Critical analysis of documentary sources for Historical Climatology of Northern Portugal (17th-19th centuries)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Amorim, Inês; Sousa Silva, Luís; Garcia, João Carlos

2017-04-01

Critical analysis of documentary sources for Historical Climatology of Northern Portugal (17th-19th centuries) Inês Amorim CITCEM, Department of History, Political and International Studies, U. of Porto, Portugal. Luís Sousa Silva CITCEM, PhD Fellowship - FCT. João Carlos Garcia CIUHCT, Geography Department, U. of Porto, Portugal. The first major national project on Historical Climatology in Portugal, called "KLIMHIST: Reconstruction and model simulations of past climate in Portugal using documentary and early instrumental sources (17th-19th centuries)", ended in September 2015, coordinated by Maria João Alcoforado. This project began in March 2012 and counted on an interdisciplinary team of researchers from four Portuguese institutions (Centre of Geographical Studies, University of Trás-os-Montes and Alto Douro, University of Porto, and University of Évora), from different fields of knowledge (Geography, History, Biology, Climatology and Meteorology). The team networked and collaborated with other international research groups on Climate Change and Historical Climatology, resulting in several publications. This project aimed to reconstruct thermal and rainfall patterns in Portugal between the 17th and 19th centuries, as well as identify the main hydrometeorological extremes that occurred over that period. The basic methodology consisted in combining information from different types of anthropogenic sources (descriptive and instrumental) and natural sources (tree rings and geothermal holes), so as to develop climate change models of the past. The data collected were stored in a digital database, which can be searched by source, date, location and type of event. This database, which will be made publically available soon, contains about 3500 weather/climate-related records, which have begun to be studied, processed and published. Following this seminal project, other initiatives have taken place in Portugal in the area of Historical Climatology, namely a PhD project, still in progress, which also aims at the study of climatic variations and extreme hydrometeorological events in Northern Portugal, in the period prior to the creation of the organized network of meteorological stations and the systematization of instrumental observations (19th century). Therefore, in this communication we intend to present some of the documentary sources (private and institutional) used in the course of these projects. We will analyze the potentialities and limitations of a wide range of documentary sources, such as annals, memoirs and chronicles, daily weather reports, newspapers, book of judgments, economic records, correspondence, among others, and examine the various types of meteorological information we can from each of them, as well as the care to be taken in their use. Keywords: Modern Period, archive sources, climatic variations, hydrometeorological extremes, Portugal.

An Update to the Warm-Season Convective Wind Climatology of KSC/CCAFS

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lupo, Kevin

2012-01-01

Total of 1100 convective events in the 17-year warm-season climatology at KSC/CCAFS. July and August typically are the peak of convective events, May being the minimum. Warning and non-warning level convective winds are more likely to occur in the late afternoon (1900-2000Z). Southwesterly flow regimes and wind directions produce the strongest winds. Storms moving from southwesterly direction tend to produce more warning level winds than those moving from the northerly and easterly directions.

Climatology 2011: An MLS and Sonde Derived Ozone Climatology for Satellite Retrieval Algorithms

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

McPeters, Richard D.; Labow, Gordon J.

2012-01-01

The ozone climatology used as the a priori for the version 8 Solar Backscatter Ultraviolet (SBUV) retrieval algorithms has been updated. The Microwave Limb Sounder (MLS) instrument on Aura has excellent latitude coverage and measures ozone daily from the upper troposphere to the lower mesosphere. The new climatology consists of monthly average ozone profiles for ten degree latitude zones covering pressure altitudes from 0 to 65 km. The climatology was formed by combining data from Aura MLS (2004-2010) with data from balloon sondes (1988-2010). Ozone below 8 km (below 12 km at high latitudes) is based on balloons sondes, while ozone above 16 km (21 km at high latitudes) is based on MLS measurements. Sonde and MLS data are blended in the transition region. Ozone accuracy in the upper troposphere is greatly improved because of the near uniform coverage by Aura MLS, while the addition of a large number of balloon sonde measurements improves the accuracy in the lower troposphere, in the tropics and southern hemisphere in particular. The addition of MLS data also improves the accuracy of climatology in the upper stratosphere and lower mesosphere. The revised climatology has been used for the latest reprocessing of SBUV and TOMS satellite ozone data.

An Updated TRMM Composite Climatology of Tropical Rainfall and Its Validation

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Wang, Jian-Jian; Adler, Robert F.; Huffman, George; Bolvin, David

2013-01-01

An updated 15-yr Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) composite climatology (TCC) is presented and evaluated. This climatology is based on a combination of individual rainfall estimates made with data from the primaryTRMMinstruments: theTRMM Microwave Imager (TMI) and the precipitation radar (PR). This combination climatology of passive microwave retrievals, radar-based retrievals, and an algorithm using both instruments simultaneously provides a consensus TRMM-based estimate of mean precipitation. The dispersion of the three estimates, as indicated by the standard deviation sigma among the estimates, is presented as a measure of confidence in the final estimate and as an estimate of the uncertainty thereof. The procedures utilized by the compositing technique, including adjustments and quality-control measures, are described. The results give a mean value of the TCC of 4.3mm day(exp -1) for the deep tropical ocean beltbetween 10 deg N and 10 deg S, with lower values outside that band. In general, the TCC values confirm ocean estimates from the Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP) analysis, which is based on passive microwave results adjusted for sampling by infrared-based estimates. The pattern of uncertainty estimates shown by sigma is seen to be useful to indicate variations in confidence. Examples include differences between the eastern and western portions of the Pacific Ocean and high values in coastal and mountainous areas. Comparison of the TCC values (and the input products) to gauge analyses over land indicates the value of the radar-based estimates (small biases) and the limitations of the passive microwave algorithm (relatively large biases). Comparison with surface gauge information from western Pacific Ocean atolls shows a negative bias (16%) for all the TRMM products, although the representativeness of the atoll gauges of open-ocean rainfall is still in question.

Impacts of updated green vegetation fraction data on WRF simulations of the 2006 European heat wave

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Refslund, J.; Dellwik, E.; Hahmann, A. N.; Barlage, M. J.; Boegh, E.

2012-12-01

Climate change studies suggest an increase in heat wave occurrences over Europe in the coming decades. Extreme events with excessive heat and associated drought will impact vegetation growth and health and lead to alterations in the partitioning of the surface energy. In this study, the atmospheric conditions during the heat wave year 2006 over Europe were simulated using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model. To account for the drought effects on the vegetation, new high-resolution green vegetation fraction (GVF) data were developed for the domain using NDVI data from MODIS satellite observations. Many empirical relationships exist to convert NDVI to GVF and both a linear and a quadratic formulation were evaluated. The new GVF product has a spatial resolution of 1 km2 and a temporal resolution of 8 days. To minimize impacts from low-quality satellite retrievals in the NDVI series, as well as for comparison with the default GVF climatology in WRF, a new background climatology using 10 recent years of observations was also developed. The annual time series of the new GVF climatology was compared to the default WRF GVF climatology at 18 km2 grid resolution for the most common land use classes in the European domain. The new climatology generally has higher GVF levels throughout the year, in particular an extended autumnal growth season. Comparison of 2006 GVF with the climatology clearly indicates vegetation stresses related to heat and drought. The GVF product based on a quadratic NDVI relationship shows the best agreement with the magnitude and annual range of the default input data, in addition to including updated seasonality for various land use classes. The new GVF products were tested in WRF and found to work well for the spring of 2006 where the difference between the default and new GVF products was small. The WRF 2006 heat wave simulations were verified by comparison with daily gridded observations of mean, minimum and maximum temperature and daily precipitation. The simulation using the new GVF product with a quadratic relationship to NDVI resulted in a consistent improvement of modeled temperatures during the heat wave period, where the mean temperature cold bias of the model was reduced by 10% for the whole domain and by 30-50% in areas severely affected by the heat wave. More improvement was found in the simulation of minimum temperature and less in maximum temperature and the impact on precipitation was not significant. The results show that model simulations during heat waves and droughts, when vegetation condition deviates from climatology, require updated land surface properties in order to obtain reliably accurate results.

SPARC Intercomparison of Middle Atmosphere Climatologies

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Randel, William; Fleming, Eric; Geller, Marvin; Hamilton, Kevin; Karoly, David; Ortland, Dave; Pawson, Steve; Swinbank, Richard; Udelhofen, Petra

2002-01-01

This atlas presents detailed incomparisons of several climatological wind and temperature data sets which cover the middle atmosphere (over altitudes approx. 10-80 km). A number of middle atmosphere climatologies have been developed in the research community based on a variety of meteorological analyses and satellite data sets. Here we present comparisons between these climatological data sets for a number of basic circulation statistics, such as zonal mean temperature, winds and eddy flux statistics. Special attention is focused on tropical winds and temperatures, where large differences exist among separate analyses. We also include comparisons between the global climatologies and historical rocketsonde wind and temperature measurements, and also with more recent lidar temperature data. These comparisons highlight differences and uncertainties in contemporary middle atmosphere data sets, and allow biases in particular analyses to be isolated. In addition, a brief atlas of zonal mean temperature and wind statistics is provided to highlight data availability and as a quick-look reference. This technical report is intended as a companion to the climatological data sets held in archive at the SPARC Data Center (http://www.sparc.sunysb.edu).

Classification and Feature Selection Algorithms for Modeling Ice Storm Climatology

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Swaminathan, R.; Sridharan, M.; Hayhoe, K.; Dobbie, G.

2015-12-01

Ice storms account for billions of dollars of winter storm loss across the continental US and Canada. In the future, increasing concentration of human populations in areas vulnerable to ice storms such as the northeastern US will only exacerbate the impacts of these extreme events on infrastructure and society. Quantifying the potential impacts of global climate change on ice storm prevalence and frequency is challenging, as ice storm climatology is driven by complex and incompletely defined atmospheric processes, processes that are in turn influenced by a changing climate. This makes the underlying atmospheric and computational modeling of ice storm climatology a formidable task. We propose a novel computational framework that uses sophisticated stochastic classification and feature selection algorithms to model ice storm climatology and quantify storm occurrences from both reanalysis and global climate model outputs. The framework is based on an objective identification of ice storm events by key variables derived from vertical profiles of temperature, humidity and geopotential height. Historical ice storm records are used to identify days with synoptic-scale upper air and surface conditions associated with ice storms. Evaluation using NARR reanalysis and historical ice storm records corresponding to the northeastern US demonstrates that an objective computational model with standard performance measures, with a relatively high degree of accuracy, identify ice storm events based on upper-air circulation patterns and provide insights into the relationships between key climate variables associated with ice storms.

Muiti-Sensor Historical Climatology of Satellite-Derived Global Land Surface Moisture

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Owe, Manfred; deJeu, Richard; Holmes, Thomas

2007-01-01

A historical climatology of continuous satellite derived global land surface soil moisture is being developed. The data set consists of surface soil moisture retrievals from observations of both historical and currently active satellite microwave sensors, including Nimbus-7 SMMR, DMSP SSM/I, TRMM TMI, and AQUA AMSR-E. The data sets span the period from November 1978 through the end of 2006. The soil moisture retrievals are made with the Land Parameter Retrieval Model, a physically-based model which was developed jointly by researchers from the above institutions. These data are significant in that they are the longest continuous data record of observational surface soil moisture at a global scale. Furthermore, while previous reports have intimated that higher frequency sensors such as on SSM/I are unable to provide meaningful information on soil moisture, our results indicate that these sensors do provide highly useful soil moisture data over significant parts of the globe, and especially in critical areas located within the Earth's many arid and semi-arid regions.

Climatologies at high resolution for the earth’s land surface areas

PubMed Central

Karger, Dirk Nikolaus; Conrad, Olaf; Böhner, Jürgen; Kawohl, Tobias; Kreft, Holger; Soria-Auza, Rodrigo Wilber; Zimmermann, Niklaus E.; Linder, H. Peter; Kessler, Michael

2017-01-01

High-resolution information on climatic conditions is essential to many applications in environmental and ecological sciences. Here we present the CHELSA (Climatologies at high resolution for the earth’s land surface areas) data of downscaled model output temperature and precipitation estimates of the ERA-Interim climatic reanalysis to a high resolution of 30 arc sec. The temperature algorithm is based on statistical downscaling of atmospheric temperatures. The precipitation algorithm incorporates orographic predictors including wind fields, valley exposition, and boundary layer height, with a subsequent bias correction. The resulting data consist of a monthly temperature and precipitation climatology for the years 1979–2013. We compare the data derived from the CHELSA algorithm with other standard gridded products and station data from the Global Historical Climate Network. We compare the performance of the new climatologies in species distribution modelling and show that we can increase the accuracy of species range predictions. We further show that CHELSA climatological data has a similar accuracy as other products for temperature, but that its predictions of precipitation patterns are better. PMID:28872642

Climatologies at high resolution for the earth's land surface areas

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Karger, Dirk Nikolaus; Conrad, Olaf; Böhner, Jürgen; Kawohl, Tobias; Kreft, Holger; Soria-Auza, Rodrigo Wilber; Zimmermann, Niklaus E.; Linder, H. Peter; Kessler, Michael

2017-09-01

High-resolution information on climatic conditions is essential to many applications in environmental and ecological sciences. Here we present the CHELSA (Climatologies at high resolution for the earth's land surface areas) data of downscaled model output temperature and precipitation estimates of the ERA-Interim climatic reanalysis to a high resolution of 30 arc sec. The temperature algorithm is based on statistical downscaling of atmospheric temperatures. The precipitation algorithm incorporates orographic predictors including wind fields, valley exposition, and boundary layer height, with a subsequent bias correction. The resulting data consist of a monthly temperature and precipitation climatology for the years 1979-2013. We compare the data derived from the CHELSA algorithm with other standard gridded products and station data from the Global Historical Climate Network. We compare the performance of the new climatologies in species distribution modelling and show that we can increase the accuracy of species range predictions. We further show that CHELSA climatological data has a similar accuracy as other products for temperature, but that its predictions of precipitation patterns are better.

Chemical Composition and Dynamics of the Upper Troposphere and the Lower Stratosphere: Overview of the Project

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sofieva, V. F.; Liu, C.; Huang, F.; Kyrola, E.; Liu, Y.; Ialongo, I.; Hakkarainen, J.; Zhang, Y.

2016-08-01

The DRAGON-3 cooperation study on the upper troposphere and the lower stratosphere (UTLS) is based on new satellite data and modern atmospheric models. The objectives of the project are: (i) assessment of satellite data on chemical composition in UTLS, (ii) dynamical and chemical structures of the UTLS and its variability, (iii) multi-scale variability of stratospheric ozone, (iv) climatology of the stratospheric aerosol layer and its variability, and (v) updated ozone climatology and its relation to tropopause/multiple tropopauses.In this paper, we present the main results of the project.

Exploring Demographic, Physical, and Historical Explanations for the Genetic Structure of Two Lineages of Greater Antillean Bats

PubMed Central

Muscarella, Robert A.; Murray, Kevin L.; Ortt, Derek; Russell, Amy L.; Fleming, Theodore H.

2011-01-01

Observed patterns of genetic structure result from the interactions of demographic, physical, and historical influences on gene flow. The particular strength of various factors in governing gene flow, however, may differ between species in biologically relevant ways. We investigated the role of demographic factors (population size and sex-biased dispersal) and physical features (geographic distance, island size and climatological winds) on patterns of genetic structure and gene flow for two lineages of Greater Antillean bats. We used microsatellite genetic data to estimate demographic characteristics, infer population genetic structure, and estimate gene flow among island populations of Erophylla sezekorni/E. bombifrons and Macrotus waterhousii (Chiroptera: Phyllostomidae). Using a landscape genetics approach, we asked if geographic distance, island size, or climatological winds mediate historical gene flow in this system. Samples from 13 islands spanning Erophylla's range clustered into five genetically distinct populations. Samples of M. waterhousii from eight islands represented eight genetically distinct populations. While we found evidence that a majority of historical gene flow between genetic populations was asymmetric for both lineages, we were not able to entirely rule out incomplete lineage sorting in generating this pattern. We found no evidence of contemporary gene flow except between two genetic populations of Erophylla. Both lineages exhibited significant isolation by geographic distance. Patterns of genetic structure and gene flow, however, were not explained by differences in relative effective population sizes, island area, sex-biased dispersal (tested only for Erophylla), or surface-level climatological winds. Gene flow among islands appears to be highly restricted, particularly for M. waterhousii, and we suggest that this species deserves increased taxonomic attention and conservation concern. PMID:21445291

Regional Frequency and Uncertainty Analysis of Extreme Precipitation in Bangladesh

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mortuza, M. R.; Demissie, Y.; Li, H. Y.

2014-12-01

Increased frequency of extreme precipitations, especially those with multiday durations, are responsible for recent urban floods and associated significant losses of lives and infrastructures in Bangladesh. Reliable and routinely updated estimation of the frequency of occurrence of such extreme precipitation events are thus important for developing up-to-date hydraulic structures and stormwater drainage system that can effectively minimize future risk from similar events. In this study, we have updated the intensity-duration-frequency (IDF) curves for Bangladesh using daily precipitation data from 1961 to 2010 and quantified associated uncertainties. Regional frequency analysis based on L-moments is applied on 1-day, 2-day and 5-day annual maximum precipitation series due to its advantages over at-site estimation. The regional frequency approach pools the information from climatologically similar sites to make reliable estimates of quantiles given that the pooling group is homogeneous and of reasonable size. We have used Region of influence (ROI) approach along with homogeneity measure based on L-moments to identify the homogenous pooling groups for each site. Five 3-parameter distributions (i.e., Generalized Logistic, Generalized Extreme value, Generalized Normal, Pearson Type Three, and Generalized Pareto) are used for a thorough selection of appropriate models that fit the sample data. Uncertainties related to the selection of the distributions and historical data are quantified using the Bayesian Model Averaging and Balanced Bootstrap approaches respectively. The results from this study can be used to update the current design and management of hydraulic structures as well as in exploring spatio-temporal variations of extreme precipitation and associated risk.

The 2015 drought in Washington State: a harbinger of things to come?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Marlier, Miriam E.; Xiao, Mu; Engel, Ruth; Livneh, Ben; Abatzoglou, John T.; Lettenmaier, Dennis P.

2017-11-01

Washington State experienced widespread drought in 2015 and the largest burned area in the observational record, attributable in part to exceptionally low winter snow accumulation and high summer temperatures. We examine 2015 drought severity in the Cascade and Olympic mountains relative to the historical climatology (1950-present) and future climate projections (mid-21st century) for a mid-range global greenhouse gas emissions scenario. Although winter precipitation was near normal, the regional winter temperature anomaly was +2.1 °C (+2.0σ) in 2015, consistent with projections of a +2.3 °C (+2.2σ) temperature change and near normal precipitation in the future, relative to the climatology. April 1 snow water equivalent in 2015, -325 mm (-1.5σ), and the future, -252 mm (-1.1σ), were substantially lower than the climatology. Wildfire potential, as indicated by dead fuel moisture content, was higher in 2015 than mid-21st century mean projections. In contrast to most historical droughts, which have been driven by precipitation deficits, our results suggest that 2015 is a useful analog of typical conditions in the Pacific Northwest by the mid-21st century.

Land Boundary Conditions for the Goddard Earth Observing System Model Version 5 (GEOS-5) Climate Modeling System: Recent Updates and Data File Descriptions

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Mahanama, Sarith P.; Koster, Randal D.; Walker, Gregory K.; Takacs, Lawrence L.; Reichle, Rolf H.; De Lannoy, Gabrielle; Liu, Qing; Zhao, Bin; Suarez, Max J.

2015-01-01

The Earths land surface boundary conditions in the Goddard Earth Observing System version 5 (GEOS-5) modeling system were updated using recent high spatial and temporal resolution global data products. The updates include: (i) construction of a global 10-arcsec land-ocean lakes-ice mask; (ii) incorporation of a 10-arcsec Globcover 2009 land cover dataset; (iii) implementation of Level 12 Pfafstetter hydrologic catchments; (iv) use of hybridized SRTM global topography data; (v) construction of the HWSDv1.21-STATSGO2 merged global 30 arc second soil mineral and carbon data in conjunction with a highly-refined soil classification system; (vi) production of diffuse visible and near-infrared 8-day MODIS albedo climatologies at 30-arcsec from the period 2001-2011; and (vii) production of the GEOLAND2 and MODIS merged 8-day LAI climatology at 30-arcsec for GEOS-5. The global data sets were preprocessed and used to construct global raster data files for the software (mkCatchParam) that computes parameters on catchment-tiles for various atmospheric grids. The updates also include a few bug fixes in mkCatchParam, as well as changes (improvements in algorithms, etc.) to mkCatchParam that allow it to produce tile-space parameters efficiently for high resolution AGCM grids. The update process also includes the construction of data files describing the vegetation type fractions, soil background albedo, nitrogen deposition and mean annual 2m air temperature to be used with the future Catchment CN model and the global stream channel network to be used with the future global runoff routing model. This report provides detailed descriptions of the data production process and data file format of each updated data set.

The Mpi-M Aerosol Climatology (MAC)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kinne, S.

2014-12-01

Monthly gridded global data-sets for aerosol optical properties (AOD, SSA and g) and for aerosol microphysical properties (CCN and IN) offer a (less complex) alternate path to include aerosol radiative effects and aerosol impacts on cloud-microphysics in global simulations. Based on merging AERONET sun-/sky-photometer data onto background maps provided by AeroCom phase 1 modeling output and AERONET sun-/the MPI-M Aerosol Climatology (MAC) version 1 was developed and applied in IPCC simulations with ECHAM and as ancillary data-set in satellite-based global data-sets. An updated version 2 of this climatology will be presented now applying central values from the more recent AeroCom phase 2 modeling and utilizing the better global coverage of trusted sun-photometer data - including statistics from the Marine Aerosol network (MAN). Applications include spatial distributions of estimates for aerosol direct and aerosol indirect radiative effects.

Climate and History-An Alternative Science Distribution Course

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Moran, Joseph M.

1976-01-01

Describes an introductory college science course for nonscience majors concentrating on climatology and meteorology. Student apathy and discontent with science is overcome through a historically relevant presentation of the subjects. Results indicate a significant stimulation of student interest in science. (SL)

Climate Prediction Center - Monitoring & Data: Current Monthly Atmospheric

Science.gov Websites

Data > Oceanic & Atmospheric Data > Monthly Atmospheric and SST Indices Alert Climate Diagnostics Bulletin Updates to Climatologies and Indices Beginning with January 2011 Data (To appear in : ftp.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/wd52dg/data/indices Frequently Asked Questions Questions/comments. Contact: Wei.Shi@noaa.gov To

The Ogallala Agro-Climate Tool (Technical Description)

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

A Visual Basic agro-climate application capable of estimating irrigation demand and crop water use over the Ogallala Aquifer region is described here. The application’s meteorological database consists of daily precipitation and temperature data from 141 U.S. Historical Climatology Network stations ...

Verification of space weather forecasts at the UK Met Office

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bingham, S.; Sharpe, M.; Jackson, D.; Murray, S.

2017-12-01

The UK Met Office Space Weather Operations Centre (MOSWOC) has produced space weather guidance twice a day since its official opening in 2014. Guidance includes 4-day probabilistic forecasts of X-ray flares, geomagnetic storms, high-energy electron events and high-energy proton events. Evaluation of such forecasts is important to forecasters, stakeholders, model developers and users to understand the performance of these forecasts and also strengths and weaknesses to enable further development. Met Office terrestrial near real-time verification systems have been adapted to provide verification of X-ray flare and geomagnetic storm forecasts. Verification is updated daily to produce Relative Operating Characteristic (ROC) curves and Reliability diagrams, and rolling Ranked Probability Skill Scores (RPSSs) thus providing understanding of forecast performance and skill. Results suggest that the MOSWOC issued X-ray flare forecasts are usually not statistically significantly better than a benchmark climatological forecast (where the climatology is based on observations from the previous few months). By contrast, the issued geomagnetic storm activity forecast typically performs better against this climatological benchmark.

Detect signals of interdecadal climate variations from an enhanced suite of reconstructed precipitation products since 1850 using the historical station data from Global Historical Climatology Network and the dynamical patterns derived from Global Precipitation Climatology Project

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shen, S. S.

2015-12-01

This presentation describes the detection of interdecadal climate signals in a newly reconstructed precipitation data from 1850-present. Examples are on precipitation signatures of East Asian Monsoon (EAM), Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) and Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillations (AMO). The new reconstruction dataset is an enhanced edition of a suite of global precipitation products reconstructed by Spectral Optimal Gridding of Precipitation Version 1.0 (SOGP 1.0). The maximum temporal coverage is 1850-present and the spatial coverage is quasi-global (75S, 75N). This enhanced version has three different temporal resolutions (5-day, monthly, and annual) and two different spatial resolutions (2.5 deg and 5.0 deg). It also has a friendly Graphical User Interface (GUI). SOGP uses a multivariate regression method using an empirical orthogonal function (EOF) expansion. The Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP) precipitation data from 1981-20010 are used to calculate the EOFs. The Global Historical Climatology Network (GHCN) gridded data are used to calculate the regression coefficients for reconstructions. The sampling errors of the reconstruction are analyzed according to the number of EOF modes used in the reconstruction. Our reconstructed 1900-2011 time series of the global average annual precipitation shows a 0.024 (mm/day)/100a trend, which is very close to the trend derived from the mean of 25 models of the CMIP5 (Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5). Our reconstruction has been validated by GPCP data after 1979. Our reconstruction successfully displays the 1877 El Nino (see the attached figure), which is considered a validation before 1900. Our precipitation products are publically available online, including digital data, precipitation animations, computer codes, readme files, and the user manual. This work is a joint effort of San Diego State University (Sam Shen, Gregori Clarke, Christian Junjinger, Nancy Tafolla, Barbara Sperberg, and Melanie Thorn), UCLA (Yongkang Xue), and University of Maryland (Tom Smith and Phil Arkin) and supported in part by the U.S. National Science Foundation (Awards No. AGS-1419256 and AGS-1015957).

Climatological Impact of Atmospheric River Based on NARCCAP and DRI-RCM Datasets

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mejia, J. F.; Perryman, N. M.

2012-12-01

This study evaluates spatial responses of extreme precipitation environments, typically associated with Atmospheric River events, using Regional Climate Model (RCM) output from NARCCAP dataset (50km grid size) and the Desert Research Institute-RCM simulations (36 and 12 km grid size). For this study, a pattern-detection algorithm was developed to characterize Atmospheric Rivers (ARs)-like features from climate models. Topological analysis of the enhanced elongated moisture flux (500-300hPa; daily means) cores is used to objectively characterize such AR features in two distinct groups: (i) zonal, north Pacific ARs, and (ii) subtropical ARs, also known as "Pineapple Express" events. We computed the climatological responses of the different RCMs upon these two AR groups, from which intricate differences among RCMs stand out. This study presents these climatological responses from historical and scenario driven simulations, as well as implications for precipitation extreme-value analyses.

Climatology of extreme daily precipitation in Colorado and its diverse spatial and seasonal variability

USGS Publications Warehouse

Mahoney, Kelly M.; Ralph, F. Martin; Walter, Klaus; Doesken, Nolan; Dettinger, Michael; Gottas, Daniel; Coleman, Timothy; White, Allen

2015-01-01

The climatology of Colorado’s historical extreme precipitation events shows a remarkable degree of seasonal and regional variability. Analysis of the largest historical daily precipitation totals at COOP stations across Colorado by season indicates that the largest recorded daily precipitation totals have ranged from less than 60 mm day−1 in some areas to more than 250 mm day−1 in others. East of the Continental Divide, winter events are rarely among the top 10 events at a given site, but spring events dominate in and near the foothills; summer events are most common across the lower-elevation eastern plains, while fall events are most typical for the lower elevations west of the Divide. The seasonal signal in Colorado’s central mountains is complex; high-elevation intense precipitation events have occurred in all months of the year, including summer, when precipitation is more likely to be liquid (as opposed to snow), which poses more of an instantaneous flood risk. Notably, the historic Colorado Front Range daily rainfall totals that contributed to the damaging floods in September 2013 occurred outside of that region’s typical season for most extreme precipitation (spring–summer). That event and many others highlight the fact that extreme precipitation in Colorado has occurred historically during all seasons and at all elevations, emphasizing a year-round statewide risk.

MEAN MINIMUM TEMPERATURE DATA - U.S HISTORICAL CLIMATOLOGY NETWORK (HCN)

EPA Science Inventory

The Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis Center, which includes the World Data Center-A for Atmospheric Trace Gases, is the primary global-change data and information analysis center of the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE). CDIACs scope includes potentially anything and everything...

MEAN AVERAGE TEMPERATURE DATA - U.S HISTORICAL CLIMATOLOGY NETWORK (HCN)

EPA Science Inventory

The Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis Center, which includes the World Data Center-A for Atmospheric Trace Gases, is the primary global-change data and information analysis center of the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE). CDIACs scope includes potentially anything and everything...

MEAN MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE DATA - U.S HISTORICAL CLIMATOLOGY NETWORK (HCN)

EPA Science Inventory

The Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis Center, which includes the World Data Center-A for Atmospheric Trace Gases, is the primary global-change data and information analysis center of the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE). CDIACs scope includes potentially anything and everything...

Famine Early Warning Systems Network (FEWS NET) Agro-climatology Analysis Tools and Knowledge Base Products for Food Security Applications

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Budde, M. E.; Rowland, J.; Anthony, M.; Palka, S.; Martinez, J.; Hussain, R.

2017-12-01

The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) supports the use of Earth observation data for food security monitoring through its role as an implementing partner of the Famine Early Warning Systems Network (FEWS NET). The USGS Earth Resources Observation and Science (EROS) Center has developed tools designed to aid food security analysts in developing assumptions of agro-climatological outcomes. There are four primary steps to developing agro-climatology assumptions; including: 1) understanding the climatology, 2) evaluating current climate modes, 3) interpretation of forecast information, and 4) incorporation of monitoring data. Analysts routinely forecast outcomes well in advance of the growing season, which relies on knowledge of climatology. A few months prior to the growing season, analysts can assess large-scale climate modes that might influence seasonal outcomes. Within two months of the growing season, analysts can evaluate seasonal forecast information as indicators. Once the growing season begins, monitoring data, based on remote sensing and field information, can characterize the start of season and remain integral monitoring tools throughout the duration of the season. Each subsequent step in the process can lead to modifications of the original climatology assumption. To support such analyses, we have created an agro-climatology analysis tool that characterizes each step in the assumption building process. Satellite-based rainfall and normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI)-based products support both the climatology and monitoring steps, sea-surface temperature data and knowledge of the global climate system inform the climate modes, and precipitation forecasts at multiple scales support the interpretation of forecast information. Organizing these data for a user-specified area provides a valuable tool for food security analysts to better formulate agro-climatology assumptions that feed into food security assessments. We have also developed a knowledge base for over 80 countries that provide rainfall and NDVI-based products, including annual and seasonal summaries, historical anomalies, coefficient of variation, and number of years below 70% of annual or seasonal averages. These products provide a quick look for analysts to assess the agro-climatology of a country.

Leveraging Past and Current Measurements to Probabilistically Nowcast Low Visibility Procedures at an Airport

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mayr, G. J.; Kneringer, P.; Dietz, S. J.; Zeileis, A.

2016-12-01

Low visibility or low cloud ceiling reduce the capacity of airports by requiring special low visibility procedures (LVP) for incoming/departing aircraft. Probabilistic forecasts when such procedures will become necessary help to mitigate delays and economic losses.We compare the performance of probabilistic nowcasts with two statistical methods: ordered logistic regression, and trees and random forests. These models harness historic and current meteorological measurements in the vicinity of the airport and LVP states, and incorporate diurnal and seasonal climatological information via generalized additive models (GAM). The methods are applied at Vienna International Airport (Austria). The performance is benchmarked against climatology, persistence and human forecasters.

TOTAL PRECIPITATION DATA - U.S HISTORICAL CLIMATOLOGY NETWORK (HCN)

EPA Science Inventory

The Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis Center, which includes the World Data Center-A for Atmospheric Trace Gases, is the primary global-change data and information analysis center of the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE). More than just an archive of data sets and publications, ...

A climatology of late-spring freezes in the northeastern United States.

Treesearch

Brian E. Potter; Thomas W. Cate

1999-01-01

Presents maps of late-spring freeze characteristics for the northeastern and north central United States based on heat-sum thresholds and historic climate data. Discusses patterns seen in the maps. Provides examples and ways these maps could be used by resource managers and research scientists.

A reduction in the asymmetry of ENSO amplitude due to global warming: The role of atmospheric feedback

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ham, Yoo-Geun

2017-08-01

This study analyzes a reduction in the asymmetry of El Niño Southern-Oscillation (ENSO) amplitude due to global warming in Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 models. The multimodel-averaged Niño3 skewness during December-February season decreased approximately 40% in the RCP4.5 scenario compared to that in the historical simulation. The change in the nonlinear relationship between sea surface temperature (SST) and precipitation is a key factor for understanding the reduction in ENSO asymmetry due to global warming. In the historical simulations, the background SST leading to the greatest precipitation sensitivity (SST for Maximum Precipitation Sensitivity, SST_MPS) occurs when the positive SST anomaly is located over the equatorial central Pacific. Therefore, an increase in climatological SST due to global warming weakens the atmospheric response during El Niño over the central Pacific. However, the climatological SST over this region in the historical simulation is still lower than the SST_MPS for the negative SST anomaly; therefore, a background SST increase due to global warming can further increase precipitation sensitivity. The atmospheric feedbacks during La Niña are enhanced and increase the La Niña amplitude due to global warming.

Situational Lightning Climatologies

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Bauman, William; Crawford, Winifred

2010-01-01

Research has revealed distinct spatial and temporal distributions of lightning occurrence that are strongly influenced by large-scale atmospheric flow regimes. It was believed there were two flow systems, but it has been discovered that actually there are seven distinct flow regimes. The Applied Meteorology Unit (AMU) has recalculated the lightning climatologies for the Shuttle Landing Facility (SLF), and the eight airfields in the National Weather Service in Melbourne (NWS MLB) County Warning Area (CWA) using individual lightning strike data to improve the accuracy of the climatologies. The software determines the location of each CG lightning strike with 5-, 10-, 20-, and 30-nmi (.9.3-, 18.5-, 37-, 55.6-km) radii from each airfield. Each CG lightning strike is binned at 1-, 3-, and 6-hour intervals at each specified radius. The software merges the CG lightning strike time intervals and distance with each wind flow regime and creates probability statistics for each time interval, radii, and flow regime, and stratifies them by month and warm season. The AMU also updated the graphical user interface (GUI) with the new data.

77 FR 23109 - Airworthiness Directives; Agusta S.p.A. Helicopters

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2012-04-18

... contains regulatory documents #0;having general applicability and legal effect, most of which are keyed #0... establishing a revised life limit for each tail rotor (T/R) blade and updating the helicopter's historical... life limit for each T/R blade and updating the helicopter's historical records, repetitively inspecting...

Climatology of the interior Columbia River basin.

Treesearch

Sue A. Ferguson

1999-01-01

This work describes climate means and trends in each of three major ecological zones and 13 ecological reporting units in the interior Columbia River basin. Widely differing climates help define each major zone and reporting unit, the pattern of which is controlled by three competing air masses: marine, continental, and arctic. Paleoclimatic evidence and historical...

Measuring Thermal Variations in a Valley Environment Using a Team, Field Project Designed by Students

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Abbott, J. Anthony

2006-01-01

Students frequently struggle when scientific instruction seems divorced from personal experience, especially in the physical sub-disciplines, like climatology, where exercise books often present historical or abstracted case studies. In contrast I present a three-phase project involving student input on experimental design, data collection, and…

Atmospheric/oceanic influence on climate in the southern Appalachians

Treesearch

Mark S. Riedel

2006-01-01

Despite a wealth of research, scientists still disagree about the existence, magnitude, duration and potential causes of global warming and climate change. For example, only recently have we recognized that, given historical global climate patterns, much of the global warming trend we are experiencing appears to be natural. We analyzed long-term climatologic records...

Hurricane Properties for KSC and Mid-Florida Coastal Sites

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Johnson, Dale L.; Rawlins, Michael A.; Kross, Dennis A.

2000-01-01

Hurricane information and climatologies are needed at Kennedy Space Center (KSC) Florida for launch operational planning purposes during the late summer and early fall Atlantic hurricane season. Also these results are needed to be used in estimating the potential magnitudes of hurricane and tropical storm impact on coastal Florida sites when passing within 50, 100 and 400 nm of that site. Roll-backs of the Space Shuttle and other launch vehicles, on pad, are very costly when a tropical storm approaches. A decision for the vehicle to roll-back or ride-out needs to be made. Therefore the historical Atlantic basin hurricane climatological properties were generated to be used for operational planning purposes and in the estimation of potential damage to launch vehicles, supporting equipment, buildings, etc.. The historical 1885-1998 Atlantic basin hurricane data were compiled and analyzed with respect to the coastal Florida site of KSC. Statistical information generated includes hurricane and tropical storm probabilities for path, maximum wind, and lowest pressure, presented for the areas within 50, 100 and 400 nm of KSC. These statistics are then compared to similar parametric statistics for the entire Atlantic basin.

genRE: A Method to Extend Gridded Precipitation Climatology Data Sets in Near Real-Time for Hydrological Forecasting Purposes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

van Osnabrugge, B.; Weerts, A. H.; Uijlenhoet, R.

2017-11-01

To enable operational flood forecasting and drought monitoring, reliable and consistent methods for precipitation interpolation are needed. Such methods need to deal with the deficiencies of sparse operational real-time data compared to quality-controlled offline data sources used in historical analyses. In particular, often only a fraction of the measurement network reports in near real-time. For this purpose, we present an interpolation method, generalized REGNIE (genRE), which makes use of climatological monthly background grids derived from existing gridded precipitation climatology data sets. We show how genRE can be used to mimic and extend climatological precipitation data sets in near real-time using (sparse) real-time measurement networks in the Rhine basin upstream of the Netherlands (approximately 160,000 km2). In the process, we create a 1.2 × 1.2 km transnational gridded hourly precipitation data set for the Rhine basin. Precipitation gauge data are collected, spatially interpolated for the period 1996-2015 with genRE and inverse-distance squared weighting (IDW), and then evaluated on the yearly and daily time scale against the HYRAS and EOBS climatological data sets. Hourly fields are compared qualitatively with RADOLAN radar-based precipitation estimates. Two sources of uncertainty are evaluated: station density and the impact of different background grids (HYRAS versus EOBS). The results show that the genRE method successfully mimics climatological precipitation data sets (HYRAS/EOBS) over daily, monthly, and yearly time frames. We conclude that genRE is a good interpolation method of choice for real-time operational use. genRE has the largest added value over IDW for cases with a low real-time station density and a high-resolution background grid.

Earth GRAM-99 and Trace Constituents

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Justus, C. G.; Duvall, Aleta; Keller, Vernon W.

2004-01-01

Global Reference Atmospheric Model (GRAM-99) is an engineering-level model of Earth's atmosphere. It provides both mean values and perturbations for density, temperature, pressure, and winds, as well as monthly- and geographically-varying trace constituent concentrations. From 0-27 km, GRAM thermodynamics and winds are based on National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Global Upper Air Climatic Atlas (GUACA) climatology. Above 120 km, GRAM is based on the NASA Marshall Engineering Thermosphere (MET) model. In the intervening altitude region, GRAM is based on Middle Atmosphere Program (MAP) climatology that also forms the basis of the 1986 COSPAR International Reference Atmosphere (CIRA). Atmospheric composition is represented in GRAM by concentrations of both major and minor species. Above 120 km, MET provides concentration values for N2, O2, Ar, O, He, and H. Below 120 km, species represented also include H2O, O3, N2O, CO, CH4, and CO2. At COSPAR 2002 a comparison was made between GRAM constituents below 120 km and those provided by Naval Research Laboratory (NRL) climatology. No current need to update GRAM constituent climatology in that height range was identified. This report examines GRAM (MET) constituents between 100 and 1000 km altitudes. Discrepancies are noted between GRAM (MET) constituent number densities and mass density or molecular weight. Near 110 km altitude, there is up to about 25% discrepancy between MET number density and mass density (with mass density being valid and number densities requiring adjustment). Near 700 km altitude there is also up to about 25% discrepancy between MET number density and mean molecular weight (with molecular weight requiring adjustment). In neither case are MET mass density estimates invalidated. These discrepancies have been traced to MET subroutines SLV (which affects 90-170 km height range) and SLVH (which affects helium above 440 km altitude). With these discrepancies corrected, results are presented to illustrate GRAM (MET) constituent mole fractions in terms of height-latitude cross sections from 100 to 1000 km altitude, and latitude-longitude 'maps' at 450 km (approximate height of International Space Station). Plans are discussed for an update of MET (and GRAM) to correct these constituent inconsistencies and to incorporate several new thermospheric model features.

Challenges to producing a long-term stratospheric aerosol climatology for chemistry and climate

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Thomason, Larry; Vernier, Jean-Paul; Bourassa, Adam; Rieger, Landon; Luo, Beiping; Peter, Thomas; Arfeuille, Florian

2016-04-01

Stratospheric aerosol data sets are key inputs for climate models (GCMs, CCMs) particularly for understanding the role of volcanoes on climate and as a surrogate for understanding the potential of human-derived stratospheric aerosol as mitigation for global warming. In addition to supporting activities of individual climate models, the data sets also act as a historical input to the activities of SPARC's Chemistry-Climate Model Initiative (CCMI) and the World Climate Research Programme's Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP). One such data set was produced in 2004 as a part of the SPARC Assessment of Stratospheric Aerosol Properties (ASAP), extending from 1979 and 2004. It was primarily constructed from the Stratospheric Aerosol and Gas Experiment series of instruments but supplemented by data from other space-based sources and a number of ground-based and airborne instruments. Updates to this data set have expanded the timeframe to span from 1850 through 2014 through the inclusion of data from additional sources, such as photometer data and ice core analyses. Fundamentally, there are limitations to the reliability of the optical properties of aerosol inferred from even the most complete single instrument data sets. At the same time, the heterogeneous nature of the underlying data to this historical data set produces considerable challenges to the production of a climate data set which is both homogeneous and reliable throughout its timespan. In this presentation, we will discuss the impact of this heterogeneity showing specific examples such as the SAGE II to OSIRIS/CALIPSO transition in 2005. Potential solutions to these issues will also be discussed.

Improving Frozen Precipitation Density Estimation in Land Surface Modeling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sparrow, K.; Fall, G. M.

2017-12-01

The Office of Water Prediction (OWP) produces high-value water supply and flood risk planning information through the use of operational land surface modeling. Improvements in diagnosing frozen precipitation density will benefit the NWS's meteorological and hydrological services by refining estimates of a significant and vital input into land surface models. A current common practice for handling the density of snow accumulation in a land surface model is to use a standard 10:1 snow-to-liquid-equivalent ratio (SLR). Our research findings suggest the possibility of a more skillful approach for assessing the spatial variability of precipitation density. We developed a 30-year SLR climatology for the coterminous US from version 3.22 of the Daily Global Historical Climatology Network - Daily (GHCN-D) dataset. Our methods followed the approach described by Baxter (2005) to estimate mean climatological SLR values at GHCN-D sites in the US, Canada, and Mexico for the years 1986-2015. In addition to the Baxter criteria, the following refinements were made: tests were performed to eliminate SLR outliers and frequent reports of SLR = 10, a linear SLR vs. elevation trend was fitted to station SLR mean values to remove the elevation trend from the data, and detrended SLR residuals were interpolated using ordinary kriging with a spherical semivariogram model. The elevation values of each station were based on the GMTED 2010 digital elevation model and the elevation trend in the data was established via linear least squares approximation. The ordinary kriging procedure was used to interpolate the data into gridded climatological SLR estimates for each calendar month at a 0.125 degree resolution. To assess the skill of this climatology, we compared estimates from our SLR climatology with observations from the GHCN-D dataset to consider the potential use of this climatology as a first guess of frozen precipitation density in an operational land surface model. The difference in model derived estimates and GHCN-D observations were assessed using time-series graphs of 2016-2017 winter season SLR observations and climatological estimates, as well as calculating RMSE and variance between estimated and observed values.

An updated climatology of explosive cyclones using alternative measures of cyclone intensity

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hanley, J.; Caballero, R.

2009-04-01

Using a novel cyclone tracking and identification method, we compute a climatology of explosively intensifying cyclones or ‘bombs' using the ERA-40 and ERA-Interim datasets. Traditionally, ‘bombs' have been identified using a central pressure deepening rate criterion (Sanders and Gyakum, 1980). We investigate alternative methods of capturing such extreme cyclones. These methods include using the maximum wind contained within the cyclone, and using a potential vorticity column measure within such systems, as a measure of intensity. Using the different measures of cyclone intensity, we construct and intercompare maps of peak cyclone intensity. We also compute peak intensity probability distributions, and assess the evidence for the bi-modal distribution found by Roebber (1984). Finally, we address the question of the relationship between storm intensification rate and storm destructiveness: are ‘bombs' the most destructive storms?

West Coast atmospheric river climatology in CMIP5 climate models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Warner, M.; Mass, C.; Salathe, E. P.

2015-12-01

In recent years, there has been a flurry of research on how atmospheric river events (ARs) will respond to anthropogenic global warming. This study uses 10 CMIP5 RCP 8.5 climate models to focus on changes in AR frequency, seasonality, and synoptic conditions along the west coast of the United States and is a follow-up to previous work by the same authors (Warner et al. 2015) which investigated expected changes in AR intensity in the same region. There are only very slight changes in annual AR climatology from the end of the last century to the end of this century when considering the most extreme integrated water vapor transport (IVT) events (99th percentile). However, when evaluating by the number of future days exceeding a historical threshold, there are significant increases in extreme IVT events in all months, especially during months when the majority of events take place. The peaks in historical and future frequency occur in similar months given the amount of model variability. Extreme IVT events appear to be occurring slightly earlier in the season, particularly along the northern US coast, and these results are similar to other studies. Spatially, 10-model mean historical composites of IVT reveal canonical AR conditions. At locations farther south, there is less model agreement on the spatial extent and intensity of AR events; whereas farther north, the various models are in agreement. Composites of future events indicate very little spatial change from historical events. The location and orientation of AR events in the historical and future time periods are similar, and the upper-level winds change little over that time period (Warner et al. 2015). This suggests little change in synoptic conditions for approaching ARs. The future-historical difference plots highlight the largest changes expected in the future, namely increases in IVT intensity which are primarily associated with thermodynamic changes related to future integrated water vapor increases due to a warming atmosphere.

Chapter 15. Climate Change and Paleoecology: New Contexts for Restoration Ecology

Treesearch

Constance I. Millar; Linda B. Brubaker

2006-01-01

In this chapter, we explore linkages between two fields that have been little acquainted yet have much to say to one another: restoration ecology and climatology. The limited discourse between these fields is surprising. In the last two decades there have been significant theoretical breakthroughs and a proliferation of research on historical climate and climate-...

Developing a historical climatology of Wales from Welsh and English language sources

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

MacDonald, N.; Davies, S. J.; Jones, C. A.; Charnell-White, C.

2009-04-01

Historical documentary records are recognised as valuable in understanding long term climate variability. In the UK, the Central England Temperature Series (1772- ) and the Lamb weather catalogue (1861- ) provide a detailed climate record for England, but the value of these archives in Wales and Scotland is more limited, though some long term instrumental series exist, particularly for cities such as Cardiff. The spatial distance from the central England area and a lower density of instrumental stations in Wales has limited understanding of climate variability during the instrumental period (~1750- ). This paper illustrates that historical documentary records represent a considerable resource, that to date have been underutilised in developing a more complete understanding of past weather and climate within many parts of Western Europe.

National Educators' Workshop: Update 2003. Standard Experiments in Engineering, Materials Science, and Technology. Part 2

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Prior, Edwin J. (Compiler); Jacobs, James A. (Compiler); Edmonson, William (Compiler); Wilkerson, Amy (Compiler)

2004-01-01

The 18th Annual National Educators Workshop [NEW:Update 2003] was a part of NASA Langley s celebration of the Centennial of Controlled, Powered Flight by Orville and Wilbur Wright on December 17, 1903. The conference proceedings from NEW:Update 2003 reflect the Flight 100 theme by first providing a historic perspective on the remarkable accomplishments of the Wright Brothers. The historical perspective set the stag for insights into aeronautics and aerospace structures and materials now and into the future. The NEW:Update 2003 proceedings provide valuable resources to educators and students in the form of visuals, experiments and demonstrations for classes/labs at levels ranging from precollege through college education.

National Educators' Workshop: Update 2003. Standard Experiments in Engineering, Materials Science, and Technology. Part 1

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Prior, Edwin J. (Compiler); Jacobs, James A. (Compiler); Edmonson, William (Compiler); Wilkerson, Amy (Compiler)

2004-01-01

The 18th Annual National Educators Workshop [NEW:Update 2003] was a part of NASA Langley s celebration of the Centennial of Controlled, Powered Flight by Orville and Wilbur Wright on December 17, 1903. The conference proceedings from NEW:Update 2003 reflect the Flight 100 theme by first providing a historic perspective on the remarkable accomplishments of the Wright Brothers. The historical perspective set the stag for insights into aeronautics and aerospace structures and materials now and into the future. The NEW:Update 2003 proceedings provide valuable resources to educators and students in the form of visuals, experiments and demonstrations for classes/labs at levels ranging from precollege through college education.

A Management Plan for Historic Bridges in Virginia : The 2017 Update

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2018-04-01

A Management Plan for Historic Bridges in Virginia, published in 2001, identified the management and treatment needs for 55 historic bridges in Virginia (i.e., bridges that were individually eligible for or listed on the National Register of Historic...

Flumes, historic water yield and climatological data for Tenderfoot Creek Experimental Forest, Montana

Treesearch

Phillip E. Farnes; Ward W. McCaughey; Katherine J. Hansen

1999-01-01

The objectives of this Research Joint Venture Agreement (RJVA) were to install and calibrate three flumes on Tenderfoot Creek Experimental Forest (TCEF) in central Montana; check calibration of the existing seven flumes on TCEF; estimate the influence of fire on water yields over the 400-year fire history period; and estimate back records of monthly temperature,...

What spatial scales are believable for climate model projections of sea surface temperature?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kwiatkowski, Lester; Halloran, Paul R.; Mumby, Peter J.; Stephenson, David B.

2014-09-01

Earth system models (ESMs) provide high resolution simulations of variables such as sea surface temperature (SST) that are often used in off-line biological impact models. Coral reef modellers have used such model outputs extensively to project both regional and global changes to coral growth and bleaching frequency. We assess model skill at capturing sub-regional climatologies and patterns of historical warming. This study uses an established wavelet-based spatial comparison technique to assess the skill of the coupled model intercomparison project phase 5 models to capture spatial SST patterns in coral regions. We show that models typically have medium to high skill at capturing climatological spatial patterns of SSTs within key coral regions, with model skill typically improving at larger spatial scales (≥4°). However models have much lower skill at modelling historical warming patters and are shown to often perform no better than chance at regional scales (e.g. Southeast Asian) and worse than chance at finer scales (<8°). Our findings suggest that output from current generation ESMs is not yet suitable for making sub-regional projections of change in coral bleaching frequency and other marine processes linked to SST warming.

The potential of historical hydrology in Switzerland

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wetter, Oliver

2017-11-01

Historical hydrology is based on data derived from historical written, pictorial and epigraphic documentary sources. It lies at the interface between hydrology and environmental history, using methodologies from both disciplines basically with the goal of significantly extending the instrumental measurement period with experience from the pre-instrumental past. Recently this field of research has gained increased recognition as a tool to improve current flood risk estimations when EU guidelines regulated by law the quantitative consideration of previous floods.1 Awareness to consider pre-instrumental experience in flood risk analysis seems to have risen at the level of local and federal authorities in Switzerland as well. The 2011 Fukushima catastrophe probably fostered this rethinking process, when pressure from the media, society and politics as well as the regulations of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) forced the authorities to reassess the current flood risk analysis for Swiss nuclear power plants. In 2015 a historical hydrological study was commissioned by the Federal Office for the Environment (FOEN) to assess the magnitudes of pre-instrumental Aare River flood discharges, including the most important tributaries (the Saane, Emme, Reuss and Limmat rivers). The results of the historical hydrological study serve now as the basis for the main study, EXAR (commissioned under the lead of FOEN in cooperation with the Swiss Nuclear Safety Inspectorate (ENSI), the Swiss Federal Office of Energy (SFOE), the Federal Office for Civil Protection (FOCP), and the Federal Office of Meteorology and Climatology (MeteoSwiss)), which combines historical and climatological analysis with statistical approaches and mathematical models with the goal of better understanding the hazards and possible interactions that can be caused by extreme flood events. In a second phase the catchment of the River Rhine will be targeted as well. More recently several local historical hydrological studies of smaller catchments have been requested by the responsible local authorities. The course for further publicly requested historical hydrological analysis seems thus to have been set. This paper therefore intends to discuss the potential of historical hydrological analysis, with a focus on the specific situation in Switzerland. 1Guideline 2007/60/EG of the European Parliament and Council from 23 October 2007 on assessment and management of flood risks, Official Journal of the European Union, L 288, 27-34, Brussels, 2007.

The new portfolio of global precipitation data products of the Global Precipitation Climatology Centre suitable to assess and quantify the global water cycle and resources

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schneider, Udo; Ziese, Markus; Meyer-Christoffer, Anja; Finger, Peter; Rustemeier, Elke; Becker, Andreas

2016-10-01

Precipitation plays an important role in the global energy and water cycle. Accurate knowledge of precipitation amounts reaching the land surface is of special importance for fresh water assessment and management related to land use, agriculture and hydrology, incl. risk reduction of flood and drought. High interest in long-term precipitation analyses arises from the needs to assess climate change and its impacts on all spatial scales. In this framework, the Global Precipitation Climatology Centre (GPCC) has been established in 1989 on request of the World Meteorological Organization (WMO). It is operated by Deutscher Wetterdienst (DWD, National Meteorological Service of Germany) as a German contribution to the World Climate Research Programme (WCRP). This paper provides information on the most recent update of GPCC's gridded data product portfolio including example use cases.

A systematic approach to synoptic tornado climatology of Hungary for the recent years (1996 2001) based on official damage reports

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Szilárd, Sárközi

2007-02-01

Due to the significant amount of severe storm damage from the mid 1990s, a practical need has arisen for updating risk assessment. For reliable and systematic sampling of events, data acquisition has been arranged through the disaster management official body using a pyramidal national coverage. Post-analysis, including its meteorological part, proceeds in a GIS environment. This paper focuses specifically on damaging tornadoes, since those are the most violent and best-documented phenomena. Different statistics are calculated and explained, such as seasonal, diurnal and magnitude distributions. Spatial occurrence and features are mapped. A complete synoptic climatology is given by typifying the generating conditions and categorizing events into certain classes, while discussing the role of the Carpathian Basin. In the end a conceptual issue in connection with self-similarity is raised for further discussion.

Risk assessment of tropical cyclone rainfall flooding in the Delaware River Basin

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lu, P.; Lin, N.; Smith, J. A.; Emanuel, K.

2016-12-01

Rainfall-induced inland flooding is a leading cause of death, injury, and property damage from tropical cyclones (TCs). In the context of climate change, it has been shown that extreme precipitation from TCs is likely to increase during the 21st century. Assessing the long-term risk of inland flooding associated with landfalling TCs is therefore an important task. Standard risk assessment techniques, which are based on observations from rain gauges and stream gauges, are not broadly applicable to TC induced flooding, since TCs are rare, extreme events with very limited historical observations at any specific location. Also, rain gauges and stream gauges can hardly capture the complex spatial variation of TC rainfall and flooding. Furthermore, the utility of historically based assessments is compromised by climate change. Regional dynamical downscaling models can resolve many features of TC precipitation. In terms of risk assessment, however, it is computationally demanding to run such models to obtain long-term climatology of TC induced flooding. Here we apply a computationally efficient climatological-hydrological method to assess the risk of inland flooding associated with landfalling TCs. It includes: 1) a deterministic TC climatology modeling method to generate large numbers of synthetic TCs with physically correlated characteristics (i.e., track, intensity, size) under observed and projected climates; 2) a simple physics-based tropical cyclone rainfall model which is able to simulate rainfall fields associated with each synthetic storm; 3) a hydrologic modeling system that takes in rainfall fields to simulate flood peaks over an entire drainage basin. We will present results of this method applied to the Delaware River Basin in the mid-Atlantic US.

Enhanced mesoscale climate projections in TAR and AR5 IPCC scenarios: a case study in a Mediterranean climate (Araucanía Region, south central Chile).

PubMed

Orrego, R; Abarca-Del-Río, R; Ávila, A; Morales, L

2016-01-01

Climate change scenarios are computed on a large scale, not accounting for local variations presented in historical data and related to human scale. Based on historical records, we validate a baseline (1962-1990) and correct the bias of A2 and B2 regional projections for the end of twenty-first century (2070-2100) issued from a high resolution dynamical downscaled (using PRECIS mesoscale model, hereinafter DGF-PRECIS) of Hadley GCM from the IPCC 3rd Assessment Report (TAR). This is performed for the Araucanía Region (Chile; 37°-40°S and 71°-74°W) using two different bias correction methodologies. Next, we study high-resolution precipitations to find monthly patterns such as seasonal variations, rainfall months, and the geographical effect on these two scenarios. Finally, we compare the TAR projections with those from the recent Assessment Report 5 (AR5) to find regional precipitation patterns and update the Chilean `projection. To show the effects of climate change projections, we compute the rainfall climatology for the Araucanía Region, including the impact of ENSO cycles (El Niño and La Niña events). The corrected climate projection from the high-resolution dynamical downscaled model of the TAR database (DGF-PRECIS) show annual precipitation decreases: B2 (-19.19 %, -287 ± 42 mm) and A2 (-43.38 %, -655 ± 27.4 mm per year. Furthermore, both projections increase the probability of lower rainfall months (lower than 100 mm per month) to 64.2 and 72.5 % for B2 and A2, respectively.

Enhanced mesoscale climate projections in TAR and AR5 IPCC scenarios: a case study in a Mediterranean climate (Araucanía Region, south central Chile)

DOE PAGES

Orrego, R.; Abarca-del-Rio, R.; Avila, A.; ...

2016-09-28

Here, climate change scenarios are computed on a large scale, not accounting for local variations presented in historical data and related to human scale. Based on historical records, we validate a baseline (1962–1990) and correct the bias of A2 and B2 regional projections for the end of twenty-first century (2070–2100) issued from a high resolution dynamical downscaled (using PRECIS mesoscale model, hereinafter DGF-PRECIS) of Hadley GCM from the IPCC 3rd Assessment Report (TAR). This is performed for the Araucanía Region (Chile; 37°–40°S and 71°–74°W) using two different bias correction methodologies. Next, we study high-resolution precipitations to find monthly patterns suchmore » as seasonal variations, rainfall months, and the geographical effect on these two scenarios. Finally, we compare the TAR projections with those from the recent Assessment Report 5 (AR5) to find regional precipitation patterns and update the Chilean `projection. To show the effects of climate change projections, we compute the rainfall climatology for the Araucanía Region, including the impact of ENSO cycles (El Niño and La Niña events). The corrected climate projection from the high-resolution dynamical downscaled model of the TAR database (DGF-PRECIS) show annual precipitation decreases: B2 (-19.19 %, -287 ± 42 mm) and A2 (-43.38 %, -655 ± 27.4 mm per year. Furthermore, both projections increase the probability of lower rainfall months (lower than 100 mm per month) to 64.2 and 72.5 % for B2 and A2, respectively.« less

Enhanced mesoscale climate projections in TAR and AR5 IPCC scenarios: a case study in a Mediterranean climate (Araucanía Region, south central Chile)

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Orrego, R.; Abarca-del-Rio, R.; Avila, A.

Here, climate change scenarios are computed on a large scale, not accounting for local variations presented in historical data and related to human scale. Based on historical records, we validate a baseline (1962–1990) and correct the bias of A2 and B2 regional projections for the end of twenty-first century (2070–2100) issued from a high resolution dynamical downscaled (using PRECIS mesoscale model, hereinafter DGF-PRECIS) of Hadley GCM from the IPCC 3rd Assessment Report (TAR). This is performed for the Araucanía Region (Chile; 37°–40°S and 71°–74°W) using two different bias correction methodologies. Next, we study high-resolution precipitations to find monthly patterns suchmore » as seasonal variations, rainfall months, and the geographical effect on these two scenarios. Finally, we compare the TAR projections with those from the recent Assessment Report 5 (AR5) to find regional precipitation patterns and update the Chilean `projection. To show the effects of climate change projections, we compute the rainfall climatology for the Araucanía Region, including the impact of ENSO cycles (El Niño and La Niña events). The corrected climate projection from the high-resolution dynamical downscaled model of the TAR database (DGF-PRECIS) show annual precipitation decreases: B2 (-19.19 %, -287 ± 42 mm) and A2 (-43.38 %, -655 ± 27.4 mm per year. Furthermore, both projections increase the probability of lower rainfall months (lower than 100 mm per month) to 64.2 and 72.5 % for B2 and A2, respectively.« less

Slaves, Women, and War! Engaging Middle School Students in Historical Empathy for Enduring Understanding

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Endacott, Jason L.; Pelekanos, Christina

2015-01-01

Research has demonstrated the benefits of using historical empathy in history classrooms to encourage historical inquiry and understanding. This article chronicles the experiences of one middle school teacher as she integrates an updated theoretical and practical model of historical empathy into an existing instructional unit on Ancient Athens to…

Methods for computing water-quality loads at sites in the U.S. Geological Survey National Water Quality Network

USGS Publications Warehouse

Lee, Casey J.; Murphy, Jennifer C.; Crawford, Charles G.; Deacon, Jeffrey R.

2017-10-24

The U.S. Geological Survey publishes information on concentrations and loads of water-quality constituents at 111 sites across the United States as part of the U.S. Geological Survey National Water Quality Network (NWQN). This report details historical and updated methods for computing water-quality loads at NWQN sites. The primary updates to historical load estimation methods include (1) an adaptation to methods for computing loads to the Gulf of Mexico; (2) the inclusion of loads computed using the Weighted Regressions on Time, Discharge, and Season (WRTDS) method; and (3) the inclusion of loads computed using continuous water-quality data. Loads computed using WRTDS and continuous water-quality data are provided along with those computed using historical methods. Various aspects of method updates are evaluated in this report to help users of water-quality loading data determine which estimation methods best suit their particular application.

65 Years of Reprocessed GLDAS Version 2.0 Data and Their Exploration Using the NASA GES DISC Giovanni

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Rui, Hualan; Vollmer, B.; Teng, W.; Beaudoing, H.; Rodell, M.; Silberstein, D.

2015-01-01

GLDAS-2.0 data have been reprocessed with updated Princeton meteorological forcing data within the Land Information System (LIS) Version 7, and temporal coverage have been extended to 1948-2012.Global Land Data Assimilation System Version 2 (GLDAS-2) has two components: GLDAS-2.0: entirely forced with the Princeton meteorological forcing data GLDAS-2.1: forced with atmospheric analysis and observation-based data after 2001In order to create more climatologically consistent data sets, NASA GSFC's Hydrological Sciences Laboratory (HSL) has recently reprocessed the GLDAS-2.0, by using updated Princeton meteorological forcing data within the LIS Version 7.GLDAS-2.0 data and data services are provided at NASA GES DISC Hydrology Data and Information Services Center (HDISC), in collaboration with HSL.

Character change of New England snow

USGS Publications Warehouse

Huntington, T.G.; Hodgkins, G.A.; Keim, B.D.; Dudley, R.W.

2004-01-01

The annual ratio of snow to total precipitation (S/P) for 11 out of 21 US Historical Climatology Network (USHCN) sites in New England decreased significantly from 1949 through 2000. One possible explanation for the observed decrease in S/P ratio is that their temperature increased in New England during the 20th century. The results are consistent with published reports indicating lengthening of the growing season in New England.

Acoustic Impact of Short-Term Ocean Variability in the Okinawa Trough

DTIC Science & Technology

2010-01-20

nature run: Generalized Digital Environment Model ( GDEM ) 3.0 climatologyfl], Modular Ocean Data Assimilation System (MODAS) synthetic profiles[2], Navy...potentially preferred for a particular class of applications, and thus a possible source of sound speed for estimates of acoustic transmission. Three, GDEM ...MODAS, and NCODA, are statistical products, and the other three are dynamic forecasts from NCOM. GDEM is a climatology based solely on historical

Has climate change shifted US maize planting times?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Butler, E.; Stine, A.; Huybers, P.

2012-12-01

Global warming has been accompanied by an earlier onset of spring phenological events across a range of ecosystems. However, the degree to which humans have adapted planting schedules to a changing climate remains an open question; the leading hypotheses for earlier planting are improved hardiness of cultivars and farming equipment. Here we examine the relationship between historical temperature and precipitation from 549 weather stations from the United States Historical Climatology Network (USHCN) with planting schedules from 20 states in the United States Department of Agriculture/National Agriculture Statistics Service (USDA/NASS) database. We construct an empirical model to relate yearly weather conditions to predict planting dates and compare this to the spatial distribution of climate conditions and mean planting times. Evidence for a relationship between climate and planting schedules indicates that planting schedules for US maize have been adapted to yearly variations and overall changes in climatology. As one might expect, hotter temperatures lead to earlier plantings while greater precipitation leads to later planting. These findings serve to indicate extant adaptation between US farmers and climate change, and will aid in forecasting future shifts to planting schedules as climate continues to change. Furthermore, the statistical model should also be useful for estimating planting times for states and years for which records do not otherwise exist.

A scale self-adapting segmentation approach and knowledge transfer for automatically updating land use/cover change databases using high spatial resolution images

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Zhihua; Yang, Xiaomei; Lu, Chen; Yang, Fengshuo

2018-07-01

Automatic updating of land use/cover change (LUCC) databases using high spatial resolution images (HSRI) is important for environmental monitoring and policy making, especially for coastal areas that connect the land and coast and that tend to change frequently. Many object-based change detection methods are proposed, especially those combining historical LUCC with HSRI. However, the scale parameter(s) segmenting the serial temporal images, which directly determines the average object size, is hard to choose without experts' intervention. And the samples transferred from historical LUCC also need experts' intervention to avoid insufficient or wrong samples. With respect to the scale parameter(s) choosing, a Scale Self-Adapting Segmentation (SSAS) approach based on the exponential sampling of a scale parameter and location of the local maximum of a weighted local variance was proposed to determine the scale selection problem when segmenting images constrained by LUCC for detecting changes. With respect to the samples transferring, Knowledge Transfer (KT), a classifier trained on historical images with LUCC and applied in the classification of updated images, was also proposed. Comparison experiments were conducted in a coastal area of Zhujiang, China, using SPOT 5 images acquired in 2005 and 2010. The results reveal that (1) SSAS can segment images more effectively without intervention of experts. (2) KT can also reach the maximum accuracy of samples transfer without experts' intervention. Strategy SSAS + KT would be a good choice if the temporal historical image and LUCC match, and the historical image and updated image are obtained from the same resource.

Global Seasonal Climatologies of Ocean Chlorophyll: Blending In situ and Satellite Data for the CZCS Era

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Gregg, Watson W.; Conkright, Margarita E.

1999-01-01

The historical archives of in situ (National Oceanographic Data Center) and satellite (Coastal Zone Color Scanner) chlorophyll data were combined using the blended analysis method of Reynolds [1988] in an attempt to construct an improved climatological seasonal representation of global chlorophyll distributions. The results of the blended analysis differed dramatically from the CZCS representation: global chlorophyll estimates increased 8-35% in the blended analysis depending upon season. Regional differences were even larger, up to 140% in the equatorial Indian Ocean in summer (during the southwest monsoon). Tropical Pacific chlorophyll values increased 25-41%. The results suggested that the CZCS generally underestimates chlorophyll. Regional and seasonal differences in the blended analysis were sufficiently large as to produce a different representation of global chlorophyll distributions than otherwise inferred from CZCS data alone. Analyses of primary production and biogeochemical cycles may be substantially impacted by these results.

