Interactions between reactive nitrogen and the Canadian landscape: A budget approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Clair, Thomas A.; Pelletier, Nathan; Bittman, Shabtai; Leip, Adrian; Arp, Paul; Moran, Michael D.; Dennis, Ian; Niemi, David; Sterling, Shannon; Drury, Craig F.; Yang, Jingyi

2014-11-01

The movement of excess reactive nitrogen (Nr) from anthropogenic activities to natural ecosystems has been described as one of the most serious environmental threats facing modern society. One of the approaches for tracking this movement is the use of budgets that quantify fluxes. We constructed an Nr budget for Canada using measured and modeled values from the scientific literature, government databases, and data from new agri-environmental indicators, in order to produce information for policy makers and scientists to understand the major flows of nitrogen to allow a better assessment of risks to the Canadian environment. We divided the Canadian territory south of 60°N into areas dominated by natural ecosystems, as well as by agricultural and urban/industrial activities to evaluate Nr flows within, between, and out of these units. We show that Canada is a major exporter of Nr due to the availability of inexpensive commercial fertilizers. The large land area suitable for agriculture makes Canada a significant agricultural Nr exporter of both grain crops and livestock. Finally, Canada exports petroleum N mainly to the United States. Because of its location and prevailing atmospheric transport patterns, Canada is a net receptor of Nr air pollution from the United States, receiving approximately 20% of the Nr leaving the U.S. airshed. We found that overall, terrestrial natural ecosystems as well as the atmosphere are in balance between Nr inputs and outputs when all N reactive and nonreactive fluxes are included. However, when only reactive forms are considered, almost 50% of N entering the Canadian atmosphere cannot be accounted for and is assumed to be lost to the Atlantic and Arctic oceans or to unmeasured dry deposition. However, agricultural and freshwater landscapes are showing large differences between measured inputs and outputs of N as our data suggest that denitrification in soils and aquatic systems is larger than what models predict. Our work also shows that Canada is a major contributor to the global flow of nitrogen through commercial exports.

Canada-wide standards and innovative transboundary air quality initiatives.

PubMed

Barton, Jane

2008-01-01

Canada's approach to air quality management is one that has brought with it opportunities for the development of unique approaches to risk management. Even with Canada's relatively low levels of pollution, science has demonstrated clearly that air quality and ecosystem improvements are worthwhile. To achieve change and address air quality in Canada, Canadian governments work together since, under the constitution, they share responsibility for the environment. At the same time, because air pollution knows no boundaries, working with the governments of other nations is essential to get results. International cooperation at all levels provides opportunities with potential for real change. Cooperation within transboundary airsheds is proving a fruitful source of innovative opportunities to reduce cross-border barriers to air quality improvements. In relation to the NERAM Colloquium objective to establish principles for air quality management based on the identification of international best practice in air quality policy development and implementation, Canada has developed, both at home and with the United States, interesting air management strategies and initiatives from which certain lessons may be taken that could be useful in other countries with similar situations. In particular, the Canada-wide strategies for smog and acid rain were developed by Canadian governments, strategies that improve and protect air quality at home, while Canada-U.S. transboundary airshed projects provide examples of international initiatives to improve air quality.

Ozone modeling in an ethanol, gasoline and diesel fuels environment: The metropolitan area of Sao Paulo, Brazil

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Andrade, M.F.; Miguel, A.H.; Seinfeld, J.H.

1995-12-01

Over the past several years, in the Metropolitan Area of Sao Paulo (MASP), ambient ozone concentrations have reached over five times the concentration considered protective of public health by the World Health Organization, with routine occurrence of levels that exceed Brazil`s 1 hour National Ambient Air Quality Standard (160 {mu}g/m{sup 3}). For the past 19 years, ethanol has been used both as fuel (E95) and as gasoline additive (E20G80) in light duty vehicles. This talk will discuss the results of the application of the CIT photochemical airshed model to the February 16-17, 1989 meteorological experiment carried out in the MASP.more » Simulated hourly ozone concentrations for the 1989 vehicular fleet included three cases: (1) the actual fleet (F.95, E20G80, and diesels), (2) a light duty fleet fueled with E95 only, and (3) entirely with gasoline.« less

Daily ambient air pollution metrics for five cities: Evaluation of data-fusion-based estimates and uncertainties

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Friberg, Mariel D.; Kahn, Ralph A.; Holmes, Heather A.; Chang, Howard H.; Sarnat, Stefanie Ebelt; Tolbert, Paige E.; Russell, Armistead G.; Mulholland, James A.

2017-06-01

Spatiotemporal characterization of ambient air pollutant concentrations is increasingly relying on the combination of observations and air quality models to provide well-constrained, spatially and temporally complete pollutant concentration fields. Air quality models, in particular, are attractive, as they characterize the emissions, meteorological, and physiochemical process linkages explicitly while providing continuous spatial structure. However, such modeling is computationally intensive and has biases. The limitations of spatially sparse and temporally incomplete observations can be overcome by blending the data with estimates from a physically and chemically coherent model, driven by emissions and meteorological inputs. We recently developed a data fusion method that blends ambient ground observations and chemical-transport-modeled (CTM) data to estimate daily, spatially resolved pollutant concentrations and associated correlations. In this study, we assess the ability of the data fusion method to produce daily metrics (i.e., 1-hr max, 8-hr max, and 24-hr average) of ambient air pollution that capture spatiotemporal air pollution trends for 12 pollutants (CO, NO2, NOx, O3, SO2, PM10, PM2.5, and five PM2.5 components) across five metropolitan areas (Atlanta, Birmingham, Dallas, Pittsburgh, and St. Louis), from 2002 to 2008. Three sets of comparisons are performed: (1) the CTM concentrations are evaluated for each pollutant and metropolitan domain, (2) the data fusion concentrations are compared with the monitor data, (3) a comprehensive cross-validation analysis against observed data evaluates the quality of the data fusion model simulations across multiple metropolitan domains. The resulting daily spatial field estimates of air pollutant concentrations and uncertainties are not only consistent with observations, emissions, and meteorology, but substantially improve CTM-derived results for nearly all pollutants and all cities, with the exception of NO2 for Birmingham. The greatest improvements occur for O3 and PM2.5. Squared spatiotemporal correlation coefficients range between simulations and observations determined using cross-validation across all cities for air pollutants of secondary and mixed origins are R2 = 0.88-0.93 (O3), 0.81-0.89 (SO4), 0.67-0.83 (PM2.5), 0.52-0.72 (NO3), 0.43-0.80 (NH4), 0.32-0.51 (OC), and 0.14-0.71 (PM10). Results for relatively homogeneous pollutants of secondary origin, tend to be better than those for more spatially heterogeneous (larger spatial gradients) pollutants of primary origin (NOx, CO, SO2 and EC). Generally, background concentrations and spatial concentration gradients reflect interurban airshed complexity and the effects of regional transport, whereas daily spatial pattern variability shows intra-urban consistency in the fused data. With sufficiently high CTM spatial resolution, traffic-related pollutants exhibit gradual concentration gradients that peak toward the urban centers. Ambient pollutant concentration uncertainty estimates for the fused data are both more accurate and smaller than those for either the observations or the model simulations alone.

Assessing transboundary influences in the lower Rio Grande Valley

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Mukerjee, S.; Shadwick, D.S.; Dean, K.E.

1999-07-01

The Lower Rio Grande Valley Transboundary Air Pollution Project (TAPP) was a US-Mexico Border XXI Program project to assess transboundary air pollution in and near Brownsville, Texas. The study used a three-site air monitoring network very close to the border to capture the direct impact of local sources and transboundary transport. Ambient data included particulate mass and elemental composition, VOCs, PAHs, pesticides, and meteorology. Also, near real-time, PM{sub 2.5} mass measurements captured potential pollutant plume events occurring over 1-h periods. Data collected were compared to screening levels and other monitoring data to assess general air pollution impacts on nearby bordermore » communities. Wind sector analyses, chemical tracer analyses, principal component analyses, and other techniques were used to assess the extent of transboundary transport of air pollutants and identify possible transboundary air pollution sources. Overall, ambient levels were comparable to or lower than other urban and rural areas in Texas and elsewhere. Movement of air pollution across the border did not appear to cause noticeable deterioration of air quality on the US side of the Lower Rio Grande Valley. Dominant southeasterly winds from the Gulf of Mexico were largely responsible for the clean air conditions in the Brownsville airshed. Few observations of pollutants exceeded effects screening levels, almost all being VOCs; these appeared to be due to local events and immediate influences, not regional phenomena or persistent transboundary plumes.« less

Chemical Composition and Source Apportionment of Size ...

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

The Cleveland airshed comprises a complex mixture of industrial source emissions that contribute to periods of non-attainment for fine particulate matter (PM 2.5 ) and are associated with increased adverse health outcomes in the exposed population. Specific PM sources responsible for health effects however are not fully understood. Size-fractionated PM (coarse, fine, and ultrafine) samples were collected using a ChemVol sampler at an urban site (G.T. Craig (GTC)) and rural site (Chippewa Lake (CLM)) from July 2009 to June 2010, and then chemically analyzed. The resulting speciated PM data were apportioned by EPA positive matrix factorization to identify emission sources for each size fraction and location. For comparisons with the ChemVol results, PM samples were also collected with sequential dichotomous and passive samplers, and evaluated for source contributions to each sampling site. The ChemVol results showed that annual average concentrations of PM, elemental carbon, and inorganic elements in the coarse fraction at GTC were ~ 2, ~7, and ~3 times higher than those at CLM, respectively, while the smaller size fractions at both sites showed similar annual average concentrat ions. Seasonal variations of secondary aerosols (e.g., high N03- level in winter and high SO42- level in summer) were observed at both sites. Source apportionment results demonstrated that the PM samples at GTC and CLM were enriched with local industrial sources (e.g., steel plant and coa

Atmospheric production of oxalic acid/oxalate and nitric acid/nitrate in the Tampa Bay airshed: Parallel pathways

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Martinelango, P. Kalyani; Dasgupta, Purnendu K.; Al-Horr, Rida S.

Oxalic acid is the dominant dicarboxylic acid (DCA), and it constitutes up to 50% of total atmospheric DCAs, especially in non-urban and marine atmospheres. A significant amount of particulate H 2Ox/oxalate (Ox) occurred in the coarse particle fraction of a dichotomous sampler, the ratio of oxalate concentrations in the PM 10 to PM 2.5 fractions ranged from 1 to 2, with mean±sd being 1.4±0.2. These results suggest that oxalate does not solely originate in the gas phase and condense into particles. Gaseous H 2Ox concentrations are much lower than particulate Ox concentrations and are well correlated with HNO 3, HCHO, and O 3, supporting a photochemical origin. Of special relevance to the Bay Region Atmospheric Chemistry Experiment (BRACE) is the extent of nitrogen deposition in the Tampa Bay estuary. Hydroxyl radical is primarily responsible for the conversion of NO 2 to HNO 3, the latter being much more easily deposited. Hydroxyl radical is also responsible for the aqueous phase formation of oxalic acid from alkenes. Hence, we propose that an estimate of rad OH can be obtained from H 2Ox/Ox production rate and we accordingly show that the product of total oxalate concentration and NO 2 concentration approximately predicts the total nitrate concentration during the same period.

Formaldehyde and its relation to CO, PAN, and SO2 in the Houston-Galveston airshed

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rappenglück, B.; Dasgupta, P. K.; Leuchner, M.; Li, Q.; Luke, W.

2010-03-01

The Houston-Galveston Airshed (HGA) is one of the major metropolitan areas in the US that is classified as a nonattainment area of federal ozone standards. Formaldehyde (HCHO) is a key species in understanding ozone related air pollution; some of the highest HCHO concentrations in North America have been reported for the HGA. We report on HCHO measurements in the HGA from summer 2006. Among several sites, maximum HCHO mixing ratios were observed in the Houston Ship Channel (HSC), a region with a very high density of industrial/petrochemical operations. HCHO levels at the Moody Tower (MT) site close to downtown were dependent on the wind direction: southerly maritime winds brought in background levels (0.5-1 ppbv) while trajectories originating in the HSC resulted in high HCHO (up to 31.5 ppbv). Based on the best multiparametric linear regression model fit, the HCHO levels at the MT site can be accounted for as follows: 38.5±12.3% from primary vehicular emissions (using CO as an index of vehicular emission), 24.1±17.7% formed photochemically (using peroxyacetic nitric anhydride (PAN) as an index of photochemical activity) and 8.9±11.2% from industrial emissions (using SO2 as an index of industrial emissions). The balance 28.5±12.7% constituted the residual which cannot be easily ascribed to the above categories and/or which is transported into the HGA. The CO related HCHO fraction is dominant during the morning rush hour (06:00-09:00 h, all times are given in CDT); on a carbon basis, HCHO emissions are up to 0.7% of the CO emissions. The SO2 related HCHO fraction is significant between 09:00-12:00 h. After 12:00 h HCHO is largely formed through secondary processes. The HCHO/PAN ratios are dependent on the SO2 levels. The SO2 related HCHO fraction at the downtown site originates in the ship channel. Aside from traffic-related primary HCHO emissions, HCHO of industrial origin serves as an appreciable source for OH in the morning.

Formaldehyde and its relation to CO, PAN, and SO2 in the Houston-Galveston airshed

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rappenglück, B.; Dasgupta, P. K.; Leuchner, M.; Li, Q.; Luke, W.

2009-11-01

The Houston-Galveston Airshed (HGA) is one of the major metropolitan areas in the US that is classified as a nonattainment area of Federal ozone standards. Formaldehyde (HCHO) is a key species in understanding ozone related air pollution; some of the highest HCHO concentrations in North America have been reported for the HGA. We report on HCHO measurements in the HGA from summer 2006. Among several sites, maximum HCHO mixing ratios were observed in the Houston Ship Channel (HSC), a region with a very high density of industrial/petrochemical operations. HCHO levels at the Moody Tower (MT) site close to downtown were dependent on the wind direction: southerly maritime winds brought in background levels (0.5-1 ppbv) while trajectories originating in the HSC resulted in high HCH (up to 31.5 ppbv). Based on the best multiparametric linear regression model fit, the HCHO levels at the MT site can be accounted for as follows: 38.5±12.3% from primary vehicular emissions (using CO as an index of vehicular emission), 24.1±17.7% formed photochemically (using peroxyacetic nitric anhydride (PAN) as an index of photochemical activity) and 8.9±11.2% from industrial emissions (using SO2 as an index of industrial emissions). The balance 28.5±12.7% constituted the residual which cannot be easily ascribed to the above categories and/or which is transported into the HGA. The CO related HCHO fraction is dominant during the morning rush hour (06:00-09:00 h, all times are given in CDT); on a carbon basis, HCHO emissions are up to 0.7% of the CO emissions. The SO2 related HCHO fraction is significant between 09:00-12:00 h. After 12:00 h HCHO is largely formed through secondary processes. The HCHO/PAN ratios are dependent on the SO2 levels. The SO2 related HCHO fraction at the downtown site originates in the ship channel. Aside from traffic-related primary HCHO emissions, HCHO of industrial origin serves as an appreciable source for OH in the morning.

New Zealand traffic and local air quality.

PubMed

Irving, Paul; Moncrieff, Ian

2004-12-01

Since 1996 the New Zealand Ministry of Transport (MOT) has been investigating the effects of road transport on local air quality. The outcome has been the government's Vehicle Fleet Emissions Control Strategy (VFECS). This is a programme of measures designed to assist with the improvement in local air quality, and especially in the appropriate management of transport sector emissions. Key to the VFECS has been the development of tools to assess and predict the contribution of vehicle emissions to local air pollution, in a given urban situation. Determining how vehicles behave as an emissions source, and more importantly, how the combined traffic flows contribute to the total emissions within a given airshed location was an important element of the programme. The actual emissions output of a vehicle is more than that determined by a certified emission standard, at the point of manufacture. It is the engine technology's general performance capability, in conjunction with the local driving conditions, that determines its actual emissions output. As vehicles are a mobile emissions source, to understand the effect of vehicle technology, it is necessary to work with the average fleet performance, or "fleet-weighted average emissions rate". This is the unit measure of performance of the general traffic flow that could be passing through a given road corridor or network, as an average, over time. The flow composition can be representative of the national fleet population, but also may feature particular vehicle types in a given locality, thereby have a different emissions 'signature'. A summary of the range of work that has been completed as part of the VFECS programme is provided. The NZ Vehicle Fleet Emissions Model and the derived data set available in the NZ Traffic Emission Rates provide a significant step forward in the consistent analysis of practical, sustainable vehicle emissions policy and air-quality management in New Zealand.

Particle size distribution and composition in a mechanically ventilated school building during air pollution episodes.

PubMed

Parker, J L; Larson, R R; Eskelson, E; Wood, E M; Veranth, J M

2008-10-01

Particle count-based size distribution and PM(2.5) mass were monitored inside and outside an elementary school in Salt Lake City (UT, USA) during the winter atmospheric inversion season. The site is influenced by urban traffic and the airshed is subject to periods of high PM(2.5) concentration that is mainly submicron ammonium and nitrate. The school building has mechanical ventilation with filtration and variable-volume makeup air. Comparison of the indoor and outdoor particle size distribution on the five cleanest and five most polluted school days during the study showed that the ambient submicron particulate matter (PM) penetrated the building, but indoor concentrations were about one-eighth of outdoor levels. The indoor:outdoor PM(2.5) mass ratio averaged 0.12 and particle number ratio for sizes smaller than 1 microm averaged 0.13. The indoor submicron particle count and indoor PM(2.5) mass increased slightly during pollution episodes but remained well below outdoor levels. When the building was occupied the indoor coarse particle count was much higher than ambient levels. These results contribute to understanding the relationship between ambient monitoring station data and the actual human exposure inside institutional buildings. The study confirms that staying inside a mechanically ventilated building reduces exposure to outdoor submicron particles. This study supports the premise that remaining inside buildings during particulate matter (PM) pollution episodes reduces exposure to submicron PM. New data on a mechanically ventilated institutional building supplements similar studies made in residences.

The influence of scales of atmospheric motion on air pollution over Portugal

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Russo, Ana; Trigo, Ricardo; Mendes, Manuel; Jerez, Sonia; Gouveia, Célia Marina

2014-05-01

Air pollution is determined by the combination of different factors, namely, emissions, physical constrains, meteorology and chemical processes [1,2,3]. The relative importance of such factors is influenced by their interaction on diverse scales of atmospheric motion. Each scale depicts different meteorological conditions, which, when combined with the different air pollution sources and photochemistry, result in varying ambient concentrations [2]. Identifying the dominant scales of atmospheric motion over a given airshed can be of great importance for many applications such as air pollution and pollen dispersion or wind energy management [2]. Portugal has been affected by numerous air pollution episodes during the last decade. These episodes are often related to peak emissions from local industry or transport, but can also be associated to regional transport from other urban areas or to exceptional emission events, such as forest fires. This research aims to identify the scales of atmospheric motion which contribute to an increase of air pollution. A method is proposed for differentiating between the scales of atmospheric motion that can be applied on a daily basis from data collected at several wind-measuring sites in a given airshed and to reanalysis datasets. The method is based on the daily mean wind recirculation and the mean and standard deviation between sites. The determination of the thresholds between scales is performed empirically following the approach of Levy et al. [2] and also through a automatic statistical approach computed taking into account the tails of the distributions (e.g. 95% and 99% percentile) of the different wind samples. A comparison is made with two objective approaches: 1) daily synoptic classification for the same period over the region [4] and 2) a 3-D backward trajectory approach [5,6] for specific episodes. Furthermore, the outcomes are expected to support the Portuguese authorities on the implementation of strategies for a sustainable management of environmental risks. [1] Demuzere, M., Trigo, R.M., Vila-Guerau de Arellano, van Lipzig, N.P.M., 2009. The impact of weather and atmospheric circulation on O3 and PM10 levels at a rural mid-latitude site. Atmos. Chem. Phys., 9, 2695-2714. [2] Levy, I., Dayan, U., Mahrer, Y., 2009. Differing atmospheric scales of motion and their impact on air pollutants. Int. J. Climatol. [3] Pearce, J., Beringer, J., Nicholls, N., Hyndman, R.J., Uotila, P., Tapper, N.J., 2011. Investigating the influence of synoptic-scale meteorology on air quality using self-organizing maps and generalized additive modeling. Atmospheric Environment, 45, 1, 128 - 136, doi 10.1016/j.atmosenv.2010.09.032. [4 Trigo, R.M., DaCamara, C.C., 2000. Circulation Weather Types and their impact on the precipitation regime in Portugal. Int. J. Climat., 20, 1559-1581. [5] Carvalho, A., Monteiro, A., Ribeiro, I., Tchepel, O., Miranda, A.I., Borrego, C., Saavedra, S., Souto, J.A., Casares, J.J., 2010. High ozone levels in the Northeast of Portugal: analysis and characterization. Atmospheric Environment, 44, 1020 - 1031. [6] Saavedra, S., Rodríguez, A., Taboada, J.J., Souto, J.A., Casares, J.J., 2012. Synoptic patterns and air mass transport during ozone episodes in northwestern Iberia. Sci Total Environ., 441, 97-110. doi: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2012.09.014.

Nitrogen deposition in a southern hemisphere biodiversity hotspot within and surrounding Cape Town, South Africa

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Angstmann, J. L.; Hall, S.; February, E.; West, A. G.; Allsopp, N.; Bond, W.

2011-12-01

Anthropogenic nitrogen (N) emissions have increased dramatically since the agricultural and industrial revolutions leading to N deposition in the northern hemisphere that is estimated to be an order of magnitude greater than preindustrial fluxes. N deposition rates of 5-15 kg N ha-1 yr-1 in Europe and N. America decrease plant species diversity, increase invasive species, and lead to eutrophication of surface waters. The southern hemisphere is home to over 50% of the world's biodiversity hotspots, including the 90,000 km2 Cape Floristic Region which houses 9,030 vascular plant species, 69% of which are endemic. However, to date, N deposition rates in the southern hemisphere are highly uncertain, with global models of N deposition based upon sparse datasets at best. Many terrestrial systems, such as fynbos shrublands, are adapted to low N availability and exhibit high species diversity and endemism, rendering them susceptible to ecological changes from N deposition. In this research, we quantified the spatial and temporal distribution of wet and dry N deposition across 30 protected fynbos ecosystems within the urban airshed of Cape Town, South Africa. We predicted that 1) total inorganic N deposition varies predictably along the urban-rural gradient (highest near the city centre), 2) N deposition varies seasonally, with higher fluxes in the winter months when atmospheric stability causes a build-up of N gases in and around the city, and 3) total inorganic N deposition will exceed the critical load of 10-15 kg N ha-1 yr-1 for Mediterranean shrublands, past which negative ecosystem effects have been shown to occur. Estimates of N deposition based on NO2 concentrations within the city suggest that total N deposition ranges from 8-13 kg N ha-1 yr-1 . However, we show that N deposition measured by ion-exchange resin collectors is far less than expected, averaging less than 2 kg N ha-1 yr-1 (range 0.5 - 5.5 kg N ha-1 yr-1 ), and is is dominated by NO3-, suggesting combustion sources. Despite low rates compared to northern hemisphere studies, throughfall N fluxes are lower on average than bulk N fluxes, suggesting significant N uptake through the canopy. Preliminary analyses of cloud water + dry deposition show concentrations of N up to an order of magnitude higher than rainfall. These results suggest that dry and cloud water deposition may contribute high N loads to fynbos shrublands, but these areas may be localized to mountain tops near the city center.

Influence of atmospheric deposition on Okefenokee National Wildlife Refuge

USGS Publications Warehouse

Winger, P.V.; Lasier, P.J.; Jackson, B.P.

1995-01-01

Designation of Okefenokee National Wildlife Refuge (Georgia) as a Class I Air Quality Area affords mandatory protection of the airshed through permit-review processes for planned developments. Rainfall is the major source of water to the swamp, and potential impacts from developments in the airshed are high. To meet management needs for baseline information, chemical contributions from atmospheric deposition and partitioning of anions and cations in various matrices of the swamp, with emphasis on mercury and lead, were determined during this study. Chemistry of rainfall was measured on an event basis from one site and quarterly on surface water, pore water, floc, and sediment from four locations. A sediment core collected from the Refuge interior was sectioned, aged, and analyzed for mercury. Rainfall was acidic (pH 4.7-4.9), with average total and methyl mercury concentrations of 9 ng/L and 0.1 ng/L, respectively. Surface waters were acidic (pH 3.8-4.1), dilute (specific conductance 35-60 pS), and highly organic (dissolved organic carbon 35-50 mg/L). Total mercury was 1-3.5 ng/L in surface and pore water, and methyl mercury was 0.02-0.20 ng/L. Total mercury in sediments and floc was 100-200 ng/g dry weight, and methyl mercury was 4-16 ng/g. Lead was 0-1.7 pg/L in rainfall, not detectable in surface water, 3.4-5.4 pg/L in pore water, and 3.9-4.9 mg/kg in floc and sediment. Historical patterns of mercury deposition showed an increase in total mercury from pre-1800 concentrations of 250 ng/g to 500 ng/g in 1950, with concentrations declining thereafter to present.

Source-to-exposure assessment with the Pangea multi-scale framework - case study in Australia.

PubMed

Wannaz, Cedric; Fantke, Peter; Lane, Joe; Jolliet, Olivier

2018-01-24

Effective planning of airshed pollution mitigation is often constrained by a lack of integrative analysis able to relate the relevant emitters to the receptor populations at risk. Both emitter and receptor perspectives are therefore needed to consistently inform emission and exposure reduction measures. This paper aims to extend the Pangea spatial multi-scale multimedia framework to evaluate source-to-receptor relationships of industrial sources of organic pollutants in Australia. Pangea solves a large compartmental system in parallel by block to determine arrays of masses at steady-state for 100 000+ compartments and 4000+ emission scenarios, and further computes population exposure by inhalation and ingestion. From an emitter perspective, radial spatial distributions of population intakes show high spatial variation in intake fractions from 0.68 to 33 ppm for benzene, and from 0.006 to 9.5 ppm for formaldehyde, contrasting urban, rural, desert, and sea source locations. Extending analyses to the receptor perspective, population exposures from the combined emissions of 4101 Australian point sources are more extended for benzene that travels over longer distances, versus formaldehyde that has a more local impact. Decomposing exposure per industrial sector shows petroleum and steel industry as the highest contributing industrial sectors for benzene, whereas the electricity sector and petroleum refining contribute most to formaldehyde exposures. The source apportionment identifies the main sources contributing to exposure at five locations. Overall, this paper demonstrates high interest in addressing exposures from both an emitter perspective well-suited to inform product oriented approaches such as LCA, and from a receptor perspective for health risk mitigation.

Enhancing non-refractory aerosol apportionment from an urban industrial site through receptor modeling of complete high time-resolution aerosol mass spectra

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

McGuire, M. L.; Chang, R. Y.-W.; Slowik, J. G.; Jeong, C.-H.; Healy, R. M.; Lu, G.; Mihele, C.; Abbatt, J. P. D.; Brook, J. R.; Evans, G. J.

2014-08-01

Receptor modeling was performed on quadrupole unit mass resolution aerosol mass spectrometer (Q-AMS) sub-micron particulate matter (PM) chemical speciation measurements from Windsor, Ontario, an industrial city situated across the Detroit River from Detroit, Michigan. Aerosol and trace gas measurements were collected on board Environment Canada's Canadian Regional and Urban Investigation System for Environmental Research (CRUISER) mobile laboratory. Positive matrix factorization (PMF) was performed on the AMS full particle-phase mass spectrum (PMFFull MS) encompassing both organic and inorganic components. This approach compared to the more common method of analyzing only the organic mass spectra (PMFOrg MS). PMF of the full mass spectrum revealed that variability in the non-refractory sub-micron aerosol concentration and composition was best explained by six factors: an amine-containing factor (Amine); an ammonium sulfate- and oxygenated organic aerosol-containing factor (Sulfate-OA); an ammonium nitrate- and oxygenated organic aerosol-containing factor (Nitrate-OA); an ammonium chloride-containing factor (Chloride); a hydrocarbon-like organic aerosol (HOA) factor; and a moderately oxygenated organic aerosol factor (OOA). PMF of the organic mass spectrum revealed three factors of similar composition to some of those revealed through PMFFull MS: Amine, HOA and OOA. Including both the inorganic and organic mass proved to be a beneficial approach to analyzing the unit mass resolution AMS data for several reasons. First, it provided a method for potentially calculating more accurate sub-micron PM mass concentrations, particularly when unusual factors are present, in this case the Amine factor. As this method does not rely on a priori knowledge of chemical species, it circumvents the need for any adjustments to the traditional AMS species fragmentation patterns to account for atypical species, and can thus lead to more complete factor profiles. It is expected that this method would be even more useful for HR-ToF-AMS data, due to the ability to understand better the chemical nature of atypical factors from high-resolution mass spectra. Second, utilizing PMF to extract factors containing inorganic species allowed for the determination of the extent of neutralization, which could have implications for aerosol parameterization. Third, subtler differences in organic aerosol components were resolved through the incorporation of inorganic mass into the PMF matrix. The additional temporal features provided by the inorganic aerosol components allowed for the resolution of more types of oxygenated organic aerosol than could be reliably resolved from PMF of organics alone. Comparison of findings from the PMFFull MS and PMFOrg MS methods showed that for the Windsor airshed, the PMFFull MS method enabled additional conclusions to be drawn in terms of aerosol sources and chemical processes. While performing PMFOrg MS can provide important distinctions between types of organic aerosol, it is shown that including inorganic species in the PMF analysis can permit further apportionment of organics for unit mass resolution AMS mass spectra.

Gas and Particulate Aircraft Emissions Measurements: Impacts on local air quality.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jayne, J. T.; Onasch, T.; Northway, M.; Canagaratna, M.; Worsnop, D.; Timko, M.; Wood, E.; Miake-Lye, R.; Herndon, S.; Knighton, B.; Whitefield, P.; Hagen, D.; Lobo, P.; Anderson, B.

2007-12-01

Air travel and freight shipping by air are becoming increasingly important and are expected to continue to expand. The resulting increases in the local concentrations of pollutants, including particulate matter (PM), volatile organic compounds (VOCs), and nitrogen oxides (NOX), can have negative impacts on regional air quality, human health and can impact climate change. In order to construct valid emission inventories, accurate measurements of aircraft emissions are needed. These measurements must be done both at the engine exit plane (certification) and downwind following the rapid cooling, dilution and initial atmospheric processing of the exhaust plume. We present here results from multiple field experiments which include the Experiment to Characterize Volatile Aerosol and Trace Species Emissions (EXCAVATE) and the four Aircraft Particle Emissions eXperiments (APEX- 1/Atlanta/2/3) which characterized gas and particle emissions from both stationary or in-use aircraft. Emission indices (EIs) for NOx and VOCs and for particle number concentration, refractory PM (black carbon soot) and volatile PM (primarily sulfate and organic) particles are reported. Measurements were made at the engine exit plane and at several downstream locations (10 and 30 meters) for a number of different engine types and engine thrust settings. A significant fraction of organic particle mass is composed of low volatility oil-related compounds and is not combustion related, potentially emitted by vents or heated surfaces within aircraft engines. Advected plumes measurements from in-use aircraft show that the practice of reduced thrust take-offs has a significant effect on total NOx and soot emitted in the vicinity of the airport. The measurements reported here represent a first observation of this effect and new insights have been gained with respect to the chemical processing of gases and particulates important to the urban airshed.

Patterns of mercury dispersion from local and regional emission sources, rural Central Wisconsin, USA

USGS Publications Warehouse

Kolker, A.; Olson, M.L.; Krabbenhoft, D.P.; Tate, M.T.; Engle, M.A.

2010-01-01

Simultaneous real-time changes in mercury (Hg) speciation ?????" reactive gaseous Hg (RGM), elemental Hg (Hg??), and fine particulate Hg (Hg-PM2.5), were determined from June to November 2007, in ambient air at three locations in rural Central Wisconsin. Known Hg emission sources within the airshed of the monitoring sites include: 1) a 1114 megawatt (MW) coal-fired electric utility generating station; 2) a Hg-bed chlor-alkali plant; and 3) a smaller (465 MW) coal-burning electric utility. Monitoring sites, showing sporadic elevation of RGM, Hg?? and Hg-PM 2.5, were positioned at distances of 25, 50 and 100 km northward of the larger electric utility. A series of RGM events were recorded at each site. The largest, on 23 September, occurred under prevailing southerly winds, with a maximum RGM value (56.8 pg m-3) measured at the 100 km site, and corresponding elevated SO2 (10.41 ppbv; measured at 50 km site). The finding that RGM, Hg??, and Hg-PM2.5 are not always highest at the 25 km site, closest to the large generating station, contradicts the idea that RGM decreases with distance from a large point source. This may be explained if: 1) the 100 km site was influenced by emissions from the chlor-alkali facility or by RGM from regional urban sources; 2) the emission stack height of the larger power plant promoted plume transport at an elevation where the Hg is carried over the closest site; or 3) RGM was being generated in the plume through oxidation of Hg??. Operational changes at each emitter since 2007 should reduce their Hg output, potentially allowing quantification of the environmental benefit in future studies.

High Precision, Absolute Total Column Ozone Measurements from the Pandora Spectrometer System: Comparisons with Data from a Brewer Double Monochromator and Aura OMI

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Tzortziou, Maria A.; Herman, Jay R.; Cede, Alexander; Abuhassan, Nader

2012-01-01

We present new, high precision, high temporal resolution measurements of total column ozone (TCO) amounts derived from ground-based direct-sun irradiance measurements using our recently deployed Pandora single-grating spectrometers. Pandora's small size and portability allow deployment at multiple sites within an urban air-shed and development of a ground-based monitoring network for studying small-scale atmospheric dynamics, spatial heterogeneities in trace gas distribution, local pollution conditions, photochemical processes and interdependencies of ozone and its major precursors. Results are shown for four mid- to high-latitude sites where different Pandora instruments were used. Comparisons with a well calibrated double-grating Brewer spectrometer over a period of more than a year in Greenbelt MD showed excellent agreement and a small bias of approximately 2 DU (or, 0.6%). This was constant with slant column ozone amount over the full range of observed solar zenith angles (15-80), indicating adequate Pandora stray light correction. A small (1-2%) seasonal difference was found, consistent with sensitivity studies showing that the Pandora spectral fitting TCO retrieval has a temperature dependence of 1% per 3K, with an underestimation in temperature (e.g., during summer) resulting in an underestimation of TCO. Pandora agreed well with Aura-OMI (Ozone Measuring Instrument) satellite data, with average residuals of <1% at the different sites when the OMI view was within 50 km from the Pandora location and OMI-measured cloud fraction was <0.2. The frequent and continuous measurements by Pandora revealed significant short-term (hourly) temporal changes in TCO, not possible to capture by sun-synchronous satellites, such as OMI, alone.

Assessing the spatial and temporal variability of fine particulate matter components in Israeli, Jordanian, and Palestinian cities

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sarnat, Jeremy A.; Moise, Tamar; Shpund, Jacob; Liu, Yang; Pachon, Jorge E.; Qasrawi, Radwan; Abdeen, Ziad; Brenner, Shmuel; Nassar, Khaled; Saleh, Rami; Schauer, James J.

2010-07-01

This manuscript presents results from an extensive, multi-country comparative monitoring study of fine particulate matter (PM 2.5) and its primary chemical components in Israeli, Jordanian and Palestinian cities. This study represented the first time that researchers from these countries have worked together to examine spatial and temporal relationships for PM 2.5 and its major components among the study sites. The findings indicated that total PM 2.5 mass was relatively homogenous among many of the 11 sites as shown from strong between-site correlations. Mean annual concentrations ranged from 19.9 to 34.9 μg m -3 in Haifa and Amman, respectively, and exceeded accepted international air quality standards for annual PM 2.5 mass. Similarity of total mass was largely driven by SO 42- and crustal PM 2.5 components. Despite the close proximity of the seven, well correlated sites with respect to PM 2.5, there were pronounced differences among the cities for EC and, to a lesser degree, OC. EC, in particular, exhibited spatiotemporal trends that were indicative of strong local source contributions. Interestingly, there were moderate to strong EC correlations ( r > 0.65) among the large metropolitan cities, West Jerusalem, Tel Aviv and Amman. For these relatively large cities, (i.e., West Jerusalem, Tel Aviv and Amman), EC sources from the fleet of buses and cars typical for many urban areas predominate and likely drive spatiotemporal EC distributions. As new airshed management strategies and public health interventions are implemented throughout the Middle East, our findings support regulatory strategies that target integrated regional and local control strategies to reduce PM 2.5 mass and specific components suspected to drive adverse health effects of particulate matter exposure.

What does atmospheric nitrogen contribute to the Gulf of Mexico area of oxygen depletion?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rabalais, N. N.

2017-12-01

The northern Gulf of Mexico influenced by the freshwater discharge and nutrient loads of the Mississippi River watershed is the location of the world's second largest human-caused area of coastal hypoxia. Over 500 more anthropogenic `dead zones' exist in coastal waters. The point source inputs within the Mississippi River watershed account for about ten per cent of the total nitrogen inputs to the Mississippi River, with the remaining being nonpoint source. Atmospheric nitrogen makes up about sixteen per cent of the nonpoint source input of nitrogen. Most of the NOx is generated within the Ohio River watershed from the burning of fossil fuels. Some remains to be deposited into the same watershed, but the airshed deposits much of the NOx along the U.S. eastern seaboard, including Chesapeake Bay, which also has a hypoxia problem. Most of the volatilized ammonia is produced from fertilizers or manure within the upper Mississippi River watershed, is deposited within a localized airshed, and is not airborne long distances like the NOx. The atmospheric nitrogen input to the coastal waters affected by hypoxia is considered to be minimal. In the last half century, the nitrogen load from the Mississippi River to the Gulf of Mexico has increased 300 percent. During this period, low oxygen bottom-waters have developed in the coastal waters and worsened coincident with the increase in the nitrogen load. The 31-yr average size of the bottom-water hypoxia area in the Gulf of Mexico is 13,800 square kilometers, well over the 5,000 square kilometers goal of the Mississippi River Nutrient/Gulf of Mexico Hypoxia Task Force. Knowing the amounts and sources of excess nutrients to watersheds with adjacent coastal waters experiencing eutrophication and hypoxia is important in the management strategies to reduce those nutrients and improve water quality.

Developing Oxidized Nitrogen Atmospheric Deposition Source Attribution from CMAQ for Air-Water Trading for Chesapeake Bay

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dennis, R. L.; Napelenok, S. L.; Linker, L. C.; Dudek, M.

2012-12-01

Estuaries are adversely impacted by excess reactive nitrogen, Nr, from many point and nonpoint sources, including atmospheric deposition to the watershed and the estuary itself as a nonpoint source. For effective mitigation, trading among sources of Nr is being considered. The Chesapeake Bay Program is working to bring air into its trading scheme, which requires some special air computations. Airsheds are much larger than watersheds; thus, wide-spread or national emissions controls are put in place to achieve major reductions in atmospheric Nr deposition. The tributary nitrogen load reductions allocated to the states to meet the TMDL target for Chesapeake Bay are large and not easy to attain via controls on water point and nonpoint sources. It would help the TMDL process to take advantage of air emissions reductions that would occur with State Implementation Plans that go beyond the national air rules put in place to help meet national ambient air quality standards. There are still incremental benefits from these local or state-level controls on atmospheric emissions. The additional air deposition reductions could then be used to offset water quality controls (air-water trading). What is needed is a source to receptor transfer function that connects air emissions from a state to deposition to a tributary. There is a special source attribution version of the Community Multiscale Air Quality model, CMAQ, (termed DDM-3D) that can estimate the fraction of deposition contributed by labeled emissions (labeled by source or region) to the total deposition across space. We use the CMAQ DDM-3D to estimate simplified state-level delta-emissions to delta-atmospheric-deposition transfer coefficients for each major emission source sector within a state, since local air regulations are promulgated at the state level. The CMAQ 4.7.1 calculations are performed at a 12 km grid size over the airshed domain covering Chesapeake Bay for 2020 CAIR emissions. For results, we first present the fractional contributions of Bay state NOx emissions to the oxidized nitrogen deposition to the Chesapeake Bay watershed and the Bay. We then present example tables of the fractional contributions of Bay state NOx emissions from mobile, off road, power plant and industrial emissions to key tributaries: the Potomac, Susquehanna and James Rivers. Finally, we go through an example for a mobile source NOx reductions in Pennsylvania to show how the tributary load offset would be calculated using the factors generated by CMAQ DDM-3D.

Naphthalene and Naphthoquinone: Distributions and Human Exposure in the Los Angeles Basin

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lu, R.; Wu, J.; Turco, R.; Winer, A. M.; Atkinson, R.; Paulson, S.; Arey, J.; Lurmann, F.

2003-12-01

Naphthalene is the simplest and most abundant of the polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs). Naphthalene is found primarily in the gas-phase and has been detected in both outdoor and indoor samples. Evaporation from naphthalene-containing products (including gasoline), and during refining operations, are important sources of naphthalene in air. Naphthalene is also emitted during the combustion of fossil fuels and wood, and is a component of vehicle exhaust. Exposure to high concentrations of naphthalene can damage or destroy red blood cells, causing hemolytic anemia. If inhaled over a long period of time, naphthalene may cause kidney and liver damage, skin allergy and dermatitis, cataracts and retinal damage, as well as attack the central nervous system. Naphthalene has been found to cause cancer as a result of inhalation in animal tests. Naphthoquinones are photooxidation products of naphthalene and the potential health effects of exposure to these quinones are a current focus of research. We are developing and applying models that can be used to assess human exposure to naphthalene and its photooxidation products in major air basins such as California South Coast Air Basin (SoCAB). The work utilizes the Surface Meteorology and Ozone Generation (SMOG) airshed model, and the REgional Human EXposure (REHEX) model, including an analysis of individual exposure. We will present and discuss simulations of basin-wide distributions of, and human exposures to, naphthalene and naphthoquinone, with emphasis on the uncertainties in these estimates of atmospheric concentrations and human exposure. Regional modeling of pollutant sources and exposures can lead to cost-effective and optimally health-protective emission control strategies.

Developing a Model to Estimate Freshwater Gross Primary Production Using MODIS Surface Temperature Observations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Saberi, S. J.; Weathers, K. C.; Norouzi, H.; Prakash, S.; Solomon, C.; Boucher, J. M.

2016-12-01

Lakes contribute to local and regional climate conditions, cycle nutrients, and are viable indicators of climate change due to their sensitivity to disturbances in their water and airsheds. Utilizing spaceborne remote sensing (RS) techniques has considerable potential in studying lake dynamics because it allows for coherent and consistent spatial and temporal observations as well as estimates of lake functions without in situ measurements. However, in order for RS products to be useful, algorithms that relate in situ measurements to RS data must be developed. Estimates of lake metabolic rates are of particular scientific interest since they are indicative of lakes' roles in carbon cycling and ecological function. Currently, there are few existing algorithms relating remote sensing products to in-lake estimates of metabolic rates and more in-depth studies are still required. Here we use satellite surface temperature observations from Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) product (MYD11A2) and published in-lake gross primary production (GPP) estimates for eleven globally distributed lakes during a one-year period to produce a univariate quadratic equation model. The general model was validated using other lakes during an equivalent one-year time period (R2=0.76). The statistical analyses reveal significant positive relationships between MODIS temperature data and the previously modeled in-lake GPP. Lake-specific models for Lake Mendota (USA), Rotorua (New Zealand), and Taihu (China) showed stronger relationships than the general combined model, pointing to local influences such as watershed characteristics on in-lake GPP in some cases. These validation data suggest that the developed algorithm has a potential to predict lake GPP on a global scale.

Fate of Airborne Contaminants in Okefenokee National Wildlife Refuge

USGS Publications Warehouse

Winger, P.V.; Lasier, P.J.

1997-01-01

Designation of Okefenokee National Wildlife Refuge as a Class I Air Quality Area (given the highest level of protection possible from air pollutants under the Clean Air Act Amendments of 1977) affords mandatory protection of the Refuge's airshed through the permit-review process for planned developments. Rainfall is the major source of water to the swamp, and potential impacts from developments to the airshed are high. To meet management needs for baseline information, chemical contributions from atmospheric deposition and partitioning of anions and cations, with emphasis on mercury and lead, in the various matrices of the Swamp were determined between July 1993 and April 1995. Chemistry of rainfall was determined on an event basis from one site located at Refuge Headquarters. Field samples of surface water, pore water, floc and sediment were collected from four locations on the Refuge: Chesser Prairie, Chase Prairie, Durden Prairie, and the Narrows. A sediment core sample was collected from the Refuge interior at Bluff Lake for aging of mercury deposition. Rainfall was acidic (pH 4.8) with sulfate concentrations averaging 1.2 mg/L and nitrate averaging 0.8 mg/L. Lead in rainfall averaged 1 ?g/L and total and methylmercury concentrations were 11.7 ng/L and 0.025 ng/L, respectively. The drought of 1993 followed by heavy rains during the fall and winter caused a temporary alteration in the cycling and availability of trace-elements within the different matrices of the Swamp. Surface water was acidic (pH 3.8 to 4.1), dilute (specific conductance 35-60 ?S/cm), and highly organic (DOC 35-50 mg/L). Sediment and floc were also highly organic (>90%). Total mercury averaged 3.6 ng/L in surface water, 9.0 ng/L in pore water and about 170 ng/g in floc and sediments. Mercury bioaccumulated in the biota of the Refuge: fish fillets (Centrarchus macropterus, Esox niger, Lepomus gulosus and Amia calva) had >2 ?g/g dry weight, alligators (Alligator mississippiensis) >4 ?g/g dry weight in liver and kidney, and raccoons (Procyon lotor) >16 ?g/g dry weight in the liver and kidney. Lead averaged 1 ?g/L in rainfall, 6.6 ?g/L in surface water, 9.8 ?g/L in pore water, 12.3 ?g/g in floc and 12.5 ?g/g in sediments. Lead in fish muscle was ~0.1 ?g/g and >1.2 ?g/g in bone, alligator kidney had 1.5 ?g/g lead and liver had 3.8 ?g/g; raccoon kidney and liver averaged about 1 ?g/g. Historical patterns of mercury deposition based on 210Pb aging of the core sample showed mercury increased from pre-1800 concentrations of 500 ng/g in the 1950s, with a subsequent decline to current levels. Lead concentrations in the core sample followed a similar pattern as that of mercury. Okefenokee Swamp serves as a sump for the cations and anions deposited through rainfall. Although mercury and lead levels in the biota are not currently acutely hazardous, concentrations are high enough to cause adverse chronic effects on behavioral, physiological or reproductive functions of resident biota, especially piscivorous species. To protect trust resources associated with the Refuge, activities and developments in the airshed that have the potential to increase atmospheric contamination, especially for lead and mercury, should be curtailed.

Urban Expansion Modeling Approach Based on Multi-Agent System and Cellular Automata

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zeng, Y. N.; Yu, M. M.; Li, S. N.

2018-04-01

Urban expansion is a land-use change process that transforms non-urban land into urban land. This process results in the loss of natural vegetation and increase in impervious surfaces. Urban expansion also alters the hydrologic cycling, atmospheric circulation, and nutrient cycling processes and generates enormous environmental and social impacts. Urban expansion monitoring and modeling are crucial to understanding urban expansion process, mechanism, and its environmental impacts, and predicting urban expansion in future scenarios. Therefore, it is important to study urban expansion monitoring and modeling approaches. We proposed to simulate urban expansion by combining CA and MAS model. The proposed urban expansion model based on MSA and CA was applied to a case study area of Changsha-Zhuzhou-Xiangtan urban agglomeration, China. The results show that this model can capture urban expansion with good adaptability. The Kappa coefficient of the simulation results is 0.75, which indicated that the combination of MAS and CA offered the better simulation result.

Preliminary Analysis of the efficacy of Artificial neural Network (ANN) and Cellular Automaton (CA) based Land Use Models in Urban Land-Use Planning

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Harun, R.

2013-05-01

This research provides an opportunity of collaboration between urban planners and modellers by providing a clear theoretical foundations on the two most widely used urban land use models, and assessing the effectiveness of applying the models in urban planning context. Understanding urban land cover change is an essential element for sustainable urban development as it affects ecological functioning in urban ecosystem. Rapid urbanization due to growing inclination of people to settle in urban areas has increased the complexities in predicting that at what shape and size cities will grow. The dynamic changes in the spatial pattern of urban landscapes has exposed the policy makers and environmental scientists to great challenge. But geographic science has grown in symmetry to the advancements in computer science. Models and tools are developed to support urban planning by analyzing the causes and consequences of land use changes and project the future. Of all the different types of land use models available in recent days, it has been found by researchers that the most frequently used models are Cellular Automaton (CA) and Artificial Neural Networks (ANN) models. But studies have demonstrated that the existing land use models have not been able to meet the needs of planners and policy makers. There are two primary causes identified behind this prologue. First, there is inadequate understanding of the fundamental theories and application of the models in urban planning context i.e., there is a gap in communication between modellers and urban planners. Second, the existing models exclude many key drivers in the process of simplification of the complex urban system that guide urban spatial pattern. Thus the models end up being effective in assessing the impacts of certain land use policies, but cannot contribute in new policy formulation. This paper is an attempt to increase the knowledge base of planners on the most frequently used land use model and also assess the relative effectiveness of the two models, ANN and CA, in urban planning. The questions that are addressed in this research are: a) What makes ANN models different from CA models?; b) Which model has higher accuracy in predicting future urban land use change?; and c) Are the models effective enough in guiding urban land use policies and strategies? The models that are used for this research are Multilayer Perceptron (MLP) and CA model, available in IDRISI Taiga. Since, the objective is to perform a comparative analysis and draw general inferences irrespective of specific urban policies, the availability of data was given more emphasis over the selection of particular location. Urban area in Massachusetts was chosen to conduct the study due to data availability. Extensive literature review was performed to understand the functionality of the two models. The models were applied to predict future changes and the accuracy assessment was performed using standard matrix. Inferences were drawn about the applicability of the models in urban planning context along with recommendations. This research will not only develop understanding of land use models among urban planners, but also will create an environment of coupled research between planners and modellers.

Modelling the urban water cycle as an integrated part of the city: a review.

PubMed

Urich, Christian; Rauch, Wolfgang

2014-01-01

In contrast to common perceptions, the urban water infrastructure system is a complex and dynamic system that is constantly evolving and adapting to changes in the urban environment, to sustain existing services and provide additional ones. Instead of simplifying urban water infrastructure to a static system that is decoupled from its urban context, new management strategies use the complexity of the system to their advantage by integrating centralised with decentralised solutions and explicitly embedding water systems into their urban form. However, to understand and test possible adaptation strategies, urban water modelling tools are required to support exploration of their effectiveness as the human-technology-environment system coevolves under different future scenarios. The urban water modelling community has taken first steps to developing these new modelling tools. This paper critically reviews the historical development of urban water modelling tools and provides a summary of the current state of integrated modelling approaches. It reflects on the challenges that arise through the current practice of coupling urban water management tools with urban development models and discusses a potential pathway towards a new generation of modelling tools.

BUDEM: an urban growth simulation model using CA for Beijing metropolitan area

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Long, Ying; Shen, Zhenjiang; Du, Liqun; Mao, Qizhi; Gao, Zhanping

2008-10-01

It is in great need of identifying the future urban form of Beijing, which faces challenges of rapid growth in urban development projects implemented in Beijing. We develop Beijing Urban Developing Model (BUDEM in short) to support urban planning and corresponding policies evaluation. BUDEM is the spatio-temporal dynamic model for simulating urban growth in Beijing metropolitan area, using cellular automata (CA) and Multi-agent system (MAS) approaches. In this phase, the computer simulation using CA in Beijing metropolitan area is conducted, which attempts to provide a premise of urban activities including different kinds of urban development projects for industrial plants, shopping facilities, houses. In the paper, concept model of BUDEM is introduced, which is established basing on prevalent urban growth theories. The method integrating logistic regression and MonoLoop is used to retrieve weights in the transition rule by MCE. After model sensibility analysis, we apply BUDEM into three aspects of urban planning practices: (1) Identifying urban growth mechanism in various historical phases since 1986; (2) Identifying urban growth policies needed to implement desired urban form (BEIJING2020), namely planned urban form; (3) Simulating urban growth scenarios of 2049 (BEIJING2049) basing on the urban form and parameter set of BEIJING2020.

Benefits of explicit urban parameterization in regional climate modeling to study climate and city interactions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Daniel, M.; Lemonsu, Aude; Déqué, M.; Somot, S.; Alias, A.; Masson, V.

2018-06-01

Most climate models do not explicitly model urban areas and at best describe them as rock covers. Nonetheless, the very high resolutions reached now by the regional climate models may justify and require a more realistic parameterization of surface exchanges between urban canopy and atmosphere. To quantify the potential impact of urbanization on the regional climate, and evaluate the benefits of a detailed urban canopy model compared with a simpler approach, a sensitivity study was carried out over France at a 12-km horizontal resolution with the ALADIN-Climate regional model for 1980-2009 time period. Different descriptions of land use and urban modeling were compared, corresponding to an explicit modeling of cities with the urban canopy model TEB, a conventional and simpler approach representing urban areas as rocks, and a vegetated experiment for which cities are replaced by natural covers. A general evaluation of ALADIN-Climate was first done, that showed an overestimation of the incoming solar radiation but satisfying results in terms of precipitation and near-surface temperatures. The sensitivity analysis then highlighted that urban areas had a significant impact on modeled near-surface temperature. A further analysis on a few large French cities indicated that over the 30 years of simulation they all induced a warming effect both at daytime and nighttime with values up to + 1.5 °C for the city of Paris. The urban model also led to a regional warming extending beyond the urban areas boundaries. Finally, the comparison to temperature observations available for Paris area highlighted that the detailed urban canopy model improved the modeling of the urban heat island compared with a simpler approach.

