% in the North Pacific. The different rate of increase in TC contribution to heavy rain may be related to the different rates of different rate of expansion of the warm pool (SST >2S0 C) area in the two oceans.

Hydroclimatology of the 2008 Midwest floods

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Budikova, D.; Coleman, J. S. M.; Strope, S. A.; Austin, A.

2010-12-01

The late spring/early summer flooding that occurred in the American Midwest between May and June 2008 resulted from a combination of large-scale atmospheric circulation patterns that supported a steady influx of moisture into the area. A low pressure system centered over the central-western United States steered a strong jet and associated storms along its eastern edge from the west to southwest and an anomalously strong Great Plains Low Level Jet brought continuous warm and moist air into the area from the Gulf of Mexico into the area. We examine and quantify here the impact these circulation patterns had on the hydroclimatology of the Midwest highlighting the magnitude, frequency, geographic distribution, and temporal evolution of precipitation that ultimately magnified the flooding. Historical precipitation records were used to assess the regional rainfall characteristics at various geographic and time scales. Five distinct hydroclimatic characteristics contributed to the definition of the 2008 flood including persistent high surface soil moisture conditions prior to flooding exasperated by anomalously high rainfall, extreme rainfall totals covering extensive areas, increased frequency of shorter-term, smaller-magnitude events, persistent multiday heavy precipitation events, and extreme flood-producing rain storms. The major flooding lasted for approximately 24 days and most greatly impacted the state of Iowa, southern Wisconsin, and central Indiana. Its occurrence during the May-June period makes the event especially unusual for this region.

Determining the precipitable water vapor thresholds under different rainfall strengths in Taiwan

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yeh, Ta-Kang; Shih, Hsuan-Chang; Wang, Chuan-Sheng; Choy, Suelynn; Chen, Chieh-Hung; Hong, Jing-Shan

2018-02-01

Precipitable Water Vapor (PWV) plays an important role for weather forecasting. It is helpful in evaluating the changes of the weather system via observing the distribution of water vapor. The ability of calculating PWV from Global Positioning System (GPS) signals is useful to understand the special weather phenomenon. In this study, 95 ground-based GPS and rainfall stations in Taiwan were utilized from 2006 to 2012 to analyze the relationship between PWV and rainfall. The PWV data were classified into four classes (no, light, moderate and heavy rainfall), and the vertical gradients of the PWV were obtained and the variations of the PWV were analyzed. The results indicated that as the GPS elevation increased every 100 m, the PWV values decreased by 9.5 mm, 11.0 mm, 12.2 mm and 12.3 mm during the no, light, moderate and heavy rainfall conditions, respectively. After applying correction using the vertical gradients mentioned above, the average PWV thresholds were 41.8 mm, 52.9 mm, 62.5 mm and 64.4 mm under the no, light, moderate and heavy rainfall conditions, respectively. This study offers another type of empirical threshold to assist the rainfall prediction and can be used to distinguish the rainfall features between different areas in Taiwan.

Scaling laws for testing of high lift airfoils under heavy rainfall

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Bilanin, A. J.

1985-01-01

The results of studies regarding the effect of rainfall about aircraft are briefly reviewed. It is found that performance penalties on airfoils have been identified in subscale tests. For this reason, it is of great importance that scaling laws be dveloped to aid in the extrapolation of these data to fullscale. The present investigation represents an attempt to develop scaling laws for testing subscale airfoils under heavy rain conditions. Attention is given to rain statistics, airfoil operation in heavy rain, scaling laws, thermodynamics of condensation and/or evaporation, rainfall and airfoil scaling, aspects of splash back, film thickness, rivulets, and flap slot blockage. It is concluded that the extrapolation of airfoil performance data taken at subscale under simulated heavy rain conditions to fullscale must be undertaken with caution.

Study of atmospheric condition during the heavy rain event in Bojonegoro using weather research and forecasting (WRF) model: case study 9 February 2017

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Saragih, I. J. A.; Meygatama, A. G.; Sugihartati, F. M.; Sidauruk, M.; Mulsandi, A.

2018-03-01

During 2016, there are frequent heavy rains in the Bojonegoro region, one of which is rain on 9 February 2016. The occurrence of heavy rainfall can cause the floods that inundate the settlements, rice fields, roads, and public facilities. This makes it important to analyze the atmospheric conditions during the heavy rainfall events in Bojonegoro. One of the analytical methods that can be used is using WRF-Advanced Research WRF (WRF-ARW) model. This study was conducted by comparing the rain analysis from WRF-ARW model with the Himawari-8 satellite imagery. The data used are Final Analysis (FNL) data for the WRF-ARW model and infrared (IR) channel for Himawari-8 satellite imagery. The data are processed into the time-series images and then analyzed descriptively. The meteorological parameters selected to be analyzed are relative humidity, vortices, divergences, air stability index, and precipitation. These parameters are expected to indicate the existence of a convective activity in Bojonegoro during the heavy rainfall event. The Himawari-8 satellite imagery shows that there is a cluster of convective clouds in Bojonegoro during the heavy rainfall event. The lowest value of the cloud top temperature indicates that the cluster of convective clouds is a cluster of Cumulonimbus cloud (CB).

Effects of rainfall on oil droplet size and the dispersion of spilled oil with application to Douglas Channel, British Columbia, Canada.

PubMed

Wu, Yongsheng; Hannah, Charles G; Thupaki, Pramod; Mo, Ruping; Law, Brent

2017-01-15

Raindrops falling on the sea surface produce turbulence. The present study examined the influence of rain-induced turbulence on oil droplet size and dispersion of oil spills in Douglas Channel in British Columbia, Canada using hourly atmospheric data in 2011-2013. We examined three types of oils: a light oil (Cold Lake Diluent - CLD), and two heavy oils (Cold Lake Blend - CLB and Access Western Blend - AWB). We found that the turbulent energy dissipation rate produced by rainfalls is comparable to what is produced by wind-induced wave breaking in our study area. With the use of chemical dispersants, our results indicate that a heavy rainfall (rain rate>20mmh -1 ) can produce the maximum droplet size of 300μm for light oil and 1000μm for heavy oils, and it can disperse the light oil with fraction of 22-45% and the heavy oils of 8-13%, respectively. Heavy rainfalls could be a factor for the fate of oil spills in Douglas Channel, especially for a spill of light oil and the use of chemical dispersants. Crown Copyright © 2016. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Changes in the Behavior of Heavy Rainfall in the Southern Brazil

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Basso, Raviel; Allasia, Daniel; Tassi, Rutineia

2017-04-01

Heavy rainfalls are associated with several economic and environmental damages mainly in urbanized areas. Their analisys depends on the availability of a dense rainfall station's network that is absent or inaccessible in Brazil, especially for sub-daily information. This study compares the Intensity-Duration-Frequency (IDF) data presented by Pfafstetter (1957) and later reanalyzed by Torrico (1974), against the most recent IDF information in Southern Brazil (comprising the States of Rio Grande do Sul, Santa Catarina and Paraná). This IDFs's collection was obtained from many sources ranging from national and local symposia, municipalities publications manuals to books, resulting in a database of more than a hundred of IDFs equations. The rainfall heights with several durations (1h, 4h, 12h, and 24h) obtained from older (until 1955's) and newer (after 1970's) IDFs were interpolated by ordinary kriging using GIS tools. The interpolated rainfall from these different periods was compared side-by-side allowing the determination of the percentual change between them. With the exception of Florianópolis region (NE of the Santa Catarina State), the newer IDFs showed higher precipitations than observed in pre-1955's data. This indicates an increase of heavy rainfall in practically the whole area, with some exceptions in the South and Northern coastal regions, in agreement with some climate change forecast models. It was also observed a more pronounced increase of sub-daily rainfall. For example, in some places, the newer data show that almost 70% of the amount of 24 hours rainfall occurs in just one hour of rainfall, against less than 40% observed in the data from the first half of the 20th century. This result alerts not only for the necessity of storwater drainage design's review but, especially, for the establishment of standardized heavy rainfall information procedures taking into account the observed time series trend.

Climatological studies on precipitation features and large-scale atmospheric fields on the heavy rainfall days in the eastern part of Japan from the Baiu to midsummer season

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Matsumoto, Kengo; Kato, Kuranoshin; Otani, Kazuo

2017-04-01

In East Asia the significant subtropical frontal zone called the Meiyu (in China) / Baiu (in Japan) appears in early summer (just before the midsummer) and the huge rainfall is brought due to the frequent appearance of the "heavy rainfall days" (referred to as HRDs hereafter) mainly in that western part. On the other hand, large-scale fields around the front in eastern Japan is rather different from that in western Japan but the total precipitation in the eastern Japan is still considerable compared to that in the other midlatitude regions. Thus, it is also interesting to examine how the rainfall characteristics and large-scale atmospheric fields on HRDs (with more than 50 mm/day) in the eastern Japan in the mature stage of the Baiu season (16 June 15 July), together with those in midsummer (1 31 August). Based on such scientific background, further analyses were performed in this study mainly with the daily and the hourly precipitation data and the NCEP/NCAR re-analysis date from 1971 to 2010, succeeding to our previous results (e.g., EGU2015). As reported at EGU2014 and 2015, about half of HRDs at Tokyo (eastern Japan) were related to the typhoon even in the Baiu season. Interestingly, half of HRDs were characterized by the large contribution of moderate rain less than 10 mm/h. While, the precipitation on HRDs at Tokyo in midsummer was mainly brought by the intense rainfall with more than 10 mm/h, in association with the typhoons. In the present study, we examined the composite meridional structure of the rainfall area along 140E. In the pattern only associated with a typhoons in the Baiu season (Pattern A), the heavy rainfall area (more than 50 mm/day) with large contribution of the intense rain (stronger than 10 mm/h) showed rather wide meridional extension. The area was characterized by the duration of the intermittent enhancement of the rainfall. In the pattern associated with a typhoon and a front (Pattern B), while the contribution ratio of the rainfall more than 10mm/h was large in the southern half of the heavy rainfall area, moderate rain with less than 10 mm/h contributed greatly to the total rainfall in the northern half. In Patter B, that heavy rainfall area was located just in the area with strong low-level warm advection around the Baiu front to the east of the typhoon. The warm advection near the heavy rainfall area was also found in Pattern A, the heavy rainfall occurred just on the southwest of the large advection. It is noted that, although the very warm humid air can intrude northward by the strong S-ly wind to the east of the typhoon in both Pattern A and B, the low-level baroclinicity around the eastern Japan was stronger in Pattern B. In midsummer, the similar situations to while the "Pattern B"-like situation was not seen. This might be greatly reflected by the seasonal change in the southern boundary of the Okhotsk air mass from the Baiu to midsummer and we will also examine that in the future.

The association between rainfall rate and occurrence of an enterovirus epidemic due to a contaminated well.

PubMed

Jean, J-S; Guo, H-R; Chen, S-H; Liu, C-C; Chang, W-T; Yang, Y-J; Huang, M-C

2006-12-01

To determine the association between rainfall rate and occurrence of enterovirus infection related to contamination of drinking water. One fatality case and three cases of severe illness were observed during the enterovirus epidemic in a village in southern Taiwan from 16 September to 3 October 1998. Groundwater samples were collected from the public well in the village after heavy rainfall to test for enterovirus using the reverse transcription-polymerase chain reaction (RT-PCR) assay. The RT-PCR assay detected the enterovirus in the groundwater sample collected on 26 September 1998. The logistic regression model also revealed a statistically significant association between the rainfall rate and the observation of cases of enterovirus infection. According to the fitted logistic regression model, the probability of detecting cases of enterovirus infection was greater than 50% at rainfall rates >31 mm h(-1). The higher the rainfall rate, the higher the probability of enterovirus epidemic. Contamination of drinking water by the enterovirus may lead to epidemics that cause deaths and severe illness, and such contamination may be caused by heavy rainfall. The major finding in this study is that the enterovirus could be flushed to groundwater in an unconfined aquifer after a heavy rainfall. This work allows for a warning level so that an action can be taken to minimize future outbreaks and so protect public health.

Assessment of the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model for simulation of extreme rainfall events in the upper Ganga Basin

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chawla, Ila; Osuri, Krishna K.; Mujumdar, Pradeep P.; Niyogi, Dev

2018-02-01

Reliable estimates of extreme rainfall events are necessary for an accurate prediction of floods. Most of the global rainfall products are available at a coarse resolution, rendering them less desirable for extreme rainfall analysis. Therefore, regional mesoscale models such as the advanced research version of the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model are often used to provide rainfall estimates at fine grid spacing. Modelling heavy rainfall events is an enduring challenge, as such events depend on multi-scale interactions, and the model configurations such as grid spacing, physical parameterization and initialization. With this background, the WRF model is implemented in this study to investigate the impact of different processes on extreme rainfall simulation, by considering a representative event that occurred during 15-18 June 2013 over the Ganga Basin in India, which is located at the foothills of the Himalayas. This event is simulated with ensembles involving four different microphysics (MP), two cumulus (CU) parameterizations, two planetary boundary layers (PBLs) and two land surface physics options, as well as different resolutions (grid spacing) within the WRF model. The simulated rainfall is evaluated against the observations from 18 rain gauges and the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission Multi-Satellite Precipitation Analysis (TMPA) 3B42RT version 7 data. From the analysis, it should be noted that the choice of MP scheme influences the spatial pattern of rainfall, while the choice of PBL and CU parameterizations influences the magnitude of rainfall in the model simulations. Further, the WRF run with Goddard MP, Mellor-Yamada-Janjic PBL and Betts-Miller-Janjic CU scheme is found to perform best in simulating this heavy rain event. The selected configuration is evaluated for several heavy to extremely heavy rainfall events that occurred across different months of the monsoon season in the region. The model performance improved through incorporation of detailed land surface processes involving prognostic soil moisture evolution in Noah scheme compared to the simple Slab model. To analyse the effect of model grid spacing, two sets of downscaling ratios - (i) 1 : 3, global to regional (G2R) scale and (ii) 1 : 9, global to convection-permitting scale (G2C) - are employed. Results indicate that a higher downscaling ratio (G2C) causes higher variability and consequently large errors in the simulations. Therefore, G2R is adopted as a suitable choice for simulating heavy rainfall event in the present case study. Further, the WRF-simulated rainfall is found to exhibit less bias when compared with the NCEP FiNaL (FNL) reanalysis data.

Method of Evaluating the Life Cycle Cost of Small Earth Dams Considering the Risk of Heavy Rainfall and Selection Method of the Optimum Countermeasure

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hori, Toshikazu; Mohri, Yoshiyuki; Matsushima, Kenichi; Ariyoshi, Mitsuru

In recent years the increase in the number of heavy rainfall occurrences such as through unpredictable cloudbursts have resulted in the safety of the embankments of small earth dams needing to be improved. However, the severe financial condition of the government and local autonomous bodies necessitate the cost of improving them to be reduced. This study concerns the development of a method of evaluating the life cycle cost of small earth dams considered to pose a risk and in order to improve the safety of the downstream areas of small earth dams at minimal cost. Use of a safety evaluation method that is based on a combination of runoff analysis, saturated and unsaturated seepage analysis, and slope stability analysis enables the probability of a dam breach and its life cycle cost with the risk of heavy rainfall taken into account to be calculated. Moreover, use of the life cycle cost evaluation method will lead to the development of a technique for selecting the method of the optimal improvement or countermeasures against heavy rainfall.

Modulation of Heavy Rainfall in the Middle East and North Africa by Madden-Julian Oscillation Using High Resolution Atmospheric General Circulation Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Deng, L.; Stenchikov, G. L.; McCabe, M. F.; Bangalath, H. K.

2014-12-01

Recently, the modulation of subtropical rainfall by the dominant tropical intraseasonal signal of the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO), has been explored through the discussion of the MJO-convection-induced Kelvin and Rossby wave related teleconnection patterns. Our study focuses on characterizing the modulation of heavy rainfall in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region by the MJO, using the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL) global High Resolution Atmospheric Model (HIRAM) simulations (25-km; 1979-2012) and a combination of available atmospheric products from satellite, in-situ and reanalysis data. The observed Hadley Centre Global Sea Ice and Sea Surface Temperature (HadISST) and the simulated SST from GFDL's global coupled carbon-climate Earth System Models (ESM2M) are employed in HIRAM to investigate the sensitivity of the simulated heavy rainfall and MJO to SST. The future trend of the extreme rainfalls and their links to the MJO response to climate change are examined using HIRAM simulations of 2012-2050 with the RCP4.5 and RCP 8.5 scenarios to advance the possibility of characterization and forecasting of future extreme rainfall events in the MENA region.

[Variation Characteristics and Sources of Heavy Metals in an Urban Karst Groundwater System during Rainfall Event].

PubMed

Ren, Kun; Yang, Ping-heng; Jiang, Ze-li; Wang, Zun-bo; Shi, Yang; Wang, Feng-kang; Li, Xiao-chun

2015-04-01

The groundwater discharge and heavy metal concentrations (Mn, Pb, Cu and As) at the outlet of Nanshan Laolongdong karst subterranean river, located at the urban region in Chongqing, were observed during the rainfall events. Analysis of flow and concentrations curves was employed to study their responses to the rainfall events and explore the internal structure of karst hydrological system. Principal component analysis (PCA) and measurements were used to identify the sources of heavy metals during rainfall. The result showed that the discharge and concentrations of the heavy metals responded promptly to the rainfall event. The variation characteristics of flow indicated that Laolongdong subterranean river system belonged to a karst hydrological system including fractures together with conduits. Urban surface runoff containing large amounts of Mn, Pb and Cu went directly to subterranean river via sinkholes, shafts and karst windows. As a result, the peak concentrations of contaminants (Mn, Pb and Cu) flowed faster than those of discharge. The major sources of water pollution were derived from urban surface runoff, soil and water loss. Cave dripwater and rainwater could also bring a certain amount of Mn, Pb and As into the subterranean river. Urban construction in karst areas needs scientific and rational design, perfect facilities and well-educated population to prevent groundwater pollution from the source.

Variability of extreme weather events over the equatorial East Africa, a case study of rainfall in Kenya and Uganda

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ongoma, Victor; Chen, Haishan; Omony, George William

2018-01-01

This study investigates the variability of extreme rainfall events over East Africa (EA), using indices from the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) Expert Team on Climate Change Detection and Indices (ETCCDI). The analysis was based on observed daily rainfall from 23 weather stations, with length varying within 1961 and 2010. The indices considered are: wet days ( R ≥1 mm), annual total precipitation in wet days (PRCPTOT), simple daily intensity index (SDII), heavy precipitation days ( R ≥ 10 mm), very heavy precipitation days ( R ≥ 20 mm), and severe precipitation ( R ≥ 50 mm). The non-parametric Mann-Kendall statistical analysis was carried out to identify trends in the data. Temporal precipitation distribution was different from station to station. Almost all indices considered are decreasing with time. The analysis shows that the PRCPTOT, very heavy precipitation, and severe precipitation are generally declining insignificantly at 5 % significant level. The PRCPTOT is evidently decreasing over Arid and Semi-Arid Land (ASAL) as compared to other parts of EA. The number of days that recorded heavy rainfall is generally decreasing but starts to rise in the last decade although the changes are insignificant. Both PRCPTOT and heavy precipitation show a recovery in trend starting in the 1990s. The SDII shows a reduction in most areas, especially the in ASAL. The changes give a possible indication of the ongoing climate variability and change which modify the rainfall regime of EA. The results form a basis for further research, utilizing longer datasets over the entire region to reduce the generalizations made herein. Continuous monitoring of extreme events in EA is critical, given that rainfall is projected to increase in the twenty-first century.

Heavy rainfall in Mediterranean cyclones. Part I: contribution of deep convection and warm conveyor belt

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Flaounas, Emmanouil; Kotroni, Vassiliki; Lagouvardos, Konstantinos; Gray, Suzanne L.; Rysman, Jean-François; Claud, Chantal

2018-04-01

In this study, we provide an insight to the role of deep convection (DC) and the warm conveyor belt (WCB) as leading processes to Mediterranean cyclones' heavy rainfall. To this end, we use reanalysis data, lighting and satellite observations to quantify the relative contribution of DC and the WCB to cyclone rainfall, as well as to analyse the spatial and temporal variability of these processes with respect to the cyclone centre and life cycle. Results for the period 2005-2015 show that the relationship between cyclone rainfall and intensity has high variability and demonstrate that even intense cyclones may produce low rainfall amounts. However, when considering rainfall averages for cyclone intensity bins, a linear relationship was found. We focus on the 500 most intense tracked cyclones (responsible for about 40-50% of the total 11-year Mediterranean rainfall) and distinguish between the ones producing high and low rainfall amounts. DC and the WCB are found to be the main cause of rainfall for the former (producing up to 70% of cyclone rainfall), while, for the latter, DC and the WCB play a secondary role (producing up to 50% of rainfall). Further analysis showed that rainfall due to DC tends to occur close to the cyclones' centre and to their eastern sides, while the WCBs tend to produce rainfall towards the northeast. In fact, about 30% of rainfall produced by DC overlaps with rainfall produced by WCBs but this represents only about 8% of rainfall produced by WCBs. This suggests that a considerable percentage of DC is associated with embedded convection in WCBs. Finally, DC was found to be able to produce higher rain rates than WCBs, exceeding 50 mm in 3-h accumulated rainfall compared to a maximum of the order of 40 mm for WCBs. Our results demonstrate in a climatological framework the relationship between cyclone intensity and processes that lead to heavy rainfall, one of the most prominent environmental risks in the Mediterranean. Therefore, we set perspectives for a deeper analysis of the favourable atmospheric conditions that yield high impact weather.

The northward shift of Meiyu rain belt and its possible association with rainfall intensity changes and the Pacific-Japan pattern

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gao, Qingjiu; Sun, Yuting; You, Qinglong

2016-12-01

The meridional location change of Meiyu rain belt and its relationship with the rainfall intensity and circulation background changes for the period 1958-2009 are examined using daily rainfall datasets from 756 stations in China, the 6-h ERA-Interim reanalyses, CRU monthly temperature and daily outgoing long-wave radiation (OLR) data from the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA). The results indicate that the Meiyu rain belt experienced a northward shift in the late 1990s in response to global warming. Moreover, the intensity of interannual and day-to-day variability of rainfall within Meiyu period has been increasing in the warming climate. The amplification of the variability within Meiyu period over the northern Yangtze-Huai River Valley (YHRV) is much larger than that of the southern YHRV. The large difference in the trends of variance within the Meiyu period between these two regions induces a spatial varying for different rainfall categories in terms of intensity. More significant positive trends in heavy and extreme heavy rainfall occur over northern YHRV compared with southern YHRV, which is a crucial indicator of changes in the rain band, despite the observation of an increase in heavy and very heavy rain events and a decrease in weak events throughout the entire YHRV. A composite of the atmospheric circulation indicates that intense northward horizontal transport and the convergence of water vapor fluxes are the immediate causes of the rain band shift. Besides, through forcing a northward extended convection over the tropics, the Pacific-Japan (P-J) pattern induces a northward expansion of western Pacific Subtropical High, leading to intensified convergence and enhanced rainfall over Northern YHRV.

Response mechanism of post-earthquake slopes under heavy rainfall

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Qiu, Hong-zhi; Kong, Ji-ming; Wang, Ren-chao; Cui, Yun; Huang, Sen-wang

2017-07-01

This paper uses the catastrophic landslide that occurred in Zhongxing Town, Dujiangyan City, as an example to study the formation mechanism of landslides induced by heavy rainfall in the post-Wenchuan earthquake area. The deformation characteristics of a slope under seismic loading were investigated via a shaking table test. The results show that a large number of cracks formed in the slope due to the tensile and shear forces of the vibrations, and most of the cracks had angles of approximately 45° with respect to the horizontal. A series of flume tests were performed to show how the duration and intensity of rainfall influence the responses of the shaken and non-shaken slopes. Wetting fronts were recorded under different rainfall intensities, and the depth of rainfall infiltration was greater in the shaken slope than in the non-shaken slope because the former experienced a greater extreme rainfall intensity under the same early rainfall and rainfall duration conditions. At the beginning of the rainfall infiltration experiment, the pore water pressure in the slope was negative, and settling occurred at the top of the slope. With increasing rainfall, the pore water pressure changed from negative to positive, and cracks were observed on the back surface of the slope and the shear outlet of the landslide on the front of the slope. The shaken slope was more susceptible to crack formation than the non-shaken slope under the same rainfall conditions. A comparison of the responses of the shaken and non-shaken slopes under heavy rainfall revealed that cracks formed by earthquakes provided channels for infiltration. Soil particles in the cracks of slopes were washed away, and the pore water pressure increased rapidly, especially the transient pore water pressure in the slope caused by short-term concentrated rainfall which decreased rock strength and slope stability.

Three-dimensional circulation structures leading to heavy summer rainfall over central North China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sun, Wei; Yu, Rucong; Li, Jian; Yuan, Weihua

2016-04-01

Using daily and hourly rain gauge records and Japanese 25 year reanalysis data over 30 years, this work reveals two major circulation structures leading to heavy summer rainfall events in central North China (CNC), and further analyzes the effects of the circulations on these rainfall events. One circulation structure has an extensive upper tropospheric warm anomaly (UTWA) covering North China (NC). By strengthening the upper anticyclonic anomaly and lower southerly flows around NC, the UTWA plays a positive role in forming upper level divergence and lower level moisture convergence. As a result, the warm anomalous circulation has a solid relationship with large-scale, long-duration rainfall events with a diurnal peak around midnight to early morning. The other circulation structure has an upper tropospheric cold anomaly (UTCA) located in the upper stream of NC. Contributed to by the UTCA, a cold trough appears in the upper stream of NC and an unstable configuration with upper (lower) cold (warm) anomalies forms around CNC. Consequently, CNC is covered by strong instability and high convective energy, and the cold anomalous circulation is closely connected with local, short-duration rainfall events concentrated from late afternoon to early nighttime. The close connections between circulation structures and typical rainfall events are confirmed by two independent converse analysis processes: from circulations to rainfall characteristics, and from typical rainfall events to circulations. The results presented in this work indicate that the upper tropospheric temperature has significant influences on heavy rainfall, and thus more attention should be paid to the upper tropospheric temperature in future analyses.

Large-scale atmospheric conditions associated with heavy rainfall episodes in Southeast Brazil

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lima, Kellen Carla; Satyamurty, Prakki; Fernández, Júlio Pablo Reyes

2010-07-01

Heavy rainfall events in austral summer are responsible for almost all the natural disasters in Southeast Brazil. They are mostly associated with two types of atmospheric perturbations: Cold Front (53%) and the South Atlantic Convergence Zone (47%). The important question of what synoptic characteristics distinguish a heavy rainfall event (HRE) from a normal rainfall event (NRE) is addressed in this study. Here, the evolutions of such characteristics are identified through the anomalies with respect to climatology of the composite fields of atmospheric variables. The anomalies associated with HRE are significantly more intense than those associated with NRE in all fundamental atmospheric variables such as outgoing long-wave radiation, sea-level pressure, 500-hPa geopotential, lower and upper tropospheric winds. The moisture flux convergence over Southeast Brazil in the HRE composites is 60% larger than in the NRE composites. The energetics calculations for the HRE that occurred in the beginning of February 1988 strongly suggest that the barotropic instability played an important role in the intensification of the perturbation. These results, especially the intensities of the wind, pressure anomalies, and the moisture convergence are useful for the meteorologists of the Southeast Brazil for forecasting heavy precipitation.

Forecasting of monsoon heavy rains: challenges in NWP

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sharma, Kuldeep; Ashrit, Raghavendra; Iyengar, Gopal; Bhatla, R.; Rajagopal, E. N.

2016-05-01

Last decade has seen a tremendous improvement in the forecasting skill of numerical weather prediction (NWP) models. This is attributed to increased sophistication in NWP models, which resolve complex physical processes, advanced data assimilation, increased grid resolution and satellite observations. However, prediction of heavy rains is still a challenge since the models exhibit large error in amounts as well as spatial and temporal distribution. Two state-of-art NWP models have been investigated over the Indian monsoon region to assess their ability in predicting the heavy rainfall events. The unified model operational at National Center for Medium Range Weather Forecasting (NCUM) and the unified model operational at the Australian Bureau of Meteorology (Australian Community Climate and Earth-System Simulator -- Global (ACCESS-G)) are used in this study. The recent (JJAS 2015) Indian monsoon season witnessed 6 depressions and 2 cyclonic storms which resulted in heavy rains and flooding. The CRA method of verification allows the decomposition of forecast errors in terms of error in the rainfall volume, pattern and location. The case by case study using CRA technique shows that contribution to the rainfall errors come from pattern and displacement is large while contribution due to error in predicted rainfall volume is least.

Convective and microphysics parameterization impact on simulating heavy rainfall in Semarang (case study on February 12th, 2015)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Faridatussafura, Nurzaka; Wandala, Agie

2018-05-01

The meteorological model WRF-ARW version 3.8.1 is used for simulating the heavy rainfall in Semarang that occurred on February 12th, 2015. Two different convective schemes and two different microphysics scheme in a nested configuration were chosen. The sensitivity of those schemes in capturing the extreme weather event has been tested. GFS data were used for the initial and boundary condition. Verification on the twenty-four hours accumulated rainfall using GSMaPsatellite data shows that Kain-Fritsch convective scheme and Lin microphysics scheme is the best combination scheme among the others. The combination also gives the highest success ratio value in placing high intensity rainfall area. Based on the ROC diagram, KF-Lin shows the best performance in detecting high intensity rainfall. However, the combination still has high bias value.

A pair of new moisture-dynamic diagnostic parameters for heavy rain location

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yuan, Kai; Zhu, Zhiwei; Li, Ming

2018-06-01

In this study, the regional persistent heavy rain process occurred in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River valley from 30 June 2016 to 7 July 2016 is analyzed. We find that the pure dynamic parameters [e.g., vorticity ( V) and divergence ( D)] and two-dimensional moisture-dynamic parameters [e.g., moist vorticity ( MV), moist divergence ( MD)] have difficulty in capturing the rainfall location during such a critical process. Given the poor performance of these traditional parameters, a pair of new parameters [namely, one-dimensional moist vorticity ( ODMV) and one-dimensional moist divergence ( ODMD)] based on low-level jet is proposed for diagnosing heavy rain location. The results show that (1) ODMV and ODMD have better relations with rain belt in terms of spatial distribution. Precipitation occurs in positive (negative) region of ODMV ( ODMD), and heavy rainfall accurately locates in the positive (negative) center of ODMV ( ODMD); (2) ODMV and ODMD also have good correlation with the precipitation in terms of temporal variation (significant at the 99% confidence level). When ODMV ( ODMD) is in strong positive (negative) phase, precipitation is large, and vice versa; (3) the threat score of ODMV and ODMD for the areal-mean rainfall is improved by 119% and 16%, respectively, compared to V/ D and MV/ MD. It is anticipated that the proposed new parameters would facilitate the skills of diagnosing and forecasting the heavy rainfall.

Heavy rainfall increases nestling mortality of an Arctic top predator: experimental evidence and long-term trend in peregrine falcons.

PubMed

Anctil, Alexandre; Franke, Alastair; Bêty, Joël

2014-03-01

Although animal population dynamics have often been correlated with fluctuations in precipitation, causal relationships have rarely been demonstrated in wild birds. We combined nest observations with a field experiment to investigate the direct effect of rainfall on survival of peregrine falcon (Falco peregrinus) nestlings in the Canadian Arctic. We then used historical data to evaluate if recent changes in the precipitation regime could explain the long-term decline of falcon annual productivity. Rainfall directly caused more than one-third of the recorded nestling mortalities. Juveniles were especially affected by heavy rainstorms (≥8 mm/day). Nestlings sheltered from rainfall by a nest box had significantly higher survival rates. We found that the increase in the frequency of heavy rain over the last three decades is likely an important factor explaining the recent decline in falcon nestling survival rates, and hence the decrease in annual breeding productivity of the population. Our study is among the first experimental demonstrations of the direct link between rainfall and survival in wild birds, and clearly indicates that top arctic predators can be significantly impacted by changes in precipitation regime.

Leptospirosis following a major flood in Central Queensland, Australia.

PubMed

Smith, J K G; Young, M M; Wilson, K L; Craig, S B

2013-03-01

Throughout December 2010 and January 2011, Queensland experienced widespread flooding due to unusually protracted and heavy rainfalls. In mid-January 2011, four individuals from a small community in Central Queensland were hospitalized with leptospirosis. A further five cases were subsequently identified from around Central Queensland, bringing the total to nine. Microscopic agglutination testing found that serovar Arborea (Leptospira borgpetersenii serovar Arborea) was presumptively responsible for leptospirosis in seven of nine confirmed cases. Serovars Hardjo and Australis were identified in samples from two remaining cases. All cases had exposure to flood water. No single exposure source was identified. This is the first reported outbreak of leptospirosis in Central Queensland and the first report of leptospirosis cases associated with flood water inundation in Queensland. Public health authorities should continue to promote awareness of leptospirosis in flood-affected populations. Healthcare providers must maintain a high level of suspicion for leptospirosis during and after flood events.

Impact of Rainfall on Multilane Roundabout Flowrate Contraction

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

PARKSHIR, Amir; BEN-EDIGBE, Johnnie

2017-08-01

In this study, roundabouts at two sites in the Malaysia were investigated under rainy and dry weather conditions. Two automatic traffic counters per roundabout arm as well as two rain gauge stations were used to collect data at each surveyed site. Nearly one million vehicles were investigated at four sites. Vehicle volume, speeds and headways for entry and circulating flows were collected continuously at each roundabout about arm for six weeks between November 2013 and January 2014. Empirical regression technique and gap-acceptance models were modified and used to analyze roundabout capacity. Good fits to the data were obtained; the results also fit models developed in other countries. It was assumed that entry capacity depends on the geometric characteristics of the roundabout, particularly the diameter of the outside circle of the intersection. It was also postulated that geometric characteristics determine the speed of vehicles around the central island and, therefore, have an impact on the gap-acceptance process and consequently the capacity. Only off-peak traffic data per light, moderate or heavy rainfall were analysed. Peak traffic data were not used because of the presence of peak traffic flow. Passenger car equivalent values being an instrument of conversion from traffic volume to flow were modified. Results show that, average entry capacity loss is about 22.6% under light rainfall, about 18.1% under moderate rainfall and about 5.6% under heavy rainfall. Significant entry capacity loss would result from rainfall irrespective of their intensity. It can be postulated that entry capacity loss under heavy rainfall is lowest because the advantage enjoyed by circulating flow would be greatly reduced with increased rainfall intensity. The paper concluded that rainfall has significant impact of flowrate contraction at roundabouts.

Heavy rainfall and risk of infectious intestinal diseases in the most populous city in Vietnam.

PubMed

Phung, Dung; Chu, Cordia; Rutherford, Shannon; Nguyen, Huong Lien Thi; Luong, Mai Anh; Do, Cuong Manh; Huang, Cunrui

2017-02-15

The association between heavy rainfall and infectious intestinal diseases (IID) has not been well described and little research has been conducted in developing countries. This study examines the association between heavy rainfall and hospital admissions for IID in Ho Chi Minh City, the most populous city in Vietnam. An interrupted time-series method was used to examine the effect of each individual heavy rainfall event (HRE) on IID. The percentage changes in post-HRE level and trends of IID were estimated for 30days following each HRE. Then a random-effect meta-analysis was used to quantify the pooled estimate of effect sizes of all HREs on IID. The pooled estimates were calculated over a 21day lag period. The effects of a HRE on IID varied across individual HREs. The pooled estimates indicate that the levels of IID following a HRE increased from 7.3% to 13.5% for lags from 0 to 21days, however statistically significant increases were only observed for lags from 4 to 6days (13.5%, 95%CI: 1.4-25.4; 13.3%, 95%CI: 1.5-25.0; and 12.9%, 95%CI: 1.6-24.1 respectively). An average decrease of 0.11% (95%CI: -0.55-0.33) per day was observed for the post-HRE trend. This finding has important implications for the projected impacts on residents living in this city which is highly vulnerable to increased heavy rainfall associated with climate change. Adaptation and intervention programs should be developed to prevent this additional burden of disease and to protect residents from the adverse impacts of extreme weather events. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Impacts of traffic and rainfall characteristics on heavy metals build-up and wash-off from urban roads.

PubMed

Mahbub, Parvez; Ayoko, Godwin A; Goonetilleke, Ashantha; Egodawatta, Prasanna; Kokot, Serge

2010-12-01

An investigation into the effects of changes in urban traffic characteristics due to rapid urbanisation and the predicted changes in rainfall characteristics due to climate change on the build-up and wash-off of heavy metals was carried out in Gold Coast, Australia. The study sites encompassed three different urban land uses. Nine heavy metals commonly associated with traffic emissions were selected. The results were interpreted using multivariate data analysis and decision making tools, such as principal component analysis (PCA), fuzzy clustering (FC), PROMETHEE, and GAIA. Initial analyses established high, low, and moderate traffic scenarios as well as low, low to moderate, moderate, high, and extreme rainfall scenarios for build-up and wash-off investigations. GAIA analyses established that moderate to high traffic scenarios could affect the build-up, while moderate to high rainfall scenarios could affect the wash-off of heavy metals under changed conditions. However, in wash-off, metal concentrations in 1-75 μm fraction were found to be independent of the changes to rainfall characteristics. In build-up, high traffic activities in commercial and industrial areas influenced the accumulation of heavy metal concentrations in particulate size range from 75 - >300 μm, whereas metal concentrations in finer size range of <1-75 μm were not affected. As practical implications, solids <1 μm and organic matter from 1 - >300 μm can be targeted for removal of Ni, Cu, Pb, Cd, Cr, and Zn from build-up, while organic matter from <1 - >300 μm can be targeted for removal of Cd, Cr, Pb, and Ni from wash-off. Cu and Zn need to be removed as free ions from most fractions in wash-off.

Debris-flow and flooding hazards associated with the December 1999 storm in coastal Venezuela and strategies for mitigation

USGS Publications Warehouse

Wieczorek, G.F.; Larsen, M.C.; Eaton, L.S.; Morgan, B.A.; Blair, J.L.

2001-01-01

Heavy rainfall from the storm of December 14-16, 1999 triggered thousands of landslides on steep slopes of the Sierra de Avila north of Caracas, Venezuela. In addition to landslides, heavy rainfall caused flooding and massive debris flows that damaged coastal communities in the State of Vargas along the Caribbean Sea. Examination of the rainfall pattern obtained from the GOES-8 satellite showed that the pattern of damage was generally consistent with the area of heaviest rainfall. Field observations of the severely affected drainage basins and historical records indicate that previous flooding and massive debris-flow events of similar magnitude to that of December 1999 have occurred throughout this region. The volume of debris-flow deposits and the large boulders that the flows transported qualifies the 1999 event amongst the largest historical rainfall-induced debris flows documented worldwide.

[Rainfall intensity effects on nutrients transport in surface runoff from farmlands in gentle slope hilly area of Taihu Lake Basin].

PubMed

Li, Rui-ling; Zhang, Yong-chun; Liu, Zhuang; Zeng, Yuan; Li, Wei-xin; Zhang, Hong-ling

2010-05-01

To investigate the effect of rainfall on agricultural nonpoint source pollution, watershed scale experiments were conducted to study the characteristics of nutrients in surface runoff under different rainfall intensities from farmlands in gentle slope hilly areas around Taihu Lake. Rainfall intensity significantly affected N and P concentrations in runoff. Rainfall intensity was positively related to TP, PO4(3-) -P and NH4+ -N event mean concentrations(EMC). However, this study have found the EMC of TN and NO3- -N to be positively related to rainfall intensity under light rain and negatively related to rainfall intensity under heavy rain. TN and TP site mean amounts (SMA) in runoff were positively related to rainfall intensity and were 1.91, 311.83, 127.65, 731.69 g/hm2 and 0.04, 7.77, 2.99, 32.02 g/hm2 with rainfall applied under light rain, moderate rain, heavy rain and rainstorm respectively. N in runoff was mainly NO3- -N and NH4+ -N and was primarily in dissolved form from Meilin soils. Dissolved P (DP) was the dominant form of TP under light rain, but particulate P (PP) mass loss increased with the increase of rainfall intensity and to be the dominant form when the rainfall intensity reaches rainstorm. Single relationships were used to describe the dependence of TN and TP mass losses in runoff on rainfall, maximum rainfall intensity, average rainfall intensity and rainfall duration respectively. The results showed a significant positive correlation between TN mass loss and rainfall, maximum rainfall intensity respectively (p < 0.01) and also TP mass loss and rainfall, maximum rainfall intensity respectively (p < 0.01).

Diagnosing Possible Anthropogenic Contributions to Colorado Floods in September 2013.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pall, P.; Patricola, C. M.; Wehner, M. F.; Stone, D. A.

2015-12-01

Unusually heavy rainfall occurred over the Colorado Front Range during the second week of September 2013, with record or near-record totals recorded in several locations. It was associated predominantly with a stationary large-scale weather pattern (akin to the North American Monsoon, which occurs earlier in the year) that drove a strong plume of deep moisture inland from the Gulf of Mexico and eastern tropical Pacific towards the Front Range foothills. The resulting floods across the South Platte River basin impacted several thousands of people and many homes, roads, and businesses. A recent study using observational-based re-analysis to drive the regional WRF model finds that, given very little change in the large-scale weather pattern, there is an increase in atmospheric water vapour over northeast Colorado under anthropogenic climate warming, with a positive dynamical feedback drawing in moisture from further afield. This leads to a substantial increase in the magnitude and odds of heavy rainfall occurring over northeast Colorado during the rainy week of September 2013. Here we develop this work by including a hydrological modelling component in order to investigate any anthropogenic influence on the actual flood magnitude and occurrence across the South Platte basin during that time. We use WRF precipitation output from the aforementioned study - in both anthropogenic and non-anthropogenic configurations for September 2013 - to drive the recently developed high-resolution WRF-Hydro model over the basin and generate river runoff. Thus by comparing changes in runoff under the anthropogenic / non-anthropogenic driving conditions we assess any influence on the magnitude and odds of flood occurrence. Integral to this, we test the sensitivity of our results to hydrological parameters, such as infiltration, base flow, and land use/cover.

Accessing the capability of TRMM 3B42 V7 to simulate streamflow during extreme rain events: Case study for a Himalayan River Basin

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kumar, Brijesh; Lakshmi, Venkat

2018-03-01

The paper examines the quality of Tropical Rainfall Monitoring Mission (TRMM) 3B42 V7 precipitation product to simulate the streamflow using Soil Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model for various rainfall intensities over the Himalayan region. The SWAT model has been set up for Gandak River Basin with 41 sub-basins and 420 HRUs. Five stream gauge locations are used to simulate the streamflow for a time span of 10 years (2000-2010). Daily streamflow for the simulation period is collected from Central Water Commission (CWC), India and Department of Hydrology and Meteorology (DHM), Nepal. The simulation results are found good in terms of Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency (NSE) {>}0.65, coefficient of determination (R2) {>}0.67 and Percentage Bias (PBIAS){<}15%, at each stream gauge sites. Thereafter, we have calculated the PBIAS and RMSE-observations standard deviation ratio (RSR) statistics between TRMM simulated and observed streamflow for various rainfall intensity classes, viz., light ({<}7.5 mm/d), moderate (7.5 to 35.4 mm/d), heavy (35.5 to 124.4 mm/d) and extremely heavy ({>}124.4 mm/d). The PBIAS and RSR show that TRMM simulated streamflow is suitable for moderate to heavy rainfall intensities. However, it does not perform well for light- and extremely-heavy rainfall intensities. The finding of the present work is useful for the problems related to water resources management, irrigation planning and hazard analysis over the Himalayan regions.

North Indian heavy rainfall event during June 2013: diagnostics and extended range prediction

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Joseph, Susmitha; Sahai, A. K.; Sharmila, S.; Abhilash, S.; Borah, N.; Chattopadhyay, R.; Pillai, P. A.; Rajeevan, M.; Kumar, Arun

2015-04-01

The Indian summer monsoon of 2013 covered the entire country by 16 June, one month earlier than its normal date. Around that period, heavy rainfall was experienced in the north Indian state of Uttarakhand, which is situated on the southern slope of Himalayan Ranges. The heavy rainfall and associated landslides caused serious damages and claimed many lives. This study investigates the scientific rationale behind the incidence of the extreme rainfall event in the backdrop of large scale monsoon environment. It is found that a monsoonal low pressure system that provided increased low level convergence and abundant moisture, and a midlatitude westerly trough that generated strong upper level divergence, interacted with each other and helped monsoon to cover the entire country and facilitated the occurrence of the heavy rainfall event in the orographic region. The study also examines the skill of an ensemble prediction system (EPS) in predicting the Uttarakhand event on extended range time scale. The EPS is implemented on both high (T382) and low (T126) resolution versions of the coupled general circulation model CFSv2. Although the models predicted the event 10-12 days in advance, they failed to predict the midlatitude influence on the event. Possible reasons for the same are also discussed. In both resolutions of the model, the event was triggered by the generation and northwestward movement of a low pressure system developed over the Bay of Bengal. The study advocates the usefulness of high resolution models in predicting extreme events.

Heavy rains over Chennai and surrounding areas as captured by Doppler weather radar during Northeast Monsoon 2015: a case study

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kamaljit, Ray; Kannan, B. A. M.; Stella, S.; Sen, Bikram; Sharma, Pradip; Thampi, S. B.

2016-05-01

During the Northeast monsoon season, India receives about 11% of its annual rainfall. Many districts in South Peninsula receive 30-60% of their annual rainfall. Coastal Tamil Nadu receives 60% of its annual rainfall and interior districts about 40-50 %. During the month of November, 2015, three synoptic scale weather systems affected Tamil Nadu and Pondicherry causing extensive rainfall activity over the region. Extremely heavy rains occurred over districts of Chennai, Thiruvallur and Kancheepuram, due to which these 3 districts were fully inundated. 122 people in Tamil Nadu were reported to have died due to the flooding, while over 70,000 people had been rescued. State government reported flood damage of the order of around Rs 8481 Crores. The rainfall received in Chennai district during 1.11.2015 to 5.12.2015 was 1416.8 mm against the normal of 408.4 mm. The extremely heavy rains were found to be associated with strong wind surges at lower tropospheric levels, which brought in lot of moisture flux over Chennai and adjoining area. The subtropical westerly trough at mid-tropospheric levels extended much southwards than its normal latitude, producing favorable environment for sustained rising motions ahead of approaching trough over coastal Tamil Nadu. Generated strong upward velocities in the clouds lifted the cloud tops to very high levels forming deep convective clouds. These clouds provided very heavy rainfall of the order of 150-200 mm/hour. In this paper we have used radar data to examine and substantiate the cloud burst that led to these torrential rains over Chennai and adjoining areas during the Northeast Monsoon period, 2015.

Design and development of surface rainfall forecast products on GRAPES_MESO model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhili, Liu

2016-04-01

In this paper, we designed and developed the surface rainfall forecast products using medium scale GRAPES_MESO model precipitation forecast products. The horizontal resolution of GRAPES_MESO model is 10km*10km, the number of Grids points is 751*501, vertical levels is 26, the range is 70°E－145.15°E, 15°N－64.35 °N. We divided the basin into 7 major watersheds. Each watersheds was divided into a number of sub regions. There were 95 sub regions in all. Tyson polygon method is adopted in the calculation of surface rainfall. We used 24 hours forecast precipitation data of GRAPES_MESO model to calculate the surface rainfall. According to the site of information and boundary information of the 95 sub regions, the forecast surface rainfall of each sub regions was calculated. We can provide real-time surface rainfall forecast products every day. We used the method of fuzzy evaluation to carry out a preliminary test and verify about the surface rainfall forecast product. Results shows that the fuzzy score of heavy rain, rainstorm and downpour level forecast rainfall were higher, the fuzzy score of light rain level was lower. The forecast effect of heavy rain, rainstorm and downpour level surface rainfall were better. The rate of missing and empty forecast of light rainfall level surface rainfall were higher, so it's fuzzy score were lower.

Hydrometeorological and statistical analyses of heavy rainfall in Midwestern USA

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Thorndahl, S.; Smith, J. A.; Krajewski, W. F.

2012-04-01

During the last two decades the mid-western states of the United States of America has been largely afflicted by heavy flood producing rainfall. Several of these storms seem to have similar hydrometeorological properties in terms of pattern, track, evolution, life cycle, clustering, etc. which raise the question if it is possible to derive general characteristics of the space-time structures of these heavy storms. This is important in order to understand hydrometeorological features, e.g. how storms evolve and with what frequency we can expect extreme storms to occur. In the literature, most studies of extreme rainfall are based on point measurements (rain gauges). However, with high resolution and quality radar observation periods exceeding more than two decades, it is possible to do long-term spatio-temporal statistical analyses of extremes. This makes it possible to link return periods to distributed rainfall estimates and to study precipitation structures which cause floods. However, doing these statistical frequency analyses of rainfall based on radar observations introduces some different challenges, converting radar reflectivity observations to "true" rainfall, which are not problematic doing traditional analyses on rain gauge data. It is for example difficult to distinguish reflectivity from high intensity rain from reflectivity from other hydrometeors such as hail, especially using single polarization radars which are used in this study. Furthermore, reflectivity from bright band (melting layer) should be discarded and anomalous propagation should be corrected in order to produce valid statistics of extreme radar rainfall. Other challenges include combining observations from several radars to one mosaic, bias correction against rain gauges, range correction, ZR-relationships, etc. The present study analyzes radar rainfall observations from 1996 to 2011 based the American NEXRAD network of radars over an area covering parts of Iowa, Wisconsin, Illinois, and Lake Michigan. The radar observations are processed using Hydro-NEXRAD algorithms in order to produce rainfall estimates with a spatial resolution of 1 km and a temporal resolution of 15 min. The rainfall estimates are bias-corrected on a daily basis using a network of rain gauges. Besides a thorough evaluation of the different challenges in investigating heavy rain as described above the study includes suggestions for frequency analysis methods as well as studies of hydrometeorological features of single events.

The impact of air pollutants on rainwater chemistry during "urban-induced heavy rainfall" in downtown Tokyo, Japan

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Uchiyama, Ryunosuke; Okochi, Hiroshi; Katsumi, Naoya; Ogata, Hiroko

2017-06-01

In order to clarify the impact of air pollution on the formation of sudden and locally distributed heavy rain in urban areas (hereafter UHR = urban-induced heavy rain), we analyzed inorganic ions in rainwater samples collected on an event basis over 5 years from October 2012 to December 2016 in Shinjuku, Tokyo. Hourly rainfall amounts and wet deposition fluxes of acidic components (the sum of H+, NH4+, NO3-, and nonsea-salt SO42-) in UHR were 13.1 and 17.8 times larger than those in normal rainfall, respectively, indicating that large amount of air pollutants were scavenged and deposited by UHR with large amounts of rainfall. The level of air pollutants, such as NO2, SO2, and potential ozone, in the ambient air increased just before the formation of UHR and decreased sharply at the end of the UHR event. These results indicate that NO2, which was formed secondarily by oxidants, was further oxidized by HO radicals and formed HNO3 just before the formation of UHR, which was subsequently scavenged by UHR.

Leaching variations of heavy metals in chelator-assisted phytoextraction by Zea mays L. exposed to acid rainfall.

PubMed

Lu, Yayin; Luo, Dinggui; Liu, Lirong; Tan, Zicong; Lai, An; Liu, Guowei; Li, Junhui; Long, Jianyou; Huang, Xuexia; Chen, Yongheng

2017-11-01

Chelant-enhanced phytoextraction method has been put forward as an effective soil remediation method, whereas the heavy metal leaching could not be ignored. In this study, a cropping-leaching experiment, using soil columns, was applied to study the metal leaching variations during assisted phytoextraction of Cd- and Pb-polluted soils, using seedlings of Zea mays, applying three different chelators (EDTA, EDDS, and rhamnolipid), and artificial rainfall (acid rainfall or normal rainfall). It showed that artificial rainfall, especially artificial acid rain, after chelator application led to the increase of heavy metals in the leaching solution. EDTA increased both Cd and Pb concentrations in the leaching solution, obviously, whereas EDDS and rhamnolipid increased Cd concentration but not Pb. The amount of Cd and Pb decreased as the leaching solution increased, the patterns as well matched LRMs (linear regression models), with R-square (R 2 ) higher than 90 and 82% for Cd and Pb, respectively. The maximum cumulative Cd and Pb in the leaching solutions were 18.44 and 16.68%, respectively, which was amended by EDTA and acid rainwater (pH 4.5), and followed by EDDS (pH 4.5), EDDS (pH 6.5), rhamnolipid (0.5 g kg -1 soil, pH 4.5), and rhamnolipid (pH 6.5).

Heavy rainfall triggers increased nocturnal flight in desert populations of the Pacific black duck (Anas superciliosa).

PubMed

McEvoy, J F; Ribot, R F H; Wingfield, J C; Bennett, A T D

2017-12-14

Understanding of avian nocturnal flight comes mainly from northern hemisphere species in seasonal temperate ecosystems where nocturnal flight is often precisely timed and entrained by annual photoperiod. Here we investigate patterns of nocturnal flight in waterbirds of Australian desert ecosystems that fly considerable distances to find temporary water bodies formed from rainfall which is highly unpredictable seasonally and spatially, and when there is sufficient water, they then breed. How they perform these feats of navigation and physiology remain poorly known. Using GPS tracking of 38 satellite tagged Pacific black ducks (Anas superciliosa) in two contrasting ecosystems, before and after heavy rainfall we revealed a key role for facultative nocturnal flight in the movement ecology of this species. After large rainfall events, birds rapidly increased nocturnal flight activity in the arid aseasonal ecosystem, but not in the mesic seasonal one. Nocturnal flights occurred throughout the night in both ecosystems. Long range flights (>50 km in 2 hours) occurred almost exclusively at night; at night the distance flown was higher than during the day, birds visited more locations, and the locations were more widely dispersed. Our work reveals that heavy rainfall triggers increased nocturnal flight activity in desert populations of waterbirds.

The effects of acid rainfall and heavy metal particulates on a boreal forest ecosystem near the Sudbury smelting region of Canada

Treesearch

T. C. Hutchinson

1976-01-01

Sulphur dioxide emissions have occurred on a gigantic scale at Sudbury from nickel-copper smelters. Soil erosion has followed the destruction of large areas of forest. Rainfall has been found highly acidic, frequently less than pH 3.0 in 1971. Metal accumulation in the soils (to distances of 50 km) have occurred for nickel and copper. The combination of heavy metal...

Effects of extreme low flows on freshwater shrimps in a perennial tropical stream.

Treesearch

A.P. COVICH; T.A. CROWL; F.N. SCATENA

2003-01-01

1. Long-term data on rainfall suggests that perennial rainforest streams rarely are subject to drying of riffles or pools in the wet, non-seasonal Caribbean climate of Puerto Rico. Unusually low rainfall in 1994 caused some headwater riffles to dry out completely, resulting in isolated pools, reduced pool volumes and loss of access to microhabitats by benthic...

TRMM Applications for Rainfall-Induced Landslide Early Warning

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dok, A.; Fukuoka, H.; Hong, Y.

2012-04-01

Early warning system (EWS) is the most effective method in saving lives and reducing property damages resulted from the catastrophic landslides if properly implemented in populated areas of landslide-prone nations. For predicting the occurrence of landslides, it requires examination of empirical relationship between rainfall characteristics and past landslide occurrence. In developed countries like Japan and the US, precipitation is monitored by rain radars and ground-based rain gauge matrix. However, in developing regions like Southeast Asian countries, very limited number of rain gauges is available, and there is no implemented methodology for issuing effective warming of landslides yet. Correspondingly, satellite precipitation monitoring could be therefore a possible and promising solution for launching landslide quasi-real-time early warning system in those countries. It is due to the fact that TMPA (TRMM Multi-satellite Precipitation Analysis) can provides a globally calibration-based sequential scheme for combining precipitation estimates from multiple satellites, and gauge analyses where feasible, at fine scales (3-hourly with 0.25°x0.25° spatial resolution). It is available both after and in quasi-real time, calibrated by TRMM Combined Instrument and TRMM Microwave Imager precipitation product. However, validation of ground based rain gauge and TRMM satellite data in the vulnerable regions is still not yet operative. Snake-line/Critical-line and Soil Water Index (SWI) are used for issuing warning of landslide occurrence in Japan; whereas, Caine criterion is preferable in Europe and western nations. Herewith, it presents rainfall behavior which took place in Beichuan city (located on the 2008 Chinese Wenchuan earthquake fault), Hofu and Shobara cities in Japan where localized heavy rainfall attacked in 2009 and 2010, respectively, from TRMM 3B42RT correlated with ground based rain gauge data. The 1-day rainfall intensity and 15-day cumulative rainfall (snake line) were independently plotted to investigate the impact of short-term rainfall intensity and accumulated effective rainfall volume respectively for obtaining some probabilistic threshold. Japanese SWI was also tested to distribute threshold regarding to highly nonlinear rainfall patterns in predicting the landslide occurrence through the plot of total water of 3 serial tank models and daily precipitation. As a result, the snake line plots using TMPA work well for landslide warning in the selected cities; while SWI plots shows unusual peak value on the day of the debris flow occurrence. Graph of daily precipitation vs SWI implies possible zone of critical line, and second peak appearance 1 day before, indicating possibility of early warning.

An evaluation of WRF microphysics schemes for simulating the warm-type heavy rain over the Korean peninsula

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Song, Hwan-Jin; Sohn, Byung-Ju

2018-01-01

The Korean peninsula is the region of distinctly showing the heavy rain associated with relatively low storm height and small ice water content in the upper part of cloud system (i.e., so-called warm-type heavy rainfall). The satellite observations for the warmtype rain over Korea led to a conjecture that the cloud microphysics parameterization suitable for the continental deep convection may not work well for the warm-type heavy rainfall over the Korean peninsula. Therefore, there is a growing need to examine the performance of cloud microphysics schemes for simulating the warm-type heavy rain structures over the Korean peninsula. This study aims to evaluate the capabilities of eight microphysics schemes in the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model how warmtype heavy rain structures can be simulated, in reference to the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) Precipitation Radar (PR) reflectivity measurements. The results indicate that the WRF Double Moment 6-class (WDM6) scheme simulated best the vertical structure of warm-type heavy rain by virtue of a reasonable collisioncoalescence process between liquid droplets and the smallest amount of snow. Nonetheless the WDM6 scheme appears to have limitations that need to be improved upon for a realistic reflectivity structure, in terms of the reflectivity slope below the melting layer, discontinuity in reflectivity profiles around the melting layer, and overestimation of upper-level reflectivity due to high graupel content.

An Evaluation of WRF Microphysics Schemes for Simulating the Warm-Type Heavy Rain over the Korean Peninsula

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Song, Hwan-Jin; Sohn, Byung-Ju

2018-05-01

The Korean peninsula is the region of distinctly showing the heavy rain associated with relatively low storm height and small ice water content in the upper part of cloud system (i.e., so-called warm-type heavy rainfall). The satellite observations for the warm-type rain over Korea led to a conjecture that the cloud microphysics parameterization suitable for the continental deep convection may not work well for the warm-type heavy rainfall over the Korean peninsula. Therefore, there is a growing need to examine the performance of cloud microphysics schemes for simulating the warm-type heavy rain structures over the Korean peninsula. This study aims to evaluate the capabilities of eight microphysics schemes in the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model how warm-type heavy rain structures can be simulated, in reference to the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) Precipitation Radar (PR) reflectivity measurements. The results indicate that the WRF Double Moment 6-class (WDM6) scheme simulated best the vertical structure of warm-type heavy rain by virtue of a reasonable collision-coalescence process between liquid droplets and the smallest amount of snow. Nonetheless the WDM6 scheme appears to have limitations that need to be improved upon for a realistic reflectivity structure, in terms of the reflectivity slope below the melting layer, discontinuity in reflectivity profiles around the melting layer, and overestimation of upper-level reflectivity due to high graupel content.

Untreated runoff quality from roof and road surfaces in a low intensity rainfall climate.

PubMed

Charters, Frances J; Cochrane, Thomas A; O'Sullivan, Aisling D

2016-04-15

Sediment and heavy metals in stormwater runoff are key pollutants of urban waterways, and their presence in stormwater is driven by climatic factors such as rainfall intensity. This study describes the total suspended solids (TSS) and heavy metal concentrations found in runoff from four different urban surfaces within a residential/institutional catchment, in a climate where rainfall is typically of low intensity (<5.1mm·h(-1)). The results were compared to untreated runoff quality from a compilation of international studies. The road runoff had the highest TSS concentrations, while copper and galvanized roof runoff had the highest copper and zinc concentrations, respectively. Pollutant concentrations were found to be significantly different between surfaces; quantification and prediction of pollutant contributions from urban surfaces should thus take account of the different surface materials, instead of being aggregated into more generalized categories such as land use. The TSS and heavy metal concentrations were found to be at the low to medium end of ranges observed internationally, except for total copper and zinc concentrations generated by dissolution of copper and galvanized roofing material respectively; these concentrations were at least as high as those reported internationally. TSS wash-off from the roofs was seen to be a source-limited process, where all available TSS is washed off during the rain event despite the low intensity rainfall, whereas both road TSS and heavy metals wash-off from roof and road surfaces appeared to all be transport-limited and therefore some carryover of pollutants occurs between rain events. A first flush effect was seen from most surfaces for TSS, but not for heavy metals. This study demonstrates that in low intensity rainfall climates, quantification of untreated runoff quality from key individual surface types in a catchment are needed to enable development of targeted and appropriately sized stormwater treatment systems. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Short-Range Prediction of Monsoon Precipitation by NCMRWF Regional Unified Model with Explicit Convection

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mamgain, Ashu; Rajagopal, E. N.; Mitra, A. K.; Webster, S.

2018-03-01

There are increasing efforts towards the prediction of high-impact weather systems and understanding of related dynamical and physical processes. High-resolution numerical model simulations can be used directly to model the impact at fine-scale details. Improvement in forecast accuracy can help in disaster management planning and execution. National Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasting (NCMRWF) has implemented high-resolution regional unified modeling system with explicit convection embedded within coarser resolution global model with parameterized convection. The models configurations are based on UK Met Office unified seamless modeling system. Recent land use/land cover data (2012-2013) obtained from Indian Space Research Organisation (ISRO) are also used in model simulations. Results based on short-range forecast of both the global and regional models over India for a month indicate that convection-permitting simulations by the high-resolution regional model is able to reduce the dry bias over southern parts of West Coast and monsoon trough zone with more intense rainfall mainly towards northern parts of monsoon trough zone. Regional model with explicit convection has significantly improved the phase of the diurnal cycle of rainfall as compared to the global model. Results from two monsoon depression cases during study period show substantial improvement in details of rainfall pattern. Many categories in rainfall defined for operational forecast purposes by Indian forecasters are also well represented in case of convection-permitting high-resolution simulations. For the statistics of number of days within a range of rain categories between `No-Rain' and `Heavy Rain', the regional model is outperforming the global model in all the ranges. In the very heavy and extremely heavy categories, the regional simulations show overestimation of rainfall days. Global model with parameterized convection have tendency to overestimate the light rainfall days and underestimate the heavy rain days compared to the observation data.

Comparison of Adaline and Multiple Linear Regression Methods for Rainfall Forecasting

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sutawinaya, IP; Astawa, INGA; Hariyanti, NKD

2018-01-01

Heavy rainfall can cause disaster, therefore need a forecast to predict rainfall intensity. Main factor that cause flooding is there is a high rainfall intensity and it makes the river become overcapacity. This will cause flooding around the area. Rainfall factor is a dynamic factor, so rainfall is very interesting to be studied. In order to support the rainfall forecasting, there are methods that can be used from Artificial Intelligence (AI) to statistic. In this research, we used Adaline for AI method and Regression for statistic method. The more accurate forecast result shows the method that used is good for forecasting the rainfall. Through those methods, we expected which is the best method for rainfall forecasting here.

Estimation of sediment yield from subsequent expanded landslides after heavy rainfalls : a case study in central Hokkaido, Japan

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Koshimizu, K.; Uchida, T.

2015-12-01

Initial large-scale sediment yield caused by heavy rainfall or major storms have made a strong impression on us. Previous studies focusing on landslide management investigated the initial sediment movement and its mechanism. However, integrated management of catchment-scale sediment movements requires estimating the sediment yield, which is produced by the subsequent expanded landslides due to rainfall, in addition to the initial landslide movement. This study presents a quantitative analysis of expanded landslides by surveying the Shukushubetsu River basin, at the foot of the Hidaka mountain range in central Hokkaido, Japan. This area recorded heavy rainfall in 2003, reaching a maximum daily precipitation of 388 mm. We extracted the expanded landslides from 2003 to 2008 using aerial photographs taken over the river area. In particular, we calculated the probability of expansion for each landslide, the ratio of the landslide area in 2008 as compared with that in 2003, and the amount of the expanded landslide area corresponding to the initial landslide area. As a result, it is estimated 24% about probability of expansion for each landslide. In addition, each expanded landslide area is smaller than the initial landslide area. Furthermore, the amount of each expanded landslide area in 2008 is approximately 7% of their landslide area in 2003. Therefore, the sediment yield from subsequent expanded landslides is equal to or slightly greater than the sediment yield in a typical base flow. Thus, we concluded that the amount of sediment yield from subsequent expanded landslides is lower than that of initial large-scale sediment yield caused by a heavy rainfall in terms of effect on management of catchment-scale sediment movement.

Effects of Raindrop Shape Parameter on the Simulation of Plum Rains

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mei, H.; Zhou, L.; Li, X.; Huang, X.; Guo, W.

2017-12-01

The raindrop shape parameter of particle distribution is generally set as constant in a Double-moment Bulk Microphysics Scheme (DBMS) using Gama distribution function though which suggest huge differences in time and space according to observations. Based on Milbrandt 2-mon(MY) DBMS, four cases during Plum Rains season are simulated coupled with four empirical relationships between shape parameter (μr) and slope parameter of raindrop which have been concluded from observations of raindrop distributions. The analysis of model results suggest that μr have some influences on rainfall. Introducing the diagnostic formulas of μr may have some improvement on systematic biases of 24h accumulated rainfall and show some correction ability on local characteristics of rainfall distribution. Besides,the tendency to improve strong rainfall could be sensitive to μr. With the improvement of the diagnosis of μr using the empirically diagnostic formulas, μr increases generally in the middle- and lower-troposphere and decreases with the stronger rainfall. Its conclued that, the decline in raindrop water content and the increased raindrop mass-weighted average terminal velocity directly related to μr are the direct reasons of variations in the precipitation.On the other side, the environmental conditions including relative humidity and dynamical parameters are the key indirectly causes which has close relationships with the changes in cloud particles and rainfall distributions.Furthermore,the differences in the scale of improvement between the weak and heavy rainfall mainly come from the distinctions of response features about their variable fields respectively. The extent of variation in the features of cloud particles in warm clouds of heavy rainfall differs greatly from that of weak rainfall, though they share the same trend of variation. On the conditions of weak rainfall, the response of physical characteristics to μr performed consistent trends and some linear features. However, environmental conditions of relative humidity and dynamical parameters perform strong and vertically deep adjustments in the heavy precipitation with vigorous cloud systems. In this case, the microphysical processes and environmental conditions experience complex interactions with each other and no significant laws could be concluded.

Assessment of Rainfall-induced Landslide Potential and Spatial Distribution

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chen, Yie-Ruey; Tsai, Kuang-Jung; Chen, Jing-Wen; Chiang, Jie-Lun; Hsieh, Shun-Chieh; Chue, Yung-Sheng

2016-04-01

Recently, due to the global climate change, most of the time the rainfall in Taiwan is of short duration but with high intensity. Due to Taiwan's steep terrain, rainfall-induced landslides often occur and lead to human causalities and properties loss. Taiwan's government has invested huge reconstruction funds to the affected areas. However, after rehabilitation they still face the risk of secondary sediment disasters. Therefore, this study assesses rainfall-induced (secondary) landslide potential and spatial distribution in watershed of Southern Taiwan under extreme climate change. The study areas in this research are Baolai and Jianshan villages in the watershed of the Laonongxi River Basin in the Southern Taiwan. This study focused on the 3 years after Typhoon Morakot (2009 to 2011). During this period, the study area experienced six heavy rainfall events including five typhoons and one heavy rainfall. The genetic adaptive neural network, texture analysis and GIS were implemented in the analysis techniques for the interpretation of satellite images and to obtain surface information and hazard log data and to analyze land use change. A multivariate hazards evaluation method was applied to quantitatively analyze the weights of various natural environmental and slope development hazard factors. Furthermore, this study established a slope landslide potential assessment model and depicted a slope landslide potential diagram by using the GIS platform. The interaction between (secondary) landslide mechanism, scale, and location was analyzed using association analysis of landslide historical data and regional environmental characteristics. The results of image classification before and after six heavy rainfall events show that the values of coefficient of agreement are at medium-high level. By multivariate hazards evaluation method, geology and the effective accumulative rainfall (EAR) are the most important factors. Slope, distance from fault, aspect, land disturbance, and elevation are the secondary important factors. Under the different rainfall, the greater the average of EAR, the more the landslide occurrence and area increments. The determination coefficients of trend lines on the charts of the average of EAR versus number and area of landslide increment are 0.83 and 0.92, respectively. The relations between landslide potential level, degree of land disturbance, and the ratio of number and area of landslide increment corresponding six heavy rainfall events are positive and the determination coefficients of trend lines are 0.82 and 0.72, respectively. The relation between the average of EAR and the area of landslide increment corresponding five heavy rainfall events (excluding Morakot) is positive and the determination coefficient of trend line is 0.98. Furthermore, the relation between the area increment of secondary landslide, average of EAR or the slope disturbance is positive. Under the same slope disturbance, the greater the EAR, the more the area increment of secondary landslide. Contrarily, under the same EAR, the greater the slope disturbance, the more the area increment of secondary landslide. The results of the analysis of this study can be a reference for the government for subsequent countermeasures for slope sediment disaster sensitive area to reduce the number of casualties and significantly reduce the social cost of post-disaster.

Forest fire weather in western Oregon and western Washington in 1958.

Treesearch

Owen P. Cramer

1958-01-01

In terms of general weather, the 1958 fire season will be classed as one of the hottest on record and as having unusually frequent spring and summer lightning storms. It was also unusual in that spring and most of the summer were less rainy in western Washington than in normally dry southwestern Oregon. Thus, until late August, cumulative fire-season rainfall ranged...

Changing climate and endangered high mountain ecosystems in Colombia.

PubMed

Ruiz, Daniel; Moreno, Hernán Alonso; Gutiérrez, María Elena; Zapata, Paula Andrea

2008-07-15

High mountain ecosystems are among the most sensitive environments to changes in climatic conditions occurring on global, regional and local scales. The article describes the changing conditions observed over recent years in the high mountain basin of the Claro River, on the west flank of the Colombian Andean Central mountain range. Local ground truth data gathered at 4150 m, regional data available at nearby weather stations, and satellite info were used to analyze changes in the mean and the variance, and significant trends in climatic time series. Records included minimum, mean and maximum temperatures, relative humidity, rainfall, sunshine, and cloud characteristics. In high levels, minimum and maximum temperatures during the coldest days increased at a rate of about 0.6 degrees C/decade, whereas maximum temperatures during the warmest days increased at a rate of about 1.3 degrees C/decade. Rates of increase in maximum, mean and minimum diurnal temperature range reached 0.6, 0.7, and 0.5 degrees C/decade. Maximum, mean and minimum relative humidity records showed reductions of about 1.8, 3.9 and 6.6%/decade. The total number of sunny days per month increased in almost 2.1 days. The headwaters exhibited no changes in rainfall totals, but evidenced an increased occurrence of unusually heavy rainfall events. Reductions in the amount of all cloud types over the area reached 1.9%/decade. In low levels changes in mean monthly temperatures and monthly rainfall totals exceeded + 0.2 degrees C and - 4% per decade, respectively. These striking changes might have contributed to the retreat of glacier icecaps and to the disappearance of high altitude water bodies, as well as to the occurrence and rapid spread of natural and man-induced forest fires. Significant reductions in water supply, important disruptions of the integrity of high mountain ecosystems, and dramatic losses of biodiversity are now a steady menu of the severe climatic conditions experienced by these fragile tropical environments.

Precipitation Effects on Microbial Pollution in a River: Lag Structures and Seasonal Effect Modification

PubMed Central

Tornevi, Andreas; Bergstedt, Olof; Forsberg, Bertil

2014-01-01

Background The river Göta Älv is a source of freshwater for 0.7 million swedes. The river is subject to contamination from sewer systems discharge and runoff from agricultural lands. Climate models projects an increase in precipitation and heavy rainfall in this region. This study aimed to determine how daily rainfall causes variation in indicators of pathogen loads, to increase knowledge of variations in river water quality and discuss implications for risk management. Methods Data covering 7 years of daily monitoring of river water turbidity and concentrations of E. coli, Clostridium and coliforms were obtained, and their short-term variations in relation with precipitation were analyzed with time series regression and non-linear distributed lag models. We studied how precipitation effects varied with season and compared different weather stations for predictive ability. Results Generally, the lowest raw water quality occurs 2 days after rainfall, with poor raw water quality continuing for several more days. A rainfall event of >15 mm/24-h (local 95 percentile) was associated with a three-fold higher concentration of E. coli and 30% higher turbidity levels (lag 2). Rainfall was associated with exponential increases in concentrations of indicator bacteria while the effect on turbidity attenuated with very heavy rainfall. Clear associations were also observed between consecutive days of wet weather and decreased water quality. The precipitation effect on increased levels of indicator bacteria was significant in all seasons. Conclusions Rainfall elevates microbial risks year-round in this river and freshwater source and acts as the main driver of varying water quality. Heavy rainfall appears to be a better predictor of fecal pollution than water turbidity. An increase of wet weather and extreme events with climate change will lower river water quality even more, indicating greater challenges for drinking water producers, and suggesting better control of sources of pollution. PMID:24874010

The Impact of Microphysics and Model Resolution on Precipitation Associated with Typhoon Morakot 2009

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lin, Pay-Liam; Chen, D.; Tao, Wei-Kuo; Shi, Jainn J.; Chang, Mei-Yu

2010-01-01

In recent years, the heavy rainfall that was associated with severe weather events (e.g., typhoons, local heavy precipitation events) has caused significant damages in the economy and loss of human life throughout Taiwan. Especially, the extreme heavy rainfall (over 2500 mm over 24 hours) associated with Typhoon Morakot 2009 caused more than 600 human beings lost and more than $100 million US dollar damage. In this paper, we are using WRF to simulate the precipitation processes associated Typhoon Morakot 2009. The preliminary results indicated that the wrf model with using 2 km grid size and with utilizing the 310E scheme (cloud ice, snow and hail) can simulate more than 2500 mm rainfall over 24 hour integration. In this talk, we will evaluate the performance of the microphysical schemes for the Typhoon Morakot case. In addition, we will examine the impact of model resolution (in both horizontal and vertical) on the Typhoon Morakot case.

Heavy Precipitation impacts and emergency planning - developing applicable strategies for a metropolitan area

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kutschker, Thomas; Glade, Thomas

2016-04-01

Heavy rainfall in central Europe is one of the assumed effects of climate change, which occurs with large seasonal and regional differences in its magnitude. The extent of loss depends on natural parameters (e.g. topography and vegetation) as well as on socio-economic factors like urbanized and industrialized areas and population density. Dangerous cascade effects appear, if critical infrastructure like the electrical power supply is affected. In some cases mudflows and flash floods cause inundated or undercut roads and cause a high demand for fast and effective assistance of the authorities. The civil protection in Germany is based on a federal system with a bottom-up command-structure and responsibility to the local community. Commonly this responsibility is taken by the fire brigades and civil protection units of the community or district. After heavy rainfall in an urban area, numerous incidents and emergency calls appearing at a time are overstressing the human and technical resources of the fire brigades within the local authority frequently. In this study, a method of comprehensive evaluation of meteorological data and the operation data from local fire brigades shall be developed for the Rhine-Main-Area in order to identify particular affected spots of heavy rain and bundle resources of the fire brigades. It is to be found out if the study area contains regions with a particularly high exposure to heavy rain and high application numbers of the fire department and whether there is a relationship of rainfall and frequency of use. To evaluate particular local effects on the fire brigades capability, a brief analysis of the meteorological data provided by the German Meteorological Service (DWD) as well as the evaluation of the incident data of the affected fire brigades, is used to frame a realistic approach. In particular fire brigade operation data can be used accordingly to describe the intensity of the aftermath when heavy precipitation strikes a certain area. It shows that most of the damage is caused by spilled sewage drains flooding basements and streets. Besides less fire brigade operations are observed in rural areas with constant amount of rainfall. The occurrence of heavy rain events is spatially limited, hot-spot areas with higher probability can be detected. Based on this finding, a resource management strategy for the fire brigade can be developed. Keywords: emergency planning strategy, critical infrastructure, heavy rainfall, fire-brigade resource management

Determining the influence of rainfall patterns and carbendazim on the surface activity of the earthworm Lumbricus terrestris.

PubMed

Ellis, Sian R; Hodson, Mark E; Wege, Phil

2010-08-01

Carbendazim is highly toxic to earthworms and is used as a standard control substance when running field-based trials of pesticides, but results using carbendazim are highly variable. In the present study, impacts of timing of rainfall events following carbendazim application on earthworms were investigated. Lumbricus terrestris were maintained in soil columns to which carbendazim and then deionized water (a rainfall substitute) were applied. Carbendazim was applied at 4 kg/ha, the rate recommended in pesticide field trials. Three rainfall regimes were investigated: initial and delayed heavy rainfall 24 h and 6 d after carbendazim application, and frequent rainfall every 48 h. Earthworm mortality and movement of carbendazim through the soil was assessed 14 d after carbendazim application. No detectable movement of carbendazim occurred through the soil in any of the treatments or controls. Mortality in the initial heavy and frequent rainfall was significantly higher (approximately 55%) than in the delayed rainfall treatment (approximately 25%). This was due to reduced bioavailability of carbendazim in the latter treatment due to a prolonged period of sorption of carbendazim to soil particles before rainfall events. The impact of carbendazim application on earthworm surface activity was assessed using video cameras. Carbendazim applications significantly reduced surface activity due to avoidance behavior of the earthworms. Surface activity reductions were least in the delayed rainfall treatment due to the reduced bioavailability of the carbendazim. The nature of rainfall events' impacts on the response of earthworms to carbendazim applications, and details of rainfall events preceding and following applications during field trials should be made at a higher level of resolution than is currently practiced according to standard International Organization for Standardization protocols. Copyright 2010 SETAC

Impact of Synoptic-Scale Factors on Rainfall Forecast in Different Stages of a Persistent Heavy Rainfall Event in South China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, Murong; Meng, Zhiyong

2018-04-01

This study investigates the stage-dependent rainfall forecast skills and the associated synoptic-scale features in a persistent heavy rainfall event in south China, Guangdong Province, during 29-31 March 2014, using operational global ensemble forecasts from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts. This persistent rainfall was divided into two stages with a better precipitation forecast skill in Stage 2 (S2) than Stage 1 (S1) although S2 had a longer lead time. Using ensemble-based sensitivity analysis, key synoptic-scale factors that affected the rainfall were diagnosed by correlating the accumulated precipitation of each stage to atmospheric state variables in the middle of respective stage. The precipitation in both stages was found to be significantly correlated with midlevel trough, low-level vortex, and particularly the low-level jet on the southeast flank of the vortex and its associated moisture transport. The rainfall forecast skill was mainly determined by the forecast accuracy in the location of the low-level jet, which was possibly related to the different juxtapositions between the direction of the movement of the low-level vortex and the orientation of the low-level jet. The uncertainty in rainfall forecast in S1 was mainly from the location uncertainty of the low-level jet, while the uncertainty in rainfall forecast in S2 was mainly from the width uncertainty of the low-level jet with the relatively accurate location of the low-level jet.

Optimization of microphysics in the Unified Model, using the Micro-genetic algorithm.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jang, J.; Lee, Y.; Lee, H.; Lee, J.; Joo, S.

2016-12-01

This study focuses on parameter optimization of microphysics in the Unified Model (UM) using the Micro-genetic algorithm (Micro-GA). We need the optimization of microphysics in UM. Because, Microphysics in the Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) model is important to Quantitative Precipitation Forecasting (QPF). The Micro-GA searches for optimal parameters on the basis of fitness function. The five parameters are chosen. The target parameters include x1, x2 related to raindrop size distribution, Cloud-rain correlation coefficient, Surface droplet number and Droplet taper height. The fitness function is based on the skill score that is BIAS and Critical Successive Index (CSI). An interface between UM and Micro-GA is developed and applied to three precipitation cases in Korea. The cases are (ⅰ) heavy rainfall in the Southern area because of typhoon NAKRI, (ⅱ) heavy rainfall in the Youngdong area, and (ⅲ) heavy rainfall in the Seoul metropolitan area. When the optimized result is compared to the control result (using the UM default value, CNTL), the optimized result leads to improvements in precipitation forecast, especially for heavy rainfall of the late forecast time. Also, we analyze the skill score of precipitation forecasts in terms of various thresholds of CNTL, Optimized result, and experiments on each optimized parameter for five parameters. Generally, the improvement is maximized when the five optimized parameters are used simultaneously. Therefore, this study demonstrates the ability to improve Korean precipitation forecasts by optimizing microphysics in UM.