Temperature impacts on the water year 2014 drought in California

USGS Publications Warehouse

Shukla, Shraddhanand; Safeeq, Mohammad; AghaKouchak, Amir; Guan, Kaiyu; Funk, Christopher C.

2015-01-01

California is experiencing one of the worst droughts on record. Here we use a hydrological model and risk assessment framework to understand the influence of temperature on the water year (WY) 2014 drought in California and examine the probability that this drought would have been less severe if temperatures resembled the historical climatology. Our results indicate that temperature played an important role in exacerbating the WY 2014 drought severity. We found that if WY 2014 temperatures resembled the 1916–2012 climatology, there would have been at least an 86% chance that winter snow water equivalent and spring-summer soil moisture and runoff deficits would have been less severe than the observed conditions. We also report that the temperature forecast skill in California for the important seasons of winter and spring is negligible, beyond a lead-time of one month, which we postulate might hinder skillful drought prediction in California.

Fitting Formulae and Constraints for the Existence of S-type and P-type Habitable Zones in Binary Systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Zhaopeng; Cuntz, Manfred

2017-10-01

We derive fitting formulae for the quick determination of the existence of S-type and P-type habitable zones (HZs) in binary systems. Based on previous work, we consider the limits of the climatological HZ in binary systems (which sensitively depend on the system parameters) based on a joint constraint encompassing planetary orbital stability and a habitable region for a possible system planet. Additionally, we employ updated results on planetary climate models obtained by Kopparapu and collaborators. Our results are applied to four P-type systems (Kepler-34, Kepler-35, Kepler-413, and Kepler-1647) and two S-type systems (TrES-2 and KOI-1257). Our method allows us to gauge the existence of climatological HZs for these systems in a straightforward manner with detailed consideration of the observational uncertainties. Further applications may include studies of other existing systems as well as systems to be identified through future observational campaigns.

Fitting Formulae and Constraints for the Existence of S-type and P-type Habitable Zones in Binary Systems

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Wang Zhaopeng; Cuntz, Manfred, E-mail: zhaopeng.wang@mavs.uta.edu, E-mail: cuntz@uta.edu

We derive fitting formulae for the quick determination of the existence of S-type and P-type habitable zones (HZs) in binary systems. Based on previous work, we consider the limits of the climatological HZ in binary systems (which sensitively depend on the system parameters) based on a joint constraint encompassing planetary orbital stability and a habitable region for a possible system planet. Additionally, we employ updated results on planetary climate models obtained by Kopparapu and collaborators. Our results are applied to four P-type systems (Kepler-34, Kepler-35, Kepler-413, and Kepler-1647) and two S-type systems (TrES-2 and KOI-1257). Our method allows us tomore » gauge the existence of climatological HZs for these systems in a straightforward manner with detailed consideration of the observational uncertainties. Further applications may include studies of other existing systems as well as systems to be identified through future observational campaigns.« less

78 FR 67178 - Notice of Advisory Council on Historic Preservation Quarterly Business Meeting

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2013-11-08

... Historic Preservation Act E. Rightsizing Task Force Report F. Sustainability and Department of Defense... Award IV. Chairman's Report V. Historic Preservation Policy and Programs A. Building a More Inclusive... Foundation Report C. ACHP Office Relocation Update VIII. New Business A. District of Columbia Height Master...

4.4 Development of a 30-Year Soil Moisture Climatology for Situational Awareness and Public Health Applications

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Case, Jonathan L.; Zavodsky, Bradley T.; White, Kristopher D.; Bell, Jesse E.

2015-01-01

This paper provided a brief background on the work being done at NASA SPoRT and the CDC to create a soil moisture climatology over the CONUS at high spatial resolution, and to provide a valuable source of soil moisture information to the CDC for monitoring conditions that could favor the development of Valley Fever. The soil moisture climatology has multi-faceted applications for both the NOAA/NWS situational awareness in the areas of drought and flooding, and for the Public Health community. SPoRT plans to increase its interaction with the drought monitoring and Public Health communities by enhancing this testbed soil moisture anomaly product. This soil moisture climatology run will also serve as a foundation for upgrading the real-time (currently southeastern CONUS) SPoRT-LIS to a full CONUS domain based on LIS version 7 and incorporating real-time GVF data from the Suomi-NPP Visible Infrared Imaging Radiometer Suite (Vargas et al. 2013) into LIS-Noah. The upgraded SPoRT-LIS run will serve as a testbed proof-of-concept of a higher-resolution NLDAS-2 modeling member. The climatology run will be extended to near real-time using the NLDAS-2 meteorological forcing from 2011 to present. The fixed 1981-2010 climatology shall provide the soil moisture "normals" for the production of real-time soil moisture anomalies. SPoRT also envisions a web-mapping type of service in which an end-user could put in a request for either an historical or real-time soil moisture anomaly graph for a specified county (as exemplified by Figure 2) and/or for local and regional maps of soil moisture proxy percentiles. Finally, SPoRT seeks to assimilate satellite soil moisture data from the current Soil Moisture Ocean Salinity (SMOS; Blankenship et al. 2014) and the recently-launched NASA Soil Moisture Active Passive (SMAP; Entekhabi et al. 2010) missions, using the EnKF capability within LIS. The 9-km combined active radar and passive microwave retrieval product from SMAP (Das et al. 2011) has the potential to provide valuable information about the near-surface soil moisture state for improving land surface modeling output.

Observed Impacts. Chapter 19

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Rosenzweig, Cynthia

1999-01-01

Agricultural applications of El Nino forecasts are already underway in some countries and need to be evaluated or re-evaluated. For example, in Peru, El Nino forecasts have been incorporated into national planning for the agricultural sector, and areas planted with rice and cotton (cotton being the more drought-tolerant crop) are adjusted accordingly. How well are this and other such programs working? Such evaluations will contribute to the governmental and intergovernmental institutions, including the Inter-American Institute for Global Change Research and the US National Ocean and Atmospheric Agency that are fostering programs to aid the effective use of forecasts. This research involves expanding, deepening, and applying the understanding of physical climate to the fields of agronomy and social science; and the reciprocal understanding of crop growth and farm economics to climatology. Delivery of a regional climate forecast with no information about how the climate forecast was derived limits its effectiveness. Explanation of a region's major climate driving forces helps to place a seasonal forecast in context. Then, a useful approach is to show historical responses to previous El Nino events, and projections, with uncertainty intervals, of crop response from dynamic process crop growth models. Regional forecasts should be updated with real-time weather conditions. Since every El Nino event is different, it is important to track, report and advise on each new event as it unfolds.

A U.S. Wind Climatology: new tools to monitor wind trends across the contiguous United States

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Crouch, J.; Wallis, T. W.; Arndt, D.

2010-12-01

NOAA’s National Climatic Data Center has developed a new monthly and seasonal product to provide a spatially continuous wind climatology for the contiguous U.S. using NCEP reanalysis data. Surface wind observations are sparse over specific regions of the country, and are subject to many local effects. By utilizing the sigma .995 level of the reanalysis data we can monitor wind conditions and trends of the lower troposphere across the entire U.S. The wind data are interpolated from a 2.5 x 2.5 degree grid to 0.25 degrees to provide additional detail. Data are analyzed from January 1950 to the most current month. Monthly averaged winds and wind anomalies are calculated with respect to the 1971-2000 base period, and time series for each grid point show how regional winds have changed over the 60 year period of record. The goal of this new climatology product is to provide regional decision support for the emerging wind energy sector, in addition to others who are interested in the current state of wind conditions. The U.S. Department of Energy has outlined a plan for 20 percent of U.S. electricity production to be from wind by 2030, and having a temporally and spatially continuous wind dataset, updated on a monthly basis, will be beneficial to understanding wind trends nationwide.

European climate reconstructed for the past 500 years based on documentary and instrumental evidence

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wheeler, Dennis; Brazdil, Rudolf; Pfister, Christian

2010-05-01

European climate reconstructed for the past 500 years based on documentary and instrumental evidence Dennis Wheeler, Rudolf Brázdil, Christian Pfister and the Millennium project SG1 team The paper summarises the results of historical-climatological research conducted as part of the EU-funded 6th FP project MILLENNIUM the principal focus of which was the investigation of European climate during the past one thousand years (http://www.millenniumproject.net/). This project represents a major advance in bringing together, for the first time on such a scale, historical climatologists with other palaeoclimatological communities and climate modellers from many European countries. As part of MILLENNIUM, a sub-group (SG1) of historical climatologists from ten countries had the responsibility of collating and comprehensively analysing evidence from instrumental and documentary archives. This paper presents the main results of this undertaking but confines its attention to the study of the climate of the past 500 years and represents a summary of 10 themed papers submitted for a special issue of Climatic Change. They range across a variety of topics including newly-studied documentary data sources (e.g. early instrumental records, opening of the Stockholm harbour, ship log book data), temperature reconstructions for Central Europe, the Stockholm area and Mediterranean based on different types of documentary evidence, the application of standard paleoclimatological approaches to reconstructions based on index series derived from the documentary data, the influence of circulation dynamics on January-April climate , a comparison of reconstructions based on documentary data with the model runs (ECHO-G), a study of the quality of instrumental data in climate reconstructions, a 500-year flood chronology in Europe, and selected disastrous European windstorms and their reflection in documentary evidence and human memory. Finally, perspectives of historical-climatological research and future challenges and directions in this rapidly-developing and important field are presented together with an overview of the potential of documentary sources for climatic reconstructions.

Effects of Real-Time NASA Vegetation Data on Model Forecasts of Severe Weather

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Case, Jonathan L.; Bell, Jordan R.; LaFontaine, Frank J.; Peters-Lidard, Christa D.

2012-01-01

The NASA Short-term Prediction Research and Transition (SPoRT) Center has developed a Greenness Vegetation Fraction (GVF) dataset, which is updated daily using swaths of Normalized Difference Vegetation Index data from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) data aboard the NASA-EOS Aqua and Terra satellites. NASA SPoRT started generating daily real-time GVF composites at 1-km resolution over the Continental United States beginning 1 June 2010. A companion poster presentation (Bell et al.) primarily focuses on impact results in an offline configuration of the Noah land surface model (LSM) for the 2010 warm season, comparing the SPoRT/MODIS GVF dataset to the current operational monthly climatology GVF available within the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) and Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) models. This paper/presentation primarily focuses on individual case studies of severe weather events to determine the impacts and possible improvements by using the real-time, high-resolution SPoRT-MODIS GVFs in place of the coarser-resolution NCEP climatological GVFs in model simulations. The NASA-Unified WRF (NU-WRF) modeling system is employed to conduct the sensitivity simulations of individual events. The NU-WRF is an integrated modeling system based on the Advanced Research WRF dynamical core that is designed to represents aerosol, cloud, precipitation, and land processes at satellite-resolved scales in a coupled simulation environment. For this experiment, the coupling between the NASA Land Information System (LIS) and the WRF model is utilized to measure the impacts of the daily SPoRT/MODIS versus the monthly NCEP climatology GVFs. First, a spin-up run of the LIS is integrated for two years using the Noah LSM to ensure that the land surface fields reach an equilibrium state on the 4-km grid mesh used. Next, the spin-up LIS is run in two separate modes beginning on 1 June 2010, one continuing with the climatology GVFs while the other uses the daily SPoRT/MODIS GVFs. Finally, snapshots of the LIS land surface fields are used to initialize two different simulations of the NU-WRF, one running with climatology LIS and GVFs, and the other running with experimental LIS and NASA/SPoRT GVFs. In this paper/presentation, case study results will be highlighted in regions with significant differences in GVF between the NCEP climatology and SPoRT product during severe weather episodes.

78 FR 39300 - Notice of Advisory Council on Historic Preservation Quarterly Business Meeting

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2013-07-01

... V. Chairman's Report VI. ACHP Management Issues A. ACHP FY 2013 and 2014 Budget B. Alumni Foundation Report C. ACHP Office Relocation Update VII. Historic Preservation Policy and Programs A. Building a More.... Planning for 50th Anniversary of the National Historic Preservation Act D. Rightsizing Task Force Report E...

The hard winter of 1880-1881: Climatological context and communication via a Laura Ingalls Wilder narrative

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Boustead, Barbara E.

The Hard Winter of 1880-1881 was featured in the Laura Ingalls Wilder historical fiction account, The Long Winter, as well as in several town histories across the region. Both meteorological records and historical accounts indicate that the winter was particularly long, snowy, and cold. The question of how "hard" a winter is for a given location depends on the climatological context, which relies on an objective characterization of winter severity. The Accumulated Winter Season Severity Index (AWSSI) allows comparison of the winter of 1880-1881 among sites across the region, as well as in the context of the period of record, to quantify its severity. Additionally, investigating the impacts of both the El Nino/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) in the central United States provides context for the influence of both a strongly negative NAO and an El Nino event during the winter of 1880-1881. With an understanding of the climatological factors influencing the Hard Winter, along with the context for its severity, a more thorough analysis then was conducted to quantify and describe its severity. The connection of the winter of 1880-1881 to a popular book written by an author who is a cultural icon provides a natural vehicle with which to communicate weather and climate concepts to multiple non-technical audiences. The communication of complex weather and climate concepts is a well-documented challenge. One method to bridge between science concepts and public understanding is to relate those concepts to familiar subjects and stories, including Laura Ingalls Wilder's books. A narrative constructed around the books, particularly The Long Winter, provides a means of audience engagement and interest in weather- and climate-related topics, which was at least partially quantified by surveying audiences of the narrative. Overall, the scientific background, combined with a familiar narrative voice, provides a means to transmit weather and climate.

CDC Releases Report on 30-Year Low in Youth Homicide Rates

MedlinePlus

... CDC Newsroom Share Compartir This page is a historical archive and is no longer maintained. For current ... site? Print Updates Subscribe Listen This is a Historical Document Content source: Centers for Disease Control and ...

United States Historical Climatology Network (US HCN) monthly temperature and precipitation data

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Daniels, R.C.; Boden, T.A.; Easterling, D.R.

1996-01-11

This document describes a database containing monthly temperature and precipitation data for 1221 stations in the contiguous United States. This network of stations, known as the United States Historical Climatology Network (US HCN), and the resulting database were compiled by the National Climatic Data Center, Asheville, North Carolina. These data represent the best available data from the United States for analyzing long-term climate trends on a regional scale. The data for most stations extend through December 31, 1994, and a majority of the station records are serially complete for at least 80 years. Unlike many data sets that have beenmore » used in past climate studies, these data have been adjusted to remove biases introduced by station moves, instrument changes, time-of-observation differences, and urbanization effects. These monthly data are available free of charge as a numeric data package (NDP) from the Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis Center. The NDP includes this document and 27 machine-readable data files consisting of supporting data files, a descriptive file, and computer access codes. This document describes how the stations in the US HCN were selected and how the data were processed, defines limitations and restrictions of the data, describes the format and contents of the magnetic media, and provides reprints of literature that discuss the editing and adjustment techniques used in the US HCN.« less

Situational Lightning Climatologies for Central Florida: Phase V

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Bauman, William H., III

2011-01-01

The AMU added three years of data to the POR from the previous work resulting in a 22-year POR for the warm season months from 1989-2010. In addition to the flow regime stratification, moisture and stability stratifications were added to separate more active from less active lighting days within the same flow regime. The parameters used for moisture and stability stratifications were PWAT and TI which were derived from sounding data at four Florida radiosonde sites. Lightning data consisted of NLDN CG lightning flashes within 30 NM of each airfield. The AMU increased the number of airfields from nine to thirty-six which included the SLF, CCAFS, PAFB and thirty-three airfields across Florida. The NWS MLB requested the AMU calculate lightning climatologies for additional airfields that they support as a backup to NWS TBW which was then expanded to include airfields supported by NWS JAX and NWS MFL. The updated climatologies of lightning probabilities are based on revised synoptic-scale flow regimes over the Florida peninsula (Lambert 2007) for 5-, 10-, 20- and 30-NM radius range rings around the thirty-six airfields in 1-, 3- and 6-hour increments. The lightning, flow regime, moisture and stability data were processed in S-PLUS software using scripts written by the AMU to automate much of the data processing. The S-PLUS data files were exported to Excel to allow the files to be combined in Excel Workbooks for easier data handling and to create the tables and charts for the Gill. The AMU revised the Gill developed in the previous phase (Bauman 2009) with the new data and provided users with an updated HTML tool to display and manipulate the data and corresponding charts. The tool can be used with most web browsers and is computer operating system independent. The AMU delivered two Gills - one with just the PWAT stratification and one with both the PWAT and TI stratifications due to insufficient data in some of the PWATITI stratification combinations. This will allow the forecasters to choose a moisture-only or moisture/stability stratification depending on the flow regime and available data.

A Management Plan for Historic Bridges in Virginia: Update / Scoping Phase.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2014-04-01

"The Management Plan for Historic Bridges in Virginia, completed in 2001 (hereinafter the 2001 Management Plan), : identified the management and treatment needs for 54 bridges in Virginia that were individually eligible for or listed on the National ...

Analysis of shifts in the spatial distribution of vegetation due to climate change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

del Jesus, Manuel; Díez-Sierra, Javier; Rinaldo, Andrea; Rodríguez-Iturbe, Ignacio

2017-04-01

Climate change will modify the statistical regime of most climatological variables, inducing changes on average values and in the natural variability of environmental variables. These environmental variables may be used to explain the spatial distribution of functional types of vegetation in arid and semiarid watersheds through the use of plant optimization theories. Therefore, plant optimization theories may be used to approximate the response of the spatial distribution of vegetation to a changing climate. Predicting changes in these spatial distributions is important to understand how climate change may affect vegetated ecosystems, but it is also important for hydrological engineering applications where climate change effects on water availability are assessed. In this work, Maximum Entropy Production (MEP) is used as the plant optimization theory that describes the spatial distribution of functional types of vegetation. Current climatological conditions are obtained from direct observations from meteorological stations. Climate change effects are evaluated for different temporal horizons and different climate change scenarios using numerical model outputs from the CMIP5. Rainfall estimates are downscaled by means of a stochastic point process used to model rainfall. The study is carried out for the Rio Salado watershed, located within the Sevilleta LTER site, in New Mexico (USA). Results show the expected changes in the spatial distribution of vegetation and allow to evaluate the expected variability of the changes. The updated spatial distributions allow to evaluate the vegetated ecosystem health and its updated resilience. These results can then be used to inform the hydrological modeling part of climate change assessments analyzing water availability in arid and semiarid watersheds.

Advances in land modeling of KIAPS based on the Noah Land Surface Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Koo, Myung-Seo; Baek, Sunghye; Seol, Kyung-Hee; Cho, Kyoungmi

2017-08-01

As of 2013, the Noah Land Surface Model (LSM) version 2.7.1 was implemented in a new global model being developed at the Korea Institute of Atmospheric Prediction Systems (KIAPS). This land surface scheme is further refined in two aspects, by adding new physical processes and by updating surface input parameters. Thus, the treatment of glacier land, sea ice, and snow cover are addressed more realistically. Inconsistencies in the amount of absorbed solar flux at ground level by the land surface and radiative processes are rectified. In addition, new parameters are available by using 1-km land cover data, which had usually not been possible at a global scale. Land surface albedo/emissivity climatology is newly created using Moderate-Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) satellitebased data and adjusted parameterization. These updates have been applied to the KIAPS-developed model and generally provide a positive impact on near-surface weather forecasting.

Newly Digitized Historical Climate Data of the German Bight and the Southern Baltic Sea Coasts

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Röhrbein, Dörte; Tinz, Birger; von Storch, Hans

2015-04-01

The detection of historical climate information plays an important role with regard to the discussion on climate change, particularly on storminess. The German Meteorological Service houses huge archives of historical handwritten journals of weather observations. A considerable number of original observation sheets from stations along the coast of the German Bight and the southern Baltic Sea exists which has been until recently almost unnoticed. These stations are called signal stations and are positioned close to the shore. However, for this region meteorological observation data of 128 stations exist from 1877 to 1999 and are partly digitized. In this study we show an analysis of firstly newly digitized wind and surface air pressure data of 15 stations from 1877 to 1939 and we also present a case study of the storm surge at the coast of the southern Baltic Sea in December 1913. The data are quality controlled by formal, climatological, temporal and consistency checks. It is shown that these historical climate data are usable in consistency and quality for further investigations on climate change, e.g. as input for regional and global reanalysis.

The Development of a Long-Term, Continually Updated Global Solar Resource at 10 km Resolution: Preliminary Results From Test Processing and Continuing Plans

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Stackhouse, P.; Perez, R.; Sengupta, M.; Knapp, K.; Cox, Stephen; Mikovitz, J. Colleen; Zhang, T.; Hemker, K.; Schlemmer, J.; Kivalov, S.

2014-01-01

Background: Considering the likelihood of global climatic weather pattern changes and the global competition for energy resources, there is an increasing need to provide improved and continuously updated global Earth surface solar resource information. Toward this end, a project was funded under the NASA Applied Science program involving the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) Langley Research Center (LaRC), National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), the State University of New York/Albany (SUNY) and the NOAA National Climatic Data Center (NCDC) to provide NREL with a global long-term advanced global solar mapping production system for improved depiction of historical solar resources and variability and to provide a mechanism for continual updates of solar resource information. This new production system is made possible by the efforts of NOAA and NASA to completely reprocess the International Satellite Cloud Climatology Project (ISCCP) data set that provides satellite visible and infrared radiances together with retrieved cloud and surface properties on a 3-hourly basis beginning from July 1983. The old version of the ISCCP data provided this information for all the world TMs available geosynchronous satellite systems and NOAA TMs AVHRR data sets at a 30 km effective resolution. This new version aims to provide a new and improved satellite calibration at an effective 10 km resolution. Thus, working with SUNY, NASA will develop and test an improved production system that will enable NREL to continually update the Earth TM solar resource. Objective and Methods: In this presentation, we provide a general overview of this project together with samples of the new solar irradiance mapped data products and comparisons to surface measurements at various locations across the world. An assessment of the solar resource values relative to calibration uncertainty and assumptions are presented. Errors resulting assumptions in snow cover and background aerosol amount are described. These uncertainties and the statistics of the agreement between the measurements and new satellite estimates are also reviewed and compared to other solar data sets. Findings and Conclusions: Preliminary results show that insolation values show an overall small bias (less than 1%) with a RMS of 25% relative to surface measurements. Exceptions at certain locations were found and will be discussed relative to the uncertainties identified above. Lastly, we will identify the next steps in the development and improvement of this production system including some accuracy goals in preparation for ultimate delivery to NREL.

Climatological Processing and Product Development for the TRMM Ground Validation Program

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Marks, D. A.; Kulie, M. S.; Robinson, M.; Silberstein, D. S.; Wolff, D. B.; Ferrier, B. S.; Amitai, E.; Fisher, B.; Wang, J.; Augustine, D.;

SCSPOD14, a South China Sea physical oceanographic dataset derived from in situ measurements during 1919-2014.

PubMed

Zeng, Lili; Wang, Dongxiao; Chen, Ju; Wang, Weiqiang; Chen, Rongyu

2016-04-26

In addition to the oceanographic data available for the South China Sea (SCS) from the World Ocean Database (WOD) and Array for Real-time Geostrophic Oceanography (Argo) floats, a suite of observations has been made by the South China Sea Institute of Oceanology (SCSIO) starting from the 1970s. Here, we assemble a SCS Physical Oceanographic Dataset (SCSPOD14) based on 51,392 validated temperature and salinity profiles collected from these three datasets for the period 1919-2014. A gridded dataset of climatological monthly mean temperature, salinity, and mixed and isothermal layer depth derived from an objective analysis of profiles is also presented. Comparisons with the World Ocean Atlas (WOA) and IFREMER/LOS Mixed Layer Depth Climatology confirm the reliability of the new dataset. This unique dataset offers an invaluable baseline perspective on the thermodynamic processes, spatial and temporal variability of water masses, and basin-scale and mesoscale oceanic structures in the SCS. We anticipate improvements and regular updates to this product as more observations become available from existing and future in situ networks.

Aerosol-driven increase in Arctic sea ice over the middle of the twentieth century

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gagné, Marie-Ève; Fyfe, John C.; Gillett, Nathan P.; Polyakov, Igor V.; Flato, Gregory M.

2017-07-01

Updated observational data sets without climatological infilling show that there was an increase in sea ice concentration in the eastern Arctic between 1950 and 1975, contrary to earlier climatology infilled observational data sets that show weak interannual variations during that time period. We here present climate model simulations showing that this observed sea ice concentration increase was primarily a consequence of cooling induced by increasing anthropogenic aerosols and natural forcing. Indeed, sulphur dioxide emissions, which lead to the formation of sulphate aerosols, peaked around 1980 causing a sharp increase in the burden of sulphate between the 1950s and 1970s; but since 1980, the burden has dropped. Our climate model simulations show that the cooling contribution of aerosols offset the warming effect of increasing greenhouse gases over the midtwentieth century resulting in the expansion of the Arctic sea ice cover. These results challenge the perception that Arctic sea ice extent was unperturbed by human influence until the 1970s, suggesting instead that it exhibited earlier forced multidecadal variations, with implications for our understanding of impacts and adaptation in human and natural Arctic systems.

SCSPOD14, a South China Sea physical oceanographic dataset derived from in situ measurements during 1919–2014

PubMed Central

Zeng, Lili; Wang, Dongxiao; Chen, Ju; Wang, Weiqiang; Chen, Rongyu

2016-01-01

In addition to the oceanographic data available for the South China Sea (SCS) from the World Ocean Database (WOD) and Array for Real-time Geostrophic Oceanography (Argo) floats, a suite of observations has been made by the South China Sea Institute of Oceanology (SCSIO) starting from the 1970s. Here, we assemble a SCS Physical Oceanographic Dataset (SCSPOD14) based on 51,392 validated temperature and salinity profiles collected from these three datasets for the period 1919–2014. A gridded dataset of climatological monthly mean temperature, salinity, and mixed and isothermal layer depth derived from an objective analysis of profiles is also presented. Comparisons with the World Ocean Atlas (WOA) and IFREMER/LOS Mixed Layer Depth Climatology confirm the reliability of the new dataset. This unique dataset offers an invaluable baseline perspective on the thermodynamic processes, spatial and temporal variability of water masses, and basin-scale and mesoscale oceanic structures in the SCS. We anticipate improvements and regular updates to this product as more observations become available from existing and future in situ networks. PMID:27116565

Attribution of extreme precipitation in the lower reaches of the Yangtze River during May 2016

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, Chunxiang; Tian, Qinhua; Yu, Rong; Zhou, Baiquan; Xia, Jiangjiang; Burke, Claire; Dong, Buwen; Tett, Simon F. B.; Freychet, Nicolas; Lott, Fraser; Ciavarella, Andrew

2018-01-01

May 2016 was the third wettest May on record since 1961 over central eastern China based on station observations, with total monthly rainfall 40% more than the climatological mean for 1961-2013. Accompanying disasters such as waterlogging, landslides and debris flow struck part of the lower reaches of the Yangtze River. Causal influence of anthropogenic forcings on this event is investigated using the newly updated Met Office Hadley Centre system for attribution of extreme weather and climate events. Results indicate that there is a significant increase in May 2016 rainfall in model simulations relative to the climatological period, but this increase is largely attributable to natural variability. El Niño years have been found to be correlated with extreme rainfall in the Yangtze River region in previous studies—the strong El Niño of 2015-2016 may account for the extreme precipitation event in 2016. However, on smaller spatial scales we find that anthropogenic forcing has likely played a role in increasing the risk of extreme rainfall to the north of the Yangtze and decreasing it to the south.

State of New Mexico wind site survey loan program

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Reynolds, R.D.

1981-12-01

This pilot project made available to the citizens of New Mexico, interested in wind energy, the loan of a wind data accumulator for one year so that they could determine if their site was suitable for the installation of a wind generator prior to their investment in a wind system. A nominal fee of $35.00 was charged for a year to help defray maintenance expenses. The Physical Science Laboratory meteorologist installed a 3-cup anemometer usually on a 30' telescoping mast at each site after looking over the exposure and making recommendations to the Site Owner. The electronic odometer was eithermore » housed inside a house or mounted to the mast in its lockable case. There are a total of 21 sets for loan. The site owners read their data once per week and mailed a data card in to the Physical Science Laboratory. The annual wind climatology for each site was computed and the owners advised of the suitability of their site for wind generation of electricity. An updated wind climatology for New Mexico was prepared utilizing this new data.« less

An updated checklist of the Culicidae (Diptera) of Morocco, with notes on species of historical and current medical importance.

PubMed

Trari, Bouchra; Dakki, Mohamed; Harbach, Ralph E

2017-06-01

An updated checklist of the mosquito species (Diptera: Culicidae) recorded in Morocco from 1916 to 2016 is provided, including synonyms and synonymous usage for each species. Forty-three species belonging to seven genera are recorded so far: Anopheles (9), Aedes (12) Coquillettidia (2), Culex (12), Culiseta (5), Orthopodomyia (1) and Uranotaenia (2). Traditional and equivalent names in the polyphyletic concept of Aedes are provided for the aedine species. The historical importance and current potential threat of mosquitoes to human health in Morocco is reviewed. © 2017 The Society for Vector Ecology.

Rainfall variability in southern Spain on decadal to centennial time scales

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rodrigo, F. S.; Esteban-Parra, M. J.; Pozo-Vázquez, D.; Castro-Díez, Y.

2000-06-01

In this work a long rainfall series in Andalusia (southern Spain) is analysed. Methods of historical climatology were used to reconstruct a 500-year series from historical sources. Different statistical tools were used to detect and characterize significant changes in this series. Results indicate rainfall fluctuations, without abrupt changes, in the following alternating dry and wet phases: 1501-1589 dry, 1590-1649 wet, 1650-1775 dry, 1776-1937 wet and 1938-1997 dry. Possible causal mechanisms are discussed, emphasizing the important contribution of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) to rainfall variability in the region. Solar activity is discussed in relation to the Maunder Minimum period, and finally the past and present are compared. Results indicate that the magnitude of fluctuations is similar in the past and present.

TRMM-Based Lightning Climatology

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Cecil, Daniel J.; Buechler, Dennis E.; Blakeslee, Richard J.

2011-01-01

Gridded climatologies of total lightning flash rates seen by the spaceborne Optical Transient Detector (OTD) and Lightning Imaging Sensor (LIS) have been updated. OTD collected data from May 1995 to March 2000. LIS data (equatorward of about 38 deg) has been added for 1998-2010. Flash counts from each instrument are scaled by the best available estimates of detection efficiency. The long LIS record makes the merged climatology most robust in the tropics and subtropics, while the high latitude data is entirely from OTD. The mean global flash rate from the merged climatology is 46 flashes per second. The peak annual flash rate at 0.5 deg scale is 160 fl/square km/yr in eastern Congo. The peak monthly average flash rate at 2.5 scale is 18 fl/square km/mo, from early April to early May in the Brahmaputra Valley of far eastern India. Lightning decreases in this region during the monsoon season, but increases further north and west. A monthly average peak from early August to early September in northern Pakistan also exceeds any monthly averages from Africa, despite central Africa having the greatest yearly average. Most continental regions away from the equator have an annual cycle with lightning flash rates peaking in late spring or summer. The main exceptions are India and southeast Asia, with springtime peaks in April and May. For landmasses near the equator, flash rates peak near the equinoxes. For many oceanic regions, the peak flash rates occur in autumn. This is particularly noticeable for the Mediterranean and North Atlantic. Landmasses have a strong diurnal cycle of lightning, with flash rates generally peaking between 3-5 pm local solar time. The central United States flash rates peak later, in late evening or early night. Flash rates peak after midnight in northern Argentina. These regions are known for large, intense, long-lived mesoscale convective systems.

A New Operational Snow Retrieval Algorithm Applied to Historical AMSR-E Brightness Temperatures

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Tedesco, Marco; Jeyaratnam, Jeyavinoth

2016-01-01

Snow is a key element of the water and energy cycles and the knowledge of spatio-temporal distribution of snow depth and snow water equivalent (SWE) is fundamental for hydrological and climatological applications. SWE and snow depth estimates can be obtained from spaceborne microwave brightness temperatures at global scale and high temporal resolution (daily). In this regard, the data recorded by the Advanced Microwave Scanning Radiometer-Earth Orbiting System (EOS) (AMSR-E) onboard the National Aeronautics and Space Administration's (NASA) AQUA spacecraft have been used to generate operational estimates of SWE and snow depth, complementing estimates generated with other microwave sensors flying on other platforms. In this study, we report the results concerning the development and assessment of a new operational algorithm applied to historical AMSR-E data. The new algorithm here proposed makes use of climatological data, electromagnetic modeling and artificial neural networks for estimating snow depth as well as a spatio-temporal dynamic density scheme to convert snow depth to SWE. The outputs of the new algorithm are compared with those of the current AMSR-E operational algorithm as well as in-situ measurements and other operational snow products, specifically the Canadian Meteorological Center (CMC) and GlobSnow datasets. Our results show that the AMSR-E algorithm here proposed generally performs better than the operational one and addresses some major issues identified in the spatial distribution of snow depth fields associated with the evolution of effective grain size.

ACHP | Federal Agency Historic Preservation Programs and Officers

Science.gov Websites

Federal Agency Historic Preservation Programs and Officers - Agency Information Updated: April 19, 2018 Federal Preservation Officer Chief, Real Property Management Branch Facilities Division, Agricultural @wdc.usda.gov Read more information For express and courier deliveries please use the following address: USDA

An evaluation of the effect of recent temperature variability on the prediction of coral bleaching events.

PubMed

Donner, Simon D

2011-07-01

Over the past 30 years, warm thermal disturbances have become commonplace on coral reefs worldwide. These periods of anomalous sea surface temperature (SST) can lead to coral bleaching, a breakdown of the symbiosis between the host coral and symbiotic dinoflagellates which reside in coral tissue. The onset of bleaching is typically predicted to occur when the SST exceeds a local climatological maximum by 1 degrees C for a month or more. However, recent evidence suggests that the threshold at which bleaching occurs may depend on thermal history. This study uses global SST data sets (HadISST and NOAA AVHRR) and mass coral bleaching reports (from Reefbase) to examine the effect of historical SST variability on the accuracy of bleaching prediction. Two variability-based bleaching prediction methods are developed from global analysis of seasonal and interannual SST variability. The first method employs a local bleaching threshold derived from the historical variability in maximum annual SST to account for spatial variability in past thermal disturbance frequency. The second method uses a different formula to estimate the local climatological maximum to account for the low seasonality of SST in the tropics. The new prediction methods are tested against the common globally fixed threshold method using the observed bleaching reports. The results find that estimating the bleaching threshold from local historical SST variability delivers the highest predictive power, but also a higher rate of Type I errors. The second method has the lowest predictive power globally, though regional analysis suggests that it may be applicable in equatorial regions. The historical data analysis suggests that the bleaching threshold may have appeared to be constant globally because the magnitude of interannual variability in maximum SST is similar for many of the world's coral reef ecosystems. For example, the results show that a SST anomaly of 1 degrees C is equivalent to 1.73-2.94 standard deviations of the maximum monthly SST for two-thirds of the world's coral reefs. Coral reefs in the few regions that experience anomalously high interannual SST variability like the equatorial Pacific could prove critical to understanding how coral communities acclimate or adapt to frequent and/or severe thermal disturbances.

Changes in Financial Aid and Student Enrollment at Historically Black Colleges and Universities after the Tightening of PLUS Credit Standards: An Update for the 2013/14 School Year. REL 2017-254

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Johnson, Matthew; Bruch, Julie; Gill, Brian

2017-01-01

In 2011 the U.S. Department of Education tightened the credit standards for Parent Loans for Undergraduate Students (PLUS). Concerned about the possible effects of this change on historically Black colleges and universities (HBCUs), Regional Educational Laboratory Mid-Atlantic's Historically Black Colleges and Universities College Completion…

Historical Topics for the Mathematics Classroom.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

National Council of Teachers of Mathematics, Inc., Reston, VA.

The National Council of Teachers of Mathematics (NCTM) has published this updated edition in response to a continuing demand for historical materials to be used in teaching mathematics. This publication was originally issued in 1969 as the "Thirty-first Yearbook." Its primary objective is to make available to mathematics classes important material…

Automotive Manufacturers' Cost/Revenue, Financial and Risk Analysis : Projected Impact of Automobile Manufacturing on the Plastics Industry

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

1979-08-01

The report is part of a study to update the historical and projected cost/revenue analysis of the U.S. domestic automobile manufacturers. It includes the evaluation of the historical and projected financial data to assess the corporate financial posi...

What's Going on Over There: A Pacific Rim Update.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Neal, Larry L.

Horace Greeley was historically correct when he admonished the early pioneers to "Go West!" While historically insightful he was geographically limited. The West now extends beyond the borders and across the vast Pacific Ocean to the entire Pacific Rim. Characteristically, these countries are growing economically, politically, and socially with…

Comparison of Probabilistic Coastal Inundation Maps Based on Historical Storms and Statistically Modeled Storm Ensemble

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Feng, X.; Sheng, Y.; Condon, A. J.; Paramygin, V. A.; Hall, T.

2012-12-01

A cost effective method, JPM-OS (Joint Probability Method with Optimal Sampling), for determining storm response and inundation return frequencies was developed and applied to quantify the hazard of hurricane storm surges and inundation along the Southwest FL,US coast (Condon and Sheng 2012). The JPM-OS uses piecewise multivariate regression splines coupled with dimension adaptive sparse grids to enable the generation of a base flood elevation (BFE) map. Storms are characterized by their landfall characteristics (pressure deficit, radius to maximum winds, forward speed, heading, and landfall location) and a sparse grid algorithm determines the optimal set of storm parameter combinations so that the inundation from any other storm parameter combination can be determined. The end result is a sample of a few hundred (197 for SW FL) optimal storms which are simulated using a dynamically coupled storm surge / wave modeling system CH3D-SSMS (Sheng et al. 2010). The limited historical climatology (1940 - 2009) is explored to develop probabilistic characterizations of the five storm parameters. The probability distributions are discretized and the inundation response of all parameter combinations is determined by the interpolation in five-dimensional space of the optimal storms. The surge response and the associated joint probability of the parameter combination is used to determine the flood elevation with a 1% annual probability of occurrence. The limited historical data constrains the accuracy of the PDFs of the hurricane characteristics, which in turn affect the accuracy of the BFE maps calculated. To offset the deficiency of limited historical dataset, this study presents a different method for producing coastal inundation maps. Instead of using the historical storm data, here we adopt 33,731 tracks that can represent the storm climatology in North Atlantic basin and SW Florida coasts. This large quantity of hurricane tracks is generated from a new statistical model which had been used for Western North Pacific (WNP) tropical cyclone (TC) genesis (Hall 2011) as well as North Atlantic tropical cyclone genesis (Hall and Jewson 2007). The introduction of these tracks complements the shortage of the historical samples and allows for more reliable PDFs required for implementation of JPM-OS. Using the 33,731 tracks and JPM-OS, an optimal storm ensemble is determined. This approach results in different storms/winds for storm surge and inundation modeling, and produces different Base Flood Elevation maps for coastal regions. Coastal inundation maps produced by the two different methods will be discussed in detail in the poster paper.

12 CFR 3.205 - VaR-based measure.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

2014-01-01

... bank or Federal savings association must update data sets at least monthly or more frequently as... be based on a historical observation period of at least one year. Data used to determine the VaR... using this option must update its data more frequently than monthly and in a manner appropriate for the...

The International Satellite Cloud Climatology Project H-Series climate data record product

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Young, Alisa H.; Knapp, Kenneth R.; Inamdar, Anand; Hankins, William; Rossow, William B.

2018-03-01

This paper describes the new global long-term International Satellite Cloud Climatology Project (ISCCP) H-series climate data record (CDR). The H-series data contain a suite of level 2 and 3 products for monitoring the distribution and variation of cloud and surface properties to better understand the effects of clouds on climate, the radiation budget, and the global hydrologic cycle. This product is currently available for public use and is derived from both geostationary and polar-orbiting satellite imaging radiometers with common visible and infrared (IR) channels. The H-series data currently span July 1983 to December 2009 with plans for continued production to extend the record to the present with regular updates. The H-series data are the longest combined geostationary and polar orbiter satellite-based CDR of cloud properties. Access to the data is provided in network common data form (netCDF) and archived by NOAA's National Centers for Environmental Information (NCEI) under the satellite Climate Data Record Program (https://doi.org/10.7289/V5QZ281S). The basic characteristics, history, and evolution of the dataset are presented herein with particular emphasis on and discussion of product changes between the H-series and the widely used predecessor D-series product which also spans from July 1983 through December 2009. Key refinements included in the ISCCP H-series CDR are based on improved quality control measures, modified ancillary inputs, higher spatial resolution input and output products, calibration refinements, and updated documentation and metadata to bring the H-series product into compliance with existing standards for climate data records.

Transit research and industry news update : September 2009.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2009-09-01

SPECIAL............................................................................................................................2 : Transportation Secretary Ray LaHood Kicks Off Historic Summit to Tackle Dangers of Distracted Driving.................

Sensitivity of ground - water recharge estimates to climate variability and change, Columbia Plateau, Washington

USGS Publications Warehouse

Vaccaro, John J.

1992-01-01

The sensitivity of groundwater recharge estimates was investigated for the semiarid Ellensburg basin, located on the Columbia Plateau, Washington, to historic and projected climatic regimes. Recharge was estimated for predevelopment and current (1980s) land use conditions using a daily energy-soil-water balance model. A synthetic daily weather generator was used to simulate lengthy sequences with parameters estimated from subsets of the historical record that were unusually wet and unusually dry. Comparison of recharge estimates corresponding to relatively wet and dry periods showed that recharge for predevelopment land use varies considerably within the range of climatic conditions observed in the 87-year historical observation period. Recharge variations for present land use conditions were less sensitive to the same range of historical climatic conditions because of irrigation. The estimated recharge based on the 87-year historical climatology was compared with adjustments to the historical precipitation and temperature records for the same record to reflect CO2-doubling climates as projected by general circulation models (GCMs). Two GCM scenarios were considered: an average of conditions for three different GCMs with CO2 doubling, and a most severe “maximum” case. For the average GCM scenario, predevelopment recharge increased, and current recharge decreased. Also considered was the sensitivity of recharge to the variability of climate within the historical and adjusted historical records. Predevelopment and current recharge were less and more sensitive, respectively, to the climate variability for the average GCM scenario as compared to the variability within the historical record. For the maximum GCM scenario, recharge for both predevelopment and current land use decreased, and the sensitivity to the CO2-related climate change was larger than sensitivity to the variability in the historical and adjusted historical climate records.

A Real-Time MODIS Vegetation Composite for Land Surface Models and Short-Term Forecasting

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Case, Jonathan L.; LaFontaine, Frank J.; Kumar, Sujay V.; Jedlovec, Gary J.

2011-01-01

The NASA Short-term Prediction Research and Transition (SPoRT) Center is producing real-time, 1- km resolution Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) gridded composites over a Continental U.S. domain. These composites are updated daily based on swath data from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) sensor aboard the polar orbiting NASA Aqua and Terra satellites, with a product time lag of about one day. A simple time-weighting algorithm is applied to the NDVI swath data that queries the previous 20 days of data to ensure a continuous grid of data populated at all pixels. The daily composites exhibited good continuity both spatially and temporally during June and July 2010. The composites also nicely depicted high greenness anomalies that resulted from significant rainfall over southwestern Texas, Mexico, and New Mexico during July due to early-season tropical cyclone activity. The SPoRT Center is in the process of computing greenness vegetation fraction (GVF) composites from the MODIS NDVI data at the same spatial and temporal resolution for use in the NASA Land Information System (LIS). The new daily GVF dataset would replace the monthly climatological GVF database (based on Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer [AVHRR] observations from 1992-93) currently available to the Noah land surface model (LSM) in both LIS and the public version of the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model. The much higher spatial resolution (1 km versus 0.15 degree) and daily updates based on real-time satellite observations have the capability to greatly improve the simulation of the surface energy budget in the Noah LSM within LIS and WRF. Once code is developed in LIS to incorporate the daily updated GVFs, the SPoRT Center will conduct simulation sensitivity experiments to quantify the impacts and improvements realized by the MODIS real-time GVF data. This presentation will describe the methodology used to develop the 1-km MODIS NDVI composites and show sample output from summer 2010, compare the MODIS GVF data to the AVHRR monthly climatology, and illustrate the sensitivity of the Noah LSM within LIS and/or the coupled LIS/WRF system to the new MODIS GVF dataset.

Skilful rainfall forecasts from artificial neural networks with long duration series and single-month optimization

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Abbot, John; Marohasy, Jennifer

2017-11-01

General circulation models, which forecast by first modelling actual conditions in the atmosphere and ocean, are used extensively for monthly rainfall forecasting. We show how more skilful monthly and seasonal rainfall forecasts can be achieved through the mining of historical climate data using artificial neural networks (ANNs). This technique is demonstrated for two agricultural regions of Australia: the wheat belt of Western Australia and the sugar growing region of coastal Queensland. The most skilful monthly rainfall forecasts measured in terms of Ideal Point Error (IPE), and a score relative to climatology, are consistently achieved through the use of ANNs optimized for each month individually, and also by choosing to input longer historical series of climate indices. Using the longer series restricts the number of climate indices that can be used.

LACIE performance predictor final operational capability program description, volume 1

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

1976-01-01

The program EPHEMS computes the orbital parameters for up to two vehicles orbiting the earth for up to 549 days. The data represents a continuous swath about the earth, producing tables which can be used to determine when and if certain land segments will be covered. The program GRID processes NASA's climatology tape to obtain the weather indices along with associated latitudes and longitudes. The program LUMP takes substrata historical data and sample segment ID, crop window, crop window error and statistical data, checks for valid input parameters and generates the segment ID file, crop window file and the substrata historical file. Finally, the System Error Executive (SEE) Program checks YES error and truth data, CAMS error data, and signature extension data for validity and missing elements. A message is printed for each error found.

Caspian sea-level changes during the last millennium: historical and geological evidence from the south Caspian Sea

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Naderi Beni, A.; Lahijani, H.; Mousavi Harami, R.; Arpe, K.; Leroy, S. A. G.; Marriner, N.; Berberian, M.; Andrieu-Ponel, V.; Djamali, M.; Mahboubi, A.; Reimer, P. J.

2013-07-01

Historical literature may constitute a valuable source of information to reconstruct sea-level changes. Here, historical documents and geological records have been combined to reconstruct Caspian sea-level (CSL) changes during the last millennium. In addition to a comprehensive literature review, new data from two short sediment cores were obtained from the south-eastern Caspian coast to identify coastal change driven by water-level changes and to compare the results with other geological and historical findings. The overall results indicate a high-stand during the Little Ice Age, up to -21 m (and extra rises due to manmade river avulsion), with a -28 m low-stand during the Medieval Climate Anomaly, while presently the CSL stands at -26.5 m. A comparison of the CSL curve with other lake systems and proxy records suggests that the main sea-level oscillations are essentially paced by solar irradiance. Although the major controller of the long-term CSL changes is driven by climatological factors, the seismicity of the basin creates local changes in base level. These local base-level changes should be considered in any CSL reconstruction.

Caspian Sea level changes during the last millennium: historical and geological evidences from the south Caspian Sea

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Naderi Beni, A.; Lahijani, H.; Mousavi Harami, R.; Arpe, K.; Leroy, S. A. G.; Marriner, N.; Berberian, M.; Andrieu-Ponel, V.; Djamali, M.; Mahboubi, A.

2013-03-01

Historical literature may constitute a valuable source of information to reconstruct sea level changes. Here, historical documents and geological records have been combined to reconstruct Caspian sea-level (CSL) changes during the last millennium. In addition to a literature survey, new data from two short sediment cores were obtained from the south-eastern Caspian coast to identify coastal change driven by water-level changes. Two articulated bivalve shells from the marine facies were radiocarbon dated and calibrated to establish a chronology and to compare them with historical findings. The overall results indicate a high-stand during the Little Ice Age, up to -19 m, with a -28 m low-stand during the Medieval Climate Anomaly, while presently the CSL stands at -26.5 m. A comparison of the CSL curve with other lake systems and proxy records suggests that the main sea-level oscillations are essentially paced by solar irradiance. Although the major controller of the long-term CSL changes is driven by climatological factors, the seismicity of the basin could create locally changes in base level. These local base-level changes should be considered in any CSL reconstruction.

North Atlantic Tropical Cyclones: historical simulations and future changes with the new high-resolution Arpege AGCM.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pilon, R.; Chauvin, F.; Palany, P.; Belmadani, A.

2017-12-01

A new version of the variable high-resolution Meteo-France Arpege atmospheric general circulation model (AGCM) has been developed for tropical cyclones (TC) studies, with a focus on the North Atlantic basin, where the model horizontal resolution is 15 km. Ensemble historical AMIP (Atmospheric Model Intercomparison Project)-type simulations (1965-2014) and future projections (2020-2080) under the IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change) representative concentration pathway (RCP) 8.5 scenario have been produced. TC-like vortices tracking algorithm is used to investigate TC activity and variability. TC frequency, genesis, geographical distribution and intensity are examined. Historical simulations are compared to best-track and reanalysis datasets. Model TC frequency is generally realistic but tends to be too high during the rst decade of the historical simulations. Biases appear to originate from both the tracking algorithm and model climatology. Nevertheless, the model is able to simulate extremely well intense TCs corresponding to category 5 hurricanes in the North Atlantic, where grid resolution is highest. Interaction between developing TCs and vertical wind shear is shown to be contributing factor for TC variability. Future changes in TC activity and properties are also discussed.

A global seasonal surface ocean climatology of phytoplankton types based on CHEMTAX analysis of HPLC pigments

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Swan, Chantal M.; Vogt, Meike; Gruber, Nicolas; Laufkoetter, Charlotte

2016-03-01

Much advancement has been made in recent years in field data assimilation, remote sensing and ecosystem modeling, yet our global view of phytoplankton biogeography beyond chlorophyll biomass is still a cursory taxonomic picture with vast areas of the open ocean requiring field validations. High performance liquid chromatography (HPLC) pigment data combined with inverse methods offer an advantage over many other phytoplankton quantification measures by way of providing an immediate perspective of the whole phytoplankton community in a sample as a function of chlorophyll biomass. Historically, such chemotaxonomic analysis has been conducted mainly at local spatial and temporal scales in the ocean. Here, we apply a widely tested inverse approach, CHEMTAX, to a global climatology of pigment observations from HPLC. This study marks the first systematic and objective global application of CHEMTAX, yielding a seasonal climatology comprised of ~1500 1°×1° global grid points of the major phytoplankton pigment types in the ocean characterizing cyanobacteria, haptophytes, chlorophytes, cryptophytes, dinoflagellates, and diatoms, with results validated against prior regional studies where possible. Key findings from this new global view of specific phytoplankton abundances from pigments are a) the large global proportion of marine haptophytes (comprising 32±5% of total chlorophyll), whose biogeochemical functional roles are relatively unknown, and b) the contrasting spatial scales of complexity in global community structure that can be explained in part by regional oceanographic conditions. The results are publically accessible via

An investigation of methods for updating ionospheric scintillation models using topside in-situ plasma density measurements

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Secan, James A.

1991-05-01

Modern military communication, navigation, and surveillance systems depend on reliable, noise-free transionospheric radio-frequency channels. They can be severely impacted by small-scale electron-density irregularities in the ionosphere, which cause both phase and amplitude scintillation. Basic tools used in planning and mitigation schemes are climatological in nature and thus may greatly over- and under-estimate the effects of scintillation in a given scenario. This report summarizes the results of the first year of a three-year investigation into the methods for updating ionospheric scintillation models using observations of ionospheric plasma-density irregularities measured by DMSP Scintillation Meter (SM) sensor. Results are reported from the analysis of data from a campaign conducted in January 1990 near Tromso, Norway, in which near coincident in-situ plasma-density and transionospheric scintillation measurements were made. Estimates for the level of intensity and phase scintillation on a transionospheric UHF radio link in the early-evening auroral zone were calculated from DMSP SM data and compared to the levels actually observed.

Urban Heat Wave Hazard Assessment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Quattrochi, D. A.; Jedlovec, G.; Crane, D. L.; Meyer, P. J.; LaFontaine, F.

2016-12-01

Heat waves are one of the largest causes of environmentally-related deaths globally and are likely to become more numerous as a result of climate change. The intensification of heat waves by the urban heat island effect and elevated humidity, combined with urban demographics, are key elements leading to these disasters. Better warning of the potential hazards may help lower risks associated with heat waves. Moderate resolution thermal data from NASA satellites is used to derive high spatial resolution estimates of apparent temperature (heat index) over urban regions. These data, combined with demographic data, are used to produce a daily heat hazard/risk map for selected cities. MODIS data are used to derive daily composite maximum and minimum land surface temperature (LST) fields to represent the amplitude of the diurnal temperature cycle and identify extreme heat days. Compositing routines are used to generate representative daily maximum and minimum LSTs for the urban environment. The limited effect of relative humidity on the apparent temperature (typically 10-15%) allows for the use of modeled moisture fields to convert LST to apparent temperature without loss of spatial variability. The daily max/min apparent temperature fields are used to identify abnormally extreme heat days relative to climatological values in order to produce a heat wave hazard map. Reference to climatological values normalizes the hazard for a particular region (e.g., the impact of an extreme heat day). A heat wave hazard map has been produced for several case study periods and then computed on a quasi-operational basis during the summer of 2016 for Atlanta, GA, Chicago, IL, St. Louis, MO, and Huntsville, AL. A hazard does not become a risk until someone or something is exposed to that hazard at a level that might do harm. Demographic information is used to assess the urban risk associated with the heat wave hazard. Collectively, the heat wave hazard product can warn people in urban regions who do not have the means to provide air conditioning or take other means to stay cool. The heat wave risk product is conveyed to users via a website that describes current and historical heat wave information and is updated in real time as needed. These risk maps can be used for better monitoring of public health risk from extreme heat events in urban areas.

Evaluations of high-resolution dynamically downscaled ensembles over the contiguous United States

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zobel, Zachary; Wang, Jiali; Wuebbles, Donald J.; Kotamarthi, V. Rao

2018-02-01

This study uses Weather Research and Forecast (WRF) model to evaluate the performance of six dynamical downscaled decadal historical simulations with 12-km resolution for a large domain (7200 × 6180 km) that covers most of North America. The initial and boundary conditions are from three global climate models (GCMs) and one reanalysis data. The GCMs employed in this study are the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory Earth System Model with Generalized Ocean Layer Dynamics component, Community Climate System Model, version 4, and the Hadley Centre Global Environment Model, version 2-Earth System. The reanalysis data is from the National Centers for Environmental Prediction-US. Department of Energy Reanalysis II. We analyze the effects of bias correcting, the lateral boundary conditions and the effects of spectral nudging. We evaluate the model performance for seven surface variables and four upper atmospheric variables based on their climatology and extremes for seven subregions across the United States. The results indicate that the simulation's performance depends on both location and the features/variable being tested. We find that the use of bias correction and/or nudging is beneficial in many situations, but employing these when running the RCM is not always an improvement when compared to the reference data. The use of an ensemble mean and median leads to a better performance in measuring the climatology, while it is significantly biased for the extremes, showing much larger differences than individual GCM driven model simulations from the reference data. This study provides a comprehensive evaluation of these historical model runs in order to make informed decisions when making future projections.

The Added Value to Global Model Projections of Climate Change by Dynamical Downscaling: A Case Study over the Continental U.S. using the GISS-ModelE2 and WRF Models

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Racherla, P. N.; Shindell, D. T.; Faluvegi, G. S.

2012-01-01

Dynamical downscaling is being increasingly used for climate change studies, wherein the climates simulated by a coupled atmosphere-ocean general circulation model (AOGCM) for a historical and a future (projected) decade are used to drive a regional climate model (RCM) over a specific area. While previous studies have demonstrated that RCMs can add value to AOGCM-simulated climatologies over different world regions, it is unclear as to whether or not this translates to a better reproduction of the observed climate change therein. We address this issue over the continental U.S. using the GISS-ModelE2 and WRF models, a state-of-the-science AOGCM and RCM, respectively. As configured here, the RCM does not effect holistic improvement in the seasonally and regionally averaged surface air temperature or precipitation for the individual historical decades. Insofar as the climate change between the two decades is concerned, the RCM does improve upon the AOGCM when nudged in the domain proper, but only modestly so. Further, the analysis indicates that there is not a strong relationship between skill in capturing climatological means and skill in capturing climate change. Though additional research would be needed to demonstrate the robustness of this finding in AOGCM/RCM models generally, the evidence indicates that, for climate change studies, the most important factor is the skill of the driving global model itself, suggesting that highest priority should be given to improving the long-range climate skill of AOGCMs.

GMMIP (v1.0) contribution to CMIP6: Global Monsoons Model Inter-comparison Project

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhou, Tianjun; Turner, Andrew G.; Kinter, James L.; Wang, Bin; Qian, Yun; Chen, Xiaolong; Wu, Bo; Wang, Bin; Liu, Bo; Zou, Liwei; He, Bian

2016-10-01

The Global Monsoons Model Inter-comparison Project (GMMIP) has been endorsed by the panel of Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project (CMIP) as one of the participating model inter-comparison projects (MIPs) in the sixth phase of CMIP (CMIP6). The focus of GMMIP is on monsoon climatology, variability, prediction and projection, which is relevant to four of the "Grand Challenges" proposed by the World Climate Research Programme. At present, 21 international modeling groups are committed to joining GMMIP. This overview paper introduces the motivation behind GMMIP and the scientific questions it intends to answer. Three tiers of experiments, of decreasing priority, are designed to examine (a) model skill in simulating the climatology and interannual-to-multidecadal variability of global monsoons forced by the sea surface temperature during historical climate period; (b) the roles of the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation and Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation in driving variations of the global and regional monsoons; and (c) the effects of large orographic terrain on the establishment of the monsoons. The outputs of the CMIP6 Diagnostic, Evaluation and Characterization of Klima experiments (DECK), "historical" simulation and endorsed MIPs will also be used in the diagnostic analysis of GMMIP to give a comprehensive understanding of the roles played by different external forcings, potential improvements in the simulation of monsoon rainfall at high resolution and reproducibility at decadal timescales. The implementation of GMMIP will improve our understanding of the fundamental physics of changes in the global and regional monsoons over the past 140 years and ultimately benefit monsoons prediction and projection in the current century.

Response of Tree Rings Growth to Various Climatological Indices in the Sierra Nevada Mountains

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shamir, E.; Kaliff, R.; Graham, R.; Lepley, K. S.; Meko, D. M.; Touchan, R.

2017-12-01

Tree rings properties have been used to reconstruct historic regional climatological proxies. In this study, we examine whether tree rings can inform us on the basin scale spatial variability of the snow pack and soil moisture. Cores from seven sites and nine tree species of conifers were sampled in a vertical transect along the American River watershed at the Sierra Nevada Mountains. The tree cores were then cross-dated and chronologies of total ring width, early wood width, late wood width and late wood density measured by blue intensity methodology were developed. For each sampling site, a high-resolution land surface model was implemented to simulate 6-hour climatological time series of snow and soil moisture that are congruent in time and space for 1912- 2016. These time series were then used to derive independent indices that represent key climatological features that were thought to impact the tree growth. These indices include for example the duration of the dormancy season (winter), the duration of the growth season (spring), the duration of the dry season (summer) and the available seasonal soil moisture at the root zone. A comprehensive analysis of these indices with respect to the tree chronologies revealed that although different sites responded differently to these indices, all the sites were relatively insensitive to the winter temperature. Initial results suggest that warming condition and early spring onset as during the recent (2012-2015) drought increase growth in the high elevation that had a short winter with ample moisture while suppressing growth in lower elevation that experiences long dry summers. It is also interesting to note that the growth at the high elevation sites was found to be associated with the available moisture from the previous year, while in lower elevations growth responded to moisture conditions of the current year.

Method for predicting water demand for crop uses in New Jersey in 1990, 2000, 2010, and 2020, and for estimating water use for livestock and selected sectors of the food-processing industry in New Jersey in 1987

USGS Publications Warehouse

Clawges, R.M.; Titus, E.O.

1993-01-01

A method was developed to predict water demand for crop uses in New Jersey. A separate method was developed to estimate water use for livestock and selected sectors of the food-processing industry in 1987. Predictions of water demand for field- grown crops in New Jersey were made for 1990, 2000, 2010, and 2020 under three climatological scenarios: (1) wet year, (2) average year, and (3) drought year. These estimates ranged from 4.10 times 10 to the 9th power to 16.82 times 10 to the 9th power gal (gallons). Irrigation amounts calculated for the three climatological scenarios by using a daily water-balance model were multiplied by predicted numbers of irrigated acreage. Irrigated acreage was predicted from historical crop-irrigation data and from predictions of harvested acreage produced by using a statistical model relating population to harvested acreage. Predictions of water demand for cranberries and container-grown nursery crops also were made for 1990, 2000, 2010, and 2020. Predictions of water demand under the three climatological scenarios were made for container- grown nursery crops, but not for cranberries, because water demand for cranberries varies little in response to climatological factors. Water demand for cranberries was predicted to remain constant at 4.43 times 10 to the 9th power gal through the year 2020. Predictions of water demand for container-grown nursery crops ranged from 1.89 times 10 to the 9th power to 3.63 times 10 to the 9th power gal. Water-use for livestock in 1987 was estimated to be 0.78 times 10 to the 9th power gal, and water use for selected sectors of the food-processing industry was estimated to be 3.75 times 10 to the 9th power gal.

Historical sources on climate and extreme events before XX century in Calabria (Italy)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Aurora Pasqua, Angela; Petrucci, Olga

2014-05-01

Damaging Hydrogeological Events (DHEs) are defined as the occurrence of destructive phenomena, such as landslides and floods, triggered by extreme rain events. Due to the huge damage that they can cause to people and properties, DHEs are often described in a wide series of historical sources. The historical series of DHEs that affected a study region can supply useful information about the climatic trend of the area. Moreover, it can reveals temporal and spatial increases in vulnerability affecting sectors where urbanization increased throughout the time. On the other side, it can highlight further vulnerability variations occurred throughout the decades and related to specific defensive measures undertaken (or abandoned) in order to prevent damage caused by either landslides or floods. We present the historical series of catastrophic DHEs which affected a Mediterranean region named Calabria that is located in southern Italy. Data presented came from the database named ASICal (the Italian acronym of historically flooded areas in Calabria) that has been built at the beginning of 2000 at CNR-IRPI of Cosenza and that has been continuously updated since then. Currently, this database includes more than 11,000 records about floods and landslides which have been occurred in Calabria since the XVI century. These data came from different information sources as newspapers, archives of regional and national agencies, scientific and technical reports, on-site surveys reports and so on. ASICal is constantly updated. The updating concerns both current DHEs that every years affect the region, and the results of specific historical research that we regularly perform in order to fill data gaps for older epochs. In this work we present the result of a recent survey carried out in some regional public libraries focusing on the early-mid XIX century. The type of data sources available for the regional framework are described and a sketch of the DHEs trend during the last three centuries is presented. Moreover, a panoramic view of both proxy data and irregularly measured parameters concerning climatic trend of the region obtained from the analyzed historical sources is also shown.

Historical and Political Gazeteer of Afghanistan. Volume 1, Badakhshan Province and Northeastern Afghanistan.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Adamec, Ludwig W., Ed.

Combining the most important geographical data with historical, political, and cultural information, this work, one of six volumes designed as a tool of research and a general reference source, updates and includes a previous publication compiled in 1914 with corrections and additions of maps and considerable new material to take into account…

Challenges, Changes, and Impact of the Council on Social Work Education Women's Council: An Update

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Tower, Leslie E.; Lazzari, Marceline M.; Faul, Anna C.; Alvarez, Ann Rosegrant

2015-01-01

This article highlights the contributions of the Council on the Role and Status of Women in Social Work Education (Women's Council) as well as the role and status of women in social work education. For this historical analysis update, the authors drew on several primary and secondary data sources. The first major theme was organizational…

East Oklahoma, 2008 Forest Inventory and Analysis factsheet

Treesearch

Richard Harper

2010-01-01

This science update summarizes the key findings of the seventh forest survey of east Oklahoma representing the period of 1993 to 2008 (16 years since the last survey). Field work for cycle 6 data collection ended in December 1992; however, historical reports are labeled 1993. The science update will use 1992 as the correct year for the cycle 6 survey. Currently, Forest...

Climatological assessment of spatiotemporal trends in observational monthly snowfall totals and extremes over the Canadian Great Lakes Basin

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Baijnath, Janine; Duguay, Claude; Sushama, Laxmi; Huziy, Oleksandr

2017-04-01

The Laurentian Great Lakes Basin (GLB) is susceptible to snowfall events that derive from extratropical cyclones and heavy lake effect snowfall (HLES). The former is generated by quasigeostropic forcing from positive temperature or vorticity advection associated with low-pressure centres. HLES is produced by planetary boundary layer (PBL) convection that is initiated as a result of cold and dry continental air mass advecting over relatively warm lakes and generating turbulent moisture and heat fluxes into the PBL. HLES events can have disastrous impacts on local communities such as the November 2014 Buffalo storm that caused 13 fatalities. Albeit the many HLES studies, most are focused on specific case study events with a discernible under examination of climatological HLES trend analyses for the Canadian GLB. The research objectives are to first determine the historical, climatological trends in monthly snowfall totals and to examine potential surface and atmospheric variables driving the resultant changes in HLES. The second aims to analyze the historical extremes in snowfall by assessing the intensity, frequency, and duration of snowfall within the domain of interest. Spatiotemporal snowfall and precipitation trends are computed for the 1982 to 2015 period using Daymet (Version 3) monthly gridded observational datasets from the Oak Ridge National Laboratory. The North American Regional Reanalysis (NARR), NOAA Optimum Interpolation Sea Surface Temperature (OISST), and the Canadian Ice Service (CIS) datasets are also used for evaluating trends in HLES driving variables such as air temperature, lake surface temperature (LST), ice cover concentration, omega, and vertical temperature gradient (VTGlst-850). Climatological trends in monthly snowfall totals show a significant decrease along the Ontario snowbelt of Lake Superior, Lake Huron and Georgian Bay at the 90 percent confidence level. These results are attributed to significant warming in LST, significant decrease in ice cover fraction, and an increase in VTGlst-850, which enhances evaporation into the lower PBL. It is suggested that inefficient moisture recycling and increase moisture storage in warmer air masses inhibits the development of HLES. The 99th percentile of snowfall events within the GLB suggests an extreme snowfall value equal to or exceeding 15 cm per day. Spatiotemporal snowfall patterns indicate that mostly lake effect processes and not extratropical cyclones drive the high intensity, frequency, and duration of these extreme events over the GLB. Furthermore, the Canadian snowbelt region of Lake Huron and Lake Superior exhibit different spatiotemporal trends in snowfall extremes but, even within a particular snowbelt region, trends in extreme snowfall are not spatially coherent. It is suggested that geographic location of the lakes, topography, lake bathymetry, and lake orientation can influence local and large scale surface-atmosphere variables.

Severe Weather Environments in Atmospheric Reanalyses

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

King, A. T.; Kennedy, A. D.