An inter-model comparison of urban canopy effects on climate

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Halenka, Tomas; Karlicky, Jan; Huszar, Peter; Belda, Michal; Bardachova, Tatsiana

2017-04-01

The role of cities is increasing and will continue to increase in future, as the population within the urban areas is growing faster, with the estimate for Europe of about 84% living in urban areas in about mid of 21st century. To assess the impact of cities and, in general, urban surfaces on climate, using of modeling approach is well appropriate. Moreover, with higher resolution, urban areas becomes to be better resolved in the regional models and their relatively significant impacts should not be neglected. Model descriptions of urban canopy related meteorological effects can, however, differ largely given the odds in the driving models, the underlying surface models and the urban canopy parameterizations, representing a certain uncertainty. In this study we try to contribute to the estimation of this uncertainty by performing numerous experiments to assess the urban canopy meteorological forcing over central Europe on climate for the decade 2001-2010, using two driving models (RegCM4 and WRF) in 10 km resolution driven by ERA-Interim reanalyses, three surface schemes (BATS and CLM4.5 for RegCM4 and Noah for WRF) and five urban canopy parameterizations available: one bulk urban scheme, three single layer and a multilayer urban scheme. Actually, in RegCM4 we used our implementation of the Single Layer Urban Canopy Model (SLUCM) in BATS scheme and CLM4.5 option with urban parameterization based on SLUCM concept as well, in WRF we used all the three options, i.e. bulk, SLUCM and more complex and sophisticated Building Environment Parameterization (BEP) connected with Building Energy Model (BEM). As a reference simulations, runs with no urban areas and with no urban parameterizations were performed. Effects of cities on urban and rural areas were evaluated. Effect of reducing diurnal temperature range in cities (around 2 °C in summer) is noticeable in all simulation, independent to urban parameterization type and model. Also well-known warmer summer city nights appear in all simulations. Further, winter boundary layer increase by 100-200 m, together with wind reduction, is visible in all simulations. The spatial distribution of the night-time temperature response of models to urban canopy forcing is rather similar in each set-up, showing temperature increases up to 3°C in summer. In general, much lower increase are modeled for day-time conditions, which can be even slightly negative due to dominance of shadowing in urban canyons, especially in the morning hours. The winter temperature response, driven mainly by anthropogenic heat (AH) is strong in urban schemes where the building-street energy exchange is more resolved and is smaller, where AH is simply prescribed as additive flux to the sensible heat. Somewhat larger differences between the models are encountered for the response of wind and the height of planetary boundary layer (ZPBL), with dominant increases from a few 10 m up to 250 m depending on the model. The comparison of observation of diurnal temperature amplitude from ECAD data with model results and hourly data from Prague with model hourly values show improvement when urban effects are considered. Larger spread encountered for wind and turbulence (as ZPBL) should be considered when choices of urban canopy schemes are made, especially in connection with modeling transport of pollutants within/from cities. Another conclusion is that choosing more complex urban schemes does not necessary improves model performance and using simpler and computationally less demanding (e.g. single layer) urban schemes, is often sufficient.

Overview of the Mathematical and Empirical Receptor Models Workshop (Quail Roost II)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Stevens, Robert K.; Pace, Thompson G.

On 14-17 March 1982, the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency sponsored the Mathematical and Empirical Receptor Models Workshop (Quail Roost II) at the Quail Roost Conference Center, Rougemont, NC. Thirty-five scientists were invited to participate. The objective of the workshop was to document and compare results of source apportionment analyses of simulated and real aerosol data sets. The simulated data set was developed by scientists from the National Bureau of Standards. It consisted of elemental mass data generated using a dispersion model that simulated transport of aerosols from a variety of sources to a receptor site. The real data set contained the mass, elemental, and ionic species concentrations of samples obtained in 18 consecutive 12-h sampling periods in Houston, TX. Some participants performed additional analyses of the Houston filters by X-ray powder diffraction, scanning electron microscopy, or light microscopy. Ten groups analyzed these data sets using a variety of modeling procedures. The results of the modeling exercises were evaluated and structured in a manner that permitted model intercomparisons. The major conclusions and recommendations derived from the intercomparisons were: (1) using aerosol elemental composition data, receptor models can resolve major emission sources, but additional analyses (including light microscopy and X-ray diffraction) significantly increase the number of sources that can be resolved; (2) simulated data sets that contain up to 6 dissimilar emission sources need to be generated, so that different receptor models can be adequately compared; (3) source apportionment methods need to be modified to incorporate a means of apportioning such aerosol species as sulfate and nitrate formed from SO 2 and NO, respectively, because current models tend to resolve particles into chemical species rather than to deduce their sources and (4) a source signature library may be required to be compiled for each airshed in order to improve the resolving capabilities of receptor models.

The use of an atmospheric dispersion model to determine influence regions in the Prince George, B.C. airshed from the burning of open wood waste piles.

PubMed

Ainslie, B; Jackson, P L

2009-06-01

A means of determining air emission source regions adversely influencing the city of Prince George, British Columbia, Canada from potential burning of isolated piles of mountain pine beetle-killed lodge pole pine is presented. The analysis uses the CALPUFF atmospheric dispersion model to identify safe burning regions based on atmospheric stability and wind direction. Model results show that the location and extent of influence regions is sensitive to wind speed, wind direction, atmospheric stability and a threshold used to quantify excessive concentrations. A concentration threshold based on the Canada Wide PM(2.5) Standard is used to delineate the influence regions while Environment Canada's (EC) daily ventilation index (VI) is used to quantify local atmospheric stability. Results from the analysis, to be used by air quality meteorologists in assessing daily requests for burning permits, are presented as a series of maps delineating acceptable burning locations for sources placed at various distances from the city center and under different ventilation conditions. The results show that no burning should be allowed within 10 km of the city center; under poor ventilation conditions, no burning should be allowed within 20 km of the city center; under good ventilation conditions, burning can be allowed within 10-15 km of the city center; under good to fair ventilation conditions, burning can be allowed beyond 15 km of the city center; and if the wind direction can be reliably forecast, burning can be allowed between 5 and 10 km downwind of the city center under good ventilation conditions.

The Urban Food-Water Nexus: Modeling Water Footprints of Urban Agriculture using CityCrop

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tooke, T. R.; Lathuilliere, M. J.; Coops, N. C.; Johnson, M. S.

2014-12-01

Urban agriculture provides a potential contribution towards more sustainable food production and mitigating some of the human impacts that accompany volatility in regional and global food supply. When considering the capacity of urban landscapes to produce food products, the impact of urban water demand required for food production in cities is often neglected. Urban agricultural studies also tend to be undertaken at broad spatial scales, overlooking the heterogeneity of urban form that exerts an extreme influence on the urban energy balance. As a result, urban planning and management practitioners require, but often do not have, spatially explicit and detailed information to support informed urban agricultural policy, especially as it relates to potential conflicts with sustainability goals targeting water-use. In this research we introduce a new model, CityCrop, a hybrid evapotranspiration-plant growth model that incorporates detailed digital representations of the urban surface and biophysical impacts of the built environment and urban trees to account for the daily variations in net surface radiation. The model enables very fine-scale (sub-meter) estimates of water footprints of potential urban agricultural production. Results of the model are demonstrated for an area in the City of Vancouver, Canada and compared to aspatial model estimates, demonstrating the unique considerations and sensitivities for current and future water footprints of urban agriculture and the implications for urban water planning and policy.

Integrated city as a model for a new wave urban tourism

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ariani, V.

2018-03-01

Cities are a major player for an urban tourism destination. Massive tourism movement for urban tourism gains competitiveness to the city with similar characteristic. The new framework model for new wave urban tourism is crucial to give more experience to the tourist and valuing for the city itself. The integrated city is the answer for creating a new model for an urban tourism destination. The purpose of this preliminary research is to define integrated city framework for urban tourism development. It provides a rationale for tourism planner pursuing an innovative approach, competitive advantages, and general urban tourism destination model. The methodology applies to this research includes desk survey, literature review and focus group discussion. A conceptual framework is proposed, discussed and exemplified. The framework model adopts a place-based approach to tourism destination and suggests an integrated city model for urban tourism development. This model is a tool for strategy making in re-invention integrated city as an urban tourism destination.

The relationship between changes in daily air pollution and hospitalizations in Perth, Australia 1992-1998: a case-crossover study.

PubMed

Hinwood, A L; De Klerk, N; Rodriguez, C; Jacoby, P; Runnion, T; Rye, P; Landau, L; Murray, F; Feldwick, M; Spickett, J

2006-02-01

A case-crossover study was undertaken to investigate the relationship between daily air pollutant concentrations and daily hospitalizations for selected disease categories in Perth, Western Australia. Daily measurements of particles (measured by nephelometry and PM2.5), photochemical oxidants (measured as ozone), nitrogen dioxide (NO2) and carbon monoxide (CO) concentrations were obtained from 1992 to 1998 via a metropolitan network of monitoring stations. Daily PM2.5 concentrations were estimated using monitored data, modelling and interpolation. Hospital morbidity data for respiratory, cardiovascular (CVD), gastrointestinal (GI) diseases, chronic obstructive pulmonary diseases (COPD) excluding asthma; pneumonia/influenza diseases; and asthma were obtained and categorized into all ages, less than 15 years and greater than 65 years. Gastrointestinal morbidity was used as a control disease. The data were analyzed using conditional logistic regression. The results showed a small number of significant associations for daily changes in particle concentrations, nitrogen dioxide and carbon monoxide for the respiratory diseases, CODP, pneumonia, asthma and CVD hospitalizations. Changes in ozone concentrations were not significantly associated with any disease outcomes. These data provide useful information on the potential health impacts of air pollution in an airshed with very low sulphur dioxide concentrations and lower nitrogen dioxide concentrations commonly found in many other cities.

[Urbanization expanding process and its spatial characteristics in changping district of Beijing, China].

PubMed

Zhang, Feng; Zhang, Xinshi

2005-06-01

Urbanization is a massive and unplanned experiment that already affects large acreages worldwide, and has profound social and ecological consequences for both urban and rural residents. Therefore, to comprehensively quantify the urbanization process and to investigate its ecological consequences become the central issues in urban ecological studies. Combining urbanization expanding index with landscape metrics, this paper quantified the urbanization expanding process and the urbanization spatial characteristics in Changping District of Beijing. The results showed that there were three main urbanization models, i. e., urban fringe belt-expending model, main transportation routes line-expending model, and satellite city panel-expending model. The urbanization expansion index showed that urbanization mainly took place during the period from 1989 to 1996, and the urban landscape metrics indicated that there were urban patches isolated expanding and new urban patches emerged from 1989 to 1996, mainly amalgamated expanding from 1996 to 2001 in urban fringe belt-expanding region. In transportation routes line-expanding region, the urban patches isolated expanding, amalgamated expanding and new urban patches emerging took place simultaneously, and mainly urban patches amalgamated expanding during the former period, and new urban patches constantly turning up around satellite city during the latter in satellite city panel-expanding region. This study showed that urbanization expansion integrating landscape metrics might reveal the urbanization expanding process and its spatial characteristics, and would be a good example for the application of landscape metrics.

Persistent Monitoring of Urban Infrasound Phenomenology-Report 2: Investigation of Structural Infrasound Signals in an Urban Environment

DTIC Science & Technology

2016-11-01

space houses, etc.), and the unique weather environments that occur in the Urban Heat Island. A detailed urban terrain model was developed in a...affected by urban infrastructure (large buildings, roadways, densely space houses, etc.). A detailed urban terrain model was developed ERDC TR-15-5...different points in the model provided insight to complex propagation paths characteristic of urban environments. ERDC TR-15-5; Report 2 20 4

Bioavailable transition metals in particulate matter mediate cardiopulmonary injury in healthy and compromised animal models.

PubMed Central

Costa, D L; Dreher, K L

1997-01-01

Many epidemiologic reports associate ambient levels of particulate matter (PM) with human mortality and morbidity, particularly in people with preexisting cardiopulmonary disease (e.g., chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, infection, asthma). Because much ambient PM is derived from combustion sources, we tested the hypothesis that the health effects of PM arise from anthropogenic PM that contains bioavailable transition metals. The PM samples studied derived from three emission sources (two oil and one coal fly ash) and four ambient airsheds (St. Louis, MO; Washington; Dusseldorf, Germany; and Ottawa, Canada). PM was administered to rats by intratracheal instillation in equimass or equimetal doses to address directly the influence of PM mass versus metal content on acute lung injury and inflammation. Our results indicated that the lung dose of bioavailable transition metal, not instilled PM mass, was the primary determinant of the acute inflammatory response for both the combustion source and ambient PM samples. Residual oil fly ash, a combustion PM rich in bioavailable metal, was evaluated in a rat model of cardiopulmonary disease (pulmonary vasculitis/hypertension) to ascertain whether the disease state augmented sensitivity to that PM. Significant mortality and enhanced airway responsiveness were observed. Analysis of the lavaged lung fluids suggested that the milieu of the inflamed lung amplified metal-mediated oxidant chemistry to jeopardize the compromised cardiopulmonary system. We propose that soluble metals from PM mediate the array of PM-associated injuries to the cardiopulmonary system of the healthy and at-risk compromised host. PMID:9400700

A new assessment method for urbanization environmental impact: urban environment entropy model and its application.

PubMed

Ouyang, Tingping; Fu, Shuqing; Zhu, Zhaoyu; Kuang, Yaoqiu; Huang, Ningsheng; Wu, Zhifeng

2008-11-01

The thermodynamic law is one of the most widely used scientific principles. The comparability between the environmental impact of urbanization and the thermodynamic entropy was systematically analyzed. Consequently, the concept "Urban Environment Entropy" was brought forward and the "Urban Environment Entropy" model was established for urbanization environmental impact assessment in this study. The model was then utilized in a case study for the assessment of river water quality in the Pearl River Delta Economic Zone. The results indicated that the assessing results of the model are consistent to that of the equalized synthetic pollution index method. Therefore, it can be concluded that the Urban Environment Entropy model has high reliability and can be applied widely in urbanization environmental assessment research using many different environmental parameters.

Downscaling modelling system for multi-scale air quality forecasting

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nuterman, R.; Baklanov, A.; Mahura, A.; Amstrup, B.; Weismann, J.

2010-09-01

Urban modelling for real meteorological situations, in general, considers only a small part of the urban area in a micro-meteorological model, and urban heterogeneities outside a modelling domain affect micro-scale processes. Therefore, it is important to build a chain of models of different scales with nesting of higher resolution models into larger scale lower resolution models. Usually, the up-scaled city- or meso-scale models consider parameterisations of urban effects or statistical descriptions of the urban morphology, whereas the micro-scale (street canyon) models are obstacle-resolved and they consider a detailed geometry of the buildings and the urban canopy. The developed system consists of the meso-, urban- and street-scale models. First, it is the Numerical Weather Prediction (HIgh Resolution Limited Area Model) model combined with Atmospheric Chemistry Transport (the Comprehensive Air quality Model with extensions) model. Several levels of urban parameterisation are considered. They are chosen depending on selected scales and resolutions. For regional scale, the urban parameterisation is based on the roughness and flux corrections approach; for urban scale - building effects parameterisation. Modern methods of computational fluid dynamics allow solving environmental problems connected with atmospheric transport of pollutants within urban canopy in a presence of penetrable (vegetation) and impenetrable (buildings) obstacles. For local- and micro-scales nesting the Micro-scale Model for Urban Environment is applied. This is a comprehensive obstacle-resolved urban wind-flow and dispersion model based on the Reynolds averaged Navier-Stokes approach and several turbulent closures, i.e. k -ɛ linear eddy-viscosity model, k - ɛ non-linear eddy-viscosity model and Reynolds stress model. Boundary and initial conditions for the micro-scale model are used from the up-scaled models with corresponding interpolation conserving the mass. For the boundaries a kind of Dirichlet condition is chosen to provide the values based on interpolation from the coarse to the fine grid. When the roughness approach is changed to the obstacle-resolved one in the nested model, the interpolation procedure will increase the computational time (due to additional iterations) for meteorological/ chemical fields inside the urban sub-layer. In such situations, as a possible alternative, the perturbation approach can be applied. Here, the effects of main meteorological variables and chemical species are considered as a sum of two components: background (large-scale) values, described by the coarse-resolution model, and perturbations (micro-scale) features, obtained from the nested fine resolution model.

A Harris-Todaro Agent-Based Model to Rural-Urban Migration

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Espíndola, Aquino L.; Silveira, Jaylson J.; Penna, T. J. P.

2006-09-01

The Harris-Todaro model of the rural-urban migration process is revisited under an agent-based approach. The migration of the workers is interpreted as a process of social learning by imitation, formalized by a computational model. By simulating this model, we observe a transitional dynamics with continuous growth of the urban fraction of overall population toward an equilibrium. Such an equilibrium is characterized by stabilization of rural-urban expected wages differential (generalized Harris-Todaro equilibrium condition), urban concentration and urban unemployment. These classic results obtained originally by Harris and Todaro are emergent properties of our model.

Street Level Hydrology: An Urban Application of the WRF-Hydro Framework in Denver, Colorado

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Read, L.; Hogue, T. S.; Salas, F. R.; Gochis, D.

2015-12-01

Urban flood modeling at the watershed scale carries unique challenges in routing complexity, data resolution, social and political issues, and land surface - infrastructure interactions. The ability to accurately trace and predict the flow of water through the urban landscape enables better emergency response management, floodplain mapping, and data for future urban infrastructure planning and development. These services are of growing importance as urban population is expected to continue increasing by 1.84% per year for the next 25 years, increasing the vulnerability of urban regions to damages and loss of life from floods. Although a range of watershed-scale models have been applied in specific urban areas to examine these issues, there is a trend towards national scale hydrologic modeling enabled by supercomputing resources to understand larger system-wide hydrologic impacts and feedbacks. As such it is important to address how urban landscapes can be represented in large scale modeling processes. The current project investigates how coupling terrain and infrastructure routing can improve flow prediction and flooding events over the urban landscape. We utilize the WRF-Hydro modeling framework and a high-resolution terrain routing grid with the goal of compiling standard data needs necessary for fine scale urban modeling and dynamic flood forecasting in the urban setting. The city of Denver is selected as a case study, as it has experienced several large flooding events in the last five years and has an urban annual population growth rate of 1.5%, one of the highest in the U.S. Our work highlights the hydro-informatic challenges associated with linking channel networks and drainage infrastructure in an urban area using the WRF-Hydro modeling framework and high resolution urban models for short-term flood prediction.

Modeling urbanized watershed flood response changes with distributed hydrological model: key hydrological processes, parameterization and case studies

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chen, Y.

2017-12-01

Urbanization is the world development trend for the past century, and the developing countries have been experiencing much rapider urbanization in the past decades. Urbanization brings many benefits to human beings, but also causes negative impacts, such as increasing flood risk. Impact of urbanization on flood response has long been observed, but quantitatively studying this effect still faces great challenges. For example, setting up an appropriate hydrological model representing the changed flood responses and determining accurate model parameters are very difficult in the urbanized or urbanizing watershed. In the Pearl River Delta area, rapidest urbanization has been observed in China for the past decades, and dozens of highly urbanized watersheds have been appeared. In this study, a physically based distributed watershed hydrological model, the Liuxihe model is employed and revised to simulate the hydrological processes of the highly urbanized watershed flood in the Pearl River Delta area. A virtual soil type is then defined in the terrain properties dataset, and its runoff production and routing algorithms are added to the Liuxihe model. Based on a parameter sensitive analysis, the key hydrological processes of a highly urbanized watershed is proposed, that provides insight into the hydrological processes and for parameter optimization. Based on the above analysis, the model is set up in the Songmushan watershed where there is hydrological data observation. A model parameter optimization and updating strategy is proposed based on the remotely sensed LUC types, which optimizes model parameters with PSO algorithm and updates them based on the changed LUC types. The model parameters in Songmushan watershed are regionalized at the Pearl River Delta area watersheds based on the LUC types of the other watersheds. A dozen watersheds in the highly urbanized area of Dongguan City in the Pearl River Delta area were studied for the flood response changes due to urbanization, and the results show urbanization has big impact on the watershed flood responses. The peak flow increased a few times after urbanization which is much higher than previous reports.

Using Multivariate Adaptive Regression Spline and Artificial Neural Network to Simulate Urbanization in Mumbai, India

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ahmadlou, M.; Delavar, M. R.; Tayyebi, A.; Shafizadeh-Moghadam, H.

2015-12-01

Land use change (LUC) models used for modelling urban growth are different in structure and performance. Local models divide the data into separate subsets and fit distinct models on each of the subsets. Non-parametric models are data driven and usually do not have a fixed model structure or model structure is unknown before the modelling process. On the other hand, global models perform modelling using all the available data. In addition, parametric models have a fixed structure before the modelling process and they are model driven. Since few studies have compared local non-parametric models with global parametric models, this study compares a local non-parametric model called multivariate adaptive regression spline (MARS), and a global parametric model called artificial neural network (ANN) to simulate urbanization in Mumbai, India. Both models determine the relationship between a dependent variable and multiple independent variables. We used receiver operating characteristic (ROC) to compare the power of the both models for simulating urbanization. Landsat images of 1991 (TM) and 2010 (ETM+) were used for modelling the urbanization process. The drivers considered for urbanization in this area were distance to urban areas, urban density, distance to roads, distance to water, distance to forest, distance to railway, distance to central business district, number of agricultural cells in a 7 by 7 neighbourhoods, and slope in 1991. The results showed that the area under the ROC curve for MARS and ANN was 94.77% and 95.36%, respectively. Thus, ANN performed slightly better than MARS to simulate urban areas in Mumbai, India.

Recirculation, stagnation and ventilation: The 2014 legionella episode

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Russo, Ana; Soares, Pedro M. M.; Gouveia, Célia M.; Cardoso, Rita M.; Trigo, Ricardo M.

2017-04-01

Legionella transmission through the atmosphere is unusual, but not unprecedented. A scientific paper published in 2006 reports a surge in Pas-de-Calais, France, in which 86 people have been infected by bacteria released by a cooling tower more than 6 km away [3]. Similarly, in Norway, in 2005, there was another case where contamination spread beyond 10 km, although more concentrated within a radius of 1 km from an industrial unit [2]. An unprecedented large Legionella outbreak occurred in November 2014 nearby Lisbon, Portugal. As of 7 November 2014, 375 individuals become hill and 12 died infected by the Legionella pneumophila bacteria, contracted by inhalation of steam droplets of contaminated water (aerosols). These droplets are so small that can carry the bacteria directly to the lungs, depositing it in the alveoli. One way of studying the propagation of legionella episodes is through the use of aerosol dispersion models. However, such approaches often require detailed 3D high resolution wind data over the region, which isn't often available for long periods. The likely impact of wind on legionella transmission can also be understood based on the analysis of special types of flow conditions such as stagnation, recirculation and ventilation [1, 4]. The Allwine and Whiteman (AW) approach constitutes a straightforward method to assess the assimilative and dispersal capacities of different airsheds [1,4], as it only requires hourly wind components. Thus, it has the advantage of not needing surface and upper air meteorological observations and a previous knowledge of the atmospheric transport and dispersion conditions. The objective of this study is to analyze if the legionella outbreak event which took place in November 2014 had extreme potential recirculation and/or stagnation characteristics. In order to accomplish the proposed objective, the AW approach was applied for a hindcast time-series covering the affected area (1989-2007) and then for an independent period covering the 2014 event (7-25 November 2014). Hourly zonal (u) and meridional (v) wind components were retrieved from hindcast regional climate simulation covering the whole Iberian Peninsula (IP) with a spatial resolution of 9 km. This simulation was performed with the WRF model and for this study, the u and v components were extracted for a set of 12 points of the simulation grid around Lisbon. The preliminary results regarding the average daily critical transport indices for the 1989-2007 period clearly indicate that the airshed is prone to ventilation as these events have a dominant presence through most of the study period (72%), relatively to the occurrence of recirculation (10%) and stagnation (<2%) events. Comparatively to the 1989-2007 period, the 2014 episode is truly exceptional. [1] Allwine KJ, Whiteman CD., 1994. Atmospheric Environment 28: 713-721. [2] Blystad H, Brantsæter AB, Løvoll Ø., 2005. Eurosurveillance weekly release, 10(5) [3] Nguyen T, Ilef D, Jarraud S, Rouil L, Campese C, Che D, Haeghebaert S, Ganiayre F, Marcel F, Etienne J, Desenclos J-C, 2006. The Journal of Infectious Diseases, 193, 1, 102-111. [4] Mohan M, Bhati S. 2012. Journal of Civil & Environmental Engineering, S1:003.

The impact of urbanization and population density on childhood Plasmodium falciparum parasite prevalence rates in Africa.

PubMed

Kabaria, Caroline W; Gilbert, Marius; Noor, Abdisalan M; Snow, Robert W; Linard, Catherine

2017-01-26

Although malaria has been traditionally regarded as less of a problem in urban areas compared to neighbouring rural areas, the risk of malaria infection continues to exist in densely populated, urban areas of Africa. Despite the recognition that urbanization influences the epidemiology of malaria, there is little consensus on urbanization relevant for malaria parasite mapping. Previous studies examining the relationship between urbanization and malaria transmission have used products defining urbanization at global/continental scales developed in the early 2000s, that overestimate actual urban extents while the population estimates are over 15 years old and estimated at administrative unit level. This study sought to discriminate an urbanization definition that is most relevant for malaria parasite mapping using individual level malaria infection data obtained from nationally representative household-based surveys. Boosted regression tree (BRT) modelling was used to determine the effect of urbanization on malaria transmission and if this effect varied with urbanization definition. In addition, the most recent high resolution population distribution data was used to determine whether population density had significant effect on malaria parasite prevalence and if so, could population density replace urban classifications in modelling malaria transmission patterns. The risk of malaria infection was shown to decline from rural areas through peri-urban settlements to urban central areas. Population density was found to be an important predictor of malaria risk. The final boosted regression trees (BRT) model with urbanization and population density gave the best model fit (Tukey test p value <0.05) compared to the models with urbanization only. Given the challenges in uniformly classifying urban areas across different countries, population density provides a reliable metric to adjust for the patterns of malaria risk in densely populated urban areas. Future malaria risk models can, therefore, be improved by including both population density and urbanization which have both been shown to have significant impact on malaria risk in this study.

A new framework for modeling urban land expansion in peri-urban area by combining multi-source datasets and data assimilation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, Z.; Xiao, R.; Li, X.

2015-12-01

Peri-urban area is a new type region under the impacts of both rural Industrialization and the radiation of metropolitan during rapid urbanization. Due to its complex natural and social characteristics and unique development patterns, many problems such as environmental pollution and land use waste emerged, which became an urgent issue to be addressed. Study area in this paper covers three typical peri-urban districts (Pudong, Fengxian and Jinshan), which around the Shanghai inner city. By coupling cellular automata and multi-agent system model as the basic tools, this research focus on modelling the urban land expansion and driving mechanism in peri-urban area. The big data is aslo combined with the Bayesian maximum entropy method (BME) for spatiotemporal prediction of multi-source data, which expand the dataset of urban expansion models. Data assimilation method is used to optimize the parameters of the coupling model and minimize the uncertainty of observations, improving the precision of future simulation in peri-urban area. By setting quantitative parameters, the coupling model can effectively improve the simulation of the process of urban land expansion under different policies and management schemes, in order to provide scientificimplications for new urbanization strategy. In this research, we precise the urban land expansion simulation and prediction for peri-urban area, expand the scopes and selections of data acquisition measurements and methods, develop the new applications of the data assimilation method in geographical science, provide a new idea for understanding the inherent rules of urban land expansion, and give theoretical and practical support for the peri-urban area in urban planning and decision making.

Evaluation of the WRF-Urban Modeling System Coupled to Noah and Noah-MP Land Surface Models Over a Semiarid Urban Environment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Salamanca, Francisco; Zhang, Yizhou; Barlage, Michael; Chen, Fei; Mahalov, Alex; Miao, Shiguang

2018-03-01

We have augmented the existing capabilities of the integrated Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF)-urban modeling system by coupling three urban canopy models (UCMs) available in the WRF model with the new community Noah with multiparameterization options (Noah-MP) land surface model (LSM). The WRF-urban modeling system's performance has been evaluated by conducting six numerical experiments at high spatial resolution (1 km horizontal grid spacing) during a 15 day clear-sky summertime period for a semiarid urban environment. To assess the relative importance of representing urban surfaces, three different urban parameterizations are used with the Noah and Noah-MP LSMs, respectively, over the two major cities of Arizona: Phoenix and Tucson metropolitan areas. Our results demonstrate that Noah-MP reproduces somewhat better than Noah the daily evolution of surface skin temperature and near-surface air temperature (especially nighttime temperature) and wind speed. Concerning the urban areas, bulk urban parameterization overestimates nighttime 2 m air temperature compared to the single-layer and multilayer UCMs that reproduce more accurately the daily evolution of near-surface air temperature. Regarding near-surface wind speed, only the multilayer UCM was able to reproduce realistically the daily evolution of wind speed, although maximum winds were slightly overestimated, while both the single-layer and bulk urban parameterizations overestimated wind speed considerably. Based on these results, this paper demonstrates that the new community Noah-MP LSM coupled to an UCM is a promising physics-based predictive modeling tool for urban applications.

Modeling urban expansion in Yangon, Myanmar using Landsat time-series and stereo GeoEye Images

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sritarapipat, Tanakorn; Takeuchi, Wataru

2016-06-01

This research proposed a methodology to model the urban expansion based dynamic statistical model using Landsat and GeoEye Images. Landsat Time-Series from 1978 to 2010 have been applied to extract land covers from the past to the present. Stereo GeoEye Images have been employed to obtain the height of the building. The class translation was obtained by observing land cover from the past to the present. The height of the building can be used to detect the center of the urban area (mainly commercial area). It was assumed that the class translation and the distance of multi-centers of the urban area also the distance of the roads affect the urban growth. The urban expansion model based on the dynamic statistical model was defined to refer to three factors; (1) the class translation, (2) the distance of the multicenters of the urban areas, and (3) the distance from the roads. Estimation and prediction of urban expansion by using our model were formulated and expressed in this research. The experimental area was set up in Yangon, Myanmar. Since it is the major of country's economic with more than five million population and the urban areas have rapidly increased. The experimental results indicated that our model of urban expansion estimated urban growth in both estimation and prediction steps in efficiency.

Research on application of intelligent computation based LUCC model in urbanization process

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chen, Zemin

2007-06-01

Global change study is an interdisciplinary and comprehensive research activity with international cooperation, arising in 1980s, with the largest scopes. The interaction between land use and cover change, as a research field with the crossing of natural science and social science, has become one of core subjects of global change study as well as the front edge and hot point of it. It is necessary to develop research on land use and cover change in urbanization process and build an analog model of urbanization to carry out description, simulation and analysis on dynamic behaviors in urban development change as well as to understand basic characteristics and rules of urbanization process. This has positive practical and theoretical significance for formulating urban and regional sustainable development strategy. The effect of urbanization on land use and cover change is mainly embodied in the change of quantity structure and space structure of urban space, and LUCC model in urbanization process has been an important research subject of urban geography and urban planning. In this paper, based upon previous research achievements, the writer systematically analyzes the research on land use/cover change in urbanization process with the theories of complexity science research and intelligent computation; builds a model for simulating and forecasting dynamic evolution of urban land use and cover change, on the basis of cellular automation model of complexity science research method and multi-agent theory; expands Markov model, traditional CA model and Agent model, introduces complexity science research theory and intelligent computation theory into LUCC research model to build intelligent computation-based LUCC model for analog research on land use and cover change in urbanization research, and performs case research. The concrete contents are as follows: 1. Complexity of LUCC research in urbanization process. Analyze urbanization process in combination with the contents of complexity science research and the conception of complexity feature to reveal the complexity features of LUCC research in urbanization process. Urban space system is a complex economic and cultural phenomenon as well as a social process, is the comprehensive characterization of urban society, economy and culture, and is a complex space system formed by society, economy and nature. It has dissipative structure characteristics, such as opening, dynamics, self-organization, non-balance etc. Traditional model cannot simulate these social, economic and natural driving forces of LUCC including main feedback relation from LUCC to driving force. 2. Establishment of Markov extended model of LUCC analog research in urbanization process. Firstly, use traditional LUCC research model to compute change speed of regional land use through calculating dynamic degree, exploitation degree and consumption degree of land use; use the theory of fuzzy set to rewrite the traditional Markov model, establish structure transfer matrix of land use, forecast and analyze dynamic change and development trend of land use, and present noticeable problems and corresponding measures in urbanization process according to research results. 3. Application of intelligent computation research and complexity science research method in LUCC analog model in urbanization process. On the basis of detailed elaboration of the theory and the model of LUCC research in urbanization process, analyze the problems of existing model used in LUCC research (namely, difficult to resolve many complexity phenomena in complex urban space system), discuss possible structure realization forms of LUCC analog research in combination with the theories of intelligent computation and complexity science research. Perform application analysis on BP artificial neural network and genetic algorithms of intelligent computation and CA model and MAS technology of complexity science research, discuss their theoretical origins and their own characteristics in detail, elaborate the feasibility of them in LUCC analog research, and bring forward improvement methods and measures on existing problems of this kind of model. 4. Establishment of LUCC analog model in urbanization process based on theories of intelligent computation and complexity science. Based on the research on abovementioned BP artificial neural network, genetic algorithms, CA model and multi-agent technology, put forward improvement methods and application assumption towards their expansion on geography, build LUCC analog model in urbanization process based on CA model and Agent model, realize the combination of learning mechanism of BP artificial neural network and fuzzy logic reasoning, express the regulation with explicit formula, and amend the initial regulation through self study; optimize network structure of LUCC analog model and methods and procedures of model parameters with genetic algorithms. In this paper, I introduce research theory and methods of complexity science into LUCC analog research and presents LUCC analog model based upon CA model and MAS theory. Meanwhile, I carry out corresponding expansion on traditional Markov model and introduce the theory of fuzzy set into data screening and parameter amendment of improved model to improve the accuracy and feasibility of Markov model in the research on land use/cover change.

Research on monocentric model of urbanization by agent-based simulation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Xue, Ling; Yang, Kaizhong

2008-10-01

Over the past years, GIS have been widely used for modeling urbanization from a variety of perspectives such as digital terrain representation and overlay analysis using cell-based data platform. Similarly, simulation of urban dynamics has been achieved with the use of Cellular Automata. In contrast to these approaches, agent-based simulation provides a much more powerful set of tools. This allows researchers to set up a counterpart for real environmental and urban systems in computer for experimentation and scenario analysis. This Paper basically reviews the research on the economic mechanism of urbanization and an agent-based monocentric model is setup for further understanding the urbanization process and mechanism in China. We build an endogenous growth model with dynamic interactions between spatial agglomeration and urban development by using agent-based simulation. It simulates the migration decisions of two main types of agents, namely rural and urban households between rural and urban area. The model contains multiple economic interactions that are crucial in understanding urbanization and industrial process in China. These adaptive agents can adjust their supply and demand according to the market situation by a learning algorithm. The simulation result shows this agent-based urban model is able to perform the regeneration and to produce likely-to-occur projections of reality.

Modelling urban growth in the Indo-Gangetic plain using nighttime OLS data and cellular automata

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Roy Chowdhury, P. K.; Maithani, Sandeep

2014-12-01

The present study demonstrates the applicability of the Operational Linescan System (OLS) sensor in modelling urban growth at regional level. The nighttime OLS data provides an easy, inexpensive way to map urban areas at a regional scale, requiring a very small volume of data. A cellular automata (CA) model was developed for simulating urban growth in the Indo-Gangetic plain; using OLS data derived maps as input. In the proposed CA model, urban growth was expressed in terms of causative factors like economy, topography, accessibility and urban infrastructure. The model was calibrated and validated based on OLS data of year 2003 and 2008 respectively using spatial metrics measures and subsequently the urban growth was predicted for the year 2020. The model predicted high urban growth in North Western part of the study area, in south eastern part growth would be concentrated around two cities, Kolkata and Howrah. While in the middle portion of the study area, i.e., Jharkhand, Bihar and Eastern Uttar Pradesh, urban growth has been predicted in form of clusters, mostly around the present big cities. These results will not only provide an input to urban planning but can also be utilized in hydrological and ecological modelling which require an estimate of future built up areas especially at regional level.

High resolution modeling of a small urban catchment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Skouri-Plakali, Ilektra; Ichiba, Abdellah; Gires, Auguste; Tchiguirinskaia, Ioulia; Schertzer, Daniel

2016-04-01

Flooding is one of the most complex issues that urban environments have to deal with. In France, flooding remains the first natural risk with 72% of decrees state of natural disaster issued between October 1982 and mid-November 2014. Flooding is a result of meteorological extremes that are usually aggravated by the hydrological behavior of urban catchments and human factors. The continuing urbanization process is indeed changing the whole urban water cycle by limiting the infiltration and promoting runoff. Urban environments are very complex systems due to their extreme variability, the interference between human activities and natural processes but also the effect of the ongoing urbanization process that changes the landscape and hardly influences their hydrologic behavior. Moreover, many recent works highlight the need to simulate all urban water processes at their specific temporal and spatial scales. However, considering urban catchments heterogeneity still challenging for urban hydrology, even after advances noticed in term of high-resolution data collection and computational resources. This issue is more to be related to the architecture of urban models being used and how far these models are ready to take into account the extreme variability of urban catchments. In this work, high spatio-temporal resolution modeling is performed for a small and well-equipped urban catchment. The aim of this work is to identify urban modeling needs in terms of spatial and temporal resolution especially for a very small urban area (3.7 ha urban catchment located in the Perreux-sur-Marne city at the southeast of Paris) MultiHydro model was selected to carry out this work, it is a physical based and fully distributed model that interacts four existing modules each of them representing a portion of the water cycle in urban environments. MultiHydro was implemented at 10m, 5m and 2m resolution. Simulations were performed at different spatio-temporal resolutions and analyzed with respect to real flow measurements. First Results coming out show improvements obtained in terms of the model performance at high spatio-temporal resolution.

Dynamic modeling of Tampa Bay urban development using parallel computing

USGS Publications Warehouse

Xian, G.; Crane, M.; Steinwand, D.

2005-01-01

Urban land use and land cover has changed significantly in the environs of Tampa Bay, Florida, over the past 50 years. Extensive urbanization has created substantial change to the region's landscape and ecosystems. This paper uses a dynamic urban-growth model, SLEUTH, which applies six geospatial data themes (slope, land use, exclusion, urban extent, transportation, hillside), to study the process of urbanization and associated land use and land cover change in the Tampa Bay area. To reduce processing time and complete the modeling process within an acceptable period, the model is recoded and ported to a Beowulf cluster. The parallel-processing computer system accomplishes the massive amount of computation the modeling simulation requires. SLEUTH calibration process for the Tampa Bay urban growth simulation spends only 10 h CPU time. The model predicts future land use/cover change trends for Tampa Bay from 1992 to 2025. Urban extent is predicted to double in the Tampa Bay watershed between 1992 and 2025. Results show an upward trend of urbanization at the expense of a decline of 58% and 80% in agriculture and forested lands, respectively.

Beyond urban penalty and urban sprawl: back to living conditions as the focus of urban health.

PubMed

Freudenberg, Nicholas; Galea, Sandro; Vlahov, David

2005-02-01

Researchers have long studied urban health, both to describe the consequences of urban living and to design interventions to promote the health of people living in cities. Two approaches to understanding the impact of cities on health have been dominant, namely, urban health penalty and urban sprawl. The urban penalty approach posits that cities concentrate poor people and expose them to unhealthy physical and social environments. Urban sprawl focuses on the adverse health and environmental effects of urban growth into outlying areas. We propose a model that integrates these approaches and emphasizes urban living conditions as the primary determinant of health. The aim of the model is to move beyond describing the health-related characteristics of various urban populations towards identifying opportunities for intervention. Such a shift in framework enables meaningful comparisons that can inform public health activities at the appropriate level and evaluate their effectiveness in improving the health of urban populations. The model is illustrated with two examples from current urban public health practice.

Nocturnal Propagating Thunderstorms May Favor Urban "Hot-Spots": A Model-Based Study over Minneapolis

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Ganeshan, Manisha; Murtugudde, Raghu

2015-01-01

High-resolution WRF model sensitivity experiments are carried out (with and without urban land cover) to study urban impacts on nocturnal propagating thunderstorms over the city of Minneapolis. It is found that the storm spatial characteristics, especially the position of the storm cell, are appreciably altered by the presence of urban land cover. The most robust urban instability during stormy conditions is the enhanced surface convergence due to increased frictional drag. No urban impact is visible on the rainfall intensity simulated by the model. The frictional convergence, aided by the nocturnal Urban Heat Island (UHI), appears to be responsible for attracting propagating storms towards the urban center. Advanced modeling experiments are needed to quantify the mechanical and thermal influence along with similar studies in other cities to further investigate the urban impact on the frequency and trajectory of nocturnal propagating storms.

Wind-Tunnel Modeling of Flow Diffusion over an Urban Complex.

DTIC Science & Technology

URBAN AREAS, *ATMOSPHERIC MOTION, *AIR POLLUTION, ATMOSPHERIC MOTION, WIND TUNNEL MODELS, HEAT, DIFFUSION , TURBULENT BOUNDARY LAYER, WIND, SKIN FRICTION, MATHEMATICAL MODELS, URBAN PLANNING, INDIANA.

INITIAL STUDY OF HPAC MODELED DISPERSION DRIVEN BY MM5 WITH AND WITHOUT URBAN CANOPY PARAMETERIZATIONS

EPA Science Inventory

Improving the accuracy and capability of transport and dispersion models in urban areas is essential for current and future urban applications. These models must reflect more realistically the presence and details of urban canopy features. Such features markedly influence the flo...

Spatio-Temporal Dynamics of Urbanization in China: Historical and Future

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhou, Y.; Smith, S.; Zhao, K.; Imhoff, M. L.; Thomson, A. M.; Eom, J.; Yu, S.; Bond-Lamberty, B. P.

2014-12-01

One way humans affect the Earth is by clearing lands and building cities, a process intricately coupled with population growth. The transformation of terrestrial environments by urbanization has been accelerating during the past 30 years. China, for instance, has experienced urbanization at an unprecedented rate, with the urban population increasing from ~20% to 50% between 1980 and 2010. This urban expansion has resulted in a range of environmental and socioeconomic consequences, such as released carbon, reduced habitats, and threatened biodiversity. Improved information on historical and future urbanization is essential to understand these environmental effects, and to promote a sustainable urbanization in China. Supported by urban maps derived from nightlights remote sensing data and socio-economic drivers, we developed an integrated modeling framework to project future urban expansion in China by integrating a top-down macro-scale statistical model with a bottom-up urban growth model (three examples in Figure 1). With the models calibrated and validated using historical data, we explored annual urban growth at the province level and urban sprawl at the grid level (1-km) over the next two decades under a number of socio-economic scenarios. The results of this study will be of great value with practical implications for a sustainable urbanization (e.g. mitigation of urban heat island).

Are winds in cities always slower than in the countryside? Modelling the Urban Wind Island Effect

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Droste, Arjan; Steeneveld, Gert-Jan

2017-04-01

Though the Urban Heat Island has been extensively studied, relatively little has been documented about differences in wind between the city as a whole and the countryside. Urban winds are difficult to capture in both observations and modelling, due to the complex urban canyon and neighbourhood geometry. This study uses a straightforward mixed-layer model (Tennekes & Driedonks, 1981) to investigate the contrast between the diurnal cycle of wind in the urban and the rural environment. The model contains one urban and one rural column, to identify differences in wind patterns between city and countryside under equal geostrophic forcing. The model has been evaluated against rural observations from the 213 m. Cabauw tower (the Netherlands), and the urban observations from the BUBBLE campaign (Basel, Rotach et al., 2005). The influence of the urban fabric on the wind is investigated by varying the surface underneath the column model using the 10 urban Local Climate Zones, thereby altering building height, fraction of impervious surface, and initial boundary-layer depth. First results show that for high initial urban boundary-layer depths compared to the rural boundary-layer depth, the urban column can be much windier than its rural counterpart: i.e. the urban Wind Island Effect. The effect appears to be most prominent in the morning and the late afternoon (up to 1 m/s), for Local Climate Zones with lower buildings (3 or 7). BUBBLE observations confirm the timing of the Wind Island Effect, though with weaker magnitude.

Fragmentation of urban forms and the environmental consequences: results from a high-spatial resolution model system

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tang, U. W.; Wang, Z. S.

2008-10-01

Each city has its unique urban form. The importance of urban form on sustainable development has been recognized in recent years. Traditionally, air quality modelling in a city is in a mesoscale with grid resolution of kilometers, regardless of its urban form. This paper introduces a GIS-based air quality and noise model system developed to study the built environment of highly compact urban forms. Compared with traditional mesoscale air quality model system, the present model system has a higher spatial resolution down to individual buildings along both sides of the street. Applying the developed model system in the Macao Peninsula with highly compact urban forms, the average spatial resolution of input and output data is as high as 174 receptor points per km2. Based on this input/output dataset with a high spatial resolution, this study shows that even the highly compact urban forms can be fragmented into a very small geographic scale of less than 3 km2. This is due to the significant temporal variation of urban development. The variation of urban form in each fragment in turn affects air dispersion, traffic condition, and thus air quality and noise in a measurable scale.

Assessing the effects of the Great Eastern China urbanization on the East Asian summer monsoon by coupling an urban canopy model with a Regional Climate Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liu, Z.; Xue, Y.; Liu, S.; Oleson, K. W.

2012-12-01

The urbanization causes one of the most significant land cover changes. Especially over the eastern China from Beijing to Shanghai, the great urbanization occurs during the past half century.It modifies the physical characteristics of land surface, including land surface albedo, surface roughness length and aerodynamicresistanceand thermodynamic conduction over land. All of these play very important role in regional climate change. Afteremploying several WRF/Urban models to tests land use and land cover change(LUCC) caused by urbanization in East Asia, we decided to introducea urban canopy submodule,the Community Land surface Model urban scheme(CLMU)to the WRF and coupled with the WRF-SSiB3 regional climate model. The CLMU and SSIB share the similar principal to treat the surface energy and water balances and aerodynamic resistance between land and atmosphere. In the urban module, the energy balances on the five surface conditions are considered separately: building roof, sun side building wall, shade side building wall, pervious land surface and impervious road. The surface turbulence calculation is based on Monin-Obukhov similarity theory. We have made further improvements for the urban module. Over each surface condition, a method to calculate sky view factor (SVF) is developed based on the physically process while most urban models simply provide an empirical value for SVF. Our approach along with other improvement in short and long wave radiation transfer improves the accuracy of long-wave and shortwave radiation processing over urban surface. The force-restore approximation is employed to calculate the temperature of each outer surfaces of building. The inner side temperature is used as the restore term and was assigned as a tuning constant. Based on the nature of the force-restore method and our tests, we decide to employ the air mean temperature of last 72 hours as a restore term, which substantially improve the surface energy balance. We evaluate the ability of the newly coupled model by two runs: one without and one with the urban canopy module. The coupled model is integrated from March through September, covering a summer monsoon season. The preliminary results show more significant urban heat island (UHI) effect over urban areas with the urban canopy model. The existence of the UHIs enhances the convection in lower atmosphere, affects the water vapor transportation and precipitation of the surrounding area, consistent with the phenomena that occur in urban areas. We further test the effect of urbanization on the monsoon by introducing two maps, one with and one without urbanization and the effect of the urbanization on the monsoon evolution and low level circulation will be discussed in the presentation.

The Impacts of Urbanization on Meteorology and Air Quality in the Los Angeles Basin

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, Y.; Zhang, J.; Sailor, D.; Ban-Weiss, G. A.

2017-12-01

Urbanization has a profound influence on regional meteorology in mega cities like Los Angeles. This influence is driven by changes in land surface physical properties and urban processes, and their corresponding influence on surface-atmosphere coupling. Changes in meteorology from urbanization in turn influences air quality through weather-dependent chemical reaction, pollutant dispersion, etc. Hence, a real-world representation of the urban land surface properties and urban processes should be accurately resolved in regional climate-chemistry models for better understanding the role of urbanization on changing urban meteorology and associated pollutant dynamics. By incorporating high-resolution land surface data, previous research has improved model-observation comparisons of meteorology in urban areas including the Los Angeles basin, and indicated that historical urbanization has increased urban temperatures and altered wind flows significantly. However, the impact of urban expansion on air quality has been less studied. Thus, in this study, we aim to evaluate the effectiveness of resolving high-resolution heterogeneity in urban land surface properties and processes for regional weather and pollutant concentration predictions. We coupled the Weather Research and Forecasting model with Chemistry to the single-layer Urban Canopy Model to simulate a typical summer period in year 2012 for Southern California. Land cover type and urban fraction were determined from National Land Cover Data. MODIS observations were used to determine satellite-derived albedo, green vegetation fraction, and leaf area index. Urban morphology was determined from GIS datasets of 3D building geometries. An urban irrigation scheme was also implemented in the model. Our results show that the improved model captures the diurnal cycle of 2m air temperature (T2) and Ozone (O3) concentrations. However, it tends to overestimate wind speed and underestimate T2, which leads to an underestimation of O3 and fine particulate matter concentrations. By comparing simulations assuming current land cover of the Los Angeles basin versus pre-urbanization land cover, we find that land cover change through urbanization has led to important shifts in regional air pollution via the aforementioned physical and chemical mechanisms.

Development of river flood model in lower reach of urbanized river basin

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yoshimura, Kouhei; Tajima, Yoshimitsu; Sanuki, Hiroshi; Shibuo, Yoshihiro; Sato, Shinji; Lee, SungAe; Furumai, Hiroaki; Koike, Toshio

2014-05-01

Japan, with its natural mountainous landscape, has demographic feature that population is concentrated in lower reach of elevation close to the coast, and therefore flood damage with large socio-economic value tends to occur in low-lying region. Modeling of river flood in such low-lying urbanized river basin is complex due to the following reasons. In upstream it has been experienced urbanization, which changed land covers from natural forest or agricultural fields to residential or industrial area. Hence rate of infiltration and runoff are quite different from natural hydrological settings. In downstream, paved covers and construct of sewerage system in urbanized areas affect direct discharges and it enhances higher and faster flood peak arrival. Also tidal effect from river mouth strongly affects water levels in rivers, which must be taken into account. We develop an integrated river flood model in lower reach of urbanized areas to be able to address above described complex feature, by integrating model components: LSM coupled distributed hydrological model that models anthropogenic influence on river discharges to downstream; urban hydrological model that simulates run off response in urbanized areas; Saint Venant's equation approximated river model that integrates upstream and urban hydrological models with considering tidal effect from downstream. These features are integrated in a common modeling framework so that model interaction can be directly performed. The model is applied to the Tsurumi river basin, urbanized low-lying river basin in Yokohama and model results show that it can simulate water levels in rivers with acceptable model errors. Furthermore the model is able to install miscellaneous water planning constructs, such as runoff reduction pond in urbanized area, flood control field along the river channel, levee, etc. This can be a useful tool to investigate cost performance of hypothetical water management plan against impact of climate change in the region.

Influence of urban pattern on inundation flow in floodplains of lowland rivers.

PubMed

Bruwier, M; Mustafa, A; Aliaga, D G; Archambeau, P; Erpicum, S; Nishida, G; Zhang, X; Pirotton, M; Teller, J; Dewals, B

2018-05-01

The objective of this paper is to investigate the respective influence of various urban pattern characteristics on inundation flow. A set of 2000 synthetic urban patterns were generated using an urban procedural model providing locations and shapes of streets and buildings over a square domain of 1×1km 2 . Steady two-dimensional hydraulic computations were performed over the 2000 urban patterns with identical hydraulic boundary conditions. To run such a large amount of simulations, the computational efficiency of the hydraulic model was improved by using an anisotropic porosity model. This model computes on relatively coarse computational cells, but preserves information from the detailed topographic data through porosity parameters. Relationships between urban characteristics and the computed inundation water depths have been based on multiple linear regressions. Finally, a simple mechanistic model based on two district-scale porosity parameters, combining several urban characteristics, is shown to capture satisfactorily the influence of urban characteristics on inundation water depths. The findings of this study give guidelines for more flood-resilient urban planning. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Simulating the Response of Urban Water Quality to Climate and Land Use Change in Partially Urbanized Basins

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sun, N.; Yearsley, J. R.; Nijssen, B.; Lettenmaier, D. P.

2014-12-01

Urban stream quality is particularly susceptible to extreme precipitation events and land use change. Although the projected effects of extreme events and land use change on hydrology have been resonably well studied, the impacts on urban water quality have not been widely examined due in part to the scale mismatch between global climate models and the spatial scales required to represent urban hydrology and water quality signals. Here we describe a grid-based modeling system that integrates the Distributed Hydrology Soil Vegetation Model (DHSVM) and urban water quality module adpated from EPA's Storm Water Management Model (SWMM) and Soil and water assessment tool (SWAT). Using the model system, we evaluate, for four partially urbanized catchments within the Puget Sound basin, urban water quality under current climate conditions, and projected potential changes in urban water quality associated with future changes in climate and land use. We examine in particular total suspended solids, toal nitrogen, total phosphorous, and coliform bacteria, with catchment representations at the 150-meter spatial resolution and the sub-daily timestep. We report long-term streamflow and water quality predictions in response to extreme precipitation events of varying magnitudes in the four partially urbanized catchments. Our simulations show that urban water quality is highly sensitive to both climatic and land use change.

The Urban Forest Effects (UFORE) model: quantifying urban forest structure and functions

Treesearch

David J. Nowak; Daniel E. Crane

2000-01-01

The Urban Forest Effects (UFORE) computer model was developed to help managers and researchers quantify urban forest structure and functions. The model quantifies species composition and diversity, diameter distribution, tree density and health, leaf area, leaf biomass, and other structural characteristics; hourly volatile organic compound emissions (emissions that...

Coupling impervious surface rate derived from satellite remote sensing with distributed hydrological model for highly urbanized watershed flood forecasting

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dong, L.

2017-12-01

Abstract: The original urban surface structure changed a lot because of the rapid development of urbanization. Impermeable area has increased a lot. It causes great pressure for city flood control and drainage. Songmushan reservoir basin with high degree of urbanization is taken for an example. Pixel from Landsat is decomposed by Linear spectral mixture model and the proportion of urban area in it is considered as impervious rate. Based on impervious rate data before and after urbanization, an physically based distributed hydrological model, Liuxihe Model, is used to simulate the process of hydrology. The research shows that the performance of the flood forecasting of high urbanization area carried out with Liuxihe Model is perfect and can meet the requirement of the accuracy of city flood control and drainage. The increase of impervious area causes conflux speed more quickly and peak flow to be increased. It also makes the time of peak flow advance and the runoff coefficient increase. Key words: Liuxihe Model; Impervious rate; City flood control and drainage; Urbanization; Songmushan reservoir basin

Modeling Global Urbanization Supported by Nighttime Light Remote Sensing

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhou, Y.

