44 CFR 9.4 - Definitions.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

2014-10-01

... subject to high velocity waters including but not limited to hurricane wave wash or tsunamis. On a Flood... normally dry land areas from the overflow of inland and/or tidal waters, and/or the unusual and rapid...

44 CFR 9.4 - Definitions.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

2012-10-01

... subject to high velocity waters including but not limited to hurricane wave wash or tsunamis. On a Flood... normally dry land areas from the overflow of inland and/or tidal waters, and/or the unusual and rapid...

44 CFR 9.4 - Definitions.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-10-01

... subject to high velocity waters including but not limited to hurricane wave wash or tsunamis. On a Flood... normally dry land areas from the overflow of inland and/or tidal waters, and/or the unusual and rapid...

44 CFR 9.4 - Definitions.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-10-01

... subject to high velocity waters including but not limited to hurricane wave wash or tsunamis. On a Flood... normally dry land areas from the overflow of inland and/or tidal waters, and/or the unusual and rapid...

Suspected Offshore Chalcolithic/Early Bronze Age Tsunamigenic Sediments: Jisr al Zarka, Israel

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tiulienieva, N.; Braun, Y.; Katz, T.; Goodman-Tchernov, B. N.; Suchkov, I.

2017-12-01

Offshore tsunami deposits are a potentially important sedimentological archive for past tsunamis. They have been identified offshore of Israel using granulometric, geoarchaeological, and micropaleontological indicators. Recent advances in tsunami sedimentological research have put forth a series of new proxies that may be useful tools for tsunami deposit identification. The well-studied offshore deposits of Israel provide a unique opportunity to test some of these proxies because they present good distinction between tsunami and non-tsunami deposits and they can be associated with a rich historical record and archaeological artifacts. In this study, a 219 cm long sediment core, retrieved from a 15.3 m water depth, situated in about 5 km to the north from well studied shallow shelf, offshore Caesarea. Based on the previously used criteria three layers in the new core were identified as tsunami-generated. Two of these correlated to previously described tsunami events in Caesarea; 749 AD and 1500 BC. The third layer gave the time frame from 5.6 to 6 ka BP, making this event the oldest identified in the Eastern Mediterranean to date. Identified unusual layers were attributed to tsunami-generated sedimentary sequences, based on both visually recognizable indicators and the results of laboratory analyses. FT-IR, XRD, and XRF analysis were also applied. The results of this study allow to make following conclusions: (1) visual tsunami indicators in the studied core are similar to those in Caesarea, but lack archaeological debris; (2) while distinct deviation of granulometric coefficients (mean, median, standard deviation, skewness, kurtosis) correlated to tsunami layers, the additional proxies of deposition rate and mollusk assemblage excluded one deviated layer from tsunamigenic-designation; (3) the results of XRF, FT-IR, XRD showed that they are not useful as independent methods at this study site.

Occurrence of 1 ka-old corals on an uplifted reef terrace in west Luzon, Philippines: Implications for a prehistoric extreme wave event in the South China Sea region

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ramos, Noelynna T.; Maxwell, Kathrine V.; Tsutsumi, Hiroyuki; Chou, Yu-Chen; Duan, Fucai; Shen, Chuan-Chou; Satake, Kenji

2017-12-01

Recent 230Th dating of fossil corals in west Luzon has provided new insights on the emergence of late Quaternary marine terraces that fringe west Luzon Island facing the Manila Trench. Apart from regional sea level changes, accumulated uplift from aseismic and seismic processes may have influenced the emergence of sea level indicators such as coral terraces and notches. Varied elevations of middle-to-late Holocene coral terraces along the west Luzon coasts reveal the differential uplift that is probably associated with the movement of local onland faults or upper-plate structures across the Manila Trench forearc basin. In Badoc Island, offshore west of Luzon mainland, we found notably young fossil corals, dated at 945.1 ± 4.6 years BP and 903.1 ± 3.9 years BP, on top of a 5-m-high reef platform. To constrain the mechanism of emergence or emplacement of these fossil corals, we use field geomorphic data and wave inundation models to constrain an extreme wave event that affected west Luzon about 1000 years ago. Our preliminary tectonic and tsunami models show that a megathrust rupture will likely lead to subsidence of a large part of the west Luzon coast, while permanent coastal uplift is attributed to an offshore upper-plate rupture in the northern Manila Trench forearc region. The modeled source fault ruptures and tsunami lead to a maximum wave height of more than 3 m and inundation distance as far as 2 km along the coasts of western and northern Luzon. While emplacement of coral boulders by an unusually strong typhoon is also likely, modeled storm surge heights along west Luzon do not exceed 2 m even with Typhoon Haiyan characteristics. Whether tsunami or unusually strong typhoon, the occurrence of a prehistoric extreme wave event in west Luzon remains an important issue in future studies of coastal hazards in the South China Sea region.

A global probabilistic tsunami hazard assessment from earthquake sources

USGS Publications Warehouse

Davies, Gareth; Griffin, Jonathan; Lovholt, Finn; Glimsdal, Sylfest; Harbitz, Carl; Thio, Hong Kie; Lorito, Stefano; Basili, Roberto; Selva, Jacopo; Geist, Eric L.; Baptista, Maria Ana

2017-01-01

Large tsunamis occur infrequently but have the capacity to cause enormous numbers of casualties, damage to the built environment and critical infrastructure, and economic losses. A sound understanding of tsunami hazard is required to underpin management of these risks, and while tsunami hazard assessments are typically conducted at regional or local scales, globally consistent assessments are required to support international disaster risk reduction efforts, and can serve as a reference for local and regional studies. This study presents a global-scale probabilistic tsunami hazard assessment (PTHA), extending previous global-scale assessments based largely on scenario analysis. Only earthquake sources are considered, as they represent about 80% of the recorded damaging tsunami events. Globally extensive estimates of tsunami run-up height are derived at various exceedance rates, and the associated uncertainties are quantified. Epistemic uncertainties in the exceedance rates of large earthquakes often lead to large uncertainties in tsunami run-up. Deviations between modelled tsunami run-up and event observations are quantified, and found to be larger than suggested in previous studies. Accounting for these deviations in PTHA is important, as it leads to a pronounced increase in predicted tsunami run-up for a given exceedance rate.

The Big Splash: Tsunami from Large Asteroid and Comet Impacts

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hills, J.; Goda, M.

Asteroid and comet impacts produce a large range of damage. Tsunami may produce most of the economic damage in large asteroid impacts. Large asteroid impacts produce worldwide darkness lasting several months that may kill more people by mass starvation, especially in developing countries, than would tsunami, but the dust should not severely affect economic infrastructure. The tsunami may even kill more people in developed countries with large coastal populations, such as the United States, than the starvation resulting from darkness. We have been determining which regions of Earth are most susceptible to asteroid tsunami by simulating the effect of a large asteroid impact into mid-ocean. We have modeled the effect of midAtlantic and midPacific impacts that produce craters 300 to 150 km in diameter. A KT-size impactor would cause the larger of these craters. We used a computer code that has successfully determined the runup and inundation from historical earthquake-generated tsunami. The code has been progressively improved to eliminate previous problems at the domain boundaries, so it now runs until the tsunami inundation is complete. We find that the larger of these two midAtlantic impacts would engulf the entire Florida Peninsula. The smaller one would inundate the eastern third of the peninsula while a tsunami passing through the Gulf of Cuba would inundate the West Coast of Florida. Impacts at three different sites in the Pacific show the great vulnerability of Tokyo and its surroundings to asteroid tsunami. Mainland Asia is relatively protected from asteroid tsunami. In Europe, the Iberian Peninsula and the Atlantic Providences of France are highly vulnerable to asteroid tsunami.

Destruction of Atlantis by a great earthquake and tsunami? A geological analysis of the Spartel Bank hypothesis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gutscher, Marc-André

2005-08-01

Numerous geographical similarities exist between Plato's descriptions of Atlantis and a paleoisland (Spartel) in the western Straits of Gibraltar. The dialogues recount a catastrophic event that submerged the island ca. 11.6 ka in a single day and night, due to violent earthquakes and floods. This sudden destruction is consistent with a great earthquake (M > 8.5) and tsunami, as in the Gulf of Cadiz region in 1755 when tsunami run-up heights reached 10 m. Great earthquakes (M 8 9) and tsunamis occur in the Gulf of Cadiz with a repeat time of 1.5 2 k.y., according to the sedimentary record. An unusually thick turbidite dated as ca. 12 ka may coincide with the destructive event in Plato's account. The detailed morphology of Spartel paleoisland, as determined from recently acquired high-resolution bathymetric data, is reported here. The viability of human habitation on this paleoisland ca. 11.6 ka is discussed on the basis of a new bathymetric map.

Method to Determine Appropriate Source Models of Large Earthquakes Including Tsunami Earthquakes for Tsunami Early Warning in Central America

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tanioka, Yuichiro; Miranda, Greyving Jose Arguello; Gusman, Aditya Riadi; Fujii, Yushiro

2017-08-01

Large earthquakes, such as the Mw 7.7 1992 Nicaragua earthquake, have occurred off the Pacific coasts of El Salvador and Nicaragua in Central America and have generated distractive tsunamis along these coasts. It is necessary to determine appropriate fault models before large tsunamis hit the coast. In this study, first, fault parameters were estimated from the W-phase inversion, and then an appropriate fault model was determined from the fault parameters and scaling relationships with a depth dependent rigidity. The method was tested for four large earthquakes, the 1992 Nicaragua tsunami earthquake (Mw7.7), the 2001 El Salvador earthquake (Mw7.7), the 2004 El Astillero earthquake (Mw7.0), and the 2012 El Salvador-Nicaragua earthquake (Mw7.3), which occurred off El Salvador and Nicaragua in Central America. The tsunami numerical simulations were carried out from the determined fault models. We found that the observed tsunami heights, run-up heights, and inundation areas were reasonably well explained by the computed ones. Therefore, our method for tsunami early warning purpose should work to estimate a fault model which reproduces tsunami heights near the coast of El Salvador and Nicaragua due to large earthquakes in the subduction zone.

Paleo-tsunami history along the northern Japan Trench: evidence from Noda Village, northern Sanriku coast, Japan

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Inoue, Taiga; Goto, Kazuhisa; Nishimura, Yuichi; Watanabe, Masashi; Iijima, Yasutaka; Sugawara, Daisuke

2017-12-01

Throughout history, large tsunamis have frequently affected the Sanriku area of the Pacific coast of the Tohoku region, Japan, which faces the Japan Trench. Although a few studies have examined paleo-tsunami deposits along the Sanriku coast, additional studies of paleo-earthquakes and tsunamis are needed to improve our knowledge of the timing, recurrence interval, and size of historical and pre-historic tsunamis. At Noda Village, in Iwate Prefecture on the northern Sanriku coast, we found at least four distinct gravelly sand layers based on correlation and chronological data. Sedimentary features such as grain size and thickness suggest that extreme waves from the sea formed these layers. Numerical modeling of storm waves further confirmed that even extremely large storm waves cannot account for the distribution of the gravelly sand layers, suggesting that these deposits are highly likely to have formed by tsunami waves. The numerical method of storm waves can be useful to identify sand layers as tsunami deposits if the deposits are observed far inland or at high elevations. The depositional age of the youngest tsunami deposit is consistent with the AD 869 Jogan earthquake tsunami, a possible predecessor of the AD 2011 Tohoku-oki tsunami. If this is the case, then the study site currently defines the possible northern extent of the AD 869 Jogan tsunami deposit, which is an important step in improving the tsunami source model of the AD 869 Jogan tsunami. Our results suggest that four large tsunamis struck the Noda site between 1100 and 2700 cal BP. The local tsunami sizes are comparable to the AD 2011 and AD 1896 Meiji Sanriku tsunamis, considering the landward extent of each tsunami deposit.

Tsunami normal modes with solid earth and atmospheric coupling and inversion of the TEC data to estimate tsunami water height in the case of the Queen Charlotte tsunami.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rakoto, V.; Lognonne, P. H.; Rolland, L.

2016-12-01

Large underwater earthquakes (Mw > 7) can transmit part of their energy to the surrounding ocean through large sea-floor motions, generating tsunamis that propagate over long distances. The forcing effect of long period ocean surface vibrations due to tsunami waves on the atmosphere trigger atmospheric internal gravity waves (IGWs) that induce ionospheric disturbances when they reach the upper atmosphere. In this poster, we study the IGWs associated to tsunamis using a normal modes 1D modeling approach. Our model is first applied to the case of the October 2012 Haida Gwaii tsunami observed offshore Hawaii. We found three resonances between tsunami modes and the atmospheric gravity modes occurring around 1.5 mHz, 2 mHz and 2.5 mHz, with a large fraction of the energy of the tsunami modes transferred from the ocean to the atmosphere. At theses frequencies, the gravity branches are interacting with the tsunami one and have large amplitude in the ocean. As opposed to the tsunami, a fraction of their energy is therefore transferred from the atmosphere to the ocean. We also show that the fundamental of the gravity waves should arrive before the tsunami due to higher group velocity below 1.6 mHz. We demonstrate that only the 1.5 mHz resonance of the tsunami mode can trigger observable ionospheric perturbations, most often monitored using GPS dual-frequency measurements. Indeed, we show that the modes at 2 mHz and 2.5 mHz are already evanescent at the height of the F2 peak and have little energy in the ionosphere. This normal modes modeling offers a novel and comprehensive study of the transfer function from a propagating tsunami to the upper atmosphere. In particular, we can invert the perturbed TEC data induced by a tsunami in order to estimate the amplitude of the tsunami waveform using a least square method. This method has been performed in the case of the Haida Gwaii tsunami. The results showed a good agreement with the measurement of the dart buoy.

Hazard Assessment and Early Warning of Tsunamis: Lessons from the 2011 Tohoku earthquake

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Satake, K.

2012-12-01

The March 11, 2011 Tohoku earthquake (M 9.0) was the largest earthquake in Japanese history, and was the best recorded subduction-zone earthquakes in the world. In particular, various offshore geophysical observations revealed large horizontal and vertical seafloor movements, and the tsunami was recorded on high-quality, high-sampling gauges. Analysis of such tsunami waveforms shows a temporal and spatial slip distribution during the 2011 Tohoku earthquake. The fault rupture started near the hypocenter and propagated into both deep and shallow parts of the plate interface. Very large, ~25 m, slip off Miyagi on the deep part of plate interface corresponds to an interplate earthquake of M 8.8, the location and size similar to 869 Jogan earthquake model, and was responsible for the large tsunami inundation in Sendai and Ishinomaki plains. Huge slip, more than 50 m, occurred on the shallow part near the trench axis ~3 min after the earthquake origin time. This delayed shallow rupture (M 8.8) was similar to the 1896 "tsunami earthquake," and was responsible for the large tsunami on the northern Sanriku coast, measured at ~100 km north of the largest slip. Thus the Tohoku earthquake can be decomposed into an interplate earthquake and the triggered "tsunami earthquake." The Japan Meteorological Agency issued tsunami warning 3 minutes after the earthquake, and saved many lives. However, their initial estimation of tsunami height was underestimated, because the earthquake magnitude was initially estimated as M 7.9, hence the computed tsunami heights were lower. The JMA attempts to improve the tsunami warning system, including technical developments to estimate the earthquake size in a few minutes by using various and redundant information, to deploy and utilize the offshore tsunami observations, and to issue a warning based on the worst case scenario if a possibility of giant earthquake exists. Predicting a trigger of another large earthquake would still be a challenge. Tsunami hazard assessments or long-term forecast of earthquakes have not considered such a triggering or simultaneous occurrence of different types of earthquakes. The large tsunami at the Fukushima nuclear power station was due to the combination of the deep and shallow slip. Disaster prevention for low-frequency but large-scale hazard must be considered. The Japanese government established a general policy to for two levels: L1 and L2. The L2 tsunamis are the largest possible tsunamis with low frequency of occurrence, but cause devastating disaster once they occur. For such events, saving people's lives is the first priority and soft measures such as tsunami hazard maps, evacuation facilities or disaster education will be prepared. The L1 tsunamis are expected to occur more frequently, typically once in a few decades, for which hard countermeasures such as breakwater must be prepared to protect lives and properties of residents as well as economic and industrial activities.

Does Morphological Adjustment During Tsunami Inundation Increase Levels of Hazard?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tehranirad, B.; Kirby, J. T., Jr.; Shi, F.; Grilli, S. T.

2016-12-01

Previous inundation mapping results for the US East Coast have shown that barrier islands would be among the most impacted areas during a possible tsunami. Many of these barriers are home to large population centers such as Atlantic City, NJ and Ocean City, MD. A tsunami can significantly change coastal morphology. Post-tsunami surveys have shown that large amounts of sediment can be moved in bays and estuaries by tsunami action, especially over coastal dunes. During tsunami inundation, large amounts of sediment have been eroded from sandy coasts and deposited further onshore. In some cases, sand dunes have been completely eroded by a tsunami, with the eroded sediment being deposited either onshore behind the dunes, or offshore during the rundown process. Given the potential for tsunamis to change coastal morphology, it is necessary to consider whether barrier island morphology change during inundation, if accounted for, would increase the assessment of tsunami hazard identified in the development of inundation and evacuation maps. In this presentation, we will show the results of our recent study on the morphological response of barrier islands during possible tsunamis that threaten the US East Coast. For this purpose, we have coupled the Boussinesq model FUNWAVE-TVD with a depth-averaged advection-diffusion sediment transport model and a morphology module to capture bed evolution under tsunami conditions. The model is verified in comparison to laboratory observations and to observed erosion/deposition patterns in Crescent City, CA harbor during the 2011 Tohoku-oki tsunami. We then use the model to study the effect of morphology change on predicted inundation limits for two barrier islands: the undeveloped Assateague Island, and the developed Ocean City, MD, using the tsunami sources utilized in previous hazard analysis. Our results suggest that significant bathymetric changes could be expected on a barrier island during tsunami inundation, leading to large increases in inundation areas for some of the events, particularly for smaller events where inundation without progressive dune breaching is minor.

Fault Slip Distribution of the 2016 Fukushima Earthquake Estimated from Tsunami Waveforms

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gusman, Aditya Riadi; Satake, Kenji; Shinohara, Masanao; Sakai, Shin'ichi; Tanioka, Yuichiro

2017-08-01

The 2016 Fukushima normal-faulting earthquake (Mjma 7.4) occurred 40 km off the coast of Fukushima within the upper crust. The earthquake generated a moderate tsunami which was recorded by coastal tide gauges and offshore pressure gauges. First, the sensitivity of tsunami waveforms to fault dimensions and depths was examined and the best size and depth were determined. Tsunami waveforms computed based on four available focal mechanisms showed that a simple fault striking northeast-southwest and dipping southeast (strike = 45°, dip = 41°, rake = -95°) yielded the best fit to the observed waveforms. This fault geometry was then used in a tsunami waveform inversion to estimate the fault slip distribution. A large slip of 3.5 m was located near the surface and the major slip region covered an area of 20 km × 20 km. The seismic moment, calculated assuming a rigidity of 2.7 × 1010 N/m2 was 3.70 × 1019 Nm, equivalent to Mw = 7.0. This is slightly larger than the moments from the moment tensor solutions (Mw 6.9). Large secondary tsunami peaks arrived approximately an hour after clear initial peaks were recorded by the offshore pressure gauges and the Sendai and Ofunato tide gauges. Our tsunami propagation model suggests that the large secondary tsunami signals were from tsunami waves reflected off the Fukushima coast. A rather large tsunami amplitude of 75 cm at Kuji, about 300 km north of the source, was comparable to those recorded at stations located much closer to the epicenter, such as Soma and Onahama. Tsunami simulations and ray tracing for both real and artificial bathymetry indicate that a significant portion of the tsunami wave was refracted to the coast located around Kuji and Miyako due to bathymetry effects.

Earthquake mechanism and seafloor deformation for tsunami generation

USGS Publications Warehouse

Geist, Eric L.; Oglesby, David D.; Beer, Michael; Kougioumtzoglou, Ioannis A.; Patelli, Edoardo; Siu-Kui Au, Ivan

2014-01-01

Tsunamis are generated in the ocean by rapidly displacing the entire water column over a significant area. The potential energy resulting from this disturbance is balanced with the kinetic energy of the waves during propagation. Only a handful of submarine geologic phenomena can generate tsunamis: large-magnitude earthquakes, large landslides, and volcanic processes. Asteroid and subaerial landslide impacts can generate tsunami waves from above the water. Earthquakes are by far the most common generator of tsunamis. Generally, earthquakes greater than magnitude (M) 6.5–7 can generate tsunamis if they occur beneath an ocean and if they result in predominantly vertical displacement. One of the greatest uncertainties in both deterministic and probabilistic hazard assessments of tsunamis is computing seafloor deformation for earthquakes of a given magnitude.

Highly variable recurrence of tsunamis in the 7,400 years before the 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Horton, B.; Rubin, C. M.; Sieh, K.; Jessica, P.; Daly, P.; Ismail, N.; Parnell, A. C.

2017-12-01

The devastating 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami caught millions of coastal residents and the scientific community off-guard. Subsequent research in the Indian Ocean basin has identified prehistoric tsunamis, but the timing and recurrence intervals of such events are uncertain. Here, we identify coastal caves as a new depositional environment for reconstructing tsunami records and present a 5,000 year record of continuous tsunami deposits from a coastal cave in Sumatra, Indonesia which shows the irregular recurrence of 11 tsunamis between 7,400 and 2,900 years BP. The data demonstrates that the 2004 tsunami was just the latest in a sequence of devastating tsunamis stretching back to at least the early Holocene and suggests a high likelihood for future tsunamis in the Indian Ocean. The sedimentary record in the cave shows that ruptures of the Sunda megathrust vary between large (which generated the 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami) and smaller slip failures. The chronology of events suggests the recurrence of multiple smaller tsunamis within relatively short time periods, interrupted by long periods of strain accumulation followed by giant tsunamis. The average time period between tsunamis is about 450 years with intervals ranging from a long, dormant period of over 2,000 years, to multiple tsunamis within the span of a century. The very long dormant period suggests that the Sunda megathrust is capable of accumulating large slip deficits between earthquakes. Such a high slip rupture would produce a substantially larger earthquake than the 2004 event. Although there is evidence that the likelihood of another tsunamigenic earthquake in Aceh province is high, these variable recurrence intervals suggest that long dormant periods may follow Sunda Megathrust ruptures as large as that of 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami. The remarkable variability of recurrence suggests that regional hazard mitigation plans should be based upon the high likelihood of future destructive tsunami demonstrated by the cave record and other paleotsunami sites, rather than estimates of recurrence intervals.

Warnings and reactions to the Tohoku tsunami in Hawaii

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Houghton, B. F.; Gregg, C. E.

2012-12-01

The 2011 Tohoku tsunami was the first chance within the USA to document and interpret large-scale response and protective action behavior with regard to a large, destructive tsunami since 1964. The 2011 tsunami offered a unique, short-lived opportunity to transform our understanding of individual and collective behavior in the US in response to a well-publicized tsunami warning and, in particular, to look at the complex interplay of official information sources, informal warnings and information-seeking in communities with significant physical impact from the 2011 tsunami. This study is focused in Hawaii, which suffered significant ($30 M), but localized damage, from the 2011 Tohoku tsunami and underwent a full-scale tsunami evacuation. The survey contrasts three Hawaiian communities which either experienced significant tsunami damage (Kona) or little physical impact (Hilo, Honolulu). It also contrasts a long-established local community with experience of evacuation, destruction and loss of life in two tsunamis (Hilo) with a metropolitan population with a large visitor presence (Honolulu) that has not experienced a damaging tsunami in decades. Many factors such as personal perceptions of risk, beliefs, past exposure to the hazard, forecast uncertainty, trust in information sources, channels of transmission of information, the need for message confirmation, responsibilities, obligations, mobility, the ability to prepare, the availability of transportation and transport routes, and an acceptable evacuation center affected behavior. We provide new information on how people reacted to warnings and tsunamis, especially with regard to social integration of official warnings and social media. The results of this study will strengthen community resilience to tsunamis, working with emergency managers to integrate strengths and weaknesses of the public responses with official response plans.

Mechanism of the 2015 volcanic tsunami earthquake near Torishima, Japan

PubMed Central

Satake, Kenji

2018-01-01

Tsunami earthquakes are a group of enigmatic earthquakes generating disproportionally large tsunamis relative to seismic magnitude. These events occur most typically near deep-sea trenches. Tsunami earthquakes occurring approximately every 10 years near Torishima on the Izu-Bonin arc are another example. Seismic and tsunami waves from the 2015 event [Mw (moment magnitude) = 5.7] were recorded by an offshore seafloor array of 10 pressure gauges, ~100 km away from the epicenter. We made an array analysis of dispersive tsunamis to locate the tsunami source within the submarine Smith Caldera. The tsunami simulation from a large caldera-floor uplift of ~1.5 m with a small peripheral depression yielded waveforms remarkably similar to the observations. The estimated central uplift, 1.5 m, is ~20 times larger than that inferred from the seismologically determined non–double-couple source. Thus, the tsunami observation is not compatible with the published seismic source model taken at face value. However, given the indeterminacy of Mzx, Mzy, and M{tensile} of a shallow moment tensor source, it may be possible to find a source mechanism with efficient tsunami but inefficient seismic radiation that can satisfactorily explain both the tsunami and seismic observations, but this question remains unresolved. PMID:29740604

Mechanism of the 2015 volcanic tsunami earthquake near Torishima, Japan.

PubMed

Fukao, Yoshio; Sandanbata, Osamu; Sugioka, Hiroko; Ito, Aki; Shiobara, Hajime; Watada, Shingo; Satake, Kenji

2018-04-01

Tsunami earthquakes are a group of enigmatic earthquakes generating disproportionally large tsunamis relative to seismic magnitude. These events occur most typically near deep-sea trenches. Tsunami earthquakes occurring approximately every 10 years near Torishima on the Izu-Bonin arc are another example. Seismic and tsunami waves from the 2015 event [ M w (moment magnitude) = 5.7] were recorded by an offshore seafloor array of 10 pressure gauges, ~100 km away from the epicenter. We made an array analysis of dispersive tsunamis to locate the tsunami source within the submarine Smith Caldera. The tsunami simulation from a large caldera-floor uplift of ~1.5 m with a small peripheral depression yielded waveforms remarkably similar to the observations. The estimated central uplift, 1.5 m, is ~20 times larger than that inferred from the seismologically determined non-double-couple source. Thus, the tsunami observation is not compatible with the published seismic source model taken at face value. However, given the indeterminacy of M zx , M zy , and M {tensile} of a shallow moment tensor source, it may be possible to find a source mechanism with efficient tsunami but inefficient seismic radiation that can satisfactorily explain both the tsunami and seismic observations, but this question remains unresolved.

Volcanic Tsunami Generation in the Aleutian Arc of Alaska

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Waythomas, C. F.; Watts, P.

2003-12-01

Many of the worlds active volcanoes are situated on or near coastlines, and during eruptions the transfer of mass from volcano to sea is a potential source mechanism for tsunamis. Flows of granular material off of volcanoes, such as pyroclastic flow, debris avalanche, and lahar, often deliver large volumes of unconsolidated debris to the ocean that have a large potential tsunami hazard. The deposits of both hot and cold volcanic grain flows produced by eruptions of Aleutian arc volcanoes are exposed at many locations along the coastlines of the Bering Sea, North Pacific Ocean, and Cook Inlet indicating that the flows entered the sea and in some cases may have initiated tsunamis. We evaluate the process of tsunami generation by granular subaerial volcanic flows using examples from Aniakchak volcano in southwestern Alaska, and Augustine volcano in southern Cook Inlet. Evidence for far-field tsunami inundation coincident with a major caldera-forming eruption of Aniakchak volcano ca. 3.5 ka has been described and is the basis for one of our case studies. We perform a numerical simulation of the tsunami using a large volume pyroclastic flow as the source mechanism and compare our results to field measurements of tsunami deposits preserved along the north shore of Bristol Bay. Several attributes of the tsunami simulation, such as water flux and wave amplitude, are reasonable predictors of tsunami deposit thickness and generally agree with the field evidence for tsunami inundation. At Augustine volcano, geological investigations suggest that as many as 14 large volcanic-rock avalanches have reached the sea in the last 2000 years, and a debris avalanche emplaced during the 1883 eruption may have initiated a tsunami observed about 80 km east of the volcano at the village of English Bay (Nanwalek) on the coast of the southern Kenai Peninsula. By analogy with the 1883 event, previous studies concluded that tsunamis could have been generated many times in the past. If so, geological evidence of tsunamis, such as tsunami deposits on land, should be found in the area around Augustine Island. Paradoxically, unequivocal evidence for tsunami inundation has been found. Augustine Volcano is the most historically active volcano in the Cook Inlet region and a future tsunami from the volcano would have devastating consequences to villages, towns, oil-production facilities, and the fishing industry, especially if it occurred at high tide (the tidal range in this area is about 5 m). Numerical simulation experiments of tsunami generation, propagation and inundation using a subaerial debris avalanche source at Augustine volcano indicate only modest wave generation because of the shallow water surrounding the volcano (maximum water depth about 25 m). Lahar flows produced during eruptions at snow and ice clad volcanoes in the Aleutian arc also deliver copious amounts of sediment to the sea. These flows only rarely transform to subaqueous debris flows that may become tsunamigenic. However, the accumulation of loose, unconsolidated sediment on the continental shelf may lead to subaqueous debris flows and landslides if these deposits become mobilized by large earthquakes. Tsunamis produced by this mechanism could potentially reach coastlines all along the Pacific Rim. Finally, recent work in the western Aleutian Islands indicates that many of the island volcanoes in this area have experienced large-scale flank collapse. Because these volcanoes are surrounded by deep water, the tsunami hazard associated with a future sector collapse could be significant.

Rapid Determination of Appropriate Source Models for Tsunami Early Warning using a Depth Dependent Rigidity Curve: Method and Numerical Tests

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tanioka, Y.; Miranda, G. J. A.; Gusman, A. R.

2017-12-01

Recently, tsunami early warning technique has been improved using tsunami waveforms observed at the ocean bottom pressure gauges such as NOAA DART system or DONET and S-NET systems in Japan. However, for tsunami early warning of near field tsunamis, it is essential to determine appropriate source models using seismological analysis before large tsunamis hit the coast, especially for tsunami earthquakes which generated significantly large tsunamis. In this paper, we develop a technique to determine appropriate source models from which appropriate tsunami inundation along the coast can be numerically computed The technique is tested for four large earthquakes, the 1992 Nicaragua tsunami earthquake (Mw7.7), the 2001 El Salvador earthquake (Mw7.7), the 2004 El Astillero earthquake (Mw7.0), and the 2012 El Salvador-Nicaragua earthquake (Mw7.3), which occurred off Central America. In this study, fault parameters were estimated from the W-phase inversion, then the fault length and width were determined from scaling relationships. At first, the slip amount was calculated from the seismic moment with a constant rigidity of 3.5 x 10**10N/m2. The tsunami numerical simulation was carried out and compared with the observed tsunami. For the 1992 Nicaragua tsunami earthquake, the computed tsunami was much smaller than the observed one. For the 2004 El Astillero earthquake, the computed tsunami was overestimated. In order to solve this problem, we constructed a depth dependent rigidity curve, similar to suggested by Bilek and Lay (1999). The curve with a central depth estimated by the W-phase inversion was used to calculate the slip amount of the fault model. Using those new slip amounts, tsunami numerical simulation was carried out again. Then, the observed tsunami heights, run-up heights, and inundation areas for the 1992 Nicaragua tsunami earthquake were well explained by the computed one. The other tsunamis from the other three earthquakes were also reasonably well explained by the computed ones. Therefore, our technique using a depth dependent rigidity curve is worked to estimate an appropriate fault model which reproduces tsunami heights near the coast in Central America. The technique may be worked in the other subduction zones by finding a depth dependent rigidity curve in that particular subduction zone.

GPS water level measurements for Indonesia's Tsunami Early Warning System

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schöne, T.; Pandoe, W.; Mudita, I.; Roemer, S.; Illigner, J.; Zech, C.; Galas, R.

2011-03-01

On Boxing Day 2004, a severe tsunami was generated by a strong earthquake in Northern Sumatra causing a large number of casualties. At this time, neither an offshore buoy network was in place to measure tsunami waves, nor a system to disseminate tsunami warnings to local governmental entities. Since then, buoys have been developed by Indonesia and Germany, complemented by NOAA's Deep-ocean Assessment and Reporting of Tsunamis (DART) buoys, and have been moored offshore Sumatra and Java. The suite of sensors for offshore tsunami detection in Indonesia has been advanced by adding GPS technology for water level measurements. The usage of GPS buoys in tsunami warning systems is a relatively new approach. The concept of the German Indonesian Tsunami Early Warning System (GITEWS) (Rudloff et al., 2009) combines GPS technology and ocean bottom pressure (OBP) measurements. Especially for near-field installations where the seismic noise may deteriorate the OBP data, GPS-derived sea level heights provide additional information. The GPS buoy technology is precise enough to detect medium to large tsunamis of amplitudes larger than 10 cm. The analysis presented here suggests that for about 68% of the time, tsunamis larger than 5 cm may be detectable.

New Tsunami Forecast Tools for the French Polynesia Tsunami Warning System

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Clément, Joël; Reymond, Dominique

2015-03-01

This paper presents the tsunami warning tools, which are used for the estimation of the seismic source parameters. These tools are grouped under a method called Preliminary Determination of Focal Mechanism_2 ( PDFM2), that has been developed at the French Polynesia Warning Center, in the framework of the system, as a plug-in concept. The first tool determines the seismic moment and the focal geometry (strike, dip, and slip), and the second tool identifies the "tsunami earthquakes" (earthquakes that cause much bigger tsunamis than their magnitude would imply). In a tsunami warning operation, initial assessment of the tsunami potential is based on location and magnitude. The usual quick magnitude methods which use waves, work fine for smaller earthquakes. For major earthquakes these methods drastically underestimate the magnitude and its tsunami potential because the radiated energy shifts to the longer period waves. Since French Polynesia is located far away from the subduction zones of the Pacific rim, the tsunami threat is not imminent, and this luxury of time allows to use the long period surface wave data to determine the true size of a major earthquake. The source inversion method presented in this paper uses a combination of surface waves amplitude spectra and P wave first motions. The advantage of using long period surface data is that there is a much more accurate determination of earthquake size, and the advantage of using P wave first motion is to have a better constrain of the focal geometry than using the surface waves alone. The method routinely gives stable results at minutes, with being the origin time of an earthquake. Our results are then compared to the Global Centroid Moment Tensor catalog for validating both the seismic moment and the source geometry. The second tool discussed in this paper is the slowness parameter and is the energy-to-moment ratio. It has been used to identify tsunami earthquakes, which are characterized by having unusual slow rupture velocity and release seismic energy that has been shifted to longer periods and, therefore, have low values. The slow rupture velocity would indicate weaker material and bigger uplift and, thus, bigger tsunami potential. The use of the slowness parameter is an efficient tool for monitoring the near real-time identification of tsunami earthquakes.

Seismic and tsunami hazard in Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands

USGS Publications Warehouse

Dillon, William P.; Frankel, Arthur D.; Mueller, Charles S.; Rodriguez, Rafael W.; ten Brink, Uri S.

1999-01-01

Executive SummaryPuerto Rico and the Virgin Islands are located at an active plate boundary between the North American plate and the northeast corner of the Caribbean plate. The region was subject in historical times to large magnitude earthquakes and devastating tsunamis. A major downward tilt of the sea floor north of Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands, large submarine rockslides, and an unusually large negative gravity anomaly are also indicative of a tectonically active region. Scientists have so far failed to explain the deformation of this region in a coherent and predictable picture, such as in California, and this has hampered their ability to assess seismic and tsunami hazards in the region. The NE corner of the Caribbean is unique among the seismically-active regions of the United States in that it is mostly covered by water. This fact presents an additional challenge for seismic and tsunami hazard assessment and mitigation.The workshop, convened in San Juan on March 23-24, 1999, was "historic" in that it brought together for the first time a broad spectrum of scientists, engineers, and public and private sector officials who deal with such diverse questions as tectonic models, probabilistic assessment of seismic hazard, prediction of tsunami runup, strong ground motion, building codes, stability of man-made structures, and the public’s preparedness for natural disasters. It was an opportunity for all the participants to find out how their own activity fit into the broad picture of science and how it aids society in hazard assessment and mitigation. In addition, the workshop was offered as a continuing education course at the Colegio de Ingenieros y Agrimensores de Puerto Rico, which assured a rapid dissemination of the results to the local community. A news conference which took place during the workshop alerted the public to the efforts of the USGS, other Federal agencies, the Commonwealth of Puerto Rico, universities and the private sector.During the first day of the workshop, participants from universities, federal institutions, and consulting firms in Puerto Rico, the Virgin Islands, the continental U.S., Dominican Republic, and Europe reviewed the present state of knowledge including a review and discussion of present plate models, recent GPS and seismic reflection data, seismicity, paleoseismology, and tsunamis. The state of earthquake/tsunami studies in Puerto Rico was presented by several faculty members from the University of Puerto Rico at Mayaguez. A preliminary seismic hazard map was presented by the USGS and previous hazard maps and economic loss assessments were considered. During the second day, the participants divided into working groups and prepared specific recommendations for future activities in the region along the six following topics below. Highlights of these recommended activities are:Marine geology and geophysics – Acquire deep-penetration seismic reflection and refraction data, deploy temporary ocean bottom seismometer arrays to record earthquakes, collect high-resolution multibeam bathymetry and side scan sonar data of the region, and in particular, the near shore region, and conduct focussed high-resolution seismic studies around faults. Determine slip rates of specific offshore faults. Assemble a GIS database for available marine geological and geophysical data.Paleoseismology and active faults - Field reconnaissance aimed at identifying Quaternary faults and determining their paleoseismic chronology and slip rates, as well as identifying and dating paleoliquefaction features from large earthquakes. Quaternary mapping of marine terraces, fluvial terraces and basins, beach ridges, etc., to establish framework for understanding neotectonic deformation of the island. Interpretation of aerial photography to identify possible Quaternary faults.Earthquake seismology – Determine an empirical seismic attenuation function using observations from local seismic networks and recently-installed broad-band stations. Evaluate existing earthquake catalogs from local networks and regional stations, complete the catalogs. Transcribe the pre-1991 network data from 9-track tape onto more stable archival media. Calibrate instruments of local networks. Use GPS measurement to constrain deformation rates used in seismic-hazard maps.Engineering – Prepare liquefaction susceptibility maps for the urban areas. Update and improve databases for types of site conditions. Collect site effect observations and near-surface geophysical measurements for future local (urban-area) hazard maps. Expand the number of instruments in the strong motion program. Develop fragility curves for Puerto Rico construction types and details, and carry out laboratory testing on selected types of mass-produced construction. Consider tsunami design in shoreline construction projects.Tsunami hazard - Extract tsunami observations from archives and develop a Caribbean historical tsunami database. Analyze prehistoric tsunami deposits. Collect accurate, up-to-date, near-shore topography and bathymetry for accurate inundation models. Prepare tsunami flooding and evacuation maps. Establish a Caribbean Tsunami Warning System for Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands. Evaluate local, regional, national, and global seismic networks and equipment, and their role in a tsunami warning system.Societal concerns – Prepare warning messages, protocols, and evacuation routes for earthquake, tsunami, and landslide hazards for Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands. Advocate enforcement of existing building codes. Prepare non-technical hazard assessment maps for political and educational uses. Raise the awareness of potentially affected populations by presentations at elementary schools, by the production of a tsunami video, and by distribution of earthquake preparedness manuals in newspaper supplements. Promote partnerships at state and federal level for long-term earthquake and tsunami hazard mitigation. This partnership should also include the private sector such as the insurance industry, telecommunication companies, and the engineering community.The following reports of the various working groups are the cumulative recommendations of the community of scientists, engineers, and public officials, who participated in the workshop. The list of participants and the workshop’s agenda are given in the appendix.Marine and Geology and Geophysics Working GroupPaleoseismology and Active Faults Working GroupJoint Working Group for Earthquake Seismology and EngineeringTsunami Working GroupSocietal Concerns Working Group

Integration of WERA Ocean Radar into Tsunami Early Warning Systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dzvonkovskaya, Anna; Helzel, Thomas; Kniephoff, Matthias; Petersen, Leif; Weber, Bernd

2016-04-01

High-frequency (HF) ocean radars give a unique capability to deliver simultaneous wide area measurements of ocean surface current fields and sea state parameters far beyond the horizon. The WERA® ocean radar system is a shore-based remote sensing system to monitor ocean surface in near real-time and at all-weather conditions up to 300 km offshore. Tsunami induced surface currents cause increasing orbital velocities comparing to normal oceanographic situation and affect the measured radar spectra. The theoretical approach about tsunami influence on radar spectra showed that a tsunami wave train generates a specific unusual pattern in the HF radar spectra. While the tsunami wave is approaching the beach, the surface current pattern changes slightly in deep water and significantly in the shelf area as it was shown in theoretical considerations and later proved during the 2011 Japan tsunami. These observed tsunami signatures showed that the velocity of tsunami currents depended on a tsunami wave height and bathymetry. The HF ocean radar doesn't measure the approaching wave height of a tsunami; however, it can resolve the surface current velocity signature, which is generated when tsunami reaches the shelf edge. This strong change of the surface current can be detected by a phased-array WERA system in real-time; thus the WERA ocean radar is a valuable tool to support Tsunami Early Warning Systems (TEWS). Based on real tsunami measurements, requirements for the integration of ocean radar systems into TEWS are already defined. The requirements include a high range resolution, a narrow beam directivity of phased-array antennas and an accelerated data update mode to provide a possibility of offshore tsunami detection in real-time. The developed software package allows reconstructing an ocean surface current map of the area observed by HF radar based on the radar power spectrum processing. This fact gives an opportunity to issue an automated tsunami identification message by the WERA radars to TEWS. The radar measurements can be used to confirm a pre-warning and raise a tsunami alert. The output data of WERA processing software can be easily integrated into existing TEWS due to flexible data format, fast update rate and quality control of measurements. The archived radar data can be used for further hazard analysis and research purposes. The newly launched Tsunami Warning Center in Oman is one of the most sophisticated tsunami warning system world-wide applying a mix of well proven state-of-the-art subsystems. It allows the acquisition of data from many different sensor systems including seismic stations, GNSS, tide gauges, and WERA ocean radars in one acquisition system providing access to all sensor data via a common interface. The TEWS in Oman also integrates measurements of a modern network of HF ocean radars to verify tsunami simulations, which give additional scenario quality information and confirmation to the decision support.

Reexamination of the magnitudes for the 1906 and 1922 Chilean earthquakes using Japanese tsunami amplitudes: Implications for source depth constraints

USGS Publications Warehouse

Carvajal, M.; Cisternas, M.; Gubler, A.; Catalan, P. A.; Winckler, P.; Wesson, Robert L.

2017-01-01

Far-field tsunami records from the Japanese tide gauge network allow the reexamination of the moment magnitudes (Mw) for the 1906 and 1922 Chilean earthquakes, which to date rely on limited information mainly from seismological observations alone. Tide gauges along the Japanese coast provide extensive records of tsunamis triggered by six great (Mw >8) Chilean earthquakes with instrumentally determined moment magnitudes. These tsunami records are used to explore the dependence of tsunami amplitudes in Japan on the parent earthquake magnitude of Chilean origin. Using the resulting regression parameters together with tide gauge amplitudes measured in Japan we estimate apparent moment magnitudes of Mw 8.0–8.2 and Mw8.5–8.6 for the 1906 central and 1922 north-central Chile earthquakes. The large discrepancy of the 1906 magnitude estimated from the tsunami observed in Japan as compared with those previously determined from seismic waves (Ms 8.4) suggests a deeper than average source with reduced tsunami excitation. A deep dislocation along the Chilean megathrust would favor uplift of the coast rather than beneath the sea, giving rise to a smaller tsunami and producing effects consistent with those observed in 1906. The 1922 magnitude inferred from far-field tsunami amplitudes appear to better explain the large extent of damage and the destructive tsunami that were locally observed following the earthquake than the lower seismic magnitudes (Ms 8.3) that were likely affected by the well-known saturation effects. Thus, a repeat of the large 1922 earthquake poses seismic and tsunami hazards in a region identified as a mature seismic gap.

When is a Tsunami a Mega-Tsunami?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chague-Goff, C.; Goff, J. R.; Terry, J. P.; Goto, K.

2014-12-01

The 2004 Indian Ocean Tsunami is commonly called a mega-tsunami, and this attribute has also been linked to the 2011 Tohoku-oki tsunami. However, since this term was first coined in the early 1990's there have been very few attempts to define it. As such it has been applied in a rather arbitrary fashion to a number of tsunami characteristics, such as wave height or amplitude at both the source and at distant locations, run-up height, geographical extent and impact. The first use of the term is related to a tsunami generated by a large bolide impact and indeed it seems entirely appropriate that the term should be used for such rare events on geological timescales. However, probably as a result of media-driven hyperbole, scientists have used this term at least twice in the last decade, which is hardly a significant portion of the geological timescale. It therefore seems reasonable to suggest that these recent unexpectedly large events do not fall in the category of mega-tsunami but into a category of exceptional events within historical experience and local perspective. The use of the term mega-tsunami over the past 14 years is discussed and a definition is provided that marks the relative uniqueness of these events and a new term, appropriately Japanese in origin, namely that of souteigai-tsunami, is proposed. Examples of these tsunamis will be provided.

Source Mechanism of the November 27, 1945 Tsunami in the Makran Subduction Zone

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Heidarzadeh, M.; Satake, K.

2011-12-01

We study the source of the Makran tsunami of November 27, 1945 using newly-available tide gauge data from this large tsunami. Makran subduction zone at the northwestern Indian Ocean is the result of northward subduction of the Arabian plate beneath the Eurasian one at an approximate rate of 2 cm/year. Makran was the site of a large tsunamigenic earthquake in November 1945 (Mw 8.1) which caused widespread destruction as well as a death toll of about 4000 people at the coastal areas of the northwestern Indian Ocean. Although Makran experienced at least several large tsunamigenic earthquakes in the past several hundred years, the 1945 event is the only instrumentally-recorded tsunamigenic earthquake in the region, thus it is an important event in view of tsunami hazard assessment in the region. However, the source of this tsunami was poorly studied in the past as no tide gauge data was available for this tsunami to verify the tsunami source. In this study, we use two tide gauge data for the November 27, 1945 tsunami recorded at Mumbai and Karachi at approximate distances of 1100 and 350 km, respectively, away from the epicenter to constrain the tsunami source. Besides the two tide gauge data, that were recently published by Neetu et al. (2011, Natural Hazards), some reports about the arrival times and wave heights of tsunami at different locations both in the near-field (e.g., Pasni and Ormara) and far-field (e.g., Seychelles) are available which will be used to further constrain the source. In addition, the source mechanism of the 27 November 1945 tsunami determined using seismic data will be used as the start point for this study. Several reports indicate that a secondary source triggered by the main shock possibly contributed to the main plate boundary rupture during this large interplate earthquake, e.g., landslides or splay faults. For example, a runup height up to 12 m was reported in Pasni, the nearest coast to the tsunami source, which seems too hard to be linked with a plate boundary event with a maximum slip of around 6 m. Therefore, possible contribution of secondary tsunami sources also will be examined.

Mega Tsunamis of the World Ocean and Their Implication for the Tsunami Hazard Assessment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gusiakov, V. K.

2014-12-01

Mega tsunamis are the strongest tsunamigenic events of tectonic origin that are characterized by run-up heights up to 40-50 m measured along a considerable part of the coastline (up to 1000 km). One of the most important features of mega-tsunamis is their ability to cross the entire oceanic basin and to cause an essential damage to its opposite coast. Another important feature is their ability to penetrate into the marginal seas (like the Sea of Okhotsk, the Bering Sea) and cause dangerous water level oscillations along the parts of the coast, which are largely protected by island arcs against the impact of the strongest regional tsunamis. Among all known historical tsunamis (nearly 2250 events during the last 4000 years) they represent only a small fraction (less than 1%) however they are responsible for more than half the total tsunami fatalities and a considerable part of the overall tsunami damage. The source of all known mega tsunamis is subduction submarine earthquakes with magnitude 9.0 or higher having a return period from 200-300 years to 1000-1200 years. The paper presents a list of 15 mega tsunami events identified so far in historical catalogs with their basic source parameters, near-field and far-field impact effects and their generation and propagation features. The far-field impact of mega tsunamis is largely controlled by location and orientation of their earthquake source as well as by deep ocean bathymetry features. We also discuss the problem of the long-term tsunami hazard assessment when the occurrence of mega tsunamis is taken into account.

The 25 October 2010 Mentawai tsunami earthquake, from real-time discriminants, finite-fault rupture, and tsunami excitation

USGS Publications Warehouse

Newman, Andrew V.; Hayes, Gavin P.; Wei, Yong; Convers, Jaime

2011-01-01

The moment magnitude 7.8 earthquake that struck offshore the Mentawai islands in western Indonesia on 25 October 2010 created a locally large tsunami that caused more than 400 human causalities. We identify this earthquake as a rare slow-source tsunami earthquake based on: 1) disproportionately large tsunami waves; 2) excessive rupture duration near 125 s; 3) predominantly shallow, near-trench slip determined through finite-fault modeling; and 4) deficiencies in energy-to-moment and energy-to-duration-cubed ratios, the latter in near-real time. We detail the real-time solutions that identified the slow-nature of this event, and evaluate how regional reductions in crustal rigidity along the shallow trench as determined by reduced rupture velocity contributed to increased slip, causing the 5–9 m local tsunami runup and observed transoceanic wave heights observed 1600 km to the southeast.

The 25 October 2010 Mentawai tsunami earthquake, from real-time discriminants, finite-fault rupture, and tsunami excitation

USGS Publications Warehouse

Newman, A.V.; Hayes, G.; Wei, Y.; Convers, J.

2011-01-01

The moment magnitude 7.8 earthquake that struck offshore the Mentawai islands in western Indonesia on 25 October 2010 created a locally large tsunami that caused more than 400 human causalities. We identify this earthquake as a rare slow-source tsunami earthquake based on: 1) disproportionately large tsunami waves; 2) excessive rupture duration near 125 s; 3) predominantly shallow, near-trench slip determined through finite-fault modeling; and 4) deficiencies in energy-to-moment and energy-to-duration-cubed ratios, the latter in near-real time. We detail the real-time solutions that identified the slow-nature of this event, and evaluate how regional reductions in crustal rigidity along the shallow trench as determined by reduced rupture velocity contributed to increased slip, causing the 5-9 m local tsunami runup and observed transoceanic wave heights observed 1600 km to the southeast. Copyright 2011 by the American Geophysical Union.

Development of a GNSS-Enhanced Tsunami Early Warning System

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bawden, G. W.; Melbourne, T. I.; Bock, Y.; Song, Y. T.; Komjathy, A.

2015-12-01

The past decade has witnessed a terrible loss of life and economic disruption caused by large earthquakes and resultant tsunamis impacting coastal communities and infrastructure across the Indo-Pacific region. NASA has funded the early development of a prototype real-time Global Navigation Satellite System (RT-GNSS) based rapid earthquake and tsunami early warning (GNSS-TEW) system that may be used to enhance seismic tsunami early warning systems for large earthquakes. This prototype GNSS-TEW system geodetically estimates fault parameters (earthquake magnitude, location, strike, dip, and slip magnitude/direction on a gridded fault plane both along strike and at depth) and tsunami source parameters (seafloor displacement, tsunami energy scale, and 3D tsunami initials) within minutes after the mainshock based on dynamic numerical inversions/regressions of the real-time measured displacements within a spatially distributed real-time GNSS network(s) spanning the epicentral region. It is also possible to measure fluctuations in the ionosphere's total electron content (TEC) in the RT-GNSS data caused by the pressure wave from the tsunami. This TEC approach can detect if a tsunami has been triggered by an earthquake, track its waves as they propagate through the oceanic basins, and provide upwards of 45 minutes early warning. These combined real-time geodetic approaches will very quickly address a number of important questions in the immediate minutes following a major earthquake: How big was the earthquake and what are its fault parameters? Could the earthquake have produced a tsunami and was a tsunami generated?

Long-term statistics of extreme tsunami height at Crescent City

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dong, Sheng; Zhai, Jinjin; Tao, Shanshan

2017-06-01

Historically, Crescent City is one of the most vulnerable communities impacted by tsunamis along the west coast of the United States, largely attributed to its offshore geography. Trans-ocean tsunamis usually produce large wave runup at Crescent Harbor resulting in catastrophic damages, property loss and human death. How to determine the return values of tsunami height using relatively short-term observation data is of great significance to assess the tsunami hazards and improve engineering design along the coast of Crescent City. In the present study, the extreme tsunami heights observed along the coast of Crescent City from 1938 to 2015 are fitted using six different probabilistic distributions, namely, the Gumbel distribution, the Weibull distribution, the maximum entropy distribution, the lognormal distribution, the generalized extreme value distribution and the generalized Pareto distribution. The maximum likelihood method is applied to estimate the parameters of all above distributions. Both Kolmogorov-Smirnov test and root mean square error method are utilized for goodness-of-fit test and the better fitting distribution is selected. Assuming that the occurrence frequency of tsunami in each year follows the Poisson distribution, the Poisson compound extreme value distribution can be used to fit the annual maximum tsunami amplitude, and then the point and interval estimations of return tsunami heights are calculated for structural design. The results show that the Poisson compound extreme value distribution fits tsunami heights very well and is suitable to determine the return tsunami heights for coastal disaster prevention.

Survey of the July 17, 2006 Central Javan tsunami reveals 21m runup heights

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fritz, H.; Goff, J.; Harbitz, C.; McAdoo, B.; Moore, A.; Latief, H.; Kalligeris, N.; Kodjo, W.; Uslu, B.; Titov, V.; Synolakis, C.

2006-12-01

The Monday, July 17, 2006 Central Javan 7.7 earthquake triggered a substantial tsunami that killed 600 people along a 200km stretch of coastline. The earthquake was not reported felt along the coastline. While there was a warning issued by the PTWC, it did not trigger an evacuation warning (Synolakis, 2006). The Indian Ocean Tsunami Warning System announced by UNESCO as operational in a press release two weeks before the event did not function as promised. There were no seismic recordings transmitted to the PTWC, and two German tsunameter buoys had broken off their moorings and were not operational. Lifeguards along a tourist beach reported that while the observed the harbinger shoreline recession, they attributed to exteme storm waves that were pounding the beaches that day. Had the tsunami struck on the preceding Sunday, instead of Monday, the death toll would had been far higher. The International Tsunami Survey Team (ITST) surveyed the coastline measuring runup, inundation, flow depths and sediment deposition, with standard methods (Synolakis and Okal, 2004). Runup values ranged up to 21m with several readings over 10m, while sand sheets up to 15cm were deposited. The parent earthquake was similar, albeit of smaller magnitude, to the 1994 East Javan tsunami, which struck about 200km east (Synolakis, et al, 1995) and reached a maximum of 11m runup height only at one location on steep cliffs. The unusual distribution of runup heights, and the pronounced extreme values near Nusa Kambangan, suggest a local coseismic landslide may have triggered an additional tsunami (Okal and Synolakis, 2005). The ITST observed that many coastal villages were completely abandoned after the tsunami, even in locales where there were no casualties. Whether residents will return is uncertain, but it is clear that an education campaign in tsunami hazard mitigation is urgently needed. In the aftermath of the tsunami, the Government of Indonesia enforced urgent emergency preparedness measures, including sirens, identification of rapid evacuation routes, and emergency drills, which were under way some locations the team visited. Synolakis, C.E., What went wrong Wall Street Journal. p. 12, July 25, 2006. Synolakis, C.E., and E.A. Okal, 1992--2002: Perspective on a decade of post-tsunami surveys, in: Tsunamis: Case studies, K. Satake (ed), Adv. Natur. Technol. Hazards, 23 1--30, 2005. Okal, E.A., and Synolakis, C.E., Source discriminants for nearfield tsunamis, Geophysical Journal International, 158, 899?-912, 2004. Synolakis, C.E., Imamura, F., Tsuji, Y., Matsutomi, S., Tinti, B., Cook, B., and Ushman, M. Damage, Conditions of East Java tsunami of 1994 analyzed, EOS, 76, (26), 257 and 261-?262, 1995.

Uncertainty in tsunami sediment transport modeling

USGS Publications Warehouse

Jaffe, Bruce E.; Goto, Kazuhisa; Sugawara, Daisuke; Gelfenbaum, Guy R.; La Selle, SeanPaul M.

2016-01-01

Erosion and deposition from tsunamis record information about tsunami hydrodynamics and size that can be interpreted to improve tsunami hazard assessment. We explore sources and methods for quantifying uncertainty in tsunami sediment transport modeling. Uncertainty varies with tsunami, study site, available input data, sediment grain size, and model. Although uncertainty has the potential to be large, published case studies indicate that both forward and inverse tsunami sediment transport models perform well enough to be useful for deciphering tsunami characteristics, including size, from deposits. New techniques for quantifying uncertainty, such as Ensemble Kalman Filtering inversion, and more rigorous reporting of uncertainties will advance the science of tsunami sediment transport modeling. Uncertainty may be decreased with additional laboratory studies that increase our understanding of the semi-empirical parameters and physics of tsunami sediment transport, standardized benchmark tests to assess model performance, and development of hybrid modeling approaches to exploit the strengths of forward and inverse models.

Geologic Evidence of Earthquakes and Tsunamis in the Mexican Subduction zone - Guerrero

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ramirez-Herrera, M.; Lagos, M.; Hutchinson, I.; Ruiz-Fernández, A.; Machain, M.; Caballero, M.; Rangel, V.; Nava, H.; Corona, N.; Bautista, F.; Kostoglodov, V.; Goguitchaichrili, A.; Morales, J.; Quintana, P.

2010-12-01

A study of large historic and prehistoric earthquakes and their tsunamis using a multiproxy approach (geomorphic features, sediment deposits, microfossils, sediment geochemistry and more recently the use of magnetic properties) has provided valuable information in the assessment of earthquake and tsunami record. The Pacific coast of Mexico is located over the active subduction zone (~1000 km) that has experienced numerous large magnitude earthquakes in historical time (Mw>7.5), and more than 50 documented tsunamis since 1732. Geomorphic and stratigraphic studies through test pits at 13 sites on the Guerrero coast reveal distinct stratigraphic changes with depth, indicating clear rapid change in depositional environments over time. Microfossil ecology (diatoms and foraminifera), sediment geochemistry (concentration increment in elements such as Sr, Ba, Ca, P, Si, K), stratigraphy, sediment magnetic properties (magnetic susceptibility anisotropy for the first time applied in tsunami deposits identification) and other proxies are indicative of sudden changes in land level and tsunami deposits. Buried evidence of liquefaction confirms the occurrence of a large earthquake at Barra de Potosi and Ixtapa, Guerrero. Preliminary 210Pb analysis suggests a sedimentation rate of ca. 0.1±0.01 cm/year and an estimated minimum age of ~ 100 years (maximum age at ca. 450 years?) for the most recent earthquake. At least three large events can be recognized by sharp contacts and sand layers in the sedimentary record. Ongoing C14, OSL and 210Pb dating will constrain the timing of these events. Deposits from three marine inwash events (tsunamis) dating from the past 4600 years have been identified on the Guerrero coast. A near-surface sand bed with a sharp basal contact overlying soil at sites near Ixtapa and Barra de Potosi most probably marks the tsunami following the 1985 Mw 8.2 earthquake. Interviews with Barra de Potosi fishermen and locals corroborate that these sites were inundated by this tsunami.

Improving tsunami resiliency: California's Tsunami Policy Working Group

USGS Publications Warehouse

Real, Charles R.; Johnson, Laurie; Jones, Lucile M.; Ross, Stephanie L.; Kontar, Y.A.; Santiago-Fandiño, V.; Takahashi, T.

2014-01-01

California has established a Tsunami Policy Working Group to facilitate development of policy recommendations for tsunami hazard mitigation. The Tsunami Policy Working Group brings together government and industry specialists from diverse fields including tsunami, seismic, and flood hazards, local and regional planning, structural engineering, natural hazard policy, and coastal engineering. The group is acting on findings from two parallel efforts: The USGS SAFRR Tsunami Scenario project, a comprehensive impact analysis of a large credible tsunami originating from an M 9.1 earthquake in the Aleutian Islands Subduction Zone striking California’s coastline, and the State’s Tsunami Preparedness and Hazard Mitigation Program. The unique dual-track approach provides a comprehensive assessment of vulnerability and risk within which the policy group can identify gaps and issues in current tsunami hazard mitigation and risk reduction, make recommendations that will help eliminate these impediments, and provide advice that will assist development and implementation of effective tsunami hazard risk communication products to improve community resiliency.

First application of tsunami back-projection and source inversion for the 2012 Haida Gwaii earthquake using tsunami data recorded on a dense array of seafloor pressure gauges

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gusman, A. R.; Satake, K.; Sheehan, A. F.; Mulia, I. E.; Heidarzadeh, M.; Maeda, T.

2015-12-01

Adaption of absolute or differential pressure gauges (APG or DPG) to Ocean Bottom Seismometers has provided the opportunity to study tsunamis. Recently we extracted tsunami waveforms of the 28 October 2012 Haida Gwaii earthquake recoded by the APG and DPG of Cascadia Initiative program (Sheehan et al., 2015, SRL). We applied such dense tsunami observations (48 stations) together with other records from DARTs (9 stations) to characterize the tsunami source. This study is the first study that used such a large number of offshore tsunami records for earthquake source study. Conventionally the curves of tsunami travel times are drawn backward from station locations to estimate the tsunami source region. Here we propose a more advanced technique called tsunami back-projection to estimate the source region. Our image produced by tsunami back-projection has the largest value or tsunami centroid that is very close to the epicenter and above the Queen Charlotte transform fault (QCF), whereas the negative values are mostly located east of Haida Gwaii in the Hecate Strait. By using tsunami back-projection we avoid picking initial tsunami phase which is a necessary step in the conventional method that is rather subjective. The slip distribution of the 2012 Haida Gwaii earthquake estimated by tsunami waveform inversion shows large slip near the trench (4-5 m) and also on a plate interface southeast the epicenter (3-4 m) below QCF. From the slip distribution, the calculated seismic moment is 5.4 × 1020 N m (Mw 7.8). The steep bathymetry offshore Haida Gwaii and the horizontal movement caused by the earthquake possibly affects the sea surface deformation. The potential tsunami energy calculated from the sea-surface deformation of pure faulting is 2.20 × 1013 J, while that from the bathymetry effect is 0.12 × 1013 J or about 5% of the total potential energy. The significant deformation above the steep slope is confirmed by another tsunami inversion that disregards fault parameters.

Did a slump source cause the 1929 Grand Banks tsunami?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Løvholt, F.; Schulten, I.; Mosher, D.; Harbitz, C. B.; Krastel, S.

2017-12-01

On November 18, 1929, a Mw 7.2 earthquake occurred beneath the upper Laurentian Fan, south of Newfoundland. The earthquake displaced about 100 km3 of sediment volume that rapidly evolved into a turbidity current revealed by a series of successive telecommunication cable breaks. A tsunami with fatal consequences along the south coast of Newfoundland also resulted. This tsunami is attributed to sediment mass failure as no seafloor displacement due to the earthquake is observed or expected. Although sidescan sonar, sub-bottom profiler and modern multibeam data show surficial sediment slumping and translational slide activity in the upper part of the slope, no major headscarp, single evacuation area or large mass transport deposit are observed. Sediment mass failure has been interpreted as broadly distributed and shallow, likely occurring in a retrogressive fashion. The question remained, therefore, as to how such complex failure kinematics could generate a tsunami. The Grand Banks tsunami is the only landslide tsunami for which traces are found at transoceanic distances. Despite being a landmark event, only a couple of attempts to model the tsunami exist. None of these have been able to match tsunami observations. Recently acquired seismic reflection data suggest that rotational slumping of a thick sediment mass ( 500 m) on the St. Pierre Slope may have occurred, causing seafloor displacements (fault traces) up to 100 m in height. The previously mapped surficial failures were a consequence of slumping of the thicker mass. Here, we simulate tsunami generation using the new geophysical information to construct different tsunamigenic slump sources. In addition, we undertake simulations assuming a flowing surficial landslide. The numerical simulations shows that its large and rapid vertical displacements render the slump source more tsunamigenic than the alternative surficial landslide. The simulations using the slump source roughly complies with observations of large run-ups on the Burin Peninsula along the south coast of Newfoundland, in contrast to previous modelling attempts. As the source extensions complies with new observations of rotational failures at the slope, the simulations suggest that a slump source is the most likely explanation for the large tsunami observations due to the Grand Banks event.

Source parameters controlling the generation and propagation of potential local tsunamis along the cascadia margin

USGS Publications Warehouse

Geist, E.; Yoshioka, S.

1996-01-01

The largest uncertainty in assessing hazards from local tsunamis along the Cascadia margin is estimating the possible earthquake source parameters. We investigate which source parameters exert the largest influence on tsunami generation and determine how each parameter affects the amplitude of the local tsunami. The following source parameters were analyzed: (1) type of faulting characteristic of the Cascadia subduction zone, (2) amount of slip during rupture, (3) slip orientation, (4) duration of rupture, (5) physical properties of the accretionary wedge, and (6) influence of secondary faulting. The effect of each of these source parameters on the quasi-static displacement of the ocean floor is determined by using elastic three-dimensional, finite-element models. The propagation of the resulting tsunami is modeled both near the coastline using the two-dimensional (x-t) Peregrine equations that includes the effects of dispersion and near the source using the three-dimensional (x-y-t) linear long-wave equations. The source parameters that have the largest influence on local tsunami excitation are the shallowness of rupture and the amount of slip. In addition, the orientation of slip has a large effect on the directivity of the tsunami, especially for shallow dipping faults, which consequently has a direct influence on the length of coastline inundated by the tsunami. Duration of rupture, physical properties of the accretionary wedge, and secondary faulting all affect the excitation of tsunamis but to a lesser extent than the shallowness of rupture and the amount and orientation of slip. Assessment of the severity of the local tsunami hazard should take into account that relatively large tsunamis can be generated from anomalous 'tsunami earthquakes' that rupture within the accretionary wedge in comparison to interplate thrust earthquakes of similar magnitude. ?? 1996 Kluwer Academic Publishers.

U.S. Tsunami Information technology (TIM) Modernization: Performance Assessment of Tsunamigenic Earthquake Discrimination System

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hagerty, M. T.; Lomax, A.; Hellman, S. B.; Whitmore, P.; Weinstein, S.; Hirshorn, B. F.; Knight, W. R.

2015-12-01

Tsunami warning centers must rapidly decide whether an earthquake is likely to generate a destructive tsunami in order to issue a tsunami warning quickly after a large event. For very large events (Mw > 8 or so), magnitude and location alone are sufficient to warrant an alert. However, for events of smaller magnitude (e.g., Mw ~ 7.5), particularly for so-called "tsunami earthquakes", magnitude alone is insufficient to issue an alert and other measurements must be rapidly made and used to assess tsunamigenic potential. The Tsunami Information technology Modernization (TIM) is a National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) project to update and standardize the earthquake and tsunami monitoring systems currently employed at the U.S. Tsunami Warning Centers in Ewa Beach, Hawaii (PTWC) and Palmer, Alaska (NTWC). We (ISTI) are responsible for implementing the seismic monitoring components in this new system, including real-time seismic data collection and seismic processing. The seismic data processor includes a variety of methods aimed at real-time discrimination of tsunamigenic events, including: Mwp, Me, slowness (Theta), W-phase, mantle magnitude (Mm), array processing and finite-fault inversion. In addition, it contains the ability to designate earthquake scenarios and play the resulting synthetic seismograms through the processing system. Thus, it is also a convenient tool that integrates research and monitoring and may be used to calibrate and tune the real-time monitoring system. Here we show results of the automated processing system for a large dataset of subduction zone earthquakes containing recent tsunami earthquakes and we examine the accuracy of the various discrimation methods and discuss issues related to their successful real-time application.

Tsunami hazard assessment along the U. S. East Coast

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tajalli Bakhsh, T.; Grilli, S. T.; Harris, J. C.; Kirby, J. T.; Shi, F.; Tehranirad, B.

2012-12-01

In 2005, the National Tsunami Hazard Mitigation Program (NTHMP) was tasked by Congress to develop tsunami inundation maps for the entire US coastline. This work provides an overview of the modeling work related to the development inundation maps along the US east coast. In this region the paucity of historical tsunami records and lack of paleotsunami observations yields a large uncertainty on the source and magnitude of potential extreme tsunami events, and their related coastal hazard. In the Atlantic Ocean basin significant tsunami hazard may result from far-field earthquakes, such as a repeat of the M8.9 Lisbon 1755 event in the Azores convergence zone, or a hypothetical extreme M9 earthquake in the Puerto Rico Trench (PRT). Additionally, it is believed that a repeat of one of the large historical collapses, identified at the toe of the Cumbre Vieja volcano on La Palma (Canary Islands; i.e., with a maximum volume of 450 km3), could pose a major tsunami hazard to the entire US east coast. Finally, in the near-field, large submarine mass failure (SMF) scars have been mapped by USGS, particularly North of the Carolinas (e.g., Currituck), which are believed to have caused past tsunamis. Large SMFs can be triggered by moderate seismicity (M7 or so), such as can occur on the east coast. In fact, one of the few historical tsunamis that significantly affected this region was caused by the 1929 Grand Bank underwater slide, which was triggered by a M7.2 earthquake. In this work we identify and parameterize all potential tsunami sources affecting the US east coast, and perform simulations of tsunami generation, propagation, and coastal impact in a series of increasingly resolved nested grids. Following this methodology, tsunami inundation maps are currently being developed for a few of the most affected areas. In simulations, we use a robust and well-validated Fully Nonlinear Boussinesq long-wave model (FUNWAVE-TVD), on Cartesian or spherical grids. Coseismic tsunami sources are modeled using the standard Okada method. For landslide tsunamis, we first generate tsunami sources using a three-dimensional Navier-Stokes model (THETIS or NHWAVE). These models feature all relevant physical processes, such as frequency dispersion (very important for landslide sources), nonlinear wave effects during shoaling, and dissipation by bottom friction and wave breaking (via a shock-capturing TVD algorithm). In modeling coastal hazard from various sources, we find that tsunamigenic SMFs, which are the nearest tsunami sources and can potentially cause highly focused coastal runup, may control tsunami hazard for many east coast communities north of the Carolinas. In many cases, however, we find that a wide shallow continental shelf may cause significant dissipation of the shorter waves caused by SMFs and hence offer some protection. The accurate modeling of the delicate balance between nonlinear and dissipative processes governing such situations is currently being researched and will be the object of a separate presentation. Additionally, considerable efforts are being devoted to properly parameterizing extreme SMFs, which are also the object of collaborative work with geologists and marine geotechnical experts (reported independently).

Historical Tsunami Records on Russian Island, the Sea of Japan

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Razjigaeva, N. G.; Ganzey, L. A.; Grebennikova, T. A.; Arslanov, Kh. A.; Ivanova, E. D.; Ganzey, K. S.; Kharlamov, A. A.

2018-04-01

In this article, we provide data evidencing tsunamis on Russian Island over the last 700 years. Reconstructions are developed based on the analyses of peat bog sections on the coast of Spokoynaya Bay, including layers of tsunami sands. Ancient beach sands under peat were deposited during the final phase of transgression of the Medieval Warm Period. We used data on diatoms and benthic foraminifers to identify the marine origin of the sands. The grain size compositions of the tsunami deposits were used to determine the sources of material carried by the tsunamis. The chronology of historical tsunamis was determined based on the radiocarbon dating of the underlying organic deposits. There was a stated difference between the deposition environments during tsunamis and large storms during the Goni (2015) and Lionrock (2016) typhoons. Tsunami deposits from 1983 and 1993 were found in the upper part of the sections. The inundation of the 1993 tsunami did not exceed 20 m or a height of 0.5 m a.m.s.l. (0.3 above high tide). The more intensive tsunami of 1983 had a run-up of 0.65 m a.m.s.l. and penetrated inland from the shoreline up to 40 m. Sand layer of tsunami 1940 extend in land up to 50 m from the present shoreline. Evidence of six tsunamis was elicited from the peat bog sections, the deposits of which are located 60 m from the modern coastal line. The deposits of strong historic tsunamis in the Japan Sea region in 1833, 1741, 1614 (or 1644), 1448, the XIV-XV century and 1341 were also identified on Russian Island. Their run-ups and inundation distances were also determined. The strong historic tsunamis appeared to be more intensive than those of the XX century, and considering the sea level drop during the Little Ice Age, the inundation distances were as large as 250 m.

Historical Tsunami Records on Russian Island, the Sea of Japan

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Razjigaeva, N. G.; Ganzey, L. A.; Grebennikova, T. A.; Arslanov, Kh. A.; Ivanova, E. D.; Ganzey, K. S.; Kharlamov, A. A.

2018-03-01

In this article, we provide data evidencing tsunamis on Russian Island over the last 700 years. Reconstructions are developed based on the analyses of peat bog sections on the coast of Spokoynaya Bay, including layers of tsunami sands. Ancient beach sands under peat were deposited during the final phase of transgression of the Medieval Warm Period. We used data on diatoms and benthic foraminifers to identify the marine origin of the sands. The grain size compositions of the tsunami deposits were used to determine the sources of material carried by the tsunamis. The chronology of historical tsunamis was determined based on the radiocarbon dating of the underlying organic deposits. There was a stated difference between the deposition environments during tsunamis and large storms during the Goni (2015) and Lionrock (2016) typhoons. Tsunami deposits from 1983 and 1993 were found in the upper part of the sections. The inundation of the 1993 tsunami did not exceed 20 m or a height of 0.5 m a.m.s.l. (0.3 above high tide). The more intensive tsunami of 1983 had a run-up of 0.65 m a.m.s.l. and penetrated inland from the shoreline up to 40 m. Sand layer of tsunami 1940 extend in land up to 50 m from the present shoreline. Evidence of six tsunamis was elicited from the peat bog sections, the deposits of which are located 60 m from the modern coastal line. The deposits of strong historic tsunamis in the Japan Sea region in 1833, 1741, 1614 (or 1644), 1448, the XIV-XV century and 1341 were also identified on Russian Island. Their run-ups and inundation distances were also determined. The strong historic tsunamis appeared to be more intensive than those of the XX century, and considering the sea level drop during the Little Ice Age, the inundation distances were as large as 250 m.

Impacts of the June 23, 2001 Peru Tsunami

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dengler, L.

2001-12-01

The tsunami generated by the June 23, 2001 Peru earthquake caused significant damage to a 20-km long stretch of coastline in the Municipality of Camana, southern Peru. Over 3000 structures were damaged or destroyed and 2000 hectares of farmland flooded and covered with sand. 22 people were killed in the Municipality and 62 were reported missing. All of the casualties were attributed to the tsunami; in Camana the earthquake produced Modified Mercalli Intensities only of VI or VII. The International Tsunami Survey Team (ITST) were in Peru July 5 - 15 and measured inundation, spoke with City, Red Cross, and Health Department officials, and interviewed survivors. The preliminary ITST findings: All eyewitnesses described an initial draw-down that lasted a substantial amount of time (15 minutes or more). The initial positive wave was small, followed by two destructive waves of near similar impact. Observing the water recede was the key to self-evacuation. No one responded to the ground shaking even though all felt the earthquake strongly. Damage was concentrated along a flat coastal beach no higher than 5 m above sea level. The largest waves (5 to 8 meters) produced by this tsunami coincided with the most developed beach area along the southern Peruvian coast. Tsunami waves penetrated 1.2-km inland and damaged or destroyed nearly all of the structures in this zone. Poorly built adobe and infilled wall structures performed very poorly in the tsunami impacted area. The few structures that survived appeared to have deeper foundations and more reinforcing. The most tsunami-vulnerable populations were newcomers to the coast. Most victims were farm workers and domestic summerhouse sitters who had not grown up along the coast and were unaware of tsunami hazards. Economic impacts are likely to last a long time. The main industries in Camana are tourism and agriculture and the tsunami damaged both. While the extent of inundation and the number of structures damaged or destroyed was significant, the number of lives lost was considerably less than during several other recent tsunamis. The difference in casualties is due to several factors: 1) A tsunami-aware coastal population. Most of the people interviewed knew what tsunamis were, recognized the water draw down as a sign of danger and self-evacuated. 2) Time of year. The earthquake and tsunami occurred in winter. The summer resident population of the Camana beach towns increases by 5000 people plus an additional influx of tourists. Had the same earthquake occurred in the summer when the beach discotheques, hotels and cafes were full, casualties could have been orders of magnitude higher. 3) Time of day. The earthquake and tsunami occurred in mid-afternoon. Seeing the water retreat was the key to self-evacuation. Had the earthquake occurred at nighttime, fewer people may have responded. 4) Ambient tide level. The tsunami coincided with a minus 40 cm tide, one of the lowest tides of the year. 5) Initial drawdown of water and period of wave. Even people who were unaware of tsunamis thought the noticeable recession of the water very unusual and had time to reach higher ground.

The destructive 1946 Unimak near-field tsunami: New evidence for a submarine slide source from reprocessed marine geophysical data

USGS Publications Warehouse

von Huene, Roland E.; Kirby, Stephen; Miller, John J.; Dartnell, Peter

2014-01-01

The Mw 8.6 earthquake in 1946 off the Pacific shore of Unimak Island at the end of the Alaska Peninsula generated a far-field tsunami that crossed the Pacific to Antarctica. Its tsunami magnitude, 9.3, is comparable to the 9.1 magnitude of the 2011 Tohoku tsunami. On Unimak Island's Pacific shore, a runup of 42 m destroyed the lighthouse at Scotch Cap. Elsewhere, localized tsunamis with such high runups have been interpreted as caused by large submarine landslides. However, previous to this study, no landslide large enough to generate this runup was found in the area that is limited by the time interval between earthquake shaking and tsunami inundation at Scotch Cap. Reworking of a seismic reflection transect and colocated multibeam bathymetric surveys reveal a landslide block that may explain the 1946 high runup. It is seaward of Scotch Cap on the midslope terrace and within the time-limited area.

Non-seismic tsunamis: filling the forecast gap

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Moore, C. W.; Titov, V. V.; Spillane, M. C.

2015-12-01

Earthquakes are the generation mechanism in over 85% of tsunamis. However, non-seismic tsunamis, including those generated by meteorological events, landslides, volcanoes, and asteroid impacts, can inundate significant area and have a large far-field effect. The current National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) tsunami forecast system falls short in detecting these phenomena. This study attempts to classify the range of effects possible from these non-seismic threats, and to investigate detection methods appropriate for use in a forecast system. Typical observation platforms are assessed, including DART bottom pressure recorders and tide gauges. Other detection paths include atmospheric pressure anomaly algorithms for detecting meteotsunamis and the early identification of asteroids large enough to produce a regional hazard. Real-time assessment of observations for forecast use can provide guidance to mitigate the effects of a non-seismic tsunami.

The 1946 Unimak Tsunami Earthquake Area: revised tectonic structure in reprocessed seismic images and a suspect near field tsunami source

USGS Publications Warehouse

Miller, John J.; von Huene, Roland E.; Ryan, Holly F.

2014-01-01

In 1946 at Unimak Pass, Alaska, a tsunami destroyed the lighthouse at Scotch Cap, Unimak Island, took 159 lives on the Hawaiian Islands, damaged island coastal facilities across the south Pacific, and destroyed a hut in Antarctica. The tsunami magnitude of 9.3 is comparable to the magnitude 9.1 tsunami that devastated the Tohoku coast of Japan in 2011. Both causative earthquake epicenters occurred in shallow reaches of the subduction zone. Contractile tectonism along the Alaska margin presumably generated the far-field tsunami by producing a seafloor elevation change. However, the Scotch Cap lighthouse was destroyed by a near-field tsunami that was probably generated by a coeval large undersea landslide, yet bathymetric surveys showed no fresh large landslide scar. We investigated this problem by reprocessing five seismic lines, presented here as high-resolution graphic images, both uninterpreted and interpreted, and available for the reader to download. In addition, the processed seismic data for each line are available for download as seismic industry-standard SEG-Y files. One line, processed through prestack depth migration, crosses a 10 × 15 kilometer and 800-meter-high hill presumed previously to be basement, but that instead is composed of stratified rock superimposed on the slope sediment. This image and multibeam bathymetry illustrate a slide block that could have sourced the 1946 near-field tsunami because it is positioned within a distance determined by the time between earthquake shaking and the tsunami arrival at Scotch Cap and is consistent with the local extent of high runup of 42 meters along the adjacent Alaskan coast. The Unimak/Scotch Cap margin is structurally similar to the 2011 Tohoku tsunamigenic margin where a large landslide at the trench, coeval with the Tohoku earthquake, has been documented. Further study can improve our understanding of tsunami sources along Alaska’s erosional margins.

Evaluation of tsunami risk in Heraklion city, Crete, Greece, by using GIS methods

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Triantafyllou, Ioanna; Fokaefs, Anna; Novikova, Tatyana; Papadopoulos, Gerasimos A.; Vaitis, Michalis

2016-04-01

The Hellenic Arc is the most active seismotectonic structure in the Mediterranean region. The island of Crete occupies the central segment of the arc which is characterized by high seismic and tsunami activity. Several tsunamis generated by large earthquakes, volcanic eruptions and landslides were reported that hit the capital city of Heraklion in the historical past. We focus our tsunami risk study in the northern coastal area of Crete (ca. 6 km in length and 1 km in maximum width) which includes the western part of the city of Heraklion and a large part of the neighboring municipality of Gazi. The evaluation of tsunami risk included calculations and mapping with QGIS of (1) cost for repairing buildings after tsunami damage, (2) population exposed to tsunami attack, (3) optimum routes and times for evacuation. To calculate the cost for building reparation after a tsunami attack we have determined the tsunami inundation zone in the study area after numerical simulations for extreme tsunami scenarios. The geographical distribution of buildings per building block, obtained from the 2011 census data of the Hellenic Statistical Authority (EL.STAT) and satellite data, was mapped. By applying the SCHEMA Damage Tool we assessed the building vulnerability to tsunamis according to the types of buildings and their expected damage from the hydrodynamic impact. A set of official cost rates varying with the building types and the damage levels, following standards set by the state after the strong damaging earthquakes in Greece in 2014, was applied to calculate the cost of rebuilding or repairing buildings damaged by the tsunami. In the investigation of the population exposed to tsunami inundation we have used the interpolation method to smooth out the population geographical distribution per building block within the inundation zone. Then, the population distribution was correlated with tsunami hydrodynamic parameters in the inundation zone. The last approach of tsunami risk assessment refers to the selection of optimal routes and times needed for evacuation from certain points within the inundation zone to a number of shelters outside the zone. The three different approaches were evaluated as for their overall contribution in the development of a plan for the tsunami risk mitigation. This research is a contribution to the EU-FP7 tsunami research project ASTARTE (Assessment, Strategy And Risk Reduction for Tsunamis in Europe), grant agreement no: 603839, 2013-10-30.

Slip distribution of the 1952 Tokachi-Oki earthquake (M 8.1) along the Kuril Trench deduced from tsunami waveform inversion

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hirata, K.; Geist, E.; Satake, K.; Tanioka, Y.; Yamaki, S.

2003-01-01

We inverted 13 tsunami waveforms recorded in Japan to estimate the slip distribution of the 1952 Tokachi-Oki earthquake (M 8.1), which occurred southeast off Hokkaido along the southern Kuril subduction zone. The previously estimated source area determined from tsunami travel times [Hatori, 1973] did not coincide with the observed aftershock distribution. Our results show that a large amount of slip occurred in the aftershock area east of Hatori's tsunami source area, suggesting that a portion of the interplate thrust near the trench was ruptured by the main shock. We also found more than 5 m of slip along the deeper part of the seismogenic interface, just below the central part of Hatori's tsunami source area. This region, which also has the largest stress drop during the main shock, had few aftershocks. Large tsunami heights on the eastern Hokkaido coast are better explained by the heterogeneous slip model than previous uniform-slip fault models. The total seismic moment is estimated to be 1.87 ?? 1021 N m, giving a moment magnitude of Mw = 8.1. The revised tsunami source area is estimated to be 25.2 ?? 103 km2, ???3 times larger than the previous tsunami source area. Out of four large earthquakes with M ??? 7 that subsequently occurred in and around the rupture area of the 1952 event, three were at the edges of regions with relatively small amount of slip. We also found that a subducted seamount near the edge of the rupture area possibly impeded slip along the plate interface.

Tsunami Early Warning via a Physics-Based Simulation Pipeline

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wilson, J. M.; Rundle, J. B.; Donnellan, A.; Ward, S. N.; Komjathy, A.

2017-12-01

Through independent efforts, physics-based simulations of earthquakes, tsunamis, and atmospheric signatures of these phenomenon have been developed. With the goal of producing tsunami forecasts and early warning tools for at-risk regions, we join these three spheres to create a simulation pipeline. The Virtual Quake simulator can produce thousands of years of synthetic seismicity on large, complex fault geometries, as well as the expected surface displacement in tsunamigenic regions. These displacements are used as initial conditions for tsunami simulators, such as Tsunami Squares, to produce catalogs of potential tsunami scenarios with probabilities. Finally, these tsunami scenarios can act as input for simulations of associated ionospheric total electron content, signals which can be detected by GNSS satellites for purposes of early warning in the event of a real tsunami. We present the most recent developments in this project.

Impact of tsunami on texture and mineralogy of a major placer deposit in southwest coast of India

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Babu, N.; Babu, D. S. Suresh; Das, P. N. Mohan

2007-03-01

The great Indonesian earth quake (26 December 2004) triggered a tsunami wave across the Bay of Bengal and Indian Ocean basins and has brought a major havoc in several countries including India. The coastal segment between Thotapalli and Valiazhikal in Kerala state of southwest India, where considerably rich beach placer deposit with ilmenite percentage of more than 70% is concentrated, has been investigated to understand the impact of tsunami on coastal sediments. The grain size analysis flashes out the significant differences between the pre- and post-tsunami littoral environments. While the mineral grains collected during pre-tsunami period show well-sorted nature, the post-tsunami samples represent moderately to poorly sorted nature. Similarly, unimodal and bimodal distributions of the sediments have been recorded for pre- and post-tsunami sediments, respectively. Further, mineral assemblages corresponding to before and after this major wave activity clearly indicate the large-scale redistribution of sediments. The post-tsunami sediments register increasing trends of garnet, sillimanite and rutile. The total heavy mineral percentage of the post-tsunami sediment also shows an improved concentration, perhaps due to the large-scale transport of lighter fraction. Magnetite percentage of post-tsunami samples reflects higher concentration compared to the pre-tsunami samples, indicating the intensity of reworking process. X-ray diffraction patterns of ilmenite grains have confirmed the increased presence of pseduorutile, and pseudobrookite in post-tsunami samples, which could be due to the mixing of more altered grains. SEM examination of grains also confirms the significant alteration patterns on the ubiquitous mineral of placer body, the ilmenite. The reason for these textural, mineralogical and micromorphological changes in heavy minerals particularly in ilmenite, could be due to the churning action on the deeper sediments of onshore region or on the sediments entrapped in the near shelf region of the area, by the ˜ 6 m high tsunami waves.

Ocean-bottom pressure changes above a fault area for tsunami excitation and propagation observed by a submarine dense network

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yomogida, K.; Saito, T.

2017-12-01

Conventional tsunami excitation and propagation have been formulated by incompressible fluid with velocity components. This approach is valid in most cases because we usually analyze tunamis as "long gravity waves" excited by submarine earthquakes. Newly developed ocean-bottom tsunami networks such as S-net and DONET have dramatically changed the above situation for the following two reasons: (1) tsunami propagations are now directly observed in a 2-D array manner without being suffered by complex "site effects" of sea shore, and (2) initial tsunami features can be directly detected just above a fault area. Removing the incompressibility assumption of sea water, we have formulated a new representation of tsunami excitation based on not velocity but displacement components. As a result, not only dynamics but static term (i.e., the component of zero frequency) can be naturally introduced, which is important for the pressure observed on the ocean floor, which ocean-bottom tsunami stations are going to record. The acceleration on the ocean floor should be combined with the conventional tsunami height (that is, the deformation of the sea level above a given station) in the measurement of ocean-bottom pressure although the acceleration exists only during fault motions in time. The M7.2 Off Fukushima earthquake on 22 November 2016 was the first event that excited large tsunamis within the territory of S-net stations. The propagation of tsunamis is found to be highly non-uniform, because of the strong velocity (i.e., sea depth) gradient perpendicular to the axis of Japan Trench. The earthquake was located in a shallow sea close to the coast, so that all the tsunami energy is reflected by the trench region of high velocity. Tsunami records (pressure gauges) within its fault area recorded clear slow motions of tsunamis (i.e., sea level changes) but also large high-frequency signals, as predicted by our theoretical result. That is, it may be difficult to extract tsunami motions from near-fault pressure gauge data immediately after the earthquake occurs, in the sense of tsunami early warning systems.

Acehnese reefs in the wake of the Asian tsunami.

PubMed

Baird, Andrew H; Campbell, Stuart J; Anggoro, Aji W; Ardiwijaya, Rizya L; Fadli, Nur; Herdiana, Yudi; Kartawijaya, Tasrif; Mahyiddin, Dodent; Mukminin, Ahmad; Pardede, Shinta T; Pratchett, Morgan S; Rudi, Edi; Siregar, Achis M

2005-11-08

The Sumatra-Andanaman tsunami was one of the greatest natural disasters in recorded human history. Here, we show that on the northwest coast of Aceh, Indonesia, where the tsunami was most ferocious, the damage to corals, although occasionally spectacular, was surprisingly limited. We detected no change in shallow coral assemblages between March 2003 and March 2005, with the exception of one site smothered by sediment. Direct tsunami damage was dependent on habitat and largely restricted to corals growing in unconsolidated substrata, a feature unique to tsunami disturbance. Reef condition, however, varied widely within the region and was clearly correlated with human impacts prior to the tsunami. Where fishing has been controlled, coral cover was high. In contrast, reefs exposed to destructive fishing had low coral cover and high algal cover, a phase shift the tsunami may exacerbate with an influx of sediments and nutrients. Healthy reefs did not mitigate the damage on land. Inundation distance was largely determined by wave height and coastal topography. We conclude that although chronic human misuse has been much more destructive to reefs in Aceh than this rare natural disturbance, human modification of the reef did not contribute to the magnitude of damage on land.

Probabilistic Tsunami Hazard Analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Thio, H. K.; Ichinose, G. A.; Somerville, P. G.; Polet, J.

2006-12-01

The recent tsunami disaster caused by the 2004 Sumatra-Andaman earthquake has focused our attention to the hazard posed by large earthquakes that occur under water, in particular subduction zone earthquakes, and the tsunamis that they generate. Even though these kinds of events are rare, the very large loss of life and material destruction caused by this earthquake warrant a significant effort towards the mitigation of the tsunami hazard. For ground motion hazard, Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis (PSHA) has become a standard practice in the evaluation and mitigation of seismic hazard to populations in particular with respect to structures, infrastructure and lifelines. Its ability to condense the complexities and variability of seismic activity into a manageable set of parameters greatly facilitates the design of effective seismic resistant buildings but also the planning of infrastructure projects. Probabilistic Tsunami Hazard Analysis (PTHA) achieves the same goal for hazards posed by tsunami. There are great advantages of implementing such a method to evaluate the total risk (seismic and tsunami) to coastal communities. The method that we have developed is based on the traditional PSHA and therefore completely consistent with standard seismic practice. Because of the strong dependence of tsunami wave heights on bathymetry, we use a full waveform tsunami waveform computation in lieu of attenuation relations that are common in PSHA. By pre-computing and storing the tsunami waveforms at points along the coast generated for sets of subfaults that comprise larger earthquake faults, we can efficiently synthesize tsunami waveforms for any slip distribution on those faults by summing the individual subfault tsunami waveforms (weighted by their slip). This efficiency make it feasible to use Green's function summation in lieu of attenuation relations to provide very accurate estimates of tsunami height for probabilistic calculations, where one typically computes thousands of earthquake scenarios. We have carried out preliminary tsunami hazard calculations for different return periods for western North America and Hawaii based on thousands of earthquake scenarios around the Pacific rim and along the coast of North America. We will present tsunami hazard maps for several return periods and also discuss how to use these results for probabilistic inundation and runup mapping. Our knowledge of certain types of tsunami sources is very limited (e.g. submarine landslides), but a probabilistic framework for tsunami hazard evaluation can include even such sources and their uncertainties and present the overall hazard in a meaningful and consistent way.

Far-Field Tsunami Hazard Assessment Along the Pacific Coast of Mexico by Historical Records and Numerical Simulation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ortiz-Huerta, Laura G.; Ortiz, Modesto; García-Gastélum, Alejandro

2018-03-01

Historical records of the Chile (22 May 1960), Alaska (27 March 1964), and Tohoku (11 March 2011) tsunamis recorded along the Pacific Coast of Mexico are used to investigate the goodness of far-field tsunami modeling using a focal mechanism consisting in a uniform slip distribution on large thrust faults around the Pacific Ocean. The Tohoku 2011 tsunami records recorded by Deep ocean Assessment and Reporting of Tsunami (DART) stations, and at coastal tide stations, were used to validate transoceanic tsunami models applicable to the harbors of Ensenada, Manzanillo, and Acapulco on the coast of Mexico. The amplitude resulting from synthetic tsunamis originated by M w 9.3 earthquakes around the Pacific varies from 1 to 2.5 m, depending on the tsunami origin region and on the directivity due to fault orientation and waveform modification by prominent features of sea bottom relief.

Far-Field Tsunami Hazard Assessment Along the Pacific Coast of Mexico by Historical Records and Numerical Simulation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ortiz-Huerta, Laura G.; Ortiz, Modesto; García-Gastélum, Alejandro

2018-04-01

Historical records of the Chile (22 May 1960), Alaska (27 March 1964), and Tohoku (11 March 2011) tsunamis recorded along the Pacific Coast of Mexico are used to investigate the goodness of far-field tsunami modeling using a focal mechanism consisting in a uniform slip distribution on large thrust faults around the Pacific Ocean. The Tohoku 2011 tsunami records recorded by Deep ocean Assessment and Reporting of Tsunami (DART) stations, and at coastal tide stations, were used to validate transoceanic tsunami models applicable to the harbors of Ensenada, Manzanillo, and Acapulco on the coast of Mexico. The amplitude resulting from synthetic tsunamis originated by M w 9.3 earthquakes around the Pacific varies from 1 to 2.5 m, depending on the tsunami origin region and on the directivity due to fault orientation and waveform modification by prominent features of sea bottom relief.

A possible space-based tsunami early warning system using observations of the tsunami ionospheric hole.

PubMed

Kamogawa, Masashi; Orihara, Yoshiaki; Tsurudome, Chiaki; Tomida, Yuto; Kanaya, Tatsuya; Ikeda, Daiki; Gusman, Aditya Riadi; Kakinami, Yoshihiro; Liu, Jann-Yenq; Toyoda, Atsushi

2016-12-01

Ionospheric plasma disturbances after a large tsunami can be detected by measurement of the total electron content (TEC) between a Global Positioning System (GPS) satellite and its ground-based receivers. TEC depression lasting for a few minutes to tens of minutes termed as tsunami ionospheric hole (TIH) is formed above the tsunami source area. Here we describe the quantitative relationship between initial tsunami height and the TEC depression rate caused by a TIH from seven tsunamigenic earthquakes in Japan and Chile. We found that the percentage of TEC depression and initial tsunami height are correlated and the largest TEC depressions appear 10 to 20 minutes after the main shocks. Our findings imply that Ionospheric TEC measurement using the existing ground receiver networks could be used in an early warning system for near-field tsunamis that take more than 20 minutes to arrive in coastal areas.

A possible space-based tsunami early warning system using observations of the tsunami ionospheric hole

PubMed Central

Kamogawa, Masashi; Orihara, Yoshiaki; Tsurudome, Chiaki; Tomida, Yuto; Kanaya, Tatsuya; Ikeda, Daiki; Gusman, Aditya Riadi; Kakinami, Yoshihiro; Liu, Jann-Yenq; Toyoda, Atsushi

2016-01-01

Ionospheric plasma disturbances after a large tsunami can be detected by measurement of the total electron content (TEC) between a Global Positioning System (GPS) satellite and its ground-based receivers. TEC depression lasting for a few minutes to tens of minutes termed as tsunami ionospheric hole (TIH) is formed above the tsunami source area. Here we describe the quantitative relationship between initial tsunami height and the TEC depression rate caused by a TIH from seven tsunamigenic earthquakes in Japan and Chile. We found that the percentage of TEC depression and initial tsunami height are correlated and the largest TEC depressions appear 10 to 20 minutes after the main shocks. Our findings imply that Ionospheric TEC measurement using the existing ground receiver networks could be used in an early warning system for near-field tsunamis that take more than 20 minutes to arrive in coastal areas. PMID:27905487

Observations and Modeling of the August 27, 2012 Earthquake and Tsunami affecting El Salvador and Nicaragua

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Borrero, Jose C.; Kalligeris, Nikos; Lynett, Patrick J.; Fritz, Hermann M.; Newman, Andrew V.; Convers, Jaime A.

2014-12-01

On 27 August 2012 (04:37 UTC, 26 August 10:37 p.m. local time) a magnitude M w = 7.3 earthquake occurred off the coast of El Salvador and generated surprisingly large local tsunami. Following the event, local and international tsunami teams surveyed the tsunami effects in El Salvador and northern Nicaragua. The tsunami reached a maximum height of ~6 m with inundation of up to 340 m inland along a 25 km section of coastline in eastern El Salvador. Less severe inundation was reported in northern Nicaragua. In the far-field, the tsunami was recorded by a DART buoy and tide gauges in several locations of the eastern Pacific Ocean but did not cause any damage. The field measurements and recordings are compared to numerical modeling results using initial conditions of tsunami generation based on finite-fault earthquake and tsunami inversions and a uniform slip model.

Tsunami-Generated Atmospheric Gravity Waves and Their Atmospheric and Ionospheric Effects: a Review and Some Recent Modeling Results

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hickey, M. P.

2017-12-01

Tsunamis propagate on the ocean surface at the shallow water phase speed which coincides with the phase speed of fast atmospheric gravity waves. The forcing frequency also corresponds with those of internal atmospheric gravity waves. Hence, the coupling and effective forcing of gravity waves due to tsunamis is particularly effective. The fast horizontal phase speeds of the resulting gravity waves allows them to propagate well into the thermosphere before viscous dissipation becomes strong, and the waves can achieve nonlinear amplitudes at these heights resulting in large amplitude traveling ionospheric disturbances (TIDs). Additionally, because the tsunami represents a moving source able to traverse large distances across the globe, the gravity waves and associated TIDs can be detected at large distances from the original tsunami (earthquake) source. Although it was during the mid 1970s when the tsunami source of gravity waves was first postulated, only relatively recently (over the last ten to fifteen years) has there has been a surge of interest in this research arena, driven largely by significant improvements in measurement technologies and computational capabilities. For example, the use of GPS measurements to derive total electron content has been a particularly powerful technique used to monitor the propagation and evolution of TIDs. Monitoring airglow variations driven by atmospheric gravity waves has also been a useful technique. The modeling of specific events and comparison with the observed gravity waves and/or TIDs has been quite revealing. In this talk I will review some of the most interesting aspects of this research and also discuss some interesting and outstanding issues that need to be addressed. New modeling results relevant to the Tohoku tsunami event will also be presented.

Simultaneous Sea-Level Oscillations in Japanese Bays Induced by the Tsunami of Nankai-Trough Earthquake

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Oishi, Y.; Furumura, T.; Imamura, F.; Yamashita, K.; Sugawara, D.

2016-12-01

In this study, we investigate the response of bays to the tsunami of Nankai-trough earthquake based on tsunami simulations and demonstrate the possibility that sea-level oscillation of each bay, which is induced by an incident tsunami, interacts with those of other bays. Several major cities in Japan, including the capital, are located in the bays near the Nankai trough and it is assumed that these cities will be largely affected by the tsunamis caused by recurring large earthquakes at the trough. Therefore, it is very important for these populated cities to understand the mechanism and properties of the tsunami-induced oscillations that continue for a long time in bays to draw up evacuation plans. To investigate the response of bays for various tsunamis that may occur in the Nankai trough area, we distributed the tsunami sources that have the form of a 2-D Gaussian function around the Nankai trough. From simulations with these sources, it was found that strong oscillations of bay water occur when the source is located in the bay itself or when strong oscillations occur in other bays. For example, when the Tosa bay oscillates, the Tokyo bay that is 600 km away from the Tosa bay also oscillates. Among the bays around the Nankai trough, the Suruga bay, the deepest bay in Japan with a 2500-km depth, oscillates more strongly than other bays for most cases. To check the influence of the strong oscillations in the Suruga bay on other bays, we conducted tsunami simulations using a modified topography model in which the Suruga bay is artificially landfilled. As a consequence, the strength of oscillations in the adjacent bays are reduced by 20-30%, suggesting the large influence of the distinguished oscillation of the Suruga bay on these bays. We finally conducted tsunami simulations using the eleven Nankai-trough earthquake scenarios of the Central Disaster Prevention Council (CDPC) of Japan as tsunami sources, and the mutual relation regarding the strengths of oscillations among the bays around the Nankai trough was confirmed irrespective of the earthquake scenarios. The results of this study suggest that oscillations of the bays do not occur independently in each bay but simultaneously occur among the bays. More detailed characteristics of the response of the bays to the tsunamis in the Nankai-trough area will be discussed in the presentation.

Highly variable recurrence of tsunamis in the 7,400 years before the 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami

PubMed Central

Rubin, Charles M.; Horton, Benjamin P.; Sieh, Kerry; Pilarczyk, Jessica E.; Daly, Patrick; Ismail, Nazli; Parnell, Andrew C.

2017-01-01

The devastating 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami caught millions of coastal residents and the scientific community off-guard. Subsequent research in the Indian Ocean basin has identified prehistoric tsunamis, but the timing and recurrence intervals of such events are uncertain. Here we present an extraordinary 7,400 year stratigraphic sequence of prehistoric tsunami deposits from a coastal cave in Aceh, Indonesia. This record demonstrates that at least 11 prehistoric tsunamis struck the Aceh coast between 7,400 and 2,900 years ago. The average time period between tsunamis is about 450 years with intervals ranging from a long, dormant period of over 2,000 years, to multiple tsunamis within the span of a century. Although there is evidence that the likelihood of another tsunamigenic earthquake in Aceh province is high, these variable recurrence intervals suggest that long dormant periods may follow Sunda megathrust ruptures as large as that of the 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami. PMID:28722009

Highly variable recurrence of tsunamis in the 7,400 years before the 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami.

PubMed

Rubin, Charles M; Horton, Benjamin P; Sieh, Kerry; Pilarczyk, Jessica E; Daly, Patrick; Ismail, Nazli; Parnell, Andrew C

2017-07-19

The devastating 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami caught millions of coastal residents and the scientific community off-guard. Subsequent research in the Indian Ocean basin has identified prehistoric tsunamis, but the timing and recurrence intervals of such events are uncertain. Here we present an extraordinary 7,400 year stratigraphic sequence of prehistoric tsunami deposits from a coastal cave in Aceh, Indonesia. This record demonstrates that at least 11 prehistoric tsunamis struck the Aceh coast between 7,400 and 2,900 years ago. The average time period between tsunamis is about 450 years with intervals ranging from a long, dormant period of over 2,000 years, to multiple tsunamis within the span of a century. Although there is evidence that the likelihood of another tsunamigenic earthquake in Aceh province is high, these variable recurrence intervals suggest that long dormant periods may follow Sunda megathrust ruptures as large as that of the 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami.

Highly variable recurrence of tsunamis in the 7,400 years before the 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rubin, Charles M.; Horton, Benjamin P.; Sieh, Kerry; Pilarczyk, Jessica E.; Daly, Patrick; Ismail, Nazli; Parnell, Andrew C.

2017-07-01

The devastating 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami caught millions of coastal residents and the scientific community off-guard. Subsequent research in the Indian Ocean basin has identified prehistoric tsunamis, but the timing and recurrence intervals of such events are uncertain. Here we present an extraordinary 7,400 year stratigraphic sequence of prehistoric tsunami deposits from a coastal cave in Aceh, Indonesia. This record demonstrates that at least 11 prehistoric tsunamis struck the Aceh coast between 7,400 and 2,900 years ago. The average time period between tsunamis is about 450 years with intervals ranging from a long, dormant period of over 2,000 years, to multiple tsunamis within the span of a century. Although there is evidence that the likelihood of another tsunamigenic earthquake in Aceh province is high, these variable recurrence intervals suggest that long dormant periods may follow Sunda megathrust ruptures as large as that of the 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami.

Numerical experiment on tsunami deposit distribution process by using tsunami sediment transport model in historical tsunami event of megathrust Nankai trough earthquake

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Imai, K.; Sugawara, D.; Takahashi, T.