2017-12-01

Atmospheric reanalyses combine historical observation data using a fixed assimilation scheme to achieve a dynamically coherent representation of the atmosphere. How well these reanalyses represent severe weather environments via proxies is poorly defined. To quantify the performance of reanalyses, a database of proximity soundings near severe storms from the Rapid Update Cycle 2 (RUC-2) model will be compared to a suite of reanalyses including: North American Reanalysis (NARR), European Interim Reanalysis (ERA-Interim), 2nd Modern-Era Retrospective Reanalysis for Research and Applications (MERRA-2), Japanese 55-year Reanalysis (JRA-55), 20th Century Reanalysis (20CR), and Climate Forecast System Reanalysis (CFSR). A variety of severe weather parameters will be calculated from these soundings including: convective available potential energy (CAPE), storm relative helicity (SRH), supercell composite parameter (SCP), and significant tornado parameter (STP). These soundings will be generated using the SHARPpy python module, which is an open source tool used to calculate severe weather parameters. Preliminary results indicate that the NARR and JRA55 are significantly more skilled at producing accurate severe weather environments than the other reanalyses. The primary difference between these two reanalyses and the remaining reanalyses is a significant negative bias for thermodynamic parameters. To facilitate climatological studies, the scope of work will be expanded to compute these parameters for the entire domain and duration of select renalyses. Preliminary results from this effort will be presented and compared to observations at select locations. This dataset will be made pubically available to the larger scientific community, and details of this product will be provided.

Long term statistics (1845-2014) of daily runoff maxima, monthly rainfall and runoff in the Adda basin (Italian Alps) under natural and anthropogenic changes.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ranzi, Roberto; Goatelli, Federica; Castioni, Camilla; Tomirotti, Massimo; Crespi, Alice; Mattea, Enrico; Brunetti, Michele; Maugeri, Maurizio

2017-04-01

A new time series of daily runoff reconstructed at the inflow in the Como Lake in the Italian Alps is presented. The time series covers a 170 years time period and includes the two largest floods ever recorded for the region: the 1868 and 1987 ones. Statistics of annual maxima show a decrease which is not statistically significant and a decrease of annual runoff which is statistically significant, instead. To investigate the possible reasons of such changes monthly temperature and precipitation are analysed. Decrease of runoff peaks can be justified by the increase of reservoir storage volumes. Evapotranspiration indexes based on monthly temperature indicate an increase of evapotranspiration losses as a possible cause of runoff decrease. Secular precipitation series for the Adda basin are then computed by a methodology projecting observational data onto a high-resolution grid (30-arc-second, DEM GTOPO30). It is based on the assumption that the spatio-temporal behaviour of a meteorological variable over a given area can be described by superimposing two fields: the climatological normals over a reference period, i.e. the climatologies, and the departure from them, i.e. the anomalies. The two fields can be reconstructed independently and are based on different datasets. To compute the precipitation climatologies all the available stations within the Adda basin are considered while, for the anomalies, only the longest and the most homogeneous records are selected. To this aim, a great effort was made to extend these series to the past as much as possible, also by digitising the historical records available from the hardcopy archives. The climatological values at each DEM cell of the Adda basin are obtained by a local weighted linear regression of precipitation versus elevation (LWLR) taking into account the closest stations with similar geographical characteristics to those of the cell itself. The anomaly field is obtained by a weighted average of the anomalies of neighbouring stations considering both the distance and the elevation differences between the stations and the considered cell. Finally, the secular precipitation records at each DEM cell of the Adda basin are computed by multiplying the local estimated anomalies for the corresponding climatological values. A statistically significant decreasing trend of precipitation results from the Man Kendall and Sen-Theil tests.

P69 Using the NASA-Unified WRF to Assess the Impacts of Real-Time Vegetation on Simulations of Severe Weather

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Case, Jonathan L.; LaFontaine, Frank J.; Kumar, Sujay V.; Peters-Lidard, Christa D.

2012-01-01

Since June 2010, the NASA Short-term Prediction Research and Transition (SPoRT; Goodman et al. 2004; Darden et al. 2010; Stano et al. 2012; Fuell et al. 2012) Center has been generating a real-time Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) and corresponding Green Vegetation Fraction (GVF) composite based on reflectances from NASA s Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) instrument. This dataset is generated at 0.01 resolution across the Continental United States (CONUS), and updated daily. The goal of producing such a vegetation dataset is to improve over the default climatological GVF dataset in land surface and numerical weather prediction models, in order to have better simulations of heat and moisture exchange between the land surface and the planetary boundary layer. Details on the SPoRT/MODIS vegetation composite algorithm are presented in Case et al. (2011). Vegetation indices such as GVF and Leaf Area Index (LAI) are used by land surface models (LSMs) to represent the horizontal and vertical density of plant vegetation (Gutman and Ignatov 1998), in order to calculate transpiration, interception and radiative shading. Both of these indices are related to the NDVI; however, there is an inherent ambiguity in determining GVF and LAI simultaneously from NDVI, as described in Gutman and Ignatov (1998). One practice is to specify the LAI while allowing the GVF to vary both spatially and temporally, as is done in the Noah LSM (Chen and Dudhia 2001; Ek et al. 2003). Operational versions of Noah within several of the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) global and regional modeling systems hold the LAI fixed, while the GVF varies according to a global monthly climatology. This GVF climatology was derived from NDVI data on the NOAA Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR) polar orbiting satellite, using information from 1985 to 1991 (Gutman and Ignatov 1998; Jiang et al. 2010). Representing data at the mid-point of every month, the climatological dataset is on a grid with 0.144 (16 km) spatial resolution and is distributed with the community WRF model (Ek et al. 2003; Jiang et al. 2010; Skamarock et al. 2008).

Historical Evolution of Instructional Technology in Teacher Education Programs: A Ten-Year Update

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Betrus, Anthony

2012-01-01

The content and emphasis of the introductory technology courses for undergraduate preservice teachers has historically been examined, with the earliest study conducted by Stracke in 1932. In an attempt to identify trends in the course DeKieffer conducted a series of studies over ten year intervals, in 1947, 1957, 1967, and 1977. In 2000 the first…

An algorithm for computing moments-based flood quantile estimates when historical flood information is available

USGS Publications Warehouse

Cohn, T.A.; Lane, W.L.; Baier, W.G.

1997-01-01

This paper presents the expected moments algorithm (EMA), a simple and efficient method for incorporating historical and paleoflood information into flood frequency studies. EMA can utilize three types of at-site flood information: systematic stream gage record; information about the magnitude of historical floods; and knowledge of the number of years in the historical period when no large flood occurred. EMA employs an iterative procedure to compute method-of-moments parameter estimates. Initial parameter estimates are calculated from systematic stream gage data. These moments are then updated by including the measured historical peaks and the expected moments, given the previously estimated parameters, of the below-threshold floods from the historical period. The updated moments result in new parameter estimates, and the last two steps are repeated until the algorithm converges. Monte Carlo simulations compare EMA, Bulletin 17B's [United States Water Resources Council, 1982] historically weighted moments adjustment, and maximum likelihood estimators when fitting the three parameters of the log-Pearson type III distribution. These simulations demonstrate that EMA is more efficient than the Bulletin 17B method, and that it is nearly as efficient as maximum likelihood estimation (MLE). The experiments also suggest that EMA has two advantages over MLE when dealing with the log-Pearson type III distribution: It appears that EMA estimates always exist and that they are unique, although neither result has been proven. EMA can be used with binomial or interval-censored data and with any distributional family amenable to method-of-moments estimation.

An algorithm for computing moments-based flood quantile estimates when historical flood information is available

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cohn, T. A.; Lane, W. L.; Baier, W. G.

This paper presents the expected moments algorithm (EMA), a simple and efficient method for incorporating historical and paleoflood information into flood frequency studies. EMA can utilize three types of at-site flood information: systematic stream gage record; information about the magnitude of historical floods; and knowledge of the number of years in the historical period when no large flood occurred. EMA employs an iterative procedure to compute method-of-moments parameter estimates. Initial parameter estimates are calculated from systematic stream gage data. These moments are then updated by including the measured historical peaks and the expected moments, given the previously estimated parameters, of the below-threshold floods from the historical period. The updated moments result in new parameter estimates, and the last two steps are repeated until the algorithm converges. Monte Carlo simulations compare EMA, Bulletin 17B's [United States Water Resources Council, 1982] historically weighted moments adjustment, and maximum likelihood estimators when fitting the three parameters of the log-Pearson type III distribution. These simulations demonstrate that EMA is more efficient than the Bulletin 17B method, and that it is nearly as efficient as maximum likelihood estimation (MLE). The experiments also suggest that EMA has two advantages over MLE when dealing with the log-Pearson type III distribution: It appears that EMA estimates always exist and that they are unique, although neither result has been proven. EMA can be used with binomial or interval-censored data and with any distributional family amenable to method-of-moments estimation.

Precipitation in the Karakoram-Himalaya: a CMIP5 view

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Palazzi, Elisa; von Hardenberg, Jost; Terzago, Silvia; Provenzale, Antonello

2015-07-01

This work analyzes the properties of precipitation in the Hindu-Kush Karakoram Himalaya region as simulated by thirty-two state-of-the-art global climate models participating in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5). We separately consider the Hindu-Kush Karakoram (HKK) in the west and the Himalaya in the east. These two regions are characterized by different precipitation climatologies, which are associated with different circulation patterns. Historical model simulations are compared with the Climate Research Unit (CRU) and Global Precipitation Climatology Centre (GPCC) precipitation data in the period 1901-2005. Future precipitation is analyzed for the two representative concentration pathways (RCP) RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 scenarios. We find that the multi-model ensemble mean and most individual models exhibit a wet bias with respect to CRU and GPCC observations in both regions and for all seasons. The models differ greatly in the seasonal climatology of precipitation which they reproduce in the HKK. The CMIP5 models predict wetter future conditions in the Himalaya in summer, with a gradual precipitation increase throughout the 21st century. Wetter summer future conditions are also predicted by most models in the RCP 8.5 scenario for the HKK, while on average no significant change can be detected in winter precipitation for both regions. In general, no single model (or group of models) emerges as that providing the best results for all the statistics considered, and the large spread in the behavior of individual models suggests to consider multi-model ensemble means with extreme care.

Characteristics of tropical cyclones in the North Atlantic and East Pacific

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Barrett, Bradford Scott

In this dissertation, I present a series of investigations to expand our understanding of TCs in the East Pacific and North Atlantic basins. First, I developed and applied a climatological tool that quickly and succinctly displays the spread of historical TC tracks for any point in the North Atlantic basin. This tool is useful in all parts of a basin because it is derived from prior storm motion trajectories and summarily captures the historical synoptic and mesoscale steering patterns. It displays the strength of the climatological signal and allow for rapid qualitative comparison between historical TC tracks and NWP models. Second, I have used a robust statistical technique to quantify the relationships between fifteen different metrics of TC activity in nine ocean basins and twelve climate indices of the leading modes of atmospheric and oceanic variability. In a thorough, encyclopedic manner, over 12,000 Spearman rank correlation coefficients were calculated and examined to identify relationships between TCs and their environment. This investigation was not limited to the East Pacific or North Atlantic, and new climatic associations were found between seasonal levels of TC activity and the major climate indices across the nine basins. This information is critical to forecasters, economists, actuaries, energy traders, and societal planners who apply knowledge of levels of TC activity on intraseasonal to interdecadal timescales. The statistics are also valuable to climatologists seeking to understand how regional TC frequency will change as the global climate warms. Third, I have examined the leading intraseasonal mode of atmospheric and oceanic variability, the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO), and discovered statistically significant relationships with the frequency of TC genesis, intensification, and landfall over the nine basins. Like the significance of the longer-period oscillations to the frequency of TC activity on intraseasonal and longer timescales, these results are highly relevant to the problem of short-term (one- to two-week) predictability of TC activity. These three investigations demonstrate the utility of historical datasets across a wide range of applications, from short-term forecasting to climate studies. In this way, the results highlighted in this dissertation represent a significant and positive contribution to meteorology. Collectively, they reveal multiple characteristics of TCs in the East Pacific and North Atlantic and provide greater understanding of the complex interactions between TCs and their surrounding larger-scale environment.

Defining the system of care concept and philosophy: to update or not to update?

PubMed

Stroul, Beth A; Blau, Gary M

2010-02-01

This commentary considers the task of updating the system of care concept and philosophy within its historical context, reviewing the original intent of the definition and clarifying misconceptions about its meaning. The authors identify the aspects of the concept and philosophy that should be updated based on the latest thinking, experience, and data, such as incorporating applicability to a broader range of populations, increasing the emphasis on the core values, specifying desired outcomes, and adding accountability as a critical element. An updated definition and values and principles are proposed, and the importance of always presenting the definition along with the accompanying specification of the philosophy is emphasized in order to increase its utility in assisting the field to move from theory to practice.

Smart Climatology Applications for Undersea Warfare

DTIC Science & Technology

2008-09-01

Comparisons of these climatologies with existing Navy climatologies based on the Generalized Digital Environmental Model ( GDEM ) reveal differences in sonic...undersea warfare. 15. NUMBER OF PAGES 117 14. SUBJECT TERMS antisubmarine warfare, climate variations, climatology, GDEM , ocean, re...climatologies based on the Generalized Digital Environmental Model ( GDEM ) to our smart ocean climatologies reveal a number of differences. The

Cloud cover archiving on a global scale - A discussion of principles

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Henderson-Sellers, A.; Hughes, N. A.; Wilson, M.

1981-01-01

Monitoring of climatic variability and climate modeling both require a reliable global cloud data set. Examination is made of the temporal and spatial variability of cloudiness in light of recommendations made by GARP in 1975 (and updated by JOC in 1978 and 1980) for cloud data archiving. An examination of the methods of comparing cloud cover frequency curves suggests that the use of the beta distribution not only facilitates objective comparison, but also reduces overall storage requirements. A specific study of the only current global cloud climatology (the U.S. Air Force's 3-dimensional nephanalysis) over the United Kingdom indicates that discussion of methods of validating satellite-based data sets is urgently required.

Technical Note: Initial assessment of a multi-method approach to spring-flood forecasting in Sweden

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Olsson, J.; Uvo, C. B.; Foster, K.; Yang, W.

2016-02-01

Hydropower is a major energy source in Sweden, and proper reservoir management prior to the spring-flood onset is crucial for optimal production. This requires accurate forecasts of the accumulated discharge in the spring-flood period (i.e. the spring-flood volume, SFV). Today's SFV forecasts are generated using a model-based climatological ensemble approach, where time series of precipitation and temperature from historical years are used to force a calibrated and initialized set-up of the HBV model. In this study, a number of new approaches to spring-flood forecasting that reflect the latest developments with respect to analysis and modelling on seasonal timescales are presented and evaluated. Three main approaches, represented by specific methods, are evaluated in SFV hindcasts for the Swedish river Vindelälven over a 10-year period with lead times between 0 and 4 months. In the first approach, historically analogue years with respect to the climate in the period preceding the spring flood are identified and used to compose a reduced ensemble. In the second, seasonal meteorological ensemble forecasts are used to drive the HBV model over the spring-flood period. In the third approach, statistical relationships between SFV and the large-sale atmospheric circulation are used to build forecast models. None of the new approaches consistently outperform the climatological ensemble approach, but for early forecasts improvements of up to 25 % are found. This potential is reasonably well realized in a multi-method system, which over all forecast dates reduced the error in SFV by ˜ 4 %. This improvement is limited but potentially significant for e.g. energy trading.

Evaluations of high-resolution dynamically downscaled ensembles over the contiguous United States Climate Dynamics

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Zobel, Zachary; Wang, Jiali; Wuebbles, Donald J.

This study uses Weather Research and Forecast (WRF) model to evaluate the performance of six dynamical downscaled decadal historical simulations with 12-km resolution for a large domain (7200 x 6180 km) that covers most of North America. The initial and boundary conditions are from three global climate models (GCMs) and one reanalysis data. The GCMs employed in this study are the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory Earth System Model with Generalized Ocean Layer Dynamics component, Community Climate System Model, version 4, and the Hadley Centre Global Environment Model, version 2-Earth System. The reanalysis data is from the National Centers for Environmentalmore » Prediction-US. Department of Energy Reanalysis II. We analyze the effects of bias correcting, the lateral boundary conditions and the effects of spectral nudging. We evaluate the model performance for seven surface variables and four upper atmospheric variables based on their climatology and extremes for seven subregions across the United States. The results indicate that the simulation’s performance depends on both location and the features/variable being tested. We find that the use of bias correction and/or nudging is beneficial in many situations, but employing these when running the RCM is not always an improvement when compared to the reference data. The use of an ensemble mean and median leads to a better performance in measuring the climatology, while it is significantly biased for the extremes, showing much larger differences than individual GCM driven model simulations from the reference data. This study provides a comprehensive evaluation of these historical model runs in order to make informed decisions when making future projections.« less

Assessment of Observational Uncertainty in Extreme Precipitation Events over the Continental United States

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Slinskey, E. A.; Loikith, P. C.; Waliser, D. E.; Goodman, A.

2017-12-01

Extreme precipitation events are associated with numerous societal and environmental impacts. Furthermore, anthropogenic climate change is projected to alter precipitation intensity across portions of the Continental United States (CONUS). Therefore, a spatial understanding and intuitive means of monitoring extreme precipitation over time is critical. Towards this end, we apply an event-based indicator, developed as a part of NASA's support of the ongoing efforts of the US National Climate Assessment, which assigns categories to extreme precipitation events based on 3-day storm totals as a basis for dataset intercomparison. To assess observational uncertainty across a wide range of historical precipitation measurement approaches, we intercompare in situ station data from the Global Historical Climatology Network (GHCN), satellite-derived precipitation data from NASA's Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM), gridded in situ station data from the Parameter-elevation Regressions on Independent Slopes Model (PRISM), global reanalysis from NASA's Modern Era Retrospective-Analysis version 2 (MERRA 2), and regional reanalysis with gauge data assimilation from NCEP's North American Regional Reanalysis (NARR). Results suggest considerable variability across the five-dataset suite in the frequency, spatial extent, and magnitude of extreme precipitation events. Consistent with expectations, higher resolution datasets were found to resemble station data best and capture a greater frequency of high-end extreme events relative to lower spatial resolution datasets. The degree of dataset agreement varies regionally, however all datasets successfully capture the seasonal cycle of precipitation extremes across the CONUS. These intercomparison results provide additional insight about observational uncertainty and the ability of a range of precipitation measurement and analysis products to capture extreme precipitation event climatology. While the event category threshold is fixed in this analysis, preliminary results from the development of a flexible categorization scheme, that scales with grid resolution, are presented.

Initial assessment of a multi-model approach to spring flood forecasting in Sweden

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Olsson, J.; Uvo, C. B.; Foster, K.; Yang, W.

2015-06-01

Hydropower is a major energy source in Sweden and proper reservoir management prior to the spring flood onset is crucial for optimal production. This requires useful forecasts of the accumulated discharge in the spring flood period (i.e. the spring-flood volume, SFV). Today's SFV forecasts are generated using a model-based climatological ensemble approach, where time series of precipitation and temperature from historical years are used to force a calibrated and initialised set-up of the HBV model. In this study, a number of new approaches to spring flood forecasting, that reflect the latest developments with respect to analysis and modelling on seasonal time scales, are presented and evaluated. Three main approaches, represented by specific methods, are evaluated in SFV hindcasts for three main Swedish rivers over a 10-year period with lead times between 0 and 4 months. In the first approach, historically analogue years with respect to the climate in the period preceding the spring flood are identified and used to compose a reduced ensemble. In the second, seasonal meteorological ensemble forecasts are used to drive the HBV model over the spring flood period. In the third approach, statistical relationships between SFV and the large-sale atmospheric circulation are used to build forecast models. None of the new approaches consistently outperform the climatological ensemble approach, but for specific locations and lead times improvements of 20-30 % are found. When combining all forecasts in a weighted multi-model approach, a mean improvement over all locations and lead times of nearly 10 % was indicated. This demonstrates the potential of the approach and further development and optimisation into an operational system is ongoing.

What's under the Golden Dome? A Children's Guide to the Massachusetts State House. [Update.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Commonwealth of Massachusetts, Boston. Tours and Government Education Division.

This booklet takes children on a tour of one of the oldest and most historic State Houses in the nation, that of Massachusetts. The booklet explains that the State House is the workplace of the Governor, the Legislature, and constitutional officers. It offers a historical overview of the Massachusetts State House. The first one was built in 1712,…

Non-chemistry coupled PM10 modeling in Chiang Mai City, Northern Thailand: A fast operational approach for aerosol forecasts

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Macatangay, Ronald; Bagtasa, Gerry; Sonkaew, Thiranan

2017-09-01

The Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF v. 3.7) model was applied to model PM10 data in Chiang Mai city for 10-days during a high haze event utilizing updated land use categories from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS). A higher resolution meteorological lateral boundary condition (from 1 degree to 0.25 degree) was also used from the NCEP GDAS/FNL Global Tropospheric Analyses and Forecast Grid system. A 3-category urban canopy model was also added and the Thompson aerosol-aware microphysics parameterization scheme was used to model the aerosol number concentrations that were later converted to PM10 concentrations. Aerosol number concentration monthly climatology was firstly used as initial and lateral boundary conditions to model PM10 concentrations. These were compared to surface data obtained from two stations of the Pollution Control Department (PCD) of Thailand. The results from the modeled PM10 concentrations could not capture the variability (r = 0.29; 0.27 for each site) and underestimated a high PM10 spike during the period studied. The authors then added satellite data to the aerosol climatology that improved the comparison with observations (r = 0.45; 43). However, both model runs still were not able to capture the high PM10 concentration event. This requires further investigation.

Mapping ENSO: Precipitation for the U.S. Affiliated Pacific Islands

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wright, E.; Price, J.; Kruk, M. C.; Luchetti, N.; Marra, J. J.

2015-12-01

The United States Affiliated Pacific Islands (USAPI) are highly susceptible to extreme precipitation events such as drought and flooding, which directly affect their freshwater availability. Precipitation distribution differs by sub-region, and is predominantly influenced by phases of the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO). Forecasters currently rely on ENSO climatologies from sparse in situ station data to inform their precipitation outlooks. This project provided an updated ENSO-based climatology of long-term precipitation patterns for each USAPI Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ) using the NOAA PERSIANN Climate Data Record (CDR). This data provided a 30-year record (1984-2015) of daily precipitation at 0.25° resolution, which was used to calculate monthly, seasonal, and yearly precipitation. Results indicated that while the PERSIANN precipitation accurately described the monthly, seasonal, and annual trends, it under-predicted the precipitation on the islands. Additionally, maps showing percent departure from normal (30 year average) were made for each three month season based on the Oceanic Niño Index (ONI) for five ENSO phases (moderate-strong El Niño and La Niña, weak El Niño and La Niña, and neutral). Local weather service offices plan on using these results and maps to better understand how the different ENSO phases influence precipitation patterns.

Determining Cloud Thermodynamic Phase from Micropulse Lidar Network Data

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lewis, Jasper R.; Campbell, James; Lolli, Simone; Tan, Ivy; Welton, Ellsworth J.

2017-01-01

Determining cloud thermodynamic phase is a critical factor in studies of Earth's radiation budget. Here we use observations from the NASA Micro Pulse Lidar Network (MPLNET) and thermodynamic profiles from the Goddard Earth Observing System, version 5 (GEOS-5) to distinguish liquid water, mixed-phase, and ice water clouds. The MPLNET provides sparse global, autonomous, and continuous measurements of clouds and aerosols which have been used in a number of scientific investigations to date. The use of a standardized instrument and a common suite of data processing algorithms with thorough uncertainty characterization allows for straightforward comparisons between sites. Lidars with polarization capabilities have recently been incorporated into the MPLNET project which allows, for the first time, the ability to infer a cloud thermodynamic phase. This presentation will look specifically at the occurrence of ice and mixed phase clouds in the temperature region of -10 C to -40 C for different climatological regions and seasons. We compare MPLNET occurrences of mixed-phase clouds to an historical climatology based on observations from the Cloud-Aerosol Lidar with Orthogonal Polarization (CALIOP) instrument aboard the Cloud-Aerosol Lidar and Infrared Pathfinder Satellite Observations (CALIPSO) spacecraft.

Long-term ice phenology records from eastern-central Europe

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Takács, Katalin; Kern, Zoltán; Pásztor, László

2018-03-01

A dataset of annual freshwater ice phenology was compiled for the largest river (Danube) and the largest lake (Lake Balaton) in eastern-central Europe, extending regular river and lake ice monitoring data through the use of historical observations and documentary records dating back to AD 1774 and AD 1885, respectively. What becomes clear is that the dates of the first appearance of ice and freeze-up have shifted, arriving 12-30 and 4-13 days later, respectively, per 100 years. Break-up and ice-off have shifted to earlier dates by 7-13 and 9-27 days/100 years, except on Lake Balaton, where the date of break-up has not changed significantly. The datasets represent a resource for (paleo)climatological research thanks to the strong, physically determined link between water and air temperature and the occurrence of freshwater ice phenomena. The derived centennial records of freshwater cryophenology for the Danube and Balaton are readily available for detailed analysis of the temporal trends, large-scale spatial comparison, or other climatological purposes. The derived dataset is publicly available via PANGAEA at https://doi.org/10.1594/PANGAEA.881056.

Determining cloud thermodynamic phase from Micropulse Lidar Network data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lewis, J. R.; Campbell, J. R.; Lolli, S.; Tan, I.; Welton, E. J.

2017-12-01

Determining cloud thermodynamic phase is a critical factor in studies of Earth's radiation budget. Here we use observations from the NASA Micropulse Lidar Network (MPLNET) and thermodynamic profiles from the Goddard Earth Observing System, version 5 (GEOS-5) to distinguish liquid water, mixed-phase, and ice water clouds. The MPLNET provides sparse global, autonomous, and continuous measurements of clouds and aerosols which have been used in a number of scientific investigations to date. The use of a standardized instrument and a common suite of data processing algorithms with thorough uncertainty characterization allows for straightforward comparisons between sites. Lidars with polarization capabilities have recently been incorporated into the MPLNET project which allows, for the first time, the ability to infer a cloud thermodynamic phase. This presentation will look specifically at the occurrence of ice and mixed phase clouds in the temperature region of 0 °C to -40 °C for different climatological regions and seasons. We compare MPLNET occurrences of mixed-phase clouds to an historical climatology based on observations from the Cloud-Aerosol Lidar with Orthogonal Polarization (CALIOP) instrument aboard the Cloud-Aerosol Lidar and Infrared Pathfinder Satellite Observations (CALIPSO) spacecraft.

Assessment of Bias in the National Mosaic and Multi-Sensor QPE (NMQ/Q2) Reanalysis Radar-Only Estimate

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nelson, B. R.; Prat, O. P.; Stevens, S. E.; Seo, D. J.; Zhang, J.; Howard, K.

2014-12-01

The processing of radar-only precipitation via the reanalysis from the National Mosaic and Multi-Sensor QPE (NMQ/Q2) based on the WSR-88D Next-generation Radar (NEXRAD) network over Continental United States (CONUS) is nearly completed for the period covering from 2001 to 2012. Reanalysis data are available at 1-km and 5-minute resolution. An important step in generating the best possible precipitation data is to assess the bias in the radar-only product. In this work, we use data from a combination of rain gauge networks to assess the bias in the NMQ reanalysis. Rain gauge networks such as the Hydrometeorological Automated Data System (HADS), the Automated Surface Observing Systems (ASOS), the Climate Reference Network (CRN), and the Global Historical Climatology Network Daily (GHCN-D) are combined for use in the assessment. These rain gauge networks vary in spatial density and temporal resolution. The challenge hence is to optimally utilize them to assess the bias at the finest resolution possible. For initial assessment, we propose to subset the CONUS data in climatologically representative domains, and perform bias assessment using information in the Q2 dataset on precipitation type and phase.

Application of Artificial Intelligence for Bridge Deterioration Model.

PubMed

Chen, Zhang; Wu, Yangyang; Li, Li; Sun, Lijun

2015-01-01

The deterministic bridge deterioration model updating problem is well established in bridge management, while the traditional methods and approaches for this problem require manual intervention. An artificial-intelligence-based approach was presented to self-updated parameters of the bridge deterioration model in this paper. When new information and data are collected, a posterior distribution was constructed to describe the integrated result of historical information and the new gained information according to Bayesian theorem, which was used to update model parameters. This AI-based approach is applied to the case of updating parameters of bridge deterioration model, which is the data collected from bridges of 12 districts in Shanghai from 2004 to 2013, and the results showed that it is an accurate, effective, and satisfactory approach to deal with the problem of the parameter updating without manual intervention.

Application of Artificial Intelligence for Bridge Deterioration Model

PubMed Central

Chen, Zhang; Wu, Yangyang; Sun, Lijun

2015-01-01

The deterministic bridge deterioration model updating problem is well established in bridge management, while the traditional methods and approaches for this problem require manual intervention. An artificial-intelligence-based approach was presented to self-updated parameters of the bridge deterioration model in this paper. When new information and data are collected, a posterior distribution was constructed to describe the integrated result of historical information and the new gained information according to Bayesian theorem, which was used to update model parameters. This AI-based approach is applied to the case of updating parameters of bridge deterioration model, which is the data collected from bridges of 12 districts in Shanghai from 2004 to 2013, and the results showed that it is an accurate, effective, and satisfactory approach to deal with the problem of the parameter updating without manual intervention. PMID:26601121

A global monthly sea surface temperature climatology

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Shea, D.J.; Trenberth, K.E.; Reynolds, R.W.

1992-09-01

The paper presents a new global 2 deg x 2 deg monthly sea surface temperature (SST) climatology, referred here to as the Shea-Trenberth-Reynolds (STR) climatology, which was derived by modifying a 1950-1979-based SST climatology from the Climate Analysis Center (CAC), by using data from the Comprehensive Ocean-Atmosphere Data Set to improve the SST estimates in the regions of the Kuroshio and the Gulf Stream. A comparison of the STR climatology with the Alexander and Mobley SST climatology showed that the STR climatology is warmer in the Northern Hemisphere, and colder poleward of 45 deg S. 22 refs.

Assessment of an ensemble seasonal streamflow forecasting system for Australia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bennett, James C.; Wang, Quan J.; Robertson, David E.; Schepen, Andrew; Li, Ming; Michael, Kelvin

2017-11-01

Despite an increasing availability of skilful long-range streamflow forecasts, many water agencies still rely on simple resampled historical inflow sequences (stochastic scenarios) to plan operations over the coming year. We assess a recently developed forecasting system called forecast guided stochastic scenarios (FoGSS) as a skilful alternative to standard stochastic scenarios for the Australian continent. FoGSS uses climate forecasts from a coupled ocean-land-atmosphere prediction system, post-processed with the method of calibration, bridging and merging. Ensemble rainfall forecasts force a monthly rainfall-runoff model, while a staged hydrological error model quantifies and propagates hydrological forecast uncertainty through forecast lead times. FoGSS is able to generate ensemble streamflow forecasts in the form of monthly time series to a 12-month forecast horizon. FoGSS is tested on 63 Australian catchments that cover a wide range of climates, including 21 ephemeral rivers. In all perennial and many ephemeral catchments, FoGSS provides an effective alternative to resampled historical inflow sequences. FoGSS generally produces skilful forecasts at shorter lead times ( < 4 months), and transits to climatology-like forecasts at longer lead times. Forecasts are generally reliable and unbiased. However, FoGSS does not perform well in very dry catchments (catchments that experience zero flows more than half the time in some months), sometimes producing strongly negative forecast skill and poor reliability. We attempt to improve forecasts through the use of (i) ESP rainfall forcings, (ii) different rainfall-runoff models, and (iii) a Bayesian prior to encourage the error model to return climatology forecasts in months when the rainfall-runoff model performs poorly. Of these, the use of the prior offers the clearest benefit in very dry catchments, where it moderates strongly negative forecast skill and reduces bias in some instances. However, the prior does not remedy poor reliability in very dry catchments. Overall, FoGSS is an attractive alternative to historical inflow sequences in all but the driest catchments. We discuss ways in which forecast reliability in very dry catchments could be improved in future work.

Integration of upper air data in the MeteoSwiss Data Warehouse

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Musa, M.; Haeberli, Ch.; Ruffieux, D.

2010-09-01

Over the last 10 years MeteoSwiss established a Data Warehouse in order to get one single, integrated data platform for all kinds of meteorological and climatological data. In the MeteoSwiss Data Warehouse data and metadata are hold in a metadata driven relational database. To reach this goal, we started with the integration of the actual and historical data from our surface stations in a first step, including routines for aggregation and calculation and the implementation of enhanced Quality Control tools. In 2008 we started with the integration of actual and historical upper air data like soundings (PTU, Wind and Ozone), any kind of profilers like wind profiler or radiometer, profiles calculated from numerical weather models and AMDAR data in the Data Warehouse. The dataset includes also high resolution sounding data from the station Payerne and TEMP data from 20 European stations since 1942. A critical point was to work out a concept for the general architecture which could deal with all different types of data. While integrating the data itself all metadata of the aerological station Payerne was transferred and imported in the central metadata repository of the Data Warehouse. The implementation of the real time and daily QC tools as well as the routines for aggregation and calculation were realized in an analog way as for the surface data. The Quality Control tools include plausibility tests like limit tests, consistency tests in the same level and vertical consistency tests. From the beginning it was the aim to support the MeteoSwiss integration strategy which deals with all aspects of integration like various observing technologies and platforms, observing systems outside MeteoSwiss and the data and metadata itself. This kind of integration comprises all aspects of "Enterprise Data Integration". After the integration, the historical as well as the actual upper air data are now available for the climatologists and meteorologists with standardized access for data retrieving and visualization. We are convinced making these data accessible for the scientist is a good contribution to a better understanding of high resolution climatology.

Oil Spills

MedlinePlus

... oil, assessing shoreline impact, and evaluating accepted cleanup technologies. Students and teachers can find a variety of oil spill-related educational resources in our Education section . For stories, news, and updates about current, notable, and historical ...

Climatology of Marine Atmospheric Refractive Effects. A Compendium of the Integrated Refractive Effects Prediction System (IREPS) Historical Summaries

DTIC Science & Technology

1982-12-20

91165 LINUE U.S., HAWAII III-114 t. 089 N0 RADIOSONDE STATION IN THIS MARSDEN SQUARE 111-115 090 91066 MIDWAY ISLAND NORTH PACIFIC OCEAN 111-116 091 NO...ALASKA 111-285 198 78308 ST. PAUL IS. U.S., ALASKA 111-286 199 70414 SHEMYA U.S., ALASKA 111-287 - 200 32628 OSTROV BERINGR U.S.S.R. 111-289 201 32217...ALASKA 111-321 199 70414 SHEMYR U.S., ALaSRA 111--287 I18 70308 ST. PAUL !S. U.S., ALASKA 111-296 194 70361 YAKUTAT U.S., ALASKA Ili-280 120 74704

An Update on the Family Educational Rights and Privacy Act

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Fuller, Matthew

2017-01-01

Despite its prominence, the Family Educational Rights and Privacy Act (FERPA) is often misinterpreted and misapplied. This chapter clarifies historical developments, common misconceptions, and modern applications of the law.

Air-sea heat flux climatologies in the Mediterranean Sea: Surface energy balance and its consistency with ocean heat storage

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Song, Xiangzhou; Yu, Lisan

2017-05-01

This study provides an analysis of the Mediterranean Sea surface energy budget using nine surface heat flux climatologies. The ensemble mean estimation shows that the net downward shortwave radiation (192 ± 19 W m-2) is balanced by latent heat flux (-98 ± 10 W m-2), followed by net longwave radiation (-78 ± 13 W m-2) and sensible heat flux (-13 ± 4 W m-2). The resulting net heat budget (Qnet) is 2 ± 12 W m-2 into the ocean, which appears to be warm biased. The annual-mean Qnet should be -5.6 ± 1.6 W m-2 when estimated from the observed net transport through the Strait of Gibraltar. To diagnose the uncertainty in nine Qnet climatologies, we constructed Qnet from the heat budget equation by using historic hydrological observations to determine the heat content changes and advective heat flux. We also used the Qnet from a data-assimilated global ocean state estimation as an additional reference. By comparing with the two reference Qnet estimates, we found that seven products (NCEP 1, NCEP 2, CFSR, ERA-Interim, MERRA, NOCSv2.0, and OAFlux+ISCCP) overestimate Qnet, with magnitude ranging from 6 to 27 W m-2, while two products underestimate Qnet by -6 W m-2 (JRA55) and -14 W m-2 (CORE.2). Together with the previous warm pool work of Song and Yu (2013), we show that CFSR, MERRA, NOCSv2.0, and OAFlux+ISCCP are warm-biased not only in the western Pacific warm pool but also in the Mediterranean Sea, while CORE.2 is cold-biased in both regions. The NCEP 1, 2, and ERA-Interim are cold-biased over the warm pool but warm-biased in the Mediterranean Sea.

Global Hail Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Werner, A.; Sanderson, M.; Hand, W.; Blyth, A.; Groenemeijer, P.; Kunz, M.; Puskeiler, M.; Saville, G.; Michel, G.

2012-04-01

Hail risk models are rare for the insurance industry. This is opposed to the fact that average annual hail losses can be large and hail dominates losses for many motor portfolios worldwide. Insufficient observational data, high spatio-temporal variability and data inhomogenity have hindered creation of credible models so far. In January 2012, a selected group of hail experts met at Willis in London in order to discuss ways to model hail risk at various scales. Discussions aimed at improving our understanding of hail occurrence and severity, and covered recent progress in the understanding of microphysical processes and climatological behaviour and hail vulnerability. The final outcome of the meeting was the formation of a global hail risk model initiative and the launch of a realistic global hail model in order to assess hail loss occurrence and severities for the globe. The following projects will be tackled: Microphysics of Hail and hail severity measures: Understand the physical drivers of hail and hailstone size development in different regions on the globe. Proposed factors include updraft and supercooled liquid water content in the troposphere. What are the thresholds drivers of hail formation around the globe? Hail Climatology: Consider ways to build a realistic global climatological set of hail events based on physical parameters including spatial variations in total availability of moisture, aerosols, among others, and using neural networks. Vulnerability, Exposure, and financial model: Use historical losses and event footprints available in the insurance market to approximate fragility distributions and damage potential for various hail sizes for property, motor, and agricultural business. Propagate uncertainty distributions and consider effects of policy conditions along with aggregating and disaggregating exposure and losses. This presentation provides an overview of ideas and tasks that lead towards a comprehensive global understanding of hail risk for the insurance sector.

United States housing, 2012

Treesearch

Delton Alderman

2013-01-01

Provides current and historical information on housing market in the United States. Information includes trends for housing permits and starts, housing completions for single and multifamily units, and sales and construction. This report will be updated annually.

SMOS brightness temperature assimilation into the Community Land Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rains, Dominik; Han, Xujun; Lievens, Hans; Montzka, Carsten; Verhoest, Niko E. C.

2017-11-01

SMOS (Soil Moisture and Ocean Salinity mission) brightness temperatures at a single incident angle are assimilated into the Community Land Model (CLM) across Australia to improve soil moisture simulations. Therefore, the data assimilation system DasPy is coupled to the local ensemble transform Kalman filter (LETKF) as well as to the Community Microwave Emission Model (CMEM). Brightness temperature climatologies are precomputed to enable the assimilation of brightness temperature anomalies, making use of 6 years of SMOS data (2010-2015). Mean correlation R with in situ measurements increases moderately from 0.61 to 0.68 (11 %) for upper soil layers if the root zone is included in the updates. A reduced improvement of 5 % is achieved if the assimilation is restricted to the upper soil layers. Root-zone simulations improve by 7 % when updating both the top layers and root zone, and by 4 % when only updating the top layers. Mean increments and increment standard deviations are compared for the experiments. The long-term assimilation impact is analysed by looking at a set of quantiles computed for soil moisture at each grid cell. Within hydrological monitoring systems, extreme dry or wet conditions are often defined via their relative occurrence, adding great importance to assimilation-induced quantile changes. Although still being limited now, longer L-band radiometer time series will become available and make model output improved by assimilating such data that are more usable for extreme event statistics.

Update in Diffuse Parenchymal Lung Disease 2013

PubMed Central

Kaminski, Naftali

2015-01-01

The period covered by this update can be considered as the most exciting period in idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis (IPF) research. It started with the identification of genetic variants that are associated with IPF in the majority of patients and continued with discovery of molecular and genetic biomarkers that predict distinct clinical presentations of patients with IPF and potential new biological mechanisms. More importantly, the period ends with the publication of two groundbreaking studies that confirmed that two drugs, pirfenidone and nintedanib, slowed disease progression, leading to a historic approval by the FDA. In this update, we describe these key advances, their scientific and significant clinical implications, and future directions. PMID:25635490

Data processing for the DMSP microwave radiometer system

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Rigone, J. L.; Stogryn, A. P.

1977-01-01

A software program was developed and tested to process microwave radiometry data to be acquired by the microwave sensor (SSM/T) on the Defense Meteorological Satellite Program spacecraft. The SSM/T 7-channel microwave radiometer and systems data will be data-linked to Air Force Global Weather Central (AFGWC) where they will be merged with ephemeris data prior to product processing for use in the AFGWC upper air data base (UADB). The overall system utilizes an integrated design to provide atmospheric temperature soundings for global applications. The fully automated processing at AFGWC was accomplished by four related computer processor programs to produce compatible UADB soundings, evaluate system performance, and update the a priori developed inversion matrices. Tests with simulated data produced results significantly better than climatology.

Fire regime characterization in Mediterranean ecosystems of Southern Italy

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lanorte, A.; Lasaponara, R.

2009-04-01

This paper addresses the wildfire regime in Mediterranean ecosystems of Southern Italy. Fire regimes refer to average fire conditions (including fire size, fire density, fire frequency, fire seasonality, fire intensity, fire severity, fire thresholds, etc.) occurring over a long period of time. Information on spatial pattern of forest fire locations is a key point in the study of the dynamics of fire disturbance, and allows us to improve the knowledge of past and current role of fire. Historical evidence clearly shows what did happen and this can fruitfully help to understand what is happening and what could happen in the next future. Mapping fire regimes is very challenging, because fire ocurrence features are the expression of the interactions between climate, fire, vegetation, topography, social factors. The main objective of this work is to provide a comprehensive characterization of the fire regime in Italy based on a recently updated national wildfire database. Fire data were obtained from the Italian National Forestry Service. This national database is comprised of information contained in individual fire reports completed for every fire that occurs on public lands in the Italian peninsula. Complete data were only available for 1996-2006 at the time we accessed the database, which determined the years we analysed. The primary fire history variables that we reported were number of fires, area burned, burning time and duration, and fire size (average size of individual fires) The wildfire records (wildfire area, location, time, vegetation) were analysed with other environmental (fuel availability and type), topographic features, and meteorological/climatological data. Results of our analysis could help better understand the different factors on the wildfire regime in Mediterranean ecosystems of Southern Italy.

A new Grid Product of Tropical Cyclone Precipitation (TCP) for North America from 1930 to 2013

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhu, L.

2015-12-01

We first developed a new method that collects daily TCP by using historical storm tracks and precipitation observation based on daily rain gauges in both U.S. and Mexico and calibrated it with satellite precipitation observation. We used a parametrized wind field to correct the possible under-estimations of precipitation in rain gauges. Grid interpolation parameters were optimized by testing different historical rain gauge densities and comparing our grid estimation of TCP and the observation from TRMM Multi-satellite Precipitation Analysis (3B42) by for the data available period from 1998 to 2013. The calibrated method was then used for the whole 94 years of TCP estimation. The preliminary result shows that the frequency of TCP events does not have significant change but the TCP intensity has significant increasing trends, especially in certain locations in North Carolina and Yucatan Peninsula in Mexico. This new long term TCP climatology can potentially assist model calibration and disaster prevention/mitigation.

Updated lateral attenuation in FAA's Integrated Noise Model

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2000-08-27

The lateral attenuation algorithm in the Federal Aviation Administration's (FAA) Integrated Noise Model (INM) has historically been based on the two regression equations described in the Society of Automotive Engineers' (SAE) Aerospace Information Re...

32 CFR 152.4 - Responsibilities.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-07-01

... changes to the MCM under OMB Circular A-19. 1 1 Available at http://www.whitehouse.gov/omb/circulars/index... historical records, and for publication of the updated editions of the MCM to be distributed throughout the...

Identification of Historical Veziragasi Aqueduct Using the Operational Modal Analysis

PubMed Central

Ercan, E.; Nuhoglu, A.

2014-01-01

This paper describes the results of a model updating study conducted on a historical aqueduct, called Veziragasi, in Turkey. The output-only modal identification results obtained from ambient vibration measurements of the structure were used to update a finite element model of the structure. For the purposes of developing a solid model of the structure, the dimensions of the structure, defects, and material degradations in the structure were determined in detail by making a measurement survey. For evaluation of the material properties of the structure, nondestructive and destructive testing methods were applied. The modal analysis of the structure was calculated by FEM. Then, a nondestructive dynamic test as well as operational modal analysis was carried out and dynamic properties were extracted. The natural frequencies and corresponding mode shapes were determined from both theoretical and experimental modal analyses and compared with each other. A good harmony was attained between mode shapes, but there were some differences between natural frequencies. The sources of the differences were introduced and the FEM model was updated by changing material parameters and boundary conditions. Finally, the real analytical model of the aqueduct was put forward and the results were discussed. PMID:24511287

A global drought climatology for the 3rd edition of the World Atlas of Desertification (WAD)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Spinoni, Jonathan; Carrao, Hugo; Naumann, Gustavo; Antofie, Tiberiu; Barbosa, Paulo; Vogt, Jürgen

2013-04-01

A new version of the World Atlas of Desertification (WAD) is being compiled in the framework of cooperation between the Joint Research Centre (JRC) of the European Commission and the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP). This initiative aims at mapping the global land degradation and desertification, as well as introducing the reader with complex interactions of geo-physical, socio-economic, and political aspects that affect the environmental sustainability. Recurrent extreme events resulting from climate change, such as more severe droughts, combined with non-adapted land use practices can affect the resilience of ecosystems tipping them into a less productive state. Thus, to describe the effects of climatological hazards on land degradation and desertification processes, we computed a World drought climatology that will be part of the 3rd edition of the WAD and will replace and update to 2010 the results presented in the 2nd edition in 1997. This paper presents the methodology used to compute three parameters included in the WAD drought climatology, i.e. drought frequency, intensity and duration, and discusses their spatio-temporal patterns both at global and continental scales. Because drought is mainly driven and triggered by a rainfall deficit, we chose the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) as the drought indicator to estimate our climatological parameters. The SPI is a statistical precipitation-based drought indicator widely used in drought-related studies. We calculated the SPI on three different accumulation periods: 3 months (SPI-3), 6 months (SPI-6), and 12 months (SPI-12), in order to take into account meteorological, agricultural, and hydrological drought-related features. Each quantity has been calculated on a monthly basis using the baseline period between January 1951 and December 2010. As data input, we used the Full Data Reanalysis Version 6.0 (0.5˚x0.5˚) of gridded monthly precipitation provided by the Global Precipitation Climatology Center (GPCC) of the Deutscher Wetterdienst (DWD). This dataset was selected after an extensive quality check on data reliability, homogeneity, and physical consistency. We defined the drought frequency as the number of months with SPI below -1 out of all months in different periods of 10-15 years between 1951 and 2010. For the drought intensity we analyzed the drought events with at least 3 consecutive months with SPI below -1. The drought duration is defined in an operative way: a drought starts when SPI first falls below -1 and it ends when it turns back positive (i.e. >0) for at least 2 consecutive months. The results show that in the last two decades, as compared to the long-term normal conditions, the regions most affected by drought events were Congo and Central Africa, North-Eastern China, the Australian South-Eastern coast, and the Middle East. In general, an increase in duration and intensity of drought events was found for almost all the Northern Hemisphere. We also focused on some regional case studies dealing with drought events in the Mediterranean region, the Horn of Africa, and South America in the last 15 years

Toward a Combined SAGE II-HALOE Aerosol Climatology: An Evaluation of HALOE Version 19 Stratospheric Aerosol Extinction Coefficient Observations

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Thomason, L. W.

2012-01-01

Herein, the Halogen Occultation Experiment (HALOE) aerosol extinction coefficient data is evaluated in the low aerosol loading period after 1996 as the first necessary step in a process that will eventually allow the production of a combined HALOE/SAGE II (Stratospheric Aerosol and Gas Experiment) aerosol climatology of derived aerosol products including surface area density. Based on these analyses, it is demonstrated that HALOE's 3.46 microns is of good quality above 19 km and suitable for scientific applications above that altitude. However, it is increasingly suspect at lower altitudes and should not be used below 17 km under any circumstances after 1996. The 3.40 microns is biased by about 10% throughout the lower stratosphere due to the failure to clear NO2 but otherwise appears to be a high quality product down to 15 km. The 2.45 and 5.26 micron aerosol extinction coefficient measurements are clearly biased and should not be used for scientific applications after the most intense parts of the Pinatubo period. Many of the issues in the aerosol data appear to be related to either the failure to clear some interfering gas species or doing so poorly. For instance, it is clear that the 3.40micronaerosol extinction coefficient measurements can be improved through the inclusion of an NO2 correction and could, in fact, end up as the highest quality overall HALOE aerosol extinction coefficient measurement. It also appears that the 2.45 and 5.26 micron channels may be improved by updating the Upper Atmosphere Pilot Database which is used as a resource for the removal of gas species otherwise not available from direct HALOE measurements. Finally, a simple model to demonstrate the promise of mixed visible/infrared aerosol extinction coefficient ensembles for the retrieval of bulk aerosol properties demonstrates that a combined HALOE/SAGE II aerosol climatology is feasible and may represent a substantial improvement over independently derived data sets.

PEP725 Pan European Phenological Database

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Koch, Elisabeth; Adler, Silke; Ungersböck, Markus; Zach-Hermann, Susanne

2010-05-01

Europe is in the fortunate situation that it has a long tradition in phenological networking: the history of collecting phenological data and using them in climatology has its starting point in 1751 when Carl von Linné outlined in his work Philosophia Botanica methods for compiling annual plant calendars of leaf opening, flowering, fruiting and leaf fall together with climatological observations "so as to show how areas differ". The Societas Meteorologicae Palatinae at Mannheim well known for its first European wide meteorological network also established a phenological network which was active from 1781 to 1792. Recently in most European countries, phenological observations have been carried out routinely for more than 50 years by different governmental and non governmental organisations and following different observation guidelines, the data stored at different places in different formats. This has been really hampering pan European studies, as one has to address many National Observations Programs (NOP) to get access to the data before one can start to bring them in a uniform style. From 2004 to 2005 the COST-action 725 was running with the main objective to establish a European reference data set of phenological observations that can be used for climatological purposes, especially climate monitoring, and detection of changes. So far the common database/reference data set of COST725 comprises 7687248 data from 7285 observation sites in 15 countries and International Phenological Gardens (IPG) spanning the timeframe from 1951 to 2000. ZAMG is hosting the database. In January 2010 PEP725 has started and will take over not only the part of maintaining, updating the database, but also to bring in phenological data from the time before 1951, developing better quality checking procedures and ensuring an open access to the database. An attractive webpage will make phenology and climate impacts on vegetation more visible in the public enabling a monitoring of vegetation development.

Climatological Processing of Radar Data for the TRMM Ground Validation Program

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kulie, Mark; Marks, David; Robinson, Michael; Silberstein, David; Wolff, David; Ferrier, Brad; Amitai, Eyal; Fisher, Brad; Wang, Jian-Xin; Augustine, David;

Area changes in U.S. forests and other major land uses, 1982 to 2002, with projections to 2062.

Treesearch

Ralph J. Alig; Andrew J. Plantinga; David Haim; Maribeth Todd

2010-01-01

This study updates an earlier assessment of the past, current, and prospective situation for the Nation’s land base. We describe area changes among major land uses on the U.S. land base for historical trends from 1982 to 2002 and projections out to 2062. Historically, 11 million acres of forest, cropland, and open space were converted to urban and other developed uses...

New production in the warm waters of the tropical Pacific Ocean

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Pena, M. Angelica; Lewis, Marlon R.; Cullen, John J.

1994-01-01

The average depth-integrated rate of new production in the tropical Pacific Ocean was estimated from a calculation of horizontal and vertical nitrate balance over the region enclosed by the climatological 26 C isotherm. The net turbulent flux of nitrate into the region was computed in terms of the climatological net surface heat flux and the nitrate-temperature relationship at the base of the 26 C isotherm. The net advective transport of nitrate into the region was estimated using the mean nitrate distribution obtained from the analysis of historical data and previous results of a general circulation model of the tropical Pacific. The rate of new production resulting from vertical turbulent fluxes of nitrate was found to be similar in magnitude to that due to advective transport. Most (about 75%) of the advective input of nitrate was due to the horizontal transport of nutrient-rich water from the eastern equatorial region rather than from equatorial upwelling. An average rate of new production of 14.5 - 16 g C/sq m/yr was found for the warm waters of the tropical Pacific region. These values are in good agreement with previous estimates for this region and are almost five times less than is estimated for the eastern equatorial Pacific, where most of the nutrient upwelling occurs.

Generation of Fine Scale Wind and Wave Climatologies

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vandenberghe, F. C.; Filipot, J.; Mouche, A.

2013-12-01

A tool to generate 'on demand' large databases of atmospheric parameters at high resolution has been developed for defense applications. The approach takes advantage of the zooming and relocation capabilities of the embedded domains that can be found in regional models like the community Weather Research and Forecast model (WRF). The WRF model is applied to dynamically downscale NNRP, CFSR and ERA40 global analyses and to generate long records, up to 30 years, of hourly gridded data over 200km2 domains at 3km grid increment. To insure accuracy, observational data from the NCAR ADP historical database are used in combination with the Four-Dimensional Data Assimilation (FDDA) techniques to constantly nudge the model analysis toward observations. The atmospheric model is coupled to secondary applications such as the NOAA's Wave Watch III model the Navy's APM Electromagnetic Propagation model, allowing the creation of high-resolution climatologies of surface winds, waves and electromagnetic propagation parameters. The system was applied at several coastal locations of the Mediterranean Sea where SAR wind and wave observations were available during the entire year of 2008. Statistical comparisons between the model output and SAR observations are presented. Issues related to the global input data, and the model drift, as well as the impact of the wind biases on wave simulations will be discussed.

Analysis of Non-Tropical Cyclone Induced Flood Events over South East Asia: Investigating Flood Frequency and Extremes in the Philippines

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Marcella, M. P.; CHEN, C.; Senarath, S. U.

2013-12-01

Much work has been completed in analyzing Southeast Asia's tropical cyclone climatology and the associated flooding throughout the region. Although, an active and strong monsoon season also brings major flooding across the Philippines resulting in the loss of lives and significant economic impacts, only a limited amount of research work has been conducted to investigate the frequency and flood loss estimates of these non-tropical cyclone (TC) storms. In this study, using the TRMM 3-hourly rainfall product, tropical cyclone rainfall is removed to construct a non-TC rainfall climatology across the region. Given this data, stochastically generated rainfall that is both spatially and temporally correlated across the country is created to generate a longer historically-based record of non-TC precipitation. After defining the rainfall criteria that constitutes a flood event based on observed floods and TRMM data, this event definition is applied to the stochastic catalog of rainfall to determine flood events. Subsequently, a thorough analysis of non-TC flood extremes, frequency, and distribution is completed for the country of the Philippines. As a result, the above methodology and datasets provide a unique opportunity to further study flood occurrences and their extremes across most of South East Asia.

PERSIANN-CDR Daily Precipitation Dataset for Hydrologic Applications and Climate Studies.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sorooshian, S.; Hsu, K. L.; Ashouri, H.; Braithwaite, D.; Nguyen, P.; Thorstensen, A. R.

2015-12-01

Precipitation Estimation from Remotely Sensed Information using Artificial Neural Network - Climate Data Record (PERSIANN-CDR) is a newly developed and released dataset which covers more than 3 decades (01/01/1983 - 03/31/2015 to date) of daily precipitation estimations at 0.25° resolution for 60°S-60°N latitude band. PERSIANN-CDR is processed using the archive of the Gridded Satellite IRWIN CDR (GridSat-B1) from the International Satellite Cloud Climatology Project (ISCCP), and the Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP) 2.5° monthly product for bias correction. The dataset has been released and made available for public access through NOAA's National Centers for Environmental Information (NCEI) (http://www1.ncdc.noaa.gov/pub/data/sds/cdr/CDRs/PERSIANN/Overview.pdf). PERSIANN-CDR has already shown its usefulness for a wide range of applications, including climate variability and change monitoring, hydrologic applications, and water resources system planning and management. This precipitation CDR data has also been used in studying the behavior of historical extreme precipitation events. Demonstration of PERSIANN-CDR data in detecting trends and variability of precipitation over the past 30 years, the potential usefulness of the dataset for evaluating climate model performance relevant to precipitation in retrospective mode, will be presented.

Operational quality control of daily precipitation using spatio-climatological consistency testing

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Scherrer, S. C.; Croci-Maspoli, M.; van Geijtenbeek, D.; Naguel, C.; Appenzeller, C.

2010-09-01

Quality control (QC) of meteorological data is of utmost importance for climate related decisions. The search for an effective automated QC of precipitation data has proven difficult and many weather services still use mainly manual inspection of daily precipitation including MeteoSwiss. However, man power limitations force many weather services to move towards less labour intensive and more automated QC with the challenge to keeping data quality high. In the last decade, several approaches have been presented to objectify daily precipitation QC. Here we present a spatio-climatological approach that will be implemented operationally at MeteoSwiss. It combines the information from the event based spatial distribution of everyday's precipitation field and the historical information of the interpolation error using different precipitation intensity intervals. Expert judgement shows that the system is able to detect potential outliers very well (hardly any missed errors) without creating too many false alarms that need human inspection. 50-80% of all flagged values have been classified as real errors by the data editor. This is much better than the roughly 15-20% using standard spatial regression tests. Very helpful in the QC process is the automatic redistribution of accumulated several day sums. Manual inspection in operations can be reduced and the QC of precipitation objectified substantially.

Climatology of Station Storm Rainfall in the Continental United States: Parameters of the Bartlett-Lewis and Poisson Rectangular Pulses Models

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hawk, Kelly Lynn; Eagleson, Peter S.

1992-01-01

The parameters of two stochastic models of point rainfall, the Bartlett-Lewis model and the Poisson rectangular pulses model, are estimated for each month of the year from the historical records of hourly precipitation at more than seventy first-order stations in the continental United States. The parameters are presented both in tabular form and as isopleths on maps. The Poisson rectangular pulses parameters are useful in implementing models of the land surface water balance. The Bartlett-Lewis parameters are useful in disaggregating precipitation to a time period shorter than that of existing observations. Information is also included on a floppy disk.

The Montaguto earth flow: nine years of observation and analysis

USGS Publications Warehouse

Guerriero, L.; Revellino, R; Grelle, G.; Diodato, N; Guadagno, F.M.; Coe, Jeffrey A.

2016-01-01

This paper summarizes the methods, results, and interpretation of analyses carried out between 2006 and 2015 at the Montaguto earth flow in southern Italy. We conducted a multi-temporal analysis of earth-flow activity to reconstruct the morphological and structural evolution of the flow. Data from field mapping were combined with a geometric reconstruction of the basal slip surface in order to investigate relations between basal-slip surface geometry and deformation styles of earth-flow material. Moreover, we reconstructed the long-term pattern of earth-flow movement using both historical observations and modeled hydrologic and climatic data. Hydrologic and climatic data were used to develop a Landslide Hydrological Climatological (LHC) indicator model.

Systematic recover of long high-resolution rainfall time series recorded by pluviographs during the 20th century.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Delitala, Alessandro M. S.; Deidda, Roberto; Mascaro, Giuseppe; Piga, Enrico; Querzoli, Giorgio

2010-05-01

During most of the 20th century, precipitation has been continuously measured by means of the so-called "pluviographs", i.e. rain gauges including a mechanical apparatus for continuously recording the depth of water from precipitation on specific strip charts, usually on a weekly basis. The signal recorded on such strips was visually examined by trained personnel on a regular basis, in order to extract the daily precipitation totals and the maximum precipitation intensities over short periods (from a few minutes to hours). The rest of the high-resolution information contained in the signal was usually not extracted, except for specific cases. A systematic recovering of the entire information at high temporal resolution contained in these precipitation signals would provide a fundamental database to improve the characterization of historical rainfall climatology during the previous century. The Department of Land Engineering of the University of Cagliari has recently developed and tested an automatic software, based on image analysis techniques, which is able to acquire the scanned images of the pluviograph strip charts, to automatically digitise the signal and to produce a digital database of continuous precipitation records at the highest possible temporal resolution, i.e. 5 to 10 minutes. Along with that, a significant amount of daily precipitation totals from the late 19th and the 20th century, either elaborated from pluviograph strip charts or simply derived from bucket rain gauges, still exists in paper form, but it has never been digitalized. Within a project partly-funded by the Operational Programme of the European Union "Italia-Francia Marittimo", the Regional Environmental Protection Agency of Sardinia and the University of Cagliari will recover both the high-resolution rainfall signals and the older time series of daily totals recorded by a large number of pluviographs belonging to the historical monitoring networks of the island of Sardinia. Such data will then be used to construct the high-resolution climatology of precipitation over Sardinia, both assuming stationary climate and slowly varying climate. Specific attention will be devoted to a set of critical hydrological basins, often affected by intense precipitation and flash floods. All information will then be made available to researchers, regional officers, technicians (e.g. hydraulic engineers) and the greater public interested into such information. The present poster describes the general scope of the E.U. project and the specific activities in the field of climatology of Sardinia rainfall that will be conducted as well as the expected results. A section will be dedicated to show how the pluviograph strips are automatically digitized.

The CO5 configuration of the 7 km Atlantic Margin Model: large-scale biases and sensitivity to forcing, physics options and vertical resolution

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

O'Dea, Enda; Furner, Rachel; Wakelin, Sarah; Siddorn, John; While, James; Sykes, Peter; King, Robert; Holt, Jason; Hewitt, Helene

2017-08-01

We describe the physical model component of the standard Coastal Ocean version 5 configuration (CO5) of the European north-west shelf (NWS). CO5 was developed jointly between the Met Office and the National Oceanography Centre. CO5 is designed with the seamless approach in mind, which allows for modelling of multiple timescales for a variety of applications from short-range ocean forecasting to climate projections. The configuration constitutes the basis of the latest update to the ocean and data assimilation components of the Met Office's operational Forecast Ocean Assimilation Model (FOAM) for the NWS. A 30.5-year non-assimilating control hindcast of CO5 was integrated from January 1981 to June 2012. Sensitivity simulations were conducted with reference to the control run. The control run is compared against a previous non-assimilating Proudman Oceanographic Laboratory Coastal Ocean Modelling System (POLCOMS) hindcast of the NWS. The CO5 control hindcast is shown to have much reduced biases compared to POLCOMS. Emphasis in the system description is weighted to updates in CO5 over previous versions. Updates include an increase in vertical resolution, a new vertical coordinate stretching function, the replacement of climatological riverine sources with the pan-European hydrological model E-HYPE, a new Baltic boundary condition and switching from directly imposed atmospheric model boundary fluxes to calculating the fluxes within the model using a bulk formula. Sensitivity tests of the updates are detailed with a view toward attributing observed changes in the new system from the previous system and suggesting future directions of research to further improve the system.

Webinar Presentation: The MATCH Study (Metals Assessment Targeting Community Health)

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

This presentation, The MATCH Study (Metals Assessment Targeting Community Health), was given at the NIEHS/EPA Children's Centers 2015 Webinar Series: Historical Perspectives and Research Updates from Previously Funded Children's Centers held on 11/18/15.

Honor Listing Update, 1990: A Variety Pack (Books for the Teenage Reader).

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Nilsen, Alleen Pace; Donelson, Ken

1991-01-01

Reviews eight books on the 1990 honor listing for adolescents including historical fiction, biographies, fictional stories of farm families, a personal experience account, a fantasy/occult romance, and a collection of short stories. (PRA)

United States housing, first quarter 2013

Treesearch

Delton Alderman

2014-01-01

Provides current and historical information on housing market in the United States. Information includes trends for housing permits and starts, housing under construction, and housing completions for single and multifamily units, and sales and construction. This report will be updated regularly.

Webinar Presentation: The Impact of Toxins on the Developing Brain

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

This presentation, The Impact of Toxins on the Developing Brain, was given at the NIEHS/EPA Children's Centers 2015 Webinar Series: Historical Perspectives and Research Updates from Previously Funded Children's Centers held on Nov. 18, 2015.

From cyclone tracks to the costs of European winter storms: A probabilistic loss assessment model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Renggli, Dominik; Corti, Thierry; Reese, Stefan; Wueest, Marc; Viktor, Elisabeth; Zimmerli, Peter

2014-05-01

The quantitative assessment of the potential losses of European winter storms is essential for the economic viability of a global reinsurance company. For this purpose, reinsurance companies generally use probabilistic loss assessment models. This work presents an innovative approach to develop physically meaningful probabilistic events for Swiss Re's new European winter storm loss model. The meteorological hazard component of the new model is based on cyclone and windstorm tracks identified in the 20th Century Reanalysis data. The knowledge of the evolution of winter storms both in time and space allows the physically meaningful perturbation of properties of historical events (e.g. track, intensity). The perturbation includes a random element but also takes the local climatology and the evolution of the historical event into account. The low-resolution wind footprints taken from 20th Century Reanalysis are processed by a statistical-dynamical downscaling to generate high-resolution footprints of the historical and probabilistic winter storm events. Downscaling transfer functions are generated using ENSEMBLES regional climate model data. The result is a set of reliable probabilistic events representing thousands of years. The event set is then combined with country- and risk-specific vulnerability functions and detailed market- or client-specific exposure information to compute (re-)insurance risk premiums.

Major Upgrades to the AIRS Version-6 Water Vapor Profile Methodology

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Susskind, Joel; Blaisdell, John; Iredell, Lena; Lee, Jae N.

2015-01-01

Additional changes in Version-6.19 include all previous updates made to the q(p) retrieval since Version-6: Modified Neural-Net q0(p) guess above the tropopause Linearly tapers the neural net guess to match climatology at 70 mb, not at the top of the atmosphereChanged the 11 trapezoid q(p) perturbation functions used in Version-6 so as to match the 24 functions used in T(p) retrieval step. These modifications resulted in improved water vapor profiles in Version-6.19 compared to Version-6.Version-6.19 is tested for all of August 2013 and August 2014, as well for select other days. Before finalized and operational in 2016, the V-6.19 can be acquired upon request for limited time intervals.