2015-12-01

Urbanization, a major driver of global change, profoundly impacts our physical and social world, for example, altering carbon cycling and climate. Understanding these consequences for better scientific insights and effective decision-making unarguably requires accurate information on urban extent and its spatial distributions. In this study, we developed a cluster-based method to estimate the optimal thresholds and map urban extents from the nighttime light remote sensing data, extended this method to the global domain by developing a computational method (parameterization) to estimate the key parameters in the cluster-based method, and built a consistent 20-year global urban map series to evaluate the time-reactive nature of global urbanization (e.g. 2000 in Fig. 1). Supported by urban maps derived from nightlights remote sensing data and socio-economic drivers, we developed an integrated modeling framework to project future urban expansion by integrating a top-down macro-scale statistical model with a bottom-up urban growth model. With the models calibrated and validated using historical data, we explored urban growth at the grid level (1-km) over the next two decades under a number of socio-economic scenarios. The derived spatiotemporal information of historical and potential future urbanization will be of great value with practical implications for developing adaptation and risk management measures for urban infrastructure, transportation, energy, and water systems when considered together with other factors such as climate variability and change, and high impact weather events.

The Impact of TexAQS 2000 on Air Quality Planning in Houston

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Thomas, J. W.; Price, J. H.

2002-12-01

Before the Texas 2000 Air Quality Study (TexAQS 2000) the State used the Urban Airshed Model to model nine different episodes in Houston with very poor results: only one episode met EPA model performance criteria. Questions existed regarding emissions uncertainties, meteorological modeling, and model chemistry. NOAA, DOE, and SOS led more than 35 organizations and 250 investigators who participated in TexAQS 2000. Major findings from TexAQS 2000 are: 1. There are two types of meteorological patterns that lead to ozone episodes in the Houston area: (i) stagnation associated with the sea breeze flow reversal causes a pool of industrial emissions and ozone to accumulate, then to move across the city as the wind flow picks up and (ii) plumes of ozone form when relatively persistent winds carry the emissions away from the city and industrial areas. 2. The chemistry that produces high ozone concentrations and rapid rises in ozone in the Houston area has been explained: multiple investigators in TexAQS 2000 have documented more rapid and more efficient formation of ozone in the plume from the Houston industrial area than any of them has observed in any previous field study. Houston's exceptionally rapid ozone formation arises from large amounts of anthropogenic VOCs in the atmosphere, often from the same plants that provide sufficient NOx. 3. This rapid and efficient ozone formation results most often from the presence of a specific subclass of hydrocarbons called light olefins, primarily ethylene and propylene. 4. Sometimes it is other specific hydrocarbons that cause the rapid formation of high concentrations of ozone, and sometimes it is just the total mass of a lot of relatively unreactive hydrocarbons. 5. The current emissions inventory for ethylene and propylene, as well as other VOCs, underestimates their routine emissions by a factor of roughly five to ten or perhaps even more. 6. It is not clear whether the emissions causing Houston's rapid ozone formation are the results of upsets or of routine operations or both. Each of the research groups in TexAQS 2000 has found that the data are consistent with routine emissions; however, their analyses do not exclude the possibility of multiple releases per day that would not be readily distinguishable from continuous emissions. 7. Further analysis of the data collected in 2000 and 2001 will be necessary to refine the estimates of the discrepancy between reported and actual VOC emissions and assign top-down VOC emissions inventory corrections for the current round of regulatory modeling. 8. Additional work will need to continue for the next few years with the cooperation of industry to develop an adequate bottom-up emissions inventory for VOCs. 9. The opportunity to compare regulatory modeling results to state-of-the-science aircraft measurements is a major advance in determining whether photochemical models are getting the right answers for the right reasons. Doing so is critical to development of effective and cost-effective control strategies. Without TexAQS 2000 and subsequent findings, the one-hour ozone control strategies for Houston would not address the problem correctly. What's next? The challenges of the impending 8-hour ozone standard will demand even more precision in our technical work to develop efficient and cost-effective strategies to demonstrate attainment. There is a proposal to conduct another major field study in 2005 to build on our current understanding of the science for ozone, fine particulate matter, and regional haze in Texas.

Urban stormwater - greywater management system for sustainable urban water management at sub-watershed level

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Singh Arora, Amarpreet

2017-11-01

Urban water management involves urban water supply (import, treatment and distribution of water), urban wastewater management (collection, treatment and disposal of urban sewage) and urban storm water management. Declining groundwater tables, polluted and declining sources of water, water scarcity in urban areas, unsatisfactory urban water supply and sanitation situation, pollution of receiving water bodies (including the ground water), and urban floods have become the concerns and issues of sustainable urban water management. This paper proposes a model for urban stormwater and sewage management which addresses these concerns and issues of sustainable urban water management. This model proposes segregation of the sewage into black water and greywater, and urban sub-watershed level stormwater-greywater management systems. During dry weather this system will be handling only the greywater and making the latter available as reclaimed water for reuse in place of the fresh water supply. During wet weather, the system will be taking care of (collection and treatment) both the storm water and the greywater, and the excess of the treated water will be disposed off through groundwater recharging. Application of this model in the Patiala city, Punjab, INDIA for selected urban sub-watersheds has been tried. Information and background data required for the conceptualization and design of the sub-watershed level urban stormwater-greywater management system was collected and the system has been designed for one of the sub-watersheds in the Patiala city. In this paper, the model for sustainable urban water management and the design of the Sub-watershed level Urban Stormwater-Greywater Management System are described.

Spatiotemporal variability of urban growth factors: A global and local perspective on the megacity of Mumbai

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shafizadeh-Moghadam, Hossein; Helbich, Marco

2015-03-01

The rapid growth of megacities requires special attention among urban planners worldwide, and particularly in Mumbai, India, where growth is very pronounced. To cope with the planning challenges this will bring, developing a retrospective understanding of urban land-use dynamics and the underlying driving-forces behind urban growth is a key prerequisite. This research uses regression-based land-use change models - and in particular non-spatial logistic regression models (LR) and auto-logistic regression models (ALR) - for the Mumbai region over the period 1973-2010, in order to determine the drivers behind spatiotemporal urban expansion. Both global models are complemented by a local, spatial model, the so-called geographically weighted logistic regression (GWLR) model, one that explicitly permits variations in driving-forces across space. The study comes to two main conclusions. First, both global models suggest similar driving-forces behind urban growth over time, revealing that LRs and ALRs result in estimated coefficients with comparable magnitudes. Second, all the local coefficients show distinctive temporal and spatial variations. It is therefore concluded that GWLR aids our understanding of urban growth processes, and so can assist context-related planning and policymaking activities when seeking to secure a sustainable urban future.

Validation of the Martilli's Urban Boundary Layer Scheme with measurements from two mid-latitude European cities

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hamdi, R.; Schayes, G.

2005-07-01

The Martilli's urban parameterization scheme is improved and implemented in a mesoscale model in order to take into account the typical effects of a real city on the air temperature near the ground and on the surface exchange fluxes. The mesoscale model is run on a single column using atmospheric data and radiation recorded above roof level as forcing. Here, the authors validate the Martilli's urban boundary layer scheme using measurements from two mid-latitude European cities: Basel, Switzerland and Marseilles, France. For Basel, the model performance is evaluated with observations of canyon temperature, surface radiation, and energy balance fluxes obtained during the Basel urban boundary layer experiment (BUBBLE). The results show that the urban parameterization scheme is able to reproduce the generation of the Urban Heat Island (UHI) effect over urban area and represents correctly most of the behavior of the fluxes typical of the city center of Basel, including the large heat uptake by the urban fabric and the positive sensible heat flux at night. For Marseilles, the model performance is evaluated with observations of surface temperature, canyon temperature, surface radiation, and energy balance fluxes collected during the field experiments to constrain models of atmospheric pollution and transport of emissions (ESCOMPTE) and its urban boundary layer (UBL) campaign. At both urban sites, vegetation cover is less than 20%, therefore, particular attention was directed to the ability of the Martilli's urban boundary layer scheme to reproduce the observations for the Marseilles city center, where the urban parameters and the synoptic forcing are totally different from Basel. Evaluation of the model with wall, road, and roof surface temperatures gave good results. The model correctly simulates the net radiation, canyon temperature, and the partitioning between the turbulent and storage heat fluxes.

a Quadtree Organization Construction and Scheduling Method for Urban 3d Model Based on Weight

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yao, C.; Peng, G.; Song, Y.; Duan, M.

2017-09-01

The increasement of Urban 3D model precision and data quantity puts forward higher requirements for real-time rendering of digital city model. Improving the organization, management and scheduling of 3D model data in 3D digital city can improve the rendering effect and efficiency. This paper takes the complexity of urban models into account, proposes a Quadtree construction and scheduling rendering method for Urban 3D model based on weight. Divide Urban 3D model into different rendering weights according to certain rules, perform Quadtree construction and schedule rendering according to different rendering weights. Also proposed an algorithm for extracting bounding box extraction based on model drawing primitives to generate LOD model automatically. Using the algorithm proposed in this paper, developed a 3D urban planning&management software, the practice has showed the algorithm is efficient and feasible, the render frame rate of big scene and small scene are both stable at around 25 frames.

Modeling Urban Energy Savings Scenarios Using Earth System Microclimate and Urban Morphology

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Allen, M. R.; Rose, A.; New, J. R.; Yuan, J.; Omitaomu, O.; Sylvester, L.; Branstetter, M. L.; Carvalhaes, T. M.; Seals, M.; Berres, A.

2017-12-01

We analyze and quantify the relationships among climatic conditions, urban morphology, population, land cover, and energy use so that these relationships can be used to inform energy-efficient urban development and planning. We integrate different approaches across three research areas: earth system modeling; impacts, adaptation and vulnerability; and urban planning in order to address three major gaps in the existing capability in these areas: i) neighborhood resolution modeling and simulation of urban micrometeorological processes and their effect on and from regional climate; ii) projections for future energy use under urbanization and climate change scenarios identifying best strategies for urban morphological development and energy savings; iii) analysis and visualization tools to help planners optimally use these projections.

Urbanization and watershed sustainability: Collaborative simulation modeling of future development states

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Randhir, Timothy O.; Raposa, Sarah

2014-11-01

Urbanization has a significant impact on water resources and requires a watershed-based approach to evaluate impacts of land use and urban development on watershed processes. This study uses a simulation with urban policy scenarios to model and strategize transferable recommendations for municipalities and cities to guide urban decisions using watershed ecohydrologic principles. The watershed simulation model is used to evaluation intensive (policy in existing built regions) and extensive (policy outside existing build regions) urban development scenarios with and without implementation of Best Management practices (BMPs). Water quantity and quality changes are simulated to assess effectiveness of five urban development scenarios. It is observed that optimal combination of intensive and extensive strategies can be used to sustain urban ecosystems. BMPs are found critical to reduce storm water and water quality impacts on urban development. Conservation zoning and incentives for voluntary adoption of BMPs can be used in sustaining urbanizing watersheds.

Urban nonpoint source pollution buildup and washoff models for simulating storm runoff quality in the Los Angeles County.

PubMed

Wang, Long; Wei, Jiahua; Huang, Yuefei; Wang, Guangqian; Maqsood, Imran

2011-07-01

Many urban nonpoint source pollution models utilize pollutant buildup and washoff functions to simulate storm runoff quality of urban catchments. In this paper, two urban pollutant washoff load models are derived using pollutant buildup and washoff functions. The first model assumes that there is no residual pollutant after a storm event while the second one assumes that there is always residual pollutant after each storm event. The developed models are calibrated and verified with observed data from an urban catchment in the Los Angeles County. The application results show that the developed model with consideration of residual pollutant is more capable of simulating nonpoint source pollution from urban storm runoff than that without consideration of residual pollutant. For the study area, residual pollutant should be considered in pollutant buildup and washoff functions for simulating urban nonpoint source pollution when the total runoff volume is less than 30 mm. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Integrated urban water cycle management: the UrbanCycle model.

PubMed

Hardy, M J; Kuczera, G; Coombes, P J

2005-01-01

Integrated urban water cycle management presents a new framework in which solutions to the provision of urban water services can be sought. It enables new and innovative solutions currently constrained by the existing urban water paradigm to be implemented. This paper introduces the UrbanCycle model. The model is being developed in response to the growing and changing needs of the water management sector and in light of the need for tools to evaluate integrated watercycle management approaches. The key concepts underpinning the UrbanCycle model are the adoption of continuous simulation, hierarchical network modelling, and the careful management of computational complexity. The paper reports on the integration of modelling capabilities across the allotment, and subdivision scales, enabling the interactions between these scales to be explored. A case study illustrates the impacts of various mitigation measures possible under an integrated water management framework. The temporal distribution of runoff into ephemeral streams from a residential allotment in Western Sydney is evaluated and linked to the geomorphic and ecological regimes in receiving waters.

FACILITATING ADVANCED URBAN METEOROLOGY AND AIR QUALITY MODELING CAPABILITIES WITH HIGH RESOLUTION URBAN DATABASE AND ACCESS PORTAL TOOLS

EPA Science Inventory

Information of urban morphological features at high resolution is needed to properly model and characterize the meteorological and air quality fields in urban areas. We describe a new project called National Urban Database with Access Portal Tool, (NUDAPT) that addresses this nee...

Urban change analysis and future growth of Istanbul.

PubMed

Akın, Anıl; Sunar, Filiz; Berberoğlu, Süha

2015-08-01

This study is aimed at analyzing urban change within Istanbul and assessing the city's future growth potential using appropriate approach modeling for the year 2040. Urban growth is a major driving force of land-use change, and spatial and temporal components of urbanization can be identified through accurate spatial modeling. In this context, widely used urban modeling approaches, such as the Markov chain and logistic regression based on cellular automata (CA), were used to simulate urban growth within Istanbul. The distance from each pixel to the urban and road classes, elevation, and slope, together with municipality and land use maps (as an excluded layer), were identified as factors. Calibration data were obtained from remotely sensed data recorded in 1972, 1986, and 2013. Validation was performed by overlaying the simulated and actual 2013 urban maps, and a kappa index of agreement was derived. The results indicate that urban expansion will influence mainly forest areas during the time period of 2013-2040. The urban expansion was predicted as 429 and 327 km(2) with the Markov chain and logistic regression models, respectively.

Overcoming the Subject-Object Dichotomy in Urban Modeling: Axial Maps as Geometric Representations of Affordances in the Built Environment.

PubMed

Marcus, Lars

2018-01-01

The world is witnessing unprecedented urbanization, bringing extreme challenges to contemporary practices in urban planning and design. This calls for improved urban models that can generate new knowledge and enhance practical skill. Importantly, any urban model embodies a conception of the relation between humans and the physical environment. In urban modeling this is typically conceived of as a relation between human subjects and an environmental object, thereby reproducing a humans-environment dichotomy. Alternative modeling traditions, such as space syntax that originates in architecture rather than geography, have tried to overcome this dichotomy. Central in this effort is the development of new representations of urban space, such as in the case of space syntax, the axial map. This form of representation aims to integrate both human behavior and the physical environment into one and the same description. Interestingly, models based on these representations have proved to better capture pedestrian movement than regular models. Pedestrian movement, as well as other kinds of human flows in urban space, is essential for urban modeling, since increasingly flows of this kind are understood as the driver in urban processes. Critical for a full understanding of space syntax modeling is the ontology of its' representations, such as the axial map. Space syntax theory here often refers to James Gibson's "Theory of affordances," where the concept of affordances, in a manner similar to axial maps, aims to bridge the subject-object dichotomy by neither constituting physical properties of the environment or human behavior, but rather what emerges in the meeting between the two. In extension of this, the axial map can be interpreted as a representation of how the physical form of the environment affords human accessibility and visibility in urban space. This paper presents a close examination of the form of representations developed in space syntax methodology, in particular in the light of Gibson's "theory of affordances." The overarching aim is to contribute to a theoretical framework for urban models based on affordances, which may support the overcoming of the subject-object dichotomy in such models, here deemed essential for a greater social-ecological sustainability of cities.

The implementation of biofiltration systems, rainwater tanks and urban irrigation in a single-layer urban canopy model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Demuzere, Matthias; Coutts, Andrew; Goehler, Maren; Broadbent, Ashley; Wouters, Hendrik; van Lipzig, Nicole; Gebert, Luke

2015-04-01

Urban vegetation is generally considered as a key tool to modify the urban energy balance through enhanced evapotranspiration (ET). Given that vegetation is most effective when it is healthy, stormwater harvesting and retention strategies (such as water sensitive urban design) could be used to support vegetation and promote ET. This study presents the implementation of a vegetated lined bio-filtration system (BFS) combined with a rainwater tank (RWT) and urban irrigation system in the single-layer urban canopy model Community Land Model-Urban. Runoff from roof and impervious road surface fractions is harvested and used to support an adequate soil moisture level for vegetation in the BFS. In a first stage, modelled soil moisture dynamics are evaluated and found reliable compared to observed soil moisture levels from biofiltration pits in Smith Street, Melbourne (Australia). Secondly, the impact of BFS, RWT and urban irrigation on ET is illustrated for a two-month period in 2012 using varying characteristics for all components. Results indicate that (i) a large amount of stormwater is potentially available for indoor and outdoor water demands, including irrigation of urban vegetation, (ii) ET from the BFS is an order of magnitude larger compared to the contributions from the impervious surfaces, even though the former only covers 10% of the surface fraction and (iii) attention should be paid to the cover fraction and soil texture of the BFS, size of the RWT and the surface fractions contributing to the collection of water in the RWT. Overall, this study reveals that this model development can effectuate future research with state-of-the-art urban climate models to further explore the benefits of vegetated biofiltration systems as a water sensitive urban design tool optimised with an urban irrigation system to maintain healthy vegetation.

Hybrid Modeling Based on Scsg-Br and Orthophoto

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhou, G.; Huang, Y.; Yue, T.; Li, X.; Huang, W.; He, C.; Wu, Z.

2018-05-01

With the development of digital city, digital applications are more and more widespread, while the urban buildings are more complex. Therefore, establishing an effective data model is the key to express urban building models accurately. In addition, the combination of 3D building model and remote sensing data become a trend to build digital city there are a large amount of data resulting in data redundancy. In order to solve the limitation of single modelling of constructive solid geometry (CSG), this paper presents a mixed modelling method based on SCSG-BR for urban buildings representation. On one hand, the improved CSG method, which is called as "Spatial CSG (SCSG)" representation method, is used to represent the exterior shape of urban buildings. On the other hand, the boundary representation (BR) method represents the topological relationship between geometric elements of urban building, in which the textures is considered as the attribute data of the wall and the roof of urban building. What's more, the method combined file database and relational database is used to manage the data of three-dimensional building model, which can decrease the complex processes in texture mapping. During the data processing, the least-squares algorithm with constraints is used to orthogonalize the building polygons and adjust the polygons topology to ensure the accuracy of the modelling data. Finally, this paper matches the urban building model with the corresponding orthophoto. This paper selects data of Denver, Colorado, USA to establish urban building realistic model. The results show that the SCSG-BR method can represent the topological relations of building more precisely. The organization and management of urban building model data reduce the redundancy of data and improve modelling speed. The combination of orthophoto and urban building model further strengthens the application in view analysis and spatial query, which enhance the scope of digital city applications.

Racial Prejudice and Locational Equilibrium in an Urban Area.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Yinger, John

Racial prejudice is said to influence strongly the locational decisions of households in urban areas. This paper introduces racial prejudice into a model of an urban area and derives several results about residential location. A previously developed long-run model of an urban area adds a locational dimension to a model of the housing market under…

A modeling study of the impact of urban trees on ozone

Treesearch

David J. Nowak; Kevin L. Civerolo; S. Trivikrama Rao; Gopal Sistla; Christopher J. Luley; Daniel E. Crane

2000-01-01

Modeling the effects of increased urban tree cover on ozone concentrations (July 13-15, 1995) from Washington, DC, to central Massachusetts reveals that urban trees generally reduce ozone concentrations in cities, but tend to increase average ozone concentrations in the overall modeling domain. During the daytime, average ozone reductions in urban areas (1 ppb) were...

Smart Mobility Stakeholders - Curating Urban Data & Models

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Sperling, Joshua

This presentation provides an overview of the curation of urban data and models through engaging SMART mobility stakeholders. SMART Mobility Urban Science Efforts are helping to expose key data sets, models, and roles for the U.S. Department of Energy in engaging across stakeholders to ensure useful insights. This will help to support other Urban Science and broader SMART initiatives.

Airsheds, Isotopes and Ecosystem Metabolism in Mountainous Terrain

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sulzman, E.; Barnard, H.; Bond, B. J.; Czarnomski, N. M.; Hauck, M.; Kayler, Z.; Mix, A. C.; Pypker, T.; Rugh, W.; Unsworth, M.

2005-12-01

At least 20% of the terrestrial surface of the earth is covered by mountains, which contain many of the world's most productive ecosystems. Interactions between vegetation and the physical environment are often very different in mountains than on flat land. However, few studies have addressed these unique interactions, and many of the tools used to measure and monitor ecosystem metabolism are difficult or impossible to use in complex, mountainous terrain. In a project we call the "Andrews Airshed study" located in western Oregon Cascades, we aim to identify and explore sources of variation in the isotopic composition of ecosystem respiration (δ13CR-eco) and airflow patterns in cold-air drainage, with the eventual aim of "inverting" this understanding so that we can use δ13CR-eco to monitor intra- and inter-annual variations in ecosystem metabolism on a basin scale. We are measuring patterns of airflow, quantifying the CO2 concentration in the flow, and measuring the carbon isotope composition of ecosystem-respired CO2 as well as soil-respired CO2 (δ13CR-soil), which accounts for more than half of δ13CR-eco. We have designed an automated air sampling device that we programmed to sample air at 10 ppm intervals from 30 m above the stream in our 100 ha, deeply-incised watershed. Samples are collected via Valco valves into stainless steel tubing that can be connected directly to an isotope ratio mass spectrometer. We also designed and installed soil gas sampling probes, which are located in five 10 m2 sampling plots from ridge top to valley floor to the opposite ridge top. Weekly samples (May-Sept, 2005) of air from soil and the nocturnal air flow show seasonal variation in δ13CR-eco over a 2 per mil range, with more enriched values corresponding to lower soil moisture. Soil-respired CO2 also reveal seasonality and are isotopically enriched compared with above-ground air. δ13CR-soil values from north- and south-facing slopes of the watershed differ by 1 per mil, with south-facing values consistently enriched relative to those of the north-facing slope. We are concurrently conducting studies to determine the appropriate footprint of respired CO2 in the nocturnal airstream, which will allow us to overlay the data properly.

Urban-Water Harmony model to evaluate the urban water management.

PubMed

Ding, Yifan; Tang, Deshan; Wei, Yuhang; Yin, Sun

2014-01-01

Water resources in many urban areas are under enormous stress due to large-scale urban expansion and population explosion. The decision-makers are often faced with the dilemma of either maintaining high economic growth or protecting water resources and the environment. Simple criteria of water supply and drainage do not reflect the requirement of integrated urban water management. The Urban-Water Harmony (UWH) model is based on the concept of harmony and offers a more integrated approach to urban water management. This model calculates four dimensions, namely urban development, urban water services, water-society coordination, and water environment coordination. And the Analytic Hierarchy Process has been used to determine the indices weights. We applied the UWH model to Beijing, China for an 11-year assessment. Our findings show that, despite the severe stress inherent in rapid development and water shortage, the urban water relationship of Beijing is generally evolving in a positive way. The social-economic factors such as the water recycling technologies contribute a lot to this change. The UWH evaluation can provide a reasonable analysis approach to combine various urban and water indices to produce an integrated and comparable evaluation index. This, in turn, enables more effective water management in decision-making processes.

Advance strategy for climate change adaptation and mitigation in cities

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Varquez, A. C. G.; Kanda, M.; Darmanto, N. S.; Sueishi, T.; Kawano, N.

2017-12-01

An on-going 5-yr project financially supported by the Ministry of Environment, Japan, has been carried out to specifically address the issue of prescribing appropriate adaptation and mitigation measures to climate change in cities. Entitled "Case Study on Mitigation and Local Adaptation to Climate Change in an Asian Megacity, Jakarta", the project's relevant objectives is to develop a research framework that can consider both urbanization and climate change with the main advantage of being readily implementable for all cities around the world. The test location is the benchmark city, Jakarta, Indonesia, with the end focus of evaluating the benefits of various mitigation and adaptation strategies in Jakarta and other megacities. The framework was designed to improve representation of urban areas when conducting climate change investigations in cities; and to be able to quantify separately the impacts of urbanization and climate change to all cities globally. It is comprised of a sophisticated, top-down, multi-downscaling approach utilizing a regional model (numerical weather model) and a microscale model (energy balance model and CFD model), with global circulation models (GCM) as input. The models, except the GCM, were configured to reasonably consider land cover, urban morphology, and anthropogenic heating (AH). Equally as important, methodologies that can collect and estimate global distribution of urban parametric and AH datasets are continually being developed. Urban growth models, climate scenario matrices that match representative concentration pathways with shared socio-economic pathways, present distribution of socio-demographic indicators such as population and GDP, existing GIS datasets of urban parameters, are utilized. From these tools, future urbanization (urban morphological parameters and AH) can be introduced into the models. Sensitivity using various combinations of GCM and urbanization can be conducted. Furthermore, since the models utilize parameters that can be readily modified to suit certain countermeasures, adaptation and mitigation strategies can be evaluated using thermal comfort and other social indicators. With the approaches introduced through this project, a deeper understanding of urban-climate interactions in the changing global climate can be achieved.

Studying urban land-atmospheric interactions by coupling an urban canopy model with a single column atmospheric models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Song, J.; Wang, Z.

2013-12-01

Studying urban land-atmospheric interactions by coupling an urban canopy model with a single column atmospheric models Jiyun Song and Zhi-Hua Wang School of Sustainable Engineering and the Built Environment, Arizona State University, PO Box 875306, Tempe, AZ 85287-5306 Landuse landcover changes in urban area will modify surface energy budgets, turbulent fluxes as well as dynamic and thermodynamic structures of the overlying atmospheric boundary layer (ABL). In order to study urban land-atmospheric interactions, we coupled a single column atmospheric model (SCM) to a cutting-edge single layer urban canopy model (SLUCM). Modification of surface parameters such as the fraction of vegetation and engineered pavements, thermal properties of building and pavement materials, and geometrical features of street canyon, etc. in SLUCM dictates the evolution of surface balance of energy, water and momentum. The land surface states then provide lower boundary conditions to the overlying atmosphere, which in turn modulates the modification of ABL structure as well as vertical profiles of temperature, humidity, wind speed and tracer gases. The coupled SLUCM-SCM model is tested against field measurements of surface layer fluxes as well as profiles of temperature and humidity in the mixed layer under convective conditions. After model test, SLUCM-SCM is used to simulate the effect of changing urban land surface conditions on the evolution of ABL structure and dynamics. Simulation results show that despite the prescribed atmospheric forcing, land surface states impose significant impact on the physics of the overlying vertical atmospheric layer. Overall, this numerical framework provides a useful standalone modeling tool to assess the impacts of urban land surface conditions on the local hydrometeorology through land-atmospheric interactions. It also has potentially far-reaching implications to urban ecohydrological services for cities under future expansion and climate challenges.

The Integrated WRF/Urban Modeling System: Development, Evaluation, and Applications to Urban Environmental Problems

EPA Science Inventory

To bridge the gaps between traditional mesoscale modelling and microscale modelling, the National Center for Atmospheric Research, in collaboration with other agencies and research groups, has developed an integrated urban modelling system coupled to the weather research and fore...

a Probabilistic Embedding Clustering Method for Urban Structure Detection

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lin, X.; Li, H.; Zhang, Y.; Gao, L.; Zhao, L.; Deng, M.

2017-09-01

Urban structure detection is a basic task in urban geography. Clustering is a core technology to detect the patterns of urban spatial structure, urban functional region, and so on. In big data era, diverse urban sensing datasets recording information like human behaviour and human social activity, suffer from complexity in high dimension and high noise. And unfortunately, the state-of-the-art clustering methods does not handle the problem with high dimension and high noise issues concurrently. In this paper, a probabilistic embedding clustering method is proposed. Firstly, we come up with a Probabilistic Embedding Model (PEM) to find latent features from high dimensional urban sensing data by "learning" via probabilistic model. By latent features, we could catch essential features hidden in high dimensional data known as patterns; with the probabilistic model, we can also reduce uncertainty caused by high noise. Secondly, through tuning the parameters, our model could discover two kinds of urban structure, the homophily and structural equivalence, which means communities with intensive interaction or in the same roles in urban structure. We evaluated the performance of our model by conducting experiments on real-world data and experiments with real data in Shanghai (China) proved that our method could discover two kinds of urban structure, the homophily and structural equivalence, which means clustering community with intensive interaction or under the same roles in urban space.

Modeling of facade leaching in urban catchments

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Coutu, S.; Del Giudice, D.; Rossi, L.; Barry, D. A.

2012-12-01

Building facades are protected from microbial attack by incorporation of biocides within them. Flow over facades leaches these biocides and transports them to the urban environment. A parsimonious water quantity/quality model applicable for engineered urban watersheds was developed to compute biocide release from facades and their transport at the urban basin scale. The model couples two lumped submodels applicable at the basin scale, and a local model of biocide leaching at the facade scale. For the facade leaching, an existing model applicable at the individual wall scale was utilized. The two lumped models describe urban hydrodynamics and leachate transport. The integrated model allows prediction of biocide concentrations in urban rivers. It was applied to a 15 km2urban hydrosystem in western Switzerland, the Vuachère river basin, to study three facade biocides (terbutryn, carbendazim, diuron). The water quality simulated by the model matched well most of the pollutographs at the outlet of the Vuachère watershed. The model was then used to estimate possible ecotoxicological impacts of facade leachates. To this end, exceedance probabilities and cumulative pollutant loads from the catchment were estimated. Results showed that the considered biocides rarely exceeded the relevant predicted no-effect concentrations for the riverine system. Despite the heterogeneities and complexity of (engineered) urban catchments, the model application demonstrated that a computationally "light" model can be employed to simulate the hydrograph and pollutograph response within them. It thus allows catchment-scale assessment of the potential ecotoxicological impact of biocides on receiving waters.

Effects of urban form on the urban heat island effect based on spatial regression model.

PubMed

Yin, Chaohui; Yuan, Man; Lu, Youpeng; Huang, Yaping; Liu, Yanfang

2018-09-01

The urban heat island (UHI) effect is becoming more of a concern with the accelerated process of urbanization. However, few studies have examined the effect of urban form on land surface temperature (LST) especially from an urban planning perspective. This paper used spatial regression model to investigate the effects of both land use composition and urban form on LST in Wuhan City, China, based on the regulatory planning management unit. Landsat ETM+ image data was used to estimate LST. Land use composition was calculated by impervious surface area proportion, vegetated area proportion, and water proportion, while urban form indicators included sky view factor (SVF), building density, and floor area ratio (FAR). We first tested for spatial autocorrelation of urban LST, which confirmed that a traditional regression method would be invalid. A spatial error model (SEM) was chosen because its parameters were better than a spatial lag model (SLM). The results showed that urban form metrics should be the focus for mitigation efforts of UHI effects. In addition, analysis of the relationship between urban form and UHI effect based on the regulatory planning management unit was helpful for promoting corresponding UHI effect mitigation rules in practice. Finally, the spatial regression model was recommended to be an appropriate method for dealing with problems related to the urban thermal environment. Results suggested that the impact of urbanization on the UHI effect can be mitigated not only by balancing various land use types, but also by optimizing urban form, which is even more effective. This research expands the scientific understanding of effects of urban form on UHI by explicitly analyzing indicators closely related to urban detailed planning at the level of regulatory planning management unit. In addition, it may provide important insights and effective regulation measures for urban planners to mitigate future UHI effects. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Reserch on Urban Spatial Expansion Model Based on Multi-Object Gray Decision-Making and Ca: a Case Study of Pidu District, Chengdu City

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liu, Z.; Li, Y.

2018-04-01

This paper from the perspective of the Neighbor cellular space, Proposed a new urban space expansion model based on a new multi-objective gray decision and CA. The model solved the traditional cellular automata conversion rules is difficult to meet the needs of the inner space-time analysis of urban changes and to overcome the problem of uncertainty in the combination of urban drivers and urban cellular automata. At the same time, the study takes Pidu District as a research area and carries out urban spatial simulation prediction and analysis, and draws the following conclusions: (1) The design idea of the urban spatial expansion model proposed in this paper is that the urban driving factor and the neighborhood function are tightly coupled by the multi-objective grey decision method based on geographical conditions. The simulation results show that the simulation error of urban spatial expansion is less than 5.27 %. The Kappa coefficient is 0.84. It shows that the model can better capture the inner transformation mechanism of the city. (2) We made a simulation prediction for Pidu District of Chengdu by discussing Pidu District of Chengdu as a system instance.In this way, we analyzed the urban growth tendency of this area.presenting a contiguous increasing mode, which is called "urban intensive development". This expansion mode accorded with sustainable development theory and the ecological urbanization design theory.

Model of urban water management towards water sensitive city: a literature review

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Maftuhah, D. I.; Anityasari, M.; Sholihah, M.

2018-04-01

Nowadays, many cities are facing with complex issues such as climate change, social, economic, culture, and environmental problems, especially urban water. In other words, the city has to struggle with the challenge to make sure its sustainability in all aspects. This research focuses on how to ensure the city sustainability and resilience on urban water management. Many research were not only conducted in urban water management, but also in sustainability itself. Moreover, water sustainability shifts from urban water management into water sensitive city. This transition needs comprehensive aspects such as social, institutional dynamics, technical innovation, and local contents. Some literatures about model of urban water management and the transition towards water sensitivity had been reviewed in this study. This study proposed discussion about model of urban water management and the transition towards water sensitive city. Research findings suggest that there are many different models developed in urban water management, but they are not comprehensive yet and only few studies discuss about the transition towards water sensitive and resilience city. The drawbacks of previous research can identify and fulfill the gap of this study. Therefore, the paper contributes a general framework for the urban water management modelling studies.

Urban weather data and building models for the inclusion of the urban heat island effect in building performance simulation.

PubMed

Palme, M; Inostroza, L; Villacreses, G; Lobato, A; Carrasco, C

2017-10-01

This data article presents files supporting calculation for urban heat island (UHI) inclusion in building performance simulation (BPS). Methodology is used in the research article "From urban climate to energy consumption. Enhancing building performance simulation by including the urban heat island effect" (Palme et al., 2017) [1]. In this research, a Geographical Information System (GIS) study is done in order to statistically represent the most important urban scenarios of four South-American cities (Guayaquil, Lima, Antofagasta and Valparaíso). Then, a Principal Component Analysis (PCA) is done to obtain reference Urban Tissues Categories (UTC) to be used in urban weather simulation. The urban weather files are generated by using the Urban Weather Generator (UWG) software (version 4.1 beta). Finally, BPS is run out with the Transient System Simulation (TRNSYS) software (version 17). In this data paper, four sets of data are presented: 1) PCA data (excel) to explain how to group different urban samples in representative UTC; 2) UWG data (text) to reproduce the Urban Weather Generation for the UTC used in the four cities (4 UTC in Lima, Guayaquil, Antofagasta and 5 UTC in Valparaíso); 3) weather data (text) with the resulting rural and urban weather; 4) BPS models (text) data containing the TRNSYS models (four building models).

Scale effect challenges in urban hydrology highlighted with a distributed hydrological model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ichiba, Abdellah; Gires, Auguste; Tchiguirinskaia, Ioulia; Schertzer, Daniel; Bompard, Philippe; Ten Veldhuis, Marie-Claire

2018-01-01

Hydrological models are extensively used in urban water management, development and evaluation of future scenarios and research activities. There is a growing interest in the development of fully distributed and grid-based models. However, some complex questions related to scale effects are not yet fully understood and still remain open issues in urban hydrology. In this paper we propose a two-step investigation framework to illustrate the extent of scale effects in urban hydrology. First, fractal tools are used to highlight the scale dependence observed within distributed data input into urban hydrological models. Then an intensive multi-scale modelling work is carried out to understand scale effects on hydrological model performance. Investigations are conducted using a fully distributed and physically based model, Multi-Hydro, developed at Ecole des Ponts ParisTech. The model is implemented at 17 spatial resolutions ranging from 100 to 5 m. Results clearly exhibit scale effect challenges in urban hydrology modelling. The applicability of fractal concepts highlights the scale dependence observed within distributed data. Patterns of geophysical data change when the size of the observation pixel changes. The multi-scale modelling investigation confirms scale effects on hydrological model performance. Results are analysed over three ranges of scales identified in the fractal analysis and confirmed through modelling. This work also discusses some remaining issues in urban hydrology modelling related to the availability of high-quality data at high resolutions, and model numerical instabilities as well as the computation time requirements. The main findings of this paper enable a replacement of traditional methods of model calibration by innovative methods of model resolution alteration based on the spatial data variability and scaling of flows in urban hydrology.

NASA Experimental Program to Stimulate Competitive Research: South Carolina

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Sutton, Michael A.

2004-01-01

The use of an appropriate relationship model is critical for reliable prediction of future urban growth. Identification of proper variables and mathematic functions and determination of the weights or coefficients are the key tasks for building such a model. Although the conventional logistic regression model is appropriate for handing land use problems, it appears insufficient to address the issue of interdependency of the predictor variables. This study used an alternative approach to simulation and modeling urban growth using artificial neural networks. It developed an operational neural network model trained using a robust backpropagation method. The model was applied in the Myrtle Beach region of South Carolina, and tested with both global datasets and areal datasets to examine the strength of both regional models and areal models. The results indicate that the neural network model not only has many theoretic advantages over other conventional mathematic models in representing the complex urban systems, but also is practically superior to the logistic model in its capability to predict urban growth with better - accuracy and less variation. The neural network model is particularly effective in terms of successfully identifying urban patterns in the rural areas where the logistic model often falls short. It was also found from the area-based tests that there are significant intra-regional differentiations in urban growth with different rules and rates. This suggests that the global modeling approach, or one model for the entire region, may not be adequate for simulation of a urban growth at the regional scale. Future research should develop methods for identification and subdivision of these areas and use a set of area-based models to address the issues of multi-centered, intra- regionally differentiated urban growth.

Mapping urban environmental noise: a land use regression method.

PubMed

Xie, Dan; Liu, Yi; Chen, Jining

2011-09-01

Forecasting and preventing urban noise pollution are major challenges in urban environmental management. Most existing efforts, including experiment-based models, statistical models, and noise mapping, however, have limited capacity to explain the association between urban growth and corresponding noise change. Therefore, these conventional methods can hardly forecast urban noise at a given outlook of development layout. This paper, for the first time, introduces a land use regression method, which has been applied for simulating urban air quality for a decade, to construct an urban noise model (LUNOS) in Dalian Municipality, Northwest China. The LUNOS model describes noise as a dependent variable of surrounding various land areas via a regressive function. The results suggest that a linear model performs better in fitting monitoring data, and there is no significant difference of the LUNOS's outputs when applied to different spatial scales. As the LUNOS facilitates a better understanding of the association between land use and urban environmental noise in comparison to conventional methods, it can be regarded as a promising tool for noise prediction for planning purposes and aid smart decision-making.

Global Urban Mapping and Modeling for Sustainable Urban Development

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhou, Y.; Li, X.; Asrar, G.; Yu, S.; Smith, S.; Eom, J.; Imhoff, M. L.

2016-12-01

In the past several decades, the world has experienced fast urbanization, and this trend is expected to continue for decades to come. Urbanization, one of the major land cover and land use changes (LCLUC), is becoming increasingly important in global environmental changes, such as urban heat island (UHI) growth and vegetation phenology change. Better scientific insights and effective decision-making unarguably require reliable science-based information on spatiotemporal changes in urban extent and their environmental impacts. In this study, we developed a globally consistent 20-year urban map series to evaluate the time-reactive nature of global urbanization from the nighttime lights remote sensing data, and projected future urban expansion in the 21st century by employing an integrated modeling framework (Zhou et al. 2014, Zhou et al. 2015). We then evaluated the impacts of urbanization on building energy use and vegetation phenology that affect both ecosystem services and human health. We extended the modeling capability of building energy use in the Global Change Assessment Model (GCAM) with consideration of UHI effects by coupling the remote sensing based urbanization modeling and explored the impact of UHI on building energy use. We also investigated the impact of urbanization on vegetation phenology by using an improved phenology detection algorithm. The derived spatiotemporal information on historical and potential future urbanization and its implications in building energy use and vegetation phenology will be of great value in sustainable urban design and development for building energy use and human health (e.g., pollen allergy), especially when considered together with other factors such as climate variability and change. Zhou, Y., S. J. Smith, C. D. Elvidge, K. Zhao, A. Thomson & M. Imhoff (2014) A cluster-based method to map urban area from DMSP/OLS nightlights. Remote Sensing of Environment, 147, 173-185. Zhou, Y., S. J. Smith, K. Zhao, M. Imhoff, A. Thomson, B. Bond-Lamberty, G. R. Asrar, X. Zhang, C. He & C. D. Elvidge (2015) A global map of urban extent from nightlights. Environmental Research Letters, 10, 054011.

Diurnal changes in urban boundary layer environment induced by urban greening

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Song, Jiyun; Wang, Zhi-Hua

2016-11-01

Urban green infrastructure has been widely used for mitigating adverse environmental problems as well as enhancing urban sustainability of cities worldwide. Here we develop an integrated urban-land-atmosphere modeling framework with the land surface processes parameterized by an advanced urban canopy model and the atmospheric processes parameterized by a single column model. The model is then applied to simulate a variety of forms of green infrastructure, including urban lawns, shade trees, green and cool roofs, and their impact on environmental changes in the total urban boundary layer (UBL) for a stereotypical desert city, viz. Phoenix, Arizona. It was found that green roofs have a relatively uniform cooling effect proportional to their areal coverage. In particular, a reduction of UBL temperature of 0.3 °C and 0.2 °C per 10% increase of green roof coverage was observed at daytime and nighttime, respectively. In contrast, the effect of greening of street canyons is constrained by the overall abundance of green infrastructure and the energy available for evapotranspiration. In addition, the increase in urban greening causes boundary-layer height to decrease during daytime but increase at nighttime, leading to different trends of changes in urban air quality throughout a diurnal cycle.

The application of a Web-geographic information system for improving urban water cycle modelling.

PubMed

Mair, M; Mikovits, C; Sengthaler, M; Schöpf, M; Kinzel, H; Urich, C; Kleidorfer, M; Sitzenfrei, R; Rauch, W

2014-01-01

Research in urban water management has experienced a transition from traditional model applications to modelling water cycles as an integrated part of urban areas. This includes the interlinking of models of many research areas (e.g. urban development, socio-economy, urban water management). The integration and simulation is realized in newly developed frameworks (e.g. DynaMind and OpenMI) and often assumes a high knowledge in programming. This work presents a Web based urban water management modelling platform which simplifies the setup and usage of complex integrated models. The platform is demonstrated with a small application example on a case study within the Alpine region. The used model is a DynaMind model benchmarking the impact of newly connected catchments on the flooding behaviour of an existing combined sewer system. As a result the workflow of the user within a Web browser is demonstrated and benchmark results are shown. The presented platform hides implementation specific aspects behind Web services based technologies such that the user can focus on his main aim, which is urban water management modelling and benchmarking. Moreover, this platform offers a centralized data management, automatic software updates and access to high performance computers accessible with desktop computers and mobile devices.

The Urban Dust Dome: A Demonstration Model

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Cross, Ralph D.

1973-01-01

Working plans for an inexpensive urban dust dome model are presented together with some generalizations about urban atmosphere pollution. Theories and principles of atmospheric pollution which are introduced can be made meaningful to elementary students through classroom use of this model. (SM)

Application of the ACASA model for urban development studies

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Marras, S.; Pyles, R. D.; Falk, M.; Snyder, R. L.; Paw U, K. T.; Blecic, I.; Trunfio, G. A.; Cecchini, A.; Spano, D.

2012-04-01

Since urban population is growing fast and urban areas are recognized as the major source of CO2 emissions, more attention has being dedicated to the topic of urban sustainability and its connection with the climate. Urban flows of energy, water and carbon have an important impact on climate change and their quantification is pivotal in the city design and management. Large effort has been devoted to quantitative estimates of the urban metabolism components, and several advanced models have been developed and used at different spatial and temporal scales for this purpose. However, it is necessary to develop suitable tools and indicators to effectively support urban planning and management with the goal of achieving a more sustainable metabolism in the urban environment. In this study, the multilayer model ACASA (Advanced Canopy-Atmosphere-Soil Algorithm) was chosen to simulate the exchanges of heat, water vapour and CO2 within and above urban canopy. After several calibration and evaluation tests over natural and agricultural ecosystems, the model was recently modified for application in urban and peri-urban areas. New equations to account for the anthropogenic contribution to heat exchange and carbon production, as well as key parameterizations of leaf-facet scale interactions to separate both biogenic and anthropogenic flux sources and sinks, were added to test changes in land use or urban planning strategies. The analysis was based on the evaluation of the ACASA model performance in estimating urban metabolism components at local scale. Simulated sensible heat, latent heat, and carbon fluxes were compared with in situ Eddy Covariance measurements collected in the city centre of Florence (Italy). Statistical analysis was performed to test the model accuracy and reliability. Model sensitivity to soil types and increased population density values was conducted to investigate the potential use of ACASA for evaluating the impact of planning alternative scenarios. In this contest, an in progress application of ACASA for estimating carbon exchanges alternative scenarios is represented by its integration in a software framework composed by: (i) a Cellular Automata model to simulate the urban land-use dynamics; (ii) a transportation model, able to estimate the variation of the transportation network load; (iii) the ACASA model, and (iv) the mesoscale weather model WRF for the estimation of the relevant urban metabolism components at regional scale. The CA module is able to produce future land use maps, which represent a spatial distribution of the aggregate land-use demand consistent with the main rules governing the functioning of an urban system. Such future land use maps, together with the street network including the current traffic data, are used by the transportation module for estimating future traffic data coherent with the assumed land uses trends. All these information are then used by the coupled model WRF-ACASA for estimating future maps of CO2 fluxes in the urban area under consideration, allowing to estimate the impact of future planning strategies in reducing C emissions. The in-progress application of this system to the city of Florence is presented here.

Simulations of Moscow megacity heat island with the COSMO-CLM model using two different urban canopy schemes and realistic building parameters, derived from OpenStreetMap data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Varentsov, Mikhail; Wouters, Hendrik; Trusilova, Kristina; Samsonov, Timofey; Konstantinov, Pavel

2017-04-01

In this study we present the application of the regional climate model COSMO-CLM to simulate urban heat island (UHI) phenomenon for Moscow megacity, which is the biggest agglomeration in Europe (with modern population of more than 17 million people). Significant differences of Moscow from the cities of Western Europe are related with much more continental climate with higher diurnal and annual temperature variations, and with specific building features such as its high density and almost total predominance of high-rise and low-rise blocks of flats on the private low-rise houses. Because of these building and climate features, the UHI of Moscow megacity is stronger than UHIs of many other cities of the similar size, with a mean intensity is about 2 °C and maximum intensity reaching up to 13 °C (Lokoschenko, 2014). Such a pronounced UHI together with the existence of an extensive observation network (more than 50 weather and air quality monitoring stations and few microwave temperature profilers) within the city and its surrounding make Moscow an especially interesting place for urban climate researches and good testbed for urban canopy models. In our numerical experiments, regional climate model firstly was adapted for investigated region with aim to improve quality of its simulations of rural areas. Then, to take into account urban canopy effects on thermal regime of the urbanized areas, we used two different versions of COSMO-CLM model. First is coupled with TEB (Town Energy Balance) single layer urban canopy model (Trusilova, 2013), and second is extended with bulk urban canopy scheme TERRA_URB using the Semi-empircal URban-canopY dependency parametriation SURY (Wouters et. al, 2016). Numerical experiments with these two versions of the model were run with spatial resolution about 1 km for several summer and winter months. To provide specific parameters, required for urban parameterizations, such as urban fraction, building height and street canyon aspect ratio, we used originally technology of GIS-based processing of realistic OpenStreetMap data, which includes size and shape of the most of the in the city (Samsonov et al., 2015). Our testbed allows to make more detailed comparison between the modelling approaches, and also reveals the importance of correct definition of the of turbulent mixing in the ABL in the atmospheric model, and the realistic specification of the building morphology parameters and anthropogenic heat fluxes. In addition, strong seasonal variation of the importance of different factors, responsible for UHI appearance, was shown. Moreover, the framework allows to identify and solve issues regarding the different model approaches: detailed analysis of spatial and temporal variations of modelled urban temperature anomalies and their vertical extent has shown that version of COSMO-CLM model with TERRA-URB scheme simulate UHI effect in more realistic way. Research was supported by Russian Foundation for Basic Research (RFBR) and Russian Geographic Society (RGS): RFBR projects № 16-35-00474, 15-35-21129 and 16-05-00704 A, RGS-RFBR project № 13-05-41306. References: 1. Lokoshchenko, M. A. (2014). Urban 'heat island' in Moscow. Urban Climate, 10, 550-562. 2. Samsonov, T. E., Konstantinov, P. I., & Varentsov, M. I. (2015). Object-oriented approach to urban canyon analysis and its applications in meteorological modeling. Urban Climate, 13, 122-139. 3. Trusilova K., Früh, B., Brienen, S., Walter, A., Masson, V., Pigeon, G., Becker, P. Implementation of an Urban Parameterization Scheme into the Regional Climate Model COSMO-CLM// Journal of Applied Meteorology and Climatology. 2013. Vol. 52. P. 2296-2311. 4. Wouters, H., Demuzere, M., Blahak, U., Fortuniak, K., Maiheu, B., Camps, J., & van Lipzig, N. P. (2016). The efficient urban canopy dependency parametrization (SURY) v1.0 for atmospheric modelling: description and application with the COSMO-CLM model for a Belgian summer. Geoscientific Model Development, 9(9), 3027-3054.

Proceedings of the Workshop on Transportation/Urban Form Interactions held at Cambridge, MA. on August 14-15, 1978

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

1979-06-01

Contents: A form of utility function for the UMOT model; An analysis of transportation/land use interactions; Toward a methodology to shape urban structure; Approaches for improving urban travel forecasts; Quasi-dynamic urban location models with end...

Statistical modeling of urban air temperature distributions under different synoptic conditions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Beck, Christoph; Breitner, Susanne; Cyrys, Josef; Hald, Cornelius; Hartz, Uwe; Jacobeit, Jucundus; Richter, Katja; Schneider, Alexandra; Wolf, Kathrin

2015-04-01

Within urban areas air temperature may vary distinctly between different locations. These intra-urban air temperature variations partly reach magnitudes that are relevant with respect to human thermal comfort. Therefore and furthermore taking into account potential interrelations with other health related environmental factors (e.g. air quality) it is important to estimate spatial patterns of intra-urban air temperature distributions that may be incorporated into urban planning processes. In this contribution we present an approach to estimate spatial temperature distributions in the urban area of Augsburg (Germany) by means of statistical modeling. At 36 locations in the urban area of Augsburg air temperatures are measured with high temporal resolution (4 min.) since December 2012. These 36 locations represent different typical urban land use characteristics in terms of varying percentage coverages of different land cover categories (e.g. impervious, built-up, vegetated). Percentage coverages of these land cover categories have been extracted from different sources (Open Street Map, European Urban Atlas, Urban Morphological Zones) for regular grids of varying size (50, 100, 200 meter horizonal resolution) for the urban area of Augsburg. It is well known from numerous studies that land use characteristics have a distinct influence on air temperature and as well other climatic variables at a certain location. Therefore air temperatures at the 36 locations are modeled utilizing land use characteristics (percentage coverages of land cover categories) as predictor variables in Stepwise Multiple Regression models and in Random Forest based model approaches. After model evaluation via cross-validation appropriate statistical models are applied to gridded land use data to derive spatial urban air temperature distributions. Varying models are tested and applied for different seasons and times of the day and also for different synoptic conditions (e.g. clear and calm situations, cloudy and windy situations). Based on hourly air temperature data from our measurements in the urban area of Augsburg distinct temperature differences between locations with different urban land use characteristics are revealed. Under clear and calm weather conditions differences between mean hourly air temperatures reach values around 8°C. Whereas during cloudy and windy weather maximum differences in mean hourly air temperatures do not exceed 5°C. Differences appear usually slightly more pronounced in summer than in winter. First results from the application of statistical modeling approaches reveal promising skill of the models in terms of explained variances reaching up to 60% in leave-one-out cross-validation experiments. The contribution depicts the methodology of our approach and presents and discusses first results.

Modelling spatial patterns of urban growth in Africa

PubMed Central

Linard, Catherine; Tatem, Andrew J.; Gilbert, Marius

2013-01-01

The population of Africa is predicted to double over the next 40 years, driving exceptionally high urban expansion rates that will induce significant socio-economic, environmental and health changes. In order to prepare for these changes, it is important to better understand urban growth dynamics in Africa and better predict the spatial pattern of rural-urban conversions. Previous work on urban expansion has been carried out at the city level or at the global level with a relatively coarse 5–10 km resolution. The main objective of the present paper was to develop a modelling approach at an intermediate scale in order to identify factors that influence spatial patterns of urban expansion in Africa. Boosted Regression Tree models were developed to predict the spatial pattern of rural-urban conversions in every large African city. Urban change data between circa 1990 and circa 2000 available for 20 large cities across Africa were used as training data. Results showed that the urban land in a 1 km neighbourhood and the accessibility to the city centre were the most influential variables. Results obtained were generally more accurate than results obtained using a distance-based urban expansion model and showed that the spatial pattern of small, compact and fast growing cities were easier to simulate than cities with lower population densities and a lower growth rate. The simulation method developed here will allow the production of spatially detailed urban expansion forecasts for 2020 and 2025 for Africa, data that are increasingly required by global change modellers. PMID:25152552

Evaluation of urban surface parameterizations in the WRF model using measurements during the Texas Air Quality Study 2006 field campaign

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lee, S.-H.; Kim, S.-W.; Angevine, W. M.; Bianco, L.; McKeen, S. A.; Senff, C. J.; Trainer, M.; Tucker, S. C.; Zamora, R. J.

2010-10-01

The impact of urban surface parameterizations in the WRF (Weather Research and Forecasting) model on the simulation of local meteorological fields is investigated. The Noah land surface model (LSM), a modified LSM, and a single-layer urban canopy model (UCM) have been compared, focusing on urban patches. The model simulations were performed for 6 days from 12 August to 17 August during the Texas Air Quality Study 2006 field campaign. Analysis was focused on the Houston-Galveston metropolitan area. The model simulated temperature, wind, and atmospheric boundary layer (ABL) height were compared with observations from surface meteorological stations (Continuous Ambient Monitoring Stations, CAMS), wind profilers, the NOAA Twin Otter aircraft, and the NOAA Research Vessel Ronald H. Brown. The UCM simulation showed better results in the comparison of ABL height and surface temperature than the LSM simulations, whereas the original LSM overestimated both the surface temperature and ABL height significantly in urban areas. The modified LSM, which activates hydrological processes associated with urban vegetation mainly through transpiration, slightly reduced warm and high biases in surface temperature and ABL height. A comparison of surface energy balance fluxes in an urban area indicated the UCM reproduces a realistic partitioning of sensible heat and latent heat fluxes, consequently improving the simulation of urban boundary layer. However, the LSMs have a higher Bowen ratio than the observation due to significant suppression of latent heat flux. The comparison results suggest that the subgrid heterogeneity by urban vegetation and urban morphological characteristics should be taken into account along with the associated physical parameterizations for accurate simulation of urban boundary layer if the region of interest has a large fraction of vegetation within the urban patch. Model showed significant discrepancies in the specific meteorological conditions when nocturnal low-level jets exist and a thermal internal boundary layer over water forms.