Extreme flooding in the West African cities of Dakar and Ouagadougou - atmospheric dynamics and implications for flood risk assessments

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Engel, Thomas; Fink, Andreas; Knippertz, Peter

2017-04-01

In this study, two extreme, high-impact events of heavy rainfall and severe floods in West African urban areas (Ouagadougou in 2009, Dakar in 2012) are investigated in terms of their atmospheric causes and statistical return periods. In terms of the synoptic-convective dynamics, the Ouagadougou case is truly exceptional. A succession of two strong and temporarily slow-moving African Easterly Waves (AEWs) caused record-breaking values of tropospheric moisture and low-level relative vorticity, thereby providing the synoptic forcing for the nighttime genesis of Mesoscale Convective Systems (MCSs). Ouagadougou was hit by two successive MCSs, the latter being possible due to the rotation and swift moisture refuelling by the strong convergence in the AEW-related vortex. It is speculated that this case may allow a glimpse of a new type of extreme Sahelian rainstorms. Similarly to the Ouagadougou case, an AEW was instrumental in the overnight development of an MCSs to the east of Dakar, but neither the AEW vortex nor the tropospheric moisture content was as exceptional as in the Ouagadougou case. The Return Value (RV) analysis suggests that TRMM 3B42 data appears to be suitable to estimate centennial RVs using the "peak-over-threshold" approach with a GPD fit, though the good performance might be a result of errors in estimating extreme rainfall over the arid Sahel. On the contrary PERSIANN-CDR is inappropriate for this purpose, despite having a twice as long observational period. The Ouagadougou event also shows that highly unusual dynamical developments can create extreme situations well outside of any RV estimates from century-long daily rainfall observations.

Characteristics of occurrence of heavy rainfall events over Odisha during summer monsoon season

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Swain, Madhusmita; Pattanayak, Sujata; Mohanty, U. C.

2018-06-01

During summer monsoon season heavy to very heavy rainfall events have been occurring over most part of India, routinely result in flooding over Indian Monsoon Region (IMR). It is worthwhile to mention that as per Geological Survey of India, Odisha is one of the most flood prone regions of India. The present study analyses the occurrence of very light (0-2.4 mm/day), light (2.5 - 15.5 mm/day), moderate (15.6 - 64.4 mm/day), heavy (64.5 - 115.4 mm/day), very heavy (115.5 - 204.4 mm/day) and extreme (≥ 204.5 mm/day) rainy days over Odisha during summer monsoon season for a period of 113 years (1901 - 2013) and a detailed study has been done for heavy-to-extreme rainy days. For this purpose, India Meteorological Department (IMD) gridded (0.25° × 0.25° lat/lon) rainfall data and the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) Re-Analysis (ERA-Interim) (0.125° × 0.125° lat/lon) datasets are used. The analysis reveals that the frequency of very light, light and moderate rainy days persists with almost constant trend, but the heavy, very heavy and extreme rainy days exhibit an increasing trend during the study period. It may be noted that more than 60% of heavy-to-extreme rainy days are observed in the month of July and August. Furthermore, during the recent period (1980-2013), there are a total of 150 extreme rainy days are observed over Odisha, out of which 47% are associated with monsoon depressions (MDs) and cyclonic storms, 41% are with lows, 2% are due to the presence of middle and upper tropospheric cyclonic circulations, 1% is due to monsoon trough and other 9% of extreme rainy days does not follow any of these synoptic conditions. Since a large (nearly half) percentage of extreme rainy days over Odisha is due to the presence of MDs, a detailed examination of MDs is illustrated in this study. Analysis reveals that there are a total of 91 MDs formed over the Bay of Bengal (BoB) during 1980 - 2013, and out of which 56 (61.5% of total MD) MDs crossed Odisha. Further spatial analysis of extreme rainfall days exhibits that the maximum frequency of extreme rainy days is present over the south west region of Odisha.

On the Characterization of Rainfall Associated with U.S. Landfalling North Atlantic Tropical Cyclones Based on Satellite Data and Numerical Weather Prediction Outputs

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Luitel, B. N.; Villarini, G.; Vecchi, G. A.

2014-12-01

When we talk about tropical cyclones (TCs), the first things that come to mind are strong winds and storm surge affecting the coastal areas. However, according to the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) 59% of the deaths caused by TCs since 1970 is due to fresh water flooding. Heavy rainfall associated with TCs accounts for 13% of heavy rainfall events nationwide for the June-October months, with this percentage being much higher if the focus is on the eastern and southern United States. This study focuses on the evaluation of precipitation associated with the North Atlantic TCs that affected the continental United States over the period 2007 - 2012. We evaluate the rainfall associated with these TCs using four satellite based rainfall products: Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission - Multi-satellite Precipitation Analysis (TMPA; both real-time and research version); Precipitation Estimation from Remotely Sensed Information using Artificial Neural Networks (PERSIANN); Climate Prediction Center (CPC) MORPHing technique (CMORPH). As a reference data we use gridded rainfall provided by CPC (Daily US Unified Gauge-Based Analysis of Precipitation). Rainfall fields from each of these satellite products are compared to the reference data, providing valuable information about the realism of these products in reproducing the rainfall associated with TCs affecting the continental United States. In addition to the satellite products, we evaluate the forecasted rainfall produced by five state-of-the-art numerical weather prediction (NWP) models: European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF), UK Met Office (UKMO), National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP), China Meteorological Administration (CMA), and Canadian Meteorological Center (CMC). The skill of these models in reproducing TC rainfall is quantified for different lead times, and discussed in light of the performance of the satellite products.

Typhoon Maysak

NASA Image and Video Library

2015-03-31

ISS043E078143 (03/31/2015) --- Astronauts on board the International Space Station captured this image on Mar. 31, 2015 of the category 5 super Typhoon Maysak which is headed toward the Philippines. The Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) and Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM) satellites, both co-managed by NASA and the Japan Aerospace Exploration Agency, captured rainfall and cloud data that revealed heavy rainfall and high thunderstorms in the strengthening storm.

Regorafenib

MedlinePlus

... medical treatment: chest pain shortness of breath unusual vaginal discharge or irritation burning or pain when urinating dizziness ... blood clots abnormally heavy menstrual bleeding (periods) unusual vaginal ... may send a report to the Food and Drug Administration's (FDA) MedWatch ...

How Pore-Fluid Pressure due to Heavy Rainfall Influences Volcanic Eruptions, Example of 1998 and 2008 Eruptions of Cerro Azul (Galapagos)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Albino, F.; Amelung, F.; Gregg, P. M.

2016-12-01

About 30 worldwide seismic studies have shown a strong correlation between rainfall and earthquakes in the past 22 years (e.g. Costain and Bollinger, 2010). Such correlation has been explained by the phenomenon of hydro-seismicity via pore pressure diffusion: an increase of pore-fluid in the upper crust reduces the normal stress on faults, which can trigger shear failure. Although this pore pressure effect is widely known for earthquakes, this phenomenon and more broadly poro-elasticity process are not widely studied on volcanoes. However, we know from our previous works that tensile failures that open to propagate magma through the surface are also pore pressure dependent. We have demonstrated that an increase of pore pressure largely reduces the overpressure required to rupture the magma reservoir. We have shown that the pore pressure has more influence on reservoir stability than other parameters such as the reservoir depth or the edifice loading. Here, we investigate how small pore-fluid changes due to hydrothermal or aquifer refill during heavy rainfall may perturb the conditions of failure around magma reservoirs and, what is more, if these perturbations are enough to trigger magma intrusions. We quantify the pore pressure effect on magmatic system by combining 1) 1D pore pressure diffusion model to quantify how pore pressure changes from surface to depth after heavy rainfall events and 2) 2D poro-elastic numerical model to provide the evolution of failure conditions of the reservoir as a consequence of these pore pressure changes. Sensitivity analysis is also performed to characterize the influence on our results of the poro-elastic parameters (hydraulic diffusivity, permeability and porosity) and the geometry of the magma reservoir and the aquifer (depth, size, shape). Finally, we apply our methodology to Cerro Azul volcano (Galapagos) where both last eruptions (1998 and 2008) occurred just after heavy rainfall events, without any pre-eruptive inflation. In the event eruptions can be triggered by pore pressure changes in the crust, meteorological records and water table measurements are required to improve eruption's forecast, especially in regions where heavy rainfall events (typhoons, monsoons or hurricanes) frequently occur, such as in Indonesia, Philippines or Central America.

Impacts of the seasonal distribution of rainfall on vegetation productivity across the Sahel

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, Wenmin; Brandt, Martin; Tong, Xiaoye; Tian, Qingjiu; Fensholt, Rasmus

2018-01-01

Climate change in drylands has caused alterations in the seasonal distribution of rainfall including increased heavy-rainfall events, longer dry spells, and a shifted timing of the wet season. Yet the aboveground net primary productivity (ANPP) in drylands is usually explained by annual-rainfall sums, disregarding the influence of the seasonal distribution of rainfall. This study tested the importance of rainfall metrics in the wet season (onset and cessation of the wet season, number of rainy days, rainfall intensity, number of consecutive dry days, and heavy-rainfall events) for growing season ANPP. We focused on the Sahel and northern Sudanian region (100-800 mm yr-1) and applied daily satellite-based rainfall estimates (CHIRPS v2.0) and growing-season-integrated normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI; MODIS) as a proxy for ANPP over the study period: 2001-2015. Growing season ANPP in the arid zone (100-300 mm yr-1) was found to be rather insensitive to variations in the seasonal-rainfall metrics, whereas vegetation in the semi-arid zone (300-700 mm yr-1) was significantly impacted by most metrics, especially by the number of rainy days and timing (onset and cessation) of the wet season. We analysed critical breakpoints for all metrics to test if vegetation response to changes in a given rainfall metric surpasses a threshold beyond which vegetation functioning is significantly altered. It was shown that growing season ANPP was particularly negatively impacted after > 14 consecutive dry days and that a rainfall intensity of ˜ 13 mm day-1 was detected for optimum growing season ANPP. We conclude that the number of rainy days and the timing of the wet season are seasonal-rainfall metrics that are decisive for favourable vegetation growth in the semi-arid Sahel and need to be considered when modelling primary productivity from rainfall in the drylands of the Sahel and elsewhere.

Enhanced Orographic Tropical Rainfall: An Study of the Colombia's rainfall

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Peñaranda, V. M.; Hoyos Ortiz, C. D.; Mesa, O. J.

2015-12-01

Convection in tropical regions may be enhanced by orographic barriers. The orographic enhancement is an intensification of rain rates caused by the forced lifting of air over a mountainous structure. Orographic heavy rainfall events, occasionally, comes along by flooding, debris flow and substantial amount of looses, either economics or human lives. Most of the heavy convective rainfall events, occurred in Colombia, have left a lot of victims and material damages by flash flooding. An urgent action is required by either scientific communities or society, helping to find preventive solutions against these kind of events. Various scientific literature reports address the feedback process between the convection and the local orographic structures. The orographic enhancement could arise by several physical mechanism: precipitation transport on leeward side, convection triggered by the forcing of air over topography, the seeder-feeder mechanism, among others. The identification of the physical mechanisms for orographic enhancement of rainfall has not been studied over Colombia. As far as we know, orographic convective tropical rainfall is just the main factor for the altitudinal belt of maximum precipitation, but the lack of detailed hydro-meteorological measurements have precluded a complete understanding of the tropical rainfall in Colombia and its complex terrain. The emergence of the multifractal theory for rainfall has opened a field of research which builds a framework for parsimonious modeling of physical process. Studies about the scaling behavior of orographic rainfall have found some modulating functions between the rainfall intensity probability distribution and the terrain elevation. The overall objective is to advance in the understanding of the orographic influence over the Colombian tropical rainfall based on observations and scaling-analysis techniques. We use rainfall maps, weather radars scans and ground-based rainfall data. The research strategy is the analysis of rainfall fields via first-order statistical properties, scaling functions, structure functions and spectral analysis, taking into account cloud-motion directions over mountainous slopes (windward/leeward side) and timing of the diurnal cycle. The analysis is developed for some Colombia's locations.

Heavy snowfall damage Virginia pine

Treesearch

Richard H. Fenton

1959-01-01

In the Coastal Plain from Virginia to Pennsylvania, snowstorms heavy enough to damage trees are unusual. Weather Bureau records for the general area show that heavy snowfall - 8 to 25 inches in a single storm - occurs at an average frequency of about once in 7 years.

Long term changes in flooding and heavy rainfall associated with North Atlantic tropical cyclones: Roles of the North Atlantic Oscillation and El Niño-Southern Oscillation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Aryal, Yog N.; Villarini, Gabriele; Zhang, Wei; Vecchi, Gabriel A.

2018-04-01

The aim of this study is to examine the contribution of North Atlantic tropical cyclones (TCs) to flooding and heavy rainfall across the continental United States. Analyses highlight the spatial variability in these hazards, their temporal changes in terms of frequency and magnitude, and their connection to large-scale climate, in particular to the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO). We use long-term stream and rain gage measurements, and our analyses are based on annual maxima (AMs) and peaks-over-threshold (POTs). TCs contribute to ∼20-30% of AMs and POTs over Florida and coastal areas of the eastern United States, and the contribution decreases as we move inland. We do not detect statistically significant trends in the magnitude or frequency of TC floods. Regarding the role of climate, NAO and ENSO do not play a large role in controlling the frequency and magnitude of TC flooding. The connection between heavy rainfall and TCs is comparable to what observed in terms of flooding. Unlike flooding, NAO plays a significant role in TC-related extreme rainfall along the U.S. East Coast, while ENSO is most strongly linked to the TC precipitation in Texas.

Automatic Detection and Vulnerability Analysis of Areas Endangered by Heavy Rain

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Krauß, Thomas; Fischer, Peter

2016-08-01

In this paper we present a new method for fully automatic detection and derivation of areas endangered by heavy rainfall based only on digital elevation models. Tracking news show that the majority of occuring natural hazards are flood events. So already many flood prediction systems were developed. But most of these existing systems for deriving areas endangered by flooding events are based only on horizontal and vertical distances to existing rivers and lakes. Typically such systems take not into account dangers arising directly from heavy rain events. In a study conducted by us together with a german insurance company a new approach for detection of areas endangered by heavy rain was proven to give a high correlation of the derived endangered areas and the losses claimed at the insurance company. Here we describe three methods for classification of digital terrain models and analyze their usability for automatic detection and vulnerability analysis for areas endangered by heavy rainfall and analyze the results using the available insurance data.

Reconstruction of rainfall in Zafra (southwest Spain) from 1750 to 1840 from documentary sources

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fernández-Fernández, M. I.; Gallego, M. C.; Domínguez-Castro, F.; Vaquero, J. M.; Moreno González, J. M.; Castillo Durán, J.

2011-11-01

This work presents the first high-resolution reconstruction of rainfall in southwestern Spain during the period 1750-1840. The weather descriptions used are weekly reports describing the most relevant events that occurred in the Duchy of Feria. An index was defined to characterise the weekly rainfall. Monthly indices were obtained by summing the corresponding weekly indices, obtaining cumulative monthly rainfall indices. The reconstruction method consisted of establishing a linear correlation between the monthly rainfall index and monthly instrumental data (1960-1990). The correlation coefficients were greater than 0.80 for all months. The rainfall reconstruction showed major variability similar to natural variability. The reconstructed rainfall series in Zafra was compared with the rainfall series of Cadiz, Gibraltar and Lisbon for the period 1750-1840, with all four series found to have a similar pattern. The influence of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) on the winter rainfall reconstruction was found to behave similarly to that of modern times. Other studies described are of the SLP values over the entire North Atlantic in the months with extreme values of rainfall, and unusual meteorological events (hail, frost, storms and snowfall) in the reports of the Duchy of Feria.

Weather model performance on extreme rainfall events simulation's over Western Iberian Peninsula

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pereira, S. C.; Carvalho, A. C.; Ferreira, J.; Nunes, J. P.; Kaiser, J. J.; Rocha, A.

2012-08-01

This study evaluates the performance of the WRF-ARW numerical weather model in simulating the spatial and temporal patterns of an extreme rainfall period over a complex orographic region in north-central Portugal. The analysis was performed for the December month of 2009, during the Portugal Mainland rainy season. The heavy rainfall to extreme heavy rainfall periods were due to several low surface pressure's systems associated with frontal surfaces. The total amount of precipitation for December exceeded, in average, the climatological mean for the 1971-2000 time period in +89 mm, varying from 190 mm (south part of the country) to 1175 mm (north part of the country). Three model runs were conducted to assess possible improvements in model performance: (1) the WRF-ARW is forced with the initial fields from a global domain model (RunRef); (2) data assimilation for a specific location (RunObsN) is included; (3) nudging is used to adjust the analysis field (RunGridN). Model performance was evaluated against an observed hourly precipitation dataset of 15 rainfall stations using several statistical parameters. The WRF-ARW model reproduced well the temporal rainfall patterns but tended to overestimate precipitation amounts. The RunGridN simulation provided the best results but model performance of the other two runs was good too, so that the selected extreme rainfall episode was successfully reproduced.

Comparisons of Rain Estimates from Ground Radar and Satellite Over Mountainous Regions

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lin, Xin; Kidd, Chris; Tao, Jing; Barros, Ana

2016-01-01

A high-resolution rainfall product merging surface radar and an enhanced gauge network is used as a reference to examine two operational surface radar rainfall products over mountain areas. The two operational rainfall products include radar-only and conventional-gauge-corrected radar rainfall products. Statistics of rain occurrence and rain amount including their geographical, seasonal, and diurnal variations are examined using 3-year data. It is found that the three surface radar rainfall products in general agree well with one another over mountainous regions in terms of horizontal mean distributions of rain occurrence and rain amount. Frequency of rain occurrence and fraction of rain amount also indicate similar distribution patterns as a function of rain intensity. The diurnal signals of precipitation over mountain ridges are well captured and joint distributions of coincident raining samples indicate reasonable correlations during both summer and winter. Factors including undetected low-level precipitation, limited availability of gauges for correcting the Z-R relationship over the mountains, and radar beam blocking by mountains are clearly noticed in the two conventional radar rainfall products. Both radar-only and conventional-gauge-corrected radar rainfall products underestimate the rain occurrence and fraction of rain amount at intermediate and heavy rain intensities. Comparison of PR and TMI against a surface radar-only rainfall product indicates that the PR performs equally well with the high-resolution radar-only rainfall product over complex terrains at intermediate and heavy rain intensities during the summer and winter. TMI, on the other hand, requires improvement to retrieve wintertime precipitation over mountain areas.

Abnormal Uterine Bleeding

MedlinePlus

... abnormal uterine bleeding? Abnormal uterine bleeding is any heavy or unusual bleeding from the uterus (through your ... one symptom of abnormal uterine bleeding. Having extremely heavy bleeding during your period can also be considered ...

Characterizing fluvial heavy metal pollutions under different rainfall conditions: Implication for aquatic environment protection.

PubMed

Zhang, Lixun; Zhao, Bo; Xu, Gang; Guan, Yuntao

2018-09-01

Globally, fluvial heavy metal (HM) pollution has recently become an increasingly severe problem. However, few studies have investigated the variational characteristics of fluvial HMs after rain over long periods (≥1 year). The Dakan River in Xili Reservoir watershed (China) was selected as a case study to investigate pollution levels, influencing factors, and sources of HMs under different rainfall conditions during 2015 and 2016. Fluvial HMs showed evident spatiotemporal variations attributable to the coupled effects of pollution generation and rainfall diffusion. Fluvial HM concentrations were significantly associated with rainfall characteristics (e.g., rainfall intensity, rainfall amount, and antecedent dry period) and river flow, which influenced the generation and the transmission of fluvial HMs in various ways. Moreover, this interrelationship depended considerably on the HM type and particle size distribution. Mn, Pb, Cr, and Ni were major contributors to high values of the comprehensive pollution index; therefore, they should be afforded special attention. Additionally, quantitative source apportionment of fluvial HMs was conducted by combining principal component analysis with multiple linear regression and chemical mass balance models to obtain comprehensive source profiles. Finally, an environment-friendly control strategy coupling "source elimination" and "transport barriers" was proposed for aquatic environment protection. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Censored rainfall modelling for estimation of fine-scale extremes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cross, David; Onof, Christian; Winter, Hugo; Bernardara, Pietro

2018-01-01

Reliable estimation of rainfall extremes is essential for drainage system design, flood mitigation, and risk quantification. However, traditional techniques lack physical realism and extrapolation can be highly uncertain. In this study, we improve the physical basis for short-duration extreme rainfall estimation by simulating the heavy portion of the rainfall record mechanistically using the Bartlett-Lewis rectangular pulse (BLRP) model. Mechanistic rainfall models have had a tendency to underestimate rainfall extremes at fine temporal scales. Despite this, the simple process representation of rectangular pulse models is appealing in the context of extreme rainfall estimation because it emulates the known phenomenology of rainfall generation. A censored approach to Bartlett-Lewis model calibration is proposed and performed for single-site rainfall from two gauges in the UK and Germany. Extreme rainfall estimation is performed for each gauge at the 5, 15, and 60 min resolutions, and considerations for censor selection discussed.

Rainfall as a trigger for stratification and winter phytoplankton growth in temperate shelf seas

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jardine, Jenny; Palmer, Matthew; Mahaffey, Claire; Holt, Jason; Mellor, Adam; Wakelin, Sarah

2017-04-01

We present new data from ocean gliders to investigate physical controls on stratification and phytoplankton dynamics, collected in the Celtic Sea between November 2014 and August 2015 as part of the UK Shelf Sea Biogeochemistry programme. This presentation focuses on the winter period (Jan-March) when the diurnal heating cycle results in regular but weak near surface stratification followed by night-time convection. Despite low light conditions, this daily cycle often promotes a daytime increase in observed chlorophyll fluorescence, indicative of phytoplankton growth. This daily cycle is occasionally interrupted when buoyancy inputs are sufficient to outcompete night-time convection and result in short-term periods of sustained winter stratification, typically lasting 2-3 days. Sustained stratification often coincides with periods of heavy rainfall, suggesting freshwater input from precipitation may play a role on these events by producing a subtle yet significant freshening of the surface layer of the order of 0.005 PSU. Comparing rainfall estimates with observed salinity changes confirms rainfall to often be the initiator of these winter stratification periods. As winter winds subside and solar heating increases towards spring, the water column becomes more susceptible to periods of halo-stratification, such that heavy rainfall during the winter-spring transition is likely to promote sustained stratification. The timing and extent of a heavy rainfall event in March 2015 does suggest it may be the critical trigger for shelf-wide stratification that eventually instigates the spring bloom. We propose that the timing of these downpours relative to the daily heating cycle can be a triggering mechanism for both short term and seasonal stratification in shelf seas, and so play a critical role in winter and early spring phytoplankton growth and the shelf sea carbon cycle. We further test the importance of this process using historical data, and results from the NEMO-AMM7 model to test how rainfall events have affected previous winter and spring conditions.

Rainstorms able to induce flash floods in a Mediterranean-climate region (Calabria, southern Italy)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Terranova, O. G.; Gariano, S. L.

2014-03-01

Heavy rainstorms often induce flash flooding, one of the natural disasters most responsible for damage to man-made infrastructure and loss of lives, adversely affecting also the opportunities for socio-economic development of Mediterranean Countries. The frequently dramatic damage of flash floods are often detected with sufficient accuracy by post-event surveys, but rainfall causing them are still only roughly characterized. With the aim of improving the understanding of the temporal structure and spatial distribution of heavy rainstorms in the Mediterranean context, a statistical analysis was carried out in Calabria (southern Italy) concerning rainstorms that mainly induced flash floods, but also shallow landslides and debris-flows. Thus a method is proposed - based on the overcoming of heuristically predetermined threshold values of cumulated rainfall, maximum intensity, and kinetic energy of the rainfall event - to select and characterize the rainstorms able to induce flash floods in the Mediterranean-climate Countries. Therefore the obtained (heavy) rainstorms were automatically classified and studied according to their structure in time, localization and extension. Rainfall-runoff watershed models can consequently benefit from the enhanced identification of design storms, with a realistic time structure integrated with the results of the spatial analysis. A survey of flash flood events recorded in the last decades provides a preliminary validation of the method proposed to identify the heavy rainstorms and synthetically describe their characteristics. The notable size of the employed sample, including data with a very detailed resolution in time, that relate to several rain gauges well-distributed throughout the region, give robustness to the obtained results.

Rainstorms able to induce flash floods in a Mediterranean-climate region (Calabria, southern Italy)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Terranova, O. G.; Gariano, S. L.

2014-09-01

Heavy rainstorms often induce flash flooding, one of the natural disasters most responsible for damage to man-made infrastructures and loss of lives, also adversely affecting the opportunities for socio-economic development of Mediterranean countries. The frequently dramatic damage of flash floods are often detected, with sufficient accuracy, by post-event surveys, but rainfall causing them are still only roughly characterized. With the aim of improving the understanding of the temporal structure and spatial distribution of heavy rainstorms in the Mediterranean context, a statistical analysis was carried out in Calabria (southern Italy) concerning rainstorms that mainly induced flash floods, but also shallow landslides and debris flows. Thus, a method is proposed - based on the overcoming of heuristically predetermined threshold values of cumulated rainfall, maximum intensity, and kinetic energy of the rainfall event - to select and characterize the rainstorms able to induce flash floods in the Mediterranean-climate countries. Therefore, the obtained (heavy) rainstorms were automatically classified and studied according to their structure in time, localization, and extension. Rainfall-runoff watershed models can consequently benefit from the enhanced identification of design storms, with a realistic time structure integrated with the results of the spatial analysis. A survey of flash flood events recorded in the last decades provides a preliminary validation of the method proposed to identify the heavy rainstorms and synthetically describe their characteristics. The notable size of the employed sample, including data with a very detailed resolution in time that relate to several rain gauges well-distributed throughout the region, gives robustness to the obtained results.

Understanding Regional Effects on Climate Change and Multidisciplinary Approarch for Coping Strategies - Case Study at Rural Village in Sub-Saharan Africa -

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yoshimura, M.; Yamashita, M.

2018-04-01

This paper describes on understanding the regional effects on global climate change and subsistence farmers' coping strategies through our field investigation and multidimensional data analysis from the resilience point of view. The major research question of this study is to understand what actions villagers took as the coping strategy against the heavy rainfall shock caused by climate change. Our research interest is how geospatial information technique can contribute to this research question. The study area is located in Sinazongwe district, Southern province of Zambia. As for the field investigation, we set the study sites A, B and C where are located in the lower terrace, middle escarpment and upper terrace, respectively. In the rainy season of 2007/2008, our study site had a heavy rainfall and many crop fields were damaged. In this crop year, the annual rainfalls in site A and C were 1442 mm/year and 1332 mm/year respectively. This is about two times different with the long term average of rainfall 694.9 mm/year in Sinazongwe district. It is confirmed that approximately 20 % of crop fields were damaged by heavy rainfall through our field investigation. It was so severe negative consequences for all of villages because about 80 % of whole damaged crop fields were maize fields. Maize is staple food in this region. Here, we have analysed and discussed how villagers cope from the serious damage of crops. The maize harvest varies every year depending on rainfall and topographic position. If a farmer possesses maize fields at various topographic positions, they can avoid severe negative consequences of climate variability such as drought or heavy rainfall. However, not all farmers have access to fields at various topographic positions. It is important to know where each household's characteristics when we consider their strategy of livelihood for climate variabilities. Through this study, we confirmed the way to strengthen resilience of subsistence farmers as follows: it is necessary to prepare variable crops and emergency food stock with not only diverse but also composite social institution. The resilient society seems to be the society with insurance such as adaptation ability against environmental shock caused by climate change. From the agricultural production point of view, both diversity and yield ability are also important.

Watershed soil Cd loss after long-term agricultural practice and biochar amendment under four rainfall levels.

PubMed

Ouyang, Wei; Huang, Weijia; Hao, Xin; Tysklind, Mats; Haglund, Peter; Hao, Fanghua

2017-10-01

Some heavy metals in farmland soil can be transported into the waterbody, affecting the water quality and sediment at the watershed outlet, which can be used to determine the historical loss pattern. Cd is a typical heavy metal leached from farmland that is related to phosphate fertilizers and carries serious environmental risk. The spatial-vertical pattern of Cd in soil and the vertical trend of Cd in the river sediment core were analyzed, which showed the migration and accumulation of Cd in the watershed. To prevent watershed Cd loss, biochar was employed, and leaching experiments were conducted to investigate the Cd loss from soil depending on the initial concentration. Four rainfall intensities, 1.25 mm/h, 2.50 mm/h, 5.00 mm/h, and 10.00 mm/h, were used to simulate typical rainfall scenarios for the study area. Biochar was prepared from corn straw after pretreatment with ammonium dihydrogen phosphate (ADP) and pyrolysis at 400 °C under anoxic conditions. To identify the effects of biochar amendment on Cd migration, the biochar was mixed with soil for 90 days at concentrations of 0%, 0.5%, 1.0%, 3.0%, and 5.0% soil by weight. The results showed that the Cd leaching load increased as the initial load and rainfall intensity increased and that eluviation caused surface Cd to diffuse to the deep soils. The biochar application caused more of the heavy metals to be immobilized in the amended soil rather than transported into the waterbody. The sorption efficiency of the biochar for Cd increased as the addition level increased to 3%, which showed better performance than the 5% addition level under some initial concentration and rainfall conditions. The research indicated that biochar is a potential material to prevent diffuse heavy metal pollution and that a lower addition makes the application more feasible. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Relationship between convective clouds and precipitation over the Qinghai-Xizang Plateau area from satellite remote sensing and ground-based observations

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hung, R. J.; Liu, J. M.; Tsao, D. Y.; Smith, R. E.

1985-01-01

Results of this study show that heavy rainfall in the Qinghai-Xizang Plateau area is usually preceded by a high growth rate of the convective clouds followed by a rapid collapse of the cloud top. The tops of the convective clouds associated with heavy rainfall over the plateau usually lie between the altitudes of the two tropopauses which exist over the plateau. Undoubtedly the double tropopause restricts the vertical growth of the clouds and this may be the reason why tornadoes rarely occur there.

Skill of Predicting Heavy Rainfall Over India: Improvement in Recent Years Using UKMO Global Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sharma, Kuldeep; Ashrit, Raghavendra; Bhatla, R.; Mitra, A. K.; Iyengar, G. R.; Rajagopal, E. N.

2017-11-01

The quantitative precipitation forecast (QPF) performance for heavy rains is still a challenge, even for the most advanced state-of-art high-resolution Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) modeling systems. This study aims to evaluate the performance of UK Met Office Unified Model (UKMO) over India for prediction of high rainfall amounts (>2 and >5 cm/day) during the monsoon period (JJAS) from 2007 to 2015 in short range forecast up to Day 3. Among the various modeling upgrades and improvements in the parameterizations during this period, the model horizontal resolution has seen an improvement from 40 km in 2007 to 17 km in 2015. Skill of short range rainfall forecast has improved in UKMO model in recent years mainly due to increased horizontal and vertical resolution along with improved physics schemes. Categorical verification carried out using the four verification metrics, namely, probability of detection (POD), false alarm ratio (FAR), frequency bias (Bias) and Critical Success Index, indicates that QPF has improved by >29 and >24% in case of POD and FAR. Additionally, verification scores like EDS (Extreme Dependency Score), EDI (Extremal Dependence Index) and SEDI (Symmetric EDI) are used with special emphasis on verification of extreme and rare rainfall events. These scores also show an improvement by 60% (EDS) and >34% (EDI and SEDI) during the period of study, suggesting an improved skill of predicting heavy rains.

Effects of rainfall patterns on toxic cyanobacterial blooms in a changing climate: between simplistic scenarios and complex dynamics.

PubMed

Reichwaldt, Elke S; Ghadouani, Anas

2012-04-01

Toxic cyanobacterial blooms represent a serious hazard to environmental and human health, and the management and restoration of affected waterbodies can be challenging. While cyanobacterial blooms are already a frequent occurrence, in the future their incidence and severity are predicted to increase due to climate change. Climate change is predicted to lead to increased temperature and changes in rainfall patterns, which will both have a significant impact on inland water resources. While many studies indicate that a higher temperature will favour cyanobacterial bloom occurrences, the impact of changed rainfall patterns is widely under-researched and therefore less understood. This review synthesizes the predicted changes in rainfall patterns and their potential impact on inland waterbodies, and identifies mechanisms that influence the occurrence and severity of toxic cyanobacterial blooms. It is predicted that there will be a higher frequency and intensity of rainfall events with longer drought periods in between. Such changes in the rainfall patterns will lead to favourable conditions for cyanobacterial growth due to a greater nutrient input into waterbodies during heavy rainfall events, combined with potentially longer periods of high evaporation and stratification. These conditions are likely to lead to an acceleration of the eutrophication process and prolonged warm periods without mixing of the water column. However, the frequent occurrence of heavy rain events can also lead to a temporary disruption of cyanobacterial blooms due to flushing and de-stratification, and large storm events have been shown to have a long-term negative effect on cyanobacterial blooms. In contrast, a higher number of small rainfall events or wet days can lead to proliferation of cyanobacteria, as they can rapidly use nutrients that are added during rainfall events, especially if stratification remains unchanged. With rainfall patterns changing, cyanobacterial toxin concentration in waterbodies is expected to increase. Firstly, this is due to accelerated eutrophication which supports higher cyanobacterial biomass. Secondly, predicted changes in rainfall patterns produce more favourable growth conditions for cyanobacteria, which is likely to increase the toxin production rate. However, the toxin concentration in inland waterbodies will also depend on the effect of rainfall events on cyanobacterial strain succession, a process that is still little understood. Low light conditions after heavy rainfall events might favour non-toxic strains, whilst inorganic nutrient input might promote the dominance of toxic strains in blooms. This review emphasizes that the impact of changes in rainfall patterns is very complex and will strongly depend on the site-specific dynamics, cyanobacterial species composition and cyanobacterial strain succession. More effort is needed to understand the relationship between rainfall patterns and cyanobacterial bloom dynamics, and in particular toxin production, to be able to assess and mediate the significant threat cyanobacterial blooms pose to our water resources. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

A preliminary look at AVE-SESAME 5 conducted on 20-21 May 1979

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

July, M.; Turner, R. E.

1981-01-01

Information on data collected, synoptic conditions, and severe and unusual weather reported during the period are presented. Records of the synoptic conditions include synoptic charts, radar charts, satellite photographs, and rainfall observations.

Evaluation of Rainfall-induced Landslide Potential

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chen, Y. R.; Tsai, K. J.; Chen, J. W.; Chue, Y. S.; Lu, Y. C.; Lin, C. W.

2016-12-01

Due to Taiwan's steep terrain, rainfall-induced landslides often occur and lead to human causalities and properties loss. Taiwan's government has invested huge reconstruction funds to the affected areas. However, after rehabilitation they still face the risk of secondary sediment disasters. Therefore, this study assessed rainfall-induced landslide potential and spatial distribution in some watersheds of Southern Taiwan to configure reasonable assessment process and methods for landslide potential. This study focused on the multi-year multi-phase heavy rainfall events after 2009 Typhoon Morakot and applied the analysis techniques for the classification of satellite images of research region before and after rainfall to obtain surface information and hazard log data. GIS and DEM were employed to obtain the ridge and water system and to explore characteristics of landslide distribution. A multivariate hazards evaluation method was applied to quantitatively analyze the weights of various hazard factors. Furthermore, the interaction between rainfall characteristic, slope disturbance and landslide mechanism was analyzed. The results of image classification show that the values of coefficient of agreement are at medium-high level. The agreement of landslide potential map is at around 80% level compared with historical disaster sites. The relations between landslide potential level, slope disturbance degree, and the ratio of number and area of landslide increment corresponding heavy rainfall events are positive. The ratio of landslide occurrence is proportional to the value of instability index. Moreover, for each rainfall event, the number and scale of secondary landslide sites are much more than those of new landslide sites. The greater the slope land disturbance, the more likely it is that the scale of secondary landslide become greater. The spatial distribution of landslide depends on the interaction of rainfall patterns, slope, and elevation of the research area.

Multi-century cool- and warm-season rainfall reconstructions for Australia's major climatic regions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Freund, Mandy; Henley, Benjamin J.; Karoly, David J.; Allen, Kathryn J.; Baker, Patrick J.

2017-11-01

Australian seasonal rainfall is strongly affected by large-scale ocean-atmosphere climate influences. In this study, we exploit the links between these precipitation influences, regional rainfall variations, and palaeoclimate proxies in the region to reconstruct Australian regional rainfall between four and eight centuries into the past. We use an extensive network of palaeoclimate records from the Southern Hemisphere to reconstruct cool (April-September) and warm (October-March) season rainfall in eight natural resource management (NRM) regions spanning the Australian continent. Our bi-seasonal rainfall reconstruction aligns well with independent early documentary sources and existing reconstructions. Critically, this reconstruction allows us, for the first time, to place recent observations at a bi-seasonal temporal resolution into a pre-instrumental context, across the entire continent of Australia. We find that recent 30- and 50-year trends towards wetter conditions in tropical northern Australia are highly unusual in the multi-century context of our reconstruction. Recent cool-season drying trends in parts of southern Australia are very unusual, although not unprecedented, across the multi-century context. We also use our reconstruction to investigate the spatial and temporal extent of historical drought events. Our reconstruction reveals that the spatial extent and duration of the Millennium Drought (1997-2009) appears either very much below average or unprecedented in southern Australia over at least the last 400 years. Our reconstruction identifies a number of severe droughts over the past several centuries that vary widely in their spatial footprint, highlighting the high degree of diversity in historical droughts across the Australian continent. We document distinct characteristics of major droughts in terms of their spatial extent, duration, intensity, and seasonality. Compared to the three largest droughts in the instrumental period (Federation Drought, 1895-1903; World War II Drought, 1939-1945; and the Millennium Drought, 1997-2005), we find that the historically documented Settlement Drought (1790-1793), Sturt's Drought (1809-1830) and the Goyder Line Drought (1861-1866) actually had more regionalised patterns and reduced spatial extents. This seasonal rainfall reconstruction provides a new opportunity to understand Australian rainfall variability by contextualising severe droughts and recent trends in Australia.

The analysis of the possibility of using 10-minute rainfall series to determine the maximum rainfall amount with 5 minutes duration

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kaźmierczak, Bartosz; Wartalska, Katarzyna; Wdowikowski, Marcin; Kotowski, Andrzej

2017-11-01

Modern scientific research in the area of heavy rainfall analysis regarding to the sewerage design indicates the need to develop and use probabilistic rain models. One of the issues that remains to be resolved is the length of the shortest amount of rain to be analyzed. It is commonly believed that the best time is 5 minutes, while the least rain duration measured by the national services is often 10 or even 15 minutes. Main aim of this paper is to present the difference between probabilistic rainfall models results given from rainfall time series including and excluding 5 minutes rainfall duration. Analysis were made for long-time period from 1961-2010 on polish meteorological station Legnica. To develop best fitted to measurement rainfall data probabilistic model 4 probabilistic distributions were used. Results clearly indicates that models including 5 minutes rainfall duration remains more appropriate to use.

Synoptic environment associated with heavy rainfall events on the coastland of Northeast Brazil

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Oliveira, P. T.; Lima, K. C.; Silva, C. M. Santos e.

2013-07-01

Northeast Brazil (NEB) has an extensive coastal area, often hit by natural disasters that bring many social and economic losses. The objective of this work was to study the synoptic environment associated with a heavy rainfall event (HRE) on the coastland of NEB. We used daily rainfall data for coastal area of NEB between the states of Rio Grande do Norte and Bahia, divided into two subregions: north and south coastland. This data was obtained from the hydrometeorological network managed by the Agência Nacional de Águas and the daily data reanalysis from the ERAInterim. For the selection of HRE the technique of quantiles was used, thus defined HRE where at least one rain gauge recorded rainfall above 95th percentile. The interannual distribution of events showed occurrence maximum in La Niña years and minimal in El Niño years. The results suggest that the HRE were formed mainly due to the action of upper-level cyclonic vortex, in hight levels, and due to the action to South Atlantic convergence zone, in low levels.

Association between heavy precipitation events and waterborne outbreaks in four Nordic countries, 1992-2012.

PubMed

Guzman Herrador, Bernardo; de Blasio, Birgitte Freiesleben; Carlander, Anneli; Ethelberg, Steen; Hygen, Hans Olav; Kuusi, Markku; Lund, Vidar; Löfdahl, Margareta; MacDonald, Emily; Martinez-Urtaza, Jaime; Nichols, Gordon; Schönning, Caroline; Sudre, Bertrand; Trönnberg, Linda; Vold, Line; Semenza, Jan C; Nygård, Karin

2016-12-01

We conducted a matched case-control study to examine the association between heavy precipitation events and waterborne outbreaks (WBOs) by linking epidemiological registries and meteorological data between 1992 and 2012 in four Nordic countries. Heavy precipitation events were defined by above average (exceedance) daily rainfall during the preceding weeks using local references. We performed conditional logistic regression using the four previous years as the controls. Among WBOs with known onset date (n = 89), exceedance rainfall on two or more days was associated with occurrence of outbreak, OR = 3.06 (95% CI 1.38-6.78), compared to zero exceedance days. Stratified analyses revealed a significant association with single household water supplies, ground water as source and for outbreaks occurring during spring and summer. These findings were reproduced in analyses including all WBOs with known outbreak month (n = 186). The vulnerability of single households to WBOs associated with heavy precipitation events should be communicated to homeowners and implemented into future policy planning to reduce the risk of waterborne illness.

Recognition and management of rodent-borne infectious disease outbreaks after heavy rainfall and flooding.

PubMed

Diaz, James H

2014-01-01

Climatic events, especially heavy rains and flooding following periods of relative drought, have precipitated both arthropod-borne and rodent-borne infectious disease outbreaks. Heavy rainfall encourages excessive wild grass seed production that supports increased outdoor rodent populations, and flooding forces rodents from their burrows near water sources into the built environment and closer to humans. The objectives of this review are to alert clinicians to the climatic conditions common to hurricane-prone regions, such as Louisiana, that can precipitate outbreaks of the two rodent-borne diseases most often associated with periods of heavy rainfall and flooding, leptospirosis (LS) and hantavirus pulmonary syndrome (HPS). It will also describe the epidemiology, presenting clinical manifestations and outcomes of these rodent-borne infectious diseases, and recommend both prophylactic therapies and effective control and prevention strategies for rodent-borne infectious disease outbreaks. Healthcare providers should maintain high levels of suspicion for LS in patients developing febrile illnesses after contaminated freshwater exposures during flooding or recreational events, and for HPS in patients with febrile illnesses that progress rapidly to respiratory failure following rodent exposures in enclosed spaces. Public health educational strategies should encourage limiting human contact with all wild and peridomestic rats and mice, avoiding all contact with rodent excreta, safely disposing of all rodent excreta, and modifying the built environment to deter rodents from colonizing households and workplaces.

Characteristics of the event mean concentration (EMC) from rainfall runoff on an urban highway.

PubMed

Lee, Ju Young; Kim, Hyoungjun; Kim, Youngjin; Han, Moo Young

2011-04-01

The purpose of this study was to investigate the characterization of the event mean concentration (EMC) of runoff during heavy precipitation events on highways. Highway runoff quality data were collected from the 7th highway, in South Korea during 2007-2009. The samples were analyzed for runoff quantity and quality parameters such as COD(cr), TSS, TPHs, TKN, NO₃, TP, PO₄ and six heavy metals, e.g., As, Cu, Cd, Ni, Pb and Zn. Analysis of resulting hydrographs and pollutant graphs indicates that the peak of the pollutant concentrations in runoff occurs 20 min after the first rainfall runoff occurrence. The first flush effect depends on the preceding dry period and the rainfall intensity. The results of this study can be used as a reference for water quality management of urban highways. Crown Copyright © 2010. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Spatial structure of monthly rainfall measurements average over 25 years and trends of the hourly variability of a current rainy day in Rwanda.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nduwayezu, Emmanuel; Kanevski, Mikhail; Jaboyedoff, Michel

2013-04-01

Climate plays a vital role in a wide range of socio-economic activities of most nations particularly of developing countries. Climate (rainfall) plays a central role in agriculture which is the main stay of the Rwandan economy and community livelihood and activities. The majority of the Rwandan population (81,1% in 2010) relies on rain fed agriculture for their livelihoods, and the impacts of variability in climate patterns are already being felt. Climate-related events like heavy rainfall or too little rainfall are becoming more frequent and are impacting on human wellbeing.The torrential rainfall that occurs every year in Rwanda could disturb the circulation for many days, damages houses, infrastructures and causes heavy economic losses and deaths. Four rainfall seasons have been identified, corresponding to the four thermal Earth ones in the south hemisphere: the normal season (summer), the rainy season (autumn), the dry season (winter) and the normo-rainy season (spring). Globally, the spatial rainfall decreasing from West to East, especially in October (spring) and February (summer) suggests an «Atlantic monsoon influence» while the homogeneous spatial rainfall distribution suggests an «Inter-tropical front» mechanism. What is the hourly variability in this mountainous area? Is there any correlation with the identified zones of the monthly average series (from 1965 to 1990 established by the Rwandan meteorological services)? Where could we have hazards with several consecutive rainy days (using forecasted datas from the Norwegian Meteorological Institute)? Spatio-temporal analysis allows for identifying and explaining large-scale anomalies which are useful for understanding hydrological characteristics and subsequently predicting these hydrological events. The objective of our current research (Rainfall variability) is to proceed to an evaluation of the potential rainfall risk by applying advanced geospatial modelling tools in Rwanda: geostatistical predictions and simulations, machine learning algorithm (different types of neural networks) and GIS. Hybrid models - mixing geostatistics and machine learning, will be applied to study spatial non-stationarity of rainfall fields. The research will include rainfalls variability mapping and probabilistic analyses of extreme events. Key words: rainfall variability, Rwanda, extreme event, model, mapping, geostatistics.

Assessing Possible Anthropogenic Contributions to the Rainfall Extremes Associated with Typhoon Morakot (2009)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chen, C. T.; Lo, S. H.; Wang, C. C.

2014-12-01

More than 2000 mm rainfall occurred over southern Taiwan when a category 1 Typhoon Morakot pass through Taiwan in early August 2009. Entire village and hundred of people were buried by massive mudslides induced by record-breaking precipitation. Whether the past anthropogenic warming played a significant role in such extreme event remained very controversial. On one hand, people argue it's nearly impossible to attribute an individual extreme event to global warming. On the other hand, the increase of heavy rainfall is consistent with the expected effects of climate change on tropical cyclone. To diagnose possible anthropogenic contributions to the odds of such heavy rainfall associated with Typhoon Morakot, we adapt an existing event attribution framework of modeling a 'world that was' and comparing it to a modeled 'world that might have been' for that same time but for the absence of historical anthropogenic drivers of climate. One limitation for applying such approach to high-impact weather system is that it will require models capable of capturing the essential processes lead to the studied extremes. Using a cloud system resolving model that can properly simulate the complicated interactions between tropical cyclone, large-scale background, topography, we first perform the ensemble 'world that was' simulations using high resolution ECMWF YOTC analysis. We then re-simulate, having adjusted the analysis to 'world that might have been conditions' by removing the regional atmospheric and oceanic forcing due to human influences estimated from the CMIP5 model ensemble mean conditions between all forcing and natural forcing only historical runs. Thus our findings are highly conditional on the driving analysis and adjustments therein, but the setup allows us to elucidate possible contribution of anthropogenic forcing to changes in the likelihood of heavy rainfall associated Typhoon Morakot in early August 2009.

Autochthonous Chikungunya Transmission and Extreme Climate Events in Southern France.

PubMed

Roiz, David; Boussès, Philippe; Simard, Frédéric; Paupy, Christophe; Fontenille, Didier

2015-06-01

Extreme precipitation events are increasing as a result of ongoing global warming, but controversy surrounds the relationship between flooding and mosquito-borne diseases. A common view among the scientific community and public health officers is that heavy rainfalls have a flushing effect on breeding sites, which negatively affects vector populations, thereby diminishing disease transmission. During 2014 in Montpellier, France, there were at least 11 autochthonous cases of chikungunya caused by the invasive tiger mosquito Aedes albopictus in the vicinity of an imported case. We show that an extreme rainfall event increased and extended the abundance of the disease vector Ae. albopictus, hence the period of autochthonous transmission of chikungunya. We report results from close monitoring of the adult and egg population of the chikungunya vector Ae. albopictus through weekly sampling over the entire mosquito breeding season, which revealed an unexpected pattern. Statistical analysis of the seasonal dynamics of female abundance in relation to climatic factors showed that these relationships changed after the heavy rainfall event. Before the inundations, accumulated temperatures are the most important variable predicting Ae. albopictus seasonal dynamics. However, after the inundations, accumulated rainfall over the 4 weeks prior to capture predicts the seasonal dynamics of this species and extension of the transmission period. Our empirical data suggests that heavy rainfall events did increase the risk of arbovirus transmission in Southern France in 2014 by favouring a rapid rise in abundance of vector mosquitoes. Further studies should now confirm these results in different ecological contexts, so that the impact of global change and extreme climatic events on mosquito population dynamics and the risk of disease transmission can be adequately understood.

Quantitative Assessment on Anthropogenic Contributions to the Rainfall Extremes Associated with Typhoon Morakot (2009)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chen, C. T.; Lo, S. H.; Wang, C. C.; Tsuboki, K.

2017-12-01

More than 2000 mm rainfall occurred over southern Taiwan when a category 1 Typhoon Morakot pass through Taiwan in early August 2009. Entire village and hundred of people were buried by massive mudslides induced by record-breaking precipitation. Whether the past anthropogenic warming played a significant role in such extreme event remained very controversial. On one hand, people argue it's nearly impossible to attribute an individual extreme event to global warming. On the other hand, the increase of heavy rainfall is consistent with the expected effects of climate change on tropical cyclone. To diagnose possible anthropogenic contributions to the odds of such heavy rainfall associated with Typhoon Morakot, we adapt an existing probabilistic event attribution framework to simulate a `world that was' and compare it with an alternative condition, 'world that might have been' that removed the historical anthropogenic drivers of climate. One limitation for applying such approach to high-impact weather system is that it will require models capable of capturing the essential processes lead to the studied extremes. Using a cloud system resolving model that can properly simulate the complicated interactions between tropical cyclone, large-scale background, topography, we first perform the ensemble `world that was' simulations using high resolution ECMWF YOTC analysis. We then re-simulate, having adjusted the analysis to `world that might have been conditions' by removing the regional atmospheric and oceanic forcing due to human influences estimated from the CMIP5 model ensemble mean conditions between all forcing and natural forcing only historical runs. Thus our findings are highly conditional on the driving analysis and adjustments therein, but the setup allows us to elucidate possible contribution of anthropogenic forcing to changes in the likelihood of heavy rainfall associated Typhoon Morakot in early August 2009.

Mountain Heavy Rainfall Measurement Experiments in a Subtropical Monsoon Environment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jong-Dao Jou, Ben; Chi-June Jung, Ultimate; Lai, Hsiao-Wei; Feng, Lei

2014-05-01

Quantitative rainfall measurement experiments have been conducted in Taiwan area for the past 5 years (since 2008), especially over the complex terrain region. In this paper, results from these experiments will be analyzed and discussed, especially those associated with heavy rain events in the summer monsoon season. Observations from s-band polarimetric radar (SPOL of NCAR) and also x-band vertically-pointing radar are analyzed to reveal the high resolution temporal and spatial variation of precipitation structure. May and June, the Meiyu season in the area, are months with subtropical frontal rainfall events. Mesoscale convective systems, i.e., pre-frontal squall lines and frontal convective rainbands, are very active and frequently produce heavy rain events over mountain areas. Accurate quantitative precipitation measurements are needed in order to meet the requirement for landslide and flood early warning purpose. Using ground-based disdrometers and vertically-pointing radar, we have been trying to modify the quantitative precipitation estimation in the mountain region by using coastal operational radar. In this paper, the methodology applied will be presented and the potential of its application will be discussed. *corresponding author: Ben Jong-Dao Jou, jouben43@gmail.com

The impacts of ;urban-induced heavy rains; on the distribution of deposition fluxes of inorganic acidic substances in the Tokyo metropolitan area in summer

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Uchiyama, Ryunosuke; Okochi, Hiroshi; Kamiya, Junichi; Asai, Daisuke; Kaneko, Chiho; Ogata, Hiroko; Katsumi, Naoya

2018-02-01

We analyzed the trends in rainfall amounts and the number of heavy rain events with hourly rainfall amounts over 30 mm at the inland section of the 23-ward Tokyo metropolitan area (nine wards and ten sites) in the warm season (July to September) from 1978 to 2008. Heavy rain events in the Nerima Ward occurred nine times during decade I (1978-1987; 0.90 times/yr), 13 times during decade II (1988-1997; 1.3 times/yr), and 23 times during decade III (1998-2008; 2.1 times/yr). The annual average number of heavy rain events was 1.43 times/yr in Nerima from 1978 to 2008, while it was 0.98 times/yr on average at nine locations excluding Nerima. The frequency of extremely strong heavy rain events with hourly rainfall amounts greater than 50 mm during decade III was the highest in Nerima (six times) among ten sites. These data suggest that the frequency of heavy rain events has increased at Nerima during the past 30 years. Bulk precipitation data were collected biweekly by filtration-type collectors at 14 sites around Nerima from 2008 to 2010 to determine the impacts of urban-induced heavy rains (hereafter UHR), defined as a heavy rain event other than typhoons and frontal heavy rains, on the distribution of deposition fluxes of inorganic acidic substances. The NO3- and nss-SO42 - concentrations in bulk precipitation were higher during the periods including UHR than those not including UHR. The deposition fluxes of NO3- and SO42 - showed clear differences at the center of UHR (NO3-: 231 μeq/m2/d, SO42 -: 234 μeq/m2/d) and its surrounding area (NO3-: 76.4 μeq/m2/d, SO42 -: 86.1 μeq/m2/d). Our results suggest that large amounts of inorganic acidic substances are deposited locally by UHR in urban areas in summer.

Characterization of rainfall events and correlation with reported disasters: A case in Cali, Colombia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Canon, C. C.; Tischbein, B.; Bogardi, J.

2017-12-01

Flood maps generally display the area that a river might overflow after a rainfall event takes place, under different scenarios of climate, land use/land cover, and/or failure of dams and dikes. However, rainfall is not limited to feed runoff and enlarge the river: it also causes minor disasters outside the map's highlighted area. The city of Cali in Colombia illustrates very well this situation: its flat topography and its major critical infrastructure near the river make it flood-risk prone; a heavy rainfall event would potentially deplete drinking water, electrical power and drainage capacity, and trigger outbreaks of water-borne diseases in the whole city, not only in the flooded area. Unfortunately, the government's disaster prevention strategies focus on the floodplain and usually overlook the aftermath of these minor disasters for being milder and scattered. Predicted losses in flood maps are potentially big, while those from minor disasters over the city are small but real, and citizens, utility companies and urban maintenance funds must constantly take them over. Mitigation and prevention of such minor disasters can save money for the development of the city in other aspects. This paper characterizes hundreds of rainfall events selected from 10-min step time series from 2006 to 2017, and finds their correlation with reported rainfall-related disasters throughout Cali, identified by date and neighborhood. Results show which rainfall parameters are most likely to indicate the occurrence of such disasters and their approximate location in the urban area of Cali. These results, when coupled with real-time observations of rainfall data and simulations of drainage network response, may help citizens and emergency bodies prioritize zones to assist during heavy storms. In the long term, stakeholders may also implement low impact development solutions in these zones to reduce flood risks.

Heavy rainfall and waterborne disease outbreaks: the Walkerton example.

PubMed

Auld, Heather; MacIver, D; Klaassen, J

Recent research indicates that excessive rainfall has been a significant contributor to historical waterborne disease outbreaks. The Meteorological Service of Canada, Environment Canada, provided an analysis and testimony to the Walkerton Inquiry on the excessive rainfall events, including an assessment of the historical significance and expected return periods of the rainfall amounts. While the onset of the majority of the Walkerton, Ontario, Escherichia coli O157:H7 and Campylobacter outbreak occurred several days after a heavy rainfall on May 12, the accumulated 5-d rainfall amounts from 8-12 May were particularly significant. These 5-d accumulations could, on average, only be expected once every 60 yr or more in Walkerton and once every 100 yr or so in the heaviest rainfall area to the south of Walkerton. The significant link between excess rainfall and waterborne disease outbreaks, in conjunction with other multiple risk factors, indicates that meteorological and climatological conditions need to be considered by water managers, public health officials, and private citizens as a significant risk factor for water contamination. A system to identify and project the impacts of such challenging or extreme weather conditions on water supply systems could be developed using a combination of weather/climate monitoring information and weather prediction or quantitative precipitation forecast information. The use of weather monitoring and forecast information or a "wellhead alert system" could alert water system and water supply managers on the potential response of their systems to challenging weather conditions and additional requirements to protect health. Similar approaches have recently been used by beach managers in parts of the United States to predict day-to-day water quality for beach advisories.

A scattering-based over-land rainfall retrieval algorithm for South Korea using GCOM-W1/AMSR-2 data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kwon, Young-Joo; Shin, Hayan; Ban, Hyunju; Lee, Yang-Won; Park, Kyung-Ae; Cho, Jaeil; Park, No-Wook; Hong, Sungwook

2017-08-01

Heavy summer rainfall is a primary natural disaster affecting lives and properties in the Korean Peninsula. This study presents a satellite-based rainfall rate retrieval algorithm for the South Korea combining polarization-corrected temperature ( PCT) and scattering index ( SI) data from the 36.5 and 89.0 GHz channels of the Advanced microwave Scanning Radiometer 2 (AMSR-2) onboard the Global Change Observation Mission (GCOM)-W1 satellite. The coefficients for the algorithm were obtained from spatial and temporal collocation data from the AMSR-2 and groundbased automatic weather station rain gauges from 1 July - 30 August during the years, 2012-2015. There were time delays of about 25 minutes between the AMSR-2 observations and the ground raingauge measurements. A new linearly-combined rainfall retrieval algorithm focused on heavy rain for the PCT and SI was validated using ground-based rainfall observations for the South Korea from 1 July - 30 August, 2016. The validation presented PCT and SI methods showed slightly improved results for rainfall > 5 mm h-1 compared to the current ASMR-2 level 2 data. The best bias and root mean square error (RMSE) for the PCT method at AMSR-2 36.5 GHz were 2.09 mm h-1 and 7.29 mm h-1, respectively, while the current official AMSR-2 rainfall rates show a larger bias and RMSE (4.80 mm h-1 and 9.35 mm h-1, respectively). This study provides a scatteringbased over-land rainfall retrieval algorithm for South Korea affected by stationary front rain and typhoons with the advantages of the previous PCT and SI methods to be applied to a variety of spaceborne passive microwave radiometers.

Preliminary Investigation on the Behavior of Pore Air Pressure During Rainfall Infiltration

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ashraf Mohamad Ismail, Mohd; Min, Ng Soon; Hasliza Hamzah, Nur; Hazreek Zainal Abidin, Mohd; Madun, Aziman; Tajudin, Saiful Azhar Ahmad

2018-04-01

This paper focused on the preliminary investigation of pore air pressure behaviour during rainfall infiltration in order to substantiate the mechanism of rainfall induced slope failure. The actual behaviour or pore air pressure during infiltration is yet to be clearly understood as it is regularly assumed as atmospheric. Numerical modelling of one dimensional (1D) soil column was utilized in this study to provide a preliminary insight of this highlighted uncertainty. Parametric study was performed by using rainfall intensities of 1.85 x 10-3m/s and 1.16 x 10-4m/s applied on glass beads to simulate intense and modest rainfall conditions. Analysis results show that the high rainfall intensity causes more development of pore air pressure compared to low rainfall intensity. This is because at high rainfall intensity, the rainwater cannot replace the pore air smoothly thus confining the pore air. Therefore, the effect of pore air pressure has to be taken into consideration particularly during heavy rainfall.

Effects of variable regolith depth, hydraulic properties, and rainfall on debris-flow initiation during the September 2013 northern Colorado Front Range rainstorm

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Baum, R. L.; Coe, J. A.; Kean, J. W.; Jones, E. S.; Godt, J.

2015-12-01

Heavy rainfall during 9 - 13 September 2013 induced about 1100 debris flows in the foothills and mountains of the northern Colorado Front Range. Weathered bedrock was partially exposed in the basal surfaces of many of the shallow source areas at depths ranging from 0.2 to 5 m. Typical values of saturated hydraulic conductivity of soils and regolith units mapped in the source areas range from about 10-4 - 10-6 m/s, with a median value of 2.8 x 10-5 m/s based on number of source areas in each map unit. Rainfall intensities varied spatially and temporally, from 0 to 2.5 x 10-5 m/s (90 mm/hour), with two periods of relatively heavy rainfall on September 12 - 13. The distribution of debris flows appears to correlate with total storm rainfall, and reported times of greatest landslide activity coincide with times of heaviest rainfall. Process-based models of rainfall infiltration and slope stability (TRIGRS) representing the observed ranges of regolith depth, hydraulic conductivity, and rainfall intensity, provide additional insights about the timing and distribution of debris flows from this storm. For example, small debris flows from shallower source areas (<2 m) occurred late on September 11 and in the early morning of September 12, whereas large debris flows from deeper (3 - 5 m) source areas in the western part of the affected area occurred late on September 12. Timing of these flows can be understood in terms of the time required for pore pressure rise depending on regolith depth and rainfall intensity. The variable hydraulic properties combined with variable regolith depth and slope angles account for much of the observed range in timing in areas of similar rainfall intensity and duration. Modeling indicates that the greatest and most rapid pore pressure rise likely occurred in areas of highest rainfall intensity and amount. This is consistent with the largest numbers of debris flows occurring on steep canyon walls in areas of high total storm rainfall.

Estimating the Risk of Domestic Water Source Contamination following Precipitation Events

PubMed Central

Eisenhauer, Ian F.; Hoover, Christopher M.; Remais, Justin V.; Monaghan, Andrew; Celada, Marco; Carlton, Elizabeth J.

2016-01-01

Climate change is expected to increase precipitation extremes, threatening water quality. In low resource settings, it is unclear which water sources are most vulnerable to contamination following rainfall events. We evaluated the relationship between rainfall and drinking water quality in southwest Guatemala where heavy rainfall is frequent and access to safe water is limited. We surveyed 59 shallow household wells, measured precipitation, and calculated simple hydrological variables. We compared Escherichia coli concentration at wells where recent rainfall had occurred versus had not occurred, and evaluated variability in the association between rainfall and E. coli concentration under different conditions using interaction models. Rainfall in the past 24 hours was associated with greater E. coli concentrations, with the strongest association between rainfall and fecal contamination at wells where pigs were nearby. Because of the small sample size, these findings should be considered preliminary, but provide a model to evaluate vulnerability to climate change. PMID:27114298

Analysis of rainfall characteristics and its related disasters of slag disposal pit of a certain Gold-Copper Deposit in Fujian province

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pan, Huali; Hu, Mingjian; Ou, Guoqiang

2017-04-01

According to the geological investigation in Fujian province, the total number of geological disasters was 9513, in which the number of landslide, collapse, unstable slope and surface collapse was 5816, 1888, 1591, 103 and 115 respectively. The main geological disaster was the landslide with 61.1% of total geological disasters. Among all these geological disasters, only 6.0% was relative stable, 17.0% was basic stable, nearly 76.0% was unstable. The slope disaster was the main geological disaster, if the unstable slope was the potential landslide or collapse; the slope collapse was 98.0% of all geological disasters. The rainfall, in particular the heavy rain, was direct dynamic factor for geological disasters, but the occurrence probability of geological disasters was different because of the sensitivity of the geological environment though of the same intensity rainfall. To obtain the characteristics of soil erosion under the rainfall condition, the rainfall characteristics and its related disasters of slag disposal pit of a certain Gold-Copper Deposit in Fujian province was analyzed by the meteorological and rainfall data. According to the distribution of monitoring stations of hydrological and rainfall in Longyan city of Fujian province and the location of gold-copper deposit, the Shanghang monitoring station of hydrological and rainfall was chosen, which is the nearest one to the gold-copper deposit. Then main parameters of the prediction model, the antecedent precipitation, the rainfall on the day and the rainfall threshold, were calculated by using the rainfall data from 2002 to 2010. And the relationship between geological disasters and the rainfall characteristics were analyzed. The results indicated that there was high risk for the debris flow with landslide collapse when either the daily rainfall was more than 100.0 mm, or the total rainfall was more than 136.0mm in the gold-copper deposit and the Shanghang region. At the same time, although there was few risk for the debris flow when the daily rainfall was between 50.0-100.0mm, once the soil was saturated or nearly saturated because of the continuous antecedent precipitation, debris flow disaster would occur even the daily rainfall was only 50.0mm. In addition, it was prone to trigger debris flow disaster when the daily heavy rainfall was more than 100.0mm or the torrential rainfall in 3 days was between 250.0 -300.0mm.

Population dynamics of two species of dragon lizards in arid Australia: the effects of rainfall.

PubMed

Dickman, Christopher R; Letnic, Mike; Mahon, Paul S

1999-05-01

The population dynamics of two species of agamid (dragon) lizards were studied in the Simpson Desert, central Australia, over a period of 7 years, and modelled in relation to rainfall. Both species have annual life cycles, with adults predominating during the breeding season in spring and summer and juveniles predominating in other seasons. Within years, juvenile abundance in both species in autumn and winter was related most strongly to rainfall in the preceding summer and autumn. This pattern suggests that rainfall enhances survival, growth and possibly clutch size and hatching success. Between years, however, rainfall drove successional change in the dominant plant species in the study area, spinifex Triodia basedowii, causing in turn a shift in the relative abundance of the two species. Thus, the central netted dragon Ctenophorus nuchalis was most numerous in 1990 when vegetation cover was <10%, but declined dramatically in abundance after heavy rainfall at the end of that year. In contrast, the military dragon C. isolepis achieved greatest abundance following heavy rains in the summers of 1990 and 1994, when spinifex cover increased to >20%, and remained numerically dominant for much of the study. We suggest that drought-wet cycles periodically reverse the dominance of the two species of Ctenophorus, and perhaps of other lizard species also, thus enhancing local species diversity over time. Further long-term studies are needed to document the population dynamics of other species, and to identify the factors that influence them.

Tree ring reconstructed rainfall over the southern Amazon Basin

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lopez, Lidio; Stahle, David; Villalba, Ricardo; Torbenson, Max; Feng, Song; Cook, Edward

2017-07-01

Moisture sensitive tree ring chronologies of Centrolobium microchaete have been developed from seasonally dry forests in the southern Amazon Basin and used to reconstruct wet season rainfall totals from 1799 to 2012, adding over 150 years of rainfall estimates to the short instrumental record for the region. The reconstruction is correlated with the same atmospheric variables that influence the instrumental measurements of wet season rainfall. Anticyclonic circulation over midlatitude South America promotes equatorward surges of cold and relatively dry extratropical air that converge with warm moist air to form deep convection and heavy rainfall over this sector of the southern Amazon Basin. Interesting droughts and pluvials are reconstructed during the preinstrumental nineteenth and early twentieth centuries, but the tree ring reconstruction suggests that the strong multidecadal variability in instrumental and reconstructed wet season rainfall after 1950 may have been unmatched since 1799.

Analysis of extreme rainfall events using attributes control charts in temporal rainfall processes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Villeta, María; Valencia, Jose Luis; Saá-Requejo, Antonio; María Tarquis, Ana

2015-04-01

The impacts of most intense rainfall events on agriculture and insurance industry can be very severe. This research focuses in the analysis of extreme rainfall events throughout the use of attributes control charts, which constitutes a usual tool in Statistical Process Control (SPC) but unusual in climate studios. Here, series of daily precipitations for the years 1931-2009 within a Spanish region are analyzed, based on a new type of attributes control chart that takes into account the autocorrelation between the extreme rainfall events. The aim is to conclude if there exist or not evidence of a change in the extreme rainfall model of the considered series. After adjusting seasonally the precipitation series and considering the data of the first 30 years, a frequency-based criterion allowed fixing specification limits in order to discriminate between extreme observed rainfall days and normal observed rainfall days. The autocorrelation amongst maximum precipitation is taken into account by a New Binomial Markov Extended Process obtained for each rainfall series. These modelling of the extreme rainfall processes provide a way to generate the attributes control charts for the annual fraction of rainfall extreme days. The extreme rainfall processes along the rest of the years under study can then be monitored by such attributes control charts. The results of the application of this methodology show evidence of change in the model of extreme rainfall events in some of the analyzed precipitation series. This suggests that the attributes control charts proposed for the analysis of the most intense precipitation events will be of practical interest to agriculture and insurance sectors in next future.

Time distribution of heavy rainfall events in south west of Iran

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ghassabi, Zahra; kamali, G. Ali; Meshkatee, Amir-Hussain; Hajam, Sohrab; Javaheri, Nasrolah

2016-07-01

Accurate knowledge of rainfall time distribution is a fundamental issue in many Meteorological-Hydrological studies such as using the information of the surface runoff in the design of the hydraulic structures, flood control and risk management, and river engineering studies. Since the main largest dams of Iran are in the south-west of the country (i.e. South Zagros), this research investigates the temporal rainfall distribution based on an analytical numerical method to increase the accuracy of hydrological studies in Iran. The United States Soil Conservation Service (SCS) estimated the temporal rainfall distribution in various forms. Hydrology studies usually utilize the same distribution functions in other areas of the world including Iran due to the lack of sufficient observation data. However, we first used Weather Research Forecasting (WRF) model to achieve the simulated rainfall results of the selected storms on south west of Iran in this research. Then, a three-parametric Logistic function was fitted to the rainfall data in order to compute the temporal rainfall distribution. The domain of the WRF model is 30.5N-34N and 47.5E-52.5E with a resolution of 0.08 degree in latitude and longitude. We selected 35 heavy storms based on the observed rainfall data set to simulate with the WRF Model. Storm events were scrutinized independently from each other and the best analytical three-parametric logistic function was fitted for each grid point. The results show that the value of the coefficient a of the logistic function, which indicates rainfall intensity, varies from the minimum of 0.14 to the maximum of 0.7. Furthermore, the values of the coefficient B of the logistic function, which indicates rain delay of grid points from start time of rainfall, vary from 1.6 in south-west and east to more than 8 in north and central parts of the studied area. In addition, values of rainfall intensities are lower in south west of IRAN than those of observed or proposed by the SCS values in the US.

Instrumental record of debris flow initiation during natural rainfall: Implications for modeling slope stability

Treesearch

David R. Montgomery; Kevin M. Schmidt; William E. Dietrich; Jim McKean

2009-01-01

The middle of a hillslope hollow in the Oregon Coast Range failed and mobilized as a debris flow during heavy rainfall in November 1996. Automated pressure transducers recorded high spatial variability of pore water pressure within the area that mobilized as a debris flow, which initiated where local upward flow from bedrock developed into overlying colluvium....

Hydrologic monitoring of a landslide-prone hillslope in the Elliott State Forest, Southern Coast Range, Oregon, 2009-2012

USGS Publications Warehouse

Smith, Joel B.; Godt, Jonathan W.; Baum, Rex L.; Coe, Jeffrey A.; Burns, William J.; Morse, Michael M.; Sener-Kaya, Basak; Kaya, Murat

2014-01-01

The Oregon Coast Range is dissected by numerous unchanneled headwater basins, which can generate shallow landslides and debris flows during heavy or prolonged rainfall. An automated monitoring system was installed in an unchanneled headwater basin to measure rainfall, volumetric water content, groundwater temperature, and pore pressures at 15-minute intervals. The purpose of this report is to describe and present the methods used for the monitoring as well as the preliminary data collected during the period from 2009 to 2012. Observations show a pronounced seasonal variation in volumetric water content and pore pressures. Increases in pore pressures and volumetric water content from dry-season values begin with the onset of the rainy season in the fall (typically early to mid October). High water contents and pore pressures tend to persist throughout the rainy season, which typically ends in May. Heavy or prolonged rainfall during the wet season that falls on already moist soils often generates positive pore pressures that are observed in the deeper instruments. These data provide a record of the basin’s hydrologic response to rainfall and provide a foundation for understanding the conditions that lead to landslide and debris-flow occurrence.

Typhoon Maysak

NASA Image and Video Library

2015-03-31

ISS043E078169 (03/31/2015) --- This close up of the huge Typhoon Maysak "eye" of the category 5 (hurricane status on the Saffir-Simpson Wind Scale) was captured by astronauts on board the International Space Station Mar. 31, 2015. The massive Typhoon is headed toward the Philippines and expected to land on the upcoming Easter weekend. The Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) and Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM) satellites, both co-managed by NASA and the Japan Aerospace Exploration Agency, captured rainfall and cloud data that revealed very heavy rainfall and high thunderstorms in the still strengthening storm.

Forests, fields, and the edge of sustainability at the ancient Maya city of Tikal.

PubMed

Lentz, David L; Dunning, Nicholas P; Scarborough, Vernon L; Magee, Kevin S; Thompson, Kim M; Weaver, Eric; Carr, Christopher; Terry, Richard E; Islebe, Gerald; Tankersley, Kenneth B; Grazioso Sierra, Liwy; Jones, John G; Buttles, Palma; Valdez, Fred; Ramos Hernandez, Carmen E

2014-12-30

Tikal has long been viewed as one of the leading polities of the ancient Maya realm, yet how the city was able to maintain its substantial population in the midst of a tropical forest environment has been a topic of unresolved debate among researchers for decades. We present ecological, paleoethnobotanical, hydraulic, remote sensing, edaphic, and isotopic evidence that reveals how the Late Classic Maya at Tikal practiced intensive forms of agriculture (including irrigation, terrace construction, arboriculture, household gardens, and short fallow swidden) coupled with carefully controlled agroforestry and a complex system of water retention and redistribution. Empirical evidence is presented to demonstrate that this assiduously managed anthropogenic ecosystem of the Classic period Maya was a landscape optimized in a way that provided sustenance to a relatively large population in a preindustrial, low-density urban community. This landscape productivity optimization, however, came with a heavy cost of reduced environmental resiliency and a complete reliance on consistent annual rainfall. Recent speleothem data collected from regional caves showed that persistent episodes of unusually low rainfall were prevalent in the mid-9th century A.D., a time period that coincides strikingly with the abandonment of Tikal and the erection of its last dated monument in A.D. 869. The intensified resource management strategy used at Tikal-already operating at the landscape's carrying capacity-ceased to provide adequate food, fuel, and drinking water for the Late Classic populace in the face of extended periods of drought. As a result, social disorder and abandonment ensued.

Forests, fields, and the edge of sustainability at the ancient Maya city of Tikal

PubMed Central

Lentz, David L.; Dunning, Nicholas P.; Scarborough, Vernon L.; Magee, Kevin S.; Thompson, Kim M.; Weaver, Eric; Terry, Richard E.; Islebe, Gerald; Tankersley, Kenneth B.; Grazioso Sierra, Liwy; Jones, John G.; Buttles, Palma; Valdez, Fred; Ramos Hernandez, Carmen E.

2014-01-01

Tikal has long been viewed as one of the leading polities of the ancient Maya realm, yet how the city was able to maintain its substantial population in the midst of a tropical forest environment has been a topic of unresolved debate among researchers for decades. We present ecological, paleoethnobotanical, hydraulic, remote sensing, edaphic, and isotopic evidence that reveals how the Late Classic Maya at Tikal practiced intensive forms of agriculture (including irrigation, terrace construction, arboriculture, household gardens, and short fallow swidden) coupled with carefully controlled agroforestry and a complex system of water retention and redistribution. Empirical evidence is presented to demonstrate that this assiduously managed anthropogenic ecosystem of the Classic period Maya was a landscape optimized in a way that provided sustenance to a relatively large population in a preindustrial, low-density urban community. This landscape productivity optimization, however, came with a heavy cost of reduced environmental resiliency and a complete reliance on consistent annual rainfall. Recent speleothem data collected from regional caves showed that persistent episodes of unusually low rainfall were prevalent in the mid-9th century A.D., a time period that coincides strikingly with the abandonment of Tikal and the erection of its last dated monument in A.D. 869. The intensified resource management strategy used at Tikal—already operating at the landscape’s carrying capacity—ceased to provide adequate food, fuel, and drinking water for the Late Classic populace in the face of extended periods of drought. As a result, social disorder and abandonment ensued. PMID:25512500

Heavy rain prediction using deterministic and probabilistic models - the flash flood cases of 11-13 October 2005 in Catalonia (NE Spain)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Barrera, A.; Altava-Ortiz, V.; Llasat, M. C.; Barnolas, M.

2007-09-01

Between the 11 and 13 October 2005 several flash floods were produced along the coast of Catalonia (NE Spain) due to a significant heavy rainfall event. Maximum rainfall achieved values up to 250 mm in 24 h. The total amount recorded during the event in some places was close to 350 mm. Barcelona city was also in the affected area where high rainfall intensities were registered, but just a few small floods occurred, thanks to the efficient urban drainage system of the city. Two forecasting methods have been applied in order to evaluate their capability of prediction regarding extreme events: the deterministic MM5 model and a probabilistic model based on the analogous method. The MM5 simulation allows analysing accurately the main meteorological features with a high spatial resolution (2 km), like the formation of some convergence lines over the region that partially explains the maximum precipitation location during the event. On the other hand, the analogous technique shows a good agreement among highest probability values and real affected areas, although a larger pluviometric rainfall database would be needed to improve the results. The comparison between the observed precipitation and from both QPF (quantitative precipitation forecast) methods shows that the analogous technique tends to underestimate the rainfall values and the MM5 simulation tends to overestimate them.

Heat and Freshwater Budgets in the Eastern Pacific Warm Pool

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wijesekera, H. W.; Rudnick, D.; Paulson, C. A.; Pierce, S.

2002-12-01

Heat and freshwater budgets of the upper ocean in the Eastern Equatorial Pacific warm pool at 10N, 95W are investigated for the 20-day R/V New Horizon survey made as a part of the EPIC-2001 program. We collected underway hydrographic data from a SeaBird CTD mounted on an undulating platform, SeaSoar, and horizontal velocity data from the ship mounted ADCP, along a butterfly pattern centered near 10N, 95W. The time of completion of a single butterfly pattern (146x146 km) at a speed of 8 knots was approximately 36 hours, which is about half an inertial period at 10N. The butterfly survey lasted from September 14 to October 03, 2001. During the 20-day period, temperature and salinity in the upper 20 m dropped by 1.5C and 0.5 psu, respectively, and most of these changes took place over two days of heavy rainfall between September 23 and 24. The near surface became strongly stratified during these rain events. The rainfall signature weakened and mixed down to the top of the pycnocline (~30-m depth) within a few days after the rainfall. The change in fresh water content of the upper 30 m which occurred during the 2-day period of heavy rainfall is equivalent to about 0.12 m of rainfall, which is significantly less than the rainfall observed on the New Horizon. The difference may be due to spatial inhomogeneity in the rainfall and to the neglect of advection. Estimates of advection are presented using ADCP velocities and SeaSoar hydrography. Heat and fresh water budgets are presented by combining surface fluxes, and advection and storage terms.

Stable Isotopes as Indicators of Groundwater Recharge Mechanisms in Arid and Semi-arid Australia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Harrington, G. A.; Herczeg, A. L.

2001-05-01

The isotopic compositions of soil water and groundwaters in arid and semi-arid zones are always different from the mean composition of rainfall. Although evaporative processes always remove the lighter isotopes (1H and 16O) to the vapour phase, arid zone groundwaters are invariably depleted in the heavy isotopes (2H and 18O) relative to mean present day rainfall. We compare two sites, one in semi-arid South Australia and the other in arid Central Australia that have a similar mean annual rainfall (250 to 300 mm/a), very high potential evapotranspiration (2500 and 3500 mm/a respectively) but very different rainfall patterns (winter dominated versus summer monsoonal). We aim to evaluate whether inferences from groundwater \\delta2H and \\delta18O reveal information about palaeorecharge, or recharge mechanisms or a combination of both. Recharge to the unconfined limestone aquifer in the Mallee area of South Australia occurs annually via widespread (diffuse) infiltration of winter dominant rainfall. This process is reflected in soil and groundwater isotopic compositions that plot relatively close to both the Local Meteoric Water Line and the volume-weighted mean composition of winter rainfall, and have a deuterium excess (\\delta2H-8.\\delta18O) of between +2 and +8 for the freshest samples. Groundwater recharge to the arid Ti-Tree Basin occurs predominantly by inputs of partially-evaporated surface water from ephemeral rivers and flood-plains following rare, high-intensity storms that are derived from monsoonal activity to the north of Australia. These extreme events result in groundwater and soil water stable isotope compositions being significantly depleted in the heavy isotopes relative to the mean composition of rainfall and a deuterium excess of between minus 8 and +3 in the freshest groundwaters.