2017-12-01

A large flow caused by tsunami transports sediments from beach and forms tsunami deposits in land and coastal lakes. A tsunami deposit has been found in their undisturbed on coastal lakes especially. Okamura & Matsuoka (2012) found some tsunami deposits in the field survey of coastal lakes facing to the Nankai trough, and tsunami deposits due to the past eight Nankai Trough megathrust earthquakes they identified. The environment in coastal lakes is stably calm and suitable for tsunami deposits preservation compared to other topographical conditions such as plains. Therefore, there is a possibility that the recurrence interval of megathrust earthquakes and tsunamis will be discussed with high resolution. In addition, it has been pointed out that small events that cannot be detected in plains could be separated finely (Sawai, 2012). Various aspects of past tsunami is expected to be elucidated, in consideration of topographical conditions of coastal lakes by using the relationship between the erosion-and-sedimentation process of the lake bottom and the external force of tsunami. In this research, numerical examination based on tsunami sediment transport model (Takahashi et al., 1999) was carried out on the site Ryujin-ike pond of Ohita, Japan where tsunami deposit was identified, and deposit migration analysis was conducted on the tsunami deposit distribution process of historical Nankai Trough earthquakes. Furthermore, examination of tsunami source conditions is possibly investigated by comparison studies of the observed data and the computation of tsunami deposit distribution. It is difficult to clarify details of tsunami source from indistinct information of paleogeographical conditions. However, this result shows that it can be used as a constraint condition of the tsunami source scale by combining tsunami deposit distribution in lakes with computation data.

Tsunamis as geomorphic crises: Lessons from the December 26, 2004 tsunami in Lhok Nga, West Banda Aceh (Sumatra, Indonesia)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Paris, Raphaël; Wassmer, Patrick; Sartohadi, Junun; Lavigne, Franck; Barthomeuf, Benjamin; Desgages, Emilie; Grancher, Delphine; Baumert, Philippe; Vautier, Franck; Brunstein, Daniel; Gomez, Christopher

2009-03-01

Large tsunamis are major geomorphic crises, since they imply extensive erosion, sediment transport and deposition in a few minutes and over hundreds of kilometres of coast. Nevertheless, little is known about their geomorphologic imprints. The December 26, 2004 tsunami in Sumatra (Indonesia) was one of the largest and deadliest tsunamis in recorded human history. We present a description of the coastal erosion and boulder deposition induced by the 2004 tsunami in the Lhok Nga Bay, located to the West of Banda Aceh (northwest Sumatra). The geomorphological impact of the tsunami is evidenced by: beach erosion (some beaches have almost disappeared); destruction of sand barriers protecting the lagoons or at river mouths; numerous erosion escarpments typically in the order of 0.5-1.5 m when capped by soil and more than 2 m in dunes; bank erosion in the river beds (the retreat along the main river is in the order of 5-15 m, with local retreats exceeding 30 m); large scars typically 20-50 cm deep on slopes; dislodgement of blocks along fractures and structural ramps on cliffs. The upper limit of erosion appears as a continuous trimline at 20-30 m a.s.l., locally reaching 50 m. The erosional imprints of the tsunami extend to 500 m from the shoreline and exceed 2 km along riverbeds. The overall coastal retreat from Lampuuk to Leupung was 60 m (550,000 m 2) and locally exceeded 150 m. Over 276,000 m 3 of coastal sediments were eroded by the tsunami along the 9.2 km of sandy coast. The mean erosion rate of the beaches was ~ 30 m 3/m of coast and locally exceeded 80 m 3/m. The most eroded coasts were tangent to the tsunami wave train, which was coming from the southwest. The fringing reefs were not efficient in reducing the erosional impact of the tsunami. The 220 boulders measured range from 0.3 to 7.2 m large (typically 0.7-1.5 m), with weights from over 50 kg up to 85 t. We found one boulder, less than 1 m large, at 1 km from the coastline, but all the others were transported less than 450 m (< 7 m a.s.l.). No fining landward boulder size distribution could be detected. The coincidence of different size modes, from boulders to fine sands, with independent spatial distributions, suggests that all the material was not transported in suspension, but rather by a combination of suspension and bed load transport. Finally, the spatial and size distributions of tsunami boulder deposits mostly depend on the location and characteristics of their source (coral reef, beach rock, platform, dams), together with clast and surface interference during transport. One year after, the coastal environment in northwest Sumatra is still in a post-tsunami dynamic. Thus, the difference between the largest tsunamis (height > 30 m) and the moderate tsunamis (height < 10 m) could be their long-term impact on coastal environments.

Estimation of the Characterized Tsunami Source Model considering the Complicated Shape of Tsunami Source by Using the observed waveforms of GPS Buoys in the Nankai Trough

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Seto, S.; Takahashi, T.

2017-12-01

In the 2011 Tohoku earthquake tsunami disaster, the delay of understanding damage situation increased the human damage. To solve this problem, it is important to search the severe damaged areas. The tsunami numerical modeling is useful to estimate damages and the accuracy of simulation depends on the tsunami source. Seto and Takahashi (2017) proposed a method to estimate the characterized tsunami source model by using the limited observed data of GPS buoys. The model consists of Large slip zone (LSZ), Super large slip zone (SLSZ) and background rupture zone (BZ) as the Cabinet Office, Government of Japan (below COGJ) reported after the Tohoku tsunami. At the beginning of this method, the rectangular fault model is assumed based on the seismic magnitude and hypocenter reported right after an earthquake. By using the fault model, tsunami propagation is simulated numerically, and the fault model is improved after comparing the computed data with the observed data repeatedly. In the comparison, correlation coefficient and regression coefficient are used as indexes. They are calculated with the observed and the computed tsunami wave profiles. This repetition is conducted to get the two coefficients close to 1.0, which makes the precise of the fault model higher. However, it was indicated as the improvement that the model did not examine a complicated shape of tsunami source. In this study, we proposed an improved model to examine the complicated shape. COGJ(2012) assumed that possible tsunami source region in the Nankai trough consisted of the several thousands small faults. And, we use these small faults to estimate the targeted tsunami source in this model. Therefore, we can estimate the complicated tsunami source by using these small faults. The estimation of BZ is carried out as a first step, and LSZ and SLSZ are estimated next as same as the previous model. The proposed model by using GPS buoy was applied for a tsunami scenario in the Nankai Trough. As a result, the final estimated location of LSZ and SLSZ in BZ are estimated well.

Source processes for the probabilistic assessment of tsunami hazards

USGS Publications Warehouse

Geist, Eric L.; Lynett, Patrick J.

2014-01-01

The importance of tsunami hazard assessment has increased in recent years as a result of catastrophic consequences from events such as the 2004 Indian Ocean and 2011 Japan tsunamis. In particular, probabilistic tsunami hazard assessment (PTHA) methods have been emphasized to include all possible ways a tsunami could be generated. Owing to the scarcity of tsunami observations, a computational approach is used to define the hazard. This approach includes all relevant sources that may cause a tsunami to impact a site and all quantifiable uncertainty. Although only earthquakes were initially considered for PTHA, recent efforts have also attempted to include landslide tsunami sources. Including these sources into PTHA is considerably more difficult because of a general lack of information on relating landslide area and volume to mean return period. The large variety of failure types and rheologies associated with submarine landslides translates to considerable uncertainty in determining the efficiency of tsunami generation. Resolution of these and several other outstanding problems are described that will further advance PTHA methodologies leading to a more accurate understanding of tsunami hazard.

Discrimination of tsunamigenic earthquakes by ionospheric sounding using GNSS observations of total electron content from the Sumatran GPS Array

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Manta, F.; Feng, L.; Occhipinti, G.; Taisne, B.; Hill, E.

2017-12-01

Tsunami earthquakes generate tsunamis larger than expected for their seismic magnitude. They rupture the shallow megathrust, which is usually at significant distance from land-based monitoring networks. This distance presents a challenge in accurately estimating the magnitude and source extent of tsunami earthquakes. Whether these parameters can be estimated reliably is critical to the success of tsunami early warning systems. In this work, we investigate the potential role of using GNSS-observed ionospheric total electron content (TEC) to discriminate tsunami earthquakes, by introducing for the first time the TEC Intensity Index (TECII) for rapidly identify tsunamigenic earthquakes. We examine two Mw 7.8 megathrust events along the Sumatran subduction zone with data from the Sumatran GPS Array (SuGAr). Both events triggered a tsunami alert that was canceled later. The Banyaks event (April 6th, 2010) did not generate a tsunami and caused only minor earthquake-related damage to infrastructure. On the contrary, the Mentawai event (October 25th, 2010) produced a large tsunami with run-up heights of >16 m along the southwestern coasts of the Pagai Islands. The tsunami claimed more than 400 lives. The primary difference between the two events was the depth of rupture: the Mentawai event ruptured a very shallow (<6 km) portion of the Sunda megathrust, while the Banyaks event ruptured a deeper portion (20-30 km). While we identify only a minor ionospheric signature of the Banyaks event (TECII = 1.05), we identify a strong characteristic acoustic-gravity wave only 8 minutes after the Mentawai earthquake (TECII = 1.14) and a characteristic signature of a tsunami 40 minutes after the event. These two signals reveal the large surface displacement at the rupture, and the consequent destructive tsunami. This comparative study of two earthquakes with the same magnitude at different depths highlights the potential role of ionospheric monitoring by GNSS to tsunami early warning systems

Tsunami risk mapping simulation for Malaysia

USGS Publications Warehouse

Teh, S.Y.; Koh, H. L.; Moh, Y.T.; De Angelis, D. L.; Jiang, J.

2011-01-01

The 26 December 2004 Andaman mega tsunami killed about a quarter of a million people worldwide. Since then several significant tsunamis have recurred in this region, including the most recent 25 October 2010 Mentawai tsunami. These tsunamis grimly remind us of the devastating destruction that a tsunami might inflict on the affected coastal communities. There is evidence that tsunamis of similar or higher magnitudes might occur again in the near future in this region. Of particular concern to Malaysia are tsunamigenic earthquakes occurring along the northern part of the Sunda Trench. Further, the Manila Trench in the South China Sea has been identified as another source of potential tsunamigenic earthquakes that might trigger large tsunamis. To protect coastal communities that might be affected by future tsunamis, an effective early warning system must be properly installed and maintained to provide adequate time for residents to be evacuated from risk zones. Affected communities must be prepared and educated in advance regarding tsunami risk zones, evacuation routes as well as an effective evacuation procedure that must be taken during a tsunami occurrence. For these purposes, tsunami risk zones must be identified and classified according to the levels of risk simulated. This paper presents an analysis of tsunami simulations for the South China Sea and the Andaman Sea for the purpose of developing a tsunami risk zone classification map for Malaysia based upon simulated maximum wave heights. ?? 2011 WIT Press.

Tsunami hazard assessment for the Azores archipelago: a historical review

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cabral, Nuno; Ferreira, Teresa; Queiroz, Maria Gabriela

2010-05-01

The Azores islands due to its complex geographical and geodynamic setting are exposed to tsunamigenic events associated to different triggering mechanisms, local or distant. Since the settlement of the Azores, in the fifteenth century, there are several documents that relate coastal areas flooding episodes with unusually high waves which caused death and destruction. This work had as main objective the characterization of the different events that can be associated with tsunamigenic phenomena, registered in the archipelago. With this aim, it was collected diverse documentation like chronics, manuscripts, newspaper articles and magazines, scientific publications, and international databases available online. From all the studied tsunami events it was identified the occurrence of some teletsunamis, among which the most relevant was triggered by the 1st November 1755 Lisbon earthquake, with an epicenter SW of Portugal, which killed 6 people in Terceira island. It is also noted the teletsunami generated by the 1761 earthquake, located in the same region as the latest, and the one generated in 1929 by an earthquake-triggered submarine landslide in the Grand Banks of Newfoundland. From the local events, originated in the Azores, the most significant were the tsunamis triggered by 1757 and 1980 earthquakes, both associated with the Terceira Rift dynamics. In the first case the waves may also be due to earthquake-triggered. With respect to tsunamis triggered by sea cliffs landslides it is important to mention the 1847 Quebrada Nova and the 1980 Rocha Alta events, both located in the Flores Island. The 1847 event is the deadliest tsunami recorded in Azores since 10 people died in Flores and Corvo islands in result of the propagated wave. The developed studies improve knowledge of the tsunami sources that affected the Azores during its history, also revealing the importance of awareness about this natural phenomenon. The obtained results showed that the tsunami hazard in the Azores is mostly driven from the events triggered by distant earthquakes and local earthquakes and landslides. In this context, were identified 12 tsunami events. In another context, it were identified 6 events associated with coastal areas flooding due to floods and/or extreme weather phenomena, hypothetically identified as meteotsunamis. It should be stressed that, despite the differences associated with their triggering mechanisms, both the tsunamis generated by geological factors and those related to atmospheric phenomena may have similar impact. Although the absence of reports identifying tsunamis associated with volcanic activity, the eruptive history of the Azores active volcanoes shows high magnitude eruptions with considerable tsunamigenic potential.

Tsunami Numerical Simulation for Hypothetical Giant or Great Earthquakes along the Izu-Bonin Trench

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Harada, T.; Ishibashi, K.; Satake, K.

2013-12-01

We performed tsunami numerical simulations from various giant/great fault models along the Izu-Bonin trench in order to see the behavior of tsunamis originated in this region and to examine the recurrence pattern of great interplate earthquakes along the Nankai trough off southwest Japan. As a result, large tsunami heights are expected in the Ryukyu Islands and on the Pacific coasts of Kyushu, Shikoku and western Honshu. The computed large tsunami heights support the hypothesis that the 1605 Keicho Nankai earthquake was not a tsunami earthquake along the Nankai trough but a giant or great earthquake along the Izu-Bonin trench (Ishibashi and Harada, 2013, SSJ Fall Meeting abstract). The Izu-Bonin subduction zone has been regarded as so-called 'Mariana-type subduction zone' where M>7 interplate earthquakes do not occur inherently. However, since several M>7 outer-rise earthquakes have occurred in this region and the largest slip of the 2011 Tohoku earthquake (M9.0) took place on the shallow plate interface where the strain accumulation had considered to be a little, a possibility of M>8.5 earthquakes in this region may not be negligible. The latest M 7.4 outer-rise earthquake off the Bonin Islands on Dec. 22, 2010 produced small tsunamis on the Pacific coast of Japan except for the Tohoku and Hokkaido districts and a zone of abnormal seismic intensity in the Kanto and Tohoku districts. Ishibashi and Harada (2013) proposed a working hypothesis that the 1605 Keicho earthquake which is considered a great tsunami earthquake along the Nankai trough was a giant/great earthquake along the Izu-Bonin trench based on the similarity of the distributions of ground shaking and tsunami of this event and the 2010 Bonin earthquake. In this study, in order to examine the behavior of tsunamis from giant/great earthquakes along the Izu-Bonin trench and check the Ishibashi and Harada's hypothesis, we performed tsunami numerical simulations from fault models along the Izu-Bonin trench. Tsunami propagation was computed by the finite-difference method of the non-liner long-wave equations with Corioli's force (Satake, 1995, PAGEOPH) in the area of 130 - 145°E and 25 - 37°N. The 15-seconds gridded bathymetry data are used. The tsunami propagations for eight hours since the faulting of the various fault models were computed. As a result, large tsunamis from assumed giant/great both interplate and outer-rise earthquakes reach the Ryukyu Islands' coasts and the Pacific coasts of Kyushu, Shikoku and western Honshu west of Kanto. Therefore, the tsunami simulations support the Ishibashi and Harada's hypothesis. At the time of writing, the best yet preliminary model to reproduce the 1605 tsunami heights is an outer-rise steep fault model which extends 26.5 - 29.0°N (300 km of length) and with 16.7 m of average slip (Mw 8.6). We will examine tsunami behavior in the Pacific Ocean from this fault model. To examine our results, field investigations of tsunami deposits in the Bonin Islands and discussions on plate dynamics and seismogenic characteristics along the Izu-Bonin trench are necessary.

Examination of the largest-possible tsunamis (Level 2) generated along the Nankai and Suruga troughs during the past 4000 years based on studies of tsunami deposits from the 2011 Tohoku-oki tsunami

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kitamura, Akihisa

2016-12-01

Japanese historical documents reveal that Mw 8 class earthquakes have occurred every 100-150 years along the Suruga and Nankai troughs since the 684 Hakuho earthquake. These earthquakes have commonly caused large tsunamis with wave heights of up to 10 m in the Japanese coastal area along the Suruga and Nankai troughs. From the perspective of tsunami disaster management, these tsunamis are designated as Level 1 tsunamis and are the basis for the design of coastal protection facilities. A Mw 9.0 earthquake (the 2011 Tohoku-oki earthquake) and a mega-tsunami with wave heights of 10-40 m struck the Pacific coast of the northeastern Japanese mainland on 11 March 2011, and far exceeded pre-disaster predictions of wave height. Based on the lessons learned from the 2011 Tohoku-oki earthquake, the Japanese Government predicted the tsunami heights of the largest-possible tsunami (termed a Level 2 tsunami) that could be generated in the Suruga and Nankai troughs. The difference in wave heights between Level 1 and Level 2 tsunamis exceeds 20 m in some areas, including the southern Izu Peninsula. This study reviews the distribution of prehistorical tsunami deposits and tsunami boulders during the past 4000 years, based on previous studies in the coastal area of Shizuoka Prefecture, Japan. The results show that a tsunami deposit dated at 3400-3300 cal BP can be traced between the Shimizu, Shizuoka and Rokken-gawa lowlands, whereas no geologic evidence related to the corresponding tsunami (the Rokken-gawa-Oya tsunami) was found on the southern Izu Peninsula. Thus, the Rokken-gawa-Oya tsunami is not classified as a Level 2 tsunami.

Immediate Ecological Impacts of the 2011 Tohoku Earthquake Tsunami on Intertidal Flat Communities

PubMed Central

Urabe, Jotaro; Suzuki, Takao; Nishita, Tatsuki; Makino, Wataru

2013-01-01

Following the Great East Japan Earthquake in 2011, a large tsunami developed and struck the Pacific coast of eastern Japan. To assess the immediate impacts of the tsunami on coastal communities, changes in taxon composition and richness of macrobenthic animals before and after the tsunami were examined at nine intertidal flats in Sendai Bay and the Sanriku Ria coast. The results showed that 30–80% of taxa indigenously inhabiting intertidal flats disappeared after the tsunami. Among animal types, endobenthic and sessile epibenthic animals were more vulnerable to the tsunami than mobile epibenthic animals like shore crabs and snails. For all the intertidal flats examined, animals that were originally dwellers in lower tidal zones and not recorded before the tsunami were also found right after the tsunami, indicating that the tsunami not only took away many benthic taxa from the intertidal flats but also brought in some taxa from elsewhere. However, overall changes in taxon community composition were greater for intertidal flats that experienced larger inundation heights. These results showed that the ecological impacts of the tsunami were proportional to the physical impacts as gauged by wave height and that mobile epibenthic animals were less vulnerable to the tsunami. PMID:23650529

Immediate ecological impacts of the 2011 Tohoku earthquake tsunami on intertidal flat communities.

PubMed

Urabe, Jotaro; Suzuki, Takao; Nishita, Tatsuki; Makino, Wataru

2013-01-01

Following the Great East Japan Earthquake in 2011, a large tsunami developed and struck the Pacific coast of eastern Japan. To assess the immediate impacts of the tsunami on coastal communities, changes in taxon composition and richness of macrobenthic animals before and after the tsunami were examined at nine intertidal flats in Sendai Bay and the Sanriku Ria coast. The results showed that 30-80% of taxa indigenously inhabiting intertidal flats disappeared after the tsunami. Among animal types, endobenthic and sessile epibenthic animals were more vulnerable to the tsunami than mobile epibenthic animals like shore crabs and snails. For all the intertidal flats examined, animals that were originally dwellers in lower tidal zones and not recorded before the tsunami were also found right after the tsunami, indicating that the tsunami not only took away many benthic taxa from the intertidal flats but also brought in some taxa from elsewhere. However, overall changes in taxon community composition were greater for intertidal flats that experienced larger inundation heights. These results showed that the ecological impacts of the tsunami were proportional to the physical impacts as gauged by wave height and that mobile epibenthic animals were less vulnerable to the tsunami.

Develop Probabilistic Tsunami Design Maps for ASCE 7

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wei, Y.; Thio, H. K.; Chock, G.; Titov, V. V.

2014-12-01

A national standard for engineering design for tsunami effects has not existed before and this significant risk is mostly ignored in engineering design. The American Society of Civil Engineers (ASCE) 7 Tsunami Loads and Effects Subcommittee is completing a chapter for the 2016 edition of ASCE/SEI 7 Standard. Chapter 6, Tsunami Loads and Effects, would become the first national tsunami design provisions. These provisions will apply to essential facilities and critical infrastructure. This standard for tsunami loads and effects will apply to designs as part of the tsunami preparedness. The provisions will have significance as the post-tsunami recovery tool, to plan and evaluate for reconstruction. Maps of 2,500-year probabilistic tsunami inundation for Alaska, Washington, Oregon, California, and Hawaii need to be developed for use with the ASCE design provisions. These new tsunami design zone maps will define the coastal zones where structures of greater importance would be designed for tsunami resistance and community resilience. The NOAA Center for Tsunami Research (NCTR) has developed 75 tsunami inundation models as part of the operational tsunami model forecast capability for the U.S. coastline. NCTR, UW, and URS are collaborating with ASCE to develop the 2,500-year tsunami design maps for the Pacific states using these tsunami models. This ensures the probabilistic criteria are established in ASCE's tsunami design maps. URS established a Probabilistic Tsunami Hazard Assessment approach consisting of a large amount of tsunami scenarios that include both epistemic uncertainty and aleatory variability (Thio et al., 2010). Their study provides 2,500-year offshore tsunami heights at the 100-m water depth, along with the disaggregated earthquake sources. NOAA's tsunami models are used to identify a group of sources that produce these 2,500-year tsunami heights. The tsunami inundation limits and runup heights derived from these sources establish the tsunami design map for the study site. ASCE's Energy Grad Line Analysis then uses these modeling constraints to derive hydrodynamic forces for structures within the tsunami design zone. The probabilistic tsunami design maps will be validated by comparison to state inundation maps under the coordination of the National Tsunami Hazard Mitigation Program.

The effect of compliant prisms on subduction zone earthquakes and tsunamis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lotto, Gabriel C.; Dunham, Eric M.; Jeppson, Tamara N.; Tobin, Harold J.

2017-01-01

Earthquakes generate tsunamis by coseismically deforming the seafloor, and that deformation is largely controlled by the shallow rupture process. Therefore, in order to better understand how earthquakes generate tsunamis, one must consider the material structure and frictional properties of the shallowest part of the subduction zone, where ruptures often encounter compliant sedimentary prisms. Compliant prisms have been associated with enhanced shallow slip, seafloor deformation, and tsunami heights, particularly in the context of tsunami earthquakes. To rigorously quantify the role compliant prisms play in generating tsunamis, we perform a series of numerical simulations that directly couple dynamic rupture on a dipping thrust fault to the elastodynamic response of the Earth and the acoustic response of the ocean. Gravity is included in our simulations in the context of a linearized Eulerian description of the ocean, which allows us to model tsunami generation and propagation, including dispersion and related nonhydrostatic effects. Our simulations span a three-dimensional parameter space of prism size, prism compliance, and sub-prism friction - specifically, the rate-and-state parameter b - a that determines velocity-weakening or velocity-strengthening behavior. We find that compliant prisms generally slow rupture velocity and, for larger prisms, generate tsunamis more efficiently than subduction zones without prisms. In most but not all cases, larger, more compliant prisms cause greater amounts of shallow slip and larger tsunamis. Furthermore, shallow friction is also quite important in determining overall slip; increasing sub-prism b - a enhances slip everywhere along the fault. Counterintuitively, we find that in simulations with large prisms and velocity-strengthening friction at the base of the prism, increasing prism compliance reduces rather than enhances shallow slip and tsunami wave height.

Inundation Mapping and Hazard Assessment of Tectonic and Landslide Tsunamis in Southeast Alaska

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Suleimani, E.; Nicolsky, D.; Koehler, R. D., III

2014-12-01

The Alaska Earthquake Center conducts tsunami inundation mapping for coastal communities in Alaska, and is currently focused on the southeastern region and communities of Yakutat, Elfin Cove, Gustavus and Hoonah. This activity provides local emergency officials with tsunami hazard assessment, planning, and mitigation tools. At-risk communities are distributed along several segments of the Alaska coastline, each having a unique seismic history and potential tsunami hazard. Thus, a critical component of our project is accurate identification and characterization of potential tectonic and landslide tsunami sources. The primary tectonic element of Southeast Alaska is the Fairweather - Queen Charlotte fault system, which has ruptured in 5 large strike-slip earthquakes in the past 100 years. The 1958 "Lituya Bay" earthquake triggered a large landslide into Lituya Bay that generated a 540-m-high wave. The M7.7 Haida Gwaii earthquake of October 28, 2012 occurred along the same fault, but was associated with dominantly vertical motion, generating a local tsunami. Communities in Southeast Alaska are also vulnerable to hazards related to locally generated waves, due to proximity of communities to landslide-prone fjords and frequent earthquakes. The primary mechanisms for local tsunami generation are failure of steep rock slopes due to relaxation of internal stresses after deglaciation, and failure of thick unconsolidated sediments accumulated on underwater delta fronts at river mouths. We numerically model potential tsunami waves and inundation extent that may result from future hypothetical far- and near-field earthquakes and landslides. We perform simulations for each source scenario using the Alaska Tsunami Model, which is validated through a set of analytical benchmarks and tested against laboratory and field data. Results of numerical modeling combined with historical observations are compiled on inundation maps and used for site-specific tsunami hazard assessment by emergency planners.

Elders recall an earlier tsunami on Indian Ocean shores

USGS Publications Warehouse

Kakar, Din Mohammad; Naeem, Ghazala; Usman, Abdullah; Hasan, Haider; Lohdi, Hira; Srinivasalu, Seshachalam; Andrade, Vanessa; Rajendran, C.P.; Naderi Beni, Abdolmajid; Hamzeh, Mohammad Ali; Hoffmann, Goesta; Al Balushi, Noora; Gale, Nora; Kodijat, Ardito; Fritz, Hermann M.; Atwater, Brian F.

2014-01-01

Ten years on, the Indian Ocean tsunami of 26 December 2004 still looms large in efforts to reduce coastal risk. The disaster has spurred worldwide advances in tsunami detection and warning, tsunami-risk assessment, and tsunami awareness [Satake, 2014]. Nearly a lifetime has passed since the northwestern Indian Ocean last produced a devastating tsunami. Documentation of this tsunami, in November 1945, was hindered by international instability in the wake of the Second World War and, in British India, by the approach of independence and partition. The parent earthquake, of magnitude 8.1, was widely recorded, and the tsunami registered on tide gauges, but intelligence reports and newspaper articles say little about inundation limits while permitting a broad range of catalogued death tolls. What has been established about the 1945 tsunami falls short of what's needed today for ground-truthing inundation models, estimating risk to enlarged populations, and anchoring awareness campaigns in local facts. Recent efforts to reduce coastal risk around the Arabian Sea include a project in which eyewitnesses to the 1945 tsunami were found and interviewed (Fig. 1), and related archives were gathered. Results are being made available through UNESCO's Indian Ocean Tsunami Information Center in hopes of increasing scientific understanding and public awareness of the region's tsunami hazards.

Modeling tsunamis induced by retrogressive submarine landslides

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Løvholt, F.; Kim, J.; Harbitz, C. B.

2015-12-01

Enormous submarine landslides having volumes up to thousands of km3 and long run-out may cause tsunamis with widespread effects. Clay-rich landslides, such as Trænadjupet and Storegga offshore Norway commonly involve retrogressive mass and momentum release mechanisms that affect the tsunami generation. Therefore, such landslides may involve a large amount of smaller blocks. As a consequence, the failure mechanisms and release rate of the individual blocks are of importance for the tsunami generation. Previous attempts to model the tsunami generation due to retrogressive landslides are few, and limited to idealized conditions. Here, we review the basic effects of retrogression on tsunamigenesis in simple geometries. To this end, two different methods are employed for the landslide motion, a series block with pre-scribed time lags and kinematics, and a dynamic retrogressive model where the inter-block time lag is determined by the model. The effect of parameters such as time lag on wave-height, wave-length, and dispersion are discussed. Finally, we discuss how the retrogressive effects may have influenced the tsunamis due to large landslides such as the Storegga slide. The research leading to these results has received funding from the Research Council of Norway under grant number 231252 (Project TsunamiLand) and the European Union's Seventh Framework Programme (FP7/2007-2013) under grant agreement 603839 (Project ASTARTE).

Inversion of the perturbation GPS-TEC data induced by tsunamis in order to estimate the sea level anomaly.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rakoto, Virgile; Lognonné, Philippe; Rolland, Lucie; Coïsson, Pierdavide; Drilleau, Mélanie

2017-04-01

Large underwater earthquakes (Mw > 7) can transmit part of their energy to the surrounding ocean through large sea-floor motions, generating tsunamis that propagate over long distances. The forcing effect of tsunami waves on the atmosphere generate internal gravity waves which produce detectable ionospheric perturbations when they reach the upper atmosphere. Theses perturbations are frequently observed in the total electron content (TEC) measured by the multi-frequency Global navigation Satellite systems (GNSS) data (e.g., GPS,GLONASS). In this paper, we performed for the first time an inversion of the sea level anomaly using the GPS TEC data using a least square inversion (LSQ) through a normal modes summation modeling technique. Using the tsunami of the 2012 Haida Gwaii in far field as a test case, we showed that the amplitude peak to peak of the sea level anomaly inverted using this method is below 10 % error. Nevertheless, we cannot invert the second wave arriving 20 minutes later. This second wave is generaly explain by the coastal reflection which the normal modeling does not take into account. Our technique is then applied to two other tsunamis : the 2006 Kuril Islands tsunami in far field, and the 2011 Tohoku tsunami in closer field. This demonstrates that the inversion using a normal mode approach is able to estimate fairly well the amplitude of the first arrivals of the tsunami. In the future, we plan to invert in real the TEC data in order to retrieve the tsunami height.

Large Historical Tsunamigenic Earthquakes in Italy: The Neglected Tsunami Research Point of View

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Armigliato, A.; Tinti, S.; Pagnoni, G.; Zaniboni, F.

2015-12-01

It is known that tsunamis are rather rare events, especially when compared to earthquakes, and the Italian coasts are no exception. Nonetheless, a striking evidence is that 6 out of 10 earthquakes occurred in the last thousand years in Italy, and having equivalent moment magnitude equal or larger than 7 where accompanied by destructive or heavily damaging tsunamis. If we extend the lower limit of the equivalent moment magnitude down to 6.5 the percentage decreases (around 40%), but is still significant. Famous events like those occurred on 30 July 1627 in Gargano, on 11 January 1693 in eastern Sicily, and on 28 December 1908 in the Messina Straits are part of this list: they were all characterized by maximum run-ups of several meters (13 m for the 1908 tsunami), significant maximum inundation distances, and large (although not precisely quantifiable) numbers of victims. Further evidences provided in the last decade by paleo-tsunami deposit analyses help to better characterize the tsunami impact and confirm that none of the cited events can be reduced to local or secondary effects. Proper analysis and simulation of available tsunami data would then appear as an obvious part of the correct definition of the sources responsible for the largest Italian tsunamigenic earthquakes, in a process in which different datasets analyzed by different disciplines must be reconciled rather than put into contrast with each other. Unfortunately, macroseismic, seismic and geological/geomorphological observations and data typically are assigned much heavier weights, and in-land faults are often assigned larger credit than the offshore ones, even when evidence is provided by tsunami simulations that they are not at all capable of justifying the observed tsunami effects. Tsunami generation is imputed a-priori to only supposed, and sometimes even non-existing, submarine landslides. We try to summarize the tsunami research point of view on the largest Italian historical tsunamigenic earthquakes; we highlight the open problems, and suggest that tsunami observations and simulations can contribute towards their solution. This study is funded in the frame of the EU Project called ASTARTE - Assessment, STrategy And Risk reduction for Tsunamis in Europe. Grant 603839, 7th FP (ENV.2013.6.4-3).

Open-Ocean and Coastal Properties of Recent Major Tsunamis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rabinovich, A.; Thomson, R.; Zaytsev, O.

2017-12-01

The properties of six major tsunamis during the period 2009-2015 (2009 Samoa; 2010 Chile; 2011 Tohoku; 2012 Haida Gwaii; 2014 and 2015 Chile) were thoroughly examined using coastal data from British Columbia, the U.S. West Coast and Mexico, and offshore open-ocean DART and NEPTUNE stations. Based on joint spectral analyses of the tsunamis and background noise, we have developed a method to suppress the influence of local topography and to use coastal observations to determine the underlying spectra of tsunami waves in the deep ocean. The "reconstructed" open-ocean tsunami spectra were found to be in close agreement with the actual tsunami spectra evaluated from the analysis of directly measured open-ocean tsunami records. We have further used the spectral estimates to parameterize tsunamis based on their integral open-ocean spectral characteristics. Three key parameters are introduced to describe individual tsunami events: (1) Integral open-ocean energy; (2) Amplification factor (increase of the mean coastal tsunami variance relative to the open-ocean variance); and (3) Tsunami colour, the frequency composition of the open-ocean tsunami waves. In particular, we found that the strongest tsunamis, associated with large source areas (the 2010 Chile and 2011 Tohoku) are "reddish" (indicating the dominance of low-frequency motions), while small-source events (the 2009 Samoa and 2012 Haida Gwaii) are "bluish" (indicating strong prevalence of high-frequency motions).

Climatic Changes and Consequences on the French West Indies (C3AF), Hurricane and Tsunami Hazards Assessment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Arnaud, G.; Krien, Y.; Zahibo, N.; Dudon, B.

2017-12-01

Coastal hazards are among the most worrying threats of our time. In a context of climate change coupled to a large population increase, tropical areas could be the most exposed zones of the globe. In such circumstances, understanding the underlying processes can help to better predict storm surges and the associated global risks.Here we present the partial preliminary results integrated in a multidisciplinary project focused on climatic change effects over the coastal threat in the French West Indies and funded by the European Regional Development Fund. The study aims to provide a coastal hazard assessment based on hurricane surge and tsunami modeling including several aspects of climate changes that can affect hazards such as sea level rise, crustal subsidence/uplift, coastline changes etc. Several tsunamis scenarios have been simulated including tele-tsunamis to ensure a large range of tsunami hazards. Surge level of hurricane have been calculated using a large number of synthetic hurricanes to cover the actual and forecasted climate over the tropical area of Atlantic ocean. This hazard assessment will be later coupled with stakes assessed over the territory to provide risk maps.

Geologic impacts of the 2004 Indian ocean tsunami on Indonesia, Sri Lanka, and the Maldives

USGS Publications Warehouse

Richmond, B.M.; Jaffe, B.E.; Gelfenbaum, G.; Morton, R.A.

2006-01-01

The December 26, 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami was generated by a large submarine earthquake (magnitude ???9.1) with an epicenter located under the seafloor in the eastern Indian Ocean near northern Sumatra, Indonesia. The resulting tsunami was measured globally and had significant geologic impacts throughout the Indian Ocean basin. Observations of tsunami impacts, such as morphologic change, sedimentary deposits, and water-level measurements, are used to reconstruct tsunamogenic processes. Data from Sumatra, Sri Lanka, and the Maldives provide a synoptic view of tsunami characteristics from a wide range of coastal environments both near- and far-field from the tsunami origin. Impacts to the coast as a result of the tsunami varied depending upon the height of the wave at impact, orientation of the coast with regard to direction of wave approach, and local topography, bathymetry, geology, and vegetation cover. Tsunami deposits were observed in all the countries visited and can be generally characterized as relatively thin sheets (<80 cm), mostly of sand. ?? 2006 Gebru??der Borntraeger.

Uncertainty in the Modeling of Tsunami Sediment Transport

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jaffe, B. E.; Sugawara, D.; Goto, K.; Gelfenbaum, G. R.; La Selle, S.

2016-12-01

Erosion and deposition from tsunamis record information about tsunami hydrodynamics and size that can be interpreted to improve tsunami hazard assessment. A recent study (Jaffe et al., 2016) explores sources and methods for quantifying uncertainty in tsunami sediment transport modeling. Uncertainty varies with tsunami properties, study site characteristics, available input data, sediment grain size, and the model used. Although uncertainty has the potential to be large, case studies for both forward and inverse models have shown that sediment transport modeling provides useful information on tsunami inundation and hydrodynamics that can be used to improve tsunami hazard assessment. New techniques for quantifying uncertainty, such as Ensemble Kalman Filtering inversion, and more rigorous reporting of uncertainties will advance the science of tsunami sediment transport modeling. Uncertainty may be decreased with additional laboratory studies that increase our understanding of the semi-empirical parameters and physics of tsunami sediment transport, standardized benchmark tests to assess model performance, and the development of hybrid modeling approaches to exploit the strengths of forward and inverse models. As uncertainty in tsunami sediment transport modeling is reduced, and with increased ability to quantify uncertainty, the geologic record of tsunamis will become more valuable in the assessment of tsunami hazard. Jaffe, B., Goto, K., Sugawara, D., Gelfenbaum, G., and La Selle, S., "Uncertainty in Tsunami Sediment Transport Modeling", Journal of Disaster Research Vol. 11 No. 4, pp. 647-661, 2016, doi: 10.20965/jdr.2016.p0647 https://www.fujipress.jp/jdr/dr/dsstr001100040647/

Tsunami Source Estimate for the 1960 Chilean Earthquake from Near- and Far-Field Observations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ho, T.; Satake, K.; Watada, S.; Fujii, Y.

2017-12-01

The tsunami source of the 1960 Chilean earthquake was estimated from the near- and far-field tsunami data. The 1960 Chilean earthquake is known as the greatest earthquake instrumentally ever recorded. This earthquake caused a large tsunami which was recorded by 13 near-field tidal gauges in South America, and 84 far-field stations around the Pacific Ocean at the coasts of North America, Asia, and Oceania. The near-field stations had been used for estimating the tsunami source [Fujii and Satake, Pageoph, 2013]. However, far-field tsunami waveforms have not been utilized because of the discrepancy between observed and simulated waveforms. The observed waveforms at the far-field stations are found systematically arrived later than the simulated waveforms. This phenomenon has been also observed in the tsunami of the 2004 Sumatra earthquake, the 2010 Chilean earthquake, and the 2011 Tohoku earthquake. Recently, the factors for the travel time delay have been explained [Watada et al., JGR, 2014; Allgeyer and Cummins, GRL, 2014], so the far-field data are usable for tsunami source estimation. The phase correction method [Watada et al., JGR, 2014] converts the tsunami waveforms computed by the linear long wave into the dispersive waveform which accounts for the effects of elasticity of the Earth and ocean, ocean density stratification, and gravitational potential change associated with tsunami propagation. We apply the method to correct the computed waveforms. For the preliminary initial sea surface height inversion, we use 12 near-field stations and 63 far-field stations, located in the South and North America, islands in the Pacific Ocean, and the Oceania. The estimated tsunami source from near-field stations is compared with the result from both near- and far-field stations. Two estimated sources show a similar pattern: a large sea surface displacement concentrated at the south of the epicenter close to the coast and extended to south. However, the source estimated from near-field stations shows larger displacement than one from both dataset.

Relationship Between Maximum Tsunami Amplitude and Duration of Signal

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kim, Yoo Yin; Whitmore, Paul M.

2014-12-01

All available tsunami observations at tide gauges situated along the North American coast were examined to determine if there is any clear relationship between maximum amplitude and signal duration. In total, 89 historical tsunami recordings generated by 13 major earthquakes between 1952 and 2011 were investigated. Tidal variations were filtered out of the signal and the duration between the arrival time and the time at which the signals drops and stays below 0.3 m amplitude was computed. The processed tsunami time series were evaluated and a linear least-squares fit with a 95 % confidence interval was examined to compare tsunami durations with maximum tsunami amplitude in the study region. The confidence interval is roughly 20 h over the range of maximum tsunami amplitudes in which we are interested. This relatively large confidence interval likely results from variations in local resonance effects, late-arriving reflections, and other effects.

Tsunami Wave Height Estimation from GPS-Derived Ionospheric Data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rakoto, Virgile; Lognonné, Philippe; Rolland, Lucie; Coïsson, P.

2018-05-01

Large underwater earthquakes (Mw>7) can transmit part of their energy to the surrounding ocean through large seafloor motions, generating tsunamis that propagate over long distances. The forcing effect of tsunami waves on the atmosphere generates internal gravity waves that, when they reach the upper atmosphere, produce ionospheric perturbations. These perturbations are frequently observed in the total electron content (TEC) measured by multifrequency Global Navigation Satellite Systems (GNSS) such as GPS, GLONASS, and, in the future, Galileo. This paper describes the first inversion of the variation in sea level derived from GPS TEC data. We used a least squares inversion through a normal-mode summation modeling. This technique was applied to three tsunamis in far field associated to the 2012 Haida Gwaii, 2006 Kuril Islands, and 2011 Tohoku events and for Tohoku also in close field. With the exception of the Tohoku far-field case, for which the tsunami reconstruction by the TEC inversion is less efficient due to the ionospheric noise background associated to geomagnetic storm, which occurred on the earthquake day, we show that the peak-to-peak amplitude of the sea level variation inverted by this method can be compared to the tsunami wave height measured by a DART buoy with an error of less than 20%. This demonstrates that the inversion of TEC data with a tsunami normal-mode summation approach is able to estimate quite accurately the amplitude and waveform of the first tsunami arrival.

Fault zone structure and seismic reflection characteristics in zones of slow slip and tsunami earthquakes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bell, Rebecca; Henrys, Stuart; Sutherland, Rupert; Barker, Daniel; Wallace, Laura; Holden, Caroline; Power, William; Wang, Xiaoming; Morgan, Joanna; Warner, Michael; Downes, Gaye

2015-04-01

Over the last couple of decades we have learned that a whole spectrum of different fault slip behaviour takes place on subduction megathrust faults from stick-slip earthquakes to slow slip and stable sliding. Geophysical data, including seismic reflection data, can be used to characterise margins and fault zones that undergo different modes of slip. In this presentation we will focus on the Hikurangi margin, New Zealand, which exhibits marked along-strike changes in seismic behaviour and margin characteristics. Campaign and continuous GPS measurements reveal deep interseismic coupling and deep slow slip events (~30-60 km) at the southern Hikurangi margin. The northern margin, in contrast, experiences aseismic slip and shallow (<10-15 km) slow slip events (SSE) every 18-24 months with equivalent moment magnitudes of Mw 6.5-6.8. Updip of the SSE region two unusual megathrust earthquakes occurred in March and May 1947 with characteristics typical of tsunami earthquakes. The Hikurangi margin is therefore an excellent natural laboratory to study differential fault slip behaviour. Using 2D seismic reflection, magnetic anomaly and geodetic data we observe in the source areas of the 1947 tsunami earthquakes i) low amplitude interface reflectivity, ii) shallower interface relief, iii) bathymetric ridges, iv) magnetic anomaly highs and in the case of the March 1947 earthquake v) stronger geodetic coupling. We suggest that this is due to the subduction of seamounts, similar in dimensions to seamounts observed on the incoming Pacific plate, to depths of <10 km. We propose a source model for the 1947 tsunami earthquakes based on geophysical data and find that extremely low rupture velocities (c. 300 m/s) are required to model the observed large tsunami run-up heights (Bell et al. 2014, EPSL). Our study suggests that subducted topography can cause the nucleation of moderate earthquakes with complex, low velocity rupture scenarios that enhance tsunami waves, and the role of subducted rough topography in seismic hazard should not be under-estimated. 2D seismic reflection data along the northern Hikurangi margin also image thick (c. 2 km) high-amplitude reflectivity zones (HRZ) coinciding broadly with the source areas of shallow SSEs. The HRZ may be the result of high-fluid content within subduction sediments, suggesting fluids may exert an important control on the generation of SSEs by reducing effective stress (Bell et al. 2010, GJI). However, this hypothesis remains untested. In this presentation, using synthetic models, we will discuss planned future applications of an advanced seismic imaging technique called Full-waveform inversion, integrated with drilling, at subduction margins like Hikurangi to recover fault physical properties at high-resolution in 3D to examine the properties of heterogeneous fault zones.

Stand-alone tsunami alarm equipment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Katsumata, Akio; Hayashi, Yutaka; Miyaoka, Kazuki; Tsushima, Hiroaki; Baba, Toshitaka; Catalán, Patricio A.; Zelaya, Cecilia; Riquelme Vasquez, Felipe; Sanchez-Olavarria, Rodrigo; Barrientos, Sergio

2017-05-01

One of the quickest means of tsunami evacuation is transfer to higher ground soon after strong and long ground shaking. Ground shaking itself is a good initiator of the evacuation from disastrous tsunami. Longer period seismic waves are considered to be more correlated with the earthquake magnitude. We investigated the possible application of this to tsunami hazard alarm using single-site ground motion observation. Information from the mass media is sometimes unavailable due to power failure soon after a large earthquake. Even when an official alarm is available, multiple information sources of tsunami alert would help people become aware of the coming risk of a tsunami. Thus, a device that indicates risk of a tsunami without requiring other data would be helpful to those who should evacuate. Since the sensitivity of a low-cost MEMS (microelectromechanical systems) accelerometer is sufficient for this purpose, tsunami alarm equipment for home use may be easily realized. Amplitude of long-period (20 s cutoff) displacement was proposed as the threshold for the alarm based on empirical relationships among magnitude, tsunami height, hypocentral distance, and peak ground displacement of seismic waves. Application of this method to recent major earthquakes indicated that such equipment could effectively alert people to the possibility of tsunami.

Hydraulic experiment on tsunami sand deposits relating with grain size distribution and magnitude of incident waves

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yamamoto, A.; Takahashi, T.; Harada, K.; Nojima, K.

2016-12-01

A huge earthquake occurred off the Tohoku district in Japan on March 11th, 2011. A massive tsunami generated by the earthquake attacked coastal areas and caused serious damage. The tsunami disaster requires to reconsider tsunami measures in the Nankai Trough. Many of the measures are based on histories of large earthquakes and tsunamis. Because they are low frequency disasters and their historical documents are limited, tsunami sand deposits have been expected to analyze paleotsunamis. Tsunami sand deposits, however, are only used to confirm the fact of tsunamis and to determine the relative magnitudes. The thickness of sand layer and the grain size may be clues to estimate the tsunami force. Further, it could reveal the tsunami source. These results are also useful to improve the present tsunami measures. The objective of this study is to investigate the formation mechanism of tsunami sand deposits by hydraulic experiment. A two-dimensional water channel consisted of a wave maker, a flat section and a slope section. A movable bed section with various grain sizes and distribution of sand was set at the end of flat section. Bore waves of several heights transported the sand to the slope section by run-up. Water surface elevation and velocity were measured at several points. Tsunami sand deposit distribution was also measured along the slope section. The experimental result showed that the amount of tsunami sand deposit was relating with the grain size distribution and the magnitude of incident waves. Further, the number of incident waves affected the profile of tsunami sand deposits.

A Response Function Approach for Rapid Far-Field Tsunami Forecasting

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tolkova, Elena; Nicolsky, Dmitry; Wang, Dailin

2017-08-01

Predicting tsunami impacts at remote coasts largely relies on tsunami en-route measurements in an open ocean. In this work, these measurements are used to generate instant tsunami predictions in deep water and near the coast. The predictions are generated as a response or a combination of responses to one or more tsunameters, with each response obtained as a convolution of real-time tsunameter measurements and a pre-computed pulse response function (PRF). Practical implementation of this method requires tables of PRFs in a 3D parameter space: earthquake location-tsunameter-forecasted site. Examples of hindcasting the 2010 Chilean and the 2011 Tohoku-Oki tsunamis along the US West Coast and beyond demonstrated high accuracy of the suggested technology in application to trans-Pacific seismically generated tsunamis.

Tsunami recurrence in the eastern Alaska-Aleutian arc: A Holocene stratigraphic record from Chirikof Island, Alaska

USGS Publications Warehouse

Nelson, Alan R.; Briggs, Richard; Dura, Tina; Engelhart, Simon E.; Gelfenbaum, Guy; Bradley, Lee-Ann; Forman, S.L.; Vane, Christopher H.; Kelley, K.A.

2015-01-01

Despite the role of the Alaska-Aleutian megathrust as the source of some of the largest earthquakes and tsunamis, the history of its pre–twentieth century tsunamis is largely unknown west of the rupture zone of the great (magnitude, M 9.2) 1964 earthquake. Stratigraphy in core transects at two boggy lowland sites on Chirikof Island’s southwest coast preserves tsunami deposits dating from the postglacial to the twentieth century. In a 500-m-long basin 13–15 m above sea level and 400 m from the sea, 4 of 10 sandy to silty beds in a 3–5-m-thick sequence of freshwater peat were probably deposited by tsunamis. The freshwater peat sequence beneath a gently sloping alluvial fan 2 km to the east, 5–15 m above sea level and 550 m from the sea, contains 20 sandy to silty beds deposited since 3.5 ka; at least 13 were probably deposited by tsunamis. Although most of the sandy beds have consistent thicknesses (over distances of 10–265 m), sharp lower contacts, good sorting, and/or upward fining typical of tsunami deposits, the beds contain abundant freshwater diatoms, very few brackish-water diatoms, and no marine diatoms. Apparently, tsunamis traveling inland over low dunes and boggy lowland entrained largely freshwater diatoms. Abundant fragmented diatoms, and lake species in some sandy beds not found in host peat, were probably transported by tsunamis to elevations of >10 m at the eastern site. Single-aliquot regeneration optically stimulated luminescence dating of the third youngest bed is consistent with its having been deposited by the tsunami recorded at Russian hunting outposts in 1788, and with the second youngest bed being deposited by a tsunami during an upper plate earthquake in 1880. We infer from stratigraphy, 14C-dated peat deposition rates, and unpublished analyses of the island’s history that the 1938 tsunami may locally have reached an elevation of >10 m. As this is the first record of Aleutian tsunamis extending throughout the Holocene, we cannot estimate source earthquake locations or magnitudes for most tsunami-deposited beds. We infer that no more than 3 of the 23 possible tsunamis beds at both sites were deposited following upper plate faulting or submarine landslides independent of megathrust earthquakes. If so, the Semidi segment of the Alaska-Aleutian megathrust near Chirikof Island probably sent high tsunamis southward every 180–270 yr for at least the past 3500 yr.                   

Tsunami Generation from Asteroid Airburst and Ocean Impact and Van Dorn Effect

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Robertson, Darrel

2016-01-01

Airburst - In the simulations explored energy from the airburst couples very weakly with the water making tsunami dangerous over a shorter distance than the blast for asteroid sizes up to the maximum expected size that will still airburst (approx.250MT). Future areas of investigation: - Low entry angle airbursts create more cylindrical blasts and might couple more efficiently - Bursts very close to the ground will increase coupling - Inclusion of thermosphere (>80km altitude) may show some plume collapse effects over a large area although with much less pressure center dot Ocean Impact - Asteroid creates large cavity in ocean. Cavity backfills creating central jet. Oscillation between the cavity and jet sends out tsunami wave packet. - For deep ocean impact waves are deep water waves (Phase speed = 2x Group speed) - If the tsunami propagation and inundation calculations are correct for the small (<250MT) asteroids in these simulations where they impact deep ocean basins, the resulting tsunami is not a significant hazard unless particularly close to vulnerable communities. Future work: - Shallow ocean impact. - Effect of continental shelf and beach profiles - Tsunami vs. blast damage radii for impacts close to populated areas - Larger asteroids below presumed threshold of global effects (Ø200 - 800m).

Modeling the propagation, transformation and the impact of tsunami on urban areas using the coupling STOC-ML/IC/CADMAS in nested grids - Application to specific sites of Chile to improve the tsunami induced loads prediction.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mokrani, C.; Catalan, P. A.; Cienfuegos, R.; Arikawa, T.

2016-02-01

A large part of coasts around the world are affected by tsunami impacts, which supposes a challenge when designing coastal protection structures. Numerical models provide predictions of tsunami-induced loads and there time evolution, which can be used to improve sizing rules of coastal structures. However, the numerical assessment of impact loads is an hard stake. Indeed, recent experimental studies have shown that pressure dynamics generated during tsunami impacts are highly sensitive to the incident local shape of the tsunami. Therefore, high numerical resolutions and very accurate models are required to model all stages during which the tsunami shape is modified before the impact. Given the large distances involved in tsunami events, this can be disregarded in favor of computing time. The Port and Airport Research Institute (PARI) has recently developed a three-way coupled model which allows to accurately model the incident tsunami shape while maintaining reasonable computational time. This coupling approach uses three models used in nested grids (cf. Figure 1). The first one (STOC-ML) solves Nonlinear Shallow Water Equations with hydrostatic pressure. It is used to model the tsunami propagation off the coast. The second one (STOC-IC) is a 3D non-hydrostatic model, on which the free-surface position is estimated through the integrated continuity equation. It has shown to accurately describe dispersive and weakly linear effects occurring at the coast vicinity. The third model (CADMAS-SURF) solves fully three-dimensional Navier-Stokes equations and use a VOF method. Highly nonlinear, dispersive effects and wave breaking processes can be included at the wave scale and therefore, a very accurate description of the incident tsunami is provided. Each model have been separately validated from analytical and/or experimental data. The present objective is to highlight recent advances in Coastal Ocean modeling for tsunami modeling and loads prediction by applying this coupling approach to different sites of the Chilean coast. We first present validation tests to highlight the numerical abilities of this coupling. Then, two tsunami cases are considered and both near-shore processes and tsunami-induced loads on structures are analyzed.

Estimate Tsunami Flow Conditions and Large-Debris Tracks for the Design of Coastal Infrastructures along Coastlines of the U.S. Pacific Northwest

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wei, Y.; Thomas, S.; Zhou, H.; Arcas, D.; Titov, V. V.

2017-12-01

The increasing potential tsunami hazards pose great challenges for infrastructures along the coastlines of the U.S. Pacific Northwest. Tsunami impact at a coastal site is usually assessed from deterministic scenarios based on 10,000 years of geological records in the Cascadia Subduction Zone (CSZ). Aside from these deterministic methods, the new ASCE 7-16 tsunami provisions provide engineering design criteria of tsunami loads on buildings based on a probabilistic approach. This work develops a site-specific model near Newport, OR using high-resolution grids, and compute tsunami inundation depth and velocities at the study site resulted from credible probabilistic and deterministic earthquake sources in the Cascadia Subduction Zone. Three Cascadia scenarios, two deterministic scenarios, XXL1 and L1, and a 2,500-yr probabilistic scenario compliant with the new ASCE 7-16 standard, are simulated using combination of a depth-averaged shallow water model for offshore propagation and a Boussinesq-type model for onshore inundation. We speculate on the methods and procedure to obtain the 2,500-year probabilistic scenario for Newport that is compliant with the ASCE 7-16 tsunami provisions. We provide details of model results, particularly the inundation depth and flow speed for a new building, which will also be designated as a tsunami vertical evacuation shelter, at Newport, Oregon. We show that the ASCE 7-16 consistent hazards are between those obtained from deterministic L1 and XXL1 scenarios, and the greatest impact on the building may come from later waves. As a further step, we utilize the inundation model results to numerically compute tracks of large vessels in the vicinity of the building site and estimate if these vessels will impact on the building site during the extreme XXL1 and ASCE 7-16 hazard-consistent scenarios. Two-step study is carried out first to study tracks of massless particles and then large vessels with assigned mass considering drag force, inertial force, ship grounding and mooring. The simulation results show that none of the large vessels will impact on the building site in all tested scenarios.

Irian Jaya earthquake and tsunami cause serious damage

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Imamura, Fumihiko; Subandono, D.; Watson, G.; Moore, A.; Takahashi, T.; Matsutomi, H.; Hidayat, R.

On February 17,1996, at 0559 UT, a major earthquake with moment magnitude (Mw) 7.9 killed 107 people and caused major damage at Biak Island, 30-40 km southwest of the earthquake's epicenter (Figures 1 and 2). A devastating tsunami washed away all of the houses at Korim, a small village located in a narrow bay facing directly towards the incoming wave, and it left behind clear evidence of sand erosion and deposition that indicated how far the tsunami advanced. An unexpectedly large tsunami run-up of 7.7 m was measured at Wardo in western Biak, which faces away from the primary tsunami source. This high run-up may have been caused by a local submarine landslide.

Tsunami evacuation mathematical model for the city of Padang

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Kusdiantara, R.; Hadianti, R.; Badri Kusuma, M. S.

2012-05-22

Tsunami is a series of wave trains which travels with high speed on the sea surface. This traveling wave is caused by the displacement of a large volume of water after the occurrence of an underwater earthquake or volcano eruptions. The speed of tsunami decreases when it reaches the sea shore along with the increase of its amplitudes. Two large tsunamis had occurred in the last decades in Indonesia with huge casualties and large damages. Indonesian Tsunami Early Warning System has been installed along the west coast of Sumatra. This early warning system will give about 10-15 minutes to evacuatemore » people from high risk regions to the safe areas. Here in this paper, a mathematical model for Tsunami evacuation is presented with the city of Padang as a study case. In the model, the safe areas are chosen from the existing and selected high rise buildings, low risk region with relatively high altitude and (proposed to be built) a flyover ring road. Each gathering points are located in the radius of approximately 1 km from the ring road. The model is formulated as an optimization problem with the total normalized evacuation time as the objective function. The constraints consist of maximum allowable evacuation time in each route, maximum capacity of each safe area, and the number of people to be evacuated. The optimization problem is solved numerically using linear programming method with Matlab. Numerical results are shown for various evacuation scenarios for the city of Padang.« less

Fast Identification of Near-Trench Earthquakes Along the Mexican Subduction Zone Based on Characteristics of Ground Motion in Mexico City

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Perez-Campos, X.; Singh, S. K.; Arroyo, D.; Rodríguez, Q.; Iglesias, A.

2015-12-01

The disastrous 1985 Michoacan earthquake gave rise to a seismic alert system for Mexico City which became operational in 1991. Initially limited to earthquakes along the Guerrero coast, the system now has a much wider coverage. Also, the 2004 Sumatra earthquake exposed the need for a tsunami early warning along the Mexican subduction zone. A fast identification of near-trench earthquakes along this zone may be useful in issuing a reliable early tsunami alert. The confusion caused by low PGA for the magnitude of an earthquake, leading to "missed" seismic alert, would be averted if its near-trench origin can be quickly established. It may also help reveal the spatial extent and degree of seismic coupling on the near-trench portion of the plate interface. This would lead to a better understanding of tsunami potential and seismic hazard along the Mexican subduction zone. We explore three methods for quick detection of near-trench earthquakes, testing them on recordings of 65 earthquakes at station CU in Mexico City (4.8 ≤Mw≤8.0; 270≤R≤615 km). The first method is based on the ratio of total to high-frequency energy, ER (Shapiro et al., 1998). The second method is based on parameter Sa*(6) which is the pseudo-acceleration response spectrum with 5% damping, Sa, at 6 s normalized by the PGA. The third parameter is the PGA residual, RESN, at CU, with respect to a newly-derived ground motion prediction equation at CU for coastal shallow-dipping thrust earthquakes following a bayesian approach. Since the near-trench earthquakes are relatively deficient in high-frequency radiation, we expect ER and Sa*(6) to be relatively large and RESN to be negative for such events. Tests on CU recordings show that if ER ≥ 100 and/or Sa*(6) ≥ 0.70, then the earthquake is near trench; for these events RESN ≤ 0. Such an event has greater tsunami potential. Few misidentifications and missed events are most probably a consequence of poor location, although unusual depth and source characteristics may also be responsible in some cases. We propose routine computation of these parameters (along with location and magnitude) by the National Seismological Service of Mexico and dissemination of the information to other interested agencies which are in charge of tsunami alert, seismic alert, and near real time ground motion intensity maps for Mexico City.

Development of Real-time Tsunami Inundation Forecast Using Ocean Bottom Tsunami Networks along the Japan Trench

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Aoi, S.; Yamamoto, N.; Suzuki, W.; Hirata, K.; Nakamura, H.; Kunugi, T.; Kubo, T.; Maeda, T.

2015-12-01

In the 2011 Tohoku earthquake, in which huge tsunami claimed a great deal of lives, the initial tsunami forecast based on hypocenter information estimated using seismic data on land were greatly underestimated. From this lesson, NIED is now constructing S-net (Seafloor Observation Network for Earthquakes and Tsunamis along the Japan Trench) which consists of 150 ocean bottom observatories with seismometers and pressure gauges (tsunamimeters) linked by fiber optic cables. To take full advantage of S-net, we develop a new methodology of real-time tsunami inundation forecast using ocean bottom observation data and construct a prototype system that implements the developed forecasting method for the Pacific coast of Chiba prefecture (Sotobo area). We employ a database-based approach because inundation is a strongly non-linear phenomenon and its calculation costs are rather heavy. We prepare tsunami scenario bank in advance, by constructing the possible tsunami sources, and calculating the tsunami waveforms at S-net stations, coastal tsunami heights and tsunami inundation on land. To calculate the inundation for target Sotobo area, we construct the 10-m-mesh precise elevation model with coastal structures. Based on the sensitivities analyses, we construct the tsunami scenario bank that efficiently covers possible tsunami scenarios affecting the Sotobo area. A real-time forecast is carried out by selecting several possible scenarios which can well explain real-time tsunami data observed at S-net from tsunami scenario bank. An advantage of our method is that tsunami inundations are estimated directly from the actual tsunami data without any source information, which may have large estimation errors. In addition to the forecast system, we develop Web services, APIs, and smartphone applications and brush them up through social experiments to provide the real-time tsunami observation and forecast information in easy way to understand toward urging people to evacuate.

Sedimentological effects of tsunamis, with particular reference to impact-generated and volcanogenic waves

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Bourgeois, Joanne; Wiberg, Patricia L.

1988-01-01

Impulse-generated waves (tsunamis) may be produced, at varying scales and global recurrence intervals (RI), by several processes. Meteorite-water impacts will produce tsunamis, and asteroid-scale impacts with associated mega-tsunamis may occur. A bolide-water impact would undoubtedly produce a major tsunami, whose sedimentological effects should be recognizable. Even a bolide-land impact might trigger major submarine landslides and thus tsunamis. In all posulated scenarios for the K/T boundary event, then, tsunamis are expected, and where to look for them must be determined, and how to distinguish deposits from different tsunamis. Also, because tsunamis decrease in height as they move away from their source, the proximal effects will differ by perhaps orders of magnitude from distal effects. Data on the characteristics of tsunamis at their origin are scarce. Some observations exist for tsunamis generated by thermonuclear explosions and for seismogenic tsunamis, and experimental work was conducted on impact-generated tsunamis. All tsunamis of interest have wave-lengths of 0(100) km and thus behave as shallow-water waves in all ocean depths. Typical wave periods are 0(10 to 100) minutes. The effect of these tsunamis can be estimated in the marine and coastal realm by calculating boundary shear stresses (expressed as U*, the shear velocity). An event layer at the K/T boundary in Texas occurs in mid-shelf muds. Only a large, long-period wave with a wave height of 0(50) m, is deemed sufficient to have produced this layer. Such wave heights imply a nearby volcanic explosion on the scale of Krakatau or larger, or a nearby submarine landslide also of great size, or a bolide-water impact in the ocean.

Source of the 1730 Chilean earthquake from historical records: Implications for the future tsunami hazard on the coast of Metropolitan Chile

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Carvajal, M.; Cisternas, M.; Catalán, P. A.

2017-05-01

Historical records of an earthquake that occurred in 1730 affecting Metropolitan Chile provide essential clues on the source characteristics for the future earthquakes in the region. The earthquake and tsunami of 1730 have been recognized as the largest to occur in Metropolitan Chile since the beginning of written history. The earthquake destroyed buildings along >1000 km of the coast and produced a large tsunami that caused damage as far as Japan. Here its source characteristics are inferred by comparing local tsunami inundations computed from hypothetical earthquakes with varying magnitude and depth, with those inferred from historical observations. It is found that a 600-800 km long rupture involving average slip amounts of 10-14 m (Mw 9.1-9.3) best explains the observed tsunami heights and inundations. This large earthquake magnitude is supported by the 1730 tsunami heights inferred in Japan. The inundation results combined with local uplift reports suggest a southward increase of the slip depth along the rupture zone of the 1730 earthquake. While shallow slip on the area to the north of the 2010 earthquake rupture zone is required to explain the reported inundation, only deeper slip at this area can explain the coastal uplift reports. Since the later earthquakes of the region involved little or no slip at shallow depths, the near-future earthquakes on Metropolitan Chile could release the shallow slip accumulated since 1730 and thus lead to strong tsunami excitation. Moderate shaking from a shallow earthquake could delay tsunami evacuation for the most populated coastal region of Chile.

Fault Slip Distribution and Optimum Sea Surface Displacement of the 2017 Tehuantepec Earthquake in Mexico (Mw 8.2) Estimated from Tsunami Waveforms

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gusman, A. R.; Satake, K.; Mulia, I. E.

2017-12-01

An intraplate normal fault earthquake (Mw 8.2) occurred on 8 September 2017 in the Tehuantepec seismic gap of the Middle America Trench. The submarine earthquake generated a tsunami which was recorded by coastal tide gauges and offshore DART buoys. We used the tsunami waveforms recorded at 16 stations to estimate the fault slip distribution and an optimum sea surface displacement of the earthquake. A steep fault dipping to the northeast with strike of 315°, dip of 73°and rake of -96° based on the USGS W-phase moment tensor solution was assumed for the slip inversion. To independently estimate the sea surface displacement without assuming earthquake fault parameters, we used the B-spline function for the unit sources. The distribution of the unit sources was optimized by a Genetic Algorithm - Pattern Search (GA-PS) method. Tsunami waveform inversion resolves a spatially compact region of large slip (4-10 m) with a dimension of 100 km along the strike and 80 km along the dip in the depth range between 40 km and 110 km. The seismic moment calculated from the fault slip distribution with assumed rigidity of 6 × 1010 Nm-2 is 2.46 × 1021 Nm (Mw 8.2). The optimum displacement model suggests that the sea surface was uplifted up to 0.5 m and subsided down to -0.8 m. The deep location of large fault slip may be the cause of such small sea surface displacements. The simulated tsunami waveforms from the optimum sea surface displacement can reproduce the observations better than those from fault slip distribution; the normalized root mean square misfit for the sea surface displacement is 0.89, while that for the fault slip distribution is 1.04. We simulated the tsunami propagation using the optimum sea surface displacement model. Large tsunami amplitudes up to 2.5 m were predicted to occur inside and around a lagoon located between Salina Cruz and Puerto Chiapas. Figure 1. a) Sea surface displacement for the 2017 Tehuantepec earthquake estimated by tsunami waveforms. b) Map of simulated maximum tsunami amplitude and comparison between observed (blue circles) and simulated (red circles) tsunami maximum amplitude along the coast.

Preliminary investigation of the hazard faced by Western Australia from tsunami generated along the Sunda Arc

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Burbidge, D.; Cummins, P. R.

2005-12-01

Since the Boxing Day tsunami various countries surrounding the Indian Ocean have been investigating the potential hazard from trans-Indian Ocean tsunami generated along the Sunda Arc, south of Indonesia. This study presents some preliminary estimates of the tsunami hazard faced by Western Australia from tsunami generated along the Arc. To estimate the hazard, a suite of tsunami spaced evenly along the subduction zone to the south of Indonesia were numerically modelled. Offshore wave heights from tsunami generated in this region are significantly higher along northwestern part of the Western Australian coast from Exmouth to the Kimberly than they are along the rest of the coast south of Exmouth. Due to the offshore bathymetry, the area around Onslow in particular may face a higher tsunami than other areas the West Australian coast. Earthquakes between Java and Timor are likely to produce the greatest hazard to northwest WA. Earthquakes off Sumatra are likely the main source of tsunami hazard to locations south of Exmouth, however the hazard here is likely to be lower than that along the north western part of the West Australian coast. Tsunami generated by other sources (eg large intra-plate events, volcanoes, landslides and asteroids) could threaten other parts of the coast.

Distribution and sedimentary characteristics of tsunami deposits along the Cascadia margin of western North America

USGS Publications Warehouse

Peters, R.; Jaffe, B.; Gelfenbaum, G.

2007-01-01

Tsunami deposits have been found at more than 60 sites along the Cascadia margin of Western North America, and here we review and synthesize their distribution and sedimentary characteristics based on the published record. Cascadia tsunami deposits are best preserved, and most easily identified, in low-energy coastal environments such as tidal marshes, back-barrier marshes and coastal lakes where they occur as anomalous layers of sand within peat and mud. They extend up to a kilometer inland in open coastal settings and several kilometers up river valleys. They are distinguished from other sediments by a combination of sedimentary character and stratigraphic context. Recurrence intervals range from 300-1000??years with an average of 500-600??years. The tsunami deposits have been used to help evaluate and mitigate tsunami hazards in Cascadia. They show that the Cascadia subduction zone is prone to great earthquakes that generate large tsunamis. The inclusion of tsunami deposits on inundation maps, used in conjunction with results from inundation models, allows a more accurate assessment of areas subject to tsunami inundation. The application of sediment transport models can help estimate tsunami flow velocity and wave height, parameters which are necessary to help establish evacuation routes and plan development in tsunami prone areas. ?? 2007.

Towards a probabilistic tsunami hazard analysis for the Gulf of Cadiz

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Løvholt, Finn; Urgeles, Roger

2017-04-01

Landslides and volcanic flank collapses constitute a significant portion of all known tsunami sources, and they are less constrained geographically than earthquakes as they are not tied to large fault zones. While landslides have mostly produced local tsunamis historically, prehistoric evidence show that landslides can also produce ocean wide tsunamis. Because the landslide induced tsunami probability is more difficult to quantify than the one induced by earthquakes, our understanding of the landslide tsunami hazard is less understood. To improve our understanding and methodologies to deal with this hazard, we here present results and methods for a preliminary landslide probabilistic tsunami hazard assessment (LPTHA) for the Gulf of Cadiz for submerged landslides. The present literature on LPTHA is sparse, and studies have so far been separated into two groups, the first based on observed magnitude frequency distributions (MFD's), the second based on simplified geotechnical slope stability analysis. We argue that the MFD based approach is best suited when a sufficient amount of data covering a wide range of volumes is available, although uncertainties in the dating of the landslides often represent a potential large source of bias. To this end, the relatively rich availability of landslide data in the Gulf of Cadiz makes this area suitable for developing and testing LPTHA models. In the presentation, we will first explore the landslide data and statistics, including different spatial factors such as slope versus volume relationships, faults etc. Examples of how random realizations can be used to distribute tsunami source over the study area will be demonstrated. Furthermore, computational strategies for simulating both the landslide and the tsunami generation in a simplified way will be described. To this end, we use depth averaged viscoplastic landslide model coupled to the numerical tsunami model to represent a set of idealized tsunami sources, which are in turn put into a regional tsunami model for computing the tsunami propagation. We devote attention to discussing the epistemic uncertainty and sensitivity of the landslide input parameters, and how these may affect the hazard assessment. As the full variability of the landslide parameters cannot be endured, we show that there is a considerable challenge related to the multiple landslide parameter variability. Finally, we discuss some logical next steps in the analysis, as well as possible sources of error.

Scenario-Based Tsunami Hazard Assessment from Earthquake and Landslide Sources for Eastern Sicily, Italy

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tinti, S.; Armigliato, A.; Pagnoni, G.; Paparo, M. A.; Zaniboni, F.

2016-12-01

Eastern Sicily was theatre of the most damaging tsunamis that ever struck Italy, such as the 11 January 1693 and the 28 December 1908 tsunamis. Tectonic studies and paleotsunami investigations extended historical records of tsunami occurrence back of several thousands of years. Tsunami sources relevant for eastern Sicily are both local and remote, the latter being located in the Ionian Greece and in the Western Hellenic Arc. Here in 365 A.D. a large earthquake generated a tsunami that was seen in the whole eastern and central Mediterranean including the Sicilian coasts. The objective of this study is the evaluation of tsunami hazard along the coast of eastern Sicily, central Mediterranean, Italy via a scenario-based technique, which has been preferred to the PTHA approach because, when dealing with tsunamis induced by landslides, uncertainties are usually so large to undermine the PTHA results. Tsunamis of earthquake and landslide origin are taken into account for the entire coast of Sicily, from the Messina to the Siracusa provinces. Landslides are essentially local sources and can occur underwater along the unstable flanks of the Messina Straits or along the steep slopes of the Hyblaean-Malta escarpment. The method is based on a two-step procedure. After a preliminary step where very many earthquake and landslide sources are taken into account and tsunamis are computed on a low-resolution grid, the worst-case scenarios are selected and tsunamis are simulated on a finer-resolution grid allowing for a better calculation of coastal wave height and tsunami penetration. The final result of our study is given in the form of aggregate fields computed from individual scenarios. Also interesting is the contribution of the various tsunami sources in different localities along the coast. It is found that the places with the highest level of hazard are the low lands of La Playa south of Catania and of the Bay of Augusta, which is in agreement also with historical observations. It is further found that remote seismic sources from the Hellenic Arc are the dominant factor of hazard in several places, and that, though in general earthquakes contribute to hazard more than landslides, in some places the opposite is true.

Impacts of tides on tsunami propagation due to potential Nankai Trough earthquakes in the Seto Inland Sea, Japan

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lee, Han Soo; Shimoyama, Tomohisa; Popinet, Stéphane

2015-10-01

The impacts of tides on extreme tsunami propagation due to potential Nankai Trough earthquakes in the Seto Inland Sea (SIS), Japan, are investigated through numerical experiments. Tsunami experiments are conducted based on five scenarios that consider tides at four different phases, such as flood, high, ebb, and low tides. The probes that were selected arbitrarily in the Bungo and Kii Channels show less significant effects of tides on tsunami heights and the arrival times of the first waves than those that experience large tidal ranges in inner basins and bays of the SIS. For instance, the maximum tsunami height and the arrival time at Toyomaesi differ by more than 0.5 m and nearly 1 h, respectively, depending on the tidal phase. The uncertainties defined in terms of calculated maximum tsunami heights due to tides illustrate that the calculated maximum tsunami heights in the inner SIS with standing tides have much larger uncertainties than those of two channels with propagating tides. Particularly in Harima Nada, the uncertainties due to the impacts of tides are greater than 50% of the tsunami heights without tidal interaction. The results recommend simulate tsunamis together with tides in shallow water environments to reduce the uncertainties involved with tsunami modeling and predictions for tsunami hazards preparedness. This article was corrected on 26 OCT 2015. See the end of the full text for details.

Geological record of tsunami inundations in Pantano Morghella (south-eastern Sicily) both from near and far-field sources

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gerardi, F.; Smedile, A.; Pirrotta, C.; Barbano, M. S.; De Martini, P. M.; Pinzi, S.; Gueli, A. M.; Ristuccia, G. M.; Stella, G.; Troja, S. O.

2012-04-01

Analysis of tsunami deposits from the Pantano Morghella area provided geological evidence for two inundations occurred along the south-eastern Ionian coast of Sicily. Pantano Morghella is a large pond characterised by a fine-grained sedimentation indicating a low-energy depositional environment. Two anomalous yellow sandy layers found at different depths indicate the occurrence of high-energy marine inundations. We studied sedimentological and paleontological features of the anomalous deposits as well as their spatial distribution observing the following properties: different facies with respect to the local stratigraphic sequence; erosive bases, rip-up clasts and broken elements testifying violent deposition mechanisms; macro and micro fauna of marine environment; relatively constant thickness throughout most of the depositional zone with thinning at the distal end; large sand sheets that extend inland. These observations, jointly with their infrequency in the sedimentary record and the age indicating a fast deposition, provided strong evidence for tsunami inundations. Correlations between anomalous layers and historical tsunamis are supported by radiocarbon and OSL dating results. The younger deposit is likely due to the 1908 near-source tsunami, whereas the flooding of the oldest event is most likely associated with a far and large source, the Crete 365 AD earthquake.

Interviewing insights regarding the fatalities inflicted by the 2011 Great East Japan Earthquake

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ando, M.; Ishida, M.; Hayashi, Y.; Mizuki, C.; Nishikawa, Y.; Tu, Y.

2013-09-01

One hundred fifty survivors of the 11 March 2011 Great East Japan Earthquake (Tohoku-oki earthquake) (Mw = 9.0) were interviewed to study the causes of deaths from the associated tsunami in coastal areas of Tohoku. The first official tsunami warning underestimated the height of the tsunami and 40% of the interviewees did not obtain this warning due to immediate blackouts and a lack of communication after the earthquake. Many chose to remain in dangerous locations based on the underestimated warning and their experiences with previous smaller tsunamis and/or due to misunderstanding the mitigating effects of nearby breakwaters in blocking incoming tsunamis. Some delayed their evacuation to perform family safety checks, and in many situations, the people affected misunderstood the risks involved in tsunamis. In this area, three large tsunamis have struck in the 115 yr preceding the 2011 tsunami. These tsunamis remained in the collective memory of communities, and numerous measures against future tsunami damage, such as breakwaters and tsunami evacuation drills, had been implemented. Despite these preparedness efforts, approximately 18 500 deaths and cases of missing persons occurred. The death rate with the age of 65 and above was particularly high, four times higher than that with other age groups. These interviews indicate that deaths resulted from a variety of reasons, but if residents had taken immediate action after the major ground motion stopped, most residents might have been saved. Education about the science behind earthquakes and tsunamis could help save more lives in the future.

How Do Tides and Tsunamis Interact in a Highly Energetic Channel? The Case of Canal Chacao, Chile

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Winckler, Patricio; Sepúlveda, Ignacio; Aron, Felipe; Contreras-López, Manuel

2017-12-01

This study aims at understanding the role of tidal level, speed, and direction in tsunami propagation in highly energetic tidal channels. The main goal is to comprehend whether tide-tsunami interactions enhance/reduce elevation, currents speeds, and arrival times, when compared to pure tsunami models and to simulations in which tides and tsunamis are linearly superimposed. We designed various numerical experiments to compute the tsunami propagation along Canal Chacao, a highly energetic channel in the Chilean Patagonia lying on a subduction margin prone to megathrust earthquakes. Three modeling approaches were implemented under the same seismic scenario: a tsunami model with a constant tide level, a series of six composite models in which independent tide and tsunami simulations are linearly superimposed, and a series of six tide-tsunami nonlinear interaction models (full models). We found that hydrodynamic patterns differ significantly among approaches, being the composite and full models sensitive to both the tidal phase at which the tsunami is triggered and the local depth of the channel. When compared to full models, composite models adequately predicted the maximum surface elevation, but largely overestimated currents. The amplitude and arrival time of the tsunami-leading wave computed with the full model was found to be strongly dependent on the direction of the tidal current and less responsive to the tide level and the tidal current speed. These outcomes emphasize the importance of addressing more carefully the interactions of tides and tsunamis on hazard assessment studies.

Possible worst-case tsunami scenarios around the Marmara Sea from combined earthquake and landslide sources

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Latcharote, Panon; Suppasri, Anawat; Imamura, Fumihiko; Aytore, Betul; Yalciner, Ahmet Cevdet

2016-12-01

This study evaluates tsunami hazards in the Marmara Sea from possible worst-case tsunami scenarios that are from submarine earthquakes and landslides. In terms of fault-generated tsunamis, seismic ruptures can propagate along the North Anatolian Fault (NAF), which has produced historical tsunamis in the Marmara Sea. Based on the past studies, which consider fault-generated tsunamis and landslide-generated tsunamis individually, future scenarios are expected to generate tsunamis, and submarine landslides could be triggered by seismic motion. In addition to these past studies, numerical modeling has been applied to tsunami generation and propagation from combined earthquake and landslide sources. In this study, tsunami hazards are evaluated from both individual and combined cases of submarine earthquakes and landslides through numerical tsunami simulations with a grid size of 90 m for bathymetry and topography data for the entire Marmara Sea region and validated with historical observations from the 1509 and 1894 earthquakes. This study implements TUNAMI model with a two-layer model to conduct numerical tsunami simulations, and the numerical results show that the maximum tsunami height could reach 4.0 m along Istanbul shores for a full submarine rupture of the NAF, with a fault slip of 5.0 m in the eastern and western basins of the Marmara Sea. The maximum tsunami height for landslide-generated tsunamis from small, medium, and large of initial landslide volumes (0.15, 0.6, and 1.5 km3, respectively) could reach 3.5, 6.0, and 8.0 m, respectively, along Istanbul shores. Possible tsunamis from submarine landslides could be significantly higher than those from earthquakes, depending on the landslide volume significantly. These combined earthquake and landslide sources only result in higher tsunami amplitudes for small volumes significantly because of amplification within the same tsunami amplitude scale (3.0-4.0 m). Waveforms from all the coasts around the Marmara Sea indicate that other residential areas might have had a high risk of tsunami hazards from submarine landslides, which can generate higher tsunami amplitudes and shorter arrival times, compared to Istanbul.

Role of sediment transport model to improve the tsunami numerical simulation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sugawara, D.; Yamashita, K.; Takahashi, T.; Imamura, F.

2015-12-01

Are we overlooking an important factor for improved numerical prediction of tsunamis in shallow sea to onshore? In this presentation, several case studies on numerical modeling of tsunami-induced sediment transport are reviewed, and the role of sediment transport models for tsunami inundation simulation is discussed. Large-scale sediment transport and resulting geomorphological change occurred in the coastal areas of Tohoku, Japan, due to the 2011 Tohoku Earthquake Tsunami. Datasets obtained after the tsunami, including geomorphological and sedimentological data as well as hydrodynamic records, allows us to validate the numerical model in detail. The numerical modeling of the sediment transport by the 2011 tsunami depicted the severest erosion of sandy beach, as well as characteristic spatial patterns of erosion and deposition on the seafloor, which have taken place in Hirota Bay, Sanriku Coast. Quantitative comparisons of observation and simulation of the geomorphological changes in Sanriku Coast and Sendai Bay showed that the numerical model can predict the volumes of erosion and deposition with a right order. In addition, comparison of the simulation with aerial video footages demonstrated the numerical model is capable of tracking the overall processes of tsunami sediment transport. Although tsunami-induced sediment erosion and deposition sometimes cause significant geomorphological change, and may enhance tsunami hydrodynamic impact to the coastal zones, most tsunami simulations do not include sediment transport modeling. A coupled modeling of tsunami hydrodynamics and sediment transport draws a different picture of tsunami hazard, comparing with simple hydrodynamic modeling of tsunami inundation. Since tsunami-induced erosion, deposition and geomorphological change sometimes extend more than several kilometers across the coastline, two-dimensional horizontal model are typically used for the computation of tsunami hydrodynamics and sediment transport. Limitations of the conventional model and future challenges are discussed regarding further improvement of numerical modeling of tsunami and sediment transport. Improved numerical modeling may provide useful information for assessing sediment-related damages and planning post-disaster recovery.

A Hybrid Tsunami Risk Model for Japan

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Haseemkunju, A. V.; Smith, D. F.; Khater, M.; Khemici, O.; Betov, B.; Scott, J.

2014-12-01

Around the margins of the Pacific Ocean, denser oceanic plates slipping under continental plates cause subduction earthquakes generating large tsunami waves. The subducting Pacific and Philippine Sea plates create damaging interplate earthquakes followed by huge tsunami waves. It was a rupture of the Japan Trench subduction zone (JTSZ) and the resultant M9.0 Tohoku-Oki earthquake that caused the unprecedented tsunami along the Pacific coast of Japan on March 11, 2011. EQECAT's Japan Earthquake model is a fully probabilistic model which includes a seismo-tectonic model describing the geometries, magnitudes, and frequencies of all potential earthquake events; a ground motion model; and a tsunami model. Within the much larger set of all modeled earthquake events, fault rupture parameters for about 24000 stochastic and 25 historical tsunamigenic earthquake events are defined to simulate tsunami footprints using the numerical tsunami model COMCOT. A hybrid approach using COMCOT simulated tsunami waves is used to generate inundation footprints, including the impact of tides and flood defenses. Modeled tsunami waves of major historical events are validated against observed data. Modeled tsunami flood depths on 30 m grids together with tsunami vulnerability and financial models are then used to estimate insured loss in Japan from the 2011 tsunami. The primary direct report of damage from the 2011 tsunami is in terms of the number of buildings damaged by municipality in the tsunami affected area. Modeled loss in Japan from the 2011 tsunami is proportional to the number of buildings damaged. A 1000-year return period map of tsunami waves shows high hazard along the west coast of southern Honshu, on the Pacific coast of Shikoku, and on the east coast of Kyushu, primarily associated with major earthquake events on the Nankai Trough subduction zone (NTSZ). The highest tsunami hazard of more than 20m is seen on the Sanriku coast in northern Honshu, associated with the JTSZ.

Unique and remarkable dilatometer measurements of pyroclastic flow generated tsunamis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mattioli, G. S.; Voight, B.; Linde, A. T.; Sacks, I. S.; Watts, P.; Widiwijayanti, C.; Young, S. R.; Hidayat, D.; Elsworth, D.; Malin, P. E.; Shalev, E.; van Boskirk, E.; Johnston, W.; Sparks, R. S. J.; Neuberg, J.; Bass, V.; Dunkley, P.; Herd, R.; Syers, T.; Williams, P.; Williams, D.

2007-01-01

Pyroclastic flows entering the sea may cause tsunamis at coastal volcanoes worldwide, but geophysically monitored field occurrences are rare. We document the process of tsunami generation during a prolonged gigantic collapse of the Soufrière Hills volcano lava dome on Montserrat on 12 13 July 2003. Tsunamis were initiated by large-volume pyroclastic flows entering the ocean. We reconstruct the collapse from seismic records and report unique and remarkable borehole dilatometer observations, which recorded clearly the passage of wave packets at periods of 250 500 s over several hours. Strain signals are consistent in period and amplitude with water loading from passing tsunamis; each wave packet can be correlated with individual pyroclastic flow packages recorded by seismic data, proving that multiple tsunamis were initiated by pyroclastic flows. Any volcano within a few kilometers of water and capable of generating hot pyroclastic flows or cold debris flows with volumes greater than 5 × 106 m3 may generate significant and possibly damaging tsunamis during future eruptions.

Our fingerprint in tsunami deposits - anthropogenic markers as a new tsunami identification tool

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bellanova, P.; Schwarzbauer, J.; Reicherter, K. R.; Jaffe, B. E.; Szczucinski, W.

2016-12-01

Several recent geochemical studies have focused on the use of inorganic indicators to evaluate a tsunami origin of sediment in the geologic record. However, tsunami transport not only particulate sedimentary material from marine to terrestrial areas (and vice versa), but also associated organic material. Thus, tsunami deposits may be characterized by organic-geochemical parameters. Recently increased attention has been given to the use of natural organic substances (biomarkers) to identify tsunami deposits. To date no studies have been made investigating anthropogenic organic indicators in recent tsunami deposits. Anthropogenic organic markers are more sensitive and reliable markers compared to other tracers due to their specific molecular structural properties and higher source specificity. In this study we evaluate whether anthropogenic substances are useful indicators for determining whether an area has been inundated by a tsunami. We chose the Sendai Plain and Sanemoura and Oppa Bays, Japan, as study sites because the destruction of infrastructure by flooding released environmental pollutants (e.g., fuels, fats, tarmac, plastics, heavy metals, etc.) contaminating large areas of the coastal zone during the 2011 Tohoku-oki tsunami. Organic compounds from the tsunami deposits are extracted from tsunami sediment and compared with the organic signature of unaffected pre-tsunami samples using gas chromatography-mass spectrometry (GS/MS) based analyses. For the anthropogenic markers, compounds such as soil derived pesticides (DDT), source specific PAHs, halogenated aromatics from industrial sources were detected and used to observe the inland extent and the impact of the Tohoku-oki tsunami on the coastal region around Sendai.

Using Interdisciplinary Research Methods to Revise and Strengthen the NWS TsunamiReadyTM Community Recognition Program

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Scott, C.; Gregg, C. E.; Ritchie, L.; Stephen, M.; Farnham, C.; Fraser, S. A.; Gill, D.; Horan, J.; Houghton, B. F.; Johnson, V.; Johnston, D.

2013-12-01

The National Tsunami Hazard Mitigation Program (NTHMP) partnered with the National Weather Service (NWS) in early 2000 to create the TsunamiReadyTM Community Recognition program. TsunamiReadyTM, modeled after the older NWS StormReadyTM program, is designed to help cities, towns, counties, universities and other large sites in coastal areas reduce the potential for disastrous tsunami-related consequences. To achieve TsunamiReadyTM recognition, communities must meet certain criteria aimed at better preparing a community for tsunami, including specific actions within the following categories: communications and coordination, tsunami warning reception, local warning dissemination, community preparedness, and administration. Using multidisciplinary research methods and strategies from Public Health; Psychology; Political, Social and Physical Sciences and Evaluation, our research team is working directly with a purposive sample of community stakeholders in collaboration and feedback focus group sessions. Invitation to participate is based on a variety of factors including but not limited to an individual's role as a formal or informal community leader (e.g., in business, government, civic organizations), or their organization or agency affiliation to emergency management and response. Community organizing and qualitative research methods are being used to elicit discussion regarding TsunamiReadyTM requirements and the division of requirements based on some aspect of tsunami hazard, vulnerability and risk, such as proximity to active or passive plate margins or subduction zone generated tsunamis versus earthquake-landslide generated tsunamis . The primary aim of this research is to use social science to revise and refine the NWS TsunamiReadyTM Guidelines in an effort to better prepare communities to reduce risk to tsunamis.

Marine natural hazards in coastal zone: observations, analysis and modelling (Plinius Medal Lecture)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Didenkulova, Ira

2010-05-01

Giant surface waves approaching the coast frequently cause extensive coastal flooding, destruction of coastal constructions and loss of lives. Such waves can be generated by various phenomena: strong storms and cyclones, underwater earthquakes, high-speed ferries, aerial and submarine landslides. The most famous examples of such events are the catastrophic tsunami in the Indian Ocean, which occurred on 26 December 2004 and hurricane Katrina (28 August 2005) in the Atlantic Ocean. The huge storm in the Baltic Sea on 9 January 2005, which produced unexpectedly long waves in many areas of the Baltic Sea and the influence of unusually high surge created by long waves from high-speed ferries, should also be mentioned as examples of regional marine natural hazards connected with extensive runup of certain types of waves. The processes of wave shoaling and runup for all these different marine natural hazards (tsunami, coastal freak waves, ship waves) are studied based on rigorous solutions of nonlinear shallow-water theory. The key and novel results presented here are: i) parameterization of basic formulas for extreme runup characteristics for bell-shape waves, showing that they weakly depend on the initial wave shape, which is usually unknown in real sea conditions; ii) runup analysis of periodic asymmetric waves with a steep front, as such waves are penetrating inland over large distances and with larger velocities than symmetric waves; iii) statistical analysis of irregular wave runup demonstrating that wave nonlinearity nearshore does not influence on the probability distribution of the velocity of the moving shoreline and its moments, and influences on the vertical displacement of the moving shoreline (runup). Wave runup on convex beaches and in narrow bays, which allow abnormal wave amplification is also discussed. Described analytical results are used for explanation of observed extreme runup of tsunami, freak (sneaker) waves and ship waves on different coasts along different bottom profiles.

Tohoku Tsunami Debris, Japan

NASA Image and Video Library

2011-06-14

The Mar. 11, 2011, Tohoku, Japan earthquake and tsunami devastated a large extent of the northeastern Japan coast, and virtually erased many villages and cities from the map. NASA Terra spacecraft acquired this image of Sendai on Mar. 14, 2011.

The meteorite impact-induced tsunami hazard.

PubMed

Wünnemann, K; Weiss, R

2015-10-28

When a cosmic object strikes the Earth, it most probably falls into an ocean. Depending on the impact energy and the depth of the ocean, a large amount of water is displaced, forming a temporary crater in the water column. Large tsunami-like waves originate from the collapse of the cavity in the water and the ejecta splash. Because of the far-reaching destructive consequences of such waves, an oceanic impact has been suggested to be more severe than a similar-sized impact on land; in other words, oceanic impacts may punch over their weight. This review paper summarizes the process of impact-induced wave generation and subsequent propagation, whether the wave characteristic differs from tsunamis generated by other classical mechanisms, and what methods have been applied to quantify the consequences of an oceanic impact. Finally, the impact-induced tsunami hazard will be evaluated by means of the Eltanin impact event. © 2015 The Author(s).

Dynamic models of an earthquake and tsunami offshore Ventura, California

USGS Publications Warehouse

Kenny J. Ryan,; Geist, Eric L.; Barall, Michael; David D. Oglesby,

2015-01-01

The Ventura basin in Southern California includes coastal dip-slip faults that can likely produce earthquakes of magnitude 7 or greater and significant local tsunamis. We construct a 3-D dynamic rupture model of an earthquake on the Pitas Point and Lower Red Mountain faults to model low-frequency ground motion and the resulting tsunami, with a goal of elucidating the seismic and tsunami hazard in this area. Our model results in an average stress drop of 6 MPa, an average fault slip of 7.4 m, and a moment magnitude of 7.7, consistent with regional paleoseismic data. Our corresponding tsunami model uses final seafloor displacement from the rupture model as initial conditions to compute local propagation and inundation, resulting in large peak tsunami amplitudes northward and eastward due to site and path effects. Modeled inundation in the Ventura area is significantly greater than that indicated by state of California's current reference inundation line.

Field survey of the March 28, 2005 Nias-Simeulue earthquake and Tsunami

USGS Publications Warehouse

Borrero, J.C.; McAdoo, B.; Jaffe, B.; Dengler, L.; Gelfenbaum, G.; Higman, B.; Hidayat, R.; Moore, A.; Kongko, W.; ,; Peters, R.; Prasetya, G.; Titov, V.; Yulianto, E.

2011-01-01

On the evening of March 28, 2005 at 11:09 p.m. local time (16:09 UTC), a large earthquake occurred offshore of West Sumatra, Indonesia. With a moment magnitude (Mw) of 8.6, the event caused substantial shaking damage and land level changes between Simeulue Island in the north and the Batu Islands in the south. The earthquake also generated a tsunami, which was observed throughout the source region as well as on distant tide gauges. While the tsunami was not as extreme as the tsunami of December 26th, 2004, it did cause significant flooding and damage at some locations. The spatial and temporal proximity of the two events led to a unique set of observational data from the earthquake and tsunami as well as insights relevant to tsunami hazard planning and education efforts. ?? 2010 Springer Basel AG.

Real-time Tsunami Inundation Prediction Using High Performance Computers

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Oishi, Y.; Imamura, F.; Sugawara, D.

2014-12-01

Recently off-shore tsunami observation stations based on cabled ocean bottom pressure gauges are actively being deployed especially in Japan. These cabled systems are designed to provide real-time tsunami data before tsunamis reach coastlines for disaster mitigation purposes. To receive real benefits of these observations, real-time analysis techniques to make an effective use of these data are necessary. A representative study was made by Tsushima et al. (2009) that proposed a method to provide instant tsunami source prediction based on achieving tsunami waveform data. As time passes, the prediction is improved by using updated waveform data. After a tsunami source is predicted, tsunami waveforms are synthesized from pre-computed tsunami Green functions of linear long wave equations. Tsushima et al. (2014) updated the method by combining the tsunami waveform inversion with an instant inversion of coseismic crustal deformation and improved the prediction accuracy and speed in the early stages. For disaster mitigation purposes, real-time predictions of tsunami inundation are also important. In this study, we discuss the possibility of real-time tsunami inundation predictions, which require faster-than-real-time tsunami inundation simulation in addition to instant tsunami source analysis. Although the computational amount is large to solve non-linear shallow water equations for inundation predictions, it has become executable through the recent developments of high performance computing technologies. We conducted parallel computations of tsunami inundation and achieved 6.0 TFLOPS by using 19,000 CPU cores. We employed a leap-frog finite difference method with nested staggered grids of which resolution range from 405 m to 5 m. The resolution ratio of each nested domain was 1/3. Total number of grid points were 13 million, and the time step was 0.1 seconds. Tsunami sources of 2011 Tohoku-oki earthquake were tested. The inundation prediction up to 2 hours after the earthquake occurs took about 2 minutes, which would be sufficient for a practical tsunami inundation predictions. In the presentation, the computational performance of our faster-than-real-time tsunami inundation model will be shown, and preferable tsunami wave source analysis for an accurate inundation prediction will also be discussed.

Warning and prevention based on estimates with large uncertainties: the case of low-frequency and large-impact events like tsunamis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tinti, Stefano; Armigliato, Alberto; Pagnoni, Gianluca; Zaniboni, Filippo

2013-04-01

Geoscientists deal often with hazardous processes like earthquakes, volcanic eruptions, tsunamis, hurricanes, etc., and their research is aimed not only to a better understanding of the physical processes, but also to provide assessment of the space and temporal evolution of a given individual event (i.e. to provide short-term prediction) and of the expected evolution of a group of events (i.e. to provide statistical estimates referred to a given return period, and a given geographical area). One of the main issues of any scientific method is how to cope with measurement errors, a topic which in case of forecast of ongoing or of future events translates into how to deal with forecast uncertainties. In general, the more data are available and processed to make a prediction, the more accurate the prediction is expected to be if the scientific approach is sound, and the smaller the associated uncertainties are. However, there are several important cases where assessment is to be made with insufficient data or insufficient time for processing, which leads to large uncertainties. Two examples can be given taken from tsunami science, since tsunamis are rare events that may have destructive power and very large impact. One example is the case of warning for a tsunami generated by a near-coast earthquake, which is an issue at the focus of the European funded project NearToWarn. Warning has to be launched before tsunami hits the coast, that is in a few minutes after its generation. This may imply that data collected in such a short time are not yet enough for an accurate evaluation, also because the implemented monitoring system (if any) could be inadequate (f.i. one reason of inadequacy could be that implementing a dense instrumental network could be judged too expensive for rare events) The second case is the long term prevention from tsunami strikes. Tsunami infrequency may imply that the historical record for a given piece of coast is too short to capture a statistical sufficient number of large tsunamis, which entails that tsunami hazard has to be estimated by means of speculated worst-case scenarios, and their consequences are evaluated accordingly and usually result associated with large uncertainty bands. In case of large uncertainties, the main issues for geoscientists are how to communicate the information (prediction and uncertainties) to stakeholders and citizens and how to build and implement together responsive procedures that should be adequate. Usually there is a tradeoff between the cost of the countermeasure (warning and prevention) and its efficacy (i.e. its capability of minimizing the damage). The level of the acceptable tradeoff is an issue pertaining to decision makers and to local threatened communities. This paper, that represents a contribution from the European project TRIDEC on management of emergency crises, discusses the role of geoscientists in providing predictions and the related uncertainties. It is stressed that through academic education geoscientists are formed more to better their understanding of processes and the quantification of uncertainties, but are often unprepared to communicate their results in a way appropriate for society. Filling this gap is crucial for improving the way geoscience and society handle natural hazards and devise proper defense means.

Geographical Information Analysis of Tsunami Flooded Area by the Great East Japan Earthquake Using Mobile Mapping System

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Koarai, M.; Okatani, T.; Nakano, T.; Nakamura, T.; Hasegawa, M.

2012-07-01

The great earthquake occurred in Tohoku District, Japan on 11th March, 2011. This earthquake is named "the 2011 off the Pacific coast of Tohoku Earthquake", and the damage by this earthquake is named "the Great East Japan Earthquake". About twenty thousand people were killed or lost by the tsunami of this earthquake, and large area was flooded and a large number of buildings were destroyed by the tsunami. The Geospatial Information Authority of Japan (GSI) has provided the data of tsunami flooded area interpreted from aerial photos taken just after the great earthquake. This is fundamental data of tsunami damage and very useful for consideration of reconstruction planning of tsunami damaged area. The authors analyzed the relationship among land use, landform classification, DEMs data flooded depth of the tsunami flooded area by the Great East Japan Earthquake in the Sendai Plain using GIS. Land use data is 100 meter grid data of National Land Information Data by the Ministry of Land, Infrastructure, Transportation and Tourism (MLIT). Landform classification data is vector data of Land Condition Map produced by GSI. DEMs data are 5 meters grid data measured with LiDAR by GSI after earthquake. Especially, the authors noticed the relationship between tsunami hazard damage and flooded depth. The authors divided tsunami damage into three categories by interpreting aerial photos; first is the completely destroyed area where almost wooden buildings were lost, second is the heavily damaged area where a large number of houses were destroyed by the tsunami, and third is the flooded only area where houses were less destroyed. The flooded depth was measured by photogrammetric method using digital image taken by Mobile Mapping System (MMS). The result of these geographic analyses show the distribution of tsunami damage level is as follows: 1) The completely destroyed area was located within 1km area from the coastline, flooded depth of this area is over 4m, and no relationship between damaged area and landform classification. 2) The heavily damaged area was observed up to 3 or 4km from the coastline. Flooded depth of this area is over 1.5m, and there is a good relationship between damaged area and height of DEMs. 3) The flood only area was observed up to 4 or 5km from the coastline. Flooded depth of this area was less than 1.5m, and there is a good relationship between damaged area and landform. For instance, a certain area in valley plain or flooded plain was not affected by the tsunami, even though an area with almost the same height in coastal plain or delta was flooded. These results mean that it is important for tsunami disaster management to consider not only DEMs but also landform classification.

Analysis of large boulders along the coast of south-eastern Sicily to discriminate between storm and tsunami deposits.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pirrotta, Claudia; Serafina Barbano, Maria; Gerardi, Flavia

2010-05-01

We present a study to discriminate the kind of anomalous waves, storms or tsunamis, that were responsible for the large boulder accumulation in the Vendicari Reserve along the south-eastern Sicilian coast. These depositional and erosional indicators of the large wave impact have been already observed in some rocky coasts of the Mediterranean basin and associated to strong waves of tsunamigenic or meteorological origin. Distinguishing boulders deposited by tsunamis from that deposited by storms and determining the age of their deposition can help to evaluate the magnitude and frequency of tsunamis and the hazard along the coast also regarding extraordinarily violent storms. The Sicilian Ionian coast has been affected in historical time by large destructive earthquake-related tsunamis (e.g. the 1169, 1693 and 1908) and it is exposed to an intense wave motion coming from a NNE- SSE span direction . In the rocky coastal area of Vendicari Reserve, three different GPS surveys (from September 2006 until April 2009) have been performed with the aim to observe the distance of each boulders with respect to the shoreline and if storms removed boulders or deposited new ones. A morphological analysis aiming to identify boulder shapes, measuring their volumes, elongation axis azimuth, pre-transport setting and the probable transport mechanism on the platform, was also carried out. The calcarenitic boulders (specific weight about 2,3 g/cm3), reaching about 20 tons and a distance up to 60m from the shoreline, are generally carved out from the supratidal or mid-sublittoral zone, showing widespread biogenic encrustations sometimes so fresh that suggest a recent deposition. The GPS surveys allowed us to observed that, after a strong storm during January 2009, several boulders were removed while new have been deposited on the platform by the storm waves. Hydrodynamic equations jointly to statistical analysis of sea storms have been used to determine the extreme event, geological or meteorological, responsible for this singular accumulation. We computed the minimum wave height, of storm and tsunami, required to start the movement of each boulder from its initial position. Moreover, we calculated the maximum penetration of the waves for the two major storm waves estimated at Vendicari and for the 1693 and 1908 tsunami waves. Finally we compared the computed values with the boulder distribution. The results show that the strongest storms were probably responsible for the current distribution of many boulders but about the 30% of them need of stronger waves, likely tsunami waves, than the maximum assumed storms to be moved and transported in their final place. Radiocarbon dating, performed on three probably tsunami boulders, having weight of about 15 t and sited at a distance >40 m from the shoreline, suggests that two of them were probably deposited by the 1693 tsunami, and one by a tsunami occurred after 650-930 AD that could be an unknown event or one of the historical tsunamis occurred in the Ionian coast of Sicily. Absolute age dating, such as optical stimulated luminescence, should be necessary to gather a correct imprint of the paleotsunami event.

Genomic and metagenomic analysis of microbes in a soil environment affected by the 2011 Great East Japan Earthquake tsunami.

PubMed

Hiraoka, Satoshi; Machiyama, Asako; Ijichi, Minoru; Inoue, Kentaro; Oshima, Kenshiro; Hattori, Masahira; Yoshizawa, Susumu; Kogure, Kazuhiro; Iwasaki, Wataru

2016-01-14

The Great East Japan Earthquake of 2011 triggered large tsunami waves, which flooded broad areas of land along the Pacific coast of eastern Japan and changed the soil environment drastically. However, the microbial characteristics of tsunami-affected soil at the genomic level remain largely unknown. In this study, we isolated microbes from a soil sample using general low-nutrient and seawater-based media to investigate microbial characteristics in tsunami-affected soil. As expected, a greater proportion of strains isolated from the tsunami-affected soil than the unaffected soil grew in the seawater-based medium. Cultivable strains in both the general low-nutrient and seawater-based media were distributed in the genus Arthrobacter. Most importantly, whole-genome sequencing of four of the isolated Arthrobacter strains revealed independent losses of siderophore-synthesis genes from their genomes. Siderophores are low-molecular-weight, iron-chelating compounds that are secreted for iron uptake; thus, the loss of siderophore-synthesis genes indicates that these strains have adapted to environments with high-iron concentrations. Indeed, chemical analysis confirmed the investigated soil samples to be rich in iron, and culture experiments confirmed weak cultivability of some of these strains in iron-limited media. Furthermore, metagenomic analyses demonstrated over-representation of denitrification-related genes in the tsunami-affected soil sample, as well as the presence of pathogenic and marine-living genera and genes related to salt-tolerance. Collectively, the present results would provide an example of microbial characteristics of soil disturbed by the tsunami, which may give an insight into microbial adaptation to drastic environmental changes. Further analyses on microbial ecology after a tsunami are envisioned to develop a deeper understanding of the recovery processes of terrestrial microbial ecosystems.