Mapping behavioral landscapes for animal movement: a finite mixture modeling approach

USGS Publications Warehouse

Tracey, Jeff A.; Zhu, Jun; Boydston, Erin E.; Lyren, Lisa M.; Fisher, Robert N.; Crooks, Kevin R.

2013-01-01

Because of its role in many ecological processes, movement of animals in response to landscape features is an important subject in ecology and conservation biology. In this paper, we develop models of animal movement in relation to objects or fields in a landscape. We take a finite mixture modeling approach in which the component densities are conceptually related to different choices for movement in response to a landscape feature, and the mixing proportions are related to the probability of selecting each response as a function of one or more covariates. We combine particle swarm optimization and an Expectation-Maximization (EM) algorithm to obtain maximum likelihood estimates of the model parameters. We use this approach to analyze data for movement of three bobcats in relation to urban areas in southern California, USA. A behavioral interpretation of the models revealed similarities and differences in bobcat movement response to urbanization. All three bobcats avoided urbanization by moving either parallel to urban boundaries or toward less urban areas as the proportion of urban land cover in the surrounding area increased. However, one bobcat, a male with a dispersal-like large-scale movement pattern, avoided urbanization at lower densities and responded strictly by moving parallel to the urban edge. The other two bobcats, which were both residents and occupied similar geographic areas, avoided urban areas using a combination of movements parallel to the urban edge and movement toward areas of less urbanization. However, the resident female appeared to exhibit greater repulsion at lower levels of urbanization than the resident male, consistent with empirical observations of bobcats in southern California. Using the parameterized finite mixture models, we mapped behavioral states to geographic space, creating a representation of a behavioral landscape. This approach can provide guidance for conservation planning based on analysis of animal movement data using statistical models, thereby linking connectivity evaluations to empirical data.

Overcoming the Subject-Object Dichotomy in Urban Modeling: Axial Maps as Geometric Representations of Affordances in the Built Environment

PubMed Central

Marcus, Lars

2018-01-01

The world is witnessing unprecedented urbanization, bringing extreme challenges to contemporary practices in urban planning and design. This calls for improved urban models that can generate new knowledge and enhance practical skill. Importantly, any urban model embodies a conception of the relation between humans and the physical environment. In urban modeling this is typically conceived of as a relation between human subjects and an environmental object, thereby reproducing a humans-environment dichotomy. Alternative modeling traditions, such as space syntax that originates in architecture rather than geography, have tried to overcome this dichotomy. Central in this effort is the development of new representations of urban space, such as in the case of space syntax, the axial map. This form of representation aims to integrate both human behavior and the physical environment into one and the same description. Interestingly, models based on these representations have proved to better capture pedestrian movement than regular models. Pedestrian movement, as well as other kinds of human flows in urban space, is essential for urban modeling, since increasingly flows of this kind are understood as the driver in urban processes. Critical for a full understanding of space syntax modeling is the ontology of its' representations, such as the axial map. Space syntax theory here often refers to James Gibson's “Theory of affordances,” where the concept of affordances, in a manner similar to axial maps, aims to bridge the subject-object dichotomy by neither constituting physical properties of the environment or human behavior, but rather what emerges in the meeting between the two. In extension of this, the axial map can be interpreted as a representation of how the physical form of the environment affords human accessibility and visibility in urban space. This paper presents a close examination of the form of representations developed in space syntax methodology, in particular in the light of Gibson's “theory of affordances.“ The overarching aim is to contribute to a theoretical framework for urban models based on affordances, which may support the overcoming of the subject-object dichotomy in such models, here deemed essential for a greater social-ecological sustainability of cities. PMID:29731726

A socio-technical model to explore urban water systems scenarios.

PubMed

de Haan, Fjalar J; Ferguson, Briony C; Deletic, Ana; Brown, Rebekah R

2013-01-01

This article reports on the ongoing work and research involved in the development of a socio-technical model of urban water systems. Socio-technical means the model is not so much concerned with the technical or biophysical aspects of urban water systems, but rather with the social and institutional implications of the urban water infrastructure and vice versa. A socio-technical model, in the view purported in this article, produces scenarios of different urban water servicing solutions gaining or losing influence in meeting water-related societal needs, like potable water, drainage, environmental health and amenity. The urban water system is parameterised with vectors of the relative influence of each servicing solution. The model is a software implementation of the Multi-Pattern Approach, a theory on societal systems, like urban water systems, and how these develop and go through transitions under various internal and external conditions. Acknowledging that social dynamics comes with severe and non-reducible uncertainties, the model is set up to be exploratory, meaning that for any initial condition several possible future scenarios are produced. This article gives a concise overview of the necessary theoretical background, the model architecture and some initial test results using a drainage example.

Todaro migration and primacy models: relevance to the urbanization of the Philippines.

PubMed

Cuervo, J C; Kim Hin, D H

1998-08-01

"This paper looks into the set of factors that [influence] the urbanization of the Philippines, a fast-growing developing economy in South East Asia. The paper demonstrates that the ¿migration primacy urbanization model' is an appropriate one that is able to explain the urbanization case in the Philippines. The model draws supporting evidence from rank-size distribution analysis of major cities in the Philippines, a detailed examination of historical, geopolitical and economic forces which have evolved in the development of the Philippines as a sovereign state, and the applicability of the Todaro model on rural-urban migration to the Philippines." excerpt

Urban Growth Modeling Using Cellular Automata with Multi-Temporal Remote Sensing Images Calibrated by the Artificial Bee Colony Optimization Algorithm.

PubMed

Naghibi, Fereydoun; Delavar, Mahmoud Reza; Pijanowski, Bryan

2016-12-14

Cellular Automata (CA) is one of the most common techniques used to simulate the urbanization process. CA-based urban models use transition rules to deliver spatial patterns of urban growth and urban dynamics over time. Determining the optimum transition rules of the CA is a critical step because of the heterogeneity and nonlinearities existing among urban growth driving forces. Recently, new CA models integrated with optimization methods based on swarm intelligence algorithms were proposed to overcome this drawback. The Artificial Bee Colony (ABC) algorithm is an advanced meta-heuristic swarm intelligence-based algorithm. Here, we propose a novel CA-based urban change model that uses the ABC algorithm to extract optimum transition rules. We applied the proposed ABC-CA model to simulate future urban growth in Urmia (Iran) with multi-temporal Landsat images from 1997, 2006 and 2015. Validation of the simulation results was made through statistical methods such as overall accuracy, the figure of merit and total operating characteristics (TOC). Additionally, we calibrated the CA model by ant colony optimization (ACO) to assess the performance of our proposed model versus similar swarm intelligence algorithm methods. We showed that the overall accuracy and the figure of merit of the ABC-CA model are 90.1% and 51.7%, which are 2.9% and 8.8% higher than those of the ACO-CA model, respectively. Moreover, the allocation disagreement of the simulation results for the ABC-CA model is 9.9%, which is 2.9% less than that of the ACO-CA model. Finally, the ABC-CA model also outperforms the ACO-CA model with fewer quantity and allocation errors and slightly more hits.

Urban Growth Modeling Using Cellular Automata with Multi-Temporal Remote Sensing Images Calibrated by the Artificial Bee Colony Optimization Algorithm

PubMed Central

Naghibi, Fereydoun; Delavar, Mahmoud Reza; Pijanowski, Bryan

2016-01-01

Cellular Automata (CA) is one of the most common techniques used to simulate the urbanization process. CA-based urban models use transition rules to deliver spatial patterns of urban growth and urban dynamics over time. Determining the optimum transition rules of the CA is a critical step because of the heterogeneity and nonlinearities existing among urban growth driving forces. Recently, new CA models integrated with optimization methods based on swarm intelligence algorithms were proposed to overcome this drawback. The Artificial Bee Colony (ABC) algorithm is an advanced meta-heuristic swarm intelligence-based algorithm. Here, we propose a novel CA-based urban change model that uses the ABC algorithm to extract optimum transition rules. We applied the proposed ABC-CA model to simulate future urban growth in Urmia (Iran) with multi-temporal Landsat images from 1997, 2006 and 2015. Validation of the simulation results was made through statistical methods such as overall accuracy, the figure of merit and total operating characteristics (TOC). Additionally, we calibrated the CA model by ant colony optimization (ACO) to assess the performance of our proposed model versus similar swarm intelligence algorithm methods. We showed that the overall accuracy and the figure of merit of the ABC-CA model are 90.1% and 51.7%, which are 2.9% and 8.8% higher than those of the ACO-CA model, respectively. Moreover, the allocation disagreement of the simulation results for the ABC-CA model is 9.9%, which is 2.9% less than that of the ACO-CA model. Finally, the ABC-CA model also outperforms the ACO-CA model with fewer quantity and allocation errors and slightly more hits. PMID:27983633

Physics-based statistical model and simulation method of RF propagation in urban environments

DOEpatents

Pao, Hsueh-Yuan; Dvorak, Steven L.

2010-09-14

A physics-based statistical model and simulation/modeling method and system of electromagnetic wave propagation (wireless communication) in urban environments. In particular, the model is a computationally efficient close-formed parametric model of RF propagation in an urban environment which is extracted from a physics-based statistical wireless channel simulation method and system. The simulation divides the complex urban environment into a network of interconnected urban canyon waveguides which can be analyzed individually; calculates spectral coefficients of modal fields in the waveguides excited by the propagation using a database of statistical impedance boundary conditions which incorporates the complexity of building walls in the propagation model; determines statistical parameters of the calculated modal fields; and determines a parametric propagation model based on the statistical parameters of the calculated modal fields from which predictions of communications capability may be made.

Effects of air pollution on thermal structure and dispersion in an urban planetary boundary layer

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Viskanta, R.; Johnson, R. O.; Bergstrom, R. W.

1977-01-01

The short-term effects of urbanization and air pollution on the transport processes in the urban planetary boundary layer (PBL) are studied. The investigation makes use of an unsteady two-dimensional transport model which has been developed by Viskanta et al., (1976). The model predicts pollutant concentrations and temperature in the PBL. The potential effects of urbanization and air pollution on the thermal structure in the urban PBL are considered, taking into account the results of numerical simulations modeling the St. Louis, Missouri metropolitan area.

[Employment and urban growth; an application of Czamanski's model to the Mexican case].

PubMed

Verduzco Chavez, B

1991-01-01

The author applies the 1964 model developed by Stanislaw Czamanski, based on theories of urban growth and industrial localization, to the analysis of urban growth in Mexico. "The advantages of this model in its application as a support instrument in the process of urban planning when the information available is incomplete are...discussed...." Census data for 44 cities in Mexico are used. (SUMMARY IN ENG) excerpt

Ensemble urban flood simulation in comparison with laboratory-scale experiments: Impact of interaction models for manhole, sewer pipe, and surface flow

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Noh, Seong Jin; Lee, Seungsoo; An, Hyunuk; Kawaike, Kenji; Nakagawa, Hajime

2016-11-01

An urban flood is an integrated phenomenon that is affected by various uncertainty sources such as input forcing, model parameters, complex geometry, and exchanges of flow among different domains in surfaces and subsurfaces. Despite considerable advances in urban flood modeling techniques, limited knowledge is currently available with regard to the impact of dynamic interaction among different flow domains on urban floods. In this paper, an ensemble method for urban flood modeling is presented to consider the parameter uncertainty of interaction models among a manhole, a sewer pipe, and surface flow. Laboratory-scale experiments on urban flood and inundation are performed under various flow conditions to investigate the parameter uncertainty of interaction models. The results show that ensemble simulation using interaction models based on weir and orifice formulas reproduces experimental data with high accuracy and detects the identifiability of model parameters. Among interaction-related parameters, the parameters of the sewer-manhole interaction show lower uncertainty than those of the sewer-surface interaction. Experimental data obtained under unsteady-state conditions are more informative than those obtained under steady-state conditions to assess the parameter uncertainty of interaction models. Although the optimal parameters vary according to the flow conditions, the difference is marginal. Simulation results also confirm the capability of the interaction models and the potential of the ensemble-based approaches to facilitate urban flood simulation.

Flood analysis in mixed-urban areas reflecting interactions with the complete water cycle through coupled hydrologic-hydraulic modelling.

PubMed

Sto Domingo, N D; Refsgaard, A; Mark, O; Paludan, B

2010-01-01

The potential devastating effects of urban flooding have given high importance to thorough understanding and management of water movement within catchments, and computer modelling tools have found widespread use for this purpose. The state-of-the-art in urban flood modelling is the use of a coupled 1D pipe and 2D overland flow model to simultaneously represent pipe and surface flows. This method has been found to be accurate for highly paved areas, but inappropriate when land hydrology is important. The objectives of this study are to introduce a new urban flood modelling procedure that is able to reflect system interactions with hydrology, verify that the new procedure operates well, and underline the importance of considering the complete water cycle in urban flood analysis. A physically-based and distributed hydrological model was linked to a drainage network model for urban flood analysis, and the essential components and concepts used were described in this study. The procedure was then applied to a catchment previously modelled with the traditional 1D-2D procedure to determine if the new method performs similarly well. Then, results from applying the new method in a mixed-urban area were analyzed to determine how important hydrologic contributions are to flooding in the area.

Validation of Martilli's urban boundary layer scheme with measurements from two mid-latitude European cities

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hamdi, R.; Schayes, G.

2007-08-01

Martilli's urban parameterization scheme is improved and implemented in a mesoscale model in order to take into account the typical effects of a real city on the air temperature near the ground and on the surface exchange fluxes. The mesoscale model is run on a single column using atmospheric data and radiation recorded above roof level as forcing. Here, the authors validate Martilli's urban boundary layer scheme using measurements from two mid-latitude European cities: Basel, Switzerland and Marseilles, France. For Basel, the model performance is evaluated with observations of canyon temperature, surface radiation, and energy balance fluxes obtained during the Basel urban boundary layer experiment (BUBBLE). The results show that the urban parameterization scheme represents correctly most of the behavior of the fluxes typical of the city center of Basel, including the large heat uptake by the urban fabric and the positive sensible heat flux at night. For Marseilles, the model performance is evaluated with observations of surface temperature, canyon temperature, surface radiation, and energy balance fluxes collected during the field experiments to constrain models of atmospheric pollution and transport of emissions (ESCOMPTE) and its urban boundary layer (UBL) campaign. At both urban sites, vegetation cover is less than 20%, therefore, particular attention was directed to the ability of Martilli's urban boundary layer scheme to reproduce the observations for the Marseilles city center, where the urban parameters and the synoptic forcing are totally different from Basel. Evaluation of the model with wall, road, and roof surface temperatures gave good results. The model correctly simulates the net radiation, canyon temperature, and the partitioning between the turbulent and storage heat fluxes.

Excellent approach to modeling urban expansion by fuzzy cellular automata: agent base model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Khajavigodellou, Yousef; Alesheikh, Ali A.; Mohammed, Abdulrazak A. S.; Chapi, Kamran

2014-09-01

Recently, the interaction between humans and their environment is the one of important challenges in the world. Landuse/ cover change (LUCC) is a complex process that includes actors and factors at different social and spatial levels. The complexity and dynamics of urban systems make the applicable practice of urban modeling very difficult. With the increased computational power and the greater availability of spatial data, micro-simulation such as the agent based and cellular automata simulation methods, has been developed by geographers, planners, and scholars, and it has shown great potential for representing and simulating the complexity of the dynamic processes involved in urban growth and land use change. This paper presents Fuzzy Cellular Automata in Geospatial Information System and remote Sensing to simulated and predicted urban expansion pattern. These FCA-based dynamic spatial urban models provide an improved ability to forecast and assess future urban growth and to create planning scenarios, allowing us to explore the potential impacts of simulations that correspond to urban planning and management policies. A fuzzy inference guided cellular automata approach. Semantic or linguistic knowledge on Land use change is expressed as fuzzy rules, based on which fuzzy inference is applied to determine the urban development potential for each pixel. The model integrates an ABM (agent-based model) and FCA (Fuzzy Cellular Automata) to investigate a complex decision-making process and future urban dynamic processes. Based on this model rapid development and green land protection under the influences of the behaviors and decision modes of regional authority agents, real estate developer agents, resident agents and non- resident agents and their interactions have been applied to predict the future development patterns of the Erbil metropolitan region.

Urban Canopy Effects in Regional Climate Simulations - An Inter-Model Comparison

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Halenka, T.; Huszar, P.; Belda, M.; Karlicky, J.

2017-12-01

To assess the impact of cities and urban surfaces on climate, the modeling approach is often used with inclusion of urban parameterization in land-surface interactions. This is especially important when going to higher resolution, which is common trend both in operational weather prediction and regional climate modelling. Model description of urban canopy related meteorological effects can, however, differ largely given especially the underlying surface models and the urban canopy parameterizations, representing a certain uncertainty. To assess this uncertainty is important for adaptation and mitigation measures often applied in the big cities, especially in connection to climate change perspective, which is one of the main task of the new project OP-PPR Proof of Concept UK. In this study we contribute to the estimation of this uncertainty by performing numerous experiments to assess the urban canopy meteorological forcing over central Europe on climate for the decade 2001-2010, using two regional climate models (RegCM4 and WRF) in 10 km resolution driven by ERA-Interim reanalyses, three surface schemes (BATS and CLM4.5 for RegCM4 and Noah for WRF) and five urban canopy parameterizations available: one bulk urban scheme, three single layer and a multilayer urban scheme. Effects of cities on urban and remote areas were evaluated. There are some differences in sensitivity of individual canopy model implementations to the UHI effects, depending on season and size of the city as well. Effect of reducing diurnal temperature range in cities (around 2 °C in summer mean) is noticeable in all simulations, independent to urban parameterization type and model, due to well-known warmer summer city nights. For the adaptation and mitigation purposes, rather than the average urban heat island intensity the distribution of it is more important providing the information on extreme UHI effects, e.g. during heat waves. We demonstrate that for big central European cities this effect can approach 10°C, even for not so big ones these extreme effects can go above 5°C.

[Location selection for Shenyang urban parks based on GIS and multi-objective location allocation model].

PubMed

Zhou, Yuan; Shi, Tie-Mao; Hu, Yuan-Man; Gao, Chang; Liu, Miao; Song, Lin-Qi

2011-12-01

Based on geographic information system (GIS) technology and multi-objective location-allocation (LA) model, and in considering of four relatively independent objective factors (population density level, air pollution level, urban heat island effect level, and urban land use pattern), an optimized location selection for the urban parks within the Third Ring of Shenyang was conducted, and the selection results were compared with the spatial distribution of existing parks, aimed to evaluate the rationality of the spatial distribution of urban green spaces. In the location selection of urban green spaces in the study area, the factor air pollution was most important, and, compared with single objective factor, the weighted analysis results of multi-objective factors could provide optimized spatial location selection of new urban green spaces. The combination of GIS technology with LA model would be a new approach for the spatial optimizing of urban green spaces.

Approaches to simulating the “March of Bricks and Mortar”

USGS Publications Warehouse

Goldstein, Noah Charles; Candau, J.T.; Clarke, K.C.

2004-01-01

Re-creation of the extent of urban land use at different periods in time is valuable for examining how cities grow and how policy changes influence urban dynamics. To date, there has been little focus on the modeling of historical urban extent (other than for ancient cities). Instead, current modeling research has emphasized simulating the cities of the future. Predictive models can provide insights into urban growth processes and are valuable for land-use and urban planners, yet historical trends are largely ignored. This is unfortunate since historical data exist for urban areas and can be used to quantitatively test dynamic models and theory. We maintain that understanding the growth dynamics of a region's past allows more intelligent forecasts of its future. We compare using a spatio-temporal interpolation method with an agent-based simulation approach to recreate the urban extent of Santa Barbara, California, annually from 1929 to 2001. The first method uses current yet incomplete data on the construction of homes in the region. The latter uses a Cellular Automata based model, SLEUTH, to back- or hind-cast the urban extent. The success at historical urban growth reproduction of the two approaches used in this work was quantified for comparison. The performance of each method is described, as well as the utility of each model in re-creating the history of Santa Barbara. Additionally, the models’ assumptions about space are contrasted. As a consequence, we propose that both approaches are useful in historical urban simulations, yet the cellular approach is more flexible as it can be extended for spatio-temporal extrapolation.

Increased Spatial Variability and Intensification of Extreme Monsoon Rainfall due to Urbanization.

PubMed

Paul, Supantha; Ghosh, Subimal; Mathew, Micky; Devanand, Anjana; Karmakar, Subhankar; Niyogi, Dev

2018-03-02

While satellite data provides a strong robust signature of urban feedback on extreme precipitation; urbanization signal is often not so prominent with station level data. To investigate this, we select the case study of Mumbai, India and perform a high resolution (1 km) numerical study with Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model for eight extreme rainfall days during 2014-2015. The WRF model is coupled with two different urban schemes, the Single Layer Urban Canopy Model (WRF-SUCM), Multi-Layer Urban Canopy Model (WRF-MUCM). The differences between the WRF-MUCM and WRF-SUCM indicate the importance of the structure and characteristics of urban canopy on modifications in precipitation. The WRF-MUCM simulations resemble the observed distributed rainfall. WRF-MUCM also produces intensified rainfall as compared to the WRF-SUCM and WRF-NoUCM (without UCM). The intensification in rainfall is however prominent at few pockets of urban regions, that is seen in increased spatial variability. We find that the correlation of precipitation across stations within the city falls below statistical significance at a distance greater than 10 km. Urban signature on extreme precipitation will be reflected on station rainfall only when the stations are located inside the urban pockets having intensified precipitation, which needs to be considered in future analysis.

Accounting for urban biogenic fluxes in regional carbon budgets.

PubMed

Hardiman, Brady S; Wang, Jonathan A; Hutyra, Lucy R; Gately, Conor K; Getson, Jackie M; Friedl, Mark A

2017-08-15

Many ecosystem models incorrectly treat urban areas as devoid of vegetation and biogenic carbon (C) fluxes. We sought to improve estimates of urban biomass and biogenic C fluxes using existing, nationally available data products. We characterized biogenic influence on urban C cycling throughout Massachusetts, USA using an ecosystem model that integrates improved representation of urban vegetation, growing conditions associated with urban heat island (UHI), and altered urban phenology. Boston's biomass density is 1/4 that of rural forests, however 87% of Massachusetts' urban landscape is vegetated. Model results suggest that, kilogram-for-kilogram, urban vegetation cycles C twice as fast as rural forests. Urban vegetation releases (R E ) and absorbs (GEE) the equivalent of 11 and 14%, respectively, of anthropogenic emissions in the most urban portions of the state. While urban vegetation in Massachusetts fully sequesters anthropogenic emissions from smaller cities in the region, Boston's UHI reduces annual C storage by >20% such that vegetation offsets only 2% of anthropogenic emissions. Asynchrony between temporal patterns of biogenic and anthropogenic C fluxes further constrains the emissions mitigation potential of urban vegetation. However, neglecting to account for biogenic C fluxes in cities can impair efforts to accurately monitor, report, verify, and reduce anthropogenic emissions. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Development of Gridded Fields of Urban Canopy Parameters for Advanced Urban Meteorological and Air Quality Models

EPA Science Inventory

Urban dispersion and air quality simulation models applied at various horizontal scales require different levels of fidelity for specifying the characteristics of the underlying surfaces. As the modeling scales approach the neighborhood level (~1 km horizontal grid spacing), the...

Agent-based model to rural urban migration analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Silveira, Jaylson J.; Espíndola, Aquino L.; Penna, T. J. P.

2006-05-01

In this paper, we analyze the rural-urban migration phenomenon as it is usually observed in economies which are in the early stages of industrialization. The analysis is conducted by means of a statistical mechanics approach which builds a computational agent-based model. Agents are placed on a lattice and the connections among them are described via an Ising-like model. Simulations on this computational model show some emergent properties that are common in developing economies, such as a transitional dynamics characterized by continuous growth of urban population, followed by the equalization of expected wages between rural and urban sectors (Harris-Todaro equilibrium condition), urban concentration and increasing of per capita income.

Satellite Imagery Data: Dynamic Systems Model for sustainable urban forest in area of Halim Perdana Kusuma, East Jakarta

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sundara, D. M.; Hartono, D. M.; Suganda, E.; Haeruman, JS H.

2018-05-01

East Jakarta icon as a buffer and the lungs of the city is still a big dream of Jakarta. It is a classic problem that there is a struggle for land between current economic interests and sustainable environmental interests for the future. This paper discusses the development of urban forest area of Halim Perdana Kusuma, East Jakarta. The forest area according to regulations of existing city local governments is not enough to support sustainable urban development indicators. Therefore, it requires an extensive mapping of urban forest potential development accurately by utilizing satellite imaging technology. Landsat-TM satellite imagery data can provide a full picture of the potential land width for urban forest area development. The results of this satellite image will then be made into a model of urban forest as one of the indicators of sustainable urban development. This research aims to support sustainable urban development through environmental balance in the form of a green neighborhood revitalization and development of urban forests and to create socio-economic balance. This paper uses a dynamic system model to simulate the conditions of the region against the intervention performed in the potential area for development of urban forests which are derived from urban spatial analysis based on satellite image data, using GIS program as a tool. The result is a model of urban forest area which is integrated with a social and economic function to encourage the development of sustainable cities.

Air quality: from observation to applied studies

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Weber, Christiane H.; Wania, Annett; Hirsch, Jacky; Bruse, Michael

2004-10-01

Air qualities studies in urban areas embrace several directions that are strongly associated with urban complexity. In the last centuries cities evolution implied changes in urbanization trends: urban sprawl has modified the relationship between cities and surroundings settlements. The existence and protection of urban green and open areas is promoted as a mean to improve the quality of life of their citizens and increase the satisfactory level of the inhabitants against pollution and noise adverse effects. This paper outlines the methods and approaches used in the EU research project Benefits of Urban Green Space (BUGS). The main target of BUGS is to assess the role of urban green spaces in alleviating the adverse effects of urbanization trends by developing an integrative methodology, ranging from participatory planning tools to numerical simulation models. The influence of urban structures on atmospheric pollutants distribution is investigated as a multi-scale problem ranging from micro to macro/regional scale. Traditionally, air quality models are applied on a single scale, seldom considering the joint effects of traffic network and urban development together. In BUGS, several numerical models are applied to cope with urban complexity and to provide quantitative and qualitative results. The differing input data requirements for the various models demanded a methodology which ensures a coherent data extraction and application procedure. In this paper, the stepwise procedure used for BUGS is presented after a general presentation of the research project and the models implied. A discussion part will highlight the statements induced by the choices made and a conclusive part bring to the stage some insights for future investigations.

Context-Based Urban Terrain Reconstruction from Uav-Videos for Geoinformation Applications

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bulatov, D.; Solbrig, P.; Gross, H.; Wernerus, P.; Repasi, E.; Heipke, C.

2011-09-01

Urban terrain reconstruction has many applications in areas of civil engineering, urban planning, surveillance and defense research. Therefore the needs of covering ad-hoc demand and performing a close-range urban terrain reconstruction with miniaturized and relatively inexpensive sensor platforms are constantly growing. Using (miniaturized) unmanned aerial vehicles, (M)UAVs, represents one of the most attractive alternatives to conventional large-scale aerial imagery. We cover in this paper a four-step procedure of obtaining georeferenced 3D urban models from video sequences. The four steps of the procedure - orientation, dense reconstruction, urban terrain modeling and geo-referencing - are robust, straight-forward, and nearly fully-automatic. The two last steps - namely, urban terrain modeling from almost-nadir videos and co-registration of models 6ndash; represent the main contribution of this work and will therefore be covered with more detail. The essential substeps of the third step include digital terrain model (DTM) extraction, segregation of buildings from vegetation, as well as instantiation of building and tree models. The last step is subdivided into quasi- intrasensorial registration of Euclidean reconstructions and intersensorial registration with a geo-referenced orthophoto. Finally, we present reconstruction results from a real data-set and outline ideas for future work.

A combined remote sensing and modeling based approach to identify sustainable pathways for urban and peri-urban agriculture in China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wattenbach, M.; Delgado, J. M.; Roessner, S.; Bochow, M.; Güntner, A.; Kropp, J.; Cantu Ros, A. G.; Hattermann, F.; Kolbe, T.; Sodoudi, S.; Cubasch, U. Ulrich; Zeitz, J.; Ross, L.; Böckel, K.; Fang, C.; Bo, L.; Pan, G.

2012-04-01

As the world's biggest economy, China is becoming the biggest consumer of resources globally. Given this trend, the over-proportional fast increase in urbanization presents China with fundamental problems. Among the most urgent ones is the increasing loss of agricultural land as urbanization takes place in the most productive regions along the coast. The latter is being responsible for a shift in agriculture production towards climatically less favorable areas. At the same time, the loss of green areas in and around growing cities is increasing the effect of the urban heat island. The perception of the potential risks related to this phenomenon, in the context of climate change, has led the Shanghai city administration to increase its urban-greening efforts, expanding the per capita area of green from 1m2 in 1990 to 12.5m2 in 2008. In this context, this paper aims at identifying the influence of urban and peri-urban agriculture (UPA) on the sustainability of the urban regions of Shanghai and Nanjing. In particular, it focuses on the effects of UPA on the greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, soil nutrients and water balances, local climate and the structure and functions of the urbanized areas. We propose an interdisciplinary framework combining remote sensing, model simulations and GHG field observations and targeted at identifying "win-win" strategies for sustainable planning pathways showing high potentials for UPA. The framework is based on spatial scenario modeling, automatic classification of urban structure types and on a prototype of a high-quality spatial database consisting of a 3D city model. Dynamic boundary conditions for climate and urban development are provided by state of the art models. These approaches meet the needs of stakeholders and planners in China. A special emphasis is put on interdependencies between small holder farming in the urban and peri-urban zone and climate change adaptation and mitigation strategies focusing on improved management of local water and nutrient cycles. The whole database generated will be structured and made accessible for planners and stakeholders in the form of a 3D city visualization model.

Predicting the Effect of Changing Precipitation Extremes and Land Cover Change on Urban Water Quality

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

SUN, N.; Yearsley, J. R.; Lettenmaier, D. P.

2013-12-01

Recent research shows that precipitation extremes in many of the largest U.S. urban areas have increased over the last 60 years. These changes have important implications for stormwater runoff and water quality, which in urban areas are dominated by the most extreme precipitation events. We assess the potential implications of changes in extreme precipitation and changing land cover in urban and urbanizing watersheds at the regional scale using a combination of hydrology and water quality models. Specifically, we describe the integration of a spatially distributed hydrological model - the Distributed Hydrology Soil Vegetation Model (DHSVM), the urban water quality model in EPA's Storm Water Management Model (SWMM), the semi-Lagrangian stream temperature model RBM10, and dynamical and statistical downscaling methods applied to global climate predictions. Key output water quality parameters include total suspended solids (TSS), toal nitrogen, total phosphorous, fecal coliform bacteria and stream temperature. We have evaluated the performance of the modeling system in the highly urbanized Mercer Creek watershed in the rapidly growing Bellevue urban area in WA, USA. The results suggest that the model is able to (1) produce reasonable streamflow predictions at fine temporal and spatial scales; (2) provide spatially distributed water temperature predictions that mostly agree with observations throughout a complex stream network, and characterize impacts of climate, landscape, near-stream vegetation change on stream temperature at local and regional scales; and (3) capture plausibly the response of water quality constituents to varying magnitude of precipitation events in urban environments. Next we will extend the scope of the study from the Mercer Creek watershed to include the entire Puget Sound Basin, WA, USA.

Evaluation of urban surface parameterizations in the WRF model using measurements during the Texas Air Quality Study 2006 field campaign

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lee, S.-H.; Kim, S.-W.; Angevine, W. M.; Bianco, L.; McKeen, S. A.; Senff, C. J.; Trainer, M.; Tucker, S. C.; Zamora, R. J.

2011-03-01

The performance of different urban surface parameterizations in the WRF (Weather Research and Forecasting) in simulating urban boundary layer (UBL) was investigated using extensive measurements during the Texas Air Quality Study 2006 field campaign. The extensive field measurements collected on surface (meteorological, wind profiler, energy balance flux) sites, a research aircraft, and a research vessel characterized 3-dimensional atmospheric boundary layer structures over the Houston-Galveston Bay area, providing a unique opportunity for the evaluation of the physical parameterizations. The model simulations were performed over the Houston metropolitan area for a summertime period (12-17 August) using a bulk urban parameterization in the Noah land surface model (original LSM), a modified LSM, and a single-layer urban canopy model (UCM). The UCM simulation compared quite well with the observations over the Houston urban areas, reducing the systematic model biases in the original LSM simulation by 1-2 °C in near-surface air temperature and by 200-400 m in UBL height, on average. A more realistic turbulent (sensible and latent heat) energy partitioning contributed to the improvements in the UCM simulation. The original LSM significantly overestimated the sensible heat flux (~200 W m-2) over the urban areas, resulting in warmer and higher UBL. The modified LSM slightly reduced warm and high biases in near-surface air temperature (0.5-1 °C) and UBL height (~100 m) as a result of the effects of urban vegetation. The relatively strong thermal contrast between the Houston area and the water bodies (Galveston Bay and the Gulf of Mexico) in the LSM simulations enhanced the sea/bay breezes, but the model performance in predicting local wind fields was similar among the simulations in terms of statistical evaluations. These results suggest that a proper surface representation (e.g. urban vegetation, surface morphology) and explicit parameterizations of urban physical processes are required for accurate urban atmospheric numerical modeling.

Modelling regional climate change and urban planning scenarios and their impacts on the urban environment in two cities with WRF-ACASA

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Falk, M.; Pyles, R. D.; Marras, S.; Spano, D.; Paw U, K. T.

2011-12-01

The number of urban metabolism studies has increased in recent years, due to the important impact that energy, water and carbon exchange over urban areas have on climate change. Urban modeling is therefore crucial in the future design and management of cities. This study presents the ACASA model coupled to the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF-ARW) mesoscale model to simulate urban fluxes at a horizontal resolution of 200 meters for urban areas of roughly 100 km^2. As part of the European Project "BRIDGE", these regional simulations were used in combination with remotely sensed data to provide constraints on the land surface types and the exchange of carbon and energy fluxes from urban centers. Surface-atmosphere exchanges of mass and energy were simulated using the Advanced Canopy Atmosphere Soil Algorithm (ACASA). ACASA is a multi-layer high-order closure model, recently modified to work over natural, agricultural as well as urban environments. In particular, improvements were made to account for the anthropogenic contribution to heat and carbon production. For two cities four climate change and four urban planning scenarios were simulated: The climate change scenarios include a base scenario (Sc0: 2008 Commit in IPCC), a medium emission scenario (Sc1: IPCC A2), a worst case emission scenario (Sce2: IPCC A1F1) and finally a best case emission scenario (Sce3: IPCC B1). The urban planning scenarios include different development scenarios such as smart growth. The two cities are a high latitude city, Helsinki (Finland) and an historic city, Florence (Italy). Helsinki is characterized by recent, rapid urbanization that requires a substantial amount of energy for heating, while Florence is representative of cities in lower latitudes, with substantial cultural heritage and a comparatively constant architectural footprint over time. In general, simulated fluxes matched the point observations well and showed consistent improvement in the energy partitioning over urban regions. We present comparisons of observed (EC) tower flux observations from the Florence (Ximeniano) site for 1-9 April, 2008 with results from two sets of high-resolution simulations: the first using dynamically-downscaled input/boundary conditions (Model-0) and the second using fully nested WRF-ACASA (Model-1). In each simulation the model physics are the same; only the WRF domain configuration differs. Preliminary results (Figure 1) indicate a degree of parity (and a slight statistical improvement), in the performances of Model-1 vs. that of Model-0 with respect to observed. Figure 1 (below) shows air temperature values from observed and both model estimates. Additional results indicate that care must be taken to configure the WRF domain, as performance appears to be sensitive to model configuration.

Systematic flood modelling to support flood-proof urban design

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bruwier, Martin; Mustafa, Ahmed; Aliaga, Daniel; Archambeau, Pierre; Erpicum, Sébastien; Nishida, Gen; Zhang, Xiaowei; Pirotton, Michel; Teller, Jacques; Dewals, Benjamin

2017-04-01

Urban flood risk is influenced by many factors such as hydro-meteorological drivers, existing drainage systems as well as vulnerability of population and assets. The urban fabric itself has also a complex influence on inundation flows. In this research, we performed a systematic analysis on how various characteristics of urban patterns control inundation flow within the urban area and upstream of it. An urban generator tool was used to generate over 2,250 synthetic urban networks of 1 km2. This tool is based on the procedural modelling presented by Parish and Müller (2001) which was adapted to generate a broader variety of urban networks. Nine input parameters were used to control the urban geometry. Three of them define the average length, orientation and curvature of the streets. Two orthogonal major roads, for which the width constitutes the fourth input parameter, work as constraints to generate the urban network. The width of secondary streets is given by the fifth input parameter. Each parcel generated by the street network based on a parcel mean area parameter can be either a park or a building parcel depending on the park ratio parameter. Three setback parameters constraint the exact location of the building whithin a building parcel. For each of synthetic urban network, detailed two-dimensional inundation maps were computed with a hydraulic model. The computational efficiency was enhanced by means of a porosity model. This enables the use of a coarser computational grid , while preserving information on the detailed geometry of the urban network (Sanders et al. 2008). These porosity parameters reflect not only the void fraction, which influences the storage capacity of the urban area, but also the influence of buildings on flow conveyance (dynamic effects). A sensitivity analysis was performed based on the inundation maps to highlight the respective impact of each input parameter characteristizing the urban networks. The findings of the study pinpoint which properties of urban networks have a major influence on urban inundation flow, enabling better informed flood-proof urban design. References: Parish, Y. I. H., Muller, P. 2001. Procedural modeling of cities. SIGGRAPH, pp. 301—308. Sanders, B.F., Schubert, J.E., Gallegos, H.A., 2008. Integral formulation of shallow-water equations with anisotropic porosity for urban flood modeling. Journal of Hydrology 362, 19-38. Acknowledgements: The research was funded through the ARC grant for Concerted Research Actions, financed by the Wallonia-Brussels Federation.

Urban growth simulation from "first principles".

PubMed

Andersson, Claes; Lindgren, Kristian; Rasmussen, Steen; White, Roger

2002-08-01

General and mathematically transparent models of urban growth have so far suffered from a lack in microscopic realism. Physical models that have been used for this purpose, i.e., diffusion-limited aggregation, dielectric breakdown models, and correlated percolation all have microscopic dynamics for which analogies with urban growth appear stretched. Based on a Markov random field formulation we have developed a model that is capable of reproducing a variety of important characteristic urban morphologies and that has realistic microscopic dynamics. The results presented in this paper are particularly important in relation to "urban sprawl," an important aspect of which is aggressively spreading low-density land uses. This type of growth is increasingly causing environmental, social, and economical problems around the world. The microdynamics of our model, or its "first principles," can be mapped to human decisions and motivations and thus potentially also to policies and regulations. We measure statistical properties of macrostates generated by the urban growth mechanism that we propose, and we compare these to empirical measurements as well as to results from other models. To showcase the open-endedness of the model and to thereby relate our work to applied urban planning we have also included a simulated city consisting of a large number of land use classes in which also topographical data have been used.

A spatial multi-objective optimization model for sustainable urban wastewater system layout planning.

PubMed

Dong, X; Zeng, S; Chen, J

2012-01-01

Design of a sustainable city has changed the traditional centralized urban wastewater system towards a decentralized or clustering one. Note that there is considerable spatial variability of the factors that affect urban drainage performance including urban catchment characteristics. The potential options are numerous for planning the layout of an urban wastewater system, which are associated with different costs and local environmental impacts. There is thus a need to develop an approach to find the optimal spatial layout for collecting, treating, reusing and discharging the municipal wastewater of a city. In this study, a spatial multi-objective optimization model, called Urban wastewateR system Layout model (URL), was developed. It is solved by a genetic algorithm embedding Monte Carlo sampling and a series of graph algorithms. This model was illustrated by a case study in a newly developing urban area in Beijing, China. Five optimized system layouts were recommended to the local municipality for further detailed design.

Integrated Modelling and Performance Analysis of Green Roof Technologies in Urban Environments

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liu, Xi; Mijic, Ana; Maksimovic, Cedo

2014-05-01

As a result of the changing global climate and increase in urbanisation, the behaviour of the urban environment has been significantly altered, causing an increase in both the frequency of extreme weather events, such as flooding and drought, and also the associated costs. Moreover, uncontrolled or inadequately planned urbanisation can exacerbate the damage. The Blue-Green Dream (BGD) project therefore develops a series of components for urban areas that link urban vegetated areas (green infrastructure) with existing urban water (blue) systems, which will enhance the synergy of urban blue and green systems and provide effective, multifunctional BGD solutions to support urban adaptation to future climatic changes. Coupled with new urban water management technologies and engineering, multifunctional benefits can be gained. Some of the technologies associated with BGD solutions include green roofs, swales that might deal with runoff more effectively and urban river restoration that can produce benefits similar to those produced from sustainable urban drainage systems (SUDS). For effective implementation of these technologies, however, appropriate tools and methodologies for designing and modelling BGD solutions are required to be embedded within urban drainage models. Although several software packages are available for modelling urban drainage, the way in which green roofs and other BGD solutions are integrated into these models is not yet fully developed and documented. This study develops a physically based mass and energy balance model to monitor, test and quantitatively evaluate green roof technology for integrated BGD solutions. The assessment of environmental benefits will be limited to three aspects: (1) reduction of the total runoff volume, (2) delay in the initiation of runoff, and (3) reduction of building energy consumption, rather than water quality, visual, social or economic impacts. This physically based model represents water and heat dynamics in a layered soil profile covered with vegetation which can be used to simulate the physical behaviour of different green roof systems in response to rainfall under various climatic conditions. Because it is a physically based model, this model could be generalised to other atmosphere-plant-soil systems. The validity of this mass and energy balance approach will be demonstrated by comparing its outcomes with observations from a green roof experimental site in London, UK.

Use of Models in Urban Transportation Planning

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

1973-04-01

The report describes the most commonly used models in urban transportation planning. A background on urban transportation planning is given including changes in planning objectives and the effects of Federal legislation. General concepts and problems...

Measuring the effects of socioeconomic factors on mental health among migrants in urban China: a multiple indicators multiple causes model.

PubMed

Guan, Ming

2017-01-01

Since 1978, rural-urban migrants mainly contribute Chinese urbanization. The purpose of this paper is to examine the effects of socioeconomic factors on mental health of them. Their mental health was measured by 12-item general health questionnaire (GHQ-12). The study sample comprised 5925 migrants obtained from the 2009 rural-to-urban migrants survey (RUMiC). The relationships among the instruments were assessed by the correlation analysis. The one-factor (overall items), two-factor (positive vs. negative items), and model conducted by principal component analysis were tested in the confirmatory factor analysis (CFA). On the basis of three CFA models, the three multiple indicators multiple causes (MIMIC) models with age, gender, marriage, ethnicity, and employment were constructed to investigate the concurrent associations between socioeconomic factors and GHQ-12. Of the sample, only 1.94% were of ethnic origin and mean age was 31.63 (SD = ±10.43) years. The one-factor, two-factor, and three-factor structure (i.e. semi-positive/negative/independent usefulness) had good model fits in the CFA analysis and gave order (i.e. 2 factor>3 factor>1 factor), which suggests that the three models can be used to assess psychological symptoms of migrants in urban China. All MIMIC models had acceptable fit and gave order (i.e. one-dimensional model>two-dimensional model>three-dimensional model). There were weak associations of socioeconomic factors with mental health among migrants in urban China. Policy discussion suggested that improvement of socioeconomic status of rural-urban migrants and mental health systems in urban China should be highlighted and strengthened.

Applicability of models to estimate traffic noise for urban roads.

PubMed

Melo, Ricardo A; Pimentel, Roberto L; Lacerda, Diego M; Silva, Wekisley M

2015-01-01

Traffic noise is a highly relevant environmental impact in cities. Models to estimate traffic noise, in turn, can be useful tools to guide mitigation measures. In this paper, the applicability of models to estimate noise levels produced by a continuous flow of vehicles on urban roads is investigated. The aim is to identify which models are more appropriate to estimate traffic noise in urban areas since several models available were conceived to estimate noise from highway traffic. First, measurements of traffic noise, vehicle count and speed were carried out in five arterial urban roads of a brazilian city. Together with geometric measurements of width of lanes and distance from noise meter to lanes, these data were input in several models to estimate traffic noise. The predicted noise levels were then compared to the respective measured counterparts for each road investigated. In addition, a chart showing mean differences in noise between estimations and measurements is presented, to evaluate the overall performance of the models. Measured Leq values varied from 69 to 79 dB(A) for traffic flows varying from 1618 to 5220 vehicles/h. Mean noise level differences between estimations and measurements for all urban roads investigated ranged from -3.5 to 5.5 dB(A). According to the results, deficiencies of some models are discussed while other models are identified as applicable to noise estimations on urban roads in a condition of continuous flow. Key issues to apply such models to urban roads are highlighted.

Integration of aerial oblique imagery and terrestrial imagery for optimized 3D modeling in urban areas

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wu, Bo; Xie, Linfu; Hu, Han; Zhu, Qing; Yau, Eric

2018-05-01

Photorealistic three-dimensional (3D) models are fundamental to the spatial data infrastructure of a digital city, and have numerous potential applications in areas such as urban planning, urban management, urban monitoring, and urban environmental studies. Recent developments in aerial oblique photogrammetry based on aircraft or unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) offer promising techniques for 3D modeling. However, 3D models generated from aerial oblique imagery in urban areas with densely distributed high-rise buildings may show geometric defects and blurred textures, especially on building façades, due to problems such as occlusion and large camera tilt angles. Meanwhile, mobile mapping systems (MMSs) can capture terrestrial images of close-range objects from a complementary view on the ground at a high level of detail, but do not offer full coverage. The integration of aerial oblique imagery with terrestrial imagery offers promising opportunities to optimize 3D modeling in urban areas. This paper presents a novel method of integrating these two image types through automatic feature matching and combined bundle adjustment between them, and based on the integrated results to optimize the geometry and texture of the 3D models generated from aerial oblique imagery. Experimental analyses were conducted on two datasets of aerial and terrestrial images collected in Dortmund, Germany and in Hong Kong. The results indicate that the proposed approach effectively integrates images from the two platforms and thereby improves 3D modeling in urban areas.

A tool for urban soundscape evaluation applying Support Vector Machines for developing a soundscape classification model.

PubMed

Torija, Antonio J; Ruiz, Diego P; Ramos-Ridao, Angel F

2014-06-01

To ensure appropriate soundscape management in urban environments, the urban-planning authorities need a range of tools that enable such a task to be performed. An essential step during the management of urban areas from a sound standpoint should be the evaluation of the soundscape in such an area. In this sense, it has been widely acknowledged that a subjective and acoustical categorization of a soundscape is the first step to evaluate it, providing a basis for designing or adapting it to match people's expectations as well. In this sense, this work proposes a model for automatic classification of urban soundscapes. This model is intended for the automatic classification of urban soundscapes based on underlying acoustical and perceptual criteria. Thus, this classification model is proposed to be used as a tool for a comprehensive urban soundscape evaluation. Because of the great complexity associated with the problem, two machine learning techniques, Support Vector Machines (SVM) and Support Vector Machines trained with Sequential Minimal Optimization (SMO), are implemented in developing model classification. The results indicate that the SMO model outperforms the SVM model in the specific task of soundscape classification. With the implementation of the SMO algorithm, the classification model achieves an outstanding performance (91.3% of instances correctly classified). © 2013 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Projecting land-use and land cover change in a subtropical urban watershed

Treesearch

John J. Lagrosa IV; Wayne C. Zipperer; Michael G. Andreu

2018-01-01

Urban landscapes are heterogeneous mosaics that develop via significant land-use and land cover (LULC) change. Current LULC models project future landscape patterns, but generally avoid urban landscapes due to heterogeneity. To project LULC change for an urban landscape, we parameterize an established LULC model (Dyna-CLUE) under baseline conditions (continued current...

Assessing the response of the Pamlico Sound, North Carolina, USA to human and climatic disturbances: Management implications

USGS Publications Warehouse

Paerl, H.W.; Peierls, B.L.; Hall, N. S.; Joyner, A. R.; Christian, R.R.; Bales, Jerad D.; Riggs, S.R.

2010-01-01

The Pamlico Sound (PS) with its sub-estuaries is the largest lagoonal ecosystem in the United States. It exhibits periodically strong salinity stratification and an average freshwater residence time of 1 year for the sound proper. This relatively long residence time promotes effective use and cycling of nutrients, allowing the system to support high rates of primary and secondary production, and serve as a vitally important fisheries nursery. This hydrologic characteristic also makes the system highly sensitive to nutrient over-enrichment and eutrophication. The PS is experiencing ecological change in response to increasing human activity and climatic perturbations. Human impacts include a rise in nutrient, sediment, and other pollutant loads that accompany urbanization and agricultural and industrial growth in its watersheds and airsheds. Since the mid-1990s, the PS has witnessed a sudden rise in tropical storm and hurricane impacts, with eight hurricanes and four tropical storms having made landfall in the PS watershed during the 1996 to 2007 period. Each of these storms had unique hydrologic, nutrient, and other pollutant loading effects. In addition, since the early 2000s, the region has experienced record droughts, which are continuing. Variable freshwater discharges from storms and droughts have caused large oscillations in nutrient enrichment, reflected ultimately in differential phytoplankton production, biomass, and community compositional responses. Floodwaters from the two wettest hurricanes, Fran (1996) and Floyd (1999), and from Tropical Storm Ernesto (2006) exerted long-term (months) effects on hydrology, nutrient loads, and algal production. Windy but relatively dry hurricanes, like Irene (1999) and Isabel (2003), caused strong vertical mixing, storm surges, but relatively minor changes in river flow, flushing, and nutrient loads. These contrasting effects are accompanied by biogeochemical (hypoxia, nutrient cycling) and habitat alterations, and associated food web disturbances. Each storm type influenced algal growth and compositional dynamics; however, their respective ecological impacts differed substantially. Changes in hydrologic and wind forcing resulting from changes in frequency and intensity of storms and droughts strongly influence water and habitat quality. These changes must be integrated with nutrient loading/dilution effects when assessing and predicting ecological responses to nutrient and hydrologic variability on this and other large lagoonal ecosystems.

The water balance of the urban Salt Lake Valley: a multiple-box model validated by observations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Stwertka, C.; Strong, C.

2012-12-01

A main focus of the recently awarded National Science Foundation (NSF) EPSCoR Track-1 research project "innovative Urban Transitions and Arid-region Hydro-sustainability (iUTAH)" is to quantify the primary components of the water balance for the Wasatch region, and to evaluate their sensitivity to climate change and projected urban development. Building on the multiple-box model that we developed and validated for carbon dioxide (Strong et al 2011), mass balance equations for water in the atmosphere and surface are incorporated into the modeling framework. The model is used to determine how surface fluxes, ground-water transport, biological fluxes, and meteorological processes regulate water cycling within and around the urban Salt Lake Valley. The model is used to evaluate the hypotheses that increased water demand associated with urban growth in Salt Lake Valley will (1) elevate sensitivity to projected climate variability and (2) motivate more attentive management of urban water use and evaporative fluxes.

A comprehensive approach for the simulation of the Urban Heat Island effect with the WRF/SLUCM modeling system: The case of Athens (Greece)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Giannaros, Christos; Nenes, Athanasios; Giannaros, Theodore M.; Kourtidis, Konstantinos; Melas, Dimitrios

2018-03-01

This study presents a comprehensive modeling approach for simulating the spatiotemporal distribution of urban air temperatures with a modeling system that includes the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model and the Single-Layer Urban Canopy Model (SLUCM) with a modified treatment of the impervious surface temperature. The model was applied to simulate a 3-day summer heat wave event over the city of Athens, Greece. The simulation, using default SLUCM parameters, is capable of capturing the observed diurnal variation of urban temperatures and the Urban Heat Island (UHI) in the greater Athens Area (GAA), albeit with systematic biases that are prominent during nighttime hours. These biases are particularly evident over low-intensity residential areas, and they are associated with the surface and urban canopy properties representing the urban environment. A series of sensitivity simulations unravels the importance of the sub-grid urban fraction parameter, surface albedo, and street canyon geometry in the overall causation and development of the UHI effect. The sensitivities are then used to determine optimal values of the street canyon geometry, which reproduces the observed temperatures throughout the simulation domain. The optimal parameters, apart from considerably improving model performance (reductions in mean temperature bias from 0.30 °C to 1.58 °C), are also consistent with actual city building characteristics - which gives confidence that the model set-up is robust, and can be used to study the UHI in the GAA in the anticipated warmer conditions in the future.

A Practical Review of Integrated Urban Water Models: Applications as Decision Support Tools and Beyond

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mosleh, L.; Negahban-Azar, M.

2017-12-01

The integrated urban water management has become a necessity due to the high rate of urbanization, water scarcity, and climate variability. Climate and demographic changes, shifting the social attitude toward the water usage, and insufficiencies in system resilience increase the pressure on the water resources. Alongside with the water management, modeling urban water systems have progressed from traditional view to comprise alternatives such as decentralized water and wastewater systems, fit-for-purpose practice, graywater/rainwater reuse, and green infrastructure. While there are review papers available focusing on the technical part of the models, they seem to be more beneficial for model developers. Some of the models analyze a number of scenarios considering factors such as climate change and demography and their future impacts. However, others only focus on quality and quantity of water in a supply/demand approach. For example, optimizing the size of water or waste water store, characterizing the supply and quantity of urban stormwater and waste water, and link source of water to demand. A detailed and practical comparison of such models has become a necessity for the practitioner and policy makers. This research compares more than 7 most commonly used integrated urban water cycle models and critically reviews their capabilities, input requirements, output and their applications. The output of such detailed comparison will help the policy makers for the decision process in the built environment to compare and choose the best models that meet their goals. The results of this research show that we need a transition from developing/using integrated water cycle models to integrated system models which incorporate urban water infrastructures and ecological and economic factors. Such models can help decision makers to reflect other important criteria but with the focus on urban water management. The research also showed that there is a need in exploring sustainability, comprising water energy-nexus, and considering ecosystem services in the models. In addition, socio-economic factors such as public acceptance can be added to such models. Finally, the reliability and resilience of urban water management scenarios should be addressed under different uncertainties such as climate variability.