Persistent after-effects of heavy rain on concentrations of ice nuclei and rainfall suggest a biological cause

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bigg, E. K.; Soubeyrand, S.; Morris, C. E.

2015-03-01

Rainfall is one of the most important aspects of climate, but the extent to which atmospheric ice nuclei (IN) influence its formation, quantity, frequency, and location is not clear. Microorganisms and other biological particles are released following rainfall and have been shown to serve as efficient IN, in turn impacting cloud and precipitation formation. Here we investigated potential long-term effects of IN on rainfall frequency and quantity. Differences in IN concentrations and rainfall after and before days of large rainfall accumulation (i.e., key days) were calculated for measurements made over the past century in southeastern and southwestern Australia. Cumulative differences in IN concentrations and daily rainfall quantity and frequency as a function of days from a key day demonstrated statistically significant increasing logarithmic trends (R2 > 0.97). Based on observations that cumulative effects of rainfall persisted for about 20 days, we calculated cumulative differences for the entire sequence of key days at each site to create a historical record of how the differences changed with time. Comparison of pre-1960 and post-1960 sequences most commonly showed smaller rainfall totals in the post-1960 sequences, particularly in regions downwind from coal-fired power stations. This led us to explore the hypothesis that the increased leaf surface populations of IN-active bacteria due to rain led to a sustained but slowly diminishing increase in atmospheric concentrations of IN that could potentially initiate or augment rainfall. This hypothesis is supported by previous research showing that leaf surface populations of the ice-nucleating bacterium Pseudomonas syringae increased by orders of magnitude after heavy rain and that microorganisms become airborne during and after rain in a forest ecosystem. At the sites studied in this work, aerosols that could have initiated rain from sources unrelated to previous rainfall events (such as power stations) would automatically have reduced the influences on rainfall of those whose concentrations were related to previous rain, thereby leading to inhibition of feedback. The analytical methods described here provide means to map and delimit regions where rainfall feedback mediated by microorganisms is suspected to occur or has occurred historically, thereby providing rational means to establish experimental set-ups for verification.

Validation of Satellite-based Rainfall Estimates for Severe Storms (Hurricanes & Tornados)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nourozi, N.; Mahani, S.; Khanbilvardi, R.

2005-12-01

Severe storms such as hurricanes and tornadoes cause devastating damages, almost every year, over a large section of the United States. More accurate forecasting intensity and track of a heavy storm can help to reduce if not to prevent its damages to lives, infrastructure, and economy. Estimating accurate high resolution quantitative precipitation (QPE) from a hurricane, required to improve the forecasting and warning capabilities, is still a challenging problem because of physical characteristics of the hurricane even when it is still over the ocean. Satellite imagery seems to be a valuable source of information for estimating and forecasting heavy precipitation and also flash floods, particularly for over the oceans where the traditional ground-based gauge and radar sources cannot provide any information. To improve the capability of a rainfall retrieval algorithm for estimating QPE of severe storms, its product is evaluated in this study. High (hourly 4km x 4km) resolutions satellite infrared-based rainfall products, from the NESDIS Hydro-Estimator (HE) and also PERSIANN (Precipitation Estimation from Remotely Sensed Information using an Artificial Neural Networks) algorithms, have been tested against NEXRAD stage-IV and rain gauge observations in this project. Three strong hurricanes: Charley (category 4), Jeanne (category 3), and Ivan (category 3) that caused devastating damages over Florida in the summer 2004, have been considered to be investigated. Preliminary results demonstrate that HE tends to underestimate rain rates when NEXRAD shows heavy storm (rain rates greater than 25 mm/hr) and to overestimate when NEXRAD gives low rainfall amounts, but PERSIANN tends to underestimate rain rates, in general.

A Mediterranean nocturnal heavy rainfall and tornadic event. Part I: Overview, damage survey and radar analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bech, Joan; Pineda, Nicolau; Rigo, Tomeu; Aran, Montserrat; Amaro, Jéssica; Gayà, Miquel; Arús, Joan; Montanyà, Joan; der Velde, Oscar van

2011-06-01

This study presents an analysis of a severe weather case that took place during the early morning of the 2nd of November 2008, when intense convective activity associated with a rapidly evolving low pressure system affected the southern coast of Catalonia (NE Spain). The synoptic framework was dominated by an upper level trough and an associated cold front extending from Gibraltar along the Mediterranean coast of the Iberian Peninsula to SE France, which moved north-eastward. South easterly winds in the north of the Balearic Islands and the coast of Catalonia favoured high values of 0-3 km storm relative helicity which combined with moderate MLCAPE values and high shear favoured the conditions for organized convection. A number of multicell storms and others exhibiting supercell features, as indicated by Doppler radar observations, clustered later in a mesoscale convective system, and moved north-eastwards across Catalonia. They produced ground-level strong damaging wind gusts, an F2 tornado, hail and heavy rainfall. Total lightning activity (intra-cloud and cloud to ground flashes) was also relevant, exhibiting several classical features such as a sudden increased rate before ground level severe damage, as discussed in a companion study. Remarkable surface observations of this event include 24 h precipitation accumulations exceeding 100 mm in four different observatories and 30 minute rainfall amounts up to 40 mm which caused local flash floods. As the convective system evolved northward later that day it also affected SE France causing large hail, ground level damaging wind gusts and heavy rainfall.

An Investigation on the Sensitivity of the Parameters of Urban Flood Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

M, A. B.; Lohani, B.; Jain, A.

2015-12-01

Global climatic change has triggered weather patterns which lead to heavy and sudden rainfall in different parts of world. The impact of heavy rainfall is severe especially on urban areas in the form of urban flooding. In order to understand the effect of heavy rainfall induced flooding, it is necessary to model the entire flooding scenario more accurately, which is now becoming possible with the availability of high resolution airborne LiDAR data and other real time observations. However, there is not much understanding on the optimal use of these data and on the effect of other parameters on the performance of the flood model. This study aims at developing understanding on these issues. In view of the above discussion, the aim of this study is to (i) understand that how the use of high resolution LiDAR data improves the performance of urban flood model, and (ii) understand the sensitivity of various hydrological parameters on urban flood modelling. In this study, modelling of flooding in urban areas due to heavy rainfall is carried out considering Indian Institute of Technology (IIT) Kanpur, India as the study site. The existing model MIKE FLOOD, which is accepted by Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA), is used along with the high resolution airborne LiDAR data. Once the model is setup it is made to run by changing the parameters such as resolution of Digital Surface Model (DSM), manning's roughness, initial losses, catchment description, concentration time, runoff reduction factor. In order to realize this, the results obtained from the model are compared with the field observations. The parametric study carried out in this work demonstrates that the selection of catchment description plays a very important role in urban flood modelling. Results also show the significant impact of resolution of DSM, initial losses and concentration time on urban flood model. This study will help in understanding the effect of various parameters that should be part of a flood model for its accurate performance.

Climate Change In Indonesia (Case Study : Medan, Palembang, Semarang)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Suryadi, Yadi; Sugianto, Denny Nugroho; Hadiyanto

2018-02-01

Indonesia's maritime continent is one of the most vulnerable regions regarding to climate change impacts. One of the vulnerable areas affected are the urban areas, because they are home to almost half of Indonesia's population where they live and earn a living, so that environmental management efforts need to be done. To support such efforts, climate change analysis is required. The analysis was carried out in several big cities in Indonesia. The method used in the research was trend analysis of temperature, rainfall, shifts in rainfall patterns, and extreme climatic trend. The data of rainfall and temperature were obtained from Meteorology and Geophysics Agency (BMKG). The result shows that the air temperature and rainfall have a positive trend, except in Semarang City which having a negative rainfall trend. The result also shows heavy rainfall trends. These indicate that climate is changing in these three cities.

A Study of Heavy Precipitation Events in Taiwan During 10-13 August, 1994. Part 2; Mesoscale Model Simulations

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Tao, Wei Kuo; Chen, C.-S.; Jia, Y.; Baker, D.; Lang, S.; Wetzel, P.; Lau, W. K.-M.

2001-01-01

Several heavy precipitation episodes occurred over Taiwan from August 10 to 13, 1994. Precipitation patterns and characteristics are quite different between the precipitation events that occurred from August 10 and I I and from August 12 and 13. In Part I (Chen et al. 2001), the environmental situation and precipitation characteristics are analyzed using the EC/TOGA data, ground-based radar data, surface rainfall patterns, surface wind data, and upper air soundings. In this study (Part II), the Penn State/NCAR Mesoscale Model (MM5) is used to study the precipitation characteristics of these heavy precipitation events. Various physical processes (schemes) developed at NASA Goddard Space Flight Center (i.e., cloud microphysics scheme, radiative transfer model, and land-soil-vegetation surface model) have recently implemented into the MM5. These physical packages are described in the paper, Two way interactive nested grids are used with horizontal resolutions of 45, 15 and 5 km. The model results indicated that Cloud physics, land surface and radiation processes generally do not change the location (horizontal distribution) of heavy precipitation. The Goddard 3-class ice scheme produced more rainfall than the 2-class scheme. The Goddard multi-broad-band radiative transfer model reduced precipitation compared to a one-broad band (emissivity) radiation model. The Goddard land-soil-vegetation surface model also reduce the rainfall compared to a simple surface model in which the surface temperature is computed from a Surface energy budget following the "force-re store" method. However, model runs including all Goddard physical processes enhanced precipitation significantly for both cases. The results from these runs are in better agreement with observations. Despite improved simulations using different physical schemes, there are still some deficiencies in the model simulations. Some potential problems are discussed. Sensitivity tests (removing either terrain or radiative processes) are performed to identify the physical processes that determine the precipitation patterns and characteristics for heavy rainfall events. These sensitivity tests indicated that terrain can play a major role in determining the exact location for both precipitation events. The terrain can also play a major role in determining the intensity of precipitation for both events. However, it has a large impact on one event but a smaller one on the other. The radiative processes are also important for determining, the precipitation patterns for one case but. not the other. The radiative processes can also effect the total rainfall for both cases to different extents.

A Canonical Response in Rainfall Characteristics to Global Warming: Projections by IPCC CMIP5 Models

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lau, William K. M.; Wu, H. T.; Kim, K. M.

2012-01-01

Changes in rainfall characteristics induced by global warming are examined based on probability distribution function (PDF) analysis, from outputs of 14 IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change), CMIP (5th Coupled Model Intercomparison Project) models under various scenarios of increased CO2 emissions. Results show that collectively CMIP5 models project a robust and consistent global and regional rainfall response to CO2 warming. Globally, the models show a 1-3% increase in rainfall per degree rise in temperature, with a canonical response featuring large increase (100-250 %) in frequency of occurrence of very heavy rain, a reduction (5-10%) of moderate rain, and an increase (10-15%) of light rain events. Regionally, even though details vary among models, a majority of the models (>10 out of 14) project a consistent large scale response with more heavy rain events in climatologically wet regions, most pronounced in the Pacific ITCZ and the Asian monsoon. Moderate rain events are found to decrease over extensive regions of the subtropical and extratropical oceans, but increases over the extratropical land regions, and the Southern Oceans. The spatial distribution of light rain resembles that of moderate rain, but mostly with opposite polarity. The majority of the models also show increase in the number of dry events (absence or only trace amount of rain) over subtropical and tropical land regions in both hemispheres. These results suggest that rainfall characteristics are changing and that increased extreme rainfall events and droughts occurrences are connected, as a consequent of a global adjustment of the large scale circulation to global warming.

Hydrometeorological Analysis of Tropical Storm Hermine and Central Texas Flash Flooding, September 2010.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Furl, Chad; Sharif, Hatim; ElHassan, Almoutaz; Mazari, Newfel; Burtch, Daniel; Mullendore, Gretchen

2015-04-01

Heavy rainfall and flooding associated with Tropical Storm Hermine occurred 7-8 September 2010 across central Texas resulting in several fatalities and extensive property damage. The largest rainfall totals were received near Austin, TX and immediately north where twenty four hour accumulations reached a 500 year recurrence interval. Among the most heavily impacted drainage basins was the Bull Creek watershed (58 km2) in Austin, TX where peak flows exceeded 500 m3 s-1. The large flows were produced from a narrow band of intense storm cells training over the small watershed for approximately six hours. Meteorological analysis along with Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model simulations indicate a quasi-stationary synoptic feature slowing the storm, orographic enhancement from the Balcones Escarpment, and moist air from the Gulf of Mexico were important features producing the locally heavy rainfall. The effect from the Balcones Escarpment was explicitly tested by conducting simulations with and without the escarpment terrain. High resolution, gauge adjusted radar collected as part of a flash flood warning system was used to describe spatiotemporal rainfall patterns and force the Gridded Surface/Subsurface Hydrologic Analysis (GSSHA) model. The radar dataset indicated the basin received nearly 300 mm of precipitation with maximum sustained intensities of 50 mm hr-1. Roughly 60 percent of storm totals fell during two periods lasting a combined five hours. Stream flow showed a highly non-linear response to two periods of intense rainfall. GSSHA simulations indicate this can be partially explained by the spatial organization of rainfall coupled with landscape retention.

Rainfall-induced landslide susceptibility zonation of Puerto Rico

Treesearch

Chiara Lepore; Sameer A. Kamal; Peter Shanahan; Rafael L. Bras

2011-01-01

Landslides are a major geologic hazard with estimated tens of deaths and $1–2 billion in economic losses per year in the US alone. The island of Puerto Rico experiences one or two large events per year, often triggered in steeply sloped areas by prolonged and heavy rainfall. Identifying areas susceptible to landslides thus has great potential value for Puerto Rico and...

Relationship between catchment events (earthquake and heavy rain) and sediment core analysis result in Taiwan.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chen, Hsin-Ying; Lin, Jiun-Chuan

2015-04-01

Lake sediments contains material from the catchment. In those sediments, there are some features which can indicate characteristic or status of the catchment. These features were formed by different mechanisms, including some events like earthquakes or heavy rain, which are very common in Taiwan. By analyzing and discussing features of sediments there is a chance to identify historical events and rebuild catchment history. In this study, we compare features of sediment core ( including density, mineral grain size, whole grain size, and biogenic silica content) and earthquake, precipitation records. Sediment cores are collected from Emerald peak lake (24.514980, 121.605844; 77.5, 77.2, 64cm depth), Liyutan lake (23.959878, 120.996585; 43.2, 78.1 cm depth), Sun Moon Lake (23.847043, 120.909869; 181 cm depth), and Dongyuan lake (22.205742, 120.854984; 45.1, 44.2cm depth) in 2014. We assume that there are regular material and organic output in catchments. And rain will provide impetus to move material into lakes. The greater the rain is the larger the material can move. So, if there is a heavy rainfall event, grain size of lake sediment may increase. However, when earthquakes happen, it will produce more material which have lower organic composition than ordinary. So we suggest that after earthquakes there will be more material stored in catchment than often. And rainfall event provides power to move material into lakes, cause more sediment and mineral content higher than usual. Comparing with earthquake record(from 1949, by USGS) and precipitation record(from1940, by Central Weather Bureau,Taiwan), there were few earthquakes which happened near lakes and scale were more than 7 ML. There were 28 rainfall events near Emerald peak lake; 32 near Liyutan lake and Sun Moon Lake; 58 near Dongyuan lake ( rainfall event: >250 mm/day ). In sediment analytical results, ratio of whole and mineral grain size indeed have similar trends with earthquake record. However, rainfall events were too frequent to determine the relation between rainfall events and sediment analyze results, that may be obstruction of attempt to speculate the extent of earthquake events.

Extreme rainfall-induced landslide changes based on landslide susceptibility in China, 1998-2015

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, Weiyue; Liu, Chun; Hong, Yang

2017-04-01

Nowadays, landslide has been one of the most frequent and seriously widespread natural hazards all over the world. Rainfall, especially heavy rainfall is a trigger to cause the landslide occurrence, by increasing soil pore water pressures. In China, rainfall-induced landslides have risen up over to 90% of the total number. Rainfall events sometimes generate a trend of extremelization named rainfall extremes that induce the slope failure suddenly and severely. This study shows a method to simulate the rainfall-induced landslide spatio-temporal distribution on the basis of the landslide susceptibility index. First, the study on landslide susceptibility in China is introduced. We set the values of the index to the range between 0 and 1. Second, we collected TRMM 3B42 precipitation products spanning the years 1998-2015 and extracted the daily rainfall events greater than 50mm/day as extreme rainfall. Most of the rainfall duration time that may trigger a landslide has resulted between 3 hours and 45 hours. The combination of these two aspects can be exploited to simulate extreme rainfall-induced landslide distribution and illustrate the changes in 17 years. This study shows a useful tool to be part of rainfall-induced landslide simulation methodology for landslide early warning.

Evaluation of satellite and simulated rainfall products for hydrological applications in the Notwane catchment, Botswana

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kenabatho, P. K.; Parida, B. P.; Moalafhi, D. B.

2017-08-01

In semi-arid catchments, hydrological modeling, water resources planning and management are hampered by insufficient spatial rainfall data which is usually derived from limited rain gauge networks. Satellite products are potential candidates to augment the limited spatial rainfall data in these areas. In this paper, the utility of the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) product (3B42 v7) is evaluated using data from the Notwane catchment in Botswana. In addition, rainfall simulations obtained from a multi-site stochastic rainfall model based on the generalised linear models (GLMs) were used as additional spatial rainfall estimates. These rainfall products were compared to the observed rainfall data obtained from six (6) rainfall stations available in the catchment for the period 1998-2012. The results show that in general the two approaches produce reasonable spatial rainfall estimates. However, the TRMM products provided better spatial rainfall estimates compared to the GLM rainfall outputs on an average, as more than 90% of the monthly rainfall variations were explained by the TRMM compared to 80% from the GLMs. However, there is still uncertainty associated mainly with limited rainfall stations, and the inability of the two products to capture unusually high rainfall values in the data sets. Despite this observation, rainfall indices computed to further assess the daily rainfall products (i.e. rainfall occurrence and amounts, length of dry spells) were adequately represented by the TRMM data compared to the GLMs. Performance from the GLMs is expected to improve with addition of further rainfall predictors. A combination of these rainfall products allows for reasonable spatial rainfall estimates and temporal (short term future) rainfall simulations from the TRMM and GLMs, respectively. The results have significant implications on water resources planning and management in the catchment which has, for the past three years, been experiencing prolonged droughts as shown by the drying of Gaborone dam (currently at a record low of 1.6% full), which is the main source of water supply to the city of Gaborone and neighbouring townships in Botswana.

Spatiotemporal variability of rainfall extremes in monsoonal climates - examples from the South American Monsoon and the Indian Monsoon Systems (Invited)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bookhagen, B.; Boers, N.; Marwan, N.; Malik, N.; Kurths, J.

2013-12-01

Monsoonal rainfall is the crucial component for more than half of the world's population. Runoff associated with monsoon systems provide water resources for agriculture, hydropower, drinking-water generation, recreation, and social well-being and are thus a fundamental part of human society. However, monsoon systems are highly stochastic and show large variability on various timescales. Here, we use various rainfall datasets to characterize spatiotemporal rainfall patterns using traditional as well as new approaches emphasizing nonlinear spatial correlations from a complex networks perspective. Our analyses focus on the South American (SAMS) and Indian (ISM) Monsoon Systems on the basis of Tropical Rainfall Measurement Mission (TRMM) using precipitation radar and passive-microwave products with horizontal spatial resolutions of ~5x5 km^2 (products 2A25, 2B31) and 25x25 km^2 (3B42) and interpolated rainfall-gauge data for the ISM (APHRODITE, 25x25 km^2). The eastern slopes of the Andes of South America and the southern front of the Himalaya are characterized by significant orographic barriers that intersect with the moisture-bearing, monsoonal wind systems. We demonstrate that topography exerts a first-order control on peak rainfall amounts on annual timescales in both mountain belts. Flooding in the downstream regions is dominantly caused by heavy rainfall storms that propagate deep into the mountain range and reach regions that are arid and without vegetation cover promoting rapid runoff. These storms exert a significantly different spatial distribution than average-rainfall conditions and assessing their recurrence intervals and prediction is key in understanding flooding for these regions. An analysis of extreme-value distributions of our high-spatial resolution data reveal that semi-arid areas are characterized by low-frequency/high-magnitude events (i.e., are characterized by a ';heavy tail' distribution), whereas regions with high mean annual rainfall have a less skewed distribution. In a second step, an analysis of the spatial characteristics of extreme rainfall synchronicity by means of complex networks reveals patterns of the propagation of extreme rainfall events. These patterns differ substantially from those obtained from the mean annual rainfall distribution. In addition, we have developed a scheme to predict rainfall extreme events in the eastern Central Andes based on event synchronization and spatial patterns of complex networks. The presented methods and result will allow to critically evaluate data and models in space and time.

Evaluating the influence of gully erosion on landslide hazard analysis triggered by heavy rainfall

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ruljigaljig, Tjuku; Tsai, Ching-Jun; Peng, Wen-Fei; Yu, Teng-To

2017-04-01

During the rainstorm period such as typhoon or heavy rain, the development of gully will induce a large-scale landslide. The purpose of this study is to assess and quantify the existence and development of gully for the purpose of triggering landslides by analyzing the landslides hazard. Firstly, based on multi-scale DEM data, this study uses wavelet transform to construct an automatic algorithm. The 1-meter DEM is used to evaluate the location and type of gully, and to establish an evaluation model for predicting erosion development.In this study, routes in the Chai-Yi were studied to clarify the damage potential of roadways from local gully. The local of gully is regarded as a parameter to reduce the strength parameter. The distribution of factor of safe (F.S.) is compared with the landslide inventory map. The result of this research could be used to increase the prediction accuracy of landslide hazard analysis due to heavy rainfalls.

Floods of December 1961 in Mississippi and adjoining states

USGS Publications Warehouse

Shell, James D.

1962-01-01

Widespread floods occurred over parts of Mississippi, Louisiana, and Alabama after heavy rains during December 18, 1961. A series of low-pressure systems produced as much as 19 inches of rainfall in some areas. Heavy rainfall, 7 to 11 inches, on December 10 resulted in outstanding floods on small streams in southern Mississippi and southwestern Alabama. Subsequent rains produced multiple floods on small streams and outstanding floods of prolonged duration along the Big Black, upper Pearl, and lower Tombigbee Rivers in Mississippi. At Jackson, Miss., the Pearl River reached the highest stage known. Along the east bank, flood waters topped or breached some of the levee system protecting the Flowood industrial area, but other parts were saved by extensive reinforcement and by emergency operation of the partially completed dam 10 miles upstream. Additional heavy damage to commercial and industrial property was prevented as a result of these measures. Elsewhere, damage was restricted primarily to secondary highways and bridges. Two lives were lost.

From the concept of ``Kaltlufttropfen'' (cold air pool) to the cut-off low. The case of September 1971 in Spain as an example of their role in heavy rainfalls

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Llasat, M.-C.; Martín, F.; Barrera, A.

2007-04-01

Over the last 25 years the term “cold pool” has come to be used in many spheres as a synonym for floods. This has given rise to a major confusion that has even moved into international scientific and technical circles. In this paper we analyse how the concept of “cold air pool” has evolved from when it was defined at the beginning of the 20th century down to the present day, in which the Spanish term “DANA” (similar to a cut-off low) has been introduced in order to avoid existing confusions. In the course of the paper we take account of cold air pool genesis and their thermal and dynamic characteristics, and we discuss the factors that have led to them being identified (erroneously) with heavy rainfall events. The study takes as its basis a systematic analysis of all the cold air pools recorded in Europe, and particularly in the Iberian Peninsula, over the period 1974-1983, as well as in studies of the floods recorded in eastern Spain since 1950 until nowadays. The discussion done on the basis of this accurate analysis leads to the identification of a cold air pool as a type cut-off low (COL) and justifying the use of this more generic term when a structure like this is present in a heavy rainfall event. For a better illustration of the previous discussion and understanding of the role of COLs in intense rainfall events, we present the episode of September 1971 in Catalonia, in which over 400 mm were recorded. The analysis was carried out with the MM5 initialised with the ERA-40 re-analyses. The results show that the role of COLs in the heavy rainfall episodes recorded in Spain is mainly dynamic, both in terms of the circulation they create at low levels and the potential vorticity anomaly generated. This circulation draws in very warm, moist and potentially unstable air perpendicularly to the coast and the littoral mountain chains. The factor of thermal instability, owing to the presence of cold air at medium and higher levels, shows itself to be more important in zones where this warm moist advection at low levels is not as significant as in the Mediterranean zone.

Tree Diameter Growth in the Dry Limestone Hills

Treesearch

C. B. Briscoe

1962-01-01

The dry limestone hill region of southwestern Puerto Rico, because of heavy, shallow soils and scant rainfall is not farmed, and is recognized as an area best suited for the growth of trees. With a mean temperature near 80°F and with rainfall averaging no more than 30 inches anually and much less during dry years, the site is adverse even for tree growth. Studies on...

Interannual variation of mid-summer heavy rainfall in the eastern edge of the Tibetan Plateau

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jiang, Xingwen; Li, Yueqing; Yang, Song; Shu, Jianchuan; He, Guangbi

2015-12-01

Heavy rainfall (HR) often hits the eastern edge of the Tibetan Plateau (EETP) and causes severe flood and landslide in summer, especially in July. In this study, the authors investigate the interannual variation of July HR events and its possible causes. The maximum number of days with HR in July is located at the EETP in China. It is significantly and negatively correlated with the rainfall in southeastern China. More HR events are accompanied by an anomalous lower-tropospheric anticyclone over southeastern China, a westward movement of the western North Pacific subtropical high, and enhanced rainfall in the Maritime Continent (MC). The MC convection exerts a significant impact on the variation of HR events over EETP. Results from analyses of observations and numerical simulations indicate that the convective heating over the MC induces an anomalous anticyclone over southeastern China and the Ekman pumping effect and circulation-convection feedback play vital roles in the process. The high correlation between the HR events over EETP and the equatorial central Pacific SST depends on the relationship between the MC convection and the equatorial central Pacific SST. The relationship is asymmetric, and only the warm SST anomaly in the equatorial central Pacific is accompanied by fewer HR events over the EETP.

Analysis of seasonal water pollution based on rainfall feature at Anyang river basin in Korea

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Han, J. G.; Lee, Y. K.; Kim, T. H.; Hwang, E. J.

2005-08-01

To determine selected water pollution parameters of the Anyang River (one of the biggest contributory branches of the Han River in Korea) and its main tributaries, the geological and topographical and rainfall features in its basin were investigated, and the resulting data were tabulated. Samples were collected at the upper, mid and down parts of the Anyang River and its branches and were analyzed based on biochemical and chemical methods, Korean biotic index (KBI) and Saprobien systems. Selected parameters of concern include BOD, heavy metals, nonpoint pollution and sewage discharge. The Anyang River basin has a torrential heavy rainfall; however, the rate of rainfall significantly varies from season to season. Water pollution levels in the dry season increase dramatically. The mainstream of the Anyang River is classified as fifth grade polysaprobic water according to Saprobien system. In addition, the biotic index is over 2.5 in overall. General pollution at the junction of the Anyang River and each branch stream varies. Possible countermeasures to improve the water quality of the river include intercept the non-treated waste water and sewage at the Anyang River junction and each branch stream, enforcement of water management during the rainy season, and continuous investment on environmental restoration.

Building rainfall thresholds for large-scales landslides by extracting occurrence time of landslides from seismic records

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yen, Hsin-Yi; Lin, Guan-Wei

2017-04-01

Understanding the rainfall condition which triggers mass moment on hillslope is the key to forecast rainfall-induced slope hazards, and the exact time of landslide occurrence is one of the basic information for rainfall statistics. In the study, we focused on large-scale landslides (LSLs) with disturbed area larger than 10 ha and conducted a string of studies including the recognition of landslide-induced ground motions and the analyses of different terms of rainfall thresholds. More than 10 heavy typhoons during the periods of 2005-2014 in Taiwan induced more than hundreds of LSLs and provided the opportunity to characterize the rainfall conditions which trigger LSLs. A total of 101 landslide-induced seismic signals were identified from the records of Taiwan seismic network. These signals exposed the occurrence time of landslide to assess rainfall conditions. Rainfall analyses showed that LSLs occurred when cumulative rainfall exceeded 500 mm. The results of rainfall-threshold analyses revealed that it is difficult to distinct LSLs from small-scale landslides (SSLs) by the I-D and R-D methods, but the I-R method can achieve the discrimination. Besides, an enhanced three-factor threshold considering deep water content was proposed as the rainfall threshold for LSLs.

Hydrodynamic modelling of recreational water quality using Escherichia coli as an indicator of microbial contamination

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Eregno, Fasil Ejigu; Tryland, Ingun; Tjomsland, Torulv; Kempa, Magdalena; Heistad, Arve

2018-06-01

Microbial contamination of recreational beaches is often at its worst after heavy rainfall events due to storm floods that carry fecal matter and other pollutants from the watershed. Similarly, overflows of untreated sewage from combined sewerage systems may discharge directly into coastal water or via rivers and streams. In order to understand the effect of rainfall events, wind-directions and tides on the recreational water quality, GEMSS, an integrated 3D hydrodynamic model was applied to assess the spreading of Escherichia coli (E. coli) at the Sandvika beaches, located in the Oslo fjord. The model was also used to theoretically investigate the effect of discharges from septic tanks from boats on the water quality at local beaches. The model make use of microbial decay rate as the main input representing the survival of microbial pathogens in the ocean, which vary widely depending on the type of pathogen and environmental stress. The predicted beach water quality was validated against observed data after a heavy rainfall event using Nash-Sutcliffe coefficient (E) and the overall result indicated that the model performed quite well and the simulation was in - good agreement with the observed E. coli concentrations for all beaches. The result of this study indicated that: 1) the bathing water quality was poor according to the EU bathing water directive up to two days after the heavy rainfall event depending on the location of the beach site. 2) The discharge from a boat at 300-meter distance to the beaches slightly increased the E. coli levels at the beaches. 3) The spreading of microbial pathogens from its source to the different beaches depended on the wind speed and the wind direction.

A comparison between the effects of artificial land cover and anthropogenic heat on a localized heavy rain event in 2008 in Zoshigaya, Tokyo, Japan

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Souma, Kazuyoshi; Tanaka, Kenji; Suetsugi, Tadashi; Sunada, Kengo; Tsuboki, Kazuhisa; Shinoda, Taro; Wang, Yuqing; Sakakibara, Atsushi; Hasegawa, Koichi; Moteki, Qoosaku; Nakakita, Eiichi

2013-10-01

5 August 2008, a localized heavy rainfall event caused a rapid increase in drainpipe discharge, which killed five people working in a drainpipe near Zoshigaya, Tokyo. This study compared the effects of artificial land cover and anthropogenic heat on this localized heavy rainfall event based on three ensemble experiments using a cloud-resolving model that includes realistic urban features. The first experiment CTRL (control) considered realistic land cover and urban features, including artificial land cover, anthropogenic heat, and urban geometry. In the second experiment NOAH (no anthropogenic heat), anthropogenic heat was ignored. In the third experiment NOLC (no land cover), urban heating from artificial land cover was reduced by keeping the urban geometry but with roofs, walls, and roads of artificial land cover replaced by shallow water. The results indicated that both anthropogenic heat and artificial land cover increased the amount of precipitation and that the effect of artificial land cover was larger than that of anthropogenic heat. However, in the middle stage of the precipitation event, the difference between the two effects became small. Weak surface heating in NOAH and NOLC reduced the near-surface air temperature and weakened the convergence of horizontal wind and updraft over the urban areas, resulting in a reduced rainfall amount compared with that in CTRL.

The Identification of Hail Storms in the Early Stage Using Time Series Analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Ping; Shi, Jinyu; Hou, Jinyi; Hu, Yan

2018-01-01

This study investigates the characteristics of hail storms and cumulonimbus storms in China from 2005 to 2016. Ten features are proposed to identify storm cells that can produce hail, especially in the early stage of hail formation. These features describe hail storms based on three factors: the height and thickness of the cell core, the radar echo intensity, and the overhang structure and the horizontal reflectivity gradient. The 10 features are transformed into two-dimensional comprehensive features by principal component analysis (PCA). The two comprehensive features are named the volume measurement comprehensive feature (VMCF) and the height-gradient comprehensive feature (HGCF). Through an analysis of 49 hail cases and 35 heavy rainfall cases with S-band radar data, the time series exhibit a distinct increase in VMCF or HGCF values in the early stage of a hail storm. However, the VMCF and HGCF values of heavy rainfall events remain relatively stable throughout the storm life cycle. An experiment involving real-storm events, including 31 hail cases and 33 heavy rainfall cases, indicated that the probability of detection of hail storms was 93.33% and the false alarm ratio was 15.66%. In the cases that could be successfully identified as hail storms, 80.00% were detected within 18 min of reaching a hail storm reflectivity of 40 dBZ.

Rodent-borne infectious disease outbreaks after flooding disasters: Epidemiology, management, and prevention.

PubMed

Diaz, James H

2015-01-01

To alert clinicians to the climatic conditions that can precipitate outbreaks of the rodent-borne infectious diseases most often associated with flooding disasters, leptospirosis (LS), and the Hantavirus-caused diseases, hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome (HFRS) and Hantavirus pulmonary syndrome (HPS); to describe the epidemiology and presenting clinical manifestations and outcomes of these rodent-borne infectious diseases; and to recommend both prophylactic therapies and effective control and prevention strategies for rodent-borne infectious diseases. Internet search engines, including Google®, Google Scholar®, Pub Med, Medline, and Ovid, were queried with the key words as search terms to examine the latest scientific articles on rodent-borne infectious disease outbreaks in the United States and worldwide to describe the epidemiology and presenting clinical manifestations and outcomes of LS and Hantavirus outbreaks. Not applicable. Not applicable. Not applicable. Rodent-borne infectious disease outbreaks following heavy rainfall and flooding disasters. Heavy rainfall encourages excessive wild grass seed production that supports increased outdoor rodent population densities; and flooding forces rodents from their burrows near water sources into the built environment and closer to humans. Healthcare providers should maintain high levels of suspicion for LS in patients developing febrile illnesses after contaminated freshwater exposures following heavy rainfall, flooding, and even freshwater recreational events; and for Hantavirus-caused infectious diseases in patients with hemorrhagic fevers that progress rapidly to respiratory or renal failure following rodent exposures.

Simulating Daily and Sub-daily Water Flow in Large, Semi-arid Watershed Using SWAT: A Case Study of Nueces River Basin, Texas

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bassam, S.; Ren, J.

2015-12-01

Runoff generated during heavy rainfall imposes quick, but often intense, changes in the flow of streams, which increase the chance of flash floods in the vicinity of the streams. Understanding the temporal response of streams to heavy rainfall requires a hydrological model that considers meteorological, hydrological, and geological components of the streams and their watersheds. SWAT is a physically-based, semi-distributed model that is capable of simulating water flow within watersheds with both long-term, i.e. annually and monthly, and short-term (daily and sub-daily) time scales. However, the capability of SWAT in sub-daily water flow modeling within large watersheds has not been studied much, compare to long-term and daily time scales. In this study we are investigating the water flow in a large, semi-arid watershed, Nueces River Basin (NRB) with the drainage area of 16950 mi2 located in South Texas, with daily and sub-daily time scales. The objectives of this study are: (1) simulating the response of streams to heavy, and often quick, rainfall, (2) evaluating SWAT performance in sub-daily modeling of water flow within a large watershed, and (3) examining means for model performance improvement during model calibration and verification based on results of sensitivity and uncertainty analysis. The results of this study can provide important information for water resources planning during flood seasons.

Processing of fish lg heavy chain transcripts diverse splicing patterns and unusual nonsense mediated decay

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Alternate pathways of RNA processing play an important role in the expression of the secreted (S) and membrane (Mb) forms of immunoglobulin (Ig) heavy (H) chain isotypes in all vertebrates. Interestingly, while the differential splicing mechanism and the splice sites that generate the two forms of I...

Laithwaite's Heavy Spinning Disk Demonstration

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Cross, Rod

2014-01-01

In 1974, Professor Eric Laithwaite demonstrated an unusually heavy gyroscope at a Royal Institution lecture in London. The demonstration was televised and can be viewed on YouTube. A recent version of the same experiment, together with partial explanations, attracted two million YouTube views in the first few months. In both cases, the gyroscope…

Predicting Average Vehicle Speed in Two Lane Highways Considering Weather Condition and Traffic Characteristics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mirbaha, Babak; Saffarzadeh, Mahmoud; AmirHossein Beheshty, Seyed; Aniran, MirMoosa; Yazdani, Mirbahador; Shirini, Bahram

2017-10-01

Analysis of vehicle speed with different weather condition and traffic characteristics is very effective in traffic planning. Since the weather condition and traffic characteristics vary every day, the prediction of average speed can be useful in traffic management plans. In this study, traffic and weather data for a two-lane highway located in Northwest of Iran were selected for analysis. After merging traffic and weather data, the linear regression model was calibrated for speed prediction using STATA12.1 Statistical and Data Analysis software. Variables like vehicle flow, percentage of heavy vehicles, vehicle flow in opposing lane, percentage of heavy vehicles in opposing lane, rainfall (mm), snowfall and maximum daily wind speed more than 13m/s were found to be significant variables in the model. Results showed that variables of vehicle flow and heavy vehicle percent acquired the positive coefficient that shows, by increasing these variables the average vehicle speed in every weather condition will also increase. Vehicle flow in opposing lane, percentage of heavy vehicle in opposing lane, rainfall amount (mm), snowfall and maximum daily wind speed more than 13m/s acquired the negative coefficient that shows by increasing these variables, the average vehicle speed will decrease.

Molecular and serological studies on the Rift Valley fever outbreak in Mauritania in 2010.

PubMed

Jäckel, S; Eiden, M; El Mamy, B O; Isselmou, K; Vina-Rodriguez, A; Doumbia, B; Groschup, M H

2013-11-01

Rift Valley fever virus (RVFV) is a vector-borne RNA virus affecting humans, livestock and wildlife. In October/November 2010, after a period of unusually heavy rainfall, a Rift Valley fever outbreak occurred in northern Mauritania causing clinical cases in cattle, sheep, goats and camels, 21 of which were of lethal outcome. The aim of this study was to obtain further information on the continuation of RVF virus activity and spread in animal species in Mauritania after this outbreak. We therefore tested sera from small ruminants, cattle and camels for the presence of viral RNA and antibodies against RVFV. These sera were collected in different parts of the country from December 2010 to February 2011 and tested with three different ELISAs and an indirect immunofluorescence assay. The results show a high seroprevalence of RVFV IgM and IgG antibodies of about 57% in all animals investigated. Moreover, in four camel sera, viral RNA was detected emphasizing the important role camels played during the latest RVF outbreak in Mauritania. The study demonstrates the continuous spread of RVFV in Mauritania after initial emergence and highlights the potential role of small ruminants and camels in virus dissemination. © 2013 Blackwell Verlag GmbH.

Landslides triggered by an earthquake and heavy rainfalls at Aso volcano, Japan, detected by UAS and SfM-MVS photogrammetry

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Saito, Hitoshi; Uchiyama, Shoichiro; Hayakawa, Yuichi S.; Obanawa, Hiroyuki

2018-12-01

Unmanned aerial systems (UASs) and structure-from-motion multi-view stereo (SfM-MVS) photogrammetry have attracted a tremendous amount of interest for use in the creation of high-definition topographic data for geoscientific studies. By using these techniques, this study examined the topographic characteristics of coseismic landslides triggered by the 2016 Kumamoto earthquake (Mw 7.1) in the Sensuikyo area (1.0 km2) at Aso volcano, Japan. The study area has frequently experienced rainfall-induced landslide events, such as those in 1990, 2001, and 2012. We obtained orthorectified images and digital surface models (DSMs) with a spatial resolution of 0.06 m before and after the 2016 Kumamoto earthquake. By using these high-definition images and DSMs, we detected a total of 54 coseismic landslides with volumes of 9.1-3994.6 m3. These landslides, many of which initiated near topographic ridges, were typically located on upside hillslopes of previous rainfall-induced landslide scars that formed in 2012. This result suggests that the topographic effect on seismic waves, i.e., amplification of ground acceleration, was important for coseismic landslide initiation in the study area. The average depth of the coseismic landslides was 1.5 m, which is deeper than the depth of the rainfall-induced landslides prior to these. The total sediment production of the coseismic landslides reached 2.5 × 104 m3/km2, which is of the same order as the sediment production triggered by the previous single heavy rainfall event. This result indicates that the effects of the 2016 Kumamoto earthquake in terms of sediment production and topographic changes were similar to those of the rainfall-induced landslide event in the study area.

Characterization and first flush analysis in road and roof runoff in Shenyang, China.

PubMed

Li, Chunlin; Liu, Miao; Hu, Yuanman; Gong, Jiping; Sun, Fengyun; Xu, Yanyan

2014-01-01

As urbanization increases, urban runoff is an increasingly important component of total urban non-point source pollution. In this study, the properties of urban runoff were examined in Shenyang, in northeastern China. Runoff samples from a tiled roof, a concrete roof and a main road were analyzed for key pollutants (total suspended solids (TSS), total nitrogen (TN), total phosphorus (TP), chemical oxygen demand (COD), Pb, Cd, Cr, Cu, Ni, and Zn). The event mean concentration, site mean concentration, M(V) curves (dimensionless cumulative curve of pollutant load with runoff volume), and mass first flush ratio (MFF30) were used to analyze the characteristics of pollutant discharge and first flush (FF) effect. For all events, the pollutant concentration peaks occurred in the first half-hour after the runoff appeared and preceded the flow peaks. TN is the main pollutant in roof runoff. TSS, TN, TP, Pb, and Cr are the main pollutants in road runoff in Shenyang. There was a significant correlation between TSS and other pollutants except TN in runoff, which illustrated that TSS was an important carrier of organic matter and heavy metals. TN had strong positive correlations with total rainfall (Pearson's r = 0.927), average rainfall (Pearson's r = 0.995), and maximum rainfall intensity (Pearson's r = 0.991). TP had a strong correlation with rainfall intensity (Pearson's r = 0.940). A significant positive correlation between COD and rainfall duration (Pearson's r = 0.902, significance level = 0.05) was found. The order of FF intensity in different surfaces was concrete roof > tile roof > road. Rainfall duration and the length of the antecedent dry period were positively correlated with the FF. TN tended to exhibit strong flush for some events. Heavy metals showed a substantially stronger FF than other pollutant.

Climate Change Impact on Neotropical Social Wasps

PubMed Central

Dejean, Alain; Céréghino, Régis; Carpenter, James M.; Corbara, Bruno; Hérault, Bruno; Rossi, Vivien; Leponce, Maurice; Orivel, Jérome; Bonal, Damien

2011-01-01

Establishing a direct link between climate change and fluctuations in animal populations through long-term monitoring is difficult given the paucity of baseline data. We hypothesized that social wasps are sensitive to climatic variations, and thus studied the impact of ENSO events on social wasp populations in French Guiana. We noted that during the 2000 La Niña year there was a 77.1% decrease in their nest abundance along ca. 5 km of forest edges, and that 70.5% of the species were no longer present. Two simultaneous 13-year surveys (1997–2009) confirmed the decrease in social wasps during La Niña years (2000 and 2006), while an increase occurred during the 2009 El Niño year. A 30-year weather survey showed that these phenomena corresponded to particularly high levels of rainfall, and that temperature, humidity and global solar radiation were correlated with rainfall. Using the Self-Organizing Map algorithm, we show that heavy rainfall during an entire rainy season has a negative impact on social wasps. Strong contrasts in rainfall between the dry season and the short rainy season exacerbate this effect. Social wasp populations never recovered to their pre-2000 levels. This is probably because these conditions occurred over four years; heavy rainfall during the major rainy seasons during four other years also had a detrimental effect. On the contrary, low levels of rainfall during the major rainy season in 2009 spurred an increase in social wasp populations. We conclude that recent climatic changes have likely resulted in fewer social wasp colonies because they have lowered the wasps' resistance to parasitoids and pathogens. These results imply that Neotropical social wasps can be regarded as bio-indicators because they highlight the impact of climatic changes not yet perceptible in plants and other animals. PMID:22073236

Satellite observations of rainfall effect on sea surface salinity in the waters adjacent to Taiwan

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ho, Chung-Ru; Hsu, Po-Chun; Lin, Chen-Chih; Huang, Shih-Jen

2017-10-01

Changes of oceanic salinity are highly related to the variations of evaporation and precipitation. To understand the influence of rainfall on the sea surface salinity (SSS) in the waters adjacent to Taiwan, satellite remote sensing data from the year of 2012 to 2014 are employed in this study. The daily rain rate data obtained from Special Sensor Microwave Imager (SSM/I), Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission's Microwave Imager (TRMM/TMI), Advanced Microwave Scanning Radiometer (AMSR), and WindSat Polarimetric Radiometer. The SSS data was derived from the measurements of radiometer instruments onboard the Aquarius satellite. The results show the average values of SSS in east of Taiwan, east of Luzon and South China Sea are 33.83 psu, 34.05 psu, and 32.84 psu, respectively, in the condition of daily rain rate higher than 1 mm/hr. In contrast to the rainfall condition, the average values of SSS are 34.07 psu, 34.26 psu, and 33.09 psu in the three areas, respectively at no rain condition (rain rate less than 1 mm/hr). During the cases of heavy rainfall caused by spiral rain bands of typhoon, the SSS is diluted with an average value of -0.78 psu when the average rain rate is higher than 4 mm/hr. However, the SSS was increased after temporarily decreased during the typhoon cases. A possible reason to explain this phenomenon is that the heavy rainfall caused by the spiral rain bands of typhoon may dilute the sea surface water, but the strong winds can uplift the higher salinity of subsurface water to the sea surface.

Climate change impact on neotropical social wasps.

PubMed

Dejean, Alain; Céréghino, Régis; Carpenter, James M; Corbara, Bruno; Hérault, Bruno; Rossi, Vivien; Leponce, Maurice; Orivel, Jérome; Bonal, Damien

2011-01-01

Establishing a direct link between climate change and fluctuations in animal populations through long-term monitoring is difficult given the paucity of baseline data. We hypothesized that social wasps are sensitive to climatic variations, and thus studied the impact of ENSO events on social wasp populations in French Guiana. We noted that during the 2000 La Niña year there was a 77.1% decrease in their nest abundance along ca. 5 km of forest edges, and that 70.5% of the species were no longer present. Two simultaneous 13-year surveys (1997-2009) confirmed the decrease in social wasps during La Niña years (2000 and 2006), while an increase occurred during the 2009 El Niño year. A 30-year weather survey showed that these phenomena corresponded to particularly high levels of rainfall, and that temperature, humidity and global solar radiation were correlated with rainfall. Using the Self-Organizing Map algorithm, we show that heavy rainfall during an entire rainy season has a negative impact on social wasps. Strong contrasts in rainfall between the dry season and the short rainy season exacerbate this effect. Social wasp populations never recovered to their pre-2000 levels. This is probably because these conditions occurred over four years; heavy rainfall during the major rainy seasons during four other years also had a detrimental effect. On the contrary, low levels of rainfall during the major rainy season in 2009 spurred an increase in social wasp populations. We conclude that recent climatic changes have likely resulted in fewer social wasp colonies because they have lowered the wasps' resistance to parasitoids and pathogens. These results imply that Neotropical social wasps can be regarded as bio-indicators because they highlight the impact of climatic changes not yet perceptible in plants and other animals.

Adjusting Satellite Rainfall Error in Mountainous Areas for Flood Modeling Applications

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, X.; Anagnostou, E. N.; Astitha, M.; Vergara, H. J.; Gourley, J. J.; Hong, Y.

2014-12-01

This study aims to investigate the use of high-resolution Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) for evaluating biases of satellite rainfall estimates of flood-inducing storms in mountainous areas and associated improvements in flood modeling. Satellite-retrieved precipitation has been considered as a feasible data source for global-scale flood modeling, given that satellite has the spatial coverage advantage over in situ (rain gauges and radar) observations particularly over mountainous areas. However, orographically induced heavy precipitation events tend to be underestimated and spatially smoothed by satellite products, which error propagates non-linearly in flood simulations.We apply a recently developed retrieval error and resolution effect correction method (Zhang et al. 2013*) on the NOAA Climate Prediction Center morphing technique (CMORPH) product based on NWP analysis (or forecasting in the case of real-time satellite products). The NWP rainfall is derived from the Weather Research and Forecasting Model (WRF) set up with high spatial resolution (1-2 km) and explicit treatment of precipitation microphysics.In this study we will show results on NWP-adjusted CMORPH rain rates based on tropical cyclones and a convective precipitation event measured during NASA's IPHEX experiment in the South Appalachian region. We will use hydrologic simulations over different basins in the region to evaluate propagation of bias correction in flood simulations. We show that the adjustment reduced the underestimation of high rain rates thus moderating the strong rainfall magnitude dependence of CMORPH rainfall bias, which results in significant improvement in flood peak simulations. Further study over Blue Nile Basin (western Ethiopia) will be investigated and included in the presentation. *Zhang, X. et al. 2013: Using NWP Simulations in Satellite Rainfall Estimation of Heavy Precipitation Events over Mountainous Areas. J. Hydrometeor, 14, 1844-1858.

A comparison of groundwater recharge estimation methods in a semi-arid, coastal avocado and citrus orchard (Ventura County, California)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Grismer, Mark E.; Bachman, S.; Powers, T.

2000-10-01

We assess the relative merits of application of the most commonly used field methods (soil-water balance (SWB), chloride mass balance (CMB) and soil moisture monitoring (NP)) to determine recharge rates in micro-irrigated and non-irrigated areas of a semi-arid coastal orchard located in a relatively complex geological environment.Application of the CMB method to estimate recharge rates was difficult owing to the unusually high, variable soil-water chloride concentrations. In addition, contrary to that expected, the chloride concentration distribution at depths below the root zone in the non-irrigated soil profiles was greater than that in the irrigated profiles. The CMB method severely underestimated recharge rates in the non-irrigated areas when compared with the other methods, although the CMB method estimated recharge rates for the irrigated areas, that were similar to those from the other methods, ranging from 42 to 141 mm/year.The SWB method, constructed for a 15-year period, provided insight into the recharge process being driven by winter rains rather than summer irrigation and indicated an average rate of 75 mm/year and 164 mm/year for the 1984 - 98 and 1996 - 98 periods, respectively. Assuming similar soil-water holding capacity, these recharge rates applied to both irrigated and non-irrigated areas. Use of the long period of record was important because it encompassed both drought and heavy rainfall years. Successful application of the SWB method, however, required considerable additional field measurements of orchard ETc, soil-water holding capacity and estimation of rainfall interception - runoff losses.Continuous soil moisture monitoring (NP) was necessary to identify both daily and seasonal seepage processes to corroborate the other recharge estimates. Measured recharge rates during the 1996 - 1998 period in both the orchards and non-irrigated site averaged 180 mm/year. The pattern of soil profile drying during the summer irrigation season, followed by progressive wetting during the winter rainy season was observed in both irrigated and non-irrigated soil profiles, confirming that groundwater recharge was rainfall driven and that micro-irrigation did not predispose the soil profile to excess rainfall recharge. The ability to make this recharge assessment, however, depended on making multiple field measurements associated with all three methods, suggesting that any one should not be used alone.

Quadrupolar Kondo effect in uranium heavy-electron materials?

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Cox, D. L.

1987-01-01

The possibility of an electric quadrupole Kondo effect for a non-Kramers doublet on a uranium (U) ion is a cubic metallic host is demonstrated by model calculations showing a Kondo upturn in the resistivity, universal quenching of the quadrupolar moment, and a heavy-electron anomaly in the electronic specific heat. With inclusion of excited crystal-field levels, some of the unusual magnetic-response data in the heavy-electron superconductor UBe13 may be understood. Structural phase transitions at unprecedented low temperatures may occur in U-based heavy-electron materials.

Factors contributing to unusually low runoff during the period 1962-68 in the Concho River Basin, Texas

USGS Publications Warehouse

Sauer, Stanley P.

1972-01-01

The analyses of rainfall-intensity and runoff data indicate that the basic cause for the relatively low runoff during the period 1962-68 was the lack of high-intensity, long-duration storms rather than any physical changes or agricultural practices in the watershed

Quantifying rainfall-derived inflow and infiltration in sanitary sewer systems based on conductivity monitoring

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, Mingkai; Liu, Yanchen; Cheng, Xun; Zhu, David Z.; Shi, Hanchang; Yuan, Zhiguo

2018-03-01

Quantifying rainfall-derived inflow and infiltration (RDII) in a sanitary sewer is difficult when RDII and overflow occur simultaneously. This study proposes a novel conductivity-based method for estimating RDII. The method separately decomposes rainfall-derived inflow (RDI) and rainfall-induced infiltration (RII) on the basis of conductivity data. Fast Fourier transform was adopted to analyze variations in the flow and water quality during dry weather. Nonlinear curve fitting based on the least squares algorithm was used to optimize parameters in the proposed RDII model. The method was successfully applied to real-life case studies, in which inflow and infiltration were successfully estimated for three typical rainfall events with total rainfall volumes of 6.25 mm (light), 28.15 mm (medium), and 178 mm (heavy). Uncertainties of model parameters were estimated using the generalized likelihood uncertainty estimation (GLUE) method and were found to be acceptable. Compared with traditional flow-based methods, the proposed approach exhibits distinct advantages in estimating RDII and overflow, particularly when the two processes happen simultaneously.

Subtropical westerly jet waveguide and winter persistent heavy rainfall in south China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ding, Feng; Li, Chun

2017-07-01

Using observed daily precipitation and National Centers for Environmental Prediction-National Center for Atmospheric Research reanalysis data, what induced winter large spatial persistent heavy rainfall (PHR) events in south China was examined, based on composite analyses of 30 large spatial PHR events during 1951-2015. The results showed that wave trains within North Africa-Asia (NAA) westerly jet existed in upper troposphere during these PHR processes. The wave trains shared the characteristic of a Rossby wave. The Rossby wave originated from northwest Europe, entered into the NAA jet through strong cold air advection to form convergence over the Mediterranean, and then propagated eastward along subtropical NAA jet. The Rossby wave propagated toward Southeast Asia and caused strong divergence in the upper troposphere. The strong divergence in the upper troposphere induced vertical convection and favored large spatial PHR events in south China. In addition, the enhanced India-Burma trough and subtropical high in the northwestern Pacific supplied enough water vapor transportation. This mechanism would be useful to the medium-range forecast of such winter rainfall processes over south China.

Assessment of rain water chemistry in the Lucknow metropolitan city

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sharma, Purnima; Rai, Vibhuti

2018-05-01

Lucknow metropolitan city is one of the most populated cities of India, which have been facing many problems such as chaotic urbanization, overpopulation, water scarcity, waterlogging, etc., among these water scarcity is one of the important problem. Rain water harvesting is a futuristic tool for mitigation of water scarcity problem through conservation and storage of rain water. This rain water can be used for all purposes by human beings, thus it is necessary to check the chemistry of rain water. The rain water samples were collected from the five zones of Lucknow city. For the comparative study, water samples have been collected from two different dates first from first rainfall and second after 3 days of interval in the second rainfall. The heavy metal concentrations were found in both first and second rainfall water samples in all zones of Lucknow city. The concentration of chromium, cadmium and lead were found to be sufficiently high in several samples. These heavy metals show the concentration above the permissible limit as set by WHO, which can cause various adverse health impacts.

Comparison of Imerg Half Hourly Final GPM data with Rain Gauge for Riyadh City, Kingdom of Saudi Arabia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tekeli, E.; Dönmez, S.

2016-12-01

Being launched in 1997 with the main goal of measuring moderate to heavy rainfall, TRMM enabled invaluable service to remote sensing and hydrology community with data more than 17 years. Based on TRMM experience, GPM was launched in 2014. GPM with increased radar sensitivity and higher spatial resolutions, is expected to enable better light rain and snowfall detection. In here, light rainfall detection capacity of IMERG Half hourly final GPM (IFHH) product is investigated for Riyadh City in Kingdom of Saudi Arabia. A tipping bucket rain gauge located on the roof of King Saud University Civil Engineering Department provided rainfall measurements in 10 minute intervals from 22 November 2014 till 11 Jun 2015. Obtained rain gauge data indicated 72 light rain (rain rate [rr] ≤2.5mm/h) 5 medium rain (2.5mm/hPreliminary results indicate that IFHH overestimate most of the light rain. For the medium and heavy rain rates, IFHH showed under estimations. As one of the major goals of GPM is accurate light rain detection, similar studies should be continued and databases should be formed.

A Robust Response of Precipitation to Global Warming from CMIP5 Models

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lau, K. -M.; Wu, H. -T.; Kim, K. -M.

2012-01-01

How precipitation responds to global warming is a major concern to society and a challenge to climate change research. Based on analyses of rainfall probability distribution functions of 14 state-of-the-art climate models, we find a robust, canonical global rainfall response to a triple CO2 warming scenario, featuring 100 250% more heavy rain, 5-10% less moderate rain, and 10-15% more very light or no-rain events. Regionally, a majority of the models project a consistent response with more heavy rain events over climatologically wet regions of the deep tropics, and more dry events over subtropical and tropical land areas. Results suggest that increased CO2 emissions induce basic structural changes in global rain systems, increasing risks of severe floods and droughts in preferred geographic locations worldwide.

Based on the rainfall system platform raindrops research and analysis of pressure loss

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cao, Gang; Sun, Jian

2018-01-01

With the rapid development of China’s military career, land, sea and air force all services and equipment of modern equipment need to be in the rain test, and verify its might suffer during transportation, storage or use a different environment temperature lower water or use underwater, the water is derived from the heavy rain, the wind and rain, sprinkler system, splash water, water wheel, a violent shock waves or use underwater, etcTest the product performance and quality, under the condition of rainfall system platform in the process of development, how to control the raindrops pressure loss becomes the key to whether the system can simulate the real rainfall [1], this paper is according to the rainfall intensity, nozzle flow resistance, meet water flow of rain pressure loss calculation and analysis, and system arrangement of the optimal solution of rainfall is obtained [2].

Evaluation of High-Resolution Precipitation Estimates from Satellites during July 2012 Beijing Flood Event Using Dense Rain Gauge Observations

PubMed Central

Chen, Sheng; Liu, Huijuan; You, Yalei; Mullens, Esther; Hu, Junjun; Yuan, Ye; Huang, Mengyu; He, Li; Luo, Yongming; Zeng, Xingji; Tang, Guoqiang; Hong, Yang

2014-01-01

Satellite-based precipitation estimates products, CMORPH and PERSIANN-CCS, were evaluated with a dense rain gauge network over Beijing and adjacent regions for an extremely heavy precipitation event on July 21 2012. CMORPH and PEERSIANN-CSS misplaced the region of greatest rainfall accumulation, and failed to capture the spatial pattern of precipitation, evidenced by a low spatial correlation coefficient (CC). CMORPH overestimated the daily accumulated rainfall by 22.84% while PERSIANN-CCS underestimated by 72.75%. In the rainfall center, both CMORPH and PERSIANN-CCS failed to capture the temporal variation of the rainfall, and underestimated rainfall amounts by 43.43% and 87.26%, respectively. Based on our results, caution should be exercised when using CMORPH and PERSIANN-CCS as input for monitoring and forecasting floods in Beijing urban areas, and the potential for landslides in the mountainous zones west and north of Beijing. PMID:24691358

Evaluation of high-resolution precipitation estimates from satellites during July 2012 Beijing flood event using dense rain gauge observations.

PubMed

Chen, Sheng; Liu, Huijuan; You, Yalei; Mullens, Esther; Hu, Junjun; Yuan, Ye; Huang, Mengyu; He, Li; Luo, Yongming; Zeng, Xingji; Tang, Guoqiang; Hong, Yang

2014-01-01

Satellite-based precipitation estimates products, CMORPH and PERSIANN-CCS, were evaluated with a dense rain gauge network over Beijing and adjacent regions for an extremely heavy precipitation event on July 21 2012. CMORPH and PEERSIANN-CSS misplaced the region of greatest rainfall accumulation, and failed to capture the spatial pattern of precipitation, evidenced by a low spatial correlation coefficient (CC). CMORPH overestimated the daily accumulated rainfall by 22.84% while PERSIANN-CCS underestimated by 72.75%. In the rainfall center, both CMORPH and PERSIANN-CCS failed to capture the temporal variation of the rainfall, and underestimated rainfall amounts by 43.43% and 87.26%, respectively. Based on our results, caution should be exercised when using CMORPH and PERSIANN-CCS as input for monitoring and forecasting floods in Beijing urban areas, and the potential for landslides in the mountainous zones west and north of Beijing.

The global landslide distribution in the 2015-16 El Nino event

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Petley, D. N.; Froude, M.

2016-12-01

It is commonly perceived that the global landslide distribution is heavily influenced by the El Nino / La Nina cycle, and that strong El Nino events are associated with a higher than average occurrence of landslides in many areas. Thus, for example, the very intense 1997-98 El Nino event coincided with high incidence of landslides in parts of North America and South America, and elsewhere. However, there is comparatively little systematic analysis on a global basis. The 2015-16 El Nino event was the most intense since 1997-98, and had been anticipated to generate significant landslide impacts. The occurrence of landslides worldwide through the 2015-16 El Nino has been examined using the author's landslide fatality database, which has been compiled since 2002. The data indicates that 2015 was a year with an unusually small number of rainfall-induced landslides, significantly below the long term average and with unusually low consequences. This is primarily because of two key factors: first, the South Asian monsoon was anomalously weak, resulting in low landslide impacts in the Himalayas. Second, the occurrence of intense landfalling tropical cyclones across East Asia was also unusually low. The combined effect of these two sets of meteorological conditions was low landslide occurrence across Asia. Landslide occurrence across the Americas was also low. On the other hand, 2016 is proving to be an unusually intense landslide year. In particular, intense rainfall associated with early part of the South Asian monsoon has resulted in very widespread landsliding across South Asia. This paper examines the lessons that can be learnt from an improved understanding the relationship between El Nino events and global landslide impacts, and reflects upon the capability to anticipate the impacts of future large El Nino events.

Rainfall-ground movement modelling for natural gas pipelines through landslide terrain

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

O`Neil, G.D.; Simmonds, G.R.; Grivas, D.A.

1996-12-31

Perhaps the greatest challenge to geotechnical engineers is to maintain the integrity of pipelines at river crossings where landslide terrain dominates the approach slopes. The current design process at NOVA Gas Transmission Ltd. (NGTL) has developed to the point where this impact can be reasonably estimated using in-house models of pipeline-soil interaction. To date, there has been no method to estimate ground movements within unexplored slopes at the outset of the design process. To address this problem, rainfall and slope instrumentation data have been processed to derive rainfall-ground movement relationships. Early results indicate that the ground movements exhibit two components:more » a steady, small rate of movement independent of the rainfall, and, increased rates over short periods of time following heavy amounts of rainfall. Evidence exists of a definite threshold value of rainfall which has to be exceeded before any incremental movement is induced. Additional evidence indicates a one-month lag between rainfall and ground movement. While these models are in the preliminary stage, results indicate a potential to estimate ground movements for both initial design and planned maintenance actions.« less

Global Warming Induced Changes in Rainfall Characteristics in IPCC AR5 Models

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lau, William K. M.; Wu, Jenny, H.-T.; Kim, Kyu-Myong

2012-01-01

Changes in rainfall characteristic induced by global warming are examined from outputs of IPCC AR5 models. Different scenarios of climate warming including a high emissions scenario (RCP 8.5), a medium mitigation scenario (RCP 4.5), and 1% per year CO2 increase are compared to 20th century simulations (historical). Results show that even though the spatial distribution of monthly rainfall anomalies vary greatly among models, the ensemble mean from a sizable sample (about 10) of AR5 models show a robust signal attributable to GHG warming featuring a shift in the global rainfall probability distribution function (PDF) with significant increase (>100%) in very heavy rain, reduction (10-20% ) in moderate rain and increase in light to very light rains. Changes in extreme rainfall as a function of seasons and latitudes are also examined, and are similar to the non-seasonal stratified data, but with more specific spatial dependence. These results are consistent from TRMM and GPCP rainfall observations suggesting that extreme rainfall events are occurring more frequently with wet areas getting wetter and dry-area-getting drier in a GHG induced warmer climate.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Ghosh, Subimal; Das, Debasish; Kao, Shih-Chieh

Recent studies disagree on how rainfall extremes over India have changed in space and time over the past half century, as well as on whether the changes observed are due to global warming or regional urbanization. Although a uniform and consistent decrease in moderate rainfall has been reported, a lack of agreement about trends in heavy rainfall may be due in part to differences in the characterization and spatial averaging of extremes. Here we use extreme value theory to examine trends in Indian rainfall over the past half century in the context of long-term, low-frequency variability.We show that when generalizedmore » extreme value theory is applied to annual maximum rainfall over India, no statistically significant spatially uniform trends are observed, in agreement with previous studies using different approaches. Furthermore, our space time regression analysis of the return levels points to increasing spatial variability of rainfall extremes over India. Our findings highlight the need for systematic examination of global versus regional drivers of trends in Indian rainfall extremes, and may help to inform flood hazard preparedness and water resource management in the region.« less

Temporal change of SF6 age in spring during rainstorms in a forested headwater catchment, Fukushima, Japan

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sakakibara, Koichi; Tsujimura, Maki; Onda, Yuichi; Iwagami, Sho; Sato, Yutaro; Nagano, Kosuke

2017-04-01

Time variant water age in catchments can fundamentally describe catchment function, controlling rainfall-runoff generation, groundwater flow pathway, and water storage. We observed sulfur hexafluoride concentration in the stream and groundwater with 1 - 2 hours interval during rainstorm events in order to reveal temporal variations of rainfall-runoff water age. Target's spring is perennial in a forested headwater catchment with an area of 0.045 square km, Fukushima, Japan. The observed hydrological data and tracer data of water in the catchment (stable isotopic compositions, inorganic solute concentrations) were used for clarifying rainfall-runoff processes related to water age variances. The storm hydrograph and groundwater table clearly responded to rainfall especially with more than 30 mm per day throughout the monitoring period (May 2015 - October 2016). Large variations of SF6 age in spring ranging from zero to 14 years were found in the short period during rainstorms. In particular, the SF6 age in spring was evidently old when the runoff was over 2 mm per day. At the high runoff condition, the SF6 age in spring positively correlated with discharge rate: the spring age became older as the discharge rate increased. With regard to spatial distributions of SF6 age in groundwater, the old groundwater age (9 - 13 years) in the shallow subsurface area along the valley was confirmed after heavy rainfall. This groundwater age was similar age to the deep groundwater at no-rainfall conditions. In addition, inorganic solute concentrations such as chloride ion, sodium ion, and silica in spring water showed dominant levels in the deep and ridge groundwater. All facts suggest that the old groundwater, stored in the ridge or deeper subsurface area, replaced the shallow groundwater in the vicinity of the spring due to heavy rainfall, then it contributed to the spring discharge. Therefore, rainstorm events play important roles as triggers for discharging older water stored in the catchment, causing dynamic changes of groundwater flow system.

Monitoring of unstable slopes by MEMS tilting sensors and its application to early warning

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Towhata, I.; Uchimura, T.; Seko, I.; Wang, L.

2015-09-01

The present paper addresses the newly developed early warning technology that can help mitigate the slope failure disasters during heavy rains. Many studies have been carried out in the recent times on early warning that is based on rainfall records. Although those rainfall criteria of slope failure tells the probability of disaster on a regional scale, it is difficult for them to judge the risk of particular slopes. This is because the rainfall intensity is spatially too variable to forecast and the early warning based on rainfall alone cannot take into account the effects of local geology, hydrology and topography that vary spatially as well. In this regard, the authors developed an alternative technology in which the slope displacement/deformation is monitored and early warning is issued when a new criterion is satisfied. The new MEMS-based sensor monitors the tilting angle of an instrument that is embedded at a very shallow depth and the record of the tilting angle corresponds to the lateral displacement at the slope surface. Thus, the rate of tilting angle that exceeds a new criterion value implies an imminent slope failure. This technology has been validated against several events of slope failures as well as against a field rainfall test. Those validations have made it possible to determine the criterion value of the rate of tilting angle to be 0.1 degree/hour. The advantage of the MEMS tilting sensor lies in its low cost. Hence, it is possible to install many low-cost sensors over a suspected slope in which the precise range of what is going to fall down during the next rainfall is unknown. In addition to the past validations, this paper also introduces a recent application to a failed slope in the Izu Oshima Island where a heavy rainfall-induced slope failure occurred in October, 2013.

Detecting Trends in Tropical Rainfall Characteristics, 1979-2003

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lau, K. M.; Wu, H. T.

2006-01-01

From analyses of blended space-based and ground-based global rainfall data, we found increasing trends in the occurrence of extreme heavy and light rain events, coupled to a decreasing trend in moderate rain events in the tropics during 1979-2003. The trends are consistent with a shift in the large-scale circulation associated with a) a relatively uniform increase in warm rain over the tropical oceans, b) enhanced ice-phase rain over the near-equatorial oceans, and c) reduced mixed-phase rain over the tropical ocean and land regions. Due to the large compensation among different rain categories, the total tropical rainfall trend remained undetectable.

The Estimation of Future Pump Capacity for the Urban Drainage System under Climate Change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kang, Narae; Noh, Huiseong; Kim, Yonsoo; Lee, Jongso; Kim, Hungsoo

2013-04-01

In the recent years, flash flood and local heavy rainfall have been frequently occurred in Korea and this may be due to the climate change. Korea Meteorological Administration(KMA) and IPCC AR5 reported new greenhouse gas scenario called RCPs(Representative concentration pathways) which are becoming an interesting subject in the field of water resources. These days, the urban areas in the Korean Peninsula have been suffered from the floods, almost every year, by the localized heavy rainfall and this abnormal rainfall may be due to the climate change. Also, the runoff in the urban area has increased due to the rapid urbanization and so the current design rainfall could not be proper any more for accommodating the abnormal runoff capacity. When we determine the frequency of drainage facilities, the maximum flood discharge from the recorded rainfall intensity is used as the design capacity of the facilities. However, there is a need to examine the future rainfall tendency for the re-establishment of the design criteria of the facilities under the climate change, since the recorded rainfall intensity does not reflect the trend of the abnormal rainfall which can be occurred. This study tries to analyze the variability and trend of future rainfall using RCP scenarios and estimate the future capacity at existing pumping station for the urban drainage system. The future projection periods are set to the next 90 years(2011-2100) and are divided into three cases; Target I : 2011~2040 yrs, Target II : 2041~2070 yrs, and Target III : 2071~2100 yrs. The study area is Incheon-city, Korea which has 9 pumping stations. According to the RCP 8.5 scenario which is the worst scenario of RCPs, the Target I design rainfall is increased by 20%, Target II increased by 33%, and Target III increased by 74% compared with the reference period(1970-2010). When considering the impact of climate change, 3 of 9 pumping stations are expected to have no difficulty in the future rainfall. But, the capacities of 6 pumping stations will not be sufficient for the future rainfall and runoff. Therefore, it is expected to construct more pumping stations allowable 6 times of existing pump capacity especially for Target III(2071-2100). ACKNOWLEDGMENT This research was supported by a grant 'The development of disaster risk assessment technique for flood prevention facilities considering the multi risk factors' [NEMA-NH-2010-33] from the Natural Hazard Mitigation Research Group, National Emergency Management Agency of Korea.

A radar-based regional extreme rainfall analysis to derive the thresholds for a novel automatic alert system in Switzerland

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Panziera, Luca; Gabella, Marco; Zanini, Stefano; Hering, Alessandro; Germann, Urs; Berne, Alexis

2016-06-01

This paper presents a regional extreme rainfall analysis based on 10 years of radar data for the 159 regions adopted for official natural hazard warnings in Switzerland. Moreover, a nowcasting tool aimed at issuing heavy precipitation regional alerts is introduced. The two topics are closely related, since the extreme rainfall analysis provides the thresholds used by the nowcasting system for the alerts. Warm and cold seasons' monthly maxima of several statistical quantities describing regional rainfall are fitted to a generalized extreme value distribution in order to derive the precipitation amounts corresponding to sub-annual return periods for durations of 1, 3, 6, 12, 24 and 48 h. It is shown that regional return levels exhibit a large spatial variability in Switzerland, and that their spatial distribution strongly depends on the duration of the aggregation period: for accumulations of 3 h and shorter, the largest return levels are found over the northerly alpine slopes, whereas for longer durations the southern Alps exhibit the largest values. The inner alpine chain shows the lowest values, in agreement with previous rainfall climatologies. The nowcasting system presented here is aimed to issue heavy rainfall alerts for a large variety of end users, who are interested in different precipitation characteristics and regions, such as, for example, small urban areas, remote alpine catchments or administrative districts. The alerts are issued not only if the rainfall measured in the immediate past or forecast in the near future exceeds some predefined thresholds but also as soon as the sum of past and forecast precipitation is larger than threshold values. This precipitation total, in fact, has primary importance in applications for which antecedent rainfall is as important as predicted one, such as urban floods early warning systems. The rainfall fields, the statistical quantity representing regional rainfall and the frequency of alerts issued in case of continuous threshold exceedance are some of the configurable parameters of the tool. The analysis of the urban flood which occurred in the city of Schaffhausen in May 2013 suggests that this alert tool might have complementary skill with respect to radar-based thunderstorm nowcasting systems for storms which do not show a clear convective signature.

Predicting of soil erosion with regarding to rainfall erosivity and soil erodibility

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Suif, Zuliziana; Razak, Mohd Amirun Anis Ab; Ahmad, Nordila

2018-02-01

The soil along the hill and slope are wearing away due to erosion and it can take place due to occurrence of weak and heavy rainfall. The aim of this study is to predict the soil erosion degree in Universiti Pertahanan Nasional Malaysia (UPNM) area focused on two major factor which is soil erodibility and rainfall erosivity. Soil erodibility is the possibilities of soil to detach and carried away during rainfall and runoff. The "ROM" scale was used in this study to determine the degree of soil erodibility, namely low, moderate, high, and very high. As for rainfall erosivity, the erosive power caused by rainfall that cause soil loss. A daily rainfall data collected from January to April was analyzed by using ROSE index classification to identify the potential risk of soil erosion. The result shows that the soil erodibilty are moderate at MTD`s hill, high at behind of block Lestari and Landslide MTD hill, and critical at behind the mess cadet. While, the highest rainfall erosivity was recorded in March and April. Overall, this study would benefit the organization greatly in saving cost in landslide protection as relevant authorities can take early measures repairing the most affected area of soil erosion.

Floods of June 2012 in northeastern Minnesota

USGS Publications Warehouse

Czuba, Christiana R.; Fallon, James D.; Kessler, Erich W.

2012-01-01

During June 19–20, 2012, heavy rainfall, as much as 10 inches locally reported, caused severe flooding across northeastern Minnesota. The floods were exacerbated by wet antecedent conditions from a relatively rainy spring, with May 2012 as one of the wettest Mays on record in Duluth. The June 19–20, 2012, rainfall event set new records in Duluth, including greatest 2-day precipitation with 7.25 inches of rain. The heavy rains fell on three major watersheds: the Mississippi Headwaters; the St. Croix, which drains to the Mississippi River; and Western Lake Superior, which includes the St. Louis River and other tributaries to Lake Superior. Widespread flash and river flooding that resulted from the heavy rainfall caused evacuations of residents, and damages to residences, businesses, and infrastructure. In all, nine counties in northeastern Minnesota were declared Federal disaster areas as a result of the flooding. Peak-of-record streamflows were recorded at 13 U.S. Geological Survey streamgages as a result of the heavy rainfall. Flood-peak gage heights, peak streamflows, and annual exceedance probabilities were tabulated for 35 U.S. Geological Survey streamgages. Flood-peak streamflows in June 2012 had annual exceedance probabilities estimated to be less than 0.002 (0.2 percent; recurrence interval greater than 500 years) for five streamgages, and between 0.002 and 0.01 (1 percent; recurrence interval greater than 100 years) for four streamgages. High-water marks were identified and tabulated for the most severely affected communities of Barnum (Moose Horn River), Carlton (Otter Creek), Duluth Heights neighborhood of Duluth (Miller Creek), Fond du Lac neighborhood of Duluth (St. Louis River), Moose Lake (Moose Horn River and Moosehead Lake), and Thomson (Thomson Reservoir outflow near the St. Louis River). Flood-peak inundation maps and water-surface profiles were produced for these six severely affected communities. The inundation maps were constructed in a geographic information system by combining high-water-mark data with high-resolution digital elevation model data. The flood maps and profiles show the extent and depth of flooding through the communities and can be used for flood response and recovery efforts by local, county, State, and Federal agencies.

Effects of extreme rainfall events on the distribution of selected emerging contaminants in surface and groundwater: The Guadalete River basin (SW, Spain).

PubMed

Corada-Fernández, Carmen; Candela, Lucila; Torres-Fuentes, Nivis; Pintado-Herrera, Marina G; Paniw, Maria; González-Mazo, Eduardo

2017-12-15

This study is focused on the Guadalete River basin (SW, Spain), where extreme weather conditions have become common, with and alternation between periods of drought and extreme rainfall events. Combined sewer overflows (CSOs) occur when heavy rainfall events exceed the capacity of the wastewater treatment plants (WWTP), as well as pollution episodes in parts of the basin due to uncontrolled sewage spills and the use of reclaimed water and sludge from the local WWTP. The sampling was carried out along two seasons and three campaigns during dry (March 2007) and extreme rainfall (April and December 2010) in the Guadalete River, alluvial aquifer and Jerez de la Frontera aquifer. Results showed minimum concentrations for synthetic surfactants in groundwater (<37.4μg·L -1 ) during the first campaign (dry weather conditions), whereas groundwater contaminants increased in December 2010 as the heavy rainfall caused the river to overflow. In surface water, surfactant concentrations showed similar trends to groundwater observations. In addition to surfactants, pharmaceuticals and personal care products (PPCPs) were analyzed in the third campaign, 22 of which were detected in surface waters. Two fragrances (OTNE and galaxolide) and one analgesic/anti-inflammatory (ibuprofen) were the most abundant PPCPs (up to 6540, 2748 and 1747ng·L -1 , respectively). Regarding groundwater, most PPCPs were detected in Jerez de la Frontera aquifer, where a synthetic fragrance (OTNE) was predominant (up to 1285ng·L -1 ). Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Analysis and simulation of mesoscale convective systems accompanying heavy rainfall: The goyang case

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Choi, Hyun-Young; Ha, Ji-Hyun; Lee, Dong-Kyou; Kuo, Ying-Hwa

2011-05-01

We investigated a torrential rainfall case with a daily rainfall amount of 379 mm and a maximum hourly rain rate of 77.5 mm that took place on 12 July 2006 at Goyang in the middlewestern part of the Korean Peninsula. The heavy rainfall was responsible for flash flooding and was highly localized. High-resolution Doppler radar data from 5 radar sites located over central Korea were analyzed. Numerical simulations using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model were also performed to complement the high-resolution observations and to further investigate the thermodynamic structure and development of the convective system. The grid nudging method using the Global Final (FNL) Analyses data was applied to the coarse model domain (30 km) in order to provide a more realistic and desirable initial and boundary conditions for the nested model domains (10 km, 3.3 km). The mesoscale convective system (MCS) which caused flash flooding was initiated by the strong low level jet (LLJ) at the frontal region of high equivalent potential temperature (θe) near the west coast over the Yellow Sea. The ascending of the warm and moist air was induced dynamically by the LLJ. The convective cells were triggered by small thermal perturbations and abruptly developed by the warm θe inflow. Within the MCS, several convective cells responsible for the rainfall peak at Goyang simultaneously developed with neighboring cells and interacted with each other. Moist absolutely unstable layers (MAULs) were seen at the lower troposphere with the very moist environment adding the instability for the development of the MCS.

On the dynamics of an extreme rainfall event in northern India in 2013

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Xavier, Anu; Manoj, M. G.; Mohankumar, K.