The 2011 Tohoku Tsunami on the Coast of Mexico: A Case Study

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zaytsev, Oleg; Rabinovich, Alexander B.; Thomson, Richard E.

2017-08-01

The Tohoku (East Japan) earthquake of 11 March 2011 ( M w 9.0) generated a great trans-oceanic tsunami that spread throughout the Pacific Ocean, where it was measured by numerous coastal tide gauges and open-ocean DART (Deep-ocean Assessment and Reporting of Tsunamis) stations. Statistical and spectral analyses of the tsunami waves recorded along the Pacific coast of Mexico have enabled us to estimate the principal parameters of the waves along the coast and to compare statistical features of the tsunami with other tsunamis recorded on this coast. We identify coastal "hot spots"—Manzanillo, Zihuatanejo, Acapulco, and Ensenada—corresponding to sites having highest tsunami hazard potential, where wave heights during the 2011 event exceeded 1.5-2 m and tsunami-induced currents were strong enough to close port operations. Based on a joint spectral analysis of the tsunamis and background noise, we reconstructed the spectra of tsunami waves in the deep ocean and found that, with the exception of the high-frequency spectral band (>5 cph), the spectra are in close agreement with the "true" tsunami spectra determined from DART bottom pressure records. The departure of the high-frequency spectra in the coastal region from the deep-sea spectra is shown to be related to background infragravity waves generated in the coastal zone. The total energy and frequency content of the Tohoku tsunami is compared with the corresponding results for the 2010 Chilean tsunami. Our findings show that the integral open-ocean tsunami energy, I 0, was 2.30 cm2, or approximately 1.7 times larger than for the 2010 event. Comparison of this parameter with the mean coastal tsunami variance (451 cm2) indicates that tsunami waves propagating onshore from the open ocean amplified by 14 times; the same was observed for the 2010 tsunami. The "tsunami colour" (frequency content) for the 2011 Tohoku tsunami was "red", with about 65% of the total energy associated with low-frequency waves at frequencies <1.7 cph (periods >35 min). The "red colour" (i.e., the prevalence of low-frequency waves) in the 2011 Tohoku, as well as in the 2010 Chile tsunamis, is explained by the large extension of the source areas. In contrast, the 2014 and 2015 Chilean earthquakes had much smaller source areas and, consequently, induced "bluish" (high-frequency) tsunamis.

Tsunami simulation using submarine displacement calculated from simulation of ground motion due to seismic source model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Akiyama, S.; Kawaji, K.; Fujihara, S.

2013-12-01

Since fault fracturing due to an earthquake can simultaneously cause ground motion and tsunami, it is appropriate to evaluate the ground motion and the tsunami by single fault model. However, several source models are used independently in the ground motion simulation or the tsunami simulation, because of difficulty in evaluating both phenomena simultaneously. Many source models for the 2011 off the Pacific coast of Tohoku Earthquake are proposed from the inversion analyses of seismic observations or from those of tsunami observations. Most of these models show the similar features, which large amount of slip is located at the shallower part of fault area near the Japan Trench. This indicates that the ground motion and the tsunami can be evaluated by the single source model. Therefore, we examine the possibility of the tsunami prediction, using the fault model estimated from seismic observation records. In this study, we try to carry out the tsunami simulation using the displacement field of oceanic crustal movements, which is calculated from the ground motion simulation of the 2011 off the Pacific coast of Tohoku Earthquake. We use two fault models by Yoshida et al. (2011), which are based on both the teleseismic body wave and on the strong ground motion records. Although there is the common feature in those fault models, the amount of slip near the Japan trench is lager in the fault model from the strong ground motion records than in that from the teleseismic body wave. First, the large-scale ground motion simulations applying those fault models used by the voxel type finite element method are performed for the whole eastern Japan. The synthetic waveforms computed from the simulations are generally consistent with the observation records of K-NET (Kinoshita (1998)) and KiK-net stations (Aoi et al. (2000)), deployed by the National Research Institute for Earth Science and Disaster Prevention (NIED). Next, the tsunami simulations are performed by the finite difference calculation based on the shallow water theory. The initial wave height for tsunami generation is estimated from the vertical displacement of ocean bottom due to the crustal movements, which is obtained from the ground motion simulation mentioned above. The results of tsunami simulations are compared with the observations of the GPS wave gauges to evaluate the validity for the tsunami prediction using the fault model based on the seismic observation records.

A comparison between two inundation models for the 25 Ooctober 2010 Mentawai Islands Tsunami

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Huang, Z.; Borrero, J. C.; Qiu, Q.; Hill, E. M.; Li, L.; Sieh, K. E.

2011-12-01

On 25 October 2010, an Mw~7.8 earthquake occurred on the Sumatra megathrust seaward of the Mentawai Islands, Indonesia, generating a tsunami which killed approximately 500 people. Following the event, the Earth Observatory of Singapore (EOS) initiated a post-tsunami field survey, collecting tsunami run-up data from more than 30 sites on Pagai Selatan, Pagai Utara and Sipora. The strongest tsunami effects were observed on several small islands offshore of Pagai Selatan, where runup exceeded 16 m. This presentation will focus on a detailed comparison between two tsunami propagation and inundation models: COMCOT (Cornell Multi-grid Coupled Tsunami model) and MOST (Method of Splitting Tsunami). Simulations are initialized using fault models based on data from a 1-hz GPS system that measured co-seismic deformation throughout the region. Preliminary simulations suggest that 2-m vertical seafloor deformation over a reasonably large area is required to recreate most of the observed tsunami effects. Since the GPS data suggest that subsidence of the islands is small, this implies that the tsunami source region is somewhat narrower and located further offshore than described in recently published earthquake source models based on teleseismic inversions alone. We will also discuss issues such as bathymetric and topographic data preparation and the uncertainty in the modeling results due to the lack of high resolution bathymetry and topography in the study area.

Modeling Tsunami Wave Generation Using a Two-layer Granular Landslide Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ma, G.; Kirby, J. T., Jr.; Shi, F.; Grilli, S. T.; Hsu, T. J.

2016-12-01

Tsunamis can be generated by subaerial or submarine landslides in reservoirs, lakes, fjords, bays and oceans. Compared to seismogenic tsunamis, landslide or submarine mass failure (SMF) tsunamis are normally characterized by relatively shorter wave lengths and stronger wave dispersion, and potentially may generate large wave amplitudes locally and high run-up along adjacent coastlines. Due to a complex interplay between the landslide and tsunami waves, accurate simulation of landslide motion as well as tsunami generation is a challenging task. We develop and test a new two-layer model for granular landslide motion and tsunami wave generation. The landslide is described as a saturated granular flow, accounting for intergranular stresses governed by Coulomb friction. Tsunami wave generation is simulated by the three-dimensional non-hydrostatic wave model NHWAVE, which is capable of capturing wave dispersion efficiently using a small number of discretized vertical levels. Depth-averaged governing equations for the granular landslide are derived in a slope-oriented coordinate system, taking into account the dynamic interaction between the lower-layer granular landslide and upper-layer water motion. The model is tested against laboratory experiments on impulsive wave generation by subaerial granular landslides. Model results illustrate a complex interplay between the granular landslide and tsunami waves, and they reasonably predict not only the tsunami wave generation but also the granular landslide motion from initiation to deposition.

Inversion of tsunami height using ionospheric observations. The case of the 2012 Haida Gwaii tsunami

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rakoto, V.; Lognonne, P. H.; Rolland, L.

2014-12-01

Large and moderate tsunamis generate atmospheric internal gravity waves that are detectable using ionospheric monitoring. Indeed tsunamis of height 2cm and more in open ocean were detected with GPS (Rolland et al. 2010). We present a new method to retrieve the tsunami height from GPS-derived Total Electron Content observations. We present the case of the Mw 7.8 Haida Gwaii earthquake that occured the 28 october 2012 offshore the Queen Charlotte island near the canadian west coast. This event created a moderate tsunami of 4cm offshore the Hawaii archipelago. Equipped with more than 50 receivers it was possible to image the tsunami-induced ionospheric perturbation. First, our forward model leading to the TEC perturbation follows three steps : (1) 3D modeling of the neutral atmosphere perturbation by summation of tsunami-induced gravity waves normal modes. (2) Coupling of the neutral atmosphere perturbation with the ionosphere to retrieve the electron density perturbation. (3) Integration of the electron density perturbation along each satellite-station ray path. Then we compare this results to the data acquired by the Hawaiian GPS network. Finally, we examine the possibility to invert the TEC data in order to retrieve the tsunami height and waveform. For this we investigate the link between the height of tsunamis and the perturbed TEC in the ionosphere.

Impact of huge tsunami in March 2011 on seaweed bed distributions in Shizugawa Bay, Sanriku Coast, revealed by remote sensing

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sakamoto, Shingo X.; Sasa, Shuji; Sawayama, Shuhei; Tsujimoto, Ryo; Terauchi, Genki; Yagi, Hiroshi; Komatsu, Teruhisa

2012-10-01

Seaweed beds are very important for abalones and sea urchins as a habitat. In Sanriku Coast, these animals are target species of coastal fisheries. The huge tsunami hit Sanriku Coast facing Pacific Ocean on 11 March 2011. It is needed for fishermen to know present situation of seaweed beds and understand damages of the huge tsunami on natural environments to recover coastal fisheries. We selected Shizugawa Bay as a study site because abalone catch of Shizugawa Bay occupied the first position in Sanriku Coast. To evaluate impact of tsunami on seaweed beds, we compared high spatial resolution satellite image of Shizugawa Bay before the tsunami with that after the tsunami by remote sensing with ground surveys to know impact of the tsunami on seaweed beds. We used two multi-band imageries of commercial high-resolution satellite, Geoeye-1, which were taken on 4 November 2009 before the tsunami and on 22 February 2012 after the tsunami. Although divers observed the tsunami damaged a very small part of Eisenia bicyclis distributions on rock substrates at the bay head, it was not observed clearly by satellite image analysis. On the other hand, we found increase in seaweed beds after the tsunami from the image analysis. The tsunami broke concrete breakwaters, entrained a large amount of rocks and pebble from land to the sea, and disseminated them in the bay. Thus, hard substrates suitable for attachment of seaweeds were increased. Ground surveys revealed that seaweeds consisting of E. bicyclis, Sargassum and Laminaria species grew on these hard substrates on the sandy bottom.

Simulated tsunami inundation for a range of Cascadia megathrust earthquake scenarios at Bandon, Oregon, USA

USGS Publications Warehouse

Witter, Robert C.; Zhang, Yinglong J.; Wang, Kelin; Priest, George R.; Goldfinger, Chris; Stimely, Laura; English, John T.; Ferro, Paul A.

2013-01-01

Characterizations of tsunami hazards along the Cascadia subduction zone hinge on uncertainties in megathrust rupture models used for simulating tsunami inundation. To explore these uncertainties, we constructed 15 megathrust earthquake scenarios using rupture models that supply the initial conditions for tsunami simulations at Bandon, Oregon. Tsunami inundation varies with the amount and distribution of fault slip assigned to rupture models, including models where slip is partitioned to a splay fault in the accretionary wedge and models that vary the updip limit of slip on a buried fault. Constraints on fault slip come from onshore and offshore paleoseismological evidence. We rank each rupture model using a logic tree that evaluates a model’s consistency with geological and geophysical data. The scenarios provide inputs to a hydrodynamic model, SELFE, used to simulate tsunami generation, propagation, and inundation on unstructured grids with <5–15 m resolution in coastal areas. Tsunami simulations delineate the likelihood that Cascadia tsunamis will exceed mapped inundation lines. Maximum wave elevations at the shoreline varied from ∼4 m to 25 m for earthquakes with 9–44 m slip and Mw 8.7–9.2. Simulated tsunami inundation agrees with sparse deposits left by the A.D. 1700 and older tsunamis. Tsunami simulations for large (22–30 m slip) and medium (14–19 m slip) splay fault scenarios encompass 80%–95% of all inundation scenarios and provide reasonable guidelines for land-use planning and coastal development. The maximum tsunami inundation simulated for the greatest splay fault scenario (36–44 m slip) can help to guide development of local tsunami evacuation zones.

Investigating the March 28th 1875 and the September 20th 1920 earthquakes/tsunamis of the Southern Vanuatu arc, offshore Loyalty Islands, New Caledonia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ioualalen, Mansour; Pelletier, Bernard; Solis Gordillo, Gabriela

2017-07-01

New Caledonia's Loyalty Islands are located in the southwest region of the Pacific ocean in the highly seismogenic southern Vanuatu subduction zone and therefore may be subject to devastating local tsunamis. Over the past 150 years, two large tsunamis were triggered by major earthquakes on March 28th 1875 and September 20th 1920. In this study, we use historical observations of these tsunamis (mostly in the form of testimonials), earthquake scenarios, and tsunami modeling to derive the magnitudes of these earthquakes, as well as tsunami runup and inundation maps. Assuming that these earthquakes were located on the interplate megathrust zone, the 1875 earthquake's magnitude was Mw8.1-8.2 and the 1920 event's magnitude was Mw7.5-7.8. The tsunami damage inflicted on the Lifou and Maré islands was approximately proportional to these magnitudes, with Maré being less impacted due to favorable wave directivity. Damage at Ouvéa island may have varied irregularly with the magnitude due to the effects of resonance. This study demonstrates that the quantitative characteristics of historical tsunamigenic earthquakes may be derived from qualitative estimates of tsunami runup.

Invesion of tsunami height using GPS TEC data. The case of the 2012 Haida Gwaii tsunami and Earthquake.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rakoto, V.; Lognonne, P. H.; Rolland, L. M.

2015-12-01

Large earthquakes (i.eM>6) and tsunamis associated are responsible for ionospheric perturbations. These perturbations can be observed in the total electron content (TEC) measured from multi- frequency Global Navigation Satellite systems (GNSS) data (e.g GPS). We will focus on the studies of the Haïda Gwaii earthquake and tsunami case. It happened the 28 october 2012 along the Queen Charlotte fault of the Canada Western Coast. First, we compare GPS data of perturbation TEC to our model. We model the TEC perturbation in several steps. (1) First, we compute tsunami normal modes modes in atmosphere in using PREM model with 4.7km of oceanic layer. (2) We sum all the tsunami modes to obtain the neutral displacement. (3) We couple the ionosphere with the neutral atmosphere. (4) We integrate the perturbed electron density along each satellite station line of sight. At last, we present first results of TEC inversion in order to retrieve the waveform of the tsunami. This inversion has been done on synthetics data assuming Queen Charlotte Earthquake and Tsunami can be considered as a point source in far field.

Volcanic tsunamis and prehistoric cultural transitions in Cook Inlet, Alaska

USGS Publications Warehouse

Beget, J.; Gardner, C.; Davis, K.

2008-01-01

The 1883 eruption of Augustine Volcano produced a tsunami when a debris avalanche traveled into the waters of Cook Inlet. Older debris avalanches and coeval paleotsunami deposits from sites around Cook Inlet record several older volcanic tsunamis. A debris avalanche into the sea on the west side of Augustine Island ca. 450??years ago produced a wave that affected areas 17??m above high tide on Augustine Island. A large volcanic tsunami was generated by a debris avalanche on the east side of Augustine Island ca. 1600??yr BP, and affected areas more than 7??m above high tide at distances of 80??km from the volcano on the Kenai Peninsula. A tsunami deposit dated to ca. 3600??yr BP is tentatively correlated with a southward directed collapse of the summit of Redoubt Volcano, although little is known about the magnitude of the tsunami. The 1600??yr BP tsunami from Augustine Volcano occurred about the same time as the collapse of the well-developed Kachemak culture in the southern Cook Inlet area, suggesting a link between volcanic tsunamis and prehistoric cultural changes in this region of Alaska. ?? 2008 Elsevier B.V.

Rapid Tsunami Inundation Forecast from Near-field or Far-field Earthquakes using Pre-computed Tsunami Database: Pelabuhan Ratu, Indonesia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gusman, A. R.; Setiyono, U.; Satake, K.; Fujii, Y.

2017-12-01

We built pre-computed tsunami inundation database in Pelabuhan Ratu, one of tsunami-prone areas on the southern coast of Java, Indonesia. The tsunami database can be employed for a rapid estimation of tsunami inundation during an event. The pre-computed tsunami waveforms and inundations are from a total of 340 scenarios ranging from 7.5 to 9.2 in moment magnitude scale (Mw), including simple fault models of 208 thrust faults and 44 tsunami earthquakes on the plate interface, as well as 44 normal faults and 44 reverse faults in the outer-rise region. Using our tsunami inundation forecasting algorithm (NearTIF), we could rapidly estimate the tsunami inundation in Pelabuhan Ratu for three different hypothetical earthquakes. The first hypothetical earthquake is a megathrust earthquake type (Mw 9.0) offshore Sumatra which is about 600 km from Pelabuhan Ratu to represent a worst-case event in the far-field. The second hypothetical earthquake (Mw 8.5) is based on a slip deficit rate estimation from geodetic measurements and represents a most likely large event near Pelabuhan Ratu. The third hypothetical earthquake is a tsunami earthquake type (Mw 8.1) which often occur south off Java. We compared the tsunami inundation maps produced by the NearTIF algorithm with results of direct forward inundation modeling for the hypothetical earthquakes. The tsunami inundation maps produced from both methods are similar for the three cases. However, the tsunami inundation map from the inundation database can be obtained in much shorter time (1 min) than the one from a forward inundation modeling (40 min). These indicate that the NearTIF algorithm based on pre-computed inundation database is reliable and useful for tsunami warning purposes. This study also demonstrates that the NearTIF algorithm can work well even though the earthquake source is located outside the area of fault model database because it uses a time shifting procedure for the best-fit scenario searching.

Challenges in Defining Tsunami Wave Height

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Stroker, K. J.; Dunbar, P. K.; Mungov, G.; Sweeney, A.; Arcos, N. P.

2017-12-01

The NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information (NCEI) and co-located World Data Service for Geophysics maintain the global tsunami archive consisting of the historical tsunami database, imagery, and raw and processed water level data. The historical tsunami database incorporates, where available, maximum wave heights for each coastal tide gauge and deep-ocean buoy that recorded a tsunami signal. These data are important because they are used for tsunami hazard assessment, model calibration, validation, and forecast and warning. There have been ongoing discussions in the tsunami community about the correct way to measure and report these wave heights. It is important to understand how these measurements might vary depending on how the data were processed and the definition of maximum wave height. On September 16, 2015, an 8.3 Mw earthquake located 48 km west of Illapel, Chile generated a tsunami that was observed all over the Pacific region. We processed the time-series water level data for 57 tide gauges that recorded this tsunami and compared the maximum wave heights determined from different definitions. We also compared the maximum wave heights from the NCEI-processed data with the heights reported by the NOAA Tsunami Warning Centers. We found that in the near field different methods of determining the maximum tsunami wave heights could result in large differences due to possible instrumental clipping. We also found that the maximum peak is usually larger than the maximum amplitude (½ peak-to-trough), but the differences for the majority of the stations were <20 cm. For this event, the maximum tsunami wave heights determined by either definition (maximum peak or amplitude) would have validated the forecasts issued by the NOAA Tsunami Warning Centers. Since there is currently only one field in the NCEI historical tsunami database to store the maximum tsunami wave height, NCEI will consider adding an additional field for the maximum peak measurement.

Challenges in Defining Tsunami Wave Heights

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dunbar, Paula; Mungov, George; Sweeney, Aaron; Stroker, Kelly; Arcos, Nicolas

2017-08-01

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) National Centers for Environmental Information (NCEI) and co-located World Data Service for Geophysics maintain the global tsunami archive consisting of the historical tsunami database, imagery, and raw and processed water level data. The historical tsunami database incorporates, where available, maximum wave heights for each coastal tide gauge and deep-ocean buoy that recorded a tsunami signal. These data are important because they are used for tsunami hazard assessment, model calibration, validation, and forecast and warning. There have been ongoing discussions in the tsunami community about the correct way to measure and report these wave heights. It is important to understand how these measurements might vary depending on how the data were processed and the definition of maximum wave height. On September 16, 2015, an 8.3 M w earthquake located 48 km west of Illapel, Chile generated a tsunami that was observed all over the Pacific region. We processed the time-series water level data for 57 coastal tide gauges that recorded this tsunami and compared the maximum wave heights determined from different definitions. We also compared the maximum wave heights from the NCEI-processed data with the heights reported by the NOAA Tsunami Warning Centers. We found that in the near field different methods of determining the maximum tsunami wave heights could result in large differences due to possible instrumental clipping. We also found that the maximum peak is usually larger than the maximum amplitude (½ peak-to-trough), but the differences for the majority of the stations were <20 cm. For this event, the maximum tsunami wave heights determined by either definition (maximum peak or amplitude) would have validated the forecasts issued by the NOAA Tsunami Warning Centers. Since there is currently only one field in the NCEI historical tsunami database to store the maximum tsunami wave height for each tide gauge and deep-ocean buoy, NCEI will consider adding an additional field for the maximum peak measurement.

Recent Advances in Tsunami-Seabed-Structure Interaction from Geotechnical and Hydrodynamic Perspectives

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sassa, S.

2017-12-01

This presentation shows some recent research advances on tsunami-seabed-structure interaction following the 2011 Tohoku Earthquake Tsunami, Japan. It presents a concise summary and discussion of utilizing a geotechnical centrifuge and a large-scale hydro flume for the modelling of tsunami-seabed-structure interaction. I highlight here the role of tsunami-induced seepage in piping/boiling, erosion and bearing capacity decrease and failure of the rubble/seabed foundation. A comparison and discussion are made on the stability assessment for the design of tsunami-resistant structures on the basis of the results from both geo-centrifuge and large-scale hydrodynamic experiments. The concurrent processes of the instability involving the scour of the mound/sandy seabed, bearing capacity failure and flow of the foundation and the failure of caisson breakwaters under tsunami overflow and seepage coupling are made clear in this presentation. Three series of experiments were conducted under fifty gravities. The first series of experiments targeted the instability of the mounds themselves, and the second series of experiments clarified how the mound scour would affect the overall stability of the caissons. The third series of experiments examined the effect of a countermeasure on the basis of the results from the two series of experiments. The experimental results first demonstrated that the coupled overflow-seepage actions promoted the development of the mound scour significantly, and caused bearing capacity failure of the mound, resulting in the total failure of the caisson breakwater, which otherwise remained stable without the coupling effect. The velocity vectors obtained from the high-resolution image analysis illustrated the series of such concurrent scour/bearing-capacity-failure/flow processes leading to the instability of the breakwater. The stability of the breakwaters was significantly improved with decreasing hydraulic gradient underneath the caissons due to an embankment effect. These findings elucidate the crucial role of overflow/seepage coupling in tsunami-seabed-structure interaction from both geotechnical and hydrodynamic perspectives, as an interdisciplinary tsunami science, warranting an enhanced disaster resilience.

New Methodology for Computing Subaerial Landslide-Tsunamis: Application to the 2015 Tyndall Glacier Landslide, Alaska

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

George, D. L.; Iverson, R. M.; Cannon, C. M.

2016-12-01

Landslide-generated tsunamis pose significant hazards to coastal communities and infrastructure, but developing models to assess these hazards presents challenges beyond those confronted when modeling seismically generated tsunamis. We present a new methodology in which our depth-averaged two-phase model D-Claw (Proc. Roy. Soc. A, 2014, doi: 10.1098/rspa.2013.0819 and doi:10.1098/rspa.2013.0820) is used to simulate all stages of landslide dynamics and subsequent tsunami generation and propagation. D-Claw was developed to simulate landslides and debris-flows, but if granular solids are absent, then the D-Claw equations reduce to the shallow-water equations commonly used to model tsunamis. Because the model describes the evolution of solid and fluid volume fractions, it treats both landslides and tsunamis as special cases of a more general class of phenomena, and the landslide and tsunami can be simulated as a single-layer continuum with spatially and temporally evolving solid-grain concentrations. This seamless approach accommodates wave generation via mass displacement and longitudinal momentum transfer, the dominant mechanisms producing impulse waves when large subaerial landslides impact relatively shallow bodies of water. To test our methodology, we used D-Claw to model a large subaerial landslide and resulting tsunami that occurred on October, 17, 2015, in Taan Fjord near the terminus of Tyndall Glacier, Alaska. The estimated landslide volume derived from radiated long-period seismicity (C. Stark (2015), Abstract EP51D-08, AGU Fall Meeting) was about 70-80 million cubic meters. Guided by satellite imagery and this volume estimate, we inferred an approximate landslide basal slip surface, and we used material property values identical to those used in our previous modeling of the 2014 Oso, Washington, landslide. With these inputs the modeled tsunami inundation patterns on shorelines compare well with observations derived from satellite imagery.

Geoethical issues involved in Tsunami Warning System concepts and operations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Charalampakis, Marinos; Papadopoulos, Gerassimos A.; Tinti, Stefano

2016-04-01

The main goal of a Tsunami Warning System (TWS) is to mitigate the effect of an incoming tsunami by alerting coastal population early enough to allow people to evacuate safely from inundation zones. Though this representation might seem oversimplified, nonetheless, achieving successfully this goal requires a positive synergy of geoscience, communication, emergency management, technology, education, social sciences, politics. Geoethical issues arise always when there is an interaction between geoscience and society, and TWS is a paradigmatic case where interaction is very strong and is made critical because a) the formulation of the tsunami alert has to be made in a time as short as possible and therefore on uncertain data, and b) any evaluation error (underestimation or overestimation) can lead to serious (and sometimes catastrophic) consequences involving wide areas and a large amount of population. From the geoethical point of view three issues are critical: how to (i) combine forecasts and uncertainties reasonably and usefully, (ii) cope and possibly solve the dilemma whether it is better over-alerting or under-alerting population and (iii) deal with responsibility and liability of geoscientists, TWS operators, emergency operators and coastal population. The discussion will be based on the experience of the Hellenic National Tsunami Warning Center (HL-NTWC, Greece), which operates on 24/7 basis as a special unit of the Institute of Geodynamics, National Observatory of Athens, and acts also as Candidate Tsunami Service Provider (CTSP) in the framework of the North-Eastern Atlantic, the Mediterranean and connected seas Tsunami Warning System (NEAMTWS) of the IOC/UNESCO. Since August 2012, when HL-NTWC was officially declared as operational, 14 tsunami warning messages have been disseminated to a large number of subscribers after strong submarine earthquakes occurring in Greece and elsewhere in the eastern Mediterranean. It is recognized that the alerting process and procedure are quite complex and deserve an open and wide debate, that at the moment seems to be absent from media, scientific community and society, very likely until the next tsunami disaster.

Development of a guideline for estimating tsunami forces On bridge superstructures.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2011-10-01

"The Pacific Northwest is vulnerable to seismic events in the Cascadia Subduction Zone (CSZ) that could generate a : large tsunami that could devastate coastal infrastructure such as bridges. In this context, this paper describes the : development of...

History of earthquakes and tsunamis along the eastern Aleutian-Alaska megathrust, with implications for tsunami hazards in the California Continental Borderland

USGS Publications Warehouse

Ryan, Holly F.; von Huene, Roland E.; Wells, Ray E.; Scholl, David W.; Kirby, Stephen; Draut, Amy E.; Dumoulin, Julie A.; Dusel-Bacon, C.

2012-01-01

During the past several years, devastating tsunamis were generated along subduction zones in Indonesia, Chile, and most recently Japan. Both the Chile and Japan tsunamis traveled across the Pacific Ocean and caused localized damage at several coastal areas in California. The question remains as to whether coastal California, in particular the California Continental Borderland, is vulnerable to more extensive damage from a far-field tsunami sourced along a Pacific subduction zone. Assuming that the coast of California is at risk from a far-field tsunami, its coastline is most exposed to a trans-Pacific tsunami generated along the eastern Aleutian-Alaska subduction zone. We present the background geologic constraints that could control a possible giant (Mw ~9) earthquake sourced along the eastern Aleutian-Alaska megathrust. Previous great earthquakes (Mw ~8) in 1788, 1938, and 1946 ruptured single segments of the eastern Aleutian-Alaska megathrust. However, in order to generate a giant earthquake, it is necessary to rupture through multiple segments of the megathrust. Potential barriers to a throughgoing rupture, such as high-relief fracture zones or ridges, are absent on the subducting Pacific Plate between the Fox and Semidi Islands. Possible asperities (areas on the megathrust that are locked and therefore subject to infrequent but large slip) are identified by patches of high moment release observed in the historical earthquake record, geodetic studies, and the location of forearc basin gravity lows. Global Positioning System (GPS) data indicate that some areas of the eastern Aleutian-Alaska megathrust, such as that beneath Sanak Island, are weakly coupled. We suggest that although these areas will have reduced slip during a giant earthquake, they are not really large enough to form a barrier to rupture. A key aspect in defining an earthquake source for tsunami generation is determining the possibility of significant slip on the updip end of the megathrust near the trench. Large slip on the updip part of the eastern Aleutian-Alaska megathrust is a viable possibility owing to the small frontal accretionary prism and the presence of arc basement relatively close to the trench along most of the megathrust.

Reducing the age range of tsunami deposits by 14C dating of rip-up clasts

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ishizawa, Takashi; Goto, Kazuhisa; Yokoyama, Yusuke; Miyairi, Yosuke; Sawada, Chikako; Takada, Keita

2018-02-01

Erosion by tsunami waves represents an important issue when determining the age of a tsunami deposit, because the age is usually estimated using dating of sediments above and below the deposit. Dating of material within the tsunami deposit, if suitable material is obtainable, can be used to further constrain its age. Eroded sediments are sometimes incorporated within the tsunami deposits as rip-up clasts, which might therefore be used as minimum age dating material. However, the single calibrated 14C age often shows a wide age range because of fluctuations in the calibration curve. Therefore, it remains uncertain whether rip-up clast measurements are useful to constrain the depositional age of tsunami deposits, or not. In this study, we carried out high-resolution 14C dating of tsunami deposits, including rip-up clasts of peat, in Rikuzentakata, northeastern Japan, where numerous rip-up clasts were observed within a tsunami deposit. Sediments above and below the tsunami deposit and a 5 cm large rip-up clast were dated sequentially. Comparison of these dating results with the calibration curve revealed that the clast was inverted. Its age was better constrained based on the stratigraphic order, and we infer that the clast corresponds to approximately 100 years of sedimentation. The oldest age of the clast was consistent with the age of the peat immediately below the tsunami deposit, suggesting that surface sediments probably formed the rip-up clast at the time of the tsunami. Thus, the dating of the rip-up clast was useful to further constrain the depositional age of the tsunami deposit, as we narrowed the tsunami deposit age range by approximately 100 years. Results show that ignoring tsunami-related erosion might lead to overestimation of the tsunami deposit age. For this reason, an appropriate dating site, which is less affected by minor tsunami-related erosion with regards to the paleo-topography, should be explored. We therefore propose a more effective sampling strategy for better age estimation of tsunami deposits.

Recurrence of great earthquakes and tsunamis, Aceh Province, Sumatra

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rubin, C. M.; Horton, B.; Sieh, K.; Pilarczyk, J.; Hawkes, A. D.; Daly, P.; Kelsey, H. M.; McKinnon, E.; Ismail, N.; Daryono, M. R.

2013-12-01

The timing and characterization of ancient earthquakes and tsunamis inferred from a variety of geologic studies in Aceh Province, Sumatra, are helping to understand predecessors of the 2004 event in the Indian Ocean region. We report results from three different depositional environments along the western and northern coast of Aceh Province, Sumatra, that illuminate the history of tsunamis through the past several millennia. Within a coastal cave along the western coast is an extraordinary sedimentary deposit that contains a 7,000-year long sequence of tsunami sands separated by bat guano. In two sea cliff exposures along the northern coast of Aceh is evidence for two closely timed predecessors of the giant 2004 tsunami that destroyed communities along the coast about 500 years ago. In addition, coastal wetlands along the western coast document land-level changes and tsunamis associated with the earthquake cycle in the early- to mid-Holocene. Together these records show a marked variability in recurrence of large tsunamis along the Acehnese coast. Time between inundations averages close to 500 years but range from a few centuries to a millennium.

Near-simultaneous great earthquakes at Tongan megathrust and outer rise in September 2009.

PubMed

Beavan, J; Wang, X; Holden, C; Wilson, K; Power, W; Prasetya, G; Bevis, M; Kautoke, R

2010-08-19

The Earth's largest earthquakes and tsunamis are usually caused by thrust-faulting earthquakes on the shallow part of the subduction interface between two tectonic plates, where stored elastic energy due to convergence between the plates is rapidly released. The tsunami that devastated the Samoan and northern Tongan islands on 29 September 2009 was preceded by a globally recorded magnitude-8 normal-faulting earthquake in the outer-rise region, where the Pacific plate bends before entering the subduction zone. Preliminary interpretation suggested that this earthquake was the source of the tsunami. Here we show that the outer-rise earthquake was accompanied by a nearly simultaneous rupture of the shallow subduction interface, equivalent to a magnitude-8 earthquake, that also contributed significantly to the tsunami. The subduction interface event was probably a slow earthquake with a rise time of several minutes that triggered the outer-rise event several minutes later. However, we cannot rule out the possibility that the normal fault ruptured first and dynamically triggered the subduction interface event. Our evidence comes from displacements of Global Positioning System stations and modelling of tsunami waves recorded by ocean-bottom pressure sensors, with support from seismic data and tsunami field observations. Evidence of the subduction earthquake in global seismic data is largely hidden because of the earthquake's slow rise time or because its ground motion is disguised by that of the normal-faulting event. Earthquake doublets where subduction interface events trigger large outer-rise earthquakes have been recorded previously, but this is the first well-documented example where the two events occur so closely in time and the triggering event might be a slow earthquake. As well as providing information on strain release mechanisms at subduction zones, earthquakes such as this provide a possible mechanism for the occasional large tsunamis generated at the Tonga subduction zone, where slip between the plates is predominantly aseismic.

Novel Algorithms Enabling Rapid, Real-Time Earthquake Monitoring and Tsunami Early Warning Worldwide

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lomax, A.; Michelini, A.

2012-12-01

We have introduced recently new methods to determine rapidly the tsunami potential and magnitude of large earthquakes (e.g., Lomax and Michelini, 2009ab, 2011, 2012). To validate these methods we have implemented them along with other new algorithms within the Early-est earthquake monitor at INGV-Rome (http://early-est.rm.ingv.it, http://early-est.alomax.net). Early-est is a lightweight software package for real-time earthquake monitoring (including phase picking, phase association and event detection, location, magnitude determination, first-motion mechanism determination, ...), and for tsunami early warning based on discriminants for earthquake tsunami potential. In a simulation using archived broadband seismograms for the devastating M9, 2011 Tohoku earthquake and tsunami, Early-est determines: the epicenter within 3 min after the event origin time, discriminants showing very high tsunami potential within 5-7 min, and magnitude Mwpd(RT) 9.0-9.2 and a correct shallow-thrusting mechanism within 8 min. Real-time monitoring with Early-est givess similar results for most large earthquakes using currently available, real-time seismogram data. Here we summarize some of the key algorithms within Early-est that enable rapid, real-time earthquake monitoring and tsunami early warning worldwide: >>> FilterPicker - a general purpose, broad-band, phase detector and picker (http://alomax.net/FilterPicker); >>> Robust, simultaneous association and location using a probabilistic, global-search; >>> Period-duration discriminants TdT0 and TdT50Ex for tsunami potential available within 5 min; >>> Mwpd(RT) magnitude for very large earthquakes available within 10 min; >>> Waveform P polarities determined on broad-band displacement traces, focal mechanisms obtained with the HASH program (Hardebeck and Shearer, 2002); >>> SeisGramWeb - a portable-device ready seismogram viewer using web-services in a browser (http://alomax.net/webtools/sgweb/info.html). References (see also: http://alomax.net/pub_list.html): Lomax, A. and A. Michelini (2012), Tsunami early warning within 5 minutes, Pure and Applied Geophysics, 169, nnn-nnn, doi: 10.1007/s00024-012-0512-6. Lomax, A. and A. Michelini (2011), Tsunami early warning using earthquake rupture duration and P-wave dominant period: the importance of length and depth of faulting, Geophys. J. Int., 185, 283-291, doi: 10.1111/j.1365-246X.2010.04916.x. Lomax, A. and A. Michelini (2009b), Tsunami early warning using earthquake rupture duration, Geophys. Res. Lett., 36, L09306, doi:10.1029/2009GL037223. Lomax, A. and A. Michelini (2009a), Mwpd: A Duration-Amplitude Procedure for Rapid Determination of Earthquake Magnitude and Tsunamigenic Potential from P Waveforms, Geophys. J. Int.,176, 200-214, doi:10.1111/j.1365-246X.2008.03974.x

Boulder emplacement and remobilisation by cyclone and submarine landslide tsunami waves near Suva City, Fiji

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lau, A. Y. Annie; Terry, James P.; Ziegler, Alan; Pratap, Arti; Harris, Daniel

2018-02-01

The characteristics of a reef-top boulder field created by a local submarine landslide tsunami are presented for the first time. Our examination of large reef-derived boulders deposited by the 1953 tsunami near Suva City, Fiji, revealed that shorter-than-normal-period tsunami waves generated by submarine landslides can create a boulder field resembling a storm boulder field due to relatively short boulder transport distances. The boulder-inferred 1953 tsunami flow velocity is estimated at over 9 m s- 1 at the reef edge. Subsequent events, for example Cyclone Kina (1993), appear to have remobilised some large boulders. While prior research has demonstrated headward retreat of Suva Canyon in response to the repeated occurrence of earthquakes over the past few millennia, our results highlight the lingering vulnerability of the Fijian coastlines to high-energy waves generated both in the presence (tsunami) and absence (storm) of submarine failures and/or earthquakes. To explain the age discrepancies of U-Th dated coral comprising the deposited boulders, we introduce a conceptual model showing the role of repeated episodes of tsunamigenic submarine landslides in removing reef front sections through collapse. Subsequent high-energy wave events transport boulders from exposed older sections of the reef front onto the reef where they are deposited as 'new' boulders, alongside freshly detached sections of the living reef. In similar situations where anachronistic deposits complicate the deposition signal, age-dating of the coral boulders should not be used as a proxy for determining the timing of the submarine landslides or the tsunamis that generated them.

Tsunamis of the northeast Indian Ocean with a particular focus on the Bay of Bengal region—A synthesis and review

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Alam, Edris; Dominey-Howes, Dale; Chagué-Goff, Catherine; Goff, James

2012-08-01

The 2004 Indian Ocean Tsunami (2004 IOT) challenged assumptions about the level of regional hazard. Significantly, there has been some debate about the hypothesis that the northern Bay of Bengal may be capable of generating large tsunamis similar to the 2004 IOT. To test this hypothesis, we documented historical and palaeotsunamis in the northeast Indian Ocean. Using multiple sources, we identified 135 purported tsunamis. After completing a process of validity assessment, we categorised 31 definite tsunamis, 27 probable tsunamis, 51 doubtful tsunamis and 20 events that only caused a seiche or disturbance in an inland river. Six of the purported events were identified as either cyclones or earthquakes without any associated tsunamis. Using the reported list of 135 events, we identified different tsunamigenic regions and explored the temporal distribution of past events, with the oldest event dated to around 38,000BC (although the dated material is most likely reworked and this was probably a Holocene event). The second oldest event dated to 3000-2000BC. Historical records indicate that only one definite tsunami, occurring in AD1762, was generated in the northern Bay of Bengal. We encountered a number of significant challenges in reviewing and analysing data contained within the documents and sources we consulted. Statistical analysis of tsunami data from AD1710 to AD2010 suggests that the occurrence of a tsunami affecting the coasts of Bangladesh and Myanmar is 0.99% in any given year, and 63% in a century. We recognise that this incomplete tsunami dataset limits the capacity to fully quantify the hazard. As such, we recommend further 'deep' archival research coupled with regional palaeotsunami studies to gain a more sophisticated understanding of the hazard.

Tsunami deposits associated with the 7.3 ka caldera-forming eruption of the Kikai Caldera, insights for tsunami generation during submarine caldera-forming eruptions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Geshi, Nobuo; Maeno, Fukashi; Nakagawa, Shojiro; Naruo, Hideto; Kobayashi, Tetsuo

2017-11-01

Timing and mechanism of volcanic tsunamis will be a key to understand the dynamics of large-scale submarine explosive volcanism. Tsunami deposits associated with the VEI 7 eruption of the Kikai Caldera at 7.3 ka are found in the Yakushima and Kuchinoerabujima Islands, 40 km south -southeast of the caldera rim. The tsunami deposits distribute along the rivers in their northern coast up to 4.5 km from the river exit and up to 50 m above the present sea level. The tsunami deposits in the Yakushima area consist of pumice-bearing gravels in the lower part of the section (Unit I) and pumiceous conglomerate in the upper part (Unit II). The presence of rounded pebbles of sedimentary rocks, which characterize the beach deposit, indicates a run-up current from the coastal area. The rip-up clasts of the underlying paleosol in Unit I show strong erosion during the invasion of tsunami. Compositional similarity between the pumices in the tsunami deposit and the juvenile materials erupted in the early phase of the Akahoya eruption indicates the formation of tsunami deposit during the early phase of the eruption, which produced the initial Plinian pumice fall and the lower half of the Koya pyroclastic flow. Presence of the dense volcanic components (obsidians and lava fragments) besides pumices in the tsunami deposit supports that they were carried by the Koya pyroclastic flow, and not the pumices floating on the sea surface. Sequential relationship between the Koya pyroclastic flow and the tsunami suggests that the emplacement of the pyroclastic flow into the sea surrounding the caldera is the most probable mechanism of the tsunami.

A probabilistic tsunami hazard assessment for Indonesia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Horspool, N.; Pranantyo, I.; Griffin, J.; Latief, H.; Natawidjaja, D. H.; Kongko, W.; Cipta, A.; Bustaman, B.; Anugrah, S. D.; Thio, H. K.

2014-11-01

Probabilistic hazard assessments are a fundamental tool for assessing the threats posed by hazards to communities and are important for underpinning evidence-based decision-making regarding risk mitigation activities. Indonesia has been the focus of intense tsunami risk mitigation efforts following the 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami, but this has been largely concentrated on the Sunda Arc with little attention to other tsunami prone areas of the country such as eastern Indonesia. We present the first nationally consistent probabilistic tsunami hazard assessment (PTHA) for Indonesia. This assessment produces time-independent forecasts of tsunami hazards at the coast using data from tsunami generated by local, regional and distant earthquake sources. The methodology is based on the established monte carlo approach to probabilistic seismic hazard assessment (PSHA) and has been adapted to tsunami. We account for sources of epistemic and aleatory uncertainty in the analysis through the use of logic trees and sampling probability density functions. For short return periods (100 years) the highest tsunami hazard is the west coast of Sumatra, south coast of Java and the north coast of Papua. For longer return periods (500-2500 years), the tsunami hazard is highest along the Sunda Arc, reflecting the larger maximum magnitudes. The annual probability of experiencing a tsunami with a height of > 0.5 m at the coast is greater than 10% for Sumatra, Java, the Sunda islands (Bali, Lombok, Flores, Sumba) and north Papua. The annual probability of experiencing a tsunami with a height of > 3.0 m, which would cause significant inundation and fatalities, is 1-10% in Sumatra, Java, Bali, Lombok and north Papua, and 0.1-1% for north Sulawesi, Seram and Flores. The results of this national-scale hazard assessment provide evidence for disaster managers to prioritise regions for risk mitigation activities and/or more detailed hazard or risk assessment.

Analysis of Tsunami Evacuation Issues Using Agent Based Modeling. A Case Study of the 2011 Tohoku Tsunami in Yuriage, Natori.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mas, E.; Takagi, H.; Adriano, B.; Hayashi, S.; Koshimura, S.

2014-12-01

The 2011 Great East Japan earthquake and tsunami reminded that nature can exceed structural countermeasures like seawalls, breakwaters or tsunami gates. In such situations it is a challenging task for people to find nearby haven. This event, as many others before, confirmed the importance of early evacuation, tsunami awareness and the need for developing much more resilient communities with effective evacuation plans. To support reconstruction activities and efforts on developing resilient communities in areas at risk, tsunami evacuation simulation can be applied to tsunami mitigation and evacuation planning. In this study, using the compiled information related to the evacuation behavior at Yuriage in Natori during the 2011 tsunami, we simulated the evacuation process and explored the reasons for the large number of fatalities in the area. It was found that residents did evacuate to nearby shelter areas, however after the tsunami warning was increased some evacuees decided to conduct a second step evacuation to a far inland shelter. Simulation results show the consequences of such decision and the outcomes when a second evacuation would not have been performed. The actual reported number of fatalities in the event and the results from simulation are compared to verify the model. The case study shows the contribution of tsunami evacuation models as tools to be applied for the analysis of evacuees' decisions and the related outcomes. In addition, future evacuation plans and activities for reconstruction process and urban planning can be supported by the results provided from this kind of tsunami evacuation models.

Tsunami Warning Protocol for Eruptions of Augustine Volcano, Cook Inlet, Alaska

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Whitmore, P.; Neal, C.; Nyland, D.; Murray, T.; Power, J.

2006-12-01

Augustine is an island volcano that has generated at least one tsunami. During its January 2006 eruption coastal residents of lower Cook Inlet became concerned about tsunami potential. To address this concern, NOAA's West Coast/ Alaska Tsunami Warning Center (WC/ATWC) and the Alaska Volcano Observatory (AVO) jointly developed a tsunami warning protocol for the most likely scenario for tsunami generation at Augustine: a debris avalanche into the Cook Inlet. Tsunami modeling indicates that a wave generated at Augustine volcano could reach coastal communities in approximately 55 minutes. If a shallow seismic event with magnitude greater than 4.5 occurred near Augustine and the AVO had set the level of concern color code to orange or red, the WC/ATWC would immediately issue a warning for the lower Cook Inlet. Given the short tsunami travel times involved, potentially affected communities would be provided as much lead time as possible. Large debris avalanches that could trigger a tsunami in lower Cook Inlet are expected to be accompanied by a strong seismic signal. Seismograms produced by these debris avalanches have unique spectral characteristics. After issuing a warning, the WC/ATWC would compare the observed waveform with known debris avalanches, and would consult with AVO to further evaluate the event using AVO's on-island networks (web cameras, seismic network, etc) to refine or cancel the warning. After the 2006 eruptive phase ended, WC/ATWC, with support from AVO and the University of Alaska Tsunami Warning and Environmental Observatory for Alaska program (TWEAK), developed and installed "splash-gauges" which will provide confirmation of tsunami generation.

The Dependency of Probabilistic Tsunami Hazard Assessment on Magnitude Limits of Seismic Sources in the South China Sea and Adjoining Basins

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, Hongwei; Yuan, Ye; Xu, Zhiguo; Wang, Zongchen; Wang, Juncheng; Wang, Peitao; Gao, Yi; Hou, Jingming; Shan, Di

2017-06-01

The South China Sea (SCS) and its adjacent small basins including Sulu Sea and Celebes Sea are commonly identified as tsunami-prone region by its historical records on seismicity and tsunamis. However, quantification of tsunami hazard in the SCS region remained an intractable issue due to highly complex tectonic setting and multiple seismic sources within and surrounding this area. Probabilistic Tsunami Hazard Assessment (PTHA) is performed in the present study to evaluate tsunami hazard in the SCS region based on a brief review on seismological and tsunami records. 5 regional and local potential tsunami sources are tentatively identified, and earthquake catalogs are generated using Monte Carlo simulation following the Tapered Gutenberg-Richter relationship for each zone. Considering a lack of consensus on magnitude upper bound on each seismic source, as well as its critical role in PTHA, the major concern of the present study is to define the upper and lower limits of tsunami hazard in the SCS region comprehensively by adopting different corner magnitudes that could be derived by multiple principles and approaches, including TGR regression of historical catalog, fault-length scaling, tectonic and seismic moment balance, and repetition of historical largest event. The results show that tsunami hazard in the SCS and adjoining basins is subject to large variations when adopting different corner magnitudes, with the upper bounds 2-6 times of the lower. The probabilistic tsunami hazard maps for specified return periods reveal much higher threat from Cotabato Trench and Sulawesi Trench in the Celebes Sea, whereas tsunami hazard received by the coasts of the SCS and Sulu Sea is relatively moderate, yet non-negligible. By combining empirical method with numerical study of historical tsunami events, the present PTHA results are tentatively validated. The correspondence lends confidence to our study. Considering the proximity of major sources to population-laden cities around the SCS region, the tsunami hazard and risk should be further highlighted in the future.

The potential role of real-time geodetic observations in tsunami early warning

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tinti, Stefano; Armigliato, Alberto

2016-04-01

Tsunami warning systems (TWS) have the final goal to launch a reliable alert of an incoming dangerous tsunami to coastal population early enough to allow people to flee from the shore and coastal areas according to some evacuation plans. In the last decade, especially after the catastrophic 2004 Boxing Day tsunami in the Indian Ocean, much attention has been given to filling gaps in the existing TWSs (only covering the Pacific Ocean at that time) and to establishing new TWSs in ocean regions that were uncovered. Typically, TWSs operating today work only on earthquake-induced tsunamis. TWSs estimate quickly earthquake location and size by real-time processing seismic signals; on the basis of some pre-defined "static" procedures (either based on decision matrices or on pre-archived tsunami simulations), assess the tsunami alert level on a large regional scale and issue specific bulletins to a pre-selected recipients audience. Not unfrequently these procedures result in generic alert messages with little value. What usually operative TWSs do not do, is to compute earthquake focal mechanism, to calculate the co-seismic sea-floor displacement, to assess the initial tsunami conditions, to input these data into tsunami simulation models and to compute tsunami propagation up to the threatened coastal districts. This series of steps is considered nowadays too time consuming to provide the required timely alert. An equivalent series of steps could start from the same premises (earthquake focal parameters) and reach the same result (tsunami height at target coastal areas) by replacing the intermediate steps of real-time tsunami simulations with proper selection from a large archive of pre-computed tsunami scenarios. The advantage of real-time simulations and of archived scenarios selection is that estimates are tailored to the specific occurring tsunami and alert can be more detailed (less generic) and appropriate for local needs. Both these procedures are still at an experimental or testing stage and haven't been implemented yet in any standard TWS operations. Nonetheless, this is seen to be the future and the natural TWS evolving enhancement. In this context, improvement of the real-time estimates of tsunamigenic earthquake focal mechanism is of fundamental importance to trigger the appropriate computational chain. Quick discrimination between strike-slip and thrust-fault earthquakes, and equally relevant, quick assessment of co-seismic on-fault slip distribution, are exemplary cases to which a real-time geodetic monitoring system can contribute significantly. Robust inversion of geodetic data can help to reconstruct the sea floor deformation pattern especially if two conditions are met: the source is not too far from network stations and is well covered azimuthally. These two conditions are sometimes hard to satisfy fully, but in certain regions, like the Mediterranean and the Caribbean sea, this is quite possible due to the limited size of the ocean basins. Close cooperation between the Global Geodetic Observing System (GGOS) community, seismologists, tsunami scientists and TWS operators is highly recommended to obtain significant progresses in the quick determination of the earthquake source, which can trigger a timely estimation of the ensuing tsunami and a more reliable and detailed assessment of the tsunami size at the coast.

An observation on the main factor for the high fatalities by the March 11 earthquake

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ishida, M.; Baba, T.; Ando, M.

2011-12-01

On 11 March 2011, Mw9.0 earthquake occurred in Tohoku district, the northeastern Japan, and caused a large tsunami which affected the greater part of the area. During 115 years prior to this event, large tsunamis have struck the Tohoku region in 1960, 1933 and 1896. Therefore, disaster mitigation efforts have been undertaken in the Tohoku region, such as the construction of incomparably strong breakwaters, the annual practice for tsunami evacuation drill, the preparation of hazard maps, etc. Despite these long-term efforts, ca. 25,000 deaths and missing persons were reported by the National Police Headquarters, Japan. In order to clarify the causes of such high number of the fatalities, we interviewed 120 tsunami survivors in 7 cities mainly in Iwate prefecture in several periods after the earthquake. Since the tsunami arrived more than 20-30 min later after the strong ground shaking stopped and highlands are within about 10 to 20 minutes on foot, residents would have been saved if people had taken an immediate action. We found several major reasons why the residents delayed their evacuation actions as follows: 1. Earthquakes that were forecast for the offshore Tohoku by the governmental committee had been much smaller than the March 11 event. Accordingly, evacuation shelters were located at the lower level than that required for the incoming tsunami; 2. The earthquake magnitude and tsunami height of the first warning issue by Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) was significantly smaller than those of the actual events. Majority of local residents thought that breakwaters would protect them. The JMA renewed the earthquake magnitude and tsunami height step by step, but the corrected information did not reach to the local residents because of the blackout of electric power. Consequently, the residents were unable to get the renewed information through TV or radio; 3. Fifty percent of the local residents experienced the 1960 Chile tsunami that significantly smaller than the March 11 tsunami. Most of them had estimated the height and inundation area of the incoming tsunami based on their experience; 4. People had believed that breakwaters would protect the city from the tsunami. But the March 11 tsunami climbed over and destroyed most breakwaters. Focusing on the reliance of the breakwaters that delayed the evacuation of residents, we numerically simulated the tsunami height caused by the March 11 event in Kamaishi-city for three cases; 1. with breakwaters, 2. without breakwaters, 3. with partially collapsed breakwaters. Our preliminary results showed that the tsunami height does not show much difference among the above three cases during about 20 min from the beginning. Detail of the results will be shown in the poster. It is noticeable that the immoderate confidence on breakwaters delayed the timing for the local resident to evacuation, although there are other reasons that influenced their behaviors. Finally we emphasize that educating children at a young age is important and essential to understand the basic mechanism of tsunami generation even if technology could underestimate tsunami heights, the warning systems could fail, and the breakwaters were not sturdy enough.

Evaluation of Tsunami Run-Up on Coastal Areas at Regional Scale

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

González, M.; Aniel-Quiroga, Í.; Gutiérrez, O.

2017-12-01

Tsunami hazard assessment is tackled by means of numerical simulations, giving as a result, the areas flooded by tsunami wave inland. To get this, some input data is required, i.e., the high resolution topobathymetry of the study area, the earthquake focal mechanism parameters, etc. The computational cost of these kinds of simulations are still excessive. An important restriction for the elaboration of large scale maps at National or regional scale is the reconstruction of high resolution topobathymetry on the coastal zone. An alternative and traditional method consists of the application of empirical-analytical formulations to calculate run-up at several coastal profiles (i.e. Synolakis, 1987), combined with numerical simulations offshore without including coastal inundation. In this case, the numerical simulations are faster but some limitations are added as the coastal bathymetric profiles are very simply idealized. In this work, we present a complementary methodology based on a hybrid numerical model, formed by 2 models that were coupled ad hoc for this work: a non-linear shallow water equations model (NLSWE) for the offshore part of the propagation and a Volume of Fluid model (VOF) for the areas near the coast and inland, applying each numerical scheme where they better reproduce the tsunami wave. The run-up of a tsunami scenario is obtained by applying the coupled model to an ad-hoc numerical flume. To design this methodology, hundreds of worldwide topobathymetric profiles have been parameterized, using 5 parameters (2 depths and 3 slopes). In addition, tsunami waves have been also parameterized by their height and period. As an application of the numerical flume methodology, the coastal parameterized profiles and tsunami waves have been combined to build a populated database of run-up calculations. The combination was tackled by means of numerical simulations in the numerical flume The result is a tsunami run-up database that considers real profiles shape, realistic tsunami waves, and optimized numerical simulations. This database allows the calculation of the run-up of any new tsunami wave by interpolation on the database, in a short period of time, based on the tsunami wave characteristics provided as an output of the NLSWE model along the coast at a large scale domain (regional or National scale).

Barrier spit recovery following the 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami at Pakarang Cape, southwest Thailand

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Koiwa, Naoto; Takahashi, Mio; Sugisawa, Shuhei; Ito, Akifumi; Matsumoto, Hide-aki; Tanavud, Charlchai; Goto, Kazuhisa

2018-04-01

The 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami had notable impacts on coastal landforms. Temporal change in topography by coastal erosion and subsequent formation of a new barrier spit on the nearshore of Pakrang Cape, southeastern Thailand, had been monitored for 10 years since 2005 based on field measurement using satellite images, high-resolution differential GPS, and/or handy GPS. Monitored topography data show that a barrier island was formed offshore from the cape several months after the tsunami event through progradation of multiple elongated gravelly beach ridges and washover fan composed of coral gravels. Subsequently, the barrier spit expanded to the open sea. The progradation and expansion were supported by supply of a large amount of coral debris produced by the tsunami waves. These observations provide useful data to elucidate processes of change in coastal landforms after a tsunami event. The 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami played an important role in barrier spit evolution over a period of at least a decade.

L'aléa tsunami en Polynésie française : synthèse des observations et des mesures

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schindelé, François; Hébert, Hélène; Reymond, Dominique; Sladen, Anthony

2006-12-01

Since 1837, 15 tsunamis in French Polynesia have been reported, 11 generated damage. The two last major Pacific-wide tsunamis, 1946 Aleutian and 1960 Chilean, generated damage in most of the archipelagos. Only one in 1999 was generated by a local source, a coastal cliff failure on Fatu-Hiva Island. Since 1965, no earthquake magnitude was greater than 8.4 and, consequently, no ocean-wide tsunami of large amplitude has crossed the Pacific Ocean. Nevertheless, the four tide gauge installed in French Polynesia recorded 33 distinct tsunamis of amplitude from several centimetres to 1.6 m, generated by earthquakes of magnitude between 7.3 and 8.4, two of them damageable in Marquesas bays. To cite this article: F. Schindelé et al., C. R. Geoscience 338 (2006).

Source characteristics of the Nicaraguan tsunami earthquake of September 2, 1992

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ide, Satoshi; Imamura, Fumihiko; Yoshida, Yasuhiro; Abe, Katsuyuki

1993-05-01

The source mechanisms of the Nicaraguan tsunami earthquake of September 2, 1992 is studied via waveforms of body waves and surface waves recorded on global broadband seismographs. The possibility of a single force is ruled out from radiation patterns and the amplitude ratio of Rayleigh and Love waves. The main shock is interpreted as low-angle thrust fault with strike of 302 deg, dip of 16 deg, and slip of 87 deg, the Cocos plate underthrusting beneath the Caribbean plate. The seismic moment from surface wave analysis is 3.0 x 10 exp 20 Nm. The source dimension is estimated to be 200 x 100 km from the aftershock area. The inversion results of body waves suggest bilateral rupture with rupture velocity as low as 1.5 km/s and duration time of about 100 s. The source process time is unusually long, from which it is inferred that the associated crustal deformation has a long time constant.

An Agent-Based Modeling Approach to Integrate Tsunami Science, Human Behavior, and Unplanned Network Disruptions for Nearfield Tsunami Evacuation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cox, D. T.; Wang, H.; Cramer, L.; Mostafizi, A.; Park, H.

2016-12-01

A 2015 heatwave in Pakistan is blamed for over a thousand deaths. This event consisted of several days of very high temperatures and unusually high humidity for this region. However, none of these days exceeded the threshold for "extreme danger" in terms of the heat index. The heat index is a univariate function of both temperature and humidity which is universally applied at all locations regardless of local climate. Understanding extremes which arise from multiple factors is challenging. In this paper we will present a tool for examining bivariate extreme behavior. The tool, developed in the statistical software R, draws isolines of equal exceedance probability. These isolines can be understood as bivariate "return levels". The tool is based on a dependence framework specific for extremes, is semiparametric, and is able to extrapolate isolines beyond the range of the data. We illustrate this tool using the Pakistan heat wave data and other bivariate data.

Aftereffects of Subduction-Zone Earthquakes: Potential Tsunami Hazards along the Japan Sea Coast.

PubMed

Minoura, Koji; Sugawara, Daisuke; Yamanoi, Tohru; Yamada, Tsutomu

2015-10-01

The 2011 Tohoku-Oki Earthquake is a typical subduction-zone earthquake and is the 4th largest earthquake after the beginning of instrumental observation of earthquakes in the 19th century. In fact, the 2011 Tohoku-Oki Earthquake displaced the northeast Japan island arc horizontally and vertically. The displacement largely changed the tectonic situation of the arc from compressive to tensile. The 9th century in Japan was a period of natural hazards caused by frequent large-scale earthquakes. The aseismic tsunamis that inflicted damage on the Japan Sea coast in the 11th century were related to the occurrence of massive earthquakes that represented the final stage of a period of high seismic activity. Anti-compressive tectonics triggered by the subduction-zone earthquakes induced gravitational instability, which resulted in the generation of tsunamis caused by slope failing at the arc-back-arc boundary. The crustal displacement after the 2011 earthquake infers an increased risk of unexpected local tsunami flooding in the Japan Sea coastal areas.

Tsunami and acoustic-gravity waves in water of constant depth

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Hendin, Gali; Stiassnie, Michael

2013-08-15

A study of wave radiation by a rather general bottom displacement, in a compressible ocean of otherwise constant depth, is carried out within the framework of a three-dimensional linear theory. Simple analytic expressions for the flow field, at large distance from the disturbance, are derived. Realistic numerical examples indicate that the Acoustic-Gravity waves, which significantly precede the Tsunami, are expected to leave a measurable signature on bottom-pressure records that should be considered for early detection of Tsunami.

Tsunami waveform inversion of the 2007 Bengkulu, southern Sumatra, earthquake

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fujii, Y.; Satake, K.

2008-09-01

We performed tsunami waveform inversions for the Bengkulu, southern Sumatra, earthquake on September 12, 2007 (Mw 8.4 by USGS). The tsunami was recorded at many tide gauge stations around the Indian Ocean and by a DART system in the deep ocean. The observed tsunami records indicate that the amplitudes were less than several tens of centimeters at most stations, around 1 m at Padang, the nearest station to the source, and a few centimeters at the DART station. For the tsunami waveform inversions, we adopted 20-, 15- and 10-subfault models. The tsunami waveforms computed from the estimated slip distributions explain the observed waveforms at most stations, regardless of the subfault model. We found that large slips were consistently estimated at the deeper part (>24 km) of the fault plane, located more than 100 km from the trench axis. The largest slips of 6-9 m were located about 100-200 km northwest of the epicenter. The deep slips may have contributed to the relatively small tsunami for its earthquake size. The total seismic moment is calculated as 4.7 × 1021 N m (Mw = 8.4) for the 10-subfault model, our preferred model from a comparison of tsunami waveforms at Cocos and the DART station.

How did the AD 1755 tsunami impact on sand barriers across the southern coast of Portugal?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Costa, Pedro J. M.; Costas, Susana; González-Villanueva, R.; Oliveira, M. A.; Roelvink, D.; Andrade, C.; Freitas, M. C.; Cunha, P. P.; Martins, A.; Buylaert, J.-P.; Murray, A.

2016-09-01

Tsunamis are highly energetic events that may destructively impact the coast. Resolving the degree of coastal resilience to tsunamis is extremely difficult and sometimes impossible. In part, our understanding is constrained by the limited number of contemporaneous examples and by the high dynamism of coastal systems. In fact, long-term changes of coastal systems can mask the evidence of past tsunamis, leaving us a short or incomplete sedimentary archive. Here, we present a multidisciplinary approach involving sedimentological, geomorphological and geophysical analyses and numerical modelling of the AD 1755 tsunami flood on a coastal segment located within the southern coast of Portugal. In particular, the work focuses on deciphering the impact of the tsunami waves over a coastal sand barrier enclosing two lowlands largely inundated by the tsunami flood. Erosional features documented by geophysical data were assigned to the AD 1755 event with support of sedimentological and age estimation results. Furthermore, these features allowed the calibration of the simulation settings to reconstruct the local conditions and establish the run-up range of the AD 1755 tsunami when it hit this coast (6-8 m above mean sea level). Our work highlights the usefulness of erosional imprints preserved in the sediment record to interpret the impact of the extreme events on sand barriers.

A 600-year-long stratigraphic record of tsunamis in south-central Chile

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hong, Isabel; Dura, Tina; Ely, Lisa L.; Horton, Benajamin P.; Nelson, Alan R.; Cisternas, Marco; Nikitina, Daria; Wesson, Robert L.

2017-01-01

The stratigraphy within coastal river valleys in south-central Chile clarifies and extends the region’s history of large, earthquakes and accompanying tsunamis. Our site at Quidico (38.1°S, 73.3°W) is located in an overlap zone between ruptures of magnitude 8–9 earthquakes in 1960 and 2010, and, therefore, records tsunamis originating from subduction-zone ruptures north and south of the city of Concepción. Hand-dug pits and cores in a 3-m-thick sequence of freshwater peat in an abandoned meander (a little-examined depositional environment for tsunami deposits) and exposures along the Quidico River show five sand beds that extend as much as 1.2 km inland. Evidence for deposition of the beds by tsunamis includes tabular sand beds that are laterally extensive (>100 m), well sorted, fine upward, have sharp lower contacts, and contain diatom assemblages dominated by brackish and marine taxa. Using eyewitness accounts of tsunami inundation, 137Cs analyses, and 14C dating, we matched the upper four sand beds with historical tsunamis in 2010, 1960, 1835, and 1751. The oldest prehistoric bed dates to 1445–1490 CE and correlates with lacustrine and coastal records of similar-aged earthquakes and tsunamis in south-central Chile.

The El Salvador and Philippines Tsunamis of August 2012: Insights from Sea Level Data Analysis and Numerical Modeling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Heidarzadeh, Mohammad; Satake, Kenji

2014-12-01

We studied two tsunamis from 2012, one generated by the El Salvador earthquake of 27 August ( Mw 7.3) and the other generated by the Philippines earthquake of 31 August ( Mw 7.6), using sea level data analysis and numerical modeling. For the El Salvador tsunami, the largest wave height was observed in Baltra, Galapagos Islands (71.1 cm) located about 1,400 km away from the source. The tsunami governing periods were around 9 and 19 min. Numerical modeling indicated that most of the tsunami energy was directed towards the Galapagos Islands, explaining the relatively large wave height there. For the Philippines tsunami, the maximum wave height of 30.5 cm was observed at Kushimoto in Japan located about 2,700 km away from the source. The tsunami governing periods were around 8, 12 and 29 min. Numerical modeling showed that a significant part of the far-field tsunami energy was directed towards the southern coast of Japan. Fourier and wavelet analyses as well as numerical modeling suggested that the dominant period of the first wave at stations normal to the fault strike is related to the fault width, while the period of the first wave at stations in the direction of fault strike is representative of the fault length.

The SAFRR tsunami scenario-physical damage in California: Chapter E in The SAFRR (Science Application for Risk Reduction) Tsunami Scenario

USGS Publications Warehouse

Porter, Keith; Byers, William; Dykstra, David; Lim, Amy; Lynett, Patrick; Ratliff, Jaime; Scawthorn, Charles; Wein, Anne; Wilson, Rick

2013-01-01

his chapter attempts to depict a single realistic outcome of the SAFRR (Science Application for Risk Reduction) tsunami scenario in terms of physical damage to and recovery of various aspects of the built environment in California. As described elsewhere in this report, the tsunami is generated by a hypothetical magnitude 9.1 earthquake seaward of the Alaska Peninsula on the Semidi Sector of the Alaska–Aleutian Subduction Zone, 495 miles southwest of Anchorage, at 11:50 a.m. Pacific Daylight Time (PDT) on Thursday March 27, 2014, and arriving at the California coast between 4:00 and 5:40 p.m. (depending on location) the same day. Although other tsunamis could have locally greater impact, this source represents a substantial threat to the state as a whole. One purpose of this chapter is to help operators and users of coastal assets throughout California to develop emergency plans to respond to a real tsunami. Another is to identify ways that operators or owners of these assets can think through options for reducing damage before a future tsunami. A third is to inform the economic analyses for the SAFRR tsunami scenario. And a fourth is to identify research needs to better understand the possible consequences of a tsunami on these assets. The asset classes considered here include the following: Piers, cargo, buildings, and other assets at the Ports of Los Angeles and Long Beach Large vessels in the Ports of Los Angeles and Long Beach Marinas and small craft Coastal buildings Roads and roadway bridges Rail, railway bridges, and rolling stock Agriculture Fire following tsunami Each asset class is examined in a subsection of this chapter. In each subsection, we generally attempt to offer a historical review of damage. We characterize and quantify the assets exposed to loss and describe the modes of damage that have been observed in past tsunamis or are otherwise deemed likely to occur in the SAFRR tsunami scenario. Where practical, we offer a mathematical model of the damageability of assets exposed to loss. Then, applying the damageability model and the velocity, wave amplitude, and inundation models discussed in other SAFRR chapters we offer a single realistic depiction of damage. Other outcomes are of course possible for this hypothetical event. Where practical we estimate repair costs and estimate the duration required to restore the assets to their pre-tsunami condition. We identify opportunities to enhance the resiliency of the assets, either through making them less vulnerable to damage or able to recover more quickly in spite of the damage. Finally, we identify uncertainties in the modeling where research would improve our understanding of the underlying mechanisms of damage and loss or otherwise improve our ability to estimate the future impacts of tsunamis and inform risk-management decisions for tsunamis. However, it is certain that the kinds of damages discussed here have occurred in past tsunamis, even in developed nations, and in a sufficiently large event, will occur in California. Our uncertainties can operate in either direction, either leading to an overestimate of damage or an underestimate. Therefore, losses in an actual future tsunami could be greater than depicted here. Furthermore this evaluation is not intended to be an exhaustive depiction of what could happen in this or similar tsunamis. Other impacts could occur that are not presented here.

Geological Evidences for a Large Tsunami Generated by the 7.3 ka Kikai Caldera Eruption, Southern Japan

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yamada, M.; Fujino, S.; Satake, K.

2017-12-01

The 7.3 ka eruption of Kikai volcano, southern Kyushu, Japan, is one of the largest caldera-forming eruption in the world. Given that a huge caldera was formed in shallow sea area during the eruption, a tsunami must have been generated by a sea-level change associated. Pyroclastic flow and tsunami deposits by the eruption have been studied around the caldera, but they are not enough to evaluate the tsunami size. The goal of this study is to unravel sizes of tsunami and triggering caldera collapse by numerical simulations based on a widely-distributed tsunami deposit associated with the eruption. In this presentation, we will provide an initial data on distribution of the 7.3 ka tsunami deposit contained in sediment cores taken at three coastal lowlands in Wakayama, Tokushima, and Oita prefectures (560 km, 520 km, and 310 km north-east from the caldera, respectively). A volcanic ash from the eruption (Kikai Akahoya tephra: K-Ah) is evident in organic-rich muddy sedimentary sequence in all sediment cores. Up to 6-cm-thick sand layer, characterized by a grading structure and sharp bed boundary with lower mud, is observed immediately beneath the K-Ah tephra in all study sites. These sedimentary characteristics and broad distribution indicate that the sand layer was most likely deposited by a tsunami which can propagate to a wide area, but not by a local storm surge. Furthermore, the stratigraphic relationship implies that the study sites must have been inundated by the tsunami prior to the ash fall. A sand layer is also evident within the K-Ah tephra layer, suggesting that the sand layer was probably formed by a subsequent tsunami wave during the ash fall. These geological evidences for the 7.3 ka tsunami inundation will contribute to a better understanding of the caldera collapse and the resultant tsunami, but also of the tsunami generating system in the eruptive process.

Numerical Simulations of the 1991 Limón Tsunami, Costa Rica Caribbean Coast

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chacón-Barrantes, Silvia; Zamora, Natalia

2017-08-01

The second largest recorded tsunami along the Caribbean margin of Central America occurred 25 years ago. On April 22nd, 1991, an earthquake with magnitude Mw 7.6 ruptured along the thrust faults that form the North Panamá Deformed Belt (NPDB). The earthquake triggered a tsunami that affected the Caribbean coast of Costa Rica and Panamá within few minutes, generating two casualties. These are the only deaths caused by a tsunami in Costa Rica. Coseismic uplift up to 1.6 m and runup values larger than 2 m were measured along some coastal sites. Here, we consider three solutions for the seismic source as initial conditions to model the tsunami, each considering a single rupture plane. We performed numerical modeling of the tsunami propagation and runup using NEOWAVE numerical model (Yamazaki et al. in Int J Numer Methods Fluids 67:2081-2107, 2010, doi: 10.1002/fld.2485 ) on a system of nested grids from the entire Caribbean Sea to Limón city. The modeled surface deformation and tsunami runup agreed with the measured data along most of the coastal sites with one preferred model that fits the field data. The model results are useful to determine how the 1991 tsunami could have affected regions where tsunami records were not preserved and to simulate the effects of the coastal surface deformations as buffer to tsunami. We also performed tsunami modeling to simulate the consequences if a similar event with larger magnitude Mw 7.9 occurs offshore the southern Costa Rican Caribbean coast. Such event would generate maximum wave heights of more than 5 m showing that Limón and northwestern Panamá coastal areas are exposed to moderate-to-large tsunamis. These simulations considering historical events and maximum credible scenarios can be useful for hazard assessment and also as part of studies leading to tsunami evacuation maps and mitigation plans, even when that is not the scope of this paper.

Hydraulic experiment on formation mechanism of tsunami deposit and verification of sediment transport model for tsunamis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yamamoto, A.; Takahashi, T.; Harada, K.; Sakuraba, M.; Nojima, K.

2017-12-01

An underestimation of the 2011 Tohoku tsunami caused serious damage in coastal area. Reconsideration for tsunami estimation needs knowledge of paleo tsunamis. The historical records of giant tsunamis are limited, because they had occurred infrequently. Tsunami deposits may include many of tsunami records and are expected to analyze paleo tsunamis. However, present research on tsunami deposits are not able to estimate the tsunami source and its magnitude. Furthermore, numerical models of tsunami and its sediment transport are also important. Takahashi et al. (1999) proposed a model of movable bed condition due to tsunamis, although it has some issues. Improvement of the model needs basic data on sediment transport and deposition. This study investigated the formation mechanism of tsunami deposit by hydraulic experiment using a two-dimensional water channel with slope. In a fixed bed condition experiment, velocity, water level and suspended load concentration were measured at many points. In a movable bed condition, effects of sand grains and bore wave on the deposit were examined. Yamamoto et al. (2016) showed deposition range varied with sand grain sizes. In addition, it is revealed that the range fluctuated by number of waves and wave period. The measurements of velocity and water level showed that flow was clearly different near shoreline and in run-up area. Large velocity by return flow was affected the amount of sand deposit near shoreline. When a cutoff wall was installed on the slope, the amount of sand deposit repeatedly increased and decreased. Especially, sand deposit increased where velocity decreased. Takahashi et al. (1999) adapted the proposed model into Kesennuma bay when the 1960 Chilean tsunami arrived, although the amount of sand transportation was underestimated. The cause of the underestimation is inferred that the velocity of this model was underestimated. A relationship between velocity and sediment transport has to be studied in detail, but observation of velocity in Kesennnuma bay had a low accuracy. On the other hand, this hydraulic experiment measured accurate velocity and sand deposition distribution of various condition. Based on these data, we tried more accurate verification of the model of Takahashi et al. (1999).

The Global Tsunami Model (GTM)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Thio, H. K.; Løvholt, F.; Harbitz, C. B.; Polet, J.; Lorito, S.; Basili, R.; Volpe, M.; Romano, F.; Selva, J.; Piatanesi, A.; Davies, G.; Griffin, J.; Baptista, M. A.; Omira, R.; Babeyko, A. Y.; Power, W. L.; Salgado Gálvez, M.; Behrens, J.; Yalciner, A. C.; Kanoglu, U.; Pekcan, O.; Ross, S.; Parsons, T.; LeVeque, R. J.; Gonzalez, F. I.; Paris, R.; Shäfer, A.; Canals, M.; Fraser, S. A.; Wei, Y.; Weiss, R.; Zaniboni, F.; Papadopoulos, G. A.; Didenkulova, I.; Necmioglu, O.; Suppasri, A.; Lynett, P. J.; Mokhtari, M.; Sørensen, M.; von Hillebrandt-Andrade, C.; Aguirre Ayerbe, I.; Aniel-Quiroga, Í.; Guillas, S.; Macias, J.

2016-12-01

The large tsunami disasters of the last two decades have highlighted the need for a thorough understanding of the risk posed by relatively infrequent but disastrous tsunamis and the importance of a comprehensive and consistent methodology for quantifying the hazard. In the last few years, several methods for probabilistic tsunami hazard analysis have been developed and applied to different parts of the world. In an effort to coordinate and streamline these activities and make progress towards implementing the Sendai Framework of Disaster Risk Reduction (SFDRR) we have initiated a Global Tsunami Model (GTM) working group with the aim of i) enhancing our understanding of tsunami hazard and risk on a global scale and developing standards and guidelines for it, ii) providing a portfolio of validated tools for probabilistic tsunami hazard and risk assessment at a range of scales, and iii) developing a global tsunami hazard reference model. This GTM initiative has grown out of the tsunami component of the Global Assessment of Risk (GAR15), which has resulted in an initial global model of probabilistic tsunami hazard and risk. Started as an informal gathering of scientists interested in advancing tsunami hazard analysis, the GTM is currently in the process of being formalized through letters of interest from participating institutions. The initiative has now been endorsed by the United Nations International Strategy for Disaster Reduction (UNISDR) and the World Bank's Global Facility for Disaster Reduction and Recovery (GFDRR). We will provide an update on the state of the project and the overall technical framework, and discuss the technical issues that are currently being addressed, including earthquake source recurrence models, the use of aleatory variability and epistemic uncertainty, and preliminary results for a probabilistic global hazard assessment, which is an update of the model included in UNISDR GAR15.

Recent Findings on Tsunami Hazards in the Makran Subduction Zone, NW Indian Ocean

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Heidarzadeh, M.; Satake, K.

2014-12-01

We present recent findings on tsunami hazards in the Makran subduction zone (MSZ), NW Indian Ocean, based on the results of tsunami source analyses for two Makran tsunamis of 1945 and 2013. A re-analysis of the source of the 27 November 1945 tsunami in the MSZ showed that the slip needs to be extended to deep waters around the depth contour of 3000 m in order to reproduce the observed tide gauge waveforms at Karachi and Mumbai. On the other hand, coastal uplift report at Ormara (Pakistan) implies that the source fault needs to be extended inland. In comparison to other existing fault models, our fault model is longer and includes a heterogeneous slip with larger maximum slip. The recent tsunami on 24 September 2013 in the Makran region was triggered by an inland Mw 7.7 earthquake. While the main shock and all aftershocks were located inland, a tsunami with a dominant period of around 12 min was recorded on tide gauges and a DART station. We examined different possible sources for this tsunami including a mud volcano, a mud/shale diapir, and a landslide/slump through numerical modeling. Only a submarine slump with a source dimension of 10-15 km and a thickness of around 100 m, located 60-70 km offshore Jiwani (Pakistan) at the water depth of around 2000m, was able to reasonably reproduce the observed tsunami waveforms. In terms of tsunami hazards, analyses of the two tsunamis provide new insights: 1) large runup heights can be generated in the coastal areas due to slip in deep waters, and 2) even an inland earthquake may generate tsunamigenic submarine landslides.

Tsunamis along the Peru-Chile Trench: analysing the effect of co-seismic deformation on tsunami inundation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Omira, R.; Baptista, M. A.; Miranda, J. M. A.

2016-12-01

Large earthquakes occurring along the near-shore subduction zones have the potential of causing noticeable onshore co-seismic deformations. The onshore uplift and subsidence caused by the earthquake rupture can change the coastal land morphology and, therefore, control the tsunami impact. Along the Peru-Chile trench, where the occurrence of massive tsunamigenic earthquakes is quite frequent, the earthquake faults have important extent beneath the continent which results in significant seismic-induced deformation of the coastal zones as testified by the 2010 Mw8.8 Maule event. In this study, we investigate the effects of the seismic-induced onshore coastal deformation on the tsunami inundation for the Mw8.3 Illapel and the Mw8.8 Maule Chilean earthquakes that happened on September 16th, 2015 and February 27th, 2010, respectively. The study involves the relation between the co-seismic deformation and the tsunami impact in the near-field. For both studied tsunami events, we numerically simulate the near-field tsunami inundation with and without taking into account the earthquake rupture-induced changes on the coastal land morphology. We compare the simulated tsunami inundation extent and run-up with the field-survey data collected in previous works for both the 2015 Illapel and the 2010 Maule tsunamis. We find that the onshore component of the co-seismic deformations of the two Chilean subduction earthquakes lead to significant changes in coastal land morphology that mainly affect the inundation close to the source, which, therefore, explain the concentrated tsunami impact observed. This work received funding from project ASTARTE - Assessment Strategy and Risk Reduction for Tsunamis in Europe, Grant 603839, FP7-ENV2013 6.4-3, and project TSUMAPS - NEAM, agreement number ECHO/SUB/2015/718568/PREV26.

The Global Tsunami Model (GTM)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Løvholt, Finn

2017-04-01

The large tsunami disasters of the last two decades have highlighted the need for a thorough understanding of the risk posed by relatively infrequent but disastrous tsunamis and the importance of a comprehensive and consistent methodology for quantifying the hazard. In the last few years, several methods for probabilistic tsunami hazard analysis have been developed and applied to different parts of the world. In an effort to coordinate and streamline these activities and make progress towards implementing the Sendai Framework of Disaster Risk Reduction (SFDRR) we have initiated a Global Tsunami Model (GTM) working group with the aim of i) enhancing our understanding of tsunami hazard and risk on a global scale and developing standards and guidelines for it, ii) providing a portfolio of validated tools for probabilistic tsunami hazard and risk assessment at a range of scales, and iii) developing a global tsunami hazard reference model. This GTM initiative has grown out of the tsunami component of the Global Assessment of Risk (GAR15), which has resulted in an initial global model of probabilistic tsunami hazard and risk. Started as an informal gathering of scientists interested in advancing tsunami hazard analysis, the GTM is currently in the process of being formalized through letters of interest from participating institutions. The initiative has now been endorsed by the United Nations International Strategy for Disaster Reduction (UNISDR) and the World Bank's Global Facility for Disaster Reduction and Recovery (GFDRR). We will provide an update on the state of the project and the overall technical framework, and discuss the technical issues that are currently being addressed, including earthquake source recurrence models, the use of aleatory variability and epistemic uncertainty, and preliminary results for a probabilistic global hazard assessment, which is an update of the model included in UNISDR GAR15.

Tsunami Impact in Morocco due to Most Credible Tsunami Scenarios in the Gulf of Cadiz.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Omira, R.; Baptista, M. A.; Miranda, J. M.; Toto, E. A.

2009-04-01

In the Gulf of Cadiz, the tsunami risk should be considered major due to the peculiar geological context close to the Nubia-Eurasia plate boundary and also to the high vulnerability of the coastlines in the region. The extensive occupation of coastal areas in the surrounding countries - Portugal, Spain and Morocco, the enormous influxes of tourists during high season and the large economic value of harbors and other coastal facilities increase considerably the vulnerability to tsunami impact. In order to establish the Most Credible Tsunami Scenarios we used the earthquake scenarios in the Gulf of Cadiz area. Each scenario has an associated typical fault/or faults and a set of fault parameters that are used as input to compute the sea bottom deformation using Okada's equations. Tsunami propagation uses COMCOT-LX, modified version of the COMCOT Cornnell University code. Maximum wave height (MWH) and tsunami energy direction are computed, for each tsunamigenic scenario for the north Atlantic coast of Morocco. Finally we selected the harbor of Casablanca for the production of inundation maps for Casablanca This research was funded by NEAREST and TRANSFER, 6FP-European Union.

Post-eruptive flooding of Santorini caldera and implications for tsunami generation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nomikou, Paraskevi; Druitt, Tim; Hübscher, Christian; Mather, Tamsin; Paulatto, Michele; Kalnins, Lara; Kelfoun, Karim; Papanikolaou, Dimitris; Bejelou, Konstantina; Lampridou, Danai; Pyle, David; Carey, Steven; Watts, Anthony; Weiß, Benedikt; Parks, Michelle

2017-04-01

Caldera-forming eruptions of island volcanoes generate tsunamis by the interaction of different eruptive phenomena with the sea. Such tsunamis are a major hazard, but forward models of their impacts are limited by poor understanding of source mechanisms. The eruption of Santorini 3600 years ago was one of the largest of eruptions known worldwide from the past 10,000 years - and was at least 3 times larger than the catastrophic eruption of Krakatoa. This huge eruption evacuated large volumes of magma, causing collapse of the large caldera, which is now filled with seawater. Tsunamis from this eruption have been proposed to have played a role in the demise of the Minoan culture across the southern Aegean, through damage to coastal towns, harbors, shipping and maritime trade. Before the eruption, there was an older caldera in the northern part of Santorini, partly filled with a shallow lagoon. In our study, we present bathymetric and seismic evidence showing that the caldera was not open to the sea during the main phase of the eruption, but was flooded once the eruption had finished. Following subsidence of the caldera floor, rapid inflow of seawater and landslides cut a deep 2.0-2.5 km3 submarine channel into the northern flank of the caldera wall. Hydrodynamic modelling indicates that the caldera was flooded through this breach in less than a couple of days. It was previously proposed that collapse of the caldera could have led to the formation of a major tsunami; but this is ruled out by our new evidence. Any tsunami's generated were most likely caused by entry of pyroclastic flows into the sea, combined with slumping of submarine pyroclastic accumulations. This idea is consistent with previous assertions that pyroclastic flows were the main cause of tsunamis at Krakatau.

Explosive eruption, flank collapse and megatsunami at Tenerife ca. 170 ka.

PubMed

Paris, Raphaël; Bravo, Juan J Coello; González, María E Martín; Kelfoun, Karim; Nauret, François

2017-05-15

Giant mass failures of oceanic shield volcanoes that generate tsunamis potentially represent a high-magnitude but low-frequency hazard, and it is actually difficult to infer the mechanisms and dynamics controlling them. Here we document tsunami deposits at high elevation (up to 132 m) on the north-western slopes of Tenerife, Canary Islands, as a new evidence of megatsunami generated by volcano flank failure. Analyses of the tsunami deposits demonstrate that two main tsunamis impacted the coasts of Tenerife 170 kyr ago. The first tsunami was generated during the submarine stage of a retrogressive failure of the northern flank of the island, whereas the second one followed the debris avalanche of the subaerial edifice and incorporated pumices from an on-going ignimbrite-forming eruption. Coupling between a massive retrogressive flank failure and a large explosive eruption represents a new type of volcano-tectonic event on oceanic shield volcanoes and a new hazard scenario.

Tsunami and shelf resonance on the northern Chile coast

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cortés, Pablo; Catalán, Patricio A.; Aránguiz, Rafael; Bellotti, Giorgio

2017-09-01

This work presents the analysis of long waves resonance in two of the main cities along the northern coast of Chile, Arica, and Iquique, where a large tsunamigenic potential remains despite recent earthquakes. By combining a modal analysis solving the equation of free surface oscillations, with the analysis of background spectra derived from in situ measurements, the spatial and temporal structures of the modes are recovered. Comparison with spectra from three tsunamis of different characteristics shows that the modes found have been excited by past events. Moreover, the two locations show different response patterns. Arica is more sensitive to the characteristics of the tsunami source, whereas Iquique shows a smaller dependency and similar response for different tsunami events. Results are further compared with other methodologies with good agreement. These findings are relevant in characterizing the tsunami hazard in the area, and the methodology can be further extended to other regions along the Chilean coast.

The 17 July 2006 Tsunami earthquake in West Java, Indonesia

USGS Publications Warehouse

Mori, J.; Mooney, W.D.; Afnimar,; Kurniawan, S.; Anaya, A.I.; Widiyantoro, S.

2007-01-01

A tsunami earthquake (Mw = 7.7) occurred south of Java on 17 July 2006. The event produced relatively low levels of high-frequency radiation, and local felt reports indicated only weak shaking in Java. There was no ground motion damage from the earthquake, but there was extensive damage and loss of life from the tsunami along 250 km of the southern coasts of West Java and Central Java. An inspection of the area a few days after the earthquake showed extensive damage to wooden and unreinforced masonry buildings that were located within several hundred meters of the coast. Since there was no tsunami warning system in place, efforts to escape the large waves depended on how people reacted to the earthquake shaking, which was only weakly felt in the coastal areas. This experience emphasizes the need for adequate tsunami warning systems for the Indian Ocean region.

Preliminary vulnerability evaluation by local tsunami and flood by Puerto Vallarta

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Trejo-Gómez, E.; Nunez-Cornu, F. J.; Ortiz, M.; Escudero, C. R.; CA-UdG-276 Sisvoc

2013-05-01

Jalisco coast is susceptible to local tsunami due to the occurrence of large earthquakes. In 1932 occurred three by largest earthquakes. Evidence suggests that one of them caused by offshore subsidence of sediments deposited by Armeria River. For the tsunamis 1932 have not been studied the seismic source. On October 9, 1995, occurred a large earthquake (Mw= 8.0) producing a tsunami with run up height up ≤ 5 m. This event affected Tenacatita Bay and many small villages along the coast of Jalisco and Colima. Using seismic source parameters, we simulated 1995 tsunami and estimated the maximum wave height. We compared the our results with 20 field measures 20 taked during 1995 along the south cost of Jalisco State, from Chalacatepec to Barra de Navidad. Similar seismic source parameters used for tsunami 1995 simulation was used as reference for simulating a hypothetical seismic source front Puerto Vallarta. We assumed that the fracture occurs in the gap for the north cost of Jalisco. Ten sites were distributed to cover the Banderas Bay, as theoretical pressure sensors, were estimated the maximum wave height and time to arrived at cost. After we delimited zones hazard zones by floods on digital model terrain, a graphic scale 1:20,000. At the moment, we have already included information by hazard caused by hypothetical tsunami in Puerto Vallarta. The hazard zones by flood were the north of Puerto Vallarta, as Ameca, El Salado, El Pitillal and Camarones. The initial wave height could be ≤ 1 m, 15 minutes after earthquake, in Pitillal zone. We estimated for Puerto Vallarta the maximum flood area was in El Salado zone, ≤ 2 km, with the maximum wave height > 3 m to ≤ 4.8 m at 25 and 75 minutes. We estimated a previous vulnerability evaluation by local tsunami and flood; it was based on the spatial distribution of socio-economic data from INEGI. We estimated a low vulnerability in El Salado and height vulnerability for El Pitillal and Ameca.

Determination of source process and the tsunami simulation of the 2013 Santa Cruz earthquake

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Park, S. C.; Lee, J. W.; Park, E.; Kim, S.

2014-12-01

In order to understand the characteristics of large tsunamigenic earthquakes, we analyzed the earthquake source process of the 2013 Santa Cruz earthquake and simulated the following tsunami. We first estimated the fault length of about 200 km using 3-day aftershock distribution and the source duration of about 110 seconds using the duration of high-frequency energy radiation (Hara, 2007). Moment magnitude was estimated to be 8.0 using the formula of Hara (2007). From the results of 200 km of fault length and 110 seconds of source duration, we used the initial value of rupture velocity as 1.8 km/s for teleseismic waveform inversions. Teleseismic body wave inversion was carried out using the inversion package by Kikuchi and Kanamori (1991). Teleseismic P waveform data from 14 stations were used and band-pass filter of 0.005 ~ 1 Hz was applied. Our best-fit solution indicated that the earthquake occurred on the northwesterly striking (strike = 305) and shallowly dipping (dip = 13) fault plane. Focal depth was determined to be 23 km indicating shallow event. Moment magnitude of 7.8 was obtained showing somewhat smaller than the result obtained above and that of previous study (Lay et al., 2013). Large slip area was seen around the hypocenter. Using the slip distribution obtained by teleseismic waveform inversion, we calculated the surface deformations using formulas of Okada (1985) assuming as the initial change of sea water by tsunami. Then tsunami simulation was carred out using Conell Multi-grid Coupled Tsunami Model (COMCOT) code and 1 min-grid topographic data for water depth from the General Bathymetric Chart of the Ocenas (GEBCO). According to the tsunami simulation, most of tsunami waves propagated to the directions of southwest and northeast which are perpendicular to the fault strike. DART buoy data were used to verify our simulation. In the presentation, we will discuss more details on the results of source process and tsunami simulation and compare them with the previous study.

Suitability of Open-Ocean Instrumentation for Use in Near-Field Tsunami Early Warning Along Seismically Active Subduction Zones

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Williamson, Amy L.; Newman, Andrew V.

2018-05-01

Over the past decade, the number of open-ocean gauges capable of parsing information about a passing tsunami has steadily increased, particularly through national cable networks and international buoyed efforts such as the Deep-ocean Assessment and Reporting of Tsunami (DART). This information is analyzed to disseminate tsunami warnings to affected regions. However, most current warnings that incorporate tsunami are directed at mid- and far-field localities. In this study, we analyze the region surrounding four seismically active subduction zones, Cascadia, Japan, Chile, and Java, for their potential to facilitate local tsunami early warning using such systems. We assess which locations currently have instrumentation in the right locations for direct tsunami observations with enough time to provide useful warning to the nearest affected coastline—and which are poorly suited for such systems. Our primary findings are that while some regions are ill-suited for this type of early warning, such as the coastlines of Chile, other localities, like Java, Indonesia, could incorporate direct tsunami observations into their hazard forecasts with enough lead time to be effective for coastal community emergency response. We take into account the effect of tsunami propagation with regard to shallow bathymetry on the fore-arc as well as the effect of earthquake source placement. While it is impossible to account for every type of off-shore tsunamigenic event in these locales, this study aims to characterize a typical large tsunamigenic event occurring in the shallow part of the megathrust as a guide in what is feasible with early tsunami warning.

A Self-Consistent Fault Slip Model for the 2011 Tohoku Earthquake and Tsunami

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yamazaki, Yoshiki; Cheung, Kwok Fai; Lay, Thorne

2018-02-01

The unprecedented geophysical and hydrographic data sets from the 2011 Tohoku earthquake and tsunami have facilitated numerous modeling and inversion analyses for a wide range of dislocation models. Significant uncertainties remain in the slip distribution as well as the possible contribution of tsunami excitation from submarine slumping or anelastic wedge deformation. We seek a self-consistent model for the primary teleseismic and tsunami observations through an iterative approach that begins with downsampling of a finite fault model inverted from global seismic records. Direct adjustment of the fault displacement guided by high-resolution forward modeling of near-field tsunami waveform and runup measurements improves the features that are not satisfactorily accounted for by the seismic wave inversion. The results show acute sensitivity of the runup to impulsive tsunami waves generated by near-trench slip. The adjusted finite fault model is able to reproduce the DART records across the Pacific Ocean in forward modeling of the far-field tsunami as well as the global seismic records through a finer-scale subfault moment- and rake-constrained inversion, thereby validating its ability to account for the tsunami and teleseismic observations without requiring an exotic source. The upsampled final model gives reasonably good fits to onshore and offshore geodetic observations albeit early after-slip effects and wedge faulting that cannot be reliably accounted for. The large predicted slip of over 20 m at shallow depth extending northward to 39.7°N indicates extensive rerupture and reduced seismic hazard of the 1896 tsunami earthquake zone, as inferred to varying extents by several recent joint and tsunami-only inversions.

Numerical study of tsunami generated by multiple submarine slope failures in Resurrection Bay, Alaska, during the MW 9.2 1964 earthquake

USGS Publications Warehouse

Suleimani, E.; Hansen, R.; Haeussler, Peter J.

2009-01-01

We use a viscous slide model of Jiang and LeBlond (1994) coupled with nonlinear shallow water equations to study tsunami waves in Resurrection Bay, in south-central Alaska. The town of Seward, located at the head of Resurrection Bay, was hit hard by both tectonic and local landslide-generated tsunami waves during the MW 9.2 1964 earthquake with an epicenter located about 150 km northeast of Seward. Recent studies have estimated the total volume of underwater slide material that moved in Resurrection Bay during the earthquake to be about 211 million m3. Resurrection Bay is a glacial fjord with large tidal ranges and sediments accumulating on steep underwater slopes at a high rate. Also, it is located in a seismically active region above the Aleutian megathrust. All these factors make the town vulnerable to locally generated waves produced by underwater slope failures. Therefore it is crucial to assess the tsunami hazard related to local landslide-generated tsunamis in Resurrection Bay in order to conduct comprehensive tsunami inundation mapping at Seward. We use numerical modeling to recreate the landslides and tsunami waves of the 1964 earthquake to test the hypothesis that the local tsunami in Resurrection Bay has been produced by a number of different slope failures. We find that numerical results are in good agreement with the observational data, and the model could be employed to evaluate landslide tsunami hazard in Alaska fjords for the purposes of tsunami hazard mitigation. ?? Birkh??user Verlag, Basel 2009.

Rapid tsunami models and earthquake source parameters: Far-field and local applications

USGS Publications Warehouse

Geist, E.L.

2005-01-01

Rapid tsunami models have recently been developed to forecast far-field tsunami amplitudes from initial earthquake information (magnitude and hypocenter). Earthquake source parameters that directly affect tsunami generation as used in rapid tsunami models are examined, with particular attention to local versus far-field application of those models. First, validity of the assumption that the focal mechanism and type of faulting for tsunamigenic earthquakes is similar in a given region can be evaluated by measuring the seismic consistency of past events. Second, the assumption that slip occurs uniformly over an area of rupture will most often underestimate the amplitude and leading-wave steepness of the local tsunami. Third, sometimes large magnitude earthquakes will exhibit a high degree of spatial heterogeneity such that tsunami sources will be composed of distinct sub-events that can cause constructive and destructive interference in the wavefield away from the source. Using a stochastic source model, it is demonstrated that local tsunami amplitudes vary by as much as a factor of two or more, depending on the local bathymetry. If other earthquake source parameters such as focal depth or shear modulus are varied in addition to the slip distribution patterns, even greater uncertainty in local tsunami amplitude is expected for earthquakes of similar magnitude. Because of the short amount of time available to issue local warnings and because of the high degree of uncertainty associated with local, model-based forecasts as suggested by this study, direct wave height observations and a strong public education and preparedness program are critical for those regions near suspected tsunami sources.

Comparison of the incidence of acute decompensated heart failure before and after the major tsunami in Northeast Japan.

PubMed

Nakamura, Motoyuki; Tanaka, Fumitaka; Nakajima, Satoshi; Honma, Miho; Sakai, Toshiaki; Kawakami, Mikio; Endo, Hiroshi; Onodera, Masayuki; Niiyama, Masanobu; Komatsu, Takashi; Sakamaki, Kentaro; Onoda, Toshiyuki; Sakata, Kiyomi; Morino, Yoshihiro; Takahashi, Tomohiro; Makita, Shinji

2012-12-15

On March 11, 2011, a huge tsunami attacked the northeastern coast of Japan after a magnitude 9 earthquake. No reports have investigated the impact of tsunamis on the incidence of cardiovascular disease, especially heart failure (HF). We investigated the number and clinical characteristics of hospitalized patients with acute decompensated HF (ADHF) in the east coast of Iwate hit by the tsunami (tsunami area) for a 12-week period around the disaster. For comparison with previous years, numbers of ADHF were surveyed in the corresponding area in 2009 and 2010. In addition, to elucidate the impact of the tsunami, a similar study was performed in a remote area where the tsunami had minimal effect (control area). After the disaster, the number of patients with ADHF in the tsunami area was significantly increased compared to the predisaster period (relative risk 1.97, 95% confidence interval 1.50 to 2.59). The peak was found 3 to 4 weeks after the disaster. In contrast, in the control area, no significant change in ADHF events was observed (relative risk 1.29, 95% confidence interval 0.94 to 1.78). There was a significant correlation between changes in the number of ADHF admissions and percent tsunami flood area (r = 0.73, p <0.001) or the number of shelter evacuees (r = 0.83, p <0.001). In conclusion, these findings suggest that large and sudden changes in daily life and the trauma associated with a devastating tsunami have a significant impact on the incidence of ADHF. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Optimization of the Number and Location of Tsunami Stations in a Tsunami Warning System

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

An, C.; Liu, P. L. F.; Pritchard, M. E.

2014-12-01

Optimizing the number and location of tsunami stations in designing a tsunami warning system is an important and practical problem. It is always desirable to maximize the capability of the data obtained from the stations for constraining the earthquake source parameters, and to minimize the number of stations at the same time. During the 2011 Tohoku tsunami event, 28 coastal gauges and DART buoys in the near-field recorded tsunami waves, providing an opportunity for assessing the effectiveness of those stations in identifying the earthquake source parameters. Assuming a single-plane fault geometry, inversions of tsunami data from combinations of various number (1~28) of stations and locations are conducted and evaluated their effectiveness according to the residues of the inverse method. Results show that the optimized locations of stations depend on the number of stations used. If the stations are optimally located, 2~4 stations are sufficient to constrain the source parameters. Regarding the optimized location, stations must be uniformly spread in all directions, which is not surprising. It is also found that stations within the source region generally give worse constraint of earthquake source than stations farther from source, which is due to the exaggeration of model error in matching large amplitude waves at near-source stations. Quantitative discussions on these findings will be given in the presentation. Applying similar analysis to the Manila Trench based on artificial scenarios of earthquakes and tsunamis, the optimal location of tsunami stations are obtained, which provides guidance of deploying a tsunami warning system in this region.

The Use of Intensity Scales In Exploiting Tsunami Historical Databases

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Barberopoulou, A.; Scheele, F.

2015-12-01

Post-disaster assessments for historical tsunami events (>15 years old) are either scarce or contain limited information. In this study, we are assessing ways to examine tsunami impacts by utilizing data from old events, but more importantly we examine how to best utilize information contained in tsunami historical databases, in order to provide meaningful products that describe the impact of the event. As such, a tsunami intensity scale was applied to two historical events that were observed in New Zealand (one local and one distant), in order to utilize the largest possible number of observations in our dataset. This is especially important for countries like New Zealand where the tsunami historical record is short, going back to only the 19th century, and where instrument recordings are only available for the most recent events. We found that despite a number of challenges in using intensities -uncertainties partly due to limitations of historical event data - these data with the help of GIS tools can be used to produce hazard maps and offer an alternative way to exploit tsunami historical records. Most importantly the assignment of intensities at each point of observation allows for utilization of many more observations than if one depends on physical information alone, such as water heights. We hope these results may be used towards developing a well-defined methodology for hazard assessments, and refine our knowledge for past tsunami events for which the tsunami sources are largely unknown, and also for when physical quantities describing the tsunami (e.g. water height, flood depth, run-up) are scarce.

Evidence of Past Large Storms or Tsunamis from an Uplifted Section of the Southern Hikurangi Margin, Wairarapa Coast, New Zealand

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mitchell, S. P.; Jessica, P.; Clark, K.; Kosciuch, T. J.; Reinhardt, E. G.

2017-12-01

Evidence of past large storms or tsunamis from an uplifted section of the southern Hikurangi margin, Wairarapa coast, New Zealand Stephen Mitchell1, Jessica Pilarczyk1, Kate Clark2, Thomas Kosciuch1, Eduard Reinhardt31University of Southern Mississippi, Department of Marine Science 2GNS Science, New Zealand 3McMaster University The Hikurangi margin, located along the east coast of New Zealand, has generated multiple tsunamigenic-earthquakes in the historic times that have impacted coastlines of the North Island. Knowledge of the possible magnitudes and recurrence intervals associated with Hikurangi earthquakes and tsunamis is necessary to understand and mitigate hazards facing New Zealand's coasts. Events such as the 1931 Napier earthquake, which caused severe ground shaking, and the Gisborne tsunami of 1947 that reached 10 meters high, demonstrate the earthquake and tsunami hazards associated with the Hikurangi margin. To better understand these hazards, longer-term geologic records are needed. Along the Wairarapa coast of the North Island of New Zealand, marine terraces provide evidence for multiple Hikurangi earthquakes over the past 7,000 years. Evidence for possible tsunami inundation in this area has also been discovered, but the record is patchy in spatial and temporal extent. We found three anomalous sand layers preserved within an uplifted beach exposure along the Wairarapa coast. The sand layers, consisting of very fine to coarse sand (3.5-0.8 Φ), sharply overlie paleosols containing fine to medium sized silt (6.1-7.1 Φ) in a sequence that extends for approximately 400 meters along shore. We assign a marine origin to the sand layers because they contain relatively high elemental concentrations of calcium and barium. By contrast, the paleosols contained relatively high elemental concentrations of iron. The marine sands contain evidence in support of tsunami inundation; rip-up clasts, coarse pulses, fining upward sequences, and erosive contacts were observed in each of the three sands. Radiocarbon dating will constrain the ages of the marine sands, providing a record of possible tsunamis­­ that may be used to better understand tsunami hazards along the southern Hikurangi margin.

Computed inundation heights of the 2011 Tohoku tsunami compared to measured run-up data: hints for tsunami source inversion

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pagnoni, G.; Tinti, S.; Armigliato, A.