Projected impact of urbanization on cardiovascular disease in China.

PubMed

Chan, Faye; Adamo, Susana; Coxson, Pamela; Goldman, Lee; Gu, Dongfeng; Zhao, Dong; Chen, Chung-Shiuan; He, Jiang; Mara, Valentina; Moran, Andrew

2012-10-01

The Coronary Heart Disease (CHD) Policy Model-China, a national scale cardiovascular disease computer simulation model, was used to project future impact of urbanization. Populations and cardiovascular disease incidence rates were stratified into four submodels: North-Urban, South-Urban, North-Rural, and South-Rural. 2010 was the base year, and high and low urbanization rate scenarios were used to project 2030 populations. Rural-to-urban migration, population growth, and aging were projected to more than double cardiovascular disease events in urban areas and increase events by 27.0-45.6% in rural areas. Urbanization is estimated to raise age-standardized coronary heart disease incidence by 73-81 per 100,000 and stroke incidence only slightly. Rural-to-urban migration will likely be a major demographic driver of the cardiovascular disease epidemic in China.

Enhanced Framework for Modeling Urban Truck Trips

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

1998-09-16

Recently there has been renewed interest in modeling urban truck movements. : This is potentially important for improving traffic forecasts as well as for a : host of other applications including ITS. There are unique aspects of urban : freight movem...

PALM-USM v1.0: A new urban surface model integrated into the PALM large-eddy simulation model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Resler, Jaroslav; Krč, Pavel; Belda, Michal; Juruš, Pavel; Benešová, Nina; Lopata, Jan; Vlček, Ondřej; Damašková, Daša; Eben, Kryštof; Derbek, Přemysl; Maronga, Björn; Kanani-Sühring, Farah

2017-10-01

Urban areas are an important part of the climate system and many aspects of urban climate have direct effects on human health and living conditions. This implies that reliable tools for local urban climate studies supporting sustainable urban planning are needed. However, a realistic implementation of urban canopy processes still poses a serious challenge for weather and climate modelling for the current generation of numerical models. To address this demand, a new urban surface model (USM), describing the surface energy processes for urban environments, was developed and integrated as a module into the PALM large-eddy simulation model. The development of the presented first version of the USM originated from modelling the urban heat island during summer heat wave episodes and thus implements primarily processes important in such conditions. The USM contains a multi-reflection radiation model for shortwave and longwave radiation with an integrated model of absorption of radiation by resolved plant canopy (i.e. trees, shrubs). Furthermore, it consists of an energy balance solver for horizontal and vertical impervious surfaces, and thermal diffusion in ground, wall, and roof materials, and it includes a simple model for the consideration of anthropogenic heat sources. The USM was parallelized using the standard Message Passing Interface and performance testing demonstrates that the computational costs of the USM are reasonable on typical clusters for the tested configurations. The module was fully integrated into PALM and is available via its online repository under the GNU General Public License (GPL). The USM was tested on a summer heat-wave episode for a selected Prague crossroads. The general representation of the urban boundary layer and patterns of surface temperatures of various surface types (walls, pavement) are in good agreement with in situ observations made in Prague. Additional simulations were performed in order to assess the sensitivity of the results to uncertainties in the material parameters, the domain size, and the general effect of the USM itself. The first version of the USM is limited to the processes most relevant to the study of summer heat waves and serves as a basis for ongoing development which will address additional processes of the urban environment and lead to improvements to extend the utilization of the USM to other environments and conditions.

A spatially distributed model for assessment of the effects of changing land use and climate on urban stream quality: Development of a Spatially Distributed Urban Water Quality Model

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Sun, Ning; Yearsley, John; Baptiste, Marisa

While the effects of land use change in urban areas have been widely examined, the combined effects of climate and land use change on the quality of urban and urbanizing streams have received much less attention. We describe a modeling framework that is applicable to the evaluation of potential changes in urban water quality and associated hydrologic changes in response to ongoing climate and landscape alteration. The grid-based spatially distributed model, DHSVM-WQ, is an outgrowth of the Distributed Hydrology-Soil-Vegetation Model (DHSVM) that incorporates modules for assessing hydrology and water quality in urbanized watersheds at a high spatial and temporal resolution.more » DHSVM-WQ simulates surface runoff quality and in-stream processes that control the transport of nonpoint-source (NPS) pollutants into urban streams. We configure DHSVM-WQ for three partially urbanized catchments in the Puget Sound region to evaluate the water quality responses to current conditions and projected changes in climate and/or land use over the next century. Here we focus on total suspended solids (TSS) and total phosphorus (TP) from nonpoint sources (runoff), as well as stream temperature. The projection of future land use is characterized by a combination of densification in existing urban or partially urban areas, and expansion of the urban footprint. The climate change scenarios consist of individual and concurrent changes in temperature and precipitation. Future precipitation is projected to increase in winter and decrease in summer, while future temperature is projected to increase throughout the year. Our results show that urbanization has a much greater effect than climate change on both the magnitude and seasonal variability of streamflow, TSS and TP loads largely due to substantially increased streamflow, and particularly winter flow peaks. Water temperature is more sensitive to climate warming scenarios than to urbanization and precipitation changes. Future urbanization and climate change together are predicted to significantly increase annual mean streamflow (up to 55%), water temperature (up to 1.9 ºC), TSS load (up to 182%), and TP load (up to 74%).« less

Can green roofs reduce urban heat stress in vulnerable urban communities: A coupled atmospheric and social modeling approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sharma, A.; Woodruff, S.; Budhathoki, M.; Hamlet, A. F.; Fernando, H. J. S.; Chen, F.

2017-12-01

Urban areas provide organized, engineered, sociological and economical infrastructure designed to provide a high quality of life, but the implementation and management of urban infrastructure has been a continued challenge. Increasing urbanization, warming climate, as well as anthropogenic heat emissions that accompany urban development generates "stress". This rapidly increasing `urban stress' affects the sustainability of cities, making populations more vulnerable to extreme hazards, such as heat. Cities are beginning to extensively use green roofs as a potential urban heat mitigation strategy. This study explores the potential of green roofs to reduce summertime temperatures in the most vulnerable neighborhoods of the Chicago metropolitan area by combining social vulnerability indices (a function of exposure, sensitivity and adaptive capacity), and temperatures from mesoscale model. Numerical simulations using urbanized version the Advanced Research Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model were performed to measure rooftop temperatures, a representative variable for exposure in this study. The WRF simulations were dynamically coupled with a green roof algorithm as a part of urban parameterization within WRF. Specifically, the study examines roof surface temperature with changing green roof fractions and how would they help reduce exposure to heat stress for vulnerable urban communities. This study shows an example of applied research that can directly benefit urban communities and be used by urban planners to evaluate mitigation strategies.

Impact of urban canopy models and external parameters on the modelled urban energy balance in a tropical city

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Demuzere, Matthias; Harshan, Suraj; Järvi, Leena; Roth, Matthias; Betham Grimmond, Christine Susan; Masson, Valéry; Oleson, Keith; Velasco Saldana, Hector Erik; Wouters, Hendrik

2017-04-01

This paper provides the first comparative evaluation of four urban land surface models for a tropical residential neighbourhood in Singapore. The simulations are performed offline, for an 11-month period, using the bulk scheme TERRA_URB and three models of intermediate complexity (CLM, SURFEX and SUEWS). In addition, information from three different parameter lists are added to quantify the impact (interaction) of (between) external parameter settings and model formulations on the modelled urban energy balance components. Overall, the models' performance using the reference parameters aligns well with previous findings for mid- and high-latitude sites against (for) which the models are generally optimised (evaluated). The various combinations of models and different parameter values suggest that error statistics tend to be more dominated by the choice of the latter than the choice of model. Stratifying the observation period into dry / wet periods and hours since selected precipitation events reveals that the models' skill generally deteriorates during dry periods while e.g. CLM/SURFEX has a positive bias in the latent heat flux directly after a precipitation event. It is shown that the latter is due to simple representation of water intercepted on the impervious surfaces. In addition, the positive bias in modelled outgoing longwave radiation is attributed to neglecting the interactions between water vapor and radiation between the surface and the tower sensor. These findings suggest that future developments in urban climate research should continue the integration of more physically-based processes in urban canopy models, ensure the consistency between the observed and modelled atmospheric properties and focus on the correct representation of urban morphology and thermal and radiative characteristics.

Bayesian methods to estimate urban growth potential

USGS Publications Warehouse

Smith, Jordan W.; Smart, Lindsey S.; Dorning, Monica; Dupéy, Lauren Nicole; Méley, Andréanne; Meentemeyer, Ross K.

2017-01-01

Urban growth often influences the production of ecosystem services. The impacts of urbanization on landscapes can subsequently affect landowners’ perceptions, values and decisions regarding their land. Within land-use and land-change research, very few models of dynamic landscape-scale processes like urbanization incorporate empirically-grounded landowner decision-making processes. Very little attention has focused on the heterogeneous decision-making processes that aggregate to influence broader-scale patterns of urbanization. We examine the land-use tradeoffs faced by individual landowners in one of the United States’ most rapidly urbanizing regions − the urban area surrounding Charlotte, North Carolina. We focus on the land-use decisions of non-industrial private forest owners located across the region’s development gradient. A discrete choice experiment is used to determine the critical factors influencing individual forest owners’ intent to sell their undeveloped properties across a series of experimentally varied scenarios of urban growth. Data are analyzed using a hierarchical Bayesian approach. The estimates derived from the survey data are used to modify a spatially-explicit trend-based urban development potential model, derived from remotely-sensed imagery and observed changes in the region’s socioeconomic and infrastructural characteristics between 2000 and 2011. This modeling approach combines the theoretical underpinnings of behavioral economics with spatiotemporal data describing a region’s historical development patterns. By integrating empirical social preference data into spatially-explicit urban growth models, we begin to more realistically capture processes as well as patterns that drive the location, magnitude and rates of urban growth.

An Investigation on the Sensitivity of the Parameters of Urban Flood Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

M, A. B.; Lohani, B.; Jain, A.

2015-12-01

Global climatic change has triggered weather patterns which lead to heavy and sudden rainfall in different parts of world. The impact of heavy rainfall is severe especially on urban areas in the form of urban flooding. In order to understand the effect of heavy rainfall induced flooding, it is necessary to model the entire flooding scenario more accurately, which is now becoming possible with the availability of high resolution airborne LiDAR data and other real time observations. However, there is not much understanding on the optimal use of these data and on the effect of other parameters on the performance of the flood model. This study aims at developing understanding on these issues. In view of the above discussion, the aim of this study is to (i) understand that how the use of high resolution LiDAR data improves the performance of urban flood model, and (ii) understand the sensitivity of various hydrological parameters on urban flood modelling. In this study, modelling of flooding in urban areas due to heavy rainfall is carried out considering Indian Institute of Technology (IIT) Kanpur, India as the study site. The existing model MIKE FLOOD, which is accepted by Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA), is used along with the high resolution airborne LiDAR data. Once the model is setup it is made to run by changing the parameters such as resolution of Digital Surface Model (DSM), manning's roughness, initial losses, catchment description, concentration time, runoff reduction factor. In order to realize this, the results obtained from the model are compared with the field observations. The parametric study carried out in this work demonstrates that the selection of catchment description plays a very important role in urban flood modelling. Results also show the significant impact of resolution of DSM, initial losses and concentration time on urban flood model. This study will help in understanding the effect of various parameters that should be part of a flood model for its accurate performance.

Modeling ozone uptake by urban and peri-urban forest: a case study in the Metropolitan City of Rome.

PubMed

Fusaro, Lina; Mereu, Simone; Salvatori, Elisabetta; Agliari, Elena; Fares, Silvano; Manes, Fausto

2018-03-01

Urban and peri-urban forests are green infrastructures (GI) that play a substantial role in delivering ecosystem services such as the amelioration of air quality by the removal of air pollutants, among which is ozone (O 3 ), which is the most harmful pollutant in Mediterranean metropolitan areas. Models may provide a reliable estimate of gas exchanges between vegetation and atmosphere and are thus a powerful tool to quantify and compare O 3 removal in different contexts. The present study modeled the O 3 stomatal uptake at canopy level of an urban and a peri-urban forest in the Metropolitan City of Rome in two different years. Results show different rates of O 3 fluxes between the two forests, due to different exposure to the pollutant, management practice effects on forest structure and functionality, and environmental conditions, namely, different stressors affecting the gas exchange rates of the two GIs. The periodic components of the time series calculated by means of the spectral analysis show that seasonal variation of modeled canopy transpiration is driven by precipitation in peri-urban forests, whereas in the urban forest seasonal variations are driven by vapor pressure deficit of ambient air. Moreover, in the urban forest high water availability during summer months, owing to irrigation practice, leads to an increase in O 3 uptake, thus suggesting that irrigation may enhance air phytoremediation in urban areas.

Simulations of the Montréal urban heat island

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Roberge, François; Sushama, Laxmi; Fanta, Gemechu

2017-04-01

The current population of Montreal is around 3.8 million and this number is projected to go up in the coming years to decades, which will lead to vast expansion of urban areas. It is well known that urban morphology impacts weather and climate, and therefore should be taken into consideration in urban planning. This is particularly important in the context of a changing climate, as the intensity and frequency of temperature extremes such as hot spells are projected to increase in future climate, and Urban Heat Island (UHI) can potentially raise already stressful temperatures during such events, which can have significant effects on human health and energy consumption. High-resolution regional climate model simulations can be utilized to understand better urban-weather/climate interactions in current and future climates, particularly the spatio-temporal characteristics of the Urban Heat Island and its impact on other weather/climate characteristics such as urban flows, precipitation etc. This paper will focus on two high-resolution (250 m) simulations performed with (1) the Canadian Land Surface Scheme (CLASS) and (2) CLASS and TEB (Town Energy Balance) model; TEB is a single layer urban canopy model and is used to model the urban fractions. The two simulations are performed over a domain covering Montreal for the 1960-2015 period, driven by atmospheric forcing data coming from a high-resolution Canadian Regional Climate Model (CRCM5) simulation, driven by ERA-Interim. The two simulations are compared to assess the impact of urban regions on selected surface fields and the simulation with both CLASS and TEB is then used to study the spatio-temporal characteristics of the UHI over the study domain. Some preliminary results from a coupled simulation, i.e. CRCM5+CLASS+TEB, for selected years, including extreme warm years, will also be presented.

A Monte-Carlo Bayesian framework for urban rainfall error modelling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ochoa Rodriguez, Susana; Wang, Li-Pen; Willems, Patrick; Onof, Christian

2016-04-01

Rainfall estimates of the highest possible accuracy and resolution are required for urban hydrological applications, given the small size and fast response which characterise urban catchments. While significant progress has been made in recent years towards meeting rainfall input requirements for urban hydrology -including increasing use of high spatial resolution radar rainfall estimates in combination with point rain gauge records- rainfall estimates will never be perfect and the true rainfall field is, by definition, unknown [1]. Quantifying the residual errors in rainfall estimates is crucial in order to understand their reliability, as well as the impact that their uncertainty may have in subsequent runoff estimates. The quantification of errors in rainfall estimates has been an active topic of research for decades. However, existing rainfall error models have several shortcomings, including the fact that they are limited to describing errors associated to a single data source (i.e. errors associated to rain gauge measurements or radar QPEs alone) and to a single representative error source (e.g. radar-rain gauge differences, spatial temporal resolution). Moreover, rainfall error models have been mostly developed for and tested at large scales. Studies at urban scales are mostly limited to analyses of propagation of errors in rain gauge records-only through urban drainage models and to tests of model sensitivity to uncertainty arising from unmeasured rainfall variability. Only few radar rainfall error models -originally developed for large scales- have been tested at urban scales [2] and have been shown to fail to well capture small-scale storm dynamics, including storm peaks, which are of utmost important for urban runoff simulations. In this work a Monte-Carlo Bayesian framework for rainfall error modelling at urban scales is introduced, which explicitly accounts for relevant errors (arising from insufficient accuracy and/or resolution) in multiple data sources (in this case radar and rain gauge estimates typically available at present), while at the same time enabling dynamic combination of these data sources (thus not only quantifying uncertainty, but also reducing it). This model generates an ensemble of merged rainfall estimates, which can then be used as input to urban drainage models in order to examine how uncertainties in rainfall estimates propagate to urban runoff estimates. The proposed model is tested using as case study a detailed rainfall and flow dataset, and a carefully verified urban drainage model of a small (~9 km2) pilot catchment in North-East London. The model has shown to well characterise residual errors in rainfall data at urban scales (which remain after the merging), leading to improved runoff estimates. In fact, the majority of measured flow peaks are bounded within the uncertainty area produced by the runoff ensembles generated with the ensemble rainfall inputs. REFERENCES: [1] Ciach, G. J. & Krajewski, W. F. (1999). On the estimation of radar rainfall error variance. Advances in Water Resources, 22 (6), 585-595. [2] Rico-Ramirez, M. A., Liguori, S. & Schellart, A. N. A. (2015). Quantifying radar-rainfall uncertainties in urban drainage flow modelling. Journal of Hydrology, 528, 17-28.

The model SIRANE for atmospheric urban pollutant dispersion; part I, presentation of the model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Soulhac, Lionel; Salizzoni, Pietro; Cierco, F.-X.; Perkins, Richard

2011-12-01

In order to control and manage urban air quality, public authorities require an integrated approach that incorporates direct measurements and modelling of mean pollutant concentrations. These have to be performed by means of operational modelling tools, that simulate the transport of pollutants within and above the urban canopy over a large number of streets. The operational models must be able to assess rapidly a large variety of situations and with limited computing resources. SIRANE is an operational urban dispersion model based on a simplified description of the urban geometry that adopts parametric relations for the pollutant transfer phenomena within and out of the urban canopy. The streets in a city district are modelled as a network of connected street segments. The flow within each street is driven by the component of the external wind parallel to the street, and the pollutant is assumed to be uniformly mixed within the street. The model contains three main mechanisms for transport in and out of a street: advection along the street axis, diffusion across the interface between the street and the overlying air flow and exchanges with other streets at street intersections. The dispersion of pollutants advected or diffused out of the streets is taken into account using a Gaussian plume model, with the standard deviations σ y and σ z parameterised by the similarity theory. The input data for the final model are the urban geometry, the meteorological parameters, the background concentration of pollutants advected into the model domain by the wind and the emissions within each street in the network.

Modeling and predicting urban growth pattern of the Tokyo metropolitan area based on cellular automata

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhao, Yaolong; Zhao, Junsan; Murayama, Yuji

2008-10-01

The period of high economic growth in Japan which began in the latter half of the 1950s led to a massive migration of population from rural regions to the Tokyo metropolitan area. This phenomenon brought about rapid urban growth and urban structure changes in this area. Purpose of this study is to establish a constrained CA (Cellular Automata) model with GIS (Geographical Information Systems) to simulate urban growth pattern in the Tokyo metropolitan area towards predicting urban form and landscape for the near future. Urban land-use is classified into multi-categories for interpreting the effect of interaction among land-use categories in the spatial process of urban growth. Driving factors of urban growth pattern, such as land condition, railway network, land-use zoning, random perturbation, and neighborhood interaction and so forth, are explored and integrated into this model. These driving factors are calibrated based on exploratory spatial data analysis (ESDA), spatial statistics, logistic regression, and "trial and error" approach. The simulation is assessed at both macro and micro classification levels in three ways: visual approach; fractal dimension; and spatial metrics. Results indicate that this model provides an effective prototype to simulate and predict urban growth pattern of the Tokyo metropolitan area.

Integrating GIS, cellular automata, and genetic algorithm in urban spatial optimization: a case study of Lanzhou

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Xu, Xibao; Zhang, Jianming; Zhou, Xiaojian

2006-10-01

This paper presents a model integrating GIS, cellular automata (CA) and genetic algorithm (GA) in urban spatial optimization. The model involves three objectives of the maximization of land-use efficiency, the maximization of urban spatial harmony and appropriate proportion of each land-use type. CA submodel is designed with standard Moore neighbor and three transition rules to maximize the land-use efficiency and urban spatial harmony, according to the land-use suitability and spatial harmony index. GA submodel is designed with four constraints and seven steps for the maximization of urban spatial harmony and appropriate proportion of each land-use type, including encoding, initializing, calculating fitness, selection, crossover, mutation and elitism. GIS is used to prepare for the input data sets for the model and perform spatial analysis on the results, while CA and GA are integrated to optimize urban spatial structure, programmed with Matlab 7 and coupled with GIS loosely. Lanzhou, a typical valley-basin city with fast urban development, is chosen as the case study. At the end, a detail analysis and evaluation of the spatial optimization with the model are made, and it proves to be a powerful tool in optimizing urban spatial structure and make supplement for urban planning and policy-makers.

Modeling the Warming Impact of Urban Land Expansion on Hot Weather Using the Weather Research and Forecasting Model: A Case Study of Beijing, China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liu, Xiaojuan; Tian, Guangjin; Feng, Jinming; Ma, Bingran; Wang, Jun; Kong, Lingqiang

2018-06-01

The impacts of three periods of urban land expansion during 1990-2010 on near-surface air temperature in summer in Beijing were simulated in this study, and then the interrelation between heat waves and urban warming was assessed. We ran the sensitivity tests using the mesoscaleWeather Research and Forecasting model coupled with a single urban canopy model, as well as high-resolution land cover data. The warming area expanded approximately at the same scale as the urban land expansion. The average regional warming induced by urban expansion increased but the warming speed declined slightly during 2000-2010. The smallest warming occurred at noon and then increased gradually in the afternoon before peaking at around 2000 LST—the time of sunset. In the daytime, urban warming was primarily caused by the decrease in latent heat flux at the urban surface. Urbanization led to more ground heat flux during the day and then more release at night, which resulted in nocturnal warming. Urban warming at night was higher than that in the day, although the nighttime increment in sensible heat flux was smaller. This was because the shallower planetary boundary layer at night reduced the release efficiency of near-surface heat. The simulated results also suggested that heat waves or high temperature weather enhanced urban warming intensity at night. Heat waves caused more heat to be stored in the surface during the day, greater heat released at night, and thus higher nighttime warming. Our results demonstrate a positive feedback effect between urban warming and heat waves in urban areas.

A High Resolution Land Cover Data Product to Remove Urban Density Over-Estimation Bias for Coupled Urban-Vegetation-Atmosphere Interaction Studies

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shaffer, S. R.

2017-12-01

Coupled land-atmosphere interactions in urban settings modeled with the Weather Research and Forecasting model (WRF) derive urban land cover from 30-meter resolution National Land Cover Database (NLCD) products. However, within urban areas, the categorical NLCD lose information of non-urban classifications whenever the impervious cover within a grid cell is above 0%, and the current method to determine urban area over estimates the actual area, leading to a bias of urban contribution. To address this bias of urban contribution an investigation is conducted by employing a 1-meter resolution land cover data product derived from the National Agricultural Imagery Program (NAIP) dataset. Scenes during 2010 for the Central Arizona Phoenix Long Term Ecological Research (CAP-LTER) study area, roughly a 120 km x 100 km area containing metropolitan Phoenix, are adapted for use within WRF to determine the areal fraction and urban fraction of each WRF urban class. A method is shown for converting these NAIP data into classes corresponding to NLCD urban classes, and is evaluated in comparison with current WRF implementation using NLCD. Results are shown for comparisons of land cover products at the level of input data and aggregated to model resolution (1 km). The sensitivity of WRF short-term summertime pre-monsoon predictions within metropolitan Phoenix to different input data products of land cover, to method of aggregating these data to model grid scale (1 km), for the default and derived parameter values are examined with the Noah mosaic land surface scheme adapted for using these data. Issues with adapting these non-urban NAIP classes for use in the mosaic approach will also be discussed.

Project ATLANTA (Atlanta Land use Analysis: Temperature and Air Quality): Use of Remote Sensing and Modeling to Analyze How Urban Land Use Change Affects Meteorology and Air Quality Through Time

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Quattrochi, Dale A.; Luvall, Jeffrey C.; Estes, Maurice G., Jr.

1999-01-01

This paper presents an overview of Project ATLANTA (ATlanta Land use ANalysis: Temperature and Air-quality) which is an investigation that seeks to observe, measure, model, and analyze how the rapid growth of the Atlanta, Georgia metropolitan area since the early 1970's has impacted the region's climate and air quality. The primary objectives for this research effort are: (1) To investigate and model the relationships between land cover change in the Atlanta metropolitan, and the development of the urban heat island phenomenon through time; (2) To investigate and model the temporal relationships between Atlanta urban growth and land cover change on air quality; and (3) To model the overall effects of urban development on surface energy budget characteristics across the Atlanta urban landscape through time. Our key goal is to derive a better scientific understanding of how land cover changes associated with urbanization in the Atlanta area, principally in transforming forest lands to urban land covers through time, has, and will, effect local and regional climate, surface energy flux, and air quality characteristics. Allied with this goal is the prospect that the results from this research can be applied by urban planners, environmental managers and other decision-makers, for determining how urbanization has impacted the climate and overall environment of the Atlanta area. Multiscaled remote sensing data, particularly high resolution thermal infrared data, are integral to this study for the analysis of thermal energy fluxes across the Atlanta urban landscape.

Three-dimensional geological modelling of anthropogenic deposits at small urban sites: a case study from Sheepcote Valley, Brighton, UK.

PubMed

Tame, C; Cundy, A B; Royse, K R; Smith, M; Moles, N R

2013-11-15

Improvements in computing speed and capacity and the increasing collection and digitisation of geological data now allow geoscientists to produce meaningful 3D spatial models of the shallow subsurface in many large urban areas, to predict ground conditions and reduce risk and uncertainty in urban planning. It is not yet clear how useful this 3D modelling approach is at smaller urban scales, where poorly characterised anthropogenic deposits (artificial/made ground and fill) form the dominant subsurface material and where the availability of borehole and other geological data is less comprehensive. This is important as it is these smaller urban sites, with complex site history, which frequently form the focus of urban regeneration and redevelopment schemes. This paper examines the extent to which the 3D modelling approach previously utilised at large urban scales can be extended to smaller less well-characterised urban sites, using a historic landfill site in Sheepcote Valley, Brighton, UK as a case study. Two 3D models were generated and compared using GSI3D™ software, one using borehole data only, one combining borehole data with local geological maps and results from a desk study (involving collation of available site data, including ground contour plans). These models clearly delimit the overall subsurface geology at the site, and allow visualisation and modelling of the anthropogenic deposits present. Shallow geophysical data collected from the site partially validate the 3D modelled data, and can improve GSI3D™ outputs where boundaries of anthropogenic deposits may not be clearly defined by surface, contour or borehole data. Attribution of geotechnical and geochemical properties to the 3D model is problematic without intrusive investigations and sampling. However, combining available borehole data, shallow geophysical methods and site histories may allow attribution of generic fill properties, and consequent reduction of urban development risk and uncertainty. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Integrating the simulation of domestic water demand behaviour to an urban water model using agent based modelling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Koutiva, Ifigeneia; Makropoulos, Christos

2015-04-01

The urban water system's sustainable evolution requires tools that can analyse and simulate the complete cycle including both physical and cultural environments. One of the main challenges, in this regard, is the design and development of tools that are able to simulate the society's water demand behaviour and the way policy measures affect it. The effects of these policy measures are a function of personal opinions that subsequently lead to the formation of people's attitudes. These attitudes will eventually form behaviours. This work presents the design of an ABM tool for addressing the social dimension of the urban water system. The created tool, called Urban Water Agents' Behaviour (UWAB) model, was implemented, using the NetLogo agent programming language. The main aim of the UWAB model is to capture the effects of policies and environmental pressures to water conservation behaviour of urban households. The model consists of agents representing urban households that are linked to each other creating a social network that influences the water conservation behaviour of its members. Household agents are influenced as well by policies and environmental pressures, such as drought. The UWAB model simulates behaviour resulting in the evolution of water conservation within an urban population. The final outcome of the model is the evolution of the distribution of different conservation levels (no, low, high) to the selected urban population. In addition, UWAB is implemented in combination with an existing urban water management simulation tool, the Urban Water Optioneering Tool (UWOT) in order to create a modelling platform aiming to facilitate an adaptive approach of water resources management. For the purposes of this proposed modelling platform, UWOT is used in a twofold manner: (1) to simulate domestic water demand evolution and (2) to simulate the response of the water system to the domestic water demand evolution. The main advantage of the UWAB - UWOT model integration is that it allows the investigation of the effects of different water demand management strategies to an urban population's water demand behaviour and ultimately the effects of these policies to the volume of domestic water demand and the water resources system. The proposed modelling platform is optimised to simulate the effects of water policies during the Athens drought period of 1988-1994. The calibrated modelling platform is then applied to evaluate scenarios of water supply, water demand and water demand management strategies.

Measuring directional urban spatial interaction in China: A migration perspective

PubMed Central

Li, Fangzhou; Feng, Zhiming; Li, Peng; You, Zhen

2017-01-01

The study of urban spatial interaction is closely linked to that of economic geography, urban planning, regional development, and so on. Currently, this topic is generating a great deal of interest among researchers who are striving to find accurate ways to measure urban spatial interaction. Classical spatial interaction models lack theoretical guidance and require complicated parameter-adjusting processes. The radiation model, however, as proposed by Simini et al. with rigorous formula derivation, can simulate directional urban spatial interaction. We applied the radiation model in China to simulate the directional migration number among 337 nationwide research units, comprising 4 municipalities and 333 prefecture-level cities. We then analyzed the overall situation in Chinese cities, the interaction intensity hierarchy, and the prime urban agglomerations from the perspective of migration. This was done to ascertain China’s urban spatial interaction and regional development from 2000 to 2010 to reveal ground realities. PMID:28141853

Measuring directional urban spatial interaction in China: A migration perspective.

PubMed

Li, Fangzhou; Feng, Zhiming; Li, Peng; You, Zhen

2017-01-01

The study of urban spatial interaction is closely linked to that of economic geography, urban planning, regional development, and so on. Currently, this topic is generating a great deal of interest among researchers who are striving to find accurate ways to measure urban spatial interaction. Classical spatial interaction models lack theoretical guidance and require complicated parameter-adjusting processes. The radiation model, however, as proposed by Simini et al. with rigorous formula derivation, can simulate directional urban spatial interaction. We applied the radiation model in China to simulate the directional migration number among 337 nationwide research units, comprising 4 municipalities and 333 prefecture-level cities. We then analyzed the overall situation in Chinese cities, the interaction intensity hierarchy, and the prime urban agglomerations from the perspective of migration. This was done to ascertain China's urban spatial interaction and regional development from 2000 to 2010 to reveal ground realities.

Nested High Resolution Modeling of the Impact of Urbanization on Regional Climate in Three Vast Urban Agglomerations in China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Jun; Feng, Jinming; Yan, Zhongwei; Hu, Yonghong; Jia, Gensuo

2013-04-01

In this paper, the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model coupled to the Urban Canopy Model (UCM) is employed to simulate the impact of urbanization on the regional climate over three vast city agglomerations in China. Based on high resolution land use and land cover data, two scenarios are designed to represent the non-urban and current urban land use distributions. By comparing the results of two nested, high resolution numerical experiments, the spatial and temporal changes on surface air temperature, heat stress index, surface energy budget and precipitation due to urbanization are analyzed and quantified. Urban expansion increases the surface air temperature in urban areas by about 1? and this climatic forcing of urbanization on temperature is more pronounced in summer and nighttime than other seasons and daytime. The heat stress intensity, which reflects the combined effects of temperature and humidity, is enhanced by about 0.5 units in urban areas. The regional incoming solar radiation increases after urban expansion, which may be caused by the reduction of cloud fraction. The increased temperature and roughness of the urban surface lead to enhanced convergence. Meanwhile, the planetary boundary layer is deepened and water vapor is mixed more evenly in the lower atmosphere. The deficit of water vapor leads to less convective available potential energy and more convective inhibition energy. Finally, these combined effects may reduce the rainfall amount over urban area mainly in summer and change the regional precipitation pattern to a certain extent.

Breathing easier? The known impacts of biodiesel on air quality

PubMed Central

Traviss, Nora

2013-01-01

Substantial scientific evidence exists on the negative health effects of exposure to petroleum diesel exhaust. Many view biodiesel as a ‘green’, more environmentally friendly alternative fuel, especially with respect to measured reductions of particulate matter in tailpipe emissions. Tailpipe emissions data sets from heavy-duty diesel engines comparing diesel and biodiesel fuels provide important information regarding the composition and potential aggregate contribution of particulate matter and other pollutants to regional airsheds. However, exposure – defined in this instance as human contact with tailpipe emissions – is another key link in the chain between emissions and human health effects. Although numerous biodiesel emissions studies exist, biodiesel exposure studies are nearly absent from the literature. This article summarizes the known impacts of biodiesel on air quality and health effects, comparing emissions and exposure research. In light of rapidly changing engine, fuel and exhaust technologies, both emissions and exposure studies are necessary for developing a fuller understanding of the impact of biodiesel on air quality and human health. PMID:23585814

A decision support tool for sustainable planning of urban water systems: presenting the Dynamic Urban Water Simulation Model.

PubMed

Willuweit, Lars; O'Sullivan, John J

2013-12-15

Population growth, urbanisation and climate change represent significant pressures on urban water resources, requiring water managers to consider a wider array of management options that account for economic, social and environmental factors. The Dynamic Urban Water Simulation Model (DUWSiM) developed in this study links urban water balance concepts with the land use dynamics model MOLAND and the climate model LARS-WG, providing a platform for long term planning of urban water supply and water demand by analysing the effects of urbanisation scenarios and climatic changes on the urban water cycle. Based on potential urbanisation scenarios and their effects on a city's water cycle, DUWSiM provides the functionality for assessing the feasibility of centralised and decentralised water supply and water demand management options based on forecasted water demand, stormwater and wastewater generation, whole life cost and energy and potential for water recycling. DUWSiM has been tested using data from Dublin, the capital of Ireland, and it has been shown that the model is able to satisfactorily predict water demand and stormwater runoff. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Integrated modeling of storm drain and natural channel networks for real-time flash flood forecasting in large urban areas

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Habibi, H.; Norouzi, A.; Habib, A.; Seo, D. J.

2016-12-01

To produce accurate predictions of flooding in urban areas, it is necessary to model both natural channel and storm drain networks. While there exist many urban hydraulic models of varying sophistication, most of them are not practical for real-time application for large urban areas. On the other hand, most distributed hydrologic models developed for real-time applications lack the ability to explicitly simulate storm drains. In this work, we develop a storm drain model that can be coupled with distributed hydrologic models such as the National Weather Service Hydrology Laboratory's Distributed Hydrologic Model, for real-time flash flood prediction in large urban areas to improve prediction and to advance the understanding of integrated response of natural channels and storm drains to rainfall events of varying magnitude and spatiotemporal extent in urban catchments of varying sizes. The initial study area is the Johnson Creek Catchment (40.1 km2) in the City of Arlington, TX. For observed rainfall, the high-resolution (500 m, 1 min) precipitation data from the Dallas-Fort Worth Demonstration Network of the Collaborative Adaptive Sensing of the Atmosphere radars is used.

Model analysis of urbanization impacts on boundary layer meteorology under hot weather conditions: a case study of Nanjing, China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chen, Lei; Zhang, Meigen; Wang, Yongwei

2016-08-01

The Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model, configured with a single-layer urban canopy model, was employed to investigate the influence of urbanization on boundary layer meteorological parameters during a long-lasting heat wave. This study was conducted over Nanjing city, East China, from 26 July to 4 August 2010. The impacts of urban expansion and anthropogenic heat (AH) release were simulated to quantify their effects on 2-m temperature, 2-m water vapor mixing ratio, and 10-m wind speed and heat stress index. Urban sprawl increased the daily 2-m temperature in urbanized areas by around 1.6 °C and decreased the urban diurnal temperature range (DTR) by 1.24 °C. The contribution of AH release to the atmospheric warming was nearly 22 %, but AH had little influence on the DTR. The urban regional mean surface wind speed decreased by about 0.4 m s-1, and this decrease was successfully simulated from the surface to 300 m. The influence of urbanization on 2-m water vapor mixing ratio was significant over highly urbanized areas with a decrease of 1.1-1.8 g kg-1. With increased urbanization ratio, the duration of the inversion layer was about 4 h shorter, and the lower atmospheric layer was less stable. Urban heat island (UHI) intensity was significantly enhanced when synthesizing both urban sprawl and AH release and the daily mean UHI intensity increased by 0.74 °C. Urbanization increased the time under extreme heat stress (about 40 %) and worsened the living environment in urban areas.

The impact of urban canopy meteorological forcing on summer photochemistry

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Huszár, Peter; Karlický, Jan; Belda, Michal; Halenka, Tomáš; Pišoft, Petr

2018-03-01

The regional climate model RegCM4.4, including the surface model CLM4.5, was offline coupled to the chemistry transport model CAMx version 6.30 in order to investigate the impact of the urban canopy induced meteorological changes on the longterm summer photochemistry over central Europe for the 2001-2005 period. First, the urban canopy impact on the meteorological conditions was calculated performing a reference experiment without urban landsurface considered and an experiment with urban surfaces modeled with the urban parameterization within the CLM4.5 model. In accordance with expectations, strong increases of urban surface temperatures (up to 2-3 K), decreases of wind speed (up to -1 ms-1) and increases of vertical turbulent diffusion coefficient (up to 60-70 m2s-1) were found. For the impact on chemistry, these three components were considered. Additionally, we accounted for the effect of temperature enhanced biogenic emission increase. Several experiments were performed by adding these effects one-by-one to the total impact: i.e., first, only the urban temperature impact was considered driving the chemistry model; secondly, the wind impact was added and so on. We found that the impact on biogenic emission account for minor changes in the concentrations of ozone (O3), oxides of nitrogen NOx = NO + NO2 and nitric acid (HNO3). On the other hand, the dominating component acting is the increased vertical mixing, resulting in up to 5 ppbv increase of urban ozone concentrations while causing -2 to -3 ppbv decreases and around 1 ppbv increases of NOx and HNO3 surface concentrations, respectively. The temperature impact alone results in reduction of ozone, increase in NO, decrease in NO2 and increases of HNO3. The wind impact leads, over urban areas, to ozone decreases, increases of NOx and a slight increase in HNO3. The overall impact is similar to the impact of increased vertical mixing alone. The Process Analysis (PA) technique implemented in CAMx was adopted to investigate the causes of the modeled impacts in more details. It showed that the main process contributing to the temperature impact on ozone is a dry-deposition enhancement, while the dominating process controlling the wind impact on ozone over cities is the advection reduction. In case of the impact of enhanced turbulence, PA suggests that ozone increases are, again as assumed, the result of increased downward vertical mixing supported by reduced chemical loss. Comparing the model concentrations with measurements over urban areas, a slight improvement of the model performance was achieved during afternoon hours if urban canopy forcing on chemistry via meteorology was accounted for. The study demonstrates that disregarding the urban canopy induced meteorological effects in air-quality oriented modeling studies can lead to erroneous results in the calculated species concentrations. However, it also shows that the individual components are not equally important: urban canopy induced turbulence effects dominate while the wind-speed and temperature related ones are of considerably smaller magnitude.

Urban stormwater inundation simulation based on SWMM and diffusive overland-flow model.

PubMed

Chen, Wenjie; Huang, Guoru; Zhang, Han

2017-12-01

With rapid urbanization, inundation-induced property losses have become more and more severe. Urban inundation modeling is an effective way to reduce these losses. This paper introduces a simplified urban stormwater inundation simulation model based on the United States Environmental Protection Agency Storm Water Management Model (SWMM) and a geographic information system (GIS)-based diffusive overland-flow model. SWMM is applied for computation of flows in storm sewer systems and flooding flows at junctions, while the GIS-based diffusive overland-flow model simulates surface runoff and inundation. One observed rainfall scenario on Haidian Island, Hainan Province, China was chosen to calibrate the model and the other two were used for validation. Comparisons of the model results with field-surveyed data and InfoWorks ICM (Integrated Catchment Modeling) modeled results indicated the inundation model in this paper can provide inundation extents and reasonable inundation depths even in a large study area.

The application of remote sensing techniques to selected inter and intra urban data acquisition problems

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Horton, F. E.

1970-01-01

The utility of remote sensing techniques to urban data acquisition problems in several distinct areas was identified. This endeavor included a comparison of remote sensing systems for urban data collection, the extraction of housing quality data from aerial photography, utilization of photographic sensors in urban transportation studies, urban change detection, space photography utilization, and an application of remote sensing techniques to the acquisition of data concerning intra-urban commercial centers. The systematic evaluation of variable extraction for urban modeling and planning at several different scales, and the model derivation for identifying and predicting economic growth and change within a regional system of cities are also studied.

Modeling the dynamics of urban growth using multinomial logistic regression: a case study of Jiayu County, Hubei Province, China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nong, Yu; Du, Qingyun; Wang, Kun; Miao, Lei; Zhang, Weiwei

2008-10-01

Urban growth modeling, one of the most important aspects of land use and land cover change study, has attracted substantial attention because it helps to comprehend the mechanisms of land use change thus helps relevant policies made. This study applied multinomial logistic regression to model urban growth in the Jiayu county of Hubei province, China to discover the relationship between urban growth and the driving forces of which biophysical and social-economic factors are selected as independent variables. This type of regression is similar to binary logistic regression, but it is more general because the dependent variable is not restricted to two categories, as those previous studies did. The multinomial one can simulate the process of multiple land use competition between urban land, bare land, cultivated land and orchard land. Taking the land use type of Urban as reference category, parameters could be estimated with odds ratio. A probability map is generated from the model to predict where urban growth will occur as a result of the computation.

Source apportionments of ambient fine particulate matter in Israeli, Jordanian, and Palestinian cities.

PubMed

Heo, Jongbae; Wu, Bo; Abdeen, Ziad; Qasrawi, Radwan; Sarnat, Jeremy A; Sharf, Geula; Shpund, Kobby; Schauer, James J

2017-06-01

This manuscript evaluates spatial and temporal variations of source contributions to ambient fine particulate matter (PM 2.5 ) in Israeli, Jordanian, and Palestinian cities. Twenty-four hour integrated PM 2.5 samples were collected every six days over a 1-year period (January to December 2007) in four cities in Israel (West Jerusalem, Eilat, Tel Aviv, and Haifa), four cities in Jordan (Amman, Aqaba, Rahma, and Zarka), and three cities in Palestine (Nablus, East Jerusalem, and Hebron). The PM 2.5 samples were analyzed for major chemical components, including organic carbon and elemental carbon, ions, and metals, and the results were used in a positive matrix factorization (PMF) model to estimate source contributions to PM 2.5 mass. Nine sources, including secondary sulfate, secondary nitrate, mobile, industrial lead sources, dust, construction dust, biomass burning, fuel oil combustion and sea salt, were identified across the sampling sites. Secondary sulfate was the dominant source, contributing 35% of the total PM 2.5 mass, and it showed relatively homogeneous temporal trends of daily source contribution in the study area. Mobile sources were found to be the second greatest contributor to PM 2.5 mass in the large metropolitan cities, such as Tel Aviv, Hebron, and West and East Jerusalem. Other sources (i.e. industrial lead sources, construction dust, and fuel oil combustion) were closely related to local emissions within individual cities. This study demonstrates how international cooperation can facilitate air pollution studies that address regional air pollution issues and the incremental differences across cities in a common airshed. It also provides a model to study air pollution in regions with limited air quality monitoring capacity that have persistent and emerging air quality problems, such as Africa, South Asia and Central America. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

On the urban land-surface impact on climate over Central Europe

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Huszar, Peter; Halenka, Tomas; Belda, Michal; Zemankova, Katerina; Zak, Michal

2014-05-01

For the purpose of qualifying and quantifying the impact of cities and in general the urban surfaces on climate over central Europe, the surface parameterization in regional climate model RegCM4 has been extended with the Single Layer Urban Canopy Model (SLUCM) for urban and suburban land surface. This can be used both in dynamic scale within BATS scheme and in a more detailed SUBBATS scale to treat the surface processes on a higher resolution subgrid. A set of experiments was performed over the period of 2005-2009 over central Europe, either without considering urban surfaces and with the SLUCM treatment. Results show a statistically significant impact of urbanized surfaces on temperature (up to 1.5 K increase in summer), on the boundary layer height (ZPBL, increases up to 50 m). Urbanization further influences surface wind with a winter decrease up to -0,6 m s-1 and both increases and decreases in summer depending the location with respect to cities and daytime (changes up to 0.3 ms-1). Urban surfaces significantly reduce evaporation and thus the humidity over the surface. This impacts in our simulations the summer precipitation rate showing decrease over cities up to - 2 mm day-1. We further showed, that significant temperature increases are not limited to the urban canopy layer but spawn the whole boundary layer. Above that, a small but statistically significant temperature decrease is modeled. The comparison with observational data showed significant improvement in modeling the monthly surface temperatures in summer and the models better describe the diurnal temperature variation reducing the afternoon and evening bias due to the UHI development, which was not captured by the model if one does not apply the urban parameterization. Sensitivity experiments were carried out as well to quantify the response of the meteorological conditions to changes in the parameters specific to the urban environment such as street width, building height, albedo of the roofs, anthropogenic heat release etc. and showed that the results are rather robust and the choice of the key SLUCM parameters impacts the results only slightly (mainly temperature, ZPBL and wind velocity). Further, the important conclusion is that statistically significant impacts are modeled not only over large urbanized areas (cities), but the influence of cities is evident over remote rural areas as well with minor or without any urban surfaces. We show that this is the result of the combined effect of the distant influence of surrounding cities and the influence of the minor local urban surface coverage.

Impacts of Urbanization in the Coastal Tropical City of San Juan, Puerto Rico

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Comarazamy, Daniel E.; Gonzalez, Jorge E.; Luvall, Jeffrey C.; Rickman, Douglass

2007-01-01

Urban sprawl in tropical locations is rapidly accelerating and it is more evident in islands where a large percentage of the population resides along the coasts. This paper focuses on the analysis of the impacts of land use and land cover for urbanization in the tropical coastal city of San Juan, in the Caribbean island of Puerto Rico. A mesoscale numerical model, the Regional Atmospheric Modeling System (RAMS), is used to study the impacts of land use for urbanization in the environment including specific characteristics of the urban heat island in the San Juan Metropolitan Area (SJMA), one of the most noticeable urban cores of the Caribbean. The research also makes use of the observations obtained during the airborne San Juan Atlas Mission. Surface and raw insonde data from the mission are used to validate the atmospheric model yielding satisfactory results. Airborne high resolution remote sensing data are used to update the model's surface characteristics in order to obtain a more accurate and detailed configuration of the SJMA and perform a climate impact analysis based on land cover/land use (LCLU) changes. The impact analysis showed that the presence of the urban landscape of San Juan has an impact reflected in higher air temperatures over the area occupied by the city, with positive values of up to 2.5 degrees C, for the simulations that have specified urban LCLU indexes in the model's bottom boundary. One interesting result of the impact analysis was the finding of a precipitation disturbance shown as a difference in total accumulated rainfall between the present urban landscape and with a potential natural vegetation, apparently induced by the presence of the urban area. Results indicate that the urban-enhanced cloud formation and precipitation development occur mainly downwind of the city, including the accumulated precipitation. This spatial pattern can be explained by the presence of a larger urbanized area in the southwest sector of the city, and of the approaching northeasterly trade winds.

Environmental Sustainability and Effects on Urban Micro Region using Agent-Based Modeling of Urbanisation in Select Major Indian Cities

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Aithal, B. H.

2015-12-01

Abstract: Urbanisation has gained momentum with globalization in India. Policy decisions to set up commercial, industrial hubs have fuelled large scale migration, added with population upsurge has contributed to the fast growing urban region that needs to be monitored in order to design sustainable urban cities. Unplanned urbanization have resulted in the growth of peri-urban region referred to as urban sprawl, are often devoid of basic amenities and infrastructure leading to large scale environmental problems that are evident. Remote sensing data acquired through space borne sensors at regular interval helps in understanding urban dynamics aided by Geoinformatics which has proved very effective in mapping and monitoring for sustainable urban planning. Cellular automata (CA) is a robust approach for the spatially explicit simulation of land-use land cover dynamics. CA uses rules, states, conditions that are vital factors in modelling urbanisation. This communication effectively introduces simulation assistances of CA with the agent based modelling supported by its fuzzy characteristics and weightages through analytical hierarchal process (AHP). This has been done considering perceived agents such as industries, natural resource etc. Respective agent's role in development of a particular regions into an urban area has been examined with weights and its influence of each of these agents based on its characteristics functions. Validation was performed obtaining a high kappa coefficient indicating the quality and the allocation performance of the model & validity of the model to predict future projections. The prediction using the proposed model was performed for 2030. Further environmental sustainability of each of these cities are explored such as water features, environment, greenhouse gas emissions, effects on human human health etc., Modeling suggests trend of various land use classes transformation with the spurt in urban expansions based on specific regions and policies providing a visual spatial information to both urban planners and city managers. Further environmental sustainability assessment indicates dwindling natural resources and increase in thermal discomfort to the living population thereby indicating need for balanced and planned development.

Monitoring and Predicting Land-use Changes and the Hydrology of the Urbanized Paochiao Watershed in Taiwan Using Remote Sensing Data, Urban Growth Models and a Hydrological Model.

PubMed

Lin, Yu-Pin; Lin, Yun-Bin; Wang, Yen-Tan; Hong, Nien-Ming

2008-02-04

Monitoring and simulating urban sprawl and its effects on land-use patterns andhydrological processes in urbanized watersheds are essential in land-use and waterresourceplanning and management. This study applies a novel framework to the urbangrowth model Slope, Land use, Excluded land, Urban extent, Transportation, andHillshading (SLEUTH) and land-use change with the Conversion of Land use and itsEffects (CLUE-s) model using historical SPOT images to predict urban sprawl in thePaochiao watershed in Taipei County, Taiwan. The historical and predicted land-use datawas input into Patch Analyst to obtain landscape metrics. This data was also input to theGeneralized Watershed Loading Function (GWLF) model to analyze the effects of futureurban sprawl on the land-use patterns and watershed hydrology. The landscape metrics ofthe historical SPOT images show that land-use patterns changed between 1990-2000. TheSLEUTH model accurately simulated historical land-use patterns and urban sprawl in thePaochiao watershed, and simulated future clustered land-use patterns (2001-2025). TheCLUE-s model also simulated land-use patterns for the same period and yielded historical trends in the metrics of land-use patterns. The land-use patterns predicted by the SLEUTHand CLUE-s models show the significant impact urban sprawl will have on land-usepatterns in the Paochiao watershed. The historical and predicted land-use patterns in thewatershed tended to fragment, had regular shapes and interspersion patterns, but wererelatively less isolated in 2001-2025 and less interspersed from 2005-2025 compared withland-use pattern in 1990. During the study, the variability and magnitude of hydrologicalcomponents based on the historical and predicted land-use patterns were cumulativelyaffected by urban sprawl in the watershed; specifically, surface runoff increasedsignificantly by 22.0% and baseflow decreased by 18.0% during 1990-2025. The proposedapproach is an effective means of enhancing land-use monitoring and management ofurbanized watersheds.

Nested high-resolution modeling of the impact of urbanization on regional climate in three vast urban agglomerations in China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Jun; Feng, Jinming; Yan, Zhongwei; Hu, Yonghong; Jia, Gensuo

2012-11-01

In this paper, the Weather Research and Forecasting Model, coupled to the Urban Canopy Model, is employed to simulate the impact of urbanization on the regional climate over three vast city agglomerations in China. Based on high-resolution land use and land cover data, two scenarios are designed to represent the nonurban and current urban land use distributions. By comparing the results of two nested, high-resolution numerical experiments, the spatial and temporal changes on surface air temperature, heat stress index, surface energy budget, and precipitation due to urbanization are analyzed and quantified. Urban expansion increases the surface air temperature in urban areas by about 1°C, and this climatic forcing of urbanization on temperature is more pronounced in summer and nighttime than other seasons and daytime. The heat stress intensity, which reflects the combined effects of temperature and humidity, is enhanced by about 0.5 units in urban areas. The regional incoming solar radiation increases after urban expansion, which may be caused by the reduction of cloud fraction. The increased temperature and roughness of the urban surface lead to enhanced convergence. Meanwhile, the planetary boundary layer is deepened, and water vapor is mixed more evenly in the lower atmosphere. The deficit of water vapor leads to less convective available potential energy and more convective inhibition energy. Finally, these combined effects may reduce the rainfall amount over urban areas, mainly in summer, and change the regional precipitation pattern to a certain extent.

URBAN MORPHOLOGICAL ANALYSIS FOR MESOSCALE METEOROLOGICAL AND DISPERSION MODELING APPLICATIONS: CURRENT ISSUES

EPA Science Inventory

Representing urban terrain characteristics in mesoscale meteorological and dispersion models is critical to produce accurate predictions of wind flow and temperature fields, air quality, and contaminant transport. A key component of the urban terrain representation is the charac...

Built Expansion and Global Climate Change Drive Projected Urban Heat: Relative Magnitudes, Interactions, and Mitigation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Krayenhoff, E. S.; Georgescu, M.; Moustaoui, M.

2016-12-01

Surface climates are projected to warm due to global climate change over the course of the 21st century, and demographic projections suggest urban areas in the United States will continue to expand and develop, with associated local climate outcomes. Interactions between these two drivers of urban heat have not been robustly quantified to date. Here, simulations with the Weather Research and Forecasting model (coupled to a Single-Layer Urban Canopy Model) are performed at 20 km resolution over the continental U.S. for two 10-year periods: contemporary (2000-2009) and end-of-century (2090-2099). Present and end of century urban land use are derived from the Environmental Protection Agency's Integrated Climate and Land-Use Scenarios. Modelled effects on urban climates are evaluated regionally. Sensitivity to climate projection (Community Climate System Model 4.0, RCP 4.5 vs. RCP 8.5) and associated urban development scenarios are assessed. Effects on near-surface urban air temperature of RCP8.5 climate change are greater than those attributable to the corresponding urban development in many regions. Interaction effects vary by region, and while of lesser magnitude, are not negligible. Moreover, urban development and its interactions with RCP8.5 climate change modify the distribution of convective precipitation over the eastern US. Interaction effects result from the different meteorological effects of urban areas under current and future climate. Finally, the potential for design implementations such as green roofs and high albedo roofs to offset the projected warming is considered. Impacts of these implementations on precipitation are also assessed.