2018-03-01

India experienced a heavy rainfall event in the year 2013 over Uttarakhand and its adjoining areas, which was exceptional as it witnessed the fastest monsoon progression. This study aims to explore the causative factors of this heavy rainfall event leading to flood and landslides which claimed huge loss of lives and property. The catastrophic event occurred from 14th to 17th June, 2013 during which the state received 375% more rainfall than the highest rainfall recorded during a normal monsoon season. Using the high resolution precipitation data and complementary parameters, we found that the mid-latitude westerlies shifted southward from its normal position during the intense flooding event. The southward extension of subtropical jet (STJ) over the northern part of India was observed only during the event days and its intensity was found to be increasing from 14th to 16th June. The classical theory of westward tilt of mid-latitude trough with height, which acts to intensify the system through the transfer of potential energy of the mean flow, is evident from analysis of relative vorticity at multiple pressure levels. On analysing the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), negative values were observed during the event days. Thus, the decrease in pressure gradient resulted in decrease of the intensity of westerlies which caused the cold air to move southward. During the event, as the cold air moved south, it pushed the mid-latitude westerlies south of its normal position during summer monsoon and created a conducive atmosphere for the intensification of the system.

[Response Mechanism of Trace Metals in the Bishuiyan Subterranean River to the Rainfall and Their Source Analysis].

PubMed

Zou, Yan-e; Jiang, Ping-ping; Zhang, Qiang; Tang, Qing-jia; Kang, Zhi-qiang; Gong, Xiao- ping; Chen, Chang-jie; Yu, Jian-guo

2015-12-01

High-frequency sampling was conducted at the outlet of Guangxi Bishuiyan karst subterranean river using an automatic sampler during the rainfall events. The hydrochemical drymanic variation characteristics of trace metals (Cu, Pb, Zn, Cd) at the outlet of Guangxi Bishuiyan karst subterranean river were analyzed, and the sources of the trace metals in the subterranean river as well as their response to rainfall were explored. The results showed that the rainfall provoked a sharp decrease in the major elements (Ca²⁺, Mg²⁺, HCO₃⁻, etc.) due to dilution and precipitation, while it also caused an increase in the concentrations of dissolved metals including Al, Mn, Cu, Zn and Cd, due to water-rock reaction, sediment remobilization, and soil erosion. The water-rock reaction was more sensitive to rainfall than the others, while the sediment remobilization and soil erosion took the main responsibility for the chemical change of the heavy metals. The curves of the heavy metal concentrations presented multiple peaks, of which the maximum was reached at 9 hours later after the largest precipitation. Different metal sources and the double-inlet structure of the subterranean river were supposed to be the reasons for the formation of multiple peaks. During the monitoring period, the average speed of the solute in the river reached about 0.47 km · h⁻¹, indicating fast migration of the pollutants. Therefore, monitoring the chemical dynamics of the karst subterranean river, mastering the sources and migration characteristics of trace metal components have great significance for the subterranean river environment pollution treatment.

Heavy thunderstorms observed over land by the Nimbus 7 scanning multichannel microwave radiometer

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Spencer, R. W.; Olson, W. S.; Martin, D. W.; Weinman, J. A.; Santek, D. A.; Wu, R.

1983-01-01

Brightness temperatures obtained through examination of microwave data from the Nimbus 7 satellite are noted to be much lower than those expected on the strength of radiation emanating from rain-producing clouds. Very cold brightness temperature cases all coincided with heavy thunderstorm rainfall, with the cold temperatures being attributable to scattering by a layer of ice hydrometeors in the upper parts of the storms. It is accordingly suggested that brightness temperatures observed by satellite microwave radiometers can sometimes distinguish heavy rain over land.

Intra-seasonal rainfall characteristics and their importance to the seasonal prediction problem

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tennant, Warren J.; Hewitson, Bruce C.

2002-07-01

Daily station rainfall data in South Africa from 1936 to 1999 are combined into homogeneous rainfall regions using Ward's clustering method. Various rainfall characteristics are calculated for the summer season, defined as December to February. These include seasonal rainfall total, region-average number of station rain days exceeding 1 and 20 mm, region-average of periods between rain days at stations >1 and >20 mm, region-average of wet spell length (sequential days of station rainfall >1 and >20 mm), correlation of daily station rainfall within a region and correlation of seasonal station rainfall anomalies within a region.Rank-ordered rainfall characteristic data generally form an s-shaped curve, and significance testing of discontinuities in these curves suggests that normal rainfall conditions in South Africa consist of a combined middle three quintiles separated from the outer quintiles, rather than the traditional middle tercile.The relationships between the various rainfall characteristics show that seasons with a high total rainfall generally have a higher number of heavy rain days (>20 mm) and not necessarily an increase in light rain days. The length of the period between rain days has a low correlation to season totals, demonstrating that seasons with a high total rainfall may still contain prolonged dry periods. These additional rainfall characteristics are important to end-users, and the analysis undertaken here offers a valuable starting point for seeking physical relationships between rainfall characteristics and the general circulation. Preliminary studies show that the vertical mean wind is related to rainfall characteristics in South Africa. Given that general circulation models capture this part of the circulation adequately, seasonal forecasts of rainfall characteristics become plausible.

Decadal features of heavy rainfall events in eastern China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chen, Huopo; Sun, Jianqi; Fan, Ke

2012-06-01

Based on daily precipitation data, the spatial-temporal features of heavy rainfall events (HREs) during 1960-2009 are investigated. The results indicate that the HREs experienced strong decadal variability in the past 50 years, and the decadal features varied across regions. More HRE days are observed in the 1960s, 1980s, and 1990s over Northeast China (NEC); in the 1960s, 1970s, and 1990s over North China (NC); in the early 1960s, 1980s, and 2000s over the Huaihe River basin (HR); in the 1970s-1990s over the mid-lower reaches of the Yangtze River valley (YR); and in the 1970s and 1990s over South China (SC). These decadal changes of HRE days in eastern China are closely associated with the decadal variations of water content and stratification stability of the local atmosphere. The intensity of HREs in each sub-region is also characterized by strong decadal variability. The HRE intensity and frequency co-vary on the long-term trend, and show consistent variability over NEC, NC, and YR, but inconsistent variability over SC and HR. Further analysis of the relationships between the annual rainfall and HRE frequency as well as intensity indicates that the HRE frequency is the major contributor to the total rainfall variability in eastern China, while the HRE intensity shows only relative weak contribution.

Air contaminants and litter fall decomposition in urban forest areas: The case of São Paulo - SP, Brazil.

PubMed

Lamano Ferreira, Maurício; Portella Ribeiro, Andreza; Rodrigues Albuquerque, Caroline; Ferreira, Ana Paula do Nascimento Lamano; Figueira, Rubens César Lopes; Lafortezza, Raffaele

2017-05-01

Urban forests are usually affected by several types of atmospheric contaminants and by abnormal variations in weather conditions, thus facilitating the biotic homogenization and modification of ecosystem processes, such as nutrient cycling. Peri-urban forests and even natural forests that surround metropolitan areas are also subject to anthropogenic effects generated by cities, which may compromise the dynamics of these ecosystems. Hence, this study advances the hypothesis that the forests located at the margins of the Metropolitan Region of São Paulo (MRSP), Brazil, have high concentrations of atmospheric contaminants leading to adverse effects on litter fall stock. The production, stock and decomposition of litter fall in two forests were quantified. The first, known as Guarapiranga forest, lies closer to the urban area and is located within the MRSP, approximately 20km from the city center. The second, Curucutu forest, is located 70km from the urban center. This forest is situated exactly on the border of the largest continuum of vegetation of the Atlantic Forest. To verify the reach of atmospheric pollutants from the urban area, levels of heavy metals (Cd, Pb, Ni, Cu) adsorbed on the litter fall deposited on the soil surface of the forests were also quantified. The stock of litter fall and the levels of heavy metals were generally higher in the Guarapiranga forest in the samples collected during the lower rainfall season (dry season). Non-metric multidimensional scaling multivariate analysis showed a clear distinction of the sample units related to the concentrations of heavy metals in each forest. A subtle difference between the units related to the dry and rainy seasons in the Curucutu forest was also noted. Multivariate Analysis of Variance revealed that both site and season of the year (dry or rainy) were important to differentiate the quantity of heavy metals in litter fall stock, although the analysis did not show the interaction between these two factors. Precipitation appeared to be an important factor to disperse air pollutants; one method to better regulate this process is the development and integration of green infrastructure at city level, which might contribute to nature-based solutions. Results suggest that although the Curucutu forest is not very far from the MRSP, which could result in heavy metal levels similar to those observed in the Guarapiranga forest, the weather conditions, geographic location and rainfall rates might act as efficient physical barriers against the dispersion of pollutants in the urban area. However, it is important to highlight that in the period studied (2012-2013), MRSP presented unusual features during the winter period marked by the highest levels of precipitation which was due to several numbers of frontal systems and also due to their permanence for a couple days in the region. Thus, it is recommended to continue this study in order to obtain a database for characterizing the seasonal variation of air pollution levels in the litter fall and their adverse effects on ecosystem processes in these remnants of the Atlantic Forest. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

New perspectives for "non-classical" molecules: heavy [1.1.1]propellanes of group 14.

PubMed

Nied, Dominik; Breher, Frank

2011-07-01

Heavy analogues of hydrocarbons intrigue chemists for a number of reasons, not least because they are often fundamentally different from their carbon counterparts and have remained a challenge for both experimentalists and theoreticians for a long time. The appealing properties of [1.1.1]propellanes of group 14 consisting of inverted tetrahedral bridgehead atoms can mainly be attributed to the particular bonding between the latter. More than 20 years after the first member of this family has been published, several contributions to this area have impressively extended the spectrum of these so-called main-group biradicaloids. Still in its infancy, further perspectives for these "non-classical" molecules are now arising. In this tutorial review, early findings and recent developments in this area are presented. Particular attention is drawn on the relationship of unusual structures and unusual reactivities of main-group element compounds in general and in particular of heavy propellane scaffolds of group 14.

Rain rate intensity model for communication link design across the Indian region

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kilaru, Aravind; Kotamraju, Sarat K.; Avlonitis, Nicholas; Sri Kavya, K. Ch.

2016-07-01

A study on rain statistical parameters such as one minute rain intensity, possible number of minute occurrences with respective percentage of time in a year has been evaluated for the purpose of communication link design at Ka, Q, V bands as well as at Free-Space Optical communication links (FSO). To understand possible outage period of a communication links due to rainfall and to investigate rainfall pattern, Automatic Weather Station (AWS) rainfall data is analysed due its ample presence across India. The climates of the examined AWS regions vary from desert to cold climate, heavy rainfall to variable rainfall regions, cyclone effective regions, mountain and coastal regions. In this way a complete and unbiased picture of the rainfall statistics for Indian region is evaluated. The analysed AWS data gives insight into yearly accumulated rainfall, maximum hourly accumulated rainfall, mean hourly accumulated rainfall, number of rainy days and number of rainy hours from 668 AWS locations. Using probability density function the one minute rainfall measurements at KL University is integrated with AWS measurements for estimating number of rain occurrences in terms of one minute rain intensity for annual rainfall accumulated between 100 mm and 5000 mm to give an insight into possible one minute accumulation pattern in an hour for comprehensive analysis of rainfall influence on a communication link for design engineers. So that low availability communications links at higher frequencies can be transformed into a reliable and economically feasible communication links for implementing High Throughput Services (HTS).

Observations of Heavy Rainfall in a Post Wildland Fire Area Using X-Band Polarimetric Radar

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cifelli, R.; Matrosov, S. Y.; Gochis, D. J.; Kennedy, P.; Moody, J. A.

2011-12-01

Polarimetric X-band radar systems have been used increasingly over the last decade for rainfall measurements. Since X-band radar systems are generally less costly, more mobile, and have narrower beam widths (for same antenna sizes) than those operating at lower frequencies (e.g., C and S-bands), they can be used for the "gap-filling" purposes for the areas when high resolution rainfall measurements are needed and existing operational radars systems lack adequate coverage and/or resolution for accurate quantitative precipitation estimation (QPE). The main drawback of X-band systems is attenuation of radar signals, which is significantly stronger compared to frequencies used by "traditional" precipitation radars operating at lower frequencies. The use of different correction schemes based on polarimetric data can, to a certain degree, overcome this drawback when attenuation does not cause total signal extinction. This presentation will focus on examining the use of high-resolution data from the NOAA Earth System Research Laboratory (ESRL) mobile X-band dual polarimetric radar for the purpose of estimating precipitation in a post-wildland fire area. The NOAA radar was deployed in the summer of 2011 to examine the impact of gap-fill radar on QPE and the resulting hydrologic response during heavy rain events in the Colorado Front Range in collaboration with colleagues from the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR), Colorado State University (CSU), and the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS). A network of rain gauges installed by NCAR, the Denver Urban Drainage Flood Control District (UDFCD), and the USGS are used to compare with the radar estimates. Supplemental data from NEXRAD and the CSU-CHILL dual polarimetric radar are also used to compare with the NOAA X-band and rain gauges. It will be shown that rainfall rates and accumulations estimated from specific differential phase measurements (KDP) at X-band are in good agreement with the measurements from the gauge network during heavy rain and rain/hail mixture events. The X-band radar measurements also were generally successful in capturing the high spatial variability in convective rainfall, which caused post-fire debris flows.

Desert Dust and Monsoon Rain

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lau, William K. M.; Kim, Kyu-Myong

2014-01-01

For centuries, inhabitants of the Indian subcontinent have know that heavy dust events brought on by strong winds occur frequently in the pre-monsoon season, before the onset of heavy rain. Yet scientists have never seriously considered the possibility that natural dust can affect monsoon rainfall. Up to now, most studies of the impacts of aerosols on Indian monsoon rainfall have focused on anthropogenic aerosols in the context of climate change. However, a few recent studies have show that aerosols from antropogenic and natural sources over the Indian subcontinent may affect the transition from break to active monsoon phases on short timescales of days to weeks. Writing in Nature Geoscience, Vinoj and colleagues describe how they have shown that desert dust aerosols over the Arabian Sea and West Asia can strenghten the summer monsoon over the Indial subcontinent in a matter of days.

Aroma types of flue-cured tobacco in China: spatial distribution and association with climatic factors

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yang, Chao; Wu, Wei; Wu, Shu-Cheng; Liu, Hong-Bin; Peng, Qing

2014-02-01

Aroma types of flue-cured tobacco (FCT) are classified into light, medium, and heavy in China. However, the spatial distribution of FCT aroma types and the relationships among aroma types, chemical parameters, and climatic variables were still unknown at national scale. In the current study, multi-year averaged chemical parameters (total sugars, reducing sugars, nicotine, total nitrogen, chloride, and K2O) of FCT samples with grade of C3F and climatic variables (mean, minimum and maximum temperatures, rainfall, relative humidity, and sunshine hours) during the growth periods were collected from main planting areas across China. Significant relationships were found between chemical parameters and climatic variables ( p < 0.05). A spatial distribution map of FCT aroma types were produced using support vector machine algorithms and chemical parameters. Significant differences in chemical parameters and climatic variables were observed among the three aroma types based on one-way analysis of variance ( p < 0.05). Areas with light aroma type had significantly lower values of mean, maximum, and minimum temperatures than regions with medium and heavy aroma types ( p < 0.05). Areas with heavy aroma type had significantly lower values of rainfall and relative humidity and higher values of sunshine hours than regions with light and medium aroma types ( p < 0.05). The output produced by classification and regression trees showed that sunshine hours, rainfall, and maximum temperature were the most important factors affecting FCT aroma types at national scale.

Simulation of Sediment and Cesium Transport in the Ukedo River and the Ogi Dam Reservoir during a Rainfall Event using the TODAM Code

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Onishi, Yasuo; Yokuda, Satoru T.; Kurikami, Hiroshi

2014-03-28

The accident at the Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Plant in March 2011 caused widespread environmental contamination. Although decontamination activities have been performed in residential areas of the Fukushima area, decontamination of forests, rivers, and reservoirs is still controversial because of the economical, ecological, and technical difficulties. Thus, an evaluation of contaminant transport in such an environment is important for safety assessment and for implementation of possible countermeasures to reduce radiation exposure to the public. The investigation revealed that heavy rainfall events play a significant role in transporting radioactive cesium deposited on the land surface, via soil erosion and sediment transportmore » in rivers. Therefore, we simulated the sediment and cesium transport in the Ukedo River and its tributaries in Fukushima Prefecture, including the Ogaki Dam Reservoir, and the Ogi Dam Reservoir of the Oginosawa River in Fukushima Prefecture during and after a heavy rainfall event by using the TODAM (Time-dependent, One-dimensional Degradation And Migration) code. The main outcomes are the following: • Suspended sand is mostly deposited on the river bottom. Suspended silt and clay, on the other hand, are hardly deposited in the Ukedo River and its tributaries except in the Ogaki Dam Reservoir in the Ukedo River even in low river discharge conditions. • Cesium migrates mainly during high river discharge periods during heavy rainfall events. Silt and clay play more important roles in cesium transport to the sea than sand does. • The simulation results explain variations in the field data on cesium distributions in the river. Additional field data currently being collected and further modeling with these data may shed more light on the cesium distribution variations. • Effects of 40-hour heavy rainfall events on clay and cesium transport continue for more than a month. This is because these reservoirs slow down the storm-induced high flow moving through these reservoirs. • The reservoirs play a major role as a sink of sediment and cesium in the river systems. Some amounts of sediment pass through them along with cesium in dissolved and clay-sorbed cesium forms. • Effects of countermeasures such as overland decontamination, dam control and sorbent injection were tentatively estimated. The simulation suggested that overland decontamination and sorbent injection would be effective for decreasing the contamination of water in the reservoir and in the river below the dam.« less

Predicting Flood in Perlis Using Ant Colony Optimization

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nadia Sabri, Syaidatul; Saian, Rizauddin

2017-06-01

Flood forecasting is widely being studied in order to reduce the effect of flood such as loss of property, loss of life and contamination of water supply. Usually flood occurs due to continuous heavy rainfall. This study used a variant of Ant Colony Optimization (ACO) algorithm named the Ant-Miner to develop the classification prediction model to predict flood. However, since Ant-Miner only accept discrete data, while rainfall data is a time series data, a pre-processing steps is needed to discretize the rainfall data initially. This study used a technique called the Symbolic Aggregate Approximation (SAX) to convert the rainfall time series data into discrete data. As an addition, Simple K-Means algorithm was used to cluster the data produced by SAX. The findings show that the predictive accuracy of the classification prediction model is more than 80%.

Space based observations: A state of the art solution for spatial monitoring tropical forested watershed productivity at regional scale in developing countries

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mahmud, M. R.

2014-02-01

This paper presents the simplified and operational approach of mapping the water yield in tropical watershed using space-based multi sensor remote sensing data. Two main critical hydrological rainfall variables namely rainfall and evapotranspiration are being estimated by satellite measurement and reinforce the famous Thornthwaite & Mather water balance model. The satellite rainfall and ET estimates were able to represent the actual value on the ground with accuracy under considerable conditions. The satellite derived water yield had good agreement and relation with actual streamflow. A high bias measurement may result due to; i) influence of satellite rainfall estimates during heavy storm, and ii) large uncertainties and standard deviation of MODIS temperature data product. The output of this study managed to improve the regional scale of hydrology assessment in Peninsular Malaysia.

Environmental Factors Affecting Efficacy of Bifenthrin-Treated Vegetation for Mosquito Control

DTIC Science & Technology

2009-01-01

and Surgeoner 1983, Ander- son et al. 1991, Perich et al. 1993, Cilek and Hallmon 2006), lambda cyhalothrin (Trout et al. 2007, Cilek and Hallmon 2008...insecticide treatment. Leaves were sampled 1–2 days before treatment, on the day of treatment, and at weeks 1, 2, 4, 6, and 7. All plants were watered ...were divided into 2 groups: those with no rainfall and those with heavy rainfall characteris- tic for June–September in north central Florida. Water

Convective Mode and Mesoscale Heavy Rainfall Forecast Challenges during a High-Impact Weather Period along the Gulf Coast and Florida from 17-20 May 2016

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bosart, L. F.; Wallace, B. C.

2017-12-01

Two high-impact convective storm forecast challenges occurred between 17-20 May 2016 during NOAA's Hazardous Weather Testbed Spring Forecast Experiment (SFE) at the Storm Prediction Center. The first forecast challenge was 286 mm of unexpected record-breaking rain that fell on Vero Beach (VRB), Florida, between 1500 UTC 17 May and 0600 UTC 18 May, more than doubling the previous May daily rainfall record. The record rains in VRB occurred subsequent to the formation of a massive MCS over the central Gulf of Mexico between 0900-1000 UTC 17 May. This MCS, linked to the earlier convection associated with an anomalously strong subtropical jet (STJ) over the Gulf of Mexico, moved east-northeastward toward Florida. The second forecast challenge was a large MCS that formed over the Mexican mountains near the Texas-Mexican border, moved eastward and grew upscale prior to 1200 UTC 19 May. This MCS further strengthened offshore after 1800 UTC 19 May beneath the STJ. SPC SFE participants expected this MCS to move east-northeastward and bring heavy rain due to training echoes along the Gulf coast as far eastward as the Florida panhandle. Instead, this MCS transitioned into a bowing MCS that resembled a low-end derecho and produced a 4-6 hPa cold pool with widespread surface wind gusts between 35-50 kt. Both MCS events occurred in a large-scale baroclinic environment along the northern Gulf coast. Both MCS events responded to antecedent convection within this favorable large-scale environment. Rainfall amounts with the first heavy rain-producing MCS were severely underestimated by models and forecasters alike. The second MCS produced the greatest forecaster angst because rainfall totals were forecast too high (MCS propagated too fast) and severe wind reports were much more widespread than anticipated (because of cold pool formation). This presentation will attempt to untangle what happened and why it happened.

Floods of September 2010 in Southern Minnesota

USGS Publications Warehouse

Ellison, Christopher A.; Sanocki, Chris A.; Lorenz, David L.; Mitton, Gregory B.; Kruse, Gregory A.

2011-01-01

During September 22-24, 2010, heavy rainfall ranging from 3 inches to more than 10 inches caused severe flooding across southern Minnesota. The floods were exacerbated by wet antecedent conditions, where summer rainfall totals were as high as 20 inches, exceeding the historical average by more than 4 inches. Widespread flooding that occurred as a result of the heavy rainfall caused evacuations of hundreds of residents, and damages in excess of 64 million dollars to residences, businesses, and infrastructure. In all, 21 counties in southern Minnesota were declared Federal disaster areas. Peak-of-record streamflows were recorded at nine U.S. Geological Survey and three Minnesota Department of Natural Resources streamgages as a result of the heavy rainfall. Flood-peak gage heights, peak streamflows, and annual exceedance probabilities were tabulated for 27 U.S. Geological Survey and 5 Minnesota Department of Natural Resources streamgages and 5 ungaged sites. Flood-peak streamflows in 2010 had annual exceedance probabilities estimated to be less than 0.2 percent (recurrence interval greater than 500 years) at 7 streamgages and less than 1 percent (recurrence interval greater than 100 years) at 5 streamgages and 4 ungaged sites. High-water marks were identified and tabulated for the most severely affected communities of Faribault along the Cannon and Straight Rivers, Owatonna along the Straight River and Maple Creek, Pine Island along the North Branch and Middle Fork Zumbro River, and Zumbro Falls along the Zumbro River. The nearby communities of Hammond, Henderson, Millville, Oronoco, Pipestone, and Rapidan also received extensive flooding and damage but were not surveyed for high-water marks. Flood-peak inundation maps and water-surface profiles for the four most severely affected communities were constructed in a geographic information system by combining high-water-mark data with the highest resolution digital elevation model data available. The flood maps and profiles show the extent and height of flooding through the communities and can be used for flood response and recovery efforts by local, county, State, and Federal agencies.

Extreme Precipitation and Emergency Room Visits for Gastrointestinal Illness in Areas with and without Combined Sewer Systems: An Analysis of Massachusetts Data, 2003-2007.

PubMed

Jagai, Jyotsna S; Li, Quanlin; Wang, Shiliang; Messier, Kyle P; Wade, Timothy J; Hilborn, Elizabeth D

2015-09-01

Combined sewer overflows (CSOs) occur in combined sewer systems when sewage and stormwater runoff are released into water bodies, potentially contaminating water sources. CSOs are often caused by heavy precipitation and are expected to increase with increasing extreme precipitation associated with climate change. The aim of this study was to assess whether the association between heavy rainfall and rate of emergency room (ER) visits for gastrointestinal (GI) illness differed in the presence of CSOs. For the study period 2003-2007, time series of daily rate of ER visits for GI illness and meteorological data were organized for three exposure regions: a) CSOs impacting drinking water sources, b) CSOs impacting recreational waters, c) no CSOs. A distributed lag Poisson regression assessed cumulative effects for an 8-day lag period following heavy (≥ 90th and ≥ 95th percentile) and extreme (≥ 99th percentile) precipitation events, controlling for temperature and long-term time trends. The association between extreme rainfall and rate of ER visits for GI illness differed among regions. Only the region with drinking water exposed to CSOs demonstrated a significant increased cumulative risk for rate (CRR) of ER visits for GI for all ages in the 8-day period following extreme rainfall: CRR: 1.13 (95% CI: 1.00, 1.28) compared with no rainfall. The rate of ER visits for GI illness was associated with extreme precipitation in the area with CSO discharges to a drinking water source. Our findings suggest an increased risk for GI illness among consumers whose drinking water source may be impacted by CSOs after extreme precipitation. Jagai JS, Li Q, Wang S, Messier KP, Wade TJ, Hilborn ED. 2015. Extreme precipitation and emergency room visits for gastrointestinal illness in areas with and without combined sewer systems: an analysis of Massachusetts data, 2003-2007. Environ Health Perspect 123:873-879; http://dx.doi.org/10.1289/ehp.1408971.

Interpolating precipitation and its relation to runoff and non-point source pollution.

PubMed

Chang, Chia-Ling; Lo, Shang-Lien; Yu, Shaw-L

2005-01-01

When rainfall spatially varies, complete rainfall data for each region with different rainfall characteristics are very important. Numerous interpolation methods have been developed for estimating unknown spatial characteristics. However, no interpolation method is suitable for all circumstances. In this study, several methods, including the arithmetic average method, the Thiessen Polygons method, the traditional inverse distance method, and the modified inverse distance method, were used to interpolate precipitation. The modified inverse distance method considers not only horizontal distances but also differences between the elevations of the region with no rainfall records and of its surrounding rainfall stations. The results show that when the spatial variation of rainfall is strong, choosing a suitable interpolation method is very important. If the rainfall is uniform, the precipitation estimated using any interpolation method would be quite close to the actual precipitation. When rainfall is heavy in locations with high elevation, the rainfall changes with the elevation. In this situation, the modified inverse distance method is much more effective than any other method discussed herein for estimating the rainfall input for WinVAST to estimate runoff and non-point source pollution (NPSP). When the spatial variation of rainfall is random, regardless of the interpolation method used to yield rainfall input, the estimation errors of runoff and NPSP are large. Moreover, the relationship between the relative error of the predicted runoff and predicted pollutant loading of SS is high. However, the pollutant concentration is affected by both runoff and pollutant export, so the relationship between the relative error of the predicted runoff and the predicted pollutant concentration of SS may be unstable.

Torrential Rain in China

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

2007-01-01

Concentric ovals of red, orange, yellow, and green are draped over southern China, showing rainfall totals for the week of June 4 through June 11, 2007. The rainfall totals are from the Goddard Space Flight Center Multi-satellite Precipitation Analysis, which is based on rainfall measurements taken by the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) satellite. Though seasonal rains are not unexpected in the area, the rain that fell during the week was torrential and relentless. As the image shows, a broad stretch of China received up to 200 millimeters (8 inches) of rain, and some areas were inundated with up to 500 millimeters (20 inches). Floods and landslides resulted, destroying crops and forcing some 643,000 people from their homes, reported the Xinhua News Agency on ReliefWeb. As of June 11, 71 people had died and 13 were missing. The most affected area was the southern coast, where rainfall totals are highest in this image. Heavy tropical rains combined with steep mountains make southeastern China prone to devastating landslides. Monitoring landslide-producing conditions typically requires extensive networks of ground-based rain gauges and weather instruments. But many developing countries in high-risk areas lack the resources to maintain such systems; heavy rains and flooding often wash away ground-based instruments. Robert Adler, a senior scientist in the Laboratory for Atmospheres at Goddard Space Flight Center, and Yang Hong, a research scientist at Goddard Earth Sciences Technology Center, are confronting the problem by developing a satellite-based system for predicting landslides. The system relies on TRMM data to predict when rainfall in different areas has reached a landslide-triggering threshold. The system makes data available on the Internet just a few hours after the satellite makes its observations. To read more about the landslide-monitoring system, please read the feature article Satellite Monitors Rains That Trigger Landslides, http://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/Study/LandslideWarning/. TRMM is a joint mission between NASA and the Japanese space agency, JAXA. NASA images produced by Hal Pierce (SSAI/NASA GSFC).

Brazil: Rio Branco

Atmospheric Science Data Center

2013-04-18

... is a center for the distribution of goods, including rubber, metals, medicinal plants, Brazil nuts and timber. Colonization projects in the ... terrain is of a poorly-draining clay hardpan soil, and heavy rainfall periodically converts parts of the forested region to swamp. ...

Orographic precipitation and vertical velocity characteristics from drop size and fall velocity spectra observed by disdrometers

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lee, Dong-In; Kim, Dong-Kyun; Kim, Ji-Hyeon; Kang, Yunhee; Kim, Hyeonjoon

2017-04-01

During a summer monsoon season each year, severe weather phenomena caused by front, mesoscale convective systems, or typhoons often occur in the southern Korean Peninsula where is mostly comprised of complex high mountains. These areas play an important role in controlling formation, amount, and distribution of rainfall. As precipitation systems move over the mountains, they can develop rapidly and produce localized heavy rainfall. Thus observational analysis in the mountainous areas is required for studying terrain effects on the rapid rainfall development and its microphysics. We performed intensive field observations using two s-band operational weather radars around Mt. Jiri (1950 m ASL) during summertime on June and July in 2015-2016. Observation data of DSD (Drop Size Distribution) from Parsivel disdrometer and (w component) vertical velocity data from ultrasonic anemometers were analyzed for Typhoon Chanhom on 12 July 2015 and the heavy rain event on 1 July 2016. During the heavy rain event, a dual-Doppler radar analysis using Jindo radar and Gunsan radar was also conducted to examine 3-D wind fields and vertical structure of reflectivity in these areas. For examining up-/downdrafts in the windward or leeward side of Mt. Jiri, we developed a new scheme technique to estimate vertical velocities (w) from drop size and fall velocity spectra of Parsivel disdrometers at different stations. Their comparison with the w values observed by the 3D anemometer showed quite good agreement each other. The Z histogram with regard to the estimated w was similar to that with regard to R, indicating that Parsivel-estimated w is quite reasonable for classifying strong and weak rain, corresponding to updraft and downdraft, respectively. Mostly, positive w values (upward) were estimated in heavy rainfall at the windward side (D1 and D2). Negative w values (downward) were dominant even during large rainfall at the leeward side (D4). For D1 and D2, the upward w percentages were larger than the downward w percentages. At the leeward side, the downward w percentages were larger than the upward at D4. Importantly, this suggests that rainfall with R >10 mm hr-1 at the leeward side was more associated by negative w-components of winds. Therefore, we confirmed the possibility of w (up/down draft) estimation by DSD observation using disdrometers and quantitative contribution of w in orographic precipitation, roughly. In addition, the rainrates (R) of precipitation, radar reflectivities (Z) and vertical velocities (w) characteristics are related to the size and fall velocity spectra distributions by disdrometer. The vertical velocities contributed to the orographic precipitation development and dissipation and they clearly showed different values between windward side and leeward side with R variation. Acknowledgement This work was funded by the Korea Meteorological Industry Promotion Agency under Grants KMIPA 2015-5060 and KMIPA 2015-1050.

Remote sensing of severe convective storms over Qinghai-Xizang Plateau

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hung, R. J.; Liu, J. M.; Tsao, D. Y.; Smith, R. E.

1984-01-01

The American satellite, GOES-1 was moved to the Indian Ocean at 58 deg E during the First GARP Global Experiment (FGGE). The Qinghai-Xizang Plateau significantly affects the initiation and development of heavy rainfall and severe storms in China, just as the Rocky Mountains influence the local storms in the United States. Satelite remote sensing of short-lived, meso-scale convective storms is particularly important for covering a huge area of a high elevation with a low population density, such as the Qinghai-Xizang Plateau. Results of this study show that a high growth rate of the convective clouds, followed by a rapid collapse of the cloud top, is associated with heavy rainfall in the area. The tops of the convective clouds developed over the Plateau lie between the altitudes of the two tropopauses, while the tops of convective clouds associated with severe storms in the United States usually extend much above the tropopause.

Spatial and temporal features of heavy rainstorm events in Calabria, Southern Italy

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Terranova, Oreste Giuseppe; Gariano, Stefano Luigi; Greco, Raffaele

2015-04-01

Heavy rainstorms often induce flash floods, shallow landslides and debris flows, which cause several damage to manmade infrastructures and loss of lives. The analysis of spatial distribution and temporal features of intense rainfall events is a fundamental step for a better understanding of the phenomena and for its possible prediction. The present study is an attempt to improve, from a statistical point of view, the understanding at sub-hourly scale of the temporal and spatial structure of intense rainfall events, by examining those that have hit Calabria (Southern Italy) in the years 1998-2008. More in detail, a considerable amount of series with high temporal detail (5 min) related to 155 sites (one rain gauge per less than 100 sq km), were analysed. First, more than 152 thousands rainfall events, separated by at least 6 hours of dry weather, were recognized. Then, less than a third (45,533) were selected, since denoted as erosive. Finally, several heavy rainstorm events (HREs) were chosen by considering the rainfall events recorded simultaneously at different rain gauges, even non-contiguous, within the region. In particular, this further selection was conducted, based on heuristic threshold values of cumulated rainfall (≥ 100 mm), maximum intensity (≥ 50 mm/h), and kinetic energy (≥ 29 MJ/ha). Therefore, 25 distinct HREs, including all the well-known catastrophic geo-hydrological events, were subjected to thorough investigation. The obtained HREs, automatically classified according to their structure in time, were analysed as regards both spatial and temporal evolution. At this end, the 25 HREs were distinguished as widespread (17) or localized (8), if the affected area is ≥ 500 sq km or < 500 sq km, respectively. In particular, the temporal storm structure was described by means of the standardized rainfall profile (rainfall amount vs. duration, in terms on cumulative percentages). Then, a 4-digit binary shape code was adopted to automatically identify the shape of the profile (Terranova and Iaquinta, 2011; Terranova and Gariano, 2014). HREs have different spatial extents and temporal patterns. A wide spatial extent of the events does not imply damage proportionally high. Generally, a peak at the beginning of the event (thunderstorm-type) characterizes localized events. On the contrary, widespread events present mixed temporal structures with peaks localized in the last half of their duration. The proposed method improves the knowledge regarding the input of rainfall-runoff watershed models. These models can benefit from design storms, based on the synthesis of recorded rainstorms, having a time structure integrated with the results of the spatial analysis. The notable size of the employed sample, including data with a very detailed time resolution that relate to several rain gauges well distributed throughout the region, gives robustness to the obtained results. References O.G. Terranova, and P. Iaquinta.: Temporal properties of rainfall events in Calabria (southern Italy). Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 11, 751-757, 2011. O.G. Terranova, and S.L. Gariano.: Rainstorms able to induce flash floods in a Mediterranean-climate region (Calabria, southern Italy). Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 14, 2423-2434, 2014.

Evaluation of radar and automatic weather station data assimilation for a heavy rainfall event in southern China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hou, Tuanjie; Kong, Fanyou; Chen, Xunlai; Lei, Hengchi; Hu, Zhaoxia

2015-07-01

To improve the accuracy of short-term (0-12 h) forecasts of severe weather in southern China, a real-time storm-scale forecasting system, the Hourly Assimilation and Prediction System (HAPS), has been implemented in Shenzhen, China. The forecasting system is characterized by combining the Advanced Research Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF-ARW) model and the Advanced Regional Prediction System (ARPS) three-dimensional variational data assimilation (3DVAR) package. It is capable of assimilating radar reflectivity and radial velocity data from multiple Doppler radars as well as surface automatic weather station (AWS) data. Experiments are designed to evaluate the impacts of data assimilation on quantitative precipitation forecasting (QPF) by studying a heavy rainfall event in southern China. The forecasts from these experiments are verified against radar, surface, and precipitation observations. Comparison of echo structure and accumulated precipitation suggests that radar data assimilation is useful in improving the short-term forecast by capturing the location and orientation of the band of accumulated rainfall. The assimilation of radar data improves the short-term precipitation forecast skill by up to 9 hours by producing more convection. The slight but generally positive impact that surface AWS data has on the forecast of near-surface variables can last up to 6-9 hours. The assimilation of AWS observations alone has some benefit for improving the Fractions Skill Score (FSS) and bias scores; when radar data are assimilated, the additional AWS data may increase the degree of rainfall overprediction.

NASA Sees Heavy Rainfall in Tropical Storm Andrea

NASA Image and Video Library

2013-06-06

NASA’s Terra satellite passed over Tropical Storm Andrea on June 5 at 16:25 UTC (12:25 p.m. EDT) and the MODIS instrument captured this visible image of the storm. Andrea’s clouds had already extended over more than half of Florida. Credit: NASA Goddard MODIS Rapid Response Team --- NASA Sees Heavy Rainfall in Tropical Storm Andrea NASA’s TRMM satellite passed over Tropical Storm Andrea right after it was named, while NASA’s Terra satellite captured a visible image of the storm’s reach hours beforehand. TRMM measures rainfall from space and saw that rainfall rates in the southern part of the storm was falling at almost 5 inches per hour. NASA’s Terra satellite passed over Tropical Storm Andrea on June 5 at 16:25 UTC (12:25 p.m. EDT) and the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer or MODIS instrument, captured a visible image of the storm. At that time, Andrea’s clouds had already extended over more than half of Florida. At 8 p.m. EDT on Wednesday, June 5, System 91L became the first tropical storm of the Atlantic Ocean hurricane season. Tropical Storm Andrea was centered near 25.5 North and 86.5 West, about 300 miles (485 km) southwest of Tampa, Fla. At the time Andrea intensified into a tropical storm, its maximum sustained winds were near 40 mph (65 kph). Full updates can be found at NASA's Hurricane page: www.nasa.gov/hurricane Rob Gutro NASA’s Goddard Space Flight Center

NASA Sees Heavy Rainfall in Tropical Storm Andrea

NASA Image and Video Library

2017-12-08

This NOAA GOES-East satellite animation shows the development of System 91L into Tropical Storm Andrea over the course of 3 days from June 4 to June 6, just after Andrea was officially designated a tropical storm. Credit: NASA's GOES Project --- NASA Sees Heavy Rainfall in Tropical Storm Andrea NASA’s TRMM satellite passed over Tropical Storm Andrea right after it was named, while NASA’s Terra satellite captured a visible image of the storm’s reach hours beforehand. TRMM measures rainfall from space and saw that rainfall rates in the southern part of the storm was falling at almost 5 inches per hour. NASA’s Terra satellite passed over Tropical Storm Andrea on June 5 at 16:25 UTC (12:25 p.m. EDT) and the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer or MODIS instrument, captured a visible image of the storm. At that time, Andrea’s clouds had already extended over more than half of Florida. At 8 p.m. EDT on Wednesday, June 5, System 91L became the first tropical storm of the Atlantic Ocean hurricane season. Tropical Storm Andrea was centered near 25.5 North and 86.5 West, about 300 miles (485 km) southwest of Tampa, Fla. At the time Andrea intensified into a tropical storm, its maximum sustained winds were near 40 mph (65 kph). Full updates can be found at NASA's Hurricane page: www.nasa.gov/hurricane Rob Gutro NASA’s Goddard Space Flight Center

An Approach to Assessing Flood Risk in Low-lying Paddy Areas of Japan considering Economic Damage on Rice

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Minakawa, H.; Masumoto, T.

2013-12-01

Hiroki Minakawa, Takao Masumoto National Institute for Rural Engineering (NIRE), NARO, Japan Flooding is one type of nature disaster, and is caused by heavy rainfall events. In the future, the risk of flooding is predicted to increase due to global climate change. Immediate measures such as strengthening drainage capacity are needed to minimize the damage caused by more frequent flooding, so a quantitative evaluation method of flood risks is needed to discuss countermeasure against these problems. At the same time, rice is an important crop for food production in Japan. However, paddy fields are often damaged by flooding because they are principally spread in lower part of the basin. Therefore, it is also important to assess the damages to paddy fields. This study discusses a method for evaluating a relationship between the risk of flood damage and the scale of heavy rainfall. We also developed a method of estimating the economic effect of a reduction in rice yield by flooding. First, we developed a drainage analysis model that incorporates kinematic and diffusive runoff models for calculating water level in channels and paddies. Next, heavy rainfall data for drainage analyses were generated by using a diurnal rainfall pattern generator. The generator can create hourly data of heavy rainfall, and internal pattern of them is different each. These data were input to the drainage model to estimate flood risk. Simultaneously, we tried to clarify economic losses of a rice yields caused by flooding. Here, the reduction scale in rice yield which shows relations between flooding situation (e.g. water level, duration of submersion etc.) and damage of rice is available to calculate reduction of rice yield. In this study, we created new reduction scales through a pseudo-flooding experiment under real inundation conditions. The methodology of the experiment was as follow: We chose the popular Japanese rice cultivar Koshihikari for this experiment. An experimental arena was constructed in a rice paddy plot, which consisted of two zones, one in which the rice was cultivated as usual with normal water levels, and a flood zone, which was used for submerging rice plants. The flood zone, which was designed to reproduce actual flood disaster conditions in paddy fields, can be filled with water to a depth of 0.3, 0.6 or 0.9 m above ground level, and is divided into two plots, a clean water part and a turbid water part. Thus, the experimental conditions can vary according to 1) the development stage of rice, 2) complete or incomplete submersion, 3) clean or turbid water, and 4) duration of submergence. Finally, the reduction scales were formulated by using the resultant data and it was found that rice is most sensitive to damage during the development stage. Flood risk was evaluated by using calculated water level on each paddy. Here, the averaged duration of inundation to a depth of more than 0.3 m was used as the criteria for flood occurrence. The results indicated that the duration increased with larger heavy rainfall amounts. Furthermore, the damage to rice was predicted to increase especially in low-lying paddy fields. Mitigation measures, such as revising drainage planning and/or changing design standards for the capacity of drainage pumps may be necessary in the future.

Satellite techniques yield insight into devastating rainfall from Hurricane Mitch

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ferraro, R.; Vicente, G.; Ba, M.; Gruber, A.; Scofield, R.; Li, Q.; Weldon, R.

Hurricane Mitch may prove to be one of the most devastating tropical cyclones to affect the western hemisphere. Heavy rains over Central America from October 28, 1998, to November 1, 1998, caused widespread flooding and mud slides in Nicaragua and Honduras resulting in thousands of deaths and missing persons. News reports indicated entire towns being swept away, destruction of national economies and infrastructure, and widespread disease in the aftermath of the storm, which some estimates suggested dropped as much as 1300 mm of rain.However, in view of the widespread damage it is difficult to determine the actual amounts and distribution of rainfall. More accurate means of determining the rainfall associated with Mitch are vital for diagnosing and understanding the evolution of this disaster and for developing new mitigation strategies for future tropical cyclones. Satellite data may prove to be a reliable resource for accurate rainfall analysis and have yielded apparently reliable figures for Hurricane Mitch.

Thirty-one years of debris-flow observation and monitoring near La Honda, California, USA

USGS Publications Warehouse

Wieczorek, G.F.; Wilson, R.C.; Ellen, S.D.; Reid, M.E.; Jayko, A.S.

2007-01-01

From 1975 until 2006,18 intense storms triggered at least 248 debris flows within 10 km2 northwest of the town of La Honda within the Santa Cruz Mountains, California. In addition to mapping debris flows and other types of landslides, studies included soil sampling and geologic mapping, piezometric and tensiometer monitoring, and rainfall measurement and recording. From 1985 until 1995, a system with radio telemetered rain gages and piezometers within the La Honda region was used for issuing six debris-flow warnings within the San Francisco Bay region through the NOAA ALERT system. Depending upon the relative intensity of rainfall during storms, debris flows were generated from deep slumps, shallow slumps, shallow slides in colluvium and shallow slides over bedrock. Analysis shows the storms with abundant antecedent rainfall followed by several days of steady heavy intense rainfall triggered the most abundant debris flows. ?? 2007 millpress.

Anomalous High Rainfall and Soil Saturation as Combined Risk Indicator of Rift Valley Fever Outbreaks, South Africa, 2008-2011.

PubMed

Williams, Roy; Malherbe, Johan; Weepener, Harold; Majiwa, Phelix; Swanepoel, Robert

2016-12-01

Rift Valley fever (RVF), a zoonotic vectorborne viral disease, causes loss of life among humans and livestock and an adverse effect on the economy of affected countries. Vaccination is the most effective way to protect livestock; however, during protracted interepidemic periods, farmers discontinue vaccination, which leads to loss of herd immunity and heavy losses of livestock when subsequent outbreaks occur. Retrospective analysis of the 2008-2011 RVF epidemics in South Africa revealed a pattern of continuous and widespread seasonal rainfall causing substantial soil saturation followed by explicit rainfall events that flooded dambos (seasonally flooded depressions), triggering outbreaks of disease. Incorporation of rainfall and soil saturation data into a prediction model for major outbreaks of RVF resulted in the correctly identified risk in nearly 90% of instances at least 1 month before outbreaks occurred; all indications are that irrigation is of major importance in the remaining 10% of outbreaks.

Estimation of typhoon rainfall in GaoPing River: A Multivariate Maximum Entropy Method

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pei-Jui, Wu; Hwa-Lung, Yu

2016-04-01

The heavy rainfall from typhoons is the main factor of the natural disaster in Taiwan, which causes the significant loss of human lives and properties. Statistically average 3.5 typhoons invade Taiwan every year, and the serious typhoon, Morakot in 2009, impacted Taiwan in recorded history. Because the duration, path and intensity of typhoon, also affect the temporal and spatial rainfall type in specific region , finding the characteristics of the typhoon rainfall type is advantageous when we try to estimate the quantity of rainfall. This study developed a rainfall prediction model and can be divided three parts. First, using the EEOF(extended empirical orthogonal function) to classify the typhoon events, and decompose the standard rainfall type of all stations of each typhoon event into the EOF and PC(principal component). So we can classify the typhoon events which vary similarly in temporally and spatially as the similar typhoon types. Next, according to the classification above, we construct the PDF(probability density function) in different space and time by means of using the multivariate maximum entropy from the first to forth moment statistically. Therefore, we can get the probability of each stations of each time. Final we use the BME(Bayesian Maximum Entropy method) to construct the typhoon rainfall prediction model , and to estimate the rainfall for the case of GaoPing river which located in south of Taiwan.This study could be useful for typhoon rainfall predictions in future and suitable to government for the typhoon disaster prevention .

Development of Radar-Satellite Blended QPF (Quantitative Precipitation Forecast) Technique for heavy rainfall

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jang, Sangmin; Yoon, Sunkwon; Rhee, Jinyoung; Park, Kyungwon

2016-04-01

Due to the recent extreme weather and climate change, a frequency and size of localized heavy rainfall increases and it may bring various hazards including sediment-related disasters, flooding and inundation. To prevent and mitigate damage from such disasters, very short range forecasting and nowcasting of precipitation amounts are very important. Weather radar data very useful in monitoring and forecasting because weather radar has high resolution in spatial and temporal. Generally, extrapolation based on the motion vector is the best method of precipitation forecasting using radar rainfall data for a time frame within a few hours from the present. However, there is a need for improvement due to the radar rainfall being less accurate than rain-gauge on surface. To improve the radar rainfall and to take advantage of the COMS (Communication, Ocean and Meteorological Satellite) data, a technique to blend the different data types for very short range forecasting purposes was developed in the present study. The motion vector of precipitation systems are estimated using 1.5km CAPPI (Constant Altitude Plan Position Indicator) reflectivity by pattern matching method, which indicates the systems' direction and speed of movement and blended radar-COMS rain field is used for initial data. Since the original horizontal resolution of COMS is 4 km while that of radar is about 1 km, spatial downscaling technique is used to downscale the COMS data from 4 to 1 km pixels in order to match with the radar data. The accuracies of rainfall forecasting data were verified utilizing AWS (Automatic Weather System) observed data for an extreme rainfall occurred in the southern part of Korean Peninsula on 25 August 2014. The results of this study will be used as input data for an urban stream real-time flood early warning system and a prediction model of landslide. Acknowledgement This research was supported by a grant (13SCIPS04) from Smart Civil Infrastructure Research Program funded by Ministry of Land, Infrastructure and Transport (MOLIT) of Korea government and Korea Agency for Infrastructure Technology Advancement (KAIA).

The Use of Water Vapor for Detecting Environments that Lead to Convectively Produced Heavy Precipitation and Flash Floods

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Scofield, Rod; Vicente, Gilberto; Hodges, Mike

2000-01-01

This Tech Report summarizes years of study and experiences on using GOES Water vapor (6.7 micron and precipitable water) and Special Sensor Microwave Imager (SSM/1) from the Defense Meteorological Satellite Program (DMSP) derived Precipitable Water (PNAI) for detecting environments favorable for convectively produced flash floods. An emphasis is on the moisture. upper air flow, and equivalent potential temperature (Theta(sub e)) patterns that lead to devastating flood events. The 15 minute 6.7 micron water vapor imagery is essential for tracking middle to upper tropospheric disturbances that produce upward vertical motion and initiate flash flood producing systems. Water vapor imagery at 6.7 micron is also used to detect surges of upper level moisture (called tropical water vapor plumes) that have been associated with extremely heavy rainfall. Since the water vapor readily depicts lifting mechanisms and upper level moisture, water vapor imagery is often an excellent source of data for recognizing patterns of heavy precipitation and flash floods. In order to analyze the depth of the moisture, the PW aspects of the troposphere must be measured. The collocation (or nearby location) of high values ofP\\V and instability are antecedent conditions prior to the flash flood or heavy rainfall events. Knowledge of PW magnitudes have been used as thresholds for impending flash flood events, PW trends are essential in flash flood prediction. Conceptual models and water vapor products are used to study some of the characteristics of convective systems that occurred over the United States of America (USA) during the summer of 1997 and the 1997-1998 El Nino. P\\V plumes were associated with most of the \\vest coast heavy precipitation events examined during the winter season of 1997 - 1998, In another study, conducted during the summer season of 1997. results showed that the collocation of water vapor (6.7 micron) and P\\N' plumes possessed higher correlations with predicted rainfall amounts than when PW plumes occurred by themselves (i.e.. without the presence of 6.7 micron water vapor plumes). Satellite Analysis Branch (SAB) meteorologists use the 6.7 micron water and P\\V products for their QPE's (interactive Flash Flood Analyzer (IFFA) and Auto-Estimator precipitation estimates), Outlooks, and heavy precipitation briefings with the Hydrometeorological Prediction Center/National Center for Environmental Prediction.

Epidemiological and serological investigation of a waterborne Campylobacter jejuni outbreak in a Danish town.

PubMed

Kuhn, K Gaardbo; Falkenhorst, G; Emborg, H-D; Ceper, T; Torpdahl, M; Krogfelt, K A; Ethelberg, S; Mølbak, K

2017-03-01

Following an unusually heavy rainfall in June 2009, a community-wide outbreak of Campylobacter gastroenteritis occurred in a small Danish town. The outbreak investigation consisted of (1) a cohort study using an e-questionnaire of disease determinants, (2) microbiological study of stool samples, (3) serological study of blood samples from cases and asymptomatic members of case households, and (4) environmental analyses of the water distribution system. The questionnaire study identified 163 cases (respondent attack rate 16%). Results showed a significant dose-response relationship between consumption of tap water and risk of gastroenteritis. Campylobacter jejuni belonging to two related flaA types were isolated from stool samples. Serum antibody levels against Campylobacter were significantly higher in cases than in asymptomatic persons. Water samples were positive for coliform bacteria, and the likely mode of contamination was found to be surface water leaking into the drinking-water system. This geographically constrained outbreak presented an ideal opportunity to study the serological response in persons involved in a Campylobacter outbreak. The serology indicated that asymptomatic persons from the same household may have been exposed, during the outbreak period, to Campylobacter at doses that did not elicit symptoms or alternatively had been exposed to Campylobacter at a time prior to the outbreak, resulting in residual immunity and thus absence of clinical signs.

Heavy and Light chain amyloidosois presenting as complete heart block: A rare presentation of a rare disease.

PubMed

Priyamvada, P S; Morkhandikar, S; Srinivas, B H; Parameswaran, S

2015-01-01

Amyloidosis is an uncommon disease characterized by deposition of proteinaceous material in the extracellular matrix, which results from abnormal protein folding. Even though more than 25 precursor proteins are identified, majority of systemic amyloidosis results from deposition of abnormal immunoglobulin (Ig) light chains. In heavy chain amyloidosis (AH), deposits are derived from both heavy chain alone, whereas in heavy and light chain amyloidosis (AHL), the deposits are derived from Ig heavy chains and light chains. Both AH and AHL are extremely rare diseases. Here, we report an unusual presentation of IgG (lambda) AHL amyloidosis in the background of multiple myeloma, where the initial clinical presentation was complete heart block, which preceded the definitive diagnosis by 18 months.

NASA Spacecraft Monitors Flooding in Algeria

NASA Image and Video Library

2012-03-09

Extremely heavy rains fell at the end of February 2012 in the northern Algerian province of El Tarf, near the Tunisian border. The rainfall total was the greatest recorded in the last 30 years. This image is from NASA Terra spacecraft.

Real-time landslide warning during heavy rainfall

USGS Publications Warehouse

Keefer, D.K.; Wilson, R.C.; Mark, R.K.; Brabb, E.E.; Brown, W. M.; Ellen, S.D.; Harp, E.L.; Wieczorek, G.F.; Alger, C.S.; Zatkin, R.S.

1987-01-01

A real-time system for issuing warnings of landslides during major storms is being developed for the San Francisco Bay region, California. The system is based on empirical and theoretical relations between rainfall and landslide initiation, geologic determination of areas susceptible to landslides, real-time monitoring of a regional network of telemetering rain gages, and National Weather Service precipitation forecasts. This system was used to issue warnings during the storms of 12 to 21 February 1986, which produced 800 millimeters of rainfall in the region. Although analysis after the storms suggests that modifications and additional developments are needed, the system successfully predicted the times of major landslide events. It could be used as a prototype for systems in other landslide-prone regions.

The relationship of lightning activity and short-duration rainfall events during warm seasons over the Beijing metropolitan region

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wu, Fan; Cui, Xiaopeng; Zhang, Da-Lin; Qiao, Lin

2017-10-01

The relationship between lightning activity and rainfall associated with 2925 short-duration rainfall (SDR) events over the Beijing metropolitan region (BMR) is examined during the warm seasons of 2006-2007, using the cloud-to-ground (CG) and intracloud (IC) lightning data from Surveillance et Alerte Foudre par Interférometrie Radioélectrique (SAFIR)-3000 and 5-min rainfall data from automatic weather stations (AWSs). An optimal radius of 10 km around selected AWSs is used to determine the lightning-rainfall relationship. The lightning-rainfall correlations vary significantly, depending upon the intensity of SDR events. That is, correlation coefficient (R 0.7) for the short-duration heavy rainfall (SDHR, i.e., ≥ 20 mm h- 1) events is found higher than that (R 0.4) for the weak SDR (i.e., 5-10 mm h- 1) events, and lower percentage of the SDHR events (< 10%) than the weak SDR events (40-50%) are observed with few flashes. Significant time-lagged correlations between lightning and rainfall are also found. About 80% of the SDR events could reach their highest correlation coefficients when the associated lightning flashes shift at time lags of < 25 min before and after rainfall begins. Those events with lightning preceding rainfall account for 50-60% of the total SDR events. Better lightning-rainfall correlations can be attained when time lags are incorporated, with the use of total (CG and IC) lightning data. These results appear to have important implications for improving the nowcast of SDHR events.

The influence of El Niño-Southern Oscillation on boreal winter rainfall over Peninsular Malaysia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Richard, Sandra; Walsh, Kevin J. E.

2017-09-01

Multi-scale interactions between El Niño-Southern Oscillation and the Boreal Winter Monsoon contribute to rainfall variations over Malaysia. Understanding the physical mechanisms that control these spatial variations in local rainfall is crucial for improving weather and climate prediction and related risk management. Analysis using station observations and European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts Interim Reanalysis (ERA-Interim) reanalysis reveals a significant decrease in rainfall during El Niño (EL) and corresponding increase during La Niña particularly north of 2°N over Peninsular Malaysia (PM). It is noted that the southern tip of PM shows a small increase in rainfall during El Niño although not significant. Analysis of the diurnal cycle of rainfall and winds indicates that there are no significant changes in morning and evening rainfall over PM that could explain the north-south disparity. Thus, we suggest that the key factor which might explain the north-south rainfall disparity is the moisture flux convergence (MFC). During the December to January (DJF) period of EL years, except for the southern tip of PM, significant negative MFC causes drying as well as suppression of uplift over most areas. In addition, lower specific humidity combined with moisture flux divergence results in less moisture over PM. Thus, over the areas north of 2°N, less rainfall (less heavy rain days) with smaller diurnal rainfall amplitude explains the negative rainfall anomaly observed during DJF of EL. The same MFC argument might explain the dipolar pattern over other areas such as Borneo if further analysis is performed.

Evaluation of Heavy Metal Exposure to Soil and Paddy Plant around the Closed Municipal Solid Waste Landfill: Case Study at Gunung Tugel Landfill, Banyumas-Central Java

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kasam; Rahmawati, Suphia; Mulya Iresha, Fajri; Wacano, Dhandhun; Farida Fauziah, Ida; Afif Amrullah, Muhammad

2018-01-01

This work was focused on assessing the exposure of heavy metal from closed municipal solid waste (MSW) landfill on soil and paddy plants. This study aimed to determine heavy metal content whether at the soil in the around Gunung Tugel landfill included and accumulated in the paddy plant tissues. The investigated metals include chromium (Cr), copper (Cu), cadmium (Cd), iron (Fe), and zinc (Zn). The samples were acid-digested before the desired elements were measured using Atomic Absorption Spectrophotometry (AAS). The results are presented as distribution map of the landfill area based on the total heavy metals content distribution in the soil and paddy plants. The samples shown that the concentrations of heavy metals around Gunung Tugel landfill are 6.27-34.71 mg/kg, 0.17-0.42 mg/kg, 28.29-48.69 mg/kg, 18,997.26-32,572.29 mg/kg, 342.74-834.49 mg/kg, 136.10-290.14 mg/kg at the top soil and 0.00-1.70 mg/kg, 0.00-0.26 mg/kg, 0.79-10.46 mg/kg, 13.88-61.46 mg/kg, 18.79-50.56 mg/kg, 87.27-273.22 mg/kg at the paddy for Cr, Cd, Cu, Fe, Mn, and Zn respectively. According to the results, The Gunung Tugel landfill is not a direct source of heavy metal pollution at paddy plant in the landfill area, but through surface water and soil media. Rainfall around landfill is quite high ie more 2000 mm/year of rainfall and soil permeability is 1.0 cm/sec.

Sensitivity of a Cumulus Parameterization Scheme to Precipitation Production Representation and Its Impact on a Heavy Rain Event over Korea

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Han, Ji-Young; Hong, Song-You; Sunny Lim, Kyo-Sun

The sensitivity of a cumulus parameterization scheme (CPS) to a representation of precipitation production is examined. To do this, the parameter that determines the fraction of cloud condensate converted to precipitation in the simplified Arakawa–Schubert (SAS) convection scheme is modified following the results from a cloud-resolving simulation. While the original conversion parameter is assumed to be constant, the revised parameter includes a temperature dependency above the freezing level, whichleadstolessproductionoffrozenprecipitating condensate with height. The revised CPS has been evaluated for a heavy rainfall event over Korea as well as medium-range forecasts using the Global/Regional Integrated Model system (GRIMs). The inefficient conversionmore » of cloud condensate to convective precipitation at colder temperatures generally leads to a decrease in pre-cipitation, especially in the category of heavy rainfall. The resultant increase of detrained moisture induces moistening and cooling at the top of clouds. A statistical evaluation of the medium-range forecasts with the revised precipitation conversion parameter shows an overall improvement of the forecast skill in precipitation and large-scale fields, indicating importance of more realistic representation of microphysical processes in CPSs.« less

A Brief Overview of the Southern United States Fire Situation January - July 1998

Treesearch

Dale D. Wade

1998-01-01

Unusually wet conditions associated with El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) this past winter had a significant negative impact on prescribed burning operations. In spite of the high rainfall, natural resource managers in Florida still succeeded in treating more than 500,000 acres during the first three months of 1998. (In a typical year about 2,000,000 acres are...

Impacts of urbanization on Indian summer monsoon rainfall extremes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shastri, Hiteshri; Paul, Supantha; Ghosh, Subimal; Karmakar, Subhankar

2015-01-01

areas have different climatology with respect to their rural surroundings. Though urbanization is a worldwide phenomenon, it is especially prevalent in India, where urban areas have experienced an unprecedented rate of growth over the last 30 years. Here we take up an observational study to understand the influence of urbanization on the characteristics of precipitation (specifically extremes) in India. We identify 42 urban regions and compare their extreme rainfall characteristics with those of surrounding rural areas. We observe that, on an overall scale, the urban signatures on extreme rainfall are not prominently and consistently visible, but they are spatially nonuniform. Zonal analysis reveals significant impacts of urbanization on extreme rainfall in central and western regions of India. An additional examination, to understand the influences of urbanization on heavy rainfall climatology, is carried with station level data using a statistical method, quantile regression. This is performed for the most populated city of India, Mumbai, in pair with a nearby nonurban area, Alibaug; both having similar geographic location. The derived extreme rainfall regression quantiles reveal the sensitivity of extreme rainfall events to the increased urbanization. Overall the study identifies the climatological zones in India, where increased urbanization affects regional rainfall pattern and extremes, with a detailed case study of Mumbai. This also calls attention to the need of further experimental investigation, for the identification of the key climatological processes, in different regions of India, affected by increased urbanization.

Dutch national rainfallradar project: a unique corporation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schuurmans, Hanneke; Maarten Verbree, Jan; Leijnse, Hidde; van Heeringen, Klaas-Jan; Uijlenhoet, Remko; Bierkens, Mark; van de Giesen, Nick; Gooijer, Jan; van den Houten, Gert

2013-04-01

Since January 2013 Dutch watermanagers have access to innovative high-quality rainfall data. This product is innovative because of the following reasons. (i) The product is developed in a 'golden triangle' construction - corporation between government, business and research institutes. (ii) Second the rainfall products are developed according to the open-source GPL license. The initiative comes from a group of water boards in the Netherlands that joined their forces to fund the development of a new rainfall product. Not only data from Dutch radar stations (as is currently done by the Dutch meteorological organization KNMI) is used but also data from radars in Germany and Belgium. After a radarcomposite is made, it is adjusted according to data from raingauges (ground truth). This results in 9 different rainfall products that give for each moment the best rainfall data. This data will be used, depending on the end-user for several applications: (i) forecasts: input for flood early warning systems, (ii) water system analysis: hydrological model input, (iii) optimization: real time control and (iv) investigation of incidents: in case of flooding, who's responsible. The latter is mainly insight in the return period of heavy rainfall events. More info (in Dutch): www.nationaleregenradar.nl

Integrated Urban Flood Analysis considering Optimal Operation of Flood Control Facilities in Urban Drainage Networks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Moon, Y. I.; Kim, M. S.; Choi, J. H.; Yuk, G. M.

2017-12-01

eavy rainfall has become a recent major cause of urban area flooding due to the climate change and urbanization. To prevent property damage along with casualties, a system which can alert and forecast urban flooding must be developed. Optimal performance of reducing flood damage can be expected of urban drainage facilities when operated in smaller rainfall events over extreme ones. Thus, the purpose of this study is to execute: A) flood forecasting system using runoff analysis based on short term rainfall; and B) flood warning system which operates based on the data from pump stations and rainwater storage in urban basins. In result of the analysis, it is shown that urban drainage facilities using short term rainfall forecasting data by radar will be more effective to reduce urban flood damage than using only the inflow data of the facility. Keywords: Heavy Rainfall, Urban Flood, Short-term Rainfall Forecasting, Optimal operating of urban drainage facilities. AcknowledgmentsThis research was supported by a grant (17AWMP-B066744-05) from Advanced Water Management Research Program (AWMP) funded by Ministry of Land, Infrastructure and Transport of Korean government.

C-band attenuation by tropical rainfall in Darwin, Australia, using climatologically tuned Z(e)-R relations

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Atlas, David; Rosenfeld, Daniel; Wolff, David B.

1993-01-01

The probability matching method (PMM) is used as a basis for estimating attenuation in tropical rains near Darwin, Australia. PMM provides a climatological relationship between measured radar reflectivity and rain rate, which includes the effects of rain and cloud attenuation. When the radar sample is representative, PMM estimates the rainfall without bias. When the data are stratified for greater than average rates, the method no longer compensates for the higher attenuation and the radar rainfall estimates are biased low. The uncompensated attenuation is used to estimate the climatological attenuation coefficient. The two-way attenuation coefficient was found to be 0.0085 dB/km ( mm/h) exp -1.08 for the tropical rains and associated clouds in Darwin for the first two months of the year for horizontally polarized radiation at 5.63 GHz. This unusually large value is discussed. The risks of making real-time corrections for attenuation are also treated.

Sunspots, El Niño, and the levels of Lake Victoria, East Africa

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Stager, J. Curt; Ruzmaikin, Alexander; Conway, Declan; Verburg, Piet; Mason, Peter J.

2007-08-01

An association of high sunspot numbers with rises in the level of Lake Victoria, East Africa, has been the focus of many investigations and vigorous debate during the last century. In this paper, we show that peaks in the ~11-year sunspot cycle were accompanied by Victoria level maxima throughout the 20th century, due to the occurrence of positive rainfall anomalies ~1 year before solar maxima. Similar patterns also occurred in at least five other East African lakes, which indicates that these sunspot-rainfall relationships were broadly regional in scale. Although irradiance fluctuations associated with the sunspot cycle are weak, their effects on tropical rainfall could be amplified through interactions with sea surface temperatures and atmospheric circulation systems, including ENSO. If this Sun-rainfall relationship persists in the future, then sunspot cycles can be used for long-term prediction of precipitation anomalies and associated outbreaks of insect-borne disease in much of East Africa. In that case, unusually wet rainy seasons and Rift Valley Fever epidemics should occur a year or so before the next solar maximum, which is expected to occur in 2011-2012 AD.

Heavy rain effects

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Dunham, R. Earl, Jr.

1994-01-01

This paper summarizes the current state of knowledge of the effect of heavy rain on airplane performance. Although the effects of heavy rain on airplane systems and engines are generally known, only recently has the potential aerodynamic effect of heavy rain been recognized. In 1977 the United States Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) conducted a study of 25 aircraft accidents and incidents which occurred between 1964 and 1976 in which low-altitude wind shear could have been a contributing factor. Of the 25 cases (23 approach or landing and 2 take-off) in the study, ten cases had occurred in a rain environment, and in five cases these were classified as intense or heavy rain encounters. These results led to the reconsideration of high-intensity, short-duration rainfall as a potential weather-related aircraft safety hazard, particularly in the take-off and/or approach phases of flight.

Untangling the Impacts of Climate Change on Waterborne Diseases: a Systematic Review of Relationships between Diarrheal Diseases and Temperature, Rainfall, Flooding, and Drought.

PubMed

Levy, Karen; Woster, Andrew P; Goldstein, Rebecca S; Carlton, Elizabeth J

2016-05-17

Global climate change is expected to affect waterborne enteric diseases, yet to date there has been no comprehensive, systematic review of the epidemiological literature examining the relationship between meteorological conditions and diarrheal diseases. We searched PubMed, Embase, Web of Science, and the Cochrane Collection for studies describing the relationship between diarrheal diseases and four meteorological conditions that are expected to increase with climate change: ambient temperature, heavy rainfall, drought, and flooding. We synthesized key areas of agreement and evaluated the biological plausibility of these findings, drawing from a diverse, multidisciplinary evidence base. We identified 141 articles that met our inclusion criteria. Key areas of agreement include a positive association between ambient temperature and diarrheal diseases, with the exception of viral diarrhea and an increase in diarrheal disease following heavy rainfall and flooding events. Insufficient evidence was available to evaluate the effects of drought on diarrhea. There is evidence to support the biological plausibility of these associations, but publication bias is an ongoing concern. Future research evaluating whether interventions, such as improved water and sanitation access, modify risk would further our understanding of the potential impacts of climate change on diarrheal diseases and aid in the prioritization of adaptation measures.

Short-range prediction of a heavy precipitation event by assimilating Chinese CINRAD-SA radar reflectivity data using complex cloud analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sheng, C.; Gao, S.; Xue, M.

2006-11-01

With the ARPS (Advanced Regional Prediction System) Data Analysis System (ADAS) and its complex cloud analysis scheme, the reflectivity data from a Chinese CINRAD-SA Doppler radar are used to analyze 3D cloud and hydrometeor fields and in-cloud temperature and moisture. Forecast experiments starting from such initial conditions are performed for a northern China heavy rainfall event to examine the impact of the reflectivity data and other conventional observations on short-range precipitation forecast. The full 3D cloud analysis mitigates the commonly known spin-up problem with precipitation forecast, resulting a significant improvement in precipitation forecast in the first 4 to 5 hours. In such a case, the position, timing and amount of precipitation are all accurately predicted. When the cloud analysis is used without in-cloud temperature adjustment, only the forecast of light precipitation within the first hour is improved. Additional analysis of surface and upper-air observations on the native ARPS grid, using the 1 degree real-time NCEP AVN analysis as the background, helps improve the location and intensity of rainfall forecasting slightly. Hourly accumulated rainfall estimated from radar reflectivity data is found to be less accurate than the model predicted precipitation when full cloud analysis is used.

Why continuous simulation? The role of antecedent moisture in design flood estimation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pathiraja, S.; Westra, S.; Sharma, A.

2012-06-01

Continuous simulation for design flood estimation is increasingly becoming a viable alternative to traditional event-based methods. The advantage of continuous simulation approaches is that the catchment moisture state prior to the flood-producing rainfall event is implicitly incorporated within the modeling framework, provided the model has been calibrated and validated to produce reasonable simulations. This contrasts with event-based models in which both information about the expected sequence of rainfall and evaporation preceding the flood-producing rainfall event, as well as catchment storage and infiltration properties, are commonly pooled together into a single set of "loss" parameters which require adjustment through the process of calibration. To identify the importance of accounting for antecedent moisture in flood modeling, this paper uses a continuous rainfall-runoff model calibrated to 45 catchments in the Murray-Darling Basin in Australia. Flood peaks derived using the historical daily rainfall record are compared with those derived using resampled daily rainfall, for which the sequencing of wet and dry days preceding the heavy rainfall event is removed. The analysis shows that there is a consistent underestimation of the design flood events when antecedent moisture is not properly simulated, which can be as much as 30% when only 1 or 2 days of antecedent rainfall are considered, compared to 5% when this is extended to 60 days of prior rainfall. These results show that, in general, it is necessary to consider both short-term memory in rainfall associated with synoptic scale dependence, as well as longer-term memory at seasonal or longer time scale variability in order to obtain accurate design flood estimates.

Simulation of extreme rainfall and projection of future changes using the GLIMCLIM model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rashid, Md. Mamunur; Beecham, Simon; Chowdhury, Rezaul Kabir

2017-10-01

In this study, the performance of the Generalized LInear Modelling of daily CLImate sequence (GLIMCLIM) statistical downscaling model was assessed to simulate extreme rainfall indices and annual maximum daily rainfall (AMDR) when downscaled daily rainfall from National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) reanalysis and Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) general circulation models (GCM) (four GCMs and two scenarios) output datasets and then their changes were estimated for the future period 2041-2060. The model was able to reproduce the monthly variations in the extreme rainfall indices reasonably well when forced by the NCEP reanalysis datasets. Frequency Adapted Quantile Mapping (FAQM) was used to remove bias in the simulated daily rainfall when forced by CMIP5 GCMs, which reduced the discrepancy between observed and simulated extreme rainfall indices. Although the observed AMDR were within the 2.5th and 97.5th percentiles of the simulated AMDR, the model consistently under-predicted the inter-annual variability of AMDR. A non-stationary model was developed using the generalized linear model for local, shape and scale to estimate the AMDR with an annual exceedance probability of 0.01. The study shows that in general, AMDR is likely to decrease in the future. The Onkaparinga catchment will also experience drier conditions due to an increase in consecutive dry days coinciding with decreases in heavy (>long term 90th percentile) rainfall days, empirical 90th quantile of rainfall and maximum 5-day consecutive total rainfall for the future period (2041-2060) compared to the base period (1961-2000).

Study on Rainfall Forecasting by Using Weather Satellite Imagery in a Small Watershed Located at Mountainous Area of Central Taiwan

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wei, C.; Cheng, K. S.

Using meteorological radar and satellite imagery had become an efficient tool for rainfall forecasting However few studies were aimed to predict quantitative rainfall in small watersheds for flood forecasting by using remote sensing data Due to the terrain shelter and ground clutter effect of Central Mountain Ridges the application of meteorological radar data was limited in mountainous areas of central Taiwan This study devises a new scheme to predict rainfall of a small upstream watershed by combing GOES-9 geostationary weather satellite imagery and ground rainfall records which can be applied for local quantitative rainfall forecasting during periods of typhoon and heavy rainfall Imagery of two typhoon events in 2004 and five correspondent ground raingauges records of Chitou Forest Recreational Area which is located in upstream region of Bei-Shi river were analyzed in this study The watershed accounts for 12 7 square kilometers and altitudes ranging from 1000 m to 1800 m Basin-wide Average Rainfall BAR in study area were estimated by block kriging Cloud Top Temperature CTT from satellite imagery and ground hourly rainfall records were medium correlated The regression coefficient ranges from 0 5 to 0 7 and the value decreases as the altitude of the gauge site increases The regression coefficient of CCT and next 2 to 6 hour accumulated BAR decrease as the time scale increases The rainfall forecasting for BAR were analyzed by Kalman Filtering Technique The correlation coefficient and average hourly deviates between estimated and observed value of BAR for

Landslides, floods and sinkholes in a karst environment: the 1-6 September 2014 Gargano event, southern Italy

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Martinotti, Maria Elena; Pisano, Luca; Marchesini, Ivan; Rossi, Mauro; Peruccacci, Silvia; Brunetti, Maria Teresa; Melillo, Massimo; Amoruso, Giuseppe; Loiacono, Pierluigi; Vennari, Carmela; Vessia, Giovanna; Trabace, Maria; Parise, Mario; Guzzetti, Fausto

2017-03-01

In karst environments, heavy rainfall is known to cause multiple geohydrological hazards, including inundations, flash floods, landslides and sinkholes. We studied a period of intense rainfall from 1 to 6 September 2014 in the Gargano Promontory, a karst area in Puglia, southern Italy. In the period, a sequence of torrential rainfall events caused severe damage and claimed two fatalities. The amount and accuracy of the geographical and temporal information varied for the different hazards. The temporal information was most accurate for the inundation caused by a major river, less accurate for flash floods caused by minor torrents and even less accurate for landslides. For sinkholes, only generic information on the period of occurrence of the failures was available. Our analysis revealed that in the promontory, rainfall-driven hazards occurred in response to extreme meteorological conditions and that the karst landscape responded to the torrential rainfall with a threshold behaviour. We exploited the rainfall and the landslide information to design the new ensemble-non-exceedance probability (E-NEP) algorithm for the quantitative evaluation of the possible occurrence of rainfall-induced landslides and of related geohydrological hazards. The ensemble of the metrics produced by the E-NEP algorithm provided better diagnostics than the single metrics often used for landslide forecasting, including rainfall duration, cumulated rainfall and rainfall intensity. We expect that the E-NEP algorithm will be useful for landslide early warning in karst areas and in other similar environments. We acknowledge that further tests are needed to evaluate the algorithm in different meteorological, geological and physiographical settings.

The effects of more extreme rainfall patterns on nitrogen leaching from a field crop system in the upper Midwest, USA

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hess, L.; Hinckley, E. L. S.; Robertson, G. P.; Matson, P. A.

2016-12-01

As global surface temperatures rise, the proportion of total rainfall that falls in heavy storm events is increasing in many areas, in particular the US Midwest, a major agricultural region. These changes in rainfall patterns may have consequences for ecosystem nutrient losses, especially from agricultural ecosystems. We conducted a multi-year rainfall manipulation experiment to examine how more extreme rainfall patterns affect nitrogen (N) leaching from row-crop ecosystems in the upper Midwest, and to what extent tillage may moderate these effects. 5x5m rainout shelters were installed in April 2015 to impose control and extreme rainfall patterns in replicated plots under conventional tillage and no-till management at the Kellogg Biological Station LTER site. Plots exposed to the control rainfall treatment received ambient rainfall, and those exposed to the extreme rainfall treatment received the same total amount of water but applied once every 2 weeks, to simulate larger, less frequent storms. N leaching was calculated as the product of measured soil water N concentrations and modeled soil water drainage at 1.2m depth using HYDRUS-1D. Based on data to date, more N has been leached from both tilled and no-till soils exposed to the extreme rainfall treatment compared to the control rainfall treatment. Results thus far suggest that greater soil water drainage is a primary driver of this increase, and changes in within-system nitrogen cycling - such as net N mineralization and crop N uptake - may also play a role. The experiment is ongoing, and our results so far suggest that intensifying precipitation patterns may exacerbate N leaching from agricultural soils, with potentially negative consequences for receiving ground- and surface waters, as well as for farmers.

Mean Excess Function as a method of identifying sub-exponential tails: Application to extreme daily rainfall

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nerantzaki, Sofia; Papalexiou, Simon Michael

2017-04-01

Identifying precisely the distribution tail of a geophysical variable is tough, or, even impossible. First, the tail is the part of the distribution for which we have the less empirical information available; second, a universally accepted definition of tail does not and cannot exist; and third, a tail may change over time due to long-term changes. Unfortunately, the tail is the most important part of the distribution as it dictates the estimates of exceedance probabilities or return periods. Fortunately, based on their tail behavior, probability distributions can be generally categorized into two major families, i.e., sub-exponentials (heavy-tailed) and hyper-exponentials (light-tailed). This study aims to update the Mean Excess Function (MEF), providing a useful tool in order to asses which type of tail better describes empirical data. The MEF is based on the mean value of a variable over a threshold and results in a zero slope regression line when applied for the Exponential distribution. Here, we construct slope confidence intervals for the Exponential distribution as functions of sample size. The validation of the method using Monte Carlo techniques on four theoretical distributions covering major tail cases (Pareto type II, Log-normal, Weibull and Gamma) revealed that it performs well especially for large samples. Finally, the method is used to investigate the behavior of daily rainfall extremes; thousands of rainfall records were examined, from all over the world and with sample size over 100 years, revealing that heavy-tailed distributions can describe more accurately rainfall extremes.

Flood of June 7-9, 2008, in Central and Southern Indiana

USGS Publications Warehouse

Morlock, Scott E.; Menke, Chad D.; Arvin, Donald V.; Kim, Moon H.

2008-01-01

On June 6-7, 2008, heavy rainfall of 2 to more than 10 inches fell upon saturated soils and added to already high streamflows from a wetter than normal spring in central and southern Indiana. The heavy rainfall resulted in severe flooding on many streams within the White River Basin during June 7-9, causing three deaths, evacuation of thousands of residents, and hundreds of millions of dollars of damage to residences, businesses, infrastructure, and agricultural lands. In all, 39 Indiana counties were declared Federal disaster areas. U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) streamgages at nine locations recorded new record peak streamflows for the respective periods of record as a result of the heavy rainfall. Recurrence intervals of flood-peak streamflows were estimated to be greater than 100 years at five streamgages and 50-100 years at two streamgages. Peak-gage-height data, peak-streamflow data, and recurrence intervals are tabulated for 19 USGS streamgages in central and southern Indiana. Peak-streamflow estimates are tabulated for four ungaged locations, and estimated recurrence intervals are tabulated for three ungaged locations. The estimated recurrence interval for an ungaged location on Haw Creek in Columbus was greater than 100 years and for an ungaged location on Hurricane Creek in Franklin was 50-100 years. Because flooding was particularly severe in the communities of Columbus, Edinburgh, Franklin, Paragon, Seymour, Spencer, Martinsville, Newberry, and Worthington, high-water-mark data collected after the flood were tabulated for those communities. Flood peak inundation maps and water-surface profiles for selected streams were made in a geographic information system by combining the high-water-mark data with the highest-resolution digital elevation model data available.