2012-04-01

The 11 March 2011 earthquake that took place off the Pacific coast of Tohoku, North Honshu, with Mw = 9.0, is the largest earthquake ever occurred in Japan, and generated a big tsunami that spread across the Pacific Ocean, causing devastating effects in the prefectures of Aomori, Iwate, Miyagi and Fukushima. It caused more than 15,000 casualties, swept away the low-land quarters of several villages and moreover was the primary cause of the severe nuclear accident in the Fukushima Nuclear Power Plant. There is a very large set of observations covering both the earthquake and the tsunami, and almost certainly this is the case with the most abundant dataset of high-quality data in the history of seismology and of tsunami science. Local and global seismic networks, continuous GPS networks, coastal tide gauges in Japan ports and across the Pacific, local buoys cabled deep ocean-bottom pressure gauges (OBPG) and deep-ocean buoys (such as DART) mainly along the foot of the margins of the pacific continents, all contributed essential data to constrain the source of the earthquake and of the tsunami. In this paper we will use also the observed run-up data to put further constraints on the source and to better determine the distribution of the slip on the offshore fault. This will be done through trial-and-error forward modeling, that is by comparing inundation data calculated by means of numerical tsunami simulations in the near field to tsunami run-up heights measured during field surveys conducted by several teams and made available on the net. Major attention will be devoted to reproduce observations in the prefectures that were more affected and where run-up heights are very large (namely Iwate and Miyagi). The simulations are performed by means of the finite-difference code UBO-TSUFD, developed and maintained by the Tsunami Research Team of the University of Bologna, Italy, that can solve both the linear and non-linear versions of the shallow-water equations on nested grids and with dynamically moving shorelines.

Shallow slip amplification and enhanced tsunami hazard unravelled by dynamic simulations of mega-thrust earthquakes

PubMed Central

Murphy, S.; Scala, A.; Herrero, A.; Lorito, S.; Festa, G.; Trasatti, E.; Tonini, R.; Romano, F.; Molinari, I.; Nielsen, S.

2016-01-01

The 2011 Tohoku earthquake produced an unexpected large amount of shallow slip greatly contributing to the ensuing tsunami. How frequent are such events? How can they be efficiently modelled for tsunami hazard? Stochastic slip models, which can be computed rapidly, are used to explore the natural slip variability; however, they generally do not deal specifically with shallow slip features. We study the systematic depth-dependence of slip along a thrust fault with a number of 2D dynamic simulations using stochastic shear stress distributions and a geometry based on the cross section of the Tohoku fault. We obtain a probability density for the slip distribution, which varies both with depth, earthquake size and whether the rupture breaks the surface. We propose a method to modify stochastic slip distributions according to this dynamically-derived probability distribution. This method may be efficiently applied to produce large numbers of heterogeneous slip distributions for probabilistic tsunami hazard analysis. Using numerous M9 earthquake scenarios, we demonstrate that incorporating the dynamically-derived probability distribution does enhance the conditional probability of exceedance of maximum estimated tsunami wave heights along the Japanese coast. This technique for integrating dynamic features in stochastic models can be extended to any subduction zone and faulting style. PMID:27725733

Large Historical Earthquakes and Tsunami Hazards in the Western Mediterranean: Source Characteristics and Modelling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Harbi, Assia; Meghraoui, Mustapha; Belabbes, Samir; Maouche, Said

2010-05-01

The western Mediterranean region was the site of numerous large earthquakes in the past. Most of these earthquakes are located at the East-West trending Africa-Eurasia plate boundary and along the coastline of North Africa. The most recent recorded tsunamigenic earthquake occurred in 2003 at Zemmouri-Boumerdes (Mw 6.8) and generated ~ 2-m-high tsunami wave. The destructive wave affected the Balearic Islands and Almeria in southern Spain and Carloforte in southern Sardinia (Italy). The earthquake provided a unique opportunity to gather instrumental records of seismic waves and tide gauges in the western Mediterranean. A database that includes a historical catalogue of main events, seismic sources and related fault parameters was prepared in order to assess the tsunami hazard of this region. In addition to the analysis of the 2003 records, we study the 1790 Oran and 1856 Jijel historical tsunamigenic earthquakes (Io = IX and X, respectively) that provide detailed observations on the heights and extension of past tsunamis and damage in coastal zones. We performed the modelling of wave propagation using NAMI-DANCE code and tested different fault sources from synthetic tide gauges. We observe that the characteristics of seismic sources control the size and directivity of tsunami wave propagation on both northern and southern coasts of the western Mediterranean.

NOAA/West Coast and Alaska Tsunami Warning Center Pacific Ocean response criteria

USGS Publications Warehouse

Whitmore, P.; Benz, H.; Bolton, M.; Crawford, G.; Dengler, L.; Fryer, G.; Goltz, J.; Hansen, R.; Kryzanowski, K.; Malone, S.; Oppenheimer, D.; Petty, E.; Rogers, G.; Wilson, Jim

2008-01-01

New West Coast/Alaska Tsunami Warning Center (WCATWC) response criteria for earthquakes occurring in the Pacific basin are presented. Initial warning decisions are based on earthquake location, magnitude, depth, and - dependent on magnitude - either distance from source or precomputed threat estimates generated from tsunami models. The new criteria will help limit the geographical extent of warnings and advisories to threatened regions, and complement the new operational tsunami product suite. Changes to the previous criteria include: adding hypocentral depth dependence, reducing geographical warning extent for the lower magnitude ranges, setting special criteria for areas not well-connected to the open ocean, basing warning extent on pre-computed threat levels versus tsunami travel time for very large events, including the new advisory product, using the advisory product for far-offshore events in the lower magnitude ranges, and specifying distances from the coast for on-shore events which may be tsunamigenic. This report sets a baseline for response criteria used by the WCATWC considering its processing and observational data capabilities as well as its organizational requirements. Criteria are set for tsunamis generated by earthquakes, which are by far the main cause of tsunami generation (either directly through sea floor displacement or indirectly by triggering of slumps). As further research and development provides better tsunami source definition, observational data streams, and improved analysis tools, the criteria will continue to adjust. Future lines of research and development capable of providing operational tsunami warning centers with better tools are discussed.

Using Multi-Scenario Tsunami Modelling Results combined with Probabilistic Analyses to provide Hazard Information for the South-WestCoast of Indonesia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zosseder, K.; Post, J.; Steinmetz, T.; Wegscheider, S.; Strunz, G.

2009-04-01

Indonesia is located at one of the most active geological subduction zones in the world. Following the most recent seaquakes and their subsequent tsunamis in December 2004 and July 2006 it is expected that also in the near future tsunamis are likely to occur due to increased tectonic tensions leading to abrupt vertical seafloor alterations after a century of relative tectonic silence. To face this devastating threat tsunami hazard maps are very important as base for evacuation planning and mitigation strategies. In terms of a tsunami impact the hazard assessment is mostly covered by numerical modelling because the model results normally offer the most precise database for a hazard analysis as they include spatially distributed data and their influence to the hydraulic dynamics. Generally a model result gives a probability for the intensity distribution of a tsunami at the coast (or run up) and the spatial distribution of the maximum inundation area depending on the location and magnitude of the tsunami source used. The boundary condition of the source used for the model is mostly chosen by a worst case approach. Hence the location and magnitude which are likely to occur and which are assumed to generate the worst impact are used to predict the impact at a specific area. But for a tsunami hazard assessment covering a large coastal area, as it is demanded in the GITEWS (German Indonesian Tsunami Early Warning System) project in which the present work is embedded, this approach is not practicable because a lot of tsunami sources can cause an impact at the coast and must be considered. Thus a multi-scenario tsunami model approach is developed to provide a reliable hazard assessment covering large areas. For the Indonesian Early Warning System many tsunami scenarios were modelled by the Alfred Wegener Institute (AWI) at different probable tsunami sources and with different magnitudes along the Sunda Trench. Every modelled scenario delivers the spatial distribution of the inundation for a specific area, the wave height at coast at this area and the estimated times of arrival (ETAs) of the waves, caused by one tsunamigenic source with a specific magnitude. These parameters from the several scenarios can overlap each other along the coast and must be combined to get one comprehensive hazard assessment for all possible future tsunamis at the region under observation. The simplest way to derive the inundation probability along the coast using the multiscenario approach is to overlay all scenario inundation results and to determine how often a point on land will be significantly inundated from the various scenarios. But this does not take into account that the used tsunamigenic sources for the modeled scenarios have different likelihoods of causing a tsunami. Hence a statistical analysis of historical data and geophysical investigation results based on numerical modelling results is added to the hazard assessment, which clearly improves the significance of the hazard assessment. For this purpose the present method is developed and contains a complex logical combination of the diverse probabilities assessed like probability of occurrence for different earthquake magnitudes at different localities, probability of occurrence for a specific wave height at the coast and the probability for every point on land likely to get hit by a tsunami. The values are combined by a logical tree technique and quantified by statistical analysis of historical data and of the tsunami modelling results as mentioned before. This results in a tsunami inundation probability map covering the South West Coast of Indonesia which nevertheless shows a significant spatial diversity offering a good base for evacuation planning and mitigation strategies. Keywords: tsunami hazard assessment, tsunami modelling, probabilistic analysis, early warning

Quantifying the impacts of global disasters

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jones, L. M.; Ross, S.; Wilson, R. I.; Borrero, J. C.; Brosnan, D.; Bwarie, J. T.; Geist, E. L.; Hansen, R. A.; Johnson, L. A.; Kirby, S. H.; Long, K.; Lynett, P. J.; Miller, K. M.; Mortensen, C. E.; Perry, S. C.; Porter, K. A.; Real, C. R.; Ryan, K. J.; Thio, H. K.; Wein, A. M.; Whitmore, P.; Wood, N. J.

2012-12-01

The US Geological Survey, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, California Geological Survey, and other entities are developing a Tsunami Scenario, depicting a realistic outcome of a hypothetical but plausible large tsunami originating in the eastern Aleutian Arc, affecting the west coast of the United States, including Alaska and Hawaii. The scenario includes earth-science effects, damage and restoration of the built environment, and social and economic impacts. Like the earlier ShakeOut and ARkStorm disaster scenarios, the purpose of the Tsunami Scenario is to apply science to quantify the impacts of natural disasters in a way that can be used by decision makers in the affected sectors to reduce the potential for loss. Most natural disasters are local. A major hurricane can destroy a city or damage a long swath of coastline while mostly sparing inland areas. The largest earthquake on record caused strong shaking along 1500 km of Chile, but left the capital relatively unscathed. Previous scenarios have used the local nature of disasters to focus interaction with the user community. However, the capacity for global disasters is growing with the interdependency of the global economy. Earthquakes have disrupted global computer chip manufacturing and caused stock market downturns. Tsunamis, however, can be global in their extent and direct impact. Moreover, the vulnerability of seaports to tsunami damage can increase the global consequences. The Tsunami Scenario is trying to capture the widespread effects while maintaining the close interaction with users that has been one of the most successful features of the previous scenarios. The scenario tsunami occurs in the eastern Aleutians with a source similar to the 2011 Tohoku event. Geologic similarities support the argument that a Tohoku-like source is plausible in Alaska. It creates a major nearfield tsunami in the Aleutian arc and peninsula, a moderate tsunami in the US Pacific Northwest, large but not the maximum in Hawaii, and the largest plausible tsunami in southern California. To support the analysis of global impacts, we begin with the Ports of Los Angeles and Long Beach which account for >40% of the imports to the United States. We expand from there throughout California for the first level economic analysis. We are looking to work with Alaska and Hawaii, especially on similar economic issues in ports, over the next year and to expand the analysis to consideration of economic interactions between the regions.

Dynamic Tsunami Data Assimilation (DTDA) Based on Green's Function: Theory and Application

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Y.; Satake, K.; Gusman, A. R.; Maeda, T.

2017-12-01

Tsunami data assimilation estimates the tsunami arrival time and height at Points of Interest (PoIs) by assimilating tsunami data observed offshore into a numerical simulation, without the need of calculating initial sea surface height at the source (Maeda et al., 2015). The previous tsunami data assimilation has two main problems: one is that it requires quite large calculating time because the tsunami wavefield of the whole interested region is computed continuously; another is that it relies on dense observation network such as Dense Oceanfloor Network system for Earthquakes and Tsunamis (DONET) in Japan or Cascadia Initiative (CI) in North America (Gusman et al., 2016), which is not practical for some area. Here we propose a new approach based on Green's function to speed up the tsunami data assimilation process and to solve the problem of sparse observation: Dynamic Tsunami Data Assimilation (DTDA). If the residual between the observed and calculated tsunami height is not zero, there will be an assimilation response around the station, usually a Gaussian-distributed sea surface displacement. The Green's function Gi,j is defined as the tsunami waveform at j-th grid caused by the propagation of assimilation response at i-th station. Hence, the forecasted waveforms at PoIs are calculated as the superposition of the Green's functions. In case of sparse observation, we could use the aircraft and satellite observations. The previous assimilation approach is not practical because it costs much time to assimilate moving observation, and to compute the tsunami wavefield of the interested region. In contrast, DTDA synthesizes the waveforms quickly as long as the Green's functions are calculated in advance. We apply our method to a hypothetic earthquake off the west coast of Sumatra Island similar to the 2004 Indian Ocean earthquake. Currently there is no dense observation network in that area, making it difficult for the previous assimilation approach. We used DTDA with aircraft and satellite observation above the Indian Ocean, to forecast the tsunami in Sri Lanka, India and Thailand. It shows that DTDA provides reliable tsunami forecasting for these countries, and the tsunami early warning can be issued half an hour before the tsunami arrives to reduce the damage along the coast.

Preliminary Report Summarizes Tsunami Impacts and Lessons Learned from the September 7, 2017, M8.1 Tehuantepec Earthquake

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wilson, R. I.; Ramirez-Herrera, M. T.; Dengler, L. A.; Miller, K.; LaDuke, Y.

2017-12-01

The preliminary tsunami impacts from the September 7, 2017, M8.1 Tehuantepec Earthquake have been summarized in the following report: https://www.eeri.org/wp-content/uploads/EERI-Recon-Rpt-090717-Mexico-tsunami_fn.pdf. Although the tsunami impacts were not as significant as those from the earthquake itself (98 fatalities and 41,000 homes damaged), the following are highlights and lessons learned: The Tehuantepec earthquake was one of the largest down-slab normal faulting events ever recorded. This situation complicated the tsunami forecast since forecast methods and pre-event modeling are primarily associated with megathrust earthquakes where the most significant tsunamis are generated. Adding non-megathrust source modeling to the tsunami forecast databases of conventional warning systems should be considered. Offshore seismic and tsunami hazard analyses using past events should incorporate the potential for large earthquakes occurring along sources other than the megathrust boundary. From an engineering perspective, initial reports indicate there was only minor tsunami damage along the Mexico coast. There was damage to Marina Chiapas where floating docks overtopped their piles. Increasing pile heights could reduce the potential for damage to floating docks. Tsunami warning notifications did not get to the public in time to assist with evacuation. Streamlining the messaging in Mexico from the warning system directly to the public should be considered. And, for local events, preparedness efforts should place emphasis on responding to feeling the earthquake and not waiting to be notified. Although the U.S. tsunami warning centers were timely with their international and domestic messaging, there were some issues with how those messages were presented and interpreted. The use of a "Tsunami Threat" banner on the new main warning center website created confusion with emergency managers in the U.S. where no tsunami threat was expected to exist. Also, some U.S. states and territories in the Pacific were listed in both domestic and international messages, which caused confusion for American Samoa where these messages contained somewhat conflicting information. These issues are being addressed by the warning centers and the U.S. National Tsunami Hazard Mitigation Program.

New approaches in geological studies of tsunami deposits

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Szczucinski, Witold

2017-04-01

During the last dozen of years tsunamis have appeared to be the most disastrous natural process worldwide. The dramatic, large tsunamis on Boxing Day, 2004 in the Indian Ocean and on March 11, 2011 offshore Japan caused catastrophes listed as the worst in terms of the number of victims and the economic losses, respectively. In the aftermath, they have become a topic of high public and scientific interest. The record of past tsunamis, mainly in form of tsunami deposits, is often the only way to identify tsunami risk at a particular coast due to relatively low frequency of their occurrence. The identification of paleotsunami deposits is often difficult mainly because the tsunami deposits are represented by various sediment types, may be similar to storm deposits or altered by post-depositional processes. There is no simple universal diagnostic set of criteria that can be applied to interpret tsunami deposits with certainty. Thus, there is a need to develop new methods, which would enhance 'classical', mainly sedimentological and stratigraphic approach. The objective of the present contribution is to show recent progress and application of new approaches including geochemistry (Chagué-Goff et al. 2017) and paleogenetics (Szczuciński et al. 2016) in studies of geological impacts of recent tsunamis from various geographical regions, namely in monsoonal-tropical, temperate and polar zones. It is mainly based on own studies of coastal zones affected by 2004 Indian Ocean Tsunami in Thailand, 2011 Tohoku-oki tsunami and older paleotsunamis in Japan, catastrophic saltwater inundations at the coasts of Baltic Sea and 2000 landslide-generated tsunami in Vaigat Strait (west Greenland). The study was partly funded by Polish National Science Centre grant No. 2011/01/B/ST10/01553. Chagué-Goff C., Szczuciński W., Shinozaki T., 2017. Applications of geochemistry in tsunami research: A review. Earth-Science Reviews 165: 203-244. Szczuciński W., Pawłowska J., Lejzerowicz F., Nishimura Y., Kokociński M., Majewski W., Nakamura Y., Pawlowski J., 2016. Ancient sedimentary DNA reveals past tsunami deposits. Marine Geology 381: 29-33.

Dividing disasters in Aceh, Indonesia: separatist conflict and tsunami, human rights and humanitarianism.

PubMed

Zeccola, Paul

2011-04-01

This paper examines the interface between human rights and humanitarian action in the context of the conflict and tsunami in Aceh, Indonesia, between 1998 and 2007. It looks at the challenges international humanitarian non-governmental organisations (NGOs) faced as they engaged in human rights work in the conflict period and in conflict-related activities in the post-tsunami period. The paper argues that many large NGOs may have compromised what some would hold to be essential principles for humanitarian action because of domestic political concerns, donor restrictions and resistance among certain NGO chiefs. In contrast with the pre-tsunami period, in which NGOs worked for years amid military operations, in the post-tsunami period NGOs were decidedly apolitical, neglecting the conflict in their tsunami response--despite significant developments that permitted greater political engagement in Aceh's post-conflict transformation. The evidence suggests that NGOs are challenged in contextualising humanitarian responses and that there is a need to underscore donor flexibility and independence in humanitarian action. © 2011 The Author(s). Disasters © Overseas Development Institute, 2011.

Tohoku-Oki Earthquake Tsunami Runup and Inundation Data for Sites Around the Island of Hawaiʻi

USGS Publications Warehouse

Trusdell, Frank A.; Chadderton, Amy; Hinchliffe, Graham; Hara, Andrew; Patenge, Brent; Weber, Tom

2012-01-01

At 0546 U.t.c. March 11, 2011, a Mw 9.0 ("great") earthquake occurred near the northeast coast of Honshu Island, Japan, generating a large tsunami that devastated the east coast of Japan and impacted many far-flung coastal sites around the Pacific Basin. After the earthquake, the Pacific Tsunami Warning Center issued a tsunami alert for the State of Hawaii, followed by a tsunami-warning notice from the local State Civil Defense on March 10, 2011 (Japan is 19 hours ahead of Hawaii). After the waves passed the islands, U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) scientists from the Hawaiian Volcano Observatory (HVO) measured inundation (maximum inland distance of flooding), runup (elevation at maximum extent of inundation) and took photographs in coastal areas around the Island of Hawaiʻi. Although the damage in West Hawaiʻi is well documented, HVO's mapping revealed that East Hawaiʻi coastlines were also impacted by the tsunami. The intent of this report is to provide runup and inundation data for sites around the Island of Hawaiʻi.

Quantifying potential tsunami hazard in the Puysegur subduction zone, south of New Zealand

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hayes, G.P.; Furlong, K.P.

2010-01-01

Studies of subduction zone seismogenesis and tsunami potential, particularly of large subduction zones, have recently seen a resurgence after the great 2004 earthquake and tsunami offshore of Sumatra, yet these global studies have generally neglected the tsunami potential of small subduction zones such as the Puysegur subduction zone, south of New Zealand. Here, we study one such relatively small subduction zone by analysing the historical seismicity over the entire plate boundary region south of New Zealand, using these data to determine the seismic moment deficit of the subduction zone over the past ~100 yr. Our calculations indicate unreleased moment equivalent to a magnitude Mw 8.3 earthquake, suggesting this subduction zone has the potential to host a great, tsunamigenic event. We model this tsunami hazard and find that a tsunami caused by a great earthquake on the Puysegur subduction zone would pose threats to the coasts of southern and western South Island, New Zealand, Tasmania and southeastern Australia, nearly 2000 km distant. No claim to original US government works Geophysical Journal International ?? 2010 RAS.

A Possible Source Mechanism of the 1946 Unimak Alaska Far-Field Tsunami: Uplift of the Mid-Slope Terrace Above a Splay Fault Zone

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

von Huene, Roland; Miller, John J.; Klaeschen, Dirk; Dartnell, Peter

2016-12-01

In 1946, megathrust seismicity along the Unimak segment of the Alaska subduction zone generated the largest ever recorded Alaska/Aleutian tsunami. The tsunami severely damaged Pacific islands and coastal areas from Alaska to Antarctica. It is the charter member of "tsunami" earthquakes that produce outsized far-field tsunamis for the recorded magnitude. Its source mechanisms were unconstrained by observations because geophysical data for the Unimak segment were sparse and of low resolution. Reprocessing of legacy geophysical data reveals a deep water, high-angle reverse or splay thrust fault zone that leads megathrust slip upward to the mid-slope terrace seafloor rather than along the plate boundary toward the trench axis. Splay fault uplift elevates the outer mid-slope terrace and its inner area subsides. Multibeam bathymetry along the splay fault zone shows recent but undated seafloor disruption. The structural configuration of the nearby Semidi segment is similar to that of the Unimak segment, portending generation of a future large tsunami directed toward the US West coast.

Rapid estimate of earthquake source duration: application to tsunami warning.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Reymond, Dominique; Jamelot, Anthony; Hyvernaud, Olivier

2016-04-01

We present a method for estimating the source duration of the fault rupture, based on the high-frequency envelop of teleseismic P-Waves, inspired from the original work of (Ni et al., 2005). The main interest of the knowledge of this seismic parameter is to detect abnormal low velocity ruptures that are the characteristic of the so called 'tsunami-earthquake' (Kanamori, 1972). The validation of the results of source duration estimated by this method are compared with two other independent methods : the estimated duration obtained by the Wphase inversion (Kanamori and Rivera, 2008, Duputel et al., 2012) and the duration calculated by the SCARDEC process that determines the source time function (M. Vallée et al., 2011). The estimated source duration is also confronted to the slowness discriminant defined by Newman and Okal, 1998), that is calculated routinely for all earthquakes detected by our tsunami warning process (named PDFM2, Preliminary Determination of Focal Mechanism, (Clément and Reymond, 2014)). Concerning the point of view of operational tsunami warning, the numerical simulations of tsunami are deeply dependent on the source estimation: better is the source estimation, better will be the tsunami forecast. The source duration is not directly injected in the numerical simulations of tsunami, because the cinematic of the source is presently totally ignored (Jamelot and Reymond, 2015). But in the case of a tsunami-earthquake that occurs in the shallower part of the subduction zone, we have to consider a source in a medium of low rigidity modulus; consequently, for a given seismic moment, the source dimensions will be decreased while the slip distribution increased, like a 'compact' source (Okal, Hébert, 2007). Inversely, a rapid 'snappy' earthquake that has a poor tsunami excitation power, will be characterized by higher rigidity modulus, and will produce weaker displacement and lesser source dimensions than 'normal' earthquake. References: CLément, J. and Reymond, D. (2014). New Tsunami Forecast Tools for the French Polynesia Tsunami Warning System. Pure Appl. Geophys, 171. DUPUTEL, Z., RIVERA, L., KANAMORI, H. and HAYES, G. (2012). Wphase source inversion for moderate to large earthquakes. Geophys. J. Intl.189, 1125-1147. Kanamori, H. (1972). Mechanism of tsunami earthquakes. Phys. Earth Planet. Inter. 6, 246-259. Kanamori, H. and Rivera, L. (2008). Source inversion of W phase : speeding up seismic tsunami warning. Geophys. J. Intl. 175, 222-238. Newman, A. and Okal, E. (1998). Teleseismic estimates of radiated seismic energy : The E=M0 discriminant for tsunami earthquakes. J. Geophys. Res. 103, 26885-26898. Ni, S., H. Kanamori, and D. Helmberger (2005), Energy radiation from the Sumatra earthquake, Nature, 434, 582. Okal, E.A., and H. Hébert (2007), Far-field modeling of the 1946 Aleutian tsunami, Geophys. J. Intl., 169, 1229-1238. Vallée, M., J. Charléty, A.M.G. Ferreira, B. Delouis, and J. Vergoz, SCARDEC : a new technique for the rapid determination of seismic moment magnitude, focal mechanism and source time functions for large earthquakes using body wave deconvolution, Geophys. J. Int., 184, 338-358, 2011.

A Possible Explanation for the Absence of Large Tsunami Following the Earthquake of March 28, 2005 in the Northern Sumatra: No Major Submarine Landslide

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lee, S.-M.

2005-05-01

In just over three months, two large earthquakes (magnitudes Mw = 9.0 and 8.7), separated only by a few hundred kilometers in epicenter distance, shook the fore-arc region of the northern Sumatra. According to preliminary reports released by USGS (http://neic.usgs.gov), the seismic moment tensor solutions of the two events match quite well, suggesting that the movement of fault blocks that triggered them was similar. Yet the two earthquakes had drastically different consequence: the December 2004 earthquake triggered a catastrophic tsunami whereas the March 2005 earthquake did not. This difference raises an important question that the December 2004 tsunami was not actually triggered by the faulting itself but by submarine landslide. Earthquake-triggered submarine landslides can sometimes be overlooked as the direct cause of major tsunamis because their location often coincides with the fault rupture zones, but are known to be an important source especially along the active margins with high sedimentation rate. Scientists suspect that a similar event happened on July 17, 1998, when a magnitude 7.0 earthquake triggered by low-angle thrust fault caused a submarine slumping, which in turn generated the tsunami that devastated the coastal region in NW Papua New Guinea, killing more than 2000 human lives. If this was the case in Sumatra, it explains why a major tsunami did not occur following the March 2005 earthquake. A large amount of the sediment deposited along the continental margin by the erosion of high mountain ranges of Sumatra had already slid down the continental slope during the earthquake on December 26, 2004, and therefore not much volume of sediment was left to slide down and generate another major tsunami. The submarine topography may have also been a factor as the area around the epicenter of March 2005 earthquake has a longer extent of steep down-slope section compared to that of December 2004. In addition, the region around December 2004 earthquake has well-developed fore-arc basin which runs sub-parallel to the coastline. Multi-beam bathymetry HMS Scott immediately following the December 2004 earthquake shows evidence for a wide-spread submarine landslide. However, it is unclear at this stage if the submarine landslide was large enough to explain the far-field tsunami observations. Facilitated by humid tropic condition and steep relief, as in Papua New Guinea, the high mountains of Sumatra produce disproportionately a large amount of sediment which is being transported to the ocean. In a matter of time, the sediment piled up on the continental shelf and slope will find its way to the bottom of the seafloor, which in this case would be near the trench axis, approximately 5 km below the sea level. Thus, the March 2005 earthquake provides us an important insight that the accumulation of sediment as opposed to tectonic stress may have been a key factor in generating the tsunami of December 26, 2004.

A~probabilistic tsunami hazard assessment for Indonesia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Horspool, N.; Pranantyo, I.; Griffin, J.; Latief, H.; Natawidjaja, D. H.; Kongko, W.; Cipta, A.; Bustaman, B.; Anugrah, S. D.; Thio, H. K.

2014-05-01

Probabilistic hazard assessments are a fundamental tool for assessing the threats posed by hazards to communities and are important for underpinning evidence based decision making on risk mitigation activities. Indonesia has been the focus of intense tsunami risk mitigation efforts following the 2004 Indian Ocean Tsunami, but this has been largely concentrated on the Sunda Arc, with little attention to other tsunami prone areas of the country such as eastern Indonesia. We present the first nationally consistent Probabilistic Tsunami Hazard Assessment (PTHA) for Indonesia. This assessment produces time independent forecasts of tsunami hazard at the coast from tsunami generated by local, regional and distant earthquake sources. The methodology is based on the established monte-carlo approach to probabilistic seismic hazard assessment (PSHA) and has been adapted to tsunami. We account for sources of epistemic and aleatory uncertainty in the analysis through the use of logic trees and through sampling probability density functions. For short return periods (100 years) the highest tsunami hazard is the west coast of Sumatra, south coast of Java and the north coast of Papua. For longer return periods (500-2500 years), the tsunami hazard is highest along the Sunda Arc, reflecting larger maximum magnitudes along the Sunda Arc. The annual probability of experiencing a tsunami with a height at the coast of > 0.5 m is greater than 10% for Sumatra, Java, the Sunda Islands (Bali, Lombok, Flores, Sumba) and north Papua. The annual probability of experiencing a tsunami with a height of >3.0 m, which would cause significant inundation and fatalities, is 1-10% in Sumatra, Java, Bali, Lombok and north Papua, and 0.1-1% for north Sulawesi, Seram and Flores. The results of this national scale hazard assessment provide evidence for disaster managers to prioritise regions for risk mitigation activities and/or more detailed hazard or risk assessment.

A Coupled Earthquake-Tsunami Simulation Framework Applied to the Sumatra 2004 Event

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vater, Stefan; Bader, Michael; Behrens, Jörn; van Dinther, Ylona; Gabriel, Alice-Agnes; Madden, Elizabeth H.; Ulrich, Thomas; Uphoff, Carsten; Wollherr, Stephanie; van Zelst, Iris

2017-04-01

Large earthquakes along subduction zone interfaces have generated destructive tsunamis near Chile in 1960, Sumatra in 2004, and northeast Japan in 2011. In order to better understand these extreme events, we have developed tools for physics-based, coupled earthquake-tsunami simulations. This simulation framework is applied to the 2004 Indian Ocean M 9.1-9.3 earthquake and tsunami, a devastating event that resulted in the loss of more than 230,000 lives. The earthquake rupture simulation is performed using an ADER discontinuous Galerkin discretization on an unstructured tetrahedral mesh with the software SeisSol. Advantages of this approach include accurate representation of complex fault and sea floor geometries and a parallelized and efficient workflow in high-performance computing environments. Accurate and efficient representation of the tsunami evolution and inundation at the coast is achieved with an adaptive mesh discretizing the shallow water equations with a second-order Runge-Kutta discontinuous Galerkin (RKDG) scheme. With the application of the framework to this historic event, we aim to better understand the involved mechanisms between the dynamic earthquake within the earth's crust, the resulting tsunami wave within the ocean, and the final coastal inundation process. Earthquake model results are constrained by GPS surface displacements and tsunami model results are compared with buoy and inundation data. This research is part of the ASCETE Project, "Advanced Simulation of Coupled Earthquake and Tsunami Events", funded by the Volkswagen Foundation.

Numerical simulation of the 2002 Northern Rhodes Slide (Greece) and evaluation of the generated tsunami

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zaniboni, Filippo; Armigliato, Alberto; Pagnoni, Gianluca; Tinti, Stefano

2013-04-01

Small landslides are very common along the submarine margins, due to steep slopes and continuous material deposition that increment mass instability and supply collapse occurrences, even without earthquake triggering. This kind of events can have relevant consequences when occurring close to the coast, because they are characterized by sudden change of velocity and relevant speed achievement, reflecting into high tsunamigenic potential. This is the case for example of the slide of Rhodes Island (Greece), named Northern Rhodes Slide (NRS), where unusual 3-4 m waves were registered on 24 March 2002, provoking some damage in the coastal stretch of the city of Rhodes (Papadopoulos et al., 2007). The event was not associated with earthquake occurrence, and eyewitnesses supported the hypothesis of a non-seismic source for the tsunami, placed 1 km offshore. Subsequent marine geophysical surveys (Sakellariou et al., 2002) evidenced the presence of several detachment niches at about 300-400 m depth along the northern steep slope, one of which can be considered responsible of the observed tsunami, fitting with the previously mentioned supposition. In this work, that is carried out in the frame of the European funded project NearToWarn, we evaluated the tsunami effects due to the NRS by means of numerical modelling: after having reconstructed the sliding body basing on morphological assumptions (obtaining an esteemed volume of 33 million m3), we simulated the sliding motion through the in-house built code UBO-BLOCK1, adopting a Lagrangian approach and splitting the sliding mass into a "chain" of interacting blocks. This provides the complete dynamics of the landslide, including the shape changes that relevantly influence the tsunami generation. After the application of an intermediate code, accounting for the slide impulse filtering through the water depth, the tsunami propagation in the sea around the island of Rhodes and up to near coasts of Turkey was simulated via the code UBO-TSUFD: this solves numerically the Navier-Stokes equation in the shallow water approximation, adopting a finite difference technique. It was then possible to estimate the most affected coastal stretches and to assess the effects of the NRS generated tsunami, comparing the computed wave heights with the observations. Papadopoulos G.A., Daskalaki E., Fokaefs A. (2007) Tsunamis generated by coastal and submarine landslides in the Mediterranean Sea. In: Lykousis V., Sakellariou D., Locat J. (eds.), Submarine Mass Movements and their Consequences, 415-422, Springer. Sakellariou D., Lykousis V., Rousakis G., Georgiou P. (2002). Slope failure and associated coastal erosion in tectonically active areas: The coastal zone of Rhodes city (Rhodos island) Greece. In: A. Yilmaz (ed.): Oceanography of Eastern Mediterranean and Black Sea, 978-985, Proceedings of the 2nd International Conference Oct. 13-16, TUBITAK Publ., Ankara, Turkey.

Assessment of tsunami resilience of Haydarpaşa Port in the Sea of Marmara by high-resolution numerical modeling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Aytore, Betul; Yalciner, Ahmet Cevdet; Zaytsev, Andrey; Cankaya, Zeynep Ceren; Suzen, Mehmet Lütfi

2016-08-01

Turkey is highly prone to earthquakes because of active fault zones in the region. The Marmara region located at the western extension of the North Anatolian Fault Zone (NAFZ) is one of the most tectonically active zones in Turkey. Numerous catastrophic events such as earthquakes or earthquake/landslide-induced tsunamis have occurred in the Marmara Sea basin. According to studies on the past tsunami records, the Marmara coasts have been hit by 35 different tsunami events in the last 2000 years. The recent occurrences of catastrophic tsunamis in the world's oceans have also raised awareness about tsunamis that might take place around the Marmara coasts. Similarly, comprehensive studies on tsunamis, such as preparation of tsunami databases, tsunami hazard analysis and assessments, risk evaluations for the potential tsunami-prone regions, and establishing warning systems have accelerated. However, a complete tsunami inundation analysis in high resolution will provide a better understanding of the effects of tsunamis on a specific critical structure located in the Marmara Sea. Ports are one of those critical structures that are susceptible to marine disasters. Resilience of ports and harbors against tsunamis are essential for proper, efficient, and successful rescue operations to reduce loss of life and property. Considering this, high-resolution simulations have been carried out in the Marmara Sea by focusing on Haydarpaşa Port of the megacity Istanbul. In the first stage of simulations, the most critical tsunami sources possibly effective for Haydarpaşa Port were inputted, and the computed tsunami parameters at the port were compared to determine the most critical tsunami scenario. In the second stage of simulations, the nested domains from 90 m gird size to 10 m grid size (in the port region) were used, and the most critical tsunami scenario was modeled. In the third stage of simulations, the topography of the port and its regions were used in the two nested domains in 3-m and 1-m resolutions and the water elevations computed from the previous simulations were inputted from the border of the large domain. A tsunami numerical code, NAMI DANCE, was used in the simulations. The tsunami parameters in the highest resolution were computed in and around the port. The effect of the data resolution on the computed results has been presented. The performance of the port structures and possible effects of tsunami on port operations have been discussed. Since the harbor protection structures have not been designed to withstand tsunamis, the breakwaters' stability becomes one of the major concerns for less agitation and inundation under tsunami in Haydarpaşa Port for resilience. The flow depth, momentum fluxes, and current pattern are the other concerns that cause unexpected circulations and uncontrolled movements of objects on land and vessels in the sea.

Broadband Analysis of the Energetics of Earthquakes and Tsunamis in the Sunda Forearc from 1987-2012

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Choy, G. L.; Kirby, S. H.; Hayes, G. P.

2013-12-01

In the eighteen years before the 2004 Sumatra Mw 9.1 earthquake, the forearc off Sumatra experienced only one large (Mw > 7.0) thrust event and experienced no earthquakes that generated measurable tsunami wave heights. In the subsequent eight years, twelve large thrust earthquakes occurred of which half generated measurable tsunamis. The number of broadband earthquakes (those events with Mw > 5.5 for which broadband teleseismic waveforms have sufficient signal to compute depths, focal mechanisms, moments and radiated energies) jumped six fold after 2004. The progression of tsunami earthquakes, as well as the profuse increase in broadband activity, strongly suggests regional stress adjustments following the Sumatra 2004 megathrust earthquake. Broadband source parameters, published routinely in the Source Parameters (SOPAR) database of the USGS's NEIC (National Earthquake Information Center), have provided the most accurate depths and locations of big earthquakes since the implementation of modern digital seismographic networks. Moreover, radiated energy and seismic moment (also found in SOPAR) are related to apparent stress which is a measure of fault maturity. In mapping apparent stress as a function of depth and focal mechanism, we find that about 12% of broadband thrust earthquakes in the subduction zone are unequivocally above or below the slab interface. Apparent stresses of upper-plate events are associated with failure on mature splay faults, some of which generated measurable tsunamis. One unconventional source for local wave heights was a large intraslab earthquake. High-energy upper-plate events, which are dominant in the Aceh Basin, are associated with immature faults, which may explain why the region was bypassed by significant rupture during the 2004 Sumatra earthquake. The majority of broadband earthquakes are non-randomly concentrated under the outer-arc high. They appear to delineate the periphery of the contiguous rupture zones of large earthquakes. A not uncommon occurrence at the outer-arc high is that of a large (Mw >7.0) earthquake followed by another event, also of large magnitude, in very close spatial (<50 km) proximity within a short time (days to months). The physical separation between these events provides constraints on the nature of barriers to rupture propagation. Some of the glaring disparities in seismic damage and tsunami excitation for earthquakes with the same magnitude can be attributed to differences between rupture properties landward and seaward of the outer-arc high. Although most of the studied broadband earthquakes occurred in the wake of the Sumatra 2004 megathrust event, they illuminate tectonic features that exert a strong influence on rupture growth and extent. The application of broadband analysis to other island arcs will complement current criteria for evaluating seismic and tsunami potential

Village Level Tsunami Threat Maps for Tamil Nadu, SE Coast of India: Numerical Modeling Technique

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

MP, J.; Kulangara Madham Subrahmanian, D.; V, R. M.

2014-12-01

The Indian Ocean tsunami (IOT) devastated several countries of North Indian Ocean. India is one of the worst affected countries after Indonesia and Sri Lanka. In India, Tamil Nadu suffered maximum with fatalities exceeding 8,000 people. Historical records show that tsunami has invaded the shores of Tamil Nadu in the past and has made people realize that the tsunami threat looms over Tamil Nadu and it is necessary to evolve strategies for tsunami threat management. The IOT has brought to light that tsunami inundation and runup varied within short distances and for the disaster management for tsunami, large scale maps showing areas that are likely to be affected by future tsunami are identified. Therefore threat assessment for six villages including Mamallapuram (also called Mahabalipuram) which is famous for its rock-cut temples, from the northern part of Tamil Nadu state of India has been carried out and threat maps categorizing the coast into areas of different degree of threat are prepared. The threat was assessed by numerical modeling using TUNAMI N2 code considering different tsunamigenic sources along the Andaman - Sumatra trench. While GEBCO and C-Map data was used for bathymetry and for land elevation data was generated by RTK - GPS survey for a distance of 1 km from shore and SRTM for the inland areas. The model results show that in addition to the Sumatra source which generated the IOT in 2004, earthquakes originating in Car Nicobar and North Andaman can inflict more damage. The North Andaman source can generate a massive tsunami and an earthquake of magnitude more than Mw 9 can not only affect Tamil Nadu but also entire south east coast of India. The runup water level is used to demarcate the tsunami threat zones in the villages using GIS.

Geological Impacts and Sedimentary Record of the February 27, 2010, Chile Tsunami-La Trinchera to Concepcion

USGS Publications Warehouse

Morton, Robert A.; Buckley, Mark L.; Gelfenbaum, Guy; Richmond, Bruce M.; Cecioni, Adriano; Artal, Osvaldo; Hoffmann, Constanza; Perez, Felipe

2010-01-01

The February 27, 2010, Chilean tsunami substantially altered the coastal landscape and left a permanent depositional record that may be preserved at many locales along the central coast of Chile. From April 24 to May 2, 2010, a team of U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) and Chilean scientists examined the geological impacts of the tsunami at five sites along a 200-km segment of coast centered on the earthquake epicenter. Significant observations include: (1) substantial tsunami-induced erosion and deposition (+/- 1 m) on the coastal plain; (2) erosion from return flow, inundation scour around the bases of trees, and widespread planation of the land surface; (3) tsunami sand deposits at all sites that extended to near the limit of inundation except at one site; (4) evidence of multiple strong onshore waves that arrived at different times and from different directions; (5) vegetation height and density controlled the thickness of tsunami deposits at one site, (6) the abundance of layers of plane-parallel stratification in some deposits and the presence of large bedforms at one site indicated at least some of the sediment was transported as bed load and not as suspended load; (7) shoreward transport of mud boulders and rock cobbles where they were available; and (8) the maximum tsunami inundation distance (2.35 km) was up an alluvial valley. Most of the tsunami deposits were less than 25 cm thick, which is consistent with tsunami-deposit thicknesses found elsewhere (for example, Papua New Guinea, Peru, Sumatra, Sri Lanka). Exceptions were the thick tsunami deposits near the mouths of Rio Huenchullami (La Trinchera) and Rio Maule (Constitucion), where the sediment supply was abundant. The substantial vertical erosion of the coastal plain at Constitucion

Resolution testing and limitations of geodetic and tsunami datasets for finite fault inversions along subduction zones

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Williamson, A.; Newman, A. V.

2017-12-01

Finite fault inversions utilizing multiple datasets have become commonplace for large earthquakes pending data availability. The mixture of geodetic datasets such as Global Navigational Satellite Systems (GNSS) and InSAR, seismic waveforms, and when applicable, tsunami waveforms from Deep-Ocean Assessment and Reporting of Tsunami (DART) gauges, provide slightly different observations that when incorporated together lead to a more robust model of fault slip distribution. The merging of different datasets is of particular importance along subduction zones where direct observations of seafloor deformation over the rupture area are extremely limited. Instead, instrumentation measures related ground motion from tens to hundreds of kilometers away. The distance from the event and dataset type can lead to a variable degree of resolution, affecting the ability to accurately model the spatial distribution of slip. This study analyzes the spatial resolution attained individually from geodetic and tsunami datasets as well as in a combined dataset. We constrain the importance of distance between estimated parameters and observed data and how that varies between land-based and open ocean datasets. Analysis focuses on accurately scaled subduction zone synthetic models as well as analysis of the relationship between slip and data in recent large subduction zone earthquakes. This study shows that seafloor deformation sensitive datasets, like open-ocean tsunami waveforms or seafloor geodetic instrumentation, can provide unique offshore resolution for understanding most large and particularly tsunamigenic megathrust earthquake activity. In most environments, we simply lack the capability to resolve static displacements using land-based geodetic observations.

Disturbance of Shallow Marine Soft-Bottom Environments and Megabenthos Assemblages by a Huge Tsunami Induced by the 2011 M9.0 Tohoku-Oki Earthquake

PubMed Central

Seike, Koji; Shirai, Kotaro; Kogure, Yukihisa

2013-01-01

Huge tsunami waves associated with megathrust earthquakes have a severe impact on shallow marine ecosystems. We investigated the impact of a tsunami generated by the 2011 M9.0 Tohoku-Oki earthquake on the seafloor and large benthic animals in muddy and sandy ria coasts (Otsuchi and Funakoshi bays) in northeastern Japan. We conducted underwater field surveys using scuba equipment in water depths of <20 m before the tsunami (September 2010) and after the tsunami (September 2011 and September 2012). During the study period, episodic changes in topography and grain-size composition occurred on the seafloor of the study area. Megabenthos sampling revealed a distinct pattern of distribution succession for each benthic species. For example, the protobranch bivalve Yoldia notabilis (Bivalvia: Nuculanidae) and the heterodont bivalve Felaniella usta (Bivalvia: Ungulinidae) disappeared after the tsunami event, whereas the distribution of the venus clam Gomphina melanaegis (Bivalvia: Veneridae) remained unchanged. In addition, the patterns of succession for a single species, such as the giant button top shell Umbonium costatum (Gastropoda: Trochidae) and the heart urchin Echinocardium cordatum (Echinoidea: Loveniidae), varied between the two bays studied. Our data also show that reestablishment of some benthic animal populations began within 18 months of the tsunami disturbance. PMID:23762365

Disturbance of shallow marine soft-bottom environments and megabenthos assemblages by a huge tsunami induced by the 2011 M9.0 Tohoku-Oki earthquake.

PubMed

Seike, Koji; Shirai, Kotaro; Kogure, Yukihisa

2013-01-01

Huge tsunami waves associated with megathrust earthquakes have a severe impact on shallow marine ecosystems. We investigated the impact of a tsunami generated by the 2011 M9.0 Tohoku-Oki earthquake on the seafloor and large benthic animals in muddy and sandy ria coasts (Otsuchi and Funakoshi bays) in northeastern Japan. We conducted underwater field surveys using scuba equipment in water depths of <20 m before the tsunami (September 2010) and after the tsunami (September 2011 and September 2012). During the study period, episodic changes in topography and grain-size composition occurred on the seafloor of the study area. Megabenthos sampling revealed a distinct pattern of distribution succession for each benthic species. For example, the protobranch bivalve Yoldia notabilis (Bivalvia: Nuculanidae) and the heterodont bivalve Felaniella usta (Bivalvia: Ungulinidae) disappeared after the tsunami event, whereas the distribution of the venus clam Gomphina melanaegis (Bivalvia: Veneridae) remained unchanged. In addition, the patterns of succession for a single species, such as the giant button top shell Umbonium costatum (Gastropoda: Trochidae) and the heart urchin Echinocardium cordatum (Echinoidea: Loveniidae), varied between the two bays studied. Our data also show that reestablishment of some benthic animal populations began within 18 months of the tsunami disturbance.

Tsunami Simulation Method Assimilating Ocean Bottom Pressure Data Near a Tsunami Source Region

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tanioka, Yuichiro

2018-02-01

A new method was developed to reproduce the tsunami height distribution in and around the source area, at a certain time, from a large number of ocean bottom pressure sensors, without information on an earthquake source. A dense cabled observation network called S-NET, which consists of 150 ocean bottom pressure sensors, was installed recently along a wide portion of the seafloor off Kanto, Tohoku, and Hokkaido in Japan. However, in the source area, the ocean bottom pressure sensors cannot observe directly an initial ocean surface displacement. Therefore, we developed the new method. The method was tested and functioned well for a synthetic tsunami from a simple rectangular fault with an ocean bottom pressure sensor network using 10 arc-min, or 20 km, intervals. For a test case that is more realistic, ocean bottom pressure sensors with 15 arc-min intervals along the north-south direction and sensors with 30 arc-min intervals along the east-west direction were used. In the test case, the method also functioned well enough to reproduce the tsunami height field in general. These results indicated that the method could be used for tsunami early warning by estimating the tsunami height field just after a great earthquake without the need for earthquake source information.

Operational Tsunami Modelling with TsunAWI for the German-Indonesian Tsunami Early Warning System: Recent Developments

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rakowsky, N.; Harig, S.; Androsov, A.; Fuchs, A.; Immerz, A.; Schröter, J.; Hiller, W.

2012-04-01

Starting in 2005, the GITEWS project (German-Indonesian Tsunami Early Warning System) established from scratch a fully operational tsunami warning system at BMKG in Jakarta. Numerical simulations of prototypic tsunami scenarios play a decisive role in a priori risk assessment for coastal regions and in the early warning process itself. Repositories with currently 3470 regional tsunami scenarios for GITEWS and 1780 Indian Ocean wide scenarios in support of Indonesia as a Regional Tsunami Service Provider (RTSP) were computed with the non-linear shallow water modell TsunAWI. It is based on a finite element discretisation, employs unstructured grids with high resolution along the coast and includes inundation. This contribution gives an overview on the model itself, the enhancement of the model physics, and the experiences gained during the process of establishing an operational code suited for thousands of model runs. Technical aspects like computation time, disk space needed for each scenario in the repository, or post processing techniques have a much larger impact than they had in the beginning when TsunAWI started as a research code. Of course, careful testing on artificial benchmarks and real events remains essential, but furthermore, quality control for the large number of scenarios becomes an important issue.

Modelling the tsunami threat to Sydney Harbour, Australia, with comparisons to historical events.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wilson, O.; Power, H.

2016-12-01

Sydney Harbour is an iconic location with a dense population and low-lying development. On the east coast of Australia, facing the Pacific Ocean it is exposed to several tsunamigenic trenches. To date, this is the most detailed assessment of the potential for earthquake-generated tsunami impact on Sydney Harbour. The tsunami wave trains modelled include tsunami modelled from earthquakes of magnitude 7.5, 8.0, 8.5 and 9.0 MW from the Puysegur and New Hebrides trenches. Historical events from Chile in 1960 and Japan in 2011 are also modelled for comparison. Using the hydrodynamic model ANUGA, results show that the events modelled have the potential to cause high current speeds, hazardous waves and rapid changes in water level. These effects are most dramatic at pinch points such as Spit Bridge and Anzac Bridge, particularly with regard to current speeds. Large waves are shown to be a particular threat at the mouth of the harbour, where the bathymetry causes the tsunami wave train to shoal. Inundation is less of a hazard for the tsunami events modlled, although some inundation is evident at several low-lying embayments in the south of the harbour. These results will provide an evidence base for tsunami threat emergency management.

Inter-model analysis of tsunami-induced coastal currents

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lynett, Patrick J.; Gately, Kara; Wilson, Rick; Montoya, Luis; Arcas, Diego; Aytore, Betul; Bai, Yefei; Bricker, Jeremy D.; Castro, Manuel J.; Cheung, Kwok Fai; David, C. Gabriel; Dogan, Gozde Guney; Escalante, Cipriano; González-Vida, José Manuel; Grilli, Stephan T.; Heitmann, Troy W.; Horrillo, Juan; Kânoğlu, Utku; Kian, Rozita; Kirby, James T.; Li, Wenwen; Macías, Jorge; Nicolsky, Dmitry J.; Ortega, Sergio; Pampell-Manis, Alyssa; Park, Yong Sung; Roeber, Volker; Sharghivand, Naeimeh; Shelby, Michael; Shi, Fengyan; Tehranirad, Babak; Tolkova, Elena; Thio, Hong Kie; Velioğlu, Deniz; Yalçıner, Ahmet Cevdet; Yamazaki, Yoshiki; Zaytsev, Andrey; Zhang, Y. J.

2017-06-01

To help produce accurate and consistent maritime hazard products, the National Tsunami Hazard Mitigation Program organized a benchmarking workshop to evaluate the numerical modeling of tsunami currents. Thirteen teams of international researchers, using a set of tsunami models currently utilized for hazard mitigation studies, presented results for a series of benchmarking problems; these results are summarized in this paper. Comparisons focus on physical situations where the currents are shear and separation driven, and are thus de-coupled from the incident tsunami waveform. In general, we find that models of increasing physical complexity provide better accuracy, and that low-order three-dimensional models are superior to high-order two-dimensional models. Inside separation zones and in areas strongly affected by eddies, the magnitude of both model-data errors and inter-model differences can be the same as the magnitude of the mean flow. Thus, we make arguments for the need of an ensemble modeling approach for areas affected by large-scale turbulent eddies, where deterministic simulation may be misleading. As a result of the analyses presented herein, we expect that tsunami modelers now have a better awareness of their ability to accurately capture the physics of tsunami currents, and therefore a better understanding of how to use these simulation tools for hazard assessment and mitigation efforts.

A review of mechanisms and modelling procedures for landslide tsunamis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Løvholt, Finn; Harbitz, Carl B.; Glimsdal, Sylfest

2017-04-01

Landslides, including volcano flank collapses or volcanically induced flows, constitute the second-most important cause of tsunamis after earthquakes. Compared to earthquakes, landslides are more diverse with respect to how they generation tsunamis. Here, we give an overview over the main tsunami generation mechanisms for landslide tsunamis. In the presentation, a mix of results using analytical models, numerical models, laboratory experiments, and case studies are used to illustrate the diversity, but also to point out some common characteristics. Different numerical modelling techniques for the landslide evolution, and the tsunami generation and propagation, as well as the effect of frequency dispersion, are also briefly discussed. Basic tsunami generation mechanisms for different types of landslides, including large submarine translational landslide, to impulsive submarine slumps, and violent subaerial landslides and volcano flank collapses, are reviewed. The importance of the landslide kinematics is given attention, including the interplay between landslide acceleration, landslide velocity to depth ratio (Froude number) and dimensions. Using numerical simulations, we demonstrate how landslide deformation and retrogressive failure development influence tsunamigenesis. Generation mechanisms for subaerial landslides, are reviewed by means of scaling relations from laboratory experiments and numerical modelling. Finally, it is demonstrated how the different degree of complexity in the landslide tsunamigenesis needs to be reflected by increased sophistication in numerical models.

The 2006 July 17 Java (Indonesia) tsunami from satellite imagery and numerical modelling: a single or complex source?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hébert, H.; Burg, P.-E.; Binet, R.; Lavigne, F.; Allgeyer, S.; Schindelé, F.

2012-12-01

The Mw 7.8 2006 July 17 earthquake off the southern coast of Java, Indonesia, has been responsible for a very large tsunami causing more than 700 casualties. The tsunami has been observed on at least 200 km of coastline in the region of Pangandaran (West Java), with run-up heights from 5 to more than 20 m. Such a large tsunami, with respect to the source magnitude, has been attributed to the slow character of the seismic rupture, defining the event as a so-called tsunami earthquake, but it has also been suggested that the largest run-up heights are actually the result of a second local landslide source. Here we test whether a single slow earthquake source can explain the tsunami run-up, using a combination of new detailed data in the region of the largest run-ups and comparison with modelled run-ups for a range of plausible earthquake source models. Using high-resolution satellite imagery (SPOT 5 and Quickbird), the coastal impact of the tsunami is refined in the surroundings of the high-security Permisan prison on Nusa Kambangan island, where 20 m run-up had been recorded directly after the event. These data confirm the extreme inundation lengths close to the prison, and extend the area of maximum impact further along the Nusa Kambangan island (about 20 km of shoreline), where inundation lengths reach several hundreds of metres, suggesting run-up as high as 10-15 m. Tsunami modelling has been conducted in detail for the high run-up Permisan area (Nusa Kambangan) and the PLTU power plant about 25 km eastwards, where run-up reached only 4-6 m and a video recording of the tsunami arrival is available. For the Permisan prison a high-resolution DEM was built from stereoscopic satellite imagery. The regular basin of the PLTU plant was designed using photographs and direct observations. For the earthquake's mechanism, both static (infinite) and finite (kinematic) ruptures are investigated using two published source models. The models account rather well for the sea level variation at PLTU, showing a better agreement in arrival times with the finite rupture, and predict the Permisan area to be one of the regions where tsunami waves would have focussed. However, the earthquake models that match the data at PTLU do not predict that the wave heights at Permisan are an overall maximum, and do not predict there more than 10 m of the 21 observed. Hence, our results confirm that an additional localized tsunami source off Nusa Kambangan island, such as a submarine landslide, may have increased the tsunami impact for the Permisan site. This reinforces the importance for hazard assessment of further mapping and understanding local potential for submarine sliding, as a tsunami source added to usual earthquake sources.

Pacific Basin tsunami hazards associated with mass flows in the Aleutian arc of Alaska

USGS Publications Warehouse

Waythomas, Christopher F.; Watts, Philip; Shi, Fengyan; Kirby, James T.

2009-01-01

We analyze mass-flow tsunami generation for selected areas within the Aleutian arc of Alaska using results from numerical simulation of hypothetical but plausible mass-flow sources such as submarine landslides and volcanic debris avalanches. The Aleutian arc consists of a chain of volcanic mountains, volcanic islands, and submarine canyons, surrounded by a low-relief continental shelf above about 1000–2000 m water depth. Parts of the arc are fragmented into a series of fault-bounded blocks, tens to hundreds of kilometers in length, and separated from one another by distinctive fault-controlled canyons that are roughly normal to the arc axis. The canyons are natural regions for the accumulation and conveyance of sediment derived from glacial and volcanic processes. The volcanic islands in the region include a number of historically active volcanoes and some possess geological evidence for large-scale sector collapse into the sea. Large scale mass-flow deposits have not been mapped on the seafloor south of the Aleutian Islands, in part because most of the area has never been examined at the resolution required to identify such features, and in part because of the complex nature of erosional and depositional processes. Extensive submarine landslide deposits and debris flows are known on the north side of the arc and are common in similar settings elsewhere and thus they likely exist on the trench slope south of the Aleutian Islands. Because the Aleutian arc is surrounded by deep, open ocean, mass flows of unconsolidated debris that originate either as submarine landslides or as volcanic debris avalanches entering the sea may be potential tsunami sources. To test this hypothesis we present a series of numerical simulations of submarine mass-flow initiated tsunamis from eight different source areas. We consider four submarine mass flows originating in submarine canyons and four flows that evolve from submarine landslides on the trench slope. The flows have lengths that range from 40 to 80 km, maximum thicknesses of 400–800 m, and maximum widths of 10–40 km. We also evaluate tsunami generation by volcanic debris avalanches associated with flank collapse, at four locations (Makushin, Cleveland, Seguam and Yunaska SW volcanoes), which represent large to moderate sized events in this region. We calculate tsunami sources using the numerical model TOPICS and simulate wave propagation across the Pacific using a spherical Boussinesq model, which is a modified version of the public domain code FUNWAVE. Our numerical simulations indicate that geologically plausible mass flows originating in the North Pacific near the Aleutian Islands can indeed generate large local tsunamis as well as large transoceanic tsunamis. These waves may be several meters in elevation at distal locations, such as Japan, Hawaii, and along the North and South American coastlines where they would constitute significant hazards.

A rapid estimation of tsunami run-up based on finite fault models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Campos, J.; Fuentes, M. A.; Hayes, G. P.; Barrientos, S. E.; Riquelme, S.

2014-12-01

Many efforts have been made to estimate the maximum run-up height of tsunamis associated with large earthquakes. This is a difficult task, because of the time it takes to construct a tsunami model using real time data from the source. It is possible to construct a database of potential seismic sources and their corresponding tsunami a priori. However, such models are generally based on uniform slip distributions and thus oversimplify our knowledge of the earthquake source. Instead, we can use finite fault models of earthquakes to give a more accurate prediction of the tsunami run-up. Here we show how to accurately predict tsunami run-up from any seismic source model using an analytic solution found by Fuentes et al, 2013 that was especially calculated for zones with a very well defined strike, i.e, Chile, Japan, Alaska, etc. The main idea of this work is to produce a tool for emergency response, trading off accuracy for quickness. Our solutions for three large earthquakes are promising. Here we compute models of the run-up for the 2010 Mw 8.8 Maule Earthquake, the 2011 Mw 9.0 Tohoku Earthquake, and the recent 2014 Mw 8.2 Iquique Earthquake. Our maximum rup-up predictions are consistent with measurements made inland after each event, with a peak of 15 to 20 m for Maule, 40 m for Tohoku, and 2,1 m for the Iquique earthquake. Considering recent advances made in the analysis of real time GPS data and the ability to rapidly resolve the finiteness of a large earthquake close to existing GPS networks, it will be possible in the near future to perform these calculations within the first five minutes after the occurrence of any such event. Such calculations will thus provide more accurate run-up information than is otherwise available from existing uniform-slip seismic source databases.

New Tsunami Response, Mitigation, and Recovery Planning "Playbooks" for California (USA) Maritime Communities

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wilson, R. I.; Lynett, P. J.; Miller, K.; Eskijian, M.; Dengler, L. A.; Ayca, A.; Keen, A.; Admire, A. R.; Siegel, J.; Johnson, L. A.; Curtis, E.; Hornick, M.

2015-12-01

The 2010 Chile and 2011 Japan tsunamis both struck the California coast offering valuable experience and raised a number of significant issues for harbor masters, port captains, and other maritime entities. There was a general call for more planning products to help guide maritime communities in their tsunami response, mitigation, and recovery activities. The State of California is working with the U.S. Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA), the U.S. National Tsunami Hazard Mitigation Program (NTHMP), and other tsunami experts to provide communities with new tsunami planning tools to address these issues: Response Playbooks and plans have been developed for ports and harbors identifying potential tsunami current hazards and related damage for various size events. Maps have been generated showing minor, moderate, and severe damage levels that have been linked to current velocity thresholds of 3, 6, and 9 knots, respectively. Knowing this information allows harbor personnel to move ships or strengthen infrastructure prior to the arrival of distant source tsunamis. Damage probability tools and mitigation plans have been created to help reduce tsunami damage by evaluating the survivability of small and large vessels in harbors and ports. These results were compared to the actual damage assessments performed in California and Japan following the 2011 Japanese tsunami. Fragility curves were developed based on current velocity and direction to help harbor and port officials upgrade docks, piles, and related structures. Guidance documents are being generated to help in the development of both local and statewide recovery plans. Additional tools, like post-tsunami sediment and debris movement models, will allow harbors and ports to better understand if and where recovery issues are most likely to occur. Streamlining the regulatory and environmental review process is also a goal of the guidance. These maritime products and procedures are being integrated into guidance through the NTHMP to help other U.S. states/territories/commonwealths develop their own tsunami planning tools. This will lead to more accurate, consistent, and cost-effective tsunami planning strategies within the U.S.

Spatial Distribution and Sedimentary Facies of the 2007 Solomon Islands Tsunami Deposits

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nakamura, Y.; Nishimura, Y.; Woodward, S.

2007-12-01

We conducted a field survey of the extent of damage, crustal deformation, and onshore deposits caused by 2007 Solomon Islands tsunami in Ghizo and adjacent islands in the western Solomon Islands, from 13th to 18th April, 2007. Our survey team was comprised of six Japanese and one American researcher. Three of us, the authors, mainly investigated tsunami deposits in three villages (Titiana, Suva, and Pailongge) in southern Ghizo Island. One member of our team re-investigated the deposits in June 2007. The tsunami generated sheet-like deposits of coral beach sand on the flat plain in Titiana. Beside the sea coast, the tsunami wave eroded ground surfaces and formed small scarps at 30 m from the sea. Just interior of the scarps, tsunami deposits accumulated up to 9 cm in thickness. The thickness decreased with distance from the sea and was also affected by microtopography. No sandy tsunami deposits were observed on the inland area between 170 m and 210 m from the sea. The upper boundary of inundation was recognized at about 210 m from the sea because of accumulation of driftwood and floating debris. In Suva and Pailongge, the outline of sand-sheet distribution is the same as it in Titiana. The tsunami had a maximum thickness of 10 cm and two or three sand layers are separated by thin humic sand layers. These humic layers were likely supplied from hillslopes eroded by the tsunami and transported by return-flows. These successions of deposits suggest that tsunami waves inundated at least two times. This is consistent with the number of large waves told by eyewitnesses. In the Solomon Islands, the plentiful rainfall causes erosion and resedimentation of tsunami deposits. Furthermore, the sedimentary structures will be destroyed by chemical weathering in warm and moist environment, and bioturbation by plants, animals, and human activities. The sedimentary structures had been preserved till the end of June 2007, but had already been penetrated by plant roots and sandpipes of crabs. We believe that the knowledge of weathering process of tsunami deposits is important for interpretation of sedimentary structures of paleo-tsunami deposits.

ASTARTE: Assessment Strategy and Risk Reduction for Tsunamis in Europe

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Baptista, M. A.; Yalciner, A. C.; Canals, M.

2014-12-01

Tsunamis are low frequency but high impact natural disasters. In 2004, the Boxing Day tsunami killed hundreds of thousands of people from many nations along the coastlines of the Indian Ocean. Tsunami run-up exceeded 35 m. Seven years later, and in spite of some of the best warning technologies and levels of preparedness in the world, the Tohoku-Oki tsunami in Japan dramatically showed the limitations of scientific knowledge on tsunami sources, coastal impacts and mitigation measures. The experience from Japan raised serious questions on how to improve the resilience of coastal communities, to upgrade the performance of coastal defenses, to adopt a better risk management, and also on the strategies and priorities for the reconstruction of damaged coastal areas. Societal resilience requires the reinforcement of capabilities to manage and reduce risk at national and local scales.ASTARTE (Assessment STrategy And Risk for Tsunami in Europe), a 36-month FP7 project, aims to develop a comprehensive strategy to mitigate tsunami impact in this region. To achieve this goal, an interdisciplinary consortium has been assembled. It includes all CTWPs of NEAM and expert institutions across Europe and worldwide. ASTARTE will improve i) basic knowledge of tsunami generation and recurrence going beyond simple catalogues, with novel empirical data and new statistical analyses for assessing long-term recurrence and hazards of large events in sensitive areas of NEAM, ii) numerical techniques for tsunami simulation, with focus on real-time codes and novel statistical emulation approaches, and iii) methods for assessment of hazard, vulnerability, and risk. ASTARTE will also provide i) guidelines for tsunami Eurocodes, ii) better tools for forecast and warning for CTWPs and NTWCs, and iii) guidelines for decision makers to increase sustainability and resilience of coastal communities. In summary, ASTARTE will develop basic scientific and technical elements allowing for a significant enhancement of the Tsunami Warning System in the NEAM region in terms of monitoring, early warning and forecast, governance and resilience. This work is funded by project ASTARTE - Assessment, STrategy And Risk Reduction for Tsunamis in Europe. Grant 603839, 7th FP (ENV.2013.6.4-3 ENV.2013.6.4-3)

Source location impact on relative tsunami strength along the U.S. West Coast

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rasmussen, L.; Bromirski, P. D.; Miller, A. J.; Arcas, D.; Flick, R. E.; Hendershott, M. C.

2015-07-01

Tsunami propagation simulations are used to identify which tsunami source locations would produce the highest amplitude waves on approach to key population centers along the U.S. West Coast. The reasons for preferential influence of certain remote excitation sites are explored by examining model time sequences of tsunami wave patterns emanating from the source. Distant bathymetric features in the West and Central Pacific can redirect tsunami energy into narrow paths with anomalously large wave height that have disproportionate impact on small areas of coastline. The source region generating the waves can be as little as 100 km along a subduction zone, resulting in distinct source-target pairs with sharply amplified wave energy at the target. Tsunami spectral ratios examined for transects near the source, after crossing the West Pacific, and on approach to the coast illustrate how prominent bathymetric features alter wave spectral distributions, and relate to both the timing and magnitude of waves approaching shore. To contextualize the potential impact of tsunamis from high-amplitude source-target pairs, the source characteristics of major historical earthquakes and tsunamis in 1960, 1964, and 2011 are used to generate comparable events originating at the highest-amplitude source locations for each coastal target. This creates a type of "worst-case scenario," a replicate of each region's historically largest earthquake positioned at the fault segment that would produce the most incoming tsunami energy at each target port. An amplification factor provides a measure of how the incoming wave height from the worst-case source compares to the historical event.

Source of Organic Matter in 2011 Tohoku-oki Tsunami Deposits Determined by C/N　Ratios and δ13C

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ito, Y.; Yoshii, T.; Hamada, T.; Sasaki, T.; Tanaka, S.; Matsuyama, M.

2015-12-01

For the future mitigation of tsunami hazard in coastal areas, assessments of ancient tsunami deposits are crucially important. In order to identify tsunami deposits, several indicators have been proposed to be useful including multiple proxies using sand units, grain size and/or microfossils such as diatoms. However, tsunamis do not always leave such visible evidence in their deposits. Therefore, to characterize the tsunami inundation area for the cases without such evidence, geochemical compositions have also been applied recently. In this study, C/N and isotopic (δ13C) analyses were used to determine sources of organic matter in 2011 Tohoku-oki tsunami deposits collected from 19 coastal areas which range about 500km from north to south. We find that these parameters can be alternatively used to distinguish marine organic matter from freshwater and land plants; we confirm that a marine signature is found in most beach samples, while a signature of freshwater or land plant is recognized in soil samples obtained from unaffected inland areas. Marine signature is found in some of tsunami sand deposits close to the coastline, while the signature of freshwater or land plant is recognized in sand deposits far from the coastline. This finding suggests that marine-affected sediment was not transported to the proximity of the limit of the inundation. Marine signature is typically found in paddy field and marshy areas but not in forest or grassland, which would have supplied a large amount of land plant that affects the source of the organic matter in a tsunami deposit.

Tsunami mitigation - redistribution of energy

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kadri, Usama

2017-04-01

Tsunamis are water waves caused by the displacement of a large volume of water, in the deep ocean or a large lake, following an earthquake, landslide, underwater explosion, meteorite impacts, or other violent geological events. On the coastline, the resulting waves evolve from unnoticeable to devastating, reaching heights of tens of meters and causing destruction of property and loss of life. Over 225,000 people were killed in the 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami alone. For many decades, scientists have been studying tsunami, and progress has been widely reported in connection with the causes (1), forecasting (2), and recovery (3). However, none of the studies ratifies the approach of a direct mitigation of tsunamis, with the exception of mitigation using submarine barriers (e.g. see Ref. (4)). In an attempt to open a discussion on direct mitigation, I examine the feasibility of redistributing the total energy of a very long surface ocean (gravity) wave over a larger space through nonlinear resonant interaction with two finely tuned acoustic-gravity waves (see Refs. (5-8)). Theoretically, while the energy input in the acoustic-gravity waves required for an effective interaction is comparable to that in a tsunami (i.e. impractically large), employing the proposed mitigation technique the initial tsunami amplitude could be reduced substantially resulting in a much milder impact at the coastline. Moreover, such a technique would allow for the harnessing of the tsunami's own energy. Practically, this mitigation technique requires the design of highly accurate acoustic-gravity wave frequency transmitters or modulators, which is a rather challenging ongoing engineering problem. References 1. E. Bryant, 2014. Tsunami: the underrated hazard. Springer, doi:10.1007/978-3-319- 06133-7. 2. V. V. Titov, F. I. Gonza`lez, E. N. Bernard, M. C. Eble, H. O. Mofjeld, J. C. Newman, A. J. Venturato, 2005. Real-Time Tsunami Forecasting: Challenges and Solutions. Nat. Hazards 35:41-58, doi:10.1007/1-4020-3607-8 3 3. E. Check, 2005. Natural disasters: Roots of recovery. Nature 438, 910-911, doi:10.1038/438910a. 4. A. M. Fridman, L. S. Alperovich, L. Shemer, L. Pustil'nik, D. Shtivelman, A. G. Marchuk, D. Liberzon, 2010. Tsunami wave suppression using submarine barriers. Phys. Usp. 53 809-816, doi:10.3367/UFNe.0180.201008d.0843. 5. U. Kadri, M. Stiassnie, 2013. Generation of an acoustic-gravity wave by two gravity waves, and their mutual interaction. J. Fluid Mech. 735, R6, doi:10.1017/jfm.2013.539. 6. U. Kadri, 2015. Wave motion in a heavy compressible fluid: revisited. European Journal of Mechanics - B/Fluids, 49(A), 50-57, doi:10.1016/j.euromechflu.2014.07.008 7. U. Kadri, T.R. Akylas, 2016. On resonant triad interactions of acoustic-gravity waves. J. Fluid Mech., 788, R1(12 pages), doi:10.1017/jfm.2015.721. 8. U. Kadri, 2016. Triad resonance between a surface-gravity wave and two high frequency hydro-acoustic waves. Eur. J. Mech. B/Fluid, 55(1), 157-161, doi:10.1016/j.euromechflu.2015.09.008.

How can coastal parks contain the destructive impact of a tsunami? A numerical approach to the understanding of tsunami-triggered waves in the presence of coastal hills

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Marras, Simone; Suckale, Jenny; Lunghino, Brent; Giraldo, Francis X.; Constantinescu, Emil

2016-04-01

From the now common idea that vegetated shores may reduce the power of a destructive storm surge, an increasing number of coastal communities around the world are extending this thinking to the design of coastal parks as a way to limit the impact of a tsunami. Tsunamis and storm surges are significantly different in nature and behavior, and it is implausible that vegetation alone could act as a tsunami mitigation tool. A more comprehensive approach relies on the installation of vegetated, scattered mitigation hills in front of the shore to deviate the incoming tsunami wave instead. The analysis of how natural obstacles affect non-linear tsunami waves is still very limited and consists mostly of one-dimensional studies (e.g., [1, 2]). To that end, this work aims to extend the analysis of the interaction of waves of different shapes (solitary wave, N-wave), sizes (amplitude and wave length), and configurations with large obstacles to two-dimensional flows. The following metrics are used for a quantification of the results: 1) tsunami run-up and run-down and 2) a measure of channelization (via the flow kinetic energy and discharge). First, preliminary results show that the configuration of the obstacles is consequential as long as the amplitude of the incoming wave is large enough relative to the obstacles. In second instance, we also observed that the channelization of the flow between two neighboring obstacles may not be greatly affected solely by the distance between obstacles, but must be analyzed in relationship to the initial wave/wave train. This study is based on the numerical solution of the viscous shallow water equations via high order discontinuous finite elements method (DG) using a quadrilateral version of the model described in [3] and with fully implicit time integration [4]. Large and relatively massive hills appear to be a better solution than any offshore concrete walls, which have shown to possibly enhance the tsunami catastrophic power rather than reducing it. Nevertheless, without a thorough understanding of the behavior of non-linear waves when they approach coastal configurations such as hills, coastal parks may still be far from a safe reality. References [1] P. Lynett (2007) "Effect of shallow water obstruction on long wave run-up and overland flow velocity" J. Waterway, Port, Coastal, Ocean Engrg. 136:455-462 [2] G. F. Carrier, T. T. Wu, H. Yeh (2003) "Tsunami run-up and draw-down on a plane beach" J. Fluid Mech. 475:79-99. [3] F. X. Giraldo and M. Restelli (2010) "High-order semi- implicit time-integrators for a triangular discontinuous Galerkin oceanic shallow water model" Int. J. Numer. Methods Fluids, 63:1077-1102. [4] F X. Giraldo, J F.. Kelly, and E. Constantinescu. "Implicit-explicit formulations of a three-dimensional Nonhydrostatic Unified Model of the Atmosphere (NUMA)" SIAM J. Sci. Comput., 35:1162-1194, 2013.

Coral reefs as buffers during the 2009 South Pacific tsunami, Upolu Island, Samoa

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

McAdoo, Brian G.; Ah-Leong, Joyce Samuelu; Bell, Lui; Ifopo, Pulea; Ward, Juney; Lovell, Edward; Skelton, Posa

2011-07-01

The coral reef bordering the coastline of Samoa affected by the 29 September 2009 tsunami provides a variety of ecosystem services — from nurseries for fisheries and inshore source of food for local communities, to aesthetics for tourists, and the width of the lagoon may have been a factor in reducing the onshore wave height. To understand the complex interactions between the onshore human population and the offshore coral, we formed an interdisciplinary survey team to document the effects the tsunami had on the nearshore coral reef, and how these changes might affect local inhabitants. The scale of reef damage varied from severe, where piles of freshly-killed coral fragments and mortality were present, to areas that exhibited little impact, despite being overrun by the tsunami. We found that many coral colonies were impacted by tsunami-entrained coral debris, which had been ripped up and deposited on the fore reef by repeated cyclones and storm waves. In other places, large surface area tabular coral sustained damage as the tsunami velocity increased as it was funneled through channels. Areas that lacked debris entrained by the waves as well as areas in the lee of islands came through relatively unscathed, with the exception of the delicate corals that lived on a sandy substrate. In the lagoon on the south coast with its steep topography, coral colonies were damaged by tsunami-generated debris from onshore entrained in the backwash. Despite the potential for severe tsunami-related damage, there were no noticeable decreases in live coral cover between successive surveys at two locations, although algal cover was higher with the increased nutrients mobilized by the tsunami. While there was an immediate decrease in fish takes in the month following the tsunami, when supporting services were likely impacted, both volume and income have rapidly increased to pre-tsunami levels. Long-term monitoring should be implemented to determine if nursery services were affected.

Tsunami waveform inversion of the 2007 Bengkulu, southern Sumatra earthquake

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fujii, Y.; Satake, K.

2007-12-01

We have performed tsunami waveform inversion for the 2007 Bengkulu, southern Sumatra earthquake on September 12, 2007 (4.520°S, 101.374°E, Mw=8.4 at 11:10:26 UTC according to USGS), and found that the large slips were located on deeper part (> 20 km) of the fault plane, more than 100 km from the trench axis. The deep slip might have contributed the relatively small tsunami for its earthquake size. The largest slips more than 6 m were located beneath Pagais Islands, about 100-200 km northwest of the epicenter. The obtained slip distribution yields a total seismic moment of 3.6 × 1021 Nm (Mw = 8.3). The tsunami generated by this earthquake was recorded at many tide gauge stations located in and around the Indian Ocean. The DART system installed in deep ocean and maintained by Thai Meteorological Department (TMD) also captured this tsunami. We have downloaded the tsunami waveforms at 16 stations from University of Hawaii Sea Level Center's (UHSLC) and National Oceanic & Atmospheric Administration's (NOAA) web sites. The observed tsunami records indicate that the tsunami amplitudes were less than several tens of cm at most stations, around 1 m at Padang, nearest station to the source, and a few cm at DART station. For the tsunami waveforms inversion, we divided the source area (length: 250 km, width: 200 km) into 20 subfaults. Tsunami waveforms from each subfault (50 km × 50 km) or Greens functions were calculated by numerically solving the linear shallow-water long-wave equations. We adopted the focal mechanism of Global CMT solution (strike: 327°, dip: 12°, rake: 114°) for each subfault, and assumed a rise time of 1 min. The computed tsunami waveforms from the estimated slip distribution explain the observed waveforms at most of tide gauges and DART station.

Explosive eruption, flank collapse and megatsunami at Tenerife ca. 170 ka

PubMed Central

Paris, Raphaël; Bravo, Juan J. Coello; González, María E. Martín; Kelfoun, Karim; Nauret, François

2017-01-01

Giant mass failures of oceanic shield volcanoes that generate tsunamis potentially represent a high-magnitude but low-frequency hazard, and it is actually difficult to infer the mechanisms and dynamics controlling them. Here we document tsunami deposits at high elevation (up to 132 m) on the north-western slopes of Tenerife, Canary Islands, as a new evidence of megatsunami generated by volcano flank failure. Analyses of the tsunami deposits demonstrate that two main tsunamis impacted the coasts of Tenerife 170 kyr ago. The first tsunami was generated during the submarine stage of a retrogressive failure of the northern flank of the island, whereas the second one followed the debris avalanche of the subaerial edifice and incorporated pumices from an on-going ignimbrite-forming eruption. Coupling between a massive retrogressive flank failure and a large explosive eruption represents a new type of volcano-tectonic event on oceanic shield volcanoes and a new hazard scenario. PMID:28504256

The Geological Trace Of The 1932 Tsunamis In The Tropical Jalisco-Colima Coast, Mexico

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ramirez-Herrera, M.; Blecher, L.; Goff, J. R.; Corona, N.; Chague-Goff, C.; Lagos, M.; Hutchinson, I.; Aguilar, B.; Goguitchaichrili, A.; Machain-Castillo, M. L.; Rangel, V.; Zawadzki, A.; Jacobsen, G.

2013-05-01

The study and preservation of tsunami deposits have being challenging in humid tropical environments. While tsunami deposits have been widely studied at temperate latitudes, few studies assess this problem in tropical environments due to the difficulties intrinsic to these places (e.g. tsunami deposit preservation, post-burial changes in a tropical environment, mangrove vegetation, difficult access, wildlife, among others). Here we assess the problem of tsunami-deposits preservation on the Jalisco-Colima tropical coast of Mexico, which parallels the more than 1000-km long Mexican subduction, where historical accounts indicate the occurrence of two significant tsunamis on June 3 and 22, 1932 (Corona and Ramírez-Herrera, 2012a, Valdivia et al., 2012). However, up to date, no geological evidence of these events has been reported. We present geological evidence of two large tsunamis related to the June 3, M 8.2 earthquake, and the June 22, Ms 6.9 landslide-triggering event of 1932 (Corona and Ramírez-Herrera, 2012a, b). A multiproxy approach was applied to unravel the nature of anomalous sand units and sharp basal contacts in the stratigraphy of a number of sites at Palo Verde estuary, El Tecuán swales and marsh, and La Manzanilla swales, on the Jalisco-Colima coast. Lines of evidence including historical, geomorphological, stratigraphic, grain size, organic matter content, microfossils (diatoms and foraminifera), geochemical content, magnetic susceptibility and AMS analyses, together with dating (210Pb and 14C), and modeling, corroborate the presence of tsunami deposits of both the 3 June 1932 tsunami at El Tecuán and La Manzanilla, and the 22 June 1932 tsunami at Palo Verde. Further evidence of earlier tsunamis, at least four events, is also evident in the stratigraphy. Work in progress should reveal the chronology of the earliest tsunamis and their origin. Corona, N., M.T. Ramirez-Herrera. (2012a) Mapping and historical reconstruction of the great Mexican 1932 tsunami. Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences, 12, 1337-1352. NHESS-2011-369. Corona Morales N. y M.T. Ramírez-Herrera. (2012b) Técnicas histórico-etnográficas en la reconstrucción y caracterización de tsunamis: El ejemplo del gran tsunami del 22 de junio de 1932, en las costas del Pacífico Mexicano. Revista de Geografía Norte Grande. 53, 107-122. Valdivia O. L., Castillo A. M.R., Estrada T. M. (2012). Tsunamis en Jalisco, Geocalli, Cuadernos De Geografía, Universidad de Guadalajara. Año 13, No. 25, 103p.

Combining historical eyewitness accounts on tsunami-induced waves and numerical simulations for getting insights in uncertainty of source parameters

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rohmer, Jeremy; Rousseau, Marie; Lemoine, Anne; Pedreros, Rodrigo; Lambert, Jerome; benki, Aalae

2017-04-01

Recent tsunami events including the 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami and the 2011 Tohoku tsunami have caused many casualties and damages to structures. Advances in numerical simulation of tsunami-induced wave processes have tremendously improved forecast, hazard and risk assessment and design of early warning for tsunamis. Among the major challenges, several studies have underlined uncertainties in earthquake slip distributions and rupture processes as major contributor on tsunami wave height and inundation extent. Constraining these uncertainties can be performed by taking advantage of observations either on tsunami waves (using network of water level gauge) or on inundation characteristics (using field evidence and eyewitness accounts). Despite these successful applications, combining tsunami observations and simulations still faces several limitations when the problem is addressed for past tsunamis events like 1755 Lisbon. 1) While recent inversion studies can benefit from current modern networks (e.g., tide gauges, sea bottom pressure gauges, GPS-mounted buoys), the number of tide gauges can be very scarce and testimonies on tsunami observations can be limited, incomplete and imprecise for past tsunamis events. These observations often restrict to eyewitness accounts on wave heights (e.g., maximum reached wave height at the coast) instead of the full observed waveforms; 2) Tsunami phenomena involve a large span of spatial scales (from ocean basin scales to local coastal wave interactions), which can make the modelling very demanding: the computation time cost of tsunami simulation can be very prohibitive; often reaching several hours. This often limits the number of allowable long-running simulations for performing the inversion, especially when the problem is addressed from a Bayesian inference perspective. The objective of the present study is to overcome both afore-described difficulties in the view to combine historical observations on past tsunami-induced waves and numerical simulations. In order to learn the uncertainty information on source parameters, we treat the problem within the Bayesian setting, which enables to incorporate in a flexible manner the different uncertainty sources. We propose to rely on an emerging technique called Approximate Bayesian Computation ABC, which has been developed to estimate the posterior distribution in modelling scenarios where the likelihood function is either unknown or cannot be explicitly defined. To overcome the computational issue, we combine ABC with statistical emulators (aka meta-model). We apply the proposed approach on the case study of Ligurian (North West of Italy) tsunami (1887) and discuss the results with a special attention paid to the impact of the observational error.

Changes in Tsunami Risk Perception in Northern Chile After the April 1 2014 Tsunami

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Carvalho, L.; Lagos, M.

2016-12-01

Tsunamis are a permanent risk in the coast of Chile. Apart from that, the coastal settlements and the Chilean State, historically, have underestimated the danger of tsunamis. On April 1 2014, a magnitude Mw 8.2 earthquake and a minor tsunami occurred off the coast of northern Chile. Considering that over decades this region has been awaiting an earthquake that would generate a large tsunami, in this study we inquired if the familiarity with the subject tsunami and the lack of frequent tsunamis or occurrence of non-hazardous tsunamis for people could lead to adaptive responses to underestimate the danger. The purpose of this study was to evaluate the perceived risk of tsunami in the city of Arica, before and after the April 1 2014 event. A questionnaire was designed and applied in two time periods to 547 people living in low coastal areas in Arica. In the first step, the survey was applied in March 2014. While in step 2, new questions were included and the survey was reapplied, a year after the minor tsunami. A descriptive analysis of data was performed, followed by a comparison between means. We identified illusion of invulnerability, especially regarding to assessment that preparedness and education actions are enough. Answers about lack of belief in the occurrence of future tsunamis were also reported. At the same time, there were learning elements identified. After April 1, a larger number of participants described self-protection actions for emergency, as well as performing of preventive actions. In addition, we mapped answers about the tsunami danger degree in different locations in the city, where we observed a high knowledge of it. When compared with other hazards, the concern about tsunamis were very high, lower than earthquakes hazard, but higher than pollution, crime and rain. Moreover, we identified place attachment in answers about sense of security and affective bonds with home and their location. We discussed the relationship between risk perception, illusion of invulnerability and place attachment. Finally, we questioned whether learning elements will remain in time, or if this elements are related to short-term public interest. The April 1 event was not the largest earthquake expected in this subduction zone, therefore, it is extremely important that communities are educated and prepared to live with risk.

Probabilistic tsunami inundation map based on stochastic earthquake source model: A demonstration case in Macau, the South China Sea

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, Linlin; Switzer, Adam D.; Wang, Yu; Chan, Chung-Han; Qiu, Qiang; Weiss, Robert

2017-04-01

Current tsunami inundation maps are commonly generated using deterministic scenarios, either for real-time forecasting or based on hypothetical "worst-case" events. Such maps are mainly used for emergency response and evacuation planning and do not include the information of return period. However, in practice, probabilistic tsunami inundation maps are required in a wide variety of applications, such as land-use planning, engineer design and for insurance purposes. In this study, we present a method to develop the probabilistic tsunami inundation map using a stochastic earthquake source model. To demonstrate the methodology, we take Macau a coastal city in the South China Sea as an example. Two major advances of this method are: it incorporates the most updated information of seismic tsunamigenic sources along the Manila megathrust; it integrates a stochastic source model into a Monte Carlo-type simulation in which a broad range of slip distribution patterns are generated for large numbers of synthetic earthquake events. When aggregated the large amount of inundation simulation results, we analyze the uncertainties associated with variability of earthquake rupture location and slip distribution. We also explore how tsunami hazard evolves in Macau in the context of sea level rise. Our results suggest Macau faces moderate tsunami risk due to its low-lying elevation, extensive land reclamation, high coastal population and major infrastructure density. Macau consists of four districts: Macau Peninsula, Taipa Island, Coloane island and Cotai strip. Of these Macau Peninsula is the most vulnerable to tsunami due to its low-elevation and exposure to direct waves and refracted waves from the offshore region and reflected waves from mainland. Earthquakes with magnitude larger than Mw8.0 in the northern Manila trench would likely cause hazardous inundation in Macau. Using a stochastic source model, we are able to derive a spread of potential tsunami impacts for earthquakes with the same magnitude. The diversity is caused by both random rupture locations and heterogeneous slip distribution. Adding the sea level rise component, the inundated depth caused by 1 m sea level rise is equivalent to the one caused by 90 percentile of an ensemble of Mw8.4 earthquakes.

2015 Volcanic Tsunami Earthquake near Torishima Island: Array analysis of ocean bottom pressure gauge records

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fukao, Y.; Sugioka, H.; Ito, A.; Shiobara, H.; Sandanbata, O.; Watada, S.; Satake, K.

2016-12-01

An array of ocean bottom pressure gauges was deployed off east of Aogashima island of the Izu-Bonin arc from May 2014 to May 2015. The array consists of 10 ocean bottom pressure gauges using ParoScientific quartz resonators which can measure absolute water pressure at 7000m depth with nano-resolution. The array configures equilateral triangles with minimum and maximum lengths of 10 and 30km. This array recorded seismic and tsunami waves from the CLVD-type earthquake (M5.7) of May 02, 2015, that occurred near Torishima Island 100 km distant from the array. Comparison with records of ordinary thrust earthquakes with similar magnitudes at similar distances indicates that this event generated anomalously large tsunamis relative to seismic waves. We made an array analysis for the phase speed, propagating azimuth and travel time of tsunami wave in a frequency range 1-10 mHz, where the dispersion effect is significant. The results show excellent agreements with the frequency-dependent ray-tracing calculations. The tsunami trace apparently starts with positive onset (pressure increase) and reaches a maximum amplitude of about 200Pa (≈2cm in tsunami height). A closer inspection, however, shows a preceding negative small pulse (Fig. 1), suggesting that the seafloor deformation at the tsunami source consists of a central large uplift and a peripheral small depression. This mode of deformation is qualitatively consistent with a finite CLVD source uniformly shortened laterally and uniformly stretched vertically without volume change. The detection of weak initial motions is indebted to the array deployment of sensitive pressure gauges far away from coastal regions. The bandpass-filtered waveform is drastically different between the lower and higher frequency ranges. The waveform is single-peaked in the lower frequency range (<5 mHz) but is ringing in the higher frequency range (>5 mHz), corresponding to the tsunami spectrum that consists of the broad primary peak around 3.5 mHz and the sharp double peaks at around 6.5 and 9 mHz. We interpret the broad primary peak as due to the tsunami source associated with seafloor deformation and the sharp double peaks as due to wave resonance (seiche) inside the Smith Caldera.

How Perturbing Ocean Floor Disturbs Tsunami Waves

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Salaree, A.; Okal, E.

2017-12-01

Bathymetry maps play, perhaps the most crucial role in optimal tsunami simulations. Regardless of the simulation method, on one hand, it is desirable to include every detailed bathymetry feature in the simulation grids in order to predict tsunami amplitudes as accurately as possible, but on the other hand, large grids result in long simulation times. It is therefore, of interest to investigate a "sufficiency" level - if any - for the amount of details in bathymetry grids needed to reconstruct the most important features in tsunami simulations, as obtained from the actual bathymetry. In this context, we use a spherical harmonics series approach to decompose the bathymetry of the Pacific ocean into its components down to a resolution of 4 degrees (l=100) and create bathymetry grids by accumulating the resulting terms. We then use these grids to simulate the tsunami behavior from pure thrust events around the Pacific through the MOST algorithm (e.g. Titov & Synolakis, 1995; Titov & Synolakis, 1998). Our preliminary results reveal that one would only need to consider the sum of the first 40 coefficients (equivalent to a resolution of 1000 km) to reproduce the main components of the "real" results. This would result in simpler simulations, and potentially allowing for more efficient tsunami warning algorithms.

Sequencing of tsunami waves: Why the first wave is not always the largest

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Okal, Emile; Synolakis, Costas

2015-04-01

In many instances, the largest wave to hit a coastline during a tsunami is not the first one. Classical examples include the arrivals of the 1960 Chilean tsunami in Hilo, Hawaii, and of the 1964 Alaskan tsunami in Crescent City, California, where most casualties took place during later arrivals. This situation can be socially treacherous, since residents and civil defense authorities are led to believe that the worst is over after a first, relatively mild arrival, and to give an early "all clear" before the true largest wave, as was the case in Papeete, Tahiti during the 2011 Tohoku tsunami. We research this problem by using a number of simple models for which analytical solutions are available, as well as more realistic simulations of the large earthquake tsunamis of the past decade, and compare their results to a catalog of waveforms obtained at DART buoys spread over the Pacific Basin. Preliminary results indicate a transition from a regime of Maximum First Wave to one of Delayed Maximum when distance is increased, azimuth to receiver is moved away from the normal to fault strike, and/or source size is reduced.

Tsunami-tendenko and morality in disasters.

PubMed

Kodama, Satoshi

2015-05-01

Disaster planning challenges our morality. Everyday rules of action may need to be suspended during large-scale disasters in favour of maxims that that may make prudential or practical sense and may even be morally preferable but emotionally hard to accept, such as tsunami-tendenko. This maxim dictates that the individual not stay and help others but run and preserve his or her life instead. Tsunami-tendenko became well known after the great East Japan earthquake on 11 March 2011, when almost all the elementary and junior high school students in one city survived the tsunami because they acted on this maxim that had been taught for several years. While tsunami-tendenko has been praised, two criticisms of it merit careful consideration: one, that the maxim is selfish and immoral; and two, that it goes against the natural tendency to try to save others in dire need. In this paper, I will explain the concept of tsunami-tendenko and then respond to these criticisms. Such ethical analysis is essential for dispelling confusion and doubts about evacuation policies in a disaster. Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://group.bmj.com/group/rights-licensing/permissions.

The AD 365 earthquake: high resolution tsunami inundation for Crete and full scale simulation exercise

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kalligeris, N.; Flouri, E.; Okal, E.; Synolakis, C.

2012-04-01

In the eastern Mediterranean, historical and archaeological records document major earthquake and tsunami events in the past 2000 year (Ambraseys and Synolakis, 2010). The 1200km long Hellenic Arc has allegedly caused the strongest reported earthquakes and tsunamis in the region. Among them, the AD 365 and AD 1303 tsunamis have been extensively documented. They are likely due to ruptures of the Central and Eastern segments of the Hellenic Arc, respectively. Both events had widespread impact due to ground shaking, and e triggered tsunami waves that reportedly affected the entire eastern Mediterranean. The seismic mechanism of the AD 365 earthquake, located in western Crete, has been recently assigned a magnitude ranging from 8.3 to 8.5 by Shaw et al., (2008), using historical, sedimentological, geomorphic and archaeological evidence. Shaw et al (2008) have inferred that such large earthquakes occur in the Arc every 600 to 800 years, with the last known the AD 1303 event. We report on a full-scale simulation exercise that took place in Crete on 24-25 October 2011, based on a scenario sufficiently large to overwhelm the emergency response capability of Greece and necessitating the invocation of the Monitoring and Information Centre (MIC) of the EU and triggering help from other nations . A repeat of the 365 A.D. earthquake would likely overwhelm the civil defense capacities of Greece. Immediately following the rupture initiation it will cause substantial damage even to well-designed reinforced concrete structures in Crete. Minutes after initiation, the tsunami generated by the rapid displacement of the ocean floor would strike nearby coastal areas, inundating great distances in areas of low topography. The objective of the exercise was to help managers plan search and rescue operations, identify measures useful for inclusion in the coastal resiliency index of Ewing and Synolakis (2011). For the scenario design, the tsunami hazard for the AD 365 event was assessed for the biggest island lying in proximity of the Hellenic Arc, namely Crete. High resolution tsunami inundation modelling was performed for Heraklion and Chania. We use MOST, a non-linear finite difference hydrodynamic model thoroughly benchmarked, coupled with accurate bathymetry and topography data. Also, we used empirical attenuation relationships to estimate the effects of ground shaking on infrastructure complementing the scenario design. Tsunami inundation and ground acceleration maps are presented for the study areas, providing valuable information for earthquake and tsunami hazard.

Characterizing Mega-Earthquake Related Tsunami on Subduction Zones without Large Historical Events

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Williams, C. R.; Lee, R.; Astill, S.; Farahani, R.; Wilson, P. S.; Mohammed, F.

2014-12-01

Due to recent large tsunami events (e.g., Chile 2010 and Japan 2011), the insurance industry is very aware of the importance of managing its exposure to tsunami risk. There are currently few tools available to help establish policies for managing and pricing tsunami risk globally. As a starting point and to help address this issue, Risk Management Solutions Inc. (RMS) is developing a global suite of tsunami inundation footprints. This dataset will include both representations of historical events as well as a series of M9 scenarios on subductions zones that have not historical generated mega earthquakes. The latter set is included to address concerns about the completeness of the historical record for mega earthquakes. This concern stems from the fact that the Tohoku Japan earthquake was considerably larger than had been observed in the historical record. Characterizing the source and rupture pattern for the subduction zones without historical events is a poorly constrained process. In many case, the subduction zones can be segmented based on changes in the characteristics of the subducting slab or major ridge systems. For this project, the unit sources from the NOAA propagation database are utilized to leverage the basin wide modeling included in this dataset. The length of the rupture is characterized based on subduction zone segmentation and the slip per unit source can be determined based on the event magnitude (i.e., M9) and moment balancing. As these events have not occurred historically, there is little to constrain the slip distribution. Sensitivity tests on the potential rupture pattern have been undertaken comparing uniform slip to higher shallow slip and tapered slip models. Subduction zones examined include the Makran Trench, the Lesser Antilles and the Hikurangi Trench. The ultimate goal is to create a series of tsunami footprints to help insurers understand their exposures at risk to tsunami inundation around the world.

Non-linear resonant coupling of tsunami edge waves using stochastic earthquake source models

USGS Publications Warehouse

Geist, Eric L.

2016-01-01

Non-linear resonant coupling of edge waves can occur with tsunamis generated by large-magnitude subduction zone earthquakes. Earthquake rupture zones that straddle beneath the coastline of continental margins are particularly efficient at generating tsunami edge waves. Using a stochastic model for earthquake slip, it is shown that a wide range of edge-wave modes and wavenumbers can be excited, depending on the variability of slip. If two modes are present that satisfy resonance conditions, then a third mode can gradually increase in amplitude over time, even if the earthquake did not originally excite that edge-wave mode. These three edge waves form a resonant triad that can cause unexpected variations in tsunami amplitude long after the first arrival. An M ∼ 9, 1100 km-long continental subduction zone earthquake is considered as a test case. For the least-variable slip examined involving a Gaussian random variable, the dominant resonant triad includes a high-amplitude fundamental mode wave with wavenumber associated with the along-strike dimension of rupture. The two other waves that make up this triad include subharmonic waves, one of fundamental mode and the other of mode 2 or 3. For the most variable slip examined involving a Cauchy-distributed random variable, the dominant triads involve higher wavenumbers and modes because subevents, rather than the overall rupture dimension, control the excitation of edge waves. Calculation of the resonant period for energy transfer determines which cases resonant coupling may be instrumentally observed. For low-mode triads, the maximum transfer of energy occurs approximately 20–30 wave periods after the first arrival and thus may be observed prior to the tsunami coda being completely attenuated. Therefore, under certain circumstances the necessary ingredients for resonant coupling of tsunami edge waves exist, indicating that resonant triads may be observable and implicated in late, large-amplitude tsunami arrivals.

Database of tsunami scenario simulations for Western Iberia: a tool for the TRIDEC Project Decision Support System for tsunami early warning

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Armigliato, Alberto; Pagnoni, Gianluca; Zaniboni, Filippo; Tinti, Stefano

2013-04-01

TRIDEC is a EU-FP7 Project whose main goal is, in general terms, to develop suitable strategies for the management of crises possibly arising in the Earth management field. The general paradigms adopted by TRIDEC to develop those strategies include intelligent information management, the capability of managing dynamically increasing volumes and dimensionality of information in complex events, and collaborative decision making in systems that are typically very loosely coupled. The two areas where TRIDEC applies and tests its strategies are tsunami early warning and industrial subsurface development. In the field of tsunami early warning, TRIDEC aims at developing a Decision Support System (DSS) that integrates 1) a set of seismic, geodetic and marine sensors devoted to the detection and characterisation of possible tsunamigenic sources and to monitoring the time and space evolution of the generated tsunami, 2) large-volume databases of pre-computed numerical tsunami scenarios, 3) a proper overall system architecture. Two test areas are dealt with in TRIDEC: the western Iberian margin and the eastern Mediterranean. In this study, we focus on the western Iberian margin with special emphasis on the Portuguese coasts. The strategy adopted in TRIDEC plans to populate two different databases, called "Virtual Scenario Database" (VSDB) and "Matching Scenario Database" (MSDB), both of which deal only with earthquake-generated tsunamis. In the VSDB we simulate numerically few large-magnitude events generated by the major known tectonic structures in the study area. Heterogeneous slip distributions on the earthquake faults are introduced to simulate events as "realistically" as possible. The members of the VSDB represent the unknowns that the TRIDEC platform must be able to recognise and match during the early crisis management phase. On the other hand, the MSDB contains a very large number (order of thousands) of tsunami simulations performed starting from many different simple earthquake sources of different magnitudes and located in the "vicinity" of the virtual scenario earthquake. In the DSS perspective, the members of the MSDB have to be suitably combined based on the information coming from the sensor networks, and the results are used during the crisis evolution phase to forecast the degree of exposition of different coastal areas. We provide examples from both databases whose members are computed by means of the in-house software called UBO-TSUFD, implementing the non-linear shallow-water equations and solving them over a set of nested grids that guarantee a suitable spatial resolution (few tens of meters) in specific, suitably chosen, coastal areas.

Verification of Reproduction Simulation of the 2011 Great East Japan Tsunami Using Time-Stamp Data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Honma, Motohiro; Ushiyama, Motoyuki

2014-05-01

In the 2011 off the pacific coast of Tohoku earthquake tsunami, the significant damage and loss of lives were caused by large tsunami in the pacific coastal areas of the northern Japan. It is important to understand the situation of tsunami inundation in detail in order to establish the effective measures of disaster prevention. In this study, we calculated the detailed tsunami inundation simulation of Rikuzentakata city and verified the simulation results using not only the static observed data such as inundation area and tsunami height estimated by traces but also time stamp data which were recorded to digital camera etc. We calculated the tsunami simulation by non-linear long-wave theory using the staggered grid and leap flog scheme. We used Fujii and Satake (2011)'s model ver.4.2 as the tsunami source. The inundation model of Rikuzentakata city was constructed by fine ground level data of 10m mesh. In this simulation, the shore and river banks were set in boundary of calculation mesh. At that time, we have calculated two patterns of simulation, one condition is that a bank doesn't collapse even if tsunami overflows on it, another condition is that a bank collapses if tsunami overflows on it and its discharge exceeds the threshold. We can use the inundation area data, which was obtained by Geospatial Information Authority of Japan (GSI), and height data of tsunami trace, which were obtained by the 2011 Tohoku Earthquake Joint Survey (TTJS) group, as "static" verification data. Comparing the inundation area of simulation result with its observation by GSI, both areas are matched very well. And then, correlation coefficient between tsunami height data resulted from simulation and observed by TTJS is 0.756. In order to verify tsunami arrival time, we used the time stamp data which were recorded to digital camera etc. by citizens. Ushiyama and Yokomaku (2012) collected these tsunami stamp data and estimated the arrival time in Rikuzentakata city. We compared the arrival time resulted from tsunami simulation with estimated by Ushiyama and Yokomaku (2012) for some major points. The arrival time is earlier 2-4 minutes in the condition that a bank collapses when tsunami overflows and its discharge exceeds 0.05m2/s at each mesh boundary than in the condition that a bank doesn't collapse. And, on the whole the arrival time estimated from time stamp data is in accord with the result which were calculated in the condition that a bank collapse. We could verify reproducibility about not only the final tsunami inundation situation but also the temporal change of tsunami inundation situation by using the time stamp data. Acknowledgement In this study, we used tsunami trace data obtained by The 2011 Tohoku Earthquake Tsunami Joint Survey (TTJS) Group. Reference 1) Fujii and Satake: Tsunami Source of the Off Tohoku-Pacific Earthquake on March 11, 2011, http://iisee.kenken.go.jp/staff/fujii/OffTohokuPacific2011/tsunami_ja_ver4.2and4.6.html, 2011. 2) Ushiyama and Yokomaku: Estimation of situation in Rikuzentakata city just before tsunami attack based on time stamp data, J.JSNDS31-1, pp.47-58, 2012.