Projections of Declining Surface-Water Availability for the Southwestern United States

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Seager, Richard; Ting, Mingfang; Li, Cuihua; Naik, Naomi; Cook, Benjamin; Nakamura, Jennifer; Liu, Haibo

2012-01-01

16 of the CMIP5 models had all the data needed for this work for at least one simulation that was continuous from 1950 to 2040. Details of the models analyzed here are provided in Table S1. The model data analyzed here are available at http://strega.ldeo.columbia.edu:81/expert/home/.naomi/.AR5/.v2/.historical:rcp85/.mmm16/ a. Assessing the climatology of the models Despite increases in horizontal resolution of many models compared to their CMIP3 counterparts none of these models can adequately resolve the topography of the south west United States, such as the Sierra Nevada and Rocky Mountains and the associated orographic precipitation. This requires that caution be used when interpreting the results presented here. To assess the ability of the models to simulate the current hydroclimate, in Figure S1 we show the observed (from the Global Precipitation Climatology Centre gridded rain gauge data, (1)) monthly climatology of precipitation and the same for all the models and the multimodel mean for the California-Nevada, Colorado headwaters and Texas regions. The GPCC data uses rain gauges only and interpolates to regular grids of which we used the 1? by 1? one. Details of the data set can be found in (2). While the models apparently overestimate precipitation in California and Nevada the seasonal cycle with wet winters and dry summers is very well represented. It is also possible that the rain gauge observations are biased low by inadequately sampling the higher mountain regions. How ever the models might also be expected to underestimate orographic precipitation due to inadequate horizontal resolution. The 25 models are also too wet in the Colorado headwaters region but correctly represent the quite even distribution though the year. The bimodal distribution of precipitation in Texas, with peaks in May and September, and the absolute amounts, are well modeled but with the September peak too weak. The positive precipitation bias translates into a positive runoff bias for the Colorado headwaters as also shown in Figure S1. Here the observed runoff values are taken from simulations of the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) land surface-hydrology model (3) forced by observed meteorology (5) that were conducted as part of the North American Land Data Assimilation System project phase 2 ( (NLDAS-2), http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/mmb/nldas/. Runoff for California-Nevada is better simulated but there is a positive bias over Texas despite no strong precipitation bias. To check whether regional climate models better simulate P and runoff in these regions we analyzed the historical simulation with the Regional Climate Model version 3 driven by the National Centers for Environmental Prediction-Department of Energy Reanalysis 2 available from the North American Regional Climate Change Assessment Program (http://www.narccap.ucar.edu). This model configuration retained these biases in P and runoff although they were reduced in amplitude. Given these varying biases we plot P and P - E changes in actual values but apply the simplest bias correction possible to the runoff and soil moisture values and show the modeled changes in terms of percentages of the 20th Century model climatologies. A thorough assessment of the simulation of North American climate in CMIP5 models is conducted in Sheffield at al. (North American Climate in CMIP5 Experiments. Part I: Evaluation of 20th Century Continental and Regional Climatology, manuscript submit ted to J. Climate, available at http://www.climate.noaa.gov/index.jsp?pg=./cpo pa/ mapp/cmip5 publications.html). Sheffield et al. analyze the climatology of precipitation, surface air temperature, low level winds, moisture fluxes, runoff etc. and conclude that the main features of the hydrological cycle, including characteristics of the atmospheric moisture balance and its seasonality, are captured in the CMP5 models subject to biases in total precipitation amounts. We chose to use all available models instead of selecting some and rejecting others based on an assessment of model realism. This is in accord with the suggestions of Mote et al. for CMIP3 (4) but future work needs to revisit this matter for the case of the CMIP5 ensemble.

A review of statistical updating methods for clinical prediction models.

PubMed

Su, Ting-Li; Jaki, Thomas; Hickey, Graeme L; Buchan, Iain; Sperrin, Matthew

2018-01-01

A clinical prediction model is a tool for predicting healthcare outcomes, usually within a specific population and context. A common approach is to develop a new clinical prediction model for each population and context; however, this wastes potentially useful historical information. A better approach is to update or incorporate the existing clinical prediction models already developed for use in similar contexts or populations. In addition, clinical prediction models commonly become miscalibrated over time, and need replacing or updating. In this article, we review a range of approaches for re-using and updating clinical prediction models; these fall in into three main categories: simple coefficient updating, combining multiple previous clinical prediction models in a meta-model and dynamic updating of models. We evaluated the performance (discrimination and calibration) of the different strategies using data on mortality following cardiac surgery in the United Kingdom: We found that no single strategy performed sufficiently well to be used to the exclusion of the others. In conclusion, useful tools exist for updating existing clinical prediction models to a new population or context, and these should be implemented rather than developing a new clinical prediction model from scratch, using a breadth of complementary statistical methods.

Developing New Rainfall Estimates to Identify the Likelihood of Agricultural Drought in Mesoamerica

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pedreros, D. H.; Funk, C. C.; Husak, G. J.; Michaelsen, J.; Peterson, P.; Lasndsfeld, M.; Rowland, J.; Aguilar, L.; Rodriguez, M.

2012-12-01

The population in Central America was estimated at ~40 million people in 2009, with 65% in rural areas directly relying on local agricultural production for subsistence, and additional urban populations relying on regional production. Mapping rainfall patterns and values in Central America is a complex task due to the rough topography and the influence of two oceans on either side of this narrow land mass. Characterization of precipitation amounts both in time and space is of great importance for monitoring agricultural food production for food security analysis. With the goal of developing reliable rainfall fields, the Famine Early warning Systems Network (FEWS NET) has compiled a dense set of historical rainfall stations for Central America through cooperation with meteorological services and global databases. The station database covers the years 1900-present with the highest density between 1970-2011. Interpolating station data by themselves does not provide a reliable result because it ignores topographical influences which dominate the region. To account for this, climatological rainfall fields were used to support the interpolation of the station data using a modified Inverse Distance Weighting process. By blending the station data with the climatological fields, a historical rainfall database was compiled for 1970-2011 at a 5km resolution for every five day interval. This new database opens the door to analysis such as the impact of sea surface temperature on rainfall patterns, changes to the typical dry spell during the rainy season, characterization of drought frequency and rainfall trends, among others. This study uses the historical database to identify the frequency of agricultural drought in the region and explores possible changes in precipitation patterns during the past 40 years. A threshold of 500mm of rainfall during the growing season was used to define agricultural drought for maize. This threshold was selected based on assessments of crop conditions from previous seasons, and was identified as an amount roughly corresponding to significant crop loss for maize, a major crop in most of the region. Results identify areas in central Honduras and Nicaragua as well as the Altiplano region in Guatemala that experienced 15 seasons of agricultural drought for the period May-July during the years 1970-2000. Preliminary results show no clear trend in rainfall, but further investigation is needed to confirm that agricultural drought is not becoming more frequent in this region.

Variability of floods, droughts and windstorms over the past 500 years in Central Europe based on documentary and instrumental data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Brazdil, Rudolf

2016-04-01

Hydrological and meteorological extremes (HMEs) in Central Europe during the past 500 years can be reconstructed based on instrumental and documentary data. Documentary data about weather and related phenomena represent the basic source of information for historical climatology and hydrology, dealing with reconstruction of past climate and HMEs, their perception and impacts on human society. The paper presents the basic distribution of documentary data on (i) direct descriptions of HMEs and their proxies on the one hand and on (ii) individual and institutional data sources on the other. Several groups of documentary evidence such as narrative written records (annals, chronicles, memoirs), visual daily weather records, official and personal correspondence, special prints, financial and economic records (with particular attention to taxation data), newspapers, pictorial documentation, chronograms, epigraphic data, early instrumental observations, early scientific papers and communications are demonstrated with respect to extraction of information about HMEs, which concerns usually of their occurrence, severity, seasonality, meteorological causes, perception and human impacts. The paper further presents the analysis of 500-year variability of floods, droughts and windstorms on the base of series, created by combination of documentary and instrumental data. Results, advantages and drawbacks of such approach are documented on the examples from the Czech Lands. The analysis of floods concentrates on the River Vltava (Prague) and the River Elbe (Děčín) which show the highest frequency of floods occurring in the 19th century (mainly of winter synoptic type) and in the second half of the 16th century (summer synoptic type). Reported are also the most disastrous floods (August 1501, March and August 1598, February 1655, June 1675, February 1784, March 1845, February 1862, September 1890, August 2002) and the European context of floods in the severe winter 1783/84. Drought fluctuations in the Czech Lands are represented by the chronology of drought frequency on the one hand and by the reconstructed series of drought indices (SPI, SPEI, Z-Index and PDSI) on the other. Wind extremes are documented on the example of Czech windstorm chronology derived from documentary data (including tornadoes) with an example of "windstorm of the 18th century" (20-21 December 1740). Finally, scientific potential and perspectives of historical-climatological (historical-hydrological) research of HMEs are presented.

Snow depth on Arctic sea ice from historical in situ data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shalina, Elena V.; Sandven, Stein

2018-06-01

The snow data from the Soviet airborne expeditions Sever in the Arctic collected over several decades in March, April and May have been analyzed in this study. The Sever data included more measurements and covered a much wider area, particularly in the Eurasian marginal seas (Kara Sea, Laptev Sea, East Siberian Sea and Chukchi Sea), compared to the Soviet North Pole drifting stations. The latter collected data mainly in the central part of the Arctic Basin. The following snow parameters have been analyzed: average snow depth on the level ice (undisturbed snow) height and area of sastrugi, depth of snow dunes attached to ice ridges and depth of snow on hummocks. In the 1970s-1980s, in the central Arctic, the average depth of undisturbed snow was 21.2 cm, the depth of sastrugi (that occupied about 30 % of the ice surface) was 36.2 cm and the average depth of snow near hummocks and ridges was about 65 cm. For the marginal seas, the average depth of undisturbed snow on the level ice varied from 9.8 cm in the Laptev Sea to 15.3 cm in the East Siberian Sea, which had a larger fraction of multiyear ice. In the marginal seas the spatial variability of snow depth was characterized by standard deviation varying between 66 and 100 %. The average height of sastrugi varied from 23 cm to about 32 cm with standard deviation between 50 and 56 %. The average area covered by sastrugi in the marginal seas was estimated to be 36.5 % of the total ice area where sastrugi were observed. The main result of the study is a new snow depth climatology for the late winter using data from both the Sever expeditions and the North Pole drifting stations. The snow load on the ice observed by Sever expeditions has been described as a combination of the depth of undisturbed snow on the level ice and snow depth of sastrugi weighted in proportion to the sastrugi area. The height of snow accumulated near the ice ridges was not included in the calculations because there are no estimates of the area covered by those features from the Sever expeditions. The effect of not including that data can lead to some underestimation of the average snow depth. The new climatology refines the description of snow depth in the central Arctic compared to the results by Warren et al. (1999) and provides additional detailed data in the marginal seas. The snow depth climatology is based on 94 % Sever data and 6 % North Pole data. The new climatology shows lower snow depth in the central Arctic comparing to Warren climatology and more detailed data in the Eurasian seas.

Online Updating of Statistical Inference in the Big Data Setting.

PubMed

Schifano, Elizabeth D; Wu, Jing; Wang, Chun; Yan, Jun; Chen, Ming-Hui

2016-01-01

We present statistical methods for big data arising from online analytical processing, where large amounts of data arrive in streams and require fast analysis without storage/access to the historical data. In particular, we develop iterative estimating algorithms and statistical inferences for linear models and estimating equations that update as new data arrive. These algorithms are computationally efficient, minimally storage-intensive, and allow for possible rank deficiencies in the subset design matrices due to rare-event covariates. Within the linear model setting, the proposed online-updating framework leads to predictive residual tests that can be used to assess the goodness-of-fit of the hypothesized model. We also propose a new online-updating estimator under the estimating equation setting. Theoretical properties of the goodness-of-fit tests and proposed estimators are examined in detail. In simulation studies and real data applications, our estimator compares favorably with competing approaches under the estimating equation setting.

Verification of temperature, precipitation, and streamflow forecasts from the NOAA/NWS Hydrologic Ensemble Forecast Service (HEFS): 1. Experimental design and forcing verification

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Brown, James D.; Wu, Limin; He, Minxue; Regonda, Satish; Lee, Haksu; Seo, Dong-Jun

2014-11-01

Retrospective forecasts of precipitation, temperature, and streamflow were generated with the Hydrologic Ensemble Forecast Service (HEFS) of the U.S. National Weather Service (NWS) for a 20-year period between 1979 and 1999. The hindcasts were produced for two basins in each of four River Forecast Centers (RFCs), namely the Arkansas-Red Basin RFC, the Colorado Basin RFC, the California-Nevada RFC, and the Middle Atlantic RFC. Precipitation and temperature forecasts were produced with the HEFS Meteorological Ensemble Forecast Processor (MEFP). Inputs to the MEFP comprised ;raw; precipitation and temperature forecasts from the frozen (circa 1997) version of the NWS Global Forecast System (GFS) and a climatological ensemble, which involved resampling historical observations in a moving window around the forecast valid date (;resampled climatology;). In both cases, the forecast horizon was 1-14 days. This paper outlines the hindcasting and verification strategy, and then focuses on the quality of the temperature and precipitation forecasts from the MEFP. A companion paper focuses on the quality of the streamflow forecasts from the HEFS. In general, the precipitation forecasts are more skillful than resampled climatology during the first week, but comprise little or no skill during the second week. In contrast, the temperature forecasts improve upon resampled climatology at all forecast lead times. However, there are notable differences among RFCs and for different seasons, aggregation periods and magnitudes of the observed and forecast variables, both for precipitation and temperature. For example, the MEFP-GFS precipitation forecasts show the highest correlations and greatest skill in the California Nevada RFC, particularly during the wet season (November-April). While generally reliable, the MEFP forecasts typically underestimate the largest observed precipitation amounts (a Type-II conditional bias). As a statistical technique, the MEFP cannot detect, and thus appropriately correct for, conditions that are undetected by the GFS. The calibration of the MEFP to provide reliable and skillful forecasts of a range of precipitation amounts (not only large amounts) is a secondary factor responsible for these Type-II conditional biases. Interpretation of the verification results leads to guidance on the expected performance and limitations of the MEFP, together with recommendations on future enhancements.

A Total Ozone Dependent Ozone Profile Climatology Based on Ozone-Sondes and Aura MLS Data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Labow, G. J.; McPeters, R. D.; Ziemke, J. R.

2014-12-01

A new total ozone-based ozone profile climatology has been created for use in satellite and/or ground based ozone retrievals. This climatology was formed by combining data from the Microwave Limb Sounder (MLS) with data from balloon sondes and binned by zone and total ozone. Because profile shape varies with total column ozone, this climatology better captures the ozone variations than the previously used seasonal climatologies, especially near the tropopause. This is significantly different than ozone climatologies used in the past as there is no time component. The MLS instrument on Aura has excellent latitude coverage and measures ozone profiles daily from the upper troposphere to the lower mesosphere at ~3.5 km resolution. Almost a million individual MLS ozone measurements are merged with data from over 55,000 ozonesondes which are then binned as a function of total ozone. The climatology consists of average ozone profiles as a function of total ozone for six 30 degree latitude bands covering altitudes from 0-75 km (in Z* pressure altitude coordinates). This new climatology better represents the profile shape as a function of total ozone than previous climatologies and shows some remarkable and somewhat unexpected correlations between total ozone and ozone in the lower altitudes, particularly in the lower and middle troposphere. These data can also be used to infer biases and errors in either the MLS retrievals or ozone sondes.

Ozone Climatological Profiles for Version 8 TOMS and SBUV Retrievals

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

McPeters, R. D.; Logan, J. A.; Labow, G. J.

2003-01-01

A new altitude dependent ozone climatology has been produced for use with the latest Total Ozone Mapping Spectrometer (TOMS) and Solar Backscatter Ultraviolet (SBUV) retrieval algorithms. The climatology consists of monthly average profiles for ten degree latitude zones covering from 0 to 60 km. The climatology was formed by combining data from SAGE II (1988 to 2000) and MLS (1991-1999) with data from balloon sondes (1988-2002). Ozone below about 20 km is based on balloons sondes, while ozone above 30 km is based on satellite measurements. The profiles join smoothly between 20 and 30 km. The ozone climatology in the southern hemisphere and tropics has been greatly enhanced in recent years by the addition of balloon sonde stations under the SHADOZ (Southern Hemisphere Additional Ozonesondes) program. A major source of error in the TOMS and SBUV retrieval of total column ozone comes from their reduced sensitivity to ozone in the lower troposphere. An accurate climatology for the retrieval a priori is important for reducing this error on the average. The new climatology follows the seasonal behavior of tropospheric ozone and reflects its hemispheric asymmetry. Comparisons of TOMS version 8 ozone with ground stations show an improvement due in part to the new climatology.

Copula-based assessment of the relationship between food peaks and flood volumes using information on historical floods by Bayesian Monte Carlo Markov Chain simulations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gaál, Ladislav; Szolgay, Ján.; Bacigál, Tomáå.¡; Kohnová, Silvia

2010-05-01

Copula-based estimation methods of hydro-climatological extremes have increasingly been gaining attention of researchers and practitioners in the last couple of years. Unlike the traditional estimation methods which are based on bivariate cumulative distribution functions (CDFs), copulas are a relatively flexible tool of statistics that allow for modelling dependencies between two or more variables such as flood peaks and flood volumes without making strict assumptions on the marginal distributions. The dependence structure and the reliability of the joint estimates of hydro-climatological extremes, mainly in the right tail of the joint CDF not only depends on the particular copula adopted but also on the data available for the estimation of the marginal distributions of the individual variables. Generally, data samples for frequency modelling have limited temporal extent, which is a considerable drawback of frequency analyses in practice. Therefore, it is advised to deal with statistical methods that improve any part of the process of copula construction and result in more reliable design values of hydrological variables. The scarcity of the data sample mostly in the extreme tail of the joint CDF can be bypassed, e.g., by using a considerably larger amount of simulated data by rainfall-runoff analysis or by including historical information on the variables under study. The latter approach of data extension is used here to make the quantile estimates of the individual marginals of the copula more reliable. In the presented paper it is proposed to use historical information in the frequency analysis of the marginal distributions in the framework of Bayesian Monte Carlo Markov Chain (MCMC) simulations. Generally, a Bayesian approach allows for a straightforward combination of different sources of information on floods (e.g. flood data from systematic measurements and historical flood records, respectively) in terms of a product of the corresponding likelihood functions. On the other hand, the MCMC algorithm is a numerical approach for sampling from the likelihood distributions. The Bayesian MCMC methods therefore provide an attractive way to estimate the uncertainty in parameters and quantile metrics of frequency distributions. The applicability of the method is demonstrated in a case study of the hydroelectric power station Orlík on the Vltava River. This site has a key role in the flood prevention of Prague, the capital city of the Czech Republic. The record length of the available flood data is 126 years from the period 1877-2002, while the flood event observed in 2002 that caused extensive damages and numerous casualties is treated as a historic one. To estimate the joint probabilities of flood peaks and volumes, different copulas are fitted and their goodness-of-fit are evaluated by bootstrap simulations. Finally, selected quantiles of flood volumes conditioned on given flood peaks are derived and compared with those obtained by the traditional method used in the practice of water management specialists of the Vltava River.

Use of the 1993 AASHTO Guide, MEPDG and historical performance to update the WSDOT Pavement Design Catalog.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2011-09-01

"This report describes the preparation of a revised pavement thickness design catalog for the Washington State Department of Transportation (WSDOT) using the 1993 American Association of State Highway and Transportation Officials (AASHTO) Guide, the ...

MU-SPIN Project Update

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Harrington, James L., Jr.

2000-01-01

The Minority University Space Interdisciplinary (MUSPIN) Network project is a comprehensive outreach and education initiative that focuses on the transfer of advanced computer networking technologies and relevant science to Historically Black Colleges and Universities (HBCU's) and Other Minority Universities (OMU's) for supporting multi-disciplinary education research.

42 CFR 414.44 - Transition rules.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-10-01

... § 414.44 Transition rules. (a) Adjusted historical payment basis—(1) All services other than radiology and nuclear medicine services. For all physician services other than radiology services, furnished in... charge, adjusted by the update established for CY 1992. (2) Radiology services. For radiology services...

Decadal climate simulations using the Climate Forecast System (CFS) coupled to the SSiB2 land surface model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

De Sales, F.; Xue, Y.; Marx, L.; Ek, M. B.

2016-12-01

The Simplified Simple Biophysical version 2 (SSiB2) model was implemented in the NCEP Climate Forecast System (CFS) for two 30-yr simulations. One simulation was initialized from CFS reanalysis data (EXP1), and the other from a 10-yr spin-up run (EXP2), in which the ocean model was allowed to run freely while the atmosphere and land surface were maintained constant to adjust inconsistencies in the initial conditions. EXP2 also includes an update in the SSiB2's average soil water potential calculation. The material presented highlights the model's performance in predicting spatial and temporal variability of monthly precipitation and surface temperature and aims at determining the optimum configuration for longer simulations. In general, the model is able to reproduce the main features of large-scale precipitation, with spatial correlation (scorr) and RMSE of 0.8 and 1.4 mm day-1, respectively. A split ITCZ pattern is observed in the Pacific and Indian oceans, which results in dry biases along the equator and wet-bias bands to its north and south. Positive biases are also observed in the Atlantic ITCZ. The model generates consistent surface temperature climatology (scorr > 0.9, RMSE= 2.3°C). Warm biases are observed especially over southern Asia during summer. Both experiments produce similar precipitation climatology patterns with similar biases. EXP2, however, improves the temperature simulation by reducing the global bias by 48% and 26% during boreal winter and summer, respectively; and improves the temperature decadal variability for many areas. Moreover, EXP2 generates a better continental surface air warming trend. In the attempt to improve the precipitation decadal variability in the simulations, remotely-sensed LAI and vegetation cover fraction have been implemented in the CFS/SSiB2 to substitute the look-up table originally used in EXP1 and 2. The satellite vegetation data has been processed into global monthly maps which are continuous updated throughout the simulation. Results from this experiment will also be presented.

Aerosol Robotic Network (AERONET) Version 3 Aerosol Optical Depth and Inversion Products

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Giles, D. M.; Holben, B. N.; Eck, T. F.; Smirnov, A.; Sinyuk, A.; Schafer, J.; Sorokin, M. G.; Slutsker, I.

2017-12-01

The Aerosol Robotic Network (AERONET) surface-based aerosol optical depth (AOD) database has been a principal component of many Earth science remote sensing applications and modelling for more than two decades. During this time, the AERONET AOD database had utilized a semiautomatic quality assurance approach (Smirnov et al., 2000). Data quality automation developed for AERONET Version 3 (V3) was achieved by augmenting and improving upon the combination of Version 2 (V2) automatic and manual procedures to provide a more refined near real time (NRT) and historical worldwide database of AOD. The combined effect of these new changes provides a historical V3 AOD Level 2.0 data set comparable to V2 Level 2.0 AOD. The recently released V3 Level 2.0 AOD product uses Level 1.5 data with automated cloud screening and quality controls and applies pre-field and post-field calibrations and wavelength-dependent temperature characterizations. For V3, the AERONET aerosol retrieval code inverts AOD and almucantar sky radiances using a full vector radiative transfer called Successive ORDers of scattering (SORD; Korkin et al., 2017). The full vector code allows for potentially improving the real part of the complex index of refraction and the sphericity parameter and computing the radiation field in the UV (e.g., 380nm) and degree of linear depolarization. Effective lidar ratio and depolarization ratio products are also available with the V3 inversion release. Inputs to the inversion code were updated to the accommodate H2O, O3 and NO2 absorption to be consistent with the computation of V3 AOD. All of the inversion products are associated with estimated uncertainties that include the random error plus biases due to the uncertainty in measured AOD, absolute sky radiance calibration, and retrieved MODIS BRDF for snow-free and snow covered surfaces. The V3 inversion products use the same data quality assurance criteria as V2 inversions (Holben et al. 2006). The entire AERONET V3 almucantar inversion database was computed using the NASA High End Computing resources at NASA Ames Research Center and NASA Goddard Space Flight Center. In addition to a description of data products, this presentation will provide a comparison of the V3 AOD and inversion climatology comparison of the V3 Level 2.0 and V2 Level 2.0 for sites with varying aerosol types.

Southern Ocean Seasonal Net Production from Satellite, Atmosphere, and Ocean Data Sets

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Keeling, Ralph F.; Campbell, J. (Technical Monitor)

2002-01-01

A new climatology of monthly air-sea O2 flux was developed using the net air-sea heat flux as a template for spatial and temporal interpolation of sparse hydrographic data. The climatology improves upon the previous climatology of Najjar and Keeling in the Southern Hemisphere, where the heat-based approach helps to overcome limitations due to sparse data coverage. The climatology is used to make comparisons with productivity derived from CZCS images. The climatology is also used in support of an investigation of the plausible impact of recent global warming an oceanic O2 inventories.

Modeling land surface hydrology sensitivity in the Colorado River Basin to historical climate variability

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Whitney, K. M.; Bohn, T. J.; Vivoni, E. R.

2017-12-01

Over the past century, the Colorado River Basin (CRB) has experienced substantial warming and interannual climate variations, including prolonged drought periods. These patterns are projected to accelerate in the 21st century, with major consequences for water resources in the southwestern U.S. and northwestern Mexico. To evaluate future projections appropriately, however, it is important to first quantify the regional hydrologic response to historical climate variability in the CRB. In the current effort, we force the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) land surface hydrology model and a river routing model with historical meteorological data to estimate water balance components and naturalized streamflow response in the CRB at 1/16o spatial resolution and at an hourly time step over the period 1950-2013. We utilize data products from satellite remote sensing to specify spatiotemporal variations in vegetation parameters and include an irrigation scheme to account for evapotranspiration from croplands in the CRB. Furthermore, we apply recent modifications in VIC to more properly account for bare soil evaporation in arid and semiarid ecosystems. Analyses of the historical model simulations are focused on quantifying the spatiotemporal variability of the soil moisture, evapotranspiration, streamflow and snowmelt response and their linkages to extreme meteorological events. Here we characterize the annual and monthly distributions, trends, and statistical extremes and central tendencies of water balance terms averaged over the CRB and its sub-basins for the entire study period 1950-2013. By building a model-based hydrologic climatology and catalog of historical extreme events for the CRB, we aim to construct a basis for future activities that analyze the impact of statistically downscaled climate change projections on the hydrology of the CRB and its urban areas.

High-resolution precipitation database for the last two centuries in Italy: climatologies and anomalies

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Crespi, Alice; Brunetti, Michele; Maugeri, Maurizio

2017-04-01

The availability of gridded high-resolution spatial climatologies and corresponding secular records has acquired an increasing importance in the recent years both to research purposes and as decision-support tools in the management of natural resources and economical activities. High-resolution monthly precipitation climatologies for Italy were computed by gridding on a 30-arc-second-resolution Digital Elevation Model (DEM) the precipitation normals (1961-1990) obtained from a quality-controlled dataset of about 6200 stations covering the Italian surface and part of the Northern neighbouring regions. Starting from the assumption that the precipitation distribution is strongly influenced by orography, especially elevation, a local weighted linear regression (LWLR) of precipitation versus elevation was performed at each DEM cell. The regression coefficients for each cell were estimated by selecting the stations with the highest weights in which the distances and the level of similarity between the station cells and the considered grid cell, in terms of orographic features, are taken into account. An optimisation procedure was then set up in order to define, for each month and for each grid cell, the most suitable decreasing coefficients for the weighting factors which enter in the LWLR scheme. The model was validated by the comparison with the results provided by inverse distance weighting (IDW) applied both to station normals and to the residuals of a global regression of station normals versus elevation. In both cases, the LWLR leave-one-out reconstructions show the best agreement with the observed station normals, especially when considering specific station clusters (high elevation sites for example). After producing the high-resolution precipitation climatological field, the temporal component on the high-resolution grid was obtained by following the anomaly method. It is based on the assumption that the spatio-temporal structure of the signal of a meteorological variable over a certain area can be described by the superimposition of two independent fields: the climatologies and the anomalies, i.e. the departures from the normal values. The secular precipitation anomaly records were thus estimated for each cell of the grid by averaging the anomaly values of neighbouring stations, by means of Gaussian weighting functions, taking into account both the distance and the elevation differences between the stations and the considered grid cell. The local secular precipitation records were then obtained by multiplying the local estimated anomalies for the corresponding 1961-1990 normals. To compute the anomaly field, a different dataset was used by selecting the stations with the longest series and extending them both to the past, retrieving data from non-digitised archives, and to the more recent decades. In particular, after a careful procedure of updating, quality-check and homogenisation of series, this methodology was applied on two Italian areas characterised by very different orography: Sardinia region and the Alpine areas within Adda basin.

The persistence and characteristics of Chinook salmon migrations to the Upper Klamath River prior to exclusion by dams

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hamilton, John B; Rondorf, Dennis W.; Tinniswood, William; Leary, Ryan J; Mayer, Tim; Gavette, Charleen; Casal, Lynne A.

2016-01-01

In this research article, John Hamilton and his co-authors present extensive new research and information gathered since a 2005 publication on the historical evidence of anadromomous fish distribution in the Upper Klamath River watershed. Using historical accounts from early explorers and ethnographers to early-twentieth-century photographs, newspaper accounts, and government reports, the authors provide a more complete record of past salmon migrations. The updated record “substantiate[s] the historical persistence of salmon, their migration characteristics, and the broad population baseline that will be key to future commercial, recreational, and Tribal fisheries in the Klamath River and beyond.” During a time when salmon restoration plans are being considered in the region, the historical record can serve as guidance to once again establish diverse and thriving populations.

The Global Historical Climatology Network: Long-Term Monthly Temperature, Precipitation, Sea Level Pressure, and Station Pressure Data (NDP-041)

DOE Data Explorer

Vose, Russell S. [Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis Center (CDIAC),; Schmoyer, Richard L.; Steurer, Peter M. [National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), National Climatic Data Center, Asheville, NC (USA); Peterson, Thomas C. [National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), National Climatic Data Center, Asheville, NC (USA); Heim, Richard [National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), National Climatic Data Center, Asheville, NC (USA); Karl, Thomas R. [National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), National Climatic Data Center, Asheville, NC (USA); Eischeid, Jon K. [Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences, Boulder, CO (USA)

1992-01-01

The GHCN data base contains mean monthly temperature data (in tenths of degrees celsius) for 6039 stations throughout the world. The majority (61%) have records for fewer than 50 years, but a significant proportion (10%) have records in excess of 100 years. It also contains total monthly precipitation data (in tenths of millimeters) for 7533 stations throughout the world. A slight majority (55%) have records in excess of 50 years, and a significant proportion (13%) have records in excess of 100 years. Also in this content is mean monthly sea level pressure data (in tenths of millibars) for 1883 stations throughout the world. The monthly station pressure data from those stations is also available here.

Introduction to Global Urban Climatology

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Varquez, A. C. G.; Kanda, M.; Kawano, N.; Darmanto, N. S.; Dong, Y.

2016-12-01

Urban heat island (UHI) is a widely investigated phenomenon in the field of urban climate characterized by the warming of urban areas relative to its surrounding rural environs. Being able to understand the mechanism behind the UHI formation of a city and distinguish its impact from that of global climate change is indispensable when identifying adaptation and mitigation strategies. However, the lack of UHI studies many cities especially for developing countries makes it difficult to generalize the mechanism for UHI formation. Thus, there is an impending demand for studies that focus on the simultaneous analyses of UHI and its trends throughout the world. Hence, we propose a subfield of urban climatology, called "global urban climatology" (GUC), which mainly focuses on the uniform understanding of urban climates across all cities, globally. By using globally applicable methodologies to quantify and compare urban heat islands of cities with diverse backgrounds, including their geography, climate, socio-demography, and other factors, a universal understanding of the mechanisms underlying the formation of the phenomenon can be established. The implementation of GUC involves the use of globally acquired historical observation networks, gridded meteorological parameters from climate models, global geographic information system datasets; the construction of a distributed urban parameter database; and the development of techniques necessary to model the urban climate. Research under GUC can be categorized into three approaches. The collaborative approach (1st) relies on the collection of data from micro-scale experiments conducted worldwide with the aid or development of professional social networking platforms; the analytical approach (2nd) relies on the use of global weather station datasets and their corresponding objectively analysed global outputs; and the numerical approach (3rd) relies on the global estimation of high-resolution urban-representative parameters as inputs to global weather modelling. The GUC concept, the pathways through which GUC assessments can be undertaken, and current implementations are introduced. Acknowledgment: This research was supported by the Environment Research and Technology Development Fund (S-14) of the Ministry of the Environment, Japan.

Pacific Region Integrated Climatology Information Products (PRICIP) Derived-data Products

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Marra, J. J.

2008-12-01

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) Integrated Data and Environmental Applications (IDEA) Center has initiated the Pacific Region Integrated Climatology Information Products (PRICIP) project to improve our understanding of patterns and trends of storm frequency and intensity - 'storminess'- within the Pacific region and develop a suite of integrated data and information products. Strong winds, heavy rains, and high seas theme-specific data integration and product development teams have been formed to carry out this work. These teams are comprised of recognized agency and university- based experts in the area of climate-related processes that govern storminess. They include representatives from NOAA's National Climatic Data Center (NCDC), Center for Operational Products and Services (CO-OPS), and National Weather Service (NWS), as well as the University of Hawai'i, University of Alaska, University of Guam, and Oregon State University. Each team is developing regional climatological overviews, identifying corresponding extremes indices, establishing data treatment and analysis protocols, and conducting analyses to establish baseline statistics, long term trends, patterns of variability, and event return recurrence intervals via Generalized Extreme Value (GEV) analyses. Preliminary results of these analyses can be viewed via a beta-version of a Google map- based query utility (http://www.pricip.org/ddp.php ). Data sources for these analyses include NOAA's Integrated Surface Hourly (ISH) mean sea level pressure and wind speed data; the Global Historical Climate Network (GHCN) precipitation dataset; the National Water Level Observing Network (NWLON) sea level station records; the National Data Buoy Center (NDBC) wave buoy records; the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers" Coastal Data Information (CDIP) buoy data, and other data. The northern and central north Pacific, which includes Alaska, the Pacific Northwest, and Hawai'i, have been targeted as initial priority areas. It is envisioned that the results of this effort will be used by emergency managers, mitigation planners, government agencies and decision-makers in key sectors including water and natural resource management, agriculture and fisheries, transportation and communication, and recreation and tourism.

Analysis of southeast Australian zooplankton observations of 1938-42 using synoptic oceanographic conditions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Baird, Mark E.; Everett, Jason D.; Suthers, Iain M.

2011-03-01

The research vessel Warreen obtained 1742 planktonic samples along the continental shelf and slope of southeast Australia from 1938-42, representing the earliest spatially and temporally resolved zooplankton data from Australian marine waters. In this paper, Warreen observations along the southeast Australian seaboard from 28°S to 38°S are interpreted based on synoptic meteorological and oceanographic conditions and ocean climatologies. Meteorological conditions are based on the NOAA-CIRES 20th Century Reanalysis Project; oceanographic conditions use Warreen hydrological observations, and the ocean climatology is the CSIRO Atlas of Regional Seas. The Warreen observations were undertaken in waters on average 0.45 °C cooler than the climatological average, and included the longest duration El Niño of the 20th century. In northern New South Wales (NSW), week time-scale events dominate zooplankton response. In August 1940 an unusual winter upwelling event occurred in northern NSW driven by a stronger than average East Australian Current (EAC) and anomalous northerly winds that resulted in high salp and larvacean abundance. In January 1941 a strong upwelling event between 28° and 33°S resulted in a filament of upwelled water being advected south and alongshore, which was low in zooplankton biovolume. In southern NSW a seasonal cycle in physical and planktonic characteristics is observed. In January 1941 the poleward extension of the EAC was strong, advecting more tropical tunicate species southward. Zooplankton abundance and distribution on the continental shelf and slope are more dependent on weekly to monthly timescales on local oceanographic and meteorological conditions than continental-scale interannual trends. The interpretation of historical zooplankton observations of the waters off southeast Australia for the purpose of quantifying anthropogenic impacts will be improved with the use of regional hindcasts of synoptic ocean and atmospheric weather that can explain some of the physically forced natural variability.

Rhetoric of India: A Selected, Interdisciplinary Bibliography.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Chandler, Daniel Ross

Focusing on the philosophical and religious literature of India, this updated annotated bibliography discusses 33 books published between 1961 and 1993. Books annotated in the bibliography discuss: the foundations of Indian culture, the rhetorical tradition, Indian literary traditions, the historical-cultural context, toward a rhetorical-cultural…

77 FR 66483 - Public Comment on the Draft Federal Urban Design Element and the Draft Update to the Federal...

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2012-11-05

... NCPC review required by law. The new Federal Urban Design Element provides policies that will guide the... Historic Features Element will be available online at http://www.ncpc.gov/compplan not later than November...

When El Nino Rages: How Satellite Data Can Help Water-Stressed Islands

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kruk, M. C.; Sutton, J. R. P.; Luchetti, N.; Wright, E.; Marra, J. J.

2016-02-01

The United States Affiliated Pacific Islands (USAPI) are highly susceptible to extreme precipitation events such as drought and flooding, which directly affect their freshwater availability. Precipitation distribution differs by sub-region, and is predominantly influenced by phases of the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO). Forecasters currently rely on ENSO climatologies from sparse in situ station data to inform their precipitation outlooks. To address this spatial gap, a unique NOAA/NASA collaborative project updated the ENSO-based rainfall climatology for the Exclusive Economic Zones (EEZ's) encompassing Hawaii and the USAPI using NOAA's 15km PERSIANN Climate Data Record. This data provided a 30-year record (1984-2015) of daily precipitation at 0.25° resolution, which was used to calculate monthly, seasonal, and yearly precipitation average. The 478-page satellite-derived reference atlas not only illustrates the long-term average rainfall distribution by month, but also shows the percent departure from average for each three-month season based on the Oceanic Niño Index (ONI) for weak, moderate, and strong ENSO phases. Local weather service offices are already using the atlas to better understand precipitation patterns across their regions, and as such are able to produce more accurate forecasts during different ENSO phases to inform adaptation, conservation, and mitigation options for drought and flooding events. The presentation will showcase the development of the atlas, highlight some of the challenges encountered, and demonstrate how CDRs can be used to inform decision-making.

Extreme Meteorological Events from documentary sources on old Aragon Kingdom, AD1000-1500. Firsts results after a systematic approach to data availability

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rama, Eduard; Barriendos, Mariano

2010-05-01

Extreme Meteorological Events from documentary sources on old Aragon Kingdom, AD 1000-1500. Firsts results after a systematic approach to data availability Eduard Rama1, Mariano Barriendos2 1 Research Laboratory on Climate, Scientific Park of Barcelona 2 Department of Modern History, University of Barcelona Research on documentary sources focused on detection and reconstruction of climatic data and extreme meteorological events is an activity with notable tradition on palaeoclimatic discipline. Historical climatology offers a good source of climatic and environmental proxy-data. This information covers past centuries establishing good overlapping with instrumental data availability period. Best qualities of historical information are a high temporal resolution, an exact and reliable datation, and complementary information related to environmental and human impacts. Historical climatology offers a large number of data chronologies for Europe covering historiographical periods from Low Middle Age to Contemporary Age (14th to 20th Centuries). Into framework of EU IP Millennium, a systematic research assumed the challenge to collect data from High Middle Age. Documentary sources are discontinuous and scattered, information is not precise and reliable, but all possible original information can be useful to characterize the Warm Medieval Period, most recent climatic period similar to possible climate of next future, at least concerning thermic conditions. Present work shows a systematic effort on documentary sources of Old Aragon Kingdom (actually, spanish regions of Catalonia, Aragon, Valentia and Balearic Islands), collecting extreme weather events for period AD1000-1500. Historical context of Aragon Kingdom was no easy in this period, focused on recovering territory in front of Muslim Kingdoms (Reconsquista) up to 13th Century from North to South. After this, consolidation of modern institutions and urban network took 14-15th Centuries. Data sources has been all medieval chronicles of kingdom institution, early urban chronicles and scattered informations collected by previous historians on bibliographical sources. Firsts results show 512 informations, 15 of them previous to AD1000. Most of data are related to hydrometeorological anomalies: 150 flood events, 101 drought events and 82 storms or sea storms. Other 86 informations concern famines and shortages, events related to unidentified environmental anomalies. Thermic information obtained is divided on 46 events of cold weather or severe snowfall and 5 events related to extreme warm conditions. Finally, 27 data are related to strong wind events. Temporal patterns detected follow general characteristics already known for early Little Ice Age: rainfall anomalies (floods and droughts) increase clearly their frequency during the firsts decades of 14th Century. Other oscillation of strong rainfall variability appear during the second half of 15th Century. It results interesting the low frequency of extreme events during the centuries 11 to 13th.

Present-Day Genetic Structure of Atlantic Salmon (Salmo salar) in Icelandic Rivers and Ice-Cap Retreat Models

PubMed Central

Olafsson, Kristinn; Pampoulie, Christophe; Hjorleifsdottir, Sigridur; Gudjonsson, Sigurdur; Hreggvidsson, Gudmundur O.

2014-01-01

Due to an improved understanding of past climatological conditions, it has now become possible to study the potential concordance between former climatological models and present-day genetic structure. Genetic variability was assessed in 26 samples from different rivers of Atlantic salmon in Iceland (total of 2,352 individuals), using 15 microsatellite loci. F-statistics revealed significant differences between the majority of the populations that were sampled. Bayesian cluster analyses using both prior information and no prior information on sampling location revealed the presence of two distinguishable genetic pools - namely, the Northern (Group 1) and Southern (Group 2) regions of Iceland. Furthermore, the random permutation of different allele sizes among allelic states revealed a significant mutational component to the genetic differentiation at four microsatellite loci (SsaD144, Ssa171, SSsp2201 and SsaF3), and supported the proposition of a historical origin behind the observed variation. The estimated time of divergence, using two different ABC methods, suggested that the observed genetic pattern originated from between the Last Glacial Maximum to the Younger Dryas, which serves as additional evidence of the relative immaturity of Icelandic fish populations, on account of the re-colonisation of this young environment following the Last Glacial Maximum. Additional analyses suggested the presence of several genetic entities which were likely to originate from the original groups detected. PMID:24498283

A Review and Reflections on the Sun-Climate Connection

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Goldberg, Richard A.

1990-01-01

The field of sun-climate is beset with an extraordinary number of numerical correlations attempting to relate various periodicities of solar activity with changes in the Earth's weather and climate. Signatures representing climatological variability have been sought for cycles as short as the solar 28-day rotational period up to Milankovich periods of thousands of years, although a majority of correlations have concentrated on the 11-year sunspot and 22-year Hale double sunspot cycles. For the shorter term, parameters including temperature, pressure, winds storm tracks, rainfall, and water levels in rivers and lakes, etc. have been correlated with solar variability. For longer periods, it has been necessary to seek more indirect evidence in ice cores, tree rings, and geologic deep sea cores. Other atmospheric parameters relating to atmospheric electricity and the global electric circuit have also been correlated in similar fashion. Unfortunately, few, if any, of this wide spectrum of numerical correlations have been associated with any viable physical explanation, making most studies in the field an exercise in numerical statistics. More recently, a few suggestions for plausible coupling processes have begun to appear. These, coupled with new and stronger correlations involving selective binning of climatological data sets have injected new life and hope to this field. An overview is given of the historical past and current perspectives, to evaluate possible avenues for defining physical linking processes in the future.

CENTER FOR CLIMATIC RESEARCH, UNIVERSITY OF DELAWARE

EPA Science Inventory

The synoptic climatology group performs research into a variety of applied climatological issues that affect humans and other organisms around the world. Synoptic climatology is essentially an holistic approach to weather and climate. Synoptic climatologists attempt to characteri...

Modeling Salinity Exchanges Between the Equatorial Indian Ocean and the Bay of Bengal

DTIC Science & Technology

2016-06-01

Technology, has produced a model salinity climatology using daily atmosphere and surface flux climatology as forcing. Here, we present the results...surface, the model was forced by the daily climatology of atmo- spheric variables obtained from vari- ous sources. We used daily QuikSCAT and...2012). Precipitation data were obtained from the Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP). Using the bulk flux algorithm by Fairall et al

Contributions of changes in climatology and perturbation and the resulting nonlinearity to regional climate change.

PubMed

Adachi, Sachiho A; Nishizawa, Seiya; Yoshida, Ryuji; Yamaura, Tsuyoshi; Ando, Kazuto; Yashiro, Hisashi; Kajikawa, Yoshiyuki; Tomita, Hirofumi

2017-12-20

Future changes in large-scale climatology and perturbation may have different impacts on regional climate change. It is important to understand the impacts of climatology and perturbation in terms of both thermodynamic and dynamic changes. Although many studies have investigated the influence of climatology changes on regional climate, the significance of perturbation changes is still debated. The nonlinear effect of these two changes is also unknown. We propose a systematic procedure that extracts the influences of three factors: changes in climatology, changes in perturbation and the resulting nonlinear effect. We then demonstrate the usefulness of the procedure, applying it to future changes in precipitation. All three factors have the same degree of influence, especially for extreme rainfall events. Thus, regional climate assessments should consider not only the climatology change but also the perturbation change and their nonlinearity. This procedure can advance interpretations of future regional climates.

Student Services. A Handbook for the Profession. Second Edition.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Delworth, Ursula; And Others

Updated information is presented on various student services to provide student service professionals with ideas for successfully planning, coordinating, delivering, and evaluating student services programs. Six sections contain 24 chapters as follows: (1) professional roots and commitments--"Historical Foundations of Student Services (R. Fenske);…

The Status of Children 1977.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Snapper, Kurt J.; Ohms, JoAnne S.

This second biennial report on children presents information pertaining to children, discusses the implications and use of such information in planning for children, describes certain historical trends affecting children, and provides updates of statistics and significant expansions on many topics covered in the 1975 report. Part A examines basic…

Annual Energy Outlook Retrospective Review

EIA Publications

2015-01-01

The Annual Energy Outlook Retrospective Review provides a yearly comparison between realized energy outcomes and the Reference case projections included in previous Annual Energy Outlooks (AEO) beginning with 1982. This edition of the report adds the AEO 2012 projections and updates the historical data to incorporate the latest data revisions.

ACHP | Working with Section 106

Science.gov Websites

Federal Review webpage. State-by-State List of ACHP Signed Agreement Documents In hundreds of cases cases. Use the OFAP Agency Organizational Chart to identify the appropriate OFAP contact for assistance of federal historic preservation cases Updated February 13, 2018 Return to Top

Projecting the aspen resource in the Lake States.

Treesearch

William A. Leuschner

1972-01-01

Aspen growing stock inventories for nine Lake States forest survey units were updated to the common base year of 1968. Cut and inventory were projected to the year 2000 under three sets of assumptions. Potential shortages were found in northeastern Wisconsin and Michigan if historical trends continue.

Long-term hydrometeorological trends in the Midwest region based on a century long gridded hydrometeorological dataset and simulations from a macro-scale hydrology model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chiu, C. M.; Hamlet, A. F.

2014-12-01

Climate change is likely to impact the Great Lakes region and Midwest region via changes in Great Lakes water levels, agricultural impacts, river flooding, urban stormwater impacts, drought, water temperature, and impacts to terrestrial and aquatic ecosystems. Self-consistent and temporally homogeneous long-term data sets of precipitation and temperature over the entire Great Lakes region and Midwest regions are needed to provide inputs to hydrologic models, assess historical trends in hydroclimatic variables, and downscale global and regional-scale climate models. To support these needs a new hybrid gridded meteorological forcing dataset at 1/16 degree resolution based on data from co-op station records, the U. S Historical Climatology Network (HCN) , the Historical Canadian Climate Database (HCCD), and Precipitation Regression on Independent Slopes Method (PRISM) has been assembled over the Great Lakes and Midwest region from 1915-2012 at daily time step. These data were then used as inputs to the macro-scale Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) hydrology model, implemented over the Midwest and Great Lakes region at 1/16 degree resolution, to produce simulated hydrologic variables that are amenable to long-term trend analysis. Trends in precipitation and temperature from the new meteorological driving data sets, as well as simulated hydrometeorological variables such as snowpack, soil moisture, runoff, and evaporation over the 20th century are presented and discussed.

Development of an Extratropical Storm Wind, Wave, and Water Level Climatology for the Offshore Mid-Atlantic

DTIC Science & Technology

2015-08-01

ER D C/ CH L TR -1 5- 11 Development of an Extratropical Storm Wind, Wave, and Water Level Climatology for the Offshore Mid-Atlantic...Development of an Extratropical Storm Wind, Wave, and Water Level Climatology for the Offshore Mid-Atlantic Michael F. Forte Field Research Facility...standards for offshore wind farm design and to establish a 100-year (yr) extratropical wind speed, wave height, and water level climatology for the

Numerical Simulations and Observations of Surface Wave Fields Under an Extreme Tropical Cyclone

DTIC Science & Technology

2009-09-01

the initial condition is first generated using the Gener- alized Digital Environmental Model ( GDEM ) monthly ocean temperature and salinity climatology...soscale eddies in the Gulf of Mexico, but no real-time data assimilation is done in the Caribbean Sea. Instead, the GDEM monthly climatology data are used... GDEM monthly climatology to initialize the 3D tem- perature and current fields in our ocean model. Since the climatology data smooth out most of the

A multi-proxy reconstruction of millennial scale drought history for Northern England

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Macdonald, Dr; Chiverrell, Dr; Hind, Ms; Todd, Ms; Charman, Dr

2012-04-01

Drought is one of the major natural hazards experienced worldwide; they are complex with both causes and multifaceted impacts poorly understood. Few studies of drought events from a long-term perspective have been undertaken in the UK. This presents problems in determining important drought characteristics such as duration, frequency and severity. In order to undertake robust drought analyses reliable long-term data are required. Historical records have long been recognised as valuable data sources within historical climatology; however, the application of historical records in drought analysis is in its infancy, with few historical studies considering drought. This paper presents a reconstruction of drought events for NW England, from around AD 1000 to 2009, drawing upon instrumental, historical and sedimentary records. The drought record is extended to a millennial timescale by coupling the long, continuous instrumental meteorological records available for this area since the late 18th century, with descriptive historical accounts of droughts (since c.AD 1600) and a sedimentary peat sequences from an ombrotrophic mire (Butterburn Flow), where a water table variation history has been inferred from sub-fossil testate amoebae. The testate amoebae analyses were undertaken at 3mm sampling resolution, providing a sub-decadal (2-5 year) sample resolution. Calibration of the sedimentary sequences to the instrument series over the last c.250 years, coupled with chronological control provided by air fall pollutants (Pb and Zn) histories and radiocarbon dating, reveals a detailed millennial drought-dry phase history. The results identify a number of severe droughts - dry phases that have been of longer duration and of greater severity than the 1976 drought, the most memorable drought in living memory in the UK. The results of this work illustrate that current water resource management plans within the UK would struggle to maintain potable water supplies, indicating the need for greater resilience within current water management plans.

Updating and expanding the library of materials on NASA Spacelink electronic information system

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Blake, Jean A.

1992-01-01

NASA Spacelink, a proven resource medium, may be accessed over telephone lines or via the Internet by teachers or anyone with a computer or modem. It is a collection of historical and current information on NASA programs and activities. Included in this library is information on a variety of NASA programs, updates on Shuttle status, news releases, aeronautics, space exploration, classroom materials, NASA Educational Services, and computer programs and graphics. The material stored in Spacelink has found widespread use by teachers and others, and is being used to stimulate students, particularly in the area of aerospace science.

30 CFR 779.18 - Climatological information.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

2012-07-01

... 30 Mineral Resources 3 2012-07-01 2012-07-01 false Climatological information. 779.18 Section 779... PROGRAMS SURFACE MINING PERMIT APPLICATIONS-MINIMUM REQUIREMENTS FOR INFORMATION ON ENVIRONMENTAL RESOURCES § 779.18 Climatological information. (a) When requested by the regulatory authority, the application...

30 CFR 779.18 - Climatological information.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-07-01

... 30 Mineral Resources 3 2011-07-01 2011-07-01 false Climatological information. 779.18 Section 779... PROGRAMS SURFACE MINING PERMIT APPLICATIONS-MINIMUM REQUIREMENTS FOR INFORMATION ON ENVIRONMENTAL RESOURCES § 779.18 Climatological information. (a) When requested by the regulatory authority, the application...

30 CFR 783.18 - Climatological information.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

2012-07-01

... 30 Mineral Resources 3 2012-07-01 2012-07-01 false Climatological information. 783.18 Section 783... PROGRAMS UNDERGROUND MINING PERMIT APPLICATIONS-MINIMUM REQUIREMENTS FOR INFORMATION ON ENVIRONMENTAL RESOURCES § 783.18 Climatological information. (a) When requested by the regulatory authority, the...

30 CFR 783.18 - Climatological information.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-07-01

... 30 Mineral Resources 3 2011-07-01 2011-07-01 false Climatological information. 783.18 Section 783... PROGRAMS UNDERGROUND MINING PERMIT APPLICATIONS-MINIMUM REQUIREMENTS FOR INFORMATION ON ENVIRONMENTAL RESOURCES § 783.18 Climatological information. (a) When requested by the regulatory authority, the...

Improvements and Extensions for Joint Polar Satellite System Algorithms

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Grant, K. D.

2016-12-01

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) and National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) are jointly acquiring the next-generation civilian weather satellite system: the Joint Polar Satellite System (JPSS). JPSS replaced the afternoon orbit component and ground processing of the old POES system managed by NOAA. JPSS satellites carry sensors designed to collect meteorological, oceanographic, climatological, and solar-geophysical observations of the earth, atmosphere, and space. The ground processing system for JPSS is the Common Ground System (CGS), and provides command, control, and communications (C3), data processing and product delivery. CGS's data processing capability provides environmental data products (Sensor Data Records (SDRs) and Environmental Data Records (EDRs)) to the NOAA Satellite Operations Facility. The first satellite in the JPSS constellation, S-NPP, was launched in October 2011. The second satellite, JPSS-1, is scheduled for launch in January 2017. During a satellite's calibration and validation (Cal/Val) campaign, numerous algorithm updates occur. Changes identified during Cal/Val become available for implementation into the operational system for both S-NPP and JPSS-1. In addition, new capabilities, such as higher spectral and spatial resolution, will be exercised on JPSS-1. This paper will describe changes to current algorithms and products as a result of S-NPP Cal/Val and related initiatives for improved capabilities. Improvements include Cross Track Infrared Sounder high spectral processing, extended spectral and spatial ranges for Ozone Mapping and Profiler Suite ozone Total Column and Nadir Profiles, and updates to Vegetation Index, Snow Cover, Active Fires, Suspended Matter, and Ocean Color. Updates will include Sea Surface Temperature, Cloud Mask, Cloud Properties, and other improvements.

New and Updated Gridded Analysis Products provided by the Global Precipitation Climatology Centre (GPCC)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ziese, Markus; Schneider, Udo; Meyer-Christoffer, Anja; Finger, Peter; Schamm, Kirstin; Rustemeier, Elke; Becker, Andreas

2016-04-01

Since its start in 1989 the Global Precipitation Climatology Centre (GPCC) performs global analyses of monthly precipitation for the earth's land-surface on the basis of in-situ measurements. Meanwhile, the data set has continuously grown both in temporal coverage (original start of the evaluation period was 1986), as well as extent and quality of the underlying data base. The high spatio-temporal variability of precipitation requires an accordingly high density of measurement data. Data collected from national meteorological and hydrological services are the core of the GPCC data base, supported by global and regional data collections. Also the GPCC receives SYNOP and CLIMAT reports via WMO-GTS, which are mainly applied for near-real-time products. A high quality control effort is undertaken to remove miscoded and temporal or spatial dislocated data before entry into the GPCC archive, serving the basis for further interpolation and product generation. The GPCC archive holds records from almost 100 000 stations, among those three quarters with records long enough to serve the data basis of the GPCC suite of global precipitation products, comprising near-real-time as well as non-real-time products. Near-real-time products are the 'First Guess Monthly', 'First Guess Daily', 'Monitoring Product' and 'GPCC Drought Index'. These products are based on WMO-GTS data, e.g., SYNOP and CLIMAT reports and monthly totals calculated at CPC. Non-real-time products are the 'Full Data Monthly', 'Full Data Daily', 'Climatology', and 'HOMPRA-Europe'. Data from national meteorological and hydrological services and regional and global data collections are mainly used to calculate these products. Also WMO-GTS data are used if no other data are available. The majority of the products were released in an updated version, but 'Full Data Daily' and HOMPRA-Europe' are new products provided the first time. 'Full Data Daily' is a global analysis of daily precipitation totals from 1988 to 2013. 'HOMPRA-Europe' is an analysis of monthly precipitation totals from 5452 homogenized gauges in Europe with at least 90% data coverage for the period 1951 to 2005. The break detection and homogenizations were done by an adaptation of the PRODIGE scheme running in an automated mode. All GPCC products are available free of charge from the GPCC website at ftp://ftp-anon.dwd.de/pub/data/gpcc/html/download_gate.html and referenced by a digital object identifier (DOI) for easier citation, long lasting availability and a well-documented dissemination of the data files in the OGC compliant netCDF format An overview to the above mentioned GPCC products and data base will be given with a comparison of the products and example use cases. After all, GPCC products serve not only the agendas of GCOS, WCRP, GEWEX, UNEP, FAO, IPCC, UNESCO, but are basically providing reference observational data for the scientific community.

Monthly mean global climatology of temperature, wind, geopotential height, and pressure for 0 - 120 km

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Fleming, Eric L.; Chandra, Sushil; Schoeberl, Mark R.; Barnett, John J.

1988-01-01

A monthly mean climatology is presented of temperature, wind, and geopotential height with nearly pole-to-pole coverage (80 S to 80 N) for 0 to 210 km, which can be used as a function of altitude and pressure. The purpose is to provide a reference for various atmospheric research and analysis activities. Data sources and methods of computation are described; in general, hydrostatic and thermal wind balance are maintained at all levels and latitudes. As observed in a series of cross-sectional plots, this climatology accurately reproduces most of the characteristic features of the atmosphere such as equatorial wind and the general structure of the tropopause, stratopause, and mesopause. A series of zonal wind profiles is also represented comparing this climatological wind with monthly mean climatological direct wind measurements in the upper mesosphere and lower thermosphere. The temperature and zonal wind climatology at stratospheric levels is compared with corresponding data from the National Meteorological Center, and general agreement is observed between the two data sets. Tables of the climatological values as a function of latitude and height for each month are contained in Appendix B, and are also available in floppy disk.

Toward seamless high-resolution flash flood forecasting over Europe based on radar nowcasting and NWP: An evaluation with case studies

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Park, Shinju; Berenguer, Marc; Sempere-Torres, Daniel; Baugh, Calum; Smith, Paul

2017-04-01

Flash floods induced by heavy rain are one of the hazardous natural events that significantly affect human lives. Because flash floods are characterized by their rapid onset, forecasting flash flood to lead an effective response requires accurate rainfall predictions with high spatial and temporal resolution and adequate representation of the hydrologic and hydraulic processes within a catchment that determine rainfall-runoff accumulations. We present extreme flash flood cases which occurred throughout Europe in 2015-2016 that were identified and forecasted by two real-time approaches: 1) the European Rainfall-Induced Hazard Assessment System (ERICHA) and 2) the European Runoff Index based on Climatology (ERIC). ERICHA is based on the nowcasts of accumulated precipitation generated from the pan-European radar composites produced by the EUMETNET project OPERA. It has the advantage of high-resolution precipitation inputs and rapidly updated forecasts (every 15 minutes), but limited forecast lead time (up to 8 hours). ERIC, on the other hand, provides 5-day forecasts based on the COSMO-LEPS NWP simulations updated 2 times a day but is only produced at a 7 km resolution. We compare the products from both systems and focus on showing the advantages, limitations and complementarities of ERICHA and ERIC for seamless high-resolution flash flood forecasting.

Life on Guam: Schoolyard Surveys. 1977 Edition.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Flores, Magdalena T.

As part of an updated series of activity oriented educational materials dealing with aspects of the Guam environment, this publication focuses on the common plants and animals found in schoolyards on Guam. Like a field guide, this publication contains descriptions, ecological information, and some historical notes about the common trees, shrubs,…

Six Workforce Development Initiatives That Are Laying the Pathway to Success

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Fox, Heather L.

2015-01-01

Workforce development interventions have historically been heavily driven by federal funding, much of which was designated towards short-term training programs (less than six months) and rarely involved interaction or collaboration among colleges. The resulting efforts by the colleges to improve, update, or expand their workforce development…

Track/train dynamics test report modal survey

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Vigil, R. A.

1975-01-01

The modal survey vibration test conducted on an 80 ton open hopper freight car is described. The test data, the post-test update of the modal survey test requirements and procedure, and an index to the test data are presented. Photographs of actual measurement locations and the test historical log are included.

NMC OFFICE NOTE 124

Science.gov Websites

surface reports in the NMC observational files. This revision represents the final update to NMC/NCEP Office Note Number 124. This format for representing meteorological surface observational data at NMC observational data format at NCEP. An accurate version of this Office Note is still necessary for historical

Improving Programs and Outcomes: Implementation Frameworks and Organization Change

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Bertram, Rosalyn M.; Blase, Karen A.; Fixsen, Dean L.

2015-01-01

This article presents recent refinements to implementation constructs and frameworks. It updates and clarifies the frequently cited study conducted by the National Implementation Research Network that introduced these frameworks for application in diverse endeavors. As such, it may serve as a historical marker in the rapidly developing science and…

An update on acquired nystagmus.

PubMed

Rucker, Janet C

2008-01-01

Proper evaluation and treatment of acquired nystagmus requires accurate characterization of nystagmus type and visual effects. This review addresses important historical and examination features of nystagmus and current concepts of pathogenesis and treatment of gaze-evoked nystagmus, nystagmus due to vision loss, acquired pendular nystagmus, peripheral and central vestibular nystagmus, and periodic alternating nystagmus.

Down Syndrome, Birth to Adulthood: Giving Families an EDGE.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Rynders, John E.; Horrobin, J. Margaret

This updated book provides a collection of longitudinal perspectives on experiences of individuals with Down Syndrome, from birth to adulthood. The book is an outgrowth of a federally funded early intervention study called Project EDGE (Expanding Developmental Growth through Education). Contents cover the following topics: historical review of…

United States housing, 2013

Treesearch

Delton Alderman

2016-01-01

This publication provides an overview of the 2013 U.S. housing market, including updated information and data, and is part of an ongoing series of quarterly and annual housing reports that provide historical information on housing permits, starts, houses under construction, and completions. In addition, short briefs present information regarding house sales,...

Monitoring the Global Soil Moisture Climatology Using GLDAS/LIS

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Meng, J.; Mitchell, K.; Wei, H.; Gottschalck, J.

2006-05-01

Soil moisture plays a crucial role in the terrestrial water cycle through governing the process of partitioning precipitation among infiltration, runoff and evaporation. Accurate assessment of soil moisture and other land states, namely, soil temperature, snowpack, and vegetation, is critical in numerical environmental prediction systems because of their regulation of surface water and energy fluxes between the surface and atmosphere over a variety of spatial and temporal scales. The Global Land Data Assimilation System (GLDAS) is developed, jointly by NASA Goddard Space Flight Center (GSFC) and NOAA National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP), to perform high-quality global land surface simulation using state-of-art land surface models and further minimizing the errors of simulation by constraining the models with observation- based precipitation, and satellite land data assimilation techniques. The GLDAS-based Land Information System (LIS) infrastructure has been installed on the NCEP supercomputer that serves the operational weather and climate prediction systems. In this experiment, the Noah land surface model is offline executed within the GLDAS/LIS infrastructure, driven by the NCEP Global Reanalysis-2 (GR2) and the CPC Merged Analysis of Precipitation (CMAP). We use the same Noah code that is coupled to the operational NCEP Global Forecast System (GFS) for weather prediction and test bed versions of the NCEP Climate Forecast System (CFS) for seasonal prediction. For assessment, it is crucial that this uncoupled GLDAS/Noah uses exactly the same Noah code (and soil and vegetation parameters therein), and executes with the same horizontal grid, landmask, terrain field, soil and vegetation types, seasonal cycle of green vegetation fraction and surface albedo as in the coupled GFS/Noah and CFS/Noah. This execution is for the 25-year period of 1980-2005, starting with a pre-execution 10-year spin-up. This 25-year GLDAS/Noah global land climatology will be used for both climate variability assessment and as a source of land initial conditions for ensemble CFS/Noah seasonal hindcast experiments. Finally, this GLDAS/Noah climatology will serve as the foundation for a global drought/flood monitoring system that includes near realtime daily updates of the global land states.

Real-Time IRI driven by GIRO data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Galkin, Ivan; Huang, Xueqin; Reinisch, Bodo; Bilitza, Dieter; Vesnin, Artem

Real-time extensions of the empirical International Reference Ionosphere (IRI) model are based on assimilative techniques that preserve the IRI formalism which is optimized for the description of climatological ionospheric features. The Global Ionosphere Radio Observatory (GIRO) team has developed critical parts of an IRI Real Time Assimilative Model (IRTAM) for the global ionospheric plasma distribution using measured data available in real time from ~50 ionosondes of the GIRO network, The current assimilation results present global assimilative maps of foF2 and hmF2 that reproduce available data at the sensor sites and smoothly return to the climatological specifications when and where the data are missing, and are free from artificial sharp gradients and short-lived artifacts when viewed in time progression. Animated real-time maps of foF2 and hmF2 are published with a few minutes latency at http://giro.uml.edu/IRTAM/. Our real-time IRI modeling uses morphing, a technique that transforms the climatological ionospheric specifications to match the observations by iteratively computing corrections to the original coefficients of the diurnal/spatial expansions, used in IRI to map the key ionospheric characteristics, while keeping the IRI expansion basis formalism intact. Computation of the updated coefficient set for a given point in time includes analysis of the latest 24-hour history of observations, which allows the morphing technique to sense evolving ionospheric dynamics even with a sparse sensor network. A Non-linear Error Compensation Technique for Associative Restoration (NECTAR), one of the features in our morphing approach, has been in operation at the Lowell GIRO Data Center since 2013. The cornerstone of NECTAR is a recurrent neural network optimizer that is responsible for smoothing the transitions between the grid cells where observations are available. NECTAR has proved suitable for real-time operations that require the assimilation code to be considerate of data uncertainties (noise) and immune to data errors. Future IRTAM work is directed toward accepting a greater diversity of near-real-time sensor data, and the paper discusses potential new data sources and challenges associated with their assimilation.

A Gridded Climatology of Clouds over Land (1971-1996) and Ocean (1954-2008) from Surface Observations Worldwide (NDP-026E)*

DOE Data Explorer

Hahn, C. J. [University of Arizona; Warren, S. G. [University of Washington

2007-01-01

Surface synoptic weather reports from ships and land stations worldwide were processed to produce a global cloud climatology which includes: total cloud cover, the amount and frequency of occurrence of nine cloud types within three levels of the troposphere, the frequency of occurrence of clear sky and of precipitation, the base heights of low clouds, and the non-overlapped amounts of middle and high clouds. Synoptic weather reports are made every three hours; the cloud information in a report is obtained visually by human observers. The reports used here cover the period 1971-96 for land and 1954-2008 for ocean. This digital archive provides multi-year monthly, seasonal, and annual averages in 5x5-degree grid boxes (or 10x10-degree boxes for some quantities over the ocean). Daytime and nighttime averages, as well as the diurnal average (average of day and night), are given. Nighttime averages were computed using only those reports that met an "illuminance criterion" (i.e., made under adequate moonlight or twilight), thus minimizing the "night-detection bias" and making possible the determination of diurnal cycles and nighttime trends for cloud types. The phase and amplitude of the first harmonic of both the diurnal cycle and the annual cycle are given for the various cloud types. Cloud averages for individual years are also given for the ocean for each of 4 seasons, and for each of the 12 months (daytime-only averages for the months). [Individual years for land are not gridded, but are given for individual stations in a companion data set, CDIAC's NDP-026D).] This analysis used 185 million reports from 5388 weather stations on continents and islands, and 50 million reports from ships; these reports passed a series of quality-control checks. This analysis updates (and in most ways supercedes) the previous cloud climatology constructed by the authors in the 1980s. Many of the long-term averages described here are mapped on the University of Washington, Department of Atmospheric Sciences Web site. The Online Cloud Atlas containing NDP-026E data is available via the University of Washington.