Monitoring Urbanization-Related Land Cover Change on the U.S. Great Plains and Impacts on Remotely Sensed Vegetation Dynamics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Krehbiel, C. P.; Jackson, T.; Henebry, G. M.

2014-12-01

Earth is currently in an era of rapid urban growth with >50% of global population living in urban areas. Urbanization occurs alongside urban population growth, as cities expand to meet the demands of increasing population. Consequently, there is a need for remote sensing research to detect, monitor, and measure urbanization and its impacts on the biosphere. Here we used MODIS and Landsat data products to (1) detect urbanization-related land cover changes, (2) investigate urbanization-related impacts on land surface phenology (LSP) across rural to urban gradients and (3) explore fractional vegetation and impervious surface area regionally across the US Great Plains and within 14 cities in this region. We used the NLCD Percent Impervious Surface Area (%ISA) and Land Cover Type (LCT) products from 2001, 2006, and 2011 for 30m classification of the peri-urban environment. We investigated the impacts of urbanization-related land cover change on urban LSP at 30m resolution using the NDVI product from Web Enabled Landsat Data (http://weld.cr.usgs.gov) with accumulated growing degree-days calculated from first-order weather stations. We fitted convex quadratic LSP models to a decade (2003-2012) of observations to yield these phenometrics: modeled peak NDVI, time (thermal and calendar) to modeled peak, duration of season (DOS), and model fit. We compared our results to NDVI from MODIS NBAR (500m) and we explored the utility of 4 μm radiance (MODIS band 23) at 1 km resolution to characterize fractional vegetation dynamics in and around urbanized areas. Across all 14 cities we found increases in urbanized area (>25 %ISA) exceeding 10% from 2001-2011. Using LSP phenometrics, we were able to detect changes from cropland to suburban LCTs. In general we found negative relationships between DOS and distance from city center. We found a distinct seasonal cycle of MIR radiance over cropland LCTs due to the spectral contrast between bare soils and green vegetation.

Potential sensitivity of warm season precipitation to urbanization extents: Modeling study in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei urban agglomeration in China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Jun; Feng, Jinming; Yan, Zhongwei

2015-09-01

In this study, we investigated how different degrees of urbanization affect local and regional rainfall using high-resolution simulations based on the Weather Research and Forecasting Model. The extreme rainfall event of 21 July 2012 in Beijing was simulated for three representative urban land use distributions (no urbanization, early urbanization level of 1980, and recent urbanization level of 2009). Results suggest that urban modification of rainfall is potentially sensitive to urban land use condition. Rainfall was increased significantly over the downwind Beijing metropolis because of the effects of early urbanization; however, recent conditions of high urban development caused no significant increase. Further comparative analysis revealed that positive urban thermodynamical effects (i.e., urban warming, increased sensible heat transportation, and enhanced convergence and vertical motions) play major roles in urban modification of rainfall during the early urbanization stage. However, after cities expand to a certain extent (i.e., urban agglomeration), the regional moisture depression induced by the prevalence of impervious urban land has an effect on atmospheric instability energy, which might negate the city's positive impact on regional rainfall. Additional results from regional climate simulations for 10 Julys confirm this supposition. Given the explosive urban population growth and increasing demand for freshwater in cities, the potential negative effects of the urban environment on precipitation are worth investigation, particularly in rapidly developing countries and regions.

Modeling urban building energy use: A review of modeling approaches and procedures

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Li, Wenliang; Zhou, Yuyu; Cetin, Kristen

With rapid urbanization and economic development, the world has been experiencing an unprecedented increase in energy consumption and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. While reducing energy consumption and GHG emissions is a common interest shared by major developed and developing countries, actions to enable these global reductions are generally implemented at the city scale. This is because baseline information from individual cities plays an important role in identifying economical options for improving building energy efficiency and reducing GHG emissions. Numerous approaches have been proposed for modeling urban building energy use in the past decades. This paper aims to provide an up-to-datemore » review of the broad categories of energy models for urban buildings and describes the basic workflow of physics-based, bottom-up models and their applications in simulating urban-scale building energy use. Because there are significant differences across models with varied potential for application, strengths and weaknesses of the reviewed models are also presented. This is followed by a discussion of challenging issues associated with model preparation and calibration.« less

Modeling urban building energy use: A review of modeling approaches and procedures

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Li, Wenliang; Zhou, Yuyu; Cetin, Kristen

With rapid urbanization and economic development, the world has been experiencing an unprecedented increase in energy consumption and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. While reducing energy consumption and GHG emissions is a common interest shared by major developed and developing countries, actions to enable these global reductions are generally implemented at the city scale. This is because baseline information from individual cities plays an important role in identifying economical options for improving building energy efficiency and reducing GHG emissions. Numerous approaches have been proposed for modeling urban building energy use in the past decades. Our paper aims to provide an up-to-datemore » review of the broad categories of energy models for urban buildings and describes the basic workflow of physics-based, bottom-up models and their applications in simulating urban-scale building energy use. Because there are significant differences across models with varied potential for application, strengths and weaknesses of the reviewed models are also presented. We then follow this with a discussion of challenging issues associated with model preparation and calibration.« less

Modeling urban building energy use: A review of modeling approaches and procedures

DOE PAGES

Li, Wenliang; Zhou, Yuyu; Cetin, Kristen; ...

2017-11-13

With rapid urbanization and economic development, the world has been experiencing an unprecedented increase in energy consumption and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. While reducing energy consumption and GHG emissions is a common interest shared by major developed and developing countries, actions to enable these global reductions are generally implemented at the city scale. This is because baseline information from individual cities plays an important role in identifying economical options for improving building energy efficiency and reducing GHG emissions. Numerous approaches have been proposed for modeling urban building energy use in the past decades. Our paper aims to provide an up-to-datemore » review of the broad categories of energy models for urban buildings and describes the basic workflow of physics-based, bottom-up models and their applications in simulating urban-scale building energy use. Because there are significant differences across models with varied potential for application, strengths and weaknesses of the reviewed models are also presented. We then follow this with a discussion of challenging issues associated with model preparation and calibration.« less

Constraining the uncertainty in emissions over India with a regional air quality model evaluation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Karambelas, Alexandra; Holloway, Tracey; Kiesewetter, Gregor; Heyes, Chris

2018-02-01

To evaluate uncertainty in the spatial distribution of air emissions over India, we compare satellite and surface observations with simulations from the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) Community Multi-Scale Air Quality (CMAQ) model. Seasonally representative simulations were completed for January, April, July, and October 2010 at 36 km × 36 km using anthropogenic emissions from the Greenhouse Gas-Air Pollution Interaction and Synergies (GAINS) model following version 5a of the Evaluating the Climate and Air Quality Impacts of Short-Lived Pollutants project (ECLIPSE v5a). We use both tropospheric columns from the Ozone Monitoring Instrument (OMI) and surface observations from the Central Pollution Control Board (CPCB) to closely examine modeled nitrogen dioxide (NO2) biases in urban and rural regions across India. Spatial average evaluation with satellite retrievals indicate a low bias in the modeled tropospheric column (-63.3%), which reflects broad low-biases in majority non-urban regions (-70.1% in rural areas) across the sub-continent to slightly lesser low biases reflected in semi-urban areas (-44.7%), with the threshold between semi-urban and rural defined as 400 people per km2. In contrast, modeled surface NO2 concentrations exhibit a slight high bias of +15.6% when compared to surface CPCB observations predominantly located in urban areas. Conversely, in examining extremely population dense urban regions with more than 5000 people per km2 (dense-urban), we find model overestimates in both the column (+57.8) and at the surface (+131.2%) compared to observations. Based on these results, we find that existing emission fields for India may overestimate urban emissions in densely populated regions and underestimate rural emissions. However, if we rely on model evaluation with predominantly urban surface observations from the CPCB, comparisons reflect model high biases, contradictory to the knowledge gained using satellite observations. Satellites thus serve as an important emissions and model evaluation metric where surface observations are lacking, such as rural India, and support improved emissions inventory development.

NEIGHBORHOOD SCALE AIR QUALITY MODELING IN HOUSTON USING URBAN CANOPY PARAMETERS IN MM5 AND CMAQ WITH IMPROVED CHARACTERIZATION OF MESOSCALE LAKE-LAND BREEZE CIRCULATION

EPA Science Inventory

Advanced capability of air quality simulation models towards accurate performance at finer scales will be needed for such models to serve as tools for performing exposure and risk assessments in urban areas. It is recognized that the impact of urban features such as street and t...

Constructing an Urban Population Model for Medical Insurance Scheme Using Microsimulation Techniques

PubMed Central

Xiong, Linping; Zhang, Lulu; Tang, Weidong; Ma, Yuqin

2012-01-01

China launched a pilot project of medical insurance reform in 79 cities in 2007 to cover urban nonworking residents. An urban population model was created in this paper for China's medical insurance scheme using microsimulation model techniques. The model made it clear for the policy makers the population distributions of different groups of people, the potential urban residents entering the medical insurance scheme. The income trends of units of individuals and families were also obtained. These factors are essential in making the challenging policy decisions when considering to balance the long-term financial sustainability of the medical insurance scheme. PMID:22481973

Efficiently modelling urban heat storage: an interface conduction scheme in an urban land surface model (aTEB v2.0)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lipson, Mathew J.; Hart, Melissa A.; Thatcher, Marcus

2017-03-01

Intercomparison studies of models simulating the partitioning of energy over urban land surfaces have shown that the heat storage term is often poorly represented. In this study, two implicit discrete schemes representing heat conduction through urban materials are compared. We show that a well-established method of representing conduction systematically underestimates the magnitude of heat storage compared with exact solutions of one-dimensional heat transfer. We propose an alternative method of similar complexity that is better able to match exact solutions at typically employed resolutions. The proposed interface conduction scheme is implemented in an urban land surface model and its impact assessed over a 15-month observation period for a site in Melbourne, Australia, resulting in improved overall model performance for a variety of common material parameter choices and aerodynamic heat transfer parameterisations. The proposed scheme has the potential to benefit land surface models where computational constraints require a high level of discretisation in time and space, for example at neighbourhood/city scales, and where realistic material properties are preferred, for example in studies investigating impacts of urban planning changes.

Urban Flow and Pollutant Dispersion Simulation with Multi-scale coupling of Meteorological Model with Computational Fluid Dynamic Analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liu, Yushi; Poh, Hee Joo

2014-11-01

The Computational Fluid Dynamics analysis has become increasingly important in modern urban planning in order to create highly livable city. This paper presents a multi-scale modeling methodology which couples Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Model with open source CFD simulation tool, OpenFOAM. This coupling enables the simulation of the wind flow and pollutant dispersion in urban built-up area with high resolution mesh. In this methodology meso-scale model WRF provides the boundary condition for the micro-scale CFD model OpenFOAM. The advantage is that the realistic weather condition is taken into account in the CFD simulation and complexity of building layout can be handled with ease by meshing utility of OpenFOAM. The result is validated against the Joint Urban 2003 Tracer Field Tests in Oklahoma City and there is reasonably good agreement between the CFD simulation and field observation. The coupling of WRF- OpenFOAM provide urban planners with reliable environmental modeling tool in actual urban built-up area; and it can be further extended with consideration of future weather conditions for the scenario studies on climate change impact.

Model of urban poverty alleviation through the development of entrepreneurial spirit and business competence

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Aryaningsih, NN; Irianto, Kt; Marsa Arsana, Md; Juli Suarbawa, Kt

2018-01-01

The rapid increased of urban population can not be controlled by the city government. This will have an impact on the emergence of new poverty in urban areas, due to inadequate of the job opportunities and skills. Government programs for poverty alleviation can reduce some rural poverty, but have not been able to overcome poverty in urban areas. The diversity of urban issues and needs is greater than in rural areas. Therefore, it is necessary to conduct the research with the aim to build urban poverty reduction model through the development of entrepreneurship spirit and business competence. This research was conducted by investigation method, and questionnaire. Questionnaires are arranged with rating scale measurements. The validity and reliability of the questionnaire were tested by factor analysis. Model construction is constructed from various informant analyzes and descriptive statistical analysis. The results show that poverty alleviation model is very effective done by developing spirit of entrepreneurship and business competence.

Modeling fractal cities using the correlated percolation model.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Makse, Hernán A.; Havlin, Shlomo; Stanley, H. Eugene

1996-03-01

Cities grow in a way that might be expected to resemble the growth of two-dimensional aggregates of particles, and this has led to recent attempts to model urban growth using ideas from the statistical physics of clusters. In particular, the model of diffusion limited aggregation (DLA) has been invoked to rationalize the apparently fractal nature of urban morphologies(M. Batty and P. Longley, Fractal Cities) (Academic, San Diego, 1994). The DLA model predicts that there should exist only one large fractal cluster, which is almost perfectly screened from incoming 'development units' (representing, for example, people, capital or resources), so that almost all of the cluster growth takes place at the tips of the cluster's branches. We show that an alternative model(H. A. Makse, S. Havlin, H. E. Stanley, Nature 377), 608 (1995), in which development units are correlated rather than being added to the cluster at random, is better able to reproduce the observed morphology of cities and the area distribution of sub-clusters ('towns') in an urban system, and can also describe urban growth dynamics. Our physical model, which corresponds to the correlated percolation model in the presence of a density gradient, is motivated by the fact that in urban areas development attracts further development. The model offers the possibility of predicting the global properties (such as scaling behavior) of urban morphologies.

Enhancing non-refractory aerosol apportionment from an urban industrial site through receptor modelling of complete high time-resolution aerosol mass spectra

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

McGuire, M. L.; Chang, R. Y.-W.; Slowik, J. G.; Jeong, C.-H.; Healy, R. M.; Lu, G.; Mihele, C.; Abbatt, J. P. D.; Brook, J. R.; Evans, G. J.

2014-02-01

Receptor modelling was performed on quadrupole unit mass resolution aerosol mass spectrometer (Q-AMS) sub-micron particulate matter (PM) chemical speciation measurements from Windsor, Ontario, an industrial city situated across the Detroit River from Detroit, Michigan. Aerosol and trace gas measurements were collected on board Environment Canada's CRUISER mobile laboratory. Positive matrix factorization (PMF) was performed on the AMS full particle-phase mass spectrum (PMFFull MS) encompassing both organic and inorganic components. This approach was compared to the more common method of analysing only the organic mass spectra (PMFOrg MS). PMF of the full mass spectrum revealed that variability in the non-refractory sub-micron aerosol concentration and composition was best explained by six factors: an amine-containing factor (Amine); an ammonium sulphate and oxygenated organic aerosol containing factor (Sulphate-OA); an ammonium nitrate and oxygenated organic aerosol containing factor (Nitrate-OA); an ammonium chloride containing factor (Chloride); a hydrocarbon-like organic aerosol (HOA) factor; and a moderately oxygenated organic aerosol factor (OOA). PMF of the organic mass spectrum revealed three factors of similar composition to some of those revealed through PMFFull MS: Amine, HOA and OOA. Including both the inorganic and organic mass proved to be a beneficial approach to analysing the unit mass resolution AMS data for several reasons. First, it provided a method for potentially calculating more accurate sub-micron PM mass concentrations, particularly when unusual factors are present, in this case, an Amine factor. As this method does not rely on a priori knowledge of chemical species, it circumvents the need for any adjustments to the traditional AMS species fragmentation patterns to account for atypical species, and can thus lead to more complete factor profiles. It is expected that this method would be even more useful for HR-ToF-AMS data, due to the ability to better understand the chemical nature of atypical factors from high resolution mass spectra. Second, utilizing PMF to extract factors containing inorganic species allowed for the determination of extent of neutralization, which could have implications for aerosol parameterization. Third, subtler differences in organic aerosol components were resolved through the incorporation of inorganic mass into the PMF matrix. The additional temporal features provided by the inorganic aerosol components allowed for the resolution of more types of oxygenated organic aerosol than could be reliably resolved from PMF of organics alone. Comparison of findings from the PMFFull MS and PMFOrg MS methods showed that for the Windsor airshed, the PMFFull MS method enabled additional conclusions to be drawn in terms of aerosol sources and chemical processes. While performing PMFOrg MS can provide important distinctions between types of organic aerosol, it is shown that including inorganic species in the PMF analysis can permit further apportionment of organics for unit mass resolution AMS mass spectra.

Growth Scenarios for the City of Guangzhou, China: Transferability and Confirmability

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lehner, A.; Kraus, V.; Wei, C.; Steinnocher, K.

2016-09-01

This work deals with the development of urban growth scenarios and the prevision of the spatial distribution of built-up area and population for the urban area of the city of Guangzhou in China. Using freely-available data, including remotely sensed data as well as census data from the ground, expenditure of time and costs shall remain low. Guangzhou, one of the biggest cities within the Pearl River Delta, has faced an enormous economic and urban growth during the last three decades. Due to its economical and spatial characteristics it is a promising candidate for urban growth scenarios. The monitoring and prediction of urban growth comprises data of population and give them a spatial representation. The model, originally applied for the Indian city Ahmedabad, is used for urban growth scenarios. Therefore, transferability and confirmability of the model are evaluated. Challenges that may occur by transferring a model for urban growth from one region to another are discussed. With proposing the use of urban remote sensing and freely available data, urban planners shall be fitted with a comprehensible and simple tool to be able to contribute to the future challenge Smart Growth.

The southern megalopolis: using the past to predict the future of urban sprawl in the Southeast U.S.

USGS Publications Warehouse

Terando, Adam; Costanza, Jennifer; Belyea, Curtis; Dunn, Robert R.; McKerrow, Alexa; Collazo, Jaime

2014-01-01

The future health of ecosystems is arguably as dependent on urban sprawl as it is on human-caused climatic warming. Urban sprawl strongly impacts the urban ecosystems it creates and the natural and agro-ecosystems that it displaces and fragments. Here, we project urban sprawl changes for the next 50 years for the fast-growing Southeast U.S. Previous studies have focused on modeling population density, but the urban extent is arguably as important as population density per se in terms of its ecological and conservation impacts. We develop simulations using the SLEUTH urban growth model that complement population-driven models but focus on spatial pattern and extent. To better capture the reach of low-density suburban development, we extend the capabilities of SLEUTH by incorporating street-network information. Our simulations point to a future in which the extent of urbanization in the Southeast is projected to increase by 101% to 192%. Our results highlight areas where ecosystem fragmentation is likely, and serve as a benchmark to explore the challenging tradeoffs between ecosystem health, economic growth and cultural desires.

The Southern Megalopolis: Using the Past to Predict the Future of Urban Sprawl in the Southeast U.S

PubMed Central

Terando, Adam J.; Costanza, Jennifer; Belyea, Curtis; Dunn, Robert R.; McKerrow, Alexa; Collazo, Jaime A.

2014-01-01

The future health of ecosystems is arguably as dependent on urban sprawl as it is on human-caused climatic warming. Urban sprawl strongly impacts the urban ecosystems it creates and the natural and agro-ecosystems that it displaces and fragments. Here, we project urban sprawl changes for the next 50 years for the fast-growing Southeast U.S. Previous studies have focused on modeling population density, but the urban extent is arguably as important as population density per se in terms of its ecological and conservation impacts. We develop simulations using the SLEUTH urban growth model that complement population-driven models but focus on spatial pattern and extent. To better capture the reach of low-density suburban development, we extend the capabilities of SLEUTH by incorporating street-network information. Our simulations point to a future in which the extent of urbanization in the Southeast is projected to increase by 101% to 192%. Our results highlight areas where ecosystem fragmentation is likely, and serve as a benchmark to explore the challenging tradeoffs between ecosystem health, economic growth and cultural desires. PMID:25054329

Model developments in TERRA_URB, the upcoming standard urban parametrization of the atmospheric numerical model COSMO(-CLM)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wouters, Hendrik; Blahak, Ulrich; Helmert, Jürgen; Raschendorfer, Matthias; Demuzere, Matthias; Fay, Barbara; Trusilova, Kristina; Mironov, Dmitrii; Reinert, Daniel; Lüthi, Daniel; Machulskaya, Ekaterina

2015-04-01

In order to address urban climate at the regional scales, a new efficient urban land-surface parametrization TERRA_URB has been developed and coupled to the atmospheric numerical model COSMO-CLM. Hereby, several new advancements for urban land-surface models are introduced which are crucial for capturing the urban surface-energy balance and its seasonal dependency in the mid-latitudes. This includes a new PDF-based water-storage parametrization for impervious land, the representation of radiative absorption and emission by greenhouse gases in the infra-red spectrum in the urban canopy layer, and the inclusion of heat emission from human activity. TERRA_URB has been applied in offline urban-climate studies during European observation campaigns at Basel (BUBBLE), Toulouse (CAPITOUL), and Singapore, and currently applied in online studies for urban areas in Belgium, Germany, Switzerland, Helsinki, Singapore, and Melbourne. Because of its computational efficiency, high accuracy and its to-the-point conceptual easiness, TERRA_URB has been selected to become the standard urban parametrization of the atmospheric numerical model COSMO(-CLM). This allows for better weather forecasts for temperature and precipitation in cities with COSMO, and an improved assessment of urban outdoor hazards in the context of global climate change and urban expansion with COSMO-CLM. We propose additional extensions to TERRA_URB towards a more robust representation of cities over the world including their structural design. In a first step, COSMO's standard EXTernal PARarameter (EXTPAR) tool is updated for representing the cities into the land cover over the entire globe. Hereby, global datasets in the standard EXTPAR tool are used to retrieve the 'Paved' or 'sealed' surface Fraction (PF) referring to the presence of buildings and streets. Furthermore, new global data sets are incorporated in EXTPAR for describing the Anthropogenic Heat Flux (AHF) due to human activity, and optionally the Surface Area Index (SAI) derived from the Floor Space Index (FSI). In a second step, it is focussed on the urban/rural contrast in terms of turbulent transport in the surface layer by means of model sensivity experiments: On the theoretical basis of the TKE-based surface-layer transfer scheme of COSMO, we investigate the consistency between empirical functions for thermal roughness lengths and the urban/rural canopy morphology.

Characterization and spatial modeling of urban sprawl in the Wuhan Metropolitan Area, China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zeng, Chen; Liu, Yaolin; Stein, Alfred; Jiao, Limin

2015-02-01

Urban sprawl has led to environmental problems and large losses of arable land in China. In this study, we monitor and model urban sprawl by means of a combination of remote sensing, geographical information system and spatial statistics. We use time-series data to explore the potential socio-economic driving forces behind urban sprawl, and spatial models in different scenarios to explore the spatio-temporal interactions. The methodology is applied to the city of Wuhan, China, for the period from 1990 to 2013. The results reveal that the built-up land has expanded and has dispersed in urban clusters. Population growth, and economic and transportation development are still the main causes of urban sprawl; however, when they have developed to certain levels, the area affected by construction in urban areas (Jian Cheng Qu (JCQ)) and the area of cultivated land (ACL) tend to be stable. Spatial regression models are shown to be superior to the traditional models. The interaction among districts with the same administrative status is stronger than if one of those neighbors is in the city center and the other in the suburban area. The expansion of urban built-up land is driven by the socio-economic development at the same period, and greatly influenced by its spatio-temporal neighbors. We conclude that the integration of remote sensing, a geographical information system, and spatial statistics offers an excellent opportunity to explore the spatio-temporal variation and interactions among the districts in the sprawling metropolitan areas. Relevant regulations to control the urban sprawl process are suggested accordingly.

Fluid Mechanics of Urban Environments

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fernando, Harindra J.

2008-11-01

The rapid urbanization of the Earth has led to highly populated cities that act as concentrated centers of anthropogenic stressors on the natural environment. The degradation of environmental quality due to such stressors, in turn, greatly impacts human behavior. Anthropogenic stressors largely originate as a result of coupling between man-made urban elements (i.e., networks of engineering and socio-economic infrastructures) and the environment, for which surrounding fluid motions play a key role. In recent years, research efforts have been directed at the understanding and modeling of fluid motions in urban areas, infrastructure dynamics and interactions thereof, with the hope of identifying environmental impacts of urbanization and complex outcomes (or ``emergent properties'') of nominally simple interactions between infrastructures and environment. Such consequences play an important role in determining the ``resilience'' of cities under anthropogenic stressors, defined as maintaining the structure and essential functions of an urbanity without regime shifts. Holistic integrated models that meld the dynamics of infrastructures and environment as well as ``quality of life'' attributes are becoming powerful decision-making tools with regard to sustainability of urban areas (continuance or even enhancement of socio-economic activities in harmony with the environment). The rudimentary forms of integrated models are beginning to take shape, augmented by comprehensive field studies and advanced measurement platforms to validate them. This presentation deals with the challenges of modeling urban atmosphere, subject to anthropogenic forcing. An important emergent property, the Urban Heat Island, and its role in determining resilience and sustainability of cities will be discussed based on the prediction of a coupled model.

The impact of urban open space and 'lift-up' building design on building intake fraction and daily pollutant exposure in idealized urban models.

PubMed

Sha, Chenyuan; Wang, Xuemei; Lin, Yuanyuan; Fan, Yifan; Chen, Xi; Hang, Jian

2018-08-15

Sustainable urban design is an effective way to improve urban ventilation and reduce vehicular pollutant exposure to urban residents. This paper investigated the impacts of urban open space and 'lift-up' building design on vehicular CO (carbon monoxide) exposure in typical three-dimensional (3D) urban canopy layer (UCL) models under neutral atmospheric conditions. The building intake fraction (IF) represents the fraction of total vehicular pollutant emissions inhaled by residents when they stay at home. The building daily CO exposure (E t ) means the extent of human beings' contact with CO within one day indoor at home. Computational fluid dynamics (CFD) simulations integrating with these two concepts were performed to solve turbulent flow and assess vehicular CO exposure to urban residents. CFD technique with the standard k-ε model was successfully validated by wind tunnel data. The initial numerical UCL model consists of 5-row and 5-column (5×5) cubic buildings (building height H=street width W=30m) with four approaching wind directions (θ=0°, 15°, 30°, 45°). In Group I, one of the 25 building models is removed to attain urban open space settings. In Group II, the first floor (Lift-up1), or second floor (Lift-up2), or third floor (Lift-up3) of all buildings is elevated respectively to create wind pathways through buildings. Compared to the initial case, urban open space can slightly or significantly reduce pollutant exposure for urban residents. As θ=30° and 45°, open space settings are more effective to reduce pollutant exposure than θ=0° and 15°.The pollutant dilution near or surrounding open space and in its adjacent downstream regions is usually enhanced. Lift-up1 and Lift-up2 experience much greater pollutant exposure reduction in all wind directions than Lift-up3 and open space. Although further investigations are still required to provide practical guidelines, this study is one of the first attempts for reducing urban pollutant exposure by improving urban design. Copyright © 2018. Published by Elsevier B.V.

Regional climate model assessment of the urban land-surface forcing over central Europe

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Huszar, P.; Halenka, T.; Belda, M.; Zak, M.; Sindelarova, K.; Miksovsky, J.

2014-07-01

For the purpose of qualifying and quantifying the climate impact of cities and urban surfaces in general on climate of central Europe, the surface parameterization in regional climate model RegCM4 has been extended with the Single Layer Urban Canopy Model (SLUCM). A set of experiments was performed over the period of 2005-2009 for central Europe, either without considering urban surfaces or with the SLUCM treatment. Results show a statistically significant impact of urbanized surfaces on temperature (up to 1.5 K increase in summer) as well as on the boundary layer height (increases up to 50 m). Urbanization further influences surface wind with a winter decrease up to -0.6 m s-1, though both increases and decreases were detected in summer depending on the location relative to the cities and daytime (changes up to 0.3 m s-1). Urban surfaces significantly reduce evaporation and thus the humidity over the surface. This impacts the simulated summer precipitation rate, showing decrease over cities up to -2 mm day-1. Significant temperature increases are simulated over higher elevations as well, not only within the urban canopy layer. With the urban parameterization, the climate model better describes the diurnal temperature variation, reducing the cold afternoon and evening bias of RegCM4. Sensitivity experiments were carried out to quantify the response of the meteorological conditions to changes in the parameters specific to the urban environment such as street width, building height, albedo of the roofs and anthropogenic heat release. The results proved to be rather robust and the choice of the key SLUCM parameters impacts them only slightly (mainly temperature, boundary layer height and wind velocity). Statistically significant impacts are modeled not only over large urbanized areas, but the influence of the cities is also evident over rural areas without major urban surfaces. It is shown that this is the result of the combined effect of the distant influence of the cities and the influence of the minor local urban surface coverage.

Regional climate model assessment of the urban land-surface forcing over central Europe

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Huszar, P.; Halenka, T.; Belda, M.; Zak, M.; Sindelarova, K.; Miksovsky, J.

2014-11-01

For the purpose of qualifying and quantifying the climate impact of cities and urban surfaces in general on climate of central Europe, the surface parameterization in regional climate model RegCM4 has been extended with the Single-layer Urban Canopy Model (SLUCM). A set of experiments was performed over the period of 2005-2009 for central Europe, either without considering urban surfaces or with the SLUCM treatment. Results show a statistically significant impact of urbanized surfaces on temperature (up to 1.5 K increase in summer) as well as on the boundary layer height (increases up to 50 m). Urbanization further influences surface wind with a winter decrease up to -0.6 m s-1, though both increases and decreases were detected in summer depending on the location relative to the cities and daytime (changes up to 0.3 m s-1). Urban surfaces significantly reduce the humidity over the surface. This impacts the simulated summer precipitation rate, showing a decrease over cities of up to -2 mm day-1. Significant temperature increases are simulated over higher altitudes as well, not only within the urban canopy layer. With the urban parameterization, the climate model better describes the diurnal temperature variation, reducing the cold afternoon and evening bias of RegCM4. Sensitivity experiments were carried out to quantify the response of the meteorological conditions to changes in the parameters specific to the urban environment, such as street width, building height, albedo of the roofs and anthropogenic heat release. The results proved to be rather robust and the choice of the key SLUCM parameters impacts them only slightly (mainly temperature, boundary layer height and wind velocity). Statistically significant impacts are modelled not only over large urbanized areas, but the influence of the cities is also evident over rural areas without major urban surfaces. It is shown that this is the result of the combined effect of the distant influence of the cities and the influence of the minor local urban surface coverage.

Predicting the effect of urban noise on the active space of avian vocal signals.

PubMed

Parris, Kirsten M; McCarthy, Michael A

2013-10-01

Urbanization changes the physical environment of nonhuman species but also markedly changes their acoustic environment. Urban noise interferes with acoustic communication in a range of animals, including birds, with potentially profound impacts on fitness. However, a mechanistic theory to predict which species of birds will be most affected by urban noise is lacking. We develop a mathematical model to predict the decrease in the active space of avian vocal signals after moving from quiet forest habitats to noisy urban habitats. We find that the magnitude of the decrease is largely a function of signal frequency. However, this relationship is not monotonic. A metaregression of observed increases in the frequency of birdsong in urban noise supports the model's predictions for signals with frequencies between 1.5 and 4 kHz. Using results of the metaregression and the model described above, we show that the expected gain in active space following observed frequency shifts is up to 12% and greatest for birds with signals at the lower end of this frequency range. Our generally applicable model, along with three predictions regarding the behavioral and population-level responses of birds to urban noise, represents an important step toward a theory of acoustic communication in urban habitats.

Urban-rural differences in self-reported limiting long-term illness in Scotland.

PubMed

Levin, Kate A

2003-12-01

Previous research suggests that there are significant differences in health between urban and rural areas. The aim of this study is to describe the pattern and magnitude of urban-rural variation in health in Scotland and to examine the factors associated with health inequalities in urban and rural areas. The data used in this study were limiting long-term illness (LLTI) and socio-economic data collected by the 1991 Census. A rurality indicator was created using Scottish Household Survey rurality classifications. Multilevel Poisson regression modelling was carried out with LLTI as a health indicator for each type of rurality within Scotland. A variety of socio-economic factors were investigated for each rurality. Areas with the highest Standardized Illness Ratios (SIRs) (>125) are predominantly urban whereas the lowest SIRs (<75) are found in both urban and rural areas. Rural communities are more heterogeneous than urban areas in terms of their social make-up with relation to health; however, when these areas are split according to minor road length and different socio-economic factors are added, the model fit for each new model is improved and the reduction in total variation is comparable with that of the urban models. These findings suggest that rural areas should not be treated as a homogeneous group but should be subdivided into rural types.

Improving the capability of an integrated CA-Markov model to simulate spatio-temporal urban growth trends using an Analytical Hierarchy Process and Frequency Ratio

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Aburas, Maher Milad; Ho, Yuek Ming; Ramli, Mohammad Firuz; Ash'aari, Zulfa Hanan

2017-07-01

The creation of an accurate simulation of future urban growth is considered one of the most important challenges in urban studies that involve spatial modeling. The purpose of this study is to improve the simulation capability of an integrated CA-Markov Chain (CA-MC) model using CA-MC based on the Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP) and CA-MC based on Frequency Ratio (FR), both applied in Seremban, Malaysia, as well as to compare the performance and accuracy between the traditional and hybrid models. Various physical, socio-economic, utilities, and environmental criteria were used as predictors, including elevation, slope, soil texture, population density, distance to commercial area, distance to educational area, distance to residential area, distance to industrial area, distance to roads, distance to highway, distance to railway, distance to power line, distance to stream, and land cover. For calibration, three models were applied to simulate urban growth trends in 2010; the actual data of 2010 were used for model validation utilizing the Relative Operating Characteristic (ROC) and Kappa coefficient methods Consequently, future urban growth maps of 2020 and 2030 were created. The validation findings confirm that the integration of the CA-MC model with the FR model and employing the significant driving force of urban growth in the simulation process have resulted in the improved simulation capability of the CA-MC model. This study has provided a novel approach for improving the CA-MC model based on FR, which will provide powerful support to planners and decision-makers in the development of future sustainable urban planning.

Modeling the Ecosystem Services Provided by Trees in Urban Ecosystems: Using Biome-BGC to Improve i-Tree Eco

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Brown, Molly E.; McGroddy, Megan; Spence, Caitlin; Flake, Leah; Sarfraz, Amna; Nowak, David J.; Milesi, Cristina

2012-01-01

As the world becomes increasingly urban, the need to quantify the effect of trees in urban environments on energy usage, air pollution, local climate and nutrient run-off has increased. By identifying, quantifying and valuing the ecological activity that provides services in urban areas, stronger policies and improved quality of life for urban residents can be obtained. Here we focus on two radically different models that can be used to characterize urban forests. The i-Tree Eco model (formerly UFORE model) quantifies ecosystem services (e.g., air pollution removal, carbon storage) and values derived from urban trees based on field measurements of trees and local ancillary data sets. Biome-BGC (Biome BioGeoChemistry) is used to simulate the fluxes and storage of carbon, water, and nitrogen in natural environments. This paper compares i-Tree Eco's methods to those of Biome-BGC, which estimates the fluxes and storage of energy, carbon, water and nitrogen for vegetation and soil components of the ecosystem. We describe the two models and their differences in the way they calculate similar properties, with a focus on carbon and nitrogen. Finally, we discuss the implications of further integration of these two communities for land managers such as those in Maryland.

An ecohydrologic model for a shallow groundwater urban environment.

PubMed

Arden, Sam; Ma, Xin Cissy; Brown, Mark

2014-01-01

The urban environment is a patchwork of natural and artificial surfaces that results in complex interactions with and impacts to natural hydrologic cycles. Evapotranspiration is a major hydrologic flow that is often altered through urbanization, although the mechanisms of change are sometimes difficult to tease out due to difficulty in effectively simulating soil-plant-atmosphere interactions. This paper introduces a simplified yet realistic model that is a combination of existing surface runoff and ecohydrology models designed to increase the quantitative understanding of complex urban hydrologic processes. Results demonstrate that the model is capable of simulating the long-term variability of major hydrologic fluxes as a function of impervious surface, temperature, water table elevation, canopy interception, soil characteristics, precipitation and complex mechanisms of plant water uptake. These understandings have potential implications for holistic urban water system management.

Impact of Land Use/Land Cover Conditions on WRF Model Evaluation for Heat Island Assessment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bhati, S.; Mohan, M.

2017-12-01

Urban heat island effect has been assessed using Weather Research and Forecasting model (WRF v3.5) focusing on air temperature and surface skin temperature in the sub-tropical urban Indian megacity of Delhi. Impact of urbanization related changes in land use/land cover (LULC) on model outputs has been analyzed. Four simulations have been carried out with different types of LULC data viz. (1) USGS , (2) MODIS, (3) user-modified USGS and (4) user modified land use data coupled with urban canopy model (UCM) for incorporation of canopy features. Heat island intensities have been estimated based on these simulations and subsequently compared with those derived from in-situ and satellite observations. There is a significant improvement in model performance with modification of LULC and inclusion of UCM. Overall, RMSEs for near surface temperature improved from 6.3°C to 3.9°C and index of agreement for mean urban heat island intensities (UHI) improved from 0.4 to 0.7 with modified land use coupled with UCM. In general, model is able to capture the magnitude of UHI as well as high UHI zones well. The study highlights the importance of appropriate and updated representation of landuse-landcover and urban canopies for improving predictive capabilities of the mesoscale models.

A microscale three-dimensional urban energy balance model for studying surface temperatures

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Krayenhoff, E. Scott; Voogt, James A.

2007-06-01

A microscale three-dimensional (3-D) urban energy balance model, Temperatures of Urban Facets in 3-D (TUF-3D), is developed to predict urban surface temperatures for a variety of surface geometries and properties, weather conditions, and solar angles. The surface is composed of plane-parallel facets: roofs, walls, and streets, which are further sub-divided into identical square patches, resulting in a 3-D raster-type model geometry. The model code is structured into radiation, conduction and convection sub-models. The radiation sub-model uses the radiosity approach and accounts for multiple reflections and shading of direct solar radiation. Conduction is solved by finite differencing of the heat conduction equation, and convection is modelled by empirically relating patch heat transfer coefficients to the momentum forcing and the building morphology. The radiation and conduction sub-models are tested individually against measurements, and the complete model is tested against full-scale urban surface temperature and energy balance observations. Modelled surface temperatures perform well at both the facet-average and the sub-facet scales given the precision of the observations and the uncertainties in the model inputs. The model has several potential applications, such as the calculation of radiative loads, and the investigation of effective thermal anisotropy (when combined with a sensor-view model).

Simulation of Urban Heat Island Mitigation Strategies in Atlanta, GA Using High-Resolution Land Use/Land Cover Data Set to Enhance Meteorological Modeling

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Crosson, William L.; Dembek, Scott; Estes, Maurice G., Jr.; Limaye, Ashutosh S.; Lapenta, William; Quattrochi, Dale A.; Johnson, Hoyt; Khan, Maudood

2006-01-01

The specification of land use/land cover (LULC) and associated land surface parameters in meteorological models at all scales has a major influence on modeled surface energy fluxes and boundary layer states. In urban areas, accurate representation of the land surface may be even more important than in undeveloped regions due to the large heterogeneity within the urban area. Deficiencies in the characterization of the land surface related to the spatial or temporal resolution of the data, the number of LULC classes defined, the accuracy with which they are defined, or the degree of heterogeneity of the land surface properties within each class may degrade the performance of the models. In this study, an experiment was conducted to test a new high-resolution LULC data set for meteorological simulations for the Atlanta, Georgia metropolitan area using a mesoscale meteorological model and to evaluate the effects of urban heat island (UHI) mitigation strategies on modeled meteorology for 2030. Simulation results showed that use of the new LULC data set reduced a major deficiency of the land use data used previously, specifically the poor representation of urban and suburban land use. Performance of the meteorological model improved substantially, with the overall daytime cold bias reduced by over 30%. UHI mitigation strategies were projected to offset much of a predicted urban warming between 2000 and 2030. In fact, for the urban core, the cooling due to UHI mitigation strategies was slightly greater than the warming associated with urbanization over this period. For the larger metropolitan area, cooling only partially offset the projected warming trend.

Ca-Pri a Cellular Automata Phenomenological Research Investigation: Simulation Results

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Iannone, G.; Troisi, A.

2013-05-01

Following the introduction of a phenomenological cellular automata (CA) model capable to reproduce city growth and urban sprawl, we develop a toy model simulation considering a realistic framework. The main characteristic of our approach is an evolution algorithm based on inhabitants preferences. The control of grown cells is obtained by means of suitable functions which depend on the initial condition of the simulation. New born urban settlements are achieved by means of a logistic evolution of the urban pattern while urban sprawl is controlled by means of the population evolution function. In order to compare model results with a realistic urban framework we have considered, as the area of study, the island of Capri (Italy) in the Mediterranean Sea. Two different phases of the urban evolution on the island have been taken into account: a new born initial growth as induced by geographic suitability and the simulation of urban spread after 1943 induced by the population evolution after this date.

Urban compaction vs city sprawl: impact of road traffic on air quality in the greater Paris

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Etuman Arthur, Elessa; Isabelle, Coll; Vincent, Viguie; Nicolas, Coulombel; Julie, Prud'homme

2017-04-01

Urban pollution remains a major sanitary and economic concern. In France, particulate pollution is known to cause 48,000 premature deaths every year (Santé Publique France, 2016), while the economic cost of air pollution reaches almost 25 billion euros per year (CGDD, 2012). In the Greater Paris, despite strengthened emission standards, restricted traffic areas, car-sharing and incentives for electric vehicle use, road transport plays a substantial role in the exposure of inhabitants to high levels of pollutants. In this context, urban planning could possibly constitute an innovative strategy to reduce emissions from road traffic, through its actions on transport demand, travel distances, modal shift (public transportation, cycling, walking...) or even proximity to emitters. We have developed a multi-scalar modeling of urban pollution by coupling an urban economic growth model NEDUM (CIRED), a model for urban mobility (LISA), a traffic emission model (LISA) and the CHIMERE Chemistry-Transport model (CTM) for air quality simulation (LISA). The innovative aspect of this modeling system is to integrate into a classic CTM the mechanisms underlying the dynamics of an urban system. This way, we establish a quantitative and comprehensive link between a given urban scenario, the associated public and individual transport matrix, and local air quality. We then make it possible to highlight the levers of energy consumption reductions inside compact or sprawled cities. We have been working on the Ile de France region (centered on the Paris agglomeration) which relies on a broad urban structure of megacity, a high density of housing and an expanding urban peripheral zone, clearly raising the issue of transport demand, mobility and traffic congestion. Two scenarios, considering opposite urban development policies from the 1960s to 2010, have been simulated over the whole modelling chain. The first one promotes a dense and compact city while the second favors city spread, though restricted by a green belt. In our results, we compare the local air quality simulated in these scenarios with our reference situation (the current 2010 situation). The spreading or densification of the city contribute a little to the air quality and therefore a reflection on a real mix of the urban canvas is probably an influencing factor for the reduction of the motorized mobility. We should also consider more advanced scenarios (in the course of production) for the reduction of individual transport like encouraging car-pooling, which has a maximum daily trip reduction potential of 16% in urban areas (CGDD, 2014).

GEOGRAPHICAL INFORMATION SYSTEM, DECISION SUPPORT SYSTEMS, AND URBAN STORMWATER MANAGEMENT

EPA Science Inventory

The full report reviews the application of Geographic Inforamtion System (GIS) technology to the field of urban stormwater modeling. The GIS literature is reviewed in the context of its use as a spatial database for urban stormwater modeling, integration of GIS and hydroloic time...

AVIRIS data and neural networks applied to an urban ecosystem

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Ridd, Merrill K.; Ritter, Niles D.; Bryant, Nevin A.; Green, Robert O.

1992-01-01

Urbanization is expanding on every continent. Although urban/industrial areas occupy a small percentage of the total landscape of the earth, their influence extends far beyond their borders, affecting terrestrial, aquatic, and atmospheric systems globally. Yet little has been done to characterize urban ecosystems of their linkages to other systems horizontally or vertically. With remote sensing we now have the tools to characterize, monitor, and model urban landscapes world-wide. However, the remote sensing performed on cities so far has concentrated on land-use patterns as distinct from land-cover or composition. The popular Anderson system is entirely land-use oriented in urban areas. This paper begins with the premise that characterizing the biophysical composition of urban environments is fundamental to understanding urban/industrial ecosystems, and, in turn, supports the modeling of other systems interfacing with urban systems. Further, it is contended that remote sensing is a tool poised to provide the biophysical composition data to characterize urban landscapes.

On the Nexus of the Spatial Dynamics of Global Urbanization and the Age of the City

PubMed Central

Scheuer, Sebastian; Haase, Dagmar; Volk, Martin

2016-01-01

A number of concepts exist regarding how urbanization can be described as a process. Understanding this process that affects billions of people and its future development in a spatial manner is imperative to address related issues such as human quality of life. In the focus of spatially explicit studies on urbanization is typically a city, a particular urban region, an agglomeration. However, gaps remain in spatially explicit global models. This paper addresses that issue by examining the spatial dynamics of urban areas over time, for a full coverage of the world. The presented model identifies past, present and potential future hotspots of urbanization as a function of an urban area's spatial variation and age, whose relation could be depicted both as a proxy and as a path of urban development. PMID:27490199

On the Nexus of the Spatial Dynamics of Global Urbanization and the Age of the City.

PubMed

Scheuer, Sebastian; Haase, Dagmar; Volk, Martin

2016-01-01

A number of concepts exist regarding how urbanization can be described as a process. Understanding this process that affects billions of people and its future development in a spatial manner is imperative to address related issues such as human quality of life. In the focus of spatially explicit studies on urbanization is typically a city, a particular urban region, an agglomeration. However, gaps remain in spatially explicit global models. This paper addresses that issue by examining the spatial dynamics of urban areas over time, for a full coverage of the world. The presented model identifies past, present and potential future hotspots of urbanization as a function of an urban area's spatial variation and age, whose relation could be depicted both as a proxy and as a path of urban development.

A prediction model of signal degradation in LMSS for urban areas

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Matsudo, Takashi; Minamisono, Kenichi; Karasawa, Yoshio; Shiokawa, Takayasu

1993-01-01

A prediction model of signal degradation in a Land Mobile Satellite Service (LMSS) for urban areas is proposed. This model treats shadowing effects caused by buildings statistically and can predict a Cumulative Distribution Function (CDF) of signal diffraction losses in urban areas as a function of system parameters such as frequency and elevation angle and environmental parameters such as number of building stories and so on. In order to examine the validity of the model, we compared the percentage of locations where diffraction losses were smaller than 6 dB obtained by the CDF with satellite visibility measured by a radiometer. As a result, it was found that this proposed model is useful for estimating the feasibility of providing LMSS in urban areas.

A coupled model approach to reduce nonpoint-source pollution resulting from predicted urban growth: A case study in the Ambos Nogales watershed

USGS Publications Warehouse

Norman, L.M.; Guertin, D.P.; Feller, M.

2008-01-01

The development of new approaches for understanding processes of urban development and their environmental effects, as well as strategies for sustainable management, is essential in expanding metropolitan areas. This study illustrates the potential of linking urban growth and watershed models to identify problem areas and support long-term watershed planning. Sediment is a primary source of nonpoint-source pollution in surface waters. In urban areas, sediment is intermingled with other surface debris in transport. In an effort to forecast the effects of development on surface-water quality, changes predicted in urban areas by the SLEUTH urban growth model were applied in the context of erosion-sedimentation models (Universal Soil Loss Equation and Spatially Explicit Delivery Models). The models are used to simulate the effect of excluding hot-spot areas of erosion and sedimentation from future urban growth and to predict the impacts of alternative erosion-control scenarios. Ambos Nogales, meaning 'both Nogaleses,' is a name commonly used for the twin border cities of Nogales, Arizona and Nogales, Sonora, Mexico. The Ambos Nogales watershed has experienced a decrease in water quality as a result of urban development in the twin-city area. Population growth rates in Ambos Nogales are high and the resources set in place to accommodate the rapid population influx will soon become overburdened. Because of its remote location and binational governance, monitoring and planning across the border is compromised. One scenario described in this research portrays an improvement in water quality through the identification of high-risk areas using models that simulate their protection from development and replanting with native grasses, while permitting the predicted and inevitable growth elsewhere. This is meant to add to the body of knowledge about forecasting the impact potential of urbanization on sediment delivery to streams for sustainable development, which can be accomplished in a virtual environment. Copyright ?? 2008 by Bellwether Publishing, Ltd. All rights reserved.

Characterization and Low-Dimensional Modeling of Urban Fluid Flow

DTIC Science & Technology

2014-10-06

4 2 Wind Tunnel , Apparatus and Data Processing 7 2.1 Modelling of the Atmospheric Boundary Layer...was demonstrated. Most notably, wind tunnel experiments were performed at a number of different angles of incidence, providing for the first time a...Coceal and Belcher [2004] developed an urban canopy model for mean winds in urban areas that compares well with data from wind tunnel experiments

iTree-Hydro: Snow hydrology update for the urban forest hydrology model

Treesearch

Yang Yang; Theodore A. Endreny; David J. Nowak

2011-01-01

This article presents snow hydrology updates made to iTree-Hydro, previously called the Urban Forest Effects—Hydrology model. iTree-Hydro Version 1 was a warm climate model developed by the USDA Forest Service to provide a process-based planning tool with robust water quantity and quality predictions given data limitations common to most urban areas. Cold climate...

Multilevel Hierarchical Modeling of Benthic Macroinvertebrate Responses to Urbanization in Nine Metropolitan Regions across the Conterminous United States

USGS Publications Warehouse

Kashuba, Roxolana; Cha, YoonKyung; Alameddine, Ibrahim; Lee, Boknam; Cuffney, Thomas F.

2010-01-01

Multilevel hierarchical modeling methodology has been developed for use in ecological data analysis. The effect of urbanization on stream macroinvertebrate communities was measured across a gradient of basins in each of nine metropolitan regions across the conterminous United States. The hierarchical nature of this dataset was harnessed in a multi-tiered model structure, predicting both invertebrate response at the basin scale and differences in invertebrate response at the region scale. Ordination site scores, total taxa richness, Ephemeroptera, Plecoptera, Trichoptera (EPT) taxa richness, and richness-weighted mean tolerance of organisms at a site were used to describe invertebrate responses. Percentage of urban land cover was used as a basin-level predictor variable. Regional mean precipitation, air temperature, and antecedent agriculture were used as region-level predictor variables. Multilevel hierarchical models were fit to both levels of data simultaneously, borrowing statistical strength from the complete dataset to reduce uncertainty in regional coefficient estimates. Additionally, whereas non-hierarchical regressions were only able to show differing relations between invertebrate responses and urban intensity separately for each region, the multilevel hierarchical regressions were able to explain and quantify those differences within a single model. In this way, this modeling approach directly establishes the importance of antecedent agricultural conditions in masking the response of invertebrates to urbanization in metropolitan regions such as Milwaukee-Green Bay, Wisconsin; Denver, Colorado; and Dallas-Fort Worth, Texas. Also, these models show that regions with high precipitation, such as Atlanta, Georgia; Birmingham, Alabama; and Portland, Oregon, start out with better regional background conditions of invertebrates prior to urbanization but experience faster negative rates of change with urbanization. Ultimately, this urbanization-invertebrate response example is used to detail the multilevel hierarchical construction methodology, showing how the result is a set of models that are both statistically more rigorous and ecologically more interpretable than simple linear regression models.

Removal of Ozone by Urban and Peri-Urban Forests: Evidence from Laboratory, Field, and Modeling Approaches

Treesearch

Carlo Calfapietra; Arianna Morani; Gregorio Sgrigna; Sara Di Giovanni; Valerio Muzzini; Emanuele Pallozzi; Gabriele Guidolotti; David Nowak; Silvano Fares

2016-01-01

A crucial issue in urban environments is the interaction between urban trees and atmospheric pollution, particularly ozone (O3). Ozone represents one of the most harmful pollutants in urban and peri-urban environments, especially in warm climates. Besides the large interest in reducing anthropogenic and biogenic precursors of O3...

Modeling Impact of Urbanization in US Cities Using Simple Biosphere Model SiB2

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Zhang, Ping; Bounoua, Lahouari; Thome, Kurtis; Wolfe, Robert

2016-01-01

We combine Landsat- and the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS)-based products, as well as climate drivers from Phase 2 of the North American Land Data Assimilation System (NLDAS-2) in a Simple Biosphere land surface model (SiB2) to assess the impact of urbanization in continental USA (excluding Alaska and Hawaii). More than 300 cities and their surrounding suburban and rural areas are defined in this study to characterize the impact of urbanization on surface climate including surface energy, carbon budget, and water balance. These analyses reveal an uneven impact of urbanization across the continent that should inform upon policy options for improving urban growth including heat mitigation and energy use, carbon sequestration and flood prevention.

A Sensitivity Model (SM) approach to analyze urban development in Taiwan based on sustainability indicators

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Huang Shuli; Yeh Chiatsung; Budd, William W.

2009-02-15

Sustainability indicators have been widely developed to monitor and assess sustainable development. They are expected to guide political decision-making based on their capability to represent states and trends of development. However, using indicators to assess the sustainability of urban strategies and policies has limitations - as they neither reflect the systemic interactions among them, nor provide normative indications in what direction they should be developed. This paper uses a semi-quantitative systematic model tool (Sensitivity Model Tools, SM) to analyze the role of urban development in Taiwan's sustainability. The results indicate that the natural environment in urban area is one ofmore » the most critical components and the urban economic production plays a highly active role in affecting Taiwan's sustainable development. The semi-quantitative simulation model integrates sustainability indicators and urban development policy to provide decision-makers with information about the impacts of their decisions on urban development. The system approach incorporated by this paper can be seen as a necessary, but not sufficient, condition for a sustainability assessment. The participatory process of expert participants for providing judgments on the relations between indicator variables is also discussed.« less

A model-based evaluation of the impacts of urban expansion on flow variability and aquatic biodiversity in the Big River watershed in eastern Missouri (Invited)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Knouft, J.; Chu, M. L.