Variations in City Exposure and Sensitivity to Tsunami Hazards in Oregon

USGS Publications Warehouse

Wood, Nathan

2007-01-01

Evidence of past events and modeling of potential future events suggest that tsunamis are significant threats to Oregon coastal communities. Although a potential tsunami-inundation zone from a Cascadia Subduction Zone earthquake has been delineated, what is in this area and how communities have chosen to develop within it have not been documented. A vulnerability assessment using geographic-information-system tools was conducted to describe tsunami-prone landscapes on the Oregon coast and to document city variations in developed land, human populations, economic assets, and critical facilities relative to the tsunami-inundation zone. Results indicate that the Oregon tsunami-inundation zone contains approximately 22,201 residents (four percent of the total population in the seven coastal counties), 14,857 employees (six percent of the total labor force), and 53,714 day-use visitors on average every day to coastal Oregon State Parks within the tsunami-inundation zone. The tsunami-inundation zone also contains 1,829 businesses that generate approximately $1.9 billion in annual sales volume (seven and five percent of study-area totals, respectively) and tax parcels with a combined total value of $8.2 billion (12 percent of the study-area total). Although occupancy values are not known for each facility, the tsunami-inundation zone also contains numerous dependent-population facilities (for example, adult-residential-care facilities, child-day-care facilities, and schools), public venues (for example, religious organizations and libraries), and critical facilities (for example, police stations). Racial diversity of residents in the tsunami-inundation zone is low, with 96 percent identifying themselves as White, either alone or in combination with one or more race. Twenty-two percent of the residents in the tsunami-inundation zone are over 65 years in age, 36 percent of the residents live on unincorporated county lands, and 37 percent of the households are renter occupied. The employee population in the tsunami-inundation zone is largely in accommodation and food services, retail trade, manufacturing, and arts and entertainment sectors. Results indicate that vulnerability, described here by exposure (the amount of assets in tsunami-prone areas) and sensitivity (the relative percentage of assets in tsunami-prone areas) varies considerably among 26 incorporated cities in Oregon. City exposure and sensitivity to tsunami hazards is highest in the northern portion of the coast. The City of Seaside in Clatsop County has the highest exposure, the highest sensitivity, and the highest combined relative exposure and sensitivity to tsunamis. Results also indicate that the amount of city assets in tsunami-prone areas is weakly related to the amount of a community's land in this zone; the percentage of a city's assets, however, is strongly related to the percentage of its land that is in the tsunami-prone areas. This report will further the dialogue on societal risk to tsunami hazards in Oregon and help identify future preparedness, mitigation, response, and recovery planning needs within coastal cities and economic sectors of the state of Oregon.

Complex earthquake rupture and local tsunamis

USGS Publications Warehouse

Geist, E.L.

2002-01-01

In contrast to far-field tsunami amplitudes that are fairly well predicted by the seismic moment of subduction zone earthquakes, there exists significant variation in the scaling of local tsunami amplitude with respect to seismic moment. From a global catalog of tsunami runup observations this variability is greatest for the most frequently occuring tsunamigenic subduction zone earthquakes in the magnitude range of 7 < Mw < 8.5. Variability in local tsunami runup scaling can be ascribed to tsunami source parameters that are independent of seismic moment: variations in the water depth in the source region, the combination of higher slip and lower shear modulus at shallow depth, and rupture complexity in the form of heterogeneous slip distribution patterns. The focus of this study is on the effect that rupture complexity has on the local tsunami wave field. A wide range of slip distribution patterns are generated using a stochastic, self-affine source model that is consistent with the falloff of far-field seismic displacement spectra at high frequencies. The synthetic slip distributions generated by the stochastic source model are discretized and the vertical displacement fields from point source elastic dislocation expressions are superimposed to compute the coseismic vertical displacement field. For shallow subduction zone earthquakes it is demonstrated that self-affine irregularities of the slip distribution result in significant variations in local tsunami amplitude. The effects of rupture complexity are less pronounced for earthquakes at greater depth or along faults with steep dip angles. For a test region along the Pacific coast of central Mexico, peak nearshore tsunami amplitude is calculated for a large number (N = 100) of synthetic slip distribution patterns, all with identical seismic moment (Mw = 8.1). Analysis of the results indicates that for earthquakes of a fixed location, geometry, and seismic moment, peak nearshore tsunami amplitude can vary by a factor of 3 or more. These results indicate that there is substantially more variation in the local tsunami wave field derived from the inherent complexity subduction zone earthquakes than predicted by a simple elastic dislocation model. Probabilistic methods that take into account variability in earthquake rupture processes are likely to yield more accurate assessments of tsunami hazards.

Development of A Tsunami Magnitude Scale Based on DART Buoy Data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Leiva, J.; Polet, J.

2016-12-01

The quantification of tsunami energy has evolved through time, with a number of magnitude and intensity scales employed in the past century. Most of these scales rely on coastal measurements, which may be affected by complexities due to near-shore bathymetric effects and coastal geometries. Moreover, these datasets are generated by tsunami inundation, and thus cannot serve as a means of assessing potential tsunami impact prior to coastal arrival. With the introduction of a network of ocean buoys provided through the Deep-ocean Assessment and Reporting of Tsunamis (DART) project, a dataset has become available that can be exploited to further our current understanding of tsunamis and the earthquakes that excite them. The DART network consists of 39 stations that have produced estimates of sea-surface height as a function of time since 2003, and are able to detect deep ocean tsunami waves. Data collected at these buoys for the past decade reveals that at least nine major tsunami events, such as the 2011 Tohoku and 2013 Solomon Islands events, produced substantial wave amplitudes across a large distance range that can be implemented in a DART data based tsunami magnitude scale. We present preliminary results from the development of a tsunami magnitude scale that follows the methods used in the development of the local magnitude scale by Charles Richter. Analogous to the use of seismic ground motion amplitudes in the calculation of local magnitude, maximum ocean height displacements due to the passage of tsunami waves will be related to distance from the source in a least-squares exponential regression analysis. The regression produces attenuation curves based on the DART data, a site correction term, attenuation parameters, and an amplification factor. Initially, single event based regressions are used to constrain the attenuation parameters. Additional iterations use the parameters of these event-based fits as a starting point to obtain a stable solution, and include the calculation of station corrections, in order to obtain a final amplification factor for each event, which is used to calculate its tsunami magnitude.

Seismic probabilistic tsunami hazard: from regional to local analysis and use of geological and historical observations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tonini, R.; Lorito, S.; Orefice, S.; Graziani, L.; Brizuela, B.; Smedile, A.; Volpe, M.; Romano, F.; De Martini, P. M.; Maramai, A.; Selva, J.; Piatanesi, A.; Pantosti, D.

2016-12-01

Site-specific probabilistic tsunami hazard analyses demand very high computational efforts that are often reduced by introducing approximations on tsunami sources and/or tsunami modeling. On one hand, the large variability of source parameters implies the definition of a huge number of potential tsunami scenarios, whose omission could easily lead to important bias in the analysis. On the other hand, detailed inundation maps computed by tsunami numerical simulations require very long running time. When tsunami effects are calculated at regional scale, a common practice is to propagate tsunami waves in deep waters (up to 50-100 m depth) neglecting non-linear effects and using coarse bathymetric meshes. Then, maximum wave heights on the coast are empirically extrapolated, saving a significant amount of computational time. However, moving to local scale, such assumptions drop out and tsunami modeling would require much greater computational resources. In this work, we perform a local Seismic Probabilistic Tsunami Hazard Analysis (SPTHA) for the 50 km long coastal segment between Augusta and Siracusa, a touristic and commercial area placed along the South-Eastern Sicily coast, Italy. The procedure consists in using the outcomes of a regional SPTHA as input for a two-step filtering method to select and substantially reduce the number of scenarios contributing to the specific target area. These selected scenarios are modeled using high resolution topo-bathymetry for producing detailed inundation maps. Results are presented as probabilistic hazard curves and maps, with the goal of analyze, compare and highlight the different results provided by regional and local hazard assessments. Moreover, the analysis is enriched by the use of local observed tsunami data, both geological and historical. Indeed, tsunami data-sets available for the selected target areas are particularly rich with respect to the scarce and heterogeneous data-sets usually available elsewhere. Therefore, they can represent valuable benchmarks for testing and strengthening the results of such kind of studies. The work is funded by the Italian Flagship Project RITMARE, the two EC FP7 projects ASTARTE (Grant agreement 603839) and STREST (Grant agreement 603389), and the INGV-DPC Agreement.

Earthquake and Tsunami: a movie and a book for seismic and tsunami risk reduction in Italy.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nostro, C.; Baroux, E.; Maramai, A.; Graziani, L.; Tertulliani, A.; Castellano, C.; Arcoraci, L.; Casale, P.; Ciaccio, M. G.; Frepoli, A.

2009-04-01

Italy is a country well known for the seismic and volcanic hazard. However, a similarly great hazard, although not well recognized, is posed by the occurrence of tsunami waves along the Italian coastline. This is testified by a rich catalogue and by field evidence of deposits left over by pre- and historical tsunamis, even in places today considered safe. This observation is of great importance since many of the areas affected by tsunamis in the past are today touristic places. The Italian tsunamis can be caused by different sources: 1- off-shore or near coast in-land earthquakes; 2- very large earthquakes on distant sources in the Mediterranean; 3- submarine volcanic explosion in the Tyrrhenian sea; 4- submarine landslides triggered by earthquakes and volcanic activity. The consequence of such a wide spectrum of sources is that an important part of the more than 7000 km long Italian coast line is exposed to the tsunami risk, and thousands of inhabitants (with numbers increasing during summer) live near hazardous coasts. The main historical tsunamis are the 1783 and 1908 events that hit Calabrian and Sicilian coasts. The recent tsunami is that caused by the 2002 Stromboli landslide. In order to reduce this risk and following the emotional impact of the December 2004 Sumatra earthquake and tsunami, we developed an outreach program consisting in talks given by scientists and in a movie and a book, both exploring the causes of the tsunami waves, how do they propagate in deep and shallow waters, and what are the effects on the coasts. Hints are also given on the most dangerous Italian coasts (as deduced by scientific studies), and how to behave in the case of a tsunami approaching the coast. These seminars are open to the general public, but special programs are developed with schools of all grades. In this talk we want to present the book and the movie used during the seminars and scientific expositions, that was realized from a previous 3D version originally developed for science festivals.

What caused a large number of fatalities in the Tohoku earthquake?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ando, M.; Ishida, M.; Nishikawa, Y.; Mizuki, C.; Hayashi, Y.

2012-04-01

The Mw9.0 earthquake caused 20,000 deaths and missing persons in northeastern Japan. 115 years prior to this event, there were three historical tsunamis that struck the region, one of which is a "tsunami earthquake" resulted with a death toll of 22,000. Since then, numerous breakwaters were constructed along the entire northeastern coasts and tsunami evacuation drills were carried out and hazard maps were distributed to local residents on numerous communities. However, despite the constructions and preparedness efforts, the March 11 Tohoku earthquake caused numerous fatalities. The strong shaking lasted three minutes or longer, thus all residents recognized that this is the strongest and longest earthquake that they had been ever experienced in their lives. The tsunami inundated an enormous area at about 560km2 over 35 cities along the coast of northeast Japan. To find out the reasons behind the high number of fatalities due to the March 11 tsunami, we interviewed 150 tsunami survivors at public evacuation shelters in 7 cities mainly in Iwate prefecture in mid-April and early June 2011. Interviews were done for about 30min or longer focused on their evacuation behaviors and those that they had observed. On the basis of the interviews, we found that residents' decisions not to evacuate immediately were partly due to or influenced by earthquake science results. Below are some of the factors that affected residents' decisions. 1. Earthquake hazard assessments turned out to be incorrect. Expected earthquake magnitudes and resultant hazards in northeastern Japan assessed and publicized by the government were significantly smaller than the actual Tohoku earthquake. 2. Many residents did not receive accurate tsunami warnings. The first tsunami warning were too small compared with the actual tsunami heights. 3. The previous frequent warnings with overestimated tsunami height influenced the behavior of the residents. 4. Many local residents above 55 years old experienced the 1960 Chile tsunami, which was significantly smaller than that of the 11 March tsunami. This sense of "knowing" put their lives at high risk. 5. Some local residents believed that with the presence of a breakwater, only slight flooding would occur. 6. Many people did not understand why tsunami is created under the sea. Therefore, relation of earthquake and tsunami is not quite linked to many people. These interviews made it clear that many deaths resulted because current technology and earthquake science underestimated tsunami heights, warning systems failed, and breakwaters were not strong or high enough. However, even if these problems occur in future earthquakes, better knowledge regarding earthquakes and tsunami hazards could save more lives. In an elementary school when children have fresh brain, it is necessary for them to learn the basic mechanism of tsunami generation.

Variations in Community Exposure and Sensitivity to Tsunami Hazards in the State of Hawai'i

USGS Publications Warehouse

Wood, Nathan; Church, Alyssia; Frazier, Tim; Yarnal, Brent

2007-01-01

Hawai`i has experienced numerous destructive tsunamis and the potential for future events threatens the safety and economic well being of its coastal communities. Although tsunami-evacuation zones have been delineated, what is in these areas and how communities have chosen to develop within them has not been documented. A community-level vulnerability assessment using geographic-information-system tools was conducted to describe tsunami-prone landscapes on the Hawaiian coast and to document variations in land cover, demographics, economic assets, and critical facilities among 65 communities. Results indicate that the Hawai`i tsunami-evacuation zone contains approximately 56,678 residents (five percent of the total population), 67,113 employees (eleven percent of the State labor force), and 50,174 average daily visitors to hotels (44 percent of the State total). With regards to economic conditions, the tsunami-evacuation zone contains 5,779 businesses that generate $10.1 billion in annual sales volume (both eleven percent of State totals), and tax parcels with a combined total value of $36.1 billion (18 percent of the State total). Although occupancy values are not known for each facility, the tsunami-evacuation zone also contains numerous dependent-population facilities (for example, child-day-care facilities and schools), public venues (for example, religious organizations and parks) and critical facilities (for example, fire stations). The residential population in tsunami-prone areas is racially diverse, with most residents identifying themselves as White, Asian, or Native Hawaiian and Other Pacific Islander, either alone or in combination with one or more race. Fifty-one percent of the households in the tsunami-evacuation zone are renter occupied. The employee population in the tsunami-evacuation zone is largely in accommodation and food services, health services, and retail-trade sectors. Results indicate that community vulnerability, described here by exposure (the amount of assets in tsunami-prone areas) and sensitivity (the relative percentage of assets in tsunami-prone areas) varies considerably among 65 coastal communities in Hawai`i. Honolulu has the highest exposure, Punalu`u has the highest sensitivity, and Ka`anapali has the highest combination of exposure and sensitivity to tsunamis. Results also indicate that the level of community-asset exposure to tsunamis is not determined by the amount of a community's land that is in tsunami-evacuation zones. Community sensitivity, however, is related to the percentage of a community's land that is in the tsunami-prone areas. This report will further the dialogue on societal risk to tsunami hazards in Hawai`i and help identify future preparedness, mitigation, response, and recovery planning needs within coastal communities and economic sectors of the State of Hawai`i.

Fukushima nuclear power plant accident was preventable

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kanoglu, Utku; Synolakis, Costas

2015-04-01

On 11 March 2011, the fourth largest earthquake in recorded history triggered a large tsunami, which will probably be remembered from the dramatic live pictures in a country, which is possibly the most tsunami-prepared in the world. The earthquake and tsunami caused a major nuclear power plant (NPP) accident at the Fukushima Dai-ichi, owned by Tokyo Electric Power Company (TEPCO). The accident was likely more severe than the 1979 Three Mile Island and less severe than the Chernobyl 1986 accidents. Yet, after the 26 December 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami had hit the Madras Atomic Power Station there had been renewed interest in the resilience of NPPs to tsunamis. The 11 March 2011 tsunami hit the Onagawa, Fukushima Dai-ichi, Fukushima Dai-ni, and Tokai Dai-ni NPPs, all located approximately in a 230km stretch along the east coast of Honshu. The Onagawa NPP was the closest to the source and was hit by an approximately height of 13m tsunami, of the same height as the one that hit the Fukushima Dai-ichi. Even though the Onagawa site also subsided by 1m, the tsunami did not reach to the main critical facilities. As the International Atomic Energy Agency put it, the Onagawa NPP survived the event "remarkably undamaged." At Fukushima Dai-ichi, the three reactors in operation were shut down due to strong ground shaking. The earthquake damaged all offsite electric transmission facilities. Emergency diesel generators (EDGs) provided back up power and started cooling down the reactors. However, the tsunami flooded the facilities damaging 12 of its 13 EDGs and caused a blackout. Among the consequences were hydrogen explosions that released radioactive material in the environment. It is unfortunately clear that TEPCO and Japan's principal regulator Nuclear and Industrial Safety Agency (NISA) had failed in providing a professional hazard analysis for the plant, even though their last assessment had taken place only months before the accident. The main reasons are the following. One, insufficient attention was paid to evidence of large tsunamis inundating the region, i.e., AD 869 Jogan and 1677 Empo Boso-oki tsunamis, and the 1896 Sanriku tsunami maximum height in eastern Japan whose maximum runup was 38m. Two, the design safety conditions were different in Onagawa, Fukushima and Tokai NPPs. It is inconceivable to have had different earthquake scenarios for the NPPs at such close distance from each other. Three, studying the sub-standard TEPCO analysis performed only months before the accident shows that it is not the accuracy of numerical computations or the veracity of the computational model that doomed the NPP, but the lack of familiarity with the context of numerical predictions. Inundation projections, even if correct for one particular scenario, need to always be put in context of similar studies and events elsewhere. To put it in colloquial terms, following a recipe from a great cookbook and having great cookware does not always result in great food, if the cook is an amateur. The Fukushima accident was preventable. Had the plant's owner TEPCO and NISA followed international best practices and standards, they would had predicted the possibility of the plant being struck by the size of tsunami that materialized in 2011. If the EDGs had been relocated inland or higher, there would have been no loss of power. A clear chance to have reduced the impact of the tsunami at Fukushima was lost after the 2010 Chilean tsunami. Standards are not only needed for evaluating the vulnerability of NPPs against tsunami attack, but also for evaluating the competence of modelers and evaluators. Acknowledgment: This work is partially supported by the project ASTARTE (Assessment, STrategy And Risk Reduction for Tsunamis in Europe) FP7-ENV2013 6.4-3, Grant 603839 to the Technical University of Crete and the Middle East Technical University.

Tsunami Risk Management in Pacific Island Countries and Territories (PICTs): Some Issues, Challenges and Ways Forward

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dominey-Howes, Dale; Goff, James

2013-09-01

The Pacific is well known for producing tsunamis, and events such as the 2011 Tōhoku-oki, Japan disaster demonstrate the vulnerability of coastal communities. We review what is known about the current state of tsunami risk management for Pacific Island countries and territories (PICTs), identify the issues and challenges associated with affecting meaningful tsunami disaster risk reduction (DRR) efforts and outline strategies and possible ways forward. Small island states are scattered across the vast Pacific region and these states have to varying degrees been affected by not only large tsunamis originating in circum-Pacific subduction zones, but also more regionally devastating events. Having outlined and described what is meant by the risk management process, the various problems associated with our current understanding of this process are examined. The poorly understood hazard related to local, regional and distant sources is investigated and the dominant focus on seismic events at the expense of other tsunami source types is noted. We reflect on the challenges of undertaking numerical modelling from generation to inundation and specifically detail the problems as they relate to PICTs. This is followed by an exploration of the challenges associated with mapping exposure and estimating vulnerability in low-lying coastal areas. The latter part of the paper is devoted to exploring what mitigation of the tsunami risk can look like and draw upon good practice cases as exemplars of the actions that can be taken from the local to regional level. Importantly, given the diversity of PICTs, no one approach will suit all places. The paper closes by making a series of recommendations to assist PICTs and the wider tsunami research community in thinking through improvements to their tsunami risk management processes and the research that can underpin these efforts.

Propagation of uncertainties for an evaluation of the Azores-Gibraltar Fracture Zone tsunamigenic potential

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Antoshchenkova, Ekaterina; Imbert, David; Richet, Yann; Bardet, Lise; Duluc, Claire-Marie; Rebour, Vincent; Gailler, Audrey; Hébert, Hélène

2016-04-01

The aim of this study is to assess evaluation the tsunamigenic potential of the Azores-Gibraltar Fracture Zone (AGFZ). This work is part of the French project TANDEM (Tsunamis in the Atlantic and English ChaNnel: Definition of the Effects through numerical Modeling; www-tandem.cea.fr), special attention is paid to French Atlantic coasts. Structurally, the AGFZ region is complex and not well understood. However, a lot of its faults produce earthquakes with significant vertical slip, of a type that can result in tsunami. We use the major tsunami event of the AGFZ on purpose to have a regional estimation of the tsunamigenic potential of this zone. The major reported event for this zone is the 1755 Lisbon event. There are large uncertainties concerning source location and focal mechanism of this earthquake. Hence, simple deterministic approach is not sufficient to cover on the one side the whole AGFZ with its geological complexity and on the other side the lack of information concerning the 1755 Lisbon tsunami. A parametric modeling environment Promethée (promethee.irsn.org/doku.php) was coupled to tsunami simulation software based on shallow water equations with the aim of propagation of uncertainties. Such a statistic point of view allows us to work with multiple hypotheses simultaneously. In our work we introduce the seismic source parameters in a form of distributions, thus giving a data base of thousands of tsunami scenarios and tsunami wave height distributions. Exploring our tsunami scenarios data base we present preliminary results for France. Tsunami wave heights (within one standard deviation of the mean) can be about 0.5 m - 1 m for the Atlantic coast and approaching 0.3 m for the English Channel.

CAT: the INGV Tsunami Alert Center

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Michelini, A.

2014-12-01

After the big 2004 Sumatra earthquake, the tsunami threat posed by large earthquakes occurring in the Mediterranean sea was formally taken into account by many countries around the Mediterranean basin. In the past, large earthquakes that originated significant tsunamis occurred nearly once per century (Maramai et al., 2014, Annals of Geophysics). The Intergovernmental Oceanographic Commission of UNESCO (IOC-UNESCO) received a mandate from the international community to coordinate the establishment of the ICG/NEAMTWS (http://neamtic.ioc-unesco.org) through Resolution IOC-XXIII-14. Since then, several countries (France, Turkey, Greece) have started operating as candidate Tsunami Watch Provider (cTWP) in the Mediterranean. Italy started operating as cTWP on October 1st, 2014. The Italian cTWP is formed by INGV ("Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia)", DPC ("Dipartimento di Protezione Civile") and ISPRA ("Istituto Superiore per la Protezione e la Ricerca Ambientale"). INGV is in charge of issuing the alert for potentially tsunamigenic earthquakes, ISPRA provides the sea level recordings and DPC is in charge of disseminating the alert. INGV established the tsunami alert center (CAT, "Centro di Allerta Tsunami") at the end of 2013. CAT is co-located with the INGV national seismic surveillance center operated since many years. In this work, we show the technical and personnel organization of CAT, its response to recent earthquakes, and the new procedures under development for implementation. (*) INGV-CAT WG: Amato A., Basili R., Bernardi F., Bono A., Danecek P., De Martini P.M., Govoni A., Graziani L., Lauciani V., Lomax, A., Lorito S., Maramai A., Mele F., Melini D., Molinari I., Nostro C., Piatanesi A., Pintore S., Quintiliani M., Romano F., Selva J., Selvaggi G., Sorrentino D., Tonini R.

A submarine landslide source for the devastating 1964 Chenega tsunami, southern Alaska

USGS Publications Warehouse

Brothers, Daniel; Haeussler, Peter J.; Lee Liberty,; David Finlayson,; Geist, Eric L.; Labay, Keith A.; Michael Byerly,

2016-01-01

During the 1964 Great Alaska earthquake (Mw 9.2), several fjords, straits, and bays throughout southern Alaska experienced significant tsunami runup of localized, but unexplained origin. Dangerous Passage is a glacimarine fjord in western Prince William Sound, which experienced a tsunami that devastated the village of Chenega where 23 of 75 inhabitants were lost – the highest relative loss of any community during the earthquake. Previous studies suggested the source of the devastating tsunami was either from a local submarine landslide of unknown origin or from coseismic tectonic displacement. Here we present new observations from high-resolution multibeam bathymetry and seismic reflection surveys conducted in the waters adjacent to the village of Chenega. The seabed morphology and substrate architecture reveal a large submarine landslide complex in water depths of 120–360 m. Analysis of bathymetric change between 1957 and 2014 indicates the upper 20–50 m (∼0.7 km3) of glacimarine sediment was destabilized and evacuated from the steep face of a submerged moraine and an adjacent ∼21 km2 perched sedimentary basin. Once mobilized, landslide debris poured over the steep, 130 m-high face of a deeper moraine and then blanketed the terminal basin (∼465 m water depth) in 11 ± 5 m of sediment. These results, combined with inverse tsunami travel-time modeling, suggest that earthquake- triggered submarine landslides generated the tsunami that struck the village of Chenega roughly 4 min after shaking began. Unlike other tsunamigenic landslides observed in and around Prince William Sound in 1964, the failures in Dangerous Passage are not linked to an active submarine delta. The requisite environmental conditions needed to generate large submarine landslides in glacimarine fjords around the world may be more common than previously thought. 

Tsunamis from strike-slip earthquakes in the Wharton Basin, northeast Indian Ocean: March 2016 Mw7.8 event and its relationship with the April 2012 Mw 8.6 event

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Heidarzadeh, Mohammad; Harada, Tomoya; Satake, Kenji; Ishibe, Takeo; Takagawa, Tomohiro

2017-12-01

The Wharton Basin, off southwest Sumatra, ruptured to a large intraplate left-lateral strike-slip Mw 7.8 earthquake on 2016 March 2. The epicentre was located ∼800 km to the south of another similar-mechanism intraplate Mw 8.6 earthquake in the same basin on 2012 April 11. Small tsunamis from these strike-slip earthquakes were registered with maximum amplitudes of 0.5-1.5 cm on DARTs and 1-19 cm on tide gauges for the 2016 event, and the respective values of 0.5-6 and 6-40 cm for the 2012 event. By using both teleseismic body waves and tsunami observations of the 2016 event, we obtained optimum slip models with rupture velocity (Vr) in the range of 2.8-3.6 km s-1 belonging to both EW and NS faults. While the EW fault plane cannot be fully ruled out, we chose the best model as the NS fault plane with a Vr of 3.6 km s-1, a maximum slip of 7.7 m and source duration of 33 s. The tsunami energy period bands were 4-15 and 7-24 min for the 2016 and 2012 tsunamis, respectively, reflecting the difference in source sizes. Seismicity in the Wharton Basin is dominated by large strike-slip events including the 2012 (Mw 8.6 and 8.2) and 2016 (Mw 7.8) events, indicating that these events are possible tsunami sources in the Wharton Basin. Cumulative number and cumulative seismic-moment curves revealed that most earthquakes are of strike-slip mechanisms and the largest seismic-moment is provided by the strike-slip earthquakes in this basin.

Damages in American Samoa due to the 29 September 2009 Samoa Islands Region Earthquake Tsunami

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Okumura, Y.; Takahashi, T.; Suzuki, S.

2009-12-01

A large earthquake of Mw 8.0 occurred in Samoa Islands Region in the early morning on 29 September 2009 (local time). A Large Tsunami generated by the earthquake hit Samoa, American Samoa, Tonga. Total 192 people were died or missing in these three countries (22 October 2009). The authors surveyed in Tutuila Island, American Samoa from 6 to 8 in October 2009 with the aim to find out damages in the disaster. In American Samoa, death and missing toll was 35. The main findings are as follows; first, human damages were little for tsunami run-up height of about 4 to 6 meters and tsunami arrival time of about 20 minutes. We can suppose that residents evacuated quickly after feeling shaking or something. Secondly, houses were severely damaged in some low elevation coastal villages such as Amanave, Leone, Pago Pago, Tula and so on. Third, a power plant and an airport, which are important infrastructures in relief and recovery phase, were also severely damaged. Inundation depth at the power plant was 2.31 meters. A blackout in the daytime lasted when we surveyed. On the other hand, the airport could use already at that time. But it was closed on the first day in the disaster because of a lot of disaster debris on the runway carried by tsunami. Inundation depth at the airport fence was measured in 0.7 to 0.8 meters. Other countries in the south-western Pacific region may have power plants or airports with similar risk, so it should be assessed against future tsunami disasters. Inundated thermal power plant in Pago Pago Debris on runway in Tafuna Airport (Provided by Mr. Chris Soti, DPA)

Microbial Ecology of Thailand Tsunami and Non-Tsunami Affected Terrestrials

PubMed Central

Somboonna, Naraporn; Wilantho, Alisa; Jankaew, Kruawun; Assawamakin, Anunchai; Sangsrakru, Duangjai; Tangphatsornruang, Sithichoke; Tongsima, Sissades

2014-01-01

The effects of tsunamis on microbial ecologies have been ill-defined, especially in Phang Nga province, Thailand. This ecosystem was catastrophically impacted by the 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami as well as the 600 year-old tsunami in Phra Thong island, Phang Nga province. No study has been conducted to elucidate their effects on microbial ecology. This study represents the first to elucidate their effects on microbial ecology. We utilized metagenomics with 16S and 18S rDNA-barcoded pyrosequencing to obtain prokaryotic and eukaryotic profiles for this terrestrial site, tsunami affected (S1), as well as a parallel unaffected terrestrial site, non-tsunami affected (S2). S1 demonstrated unique microbial community patterns than S2. The dendrogram constructed using the prokaryotic profiles supported the unique S1 microbial communities. S1 contained more proportions of archaea and bacteria domains, specifically species belonging to Bacteroidetes became more frequent, in replacing of the other typical floras like Proteobacteria, Acidobacteria and Basidiomycota. Pathogenic microbes, including Acinetobacter haemolyticus, Flavobacterium spp. and Photobacterium spp., were also found frequently in S1. Furthermore, different metabolic potentials highlighted this microbial community change could impact the functional ecology of the site. Moreover, the habitat prediction based on percent of species indicators for marine, brackish, freshwater and terrestrial niches pointed the S1 to largely comprise marine habitat indicating-species. PMID:24710002

Tsunami vs Infragravity Surge: Statistics and Physical Character of Extreme Runup

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lynett, P. J.; Montoya, L. H.

2017-12-01

Motivated by recent observations of energetic and impulsive infragravity (IG) flooding events - also known as sneaker waves - we will present recent work on the relative probabilities and dynamics of extreme flooding events from tsunamis and long period wind wave events. The discussion will be founded on videos and records of coastal flooding by both recent tsunamis and IG, such as those in the Philippines during Typhoon Haiyan. From these observations, it is evident that IG surges may approach the coast as breaking bores with periods of minutes; a very tsunami-like character. Numerical simulations will be used to estimate flow elevations and speeds from potential IG surges, and these will be compared with similar values from tsunamis, over a range of different beach profiles. We will examine the relative rareness of each type of flooding event, which for large values of IG runup is a particularly challenging topic. For example, for a given runup elevation or flooding speed, the related tsunami return period may be longer than that associated with IG, implying that deposit information associated with such elevations or speeds are more likely to be caused by IG. Our purpose is to provide a statistical and physical discriminant between tsunami and IG, such that in areas exposed to both, a proper interpretation of overland transport, deposition, and damage is possible.

Microbial ecology of Thailand tsunami and non-tsunami affected terrestrials.

PubMed

Somboonna, Naraporn; Wilantho, Alisa; Jankaew, Kruawun; Assawamakin, Anunchai; Sangsrakru, Duangjai; Tangphatsornruang, Sithichoke; Tongsima, Sissades

2014-01-01

The effects of tsunamis on microbial ecologies have been ill-defined, especially in Phang Nga province, Thailand. This ecosystem was catastrophically impacted by the 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami as well as the 600 year-old tsunami in Phra Thong island, Phang Nga province. No study has been conducted to elucidate their effects on microbial ecology. This study represents the first to elucidate their effects on microbial ecology. We utilized metagenomics with 16S and 18S rDNA-barcoded pyrosequencing to obtain prokaryotic and eukaryotic profiles for this terrestrial site, tsunami affected (S1), as well as a parallel unaffected terrestrial site, non-tsunami affected (S2). S1 demonstrated unique microbial community patterns than S2. The dendrogram constructed using the prokaryotic profiles supported the unique S1 microbial communities. S1 contained more proportions of archaea and bacteria domains, specifically species belonging to Bacteroidetes became more frequent, in replacing of the other typical floras like Proteobacteria, Acidobacteria and Basidiomycota. Pathogenic microbes, including Acinetobacter haemolyticus, Flavobacterium spp. and Photobacterium spp., were also found frequently in S1. Furthermore, different metabolic potentials highlighted this microbial community change could impact the functional ecology of the site. Moreover, the habitat prediction based on percent of species indicators for marine, brackish, freshwater and terrestrial niches pointed the S1 to largely comprise marine habitat indicating-species.

Road infrastructure resilience to tsunami in Cilegon

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Arini, Srikandi Wahyu; Sumabrata, Jachrizal

2017-11-01

Indonesia is vulnerable to natural disasters. The highest number of natural disaster occurs on the west side of Java Island with the tsunami as the most deadly. Cilegon, a densely populated city with high industrial activity is located on the west coast of Java Island with a gently sloping topography, hence it is vulnerable to tsunami. Simulations conducted by the National Disaster Management Authority indicates that earthquakes with epicenters in the Sunda strait will cause tsunamis which can sweep away the whole industrial area in one hour. The availability of evacuation routes which can accommodate the evacuation of large numbers of people within a short time is required. Road infrastructure resilience is essential to support the performance of the evacuation routes. Poor network resilience will reduce mobility and accessibility during the evacuation. The objectives of this paper are to analyze the impact of the earthquake-generated tsunami on the evacuation routes and to simulate and analyze the performance of existing evacuation routes in Cilegon. The limitations of the modeling approaches including the current and future challenges in evacuation transport research and its applications are also discussed. The conclusion from this study is accurate data source are needed to build a more representative model and predict the areas susceptible to tsunamis vulnerable areas and to construct cogent tsunami mitigation plans and actions for the most vulnerable areas.

Large California Tsunamis From Central Coast Historians And Central Coast Newspaper Records

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Blanck, E. L.

2009-12-01

Approximately, 1996, Unocal historian Darwin Sainz mentioned the newly built Union Oil “Oilport” refinery in what is now Shell Beach (between Pismo & Avila Beaches and at 50 to 100 feet elevation) was destroyed by a tsunami in the early 1900’s. July 2009, George Plafker reported, “a bigger earthquake and a more destructive tsunami than the 1964 event are possible in the future”. The 1812 Santa Barbara Channel earthquake produced 5 tsunami waves approximately 50 feet in height to the front of the Santa Barbara Presidio based on a Franciscan Father’s journal. A book on “Shipwrecks, Smugglers, and Maritime Mysteries” by Wheeler & Kallman reports the largest wave was 48-50 feet estimated by the USGS west of Santa Barbara near Goleta. The “History of San Luis Obispo County, California” by Thompson & West (1883) reports 12 feet tsunamis occurred on August 13, 1868 (Peruvian earthquake) and April 16, 1877. On November 22, 1878, turbulent water in the absence of wind produced tsunamis that broke over the Morro Bay sand spit (current quad sheet high elevations 66 to 97 feet N to S), destroyed Avila & Pt. Sal piers, damaging Cayucos pier. A Japanese earthquake resulted in a tsunami at 12:40 PM December 9, 1907, near high tide and in already heavy seas, that stood out from the rest of the storm due to its’ enormous height. It wrecked the Ventura pier (12-13-1907, SLO Tribune) and the Oilport pier (12-13-1907, SLO Tribune & 12-6-1976 also 12-14-1907, Santa Maria Times & 12-10-1907 SLO Telegram) at Shell beach and destroyed the Oilport refinery (Darwin Sainz, personal communication). Before 7 AM on November 26, 1913, tsunamis wrecked the Monterey area including waves 10 to15 feet above the Del Monte wharf. At Seaside, “Immense domes of water and foam shot up above the general height” … “appearing from here to be higher than the highest sandhills along the shore.”(12-2-1913, SLO Tribune) Current quad sheet high elevations are 120 feet. These reports of historic tsunamis represent wave elevations significantly higher than the 1964 Alaska earthquake tsunami that is typically used for emergency planning for tsunami inundation in California. Since it appears 4 much larger tsunamis occurred in the Central Coast area in 1812, 1878, 1907 and 1913; it appears we may have become complacent during this recent period of tsunami quiescence. Emergency planning for Central Coast tsunamis should be anticipating tsunami waves in the 50 to 100 feet elevation range.

Development of a new real-time GNSS data analysis system in GEONET for rapid Mw estimates in Japan

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kawamoto, S.; Miyagawa, K.; Yahagi, T.; Yamaguchi, K.; Tsuji, H.; Nishimura, T.; Ohta, Y.; Hino, R.; Miura, S.

2013-12-01

The 2011 off the Pacific Coast of Tohoku Earthquake (Mw 9.0) occurred on March 11, 2011. The earthquake and following tsunami caused serious damages to the broad coastal area of east Japan. Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) operates the Tsunami Warning system, which is designed to forecast the tsunami height and its arrival time around 3 minutes after a large event. However, the first estimated magnitude of Mj, which was used for Tsunami Warning issuance, was far below the real one at the Tohoku event because of a saturation problem. In principle, as well as most other magnitude scales, Mj is saturated at certain values around 8.0. On the other hand, Mw represents the earthquake energy itself and it can be directly calculated by permanent displacements derived from geodetic measurements without the saturation problem. GNSS Earth Observation Network System (GEONET) is one of the densest real-time GNSS networks in the world operated by Geospatial Information Authority of Japan (GSI). The GEONET data and recent rapid advancement of GNSS analysis techniques motivate us to develop a new system for tackling the tsunami disasters. In order to provide the more reliable magnitude for Tsunami Warning, GSI and Tohoku University have jointly developed a new real-time analysis system in GEONET for quasi real-time Mw estimation. Its targets are large earthquakes, especially ones of Mw > 8.0, which would be saturated by the Tsunami Warning system. The real-time analysis system in GEONET mainly consists of three parts: (1) real-time GNSS positioning, (2) automated extraction of displacement fields due to the large earthquake, and (3) automated estimation of Mw by an approximated single rectangular fault. The positions of each station are calculated by using RTKLIB 2.4.1 (Takasu, 2011) with the baseline mode and the predicted part of the IGS Ultra Rapid precise orbit. For the event detection, we adopt the 'RAPiD' algorithm (Ohta et al., 2012) or Earthquake Early Warning issued by JMA. This whole process is done within 10 seconds at most and the estimated results are immediately announced to GSI staffs by e-mail. We examined the system by using the recorded 1Hz GEONET data of past several large earthquakes in Japan. The results showed that it could estimate reliable Mw within a few minutes like Mw of 8.9 for the 2011 Tohoku earthquake (Mw 9.0) after 172 seconds, Mw of 7.6 for the 2011 off Ibaraki earthquake (Mw 7.7) after 107 seconds and Mw of 8.0 for the 2003 Tokachi-oki earthquake (Mw 8.0) after 93 seconds respectively. GSI launched its prototype in April of 2012 with 146 GEONET stations for covering mainly Tohoku district and now is planning to extend it to the whole area of Japan. We assure that this system would become one of the powerful tools for supporting Tsunami Warinng in order to prevent or mitigate the severe damages of future disastrous tsunamis.

Facilitating Long-Term Recovery from Natural Disasters: Psychosocial Programming for Tsunami-Affected Schools of Sri Lanka

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Nastasi, Bonnie K.; Jayasena, Asoka; Summerville, Meredith; Borja, Amanda P.

2011-01-01

This article reports the findings of a school-based intervention project conducted in the Southern Province of Sri Lanka 15 to 18 months after the December 2004 Tsunami. The work responds to the need for culturally relevant programming to address long-term psychosocial recovery of children and adolescents affected by large scale disasters. Program…

Modeling tsunami damage in Aceh: a reply

Treesearch

Louis R. Iverson; Anantha M. Prasad

2008-01-01

In reply to the critique of Baird and Kerr, we emphasize that our model is a generalized vulnerability model, built from easily acquired data from anywhere in the world, to identify areas with probable susceptibility to large tsunamis--and discuss their other criticisms in detail. We also show that a rejection of the role of trees in helping protect vulnerable areas is...

78 FR 48201 - Japan Lessons-Learned Project Directorate Interim Staff Guidance JLD-ISG-2013-01; Guidance for...

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2013-08-07

... following the earthquake and shutdown of the operating units, however, the first large tsunami wave inundated the site, followed by additional waves. The tsunami caused extensive damage to site facilities and..., and after some period of time at the other units. Unit 6 retained the function of one air-cooled EDG...

78 FR 3039 - Japan Lessons-Learned Project Directorate Interim Staff Guidance JLD-ISG-2012-06; Performing a...

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2013-01-15

... following the earthquake and shutdown of the operating units, however, the first large tsunami wave inundated the site, followed by additional waves. The tsunami caused extensive damage to site facilities and..., and after some period of time at the other units. Unit 6 retained the function of one air-cooled EDG...

Tsunami Inundation Mapping for the Upper East Coast of the United States

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tehranirad, B.; Kirby, J. T., Jr.; Callahan, J. A.; Shi, F.; Banihashemi, S.; Grilli, S. T.; Grilli, A. R.; Tajalli Bakhsh, T. S.; O'Reilly, C.

2014-12-01

We describe the modeling of tsunami inundation for the Upper US East Coast (USEC) from Ocean City, MD up to Nantucket, MA. and the development of inundation maps for use in emergency management and hazard analysis. Seven tsunami sources were used as initial conditions in order to develop inundation maps based on a Probable Maximum Tsunami approach. Of the seven, two coseismic sources were used; the first being a large earthquake in the Puerto Rico Trench, in the well-known Caribbean Subduction Zone, and the second, an earthquake close to the Azores Gibraltar plate boundary known as the source of the biggest tsunami recorded in the North Atlantic Basin. In addition, four Submarine Mass Failure (SMF) sources located at different locations on the edge of the shelf break were simulated. Finally, the Cumbre Vieja Volcanic (CVV) collapse, located in the Canary Islands, was studied. For this presentation, we discuss modeling results for nearshore tsunami propagation and onshore inundation. A fully nonlinear Boussinesq model (FUNWAVE-TVD) is used to capture the characteristics of tsunami propagation, both nearshore and inland. In addition to the inundation line as the main result of this work, other tsunami quantities such as inundation depth and maximum velocities will be discussed for the whole USEC area. Moreover, a discussion of most vulnerable areas to a possible tsunami in the USEC will be provided. For example, during the inundation simulation process, it was observed that coastal environments with barrier islands are among the hot spots to be significantly impacted by a tsunami. As a result, areas like western Long Island, NY and Atlantic City, NJ are some of the locations that will get extremely affected in case of a tsunami occurrence in the Atlantic Ocean. Finally, the differences between various tsunami sources modeled here will be presented. Although inundation lines for different sources usually follow a similar pattern, there are clear distinctions between the inundation depth and other tsunami features in different areas. Figure below shows the inundation depth for surrounding area of the Ocean City, MD. Figure (a) and (b) are the envelope inundation depth for SMF and coseismic sources. Figure (C) shows the inundation depth for CVV source, which clearly has the largest magnitude amongst the sources studied for this work.

The 2004 Indian Ocean Tsunami in Maldives: waves and disaster affected by shape of coral reefs and islands

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kan, H.; Ali, M.; Riyaz, M.

2005-12-01

In Maldives, 39 islands are significantly damaged among 200 inhabited islands and nearly a third of the Maldivian people are severely affected by the Indian Ocean Tsunami in 26 December 2004. We surveyed tsunami impact in 43 islands by measuring island topography and run-up height, interview to local people and mapping of the flooded and destructed areas. The differences in tsunami height and disaster corresponding to the atoll shape and island topography are observed. In the northern atolls, atoll rims consist of many ring-shaped reefs, i.e. miniature atolls called `faro', and interrupted many channels between them. The interrupted atoll rim may play an important role to reducing tsunami run-up height. Severe damage was not observed in the eastern coast of the islands. Beach ridge also contribute to the protection against tsunami. However, in some islands, houses beside the lagoon are damaged by backwashing floodwater from the lagoon. Water marks show the run-up height of -1.8m above MSL. The lagoon water-level seems to set-up by tsunami which permeates into the lagoon through the interrupted atoll rim. The disaster was severe at the southern atolls of Meemu, Thaa and Laamu. The higher run-up heights of up to 3.2m above MSL and enormous building damages were observed at the islands on the eastern atoll rims. The continuous atoll rim of these atolls may reinforce tsunami impact at the eastern islands. In addition, tsunami surge washed the islands totally because of low island topography without beach ridge. Significant floodwater from lagoon was not observed in these atolls. It seems the lagoon water-level was not set-up largely. The continuous atoll rim reduces the tsunami influence to the lagoon and the western side of the atolls. The continuity of atoll rim is probably the major factor to cause the difference in water movement, i.e. tsunami run-up and lagoon set-up, which affects the disaster in the islands. Beach ridge contribute to reduce the tsunami impact to the settlement and agricultural land. Our results may elucidate secure atoll and island type to mitigate the risk of future tsunamis on atoll nations/districts in the Pacific and the Indian Ocean.

Tsunami field survey in French Polynesia of the 2015 Chilean earthquake Mw = 8.2 and what we learned.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jamelot, Anthony; Reymond, Dominique; Savigny, Jonathan; Hyvernaud, Olivier

2016-04-01

The tsunami generated by the earthquake of magnitude Mw=8.2 near the coast of central Chile on the 16th September 2015 was observed on 7 tide gauges distributed over the five archipelagoes composing French Polynesia, a territory as large as Europe. We'll sum up all the observations of the tsunami and the field survey done in Tahiti (Society islands) and Hiva-Oa (Marquesas islands) to evaluate the preliminary tsunami forecast tool (MERIT) and the detailed tsunami forecast tool (COASTER) of the French Polynesian Tsunami Warning Center. The preliminary tool forecasted a maximal tsunami height between 0.5m to 2.3 m all over the Marquesas Islands. But only the island of Hiva-Oa had a tsunami forecast greater than 1 meter especially in the Tahauku Bay well known for its local response due to its resonance properties. In Tahauku bay, the tide gauge located at the entrance of the bay recorded a maximal tsunami height above mean sea level ~ 1.7 m; and we measured at the bottom of the bay a run-up about 2.8 m at 388 m inland from the shoreline in the river bed, and a run-up of 2.5 m located 155 m inland. The multi-grid simulation over Tahiti was done one hour after the origin time of the earthquake and gave a very localized tsunami impact on the North shore. Our forecast indicated an inundation about 10 m inland that lead Civil Authorities to evacuate 6 houses. It was the first operational use of this new fine grid covering the north part of Tahiti that is not protected by a coral reef. So we were attentive to the feed back of the alert that confirm the forecast of the maximal height arrival 1 hour after the first arrival. The tsunami warning system forecast well strong impact as well as low impact as long as we have an early robust description of the seismic parameters and fine grids about 10 m spatial resolution to simulate tsunami impact. In January of 2016 we are able to forecast tsunami heights for 72 points located over 35 islands of French Polynesia.

Probabilistic assessment of landslide tsunami hazard for the northern Gulf of Mexico

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pampell-Manis, A.; Horrillo, J.; Shigihara, Y.; Parambath, L.

2016-01-01

The devastating consequences of recent tsunamis affecting Indonesia and Japan have prompted a scientific response to better assess unexpected tsunami hazards. Although much uncertainty exists regarding the recurrence of large-scale tsunami events in the Gulf of Mexico (GoM), geological evidence indicates that a tsunami is possible and would most likely come from a submarine landslide triggered by an earthquake. This study customizes for the GoM a first-order probabilistic landslide tsunami hazard assessment. Monte Carlo Simulation (MCS) is employed to determine landslide configurations based on distributions obtained from observational submarine mass failure (SMF) data. Our MCS approach incorporates a Cholesky decomposition method for correlated landslide size parameters to capture correlations seen in the data as well as uncertainty inherent in these events. Slope stability analyses are performed using landslide and sediment properties and regional seismic loading to determine landslide configurations which fail and produce a tsunami. The probability of each tsunamigenic failure is calculated based on the joint probability of slope failure and probability of the triggering earthquake. We are thus able to estimate sizes and return periods for probabilistic maximum credible landslide scenarios. We find that the Cholesky decomposition approach generates landslide parameter distributions that retain the trends seen in observational data, improving the statistical validity and relevancy of the MCS technique in the context of landslide tsunami hazard assessment. Estimated return periods suggest that probabilistic maximum credible SMF events in the north and northwest GoM have a recurrence of 5000-8000 years, in agreement with age dates of observed deposits.

Coupled Eulerian-Lagrangian transport of large debris by tsunamis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Conde, Daniel A. S.; Ferreira, Rui M. L.; Sousa Oliveira, Carlos

2016-04-01

Tsunamis are notorious for the large disruption they can cause on coastal environments, not only due to the imparted momentum of the incoming wave but also due to its capacity to transport large quantities of solid debris, either from natural or human-made sources, over great distances. A 2DH numerical model under development at CERIS-IST (Ferreira et al., 2009; Conde, 2013) - STAV2D - capable of simulating solid transport in both Eulerian and Lagrangian paradigms will be used to assess the relevance of Lagrangian-Eulerian coupling when modelling the transport of solid debris by tsunamis. The model has been previously validated and applied to tsunami scenarios (Conde, 2013), being well-suited for overland tsunami propagation and capable of handling morphodynamic changes in estuaries and seashores. The discretization scheme is an explicit Finite Volume technique employing flux-vector splitting and a reviewed Roe-Riemann solver. Source term formulations are employed in a semi-implicit way, including the two-way coupling of the Lagrangian and Eulerian solvers by means of conservative mass and momentum transfers between fluid and solid phases. The model was applied to Sines Port, a major commercial port in Portugal, where two tsunamigenic scenarios are considered: an 8.5 Mw scenario, consistent with the Great Lisbon Earthquake and Tsunami of the 1st November 1755 (Baptista, 2009), and an hypothetical 9.5 Mw worst-case scenario based on the same historical event. Open-ocean propagation of these scenarios were simulated with GeoClaw model from ClawPack (Leveque, 2011). Following previous efforts on the modelling of debris transport by tsunamis in seaports (Conde, 2015), this work discusses the sensitivity of the obtained results with respect to the phenomenological detail of the employed Eulerian-Lagrangian formulation and the resolution of the mesh used in the Eulerian solver. The results have shown that the fluid to debris mass ratio is the key parameter regarding the conservativeness of the model. This way, in highly resolved meshes and high quantities of debris, the model approaches full conservativeness only if the two-way coupling feature is present, an effect that is attenuated in coarse meshes or with small debris quantities. Aknownledgements: This work was partially funded by FEDER, program COMPETE, and by national funds through the Portuguese Foundation for Science and Technology (FCT) with project RECI/ECM-HID/0371/2012. References: Baptista M.A. & Miranda, J.M. (2009) Revision of the Portuguese catalog of tsunamis. Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 9, 25-42. Conde, D. A. S.; Baptista, M. A. V.; Sousa Oliveira, C. & Ferreira, R. M. L. (2013) A shallow-flow model for the propagation of tsunamis over complex geometries and mobile beds, Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 13, 2533-2542. Conde, D. A. S.; Baptista, M. A. V.; Sousa Oliveira, C. & Ferreira, R. M. L. (2015) Mathematical modelling of tsunami impacts on critical infrastructures: exposure and severity associated with debris transport at Sines port. EGU General Assembly 2015, Vienna, Austria. Ferreira, R. M. L.; Franca, M. J.; Leal, J. G. & Cardoso, A. H. (2009) Mathematical modelling of shallow flows: Closure models drawn from grain-scale mechanics of sediment transport and flow hydrodynamics, Can. J. Civil. Eng., 36, 1604-1621. LeVeque, R. J., George, D. L., & Berger, M. J. (2011) Tsunami modelling with adaptively refined finite volume methods, Acta Numerica, pp. 211-289.

Book review: Physics of tsunamis

USGS Publications Warehouse

Geist, Eric L.

2017-01-01

“Physics of Tsunamis”, second edition, provides a comprehensive analytical treatment of the hydrodynamics associated with the tsunami generation process. The book consists of seven chapters covering 388 pages. Because the subject matter within each chapter is distinct, an abstract appears at the beginning and references appear at the end of each chapter, rather than at the end of the book. Various topics of tsunami physics are examined largely from a theoretical perspective, although there is little information on how the physical descriptions are applied in numerical models.“Physics of Tsunamis”, by B. W. Levin and M. A. Nosov, Second Edition, Springer, 2016; ISBN-10: 33-1933106X, ISBN-13: 978-331933-1065

Real-time and on-demand buoy observation system for tsunami and crustal displacement

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Takahashi, N.; Imai, K.; Ishihara, Y.; Fukuda, T.; Ochi, H.; Suzuki, K.; Kido, M.; Ohta, Y.; Imano, M.; Hino, R.

2017-12-01

We develop real-time and on-demand buoy observation system for tsunami and crustal displacement. It is indispensable for observation of crustal displacement to understand changes of stress field related to future large earthquakes. The current status of the observation is carried out by using a vessel with an interval of a few times per a year. When a large earthquake occurs, however, we need dense or on-demand observation of the crustal displacement to grasp nature of the slow slip after the rupture. Therefore, we constructed buoy system with a buoy station, wire-end station, seafloor unit and acoustic transponders for crustal displacement, and we installed a pressure sensor on the seafloor unit and GNSS system on the buoy in addition to measurement of e distance between the buoy and the seafloor acoustic transponders. Tsunami is evaluated using GNSS data and pressure data sent from seafloor. Observation error of the GNSS is about 10 cm. The crustal displacement is estimated using pressure sensor for vertical and acoustic measurement for horizontal. Using current slack ratio of 1.58, the observation error for the measurement of the crustal displacement is about 10 cm. We repeated three times sea trials and confirmed the data acquisition with high data quality, mooring without dredging anchor in the strong sea current with a speed of 5.5 knots. Current issues to be resolved we face are removing noises on the acoustic data transmission, data transmission between the buoy and wire-end stations, electrical consumption on the buoy station and large observation error on the crustal displacement due to large slack ratio. We consider the change of the acoustic transmission for pressure data, replace of a GNSS data logger with large electrical consumption, and reduce of the slack ratio, and search method to reduce resistance of the buoy on the sea water. In this presentation, we introduce the current status of the technical development and tsunami waveforms recorded on our seafloor unit using recent tsunami signals earthquake for the data quality check.

Duration of Tsunami Generation Longer than Duration of Seismic Wave Generation in the 2011 Mw 9.0 Tohoku-Oki Earthquake

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fujihara, S.; Korenaga, M.; Kawaji, K.; Akiyama, S.

2013-12-01

We try to compare and evaluate the nature of tsunami generation and seismic wave generation in occurrence of the 2011 Tohoku-Oki earthquake (hereafter, called as TOH11), in terms of two type of moment rate functions, inferred from finite source imaging of tsunami waveforms and seismic waveforms. Since 1970's, the nature of "tsunami earthquakes" has been discussed in many researches (e.g. Kanamori, 1972; Kanamori and Kikuchi, 1993; Kikuchi and Kanamori, 1995; Ide et al., 1993; Satake, 1994) mostly based on analysis of seismic waveform data , in terms of the "slow" nature of tsunami earthquakes (e.g., the 1992 Nicaragura earthquake). Although TOH11 is not necessarily understood as a tsunami earthquake, TOH11 is one of historical earthquakes that simultaneously generated large seismic waves and tsunami. Also, TOH11 is one of earthquakes which was observed both by seismic observation network and tsunami observation network around the Japanese islands. Therefore, for the purpose of analyzing the nature of tsunami generation, we try to utilize tsunami waveform data as much as possible. In our previous studies of TOH11 (Fujihara et al., 2012a; Fujihara et al., 2012b), we inverted tsunami waveforms at GPS wave gauges of NOWPHAS to image the spatio-temporal slip distribution. The "temporal" nature of our tsunami source model is generally consistent with the other tsunami source models (e.g., Satake et al, 2013). For seismic waveform inversion based on 1-D structure, here we inverted broadband seismograms at GSN stations based on the teleseismic body-wave inversion scheme (Kikuchi and Kanamori, 2003). Also, for seismic waveform inversion considering the inhomogeneous internal structure, we inverted strong motion seismograms at K-NET and KiK-net stations, based on 3-D Green's functions (Fujihara et al., 2013a; Fujihara et al., 2013b). The gross "temporal" nature of our seismic source models are generally consistent with the other seismic source models (e.g., Yoshida et al., 2011; Ide at al., 2011; Yagi and Fukahata, 2011; Suzuki et al., 2011). The comparison of two type of moment rate functions, inferred from finite source imaging of tsunami waveforms and seismic waveforms, suggested that there was the time period common to both seismic wave generation and tsunami generation followed by the time period unique to tsunami generation. At this point, we think that comparison of the absolute values of moment rates is not so meaningful between tsunami waveform inversion and seismic waveform inversion, because of general ambiguity of rigidity values of each subfault in the fault region (assuming the rigidity value of 30 GPa of Yoshida et al (2011)). Considering this, the normalized value of moment rate function was also evaluated and it does not change the general feature of two moment rate functions in terms of duration property. Furthermore, the results suggested that tsunami generation process apparently took more time than seismic wave generation process did. Tsunami can be generated even by "extra" motions resulting from many suggested abnormal mechanisms. These extra motions may be attribute to the relatively larger-scale tsunami generation than expected from the magnitude level from seismic ground motion, and attribute to the longer duration of tsunami generation process.

Source characterization and tsunami modeling of submarine landslides along the Yucatán Shelf/Campeche Escarpment, southern Gulf of Mexico

USGS Publications Warehouse

Chaytor, Jason D.; Geist, Eric L.; Paull, Charles K.; Caress, David W; Gwiazda, Roberto; Urrutia Fucugauchi, Jaime; Rebolledo Vieyra, Mario

2016-01-01

Submarine landslides occurring along the margins of the Gulf of Mexico (GOM) represent a low-likelihood, but potentially damaging source of tsunamis. New multibeam bathymetry coverage reveals that mass wasting is pervasive along the Yucatán Shelf edge with several large composite landslides possibly removing as much as 70 km3 of the Cenozoic sedimentary section in a single event. Using GIS-based analysis, the dimensions of six landslides from the central and northern sections of the Yucatán Shelf/Campeche Escarpment were determined and used as input for preliminary tsunami generation and propagation models. Tsunami modeling is performed to compare the propagation characteristics and distribution of maximum amplitudes throughout the GOM among the different landslide scenarios. Various factors such as landslide geometry, location along the Yucatán Shelf/Campeche Escarpment, and refraction during propagation result in significant variations in the affected part of the Mexican and US Gulf Coasts. In all cases, however, tsunami amplitudes are greatest along the northern Yucatán Peninsula.

A possible source mechanism of the 1946 Unimak Alaska far-field tsunami, uplift of the mid-slope terrace above a splay fault zone

USGS Publications Warehouse

von Huene, Roland E.; Miller, John J.; Klaeschen, Dirk; Dartnell, Peter

2016-01-01

In 1946, megathrust seismicity along the Unimak segment of the Alaska subduction zone generated the largest ever recorded Alaska/Aleutian tsunami. The tsunami severely damaged Pacific islands and coastal areas from Alaska to Antarctica. It is the charter member of “tsunami” earthquakes that produce outsized far-field tsunamis for the recorded magnitude. Its source mechanisms were unconstrained by observations because geophysical data for the Unimak segment were sparse and of low resolution. Reprocessing of legacy geophysical data reveals a deep water, high-angle reverse or splay thrust fault zone that leads megathrust slip upward to the mid-slope terrace seafloor rather than along the plate boundary toward the trench axis. Splay fault uplift elevates the outer mid-slope terrace and its inner area subsides. Multibeam bathymetry along the splay fault zone shows recent but undated seafloor disruption. The structural configuration of the nearby Semidi segment is similar to that of the Unimak segment, portending generation of a future large tsunami directed toward the US West coast.

Knowledge base and sensor bus messaging service architecture for critical tsunami warning and decision-support

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sabeur, Z. A.; Wächter, J.; Middleton, S. E.; Zlatev, Z.; Häner, R.; Hammitzsch, M.; Loewe, P.

2012-04-01

The intelligent management of large volumes of environmental monitoring data for early tsunami warning requires the deployment of robust and scalable service oriented infrastructure that is supported by an agile knowledge-base for critical decision-support In the TRIDEC project (TRIDEC 2010-2013), a sensor observation service bus of the TRIDEC system is being developed for the advancement of complex tsunami event processing and management. Further, a dedicated TRIDEC system knowledge-base is being implemented to enable on-demand access to semantically rich OGC SWE compliant hydrodynamic observations and operationally oriented meta-information to multiple subscribers. TRIDEC decision support requires a scalable and agile real-time processing architecture which enables fast response to evolving subscribers requirements as the tsunami crisis develops. This is also achieved with the support of intelligent processing services which specialise in multi-level fusion methods with relevance feedback and deep learning. The TRIDEC knowledge base development work coupled with that of the generic sensor bus platform shall be presented to demonstrate advanced decision-support with situation awareness in context of tsunami early warning and crisis management.

Comparable Analysis of the Distribution Functions of Runup Heights of the 1896, 1933 and 2011 Japanese Tsunamis in the Sanriku Area

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Choi, B. H.; Min, B. I.; Yoshinobu, T.; Kim, K. O.; Pelinovsky, E.

2012-04-01

Data from a field survey of the 2011 tsunami in the Sanriku area of Japan is presented and used to plot the distribution function of runup heights along the coast. It is shown that the distribution function can be approximated using a theoretical log-normal curve [Choi et al, 2002]. The characteristics of the distribution functions derived from the runup-heights data obtained during the 2011 event are compared with data from two previous gigantic tsunamis (1896 and 1933) that occurred in almost the same region. The number of observations during the last tsunami is very large (more than 5,247), which provides an opportunity to revise the conception of the distribution of tsunami wave heights and the relationship between statistical characteristics and number of observations suggested by Kajiura [1983]. The distribution function of the 2011 event demonstrates the sensitivity to the number of observation points (many of them cannot be considered independent measurements) and can be used to determine the characteristic scale of the coast, which corresponds to the statistical independence of observed wave heights.

Subaqueous Tsunami Deposits from Ohtsuchi Bay of Sanriku Coast, North Eastern Japan

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Haraguchi, T.; Fujiwara, O.; Shimazaki, K.

2005-12-01

Holocene tsunami history was analyzed by using a drilling core obtained from the Ohtsuchi Bay on the Sanriku coast, Pacific side of NE Japan. The saw-tooth Sanriku coast line, facing the Japan Trench, is well known for repeated suffers from the historical great tsunamis. The worst tsunami damage in Japanese history, more than 20,000 fatalities, by the AD1896 Meiji Sanriku Tsunami (M 8 1/2) centered off Sanriku was recorded from this coast. However, the geological records of ancient tsunami such as tsunami deposits have been rarely reported from the Sanriku coast.Reconstruction of the pale-tsunami history including the recurrence interval is fundamental data for the tsunami disaster mitigation on the coast. The core, 24-meter long, obtained from a bay center of 10 m-deep is mainly composed of sandy mud excluding the basal gravel bed (core bottom reached SL-34 m). Sand and gravelly sand beds ranging from several to 200 cm-thick are intercalated in the core and denoted TS-22 to TS-1 in ascending order. Most of these coarse-grained beds have evidences of deposition from high-energy and density currents, basal erosion surface, rip-up clasts mixed mulluscan shells, inverse- and normal grading, and generally upward-fining sequence.Most likely origin of these event deposits is great tsunami, because the coring site is a deep and low energy bay floor isolated from major river mouth. Low sediment supply by river floods and small disturbance by wind waves at the drilling site are favorable for the preservation of tsunami deposits. Depositional ages of TS-1 to TS-22 were estimated from a depositional curve of the core based on ten 14C ages of marine shells. Recurrence interval of 13 sand and gravel beds in the lower part of the core, TS22 (ca. 7800 cal BP) to TS-10 (AD1660-1700), is 400 to 500 years.The number of event beds in the upper part of the core, deposited during the last 400 years (TS-9 to TS-1), approximates to that of historic large tsunamis recorded around the Ohtsuchi Bay (13-14 times).Remarkable differences of the recurrence intervals of event deposits between the lower and upper parts of the core reflects the change of sediment supply system and preservation potential of the event deposits.Identification of tsunami deposits from other deposits such as river flood and storm deposits is problem to be solved for reconstructing the accurate tsunami history on the Sanriku coast.

Alaska earthquake source for the SAFRR tsunami scenario: Chapter B in The SAFRR (Science Application for Risk Reduction) Tsunami Scenario

USGS Publications Warehouse

Kirby, Stephen; Scholl, David; von Huene, Roland E.; Wells, Ray

2013-01-01

Tsunami modeling has shown that tsunami sources located along the Alaska Peninsula segment of the Aleutian-Alaska subduction zone have the greatest impacts on southern California shorelines by raising the highest tsunami waves for a given source seismic moment. The most probable sector for a Mw ~ 9 source within this subduction segment is between Kodiak Island and the Shumagin Islands in what we call the Semidi subduction sector; these bounds represent the southwestern limit of the 1964 Mw 9.2 Alaska earthquake rupture and the northeastern edge of the Shumagin sector that recent Global Positioning System (GPS) observations indicate is currently creeping. Geological and geophysical features in the Semidi sector that are thought to be relevant to the potential for large magnitude, long-rupture-runout interplate thrust earthquakes are remarkably similar to those in northeastern Japan, where the destructive Mw 9.1 tsunamigenic earthquake of 11 March 2011 occurred. In this report we propose and justify the selection of a tsunami source seaward of the Alaska Peninsula for use in the Tsunami Scenario that is part of the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) Science Application for Risk Reduction (SAFRR) Project. This tsunami source should have the potential to raise damaging tsunami waves on the California coast, especially at the ports of Los Angeles and Long Beach. Accordingly, we have summarized and abstracted slip distribution from the source literature on the 2011 event, the best characterized for any subduction earthquake, and applied this synoptic slip distribution to the similar megathrust geometry of the Semidi sector. The resulting slip model has an average slip of 18.6 m and a moment magnitude of Mw = 9.1. The 2011 Tohoku earthquake was not anticipated, despite Japan having the best seismic and geodetic networks in the world and the best historical record in the world over the past 1,500 years. What was lacking was adequate paleogeologic data on prehistoric earthquakes and tsunamis, a data gap that also presently applies to the Alaska Peninsula and the Aleutian Islands. Quantitative appraisal of potential tsunami sources in Alaska requires such investigations.

Seismic behavior of breakwaters on complex ground by numerical tests: Liquefaction and post liquefaction ground settlements

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gu, Linlin; Zhang, Feng; Bao, Xiaohua; Shi, Zhenming; Ye, Guanlin; Ling, Xianzhang

2018-04-01

A large number of breakwaters have been constructed along coasts to protect humans and infrastructures from tsunamis. There is a risk that foundation soils of these structures may liquefy, or partially liquefy during the earthquake preceding a tsunami, which would greatly reduce the structures' capacity to resist the tsunami. It is necessary to consider not only the soil's liquefaction behavior due to earthquake motions but also its post-liquefaction behavior because this behavior will affect the breakwater's capacity to resist an incoming tsunami. In this study, numerical tests based on a sophisticated constitutive model and a soil-water coupled finite element method are used to predict the mechanical behavior of breakwaters and the surrounding soils. Two real breakwaters subjected to two different seismic excitations are examined through numerical simulation. The simulation results show that, earthquakes affect not only the immediate behavior of breakwaters and the surrounding soils but also their long-term settlements due to post-earthquake consolidation. A soil profile with thick clayey layers beneath liquefied soil is more vulnerable to tsunami than a soil profile with only sandy layers. Therefore, quantitatively evaluating the seismic behavior of breakwaters and surrounding soils is important for the design of breakwater structures to resist tsunamis.

Tsunami Disaster Risk Assessment and Prevention in West Java, Indonesia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Deng, H.; Harris, R. A.; Horns, D. M.; Yulianto, E.; Bunds, M. P.; Prasetyadi, C.; Emmett, C.; Hall, S.

2016-12-01

Java Island, Indonesia is the most populated area and one of the most tectonically active coastal nations on Earth. This island is the volcanic arc and accretionary wedge of the subduction zone of the Sunda and the Australia plate, where the Java Trench is located. However, the Java Trench hasn't had a mega or giant earthquake for at least 430 years according to historical records. Up to 30 m of slip may have accumulated on the subduction zone interface during this time, which is enough to produce a Mw 9.0 earthquake and large tsunami. One of the largest seismic gaps along the Sunda Arc is a 640 km section of the coast of west Java. The largest population center in this region is Pelabuhan Ratu, with is partially built on ridge and swale coastal plain topography. Candidate tsunami deposits were found in swales that may indicate inundation up to 1 km inland. Numerical modeling of various possible tsunami scenarios indicate that the configuration of the coastline may amplify a tsunami and cause high run-up in the most populated areas or the coast. Also, data from questionnaire surveys administered in Pelabuhan Ratu show a lack of awareness about how tsunamis threaten these communities and plans of action.

Variations in Community Exposure and Sensitivity to Tsunami Hazards on the Open-Ocean and Strait of Juan de Fuca Coasts of Washington

USGS Publications Warehouse

Wood, Nathan; Soulard, Christopher

2008-01-01

Evidence of past events and modeling of potential future events suggest that tsunamis are significant threats to communities on the open-ocean and Strait of Juan de Fuca coasts of Washington. Although potential tsunami-inundation zones from a Cascadia Subduction Zone (CSZ) earthquake have been delineated, the amount and type of human development in tsunami-prone areas have not been documented. A vulnerability assessment using geographic-information-system tools was conducted to document variations in developed land, human populations, economic assets, and critical facilities relative to CSZ-related tsunami-inundation zones among communities on the open-ocean and Strait of Juan de Fuca coasts of Washington (including Clallam, Jefferson, Grays Harbor, and Pacific Counties). The tsunami-inundation zone in these counties contains 42,972 residents (24 percent of the total study-area population), 24,934 employees (33 percent of the total labor force), and 17,029 daily visitors to coastal Washington State Parks. The tsunami-inundation zone also contains 2,908 businesses that generate $4.6 billion in annual sales volume (31 and 40 percent of study-area totals, respectively) and tax parcels with a combined total value of $4.5 billion (25 percent of the study-area total). Although occupancy values are not known for each site, the tsunami-inundation zone also contains numerous dependent-population facilities (for example, schools and child-day-care centers), public venues (for example, religious organizations), and critical facilities (for example, police stations and public-work facilities). Racial diversity of residents in tsunami-prone areas is low?89 percent of residents are White and 8 percent are American Indian or Alaska Native. Nineteen percent of the residents in the tsunami-inundation zone are over 65 years in age, 30 percent of the residents live on unincorporated county lands, and 35 percent of the households are renter occupied. Employees in the tsunami-inundation zone are largely in businesses related to health care and social assistance, accommodation and food services, and retail trade, reflecting businesses that cater to a growing retiree and tourist population. Community vulnerability, described here by exposure (the amount of assets in tsunami-prone areas) and sensitivity (the relative percentage of assets in tsunami-prone areas) varies among 13 incorporated cities, 7 Indian reservations, and 4 counties. The City of Aberdeen has the highest relative community exposure to tsunamis, whereas the City of Long Beach has the highest relative community sensitivity. Levels of community exposure and sensitivity to tsunamis are found to be related to the amount and percentage, respectively, of a community?s land that is in a tsunami-inundation zone. This report will further the dialogue on societal risk to tsunami hazards in Washington and help risk managers to determine where additional risk-reduction strategies may be needed.

Geological Evidence of Predecessors to the 2010 Earthquake and Tsunami in South-Central Chile

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ely, L. L.; Cisternas, M.; Wesson, R. L.; Lagos, M.

2010-12-01

On February 27, 2010 a great M 8.8 earthquake and accompanying tsunami struck the region between Constitución and Concepción in south-central Chile. In the year immediately preceding this event, we described and surveyed deposits from previous tsunamis at several sites in the Concepción region (36.5°-38.5° S. Lat). This research positioned us to document the geomorphic and tectonic effects of the 2010 earthquake and tsunami. Following the 2010 earthquake we quantified the inundation, inland extent, erosion and deposition of the 2010 tsunami at our study sites and compared with those of previous tsunamis. The 2010 tsunami deposits were also utilized to guide the search for repositories where stratigraphic records of multiple paleotsunami deposits are likely to be preserved. The characteristic of the 2010 tsunami were similar to those reported after the penultimate earthquake in the Concepción region, which occurred in 1835. A sand sheet from the 2010 tsunami blanketed sites at Tirua (38.5° S. Lat) and the Andalien River, (36.7° S. Lat), where we had identified preexisting anomalous, laterally-continuous sand sheets that thin landward and are interbedded with coastal marsh deposits. The great similarity between these and the 2010 tsunami sands substantiated our interpretation that they were also left by previous tsunamis. At the Tirua River estuary, the 2010 tsunami sand sheet is underlain by at least three earlier tsunami deposits. This site lies at the boundary between the northern end of the rupture zone from the M 9.5 earthquake in 1960 and the southernmost reports of the 1835 and 2010 tsunamis. Prominent, laterally-continuous bands of these tsunami sands are interbedded with silty peats along the bank of the Tirua River, 0.8 to 1.8 km inland from the coast. Based on buried historic artifacts and testimonies of local survivors, the youngest pre-2010 sand sheet was deposited by the 1960 tsunami. Preliminary radiocarbon and OSL ages on the lower two sand layers show temporal overlap with the 1835 earthquake to the north and a large earthquake in southern Chile in AD 1575, which previous research indicates was similar in character and latitudinal extent to the 1960 earthquake. The stratigraphic units dividing the four sand layers repeatedly exhibit a pattern of a basal brownish silty peat that grades upwards to grayish less organic silt and a sharp contact with the next overlying sand layer. We interpret this pattern as possible evidence of coseismic uplift out of the tidal zone, followed by interseismic subsidence. By virtue of its marginal location between historic earthquake rupture zones, the site at Tirua could selectively preserve evidence of the largest earthquakes and tsunamis produced in the 1960 rupture area to the south and the 2010 rupture area to the north.

Tsunami Mapping Related to Local Earthquakes on the French-Italian Riviera (Western Mediterranean)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ioualalen, Mansour; Larroque, Christophe; Scotti, Oona; Daubord, Camille

2014-07-01

The Ligurian coast, located at the French-Italian border, is densely populated as well as a touristic area. It is also a location where earthquakes and underwater landslides are recurrent. The nature of the local tsunamigenesis is therefore a legitimate question, because no tsunami warning system can resolve tsunami arrival times of a few minutes, which is the case for the area. As far as the seismicity of the area is concerned, the frequent recurrent earthquakes are generally of moderate magnitude: most of them are lower than M w 5. However, the relatively large M w 6.9 earthquake (Larroque et al., in Geophys J Int, 2012. doi: 10.1111/j.1365-246X.2012.05498.x) that occurred on the February 23, 1887, offshore of Imperia (Italian Riviera) is quite emblematic. This unusual event for the region merits a complete study: the quantification of its rupture mechanism is essential (1) to understand the regional active deformation, but also (2) to evaluate its tsunamigenesis potential by deriving relevant rupture scenarios obtained from our knowledge of the event; for that purpose the event is extensively described here. The first point has been the subject of quite a few studies based on the seismotectonics of the area. The last documented approach has been completed by Larroque et al. (Geophys J Int, 2012. doi: 10.1111/j.1365-246X.2012.05498.x) who proposed a rupture scenario involving a reverse faulting along a north dipping fault and favoring a M w 6.9 magnitude. In the present paper (1) we study the accuracy of their solutions in relation to the computational grid spacing and the dispersive/nondispersive parameterization, (2) based on an uncertainty on the recorded wave amplitude of the Genoa tide gauge they used, we propose a M w 6.7 earthquake magnitude solution for the event (the kinematics is unchanged), co-existing with the M w 6.9, (3) we evaluate the tsunami coastal impact of the 1887 event, and (4) we test a range of possible ruptures that local faults may undergo in order to propose a synoptic mapping of the tsunami threat in the area. The spatial distribution of the maximum wave height (MWH) is provided with a tentative identification of the processes that are responsible for it. This latter issue is imperative in order to make our mapping as generic as possible in the framework of our deterministic approach (based on realistic scenarios and not on ensemble statistics). The predictions suggest that the wave impact is mostly local, considering the relatively moderate size of the rupture planes. Although the present-day seismicity in this region is moderate, stronger earthquakes ( M > 6.5) have occurred in the past. The studied scenarios show that for such events specific localities along the French-Italian Riviera may experience very significant MWH related to the shallow focal depth tested for such scenarios. We may reasonably conclude that the tsunami threat is relatively significant and uniform at the Italian side of the Riviera (from Ventimiglia to Imperia), while it is more localized (sporadic) at the French side from Antibes to Menton with, however, higher local level of inundation, e.g., Nice city center.

Tsunami Simulations in the Western Makran Using Hypothetical Heterogeneous Source Models from World's Great Earthquakes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rashidi, Amin; Shomali, Zaher Hossein; Keshavarz Farajkhah, Nasser

2018-03-01

The western segment of Makran subduction zone is characterized with almost no major seismicity and no large earthquake for several centuries. A possible episode for this behavior is that this segment is currently locked accumulating energy to generate possible great future earthquakes. Taking into account this assumption, a hypothetical rupture area is considered in the western Makran to set different tsunamigenic scenarios. Slip distribution models of four recent tsunamigenic earthquakes, i.e. 2015 Chile M w 8.3, 2011 Tohoku-Oki M w 9.0 (using two different scenarios) and 2006 Kuril Islands M w 8.3, are scaled into the rupture area in the western Makran zone. The numerical modeling is performed to evaluate near-field and far-field tsunami hazards. Heterogeneity in slip distribution results in higher tsunami amplitudes. However, its effect reduces from local tsunamis to regional and distant tsunamis. Among all considered scenarios for the western Makran, only a similar tsunamigenic earthquake to the 2011 Tohoku-Oki event can re-produce a significant far-field tsunami and is considered as the worst case scenario. The potential of a tsunamigenic source is dominated by the degree of slip heterogeneity and the location of greatest slip on the rupture area. For the scenarios with similar slip patterns, the mean slip controls their relative power. Our conclusions also indicate that along the entire Makran coasts, the southeastern coast of Iran is the most vulnerable area subjected to tsunami hazard.

Tsunami Simulations in the Western Makran Using Hypothetical Heterogeneous Source Models from World's Great Earthquakes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rashidi, Amin; Shomali, Zaher Hossein; Keshavarz Farajkhah, Nasser

2018-04-01

The western segment of Makran subduction zone is characterized with almost no major seismicity and no large earthquake for several centuries. A possible episode for this behavior is that this segment is currently locked accumulating energy to generate possible great future earthquakes. Taking into account this assumption, a hypothetical rupture area is considered in the western Makran to set different tsunamigenic scenarios. Slip distribution models of four recent tsunamigenic earthquakes, i.e. 2015 Chile M w 8.3, 2011 Tohoku-Oki M w 9.0 (using two different scenarios) and 2006 Kuril Islands M w 8.3, are scaled into the rupture area in the western Makran zone. The numerical modeling is performed to evaluate near-field and far-field tsunami hazards. Heterogeneity in slip distribution results in higher tsunami amplitudes. However, its effect reduces from local tsunamis to regional and distant tsunamis. Among all considered scenarios for the western Makran, only a similar tsunamigenic earthquake to the 2011 Tohoku-Oki event can re-produce a significant far-field tsunami and is considered as the worst case scenario. The potential of a tsunamigenic source is dominated by the degree of slip heterogeneity and the location of greatest slip on the rupture area. For the scenarios with similar slip patterns, the mean slip controls their relative power. Our conclusions also indicate that along the entire Makran coasts, the southeastern coast of Iran is the most vulnerable area subjected to tsunami hazard.

Determination of Tsunami Warning Criteria for Current Velocity

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chen, R.; Wang, D.

2015-12-01

Present Tsunami warning issuance largely depends on an event's predicted wave height and inundation depth. Specifically, a warning is issued if the on-shore wave height is greater than 1m. This project examines whether any consideration should be given to current velocity. We apply the idea of force balance to determine theoretical minimum velocity thresholds for injuring people and damaging properties as a function of wave height. Results show that even at a water depth of less than 1m, a current velocity of 2 m/s is enough to pose a threat to humans and cause potential damage to cars and houses. Next, we employ a 1-dimensional shallow water model to simulate Tsunamis with various amplitudes and an assumed wavelength of 250km. This allows for the profiling of current velocity and wave height behavior as the Tsunamis reach shore. We compare this data against our theoretical thresholds to see if any real world scenarios would be dangerous to people and properties. We conclude that for such Tsunamis, the present warning criteria are effective at protecting people against larger events with amplitude greater than ~0.3m. However, for events with amplitude less than ~0.2m, it is possible to have waves less than 1m with current velocity high enough to endanger humans. Thus, the inclusion of current velocity data would help the present Tsunami warning criteria become more robust and efficient, especially for smaller Tsunami events.

Mathematics of tsunami: modelling and identification

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Krivorotko, Olga; Kabanikhin, Sergey

2015-04-01

Tsunami (long waves in the deep water) motion caused by underwater earthquakes is described by shallow water equations ( { ηtt = div (gH (x,y)-gradη), (x,y) ∈ Ω, t ∈ (0,T ); η|t=0 = q(x,y), ηt|t=0 = 0, (x,y) ∈ Ω. ( (1) Bottom relief H(x,y) characteristics and the initial perturbation data (a tsunami source q(x,y)) are required for the direct simulation of tsunamis. The main difficulty problem of tsunami modelling is a very big size of the computational domain (Ω = 500 × 1000 kilometres in space and about one hour computational time T for one meter of initial perturbation amplitude max|q|). The calculation of the function η(x,y,t) of three variables in Ω × (0,T) requires large computing resources. We construct a new algorithm to solve numerically the problem of determining the moving tsunami wave height S(x,y) which is based on kinematic-type approach and analytical representation of fundamental solution. Proposed algorithm of determining the function of two variables S(x,y) reduces the number of operations in 1.5 times than solving problem (1). If all functions does not depend on the variable y (one dimensional case), then the moving tsunami wave height satisfies of the well-known Airy-Green formula: S(x) = S(0)° --- 4H (0)/H (x). The problem of identification parameters of a tsunami source using additional measurements of a passing wave is called inverse tsunami problem. We investigate two different inverse problems of determining a tsunami source q(x,y) using two different additional data: Deep-ocean Assessment and Reporting of Tsunamis (DART) measurements and satellite altimeters wave-form images. These problems are severely ill-posed. The main idea consists of combination of two measured data to reconstruct the source parameters. We apply regularization techniques to control the degree of ill-posedness such as Fourier expansion, truncated singular value decomposition, numerical regularization. The algorithm of selecting the truncated number of singular values of an inverse problem operator which is agreed with the error level in measured data is described and analysed. In numerical experiment we used conjugate gradient method for solving inverse tsunami problems. Gradient methods are based on minimizing the corresponding misfit function. To calculate the gradient of the misfit function, the adjoint problem is solved. The conservative finite-difference schemes for solving the direct and adjoint problems in the approximation of shallow water are constructed. Results of numerical experiments of the tsunami source reconstruction are presented and discussed. We show that using a combination of two types of data allows one to increase the stability and efficiency of tsunami source reconstruction. Non-profit organization WAPMERR (World Agency of Planetary Monitoring and Earthquake Risk Reduction) in collaboration with Institute of Computational Mathematics and Mathematical Geophysics of SB RAS developed the Integrated Tsunami Research and Information System (ITRIS) to simulate tsunami waves and earthquakes, river course changes, coastal zone floods, and risk estimates for coastal constructions at wave run-ups and earthquakes. The special scientific plug-in components are embedded in a specially developed GIS-type graphic shell for easy data retrieval, visualization and processing. We demonstrate the tsunami simulation plug-in for historical tsunami events (2004 Indian Ocean tsunami, Simushir tsunami 2006 and others). This work was supported by the Ministry of Education and Science of the Russian Federation.

Tsunami early warning in the central Mediterranean: effect of the heterogeneity of the seismic source on the timely detectability of a tsunami

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Armigliato, A.; Tinti, S.; Pagnoni, G.; Zaniboni, F.

2012-04-01

The central Mediterranean, and in particular the coasts of southern Italy, is one of the areas with the highest tsunami hazard in Europe. Limiting our attention to earthquake-generated tsunamis, the sources of historical events hitting this region, as well as the largest part of the potential tsunamigenic seismic sources mapped there, are found at very short distances from the closest shorelines, reducing the time needed for the tsunami to attack the coasts themselves to few minutes. This represents by itself an issue from the Tsunami Early Warning (TEW) perspective. To make the overall problem even more intriguing and challenging, it is known that large tsunamigenic earthquakes are generally characterized by highly heterogeneous distributions of the slip on the fault. This feature has been recognized clearly, for instance, in the giant Sumatra 2004, Chile 2010, and Japan 2011 earthquakes (magnitude 9.3, 8.8 and 9.0, respectively), but it was a property also of smaller magnitude events occurred in the region considered in this study, like the 28 December 1908 Messina Straits tsunamigenic earthquake (M=7.2). In terms of tsunami impact, the parent fault slip heterogeneity usually determines a high variability of run-up and inundation on the near-field coasts, which further complicates the TEW problem. The information on the details of the seismic source rupture coming from the seismic (and possibly geodetic) networks, though of primary importance, is typically available after a time that is comparable or larger than the time comprised between the generation and the impact of the tsunami. In the framework of the EU-FP7 TRIDEC Project, we investigate how a proper marine sensors coverage both along the coasts and offshore can help posing constraints on the characteristics of the source in near-real time. Our approach consists in discussing numerical tsunami scenarios in the central Mediterranean involving different slip distributions on the parent fault; the tsunamigenic region we take into consideration is the Hyblaean-Malta escarpment located offshore eastern Sicily, where several large historical tsunamigenic earthquakes took place (e.g. 11 January 1693). Starting from different slip configurations on a chosen fault, we compare the time series of wave elevation simulated for tide gauges placed along the coast and for virtual deep sea sensors placed at different distances from the source area. The final goal is to understand whether a properly designed marine sensor network can help determining in real-time the slip characteristics along the parent fault and hence forecasting the pattern of impact of the tsunami especially along the closest coasts.

Near-Field Tsunami Models with Rapid Earthquake Source Inversions from Land and Ocean-Based Observations: The Potential for Forecast and Warning

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Melgar, D.; Bock, Y.; Crowell, B. W.; Haase, J. S.

2013-12-01

Computation of predicted tsunami wave heights and runup in the regions adjacent to large earthquakes immediately after rupture initiation remains a challenging problem. Limitations of traditional seismological instrumentation in the near field which cannot be objectively employed for real-time inversions and the non-unique source inversion results are a major concern for tsunami modelers. Employing near-field seismic, GPS and wave gauge data from the Mw 9.0 2011 Tohoku-oki earthquake, we test the capacity of static finite fault slip models obtained from newly developed algorithms to produce reliable tsunami forecasts. First we demonstrate the ability of seismogeodetic source models determined from combined land-based GPS and strong motion seismometers to forecast near-source tsunamis in ~3 minutes after earthquake origin time (OT). We show that these models, based on land-borne sensors only tend to underestimate the tsunami but are good enough to provide a realistic first warning. We then demonstrate that rapid ingestion of offshore shallow water (100 - 1000 m) wave gauge data significantly improves the model forecasts and possible warnings. We ingest data from 2 near-source ocean-bottom pressure sensors and 6 GPS buoys into the earthquake source inversion process. Tsunami Green functions (tGFs) are generated using the GeoClaw package, a benchmarked finite volume code with adaptive mesh refinement. These tGFs are used for a joint inversion with the land-based data and substantially improve the earthquake source and tsunami forecast. Model skill is assessed by detailed comparisons of the simulation output to 2000+ tsunami runup survey measurements collected after the event. We update the source model and tsunami forecast and warning at 10 min intervals. We show that by 20 min after OT the tsunami is well-predicted with a high variance reduction to the survey data and by ~30 minutes a model that can be considered final, since little changed is observed afterwards, is achieved. This is an indirect approach to tsunami warning, it relies on automatic determination of the earthquake source prior to tsunami simulation. It is more robust than ad-hoc approaches because it relies on computation of a finite-extent centroid moment tensor to objectively determine the style of faulting and the fault plane geometry on which to launch the heterogeneous static slip inversion. Operator interaction and physical assumptions are minimal. Thus, the approach can provide the initial conditions for tsunami simulation (seafloor motion) irrespective of the type of earthquake source and relies heavily on oceanic wave gauge measurements for source determination. It reliably distinguishes among strike-slip, normal and thrust faulting events, all of which have been observed recently to occur in subduction zones and pose distinct tsunami hazards.

Specification of Tectonic Tsunami Sources Along the Eastern Aleutian Island Arc and Alaska Peninsula for Inundation Mapping and Hazard Assessment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Suleimani, E.; Nicolsky, D.; Freymueller, J. T.; Koehler, R.

2013-12-01

The Alaska Earthquake Information Center conducts tsunami inundation mapping for coastal communities in Alaska along several segments of the Aleutian Megathrust, each having a unique seismic history and tsunami generation potential. Accurate identification and characterization of potential tsunami sources is a critical component of our project. As demonstrated by the 2011 Tohoku-oki tsunami, correct estimation of the maximum size event for a given segment of the subduction zone is particularly important. In that event, unexpectedly large slip occurred approximately updip of the epicenter of the main shock, based on seafloor GPS and seafloor pressure gage observations, generating a much larger tsunami than anticipated. This emphasizes the importance of the detailed knowledge of the region-specific subduction processes, and using the most up-to-date geophysical data and research models that define the magnitude range of possible future tsunami events. Our study area extends from the eastern half of the 1957 rupture zone to Kodiak Island, covering the 1946 and 1938 rupture areas, the Shumagin gap, and the western part of the 1964 rupture area. We propose a strategy for generating worst-case credible tsunami scenarios for locations that have a short or nonexistent paleoseismic/paleotsunami record, and in some cases lack modern seismic and GPS data. The potential tsunami scenarios are built based on a discretized plate interface model fit to the Slab 1.0 model geometry. We employ estimates of slip deficit along the Aleutian Megathrust from GPS campaign surveys, the Slab 1.0 interface surface, empirical magnitude-slip relationships, and a numerical code that distributes slip among the subfault elements, calculates coseismic deformations and solves the shallow water equations of tsunami propagation and runup. We define hypothetical asperities along the megathrust and in down-dip direction, and perform a set of sensitivity model runs to identify coseismic deformation patterns resulting in highest runup at a given community. Because of the extra fine discretization of the interface, we can prescribe variable slip patterns, using simple parameters to describe slip variations in the along-strike and down-dip directions. Since it was demonstrated by studies of the 1964 tsunami that changes in slip distribution result in significant variations in the local tsunami wave field, we expect that the near-field tsunami runup in target communities will be highly sensitive to variability of slip along the rupture area. We perform simulations for each source scenario using AEIC's numerical model of tsunami propagation and runup, which is validated through a set of analytical benchmarks and tested against laboratory and field data. Results of numerical modeling combined with historical observations are compiled on inundation maps and used for site-specific tsunami hazard assessment by local emergency planners.

Quantification of tsunami hazard on Canada's Pacific Coast; implications for risk assessment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Evans, Stephen G.; Delaney, Keith B.

2015-04-01

Our assessment of tsunami hazard on Canada's Pacific Coast (i.e., the coast of British Columbia) begins with a review of the 1964 tsunami generated by The Great Alaska Earthquake (M9.2) that resulted in significant damage to coastal communities and infrastructure. In particular, the tsunami waves swept up inlets on the west coast of Vancouver Island and damaged several communities; Port Alberni suffered upwards of 5M worth of damage. At Port Alberni, the maximum tsunami wave height was estimated at 8.2 m above mean sea level and was recorded on the stream gauge on the Somass River located at about 7 m a.s.l, 6 km upstream from its mouth. The highest wave (9.75 m above tidal datum) was reported from Shields Bay, Graham Island, Queen Charlotte Islands (Haida Gwaii). In addition, the 1964 tsunami was recorded on tide gauges at a number of locations on the BC coast. The 1964 signal and the magnitude and frequency of traces of other historical Pacific tsunamis (both far-field and local) are analysed in the Tofino tide gauge records and compared to tsunami traces in other tide gauges in the Pacific Basin (e.g., Miyako, Japan). Together with a review of the geological evidence for tsunami occurrence along Vancouver Island's west coast, we use this tide gauge data to develop a quantitative framework for tsunami hazard on Canada's Pacific coast. In larger time scales, tsunamis are a major component of the hazard from Cascadia megathrust events. From sedimentological evidence and seismological considerations, the recurrence interval of megathrust events on the Cascadia Subduction Zone has been estimated by others at roughly 500 years. We assume that the hazard associated with a high-magnitude destructive tsunami thus has an annual frequency of roughly 1/500. Compared to other major natural hazards in western Canada this represents a very high annual probability of potentially destructive hazard that, in some coastal communities, translates into high levels of local risk including life-loss risk. Our analysis further indicates that in terms of life-loss risk, communities on Canada's Pacific Coast that are exposed to high tsunami hazard, experience the highest natural risk in Canada. Although sparsely populated, the (outer) coast of British Columbia has important critical infrastructure that includes port developments, shoreline facilities related to forest resource exploitation, a large number of First Nations Reserves, small municipal centres, towns, and villages, (some of which are ecotourism and sport fishing centres), and a limited number of industrial facilities. For selected areas on the west coast of Vancouver Island inundation maps have been prepared for a range of tsunami scenarios. We find that key facilities and critical infrastructure are exposed to the hazards associated with tsunami inundation.

Rapid inundation estimates at harbor scale using tsunami wave heights offshore simulation and coastal amplification laws

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gailler, A.; Loevenbruck, A.; Hebert, H.

2013-12-01

Numerical tsunami propagation and inundation models are well developed and have now reached an impressive level of accuracy, especially in locations such as harbors where the tsunami waves are mostly amplified. In the framework of tsunami warning under real-time operational conditions, the main obstacle for the routine use of such numerical simulations remains the slowness of the numerical computation, which is strengthened when detailed grids are required for the precise modeling of the coastline response of an individual harbor. Thus only tsunami offshore propagation modeling tools using a single sparse bathymetric computation grid are presently included within the French Tsunami Warning Center (CENALT), providing rapid estimation of tsunami warning at western Mediterranean and NE Atlantic basins scale. We present here a preliminary work that performs quick estimates of the inundation at individual harbors from these high sea forecasting tsunami simulations. The method involves an empirical correction based on theoretical amplification laws (either Green's or Synolakis laws). The main limitation is that its application to a given coastal area would require a large database of previous observations, in order to define the empirical parameters of the correction equation. As no such data (i.e., historical tide gage records of significant tsunamis) are available for the western Mediterranean and NE Atlantic basins, we use a set of synthetic mareograms, calculated for both fake and well-known historical tsunamigenic earthquakes in the area. This synthetic dataset is obtained through accurate numerical tsunami propagation and inundation modeling by using several nested bathymetric grids of increasingly fine resolution close to the shores (down to a grid cell size of 3m in some Mediterranean harbors). Non linear shallow water tsunami modeling performed on a single 2' coarse bathymetric grid are compared to the values given by time-consuming nested grids simulations (and observation when available), in order to check to which extent the simple approach based on the amplification laws can explain the data. The idea is to fit tsunami data with numerical modeling carried out without any refined coastal bathymetry/topography. To this end several parameters are discussed, namely the bathymetric depth to which model results must be extrapolated (using the Green's law), or the mean bathymetric slope to consider near the studied coast (when using the Synolakis law).

The February 27, 2010 Chile Tsunami - Sedimentology of runup and backflow deposits at Isla Mocha

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bahlburg, H.; Spiske, M.

2010-12-01

On February 27, 2010, at 3:34 am local time, an earthquake with Mw 8.8 occurred off the town of Constitución in Central Chile and caused a major tsunami beween Valaparaiso (c. 33°S) and Tirua (c. 38°S). Maximum runup heights of up to 10 m were measured on coastal plains. The cliff coast at Tirua recorded a runup height between 30 m and 40 m. Considering past tsunami events, respective deposits may be the only observable evidence, even though their preservation potential is limited. To understand how tsunami deposits form and how they can be identified in the geological record, it is of paramount importance to undertake detailed studies in the wake of such events. Here we report initial field data of a sedimentological post-tsunami field survey undertaken in Central Chile between March 31 and April 18, 2010. At selected localities we measured detailed topographic profiles including runup heights and inundation distances, and recorded the thickness, distribution and sedimentological features of the respective tsunami deposits, as well as erosional features caused by the tsunami. We found the most instructive and complete sedimentological record of the February 27, 2010 tsunami at the northern tip of Isla Mocha, a small island off the Chilean coast at c. 28.15°S. Runup distances vary between 400 m and 600 m, the flow depth exceeded 3 m at ca. 100 m from the coast. Runup heights reached up to 21 m above sea level. In a rare sedimentological case, deposits of tsunami runup and backwash could be distinguished. The runup phase was mainly documented by fields of boulders extending c. 360 m inland. Boulders had maximum weights of 12 t. They were oriented with their long axis parallel to the coast and the wave front. Algal veneers and barnacles on the boulder faces give evidence of entrainment in intertidal water depths. The boulders are now embedded in mostly structureless coarse shelly sand. These sands were originally entrained during near shore supratidal erosion of coastal plain terraces by the tsunami and transported inland during runup. Flow structures indicate that the sands were then re-deposited during backwash. Downcurrent of terrace steps the tsunami backwash produced large erosional gullies. The backwash deposits occur either as widespread covers blanketing microtopography consisting of dark pre-tsunami soils, or as depositional fans which prograde seaward over soils free of a sediment cover. The coarse to very coarse shell debris is comprised of fragmented or entire mollusk and crab cascs. Some coarser deposits also contain significant amounts of Tertiary sandstone bedrock gravels in parts freshly eroded by the tsunami. The deposits are either massive or imbricated, the imbrication identifying them as a product of backflow currents. The deposit thickness is commonly c. 10 to 15 cm. Around large boulders backflow partitioning and associated erosion and deposition permitted the generation of 0.8 m deep scours and accumulation of up to 80 cm thick backflow sands. The depositional angles at the fan fronts vary between 27° and 36°. Backflow fan surfaces are characterized by channel and overbank regions and flow structures like current ripples. Clusters of bedrock pebbles and mollusk cascs are distributed irregularly over the fan surfaces.

Advancing our understanding of the onshore propagation of tsunami bores over rough surfaces through numerical modeling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Marras, S.; Suckale, J.; Eguzkitza, B.; Houzeaux, G.; Vázquez, M.; Lesage, A. C.

2016-12-01

The propagation of tsunamis in the open ocean has been studied in detail with many excellent numerical approaches available to researchers. Our understanding of the processes that govern the onshore propagation of tsunamis is less advanced. Yet, the reach of tsunamis on land is an important predictor of the damage associated with a given event, highlighting the need to investigate the factors that govern tsunami propagation onshore. In this study, we specifically focus on understanding the effect of bottom roughness at a variety of scales. The term roughness is to be understood broadly, as it represents scales ranging from small features like rocks, to vegetation, up to the size of larger structures and topography. In this poster, we link applied mathematics, computational fluid dynamics, and tsunami physics to analyze the small scales features of coastal hydrodynamics and the effect of roughness on the motion of tsunamis as they run up a sloping beach and propagate inland. We solve the three-dimensional Navier-Stokes equations of incompressible flows with free surface, which is tracked by a level set function in combination with an accurate re-distancing scheme. We discretize the equations via linear finite elements for space approximation and fully implicit time integration. Stabilization is achieved via the variational multiscale method whereas the subgrid scales for our large eddy simulations are modeled using a dynamically adaptive Smagorinsky eddy viscosity. As the geometrical characteristics of roughness in this study vary greatly across different scales, we implement a scale-dependent representation of the roughness elements. We model the smallest sub-grid scale roughness features by the use of a properly defined law of the wall. Furthermore, we utilize a Manning formula to compute the shear stress at the boundary. As the geometrical scales become larger, we resolve the geometry explicitly and compute the effective volume drag introduced by large scale immersed bodies. This study is a necessary step to verify and validate our model before proceeding further into the simulation of sediment transport in turbulent free surface flows. The simulation of such problems requires a space and time-dependent viscosity to model the effect of solid bodies transported by the incoming flow on onshore tsunami propagation.

A deep scar in the flank of Tenerife (Canary Islands): Geophysical contribution to tsunami hazard assessment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Coppo, Nicolas P.; Schnegg, Pierre-André; Falco, Pierik; Costa, Roberto

2009-05-01

Among the high-intensity on-Earth tsunami generating events, seismicity, submarine landslides, and volcano lateral collapses are the most important [Ward, S.H., 2001. Landslide tsunami. J. Geophy. Res. 106, 11201-11215; Holcomb, R.T., Searle, R.C., 1991. Large landslides from oceanic volcanoes. Mar. Geotech. 10, 19-32; Tinti, S., Bortolucci, E., Romagnoli, C., 2000. Computer simulations of tsunamis due to the sector collapse ar Stromboli, Italy. J. Volcano. Geotherm. Res. 96, 103-128; Ward, S.N., Day, S., 2003. Ritter Island Volcano — lateral collapse and the tsunami of 1888. Geophys. J. Int. 154, 891-902; MacGuire, W.J., 2003. Volcano instability and lateral collapse. Revista 1, 33-45]. Offshore bathymetry studies highlighted huge accumulations of large mass-waste flows (up to thousands cubic kilometres) inherited from past lateral collapses or submarine landslides [ Le Friant, A., Boudon, G., Deplus, C., Villemant, B., 2003. Large-scale flank collapse events during the activity of Montagne Pelée, Martinique, Lesser Antilles. J. Geophys. Res. 108, ECV13; Moore, J.G. et al., 1989. Prodigious submarine Landslides on the Hawaiian ridge. J. Geophys. Res. 94, 17465-17484] which spread over more than 100 km off the northern Tenerife (Canary Islands) coastline [Watts, A.B., Masson, D.G., 1995. A giant landslide on the north flank of Tenerife, Canary Islands. J. Geophys. Res. 100, 24487-24498]. Although mechanics and dynamics triggering such catastrophic events follow from combined complex processes and interactions [Hürlimann, M., Garcia-Piera, J.-O., Ledesma, A., 2000. Causes and mobility of large volcanic landslides: application to Tenerife, Canary Islands. J. Volcano. Geotherm. Res. 103, 121-134; Masson, D.G. et al., 2002. Slope failures on the flanks of the western Canary Islands. Earth-Sci. Rev. 57, 1-35; Reid, M.E., Sisson, T.W., Brien, D.L., 2001. Volcano collapse promoted by hydrothermal alteration and edifice shape, Mount Rainier, Washington. Geology 29, 779-782], potential movable volume is an unavoidable parameter to quantify and constrain tsunamigenic hazard. Numerical modelling of a tsunami generated by the potential La Palma landslide concluded that high amplitude waves threaten North Atlantic shorelines [Ward, S.N., Day, S.J., 2001. Cumbre Vieja volcano — Potential collapse and tsunami at La Palma, Canary Islands. Geophys. Res. Lett. 28, 397-400]. New audiomagnetotelluric results provide for the first time a good estimation of the Icod Valley (Tenerife, Canary Islands) volume, a potential giant landslide threatening the same shorelines. Two profiles image its electrically conductive roots with a characteristic of a U-shaped cross-section thought to be the consequence of previous landslides. By this study, we show that North Atlantic Ocean shorelines might be exposed to a destructive tsunami generated by a subaerial lateral collapse of at least 120 km 3 during the next strong felsic eruptive activity of the Teide-Pico Viejo complex. This article highlights the degree of urgency of carrying out geophysical investigations on the flanks of most volcanic islands prone to potential flank collapse. These investigations will contribute to the understanding of their structure — a key parameter in the sliding process. Finally, all results should be included in model, providing a global map of tsunami hazard assessment.

Multiple paleotsunamis inferred from a single coral boulder (Invited)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Goto, K.; Nakamura, N.; Sato, T.; Hisamatsu, A.

2013-12-01

Tsunami boulders are important geological evidence of paleotsunamis. Recent advance in field observation, laboratory analyses and numerical modeling on coastal boulders have greatly improved our knowledge regarding to their depositional process. For example, in the southern Ryukyu Islands, Japan, radiocarbon dating of many coral boulders were performed and the recurrence interval of the paleotsunamis was estimated [Araoka et al., 2013 Geology]. Their preferential distributions in specific area would also suggest local occurrence of tsunamigenic earthquakes [Goto et al., 2013 Geology]. These types of works can be conducted at the place where many boulders exist and any type of dating methods are applicable to estimate their depositional ages. On the other hand, there are many isolated boulders in the world and their depositional ages were sometimes uncertain. Therefore, it is highly required developing a methodology to use such isolated boulders not just to use it as evidence of paleotsunamis but to know more details such as timing and size of tsunami. In order to overcome this issue, we introduce an advanced methodology based on the paleomagnetism as well as the numerical modeling. Rocks possess a remanent magnetization parallel to the Earth's magnetic field at the time of rock formation. When boulders are rotated or overturned by the paleotsunami from their original locations, a new component of viscous remanent magnetization (VRM) is added on an original component parallel to the Earth's magnetic field. The VRM acquired at low temperature during a long time scale in nature can be demagnetized at high temperature in a short time in laboratory. Therefore, the demagnetizing (unblocking) temperature of VRM gives a transportation mode and also its timing for the transportation histories from a single boulder [Sato et al., 2013 AOGS abstract]. We applied this method to a large coral boulder at 10 m in elevation at Ishigaki Island, Japan, which was deposited around 2000BP according to the radiocarbon dating [e.g., Goto et al., 2010 Earth-Science Reviews]. The Ishigaki Island was frequently affected by large tsunamis in the past including the recent AD1771 event (~30 m in run-up height) but this boulder was probably not moved by the AD1771 tsunami according to the interpretation of historical document. It is interesting to note that magnetic analyses revealed that this boulder was rotated twice prior to the AD1771 event. Numerical modeling for boulder transport further revealed that one large tsunami whose size is equivalent to the AD1771 event is insufficient to deposit this boulder to its present position from the presumed original position. However, if another tsunami with same size further affected to this boulder, which was once reached to the shore by the former tsunami, then it was reached close to the present position [Hisamatsu et al., 2013 AGU abstract]. Combining the results obtained from paleomagnetic analysis and numerical modeling, we infer that multiple large tsunamis including the AD1771 event was probably occurred during last 2000BP at Ishigaki Island based only on the analyses of this single coral boulder. Although further improvement is required, our methodology may be applied to many possible paleotsunami boulders in the world including isolated ones to unravel their transportation histories that may imply the number and size of tsunamis affected to the boulder in the past.