An assessment of the impact of ATMS and CrIS data assimilation on precipitation prediction over the Tibetan Plateau

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Xue, Tong; Xu, Jianjun; Guan, Zhaoyong; Chen, Han-Ching; Chiu, Long S.; Shao, Min

2017-07-01

Using the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's Gridpoint Statistical Interpolation data assimilation system and the National Center for Atmospheric Research's Advanced Research Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF-ARW) regional model, the impact of assimilating Advanced Technology Microwave Sounder (ATMS) and Cross-track Infrared Sounder (CrIS) satellite data on precipitation prediction over the Tibetan Plateau in July 2015 was evaluated. Four experiments were designed: a control experiment and three data assimilation experiments with different data sets injected: conventional data only, a combination of conventional and ATMS satellite data, and a combination of conventional and CrIS satellite data. The results showed that the monthly mean of precipitation is shifted northward in the simulations and showed an orographic bias described as an overestimation upwind of the mountains and an underestimation in the south of the rain belt. The rain shadow mainly influenced prediction of the quantity of precipitation, although the main rainfall pattern was well simulated. For the first 24 h and last 24 h of accumulated daily precipitation, the model generally overestimated the amount of precipitation, but it was underestimated in the heavy-rainfall periods of 3-5, 13-16, and 22-25 July. The observed water vapor conveyance from the southeastern Tibetan Plateau was larger than in the model simulations, which induced inaccuracies in the forecast of heavy rain on 3-5 July. The data assimilation experiments, particularly the ATMS assimilation, were closer to the observations for the heavy-rainfall process than the control. Overall, based on the experiments in July 2015, the satellite data assimilation improved to some extent the prediction of the precipitation pattern over the Tibetan Plateau, although the simulation of the rain belt without data assimilation shows the regional shifting.

Floods of March-April 1960 in Eastern Nebraska and adjacent states

USGS Publications Warehouse

Brice, H.D.; West, R.E.

1965-01-01

Snowmelt floods, record breaking on many streams and outstanding in terms of total area affected and runoff volumes generated, occurred in late March and early April 1960 on Missouri River tributaries in adjacent parts of six states. In order of area affected, the States are Nebraska, South Dakota, Iowa, Kansas, Minnesota, and Missouri. Five lives were lost, and the estimated damage was $14 million. Main-stem reservoirs kept Missouri River stages substantially below potential unregulated levels. Without regulation by reservoirs, the stage at Sioux City and Omaha would have been about 9 feet higher than it was and the damage would have been many millions of dollars more than actually occurred. The floods were caused by rapid melting of an extensive snow cover of unusual depth and water equivalent, augmented by light to moderate rains. Temperatures almost continuously below normal, beginning in late December and culminating in record lows at many places during the first half of March, resulted in the retention of record snow accumulations, much later and much farther south than normal. The snowfall in eastern Nebraska from December 27 to March 26 was about twice the annual average. The excessive snowfall and below-normal temperatures produced a record-breaking 75-day period of continuous snow cover at Omaha. A rapidly rising, eastward-moving temperature pattern late in March, in combination with an easterly orientation of many Nebraska streams, tended to magnify flood peaks. The rapid temperature rise started about March 18 in western Nebraska but not until March 26 in the eastern part of the State. As a consequence, flood discharges from the headwaters, often bearing heavy ice floes, arrived in the lower reaches simultaneously with or even ahead of the breakup of the unusually heavy ice cover and caused serious jamming. Comparisons of the peak discharges of the 1960 snowmelt floods with those of previous floods reveal several interesting facts. Peak discharges on the Missouri main stem were appreciably less than those in several other years, largely because of effective reservoir control of upstream runoff, but, many tributaries throughout the report area had maximum discharges for their periods of record. Particularly significant are comparisons at some stations for which historical flood data were available. For example, the peak discharge of the Platte River at Louisville, Nebr., was the greatest since at least 1881, and the peak on the Elkhorn River at Waterloo, Nebr., was the greatest snowmelt flood since at least 1912, although it was less than half of the rain peak of June 12, 1944. Following a characteristic pattern for snowmelt floods, the peaks on the smaller streams generally were not unusual, but the cumulative effect of widespread high runoff throughout the stream systems caused higher and more outstanding peaks in the larger basins. Peaks due to local rains of high intensity often are more significant for small areas. Snowmelt floods occur less frequently than rainfall floods in most basins of this flood area.. Studies made for this report show that an average of only about one out of every four maximum annual flood discharges in the report area results primarily from snowmelt. But for streams flowing from north to south in South Dakota and Iowa, the ratio of snowmelt peaks to rainfall peaks is higher. Comparisons of 1960 flood volumes with those for previous floods are even more striking than peak-discharge comparisons. Flood volumes at eight selected stations for the maximum 20-day period during March and April 1960 exceeded all previous 20-day volumes with only one exception; the ratios ranged from 3.11 for Vermillion River near Wakonda, S. Dak., to 0.93 for Elkhorn River at Waterloo, Nebr. The ratio of the 20-day volume to the 1960 annual runoff for the same group of stations ranged from 20 percent at Niobrara River near Spencer, Nebr., to 74 percent on the Vermillion River. For the lat

Extreme rainfall events in the Sinai Peninsula

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Baldi, Marina; Amin, Doaa; Zayed, Islam Sabry Al; Dalu, Giovanni A.

2017-04-01

In the present paper Authors discuss results from the first phase of a project carried out in the framework of the Agreement on Scientific Cooperation between the Academy of Scientific Research and Technology of Egypt (ASRT) and the National Research Council of Italy (CNR). As in ancient times, today heavy rainfall, often resulting in flash floods, affects Egypt, not only in the coastal areas along the Mediterranean Sea and the Red Sea, but also in arid and semi-arid areas such as Upper Egypt (Luxor, Aswan, and Assiut) and in the Sinai Peninsula, and their distribution has been modified due to the current climate variability. These episodes, although rare, can be catastrophic in regions characterized by a very low annual total amount of precipitation, with large impacts on lives, infrastructures, properties and last but not least, to the great cultural heritage of the Country. Flash flood episodes in the Sinai Peninsula result from heavy, sudden, and short duration rainfall, influenced also by the peculiar orography and soil conditions of the Region, and represent a risk for the population, infrastructures, properties, and sectors like industry and agriculture. On the other hand, flash floods in Sinai and southern/southeastern Egypt represent a potential source for non-conventional fresh water resources. In particular flash flood water, which usually drains into the Gulf of Suez and the Gulf of Aqaba, can fulfill a non-negligible amount of water demand, and/or recharge shallow groundwater aquifers, and the harvested rainfall can represent a source of water for rain-fed agriculture in the region. A general overview of the Sinai current climate is presented, including a climatology of extreme rainfalls events in the last decades. In addition, few selected heavy rainfall episodes which occurred in the Sinai in recent years have been analyzed and their characteristics and links to larger scale circulation will be discussed. Results of the study provide a better understanding of the climate variability and change over Sinai, including a description of extreme rainfalls events in the recent past, the driving mechanisms, generation and evolution of these short-lived and patchy storms and their future evolution under future climate change scenarios, also offering the background for the next step of the project. In fact, the final goal of the ASRT-CNR joint project is on one side to improve the knowledge about the impact of future climate change on the sequence and severity of flash floods in Sinai, on the other side to give some indications for an improvement of the forecast systems over the region at different temporal scale from weekly to sub-seasonal and seasonal. The final results are also intended to provide some basic information about future water harvesting possibilities, and to help decision makers to decide between future protection works and/or water harvesting structures in the Region.

Unusual calcite cementing of quartz grains on Chandeleur Island Beach, offshore Louisiana

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Mitchell-Tapping, H.J.

1983-09-01

A very unusual calcite cement was found in some beachchips from an unconsolidated beach surface of Chandeleur Island offshore approximately 35 nmi (65 km) south of Mississippi in the Gulf of Mexico. The beachchips are irregularly shaped and are well cemented by this unusual calcite. This calcite crystal structure has not been reported previously as existing in a marine environment. A similar cement has been found in freshwater lake beachrock and in some travertine samples. The calcite crystals are elongate parallel to the c-optic axis, and are composed of bunches of crystallite blades. The crystallite blades of each crystal bunchmore » are pointed and are more bladed than freshwater cement crystals. The intercrystallite pore space contains no fine calcite silt as was observed in the lake samples. Fresh water provided by rainfall may be held in the pore spaces and bounded to the quartz-grain surfaces by ionic attraction. Marine spray above and saline water concentrated underneath from a sandwich effect at the micropore level, allowing rapid growth and precipitation of these very unusual calcite crystals in a single-phase low-salinity fluid.« less

Not Out of Control: Analysis of the Federal Disaster Spending Trend

DTIC Science & Technology

2016-03-01

included heavy rain, excessive rainfall, tropical storms, hurricanes, flooding, coastal flooding, wind, straight line winds, high winds, tornadoes ...straight line winds, tornadoes , high winds, coastal flooding, soil saturation, and mud flow.174 Despite the high number of severe storm declarations over

Anomalous High Rainfall and Soil Saturation as Combined Risk Indicator of Rift Valley Fever Outbreaks, South Africa, 2008–2011

PubMed Central

Malherbe, Johan; Weepener, Harold; Majiwa, Phelix; Swanepoel, Robert

2016-01-01

Rift Valley fever (RVF), a zoonotic vectorborne viral disease, causes loss of life among humans and livestock and an adverse effect on the economy of affected countries. Vaccination is the most effective way to protect livestock; however, during protracted interepidemic periods, farmers discontinue vaccination, which leads to loss of herd immunity and heavy losses of livestock when subsequent outbreaks occur. Retrospective analysis of the 2008–2011 RVF epidemics in South Africa revealed a pattern of continuous and widespread seasonal rainfall causing substantial soil saturation followed by explicit rainfall events that flooded dambos (seasonally flooded depressions), triggering outbreaks of disease. Incorporation of rainfall and soil saturation data into a prediction model for major outbreaks of RVF resulted in the correctly identified risk in nearly 90% of instances at least 1 month before outbreaks occurred; all indications are that irrigation is of major importance in the remaining 10% of outbreaks. PMID:27403563

On the unseasonal flooding over the Central United States during December 2015 and January 2016

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, Wei; Villarini, Gabriele

2017-11-01

The unseasonal winter heavy rainfall and flooding that occurred during December 2015-January 2016 had large socio-economic impacts for the central United States. Here we examine the climatic conditions that led to the observed extreme precipitation, and compare and contrast them with the 1982/1983 and 2011/2012 winters. The large precipitation amounts associated with the 1982/1983 and 2015/2016 winter flooding were linked to the strongly positive North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), with large moisture transported from the Gulf of Mexico. The anomalous upper-level trough in the 1982- and 2015- Decembers over the western United States was also favorable for strong precipitation by leading the cold front over the central United States. In contrast, the extremely positive NAO in December 2011 did not lead to heavy rainfall and flooding because the Azores High center shifted too far westward (like a blocking high) preventing moisture from moving towards the central and southeastern United States.

Flooding on California's Russian River: Role of atmospheric rivers

USGS Publications Warehouse

Ralph, F.M.; Neiman, P.J.; Wick, G.A.; Gutman, S.I.; Dettinger, M.D.; Cayan, D.R.; White, A.B.

2006-01-01

Experimental observations collected during meteorological field studies conducted by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration near the Russian River of coastal northern California are combined with SSM/I satellite observations offshore to examine the role of landfalling atmospheric rivers in the creation of flooding. While recent studies have documented the characteristics and importance of narrow regions of strong meridional water vapor transport over the eastern Pacific Ocean (recently referred to as atmospheric rivers), this study describes their impact when they strike the U.S. West Coast. A detailed case study is presented, along with an assessment of all 7 floods on the Russian River since the experimental data were first available in October 1997. In all 7 floods, atmospheric river conditions were present and caused heavy rainfall through orographic precipitation. Not only do atmospheric rivers play a crucial role in the global water budget, they can also lead to heavy coastal rainfall and flooding, and thus represent a key phenomenon linkingweather and climate. Copyright 2006 by the American Geophysical Union.

Characterization and source identification of organic matter in view of land uses and heavy rainfall in the Lake Shihwa, Korea.

PubMed

Lee, Yeonjung; Hur, Jin; Shin, Kyung-Hoon

2014-07-15

The characteristics and sources of organic matter in water of the Lake Shihwa, which receives inputs from rural, urban, and industrial areas, were evaluated by examining the biodegradable organic carbon concentration, fluorescence spectra, and carbon and nitrogen isotope ratios, especially during rainy season and dry season. The organic matter transported from rural areas was of refractory nature, while that of industrial origin decomposed rapidly. As compared to the dry season, the organic matter in the rainy season was characterized by a reduced labile fraction. During the dry season, the autochthonous organic matter dominated in the lake, however, the contributions of allochthonous organic sources by industrial and rural areas significantly increased at rainy season. This investigation revealed that the transport of organic matter of anthropogenic origin to the Lake Shihwa was mainly influenced by heavy rainfall. Moreover, each anthropogenic source could differently influence the occurrence of organic matter in water of the Lake Shihwa. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Effect of heavy rain to the total received power

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Iguchi, Toshio

1994-01-01

If the average power at the receiver is substantially reduced by heavy rain, the AGC (automatic gain control) circuit of the rain gauge will try to compensate this reduction by increasing the gain. If this happens, then the pulses created by rain drops are amplified more than they should be and the rainfall rate may be overestimated. If the effective diameter (blocking efficiency) of a particle is 2 mm and if the beam width is 2 cm, each particle will reduce the received power by 10 percent when it crosses the beam. Since the beam is blocked by water drops 75 percent of the total time according to the above calculation, the total received power may be reduced by 7.5 percent. To compensate this reduction to the reference value, the gain of amplifier will be increased by 8.1 percent. This increase of gain will increase all pulse sizes by the same fraction and result in the overestimate of the rainfall rate.

Interannual variability of Indian monsoon rainfall

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Paolino, D. A.; Shukla, J.

1984-01-01

The interannual variability of the Indian summer monsoon and its relationships with other atmospheric fluctuations were studied in hopes of gaining some insight into the predicability of the rainfall. Rainfall data for 31 meteorological subdivisions over India were provided by the India Meteorological Department (IMD). Fifty-three years of seasonal mean anomaly sea-level pressure (SLP) fields were used to determine if any relationships could be detected between fluctuations in Northern Hemisphere surface pressure and Indian monsoon rainfall. Three month running mean sea-level pressure anomalies at Darwin (close to one of the centers of the Southern Oscillation) were compiled for months preceding and following extreme years for rainfall averaged over all of India. Anomalies are small before the monsoon, but are quite large in months following the summer season. However, there is a large decrease in Darwin pressure for months preceding a heavy monsoon, while a deficient monsoon is preceded by a sharp increase in Darwin pressure. If a time series is constructed of the tendency of Darwin SLP between the Northern Hemisphere winter (DJF) and spring (MAM) and a correlation coefficient is computed between it and 81 years of rainfall average over all of India, one gets a C. C. of -.46, which is higher than any other previously computed predictor of the monsoon rainfall. This relationship can also be used to make a qualitative forecast for rainfall over the whole of India by considering the sign of the tendency in extreme monsoon years.

Contribution of coarse particles from road surfaces to dissolved and particle-bound heavy metal loads in runoff: A laboratory leaching study with synthetic stormwater.

PubMed

Borris, Matthias; Österlund, Heléne; Marsalek, Jiri; Viklander, Maria

2016-12-15

Laboratory leaching experiments were performed to study the potential of coarse street sediments (i.e. >250μm) to release dissolved and particulate-bound heavy metals (i.e. Cd, Cr, Cu, Ni, Pb and Zn) during rainfall/runoff. Towards this end, street sediments were sampled by vacuuming at seven sites in five Swedish cities and the collected sediments were characterized with respect to their physical and chemical properties. In the laboratory, the sediments were combined with synthetic rainwater and subject to agitation by a shaker mimicking particle motion during transport by runoff from street surfaces. As a result of such action, coarse street sediments were found to release significant amounts of heavy metals, which were predominantly (up to 99%) in the particulate bound phase. Thus, in dry weather, coarse street sediments functioned as collectors of fine particles with attached heavy metals, but in wet weather, metal burdens were released by rainfall/runoff processes. The magnitude of such releases depended on the site characteristics (i.e. street cleaning and traffic intensity), particle properties (i.e. organic matter content), and runoff characteristics (pH, and the duration of, and energy input into, sediment/water agitation). The study findings suggest that street cleaning, which preferentially removes coarser sediments, may produce additional environmental benefits by also removing fine contaminated particles attached to coarser materials. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Effect of radar rainfall time resolution on the predictive capability of a distributed hydrologic model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Atencia, A.; Llasat, M. C.; Garrote, L.; Mediero, L.

2010-10-01

The performance of distributed hydrological models depends on the resolution, both spatial and temporal, of the rainfall surface data introduced. The estimation of quantitative precipitation from meteorological radar or satellite can improve hydrological model results, thanks to an indirect estimation at higher spatial and temporal resolution. In this work, composed radar data from a network of three C-band radars, with 6-minutal temporal and 2 × 2 km2 spatial resolution, provided by the Catalan Meteorological Service, is used to feed the RIBS distributed hydrological model. A Window Probability Matching Method (gage-adjustment method) is applied to four cases of heavy rainfall to improve the observed rainfall sub-estimation in both convective and stratiform Z/R relations used over Catalonia. Once the rainfall field has been adequately obtained, an advection correction, based on cross-correlation between two consecutive images, was introduced to get several time resolutions from 1 min to 30 min. Each different resolution is treated as an independent event, resulting in a probable range of input rainfall data. This ensemble of rainfall data is used, together with other sources of uncertainty, such as the initial basin state or the accuracy of discharge measurements, to calibrate the RIBS model using probabilistic methodology. A sensitivity analysis of time resolutions was implemented by comparing the various results with real values from stream-flow measurement stations.

Blow me down: A new perspective on Aloe dichotoma mortality from windthrow

PubMed Central

2014-01-01

Background Windthrow, the uprooting of trees during storms associated with strong winds, is a well-established cause of mortality in temperate regions of the world, often with large ecological consequences. However, this phenomenon has received little attention within arid regions and is not well documented in southern Africa. Slow rates of post-disturbance recovery and projected increases in extreme weather events in arid areas mean that windthrow could be more common and have bigger impacts on these ecosystems in the future. This is of concern due to slow rates of post-disturbance recovery in arid systems and projected increases in extreme weather events in these areas. This study investigated the spatial pattern, magnitude and likely causes of windthrown mortality in relation to other forms of mortality in Aloe dichotoma, an iconic arid-adapted arborescent succulent and southern Africa climate change indicator species. Results We found that windthrown mortality was greatest within the equatorward summer rainfall zone (SRZ) of its distribution (mean = 31%, n = 11), and was derived almost exclusively from the larger adult age class. A logistic modelling exercise indicated that windthrown mortality was strongly associated with greater amounts of warm season (summer) rainfall in the SRZ, higher wind speeds, and leptosols. A statistically significant interaction term between higher summer rainfall and wind speeds further increased the odds of being windthrown. While these results would benefit from improvements in the resolution of wind and substrate data, they do support the hypothesised mechanism for windthrow in A. dichotoma. This involves powerful storm gusts associated with either the current or subsequent rainfall event, heavy convective rainfall, and an associated increase in soil malleability. Shallow rooting depths in gravel-rich soils and an inflexible, top-heavy canopy structure make individuals especially prone to windthrown mortality during storms. Conclusions Results highlight the importance of this previously unrecognised form of mortality in A. dichotoma, especially since it seems to disproportionately affect reproductively mature adult individuals in an infrequently recruiting species. Smaller, more geographically isolated and adult dominated populations in the summer rainfall zone are likely to be more vulnerable to localised extinction due to windthrow events. PMID:24641794

Blow me down: a new perspective on Aloe dichotoma mortality from windthrow.

PubMed

Jack, Samuel Linton; Hoffman, Michael Timm; Rohde, Rick Frederick; Durbach, Ian; Archibald, Margaret

2014-03-18

Windthrow, the uprooting of trees during storms associated with strong winds, is a well-established cause of mortality in temperate regions of the world, often with large ecological consequences. However, this phenomenon has received little attention within arid regions and is not well documented in southern Africa. Slow rates of post-disturbance recovery and projected increases in extreme weather events in arid areas mean that windthrow could be more common and have bigger impacts on these ecosystems in the future. This is of concern due to slow rates of post-disturbance recovery in arid systems and projected increases in extreme weather events in these areas. This study investigated the spatial pattern, magnitude and likely causes of windthrown mortality in relation to other forms of mortality in Aloe dichotoma, an iconic arid-adapted arborescent succulent and southern Africa climate change indicator species. We found that windthrown mortality was greatest within the equatorward summer rainfall zone (SRZ) of its distribution (mean = 31%, n = 11), and was derived almost exclusively from the larger adult age class. A logistic modelling exercise indicated that windthrown mortality was strongly associated with greater amounts of warm season (summer) rainfall in the SRZ, higher wind speeds, and leptosols. A statistically significant interaction term between higher summer rainfall and wind speeds further increased the odds of being windthrown. While these results would benefit from improvements in the resolution of wind and substrate data, they do support the hypothesised mechanism for windthrow in A. dichotoma. This involves powerful storm gusts associated with either the current or subsequent rainfall event, heavy convective rainfall, and an associated increase in soil malleability. Shallow rooting depths in gravel-rich soils and an inflexible, top-heavy canopy structure make individuals especially prone to windthrown mortality during storms. Results highlight the importance of this previously unrecognised form of mortality in A. dichotoma, especially since it seems to disproportionately affect reproductively mature adult individuals in an infrequently recruiting species. Smaller, more geographically isolated and adult dominated populations in the summer rainfall zone are likely to be more vulnerable to localised extinction due to windthrow events.

Characterisation of flooding in Alexandria in October 2015 and suggested mitigating measures

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bhattacharya, Biswa; Zevenbergen, Chris; Wahaab, R. A. Wahaab R. A.; Elbarki, W. A. I. Elbarki W. A. I.; Busker, T. Busker T.; Salinas Rodriguez, C. N. A. Salinas Rodriguez C. N. A.

2017-04-01

In October 2015 Alexandria (Egypt) experienced exceptional flooding. The flooding was caused by heavy rainfall in a short period of time in a city which normally does not receive a large amount of rainfall. The heavy rainfall caused a tremendous volume of runoff, which the city's drainage system was unable to drain off to the Mediterranean Sea. Seven people have died due to the flood, and there were huge direct and indirect damages. The city does not have a flood forecasting system. An analysis with rainfall forecast from the European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecast (ECMWF) showed that the extreme rainfall could have been forecasted about a week back. Naturally, if a flood forecasting model was in place the flooding could have been predicted well in advance. Alexandria, along with several other Arab cities, are not prepared at all for natural hazards. Preparedness actions leading to improved adaptation and resilience are not in place. The situation is being further exacerbated with rapid urbanisation and climate change. The local authorities estimate that about 30000 new buildings have been (illegally) constructed during the last five years at a location near the main pumping station (Max Point). This issue may have a very serious adverse effect on hydrology and requires further study to estimate the additional runoff from the newly urbanised areas. The World Bank has listed Alexandria as one of the five coastal cities, which may have very significant risk of coastal flooding due to the climate change. Setting up of a flood forecasting model along with an evidence-based research on the drainage system's capacity is seen as immediate actions that can significantly improve the preparedness of the city towards flooding. Furthermore, the region has got a number of large lakes, which potentially can be used to store extra water as a flood mitigation measure. Two water bodies, namely the Maryot Lake and the Airport Lake, are identified from which water can be pumped out in advance to keep storage available in case of flooding. Keywords: Alexandria, flood, Egypt, rainfall, forecasting.

Landsliding and flooding event triggered by heavy rains in the Rize region

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yalcin, Ali; Kavurmaci, M. Murat

2013-04-01

Rize province has been significantly damaged by frequent landslides and floods which are caused by severe rainfalls and result in many casualties. The area is prone to landslides because of the climate conditions, geologic, and land cover characteristics of the region. The most recent landslide occurred on August 26, 2010 in Gundogdu town. The landslides have caused large numbers of casualties and huge economic losses in the region. Thirteen people died, twenty houses collapsed, more than a hundred houses damaged, and one hundred fifty vehicles were damaged in the Gundogdu landslide. Flood event is often seen in the region of Rize, due to continuous rainfall. Floods cause huge loss of life and property in this region. Rainfall is the most frequent landslide-triggering factor in East Black Sea region, Turkey, especially Rize region. Rize is the rainiest city of Turkey. Total annual precipitation is over 2300 mm, and precipitation is equally distributed in each month. However, in August 26, 166.5 mm precipitation rained within 24 hours in the region and this rainstorm caused great damage. The intensity rainfall periods were become as an indicator of landslide activity. It is very important that the presence of suitable lithologic units for occurring landslides. There are appropriate materials to contributed constitution of landslides in the study area; completely weathered dacite. In addition, intensity land cover types as tea plantations have been blocked surface flows and rainfall is able to quickly penetrate into the soil through open tension cracks that appear in the landslide head and in stretching zones. According to the results of the analysis, the study area has been overlaid tea garden 70 % percentage approximately. Furthermore, the landslide risks have increased by devastation of land cover in this region. In this region, over-steepened slopes, slope saturation in areas of heavy rainfall, and removal of slope vegetation can also increase landslide potential. The combination of all these effects have been affected to the settlement areas and living people in the study area. In this study, the effects of all the factors were separately examined on landslides.

Extreme Precipitation and Emergency Room Visits for Gastrointestinal Illness in Areas with and without Combined Sewer Systems: An Analysis of Massachusetts Data, 2003–2007

PubMed Central

Li, Quanlin; Wang, Shiliang; Messier, Kyle P.; Wade, Timothy J.; Hilborn, Elizabeth D.

2015-01-01

Background Combined sewer overflows (CSOs) occur in combined sewer systems when sewage and stormwater runoff are released into water bodies, potentially contaminating water sources. CSOs are often caused by heavy precipitation and are expected to increase with increasing extreme precipitation associated with climate change. Objectives The aim of this study was to assess whether the association between heavy rainfall and rate of emergency room (ER) visits for gastrointestinal (GI) illness differed in the presence of CSOs. Methods For the study period 2003–2007, time series of daily rate of ER visits for GI illness and meteorological data were organized for three exposure regions: a) CSOs impacting drinking water sources, b) CSOs impacting recreational waters, c) no CSOs. A distributed lag Poisson regression assessed cumulative effects for an 8-day lag period following heavy (≥ 90th and ≥ 95th percentile) and extreme (≥ 99th percentile) precipitation events, controlling for temperature and long-term time trends. Results The association between extreme rainfall and rate of ER visits for GI illness differed among regions. Only the region with drinking water exposed to CSOs demonstrated a significant increased cumulative risk for rate (CRR) of ER visits for GI for all ages in the 8-day period following extreme rainfall: CRR: 1.13 (95% CI: 1.00, 1.28) compared with no rainfall. Conclusions The rate of ER visits for GI illness was associated with extreme precipitation in the area with CSO discharges to a drinking water source. Our findings suggest an increased risk for GI illness among consumers whose drinking water source may be impacted by CSOs after extreme precipitation. Citation Jagai JS, Li Q, Wang S, Messier KP, Wade TJ, Hilborn ED. 2015. Extreme precipitation and emergency room visits for gastrointestinal illness in areas with and without combined sewer systems: an analysis of Massachusetts data, 2003–2007. Environ Health Perspect 123:873–879; http://dx.doi.org/10.1289/ehp.1408971 PMID:25855939

Uncertainties in TRMM-Era multisatellite-based tropical rainfall estimates over the Maritime Continent

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rauniyar, S. P.; Protat, A.; Kanamori, H.

2017-05-01

This study investigates the regional and seasonal rainfall rate retrieval uncertainties within nine state-of-the-art satellite-based rainfall products over the Maritime Continent (MC) region. The results show consistently larger differences in mean daily rainfall among products over land, especially over mountains and along coasts, compared to over ocean, by about 20% for low to medium rain rates and 5% for heavy rain rates. However, rainfall differences among the products do not exhibit any seasonal dependency over both surface types (land and ocean) of the MC region. The differences between products largely depends on the rain rate itself, with a factor 2 difference for light rain and 30% for intermediate and high rain rates over ocean. The rain-rate products dominated by microwave measurements showed less spread among themselves over ocean compared to the products dominated by infrared measurements. Conversely, over land, the rain gauge-adjusted post-real-time products dominated by microwave measurements produced the largest spreads, due to the usage of different gauge analyses for the bias corrections. Intercomparisons of rainfall characteristics of these products revealed large discrepancies in detecting the frequency and intensity of rainfall. These satellite products are finally evaluated at subdaily, daily, monthly, intraseasonal, and seasonal temporal scales against high-quality gridded rainfall observations in the Sarawak (Malaysia) region for the 4 year period 2000-2003. No single satellite-based rainfall product clearly outperforms the other products at all temporal scales. General guidelines are provided for selecting a product that could be best suited for a particular application and/or temporal resolution.

Debris Flows and Record Floods from Extreme Mesoscale Convective Thunderstorms over the Santa Catalina Mountains, Arizona

USGS Publications Warehouse

Magirl, Christopher S.; Shoemaker, Craig; Webb, Robert H.; Schaffner, Mike; Griffiths, Peter G.; Pytlak, Erik

2007-01-01

Ample geologic evidence indicates early Holocene and Pleistocene debris flows from the south side of the Santa Catalina Mountains north of Tucson, Arizona, but few records document historical events. On July 31, 2006, an unusual set of atmospheric conditions aligned to produce record floods and an unprecedented number of debris flows in the Santa Catalinas. During the week prior to the event, an upper-level area of low pressure centered near Albuquerque, New Mexico generated widespread heavy rainfall in southern Arizona. After midnight on July 31, a strong complex of thunderstorms developed over central Arizona in a deformation zone that formed on the back side of the upper-level low. High atmospheric moisture (2.00' of precipitable water) coupled with cooling aloft spawned a mesoscale thunderstorm complex that moved southeast into the Tucson basin. A 15-20 knot low-level southwesterly wind developed with a significant upslope component over the south face of the Santa Catalina Mountains advecting moist and unstable air into the merging storms. National Weather Service radar indicated that a swath of 3-6' of rainfall occurred over the lower and middle elevations of the southern Santa Catalina Mountains. This intense rain falling on saturated soil triggered over 250 hillslope failures and debris flows throughout the mountain range. Sabino Canyon, a heavily used recreation area administered by the U.S. Forest Service, was the epicenter of mass wasting, where at least 18 debris flows removed structures, destroyed the roadway in multiple locations, and closed public access for months. The debris flows were followed by streamflow floods which eclipsed the record discharge in the 75-year gaging record of Sabino Creek. In five canyons adjacent to Sabino Canyon, debris flows approached or excited the mountain front, compromising floow conveyance structures and flooding some homes.

Observation of unusual topological surface states in half-Heusler compounds LnPtBi (Ln=Lu, Y)

DOE PAGES

Liu, Z. K.; Yang, L. X.; Wu, S. -C.; ...

2016-09-27

Topological quantum materials represent a new class of matter with both exotic physical phenomena and novel application potentials. Many Heusler compounds, which exhibit rich emergent properties such as unusual magnetism, superconductivity and heavy fermion behaviour, have been predicted to host non-trivial topological electronic structures. The coexistence of topological order and other unusual properties makes Heusler materials ideal platform to search for new topological quantum phases (such as quantum anomalous Hall insulator and topological superconductor). By carrying out angle-resolved photoemission spectroscopy and ab initio calculations on rare-earth half-Heusler compounds LnPtBi (Ln=Lu, Y), we directly observe the unusual topological surface states onmore » these materials, establishing them as first members with non-trivial topological electronic structure in this class of materials. Moreover, as LnPtBi compounds are non-centrosymmetric superconductors, our discovery further highlights them as promising candidates of topological superconductors.« less

Observation of unusual topological surface states in half-Heusler compounds LnPtBi (Ln=Lu, Y)

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Liu, Z. K.; Yang, L. X.; Wu, S. -C.

Topological quantum materials represent a new class of matter with both exotic physical phenomena and novel application potentials. Many Heusler compounds, which exhibit rich emergent properties such as unusual magnetism, superconductivity and heavy fermion behaviour, have been predicted to host non-trivial topological electronic structures. The coexistence of topological order and other unusual properties makes Heusler materials ideal platform to search for new topological quantum phases (such as quantum anomalous Hall insulator and topological superconductor). By carrying out angle-resolved photoemission spectroscopy and ab initio calculations on rare-earth half-Heusler compounds LnPtBi (Ln=Lu, Y), we directly observe the unusual topological surface states onmore » these materials, establishing them as first members with non-trivial topological electronic structure in this class of materials. Moreover, as LnPtBi compounds are non-centrosymmetric superconductors, our discovery further highlights them as promising candidates of topological superconductors.« less

Assessment of Vulnerability to Extreme Flash Floods in Design Storms

PubMed Central

Kim, Eung Seok; Choi, Hyun Il

2011-01-01

There has been an increase in the occurrence of sudden local flooding of great volume and short duration caused by heavy or excessive rainfall intensity over a small area, which presents the greatest potential danger threat to the natural environment, human life, public health and property, etc. Such flash floods have rapid runoff and debris flow that rises quickly with little or no advance warning to prevent flood damage. This study develops a flash flood index through the average of the same scale relative severity factors quantifying characteristics of hydrographs generated from a rainfall-runoff model for the long-term observed rainfall data in a small ungauged study basin, and presents regression equations between rainfall characteristics and the flash flood index. The aim of this study is to develop flash flood index-duration-frequency relation curves by combining the rainfall intensity-duration-frequency relation and the flash flood index from probability rainfall data in order to evaluate vulnerability to extreme flash floods in design storms. This study is an initial effort to quantify the flash flood severity of design storms for both existing and planned flood control facilities to cope with residual flood risks due to extreme flash floods that have ocurred frequently in recent years. PMID:21845165

Assessment of vulnerability to extreme flash floods in design storms.

PubMed

Kim, Eung Seok; Choi, Hyun Il

2011-07-01

There has been an increase in the occurrence of sudden local flooding of great volume and short duration caused by heavy or excessive rainfall intensity over a small area, which presents the greatest potential danger threat to the natural environment, human life, public health and property, etc. Such flash floods have rapid runoff and debris flow that rises quickly with little or no advance warning to prevent flood damage. This study develops a flash flood index through the average of the same scale relative severity factors quantifying characteristics of hydrographs generated from a rainfall-runoff model for the long-term observed rainfall data in a small ungauged study basin, and presents regression equations between rainfall characteristics and the flash flood index. The aim of this study is to develop flash flood index-duration-frequency relation curves by combining the rainfall intensity-duration-frequency relation and the flash flood index from probability rainfall data in order to evaluate vulnerability to extreme flash floods in design storms. This study is an initial effort to quantify the flash flood severity of design storms for both existing and planned flood control facilities to cope with residual flood risks due to extreme flash floods that have ocurred frequently in recent years.

How effective is the new generation of GPM satellite precipitation in characterizing the rainfall variability over Malaysia?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mahmud, Mohd Rizaludin; Hashim, Mazlan; Reba, Mohd Nadzri Mohd

2017-08-01

We investigated the potential of the new generation of satellite precipitation product from the Global Precipitation Mission (GPM) to characterize the rainfall in Malaysia. Most satellite precipitation products have limited ability to precisely characterize the high dynamic rainfall variation that occurred at both time and scale in this humid tropical region due to the coarse grid size to meet the physical condition of the smaller land size, sub-continent and islands. Prior to the status quo, an improved satellite precipitation was required to accurately measure the rainfall and its distribution. Subsequently, the newly released of GPM precipitation product at half-hourly and 0.1° resolution served an opportunity to anticipate the aforementioned conflict. Nevertheless, related evidence was not found and therefore, this study made an initiative to fill the gap. A total of 843 rain gauges over east (Borneo) and west Malaysia (Peninsular) were used to evaluate the rainfall the GPM rainfall data. The assessment covered all critical rainy seasons which associated with Asian Monsoon including northeast (Nov. - Feb.), southwest (May - Aug.) and their subsequent inter-monsoon period (Mar. - Apr. & Sep. - Oct.). The ability of GPM to provide quantitative rainfall estimates and qualitative spatial rainfall patterns were analysed. Our results showed that the GPM had good capacity to depict the spatial rainfall patterns in less heterogeneous rainfall patterns (Spearman's correlation, 0.591 to 0.891) compared to the clustered one (r = 0.368 to 0.721). Rainfall intensity and spatial heterogeneity that is largely driven by seasonal monsoon has significant influence on GPM ability to resolve local rainfall patterns. In quantitative rainfall estimation, large errors can be primarily associated with the rainfall intensity increment. 77% of the error variation can be explained through rainfall intensity particularly the high intensity (> 35 mm d-1). A strong relationship between GPM rainfall and error was found from heavy ( 35 mm d-1) to violent rain (160 mm d-1). The output of this study provides reference regarding the performance of GPM data for respective hydrology studies in this region.

Prognostic Aspects of Sub-seasonal Rainfall Characteristics using the Outputs of General Circulation Model: An Application of Statistical Downscaling and Temporal Disaggregation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Singh, A.; Mohanty, U. C.; Ghosh, K.

2015-12-01

Most regions of India experience varied rainfall duration during the southwest monsoon, changes in which exhibit major impact not only agriculture, but also other sectors like hydrology, agriculture, food and fodder storage etc. In addition, changes in sub-seasonal rainfall characteristics highly impact the rice production. As part of the endeavor seasonal climate outlook, as well as information for weather within climate may be helpful for advance planning and risk management in agriculture. The General Circulation Model (GCM) provide an alternative to gather information for weather within climate but variability is very low in comparison to observation. On the other hand, the spatial resolution of GCM predicted rainfall is not found at the observed station/grid point. To tackle the problem, initially a statistical downscaling over 19 station of Odisha state is undertaken using the atmospheric parameters predicted by a GCM (NCEP-CFSv2). For the purpose, an extended domain is taken for analyzing the significant zone for the atmospheric parameters like zonal wind at 850hPa, Sea Surface Temperature (SST), geopotential height. A statistical model using the pattern projection method is further developed based on empirical orthogonal function. The downscaled rainfall is found better in association with station observation in comparison to raw GCM prediction in view of deterministic and probabilistic skill measure. Further, the sub-seasonal and seasonal forecast from the GCMs can be used at different time steps for risk management. Therefore, downscaled seasonal/monthly rainfall is further converted to sub-seasonal/daily time scale using a non-homogeneous markov model. The simulated weather sequences are further compared with the observed sequence in view of categorical rainfall events. The outcomes suggest that the rainfall amount are overestimated for excess rainfall and henceforth larger excess rainfall events can be realized. The skill for prediction of rainfall events corresponding to lower thresholds is found higher. A detail discussion regarding skill of spatial downscale rainfall at observed stations and its further representation of sub-seasonal characteristics (spells, less rainfall, heavy rainfall, and moderate rainfall events) of rainfall for disaggregated outputs will be presented.

Rainfall simulation in education

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Peters, Piet; Baartman, Jantiene; Gooren, Harm; Keesstra, Saskia

2016-04-01

Rainfall simulation has become an important method for the assessment of soil erosion and soil hydrological processes. For students, rainfall simulation offers an year-round, attractive and active way of experiencing water erosion, while not being dependent on (outdoors) weather conditions. Moreover, using rainfall simulation devices, they can play around with different conditions, including rainfall duration, intensity, soil type, soil cover, soil and water conservation measures, etc. and evaluate their effect on erosion and sediment transport. Rainfall simulators differ in design and scale. At Wageningen University, both BSc and MSc student of the curriculum 'International Land and Water Management' work with different types of rainfall simulation devices in three courses: - A mini rainfall simulator (0.0625m2) is used in the BSc level course 'Introduction to Land Degradation and Remediation'. Groups of students take the mini rainfall simulator with them to a nearby field location and test it for different soil types, varying from clay to more sandy, slope angles and vegetation or litter cover. The groups decide among themselves which factors they want to test and they compare their results and discuss advantage and disadvantage of the mini-rainfall simulator. - A medium sized rainfall simulator (0.238 m2) is used in the MSc level course 'Sustainable Land and Water Management', which is a field practical in Eastern Spain. In this course, a group of students has to develop their own research project and design their field measurement campaign using the transportable rainfall simulator. - Wageningen University has its own large rainfall simulation laboratory, in which a 15 m2 rainfall simulation facility is available for research. In the BSc level course 'Land and Water Engineering' Student groups will build slopes in the rainfall simulator in specially prepared containers. Aim is to experience the behaviour of different soil types or slope angles when (heavy) rain occurs. The MSc level course 'Fundamentals of Land Management' students carry out a hands-on practical in which they compare soil type and design and evaluate the effect of soil and water conservation measures. Also, MSc thesis research is being carried out using this facility. For instance, the distribution and movement of pesticide Glyphosate with sediment transportation was being quantified using the rainfall simulation facility.

A Probabilistic Analysis of Surface Water Flood Risk in London.

PubMed

Jenkins, Katie; Hall, Jim; Glenis, Vassilis; Kilsby, Chris

2018-06-01

Flooding in urban areas during heavy rainfall, often characterized by short duration and high-intensity events, is known as "surface water flooding." Analyzing surface water flood risk is complex as it requires understanding of biophysical and human factors, such as the localized scale and nature of heavy precipitation events, characteristics of the urban area affected (including detailed topography and drainage networks), and the spatial distribution of economic and social vulnerability. Climate change is recognized as having the potential to enhance the intensity and frequency of heavy rainfall events. This study develops a methodology to link high spatial resolution probabilistic projections of hourly precipitation with detailed surface water flood depth maps and characterization of urban vulnerability to estimate surface water flood risk. It incorporates probabilistic information on the range of uncertainties in future precipitation in a changing climate. The method is applied to a case study of Greater London and highlights that both the frequency and spatial extent of surface water flood events are set to increase under future climate change. The expected annual damage from surface water flooding is estimated to be to be £171 million, £343 million, and £390 million/year under the baseline, 2030 high, and 2050 high climate change scenarios, respectively. © 2017 Society for Risk Analysis.

Characteristics of Precipitation, Cloud, and Latent Heating Associated with the Madden-Julian Oscillation

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lau, K-M.; Wu, H-T.

2010-01-01

This study investigates the evolution of cloud and rainfall structures associated with Madden Julian oscillation (MJO) using Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) data. Two complementary indices are used to define MJO phases. Joint probability distribution functions (PDFs) of cloud-top temperature and radar echo-top height are constructed for each of the eight MJO phases. The genesis stage of MJO convection over the western Pacific (phases 1 and 2) features a bottom-heavy PDF, characterized by abundant warm rain, low clouds, suppressed deep convection, and higher sea surface temperature (SST). As MJO convection develops (phases 3 and 4), a transition from the bottom-heavy to top-heavy PDF occurs. The latter is associated with the development of mixed-phase rain and middle-to-high clouds, coupled with rapid SST cooling. At the MJO convection peak (phase 5), a top-heavy PDF contributed by deep convection with mixed-phase and ice-phase rain and high echo-top heights (greater than 5 km) dominates. The decaying stage (phases 6 and 7) is characterized by suppressed SST, reduced total rain, increased contribution from stratiform rain, and increased nonraining high clouds. Phase 7, in particular, signals the beginning of a return to higher SST and increased warm rain. Phase 8 completes the MJO cycle, returning to a bottom-heavy PDF and SST conditions similar to phase 1. The structural changes in rain and clouds at different phases of MJO are consistent with corresponding changes in derived latent heating profiles, suggesting the importance of a diverse mix of warm, mixed-phase, and ice-phase rain associated with low-level, congestus, and high clouds in constituting the life cycle and the time scales of MJO.

Heavy Tail Behavior of Rainfall Extremes across Germany

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Castellarin, A.; Kreibich, H.; Vorogushyn, S.; Merz, B.

2017-12-01

Distributions are termed heavy-tailed if extreme values are more likely than would be predicted by probability distributions that have exponential asymptotic behavior. Heavy-tail behavior often leads to surprise, because historical observations can be a poor guide for the future. Heavy-tail behavior seems to be widespread for hydro-meteorological extremes, such as extreme rainfall and flood events. To date there have been only vague hints to explain under which conditions these extremes show heavy-tail behavior. We use an observational data set consisting of 11 climate variables at 1440 stations across Germany. This homogenized, gap-free data set covers 110 years (1901-2010) at daily resolution. We estimate the upper tail behavior, including its uncertainty interval, of daily precipitation extremes for the 1,440 stations at the annual and seasonal time scales. Different tail indicators are tested, including the shape parameter of the Generalized Extreme Value distribution, the upper tail ratio and the obesity index. In a further step, we explore to which extent the tail behavior can be explained by geographical and climate factors. A large number of characteristics is derived, such as station elevation, degree of continentality, aridity, measures for quantifying the variability of humidity and wind velocity, or event-triggering large-scale atmospheric situation. The link between the upper tail behavior and these characteristics is investigated via data mining methods capable of detecting non-linear relationships in large data sets. This exceptionally rich observational data set, in terms of number of stations, length of time series and number of explaining variables, allows insights into the upper tail behavior which is rarely possible given the typical observational data sets available.

Rapid Proliferation of Vibrio parahaemolyticus, Vibrio vulnificus, and Vibrio cholerae during Freshwater Flash Floods in French Mediterranean Coastal Lagoons

PubMed Central

Esteves, Kevin; Hervio-Heath, Dominique; Mosser, Thomas; Rodier, Claire; Tournoud, Marie-George; Jumas-Bilak, Estelle; Colwell, Rita R.

2015-01-01

Vibrio parahaemolyticus, Vibrio vulnificus, and Vibrio cholerae of the non-O1/non-O139 serotype are present in coastal lagoons of southern France. In these Mediterranean regions, the rivers have long low-flow periods followed by short-duration or flash floods during and after heavy intense rainstorms, particularly at the end of the summer and in autumn. These floods bring large volumes of freshwater into the lagoons, reducing their salinity. Water temperatures recorded during sampling (15 to 24°C) were favorable for the presence and multiplication of vibrios. In autumn 2011, before heavy rainfalls and flash floods, salinities ranged from 31.4 to 36.1‰ and concentrations of V. parahaemolyticus, V. vulnificus, and V. cholerae varied from 0 to 1.5 × 103 most probable number (MPN)/liter, 0.7 to 2.1 × 103 MPN/liter, and 0 to 93 MPN/liter, respectively. Following heavy rainstorms that generated severe flash flooding and heavy discharge of freshwater, salinity decreased, reaching 2.2 to 16.4‰ within 15 days, depending on the site, with a concomitant increase in Vibrio concentration to ca. 104 MPN/liter. The highest concentrations were reached with salinities between 10 and 20‰ for V. parahaemolyticus, 10 and 15‰ for V. vulnificus, and 5 and 12‰ for V. cholerae. Thus, an abrupt decrease in salinity caused by heavy rainfall and major flooding favored growth of human-pathogenic Vibrio spp. and their proliferation in the Languedocian lagoons. Based on these results, it is recommended that temperature and salinity monitoring be done to predict the presence of these Vibrio spp. in shellfish-harvesting areas of the lagoons. PMID:26319881

High-resolution precipitation data derived from dynamical downscaling using the WRF model for the Heihe River Basin, northwest China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, Xuezhen; Xiong, Zhe; Zheng, Jingyun; Ge, Quansheng

2018-02-01

The community of climate change impact assessments and adaptations research needs regional high-resolution (spatial) meteorological data. This study produced two downscaled precipitation datasets with spatial resolutions of as high as 3 km by 3 km for the Heihe River Basin (HRB) from 2011 to 2014 using the Weather Research and Forecast (WRF) model nested with Final Analysis (FNL) from the National Center for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) and ERA-Interim from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) (hereafter referred to as FNLexp and ERAexp, respectively). Both of the downscaling simulations generally reproduced the observed spatial patterns of precipitation. However, users should keep in mind that the two downscaled datasets are not exactly the same in terms of observations. In comparison to the remote sensing-based estimation, the FNLexp produced a bias of heavy precipitation centers. In comparison to the ground gauge-based measurements, for the warm season (May to September), the ERAexp produced more precipitation (root-mean-square error (RMSE) = 295.4 mm, across the 43 sites) and more heavy rainfall days, while the FNLexp produced less precipitation (RMSE = 115.6 mm) and less heavy rainfall days. Both the ERAexp and FNLexp produced considerably more precipitation for the cold season (October to April) with RMSE values of 119.5 and 32.2 mm, respectively, and more heavy precipitation days. Along with simulating a higher number of heavy precipitation days, both the FNLexp and ERAexp also simulated stronger extreme precipitation. Sensitivity experiments show that the bias of these simulations is much more sensitive to micro-physical parameterizations than to the spatial resolution of topography data. For the HRB, application of the WSM3 scheme may improve the performance of the WRF model.

Rapid proliferation of Vibrio parahaemolyticus, Vibrio vulnificus, and Vibrio cholerae during freshwater flash floods in French Mediterranean coastal lagoons.

PubMed

Esteves, Kevin; Hervio-Heath, Dominique; Mosser, Thomas; Rodier, Claire; Tournoud, Marie-George; Jumas-Bilak, Estelle; Colwell, Rita R; Monfort, Patrick

2015-11-01

Vibrio parahaemolyticus, Vibrio vulnificus, and Vibrio cholerae of the non-O1/non-O139 serotype are present in coastal lagoons of southern France. In these Mediterranean regions, the rivers have long low-flow periods followed by short-duration or flash floods during and after heavy intense rainstorms, particularly at the end of the summer and in autumn. These floods bring large volumes of freshwater into the lagoons, reducing their salinity. Water temperatures recorded during sampling (15 to 24°C) were favorable for the presence and multiplication of vibrios. In autumn 2011, before heavy rainfalls and flash floods, salinities ranged from 31.4 to 36.1‰ and concentrations of V. parahaemolyticus, V. vulnificus, and V. cholerae varied from 0 to 1.5 × 10(3) most probable number (MPN)/liter, 0.7 to 2.1 × 10(3) MPN/liter, and 0 to 93 MPN/liter, respectively. Following heavy rainstorms that generated severe flash flooding and heavy discharge of freshwater, salinity decreased, reaching 2.2 to 16.4‰ within 15 days, depending on the site, with a concomitant increase in Vibrio concentration to ca. 10(4) MPN/liter. The highest concentrations were reached with salinities between 10 and 20‰ for V. parahaemolyticus, 10 and 15‰ for V. vulnificus, and 5 and 12‰ for V. cholerae. Thus, an abrupt decrease in salinity caused by heavy rainfall and major flooding favored growth of human-pathogenic Vibrio spp. and their proliferation in the Languedocian lagoons. Based on these results, it is recommended that temperature and salinity monitoring be done to predict the presence of these Vibrio spp. in shellfish-harvesting areas of the lagoons. Copyright © 2015, American Society for Microbiology. All Rights Reserved.

Pollution characteristics of surface runoff under different restoration types in manganese tailing wasteland.

PubMed

Wang, Jun; Cheng, Qingyu; Xue, Shengguo; Rajendran, Manikandan; Wu, Chuan; Liao, Jiaxin

2018-04-01

A great deal of manganese and associated heavy metals (such as Ni, Cu, Zn, Cd, Pb, etc.) was produced in manganese mining, smelting, and other processes and weathering and leaching of waste slag, which entered rainwater runoff by different means under the action of rainfall runoff. It caused heavy metal pollution in water environment to surrounding areas, and then environmental and human health risks were becoming increasingly serious. In the Xiangtan manganese mine, we studied the characteristics of nutritional pollutants and heavy metals by using the method of bounded runoff plots on the manganese tailing wasteland after carrying out some site treatments using three different approaches, such as (1) exposed tailings, the control treatment (ET), (2) external-soil amelioration and colonization of Cynodon dactylon (Linn.) Pers. turf (EC), and (3) external-soil amelioration and seedling seeding propagation of Cynodon dactylon (Linn.) Pers. (ES). The research showed that the maximum runoff occurred in 20,140,712 rainfall events, and the basic law of runoff was EC area > ET area > ES area in the same rainfall event. The concentration of total suspended solids (TSS) and chemical oxygen demand (COD) of three ecological restoration areas adopted the following rule: ET area > EC area > ES area. Nitrogen (N) existed mainly in the form of water soluble while phosphorus (P) was particulate. The highest concentrations of total nitrogen (TN) and total phosphorus (TP) were 11.57 ± 2.99 mg/L in the EC area and 1.42 ± 0.56 mg/L in the ET area, respectively. Cr, Ni, Pb, Zn, Mn, and Cu in surface runoff from three restoration types all exceeded the class V level of the environmental quality standard for surface water except Cu in EC and ES areas. Pollution levels of heavy metals in surface runoff from three restoration areas are shown as follows: ET area > EC area > ES area. There was a significant positive correlation between TSS and runoff, COD, and TP. And this correlation was significant between total dissolved nitrogen (TDN), TN, total dissolved phosphorus (TDP), and TP. The six heavy metals (Cu, Ni, Pb, Zn, Mn, and Cr) in surface runoff of different ecological restoration areas were strongly related to each other, and were significantly related to the TSS.

Study of heavy metals transport by runoff and sediments from an abandoned mine: Alagoa, Portugal

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gerardo, R.; de Lima, J. L. M. P.; de Lima, M. I. P.

2009-04-01

Over time, several studies have been designed to understand heavy metals fate and its impact on the environment and on human health. However, only a few studies have focused on the transport of heavy metals in mining areas through the various hydrological processes such as runoff, infiltration, and subsurface flow. In particular, heavy rainfall events have a great impact on the dispersion of metals existing in the soil. This problem is often more serious in abandoned and inactive mining sites causing environmental problems. In Portugal, there are 175 identified abandoned mines that continuously threaten the environment through acid drainage waters that pollute the soil as well as surface and groundwater. An example is the abandoned mine of Alagoa, located near the village of Penacova (Centre of Portugal); in this site mining activities ceased about 30 years ago. The area is characterized by very steep slopes that are confining with a small stream; the mining excavation by-products were deposited on these slopes. We have selected this mine as a case study, aiming at understanding the transport mechanisms and dispersion of heavy metals and at contributing to the definition of the most appropriate mitigation measures for this area that is contaminated by heavy metals from the mine tailings. So far a total of 30 soil samples from 3 contaminated zones were collected and analysed for pH, texture and heavy metal content, using atomic absorption spectroscopy. Results indicate that the contents of Zn and Pb in the soil samples are in the range from 95-460 mg/kg and 67-239 mg/kg, respectively, which exceed the critical limit-values defined by the Portuguese legislation. These metals are dispersed downslope and downstream from the mine tailings by storm water. The next step of this work is to investigate the transport of heavy metals by runoff, by mobilization of sediments and by subsurface flow. Three spatial scales tests will be conducted: on the mine tailings, on the slope areas, and in the laboratory, using soil flumes, which include the use of rainfall simulators. This study will allow the evaluation of several variables and processes, described above, under controlled conditions.

O'Hare ASDE-2 radome performance in rain : analysis and improvement.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

1973-03-01

The operational performance of the ASDE-2 radar at O'Hare Airport is severely limited during periods of moderate to heavy rainfall. Using the system performance specifications, an estimate has been made of the ASDE-2's tolerance to power loss and deg...

Sanitary Sewer Systems and Association with Gastrointestinal Illness: A case crossover analysis of Massachusetts Data, 2006-2008

EPA Science Inventory

Sanitary sewer overflows (SSOs) occur when untreated sewage is discharged into water sources before reaching the treatment facility potentially contaminating them with gastrointestinal pathogens. Causes of SSOs include heavy rainfall and rupture/blockage of sewer lines. Few studi...

Debris Flows and Floods in Southeastern Arizona from Extreme Precipitation in July 2006 - Magnitude, Frequency, and Sediment Delivery

USGS Publications Warehouse

Webb, Robert H.; Magirl, Christopher S.; Griffiths, Peter G.; Boyer, Diane E.

2008-01-01

From July 31 to August 1, 2006, an unusual set of atmospheric conditions aligned to produce record floods and an unprecedented number of slope failures and debris flows in southeastern Arizona. During the week leading up to the event, an upper-level low-pressure system centered over New Mexico generated widespread and locally heavy rainfall in southeastern Arizona, culminating in a series of strong, mesoscale convective systems that affected the region in the early morning hours of July 31 and August 1. Rainfall from July 27 through 30 provided sufficient antecedent moisture that the storms of July 31 through August 1 resulted in record streamflow flooding in northeastern Pima County and eastern Pinal County. The rainfall caused at least 623 slope failures in four mountain ranges, including more than 30 near Bowie Mountain in the northern Chiracahua Mountains, and 113 at the southern end of the Huachuca Mountains within and adjacent to Coronado National Memorial. In the Santa Catalina Mountains north of Tucson, 435 slope failures spawned debris flows on July 31 that, together with flood runoff, damaged structures and roads, affecting infrastructure within Tucson's urban boundary. Heavy, localized rainfall in the Galiuro Mountains on August 1, 2006, resulted in at least 45 slope failures and an unknown number of debris flows in Aravaipa Canyon. In the southern Santa Catalina Mountains, the maximum 3-day precipitation measured at a climate station for July 29-31 was 12.04 in., which has a 1,200-year recurrence interval. Other rainfall totals from late July to August 1 in southeastern Arizona also exceeded 1,000-year recurrence intervals. The storms produced floods of record along six watercourses, and these floods had recurrence intervals of 100-500 years. Repeat photography suggests that the spate of slope failures was historically unprecedented, and geologic mapping and cosmogenic dating of ancient debris-flow deposits indicate that debris flows reaching alluvial fans in the Tucson basin are extremely rare events. Although recent watershed changes - particularly the impacts of recent wildland fires - may be important locally, the record number of slope failures and debris flows were related predominantly to extreme precipitation, not other factors such as fire history. The large number of slope failures and debris flows in an area with few such occurrences historically underscores the rarity of this type of meteorological event in southeastern Arizona. Most slope failures appeared to be shallow-seated slope failures of colluvium on steep slopes that caused deep scour of chutes and substantial aggradation of channels downstream. In the southern Santa Catalina Mountains, we estimate that 1.5 million tons of sediment were released from slope failures into the channels of ten drainage basins. Thirty-six percent of this sediment (527,000 tons) is gravel-sized or smaller and is likely to be transported by streamflow out of the mountain drainages and into the drainage network of metropolitan Tucson. This sediment poses a potential flood hazard by reducing conveyance in fixed-section flood control structures along Rillito Creek and its major tributaries, although our estimates suggest that deposition may be small if it is distributed widely along the channel, which is expected. Using the stochastic debris-flow model LAHARZ, we simulated debris-flow transport from slope failures to the apices of alluvial fans flanking the southern Santa Catalina Mountains. Despite considerable uncertainty in applying coefficients developed from worldwide observations to conditions in the southern Santa Catalina Mountains, we predicted the approximate area of depositional zones for several 2006 debris flows, particularly for Soldier Canyon. Better results could be achieved in some canyons if sediment budgets could be developed to account for alternating transport and deposition zones in channels with abrupt expansions and contractions, such

NASA Spacecraft Images Cambodian Flooding

NASA Image and Video Library

2011-08-29

This image acquired by NASA Terra spacecraft shows unusually heavy rains over the upper Mekong River in Laos and Thailand that led to severe flooding in Cambodia in mid-August 2011. The city of Phnom Penh is at the bottom center of the image.

Application of Statistical Downscaling Techniques to Predict Rainfall and Its Spatial Analysis Over Subansiri River Basin of Assam, India

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Barman, S.; Bhattacharjya, R. K.

2017-12-01

The River Subansiri is the major north bank tributary of river Brahmaputra. It originates from the range of Himalayas beyond the Great Himalayan range at an altitude of approximately 5340m. Subansiri basin extends from tropical to temperate zones and hence exhibits a great diversity in rainfall characteristics. In the Northern and Central Himalayan tracts, precipitation is scarce on account of high altitudes. On the other hand, Southeast part of the Subansiri basin comprising the sub-Himalayan and the plain tract in Arunachal Pradesh and Assam, lies in the tropics. Due to Northeast as well as Southwest monsoon, precipitation occurs in this region in abundant quantities. Particularly, Southwest monsoon causes very heavy precipitation in the entire Subansiri basin during May to October. In this study, the rainfall over Subansiri basin has been studied at 24 different locations by multiple linear and non-linear regression based statistical downscaling techniques and by Artificial Neural Network based model. APHRODITE's gridded rainfall data of 0.25˚ x 0.25˚ resolutions and climatic parameters of HadCM3 GCM of resolution 2.5˚ x 3.75˚ (latitude by longitude) have been used in this study. It has been found that multiple non-linear regression based statistical downscaling technique outperformed the other techniques. Using this method, the future rainfall pattern over the Subansiri basin has been analyzed up to the year 2099 for four different time periods, viz., 2020-39, 2040-59, 2060-79, and 2080-99 at all the 24 locations. On the basis of historical rainfall, the months have been categorized as wet months, months with moderate rainfall and dry months. The spatial changes in rainfall patterns for all these three types of months have also been analyzed over the basin. Potential decrease of rainfall in the wet months and months with moderate rainfall and increase of rainfall in the dry months are observed for the future rainfall pattern of the Subansiri basin.

Climate-change driven increase in high intensity rainfall events: Analysis of development in the last decades and towards an extrapolation of future progression

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Müller, Eva; Pfister, Angela; Gerd, Büger; Maik, Heistermann; Bronstert, Axel

2015-04-01

Hydrological extreme events can be triggered by rainfall on different spatiotemporal scales: river floods are typically caused by event durations of between hours and days, while urban flash floods as well as soil erosion or contaminant transport rather result from storms events of very short duration (minutes). Still, the analysis of climate change impacts on rainfall-induced extreme events is usually carried out using daily precipitation data at best. Trend analyses of extreme rainfall at sub-daily or even sub-hourly time scales are rare. In this contribution two lines of research are combined: first, we analyse sub-hourly rainfall data for several decades in three European regions.Second, we investigate the scaling behaviour of heavy short-term precipitation with temperature, i.e. the dependence of high intensity rainfall on the atmospheric temperature at that particular time and location. The trend analysis of high-resolution rainfall data shows for the first time that the frequency of short and intensive storm events in the temperate lowland regions in Germany has increased by up to 0.5 events per year over the last decades. I.e. this trend suggests that the occurrence of these types of storms have multiplied over only a few decades. Parallel to the changes in the rainfall regime, increases in the annual and seasonal average temperature and changes in the occurrence of circulation patterns responsible for the generation of high-intensity storms have been found. The analysis of temporally highly resolved rainfall records from three European regions further indicates that extreme precipitation events are more intense with warmer temperatures during the rainfall event. These observations follow partly the Clausius-Clapeyron relation. Based on this relation one may derive a general rule of maximum rainfall intensity associated to the event temperature, roughly following the Clausius-Clapeyron (CC) relation. This rule might be used for scenarios of future maximum rainfall intensities under a warming climate.

The storm and flood of September 15, 1989, in Fayetteville, North Carolina

USGS Publications Warehouse

Mason, R.R.; Caldwell, W.S.

1992-01-01

The storm of September 15, 1989, in and around the city of Fayetteville, North Carolina, produced the most extensive flooding of Fayetteville since 1945. The flood inundated 925 acres in the city along Cross Creek and Blounts Creek and their tributaries, flooded 338 buildings, caused damages in excess of $10 million and claimed the lives of 2 small children. Twenty-two roads and five dams were overtopped, and three earthen dams failed. Recorded rainfall and streamflow data indicate that the storm and flood were relatively rare events. Recorded rainfall totals for durations of less than 2 hours were not exceptionally rare or unusual, but rainfall totals for 2-, 3-, and 6-hr durations recorded at a National Weather Service rain gage substantially exceeded 100-yr rainfall amounts by approximately 31, 28, and 12%, respectively. Recorded unit-peak discharges ranged from 33 to 6,060 cu ft/sec/sq mi (the latter downstream from a dam failure). Peak discharges at 6 of 10 stream-gaging sites had recurrence intervals greater than 100 yrs. Flooding of Cross Creek and Blounts Creek upstream of Robeson Street was generally less extensive than the 100-yr flood, as delineated by the Federal Emergency Management Agency. Downstream of Robeson Street, the flooding was more extensive.

Partitioning the impacts of spatial and climatological rainfall variability in urban drainage modeling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Peleg, Nadav; Blumensaat, Frank; Molnar, Peter; Fatichi, Simone; Burlando, Paolo

2017-03-01

The performance of urban drainage systems is typically examined using hydrological and hydrodynamic models where rainfall input is uniformly distributed, i.e., derived from a single or very few rain gauges. When models are fed with a single uniformly distributed rainfall realization, the response of the urban drainage system to the rainfall variability remains unexplored. The goal of this study was to understand how climate variability and spatial rainfall variability, jointly or individually considered, affect the response of a calibrated hydrodynamic urban drainage model. A stochastic spatially distributed rainfall generator (STREAP - Space-Time Realizations of Areal Precipitation) was used to simulate many realizations of rainfall for a 30-year period, accounting for both climate variability and spatial rainfall variability. The generated rainfall ensemble was used as input into a calibrated hydrodynamic model (EPA SWMM - the US EPA's Storm Water Management Model) to simulate surface runoff and channel flow in a small urban catchment in the city of Lucerne, Switzerland. The variability of peak flows in response to rainfall of different return periods was evaluated at three different locations in the urban drainage network and partitioned among its sources. The main contribution to the total flow variability was found to originate from the natural climate variability (on average over 74 %). In addition, the relative contribution of the spatial rainfall variability to the total flow variability was found to increase with longer return periods. This suggests that while the use of spatially distributed rainfall data can supply valuable information for sewer network design (typically based on rainfall with return periods from 5 to 15 years), there is a more pronounced relevance when conducting flood risk assessments for larger return periods. The results show the importance of using multiple distributed rainfall realizations in urban hydrology studies to capture the total flow variability in the response of the urban drainage systems to heavy rainfall events.

Return period curves for extreme 5-min rainfall amounts at the Barcelona urban network

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lana, X.; Casas-Castillo, M. C.; Serra, C.; Rodríguez-Solà, R.; Redaño, A.; Burgueño, A.; Martínez, M. D.

2018-03-01

Heavy rainfall episodes are relatively common in the conurbation of Barcelona and neighbouring cities (NE Spain), usually due to storms generated by convective phenomena in summer and eastern and south-eastern advections in autumn. Prevention of local flood episodes and right design of urban drainage have to take into account the rainfall intensity spread instead of a simple evaluation of daily rainfall amounts. The database comes from 5-min rain amounts recorded by tipping buckets in the Barcelona urban network along the years 1994-2009. From these data, extreme 5-min rain amounts are selected applying the peaks-over-threshold method for thresholds derived from both 95% percentile and the mean excess plot. The return period curves are derived from their statistical distribution for every gauge, describing with detail expected extreme 5-min rain amounts across the urban network. These curves are compared with those derived from annual extreme time series. In this way, areas in Barcelona submitted to different levels of flood risk from the point of view of rainfall intensity are detected. Additionally, global time trends on extreme 5-min rain amounts are quantified for the whole network and found as not statistically significant.

Rainfall intensity and groundwater recharge: evidence from ground-based observations in East Africa (Invited)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Taylor, R. G.; Owor, M.; Kaponda, A.

2013-12-01

Global greenhouse-gas emissions serve to warm Africa more rapidly than the rest of the world. The intensification of precipitation that is associated with this warming, strongly influences terrestrial water budgets. This shift toward fewer but heavier rainfall events is expected to lead to more frequent and intense floods as well as more variable and lower soil moisture. However, its impact on groundwater recharge is unclear and in dispute. We review evidence from long (1 to 5 decades) time series of groundwater levels recorded in deeply weathered crystalline rock aquifers systems underlying land surfaces of low relief in Uganda and Tanzania. Borehole hydrographs consistently demonstrate a non-linear relationship between rainfall and recharge wherein heavy rainfalls exceeding a threshold contribute disproportionately to the recharge flux. Rapid responses observed in groundwater levels to rainfall events attest further to the importance of preferential pathways in enabling rain-fed recharge via soil macro-pores. Our results suggest that, in these environments, increased use of groundwater to offset periods of low surface flow and to supplement soil moisture through irrigation may prove a logical strategy to enhance regional water and food security.

Physically-based quantitative analysis of soil erosion induced by heavy rainfall on steep slopes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Della Sala, Maria; Cuomo, Sabatino; Novità, Antonio

2014-05-01

Heavy rainstorms cause either shallow landslides or soil superficial erosion in steep hillslopes covered by coarse unsaturated soils (Cascini et al., 2013), even over large areas (Cuomo and Della Sala, 2013a). The triggering stage of both phenomena is related to ground infiltration, runoff and overland flow (Cuomo and Della Sala, 2013), which are key processes to be investigated. In addition, the mobilization of solid particles deserves a proper physical-based modeling whether a quantitative estimation of solid particles discharge at the outlet of mountain basin is required. In this work, the approaches for soil superficial erosion analysis are firstly reviewed; then, a relevant case study of two medium-sized mountain basins, affected by flow-like phenomena with huge consequences (Cascini et al., 2009) is presented, which motivates a parametric numerical analysis with a physically-based model carried out for a wide class of soil properties and rainfall scenarios (Cuomo et al., 2013b). The achieved results outline that the peak discharge of water and solid particles driven by overland flow depends on rainfall intensity while volumetric solid concentration within the washout is related to the morphometric features of the whole mountain basin. Furthermore, soil suction is outlined as a key factor for the spatial-temporal evolution of infiltration and runoff in the basin, also affecting the discharge of water and solid particles at the outlet of the basin. Based on these insights, selected cases are analyzed aimed to provide a wide class of possible slope erosion scenarios. It is shown that, provided the same amount of cumulated rainfall, the sequence of high and low intensity rainfall events strongly affects the time-discharge at the outlet of the basin without significant variations of the maximum volumetric solid concentration. References Cascini, L., Cuomo, S., Ferlisi, S., Sorbino, G. (2009). Detection of mechanisms for destructive landslides in Campania region-southern Italy. Proc. of the first Italian Workshop on Landslides, 8-10 June 2009 Naples, Italy, vol 1. Studio Editoriale Doppiavoce, Naples, pp 43-51. Cascini, L., Sorbino, G., Cuomo, S., Ferlisi, S. (2013). Seasonal effects of rainfall on the shallow pyroclastic deposits of the Campania region (southern Italy). Landslides, 1-14, DOI: 10.1007/s10346-013-0395-3. Cuomo S., Della Sala M. (2013a). Spatially distributed analysis of shallow landslides and soil erosion induced by rainfall. (submitted to Natural Hazards). Cuomo, S., Della Sala, M. (2013b). Rainfall-induced infiltration, runoff and failure in steep unsaturated shallow soil deposits. Engineering Geology. 162, 118-127. Cuomo, S., Della Sala, M., Novità A. (2013). Physically-based modeling of soil erosion induced by rainfall on steep slopes. (submitted to Geomorphology).

Recent extreme rainfall-induced landslides and government countermeasures in Korea

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lee, Su-Gon; Hencher, Stephen

2013-04-01

During 2011 a large number of landslides occurred in South Korea as a result of heavy rainfall (160~300mm/day) which fell between 19 June and 27 July. Fifty eight people were killed and 200 injured at 11 locations. Almost 80% of the fatal landslides can be attributed at least in part to human activities such as an army camp, pedestrian road, forest road, cemetery, tomb, irrigation for vegetable garden and fruit farm. This paper addresses the anthropogenic influences on recent landslides in Korea. In addition, this paper discusses the Korean government countermeasures related to landslides. Restoration works tends to start immediately without design reports and without investigating the causes of landslides. Restoration works tend to comprise simple erosion control such as hard-covering to failure surfaces and the provision of check dams. These measures are implemented without any input from specialist geotechnical engineers. Persons injured or subject to economic loss as a result of landslides have often taken legal action against the Korean government. The most usual result is that experts appointed by the courts side with Government and simply conclude that the disasters are the natural consequence of heavy rainfall. As a result claimants have generally lost their cases and received no compensation. Furthermore, because of the lack of proper investigations there are no lessons learned from past landslides and no department has been established within the Korean government, tasked with reducing landslide risk.

Development of a flash flood warning system based on real-time radar data and process-based erosion modelling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schindewolf, Marcus; Kaiser, Andreas; Buchholtz, Arno; Schmidt, Jürgen

2017-04-01

Extreme rainfall events and resulting flash floods led to massive devastations in Germany during spring 2016. The study presented aims on the development of a early warning system, which allows the simulation and assessment of negative effects on infrastructure by radar-based heavy rainfall predictions, serving as input data for the process-based soil loss and deposition model EROSION 3D. Our approach enables a detailed identification of runoff and sediment fluxes in agricultural used landscapes. In a first step, documented historical events were analyzed concerning the accordance of measured radar rainfall and large scale erosion risk maps. A second step focused on a small scale erosion monitoring via UAV of source areas of heavy flooding events and a model reconstruction of the processes involved. In all examples damages were caused to local infrastructure. Both analyses are promising in order to detect runoff and sediment delivering areas even in a high temporal and spatial resolution. Results prove the important role of late-covering crops such as maize, sugar beet or potatoes in runoff generation. While e.g. winter wheat positively affects extensive runoff generation on undulating landscapes, massive soil loss and thus muddy flows are observed and depicted in model results. Future research aims on large scale model parameterization and application in real time, uncertainty estimation of precipitation forecast and interface developments.

Meteorological analysis of flash floods in Artvin (NE Turkey) on 24 August 2015

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Baltaci, Hakki

2017-07-01

On 24 August 2015 intense rainfall episodes generated flash floods and landslides on the eastern Black Sea coast of Turkey. As a consequence of the heavy rainstorm activity over Artvin and its surroundings (NE Turkey), 11 people died and economic losses totaled a million dollars. Over the 6 h of the event (from 05:00 to 11:00 UTC), total accumulated rainfall amounts of 136, 64, and 109 mm were measured in the Hopa, Arhavi, and Borçka settlements of Artvin city, respectively. This study comprehensively investigates the meteorological characteristics of those flash floods. In terms of synoptic mechanisms, the cutoff surface low from the summer Asian monsoon settled over the eastern Black Sea. After two days of quasistationary conditions of this cyclone, sea surface temperatures (SSTs) reached 27.5 °C (1.5 °C higher than normal) and low-level moisture convergence developed. In addition, transfer of moisture by warm northerly flows from the Black Sea and relatively cool southerly flows from the land coasts of the Artvin district exacerbated the unstable conditions and thus played a significant role in the development of deep convective cells. Severe rainstorms as well as the slope instability of the region triggered landslides and worsened flood damages in the Artvin area. This study supports conventional weather analysis, satellite images, and forecast model output to alert forecasters to the potential for heavy rainfall.

The Predictability of Dry-Season Precipitation in Tropical West Africa

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Knippertz, P.; Davis, J.; Fink, A. H.

2012-04-01

Precipitation during the boreal winter dry season in tropical West Africa is rare but occasionally connected to high-impacts for the local population. Previous work has shown that these events are usually connected to a trough over northwestern Africa, an extensive cloud plume on its eastern side, unusual precipitation at the northern and western fringes of the Sahara, and reduced surface pressure over the southern Sahara and Sahel, which allows an inflow of moist southerlies from the Gulf of Guinea to feed the unusual dry-season rainfalls. These results also suggest that the extratropical influence enhances the predictability of these events on the synoptic timescale. Here we further investigate this question for the 11 dry seasons (November-March) 1998/99-2008/09 using rainfall estimates from TRMM (Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission) and GPCP (Global Precipitation Climatology Project), and operational ensemble predictions from the European Centre for Medium-Range Forecasts (ECMWF). All fields are averaged over the study area 7.5-15°N, 10°W-10°E that spans most of southern West Africa. For each 0000 UTC analysis time, the daily precipitation estimates are accumulated to pentads and compared with 120-hour predictions starting at the same time. Compared to TRMM, the ensemble mean shows a weak positive bias, whereas there is a substantial negative bias with regard to GPCP. Temporal correlations reach a high value of 0.8 for both datasets, showing similar synoptic variability despite the differences in total amount. Standard probabilistic evaluation methods such as relative operating characteristic (ROC) diagrams indicate remarkably good reliability, resolution and skill, particularly for lower precipitation thresholds. Not surprisingly, forecasts cluster at low probabilities for higher thresholds, but the reliability and ROC score are still reasonably high. The results show that global ensemble prediction systems are capable to predict dry-season rainfall events in southern West Africa well, at least on regional spatial and synoptic time scales. These results should encourage West African weather services to capitalize more on the valuable information provided by ensemble prediction systems during the dry season.

Intraseasonal SST-precipitation coupling during the Indian Summer Monsoon, and its modulation by the Indian Ocean Dipole

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jongaramrungruang, S.; Seo, H.; Ummenhofer, C.

2016-02-01

The Indian Summer Monsoon (ISM) plays a crucial role in shaping the large proportion of the total precipitation over the Indian subcontinent each year. The ISM rainfall exhibits a particularly strong intraseasonal variability, that has profound socioeconomic consequences, such as agricultural planning and flood preparation. However, our understanding of the variability on this time scale is still limited due to sparse data availability in the past. In this study, we used a combination of state-of-the-art high-resolution satellite estimate of rainfall, objectively analyzed surface flux, as well as atmospheric reanalysis product to investigate the nature of the ISM intraseasonal rainfall variability and how it varies year to year. The emphasis is placed on the Bay of Bengal (BoB) where the intraseasonal ocean-atmosphere coupling is most prominent. Results show that the maximum warming of SST leads the onset of heavy precipitation event by 3-5 days, and that surface heat flux and surface wind speed are weak prior to the rain but amplifies and peaks after the rain reaches its maximum. Furthermore, the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) significantly affects the observed intraseasonal SST-precipitation relationship. The pre-convection SST warming is stronger and more pronounced during the negative phase of the IOD, while the signal is weaker and less organized in the positive phase. This is explained by the column-integrated moisture budget analysis which reveals that, during the ISM heavy rainfall in the BoB, there is more moisture interchange in the form of enhanced vertical advection from the ocean to atmosphere in negative IOD years as compared to positive IOD years. Knowing the distinction of ISM variabilities during opposite phases of the IOD will help contribute to a more reliable prediction of ISM activities.

Calibration of a convective parameterization scheme in the WRF model and its impact on the simulation of East Asian summer monsoon precipitation

DOE PAGES

Yang, Ben; Zhang, Yaocun; Qian, Yun; ...

2014-03-26

Reasonably modeling the magnitude, south-north gradient and seasonal propagation of precipitation associated with the East Asian Summer Monsoon (EASM) is a challenging task in the climate community. In this study we calibrate five key parameters in the Kain-Fritsch convection scheme in the WRF model using an efficient importance-sampling algorithm to improve the EASM simulation. We also examine the impacts of the improved EASM precipitation on other physical process. Our results suggest similar model sensitivity and values of optimized parameters across years with different EASM intensities. By applying the optimal parameters, the simulated precipitation and surface energy features are generally improved.more » The parameters related to downdraft, entrainment coefficients and CAPE consumption time (CCT) can most sensitively affect the precipitation and atmospheric features. Larger downdraft coefficient or CCT decrease the heavy rainfall frequency, while larger entrainment coefficient delays the convection development but build up more potential for heavy rainfall events, causing a possible northward shift of rainfall distribution. The CCT is the most sensitive parameter over wet region and the downdraft parameter plays more important roles over drier northern region. Long-term simulations confirm that by using the optimized parameters the precipitation distributions are better simulated in both weak and strong EASM years. Due to more reasonable simulated precipitation condensational heating, the monsoon circulations are also improved. Lastly, by using the optimized parameters the biases in the retreating (beginning) of Mei-yu (northern China rainfall) simulated by the standard WRF model are evidently reduced and the seasonal and sub-seasonal variations of the monsoon precipitation are remarkably improved.« less

Children's Views about the Water Cycle.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Bar, Varda

1989-01-01

Israeli children's (kindergarten to grade nine) explanations about the water cycle are described. Reports the children's views about the source of clouds and the mechanism of rainfall. It was concluded that understanding evaporation is a necessary condition for explaining a mechanism of rain containing the ideas of condensation and heaviness. (YP)

Sanitary Sewer Overflows and Association with Gastrointestinal Illness: A case crossover analysis of Massachusetts Data, 2006-2007

EPA Science Inventory

Sanitary sewer overflows (SSOs) occur when untreated sewage is discharged into water sources potentially causing contamination. SSOs are primarily caused by heavy rainfall, which is expected to become heavier and more episodic due to climate change. We conducted a case-crossover ...