2013-12-01

Natural flow regimes in aquatic systems sustain biodiversity and provide support for basic ecological processes. Nevertheless, the hydrology of aquatic systems is heavily impacted by human activities including land use changes associated with urbanization. Small increases in urban expansion can greatly increase surface runoff while decreasing infiltration. These changes in land use can also affect aquifer recharge and alter streamflow, thus impacting water quality, aquatic biodiversity, and ecosystem productivity. However, there are few studies predicting the effects of various levels of urbanization on flow regimes and the subsequent impacts of these flow alterations on ecosystem endpoints at the watershed scale. We quantified the potential effects of varying degrees of urban expansion on the discharge, velocity, and water depth in the Big River watershed in eastern Missouri using a physically-based watershed model, MIKE-SHE, and a 1D hydrodynamic river model, MIKE-11. Five land cover scenarios corresponding to increasing levels of urban expansion were used to determine the sensitivity of flow in the Big River watershed to increasing urbanization. Results indicate that the frequency of low flow events decreases as urban expansion increases, while the frequency of average and high-flow events increases as urbanization increases. We used current estimates of flow from the MIKE-SHE model to predict variation in fish species richness at 44 sites across the watershed based on standardized fish collections from each site. This model was then used with flow estimates from the urban expansion hydrological models to predict potential changes in fish species richness as urban areas increase. Responses varied among sites with some areas predicted to experience increases in species richness while others are predicted to experience decreases in species richness. Taxonomic identity of species also appeared to influence results with the number of species of Cyprinidae (minnows) expected to increase across the watershed, while the number of species of Centrachidae (bass and sunfish) is expected to decrease across the watershed.

Global distribution of urban parameters derived from high-resolution global datasets for weather modelling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kawano, N.; Varquez, A. C. G.; Dong, Y.; Kanda, M.

2016-12-01

Numerical model such as Weather Research and Forecasting model coupled with single-layer Urban Canopy Model (WRF-UCM) is one of the powerful tools to investigate urban heat island. Urban parameters such as average building height (Have), plain area index (λp) and frontal area index (λf), are necessary inputs for the model. In general, these parameters are uniformly assumed in WRF-UCM but this leads to unrealistic urban representation. Distributed urban parameters can also be incorporated into WRF-UCM to consider a detail urban effect. The problem is that distributed building information is not readily available for most megacities especially in developing countries. Furthermore, acquiring real building parameters often require huge amount of time and money. In this study, we investigated the potential of using globally available satellite-captured datasets for the estimation of the parameters, Have, λp, and λf. Global datasets comprised of high spatial resolution population dataset (LandScan by Oak Ridge National Laboratory), nighttime lights (NOAA), and vegetation fraction (NASA). True samples of Have, λp, and λf were acquired from actual building footprints from satellite images and 3D building database of Tokyo, New York, Paris, Melbourne, Istanbul, Jakarta and so on. Regression equations were then derived from the block-averaging of spatial pairs of real parameters and global datasets. Results show that two regression curves to estimate Have and λf from the combination of population and nightlight are necessary depending on the city's level of development. An index which can be used to decide which equation to use for a city is the Gross Domestic Product (GDP). On the other hand, λphas less dependence on GDP but indicated a negative relationship to vegetation fraction. Finally, a simplified but precise approximation of urban parameters through readily-available, high-resolution global datasets and our derived regressions can be utilized to estimate a global distribution of urban parameters for later incorporation into a weather model, thus allowing us to acquire a global understanding of urban climate (Global Urban Climatology). Acknowledgment: This research was supported by the Environment Research and Technology Development Fund (S-14) of the Ministry of the Environment, Japan.

CO2 dispersion modelling over Paris region within the CO2-MEGAPARIS project

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lac, C.; Donnelly, R. P.; Masson, V.; Pal, S.; Donier, S.; Queguiner, S.; Tanguy, G.; Ammoura, L.; Xueref-Remy, I.

2012-10-01

Accurate simulation of the spatial and temporal variability of tracer mixing ratios over urban areas is challenging, but essential in order to utilize CO2 measurements in an atmospheric inverse framework to better estimate regional CO2 fluxes. This study investigates the ability of a high-resolution model to simulate meteorological and CO2 fields around Paris agglomeration, during the March field campaign of the CO2-MEGAPARIS project. The mesoscale atmospheric model Meso-NH, running at 2 km horizontal resolution, is coupled with the Town-Energy Balance (TEB) urban canopy scheme and with the Interactions between Soil, Biosphere and Atmosphere CO2-reactive (ISBA-A-gs) surface scheme, allowing a full interaction of CO2 between the surface and the atmosphere. Statistical scores show a good representation of the Urban Heat Island (UHI) and urban-rural contrasts. Boundary layer heights (BLH) at urban, sub-urban and rural sites are well captured, especially the onset time of the BLH increase and its growth rate in the morning, that are essential for tall tower CO2 observatories. Only nocturnal BLH at sub-urban sites are slightly underestimated a few nights, with a bias less than 50 m. At Eiffel tower, the observed spikes of CO2 maxima occur every morning exactly at the time at which the Atmospheric Boundary Layer (ABL) growth reaches the measurement height. The timing of the CO2 cycle is well captured by the model, with only small biases on CO2 concentrations, mainly linked to the misrepresentation of anthropogenic emissions, as the Eiffel site is at the heart of trafic emission sources. At sub-urban ground stations, CO2 measurements exhibit maxima at the beginning and at the end of each night, when the ABL is fully contracted, with a very strong spatio-temporal variability. The CO2 cycle at these sites is generally well reproduced by the model, even if some biases on the nocturnal maxima appear in the Paris plume parly due to small errors on the vertical transport, or in the vicinity of airports due to small errors on the horizontal transport (wind direction). A sensitivity test without urban parameterisation removes UHI and underpredicts nighttime BLH over urban and sub-urban sites, leading to large overestimation of nocturnal CO2 concentration at the sub-urban sites. The agreement of daytime and nighttime BLH and CO2 predictions of the reference simulation over Paris agglomeration demonstrates the potential of using the meso-scale system on urban and sub-urban area in the context of inverse modelling.

CityWaterBalance: Track Flows of Water Through an Urban System

EPA Science Inventory

CityWaterBalance provides a reproducible workflow for studying an urban water system. The network of urban water flows and storages can be modeled and visualized. Any city may be modeled with preassembled data, but data for US cities can be gathered via web services using this p...

A Culturally Responsive Practice Model for Urban Indian Child Welfare Services.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Mindell, Robert; Vidal de Haymes, Maria; Francisco, Dale

2003-01-01

Describes a collaboration among a university, a state child welfare agency, and a Native American community organization to develop a culturally driven practice model for urban, Native American child welfare. Identifies challenges and opportunities in addressing the needs of urban Native American communities. Concludes with principles for…

The Effect of Urban Life on Traditional Values

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Fischer, Claude S.

1975-01-01

Three models are elaborated that predict an association between urbanism and nontraditional behavior. Secondary analysis of American survey data on religiosity, church attendance, and attitudes toward alcohol and birth control confirm the general urbanism-deviance association and suggest the accuracy of the model which regards such behavior as due…

Methods and equations for estimating peak streamflow per square mile in Virginia’s urban basins

USGS Publications Warehouse

Austin, Samuel H.

2014-01-01

Models are presented that describe Virginia urban area annual peak streamflow per square mile based on basin percent urban area and basin drainage area. Equations are provided to estimate Virginia urban peak flow per square mile of basin drainage area in each of the following annual exceedance probability categories: 0.995, 0.99, 0.95, 0.9, 0.8, 0.67, 0.5, 0.43, 0.2, 0.1, 0.04, 0.02, 0.01, 0.005, and 0.002 (recurrence intervals of 1.005, 1.01, 1.05, 1.11, 1.25, 1.49, 2.0, 2.3, 5, 10, 25, 50, 100, 200, and 500 years, respectively). Equations apply to Virginia drainage basins ranging in size from no less than 1.2 mi2 to no more than 2,400 mi2 containing at least 10 percent urban area, and not more than 96 percent urban area. A total of 115 Virginia drainage basins were analyzed. Actual-by-predicted plots and leverage plots for response variables and explanatory variables in each peak-flow annual exceedance probability category indicate robust model fits and significant explanatory power. Equations for 8 of 15 urban peak-flow response surface models yield R-square values greater than 0.8. Relations identified in statistical models, describing significant increases in urban peak stream discharges as basin urban area increases, affirm empirical relations reported in past studies of change in stream discharge, lag times, and physical streamflow processes, most notably those detailed for urban areas in northern Virginia.

The review of some chosen approaches to foresee the development of urban areas. (Polish Title: Przeglad wybranych podejsc w zakresie prognozowania rozwoju obszarow miast)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Radło-Kulisiewicz, M.

2015-12-01

The practical importance of Geographical Information Systems in urban planning and managing of urban areas is becoming much more explicit. Managing small cities usually needs simple GIS spatial analysis tools to support planners' decisions. Otherwise, the urban dynamic is bigger and factors affecting changes in city are combined. These analyses are not sufficient and then a need for more advanced and sophisticated solutions can appear. The aim of this article is to introduce popular techniques for urban modelling and underlying importance of GIS as an environment for creating simple models, which let t easy decisions in creating vision of a city be taken. The Article touches on the following issues related to the planning and management of urban space; from the applicable standards concerning materials planning in Poland, through the possibilities that give us network solutions useful at the municipal and country level, to existing techniques in modelling cities in the world. The background for these questions are the Geographical Information Systems (their role in this respect), that naturally fit into this theme. The ability to analyze multi-source data at different levels of detail, in different variants and ranges, predispose the GIS to environmental urban management. While also taking into account social - economic factors, integrated with GIS predictive modeling techniques, allows us to understand dependencies that navigate complex urban phenomena. City management in an integrated and thoughtful manner and will reduce the costs associated with the expansion of the urban fabric and avoid the chaos of urban development.

Inclusion of an ultraviolet radiation transfer component in an urban forest effects model for predicting tree influences on potential below-canopy exposure to UVB radiation

Treesearch

Gordon M. Heisler; Richard H. Grant; David J. Nowak; Wei Gao; Daniel E. Crane; Jeffery T. Walton

2003-01-01

Evaluating the impact of ultraviolet-B radiation (UVB) on urban populations would be enhanced by improved predictions of the UVB radiation at the level of human activity. This paper reports the status of plans for incorporating a UVB prediction module into an existing Urban Forest Effects (UFORE) model. UFORE currently has modules to quantify urban forest structure,...

Social influence, agent heterogeneity and the emergence of the urban informal sector

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

García-Díaz, César; Moreno-Monroy, Ana I.

2012-02-01

We develop an agent-based computational model in which the urban informal sector acts as a buffer where rural migrants can earn some income while queuing for higher paying modern-sector jobs. In the model, the informal sector emerges as a result of rural-urban migration decisions of heterogeneous agents subject to social influence in the form of neighboring effects of varying strengths. Besides using a multinomial logit choice model that allows for agent idiosyncrasy, explicit agent heterogeneity is introduced in the form of socio-demographic characteristics preferred by modern-sector employers. We find that different combinations of the strength of social influence and the socio-economic composition of the workforce lead to very different urbanization and urban informal sector shares. In particular, moderate levels of social influence and a large proportion of rural inhabitants with preferred socio-demographic characteristics are conducive to a higher urbanization rate and a larger informal sector.

Cells, Agents, and Support Vectors in Interaction - Modeling Urban Sprawl based on Machine Learning and Artificial Intelligence Techniques in a Post-Industrial Region

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rienow, A.; Menz, G.

2015-12-01

Since the beginning of the millennium, artificial intelligence techniques as cellular automata (CA) and multi-agent systems (MAS) have been incorporated into land-system simulations to address the complex challenges of transitions in urban areas as open, dynamic systems. The study presents a hybrid modeling approach for modeling the two antagonistic processes of urban sprawl and urban decline at once. The simulation power of support vector machines (SVM), cellular automata (CA) and multi-agent systems (MAS) are integrated into one modeling framework and applied to the largest agglomeration of Central Europe: the Ruhr. A modified version of SLEUTH (short for Slope, Land-use, Exclusion, Urban, Transport, and Hillshade) functions as the CA component. SLEUTH makes use of historic urban land-use data sets and growth coefficients for the purpose of modeling physical urban expansion. The machine learning algorithm of SVM is applied in order to enhance SLEUTH. Thus, the stochastic variability of the CA is reduced and information about the human and ecological forces driving the local suitability of urban sprawl is incorporated. Subsequently, the supported CA is coupled with the MAS ReHoSh (Residential Mobility and the Housing Market of Shrinking City Systems). The MAS models population patterns, housing prices, and housing demand in shrinking regions based on interactions between household and city agents. Semi-explicit urban weights are introduced as a possibility of modeling from and to the pixel simultaneously. Three scenarios of changing housing preferences reveal the urban development of the region in terms of quantity and location. They reflect the dissemination of sustainable thinking among stakeholders versus the steady dream of owning a house in sub- and exurban areas. Additionally, the outcomes are transferred into a digital petri dish reflecting a synthetic environment with perfect conditions of growth. Hence, the generic growth elements affecting the future face of post-industrial cities are revealed. Finally, the advantages and limitations of linking pixels and people by combining AI and machine learning techniques in a multi-scale geosimulation approach are to be discussed.

Future Urban Climate Projection in A Tropical Megacity Based on Global and Regional Scenarios

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Darmanto, N. S.; Varquez, A. C. G.; Kanda, M.

2017-12-01

Cities in Asian developing countries experience rapid transformation in urban morphology and energy consumption, which correspondingly affects urban climate. Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Model coupled with improved single-layer urban canopy model incorporating realistic distribution of urban parameters and anthropogenic heat emission (AHE) in the tropic Jakarta Greater Area was conducted. Simulation was conducted during the dry months from 2006 to 2015 and agreed well with point and satellite observation. The same technology coupled with pseudo global warming (PGW) method based on representative concentration pathways (RCP) scenario 2.6 and 8.5 was conducted to produce futuristic climate condition in 2050. Projected urban morphology and AHE in 2050s were constructed using regional urban growing model with shared socioeconomic pathways (SSP) among its inputs. Compact future urban configuration, based on SSP1, was coupled to RCP2.6. Unrestrained future urban configuration, based on SSP3, was coupled to RCP8.5. Results show that background warming from RCP 2.6 and 8.5 will increase background temperature by 0.55°C and 1.2°C throughout the region, respectively. Future projection of urban sprawl results to an additional 0.3°C and 0.5°C increase on average, with maximum increase of 1.1°C and 1.3°C due to urban effect for RCP2.6/compact and RCP8.5/unrestrained, respectively. Higher moisture content in urban area is indicated in the future due to higher evaporation. Change in urban roughness is likely affect slower wind velocity in urban area and sea breeze front inland penetration the future compare with current condition. Acknowledgement: This research was supported by the Environment Research and Technology Development Fund (S-14) of the Ministry of the Environment, Japan.

Increasing of Urban Radiation due to Climate Change and Reduction Strategy using Vegetation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Park, C.; Lee, D.; Heo, H. K.; Ahn, S.

2017-12-01

Urban Heat Island (UHI) which means urban air temperature is higher than suburban area is one of the most important environmental issues in Urban. High density of buildings and high ratio of impervious surfaces increases the radiation fluxes in urban canopy. Furthermore, climate change is expected to make UHI even more seriously in the future. Increased irradiation and air temperature cause high amount of short wave and long wave radiation, respectively. This increases net radiation negatively affects heat condition of pedestrian. UHI threatens citizen's health by increasing violence and heat related diseases. For this reason, understanding how much urban radiation will increase in the future, and exploring radiation reduction strategies is important for reducing UHI. In this research, we aim to reveal how the radiation flux in the urban canyon will change as the climate change and determine how much of urban vegetation will be needed to cover this degradation. The study area is a commercial district in Seoul where highly populated area. Due to the high density of buildings and lack of urban vegetation, this area has a poor thermal condition in summer. In this research, we simulate the radiation flux on the ground using multi-layer urban canopy model. Unlike conventionally used urban canopy model to simulate radiation transfer using vertically single layer, the multi-layer model we used here, enables to consider the vertical heterogeneous of buildings and urban vegetation. As a result, net radiation of urban ground will be increase 2.1 W/m² in the 2050s and 2.7 W/m² in the 2100s. And to prevent the increase of radiation, it is revealed that the urban vegetation should by increased by 10%. This research will be valuable in establishing greening planning as a strategy to reduce UHI effect.

Urban amplification of the global warming in Moscow megacity

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kislov, Alexander; Konstantinov, Pavel; Varentsov, Mikhail; Samsonov, Timofey; Gorlach, Irina; Trusilova, Kristina

2015-04-01

Climate changes in the large cities are very important and requires better understanding. The focus of this paper is climate change of the Moscow megacity. Its urban features strongly influence the atmospheric boundary layer above the Moscow agglomeration area and determine the microclimatic features of the local environment, such as urban heat island (UHI). Available meteorological observations within the Moscow urban area and surrounding territory allow us to assess the natural climate variations and human-induced climate warming separately. To obtain more precisely viewing on the UHI structure we have included into the analysis the satellite data (Meteosat-10), providing temperature and humidity profiles with high resolution. To investigate the mechanism of the urban amplification we realized the regional climate model COSMO-CLM+TEB. Apart from detailed climate research the model runs will be planned for climate projecting of Moscow agglomeration area. Climate change differences between urban and rural areas are determined by changes of the shape of the UHI and their relationships with changes of building height and density. Therefore, the urban module of COSMO-CLM+TEB model is fed by information from special GIS database contenting both geometric characteristics of the urban canyons and other characteristics of the urban surface. The sources of information were maps belonging to the OpenStreetMap, and digital elevation models SRTM90 and ASTER GDEM v.2 as well. The multiscale GIS database allows us to generate such kind of information with different spatial resolution (200, 500 and 1000 meters).

Understanding and Predicting Urban Propagation Losses

DTIC Science & Technology

2009-09-01

6. Extended Hata Model ..........................22 7. Modified Hata Model ..........................22 8. Walfisch – Ikegami Model...39 4. COST (Extended) Hata Model ...................40 5. Modified Hata Model ..........................41 6. Walfisch- Ikegami Model...47 1. Scenario One – Walfisch- Ikegami Model ........51 2. Scenario Two – Modified Hata Model ...........52 3. Scenario Three – Urban Hata

The Effects of a Changing Climate and Urbanisation on River Flows in the Thames Basin, UK - a Hydrological Modelling Approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Miller, J. D.; Rickards, N. J.; Kjeldsen, T. R.; Hutchins, M.; Rowland, C.; Prudhomme, C.; Maliko, T.; Fidal, J.; Hagen-Zanker, A.

2016-12-01

The UK population is set to increase by 16% by 2035; it is therefore increasingly important to understand the impact this may have on urban populations, and in turn how this will affect river flow regimes and water quality in urban areas. A growing population is likely to lead to an increase in urban land use and impervious surfaces, the implications of which are not yet fully understood for issues such as future flood risk. The aim of this paper is to develop a greater understanding of the impacts of both an increasing population and urban extent in the context of a changing climate, and to assess the effect these may have on urban streamflow regimes and water security in the future. Flows are modelled for selected catchments in the Thames basin using URBMOD, a lumped rainfall runoff model that is able to represent both pervious and impervious surfaces, reducing infiltration in catchments where there is a greater urban extent. The model uses daily catchment average rainfall and evapotranspiration derived from gridded data, and is calibrated against long-term river flow records. Historic satellite imagery is used to train cellular automata land use models, which are then applied under different scenarios of urban development up to 2035. These changes in land use are combined with a range of climate change scenarios to give an indication of how urban flow regimes may be altered in the Thames basin over the next 20 years. Results suggest an intensification of the hydrological regime in the majority of catchments, with increases in high flow magnitudes (Q10) of up to 5%. The trend for low flows (Q90) is less clear, with some catchments displaying reductions of around 4%, whilst others show slight increased flows. We identify the main drivers behind these changes, from which the fine-scale impacts of urbanisation on water resources can be better understood. Research findings are being used to inform a regional-scale model, coupling water quantity and quality and providing insight to urban planners and stakeholders on the future urban hydrological regime in the Thames basin. Similar approaches are being used to assess impacts of anthropogenic drivers on water resources in the Cauvery basin in India, whereby the applicability of the model under very different climate and urban morphology will be tested.

Impacts of Urbanization in the Coastal Tropical City of San Juan, Puerto Rico

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Comarazamy, Daniel E.; Gonzalez, Jorge E.; Luvall, Jeffrey C.; Rickman, Douglas L.; Mulero, Pedro J.

2007-01-01

Urban sprawl in tropical locations is rapidly accelerating and it is more evident in islands where a large percentage of the population resides along the coasts. This paper focuses on the analysis of the impacts of land use and land cover for urbanization in the tropical coastal city of San Juan, in the Caribbean island of Puerto Rico. A mesoscale numerical model, the Regional Atmospheric Modeling System (RAMS), is used to study the impacts of land use for urbanization in the environment including specific characteristics of the urban heat island in the San Juan Metropolitan Area (SJMA), one of the most noticeable urban cores of the Caribbean. The research also makes use of the observations obtained during the airborne San Juan Atlas Mission. Surface and rawinsonde data from the mission are used to validate the atmospheric model yielding satisfactory results. Airborne high resolution remote sensing data are used to update the model's surface characteristics in order to obtain a more accurate and detailed configuration of the SJMA and perform a climate impact analysis based on land cover/land use (LCLU) changes. The impact analysis showed that the presence of the urban landscape of San Juan has an impact reflected in higher air temperatures over the area occupied by the city, with positive values of up to 2.5 C, for the simulations that have specified urban LCLU indexes in the model's bottom boundary. One interesting result of the impact analysis was the finding of a precipitation disturbance shown as a difference in total accumulated rainfall between the present urban landscape and with a potential natural vegetation, apparently induced by the presence of the urban area. Results indicate that the urban enhanced cloud formation and precipitation development occur mainly downwind of the city, including the accumulated precipitation. This spatial pattern can be explained by the presence of a larger urbanized area in the southwest sector of the city, and of the approaching northeasterly trade winds. No significant impacts were found in the sea breeze patterns of the city.

High-resolution mapping of biogenic carbon fluxes to improve urban CO2 monitoring, reporting, and verification

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hardiman, B. S.; Hutyra, L.; Gately, C.; Raciti, S. M.

2014-12-01

Urban areas are home to 80% of the US population and 70% of energy related fossil fuel emissions originate from urban areas. Efforts to accurately monitor, report, and verify anthropogenic CO2 missions using atmospheric measurements require reliable partitioning of anthropogenic and biogenic sources. Anthropogenic emissions peak during the daytime, coincident with biogenic drawdown of CO2. In contrast, biogenic respiration emissions peak at night when anthropogenic emissions are lower. This temporal aliasing of fluxes requires careful modeling of both biogenic and anthropogenic fluxes for accurate source attribution through inverse modeling. Biogenic fluxes in urban regions can be a significant component of the urban carbon cycle. However, vegetation in urban areas is subject to longer growing seasons, reduced competition, higher rates of nitrogen deposition, and altered patterns of biomass inputs, all interacting to elevate C turnover rates relative to analogous non-urban ecosystems. These conditions suggest that models that ignore urban vegetation or base biogenic flux estimates on non-urban forests are likely to produce inaccurate estimates of anthropogenic CO2 emissions. Biosphere models often omit biogenic fluxes in urban areas despite potentially extensive vegetation coverage. For example, in Massachusetts, models mask out as much as 40% of land area, effectively assuming they have no biological flux. This results in a ~32% underestimate of aboveground biomass (AGB) across the state as compared to higher resolution vegetation maps. Our analysis suggests that some common biomass maps may underestimate forest biomass by ~520 Tg C within the state of Massachusetts. Moreover, omitted portions of the state have the highest population density, indicating that we know least about regions where most people live. We combine remote sensing imagery of urban vegetation cover with ground surveys of tree growth and mortality to improve estimates of aboveground biomass and biogenic flux rates. Updated biogenic flux rates are combined with spatially explicit anthropogenic flux estimates and a network of urban CO2 monitoring sites as the foundation for a novel carbon monitoring system spanning the Boston-Washington D.C. metropolitan corridor.

Urbanization shapes the demographic history of a native rodent (the white-footed mouse, Peromyscus leucopus) in New York City.

PubMed

Harris, Stephen E; Xue, Alexander T; Alvarado-Serrano, Diego; Boehm, Joel T; Joseph, Tyler; Hickerson, Michael J; Munshi-South, Jason

2016-04-01

How urbanization shapes population genomic diversity and evolution of urban wildlife is largely unexplored. We investigated the impact of urbanization on white-footed mice,Peromyscus leucopus,in the New York City (NYC) metropolitan area using coalescent-based simulations to infer demographic history from the site-frequency spectrum. We assigned individuals to evolutionary clusters and then inferred recent divergence times, population size changes and migration using genome-wide single nucleotide polymorphisms genotyped in 23 populations sampled along an urban-to-rural gradient. Both prehistoric climatic events and recent urbanization impacted these populations. Our modelling indicates that post-glacial sea-level rise led to isolation of mainland and Long Island populations. These models also indicate that several urban parks represent recently isolated P. leucopus populations, and the estimated divergence times for these populations are consistent with the history of urbanization in NYC. © 2016 The Author(s).

Transition index maps for urban growth simulation: application of artificial neural networks, weight of evidence and fuzzy multi-criteria evaluation.

PubMed

Shafizadeh-Moghadam, Hossein; Tayyebi, Amin; Helbich, Marco

2017-06-01

Transition index maps (TIMs) are key products in urban growth simulation models. However, their operationalization is still conflicting. Our aim was to compare the prediction accuracy of three TIM-based spatially explicit land cover change (LCC) models in the mega city of Mumbai, India. These LCC models include two data-driven approaches, namely artificial neural networks (ANNs) and weight of evidence (WOE), and one knowledge-based approach which integrates an analytical hierarchical process with fuzzy membership functions (FAHP). Using the relative operating characteristics (ROC), the performance of these three LCC models were evaluated. The results showed 85%, 75%, and 73% accuracy for the ANN, FAHP, and WOE. The ANN was clearly superior compared to the other LCC models when simulating urban growth for the year 2010; hence, ANN was used to predict urban growth for 2020 and 2030. Projected urban growth maps were assessed using statistical measures, including figure of merit, average spatial distance deviation, producer accuracy, and overall accuracy. Based on our findings, we recomend ANNs as an and accurate method for simulating future patterns of urban growth.

One-dimensional modelling of the interactions between heavy rainfall-runoff in an urban area and flooding flows from sewer networks and rivers.

PubMed

Kouyi, G Lipeme; Fraisse, D; Rivière, N; Guinot, V; Chocat, B

2009-01-01

Many investigations have been carried out in order to develop models which allow the linking of complex physical processes involved in urban flooding. The modelling of the interactions between overland flows on streets and flooding flows from rivers and sewer networks is one of the main objectives of recent and current research programs in hydraulics and urban hydrology. This paper outlines the original one-dimensional linking of heavy rainfall-runoff in urban areas and flooding flows from rivers and sewer networks under the RIVES project framework (Estimation of Scenario and Risks of Urban Floods). The first part of the paper highlights the capacity of Canoe software to simulate the street flows. In the second part, we show the original method of connection which enables the modelling of interactions between processes in urban flooding. Comparisons between simulated results and the results of Despotovic et al. or Gomez & Mur show a good agreement for the calibrated one-dimensional connection model. The connection operates likes a manhole with the orifice/weir coefficients used as calibration parameters. The influence of flooding flows from river was taken into account as a variable water depth boundary condition.

Stochastic model to forecast ground-level ozone concentration at urban and rural areas.

PubMed

Dueñas, C; Fernández, M C; Cañete, S; Carretero, J; Liger, E

2005-12-01

Stochastic models that estimate the ground-level ozone concentrations in air at an urban and rural sampling points in South-eastern Spain have been developed. Studies of temporal series of data, spectral analyses of temporal series and ARIMA models have been used. The ARIMA model (1,0,0) x (1,0,1)24 satisfactorily predicts hourly ozone concentrations in the urban area. The ARIMA (2,1,1) x (0,1,1)24 has been developed for the rural area. In both sampling points, predictions of hourly ozone concentrations agree reasonably well with measured values. However, the prediction of hourly ozone concentrations in the rural point appears to be better than that of the urban point. The performance of ARIMA models suggests that this kind of modelling can be suitable for ozone concentrations forecasting.

Program of research in severe storms

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

1979-01-01

Two modeling areas, the development of a mesoscale chemistry-meteorology interaction model, and the development of a combined urban chemical kinetics-transport model are examined. The problems associated with developing a three dimensional combined meteorological-chemical kinetics computer program package are defined. A similar three dimensional hydrostatic real time model which solves the fundamental Navier-Stokes equations for nonviscous flow is described. An urban air quality simulation model, developed to predict the temporal and spatial distribution of reactive and nonreactive gases in and around an urban area and to support a remote sensor evaluation program is reported.

Modelling the effect of urbanization on the transmission of an infectious disease.

PubMed

Zhang, Ping; Atkinson, Peter M

2008-01-01

This paper models the impact of urbanization on infectious disease transmission by integrating a CA land use development model, population projection matrix model and CA epidemic model in S-Plus. The innovative feature of this model lies in both its explicit treatment of spatial land use development, demographic changes, infectious disease transmission and their combination in a dynamic, stochastic model. Heuristically-defined transition rules in cellular automata (CA) were used to capture the processes of both land use development with urban sprawl and infectious disease transmission. A population surface model and dwelling distribution surface were used to bridge the gap between urbanization and infectious disease transmission. A case study is presented involving modelling influenza transmission in Southampton, a dynamically evolving city in the UK. The simulation results for Southampton over a 30-year period show that the pattern of the average number of infection cases per day can depend on land use and demographic changes. The modelling framework presents a useful tool that may be of use in planning applications.

Incorporating wind availability into land use regression modelling of air quality in mountainous high-density urban environment.

PubMed

Shi, Yuan; Lau, Kevin Ka-Lun; Ng, Edward

2017-08-01

Urban air quality serves as an important function of the quality of urban life. Land use regression (LUR) modelling of air quality is essential for conducting health impacts assessment but more challenging in mountainous high-density urban scenario due to the complexities of the urban environment. In this study, a total of 21 LUR models are developed for seven kinds of air pollutants (gaseous air pollutants CO, NO 2 , NO x , O 3 , SO 2 and particulate air pollutants PM 2.5 , PM 10 ) with reference to three different time periods (summertime, wintertime and annual average of 5-year long-term hourly monitoring data from local air quality monitoring network) in Hong Kong. Under the mountainous high-density urban scenario, we improved the traditional LUR modelling method by incorporating wind availability information into LUR modelling based on surface geomorphometrical analysis. As a result, 269 independent variables were examined to develop the LUR models by using the "ADDRESS" independent variable selection method and stepwise multiple linear regression (MLR). Cross validation has been performed for each resultant model. The results show that wind-related variables are included in most of the resultant models as statistically significant independent variables. Compared with the traditional method, a maximum increase of 20% was achieved in the prediction performance of annual averaged NO 2 concentration level by incorporating wind-related variables into LUR model development. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Modelling the effects of land use changes on the streamflow of a peri-urban catchment in central Portugal

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hävermark, Saga; Santos Ferreira, Carla Sofia; Kalantari, Zahra; Di Baldassarre, Giuliano

2016-04-01

Many river basis around the world are rapidly changing together with societal development. Such developments may involve changes in land use, which in turn affect the surrounding environment in various ways. Since the start of industrialisation, the urban areas have extended worldwide. Urbanization can influence hydrological processes by decreasing evapotranspiration, infiltration and groundwater recharge as well as increasing runoff and overland flow. It is therefore of uttermost importance to understand the relationship between land use and hydrology. Although several studies have been investigating the impacts of urbanization on streamflow over the last decades, less is known on how urbanization affects hydrological processes in peri-urban areas, characterized by a complex mosaic of different land uses. This study aimed to model the impact of land use changes, specifically urbanization and commercial forest plantation, on the hydrological responses of the small Ribeira dos Covões peri-urban catchment (6,2 km2) located in central Portugal. The catchment has undergone rapid land use changes between 1958 and 2012 associated with the conversion of agricultural fields (cover area decreased from 48% to 4%) into woodland and urban areas, which increased from 44% to 56% and from 8% to 40%, respectively. For the study, the fully-distributed, physically-based modelling system MIKE SHE was used. The model was designed to examine both how past land use changes might have affected the streamflow and to investigate the impacts on hydrology of possible future scenarios, including a 50 %, 60 % and 70 % urban cover. To this end, a variety of data including daily rainfall since 1958 and forward, daily potential evapotranspiration from 2009 to 2013, monthly temperature averages from 1971 to 2013, land use for the years 1958, 1973, 1979, 1990, 1995, 2002, 2007 and 2012, streamflow from the hydrological years 2008 to 2013, catchment topography and soil types were used. The model was calibrated for the hydrological years 2008 to 2010 and validated for the three following years using streamflow data. The impact of future land use changes was analysed by investigating the impact of the size and location of the urban areas within the catchment. Modelling results are expected to support the decision making process in planning and developing new urban areas.

Urban-suburban differences in GP requests for lumbosacral spine radiographs in a primary healthcare centre in Malta.

PubMed

Pullicino, Glorianne; Sciortino, Philip; Francalanza, Sean; Sciortino, Paul; Pullicino, Richard

2018-04-01

Due to demographic changes, growing demands, technological developments and rising healthcare costs, analysis of resources in rural and urban primary care clinics is crucial. However, data on primary care provision in rural and suburban areas are lacking. Moreover, health inequities in small island communities tend to be reduced by social homogeneity and an almost indiscernible urban-rural difference. The aim of the study was to examine the urban-suburban differences in the indications for lumbosacral spine radiographs in a public primary healthcare centre in Malta. A list of all patients who underwent lumbosacral spine radiography in a public primary healthcare centre between January and June 2014 was obtained. The indications for lumbosacral spine radiographs were compared against the evidence-based indications posited by the America College of Radiology, the American Society of Spine Radiology, the Society for Pediatric Radiology and the Society of Skeletal Radiology in 2014. Differences between suburban and urban areas were analysed using the χ² test. Direct logistic regression was used to estimate the influences of different patients' characteristics and imaging indications in urban and suburban areas. The logistic regression model predicting the likelihood of different factors occurring with suburban patients as opposed to those residing in urban areas contained four independent variables (private/public sector, examination findings, osteoporosis, infection). The full model containing all predictors was statistically significant, c2 (4, N=1112) = 26.57, p≤0.001, indicating that the model was able to distinguish between patients residing in rural and urban areas. All four of the independent variables made a unique, statistically significant contribution to the model. The model as a whole explained between 2.4% (Cox and Snell R2) and 3.6% (Nagelkerke R2) of the variance in suburban/urban areas, and correctly classified 78.5% of cases. All four of the independent variables made a unique statistically significant contribution to the model. General practitioner (GP) requests for patients residing in suburban areas were more likely to be submitted from the private sector whereas urban GPs tended to include more examination findings. Requests by GPs for lumbosacral spine radiographs due to osteoporosis and infection tended to be more prevalent for urban patients. Such findings provide information for policymakers to improve equity in health care and resource allocations within the settings of urbanity and rurality.

Urban Stormwater Management Model and Tools for Designing Stormwater Management of Green Infrastructure Practices

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Haris, H.; Chow, M. F.; Usman, F.; Sidek, L. M.; Roseli, Z. A.; Norlida, M. D.

2016-03-01

Urbanization is growing rapidly in Malaysia. Rapid urbanization has known to have several negative impacts towards hydrological cycle due to decreasing of pervious area and deterioration of water quality in stormwater runoff. One of the negative impacts of urbanization is the congestion of the stormwater drainage system and this situation leading to flash flood problem and water quality degradation. There are many urban stormwater management softwares available in the market such as Storm Water Drainage System design and analysis program (DRAINS), Urban Drainage and Sewer Model (MOUSE), InfoWorks River Simulation (InfoWork RS), Hydrological Simulation Program-Fortran (HSPF), Distributed Routing Rainfall-Runoff Model (DR3M), Storm Water Management Model (SWMM), XP Storm Water Management Model (XPSWMM), MIKE-SWMM, Quality-Quantity Simulators (QQS), Storage, Treatment, Overflow, Runoff Model (STORM), and Hydrologic Engineering Centre-Hydrologic Modelling System (HEC-HMS). In this paper, we are going to discuss briefly about several softwares and their functionality, accessibility, characteristics and components in the quantity analysis of the hydrological design software and compare it with MSMA Design Aid and Database. Green Infrastructure (GI) is one of the main topics that has widely been discussed all over the world. Every development in the urban area is related to GI. GI can be defined as green area build in the develop area such as forest, park, wetland or floodway. The role of GI is to improve life standard such as water filtration or flood control. Among the twenty models that have been compared to MSMA SME, ten models were selected to conduct a comprehensive review for this study. These are known to be widely accepted by water resource researchers. These ten tools are further classified into three major categories as models that address the stormwater management ability of GI in terms of quantity and quality, models that have the capability of conducting the economic analysis of GI and models that can address both stormwater management and economic aspects together.

Siting Background Towers to Characterize Incoming Air for Urban Greenhouse Gas Estimation: A Case Study in the Washington, DC/Baltimore Area

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mueller, K.; Yadav, V.; Lopez-Coto, I.; Karion, A.; Gourdji, S.; Martin, C.; Whetstone, J.

2018-03-01

There is increased interest in understanding urban greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. To accurately estimate city emissions, the influence of extraurban fluxes must first be removed from urban greenhouse gas (GHG) observations. This is especially true for regions, such as the U.S. Northeastern Corridor-Baltimore/Washington, DC (NEC-B/W), downwind of large fluxes. To help site background towers for the NEC-B/W, we use a coupled Bayesian Information Criteria and geostatistical regression approach to help site four background locations that best explain CO2 variability due to extraurban fluxes modeled at 12 urban towers. The synthetic experiment uses an atmospheric transport and dispersion model coupled with two different flux inventories to create modeled observations and evaluate 15 candidate towers located along the urban domain for February and July 2013. The analysis shows that the average ratios of extraurban inflow to total modeled enhancements at urban towers are 21% to 36% in February and 31% to 43% in July. In July, the incoming air dominates the total variability of synthetic enhancements at the urban towers (R2 = 0.58). Modeled observations from the selected background towers generally capture the variability in the synthetic CO2 enhancements at urban towers (R2 = 0.75, root-mean-square error (RMSE) = 3.64 ppm; R2 = 0.43, RMSE = 4.96 ppm for February and July). However, errors associated with representing background air can be up to 10 ppm for any given observation even with an optimal background tower configuration. More sophisticated methods may be necessary to represent background air to accurately estimate urban GHG emissions.

Integration of Genetic Algorithms and Fuzzy Logic for Urban Growth Modeling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Foroutan, E.; Delavar, M. R.; Araabi, B. N.

2012-07-01

Urban growth phenomenon as a spatio-temporal continuous process is subject to spatial uncertainty. This inherent uncertainty cannot be fully addressed by the conventional methods based on the Boolean algebra. Fuzzy logic can be employed to overcome this limitation. Fuzzy logic preserves the continuity of dynamic urban growth spatially by choosing fuzzy membership functions, fuzzy rules and the fuzzification-defuzzification process. Fuzzy membership functions and fuzzy rule sets as the heart of fuzzy logic are rather subjective and dependent on the expert. However, due to lack of a definite method for determining the membership function parameters, certain optimization is needed to tune the parameters and improve the performance of the model. This paper integrates genetic algorithms and fuzzy logic as a genetic fuzzy system (GFS) for modeling dynamic urban growth. The proposed approach is applied for modeling urban growth in Tehran Metropolitan Area in Iran. Historical land use/cover data of Tehran Metropolitan Area extracted from the 1988 and 1999 Landsat ETM+ images are employed in order to simulate the urban growth. The extracted land use classes of the year 1988 include urban areas, street, vegetation areas, slope and elevation used as urban growth physical driving forces. Relative Operating Characteristic (ROC) curve as an fitness function has been used to evaluate the performance of the GFS algorithm. The optimum membership function parameter is applied for generating a suitability map for the urban growth. Comparing the suitability map and real land use map of 1999 gives the threshold value for the best suitability map which can simulate the land use map of 1999. The simulation outcomes in terms of kappa of 89.13% and overall map accuracy of 95.58% demonstrated the efficiency and reliability of the proposed model.

An examination of land use impacts of flooding induced by sea level rise

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Song, Jie; Fu, Xinyu; Gu, Yue; Deng, Yujun; Peng, Zhong-Ren

2017-03-01

Coastal regions become unprecedentedly vulnerable to coastal hazards that are associated with sea level rise. The purpose of this paper is therefore to simulate prospective urban exposure to changing sea levels. This article first applied the cellular-automaton-based SLEUTH model (Project Gigalopolis, 2016) to calibrate historical urban dynamics in Bay County, Florida (USA) - a region that is greatly threatened by rising sea levels. This paper estimated five urban growth parameters by multiple-calibration procedures that used different Monte Carlo iterations to account for modeling uncertainties. It then employed the calibrated model to predict three scenarios of urban growth up to 2080 - historical trend, urban sprawl, and compact development. We also assessed land use impacts of four policies: no regulations; flood mitigation plans based on the whole study region and on those areas that are prone to experience growth; and the protection of conservational lands. This study lastly overlaid projected urban areas in 2030 and 2080 with 500-year flooding maps that were developed under 0, 0.2, and 0.9 m sea level rise. The calibration results that a substantial number of built-up regions extend from established coastal settlements. The predictions suggest that total flooded area of new urbanized regions in 2080 would be more than 25 times that under the flood mitigation policy, if the urbanization progresses with few policy interventions. The joint model generates new knowledge in the domain between land use modeling and sea level rise. It contributes to coastal spatial planning by helping develop hazard mitigation schemes and can be employed in other international communities that face combined pressure of urban growth and climate change.

Dynamics of the Urban Water-Energy Nexuses of Mumbai and London

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

De Stercke, S.; Mijic, A.; Buytaert, W.; Chaturvedi, V.

2016-12-01

Both in developing as well as industrialized countries, cities are seeing their populations increase as more people concentrate in urban settlements. This burdens existing water and energy systems, which are also increasingly stressed on the supply side due to availability, and policy goals. In addition to the water and energy embedded in the electricity, fuels and water delivered to the city, the linkages in the urban environment itself are important and in magnitude they significantly exceed those upstream in the case of industrialized countries. However, little research has been published on urban water-energy linkages in developing countries. For cities in general, there is also a dearth of studies on the dynamics of these linkages with urban growth and socioeconomic development, and hence of the mutual influence of the urban water and energy systems. System dynamics modeling was used to understand and simulate these dynamics, building on modeling techniques from the water, energy, and urban systems literature. For each of the two characteristically different cities of Mumbai and London a model was constructed and calibrated with data from various public sources and personal interviews. The differences between the two cases are discussed by means of the models. Transition pathways to sustainable cities with respect to water use, energy use and greenhouse gas emissions are illustrated for each city. Furthermore, uncertainties and model sensitivity, and their implications, are presented. Finally, applicability of either or a hybrid of these models to other cities is investigated.

Decoupling emissions of greenhouse gas, urbanization, energy and income: analysis from the economy of China.

PubMed

Wang, Tianqiong; Riti, Joshua Sunday; Shu, Yang

2018-05-08

The adoption and ratification of relevant policies, particularly the household enrolment system metamorphosis in China, led to rising urbanization growth. As the leading developing economy, China has experienced a drastic and rapid increase in the rate of urbanization, energy use, economic growth and greenhouse gas (GHG) pollution for the past 30 years. The knowledge of the dynamic interrelationships among these trends has a plethora of implications ranging from demographic, energy, and environmental and sustainable development policies. This study analyzes the role of urbanization in decoupling GHG emissions, energy, and income in China while considering the critical contribution of energy use. As a contribution to the extant body of literature, the present research introduces a new phenomenon called "the environmental urbanization Kuznets curve" (EUKC), which shows that at the early stage of urbanization, the environment degrades however, after a threshold point the technique effects surface and environmental degradation reduces with rise in urbanization. Applying the autoregressive distributed lag model and the vector error correction model, the paper finds the presence of inverted U-shaped curve between urbanization and GHG emission of CO 2 , while the same hypothesis cannot be found between income and GHG emission of CO 2 . Energy use in all the models contributes to GHG emission of CO 2 . In decoupling greenhouse gas emissions, urbanization, energy, and income, articulated and well-implemented energy and urbanization policies should be considered.

Urbanization, economic development and health: evidence from China's labor-force dynamic survey.

PubMed

Chen, Hongsheng; Liu, Ye; Li, Zhigang; Xue, Desheng

2017-11-29

The frequent outbreak of environmental threats in China has resulted in increased criticism regarding the health effects of China's urbanization. Urbanization is a double-edged sword with regard to health in China. Although great efforts have been made to investigate the mechanisms through which urbanization influences health, the effect of both economic development and urbanization on health in China is still unclear, and how urbanization-health (or development-health) relationships vary among different income groups remain poorly understood. To bridge these gaps, the present study investigates the impact of both urbanization and economic development on individuals' self-rated health and its underlying mechanisms in China. We use data from the national scale of the 2014 China Labor-force Dynamics Survey to analyze the impact of China's urbanization and economic development on health. A total of 14,791 individuals were sampled from 401 neighborhoods within 124 prefecture-level cities. Multilevel ordered logistic models were applied. Model results showed an inverted U-shaped relationship between individuals' self-rated health and urbanization rates (with a turning point of urbanization rate at 42.0%) and a positive linear relationship between their self-rated health and economic development. Model results also suggested that the urbanization-health relationship was inverted U-shaped for high- and middle-income people (with a turning point of urbanization rate at 0.0% and 49.2%, respectively), and the development-health relationship was inverted U-shaped for high- and low-income people (with turning points of GDP per capita at 93,462 yuan and 71,333 yuan, respectively) and linear for middle-income people. The impact of urbanization and economic development on health in China is complicated. Careful assessments are needed to understand the health impact of China's rapid urbanization. Social and environmental problems arising from rapid urbanization and economic growth should be addressed. Equitable provision of health services are needed to improve low-income groups' health in highly urbanized cities.

A new methodology for dynamic modelling of health risks arising from wastewater influenced urban flooding

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jørgensen, Claus; Mark, Ole; Djordjevic, Slobodan; Hammond, Michael; Khan, David M.; Erichsen, Anders; Dorrit Enevoldsen, Ann; Heinicke, Gerald; Helwigh, Birgitte

2015-04-01

Indroduction Urban flooding due to rainfall exceeding the design capacity of drainage systems is a global problem and it has significant economic and social consequences. While the cost of the direct flood damages of urban flooding is well understood, the indirect damages, like the water borne diseases is in general still poorly understood. Climate changes are expected to increase the frequency of urban flooding in many countries which is likely to increase water borne diseases. Diarrheal diseases are most prevalent in developing countries, where poor sanitation, poor drinking water and poor surface water quality causes a high disease burden and mortality, especially during floods. The level of water borne diarrhea in countries with well-developed water and waste water infrastructure has been reduced to an acceptable level, and the population in general do not consider waste water as being a health risk. Hence, exposure to wastewater influenced urban flood water still has the potential to cause transmission of diarrheal diseases. When managing urban flooding and planning urban climate change adaptations, health risks are rarely taken into consideration. This paper outlines a novel methodology for linking dynamic urban flood modelling with Quantitative Microbial Risk Assessment (QMRA). This provides a unique possibility for understanding the interaction between urban flooding and the health risks caused by direct human contact with flood water and provides an option for reducing the burden of disease in the population through the use of intelligent urban flood risk management. Methodology We have linked hydrodynamic urban flood modelling with quantitative microbial risk assessment (QMRA) to determine the risk of infection caused by exposure to wastewater influenced urban flood water. The deterministic model MIKE Flood, which integrates the sewer network model in MIKE Urban and the 2D surface model MIKE21, was used to calculate the concentration of pathogens in the flood water, based on either measured waste water pathogen concentrations or on assumptions regarding the prevalence of infections in the population. The exposure (dosage) to pathogens was estimated by multiplying the concentration with literature values for the ingestion of water for different exposure groups (e.g. children, adults). The probability of infection was determined by applying dose response relations and MonteCarlo simulation. The methodology is demonstrated on two cases, i.e one case from a developing country with poor sanitation and one case from a developed country, where climate adaptation is the main issue: The risk of cholera in the City of Dhaka, Bangladesh during a flood event 2004, and the risk of bacterial and viral infections of during a flood event in Copenhagen, Denmark in 2011. Results PIC The historical flood events in Dhaka (2004) and Copenhagen (2011) were successfully modelled. The urban flood model was successfully coupled to QMRA. An example of the results of the quantitative microbial risk assessment given as the average estimated risk of cholera infection for children below 5 years living in slum areas in Dhaka is shown in the figure. Similarly, the risk of infection during the flood event in Copenhagen will be presented in the article. Conclusions We have developed a methodology for the dynamic modeling of the risk of infection during waste water influenced urban flooding. The outcome of the modelling exercise indicates that direct contact with polluted flood water is a likely route of transmission of cholera in Dhaka, and bacterial and viral infectious diseases in Copenhagen. It demonstrates the applicability and the potential for linking urban flood models with QMRA in order to identify interventions to reduce the burden of disease on the population in Dhaka City and Copenhagen.

Intelligent path loss prediction engine design using machine learning in the urban outdoor environment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Ruichen; Lu, Jingyang; Xu, Yiran; Shen, Dan; Chen, Genshe; Pham, Khanh; Blasch, Erik

2018-05-01

Due to the progressive expansion of public mobile networks and the dramatic growth of the number of wireless users in recent years, researchers are motivated to study the radio propagation in urban environments and develop reliable and fast path loss prediction models. During last decades, different types of propagation models are developed for urban scenario path loss predictions such as the Hata model and the COST 231 model. In this paper, the path loss prediction model is thoroughly investigated using machine learning approaches. Different non-linear feature selection methods are deployed and investigated to reduce the computational complexity. The simulation results are provided to demonstratethe validity of the machine learning based path loss prediction engine, which can correctly determine the signal propagation in a wireless urban setting.

Technical Description of Urban Microscale Modeling System: Component 1 of CRTI Project 02-0093RD

DTIC Science & Technology

2007-03-01

0093RD which involved (1) development and implementation of a com- putational fluid dynamics model for the simulation of urban flow in an arbitrary...resource will serve as a nation-wide general problem- solving tool for first-responders involved with CBR incidents in the urban environment and...predictions with experimental data obtained from a comprehensive full-scale urban field experiment conducted in Oklahoma City, Oklahoma in July 2003 (Joint

Urban Growth Modeling Using AN Artificial Neural Network a Case Study of Sanandaj City, Iran

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mohammady, S.; Delavar, M. R.; Pahlavani, P.

2014-10-01

Land use activity is a major issue and challenge for town and country planners. Modelling and managing urban growth is a complex problem. Cities are now recognized as complex, non-linear and dynamic process systems. The design of a system that can handle these complexities is a challenging prospect. Local governments that implement urban growth models need to estimate the amount of urban land required in the future given anticipated growth of housing, business, recreation and other urban uses within the boundary. There are so many negative implications related with the type of inappropriate urban development such as increased traffic and demand for mobility, reduced landscape attractively, land use fragmentation, loss of biodiversity and alterations of the hydrological cycle. The aim of this study is to use the Artificial Neural Network (ANN) to make a powerful tool for simulating urban growth patterns. Our study area is Sanandaj city located in the west of Iran. Landsat imageries acquired at 2000 and 2006 are used. Dataset were used include distance to principle roads, distance to residential areas, elevation, slope, distance to green spaces and distance to region centers. In this study an appropriate methodology for urban growth modelling using satellite remotely sensed data is presented and evaluated. Percent Correct Match (PCM) and Figure of Merit were used to evaluate ANN results.

The Influence of Roof Material on Diurnal Urban Canyon Breathing

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Abuhegazy, Mohamed; Yaghoobian, Neda

2017-11-01

Improvements in building energy use, air quality in urban canyons and in general urban microclimates require understanding the complex interaction between urban morphology, materials, climate, and inflow conditions. Review of the literature indicates that despite a long history of valuable urban microclimate studies, more comprehensive approaches are needed to address energy, and heat and flow transport in urban areas. In this study, a more comprehensive simulation of the diurnally varying street canyon flow and associated heat transport is numerically investigated, using Large-eddy Simulation (LES). We use computational modeling to examine the impact of diurnal variation of the heat fluxes from urban surfaces on the air flow and temperature distribution in street canyons with a focus on the role of roof materials and their temperature footprints. A detailed building energy model with a three-dimensional raster-type geometry provides urban surface heat fluxes as thermal boundary conditions for the LES to determine the key aero-thermodynamic factors that affect urban street ventilation.

The Power of Micro Urban Structures, Theory of EEPGC - the Micro Urban Energy Distribution Model as a Planning Tool for Sustainable City Development

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tkáč, Štefan

2015-11-01

To achieve the smart growth and equitable development in the region, urban planners should consider also lateral energies represented by the energy urban models like further proposed EEPGC focused on energy distribution via connections among micro-urban structures, their onsite renewable resources and the perception of micro-urban structures as decentralized energy carriers based on pre industrialized era. These structures are still variously bound when part of greater patterns. After the industrial revolution the main traded goods became energy in its various forms. The EEPGC is focused on sustainable energy transportation distances between the villages and the city, described by the virtual "energy circles". This more human scale urbanization, boost the economy in micro-urban areas, rising along with clean energy available in situ that surely gives a different perspective to human quality of life in contrast to overcrowded multicultural mega-urban structures facing generations of problems and struggling to survive as a whole.

Consolidating Data of Global Urban Populations: a Comparative Approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Blankespoor, B.; Khan, A.; Selod, H.

2017-12-01

Global data on city populations are essential for the study of urbanization, city growth and the spatial distribution of human settlements. Such data are either gathered by combining official estimates of urban populations from across countries or extracted from gridded population models that combine these estimates with geospatial data. These data sources provide varying estimates of urban populations and each approach has its advantages and limitations. In particular, official figures suffer from a lack of consistency in defining urban units (across both space and time) and often provide data for jurisdictions rather than the functionally meaningful urban area. On the other hand, gridded population models require a user-imposed definition to identify urban areas and are constrained by the modelling techniques and input data employed. To address these drawbacks, we combine these approaches by consolidating information from three established sources: (i) the Citypopulation.de (Brinkhoff, 2016); (ii) the World Urban Prospects data (United Nations, 2014); and (iii) the Global Human Settlements population grid (GHS-POP) (EC - JRC, 2015). We create urban footprints with GHS-POP and spatially merge georeferenced city points from both UN WUP and Citypopulation.de with these urban footprints to identify city points that belong to a single agglomeration. We create a consolidated dataset by combining population data from the UN WUP and Citypopulation.de. The flexible framework outlined can incorporate information from alternative inputs to identify urban clusters e.g. by using night-time lights, built-up area or alternative gridded population models (e.g WorldPop or Landscan) and the parameters employed (e.g. density thresholds for urban footprints) may also be adjusted, e.g., as a function of city-specific characteristics. Our consolidated dataset provides a wider and more accurate coverage of city populations to support studies of urbanization. We apply the data to re-examine Zipf's Law. Brinkhoff, Thomas. 2016. City Population.EC - JRC; Columbia University, CIESIN. 2015. GHS population grid, derived from GPW4, multi-temporal (1975, 1990, 2000, 2015).United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division. 2014. World Urbanization Prospects: 2014 Revision.