Numerical simulation of tsunami generation by cold volcanic mass flows at Augustine Volcano, Alaska

USGS Publications Warehouse

Waythomas, C.F.; Watts, P.; Walder, J.S.

2006-01-01

Many of the world's active volcanoes are situated on or near coastlines. During eruptions, diverse geophysical mass flows, including pyroclastic flows, debris avalanches, and lahars, can deliver large volumes of unconsolidated debris to the ocean in a short period of time and thereby generate tsunamis. Deposits of both hot and cold volcanic mass flows produced by eruptions of Aleutian arc volcanoes are exposed at many locations along the coastlines of the Bering Sea, North Pacific Ocean, and Cook Inlet, indicating that the flows entered the sea and in some cases may have initiated tsunamis. We evaluate the process of tsunami generation by cold granular subaerial volcanic mass flows using examples from Augustine Volcano in southern Cook Inlet. Augustine Volcano is the most historically active volcano in the Cook Inlet region, and future eruptions, should they lead to debris-avalanche formation and tsunami generation, could be hazardous to some coastal areas. Geological investigations at Augustine Volcano suggest that as many as 12-14 debris avalanches have reached the sea in the last 2000 years, and a debris avalanche emplaced during an A.D. 1883 eruption may have initiated a tsunami that was observed about 80 km east of the volcano at the village of English Bay (Nanwalek) on the coast of the southern Kenai Peninsula. Numerical simulation of mass-flow motion, tsunami generation, propagation, and inundation for Augustine Volcano indicate only modest wave generation by volcanic mass flows and localized wave effects. However, for east-directed mass flows entering Cook Inlet, tsunamis are capable of reaching the more populated coastlines of the southwestern Kenai Peninsula, where maximum water amplitudes of several meters are possible.

The great 1933 Sanriku-oki earthquake: reappraisal of the main shock and its aftershocks and implications for its tsunami using regional tsunami and seismic data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Uchida, Naoki; Kirby, Stephen H.; Umino, Norihito; Hino, Ryota; Kazakami, Tomoe

2016-09-01

The aftershock distribution of the 1933 Sanriku-oki outer trench earthquake is estimated by using modern relocation methods and a newly developed velocity structure to examine the spatial extent of the source-fault and the possibility of a triggered interplate seismicity. In this study, we first examined the regional data quality of the 1933 earthquake based on smoked-paper records and then relocated the earthquakes by using the 3-D velocity structure and double-difference method. The improvements of hypocentre locations using these methods were confirmed by the examination of recent earthquakes that are accurately located based on ocean bottom seismometer data. The results show that the 1933 aftershocks occurred under both the outer- and inner-trench-slope regions. In the outer-trench-slope region, aftershocks are distributed in a ˜280-km-long area and their depths are shallower than 50 km. Although we could not constrain the fault geometry from the hypocentre distribution, the depth distribution suggests the whole lithosphere is probably not under deviatoric tension at the time of the 1933 earthquake. The occurrence of aftershocks under the inner trench slope was also confirmed by an investigation of waveform frequency difference between outer and inner trench earthquakes as recorded at Mizusawa. The earthquakes under the inner trench slope were shallow (depth ≦30 km) and the waveforms show a low-frequency character similar to the waveforms of recent, precisely located earthquakes in the same area. They are also located where recent activity of interplate thrust earthquakes is high. These suggest that the 1933 outer-trench-slope main shock triggered interplate earthquakes, which is an unusual case in the order of occurrence in contrast with the more common pairing of a large initial interplate shock with subsequent outer-slope earthquakes. The off-trench earthquakes are distributed about 80 km width in the trench perpendicular direction. This wide width cannot be explained from a single high-angle fault confined at a shallow depth (depth ≦50 km). The upward motion of the 1933 tsunami waveform records observed at Sanriku coast also cannot be explained from a single high-angle west-dipping normal fault. If we consider additional fault, involvement of high-angle, east-dipping normal faults can better explain the tsunami first motion and triggering of the aftershock in a wide area under the outer trench slope. Therefore multiple off-trench normal faults may have activated during the 1933 earthquake. We also relocated recent (2001-2012) seismicity by the same method. The results show that the present seismicity in the outer-trench-slope region can be divided into several groups along the trench. Comparison of the 1933 rupture dimensions based on our aftershock relocations with the morphologies of fault scarps in the outer trench slope suggest that the rupture was limited to the region where fault scarps are largely trench parallel and cross cut the seafloor spreading fabric. These findings imply that bending geometry and structural segmentation of the incoming plate largely controls the spatial extent of the 1933 seismogenic faulting. In this shallow rupture model for this largest outer trench earthquake, triggered seismicity in the forearc and structural control of faulting represent an important deformation styles for off-trench and shallow megathrust zones.

The Solomon Islands Tsunami of 6 February 2013 in the Santa Cruz Islands: Field Survey and Modeling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fritz, Hermann M.; Papantoniou, Antonios; Biukoto, Litea; Albert, Gilly; Wei, Yong

2014-05-01

On February 6, 2013 at 01:12:27 UTC (local time: UTC+11), a magnitude Mw 8.0 earthquake occurred 70 km to the west of Ndendo Island (Santa Cruz Island) in the Solomon Islands. The under-thrusting earthquake near a 90° bend, where the Australian plate subducts beneath the Pacific plate generated a locally focused tsunami in the Coral Sea and the South Pacific Ocean. The tsunami claimed the lives of 10 people and injured 15, destroyed 588 houses and partially damaged 478 houses, affecting 4,509 people in 1,066 households corresponding to an estimated 37% of the population of Santa Cruz Island. A multi-disciplinary international tsunami survey team (ITST) was deployed within days of the event to document flow depths, runup heights, inundation distances, sediment and coral boulder depositions, land level changes, damage patterns at various scales, performance of the man-made infrastructure and impact on the natural environment. The 19 to 23 February 2013 ITST covered 30 locations on 4 Islands: Ndendo (Santa Cruz), Tomotu Noi (Lord Howe), Nea Tomotu (Trevanion, Malo) and Tinakula. The reconnaissance completely circling Ndendo and Tinakula logged 240 km by small boat and additionally covered 20 km of Ndendo's hard hit western coastline by vehicle. The collected survey data includes more than 80 tsunami runup and flow depth measurements. The tsunami impact peaked at Manoputi on Ndendo's densely populated west coast with maximum tsunami height exceeding 11 m and local flow depths above ground exceeding 7 m. A fast tide-like positive amplitude of 1 m was recorded at Lata wharf inside Graciosa Bay on Ndendo Island and misleadingly reported in the media as representative tsunami height. The stark contrast between the field observations on exposed coastlines and the Lata tide gauge recording highlights the importance of rapid tsunami reconnaissance surveys. Inundation distance and damage more than 500 m inland were recorded at Lata airport on Ndendo Island. Landslides were observed on volcanic Tinakula Island and on Ndendo Island. Observations from the 2013 Santa Cruz tsunami are compared against the 2007 and 2010 Solomon Islands tsunamis. The field observations in the Santa Cruz Islands present an important dataset to assess tsunami impact in the near-source region. The tsunami was also recorded at deep-ocean tsunameters and tide gauges throughout the Pacific. These observations allow us to further investigate the physics of tsunami generation caused by the seismic process (or other non-seismic mechanisms). We use numerical model MOST to analyze the large runup and complex impact distribution caused by the Santa Cruz tsunami. Source models obtained using seismic data / tsunami data are carried out to initialize the tsunami model. MOST uses two sets of numerical grids to investigate both the near- and far-field aspects of the tsunami. The basin-scale modeling results are computed using a spatial resolution of 4 arc min (approx. 7,200 m) and compared with measurements at deep-ocean tsunameters. The near-field modeling is carried out using a series of telescoped grids up to a grid resolution of tens of meters to compare with the tsunami runup and flooding extent obtained through the field survey in the Solomon Islands. The modeling results emphasize the contrast between the tsunami impact on the exposed coastline and the sheltered Lata Bay stressing the problematic interpretation of a tsunami in progress based solely on near-source tide-gauge measurements. The team also interviewed eyewitnesses and educated residents about the tsunami hazard in numerous ad hoc presentations and discussions. The combination of ancestral knowledge and recent Solomon Islands wide geohazards education programs triggered an immediate spontaneous self-evacuation containing the death toll in the small evacuation window of few minutes between the end of the ground shaking and the onslaught of the tsunami. Fortunately school children were shown a video on the 1 April 2007 Solomon Islands tsunami 3 months prior to the Santa Cruz event and the headmaster of the school at Venga evacuated the later flooded school already during a foreshock. On Tomotu Noi Island at Bamoi the residents evacuated inland towards a crocodile infested lake, which was not reached by the tsunami inundation. Community-based education and awareness programs are particularly essential to help save lives in locales at risk from near-source tsunamis.

REASSESSMENT OF TSUNAMI HAZARD IN THE CITY OF IQUIQUE, CHILE, AFTER THE PISAGUA EARTHQUAKE OF APRIL 2014 In the present contribution, we will reassess the tsunami hazard for the North of Chile taking into account the occurrence of the recent events, focusing on the potential tsunami impact that a worse case scenario could produce in the city of Iquique.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cienfuegos, R.; Suarez, L.; Aránguiz, R.; Gonzalez, G.; González-Carrasco, J. F.; Catalan, P. A.; Dominguez, J. C.; Tomita, T.

2014-12-01

On April 1st2014 a 8.1 Mw Earthquake occurred at 23:46:50 UTC (20:46:50 local time) with its epicenter located off the coast of Pisagua, 68 km north of the city of Iquique (An et al., 2014). The potential risk of earthquake and tsunami in this area was widely recognized by the scientific community (Chlieh et al., 2004). Nevertheless, the energy released by this earthquake and the associated slip distribution was much less than expected. In the present contribution, we will reassess the tsunami hazard for the North of Chile taking into account the occurrence of the recent events, focusing on the potential impact that a worse case scenario could produce in the city of Iquique. For that purpose, an updated tsunami source will be derived using updated information on the seismic and co-seismic tectonic displacements that is available from historical, geological information, and the dense GPS and seismometer networks available in the North of Chile. The updated tsunami source will be used to generate initial conditions for a tsunami and analyze the following aspects: i) large scale hydrodynamics, ii) arrival times, maximum flow depths, and inundation area, iii) potential impact on the port of Iquique, and more specifically on the container's drift that the tsunami could produce. This analysis is essential to reassess tsunami hazard in Iquique, evaluate evacuation plans and mitigation options regarding the port operation. Tsunami propagation and inundation will be conducted using the STOC model (Tomita and Honda, 2010), and a high resolution Lidar topographic database. ReferencesAn, C. et al. (2014). Tsunami source and its validation of the 2014 Iquique, Chile Earthquake, Geophys. Res. Lett., 41, doi:10.1002/2014GL060567. Chlieh, et al. (2004). Crustal deformation and fault slip during the seismic cycle in the north Chile subduction zone, from GPS and INSAR observations, Geophys J. Int., 158(2), 695-711, 10.1111/j.1365-246X.2004.02326.x. Tomita, T., & Honda, K. (2010). Practical model to estimate drift motion of vessels by tsunami with consideration of colliding with structures and stranding. Proceedings of the 32nd Conference on Coastal Engineering. ASCE.

Environmental impact assessment of the 2011 Tohoku-oki tsunami on the Sendai Plain

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chagué-Goff, Catherine; Niedzielski, Przemyslaw; Wong, Henri K. Y.; Szczuciński, Witold; Sugawara, Daisuke; Goff, James

2012-12-01

Large areas of farmland in the Sendai Plain, Japan, were inundated by the 11 March 2011 Tohoku-oki tsunami and covered by a discontinuous 30-0.2 cm thick sediment layer consisting of sand and/or mud and generally thinning and fining inland. Two months after the tsunami, numerous rice paddy fields and depressions remained ponded with brackish or saline water. A series of field surveys in May, August and October 2011 were carried out north of Sendai airport, in order to assess the environmental impact of the tsunami. While evaporation had resulted in elevated conductivity in ponded water in May (up to 68.2 mS cm- 1), rainfall over the next five months led to dilution, although brackish water was still recorded in depressions and on paddy fields. Tsunami sediments, underlying soil and soil beyond the tsunami inundation limit were collected at 43 sites along and near a transect extending over 5 km inland, and analysed for grain size, organic content, water leachable ions, acid leachable metals and exchangeable metalloids. Water leachable anion and cation concentrations were elevated in sandy and muddy tsunami deposits and soils particularly in areas, where seawater had stagnated for a longer period of time after the tsunami, with up to 10.5% Cl, 6.6% Na, 2.8% SO4, 440 mg kg- 1 Br measured in surface sediments (< 0.5 cm depth). Vertical variations were also recorded, with higher concentrations often measured in the surface samples. A similar trend could be observed for some of the metalloids (As) and metals (Zn, Cu and Ni), although in general, maximum concentrations of metals and metalloids were not much higher than in soils not inundated by the tsunami and were within background levels for uncontaminated Japanese soils. The impact of saltwater inundation was documented in the chemistry of soils underlying tsunami sediments, which were affected by salt contamination down to ~ 15 cm depth, and soils not covered by tsunami deposits. The latter implies that the extent of tsunami inundation may successfully be determined using geochemical markers in absence of any sedimentological evidence. Water leachable ions mostly decreased over time, however, they remained high enough to impact on rice farming, which was completely halted in 2011. Although further work is required to assess the longer term impact of tsunami inundation, flushing of salt with freshwater, as well as the possible removal of sandy/muddy sediments and underlying soil are recommended to allow crop production to resume.

New contributions to the debate on the cause of the January 11th, 1693 tsunami in eastern Sicily (Italy): earthquake or offshore landslide source (or may be both)?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Armigliato, A.; Tinti, S.; Zaniboni, F.; Pagnoni, G.; Argnani, A.

2007-12-01

Eastern Sicily is among the most exposed regions in Italy and in the whole Mediterranean to tsunami hazard and risk. The historical tsunamis recorded here were generally associated to moderate-to-large magnitude earthquakes. The largest tsunami documented in the area occurred on January 11th, 1693. It followed the highest-magnitude earthquake (7.4) of the Italian seismic history. The tsunami, whose first significant motion was a retreat along the entire eastern Sicily coastline, produced the most devastating effects at Augusta (15 meters run-up) and Catania, being relevant at Siracusa and Messina too. A lively debate exists on whether the earthquake was the only source of the tsunami, or other causes (such as submarine landslides, possibly triggered by the earthquake) contributed to the tsunami generation. In the framework of the EC funded project TRANSFER, we investigate both hypotheses, starting from suitable onshore and offshore faults as well as from offshore landslide bodies, and hence simulating numerically the ensuing tsunami and comparing the results with the available historical information. We base on the results obtained during recent offshore surveys, in particular the multichannel seismic survey MESC2001, carried out in year 2001 on board the R/V Urania of the Italian National Council of Researches (CNR), which mapped both active normal faults and a number of possible landslide bodies along the Hyblaean-Malta escarpment, the most prominent tectonic structure found just few kilometres offshore eastern Sicily. From the modelling point of view, the initial condition for the earthquake- generated tsunamis coincides with the vertical coseismic deformation of the seafloor. Instead, the landslide motion is simulated through the Lagrangian block model UBO-BLOCK2, developed at the University of Bologna. Finally, the finite-element code UBO-TSUFE, implemented by the same research team, is used to simulate the tsunami generation and propagation. The main conclusions are: 1) if the earthquake is postulated to be the only responsible for the tsunami, then the historical information can be reproduced only by assuming an offshore tectonic source; 2) taking into account the largest of the mapped landslides, we are able to reproduce quite satisfactorily both the first polarity and the size distribution of the tsunami; 3) we cannot rule out the idea that there was a concurrent contribution of the earthquake and of the landslide in generating the tsunami.

Tsunami Stratigraphy in a Coastal Salt Pond, St. Croix, US Virgin Islands

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Russell, P.; Browning, T. N.; Brooks, G.; Larson, R. A.; Cook, A.; Sawyer, D. E.

2017-12-01

The Caribbean has significant exposure to tsunamis from multiple sources, such as earthquakes, volcanoes, and landslides. Due to the limited historical record in the region, paleotsunami deposits provide important information about the size, location, and sources of these events. In turn, these data inform the public and policymakers about the tsunamigenic threat to their communities. A key challenge is that tsunami deposits are often poorly preserved. However, a good candidate for high preservation potential are coastal salt ponds commonly found on the perimeter of tropical islands. The US Virgin Islands has both high susceptibility to tsunamis and large, low lying salt ponds. The most prominent historical example of a tsunami in the US Virgin Islands is the 1867 event which caused widespread devastation throughout the region, including Puerto Rico. One of the hardest hit locations was Frederiksted, on the western end of St. Croix, US Virgin Islands with 7m runups that beached the USS Monongahela. Frederiksted is also in close proximity to a large coastal salt pond. We targeted this, and older, events by collecting a series of sediment cores at four sites in the salt pond during a summer 2017 field campaign. At each location we acquired a 3" aluminum core and a 4" acrylic companion core to core refusal, which most often occurred at a impenetrable horizon. Maximum core recovery was .79m and the average was .54m. Each 4" core was extruded in 1cm intervals and used to determine grain size, total carbon content, and age dating via radioisotope dating. The 3" core was scanned in a X-Ray CT Lab, split, described, and samples from key layers were targeted for detailed sedimentological analyses. The defining stratigraphic sequence is fine-grained muds interspersed with coarse-grained units that exhibit a fining-upwards trend and contained a variety of marine debris, which we infer to represent tsunami or tropical storm event deposits. However, each core did not exhibit the same stratigraphic sequence, suggesting that core location is highly important to accurately establishing the tsunami record. Further analyses will constrain age and stratigraphic control.

Effects of a Major Tsunami on the Energetics and Dynamics of the Thermosphere

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hickey, M. P.; Walterscheid, R. L.; Schubert, G.

2009-12-01

Using a spectral full-wave model we investigate how the energetics and dynamics of the thermosphere are influenced by the dissipation of a tsunami-driven gravity wave disturbance. Gravity waves are generated in the model by a surface displacement that mimics a tsunami having a characteristic horizontal wavelength of 400 km and a horizontal phase speed of 200 m/s. The gravity wave disturbance is fast with a large vertical wavelength and is able to reach F-region altitudes before significant viscous dissipation occurs. The gravity wave transports significant amounts of energy and momentum to this region of the atmosphere. The energy reaching the lower thermosphere could be ~ 1012 J for large tsunami events. The change in velocity associated with the wave momentum deposition in a region ~ 100 km deep centered on 250 km altitude could be 150 - 200 m/s. Thermal effects associated with the divergence of the sensible heat flux are modest (~ 20 K over the same region). The affected region could have a lateral extent of 1000 km or more, and an along-track extent of as much as 8000 km. The induced winds should be observable through a variety of methods but the thermal effects might be difficult to observe.

Sensitivity of Tsunami Waves and Coastal Inundation/Runup to Seabed Displacement Models: Application to the Cascadia Subduction zone

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jalali Farahani, R.; Fitzenz, D. D.; Nyst, M.

2015-12-01

Major components of tsunami hazard modeling include earthquake source characterization, seabed displacement, wave propagation, and coastal inundation/run-up. Accurate modeling of these components is essential to identify the disaster risk exposures effectively, which would be crucial for insurance industry as well as policy makers to have tsunami resistant design of structures and evacuation planning (FEMA, 2008). In this study, the sensitivity and variability of tsunami coastal inundation due to Cascadia megathrust subduction earthquake are studied by considering the different approaches for seabed displacement model. The first approach is the analytical expressions that were proposed by Okada (1985, 1992) for the surface displacements and strains of rectangular sources. The second approach was introduced by Meade (2006) who introduced analytical solutions for calculating displacements, strains, and stresses on triangular sources. In this study, the seabed displacement using triangular representation of geometrically complex fault surfaces is compared with the Okada rectangular representations for the Cascadia subduction zone. In the triangular dislocation algorithm, the displacement is calculated using superposition of two angular dislocations for each of the three triangle legs. The triangular elements could give a better and gap-free representation of the fault surfaces. In addition, the rectangular representation gives large unphysical vertical displacement along the shallow-depth fault edge that generates unrealistic short-wavelength waves. To study the impact of these two different algorithms on the final tsunami inundation, the initial tsunami wave as well as wave propagation and the coastal inundation are simulated. To model the propagation of tsunami waves and coastal inundation, 2D shallow water equations are modeled using the seabed displacement as the initial condition for the numerical model. Tsunami numerical simulation has been performed on high-resolution bathymetric/topographic computational grids to identify accurate tsunami impact and flooding limits for the west of USA.

Coastal evidence for Holocene subduction-zone earthquakes and tsunamis in central Chile

USGS Publications Warehouse

Dure, Tina; Cisternas, Marco; Horton, Benjamin; Ely, Lisa; Nelson, Alan R.; Wesson, Robert L.; Pilarczyk, Jessica

2015-01-01

The ∼500-year historical record of seismicity along the central Chile coast (30–34°S) is characterized by a series of ∼M 8.0–8.5 earthquakes followed by low tsunamis (<4 m) occurring on the megathrust about every 80 years. One exception is the AD 1730 great earthquake (M 9.0–9.5) and high tsunami (>10 m), but the frequency of such large events is unknown. We extend the seismic history of central Chile through a study of a lowland stratigraphic sequence along the metropolitan coast north of Valparaíso (33°S). At this site, higher relative sea level during the mid Holocene created a tidal marsh and the accommodation space necessary for sediment that preserves earthquake and tsunami evidence. Within this 2600-yr-long sequence, we traced six laterally continuous sand beds probably deposited by high tsunamis. Plant remains that underlie the sand beds were radiocarbon dated to 6200, 5600, 5000, 4400, 3800, and 3700 cal yr BP. Sediment properties and diatom assemblages of the sand beds—for example, anomalous marine planktonic diatoms and upward fining of silt-sized diatom valves—point to a marine sediment source and high-energy deposition. Grain-size analysis shows a strong similarity between inferred tsunami deposits and modern coastal sediment. Upward fining sequences characteristic of suspension deposition are present in five of the six sand beds. Despite the lack of significant lithologic changes between the sedimentary units under- and overlying tsunami deposits, we infer that the increase in freshwater siliceous microfossils in overlying units records coseismic uplift concurrent with the deposition of five of the sand beds. During our mid-Holocene window of evidence preservation, the mean recurrence interval of earthquakes and tsunamis is ∼500 years. Our findings imply that the frequency of historical earthquakes in central Chile is not representative of the greatest earthquakes and tsunamis that the central Chilean subduction zone has produced.

Comparison between Observed Tsunami Heights and Numerical Simulation of the 1854 Ansei-Tokai Earthquake Tsunami in Gokasho Bay, central Japan

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Naruhashi, R.; Satake, K.; Heidarzadeh, M.; Harada, T.

2014-12-01

　Gokasho Bay is a blockade inner bay which has typical ria coasts and drowned valleys. It is located in the central Kii Peninsula and faces the Nankai Trough subduction zone. This Kumano-nada coastal area has been repeatedly striked by historical great tsunamis. For the 1854 Ansei-Tokai earthquake and its tsunami, there are comparatively many historical records including historical documents and oral traditions for tsunami behavior and damages along the coast.　Based on these records, a total of 42 tsunami heights were measured by using a laser range finder and a hand level on the basis of spot elevation given by 1/2500 topographical maps. The average inundation height of whole bay area was approximately 4 - 5 m. On the whole, in the closed-off section of the bay, large values were obtained. For example, the average value in Gokasho-ura town area was 4 m, and the maximum run-up height along the Gokasho river was 6.8 m. Particularly in Konsa, located in the most closed-off section of the bay, tsunami heights ranged between 4 - 11 m, and were higher than those in other districts. It was comparatively high along the eastern coast and eastern baymouth.　We simulate the distribution of the tsunami wave heights using numerical modeling, and compare the simulation results and above-mentioned actual historical data and results of our field survey. Based on fault models by Ando (1975), Aida (1981), and Annaka et al. (2003), the tsunami simulation was performed.　After comparing the calculated results by three fault models, the wave height based on the model by Annaka et al. (2003) was found to have better agreement with observations. Moreover, the wave height values in a closed-off section of bay and at the eastern baymouth are high consistent with our survey data.

Scientific Animations for Tsunami Hazard Mitigation: The Pacific Tsunami Warning Center's YouTube Channel

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Becker, N. C.; Wang, D.; Shiro, B.; Ward, B.

2013-12-01

Outreach and education save lives, and the Pacific Tsunami Warning Center (PTWC) has a new tool--a YouTube Channel--to advance its mission to protect lives and property from dangerous tsunamis. Such outreach and education is critical for coastal populations nearest an earthquake since they may not get an official warning before a tsunami reaches them and will need to know what to do when they feel strong shaking. Those who live far enough away to receive useful official warnings and react to them, however, can also benefit from PTWC's education and outreach efforts. They can better understand a tsunami warning message when they receive one, can better understand the danger facing them, and can better anticipate how events will unfold while the warning is in effect. The same holds true for emergency managers, who have the authority to evacuate the public they serve, and for the news media, critical partners in disseminating tsunami hazard information. PTWC's YouTube channel supplements its formal outreach and education efforts by making its computer animations available 24/7 to anyone with an Internet connection. Though the YouTube channel is only a month old (as of August 2013), it should rapidly develop a large global audience since similar videos on PTWC's Facebook page have reached over 70,000 viewers during organized media events, while PTWC's official web page has received tens of millions of hits during damaging tsunamis. These animations are not mere cartoons but use scientific data and calculations to render graphical depictions of real-world phenomena as accurately as possible. This practice holds true whether the animation is a simple comparison of historic earthquake magnitudes or a complex simulation cycling through thousands of high-resolution data grids to render tsunami waves propagating across an entire ocean basin. PTWC's animations fall into two broad categories. The first group illustrates concepts about seismology and how it is critical to tsunami warning operations, such as those about earthquake magnitudes, how earthquakes are located, where and how often earthquakes occur, and fault rupture length. The second group uses the PTWC-developed tsunami forecast model, RIFT (Wang et al., 2012), to show how various historic tsunamis propagated through the world's oceans. These animations illustrate important concepts about tsunami behavior such as their speed, how they bend around and bounce off of seafloor features, how their wave heights vary from place to place and in time, and how their behavior is strongly influenced by the type of earthquake that generated them. PTWC's YouTube channel also includes an animation that simulates both seismic and tsunami phenomena together as they occurred for the 2011 Japan tsunami including actual sea-level measurements and proper timing for tsunami alert status, thus serving as a video 'time line' for that event and showing the time scales involved in tsunami warning operations. Finally, PTWC's scientists can use their YouTube channel to communicate with their colleagues in the research community by supplementing their peer-reviewed papers with video 'figures' (e.g., Wang et al., 2012).

Validation of NEOWAVE with Measurements from the 2011 Tohoku Tsunami

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cheung, K.; Yamazaki, Y.

2012-12-01

An accurate and reliable numerical model is essential in mapping tsunami hazards for mitigation and preparedness. The model NEOWAVE (Non-hydrostatic Evolution of Ocean WAVEs) is being used for tsunami inundation mapping in Hawaii, American Samoa, the Gulf coast states, and Puerto Rico. In addition to the benchmarks established by the National Tsunami Hazard Mitigation Program, we have been conducting a thorough investigation of NEOWAVE's capability in reproducing the 2011 Tohoku tsunami and its impact across the Pacific. The shock-capturing non-hydrostatic model is well suited to handle tsunami conditions in a variety of coastal environments in the near and far field. It describes dispersive waves through non-hydrostatic pressure and vertical velocity, which also account for tsunami generation from time histories of seafloor deformation. The semi-implicit, staggered finite difference model captures flow discontinuities associated with bores or hydraulic jumps through a momentum conservation scheme. The model supports up to five levels of two-way nested grids in spherical coordinates to describe tsunami processes of varying time and spatial scales from the open ocean to the coast. We first define the source mechanism through forward modeling of the near-field tsunami recorded by coastal and deep-ocean buoys. A finite-fault solution based on teleseismic P-wave inversion serves as the starting point of the iterative process, in which the source parameters are systematically adjusted to achieve convergence of the computed tsunami with the near-field records. The capability of NEOWAVE in modeling propagation of the tsunami is evaluated with DART data across the Pacific as well as water-level and current measurements in Hawaii. These far-field water-level records, which are not considered in the forward modeling, also provide an independently assessment of the source model. The computed runup and inundation are compared with measurements along Northeastern Japan coasts and the Hawaiian Island chain. These coastlines include shallow embayments with open plains, narrow estuaries with steep cliffs, and volcanic insular slopes with fringing reefs for full validation of the model in a single event. The Tohoku tsunami caused persistent oscillations and hazardous currents in coastal waters around Hawaii. Analysis of the computed surface elevation reveals complex resonance modes along the Hawaiian Island chain. Standing waves with period 16 min or shorter are able to form a series of nodes and antinodes over the reefs that results in strong currents and large drawdown responsible for the damage in harbors and marinas. The results provide insights into effects of fringing reefs, which are present along 70% of Hawaii's coastlines, on tsunami transformation and runup processes. The case study improves our understanding on tsunamis in tropical island environments and validates the modeling capability to predict their impacts for hazard mitigation and emergency management.

Modeling potential tsunami sources for deposits near Unalaska Island, Aleutian Islands

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

La Selle, S.; Gelfenbaum, G. R.

2013-12-01

In regions with little seismic data and short historical records of earthquakes, we can use preserved tsunami deposits and tsunami modeling to infer if, when and where tsunamigenic earthquakes have occurred. The Aleutian-Alaska subduction zone in the region offshore of Unalaska Island is one such region where the historical and paleo-seismicity is poorly understood. This section of the subduction zone is not thought to have ruptured historically in a large earthquake, leading some to designate the region as a seismic gap. By modeling various historical and synthetic earthquake sources, we investigate whether or not tsunamis that left deposits near Unalaska Island were generated by earthquakes rupturing through Unalaska Gap. Preliminary field investigations near the eastern end of Unalaska Island have identified paleotsunami deposits well above sea level, suggesting that multiple tsunamis in the last 5,000 years have flooded low-lying areas over 1 km inland. Other indicators of tsunami inundation, such as a breached cobble beach berm and driftwood logs stranded far inland, were tentatively attributed to the March 9, 1957 tsunami, which had reported runup of 13 to 22 meters on Umnak and Unimak Islands, to the west and east of Unalaska. In order to determine if tsunami inundation could have reached the runup markers observed on Unalaska, we modeled the 1957 tsunami using GeoCLAW, a numerical model that simulates tsunami generation, propagation, and inundation. The published rupture orientation and slip distribution for the MW 8.6, 1957 earthquake (Johnson et al., 1994) was used as the tsunami source, which delineates a 1200 km long rupture zone along the Aleutian trench from Delarof Island to Unimak Island. Model results indicate that runup and inundation from this particular source are too low to account for the runup markers observed in the field, because slip is concentrated in the western half of the rupture zone, far from Unalaska. To ascertain if any realistic, earthquake-generated tsunami could account for the observed runup, we modeled tsunami inundation from synthetic MW 9.2 earthquakes rupturing along the trench between Atka and Unimak Islands, which indicate that the deposit runup observed on Unalaska is possible from a source of this size and orientation. Further modeling efforts will examine the April 1, 1946 Aleutian tsunami, as well as other synthetic tsunamigenic earthquake sources of varying size and location, which may provide insight into the rupture history of the Aleutian-Alaska subduction zone, especially in combination with more data from paleotsunami deposits. Johnson, Jean M., Tanioka, Yuichiro, Ruff, Larry J., Satake, Kenji, Kanamori, Hiroo, Sykes, Lynn R. "The 1957 great Aleutian earthquake." Pure and Applied Geophysics 142.1 (1994): 3-28.

Towards a robust framework for Probabilistic Tsunami Hazard Assessment (PTHA) for local and regional tsunami in New Zealand

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mueller, Christof; Power, William; Fraser, Stuart; Wang, Xiaoming

2013-04-01

Probabilistic Tsunami Hazard Assessment (PTHA) is conceptually closely related to Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Assessment (PSHA). The main difference is that PTHA needs to simulate propagation of tsunami waves through the ocean and cannot rely on attenuation relationships, which makes PTHA computationally more expensive. The wave propagation process can be assumed to be linear as long as water depth is much larger than the wave amplitude of the tsunami. Beyond this limit a non-linear scheme has to be employed with significantly higher algorithmic run times. PTHA considering far-field tsunami sources typically uses unit source simulations, and relies on the linearity of the process by later scaling and combining the wave fields of individual simulations to represent the intended earthquake magnitude and rupture area. Probabilistic assessments are typically made for locations offshore but close to the coast. Inundation is calculated only for significantly contributing events (de-aggregation). For local and regional tsunami it has been demonstrated that earthquake rupture complexity has a significant effect on the tsunami amplitude distribution offshore and also on inundation. In this case PTHA has to take variable slip distributions and non-linearity into account. A unit source approach cannot easily be applied. Rupture complexity is seen as an aleatory uncertainty and can be incorporated directly into the rate calculation. We have developed a framework that manages the large number of simulations required for local PTHA. As an initial case study the effect of rupture complexity on tsunami inundation and the statistics of the distribution of wave heights have been investigated for plate-interface earthquakes in the Hawke's Bay region in New Zealand. Assessing the probability that water levels will be in excess of a certain threshold requires the calculation of empirical cumulative distribution functions (ECDF). We compare our results with traditional estimates for tsunami inundation simulations that do not consider rupture complexity. De-aggregation based on moment magnitude alone might not be appropriate, because the hazard posed by any individual event can be underestimated locally if rupture complexity is ignored.

Multiscale Modelling of the 2011 Tohoku Tsunami with Fluidity: Coastal Inundation and Run-up.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hill, J.; Martin-Short, R.; Piggott, M. D.; Candy, A. S.

2014-12-01

Tsunami-induced flooding represents one of the most dangerous natural hazards to coastal communities around the world, as exemplified by Tohoku tsunami of March 2011. In order to further understand this hazard and to design appropriate mitigation it is necessary to develop versatile, accurate software capable of simulating large scale tsunami propagation and interaction with coastal geomorphology on a local scale. One such software package is Fluidity, an open source, finite element, multiscale, code that is capable of solving the fully three dimensional Navier-Stokes equations on unstructured meshes. Such meshes are significantly better at representing complex coastline shapes than structured meshes and have the advantage of allowing variation in element size across a domain. Furthermore, Fluidity incorporates a novel wetting and drying algorithm, which enables accurate, efficient simulation of tsunami run-up over complex, multiscale, topography. Fluidity has previously been demonstrated to accurately simulate the 2011 Tohoku tsunami (Oishi et al 2013) , but its wetting and drying facility has not yet been tested on a geographical scale. This study makes use of Fluidity to simulate the 2011 Tohoku tsunami and its interaction with Japan's eastern shoreline, including coastal flooding. The results are validated against observations made by survey teams, aerial photographs and previous modelling efforts in order to evaluate Fluidity's current capabilities and suggest methods of future improvement. The code is shown to perform well at simulating flooding along the topographically complex Tohoku coast of Japan, with major deviations between model and observation arising mainly due to limitations imposed by bathymetry resolution, which could be improved in future. In theory, Fluidity is capable of full multiscale tsunami modelling, thus enabling researchers to understand both wave propagation across ocean basins and flooding of coastal landscapes down to interaction with individual defence structures. This makes the code an exciting candidate for use in future studies aiming to investigate tsunami risk elsewhere in the world. Oishi, Y. et al. Three-dimensional tsunami propagation simulations using an unstructured mesh finite element model. J. Geophys. Res. [Solid Earth] 118, 2998-3018 (2013).

Early post-tsunami disaster medical assistance to Banda Aceh: a personal account.

PubMed

Garner, Alan A; Harrison, Ken

2006-02-01

The south Asian tsunami on 26 December, 2004, saw Australia deploy civilian teams to an international disaster in large numbers for the first time. The logistics of supporting such teams in both a self sustainability capacity and medical equipment had not previously been planned for or tested. For the first Australian team deployed to Banda Aceh, which arrived on the fourth day after the tsunami, equipment sourced from the New South Wales Fire Brigades Urban Search and Rescue (US&R) cache supplied all food, water, tents, generators and sleeping equipment. The medical equipment was largely sourced from the CareFlight US&R medical cache. There were significant deficits in surgical equipment as the medical cache had not been designed to provide a stand alone surgical capability. This resulted in the need for substantial improvisation by the surgical teams during the deployment. Despite this, the team performed nearly 140 major procedures in austere circumstances and significantly contributed to the early international response to this major humanitarian disaster.

Rapid magnitude estimation from time-dependent displacement amplitude measured with seismogeodetic instrumentation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Goldberg, D.; Bock, Y.; Melgar, D.

2017-12-01

Earthquake magnitude is a concise metric that illuminates the destructive potential of a seismic event. Rapid determination of earthquake magnitude is currently the main prerequisite for dissemination of a tsunami early warning, thus timely and automated calculation is of high importance. Seismic instrumentation experiences well-documented complications at long periods, making the accurate measurement of ground displacement in the near field unreliable. As a result, the relation between ground motion measured with seismic instrumentation and magnitude saturates, causing underestimation of the size of very large events. In the case of tsunamigenic earthquakes, magnitude underestimation in turn leads to a flawed tsunami inundation assessment, which limits the effectiveness of an early warning, in particular for local tsunamis. Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS) instrumentation measures the displacement field directly, leading to more accurate magnitude estimates with near-field data. Unlike seismic-only instrumentation, near-field GNSS has been shown to provide an accurate magnitude estimate using the peak ground displacement (PGD) after just 2 minutes [Melgar et al., 2015]. However, GNSS alone is too noisy to detect the first seismic wave arrivals (P-waves), thus it cannot be as timely as a seismic system on its own. Using collocated seismic and geodetic instrumentation, we refine magnitude scaling relations by incorporating a large dataset of earthquakes in Japan. We demonstrate that consideration of the time-dependence of displacement amplitude with respect to P-wave arrival time reduces the time to convergence of the magnitude estimate. We present findings on the growth of events of large magnitude, and demonstrate time-dependent scaling relations that adapt to the amount of recorded data, starting with the P-wave arrival and continuing through PGD. We illustrate real-time, automated implementation of this method, and consider network improvements to advance rapid characterization of large events. Improvement of initial magnitude estimates through integration of geodetic and seismogeodetic observations is a top priority of an ongoing collaboration with NASA and NOAA's National and Pacific Tsunami Warning Centers (NOAA/NASA GNSS Tsunami Team).

Ionospheric manifestations of earthquakes and tsunamis in a dynamic atmosphere

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Godin, Oleg A.; Zabotin, Nikolay A.; Zabotina, Liudmila

2015-04-01

Observations of the ionosphere provide a new, promising modality for characterizing large-scale physical processes that occur on land and in the ocean. There is a large and rapidly growing body of evidence that a number of natural hazards, including large earthquakes, strong tsunamis, and powerful tornadoes, have pronounced ionospheric manifestations, which are reliably detected by ground-based and satellite-borne instruments. As the focus shifts from detecting the ionospheric features associated with the natural hazards to characterizing the hazards for the purposes of improving early warning systems and contributing to disaster recovery, it becomes imperative to relate quantitatively characteristics of the observed ionospheric disturbances and the underlying natural hazard. The relation between perturbations at the ground level and their ionospheric manifestations is strongly affected by parameters of the intervening atmosphere. In this paper, we employ the ray theory to model propagation of acoustic-gravity waves in three-dimensionally inhomogeneous atmosphere. Huygens' wavefront-tracing and Hamiltonian ray-tracing algorithms are used to simulate propagation of body waves from an earthquake hypocenter through the earth's crust and ocean to the upper atmosphere. We quantify the influence of temperature stratification and winds, including their seasonal variability, and air viscosity and thermal conductivity on the geometry and amplitude of ionospheric disturbances that are generated by seismic surface waves and tsunamis. Modeling results are verified by comparing observations of the velocity fluctuations at altitudes of 150-160 km by a coastal Dynasonde HF radar system with theoretical predictions of ionospheric manifestations of background infragravity waves in the ocean. Dynasonde radar systems are shown to be a promising means for monitoring acoustic-gravity wave activity and observing ionospheric perturbations due to earthquakes and tsunamis. We will discuss the effects of the background ionospheric disturbances and uncertainty in atmospheric parameters on the feasibility and accuracy of retrieval of the open-ocean tsunami heights from observations of the ionosphere.

A rapid estimation of near field tsunami run-up

USGS Publications Warehouse

Riqueime, Sebastian; Fuentes, Mauricio; Hayes, Gavin; Campos, Jamie

2015-01-01

Many efforts have been made to quickly estimate the maximum run-up height of tsunamis associated with large earthquakes. This is a difficult task, because of the time it takes to construct a tsunami model using real time data from the source. It is possible to construct a database of potential seismic sources and their corresponding tsunami a priori.However, such models are generally based on uniform slip distributions and thus oversimplify the knowledge of the earthquake source. Here, we show how to predict tsunami run-up from any seismic source model using an analytic solution, that was specifically designed for subduction zones with a well defined geometry, i.e., Chile, Japan, Nicaragua, Alaska. The main idea of this work is to provide a tool for emergency response, trading off accuracy for speed. The solutions we present for large earthquakes appear promising. Here, run-up models are computed for: The 1992 Mw 7.7 Nicaragua Earthquake, the 2001 Mw 8.4 Perú Earthquake, the 2003Mw 8.3 Hokkaido Earthquake, the 2007 Mw 8.1 Perú Earthquake, the 2010 Mw 8.8 Maule Earthquake, the 2011 Mw 9.0 Tohoku Earthquake and the recent 2014 Mw 8.2 Iquique Earthquake. The maximum run-up estimations are consistent with measurements made inland after each event, with a peak of 9 m for Nicaragua, 8 m for Perú (2001), 32 m for Maule, 41 m for Tohoku, and 4.1 m for Iquique. Considering recent advances made in the analysis of real time GPS data and the ability to rapidly resolve the finiteness of a large earthquake close to existing GPS networks, it will be possible in the near future to perform these calculations within the first minutes after the occurrence of similar events. Thus, such calculations will provide faster run-up information than is available from existing uniform-slip seismic source databases or past events of pre-modeled seismic sources.

Statistical Analysis of the Effectiveness of Seawalls and Coastal Forests in Mitigating Tsunami Impacts in Iwate and Miyagi Prefectures.

PubMed

Nateghi, Roshanak; Bricker, Jeremy D; Guikema, Seth D; Bessho, Akane

2016-01-01

The Pacific coast of the Tohoku region of Japan experiences repeated tsunamis, with the most recent events having occurred in 1896, 1933, 1960, and 2011. These events have caused large loss of life and damage throughout the coastal region. There is uncertainty about the degree to which seawalls reduce deaths and building damage during tsunamis in Japan. On the one hand they provide physical protection against tsunamis as long as they are not overtopped and do not fail. On the other hand, the presence of a seawall may induce a false sense of security, encouraging additional development behind the seawall and reducing evacuation rates during an event. We analyze municipality-level and sub-municipality-level data on the impacts of the 1896, 1933, 1960, and 2011 tsunamis, finding that seawalls larger than 5 m in height generally have served a protective role in these past events, reducing both death rates and the damage rates of residential buildings. However, seawalls smaller than 5 m in height appear to have encouraged development in vulnerable areas and exacerbated damage. We also find that the extent of flooding is a critical factor in estimating both death rates and building damage rates, suggesting that additional measures, such as multiple lines of defense and elevating topography, may have significant benefits in reducing the impacts of tsunamis. Moreover, the area of coastal forests was found to be inversely related to death and destruction rates, indicating that forests either mitigated the impacts of these tsunamis, or displaced development that would otherwise have been damaged.

Tsunami evacuation simulation considering differences in evacuation means depending on the household attribute

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sugiki, Nao; Hirata, Yoshiki; Matsuo, Kojiro

2017-10-01

Large scale earthquakes occur frequently in Japan in recent years. In the Great East Japan Earthquake that occurred in 2011 and caused major damage, more than 90% of the dead were due to the tsunami. The speed of evacuation is important in considering evacuation at the time of the attack of the tsunami, especially the elderly evacuation speed is assumed to be slower than non-elderly people. Elderly people may have different means of evacuation and speed depending on the composition of the households to which they belong because of the different possibilities of riding in families' driven cars. However, a simulation taking such a difference of evacuation into consideration has not been conducted. The purpose of this study is to conduct a tsunami evacuation simulation in consideration of evacuation measures and speed depending on the type of households belonging to in the tsunami inundation area of Toyohashi city, Japan. In order to conduct the tsunami evacuation simulation considering the household type, detailed data on individual households is necessary. However, it is difficult to obtain from aggregated data such as National Census. Therefore, detailed data on individual households is created by using the household micro data estimation system developed by Sugiki et al. [1]. Evacuation simulation is performed by shortest path search using Esri's ArcGIS Network Analyst's OD cost matrix analysis. The elderly people who cannot complete evacuation by the time of the arrival of the tsunami were found from evacuation simulation results assuming evacuation measures available for each household attribute to which the evacuees belong.

Statistical Analysis of the Effectiveness of Seawalls and Coastal Forests in Mitigating Tsunami Impacts in Iwate and Miyagi Prefectures

PubMed Central

Nateghi, Roshanak; Bricker, Jeremy D.; Guikema, Seth D.; Bessho, Akane

2016-01-01

The Pacific coast of the Tohoku region of Japan experiences repeated tsunamis, with the most recent events having occurred in 1896, 1933, 1960, and 2011. These events have caused large loss of life and damage throughout the coastal region. There is uncertainty about the degree to which seawalls reduce deaths and building damage during tsunamis in Japan. On the one hand they provide physical protection against tsunamis as long as they are not overtopped and do not fail. On the other hand, the presence of a seawall may induce a false sense of security, encouraging additional development behind the seawall and reducing evacuation rates during an event. We analyze municipality-level and sub-municipality-level data on the impacts of the 1896, 1933, 1960, and 2011 tsunamis, finding that seawalls larger than 5 m in height generally have served a protective role in these past events, reducing both death rates and the damage rates of residential buildings. However, seawalls smaller than 5 m in height appear to have encouraged development in vulnerable areas and exacerbated damage. We also find that the extent of flooding is a critical factor in estimating both death rates and building damage rates, suggesting that additional measures, such as multiple lines of defense and elevating topography, may have significant benefits in reducing the impacts of tsunamis. Moreover, the area of coastal forests was found to be inversely related to death and destruction rates, indicating that forests either mitigated the impacts of these tsunamis, or displaced development that would otherwise have been damaged. PMID:27508461

Community variations in population exposure to near-field tsunami hazards as a function of pedestrian travel time to safety

USGS Publications Warehouse

Wood, Nathan J.; Schmidtlein, Mathew C.

2013-01-01

Efforts to characterize population exposure to near-field tsunami threats typically focus on quantifying the number and type of people in tsunami-hazard zones. To develop and prioritize effective risk-reduction strategies, emergency managers also need information on the potential for successful evacuations and how this evacuation potential varies among communities. To improve efforts to properly characterize and differentiate near-field tsunami threats among multiple communities, we assess community variations in population exposure to tsunamis as a function of pedestrian travel time to safety. We focus our efforts on the multiple coastal communities in Grays Harbor and Pacific Counties (State of Washington, USA), where a substantial resident and visitor population is threatened by near-field tsunamis related to a potential Cascadia subduction zone earthquake. Anisotropic, path-distance modeling is conducted to estimate travel times to safety and results are merged with various population data, including residents, employees, public venues, and dependent-care facilities. Results suggest that there is substantial variability among communities in the number of people that may have insufficient time to evacuate. Successful evacuations may be possible in some communities assuming slow-walking speeds, are plausible in others if travel speeds are increased, and are unlikely in another set of communities given the large distances and short time horizon. Emergency managers can use these results to prioritize the location and determine the most appropriate type of tsunami risk-reduction strategies, such as education and training in areas where evacuations are plausible and vertical-evacuation structures in areas where they are not.

Preparing for the Future Nankai Trough Tsunami: A Data Assimilation and Inversion Analysis From Various Observational Systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mulia, Iyan E.; Inazu, Daisuke; Waseda, Takuji; Gusman, Aditya Riadi

2017-10-01

The future Nankai Trough tsunami is one of the imminent threats to the Japanese coastal communities that could potentially cause a catastrophic event. As a part of the countermeasure efforts for such an occurrence, this study analyzes the efficacy of combining tsunami data assimilation (DA) and waveform inversion (WI). The DA is used to continuously refine a wavefield model whereas the WI is used to estimate the tsunami source. We consider a future scenario of the Nankai Trough tsunami recorded at various observational systems, including ocean bottom pressure (OBP) gauges, global positioning system (GPS) buoys, and ship height positioning data. Since most of the OBP gauges are located inside the source region, the recorded tsunami signals exhibit significant offsets from surface measurements due to coseismic seafloor deformation effects. Such biased data are not applicable to the standard DA, but can be taken into account in the WI. On the other hand, the use of WI for the ship data may not be practical because a considerably large precomputed tsunami database is needed to cope with the spontaneous ship locations. The DA is more suitable for such an observational system as it can be executed sequentially in time and does not require precomputed scenarios. Therefore, the combined approach of DA and WI allows us to concurrently make use of all observational resources. Additionally, we introduce a bias correction scheme for the OBP data to improve the accuracy, and an adaptive thinning of observations to determine the efficient number of observations.

Studying Displacement After a Disaster Using Large Scale Survey Methods: Sumatra After the 2004 Tsunami

PubMed Central

Gray, Clark; Frankenberg, Elizabeth; Gillespie, Thomas; Sumantri, Cecep; Thomas, Duncan

2014-01-01

Understanding of human vulnerability to environmental change has advanced in recent years, but measuring vulnerability and interpreting mobility across many sites differentially affected by change remains a significant challenge. Drawing on longitudinal data collected on the same respondents who were living in coastal areas of Indonesia before the 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami and were re-interviewed after the tsunami, this paper illustrates how the combination of population-based survey methods, satellite imagery and multivariate statistical analyses has the potential to provide new insights into vulnerability, mobility and impacts of major disasters on population well-being. The data are used to map and analyze vulnerability to post-tsunami displacement across the provinces of Aceh and North Sumatra and to compare patterns of migration after the tsunami between damaged areas and areas not directly affected by the tsunami. The comparison reveals that migration after a disaster is less selective overall than migration in other contexts. Gender and age, for example, are strong predictors of moving from undamaged areas but are not related to displacement in areas experiencing damage. In our analyses traditional predictors of vulnerability do not always operate in expected directions. Low levels of socioeconomic status and education were not predictive of moving after the tsunami, although for those who did move, they were predictive of displacement to a camp rather than a private home. This survey-based approach, though not without difficulties, is broadly applicable to many topics in human-environment research, and potentially opens the door to rigorous testing of new hypotheses in this literature. PMID:24839300

The Effects of Mortality on Fertility: Population Dynamics After a Natural Disaster

PubMed Central

Nobles, Jenna; Frankenberg, Elizabeth; Thomas, Duncan

2015-01-01

Understanding how mortality and fertility are linked is essential to the study of population dynamics. We investigate the fertility response to an unanticipated mortality shock that resulted from the 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami, which killed large shares of the residents of some Indonesian communities but caused no deaths in neighboring communities. Using population-representative multilevel longitudinal data, we identify a behavioral fertility response to mortality exposure, both at the level of a couple and in the broader community. We observe a sustained fertility increase at the aggregate level following the tsunami, which was driven by two behavioral responses to mortality exposure. First, mothers who lost one or more children in the disaster were significantly more likely to bear additional children after the tsunami. This response explains about 13 % of the aggregate increase in fertility. Second, women without children before the tsunami initiated family-building earlier in communities where tsunami-related mortality rates were higher, indicating that the fertility of these women is an important route to rebuilding the population in the aftermath of a mortality shock. Such community-level effects have received little attention in demographic scholarship. PMID:25585644

Five centuries of tsunamis and land-level changes in the overlapping rupture area of the 1960 and 2010 Chilean earthquakes

USGS Publications Warehouse

Ely, Lisa L.; Cisternas, Marco; Wesson, Robert L.; Dura, Tina

2014-01-01

A combination of geological and historical records from south-central Chile provides a means to address general questions about the stability of megathrust rupture patches and the range of variation expected among earthquakes and tsunamis along a particular stretch of a subduction zone. The Tirúa River estuary (38.3°S) records four large tsunamis and coseismic land-level changes over the past 450 years within the overlapping rupture zones of the great subduction-zone earthquakes of A.D. 1960 (Mw9.5) and 2010 (Mw 8.8). Sand layers 2 km up the Tirúa River represent the 2010 and 1960 tsunamis and two historical tsunamis, most likely in A.D. 1751 and 1575. Differing land-level changes during these earthquakes likely denote differences in the spatial distribution of slip on the megathrust in both the strike and dip directions within the overlapping rupture zone, with the uplift at Tirúa in 1751 and 2010 probably caused by slip extending farther landward and to greater depth than in 1575 and 1960, which showed subsidence or little change.

Building strategies for tsunami scenarios databases to be used in a tsunami early warning decision support system: an application to western Iberia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tinti, S.; Armigliato, A.; Pagnoni, G.; Zaniboni, F.

2012-04-01

One of the most challenging goals that the geo-scientific community is facing after the catastrophic tsunami occurred on December 2004 in the Indian Ocean is to develop the so-called "next generation" Tsunami Early Warning Systems (TEWS). Indeed, the meaning of "next generation" does not refer to the aim of a TEWS, which obviously remains to detect whether a tsunami has been generated or not by a given source and, in the first case, to send proper warnings and/or alerts in a suitable time to all the countries and communities that can be affected by the tsunami. Instead, "next generation" identifies with the development of a Decision Support System (DSS) that, in general terms, relies on 1) an integrated set of seismic, geodetic and marine sensors whose objective is to detect and characterise the possible tsunamigenic sources and to monitor instrumentally the time and space evolution of the generated tsunami, 2) databases of pre-computed numerical tsunami scenarios to be suitably combined based on the information coming from the sensor environment and to be used to forecast the degree of exposition of different coastal places both in the near- and in the far-field, 3) a proper overall (software) system architecture. The EU-FP7 TRIDEC Project aims at developing such a DSS and has selected two test areas in the Euro-Mediterranean region, namely the western Iberian margin and the eastern Mediterranean (Turkish coasts). In this study, we discuss the strategies that are being adopted in TRIDEC to build the databases of pre-computed tsunami scenarios and we show some applications to the western Iberian margin. In particular, two different databases are being populated, called "Virtual Scenario Database" (VSDB) and "Matching Scenario Database" (MSDB). The VSDB contains detailed simulations of few selected earthquake-generated tsunamis. The cases provided by the members of the VSDB are computed "real events"; in other words, they represent the unknowns that the TRIDEC platform must be able to recognise and match during the early crisis management phase. The MSDB contains a very large number (order of thousands) of tsunami simulations performed starting from many different simple earthquake sources of different magnitudes and located in the "vicinity" of the virtual scenario earthquake. Examples from both databases will be presented.

Rapid inundation estimates using coastal amplification laws in the western Mediterranean basin

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gailler, Audrey; Loevenbruck, Anne; Hébert, Hélène

2014-05-01

Numerical tsunami propagation and inundation models are well developed and have now reached an impressive level of accuracy, especially in locations such as harbors where the tsunami waves are mostly amplified. In the framework of tsunami warning under real-time operational conditions, the main obstacle for the routine use of such numerical simulations remains the slowness of the numerical computation, which is strengthened when detailed grids are required for the precise modeling of the coastline response of an individual harbor. Thus only tsunami offshore propagation modeling tools using a single sparse bathymetric computation grid are presently included within the French Tsunami Warning Center (CENALT), providing rapid estimation of tsunami warning at western Mediterranean and NE Atlantic basins scale. We present here a preliminary work that performs quick estimates of the inundation at individual harbors from these high sea forecasting tsunami simulations. The method involves an empirical correction based on theoretical amplification laws (either Green's or Synolakis laws). The main limitation is that its application to a given coastal area would require a large database of previous observations, in order to define the empirical parameters of the correction equation. As no such data (i.e., historical tide gage records of significant tsunamis) are available for the western Mediterranean and NE Atlantic basins, we use a set of synthetic mareograms, calculated for both fake events and well-known historical tsunamigenic earthquakes in the area. This synthetic dataset is obtained through accurate numerical tsunami propagation and inundation modeling by using several nested bathymetric grids of increasingly fine resolution close to the shores (down to a grid cell size of 3m in some Mediterranean harbors). Non linear shallow water tsunami modeling performed on a single 2' coarse bathymetric grid are compared to the values given by time-consuming nested grids simulations (and observation when available), in order to check to which extent the simple approach based on the amplification laws can explain the data. The idea is to fit tsunami data with numerical modeling carried out without any refined coastal bathymetry/topography. To this end several parameters are discussed, namely the bathymetric depth to which model results must be extrapolated (using the Green's law), or the mean bathymetric slope to consider near the studied coast (when using the Synolakis law).

Evaluation of W Phase CMT Based PTWC Real-Time Tsunami Forecast Model Using DART Observations: Events of the Last Decade

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, D.; Becker, N. C.; Weinstein, S.; Duputel, Z.; Rivera, L. A.; Hayes, G. P.; Hirshorn, B. F.; Bouchard, R. H.; Mungov, G.

2017-12-01

The Pacific Tsunami Warning Center (PTWC) began forecasting tsunamis in real-time using source parameters derived from real-time Centroid Moment Tensor (CMT) solutions in 2009. Both the USGS and PTWC typically obtain W-Phase CMT solutions for large earthquakes less than 30 minutes after earthquake origin time. Within seconds, and often before waves reach the nearest deep ocean bottom pressure sensor (DARTs), PTWC then generates a regional tsunami propagation forecast using its linear shallow water model. The model is initialized by the sea surface deformation that mimics the seafloor deformation based on Okada's (1985) dislocation model of a rectangular fault with a uniform slip. The fault length and width are empirical functions of the seismic moment. How well did this simple model perform? The DART records provide a very valuable dataset for model validation. We examine tsunami events of the last decade with earthquake magnitudes ranging from 6.5 to 9.0 including some deep events for which tsunamis were not expected. Most of the forecast results were obtained during the events. We also include events from before the implementation of the WCMT method at USGS and PTWC, 2006-2009. For these events, WCMTs were computed retrospectively (Duputel et al. 2012). We also re-ran the model with a larger domain for some events to include far-field DARTs that recorded a tsunami with identical source parameters used during the events. We conclude that our model results, in terms of maximum wave amplitude, are mostly within a factor of two of the observed at DART stations, with an average error of less than 40% for most events, including the 2010 Maule and the 2011 Tohoku tsunamis. However, the simple fault model with a uniform slip is too simplistic for the Tohoku tsunami. We note model results are sensitive to centroid location and depth, especially if the earthquake is close to land or inland. For the 2016 M7.8 New Zealand earthquake the initial forecast underestimated the tsunami because the initial WCMT centroid was on land (the epicenter was inland but most of the slips occurred offshore). Later WCMTs did provide better forecast. The model also failed to reproduce the observed tsunamis from earthquake-generated landslides. Sea level observations during the events are crucial in determining whether or not a forecast needs to be adjusted.

Noise Reduction of Ocean-Bottom Pressure Data Toward Real-Time Tsunami Forecasting

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tsushima, H.; Hino, R.

2008-12-01

We discuss a method of noise reduction of ocean-bottom pressure data to be fed into the near-field tsunami forecasting scheme proposed by Tsushima et al. [2008a]. In their scheme, the pressure data is processed in real time as follows: (1) removing ocean tide components by subtracting the sea-level variation computed from a theoretical tide model, (2) applying low-pass digital filter to remove high-frequency fluctuation due to seismic waves, and (3) removing DC-offset and linear-trend component to determine a baseline of relative sea level. However, it turns out this simple method is not always successful in extracting tsunami waveforms from the data, when the observed amplitude is ~1cm. For disaster mitigation, accurate forecasting of small tsunamis is important as well as large tsunamis. Since small tsunami events occur frequently, successful tsunami forecasting of those events are critical to obtain public reliance upon tsunami warnings. As a test case, we applied the data-processing described above to the bottom pressure records containing tsunami with amplitude less than 1 cm which was generated by the 2003 Off-Fukushima earthquake occurring in the Japan Trench subduction zone. The observed pressure variation due to the ocean tide is well explained by the calculated tide signals from NAO99Jb model [Matsumoto et al., 2000]. However, the tide components estimated by BAYTAP-G [Tamura et al., 1991] from the pressure data is more appropriate for predicting and removing the ocean tide signals. In the pressure data after removing the tide variations, there remain pressure fluctuations with frequencies ranging from about 0.1 to 1 mHz and with amplitudes around ~10 cm. These fluctuations distort the estimation of zero-level and linear trend to define relative sea-level variation, which is treated as tsunami waveform in the subsequent analysis. Since the linear trend is estimated from the data prior to the origin time of the earthquake, an artificial linear trend is produced in the processed waveform. This artificial linear trend degrades the accuracy of the tsunami forecasting, although the forecasting result is expected to be robust against the existence of short-period noise [Tsushima et al., 2008a]. Since the bottom pressure show gradual increase (or decrease) in the tsunami source region [Tsushima et al., 2008b], it is important to remove the linear trend not related to the tsunami generation from the data before fed into the analysis. Therefore, the reduction of the noise in sub-mHz band is critical for the forecasting small tsunamis. Applying a kind of frequency filters to eliminate this noise cannot be a solution for this problem because actual tsunami signals may also contain components of this frequency band. We investigate whether any statistical modelings of the noise are effective for reducing the sub-mHz noise.

Infrasound associated with 2004-2005 large Sumatra earthquakes and tsunami

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Le Pichon, A.; Herry, P.; Mialle, P.; Vergoz, J.; Brachet, N.; Garcés, M.; Drob, D.; Ceranna, L.

2005-10-01

Large earthquakes that occurred in the Sumatra region in 2004 and 2005 generated acoustic waves recorded by the Diego Garcia infrasound array. The Progressive Multi-Channel Correlation (PMCC) analysis is performed to detect the seismic and infrasound signals associated with these events. The study is completed by an inverse location procedure that permitted reconstruction of the source location of the infrasonic waves. The results show that ground motion near the epicenter and vibrations of nearby land masses efficiently produced infrasound. The analysis also reveals unique evidence of long period pressure waves from the tsunami earthquake (M9.0) of December 26, 2004.

Improved tsunami impact assessments: validation, comparison and the integration of hydrodynamic modeling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tarbotton, C.; Walters, R. A.; Goff, J. R.; Dominey-Howes, D.; Turner, I. L.

2012-12-01

As communities become increasingly aware of the risks posed by tsunamis, it is important to develop methods for predicting the damage they can cause to the built environment. This will provide the information needed to make informed decisions regarding land-use, building codes, and evacuation. At present, a number of tsunami-building vulnerability assessment models are available, however, the relative infrequency and destructive nature of tsunamis has long made it difficult to obtain the data necessary to adequately validate and compare them. Further complicating matters is that the inundation of a tsunami in the built environment is very difficult model, as is the response of a building to the hydraulic forces that a tsunami generates. Variations in building design and condition will significantly affect a building's susceptibility to damage. Likewise, factors affecting the flow conditions at a building (i.e. surrounding structures and topography), will greatly affect its exposure. This presents significant challenges for practitioners, as they are often left in the dark on how to use hazard modeling and vulnerability assessment techniques together to conduct the community-scale impact studies required for tsunami planning. This paper presents the results of an in-depth case study of Yuriage, Miyagi Prefecture - a coastal city in Japan that was badly damaged by the 2011 Tohoku tsunami. The aim of the study was twofold: 1) To test and compare existing tsunami vulnerability assessment models and 2) To more effectively utilize hydrodynamic models in the context of tsunami impact studies. Following the 2011 Tohoku event, an unprecedented quantity of field data, imagery and video emerged. Yuriage in particular, features a comprehensive set of street level Google Street View imagery, available both before and after the event. This has enabled the collection of a large dataset describing the characteristics of the buildings existing before the event as well the subsequent damage that they sustained during. These data together with the detailed results from hydrodynamic models have been used to provide the building, damage and hazard data necessary to rigorously test and compare existing vulnerability assessments techniques. The result is a much-improved understanding of the capabilities of existing vulnerability assessment techniques, as well as important improvements to their assessment framework This provides much needed guidance to practitioners on how to conduct tsunami impact assessments in the future. Furthermore, the study introduces some new methods of integrating hydrodynamic models into vulnerability assessment models, offering guidance on how to more effectively model tsunami inundation in the built environment.

Geomorphic impacts of the 2011 tsunami on the lower reaches of the R. Natori, northeast Japan

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shimazu, H.

2012-04-01

The tsunami caused by "the 2011 off the Pacific coast of Tohoku Earthquake" attacked Japan's east coast and inundated a large extent of the lowlands. The strong flood flow went upstream in the lower reaches of the rivers. The lower reaches of the rivers in Japan usually have unprotected dry riverbeds separated by dykes from floodplains where people live. The tsunami went upstream not only in the channels but also in the dry riverbeds. There is 1 kilometers wide unprotected dry riverbed in the lower reaches of the R. Natori, northeast Japan and they were used for vegetable farmlands. This study aims to discuss the geomorphic impacts of the tsunami on the dry riverbed in the lower reaches of the R. Natori. Surface sediments, micro-landforms and damages to agricultural facilities such as small poly tunnels, plastic mulches and support posts were examined to reconstruct the geomorphic impacts. Fieldworks were carried out at the beginning of May, 50 days after the tsunami disaster, and the end of August. Height of the tsunami near the river mouth was estimated over 3 meters. The flood flow went upstream to the sites at an elevation of 4 meters, 9 kilometers from the river mouth in the channel and 6.5 kilometers in the dry riverbed. Because the tsunami deposits are light colored sand and silt containing salinity, they could be distinguished from brown cultivated soil easily. The geomorphic impacts on the dry riverbed changed longitudinally. In the lowest 2.5 kilometers reaches strong flood flow and ebb flow caused strong erosion. It accounted for thin tsunami deposits with seashells and beach gravels, eroded scar, and dunes of downstream direction in the dry riverbed. In the next 1.5 kilometers reaches agricultural facilities were washed away or fell over upstream direction. Although the flood flow was still devastating, strength of the ebb flow gradually weakened. In this reaches dominant sedimentation process caused the tsunami deposits over 10 centimeters thick. In the reaches at about 5 kilometers from the river mouth, weakened and shallow tsunami flow went upstream through the relatively lower part. in the dry riverbed. Islands surrounded former channel courses were not damaged by the tsunami and vegetables in them grew as usual. The tsunami flooding at 6.5 kilometers from the river mouth inundated the dry riverbed and only thin deposits were left on it.

Uncertainties in the 2004 Sumatra–Andaman source through nonlinear stochastic inversion of tsunami waves

PubMed Central

Venugopal, M.; Roy, D.; Rajendran, K.; Guillas, S.; Dias, F.

2017-01-01

Numerical inversions for earthquake source parameters from tsunami wave data usually incorporate subjective elements to stabilize the search. In addition, noisy and possibly insufficient data result in instability and non-uniqueness in most deterministic inversions, which are barely acknowledged. Here, we employ the satellite altimetry data for the 2004 Sumatra–Andaman tsunami event to invert the source parameters. We also include kinematic parameters that improve the description of tsunami generation and propagation, especially near the source. Using a finite fault model that represents the extent of rupture and the geometry of the trench, we perform a new type of nonlinear joint inversion of the slips, rupture velocities and rise times with minimal a priori constraints. Despite persistently good waveform fits, large uncertainties in the joint parameter distribution constitute a remarkable feature of the inversion. These uncertainties suggest that objective inversion strategies should incorporate more sophisticated physical models of seabed deformation in order to significantly improve the performance of early warning systems. PMID:28989311

Uncertainties in the 2004 Sumatra-Andaman source through nonlinear stochastic inversion of tsunami waves.

PubMed

Gopinathan, D; Venugopal, M; Roy, D; Rajendran, K; Guillas, S; Dias, F

2017-09-01

Numerical inversions for earthquake source parameters from tsunami wave data usually incorporate subjective elements to stabilize the search. In addition, noisy and possibly insufficient data result in instability and non-uniqueness in most deterministic inversions, which are barely acknowledged. Here, we employ the satellite altimetry data for the 2004 Sumatra-Andaman tsunami event to invert the source parameters. We also include kinematic parameters that improve the description of tsunami generation and propagation, especially near the source. Using a finite fault model that represents the extent of rupture and the geometry of the trench, we perform a new type of nonlinear joint inversion of the slips, rupture velocities and rise times with minimal a priori constraints. Despite persistently good waveform fits, large uncertainties in the joint parameter distribution constitute a remarkable feature of the inversion. These uncertainties suggest that objective inversion strategies should incorporate more sophisticated physical models of seabed deformation in order to significantly improve the performance of early warning systems.

Mediterranean megaturbidite triggered by the AD 365 Crete earthquake and tsunami

PubMed Central

Polonia, Alina; Bonatti, Enrico; Camerlenghi, Angelo; Lucchi, Renata Giulia; Panieri, Giuliana; Gasperini, Luca

2013-01-01

Historian Ammianus Marcellinus documented the devastating effects of a tsunami hitting Alexandria, Egypt, on July 21, AD 365. "The solidity of the earth was made to shake … and the sea was driven away. The waters returning when least expected killed many thousands by drowning. Huge ships… perched on the roofs of houses… hurled miles from the shore….”. Other settlements around the Mediterranean were hit at roughly the same time. This scenario is similar to that of the recent Sumatra and Tohoku tsunamis. Based on geophysical surveys and sediment cores from the Ionian Sea we show that the 20–25 m thick megaturbidite known in the literature as Homogenite/Augias was triggered not by the Santorini caldera collapse but by the 365 AD Cretan earthquake/tsunami. An older similar megaturbidite was deposited after 14.590 ± 80 yr BP, implying a large recurrence time of such extreme sedimentary events in the Mediterranean Sea. PMID:23412517

Assessment of tsunami hazard to the U.S. Atlantic margin

USGS Publications Warehouse

ten Brink, Uri S.; Chaytor, Jason; Geist, Eric L.; Brothers, Daniel S.; Andrews, Brian D.

2014-01-01

Tsunamis caused by atmospheric disturbances and by coastal earthquakes may be more frequent than those generated by landslides, but their amplitudes are probably smaller. Among the possible far-field earthquake sources, only earthquakes located within the Gulf of Cadiz or west of the Tore-Madeira Rise are likely to affect the U.S. coast. It is questionable whether earthquakes on the Puerto Rico Trench are capable of producing a large enough tsunami that will affect the U.S. Atlantic coast. More information is needed to evaluate the seismic potential of the northern Cuba fold-and-thrust belt. The hazard from a volcano flank collapse in the Canary Islands is likely smaller than originally stated, and there is not enough information to evaluate the magnitude and frequency of flank collapse from the Azores Islands. Both deterministic and probabilistic methods to evaluate the tsunami hazard from the margin are available for application to the Atlantic margin, but their implementation requires more information than is currently available.

The past, present and future of tsunami field surveys post-Samoa, 2009

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Borrero, J. C.; Synolakis, C.; Okal, E.; Liu, P.; Titov, V. V.; Jaffe, B. E.; Fritz, H. M.

2009-12-01

During the past 17 years, field surveys following significant tsunamis have aimed to accurately document tsunami effects by gathering runup, inundation and sediment data while providing outreach and education to affected populations. Field observations have led to insights on tsunami dynamics which are now largely taken for granted, such as the existence of leading depression N-waves, the importance of beach topography to first order, underwater landslides as a tsunami source, and the value of public education in reducing deaths. For these surveys, an ad-hoc, interdisciplinary group of scientists under the banner of the International Tsunami Survey Team (ITST) aims to begin work in affected areas after search and rescue operations have ceased but before significant cleanup work begins. Time is of the essence in these efforts; in East Java 1994, bulldozers were cleaning up almost immediately, while in Samoa, after one week, a robust cleanup effort in some areas had left almost no evidence of the catastrophe. Eyewitness accounts, often used to provide input on wave kinematics, tend to rapidly converge on a common story rather than an individual's direct observation. The team works to quell rumors of impending tsunamis by organizing educational talks where the natural phenomenon is explained and simple steps for self-evacuation are repeated. When invited, debriefings are provided to local authorities (i.e. Nicaragua 1992, Mindoro 1994, PNG 1998, Vanuatu 1999, Peru 2001/2007, Sumatra 2004, Solomon 2007), and local scientists are engaged to be part of the survey team and generally included as coauthors on subsequent publications (i.e. Peru 2001/2007, PNG 2002, Sri Lanka 2005, Java 2006, Bengkulu 2007). In past surveys, logistics have ranged from difficult to nearly impossible (i.e. Somalia, 2005), yet outreach remains a priority; whether it is educating village chiefs in Vanuatu, relief managers in PNG, government ministers in the Maldives or assuring tribes in the Solomon Islands that it is safe to go fishing again. Despite arriving after search and rescue is over, local authorities often state that they would have preferred an earlier arrival to aid in the outreach. Since 2004, the ITST has grown and coordination of large local teams is impossible in high profile events that attract newer field scientists. Lower profile, but equally important events in terms of basic science and outreach attract fewer interested scientists. Extreme examples are the 2002 PNG and the 2007 Solomon and Bengkulu events where only 1 or 2 international researchers responded. It is important to underscore that field surveys are an important aspect of immediate relief operations and should be conducted quickly and efficiently by small teams of experienced tsunami scientists. These surveys are important in addressing the present, past and future of tsunami hazards worldwide.

Great East Japan Earthquake Tsunami

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Iijima, Y.; Minoura, K.; Hirano, S.; Yamada, T.

2011-12-01

The 11 March 2011, Mw 9.0 Great East Japan Earthquake, already among the most destructive earthquakes in modern history, emanated from a fault rupture that extended an estimated 500 km along the Pacific coast of Honshu. This earthquake is the fourth among five of the strongest temblors since AD 1900 and the largest in Japan since modern instrumental recordings began 130 years ago. The earthquake triggered a huge tsunami, which invaded the seaside areas of the Pacific coast of East Japan, causing devastating damages on the coast. Artificial structures were destroyed and planted forests were thoroughly eroded. Inrush of turbulent flows washed backshore areas and dunes. Coastal materials including beach sand were transported onto inland areas by going-up currents. Just after the occurrence of the tsunami, we started field investigation of measuring thickness and distribution of sediment layers by the tsunami and the inundation depth of water in Sendai plain. Ripple marks showing direction of sediment transport were the important object of observation. We used a soil auger for collecting sediments in the field, and sediment samples were submitted for analyzing grain size and interstitial water chemistry. Satellite images and aerial photographs are very useful for estimating the hydrogeological effects of tsunami inundation. We checked the correspondence of micro-topography, vegetation and sediment covering between before and after the tsunami. The most conspicuous phenomenon is the damage of pine forests planted in the purpose of preventing sand shifting. About ninety-five percent of vegetation coverage was lost during the period of rapid currents changed from first wave. The landward slopes of seawalls were mostly damaged and destroyed. Some aerial photographs leave detailed records of wave destruction just behind seawalls, which shows the occurrence of supercritical flows. The large-scale erosion of backshore behind seawalls is interpreted to have been caused by supercritical flows, resulting in the loss of landward seawall slopes. Such erosion was also observed at landward side of footpath between rice fields. The Sendai plain was subjected just after the main shock of the earthquake. Seawater inundation resulting from tsunami run-up lasted two months. The historical document Sandai-jitsuroku, which gives a detailed history of all of Japan, describes the Jogan earthquake and subsequent tsunami which have attacked Sendai plain in AD 869. The document describes the prolonged period of flooding, and it is suggested that co-seismic subsidence of the plain took place. The inundation area of the Jogan tsunami estimated by the distribution of tsunami deposit mostly overlaps with that of the 3.11 tsunami. Considering the very similarity of seismic shocks between the both, we interpreted the Great East Japan Earthquake Tsunami is the second coming of the Jogan Earthquake Tsunami.

An unified numerical simulation of seismic ground motion, ocean acoustics, coseismic deformations and tsunamis of 2011 Tohoku earthquake

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Maeda, T.; Furumura, T.; Noguchi, S.; Takemura, S.; Iwai, K.; Lee, S.; Sakai, S.; Shinohara, M.

2011-12-01

The fault rupture of the 2011 Tohoku (Mw9.0) earthquake spread approximately 550 km by 260 km with a long source rupture duration of ~200 s. For such large earthquake with a complicated source rupture process the radiation of seismic wave from the source rupture and initiation of tsunami due to the coseismic deformation is considered to be very complicated. In order to understand such a complicated process of seismic wave, coseismic deformation and tsunami, we proposed a unified approach for total modeling of earthquake induced phenomena in a single numerical scheme based on a finite-difference method simulation (Maeda and Furumura, 2011). This simulation model solves the equation of motion of based on the linear elastic theory with equilibrium between quasi-static pressure and gravity in the water column. The height of tsunami is obtained from this simulation as a vertical displacement of ocean surface. In order to simulate seismic waves, ocean acoustics, coseismic deformations, and tsunami from the 2011 Tohoku earthquake, we assembled a high-resolution 3D heterogeneous subsurface structural model of northern Japan. The area of simulation is 1200 km x 800 km and 120 km in depth, which have been discretized with grid interval of 1 km in horizontal directions and 0.25 km in vertical direction, respectively. We adopt a source-rupture model proposed by Lee et al. (2011) which is obtained by the joint inversion of teleseismic, near-field strong motion, and coseismic deformation. For conducting such a large-scale simulation, we fully parallelized our simulation code based on a domain-partitioning procedure which achieved a good speed-up by parallel computing up to 8192 core processors with parallel efficiency of 99.839%. The simulation result demonstrates clearly the process in which the seismic wave radiates from the complicated source rupture over the fault plane and propagating in heterogeneous structure of northern Japan. Then, generation of tsunami from coseismic ground deformation at sea floor due to the earthquake and propagation is also well demonstrated . The simulation also demonstrates that a very large slip up to 40 m at shallow plate boundary near the trench pushes up sea floor with source rupture propagation, and the highly elevated sea surface gradually start propagation as tsunamis due to the gravity. The result of simulation of vertical-component displacement waveform matches the ocean-bottom pressure gauge record which is installed just above the source fault area (Maeda et al., 2011) very consistently. Strong reverberation of the ocean-acoustic waves between sea surface and sea bottom particularly near the Japan Trench for long time after the source rupture ends is confirmed in the present simulation. Accordingly, long wavetrains of high-frequency ocean acoustic waves is developed and overlap to later tsunami waveforms as we found in the observations.

Landslide tsunami hazard in New South Wales, Australia: novel observations from 3D modelling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Power, Hannah; Clarke, Samantha; Hubble, Tom

2015-04-01

This paper examines the potential of tsunami inundation generated from two case study sites of submarine mass failures on the New South Wales coast of Australia. Two submarine mass failure events are investigated: the Bulli Slide and the Shovel Slide. Both slides are located approximately 65 km southeast of Sydney and 60 km east of the township of Wollongong. The Bulli Slide (~20 km3) and the Shovel Slide (7.97 km3) correspond to the two largest identified erosional surface submarine landslides scars of the NSW continental margin (Glenn et al. 2008; Clarke 2014) and represent examples of large to very large submarine landslide scars. The Shovel Slide is a moderately thick (80-165 m), moderately wide to wide (4.4 km) slide, and is located in 880 m water depth; and the Bulli Slide is an extremely thick (200-425 m), very wide (8.9 km) slide, and is located in 1500 m water depth. Previous work on the east Australian margin (Clarke et al., 2014) and elsewhere (Harbitz et al., 2013) suggests that submarine landslides similar to the Bulli Slide or the Shovel Slide are volumetrically large enough and occur at shallow enough water depths (400-2500 m) to generate substantial tsunamis that could cause widespread damage on the east Australian coast and threaten coastal communities (Burbidge et al. 2008; Clarke 2014; Talukder and Volker 2014). Currently, the tsunamogenic potential of these two slides has only been investigated using 2D modelling (Clarke 2014) and to date it has been difficult to establish the onshore tsunami surge characteristics for the submarine landslides with certainty. To address this knowledge gap, the forecast inundation as a result of these two mass failure events was investigated using a three-dimensional model (ANUGA) that predicts water flow resulting from natural hazard events such as tsunami (Nielsen et al., 2005). The ANUGA model solves the two-dimensional shallow water wave equations and accurately models the process of wetting and drying thus making it ideal for simulating inundation due to tsunami. The model generates a surface wave profile based on the dimensions of the submarine mass failure event using the method of Ward et al. (2005). Inundation maps are shown for these two slides and sensitivity analysis is conducted to identify the characteristics of the slides that are most influential on inundation areas and depths.

Towards an Earthquake and Tsunami Early Warning in the Caribbean

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Huerfano Moreno, V. A.; Vanacore, E. A.

2017-12-01

The Caribbean region (CR) has a documented history of large damaging earthquakes and tsunamis that have affected coastal areas, including the events of Jamaica in 1692, Virgin Islands in 1867, Puerto Rico in 1918, the Dominican Republic in 1946 and Haiti in 2010. There is clear evidence that tsunamis have been triggered by large earthquakes that deformed the ocean floor around the Caribbean Plate boundary. The CR is monitored jointly by national/regional/local seismic, geodetic and sea level networks. All monitoring institutions are participating in the UNESCO ICG/Caribe EWS, the purpose of this initiative is to minimize loss of life and destruction of property, and to mitigate against catastrophic economic impacts via promoting local research, real time (RT) earthquake, geodetic and sea level data sharing and improving warning capabilities and enhancing education and outreach strategies. Currently more than, 100 broad-band seismic, 65 sea levels and 50 GPS high rate stations are available in real or near real-time. These real-time streams are used by Local/Regional or Worldwide detection and warning institutions to provide earthquake source parameters in a timely manner. Currently, any Caribbean event detected to have a magnitude greater than 4.5 is evaluated, and sea level is measured, by the TWC for tsumanigenic potential. The regional cooperation is motivated both by research interests as well as geodetic, seismic and tsunami hazard monitoring and warning. It will allow the imaging of the tectonic structure of the Caribbean region to a high resolution which will consequently permit further understanding of the seismic source properties for moderate and large events and the application of this knowledge to procedures of civil protection. To reach its goals, the virtual network has been designed following the highest technical standards: BB sensors, 24 bits A/D converters with 140 dB dynamic range, real-time telemetry. Here we will discuss the state of the PR component of this virtual network as well as current advances in the imaging of the PR tectonic structure. The goal of this presentation is to describe the Puerto Rico Seismic Network (PRSN) system, including the real time earthquake and tsunami monitoring as well as the specific protocols used to broadcast earthquake/tsunami messages locally.

Reevaluation of tsunami formation by debris avalanche at Augustine Volcano, Alaska

USGS Publications Warehouse

Waythomas, C.F.

2000-01-01

Debris avalanches entering the sea at Augustine Volcano, Alaska have been proposed as a mechanism for generating tsunamis. Historical accounts of the 1883 eruption of the volcano describe 6- to 9-meter-high waves that struck the coastline at English Bay (Nanwalek), Alaska about 80 kilometers east of Augustine Island. These accounts are often cited as proof that volcanigenic tsunamis from Augustine Volcano are significant hazards to the coastal zone of lower Cook Inlet. This claim is disputed because deposits of unequivocal tsunami origin are not evident at more than 50 sites along the lower Cook Inlet coastline where they might be preserved. Shallow water (<25 m) around Augustine Island, in the run-out zone for debris avalanches, limits the size of an avalanche-caused wave. If the two most recent debris avalanches, Burr Point (A.D. 1883) and West Island (<500 yr. B.P.) were traveling at velocities in the range of 50 to 100 meters per second, the kinetic energy of the avalanches at the point of impact with the ocean would have been between 1014 and 1015 joules. Although some of this energy would be dissipated through boundary interactions and momentum transfer between the avalanche and the sea, the initial wave should have possessed sufficient kinetic energy to do geomorphic work (erosion, sediment transport, formation of wave-cut features) on the coastline of lowwer Cook Inlet. Because widespread evidence of the effects of large waves cannot be found, it appears that the debris avalanches could not have been traveling very fast when they entered the sea, or they happened during low tide and displaced only small volumes of water. In light of these results, the hazard from volcanigenic tsunamis from Augustine Volcano appears minor, unless a very large debris avalanche occurs at high tide.

Quantification of source uncertainties in Seismic Probabilistic Tsunami Hazard Analysis (SPTHA)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Selva, J.; Tonini, R.; Molinari, I.; Tiberti, M. M.; Romano, F.; Grezio, A.; Melini, D.; Piatanesi, A.; Basili, R.; Lorito, S.

2016-06-01

We propose a procedure for uncertainty quantification in Probabilistic Tsunami Hazard Analysis (PTHA), with a special emphasis on the uncertainty related to statistical modelling of the earthquake source in Seismic PTHA (SPTHA), and on the separate treatment of subduction and crustal earthquakes (treated as background seismicity). An event tree approach and ensemble modelling are used in spite of more classical approaches, such as the hazard integral and the logic tree. This procedure consists of four steps: (1) exploration of aleatory uncertainty through an event tree, with alternative implementations for exploring epistemic uncertainty; (2) numerical computation of tsunami generation and propagation up to a given offshore isobath; (3) (optional) site-specific quantification of inundation; (4) simultaneous quantification of aleatory and epistemic uncertainty through ensemble modelling. The proposed procedure is general and independent of the kind of tsunami source considered; however, we implement step 1, the event tree, specifically for SPTHA, focusing on seismic source uncertainty. To exemplify the procedure, we develop a case study considering seismic sources in the Ionian Sea (central-eastern Mediterranean Sea), using the coasts of Southern Italy as a target zone. The results show that an efficient and complete quantification of all the uncertainties is feasible even when treating a large number of potential sources and a large set of alternative model formulations. We also find that (i) treating separately subduction and background (crustal) earthquakes allows for optimal use of available information and for avoiding significant biases; (ii) both subduction interface and crustal faults contribute to the SPTHA, with different proportions that depend on source-target position and tsunami intensity; (iii) the proposed framework allows sensitivity and deaggregation analyses, demonstrating the applicability of the method for operational assessments.

Impact of earthquake-induced tsunamis on public health

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mavroulis, Spyridon; Mavrouli, Maria; Lekkas, Efthymios; Tsakris, Athanassios

2017-04-01

Tsunamis are caused by rapid sea floor displacement during earthquakes, landslides and large explosive eruptions in marine environment setting. Massive amounts of sea water in the form of devastating surface waves travelling hundreds of kilometers per hour have the potential to cause extensive damage to coastal infrastructures, considerable loss of life and injury and emergence of infectious diseases (ID). This study involved an extensive and systematic literature review of 50 research publications related to public health impact of the three most devastating tsunamis of the last 12 years induced by great earthquakes, namely the 2004 Sumatra-Andaman earthquake (moment magnitude Mw 9.2), the 2009 Samoa earthquake (Mw 8.1) and the 2011 Tōhoku (Japan) earthquake (Mw 9.0) in the Indian, Western Pacific and South Pacific Oceans respectively. The inclusion criteria were literature type comprising journal articles and official reports, natural disaster type including tsunamis induced only by earthquakes, population type including humans, and outcome measure characterized by disease incidence increase. The potential post-tsunami ID are classified into 11 groups including respiratory, pulmonary, wound-related, water-borne, skin, vector-borne, eye, fecal-oral, food-borne, fungal and mite-borne ID. Respiratory infections were detected after all the above mentioned tsunamis. Wound-related, skin and water-borne ID were observed after the 2004 and 2011 tsunamis, while vector-borne, fecal-oral and eye ID were observed only after the 2004 tsunami and pulmonary, food-borne and mite-borne ID were diagnosed only after the 2011 tsunami. Based on available age and genre data, it is concluded that the most vulnerable population groups are males, children (age ≤ 15 years) and adults (age ≥ 65 years). Tetanus and pneumonia are the deadliest post-tsunami ID. The detected risk factors include (1) lowest socioeconomic conditions, poorly constructed buildings and lack of prevention measures, (2) lack of awareness and prior warning resulting in little time for preparedness or evacuation, (3) severely injured tsunami survivors exposed to high pathogen densities in soil and water, (4) destruction of critical infrastructures including health care systems causing delayed management and treatment of severe cases, (5) aggravating post-tsunami weather conditions, (6) formation of extensive potential vector breeding sites due to flooding, (7) overcrowded conditions in evacuation shelters characterized by small places, inadequate air ventilation, poor hand hygiene and dysfunction of the public health system, (8) low vaccination coverage, (9) poor personal hygiene, (10) minimum precautions against food contamination and (11) dependency of young children and weaker physical strength and resilience of elders needing assistance with daily activities. In conclusion, our study referred to potential ID following tsunamis induced after great earthquakes during the last 12 years. The establishment of strong disaster preparedness plans characterized by adequate environmental planning, resistant infrastructures and resilient health facilities is significant for the early detection, surveillance and control of emerging ID. Moreover, the establishment and the unceasing function of reliable early warning systems may help mitigate tsunami-related impact on public health.

Towards to Resilience Science -Research on the Nankai trough seismogenic zone-

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kaneda, Yoshiyuki; Shiraki, Wataru; Fujisawa, Kazuhito; Tokozakura, Eiji

2017-04-01

For the last few decades, many destructive earthquakes and tsunamis occurred in the world. Based on lessons learnt from 2004 Sumatra Earthquake/Tsunamis, 2010 Chilean Earthquake/Tsunami and 2011 East Japan Earthquake/Tsunami, we recognized the importance of real time monitoring on Earthquakes and Tsunamis for disaster mitigation. Recently, Kumamoto Earthquake occurred in 2006. This destructive Earthquake indicated that multi strong motions including pre shock and main shock generated severe earthquake damages buildings. Furthermore, we recognize recovers/ revivals are very important and difficult. In Tohoku area damaged by large tsunamis, recovers/revivals have been under progressing after over 5 years passed after the 2011 Tohoku Earthquake. Therefore, we have to prepare the pre plan before next destructive disasters such as the Nankai trough mega thrust earthquake. As one of disaster countermeasures, we would like to propose that Disaster Mitigation Science. This disaster mitigation science is including engineering, science, medicine and social science such as sociology, informatics, law, literature, art, psychology etc. For Urgent evacuations, there are some kinds of real time monitoring system such as Dart buoy and ocean floor network. Especially, the real time monitoring system using multi kinds of sensors such as the accelerometer, broadband seismometer, pressure gauge, difference pressure gauge, hydrophone and thermometer is indispensable for Earthquakes/ Tsunamis monitoring. Furthermore, using multi kind of sensors, we can analyze and estimate broadband crustal activities around mega thrust earthquake seismogenic zones. Therefore, we deployed DONET1 and DONET2 which are dense ocean floor networks around the Nankai trough Southwestern Japan. We will explain about Resilience Science and real time monitoring systems around the Nankai trough seismogenic zone.

Preliminary report on crustal deformation surveys and tsunami measurements caused by the July 17, 2006 South off Java Island Earthquake and Tsunami, Indonesia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kato, T.; Ito, T.; Abidin, H. Z.; Agustan

2007-09-01

A large earthquake (Mw=7.7) along a plate boundary occurred in the south of Java Island on July 17, 2006, and caused a significant tsunami. We made GPS observations and tsunami heights measurements during the period from July 24 to August 1, 2006. The earthquake seems to be due to an interplate low angle reverse faulting, though there might be a possibility of high angle faulting within the subducting lithosphere. Crustal deformation distribution due to the earthquake, aided by tsunami heights measurements, might clarify which would be the case. We occupied 29 sites by GPS in the area of southern Java encompassing the area from 107.8 E to 109.50 E. These sites were occupied once before the earthquake. However, we were not able to detect significant co-seismic displacements. The obtained displacements, most of which span several years, show ESE direction in ITRF2000 frame. This represents the direction of Sunda block motion. The tsunami heights measured at 11 sites were 6-7 m along the southern coast of Java and indicate that the observed heights are systematically higher than those estimated from numerical simulations that are based on seismic data analysis. This might suggest that fault offsets might have been larger - nearly double - than those estimated using seismic analysis. These results lead us to an idea that the rupture was very slow. If this is the case, the earthquake might have been a "tsunami earthquake" that is similar to the one that occurred on June 2, 1994 in the east of the present earthquake.

Rupture process of the 2010 Mw 7.8 Mentawai tsunami earthquake from joint inversion of near-field hr-GPS and teleseismic body wave recordings constrained by tsunami observations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yue, Han; Lay, Thorne; Rivera, Luis; Bai, Yefei; Yamazaki, Yoshiki; Cheung, Kwok Fai; Hill, Emma M.; Sieh, Kerry; Kongko, Widjo; Muhari, Abdul

2014-07-01

The 25 October 2010 Mentawai tsunami earthquake (Mw 7.8) ruptured the shallow portion of the Sunda megathrust seaward of the Mentawai Islands, offshore of Sumatra, Indonesia, generating a strong tsunami that took 509 lives. The rupture zone was updip of those of the 12 September 2007 Mw 8.5 and 7.9 underthrusting earthquakes. High-rate (1 s sampling) GPS instruments of the Sumatra GPS Array network deployed on the Mentawai Islands and Sumatra mainland recorded time-varying and static ground displacements at epicentral distances from 49 to 322 km. Azimuthally distributed tsunami recordings from two deepwater sensors and two tide gauges that have local high-resolution bathymetric information provide additional constraints on the source process. Finite-fault rupture models, obtained by joint inversion of the high-rate (hr)-GPS time series and numerous teleseismic broadband P and S wave seismograms together with iterative forward modeling of the tsunami recordings, indicate rupture propagation ~50 km up dip and ~100 km northwest along strike from the hypocenter, with a rupture velocity of ~1.8 km/s. Subregions with large slip extend from 7 to 10 km depth ~80 km northwest from the hypocenter with a maximum slip of 8 m and from ~5 km depth to beneath thin horizontal sedimentary layers beyond the prism deformation front for ~100 km along strike, with a localized region having >15 m of slip. The seismic moment is 7.2 × 1020 N m. The rupture model indicates that local heterogeneities in the shallow megathrust can accumulate strain that allows some regions near the toe of accretionary prisms to fail in tsunami earthquakes.

Prevalence and Risk Factors for Depressive Reaction among Resident Survivors after the Tsunami following the Great East Japan Earthquake, March 11, 2011

PubMed Central

Matsubara, Chieko; Murakami, Hitoshi; Imai, Koubun; Mizoue, Tetsuya; Akashi, Hidechika; Miyoshi, Chiaki; Nakasa, Tamotsu

2014-01-01

Objectives The Great East Japan Earthquake caused a gigantic tsunami which devastated coastal areas of northern Japan on 11 March 2011. Despite the large number of ‘resident survivors’ who continued to reside in their damaged houses on the second or upper floors, research on the mental health of these individuals has been limited. This study explored the prevalence of depressive reaction and risk factors for depressive reaction among these resident survivors. Methods A cross-sectional household health support needs screening was conducted for resident survivors in Higashi-Matsushima city, Miyagi prefecture, two to four months after the tsunami. The health interview that was conducted including mental status, assessed by the Patient Health Questionnaire-2 (PHQ-2). Results Of 5,454 respondents, 8.1% had depressive reaction. After adjustment by the number of weeks from the tsunami and the mortality rate at each respondent's place of residence, depressive reaction was significantly associated with house flooding below or above the ground floor (odds ratios of 1.92, 2.36, respectively), the unavailability of gas supply (odds ratio, 1.67), being female (odds ratio, 1.47), middle aged or elderly (odds ratios of 2.41, 2.42, respectively), regular intake of psychotropic medicine(s) since before the tsunami (odds ratio, 2.53) and the presence of one to five or more than six cohabiters (odds ratios of 0.61, 0.52, respectively). Conclusions The results suggest a considerable psychological burden (depressive reaction) following the tsunami among resident survivors. Special supports for families with psychiatric problems need to be considered among resident survivors. Restoration of lifeline utilities and the strengthening of social ties of persons living alone may help prevent depressive reaction among resident survivors after a tsunami. PMID:25279563

Prevalence and risk factors for depressive reaction among resident survivors after the tsunami following the Great East Japan Earthquake, March 11, 2011.

PubMed

Matsubara, Chieko; Murakami, Hitoshi; Imai, Koubun; Mizoue, Tetsuya; Akashi, Hidechika; Miyoshi, Chiaki; Nakasa, Tamotsu

2014-01-01

The Great East Japan Earthquake caused a gigantic tsunami which devastated coastal areas of northern Japan on 11 March 2011. Despite the large number of 'resident survivors' who continued to reside in their damaged houses on the second or upper floors, research on the mental health of these individuals has been limited. This study explored the prevalence of depressive reaction and risk factors for depressive reaction among these resident survivors. A cross-sectional household health support needs screening was conducted for resident survivors in Higashi-Matsushima city, Miyagi prefecture, two to four months after the tsunami. The health interview that was conducted including mental status, assessed by the Patient Health Questionnaire-2 (PHQ-2). Of 5,454 respondents, 8.1% had depressive reaction. After adjustment by the number of weeks from the tsunami and the mortality rate at each respondent's place of residence, depressive reaction was significantly associated with house flooding below or above the ground floor (odds ratios of 1.92, 2.36, respectively), the unavailability of gas supply (odds ratio, 1.67), being female (odds ratio, 1.47), middle aged or elderly (odds ratios of 2.41, 2.42, respectively), regular intake of psychotropic medicine(s) since before the tsunami (odds ratio, 2.53) and the presence of one to five or more than six cohabiters (odds ratios of 0.61, 0.52, respectively). The results suggest a considerable psychological burden (depressive reaction) following the tsunami among resident survivors. Special supports for families with psychiatric problems need to be considered among resident survivors. Restoration of lifeline utilities and the strengthening of social ties of persons living alone may help prevent depressive reaction among resident survivors after a tsunami.

Long-term mental health outcomes following the 2004 Asian tsunami disaster

PubMed Central

Kar, Nilamadhab; Krishnaraaj, Rameshraj; Rameshraj, Kavitha

2014-01-01

There is inadequate information on the long-term mental health outcomes among disaster victims in low and middle income countries. It is especially so for the vast majority of victims who are indirectly exposed to disasters. To address this gap in knowledge we examined the prevalence of psychiatric morbidity, particularly anxiety, depression and post-traumatic stress disorder (PTSD) in the 2004 Asian tsunami victims in India, 4.5 y after the disaster. It was also intended to compare the mental health outcomes of the victims with direct exposure to tsunami waters and those who were indirectly exposed to tsunami disaster (people living near the sea who escaped tsunami waters but witnessed the disaster and suffered various losses). In a cross-sectional epidemiological study, 666 randomly selected victims in South India were assessed for psychiatric morbidity through the Self-Reporting questionnaire (SRQ), Zung Self-Rating Depression Scale, Zung Self-Rating Anxiety Scale, Self-Rating Scale for PTSD (SRS-PTSD) and suicidality screening. The disaster experience, quality of life and socio-demographic profile were also assessed. Psychiatric morbidity based on SRQ was 77.6% and estimated prevalence of anxiety symptoms (23.1%), depression (33.6%), PTSD (70.9%) and comorbidity (44.7%) suggested nature and extent of the psychiatric morbidity in the tsunami victims. The direct exposure group had a significantly greater proportion of psychiatric morbidity based on SRQ, anxiety symptoms and suicide attempts. Factors which predicted psychiatric morbidity were: lack of formal education, perception of disaster as highly stressful, damage to home and loss of livelihood and livestock. In conclusion, a large proportion of Asian tsunami victims were observed to have continuing mental health problems 4.5 y after the disaster, which highlighted the need for psychiatric services for the affected communities. PMID:28228999

Landslide Tsunami Hazard in Madeira Island, NE Atlantic - Numerical Simulation of the 4 March 1930 Tsunami

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Omira, R.; Baptista, M. A.; Quartau, R.; Ramalho, M. I.

2017-12-01

Madeira, the main Island of the Madeira Archipelago with an area of 728 km2, is a North East Atlantic volcanic Island highly susceptible to cliff instability. Historical records contain accounts of a number of mass-wasting events along the Island, namely in 1969, 1804, 1929 and 1930. Collapses of cliffs are major hazards in oceanic Islands as they involve relatively large volumes of material, generating fast running debris avalanches, and even cause destructive tsunamis when entering the sea. On March 4th, 1930, a sector of the Cape Girão cliff, located in the southern shore of Madeira Island, collapsed into the sea and generated an 8 m tsunami wave height. The landslide-induced tsunami propagated along Madeirás south coast and flooded the Vigário beach, 200-300 m of inundation extent, causing 20 casualties. In this study, we investigate the 1930 subaerial landslide-induced tsunami and its impact on the nearest coasts using numerical modelling. We first reconstruct the pre-event morphology of the area, and then simulate the initial movement of the sliding mass, the propagation of the tsunami wave and the inundation of the coast. We use a multi-layer numerical model, in which the lower layer represents the deformable slide, assumed to be a visco-plastic fluid, and bounded above by air, in the subaerial motion phase, and by seawater governed by shallow water equations. The results of the simulation are compared with the historical descriptions of the event to calibrate the numerical model and evaluate the coastal impact of a similar event in present-day coastline configuration of the Island. This work is supported by FCT- project UID/GEO/50019/2013 - Instituto Dom Luiz and by TROYO project.

Contribution of ionospheric monitoring to tsunami warning: results from a benchmark exercise

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rolland, L.; Makela, J. J.; Drob, D. P.; Occhipinti, G.; Lognonne, P. H.; Kherani, E. A.; Sladen, A.; Rakoto, V.; Grawe, M.; Meng, X.; Komjathy, A.; Liu, T. J. Y.; Astafyeva, E.; Coisson, P.; Budzien, S. A.

2016-12-01

Deep ocean pressure sensors have proven very effective to quantify tsunami waves in real-time. Yet, the cost of these sensors and maintenance strongly limit the extensive deployment of dense networks. Thus a complete observation of the tsunami wave-field is not possible so far. In the last decade, imprints of moderate to large transpacific tsunami wave-fields have been registered in the ionosphere through the atmospheric internal gravity wave coupled with the tsunami during its propagation. Those ionospheric observations could provide a an additional description of the phenomenon with a high spatial coverage. Ionospheric observations have been supported by numerical modeling of the ocean-atmosphere-ionosphere coupling, developed by different groups. We present here the first results of a cross-validation exercise aimed at testing various forward simulation techniques. In particular, we compare different approaches for modeling tsunami-induced gravity waves including a pseudo-spectral method, finite difference schemes, a fully coupled normal modes modeling approach, a Fourier-Laplace compressible ray-tracing solution, and a self-consistent, three-dimensional physics-based wave perturbation (WP) model based on the augmented Global Thermosphere-Ionosphere Model (WP-GITM). These models and other existing models use either a realistic sea-surface motion input model or a simple analytic model. We discuss the advantages and drawbacks of the different methods and setup common inputs to the models so that meaningful comparisons of model outputs can be made to higlight physical conclusions and understanding. Nominally, we highlight how the different models reproduce or disagree for two study cases: the ionospheric observations related to the 2012 Mw7.7 Haida Gwaii, Canada, and 2015 Mw8.3 Illapel, Chile, events. Ultimately, we explore the possibility of computing a transfer function in order to convert ionospheric perturbations directly into tsunami height estimates.

Development of Parallel Code for the Alaska Tsunami Forecast Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bahng, B.; Knight, W. R.; Whitmore, P.