RATES OF GASTROINTESTINAL ILLNESS AMONG AREAS IMPACTED BY COMBINED SEWER FACILITIES: ANALYSIS OF MASSACHUSETTS DATA, 2003-2007

EPA Science Inventory

Previous studies have reported a temporal association between heavy rainfall and gastrointestinal infection (GI). Combined sewer systems (CSSs), which are present in many urban areas in the US, were designed to collect rainwater runoff, domestic sewage, and industrial wastewater ...

Rift Valley fever outbreak, southern Mauritania, 2012.

PubMed

Sow, Abdourahmane; Faye, Ousmane; Ba, Yamar; Ba, Hampathé; Diallo, Diawo; Faye, Oumar; Loucoubar, Cheikh; Boushab, Mohamed; Barry, Yahya; Diallo, Mawlouth; Sall, Amadou Alpha

2014-02-01

After a period of heavy rainfall, an outbreak of Rift Valley fever occurred in southern Mauritania during September-November 2012. A total of 41 human cases were confirmed, including 13 deaths, and 12 Rift Valley fever virus strains were isolated. Moudjeria and Temchecket Departments were the most affected areas.

Rainfall and Sheet Power Equation for Interrill Erosion on Steep Hillslope

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shin, S.; Park, S.; Pierson, F. B.; Al-Hamdan, O. Z.; Williams, C. J.

2012-12-01

Splash and sheet erosion processes dominate on most undisturbed hillslopes of rangeland. Interrill soil erosion should consider the influence of both raindrop and sheet flow to work of soil particles detached by raindrop impact and transported by rainfall-disturbed sheet flow. Interrill erosion equations that combine the influence of both rainfall and runoff have been proposed by several researchers. However most approaches to modeling interrill erosion have been based on statistical relationships given the inherent complexity in derivation of broadly-applicable physically-based erosion parameters. In this study, a rainfall and sheet power equation to evaluate interrill sediment yields (Qs) was derived from the sum of rainfall power and sheet power expressed by rainfall intensity: Qs=a(cosθ/L){α sinθ ∑ I(t)^(11/9)+β tanθ^(1/2) ∑ (1-fr(t))^(5/3) I(t)^(5/3)}^b, where I(t) is rainfall intensity, θ is slope angle, fr(t) is infiltration rate, a, b, α, and β are coefficients, sinθ I(t)^(11/9) is the rainfall power term, and tanθ^(1/2) (1-fr(t))^(5/3) I(t)^(5/3) is the sheet power term. The rainfall power ratio and sheet power ratio decreased and increased with increased rainfall intensity, respectively. The sheet power term depended greatly on infiltration rate controlled by rainfall intensity, vegetation cover, and soil condition. The rainfall and sheet power equation assuming that α and β is 0 was evaluated using field data from plots on steep hillslopes and showed the better correlation with sediment yields than rainfall kinetic energy, runoff discharge, or interrill equations based on rainfall intensity and runoff discharge founded in the literature. This equation successfully explained physical processes for soil erosion that rainfall power is dominant under low rainfall and sheet power is dominant under heavy rainfall. Additional experimental data is needed to assess coefficients of the power equation to determine the relative quantities of rainfall power and sheet power and to evaluate the erosion efficiency of interactions between raindrop impact and sheet flow and soil erodibility. Acknowledgements: This work was supported by a grant (Code#'08 RTIP B-01) from Regional Technology Innovation Program funded by Ministry of Land, Transport and Maritime Affairs of Korean government.;

[Outbreak of carbon monoxide poisoning in the Ile-de-France region during the spring 2016 Seine flooding].

PubMed

Dufayet, Laurène; Médernach, Chantal; Bassi, Clément; Garnier, Robert; Langrand, Jérôme

2017-01-01

Heavy rainfall in May 2016 caused large-scale flooding of the Seine and its tributaries. Analysis of this unusual event showed that it could recur on an even larger scale. The sanitary consequences were less frequently assessed in this analysis, particularly the risk of accidental collective carbon monoxide (CO) poisoning caused by the use of combustion engine drainage pumps. We retrospectively reviewed all cases of acute accidental carbon monoxide exposure observed in the Ile-de-France region, related to the use of drainage pumps in spring and summer 2016 and notified to the Ile-de-France CO poisoning surveillance network. Five events were identified, including 45 people exposed to carbon monoxide. Thirty-four of these people were poisoned, 5 were not poisoned and insufficient data were available for 6 people. Three people showed signs of severity and 2 were treated by hyperbaric oxygen therapy. The other poisoned individuals were managed in hospital and treated by oxygen therapy. All were cured. Collective CO poisonings are common sanitary events during flooding and can be potentially severe. They can occur during the event or over the following days. Preventive measures may help to reduce the risk of CO poisoning, such as increased awareness among professionals, better information of individuals who rent these types of devices or even the use of CO detectors during their use.

Global meteorological influences on the record UK rainfall of winter 2013-14

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Knight, Jeff R.; Maidens, Anna; Watson, Peter A. G.; Andrews, Martin; Belcher, Stephen; Brunet, Gilbert; Fereday, David; Folland, Chris K.; Scaife, Adam A.; Slingo, Julia

2017-07-01

The UK experienced record average rainfall in winter 2013-14, leading to widespread and prolonged flooding. The immediate cause of this exceptional rainfall was a very strong and persistent cyclonic atmospheric circulation over the North East Atlantic Ocean. This was related to a very strong North Atlantic jet stream which resulted in numerous damaging wind storms. These exceptional meteorological conditions have led to renewed questions about whether anthropogenic climate change is noticeably influencing extreme weather. The regional weather pattern responsible for the extreme UK winter coincided with highly anomalous conditions across the globe. We assess the contributions from various possible remote forcing regions using sets of ocean-atmosphere model relaxation experiments, where winds and temperatures are constrained to be similar to those observed in winter 2013-14 within specified atmospheric domains. We find that influences from the tropics were likely to have played a significant role in the development of the unusual extra-tropical circulation, including a role for the tropical Atlantic sector. Additionally, a stronger and more stable stratospheric polar vortex, likely associated with a strong westerly phase of the stratospheric Quasi-Biennial Oscillation (QBO), appears to have contributed to the extreme conditions. While intrinsic climatic variability clearly has the largest effect on the generation of extremes, results from an analysis which segregates circulation-related and residual rainfall variability suggest that emerging climate change signals made a secondary contribution to extreme rainfall in winter 2013-14.

High-Resolution Simulation of Hurricane Bonnie (1998). Part 1; The Organization of Vertical Motion

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Braun, Scott A.; Montgomery, Michael T.; Pu, Zhaoxia

2003-01-01

Hurricanes are well known for their strong winds and heavy rainfall, particularly in the intense rainband (eyewall) surrounding the calmer eye of the storm. In some hurricanes, the rainfall is distributed evenly around the eye so that it has a donut shape on radar images. In other cases, the rainfall is concentrated on one side of the eyewall and nearly absent on the other side and is said to be asymmetric. This study examines how the vertical air motions that produce the rainfall are distributed within the eyewall of an asymmetric hurricane and the factors that cause this pattern of rainfall. We use a sophisticated numerical forecast model to simulate Hurricane Bonnie, which occurred in late August of 1998 during a special NASA field experiment designed to study hurricanes. The simulation results suggest that vertical wind shear (a rapid change in wind speed or direction with height) caused the asymmetric rainfall and vertical air motion patterns by tilting the hurricane vortex and favoring upward air motions in the direction of tilt. Although the rainfall in the hurricane eyewall may surround more than half of the eye, the updrafts that produce the rainfall are concentrated in very small-scale, intense updraft cores that occupy only about 10% of the eyewall area. The model simulation suggests that the timing and location of individual updraft cores are controlled by intense, small-scale vortices (regions of rapidly swirling flow) in the eyewall and that the updrafts form when the vortices encounter low-level air moving into the eyewall.

Variability and trends of wet season temperature in the Sudano-Sahelian zone and relationships with precipitation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Oueslati, Boutheina; Camberlin, Pierre; Zoungrana, Joël; Roucou, Pascal; Diallo, Saliou

2018-02-01

The relationships between precipitation and temperature in the central Sudano-Sahelian belt are investigated by analyzing 50 years (1959-2008) of observed temperature (Tx and Tn) and rainfall variations. At daily time-scale, both Tx and Tn show a marked decrease as a response to rainfall occurrence, with a strongest departure from normal 1 day after the rainfall event (-0.5 to -2.5 °C depending on the month). The cooling is slightly larger when heavy rainfall events (>5 mm) are considered. The temperature anomalies weaken after the rainfall event, but are still significant several days later. The physical mechanisms accounting for the temperature response to precipitation are analysed. The Tx drop is accounted for by reduced incoming solar radiation associated with increased cloud cover and increased surface evaporation following surface moistening. The effect of evaporation becomes dominant a few days after the rainfall event. The reduced daytime heat storage and the subsequent sensible heat flux result in a later negative Tn anomaly. The effect of rainfall variations on temperature is significant for long-term warming trends. The rainfall decrease experienced between 1959 and 2008 accounts for a rainy season Tx increase of 0.15 to 0.3 °C, out of a total Tx increase of 1.3 to 1.5 °C. These results have strong implications on the assessment of future temperature changes. The dampening or amplifying effects of precipitation are determined by the sign of future precipitation trends. Confidence on temperature changes under global warming partly depend on the robustness of precipitation projections.

Association between Rainfall and Pediatric Emergency Department Visits for Acute Gastrointestinal Illness

PubMed Central

Drayna, Patrick; McLellan, Sandra L.; Simpson, Pippa; Li, Shun-Hwa; Gorelick, Marc H.

2010-01-01

Background Microbial water contamination after periods of heavy rainfall is well described, but its link to acute gastrointestinal illness (AGI) in children is not well known. Objectives We hypothesize an association between rainfall and pediatric emergency department (ED) visits for AGI that may represent an unrecognized, endemic burden of pediatric disease in a major U.S. metropolitan area served by municipal drinking water systems. Methods We conducted a retrospective time series analysis of visits to the Children’s Hospital of Wisconsin ED in Wauwatosa, Wisconsin. Daily visit totals of discharge International Classification of Diseases, 9th Revision codes of gastroenteritis or diarrhea were collected along with daily rainfall totals during the study period from 2002 to 2007. We used an autoregressive moving average model, adjusting for confounding variables such as sewage release events and season, to look for an association between daily visits and rainfall after a lag of 1–7 days. Results A total of 17,357 AGI visits were identified (mean daily total, 7.9; range, 0–56). Any rainfall 4 days prior was significantly associated with an 11% increase in AGI visits. Expected seasonal effects were also seen, with increased AGI visits in winter months. Conclusions We observed a significant association between rainfall and pediatric ED visits for AGI, suggesting a waterborne component of disease transmission in this population. The observed increase in ED visits for AGI occurred in the absence of any disease outbreaks reported to public health officials in our region, suggesting that rainfall-associated illness may be underestimated. Further study is warranted to better address this association. PMID:20515725

Searching for evidence of changes in extreme rainfall indices in the Central Rift Valley of Ethiopia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Muluneh, Alemayehu; Bewket, Woldeamlak; Keesstra, Saskia; Stroosnijder, Leo

2017-05-01

Extreme rainfall events have serious implications for economic sectors with a close link to climate such as agriculture and food security. This holds true in the Central Rift Valley (CRV) of Ethiopia where communities rely on highly climate-sensitive rainfed subsistence farming for livelihoods. This study investigates changes in ten extreme rainfall indices over a period of 40 years (1970-2009) using 14 meteorological stations located in the CRV. The CRV consists of three landscape units: the valley floor, the escarpments, and the highlands all of which are considered in our data analysis. The Belg (March-May) and Kiremt (June-September) seasons are also considered in the analysis. The Mann-Kendall test was used to detect trends of the rainfall indices. The results indicated that at the annual time scale, more than half (57 %) of the stations showed significant trends in total wet-day precipitation (PRCPTOT) and heavy precipitation days (R10mm). Only 7-35 % of stations showed significant trends, for the other rainfall indices. Spatially, the valley floor received increasing annual rainfall while the escarpments and the highlands received decreasing annual rainfall over the last 40 years. During Belg, 50 % of the stations showed significant increases in the maximum number of consecutive dry days (CDD) in all parts of the CRV. However, most other rainfall indices during Belg showed no significant changes. During Kiremt, considering both significant and non-significant trends, almost all rainfall indices showed an increasing trend in the valley floor and a decreasing trend in the escarpment and highlands. During Belg and Kiremt, the CDD generally showed increasing tendency in the CRV.

Latitudinal variation in summer monsoon rainfall over Western Ghat of India and its association with global sea surface temperatures.

PubMed

Revadekar, J V; Varikoden, Hamza; Murumkar, P K; Ahmed, S A

2018-02-01

The Western Ghats (WG) of India are basically north-south oriented mountains having narrow zonal width with a steep rising western face. The summer monsoon winds during June to September passing over the Arabian Sea are obstructed by the WG and thus orographically uplift to produce moderate-to-heavy precipitation over the region. However, it is seen that characteristic features of rainfall distribution during the season vary from north to south. Also its correlation with all-India summer monsoon rainfall increases from south to north. In the present study, an attempt is also made to examine long-term as well as short-term trends and variability in summer monsoon rainfall over different subdivisions of WG using monthly rainfall data for the period 1871-2014. Konkan & Goa and Coastal Karnataka show increase in rainfall from 1871 to 2014 in all individual summer monsoon months. Short-term trend analysis based on 31-year sliding window indicates that the trends are not monotonous, but has epochal behavior. In recent epoch, magnitudes of negative trends are consistently decreasing and have changed its sign to positive during 1985-2014. It has been observed that Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) plays a dominant positive role in rainfall over entire WG in all summer monsoon months, whereas role of Nino regions are asymmetric over WG rainfall. Indian summer monsoon is known for its negative relationship with Nino SST. Negative correlations are also seen for WG rainfall with Nino regions but only during onset and withdrawal phase. During peak monsoon months July and August subdivisions of WG mostly show positive correlation with Nino SST. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Flood and Landslide Applications of High Time Resolution Satellite Rain Products

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Adler, Robert F.; Hong, Yang; Huffman, George J.

2006-01-01

Experimental, potentially real-time systems to detect floods and landslides related to heavy rain events are described. A key basis for these applications is high time resolution satellite rainfall analyses. Rainfall is the primary cause for devastating floods across the world. However, in many countries, satellite-based precipitation estimation may be the best source of rainfall data due to insufficient ground networks and absence of data sharing along many trans-boundary river basins. Remotely sensed precipitation from the NASA's TRMM Multi-satellite Precipitation Analysis (TMPA) operational system (near real-time precipitation at a spatial-temporal resolution of 3 hours and 0.25deg x 0.25deg) is used to monitor extreme precipitation events. Then these data are ingested into a macro-scale hydrological model which is parameterized using spatially distributed elevation, soil and land cover datasets available globally from satellite remote sensing. Preliminary flood results appear reasonable in terms of location and frequency of events, with implementation on a quasi-global basis underway. With the availability of satellite rainfall analyses at fine time resolution, it has also become possible to assess landslide risk on a near-global basis. Early results show that landslide occurrence is closely associated with the spatial patterns and temporal distribution of TRMM rainfall characteristics. Particularly, the number of landslides triggered by rainfall is related to rainfall climatology, antecedent rainfall accumulation, and intensity-duration of rainstorms. For the purpose of prediction, an empirical TMPA-based rainfall intensity-duration threshold is developed and shown to have skill in determining potential areas of landslides. These experimental findings, in combination with landslide surface susceptibility information based on satellite-based land surface information, form a starting point towards a potential operational landslide monitoring/warning system around the globe.

A Bivariate Mixed Distribution with a Heavy-tailed Component and its Application to Single-site Daily Rainfall Simulation

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Li, Chao ..; Singh, Vijay P.; Mishra, Ashok K.

2013-02-06

This paper presents an improved brivariate mixed distribution, which is capable of modeling the dependence of daily rainfall from two distinct sources (e.g., rainfall from two stations, two consecutive days, or two instruments such as satellite and rain gauge). The distribution couples an existing framework for building a bivariate mixed distribution, the theory of copulae and a hybrid marginal distribution. Contributions of the improved distribution are twofold. One is the appropriate selection of the bivariate dependence structure from a wider admissible choice (10 candidate copula families). The other is the introduction of a marginal distribution capable of better representing lowmore » to moderate values as well as extremes of daily rainfall. Among several applications of the improved distribution, particularly presented here is its utility for single-site daily rainfall simulation. Rather than simulating rainfall occurrences and amounts separately, the developed generator unifies the two processes by generalizing daily rainfall as a Markov process with autocorrelation described by the improved bivariate mixed distribution. The generator is first tested on a sample station in Texas. Results reveal that the simulated and observed sequences are in good agreement with respect to essential characteristics. Then, extensive simulation experiments are carried out to compare the developed generator with three other alternative models: the conventional two-state Markov chain generator, the transition probability matrix model and the semi-parametric Markov chain model with kernel density estimation for rainfall amounts. Analyses establish that overall the developed generator is capable of reproducing characteristics of historical extreme rainfall events and is apt at extrapolating rare values beyond the upper range of available observed data. Moreover, it automatically captures the persistence of rainfall amounts on consecutive wet days in a relatively natural and easy way. Another interesting observation is that the recognized ‘overdispersion’ problem in daily rainfall simulation ascribes more to the loss of rainfall extremes than the under-representation of first-order persistence. The developed generator appears to be a sound option for daily rainfall simulation, especially in particular hydrologic planning situations when rare rainfall events are of great importance.« less

Impact of rainfall patterns and frequency on the export of pesticides and heavy-metals from agricultural soils.

PubMed

Meite, Fatima; Alvarez-Zaldívar, Pablo; Crochet, Alexandre; Wiegert, Charline; Payraudeau, Sylvain; Imfeld, Gwenaël

2018-03-01

The combined influence of soil characteristics, pollutant aging and rainfall patterns on the export of pollutants from topsoils is poorly understood. We used laboratory experiments and parsimonious modeling to evaluate the impact of rainfall characteristics on the ponding and the leaching of a pollutant mixture from topsoils. The mixture included the fungicide metalaxyl, the herbicide S-metolachlor, as well as copper (Cu) and zinc (Zn). Four rainfall patterns, which differed in their durations and intensities, were applied twice successively with a 7days interval on each soil type. To evaluate the influence of soil type and aging, experiments included crop and vineyard soils and two stages of pollutant aging (0 and 10days). The global export of pollutants was significantly controlled by the rainfall duration and frequency (P<0.01). During the first rainfall event, the longest and most intense rainfall pattern yielded the largest export of metalaxyl (44.5±21.5% of the initial mass spiked in the soils), S-metolachlor (8.1±3.1%) and Cu (3.1±0.3%). Soil compaction caused by the first rainfall reduced in the second rainfall the leaching of remaining metalaxyl, S-metolachlor, Cu and Zn by 2.4-, 2.9-, 30- and 50-fold, respectively. In contrast, soil characteristics and aging had less influence on pollutant mass export. The soil type significantly influenced the leaching of Zn, while short-term aging impacted Cu leaching. Our results suggest that rainfall characteristics predominantly control export patterns of metalaxyl and S-metolachlor, in particular when the aging period is short. We anticipate our study to be a starting point for more systematic evaluation of the dissolved pollutant ponding/leaching partitioning and the export of pollutant mixtures from different soil types in relation to rainfall patterns. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Projections of Future Precipitation Extremes Over Europe: A Multimodel Assessment of Climate Simulations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rajczak, Jan; Schär, Christoph

2017-10-01

Projections of precipitation and its extremes over the European continent are analyzed in an extensive multimodel ensemble of 12 and 50 km resolution EURO-CORDEX Regional Climate Models (RCMs) forced by RCP2.6, RCP4.5, and RCP8.5 (Representative Concentration Pathway) aerosol and greenhouse gas emission scenarios. A systematic intercomparison with ENSEMBLES RCMs is carried out, such that in total information is provided for an unprecedentedly large data set of 100 RCM simulations. An evaluation finds very reasonable skill for the EURO-CORDEX models in simulating temporal and geographical variations of (mean and heavy) precipitation at both horizontal resolutions. Heavy and extreme precipitation events are projected to intensify across most of Europe throughout the whole year. All considered models agree on a distinct intensification of extremes by often more than +20% in winter and fall and over central and northern Europe. A reduction of rainy days and mean precipitation in summer is simulated by a large majority of models in the Mediterranean area, but intermodel spread between the simulations is large. In central Europe and France during summer, models project decreases in precipitation but more intense heavy and extreme rainfalls. Comparison to previous RCM projections from ENSEMBLES reveals consistency but slight differences in summer, where reductions in southern European precipitation are not as pronounced as previously projected. The projected changes of the European hydrological cycle may have substantial impact on environmental and anthropogenic systems. In particular, the simulations indicate a rising probability of summertime drought in southern Europe and more frequent and intense heavy rainfall across all of Europe.

Changing water cycle over Korea

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yoon, J.

2017-12-01

In 2015, Korea experienced relatively strong drought, and annual mean precipitation was the third lowest since observation started at 1969 causing adverse impact on the several sectors including farming industry. Most precipitation in Korea occurs during summer season. In case of 2015 Korean drought, summer rainfall was much below than normal. On the other hand, another severe drought occurred in 2017 spring, which was followed by a couple of heavy rainfall cases that caused human casualties and damage in various sectors. Here we want to analyze this fast shifting of water cycle over Korea with a focus on its causing mechanisms and large scale atmospheric circulation features.

[Characteristics of Nitrogen and Phosphorus Losses in Longhong Ravine Basin of Westlake in Rainstorm Runoff].

PubMed

Yang, Fan; Jiang, Yi-feng; Wang, Cui-cui; Huang, Xiao-nan; Wu, Zhi-ying; Chen, Lin

2016-01-15

In order to understand the non-point source pollution status in Longhong ravine basin of Westlake, the characteristics of nutrient losses in runoff was investigated during three rainstorms in one year. The results showed that long duration rainstorm event generally formed several runoff peaks, and the time of its lag behind the peaks of rain intensity was dependent on the distribution of heavy rainfall. The first flush was related to the antecedent rainfall, and the less rainfall in the earlier period, the more total phosphorus (TP) and ammonia (NH4+ -N) in runoff was washed off. During the recession of runoff, more subsurface runoff would result in a concentration peak of total nitrogen (TN) and nitrogen (NO3- -N) . The event mean concentration (EMC) of runoff nitrogen had a negative correlation with rainfall, rainfall duration, maximum rain intensity and average rain intensity except for antecedent rainfall, whereas the change in TP EMC showed the opposite trend. The transport fluxes of nutrients increased with an elevation in runoffs, and Pearson analysis showed that the transport fluxes of TN and NO3- -N had good correlations with runoff depth. The average transport fluxes of TP, TN, NH4+ -N and NO3- -N were 34.10, 1195.55, 1006.62 and 52.38 g x hm(-2), respectively, and NO3- -N was the main nitrogen form and accounted for 84% of TN.

Improvement of the analog forecasting method by using local thermodynamic data. Application to autumn precipitation in Catalonia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gibergans-Báguena, J.; Llasat, M. C.

2007-12-01

The objective of this paper is to present the improvement of quantitative forecasting of daily rainfall in Catalonia (NE Spain) from an analogues technique, taking into account synoptic and local data. This method is based on an analogues sorting technique: meteorological situations similar to the current one, in terms of 700 and 1000 hPa geopotential fields at 00 UTC, complemented with the inclusion of some thermodynamic parameters extracted from an historical data file. Thermodynamic analysis acts as a highly discriminating feature for situations in which the synoptic situation fails to explain either atmospheric phenomena or rainfall distribution. This is the case in heavy rainfall situations, where the existence of instability and high water vapor content is essential. With the objective of including these vertical thermodynamic features, information provided by the Palma de Mallorca radiosounding (Spain) has been used. Previously, a selection of the most discriminating thermodynamic parameters for the daily rainfall was made, and then the analogues technique applied to them. Finally, three analog forecasting methods were applied for the quantitative daily rainfall forecasting in Catalonia. The first one is based on analogies from geopotential fields to synoptic scale; the second one is exclusively based on the search of similarity from local thermodynamic information and the third method combines the other two methods. The results show that this last method provides a substantial improvement of quantitative rainfall estimation.

Compilation of water resources development and hydrologic data of Saipan, Mariana Islands

USGS Publications Warehouse

Van der Brug, Otto

1985-01-01

Saipan is the largest island of the Northern Mariana Islands, a chain of 14 islands north of Guam. Saipan comprises one third of the land area of the islands. No long-term rainfall record is available at any location, but some rainfall records are for periods up to 16 years, some of which began in 1901. Average annual rainfall for the island is 81 inches, with the southern end receiving about 10 inches less annually than the rest of the island. The amount of rainfall which runs off in northeast Saipan ranges from 23 to 64 percent and averages about 40 percent. Runoff on the rest of the island is from springs or occurs only during heavy rainfall. Surface-water development appears impractical. Ground water is the main source of water for the island and production was almost 4 million gallons per day in 1982. However, chloride concentration in ground water exceeds 1,000 milligrams per liter in many locations. The average chloride concentration of the domestic water stays near the maximum permissible level (600 milligrams per liter). This report summarizes the history of the water-resources development and presents all available hydrologic data, including rainfall records since 1901, streamflow records since 1968, and drilling logs, pumping tests, chemical analyses, and production figures from 180 testholes and wells drilled on Saipan. (USGS)

Rain from Tropical Storm Noel

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

2007-01-01

Though not the most powerful storm of the 2007 Atlantic Hurricane season, Tropical Storm Noel was among the most deadly. Only Category 5 Hurricane Felix and its associated flooding had a higher toll. The slow-moving Tropical Storm Noel inundated the Dominican Republic, Haiti, Jamaica, Cuba, and the Bahamas with heavy rain between October 28 and November 1, 2007. The resulting floods and mudslides left at least 115 dead and thousands homeless throughout the Caribbean, reported the Associated Press on November 2, 2007. This image shows the distribution of the rainfall that made Noel a deadly storm. The image shows rainfall totals as measured by the Multi-satellite Precipitation Analysis (MPA) at NASA Goddard Space Flight Center from October 26 through November 1, 2007. The analysis is based on measurements taken by the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) satellite. The heaviest rainfall fell in the Dominican Republic and the Bahamas, northeast of Noel's center. Areas of dark red show that rainfall totals over the south-central Dominican Republic and parts of the Bahamas were over 551 millimeters (21 inches). Much of eastern Hispaniola, including both the Dominican Republic and Haiti received at least 200 mm (about 8 inches) of rain, shown in yellow. Rainfall totals over Haiti and Cuba were less, with a range of at least 50 mm (2 inches) to over 200 mm (8 inches).

Monitoring the Vertical Distribution of Rainfall-Induced Strain Changes in a Landslide Measured by Distributed Fiber Optic Sensing With Rayleigh Backscattering

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kogure, Tetsuya; Okuda, Yudai

2018-05-01

Distributed fiber optic sensing with Rayleigh backscattering, which has been recognized as a novel technique for measuring differences in temperature or strain, was adopted in a borehole to a depth of 16 m in an actual landslide to detect a vertical profile of strain changes. Strain changes were measured every 6 hr from 19 June 2017 to 18 October 2017 with a spatial resolution of 10 cm and strain resolution of 1.87 μɛ. The measurements provided a clear-cut vertical profile of the strain changes caused by rainfalls that cannot be detected by conventional methods. The results show that there are two types of deformation in the landslide mass: (1) sliding at the boundary between tuff and mudstone and (2) creep in mudstone layers. Activation of deeper sections of the landslide by heavy rainfalls has also been detected.

Variation of Temperature and Precipitation in Urban Agglomeration and Prevention Suggestion of Waterlogging in Middle and Lower Reaches of Yangtze River

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Na, Liu; Youjie, Jin; Jiaqi, Dai

2018-03-01

The variation trend of temperature and precipitation during flood season in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River basin in recent 50 years and change characteristics of rainfall in five typical flood prone cities are analysed. Aiming at waterlogging problems in the urban agglomeration of middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River, the comprehensive prevention and control suggestions are put forward. The results showed that: the temperature trend in the basin decreased and then increased, and the precipitation showed a downward-rising-downward trend, no mutation occurred; The incidence of heavy rainfall events in the five typical cities with daily rainfall more than 50mm showed an upward trend, and increased significantly after 2002. The intensity of precipitation increased gradually. Climate change makes urban agglomeration waterlogging disasters become increasingly prominent in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River.

An Unusual Coronal Mass Ejection: First Solar Wind Electron, Proton, Alpha Monitor (SWEPAM) Results from the Advanced Composition Explorer. Appendix 6

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

McComas, D. J.; Bame, S. J.; Barker, P. L.; Delapp, D. M.; Gosling, J. T.; Skoug, R. M.; Tokar, R. L.; Riley, P.; Feldman, W. C.; Santiago, E.

2001-01-01

This paper reports the first scientific results from the Solar Wind Electron Proton Alpha Monitor (SWEPAM) instrument on board the Advanced Composition Explorer (ACE) spacecraft. We analyzed a coronal mass ejection (CME) observed in the solar wind using data from early February, 1998. This event displayed several of the common signatures of CMEs, such as counterstreaming halo electrons and depressed ion and electron temperatures, as well as some unusual features. During a portion of the CME traversal, SWEPAM measured a very large helium to proton abundance ratio. Other heavy ions, with a set of ionization states consistent with normal (1 to 2x10(exp 6) K) coronal temperatures, were proportionately enhanced at this time. These observations suggest a source for at least some of the CME material, where heavy ions are initially concentrated relative to hydrogen and then accelerated up into the solar wind, independent of their mass and first ionization potential.

Regional extreme rainfalls observed globally with 17 years of the Tropical Precipitation Measurement Mission

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Takayabu, Yukari; Hamada, Atsushi; Mori, Yuki; Murayama, Yuki; Liu, Chuntao; Zipser, Edward

2015-04-01

While extreme rainfall has a huge impact upon human society, the characteristics of the extreme precipitation vary from region to region. Seventeen years of three dimensional precipitation measurements from the space-borne precipitation radar equipped with the Tropical Precipitation Measurement Mission satellite enabled us to describe the characteristics of regional extreme precipitation globally. Extreme rainfall statistics are based on rainfall events defined as a set of contiguous PR rainy pixels. Regional extreme rainfall events are defined as those in which maximum near-surface rainfall rates are higher than the corresponding 99.9th percentile in each 2.5degree x2.5degree horizontal resolution grid. First, regional extreme rainfall is characterized in terms of its intensity and event size. Regions of ''intense and extensive'' extreme rainfall are found mainly over oceans near coastal areas and are likely associated with tropical cyclones and convective systems associated with the establishment of monsoons. Regions of ''intense but less extensive'' extreme rainfall are distributed widely over land and maritime continents, probably related to afternoon showers and mesoscale convective systems. Regions of ''extensive but less intense'' extreme rainfall are found almost exclusively over oceans, likely associated with well-organized mesoscale convective systems and extratropical cyclones. Secondly, regional extremes in terms of surface rainfall intensity and those in terms of convection height are compared. Conventionally, extremely tall convection is considered to contribute the largest to the intense rainfall. Comparing probability density functions (PDFs) of 99th percentiles in terms of the near surface rainfall intensity in each regional grid and those in terms of the 40dBZ echo top heights, it is found that heaviest precipitation in the region is not associated with tallest systems, but rather with systems with moderate heights. Interestingly, this separation of extremely heavy precipitation from extremely tall convection is found to be quite universal, irrespective of regions. Rainfall characteristics and environmental conditions both indicate the importance of warm-rain processes in producing extreme rainfall rates. Thus it is demonstrated that, even in regions where severe convective storms are representative extreme weather events, the heaviest rainfall events are mostly associated with less intense convection. Third, the size effect of rainfall events on the precipitation intensity is investigated. Comparisons of normalized PDFs of foot-print size rainfall intensity for different sizes of rainfall events show that footprint-scale extreme rainfall becomes stronger as the rainfall events get larger. At the same time, stratiform ratio in area as well as in rainfall amount increases with the size, confirming larger sized features are more organized systems. After all, it is statistically shown that organization of precipitation not only brings about an increase in extreme volumetric rainfall but also an increase in probability of the satellite footprint scale extreme rainfall.

Slope movements triggered by heavy rainfall, November 3–5, 1985, in Virginia and West Virginia, U.S.A.

USGS Publications Warehouse

Jacobson, Robert B.; Cron, Elizabeth D.; McGeehin, John P.

1989-01-01

Study of slope movements triggered by the storm of November 3–5, 1985, in the central Appalachian Mountains, U.S.A., has helped to define the meteorologic conditions leading to slope movements and the relative importance of land cover, bedrock, surficial geology, and geomorphology in slope movement location. This long-duration rainfall at moderate intensities triggered more than 1,000 slope movements in a 1,040-km2 study area. Most were shallow slips and slip-flows in thin colluvium and residuum on shale slopes. Locations of these failures were sensitive to land cover and slope aspect but were relatively insensitive to topographic setting. A few shallow slope movements were triggered by the same rainfall on interbedded limestone, shale, and sandstone. Several large debris slide-avalanches were triggered in sandstone regolith high on ridges in areas of the highest measured rainfall. Most of these sites were on slopes that dip 30 to 35° and lie parallel to bedding planes, presumably the sites of least stability.

Opportunities for multivariate analysis of open spatial datasets to characterize urban flooding risks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gaitan, S.; ten Veldhuis, J. A. E.

2015-06-01

Cities worldwide are challenged by increasing urban flood risks. Precise and realistic measures are required to reduce flooding impacts. However, currently implemented sewer and topographic models do not provide realistic predictions of local flooding occurrence during heavy rain events. Assessing other factors such as spatially distributed rainfall, socioeconomic characteristics, and social sensing, may help to explain probability and impacts of urban flooding. Several spatial datasets have been recently made available in the Netherlands, including rainfall-related incident reports made by citizens, spatially distributed rain depths, semidistributed socioeconomic information, and buildings age. Inspecting the potential of this data to explain the occurrence of rainfall related incidents has not been done yet. Multivariate analysis tools for describing communities and environmental patterns have been previously developed and used in the field of study of ecology. The objective of this paper is to outline opportunities for these tools to explore urban flooding risks patterns in the mentioned datasets. To that end, a cluster analysis is performed. Results indicate that incidence of rainfall-related impacts is higher in areas characterized by older infrastructure and higher population density.

Rainfall statistics changes in Sicily

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Arnone, E.; Pumo, D.; Viola, F.; Noto, L. V.; La Loggia, G.

2013-07-01

Changes in rainfall characteristics are one of the most relevant signs of current climate alterations. Many studies have demonstrated an increase in rainfall intensity and a reduction of frequency in several areas of the world, including Mediterranean areas. Rainfall characteristics may be crucial for vegetation patterns formation and evolution in Mediterranean ecosystems, with important implications, for example, in vegetation water stress or coexistence and competition dynamics. At the same time, characteristics of extreme rainfall events are fundamental for the estimation of flood peaks and quantiles that can be used in many hydrological applications, such as design of the most common hydraulic structures, or planning and management of flood-prone areas. In the past, Sicily has been screened for several signals of possible climate change. Annual, seasonal and monthly rainfall data in the entire Sicilian region have been analyzed, showing a global reduction of total annual rainfall. Moreover, annual maximum rainfall series for different durations have been rarely analyzed in order to detect the presence of trends. Results indicated that for short durations, historical series generally exhibit increasing trends, while for longer durations the trends are mainly negative. Starting from these premises, the aim of this study is to investigate and quantify changes in rainfall statistics in Sicily, during the second half of the last century. Time series of about 60 stations over the region have been processed and screened by using the nonparametric Mann-Kendall test. In particular, extreme events have been analyzed using annual maximum rainfall series at 1, 3, 6, 12 and 24 h duration, while daily rainfall properties have been analyzed in terms of frequency and intensity, also characterizing seasonal rainfall features. Results of extreme events analysis confirmed an increasing trend for rainfall of short durations, especially for 1 h rainfall duration. Conversely, precipitation events of long durations have exhibited a decreased trend. Increase in short-duration precipitation has been observed especially in stations located along the coastline; however, no clear and well-defined spatial pattern has been outlined by the results. Outcomes of analysis for daily rainfall properties have showed that heavy-torrential precipitation events tend to be more frequent at regional scale, while light rainfall events exhibited a negative trend at some sites. Values of total annual precipitation events confirmed a significant negative trend, mainly due to the reduction during the winter season.

The Effects of More Extreme Rainfall Patterns on Infiltration and Nutrient Losses in Agricultural Soils

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hess, L.; Basso, B.; Hinckley, E. L. S.; Robertson, G. P.; Matson, P. A.

2015-12-01

In the coming century, the proportion of total rainfall that falls in heavy storm events is expected to increase in many areas, especially in the US Midwest, a major agricultural region. These changes in rainfall patterns may have consequences for hydrologic flow and nutrient losses, especially in agricultural soils, with potentially negative consequences for receiving ground- and surface waters. We used a tracer experiment to examine how more extreme rainfall patterns may affect the movement of water and solutes through an agricultural soil profile in the upper Midwest, and to what extent tillage may moderate these effects. Two rainfall patterns were created with 5m x 5m rainout shelters at the Kellogg Biological Station LTER site in replicated plots with either conventional tillage or no-till management. Control rainfall treatments received water 3x per week, and extreme rainfall treatments received the same total amount of water but once every two weeks, to simulate less frequent but larger storms. In April 2015, potassium bromide (KBr) was added as a conservative tracer of water flow to all plots, and Br- concentrations in soil water at 1.2m depth were measured weekly from April through July. Soil water Br- concentrations increased and peaked more quickly under the extreme rainfall treatment, suggesting increased infiltration and solute transfer to depth compared to soils exposed to control rainfall patterns. Soil water Br- also increased and peaked more quickly in no-till than in conventional tillage treatments, indicating differences in flow paths between management systems. Soil moisture measured every 15 minutes at 10, 40, and 100cm depths corroborates tracer experiment results: rainfall events simulated in extreme rainfall treatments led to large increases in deep soil moisture, while the smaller rainfall events simulated under control conditions did not. Deep soil moisture in no-till treatments also increased sooner after water application as compared to in conventional soils. Our results suggest that exposure to more extreme rainfall patterns will likely increase infiltration depth and nutrient losses in agricultural soils. In particular, soils under no-till management, which leads to development of preferential flow paths, may be particularly vulnerable to vertical nutrient losses.

Extreme precipitation patterns and reductions of terrestrial ecosystem production across biomes

Treesearch

Yongguang Zhang; M. Susan Moran; Mark A. Nearing; Guillermo E. Ponce Campos; Alfredo R. Huete; Anthony R. Buda; David D. Bosch; Stacey A. Gunter; Stanley G. Kitchen; W. Henry McNab; Jack A. Morgan; Mitchel P. McClaran; Diane S. Montoya; Debra P.C. Peters; Patrick J. Starks

2013-01-01

Precipitation regimes are predicted to shift to more extreme patterns that are characterized by more heavy rainfall events and longer dry intervals, yet their ecological impacts on vegetation production remain uncertain across biomes in natural climatic conditions. This in situ study investigated the effects of these climatic conditions on aboveground net primary...

Comparison of Infiltration Flux in Playa Lakes in Grassland and Cropland Basins, Southern High Plains of Texas

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Playas are the dominant wetland type on the Southern High Plains (SHP) of Texas and capture runoff during periods of heavy rainfall. Observing the hydrologic functions of playa wetlands is important to evaluate their ecological services, which include encouragement of species biodiversity and recha...

3 CFR 8386 - Proclamation 8386 of May 26, 2009. National Hurricane Preparedness Week, 2009

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-01-01

... coastal and inland communities. These powerful storms can cause heavy rainfall, high winds, tornadoes, and storm surges, which can in turn bring severe flooding, power outages, damage to homes and businesses... property of those who face advancing storms. Americans can take basic steps before a hurricane arrives. The...

Unexpected Rift Valley Fever Outbreak, Northern Mauritania

PubMed Central

El Mamy, Ahmed B. Ould; Baba, Mohamed Ould; Barry, Yahya; Isselmou, Katia; Dia, Mamadou L.; Hampate, Ba; Diallo, Mamadou Y.; El Kory, Mohamed Ould Brahim; Diop, Mariam; Lo, Modou Moustapha; Thiongane, Yaya; Bengoumi, Mohammed; Puech, Lilian; Plee, Ludovic; Claes, Filip; Doumbia, Baba

2011-01-01

During September–October 2010, an unprecedented outbreak of Rift Valley fever was reported in the northern Sahelian region of Mauritania after exceptionally heavy rainfall. Camels probably played a central role in the local amplification of the virus. We describe the main clinical signs (hemorrhagic fever, icterus, and nervous symptoms) observed during the outbreak. PMID:22000364

Modeling jointly low, moderate, and heavy rainfall intensities without a threshold selection

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Naveau, Philippe; Huser, Raphael; Ribereau, Pierre; Hannart, Alexis

2016-04-01

In statistics, extreme events are often defined as excesses above a given large threshold. This definition allows hydrologists and flood planners to apply Extreme-Value Theory (EVT) to their time series of interest. Even in the stationary univariate context, this approach has at least two main drawbacks. First, working with excesses implies that a lot of observations (those below the chosen threshold) are completely disregarded. The range of precipitation is artificially shopped down into two pieces, namely large intensities and the rest, which necessarily imposes different statistical models for each piece. Second, this strategy raises a nontrivial and very practical difficultly: how to choose the optimal threshold which correctly discriminates between low and heavy rainfall intensities. To address these issues, we propose a statistical model in which EVT results apply not only to heavy, but also to low precipitation amounts (zeros excluded). Our model is in compliance with EVT on both ends of the spectrum and allows a smooth transition between the two tails, while keeping a low number of parameters. In terms of inference, we have implemented and tested two classical methods of estimation: likelihood maximization and probability weighed moments. Last but not least, there is no need to choose a threshold to define low and high excesses. The performance and flexibility of this approach are illustrated on simulated and hourly precipitation recorded in Lyon, France.

Projection of the change in future extremes over Japan using a cloud-resolving model: (2) Precipitation Extremes and the results of the NHM-1km experiments

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kanada, S.; Nakano, M.; Nakamura, M.; Hayashi, S.; Kato, T.; Kurihara, K.; Sasaki, H.; Uchiyama, T.; Aranami, K.; Honda, Y.; Kitoh, A.

2008-12-01

In order to study changes in the regional climate in the vicinity of Japan during the summer rainy season due to global warming, experiments by a semi-cloud resolving non-hydrostatic model with a horizontal resolution of 5km (NHM-5km) have been conducted from June to October by nesting within the results of the 10-year time-integrated experiments using a hydrostatic atmospheric general circulation model with a horizontal grid of 20 km (AGCM-20km: TL959L60) for the present and future up to the year 2100. A non-hydrostatic model developed by the Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) (JMA-NHM; Saito et al. 2001, 2006) was adopted. Detailed descriptions of the NHM-5km are shown by the poster of Nakano et al. Our results show that rainy days over most of the Japanese Islands will decrease in June and July and increase in August and September in the future climate. Especially, remarkable increases in intense precipitations such as larger than 150 - 300 mm/day are projected from the present to future climate. The 90th percentiles of regional largest values among maximum daily precipitations (R-MDPs) grow 156 to 207 mm/day in the present and future climates, respectively. It is well-known that the horizontal distribution of precipitation, especially the heavy rainfall in the vicinity of Japan, much depends on the topography. Therefore, higher resolution experiments by a cloud-resolving model with a horizontal resolution of 1km (NHM-1km) are one-way nested within the results of NHM-5km. The basic frame and design of the NHM-1km is the same as those of the NHM-5km, but the topography is finer and no cumulus parameterization is used in the NHM-1km experiments. The NHM-1km, which treats the convection and cloud microphysics explicitly, can represent not only horizontal distributions of rainfall in detail but also the 3-dimensional structures of meso-beta-scale convective systems (MCSs). Because of the limitation of computation resources, only heavy rainfall events that rank in top 10 % of all rainfall events are selected for the NHM-1km experiments (Heavy rainfall events are defined by R-MDPs > 156 and 207 mm/day for the present and future climates, respectively, from the results of the NHM-5km). Tentative comparisons between the results of the NHM-1km and NHM-1km experiments reveal that the NHM-1km can re-produce more detailed and realistic horizontal distributions of rainfall in many cases. (This study is supported by the Ministry of Education, Culture, Sports, Science and Technology under the framework of the KAKUSHIN program. Numerical simulations are performed in the Earth Simulator)

Enhancement of magnetic anisotropy in a Mn-Bi heterobimetallic complex.

PubMed

Pearson, Tyler J; Fataftah, Majed S; Freedman, Danna E

2016-09-15

A novel Mn 2+ Bi 3+ heterobimetallic complex, featuring the closest MnBi interaction for a paramagnetic molecular species, exhibits unusually large axial zero-field splitting. We attribute this enhancement to the proximity of Mn 2+ to a heavy main group element, namely, bismuth.

Comparison between snowmelt-runoff and rainfall-runoff nonpoint source pollution in a typical urban catchment in Beijing, China.

PubMed

Chen, Lei; Zhi, Xiaosha; Shen, Zhenyao; Dai, Ying; Aini, Guzhanuer

2018-01-01

As a climate-driven event, nonpoint source (NPS) pollution is caused by rainfall- or snowmelt-runoff processes; however, few studies have compared the characteristics and mechanisms of these two kinds of NPS processes. In this study, three factors relating to urban NPS, including surface dust, snowmelt, and rainfall-runoff processes, were analyzed comprehensively by both field sampling and laboratory experiments. The seasonal variation and leaching characteristics of pollutants in surface dust were explored, and the runoff quality of snowmelt NPS and rainfall NPS were compared. The results indicated that dusts are the main sources of urban NPS and more pollutants are deposited in dust samples during winter and spring. However, pollutants in surface dust showed a low leaching ratio, which indicated most NPS pollutants would be carried as particulate forms. Compared to surface layer, underlying snow contained higher chemical oxygen demand, total suspended solids (TSS), Cu, Fe, Mn, and Pb concentrations, while the event mean concentration of most pollutants in snowmelt tended to be higher in roads. Moreover, the TSS and heavy metal content of snowmelt NPS was always higher than those of rainfall NPS, which indicated the importance of controlling snowmelt pollution for effective water quality management.

Simulation of Sediment Transport Caused by Landslide at Nanhua Reservoir Watershed in Southern Taiwan

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lee, Ming-Hsi; Huang, Cong-Gi; Lin, Huan-Hsuan

2016-04-01

As a result of heavy rainfall, steep topography, young and weak geological formations, earthquakes, loose soils, slope land cultivation and other human disturbance, much area in Taiwan are prone to the occurrence of disastrous mass movements such as landslides and sediment disasters. During recent years, the extreme rainfall events brought huge amounts of rainfall and triggered severe changes in watershed environments. Typhoon Morakot in August 2009 caused severe landslides, debris flow, flooding and sediment disasters induced by record-break rainfall. The maximum rainfall of mountain area in Chiayi, Tainan, Kaohsiung and Pingtung County were over 2,900 mm. The study area is located at Nanhua reservoir watershed in southern Taiwan. The numerical model (HEC-RAS 4.1 and FLO-2D) will be used to simulate the sediment transport caused by landslide and the study will find out the separating location of erosion and deposition in the river, the danger area of riverbank, and the safety of the river terrace village under the return period of 50-year, 100-year and 200-year (such as Typhoon Morakot). The results of this study can provide for the disaster risk management of administrative decisions to lessen the impacts of natural hazards and may also be useful for time-space variation of sediment disasters caused by Climate Change.

Trends in rainfall and temperature extremes in Morocco

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Khomsi, K.; Mahe, G.; Tramblay, Y.; Sinan, M.; Snoussi, M.

2015-02-01

In Morocco, socioeconomic fields are vulnerable to weather extreme events. This work aims to analyze the frequency and the trends of temperature and rainfall extreme events in two contrasted Moroccan regions (the Tensift in the semi-arid South, and the Bouregreg in the sub-humid North), during the second half of the 20th century. This study considers long time series of daily extreme temperatures and rainfall, recorded in the stations of Marrakech and Safi for the Tensift region, and Kasba-Tadla and Rabat-Sale for the Bouregreg region, data from four other stations (Tanger, Fes, Agadir and Ouarzazate) from outside the regions were added. Extremes are defined by using as thresholds the 1st, 5th, 90th, 95th, and 99th percentiles. Results show upward trends in maximum and minimum temperatures of both regions and no generalized trends in rainfall amounts. Changes in cold events are larger than those for warm events, and the number of very cold events decrease significantly in the whole studied area. The southern region is the most affected with the changes of the temperature regime. Most of the trends found in rainfall heavy events are positive with weak magnitudes even though no statistically significant generalized trends could be identified during both seasons.

Rainfall characterisation by application of standardised precipitation index (SPI) in Peninsular Malaysia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yusof, Fadhilah; Hui-Mean, Foo; Suhaila, Jamaludin; Yusop, Zulkifli; Ching-Yee, Kong

2014-02-01

The interpretations of trend behaviour for dry and wet events are analysed in order to verify the dryness and wetness episodes. The fitting distribution of rainfall is computed to classify the dry and wet events by applying the standardised precipitation index (SPI). The rainfall amount for each station is categorised into seven categories, namely extremely wet, severely wet, moderately wet, near normal, moderately dry, severely dry and extremely dry. The computation of the SPI is based on the monsoon periods, which include the northeast monsoon, southwest monsoon and inter-monsoon. The trends of the dry and wet periods were then detected using the Mann-Kendall trend test and the results indicate that the major parts of Peninsular Malaysia are characterised by increasing droughts rather than wet events. The annual trends of drought and wet events of the randomly selected stations from each region also yield similar results. Hence, the northwest and southwest regions are predicted to have a higher probability of drought occurrence during a dry event and not much rain during the wet event. The east and west regions, on the other hand, are going through a significant upward trend that implies lower rainfall during the drought episodes and heavy rainfall during the wet events.

Analysis of rainfall over northern Peru during El Nino: A PCDS application

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Goldberg, R.; Tisnado, G.

1986-01-01

In an examination of GOES satellite data during the 1982 through 1983 El Nino period, the appearance of lee wave cloud patterns was revealed. A correlation was hypothesized relating an anomalous easterly flow across the Andes with the appearance of these wave patterns and with the subsequent onset of intense rainfall. The cloud patterns are belived to be associated with the El Nino period and could be viewed as precursors to significant changes in weather patterns. The ultimate goal of the researchers will be the ability to predict occurrences of rainstorms associated with the appearance of lee waves and related cloud patterns as harbingers of destruction caused by flooding, huaycos, and other catastrophic consequences of heavy and abnormal rainfall. Rainfall data from about 70 stations in northern Peru from 1980 through 1984 were formatted to be utilized within the Pilot Climate Data System (PCDS). This time period includes the 1982 through 1983 El Nino period. As an example of the approach, a well-pronounced lee wave pattern was shown from a GOES satellite image of April 4, 1983. The ground truth data were then displayed via the PCDS to graphically demonstrate the increase in intensity and areal distribution of rainfall in the northern Peruvian area in the next 4 to 5 days.

Towards a Quasi-global precipitation-induced Landslide Detection System using Remote Sensing Information

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Adler, B.; Hong, Y.; Huffman, G.; Negri, A.; Pando, M.

2006-05-01

Landslides and debris flows are one of the most widespread natural hazards on Earth, responsible for thousands of deaths and billions of dollars in property damage per year. Currently, no system exists at either a national or a global scale to monitor or detect rainfall conditions that may trigger landslides. In this study, global landslide susceptibility is mapped using USGS GTOPO30 Digital Elevation, hydrological derivatives (slopes and wetness index etc.) from HYDRO1k data, soil type information downscaled from Digital Soil Map of the World (Sand, Loam, Silt, or Clay etc.), and MODIS land cover/use classification data. These variables are then combined with empirical landslide inventory data, if available, to derive a global landslide susceptibility map at elemental resolution of 1 x 1 km. This map can then be overlain with the driving force, namely rainfall estimates from the TRMM-based Multiple-satellite Precipitation Analysis to identify when areas with significant landslide potential receive heavy rainfall. The relations between rainfall intensity and rainstorm duration are regionally specific and often take the form of a power-law relation. Several empirical landslide-triggering Rainfall Intensity-Duration thresholds are implemented regionally using the 8-year TRMM-based precipitation with or without the global landslide susceptibility map at continuous space and time domain. Finally, the effectiveness of this system is validated by studying several recent deadly landslide/mudslide events. This study aims to build up a prototype quasi-global potential landslide warning system. Spatially-distributed landslide susceptibility maps and regional empirical rainfall intensity-duration thresholds, in combination with real-time rainfall measurements from space and rainfall forecasts from models, will be the basis for this experimental system.

TRMM 3-Year Anniversary

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

2002-01-01

Ever wonder about the rain? Beyond the practicality of needing an umbrella, climate researchers have wondered about the science of rainfall for a long time. But it's only in the past few years that they've begun to roll back some of its secrets. One of their tools for doing so is a powerful satellite called the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission, or TRMM. Now, after three years of continual operation, project scientists have released dramatic new maps of rainfall patterns gathered across a wide band of the Earth. And with measurements from one of the satellite's advanced sensors, meteorologists are now able to calibrate ground-based rain monitoring systems with greater precision than ever before. A complete accounting of the world's total rainfall has long been a major goal of climate researchers. Rain acts as the atmosphere's fundamental engine for heat exchange; every time a raindrop falls, the atmosphere gets churned up and latent heat flows back into the total climate system. Considering that rainfall is the primary driving force of heat in the atmosphere, and that two thirds of all rain falls in the tropics, these measurements are significant for our understanding of overall climate. The above image shows a one month average of rainfall measurements taken by the TRMM's unique precipitation radar during January of 1998. Areas of low rainfall are colored light blue, while regions with heavy rainfal are colored orange and red. TRMM began collecting data in December of 1997, and continues today. For more information about TRMM's 3-year anniversary, read Maps of Falling Water To learn more about the TRMM mission or order TRMM data, see the TRMM Home Page. Image courtesy TRMM Science team and the NASA GSFC Scientific Visualization Studio.

Experimental study on influence of vegetation coverage on runoff in wind-water erosion crisscross region

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Jinhua; Zhang, Ronggang; Sun, Juan

2018-02-01

Using artificial rainfall simulation method, 23 simulation experiments were carried out in water-wind erosion crisscross region in order to analyze the influence of vegetation coverage on runoff and sediment yield. The experimental plots are standard plots with a length of 20m, width of 5m and slope of 15 degrees. The simulation experiments were conducted in different vegetation coverage experimental plots based on three different rainfall intensities. According to the experimental observation data, the influence of vegetation coverage on runoff and infiltration was analyzed. Vegetation coverage has a significant impact on runoff, and the higher the vegetation coverage is, the smaller the runoff is. Under the condition of 0.6mm/min rainfall intensity, the runoff volume from the experimental plot with 18% vegetation coverage was 1.2 times of the runoff from the experimental with 30% vegetation coverage. What’s more, the difference of runoff is more obvious in higher rainfall intensity. If the rainfall intensity reaches 1.32mm/min, the runoff from the experimental plot with 11% vegetation coverage is about 2 times as large as the runoff from the experimental plot with 53%vegetation coverage. Under the condition of small rainfall intensity, the starting time of runoff in the experimental plot with higher vegetation coverage is later than that in the experimental plot with low vegetation coverage. However, under the condition of heavy rainfall intensity, there is no obvious difference in the beginning time of runoff. In addition, the higher the vegetation coverage is, the deeper the rainfall infiltration depth is.The results can provide reference for ecological construction carried out in wind erosion crisscross region with serious soil erosion.

Influence of Offshore Initial Moisture Field and Convection on the Development of Coastal Convection in a Heavy Rainfall Event over South China during the Pre-summer Rainy Season

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lu, Rong; Sun, Jianhua; Fu, Shenming

2017-04-01

This paper utilizes the observation data from the Southern China Monsoon Rainfall Experiment (SCMREX) and the numerical experiments to investigate the influence of moisture amount and convection development over the northern South China Sea on a heavy rainfall event in coastal South China on May 8, 2014. Intensive sounding and wind profiles data reveal that there existed a convergence region formed by the southwesterly and easterly jet in the Pearl River delta, which provided favorable conditions for the development of convection. Whether the initial relative humidity field was increased or decreased in the offshore area, or turning off sensible and latent heat release from the cumulus and microphysical processes, had significant effects on the intensity and movement of convection in the coastal areas of Guangdong owing to the adjustment of temperature and wind fields. Especially, when increasing offshore initial humidity, prosperous sea convection modified the circulation in the entire simulation area, and suppressed the development of convection over land. Moreover, if sensible and latent heat from cumulus and microphysical processes was turned off, the low-level jets could reach further north, and the convective system moved to the northeast in the later stage. These experiments indicate that offshore initial moisture filed and convection activity are indeed important for precipitation forecast in the coastal areas, therefore it's necessary to enhance offshore observation and data assimilation methods in the future.

Topographic changes and their driving factors after 2008 Wenchuan Earthquake

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, C.; Wang, M.; Xie, J.; Liu, K.

2017-12-01

The Wenchuan Ms 8.0 Earthquake caused topographic change in the stricken areas because of the formation of numerous coseismic landslides. The emergence of new landslides and debris flows and movement of loose materials under the driving force of heavy rainfall could further shape the local topography. Dynamic topographic changes in mountainous areas stricken by major earthquakes have a strong linkage to the development and occurrence of secondary disasters. However, little attention has been paid to continuously monitoring mountain environment change after such earthquakes. A digital elevation model (DEM) is the main feature of the terrain surface, in our research, we extracted DEM in 2013 and 2015 of a typical mountainous area severely impacted by the 2008 Wenchuan earthquake from the ZY-3 stereo pair images with validation by field measurement. Combined with the elevation dataset in 2002 and 2010, we quantitatively assessed elevation changes in different years and qualitatively analyzed spatiotemporal variation of the terrain and mass movement across the study area. The results show that the earthquake stricken area experienced substantial elevation changes caused by seismic forces and subsequent rainfalls. Meanwhile, deposits after the earthquake are mainly accumulated on the river-channels and mountain ridges and deep gullies which increase the risk of other geo-hazards. And the heavy rainfalls after the earthquake have become the biggest driver of elevation reduction, which overwhelmed elevation increase during the major earthquake. Our study provided a better understanding of subsequent hazards and risks faced by residents and communities stricken by major earthquakes.

Rainfall and Seasonal Movement of the Weeks Creek Landslide, San Mateo County, California

USGS Publications Warehouse

Wieczorek, Gerald F.; Reid, Mark E.; Jodicke, Walter; Pearson, Chris; Wilcox, Grant

2007-01-01

Introduction Many different types of landslide occur in the Santa Cruz Mountains of San Mateo County, Calif. (Brabb and Pampeyan, 1972); most slope movement is triggered by strong earthquakes, heavy rainfall, or shoreline erosion. In this area, shallow landslides of loose soil and rock, which may transform into debris flows, commonly occur during individual storms when rainfall exceeds a threshold of intensity and duration (Cannon and Ellen, 1985; Wieczorek and Sarmiento, 1988; Wilson and Wieczorek, 1995). In contrast, deeper rotational and translational slides (Varnes, 1978) typically begin to move only after days to weeks or months of heavy rain. Once started, they can continue to move for months during and after a heavy rainfall season, for example, the Scenic Drive landslide at La Honda, Calif. (Jayko and others, 1998; Wells and others, 2005, 2006). Although the rainfall characteristics triggering rapid, shallow landslides have been documented (Wieczorek, 1987; Cannon and Ellen, 1988), the rainfall conditions leading to repeated deeper-seated slope movements are less well known. The Weeks Creek landslide (Adam, 1975), near the western crest of the Santa Cruz Mountains north of La Honda in San Mateo County (fig. 1), consists of a large prehistoric section containing a historically active section; both sections have earthflow morphologies. The entire landslide mass, which extends about 1,000 m westward from an elevation of 220 m down to an elevation of 120 m, is about 300 to 370 m wide (Cole and others, 1994); The prehistoric section of the landslide is about 30 m deep and approximately 10 million m3 in volume (Cole and others, 1994). The smaller, historically active portion of the Weeks Creek landslide (fig. 1) is only approximately 500 m long, 200 m wide, and 13 m deep (Cole and others, 1994). Near the landslide, the Santa Cruz Mountains consist of tightly folded, Tertiary sedimentary bedrock materials of the Butano sandstone and San Lorenzo Formations (Eocene through Lower Oligocene). These sedimentary bedrock materials are locally intruded by Oligocene diabase and capped by Oligocene through Miocene basalt of the Mindego Formation (Brabb, 1980; Cole and others, 1994). Within the active landslide, as documented from multiple borings by Cole and others (1994), deeply weathered mudstone and sandstone of the San Lorenzo Formation extends to a depth of about 10 to 13 m, where the active shear zone is located. Beneath this, within the deeper prehistoric landslide, mudstone extends to a depth of about 24 to 32 m and is underlain by strong diabase bedrock. The basal rupture surface of the prehistoric landslide is located near the mudstone/diabase contact (Cole and others, 1994). The historically active section of the Weeks Creek landslide, which is crossed by the La Honda road (California Highway 84, fig. 1), was first noticed to partially move during the great 1906 San Francisco earthquake (Lawson, 1908). It has moved repeatedly over the ensuing years but generally only during wet rainy seasons. For some of these active years, ground cracks and lateral displacements were recorded by local residents Walter Jodicke and Chris Pearson, as well as by U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) personnel. In spring 2006, fresh ground cracks were noted in parts of the prehistoric, previously inactive section of the landslide. In this report, we present daily rainfall measurements from 1973 through 2006 obtained at the landslide site and summarize available observations of slope movement over that period. In addition, we present more detailed observations of rainfall, ground-water pressure, and slope movement for three water years spanning the period 1981-1984. We conclude with some preliminary observations about rainfall and slope movement at this site.

Interpretation of heavy rainfall spatial distribution in mountain watersheds by copula functions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Grossi, Giovanna; Balistrocchi, Matteo

2016-04-01

The spatial distribution of heavy rainfalls can strongly influence flood dynamics in mountain watersheds, depending on their geomorphologic features, namely orography, slope, land covers and soil types. Unfortunately, the direct observation of rainfall fields by meteorological radar is very difficult in this situation, so that interpolation of rain gauge observations or downscaling of meteorological predictions must be adopted to derive spatial rainfall distributions. To do so, various stochastic and physically based approaches are already available, even though the first one is the most familiar in hydrology. Indeed, Kriging interpolation procedures represent very popular techniques to face this problem by means of a stochastic approach. A certain number of restrictive assumptions and parameter uncertainties however affects Kriging. Many alternative formulations and additional procedures were therefore developed during the last decades. More recently, copula functions (Joe, 1997; Nelsen, 2006; Salvadori et al. 2007) were suggested to provide a more straightforward solution to carry out spatial interpolations of hydrologic variables (Bardossy & Pegram; 2009). Main advantages lie in the possibility of i) assessing the dependence structure relating to rainfall variables independently of marginal distributions, ii) expressing the association degree through rank correlation coefficients, iii) implementing marginal distributions and copula functions belonging to different models to develop complex joint distribution functions, iv) verifying the model reliability by effective statistical tests (Genest et al., 2009). A suitable case study to verify these potentialities is provided by the Taro River, a right-bank tributary of the Po River (northern Italy), whose contributing area amounts to about 2˙000 km2. The mountain catchment area is divided into two similar watersheds, so that spatial distribution is crucial in extreme flood event generation. A quite well diffused hydro-meteorological network, consisting of about 30 rain gauges and 10 hydrometers, monitors this medium-size watershed. A decade of rainfall-runoff event observations are available. Severe rainfall events were identified with reference to a main raingauge station, by using an interevent time definition and a depth threshold. Rainfall depths were thus derived and the spatial variability of their association degree was represented by using the Kendall coefficient. A unique copula model based on Gumbel copula function was finally found to be suitable to represent the dependence structure relating to rainfall depths observed in distinct raingauges. Bardossy A., Pegram G. (2009), Copula based multisite model for daily precipitation simulation, Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 13, 2299-2314. Genest C., Rémilland B., Beaudoin D. (2009), Goodness-of-fit tests for copulas: a review and a power study, Insur. Math. Econ., 44(2), 199-213. Joe H. (1997), Multivariate models and dependence concepts, Chapman and Hall, London. Nelsen R. B. (2006), An introduction to copulas, second ed., Springer, New York. Salvadori G., De Michele C., Kottegoda N. T., Rosso R. (2007), Extremes in nature: an approach using copulas, Springer, Dordrecht, The Nederlands.

Landslides induced by heavy rainfall in July 2012 in Northern Kyushu District, Japan and the influence of long term rainfall increase comparing with the slope destabilization due to strong seismic shaking

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kubota, Tetsuya; Shinohara, Yoshinori; Aditian, Aril

2013-04-01

1. Objective We had a deluge in July 2012 in the northern Kyushu district with intense rainfall of 800mm and 108mm/hr. This intensity yielded countless traces of debris flow and landslides, slope failures that induced tremendous damage and causalities in the area. Hence, several field investigations and reconnaissance tasks were conducted to delve into this sediment-related disaster. The various results and the information obtained through this investigation were reported, mentioning the damage, the meteorological condition, geologic-geomorphologic features and hydraulic characteristics of the debris flows, vegetation effects, and the influence of the climate change. Increase in rainfall that may be induced by the global climate change is obvious in Kyushu district, Japan, according to the analysis of rain data observed in various locations including mountainside points that are not influenced by local warming due to urbanization. On this point of view, we are intrigued to elucidate the response of landslide to this increase in rainfall. Hence, its long term impact on this landslide disaster is also analyzed comparing with the slope destabilization due to strong seismic shaking. 2. Method and target areas Field investigation on landslides slopes, slope failures and torrents where debris flows occurred are conducted to obtain the geologic data, geo-structure, vegetation feature, soil samples and topographic data i.e. cross sections, then soil shear tests and soil permeability tests are also conducted. The rainfall data at the nearest rain observatory were obtained from the database of Japan meteorological agency. The long term impact on the slope stability at some slopes in the area is analyzed by the finite element method (FEM) combined with rain infiltration and seepage analysis with the long term rainfall fluctuation data, obtaining factor of safety ( Fs) on real landslide slopes. The results are compared with the destabilized influence on the slopes due to the soil strength reduction by seismic shaking. The target areas are located in northern Kyushu district, western Japan where they often have severe landslide disasters. The geology in research areas consists of Paleozoic and Mesozoic rocks (mainly schist, slate) and Quaternary volcanic sediment such as Aso volcano body. The vegetation consists of mainly Japanese cypress, cedar or bamboo. 3. Result and consideration Consequently, the long term rainfall increase in the region such as increment of approximately 20 mm/hr for rain intensity Ri in 36 years is confirmed statistically using Kendall's rank correlation, and it is found that its impact on slope stability is considerable and critical in other cases. In the sample landslide slopes, even the increase in rain of duration for only 10 years has impact to a certain extent on their stabilities in terms of Fs. The Fs calculated with rains in previous decade is higher than 1.0 that corresponds to stable state, whereas the Fs with present rains is lower than 1.0 such as 0.99 which means unstable state. Extremely heavy rainfall with this impact is generally cause extreme ground water pressure in the slope. It is also obvious that the extreme ground water content rendered even small landslides liquefied to be source of destructive debris flows. In this disaster, especially in the Aso volcanic region, tremendous number of debris flow occurred and even the talus cone slopes which are usually stable collapsed to flow down. However, the influence of the long term rainfall increase on the slopes (such as 1% decrease in Fs) is not relatively small compared with the destabilization of the slopes due to the reduction of soil strength by seismic shaking (8~9 % reduction in Fs after seismic shaking of even 490gal). 4. Conclusion In the disaster in July 2012, many landslides and debris flows originated from landslides induced by concentrated underground water supplied by the heavy rainfall occurred. The increase of rainfall due to climate change with the increasing rate such as 20 mm/hr surely has impact on almost landslide slopes in aspects of slope stability, although the influence of the long term rainfall increase on the slopes is relatively small compared with the destabilization of the slopes due to the reduction of soil strength by seismic shakings. Therefore, with this rain increase rate, it is possible for many forest slopes or natural slopes to become unstable and cause landslide disasters especially after potential strong earthquake in the near future.

Evaluation of the Potential of NASA Multi-satellite Precipitation Analysis in Global Landslide Hazard Assessment

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hong, Yang; Adler, Robert F.; Huffman, George J.

2007-01-01

Landslides are one of the most widespread natural hazards on Earth, responsible for thousands of deaths and billions of dollars in property damage every year. In the U.S. alone landslides occur in every state, causing an estimated $2 billion in damage and 25- 50 deaths each year. Annual average loss of life from landslide hazards in Japan is 170. The situation is much worse in developing countries and remote mountainous regions due to lack of financial resources and inadequate disaster management ability. Recently, a landslide buried an entire village on the Philippines Island of Leyte on Feb 17,2006, with at least 1800 reported deaths and only 3 houses left standing of the original 300. Intense storms with high-intensity , long-duration rainfall have great potential to trigger rapidly moving landslides, resulting in casualties and property damage across the world. In recent years, through the availability of remotely sensed datasets, it has become possible to conduct global-scale landslide hazard assessment. This paper evaluates the potential of the real-time NASA TRMM-based Multi-satellite Precipitation Analysis (TMPA) system to advance our understanding of and predictive ability for rainfall-triggered landslides. Early results show that the landslide occurrences are closely associated with the spatial patterns and temporal distribution of rainfall characteristics. Particularly, the number of landslide occurrences and the relative importance of rainfall in triggering landslides rely on the influence of rainfall attributes [e.g. rainfall climatology, antecedent rainfall accumulation, and intensity-duration of rainstorms). TMPA precipitation data are available in both real-time and post-real-time versions, which are useful to assess the location and timing of rainfall-triggered landslide hazards by monitoring landslide-prone areas while receiving heavy rainfall. For the purpose of identifying rainfall-triggered landslides, an empirical global rainfall intensity-duration threshold is developed by examining a number of landslide occurrences and their corresponding TMPA precipitation characteristics across the world. These early results , in combination with TRMM real-time precipitation estimation system, may form a starting point for developing an operational early warning system for rainfall-triggered landslides around the globe.

Tundra water budget and implications of precipitation underestimation

PubMed Central

Hinzman, Larry D.; Kane, Douglas L.; Oechel, Walter C.; Tweedie, Craig E.; Zona, Donatella

2017-01-01

Abstract Difficulties in obtaining accurate precipitation measurements have limited meaningful hydrologic assessment for over a century due to performance challenges of conventional snowfall and rainfall gauges in windy environments. Here, we compare snowfall observations and bias adjusted snowfall to end‐of‐winter snow accumulation measurements on the ground for 16 years (1999–2014) and assess the implication of precipitation underestimation on the water balance for a low‐gradient tundra wetland near Utqiagvik (formerly Barrow), Alaska (2007–2009). In agreement with other studies, and not accounting for sublimation, conventional snowfall gauges captured 23–56% of end‐of‐winter snow accumulation. Once snowfall and rainfall are bias adjusted, long‐term annual precipitation estimates more than double (from 123 to 274 mm), highlighting the risk of studies using conventional or unadjusted precipitation that dramatically under‐represent water balance components. Applying conventional precipitation information to the water balance analysis produced consistent storage deficits (79 to 152 mm) that were all larger than the largest actual deficit (75 mm), which was observed in the unusually low rainfall summer of 2007. Year‐to‐year variability in adjusted rainfall (±33 mm) was larger than evapotranspiration (±13 mm). Measured interannual variability in partitioning of snow into runoff (29% in 2008 to 68% in 2009) in years with similar end‐of‐winter snow accumulation (180 and 164 mm, respectively) highlights the importance of the previous summer's rainfall (25 and 60 mm, respectively) on spring runoff production. Incorrect representation of precipitation can therefore have major implications for Arctic water budget descriptions that in turn can alter estimates of carbon and energy fluxes. PMID:29081549

Tundra water budget and implications of precipitation underestimation.

PubMed

Liljedahl, Anna K; Hinzman, Larry D; Kane, Douglas L; Oechel, Walter C; Tweedie, Craig E; Zona, Donatella

2017-08-01

Difficulties in obtaining accurate precipitation measurements have limited meaningful hydrologic assessment for over a century due to performance challenges of conventional snowfall and rainfall gauges in windy environments. Here, we compare snowfall observations and bias adjusted snowfall to end-of-winter snow accumulation measurements on the ground for 16 years (1999-2014) and assess the implication of precipitation underestimation on the water balance for a low-gradient tundra wetland near Utqiagvik (formerly Barrow), Alaska (2007-2009). In agreement with other studies, and not accounting for sublimation, conventional snowfall gauges captured 23-56% of end-of-winter snow accumulation. Once snowfall and rainfall are bias adjusted, long-term annual precipitation estimates more than double (from 123 to 274 mm), highlighting the risk of studies using conventional or unadjusted precipitation that dramatically under-represent water balance components. Applying conventional precipitation information to the water balance analysis produced consistent storage deficits (79 to 152 mm) that were all larger than the largest actual deficit (75 mm), which was observed in the unusually low rainfall summer of 2007. Year-to-year variability in adjusted rainfall (±33 mm) was larger than evapotranspiration (±13 mm). Measured interannual variability in partitioning of snow into runoff (29% in 2008 to 68% in 2009) in years with similar end-of-winter snow accumulation (180 and 164 mm, respectively) highlights the importance of the previous summer's rainfall (25 and 60 mm, respectively) on spring runoff production. Incorrect representation of precipitation can therefore have major implications for Arctic water budget descriptions that in turn can alter estimates of carbon and energy fluxes.

Local influence of south-east France topography and land cover on the distribution and characteristics of intense rainfall cells

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Renard, Florent

2017-04-01

The Greater Lyon area is strongly built up, grouping 58 communes and a population of 1.3 million in approximately 500 km2. The flood risk is high as the territory is crossed by two large watercourses and by streams with torrential flow. Floods may also occur in case of runoff after heavy rain or because of a rise in the groundwater level. The whole territory can therefore be affected, and it is necessary to possess in-depth knowledge of the depths, causes and consequences of rainfall to achieve better management of precipitation in urban areas and to reduce flood risk. This study is thus focused on the effects of topography and land cover on the occurrence, intensity and area of intense rainfall cells. They are identified by local radar meteorology (C-band) combined with a processing algorithm running in a geographic information system (GIS) which identified 109,979 weighted mean centres of them in a sample composed of the five most intense rainfall events from 2001 to 2005. First, analysis of spatial distribution at an overall scale is performed, completed by study at a more detailed scale. The results show that the distribution of high-intensity rainfall cells is spread in cluster form. Subsequently, comparison of intense rainfall cells with the topography shows that cell density is closely linked with land slope but that, above all, urbanised zones feature nearly twice as many rainfall cells as farm land or forest, with more intense intensity.

[Hydrology and water quality of rainfall-runoff in combined sewerage system along Suzhou Creek in central Shanghai].

PubMed

Cheng, Jiang; Yang, Kai; Huang, Xiao-Fang; Lü, Yong-Peng

2009-07-15

In order to obtain the processes of hydrology and water quality of urban combined sewerage system (CSS) in highly urbanized region, the precipitation, discharge and pollutant concentration of four different intensity rainfall (light rain, moderate rain, heavy rain and storm) were measured from Jul. to Sep. 2007 in the Chendulu CSS along Suzhou Creek in Shanghai. The results show that the shapes of runoff graph are similar to rainfall graph, with a weaker fluctuation range and a 15-25 min delay between rainfall and runoff graph. Runoff coefficients of the four different rainfall are 0.33, 0.62, 0.67 and 0.73, respectively. The 30/30 first flush phenomenon is found in Chendulu CSS. The peak of pollutant concentration graph lags rainfall peak about 30-40 min. The pH and event mean concentration (EMC) of Cu, Zn, Cr, Cd, Pb and Ni totally measure up to environmental quality standards V for surface water of China besides COD, BOD5, NH4(+) -N and TP, and the EMC of COD, BOD5, NH4(+) -N and TP are 225.0-544.1, 31.5-98.9, 8.9-44.2 and 1.98-3.52 mg x L(-1), respectively. The rainfall-runoff pollutant concentration in Chendulu CSS is close to those of other foreign cites. At the confidence level of p < 0.01, good relationships exist between SS and COD, BOD5, NH4(+) -N and TP, respectively, and the average proportion of particulate organic pollutant and nutrient is 70.21%.

Simulation of local convective rainfall over metropolitan area on 16 August 2015 using high resolution model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lee, Y. H.; Min, K. H.

2017-12-01

We investigated the ability of high-resolution numerical weather prediction (NWP) model (nested grid spacing at 500 m) in simulating convective precipitation event over the Seoul metropolitan area on 16 August 2015. Intense rainfall occurred from 0930 UTC to 1030 UTC and subsequent trailing precipitation lasted until 1400 UTC. The synoptic condition for the convective event was characterized by a large value of convective available potential energy (CAPE) at the outer edge of a meso-high pressure system. Observational analysis showed that triggering mechanism for convective rainfall was provided by the convergence of northeasterly wind which was driven by a cold pool in the northeastern Kyonggi province. The cold pool formed after heavy rain occurred in northeastern Kyonggi province at 0500UTC. Several experiments were performed in order to evaluate the sensitivity of different initial conditions (IC12, IC18, IC00, IC06) and the impact of data assimilation (IC06A) on simulating the convective event. The quantitative precipitation forecasts (QPF) appeared to vary widely among the experiments, depending on the timing of ICs that were chosen. QPF amount was underestimated in all experiments when data assimilation was not performed. Among the four experiments, QPF amounts and locations were better simulated in the 1200 UTC 15 August (IC12) run due to large values of CAPE in late afternoon and the presence of low-level convergence zone in the metropolitan area. Although 0600 UTC 16 August (IC06) run simulated the largest CAPE in late afternoon, the location and amount of heavy rainfall were significantly different from observations. IC06 did not simulate the convergence of low-level wind associated with the mesoscale cold pool. However, when assimilation of surface observations and radar data at 0600 UTC was performed (IC06A), the simulation reproduced the location and amount of rainfall reasonably well, indicating that high-resolution NWP model with data assimilation can predict the local convective precipitation event with a short-life time (1 3 hours) effectively within 6 hours.

Effects of Cumulus Parameterization on the U.S. Summer Precipitation Prediction by the Regional Climate-Weather Research and Forecasting Model (CWRF)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Qiao, F.; Liang, X.

2011-12-01

Accurate prediction of U.S. summer precipitation, including its geographic distribution, the occurrence frequency and intensity, and diurnal cycle, has been a long-standing problem for most climate and weather models. This study employs the Climate-Weather Research and Forecasting model (CWRF) to investigate the effects of cumulus parameterization on prediction of these key precipitation features during the summers of 1993 and 2008 when severe floods occurred over the U.S. Midwest. Among the 12 widely-used cumulus schemes incorporated in the CWRF, the Ensemble Cumulus Parameterization modified from G3 (ECP) scheme and the Zhang-McFarland cumulus scheme modified by Liang (ZML) well reproduce the geographic distributions of observed 1993 and 2008 floods, albeit both slightly underestimating the maximum amount. However, the ZML scheme greatly overestimates the rainfall amount over the North American Monsoon region and Southeast U.S. while the ECP scheme has a better performance over the entire U.S. Compared to global general circulations models that tend to produce too frequent rainy events at reduced intensity, the CWRF better captures both frequency and intensity of extreme events (heavy rainfall and dry bells). However, most existing cumulus schemes in the CWRF are likely to convert atmospheric moisture into rainfall too fast, leading to less rainy days and stronger heavy rainfall events. A few cumulus schemes can depict the diurnal characteristics in certain but not all the regions over the U.S. For example, the Grell scheme shows its superiority in reproducing the eastward diurnal phase transition and the nocturnal peaks over the Great Plains, whereas the other schemes all fail in capturing this feature. By investigating the critical trigger function(s) that enable these cumulus schemes to capture the observed features, it provides opportunity to better understand the underlying mechanisms that drive the diurnal variation, and thus significantly improves the U.S. summer rainfall diurnal cycle prediction. These will be discussed. For an oral presentation at AGU Fall Meeting 2011 A15: Cloud, Convection, Precipitation, and Radiation: Observations and Modeling, San Francisco, California, USA, 5-9 December 2011.

The analysis of heavy metal in leaching liquid of coal

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cao, Hongmei; Li, Guanglou; Zhang, Lu

2018-02-01

In this paper, heavy metals in coal were extracted by pure water to simulate the leaching effect of natural precipitation or artificial rainfall on outdoor storage of coal. The results show that the leaching liquid pH was slightly declining, and Cu, Zn, Pb, Cd were in μg/L level, far less than the hazardous waste identification standard of GB5085.3-2007. It suggests that leaching liquid was less harmful to environment when coal was immersed by big amount of water. In the case of spray or precipitation less, the pH drop was more obvious, leaching of heavy metals more, and the general elution of the initial dissolution of the most obvious. Although the amount of small but more toxic, the relevant management should be alert to its harmful.