Radiative and temperature effects of aerosol simulated by the COSMO-Ru model for different atmospheric conditions and their testing against ground-based measurements and accurate RT simulations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chubarova, Nataly; Poliukhov, Alexei; Shatunova, Marina; Rivin, Gdali; Becker, Ralf; Muskatel, Harel; Blahak, Ulrich; Kinne, Stefan; Tarasova, Tatiana

2017-04-01

We use the operational Russian COSMO-Ru weather forecast model (Ritter and and Geleyn, 1991) with different aerosol input data for the evaluation of radiative and temperature effects of aerosol in different atmospheric conditions. Various aerosol datasets were utilized including Tegen climatology (Tegen et al., 1997), updated Macv2 climatology (Kinne et al., 2013), Tanre climatology (Tanre et al., 1984) as well as the MACC data (Morcrette et al., 2009). For clear sky conditions we compare the radiative effects from the COSMO-Ru model over Moscow (55.7N, 37.5E) and Lindenberg/Falkenberg sites (52.2N, 14.1E) with the results obtained using long-term aerosol measurements. Additional tests of the COSMO RT code were performed against (FC05)-SW model (Tarasova T.A. and Fomin B.A., 2007). The overestimation of about 5-8% of COSMO RT code was obtained. The study of aerosol effect on temperature at 2 meters has revealed the sensitivity of about 0.7-1.1 degree C per 100 W/m2 change in shortwave net radiation due to aerosol variations. We also discuss the radiative impact of urban aerosol properties according to the long-term AERONET measurements in Moscow and Moscow suburb as well as long-term aerosol trends over Moscow from the measurements and Macv2 dataset. References: Kinne, S., O'Donnel D., Stier P., et al., J. Adv. Model. Earth Syst., 5, 704-740, 2013. Morcrette J.-J.,O. Boucher, L. Jones, eet al, J.GEOPHYS. RES.,VOL. 114, D06206, doi:10.1029/2008JD011235, 2009. Ritter, B. and Geleyn, J., Monthly Weather Review, 120, 303-325, 1992. Tanre, D., Geleyn, J., and Slingo, J., A. Deepak Publ., Hampton, Virginia, 133-177, 1984. Tarasova, T., and Fomin, B., Journal of Atmospheric and Oceanic Technology, 24, 1157-1162, 2007. Tegen, I., Hollrig, P., Chin, M., et al., Journal of Geophysical Research- Atmospheres, 102, 23895-23915, 1997.

ENSO amplitude changes due to greenhouse warming in CMIP5: Role of mean tropical precipitation in the 20th centur

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ham, Yoo-Geun; Kug, Jong-Seong

2017-04-01

The relationship between the present-climate climatology and those of ENSO amplitude change under global warming in the CMIP5 models is examined. The models with increased ENSO amplitude under greenhouse warming tend to simulate a 20th century stronger climatological ITCZ and SPCZ over the central-eastern Pacific that are located further away from the equator during boreal spring. The budget analysis using moisture equation indicates that those climatological differences lead to stronger positive climatological precipitation change over the off-equatorial central-eastern Pacific under greenhouse warming. The stronger positive climatological precipitation change enhances the air-sea coupling strength over the central-eastern Pacific, which results in the increase of the ENSO amplitude.

Model-Derived Global Aerosol Climatology for MISR Analysis ("Clim-Likely" Data Set)

Atmospheric Science Data Center

2018-04-19

Model-Derived Global Aerosol Climatology for MISR Analysis Multi-angle Imaging ... (MISR) monthly, global 1° x 1° "Clim-Likely" aerosol climatology, derived from 'typical-year' aerosol transport model results are available for individual 1° x 1° boxes or ...

A Historical Overview of the Classification, Evolution, and Dispersion of Leishmania Parasites and Sandflies.

PubMed

Akhoundi, Mohammad; Kuhls, Katrin; Cannet, Arnaud; Votýpka, Jan; Marty, Pierre; Delaunay, Pascal; Sereno, Denis

2016-03-01

The aim of this study is to describe the major evolutionary historical events among Leishmania, sandflies, and the associated animal reservoirs in detail, in accordance with the geographical evolution of the Earth, which has not been previously discussed on a large scale. Leishmania and sandfly classification has always been a controversial matter, and the increasing number of species currently described further complicates this issue. Despite several hypotheses on the origin, evolution, and distribution of Leishmania and sandflies in the Old and New World, no consistent agreement exists regarding dissemination of the actors that play roles in leishmaniasis. For this purpose, we present here three centuries of research on sandflies and Leishmania descriptions, as well as a complete description of Leishmania and sandfly fossils and the emergence date of each Leishmania and sandfly group during different geographical periods, from 550 million years ago until now. We discuss critically the different approaches that were used for Leishmana and sandfly classification and their synonymies, proposing an updated classification for each species of Leishmania and sandfly. We update information on the current distribution and dispersion of different species of Leishmania (53), sandflies (more than 800 at genus or subgenus level), and animal reservoirs in each of the following geographical ecozones: Palearctic, Nearctic, Neotropic, Afrotropical, Oriental, Malagasy, and Australian. We propose an updated list of the potential and proven sandfly vectors for each Leishmania species in the Old and New World. Finally, we address a classical question about digenetic Leishmania evolution: which was the first host, a vertebrate or an invertebrate? We propose an updated view of events that have played important roles in the geographical dispersion of sandflies, in relation to both the Leishmania species they transmit and the animal reservoirs of the parasites.

Plague: A Disease Which Changed the Path of Human Civilization.

PubMed

Bramanti, Barbara; Stenseth, Nils Chr; Walløe, Lars; Lei, Xu

2016-01-01

Plague caused by Yersinia pestis is a zoonotic infection, i.e., it is maintained in wildlife by animal reservoirs and on occasion spills over into human populations, causing outbreaks of different entities. Large epidemics of plague, which have had significant demographic, social, and economic consequences, have been recorded in Western European historical documents since the sixth century. Plague has remained in Europe for over 1400 years, intermittently disappearing, yet it is not clear if there were reservoirs for Y. pestis in Western Europe or if the pathogen was rather reimported on different occasions from Asian reservoirs by human agency. The latter hypothesis thus far seems to be the most plausible one, as it is sustained by both ecological and climatological evidence, helping to interpret the phylogeny of this bacterium.

Changing monsoon and midlatitude circulation interactions over the Western Himalayas and possible links to occurrences of extreme precipitation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Priya, P.; Krishnan, R.; Mujumdar, Milind; Houze, Robert A.

2017-10-01

Historical rainfall records reveal that the frequency and intensity of extreme precipitation events, during the summer monsoon (June-September) season, have significantly risen over the Western Himalayas (WH) and adjoining upper Indus basin since 1950s. Using multiple datasets, the present study investigates the possible coincidences between an increasing trend of precipitation extremes over WH and changes in background flow climatology. The present findings suggest that the combined effects of a weakened southwest monsoon circulation, increased activity of transient upper-air westerly troughs over the WH region, enhanced moisture supply by southerly winds from the Arabian Sea into the Indus basin have likely provided favorable conditions for an increased frequency of certain types of extreme precipitation events over the WH region in recent decades.

LANDFIRE 2010—Updates to the national dataset to support improved fire and natural resource management

USGS Publications Warehouse

Nelson, Kurtis J.; Long, Donald G.; Connot, Joel A.

2016-02-29

The Landscape Fire and Resource Management Planning Tools (LANDFIRE) 2010 data release provides updated and enhanced vegetation, fuel, and fire regime layers consistently across the United States. The data represent landscape conditions from approximately 2010 and are the latest release in a series of planned updates to maintain currency of LANDFIRE data products. Enhancements to the data products included refinement of urban areas by incorporating the National Land Cover Database 2006 land cover product, refinement of agricultural lands by integrating the National Agriculture Statistics Service 2011 cropland data layer, and improved wetlands delineations using the National Land Cover Database 2006 land cover and the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service National Wetlands Inventory data. Disturbance layers were generated for years 2008 through 2010 using remotely sensed imagery, polygons representing disturbance events submitted by local organizations, and fire mapping program data such as the Monitoring Trends in Burn Severity perimeters produced by the U.S. Geological Survey and the U.S. Forest Service. Existing vegetation data were updated to account for transitions in disturbed areas and to account for vegetation growth and succession in undisturbed areas. Surface and canopy fuel data were computed from the updated vegetation type, cover, and height and occasionally from potential vegetation. Historical fire frequency and succession classes were also updated. Revised topographic layers were created based on updated elevation data from the National Elevation Dataset. The LANDFIRE program also released a new Web site offering updated content, enhanced usability, and more efficient navigation.

Historical Perspective on Mitochondrial Medicine

PubMed Central

DiMauro, Salvatore; Garone, Caterina

2010-01-01

In this review, we trace the origins and follow the development of mitochondrial medicine from the pre-molecular era (1962-1988) based on clinical clues, muscle morphology, and biochemistry into the molecular era that started in 1988 and is still advancing at a brisk pace. We have tried to stress conceptual advances, such as endosymbiosis, uniparental inheritance, intergenomic signaling and its defects, and mitochondrial dynamics. We hope that this historical review also provides an update on mitochondrial medicine, although we fully realize that the speed of progress in this area makes any such endeavor akin to writing on water. PMID:20818724

Towards a global historical emission inventory for selected PCB congeners--a mass balance approach 3. An update.

PubMed

Breivik, Knut; Sweetman, Andy; Pacyna, Jozef M; Jones, Kevin C

2007-05-15

Previously published estimates of the global production, consumption and atmospheric emissions of 22 individual PCB congeners [Breivik K, Sweetman A, Pacyna JM, Jones KC. Towards a global historical emission inventory for selected PCB congeners - a mass balance approach. 1. Global production and consumption. Sci Total Environ 2002a; 290: 181-198.; Breivik K, Sweetman A, Pacyna JM, Jones KC. Towards a global historical emission inventory for selected PCB congeners--a mass balance approach. 2. Emissions. Sci Total Environ 2002b; 290: 181-198.] have provided useful information for later studies attempting to interpret contaminant levels in remote areas as well as in the global environment. As a result of the need for more contemporary emission data (following the year 2000), an update of this emission database is presented. This exercise takes into account new information on PCB production in Poland, as well as new data on the chemical composition of various technical mixtures for which less information had been available. The methodology to estimate temporal trends of PCB emissions associated with various types of PCB usage is improved. Projected emissions up to year 2100 are presented to facilitate predictions of future environmental exposure. The national emission data for each of the 114 countries considered is spatially resolved on a 1 degrees x1 degrees grid for each congener and year, using population density as a surrogate.

Role of 20th tropical precipitation on ENSO amplitude changes due to greenhouse warming in CMIP5

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ham, Yoo-Geun; Kug, Jong-Seong

2016-04-01

This study examines the relationship between the intermodel diversities of the present-climate climatology and those of ENSO amplitude change under global warming in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5) models. The models with increased ENSO amplitude under greenhouse warming (i.e., 'ENSO-amplified models') tend to simulate a 20th century stronger climatological ITCZ and SPCZ over the central-eastern Pacific that are located further away from the equator during boreal spring. Moisture budget analysis indicates that those climatological differences lead to stronger positive climatological precipitation change over the off-equatorial central-eastern Pacific under greenhouse warming. The stronger positive climatological precipitation change enhances the air-sea coupling strength over the central-eastern Pacific, which leads to increase the ENSO amplitude.

Daily Temperature and Precipitation Data for 223 Former-USSR Stations (NDP-040)

DOE Data Explorer

Razuvaev, V. N. [Russian Research Institute of Hydrometeorological Information-World Data Centre; Apasova, E. B. [Russian Research Institute of Hydrometeorological Information-World Data Centre; Martuganov, R. A. [Russian Research Institute of Hydrometeorological Information-World Data Centre

1990-01-01

The stations in this dataset are considered by RIHMI to comprise one of the best networks suitable for temperature and precipitation monitoring over the the former-USSR. Factors involved in choosing these 223 stations included length or record, amount of missing data, and achieving reasonably good geographic coverage. There are indeed many more stations with daily data over this part of the world, and hundreds more station records are available through NOAA's Global Historical Climatology Network - Daily (GHCND) database. The 223 stations comprising this database are included in GHCND, but different data processing, updating, and quality assurance methods/checks mean that the agreement between records will vary depending on the station. The relative quality and accuracy of the common station records in the two databases also cannot be easily assessed. As of this writing, most of the common stations contained in the GHCND have more recent records, but not necessarily records starting as early as the records available here. This database contains four variables: daily mean, minimum, and maximum temperature, and daily total precipitation (liquid equivalent). Temperature were taken three times a day from 1881-1935, four times a day from 1936-65, and eight times a day since 1966. Daily mean temperature is defined as the average of all observations for each calendar day. Daily maximum/minimum temperatures are derived from maximum/minimum thermometer measurements. See the measurement description file for further details. Daily precipitation totals are also available (to the nearest tenth of a millimeter) for each station. Throughout the record, daily precipitation is defined as the total amount of precipitation recorded during a 24-h period, snowfall being converted to a liquid total by melting the snow in the gauge. From 1936 on, rain gauges were checked several times each day; the cumulative total of all observations during a calendar day was presumably used as the daily total. Again, see the measurement description file for further details.

Monthly mean forecast experiments with the GISS model

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Spar, J.; Atlas, R. M.; Kuo, E.

1976-01-01

The GISS general circulation model was used to compute global monthly mean forecasts for January 1973, 1974, and 1975 from initial conditions on the first day of each month and constant sea surface temperatures. Forecasts were evaluated in terms of global and hemispheric energetics, zonally averaged meridional and vertical profiles, forecast error statistics, and monthly mean synoptic fields. Although it generated a realistic mean meridional structure, the model did not adequately reproduce the observed interannual variations in the large scale monthly mean energetics and zonally averaged circulation. The monthly mean sea level pressure field was not predicted satisfactorily, but annual changes in the Icelandic low were simulated. The impact of temporal sea surface temperature variations on the forecasts was investigated by comparing two parallel forecasts for January 1974, one using climatological ocean temperatures and the other observed daily ocean temperatures. The use of daily updated sea surface temperatures produced no discernible beneficial effect.

Benefit of Modeling the Observation Error in a Data Assimilation Framework Using Vegetation Information Obtained From Passive Based Microwave Data

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Bolten, John D.; Mladenova, Iliana E.; Crow, Wade; De Jeu, Richard

2016-01-01

A primary operational goal of the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) is to improve foreign market access for U.S. agricultural products. A large fraction of this crop condition assessment is based on satellite imagery and ground data analysis. The baseline soil moisture estimates that are currently used for this analysis are based on output from the modified Palmer two-layer soil moisture model, updated to assimilate near-real time observations derived from the Soil Moisture Ocean Salinity (SMOS) satellite. The current data assimilation system is based on a 1-D Ensemble Kalman Filter approach, where the observation error is modeled as a function of vegetation density. This allows for offsetting errors in the soil moisture retrievals. The observation error is currently adjusted using Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) climatology. In this paper we explore the possibility of utilizing microwave-based vegetation optical depth instead.

Development of a Geomagnetic Storm Correction to the International Reference Ionosphere E-Region Electron Densities Using TIMED/SABER Observations

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Mertens, C. J.; Xu, X.; Fernandez, J. R.; Bilitza, D.; Russell, J. M., III; Mlynczak, M. G.

2009-01-01

Auroral infrared emission observed from the TIMED/SABER broadband 4.3 micron channel is used to develop an empirical geomagnetic storm correction to the International Reference Ionosphere (IRI) E-region electron densities. The observation-based proxy used to develop the storm model is SABER-derived NO+(v) 4.3 micron volume emission rates (VER). A correction factor is defined as the ratio of storm-time NO+(v) 4.3 micron VER to a quiet-time climatological averaged NO+(v) 4.3 micron VER, which is linearly fit to available geomagnetic activity indices. The initial version of the E-region storm model, called STORM-E, is most applicable within the auroral oval region. The STORM-E predictions of E-region electron densities are compared to incoherent scatter radar electron density measurements during the Halloween 2003 storm events. Future STORM-E updates will extend the model outside the auroral oval.

Aerosol Retrievals from ARM SGP MFRSR Data

DOE Data Explorer

Alexandrov, Mikhail

2008-01-15

The Multi-Filter Rotating Shadowband Radiometer (MFRSR) makes precise simultaneous measurements of the solar direct normal and diffuse horizontal irradiances at six wavelengths (nominally 415, 500, 615, 673, 870, and 940 nm) at short intervals (20 sec for ARM instruments) throughout the day. Time series of spectral optical depth are derived from these measurements. Besides water vapor at 940 nm, the other gaseous absorbers within the MFRSR channels are NO2 (at 415, 500, and 615 nm) and ozone (at 500, 615, and 670 nm). Aerosols and Rayleigh scattering contribute atmospheric extinction in all MFRSR channels. Our recently updated MFRSR data analysis algorithm allows us to partition the spectral aerosol optical depth into fine and coarse modes and to retrieve the fine mode effective radius. In this approach we rely on climatological amounts of NO2 from SCIAMACHY satellite retrievals and use daily ozone columns from TOMS.

Historical Review of Atomic Frequency Standards Used in Space Systems - 10 Year Update

DTIC Science & Technology

2007-01-01

section on 2006 predictions. The authors would like to thank Peter Cash, Bernardo Jaduszliwer, Bob Kern, Robert Lutwak , John Prestage, Bill Riley, and...258- 262. [17] R. Lutwak , D. Emmons, R. M. Garvey, and P. Vlitas, 2003, “Optically pumped cesium-beam frequency standard for GPS-III,” in

Adaptation and Assimilation: US Business Responses to Linguistic Diversity in the Workplace.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Dicker, Susan J.

1998-01-01

Provides a historical overview of attitudes toward immigrants and their languages in the United States, gives an update of the Official English movement, and analyzes recent articles in business-related journals. Discussion centers on how businesses have adapted to a multilingual workforce and on the connection between the Official English…

A Guide to Ohio Outdoor Education Areas. Second Edition.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Melvin, Ruth W.

To this new and updated second edition, over 160 new sites and their description have been added. The first major section, outdoor education areas, includes state Parks, forests, and wildlife areas; historic sites and memorials; Wayne National Forest; metropolitan county and city parks; agency and private camps; conservation agency properties;…

Updated generalized biomass equations for North American tree species

Treesearch

David C. Chojnacky; Linda S. Heath; Jennifer C. Jenkins

2014-01-01

Historically, tree biomass at large scales has been estimated by applying dimensional analysis techniques and field measurements such as diameter at breast height (dbh) in allometric regression equations. Equations often have been developed using differing methods and applied only to certain species or isolated areas. We previously had compiled and combined (in meta-...

Education of Civic Consciousness in George Kershenshteyner's Creativity

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Belentsov, Sergei I.; Fahrutdinova, Anastasia V.; Okulich-Kazarin, Valery

2017-01-01

Relevance of the publication is caused by need of judgment of realities and prospects of development of the Russian society. The education system is the main factor of updating of tenor of life of the state and further development of democratic institutes. Therefore questions of a humanization of Russian education become defining in historical and…

The Doctorate Production and Baccalaureate Origins of African Americans in the Sciences and Engineering.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Solorzano, Daniel G.

1995-01-01

Reviews the status of black doctorate production from U.S. universities during the 1980s, updating baseline information and examining the baccalaureate origins of African American doctorates. Black students continue to be underrepresented, especially in science and engineering, and gender differences persist. The role of historically black…

Progress and Directions in Professional Credentialing for Health Education in the United States

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Cottrell, Randall R.; Auld, M. Elaine; Birch, David A.; Taub, Alyson; King, Laura Rasar; Allegrante, John P.

2012-01-01

This article provides an update on initiatives in individual certification and accreditation of academic programs in public/community health education and school health education in the United States. Although we provide some historical context, the focus primarily addresses credentialing efforts that have evolved since the Galway Consensus…

Ecology of bonytail and razorback sucker and the role of off-channel habitats in their recovery

USGS Publications Warehouse

Mueller, Gordon A.

2006-01-01

This report presents new findings, updates existing information, and describes what may well represent the only practical approach to these species’ conservation and recovery. Chapter 1 provides an overview of the Colorado River system from its origin to the Gulf of California and includes a description of propagation and stocking programs which have not been described elsewhere. The report also updates what is known or suspected on the life history and ecology of these two endangered fishes. Chapter 2 describes the successful recruitment of both species at an oxbow pond on the Cibola National Wildlife Refuge in Arizona, discusses factors that contribute to completion of the life cycle of both fishes, and provides recommendations for future management of the impoundment. Chapter 3 provides historical evidence that oxbow habitats were formed historically in years of high runoff and the importance of these habitats for survival and evolution of native fishes. It also summarizes key features of habitats that can serve as sanctuaries that enhance early survival of the endangered fishes and allow the fish to complete their entire life cycles.

Assessment of South Asian Summer Monsoon Simulation in CMIP5-Coupled Climate Models During the Historical Period (1850-2005)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Prasanna, Venkatraman

2016-04-01

This paper evaluates the performance of 29 state-of-art CMIP5-coupled atmosphere-ocean general circulation models (AOGCM) in their representation of regional characteristics of monsoon simulation over South Asia. The AOGCMs, despite their relatively coarse resolution, have shown some reasonable skill in simulating the mean monsoon and precipitation variability over the South Asian monsoon region. However, considerable biases do exist with reference to the observed precipitation and also inter-model differences. The monsoon rainfall and surface flux bias with respect to the observations from the historical run for the period nominally from 1850 to 2005 are discussed in detail. Our results show that the coupled model simulations over South Asia exhibit large uncertainties from one model to the other. The analysis clearly brings out the presence of large systematic biases in coupled simulation of boreal summer precipitation, evaporation, and sea surface temperature (SST) in the Indian Ocean, often exceeding 50 % of the climatological values. Many of the biases are common to many models. Overall, the coupled models need further improvement in realistically portraying boreal summer monsoon over the South Asian monsoon region.

Global Measurements of Optically Thin Ice Clouds Using CALIOP

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Ryan, R.; Avery, M.; Tackett, J.

2017-01-01

Optically thin ice clouds have been shown to have a net warming effect on the globe but, because passive instruments are not sensitive to optically thin clouds, the occurrence frequency of this class of clouds is greatly underestimated in historical passive sensor cloud climatology. One major strength of CALIOP (Cloud-Aerosol Lidar with Orthogonal Polarization), onboard the CALIPSO (Cloud-Aerosol Lidar and Infrared Pathfinder Satellite Observations) spacecraft, is its ability to detect these thin clouds, thus filling an important missing piece in the historical data record. This poster examines the full mission of CALIPSO Level 2 data, focusing on those CALIOP retrievals identified as thin ice clouds according to the definition shown to the right. Using this definition, thin ice clouds are identified and counted globally and vertically for each season. By examining the spatial and seasonal distributions of these thin clouds we hope to gain a better understanding these thin ice clouds and how their global distribution has changed over the mission. This poster showcases when and where CALIOP detects thin ice clouds and examines a case study of the eastern pacific and the effects seen from the El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO).

Analysis of a long drought in Piedmont, Italy - Autumn 2001

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gandini, D.; Marchisio, C.; Paesano, G.; Pelosini, P.

2003-04-01

A long period of drought and cold temperatures has characterised the seasons of Autumn 2001 and Winter 2001-2002 on the regions of the southern Alpine chain. The analysis of precipitation's data, collected by the Regional Monitoring network of Piedmont Region (on the south-west side of Alps), shows that they are far below the mean values and very close to the historical minimum of the last century. The six months accumulated precipitation in Turin (Piedmont chief town), from June to December 2001, has reached the historical minimum value of 206 mm in comparison with a mean value of 540 mm. The drought has been remarkable also in the mountain areas with the lack of snowfalls and critical consequences for water reservoirs. At the same time, the number of days with daily averaged temperature below or close to 0°C in December 2001 has been the greatest value of the last 50 years, much higher than the 50 years average, for the whole Piedmont region. This study contains a detailed analysis of observed data to characterise the drought episode, associated with a climatological analysis of meteorological parameters in order to detect the typical large scale pattern of the drought periods and their persistency's features.

A new meteorological record for Cádiz (Spain) 1806-1852: Implications for climatic reconstructions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gallego, David; Garcia-Herrera, Ricardo; Calvo, Natalia; Ribera, Pedro

2007-06-01

A new documentary source of data for wind, atmospheric pressure and air temperature for the city of Cádiz (southern Spain) has been abstracted, analyzed and compared with present-day data. Wind records cover the period 1806-1852 with three observations per day. Instrumental pressure and temperature cover the period 1825-1852. While the historical pressure series shows average values very close to that found for the period 1971-2000, temperature shows a large asymmetric seasonal warming, with increments in the order of 2°C for the winter months and almost no change for summer. Wind measurements have been transformed into their numerical equivalents and then compared with present-day values. The analysis shows that the numerical estimation of ancient wind forces observed at Cádiz, while providing a robust climatic signal, has a strong bias to larger values than their instrumental equivalents. Despite the uncertainties involved in the interpretation of early wind series, this effect could be related to the recording of "average wind gusts" rather than average winds as measured by today's anemometers. In consequence, wind climatologies based on historical data, which recently are becoming available to the scientific community, should be used carefully.

Reconstruction of Atlantic historical winter coastal storms in the Spanish coasts of the Gulf of Cadiz, 1929-2005

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ribera, P.; Gallego, D.; Pena-Ortiz, C.; Del Rio, L.; Plomaritis, T. A.; Benavente, J.

2011-06-01

This paper presents the reconstruction of a climatological series of winter coastal storms on the northern coasts of the Gulf of Cadiz. This series has been put together using information extracted from regional and local Spanish newspapers. It includes all the storms coming from the Atlantic sector that have been detected during the winter season, from October to March, between 1929 and 2005. In order to validate this historical storm series, it has been compared with storms series identified from quasi-observational data and using different wave heights as thresholds to decide what is to be considered as a coastal storm. Nearly 2.6 reports per year about coastal storms are published in the press which correspond to waves of 3.6 m high or more and to prevailing winds from a direction ranging between SSW and WNW. A long- term positive trend has been detected for the complete storm series. If only the instrumental period is analysed, no significant trend is detected. It is suggested that this difference might be associated with the impact of the North Atlantic Oscillation over the occurrence of storms in this area.

Design and development of a community carbon cycle benchmarking system for CMIP5 models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mu, M.; Hoffman, F. M.; Lawrence, D. M.; Riley, W. J.; Keppel-Aleks, G.; Randerson, J. T.

2013-12-01

Benchmarking has been widely used to assess the ability of atmosphere, ocean, sea ice, and land surface models to capture the spatial and temporal variability of observations during the historical period. For the carbon cycle and terrestrial ecosystems, the design and development of an open-source community platform has been an important goal as part of the International Land Model Benchmarking (ILAMB) project. Here we designed and developed a software system that enables the user to specify the models, benchmarks, and scoring systems so that results can be tailored to specific model intercomparison projects. We used this system to evaluate the performance of CMIP5 Earth system models (ESMs). Our scoring system used information from four different aspects of climate, including the climatological mean spatial pattern of gridded surface variables, seasonal cycle dynamics, the amplitude of interannual variability, and long-term decadal trends. We used this system to evaluate burned area, global biomass stocks, net ecosystem exchange, gross primary production, and ecosystem respiration from CMIP5 historical simulations. Initial results indicated that the multi-model mean often performed better than many of the individual models for most of the observational constraints.

Global Measurements of Optically Thin Cirrus Clouds Using CALIOP

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ryan, R. A.; Avery, M. A.; Vaughan, M.

2017-12-01

Optically thin cirrus clouds, defined here as cold clouds consisting of randomly oriented ice crystals and having optical depths (τ) less than 0.3, are difficult to measure accurately. Thin cirrus clouds have been shown to have a net warming effect on the globe but, because passive instruments are not sensitive to optically thin clouds, the occurrence frequency of thin cirrus is greatly underestimated in historical passive sensor cloud climatology. One major strength of Cloud-Aerosol Lidar with Orthogonal Polarization (CALIOP) is its ability to detect these thin cirrus clouds, thus filling an important missing piece in the historical data record. This poster examines multiple years of CALIOP Level 2 data, focusing on those CALIOP retrievals identified as being optically thin (τ < 0.3), having a cold centroid temperature (TC < -40°C), and consisting solely of randomly oriented ice crystals. Using this definition, thin cirrus are identified and counted globally within each season. By examining the spatial, and seasonal distributions of these thin clouds we hope to gain a better understanding of how thin cirrus affect the atmosphere. Understanding when and where these clouds form and persist in the global atmosphere is the topic and focus of the presented poster.

Hydrography change detection: the usefulness of surface channels derived From LiDAR DEMs for updating mapped hydrography

USGS Publications Warehouse

Poppenga, Sandra K.; Gesch, Dean B.; Worstell, Bruce B.

2013-01-01

The 1:24,000-scale high-resolution National Hydrography Dataset (NHD) mapped hydrography flow lines require regular updating because land surface conditions that affect surface channel drainage change over time. Historically, NHD flow lines were created by digitizing surface water information from aerial photography and paper maps. Using these same methods to update nationwide NHD flow lines is costly and inefficient; furthermore, these methods result in hydrography that lacks the horizontal and vertical accuracy needed for fully integrated datasets useful for mapping and scientific investigations. Effective methods for improving mapped hydrography employ change detection analysis of surface channels derived from light detection and ranging (LiDAR) digital elevation models (DEMs) and NHD flow lines. In this article, we describe the usefulness of surface channels derived from LiDAR DEMs for hydrography change detection to derive spatially accurate and time-relevant mapped hydrography. The methods employ analyses of horizontal and vertical differences between LiDAR-derived surface channels and NHD flow lines to define candidate locations of hydrography change. These methods alleviate the need to analyze and update the nationwide NHD for time relevant hydrography, and provide an avenue for updating the dataset where change has occurred.

CMIP5 models' shortwave cloud radiative response and climate sensitivity linked to the climatological Hadley cell extent

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lipat, Bernard R.; Tselioudis, George; Grise, Kevin M.; Polvani, Lorenzo M.

2017-06-01

This study analyzes Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5) model output to examine the covariability of interannual Southern Hemisphere Hadley cell (HC) edge latitude shifts and shortwave cloud radiative effect (SWCRE). In control climate runs, during years when the HC edge is anomalously poleward, most models substantially reduce the shortwave radiation reflected by clouds in the lower midlatitude region (LML; ˜28°S-˜48°S), although no such reduction is seen in observations. These biases in HC-SWCRE covariability are linked to biases in the climatological HC extent. Notably, models with excessively equatorward climatological HC extents have weaker climatological LML subsidence and exhibit larger increases in LML subsidence with poleward HC edge expansion. This behavior, based on control climate interannual variability, has important implications for the CO2-forced model response. In 4×CO2-forced runs, models with excessively equatorward climatological HC extents produce stronger SW cloud radiative warming in the LML region and tend to have larger climate sensitivity values than models with more realistic climatological HC extents.

A Comprehensive Precipitation Data Set for Global Land Areas (TR-051)

DOE Data Explorer

Eischeid, J. K. [Univ. of Colorado, Boulder, CO (United States) Cooperative Inst. for Research in Environmental Sciences (CIRES); NOAA; Diaz, H. F. [Univ. of Colorado, Boulder, CO (United States). Cooperative Inst. for Research in Environmental Sciences (CIRES); NOAA; Bradley, R. S. [University of Massachusetts, Amherst, MA (USA); Jones, P. D. [University of East Anglia, Norwich, United Kingdom

1994-01-01

An expanded and updated compilation of long-term station precipitation data, together with a new set of gridded monthly mean fields for global land areas, are described. The present data set contains 5328 station records of monthly total precipitation, covering the period from the mid-1800s to the late 1980s. The station data were individually tested and visually inspected for the presence of spurious trends, jumps, and other measurement biases. The quality control procedure which was used to check the station records for nonclimatic discontinuities and other biases is detailed. We also discuss some of the problems which typically contribute to potential inhomogeneities in precipitation records. The station data were interpolated onto a 4° latitude by 5° longitude uniform grid. Comparisons of these data with two other global-scale precipitation climatologies are presented. We find good agreement among the three global-scale climatologies over the common areas in each set. Three different indices of long-term precipitation variations over the global land areas all indicate a general increase of annual precipitation since the 1940s, although a decline is evident over the last decade. There is some indication that the last few decades of the 19th century may have been as wet as the recent ones. An interesting feature of this study is the presence of relatively large differences in seasonal trends, with March-May and September-November becoming wetter in the last few decades. The December-February and June-August seasons exhibit smaller overall trends, although the northern winter season does exhibit large decadal-scale fluctuations.

Tardigrada of Ireland: a review of records and an updated checklist of species including a new addition to the Irish fauna

PubMed Central

DeMilio, Erica; Lawton, Colin; Marley, Nigel J.

2016-01-01

Abstract The phylum Tardigrada was not recorded in Ireland until the Clare Island Survey of 1909–1911, with only rare subsequent reports on Irish tardigrade species. In recent decades, significant taxonomic revision has occurred within Tardigrada. This has resulted in the need for a review of all known historical records from Ireland and Northern Ireland in order to produce an updated checklist of valid taxa. The new checklist includes fifty-one tardigrade species and subspecies including a new addition to the Irish fauna reported herein, Echiniscus quadrispinosus quadrispinosus Richters, 1902 from Newtown, Ballyvaughan, Co. Clare. PMID:27667947

Tardigrada of Ireland: a review of records and an updated checklist of species including a new addition to the Irish fauna.

PubMed

DeMilio, Erica; Lawton, Colin; Marley, Nigel J

2016-01-01

The phylum Tardigrada was not recorded in Ireland until the Clare Island Survey of 1909-1911, with only rare subsequent reports on Irish tardigrade species. In recent decades, significant taxonomic revision has occurred within Tardigrada. This has resulted in the need for a review of all known historical records from Ireland and Northern Ireland in order to produce an updated checklist of valid taxa. The new checklist includes fifty-one tardigrade species and subspecies including a new addition to the Irish fauna reported herein, Echiniscus quadrispinosus quadrispinosus Richters, 1902 from Newtown, Ballyvaughan, Co. Clare.

Study of the consistency of climatological products of Nimbus-7

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Dhuria, Harbans L.

1988-01-01

The study, in addition to investigating the consistency of climatological products from Nimbus-7 Earth Radiation Budget and Temperature Humidity Infrared Radiometer experiments, focussed on the climatological analysis of the specified regions of the Earth. The climatological study consisted of the effects of various types of clouds on the net radiation, albedos, and emitted radiation. In addition to a correlational study for determining consistency level of data, a population study of the regions was formulated and conducted. The regions under this study were formed by clustering the target areas using the criteria of climatological conditions such as geography, ocean, and land. Research is limited to tropics from 18 deg north to 18 deg south. A correlational study indicates that there is high positive correlation between high clouds and albedo, and a reduced negative correlation between albedo and net radiation.

Objective analysis of pseudostress over the Indian Ocean using a direct-minimization approach

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Legler, David M.; Navon, I. M.; O'Brien, James J.

1989-01-01

A technique not previously used in objective analysis of meteorological data is used here to produce monthly average surface pseudostress data over the Indian Ocean. An initial guess field is derived and a cost functional is constructed with five terms: approximation to initial guess, approximation to climatology, a smoothness parameter, and two kinematic terms. The functional is minimized using a conjugate-gradient technique, and the weight for the climatology term controls the overall balance of influence between the climatology and the initial guess. Results from various weight combinations are presented for January and July 1984. Quantitative and qualitative comparisons to the subject analysis are made to find which weight combination provides the best results. The weight on the approximation to climatology is found to balance the influence of the original field and climatology.

Supporting Private Sector Decision-Making with NOAA's Interim Climate Data Records (ICDRs)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Privette, J. L.; Glance, W. J.; Cecil, D.; Bates, J. J.

2012-12-01

NOAA initiated its Climate Data Record Program (CDRP) in 2009 to operationally provide authoritative satellite Climate Data Records (CDRs) to the government and the private sector. The CDRs are based primarily on 35+ years of meteorological satellite and in situ data collected by NOAA and the Department of Defense. To date, the Program has transitioned 14 CDRs from research to initial operations. In the past year, the CDRP developed and implemented a framework to continuously extend historical CDRs using Interim Climate Data Records (ICDRs). ICDRs are "first batch" CDRs generated within several days of observation using official CDR algorithms and processes. ICDRs are required by decision support systems and other near-term applications which need current data that are fully consistent with homogeneous historical records. For example, an electrical power utility may need temperature and precipitation ICDRs to optimally identify, in both time and space, the "nearest" historical analog period to recent weather. The utility could then use the contemporaneous business data from that period to inform current decision-making. In addition to their homogeneity and consistency, ICDRs are more complete than operational weather products since ICDR processing can await upstream data delays that can negate data value for weather forecasting. However, the operational nature of ICDRs means their uncertainties typically can be improved through reprocessing once better sensor calibration and characterization data become available. Therefore, ICDRs may be considered valuable but temporary placeholders. However, the "trigger" for electing to update a given record involves many considerations, including cost, latency, downstream dependencies and scientific significance. This presentation provides an update on NOAA's CDR Program, focusing on the new CDRs transitioned to operations in 2012 and the ICDR framework -- including update decision criteria -- used to extend CDRs and meet the needs of near-term applications as well as climate monitoring and indicators activities.

High Spatial Resolution Forecasting of Long-Term Monthly Precipitation and Mean Temperature Trends in Data Scarce Regions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mosier, T. M.; Hill, D. F.; Sharp, K. V.

2013-12-01

High spatial resolution time-series data are critical for many hydrological and earth science studies. Multiple groups have developed historical and forecast datasets of high-resolution monthly time-series for regions of the world such as the United States (e.g. PRISM for hindcast data and MACA for long-term forecasts); however, analogous datasets have not been available for most data scarce regions. The current work fills this data need by producing and freely distributing hindcast and forecast time-series datasets of monthly precipitation and mean temperature for all global land surfaces, gridded at a 30 arc-second resolution. The hindcast data are constructed through a Delta downscaling method, using as inputs 0.5 degree monthly time-series and 30 arc-second climatology global weather datasets developed by Willmott & Matsuura and WorldClim, respectively. The forecast data are formulated using a similar downscaling method, but with an additional step to remove bias from the climate variable's probability distribution over each region of interest. The downscaling package is designed to be compatible with a number of general circulation models (GCM) (e.g. with GCMs developed for the IPCC AR4 report and CMIP5), and is presently implemented using time-series data from the NCAR CESM1 model in conjunction with 30 arc-second future decadal climatologies distributed by the Consultative Group on International Agricultural Research. The resulting downscaled datasets are 30 arc-second time-series forecasts of monthly precipitation and mean temperature available for all global land areas. As an example of these data, historical and forecast 30 arc-second monthly time-series from 1950 through 2070 are created and analyzed for the region encompassing Pakistan. For this case study, forecast datasets corresponding to the future representative concentration pathways 45 and 85 scenarios developed by the IPCC are presented and compared. This exercise highlights a range of potential meteorological trends for the Pakistan region and more broadly serves to demonstrate the utility of the presented 30 arc-second monthly precipitation and mean temperature datasets for use in data scarce regions.

Use of Climatological Data in Weather Insurance.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Changnon, Stanley A.; Changnon, Joyce M.

1990-05-01

There are three major types of crop-related weather insurance: hail, all perlis, and rain insurance. The development of rates is an exercise in applied climatology, and the importance of the historical data selected for assessing risk (and developing rates) is revealed by the problems encountered by firms insuring against deficient summer rainfall during the drought of 1988. Extensive purchase of premiums costing $9 million for coverage ($400 million) in the Midwest occurred with buyers (farmers) apparently aware during May and June 1988 that an unusually dry event was in progress. The levels of loss (50% or less of average June-August rainfall) offered by insurance firms were exceeded throughout the Midwest. The firms attempted to refund the record number of premiums accepted in June, and in turn, 8000 farmers filed a class-action suit against the firms for failure to accept premiums and to provide coverage. The insurance firms ultimately settled by agreeing to pay $48 million in claims. The coverage offered was based on the most recent 25 years of data, and this unusually wet period did not represent the longer-term likelihood of areally extensive dry summers. Uses of climatic data by the insurance industry include planning for the occurrence of such extreme event considerations, plus point vs area probabilities of these anomalous events; choosing the periods to select for routinely establishing new rates (rerating is typically done an 2- to 10-year cycles); and for determining the averages most appropriate to use for rate levels and sales considerations.

Evaluation of Daily Extreme Precipitation Derived From Long-term Global Satellite Quantitative Precipitation Estimates (QPEs)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Prat, O. P.; Nelson, B. R.; Nickl, E.; Ferraro, R. R.

2017-12-01

This study evaluates the ability of different satellite-based precipitation products to capture daily precipitation extremes over the entire globe. The satellite products considered are the datasets belonging to the Reference Environmental Data Records (REDRs) program (PERSIANN-CDR, GPCP, CMORPH, AMSU-A,B, Hydrologic bundle). Those products provide long-term global records of daily adjusted Quantitative Precipitation Estimates (QPEs) that range from 20-year (CMORPH-CDR) to 35-year (PERSIANN-CDR, GPCP) record of daily adjusted global precipitation. The AMSU-A,B, Hydro-bundle is an 11-year record of daily rain rate over land and ocean, snow cover and surface temperature over land, and sea ice concentration, cloud liquid water, and total precipitable water over ocean among others. The aim of this work is to evaluate the ability of the different satellite QPE products to capture daily precipitation extremes. This evaluation will also include comparison with in-situ data sets at the daily scale from the Global Historical Climatology Network (GHCN-Daily), the Global Precipitation Climatology Centre (GPCC) gridded full data daily product, and the US Climate Reference Network (USCRN). In addition, while the products mentioned above only provide QPEs, the AMSU-A,B hydro-bundle provides additional hydrological information (precipitable water, cloud liquid water, snow cover, sea ice concentration). We will also present an analysis of those additional variables available from global satellite measurements and their relevance and complementarity in the context of long-term hydrological and climate studies.

Merging Radar Quantitative Precipitation Estimates (QPEs) from the High-resolution NEXRAD Reanalysis over CONUS with Rain-gauge Observations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Prat, O. P.; Nelson, B. R.; Stevens, S. E.; Nickl, E.; Seo, D. J.; Kim, B.; Zhang, J.; Qi, Y.

2015-12-01

The processing of radar-only precipitation via the reanalysis from the National Mosaic and Multi-Sensor Quantitative (NMQ/Q2) based on the WSR-88D Next-generation Radar (Nexrad) network over the Continental United States (CONUS) is completed for the period covering from 2002 to 2011. While this constitutes a unique opportunity to study precipitation processes at higher resolution than conventionally possible (1-km, 5-min), the long-term radar-only product needs to be merged with in-situ information in order to be suitable for hydrological, meteorological and climatological applications. The radar-gauge merging is performed by using rain gauge information at daily (Global Historical Climatology Network-Daily: GHCN-D), hourly (Hydrometeorological Automated Data System: HADS), and 5-min (Automated Surface Observing Systems: ASOS; Climate Reference Network: CRN) resolution. The challenges related to incorporating differing resolution and quality networks to generate long-term large-scale gridded estimates of precipitation are enormous. In that perspective, we are implementing techniques for merging the rain gauge datasets and the radar-only estimates such as Inverse Distance Weighting (IDW), Simple Kriging (SK), Ordinary Kriging (OK), and Conditional Bias-Penalized Kriging (CBPK). An evaluation of the different radar-gauge merging techniques is presented and we provide an estimate of uncertainty for the gridded estimates. In addition, comparisons with a suite of lower resolution QPEs derived from ground based radar measurements (Stage IV) are provided in order to give a detailed picture of the improvements and remaining challenges.

oldWeather.org: Citizen Science for Climate Reconstruction

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Brohan, P.

2012-12-01

Most of us care about today's weather, and the predictions for tomorrow's; but the weather of decades and centuries ago has traditionally been of interest only to a handful of historians and climatologists. However, the increasing concern about the consequences of climate change is raising the profile of historical climatology - a good understanding of past climate is needed to judge whether today's storms and droughts are unusual, and to add confidence and context to predictions of future change. `Old weather' is changing from an academic speciality into an area of public interest, and reconstructions of past climate are being subjected to intense critical inspection. This increased public interest is a challenge for scientists, as they have to communicate their methods and results to a much wider audience; but also an opportunity, as the public can actively help with scientific projects. The oldWeather project (http://oldweather.org) takes advantage of this interest by engaging a large community of interested volunteers, who are recovering the millions of archived historic weather observations needed to reconstruct the past weather and climate. Over the past 18 months, more than 12,000 volunteers have been reading the logbooks of 300 Royal Navy ships from the period 1914-22, and transcribing the frequent and regular weather observations they contain. The wide area of operation of the Royal Navy means that the observations recovered improve historical weather reconstructions over a large fraction of the world. As well as the new climate records, the project has produced a wealth of historical information for the Navy of the period, and an active community of volunteer researchers. The project is now being extended to look at US records - from the Navy and revenue service.

Direct and semi-direct effects of aerosol climatologies on long-term climate simulations over Europe

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schultze, Markus; Rockel, Burkhardt

2017-08-01

This study compares the direct and semi-direct aerosol effects of different annual cycles of tropospheric aerosol loads for Europe from 1950 to 2009 using the regional climate model COSMO-CLM, which is laterally forced by reanalysis data and run using prescribed, climatological aerosol optical properties. These properties differ with respect to the analysis strategy and the time window, and are then used for the same multi-decadal period. Five simulations with different aerosol loads and one control simulation without any tropospheric aerosols are integrated and compared. Two common limitations of our simulation strategy, to fully assess direct and semi-direct aerosol effects, are the applied observed sea surface temperatures and sea ice conditions, and the lack of short-term variations in the aerosol load. Nevertheless, the impact of different aerosol climatologies on common regional climate model simulations can be assessed. The results of all aerosol-including simulations show a distinct reduction in solar irradiance at the surface compared with that in the control simulation. This reduction is strongest in the summer season and is balanced primarily by a weakening of turbulent heat fluxes and to a lesser extent by a decrease in longwave emissions. Consequently, the seasonal mean surface cooling is modest. The temperature profile responses are characterized by a shallow near-surface cooling and a dominant warming up to the mid-troposphere caused by aerosol absorption. The resulting stabilization of stratification leads to reduced cloud cover and less precipitation. A decrease in cloud water and ice content over Central Europe in summer possibly reinforce aerosol absorption and thus strengthen the vertical warming. The resulting radiative forcings are positive. The robustness of the results was demonstrated by performing a simulation with very strong aerosol forcing, which lead to qualitatively similar results. A distinct added value over the default aerosol setup of Tanré et al. (1984) was found in the simulations with more recent aerosol data sets for solar irradiance. The improvements are largest under low cloud conditions, while overestimated cloud cover in all setups causes a common underestimation of low and medium values of solar irradiance. In addition, the prevalent cold bias in the COSMO-CLM is reduced in winter and spring when using updated aerosol data. Our results emphasize the importance of semi-direct aerosol effects, especially over Central Europe in terms of changes in turbulent fluxes and changes in cloud properties. We also suggest to replace the default Tanré et al. (1984) aerosol climatology with more recent and realistic data sets. Thereby, a better model performance in comparison to observations can be achieved, or the masking of model shortcomings due to a too strong direct aerosol forcing thus far is prevented.

Radio Frequency Propagation and Performance Assessment Suite (RFPPAS)

DTIC Science & Technology

2016-11-15

Intelligence, Surveillance, and Reconnaissance Clutter-to-Noise Ratio Central Processing Unit Evaporation Duct Climatology Engineer’s Refractive Effects...and maximum trapped wavelength (right) PCS display ...23 12. AREPS surface layer (evaporation duct) climatology regions...evaporation duct profiles computed from surface layer climatological statistics. The impetus for building such a database is to provide a means for instant

Polar lows in the Labrador Sea based on the Moravian historical collection of meteorological data in Labrador and Greenland since the mid-18th century

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Matiu, Michael; Lüdecke, Cornelia; Newell, Dianne; Menzel, Annette

2017-04-01

Systematically recorded daily instrumental meteorological data from the Moravian Brethern mission stations located on the east coast of Labrador and southwest coast of Greenland during the 18th, 19th and 20th centuries provide a most valuable source of historical climatological data in the Subarctic region. Although the collections of original data themselves are both scattered in physical location and fragmented in their coverage of time and place, and large amounts still need to be digitized, this data provides large potential for studying climate extreme events in this remote region. In this paper, we study polar lows (PLs). They are high-latitude intense maritime cyclones with only 200 to 1000 km in diameter, a short life-time of only two days, mostly occurring in wintertime, e.g. in the Norwegian, Barents, but also Labrador and Greenland seas. Due to high wind speeds exceeding 30 m s-1, high ocean waves and heavy snow showers, they constitute a major hazard risk difficult to forecast. Published papers indicate that with future climate warming, the frequency of PLs is predicted to decrease; however, climatologies of PLs for the last 7 decades (1948-2009) based on reanalysis data and satellite remote sensing products did not indicate any change in their mean annual frequency. In our digitized long-term dataset (1846-2015) for one Moravian station at Nain, Labrador, we identified PLs as follows: If there was a drop in air pressure of at least 30hPa during 48 hours, we marked it as a preliminary event. Then, each preliminary event was checked manually to see whether additional changes in air pressure, air temperature, wind direction and wind speed matched the known textbook example. If more than two variables showed the required pattern, the preliminary event was identified as PL. Our analysis revealed an average frequency of 5.6 PLs yr-1 for 1846-1853, 5.2 PLs yr-1(1882-1913), and 4.4 PLs yr-1 (1926-1939), largely confirming long-term averages for the more recent periods 1948-2005 (4.9 PLs yr-1) as well as 1977-1994 (4.4 PLs yr-1) reported in the literature. Once more data from the historical Moravian collection is digitized, it may be checked whether there is a stable tendency of more annual PLs in the mid-19th century compared to recent numbers of this extreme event. With respect of the boundary conditions in which PLs are developing, our data from the mid-19th century cannot confirm recent findings that the occurrence of PLs is mainly associated with NAO+ phases. Due to additional concurrently operating Moravian climate stations at the eastern Labrador and southwestern Greenland coasts, the moving of PLs and PL clusters over the Labrador Sea and southern Davis Strait can be confirmed based on this unique historical subarctic climate data.

Tree-ring-based estimates of long-term seasonal precipitation in the Souris River Region of Saskatchewan, North Dakota and Manitoba

USGS Publications Warehouse

Ryberg, Karen R.; Vecchia, Aldo V.; Akyüz, F. Adnan; Lin, Wei

2016-01-01

Historically unprecedented flooding occurred in the Souris River Basin of Saskatchewan, North Dakota and Manitoba in 2011, during a longer term period of wet conditions in the basin. In order to develop a model of future flows, there is a need to evaluate effects of past multidecadal climate variability and/or possible climate change on precipitation. In this study, tree-ring chronologies and historical precipitation data in a four-degree buffer around the Souris River Basin were analyzed to develop regression models that can be used for predicting long-term variations of precipitation. To focus on longer term variability, 12-year moving average precipitation was modeled in five subregions (determined through cluster analysis of measures of precipitation) of the study area over three seasons (November–February, March–June and July–October). The models used multiresolution decomposition (an additive decomposition based on powers of two using a discrete wavelet transform) of tree-ring chronologies from Canada and the US and seasonal 12-year moving average precipitation based on Adjusted and Homogenized Canadian Climate Data and US Historical Climatology Network data. Results show that precipitation varies on long-term (multidecadal) time scales of 16, 32 and 64 years. Past extended pluvial and drought events, which can vary greatly with season and subregion, were highlighted by the models. Results suggest that the recent wet period may be a part of natural variability on a very long time scale.

The relative importance among anthropogenic forcings of land use/land cover change in affecting temperature extremes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chen, Liang; Dirmeyer, Paul A.

2018-05-01

Land use/land cover change (LULCC) exerts significant influence on regional climate extremes, but its relative importance compared with other anthropogenic climate forcings has not been thoroughly investigated. This study compares land use forcing with other forcing agents in explaining the simulated historical temperature extreme changes since preindustrial times in the CESM-Last Millennium Ensemble (LME) project. CESM-LME suggests that the land use forcing has caused an overall cooling in both warm and cold extremes, and has significantly decreased diurnal temperature range (DTR). Due to the competing effects of the GHG and aerosol forcings, the spatial pattern of changes in 1850-2005 climatology of temperature extremes in CESM-LME can be largely explained by the land use forcing, especially for hot extremes and DTR. The dominance of land use forcing is particularly evident over Europe, eastern China, and the central and eastern US. Temporally, the land-use cooling is relatively stable throughout the historical period, while the warming of temperature extremes is mainly influenced by the enhanced GHG forcing, which has gradually dampened the local dominance of the land use effects. Results from the suite of CMIP5 experiments partially agree with the local dominance of the land use forcing in CESM-LME, but inter-model discrepancies exist in the distribution and sign of the LULCC-induced temperature changes. Our results underline the overall importance of LULCC in historical temperature extreme changes, implying land use forcing should be highlighted in future climate projections.

From Cyclone Tracks to the Costs of European Winter Storms: A Probabilistic Loss Assessment Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Orwig, K.; Renggli, D.; Corti, T.; Reese, S.; Wueest, M.; Viktor, E.; Zimmerli, P.

2014-12-01

European winter storms cause billions of dollars of insured losses every year. Therefore, it is essential to understand potential impacts of future events, and the role reinsurance can play to mitigate the losses. The authors will present an overview on natural catastrophe risk assessment modeling in the reinsurance industry, and the development of a new innovative approach for modeling the risk associated with European winter storms.The new innovative approach includes the development of physically meaningful probabilistic (i.e. simulated) events for European winter storm loss assessment. The meteorological hazard component of the new model is based on cyclone and windstorm tracks identified in the 20thCentury Reanalysis data. The knowledge of the evolution of winter storms both in time and space allows the physically meaningful perturbation of historical event properties (e.g. track, intensity, etc.). The perturbation includes a random element but also takes the local climatology and the evolution of the historical event into account.The low-resolution wind footprints taken from the 20thCentury Reanalysis are processed by a statistical-dynamical downscaling to generate high-resolution footprints for both the simulated and historical events. Downscaling transfer functions are generated using ENSEMBLES regional climate model data. The result is a set of reliable probabilistic events representing thousands of years. The event set is then combined with country and site-specific vulnerability functions and detailed market- or client-specific information to compute annual expected losses.

A forensic re-analysis of one of the deadliest European tornadoes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Holzer, Alois M.; Schreiner, Thomas M. E.; Púčik, Tomáš

2018-06-01

Extremely rare events with high potential impact, such as violent tornadoes, are of strong interest for climatology and risk assessment. In order to obtain more knowledge about the most extreme events, it is vital to study historical cases. The purpose of this paper is twofold: (1) to demonstrate how a windstorm catastrophe that happened 100 years ago, such as the Wiener Neustadt, Lower Austria, tornado on 10 July 1916, can be successfully re-analyzed using a forensic approach, and (2) to propose a repeatable working method for assessing damage and reconstructing the path and magnitude of local windstorm and tornado cases with sufficient historical sources. Based on the results of the forensic re-analyses, a chronology of the tornado impact is presented, followed by a description of the key tornado characteristics: a maximum intensity rating of F4, a damage path length of 20 km and a maximum visible tornado diameter of 1 km. Compared to a historical scientific study published soon after the event, additional new findings are presented, namely the existence of two predecessor tornadoes and a higher number of fatalities: at least 34 instead of 32. While the storm-scale meteorology could not be reconstructed, rich damage data sources for the urban area of Wiener Neustadt facilitated a detailed analysis of damage tracks and wind intensities within the tornado. The authors postulate the requirement for an International Fujita Scale to rate tornadoes globally in a consistent way, based on comparable damage indicators.

Historical floods reconstruction using NOAA 20CR global climate reanalysis over the last 150 years

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mathevet, T.; Brigode, P.; Jégonday, S.; Hingray, B.; Gailhard, J.; Wilhelm, B.

2017-12-01

Since several years, climatologists are producing long reanalysis for studying the variability of global climate over the last 150 years. For hydrologists, these datasets offer interesting opportunities for reconstructing historical flood events, and thus increasing the sample size used for flood frequency analysis. In this study, a streamflow reconstruction method based on the analogy of atmospheric situations (using NOAA 20CR reanalysis) for the reconstruction of climatic series and on a rainfall-runoff model for the streamflow reconstruction has been applied over different French catchments at the daily timestep. The studied catchments have been selected because of the availability of long observed streamflow series (used for quantifying the performances of the flood reconstructions) and for their different hydro-climatological regimes. Different methodologies have been tested for the reconstruction of daily climatic series over the 1851-2014 period, using geopotential heights and additional variables available within the 20CR reanalysis (relative humidity, precipitable water, etc.). Long observed climatic series have also been used when available as a reference for the climatic reconstructions. The different reconstruction methods have been finally ranked in terms of their historical flood reconstruction performances, quantified by flood types (autumn or winter floods) and atmospheric genesis (using a weather pattern classification). The obtained results indicate that using additional 20CR variables to the geopotential heights only slightly improve the flood reconstructions, while using observed climatic series improves significantly the flood reconstruction over the different catchments.

The Adaptive Ecosystem Climatology (AEC): Design and Development

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

deRada, S.; Penta, B.; McCarthy, S.; Gould, R. W., Jr.

2016-02-01

The concept of ecosystem-based management (EBM), recently introduced to rectify the shortcomings of single-species management policies, has been widely accepted as a basis for the conservation and management of natural resources. In line with NOAA's Integrated Ecosystem Assessment (IEA) Program, EBM is an integrated approach that considers the entire ecosystem and the interactions among species rather than focusing on individual components. This integrative approach relies on heterogeneous data, physical as well as biogeochemical data, among many others. Relative to physical data, however, marine biogeochemical records, also critical in IEA and EBM, are still lacking, both in terms of mature models and in terms of observational data availability. TheAdaptive Ecosystem Climatology (AEC) was conceived as a novel approach to address these limitations, mitigating the shortcomings of the individual components and combining their strengths to enhance decision-making activities. AEC is designed on the concept that a high-frequency climatology can be used as a baseline into which available observational data can be ingested to produce a higher accuracy product. In the absence of observations, the climatology acts as a best estimate. AEC was developed using a long-term simulation of a coupled biophysical numerical model configured for the Gulf of Mexico. Using the model results, we constructed a three-dimensional, dynamically balanced, gridded, static climatology for each calendar day. Using this `static' climatology as a background `first guess', observations from a particular date are ingested via optimal interpolation to `nudge' the climatology toward current conditions, thus providing representative fields for that date (adaptive climatology). With this adaptive approach, AEC can support a variety of EBM objectives, from fisheries, to resource management, to coastal resilience.

Spatio-temporal precipitation climatology over complex terrain using a censored additive regression model.

PubMed

Stauffer, Reto; Mayr, Georg J; Messner, Jakob W; Umlauf, Nikolaus; Zeileis, Achim

2017-06-15

Flexible spatio-temporal models are widely used to create reliable and accurate estimates for precipitation climatologies. Most models are based on square root transformed monthly or annual means, where a normal distribution seems to be appropriate. This assumption becomes invalid on a daily time scale as the observations involve large fractions of zero observations and are limited to non-negative values. We develop a novel spatio-temporal model to estimate the full climatological distribution of precipitation on a daily time scale over complex terrain using a left-censored normal distribution. The results demonstrate that the new method is able to account for the non-normal distribution and the large fraction of zero observations. The new climatology provides the full climatological distribution on a very high spatial and temporal resolution, and is competitive with, or even outperforms existing methods, even for arbitrary locations.

Spherical harmonic analysis of a model-generated climatology

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Christidis, Z. D.; Spar, J.

1981-01-01

Monthly mean fields of 850 mb temperature (T850), 500 mb geopotential height (G500) and sea level pressure (SLP) were generated in the course of a five-year climate simulation run with a global general circulation model. Both the model-generated climatology and an observed climatology were subjected to spherical harmonic analysis, with separate analyses of the globe and the Northern Hemisphere. Comparison of the dominant harmonics of the two climatologies indicates that more than 95% of the area-weighted spatial variance of G500 and more than 90% of that of T850 are explained by fewer than three components, and that the model adequately simulates these large-scale characteristics. On the other hand, as many as 25 harmonics are needed to explain 95% of the observed variance of SLP, and the model simulation of this field is much less satisfactory. The model climatology is also evaluated in terms of the annual cycles of the dominant harmonics.

OCS National Compendium

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Gould, G.J.; Karpas, R.M.; Slitor, D.L.

1991-06-01

The Minerals Management Service's (MMS) Outer Continental Shelf Information Program (OCSIP) is responsible for making available to affected coastal States, local governments, and other interested parties data and information related to the Outer Continental Shelf (OCS) Oil and Gas Program. Since its establishment through Section 26 of the OCS Lands Act (OCSLA) Amendments of 1978, OCSIP has prepared regional summary reports, updates, and indexes on leasing, exploration, development, and production activities to fulfill the mandates of the OCSLA Amendments. The OCSIP receives many requests for out-of-print summary reports, updates, and indexes. The purpose of the OCS National Compendium is tomore » consolidate these historical data and to present the data on an OCS-wide and regional scale. The single-volume approach allows the reader access to historical information and facilitates regional comparisons. The fold-out chart in the front of this publication provides the reader with a timeline (January 1988--November 1990) of events since publication of the last Compendium. Some of the events are directly related to the 5-year Oil and Gas Program, whereas others may or may not have an effect on the program. A predominantly graphic format is used in the report so that the large accumulation of data can be more readily comprehended. In some cases, it is not possible to update information through October 21, 1990, because of the nature of the data. For example, production data normally lags 3 months. 58 figs., 37 tabs.« less

Using historical and projected future climate model simulations as drivers of agricultural and biological models (Invited)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Stefanova, L. B.

2013-12-01

Climate model evaluation is frequently performed as a first step in analyzing climate change simulations. Atmospheric scientists are accustomed to evaluating climate models through the assessment of model climatology and biases, the models' representation of large-scale modes of variability (such as ENSO, PDO, AMO, etc) and the relationship between these modes and local variability (e.g. the connection between ENSO and the wintertime precipitation in the Southeast US). While these provide valuable information about the fidelity of historical and projected climate model simulations from an atmospheric scientist's point of view, the application of climate model data to fields such as agriculture, ecology and biology may require additional analyses focused on the particular application's requirements and sensitivities. Typically, historical climate simulations are used to determine a mapping between the model and observed climate, either through a simple (additive for temperature or multiplicative for precipitation) or a more sophisticated (such as quantile matching) bias correction on a monthly or seasonal time scale. Plants, animals and humans however are not directly affected by monthly or seasonal means. To assess the impact of projected climate change on living organisms and related industries (e.g. agriculture, forestry, conservation, utilities, etc.), derivative measures such as the heating degree-days (HDD), cooling degree-days (CDD), growing degree-days (GDD), accumulated chill hours (ACH), wet season onset (WSO) and duration (WSD), among others, are frequently useful. We will present a comparison of the projected changes in such derivative measures calculated by applying: (a) the traditional temperature/precipitation bias correction described above versus (b) a bias correction based on the mapping between the historical model and observed derivative measures themselves. In addition, we will present and discuss examples of various application-based climate model evaluations, such as: (a) agricultural crop yield estimates and (b) species population viability estimates modeled using observed climate data vs. historical climate simulations.

Measuring food environments: a historical perspective.

PubMed

Glanz, Karen

2009-04-01

Food and nutrition environments are believed to contribute to obesity and chronic diseases. There is a need for valid, reliable measures of nutrition environments. Familiarity with previous efforts to measure food and nutrition environments can help researchers and practitioners build on past accomplishments. This article describes sources of food-environment data, discusses how they have been used, and places the definition and measurement of food and nutrition environments in historical context. Review articles, agency websites, and peer-reviewed articles were the main sources of information. The review is organized around three main types of data sources identified as historic traditions: government, industry, and research. Types of data include archives, business monitoring records, surveys, observational assessments, and self-report surveys. Future development of clear, adaptable measures of food and nutrition environments will build on lessons of the past and will update and improve on past tools.

Lower Costs, Higher Returns: UNCF HBCUs in a High-Priced College Environment. Financing African American College Aspirations Series

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Richards, David A. R.

2014-01-01

While research consistently shows the earning power of college degrees, those returns are best weighed against the cost of attending post-secondary institutions, historically black colleges and universities (HBCUs) included. This study is an update of "Affordability of UNCF-Member Institutions" (2009), and compares the average costs at…

Operational Area Environmental Evaluations

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Bailey-White, Brenda Eileen; Nagy, Michael David; Wagner, Katrina Marie

The Operational Area Environmental Evaluation update provides a description of activities that have the potential to adversely affect natural and cultural resources, including soil, air, water, biological, ecological, and historical resources. The environmental sensitivity of an area is evaluated and summarized, which may facilitate informed management decisions as to where development may be prohibited, restricted, or subject to additional requirements.

Manpower Policies and Programs; A Review, 1935-75.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Clague, Ewan; Kramer, Leo

Constituting an update to a previous publication that interpreted the directions of United States manpower policy subsequent to World War II, this publication places the previous essay in the historical context of manpower policies that reach back to the Great Depression of the 1930's and the Employment Act of 1946; and to policy options now…

Two Decades after: "After the Wake--Postpositivistic Educational Thought"

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Phillips, D. C.

2004-01-01

This essay is an updating of one that was published exactly two decades ago; in the intervening years there has been a revival of interest in positivism as a historical phenomenon in epistemology and philosophy of science (some references to which are given), but there also has been heightened awareness of the various weaknesses of the positivist…

Predicting coral bleaching hotspots: the role of regional variability in thermal stress and potential adaptation rates

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Teneva, Lida; Karnauskas, Mandy; Logan, Cheryl A.; Bianucci, Laura; Currie, Jock C.; Kleypas, Joan A.

2012-03-01

Sea surface temperature fields (1870-2100) forced by CO2-induced climate change under the IPCC SRES A1B CO2 scenario, from three World Climate Research Programme Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 3 (WCRP CMIP3) models (CCSM3, CSIRO MK 3.5, and GFDL CM 2.1), were used to examine how coral sensitivity to thermal stress and rates of adaption affect global projections of coral-reef bleaching. The focus of this study was two-fold, to: (1) assess how the impact of Degree-Heating-Month (DHM) thermal stress threshold choice affects potential bleaching predictions and (2) examine the effect of hypothetical adaptation rates of corals to rising temperature. DHM values were estimated using a conventional threshold of 1°C and a variability-based threshold of 2σ above the climatological maximum Coral adaptation rates were simulated as a function of historical 100-year exposure to maximum annual SSTs with a dynamic rather than static climatological maximum based on the previous 100 years, for a given reef cell. Within CCSM3 simulations, the 1°C threshold predicted later onset of mild bleaching every 5 years for the fraction of reef grid cells where 1°C > 2σ of the climatology time series of annual SST maxima (1961-1990). Alternatively, DHM values using both thresholds, with CSIRO MK 3.5 and GFDL CM 2.1 SSTs, did not produce drastically different onset timing for bleaching every 5 years. Across models, DHMs based on 1°C thermal stress threshold show the most threatened reefs by 2100 could be in the Central and Western Equatorial Pacific, whereas use of the variability-based threshold for DHMs yields the Coral Triangle and parts of Micronesia and Melanesia as bleaching hotspots. Simulations that allow corals to adapt to increases in maximum SST drastically reduce the rates of bleaching. These findings highlight the importance of considering the thermal stress threshold in DHM estimates as well as potential adaptation models in future coral bleaching projections.