2014-12-01

The Alaska Tsunami Forecast Model (ATFM) is a numerical model used to forecast propagation and inundation of tsunamis generated by earthquakes and other means in both the Pacific and Atlantic Oceans. At the U.S. National Tsunami Warning Center (NTWC), the model is mainly used in a pre-computed fashion. That is, results for hundreds of hypothetical events are computed before alerts, and are accessed and calibrated with observations during tsunamis to immediately produce forecasts. ATFM uses the non-linear, depth-averaged, shallow-water equations of motion with multiply nested grids in two-way communications between domains of each parent-child pair as waves get closer to coastal waters. Even with the pre-computation the task becomes non-trivial as sub-grid resolution gets finer. Currently, the finest resolution Digital Elevation Models (DEM) used by ATFM are 1/3 arc-seconds. With a serial code, large or multiple areas of very high resolution can produce run-times that are unrealistic even in a pre-computed approach. One way to increase the model performance is code parallelization used in conjunction with a multi-processor computing environment. NTWC developers have undertaken an ATFM code-parallelization effort to streamline the creation of the pre-computed database of results with the long term aim of tsunami forecasts from source to high resolution shoreline grids in real time. Parallelization will also permit timely regeneration of the forecast model database with new DEMs; and, will make possible future inclusion of new physics such as the non-hydrostatic treatment of tsunami propagation. The purpose of our presentation is to elaborate on the parallelization approach and to show the compute speed increase on various multi-processor systems.

The Numerical Technique for the Landslide Tsunami Simulations Based on Navier-Stokes Equations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kozelkov, A. S.

2017-12-01

The paper presents an integral technique simulating all phases of a landslide-driven tsunami. The technique is based on the numerical solution of the system of Navier-Stokes equations for multiphase flows. The numerical algorithm uses a fully implicit approximation method, in which the equations of continuity and momentum conservation are coupled through implicit summands of pressure gradient and mass flow. The method we propose removes severe restrictions on the time step and allows simulation of tsunami propagation to arbitrarily large distances. The landslide origin is simulated as an individual phase being a Newtonian fluid with its own density and viscosity and separated from the water and air phases by an interface. The basic formulas of equation discretization and expressions for coefficients are presented, and the main steps of the computation procedure are described in the paper. To enable simulations of tsunami propagation across wide water areas, we propose a parallel algorithm of the technique implementation, which employs an algebraic multigrid method. The implementation of the multigrid method is based on the global level and cascade collection algorithms that impose no limitations on the paralleling scale and make this technique applicable to petascale systems. We demonstrate the possibility of simulating all phases of a landslide-driven tsunami, including its generation, propagation and uprush. The technique has been verified against the problems supported by experimental data. The paper describes the mechanism of incorporating bathymetric data to simulate tsunamis in real water areas of the world ocean. Results of comparison with the nonlinear dispersion theory, which has demonstrated good agreement, are presented for the case of a historical tsunami of volcanic origin on the Montserrat Island in the Caribbean Sea.

Simulation of the Tsunami Resulting from the M 9.2 2004 Sumatra-Andaman Earthquake - Dynamic Rupture vs. Seismic Inversion Source Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vater, Stefan; Behrens, Jörn

2017-04-01

Simulations of historic tsunami events such as the 2004 Sumatra or the 2011 Tohoku event are usually initialized using earthquake sources resulting from inversion of seismic data. Also, other data from ocean buoys etc. is sometimes included in the derivation of the source model. The associated tsunami event can often be well simulated in this way, and the results show high correlation with measured data. However, it is unclear how the derived source model compares to the particular earthquake event. In this study we use the results from dynamic rupture simulations obtained with SeisSol, a software package based on an ADER-DG discretization solving the spontaneous dynamic earthquake rupture problem with high-order accuracy in space and time. The tsunami model is based on a second-order Runge-Kutta discontinuous Galerkin (RKDG) scheme on triangular grids and features a robust wetting and drying scheme for the simulation of inundation events at the coast. Adaptive mesh refinement enables the efficient computation of large domains, while at the same time it allows for high local resolution and geometric accuracy. The results are compared to measured data and results using earthquake sources based on inversion. With the approach of using the output of actual dynamic rupture simulations, we can estimate the influence of different earthquake parameters. Furthermore, the comparison to other source models enables a thorough comparison and validation of important tsunami parameters, such as the runup at the coast. This work is part of the ASCETE (Advanced Simulation of Coupled Earthquake and Tsunami Events) project, which aims at an improved understanding of the coupling between the earthquake and the generated tsunami event.

Field Investigations and a Tsunami Modeling for the 1766 Marmara Sea Earthquake, Turkey

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Aykurt Vardar, H.; Altinok, Y.; Alpar, B.; Unlu, S.; Yalciner, A. C.

2016-12-01

Turkey is located on one of the world's most hazardous earthquake zones. The northern branch of the North Anatolian fault beneath the Sea of Marmara, where the population is most concentrated, is the most active fault branch at least since late Pliocene. The Sea of Marmara region has been affected by many large tsunamigenic earthquakes; the most destructive ones are 549, 553, 557, 740, 989, 1332, 1343, 1509, 1766, 1894, 1912 and 1999 events. In order to understand and determine the tsunami potential and their possible effects along the coasts of this inland sea, detailed documentary, geophysical and numerical modelling studies are needed on the past earthquakes and their associated tsunamis whose effects are presently unknown.On the northern coast of the Sea of Marmara region, the Kucukcekmece Lagoon has a high potential to trap and preserve tsunami deposits. Within the scope of this study, lithological content, composition and sources of organic matters in the lagoon's bottom sediments were studied along a 4.63 m-long piston core recovered from the SE margin of the lagoon. The sedimentary composition and possible sources of the organic matters along the core were analysed and their results were correlated with the historical events on the basis of dating results. Finally, a tsunami scenario was tested for May 22nd 1766 Marmara Sea Earthquake by using a widely used tsunami simulation model called NAMIDANCE. The results show that the candidate tsunami deposits at the depths of 180-200 cm below the lagoons bottom were related with the 1766 (May) earthquake. This work was supported by the Scientific Research Projects Coordination Unit of Istanbul University (Project 6384) and by the EU project TRANSFER for coring.

Field Observations Of The 29 September Tsunami In American Samoa: Spatial Variability And Indications Of Strong Return Flow

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jaffe, B. E.; Richmond, B. M.; Gelfenbaum, G. R.; Watt, S.; Apotsos, A. A.; Buckley, M. L.; Dudley, W. C.; Peck, B.

2009-12-01

The 29 September 2009 tsunami caused 181 fatalities and displaced more than 5000 people on the islands of Samoa, American Samoa, and Tonga. This is the first tsunami to cause significant damage and fatalities on U.S. soil in more than 30 years. Scientists from around the world quickly mobilized to help document the tsunami water levels before this ephemeral data was forever lost as recovery activities and natural processes overtook the effected area. A USGS team collected data in American Samoa from October 6-22 and November 5-12, 2009. The tsunami was large, reaching elevations of greater than 15 m, however wave heights and devastation varied from village to village in American Samoa. Even within villages, some structures were completely destroyed, some flooded and left standing, and others barely touched. Wave heights, flow depths, runup heights, inundation distances, and flow directions were collected for use in ground-truthing inundation models. The team also collected nearshore bathymetry, topography and reef flat elevation, sediment samples, and documented the distribution and characteristics of both sand and boulder deposits. Eyewitness accounts of the tsunami were also videotaped. One striking aspect of this tsunami was the abundance of indicators of strong return flow. For example at Poloa in the northwest of Tutuila, where the runup was greater than 11 m along a 300-m stretch of coast and flow depths exceeded 4 m, the coral reef flat was strewn with debris including chairs, desks, and books from a school. On land, River channels were excavated and new channels formed as return flow scoured sediment and transported it offshore. Possible causes for the strong return flow and the relation between the stength of the return flow, inundation distance, and runup in American Samoa are presented. These relationships and others based on data collected by field survey teams will ultimately reduce loss of life and destruction from tsunamis in the Pacific and elsewhere.

Variations in population exposure and evacuation potential to multiple tsunami evacuation phases on Alameda and Bay Farm Islands, California

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Peters, J.

2015-12-01

Planning for a tsunami evacuation is challenging for California communities due to the variety of earthquake sources that could generate a tsunami. A maximum tsunami inundation zone is currently the basis for all tsunami evacuations in California, although an Evacuation Playbook consisting of specific event-based evacuation phases relating to flooding severity is in development. We chose to investigate the Evacuation Playbook approach for the island community of Alameda, CA since past reports estimated a significant difference in numbers of residents in the maximum inundation zone when compared to an event-based inundation zone. In order to recognize variations in the types of residents and businesses within each phase, a population exposure analysis was conducted for each of the four Alameda evacuation phases. A pedestrian evacuation analysis using an anisotropic, path distance model was also conducted to understand the time it would take for populations to reach high ground by foot. Initial results suggest that the two islands of the City of Alameda have different situations when it comes to the four tsunami evacuation phases. Pedestrian evacuation results suggest that Bay Farm Island would have more success evacuating by vehicle due to limited nearby high ground for pedestrians to reach safety. Therefore, agent-based traffic simulation software was used to model vehicle evacuation off Bay Farm Island. Initial results show that Alameda Island could face challenges evacuating numerous boat docks and a large beach for phases 1 and 2, whereas Bay Farm Island is unaffected at these phases but might be challenged with evacuating by vehicle for phases 3 and maximum due to congestion on limited egress routes. A better understanding of the population exposure within each tsunami Evacuation Playbook phase and the time it would take to evacuate out of each phase by foot or vehicle will help emergency managers implement the evacuation phases during an actual tsunami event.

Tsunami Evacuation Exercises: the Case of Heraklion, Crete Isl., Greece

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Triantafyllou, I.; Charalampakis, M.; Bocchini, G. M.; Novikova, T.; Papadopoulos, G. A.

2016-12-01

Effective tsunami evacuation requires appropriate awareness as regards good shelters selection. Field exercises may improve public awareness. A field exercise was organized in Heraklion, Crete Isl., in 2016. The area is part of the Hellenic Arc which is the most active structure in the Mediterranean. Large earthquakes triggered tsunamis that hit Heraklion in the past, such in AD 1303. After selecting various fault models, simulation of the 1303 tsunami showed important inundation zone in Heraklion. For the exercise needs a team of 30 volunteers was divided in 3 groups of 10 people each. Everyone was equipped with a mobile phone and a GPS device. The 3 groups were gathered in 3 coastal spots Heraklion situated 400 m apart each other. The scenario was that immediately after receiving in their mobile a tsunami warning message they will set on their personal GPS device and start evacuating inland on the best way they believed to do so. In each group, only 5 out of 10 volunteers were notified beforehand that the Eleftherias Square, located inland at distance satisfying evacuation needs in case of repeat of the 1303 tsunami, would be a good shelter to go. Using the Road Graph Plugin of QGIS, we calculated the shortest path distances which found equal to 800, 700 and 680 m. Adopting average velocity of 3 km/h we found that these distances can be covered within 18, 16 and 15 min, respectively. The routes towards the settlement spots as well as the times needed to arrive there by each one of the 30 volunteers were recorded by their personal GPS devices. The processing of the GPS tracks and their comparison with the theoretical routes and times showed good evacuation performance which is encouraging for the next phases of the Heraklion tsunami hazard mitigation program. This is contribution to the EU-FP7 projects ZIP (Zooming In between Plates, grant no: 604713, 2013) and ASTARTE (Assessment, Strategy And Risk Reduction for Tsunamis in Europe), grant no: 603839, 2013.

A GIS Representation of 1964 Tsunami Damage in Crescent City, California

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Velasco Campos, C. J.; Dengler, L. A.

2013-12-01

The March 1964 Alaska tsunami caused major damage in Alaska and also impacted the west coast of North America. Crescent City, California, 3000 km away from the source region, suffered the greatest damage outside Alaska. Twenty-nine blocks of the downtown and harbor areas were inundated and nearly 300 homes and businesses damaged or destroyed. In the aftermath of the tsunami, numerous maps, reports and photographs of the impacts in Crescent City were released, some by engineers and scientists, and much by individuals and the popular press. The Del Norte Historical Society has a large amount of archival material (photographs and eye witness accounts) from the tsunami, much of which has never been thoroughly examined or correlated with other reports. In this study, we assemble all of the available information from these disparate sources into a GIS framework in order to examine the 1964 Crescent City damage in a systematic way and provide a quantitative framework for others who are modeling tsunami impacts. Using ArcGIS 10, old aerial photos, tsunami inundation maps, and photographs were georeferenced to produce GIS layers of 'before and after' Crescent City. Hyperlinks were created to connect photos with their locations in present day. We reference damage to a layer showing Magoon's 1968 map of inundation depth and extent. Structural damage falls into four main groupings: structures floated off of foundations, damage by impact from debris, pressure differences from water infilling structures, and fire. 15 structures were moved off of foundations, all in the direction of the outgoing flow. We also create layers of the structures of the modern city and the predicted tsunami run-up from a Cascadia event. Magoon, Orville T., 1966, Structural Damage by Tsunamis, Proceedings, American Society Civil Engineers, Specialty Conference on Coastal Engineering, Santa Barbara (California), Oct. 1965, pp. 35-68

The Samoa tsunami of 29 September 2009: Field survey in Samoa and preliminary modeling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Borrero, J. C.; Fritz, H. M.; Synolakis, C. E.; Weiss, R.; Okal, E. A.

2010-05-01

The Samoa tsunami of 29 September 2009 caused considerable damage and 146 deaths in the country of [ex-Western] Samoa, where the last comparable event took place in 1917. Following the event, an International Tsunami Survey Team was deployed and surveyed the inundation one week after the tsunami. Our results revealed higher values of run-up and inundation on the Southern shore of Upolu, where run-up reached 14.5 m at Lepa and 11.4 m at Lalomanu, this latter village being eradicated, with a death toll of 61. By contrast, the Northern shore was largely spared. A similar pattern was observed on the island of Savaii, but with lower run-up values, and only 2 deaths. The higher death toll in Samoa, as compared to American Samoa probably results from the combination of terrain morphology (wider coastal plains leading to longer evacuation distances), the absence of a signage project, and an unfortunate reliance on motor vehicles leading to entrapment of victims along roads often parallel to the beach. A number of numerical simulations were conducted using several models of the seismic source; they correctly predict a concentration of tsunami energy at the Southeastern corner of the island of Upolu, but also at its Southwestern end, where surveyed run-up did not exceed 5 m. All models correctly indicate that the northern coast, with the capital Apia, is spared by the tsunami, even though it had reportedly been emphasized during mitigation exercises prior to the event.

The role of deposits in tsunami risk assessment

USGS Publications Warehouse

Jaffe, B.

2008-01-01

An incomplete catalogue of tsunamis in the written record hinders tsunami risk assessment. Tsunami deposits, hard evidence of tsunami, can be used to extend the written record. The two primary factors in tsunami risk, tsunami frequency and magnitude, can be addressed through field and modeling studies of tsunami deposits. Recent research has increased the utility of tsunami deposits in tsunami risk assessment by improving the ability to identify tsunami deposits and developing models to determine tsunami magnitude from deposit characteristics. Copyright ASCE 2008.

Recent Advances in Tsunami Research - the Devil Is in the Detail

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Goff, J. R.

2014-12-01

Over little more than a decade, tsunami research has gone from a few scientists using a range of over-used black and white and colour photographs to try and convince a largely disinterested audience of the perils of tsunamis, to a highly regarded branch of the natural hazard stable populated by a plethora of researchers and disciplines. What happened? Tsunamis happened, big ones, in 2004, 2009, 2010 and 2011. In many ways we now have more data than we know what to do with. We should therefore be forgiven for appearing just a little rushed off our feet. The past decade has seen a phenomenal increase in the number of publications and, as a result, significant advances have been made in our understanding of the geological and environmental impacts of tsunamis. In the quest to better understand tsunami geology, many of us are eternally searching for the Holy Grail - the one proxy that will tell us that a deposit was laid down by a tsunami and not by a storm. Well, the one thing that recent advances have told us is that it is not that simple - the devil is in the detail, and we have plenty of that. There has been a significantly improvement in our understanding of tsunami sediments, particularly at either end of the size spectrum, greater use of microfossil data, major advances in geochemistry and the introduction of new studies such as magnetic fabric. What has been particularly satisfying for me to see has been the improved incorporation and study of proxies that are often viewed as tangential to geological data such as geomorphology, archaeology, anthropology and contextual environmental changes. The take home message is that this is a truly multi-disciplinary topic and we do ourselves a disservice if we do not embrace all the innovations available to us. Yes, in many cases we can tell the difference between a storm and a tsunami, it is just that the difference is different every time. The devil is in the detail.

Toward tsunami early warning system in Indonesia by using rapid rupture durations estimation

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Madlazim

2012-06-20

Indonesia has Indonesian Tsunami Early Warning System (Ina-TEWS) since 2008. The Ina-TEWS has used automatic processing on hypocenter; Mwp, Mw (mB) and Mj. If earthquake occurred in Ocean, depth < 70 km and magnitude > 7, then Ina-TEWS announce early warning that the earthquake can generate tsunami. However, the announcement of the Ina-TEWS is still not accuracy. Purposes of this research are to estimate earthquake rupture duration of large Indonesia earthquakes that occurred in Indian Ocean, Java, Timor sea, Banda sea, Arafura sea and Pasific ocean. We analyzed at least 330 vertical seismogram recorded by IRIS-DMC network using a directmore » procedure for rapid assessment of earthquake tsunami potential using simple measures on P-wave vertical seismograms on the velocity records, and the likelihood that the high-frequency, apparent rupture duration, T{sub dur}. T{sub dur} can be related to the critical parameters rupture length (L), depth (z), and shear modulus ({mu}) while T{sub dur} may be related to wide (W), slip (D), z or {mu}. Our analysis shows that the rupture duration has a stronger influence to generate tsunami than Mw and depth. The rupture duration gives more information on tsunami impact, Mo/{mu}, depth and size than Mw and other currently used discriminants. We show more information which known from the rupture durations. The longer rupture duration, the shallower source of the earthquake. For rupture duration greater than 50 s, the depth less than 50 km, Mw greater than 7, the longer rupture length, because T{sub dur} is proportional L and greater Mo/{mu}. Because Mo/{mu} is proportional L. So, with rupture duration information can be known information of the four parameters. We also suggest that tsunami potential is not directly related to the faulting type of source and for events that have rupture duration greater than 50 s, the earthquakes generated tsunami. With available real-time seismogram data, rapid calculation, rupture duration discriminant can be completed within 4-5 min after an earthquake occurs and thus can aid in effective, accuracy and reliable tsunami early warning for Indonesia region.« less

The Great Tohoku-Oki Earthquake and Tsunami of March 11, 2011 in Japan: A Critical Review and Evaluation of the Tsunami Source Mechanism

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pararas-Carayannis, George

2014-12-01

The great Tohoku-Oki earthquake of March 11, 2011 generated a very destructive and anomalously high tsunami. To understand its source mechanism, an examination was undertaken of the seismotectonics of the region and of the earthquake's focal mechanism, energy release, rupture patterns and spatial and temporal sequencing and clustering of major aftershocks. It was determined that the great tsunami resulted from a combination of crustal deformations of the ocean floor due to up-thrust tectonic motions, augmented by additional uplift due to the quake's slow and long rupturing process, as well as to large coseismic lateral movements which compressed and deformed the compacted sediments along the accretionary prism of the overriding plane. The deformation occurred randomly and non-uniformly along parallel normal faults and along oblique, en-echelon faults to the earthquake's overall rupture direction—the latter failing in a sequential bookshelf manner with variable slip angles. As the 1992 Nicaragua and the 2004 Sumatra earthquakes demonstrated, such bookshelf failures of sedimentary layers could contribute to anomalously high tsunamis. As with the 1896 tsunami, additional ocean floor deformation and uplift of the sediments was responsible for the higher waves generated by the 2011 earthquake. The efficiency of tsunami generation was greater along the shallow eastern segment of the fault off the Miyagi Prefecture where most of the energy release of the earthquake and the deformations occurred, while the segment off the Ibaraki Prefecture—where the rupture process was rapid—released less seismic energy, resulted in less compaction and deformation of sedimentary layers and thus to a tsunami of lesser offshore height. The greater tsunamigenic efficiency of the 2011 earthquake and high degree of the tsunami's destructiveness along Honshu's coastlines resulted from vertical crustal displacements of more than 10 m due to up-thrust faulting and from lateral compression and folding of sedimentary layers in an east-southeast direction which contributed additional uplift estimated at about 7 m—mainly along the leading segment of the accretionary prism of the overriding tectonic plate.

Scenario based tsunami wave height estimation towards hazard evaluation for the Hellenic coastline and examples of extreme inundation zones in South Aegean

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Melis, Nikolaos S.; Barberopoulou, Aggeliki; Frentzos, Elias; Krassanakis, Vassilios

2016-04-01

A scenario based methodology for tsunami hazard assessment is used, by incorporating earthquake sources with the potential to produce extreme tsunamis (measured through their capacity to cause maximum wave height and inundation extent). In the present study we follow a two phase approach. In the first phase, existing earthquake hazard zoning in the greater Aegean region is used to derive representative maximum expected earthquake magnitude events, with realistic seismotectonic source characteristics, and of greatest tsunamigenic potential within each zone. By stacking the scenario produced maximum wave heights a global maximum map is constructed for the entire Hellenic coastline, corresponding to all expected extreme offshore earthquake sources. Further evaluation of the produced coastline categories based on the maximum expected wave heights emphasizes the tsunami hazard in selected coastal zones with important functions (i.e. touristic crowded zones, industrial zones, airports, power plants etc). Owing to its proximity to the Hellenic Arc, many urban centres and being a popular tourist destination, Crete Island and the South Aegean region are given a top priority to define extreme inundation zoning. In the second phase, a set of four large coastal cities (Kalamata, Chania, Heraklion and Rethymno), important for tsunami hazard, due i.e. to the crowded beaches during the summer season or industrial facilities, are explored towards preparedness and resilience for tsunami hazard in Greece. To simulate tsunamis in the Aegean region (generation, propagation and runup) the MOST - ComMIT NOAA code was used. High resolution DEMs for bathymetry and topography were joined via an interface, specifically developed for the inundation maps in this study and with similar products in mind. For the examples explored in the present study, we used 5m resolution for the topography and 30m resolution for the bathymetry, respectively. Although this study can be considered as preliminary, it can also form the basis to further develop a scenario based inundation model database that can be used as an operational tool, for fast assessing tsunami prone zones during a real tsunami crisis.

Coastal Tsunami and Risk Assessment for Eastern Mediterranean Countries

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kentel, E.; Yavuz, C.

2017-12-01

Tsunamis are rarely experienced events that have enormous potential to cause large economic destruction on the critical infrastructures and facilities, social devastation due to mass casualty, and environmental adverse effects like erosion, accumulation and inundation. Especially for the past two decades, nations have encountered devastating tsunami events. The aim of this study is to investigate risks along the Mediterranean coastline due to probable tsunamis based on simulations using reliable historical data. In order to do this, 50 Critical Regions, CRs, (i.e. city centers, agricultural areas and summer villages) and 43 Critical Infrastructures, CIs, (i.e. airports, ports & marinas and industrial structures) are determined to perform people-centered risk assessment along Eastern Mediterranean region covering 7 countries. These countries include Turkey, Syria, Lebanon, Israel, Egypt, Cyprus, and Libya. Bathymetry of the region is given in Figure 1. In this study, NAMI-DANCE is used to carry out tsunami simulations. Source of a sample tsunami simulation and maximum wave propagation in the study area for this sample tsunami are given in Figures 2 and 3, respectively.Richter magnitude,, focal depth, time of occurrence in a day and season are considered as the independent parameters of the earthquake. Historical earthquakes are used to generate reliable probability distributions for these parameters. Monte Carlo (MC) Simulations are carried out to evaluate overall risks at the coastline. Inundation level, population density, number of passenger or employee, literacy rate, annually income level and existence of human are used in risk estimations. Within each MC simulation and for each grid in the study area, people-centered tsunami risk for each of the following elements at risk is calculated: i. City centers ii. Agricultural areas iii. Summer villages iv. Ports and marinas v. Airports vi. Industrial structures Risk levels at each grid along the shoreline are calculated based on the factors given above, grouped into low, medium and high risk, and used in generating the risk map. The risk map will be useful in prioritizing areas that require development of tsunami mitigation measures.

The Application of Speaker Recognition Techniques in the Detection of Tsunamigenic Earthquakes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gorbatov, A.; O'Connell, J.; Paliwal, K.

2015-12-01

Tsunami warning procedures adopted by national tsunami warning centres largely rely on the classical approach of earthquake location, magnitude determination, and the consequent modelling of tsunami waves. Although this approach is based on known physics theories of earthquake and tsunami generation processes, this may be the main shortcoming due to the need to satisfy minimum seismic data requirement to estimate those physical parameters. At least four seismic stations are necessary to locate the earthquake and a minimum of approximately 10 minutes of seismic waveform observation to reliably estimate the magnitude of a large earthquake similar to the 2004 Indian Ocean Tsunami Earthquake of M9.2. Consequently the total time to tsunami warning could be more than half an hour. In attempt to reduce the time of tsunami alert a new approach is proposed based on the classification of tsunamigenic and non tsunamigenic earthquakes using speaker recognition techniques. A Tsunamigenic Dataset (TGDS) was compiled to promote the development of machine learning techniques for application to seismic trace analysis and, in particular, tsunamigenic event detection, and compare them to existing seismological methods. The TGDS contains 227 off shore events (87 tsunamigenic and 140 non-tsunamigenic earthquakes with M≥6) from Jan 2000 to Dec 2011, inclusive. A Support Vector Machine classifier using a radial-basis function kernel was applied to spectral features derived from 400 sec frames of 3-comp. 1-Hz broadband seismometer data. Ten-fold cross-validation was used during training to choose classifier parameters. Voting was applied to the classifier predictions provided from each station to form an overall prediction for an event. The F1 score (harmonic mean of precision and recall) was chosen to rate each classifier as it provides a compromise between type-I and type-II errors, and due to the imbalance between the representative number of events in the tsunamigenic and non-tsunamigenic classes. The described classifier achieved an F1 score of 0.923, with tsunamigenic classification precision and recall/sensitivity of 0.928 and 0.919 respectively. The system requires a minimum of 3 stations with ~400 seconds of data each to make a prediction. The accuracy improves as further stations and data become available.

Real Time Earthquake Information System in Japan

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Doi, K.; Kato, T.

2003-12-01

An early earthquake notification system in Japan had been developed by the Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) as a governmental organization responsible for issuing earthquake information and tsunami forecasts. The system was primarily developed for prompt provision of a tsunami forecast to the public with locating an earthquake and estimating its magnitude as quickly as possible. Years after, a system for a prompt provision of seismic intensity information as indices of degrees of disasters caused by strong ground motion was also developed so that concerned governmental organizations can decide whether it was necessary for them to launch emergency response or not. At present, JMA issues the following kinds of information successively when a large earthquake occurs. 1) Prompt report of occurrence of a large earthquake and major seismic intensities caused by the earthquake in about two minutes after the earthquake occurrence. 2) Tsunami forecast in around three minutes. 3) Information on expected arrival times and maximum heights of tsunami waves in around five minutes. 4) Information on a hypocenter and a magnitude of the earthquake, the seismic intensity at each observation station, the times of high tides in addition to the expected tsunami arrival times in 5-7 minutes. To issue information above, JMA has established; - An advanced nationwide seismic network with about 180 stations for seismic wave observation and about 3,400 stations for instrumental seismic intensity observation including about 2,800 seismic intensity stations maintained by local governments, - Data telemetry networks via landlines and partly via a satellite communication link, - Real-time data processing techniques, for example, the automatic calculation of earthquake location and magnitude, the database driven method for quantitative tsunami estimation, and - Dissemination networks, via computer-to-computer communications and facsimile through dedicated telephone lines. JMA operationally monitors earthquake data and analyzes earthquake activities and tsunami occurrence round-the-clock on a real-time basis. In addition to the above, JMA has been developing a system of Nowcast Earthquake Information which can provide its users with occurrence of an earthquake prior to arrival of strong ground motion for a decade. Earthquake Research Institute, the University of Tokyo, is preparing a demonstrative experiment in collaboration with JMA, for a better utilization of Nowcast Earthquake Information to apply actual measures to reduce earthquake disasters caused by strong ground motion.

Defining Tsunami Magnitude as Measure of Potential Impact

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Titov, V. V.; Tang, L.

2016-12-01

The goal of tsunami forecast, as a system for predicting potential impact of a tsunami at coastlines, requires quick estimate of a tsunami magnitude. This goal has been recognized since the beginning of tsunami research. The work of Kajiura, Soloviev, Abe, Murty, and many others discussed several scales for tsunami magnitude based on estimates of tsunami energy. However, difficulties of estimating tsunami energy based on available tsunami measurements at coastal sea-level stations has carried significant uncertainties and has been virtually impossible in real time, before tsunami impacts coastlines. The slow process of tsunami magnitude estimates, including collection of vast amount of available coastal sea-level data from affected coastlines, made it impractical to use any tsunami magnitude scales in tsunami warning operations. Uncertainties of estimates made tsunami magnitudes difficult to use as universal scale for tsunami analysis. Historically, the earthquake magnitude has been used as a proxy of tsunami impact estimates, since real-time seismic data is available of real-time processing and ample amount of seismic data is available for an elaborate post event analysis. This measure of tsunami impact carries significant uncertainties in quantitative tsunami impact estimates, since the relation between the earthquake and generated tsunami energy varies from case to case. In this work, we argue that current tsunami measurement capabilities and real-time modeling tools allow for establishing robust tsunami magnitude that will be useful for tsunami warning as a quick estimate for tsunami impact and for post-event analysis as a universal scale for tsunamis inter-comparison. We present a method for estimating the tsunami magnitude based on tsunami energy and present application of the magnitude analysis for several historical events for inter-comparison with existing methods.

Mathematical modelling of tsunami impacts on critical infrastructures: exposure and severity associated with debris transport at Sines port, Portugal.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Conde, Daniel; Baptista, Maria Ana; Sousa Oliveira, Carlos; Ferreira, Rui M. L.

2015-04-01

Global energy production is still significantly dependant on the coal supply chain, justifying huge investments on building infrastructures, capable of stocking very large quantities of this natural resource. Most of these infrastructures are located at deep-sea ports and are therefore exposed to extreme coastal hazards, such as tsunami impacts. The 2011 Tohoku tsunami is reported to have inflicted severe damage to Japan's coal-fired power stations and related infrastructure. Sines, located in the Portuguese coast, hosts a major commercial port featuring an exposed coal stockpile area extending over more than 24 ha and a container terminal currently under expansion up to 100ha. It is protected against storm surges but tsunamis have not been considered in the design criteria. The dominant wind-generated wave direction is N to NW, while the main tsunamigenic faults are located S to SW of the port. This configuration potentially exposes sensitive facilities, such as the new terminal container and the coal stockpile area. According to a recent revision of the national tsunami catalogue (Baptista, 2009), Portugal has been affected by numerous major tsunamis over the last two millennia, with the most notorious event being the Great Lisbon Earthquake and Tsunami occurred on the 1st November 1755. The aim of this work is to simulate the open ocean propagation and overland impact of a tsunami on the Sines port, similar to the historical event of 1755, based on the different tsunamigenic faults and magnitudes proposed in the current literature. Open ocean propagation was modelled with standard simulation tools like TUNAMI and GeoClaw. Near-shore and overland propagation was carried out using a recent 2DH mathematical model for solid-fluid flows, STAV-2D from CERIS-IST (Ferreira et al., 2009; Canelas, 2013). STAV-2D is particularly suited for tsunami propagation over complex and morphodynamic geometries, featuring a discretization scheme based on a finite-volume method using a flux-splitting technique with a reviewed Roe-Riemann solver and appropriate source-term formulations to ensure full conservativeness. Additionally, STAV-2D features Lagrangian-Eulerian coupling enabling solid transport simulation under both continuum and discrete approaches, and has been validated with both laboratory data and paleo-tsunami evidence (Conde, 2013a; Conde, 2013b). The interactions between the inundating flow and coal stockpiles or natural mobile bed reaches were simulated using a continuum debris-flow approach, featuring fractional solid transport, while the containers at the new terminal were advected with an explicit Lagrangian method. The meshwork employed at the port models the existing geometry and structures in great detail, enabling explicitly resolved interactions between the current infrastructure and the overland propagating tsunami. The obtained preliminary results suggest that several structures, some of them critical in a nationwide context, are exposed to tsunami actions. The coal deposition pattern and the final location of monitored containers were determined for two magnitude scenarios (8.5 Mw and 9.5 Mw) in the case of a tsunami generated at the Horseshoe fault and one magnitude scenario (9.5 Mw) for a tsunami generated at the Gorringe bank. The inland washing of the coal stockpiles may impose great loss of both economical and environmental value, while the impact of large mobile debris, such as the containers in the terminal area, significantly increases the severity of infrastructural damage. Acknowledgements This work was partially funded by FEDER, program COMPETE, and by national funds through the Portuguese Foundation for Science and Technology (FCT) with project RECI/ECM-HID/0371/2012. References Baptista M.A. & Miranda, J.M. (2009), Revision of the Portuguese catalog of tsunamis. Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 9, 25-42. Canelas, R.; Murillo, J. & Ferreira, R.M.L. (2013), Two-dimensional depth-averaged modelling of dam-break flows over mobile beds. Vol 51(4) pp. 392-407. Conde, D. A. S.; Baptista, M. A. V.; Sousa Oliveira, C. & Ferreira, R. M. L. (2013a), A shallow-flow model for the propagation of tsunamis over complex geometries and mobile beds, Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 13, 2533-2542. Conde, D. A. S.; Canelas, R. B.; Sousa Oliveira, C. & Ferreira, R. M. L. (2013b), Mathematical modelling of transport of coal stockpiles by a tsunami at Sines port, 8th International SedNet Conference 2013, Lisbon, Portugal. Ferreira, R. M. L.; Franca, M. J.; Leal, J. G. & Cardoso, A. H. (2009), Mathematical modelling of shallow flows: Closure models drawn from grain-scale mechanics of sediment transport and flow hydrodynamics, Can. J. Civil. Eng., 36, 1604-1621, 2009.

Physical experiments and analysis on the generation and evolution of tsunami-induced turbulent coherent structures

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kalligeris, Nikos; Lynett, Patrick

2017-11-01

Numerous historical accounts describe the formation of ``whirpools'' inside ports and harbors during tsunami events, causing port operation disruptions. Videos from the Japan 2011 tsunami revealed complex nearshore flow patters, resulting from the interaction of tsunami-induced currents with the man-made coastline, and the generation of large eddies (or turbulent coherent structures) in numerous ports and harbors near the earthquake epicenter. The aim of this work is to study the generation and evolution of tsunami-induced turbulent coherent structures (TCS) in a well-controlled environment using realistic scaling. A physical configuration is created in the image of a port entrance at a scale of 1:27 and a small-amplitude, long period wave creates a transient flow through the asymmetric harbor channel. A separated region forms, which coupled with the transient flow, leads to the formation of a stable monopolar TCS. The surface flow is examined through mono- and stereo-PTV techniques to extract surface velocity vectors. Surface velocity maps and vortex flow profiles are used to study the experimental TCS generation and evolution, and characterize the TCS structure. Analytical tools are used to describe the TCS growth rate and kinetic energy decay. This work was funded by the National Science Foundation NEES Research program, with Award Number 1135026.

Dynamics and early post-tsunami evolution of floating marine debris near Fukushima Daiichi

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Matthews, John Philip; Ostrovsky, Lev; Yoshikawa, Yutaka; Komori, Satoru; Tamura, Hitoshi

2017-08-01

The devastating tsunami triggered by the Tōhoku-Oki earthquake of 11 March 2011 caused a crisis at the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear power station where it overtopped the seawall defences. On retreating, the tsunami carried loose debris and wreckage seaward and marshalled buoyant material into extensive plumes. Widespread concern over the fate of these and numerous other Tōhoku tsunami depositions prompted attempts to simulate debris dispersion throughout the wider Pacific. However, the effects of locally perturbed wind and wave fields, active Langmuir circulation and current-induced attrition determine a complex and poorly understood morphology for large floating agglomerations. Here we show that the early post-tsunami evolution of marine-debris plumes near Fukushima Daiichi was also shaped by near-surface wind modifications that took place above relatively calm (lower surface roughness) waters covered by surface films derived from oil and other contaminants. High-spatial-resolution satellite tracking reveals faster-than-expected floating-debris motions and invigorated plume evolution within these regions, while numerical modelling of turbulent air flow over the low-drag, film-covered surface predicts typically metre-per-second wind strengthening at centimetric heights, sufficient to explain the observed debris-speed increases. Wind restructuring probably stimulates the dispersion of flotsam from both biological and anthropogenic sources throughout a global ocean of highly variable surface roughness.

The 1945 Balochistan earthquake and probabilistic tsunami hazard assessment for the Makran subduction zone

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Höchner, Andreas; Babeyko, Andrey; Zamora, Natalia

2014-05-01

Iran and Pakistan are countries quite frequently affected by destructive earthquakes. For instance, the magnitude 6.6 Bam earthquake in 2003 in Iran with about 30'000 casualties, or the magnitude 7.6 Kashmir earthquake 2005 in Pakistan with about 80'000 casualties. Both events took place inland, but in terms of magnitude, even significantly larger events can be expected to happen offshore, at the Makran subduction zone. This small subduction zone is seismically rather quiescent, but a tsunami caused by a thrust event in 1945 (Balochistan earthquake) led to about 4000 casualties. Nowadays, the coastal regions are more densely populated and vulnerable to similar events. Additionally, some recent publications raise the question of the possiblity of rare but huge magnitude 9 events at the Makran subduction zone. We first model the historic Balochistan event and its effect in terms of coastal wave heights, and then generate various synthetic earthquake and tsunami catalogs including the possibility of large events in order to asses the tsunami hazard at the affected coastal regions. Finally, we show how an effective tsunami early warning could be achieved by the use of an array of high-precision real-time GNSS (Global Navigation Satellite System) receivers along the coast.

The One-Meter Criterion for Tsunami Warning: Time for a Reevaluation?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fryer, G. J.; Weinstein, S.

2013-12-01

The U.S. tsunami warning centers issue warnings when runup is anticipated to exceed one meter. The origins of the one-meter criterion are unclear, though Whitmore, et al (2008) showed from tsunami history that one meter is roughly the threshold above which damage occurs. Recent experiences in Hawaii, however, suggest that the threshold could be raised. Tsunami Warnings were issued for 2010 Chile, 2011 Tohoku, and 2012 Haida Gwaii tsunamis; each exceeded one meter runup somewhere in the State. Evacuation, however, was necessary only in 2011, and even then onshore damage (as opposed to damage from currents) occurred only where runup exceeded 1.5m. During both Chile and Haida Gwaii tsunamis the existing criteria led to unnecessary evacuation. Maximum runup during the Chile tsunami was 1.1m at Hilo's Wailoa Boat Harbor, while the Haida Gwaii tsunami peaked at 1.2m at Honouliwai Bay on Molokai. Both tsunamis caused only minor damage and minimal flooding; in both cases a Tsunami Advisory (i.e., there is no need to evacuate, but stay off the beach and out of the water) would have been adequate. The Advisory was originally developed as an ad hoc response to the mildly threatening 2006 Kuril tsunami and has since been formalized as the product we issue when maximum runup is expected to be 0.3-1.0 m. At the time it was introduced, however, there was no discussion that this new low-level warning might allow the criterion for Tsunami Warning itself to be adjusted. We now suggest that the divide between Advisory and Warning be raised from 1.0 to something greater, possibly 1.2m. If the warning threshold were raised to 1.2m, the over-warning for the Chile tsunami still could not have been avoided. Models calibrated against DART data consistently forecast runup just over 1.2m for that event. For Haida Gwaii, adjusting the models to match the DART data increased the forecast runup to almost 2m, which again meant a warning, though in retrospect we should have been skeptical. The nearest DART to Haida Gwaii was off the Washington coast in line with the long axis (strike direction) of the rupture and so provided little constraint on the tsunami directed towards Hawaii (the dip direction). The finite fault model obtained by inverting the DART data extended the rupture too far along strike and pushed the rupture to the wrong (east) side of Haida Gwaii, in conflict with the W-phase CMT. The inferred wave height at the Langara Point tide gauge, just outside the epicentral region, was also too large by a factor of two. Forcing the tsunami inversion to be consistent with the CMT would have rendered the inferred rupture much closer to reality, matched the Langara Point record well, and forecast a maximum runup at Kahului of only 1.0 m (the actual runup there was 0.8m). If the warning criterion had been 1.2m the unnecessary coastal evacuation for the Haida Gwaii tsunami could have been avoided. So increasing the warning threshold by only 20 cm would eliminate one of the two recent unnecessary evacuations. Can the threshold be be raised even more? We are considering that possibility, though the uncertainties and time constraints of an actual warning demand that we remain very conservative.

New Maps of California to Improve Tsunami Preparedness

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Barberopoulou, Aggeliki; Borrero, Jose C.; Uslu, Burak; Kalligeris, Nikos; Goltz, James D.; Wilson, Rick I.; Synolakis, Costas E.

2009-04-01

On 25 April 1992, an M 7.1 earthquake shook the coast of Cape Mendocino near Petrolia, Calif., followed by two large aftershocks (both M ˜ 6.6) the next day. Although no lives were lost in these temblors, 98 people were injured. These earthquakes heavily damaged older structures within this sparsely populated, mountainous region, causing more than US$66 million in losses. Approximately 20 minutes after the first earthquake, tide gauge stations in nearby Crescent City reported a surge—a tsunami with maximum wave heights (from trough to crest) of 1.1 meters. The tsunami hit Crescent City and Eureka at low tide. Fortunately, no damages occurred to city or harbor facilities—had this happened during high tide, it may have been a different story [McCarthy et al., 1993].

Advanced Geospatial Hydrodynamic Signals Analysis for Tsunami Event Detection and Warning

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Arbab-Zavar, Banafshe; Sabeur, Zoheir

2013-04-01

Current early tsunami warning can be issued upon the detection of a seismic event which may occur at a given location offshore. This also provides an opportunity to predict the tsunami wave propagation and run-ups at potentially affected coastal zones by selecting the best matching seismic event from a database of pre-computed tsunami scenarios. Nevertheless, it remains difficult and challenging to obtain the rupture parameters of the tsunamigenic earthquakes in real time and simulate the tsunami propagation with high accuracy. In this study, we propose a supporting approach, in which the hydrodynamic signal is systematically analysed for traces of a tsunamigenic signal. The combination of relatively low amplitudes of a tsunami signal at deep waters and the frequent occurrence of background signals and noise contributes to a generally low signal to noise ratio for the tsunami signal; which in turn makes the detection of this signal difficult. In order to improve the accuracy and confidence of detection, a re-identification framework in which a tsunamigenic signal is detected via the scan of a network of hydrodynamic stations with water level sensing is performed. The aim is to attempt the re-identification of the same signatures as the tsunami wave spatially propagates through the hydrodynamic stations sensing network. The re-identification of the tsunamigenic signal is technically possible since the tsunami signal at the open ocean itself conserves its birthmarks relating it to the source event. As well as supporting the initial detection and improving the confidence of detection, a re-identified signal is indicative of the spatial range of the signal, and thereby it can be used to facilitate the identification of certain background signals such as wind waves which do not have as large a spatial reach as tsunamis. In this paper, the proposed methodology for the automatic detection of tsunamigenic signals has been achieved using open data from NOAA with a recorded tsunami event in the Pacific Ocean. The new approach will be tested in the future on other oceanic regions including the Mediteranean Sea and North East Atlantic Ocean zones. Both authors acknowledge that the current research is currently conducted under the TRIDEC IP FP7 project[1] which involves the development of a system of systems for collaborative, complex and critical decision-support in evolving crises. [1] TRIDEC IP ICT-2009.4.3 Intelligent Information Management Project Reference: 258723. http://www.tridec-online.eu/home

Parallel simulation of tsunami inundation on a large-scale supercomputer

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Oishi, Y.; Imamura, F.; Sugawara, D.

2013-12-01

An accurate prediction of tsunami inundation is important for disaster mitigation purposes. One approach is to approximate the tsunami wave source through an instant inversion analysis using real-time observation data (e.g., Tsushima et al., 2009) and then use the resulting wave source data in an instant tsunami inundation simulation. However, a bottleneck of this approach is the large computational cost of the non-linear inundation simulation and the computational power of recent massively parallel supercomputers is helpful to enable faster than real-time execution of a tsunami inundation simulation. Parallel computers have become approximately 1000 times faster in 10 years (www.top500.org), and so it is expected that very fast parallel computers will be more and more prevalent in the near future. Therefore, it is important to investigate how to efficiently conduct a tsunami simulation on parallel computers. In this study, we are targeting very fast tsunami inundation simulations on the K computer, currently the fastest Japanese supercomputer, which has a theoretical peak performance of 11.2 PFLOPS. One computing node of the K computer consists of 1 CPU with 8 cores that share memory, and the nodes are connected through a high-performance torus-mesh network. The K computer is designed for distributed-memory parallel computation, so we have developed a parallel tsunami model. Our model is based on TUNAMI-N2 model of Tohoku University, which is based on a leap-frog finite difference method. A grid nesting scheme is employed to apply high-resolution grids only at the coastal regions. To balance the computation load of each CPU in the parallelization, CPUs are first allocated to each nested layer in proportion to the number of grid points of the nested layer. Using CPUs allocated to each layer, 1-D domain decomposition is performed on each layer. In the parallel computation, three types of communication are necessary: (1) communication to adjacent neighbours for the finite difference calculation, (2) communication between adjacent layers for the calculations to connect each layer, and (3) global communication to obtain the time step which satisfies the CFL condition in the whole domain. A preliminary test on the K computer showed the parallel efficiency on 1024 cores was 57% relative to 64 cores. We estimate that the parallel efficiency will be considerably improved by applying a 2-D domain decomposition instead of the present 1-D domain decomposition in future work. The present parallel tsunami model was applied to the 2011 Great Tohoku tsunami. The coarsest resolution layer covers a 758 km × 1155 km region with a 405 m grid spacing. A nesting of five layers was used with the resolution ratio of 1/3 between nested layers. The finest resolution region has 5 m resolution and covers most of the coastal region of Sendai city. To complete 2 hours of simulation time, the serial (non-parallel) computation took approximately 4 days on a workstation. To complete the same simulation on 1024 cores of the K computer, it took 45 minutes which is more than two times faster than real-time. This presentation discusses the updated parallel computational performance and the efficient use of the K computer when considering the characteristics of the tsunami inundation simulation model in relation to the characteristics and capabilities of the K computer.

Direct evidence for impact winter following the Cretaceous-Paleogene bolide impact

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vellekoop, J.; Sluijs, A.; Smit, J.; Schouten, S.; Sinninghe Damsté, J. S.; Brinkhuis, H.

2012-12-01

The Cretaceous/Paleogene (K/Pg) boundary, ~65.5 Ma, marks a mass-extinction event related the impact of a large asteroid on the Yucatan peninsula, Mexico. Model scenarios predict that the explosive injection of dust and sulfate aerosols into the stratosphere blocked incoming solar radiation, resulting in a cooling pulse of months to several decades, a so-called 'impact winter', but thus far, proxy records lack sufficient resolution to evaluate this hypothesis. We report on a major, short-lived drop in sea surface temperatures (SSTs) recorded in an unusually well preserved and stratigraphically expanded K/Pg boundary site in Texas, USA, based on TEX86 paleothermometry. Critically, the cooling directly post-dates impact-related tsunami deposits, and coincides with the deposition of extraterrestrial iridium representing aerosol fall out, restricting the age of the cooling to the first months to decades after impact. We interpret this cooling to reflect the first direct evidence for the "impact winter" at the K/Pg boundary. The combination of darkness and cooling must have been a key contributory element in the extinctions of many biological clades, including the dinosaurs, flying reptiles and marine reptiles.

About 500-yr interval of huge and widespread paleotsunamis along the Sanriku coast, northern Honshu, Japan

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Haraguchi, T.; Toda, S.; Tsutsumi, H.; Meghraoui, M.; Ferry, M.; Takada, K.

2012-12-01

The 2011 Mw 9.0 Tohoku-oki earthquake triggered a massive tsunami and devastated ~1,000-km-long coastal regions from Aomori to Chiba prefectures, northeast Honshu island. Several pioneering papers already investigated the Sendai to Fukushima region, southern 2011 source area. They found a widespread tsunami inundation by the 869 A.D. Jogan tsunami event (e.g., Minoura and Imamura, 2001; Sawai et al., 2008), which lead the estimated size of the Jogan earthquake up to M8.4 (Satake et al., 2008). No geologic evidence and no historical account in further north may have prevented to conclude straightforwardly that the Jogan earthquake was the penultimate event of the Tohoku-oki earthquake. Here we focus on the Sariku coast, northern part of the 2011 source, and present our pre-Tohoku-oki studies performed at six locations. To recover paleotsunami deposits, I employed conventional coring technique and newly invented Geoslicer to extract several-meter-deep soil and sediment samples. Evidence for paleotsunami event is generally discernible as a several-to-several-tens-of-centimeter medium-to-coarse sand often including mud clast and shells. Such a tsunami sand layer is also distinct intercalated by peats and humic soils representing interseimic dormant periods. Radiocarbon dates yielded from such organic-rich units bracket the depositional timing of the tsunami sand. Although the time constraints of the tsunami sand units are different from site to site, there are shared time ranges of tsunami inundations. Seven well-preserved paleotsunami horizons were commonly found at five onshore sites during the period between 1,000 and 6,000 y.B.P, which yields 500-700 years of recurrence intervals of extremely large tsunamis. One of the flaws in the onshore surveys however is a deficit of the younger sediments due to surface human perturbations. To overcome the issue, I then chose a site inside a bay where no massive erosion and human modification were expected. A 35-m drilling sample recovered from Ozuchi Bay, central Sanriku coast, instead preserved more frequent 22 units of tsunami deposits and associated perturbations during the past 8,000 years, including the 869 A.D. event. It suggests that shoal inside bays can well preserve the sediments of tsunamis, even smaller events. A prominent tendency found in the sequence of tsunami units is a sudden change of recurrence intervals from 500-800 years to 70-150 years at 2,000 y.B.P., which might be associated with a sudden bathymetry change. It may also implies that only huge tsunamis occurred every 500-800 years left sediments inside the bay, which is consistent with the results from onshore surveys.

Rapid inundation estimates at harbor scale using tsunami wave heights offshore simulation and Green's law approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gailler, Audrey; Hébert, Hélène; Loevenbruck, Anne

2013-04-01

Improvements in the availability of sea-level observations and advances in numerical modeling techniques are increasing the potential for tsunami warnings to be based on numerical model forecasts. Numerical tsunami propagation and inundation models are well developed and have now reached an impressive level of accuracy, especially in locations such as harbors where the tsunami waves are mostly amplified. In the framework of tsunami warning under real-time operational conditions, the main obstacle for the routine use of such numerical simulations remains the slowness of the numerical computation, which is strengthened when detailed grids are required for the precise modeling of the coastline response on the scale of an individual harbor. In fact, when facing the problem of the interaction of the tsunami wavefield with a shoreline, any numerical simulation must be performed over an increasingly fine grid, which in turn mandates a reduced time step, and the use of a fully non-linear code. Such calculations become then prohibitively time-consuming, which is clearly unacceptable in the framework of real-time warning. Thus only tsunami offshore propagation modeling tools using a single sparse bathymetric computation grid are presently included within the French Tsunami Warning Center (CENALT), providing rapid estimation of tsunami wave heights in high seas, and tsunami warning maps at western Mediterranean and NE Atlantic basins scale. We present here a preliminary work that performs quick estimates of the inundation at individual harbors from these deep wave heights simulations. The method involves an empirical correction relation derived from Green's law, expressing conservation of wave energy flux to extend the gridded wave field into the harbor with respect to the nearby deep-water grid node. The main limitation of this method is that its application to a given coastal area would require a large database of previous observations, in order to define the empirical parameters of the correction equation. As no such data (i.e., historical tide gage records of significant tsunamis) are available for the western Mediterranean and NE Atlantic basins, a set of synthetic mareograms is calculated for both fake and well-known historical tsunamigenic earthquakes in the area. This synthetic dataset is obtained through accurate numerical tsunami propagation and inundation modeling by using several nested bathymetric grids characterized by a coarse resolution over deep water regions and an increasingly fine resolution close to the shores (down to a grid cell size of 3m in some Mediterranean harbors). This synthetic dataset is then used to approximate the empirical parameters of the correction equation. Results of inundation estimates in several french Mediterranean harbors obtained with the fast "Green's law - derived" method are presented and compared with values given by time-consuming nested grids simulations.

Characteristics of the 2011 Tohoku Tsunami and introduction of two level tsunamis for tsunami disaster mitigation

PubMed Central

SATO, Shinji

2015-01-01

Characteristics of the 2011 Tohoku Tsunami have been revealed by collaborative tsunami surveys extensively performed under the coordination of the Joint Tsunami Survey Group. The complex behaviors of the mega-tsunami were characterized by the unprecedented scale and the low occurrence frequency. The limitation and the performance of tsunami countermeasures were described on the basis of tsunami surveys, laboratory experiments and numerical analyses. These findings contributed to the introduction of two-level tsunami hazards to establish a new strategy for tsunami disaster mitigation, combining structure-based flood protection designed by the Level-1 tsunami and non-structure-based damage reduction planned by the Level-2 tsunami. PMID:26062739

Characteristics of the 2011 Tohoku Tsunami and introduction of two level tsunamis for tsunami disaster mitigation.

PubMed

Sato, Shinji

2015-01-01

Characteristics of the 2011 Tohoku Tsunami have been revealed by collaborative tsunami surveys extensively performed under the coordination of the Joint Tsunami Survey Group. The complex behaviors of the mega-tsunami were characterized by the unprecedented scale and the low occurrence frequency. The limitation and the performance of tsunami countermeasures were described on the basis of tsunami surveys, laboratory experiments and numerical analyses. These findings contributed to the introduction of two-level tsunami hazards to establish a new strategy for tsunami disaster mitigation, combining structure-based flood protection designed by the Level-1 tsunami and non-structure-based damage reduction planned by the Level-2 tsunami.

Subaerial records of large-scale explosive volcanism and tsunami along an oceanic arc, Tonga, SW Pacific

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cronin, S. J.; Smith, I. E.

2015-12-01

We present a new chronology of major terrestrial eruptions and tsunami events for the central Tongan Arc. The active Tonga-Kermadec oceanic arc extends 2500 km northward of New Zealand and hosts many tens of submarine volcanoes with around a dozen forming islands. Despite its obious volcanic setting, the impacts of explosive volcanism and volcano-tectonic related tsunami are an often overlooked in archaeological and paleo-botanical histories, mainly due the lack of good Holocene subaerial exposures. The inhabited small uplifted coral platform islands east of the volcanic arc in Tonga collectively cover only <550 km2. Inspired by local mythology of gods flying overhead with baskets of ash, and an analysis of the high-level wind distribution patterns, lake and wetland sites were investigated along the Tongan chain. In most cases former lagoon basins lifted above sea-level by a combination of tectonic rise and the lowering of mean sea levels by around 2 m since the Mid-Holocene form closed lake or swampy depressions. Coring reveaed between 6 and 20 mineral layers at each site, withn humic sediment or peat. Over thirty new radiocarbon dates were collected to develop a chronology for the sequences and the mineral layers were examined mineralogically and geochemically. These sites reveal mainly tephra fall layers of <6500 cal. years B.P., including several very large and regionally significant tephras. Erupted compositions range from basaltic to dacitic, with some showing compositional change during eruption. In addition, some large eruptions appear to have generated regionally significant tsunami, represented by characteristically mixed sandy layers with lithologies including shell fragment, foraminifera and volcanic particles.

Tsunami hazard assessment in La Reunion and Mayotte Islands in the Indian Ocean : detailed modeling of tsunami impacts for the PREPARTOI project

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Quentel, E.; Loevenbruck, A.; Sahal, A.; Lavigne, F.

2011-12-01

Significant tsunamis have often affected the southwest Indian Ocean. The scientific project PREPARTOI (Prévention et REcherche pour l'Atténuation du Risque Tsunami dans l'Océan Indien), partly founded by the MAIF foundation, aims at assessing the tsunami risk on both french islands of this region, La Réunion and Mayotte. Further purpose of this project is the detailed hazard and vulnerability study for specific places of these islands, selected according to their environmental and human issues and observed impacts of past tsunamis. Tsunami hazard in this region, recently highlighted by major events in the southwest Indian Ocean, has never been thoroughly evaluated. Our study, within the PREPARTOI project, contributes to fill in this lack. It aims at examining transoceanic tsunami hazard related to earthquakes by modeling the scenarios of major historical events. We consider earthquakes with magnitude greater than Mw 7.7 located on the Sumatra (1833, 2004, 2010), Java (2006) and Makran (1945) subduction zones. First, our simulations allow us to compare the tsunami impact at regional scale according to the seismic sources; we thus identify earthquakes locations which most affect the islands and describe the impact distribution along their coastline. In general, we note that, for the same magnitude, events coming from the southern part of Sumatra subduction zone induce a larger impact than the north events. The studied tsunamis initiated along the Java and Makran subduction zones have limited effects on both French islands. Then, detailed models for the selected sites are performed based on high resolution bathymetric and topographic data; they provide estimations of the water currents, the water heights and the potential inundations. When available, field measurements and maregraphic records allow testing our models. Arrival time, amplitude of the first wave and impact on the tide gauge time series are well reproduced. Models are consistent with the observations. During historical tsunamis events, Mayotte registered important run-up along its coasts (between 3 and 4.4 m for the 2004 event). In La Réunion, the west coast is the most affected (to 2.7 m in the harbor of La Possession for 2004 event) by transoceanic tsunamis. For example, selected sites situated along the West coast of La Réunion are significantly impacted. Simulations have been performed at St Paul; the low topography of this town could make it particularly vulnerable to tsunami waves. Harbors, particularly prone to undergo significant damages, are also examined. The harbors of La Pointe des Galets and La Possession, respectively west and east of the town of Le Port, are studied in details in order to characterize and quantify potential large waves and strong currents. Outside the harbors as well as at Saint Paul, inundations are predicted along the coastline due to important local water heights (> 2.5 m).

Recent coastal evolution in a carbonate sandy environments and relation to beach ridge formation: the case of Anegada, British Virgin Islands

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cescon, Anna Lisa; Cooper, J. Andrew G.; Jackson, Derek W. T.

2014-05-01

In a changing climate context coastal areas will be affected by more frequent extreme events. Understanding the relationship between extreme events and coastal geomorphic response is critical to future adaptation plans. Beach ridge landforms commonly identified as hurricane deposits along tropical coasts in Australia and in the Caribbean Sea. However their formative processes in such environments are still not well understood. In particular, the role of different extreme wave events (storm waves, tsunami waves and extreme swell), in generating beach ridges is critical to their use as palaeotempestology archives. Anegada Island is a carbonate platform situated in the British Virgin Island between the Atlantic Ocean and the Caribbean Sea. Pleistocene in age, Anegada is surrounded by the Horseshoe fringing coral reef. Two Holocene sandy beach ridge plains are present on the western part of the island. The north beach ridge plain is Atlantic facing and has at least 30 ridges; the south beach ridge plain is Caribbean Sea facing and contains 10 ridges. Historical aerial photos enabled the shoreline evolution from 1953 to 2012 to be studied. Three different coastal domains are associate with the beach ridge plains: strong east-west longshore transport affects the north coastline, the south-west coastline from West End to Pomato Point represents an export corridor for these sediments and finally, along the southern coastline, from Pomato Point to Settling Point the area presents a depositional zone with little to no change in the last 70 years. The link between the extreme wave events that have affected Anegada Island in the last 70 years and beach ridge creation is discussed. Hurricane Donna crossed over Anegada Island in 1960: its geomorphological signature is tracked in the shoreline change analysis and its implication in beach ridge formation is discussed. Anegada Island has also been impacted by tsunami waves (Atwater et al., 2012) and a comparative discussion of the effects of hurricane and tsunami on the island will be presented. Atwater, B. et al., 2012. Geomorphic and stratigraphic evidence for an unusual tsunami or storm a few centuries ago at Anegada, British Virgin Islands. Natural Hazards, 63, pp. 51-84.

Tsunami on Sanriku Coast in 1586: Orphan or Ghost Tsunami ?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Satake, K.

2017-12-01

The Peruvian earthquake on July 9, 1586 was the oldest earthquake that damaged Lima. The tsunami height was assigned as 24 m in Callao and 1-2 m in Miyagi prefecture in Japan by Soloviev and Go (1975). Dorbath et al. (1990) studied historical earthquakes in Peru and estimated that the 1586 earthquake was similar to the 1974 event (Mw 8.1) with source length of 175 km. They referred two different tsunami heights, 3. 7m and 24 m, in Callao, and judged that the latter was exaggerated. Okal et al. (2006) could not make a source model to explain both tsunami heights in Callao and Japan. More recently, Butler et al. (2017) estimated the age of coral boulders in Hawaii as AD 1572 +/- 21, speculated the tsunami source in Aleutians, and attributed it to the source of the 1586 tsunami in Japan. Historical tsunamis, both near-field and far-field, have been documented along the Sanriku coast since 1586 (e.g., Watanabe, 1998). However, there is no written document for the 1586 tsunami (Tsuji et al., 2013). Ninomiya (1960) compiled the historical tsunami records on the Sanriku coast soon after the 1960 Chilean tsunami, and correlated the legend of tsunami in Tokura with the 1586 Peruvian earthquake, although he noted that the dates were different. About the legend, he referred to Kunitomi(1933) who compiled historical tsunami data after the 1933 Showa Sanriku tsunami. Kunitomi referred to "Tsunami history of Miyagi prefecture" published after the 1896 Meiji Sanriku tsunami. "Tsunami history" described the earthquake and tsunami damage of Tensho earthquake on January 18 (Gregorian),1586 in central Japan, and correlated the tsunami legend in Tokura on June 30, 1586 (G). Following the 2011 Tohoku tsunami, tsunami legend in Tokura was studied again (Ebina, 2015). A local person published a story he heard from his grandfather that many small valleys were named following the 1611 tsunami, which inundated further inland than the 2011 tsunami. Ebina (2015), based on historical documents, estimated that the legend existed around 1750. From the above research, the tsunami legend in Tokura is unlikely from the Peruvian earthquake. Hence the 1586 tsunami was not an orphan tsunami, but rather a ghost or fake tsunami. The legend simply mentioned about tsunami, but the tsunami heights were speculated as 1-2 m (Soloviev and Go) or 2 - 2.5 m (NOAA tsunami DB).

Very shallow source of the October 2010 Mentawai tsunami earthquake from tsunami field data and high-rate GPS

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hill, E. M.; Qiu, Q.; Borrero, J. C.; Huang, Z.; Banerjee, P.; Elosegui, P.; Fritz, H. M.; Macpherson, K. A.; Li, L.; Sieh, K. E.

2011-12-01

"Tsunami earthquakes," which produce very large tsunamis compared to those expected from their magnitude, have long puzzled geoscientists, in part because only a handful have occurred within the time of modern instrumentation. The Mw 7.8 Mentawai earthquake of 25 October 2010, which occurred seaward of the southern Mentawai islands of Sumatra, was such an event. This earthquake triggered a very large tsunami, causing substantial damage and 509 casualties. Detailed field surveys we conducted immediately after the earthquake reveal maximum runup in excess of 16 m. The Sumatra GPS Array (SuGAr) recorded beautiful 1-sec data for this event at sites on the nearby islands, making this the first tsunami earthquake to be recorded by a dense, high-rate, and proximal GPS network, and giving us a unique opportunity to study these rare events from a new perspective. We estimate a maximum horizontal coseismic GPS displacement of 22 cm, at a site ~50 km from the epicenter. Vertical displacements show subsidence of the islands, but are on the order of only a few cm. Comparison of coseismic offsets from 1-sec and 24-hr GPS solutions indicates that rapid afterslip following the earthquake amounts to ~30% of the displacement estimated by the 24-hr solutions. The coseismic displacements are smaller than expected, and an unconstrained inversion of the GPS displacements indicates maximum fault slip of ~90 cm. Slip of this magnitude will produce maximum seafloor uplift of <15 cm, which is clearly not enough to produce tsunami runup of 16 m. However, investigation of the model resolution from GPS indicates that we are limited in our ability to resolve slip very close to the trench. We therefore deduce that to obtain the adequate level of slip and seafloor uplift to trigger the tsunami, the rupture must have occurred outside the resolution of the GPS network, i.e., at very shallow depths close to the trench. We therefore place prior slip constraints on the GPS inversion, based on preferred values from tsunami modeling of the field data. In the constrained inversion, the small GPS displacements force any slip close to the islands back down to much lower values than the a priori estimates, leaving only a very narrow and shallow strip of high slip close to the trench. In this presentation we will show several possible models that include slip on either the megathrust itself or a shallow splay fault, with maximum slip of ~7 m and ~4 m, respectively. This very shallow slip raises questions about the seismic hazard potential of a region of the fault that is often considered to be aseismic. Particularly, these results suggest that when model resolution is not adequate for making determinations of the updip limit of the seismogenic zone of subduction faults, it may be best to assume that it extends all the way to the trench.

How material contrast around subduction faults may control coseismic slip and rupture dynamics: tsunami applications for the case study of Tohoku

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Scala, Antonio; Murphy, Shane; Romano, Fabrizio; Lorito, Stefano; Festa, Gaetano; Volpe, Manuela; Piatanesi, Alessio

2017-04-01

Recent megathrust tsunamigenic events, e.g. Maule 2010 (M8.8) and Tohoku 2011 (M9.0), generated huge tsunami waves as a consequence of high slip in the shallow part of the respective subduction zone. Other events, (e.g. the recent Mentawai 2010, M7.8, or the historical Meiji 1896, M8.2), referred to as tsunami earthquakes, produced unexpectedly large tsunami waves, probably due to large slip at shallow depth over longer rupture durations compared to deeper thrust events. Subduction zone earthquakes originate and propagate along bimaterial interfaces separating materials having different elastic properties, e.g. continental and oceanic crust, a stiffer deep mantle wedge, shallow compliant accretionary prism etc. Bimaterial interfaces have been showed, through observations (seismological and laboratory) and theoretical studies, to affect the rupture: introducing a preferred rupture direction as well as asymmetric rupture velocities and shear stress redistributions. Such features are predominantly due to the break of symmetry between the two sides of the interface in turn ascribable to the complex coupling between the frictional interfacial sliding and the slip-induced normal stress perturbations. In order to examine the influence of material contrast on a fault plane on the seismic source and tsunami waves, we modelled a Tohoku-like subduction zone to perform a large number of 2D along-dip rupture dynamics simulations in the framework of linear slip weakening both for homogeneous and bimaterial fault. In this latter model, the rupture acts as the interface between the subducting oceanic crust and the overriding layers (accretionary prism, continental crust and mantle wedge), varying the position of the shear stress asperity acting as nucleation patch. Initial results reveal that ruptures in homogeneous media produce earthquakes with large slip at depth compared to the case where bi-material interface is included. However the opposite occurs for events nucleating at intermediate depths: the compliant accretionary prism favours slip up to the free surface leading to larger events compared to the homogeneous case. These preliminary findings will be further investigated considering different material contrasts between the slab and the overriding accretionary prism to mimic the slowness of the sedimentary wedge. This will contribute to assess the influence of these contrasts in more realistic environment on the seismic source features and, in turn, on the conditional probability of exceedance for maximum tsunami wave height for a M9 event. Several source parameters, such as coseismic slip, rupture duration, rupture velocity and stress conditions, derived from the numerical simulations will be compared to those inferred from real events using existing finite fault catalogues (e.g. USGS, SRCMOD, etc.).

Spatial Analysis of Traffic and Routing Path Methods for Tsunami Evacuation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fakhrurrozi, A.; Sari, A. M.

2018-02-01

Tsunami disaster occurred relatively very fast. Thus, it has a very large-scale impact on both non-material and material aspects. Community evacuation caused mass panic, crowds, and traffic congestion. A further research in spatial based modelling, traffic engineering and splitting zone evacuation simulation is very crucial as an effort to reduce higher losses. This topic covers some information from the previous research. Complex parameters include route selection, destination selection, the spontaneous timing of both the departure of the source and the arrival time to destination and other aspects of the result parameter in various methods. The simulation process and its results, traffic modelling, and routing analysis emphasized discussion which is the closest to real conditions in the tsunami evacuation process. The method that we should highlight is Clearance Time Estimate based on Location Priority in which the computation result is superior to others despite many drawbacks. The study is expected to have input to improve and invent a new method that will be a part of decision support systems for disaster risk reduction of tsunamis disaster.

Source of 1629 Banda Mega-Thrust Earthquake and Tsunami: Implications for Tsunami Hazard Evaluation in Eastern Indonesia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Major, J. R.; Liu, Z.; Harris, R. A.; Fisher, T. L.

2011-12-01

Using Dutch records of geophysical events in Indonesia over the past 400 years, and tsunami modeling, we identify tsunami sources that have caused severe devastation in the past and are likely to reoccur in the near future. The earthquake history of Western Indonesia has received much attention since the 2004 Sumatra earthquakes and subsequent events. However, strain rates along a variety of plate boundary segments are just as high in eastern Indonesia where the earthquake history has not been investigated. Due to the rapid population growth in this region it is essential and urgent to evaluate its earthquake and tsunami hazards. Arthur Wichmann's 'Earthquakes of the Indian Archipelago' shows that there were 30 significant earthquakes and 29 tsunami between 1629 to 1877. One of the largest and best documented is the great earthquake and tsunami effecting the Banda islands on 1 August, 1629. It caused severe damage from a 15 m tsunami that arrived at the Banda Islands about a half hour after the earthquake. The earthquake was also recorded 230 km away in Ambon, but no tsunami is mentioned. This event was followed by at least 9 years of aftershocks. The combination of these observations indicates that the earthquake was most likely a mega-thrust event. We use a numerical simulation of the tsunami to locate the potential sources of the 1629 mega-thrust event and evaluate the tsunami hazard in Eastern Indonesia. The numerical simulation was tested to establish the tsunami run-up amplification factor for this region by tsunami simulations of the 1992 Flores Island (Hidayat et al., 1995) and 2006 Java (Katoet al., 2007) earthquake events. The results yield a tsunami run-up amplification factor of 1.5 and 3, respectively. However, the Java earthquake is a unique case of slow rupture that was hardly felt. The fault parameters of recent earthquakes in the Banda region are used for the models. The modeling narrows the possibilities of mega-thrust events the size of the one in 1629 to the Seram and Timor Troughs. For the Seram Trough source a Mw 8.8 produces run-up heights in the Banda Islands of 15.5 m with an arrival time of 17 minuets. For a Timor Trough earthquake near the Tanimbar Islands a Mw 9.2 is needed to produce a 15 m run-up height with an arrival time of 25 minuets. The main problem with the Timor Trough source is that it predicts run-up heights in Ambon of 10 m, which would likely have been recorded. Therefore, we conclude that the most likely source of the 1629 mega-thrust earthquake is the Seram Trough. No large earthquakes are reported along the Seram Trough for over 200 years although high rates of strain are measured across it. This study suggests that the earthquake triggers from this fault zone could be extremely devastating to Eastern Indonesia. We strive to raise the awareness to the local government to not underestimate the natural hazard of this region based on lessons learned from the 2004 Sumatra and 2011 Tohoku tsunamigenic mega-thrust earthquakes.

Tsunami-induced boulder transport - combining physical experiments and numerical modelling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Oetjen, Jan; Engel, Max; May, Simon Matthias; Schüttrumpf, Holger; Brueckner, Helmut; Prasad Pudasaini, Shiva

2016-04-01

Coasts are crucial areas for living, economy, recreation, transportation, and various sectors of industry. Many of them are exposed to high-energy wave events. With regard to the ongoing population growth in low-elevation coastal areas, the urgent need for developing suitable management measures, especially for hazards like tsunamis, becomes obvious. These measures require supporting tools which allow an exact estimation of impact parameters like inundation height, inundation area, and wave energy. Focussing on tsunamis, geological archives can provide essential information on frequency and magnitude on a longer time scale in order to support coastal hazard management. While fine-grained deposits may quickly be altered after deposition, multi-ton coarse clasts (boulders) may represent an information source on past tsunami events with a much higher preservation potential. Applying numerical hydrodynamic coupled boulder transport models (BTM) is a commonly used approach to analyse characteristics (e.g. wave height, flow velocity) of the corresponding tsunami. Correct computations of tsunamis and the induced boulder transport can provide essential event-specific information, including wave heights, runup and direction. Although several valuable numerical models for tsunami-induced boulder transport exist (e. g. Goto et al., 2007; Imamura et al., 2008), some important basic aspects of both tsunami hydrodynamics and corresponding boulder transport have not yet been entirely understood. Therefore, our project aims at these questions in four crucial aspects of boulder transport by a tsunami: (i) influence of sediment load, (ii) influence of complex boulder shapes other than idealized rectangular shapes, (iii) momentum transfers between multiple boulders, and (iv) influence of non-uniform bathymetries and topographies both on tsunami and boulder. The investigation of these aspects in physical experiments and the correct implementation of an advanced model is an urgent need since they have been largely neglected. In order to tackle these gaps, we develop a novel BTM in two steps. First, scaled physical experiments are performed that determine the exact hydrodynamic processes within a tsunami during boulder transportations. Furthermore, the experiments are the basis for calibrating the numerical BTM. The BTM is based on the numerical two-phase mass flow model of Pudasaini (2012) that employs an advanced and unified high-resolution computational tool for mixtures consisting of the solid and fluid components and their interactions. This allows for the motion of the boulder while interacting with the particle-laden tsunami on the inundated coastal plane as a function of the total fluid and solid stresses. Our approach leads to fundamentally new insights in to the essential physical processes in BTM. Goto, K., Chavanich, S. A., Imamura, F., Kunthasap, P., Matsui, T., Minoura, K., Sugawara, D. and Yanagisawa, H.: Distribution, origin and transport process of boulders deposited by the 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami at Pakarang Cape, Thailand. Sediment. Geol., 202, 821-837, 2007. Imamura, F., Goto, K. and Ohkubo, S.: A numerical model of the transport of a boulder by tsunami. J. Geophys. Res. Oceans, 113, C01008, 2008. Pudasaini, S. P.: A general two-phase debris flow model. J. Geophys. Res. Earth Surf., 117, F03010, 2012.

Tsunami hazard potential for the equatorial southwestern Pacific atolls of Tokelau from scenario-based simulations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Orpin, Alan R.; Rickard, Graham J.; Gerring, Peter K.; Lamarche, Geoffroy

2016-05-01

Devastating tsunami over the last decade have significantly heightened awareness of the potential consequences and vulnerability of low-lying Pacific islands and coastal regions. Our appraisal of the potential tsunami hazard for the atolls of the Tokelau Islands is based on a tsunami source-propagation-inundation model using Gerris Flow Solver, adapted from the companion study by Lamarche et al. (2015) for the islands of Wallis and Futuna. We assess whether there is potential for tsunami flooding on any of the village islets from a selection of 14 earthquake-source experiments. These earthquake sources are primarily based on the largest Pacific earthquakes of Mw ≥ 8.1 since 1950 and other large credible sources of tsunami that may impact Tokelau. Earthquake-source location and moment magnitude are related to tsunami-wave amplitudes and tsunami flood depths simulated for each of the three atolls of Tokelau. This approach yields instructive results for a community advisory but is not intended to be fully deterministic. Rather, the underlying aim is to identify credible sources that present the greatest potential to trigger an emergency response. Results from our modelling show that wave fields are channelled by the bathymetry of the Pacific basin in such a way that the swathes of the highest waves sweep immediately northeast of the Tokelau Islands. Our limited simulations suggest that trans-Pacific tsunami from distant earthquake sources to the north of Tokelau pose the most significant inundation threat. In particular, our assumed worst-case scenario for the Kuril Trench generated maximum modelled-wave amplitudes in excess of 1 m, which may last a few hours and include several wave trains. Other sources can impact specific sectors of the atolls, particularly distant earthquakes from Chile and Peru, and regional earthquake sources to the south. Flooding is dependent on the wave orientation and direct alignment to the incoming tsunami. Our "worst-case" tsunami simulations of the Tokelau Islands suggest that dry areas remain around the villages, which are typically built on a high islet. Consistent with the oral history of little or no perceived tsunami threat, simulations from the recent Tohoku and Chile earthquake sources suggest only limited flooding around low-lying islets of the atoll. Where potential tsunami flooding is inferred from the modelling, recommended minimum evacuation heights above local sea level are compiled, with particular attention paid to variations in tsunami flood depth around the atolls, subdivided into directional quadrants around each atoll. However, complex wave behaviours around the atolls, islets, tidal channels and within the lagoons are also observed in our simulations. Wave amplitudes within the lagoons may exceed 50 cm, increasing any inundation and potential hazards on the inner shoreline of the atolls, which in turn may influence evacuation strategies. Our study shows that indicative simulation studies can be achieved even with only basic field information. In part, this is due to the spatially and vertically limited topography of the atoll, short reef flat and steep seaward bathymetry, and the simple depth profile of the lagoon bathymetry.

SEQUENCING of TSUNAMI WAVES: Why the first wave is not always the largest?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Synolakis, C.; Okal, E.

2016-12-01

We discuss what contributes to the `sequencing' of tsunami waves in the far field, that is, to the distribution of the maximum sea surface amplitude inside the dominant wave packet constituting the primary arrival at a distant harbour. Based on simple models of sources for which analytical solutions are available, we show that, as range is increased, the wave pattern evolves from a regime of maximum amplitude in the first oscillation to one of delayed maximum, where the largest amplitude takes place during a subsequent oscillation. In the case of the simple, instantaneous uplift of a circular disk at the surface of an ocean of constant depth, the critical distance for transition between those patterns scales as r 30 /h2 where r0 is the radius of the disk and h the depth of the ocean. This behaviour is explained from simple arguments based on a model where sequencing results from frequency dispersion in the primary wave packet, as the width of its spectrum around its dominant period T0 becomes dispersed in time in an amount comparable to T0 , the latter being controlled by a combination of source size and ocean depth. The general concepts in this model are confirmed in the case of more realistic sources for tsunami excitation by a finite-time deformation of the ocean floor, as well as in real-life simulations of tsunamis excited by large subduction events, for which we find that the influence of fault width on the distribution of sequencing is more important than that of fault length. Finally, simulation of the major events of Chile (2010) and Japan (2011) at large arrays of virtual gauges in the Pacific Basin correctly predicts the majority of the sequencing patterns observed on DART buoys during these events. By providing insight into the evolution with time of wave amplitudes inside primary wave packets for far field tsunamis generated by large earthquakes, our results stress the importance, for civil defense authorities, of issuing warning and evacuation orders of sufficient duration to avoid the hazard

Sequencing of tsunami waves: why the first wave is not always the largest

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Okal, Emile A.; Synolakis, Costas E.

2016-02-01

This paper examines the factors contributing to the `sequencing' of tsunami waves in the far field, that is, to the distribution of the maximum sea surface amplitude inside the dominant wave packet constituting the primary arrival at a distant harbour. Based on simple models of sources for which analytical solutions are available, we show that, as range is increased, the wave pattern evolves from a regime of maximum amplitude in the first oscillation to one of delayed maximum, where the largest amplitude takes place during a subsequent oscillation. In the case of the simple, instantaneous uplift of a circular disk at the surface of an ocean of constant depth, the critical distance for transition between those patterns scales as r_0^3 / h^2 where r0 is the radius of the disk and h the depth of the ocean. This behaviour is explained from simple arguments based on a model where sequencing results from frequency dispersion in the primary wave packet, as the width of its spectrum around its dominant period T0 becomes dispersed in time in an amount comparable to T0, the latter being controlled by a combination of source size and ocean depth. The general concepts in this model are confirmed in the case of more realistic sources for tsunami excitation by a finite-time deformation of the ocean floor, as well as in real-life simulations of tsunamis excited by large subduction events, for which we find that the influence of fault width on the distribution of sequencing is more important than that of fault length. Finally, simulation of the major events of Chile (2010) and Japan (2011) at large arrays of virtual gauges in the Pacific Basin correctly predicts the majority of the sequencing patterns observed on DART buoys during these events. By providing insight into the evolution with time of wave amplitudes inside primary wave packets for far field tsunamis generated by large earthquakes, our results stress the importance, for civil defense authorities, of issuing warning and evacuation orders of sufficient duration to avoid the hazard inherent in premature calls for all-clear.

Incorporating Geodectic Processing Modules into a Real-Time Earthworm Environment to Enhance NOAA's Tsunami Warning Capability

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Macpherson, K. A.

2017-12-01

The National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration's National and Pacific Tsunami Warning Centers currently rely on traditional seismic data in order to detect and evaluate potential tsunamigenic earthquakes anywhere on the globe. The first information products disseminated by the centers following a significant seismic event are based solely on seismically-derived earthquake locations and magnitudes, and are issued within minutes of the earthquake origin time. Thus, the rapid and reliable determination of the earthquake magnitude is a critical piece of information needed by the centers to generate the appropriate alert levels. However, seismically-derived magnitudes of large events are plagued by well-known problems, particularly during the first few minutes following the origin time; near-source broad-band instruments may go off scale, and magnitudes tend to saturate until sufficient teleseismic data arrive to represent the long-period signal that characterizes large events. However, geodetic data such as high-rate Global Positioning System (hGPS) displacements and seismogeodetic data that is a combination of collocated hGPS and accelerometer data do not suffer from these limitations. These sensors stay on scale, even for large events, and they record both dynamic and static displacements that may be used to estimate magnitude without saturation. Therefore, there is an ongoing effort to incorporate these data streams into the operations of the tsunami warning centers to enhance current magnitude determination capabilities, and eventually, to invert the geodetic displacements for mechanism and finite-fault information. These later quantities will be useful for tsunami modeling and forecasting. The tsunami warning centers rely on the Earthworm system for real-time data acquisition, so we have developed Earthworm modules for the Magnitude from Peak Ground Displacement (MPGD) algorithm, developed at the University of Washington and the University of California, Berkeley, and a module for a Static Offset Estimator algorithm that was developed by the NASA Jet Propulsion Laboratory. In this presentation we will discuss module architecture and show output computed by replaying both synthetic and historical scenarios in a simulated real-time Earthworm environment.

Tsunami geology in paleoseismology

USGS Publications Warehouse

Yuichi Nishimura,; Jaffe, Bruce E.

2015-01-01

The 2004 Indian Ocean and 2011 Tohoku-oki disasters dramatically demonstrated the destructiveness and deadliness of tsunamis. For the assessment of future risk posed by tsunamis it is necessary to understand past tsunami events. Recent work on tsunami deposits has provided new information on paleotsunami events, including their recurrence interval and the size of the tsunamis (e.g. [187–189]). Tsunamis are observed not only on the margin of oceans but also in lakes. The majority of tsunamis are generated by earthquakes, but other events that displace water such as landslides and volcanic eruptions can also generate tsunamis. These non-earthquake tsunamis occur less frequently than earthquake tsunamis; it is, therefore, very important to find and study geologic evidence for past eruption and submarine landslide triggered tsunami events, as their rare occurrence may lead to risks being underestimated. Geologic investigations of tsunamis have historically relied on earthquake geology. Geophysicists estimate the parameters of vertical coseismic displacement that tsunami modelers use as a tsunami's initial condition. The modelers then let the simulated tsunami run ashore. This approach suffers from the relationship between the earthquake and seafloor displacement, the pertinent parameter in tsunami generation, being equivocal. In recent years, geologic investigations of tsunamis have added sedimentology and micropaleontology, which focus on identifying and interpreting depositional and erosional features of tsunamis. For example, coastal sediment may contain deposits that provide important information on past tsunami events [190, 191]. In some cases, a tsunami is recorded by a single sand layer. Elsewhere, tsunami deposits can consist of complex layers of mud, sand, and boulders, containing abundant stratigraphic evidence for sediment reworking and redeposition. These onshore sediments are geologic evidence for tsunamis and are called ‘tsunami deposits’ (Figs. 26 and 27). Tsunami deposits can be classified into two groups: modern tsunami deposits and paleotsunami deposits. A modern tsunami deposit is a deposit whose source event is known. A paleotsunami deposit is a deposit whose age is estimated and has a source that is either inferred to be a historical event or is unknown.

Dynamics of a large, restless, rhyolitic magma system at Laguna del Maule, southern Andes, Chile

USGS Publications Warehouse

Singer, Brad S.; Andersen, Nathan L.; Le Mével, Hélène; Feigl, Kurt L.; DeMets, Charles; Tikoff, Basil; Thurber, Clifford H.; Jicha, Brian R.; Cardonna, Carlos; Córdova, Loreto; Gil, Fernando; Unsworth, Martyn J.; Williams-Jones, Glyn; Miller, Craig W.; Fierstein, Judith; Hildreth, Edward; Vazquez, Jorge A.

2014-01-01

Explosive eruptions of large-volume rhyolitic magma systems are common in the geologic record and pose a major potential threat to society. Unlike other natural hazards, such as earthquakes and tsunamis, a large rhyolitic volcano may provide warning signs long before a caldera-forming eruption occurs. Yet, these signs—and what they imply about magma-crust dynamics—are not well known. This is because we have learned how these systems form, grow, and erupt mainly from the study of ash flow tuffs deposited tens to hundreds of thousands of years ago or more, or from the geophysical imaging of the unerupted portions of the reservoirs beneath the associated calderas. The Laguna del Maule Volcanic Field, Chile, includes an unusually large and recent concentration of silicic eruptions. Since 2007, the crust there has been inflating at an astonishing rate of at least 25 cm/yr. This unique opportunity to investigate the dynamics of a large rhyolitic system while magma migration, reservoir growth, and crustal deformation are actively under way is stimulating a new international collaboration. Findings thus far lead to the hypothesis that the silicic vents have tapped an extensive layer of crystal-poor, rhyolitic melt that began to form atop a magmatic mush zone that was established by ca. 20 ka with a renewed phase of rhyolite eruptions during the Holocene. Modeling of surface deformation, magnetotelluric data, and gravity changes suggest that magma is currently intruding at a depth of ~5 km. The next phase of this investigation seeks to enlarge the sets of geophysical and geochemical data and to use these observations in numerical models of system dynamics.

Importance of large-scale bathymetry features on 2011 Tohoku tsunami waveforms through comparison of simulations with the spatially dense ALBACORE OBS array data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kohler, M. D.; Lynett, P. J.; Legg, M. R.; Weeraratne, D. S.

2012-12-01

In March 2011, a deployment of ocean bottom seismometers (OBSs) off the coast of Southern California recorded the tsunami resulting from the Mw=9.0 Tohoku, Japan earthquake with very high spatial resolution. The ALBACORE (Asthenosphere and Lithosphere Broadband Architecture from the California Offshore Region Experiment) OBS array spanned a region that was 150 km north-south by 400 km east-west, extending into deep open ocean west of the Patton escarpment. In that array, 22 stations with a spacing of 75 km had differential pressure gauges (DPGs) that recorded water pressure waveform data continuously at 50 samples/second. The DPG tsunami records across the entire array show multiple large-amplitude, coherent phases arriving one hour to more than 36 hours after the initial tsunami phase. To determine the source of the large-amplitude coherent phases, gravity ocean wave propagation calculations were carried out for the Pacific Ocean. Simulated pressure waveforms were compared with data for the ALBACORE stations, as well as for the NOAA DART buoys. The linear, non-dispersive shallow-water simulations include bottom frictional effects, and use the USGS NEIC Tohoku slip model and ETOPO2 (two-minute spatial resolution) bathymetry. The predicted travel times of the initial arrivals are found to be less than 1% different from the observed travel times in the southern California ALBACORE DPG data. In order to gauge the effects of large-scale features in Pacific Ocean bathymetry, several large-scale features were individually removed, and simulations were carried out for the modified bathymetry. The removed features include the Emperor Seamount chain, Hawaiian Islands, Oceania, French Polynesia, and the South American coastline. The results show that the removal of these features has an effect on the arrival time of the phases that depends on the feature proximity to the direct path, but their removal does not have a significant effect on the frequency content or phase amplitudes of the waves. The direct paths recorded in Southern California indicate that the tsunami wave did not interfere with distant above-water features such as the Aleutians, but was diffracted around Point Conception in the California coastline and around southern California islands. It is more likely that the scattered phases are the result of wave reflections off the western Japan coastline, or interactions with local structures such as the central-southern California coastline, plateaus beneath the Channel Islands, and the Patton Escarpment.

Heterogeneous slip distribution on faults responsible for large earthquakes: characterization and implications for tsunami modelling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Baglione, Enrico; Armigliato, Alberto; Pagnoni, Gianluca; Tinti, Stefano

2017-04-01

The fact that ruptures on the generating faults of large earthquakes are strongly heterogeneous has been demonstrated over the last few decades by a large number of studies. The effort to retrieve reliable finite-fault models (FFMs) for large earthquakes occurred worldwide, mainly by means of the inversion of different kinds of geophysical data, has been accompanied in the last years by the systematic collection and format homogenisation of the published/proposed FFMs for different earthquakes into specifically conceived databases, such as SRCMOD. The main aim of this study is to explore characteristic patterns of the slip distribution of large earthquakes, by using a subset of the FFMs contained in SRCMOD, covering events with moment magnitude equal or larger than 6 and occurred worldwide over the last 25 years. We focus on those FFMs that exhibit a single and clear region of high slip (i.e. a single asperity), which is found to represent the majority of the events. For these FFMs, it sounds reasonable to best-fit the slip model by means of a 2D Gaussian distributions. Two different methods are used (least-square and highest-similarity) and correspondingly two "best-fit" indexes are introduced. As a result, two distinct 2D Gaussian distributions for each FFM are obtained. To quantify how well these distributions are able to mimic the original slip heterogeneity, we calculate and compare the vertical displacements at the Earth surface in the near field induced by the original FFM slip, by an equivalent uniform-slip model, by a depth-dependent slip model, and by the two "best" Gaussian slip models. The coseismic vertical surface displacement is used as the metric for comparison. Results show that, on average, the best results are the ones obtained with 2D Gaussian distributions based on similarity index fitting. Finally, we restrict our attention to those single-asperity FFMs associated to earthquakes which generated tsunamis. We choose few events for which tsunami data (water level time series and/or run-up measurements) are available. Using the results mentioned above, for each chosen event the coseismic vertical displacement fields computed for different slip distributions are used as initial conditions for numerical tsunami simulations, performed by means of the shallow-water code UBO-TSUFD. The comparison of the numerical results for different initial conditions to the experimental data is presented and discussed. This study was funded in the frame of the EU Project called ASTARTE - "Assessment, STrategy And Risk Reduction for Tsunamis in Europe", Grant 603839, 7th FP (ENV.2013.6.4-3).

Recent storm and tsunami coarse-clast deposit characteristics, southeast Hawai'i

USGS Publications Warehouse

Richmond, B.M.; Watt, Sebastian; Buckley, M.; Jaffe, B.E.; Gelfenbaum, G.; Morton, R.A.

2011-01-01

Deposits formed by extreme waves can be useful in elucidating the type and characteristics of the depositional event. The study area on the southeast coast of the island of Hawaiʻi is characterized by the presence of geologically young basalts of known age that are mantled by recent wave-derived sedimentary deposits. The area has been impacted by large swells, storms and tsunamis over the last century, and in combination with known substrate ages makes this an ideal location to study recent deposits produced by such events. Three distinct coarse-clast deposit assemblages can be recognized based on clast size, composition, angularity, orientation, packing, elevation and inland distance of the deposit. These deposits are characterized as one of three types. 1) Gravel fields of isolated clasts, primarily boulder-size material, and scattered pockets of concentrated sand and gravel in topographic lows. 2) Shore-parallel and cuspate ridges composed mostly of rounded basalt gravel and sand with small amounts of carbonate detritus. The ridges range in height from about 1 to 3 m and are 10s of m wide. 3) Cliff-top deposits of scattered angular and sub-angular clasts along sea cliffs that are generally greater than 5 m elevation. The gravel fields are primarily of tsunami origin from either the 1975 Kalapana event, or a combination of the 1975 tsunami, and 1868 tsunami or earlier events. The ridge deposits are presently active and sediment continues to be added during high wave events. The cliff-top deposits contain evidence of deposition by both tsunami and storm processes and require further investigation.

Run-up of Tsunamis in the Gulf of Mexico caused by the Chicxulub Impact Event

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Weisz, R.; Wünnenmann, K.; Bahlburg, H.

2003-04-01

The Chicxulub impact event can be investigated on (1) local, (2) regional and in (3) global scales. Our investigations focus on the regional scale, especially on the run-up of tsunami waves on the coast around the Gulf of Mexico caused by the impact. An impact produces two types of tsunami waves: (1) the rim wave, (2) the collapse wave. Both waves propagate over long distances and reach coastal areas. Depending on the tsunami wave characteristics, they have a potentionally large influence on the coastal areas. Run-up distance and run-up height can be used as parameters for assessing this influence. To calculate these parameters, we are using a multi-material hydrocode (SALE) to simulate the generation of the tsunami wave, a non-linear shallow water approach for the propagation, and we implemented a special open boundary for considering the run-up of tsunami waves. With the help of the one-dimensional shallow water approach, we will give run-up heights and distances for the coastal area around the Gulf of Mexico. The calculations are done along several sections from the impact site towards the coast. These are a first approximation to run-up calculations for the entire coast of the Gulf of Mexico. The bathymetric data along the sections, used in the wave propagation and run-up, correspond to a linearized bathymetry of the recent Gulf of Mexico. Additionally, we will present preliminary results from our first two-dimensional experiments of propagation and run-up. These results will be compared with the one-dimensional approach.

Development of real-time mobile-buoy observation system for tsunami and crustal movement

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Takahashi, N.; Ishihara, Y.; Fukuda, T.; Tahara, J.; Ochi, H.; Mori, T.; Deguchi, M.; Kido, M.; Ohta, Y.; Hino, R.; Mutoh, K.; Hashimoto, G.; Motohashi, O.; Kaneda, Y.

2014-12-01

We have developed real-time buoy system for tsunami and crustal movement since 2012. Our motivations are needs of the crustal movement data of not only for vertical component but horizontal, real-time data transmission for future prediction of the next large earthquake, and needs of relatively easily system comparing with the seafloor cable network system. Therefore, we are developing the above system using a buoy system, considering long term observation of approximately two years. Our system's characteristics are real-time observation, separation between tsunami and crustal movement, mobility, and environmental compatibility. Tsunami and crustal movement data are sent with intervals of an hour and a week respectively in real-time, and we can also get them on-demand via satellite transmission from the land station. We are going to observe tsunami using a pressure sensor and a PPP (precise point positioning) navigation system on the buoy, therefore, tsunami and vertical crustal deformation are separated in real-time. And the horizontal component of the crustal deformation is also measured by acoustic signals between the buoy and six seafloor transponders. Our system can be used under severe strong sea current with a speed of 5.5 knots due to adaption of slack mooring. Therefore, we can deploy it without consideration of sea current. In addition, the geometry including the size of the buoy, lengths of some ropes, and capacity of the electric battery and so on is tuned considering an environment of deployment location. Through twice sea trials, we are confirming each function. In this presentation, we introduce the outline and results of the sea trials.

Improved Phase Corrections for Transoceanic Tsunami Data in Spatial and Temporal Source Estimation: Application to the 2011 Tohoku Earthquake

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ho, Tung-Cheng; Satake, Kenji; Watada, Shingo

2017-12-01

Systemic travel time delays of up to 15 min relative to the linear long waves for transoceanic tsunamis have been reported. A phase correction method, which converts the linear long waves into dispersive waves, was previously proposed to consider seawater compressibility, the elasticity of the Earth, and gravitational potential change associated with tsunami motion. In the present study, we improved this method by incorporating the effects of ocean density stratification, actual tsunami raypath, and actual bathymetry. The previously considered effects amounted to approximately 74% for correction of the travel time delay, while the ocean density stratification, actual raypath, and actual bathymetry, contributed to approximately 13%, 4%, and 9% on average, respectively. The improved phase correction method accounted for almost all the travel time delay at far-field stations. We performed single and multiple time window inversions for the 2011 Tohoku tsunami using the far-field data (>3 h travel time) to investigate the initial sea surface displacement. The inversion result from only far-field data was similar to but smoother than that from near-field data and all stations, including a large sea surface rise increasing toward the trench followed by a migration northward along the trench. For the forward simulation, our results showed good agreement between the observed and computed waveforms at both near-field and far-field tsunami gauges, as well as with satellite altimeter data. The present study demonstrates that the improved method provides a more accurate estimate for the waveform inversion and forward prediction of far-field data.

Submarine slope earthquake-induced instability and associated tsunami generation potential along the Hyblean-Malta Escarpment (offshore eastern Sicily, Italy)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ausilia Paparo, Maria; Pagnoni, Gianluca; Zaniboni, Filippo; Tinti, Stefano

2016-04-01

The stability analysis of offshore margins is an important step for the assessment of natural hazard: the main challenge is to evaluate the potential slope failures and the consequent occurrence of submarine tsunamigenic landslides to mitigate the potential coastal damage to inhabitants and infrastructures. But the limited geotechnical knowledge of the underwater soil and the controversial scientific interpretation of the tectonic units make it often difficult to carry out this type of analysis reliably. We select the Hyblean-Malta Escarpment (HME), the main active geological structure offshore eastern Sicily, because the amount of data from historical chronicles, the records about strong earthquakes and tsunami, and the numerous geological offshore surveys carried out in recent years make the region an excellent scenario to evaluate slope failures, mass movements triggered by earthquakes and the consequent tsunamis. We choose several profiles along the HME and analyse their equilibrium conditions using the Minimun Lithostatic Deviation (MLD) method (Tinti and Manucci, 2006, 2008; Paparo et al. 2013), that is based on the limit-equilibrium theory. Considering the morphological and geotechnical features of the offshore slopes, we prove that large-earthquake shaking may lead some zones of the HME to instability, we evaluate the expected volumes involved in sliding and compute the associated landslide-tsunami through numerical tsunami simulations. This work was carried out in the frame of the EU Project called ASTARTE - Assessment, STrategy And Risk Reduction for Tsunamis in Europe (Grant 603839, 7th FP, ENV.2013.6.4-3).

Tsunami Waves Joint Inversion Using Tsunami Inundation, Tsunami Deposits Distribution and Marine-Terrestrial Sediment Signal in Tsunami Deposit

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tang, H.; WANG, J.

2017-12-01

Population living close to coastlines is increasing, which creates higher risks due to coastal hazards, such as the tsunami. However, the generation of a tsunami is not fully understood yet, especially for paleo-tsunami. Tsunami deposits are one of the concrete evidence in the geological record which we can apply for studying paleo-tsunami. The understanding of tsunami deposits has significantly improved over the last decades. There are many inversion models (e.g. TsuSedMod, TSUFLIND, and TSUFLIND-EnKF) to study the overland-flow characteristics based on tsunami deposits. However, none of them tries to reconstruct offshore tsunami wave characteristics (wave form, wave height, and length) based on tsunami deposits. Here we present a state-of-the-art inverse approach to reconstruct offshore tsunami wave based on the tsunami inundation data, the spatial distribution of tsunami deposits and Marine-terrestrial sediment signal in the tsunami deposits. Ensemble Kalman Filter (EnKF) Method is used for assimilating both sediment transport simulations and the field observation data. While more computationally expensive, the EnKF approach potentially provides more accurate reconstructions for tsunami waveform. In addition to the improvement of inversion results, the ensemble-based method can also quantify the uncertainties of the results. Meanwhile, joint inversion improves the resolution of tsunami waves compared with inversions using any single data type. The method will be tested by field survey data and gauge data from the 2011 Tohoku tsunami on Sendai plain area.

Sedimentary record of the 1872 earthquake and "Tsunami" at Owens Lake, southeast California

USGS Publications Warehouse

Smoot, J.P.; Litwin, R.J.; Bischoff, J.L.; Lund, S.J.

2000-01-01

In 1872, a magnitude 7.5-7.7 earthquake vertically offset the Owens Valley fault by more than a meter. An eyewitness reported a large wave on the surface of Owens Lake, presumably initiated by the earthquake. Physical evidence of this event is found in cores and trenches from Owens Lake, including soft-sediment deformation and fault offsets. A graded pebbly sand truncates these features, possibly over most of the lake floor, reflecting the "tsunami" wave. Confirmation of the timing of the event is provided by abnormally high lead concentrations in the sediment immediately above and below these proposed earthquake deposits derived from lead-smelting plants that operated near the eastern lake margin from 1869-1876. The bottom velocity in the deepest part of the lake needed to transport the coarsest grain sizes in the graded pebbly sand provides an estimate of the minimum initial 'tsunami' wave height at 37 cm. This is less than the wave height calculated from long-wave numerical models (about 55 cm) using average fault displacement during the earthquake. Two other graded sand deposits associated with soft-sediment deformation in the Owens Lake record are less than 3000 years old, and are interpreted as evidence of older earthquake and tsunami events. Offsets of the Owens Valley fault elsewhere in the valley indicate that at least two additional large earthquakes occurred during the Holocene, which is consistent with our observations in this lacustrine record.

The Vaigat Rock Avalanche Laboratory, west-central Greenland

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dunning, S.; Rosser, N. J.; Szczucinski, W.; Norman, E. C.; Benjamin, J.; Strzelecki, M.; Long, A. J.; Drewniak, M.

2013-12-01

Rock avalanches have unusually high mobility and pose both an immediate hazard, but also produce far-field impacts associated with dam breach, glacier collapse and where they run-out into water, tsunami. Such secondary hazards can often pose higher risks than the original landslide. The prediction of future threats posed by potential rock avalanches is heavily reliant upon understanding of the physics derived from an interpretation of deposits left by previous events, yet drawing comparisons between multiple events is normally challenging as interactions with complex mountainous terrain makes deposits from each event unique. As such numerical models and the interpretation of the underlying physics which govern landslide mobility is commonly case-specific and poorly suited to extrapolation beyond the single events the model is tuned to. Here we present a high-resolution LiDAR and hyperspectral dataset captured across a unique cluster of large rock avalanche source areas and deposits in the Vaigat straight, west central Greenland. Vaigat offers the unprecedented opportunity to model a sample of > 15 rock avalanches of various age sourced from an 80 km coastal escarpment. At Vaigat many of the key variables (topography, geology, post-glacial history) are held constant across all landslides providing the chance to investigate the variations in dynamics and emplacement style related to variable landslide volume, drop-heights, and thinning/spreading over relatively simple, unrestricted run-out zones both onto land and into water. Our data suggest that this region represents excellent preservation of landslide deposits, and hence is well suited to calibrate numerical models of run out dynamics. We use this data to aid the interpretation of deposit morphology, structure lithology and run-out characteristics in more complex settings. Uniquely, we are also able to calibrate our models using a far-field dataset of well-preserved tsunami run-up deposits, resulting from the 21.11.00 Paatuut landslide. The study was funded by Polish National Science Centre grant No. 2011/01/B/ST10/01553, and project UK NERC ARSF IG13-15.

New seafloor map of the Puerto Rico trench helps assess earthquake and tsunami hazards

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Brink, Uri ten; Danforth, William; Polloni, Christopher; Andrews, Brian; Llanes, Pilar; Smith, Shepard; Parker, Eugene; Uozumi, Toshihiko

2004-09-01

The Puerto Rico Trench, the deepest part of the Atlantic Ocean, is located where the North American (NOAM) plate is subducting under the Caribbean plate (Figure l). The trench region may pose significant seismic and tsunami hazards to Puerto Rico and the U.S.Virgin Islands, where 4 million U.S. citizens reside. Widespread damage in Puerto Rico and Hispaniola from an earthquake in 1787 was estimated to be the result of a magnitude 8 earthquake north of the islands [McCann et al., 2004]. A tsunami killed 40 people in NW Puerto Rico following a magnitude 7.3 earthquake in 1918 [Mercado and McCann, 1998]. Large landslide escarpments have been mapped on the seafloor north of Puerto Rico [Mercado et al., 2002; Schwab et al., 1991],although their ages are unknown.

New seafloor map of the Puerto Rico Trench helps assess earthquake and tsunami hazards

USGS Publications Warehouse

ten Brink, Uri S.; Danforth, William; Polloni, Christopher; Andrews, Brian D.; Llanes Estrada, Pilar; Smith, Shepard; Parker, Eugene; Uozumi, Toshihiko

2004-01-01

The Puerto Rico Trench, the deepest part of the Atlantic Ocean, is located where the North American (NOAM) plate is subducting under the Caribbean plate (Figure l). The trench region may pose significant seismic and tsunami hazards to Puerto Rico and the U.S.Virgin Islands, where 4 million U.S. citizens reside. Widespread damage in Puerto Rico and Hispaniola from an earthquake in 1787 was estimated to be the result of a magnitude 8 earthquake north of the islands [McCann et al., 2004]. A tsunami killed 40 people in NW Puerto Rico following a magnitude 7.3 earthquake in 1918 [Mercado and McCann, 1998]. Large landslide escarpments have been mapped on the seafloor north of Puerto Rico [Mercado et al., 2002; Schwab et al., 1991],although their ages are unknown.