Evolution of the global water cycle on Mars: The geological evidence

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Baker, V. R.; Gulick, V. C.

1993-01-01

The geological evidence for active water cycling early in the history of Mars (Noachian geological system or heavy bombardment) consists almost exclusively of fluvial valley networks in the heavily cratered uplands of the planet. It is commonly assumed that these landforms required explanation by atmospheric processes operating above the freezing point of water and at high pressure to allow rainfall and liquid surface runoff. However, it has also been documented that nearly all valley networks probably formed by subsurface outflow and sapping erosion involving groundwater outflow prior to surface-water flow. The prolonged ground-water flow also requires extensive water cycling to maintain hydraulic gradients, but is this done via rainfall recharge, as in terrestrial environments?

Environmental impact of introducing plant covers in the taluses of terraces: Implications for mitigating agricultural soil erosion and runoff

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Southeastern Spain, particularly the coast of Granada and Málaga, is an important region for subtropical cultivation. Orchards have been established there on the slopes of the mountainous areas in constructed terraces. The climate is characterized by heavy periodic rainfall that is variable in space...

The Example of Eastern Africa: the dynamic of Rift Valley fever and tools for monitoring virus activity

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Rift Valley fever is a mosquito-borne viral zoonosis that primarily affects animals but also has the capacity to infect humans. Outbreaks of this disease in eastern Africa are closely associated with periods of heavy rainfall and forecasting models and early warning systems have been developed to en...

Record Balkan floods of 2014 linked to planetary wave resonance.

PubMed

Stadtherr, Lisa; Coumou, Dim; Petoukhov, Vladimir; Petri, Stefan; Rahmstorf, Stefan

2016-04-01

In May 2014, the Balkans were hit by a Vb-type cyclone that brought disastrous flooding and severe damage to Bosnia and Herzegovina, Serbia, and Croatia. Vb cyclones migrate from the Mediterranean, where they absorb warm and moist air, to the north, often causing flooding in central/eastern Europe. Extreme rainfall events are increasing on a global scale, and both thermodynamic and dynamical mechanisms play a role. Where thermodynamic aspects are generally well understood, there is large uncertainty associated with current and future changes in dynamics. We study the climatic and meteorological factors that influenced the catastrophic flooding in the Balkans, where we focus on large-scale circulation. We show that the Vb cyclone was unusually stationary, bringing extreme rainfall for several consecutive days, and that this situation was likely linked to a quasi-stationary circumglobal Rossby wave train. We provide evidence that this quasi-stationary wave was amplified by wave resonance. Statistical analysis of daily spring rainfall over the Balkan region reveals significant upward trends over 1950-2014, especially in the high quantiles relevant for flooding events. These changes cannot be explained by simple thermodynamic arguments, and we thus argue that dynamical processes likely played a role in increasing flood risks over the Balkans.

Analysis of the daily rainfall events over India using a new long period (1901-2010) high resolution (0.25° × 0.25°) gridded rainfall data set

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pai, D. S.; Sridhar, Latha; Badwaik, M. R.; Rajeevan, M.

2015-08-01

In this study, analysis of the long term climatology, variability and trends in the daily rainfall events of ≥5 mm [or daily rainfall (DR) events] during the southwest monsoon season (June-September) over four regions of India; south central India (SCI), north central India (NCI), northeast India (NEI) and west coast (WC) have been presented. For this purpose, a new high spatial resolution (0.25° × 0.25°) daily gridded rainfall data set covering 110 years (1901-2010) over the Indian main land has been used. The association of monsoon low pressure systems (LPSs) with the DR events of various intensities has also been examined. Major portion of the rainfall over these regions during the season was received in the form of medium rainfall (≥5-100 mm) or moderate rainfall (MR) events. The mean seasonal cycle of the daily frequency of heavy rainfall (HR) (≥100-150 mm) or HR events and very heavy rainfall (VHR) (≥150 mm) or VHR events over each of the four regions showed peak at different parts of the season. The peak in the mean daily HR and VHR events occurred during middle of July to middle of August over SCI, during late part of June to early part of July over NCI, during middle of June to early July over NEI, and during late June to middle July over WC. Significant long term trends in the frequency and intensity of the DR events were observed in all the four geographical regions. Whereas the intensity of the DR events over all the four regions showed significant positive trends during the second half and the total period, the signs and magnitude of the long term trends in the frequency of the various categories of DR events during the total period and its two halves differed from the region to the region. The trend analysis revealed increased disaster potential for instant flooding over SCI and NCI during the recent years due to significant increasing trends in the frequency (areal coverage) and intensity of the HR and VHR events during the recent half of the data period. However, there is increased disaster potential over NEI and WC due to the increasing trends in the intensity of the rainfall events. There is strong association between the LPS days and the DR events in both the spatial and temporal scales. In all the four regions, the contributions to the total MR events by the LPS days were nearly equal. On the other hand, there was relatively large regional difference in the number of combined HR and VHR events associated with LPS days particularly that associated with monsoon depression (LPS stronger than monsoon depression) days. The possible reasons for the same have also been discussed. The increasing trend in the monsoon low (low pressure) days post 1970s is the primary reason for the observed significant increasing trends in the HR and VHR events over SCI and NCI and decreasing trend in HR events over NEI during the recent half (1956-2010). This is in spite of the decreasing trend in the MD days.

A Case Study of Urbanization Impact on Summer Precipitation in the Greater Beijing Metropolitan Area. Urban Heat Island Versus Aerosol Effects

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Zhong, Shi; Qian, Yun; Zhao, Chun

Convection-resolving ensemble simulations using the WRF-Chem model coupled with a single-layer Urban Canopy Model (UCM) are conducted to investigate the individual and combined impacts of land use and anthropogenic pollutant emissions from urbanization on a heavy rainfall event in the Greater Beijing Metropolitan Area (GBMA) in China. The simulation with the urbanization effect included generally captures the spatial pattern and temporal variation of the rainfall event. An improvement of precipitation is found in the experiment including aerosol effect on both clouds and radiation. The expanded urban land cover and increased aerosols have an opposite effect on precipitation processes, with themore » latter playing a more dominant role, leading to suppressed convection and rainfall over the upstream (northwest) area, and enhanced convection and more precipitation in the downstream (southeast) region of the GBMA. In addition, the influence of aerosol indirect effect is found to overwhelm that of direct effect on precipitation in this rainfall event. Increased aerosols induce more cloud droplets with smaller size, which favors evaporative cooling and reduce updrafts and suppress convection over the upstream (northwest) region in the early stage of the rainfall event. As the rainfall system propagates southeastward, more latent heat is released due to the freezing of larger number of smaller cloud drops that are lofted above the freezing level, which is responsible for the increased updraft strength and convective invigoration over the downstream (southeast) area.« less

Have Tropical Cyclones Been Feeding More Extreme Rainfall?

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lau, K.-M.; Zhou, Y. P.; Wu, H.-T.

2008-01-01

We have conducted a study of the relationship between tropical cyclone (TC) and extreme rain events using GPCP and TRMM rainfall data, and storm track data for July through November (JASON) in the North Atlantic (NAT) and the western North Pacific (WNP). Extreme rain events are defined in terms of percentile rainrate, and TC-rain by rainfall associated with a named TC. Results show that climatologically, 8% of rain events and 17% of the total rain amount in NAT are accounted by TCs, compared to 9% of rain events and 21% of rain amount in WNP. The fractional contribution of accumulated TC-rain to total rain, Omega, increases nearly linearly as a function of rainrate. Extending the analyses using GPCP pentad data for 1979-2005, and for the post-SSM/I period (1988-2005), we find that while there is no significant trend in the total JASON rainfall over NAT or WNP, there is a positive significant trend in heavy rain over both basins for the 1979-2005 period, but not for the post-SSM/I period. Trend analyses of Omega for both periods indicate that TCs have been feeding increasingly more to rainfall extremes in NAT, where the expansion of the warm pool area can explain slight more than 50% of the change in observed trend in total TC rainfall. In WNP, trend signals for Omega are mixed, and the long-term relationship between TC rain and warm pool areas are strongly influenced by interannual and interdecadal variability.

Climate Shocks and Migration: An Agent-Based Modeling Approach.

PubMed

Entwisle, Barbara; Williams, Nathalie E; Verdery, Ashton M; Rindfuss, Ronald R; Walsh, Stephen J; Malanson, George P; Mucha, Peter J; Frizzelle, Brian G; McDaniel, Philip M; Yao, Xiaozheng; Heumann, Benjamin W; Prasartkul, Pramote; Sawangdee, Yothin; Jampaklay, Aree

2016-09-01

This is a study of migration responses to climate shocks. We construct an agent-based model that incorporates dynamic linkages between demographic behaviors, such as migration, marriage, and births, and agriculture and land use, which depend on rainfall patterns. The rules and parameterization of our model are empirically derived from qualitative and quantitative analyses of a well-studied demographic field site, Nang Rong district, Northeast Thailand. With this model, we simulate patterns of migration under four weather regimes in a rice economy: 1) a reference, 'normal' scenario; 2) seven years of unusually wet weather; 3) seven years of unusually dry weather; and 4) seven years of extremely variable weather. Results show relatively small impacts on migration. Experiments with the model show that existing high migration rates and strong selection factors, which are unaffected by climate change, are likely responsible for the weak migration response.

Climate Shocks and Migration: An Agent-Based Modeling Approach

PubMed Central

Entwisle, Barbara; Williams, Nathalie E.; Verdery, Ashton M.; Rindfuss, Ronald R.; Walsh, Stephen J.; Malanson, George P.; Mucha, Peter J.; Frizzelle, Brian G.; McDaniel, Philip M.; Yao, Xiaozheng; Heumann, Benjamin W.; Prasartkul, Pramote; Sawangdee, Yothin; Jampaklay, Aree

2016-01-01

This is a study of migration responses to climate shocks. We construct an agent-based model that incorporates dynamic linkages between demographic behaviors, such as migration, marriage, and births, and agriculture and land use, which depend on rainfall patterns. The rules and parameterization of our model are empirically derived from qualitative and quantitative analyses of a well-studied demographic field site, Nang Rong district, Northeast Thailand. With this model, we simulate patterns of migration under four weather regimes in a rice economy: 1) a reference, ‘normal’ scenario; 2) seven years of unusually wet weather; 3) seven years of unusually dry weather; and 4) seven years of extremely variable weather. Results show relatively small impacts on migration. Experiments with the model show that existing high migration rates and strong selection factors, which are unaffected by climate change, are likely responsible for the weak migration response. PMID:27594725

Series of Storms Battering California Tracked by NASA AIRS Instrument

NASA Image and Video Library

2017-01-13

A series of atmospheric rivers that brought drought-relieving rains, heavy snowfall and flooding to California this week is highlighted in a new movie created with satellite data from the Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS) instrument on NASA's Aqua satellite. The images of atmospheric water vapor were collected by AIRS between January 7 and 11. They show the amount of moisture present in the atmosphere and its movement across the Pacific Ocean to the United States, where much of it fell as rain or snow. In early January 2017, the Western U.S. experienced rain and flooding from a series of storms flowing to America on multiple streams of moist air, each individually known as an atmospheric river. Atmospheric rivers are typically 250 to 375 miles (400 to 600 kilometers) wide. The term "Pineapple Express" refers to atmospheric rivers that originate near or just east of the Hawaiian Islands and terminate along the West Coast of North America. Other atmospheric rivers originate in the tropical Western Pacific Ocean and take on a more west-to-east orientation near the U.S. West Coast. Several distinct plumes of moisture are apparent in the AIRS imagery. The first of three atmospheric river events occurred on January 7 and 8. This was a classic Pineapple Express, featuring an uninterrupted supply of heavy moisture drawn up from the deep tropics. This was the wettest storm of the series, producing very heavy rainfall, more than 1 foot (0.3 meter), in parts of Central and Northern California, with relatively smaller amounts of snow at the highest elevations of the Sierra Nevada. The second blob of heavy moisture, from January 8 to 10 to the west of California, likely originated thousands of miles to the west, in the tropical Western Pacific. This atmospheric river did not maintain its tropical connection. However, it still produced prodigious rainfall totals in Northern California and much more snow than the first event, since the storm had a more northern and colder trajectory. A third storm, the coldest of the three events, moved through California on January 11 and 12, producing significant rainfall, as well as snow at higher elevations. The movie ends with another atmospheric river attempting to form on January 11 and 12 to the west of Hawaii, transporting moisture into the storm track. Movies are availalbe at http://photojournal.jpl.nasa.gov/catalog/PIA21209

Significant influences of global mean temperature and ENSO on extreme rainfall over Southeast Asia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Villafuerte, Marcelino, II; Matsumoto, Jun

2014-05-01

Along with the increasing concerns on the consequences of global warming, and the accumulating records of disaster related to heavy rainfall events in Southeast Asia, this study investigates whether a direct link can be detected between the rising global mean temperature, as well as the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), and extreme rainfall over the region. The maximum likelihood modeling that allows incorporating covariates on the location parameter of the generalized extreme value (GEV) distribution is employed. The GEV model is fitted to annual and seasonal rainfall extremes, which were taken from a high-resolution gauge-based gridded daily precipitation data covering a span of 57 years (1951-2007). Nonstationarities in extreme rainfall are detected over the central parts of Indochina Peninsula, eastern coasts of central Vietnam, northwest of the Sumatra Island, inland portions of Borneo Island, and on the northeastern and southwestern coasts of the Philippines. These nonstationarities in extreme rainfall are directly linked to near-surface global mean temperature and ENSO. In particular, the study reveals that a kelvin increase in global mean temperature anomaly can lead to an increase of 30% to even greater than 45% in annual maximum 1-day rainfall, which were observed pronouncedly over central Vietnam, southern coast of Myanmar, northwestern sections of Thailand, northwestern tip of Sumatra, central portions of Malaysia, and the Visayas island in central Philippines. Furthermore, a pronounced ENSO influence manifested on the seasonal maximum 1-day rainfall; a northward progression of 10%-15% drier condition over Southeast Asia as the El Niño develops from summer to winter is revealed. It is important therefore, to consider the results obtained here for water resources management as well as for adaptation planning to minimize the potential adverse impact of global warming, particularly on extreme rainfall and its associated flood risk over the region. Acknowledgment: This study is supported by the Tokyo Metropolitan Government through its AHRF program.

Use of Climatological Data in Weather Insurance.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Changnon, Stanley A.; Changnon, Joyce M.

1990-05-01

There are three major types of crop-related weather insurance: hail, all perlis, and rain insurance. The development of rates is an exercise in applied climatology, and the importance of the historical data selected for assessing risk (and developing rates) is revealed by the problems encountered by firms insuring against deficient summer rainfall during the drought of 1988. Extensive purchase of premiums costing $9 million for coverage ($400 million) in the Midwest occurred with buyers (farmers) apparently aware during May and June 1988 that an unusually dry event was in progress. The levels of loss (50% or less of average June-August rainfall) offered by insurance firms were exceeded throughout the Midwest. The firms attempted to refund the record number of premiums accepted in June, and in turn, 8000 farmers filed a class-action suit against the firms for failure to accept premiums and to provide coverage. The insurance firms ultimately settled by agreeing to pay $48 million in claims. The coverage offered was based on the most recent 25 years of data, and this unusually wet period did not represent the longer-term likelihood of areally extensive dry summers. Uses of climatic data by the insurance industry include planning for the occurrence of such extreme event considerations, plus point vs area probabilities of these anomalous events; choosing the periods to select for routinely establishing new rates (rerating is typically done an 2- to 10-year cycles); and for determining the averages most appropriate to use for rate levels and sales considerations.

Increasing risk of Amazonian drought due to decreasing aerosol pollution.

PubMed

Cox, Peter M; Harris, Phil P; Huntingford, Chris; Betts, Richard A; Collins, Matthew; Jones, Chris D; Jupp, Tim E; Marengo, José A; Nobre, Carlos A

2008-05-08

The Amazon rainforest plays a crucial role in the climate system, helping to drive atmospheric circulations in the tropics by absorbing energy and recycling about half of the rainfall that falls on it. This region (Amazonia) is also estimated to contain about one-tenth of the total carbon stored in land ecosystems, and to account for one-tenth of global, net primary productivity. The resilience of the forest to the combined pressures of deforestation and global warming is therefore of great concern, especially as some general circulation models (GCMs) predict a severe drying of Amazonia in the twenty-first century. Here we analyse these climate projections with reference to the 2005 drought in western Amazonia, which was associated with unusually warm North Atlantic sea surface temperatures (SSTs). We show that reduction of dry-season (July-October) rainfall in western Amazonia correlates well with an index of the north-south SST gradient across the equatorial Atlantic (the 'Atlantic N-S gradient'). Our climate model is unusual among current GCMs in that it is able to reproduce this relationship and also the observed twentieth-century multidecadal variability in the Atlantic N-S gradient, provided that the effects of aerosols are included in the model. Simulations for the twenty-first century using the same model show a strong tendency for the SST conditions associated with the 2005 drought to become much more common, owing to continuing reductions in reflective aerosol pollution in the Northern Hemisphere.

A probabilistic approach of the Flash Flood Early Warning System (FF-EWS) in Catalonia based on radar ensemble generation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Velasco, David; Sempere-Torres, Daniel; Corral, Carles; Llort, Xavier; Velasco, Enrique

2010-05-01

Early Warning Systems (EWS) are commonly identified as the most efficient tools in order to improve the preparedness and risk management against heavy rains and Flash Floods (FF) with the objective of reducing economical losses and human casualties. In particular, flash floods affecting torrential Mediterranean catchments are a key element to be incorporated within operational EWSs. The characteristic high spatial and temporal variability of the storms requires high-resolution data and methods to monitor/forecast the evolution of rainfall and its hydrological impact in small and medium torrential basins. A first version of an operational FF-EWS has been implemented in Catalonia (NE Spain) under the name of EHIMI system (Integrated Tool for Hydrometeorological Forecasting) with the support of the Catalan Water Agency (ACA) and the Meteorological Service of Catalonia (SMC). Flash flood warnings are issued based on radar-rainfall estimates. Rainfall estimation is performed on radar observations with high spatial and temporal resolution (1km2 and 10 minutes) in order to adapt the warning scale to the 1-km grid of the EWS. The method is based on comparing observed accumulated rainfall against rainfall thresholds provided by the regional Intensity-Duration-Frequency (IDF) curves. The so-called "aggregated rainfall warning" at every river cell is obtained as the spatially averaged rainfall over its associated upstream draining area. Regarding the time aggregation of rainfall, the critical duration is thought to be an accumulation period similar to the concentration time of each cachtment. The warning is issued once the forecasted rainfall accumulation exceeds the rainfall thresholds mentioned above, which are associated to certain probability of occurrence. Finally, the hazard warning is provided and shown to the decision-maker in terms of exceeded return periods at every river cell covering the whole area of Catalonia. The objective of the present work includes the probabilistic component to the FF-EWS. As a first step, we have incorporated the uncertainty in rainfall estimates and forecasts based on an ensemble of equiprobable rainfall scenarios. The presented study has focused on a number of rainfall events and the performance of the FF-EWS evaluated in terms of its ability to produce probabilistic hazard warnings for decision-making support.

Characteristics of pulsed runoff-erosion events under typical rainstorms in a small watershed on the Loess Plateau of China.

PubMed

Wu, Lei; Jiang, Jun; Li, Gou-Xia; Ma, Xiao-Yi

2018-02-27

The pulsed events of rainstorm erosion on the Loess Plateau are well-known, but little information is available concerning the characteristics of superficial soil erosion processes caused by heavy rainstorms at the watershed scale. This study statistically evaluated characteristics of pulsed runoff-erosion events based on 17 observed rainstorms from 1997-2010 in a small loess watershed on the Loess Plateau of China. Results show that: 1) Rainfall is the fundamental driving force of soil erosion on hillslopes, but the correlations of rainfall-runoff and rainfall-sediment in different rainstorms are often scattered due to infiltration-excess runoff and soil conservation measures. 2) Relationships between runoff and sediment for each rainstorm event can be regressed by linear, power, logarithmic and exponential functions. Cluster Analysis is helpful in classifying runoff-erosion events and formulating soil conservation strategies for rainstorm erosion. 3) Response characteristics of sediment yield are different in different levels of pulsed runoff-erosion events. Affected by rainfall intensity and duration, large changes may occur in the interactions between flow and sediment for different flood events. Results provide new insights into runoff-erosion processes and will assist soil conservation planning in the loess hilly region.

The Chennai extreme rainfall event in 2015: The Bay of Bengal connection

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Boyaj, Alugula; Ashok, Karumuri; Ghosh, Subimal; Devanand, Anjana; Dandu, Govardhan

2018-04-01

Southeast India experienced a heavy rainfall during 30 Nov-2 Dec 2015. Particularly, the Chennai city, the fourth major metropolitan city in India with a population of 5 million, experienced extreme flooding and causalities. Using various observed/reanalysed datasets, we find that the concurrent southern Bay of Bengal (BoB) sea surface temperatures (SST) were anomalously warm. Our analysis shows that BoB sea surface temperature anomalies (SSTA) are indeed positively, and significantly, correlated with the northeastern Indian monsoonal rainfall during this season. Our sensitivity experiments carried out with the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model at 25 km resolution suggest that, while the strong concurrent El Niño conditions contributed to about 21.5% of the intensity of the extreme Chennai rainfall through its signals in the local SST mentioned above, the warming trend in BoB SST also contributed equally to the extremity of the event. Further, the El Niño southern oscillation (ENSO) impacts on the intensity of the synoptic events in the BoB during the northeast monsoon are manifested largely through the local SST in the BoB as compared through its signature in the atmospheric circulations over the BoB.

Numerical modelling of hydrologically-driven slope instability by means of porous media mechanics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kakogiannou, Evanthia; Sanavia, Lorenzo; Lora, Marco; Schrefler, Bernhard

2015-04-01

Heavy rainfall can trigger slope failure which generally involves shallow soil deposit of different grading and origin usually in a state of partial saturation. In this case of slope instability, the behaviour of the soil slope is closely related not only to the distribution of pore-water pressure but also to the stress state during rainfall infiltration involving both mechanical and hydrological processes. In order to understand better these physical key processes, in this research work, the modelling of rainfall induced slope failure is considered as a coupled variably saturated hydro-mechanical problem. Therefore, the geometrically linear finite element code Comes-Geo for non-isothermal elasto-plastic multiphase solid porous materials is used, as developed by B.A. Schrefler and his co-workers. In this context, a detailed numerical analysis of an experimental slope stability test due to rainfall infiltration is presented. The main goals of this work are to understand the triggering mechanisms during the progressive failure, the effect of using different constitutive models of the mechanical soil behavior on the numerical results and the use of the second order work criterion on the detection of slope instability.

Hurricane Katrina: Influence on the Male-to-Female Birth Ratio.

PubMed

Grech, Victor; Scherb, Hagen

2015-01-01

This study was carried out in order to ascertain whether or not Hurricane Katrina and related factors (i.e. the amount of rainfall) influenced the male-to-female birth ratio (M/F). Monthly births by gender for the affected states (Alabama, Florida, Louisiana and Mississippi) for January 2003 to December 2012 were obtained from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC Wonder, Atlanta, Ga., USA). Precipitation data was obtained from the US National Weather Service. Ordinary linear logistic regression was used for trend analysis. A p value ≤0.05 was taken to represent a statistically significant result. Of the total of 3,903,660 live births, 1,996,966 (51.16%) were male and 1,906,694 (48.84%) were female. Significant seasonal variation was noted (the maximum M/F in May was 1.055, the minimum M/F in September was 1.041, p = 0.0073). There was also a separate and significant rise in M/F 8-10 months after the storm (April to June 2006, peak M/F 1.078, p = 0.0074), which translated to an approximate deficit of 800 girls compared to 46,072 girls born in that period if the M/F increase was theoretically only due to a girls' deficit in the denominator of the ratio. This spike was only present in Alabama, Louisiana and Mississippi, all of which received heavy rainfall. Florida did not receive heavy rainfall and experienced no such M/F spike. In this study there was a dose-response relation between the amount of rainfall after Hurricane Katrina and the monthly sex ratio of live births in the US states of Alabama, Louisiana and Mississippi 8-10 months later. The well-known yet unexplained distinct sex ratio seasonality may be due to natural or man-made radiation contained in the rain. © 2015 S. Karger AG, Basel.

Every-10-minute Refresh of Precipitation and Flood Risk Predictions by Assimilating Himawari-8 All-sky Satellite Radiances

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Honda, T.; Kotsuki, S.; Lien, G. Y.; Maejima, Y.; Okamoto, K.; Miyoshi, T.

2017-12-01

To capture the flood risk, it is essential to obtain accurate precipitation forecasts in terms of intensity, location, and timing. In this regard, data assimilation plays an important role to provide better initial conditions for precipitation forecasts. In particular, geostationary satellites are among the most important data sources because of their broad coverage and high observing frequency. Recently, third-generation geostationary satellites, Himawari-8/9 of the Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) and GOES-16 of the National Oceanic and Atmosphere Administration (NOAA), were launched, and among them, Himawari-8 was the first and has been fully operated since July 2015. Himawari-8 is capable of every-10-minute full disk observation similarly to GOES-16 and allows to refresh precipitation and flood predictions as frequently as every 10 minutes. This has a potential advantage in capturing the flood risk associated with a sudden torrential rainfall much earlier. This study aims to demonstrate the advantage of frequent updates of precipitation and flood risk predictions by assimilating all-sky Himawari-8 infrared (IR) radiances. We use an advanced regional data assimilation system known as the SCALE-LETKF, composed of a regional numerical weather prediction (NWP) model (SCALE-RM) developed in RIKEN, Japan and the Local Ensemble Transform Kalman Filter (LETKF). We focus on a major disaster case in Japan known as September 2015 Kanto-Tohoku heavy rainfall in which a meridional precipitation band associated with a tropical cyclone induced a record-breaking rainfall and eventually caused a collapse of a Kinu River levee. By assimilating a moisture sensitive IR band (band 9, 6.9 µm) of Himawari-8 every 10 minutes into a 6-km mesh SCALE-LETKF, the heavy precipitation forecasts are greatly improved. We run a rainfall-runoff model using the improved precipitation forecasts and obtain high risk of floods predicted with longer lead times.

Analysis of mesoscale convective systems in Catalonia using meteorological radar for the period 1996 2000

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rigo, Tomeu; Llasat, Maria-Carmen

2007-02-01

The aim of this paper is to show a climatology of Mesoscale Convective Systems (MCS) in the NE of the Iberian Peninsula, on the basis of meteorological radar observations. Special attention was paid to those cases that have produced heavy rainfalls during the period 1996-2000. Identification of the MCS was undertaken using two procedures. Firstly, the precipitation structures at the lowest level were recognised by means of a 2D algorithm that distinguishes between convective and non-convective contribution. Secondly, the convective cells were identified using a 3D procedure quite similar to the SCIT (Storm Cell Identification and Tracking) algorithm that looks for the reflectivity cores in each radar volume. Finally, the convective cells (3D) were associated with the 2D structures (convective rainfall areas), in order to characterize the complete MCS. Once this methodology was presented the paper offers a proposal for classifying the precipitation systems, and particularly the MCS. 57 MCS structures were classified: 49% of them were identified as linearly well-organised systems, called TS (39%), LS (18%) and NS (43%). In addition to the classification, the following items were analysed for each MCS found: duration, season, time of day, area affected and direction of movement, and main radar parameters related with convection. The average features of those MCS show an area of about 25000 km 2, Zmax values of 47 dBz, an echotop of 12 km, the maximum frequency at 12 UTC and early afternoon and a displacement towards E-NE. The study was completed by analysing the field at surface, the presence of a mesoscale low near the system and the quasi-stationary features of three cases related with heavy rainfalls. Maximum rainfall (more then 200 mm in 6 h) was related with the presence of a cyclone in combination with the production of a convective train effect.

Fusing Multiple Satellite Datasets Toward Defining and Understanding Organized Convection

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Elsaesser, G.; Del Genio, A. D.

2017-12-01

How do we differentiate unorganized from organized convection? We might think of organized convection as being long lasting (at least longer than the lifetime of any individual cumulus cell), clustered at larger spatial scales (>100 km), and responsible for substantial rainfall accumulation. Organized convection is sustained on such scales due to the arrangement of moist/dry and buoyant/non-buoyant mesoscale circulations. The nature of these circulations is tied to system diabatic heating profiles; in particular, the 2nd baroclinic (top-heavy), stratiform heating mode is thought to be important for organized convection maintenance/propagation. We investigate the extent to which these characteristics are jointly found in propagating convective systems. Lifecycle information comes from hi-res IR data. Diabatic heating profiles, convective fractions and rainfall are provided by GPM retrievals mapped to convective system tracks. Moisture is provided by AIRS/AMSU and passive microwave retrievals. Instead of compositing heating profile information along a system track, where information is smoothed out, we sort system heating profile structures according to their "top heaviness" and then analyze PDFs of system rainfall, system sizes, durations, convective/stratiform ratios, etc. as a function of diabatic heating structure. Perhaps contrary to expectation, we find only small differences in PDFs of rainfall rates, system sizes, and system duration for different heating profile structures. If organization is defined according to heating structures, then one possible interpretation of these results is that organization is independent of system size, duration, and many times, even lifecycle stage. Is it possible that most systems "hobble" along and exhibit varying degrees of organization, dependent on local environment moisture/buoyancy variations, unlike the archetypical MCS paradigm? This presentation will also discuss the questions posed above within the context of parameterizing organized convection in the GISS GCM. GCMs must make/sustain the right heating profile at the right time, which requires observations-based understanding of such distinctions. Such knowledge is important for simulating and understanding the deep convective contribution to cloud feedback in a changing climate.

Reduced salinity increases susceptibility of zooxanthellate jellyfish to herbicide toxicity during a simulated rainfall event.

PubMed

Klein, Shannon G; Pitt, Kylie A; Carroll, Anthony R

2016-02-01

Accurately predicting how marine biota are likely to respond to changing ocean conditions requires accurate simulation of interacting stressors, exposure regimes and recovery periods. Jellyfish populations have increased in some parts of the world and, despite few direct empirical tests, are hypothesised to be increasing because they are robust to a range of environmental stressors. Here, we investigated the effects of contaminated runoff on a zooxanthellate jellyfish by exposing juvenile Cassiopea sp. medusae to a photosystem II (PSII) herbicide, atrazine and reduced salinity conditions that occur following rainfall. Four levels of atrazine (0ngL(-1), 10ngL(-1), 2μgL(-1), 20μgL(-1)) and three levels of salinity (35 ppt, 25 ppt, 17 ppt) were varied, mimicking the timeline of light, moderate and heavy rainfall events. Normal conditions were then slowly re-established over four days to mimic the recovery of the ecosystem post-rain and the experiment continued for a further 7 days to observe potential recovery of the medusae. Pulse-amplitude modulated (PAM) chlorophyll fluorescence, growth and bell contraction rates of medusae were measured. Medusae exposed to the combination of high atrazine and lowest salinity died. After 3 days of exposure, bell contraction rates were reduced by 88% and medusae were 16% smaller in the lowest salinity treatments. By Day 5 of the experiment, all medusae that survived the initial pulse event began to recover quickly. Although atrazine decreased YII under normal salinity conditions, YII was further reduced when medusae were exposed to both low salinity and atrazine simultaneously. Atrazine breakdown products were more concentrated in jellyfish tissues than atrazine at the end of the experiment, suggesting that although bioaccumulation occurred, atrazine was metabolised. Our results suggest that reduced salinity may increase the susceptibility of medusae to herbicide exposure during heavy rainfall events. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Effects of storm runoff on the thermal regime and water quality of a deep, stratified reservoir in a temperate monsoon zone, in Northwest China.

PubMed

Huang, Tinglin; Li, Xuan; Rijnaarts, Huub; Grotenhuis, Tim; Ma, Weixing; Sun, Xin; Xu, Jinlan

2014-07-01

Jinpen Reservoir is a deep, stratified reservoir in Shaanxi province, located in a warm temperate zone of Northwest China. Influenced by a temperate monsoon climate, more than 60% of the annual precipitation is concentrated from late summer to autumn (July-September). In recent years, extreme rainfall events occurred more frequently and strongly affected the thermal structure, mixing layer depth and evolution of stratification of Jinpen Reservoir. The reservoir's inflow volume increased sharply after heavy rainfall during the flooding season. Large volumes of inflow induced mixing of stratified water zones in early autumn and disturbed the stratification significantly. A temporary positive effect of such disturbance was the oxygenation of the water close to the bottom of the reservoir, leading to inhibition of the release of nutrients from sediments, especially phosphate. However, the massive inflow induced by storm runoff with increased oxygen-consuming substances led to an increase of the oxygen consumption rate. After the bottom water became anaerobic again, the bottom water quality would deteriorate due to the release of pollutants from sediments. Heavy rainfall events could lead to very high nutrient input into the reservoir due to massive erosion from the surrounding uninhabited steep mountains, and the particulate matter contributed to most nutrient inputs. Reasonably releasing density flow is an effective way to reduce the amounts of particulate associated pollutants entering the reservoir. Significant turbid density flow always followed high rainfall events in Jinpen Reservoir, which not only affected the reservoir water quality but also increased costs of the drinking water treatment plant. Understanding the effects of the storm runoff on the vertical distributions of water quality indicators could help water managers to select the proper position of the intake for the water plant in order to avoid high turbidity outflow. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Hurricane Katrina: Influence on the Male-to-Female Birth Ratio

PubMed Central

Grech, Victor; Scherb, Hagen

2015-01-01

Objective This study was carried out in order to ascertain whether or not Hurricane Katrina and related factors (i.e. the amount of rainfall) influenced the male-to-female birth ratio (M/F). Materials and Methods Monthly births by gender for the affected states (Alabama, Florida, Louisiana and Mississippi) for January 2003 to December 2012 were obtained from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC Wonder, Atlanta, Ga., USA). Precipitation data was obtained from the US National Weather Service. Ordinary linear logistic regression was used for trend analysis. A p value ≤0.05 was taken to represent a statistically significant result. Results Of the total of 3,903,660 live births, 1,996,966 (51.16%) were male and 1,906,694 (48.84%) were female. Significant seasonal variation was noted (the maximum M/F in May was 1.055, the minimum M/F in September was 1.041, p = 0.0073). There was also a separate and significant rise in M/F 8–10 months after the storm (April to June 2006, peak M/F 1.078, p = 0.0074), which translated to an approximate deficit of 800 girls compared to 46,072 girls born in that period if the M/F increase was theoretically only due to a girls' deficit in the denominator of the ratio. This spike was only present in Alabama, Louisiana and Mississippi, all of which received heavy rainfall. Florida did not receive heavy rainfall and experienced no such M/F spike. Conclusion In this study there was a dose-response relation between the amount of rainfall after Hurricane Katrina and the monthly sex ratio of live births in the US states of Alabama, Louisiana and Mississippi 8–10 months later. The well-known yet unexplained distinct sex ratio seasonality may be due to natural or man-made radiation contained in the rain. PMID:26139554

The Child's Tantrum: El Nino. The Origin of the El Nino-Southern Oscillation

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Picault, Joel; Hackert, Eric; Busalacchi, Antonio; Murtugudde, Ragu; Lagerloef, Gary

2000-01-01

In 1997, a child's tantrums caught the world's attention. These tantrums took the form not of crying and foot stamping, but of droughts and floods. Obviously, this was no ordinary child. It was, in fact, The Child, or El Nino, as it was, named in the late 1800s by South American observers, who noted that its timing coincided with the Christmas holiday. El Nino is a reversal in sea surface temperature (SST) distributions that occurs once every few years in the tropical Pacific. When it coincides with a cyclical shift in air pressure, known as the Southern Oscillation, normal weather patterns are drastically altered. The combined phenomenon is known as El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO). Although ENSO is a regular phenomenon, it was unusually strong in 1997. It produced heavy rainfall and floods in California and bestowed spring-like temperatures on the Midwest during the winter. These drastic changes in normal weather patterns captured the public imagination, from news reports to jokes on late-night talk shows. Naturally, people wanted to. know as much, about El Nino as possible. Fortunately, scientists had at their disposal new satellites and ocean sensors that provided an unprecedented level of information. Consequently, not only was the 1997 ENSO the strongest in recent memory, but it was also the most thoroughly studied. Prominent groups such as the NASA Seasonalto-Interannual Prediction Project (NSIPP) combined numerous aspects of climate modeling into a single, predictive endeavor.

Determination of inorganic particulates: (cationic, anionic and heavy metals) in the atmosphere of some areas in Bahrain during the Gulf crisis in 1991

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ali-Mohamed, Ahmed Y.; Matter, Haifa A.

Inorganic particulate matter was sampled weekly during the period March-May, 1991 at different sites at height of ˜6-9 m above the ground level. Deposited aerosols were chemically analyzed and a comparison was made between these sites. The percentage of tarry matter deposited on the airborne particulate matter was found to be 40% during the Gulf crisis compared to 5% prior to Gulf war (1985/86). Heavy metal analysis are also reported. The results were influenced differently by some atmospheric parameters such as temperature, humidity, rainfall, pressure and wind speed/direction.

[Heavy metals pollution and analysis of seasonal variation runoff in Xi'an].

PubMed

Yuan, Hong-Lin; Li, Xing-Yu; Wang, Xiao-Chang

2014-11-01

In order to explore heavy metals pollution situation,changes in characteristics, the correlation between each heavy mental and pollution source analysis of Xi'an various regions in different season in one year. This study collected several samples of Xi'an rainfall typical urban trunk roads throughout the year in 2013 and used inductively coupled plasma mass spectrometry (ICP-MS) to determine the level of Fe, Mn, Pb, Zn, Al, Cd of the samples, then, analyzed the seasonal change of heavy mental. Studies have shown that: the heavy metal of Xi'an road runoff pollutes seriously, the concentration of Fe over three times of the national standard and maintain the higher levels throughout the year, meanwhile the concentration with the intensity of human activities increases. The concentration of Mn and Zn in one year show a trends: winter > autumn > summer> spring. Pb concentration increases with the increase in traffic volume, while showing: winter > spring > summer > autumn. Factor analysis shows: Fe and Al was affected by the same sources-natural sources; Zn, Cd affected by anthropogenic sources of large; Mn, Pb affected by the larger traffic sources.

Superconducting symmetries and magnetic responses of uranium heavy-fermion systems UBe13 and UPd2Al3

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shimizu, Yusei; Kittaka, Shunichiro; Sakakibara, Toshiro; Aoki, Dai

2018-05-01

Low-temperature thermodynamic investigation for UBe13 and UPd2Al3 were performed in order to gain insight into their unusual ground states of 5 f electrons. Our heat-capacity data for the cubic UBe13 strongly suggest that nodal quasiparticles are absent and its superconducting (SC) gap is fully open over the Fermi surface. Moreover, two unusual thermodynamic anomalies are also observed in UBe13 at ∼ 3 T and ∼ 9 T; the lower-field anomaly is seen only in the SC mixed state by dc magnetization M (H) as well as heat-capacity C (H) , while the higher-field anomaly appears for C (H) in the normal phase above the upper critical field. On the other hand, field-orientation dependence of the heat capacity in the hexagonal UPd2Al3 shows a significantly anisotropic behavior of C (H) ∝H 1 / 2 , reflecting the nodal gap structure of this system. Our result strongly suggests the presence of a horizontal line node on the Fermi surface with heavy effective mass in UPd2Al3.

Return to normal streamflows and water levels: summary of hydrologic conditions in Georgia, 2013

USGS Publications Warehouse

Knaak, Andrew E.; Caslow, Kerry; Peck, Michael F.

2015-01-01

Drought conditions, persistent in the area since 2010, continued into the 2013 WY. In February 2013, Georgia was free of extreme (D3) drought conditions, as defined by the U.S. Drought Monitor, for the first time since August 2010 due to extended periods of heavy rainfall (U.S. Drought Monitor, 2013). According to the Office of the State Climatologist, the city of Savannah recorded 9.75 inches of rain in February 2013, the highest monthly total in February out of 143 years of record. Macon and Columbus also received record rainfalls in February 2013. Above-normal precipitation continued in June 2013, and the cities of Augusta and Savannah recorded the wettest June on record. In July, precipitation for the entire State of Georgia was 3.53 inches above normal (Dunkley, 2013). Above-normal rainfall from February to September 2013 increased streamflow and raised groundwater levels, and lakes and reservoirs were raised to full-pool elevations.

Climate change and wildfire around southern Africa

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kimura, K.

2013-12-01

When the climate change in southern Africa is analyzed, the effects of rainfall by Inter Tropical Convergence Zone(ITCZ) and cyclone are important. In this study, the rainfall patterns are analyzed with synoptic analysis. The southern limit of ITCZ is around the arid zone around Namibia, Botswana, Zimbabwe and Mozambique. This zone has some effects of both ITCZ and extratropical cyclones by season. As well as this, the eastern part of this area has heavy rainfall by the cyclone from the Indian Ocean once in several years. In the other hand, a lot of wildfire occurs in this area. The main cause of the wildfire is anthropogenic misbehavior of the fire by the slash-and-burn agriculture. Recently we can find the wildfire detected with the satellite imagery like Terra/Aqua MODIS. We can compare the weather environment and the wildfire occurrence with Geographical Information System. We have tried making the fire weather index suitable for the southern African semi-arid area.

An Examination of Selected Historical Rainfall-Induced Debris-Flow Events within the Central and Southern Appalachian Mountains of the Eastern United States

USGS Publications Warehouse

Wieczorek, Gerald F.; Eaton, L. Scott; Morgan, Benjamin A.; Wooten, R.M.; Morrissey, M.

2009-01-01

Generally, every several years, heavy amounts of rainfall trigger a large number of debris flows within the central and southern Appalachian Mountains of the Eastern United States. These types of landslides damage buildings, disrupt infrastructure, and occasionally injure and kill people. One of the first large debris flows was described in Pennsylvania in August 1779. The most destructive event occurred during August 19-20, 1969, in Nelson County, Va. During a period of 8 hours, 710 to 800 milimeters of rain triggered more than 3,000 landslides, killing more than 150 people. As the population increases in this region, future storms will likely increase the risks of property damage and loss of life. We provide a general overview of debris flows in the Appalachians, using a compilation of 19 storm events for which rainfall, duration of the storm, and descriptions of the resulting landslides have been substantially documented.

Floods in Central Texas, September 7-14, 2010

USGS Publications Warehouse

Winters, Karl E.

2012-01-01

Severe flooding occurred near the Austin metropolitan area in central Texas September 7–14, 2010, because of heavy rainfall associated with Tropical Storm Hermine. The U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the Upper Brushy Creek Water Control and Improvement District, determined rainfall amounts and annual exceedance probabilities for rainfall resulting in flooding in Bell, Williamson, and Travis counties in central Texas during September 2010. We documented peak streamflows and the annual exceedance probabilities for peak streamflows recorded at several streamflow-gaging stations in the study area. The 24-hour rainfall total exceeded 12 inches at some locations, with one report of 14.57 inches at Lake Georgetown. Rainfall probabilities were estimated using previously published depth-duration frequency maps for Texas. At 4 sites in Williamson County, the 24-hour rainfall had an annual exceedance probability of 0.002. Streamflow measurement data and flood-peak data from U.S. Geological Survey surface-water monitoring stations (streamflow and reservoir gaging stations) are presented, along with a comparison of September 2010 flood peaks to previous known maximums in the periods of record. Annual exceedance probabilities for peak streamflow were computed for 20 streamflow-gaging stations based on an analysis of streamflow-gaging station records. The annual exceedance probability was 0.03 for the September 2010 peak streamflow at the Geological Survey's streamflow-gaging stations 08104700 North Fork San Gabriel River near Georgetown, Texas, and 08154700 Bull Creek at Loop 360 near Austin, Texas. The annual exceedance probability was 0.02 for the peak streamflow for Geological Survey's streamflow-gaging station 08104500 Little River near Little River, Texas. The lack of similarity in the annual exceedance probabilities computed for precipitation and streamflow might be attributed to the small areal extent of the heaviest rainfall over these and the other gaged watersheds.

Anatomy of extraordinary rainfall and flash flood in a Dutch lowland catchment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Brauer, C. C.; Teuling, A. J.; Overeem, A.; van der Velde, Y.; Hazenberg, P.; Warmerdam, P. M. M.; Uijlenhoet, R.

2011-06-01

On 26 August 2010 the eastern part of The Netherlands and the bordering part of Germany were struck by a series of rainfall events lasting for more than a day. Over an area of 740 km2 more than 120 mm of rainfall were observed in 24 h. This extreme event resulted in local flooding of city centres, highways and agricultural fields, and considerable financial loss. In this paper we report on the unprecedented flash flood triggered by this exceptionally heavy rainfall event in the 6.5 km2 Hupsel Brook catchment, which has been the experimental watershed employed by Wageningen University since the 1960s. This study aims to improve our understanding of the dynamics of such lowland flash floods. We present a detailed hydrometeorological analysis of this extreme event, focusing on its synoptic meteorological characteristics, its space-time rainfall dynamics as observed with rain gauges, weather radar and a microwave link, as well as the measured soil moisture, groundwater and discharge response of the catchment. At the Hupsel Brook catchment 160 mm of rainfall was observed in 24 h, corresponding to an estimated return period of well over 1000 years. As a result, discharge at the catchment outlet increased from 4.4 × 10-3 to nearly 5 m3 s-1. Within 7 h discharge rose from 5 × 10-2 to 4.5 m3 s-1. The catchment response can be divided into four phases: (1) soil moisture reservoir filling, (2) groundwater response, (3) surface depression filling and surface runoff and (4) backwater feedback. The first 35 mm of rainfall were stored in the soil without a significant increase in discharge. Relatively dry initial conditions (in comparison to those for past discharge extremes) prevented an even faster and more extreme hydrological response.

An analysis of on time evolution of landslide

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tsai, Chienwei; Lien, Huipang

2017-04-01

In recent years, the extreme hydrological phenomenon in Taiwan is obvious. Because the increase of heavy rainfall frequency has resulted in severe landslide disaster, the watershed management is very important and how to make the most effective governance within the limited funds is the key point. In recent years many scholars to develop empirical models said that virtually rainfall factors exist and as long as rainfall conditions are met the minimum requirements of the model, landslide will occur. However, rainfall is one of the elements to the landslide, but not the only one element. Rainfall, geology and earthquake all contributed to the landslide as well. Preliminary research found that many landslides occur at the same location constantly and after repeating landslide, the slope had the characteristic of landslide immunity over time, even if the rainfall exceeded the standard, the landslide could not be triggered in the near term. This study investigated the surface conditions of slope that occur repeated landslide. It is difficult to be the basis of subsequent anti-disaster if making rainfall is the only condition to contribute to the landslide. This study analyzes 50 landslides in 2004 2013. Repeated landslide is defined as existed landslide in satellite images of reference period which it's bare area is shrinking or disappearing gradually but the restoration occur landslide again in some period time. The statistical analysis of the study found that 96% of landslide has repeated landslide and on average repeated landslide occurs 3.4 years in 10 years by one year as the unit. The highest of repeated landslide happened in 2010. It would presume that Typhoon Morakot in 2010 brought torrential rain which suffered southern mountain areas severely so the areas occurred repeated landslide.

Precipitation Regime Shift Enhanced the Rain Pulse Effect on Soil Respiration in a Semi-Arid Steppe

PubMed Central

Yan, Liming; Chen, Shiping; Xia, Jianyang; Luo, Yiqi

2014-01-01

The effect of resource pulses, such as rainfall events, on soil respiration plays an important role in controlling grassland carbon balance, but how shifts in long-term precipitation regime regulate rain pulse effect on soil respiration is still unclear. We first quantified the influence of rainfall event on soil respiration based on a two-year (2006 and 2009) continuously measured soil respiration data set in a temperate steppe in northern China. In 2006 and 2009, soil carbon release induced by rainfall events contributed about 44.5% (83.3 g C m−2) and 39.6% (61.7 g C m−2) to the growing-season total soil respiration, respectively. The pulse effect of rainfall event on soil respiration can be accurately predicted by a water status index (WSI), which is the product of rainfall event size and the ratio between antecedent soil temperature to moisture at the depth of 10 cm (r 2 = 0.92, P<0.001) through the growing season. It indicates the pulse effect can be enhanced by not only larger individual rainfall event, but also higher soil temperature/moisture ratio which is usually associated with longer dry spells. We then analyzed a long-term (1953–2009) precipitation record in the experimental area. We found both the extreme heavy rainfall events (>40 mm per event) and the long dry-spells (>5 days) during the growing seasons increased from 1953–2009. It suggests the shift in precipitation regime has increased the contribution of rain pulse effect to growing-season total soil respiration in this region. These findings highlight the importance of incorporating precipitation regime shift and its impacts on the rain pulse effect into the future predictions of grassland carbon cycle under climate change. PMID:25093573

Precipitation regime shift enhanced the rain pulse effect on soil respiration in a semi-arid steppe.

PubMed

Yan, Liming; Chen, Shiping; Xia, Jianyang; Luo, Yiqi

2014-01-01

The effect of resource pulses, such as rainfall events, on soil respiration plays an important role in controlling grassland carbon balance, but how shifts in long-term precipitation regime regulate rain pulse effect on soil respiration is still unclear. We first quantified the influence of rainfall event on soil respiration based on a two-year (2006 and 2009) continuously measured soil respiration data set in a temperate steppe in northern China. In 2006 and 2009, soil carbon release induced by rainfall events contributed about 44.5% (83.3 g C m(-2)) and 39.6% (61.7 g C m(-2)) to the growing-season total soil respiration, respectively. The pulse effect of rainfall event on soil respiration can be accurately predicted by a water status index (WSI), which is the product of rainfall event size and the ratio between antecedent soil temperature to moisture at the depth of 10 cm (r2 = 0.92, P<0.001) through the growing season. It indicates the pulse effect can be enhanced by not only larger individual rainfall event, but also higher soil temperature/moisture ratio which is usually associated with longer dry spells. We then analyzed a long-term (1953-2009) precipitation record in the experimental area. We found both the extreme heavy rainfall events (>40 mm per event) and the long dry-spells (>5 days) during the growing seasons increased from 1953-2009. It suggests the shift in precipitation regime has increased the contribution of rain pulse effect to growing-season total soil respiration in this region. These findings highlight the importance of incorporating precipitation regime shift and its impacts on the rain pulse effect into the future predictions of grassland carbon cycle under climate change.

Risk Analysis of Extreme Rainfall Effects on the Shihmen Reservoir

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ho, Y.; Lien, W.; Tung, C.

2009-12-01

Typhoon Morakot intruded Taiwan during 7th and 8th of August 2009, brought about 2,700 mm of total rainfall which caused serious flood and debris to the southern region of Taiwan. One of the serious flooded areas is in the downstream of Zengwen reservoir. People believed that the large amount of floodwater released from Zengwen reservoir led to the severe inundation. Therefore, the Shihmen reservoir is one of the important reservoirs in northern Taiwan. The Taipei metropolis, which is in downstream of Shihmen reservoir, is the political and economical center of Taiwan. If heavy rainfall as those brought by Typhoon Marakot falls in the Shihmen reservoir watershed, it may create a bigger disaster. This study focused on the impacts of a typhoon, like Morakot, in Shihmen reservoir. The hydrological model is used to simulate the reservoir inflows under different rainfall conditions. The reservoir water balance model is developed to calculate reservoir’s storage and outflows under the inflows and operational rules. The ability of flood mitigation is also evaluated. Besides, the released floodwater from reservoir and the inflows from different tributaries are used to determine whether or not the river stage will overtop levee. Also, the maximum released floodwater and other inflows which could lead to damages will be stated. Lastly, the criteria of rainfall conditions and initial stages of reservoir will be analyzed in this study.

Heavy Rain, Flash Flooding Possible Across Parts of Lower Mississippi Valley, Southeast

NASA Image and Video Library

2017-12-08

The system that brought heavy rainfall and flash flooding to parts of the southern Plains and western Gulf Coast over the past several days continues to push eastward, with the greatest potential for heavy rain and flash flooding on Monday across parts of the lower Mississippi Valley and Southeast. This image was taken by GOES East at 1515Z on October 26, 2015. Credit: NOAA/NASA GOES Project Credit: NASA/NOAA via NOAA Environmental Visualization Laboratory NASA image use policy. NASA Goddard Space Flight Center enables NASA’s mission through four scientific endeavors: Earth Science, Heliophysics, Solar System Exploration, and Astrophysics. Goddard plays a leading role in NASA’s accomplishments by contributing compelling scientific knowledge to advance the Agency’s mission. Follow us on Twitter Like us on Facebook Find us on Instagram

Quality characterization and impact assessment of highway runoff in urban and rural area of Guangzhou, China.

PubMed

Gan, Huayang; Zhuo, Muning; Li, Dingqiang; Zhou, Yongzhang

2008-05-01

Accurate knowledge of the quality and environmental impact of the highway runoff in Pear River Delta, South China is required to assess this important non-point pollution source. This paper presents the quality characterization and environmental impact assessment of rainfall runoff from highways in urban and rural area of Guangzhou, the largest city of Pear River Delta over 1 year's investigation. Multiple regression and Pearson correlation analysis were used to determine influence of the rainfall characteristics on water quality and correlations among the constituents in highway runoff. The results and analysis indicates that the runoff water is nearly neutral with low biodegradability. Oil and grease (O&G), suspended solids (SS) and heavy metals are the dominant pollutants in contrast to the low level of nutrient constituents in runoff. Quality of highway runoff at rural site is better than that of at urban site for most constituents. Depth and antecedent dry period are the main rainfall factors influencing quality of highway runoff. The correlation patterns among constituents in highway runoff at urban site are consistent with their dominant phases in water. Strong correlations (r > or = 0.80) are found among chemical oxygen demand (COD), total phosphorus, Cu and Zn as well as conductivity, nitrate nitrogen and total nitrogen. O&G, COD, SS and Pb in highway runoff at urban site substantially exceed their concentrations in receiving water of Pear River. The soil directly discharged by highway runoff at rural site has contaminated seriously by heavy metals in surface layer accompanying with pH conversion from original acidic to alkaline at present.

Improving precipitation forecast with hybrid 3DVar and time-lagged ensembles in a heavy rainfall event

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Yuanbing; Min, Jinzhong; Chen, Yaodeng; Huang, Xiang-Yu; Zeng, Mingjian; Li, Xin

2017-01-01

This study evaluates the performance of three-dimensional variational (3DVar) and a hybrid data assimilation system using time-lagged ensembles in a heavy rainfall event. The time-lagged ensembles are constructed by sampling from a moving time window of 3 h along a model trajectory, which is economical and easy to implement. The proposed hybrid data assimilation system introduces flow-dependent error covariance derived from time-lagged ensemble into variational cost function without significantly increasing computational cost. Single observation tests are performed to document characteristic of the hybrid system. The sensitivity of precipitation forecasts to ensemble covariance weight and localization scale is investigated. Additionally, the TLEn-Var is evaluated and compared to the ETKF(ensemble transformed Kalman filter)-based hybrid assimilation within a continuously cycling framework, through which new hybrid analyses are produced every 3 h over 10 days. The 24 h accumulated precipitation, moisture, wind are analyzed between 3DVar and the hybrid assimilation using time-lagged ensembles. Results show that model states and precipitation forecast skill are improved by the hybrid assimilation using time-lagged ensembles compared with 3DVar. Simulation of the precipitable water and structure of the wind are also improved. Cyclonic wind increments are generated near the rainfall center, leading to an improved precipitation forecast. This study indicates that the hybrid data assimilation using time-lagged ensembles seems like a viable alternative or supplement in the complex models for some weather service agencies that have limited computing resources to conduct large size of ensembles.

Evaluating the extreme precipitation events using a mesoscale atmopshere model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yucel, I.; Onen, A.

2012-04-01

Evidence is showing that global warming or climate change has a direct influence on changes in precipitation and the hydrological cycle. Extreme weather events such as heavy rainfall and flooding are projected to become much more frequent as climate warms. Mesoscale atmospheric models coupled with land surface models provide efficient forecasts for meteorological events in high lead time and therefore they should be used for flood forecasting and warning issues as they provide more continuous monitoring of precipitation over large areas. This study examines the performance of the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model in producing the temporal and spatial characteristics of the number of extreme precipitation events observed in West Black Sea Region of Turkey. Extreme precipitation events usually resulted in flood conditions as an associated hydrologic response of the basin. The performance of the WRF system is further investigated by using the three dimensional variational (3D-VAR) data assimilation scheme within WRF. WRF performance with and without data assimilation at high spatial resolution (4 km) is evaluated by making comparison with gauge precipitation and satellite-estimated rainfall data from Multi Precipitation Estimates (MPE). WRF-derived precipitation showed capabilities in capturing the timing of the precipitation extremes and in some extent spatial distribution and magnitude of the heavy rainfall events. These precipitation characteristics are enhanced with the use of 3D-VAR scheme in WRF system. Data assimilation improved area-averaged precipitation forecasts by 9 percent and at some points there exists quantitative match in precipitation events, which are critical for hydrologic forecast application.

Thermodynamic and dynamic structure of atmosphere over the east coast of Peninsular Malaysia during the passage of a cold surge

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Samah, Azizan Abu; Babu, C. A.; Varikoden, Hamza; Jayakrishnan, P. R.; Hai, Ooi See

2016-08-01

An intense field observation was carried out for a better understanding of cold surge features over Peninsular Malaysia during the winter monsoon season. The study utilizes vertical profiles of temperature, humidity and wind at high vertical and temporal resolution over Kota Bharu, situated in the east coast of Peninsular Malaysia. LCL were elevated during the passage of the cold surge as the relative humidity values decreased during the passage of cold surge. Level of Free Convection were below 800 hPa and equilibrium levels were close to the LFC in most of the cases. Convective available potential energy and convection inhibition energy values were small during most of the observations. Absence of local heating and instability mechanism are responsible for the peculiar thermodynamic structure during the passage of the cold surge. The wind in the lower atmosphere became northeasterly and was strong during the entire cold surge period. A slight increase in temperature near the surface and a drop in temperature just above the surface were marked by the passage of the cold surge. A remarkable increase in specific humidity was observed between 970 and 900 hPa during the cold surge period. Further, synoptic scale features were analyzed to identify the mechanism responsible for heavy rainfall. Low level convergence, upper level divergence and cyclonic vorticity prevailed over the region during the heavy rainfall event. Dynamic structure of the atmosphere as part of the organized convection associated with the winter monsoon was responsible for the vertical lifting and subsequent rainfall.

Map showing locations of damaging landslides in Sonoma County, California, resulting from 1997-98 El Nino rainstorms

USGS Publications Warehouse

Ramsey, David W.; Godt, Jonathan W.

1999-01-01

Heavy rainfall associated with a strong El Nino caused over $150 million in landslide damage in the 10-county San Francisco Bay region during the winter and spring of 1998. A team of USGS scientists collected information on landslide locations and damage costs. About $21 million in damages were assessed in Sonoma County.

77 FR 59223 - Extension of Post-Sale Evaluation Period for Consolidated Central Gulf of Mexico Planning Area...

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2012-09-26

... Regional Office building in New Orleans and other effects of the recent hurricane impacting the region... Regional Office building in New Orleans was closed at 3:00 p.m. local time. Many BOEM employees and their... northern Gulf Coast, just south of the New Orleans metropolitan area. Heavy rainfall and high winds caused...

Changing patterns of daily precipitation totals at the Coweeta Hydrologic Laboratory, North Carolina, USA

Treesearch

T. P. Burt; C. Ford Miniat; S. H. Laseter; W. T. Swank

2017-01-01

A pattern of increasing frequency and intensity of heavy rainfall over land has been documented for several temperate regions and is associated with climate change. This study examines the changing patterns of daily precipitation at the Coweeta Hydrologic Laboratory, North Carolina, USA, since 1937 for four rain gauges across a range of elevations. We analyse...

Effects of traffic and ditch maintenance on forest road sediment production

Treesearch

Charles H. Luce; Thomas A. Black

2001-01-01

Observations of sediment yield from road segments in the Oregon Coast Range show that either heavy traffic during rainfall or blading the road ditch will increase erosion from forest roads. For the fine soils and high quality aggregate surfacing on the study plots, ditch blading increased sediment yield more than traffic equivalent to 12 log trucks per day. The...

One-dimensional modelling of the interactions between heavy rainfall-runoff in an urban area and flooding flows from sewer networks and rivers.

PubMed

Kouyi, G Lipeme; Fraisse, D; Rivière, N; Guinot, V; Chocat, B

2009-01-01

Many investigations have been carried out in order to develop models which allow the linking of complex physical processes involved in urban flooding. The modelling of the interactions between overland flows on streets and flooding flows from rivers and sewer networks is one of the main objectives of recent and current research programs in hydraulics and urban hydrology. This paper outlines the original one-dimensional linking of heavy rainfall-runoff in urban areas and flooding flows from rivers and sewer networks under the RIVES project framework (Estimation of Scenario and Risks of Urban Floods). The first part of the paper highlights the capacity of Canoe software to simulate the street flows. In the second part, we show the original method of connection which enables the modelling of interactions between processes in urban flooding. Comparisons between simulated results and the results of Despotovic et al. or Gomez & Mur show a good agreement for the calibrated one-dimensional connection model. The connection operates likes a manhole with the orifice/weir coefficients used as calibration parameters. The influence of flooding flows from river was taken into account as a variable water depth boundary condition.

Quantifying mobile and immobile zones during simulated stormwater infiltration through a new permeable pavement material.

PubMed

Bentarzi, Y; Ghenaim, A; Terfous, A; Wanko, A; Poulet, J B

2015-01-01

We have designed a new eco-material for use in permeable pavements in view to ensuring the sustainable management of stormwater in urban areas. The specific characteristic of this material is that it allows the infiltration of rainfall, storing the infiltrated water and trapping the pollutants carried by runoff such as engine oil and heavy metals. This new material is composed of a mixture of crushed concrete , resulting from inert construction waste, and organic material (compost). We performed tracing experiments in view to monitor the flow of the water within this material in order to study its hydrodynamics under heavy rainfall (rain with a return period of 10 years). The experimental results revealed preferential flows due to the heterogeneity of the material and liable to act as a major vector for the mobility of the pollutants transported within the material by stormwater. The work presented in this article consists in quantifying these preferential flows by determining their water contents in mobile (θm) and immobile (θim) water during infiltration. To do this, we used the (NON-EQUILIBRIUM Convection-Dispersion Equation) model, in order to evaluate mobile and stagnant zones in the framework of tracing experiments.

Aerodynamic penalties of heavy rain on a landing aircraft

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Haines, P. A.; Luers, J. K.

1982-01-01

The aerodynamic penalties of very heavy rain on landing aircraft were investigated. Based on severity and frequency of occurrence, the rainfall rates of 100 mm/hr, 500 mm/hr, and 2000 mm/hr were designated, respectively, as heavy, severe, and incredible. The overall and local collection efficiencies of an aircraft encountering these rains were calculated. The analysis was based on raindrop trajectories in potential flow about an aircraft. All raindrops impinging on the aircraft are assumed to take on its speed. The momentum loss from the rain impact was later used in a landing simulation program. The local collection efficiency was used in estimating the aerodynamic roughness of an aircraft in heavy rain. The drag increase from this roughness was calculated. A number of landing simulations under a fixed stick assumption were done. Serious landing shortfalls were found for either momentum or drag penalties and especially large shortfalls for the combination of both. The latter shortfalls are comparable to those found for severe wind shear conditions.

Improved estimation of heavy rainfall by weather radar after reflectivity correction and accounting for raindrop size distribution variability

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hazenberg, Pieter; Leijnse, Hidde; Uijlenhoet, Remko

2015-04-01

Between 25 and 27 August 2010 a long-duration mesoscale convective system was observed above the Netherlands, locally giving rise to rainfall accumulations exceeding 150 mm. Correctly measuring the amount of precipitation during such an extreme event is important, both from a hydrological and meteorological perspective. Unfortunately, the operational weather radar measurements were affected by multiple sources of error and only 30% of the precipitation observed by rain gauges was estimated. Such an underestimation of heavy rainfall, albeit generally less strong than in this extreme case, is typical for operational weather radar in The Netherlands. In general weather radar measurement errors can be subdivided into two groups: (1) errors affecting the volumetric reflectivity measurements (e.g. ground clutter, radar calibration, vertical profile of reflectivity) and (2) errors resulting from variations in the raindrop size distribution that in turn result in incorrect rainfall intensity and attenuation estimates from observed reflectivity measurements. A stepwise procedure to correct for the first group of errors leads to large improvements in the quality of the estimated precipitation, increasing the radar rainfall accumulations to about 65% of those observed by gauges. To correct for the second group of errors, a coherent method is presented linking the parameters of the radar reflectivity-rain rate (Z-R) and radar reflectivity-specific attenuation (Z-k) relationships to the normalized drop size distribution (DSD). Two different procedures were applied. First, normalized DSD parameters for the whole event and for each precipitation type separately (convective, stratiform and undefined) were obtained using local disdrometer observations. Second, 10,000 randomly generated plausible normalized drop size distributions were used for rainfall estimation, to evaluate whether this Monte Carlo method would improve the quality of weather radar rainfall products. Using the disdrometer information, the best results were obtained in case no differentiation between precipitation type (convective, stratiform and undefined) was made, increasing the event accumulations to more than 80% of those observed by gauges. For the randomly optimized procedure, radar precipitation estimates further improve and closely resemble observations in case one differentiates between precipitation type. However, the optimal parameter sets are very different from those derived from disdrometer observations. It is therefore questionable if single disdrometer observations are suitable for large-scale quantitative precipitation estimation, especially if the disdrometer is located relatively far away from the main rain event, which was the case in this study. In conclusion, this study shows the benefit of applying detailed error correction methods to improve the quality of the weather radar product, but also confirms the need to be cautious using locally obtained disdrometer measurements.

Survival and brood rearing ecology of emperor geese

USGS Publications Warehouse

Schmutz, Joel A.

2000-01-01

Emperor Geese (Chen canagica) breed on the Yukon-Kuskokwim Delta in an area inhabited by three other goose species. Whereas populations of other geese increased since the mid 1980s, Emperor Goose numbers remained low. Because survival and habitat selection by broods of Emeperor Geese had not been studied previously and numbers of predatory Glaucous Gulls (Larus hyperboreus) had recently increased, I studied brood rearing ecology of Emperor Geese during 1993-1996 to assess whether this seasonal period could be limiting population growth. Survival of goslings to 30 days varied among years from 0.32 to 0.70 and was primarily influenced by mortality during the first five days after hatch. Other goose species with similar rates of gosling survival are increasing rapidly. Survival of Emperor Goose goslings was lowest in 1994, when unusually heavy rainfall occurred during early brood rearing. Using a long-term data set from Izembek National Wildlife Refuge, sizes of families in fall (n=23 years) were related to rainfall during early brood rearing. Gosling survival was lower and gull disturbance of broods greater in 1993-1994 than in 1995-1996. Although goslings wer commonly consumed by Glaucous Gulls, gull diets during 1993 were similar to those observed in the 1970s. Across a broad scale, broods of Emperor Geese (n=56) strongly selected habitats dominated by Carex subspathaceae, Carex ramenskii, and unvegetated areas interspersed among these forage species, as determined from telemetry. These selected habitats comprised one-third of all available habitat. Habitat selection by the composite goose community (dominated by Cackling Canada Geese [Branta canadensis minima]) was assessed by feces collections and differed substantially from that of Emperor Geese. Broods of Emperor Geese spent more time feeding during 1993-1996 than during an earlier study in 1985-1986. During 1994-1996, feeding rates of gosling and adult females was related more to total goose density than to Emperor Goose density. Although Cackling Canada Geese exhibited strongest selection of other habitats, their greater overall abundance resulted in numerical equivalence to Emperor Geese in habitats preferred by Emperor Geese. Interspecific competition for food has impacted behavior in Emperor Geese, which may impact growth and survival of juvenile geese.

Climate Assessment for 2000.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lawrimore, Jay H.; Halpert, Michael S.; Bell, Gerald D.; Menne, Matthew J.; Lyon, Bradfield; Schnell, Russell C.; Gleason, Karin L.; Easterling, David R.; Thiaw, Wasila; Wright, William J.; Heim, Richard R., Jr.; Robinson, David A.; Alexander, Lisa

2001-06-01

The global climate in 2000 was again influenced by the long-running Pacific cold episode (La Niña) that began in mid-1998. Consistent with past cold episodes, enhanced convection occurred across the climatologically convective regions of Indonesia and the western equatorial Pacific, while convection was suppressed in the central Pacific. The La Niña was also associated with a well-defined African easterly jet located north of its climatological mean position and low vertical wind shear in the tropical Atlantic and Caribbean, both of which contributed to an active North Atlantic hurricane season. Precipitation patterns influenced by typical La Niña conditions included 1) above-average rainfall in southeastern Africa, 2) unusually heavy rainfall in northern and central regions of Australia, 3) enhanced precipitation in the tropical Indian Ocean and western tropical Pacific, 4) little rainfall in the central tropical Pacific, 5) below-normal precipitation over equatorial east Africa, and 6) drier-than-normal conditions along the Gulf coast of the United States.Although no hurricanes made landfall in the United States in 2000, another active North Atlantic hurricane season featured 14 named storms, 8 of which became hurricanes, with 3 growing to major hurricane strength. All of the named storms over the North Atlantic formed during the August-October period with the first hurricane of the season, Hurricane Alberto, notable as the third-longest-lived tropical system since reliable records began in 1945. The primary human loss during the 2000 season occurred in Central America, where Hurricane Gordon killed 19 in Guatemala, and Hurricane Keith killed 19 in Belize and caused $200 million dollars of damage.Other regional events included 1) record warm January-October temperatures followed by record cold November-December temperatures in the United States, 2) extreme drought and widespread wildfires in the southern and western Unites States, 3) continued long-term drought in the Hawaiian Islands throughout the year with record 24-h rainfall totals in November, 4) deadly storms and flooding in western Europe in October, 5) a summer heat wave and drought in southern Europe, 6) monsoon flooding in parts of Southeast Asia and India, 7) extreme winter conditions in Mongolia, 8) extreme long-term drought in the Middle East and Southwest Asia, and 9) severe flooding in southern Africa.Global mean temperatures remained much above average in 2000. The average land and ocean temperature was 0.39°C above the 1880-1999 long-term mean, continuing a trend to warmer-than-average temperatures that made the 1990s the warmest decade on record. While the persistence of La Niña conditions in 2000 was associated with somewhat cooler temperatures in the Tropics, temperatures in the extratropics remained near record levels. Land surface temperatures in the high latitudes of the Northern Hemisphere were notably warmer than normal, with annually averaged anomalies greater than 2°C in parts of Alaska, Canada, Asia, and northern Europe.

A Stand-Alone Demography and Landscape Structure Module for Earth System Models: Integration with Inventory Data from Temperate and Boreal Forests

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hess, L.; Basso, B.; Hinckley, E. L. S.; Robertson, G. P.; Matson, P. A.

2014-12-01

In the coming century, the proportion of total rainfall that falls in heavy storm events is expected to increase in many areas, especially in the US Midwest, a major agricultural region. These changes in rainfall patterns may have consequences for hydrologic flow and nutrient losses, especially in agricultural soils, with potentially negative consequences for receiving ground- and surface waters. We used a tracer experiment to examine how more extreme rainfall patterns may affect the movement of water and solutes through an agricultural soil profile in the upper Midwest, and to what extent tillage may moderate these effects. Two rainfall patterns were created with 5m x 5m rainout shelters at the Kellogg Biological Station LTER site in replicated plots with either conventional tillage or no-till management. Control rainfall treatments received water 3x per week, and extreme rainfall treatments received the same total amount of water but once every two weeks, to simulate less frequent but larger storms. In April 2015, potassium bromide (KBr) was added as a conservative tracer of water flow to all plots, and Br- concentrations in soil water at 1.2m depth were measured weekly from April through July. Soil water Br- concentrations increased and peaked more quickly under the extreme rainfall treatment, suggesting increased infiltration and solute transfer to depth compared to soils exposed to control rainfall patterns. Soil water Br- also increased and peaked more quickly in no-till than in conventional tillage treatments, indicating differences in flow paths between management systems. Soil moisture measured every 15 minutes at 10, 40, and 100cm depths corroborates tracer experiment results: rainfall events simulated in extreme rainfall treatments led to large increases in deep soil moisture, while the smaller rainfall events simulated under control conditions did not. Deep soil moisture in no-till treatments also increased sooner after water application as compared to in conventional soils. Our results suggest that exposure to more extreme rainfall patterns will likely increase infiltration depth and nutrient losses in agricultural soils. In particular, soils under no-till management, which leads to development of preferential flow paths, may be particularly vulnerable to vertical nutrient losses.

An experimental operative system for shallow landslide and flash flood warning based on rainfall thresholds and soil moisture modelling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Brigandı, G.; Aronica, G. T.; Basile, G.; Pasotti, L.; Panebianco, M.

2012-04-01

On November 2011 a thunderstorms became almost exceptional over the North-East part of the Sicily Region (Italy) producing local heavy rainfall, mud-debris flow and flash flooding. The storm was concentrated on the Tyrrhenian sea coast near the city of Barcellona within the Longano catchment. Main focus of the paper is to present an experimental operative system for alerting extreme hydrometeorological events by using a methodology based on the combined use of rainfall thresholds, soil moisture indexes and quantitative precipitation forecasting. As matter of fact, shallow landslide and flash flood warning is a key element to improve the Civil Protection achievements to mitigate damages and safeguard the security of people. It is a rather complicated task, particularly in those catchments with flashy response where even brief anticipations are important and welcomed. It is well known how the triggering of shallow landslides is strongly influenced by the initial soil moisture conditions of catchments. Therefore, the early warning system here applied is based on the combined use of rainfall thresholds, derived both for flash flood and for landslide, and soil moisture conditions; the system is composed of several basic component related to antecedent soil moisture conditions, real-time rainfall monitoring and antecedent rainfall. Soil moisture conditions were estimated using an Antecedent Precipitation Index (API), similar to this widely used for defining soil moisture conditions via Antecedent Moisture conditions index AMC. Rainfall threshold for landslides were derived using historical and statistical analysis. Finally, rainfall thresholds for flash flooding were derived using an Instantaneous Unit Hydrograph based lumped rainfall-runoff model with the SCS-CN routine for net rainfall. After the implementation and calibration of the model, a testing phase was carried out by using real data collected for the November 2001 event in the Longano catchment. Moreover, in order to test the capability of the system to forecast thise event, Quantitative Precipitation Forecasting provided by the SILAM (Sicily Limited Area Model), a meteorological model run by SIAS (Sicilian Agrometeorological Service) with a forecast horizon up to 144 hours, have been used to run the system.

Evaluation of quantitative precipitation forecasts by TIGGE ensembles for south China during the presummer rainy season

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Huang, Ling; Luo, Yali

2017-08-01

Based on The Observing System Research and Predictability Experiment Interactive Grand Global Ensemble (TIGGE) data set, this study evaluates the ability of global ensemble prediction systems (EPSs) from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF), U.S. National Centers for Environmental Prediction, Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA), Korean Meteorological Administration, and China Meteorological Administration (CMA) to predict presummer rainy season (April-June) precipitation in south China. Evaluation of 5 day forecasts in three seasons (2013-2015) demonstrates the higher skill of probability matching forecasts compared to simple ensemble mean forecasts and shows that the deterministic forecast is a close second. The EPSs overestimate light-to-heavy rainfall (0.1 to 30 mm/12 h) and underestimate heavier rainfall (>30 mm/12 h), with JMA being the worst. By analyzing the synoptic situations predicted by the identified more skillful (ECMWF) and less skillful (JMA and CMA) EPSs and the ensemble sensitivity for four representative cases of torrential rainfall, the transport of warm-moist air into south China by the low-level southwesterly flow, upstream of the torrential rainfall regions, is found to be a key synoptic factor that controls the quantitative precipitation forecast. The results also suggest that prediction of locally produced torrential rainfall is more challenging than prediction of more extensively distributed torrential rainfall. A slight improvement in the performance is obtained by shortening the forecast lead time from 30-36 h to 18-24 h to 6-12 h for the cases with large-scale forcing, but not for the locally produced cases.

Mixed memory, (non) Hurst effect, and maximum entropy of rainfall in the tropical Andes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Poveda, Germán

2011-02-01

Diverse linear and nonlinear statistical parameters of rainfall under aggregation in time and the kind of temporal memory are investigated. Data sets from the Andes of Colombia at different resolutions (15 min and 1-h), and record lengths (21 months and 8-40 years) are used. A mixture of two timescales is found in the autocorrelation and autoinformation functions, with short-term memory holding for time lags less than 15-30 min, and long-term memory onwards. Consistently, rainfall variance exhibits different temporal scaling regimes separated at 15-30 min and 24 h. Tests for the Hurst effect evidence the frailty of the R/ S approach in discerning the kind of memory in high resolution rainfall, whereas rigorous statistical tests for short-memory processes do reject the existence of the Hurst effect. Rainfall information entropy grows as a power law of aggregation time, S( T) ˜ Tβ with < β> = 0.51, up to a timescale, TMaxEnt (70-202 h), at which entropy saturates, with β = 0 onwards. Maximum entropy is reached through a dynamic Generalized Pareto distribution, consistently with the maximum information-entropy principle for heavy-tailed random variables, and with its asymptotically infinitely divisible property. The dynamics towards the limit distribution is quantified. Tsallis q-entropies also exhibit power laws with T, such that Sq( T) ˜ Tβ( q) , with β( q) ⩽ 0 for q ⩽ 0, and β( q) ≃ 0.5 for q ⩾ 1. No clear patterns are found in the geographic distribution within and among the statistical parameters studied, confirming the strong variability of tropical Andean rainfall.

Extreme rainfall events: Learning from raingauge time series

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Boni, G.; Parodi, A.; Rudari, R.

2006-08-01

SummaryThis study analyzes the historical records of annual rainfall maxima recorded in Northern Italy, cumulated over time windows (durations) of 1 and 24 h and considered paradigmatic descriptions of storms of both short and long duration. Three large areas are studied: Liguria, Piedmont and Triveneto (Triveneto includes the Regions of Veneto, Trentino Alto Adige and Friuli Venezia Giulia). A regional frequency analysis of annual rainfall maxima is carried out through the Two Components Extreme Value (TCEV) distribution. A hierarchical approach is used to define statistically homogeneous areas so that the definition of a regional distribution becomes possible. Thanks to the peculiar nature of the TCEV distribution, a frequency-based threshold criterion is proposed. Such criterion allows to distinguish the observed ordinary values from the observed extra-ordinary values of annual rainfall maxima. A second step of this study focuses on the analysis of the probability of occurrence of extra-ordinary events over a period of one year. Results show the existence of a four month dominant season that maximizes the number of occurrences of annual rainfall maxima. Such results also show how the seasonality of extra-ordinary events changes whenever a different duration of events is considered. The joint probability of occurrence of extreme storms of short and long duration is also analyzed. Such analysis demonstrates how the joint probability of occurrence significantly changes when all rainfall maxima or only extra-ordinary maxima are used. All results undergo a critical discussion. Such discussion seems to lead to the point that the identified statistical characteristics might represent the landmark of those mechanisms causing heavy precipitation in the analyzed regions.

Evaluation of WRF-based convection-permitting multi-physics ensemble forecasts over China for an extreme rainfall event on 21 July 2012 in Beijing

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhu, Kefeng; Xue, Ming

2016-11-01

On 21 July 2012, an extreme rainfall event that recorded a maximum rainfall amount over 24 hours of 460 mm, occurred in Beijing, China. Most operational models failed to predict such an extreme amount. In this study, a convective-permitting ensemble forecast system (CEFS), at 4-km grid spacing, covering the entire mainland of China, is applied to this extreme rainfall case. CEFS consists of 22 members and uses multiple physics parameterizations. For the event, the predicted maximum is 415 mm d-1 in the probability-matched ensemble mean. The predicted high-probability heavy rain region is located in southwest Beijing, as was observed. Ensemble-based verification scores are then investigated. For a small verification domain covering Beijing and its surrounding areas, the precipitation rank histogram of CEFS is much flatter than that of a reference global ensemble. CEFS has a lower (higher) Brier score and a higher resolution than the global ensemble for precipitation, indicating more reliable probabilistic forecasting by CEFS. Additionally, forecasts of different ensemble members are compared and discussed. Most of the extreme rainfall comes from convection in the warm sector east of an approaching cold front. A few members of CEFS successfully reproduce such precipitation, and orographic lift of highly moist low-level flows with a significantly southeasterly component is suggested to have played important roles in producing the initial convection. Comparisons between good and bad forecast members indicate a strong sensitivity of the extreme rainfall to the mesoscale environmental conditions, and, to less of an extent, the model physics.