The response of future projections of the North American monsoon when combining dynamical downscaling and bias correction of CCSM4 output

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Meyer, Jonathan D. D.; Jin, Jiming

2017-07-01

A 20-km regional climate model (RCM) dynamically downscaled the Community Climate System Model version 4 (CCSM4) to compare 32-year historical and future "end-of-the-century" climatologies of the North American Monsoon (NAM). CCSM4 and other phase 5 Coupled Model Intercomparison Project models have indicated a delayed NAM and overall general drying trend. Here, we test the suggested mechanism for this drier NAM where increasing atmospheric static stability and reduced early-season evapotranspiration under global warming will limit early-season convection and compress the mature-season of the NAM. Through our higher resolution RCM, we found the role of accelerated evaporation under a warmer climate is likely understated in coarse resolution models such as CCSM4. Improving the representation of mesoscale interactions associated with the Gulf of California and surrounding topography produced additional surface evaporation, which overwhelmed the convection-suppressing effects of a warmer troposphere. Furthermore, the improved land-sea temperature gradient helped drive stronger southerly winds and greater moisture transport. Finally, we addressed limitations from inherent CCSM4 biases through a form of mean bias correction, which resulted in a more accurate seasonality of the atmospheric thermodynamic profile. After bias correction, greater surface evaporation from average peak GoC SSTs of 32 °C compared to 29 °C from the original CCSM4 led to roughly 50 % larger changes to low-level moist static energy compared to that produced by the downscaled original CCSM4. The increasing destabilization of the NAM environment produced onset dates that were one to 2 weeks earlier in the core of the NAM and northern extent, respectively. Furthermore, a significantly more vigorous NAM signal was produced after bias correction, with >50 mm month-1 increases to the June-September precipitation found along east and west coasts of Mexico and into parts of Texas. A shift towards more extreme daily precipitation was found in both downscaled climatologies, with the bias-corrected climatology containing a much more apparent and extreme shift.

A Precipitation Climatology of the Snowy Mountains, Australia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Theobald, Alison; McGowan, Hamish; Speirs, Johanna

2014-05-01

The precipitation that falls in the Snowy Mountains region of southeastern Australia provides critical water resources for hydroelectric power generation. Water storages in this region are also a major source of agricultural irrigation, environmental flows, and offer a degree of flood protection for some of the major river systems in Australia. Despite this importance, there remains a knowledge gap regarding the long-term, historic variability of the synoptic weather systems that deliver precipitation to the region. This research aims to increase the understanding of long-term variations in precipitation-bearing weather systems resulting in runoff into the Snowy Mountains catchments and reservoirs, and the way in which these are influenced by large-scale climate drivers. Here we present initial results on the development of a climatology of precipitation-bearing synoptic weather systems (synoptic typology), spanning a period of over 100 years. The synoptic typology is developed from the numerical weather model re-analysis data from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF), in conjunction with regional precipitation and temperature data from a network of private gauges. Given the importance of surface, mid- and upper-air patterns on seasonal precipitation, the synoptic typing will be based on a range of meteorological variables throughout the depth of the troposphere, highlighting the importance of different atmospheric levels on the development and steering of synoptic precipitation bearing systems. The temporal and spatial variability of these synoptic systems, their response to teleconnection forcings and their contribution to inflow generation in the headwater catchments of the Snowy Mountains will be investigated. The resulting climatology will provide new understanding of the drivers of regional-scale precipitation variability at inter- and intra-annual timescales. It will enable greater understanding of how variability in synoptic scale atmospheric circulation affects the hydroclimate of alpine environments in southeast Australia - allowing recently observed precipitation declines to be placed in the context of a long-term record spanning at least 100 years. This information will provide further insight into the impacts of predicted anthropogenic climate change and will ultimately lead to more informed water resource management in the Snowy Mountains.

Storm-tracks interannual variability and large-scale climate modes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liberato, Margarida L. R.; Trigo, Isabel F.; Trigo, Ricardo M.

2013-04-01

In this study we focus on the interannual variability and observed changes in northern hemisphere mid-latitude storm-tracks and relate them to large scale atmospheric circulation variability modes. Extratropical storminess, cyclones dominant paths, frequency and intensity have long been the object of climatological studies. The analysis of storm characteristics and historical trends presented here is based on the cyclone detecting and tracking algorithm first developed for the Mediterranean region (Trigo et al. 1999) and recently extended to a larger Euro-Atlantic region (Trigo 2006). The objective methodology, which identifies and follows individual lows as minima in SLP fields, fulfilling a set of conditions regarding the central pressure and the pressure gradient, is applied to the northern hemisphere 6-hourly geopotential data at 1000 hPa from the 20th Century Reanalyses (20CRv2) project and from reanalyses datasets provided by the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF): ERA-40 and ERA Interim reanalyses. First, we assess the interannual variability and cyclone frequency trends for each of the datasets, for the 20th century and for the period between 1958 and 2002 using the highest spatial resolution available (1.125° x 1.125°) from the ERA-40 data. Results show that winter variability of storm paths, cyclone frequency and travel times is in agreement with the reported variability in a number of large-scale climate patterns (including the North Atlantic Oscillation, the East Atlantic Pattern and the Scandinavian Pattern). In addition, three storm-track databases are built spanning the common available extended winter seasons from October 1979 to March 2002. Although relatively short, this common period allows a comparison of systems represented in reanalyses datasets with distinct horizontal resolutions. This exercise is mostly focused on the key areas of cyclogenesis and cyclolysis and main cyclone characteristics over the northern hemisphere. Trigo IF., TD Davies, GR Bigg (1999) Objective climatology of cyclones in the Mediterranean region. J. Climate 12: 1685-1696. Trigo IF (2006) Climatology and interannual variability of storm-tracks in the Euro-Atlantic sector: a comparison between ERA-40 and NCEP/NCAR reanalyses. Clim. Dyn. 26: 127-143.

Changing monsoon and midlatitude circulation interactions over the Western Himalayas and possible links to occurrences of extreme precipitation

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Priya, P.; Krishnan, R.; Mujumdar, Milind

Historical rainfall records reveal that the frequency and intensity of extreme precipitation events, during the summer monsoon (June to September) season, have significantly risen over the Western Himalayas (WH) and adjoining upper Indus basin since 1950s. Using multiple datasets, the present study investigates the possible coincidences between an increasing trend of precipitation extremes over WH and changes in background flow climatology. The present findings suggest that the combined effects of a weakened southwest monsoon circulation, increased activity of transient upper-air westerly troughs over the WH region, enhanced moisture supply by southerly winds from the Arabian Sea into the Indus basinmore » have likely provided favorable conditions for an increased frequency of certain types of extreme precipitation events over the WH region in recent decades.« less

Endless cold: a seasonal reconstruction of temperature and precipitation in the Burgundian Low Countries during the 15th century based on documentary evidence

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Camenisch, C.

2015-03-01

This paper applies the methods of historical climatology to present a climate reconstruction for the area of the Burgundian Low Countries during the 15th century. The results are based on documentary evidence that has been handled very carefully, especially with regard to the distinction between contemporary and non-contemporary sources. Approximately 3000 written records deriving from about 100 different sources were examined and converted into seasonal seven-degree indices for temperature and precipitation. For the Late Middle Ages only a few climate reconstructions exist. There are even fewer reconstructions which include winter and autumn temperature or precipitation at all. This paper therefore constitutes a useful contribution to the understanding of climate and weather conditions in the less well researched but highly interesting 15th century.

On the Increase in Evaporation, Climate Change Dissent

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

DeVore, M. E.

2017-12-01

To better understand the effects of global warming, I analyzed the Pan Evaporation Rate and Precipitation data in the Global Historical Climatology Dataset provided by NOAA. With this data, I show a clear increase in temperature resulting in an anomaly in the Pan Evaporation Rate that is then confirmed in the analysis of the precipitation dataset. In comparing the behavior of the data before 2005 to the data from 2005 and later, I will show a significant change that warrents greater investigation. In particular, I will show how the behavior of the NOAA data closely correlates with that of Solar Cycle 24, as opposed to other man-made causes as suggested by current theory. Due to the distinct nature and timing of the anomaly, this analysis of the NOAA data set provides a counter-argument to anthropogenic climate change.

Snow water equivalent in the Alps as seen by gridded data sets, CMIP5 and CORDEX climate models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Terzago, Silvia; von Hardenberg, Jost; Palazzi, Elisa; Provenzale, Antonello

2017-07-01

The estimate of the current and future conditions of snow resources in mountain areas would require reliable, kilometre-resolution, regional-observation-based gridded data sets and climate models capable of properly representing snow processes and snow-climate interactions. At the moment, the development of such tools is hampered by the sparseness of station-based reference observations. In past decades passive microwave remote sensing and reanalysis products have mainly been used to infer information on the snow water equivalent distribution. However, the investigation has usually been limited to flat terrains as the reliability of these products in mountain areas is poorly characterized.This work considers the available snow water equivalent data sets from remote sensing and from reanalyses for the greater Alpine region (GAR), and explores their ability to provide a coherent view of the snow water equivalent distribution and climatology in this area. Further we analyse the simulations from the latest-generation regional and global climate models (RCMs, GCMs), participating in the Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment over the European domain (EURO-CORDEX) and in the Fifth Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) respectively. We evaluate their reliability in reproducing the main drivers of snow processes - near-surface air temperature and precipitation - against the observational data set EOBS, and compare the snow water equivalent climatology with the remote sensing and reanalysis data sets previously considered. We critically discuss the model limitations in the historical period and we explore their potential in providing reliable future projections.The results of the analysis show that the time-averaged spatial distribution of snow water equivalent and the amplitude of its annual cycle are reproduced quite differently by the different remote sensing and reanalysis data sets, which in fact exhibit a large spread around the ensemble mean. We find that GCMs at spatial resolutions equal to or finer than 1.25° longitude are in closer agreement with the ensemble mean of satellite and reanalysis products in terms of root mean square error and standard deviation than lower-resolution GCMs. The set of regional climate models from the EURO-CORDEX ensemble provides estimates of snow water equivalent at 0.11° resolution that are locally much larger than those indicated by the gridded data sets, and only in a few cases are these differences smoothed out when snow water equivalent is spatially averaged over the entire Alpine domain. ERA-Interim-driven RCM simulations show an annual snow cycle that is comparable in amplitude to those provided by the reference data sets, while GCM-driven RCMs present a large positive bias. RCMs and higher-resolution GCM simulations are used to provide an estimate of the snow reduction expected by the mid-21st century (RCP 8.5 scenario) compared to the historical climatology, with the main purpose of highlighting the limits of our current knowledge and the need for developing more reliable snow simulations.

Absolute Geostrophic Velocity Inverted from World Ocean Atlas 2013 (WOAV13) with the P-Vector Method

DTIC Science & Technology

2015-11-01

The WOAV13 dataset comprises 3D global gridded climatological fields of absolute geostrophic velocity inverted...from World Ocean Atlas-2013 (WOA13) temperature and salinity fields using the P-vector method. It provides a climatological velocity field that is... climatology Dataset Identifier: gov.noaa.nodc:0121576 Creator: NOAP Lab, Department of Oceanography, Naval Postgraduate School, Monterey, CA Title

Effects of clouds on the Earth radiation budget; Seasonal and inter-annual patterns

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Dhuria, Harbans L.

1992-01-01

Seasonal and regional variations of clouds and their effects on the climatological parameters were studied. The climatological parameters surface temperature, solar insulation, short-wave absorbed, long wave emitted, and net radiation were considered. The data of climatological parameters consisted of about 20 parameters of Earth radiation budget and clouds of 2070 target areas which covered the globe. It consisted of daily and monthly averages of each parameter for each target area for the period, Jun. 1979 - May 1980. Cloud forcing and black body temperature at the top of the atmosphere were calculated. Interactions of clouds, cloud forcing, black body temperature, and the climatological parameters were investigated and analyzed.

Hydrological changes in the Amur river basin: two approaches for assignment of climate projections into hydrological model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gelfan, Alexander; Kalugin, Andrei; Motovilov, Yury

2017-04-01

A regional hydrological model was setup to assess possible impact of climate change on the hydrological regime of the Amur drainage basin (the catchment area is 1 855 000 km2). The model is based on the ECOMAG hydrological modeling platform and describes spatially distributed processes of water cycle in this great basin with account for flow regulation by the Russian and Chinese reservoirs. Earlier, the regional hydrological model was intensively evaluated against 20-year streamflow data over the whole Amur basin and, being driven by 252-station meteorological observations as input data, demonstrated good performance. In this study, we firstly assessed the reliability of the model to reproduce the historical streamflow series when Global Climate Model (GCM) simulation data are used as input into the hydrological model. Data of nine GCMs involved in CMIP5 project was utilized and we found that ensemble mean of annual flow is close to the observed flow (error is about 14%) while data of separate GCMs may result in much larger errors. Reproduction of seasonal flow for the historical period turned out weaker; first of all because of large errors in simulated seasonal precipitation, so hydrological consequences of climate change were estimated just in terms of annual flow. We analyzed the hydrological projections from the climate change scenarios. The impacts were assessed in four 20-year periods: early- (2020-2039), mid- (2040-2059) and two end-century (2060-2079; 2080-2099) periods using an ensemble of nine GCMs and four Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) scenarios. Mean annual runoff anomalies calculated as percentages of the future runoff (simulated under 36 GCM-RCP combinations of climate scenarios) to the historical runoff (simulated under the corresponding GCM outputs for the reference 1986-2005 period) were estimated. Hydrological model gave small negative runoff anomalies for almost all GCM-RCP combinations of climate scenarios and for all 20-year periods. The largest ensemble mean anomaly was about minus 8% by the end of XXI century under the most severe RCP8.5 scenario. We compared the mean annual runoff anomalies projected under the GCM-based data for the XXI century with the corresponding anomalies projected under a modified observed climatology using the delta-change (DC) method. Use of the modified observed records as driving forces for hydrological model-based projections can be considered as an alternative to the GCM-based scenarios if the latter are uncertain. The main advantage of the DC approach is its simplicity: in its simplest version only differences between present and future climates (i.e. between the long-term means of the climatic variables) are considered as DC-factors. In this study, the DC-factors for the reference meteorological series (1986-2005) of climate parameters were calculated from the GCM-based scenarios. The modified historical data were used as input into the hydrological models. For each of four 20-year period, runoff anomalies simulated under the delta-changed historical time series were compared with runoff anomalies simulated under the corresponding GCM-data with the same mean. We found that the compared projections are closely correlated. Thus, for the Amur basin, the modified observed climatology can be used as driving force for hydrological model-based projections and considered as an alternative to the GCM-based scenarios if only annual flow projections are of the interest.

Eight Year Climatologies from Observational (AIRS) and Model (MERRA) Data

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hearty, Thomas; Savtchenko, Andrey; Won, Young-In; Theobalk, Mike; Vollmer, Bruce; Manning, Evan; Smith, Peter; Ostrenga, Dana; Leptoukh, Greg

2010-01-01

We examine climatologies derived from eight years of temperature, water vapor, cloud, and trace gas observations made by the Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS) instrument flying on the Aqua satellite and compare them to similar climatologies constructed with data from a global assimilation model, the Modern Era Retrospective-Analysis for Research and Applications (MERRA). We use the AIRS climatologies to examine anomalies and trends in the AIRS data record. Since sampling can be an issue for infrared satellites in low earth orbit, we also use the MERRA data to examine the AIRS sampling biases. By sampling the MERRA data at the AIRS space-time locations both with and without the AIRS quality control we estimate the sampling bias of the AIRS climatology and the atmospheric conditions where AIRS has a lower sampling rate. While the AIRS temperature and water vapor sampling biases are small at low latitudes, they can be more than a few degrees in temperature or 10 percent in water vapor at higher latitudes. The largest sampling biases are over desert. The AIRS and MERRA data are available from the Goddard Earth Sciences Data and Information Services Center (GES DISC). The AIRS climatologies we used are available for analysis with the GIOVANNI data exploration tool. (see, http://disc.gsfc.nasa.gov).

STSHV a teleinformatic system for historic seismology in Venezuela

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Choy, J. E.; Palme, C.; Altez, R.; Aranguren, R.; Guada, C.; Silva, J.

2013-05-01

From 1997 on, when the first "Jornadas Venezolanas de Sismicidad Historica" took place, a big interest awoke in Venezuela to organize the available information related to historic earthquakes. At that moment only existed one published historic earthquake catalogue, that from Centeno Grau published the first time in 1949. That catalogue had no references about the sources of information. Other catalogues existed but they were internal reports for the petroleum companies and therefore difficult to access. In 2000 Grases et al reedited the Centeno-Grau catalogue, it ended up in a new, very complete catalogue with all the sources well referenced and updated. The next step to organize historic seismicity data was, from 2004 to 2008, the creation of the STSHV (Sistema de teleinformacion de Sismologia Historica Venezolana, http://sismicidad.hacer.ula.ve ). The idea was to bring together all information about destructive historic earthquakes in Venezuela in one place in the internet so it could be accessed easily by a widespread public. There are two ways to access the system. The first one, selecting an earthquake or a list of earthquakes, and the second one, selecting an information source or a list of sources. For each earthquake there is a summary of general information and additional materials: a list with the source parameters published by different authors, a list with intensities assessed by different authors, a list of information sources, a short text summarizing the historic situation at the time of the earthquake and a list of pictures if available. There are searching facilities for the seismic events and dynamic maps can be created. The information sources are classified in: books, handwritten documents, transcription of handwritten documents, documents published in books, journals and congress memories, newspapers, seismologic catalogues and electronic sources. There are facilities to find specific documents or lists of documents with common characteristics. For each document general information is displayed together with an extract of the information relating to the earthquake. If the complete document was available and no problem with the publishers rights a pdf copy of the document was included. We found this system extremely useful for studying historic earthquakes, as one can access immediately previous research works about an earthquake and it allows to check easily the historic information and so to validate the intensity data. So far, the intensity data have not been completed for earthquakes after 2000. This information would be important for improving calibration of intensity - magnitude calibrations of historic events, and is a work in progress. On the other hand, it is important to mention that "El Catálogo Sismológico Venezolano del siglo XX" (The Seismological Venezuelan Catalog), published in 2012, updates seismic information up to 2007, and that the STSHV was one of its primary sources of information.

A global satellite assisted precipitation climatology

USGS Publications Warehouse

Funk, Christopher C.; Verdin, Andrew P.; Michaelsen, Joel C.; Pedreros, Diego; Husak, Gregory J.; Peterson, P.

2015-01-01

Accurate representations of mean climate conditions, especially in areas of complex terrain, are an important part of environmental monitoring systems. As high-resolution satellite monitoring information accumulates with the passage of time, it can be increasingly useful in efforts to better characterize the earth's mean climatology. Current state-of-the-science products rely on complex and sometimes unreliable relationships between elevation and station-based precipitation records, which can result in poor performance in food and water insecure regions with sparse observation networks. These vulnerable areas (like Ethiopia, Afghanistan, or Haiti) are often the critical regions for humanitarian drought monitoring. Here, we show that long period of record geo-synchronous and polar-orbiting satellite observations provide a unique new resource for producing high resolution (0.05°) global precipitation climatologies that perform reasonably well in data sparse regions. Traditionally, global climatologies have been produced by combining station observations and physiographic predictors like latitude, longitude, elevation, and slope. While such approaches can work well, especially in areas with reasonably dense observation networks, the fundamental relationship between physiographic variables and the target climate variables can often be indirect and spatially complex. Infrared and microwave satellite observations, on the other hand, directly monitor the earth's energy emissions. These emissions often correspond physically with the location and intensity of precipitation. We show that these relationships provide a good basis for building global climatologies. We also introduce a new geospatial modeling approach based on moving window regressions and inverse distance weighting interpolation. This approach combines satellite fields, gridded physiographic indicators, and in situ climate normals. The resulting global 0.05° monthly precipitation climatology, the Climate Hazards Group's Precipitation Climatology version 1 (CHPclim v.1.0,http://dx.doi.org/10.15780/G2159X), is shown to compare favorably with similar global climatology products, especially in areas with complex terrain and low station densities.

A global satellite-assisted precipitation climatology

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Funk, C.; Verdin, A.; Michaelsen, J.; Peterson, P.; Pedreros, D.; Husak, G.

2015-10-01

Accurate representations of mean climate conditions, especially in areas of complex terrain, are an important part of environmental monitoring systems. As high-resolution satellite monitoring information accumulates with the passage of time, it can be increasingly useful in efforts to better characterize the earth's mean climatology. Current state-of-the-science products rely on complex and sometimes unreliable relationships between elevation and station-based precipitation records, which can result in poor performance in food and water insecure regions with sparse observation networks. These vulnerable areas (like Ethiopia, Afghanistan, or Haiti) are often the critical regions for humanitarian drought monitoring. Here, we show that long period of record geo-synchronous and polar-orbiting satellite observations provide a unique new resource for producing high-resolution (0.05°) global precipitation climatologies that perform reasonably well in data-sparse regions. Traditionally, global climatologies have been produced by combining station observations and physiographic predictors like latitude, longitude, elevation, and slope. While such approaches can work well, especially in areas with reasonably dense observation networks, the fundamental relationship between physiographic variables and the target climate variables can often be indirect and spatially complex. Infrared and microwave satellite observations, on the other hand, directly monitor the earth's energy emissions. These emissions often correspond physically with the location and intensity of precipitation. We show that these relationships provide a good basis for building global climatologies. We also introduce a new geospatial modeling approach based on moving window regressions and inverse distance weighting interpolation. This approach combines satellite fields, gridded physiographic indicators, and in situ climate normals. The resulting global 0.05° monthly precipitation climatology, the Climate Hazards Group's Precipitation Climatology version 1 (CHPclim v.1.0, doi:10.15780/G2159X), is shown to compare favorably with similar global climatology products, especially in areas with complex terrain and low station densities.

Preparing School Social Work for the Future: An Update of School Social Workers' Tasks in Iowa

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Peckover, Christopher A.; Vasquez, Matthew L.; Van Housen, Stephanie L.; Saunders, Jeanne A.; Allen, Larry

2013-01-01

The authors begin this article by highlighting clinical social casework as a historic trend in school social work practice. They then identify two major shifts in current education policy related to school social work practice. One shift is an emphasis on a multilevel intervention approach, and the other is the differentiation between academic and…

Perspectives on the Explorations of Deepening Understanding of Teaching through Oral History: A Returning Teacher's Perspective.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Eldred, Rosemary

This paper describes how one teacher educator returned to the middle school classroom. In order to update her skills and knowledge, the author worked on a master's degree. One course that she took was in oral history interviewing. She had often used historical letters and journals with students to explore individual descriptions of history, but…

New Methodology for Natural Gas Production Estimates

EIA Publications

2010-01-01

A new methodology is implemented with the monthly natural gas production estimates from the EIA-914 survey this month. The estimates, to be released April 29, 2010, include revisions for all of 2009. The fundamental changes in the new process include the timeliness of the historical data used for estimation and the frequency of sample updates, both of which are improved.

Historical Perspective and Current Status of the Physical Education Graduation Requirement at American 4-Year Colleges and Universities

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Cardinal, Bradley J.; Sorensen, Spencer D.; Cardinal, Marita K.

2012-01-01

This study gives an overview of the history of required physical education in America's 4-year colleges and universities and provides an update on the requirement status. After randomly identifying 354 institutions, we searched their respective websites to determine whether physical education was a requirement to earn a baccalaureate degree. The…

Abuse and Neglect of Children and Disabled Adults: North Carolina's Mandatory Reporting Laws and 1985-86 Update.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Mason, Janet

The booklet explains requirements for reporting abuse or neglect of children and disabled adults contained in the North Carolina Juvenile Code and the Protection of the Abused, Neglected or Exploited Disabled Adult Act. Following a brief historical review, the text discusses who must report abuse and neglect, what acts or conditions must be…

77 FR 38078 - U.S. Nominations to the World Heritage List: San Antonio Franciscan Missions

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2012-06-26

... (NPS) are authorized by Title IV of the Historic Preservation Act Amendments of 1980 and conducted in..., Scientific and Cultural Organization) to develop a process to revise the tentative list by 2016. A discussion... completing the update in 2016, the year of the centennial of the National Park Service. Next Steps in the...

Historical (1750–2014) anthropogenic emissions of reactive gases and aerosols from the Community Emissions Data System (CEDS)

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Hoesly, Rachel M.; Smith, Steven J.; Feng, Leyang

Here, we present a new data set of annual historical (1750–2014) anthropogenic chemically reactive gases (CO, CH 4, NH 3, NO x, SO 2, NMVOCs), carbonaceous aerosols (black carbon – BC, and organic carbon – OC), and CO 2 developed with the Community Emissions Data System (CEDS). We improve upon existing inventories with a more consistent and reproducible methodology applied to all emission species, updated emission factors, and recent estimates through 2014. The data system relies on existing energy consumption data sets and regional and country-specific inventories to produce trends over recent decades. All emission species are consistently estimated using the samemore » activity data over all time periods. Emissions are provided on an annual basis at the level of country and sector and gridded with monthly seasonality. These estimates are comparable to, but generally slightly higher than, existing global inventories. Emissions over the most recent years are more uncertain, particularly in low- and middle-income regions where country-specific emission inventories are less available. Future work will involve refining and updating these emission estimates, estimating emissions' uncertainty, and publication of the system as open-source software.« less

Historical (1750–2014) anthropogenic emissions of reactive gases and aerosols from the Community Emissions Data System (CEDS)

DOE PAGES

Hoesly, Rachel M.; Smith, Steven J.; Feng, Leyang; ...

2018-01-29

Here, we present a new data set of annual historical (1750–2014) anthropogenic chemically reactive gases (CO, CH 4, NH 3, NO x, SO 2, NMVOCs), carbonaceous aerosols (black carbon – BC, and organic carbon – OC), and CO 2 developed with the Community Emissions Data System (CEDS). We improve upon existing inventories with a more consistent and reproducible methodology applied to all emission species, updated emission factors, and recent estimates through 2014. The data system relies on existing energy consumption data sets and regional and country-specific inventories to produce trends over recent decades. All emission species are consistently estimated using the samemore » activity data over all time periods. Emissions are provided on an annual basis at the level of country and sector and gridded with monthly seasonality. These estimates are comparable to, but generally slightly higher than, existing global inventories. Emissions over the most recent years are more uncertain, particularly in low- and middle-income regions where country-specific emission inventories are less available. Future work will involve refining and updating these emission estimates, estimating emissions' uncertainty, and publication of the system as open-source software.« less

Historical (1750-2014) anthropogenic emissions of reactive gases and aerosols from the Community Emissions Data System (CEDS)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hoesly, Rachel M.; Smith, Steven J.; Feng, Leyang; Klimont, Zbigniew; Janssens-Maenhout, Greet; Pitkanen, Tyler; Seibert, Jonathan J.; Vu, Linh; Andres, Robert J.; Bolt, Ryan M.; Bond, Tami C.; Dawidowski, Laura; Kholod, Nazar; Kurokawa, June-ichi; Li, Meng; Liu, Liang; Lu, Zifeng; Moura, Maria Cecilia P.; O'Rourke, Patrick R.; Zhang, Qiang

2018-01-01

We present a new data set of annual historical (1750-2014) anthropogenic chemically reactive gases (CO, CH4, NH3, NOx, SO2, NMVOCs), carbonaceous aerosols (black carbon - BC, and organic carbon - OC), and CO2 developed with the Community Emissions Data System (CEDS). We improve upon existing inventories with a more consistent and reproducible methodology applied to all emission species, updated emission factors, and recent estimates through 2014. The data system relies on existing energy consumption data sets and regional and country-specific inventories to produce trends over recent decades. All emission species are consistently estimated using the same activity data over all time periods. Emissions are provided on an annual basis at the level of country and sector and gridded with monthly seasonality. These estimates are comparable to, but generally slightly higher than, existing global inventories. Emissions over the most recent years are more uncertain, particularly in low- and middle-income regions where country-specific emission inventories are less available. Future work will involve refining and updating these emission estimates, estimating emissions' uncertainty, and publication of the system as open-source software.

A description of the catalog division project at the College of Physicians of Philadelphia Library.

PubMed Central

Caspari, S B; Batty, E L

1975-01-01

This paper describes the procedures used at the Library of the College of Physicians of Philadelphia to divide its ninety-year-old dictionary card catalog. The division was necessitated by overcrowding, obsolete subject headings, and lack of a complete authority list which resulted in like materials being scattered throughout the catalog under several headings. Two catalogs were created: the historical-biographical catalog, representing all works published before 1950 and all works of historical or biographical nature; and the current catalog, containing all works published from 1950 on, excepting historical or biographical materials. The 1950- catalog was further divided into name and subject catalogs, and the subject section was revised according to MeSH. The project was completed in about two years. As a result, searching time has been much reduced, and the library is able to take advantage of the annual revisions of MeSH to update the subject catalog. PMID:1173786

Solar System Exploration Augmented by In-Situ Resource Utilization: Human Mercury and Saturn Exploration

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Palaszewski, Bryan

2015-01-01

Human and robotic missions to Mercury and Saturn are presented and analyzed. Unique elements of the local planetary environments are discussed and included in the analyses and assessments. Using historical studies of space exploration, in-situ resource utilization (ISRU), and industrialization all point to the vastness of natural resources in the solar system. Advanced propulsion benefitted from these resources in many way. While advanced propulsion systems were proposed in these historical studies, further investigation of nuclear options using high power nuclear thermal and nuclear pulse propulsion as well as advanced chemical propulsion can significantly enhance these scenarios. Updated analyses based on these historical visions will be presented. Nuclear thermal propulsion and ISRU enhanced chemical propulsion landers are assessed for Mercury missions. At Saturn, nuclear pulse propulsion with alternate propellant feed systems and Titan exploration with chemical propulsion options are discussed.

Analysis and selection of magnitude relations for the Working Group on Utah Earthquake Probabilities

USGS Publications Warehouse

Duross, Christopher; Olig, Susan; Schwartz, David

2015-01-01

Prior to calculating time-independent and -dependent earthquake probabilities for faults in the Wasatch Front region, the Working Group on Utah Earthquake Probabilities (WGUEP) updated a seismic-source model for the region (Wong and others, 2014) and evaluated 19 historical regressions on earthquake magnitude (M). These regressions relate M to fault parameters for historical surface-faulting earthquakes, including linear fault length (e.g., surface-rupture length [SRL] or segment length), average displacement, maximum displacement, rupture area, seismic moment (Mo ), and slip rate. These regressions show that significant epistemic uncertainties complicate the determination of characteristic magnitude for fault sources in the Basin and Range Province (BRP). For example, we found that M estimates (as a function of SRL) span about 0.3–0.4 units (figure 1) owing to differences in the fault parameter used; age, quality, and size of historical earthquake databases; and fault type and region considered.

Spatial differences in drought vulnerability

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Perčec Tadić, M.; Cindić, K.; Gajić-Čapka, M.; Zaninović, K.

2012-04-01

Drought causes the highest economic losses among all hydro-meteorological events in Croatia. It is the most frequent hazard, which produces the highest damages in the agricultural sector. The climate assessment in Croatia according to the aridity index (defined as the ratio of precipitation and potential evapotranspiration) shows that the susceptibility to desertification is present in the warm part of the year and it is mostly pronounced in the Adriatic region and the eastern Croatia lowland. The evidence of more frequent extreme drought events in the last decade is apparent. These facts were motivation to study the drought risk assessment in Croatia. One step in this issue is the construction of the vulnerability map. This map is a complex combination of the geomorphologic and climatological inputs (maps) that are presumed to be natural factors which modify the amount of moisture in the soil. In this study, the first version of the vulnerability map is followed by the updated one that additionally includes the soil types and the land use classes. The first input considered is the geomorphologic slope angle calculated from the digital elevation model (DEM). The SRTM DEM of 100 m resolution is used. The steeper slopes are more likely to lose water and to become dryer. The second climatological parameter, the solar irradiation map, gives for the territory of Croatia the maximum irradiation on the coast. The next meteorological parameter that influences the drought vulnerability is precipitation which is in this assessment included through the precipitation variability expressed by the coefficient of variation. Larger precipitation variability is related with the higher drought vulnerability. The preliminary results for Croatia, according to the recommended procedure in the framework of Drought Management Centre for Southeastern Europe (DMCSEE project), show the most sensitive areas to drought in the southern Adriatic coast and eastern continental lowland.

Climatology of GPS signal loss observed by Swarm satellites

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Xiong, Chao; Stolle, Claudia; Park, Jaeheung

2018-04-01

By using 3-year global positioning system (GPS) measurements from December 2013 to November 2016, we provide in this study a detailed survey on the climatology of the GPS signal loss of Swarm onboard receivers. Our results show that the GPS signal losses prefer to occur at both low latitudes between ±5 and ±20° magnetic latitude (MLAT) and high latitudes above 60° MLAT in both hemispheres. These events at all latitudes are observed mainly during equinoxes and December solstice months, while totally absent during June solstice months. At low latitudes the GPS signal losses are caused by the equatorial plasma irregularities shortly after sunset, and at high latitude they are also highly related to the large density gradients associated with ionospheric irregularities. Additionally, the high-latitude events are more often observed in the Southern Hemisphere, occurring mainly at the cusp region and along nightside auroral latitudes. The signal losses mainly happen for those GPS rays with elevation angles less than 20°, and more commonly occur when the line of sight between GPS and Swarm satellites is aligned with the shell structure of plasma irregularities. Our results also confirm that the capability of the Swarm receiver has been improved after the bandwidth of the phase-locked loop (PLL) widened, but the updates cannot radically avoid the interruption in tracking GPS satellites caused by the ionospheric plasma irregularities. Additionally, after the PLL bandwidth increased larger than 0.5 Hz, some unexpected signal losses are observed even at middle latitudes, which are not related to the ionospheric plasma irregularities. Our results suggest that rather than 1.0 Hz, a PLL bandwidth of 0.5 Hz is a more suitable value for the Swarm receiver.

A Historical Overview of the Classification, Evolution, and Dispersion of Leishmania Parasites and Sandflies

PubMed Central

Akhoundi, Mohammad; Kuhls, Katrin; Cannet, Arnaud; Votýpka, Jan; Marty, Pierre; Delaunay, Pascal; Sereno, Denis

2016-01-01

Background The aim of this study is to describe the major evolutionary historical events among Leishmania, sandflies, and the associated animal reservoirs in detail, in accordance with the geographical evolution of the Earth, which has not been previously discussed on a large scale. Methodology and Principal Findings Leishmania and sandfly classification has always been a controversial matter, and the increasing number of species currently described further complicates this issue. Despite several hypotheses on the origin, evolution, and distribution of Leishmania and sandflies in the Old and New World, no consistent agreement exists regarding dissemination of the actors that play roles in leishmaniasis. For this purpose, we present here three centuries of research on sandflies and Leishmania descriptions, as well as a complete description of Leishmania and sandfly fossils and the emergence date of each Leishmania and sandfly group during different geographical periods, from 550 million years ago until now. We discuss critically the different approaches that were used for Leishmana and sandfly classification and their synonymies, proposing an updated classification for each species of Leishmania and sandfly. We update information on the current distribution and dispersion of different species of Leishmania (53), sandflies (more than 800 at genus or subgenus level), and animal reservoirs in each of the following geographical ecozones: Palearctic, Nearctic, Neotropic, Afrotropical, Oriental, Malagasy, and Australian. We propose an updated list of the potential and proven sandfly vectors for each Leishmania species in the Old and New World. Finally, we address a classical question about digenetic Leishmania evolution: which was the first host, a vertebrate or an invertebrate? Conclusions and Significance We propose an updated view of events that have played important roles in the geographical dispersion of sandflies, in relation to both the Leishmania species they transmit and the animal reservoirs of the parasites. PMID:26937644

Updated Palaeotsunami Database for Aotearoa/New Zealand

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gadsby, M. R.; Goff, J. R.; King, D. N.; Robbins, J.; Duesing, U.; Franz, T.; Borrero, J. C.; Watkins, A.

2016-12-01

The updated configuration, design, and implementation of a national palaeotsunami (pre-historic tsunami) database for Aotearoa/New Zealand (A/NZ) is near completion. This tool enables correlation of events along different stretches of the NZ coastline, provides information on frequency and extent of local, regional and distant-source tsunamis, and delivers detailed information on the science and proxies used to identify the deposits. In A/NZ a plethora of data, scientific research and experience surrounds palaeotsunami deposits, but much of this information has been difficult to locate, has variable reporting standards, and lacked quality assurance. The original database was created by Professor James Goff while working at the National Institute of Water & Atmospheric Research in A/NZ, but has subsequently been updated during his tenure at the University of New South Wales. The updating and establishment of the national database was funded by the Ministry of Civil Defence and Emergency Management (MCDEM), led by Environment Canterbury Regional Council, and supported by all 16 regions of A/NZ's local government. Creation of a single database has consolidated a wide range of published and unpublished research contributions from many science providers on palaeotsunamis in A/NZ. The information is now easily accessible and quality assured and allows examination of frequency, extent and correlation of events. This provides authoritative scientific support for coastal-marine planning and risk management. The database will complement the GNS New Zealand Historical Database, and contributes to a heightened public awareness of tsunami by being a "one-stop-shop" for information on past tsunami impacts. There is scope for this to become an international database, enabling the pacific-wide correlation of large events, as well as identifying smaller regional ones. The Australian research community has already expressed an interest, and the database is also compatible with a similar one currently under development in Japan. Expressions of interest in collaborating with the A/NZ team to expand the database are invited from other Pacific nations.

Evaluating MJO Event Initiation and Decay in the Skeleton Model using an RMM-like Index

DTIC Science & Technology

2015-11-25

climatology and document 35 the occurrence of primary, continuing, and terminating MJO events in the skeleton model. The 36 overall amount of MJO...solutions in a framework consistent with observations including MJO event 104 climatology and the precursor conditions associated with the initiation and...the 112 7 model along with several applications that include a comparison to the observed MJO event 113 climatology and identification of

SWIFT Observations in the Arctic Sea State DRI

DTIC Science & Technology

2015-09-30

to understand the role of waves and sea state in the Arctic Ocean, such that forecast models are improved and a robust climatology is defined...OBJECTIVES The objectives are to: develop a sea state climatology for the Arctic Ocean, improve wave forecasting in the presence of sea ice, improve...experiment, coordination of remote sensing products, and analysis of climatology . A detailed cruise plan has been written, including a table of the remote

Assessing Evaporation Duct Variability In The Eastern Mediterranean Sea In Support Of Radar And Radio Communications

DTIC Science & Technology

2016-12-01

and spatial variations of EDH and EDS are analyzed to provide an evaporation ducting climatology for the Eastern Mediterranean Sea. The sensitivity...are analyzed to provide an evaporation ducting climatology for the Eastern Mediterranean Sea. The sensitivity of EDH and EDS to certain atmospheric...studies were conducted by K. Raptis (2012) and S. Turk (2010). Raptis (2012) examined “ climatological factors affecting EM surface ducting in the

The Derivation Of A CO2 Fugacity Climatology From SOCAT's Global In SITU Data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Goddijn-Murphy, L. M.; Woolf, D. K.; Land, P. E.; Shutler, J. D.

2013-12-01

The Surface Ocean CO2 Atlas (SOCAT) has made millions of global underway sea surface measurements of CO2 publicly available, all in a uniform format and presented as fugacity, fCO2. However, these fCO2 values are valid strictly only for the instantaneous temperature at measurement and are not ideal for climatology. We recomputed these fCO2 values for the measurement month to be applicable to climatological sea surface temperatures, extrapolated to reference year 2010. The data were then spatially interpolated on a 1°×1° grid of the global oceans to produce 12 monthly fCO2 distributions. Our climatology data will be shared with the science community.

High-end climate change impact on European runoff and low flows – exploring the effects of forcing biases

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Papadimitriou, Lamprini V.; Koutroulis, Aristeidis G.; Grillakis, Manolis G.

Climate models project a much more substantial warming than the 2 °C target under the more probable emission scenarios, making higher-end scenarios increasingly plausible. Freshwater availability under such conditions is a key issue of concern. In this study, an ensemble of Euro-CORDEX projections under RCP8.5 is used to assess the mean and low hydrological states under +4 °C of global warming for the European region. Five major European catchments were analysed in terms of future drought climatology and the impact of +2 °C versus +4 °C global warming was investigated. The effect of bias correction of the climate model outputsmore » and the observations used for this adjustment was also quantified. Projections indicate an intensification of the water cycle at higher levels of warming. Even for areas where the average state may not considerably be affected, low flows are expected to reduce, leading to changes in the number of dry days and thus drought climatology. The identified increasing or decreasing runoff trends are substantially intensified when moving from the +2 to the +4° of global warming. Bias correction resulted in an improved representation of the historical hydrology. Moreover, it is also found that the selection of the observational data set for the application of the bias correction has an impact on the projected signal that could be of the same order of magnitude to the selection of the Global Climate Model (GCM).« less

Testing sequential extraction methods for the analysis of multiple stable isotope systems from a bone sample

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sahlstedt, Elina; Arppe, Laura

2017-04-01

Stable isotope composition of bones, analysed either from the mineral phase (hydroxyapatite) or from the organic phase (mainly collagen) carry important climatological and ecological information and are therefore widely used in paleontological and archaeological research. For the analysis of the stable isotope compositions, both of the phases, hydroxyapatite and collagen, have their more or less well established separation and analytical techniques. Recent development in IRMS and wet chemical extraction methods have facilitated the analysis of very small bone fractions (500 μg or less starting material) for PO43-O isotope composition. However, the uniqueness and (pre-) historical value of each archaeological and paleontological finding lead to preciously little material available for stable isotope analyses, encouraging further development of microanalytical methods for the use of stable isotope analyses. Here we present the first results in developing extraction methods for combining collagen C- and N-isotope analyses to PO43-O-isotope analyses from a single bone sample fraction. We tested sequential extraction starting with dilute acid demineralization and collection of both collagen and PO43-fractions, followed by further purification step by H2O2 (PO43-fraction). First results show that bone sample separates as small as 2 mg may be analysed for their δ15N, δ13C and δ18OPO4 values. The method may be incorporated in detailed investigation of sequentially developing skeletal material such as teeth, potentially allowing for the investigation of interannual variability in climatological/environmental signals or investigation of the early life history of an individual.

Collaborative Education in Climate Change Sciences and Adaptation through Interactive Learning

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ozbay, G.; Sriharan, S.; Fan, C.

2014-12-01

As a result of several funded climate change education grants, collaboration between VSU, DSU, and MSU, was established to provide the innovative and cohesive education and research opportunities to underrepresented groups in the climate related sciences. Prior to offering climate change and adaptation related topics to the students, faculty members of the three collaborating institutions participated at a number of faculty training and preparation workshops for teaching climate change sciences (i.e. AMS Diversity Project Workshop, NCAR Faculty-Student Team on Climate Change, NASA-NICE Program). In order to enhance the teaching and student learning on various issues in the Environmental Sciences Programs, Climatology, Climate Change Sciences and Adaptation or related courses were developed at Delaware State University and its partner institutions (Virginia State University and Morgan State University). These courses were prepared to deliver information on physical basis for the earth's climate system and current climate change instruction modules by AMS and historic climate information (NOAA Climate Services, U.S. and World Weather Data, NCAR and NASA Climate Models). By using Global Seminar as a Model, faculty members worked in teams to engage students in videoconferencing on climate change through Contemporary Global Studies and climate courses including Climate Change and Adaptation Science, Sustainable Agriculture, Introduction to Environmental Sciences, Climatology, and Ecology and Adaptation courses. All climate change courses have extensive hands-on practices and research integrated into the student learning experiences. Some of these students have presented their classroom projects during Earth Day, Student Climate Change Symposium, Undergraduate Summer Symposium, and other national conferences.

A climatology of extreme wave height events impacting eastern Lake Ontario shorelines

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Grieco, Matthew B.; DeGaetano, Arthur T.

2018-05-01

Model-derived wave height data for points along the eastern Lake Ontario shoreline provide the basis for a 36-year climatology of extreme wave heights. The most extreme wave heights exceed 6 m at all locations, except for those along the extreme northeastern shoreline of the Lake. Typically extreme wave events are a regional phenomenon, affecting multiple locations along the eastern and southeastern shoreline. A pronounced seasonal cycle in wave event occurrence is characterized by peaks in autumn and spring, with an absence of 99.9th percentile wave heights during summer. Less extreme (90th percentile heights) occur in all months with a peak in winter. Extreme wave events are most often associated with a low pressure center tracking to the north of Lake Ontario from the Ohio Valley. This track produces the strong winds > 10 ms-1 and predominantly west-to-east wind fetch that characterize high wave height events. The seasonal frequency of the wave events exceeding the historical 95th percentile has shown a statistically significant increase at most locations since 1979. This has been partially offset by declines in the frequency of events with wave heights between the 90 and 95th percentile. Seasonal extreme wave height frequency is also found to be related to the occurrence of El Niño. During El Niño winters, there are significantly fewer events with wave heights exceeding 2.5 m than would be expected by chance. A corresponding relationship to La Niña occurrence is not evident.

High-end climate change impact on European runoff and low flows – exploring the effects of forcing biases

DOE PAGES

Papadimitriou, Lamprini V.; Koutroulis, Aristeidis G.; Grillakis, Manolis G.; ...

2016-05-10

Climate models project a much more substantial warming than the 2 °C target under the more probable emission scenarios, making higher-end scenarios increasingly plausible. Freshwater availability under such conditions is a key issue of concern. In this study, an ensemble of Euro-CORDEX projections under RCP8.5 is used to assess the mean and low hydrological states under +4 °C of global warming for the European region. Five major European catchments were analysed in terms of future drought climatology and the impact of +2 °C versus +4 °C global warming was investigated. The effect of bias correction of the climate model outputsmore » and the observations used for this adjustment was also quantified. Projections indicate an intensification of the water cycle at higher levels of warming. Even for areas where the average state may not considerably be affected, low flows are expected to reduce, leading to changes in the number of dry days and thus drought climatology. The identified increasing or decreasing runoff trends are substantially intensified when moving from the +2 to the +4° of global warming. Bias correction resulted in an improved representation of the historical hydrology. Moreover, it is also found that the selection of the observational data set for the application of the bias correction has an impact on the projected signal that could be of the same order of magnitude to the selection of the Global Climate Model (GCM).« less

Hydrologic Response to Climatic and Vegetation Change in an Extreme Alpine Environment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Livneh, B.; Badger, A.; Molotch, N. P.; Bueno de Mesquita, C.; Suding, K.

2016-12-01

Mountain hydrology and ecology are uniquely sensitive to climate change. This presentation will examine how changes in climate have altered land cover and hydrology in the Green Lakes Valley, an alpine catchment for which approximately 80% of the annual precipitation ( 950 mm/yr) falls as snow. In these environments vegetation has two way interaction with hydrology: its distribution is driven by patterns of snowpack and water availability while it functions to modulate hydrologic responses by alterating land-atmosphere interaction. Long-term climate trends indicate warming, earlier snowmelt, and longer snow-free growing seasons. High-resolution aerial photography from 1972 and 2008 identified vegetation encroachment as shrubs and trees have increased in vigor and density in the tundra, while herbaceous tundra plants have colonized high-elevation bare ground. To understand modulations to physical hydrology from climate and biophysical responses, we apply a 20-m resolution fully-distributed hydrologic model. Through the use of observed meteorology (radiation, humidity, temperature and precipitation) an hourly climatology was created. Realizations from a stochastic ensemble of this climatology together with trends from long-term observations are used to characterize historical hydrologic response and project future changes. Through temperature and precipitation change experiments, alterations to the annual water cycle are presented—indicating the importance of annual snowpack evolution on both the surface and sub-surface hydrology, particularly through seasonal water storage. Probabilistic land cover change scenarios are developed that project how further vegetation encroachment modulates surface water fluxes and sediment yields. Lastly, the context of these results are compared with hydrometeorological research from other differing alpine and ecological regions.

James Webb Space Telescope Out of Chamber “A” on This Week @NASA – December 1, 2017

NASA Image and Video Library

2017-12-01

Our James Webb Space Telescope is now out of the historic Chamber A vacuum facility at our Johnson Space Center in Houston, after completing cryogenic testing designed to ensure the telescope works well in the cold, airless environment of space. Set to launch in 2019, Webb will study every phase in the history of our Universe, starting with the first luminous glows following the Big Bang. Also, NASA’s Next Mars Rover Mission, New Space Station Crew Trains for Launch, Update for Next SpaceX Launch to Space Station, Giant Black Hole Pair Photobombs Andromeda Galaxy, and Historic Apollo Mission Control Center Will Be Restored!

Lake Michigan Diversion Accounting land cover change estimation by use of the National Land Cover Dataset and raingage network partitioning analysis

USGS Publications Warehouse

Sharpe, Jennifer B.; Soong, David T.

2015-01-01

This study used the National Land Cover Dataset (NLCD) and developed an automated process for determining the area of the three land cover types, thereby allowing faster updating of future models, and for evaluating land cover changes by use of historical NLCD datasets. The study also carried out a raingage partitioning analysis so that the segmentation of land cover and rainfall in each modeled unit is directly applicable to the HSPF modeling. Historical and existing impervious, grass, and forest land acreages partitioned by percentages covered by two sets of raingages for the Lake Michigan diversion SCAs, gaged basins, and ungaged basins are presented.

The development and evaluation of a hydrological seasonal forecast system prototype for predicting spring flood volumes in Swedish rivers

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Foster, Kean; Bertacchi Uvo, Cintia; Olsson, Jonas

2018-05-01

Hydropower makes up nearly half of Sweden's electrical energy production. However, the distribution of the water resources is not aligned with demand, as most of the inflows to the reservoirs occur during the spring flood period. This means that carefully planned reservoir management is required to help redistribute water resources to ensure optimal production and accurate forecasts of the spring flood volume (SFV) is essential for this. The current operational SFV forecasts use a historical ensemble approach where the HBV model is forced with historical observations of precipitation and temperature. In this work we develop and test a multi-model prototype, building on previous work, and evaluate its ability to forecast the SFV in 84 sub-basins in northern Sweden. The hypothesis explored in this work is that a multi-model seasonal forecast system incorporating different modelling approaches is generally more skilful at forecasting the SFV in snow dominated regions than a forecast system that utilises only one approach. The testing is done using cross-validated hindcasts for the period 1981-2015 and the results are evaluated against both climatology and the current system to determine skill. Both the multi-model methods considered showed skill over the reference forecasts. The version that combined the historical modelling chain, dynamical modelling chain, and statistical modelling chain performed better than the other and was chosen for the prototype. The prototype was able to outperform the current operational system 57 % of the time on average and reduce the error in the SFV by ˜ 6 % across all sub-basins and forecast dates.

The impact of CO2 fertilization and historical land use/land cover change on regional climate extremes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Findell, Kirsten; Berg, Alexis; Gentine, Pierre; Krasting, John; Lintner, Benjamin; Malyshev, Sergey; Santanello, Joseph; Shevliakova, Elena

2017-04-01

Recent research highlights the role of land surface processes in heat waves, droughts, and other extreme events. Here we use an earth system model (ESM) from the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL) to investigate the regional impacts of historical anthropogenic land use/land cover change (LULCC) and the vegetative response to changes in atmospheric CO2 on combined extremes of temperature and humidity. A bivariate assessment allows us to consider aridity and moist enthalpy extremes, quantities central to human experience of near-surface climate conditions. We show that according to this model, conversion of forests to cropland has contributed to much of the upper central US and central Europe experiencing extreme hot, dry summers every 2-3 years instead of every 10 years. In the tropics, historical patterns of wood harvesting, shifting cultivation and regrowth of secondary vegetation have enhanced near surface moist enthalpy, leading to extensive increases in the occurrence of humid conditions throughout the tropics year round. These critical land use processes and practices are not included in many current generation land models, yet these results identify them as critical factors in the energy and water cycles of the midlatitudes and tropics. Current work is targeted at understanding how CO2 fertilization of plant growth impacts water use efficiency and surface flux partitioning, and how these changes influence temperature and humidity extremes. We use this modeling work to explore how remote sensing can be used to determine how different forest ecosystems in different climatological regimes are responding to enhanced CO2 and a warming world.

AASC Recommendations for the Education of an Applied Climatologist

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nielsen-Gammon, J. W.; Stooksbury, D.; Akyuz, A.; Dupigny-Giroux, L.; Hubbard, K. G.; Timofeyeva, M. M.

2011-12-01

The American Association of State Climatologists (AASC) has developed curricular recommendations for the education of future applied and service climatologists. The AASC was founded in 1976. Membership of the AASC includes state climatologists and others who work in state climate offices; climate researchers in academia and educators; applied climatologists in NOAA and other federal agencies; and the private sector. The AASC is the only professional organization dedicated solely to the growth and development of applied and service climatology. The purpose of the recommendations is to offer a framework for existing and developing academic climatology programs. These recommendations are intended to serve as a road map and to help distinguish the educational needs for future applied climatologists from those of operational meteorologists or other scientists and practitioners. While the home department of climatology students may differ from one program to the next, the most essential factor is that students can demonstrate a breadth and depth of understanding in the knowledge and tools needed to be an applied climatologist. Because the training of an applied climatologist requires significant depth and breadth, the Masters degree is recommended as the minimum level of education needed. This presentation will highlight the AASC recommendations. These include a strong foundation in: - climatology (instrumentation and data collection, climate dynamics, physical climatology, synoptic and regional climatology, applied climatology, climate models, etc.) - basic natural sciences and mathematics including calculus, physics, chemistry, and biology/ecology - fundamental atmospheric sciences (atmospheric dynamics, atmospheric thermodynamics, atmospheric radiation, and weather analysis/synoptic meteorology) and - data analysis and spatial analysis (descriptive statistics, statistical methods, multivariate statistics, geostatistics, GIS, etc.). The recommendations also include a secondary area of concentration (agriculture, economics, geography, hydrology, marine sciences, natural resources, policy, etc.) and a major applied climate research component.

Towards the use of HYCOM in Coupled ENSO Prediction: Assessment of ENSO Skill in Forced Global HYCOM

DTIC Science & Technology

2016-08-10

CICE spun-up state forced with climatological surface atmospheric fluxes. This run was initialized from Generalized Digital Environmental Model4...GDEM4) climatological temperature and salinity. It was configured with 41layers. 2. Global 0.72° HYCOM/CICE forced with NOGAPS for 2003-2012. The same...surface temperature, sea-ice concentration, and precipitation products. It was initialized from Levitus-PHC2 climatology . It was configured with 32 layers

A Global Solar Irradiance Climatology of an Intermountain Region.

DTIC Science & Technology

1986-01-01

D-A!171 97 A GLOBAL SOLAIR IRRRDIANCE CLIMATOLOGY OF AN INTERMOUNTAIN REGION(U) AIR FORCE INST OF TECH MRIGHT-PATTERSON APR ON E W DOBRY 1986...DD~ I JAN 73 1473 EDITION OF I NOV 65 IS OBSOLETE SECURITY CLASSIFICATION OF THIS PAGE Denfata E1ilered) %.ir.. , t . ~. ~ ~ ~ $~:V ( e vis ABSTRACT...Professor: Dr. G. E . Bingham De artment: Soil Science and Biometeorology A global solar irradiance climatology of an intermountain region is developed using

Constructing an AIRS Climatology for Data Visualization and Analysis to Serve the Climate Science and Application Communities

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Ding, Feng; Keim, Elaine; Hearty, Thomas J.; Wei, Jennifer; Savtchenko, Andrey; Theobald, Michael; Vollmer, Bruce

2016-01-01

The NASA Goddard Earth Sciences Data and Information Services Center (GES DISC) is the home of processing, archiving, and distribution services for NASA sounders: the present Aqua AIRS mission and the succeeding SNPP CrIS mission. The AIRS mission is entering its 15th year of global observations of the atmospheric state, including temperature and humidity profiles, outgoing longwave radiation, cloud properties, and trace gases. The GES DISC, in collaboration with the AIRS Project, released product from the version 6 algorithm in early 2013. Giovanni, a Web-based application developed by the GES DISC, provides a simple and intuitive way to visualize, analyze, and access vast amounts of Earth science remote sensing data without having to download the data. Most important variables from version 6 AIRS product are available in Giovanni. We are developing a climatology product using 14-year AIRS retrievals. The study can be a good start for the long term climatology from NASA sounders: the AIRS and the succeeding CrIS. This presentation will show the impacts to the climatology product from different aggregation methods. The climatology can serve climate science and application communities in data visualization and analysis, which will be demonstrated using a variety of functions in version 4 Giovanni. The highlights of these functions include user-defined monthly and seasonal climatology, inter annual seasonal time series, anomaly analysis.

Constructing an AIRS Climatology for Data Visualization and Analysis to Serve the Climate Science and Application Communities

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ding, F.; Keim, E.; Hearty, T. J., III; Wei, J. C.; Savtchenko, A.; Theobald, M.; Vollmer, B.

2016-12-01

The NASA Goddard Earth Sciences Data and Information Services Center (GES DISC) is the home of processing, archiving, and distribution services for NASA sounders: the present Aqua AIRS mission and the succeeding SNPP CrIS mission. The AIRS mission is entering its 15th year of global observations of the atmospheric state, including temperature and humidity profiles, outgoing longwave radiation, cloud properties, and trace gases. The GES DISC, in collaboration with the AIRS Project, released product from the version 6 algorithm in early 2013. Giovanni, a Web-based application developed by the GES DISC, provides a simple and intuitive way to visualize, analyze, and access vast amounts of Earth science remote sensing data without having to download the data. Most important variables from version 6 AIRS product are available in Giovanni. We are developing a climatology product using 14-year AIRS retrievals. The study can be a good start for the long term climatology from NASA sounders: the AIRS and the succeeding CrIS. This presentation will show the impacts to the climatology product from different aggregation methods. The climatology can serve climate science and application communities in data visualization and analysis, which will be demonstrated using a variety of functions in version 4 Giovanni. The highlights of these functions include user-defined monthly and seasonal climatology, inter annual seasonal time series, anomaly analysis.

General Climatology 3

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hartmann, Dennis L.

General Climatology 3 is volume 3 of the series World Survey of Climatology, which consists of 15 volumes containing review articles on a broad range of topics. General Climatology 3 contains four chapters: ‘Human Bioclimatology,’ ‘Agricultural Climatology,’ ‘City Climate,’ and ‘Technical Climatology.’ Each of these chapters will be briefly described here.‘Human Bioclimatology,’ the first chapter, was authored by E. Flach and provides a survey of the effects on the human organism of the physical conditions at the earth's surface. It contains four main sections. A section entitled ‘Light and Life’ deals with the effects of solar radiation on man and contains much interesting information on the response of the human eye and human skin to radiation at various frequencies. ‘Air and Life’ discusses the composition of air and its effect on human health and performance, including discussions of the effects of altitude, aerosols, and noxious trace gases. ‘Temperature and Life’ discusses how the body responds to temperature and how it maintains its heat budget under the variety of conditions to which it falls subject and considerable discussion is given to objective ways to characterize air conditions that give an accurate measure of their impact on the body. This discussion leads naturally into the final section, ‘Bioclimatological Evaluation Systems,’ which addresses the problem of how to classify a particular site according to its overall suitability to human habitation.

Correlation between asthma and climate in the European Community Respiratory Health Survey.

PubMed

Verlato, Giuseppe; Calabrese, Rolando; De Marco, Roberto

2002-01-01

The European Community Respiratory Health Survey, performed during 1991-1993, found a remarkable geographical variability in the prevalence of asthma and asthma-like symptoms in individuals aged 20-44 yr. The highest values occurred in the English-speaking centers. In the present investigation, the ecological relationship between climate and symptom prevalence was evaluated in the 48 centers of the European Community Respiratory Health Survey. Meteorological variables were derived from the Global Historical Climatology Network and were averaged over an 11-yr period (i.e., 1980-1990). Respiratory symptom prevalence was directly related to temperature in the coldest month and was related inversely to the temperature in the hottest month. Warm winters and cool summers are features of oceanic climate found in most English-speaking centers of the European Community Respiratory Health Survey (i.e., England, New Zealand, and Oregon). In conclusion, climate can account for significant geographic variability in respiratory symptom prevalence.

Changes to the temporal distribution of daily precipitation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rajah, Kailash; O'Leary, Tess; Turner, Alice; Petrakis, Gabriella; Leonard, Michael; Westra, Seth

2014-12-01

Changes to the temporal distribution of daily precipitation were investigated using a data set of 12,513 land-based stations from the Global Historical Climatology Network. The distribution of precipitation was measured using the Gini index (which describes how uniformly precipitation is distributed throughout a year) and the annual number of wet days. The Mann-Kendall test and a regression analysis were used to assess the direction and rate of change to both indices. Over the period of 1976-2000, East Asia, Central America, and Brazil exhibited a decrease in the number of both wet and light precipitation days, and eastern Europe exhibited a decrease in the number of both wet and moderate precipitation days. In contrast, the U.S., southern South America, western Europe, and Australia exhibited an increase in the number of both wet and light precipitation days. Trends in both directions were field significant at the global scale.

Physical Controls on Oxygen Distribution and Denitrification Potential in the North West Arabian Sea

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Queste, Bastien Y.; Vic, Clément; Heywood, Karen J.; Piontkovski, Sergey A.

2018-05-01

At suboxic oxygen concentrations, key biogeochemical cycles change and denitrification becomes the dominant remineralization pathway. Earth system models predict oxygen loss across most ocean basins in the next century; oxygen minimum zones near suboxia may become suboxic and therefore denitrifying. Using an ocean glider survey and historical data, we show oxygen loss in the Gulf of Oman (from 6-12 to <2 μmol kg-1) not represented in climatologies. Because of the nonlinearity between denitrification and oxygen concentration, resolutions of current Earth system models are too coarse to accurately estimate denitrification. We develop a novel physical proxy for oxygen from the glider data and use a high-resolution physical model to show eddy stirring of oxygen across the Gulf of Oman. We use the model to investigate spatial and seasonal differences in the ratio of oxic and suboxic water across the Gulf of Oman and waters exported to the wider Arabian Sea.

A spatiotemporal analysis of U.S. station temperature trends over the last century

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Capparelli, V.; Franzke, C.; Vecchio, A.; Freeman, M. P.; Watkins, N. W.; Carbone, V.

2013-07-01

This study presents a nonlinear spatiotemporal analysis of 1167 station temperature records from the United States Historical Climatology Network covering the period from 1898 through 2008. We use the empirical mode decomposition method to extract the generally nonlinear trends of each station. The statistical significance of each trend is assessed against three null models of the background climate variability, represented by stochastic processes of increasing temporal correlation length. We find strong evidence that more than 50% of all stations experienced a significant trend over the last century with respect to all three null models. A spatiotemporal analysis reveals a significant cooling trend in the South-East and significant warming trends in the rest of the contiguous U.S. It also shows that the warming trend appears to have migrated equatorward. This shows the complex spatiotemporal evolution of climate change at local scales.

Comparing the impact of time displaced and biased precipitation estimates for online updated urban runoff models.

PubMed

Borup, Morten; Grum, Morten; Mikkelsen, Peter Steen

2013-01-01

When an online runoff model is updated from system measurements, the requirements of the precipitation input change. Using rain gauge data as precipitation input there will be a displacement between the time when the rain hits the gauge and the time where the rain hits the actual catchment, due to the time it takes for the rain cell to travel from the rain gauge to the catchment. Since this time displacement is not present for system measurements the data assimilation scheme might already have updated the model to include the impact from the particular rain cell when the rain data is forced upon the model, which therefore will end up including the same rain twice in the model run. This paper compares forecast accuracy of updated models when using time displaced rain input to that of rain input with constant biases. This is done using a simple time-area model and historic rain series that are either displaced in time or affected with a bias. The results show that for a 10 minute forecast, time displacements of 5 and 10 minutes compare to biases of 60 and 100%, respectively, independent of the catchments time of concentration.

Low-flow frequency and flow-duration characteristics of selected streams in Alabama through March 2014

USGS Publications Warehouse

Feaster, Toby D.; Lee, Kathyrn G.

2017-08-28

Low-flow statistics are needed by water-resource engineers, planners, and managers to protect and manage the water resources of Alabama. The accuracy of these statistics is influenced by such factors as length of record and specific hydrologic conditions measured in those records. As such, it is generally recommended that flow statistics be updated about every 10 years to provide improved and representative low-flow characteristics. The previous investigation of low-flow characteristics for Alabama included data through September 1990. Since that time, Alabama has experienced several historic droughts highlighting the need to update the low-flow characteristics at U.S. Geological Survey streamgaging stations. Consequently, this investigation was undertaken in cooperation with a number of State and local agencies to update low-flow frequency and flow-duration statistics at 210 continuous-record streamgaging stations in Alabama and 67 stations from basins that are shared with surrounding States. The flow characteristics were computed on the basis of available data through March 2014.

A climatological description of the Savannah River Site

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Hunter, C.H.

1990-05-22

This report provides a general climatological description of the Savannah River Site. The description provides both regional and local scale climatology. The regional climatology includes a general regional climatic description and presents information on occurrence frequencies of the severe meteorological phenomena that are important considerations in the design and siting of a facility. These phenomena include tornadoes, thunderstorms, hurricanes, and ice/snow storms. Occurrence probabilities given for extreme tornado and non-tornado winds are based on previous site specific studies. Local climatological conditions that are significant with respect to the impact of facility operations on the environment are described using on-site ormore » near-site meteorological data. Summaries of wind speed, wind direction, and atmospheric stability are primarily based on the most recently generated five-year set of data collected from the onsite meteorological tower network (1982--86). Temperature, humidity, and precipitation summaries include data from SRL's standard meteorological instrument shelter and the Augusta National Weather Service office at Bush Field through 1986. A brief description of the onsite meteorological monitoring program is also provided. 24 refs., 15 figs., 22 tabs.« less

Frequency Dependent Nudging of Hydrographic Data Into a Numerical Model of the North Atlantic

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Thompson, K. R.; Wright, D. G.

2002-12-01

Nudging is one of the simplest ways of assimilating data into ocean models and it has been used for many years in studies of large-scale ocean circulation. One of its drawbacks is the suppression of eddies when nudging an eddy-permitting ocean model strongly toward an observed seasonal climatology. We propose a straightforward extension of nudging in which the model's climatology, rather than its instantaneous state, is nudged toward the observed seasonal climatology. In effect we propose nudging in specific frequency bands that are centered on the discrete frequencies evident in the observed climatology (e.g. 0, 1/12 and 1/6 cycles per month). This extension of conventional nudging allows the difference between the observed and modeled climatologies arbitrarily to be made small while allowing variations outside the selected frequency bands to evolve freely. We show how the method can be implemented efficiently in complex models using a Kalman filter and also discuss the benefits of spatially smoothing the nudges. We conclude with a demonstration of frequency dependent nudging using a 1/3 degree model of the North Atlantic.

Update to the Lightning Probability Forecast Equations at Kennedy Space Center/Cape Canaveral Air Force Station, Florida

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lambert, Winifred; Roeder, William

2007-01-01

This conference presentation describes the improvement of a set of lightning probability forecast equations that are used by the 45th Weather Squadron forecasters for their daily 1100 UTC (0700 EDT) weather briefing during the warm season months of May-September. This information is used for general scheduling of operations at Cape Canaveral Air Force Station and Kennedy Space Center. Forecasters at the Spaceflight Meteorology Group also make thunderstorm forecasts during Shuttle flight operations. Five modifications were made by the Applied Meteorology Unit: increased the period of record from 15 to 17 years, changed the method of calculating the flow regime of the day, calculated a new optimal layer relative humidity, used a new smoothing technique for the daily climatology, and used a new valid area. The test results indicated that the modified equations showed and increase in skill over the current equations, good reliability, and an ability to distinguish between lightning and non-lightning days.

Update to the Lightning Probability Forecast Equations at Kennedy Space Center/Cape Canaveral Air Force Station, Florida

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lambert, Winifred; Roeder, William

2007-01-01

This conference presentation describes the improvement of a set of lightning probability forecast equations that are used by the 45th Weather Squadron forecasters for their daily 1100 UTC (0700 EDT) weather briefing during the warm season months of May- September. This information is used for general scheduling of operations at Cape Canaveral Air Force Station and Kennedy Space Center. Forecasters at the Spaceflight Meteorology Group also make thunderstorm forecasts during Shuttle flight operations. Five modifications were made by the Applied Meteorology Unit: increased the period of record from 15 to 17 years, changed the method of calculating the flow regime of the day, calculated a new optimal layer relative humidity, used a new smoothing technique for the daily climatology, and used a new valid area. The test results indicated that the modified equations showed and increase in skill over the current equations, good reliability, and an ability to distinguish between lightning and non-lightning days.