Tsunami simulation method initiated from waveforms observed by ocean bottom pressure sensors for real-time tsunami forecast; Applied for 2011 Tohoku Tsunami

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tanioka, Yuichiro

2017-04-01

After tsunami disaster due to the 2011 Tohoku-oki great earthquake, improvement of the tsunami forecast has been an urgent issue in Japan. National Institute of Disaster Prevention is installing a cable network system of earthquake and tsunami observation (S-NET) at the ocean bottom along the Japan and Kurile trench. This cable system includes 125 pressure sensors (tsunami meters) which are separated by 30 km. Along the Nankai trough, JAMSTEC already installed and operated the cable network system of seismometers and pressure sensors (DONET and DONET2). Those systems are the most dense observation network systems on top of source areas of great underthrust earthquakes in the world. Real-time tsunami forecast has depended on estimation of earthquake parameters, such as epicenter, depth, and magnitude of earthquakes. Recently, tsunami forecast method has been developed using the estimation of tsunami source from tsunami waveforms observed at the ocean bottom pressure sensors. However, when we have many pressure sensors separated by 30km on top of the source area, we do not need to estimate the tsunami source or earthquake source to compute tsunami. Instead, we can initiate a tsunami simulation from those dense tsunami observed data. Observed tsunami height differences with a time interval at the ocean bottom pressure sensors separated by 30 km were used to estimate tsunami height distribution at a particular time. In our new method, tsunami numerical simulation was initiated from those estimated tsunami height distribution. In this paper, the above method is improved and applied for the tsunami generated by the 2011 Tohoku-oki great earthquake. Tsunami source model of the 2011 Tohoku-oki great earthquake estimated using observed tsunami waveforms, coseimic deformation observed by GPS and ocean bottom sensors by Gusman et al. (2012) is used in this study. The ocean surface deformation is computed from the source model and used as an initial condition of tsunami simulation. By assuming that this computed tsunami is a real tsunami and observed at ocean bottom sensors, new tsunami simulation is carried out using the above method. The station distribution (each station is separated by 15 min., about 30 km) observed tsunami waveforms which were actually computed from the source model. Tsunami height distributions are estimated from the above method at 40, 80, and 120 seconds after the origin time of the earthquake. The Near-field Tsunami Inundation forecast method (Gusman et al. 2014) was used to estimate the tsunami inundation along the Sanriku coast. The result shows that the observed tsunami inundation was well explained by those estimated inundation. This also shows that it takes about 10 minutes to estimate the tsunami inundation from the origin time of the earthquake. This new method developed in this paper is very effective for a real-time tsunami forecast.

Post Fukushima tsunami simulations for Malaysian coasts

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Koh, Hock Lye, E-mail: kohhl@ucsiuniversity.edu.my; Teh, Su Yean, E-mail: syteh@usm.my; Abas, Mohd Rosaidi Che

The recent recurrences of mega tsunamis in the Asian region have rekindled concern regarding potential tsunamis that could inflict severe damage to affected coastal facilities and communities. The 11 March 2011 Fukushima tsunami that crippled nuclear power plants in Northern Japan has further raised the level of caution. The recent discovery of petroleum reserves in the coastal water surrounding Malaysia further ignites the concern regarding tsunami hazards to petroleum facilities located along affected coasts. Working in a group, federal government agencies seek to understand the dynamics of tsunami and their impacts under the coordination of the Malaysian National Centre formore » Tsunami Research, Malaysian Meteorological Department. Knowledge regarding the generation, propagation and runup of tsunami would provide the scientific basis to address safety issues. An in-house tsunami simulation models known as TUNA has been developed by the authors to assess tsunami hazards along affected beaches so that mitigation measures could be put in place. Capacity building on tsunami simulation plays a critical role in the development of tsunami resilience. This paper aims to first provide a simple introduction to tsunami simulation towards the achievement of tsunami simulation capacity building. The paper will also present several scenarios of tsunami dangers along affected Malaysia coastal regions via TUNA simulations to highlight tsunami threats. The choice of tsunami generation parameters reflects the concern following the Fukushima tsunami.« less

A short history of tsunami research and countermeasures in Japan.

PubMed

Shuto, Nobuo; Fujima, Koji

2009-01-01

The tsunami science and engineering began in Japan, the country the most frequently hit by local and distant tsunamis. The gate to the tsunami science was opened in 1896 by a giant local tsunami of the highest run-up height of 38 m that claimed 22,000 lives. The crucial key was a tide record to conclude that this tsunami was generated by a "tsunami earthquake". In 1933, the same area was hit again by another giant tsunami. A total system of tsunami disaster mitigation including 10 "hard" and "soft" countermeasures was proposed. Relocation of dwelling houses to high ground was the major countermeasures. The tsunami forecasting began in 1941. In 1960, the Chilean Tsunami damaged the whole Japanese Pacific coast. The height of this tsunami was 5-6 m at most. The countermeasures were the construction of structures including the tsunami breakwater which was the first one in the world. Since the late 1970s, tsunami numerical simulation was developed in Japan and refined to become the UNESCO standard scheme that was transformed to 22 different countries. In 1983, photos and videos of a tsunami in the Japan Sea revealed many faces of tsunami such as soliton fission and edge bores. The 1993 tsunami devastated a town protected by seawalls 4.5 m high. This experience introduced again the idea of comprehensive countermeasures, consisted of defense structure, tsunami-resistant town development and evacuation based on warning.

Development of a Probabilistic Tsunami Hazard Analysis in Japan

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Toshiaki Sakai; Tomoyoshi Takeda; Hiroshi Soraoka

2006-07-01

It is meaningful for tsunami assessment to evaluate phenomena beyond the design basis as well as seismic design. Because once we set the design basis tsunami height, we still have possibilities tsunami height may exceeds the determined design tsunami height due to uncertainties regarding the tsunami phenomena. Probabilistic tsunami risk assessment consists of estimating for tsunami hazard and fragility of structures and executing system analysis. In this report, we apply a method for probabilistic tsunami hazard analysis (PTHA). We introduce a logic tree approach to estimate tsunami hazard curves (relationships between tsunami height and probability of excess) and present anmore » example for Japan. Examples of tsunami hazard curves are illustrated, and uncertainty in the tsunami hazard is displayed by 5-, 16-, 50-, 84- and 95-percentile and mean hazard curves. The result of PTHA will be used for quantitative assessment of the tsunami risk for important facilities located on coastal area. Tsunami hazard curves are the reasonable input data for structures and system analysis. However the evaluation method for estimating fragility of structures and the procedure of system analysis is now being developed. (authors)« less

Tsunami Science for Society

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bernard, E. N.

2014-12-01

As the decade of mega-tsunamis has unfolded with new data, the science of tsunami has advanced at an unprecedented pace. Our responsibility to society should guide the use of these new scientific discoveries to better prepare society for the next tsunami. This presentation will focus on the impacts of the 2004 and 2011 tsunamis and new societal expectations accompanying enhanced funding for tsunami research. A list of scientific products, including tsunami hazard maps, tsunami energy scale, real-time tsunami flooding estimates, and real-time current velocities in harbors will be presented to illustrate society's need for relevant, easy to understand tsunami information. Appropriate use of these tsunami scientific products will be presented to demonstrate greater tsunami resilience for tsunami threatened coastlines. Finally, a scientific infrastructure is proposed to ensure that these products are both scientifically sound and represent today's best practices to protect the scientific integrity of the products as well as the safety of coastal residents.

Amplification of drawdown and runup over Hawaii's insular shelves by tsunami N-waves from mega Aleutian earthquakes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bai, Yefei; Yamazaki, Yoshiki; Cheung, Kwok Fai

2018-04-01

The latest tsunami evacuation maps of Hawaii include an extreme scenario triggered by an Mw 9.3 Aleutian earthquake with large near-trench rupture. The tectonic plate motion produces concentrated seafloor uplift toward the deepest part of the trench generating a tsunami with strong non-hydrostatic characters. A parametric study shows the skewed seafloor uplift produces a dispersive leading crest followed by a prominent trough in the form of an N-wave. The trough maintains its depth across the ocean in the absence of side lobes and dispersion. Shifting of the uplift toward the trench tends to deepen the trough, but has diminishing effects on the wave crest away from the source. While the attenuated leading crest produces relatively moderate runup on north-facing shores of the Hawaiian Islands, with matching of the N-wave and shelf resonance periods, the trough produces an impulsive drawdown followed by an energetic upswing with unprecedented runup for a far-field tsunami. A set of control computations without dispersion reaffirms that a non-hydrostatic model is essential to account for these complex wave processes from the source to the shore. This case study highlights the unique tsunami hazards posed by the Aleutians to Hawaii and the role of wave troughs in delineating the impacts for hazard assessment and engineering design.

Tsunami Vulnerability Assessment In Greece Using Gis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Papathoma, M.; Dominey-Howes, D.; Zong, Y.; Smith, D.

A new methodology is described that uses GIS (Geographical Information System)to determine tsunami vulnerability at different spatial and temporal scales. The method- ology is based on the construction of a GIS database, which may be used by different end-users and under varying hazard scenarios. Primary data are collected for a range of parameters that relate to the natural environment, land use, the built environment, the local economy and services, as well as socio-economic parameters. The methodol- ogy permits interrogation of the primary datasets by several different end-user groups. For example, the GIS may be used: (1) by the emergency services in order to locate large numbers of casualties, to organise the immediate post-tsunami disaster response and to design evacuation routes; (2) by insurance companies in order to set the premi- ums of individual buildings and businesses and (3) by the municipal authorities as a tool for local planning (planning regulations, relocation of buildings). The results of two applications of the methodology in Greece are presented. The first application in Herakleio (Crete) relates to the impact that the 1650AD tsunami would have in the area under the current circumstances. The worse case scenario for the second application is based on the 1963 tsunami, which affected the coastal segment west of Aeghio in Peloponnese. The two case studies provide valuable information for civil protection, disaster management and planning.

Experimental tsunami deposits: Linking hydrodynamics to sediment entrainment, advection lengths and downstream fining

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Johnson, Joel P. L.; Delbecq, Katie; Kim, Wonsuck; Mohrig, David

2016-01-01

A goal of paleotsunami research is to quantitatively reconstruct wave hydraulics from sediment deposits in order to better understand coastal hazards. Simple models have been proposed to predict wave heights and velocities, based largely on deposit grain size distributions (GSDs). Although seemingly consistent with some recent tsunamis, little independent data exist to test these equations. We conducted laboratory experiments to evaluate inversion assumptions and uncertainties. A computer-controlled lift gate instantaneously released 6.5 m3 of water into a 32 m flume with shallow ponded water, creating a hydraulic bore that transported sand from an upstream source dune. Differences in initial GSDs and ponded water depths influenced entrainment, transport, and deposition. While the source dune sand was fully suspendable based on size alone, experimental tsunamis produced deposits dominated by bed load sand transport in the upstream 1/3 of the flume and suspension-dominated transport downstream. The suspension deposits exhibited downstream fining and thinning. At 95% confidence, a published advection-settling model predicts time-averaged flow depths to approximately a factor of two, and time-averaged downstream flow velocities to within a factor of 1.5. Finally, reasonable scaling is found between flume and field cases by comparing flow depths, inundation distances, Froude numbers, Rouse numbers and grain size trends in suspension-dominated tsunami deposits, justifying laboratory study of sediment transport and deposition by tsunamis.

Seismicity of the Earth 1900-2012 Java and vicinity

USGS Publications Warehouse

Jones, Eric S.; Hayes, Gavin P.; Bernardino, Melissa; Dannemann, Fransiska K.; Furlong, Kevin P.; Benz, Harley M.; Villaseñor, Antonio

2014-01-01

The Sunda convergent margin extends for 5,600 km from the Bay of Bengal and the Andaman Sea, both located northwest of the map area, towards the island of Sumba in the southeast, and then continues eastward as the Banda arc system. This tectonically active margin is a result of the India and Australia plates converging with and subducting beneath the Sunda plate at a rate of approximately 50 to 70 mm/yr. The main physiographic feature associated with this convergent margin is the Sunda-Java Trench, which stretches for 3,000 km parallel to the Java and Sumatra land masses and terminates at 120° E. The convergence of the Indo-Australia and Sunda plates produces two active volcanic arcs: Sunda, which extends from 105 to 122° E and Banda, which extends from 122 to 128° E. The Sunda arc results solely from relatively simple oceanic plate subduction, while the Banda arc represents the transition from oceanic subduction to continental collision, where a complex, broad deforming zone is found. Based on modern activity, the Banda arc can be divided into three distinct zones: an inactive section, the Wetar Zone, bound by two active segments, the Flores Zone in the west and the Damar Zone in the east. The lack of volcanism in the Wetar Zone is attributed to the collision of Australia with the Sunda plate. The absence of gap in volcanic activity is underlain by a gap in intermediate depth seismicity, which is in contrast to nearly continuous, deep seismicity below all three sections of the arc. The Flores Zone is characterized by down-dip compression in the subducted slab at intermediate depths and late Quaternary uplift of the forearc. These unusual features, along with GPS data interpretations indicate that the Flores Zone marks the transition between subduction of oceanic crust in the west and the collision of continental crust in the east. The Java section of the Sunda arc is considered relatively aseismic historically when compared to the highly seismically active Sumatra section, despite both areas being located along the same active subduction margin. Shallow (0–20 km) events have occurred historically in the overlying Sunda plate, causing damage to local and regional communities. A recent example was the May 26, 2006 M6.3 left-lateral strike-slip event that occurred at a depth of 10 km in central Java, and caused over 5,700 fatalities. Intermediate depth (70–300 km) earthquakes frequently occur beneath Java as a result of intraplate faulting within the Australia slab. Deep (300–650 km) earthquakes occur beneath the Java Sea and the back-arc region to the north of Java. Similar to other intermediate depth events, these earthquakes are also associated with intraslab faulting. However, this subduction zone exhibits a gap in seismicity from 250 to 400 km, interpreted as the transition between extensional and compressional slab stresses. Historical examples of large intraplate events include: the 1903 M8.1 event, 1921 M7.5 event, 1977 M8.3 event, and August 2007 M7.5 event. Large thrust earthquakes close to the Java trench are typically interplate faulting events along the slab interface between the Australia and Sunda plates. These earthquakes also generally have high tsunamigenic potential due to their shallow hypocentral depths. In some cases, these events have demonstrated slow moment-release and have been defined as ‘tsunami’ earthquakes, where rupture is large in the weak crustal layers very close to the seafloor. These events are categorized by tsunamis that are significantly larger than predicted by the earthquake’s magnitude. The most notable tsunami earthquakes in the Java region occurred on June 2, 1994 (M7.8) and July 17, 2006 (M7.7). The 1994 event produced a tsunami with wave runup heights of 13 m, killing over 200 people. The 2006 event produced a tsunami of up to 15 m, and killed 730 people. Although both of these tsunami earthquakes were characterized by rupture along thrust faults, they were followed by an abundance of normal faulting aftershocks. These aftershocks are interpreted to result from extension within the subducting Australia plate, whereas the mainshocks represented interplate faulting between the Australia and Sunda plates.

Geologic evidence for a tsunami source along the trench northeast of Puerto Rico

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Atwater, B. F.; Ten Brink, U. S.; Feuillet, N.; Fuentes, Z.; Robert, H.; Tuttle, M. P.; Wei, Y.; jennifer, W.

2012-12-01

Coral boulders of medieval age at Anegada, British Virgin Islands, calibrated to local geologic effects of far-field tsunamis and hurricanes, provide tangible evidence for the generation of a tsunami by faulting along the eastern Puerto Rico Trench. SETTING: Anegada is 120 km south of the Puerto Rico Trench and 200 km east-northeast of San Juan. It is fringed on the north and east by a coral reef 100-1200 m offshore; founded on Pleistocene carbonate with a cemented cap; rimmed on much of its perimeter by sandy Holocene beach ridges; and bermed with coral-rubble on a rocky stretch of its north shore. CORAL BOULDERS: Scores of coral heads up to 2 m in diameter were moved across the north shore in medieval time. Some crossed the line of the modern storm berm, continued over a limestone rise 4 m above sea level, and came to rest on lower ground hundreds of meters farther south. Others traversed beach ridges, and two of these boulders are now 1.5 km from the fringing reef. Most of the boulders are Diploria strigosa, an endemic of reef flanks. Some retain enough of their originally rounded, dimpled shape to have been deposited live. The likely time of emplacement of freshly dislodged, still-living heads is AD 1200-1450. This range is based on radiocarbon dating of outer growth bands of 18 heads from 5 separate areas. The youngest of the ages is 890±25 14C yr BP, and the ΔR assumed is 0 to -200 14C yr. CALIBRATION TO A FAR-FIELD TSUNAMI: Deposits dated to 1650-1800 at Anegada represent either the largest known far-field tsunami in the Caribbean (1755 Lisbon) or some other tsunami or unusual storm that surpassed the Lisbon tsunami in its local geologic effects. The water cut or freshened breaches in north-shore beach ridges and poured into a marine pond, where it moved limestone boulders and laid down a sheet of sand and shell that extends as much as 1.5 km inland [refs 1-4]. Many of the limestone boulders were probably inherited from the higher, earlier overwash that created the coral-boulder fields. We had expected the coral boulders to date from 1650-1800, but instead obtained only the pre-Columbus ages cited above. CALIBRATION TO HURRICANES: Hurricanes Donna (1960) and Earl (2010) rank below the 1650-1800 overwash in their Anegada effects. Their coarse deposits are limited to sandy spillover fans that extend a few tens of meters inland from the south shore, where Anegada is most vulnerable to storm surge, and to the coral-rubble berm on the north shore, where the medieval overwash ran hundreds of meters farther inland. Both Donna and Earl approached or attained category 4 as their eyes passed within 35 km of the island. If a larger hurricane managed to produce the inland fields of scattered coral boulders, the coral ages limit this perfect storm to pre-Columbus time. NEARBY TSUNAMI SOURCES. The likely source is a belt of normal faults scarps on the outer rise 200 km to Anegada's north. A giant thrust earthquake on the North America - Caribbean plate boundary is unlikely according to a GPS-based model of interplate coupling [5]. No submarine slides are apparent in multibeam bathymetry of the submarine slope that descends northward from Anegada's fringing reef to the Puerto Rico Trench floor [6). COMPANION ABSTRACTS: Coral-boulder ages (Weil Accardo), storm and tsunami modeling (Wei). REFERENCES: [1-4] Natural Hazards 63 (1), 51-149; [5] GRL 39, L10304; [6] Eos 85 (37), 349.

Tsunami Source Model of the 2004 Sumatra-Andaman Earthquake inferred from Tide Gauge and Satellite Data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fujii, Y.; Satake, K.

2005-12-01

The tsunami generation process of the 2004 Sumatra-Andaman earthquake were estimated from the tsunami waveforms recorded on tide gauges and sea surface heights captured by satellite altimetry measurements over the Indian Ocean. The earthquake (0:58:53, 26, Dec., 2004, UTC), the largest in the last 40 years, caused devastating tsunami damages to the countries around the Indian Ocean. One of the important questions is the source length; the aftershocks were distributed along the Sunda trench for 1000 to 1200 km, from off northwestern part of Sumatra island through Nicobar islands to Andaman island, while seismic wave analyses indicate much shorter source length (several hundred km). We used instrumental data of this tsunami, tide gauges and sea surface heights. Tide gauge data have been collected by Global Sea Level Observing System (GLOSS). We have also used another tide gauges data for tsunami simulation analysis. Tsunami propagation was captured as sea surface heights of Jason-1 satellite altimetry measurements over the Indian Ocean for the first time (Gower, 2005). We numerically compute tsunami propagation on actually bathymetry. ETOPO2 (Smith and Sandwell, 1997), the gridded data of global ocean depth from bathymetry soundings and satellite gravity data, are less reliable in the shallow ocean. To improve the accuracy, we have digitized the charts near coasts and merged the digitized data with the ETOPO2 data. The long-wave equation and the equation of motion were numerically solved by finite-difference method (Satake, 1995). As the initial condition, a static deformation of seafloor has been calculated using rectangular fault model (Okada, 1985). The source region is divided into 22 subfaults. We fixed the size and geometry of each subfault, and varied the slip amount and rise time (or slip duration) for each subfault, and rupture velocity. Tsunami waveforms or Greens functions for each subfault were calculated for the rise times of 3, 10, 30 and 60 minutes. Rupture velocities were varied for 0.7, 1.7 and 2.5 km/s. Forward modeling indicates that the best fits between the observed and computed waveforms were obtained in the case of rupture velocity 1.7 km/s and rise time 3 minutes. The slip was large in the southern part of the source region.

Field Survey of the 17 June 2017 Landslide and Tsunami in Karrat Fjord, Greenland

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fritz, H. M.; Giachetti, T.; Anderson, S.; Gauthier, D.

2017-12-01

On 17 June 2017 a massive landslide generated tsunami impacted Karrat Fjord and the Uummannaq fjord system located some 280 km north of Ilulissat in western Greenland. The eastern of two easily recognized landslides detached completely and fell approximately 1 km to sea level, before plunging into the Karrat Fjord and generating a tsunami within the fjord system. The landslide generated tsunami washed 4 victims and several houses into the fjord at Nuugaatsiaq, about 30 km west of the landslide. Eyewitnesses at Nuugaatsiaq and Illorsuit recorded the tsunami inundation on videos. The active western landslide features a back scarp and large cracks, and therefore remains a threat in Karrat Fjord. The villages of Nuugaatsiaq and Illorsuit remain evacuated. The Geotechnical Extreme Events Reconnaissance (GEER) survey team deployed to Greenland from July 6 to 9, 2017. The reconnaissance on July 8 involved approximately 800 km of helicopter flight and landings in several key locations. The survey focused on the landslides and coastlines within 30 km of the landslide in either fjord direction. The aerial reconnaissance collected high quality oblique aerial photogrammetry (OAP) of the landslide, scarp, and debris avalanche track. The 3D model of the landslide provides the ability to study the morphology of the slope on July 8, it provides a baseline model for future surveys, and it can be used to compare to earlier imagery to estimate what happened on June 17. Change detection using prior satellite imagery indicates an approximate 55 million m3 total landslide volume of which 45 million m3 plunged into the fjord from elevations up to 1200 m above the water surface. The ground based tsunami survey documented flow depths, runup heights, inundation distances, sediment deposition, damage patterns at various scales, performance of the man-made infrastructure, and impact on the natural and glacial environment. Perishable high-water marks include changes in vegetation and damage to roots, deposits and scour of soil and rock, stranded icebergs, as well as damage to homes and infrastructure. The tsunami runup heights exceeded 90 m laterally to the west of the landslide and 50 m across the 6 km wide fjord. The Greenland landslide generated tsunami highlights coastal hazards to communities not commonly exposed to earthquake generated tsunamis.

Tsunami Source Modeling of the 2015 Volcanic Tsunami Earthquake near Torishima, South of Japan

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sandanbata, O.; Watada, S.; Satake, K.; Fukao, Y.; Sugioka, H.; Ito, A.; Shiobara, H.

2017-12-01

An abnormal earthquake occurred at a submarine volcano named Smith Caldera, near Torishima Island on the Izu-Bonin arc, on May 2, 2015. The earthquake, which hereafter we call "the 2015 Torishima earthquake," has a CLVD-type focal mechanism with a moderate seismic magnitude (M5.7) but generated larger tsunami waves with an observed maximum height of 50 cm at Hachijo Island [JMA, 2015], so that the earthquake can be regarded as a "tsunami earthquake." In the region, similar tsunami earthquakes were observed in 1984, 1996 and 2006, but their physical mechanisms are still not well understood. Tsunami waves generated by the 2015 earthquake were recorded by an array of ocean bottom pressure (OBP) gauges, 100 km northeastern away from the epicenter. The waves initiated with a small downward signal of 0.1 cm and reached peak amplitude (1.5-2.0 cm) of leading upward signals followed by continuous oscillations [Fukao et al., 2016]. For modeling its tsunami source, or sea-surface displacement, we perform tsunami waveform simulations, and compare synthetic and observed waveforms at the OBP gauges. The linear Boussinesq equations are adapted with the tsunami simulation code, JAGURS [Baba et al., 2015]. We first assume a Gaussian-shaped sea-surface uplift of 1.0 m with a source size comparable to Smith Caldera, 6-7 km in diameter. By shifting source location around the caldera, we found the uplift is probably located within the caldera rim, as suggested by Sandanbata et al. [2016]. However, synthetic waves show no initial downward signal that was observed at the OBP gauges. Hence, we add a ring of subsidence surrounding the main uplift, and examine sizes and amplitudes of the main uplift and the subsidence ring. As a result, the model of a main uplift of around 1.0 m with a radius of 4 km surrounded by a ring of small subsidence shows good agreement of synthetic and observed waveforms. The results yield two implications for the deformation process that help us to understanding the physical mechanism of the 2015 Torishima earthquake. First, the estimated large uplift within Smith Caldera implies the earthquake may be related to some volcanic activity of the caldera. Secondly, the modeled ring of subsidence surrounding the caldera suggests that the process may have included notable subsidence, at least on the northeastern side out of the caldera.

Analysis of geodetic interseismic coupling models to estimate tsunami inundation and runup: a study case of Maule seismic gap, Chile

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

González-Carrasco, J. F.; Gonzalez, G.; Aránguiz, R.; Catalan, P. A.; Cienfuegos, R.; Urrutia, A.; Shrivastava, M. N.; Yagi, Y.; Moreno, M.

2015-12-01

Tsunami inundation maps are a powerful tool to design evacuation plans of coastal communities, additionally can be used as a guide to territorial planning and assessment of structural damages in port facilities and critical infrastructure (Borrero et al., 2003; Barberopoulou et al., 2011; Power et al., 2012; Mueller et al., 2015). The accuracy of inundation estimation is highly correlated with tsunami initial conditions, e.g. seafloor vertical deformation, displaced water volume and potential energy (Bolshakova et al., 2011). Usually, the initial conditions are estimated using homogeneous rupture models based in historical worst-case scenario. However tsunamigenic events occurred in central Chilean continental margin showed a heterogeneous slip distribution of source with patches of high slip, correlated with fully-coupled interseismic zones (Moreno et al., 2012). The main objective of this work is to evaluate the predictive capacity of interseismic coupling models based on geodetic data comparing them with homogeneous fault slip model constructed using scaling laws (Blaser et al., 2010) to estimate inundation and runup in coastal areas. To test our hypothesis we select a seismic gap of Maule, where occurred the last large tsunamigenic earthquake in the chilean subduction zone, using the interseismic coupling models (ISC) proposed by Moreno et al., 2011 and Métois et al., 2013. We generate a slip deficit distribution to build a tsunami source supported by geological information such as slab depth (Hayes et al., 2012), strike, rake and dip (Dziewonski et al., 1981; Ekström et al., 2012) to model tsunami generation, propagation and shoreline impact using Neowave 2D (Yamazaki et al., 2009). We compare the tsunami scenario of Mw 8.8, Maule based in coseismic slip distribution proposed by Moreno et al., 2012 with homogeneous and heterogeneous models to identify the accuracy of our results with sea level time series and regional runup data (Figure 1). The estimation of tsunami source using ISC model can be useful to improve the analysis of tsunami threat, based in more realistic slip distribution.

Early-Ming Era tsunami destruction along the Northern Coast of Aceh, Indonesia: New evidence from Archeology

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sieh, K.; Daly, P.; McKinnon, E. E.; Tai, Y. S.; Feener, R. M.; Ishmail, N.

2017-12-01

Our colleagues and we have reconstructed partial earthquake and tsunami histories along the coast of Aceh, Sumatra. Chlieh et al (2006) documented and modeled deformation of offshore islands associated with the 2004 rupture. Meltzner et al (2010) found coral evidence of uplifts in 1394±2 and 1450±3 CE. Sieh et al. (2015) documented associated tsunami that destroyed a structure built in 1366±3 CE, 40 km east of Banda Aceh at Lamreh. Since 2015, our landscape archaeology survey of 43 coastal villages over a 40-km reach of the coast has revealed 995 archaeological sites ranging from 10th century to present and containing over 5,000 carved gravestones and 50,000 ceramic sherds. The distribution of ceramic material suggests 7 discrete areas of cultural activity before the 1394 tsunami. Six of these appear to be villages that used imported ceramics and have been populated since the 10th century. However, detailed analysis indicates a clear reduction in activity between 1360 and 1450 CE. This suggests that one or both of the 1394 and 1450 tsunami disrupted the villages. The distribution of post-1500 CE ceramic material shows a gradual repopulation of pre-tsunami sites and a significant expansion of activity starting at the end of the 16th Century, for all areas except Lamreh. Only at on the elevated Lambaro highlands, above modern Lamreh, does material conclusively date between the 1394 and 1450 CE tsunamis. This historic trading site of "Lambri" contains large quantities of ceramics ranging from the early 11th century until the early 16th century, including precisely dated early-Ming (1403-1425 CE) material, some of which is distinctive imperial trade ceramics. We suspect that after the 1394 tsunami destroyed the other coastal settlements, the relatively safe highlands of Lambri were the only areas of the coast utilized for at least 50 years. After about 1450 CE, however, these highlands were abandoned, while the low-lying coastal communities began once again to flourish. For more details, please visit our poster.

Seismogeodesy for rapid earthquake and tsunami characterization

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bock, Y.

2016-12-01

Rapid estimation of earthquake magnitude and fault mechanism is critical for earthquake and tsunami warning systems. Traditionally, the monitoring of earthquakes and tsunamis has been based on seismic networks for estimating earthquake magnitude and slip, and tide gauges and deep-ocean buoys for direct measurement of tsunami waves. These methods are well developed for ocean basin-wide warnings but are not timely enough to protect vulnerable populations and infrastructure from the effects of local tsunamis, where waves may arrive within 15-30 minutes of earthquake onset time. Direct measurements of displacements by GPS networks at subduction zones allow for rapid magnitude and slip estimation in the near-source region, that are not affected by instrumental limitations and magnitude saturation experienced by local seismic networks. However, GPS displacements by themselves are too noisy for strict earthquake early warning (P-wave detection). Optimally combining high-rate GPS and seismic data (in particular, accelerometers that do not clip), referred to as seismogeodesy, provides a broadband instrument that does not clip in the near field, is impervious to magnitude saturation, and provides accurate real-time static and dynamic displacements and velocities in real time. Here we describe a NASA-funded effort to integrate GPS and seismogeodetic observations as part of NOAA's Tsunami Warning Centers in Alaska and Hawaii. It consists of a series of plug-in modules that allow for a hierarchy of rapid seismogeodetic products, including automatic P-wave picking, hypocenter estimation, S-wave prediction, magnitude scaling relationships based on P-wave amplitude (Pd) and peak ground displacement (PGD), finite-source CMT solutions and fault slip models as input for tsunami warnings and models. For the NOAA/NASA project, the modules are being integrated into an existing USGS Earthworm environment, currently limited to traditional seismic data. We are focused on a network of dozens of seismogeodetic stations available through the Pacific Northwest Seismic Network (University of Washington), the Plate Boundary Observatory (UNAVCO) and the Pacific Northwest Geodetic Array (Central Washington University) as the basis for local tsunami warnings for a large subduction zone earthquake in Cascadia.

“Hello, HELLO! Anyone there? - on the need to assess the tsunami risk to global submarine telecommunications infrastructure

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dominey-Howes, D.; Goff, J. R.

2009-12-01

National economies are increasingly dependent on the global telecommunications system - and in particular, its submarine cable infrastructure. Submarine cable traffic represents about 30% of global GDP so the cost of losing, or even simply slowing, communications traffic is high. Many natural hazards are capable of damaging and destroying this infrastructure but tsunamis are the most significant threat, particularly in waters >1000 m deep. Submarine cables and their shore-based infrastructure (the anchor points), are at risk from direct and indirect tsunami-related effects. During the 2004 Indian Ocean Tsunami in India and Indonesia, cables were broken (direct effect) as the tsunami eroded supporting sediments, and were further damaged by floating/submerged objects and intense nearshore currents. Shore-based infrastructure was also directly damaged in India, Indonesia, and the Maldives. The 1929 Grand Banks earthquake generated a submarine landslide and tsunami off Newfoundland which broke 12 submarine telegraph cables. In 2006, an earthquake in Taiwan generated submarine landslides and a tsunami. These landslides caused one of the largest disruptions of modern telecommunications history when nine cables in the Strait of Luzon were broken disabling vital connections between SE Asia and the rest of the world. Although electronic traffic in and out of Australia was slowed, it did not cease because >70% of our traffic is routed via cables that pass through Hawaii. This is extremely significant because Hawaii is an internationally recognised bottleneck or “choke point” in the global telecommunications network. The fact that Hawaii is a choke point is important because it is regularly affected by numerous large magnitude natural hazards. Any damage to the submarine telecommunications infrastructure routed through Hawaii could result in significant impacts on the electronic flow of data and voice traffic, negatively affecting dependent economies such as Australia. Other choke points exist globally, many in high hazards regions. We propose that proper risk assessments be undertaken at all bottlenecks in the global telecommunications system affected by natural hazards (such as tsunami). We use Hawaii as an example of the sort of research that should be undertaken.

Comparison and Computational Performance of Tsunami-HySEA and MOST Models for the LANTEX 2013 scenario

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

González-Vida, Jose M.; Macías, Jorge; Mercado, Aurelio; Ortega, Sergio; Castro, Manuel J.

2017-04-01

Tsunami-HySEA model is used to simulate the Caribbean LANTEX 2013 scenario (LANTEX is the acronym for Large AtlaNtic Tsunami EXercise, which is carried out annually). The numerical simulation of the propagation and inundation phases, is performed with both models but using different mesh resolutions and nested meshes. Some comparisons with the MOST tsunami model available at the University of Puerto Rico (UPR) are made. Both models compare well for propagating tsunami waves in open sea, producing very similar results. In near-shore shallow waters, Tsunami-HySEA should be compared with the inundation version of MOST, since the propagation version of MOST is limited to deeper waters. Regarding the inundation phase, a 1 arc-sec (approximately 30 m) resolution mesh covering all of Puerto Rico, is used, and a three-level nested meshes technique implemented. In the inundation phase, larger differences between model results are observed. Nevertheless, the most striking difference resides in computational time; Tsunami-HySEA is coded using the advantages of GPU architecture, and can produce a 4 h simulation in a 60 arcsec resolution grid for the whole Caribbean Sea in less than 4 min with a single general-purpose GPU and as fast as 11 s with 32 general-purpose GPUs. In the inundation stage with nested meshes, approximately 8 hours of wall clock time is needed for a 2-h simulation in a single GPU (versus more than 2 days for the MOST inundation, running three different parts of the island—West, Center, East—at the same time due to memory limitations in MOST). When domain decomposition techniques are finally implemented by breaking up the computational domain into sub-domains and assigning a GPU to each sub-domain (multi-GPU Tsunami-HySEA version), we show that the wall clock time significantly decreases, allowing high-resolution inundation modelling in very short computational times, reducing, for example, if eight GPUs are used, the wall clock time to around 1 hour. Besides, these computational times are obtained using general-purpose GPU hardware.

Local variation of inundation, sedimentary characteristics, and mineral assemblages of the 2011 Tohoku-oki tsunami on the Misawa coast, Aomori, Japan

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nakamura, Yugo; Nishimura, Yuichi; Putra, Purna Sulastya

2012-12-01

The 2011 Tohoku-oki tsunami caused severe damage to the coastal regions of eastern Japan and left a sediment veneer over affected areas. We discuss differences in depositional characteristics of the 2011 Tohoku-oki tsunami from the viewpoint of the sediment source, coastal topography and flow height. The study area on the Misawa coast, northern Tohoku, includes a 20 km long coastline with sandy beaches, coastal dunes and a gently sloping lowland. This landscape assemblage provides an opportunity to examine the effects of topography on the characteristics of the tsunami deposit. During field surveys conducted from April 10 to May 2, 2011, we described the thickness, facies, and structure of the tsunami deposit. We also collected sand samples at approximately 20 m intervals along 13 shore-perpendicular transects extending up to 550 m inland, for grain size and mineral assemblage analysis. The tsunami flow height was estimated by measuring the elevation of debris found in trees, broken tree limbs, or water marks on buildings. The nature of the coastal lowland affected the flow height and inundation distance. In the southern part of the study area, where there is a narrow, 100 m wide low-lying coastal strip, the run-up height reached 10 m on the landward terrace slopes. To the north, the maximum inundation reached 550 m with a run-up height of 3.2 m on the wider, low-lying coastal topography. The average flow height was 4-5 m. The tsunami eroded coastal dunes and formed small scarps along the coast. Immediately landward of the coastal dunes the tsunami deposit was more than 20 cm thick, but thinned markedly inland from this point. Close to the dunes the deposit was composed largely of medium sand (1-2 Φ) with planar and parallel bedding, but with no apparent upward fining or coarsening. The grain size was similar to that of the coastal dune and we infer that the dunes were the local source material for the tsunami deposit at this point. The mineral assemblage of the tsunami deposit was dominated by orthopyroxene and clinopyroxene and was also similar to the dune and beach sand. At sites more than half the inundation distance inland, the thinner tsunami deposit consisted mainly of fine sand (2.375 Φ) with some upward fining. The difference in grain size and sedimentary characteristics was probably caused by differences in sediment transportation and depositional processes. We infer that the well-sorted, finer sediments were deposited out of suspension, whereas the relatively coarse sands were laid down from traction flows. The depositional characteristics of the 2011 Tohoku-oki tsunami deposit appeared to have been affected mainly by the coastal topography and the extent of erosion at any one point, as opposed to flow height.

Impact of a Cosmic Body into Earth's Ocean and the Generation of Large Tsunami Waves: Insight from Numerical Modeling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wünnemann, K.; Collins, G. S.; Weiss, R.

2010-12-01

The strike of a cosmic body into a marine environment differs in several respects from impact on land. Oceans cover approximately 70% of the Earth's surface, implying not only that oceanic impact is a very likely scenario for future impacts but also that most impacts in Earth's history must have happened in marine environments. Therefore, the study of oceanic impact is imperative in two respects: (1) to quantify the hazard posed by future oceanic impacts, including the potential threat of large impact-generated tsunami-like waves, and (2) to reconstruct Earth's impact record by accounting for the large number of potentially undiscovered crater structures in the ocean crust. Reconstruction of the impact record is of crucial importance both for assessing the frequency of collision events in the past and for better predicting the probability of future impact. We summarize the advances in the study of oceanic impact over the last decades and focus in particular on how numerical models have improved our understanding of cratering in the oceanic environment and the generation of waves by impact. We focus on insight gleaned from numerical modeling studies into the deceleration of the projectile by the water, cratering of the ocean floor, the late stage modification of the crater due to gravitational collapse, and water resurge. Furthermore, we discuss the generation and propagation of large tsunami-like waves as a result of a strike of a cosmic body in marine environments.

A short history of tsunami research and countermeasures in Japan

PubMed Central

Shuto, Nobuo; Fujima, Koji

2009-01-01

The tsunami science and engineering began in Japan, the country the most frequently hit by local and distant tsunamis. The gate to the tsunami science was opened in 1896 by a giant local tsunami of the highest run-up height of 38 m that claimed 22,000 lives. The crucial key was a tide record to conclude that this tsunami was generated by a “tsunami earthquake”. In 1933, the same area was hit again by another giant tsunami. A total system of tsunami disaster mitigation including 10 “hard” and “soft” countermeasures was proposed. Relocation of dwelling houses to high ground was the major countermeasures. The tsunami forecasting began in 1941. In 1960, the Chilean Tsunami damaged the whole Japanese Pacific coast. The height of this tsunami was 5–6 m at most. The countermeasures were the construction of structures including the tsunami breakwater which was the first one in the world. Since the late 1970s, tsunami numerical simulation was developed in Japan and refined to become the UNESCO standard scheme that was transformed to 22 different countries. In 1983, photos and videos of a tsunami in the Japan Sea revealed many faces of tsunami such as soliton fission and edge bores. The 1993 tsunami devastated a town protected by seawalls 4.5 m high. This experience introduced again the idea of comprehensive countermeasures, consisted of defense structure, tsunami-resistant town development and evacuation based on warning. PMID:19838008

Preliminary report on crustal deformation surveys and tsunami measurements due to the July 17, 2006 Java Earthquake and Tsunami, Indonesia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kato, T.; Ito, T.; Abidin, H. Z.; Agustan, A.

2006-12-01

A large earthquake along a plate boundary occurred in the south of Java Island on July 17, 2006, whose magnitude was 7.7 (USGS) and caused significant tsunami. We made GPS observations and tsunami heights measurements during the period from July 24 to August 1, 2006. The earthquake seems to be due to an interplate low angle reverse faulting (e.g. Yagi, 2006). Yet, there would be a possibility of high angle faulting within the subducting lithosphere (e.g., Yamanaka, 2006). Crustal deformation distribution due to the earthquake, aided by tsunami heights measurements, might clarify which would be the case. We occupied 29 sites by GPS in the area of southern Java Island encompassing the area from 107.8E to 109.50E. These sites were occupied once before the earthquake so that co-seismic displacements might be seen. If we assume that the slip on the fault surface is as that estimated assuming magnitude to be 7.7, co- seismic displacements would be as small as a few centimeters or less. However, the tsunami heights measurements at 11 sites that were conducted along with the GPS observation were 6-7m along the southern coast of Java Islands and indicates that the observed heights are systematically higher than that estimated from numerical simulations (e.g., Koshimura, 2006). This might suggest that fault offsets have been larger nearly double - than that estimated using seismic analysis. If this is the case, the co-seismic crustal movements might be larger than above estimation. This might lead us to an idea that the rupture was very slow and did not radiate enough seismic energy to underestimate the earthquake magnitude. If this is the case, the earthquake might have been a "tsunami earthquake" that is similar to the one that occurred on June 2, 1994 in the east of the present earthquake.

The tsunami effects of a volcanic island flank collapse on a semi-enclosed basin: The Pico-São Jorge channel in the Azores archipelago

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Quartau, R.; Omira, R.; Ramalho, I.; Baptista, M. A.; Mitchell, N. C.

2015-12-01

The Azores archipelago is a set of nine volcanic islands in the middle of the North Atlantic, close to the triple junction between the North American, Eurasian and African plates. Due to their location, the islands are seismic and volcanically active, which makes them especially vulnerable to these types of hazards that could eventually trigger flank collapses, capable of generating destructive tsunamis. However, solid evidence of large-scale flank collapses has only been found recently in Pico Island (Costa et al., 2014; Quartau et al., 2015). This study investigates for the first time the tsunami effects of a flank collapse of the northeastern subaerial slope of Pico Island that occurred more than 70 ka ago. We first reconstructed the pre-event sub-aerial morphology of the island, and then numerically model the flank failure involving an estimated volume of ~8 km3, its flow toward and under the sea of ~14 km, and the subsequent tsunami generation and propagation. The modelling suggests that the collapse of Pico created a mega-tsunami that significantly impacted the coast of adjacent São Jorge Island only after 7 minutes after generation, with wave run-up reaching a maximum of 50 m at some coastlines. Most of the tsunami energy became trapped in the semi-enclosed basin between Pico and São Jorge Islands, with only relatively little energy escaping to neighboring islands. Acknowledgments The author wishes to acknowledge the European Union's Seventh Framework Programme (FP7/2007-2013) under grant agreement n° 603839 (Project ASTARTE - Assessment, Strategy and Risk Reduction for Tsunamis in Europe)" for its major contribution for the success of this study. Publication supported by project FCT UID/GEO/50019/2013 - Instituto Dom Luiz. The author also acknowledges Fundação Luso-Americana para o Desenvolvimento for supporting the participation in the meeting.

How much does geometry of seismic sources matter in tsunami modeling? A sensitivity analysis for the Calabrian subduction interface

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tonini, R.; Maesano, F. E.; Tiberti, M. M.; Romano, F.; Scala, A.; Lorito, S.; Volpe, M.; Basili, R.

2017-12-01

The geometry of seismogenic sources could be one of the most important factors concurring to control the generation and the propagation of earthquake-generated tsunamis and their effects on the coasts. Since the majority of potentially tsunamigenic earthquakes occur offshore, the corresponding faults are generally poorly constrained and, consequently, their geometry is often oversimplified as a planar fault. The rupture area of mega-thrust earthquakes in subduction zones, where most of the greatest tsunamis have occurred, extends for tens to hundreds of kilometers both down dip and along strike, and generally deviates from the planar geometry. Therefore, the larger the earthquake size is, the weaker the planar fault assumption become. In this work, we present a sensitivity analysis aimed to explore the effects on modeled tsunamis generated by seismic sources with different degrees of geometric complexities. We focused on the Calabrian subduction zone, located in the Mediterranean Sea, which is characterized by the convergence between the African and European plates, with rates of up to 5 mm/yr. This subduction zone has been considered to have generated some past large earthquakes and tsunamis, despite it shows only in-slab significant seismic activity below 40 km depth and no relevant seismicity in the shallower portion of the interface. Our analysis is performed by defining and modeling an exhaustive set of tsunami scenarios located in the Calabrian subduction and using different models of the subduction interface with increasing geometrical complexity, from a planar surface to a highly detailed 3D surface. The latter was obtained from the interpretation of a dense network of seismic reflection profiles coupled with the analysis of the seismicity distribution. The more relevant effects due to the inclusion of 3D complexities in the seismic source geometry are finally highlighted in terms of the resulting tsunami impact.

Evidence of an ancient tsunami in a marine cave at Koh Phi Phi islands (Thailand)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gilli, E.

2009-04-01

The december 26th tsunami in the Indian Ocean has severely damaged the Koh Phi Phi Island (Krabi-Thailand) a place that is famous for its karstic landscapes and diving spots on coral reefs. Enquiries and geomorphological observations indicate that the wave was 5 to 8 meters hight. In the Tonsay area, where the main human settlements are located, the inland penetration of the sea water was up to 300 meters from the seashore. The main morphological effects were : · denudation of the soil substratum, · deposit of unclassified sand, coral clasts and shells, · creation of a small cliff, · important damage to corals at depths down to 20 m, · mobilisation and alignement of important coral blocks in shallow waters. Observations suggest the existence of a previous important tsunami in that area : · the presence of ancient coral clasts in the soil, · in two bore holes, coral clasts are present at a depth of 70 cm · aerial views of the beaches and coral reefs before he tsunami show aligned structures A more precise observation in a marine cave confirms it. Close to Koh Phi Phi, the small island of Phi Phi Ley contains a cave where bird nests are collected by sea Gypsies. The Tham Phaya Nak cave is a large chamber whose entrance is partially closed by large limestone blocks except at its northern part where the sea can reach the interior of the chamber. In that area, no evidence of the 26th december tsunami is noticeable, but a layer of older coral clasts is observable. The size (up to 30 cm) and the position (flattened against stalagmites) of the clasts reveal the existence of a powerfull wave that entered far into the cave. Due to the important population of cave swallows, the soil is covered with guano. The relatively thin layer of guano over the clasts suggest a recent age. Outside the cave the speleothems that are present on the limestone cliffs are frequently broken a few meters above the sea level. This could have also been provoked by powerfull waves. Several historical or acheo-tsunamis are possible candidates to explain the damage, like the 1907 indonesian tsunami (Ms 7.80) or older events (600 yrs ago) whose effects have recently been observed in the coastal sediments of this area in Thaïland and Indonesia by differents teams.

Model validation and error estimation of tsunami runup using high resolution data in Sadeng Port, Gunungkidul, Yogyakarta

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Basith, Abdul; Prakoso, Yudhono; Kongko, Widjo

2017-07-01

A tsunami model using high resolution geometric data is indispensable in efforts to tsunami mitigation, especially in tsunami prone areas. It is one of the factors that affect the accuracy results of numerical modeling of tsunami. Sadeng Port is a new infrastructure in the Southern Coast of Java which could potentially hit by massive tsunami from seismic gap. This paper discusses validation and error estimation of tsunami model created using high resolution geometric data in Sadeng Port. Tsunami model validation uses the height wave of Tsunami Pangandaran 2006 recorded by Tide Gauge of Sadeng. Tsunami model will be used to accommodate the tsunami numerical modeling involves the parameters of earthquake-tsunami which is derived from the seismic gap. The validation results using t-test (student) shows that the height of the tsunami modeling results and observation in Tide Gauge of Sadeng are considered statistically equal at 95% confidence level and the value of the RMSE and NRMSE are 0.428 m and 22.12%, while the differences of tsunami wave travel time is 12 minutes.

Effects of the 26 December 2004 Indian Ocean Tsunami in the Republic of Seychelles

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jackson, L. E.; Barrie, J. V.; Forbes, D. L.; Shaw, J.; Manson, G. K.; Schmidt, M.

2005-12-01

The Dec. 26, 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami impacted Mahé and Praslin islands as a sequence of waves at intervals of tens of minutes to hours. The first tsunami wave struck at low tide, but others occurred through several tidal cycles, so that some subsequent waves arrived at high tide. The first indication of the tsunami on the Mahé tide gauge (sampling interval 4 minutes) was a rise in water level to lower than higher high water at large tides between 08:08 and 08:12 UTC(between 12:08 and 12:12 local time). This was followed by a maximum withdrawal of water in all areas. This level was not recorded by the tide gauge at Mahé, because the stilling well went dry, but evidence from observers indicates that it dropped as much as 4 m below mean sea level. The subsequent highest water levels, highest run-ups, and maximum distances inland that tsunami flooding reached were in coastal lowlands generally facing east toward the source of the tsunami. The highest flood levels on Mahé ranged from ~1.6 m to >4.4 m above mean sea level. On Praslin, they ranged from ~1.8 m to 3.6 m. The shallow (<200 m) shelf platform surrounding the granitic islands played an important role in determining the tsunami wave direction and amplitude at the shoreline. The shoaling waves were refracted, causing them to approach the islands from various directions, and amplified so as to cause higher run-up in specific coastal embayments. Consequently, tsunami inundation and damage were not confined to east-facing shores. Run-up and damage were locally as severe along shores of Mahé and Praslin facing away from the source of the tsunami. Some observers on the west sides of both islands reported water approaching from two directions (northwest and southeast). Furthermore, the timing of maximum inundation varied around the archipelago as tsunami waves arrived at different times in the tidal cycle: the maximum inundation at Anse-à-la-Mouche (on the west side of Mahé) occurred about 4 hours after the initial tsunami wave reached the archipelago, whereas the highest water level in the city of Victoria (on the northeast side of Mahé) occurred about 16 hours after the first arrival (but with much lower wave energy). Damage to public works was greatest in the Victoria area. Lateral spread failures developed in artificial fills forming the fishing port. Liquefaction was induced in these fills by cyclic inundation, saturation and rapid draw-down. Washouts occurred on two sections of highway causeway crossing reclaimed land south of Victoria due to the rapid drainage of tsunami floodwaters. Similar erosion caused structural failure of hotel buildings on Praslin. Elsewhere, the greatest damage was coincident with preexisting modification of the coast by development including: removal of natural beach berms, construction of hotel structures adjacent to the high-water mark or seaward over the beach, and placement of roads immediately adjacent to beaches. The damaging effects of the tsunami were confined to the granitic islands of Seychelles archipelago. The lack of impact on the atolls is due to the deep water surrounding them: this resulted in minimal shoaling and amplification of the long wavelength and low-amplitude tsunami waves.

Incorporation of experimentally derived friction laws in numerical simulations of earthquake generated tsunamis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Murphy, Shane; Spagnuolo, Elena; Lorito, Stefano; Di Toro, Giulio; Scala, Antonio; Festa, Gaetano; Nielsen, Stefan; Piatanesi, Alessio; Romano, Fabrizio; Aretusini, Stefano

2016-04-01

Seismological, tsunami and geodetic observations have shown that subduction zones are complex systems where the properties of earthquake rupture vary with depth. For example nucleation and high frequency radiation generally occur at depth but low frequency radiation and large tsunami-genic slip appear to occur in the shallow crustal depth. Numerical simulations used to describe these features predominantly use standardised theoretical equations or experimental observations often assuming that their validity extends to all slip-rates, lithologies and tectonic environments. However recent rotary-shear experiments performed on a range of diverse materials and experimental conditions highlighted the large variability of the evolution of friction during slipping pointing to a more complex relationship between material type, slip rate and normal stress. Simulating dynamic rupture using a 2D spectral element methodology on a Tohoku like fault, we apply experimentally derived friction laws (i.e. thermal slip distance friction law, Di Toro et al. 2011) Choice of parameters for the friction law are based on expected material type (e.g. cohesive and non-cohesive clay rich material representative of an accretionary wedge), the normal stress which is controlled by the interaction between the regional stress field and the fault geometry. The shear stress distribution on the fault plane is fractal with the yield stress dependent on the static coefficient of friction and the normal stress, parameters that are dependent on the material type and geometry. We use metrics such as the slip distribution, ground motion and fracture energy to explore the effect of frictional behaviour, fault geometry and stress perturbations and its potential role in tsunami generation. Preliminary results will be presented. This research is funded by the European Union's Seventh Framework Programme (FP7/2007-2013) under grant agreement n° 603839 (Project ASTARTE - Assessment, Strategy and Risk Reduction for Tsunamis in Europe) and by the ERC CoG NOFEAR project 614705

Inverse and Forward Modeling of The 2014 Iquique Earthquake with Run-up Data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fuentes, M.

2015-12-01

The April 1, 2014 Mw 8.2 Iquique earthquake excited a moderate tsunami which turned on the national alert of tsunami threat. This earthquake was located in the well-known seismic gap in northern Chile which had a high seismic potential (~ Mw 9.0) after the two main large historic events of 1868 and 1877. Nonetheless, studies of the seismic source performed with seismic data inversions suggest that the event exhibited a main patch located around 19.8° S at 40 km of depth with a seismic moment equivalent to Mw = 8.2. Thus, a large seismic deficit remains in the gap being capable to release an event of Mw = 8.8-8.9. To understand the importance of the tsunami threat in this zone, a seismic source modeling of the Iquique Earthquake is performed. A new approach based on stochastic k2 seismic sources is presented. A set of those sources is generated and for each one, a full numerical tsunami model is performed in order to obtain the run-up heights along the coastline. The results are compared with the available field run-up measurements and with the tide gauges that registered the signal. The comparison is not uniform; it penalizes more when the discrepancies are larger close to the peak run-up location. This criterion allows to identify the best seismic source from the set of scenarios that explains better the observations from a statistical point of view. By the other hand, a L2 norm minimization is used to invert the seismic source by comparing the peak nearshore tsunami amplitude (PNTA) with the run-up observations. This method searches in a space of solutions the best seismic configuration by retrieving the Green's function coefficients in order to explain the field measurements. The results obtained confirm that a concentrated down-dip patch slip adequately models the run-up data.

Correlation Equation of Fault Size, Moment Magnitude, and Height of Tsunami Case Study: Historical Tsunami Database in Sulawesi

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Julius, Musa, Admiral; Pribadi, Sugeng; Muzli, Muzli

2018-03-01

Sulawesi, one of the biggest island in Indonesia, located on the convergence of two macro plate that is Eurasia and Pacific. NOAA and Novosibirsk Tsunami Laboratory show more than 20 tsunami data recorded in Sulawesi since 1820. Based on this data, determination of correlation between tsunami and earthquake parameter need to be done to proved all event in the past. Complete data of magnitudes, fault sizes and tsunami heights on this study sourced from NOAA and Novosibirsk Tsunami database, completed with Pacific Tsunami Warning Center (PTWC) catalog. This study aims to find correlation between moment magnitude, fault size and tsunami height by simple regression. The step of this research are data collecting, processing, and regression analysis. Result shows moment magnitude, fault size and tsunami heights strongly correlated. This analysis is enough to proved the accuracy of historical tsunami database in Sulawesi on NOAA, Novosibirsk Tsunami Laboratory and PTWC.

Multiple Solutions of Real-time Tsunami Forecasting Using Short-term Inundation Forecasting for Tsunamis Tool

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gica, E.

2016-12-01

The Short-term Inundation Forecasting for Tsunamis (SIFT) tool, developed by NOAA Center for Tsunami Research (NCTR) at the Pacific Marine Environmental Laboratory (PMEL), is used in forecast operations at the Tsunami Warning Centers in Alaska and Hawaii. The SIFT tool relies on a pre-computed tsunami propagation database, real-time DART buoy data, and an inversion algorithm to define the tsunami source. The tsunami propagation database is composed of 50×100km unit sources, simulated basin-wide for at least 24 hours. Different combinations of unit sources, DART buoys, and length of real-time DART buoy data can generate a wide range of results within the defined tsunami source. For an inexperienced SIFT user, the primary challenge is to determine which solution, among multiple solutions for a single tsunami event, would provide the best forecast in real time. This study investigates how the use of different tsunami sources affects simulated tsunamis at tide gauge locations. Using the tide gauge at Hilo, Hawaii, a total of 50 possible solutions for the 2011 Tohoku tsunami are considered. Maximum tsunami wave amplitude and root mean square error results are used to compare tide gauge data and the simulated tsunami time series. Results of this study will facilitate SIFT users' efforts to determine if the simulated tide gauge tsunami time series from a specific tsunami source solution would be within the range of possible solutions. This study will serve as the basis for investigating more historical tsunami events and tide gauge locations.

Palaeotsunamis and tsunami hazards in the Eastern Mediterranean.

PubMed

England, Philip; Howell, Andrew; Jackson, James; Synolakis, Costas

2015-10-28

The dominant uncertainties in assessing tsunami hazard in the Eastern Mediterranean are attached to the location of the sources. Reliable historical reports exist for five tsunamis associated with earthquakes at the Hellenic plate boundary, including two that caused widespread devastation. Because most of the relative motion across this boundary is aseismic, however, the modern record of seismicity provides little or no information about the faults that are likely to generate such earthquakes. Independent geological and geophysical observations of two large historical to prehistorical earthquakes, in Crete and Rhodes, lead to a coherent framework in which large to great earthquakes occurred not on the subduction boundary, but on reverse faults within the overlying crust. We apply this framework to the less complete evidence from the remainder of the Hellenic plate boundary zone, identifying candidate sources for future tsunamigenic earthquakes. Each such source poses a significant hazard to the North African coast of the Eastern Mediterranean. Because modern rates of seismicity are irrelevant to slip on the tsunamigenic faults, and because historical and geological data are too sparse, there is no reliable basis for a probabilistic assessment of this hazard, and a precautionary approach seems advisable. © 2015 The Author(s).

Local Public Health System Response to the Tsunami Threat in Coastal California following the Tōhoku Earthquake.

PubMed

Hunter, Jennifer C; Crawley, Adam W; Petrie, Michael; Yang, Jane E; Aragón, Tomás J

2012-07-16

Background On Friday March 11, 2011 a 9.0 magnitude earthquake triggered a tsunami off the eastern coast of Japan, resulting in thousands of lives lost and billions of dollars in damage around the Pacific Rim. The tsunami first reached the California coast on Friday, March 11th, causing more than $70 million in damage and at least one death. While the tsunami's impact on California pales in comparison to the destruction caused in Japan and other areas of the Pacific, the event tested emergency responders' ability to rapidly communicate and coordinate a response to a potential threat. Methods To evaluate the local public health system emergency response to the tsunami threat in California, we surveyed all local public health, emergency medical services (EMS), and emergency management agencies in coastal or floodplain counties about several domains related to the tsunami threat in California, including: (1) the extent to which their community was affected by the tsunami, (2) when and how they received notification of the event, (3) which public health response activities were carried out to address the tsunami threat in their community, and (4) which organizations contributed to the response. Public health activities were characterized using the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) Public Health Preparedness Capabilities (PHEP) framework. Findings The tsunami's impact on coastal communities in California ranged widely, both in terms of the economic consequences and the response activities. Based on estimates from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), ten jurisdictions in California reported tsunami-related damage, which ranged from $15,000 to $35 million. Respondents first became aware of the tsunami threat in California between the hours of 10:00pm Pacific Standard Time (PST) on Thursday March 10th and 2:00pm PST on Friday March 11th, a range of 16 hours, with notification occurring through both formal and informal channels. In response to this threat, the activities most commonly reported by the local government agencies included in this study were: emergency public information and warning, emergency operations coordination, and inter-organizational information sharing, which were reported by 86%, 75%, and 65% of all respondents, respectively. When looking at the distribution of responsibility, emergency management agencies were the most likely to report assuming a lead role in these common activities as well as those related to evacuation and community recovery. While activated less frequently, public health agencies carried out emergency response functions related to surveillance and epidemiology, environmental health, and mental health/psychological support. Both local public health and EMS agencies took part in mass care and medical material management activities. A large network of organizations contributed to response activities, with emergency management, law enforcement, fire, public health, public works, EMS, and media cited by more than half of respondents. Conclusions In response to the tsunami threat in California, we found that emergency management agencies assumed a lead role in the local response efforts. While public health and medical agencies played a supporting role in the response, they uniquely contributed to a number of specific activities. If the response to the recent tsunami is any indication, these support activities can be anticipated in planning for future events with similar characteristics to the tsunami threat. Additionally, we found that many respondents first learned of the tsunami through the media, rather than through rapid notification systems, which suggests that government agencies must continue to develop and maintain the ability to rapidly aggregate and analyze information in order to provide accurate assessments and guidance to a potentially well-informed public. Hunter JC, Crawley AW, Petrie M, Yang JE, Aragón TJ. Local Public Health System Response to the Tsunami Threat in Coastal California following the Tōhoku Earthquake. PLoS Currents Disasters. 2012 Jul 16.

Quantification of uncertainties in the tsunami hazard for Cascadia using statistical emulation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Guillas, S.; Day, S. J.; Joakim, B.

2016-12-01

We present new high resolution tsunami wave propagation and coastal inundation for the Cascadia region in the Pacific Northwest. The coseismic representation in this analysis is novel, and more realistic than in previous studies, as we jointly parametrize multiple aspects of the seabed deformation. Due to the large computational cost of such simulators, statistical emulation is required in order to carry out uncertainty quantification tasks, as emulators efficiently approximate simulators. The emulator replaces the tsunami model VOLNA by a fast surrogate, so we are able to efficiently propagate uncertainties from the source characteristics to wave heights, in order to probabilistically assess tsunami hazard for Cascadia. We employ a new method for the design of the computer experiments in order to reduce the number of runs while maintaining good approximations properties of the emulator. Out of the initial nine parameters, mostly describing the geometry and time variation of the seabed deformation, we drop two parameters since these turn out to not have an influence on the resulting tsunami waves at the coast. We model the impact of another parameter linearly as its influence on the wave heights is identified as linear. We combine this screening approach with the sequential design algorithm MICE (Mutual Information for Computer Experiments), that adaptively selects the input values at which to run the computer simulator, in order to maximize the expected information gain (mutual information) over the input space. As a result, the emulation is made possible and accurate. Starting from distributions of the source parameters that encapsulate geophysical knowledge of the possible source characteristics, we derive distributions of the tsunami wave heights along the coastline.

The Great East-Japan Earthquake and devastating tsunami: an update and lessons from the past Great Earthquakes in Japan since 1923.

PubMed

Ishigaki, Akemi; Higashi, Hikari; Sakamoto, Takako; Shibahara, Shigeki

2013-04-01

Japan has a long history of fighting against great earthquakes that cause structural damage/collapses, fires and/or tsunami. On March 11, 2011 at 14:46 (Friday), the Great East-Japan Earthquake (magnitude 9.0) attacked the Tohoku region (northeastern Japan), which includes Sendai City. The earthquake generated a devastating tsunami, leading to unprecedented disasters (~18,500 victims) in coastal areas of Iwate, Miyagi and Fukushima prefectures, despite the fact that people living in the Tohoku region are well trained for tsunami-evacuation procedures, with the mindset of "Tsunami, ten-den-ko." This code means that each person should evacuate individually upon an earthquake. Sharing this rule, children and parents can escape separately from schools, houses or workplaces, without worrying about each other. The concept of ten-den-ko (individual evacuation) is helpful for people living in coastal areas of earthquake-prone zones around the world. It is also important to construct safe evacuation centers, because the March 11(th) tsunami killed people who had evacuated to evacuation sites. We summarize the current conditions of people living in the disaster-stricken areas, including the consequences of the Fukushima nuclear accident. We also describe the disaster responses as the publisher of the Tohoku Journal of Experimental Medicine (TJEM), located in Sendai, with online support from Tokyo. In 1923, the Great Kanto Earthquake (magnitude 7.9) evoked a massive fire that destroyed large areas of Tokyo (~105,000 victims), including the print company for TJEM, but the Wistar Institute printed three TJEM issues in 1923 in Philadelphia. Mutual aid relationships should be established between distant cities to survive future disasters.

Seismogeodesy and Rapid Earthquake and Tsunami Source Assessment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Melgar Moctezuma, Diego

This dissertation presents an optimal combination algorithm for strong motion seismograms and regional high rate GPS recordings. This seismogeodetic solution produces estimates of ground motion that recover the whole seismic spectrum, from the permanent deformation to the Nyquist frequency of the accelerometer. This algorithm will be demonstrated and evaluated through outdoor shake table tests and recordings of large earthquakes, notably the 2010 Mw 7.2 El Mayor-Cucapah earthquake and the 2011 Mw 9.0 Tohoku-oki events. This dissertations will also show that strong motion velocity and displacement data obtained from the seismogeodetic solution can be instrumental to quickly determine basic parameters of the earthquake source. We will show how GPS and seismogeodetic data can produce rapid estimates of centroid moment tensors, static slip inversions, and most importantly, kinematic slip inversions. Throughout the dissertation special emphasis will be placed on how to compute these source models with minimal interaction from a network operator. Finally we will show that the incorporation of off-shore data such as ocean-bottom pressure and RTK-GPS buoys can better-constrain the shallow slip of large subduction events. We will demonstrate through numerical simulations of tsunami propagation that the earthquake sources derived from the seismogeodetic and ocean-based sensors is detailed enough to provide a timely and accurate assessment of expected tsunami intensity immediately following a large earthquake.

Tsunami.gov: NOAA's Tsunami Information Portal

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shiro, B.; Carrick, J.; Hellman, S. B.; Bernard, M.; Dildine, W. P.

2014-12-01

We present the new Tsunami.gov website, which delivers a single authoritative source of tsunami information for the public and emergency management communities. The site efficiently merges information from NOAA's Tsunami Warning Centers (TWC's) by way of a comprehensive XML feed called Tsunami Event XML (TEX). The resulting unified view allows users to quickly see the latest tsunami alert status in geographic context without having to understand complex TWC areas of responsibility. The new site provides for the creation of a wide range of products beyond the traditional ASCII-based tsunami messages. The publication of modern formats such as Common Alerting Protocol (CAP) can drive geographically aware emergency alert systems like FEMA's Integrated Public Alert and Warning System (IPAWS). Supported are other popular information delivery systems, including email, text messaging, and social media updates. The Tsunami.gov portal allows NOAA staff to easily edit content and provides the facility for users to customize their viewing experience. In addition to access by the public, emergency managers and government officials may be offered the capability to log into the portal for special access rights to decision-making and administrative resources relevant to their respective tsunami warning systems. The site follows modern HTML5 responsive design practices for optimized use on mobile as well as non-mobile platforms. It meets all federal security and accessibility standards. Moving forward, we hope to expand Tsunami.gov to encompass tsunami-related content currently offered on separate websites, including the NOAA Tsunami Website, National Tsunami Hazard Mitigation Program, NOAA Center for Tsunami Research, National Geophysical Data Center's Tsunami Database, and National Data Buoy Center's DART Program. This project is part of the larger Tsunami Information Technology Modernization Project, which is consolidating the software architectures of NOAA's existing TWC's into a single system. We welcome your feedback to help Tsunami.gov become an effective public resource for tsunami information and a medium to enable better global tsunami warning coordination.

Introduction to "Tsunamis in the Pacific Ocean: 2011-2012"

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rabinovich, Alexander B.; Borrero, Jose C.; Fritz, Hermann M.

2014-12-01

With this volume of the Pure and Applied Geophysics (PAGEOPH) topical issue "Tsunamis in the Pacific Ocean: 2011-2012", we are pleased to present 21 new papers discussing tsunami events occurring in this two-year span. Owing to the profound impact resulting from the unique crossover of a natural and nuclear disaster, research into the 11 March 2011 Tohoku, Japan earthquake and tsunami continues; here we present 12 papers related to this event. Three papers report on detailed field survey results and updated analyses of the wave dynamics based on these surveys. Two papers explore the effects of the Tohoku tsunami on the coast of Russia. Three papers discuss the tsunami source mechanism, and four papers deal with tsunami hydrodynamics in the far field or over the wider Pacific basin. In addition, a series of five papers presents studies of four new tsunami and earthquake events occurring over this time period. This includes tsunamis in El Salvador, the Philippines, Japan and the west coast of British Columbia, Canada. Finally, we present four new papers on tsunami science, including discussions on tsunami event duration, tsunami wave amplitude, tsunami energy and tsunami recurrence.

Tsunami forecast by joint inversion of real-time tsunami waveforms and seismic of GPS data: application to the Tohoku 2011 tsunami

USGS Publications Warehouse

Yong, Wei; Newman, Andrew V.; Hayes, Gavin P.; Titov, Vasily V.; Tang, Liujuan

2014-01-01

Correctly characterizing tsunami source generation is the most critical component of modern tsunami forecasting. Although difficult to quantify directly, a tsunami source can be modeled via different methods using a variety of measurements from deep-ocean tsunameters, seismometers, GPS, and other advanced instruments, some of which in or near real time. Here we assess the performance of different source models for the destructive 11 March 2011 Japan tsunami using model–data comparison for the generation, propagation, and inundation in the near field of Japan. This comparative study of tsunami source models addresses the advantages and limitations of different real-time measurements with potential use in early tsunami warning in the near and far field. The study highlights the critical role of deep-ocean tsunami measurements and rapid validation of the approximate tsunami source for high-quality forecasting. We show that these tsunami measurements are compatible with other real-time geodetic data, and may provide more insightful understanding of tsunami generation from earthquakes, as well as from nonseismic processes such as submarine landslide failures.

Hazard potential of volcanic flank collapses raised by new megatsunami evidence

PubMed Central

Ramalho, Ricardo S.; Winckler, Gisela; Madeira, José; Helffrich, George R.; Hipólito, Ana; Quartau, Rui; Adena, Katherine; Schaefer, Joerg M.

2015-01-01

Large-scale gravitational flank collapses of steep volcanic islands are hypothetically capable of triggering megatsunamis with highly catastrophic effects. Yet, evidence for the generation and impact of collapse-triggered megatsunamis and their high run-ups remains scarce or is highly controversial. Therefore, doubts remain on whether island flank failures truly generate enough volume flux to trigger giant tsunamis, leading to diverging opinions concerning the real hazard potential of such collapses. We show that one of the most prominent oceanic volcanoes on Earth—Fogo, in the Cape Verde Islands—catastrophically collapsed and triggered a megatsunami with devastating effects ~73,000 years ago. Our deductions are based on the recent discovery and cosmogenic 3He dating of tsunamigenic deposits found on nearby Santiago Island, which attest to the impact of this giant tsunami and document wave run-up heights exceeding 270 m. The evidence reported here implies that Fogo’s flank failure involved at least one fast and voluminous event that led to a giant tsunami, in contrast to what has been suggested before. Our observations therefore further demonstrate that flank collapses may indeed catastrophically happen and are capable of triggering tsunamis of enormous height and energy, adding to their hazard potential. PMID:26601287

Three-dimensional splay fault geometry and implications for tsunami generation.

PubMed

Moore, G F; Bangs, N L; Taira, A; Kuramoto, S; Pangborn, E; Tobin, H J

2007-11-16

Megasplay faults, very long thrust faults that rise from the subduction plate boundary megathrust and intersect the sea floor at the landward edge of the accretionary prism, are thought to play a role in tsunami genesis. We imaged a megasplay thrust system along the Nankai Trough in three dimensions, which allowed us to map the splay fault geometry and its lateral continuity. The megasplay is continuous from the main plate interface fault upwards to the sea floor, where it cuts older thrust slices of the frontal accretionary prism. The thrust geometry and evidence of large-scale slumping of surficial sediments show that the fault is active and that the activity has evolved toward the landward direction with time, contrary to the usual seaward progression of accretionary thrusts. The megasplay fault has progressively steepened, substantially increasing the potential for vertical uplift of the sea floor with slip. We conclude that slip on the megasplay fault most likely contributed to generating devastating historic tsunamis, such as the 1944 moment magnitude 8.1 Tonankai event, and it is this geometry that makes this margin and others like it particularly prone to tsunami genesis.

Field Survey of the 1945 Makran and 2004 Indian Ocean Tsunamis in Baluchistan, Iran

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Okal, Emile A.; Fritz, Hermann M.; Hamzeh, Mohammad Ali; Ghasemzadeh, Javad

2015-12-01

We report the result of a 2010 survey of the effects on the Iranian coastline of the tsunami which followed the earthquake of 27 November 1945 ( M 0 = 2.8 × 1028 dyn cm; M w = 8.2), the only large event recorded along the Makran subduction zone since the onset of instrumental seismology. Based on the interview of elderly survivors of the event, we obtained a database of nine values of run-up or splash amplitudes on a segment of shore extending 280 km from Souraf in the West to Pasabandar near the Pakistani border, and ranging in vertical amplitude from 2.3 to 13.7 m. Witness reports are consistent with a significant delay (estimated at ~2.5 h) of the tsunami waves, suggesting that they were generated by an ancillary phenomenon, such as a landslide triggered by the earthquake. None of our witnesses bore ancestral memory of comparable events in the past, suggesting that reported predecessors to the 1945 earthquake may have been smaller in size. The survey also allowed the compilation of previously unreported data concerning the effects of the 2004 Sumatra-Andaman tsunami.

Large submarine landslide discovered on the outer shelf and slope of the Great Barrier Reef: a local mechanism capable of generating tsunamis along the northeast Australian coastline

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

George, N.; Webster, J. M.; Beaman, R. J.; Abbey, E. A.; Davies, P. J.

2010-12-01

We have discovered a large, submarine landslide on the shelf edge of the central Great Barrier Reef, Australia, 10 km from the modern reef. Due to the large size and shallow emplacement depth of the “Viper” slide deposit, it has significantly influenced the geomorphology of the continental shelf and upper slope, allowed the mass movement of large volumes of coral reef limestones and unconsolidated sediments from the shelf edge to the upper slope and likely caused a tsunami capable of reaching the Australian coastline. In this presentation we analyse high-resolution multibeam, seismic and dredge data collected on the RV Southern Survey (SS07), investigate the nature of the slide scar and deposit and discuss the origin and tsunamigenic potential of this event. The Great Barrier Reef (GBR), a World Heritage Area, has been the focus of a wide body of research aiming to understand the development of this unique, diverse and large coral reef system. This study is the first to document a landslide on the shelf edge of the GBR. Submarine landslides have been known to dramatically change ocean topography, destroy underwater infrastructure and cause devastating tsunamis. The systematic study of this landslide has allowed detailed classification of surface and subsurface features to gain an understanding of the mechanics and volume of the mass movement. In addition, samples taken from the slide were classified and dated. The results, revealed a debris avalanche on the shelf edge, 7 kms wide and 6 kms from head to toe, at depths between 70 and 230 m. Three adjacent, successive, landslides occurred almost simultaneously creating a total movement of 5.9x105 m3 of material. Limestone rock and coral reef structures from the shelf edge were transported and deposited onto the finer sediment of the upper slope. A progression of larger blocks of sizes up to 16,300 m2 and 17 m high, to fine sediment the farther away from the escarpments is apparent. Dating of coralline algal-dominated limestones dredged from 163 m below present sea level from the center and top of the landslide debris showed that the landslide occurred at least 15,000 years ago. The shape of the landslide deposit, the distribution of debris as well as the distance the slide traveled suggest a submarine event that would have happened at an earlier date during a sea level high stand. No other mass movement has occurred in the area since. Calculations using the Ward and Day (2003) formula based on the deposit thickness and area suggest that the landslide would have created a tsunami with a run up of 1 m on the northeast Australian coastline. Therefore, in addition to the more regional subduction-driven tsunamis generated in the Pacific (e.g., 2007 Solomon Islands event) our discovery highlights an important new local mechanism - the catastrophic collapse of the GBR shelf edge - that can (1) drastically alter the morphology of the margin and (2) generate tsunamis capable of impacting the coastline.

A New, Continuous 5400 Yr-long Paleotsunami Record from Lake Huelde, Chiloe Island, South Central Chile.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kempf, P.; Moernaut, J.; Vandoorne, W.; Van Daele, M. E.; Pino, M.; Urrutia, R.; De Batist, M. A. O.

2014-12-01

After the last decade of extreme tsunami events with catastrophic damage to infrastructure and a horrendous amount of casualties, it is clear that more and better paleotsunami records are needed to improve our understanding of the recurrence intervals and intensities of large-scale tsunamis. Coastal lakes (e.g. Bradley Lake, Cascadia; Kelsey et al., 2005) have the potential to contain long and continuous sedimentary records, which is an important asset in view of the centennial- to millennial-scale recurrence times of great tsunami-triggering earthquakes. Lake Huelde on Chiloé Island (42.5°S), Chile, is a coastal lake located in the middle of the Valdivia segment, which is known for having produced the strongest ever instrumentally recorded earthquake in 1960 AD (MW: 9.5), and other large earthquakes prior to that: i.e. 1837 AD, 1737 AD (no report of a tsunami) and 1575 AD (Lomnitz, 1970, 2004, Cisternas et al., 2005). We present a new 5400 yr-long paleotsunami record with a Bayesian age-depth model based on 23 radiocarbon dates that exceeds all previous paleotsunami records from the Valdivia segment, both in terms of length and of continuity. 18 events are described and a semi-quantitative measure of the event intensity at the study area is given, revealing at least two predecessors of the 1960 AD event in the mid to late Holocene that are equal in intensity. The resulting implications from the age-depth model and from the semi-quantitative intensity reconstruction are discussed in this contribution.

Tsunami Forecast Progress Five Years After Indonesian Disaster

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Titov, Vasily V.; Bernard, Eddie N.; Weinstein, Stuart A.; Kanoglu, Utku; Synolakis, Costas E.

2010-05-01

Almost five years after the 26 December 2004 Indian Ocean tragedy, tsunami warnings are finally benefiting from decades of research toward effective model-based forecasts. Since the 2004 tsunami, two seminal advances have been (i) deep-ocean tsunami measurements with tsunameters and (ii) their use in accurately forecasting tsunamis after the tsunami has been generated. Using direct measurements of deep-ocean tsunami heights, assimilated into numerical models for specific locations, greatly improves the real-time forecast accuracy over earthquake-derived magnitude estimates of tsunami impact. Since 2003, this method has been used to forecast tsunamis at specific harbors for different events in the Pacific and Indian Oceans. Recent tsunamis illustrated how this technology is being adopted in global tsunami warning operations. The U.S. forecasting system was used by both research and operations to evaluate the tsunami hazard. Tests demonstrated the effectiveness of operational tsunami forecasting using real-time deep-ocean data assimilated into forecast models. Several examples also showed potential of distributed forecast tools. With IOC and USAID funding, NOAA researchers at PMEL developed the Community Model Interface for Tsunami (ComMIT) tool and distributed it through extensive capacity-building sessions in the Indian Ocean. Over hundred scientists have been trained in tsunami inundation mapping, leading to the first generation of inundation models for many Indian Ocean shorelines. These same inundation models can also be used for real-time tsunami forecasts as was demonstrated during several events. Contact Information Vasily V. Titov, Seattle, Washington, USA, 98115

Sandy signs of a tsunami's onshore depth and speed

USGS Publications Warehouse

Huntington, K.; Bourgeois, J.; Gelfenbaum, G.; Lynett, P.; Jaffe, B.; Yeh, H.; Weiss, R.

2007-01-01

Tsunamis rank among the most devastating and unpredictable natural hazards to affect coastal areas. Just 3 years ago, in December 2004, the Indian Ocean tsunami caused more than 225,000 deaths. Like many extreme events, however, destructive tsunamis strike rarely enough that written records span too little time to quantify tsunami hazard and risk. Tsunami deposits preserved in the geologic record have been used to extend the record of tsunami occurrence but not the magnitude of past events. To quantify tsunami hazard further, we asked the following question: Can ancient deposits also provide guidance on the expectable water depths and speeds for future tsunamis?

Issues of tsunami hazard maps revealed by the 2011 Tohoku tsunami

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sugimoto, M.

2013-12-01

Tsunami scientists are imposed responsibilities of selection for people's tsunami evacuation place after the 2011 Tohoku Tsunami in Japan. A lot of matured people died out of tsunami hazard zone based on tsunami hazard map though students made a miracle by evacuation on their own judgment in Kamaishi city. Tsunami hazard maps were based on numerical model smaller than actual magnitude 9. How can we bridge the gap between hazard map and future disasters? We have to discuss about using tsunami numerical model better enough to contribute tsunami hazard map. How do we have to improve tsunami hazard map? Tsunami hazard map should be revised included possibility of upthrust or downthrust after earthquakes and social information. Ground sank 1.14m below sea level in Ayukawa town, Tohoku. Ministry of Land, Infrastructure, Transport and Tourism's research shows around 10% people know about tsunami hazard map in Japan. However, people know about their evacuation places (buildings) through experienced drills once a year even though most people did not know about tsunami hazard map. We need wider spread of tsunami hazard with contingency of science (See the botom disaster handbook material's URL). California Emergency Management Agency (CEMA) team practically shows one good practice and solution to me. I followed their field trip in Catalina Island, California in Sep 2011. A team members are multidisciplinary specialists: A geologist, a GIS specialist, oceanographers in USC (tsunami numerical modeler) and a private company, a local policeman, a disaster manager, a local authority and so on. They check field based on their own specialties. They conduct an on-the-spot inspection of ambiguous locations between tsunami numerical model and real field conditions today. The data always become older. They pay attention not only to topographical conditions but also to social conditions: vulnerable people, elementary schools and so on. It takes a long time to check such field information, however tsunami hazard map based on numerical model should be this process. Tsunami scientists should not enter into the inhumane business by using tsunami numerical model. It includes accountability to society therefore scientists need scientific ethics and humanitarian attention. Should only tsunami scientist have responsibility for human life? Multidisciplinary approach is essential for mitigation like CEMA. I am taking on hazard map training course for disaster management officers from developing countries in JICA training course. I would like to discuss how to improve tsunami hazard map after the 2011 Tohoku tsunami experience in this presentation. A multidisciplinary exparts team of CEMA's tsunami hazard map

A catastrophic event in Lake Geneva region during the Early Bronze Age?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kremer, Katrina; Yrro, Blé; Marillier, François; Hilbe, Michael; Corboud, Pierre; Rachoud-Schneider, Anne-Marie; Girardclos, Stéphanie

2013-04-01

Similarly to steep oceanic continental margins, lake slopes can collapse, producing large sublacustrine landslides and tsunamis. Lake sediments are excellent natural archives of such mass movements and their study allows the reconstructions of these prehistoric events, such as the 563 AD large tsunami over Lake Geneva (Kremer et al, 2012). In Lake Geneva, more than 100 km of high-resolution seismic reflection profiles reveal the late Holocene sedimentation history. The seismic record shows a succession of five large lens-shaped seismic units (A to I), characterized by transparent/chaotic seismic facies with irregular lower boundaries, and interpreted as mass-movement deposits. These units are interbedded with parallel, continuous and strong amplitude reflections, interpreted as the 'background' lake sediments. The oldest dated mass movement (Unit D) covers a surface of 22 km2 in the deep basin, near the city of Lausanne. This deposit has an estimated minimum volume of 0.18 km3 and thus was very likely tsunamigenic (Kremer et al, 2012). A 12-m-long sediment core confirms the seismic interpretation of the mass movement unit and shows that the uppermost 3 m of Unit D are characterized by deformed hemipelagic sediments topped by a 5 cm thick turbidite. This deposit can be classified as a slump whose scar can be interpreted in the seismic data and visualized by multibeam bathymetry. This slump of Lausanne was likely triggered by an earthquake but a spontaneous slope collapse cannot be excluded (Girardclos et al, 2007). Radiocarbon dating of plant macro-remains reveals that the unit D happened during Early Bronze Age. Three other mass wasting deposits occurred during the same time period and may have been triggered during the same event, either by a single earthquake or by a tsunami generated by the slump of Lausanne. Although the exact trigger mechanism of the all these mass-wasting deposits remains unknown, a tsunami likely generated by this event may have affected the installation of palafittic villages on the shore of Lake Geneva during the Early Bronze Age. References: Girardclos S., Schmidt O.T., Sturm M., Ariztegui D., Pugin A., Anselmetti F.S., 2007, The 1996 AD delta collapse and large turbidite in Lake Brienz, Marine Geology (241), 137-154. Kremer K., Simpson G., Girardclos S., 2012, Giant Lake Geneva tsunami in 563 AD, Nature Geoscience (5), 756-757. This project is financed by the Swiss National Foundation project nr. 200021-121666/1 and the Fondation Ernest Boninchi.

Machine-learning techniques for geochemical discrimination of 2011 Tohoku tsunami deposits

PubMed Central

Kuwatani, Tatsu; Nagata, Kenji; Okada, Masato; Watanabe, Takahiro; Ogawa, Yasumasa; Komai, Takeshi; Tsuchiya, Noriyoshi

2014-01-01

Geochemical discrimination has recently been recognised as a potentially useful proxy for identifying tsunami deposits in addition to classical proxies such as sedimentological and micropalaeontological evidence. However, difficulties remain because it is unclear which elements best discriminate between tsunami and non-tsunami deposits. Herein, we propose a mathematical methodology for the geochemical discrimination of tsunami deposits using machine-learning techniques. The proposed method can determine the appropriate combinations of elements and the precise discrimination plane that best discerns tsunami deposits from non-tsunami deposits in high-dimensional compositional space through the use of data sets of bulk composition that have been categorised as tsunami or non-tsunami sediments. We applied this method to the 2011 Tohoku tsunami and to background marine sedimentary rocks. After an exhaustive search of all 262,144 (= 218) combinations of the 18 analysed elements, we observed several tens of combinations with discrimination rates higher than 99.0%. The analytical results show that elements such as Ca and several heavy-metal elements are important for discriminating tsunami deposits from marine sedimentary rocks. These elements are considered to reflect the formation mechanism and origin of the tsunami deposits. The proposed methodology has the potential to aid in the identification of past tsunamis by using other tsunami proxies. PMID:25399750

Tsunami Casualty Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yeh, H.

2007-12-01

More than 4500 deaths by tsunamis were recorded in the decade of 1990. For example, the 1992 Flores Tsunami in Indonesia took away at least 1712 lives, and more than 2182 people were victimized by the 1998 Papua New Guinea Tsunami. Such staggering death toll has been totally overshadowed by the 2004 Indian Ocean Tsunami that claimed more than 220,000 lives. Unlike hurricanes that are often evaluated by economic losses, death count is the primary measure for tsunami hazard. It is partly because tsunamis kill more people owing to its short lead- time for warning. Although exact death tallies are not available for most of the tsunami events, there exist gender and age discriminations in tsunami casualties. Significant gender difference in the victims of the 2004 Indian Ocean Tsunami was attributed to women's social norms and role behavior, as well as cultural bias toward women's inability to swim. Here we develop a rational casualty model based on humans' limit to withstand the tsunami flows. The application to simple tsunami runup cases demonstrates that biological and physiological disadvantages also make a significant difference in casualty rate. It further demonstrates that the gender and age discriminations in casualties become most pronounced when tsunami is marginally strong and the difference tends to diminish as tsunami strength increases.

One year after the 1 April 2014 Iquique tsunami field survey along the coasts of Chile and Peru

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lagos, Marcelo; Fritz, Hermann M.

2015-04-01

One year ago on the evening of 1 April, 2014 a magnitude Mw 8.2 earthquake occurred off the coast of northern Chile off the coast of Pisagua within a region of historic quiescence termed the northern Chile seismic gap. The ensuing tsunami inundation caused mostly minor damage centered in Iquique and neighbouring stretches of coastline. Fortunately, ancestral knowledge from the past 1868 and 1877 tsunamis in the region along with the recent 2010 Maule tsunami, as well as tsunami education and evacuation exercises prompted most coastal residents to spontaneously evacuate to high ground after the earthquake. There were no tsunami victims; while a handful of fatalities were associated to earthquake induced building collapses and the physical stress of tsunami evacuation. The Arica native local scientist deployed overnight and started the tsunami survey in Iquique on the day after the earthquake. The international scientist joined the local effort from April 6 to 11, 2014. The international tsunami survey team (ITST) interviewed numerous eyewitnesses and documented flow depths, runup heights, inundation distances, sediment deposition, damage patterns, performance of the navigation infrastructure and impact on the natural environment. The ITST covered a 700 km stretch of coastline from the Mejillones Peninsula (23.5° S) north of Antofagasta in Chile up to Vila Vila (18.1° S) in southern Peru. We surveyed 30 locations with differential GPS and laser range finders. The tsunami impact peaked at Caleta Camarones exceeding 5 m in tsunami runup height. A significant variation in tsunami impact was observed along the coastlines of Chile and Peru both at local and regional scales. The tsunami occurred in the evening hours limiting the availability of eyewitness video footages. Observations from the 2014 Chile tsunami are compared against the 1868, 1877 and 2010 Chile tsunamis. Comparing to other similar magnitude events such as the 2007 Pisco tsunami in Peru the 1 April 2014 tsunami could have been significantly larger. The absence of a massive tsunami may mislead residents to believe another similarly minor tsunami may be generated after a potential future earthquake of similar magnitude. This April fool's day event poses significant challenges to community-based education raising tsunami awareness. The team educated residents about tsunami hazards since awareness programs are essential to save lives in locales at risk from near-field tsunamis.

Real-time determination of the worst tsunami scenario based on Earthquake Early Warning

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Furuya, Takashi; Koshimura, Shunichi; Hino, Ryota; Ohta, Yusaku; Inoue, Takuya

2016-04-01

In recent years, real-time tsunami inundation forecasting has been developed with the advances of dense seismic monitoring, GPS Earth observation, offshore tsunami observation networks, and high-performance computing infrastructure (Koshimura et al., 2014). Several uncertainties are involved in tsunami inundation modeling and it is believed that tsunami generation model is one of the great uncertain sources. Uncertain tsunami source model has risk to underestimate tsunami height, extent of inundation zone, and damage. Tsunami source inversion using observed seismic, geodetic and tsunami data is the most effective to avoid underestimation of tsunami, but needs to expect more time to acquire the observed data and this limitation makes difficult to terminate real-time tsunami inundation forecasting within sufficient time. Not waiting for the precise tsunami observation information, but from disaster management point of view, we aim to determine the worst tsunami source scenario, for the use of real-time tsunami inundation forecasting and mapping, using the seismic information of Earthquake Early Warning (EEW) that can be obtained immediately after the event triggered. After an earthquake occurs, JMA's EEW estimates magnitude and hypocenter. With the constraints of earthquake magnitude, hypocenter and scaling law, we determine possible multi tsunami source scenarios and start searching the worst one by the superposition of pre-computed tsunami Green's functions, i.e. time series of tsunami height at offshore points corresponding to 2-dimensional Gaussian unit source, e.g. Tsushima et al., 2014. Scenario analysis of our method consists of following 2 steps. (1) Searching the worst scenario range by calculating 90 scenarios with various strike and fault-position. From maximum tsunami height of 90 scenarios, we determine a narrower strike range which causes high tsunami height in the area of concern. (2) Calculating 900 scenarios that have different strike, dip, length, width, depth and fault-position. Note that strike is limited with the range obtained from 90 scenarios calculation. From 900 scenarios, we determine the worst tsunami scenarios from disaster management point of view, such as the one with shortest travel time and the highest water level. The method was applied to a hypothetical-earthquake, and verified if it can effectively search the worst tsunami source scenario in real-time, to be used as an input of real-time tsunami inundation forecasting.

In Search of the Largest Possible Tsunami: An Example Following the 2011 Japan Tsunami

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Geist, E. L.; Parsons, T.

2012-12-01

Many tsunami hazard assessments focus on estimating the largest possible tsunami: i.e., the worst-case scenario. This is typically performed by examining historic and prehistoric tsunami data or by estimating the largest source that can produce a tsunami. We demonstrate that worst-case assessments derived from tsunami and tsunami-source catalogs are greatly affected by sampling bias. Both tsunami and tsunami sources are well represented by a Pareto distribution. It is intuitive to assume that there is some limiting size (i.e., runup or seismic moment) for which a Pareto distribution is truncated or tapered. Likelihood methods are used to determine whether a limiting size can be determined from existing catalogs. Results from synthetic catalogs indicate that several observations near the limiting size are needed for accurate parameter estimation. Accordingly, the catalog length needed to empirically determine the limiting size is dependent on the difference between the limiting size and the observation threshold, with larger catalog lengths needed for larger limiting-threshold size differences. Most, if not all, tsunami catalogs and regional tsunami source catalogs are of insufficient length to determine the upper bound on tsunami runup. As an example, estimates of the empirical tsunami runup distribution are obtained from the Miyako tide gauge station in Japan, which recorded the 2011 Tohoku-oki tsunami as the largest tsunami among 51 other events. Parameter estimation using a tapered Pareto distribution is made both with and without the Tohoku-oki event. The catalog without the 2011 event appears to have a low limiting tsunami runup. However, this is an artifact of undersampling. Including the 2011 event, the catalog conforms more to a pure Pareto distribution with no confidence in estimating a limiting runup. Estimating the size distribution of regional tsunami sources is subject to the same sampling bias. Physical attenuation mechanisms such as wave breaking likely limit the maximum tsunami runup at a particular site. However, historic and prehistoric data alone cannot determine the upper bound on tsunami runup. Because of problems endemic to sampling Pareto distributions of tsunamis and their sources, we recommend that tsunami hazard assessment be based on a specific design probability of exceedance following a pure Pareto distribution, rather than attempting to determine the worst-case scenario.

Climate Degradation and Extreme Icing Events Constrain Life in Cold-Adapted Mammals.

PubMed

Berger, J; Hartway, C; Gruzdev, A; Johnson, M

2018-01-18

Despite the growth in knowledge about the effects of a warming Arctic on its cold-adapted species, the mechanisms by which these changes affect animal populations remain poorly understood. Increasing temperatures, declining sea ice and altered wind and precipitation patterns all may affect the fitness and abundance of species through multiple direct and indirect pathways. Here we demonstrate previously unknown effects of rain-on-snow (ROS) events, winter precipitation, and ice tidal surges on the Arctic's largest land mammal. Using novel field data across seven years and three Alaskan and Russian sites, we show arrested skeletal growth in juvenile muskoxen resulting from unusually dry winter conditions and gestational ROS events, with the inhibitory effects on growth from ROS events lasting up to three years post-partum. Further, we describe the simultaneous entombment of 52 muskoxen in ice during a Chukchi Sea winter tsunami (ivuniq in Iñupiat), and link rapid freezing to entrapment of Arctic whales and otters. Our results illustrate how once unusual, but increasingly frequent Arctic weather events affect some cold-adapted mammals, and suggest that an understanding of species responses to a changing Arctic can be enhanced by coalescing groundwork, rare events, and insights from local people.

Probabilistic tsunami hazard assessment based on the long-term evaluation of subduction-zone earthquakes along the Sagami Trough, Japan

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hirata, K.; Fujiwara, H.; Nakamura, H.; Osada, M.; Ohsumi, T.; Morikawa, N.; Kawai, S.; Maeda, T.; Matsuyama, H.; Toyama, N.; Kito, T.; Murata, Y.; Saito, R.; Takayama, J.; Akiyama, S.; Korenaga, M.; Abe, Y.; Hashimoto, N.; Hakamata, T.

2017-12-01

For the forthcoming large earthquakes along the Sagami Trough where the Philippine Sea Plate is subducting beneath the northeast Japan arc, the Earthquake Research Committee(ERC) /Headquarters for Earthquake Research Promotion, Japanese government (2014a) assessed that M7 and M8 class earthquakes will occur there and defined the possible extent of the earthquake source areas. They assessed 70% and 0% 5% of the occurrence probability within the next 30 years (from Jan. 1, 2014), respectively, for the M7 and M8 class earthquakes. First, we set possible 10 earthquake source areas(ESAs) and 920 ESAs, respectively, for M8 and M7 class earthquakes. Next, we constructed 125 characterized earthquake fault models (CEFMs) and 938 CEFMs, respectively, for M8 and M7 class earthquakes, based on "tsunami receipt" of ERC (2017) (Kitoh et al., 2016, JpGU). All the CEFMs are allowed to have a large slip area for expression of fault slip heterogeneity. For all the CEFMs, we calculate tsunamis by solving a nonlinear long wave equation, using FDM, including runup calculation, over a nesting grid system with a minimum grid size of 50 meters. Finally, we re-distributed the occurrence probability to all CEFMs (Abe et al., 2014, JpGU) and gathered excess probabilities for variable tsunami heights, calculated from all the CEFMs, at every observation point along Pacific coast to get PTHA. We incorporated aleatory uncertainties inherent in tsunami calculation and earthquake fault slip heterogeneity. We considered two kinds of probabilistic hazard models; one is "Present-time hazard model" under an assumption that the earthquake occurrence basically follows a renewal process based on BPT distribution if the latest faulting time was known. The other is "Long-time averaged hazard model" under an assumption that earthquake occurrence follows a stationary Poisson process. We fixed our viewpoint, for example, on the probability that the tsunami height will exceed 3 meters at coastal points in next 30 years (from Jan. 1, 2014). Present-time hazard model showed relatively high possibility over 0.1% along the Boso Peninsula. Long-time averaged hazard model showed highest possibility over 3% along the Boso Peninsula and relatively high possibility over 0.1 % along wide coastal areas on Pacific side from Kii Peninsula to Fukushima prefecture.

Size Constraints on Late Miocene to Pliocene Submarine Slope Failures along the Colombian Caribbean Subduction Margin as a Basis for Assessing Circum-Caribbean Impact of Future Tsunami Events

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Leslie, S.; Mann, P.

2015-12-01

The Colombian Caribbean margin provides an ideal setting for the formation of large mass transport deposits (MTDs): 1) the Caribbean Plate is slowly subducting at rates of 20 mm/yr with infrequent large thrust earthquakes and a complete lack of subduction events in the 400-year-long historical record; 2) the margin is a broad zone of active faults including a ~50 km-wide accretionary prism and strike-slip faults landward of the prism; 3) the active margin is draped by the Magdalena delta and submarine fan fed by the Magdalena River, the 26th largest in the world; and 4) the margin is over-steepened to slopes of up to 7° from the combination of tectonic activity and rapid rates of deltaic progradation. Using seismic data we have identified three late Miocene-Pliocene MTDs, the largest of which is between 4500 and 6000 km3, comparable in size to the well-studied Storegga slide of Norway. The tsunamigenic potential of future, analog MTD events are modeled using GeoWave tsunami modeling software. The largest and youngest of these MTDs, the Santa Marta slide, is used as an analog to infer the location and input parameters for the tsunami model. The event is modeled as a translational slide ~46 km long and ~37 km wide with the center of the slide located ~57 km W/NW from the mouth of the present day Magdalena River in water depths of 1500 m. The volume for the initial failure is conservatively estimated at ~680 km3 of material. The resulting tsunami wave from such an event has an initial maximum trough amplitude of -65.8 m and a peak amplitude of 19.2 m. The impact of such a tsunami would include: 1) Kingston, Jamaica (population 938K), tsunami height 7.5 m, peak arrival at 60 min.; 2) Santo Domingo, Dominican Republic (population 965K, height 6 m, peak arrival at 80 min.); and 3) Cartagena, Colombia (population 845K, height 21 m, peak arrival at 34 min.). A number of parameters to the model are varied to analyze sensitivity of modeling results to changes in slide depth, angle of failure, slide volume, and slide density.

Anthropogenic influences on the Preservation of Ancient Tsunami Deposits

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Goodman-Tchernov, Beverly

2017-04-01

Deposits and damage on the landscape immediately following a tsunami event are subject to a range of post-depositional alterations driven by natural and anthropogenic processes, ultimately ending in extremely differential preservation that complicates efforts to find and interpret ancient and paleotsunami remains. Along the Israeli Mediterranean coastline, offshore tsunami sediment research has offered a reconstruction of multiple events, but the onshore record has proved challenging due to post-event clean-up, coastal development, and natural erosion. Archaeological excavations in the last half century have also removed a large portion of sediments that might have assisted in the effort. Archival photographs, field descriptions, and newly excavated areas were investigated in light of the offshore and historical evidence for tsunamis. Unique deposits from those records and from newly exposed areas present new information that illustrate circumstances in which a deposit is well-preserved and where it is not. A trend is apparent in which areas which are under heavy use at the time of the event are more likely to be renovated, rebuilt, or otherwise changed post-event; leaving less fingerprint behind, while better preservation of the deposit is present in already neglected or less functioning areas. Also, in some cases field evidence that is seemingly contradictory to the presence of a disaster is, in fact, an acute marker of the event. Worldwide, past tsunami deposit field evidence is a valuable database for better informing estimates and models of potential future events; and therefore such improvements in field identification are important.

Developing Tsunami Evacuation Plans, Maps, And Procedures: Pilot Project in Central America

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Arcos, N. P.; Kong, L. S. L.; Arcas, D.; Aliaga, B.; Coetzee, D.; Leonard, J.

2015-12-01

In the End-to-End tsunami warning chain, once a forecast is provided and a warning alert issued, communities must know what to do and where to go. The 'where to' answer would be reliable and practical community-level tsunami evacuation maps. Following the Exercise Pacific Wave 2011, a questionnaire was sent to the 46 Member States of Pacific Tsunami Warning System (PTWS). The results revealed over 42 percent of Member States lacked tsunami mass coastal evacuation plans. Additionally, a significant gap in mapping was exposed as over 55 percent of Member States lacked tsunami evacuation maps, routes, signs and assembly points. Thereby, a significant portion of countries in the Pacific lack appropriate tsunami planning and mapping for their at-risk coastal communities. While a variety of tools exist to establish tsunami inundation areas, these are inconsistent while a methodology has not been developed to assist countries develop tsunami evacuation maps, plans, and procedures. The International Tsunami Information Center (ITIC) and partners is leading a Pilot Project in Honduras demonstrating that globally standardized tools and methodologies can be applied by a country, with minimal tsunami warning and mitigation resources, towards the determination of tsunami inundation areas and subsequently community-owned tsunami evacuation maps and plans for at-risk communities. The Pilot involves a 1- to 2-year long process centered on a series of linked tsunami training workshops on: evacuation planning, evacuation map development, inundation modeling and map creation, tsunami warning & emergency response Standard Operating Procedures (SOPs), and conducting tsunami exercises (including evacuation). The Pilot's completion is capped with a UNESCO/IOC document so that other countries can replicate the process in their tsunami-prone communities.

Response to the 2011 Great East Japan Earthquake and Tsunami disaster.

PubMed

Koshimura, Shunichi; Shuto, Nobuo

2015-10-28

We revisited the lessons of the 2011 Great East Japan Earthquake Tsunami disaster specifically on the response and impact, and discussed the paradigm shift of Japan's tsunami disaster management policies and the perspectives for reconstruction. Revisiting the modern histories of Tohoku tsunami disasters and pre-2011 tsunami countermeasures, we clarified how Japan's coastal communities have prepared for tsunamis. The discussion mainly focuses on structural measures such as seawalls and breakwaters and non-structural measures of hazard map and evacuation. The responses to the 2011 event are discussed specifically on the tsunami warning system and efforts to identify the tsunami impacts. The nation-wide post-tsunami survey results shed light on the mechanisms of structural destruction, tsunami loads and structural vulnerability to inform structural rehabilitation measures and land-use planning. Remarkable paradigm shifts in designing coastal protection and disaster mitigation measures were introduced, leading with a new concept of potential tsunami levels: Prevention (Level 1) and Mitigation (Level 2) levels according to the level of 'protection'. The seawall is designed with reference to Level 1 tsunami scenario, while comprehensive disaster management measures should refer to Level 2 tsunami for protection of human lives and reducing potential losses and damage. Throughout the case study in Sendai city, the proposed reconstruction plan was evaluated from the tsunami engineering point of view to discuss how the post 2011 paradigm was implemented in coastal communities for future disaster mitigation. The analysis revealed that Sendai city's multiple protection measures for Level 2 tsunami will contribute to a substantial reduction of the tsunami inundation zone and potential losses, combined with an effective tsunami evacuation plan. © 2015 The Author(s).

Earthquake and Tsunami booklet based on two Indonesia earthquakes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hayashi, Y.; Aci, M.

2014-12-01

Many destructive earthquakes occurred during the last decade in Indonesia. These experiences are very important precepts for the world people who live in earthquake and tsunami countries. We are collecting the testimonies of tsunami survivors to clarify successful evacuation process and to make clear the characteristic physical behaviors of tsunami near coast. We research 2 tsunami events, 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami and 2010 Mentawai slow earthquake tsunami. Many video and photographs were taken by people at some places in 2004 Indian ocean tsunami disaster; nevertheless these were few restricted points. We didn't know the tsunami behavior in another place. In this study, we tried to collect extensive information about tsunami behavior not only in many places but also wide time range after the strong shake. In Mentawai case, the earthquake occurred in night, so there are no impressive photos. To collect detail information about evacuation process from tsunamis, we contrived the interview method. This method contains making pictures of tsunami experience from the scene of victims' stories. In 2004 Aceh case, all survivors didn't know tsunami phenomena. Because there were no big earthquakes with tsunami for one hundred years in Sumatra region, public people had no knowledge about tsunami. This situation was highly improved in 2010 Mentawai case. TV programs and NGO or governmental public education programs about tsunami evacuation are widespread in Indonesia. Many people know about fundamental knowledge of earthquake and tsunami disasters. We made drill book based on victim's stories and painted impressive scene of 2 events. We used the drill book in disaster education event in school committee of west Java. About 80 % students and teachers evaluated that the contents of the drill book are useful for correct understanding.