Case study: Rainfall partitioning across a natural-to-urban forest gradient during an extreme rain event

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Akin, B. H.; Van Stan, J. T., II; Cote, J. F.; Jarvis, M. T.; Underwood, J.; Friesen, J.; Hildebrandt, A.; Maldonado, G.

2017-12-01

Trees' partitioning of rainfall is an important first process along the rainfall-to-runoff pathway that has economically significant influences on urban stormwater management. However, important knowledge gaps exist regarding (1) its role during extreme storms and (2) how this role changes as forest structure is altered by urbanization. Little research has been conducted on canopy rainfall partitioning during large, intense storms, likely because canopy water storage is rapidly overwhelmed (i.e., 1-3 mm) by short duration events exceeding, for example, 80 mm of rainfall. However, canopy structure controls more than just storage; it also affects the time for rain to drain to the surface (becoming throughfall) and the micrometeorological conditions that drive wet canopy evaporation. In fact, observations from an example extreme ( 100 mm with maximum 5-minute intensities exceeding 55 mm/h) storm across a urban-to-natural gradient in pine forests in southeast Georgia (USA), show that storm intensities were differentially dampened by 33% (tree row), 28% (forest fragment), and 17% (natural forests). In addition, maximum wet canopy evaporation rates were higher for the exposed tree row (0.18 mm/h) than for the partially-enclosed fragment canopy (0.14 mm/h) and the closed canopy natural forest site (0.11). This resulted in interception percentages decreasing from urban-to-natural stand structures (25% to 16%). A synoptic analysis of the extreme storm in this case study also shows that the mesoscale meteorological conditions that developed the heavy rainfall is expected to occur more often with projected climate changes.

Abrupt state change of river water quality (turbidity): Effect of extreme rainfalls and typhoons.

PubMed

Lee, Chih-Sheng; Lee, Yi-Chao; Chiang, Hui-Min

2016-07-01

River turbidity is of dynamic nature, and its stable state is significantly changed during the period of heavy rainfall events. The frequent occurrence of typhoons in Taiwan has caused serious problems in drinking water treatment due to extremely high turbidity. The aim of the present study is to evaluate impact of typhoons on river turbidity. The statistical methods used included analyses of paired annual mean and standard deviation, frequency distribution, and moving standard deviation, skewness, and autocorrelation; all clearly indicating significant state changes of river turbidity. Typhoon Morakot of 2009 (recorded high rainfall over 2000mm in three days, responsible for significant disaster in southern Taiwan) is assumed as a major initiated event leading to critical state change. In addition, increasing rate of turbidity in rainfall events is highly and positively correlated with rainfall intensity both for pre- and post-Morakot periods. Daily turbidity is also well correlated with daily flow rate for all the eleven events evaluated. That implies potential prediction of river turbidity by river flow rate during rainfall and typhoon events. Based on analysis of stable state changes, more effective regulations for better basin management including soil-water conservation in watershed are necessary. Furthermore, municipal and industrial water treatment plants need to prepare and ensure the adequate operation of water treatment with high raw water turbidity (e.g., >2000NTU). Finally, methodology used in the present of this study can be applied to other environmental problems with abrupt state changes. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Rainfall characteristics associated to the triggering of fast- and slow-moving landslides - a comparison between the South French Alps and Lower Austria

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Remaitre, Alexandre; Wallner, Stefan; Promper, Catrin; Glade, Thomas; Malet, Jean-Philippe

2013-04-01

Rainfall is worldwide a recognized trigger of landslides. Numerous studies were conducted in order to define the relationships between the precipitations and the triggering or the reactivation of landslides. Hydrological triggering of landslides can be divided in three general types: (1) development of local perched water tables in the subsoil leading to shallow slope instabilities and possible gravitational flows, (2) long-lasting rise in permanent water tables leading to more deep-seated slope instabilities, and (3) intense runoff causing channel-bed erosion and debris flows. Types (1) and (3) are usually observed during high rainfall intensities (hourly and daily rainfall) associated to heavy storms; type (2) is usually observed through increasing water content in the subsoil due to antecedent rainfalls (weekly or monthly rainfall) and/or massive snowmelt. Many investigations have been carried out to determine the amount of precipitation needed to trigger slopes failures. For rainfall-induced landslides a threshold may be define the rainfall, soil moisture or hydrological conditions that, when reached or exceeded, are likely to trigger landslides. Usually rainfall thresholds can be defined on physical process-based or conceptual models or empirical, historical and statistical bases. Nevertheless, both the large variety of landslides and to the extreme variety of climatic conditions leading to the triggering or the reactivation of a landslide lead to a regional definition of relationships between landslide occurrence and associated climatic conditions. The purpose of this case study is to analyze the relationships between the triggering of three types of landslides, debris flows, shallow landslides and deep-seated mudslides, and different patterns of rainfall in two study sites with different physiographic and climatic characteristics: the Barcelonnette basin in the South French Alps and the Waidhofen an der Ybbs area in Lower Austria. For this purpose, we exploit for the two test sites a landslide catalogue and rainfall data series to define a typology of rainfall induced-landslides for the relevant landslide types. Results from an analysis of the rainfall conditions associated to these events at different time scale (yearly, monthly, daily and hourly) show a clear distinction between these landslides. Slow-moving landslides are often associated to persistent rainstorms with low intensities during long periods causing the saturation of the soils while fast-moving landslides are usually triggered by short rainfall events with high intensities that occur in summer.

Automated Statistical Forecast Method to 36-48H ahead of Storm Wind and Dangerous Precipitation at the Mediterranean Region

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Perekhodtseva, E. V.

2009-09-01

Development of successful method of forecast of storm winds, including squalls and tornadoes and heavy rainfalls, that often result in human and material losses, could allow one to take proper measures against destruction of buildings and to protect people. Well-in-advance successful forecast (from 12 hours to 48 hour) makes possible to reduce the losses. Prediction of the phenomena involved is a very difficult problem for synoptic till recently. The existing graphic and calculation methods still depend on subjective decision of an operator. Nowadays in Russia there is no hydrodynamic model for forecast of the maximal precipitation and wind velocity V> 25m/c, hence the main tools of objective forecast are statistical methods using the dependence of the phenomena involved on a number of atmospheric parameters (predictors). Statistical decisive rule of the alternative and probability forecast of these events was obtained in accordance with the concept of "perfect prognosis" using the data of objective analysis. For this purpose the different teaching samples of present and absent of this storm wind and rainfalls were automatically arranged that include the values of forty physically substantiated potential predictors. Then the empirical statistical method was used that involved diagonalization of the mean correlation matrix R of the predictors and extraction of diagonal blocks of strongly correlated predictors. Thus for these phenomena the most informative predictors were selected without loosing information. The statistical decisive rules for diagnosis and prognosis of the phenomena involved U(X) were calculated for choosing informative vector-predictor. We used the criterion of distance of Mahalanobis and criterion of minimum of entropy by Vapnik-Chervonenkis for the selection predictors. Successful development of hydrodynamic models for short-term forecast and improvement of 36-48h forecasts of pressure, temperature and others parameters allowed us to use the prognostic fields of those models for calculations of the discriminant functions in the nodes of the grid 150x150km and the values of probabilities P of dangerous wind and thus to get fully automated forecasts. In order to change to the alternative forecast the author proposes the empirical threshold values specified for this phenomenon and advance period 36 hours. In the accordance to the Pirsey-Obukhov criterion (T), the success of these automated statistical methods of forecast of squalls and tornadoes to 36 -48 hours ahead and heavy rainfalls in the warm season for the territory of Italy, Spain and Balkan countries is T = 1-a-b=0,54: 0,78 after author experiments. A lot of examples of very successful forecasts of summer storm wind and heavy rainfalls over the Italy and Spain territory are submitted at this report. The same decisive rules were applied to the forecast of these phenomena during cold period in this year too. This winter heavy snowfalls in Spain and in Italy and storm wind at this territory were observed very often. And our forecasts are successful.

Mobility of Pb, Cu, and Zn in the phosphorus-amended contaminated soils under simulated landfill and rainfall conditions.

PubMed

Cao, Xinde; Liang, Yuan; Zhao, Ling; Le, Huangying

2013-09-01

Phosphorus-bearing materials have been widely applied in immobilization of heavy metals in contaminated soils. However, the study on the stability of the initially P-induced immobilized metals in the contaminated soils is far limited. This work was conducted to evaluate the mobility of Pb, Cu, and Zn in two contrasting contaminated soils amended with phosphate rock tailing (PR) and triple superphosphate fertilizer (TSP), and their combination (P + T) under simulated landfill and rainfall conditions. The main objective was to determine the stability of heavy metals in the P-treated contaminated soils in response to the changing environment conditions. The soils were amended with the P-bearing materials at a 2:1 molar ratio of P to metals. After equilibrated for 2 weeks, the soils were evaluated with the leaching procedures. The batch-based toxicity characteristic leaching procedure (TCLP) was conducted to determine the leachability of heavy metals from both untreated and P-treated soils under simulated landfill condition. The column-based synthetic precipitation leaching procedure (SPLP) were undertaken to measure the downward migration of metals from untreated and P-treated soils under simulated rainfall condition. Leachability of Pb, Cu, and Zn in the TCLP extract followed the order of Zn > Cu > Pb in both soils, with the organic-C- and clay-poor soil showing higher metal leachability than the organic-C- and clay-rich soil. All three P treatments reduced leachability of Pb, Cu, and Zn by up to 89.2, 24.4, and 34.3 %, respectively, compared to the untreated soil, and TSP revealed more effectiveness followed by P + T and then PR. The column experiments showed that Zn had the highest downward migration upon 10 pore volumes of SPLP leaching, followed by Pb and then Cu in both soils. However, migration of Pb and Zn to subsoil and leachate were inhibited in the P-treated soil, while Cu in the leachate was enhanced by P treatment in the organic-C-rich soil. More than 73 % P in the amendments remained in the upper 0-10 cm soil layers. However, leaching of P from soluble TSP was significant with 24.3 % of P migrated in the leachate in the organic-C-poor soil. The mobility of heavy metals in the P-treated soil varies with nature of P sources, heavy metals, and soils. Caution should be taken on the multi-metal stabilization since the P amendment may immobilize some metals while promoting others' mobility. Also, attention should be paid to the high leaching of P from soluble P amendments since it may pose the risk of excessive P-induced eutrophication.

Assessment of C-band Polarimetric Radar Rainfall Measurements During Strong Attenuation.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Paredes-Victoria, P. N.; Rico-Ramirez, M. A.; Pedrozo-Acuña, A.

2016-12-01

In the modern hydrological modelling and their applications on flood forecasting systems and climate modelling, reliable spatiotemporal rainfall measurements are the keystone. Raingauges are the foundation in hydrology to collect rainfall data, however they are prone to errors (e.g. systematic, malfunctioning, and instrumental errors). Moreover rainfall data from gauges is often used to calibrate and validate weather radar rainfall, which is distributed in space. Therefore, it is important to apply techniques to control the quality of the raingauge data in order to guarantee a high level of confidence in rainfall measurements for radar calibration and numerical weather modelling. Also, the reliability of radar data is often limited because of the errors in the radar signal (e.g. clutter, variation of the vertical reflectivity profile, beam blockage, attenuation, etc) which need to be corrected in order to increase the accuracy of the radar rainfall estimation. This paper presents a method for raingauge-measurement quality-control correction based on the inverse distance weighted as a function of correlated climatology (i.e. performed by using the reflectivity from weather radar). Also a Clutter Mitigation Decision (CMD) algorithm is applied for clutter filtering process, finally three algorithms based on differential phase measurements are applied for radar signal attenuation correction. The quality-control method proves that correlated climatology is very sensitive in the first 100 kilometres for this area. The results also showed that ground clutter affects slightly the radar measurements due to the low gradient of the terrain in the area. However, strong radar signal attenuation is often found in this data set due to the heavy storms that take place in this region and the differential phase measurements are crucial to correct for attenuation at C-band frequencies. The study area is located in Sabancuy-Campeche, Mexico (Latitude 18.97 N, Longitude 91.17º W) and the radar rainfall measurements are obtained from a C-band polarimetric radar whereas raingauge measurements come from stations with 10-min and 24-hr time resolutions.

[Effects of Suaeda glauca planting and straw mulching on soil salinity dynamics and desalination in extremely heavy saline soil of coastal areas.

PubMed

Zhang, Jiao; Cui, Shi You; Feng, Zhi Xiang

2018-05-01

To elucidate the seasonal variations in soil salinity and its driving factors, and to explore the effects of planting Suaeda glauca and straw mulching on soil desalination and salinity controlling, a field experiment was conducted in extremely heavy saline soil of coastal areas in Rudong, Jiangsu Province. There were four treatments: control (bare land, CK), planting S. glauca (PS), straw mulching A (at 15 t·hm -2 , SM-A), straw mulching 2A (at 30 t·hm -2 , SM-2A). Climate factors (including rainfall, atmospheric temperature, sunshine duration, and atmospheric evaporation) and soil salinity dynamic changes were determined from May 2014 to May 2015. Results showed that: (1) The seasonal variation of soil salinity was obvious in the bare ground (CK), with the lowest (8.69 g·kg -1 ) during June-August and the highest (26.66 g·kg -1 ) during September-December. The changes of soil salinity in topsoil (0-20 cm) were more intense than that in sub-topsoil (20-40 cm), with the changes in sub-topsoil having somewhat time lag compared the topsoil. (2) Soil salinity in CK treatment had a significantly linear correlation with the cumulative rainfall and evaporation-precipitation ratio of the fifteen-day before sampling. The results from multifactor and interphase analysis indicated that the increases of rainfall would promote soil desalinization. The rise of atmospheric temperature could exacerbate soil salt accumulation in surface soil. The interaction between rainfall and atmospheric temperature would have a positive effect on soil salt accumulation. (3) PS treatment did not alter the seasonal variation in soil salinity, but it reduced soil salinity in topsoil. (4) In SM-A and SM-2A treatments, the relationship of soil desalinization rate (%, Y) and treatment time (days, X) was expressed as Logistic curve equation. Moreover, the soil desalination rate was over 95.0% in the topsoil after 90-100 days of straw mul-ching treatment and was over 92.0% in sub-topsoil after 120 days of straw mulching treatment. The soil salinity in SM-A and SM-2A treatments fluctuated below 0.60 g·kg -1 and 1.00 g·kg -1 , respectively in topsoil and sub-topsoil. Considering the desalination and economic costs, a suitable amount of straw mulching (such as 15 t·hm -2 ) before rainy season was recommended, which would promote the soil desalinization and reclamation in extremely heavy saline soil of coastal areas.

Tachycardia During Resistance Exercise: A Case Study.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Fry, Andrew C.; Parks, Michael J.

2001-01-01

This case study examined a weight-trained (WT) male who had an unusually high heart rate response to heavy resistance exercise and self-administered anabolic androgenic steroids as an ergogenic aid to training. The subject was compared to 18 other WT people. His tachycardia response occurred only in the presence of a pressure load and not with a…

Fatigue in U.S. Astronauts Onboard the International Space Station: Environmental factors, Operational Impacts, and Implementation of Countermeasures

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Scheuring, R. A.; Moomaw, R. C.; Johnston, S. L.

2015-01-01

Crewmembers have experienced fatigue for reasons similar to military deployments. Astronauts experience psychological stressors such as: heavy workloads, extended duty periods, circadian misalignment, inadequate/ineffective sleep, distracting background noise, unexpected and variable mission schedules, unfavorable thermal control, unusual sleep environment with schedules that impinge on pre-sleep periods.

Unusual Evolution of the Conduction-Electron State in CexLa1-xB6 from Non-Fermi Liquid to Fermi Liquid

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nakamura, S.; Endo, M.; Yamamoto, H.; Isshiki, T.; Kimura, N.; Aoki, H.; Nojima, T.; Otani, S.; Kunii, S.

2006-12-01

We report unusual evolution of the conduction-electron state in the localized f electron system CexLa1-xB6 from normal electron state to heavy Fermi liquid (FL) state through local FL and non-FL states with increasing Ce concentration and/or with increasing magnetic field. The effective mass of quasiparticle or the coefficient A of T2 term of resistivity is found to increase divergently near the boundary between FL state and non-FL state. The features of the non-FL state are also different from those of the typical non-FL systems previously observed or theoretically predicted.

Map showing locations of damaging landslides in Santa Clara County, California, resulting from 1997-98 El Nino rainstorms

USGS Publications Warehouse

Ellis, William L.; Harp, Edwin L.; Arnal, Caroline H.; Godt, Jonathan W.

1999-01-01

Heavy rainfall associated with a strong El Nino caused over $150 million in landslide damage in the 10-county San Francisco Bay region during the winter and spring of 1998. A team of USGS scientists collected information on landslide locations and damage costs. About $7.6 million in damages were assessed in Santa Clara County.

Can earthquake fissures predispose hillslopes to landslides? - Evidence from Central and East Asia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sidle, Roy C.; Gomi, Takashi; Rajapbaev, Muslim; Chyngozhoev, Nurstan

2017-04-01

Factors affecting earthquake-initiated landslides include earthquake magnitude, focal depth, and seismic wave propagation and attenuation. In contrast to rainfall-initiated landslides, earthquake-induced landslides often occur on convex slopes and near ridgelines. Here we present evidence from Fergana Basin, Kyrgyzstan and Kumamoto, Japan on how fissures developed during earthquakes may promote subsequent initiation of rainfall-triggered landslides. More than 1800 recent major landslides in hilly terrain and soft sediments of the Fergana Basin have been largely attributed to accumulation of heavy rainfall and snowmelt. While no large earthquakes have occurred in the Fergana Basin, smaller earthquakes have generated fissures near ridgelines and on convex slopes. The connection of fissures, developed years or decades before slope failure, with preferential transport of rainwater and runoff into the soil has not been previously investigated. Fissures have been observed to expand with time, particularly during subsequent minor earthquakes, further promoting preferential infiltration. Because the soil mantle does not have large contrasts in permeability that would define a slip plane for landslides, it appears that the position and depth of these fissures may control the location and depth of failures. Zones in the soil where surficial inputs of water are preferentially transported, augment natural subsurface accumulation of antecedent rainfall. Many landslides in the eastern Fergana Basin occur after several months of accumulated precipitation and groundwater has been observed emerging on critical hillside locations (near ridgelines and on convex slopes) prior to slope failure. During the 2016 Kumamoto Earthquake (M 7.3), many landslides were triggered in forest and grassland hillslopes near Mount Aso. All of these earthquakes were shallow (focal depths about 10 km), causing high shaking intensity and ground rupturing. Because soils were relatively dry during these earthquakes, occurrence of debris flows was limited. Instead, most landslides travelled limited distances and consisted of ruptured soil blocks. Large, parallel fissures developed along ridgelines and convex slopes, providing opportunities for preferential flow to initiate mass wasting during later heavy rainfalls. The progressive deterioration of ridgelines could change future catchment drainage patterns. Additionally, sediment accumulated in headwater channels from the initial earthquake-triggered landslides may mobilize as devastating debris flows after additional sediment loading during a large storm. As such, cascading effects of prior earthquakes on later mass wasting appear evident in both regions.

Flash floods in Europe: state of the art and research perspectives

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gaume, Eric

2014-05-01

Flash floods, i.e. floods induced by severe rainfall events generally affecting watersheds of limited area, are the most frequent, destructive and deadly kind of natural hazard known in Europe and throughout the world. Flash floods are especially intense across the Mediterranean zone, where rainfall accumulations exceeding 500 mm within a few hours may be observed. Despite this state of facts, the study of extremes in hydrology has essentially gone unexplored until the recent past, with the exception of some rare factual reports on individual flood events, with the sporadic inclusion of isolated estimated peak discharges. Floods of extraordinary magnitude are in fact hardly ever captured by existing standard measurement networks, either because they are too heavily concentrated in space and time or because their discharges greatly exceed the design and calibration ranges of the measurement devices employed (stream gauges). This situation has gradually evolved over the last decade for two main reasons. First, the expansion and densification of weather radar networks, combined with improved radar quantitative precipitation estimates, now provide ready access to rainfall measurements at spatial and temporal scales that, while not perfectly accurate, are compatible with the study of extreme events. Heavy rainfall events no longer fail to be recorded by existing rain gauge and radar networks. Second, pioneering research efforts on extreme floods, based on precise post-flood surveys, have helped overcome the limitations imposed by a small base of available direct measured data. This activity has already yielded significant progress in expanding the knowledge and understanding of extreme flash floods. This presentation will provide a review of the recent research progresses in the area of flash flood studies, mainly based on the outcomes of the European research projects FLOODsite, HYDRATE and Hymex. It will show how intensive collation of field data helped better define the possible magnitudes of flood volumes and discharges during flash floods, their spatial distribution and rates of occurrence, as well as the factors that control the hydrological response of watersheds to heavy rainfalls explaining the large spatial variability in flood hazard. Developments in the fields of flood frequency analyses and flood forecasting based on the recently acquired data or adapted for the valuation of this specific data will also be presented. The presentation will end suggesting some perspectives for future research activities on flash floods.

Natural and Human Impacts on the Coastal Environment of Taiwan Recorded in Marine Sediments During the last century

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, H.; Chen, Z.; Huh, C.; Chen, K.; Lin, Y.; Hsu, F.

2012-12-01

Located at tropical-to-subtropical region on the Pacific rim, Taiwan has very high erosion rate due to steep topography and heavy rainfall especially typhoons. The high sedimentation rates in Taiwan Strait allow us to retrieve high-resolution marine records which reveal natural changes and human impacts on the coastal environment of Taiwan over the past 100 years. Five gravity and box cores well dated by 210Pb and 137Cs methods were analyzed for elemental concentrations in the acid-leachable phase, total organic carbon (TOC), δ13CTOC, δ13C and δ18O of carbonates. The results show that: (1) Positive correlation between TOC and typhoon rainfall since 1940 indicate that decline of vegetation coverage resulted in intensification of soil erosion. The δ13CTOC values illustrate that the organic carbon in the sediments was originated mainly from land input. (2) The δ18O difference between foraminiferal shells and carbonate grains can be used for rainfall reconstruction. (3) The Ca concentrations mainly from carbonates in the sediments were decreased since AD 1940, reflecting changes in sedimentary source and ocean acidfication. As development of the land use, more and more soil erosion caused depletion of authigenic marine sediments in the coast region. Ocean acidification led to less carbonate formation in seawater. (4) Since 1920, Pb concentration rapidly increased and peaked at ~1970 as Pb input from gasoline usage. Pb concentration dropped from 1970 to 1975 perhaps due to unleaded gasoline replacement. (5) In the nearshore environment, heavy metals such as Mn, Cu and Pb in the acid-leachable phase of the sediments strongly increased from 1950 to 1965 then kept relatively high level, reflecting heavy metal contamination from industrial source. The human impact on the coastal region of Taiwan not only caused changes in marine sediments and ocean water, but also disturbed the marine ecosystem. This study has been funded by NSC-100-3113-E-002-009: Study of CO2 capture, conversion, storage and reuse through the coastal ocean of Taiwan: The biological pump.

High-frequency promoter firing links THO complex function to heavy chromatin formation.

PubMed

Mouaikel, John; Causse, Sébastien Z; Rougemaille, Mathieu; Daubenton-Carafa, Yves; Blugeon, Corinne; Lemoine, Sophie; Devaux, Frédéric; Darzacq, Xavier; Libri, Domenico

2013-11-27

The THO complex is involved in transcription, genome stability, and messenger ribonucleoprotein (mRNP) formation, but its precise molecular function remains enigmatic. Under heat shock conditions, THO mutants accumulate large protein-DNA complexes that alter the chromatin density of target genes (heavy chromatin), defining a specific biochemical facet of THO function and a powerful tool of analysis. Here, we show that heavy chromatin distribution is dictated by gene boundaries and that the gene promoter is necessary and sufficient to convey THO sensitivity in these conditions. Single-molecule fluorescence in situ hybridization measurements show that heavy chromatin formation correlates with an unusually high firing pace of the promoter with more than 20 transcription events per minute. Heavy chromatin formation closely follows the modulation of promoter firing and strongly correlates with polymerase occupancy genome wide. We propose that the THO complex is required for tuning the dynamic of gene-nuclear pore association and mRNP release to the same high pace of transcription initiation. Copyright © 2013 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Emergence of superconductivity in heavy-electron materials

PubMed Central

Yang, Yi-feng; Pines, David

2014-01-01

Although the pairing glue for the attractive quasiparticle interaction responsible for unconventional superconductivity in heavy-electron materials has been identified as the spin fluctuations that arise from their proximity to a magnetic quantum critical point, there has been no model to describe their superconducting transition at temperature Tc that is comparable to that found by Bardeen, Cooper, and Schrieffer (BCS) for conventional superconductors, where phonons provide the pairing glue. Here we propose such a model: a phenomenological BCS-like expression for Tc in heavy-electron materials that is based on a simple model for the effective range and strength of the spin-fluctuation-induced quasiparticle interaction and reflects the unusual properties of the heavy-electron normal state from which superconductivity emerges. We show that it provides a quantitative understanding of the pressure-induced variation of Tc in the “hydrogen atoms” of unconventional superconductivity, CeCoIn5 and CeRhIn5, predicts scaling behavior and a dome-like structure for Tc in all heavy-electron quantum critical superconductors, provides unexpected connections between members of this family, and quantifies their variations in Tc with a single parameter. PMID:25489102

Highway runoff quality in Ireland.

PubMed

Berhanu Desta, Mesfin; Bruen, Michael; Higgins, Neil; Johnston, Paul

2007-04-01

Highway runoff has been identified as a significant source of contaminants that impact on the receiving aquatic environment. Several studies have been completed documenting the characteristics of highway runoff and its implication to the receiving water in the UK and elsewhere. However, very little information is available for Ireland. The objective of this study was to determine the quality of highway runoff from major Irish roads under the current road drainage design and maintenance practice. Four sites were selected from the M4 and the M7 motorways outside Dublin. Automatic samplers and continuous monitoring devices were deployed to sample and monitor the runoff quality and quantity. More than 42 storm events were sampled and analysed for the heavy metals Cd, Cu, Pb, and Zn, 16 US EPA specified PAHs, volatile organic compounds including MTBE, and a number of conventional pollutants. All samples were analysed based on the Standard Methods. Significant quantities of solids and heavy metals were detected at all sites. PAHs were not detected very often, but when detected the values were different from quantities observed in UK highways. The heavy metal concentrations were strongly related to the total suspended solids concentrations, which has a useful implication for runoff management strategies. No strong relationship was discovered between pollutant concentrations and event characteristics such as rainfall intensity, antecedent dry days (ADD), or rainfall depth (volume). This study has demonstrated that runoff from Irish motorways was not any cleaner than in the UK although the traffic volume at the monitored sites was relatively smaller. This calls for a site specific investigation of highway runoff quality before adopting a given management strategy.

Identification of anomalous motion of thunderstorms using daily rainfall fields

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Moral, Anna del; Llasat, María del Carmen; Rigo, Tomeu

2017-03-01

Most of the adverse weather phenomena in Catalonia (northeast Iberian Peninsula) are caused by convective events, which can produce heavy rains, large hailstones, strong winds, lightning and/or tornadoes. These thunderstorms usually have marked paths. However, their trajectories can vary sharply at any given time, completely changing direction from the path they have previously followed. Furthermore, some thunderstorms split or merge with each other, creating new formations with different behaviour. In order to identify the potentially anomalous movements that some thunderstorms make, this paper presents a two-step methodology using a database with 8 years of daily rainfall fields data for the Catalonia region (2008-2015). First, it classifies daily rainfall fields between days with "no rain", "non-potentially convective rain" and "potentially convective rain", based on daily accumulated precipitation and extension thresholds. Second, it categorises convective structures within rainfall fields and briefly identifies their main features, distinguishing whether there were any anomalous thunderstorm movements in each case. This methodology has been applied to the 2008-2015 period, and the main climatic features of convective and non-convective days were obtained. The methodology can be exported to other regions that do not have the necessary radar-based algorithms to detect convective cells, but where there is a good rain gauge network in place.

Thermodynamic sensitivities in observed and simulated extreme-rain-producing mesoscale convective systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schumacher, R. S.; Peters, J. M.

2015-12-01

Mesoscale convective systems (MCSs) are responsible for a large fraction of warm-season extreme rainfall events over the continental United States, as well as other midlatitude regions globally. The rainfall production in these MCSs is determined by numerous factors, including the large-scale forcing for ascent, the organization of the convection, cloud microphysical processes, and the surrounding thermodynamic and kinematic environment. Furthermore, heavy-rain-producing MCSs are most common at night, which means that well-studied mechanisms for MCS maintenance and organization such as cold pools (gravity currents) are not always at work. In this study, we use numerical model simulations and recent field observations to investigate the sensitivity of low-level MCS structures, and their influences on rainfall, to the details of the thermodynamic environment. In particular, small alterations to the initial conditions in idealized and semi-idealized simulations result in comparatively large precipitation changes, both in terms of the intensity and the spatial distribution. The uncertainties in the thermodynamic enviroments in the model simulations will be compared with high-resolution observations from the Plains Elevated Convection At Night (PECAN) field experiment in 2015. The results have implications for the paradigms of "surface-based" versus "elevated" convection, as well as for the predictability of warm-season convective rainfall.

Borneo vortex and meso-scale convective rainfall

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Koseki, S.; Koh, T.-Y.; Teo, C.-K.

2013-08-01

We have investigated how the Borneo vortex develops over the equatorial South China Sea under cold surge conditions in December during the Asian winter monsoon. Composite analysis using reanalysis and satellite datasets has revealed that absolute vorticity and water vapour are transported by strong cold surges from upstream of the South China Sea to around the equator. Rainfall is correspondingly enhanced over the equatorial South China Sea. A semi-idealized experiment reproduced the Borneo vortex over the equatorial South China Sea during a "perpetual" cold surge. The Borneo vortex is manifested as a meso-α cyclone with a comma-shaped rainband in the northeast sector of the cyclone. Vorticity budget analysis showed that the growth of the meso-α cyclone was achieved mainly by vortex stretching. The comma-shaped rainband consists of clusters of meso-β scale rainfall patches. The warm and wet cyclonic southeasterly flow meets with the cold and dry northeasterly surge forming a confluence front in the northeastern sector of the cyclone. Intense upward motion and heavy rainfall result both due to the low-level convergence and the favourable thermodynamic profile at the confluence front. At both meso-α and meso-β scales, the convergence is ultimately caused by the deviatoric strain in the confluence wind pattern but is much enhanced by nonlinear self-enhancement dynamics.

Study of the Formation and Evolution of Precipitation Induced Sea Surface Salinity Minima in the Tropical Pacific Using HYCOM

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gallagher, R. L.

2016-02-01

During heavy rain events in the tropics, areas of relatively low salinity water collect on the ocean surface. Rainfall events increase the buoyancy of the ocean surface and impact upper ocean salinity and temperature profiles. This resists downward mixing and as a result can persist (SPURS II planning group, 2012; Oceanography 28(1) 150-159). Salinity at the surface adjusts through advective and diffusive mixing processes (Scott, J. et al, 2013; AGU Fall meeting abstracts). This project investigates the upper ocean salinity response in both advection and diffusion dominated regions. The changes in ocean surface salinity are tracked before, during, and after rainfall events. Data from a standard oceanographic model, HYCOM, are used to identify areas where each surface process is significant. Rainfall events are identified using a TRMM dataset. It provides a tropical rainfall analysis which uses amalgamated satellite data to develop detailed global precipitation grids between 50 o north and south latitude. TRMM is useful due its high temporal and spatial resolutions. The salinity response in HYCOM is tested against simple theoretical advective and diffusive mixing models. The magnitude of sea surface salinity minima, their persistence and the precision by which HYCOM can resolve these phenomena are of interest.

Radar-based Quantitative Precipitation Forecasting using Spatial-scale Decomposition Method for Urban Flood Management

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yoon, S.; Lee, B.; Nakakita, E.; Lee, G.

2016-12-01

Recent climate changes and abnormal weather phenomena have resulted in increased occurrences of localized torrential rainfall. Urban areas in Korea have suffered from localized heavy rainfall, including the notable Seoul flood disaster in 2010 and 2011. The urban hydrological environment has changed in relation to precipitation, such as reduced concentration time, a decreased storage rate, and increased peak discharge. These changes have altered and accelerated the severity of damage to urban areas. In order to prevent such urban flash flood damages, we have to secure the lead time for evacuation through the improvement of radar-based quantitative precipitation forecasting (QPF). The purpose of this research is to improve the QPF products using spatial-scale decomposition method for considering the life time of storm and to assess the accuracy between traditional QPF method and proposed method in terms of urban flood management. The layout of this research is as below. First, this research applies the image filtering to separate the spatial-scale of rainfall field. Second, the separated small and large-scale rainfall fields are extrapolated by each different forecasting method. Third, forecasted rainfall fields are combined at each lead time. Finally, results of this method are evaluated and compared with the results of uniform advection model for urban flood modeling. It is expected that urban flood information using improved QPF will help to reduce casualties and property damage caused by urban flooding through this research.

Changing circulation structure and precipitation characteristics in Asian monsoon regions: greenhouse warming vs. aerosol effects

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Lau, William K. M.; Kim, Kyu-Myong; Ruby Leung, L.

Using model outputs from CMIP5 historical integrations, we have investigated the relative roles of anthropogenic emissions of greenhouse gases (GHG) and aerosols in changing the characteristics of the large-scale circulation and rainfall in Asian summer monsoon (ASM) regions. Under GHG warming, a strong positive trend in low-level moist static energy (MSE) is found over ASM regions, associated with increasing large-scale land–sea thermal contrast from 1870s to present. During the same period, a mid-tropospheric convective barrier (MCB) due to widespread reduction in relative humidity in the mid- and lower troposphere is strengthening over the ASM regions, in conjunction with expanding areasmore » of anomalous subsidence associated with the Deep Tropical Squeeze (Lau and Kim in Proc Natl Acad Sci 12:3630–3635, 2015). The opposing effects of MSE and MCB lead to enhanced total ASM rainfall, but only a partial strengthening of the southern portion of the monsoon meridional circulation, coupled to anomalous multi-cellular overturning motions over ASM land. Including anthropogenic aerosol emissions strongly masks MSE but enhances MCB via increased stability in the lower troposphere, resulting in an overall weakened ASM circulation with suppressed rainfall. Analyses of rainfall characteristics indicate that under GHG, overall precipitation efficiency over the ASM region is reduced, manifesting in less moderate but more extreme heavy rain events. Under combined effects of GHG and aerosols, precipitation efficiency is unchanged, with more moderate, but less extreme rainfall.« less

A web-based Tamsui River flood early-warning system with correction of real-time water stage using monitoring data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liao, H. Y.; Lin, Y. J.; Chang, H. K.; Shang, R. K.; Kuo, H. C.; Lai, J. S.; Tan, Y. C.

2017-12-01

Taiwan encounters heavy rainfalls frequently. There are three to four typhoons striking Taiwan every year. To provide lead time for reducing flood damage, this study attempt to build a flood early-warning system (FEWS) in Tanshui River using time series correction techniques. The predicted rainfall is used as the input for the rainfall-runoff model. Then, the discharges calculated by the rainfall-runoff model is converted to the 1-D river routing model. The 1-D river routing model will output the simulating water stages in 487 cross sections for the future 48-hr. The downstream water stage at the estuary in 1-D river routing model is provided by storm surge simulation. Next, the water stages of 487 cross sections are corrected by time series model such as autoregressive (AR) model using real-time water stage measurements to improve the predicted accuracy. The results of simulated water stages are displayed on a web-based platform. In addition, the models can be performed remotely by any users with web browsers through a user interface. The on-line video surveillance images, real-time monitoring water stages, and rainfalls can also be shown on this platform. If the simulated water stage exceeds the embankments of Tanshui River, the alerting lights of FEWS will be flashing on the screen. This platform runs periodically and automatically to generate the simulation graphic data of flood water stages for flood disaster prevention and decision making.

Changing circulation structure and precipitation characteristics in Asian monsoon regions: greenhouse warming vs. aerosol effects

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lau, William K. M.; Kim, Kyu-Myong; Ruby Leung, L.

2017-12-01

Using model outputs from CMIP5 historical integrations, we have investigated the relative roles of anthropogenic emissions of greenhouse gases (GHG) and aerosols in changing the characteristics of the large-scale circulation and rainfall in Asian summer monsoon (ASM) regions. Under GHG warming, a strong positive trend in low-level moist static energy (MSE) is found over ASM regions, associated with increasing large-scale land-sea thermal contrast from 1870s to present. During the same period, a mid-tropospheric convective barrier (MCB) due to widespread reduction in relative humidity in the mid- and lower troposphere is strengthening over the ASM regions, in conjunction with expanding areas of anomalous subsidence associated with the Deep Tropical Squeeze (Lau and Kim in Proc Natl Acad Sci 12:3630-3635, 2015). The opposing effects of MSE and MCB lead to enhanced total ASM rainfall, but only a partial strengthening of the southern portion of the monsoon meridional circulation, coupled to anomalous multi-cellular overturning motions over ASM land. Including anthropogenic aerosol emissions strongly masks MSE but enhances MCB via increased stability in the lower troposphere, resulting in an overall weakened ASM circulation with suppressed rainfall. Analyses of rainfall characteristics indicate that under GHG, overall precipitation efficiency over the ASM region is reduced, manifesting in less moderate but more extreme heavy rain events. Under combined effects of GHG and aerosols, precipitation efficiency is unchanged, with more moderate, but less extreme rainfall.

Impacts of northern Tibetan Plateau on East Asian summer rainfall via modulating midlatitude transient eddies

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Deng, Jiechun; Xu, Haiming; Shi, Ning; Zhang, Leying; Ma, Jing

2017-08-01

Roles of the Tibetan Plateau (TP) in forming and changing the seasonal Asian climate system have been widely explored. However, little is known about modulation effects of the TP on extratropical transient eddies (TEs) and subsequent synoptic responses of the East Asian rainfall. In this study, the Community Atmosphere Model version 5.1 coupled with a slab ocean model is employed to highlight the important role of the TP in regulating the upper-tropospheric transient wave train. Comparison between sensitivity experiments with and without the TP shows that the northern TP excites a strong anomalous anticyclone, which shifts the upper-level East Asian westerly jet northward and helps transfer barotropic and baroclinic energy from the mean flow to the synoptic TE flow. The transient wave train is primarily shifted northward by northern TP and is forced to propagate southeastward along the eastern flank of the TP until reaching eastern China. Before the strengthening of monsoonal southerlies, the TP-modulated transient wave train cools the troposphere, which decreases the static stability over northern China. Meanwhile, the associated anomalous warm advection induces ascending motion, leading to excessive rainfall by releasing unstable energy as the southerly strengthens. Due to the southeastward propagation of the wave train, anomalous heavy rainfall subsequently appears over eastern China from north to south, which increases day-to-day rainfall variation in this region. Additionally, occurrence of this upper-tropospheric transient wave train associated with low-level southerly peak is substantially increased by northern TP.

Homemade Heavy Caliber Rifles-Two Unusual Firearms.

PubMed

Yalçın Sarıbey, Aylin; Hannam, Abigail Grace

2016-05-01

Historically, in crimes involving heavy caliber rifles, only conventional factory-made versions have been used. However, in recent years the number of homemade long-barreled rifles is increasing. The characteristics of two such firearms that have been submitted to the Turkish Criminal Laboratory are discussed here. When the main parts of the guns were examined in detail, it was noted that nearly all of the parts had been made carelessly, with several structural defects visible. It was determined that the homemade heavy caliber rifles were unfit for efficient use and it was possible that they could have seriously harmed the shooter had they been fired. The development of these kinds of gun and the possibility of their use spreading throughout the country in terrorist attacks could cause a serious threat to national security. © 2015 American Academy of Forensic Sciences.

Effects of soil type and rainfall intensity on sheet erosion processes and sediment characteristics along the climatic gradient in central-south China.

PubMed

Wu, Xinliang; Wei, Yujie; Wang, Junguang; Xia, Jinwen; Cai, Chongfa; Wei, Zhiyuan

2018-04-15

Soil erosion poses a major threat to the sustainability of natural ecosystems. The main objective of this study was to investigate the effects of soil type and rainfall intensity on sheet erosion processes (hydrological, erosional processes and sediment characteristics) from temperate to tropical climate. Field plot experiments were conducted under pre-wetted bare fallow condition for five soil types (two Luvisols, an Alisol, an Acrisol and a Ferralsol) with heavy textures (silty clay loam, silty clay and clay) derived separately from loess deposits, quaternary red clays and basalt in central-south China. Rainfall simulations were performed at two rainfall intensities (45 and 90mmh -1 ) and lasted one hour after runoff generation. Runoff coefficient, sediment concentration, sediment yield rate and sediment effective size distribution were determined at 3-min intervals. Runoff temporal variations were similar at the high rainfall intensity, but exhibited a remarkable difference at the low rainfall intensity among soil types except for tropical Ferralsol. Illite was positively correlated with runoff coefficient (p<0.05). Rainfall intensity significantly contributed to the erosional process (p<0.001). Sediment concentration and yield rate were the smallest for the tropical Ferralsol and sediment concentration was the largest for the temperate Luvisol. The regimes (transport and detachment) limiting erosion varied under the interaction of rainfall characteristics (intensity and duration) and soil types, with amorphous iron oxides and bulk density jointly enhancing soil resistance to erosive forces (Adj-R 2 >88%, p<0.001). Sediment size was dominated by <0.1mm size fraction for the Luvisols and bimodally distributed with the peaks at <0.1mm and 1-0.5mm size for the other soil types. Exchangeable sodium decreased sediment size while rainfall intensity and clay content increased it (Adj-R 2 =96%, p<0.01). These results allow to better understand the climate effect on erosion processes at the spatial-temporal scale from the perspective of soil properties. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Geochemical and stable isotope characteristics of urban heavy rain in the downtown of Tokyo, Japan

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Uchiyama, Ryunosuke; Okochi, Hiroshi; Ogata, Hiroko; Katsumi, Naoya; Asai, Daisuke; Nakano, Takanori

2017-09-01

In order to make clear the impact of air pollution on the formation of sudden and locally-distributed heavy rain in urban area (hereafter Urban Heavy Rain: UHR), we analyzed inorganic ion concentration and stable isotope ratio of water (δD and δ18O) in rainwater. Rainwater samples were collected in Shinjuku, which is a representative downtown of Tokyo, Japan, during four years from October 2012 to December 2015. The concentration and wet deposition fluxes of acidic components (H+, NH4+, NO3-, and nss-SO42 -) in UHR were especially higher than those in other types of rain events, i.e. normal rain, typhoon heavy rain, and frontal heavy rain. UHR had distinctly lower stable isotope ratios than those in other urban rains with same rainfall amount and summer precipitation systems. There was a high negative correlation between δ18O and the distances from the sampling point to the formation area of UHR within 10 km, while there were high positive correlations between δ18O and the concentration of acidic components in UHR. These findings indicate that UHR could effectively scavenge acidic substances within cloud and suggest the use of stable isotope ratios as tracers of an urban heavy rain's water and in-cloud scavenging process.

Modeling the Large-scale Environments of Long-lived Mesoscale Convective Systems Conducive to Heavy Precipitation in the Central United States

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Leung, L. R.; Houze, R.; Feng, Z.; Yang, Q.

2017-12-01

Mesoscale convective systems (MCSs) are important precipitation producers that account for 30-70% of warm season rainfall between the Rocky Mountains and Mississippi River and some 50-60% of tropical rainfall. Besides the tendency to produce floods, MCSs also carry with them a variety of attendant severe weather phenomena. Our recent analysis found that observed increases in springtime total and extreme rainfall in the central United States in the past 35 years are dominated by increased frequency and intensity of long-lasting MCSs. Understanding the environmental conditions producing long-lived MCSs is therefore a priority in determining how heavy precipitation events might change in character and location in a changing climate. Continental-scale convection-permitting simulations of the warm seasons using the WRF model reproduce realistic structure and frequency distribution of lifetime and event mean precipitation of MCSs over the central United States. The simulations show that MCSs systematically form over the central Great Plains ahead of a trough in the westerlies in combination with an enhanced low-level moist jet from the Gulf of Mexico. These environmental properties at the time of storm initiation are most prominent for the MCSs that persist for the longest times. MCSs reaching lifetimes of 9 h or more occur closer to the approaching trough than shorter-lived MCSs. These long-lived MCSs exhibit the strongest feedback to the environment through diabatic heating in the trailing regions of the MCSs that helps to maintain them over a long period of time. The identified large-scale and mesoscale ingredients provide a framework for understanding and modeling the potential changes in MCSs and associated hydrometeorological extremes in the future.

Characteristics of radiocesium runoff between five river basins near to the Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Plant over heavy rainfall events

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sakuma, Kazuyuki; Malins, Alex; Kurikami, Hiroshi; Kitamura, Akihiro

2017-04-01

Due to the Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Plant accident triggered by the earthquake and subsequent tsunami on 11 March 2011, many radionuclides were released into environments such as forests, rivers, dam reservoirs, and the ocean. 137Cs is one of the most important radio-contaminants. In order to investigate 137Cs transport and discharge from contaminated basins, in this study we developed a three dimensional model of five river basins near to the Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Plant. We applied the General-purpose Terrestrial fluid-Flow Simulator (GETFLOWS) watershed code to the Odaka, Ukedo, Maeda, Kuma, and Tomioka River basins. The main land uses in these areas are forests, rice paddy fields, crop fields and urban. The Ukedo, Kuma and Tomioka Rivers have relatively large dam reservoirs (>106 m3) in the upper basins. The radiocesium distribution was initiated based on the Second Airborne Monitoring Survey. The simulation periods were 2011 Typhoon Roke, nine heavy rainfall events in 2013, Typhoons Man-yi and Wipha, and tropical storm Etau in 2015. Water, sediment, and radiocesium discharge from the basins was calculated for these events. The characteristics of 137Cs runoff between the different basins were evaluated in terms of land use, the effect of dam reservoirs, geology, and the fraction of the initial radiocesium inventory discharged. The absolute 137Cs discharge from the Ukedo River basin was highest, however the 137Cs discharge ratio was lowest due to the Ogaki Dam and the inventory being mainly concentrated in upstream forests. The results for the water, suspended sediment and radiocesium discharge as a function of total precipitation over the various rainfall events can be used to predict discharges for other typhoons.

Vegetation Response and Landscape Dynamics of Indian Summer Monsoon Variations during Holocene: An Eco-Geomorphological Appraisal of Tropical Evergreen Forest Subfossil Logs

PubMed Central

Kumaran, Navnith K. P.; Padmalal, Damodaran; Nair, Madhavan K.; Limaye, Ruta B.; Guleria, Jaswant S.; Srivastava, Rashmi; Shukla, Anumeha

2014-01-01

The high rainfall and low sea level during Early Holocene had a significant impact on the development and sustenance of dense forest and swamp-marsh cover along the southwest coast of India. This heavy rainfall flooded the coastal plains, forest flourishing in the abandoned river channels and other low-lying areas in midland.The coastline and other areas in lowland of southwestern India supply sufficient evidence of tree trunks of wet evergreen forests getting buried during the Holocene period under varying thickness of clay, silty-clay and even in sand sequences. This preserved subfossil log assemblage forms an excellent proxy for eco-geomorphological and palaeoclimate appraisal reported hitherto from Indian subcontinent, and complements the available palynological data. The bulk of the subfossil logs and partially carbonized wood remains have yielded age prior to the Holocene transgression of 6.5 k yrs BP, suggesting therein that flooding due to heavy rainfall drowned the forest cover, even extending to parts of the present shelf. These preserved logs represent a unique palaeoenvironmental database as they contain observable cellular structure. Some of them can even be compared to modern analogues. As these woods belong to the Late Pleistocene and Holocene, they form a valuable source of climate data that alleviates the lack of contemporaneous meteorological records. These palaeoforests along with pollen proxies depict the warmer environment in this region, which is consistent with a Mid Holocene Thermal Maximum often referred to as Holocene Climate Optimum. Thus, the subfossil logs of tropical evergreen forests constitute new indices of Asian palaeomonsoon, while their occurrence and preservation are attributed to eco-geomorphology and hydrological regimes associated with the intensified Asian Summer Monsoon, as recorded elsewhere. PMID:24727672

Analysis and hindcast simulations of an extreme rainfall event in the Mediterranean area: The Genoa 2011 case

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fiori, E.; Comellas, A.; Molini, L.; Rebora, N.; Siccardi, F.; Gochis, D. J.; Tanelli, S.; Parodi, A.

2014-03-01

The city of Genoa, which places between the Tyrrhenian Sea and the Apennine mountains (Liguria, Italy) was rocked by severe flash floods on the 4th of November, 2011. Nearly 500 mm of rain, a third of the average annual rainfall, fell in six hours. Six people perished and millions of Euros in damages occurred. The synoptic-scale meteorological system moved across the Atlantic Ocean and into the Mediterranean generating floods that killed 5 people in Southern France, before moving over the Ligurian Sea and Genoa producing the extreme event studied here. Cloud-permitting simulations (1 km) of the finger-like convective system responsible for the torrential event over Genoa have been performed using Advanced Research Weather and Forecasting Model (ARW-WRF, version 3.3). Two different microphysics (WSM6 and Thompson) as well as three different convection closures (explicit, Kain-Fritsch, and Betts-Miller-Janjic) were evaluated to gain a deeper understanding of the physical processes underlying the observed heavy rain event and the model's capability to predict, in hindcast mode, its structure and evolution. The impact of forecast initialization and of model vertical discretization on hindcast results is also examined. Comparison between model hindcasts and observed fields provided by raingauge data, satellite data, and radar data show that this particular event is strongly sensitive to the details of the mesoscale initialization despite being evolved from a relatively large scale weather system. Only meso-γ details of the event were not well captured by the best setting of the ARW-WRF model and so peak hourly rainfalls were not exceptionally well reproduced. The results also show that specification of microphysical parameters suitable to these events have a positive impact on the prediction of heavy precipitation intensity values.

Dynamics of intense rainfalls in the southern half of European Russia for the period 1960-2015

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chizhikova, N.

2018-01-01

Two time periods (1960-1986 and 1986-2015) were compared in terms of mean annual frequency and mean annual sum of warm season rainfalls to quantify general trends in the changing regime of heavy precipitation over the southern part of European Russia, which is the area of the most intensive agricultural activity. The identified trends were compared with the published assessment of the intensity trends of soil erosion processes. The prevalence of the increasing tendency in the frequency and amount of precipitation is demonstrated, which undergoes against a decrease in the rate of eroded sediment accumulation and against a decrease of linear growth rate of gullies. This result rather proves the crucial contribution of the snowmelt to the soil erosion over the studied area.

Using Smart Planning to Mitigate Drought in Urban Areas: A Seasonal Simulation of the Impact of Urbanization on Precipitation in the Indianapolis Region

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schmid, P. E.; Niyogi, D.

2012-12-01

The Indianapolis region exhibits a precipitation distribution indicative of urban weather modification: negative bias upwind and positive bias downwind. The causes for such a distribution within an urban area arise from a combination of land-surface heterogeneity and urban aerosol-cloud interaction. This study investigates the causes of the precipitation distribution with a 120-day simulation using the Regional Atmospheric Modeling System (RAMS) coupled with the Town Energy Budget (TEB) model. Using a nested grid with a maximum resolution of 500m, a seasonal simulation of May through August, 2008 is conducted. Land surface conditions are varied, removing, expanding, and intensifying the Indianapolis urban area. Aerosol conditions are scaled by a three-dimensional combination of MODIS and CALIPSO observations, and varied in concentration and plume extent. Results from the study demonstrate the paradigm of urban precipitation modification on a seasonal time scale. The boundary between the rural and urban land surfaces weakens approaching systems upwind, decreasing precipitation in the city center. A larger urban extent diminishes the systems further. The aerosol plume downwind increases cloud lifetimes via cloud-nucleating aerosol, then invigorates precipitation via large drizzle-invigorating aerosols. The overall effect reproduces the observed negative precipitation bias upwind and positive bias downwind of the urban center. A lower concentration of aerosols leads to a higher proportion of stratiform rain over a larger area, whereas a higher concentration of aerosols leads to more convective rain and heavy rain events. This manifests in a weekly cycle of precipitation with rain most likely on weekends, and with less frequent but heavier rain events most likely during midweek, when aerosol concentrations are the highest. More intense urbanization, via both land surface and aerosol effects, creates more frequent heavy rainfall events and exacerbates dry-periods, potentially leading to premature drought onset. The wetter than average May, June, and July received more total rainfall from the heavy rainfall events, while the dry August became drier due to lack of stratiform precipitation. Smart planning solutions can partially mitigate the urban precipitation problem. In a simulation where a more intense urban Indianapolis is surrounded by a greenbelt and green roofs are implemented in the city, the urban precipitation bias becomes less significant. Upwind, the greenbelt provides surface moisture and mitigates how much precipitation systems weaken. Downwind, the greenbelt slows the transport of drizzle-invigorating aerosol, reducing the heavy rain events. The green roofs reduce the urban-rural gradient and slow the initial weakening of systems.

Comparison Between GOES-12 Overshooting-Top Detections, WSR-88D Radar Reflectivity, and Severe Storm Reports

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Dworak, Richard; Bedka, Kristopher; Brunner, Jason; Feltz, Wayne

2012-01-01

Studies have found that convective storms with overshooting-top (OT) signatures in weather satellite imagery are often associated with hazardous weather, such as heavy rainfall, tornadoes, damaging winds, and large hail. An objective satellite-based OT detection product has been developed using 11-micrometer infrared window (IRW) channel brightness temperatures (BTs) for the upcoming R series of the Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite (GOES-R) Advanced Baseline Imager. In this study, this method is applied to GOES-12 IRW data and the OT detections are compared with radar data, severe storm reports, and severe weather warnings over the eastern United States. The goals of this study are to 1) improve forecaster understanding of satellite OT signatures relative to commonly available radar products, 2) assess OT detection product accuracy, and 3) evaluate the utility of an OT detection product for diagnosing hazardous convective storms. The coevolution of radar-derived products and satellite OT signatures indicates that an OT often corresponds with the highest radar echo top and reflectivity maximum aloft. Validation of OT detections relative to composite reflectivity indicates an algorithm false-alarm ratio of 16%, with OTs within the coldest IRW BT range (less than 200 K) being the most accurate. A significant IRW BT minimum typically present with an OT is more often associated with heavy precipitation than a region with a spatially uniform BT. Severe weather was often associated with OT detections during the warm season (April September) and over the southern United States. The severe weather to OT relationship increased by 15% when GOES operated in rapid-scan mode, showing the importance of high temporal resolution for observing and detecting rapidly evolving cloud-top features. Comparison of the earliest OT detection associated with a severe weather report showed that 75% of the cases occur before severe weather and that 42% of collocated severe weather reports had either an OT detected before a severe weather warning or no warning issued at all. The relationships between satellite OT signatures, severe weather, and heavy rainfall shown in this paper suggest that 1) when an OT is detected, the particular storm is likely producing heavy rainfall and/or possibly severe weather; 2) an objective OT detection product can be used to increase situational awareness and forecaster confidence that a given storm is severe; and 3) this product may be particularly useful in regions with insufficient radar coverage.

Effects of rainfall exclusion on leaf gas exchange traits and osmotic adjustment in mature canopy trees of Dryobalanops aromatica (Dipterocarpaceae) in a Malaysian tropical rain forest.

PubMed

Inoue, Yuta; Ichie, Tomoaki; Kenzo, Tanaka; Yoneyama, Aogu; Kumagai, Tomo'omi; Nakashizuka, Tohru

2017-10-01

Climate change exposes vegetation to unusual levels of drought, risking a decline in productivity and an increase in mortality. It still remains unclear how trees and forests respond to such unusual drought, particularly Southeast Asian tropical rain forests. To understand leaf ecophysiological responses of tropical rain forest trees to soil drying, a rainfall exclusion experiment was conducted on mature canopy trees of Dryobalanops aromatica Gaertn.f. (Dipterocarpaceae) for 4 months in an aseasonal tropical rain forest in Sarawak, Malaysia. The rainfall was intercepted by using a soft vinyl chloride sheet. We compared the three control and three treatment trees with respect to leaf water use at the top of the crown, including stomatal conductance (gsmax), photosynthesis (Amax), leaf water potential (predawn: Ψpre; midday: Ψmid), leaf water potential at turgor loss point (πtlp), osmotic potential at full turgor (π100) and a bulk modulus of elasticity (ε). Measurements were taken using tree-tower and canopy-crane systems. During the experiment, the treatment trees suffered drought stress without evidence of canopy dieback in comparison with the control trees; e.g., Ψpre and Ψmid decreased with soil drying. Minimum values of Ψmid in the treatment trees decreased during the experiment, and were lower than πtlp in the control trees. However, the treatment trees also decreased their πtlp by osmotic adjustment, and the values were lower than the minimum values of their Ψmid. In addition, the treatment trees maintained gs and Amax especially in the morning, though at midday, values decreased to half those of the control trees. Decreasing leaf water potential by osmotic adjustment to maintain gs and Amax under soil drying in treatment trees was considered to represent anisohydric behavior. These results suggest that D. aromatica may have high leaf adaptability to drought by regulating leaf water consumption and maintaining turgor pressure to improve its leaf water relations. © The Author 2017. Published by Oxford University Press. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please email: journals.permissions@oup.com.

Responses of Forest Vegetation to Unusual Drought in Wet Forest in Eastern Puerto Rico: A "Dry Run" for Climate Change?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zimmerman, J. K.; Hogan, J. A.; Rifkin, S.; Stankavitch, S.

2016-12-01

Droughts occur rarely in wet tropical forests but are predicted to become more frequent under modeled global climate change scenarios. 2015 was unusually dry in northeastern Puerto Rico, resulting from one of the strongest recorded El Niño events in history. We used these long-term measurements to characterize the ecosystem responses to drought focusing on vegetation responses by contrasting the observed patterns from 2015 with patterns from previous decades. Rainfall was measured at El Verde Field Station (EVFS; 350 masl); stream flow was gauged in the nearby Quebrada Sonadora ( 400 m masl), and litterfall was collected in 3 replicate 0.09 ha plots located between 350 - 500 masl ( 1 km from EVFS). Reproductive phenology (120 flower/seed traps) and tree diameter growth (from the 1000 largest trees) were monitored in the 16-ha Luquillo Forest Dynamics Plot (LFDP; 333-428 masl and 0.5-1 km from EVFS). During all of 2015, rainfall was approximately 50% of normal. Departure from the 40-year average of cumulative rainfall was evident by April. Stream flows were well below 25-year average levels by early May and this departure was evident through early November. Litter fall exhibited a strong peak in mid-May followed by reduced inputs until early September, when Tropical Storm Erika brought down additional litter. The peak was 3.5-fold greater than the 12-yr average for May and was associated with large numbers of aborted fruits in seed/flower traps. Diameter increments of trees in the LFDP were 30% reduced in 2015 in contrast to the previous two years. Fall storms brought an end to meteorological drought and, eventually, the hydrological drought. The timing of the 2105 drought mimicked patterns predicted by global circulation models (GCMs), i.e., a much stronger mid-summer drought than has been normally observed (usually no more than a month in duration). The drought was clearly stressful for forest vegetation at this elevation in the Luquillo Mountains. Assuming these conditions become more common as currently predicted by GCMs, these forests would suffer significant alteration of phenology and tree growth at increasing frequency.

A fully probabilistic approach to extreme rainfall modeling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Coles, Stuart; Pericchi, Luis Raúl; Sisson, Scott

2003-03-01

It is an embarrassingly frequent experience that statistical practice fails to foresee historical disasters. It is all too easy to blame global trends or some sort of external intervention, but in this article we argue that statistical methods that do not take comprehensive account of the uncertainties involved in both model and predictions, are bound to produce an over-optimistic appraisal of future extremes that is often contradicted by observed hydrological events. Based on the annual and daily rainfall data on the central coast of Venezuela, different modeling strategies and inference approaches show that the 1999 rainfall which caused the worst environmentally related tragedy in Venezuelan history was extreme, but not implausible given the historical evidence. We follow in turn a classical likelihood and Bayesian approach, arguing that the latter is the most natural approach for taking into account all uncertainties. In each case we emphasize the importance of making inference on predicted levels of the process rather than model parameters. Our most detailed model comprises of seasons with unknown starting points and durations for the extremes of daily rainfall whose behavior is described using a standard threshold model. Based on a Bayesian analysis of this model, so that both prediction uncertainty and process heterogeneity are properly modeled, we find that the 1999 event has a sizeable probability which implies that such an occurrence within a reasonably short time horizon could have been anticipated. Finally, since accumulation of extreme rainfall over several days is an additional difficulty—and indeed, the catastrophe of 1999 was exaggerated by heavy rainfall on successive days—we examine the effect of timescale on our broad conclusions, finding results to be broadly similar across different choices.

On the distributions of annual and seasonal daily rainfall extremes in central Arizona and their spatial variability

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mascaro, Giuseppe

2018-04-01

This study uses daily rainfall records of a dense network of 240 gauges in central Arizona to gain insights on (i) the variability of the seasonal distributions of rainfall extremes; (ii) how the seasonal distributions affect the shape of the annual distribution; and (iii) the presence of spatial patterns and orographic control for these distributions. For this aim, recent methodological advancements in peak-over-threshold analysis and application of the Generalized Pareto Distribution (GPD) were used to assess the suitability of the GPD hypothesis and improve the estimation of its parameters, while limiting the effect of short sample sizes. The distribution of daily rainfall extremes was found to be heavy-tailed (i.e., GPD shape parameter ξ > 0) during the summer season, dominated by convective monsoonal thunderstorms. The exponential distribution (a special case of GPD with ξ = 0) was instead showed to be appropriate for modeling wintertime daily rainfall extremes, mainly caused by cold fronts transported by westerly flow. The annual distribution exhibited a mixed behavior, with lighter upper tails than those found in summer. A hybrid model mixing the two seasonal distributions was demonstrated capable of reproducing the annual distribution. Organized spatial patterns, mainly controlled by elevation, were observed for the GPD scale parameter, while ξ did not show any clear control of location or orography. The quantiles returned by the GPD were found to be very similar to those provided by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) Atlas 14, which used the Generalized Extreme Value (GEV) distribution. Results of this work are useful to improve statistical modeling of daily rainfall extremes at high spatial resolution and provide diagnostic tools for assessing the ability of climate models to simulate extreme events.

Development of a multi-sensor based urban discharge forecasting system using remotely sensed data: A case study of extreme rainfall in South Korea

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yoon, Sunkwon; Jang, Sangmin; Park, Kyungwon

2017-04-01

Extreme weather due to changing climate is a main source of water-related disasters such as flooding and inundation and its damage will be accelerated somewhere in world wide. To prevent the water-related disasters and mitigate their damage in urban areas in future, we developed a multi-sensor based real-time discharge forecasting system using remotely sensed data such as radar and satellite. We used Communication, Ocean and Meteorological Satellite (COMS) and Korea Meteorological Agency (KMA) weather radar for quantitative precipitation estimation. The Automatic Weather System (AWS) and McGill Algorithm for Precipitation Nowcasting by Lagrangian Extrapolation (MAPLE) were used for verification of rainfall accuracy. The optimal Z-R relation was applied the Tropical Z-R relationship (Z=32R1.65), it has been confirmed that the accuracy is improved in the extreme rainfall events. In addition, the performance of blended multi-sensor combining rainfall was improved in 60mm/h rainfall and more strong heavy rainfall events. Moreover, we adjusted to forecast the urban discharge using Storm Water Management Model (SWMM). Several statistical methods have been used for assessment of model simulation between observed and simulated discharge. In terms of the correlation coefficient and r-squared discharge between observed and forecasted were highly correlated. Based on this study, we captured a possibility of real-time urban discharge forecasting system using remotely sensed data and its utilization for real-time flood warning. Acknowledgement This research was supported by a grant (13AWMP-B066744-01) from Advanced Water Management Research Program (AWMP) funded by Ministry of Land, Infrastructure and Transport (MOLIT) of Korean government.

An Integrated Urban Flood Analysis System in South Korea

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Moon, Young-Il; Kim, Min-Seok; Yoon, Tae-Hyung; Choi, Ji-Hyeok

2017-04-01

Due to climate change and the rapid growth of urbanization, the frequency of concentrated heavy rainfall has caused urban floods. As a result, we studied climate change in Korea and developed an integrated flood analysis system that systematized technology to quantify flood risk and flood forecasting in urban areas. This system supports synthetic decision-making through real-time monitoring and prediction on flash rain or short-term rainfall by using radar and satellite information. As part of the measures to deal with the increase of inland flood damage, we have found it necessary to build a systematic city flood prevention system that systematizes technology to quantify flood risk as well as flood forecast, taking into consideration both inland and river water. This combined inland-river flood analysis system conducts prediction on flash rain or short-term rainfall by using radar and satellite information and performs prompt and accurate prediction on the inland flooded area. In addition, flood forecasts should be accurate and immediate. Accurate flood forecasts signify that the prediction of the watch, warning time and water level is precise. Immediate flood forecasts represent the forecasts lead time which is the time needed to evacuate. Therefore, in this study, in order to apply rainfall-runoff method to medium and small urban stream for flood forecasts, short-term rainfall forecasting using radar is applied to improve immediacy. Finally, it supports synthetic decision-making for prevention of flood disaster through real-time monitoring. Keywords: Urban Flood, Integrated flood analysis system, Rainfall forecasting, Korea Acknowledgments This research was supported by a grant (16AWMP-B066744-04) from Advanced Water Management Research Program (AWMP) funded by Ministry of Land, Infrastructure and Transport of Korean government.

Performance and efficiency of geotextile-supported erosion control measures during simulated rainfall events

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Obriejetan, Michael; Rauch, Hans Peter; Florineth, Florin

2013-04-01

Erosion control systems consisting of technical and biological components are widely accepted and proven to work well if installed properly with regard to site-specific parameters. A wide range of implementation measures for this specific protection purpose is existent and new, in particular technical solutions are constantly introduced into the market. Nevertheless, especially vegetation aspects of erosion control measures are frequently disregarded and should be considered enhanced against the backdrop of the development and realization of adaptation strategies in an altering environment due to climate change associated effects. Technical auxiliaries such as geotextiles typically used for slope protection (nettings, blankets, turf reinforcement mats etc.) address specific features and due to structural and material diversity, differing effects on sediment yield, surface runoff and vegetational development seem evident. Nevertheless there is a knowledge gap concerning the mutual interaction processes between technical and biological components respectively specific comparable data on erosion-reducing effects of technical-biological erosion protection systems are insufficient. In this context, an experimental arrangement was set up to study the correlated influences of geotextiles and vegetation and determine its (combined) effects on surface runoff and soil loss during simulated heavy rainfall events. Sowing vessels serve as testing facilities which are filled with top soil under application of various organic and synthetic geotextiles and by using a reliable drought resistant seed mixture. Regular vegetational monitoring as well as two rainfall simulation runs with four repetitions of each variant were conducted. Therefore a portable rainfall simulator with standardized rainfall intensity of 240 mm h-1 and three minute rainfall duration was used to stress these systems on different stages of plant development at an inclination of 30 degrees. First results show significant differences between the systems referring to sediment yield and runoff amount respectively vegetation development.

Increasing trends in rainfall-runoff erosivity in the Source Region of the Three Rivers, 1961-2012.

PubMed

Wang, Yousheng; Cheng, Congcong; Xie, Yun; Liu, Baoyuan; Yin, Shuiqing; Liu, Yingna; Hao, Yanfang

2017-08-15

As the head source of the two longest rivers in China and the longest river in Southeast Asia, the East Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau (QTP) is experiencing increasing thaw snowmelt and more heavy precipitation events under global warming, which might lead to soil erosion risk. To understand the potential driving force of soil erosion and its relationship with precipitation in the context of climate change, this study analyzed long-term variations in annual rainfall-runoff erosivity, a climatic index of soil erosion, by using the Mann-Kendall statistical test and Theil and Sen's approach in the Source Region of the Three Rivers during 1961-2012. The results showed the followings: (i) increasing annual rainfall-runoff erosivity was observed over the past 52years, with a mean relative trend index (RT 1 ) value of 12.1%. The increasing trend was more obvious for the latest two decades: RT 1 was nearly three times larger than that over the entire period; (ii) more precipitation events and a higher precipitation amount were the major forces for the increasing rainfall-runoff erosivity; (iii) similar rising trends in sediment yields, which corresponded to rainfall-runoff erosivity under slightly increasing vegetation coverage in the study area, implied a large contribution of rainfall-runoff erosivity to the increasing sediment yields; and (iv) high warming rates increased the risk of soil destruction, soil erosion and sediment yields. Conservation measures, such as enclosing grassland, returning grazing land to grassland and rotation grazing since the 1980s, have maintained vegetation coverage and should be continued and strengthened. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Influence of land use on rainfall simulation results in the Souss basin, Morocco

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Peter, Klaus Daniel; Ries, Johannes B.; Hssaine, Ali Ait

2013-04-01

Situated between the High and Anti-Atlas, the Souss basin is characterized by a dynamic land use change. It is one of the fastest growing agricultural regions of Morocco. Traditional mixed agriculture is replaced by extensive plantations of citrus fruits, bananas and vegetables in monocropping, mainly for the European market. For the implementation of the land use change and further expansion of the plantations into marginal land which was former unsuitable for agriculture, land levelling by heavy machinery is used to plane the fields and close the widespread gullies. These gully systems are cutting deep between the plantations and other arable land. Their development started already over 400 years ago with the introduction of sugar production. Heavy rainfall events lead to further strong soil and gully erosion in this with 200 mm mean annual precipitation normally arid region. Gullies are cutting into the arable land or are re-excavating their old stream courses. On the test sites around the city of Taroudant, a total of 122 rainfall simulations were conducted to analyze the susceptibility of soils to surface runoff and soil erosion under different land use. A small portable nozzle rainfall simulator is used for the rainfall simulation experiments, quantifying runoff and erosion rates on micro-plots with a size of 0.28 m2. A motor pump boosts the water regulated by a flow metre into the commercial full cone nozzle at a height of 2 m. The rainfall intensity is maintained at about 40 mm h-1 for each of the 30 min lasting experiments. Ten categories of land use are classified for different stages of levelling, fallow land, cultivation and rangeland. Results show that mean runoff coefficients and mean sediment loads are significantly higher (1.4 and 3.5 times respectively) on levelled study sites compared to undisturbed sites. However, the runoff coefficients of all land use types are relatively equal and reach high median coefficients from 39 to 56 %. Only the rainfall simulations underneath mandarin trees in a plantation show with 10 % low coefficients. The results are stronger differentiated for the sediment loads. On levelled areas, the simulations reach median sediment loads of 41 and 61 g m-2 respectively. In spite of high runoff coefficients, the lowest sediment loads of around 4.5 g m-2 are measured on old fallow land (>5 y.) and rangeland which are both protected by biological crusts. The same low result is found on the mandarin plantation. On other younger fallow land (1-2, 2-5 y.) as well as on stone covered badlands and sundry anthropogenic influenced soils medium soil losses between 18 and 25 g m-2 are reached. On sparsely vegetated grain fields, soil erosion is because of initiated crusting despite lower runoff coefficients with 30 g m-2 still high. Land-levelling measures have the greatest influence on rainfall simulation results. Although runoff coefficients on almost all land use types are similar, clear differences of soil erosion due to different land use can be identified.

75 FR 50688 - Special Conditions: Erickson Air-Crane Incorporated S-64E and S-64F Rotorcraft

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2010-08-17

...) model S-64E and S-64F rotorcraft. These rotorcraft have novel or unusual design features associated with being transport category rotorcraft designed only for use in heavy external-load operations. At the time...) Powerplant Instruments. At the time of original certification, the S-64 had a novel design of being powered...

Predicting combined sewer overflows chamber depth using artificial neural networks with rainfall radar data.

PubMed

Mounce, S R; Shepherd, W; Sailor, G; Shucksmith, J; Saul, A J

2014-01-01

Combined sewer overflows (CSOs) represent a common feature in combined urban drainage systems and are used to discharge excess water to the environment during heavy storms. To better understand the performance of CSOs, the UK water industry has installed a large number of monitoring systems that provide data for these assets. This paper presents research into the prediction of the hydraulic performance of CSOs using artificial neural networks (ANN) as an alternative to hydraulic models. Previous work has explored using an ANN model for the prediction of chamber depth using time series for depth and rain gauge data. Rainfall intensity data that can be provided by rainfall radar devices can be used to improve on this approach. Results are presented using real data from a CSO for a catchment in the North of England, UK. An ANN model trained with the pseudo-inverse rule was shown to be capable of predicting CSO depth with less than 5% error for predictions more than 1 hour ahead for unseen data. Such predictive approaches are important to the future management of combined sewer systems.

Landslides Are Common In The Amazon Rainforests Of SE Peru

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Khanal, S. P.; Muttiah, R. S.; Janovec, J. P.

2005-12-01

The recent landslides in La Conchita, California, Mumbai, India, Ratnapura, Sri Lanka and Sugozu village, Turkey have dramatically illustrated prolonged rainfall on water induced change in soil shear stress. In these examples, the human footprint may have also erased or altered the natural river drainage from small to large scales. By studying patterns of landslides in natural ecosystems, government officials, policy makers, engineers, geologists and others may be better informed about likely success of prevention or amelioration programs in risk prone areas. Our study area in the Los Amigos basin in Amazon rainforests of Southeastern Peru, has recorded several hundred landslides. The area has no large human settlements. The basin is characterized by heavy rainfall, dense vegetation, river meander and uniform soils. Our objectives were: 1). Determine the spatial pattern of landslides using GIS and Remotely sensed data, 2). Model the statistical relationship between environmental variables and, 3). Evaluate influence of drainage on landscape and soil loss. GIS layers consisted of: 50cm aerial imagery, DEMs, digitized streams, soils, geology, rainfall from the TRMM satellite, and vegetation cover from the LANDSAT and MODIS sensors.

Impact of landslides induced by 2014 northeast monsoon extreme rain in Malaysia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fukuoka, Hiroshi; Koay, Swee Peng; Sakai, Naoki; Lateh, Habibah

2016-04-01

In December 2014, northeast monsoon brought extreme rainfalls to Malaysia, mainly in the eastern coast of Peninsular Malaysia and coastal area in Sabah and Sarawak. In this month, many of the rain gauge records in this area exceeded 1,000 mm, which is about 1/3 of average annual rainfall precipitation (2,850mm/year) in Malaysia. This unexpected heavy rainfall induced landslides and floods which brought about large-scale losses in Malaysia equivalent to several hundred million USD as thousands of residents had evacuated from hometown for months, and factories, schools and business activities were shut down for weeks. Among the major infrastructure of the nation, East-west Highway was subjected to damages by 21 landslides. Two large-scale landslides cut off the highway for a week. Authors had installed landslide monitoring instruments at reactivated landslide sites along the highway at N05° 36.042' E101° 35.546'. Records by in-situ inclinometers showed clear deformation from 17th December to 26th December, associated with certain change in piezometeres record for groundwater level monitoring. Several cracks occurred in the slope.

Characterisation of heavy metal discharge into the Ria of Huelva.

PubMed

Sainz, A; Grande, J A; de la Torre, M L

2004-06-01

The Ria of Huelva estuary, in SW Spain, is known to be one of the most heavy metal contaminated estuaries in the world. River contribution to the estuary of dissolved Cu, Zn, Mn, Cr, Ni, Cd, and As were analysed for the period 1988-2001. The obtained mean values show that this contribution, both because of the magnitude of total metals (895.1 kg/h), composition, toxicity (8.7 kg/h of As+Cd+Pb) and persistence, is an incomparable case in heavy metal contamination of estuaries. The amount and typology of heavy metal discharge to the Ria of Huelva are related to freshwater flow (and, consequently, to rainfall); as a result, two different types of heavy metal discharge can be distinguished in the estuary: during low water (50% of the days), with only 19.3 kg/h of heavy metals, and during high water or flood (17% of the days), where daily maximum discharge of 72,475 kg of heavy metals were recorded, from which 1481 kg were of As, 470 kg of Pb, and 170 kg of Cd. In the most frequent situation (77% of the days), the Odiel River discharges from 90% to 100% of the freshwater received by the estuary. Despite this, the high concentration of heavy metals in the Tinto River water causes this river to discharge into the Ria of Huelva 12.5% of fluvial total dissolved metal load received by the estuary.

"Unusual brain stone": heavily calcified primary neoplasm with some features suggestive of angiocentric glioma.

PubMed

Sajjad, Jahangir; Kaliaperumal, Chandrasekaran; Bermingham, Niamh; Marks, Charles; Keohane, Catherine

2015-11-01

This 40-year-old man presented with a 5-month history of progressive right-sided headache associated with visual blurring. He also had a history of epilepsy but had been seizure free with medication for the past 10 years. An initial CT scan of his brain performed 16 years previously had revealed a small area of calcification in the right parietal region. In the current presentation, he had a left-sided homonymous hemianopia but no other neurological deficits. A CT scan of his brain showed a much larger calcified, partly cystic lesion in the right parietal region. Because he was symptomatic, the lesion was excised and the cyst was drained. Histological examination of the excised tissue showed an unusual primary tumor that was difficult to classify but had some features of angiocentric glioma. The heavy calcification, mixed-density cell population, and regions with features of angiocentric glioma were most unusual. The patient remained asymptomatic 5 years after surgery, and follow-up scans did not show recurrence.

Structural Changes and Convective Processes in Tropical Cyclones as Seen in Infrared and Water Vapor Satellite Data

DTIC Science & Technology

2013-05-10

tropical depression; yellow, a tropical storm ; red, a typhoon; and purple, an extratropical cyclone (after http://agora.ex.nii.ac.jp/digital- typhoon... storm (JTWC 2012). Tropical Storm Jelawat continued into the Sea of Japan, where it completed extratropical transition (JTWC 2012...including strong winds, storm surge, high waves, and heavy rainfall, threaten archipelagos, densely crowded coastlines, and naval forces ashore and

Interception of rainfall in a young loblolly pine plantation

Treesearch

Marvin D. Hoover

1953-01-01

Those who have sought refuge during a storm have found a tree to be an effective umbrella for a light shower but leaky in a heavy rain. Even so, it is usually possible to stay slightly more dry under forest canopy than in the open. That is because a portion of the rain is stored on leaves and branches and eventually evaporated back to the air. The term interception is...

Coast and river mouths, Columbia, South America

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

1982-01-01

Numerous rivers in Ecuador and Columbia stand out in this South American Pacific coastal scene (1.5N, 79.0W). This region has one of the highest rainfalls in the world with the consequent heavy cloud cover and it is rare to be able to photograph the surface. The Pacific mountain drainage area is small but produces a large volume of runoff and sediment flow into the ocean.

Mesoanalysis of record Chicago rainstorm using radar, satellite, and rain-gage data

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Fujita, T. T.

1977-01-01

Comparison of cloud-top topography and rainfall rates at the surface revealed that the areas of heavy rain are located where there are depressions at the anvil top. It was also found that the Z-R relationships show a large scatter when vertical and/or horizontal air currents are strong. Results of this research led to Project NIMROD proposed to begin in May 1978.

Chapter C. The Loma Prieta, California, Earthquake of October 17, 1989 - Landslides

USGS Publications Warehouse

Keefer, David K.

1998-01-01

Central California, in the vicinity of San Francisco and Monterey Bays, has a history of fatal and damaging landslides, triggered by heavy rainfall, coastal and stream erosion, construction activity, and earthquakes. The great 1906 San Francisco earthquake (MS=8.2-8.3) generated more than 10,000 landslides throughout an area of 32,000 km2; these landslides killed at least 11 people and caused substantial damage to buildings, roads, railroads, and other civil works. Smaller numbers of landslides, which caused more localized damage, have also been reported from at least 20 other earthquakes that have occurred in the San Francisco Bay-Monterey Bay region since 1838. Conditions that make this region particularly susceptible to landslides include steep and rugged topography, weak rock and soil materials, seasonally heavy rainfall, and active seismicity. Given these conditions and history, it was no surprise that the 1989 Loma Prieta earthquake generated thousands of landslides throughout the region. Landslides caused one fatality and damaged at least 200 residences, numerous roads, and many other structures. Direct damage from landslides probably exceeded $30 million; additional, indirect economic losses were caused by long-term landslide blockage of two major highways and by delays in rebuilding brought about by concern over the potential long-term instability of some earthquake-damaged slopes.