Update to the Objective Lightning Probability Forecast Tool in Use at Cape Canaveral Air Force Station, Florida

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lambert, Winifred; Roeder, William

2008-01-01

This conference presentation describes the improvement of a set of lightning probability forecast equations that are used by the 45th Weather Squadron forecasters for their daily 1100 UTC (0700 EDT) weather briefing during the warm season months of May-September. This information is used for general scheduling of operations at Cape Canaveral Air Force Station and Kennedy Space Center. Forecasters at the Spaceflight Meteorology Group also make thunderstorm forecasts during Shuttle flight operations. Five modifications were made by the Applied Meteorology Unit: increased the period of record from 15 to 17 years, changed the method of calculating the flow regime of the day, calculated a new optimal layer relative humidity, used a new smoothing technique for the daily climatology, and used a new valid area. The test results indicated that the modified equaitions showed and increase in skill over the current equations, good reliability, and an ability to distinguish between lightning and non-lightning days.

Update to the Objective Lightning Probability Forecast Tool in use at Cape Canaveral Air Force Station, Florida

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lambert, Winifred; Roeder, William

2013-01-01

This conference poster describes the improvement of a set of lightning probability forecast equations that are used by the 45th Weather Squadron forecasters for their daily 1100 UTC (0700 EDT) weather briefing during the warm season months of May-September. This information is used for general scheduling of operations at Cape Canaveral Air Force Station and Kennedy Space Center. Forecasters at the Spaceflight Meteorology Group also make thunderstorm forecasts during Shuttle flight operations. Five modifications were made by the Applied Meteorology Unit: increased the period of record from 15 to 17 years, changed the method of calculating the flow regime of the day, calculated a new optimal layer relative humidity, used a new smoothing technique for the daily climatology, and used a new valid area. The test results indicated that the modified equations showed and increase in skill over the current equations, good reliability and an ability to distinguish between lightning and non-lightning days.

Wildlife resource trends in the United States: A technical document supporting the 2000 RPA Assessment

Treesearch

Curtis H. Flather; Stephen J. Brady; Michael S. Knowles

1999-01-01

This report documents trends in wildlife resources for the nation as required by the Renewable Resources Planning Act (RPA) of 1974. The report focuses on recent historical trends in wildlife as one indicator of ecosystem health across the United States and updates wildlife trends presented in previous RPA Assessments. The report also shows short- and long-term...

Thinking and Writing: Cognitive Science and Intelligence Analysis

DTIC Science & Technology

2010-02-01

well as books and monographs addressing historical, operational, doctrinal, and theoretical aspects of the intelligence profession. It also...Intelligence published an updated version of Heuer’s articles in a book , Psychology of Intelligence Analysis, in 1999. Since reprinted by CIA and available...commercially, the book is now a staple in many analytic training courses. conclusion. This and other examples, he says, il- lustrate how the things

Early Childhood Education--An Updated Collection of Dissertation Abstracts of Reports Dealing with English Language Development and Language Arts Curriculum Focusing on the Disadvantaged.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Rubin, Katharine

Three major sections, English language development, language arts curriculum, and historical overviews, compose this bibliography compiled from a review of Dissertation Abstracts International, July 1973-June 1974 and July 1974-June 1975. Its focus is on prekindergarten and primary minority groups and disadvantaged children, and it excludes those…

GAO’s 2011 High-Risk Series: An Update

DTIC Science & Technology

2011-02-17

DOD Contract Management • DOE’s Contract Management for the National Nuclear Security Administration and Office of Environmental Management • NASA ...expertise to prevent. Historically, Interior’s Bureau of Land Management ( BLM ) managed onshore federal oil and gas activities, while the Minerals Management...neither BLM nor MMS had consistently met their statutory requirements or agency goals for oil and gas production verification inspections. Without such

Updating the Model Definition of the Gene in the Modern Genomic Era with Implications for Instruction

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Smith, Mike U.; Adkison, Linda R.

2010-01-01

Gericke and Hagberg (G & H, "Sci Educ" 16:849-881, 2007) recently published in this journal a thoughtful analysis of the historical progression of our understanding of the nature of the gene for use in instruction. This analysis, however, did not include the findings of the Human Genome Project (HGP), which must be included in any introductory…

A Global Ozone Climatology from Ozone Soundings via Trajectory Mapping: A Stratospheric Perspective

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Liu, J. J.; Tarasick, D. W.; Fioletov, V. E.; McLinden, C.; Zhao, T.; Gong, S.; Sioris, G.; Jin, J. J.; Liu, G.; Moeini, O.

2013-01-01

This study explores a domain-filling trajectory approach to generate a global ozone climatology from sparse ozonesonde data. Global ozone soundings of 51,898 profiles at 116 stations over 44 years (1965-2008) are used, from which forward and backward trajectories are performed for 4 days, driven by a set of meteorological reanalysis data. Ozone mixing ratios of each sounding from the surface to 26 km altitude are assigned to the entire path along the trajectory. The resulting global ozone climatology is archived monthly for five decades from the 1960s to the 2000s with grids of 5 degree 5 degree 1 km (latitude, longitude, and altitude). It is also archived yearly from 1965 to 2008. This climatology is validated at 20 ozonesonde stations by comparing the actual ozone sounding profile with that found through the trajectories, using the ozone soundings at all the stations except one being tested. The two sets of profiles are in good agreement, both individually with correlation coefficients between 0.975 and 0.998 and root mean square (RMS) differences of 87 to 482 ppbv, and overall with a correlation coefficient of 0.991 and an RMS of 224 ppbv. The ozone climatology is also compared with two sets of satellite data, from the Satellite Aerosol and Gas Experiment (SAGE) and the Optical Spectrography and InfraRed Imager System (OSIRIS). Overall, the ozone climatology compares well with SAGE and OSIRIS data by both seasonal and zonal means. The mean difference is generally under 20 above 15 km. The comparison is better in the northern hemisphere, where there are more ozonesonde stations, than in the southern hemisphere; it is also better in the middle and high latitudes than in the tropics, where assimilated winds are imperfect in some regions. This ozone climatology can capture known features in the stratosphere, as well as seasonal and decadal variations of these features. Furthermore, it provides a wealth of detail about longitudinal variations in the stratosphere such as the spring ozone maximum over the Canadian Arctic. It also covers higher latitudes than current satellite data. The climatology shows clearly the depletion of ozone from the 1970s to the mid 1990s and ozone recovery in the 2000s. When this climatology is used as the upper boundary condition in an Environment Canada operational chemical forecast model, the forecast is improved in the vicinity of the upper tropospherelower stratosphere region. As this ozone climatology is neither dependent on a priori data or photochemical modeling, it provides independent information and insight that can supplement satellite data and model simulations and enhance our understanding of stratospheric ozone.

Climate Forecast System

Science.gov Websites

number of Reforecast datasets are available at NCDC: 9 Month Means 45Day/Seasonal Timeseries (14 select 9 Month Means Calibration Climatologies of CFSR Monthly Calibration Climatologies of CFSR Timeseries

Wave Climate and Wave Mixing in the Marginal Ice Zones of Arctic Seas, Observations and Modelling

DTIC Science & Technology

2015-09-30

ababanin.com/ LONG-TERM GOALS The long-term goals of the present project are two: wind/wave climatology for the Arctic Seas, and their current...OBJECTIVES The wind/wave climatology for the Arctic Seas will be developed based on altimeter observations. It will have a major scientific and...applied significance as presently there is no reference climatology for this region of the ocean available. The new versions of wave models for the

Mediterranean Overflow Water (MOW) Simulation Using a Coupled Multiple-Grid Mediterranean Sea/North Atlantic Ocean Model

DTIC Science & Technology

2008-07-22

close to GDEM climatology but also quite similar to the upper level flow shown in Figure 5b of Johnson et al. [2002], although they used higher...will make comparisons with climatology ( GDEM and lorga and Lozier [1999]) and other model results [Drillet et al, 2005]. [41] Figure 9 compares the...annual averaged model salin- ity (a) with the U. S. Navy’s Generalized Digital Environ- mental Model ( GDEM ) 1/4° resolution climatology (b). The

A Database of Historical Information on Landslides and Floods in Italy

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Guzzetti, F.; Tonelli, G.

2003-04-01

For the past 12 years we have maintained and updated a database of historical information on landslides and floods in Italy, known as the National Research Council's AVI (Damaged Urban Areas) Project archive. The database was originally designed to respond to a specific request of the Minister of Civil Protection, and was aimed at helping the regional assessment of landslide and flood risk in Italy. The database was first constructed in 1991-92 to cover the period 1917 to 1990. Information of damaging landslide and flood event was collected by searching archives, by screening thousands of newspaper issues, by reviewing the existing technical and scientific literature on landslides and floods in Italy, and by interviewing landslide and flood experts. The database was then updated chiefly through the analysis of hundreds of newspaper articles, and it now covers systematically the period 1900 to 1998, and non-systematically the periods 1900 to 1916 and 1999 to 2002. Non systematic information on landslide and flood events older than 20th century is also present in the database. The database currently contains information on more than 32,000 landslide events occurred at more than 25,700 sites, and on more than 28,800 flood events occurred at more than 15,600 sites. After a brief outline of the history and evolution of the AVI Project archive, we present and discuss: (a) the present structure of the database, including the hardware and software solutions adopted to maintain, manage, use and disseminate the information stored in the database, (b) the type and amount of information stored in the database, including an estimate of its completeness, and (c) examples of recent applications of the database, including a web-based GIS systems to show the location of sites historically affected by landslides and floods, and an estimate of geo-hydrological (i.e., landslide and flood) risk in Italy based on the available historical information.

Predicting Depression among Patients with Diabetes Using Longitudinal Data. A Multilevel Regression Model.

PubMed

Jin, H; Wu, S; Vidyanti, I; Di Capua, P; Wu, B

2015-01-01

This article is part of the Focus Theme of Methods of Information in Medicine on "Big Data and Analytics in Healthcare". Depression is a common and often undiagnosed condition for patients with diabetes. It is also a condition that significantly impacts healthcare outcomes, use, and cost as well as elevating suicide risk. Therefore, a model to predict depression among diabetes patients is a promising and valuable tool for providers to proactively assess depressive symptoms and identify those with depression. This study seeks to develop a generalized multilevel regression model, using a longitudinal data set from a recent large-scale clinical trial, to predict depression severity and presence of major depression among patients with diabetes. Severity of depression was measured by the Patient Health Questionnaire PHQ-9 score. Predictors were selected from 29 candidate factors to develop a 2-level Poisson regression model that can make population-average predictions for all patients and subject-specific predictions for individual patients with historical records. Newly obtained patient records can be incorporated with historical records to update the prediction model. Root-mean-square errors (RMSE) were used to evaluate predictive accuracy of PHQ-9 scores. The study also evaluated the classification ability of using the predicted PHQ-9 scores to classify patients as having major depression. Two time-invariant and 10 time-varying predictors were selected for the model. Incorporating historical records and using them to update the model may improve both predictive accuracy of PHQ-9 scores and classification ability of the predicted scores. Subject-specific predictions (for individual patients with historical records) achieved RMSE about 4 and areas under the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve about 0.9 and are better than population-average predictions. The study developed a generalized multilevel regression model to predict depression and demonstrated that using generalized multilevel regression based on longitudinal patient records can achieve high predictive ability.

Description and evaluation of the Community Multiscale Air ...

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

The Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ) model is a comprehensive multipollutant air quality modeling system developed and maintained by the US Environmental Protection Agency's (EPA) Office of Research and Development (ORD). Recently, version 5.1 of the CMAQ model (v5.1) was released to the public, incorporating a large number of science updates and extended capabilities over the previous release version of the model (v5.0.2). These updates include the following: improvements in the meteorological calculations in both CMAQ and the Weather Research and Forecast (WRF) model used to provide meteorological fields to CMAQ, updates to the gas and aerosol chemistry, revisions to the calculations of clouds and photolysis, and improvements to the dry and wet deposition in the model. Sensitivity simulations isolating several of the major updates to the modeling system show that changes to the meteorological calculations result in enhanced afternoon and early evening mixing in the model, periods when the model historically underestimates mixing. This enhanced mixing results in higher ozone (O3) mixing ratios on average due to reduced NO titration, and lower fine particulate matter (PM2. 5) concentrations due to greater dilution of primary pollutants (e.g., elemental and organic carbon). Updates to the clouds and photolysis calculations greatly improve consistency between the WRF and CMAQ models and result in generally higher O3 mixing ratios, primarily due to reduced

Evolution of the Earthquake Catalog in Central America

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rojas, W.; Camacho, E. I.; Marroquín, G.; Molina, E.; Talavera, E.; Benito, M. B.; Lindholm, C.

2013-05-01

Central America (CA) is known as a seismically active region in which several historic destructive earthquakes have occurred. This fact has promoved the development of seismic hazard studies that provide necessary estimates for decision making and risk assessment efforts, requiring a complete and standardized seismic catalog. With this aim, several authors have contributed to the study of the historical seismicity of Central America (e.g. Grases, Feldaman; White y Harlow, 1993; White et al. 2004; Ambraseys y Adams, 2001; Peraldo y Montero, 1999), who complied historical data. A first catalogue was developed by Rojas (1993) that comprises the 1522 to 1993 period. This information was integrated in 2007, together with data from the International Seismological Centre (CASC) and the national catalogs of CA countries in a new regional catalogue. Since 2007 a continuous effort has been done in order to complete and update this CA earthquake catalog. In particular, two workshops were held in 2008 and 2011 in the Universidad Politécnica de Madrid (Spain), joining experts from the different CA countries who worked each one in its own catalogue covering the entire region and the border with northwestern Colombia and southern Mexico. These national catalogues were later integrated in a common regional catalogue in SEISAN format. At this aim it was necessary to solve some problems, like to avoid duplicity of events, specially close to the boundaries, to consider the different scales of magnitude adopted by different countries, to take into account the completeness by the different national networks, etc. Some solutions were adopted for obtaining a homogenized catalogue to Mw, containing historical and instrumental events with Mw > 3.5 from 1522 up to 2011. The catalogue updated to December 2007 was the basis for the first regional hazard study carried out by Benito et al., (2011) as part of the collaborative RESIS II project under coordination of NORSAR. The ones updated to 2011 is been used in a new seismic hazard study for the entire region. The responsable institutions of each CA country are: INSIVUMEH in Guatemala; Servicio Nacional de Estudios Territoriales, (SNET) in El Salvador; Red Sismológica National-RSN and Observatorio Sismológico and Vulcanológico de Costa Rica-OVSICORI, Observatorio Sismológico de la Universidad de Panama-UPA and Centro Sismológico de America Central, CASC This catalog is a very useful tool to conduct regional or local seismic hazard studies.

Sensitive study of the climatological SST by using ATSR global SST data sets

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Xue, Yong; Lawrence, Sean P.; Llewellyn-Jones, David T.

1995-12-01

Climatological sea surface temperature (SST) is an initial step for global climate processing monitoring. A comparison has been made by using Oberhuber's SST data set and two years monthly averaged SST from ATSR thermal band data to force the OGCM. In the eastern Pacific Ocean, these make only a small difference to model SST. In the western Pacific Ocean, the use of Oberhuber's data set gives higher climatological SST than that using ATSR data. The SSTs were also simulated for 1992 using climatological SSTs from two years monthly averaged ATSR data and Oberhuber data. The forcing with SST from ATSR data was found to give better SST simulation than that from Oberhuber's data. Our study has confirmed that ATSR can provide accurate monthly averaged global SST for global climate processing monitoring.

Applied Meteorology Unit (AMU)

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Bauman, William; Lambert, Winifred; Case, Jonathan; Short, David; Barrett, Joe

2006-01-01

Develop climatologies of gridded CG lightning densities and frequencies of occurrence for the Melbourne, FL National Weather Service (NWS MLB) county warning area. These grids are used to create a first-guess field for the lightning threat index map that is available on the NWS MLB NASA KSCIKT website. Forecasters previously created this map from scratch. Having the climatologies as a background field will increase consistency between forecasters and decrease their workload. Delivered all files containing the lightning climatologies, the data, and the code used to create the climatologies to NWS MLB. Completed and distributed a final memorandum describing how the climatologies were created. All the files were installed on the NWS MLB computer system, and then the code was compiled and tested to ensure that it worked properly on their operating system. The climatologies and their descriptions are posted on the NWS MLB website. Forecasting Low-Level Convergent Bands Under Southeast Flow Provide guidance to operational personnel that will help improve their forecasts of cloud bands under large-scale southeast flow. When these bands occur, they can lead to cloud, rain, and thunderstorm occurrences that adversely affect launch, landing, and ground operations at Kennedy Space Center/Cape Canaveral Air Force Station (KSC/CCAFS). Completed the first draft of the final report. The conclusions from this task indicated low-level wind speed and direction, low-level high pressure ridge position, east coast sea breeze front activity and upper-level jet streak position have the greatest influence on convergent band formation and movement during southeasterly flow.

Climatological determinants of woody cover in Africa.

PubMed

Good, Stephen P; Caylor, Kelly K

2011-03-22

Determining the factors that influence the distribution of woody vegetation cover and resolving the sensitivity of woody vegetation cover to shifts in environmental forcing are critical steps necessary to predict continental-scale responses of dryland ecosystems to climate change. We use a 6-year satellite data record of fractional woody vegetation cover and an 11-year daily precipitation record to investigate the climatological controls on woody vegetation cover across the African continent. We find that-as opposed to a relationship with only mean annual rainfall-the upper limit of fractional woody vegetation cover is strongly influenced by both the quantity and intensity of rainfall events. Using a set of statistics derived from the seasonal distribution of rainfall, we show that areas with similar seasonal rainfall totals have higher fractional woody cover if the local rainfall climatology consists of frequent, less intense precipitation events. Based on these observations, we develop a generalized response surface between rainfall climatology and maximum woody vegetation cover across the African continent. The normalized local gradient of this response surface is used as an estimator of ecosystem vegetation sensitivity to climatological variation. A comparison between predicted climate sensitivity patterns and observed shifts in both rainfall and vegetation during 2009 reveals both the importance of rainfall climatology in governing how ecosystems respond to interannual fluctuations in climate and the utility of our framework as a means to forecast continental-scale patterns of vegetation shifts in response to future climate change.

A Model of the Effect of Ozone Depletion on Lower-Stratospheric Structure

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Olsen, Mark A.; Stolarski, Richard S.; Gupta, Mohan L.; Nielsen, J. Eric; Pawson, Steven

2005-01-01

We have run two twenty-year integrations of a global circulation model using 1978-1980 and 1998-2000 monthly mean ozone climatologies. The ozone climatology is used solely in the radiation scheme of the model. Several key differences between the model runs will be presented. The temperature and potential vorticity (PV) structure of the lower stratosphere, particularly in the Southern Hemisphere, is significantly changed using the 1998-2000 ozone climatology. In the Southern Hemisphere summer, the lapse rate and PV-defined polar tropopauses are both at altitudes on the order of several hundred meters greater than the 1978-1980 climatological run. The 380 K potential temperature surf= is likewise at a greater altitude. The mass of the extratropical lowermost stratosphere (between the tropopause and 380 K surface) remains unchanged. The altitude differences are not observed in the Northern Hemisphere. The different ozone fields do not produce a significant change in the annual extratropical stratosphere-troposphere exchange of mass although slight variations in the spatial distribution of the exchange exist. We are also investigating a delay in the breakup of the Southern Hemisphere polar vortex due to the differing ozone climatologies.

Validation of Global Climatologies of Trace Gases Using NASA Global Tropospheric Experiment (GTE) Data

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Courchaine, Brian; Venable, Jessica C.

1995-01-01

Methane is an important trace gas because it is a greenhouse gas that affects the oxidative capacity of the atmosphere. It is produced from biological and anthropogenic sources, and is increasing globally at a rate of approximately 0.6% per year [Climate Change 1992, IPCC]. By using National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration/Climate Monitoring and Diagnostics Laboratory (NOAA/CMDL) ground station data, a global climatology of methane values was produced. Unfortunately, because the NOAA/CMDL ground stations are so sparse, the global climatology is low resolution. In order to compensate for this low resolution data, it was compared to in-situ flight data obtained from the NASA Global Tropospheric Experiment (GTE). The smoothed ground station data correlated well with the flight data. Thus, for the first time it is shown that the smoothing process used to make global contours of methane using the ground stations is a plausible way to approximate global atmospheric concentrations of the gas. These verified climatologies can be used for testing large-scale models of chemical production, destruction, and transport. This project develops the groundwork for further research in building global climatologies from sparse ground station data and studying the transport and distribution of trace gases.

THE OKLAHOMA MESONET

EPA Science Inventory

The Oklahoma Mesonet, operated and maintained by the Oklahoma Climatological Survey, is Oklahoma's premier climatological data collection system. For the area covered, which includes the entire state, no other system within the United States or internationally has the degree of ...

Update on autism spectrum disorder: vaccines, genomes, and social skills training.

PubMed

McGuinness, Teena M

2015-04-01

Despite making significant progress in understanding autism spectrum disorder (ASD) and its genetic underpinnings, controversy remains regarding ASD and its historical, erroneous association with vaccines. This controversy includes the latest anti-vaccine movement that caused a recurrence of the almost vanquished measles and mumps diseases. The history of ASD, complexities of research involving ASD genetics, and benefits of social skills training are explored. Copyright 2015, SLACK Incorporated.

One Door to the Corps: The U.S. Army Engineering and Support Center, Huntsville Historical Update, 1998-2007

DTIC Science & Technology

2009-01-01

with Transpiring Wall Reactor; and Gas Phase Chemical Reduction systems . After much study , ACWA selected three technologies for additional study ...detection systems , and hardware development. Importantly, these advancements allowed for a more effective and cost-efficient remediation process... grounds at the ASPs, the munitions contractors considered a variety of factors, including proximity to the local civilian population and potential

17 CFR 240.15c3-1f - Optional market and credit risk requirements for OTC derivatives dealers (Appendix F to 17 CFR...

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-04-01

... observations cannot be less than six months. Historical data sets must be updated at least every three months... quantitative aspects of the model which at a minimum must adhere to the criteria set forth in paragraph (e) of..., a description of how its own theoretical pricing model contains the minimum pricing factors set...

A revised load estimation procedure for the Susquehanna, Potomac, Patuxent, and Choptank rivers

USGS Publications Warehouse

Yochum, Steven E.

2000-01-01

The U.S. Geological Survey?s Chesapeake Bay River Input Program has updated the nutrient and suspended-sediment load data base for the Susquehanna, Potomac, Patuxent, and Choptank Rivers using a multiple-window, center-estimate regression methodology. The revised method optimizes the seven-parameter regression approach that has been used historically by the program. The revised method estimates load using the fifth or center year of a sliding 9-year window. Each year a new model is run for each site and constituent, the most recent year is added, and the previous 4 years of estimates are updated. The fifth year in the 9-year window is considered the best estimate and is kept in the data base. The last year of estimation shows the most change from the previous year?s estimate and this change approaches a minimum at the fifth year. Differences between loads computed using this revised methodology and the loads populating the historical data base have been noted but the load estimates do not typically change drastically. The data base resulting from the application of this revised methodology is populated by annual and monthly load estimates that are known with greater certainty than in the previous load data base.

Massachusetts shoreline change project: a GIS compilation of vector shorelines and associated shoreline change data for the 2013 update

USGS Publications Warehouse

Smith, Theresa L.; Himmelstoss, Emily A.; Thieler, E. Robert

2013-01-01

Identifying the rates and trends associated with the position of the shoreline through time presents vital information on potential impacts these changes may have on coastal populations and infrastructure, and supports informed coastal management decisions. This report publishes the historical shoreline data used to assess the scale and timing of erosion and accretion along the Massachusetts coast from New Hampshire to Rhode Island including all of Cape Cod, Martha’s Vineyard, Nantucket and the Elizabeth Islands. This data is an update to the Massachusetts Office of Coastal Zone Management Shoreline Change Project. Shoreline positions from the past 164 years (1845 to 2009) were used to compute the shoreline change rates. These data include a combined length of 1,804 kilometers of new shoreline data derived from color orthophoto imagery collected in 2008 and 2009, and topographic lidar collected in 2007. These new shorelines have been added to previously published historic shoreline data from the Massachusetts Office of Coastal Zone Management and the U.S. Geological Survey. A detailed report containing a discussion of the shoreline change data presented here and a summary of the resulting rates is available and cited at the end of the Introduction section of this report.

Airborne Laser Hydrography II

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Philpot, W.; Wozencraft, J.

2016-02-01

In 1985, Dr. Gary Guenther assembled the text, "Airborne Laser Hydrography" which quickly became a heavily used manual and guide for any and all scientists and engineers involved with airborne lidar bathymetry (ALB). It was a remarkable book that captured a snapshot of the state of the art of ALB and included historical developments, theoretical and modeling efforts as well as design characteristics and constraints, ending with accuracy assessment and a discussion of design tradeoffs. Known familiarly as the "Blue Book" it served the community remarkably well for many years. At 30 years of age, it is still a valued reference, but unavoidably dated in a field that has developed rapidly and nonstop over the intervening years. It is time for an update. The new text is attempt by the ALB community to update and expand upon Guenther's text. Like the original, Blue Book II reviews the historical developments in ALB, extending them into the 21st century, considers basic environmental water optical properties, theoretical developments, data processing and performance evaluation. All have progressed dramatically in the past 30 years. This paper presents an outline of the new book, a description of the contents, with emphasis on the theoretical models of the lidar waveform and its propagation through, and interaction with the water.

On the performance of updating Stochastic Dynamic Programming policy using Ensemble Streamflow Prediction in a snow-covered region

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Martin, A.; Pascal, C.; Leconte, R.

2014-12-01

Stochastic Dynamic Programming (SDP) is known to be an effective technique to find the optimal operating policy of hydropower systems. In order to improve the performance of SDP, this project evaluates the impact of re-updating the policy at every time step by using Ensemble Streamflow Prediction (ESP). We present a case study of the Kemano's hydropower system on the Nechako River in British Columbia, Canada. Managed by Rio Tinto Alcan (RTA), this system is subject to large streamflow volumes in spring due to important amount of snow depth during the winter season. Therefore, the operating policy should not only maximize production but also minimize the risk of flooding. The hydrological behavior of the system is simulated with CEQUEAU, a distributed and deterministic hydrological model developed by the Institut national de la recherche scientifique - Eau, Terre et Environnement (INRS-ETE) in Quebec, Canada. On each decision time step, CEQUEAU is used to generate ESP scenarios based on historical meteorological sequences and the current state of the hydrological model. These scenarios are used into the SDP to optimize the new release policy for the next time steps. This routine is then repeated over the entire simulation period. Results are compared with those obtained by using SDP on historical inflow scenarios.

Characterizing the Effects of Convection on the Afternoon to Evening Boundary Layer Transition During Pecan 2015

DTIC Science & Technology

2016-12-01

roughness that is an input variable. For the FP2 site in Kansas, we searched for the climatological surface roughness height used in the Navy’s...COAMPS model for the latitude and longitude of FP2 and in the month of June/July. The climatological roughness height was found to be 0.25m. This is the...mean surface roughness for an area of 1 km on the side near FP2 as the climatological data has a horizontal grid resolution of 1 km. This roughness

Designing an 'expert knowledge' based approach for the quantification of historical floods - the case study of the Kinzig catchment in Southwest Germany

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bösmeier, Annette; Glaser, Rüdiger; Stahl, Kerstin; Himmelsbach, Iso; Schönbein, Johannes

2017-04-01

Future estimations of flood hazard and risk for developing optimal coping and adaption strategies inevitably include considerations of the frequency and magnitude of past events. Methods of historical climatology represent one way of assessing flood occurrences beyond the period of instrumental measurements and can thereby substantially help to extend the view into the past and to improve modern risk analysis. Such historical information can be of additional value and has been used in statistical approaches like Bayesian flood frequency analyses during recent years. However, the derivation of quantitative values from vague descriptive information of historical sources remains a crucial challenge. We explored possibilities of parametrization of descriptive flood related data specifically for the assessment of historical floods in a framework that combines a hermeneutical approach with mathematical and statistical methods. This study forms part of the transnational, Franco-German research project TRANSRISK2 (2014 - 2017), funded by ANR and DFG, with the focus on exploring the floods history of the last 300 years for the regions of Upper and Middle Rhine. A broad data base of flood events had been compiled, dating back to AD 1500. The events had been classified based on hermeneutical methods, depending on intensity, spatial dimension, temporal structure, damages and mitigation measures associated with the specific events. This indexed database allowed the exploration of a link between descriptive data and quantitative information for the overlapping time period of classified floods and instrumental measurements since the end of the 19th century. Thereby, flood peak discharges as a quantitative measure of the severity of a flood were used to assess the discharge intervals for flood classes (upper and lower thresholds) within different time intervals for validating the flood classification, as well as examining the trend in the perception threshold over time. Furthermore, within a suitable time period, flood classes and other quantifiable indicators of flood intensity (number of damaged locations mentioned in historical sources, general availability of reports associated with a specific event) were combined with available peak discharges measurements. We argue that this information can be considered as 'expert knowledge' and used it to develop a fuzzy rule based model for deriving peak discharge estimates of pre-instrumental events that can finally be introduced into a flood frequency analysis.

VizieR Online Data Catalog: AAVSO International Variable Star Index VSX (Watson+, 2006-2014)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Watson, C.; Henden, A. A.; Price, A.

2017-05-01

This file contains Galactic stars known or suspected to be variable. It lists all stars that have an entry in the AAVSO International Variable Star Index (VSX; http://www.aavso.org/vsx). The database consisted initially of the General Catalogue of Variable Stars (GCVS) and the New Catalogue of Suspected Variables (NSV) and was then supplemented with a large number of variable star catalogues, as well as individual variable star discoveries or variables found in the literature. Effort has also been invested to update the entries with the latest information regarding position, type and period and to remove duplicates. The VSX database is being continually updated and maintained. For historical reasons some objects outside of the Galaxy have been included. (3 data files).

Development and operations of the astrophysics data system

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Murray, Stephen S.; Oliversen, Ronald (Technical Monitor)

2005-01-01

Abstract service - Continued regular updates of abstracts in the databases, both at SA0 and at all mirror sites. - Modified loading scripts to accommodate changes in data format (PhyS) - Discussed data deliveries with providers to clear up problems with format or other errors (EGU) - Continued inclusion of large numbers of historical literature volumes and physics conference volumes xeroxed from the library. - Performed systematic fixes on some data sets in the database to account for changes in article numbering (AGU journals) - Implemented linking of ADS bibliographic records with multimedia files - Debugged and fixed obscure connection problems with the ADS Korean mirror site which were preventing successful updates of the data holdings. - Wrote procedure to parse citation data and characterize an ADS record based on its citation ratios within each database.

VizieR Online Data Catalog: AAVSO International Variable Star Index VSX (Watson+, 2006-2014)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Watson, C.; Henden, A. A.; Price, A.

2018-05-01

This file contains Galactic stars known or suspected to be variable. It lists all stars that have an entry in the AAVSO International Variable Star Index (VSX; http://www.aavso.org/vsx). The database consisted initially of the General Catalogue of Variable Stars (GCVS) and the New Catalogue of Suspected Variables (NSV) and was then supplemented with a large number of variable star catalogues, as well as individual variable star discoveries or variables found in the literature. Effort has also been invested to update the entries with the latest information regarding position, type and period and to remove duplicates. The VSX database is being continually updated and maintained. For historical reasons some objects outside of the Galaxy have been included. (3 data files).

77 FR 2096 - Notice of Availability of Draft Environmental Impact Statement for the Proposed International...

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2012-01-13

... and scenic resources, climatology, meteorology and air quality, geology, minerals and soils, water... human communities would mostly be small, with the exception of small to moderate impacts on climatology...

Active Learning in Introductory Climatology.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Dewey, Kenneth F.; Meyer, Steven J.

2000-01-01

Introduces a software package available for the climatology curriculum that determines possible climatic events according to a long-term climate history. Describes the integration of the software into the curriculum and presents examples of active learning. (Contains 19 references.) (YDS)

Present-day constraint for tropical Pacific precipitation changes due to global warming in CMIP5 models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ham, Yoo-Geun; Kug, Jong-Seong

2016-11-01

The sensitivity of the precipitation responses to greenhouse warming can depend on the present-day climate. In this study, a robust linkage between the present-day precipitation climatology and precipitation change owing to global warming is examined in inter-model space. A model with drier climatology in the present-day simulation tends to simulate an increase in climatological precipitation owing to global warming. Moreover, the horizontal gradient of the present-day precipitation climatology plays an important role in determining the precipitation changes. On the basis of these robust relationships, future precipitation changes are calibrated by removing the impact of the present-day precipitation bias in the climate models. To validate this result, the perfect model approach is adapted, which treats a particular model's precipitation change as an observed change. The results suggest that the precipitation change pattern can be generally improved by applying the present statistical approach.

Convective climatology over the southwest U.S. and Mexico from passive microwave and infrared data

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Negri, Andrew J.; Howard, Kenneth W.; Keehn, Peter R.; Maddox, Robert A.; Adler, Robert F.

1992-01-01

Passive microwave data from the Special Sensor Microwave Imager (SSM/I) were used to estimate the amount of rainfall in the June-August season for the regions of the southwest U.S. and Mexico, and the results are compared to rain-gauge observations and to IR climatologies of Maddox et al. (1992), using both the hourly IR data and IR data sampled at the time of the overpass of the SSM/I. A comparison of the microwave climatology with monthly rainfall measured by the climatological gage network over several states of western Mexico resulted in a 0.63 correlation and a large (482 mm) bias, due to sampling and the incongruity of rain gages and satellite estimates. A comparison between the IR and microwave data showed that the IR tended toward higher percentages along the coast compared to the microwave.

Flow Regime Based Climatologies of Lightning Probabilities for Spaceports and Airports

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Bauman, William H., III; Sharp, David; Spratt, Scott; Lafosse, Richard A.

2008-01-01

The objective of this work was to provide forecasters with a tool to indicate the warm season climatological probability of one or more lightning strikes within a circle at a site within a specified time interval. This paper described the AMU work conducted in developing flow regime based climatologies of lightning probabilities for the SLF and seven airports in the NWS MLB CWA in east-central Florida. The paper also described the GUI developed by the AMU that is used to display the data for the operational forecasters. There were challenges working with gridded lightning data as well as the code that accompanied the gridded data. The AMU modified the provided code to be able to produce the climatologies of lightning probabilities based on eight flow regimes for 5-, 10-, 20-, and 30-n mi circles centered on eight sites in 1-, 3-, and 6-hour increments.

The MAC aerosol climatology

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kinne, S.

2015-12-01

Aerosol is highly diverse in space and time. And many different aerosol optical properties are needed (consistent to each other) for the determination of radiative effects. To sidestep a complex (and uncertain) aerosol treatment (emission to mass to optics) a monthly gridded climatology for aerosol properties has been developed. This MPI Aerosol Climatology (MAC) is strongly tied to observational statistics for aerosol column optical properties by AERONET (over land) and by MAN (over oceans). To fill spatial gaps, to address decadal change and to address vertical variability, these sparsely distributed local data are extended with central data of an ensemble of output from global models with complex aerosol modules. This data merging in performed for aerosol column amount (AOD), for aerosol size (AOD,fine) and for aerosol absorption (AAOD). The resulting MAC aerosol climatology is an example for the combination of high quality local observations with spatial, temporal and vertical context from model simulations.

Evaluation and Applications of Cloud Climatologies from CALIOP

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Winker, David; Getzewitch, Brian; Vaughan, Mark

2008-01-01

Clouds have a major impact on the Earth radiation budget and differences in the representation of clouds in global climate models are responsible for much of the spread in predicted climate sensitivity. Existing cloud climatologies, against which these models can be tested, have many limitations. The CALIOP lidar, carried on the CALIPSO satellite, has now acquired over two years of nearly continuous cloud and aerosol observations. This dataset provides an improved basis for the characterization of 3-D global cloudiness. Global average cloud cover measured by CALIOP is about 75%, significantly higher than for existing cloud climatologies due to the sensitivity of CALIOP to optically thin cloud. Day/night biases in cloud detection appear to be small. This presentation will discuss detection sensitivity and other issues associated with producing a cloud climatology, characteristics of cloud cover statistics derived from CALIOP data, and applications of those statistics.

Update of ECTOM - European catalogue of training opportunities in meteorology

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Halenka, Tomas; Belda, Michal

2016-04-01

After Bologna Declaration (1999) the process of integration of education at university level was started in most European countries with the aim to unify the system and structure of the tertiary education with the option for possibility of transnational mobility of students across the Europe. The goal was to achieve the compatibility between the systems and levels in individual countries to help this mobility. To support the effort it is useful to provide the information about the possibility of education in different countries in centralised form, with uniform shape and content, but validated on a national level. For meteorology and climatology this could be reasonably done on the floor of European Meteorological Society, ideally with contribution of individual National Meteorological Societies and their guidance. Brief history of the original ECTOM I and previous attempts to start ECTOM II is given. Further need of update of the content is discussed with emphasis to several aspects. There are several reasons for such an update of ECTOM 1. First, there are many more new EMS members which could contribute to the catalogue. Second, corrected, new, more precise and expanding information will be available in addition to existing record, particularly in sense of some changes in education systems of EC countries and associated countries approaching the EC following the main goals included in Bologna Declaration. Third, contemporary technology to organize the real database with the possibility of easier navigation and searching of the appropriate information and feasibility to keep them up to date permanently through the WWW interface should be adopted. In this presentation, the engine of ECTOM II database will be shown together with practical information how to find and submit information on access to education or training possibilities. Finally, as we have started with filling the database using freely available information from the web, practical examples of use will be demonstrated on-line.

GMMIP (v1.0) contribution to CMIP6: Global Monsoons Model Inter-comparison Project

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Zhou, Tianjun; Turner, Andrew G.; Kinter, James L.

The Global Monsoons Model Inter-comparison Project (GMMIP) has been endorsed by the panel of Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project (CMIP) as one of the participating model inter-comparison projects (MIPs) in the sixth phase of CMIP (CMIP6). The focus of GMMIP is on monsoon climatology, variability, prediction and projection, which is relevant to four of the “Grand Challenges” proposed by the World Climate Research Programme. At present, 21 international modeling groups are committed to joining GMMIP. This overview paper introduces the motivation behind GMMIP and the scientific questions it intends to answer. Three tiers of experiments, of decreasing priority, are designed to examinemore » (a) model skill in simulating the climatology and interannual-to-multidecadal variability of global monsoons forced by the sea surface temperature during historical climate period; (b) the roles of the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation and Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation in driving variations of the global and regional monsoons; and (c) the effects of large orographic terrain on the establishment of the monsoons. The outputs of the CMIP6 Diagnostic, Evaluation and Characterization of Klima experiments (DECK), “historical” simulation and endorsed MIPs will also be used in the diagnostic analysis of GMMIP to give a comprehensive understanding of the roles played by different external forcings, potential improvements in the simulation of monsoon rainfall at high resolution and reproducibility at decadal timescales. The implementation of GMMIP will improve our understanding of the fundamental physics of changes in the global and regional monsoons over the past 140 years and ultimately benefit monsoons prediction and projection in the current century.« less

Short-term sea ice forecasting: An assessment of ice concentration and ice drift forecasts using the U.S. Navy's Arctic Cap Nowcast/Forecast System

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hebert, David A.; Allard, Richard A.; Metzger, E. Joseph; Posey, Pamela G.; Preller, Ruth H.; Wallcraft, Alan J.; Phelps, Michael W.; Smedstad, Ole Martin

2015-12-01

In this study the forecast skill of the U.S. Navy operational Arctic sea ice forecast system, the Arctic Cap Nowcast/Forecast System (ACNFS), is presented for the period February 2014 to June 2015. ACNFS is designed to provide short term, 1-7 day forecasts of Arctic sea ice and ocean conditions. Many quantities are forecast by ACNFS; the most commonly used include ice concentration, ice thickness, ice velocity, sea surface temperature, sea surface salinity, and sea surface velocities. Ice concentration forecast skill is compared to a persistent ice state and historical sea ice climatology. Skill scores are focused on areas where ice concentration changes by ±5% or more, and are therefore limited to primarily the marginal ice zone. We demonstrate that ACNFS forecasts are skilful compared to assuming a persistent ice state, especially beyond 24 h. ACNFS is also shown to be particularly skilful compared to a climatologic state for forecasts up to 102 h. Modeled ice drift velocity is compared to observed buoy data from the International Arctic Buoy Programme. A seasonal bias is shown where ACNFS is slower than IABP velocity in the summer months and faster in the winter months. In February 2015, ACNFS began to assimilate a blended ice concentration derived from Advanced Microwave Scanning Radiometer 2 (AMSR2) and the Interactive Multisensor Snow and Ice Mapping System (IMS). Preliminary results show that assimilating AMSR2 blended with IMS improves the short-term forecast skill and ice edge location compared to the independently derived National Ice Center Ice Edge product.

Using High Frequency Passive Microwave, A-train, and TRMM Data to Evaluate Hydrometer Structure in the NASA GEOS-5 Data Assimilation System

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Robertson, Franklin; Bacmeister, Julio; Bosilovich, Michael; Pittman, Jasna

2007-01-01

Validating water vapor and prognostic condensate in global models remains a challenging research task. Model parameterizations are still subject to a large number of tunable parameters; furthermore, accurate and representative in situ observations are very sparse, and satellite observations historically have significant quantitative uncertainties. Progress on improving cloud / hydrometeor fields in models stands to benefit greatly from the growing inventory ofA-Train data sets. ill the present study we are using a variety of complementary satellite retrievals of hydrometeors to examine condensate produced by the emerging NASA Modem Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications, MERRA, and its associated atmospheric general circulation model GEOS5. Cloud and precipitation are generated by both grid-scale prognostic equations and by the Relaxed Arakawa-Schubert (RAS) diagnostic convective parameterization. The high frequency channels (89 to 183.3 GHz) from AMSU-B and MRS on NOAA polar orbiting satellites are being used to evaluate the climatology and variability of precipitating ice from tropical convective anvils. Vertical hydrometeor structure from the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) and CloudSat radars are used to develop statistics on vertical hydrometeor structure in order to better interpret the extensive high frequency passive microwave climatology. Cloud liquid and ice water path data retrieved from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer, MODIS, are used to investigate relationships between upper level cloudiness and tropical deep convective anvils. Together these data are used to evaluate cloud / ice water path, gross aspects of vertical hydrometeor structure, and the relationship between cloud extent and surface precipitation that the MERRA reanalysis must capture.

Assimilation of Altimeter Data into a Quasigeostrophic Model of the Gulf Stream System. Part 2; Assimilation Results

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Capotondi, Antonietta; Holland, William R.; Malanotte-Rizzoli, Paola

1995-01-01

The improvement in the climatological behavior of a numerical model as a consequence of the assimilation of surface data is investigated. The model used for this study is a quasigeostrophic (QG) model of the Gulf Stream region. The data that have been assimilated are maps of sea surface height that have been obtained as the superposition of sea surface height variability deduced from the Geosat altimeter measurements and a mean field constructed from historical hydrographic data. The method used for assimilating the data is the nudging technique. Nudging has been implemented in such a way as to achieve a high degree of convergence of the surface model fields toward the observations. Comparisons of the assimilation results with available in situ observations show a significant improvement in the degree of realism of the climatological model behavior, with respect to the model in which no data are assimilated. The remaining discrepancies in the model mean circulation seem to be mainly associated with deficiencies in the mean component of the surface data that are assimilated. On the other hand, the possibility of building into the model more realistic eddy characteristics through the assimilation of the surface eddy field proves very successful in driving components of the mean model circulation that are in relatively good agreement with the available observations. Comparisons with current meter time series during a time period partially overlapping the Geosat mission show that the model is able to 'correctly' extrapolate the instantaneous surface eddy signals to depths of approximately 1500 m. The correlation coefficient between current meter and model time series varies from values close to 0.7 in the top 1500 m to values as low as 0.1-0.2 in the deep ocean.

The role of hydrological initial conditions on Atmospheric River floods in the Russian River basin

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cao, Q.; Mehran, A.; Ralph, M.; Cannon, F.; Lettenmaier, D. P.

2017-12-01

A body of work over the last decade or so has demonstrated that most major floods along the U.S. West Coast are attributable to Atmospheric Rivers (ARs). Antecedent hydrological conditions play an important part in the natural links between precipitation and floods, and this is especially the case in the Pacific Coastal region where precipitation is strongly winter-dominant, and many potentially flood-inducing events occur relatively early in the wet season. The Russian River Basin has these characteristics, the result of which is mostly dry soils at the onset of the fall precipitation season. There is therefore a tradeoff in terms of flood potential between the strength of AR events, and the time history of previous precipitation that has begun to wet soils and raise local water tables. In order to examine flood responses associated with varying precursor hydrological conditions, we first constructed a data set of AR events that were coincident with Peaks Over Threshold (POT) extreme discharge events at selected USGS stream gauges throughout the Russian River basin. We investigated the role of antecedent soil moisture and water table conditions on historical AR flooding, initially using an exploratory data analysis approach. We then implemented the Distributed Hydrology-Soil-Vegetation Model (DHSVM) over the entire basin and conducted modeling experiments for each of the POT events under climatological and extreme antecedent conditions. We reconstructed climatological soil moisture by assimilating in situ observations into long-term soil moisture simulations from the UCLA Western U.S. Drought Monitoring System. We explore an envelope of frequency distributions of floods given a range of AR-related extreme precipitation and various initial hydrologic conditions, which eventually should have implications for flood management decision-making.

Sensitivity of Historical Simulation of the Permafrost to Different Atmospheric Forcing Data Sets from 1979 to 2009

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Guo, Donglin; Wang, Huijun; Wang, Aihui

2017-11-01

Numerical simulation is of great importance to the investigation of changes in frozen ground on large spatial and long temporal scales. Previous studies have focused on the impacts of improvements in the model for the simulation of frozen ground. Here the sensitivities of permafrost simulation to different atmospheric forcing data sets are examined using the Community Land Model, version 4.5 (CLM4.5), in combination with three sets of newly developed and reanalysis-based atmospheric forcing data sets (NOAA Climate Forecast System Reanalysis (CFSR), European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts Re-Analysis Interim (ERA-I), and NASA Modern Era Retrospective-Analysis for Research and Applications (MERRA)). All three simulations were run from 1979 to 2009 at a resolution of 0.5° × 0.5° and validated with what is considered to be the best available permafrost observations (soil temperature, active layer thickness, and permafrost extent). Results show that the use of reanalysis-based atmospheric forcing data set reproduces the variations in soil temperature and active layer thickness but produces evident biases in their climatologies. Overall, the simulations based on the CFSR and ERA-I data sets give more reasonable results than the simulation based on the MERRA data set, particularly for the present-day permafrost extent and the change in active layer thickness. The three simulations produce ranges for the present-day climatology (permafrost area: 11.31-13.57 × 106 km2; active layer thickness: 1.10-1.26 m) and for recent changes (permafrost area: -5.8% to -9.0%; active layer thickness: 9.9%-20.2%). The differences in air temperature increase, snow depth, and permafrost thermal conditions in these simulations contribute to the differences in simulated results.

Using Multispectral False Color Imaging to Characterize Tropical Cyclone Structure and Environment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cossuth, J.; Bankert, R.; Richardson, K.; Surratt, M. L.

2016-12-01

The Naval Research Laboratory's (NRL) tropical cyclone (TC) web page (http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/TC.html) has provided nearly two decades of near real-time access to TC-centric images and products by TC forecasters and enthusiasts around the world. Particularly, microwave imager and sounder information that is featured on this site provides crucial internal storm structure information by allowing users to perceive hydrometeor structure, providing key details beyond cloud top information provided by visible and infrared channels. Towards improving TC analysis techniques and helping advance the utility of the NRL TC webpage resource, new research efforts are presented. This work demonstrates results as well as the methodology used to develop new automated, objective satellite-based TC structure and intensity guidance and enhanced data fusion imagery products that aim to bolster and streamline TC forecast operations. This presentation focuses on the creation and interpretation of false color RGB composite imagery that leverages the different emissive and scattering properties of atmospheric ice, liquid, and vapor water as well as ocean surface roughness as seen by microwave radiometers. Specifically, a combination of near-realtime data and a standardized digital database of global TCs in microwave imagery from 1987-2012 is employed as a climatology of TC structures. The broad range of TC structures, from pinhole eyes through multiple eyewall configurations, is characterized as resolved by passive microwave sensors. The extraction of these characteristic features from historical data also lends itself to statistical analysis. For example, histograms of brightness temperature distributions allows a rigorous examination of how structural features are conveyed in image products, allowing a better representation of colors and breakpoints as they relate to physical features. Such climatological work also suggests steps to better inform the near-real time application of upcoming satellite datasets to TC analyses.

Assessing a Tornado Climatology from Global Tornado Intensity Distributions.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Feuerstein, Bernold; Dotzek, Nikolai; Grieser, Jürgen

2005-02-01

Recent work demonstrated that the shape of tornado intensity distributions from various regions worldwide is well described by Weibull functions. This statistical modeling revealed a strong correlation between the fit parameters c for shape and b for scale regardless of the data source. In the present work it is shown that the quality of the Weibull fits is optimized if only tornado reports of F1 and higher intensity are used and that the c-b correlation does indeed reflect a universal feature of the observed tornado intensity distributions. For regions with likely supercell tornado dominance, this feature is the number ratio of F4 to F3 tornado reports R(F4/F3) = 0.238. The c-b diagram for the Weibull shape and scale parameters is used as a climatological chart, which allows different types of tornado climatology to be distinguished, presumably arising from supercell versus nonsupercell tornadogenesis. Assuming temporal invariance of the climatology and using a detection efficiency function for tornado observations, a stationary climatological probability distribution from large tornado records (U.S. decadal data 1950-99) is extracted. This can be used for risk assessment, comparative studies on tornado intensity distributions worldwide, and estimates of the degree of underreporting for areas with poor databases. For the 1990s U.S. data, a likely tornado underreporting of the weak events (F0, F1) by a factor of 2 can be diagnosed, as well as asymptotic climatological c,b values of c = 1.79 and b = 2.13, to which a convergence in the 1950-99 U.S. decadal data is verified.

Identification and climatology of cut-off lows near the tropopause.

PubMed

Nieto, R; Sprenger, M; Wernli, H; Trigo, R M; Gimeno, L

2008-12-01

Cut-off low pressure systems (COLs) are defined as closed lows in the upper troposphere that have become completely detached from the main westerly current. These slow-moving systems often affect the weather conditions at the earth's surface and also work as a mechanism of mass transfer between the stratosphere and the troposphere, playing a significant role in the net flow of tropospheric ozone. In the first part of this work we provide a comprehensive summary of results obtained in previous studies of COLs. Following this, we present three long-term climatologies of COLs. The first two climatologies are based on the conceptual model of a COL, using European Centre for Medium-range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) analyses (1958-2002) and National Centers for Environmental Prediction-National Center for Atmospheric Research (1948-2006) reanalysis data sets. The third climatology uses a different method of detection, which is based on using potential vorticity as the physical parameter of diagnosis. This approach was applied only to the ECMWF reanalysis data. The final part of the paper is devoted to comparing results obtained by these different climatologies in terms of areas of preferential occurrence, life span, and seasonal cycle. Despite some key differences, the three climatologies agree in terms of the main areas of COL occurrence, namely (1) southwestern Europe, (2) the eastern north Pacific coast, and (3) the north China-Siberian region. However, it is also shown that the detection of these areas of main COL occurrence, as obtained using the potential vorticity approach, depends on the level of isentropic analysis used.

Temporal variations of NDVI and correlations between NDVI and hydro-climatological variables at Lake Baiyangdian, China.

PubMed

Wang, Fei; Wang, Xuan; Zhao, Ying; Yang, Zhifeng

2014-09-01

In this paper, correlations between vegetation dynamics (represented by the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI)) and hydro-climatological factors were systematically studied in Lake Baiyangdian during the period from April 1998 to July 2008. Six hydro-climatological variables including lake volume, water level, air temperature, precipitation, evaporation, and sunshine duration were used, as well as extracted NDVI series data representing vegetation dynamics. Mann-Kendall tests were used to detect trends in NDVI and hydro-climatological variation, and a Bayesian information criterion method was used to detect their abrupt changes. A redundancy analysis (RDA) was used to determine the major hydro-climatological factors contributing to NDVI variation at monthly, seasonal, and yearly scales. The results were as follows: (1) the trend analysis revealed that only sunshine duration significantly increased over the study period, with an inter-annual increase of 3.6 h/year (p < 0.01), whereas inter-annual NDVI trends were negligible; (2) the abrupt change detection showed that a major hydro-climatological change occurred in 2004, when abrupt changes occurred in lake volume, water level, and sunlight duration; and (3) the RDA showed that evaporation and temperature were highly correlated with monthly changes in NDVI. At larger time scales, however, water level and lake volume gradually became more important than evaporation and precipitation in terms of their influence on NDVI. These results suggest that water availability is the most important factor in vegetation restoration. In this paper, we recommend a practical strategy for lake ecosystem restoration that takes into account changes in NDVI.

A new global interior ocean mapped climatology: the 1° × 1° GLODAP version 2

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lauvset, Siv K.; Key, Robert M.; Olsen, Are; van Heuven, Steven; Velo, Anton; Lin, Xiaohua; Schirnick, Carsten; Kozyr, Alex; Tanhua, Toste; Hoppema, Mario; Jutterström, Sara; Steinfeldt, Reiner; Jeansson, Emil; Ishii, Masao; Perez, Fiz F.; Suzuki, Toru; Watelet, Sylvain

2016-08-01

We present a mapped climatology (GLODAPv2.2016b) of ocean biogeochemical variables based on the new GLODAP version 2 data product (Olsen et al., 2016; Key et al., 2015), which covers all ocean basins over the years 1972 to 2013. The quality-controlled and internally consistent GLODAPv2 was used to create global 1° × 1° mapped climatologies of salinity, temperature, oxygen, nitrate, phosphate, silicate, total dissolved inorganic carbon (TCO2), total alkalinity (TAlk), pH, and CaCO3 saturation states using the Data-Interpolating Variational Analysis (DIVA) mapping method. Improving on maps based on an earlier but similar dataset, GLODAPv1.1, this climatology also covers the Arctic Ocean. Climatologies were created for 33 standard depth surfaces. The conceivably confounding temporal trends in TCO2 and pH due to anthropogenic influence were removed prior to mapping by normalizing these data to the year 2002 using first-order calculations of anthropogenic carbon accumulation rates. We additionally provide maps of accumulated anthropogenic carbon in the year 2002 and of preindustrial TCO2. For all parameters, all data from the full 1972-2013 period were used, including data that did not receive full secondary quality control. The GLODAPv2.2016b global 1° × 1° mapped climatologies, including error fields and ancillary information, are available at the GLODAPv2 web page at the Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis Center (CDIAC; doi:10.3334/CDIAC/OTG.NDP093_GLODAPv2).

The collaborative historical African rainfall model: description and evaluation

USGS Publications Warehouse

Funk, Christopher C.; Michaelsen, Joel C.; Verdin, James P.; Artan, Guleid A.; Husak, Gregory; Senay, Gabriel B.; Gadain, Hussein; Magadazire, Tamuka

2003-01-01

In Africa the variability of rainfall in space and time is high, and the general availability of historical gauge data is low. This makes many food security and hydrologic preparedness activities difficult. In order to help overcome this limitation, we have created the Collaborative Historical African Rainfall Model (CHARM). CHARM combines three sources of information: climatologically aided interpolated (CAI) rainfall grids (monthly/0.5° ), National Centers for Environmental Prediction reanalysis precipitation fields (daily/1.875° ) and orographic enhancement estimates (daily/0.1° ). The first set of weights scales the daily reanalysis precipitation fields to match the gridded CAI monthly rainfall time series. This produces data with a daily/0.5° resolution. A diagnostic model of orographic precipitation, VDELB—based on the dot-product of the surface wind V and terrain gradient (DEL) and atmospheric buoyancy B—is then used to estimate the precipitation enhancement produced by complex terrain. Although the data are produced on 0.1° grids to facilitate integration with satellite-based rainfall estimates, the ‘true’ resolution of the data will be less than this value, and varies with station density, topography, and precipitation dynamics. The CHARM is best suited, therefore, to applications that integrate rainfall or rainfall-driven model results over large regions. The CHARM time series is compared with three independent datasets: dekadal satellite-based rainfall estimates across the continent, dekadal interpolated gauge data in Mali, and daily interpolated gauge data in western Kenya. These comparisons suggest reasonable accuracies (standard errors of about half a standard deviation) when data are aggregated to regional scales, even at daily time steps. Thus constrained, numerical weather prediction precipitation fields do a reasonable job of representing large-scale diurnal variations.

Gene movement and genetic association with regional climate gradients in California valley oak (Quercus lobata Née) in the face of climate change

USGS Publications Warehouse

Sork, Victoria L.; Davis, Frank W.; Westfall, Robert; Flint, Alan L.; Ikegami, Makihiko; Wang, Hongfang; Grivet, Delphine

2010-01-01

Rapid climate change jeopardizes tree populations by shifting current climate zones. To avoid extinction, tree populations must tolerate, adapt, or migrate. Here we investigate geographic patterns of genetic variation in valley oak, Quercus lobata N??e, to assess how underlying genetic structure of populations might influence this species' ability to survive climate change. First, to understand how genetic lineages shape spatial genetic patterns, we examine historical patterns of colonization. Second, we examine the correlation between multivariate nuclear genetic variation and climatic variation. Third, to illustrate how geographic genetic variation could interact with regional patterns of 21st Century climate change, we produce region-specific bioclimatic distributions of valley oak using Maximum Entropy (MAXENT) models based on downscaled historical (1971-2000) and future (2070-2100) climate grids. Future climatologies are based on a moderate-high (A2) carbon emission scenario and two different global climate models. Chloroplast markers indicate historical range-wide connectivity via colonization, especially in the north. Multivariate nuclear genotypes show a strong association with climate variation that provides opportunity for local adaptation to the conditions within their climatic envelope. Comparison of regional current and projected patterns of climate suitability indicates that valley oaks grow in distinctly different climate conditions in different parts of their range. Our models predict widely different regional outcomes from local displacement of a few kilometres to hundreds of kilometres. We conclude that the relative importance of migration, adaptation, and tolerance are likely to vary widely for populations among regions, and that late 21st Century conditions could lead to regional extinctions. ?? 2010 Blackwell Publishing Ltd.

The Radiative Forcing Model Intercomparison Project (RFMIP): Assessment and characterization of forcing to enable feedback studies

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pincus, R.; Stevens, B. B.; Forster, P.; Collins, W.; Ramaswamy, V.

2014-12-01

The Radiative Forcing Model Intercomparison Project (RFMIP): Assessment and characterization of forcing to enable feedback studies An enormous amount of attention has been paid to the diversity of responses in the CMIP and other multi-model ensembles. This diversity is normally interpreted as a distribution in climate sensitivity driven by some distribution of feedback mechanisms. Identification of these feedbacks relies on precise identification of the forcing to which each model is subject, including distinguishing true error from model diversity. The Radiative Forcing Model Intercomparison Project (RFMIP) aims to disentangle the role of forcing from model sensitivity as determinants of varying climate model response by carefully characterizing the radiative forcing to which such models are subject and by coordinating experiments in which it is specified. RFMIP consists of four activities: 1) An assessment of accuracy in flux and forcing calculations for greenhouse gases under past, present, and future climates, using off-line radiative transfer calculations in specified atmospheres with climate model parameterizations and reference models 2) Characterization and assessment of model-specific historical forcing by anthropogenic aerosols, based on coordinated diagnostic output from climate models and off-line radiative transfer calculations with reference models 3) Characterization of model-specific effective radiative forcing, including contributions of model climatology and rapid adjustments, using coordinated climate model integrations and off-line radiative transfer calculations with a single fast model 4) Assessment of climate model response to precisely-characterized radiative forcing over the historical record, including efforts to infer true historical forcing from patterns of response, by direct specification of non-greenhouse-gas forcing in a series of coordinated climate model integrations This talk discusses the rationale for RFMIP, provides an overview of the four activities, and presents preliminary motivating results.

Hydrometeorological extremes derived from taxation records for south-eastern Moravia, Czech Republic, 1751-1900 AD

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Brázdil, R.; Chromá, K.; Valášek, H.; Dolák, L.

2012-03-01

Historical written records associated with tax relief at ten estates located in south-eastern Moravia (Czech Republic) are used for the study of hydrometeorological extremes and their impacts during the period 1751-1900 AD. At the time, the taxation system in Moravia allowed farmers to request tax relief if their crop yields had been negatively affected by hydrological and meteorological extremes. The documentation involved contains information about the type of extreme event and the date of its occurrence, while the impact on crops may often be derived. A total of 175 extreme events resulting in some kind of damage are documented for 1751-1900, with the highest concentration between 1811 and 1860 (74.9% of all events analysed). The nature of events leading to damage (of a possible 272 types) include hailstorm (25.7%), torrential rain (21.7%), flood (21.0%), followed by thunderstorm, flash flood, late frost and windstorm. The four most outstanding events, affecting the highest number of settlements, were thunderstorms with hailstorms (25 June 1825, 20 May 1847 and 29 June 1890) and flooding of the River Morava (mid-June 1847). Hydrometeorological extremes in the 1816-1855 period are compared with those occurring during the recent 1961-2000 period. The results obtained are inevitably influenced by uncertainties related to taxation records, such as their temporal and spatial incompleteness, the limits of the period of outside agricultural work (i.e. mainly May-August) and the purpose for which they were originally collected (primarily tax alleviation, i.e. information about hydrometeorological extremes was of secondary importance). Taxation records constitute an important source of data for historical climatology and historical hydrology and have a great potential for use in many European countries.

Hydrometeorological extremes and their impacts, as derived from taxation records for south-eastern Moravia, Czech Republic, AD 1751-1900

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Brázdil, R.; Chromá, K.; Valášek, H.; Dolák, L.

2011-12-01

Historical written records associated with tax relief at ten estates located in south-eastern Moravia (Czech Republic) are used for the study of hydrometeorological extremes and their impacts during the period AD 1751-1900. At the time, the taxation system in Moravia allowed farmers to request tax relief if their crop yields had been negatively affected by hydrological and meteorological extremes. The documentation involved contains information about the type of extreme event and the date of its occurrence, while the impact on crops may often be derived. A total of 175 extreme events resulting in some kind of damage is documented for 1751-1900, with the highest concentration between 1811 and 1860 (74.9% of all events analysed). The nature of events leading to damage (of a possible 272 types) include hailstorm (25.7%), torrential rain (21.7%), and flood (21.0%), followed by thunderstorm, flash flood, late frost and windstorm. The four most outstanding events, affecting the highest number of settlements, were thunderstorms with hailstorms (25 June 1825, 20 May 1847 and 29 June 1890) and flooding of the River Morava (mid-June 1847). Hydrometeorological extremes in the 1816-1855 period are compared with those occurring during the recent 1961-2000 period. The results obtained are inevitably influenced by uncertainties related to taxation records, such as their temporal and spatial incompleteness, the limits of the period of outside agricultural work (i.e. mainly May-August) and the purpose for which they were originally collected (primarily tax alleviation, i.e. information about hydrometeorological extremes was of secondary importance). Taxation records constitute an important source of data for historical climatology and historical hydrology and have a great potential for use in many European countries.

Aggregating Hydrometeorological Data from International Monitoring Networks Across Earth's Largest Lake System to Quantify Uncertainty in Historical Water Budget Records, Improve Regional Water Budget Projections, and Differentiate Drivers Behind a Recent Record-Setting Surge in Water Levels

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gronewold, A.; Bruxer, J.; Smith, J.; Hunter, T.; Fortin, V.; Clites, A. H.; Durnford, D.; Qian, S.; Seglenieks, F.

2015-12-01

Resolving and projecting the water budget of the North American Great Lakes basin (Earth's largest lake system) requires aggregation of data from a complex array of in situ monitoring and remote sensing products that cross an international border (leading to potential sources of bias and other inconsistencies), and are relatively sparse over the surfaces of the lakes themselves. Data scarcity over the surfaces of the lakes is a particularly significant problem because, unlike Earth's other large freshwater basins, the Great Lakes basin water budget is (on annual scales) comprised of relatively equal contributions from runoff, over-lake precipitation, and over-lake evaporation. Consequently, understanding drivers behind changes in regional water storage and water levels requires a data management framework that can reconcile uncertainties associated with data scarcity and bias, and propagate those uncertainties into regional water budget projections and historical records. Here, we assess the development of a historical hydrometeorological database for the entire Great Lakes basin with records dating back to the late 1800s, and describe improvements that are specifically intended to differentiate hydrological, climatological, and anthropogenic drivers behind recent extreme changes in Great Lakes water levels. Our assessment includes a detailed analysis of the extent to which extreme cold winters in central North America in 2013-2014 (caused by the anomalous meridional upper air flow - commonly referred to in the public media as the "polar vortex" phenomenon) altered the thermal and hydrologic regimes of the Great Lakes and led to a record setting surge in water levels between January 2014 and December 2015.

Gene movement and genetic association with regional climate gradients in California valley oak (Quercus lobata Née) in the face of climate change.

PubMed

Sork, Victoria L; Davis, Frank W; Westfall, Robert; Flint, Alan; Ikegami, Makihiko; Wang, Hongfang; Grivet, Delphine

2010-09-01

Rapid climate change jeopardizes tree populations by shifting current climate zones. To avoid extinction, tree populations must tolerate, adapt, or migrate. Here we investigate geographic patterns of genetic variation in valley oak, Quercus lobata Née, to assess how underlying genetic structure of populations might influence this species' ability to survive climate change. First, to understand how genetic lineages shape spatial genetic patterns, we examine historical patterns of colonization. Second, we examine the correlation between multivariate nuclear genetic variation and climatic variation. Third, to illustrate how geographic genetic variation could interact with regional patterns of 21st Century climate change, we produce region-specific bioclimatic distributions of valley oak using Maximum Entropy (MAXENT) models based on downscaled historical (1971-2000) and future (2070-2100) climate grids. Future climatologies are based on a moderate-high (A2) carbon emission scenario and two different global climate models. Chloroplast markers indicate historical range-wide connectivity via colonization, especially in the north. Multivariate nuclear genotypes show a strong association with climate variation that provides opportunity for local adaptation to the conditions within their climatic envelope. Comparison of regional current and projected patterns of climate suitability indicates that valley oaks grow in distinctly different climate conditions in different parts of their range. Our models predict widely different regional outcomes from local displacement of a few kilometres to hundreds of kilometres. We conclude that the relative importance of migration, adaptation, and tolerance are likely to vary widely for populations among regions, and that late 21st Century conditions could lead to regional extinctions.

Olson's Major World Ecosystem Complexes Ranked by Carbon in Live Vegetation: An Updated Database Using the GLC2000 Land Cover Product (NDP-017b, a 2006 update of the original 1985 and 2001 data file))

DOE Data Explorer

Gibbs, Holly K. [Center for Sustainability and the Global Environment, University of Wisconsin, Madison, WI (United States)

2006-01-01

In the 1980s, Olson et al. developed a data base and corresponding map following more than 20 years of field investigations, consultations, and analyses of published literature. The original data characterize the use and vegetative cover of the Earth's land surface with a 0.5° by 0.5° grid. The purpose of these world-ecosystem-complex data and the accompanying map were to provide a current reference base for interpreting the role of vegetation in the global cycling of CO2 and other gases and a basis for improved estimates of vegetation and soil carbon, of natural exchanges of CO2, and of net historic shifts of carbon between the biosphere and the atmosphere. These data were widely used and cited in carbon cycle research. This updated database extends the methodology of Olson et al. to more contemporary land cover conditions of the Global Land Cover Database (GLC2000). The GLC2000 data were developed using remotely sensed imagery acquired in 2000. The updated data are presented in a GIS format and include estimates of mean and maximum carbon density values.

The use of normalized climatological anomalies to rank precipitation events in the Iberian Peninsula

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ramos, Alexandre M.; Trigo, Ricardo M.; Liberato, Margarida L. R.

2013-04-01

Extreme precipitation events in the Iberian Peninsula during winter months have major socio-economic impacts such as flooding, landslides, extensive property damage and life losses, and are usually associated to deep low pressure systems with Atlantic origin, although some extreme events in summer/autumn months are fed by the Mediterranean. Quite often these events are evaluated on a casuistic base and with relatively few stations. An objective method for ranking daily precipitation events is presented based on the extensive use of the most comprehensive database of daily precipitation available for the Iberian Peninsula (IB02) and spanning from 1950 to 2003, with a resolution of 0.2° (approximately 16 x 22 km at latitude 40°N), for a total of 1673 pixels. This database is based on a dense network of rain gauges, combining two national data sets, 'Spain02' for peninsular Spain and Balearic islands (Herrera et al., 2012), and 'PT02' for mainland Portugal (Belo-Pereira et al., 2011), with a total of more than two thousand stations over Spain and four hundred stations over Portugal, all quality-controlled and homogenized. The daily precipitation data from 1950 to 2003 are compared with a 30-year (1961-90) precipitation climatology to achieve a daily normalized departure from the climatology. The magnitude of an event is given daily by an index that is obtained after multiplying 1) the area (in percentage) that has precipitation anomalies above two standard deviations by 2) the mean values of these anomalies over this area. With this criterion we are able to evaluate not only the spatial extent of the precipitation events but also their spatially integrated intensity. In addition, to stress out the hydrological responses to precipitation, rankings taking into account the sum of the normalized anomalies over different time periods (3 days, 5 days and 10 days) were also computed. Here different precipitation rankings will be presented considering the entire Iberian Peninsula but also most major river basins in the Iberian Peninsula (Minho, Douro, Tejo, Guadiana, Guadalquivir and Ebro). A selection of historical events will allow a quantitative evaluation both of the method and of the meteorological conditions in different regions of the Iberian Peninsula of the most anomalous events. This work was partially supported by FEDER (Fundo Europeu de Desenvolvimento Regional) funds through the COMPETE (Programa Operacional Factores de Competitividade) and by national funds through FCT (Fundação para a Ciência e a Tecnologia, Portugal) through project STORMEx FCOMP-01-0124-FEDER-019524 (PTDC/AAC-CLI/121339/2010). Belo-Pereira, M., E. Dutra, and P. Viterbo (2011) Evaluation of global precipitation data sets over the Iberian Peninsula, J. Geophys. Res., 116, D20101, doi:10.1029/2010JD015481. Herrera et. al. (2012) Development and Analysis of a 50 year high-resolution daily gridded precipitation dataset over Spain (Spain02) International Journal of Climatology 32:74-85 DOI: 10.1002/joc.2256.

Holocene climate and cultural evolution in late prehistoric-early historic West Asia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Staubwasser, Michael; Weiss, Harvey

2006-11-01

The precipitation climatology and the underlying climate mechanisms of the eastern Mediterranean, West Asia, and the Indian subcontinent are reviewed, with emphasis on upper and middle tropospheric flow in the subtropics and its steering of precipitation. Holocene climate change of the region is summarized from proxy records. The Indian monsoon weakened during the Holocene over its northernmost region, the Ganges and Indus catchments and the western Arabian Sea. Southern regions, the Indian Peninsula, do not show a reduction, but an increase of summer monsoon rain across the Holocene. The long-term trend towards drier conditions in the eastern Mediterranean can be linked to a regionally complex monsoon evolution. Abrupt climate change events, such as the widespread droughts around 8200, 5200 and 4200 cal yr BP, are suggested to be the result of altered subtropical upper-level flow over the eastern Mediterranean and Asia. The abrupt climate change events of the Holocene radically altered precipitation, fundamental for cereal agriculture, across the expanse of late prehistoric-early historic cultures known from the archaeological record in these regions. Social adaptations to reduced agro-production, in both dry-farming and irrigation agriculture regions, are visible in the archaeological record during each abrupt climate change event in West Asia. Chronological refinement, in both the paleoclimate and archaeological records, and transfer functions for both precipitation and agro-production are needed to understand precisely the evident causal linkages.

Teaching a Model-based Climatology Using Energy Balance Simulation.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Unwin, David

1981-01-01

After outlining the difficulties of teaching climatology within an undergraduate geography curriculum, the author describes and evaluates the use of a computer assisted simulation to model surface energy balance and the effects of land use changes on local climate. (AM)

Quantifying the Bering Strait Oceanic Fluxes and their Impacts on Sea-Ice and Water Properties in the Chukchi and Beaufort Seas and Western Arctic Ocean for 2013-2014

DTIC Science & Technology

2016-07-27

has provided climatologies for past and on-going Arctic modeling studies [Woodgate et al., 2005b; Clement-Kinney et al., 2014; Nguyen et al., 2016... climatology of ~ 0.8 Sv. In contrast to previous results which suggested this was previously 1/3rd due to local wind forcing [Woodgate et al., 2012], we...the 1990s climatology of ~ 2500km3/yr. This is a ~ 40% increase in freshwater flux since 2001, and is mostly (90%) due to increased flow, although

Seattle Tacoma IAP, Washington. Revised Uniform Summary of Surface Weather Observations (RUSSWO). Parts A-F.

DTIC Science & Technology

1982-06-21

to’loo s or S Pow Anl OUXO111 (3 ( F. . ,LCAAL CLIMATOLOGY BRANCH 2 o. AFEtAC SURFACE WINDS A’- wATHER SERVICE/MAC PERCENTAGE FREQUENCY OF WIND...wO.Ts of T@s Fa am cowun 1 --------------------------- --- j rGLr8AL CLIMATOLOGY BRANCH V R U .JSAFETAC CEILING VE S SVISIBILITY2 Ali, wATHER SERVICE...OL A) wco e , s . , .I-, o ,,oj.’il -- / [ ___ ____ ___ ____ ___, PLCBAL CLIMATOLOGY BRANCH V RU )S F E7AC CEILING VESU ISIBIITY2 A-’ wATHER SERVICE

Skill of Global Raw and Postprocessed Ensemble Predictions of Rainfall over Northern Tropical Africa

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vogel, Peter; Knippertz, Peter; Fink, Andreas H.; Schlueter, Andreas; Gneiting, Tilmann

2018-04-01

Accumulated precipitation forecasts are of high socioeconomic importance for agriculturally dominated societies in northern tropical Africa. In this study, we analyze the performance of nine operational global ensemble prediction systems (EPSs) relative to climatology-based forecasts for 1 to 5-day accumulated precipitation based on the monsoon seasons 2007-2014 for three regions within northern tropical Africa. To assess the full potential of raw ensemble forecasts across spatial scales, we apply state-of-the-art statistical postprocessing methods in form of Bayesian Model Averaging (BMA) and Ensemble Model Output Statistics (EMOS), and verify against station and spatially aggregated, satellite-based gridded observations. Raw ensemble forecasts are uncalibrated, unreliable, and underperform relative to climatology, independently of region, accumulation time, monsoon season, and ensemble. Differences between raw ensemble and climatological forecasts are large, and partly stem from poor prediction for low precipitation amounts. BMA and EMOS postprocessed forecasts are calibrated, reliable, and strongly improve on the raw ensembles, but - somewhat disappointingly - typically do not outperform climatology. Most EPSs exhibit slight improvements over the period 2007-2014, but overall have little added value compared to climatology. We suspect that the parametrization of convection is a potential cause for the sobering lack of ensemble forecast skill in a region dominated by mesoscale convective systems.

MERIS albedo climatology and its effect on the FRESCO+ O2 A-band cloud retrieval from SCIAMACHY data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Popp, Christoph; Wang, Ping; Brunner, Dominik; Stammes, Piet; Zhou, Yipin

2010-05-01

Accurate cloud information is an important prerequisite for the retrieval of atmospheric trace gases from spaceborne UV/VIS sensors. Errors in the estimated cloud fraction and cloud height (pressure) result in an erroneous air mass factor and thus can lead to inaccuracies in the vertical column densities of the retrieved trace gas. In ESA's TEMIS (Tropospheric Emission Monitoring Internet Service) project, the FRESCO+ (Fast Retrieval Scheme for Clouds from the Oxygen A-band) cloud retrieval is applied to, amongst others, SCIAMACHY (SCanning Imaging Absorption SpectroMeter for Atmospheric CartograpHY) data to determine these quantities. Effective cloud fraction and pressure are inverted by (i) radiative transfer simulations of top-of-atmosphere reflectance based on O2 absorption, single Rayleigh scattering, surface and cloud albedo in three spectral windows covering the O2 A-band and (ii) a subsequent fitting of the simulated to the measured spectrum. However, FRESCO+ relies on a relatively coarse resolution surface albedo climatology (1° x 1°) compiled from GOME (Global Ozone Monitoring Experiment) measurements in the 1990's which introduces several artifacts, e.g. an overestimation of cloud fraction at coastlines or over some mountainous regions. Therefore, we test the substitution of the GOME climatology with a new land surface albedo climatology compiled for every month from MEdium Resolution Imaging Spectrometer (MERIS) Albedomap data (0.05° x 0.05°) covering the period January 2003 to October 2006. The MERIS channels at 754nm and 775nm are located spectrally close to the corresponding GOME channels (758nm and 772nm) on both sides of the O2 A-band. Further, the increased spatial resolution of the MERIS product allows to better account for SCIAMACHY's pixel size of approximately 30x60km. The aim of this study is to describe and assess (i) the compilation and quality of the MERIS climatology (ii) the differences to the GOME climatology, and (iii) possible enhancements of the SCIAMACHY cloud retrieval after integrating the MERIS climatology into FRESCO+. First results indicate that in areas where FRESCO+ is overestimating cloud fraction using the GOME climatology, MERIS generally reveals higher albedo values which in turn will lead to lower cloud fractions, e.g. at coastlines, some arid or mountainous areas. The differences between the two data sets are also higher in winter than in summer. It can therefore be expected that the new data base with increased spatial resolution improves SCIAMACHY cloud retrieval with FRESCO+. The most limiting factors for the compilation of the MERIS climatology can be assigned to inappropriate snow cover masking and occasionally unfavorable illumination conditions in high northern latitudes during winter.

Content-Aware DataGuide with Incremental Index Update using Frequently Used Paths

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sharma, A. K.; Duhan, Neelam; Khattar, Priyanka

2010-11-01

Size of the WWW is increasing day by day. Due to the absence of structured data on the Web, it becomes very difficult for information retrieval tools to fully utilize the Web information. As a solution to this problem, XML pages come into play, which provide structural information to the users to some extent. Without efficient indexes, query processing can be quite inefficient due to an exhaustive traversal on XML data. In this paper an improved content-centric approach of Content-Aware DataGuide, which is an indexing technique for XML databases, is being proposed that uses frequently used paths from historical query logs to improve query performance. The index can be updated incrementally according to the changes in query workload and thus, the overhead of reconstruction can be minimized. Frequently used paths are extracted using any Sequential Pattern mining algorithm on subsequent queries in the query workload. After this, the data structures are incrementally updated. This indexing technique proves to be efficient as partial matching queries can be executed efficiently and users can now get the more relevant documents in results.

Earthquakes in the Central United States, 1699-2010

USGS Publications Warehouse

Dart, Richard L.; Volpi, Christina M.

2010-01-01

This publication is an update of an earlier report, U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) Geologic Investigation I-2812 by Wheeler and others (2003), titled ?Earthquakes in the Central United States-1699-2002.? Like the original poster, the center of the updated poster is a map showing the pattern of earthquake locations in the most seismically active part of the central United States. Arrayed around the map are short explanatory texts and graphics, which describe the distribution of historical earthquakes and the effects of the most notable of them. The updated poster contains additional, post 2002, earthquake data. These are 38 earthquakes covering the time interval from January 2003 to June 2010, including the Mount Carmel, Illinois, earthquake of 2008. The USGS Preliminary Determination of Epicenters (PDE) was the source of these additional data. Like the I-2812 poster, this poster was prepared for a nontechnical audience and designed to inform the general public as to the widespread occurrence of felt and damaging earthquakes in the Central United States. Accordingly, the poster should not be used to assess earthquake hazard in small areas or at individual locations.

Study on application of dynamic monitoring of land use based on mobile GIS technology

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tian, Jingyi; Chu, Jian; Guo, Jianxing; Wang, Lixin

2006-10-01

The land use dynamic monitoring is an important mean to maintain the real-time update of the land use data. Mobile GIS technology integrates GIS, GPS and Internet. It can update the historic al data in real time with site-collected data and realize the data update in large scale with high precision. The Monitoring methods on the land use change data with the mobile GIS technology were discussed. Mobile terminal of mobile GIS has self-developed for this study with GPS-25 OEM and notebook computer. The RTD (real-time difference) operation mode is selected. Mobile GIS system of dynamic monitoring of land use have developed with Visual C++ as operation platform, MapObjects control as graphic platform and MSCmm control as communication platform, which realizes organic integration of GPS, GPRS and GIS. This system has such following basic functions as data processing, graphic display, graphic editing, attribute query and navigation. Qinhuangdao city was selected as the experiential area. Shown by the study result, the mobile GIS integration system of dynamic monitoring of land use developed by this study has practical application value.

Lunar architecture and urbanism, 2nd ed

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Sherwood, Brent

2005-01-01

As the space population grows over time, persistent issues of human urbanism will eclipse within a historically short time the technical challenges of space exploration that dominate current efforts. Although urban design teams will have to integrate many new disciplines into their already renaissance array of expertise, doing so will enable them to adapt ancient, proven solutions to opportunities afforded by expanding urbanism offworld. This paper updates the author's original 1988 treatment of the subject.

17 CFR 240.15c3-1f - Optional market and credit risk requirements for OTC derivatives dealers (Appendix F to 17 CFR...

Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

2014-04-01

... less than six months. Historical data sets must be updated at least every three months and reassessed... model which at a minimum must adhere to the criteria set forth in paragraph (e) of this Appendix F. The... theoretical pricing model contains the minimum pricing factors set forth in Appendix A (§ 240.15c3-1a). The...

An Evaluation of Individual Empowerment and Self-Efficacy on Sexual Harrassment in the Work Environment

DTIC Science & Technology

1993-09-01

Air Force Regulation 30-2, which was updated in July 1992. Since the research is focused on Air Force personnel, the researchers have decided to use...Opportunity Commission ( EEOC ) guidance, some progress has been achieved in defining and characterizing harassment (Gruber, 1992:448; Englander, 1992:17; Van...evolution of sexual harassment through changing historical attitudes, definition refinement as a result of judicial and EEOC rulings, and relevant legal

Report of the IAU Working Group on Cartographic Coordinates and Rotational Elements: 2015

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Archinal, B. A.; Acton, C. H.; A'Hearn, M. F.; Conrad, A.; Consolmagno, G. J.; Duxbury, T.; Hestroffer, D.; Hilton, J. L.; Kirk, R. L.; Klioner, S. A.; McCarthy, D.; Meech, K.; Oberst, J.; Ping, J.; Seidelmann, P. K.; Tholen, D. J.; Thomas, P. C.; Williams, I. P.

2018-03-01

This report continues the practice where the IAU Working Group on Cartographic Coordinates and Rotational Elements revises recommendations regarding those topics for the planets, satellites, minor planets, and comets approximately every 3 years. The Working Group has now become a "functional working group" of the IAU, and its membership is open to anyone interested in participating. We describe the procedure for submitting questions about the recommendations given here or the application of these recommendations for creating a new or updated coordinate system for a given body. Regarding body orientation, the following bodies have been updated: Mercury, based on MESSENGER results; Mars, along with a refined longitude definition; Phobos; Deimos; (1) Ceres; (52) Europa; (243) Ida; (2867) Šteins; Neptune; (134340) Pluto and its satellite Charon; comets 9P/Tempel 1, 19P/Borrelly, 67P/Churyumov-Gerasimenko, and 103P/Hartley 2, noting that such information is valid only between specific epochs. The special challenges related to mapping 67P/Churyumov-Gerasimenko are also discussed. Approximate expressions for the Earth have been removed in order to avoid confusion, and the low precision series expression for the Moon's orientation has been removed. The previously online only recommended orientation model for (4) Vesta is repeated with an explanation of how it was updated. Regarding body shape, text has been included to explain the expected uses of such information, and the relevance of the cited uncertainty information. The size of the Sun has been updated, and notation added that the size and the ellipsoidal axes for the Earth and Jupiter have been recommended by an IAU Resolution. The distinction of a reference radius for a body (here, the Moon and Titan) is made between cartographic uses, and for orthoprojection and geophysical uses. The recommended radius for Mercury has been updated based on MESSENGER results. The recommended radius for Titan is returned to its previous value. Size information has been updated for 13 other Saturnian satellites and added for Aegaeon. The sizes of Pluto and Charon have been updated. Size information has been updated for (1) Ceres and given for (16) Psyche and (52) Europa. The size of (25143) Itokawa has been corrected. In addition, the discussion of terminology for the poles (hemispheres) of small bodies has been modified and a discussion on cardinal directions added. Although they continue to be used for planets and their satellites, it is assumed that the planetographic and planetocentric coordinate system definitions do not apply to small bodies. However, planetocentric and planetodetic latitudes and longitudes may be used on such bodies, following the right-hand rule. We repeat our previous recommendations that planning and efforts be made to make controlled cartographic products; newly recommend that common formulations should be used for orientation and size; continue to recommend that a community consensus be developed for the orientation models of Jupiter and Saturn; newly recommend that historical summaries of the coordinate systems for given bodies should be developed, and point out that for planets and satellites planetographic systems have generally been historically preferred over planetocentric systems, and that in cases when planetographic coordinates have been widely used in the past, there is no obvious advantage to switching to the use of planetocentric coordinates. The Working Group also requests community input on the question submitting process, posting of updates to the Working Group website, and on whether recommendations should be made regarding exoplanet coordinate systems.

Evaluating the Impacts of NASA/SPoRT Daily Greenness Vegetation Fraction on Land Surface Model and Numerical Weather Forecasts

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Bell, Jordan R.; Case, Jonathan L.; LaFontaine, Frank J.; Kumar, Sujay V.

2012-01-01

The NASA Short-term Prediction Research and Transition (SPoRT) Center has developed a Greenness Vegetation Fraction (GVF) dataset, which is updated daily using swaths of Normalized Difference Vegetation Index data from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) data aboard the NASA EOS Aqua and Terra satellites. NASA SPoRT began generating daily real-time GVF composites at 1-km resolution over the Continental United States (CONUS) on 1 June 2010. The purpose of this study is to compare the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) climatology GVF product (currently used in operational weather models) to the SPoRT-MODIS GVF during June to October 2010. The NASA Land Information System (LIS) was employed to study the impacts of the SPoRT-MODIS GVF dataset on a land surface model (LSM) apart from a full numerical weather prediction (NWP) model. For the 2010 warm season, the SPoRT GVF in the western portion of the CONUS was generally higher than the NCEP climatology. The eastern CONUS GVF had variations both above and below the climatology during the period of study. These variations in GVF led to direct impacts on the rates of heating and evaporation from the land surface. In the West, higher latent heat fluxes prevailed, which enhanced the rates of evapotranspiration and soil moisture depletion in the LSM. By late Summer and Autumn, both the average sensible and latent heat fluxes increased in the West as a result of the more rapid soil drying and higher coverage of GVF. The impacts of the SPoRT GVF dataset on NWP was also examined for a single severe weather case study using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model. Two separate coupled LIS/WRF model simulations were made for the 17 July 2010 severe weather event in the Upper Midwest using the NCEP and SPoRT GVFs, with all other model parameters remaining the same. Based on the sensitivity results, regions with higher GVF in the SPoRT model runs had higher evapotranspiration and lower direct surface heating, which typically resulted in lower (higher) predicted 2-m temperatures (2-m dewpoint temperatures). Portions of the Northern Plains states experienced substantial increases in convective available potential energy as a result of the higher SPoRT/MODIS GVFs. These differences produced subtle yet quantifiable differences in the simulated convective precipitation systems for this event.

The seasonal march of the equatorial Pacific upper-ocean and its El Niño variability

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gasparin, Florent; Roemmich, Dean

2017-08-01

Based on two modern data sets, the climatological seasonal march of the upper-ocean is examined in the equatorial Pacific for the period 2004-2014, because of its large contribution to the total variance, its relationship to El Niño, and its unique equatorial wave phenomena. Argo provides a broadscale view of the equatorial Pacific upper-ocean based on subsurface temperature and salinity measurements for the period 2004-2015, and satellite altimetry provides synoptic observations of the sea surface height (SSH) for the period 1993-2015. Using either 11-year (1993-2003/2004-2014) time-series for averaging, the seasonal Rossby waves stands out clearly and eastward intraseasonal Kelvin wave propagation is strong enough in individual years to leave residuals in the 11-year averages, particularly but not exclusively, during El Niño onset years. The agreement of altimetric SSH minus Argo steric height (SH) residuals with GRACE ocean mass estimates confirms the scale-matching of in situ variability with that of satellite observations. Surface layer and subsurface thermohaline variations are both important in determining SH and SSH basin-wide patterns. The SH/SSH October-November maximum in the central-eastern Pacific is primarily due to a downward deflection of the thermocline (∼20 m), causing a warm subsurface anomaly (>1 °C), in response to the phasing of downwelling intraseasonal Kelvin and seasonal Rossby waves. Compared with the climatology, the stronger October-November maximum in the 2004-2014 El Niño composites is due to higher intraseasonal oscillations and interannual variability. Associated with these equatorial wave patterns along the thermocline, the western warm/fresh pool waters move zonally at interannual timescales through zonal wind stress and pressure gradient fluctuations, and cause substantial fresh (up to 0.6 psu) and warm (∼1 °C higher than the climatology) anomalies in the western-central Pacific surface-layer during the El Niño onset year, and of the opposite sign during the termination year. These El Niño-related patterns are then analyzed focusing on the case of the onset of the strong 2015/2016 episode, and are seen to be around two times larger than that in the 2004-2014 El Niño composites. The present work exploits the capabilities of Argo and altimetry to update and improve the description of the physical state of the equatorial Pacific upper-ocean, and provides a benchmark for assessing the accuracy of models in representing equatorial Pacific variability.

Providing Seismotectonic Information to the Public Through Continuously Updated National Earthquake Information Center Products

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bernardino, M. J.; Hayes, G. P.; Dannemann, F.; Benz, H.

2012-12-01

One of the main missions of the United States Geological Survey (USGS) National Earthquake Information Center (NEIC) is the dissemination of information to national and international agencies, scientists, and the general public through various products such as ShakeMap and earthquake summary posters. During the summer of 2012, undergraduate and graduate student interns helped to update and improve our series of regional seismicity posters and regional tectonic summaries. The "Seismicity of the Earth (1900-2007)" poster placed over a century's worth of global seismicity data in the context of plate tectonics, highlighting regions that have experienced great (M+8.0) earthquakes, and the tectonic settings of those events. This endeavor became the basis for a series of more regionalized seismotectonic posters that focus on major subduction zones and their associated seismicity, including the Aleutian and Caribbean arcs. The first round of these posters were inclusive of events through 2007, and were made with the intent of being continually updated. Each poster includes a regional tectonic summary, a seismic hazard map, focal depth cross-sections, and a main map that illustrates the following: the main subduction zone and other physiographic features, seismicity, and rupture zones of historic great earthquakes. Many of the existing regional seismotectonic posters have been updated and new posters highlighting regions of current seismological interest have been created, including the Sumatra and Java arcs, the Middle East region and the Himalayas (all of which are currently in review). These new editions include updated lists of earthquakes, expanded tectonic summaries, updated relative plate motion vectors, and major crustal faults. These posters thus improve upon previous editions that included only brief tectonic discussions of the most prominent features and historic earthquakes, and which did not systematically represent non-plate boundary faults. Regional tectonic summaries provide the public with immediate background information useful for teaching and media related purposes and are an essential component to many NEIC products. As part of the NEIC's earthquake response, rapid earthquake summary posters are created in the hours following a significant global earthquake. These regional tectonic summaries are included in each earthquake summary poster along with a discussion of the event, written by research scientists at the NEIC, often with help from regional experts. Now, through the efforts of this and related studies, event webpages will automatically contain a regional tectonic summary immediately after an event has been posted. These new summaries include information about plate boundary interactions and other associated tectonic elements, trends in seismicity and brief descriptions of significant earthquakes that have occurred in a region. The tectonic summaries for the following regions have been updated as part of this work: South America, the Caribbean, Alaska and the Aleutians, Kuril-Kamchatka, Japan and vicinity, and Central America, with newly created summaries for Sumatra and Java, the Mediterranean, Middle East, and the Himalayas. The NEIC is currently planning to integrate concise stylized maps with each tectonic summary for display on the USGS website.

A CLIMATOLOGY OF WATER BUDGET VARIABLE FOR THE NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES

EPA Science Inventory

A Climatology of Water Budget Variables for the Northeast United States (Leathers and Robinson 1995). Climatic division precipitation and temperature data are used to calculate water budget variables based on the Thornthwaite/Mather climatic water budget methodology. Two water b...

Psychologists conducting Psychotherapy in 2012: current practices and historical trends among Division 29 members.

PubMed

Norcross, John C; Rogan, Jessica D

2013-12-01

This study updates three similar investigations conducted in 1981, 1991, and 2001 on APA Division of Psychotherapy members in order to paint a contemporary portrait of psychologists conducting psychotherapy and to chronicle historical trends among Division 29 members. Four hundred twenty-eight psychologists (43% response) completed a questionnaire in 2012 regarding their demographic characteristics, professional activities, theoretical orientations, employment settings, and career experiences. The results point to an increasingly female and aging membership, which continues to be employed primarily in private practices and universities. Psychodynamic (27%), integrative (25%), and cognitive (17%) orientations continue to prevail. Professional activities have remained quite similar across the past 30 years with the exception of declines in projective testing and growth in neuropsychological and health testing. Training and career satisfactions remain high as well.

On the fall 2010 Enhancements of the Global Precipitation Climatology Centre's Data Sets

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Becker, A. W.; Schneider, U.; Meyer-Christoffer, A.; Ziese, M.; Finger, P.; Rudolf, B.

2010-12-01

Precipitation is meanwhile a top listed parameter on the WMO GCOS list of 44 essential climate variables (ECV). This is easily justified by its crucial role to sustain any form of life on earth as major source of fresh water, its major impact on weather, climate, climate change and related issues of society’s adaption to the latter. Finally its occurrence is highly variable in space and time thus bearing the potential to trigger major flood and draught related disasters. Since its start in 1989 the Global precipitation Climatology Centre (GPCC) performs global analyses of monthly precipitation for the earth’s land-surface on the basis of in-situ measurements. The effort was inaugurated as part of the Global Precipitation Climatology Project of the WMO World Climate Research Program (WCRP). Meanwhile, the data set has continuously grown both in temporal coverage (original start of the evaluation period was 1986), as well as extent and quality of the underlying data base. The number of stations involved in the related data base has approximately doubled in the past 8 years by trespassing the 40, 60 and 80k thresholds in 2002, 2006 and 2010. Core data source of the GPCC analyses are the data from station networks operated by the National Meteorological Services worldwide; data deliveries have been received from ca. 190 countries. The GPCC integrates also other global precipitation data collections (i.e. FAO, CRU and GHCN), as well as regional data sets. Currently the Africa data set from S. Nicholson (Univ. Tallahassee) is integrated. As a result of these efforts the GPCC holds the worldwide largest and most comprehensive collection of precipitation data, which is continuously updated and extended. Due to the high spatial-temporal variability of precipitation, even its global analysis requires this high number of stations to provide for a sufficient density of measurement data on almost any place on the globe. The acquired data sets are pre-checked, reformatted and then imported into a relational data base, where they are archived separately in source specific slots, thus allowing an inter-comparison of data from the different sources. Any time new data sets are imported to the data base the metadata in the input data set are compared to those already available in the data base. In case of discrepancies (e.g. deviating coordinates), external geographical sources of information are utilized to decide whether a correction of the metadata in the data base is required or not, thus resulting in a perpetual improvement of the station meta data. The presentation shall give an account on the four major products derived from the GPCC data base, which are two near real-time ones comprising the precipitation data retrieved from the GTS, and two offline products that allow for hydro-climatological assessments. The real-time products are used for example to calibrate Satellite based precipitation measurements. To illustrate the potential of the offline (Full Data) products we will present an asessment of the strong 2010 La Nina season that has apparently caused severe weather patterns world wide, including the flood disasters in Pakistan and Wuhan, China.

Development and Testing of the New Surface LER Climatology for OMI UV Aerosol Retrievals

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Gupta, Pawan; Torres, Omar; Jethva, Hiren; Ahn, Changwoo

2014-01-01

Ozone Monitoring Instrument (OMI) onboard Aura satellite retrieved aerosols properties using UV part of solar spectrum. The OMI near UV aerosol algorithm (OMAERUV) is a global inversion scheme which retrieves aerosol properties both over ocean and land. The current version of the algorithm makes use of TOMS derived Lambertian Equivalent Reflectance (LER) climatology. A new monthly climatology of surface LER at 354 and 388 nm have been developed. This will replace TOMS LER (380 nm and 354nm) climatology in OMI near UV aerosol retrieval algorithm. The main objectives of this study is to produce high resolution (quarter degree) surface LER sets as compared to existing one degree TOMS surface LERs, to product instrument and wavelength consistent surface climatology. Nine years of OMI observations have been used to derive monthly climatology of surface LER. MODIS derived aerosol optical depth (AOD) have been used to make aerosol corrections on OMI wavelengths. MODIS derived BRDF adjusted reflectance product has been also used to capture seasonal changes in the surface characteristics. Finally spatial and temporal averaging techniques have been used to fill the gaps around the globes, especially in the regions with consistent cloud cover such as Amazon. After implementation of new surface data in the research version of algorithm, comparisons of AOD and single scattering albedo (SSA) have been performed over global AERONET sites for year 2007. Preliminary results shows improvements in AOD retrievals globally but more significance improvement were observed over desert and bright locations. We will present methodology of deriving surface data sets and will discuss the observed changes in retrieved aerosol properties with respect to reference AERONET measurements.

A Climatology of Global Aerosol Mixtures to Support Sentinel-5P and Earthcare Mission Applications

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Taylor, M.; Kazadzis, S.; Amaridis, V.; Kahn, R. A.

2015-11-01

Since constraining aerosol type with satellite remote sensing continues to be a challenge, we present a newly derived global climatology of aerosol mixtures to support atmospheric composition studies that are planned for Sentinel-5P and EarthCARE.The global climatology is obtained via application of iterative cluster analysis to gridded global decadal and seasonal mean values of the aerosol optical depth (AOD) of sulfate, biomass burning, mineral dust and marine aerosol as a proportion of the total AOD at 500nm output from the Goddard Chemistry Aerosol Radiation and Transport (GOCART). For both the decadal and seasonal means, the number of aerosol mixtures (clusters) identified is ≈10. Analysis of the percentage contribution of the component aerosol types to each mixture allowed development of a straightforward naming convention and taxonomy, and assignment of primary colours for the generation of true colour-mixing and easy-to-interpret maps of the spatial distribution of clusters across the global grid. To further help characterize the mixtures, aerosol robotic network (AERONET) Level 2.0 Version 2 inversion products were extracted from each cluster‟s spatial domain and used to estimate climatological values of key optical and microphysical parameters.The aerosol type climatology represents current knowledge that would be enhanced, possibly corrected, and refined by high temporal and spectral resolution, cloud-free observations produced by Sentinel-5P and EarthCARE instruments. The global decadal mean and seasonal gridded partitions comprise a preliminary reference framework and global climatology that can help inform the choice of components and mixtures in aerosol retrieval algorithms used by instruments such as TROPOMI and ATLID, and to test retrieval results.

The Climate Hazards group InfraRed Precipitation (CHIRP) with Stations (CHIRPS): Development and Validation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Peterson, P.; Funk, C. C.; Husak, G. J.; Pedreros, D. H.; Landsfeld, M.; Verdin, J. P.; Shukla, S.

2013-12-01

CHIRP and CHIRPS are new quasi-global precipitation products with daily to seasonal time scales, a 0.05° resolution, and a 1981 to near real-time period of record. Developed by the Climate Hazards Group at UCSB and scientists at the U.S. Geological Survey Earth Resources Observation and Science Center specifically for drought early warning and environmental monitoring, CHIRPS provides moderate latency precipitation estimates that place observed hydrologic extremes in their historic context. Three main types of information are used in the CHIRPS: (1) global 0.05° precipitation climatologies, (2) time-varying grids of satellite-based precipitation estimates, and (3) in situ precipitation observations. CHIRP: The global grids of long-term (1980-2009) average precipitation were estimated for each month based on station data, averaged satellite observations, and physiographic parameters. 1981-present time-varying grids of satellite precipitation were derived from spatially varying regression models based on pentadal cold cloud duration (CCD) values and TRMM V7 training data. The CCD time-series were derived from the CPC and NOAA B1 datasets. Pentadal CCD-percent anomaly values were multiplied by pentadal climatology fields to produce low bias pentadal precipitation estimates. CHIRPS: The CHG station blending procedure uses the satellite-observed spatial covariance structure to assign relative weights to neighboring stations and the CHIRP values. The CHIRPS blending procedure is based on the expected correlation between precipitation at a given target location and precipitation at the locations of the neighboring observation stations. These correlations are estimated using the CHIRP fields. The CHG has developed an extensive archive of in situ daily, pentadal and monthly precipitation totals. The CHG database has over half a billion daily rainfall observations since 1980 and another half billion before 1980. Most of these observations come from four sets of global climate observations: the monthly Global Historical Climate Network version 2 archive, the daily Global Historical Climate Network archive, the Global Summary of the Day dataset (GSOD), and the daily Global Telecommunication System (GTS) archive provided by NOAA's Climate Prediction Center (CPC). A screening procedure was developed to flag and remove potential false zeros from the daily data, since these potentially spurious data can artificially suppress rainfall totals. Validation: Our validation focused on precipitation products with global coverage, long periods of record and near real-time availability: CHIRP, CHIRPS, CPC-Unified, CFS Reanalysis and ECMWF datasets were compared to GPCC and high quality datasets from Uganda, Colombia and the Sahel. The CHIRP and CHIRPS are shown to have low systematic errors (bias) and low mean absolute errors. Analyses in Uganda, Colombia and the Sahel indicate that the ECMWF, CPC-Unified and CFS-Reanalysis have large inhomogeneities, making them unsuitable for drought monitoring. The CHIRPS performance appears quite similar to research quality products like the GPCC and GPCP, but with higher resolution and lower latency.

A CLIMATOLOGY OF WATER BUDGET VARIABLES FOR THE NORTHEAST UNITED STATES

EPA Science Inventory

This dataset provided only by the Northeast Regional Climatic Center is the basis for A Climatology of Water Budget Variables for the Northeast United States (Leathers and Robinson 1995). Climatic division precipitation and temperature data are used to calculate water budget vari...

"Blueprint version 2.0": updating public health surveillance for the 21st century.

PubMed

Smith, Perry F; Hadler, James L; Stanbury, Martha; Rolfs, Robert T; Hopkins, Richard S

2013-01-01

Rapid changes to the United States public health system challenge the current strategic approach to surveillance. During 2011, the Council of State and Territorial Epidemiologists convened national experts to reassess public health surveillance in the United States and update surveillance strategies that were published in a 1996 report and endorsed by the Council of State and Territorial Epidemiologists. Although surveillance goals, historical influences, and most methods have not changed, surveillance is being transformed by 3 influences: public health information and preparedness as national security issues; new information technologies; and health care reform. Each offers opportunities for surveillance, but each also presents challenges that public health epidemiologists can best meet by rigorously applying surveillance evaluation concepts, engaging in national standardization activities driven by electronic technologies and health care reform, and ensuring an adequately trained epidemiology workforce.

Sensitivity of Global Sea-Air CO2 Flux to Gas Transfer Algorithms, Climatological Wind Speeds, and Variability of Sea Surface Temperature and Salinity

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

McClain, Charles R.; Signorini, Sergio

2002-01-01

Sensitivity analyses of sea-air CO2 flux to gas transfer algorithms, climatological wind speeds, sea surface temperatures (SST) and salinity (SSS) were conducted for the global oceans and selected regional domains. Large uncertainties in the global sea-air flux estimates are identified due to different gas transfer algorithms, global climatological wind speeds, and seasonal SST and SSS data. The global sea-air flux ranges from -0.57 to -2.27 Gt/yr, depending on the combination of gas transfer algorithms and global climatological wind speeds used. Different combinations of SST and SSS global fields resulted in changes as large as 35% on the oceans global sea-air flux. An error as small as plus or minus 0.2 in SSS translates into a plus or minus 43% deviation on the mean global CO2 flux. This result emphasizes the need for highly accurate satellite SSS observations for the development of remote sensing sea-air flux algorithms.

Aerosol climatology over Mexico City basin: Characterization of their optical properties

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Carabali-Sandoval, Giovanni; Valdéz-Barrón, Mauro; Bonifaz-Alfonso, Roberto; Riveros-Rosas, David; Estévez, Héctor

2015-04-01

Climatology of aerosol optical depth (AOD), single scattering albedo (SSA) and size parameters were analyzed using a 15-year (1999-2014) data set from AErosol RObotic NETwork (AERONET) observations over Mexico City basin. Since urban air pollution is one of the biggest problems that face this megacity, many studies addressing these issues have been published. However few studies have examined the climatology of aerosol taking into account their optical properties over long-time period. Pollution problems in Mexico City have been generated by the daily activities of some 21 million people coupled with the vast amount of industry located within the city's metropolitan area. Another contributing factor is the unique geographical setting of the basin encompassing Mexico City. The basin covers approximately 5000 km2 of the Mexican Plateau at an average elevation of 2250 m above sea level (ASL) and is surrounded on three sides by mountains averaging over 3000 m ASL. In this work we present preliminary results of aerosol climatology in Mexico City.

A new aircraft hurricane wind climatology and applications in assessing the predictive skill of tropical cyclone intensity using high-resolution ensemble forecasts

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Judt, Falko; Chen, Shuyi S.

2015-07-01

Hurricane surface wind is a key measure of storm intensity. However, a climatology of hurricane winds is lacking to date, largely because hurricanes are relatively rare events and difficult to observe over the open ocean. Here we present a new hurricane wind climatology based on objective surface wind analyses, which are derived from Stepped Frequency Microwave Radiometer measurements acquired by NOAA WP-3D and U.S. Air Force WC-130J hurricane hunter aircraft. The wind data were collected during 72 aircraft reconnaissance missions into 21 western Atlantic hurricanes from 1998 to 2012. This climatology provides an opportunity to validate hurricane intensity forecasts beyond the simplistic maximum wind speed metric and allows evaluating the predictive skill of probabilistic hurricane intensity forecasts using high-resolution model ensembles. An example of application is presented here using a 1.3 km grid spacing Weather Research and Forecasting model ensemble forecast of Hurricane Earl (2010).

GRANADA: A Generic RAdiative traNsfer AnD non-LTE population algorithm

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Funke, B.; López-Puertas, M.; García-Comas, M.; Kaufmann, M.; Höpfner, M.; Stiller, G. P.

2012-09-01

We present in this paper the Generic RAdiative traNsfer AnD non-LTE population Algorithm (GRANADA). This model is able to compute non-LTE populations for vibrational, rotational, spin (i.e., NO and OH), and electronic (i.e., O2) states in a given planetary atmosphere. The model is very flexible and can be used for computing very accurate non-LTE populations or for calculating reasonably accurate but at high speed non-LTE populations in order to implement it into non-LTE remote sensing retrievals. We describe the model in detail and present an update of the non-LTE collisional processes and their rate coefficients for the most important molecules in Earth's atmosphere. In addition, we have applied the model to the most important atmospheric infrared emitters including 13 species (H2O, CO2, O3, N2O, CO, CH4, O2, NO, NO2, HNO3, OH, N2, and HCN) and 460 excited vibrational or electronic energy levels. Non-LTE populations for all these energy levels have been calculated for 48 reference atmospheres expanding from the surface up to 200 km, including seasonal (January, April, July and October), latitudinal (75°S, 45°S, 10°S, 10°N, 45°N, 75°N) and diurnal (day and night) coverages. The effects of the most recent updates of the non-LTE collisional parameters on the non-LTE populations are briefly described. This climatology is available online to the community and it can be used for estimating non-LTE effects at specific conditions and for testing and validation studies.

Incorporation of quality updates for JPSS CGS Products

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cochran, S.; Grant, K. D.; Ibrahim, W.; Brueske, K. F.; Smit, P.

2016-12-01

NOAA's next-generation environmental satellite, the Joint Polar Satellite System (JPSS) replaces the current Polar-orbiting Operational Environmental Satellites (POES). JPSS satellites carry sensors which collect meteorological, oceanographic, climatological, and solar-geophysical observations of the earth, atmosphere, and space. The first JPSS satellite was launched in 2011 and is currently NOAA's primary operational polar satellite. The JPSS ground system is the Common Ground System (CGS), and provides command, control, and communications (C3) and data processing (DP). A multi-mission system, CGS provides combinations of C3/DP for numerous NASA, NOAA, DoD, and international missions. In preparation for the next JPSS satellite, CGS improved its multi-mission capabilities to enhance mission operations for larger constellations of earth observing satellites with the added benefit of streamlining mission operations for other NOAA missions. This paper will discuss both the theoretical basis and the actual practices used to date to identify, test and incorporate algorithm updates into the CGS processing baseline. To provide a basis for this support, Raytheon developed a theoretical analysis framework, and the application of derived engineering processes, for the maintenance of consistency and integrity of remote sensing operational algorithm outputs. The framework is an abstraction of the operationalization of the science-grade algorithm (Sci2Ops) process used throughout the JPSS program. By combining software and systems engineering controls, manufacturing disciplines to detect and reduce defects, and a standard process to control analysis, an environment to maintain operational algorithm maturity is achieved. Results of the use of this approach to implement algorithm changes into operations will also be detailed.

Tennessee Valley Total and Cloud-to-Ground Lightning Climatology Comparison

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Buechler, Dennis; Blakeslee, R. J.; Hall, J. M.; McCaul, E. W.

2008-01-01

The North Alabama Lightning Mapping Array (NALMA) has been in operation since 2001 and consists often VHF receivers deployed across northern Alabama. The NALMA locates sources of impulsive VHF radio signals from total lightning by accurately measuring the time that the signals arrive at the different receiving stations. The sources detected are then clustered into flashes by applying spatially and temporally constraints. This study examines the total lightning climatology of the region derived from NALMA and compares it to the cloud-to-ground (CG) climatology derived from the National Lightning Detection Network (NLDN) The presentation compares the total and CG lightning trends for monthly, daily, and hourly periods.

Comparative climatology of four marine stratocumulus regimes

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hanson, Howard P.

1990-01-01

The climatology of marine stratocumulus (MSc) cloud regimes off the west coasts of California, Peru, Morocco, and Angola are examined. Long-term, annual averages are presented for several quantities of interest in the four MSc regimes. The climatologies were constructed using the Comprehensive Ocean-Atmosphere Data Set (COADS). A 40 year time series of observations was extracted for 32 x 32 deg analysis domains. The data were taken from the monthly-averaged, 2 deg product. The resolution of the analysis is therefore limited to scales of greater than 200 km with submonthly variability not resolved. The averages of total cloud cover, sea surface temperature, and surface pressure are presented.

Onshore Wind Stress and Buoyancy Flux Observed on a Dissipative Mediterranean Beach

DTIC Science & Technology

2015-12-01

a climatologically Mediterranean coastline to explore the wind stress and buoyancy flux. An eddy covariance system was deployed in the intertidal... climatologically Mediterranean coastline to explore the wind stress and buoyancy flux. An eddy covariance system was deployed in the intertidal zone

AIR POLLUTION CLIMATOLOGY OF AN ISOLATED POINT SOURCE USING CONVECTIVE SCALING PARAMETERS

EPA Science Inventory

An air pollution climatology, which incorporated convective scaling parameters, is used to investigate the conditions associated with hourly sulfur dioxide concentrations from a coal-fired power plant. ne year of data from the Paradise power plant in central Kentucky (UeSeAs) was...

Seasonal evolution of the West African heat low: a climatological perspective

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lavaysse, C.; Flamant, C.; Janicot, S.; Parker, D. J.; Lafore, J.-P.; Sultan, B.; Pelon, J.

2009-08-01

The West African heat low (WAHL), a region of high surface temperatures and low surface pressures, is a key element of the West African monsoon system. In this study, we propose a method to detect the WAHL in order to monitor its climatological seasonal displacement over West Africa during the period 1979-2001, using the European Centre for Medium-range Weather Forecast (ECMWF) ERA-40 reanalyses. The low-level atmospheric thickness (LLAT), a variable defined as the difference of geopotential heights at 700 and 925 hPa, is used to detect the dilatation of these levels generated by an increase of the temperature. We define grid points with 10% highest values of the LLAT as the WAHL. We show that our method reliably positions the WAHL over areas of high surface temperatures and low surface pressures, and that it is effective at detecting heat lows. In the course of the year, the climatological WAHL is shown to migrate north-westward from a position south of the Darfur mountains in the winter (November-March) to a location over the Sahara, between the Hoggar and the Atlas mountains, during the summer (June-September). The temperature tendency equation is used to investigate the processes controlling the displacement of the WAHL, and more particularly the heating at low levels. The specific period of the onset of the WAHL in its summer location over the Sahara (referred to as the Saharan heat low -SHL- onset) is also analysed during the 1984-2001 period, using complementary brightness temperature data from the European Union-funded Cloud Archive User Service (CLAUS). The climatological onset of the SHL occurs around 20 June, i.e. just before the climatological monsoon onset date. The present study suggests that the onset of the WAHL occurs approximately 5 days before the monsoon onset for the 1984-2001 period. This is confirmed independently by comparing the SHL onset date and the monsoon onset date for the 1984-2001 period. The seasonal evolution of the WAHL for the year 2006 (the year of the African Monsoon Multidisciplinary Analysis project Special Observation Period) is analysed and compared with the climatological results. The operational ECMWF analyses were used for that purpose. Except in April, the spatial distribution of the WAHL remains relatively unchanged and agrees with the climatology. The onset of the SHL in 2006 occurs on 18 June, which is close to the climatological date, in spite of the delay in the onset of the rainy season in Sahel.

Evaluation of OSCAR ocean surface current product in the tropical Indian Ocean using in situ data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sikhakolli, Rajesh; Sharma, Rashmi; Basu, Sujit; Gohil, B. S.; Sarkar, Abhijit; Prasad, K. V. S. R.

2013-02-01

The OSCAR (ocean surface current analysis real-time), which is a product derived from various satellite observations, has been evaluated in the tropical Indian Ocean (TIO) in two different ways. First, the OSCAR-derived monthly climatology has been compared with available drifter-derived climatology in the TIO. From the comparison of the two climatologies, one can infer that OSCAR product is able to capture the variabilities of the well-known surface current systems in the TIO reasonably well. Fourier analysis of the major current systems, as reproduced by OSCAR, shows that the dominant annual and semiannual periodicities, known to exist in these systems, have been faithfully picked up by OSCAR. Next, the evaluation has been carried out by comparing the OSCAR currents with currents measured by moored buoys. The zonal component of OSCAR-current is in good agreement with corresponding component of buoy-observed current with a correlation exceeding 0.7, while the match between the meridional components is poorer. The locations of the peaks of the mean and eddy kinetic energies are matching in both the climatologies, although the peak in the drifter climatology is stronger than the same in the OSCAR product. Finally, an important feature of Indian Ocean circulation, namely the reverse Wyrtki jet, occurring during anomalous dipole years, has been well-reproduced by OSCAR currents.

Toward Creating A Global Retrospective Climatology of Aerosol Properties

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Curran, Robert J.; Mishchenko, Michael I.; Hansen, James E. (Technical Monitor)

2000-01-01

Tropospheric aerosols are thought to cause a significant direct and indirect climate forcing, but the magnitude of this forcing remains highly uncertain because of poor knowledge of global aerosol characteristics and their temporal changes. The standard long-term global product, the one-channel Advanced Very-High-Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR) aerosol optical thickness over the ocean, relies on a single predefined aerosol model and can be inaccurate in many cases. Furthermore, it provides no information on aerosol column number density, thus making it impossible to estimate the indirect aerosol effect on climate. Total Ozone Mapping Spectrometer (TOMS) data can be used to detect absorbing aerosols over land, but are insensitive to aerosols located below one kilometer. It is thus clear that innovative approaches must be employed in order to extract a more quantitative and accurate aerosol climatology from available satellite and other measurements, thus enabling more reliable estimates of the direct and indirect aerosol forcings. The Global Aerosol Climatology Project (GACP) was established in 1998 as part of the Global Energy and Water Cycle Experiment (GEWEX). Its main objective is to analyze satellite radiance measurements and field observations to infer the global distribution of aerosols, their properties, and their seasonal and interannual variations. The overall goal is to develop advanced global aerosol climatologies for the period of satellite data and to make the aerosol climatologies broadly available through the GACP web site.

Difference of the Climatological Monthly Frequency of the Explosive Cyclones in the Northwestern Part of the Pacific and the Atlantic

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tsukijihara, T.; Tomita, T.; Iwao, K.

2015-12-01

　This study examined the climatological monthly frequency of the explosive cyclones over the northwestern(NW) part of the Pacific and the Atlantic in boreal cold season (October-April) from 1979/80 to 2012/13, using the long-term objective analysis data. The climatological monthly frequency of the NW Atlantic is on a normal distribution with a maximum in January, while it deviates from a normal distribution in the NW Pacific, in particular, the deviation is large in March.　Low-level meridional temperature gradient decreases linearly from February to April in the Gulf stream region. However, the gradient is maintained through February to March to the east of Japan, and it sharply weakens in April. This feature is in good agreement with the climatological monthly frequency of the explosive cyclones in the two regions.　The difference in the seasonal change of the low-level meridional temperature gradient in the two regions is caused by the positional relation of the gradient and continents. In particular, the difference of warmed area in the eastern part of the Eurasian and the North American continents causes the difference of the low-level meridional temperature gradient, and it causes the difference in the climatological monthly frequency of the explosive cyclones between the two regions from February to April.

Global Ocean Integrals and Means, with Trend Implications.

PubMed

Wunsch, Carl

2016-01-01

Understanding the ocean requires determining and explaining global integrals and equivalent average values of temperature (heat), salinity (freshwater and salt content), sea level, energy, and other properties. Attempts to determine means, integrals, and climatologies have been hindered by thinly and poorly distributed historical observations in a system in which both signals and background noise are spatially very inhomogeneous, leading to potentially large temporal bias errors that must be corrected at the 1% level or better. With the exception of the upper ocean in the current altimetric-Argo era, no clear documentation exists on the best methods for estimating means and their changes for quantities such as heat and freshwater at the levels required for anthropogenic signals. Underestimates of trends are as likely as overestimates; for example, recent inferences that multidecadal oceanic heat uptake has been greatly underestimated are plausible. For new or augmented observing systems, calculating the accuracies and precisions of global, multidecadal sampling densities for the full water column is necessary to avoid the irrecoverable loss of scientifically essential information.

Attributable Human-Induced Changes in the Likelihood and Magnitude of the Observed Extreme Precipitation during Hurricane Harvey

DOE PAGES

Risser, Mark D.; Wehner, Michael F.

2017-12-28

Record rainfall amounts were recorded during Hurricane Harvey in the Houston, Texas, area, leading to widespread flooding. We analyze observed precipitation from the Global Historical Climatology Network with a covariate-based extreme value statistical analysis, accounting for both the external influence of global warming and the internal influence of El Niño–Southern Oscillation. We find that human-induced climate change likely increased the chances of the observed precipitation accumulations during Hurricane Harvey in the most affected areas of Houston by a factor of at least 3.5. Further, precipitation accumulations in these areas were likely increased by at least 18.8% (best estimate of 37.7%),more » which is larger than the 6–7% associated with an attributable warming of 1°C in the Gulf of Mexico and Clausius-Clapeyron scaling. Thus, in a Granger causality sense, these statements provide lower bounds on the impact of climate change and motivate further attribution studies using dynamical climate models.« less

Changing world extreme temperature statistics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Finkel, J. M.; Katz, J. I.

2018-04-01

We use the Global Historical Climatology Network--daily database to calculate a nonparametric statistic that describes the rate at which all-time daily high and low temperature records have been set in nine geographic regions (continents or major portions of continents) during periods mostly from the mid-20th Century to the present. This statistic was defined in our earlier work on temperature records in the 48 contiguous United States. In contrast to this earlier work, we find that in every region except North America all-time high records were set at a rate significantly (at least $3\\sigma$) higher than in the null hypothesis of a stationary climate. Except in Antarctica, all-time low records were set at a rate significantly lower than in the null hypothesis. In Europe, North Africa and North Asia the rate of setting new all-time highs increased suddenly in the 1990's, suggesting a change in regional climate regime; in most other regions there was a steadier increase.

Attributable Human-Induced Changes in the Likelihood and Magnitude of the Observed Extreme Precipitation during Hurricane Harvey

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Risser, Mark D.; Wehner, Michael F.

Record rainfall amounts were recorded during Hurricane Harvey in the Houston, Texas, area, leading to widespread flooding. We analyze observed precipitation from the Global Historical Climatology Network with a covariate-based extreme value statistical analysis, accounting for both the external influence of global warming and the internal influence of El Niño–Southern Oscillation. We find that human-induced climate change likely increased the chances of the observed precipitation accumulations during Hurricane Harvey in the most affected areas of Houston by a factor of at least 3.5. Further, precipitation accumulations in these areas were likely increased by at least 18.8% (best estimate of 37.7%),more » which is larger than the 6–7% associated with an attributable warming of 1°C in the Gulf of Mexico and Clausius-Clapeyron scaling. Thus, in a Granger causality sense, these statements provide lower bounds on the impact of climate change and motivate further attribution studies using dynamical climate models.« less

Attributable Human-Induced Changes in the Likelihood and Magnitude of the Observed Extreme Precipitation during Hurricane Harvey

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Risser, Mark D.; Wehner, Michael F.

2017-12-01

Record rainfall amounts were recorded during Hurricane Harvey in the Houston, Texas, area, leading to widespread flooding. We analyze observed precipitation from the Global Historical Climatology Network with a covariate-based extreme value statistical analysis, accounting for both the external influence of global warming and the internal influence of El Niño-Southern Oscillation. We find that human-induced climate change likely increased the chances of the observed precipitation accumulations during Hurricane Harvey in the most affected areas of Houston by a factor of at least 3.5. Further, precipitation accumulations in these areas were likely increased by at least 18.8% (best estimate of 37.7%), which is larger than the 6-7% associated with an attributable warming of 1°C in the Gulf of Mexico and Clausius-Clapeyron scaling. In a Granger causality sense, these statements provide lower bounds on the impact of climate change and motivate further attribution studies using dynamical climate models.

SEC proton prediction model: verification and analysis.

PubMed

Balch, C C

1999-06-01

This paper describes a model that has been used at the NOAA Space Environment Center since the early 1970s as a guide for the prediction of solar energetic particle events. The algorithms for proton event probability, peak flux, and rise time are described. The predictions are compared with observations. The current model shows some ability to distinguish between proton event associated flares and flares that are not associated with proton events. The comparisons of predicted and observed peak flux show considerable scatter, with an rms error of almost an order of magnitude. Rise time comparisons also show scatter, with an rms error of approximately 28 h. The model algorithms are analyzed using historical data and improvements are suggested. Implementation of the algorithm modifications reduces the rms error in the log10 of the flux prediction by 21%, and the rise time rms error by 31%. Improvements are also realized in the probability prediction by deriving the conditional climatology for proton event occurrence given flare characteristics.

Automated parameter tuning applied to sea ice in a global climate model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Roach, Lettie A.; Tett, Simon F. B.; Mineter, Michael J.; Yamazaki, Kuniko; Rae, Cameron D.

2018-01-01

This study investigates the hypothesis that a significant portion of spread in climate model projections of sea ice is due to poorly-constrained model parameters. New automated methods for optimization are applied to historical sea ice in a global coupled climate model (HadCM3) in order to calculate the combination of parameters required to reduce the difference between simulation and observations to within the range of model noise. The optimized parameters result in a simulated sea-ice time series which is more consistent with Arctic observations throughout the satellite record (1980-present), particularly in the September minimum, than the standard configuration of HadCM3. Divergence from observed Antarctic trends and mean regional sea ice distribution reflects broader structural uncertainty in the climate model. We also find that the optimized parameters do not cause adverse effects on the model climatology. This simple approach provides evidence for the contribution of parameter uncertainty to spread in sea ice extent trends and could be customized to investigate uncertainties in other climate variables.

Transport of the Norwegian Atlantic current as determined from satellite altimetry

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Pistek, Pavel; Johnson, Donald R.

1992-01-01

Relatively warm and salty North Atlantic surface waters flow through the Faeroe-Shetland Channel into the higher latitudes of the Nordic Seas, preserving an ice-free winter environment for much of the exterior coast of northern Europe. This flow was monitored along the Norwegian coast using Geosat altimetry on two ascending arcs during the Exact Repeat Mission in 1987-1989. Concurrent undertrack CTD surveys were used to fix a reference surface for the altimeter-derived SSH anomalies, in effect creating time series of alongtrack surface dynamic height topographies. Climatologic CTD casts were then used, with empirical orthogonal function (EOF) analysis, to derive relationships between historical surface dynamic heights and vertical temperature and salinity profiles. Applying these EOF relationships to the altimeter signals, mean transports of volume, heat, and salt were calculated at approximately 2.9 Sverdrups, 8.1 x 10 exp 11 KCal/s and 1.0 x 10 exp 8 Kg/s, respectively. Maximum transports occurred in February/March and minimum in July/August.

Peak Wind Forecasts for the Launch-Critical Wind Towers on Kennedy Space Center/Cape Canaveral Air Force Station, Phase IV

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Crawford, Winifred

2011-01-01

This final report describes the development of a peak wind forecast tool to assist forecasters in determining the probability of violating launch commit criteria (LCC) at Kennedy Space Center (KSC) and Cape Canaveral Air Force Station (CCAFS). The peak winds arc an important forecast clement for both the Space Shuttle and Expendable Launch Vehicle (ELV) programs. The LCC define specific peak wind thresholds for each launch operation that cannot be exceeded in order to ensure the safety of the vehicle. The 45th Weather Squadron (45 WS) has found that peak winds are a challenging parameter to forecast, particularly in the cool season months of October through April. Based on the importance of forecasting peak winds, the 45 WS tasked the Applied Meteorology Unit (AMU) to update the statistics in the current peak-wind forecast tool to assist in forecasting LCC violations. The tool includes onshore and offshore flow climatologies of the 5-minute mean and peak winds and probability distributions of the peak winds as a function of the 5-minute mean wind speeds.

The shaping of climate science: half a century in personal perspective

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Barry, R. G.

2015-09-01

The paper traces my career as a climatologist from the 1950s and that of most of my graduate students from the late 1960s. These decades were the formative ones in the evolution of climate science. Following a brief account of the history of climatology, a summary of my early training, my initial teaching and research in the UK is discussed. This is followed by new directions at the University of Colorado, Boulder from October 1968. The history of the World Data Center for Glaciology/National Snow and Ice Data Center in Boulder from 1977 is described and climate-cryosphere initiatives at the Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences (CIRES). International activities and links are then reported, followed by a section on national and international committees. I then describe my activities during sabbaticals and research leaves. The paper concludes with discussion of my "retirement" activities and an epilogue. The paper is based on a lecture given at the Roger Barry Symposium: A Chronicle of Distinction: From the Arctic to the Andes, at the University of Colorado, 10 August 2004 and updated to 2014.

A Radar Climatology for Germany - a 16-year high resolution precipitation data and its possibilities

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Walawender, Ewelina; Winterrath, Tanja; Brendel, Christoph; Hafer, Mario; Junghänel, Thomas; Klameth, Anna; Weigl, Elmar; Becker, Andreas

2017-04-01

One of the main features of heavy precipitation events is their small-scale distribution. Despite a local occurrence, these intensive rainfalls may, however, cause most serious damage and have significant impact on the whole river basin area resulting in e.g. flash floods or urban flooding. Thus, it is of great importance not only to detect the life-cycle of extreme precipitation during its occurrence but also to collect precise climatological information on such events. The German weather service (Deutscher Wetterdienst) operates a very dense network of more than 2000 weather stations collecting data on precipitation. It is however not sufficient for detecting spatially limited phenomena. Thanks to radar data, current monitoring of such events is possible. A quality control process is applied to real-time radar products, however only automatic rain gauges data can be used in the adjustment procedure. To merge both radar data and all available rain gauges data, the radar climatology dataset was established. Within the framework of a project financed by the federal agencies' strategic alliance 'Adaptation to Climate Change', 16 years (2001-2016) of radar data have been reanalyzed in order to gain a homogenous, quality-controlled, high-resolution precipitation data set suitable for analyzing extreme events in a climatological approach. Additional corrections methods (e.g. clutter, spokes and beam height correction) were defined and used for the reprocessing procedure to enhance the data quality. Although the time series is still rather short for a climatology, for the first time the data set allows an insight into e.g. the distribution, size, life cycle, and duration of extreme events that cannot be measured by point measurements alone. All radar climatology products share the same spatial and temporal coverage. The whole dataset has been produced for the area of Germany. With the relatively high spatial resolution of 1km, the data can be used as a component of wide range of spatial analyses: from country to city scale. Multiple events can be investigated in details, depending on the user needs, as temporal resolution differs from 15 years to 1 hour. Apart from standard products such as precipitation sum, the radar climatology will provide its derivatives as well e.g. extreme precipitation characteristics and rain erosivity potential (R factor) map. Employing GIS functionalities into the Radar Climatology dataset has made it universal and interoperable - suitable for integration with a wide range of other geodata formats or services. It can be treated also as input layer for further analyses which demand spatially continuous data on precipitation and for building more integrated products tailored to the user needs. One of the most important concepts may be an application of the Radar Climatology data as a key factor in risk assessment analysis and developing strategies for risk management in urban planning, hydrology, agriculture etc.

Global Real-Time Nowcasting of Ionosphere with Giro-Driven Assimilative IRI

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Galkin, I. A.; Reinisch, B. W.; Huang, X. A.; Vesnin, A.; Bilitza, D.; Song, P.

2014-12-01

Real-time prediction of the ionosphere beyond its quiet-time median behavior has proved to be a great challenge: low-latency sensor data streams are scarce, and early comparisons conducted within the CEDAR ETI Assessment framework showed that, on average, the assimilative physics-based models perform on par with the long-term empirical predictions. This rather surprising result led to the formation of the Real-Time Task Force of the International Reference Ionosphere (IRI) science team in 2011, with a simple objective to develop a method for correcting the IRI long-term climatology definitions on the fly, i.e., in near real-time, using suitable observations. Three years later, a pilot version of the IRI-based Real-Time Assimilative Model "IRTAM" started its continuous operations at the Global Ionosphere Radio Observatory (GIRO) Data Center, using online feeds from the ionosondes contributing data to GIRO. The IRTAM version 0.1B builds and publishes every 15-minutes an updated "global weather" map of the peak density and height in the ionosphere, as well as a map of deviations from the classic IRI climate. Incidentally, the IRTAM verification and validation efforts shed light on the forecasting capabilities of the assimilative IRI extension, even though it has not yet involved external activity indicators. At the core of the assimilative computations, a Non-linear Error Compensation Technique for Associative Restoration (NECTAR) seeks agreement between IRI prediction and the 24-hour history of latest observations at GIRO sensor sites to produce the one map frame. The NECTAR first evaluates the diurnal harmonics of the observed deviations from the IRI climatology at each GIRO site to then independently compute the spatial maps for each diurnal harmonic. Thus obtained "corrective" coefficients of the spatial-diurnal expansion are added to the original IRI set of coefficients to obtain the IRTAM specification. We are intrigued by the IRTAM capability to glean ionospheric dynamics over no-data areas, and the potential for short-term forecasting.

PEP725 Pan European Phenological Database

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Koch, E.; Adler, S.; Lipa, W.; Ungersböck, M.; Zach-Hermann, S.

2010-09-01

Europe is in the fortunate situation that it has a long tradition in phenological networking: the history of collecting phenological data and using them in climatology has its starting point in 1751 when Carl von Linné outlined in his work Philosophia Botanica methods for compiling annual plant calendars of leaf opening, flowering, fruiting and leaf fall together with climatological observations "so as to show how areas differ". Recently in most European countries, phenological observations have been carried out routinely for more than 50 years by different governmental and non governmental organisations and following different observation guidelines, the data stored at different places in different formats. This has been really hampering pan European studies as one has to address many network operators to get access to the data before one can start to bring them in a uniform style. From 2004 to 2009 the COST-action 725 established a European wide data set of phenological observations. But the deliverables of this COST action was not only the common phenological database and common observation guidelines - COST725 helped to trigger a revival of some old networks and to establish new ones as for instance in Sweden. At the end of 2009 the COST action the database comprised about 8 million data in total from 15 European countries plus the data from the International Phenological Gardens IPG. In January 2010 PEP725 began its work as follow up project with funding from EUMETNET the network of European meteorological services and of ZAMG the Austrian national meteorological service. PEP725 not only will take over the part of maintaining, updating the COST725 database, but also to bring in phenological data from the time before 1951, developing better quality checking procedures and ensuring an open access to the database. An attractive webpage will make phenology and climate impacts on vegetation more visible in the public enabling a monitoring of vegetation development.

The Pan European Phenological Database PEP725: Data Content and Data Quality Control Procedures

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jurkovic, Anita; Hübner, Thomas; Koch, Elisabeth; Lipa, Wolfgang; Scheifinger, Helfried; Ungersböck, Markus; Zach-Hermann, Susanne

2014-05-01

Phenology - the study of the timing of recurring biological events in the animal and plant world - has become an important approach for climate change impact studies in recent years. It is therefore a "conditio sine qua non" to collect, archive, digitize, control and update phenological datasets. Thus and with regard to cross-border cooperation and activities it was necessary to establish, operate and promote a pan European phenological database (PEP725). Such a database - designed and tested under cost action 725 in 2004 and further developed and maintained in the framework of the EUMETNET program PEP725 - collects data from different European governmental and nongovernmental institutions and thus offers a unique compilation of plant phenological observations. The data follows the same classification scheme - the so called BBCH coding system - that makes datasets comparable. Europe had a long tradition in the observation of phenological events: the history of collecting phenological data and their usage in climatology began in 1751. The first datasets in PEP725 date back to 1868. However, there are only a few observations available until 1950. From 1951 onwards, the phenological networks all over Europe developed rapidly: Currently, PEP725 provides about 9 million records from 23 European countries (covering approximately 50% of Europe). To supply the data in a good and uniform quality it is essential and worthwhile to establish and develop data quality control procedures. Consequently, one of the main tasks within PEP725 is the conception of a multi-stage-quality control. Currently the tests are stepwise composed: completeness -, plausibility -, time consistency -, climatological - and statistical checks. In a nutshell: The poster exemplifies the status quo of the data content of the PEP725 database and incipient stages of used and planned quality controls, respectively. For more details, we would also like to promote and refer to the PEP725 website (http://www.pep725.eu) and invite additional institutions and regional services to join our program.