Modelled spatiotemporal variability of outdoor thermal comfort in local climate zones of the city of Brno, Czech Republic.

PubMed

Geletič, Jan; Lehnert, Michal; Savić, Stevan; Milošević, Dragan

2018-05-15

This study uses the MUKLIMO_3 urban climate model (in German, Mikroskaliges Urbanes KLImaMOdell in 3-Dimensionen) and measurements from an urban climate network in order to simulate, validate and analyse the spatiotemporal pattern of human thermal comfort outdoors in the city of Brno (Czech Republic) during a heat-wave period. HUMIDEX, a heat index designed to quantify human heat exposure, was employed to assess thermal comfort, employing air temperature and relative humidity data. The city was divided into local climate zones (LCZs) in order to access differences in intra-urban thermal comfort. Validation of the model results, based on the measurement dates within the urban monitoring network, confirmed that the MUKLIMO_3 micro-scale model had the capacity to simulate the main spatiotemporal patterns of thermal comfort in an urban area and its vicinity. The results suggested that statistically significant differences in outdoor thermal comfort exist in the majority of cases between different LCZs. The most built-up LCZ types (LCZs 2, 3, 5, 8 and 10) were disclosed as the most uncomfortable areas of the city. Hence, conditions of great discomfort (HUMIDEX >40) were recorded in these areas, mainly in the afternoon hours (from 13.00 to 18.00 CEST), while some thermal discomfort continued overnight. In contrast, HUMIDEX values in sparsely built-up LCZ 9 and non-urban LCZs were substantially lower and indicated better thermal conditions for the urban population. Interestingly, the model captured a local increase of HUMIDEX values arising out of air humidity in LCZs with the presence of more vegetation (LCZs A and B) and in the vicinity of larger bodies of water (LCZ G). Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Urban Educators' Perceptions of Culturally Relevant Pedagogy and School Reform Mandates

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Esposito, Jennifer; Davis, Corrie L.; Swain, Ayanna N.

2012-01-01

In this article, we examine urban teachers' perceptions of school reform models (SRMs) and culturally relevant pedagogy (CRP). In particular, we examined how urban educators altered mandated reform models in the best interests of their culturally and linguistically diverse students. We discuss data from a phenomenological study, which included…

The Organizational Model for the Saskatchewan Urban Native Teacher Education Program (SUNTEP).

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Whyte, Kenn

Designed to train Canadian Natives as professional educators and models for Native students in urban schools, the Saskatchewan Urban Native Teacher Education Program (SUNTEP), initiated by the Association of Metis and Non-status Indians of Saskatchewan and offered by the Gabriel Dumont Institute, incorporates two basic objectives: to assist Native…

The Operation Method of Smarter City Based on Ecological Theory

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fan, C.; Fan, H. Y.

2017-10-01

As the city and urbanization’s accelerated pace has caused galloping population, the urban framework is extending with increasingly complex social problems. The urban management tends to become complicated and the governance seems more difficult to pursue. exploring the urban management’s new model has attracted local governments’ urgent attention. tcombines the guiding ideology and that management’s practices based on ecological theory, explains the Smarter city Ecology Managementmodel’s formation, makes modern urban management’s comparative analysis and further defines the aforesaid management mode’s conceptual model. Based on the smarter city system theory’s ecological carrying capacity, the author uses mathematical model to prove the coordination relationship between the smarter city Ecology Managementmode’s subsystems, demonstrates that it can improve the urban management’s overall level, emphasizes smarter city management integrity, believing that urban system’s optimization is based on each subsystem being optimized, attaching the importance to elements, structure, and balance between each subsystem and between internal elements. Through the establishment of the smarter city Ecology Managementmodel’s conceptual model and theoretical argumentation, it provides a theoretical basis and technical guidance to that model’s innovation.

Why do people move? Enhancing human mobility prediction using local functions based on public records and SNS data.

PubMed

Kim, Jungmin; Park, Juyong; Lee, Wonjae

2018-01-01

The quality of life for people in urban regions can be improved by predicting urban human mobility and adjusting urban planning accordingly. In this study, we compared several possible variables to verify whether a gravity model (a human mobility prediction model borrowed from Newtonian mechanics) worked as well in inner-city regions as it did in intra-city regions. We reviewed the resident population, the number of employees, and the number of SNS posts as variables for generating mass values for an urban traffic gravity model. We also compared the straight-line distance, travel distance, and the impact of time as possible distance values. We defined the functions of urban regions on the basis of public records and SNS data to reflect the diverse social factors in urban regions. In this process, we conducted a dimension reduction method for the public record data and used a machine learning-based clustering algorithm for the SNS data. In doing so, we found that functional distance could be defined as the Euclidean distance between social function vectors in urban regions. Finally, we examined whether the functional distance was a variable that had a significant impact on urban human mobility.

Urban Growth in a Fragmented Landscape: Estimating the Relationship between Landscape Pattern and Urban Land Use Change in Germany, 2000-2006

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Keller, R.

2013-12-01

One of the highest priorities in the conservation and management of biodiversity, natural resources and other vital ecosystem services is the assessment of the mechanisms that drive urban land use change. Using key landscape indicators, this study addresses why urban land increased 6 percent overall in Germany from 2000-2006. Building on regional science and economic geography research, I develop a model of landscape change that integrates remotely sensed and other geospatial data, and socioeconomic data in a spatial autoregressive model to explain the variance in urban land use change observed in German kreise (counties) over the past decade. The results reveal three key landscape mechanisms that drive urban land use change across Germany, aligning with those observed in US studies: (1) the level of fragmentation, (2) the share of designated protected areas, and (3) the share of prime soil. First, as fragmentation of once continuous habitats in the landscape increases, extensive urban growth follows. Second, designated protected areas have the perverse effect of hastening urbanization in surrounding areas. Third, greater shares of prime, productive soil experienced less urban land take over the 6 year period, an effect that is stronger in the former East Germany, where the agricultural sector remains large. The results suggest that policy makers concentrate their conservation efforts on preexisting fragmented land with high shares of protected areas in Germany to effectively stem urban land take. Given that comparative studies of land use change are vital for the scientific community to grasp the wider global process of urbanization and coincident ecological impacts, the methodology employed here is easily exportable to land cover and land use research programs in other fields and geographic areas. Key words: Urban land use change, Ecosystem services, Landscape fragmentation, Remote sensing, Spatial regression models, GermanyOLS and Spatial Autoregressive Model Results N = 439; Standard error in ( ) . *p < .1, **p < .01, ***p < .001

Does the design and implementation of proven innovations for delivering basic primary health care services in rural communities fit the urban setting: the case of Ghana’s Community-based Health Planning and Services (CHPS)

PubMed Central

2014-01-01

Background Rapid urban population growth is of global concern as it is accompanied with several new health challenges. The urban poor who reside in informal settlements are more vulnerable to these health challenges. Lack of formal government public health facilities for the provision of health care is also a common phenomenon among communities inhabited by the urban poor. To help ameliorate this situation, an innovative urban primary health system was introduced in urban Ghana, based on the milestones model developed with the rural Community-Based Health Planning and Services (CHPS) system. This paper provides an overview of innovative experiences adapted while addressing these urban health issues, including the process of deriving constructive lessons needed to inform discourse on the design and implementation of the sustainable Community-Based Health Planning and Services (CHPS) model as a response to urban health challenges in Southern Ghana. Methods This research was conducted during the six-month pilot of the urban CHPS programme in two selected areas acting as the intervention and control arms of the design. Daily routine data were collected based on milestones initially delineated for the rural CHPS model in the control communities whilst in the intervention communities, some modifications were made to the rural milestones. Results The findings from the implementation activities revealed that many of the best practices derived from the rural CHPS experiment could not be transplanted to poor urban settlements due to the unique organizational structures and epidemiological characteristics found in the urban context. For example, constructing Community Health Compounds and residential facilities within zones, a central component to the rural CHPS strategy, proved inappropriate for the urban sector. Night and weekend home visit schedules were initiated to better accommodate urban residents and increase coverage. The breadth of the disease burden of the urban residents also requires a broader expertise and training of the CHOs. Conclusions Access to improved urban health services remains a challenge. However, current policy guidelines for the implementation of a primary health model based on rural experiences and experimental design requires careful review and modifications to meet the needs of the urban settings. PMID:24690310

Does the design and implementation of proven innovations for delivering basic primary health care services in rural communities fit the urban setting: the case of Ghana's Community-based Health Planning and Services (CHPS).

PubMed

Adongo, Philip Baba; Phillips, James F; Aikins, Moses; Arhin, Doris Afua; Schmitt, Margaret; Nwameme, Adanna U; Tabong, Philip Teg-Nefaah; Binka, Fred N

2014-04-01

Rapid urban population growth is of global concern as it is accompanied with several new health challenges. The urban poor who reside in informal settlements are more vulnerable to these health challenges. Lack of formal government public health facilities for the provision of health care is also a common phenomenon among communities inhabited by the urban poor. To help ameliorate this situation, an innovative urban primary health system was introduced in urban Ghana, based on the milestones model developed with the rural Community-Based Health Planning and Services (CHPS) system. This paper provides an overview of innovative experiences adapted while addressing these urban health issues, including the process of deriving constructive lessons needed to inform discourse on the design and implementation of the sustainable Community-Based Health Planning and Services (CHPS) model as a response to urban health challenges in Southern Ghana. This research was conducted during the six-month pilot of the urban CHPS programme in two selected areas acting as the intervention and control arms of the design. Daily routine data were collected based on milestones initially delineated for the rural CHPS model in the control communities whilst in the intervention communities, some modifications were made to the rural milestones. The findings from the implementation activities revealed that many of the best practices derived from the rural CHPS experiment could not be transplanted to poor urban settlements due to the unique organizational structures and epidemiological characteristics found in the urban context. For example, constructing Community Health Compounds and residential facilities within zones, a central component to the rural CHPS strategy, proved inappropriate for the urban sector. Night and weekend home visit schedules were initiated to better accommodate urban residents and increase coverage. The breadth of the disease burden of the urban residents also requires a broader expertise and training of the CHOs. Access to improved urban health services remains a challenge. However, current policy guidelines for the implementation of a primary health model based on rural experiences and experimental design requires careful review and modifications to meet the needs of the urban settings.

Mapping and modeling the urban landscape in Bangkok, Thailand: Physical-spectral-spatial relations of population-environmental interactions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shao, Yang

This research focuses on the application of remote sensing, geographic information systems, statistical modeling, and spatial analysis to examine the dynamics of urban land cover, urban structure, and population-environment interactions in Bangkok, Thailand, with an emphasis on rural-to-urban migration from rural Nang Rong District, Northeast Thailand to the primate city of Bangkok. The dissertation consists of four main sections: (1) development of remote sensing image classification and change-detection methods for characterizing imperviousness for Bangkok, Thailand from 1993-2002; (2) development of 3-D urban mapping methods, using high spatial resolution IKONOS satellite images, to assess high-rises and other urban structures; (3) assessment of urban spatial structure from 2-D and 3-D perspectives; and (4) an analysis of the spatial clustering of migrants from Nang Rong District in Bangkok and the neighborhood environments of migrants' locations. Techniques are developed to improve the accuracy of the neural network classification approach for the analysis of remote sensing data, with an emphasis on the spectral unmixing problem. The 3-D building heights are derived using the shadow information on the high-resolution IKONOS image. The results from the 2-D and 3-D mapping are further examined to assess urban structure and urban feature identification. This research contributes to image processing of remotely-sensed images and urban studies. The rural-urban migration process and migrants' settlement patterns are examined using spatial statistics, GIS, and remote sensing perspectives. The results show that migrants' spatial clustering in urban space is associated with the source village and a number of socio-demographic variables. In addition, the migrants' neighborhood environments in urban setting are modeled using a set of geographic and socio-demographic variables, and the results are scale-dependent.

A Numerical Study of the Urban Heat Island in the Coastal Tropical City of San Juan, Puerto Rico: Model Validation and Impacts of LCLU Changes

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Comarazamy, Daniel E.; Gonzalez, Jorge E.; Luvall, Jeff; Rickman, Douglas L.

2007-01-01

Urban sprawls in tropical locations are rapidly accelerating and it is more evident in islands where a large percentage of the population resides along the coasts. This paper focuses on the analysis of the impacts of land use and land cover for urbanization in the tropical coastal city of San Juan, in the tropical island of Puerto Rico. A mesoscale numerical model, the Regional Atmospheric Modeling System (RAMS), is used to study specific characteristics and patterns of the urban heat island in the San Juan Metropolitan Area (SJMA), the most noticeable urban core of the Caribbean. The research present in this paper makes use of the observations obtained during the airborne San Juan Atlas Mission in two ways. First, surface and rawinsonde data are used to validate the atmospheric model yielding satisfactory results. Second, airborne remote sensing information is used to update the model's surface characteristics to obtain a detailed configuration of the SJMA in order to perform the LCLU changes impact analysis. This analysis showed that the presence of San Juan has an impact reflected in higher air temperatures over the area occupied by the city, with positive values of up to 2.5 C, for the simulations that have specified urban LCLU indexes in the bottom boundary. One interesting result of the impact analysis was the finding of a precipitation disturbance shown as a difference in total accumulated rainfall between simulation with the city and with a potential natural vegetation induced by the presence of the urban area. Model results indicate that the urban-induced cloud formation and precipitation development occur mainly downwind of the city, including the accumulated precipitation. This spatial pattern can be explained by the presence of a-larger urbanized area in the southwest sector of the city, and of the approaching northeasterly trade winds.

Using urban forest assessment tools to model bird habitat potential

Treesearch

Susannah B. Lerman; Keith H. Nislow; David J. Nowak; Stephen DeStefano; David I. King; D. Todd Jones-Farrand

2014-01-01

The alteration of forest cover and the replacement of native vegetation with buildings, roads, exotic vegetation, and other urban features pose one of the greatest threats to global biodiversity. As more land becomes slated for urban development, identifying effective urban forest wildlife management tools becomes paramount to ensure the urban forest provides habitat...

A comparative injury severity analysis of motorcycle at-fault crashes on rural and urban roadways in Alabama.

PubMed

Islam, Samantha; Brown, Joshua

2017-11-01

The research described in this paper explored the factors contributing to the injury severity resulting from the motorcycle at-fault accidents in rural and urban areas in Alabama. Given the occurrence of a motorcycle at-fault crash, random parameter logit models of injury severity (with possible outcomes of fatal, major, minor, and possible or no injury) were estimated. The estimated models identified a variety of statistically significant factors influencing the injury severities resulting from motorcycle at-fault crashes. According to these models, some variables were found to be significant only in one model (rural or urban) but not in the other one. For example, variables such as clear weather, young motorcyclists, and roadway without light were found significant only in the rural model. On the other hand, variables such as older female motorcyclists, horizontal curve and at intersection were found significant only in the urban model. In addition, some variables (such as, motorcyclists under influence of alcohol, non-usage of helmet, high speed roadways, etc.) were found significant in both models. Also, estimation findings showed that two parameters (clear weather and roadway without light) in the rural model and one parameter (on weekend) in the urban model could be modeled as random parameters indicating their varying influences on the injury severity due to unobserved effects. Based on the results obtained, this paper discusses the effects of different variables on injury severities resulting from rural and urban motorcycle at-fault crashes and their possible explanations. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Application of Shuffled Frog Leaping Algorithm and Genetic Algorithm for the Optimization of Urban Stormwater Drainage

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kumar, S.; Kaushal, D. R.; Gosain, A. K.

2017-12-01

Urban hydrology will have an increasing role to play in the sustainability of human settlements. Expansion of urban areas brings significant changes in physical characteristics of landuse. Problems with administration of urban flooding have their roots in concentration of population within a relatively small area. As watersheds are urbanized, infiltration decreases, pattern of surface runoff is changed generating high peak flows, large runoff volumes from urban areas. Conceptual rainfall-runoff models have become a foremost tool for predicting surface runoff and flood forecasting. Manual calibration is often time consuming and tedious because of the involved subjectivity, which makes automatic approach more preferable. The calibration of parameters usually includes numerous criteria for evaluating the performances with respect to the observed data. Moreover, derivation of objective function assosciat6ed with the calibration of model parameters is quite challenging. Various studies dealing with optimization methods has steered the embracement of evolution based optimization algorithms. In this paper, a systematic comparison of two evolutionary approaches to multi-objective optimization namely shuffled frog leaping algorithm (SFLA) and genetic algorithms (GA) is done. SFLA is a cooperative search metaphor, stimulated by natural memetics based on the population while, GA is based on principle of survival of the fittest and natural evolution. SFLA and GA has been employed for optimizing the major parameters i.e. width, imperviousness, Manning's coefficient and depression storage for the highly urbanized catchment of Delhi, India. The study summarizes the auto-tuning of a widely used storm water management model (SWMM), by internal coupling of SWMM with SFLA and GA separately. The values of statistical parameters such as, Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency (NSE) and Percent Bias (PBIAS) were found to lie within the acceptable limit, indicating reasonably good model performance. Overall, this study proved promising for assessing risk in urban drainage systems and should prove useful to improve integrity of the urban system, its reliability and provides guidance for inundation preparedness.Keywords: Hydrologic model, SWMM, Urbanization, SFLA and GA.

Scenario prediction of emerging coastal city using CA modeling under different environmental conditions: a case study of Lingang New City, China.

PubMed

Feng, Yongjiu; Liu, Yan

2016-09-01

The world's coastal regions are experiencing rapid urbanization coupled with increased risk of ecological damage and storm surge related to global climate and sea level rising. This urban development issue is particularly important in China, where many emerging coastal cities are being developed. Lingang New City, southeast of Shanghai, is an excellent example of a coastal city that is increasingly vulnerable to environmental change. Sustainable urban development requires planning that classifies and allocates coastal lands using objective procedures that incorporate changing environmental conditions. In this paper, we applied cellular automata (CA) modeling based on self-adaptive genetic algorithm (SAGA) to predict future scenarios and explore sustainable urban development options for Lingang. The CA model was calibrated using the 2005 initial status, 2015 final status, and a set of spatial variables. We implemented specific ecological and environmental conditions as spatial constraints for the model and predicted four 2030 scenarios: (a) an urban planning-oriented Plan Scenario; (b) an ecosystem protection-oriented Eco Scenario; (c) a storm surge-affected Storm Scenario; and (d) a scenario incorporating both ecosystem protection and the effects of storm surge, called the Ecostorm Scenario. The Plan Scenario has been taken as the baseline, with the Lingang urban area increasing from 45.8 km(2) in 2015 to 66.8 km(2) in 2030, accounting for 23.9 % of the entire study area. The simulated urban land size of the Plan Scenario in 2030 was taken as the target to accommodate the projected population increase in this city, which was then applied in the remaining three development scenarios. We used CA modeling to reallocate the urban cells to other unconstrained areas in response to changing spatial constraints. Our predictions should be helpful not only in assessing and adjusting the urban planning schemes for Lingang but also for evaluating urban planning in coastal cities elsewhere.

Parameter Estimation and Sensitivity Analysis of an Urban Surface Energy Balance Parameterization at a Tropical Suburban Site

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Harshan, S.; Roth, M.; Velasco, E.

2014-12-01

Forecasting of the urban weather and climate is of great importance as our cities become more populated and considering the combined effects of global warming and local land use changes which make urban inhabitants more vulnerable to e.g. heat waves and flash floods. In meso/global scale models, urban parameterization schemes are used to represent the urban effects. However, these schemes require a large set of input parameters related to urban morphological and thermal properties. Obtaining all these parameters through direct measurements are usually not feasible. A number of studies have reported on parameter estimation and sensitivity analysis to adjust and determine the most influential parameters for land surface schemes in non-urban areas. Similar work for urban areas is scarce, in particular studies on urban parameterization schemes in tropical cities have so far not been reported. In order to address above issues, the town energy balance (TEB) urban parameterization scheme (part of the SURFEX land surface modeling system) was subjected to a sensitivity and optimization/parameter estimation experiment at a suburban site in, tropical Singapore. The sensitivity analysis was carried out as a screening test to identify the most sensitive or influential parameters. Thereafter, an optimization/parameter estimation experiment was performed to calibrate the input parameter. The sensitivity experiment was based on the "improved Sobol's global variance decomposition method" . The analysis showed that parameters related to road, roof and soil moisture have significant influence on the performance of the model. The optimization/parameter estimation experiment was performed using the AMALGM (a multi-algorithm genetically adaptive multi-objective method) evolutionary algorithm. The experiment showed a remarkable improvement compared to the simulations using the default parameter set. The calibrated parameters from this optimization experiment can be used for further model validation studies to identify inherent deficiencies in model physics.

Impact of Urbanization on Spatial Variability of Rainfall-A case study of Mumbai city with WRF Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mathew, M.; Paul, S.; Devanand, A.; Ghosh, S.

2015-12-01

Urban precipitation enhancement has been identified over many cities in India by previous studies conducted. Anthropogenic effects such as change in land cover from hilly forest areas to flat topography with solid concrete infrastructures has certain effect on the local weather, the same way the greenhouse gas has on climate change. Urbanization could alter the large scale forcings to such an extent that it may bring about temporal and spatial changes in the urban weather. The present study investigate the physical processes involved in urban forcings, such as the effect of sudden increase in wind velocity travelling through the channel space in between the dense array of buildings, which give rise to turbulence and air mass instability in urban boundary layer and in return alters the rainfall distribution as well as rainfall initiation. A numerical model study is conducted over Mumbai metropolitan city which lies on the west coast of India, to assess the effect of urban morphology on the increase in number of extreme rainfall events in specific locations. An attempt has been made to simulate twenty extreme rainfall events that occurred over the summer monsoon period of the year 2014 using high resolution WRF-ARW (Weather Research and Forecasting-Advanced Research WRF) model to assess the urban land cover mechanisms that influences precipitation variability over this spatially varying urbanized region. The result is tested against simulations with altered land use. The correlation of precipitation with spatial variability of land use is found using a detailed urban land use classification. The initial and boundary conditions for running the model were obtained from the global model ECMWF(European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecast) reanalysis data having a horizontal resolution of 0.75 °x 0.75°. The high resolution simulations show significant spatial variability in the accumulated rainfall, within a few kilometers itself. Understanding the spatial variability of precipitation will help in the planning and management of the built environment more efficiently.

Simulating Urban Tree Effects on Air, Water, and Heat Pollution Mitigation: iTree-Hydro Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yang, Y.; Endreny, T. A.; Nowak, D.

2011-12-01

Urban and suburban development changes land surface thermal, radiative, porous, and roughness properties and pollutant loading rates, with the combined effect leading to increased air, water, and heat pollution (e.g., urban heat islands). In this research we present the USDA Forest Service urban forest ecosystem and hydrology model, iTree Eco and Hydro, used to analyze how tree cover can deliver valuable ecosystem services to mitigate air, water, and heat pollution. Air pollution mitigation is simulated by dry deposition processes based on detected pollutant levels for CO, NO2, SO2, O3 and atmospheric stability and leaf area indices. Water quality mitigation is simulated with event mean concentration loading algorithms for N, P, metals, and TSS, and by green infrastructure pollutant filtering algorithms that consider flow path dispersal areas. Urban cooling considers direct shading and indirect evapotranspiration. Spatially distributed estimates of hourly tree evapotranspiration during the growing season are used to estimate human thermal comfort. Two main factors regulating evapotranspiration are soil moisture and canopy radiation. Spatial variation of soil moisture is represented by a modified urban topographic index and radiation for each tree is modified by considering aspect, slope and shade from surrounding buildings or hills. We compare the urban cooling algorithms used in iTree-Hydro with the urban canopy and land surface physics schemes used in the Weather Research and Forecasting model. We conclude by identifying biophysical feedbacks between tree-modulated air and water quality environmental services and how these may respond to urban heating and cooling. Improvements to this iTree model are intended to assist managers identify valuable tree services for urban living.

Characterization Urban Heat Island Effect and Modelling of Secondary Pollutant Formations at Urban Hotspots

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Undi, G. S. N. V. K. S. N. S.

2017-12-01

More than 60 percent of the world population is living the urban zones by 2020. This socio of economic transformations will bring considerable changes to the ambient atmosphere. More than 70 percent of the air pollutants in the urban hotspots are from vehicular emissions. in the urban hotspots. In the urban hotspots, the meteorological and dispersion conditions will have different characteristics than in surrounding rural areas. Reactive pollutants transformations are drastically influenced by the local meteorological conditions. The complexity of urban structure alters the pollutants dispersion in the hotspots. This relationship between urban meteorology and air pollution is an important aspect of consideration. In the atmosphere, drastic changes have been noticed from micro to regional and global scales. However, the characteristics of air pollutant emissions vary with time and space, favorable dispersion conditions transport them from local to regional scale. In the present study, the impact of land cover change on Urban Heat Island effect (UHI) has been characterized by considering the three different zones with varying land use patterns. An attempt has been made to estimate the impact of UHI on secondary pollutants (O3) transformations. Envi-Met model has been used to characterize the UHI intensity for the selected zones. Meteorological and air quality measurements were carried out at the selected locations. The diurnal variations of Ozone (O3) concentration for three zones are correlated with the UHI intensity. And the monitoring and model results of O3 concentrations are in good agreement. It is observed from the obtained model results that the metrological parameters influence on local air quality is significant in urban zones.

Future Climate Prediction of Urban Atmosphere in A Tropical Megacity: Utilization of RCP/SSP Scenarios with an Urban Growth Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Darmanto, N. S.; Varquez, A. C. G.; Kanda, M.; Takakuwa, S.

2016-12-01

Economic development in Southeast Asia megacities leads to rapid transformation into more complicated urban configurations. These configurations, including building geometry, enhance aerodynamic drag thus reducing near-surface wind speeds. Roughness parameters representing building geometry, along with anthropogenic heat emissions, contribute to the formation of urban heat islands (UHI). All these have been reproduced successfully in the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Model coupled with an improved single-layer urban canopy model incorporating a realistic distribution of urban parameters and anthropogenic heat emission in the Jakarta Greater Area. We apply this technology to climate change studies by introducing future urbanization defined by urban sprawl, vertical rise in buildings, and increase anthropogenic heat emission (AHE) due to population changes, into futuristic climate modelling. To simulate 2050s future climate, pseudo-global warming method was used which relied on current and ensembles of 5 CMIP5 GCMs for 2 representative concentration pathways (RCP), 2.6 and 8.5. To determine future urbanization level, 2050 population growth and energy consumption were estimated from shared socioeconomic pathways (SSP). This allows the estimation of future urban sprawl, building geometry, and AHE using the SLEUTH urban growth model and spatial growth assumptions. Two cases representing combinations of RCP and SSP were simulated in WRF: RCP2.6-SSP1 and RCP8.5-SSP3. Each case corresponds to best and worst-case scenarios of implementing adaptation and mitigation strategies, respectively. It was found that 2-m temperature of Jakarta will increase by 0.62°C (RCP2.6) and 1.44°C (RCP8.5) solely from background climate change; almost on the same magnitude as the background temperature increase of RCP2.6 (0.5°C) and RCP8.5 (1.2°C). Compared with previous studies, the result indicates that the effect of climate change on UHI in tropical cities may be lesser than cities located in the mid-latitudes. However, it is expected that the combined effect of urbanization and climate change will result to significant changes on future urban temperature. ACK: This research was supported by the Environment Research and Technology Development Fund (S-14) of the Ministry of the Environment, Japan.

Modeling urban growth by the use of a multiobjective optimization approach: environmental and economic issues for the Yangtze watershed, China.

PubMed

Zhang, Wenting; Wang, Haijun; Han, Fengxiang; Gao, Juan; Nguyen, Thuminh; Chen, Yarong; Huang, Bo; Zhan, F Benjamin; Zhou, Lequn; Hong, Song

2014-11-01

Urban growth is an unavoidable process caused by economic development and population growth. Traditional urban growth models represent the future urban growth pattern by repeating the historical urban growth regulations, which can lead to a lot of environmental problems. The Yangtze watershed is the largest and the most prosperous economic area in China, and it has been suffering from rapid urban growth from the 1970s. With the built-up area increasing from 23,238 to 31,054 km(2) during the period from 1980 to 2005, the watershed has suffered from serious nonpoint source (NPS) pollution problems, which have been mainly caused by the rapid urban growth. To protect the environment and at the same time maintain the economic development, a multiobjective optimization (MOP) is proposed to tradeoff the multiple objectives during the urban growth process of the Yangtze watershed. In particular, the four objectives of minimization of NPS pollution, maximization of GDP value, minimization of the spatial incompatibility between the land uses, and minimization of the cost of land-use change are considered by the MOP approach. Conventionally, a genetic algorithm (GA) is employed to search the Pareto solution set. In our MOP approach, a two-dimensional GA, rather than the traditional one-dimensional GA, is employed to assist with the search for the spatial optimization solution, where the land-use cells in the two-dimensional space act as genes in the GA. Furthermore, to confirm the superiority of the MOP approach over the traditional prediction approaches, a widely used urban growth prediction model, cellular automata (CA), is also carried out to allow a comparison with the Pareto solution of MOP. The results indicate that the MOP approach can make a tradeoff between the multiple objectives and can achieve an optimal urban growth pattern for Yangtze watershed, while the CA prediction model just represents the historical urban growth pattern as the future growth pattern. Moreover, according to the spatial clustering index, the urban growth pattern predicted through MOP is more reasonable. In summary, the proposed model provides a set of Pareto urban growth solutions, which compromise environmental and economic issues for the Yangtze watershed.

Assessing the Effects of Irrigation on Land Surface Processes Utilizing CLM.PF in Los Angeles, California

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Reyes, B.; Vahmani, P.; Hogue, T. S.; Maxwell, R. M.

2013-05-01

Irrigation can significantly alter land surface properties including increases in evapotranspiration (ET) and latent heat flux and a decrease in land surface temperatures that have a wide range of effects on the hydrologic cycle. However, most irrigation in land surface modeling studies has generally been limited to large-scale cropland applications while ignoring the, relatively, much smaller use of irrigation in urban areas. Although this assumption may be valid in global studies, as we seek to apply models at higher resolutions and at more local scales, irrigation in urban areas can become a key factor in land-atmosphere interactions. Landscape irrigation can account for large portions of residential urban water use, especially in semi-arid environments (e.g. ~50% in Los Angeles, CA). Previous modeling efforts in urbanized semi-arid regions have shown that disregarding irrigation leads to inaccurate representation of the energy budget. The current research models a 49.5-km2 (19.11-mi2) domain near downtown Los Angeles in the Ballona Creek watershed at a high spatial and temporal resolution using a coupled hydrologic (ParFlow) and land surface model (CLM). Our goals are to (1) provide a sensitivity analysis for urban irrigation parameters including sensitivity to total volume and timing of irrigation, (2) assess the effects of irrigation on varying land cover types on the energy budget, and (3) evaluate if residential water use data is useful in providing estimates for irrigation in land surface modeling. Observed values of land surface parameters from remote sensing products (Land Surface Temperature and ET), water use data from the Los Angeles Department of Water and Power (LADWP), and modeling results from an irrigated version of the NOAH-Urban Canopy Model are being used for comparison and evaluation. Our analysis provides critical information on the degree to which urban irrigation should be represented in high-resolution, semi-arid urban land surface modeling of the region. This research also yields robust upper-boundary conditions for further analysis and modeling in Los Angeles.

Deriving urban dynamic evolution rules from self-adaptive cellular automata with multi-temporal remote sensing images

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

He, Yingqing; Ai, Bin; Yao, Yao; Zhong, Fajun

2015-06-01

Cellular automata (CA) have proven to be very effective for simulating and predicting the spatio-temporal evolution of complex geographical phenomena. Traditional methods generally pose problems in determining the structure and parameters of CA for a large, complex region or a long-term simulation. This study presents a self-adaptive CA model integrated with an artificial immune system to discover dynamic transition rules automatically. The model's parameters are allowed to be self-modified with the application of multi-temporal remote sensing images: that is, the CA can adapt itself to the changed and complex environment. Therefore, urban dynamic evolution rules over time can be efficiently retrieved by using this integrated model. The proposed AIS-based CA model was then used to simulate the rural-urban land conversion of Guangzhou city, located in the core of China's Pearl River Delta. The initial urban land was directly classified from TM satellite image in the year 1990. Urban land in the years 1995, 2000, 2005, 2009 and 2012 was correspondingly used as the observed data to calibrate the model's parameters. With the quantitative index figure of merit (FoM) and pattern similarity, the comparison was further performed between the AIS-based model and a Logistic CA model. The results indicate that the AIS-based CA model can perform better and with higher precision in simulating urban evolution, and the simulated spatial pattern is closer to the actual development situation.

Integrating human and natural systems in community psychology: an ecological model of stewardship behavior.

PubMed

Moskell, Christine; Allred, Shorna Broussard

2013-03-01

Community psychology (CP) research on the natural environment lacks a theoretical framework for analyzing the complex relationship between human systems and the natural world. We introduce other academic fields concerned with the interactions between humans and the natural environment, including environmental sociology and coupled human and natural systems. To demonstrate how the natural environment can be included within CP's ecological framework, we propose an ecological model of urban forest stewardship action. Although ecological models of behavior in CP have previously modeled health behaviors, we argue that these frameworks are also applicable to actions that positively influence the natural environment. We chose the environmental action of urban forest stewardship because cities across the United States are planting millions of trees and increased citizen participation in urban tree planting and stewardship will be needed to sustain the benefits provided by urban trees. We used the framework of an ecological model of behavior to illustrate multiple levels of factors that may promote or hinder involvement in urban forest stewardship actions. The implications of our model for the development of multi-level ecological interventions to foster stewardship actions are discussed, as well as directions for future research to further test and refine the model.

National Urban Database and Access Portal Tool

EPA Science Inventory

Based on the need for advanced treatments of high resolution urban morphological features (e.g., buildings, trees) in meteorological, dispersion, air quality and human exposure modeling systems for future urban applications, a new project was launched called the National Urban Da...

NATIONAL URBAN DATABASE AND ACCESS PROTAL TOOL

EPA Science Inventory

Current mesoscale weather prediction and microscale dispersion models are limited in their ability to perform accurate assessments in urban areas. A project called the National Urban Database with Access Portal Tool (NUDAPT) is beginning to provide urban data and improve the para...

The surface urban heat island response to urban expansion: A panel analysis for the conterminous United States

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Li, Xiaoma; Zhou, Yuyu; Asrar, Ghassem R.

Abstract: Urban heat island (UHI), a major concern worldwide, affects human health and energy use. With current and anticipated rapid urbanization, improved understanding of the response of UHI to urbanization is important for impact analysis and developing effective adaptation measures and mitigation strategies. Current studies mainly focus on a single or a few big cities and knowledge on the response of UHI to urbanization for large areas is very limited. Modelling UHI caused by urbanization for large areas that encompass multiple metropolitans remains a major scientific challenge/opportunity. As a major indicator of urbanization, urban area size lends itself well formore » representation in prognostic models to investigate the impacts of urbanization on UHI and the related socioeconomic and environmental effects. However, we have little knowledge on how UHI responds to the increase of urban area size, namely urban expansion, and its spatial and temporal variation over large areas. In this study, we investigated the relationship between surface UHI (SUHI) and urban area size in the climate and ecological context, and its spatial and temporal variations, based on a panel analysis of about 5000 urban areas of 10 km2 or larger, in the conterminous U.S. We found statistically significant positive relationship between SUHI and urban area size, and doubling the urban area size led to a SUHI increase of higher than 0.7 °C. The response of SUHI to the increase of urban area size shows spatial and temporal variations, with stronger SUHI increase in the Northern region of U.S., and during daytime and summer. Urban area size alone can explain as much as 87% of the variance of SUHI among cities studied, but with large spatial and temporal variations. Urban area size shows higher association with SUHI in regions where the thermal characteristics of land cover surrounding the urban are more homogeneous, such as in Eastern U.S., and in the summer months. This study provides a practical approach for large-scale assessment and modeling of the impact of urbanization on SUHI, both spatially and temporally, for developing mitigation/adaptation measures, especially in anticipated warmer climate conditions for the rest of this century.« less

The Influence of International Law Upon Military Operation on Urbanized Terrain (MOUT) During Romanian Revolution, December 1989

DTIC Science & Technology

2001-01-01

The Use of Military Force in Combating Urban Crime Using British Royal Marines in Northern Ireland as a Model .” MMS Thesis. Quantico, VA: USMC...to capture armaments and to destabilize command and control functions. Solid intelligence networks were required to operate efficiently in the urban ...Force in Combating Urban Crime Using British Royal Marines in Northern Ireland as a Model .” MMS Thesis. Quantico, VA: USMC Command and Staff College

Impact of future urban growth on regional climate changes in the Seoul Metropolitan Area, Korea.

PubMed

Kim, Hyunsu; Kim, Yoo-Keun; Song, Sang-Keun; Lee, Hwa Woon

2016-11-15

The influence of changes in future urban growth (e.g., land use changes) on the future climate variability in the Seoul metropolitan area (SMA), Korea was evaluated using the WRF model and an urban growth model (SLEUTH). The land use changes in the study area were simulated using the SLEUTH model under three different urban growth scenarios: (1) current development trends scenario (SC 1), (2) managed development scenario (SC 2) and (3) ecological development scenario (SC 3). The maximum difference in the ratio of urban growth between SC 1 and SC 3 (SC 1 - SC 3) for 50years (2000-2050) was approximately 6.72%, leading to the largest differences (0.01°C and 0.03ms(-1), respectively) in the mean air temperature at 2m (T2) and wind speed at 10m (WS10). From WRF-SLEUTH modeling, the effects of future urban growth (or future land use changes) in the SMA are expected to result in increases in the spatial mean T2 and WS10 of up to 1.15°C and 0.03ms(-1), respectively, possibly due to thermal circulation caused by the thermal differences between urban and rural regions. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

A scaleable methodology for assessing the impacts of urban shade on the summer electricity use of residential homes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Taylor, Robert Vanderlei

Our cities are experiencing unprecedented growth while net global temperatures continue to trend warmer making sustainable urban development and energy conservation pressing public issues. This research explores how urban landscaping -- in particular trees and buildings -- affect summer electricity use in residential homes. I studied the interactions of urban shade and temperature to explore how vegetation distribution and intensity could play a meaningful role in heat mitigation in urban environments. Only a few studies have reconciled modeled electricity savings from tree shade with actual electricity consumption data. This research proposes a methodology for modeling the isolated effects of urban shade (tree shade vs building shade) on buildings' summertime electricity consumption from micro to mesoscales, empirically validating the modeled shade with actual electricity billing data, and comparing the electric energetic impact of tree shade effects with building shade effects. This proposed methodology seeks to resolve three primary research questions: 1) What are the modeled quantities of urban shade associated with the area of interest (AOI)? 2) To what extent do the effects of shading from trees and buildings mitigate summertime heat in the AOI? 2) To what extent do the shade effects from trees and buildings reduce summertime electricity consumption in the AOI?

SIRANERISK: Modelling dispersion of steady and unsteady pollutant releases in the urban canopy

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Soulhac, L.; Lamaison, G.; Cierco, F.-X.; Ben Salem, N.; Salizzoni, P.; Mejean, P.; Armand, P.; Patryl, L.

2016-09-01

SIRANERISK is an operational model for the simulation of the dispersion of unsteady atmospheric releases of pollutant within and above an urban area. SIRANERISK is built on the same principles as the SIRANE model, and couples a street network model for the pollutant transfers within the urban canopy with a Gaussian puff model for the transfers above it. The performance of the model are here analysed by a detailed comparisons with wind-tunnel experiments. These experiments concern the dispersion of steady and unsteady pollutant releases within and above obstacle arrays with varying geometrical configurations, representing different topologies of idealised urban districts. The overall good agreement between numerical and experimental data demonstrates the reliability of SIRANERISK as an operational tool for the assessment of risk analysis and for the management of crises due to the accidental release of harmful airborne pollutants within a built environment.

Exploring the patterns and evolution of self-organized urban street networks through modeling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rui, Yikang; Ban, Yifang; Wang, Jiechen; Haas, Jan

2013-03-01

As one of the most important subsystems in cities, urban street networks have recently been well studied by using the approach of complex networks. This paper proposes a growing model for self-organized urban street networks. The model involves a competition among new centers with different values of attraction radius and a local optimal principle of both geometrical and topological factors. We find that with the model growth, the local optimization in the connection process and appropriate probability for the loop construction well reflect the evolution strategy in real-world cities. Moreover, different values of attraction radius in centers competition process lead to morphological change in patterns including urban network, polycentric and monocentric structures. The model succeeds in reproducing a large diversity of road network patterns by varying parameters. The similarity between the properties of our model and empirical results implies that a simple universal growth mechanism exists in self-organized cities.

Urban forests for sustainable urban development

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sundara, Denny M.; Hartono, Djoko M.; Suganda, Emirhadi; Haeruman, S. Herman J.

2017-11-01

This paper explores the development of the urban forest in East Jakarta. By 2030 Jakarta area has a target of 30% green area covering 19,845 hectares, including urban forest covering an area of 4,631 hectares. In 2015, the city forest is only 646 hectares, while the city requires 3,985 hectares of new land Urban forest growth from year to year showed a marked decrease with increasing land area awoke to commercial functions, environmental conditions encourage the development of the city to become unsustainable. This research aims to support sustainable urban development and ecological balance through the revitalization of green areas and urban development. Analytical methods for urban forest area is calculated based on the amount of CO2 that comes from people, vehicles, and industrial. Urban spatial analysis based on satellite image data, using a GIS program is an analysis tool to determine the distribution and growth patterns of green areas. This paper uses a dynamic system model to simulate the conditions of the region against intervention to be performed on potential areas for development of urban forests. The result is a model urban forest area is integrated with a social and economic function to encourage the development of sustainable cities.

A study on the relationship between carbon budget and ecosystem service in urban areas according to urbanization

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lee, S. J.; Lee, W. K.

2017-12-01

The study on the analysis of carbon storage capacity of urban green spaces with increasing urban forest. Modern cities have experienced rapid economic development since Industrial Revolution in the 18th century. The rapid economic growth caused an exponential concentration of population to the cities and decrease of green spaces due to the conversion of forest and agricultural lands to build-up areas with rapid urbanization. As green areas including forests, grasslands, and wetlands provide diverse economic, environmental, and cultural benefits, the decrease of green areas might be a huge loss. Also, the process of urbanization caused pressure on the urban environment more than its natural capacity, which accelerates global climate change. This study tries to see the relations between carbon budget and ecosystem services according to the urbanization. For calculating carbon dynamics, this study used VISIT(Vegetation Integrated Simulator for trace gases) model. And the value that ecosystem provides is explained with the concept of ecosystem service and calculated by InVEST model. Study sites are urban and peri-urban areas in Northeast Asia. From the result of the study, the effect of the urbanization can be understood in regard to carbon storage and ecosystem services.

The South Carolina rural-urban HIV continuum of care.

PubMed

Edun, Babatunde; Iyer, Medha; Albrecht, Helmut; Weissman, Sharon

2017-07-01

The HIV continuum of care model is widely used by various agencies to describe the HIV epidemic in stages from diagnosis through to virologic suppression. It identifies the various points at which persons living with HIV (PLWHIV) within a population fail to reach their next step in HIV care. The rural population in the Southern United States is disproportionally affected by the HIV epidemic. The purpose of this study was to examine these rural-urban disparities using the HIV care continuum model and determine at what stages these differences become apparent. PLWHIV aged 13 years and older in South Carolina (SC) were identified using data from the enhanced HIV/AIDS Reporting System. The percentages of PLWHIV linked to care, retained in care, and virologically suppressed were determined. Rural versus urban residence was determined using the Office of Management and Budget classification. There were 14,523 PLWHIV in SC at the end of 2012; 11,193 (77%) of whom were categorized as urban and 3305 (22%) as rural. There was no difference between urban and rural for those who had received any care: 64% versus 64% (p = .61); retention in care 53% versus 53% (p = .71); and virologic suppression 49% versus 48% (p = .35), respectively. The SC rural-urban HIV cascade represents the first published cascade of care model using rural versus urban residence. Although significant health care disparities exist between rural and urban residents, there were no major differences between rural and urban residents at the various stages of engagement in HIV care using the HIV continuum of care model.

Curriculum Guidelines for a Distance Education Course in Urban Agriculture Based on an Eclectic Model.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Gaum, Wilma G.; van Rooyen, Hugo G.

1997-01-01

Describes research to develop curriculum guidelines for a distance education course in urban agriculture. The course, designed to train the teacher, is based on an eclectic curriculum design model. The course is aimed at the socioeconomic empowerment of urban farmers and is based on sustainable ecological-agricultural principles, an…

COST 728 Project Report: Urbanization of Meteorological and Air Quality Models - Chapter 5 - Model Urbanization Strategy: Summaries, Recommendations and Requirements

EPA Science Inventory

The urban canopy (UC), the layer of the atmosphere between the ground and the top of the highest buildings, is the region where people live and human activities take place. Because of this importance (e.g., human health, preservation of buildings) significant efforts have been d...

Status of NASA Satellite, Field Observations, and Numerical Modeling Addressing the Impact of Urbanization on Short and Long Term Precipitation Variability

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Shepherd, J. Marshall; Manyin, Michael; Burian, Steve; Garza, Carlos

2003-01-01

There is renewed interest in the impacts of urbanization on global change as witnessed by special sessions at the Fall AGU and Annual AMS meeting. A comprehensive satellite, modeling, and field campaign program is underway to assess the impact of urbanization on precipitation.

A multi-model approach to monitor emissions of CO2 and CO from an urban-industrial complex

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Super, Ingrid; Denier van der Gon, Hugo A. C.; van der Molen, Michiel K.; Sterk, Hendrika A. M.; Hensen, Arjan; Peters, Wouter

2017-11-01

Monitoring urban-industrial emissions is often challenging because observations are scarce and regional atmospheric transport models are too coarse to represent the high spatiotemporal variability in the resulting concentrations. In this paper we apply a new combination of an Eulerian model (Weather Research and Forecast, WRF, with chemistry) and a Gaussian plume model (Operational Priority Substances - OPS). The modelled mixing ratios are compared to observed CO2 and CO mole fractions at four sites along a transect from an urban-industrial complex (Rotterdam, the Netherlands) towards rural conditions for October-December 2014. Urban plumes are well-mixed at our semi-urban location, making this location suited for an integrated emission estimate over the whole study area. The signals at our urban measurement site (with average enhancements of 11 ppm CO2 and 40 ppb CO over the baseline) are highly variable due to the presence of distinct source areas dominated by road traffic/residential heating emissions or industrial activities. This causes different emission signatures that are translated into a large variability in observed ΔCO : ΔCO2 ratios, which can be used to identify dominant source types. We find that WRF-Chem is able to represent synoptic variability in CO2 and CO (e.g. the median CO2 mixing ratio is 9.7 ppm, observed, against 8.8 ppm, modelled), but it fails to reproduce the hourly variability of daytime urban plumes at the urban site (R2 up to 0.05). For the urban site, adding a plume model to the model framework is beneficial to adequately represent plume transport especially from stack emissions. The explained variance in hourly, daytime CO2 enhancements from point source emissions increases from 30 % with WRF-Chem to 52 % with WRF-Chem in combination with the most detailed OPS simulation. The simulated variability in ΔCO :  ΔCO2 ratios decreases drastically from 1.5 to 0.6 ppb ppm-1, which agrees better with the observed standard deviation of 0.4 ppb ppm-1. This is partly due to improved wind fields (increase in R2 of 0.10) but also due to improved point source representation (increase in R2 of 0.05) and dilution (increase in R2 of 0.07). Based on our analysis we conclude that a plume model with detailed and accurate dispersion parameters adds substantially to top-down monitoring of greenhouse gas emissions in urban environments with large point source contributions within a ˜ 10 km radius from the observation sites.

Description and evaluation of the QUIC bio-slurry scheme: droplet evaporation and surface deposition

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Zajic, Dragan; Brown, Michael J; Nelson, Matthew A

2010-01-01

The Quick Urban and Industrial Complex (QUIC) dispersion modeling system was developed with the goal of improving the transport and dispersion modeling capabilities within urban areas. The modeling system has the ability to rapidly obtain a detailed 3D flow field around building clusters and uses an urbanized Lagrangian random-walk approach to account for transport and dispersion (e.g., see Singh et al., 2008; Williams et al., 2009; and Gowardhan et al., 2009). In addition to wind-tunnel testing, the dispersion modeling system has been evaluated against full-scale urban tracer experiments performed in Salt Lake City, Oklahoma City, and New York City (Gowardhanmore » et al., 2006; Gowardhan et al., 2009; Allwine et al., 2008) and the wind model output to measurements taken in downtown Oklahoma City.« less

Estimating current and future global urban domestic material consumption

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Baynes, Timothy Malcolm; Kaviti Musango, Josephine

2018-06-01

Urban material resource requirements are significant at the global level and these are expected to expand with future urban population growth. However, there are no global scale studies on the future material consumption of urban areas. This paper provides estimates of global urban domestic material consumption (DMC) in 2050 using three approaches based on: current gross statistics; a regression model; and a transition theoretic logistic model. All methods use UN urban population projections and assume a simple ‘business-as-usual’ scenario wherein historical aggregate trends in income and material flow continue into the future. A collation of data for 152 cities provided a year 2000 world average DMC/capita estimate, 12 tons/person/year (±22%), which we combined with UN population projections to produce a first-order estimation of urban DMC at 2050 of ~73 billion tons/year (±22%). Urban DMC/capita was found to be significantly correlated (R 2 > 0.9) to urban GDP/capita and area per person through a power law relation used to obtain a second estimate of 106 billion tons (±33%) in 2050. The inelastic exponent of the power law indicates a global tendency for relative decoupling of direct urban material consumption with increasing income. These estimates are global and influenced by the current proportion of developed-world cities in the global population of cities (and in our sample data). A third method employed a logistic model of transitions in urban DMC/capita with regional resolution. This method estimated global urban DMC to rise from approximately 40 billion tons/year in 2010 to ~90 billion tons/year in 2050 (modelled range: 66–111 billion tons/year). DMC/capita across different regions was estimated to converge from a range of 5–27 tons/person/year in the year 2000 to around 8–17 tons/person/year in 2050. The urban population does not increase proportionally during this period and thus the global average DMC/capita increases from ~12 to ~14 tons/person/year, challenging resource decoupling targets.

Urbanism and Life Satisfaction among the Aged.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Liang, Jersey; Warfel, Becky L.

1983-01-01

Examined the impact of urbanism on the causal mechanisms by which life satisfaction is determined using a causal model that incorporates urbanism as a polytomous variable. Urbanism was found to have indirect main effects as well as interaction effects on life satisfaction. (Author/JAC)

A Comparison of One-Dimensional Hydrologic Models Using Soil Moisture Observations under Urban Irrigation in a Desert Climate

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Volo, T. J.; Vivoni, E. R.; Martin, C. A.; Wang, Z.; Ruddell, B.

2012-12-01

Through the past several decades, rapid population growth in the arid American Southwest has dramatically changed patterns of plant-available water through municipal and residential irrigation systems that provide supplemental water to designed and managed urban landscape vegetation. Urban irrigation, including diversion of rainwater and addition of imported water, has thereby enabled the transformation of areas once covered by bare soil and low water-use, native desert plant species to large tracts of exotic, high water-use turf grass and shade trees. Despite the large percentage of residential water appropriated to irrigation purposes, models of urban hydrology often fail to include the impact that this anthropogenic input has on water, energy, and biomass conditions. This study utilizes two one-dimensional soil moisture models to examine the importance of representing different processes in a quantitative urban ecohydrology model under irrigation scenarios. Such processes include sub-daily energy fluxes, vertical redistribution of soil moisture, saturation- and infiltration-excess runoff mechanisms, seasonally variable irrigation scheduling, and soil moisture control on evapotranspiration rates. The analysis is informed by soil moisture observations from an experimental sensor network in the Phoenix, Arizona metropolitan area. The network includes data from several different landscape and irrigation treatments representative of pre- and post-development conditions in the region. By interpreting soil moisture levels in terms of plant water stress, this study analyzes the effectiveness of urban irrigation practices in arid climates. Furthermore, by identifying the necessary hydrologic processes to represent in an urban ecohydrology model, our results inform future work in adapting a distributed hydrologic model to desert urban settings where irrigation plays a significant role in minimizing plant water stress. An appropriate model of water and energy balances, calibrated using local meteorological forcing, can facilitate discussions with water managers and homeowners regarding optimal irrigation frequency, volume, duration, and seasonality for individual landscapes, while also aiding in water-efficient landscape design for growing cities in desert regions.

High-quality observation of surface imperviousness for urban runoff modelling using UAV imagery

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tokarczyk, P.; Leitao, J. P.; Rieckermann, J.; Schindler, K.; Blumensaat, F.

2015-01-01

Modelling rainfall-runoff in urban areas is increasingly applied to support flood risk assessment particularly against the background of a changing climate and an increasing urbanization. These models typically rely on high-quality data for rainfall and surface characteristics of the area. While recent research in urban drainage has been focusing on providing spatially detailed rainfall data, the technological advances in remote sensing that ease the acquisition of detailed land-use information are less prominently discussed within the community. The relevance of such methods increase as in many parts of the globe, accurate land-use information is generally lacking, because detailed image data is unavailable. Modern unmanned air vehicles (UAVs) allow acquiring high-resolution images on a local level at comparably lower cost, performing on-demand repetitive measurements, and obtaining a degree of detail tailored for the purpose of the study. In this study, we investigate for the first time the possibility to derive high-resolution imperviousness maps for urban areas from UAV imagery and to use this information as input for urban drainage models. To do so, an automatic processing pipeline with a modern classification method is tested and applied in a state-of-the-art urban drainage modelling exercise. In a real-life case study in the area of Lucerne, Switzerland, we compare imperviousness maps generated from a consumer micro-UAV and standard large-format aerial images acquired by the Swiss national mapping agency (swisstopo). After assessing their correctness, we perform an end-to-end comparison, in which they are used as an input for an urban drainage model. Then, we evaluate the influence which different image data sources and their processing methods have on hydrological and hydraulic model performance. We analyze the surface runoff of the 307 individual subcatchments regarding relevant attributes, such as peak runoff and volume. Finally, we evaluate the model's channel flow prediction performance through a cross-comparison with reference flow measured at the catchment outlet. We show that imperviousness maps generated using UAV imagery processed with modern classification methods achieve accuracy comparable with standard, off-the-shelf aerial imagery. In the examined case study, we find that the different imperviousness maps only have a limited influence on modelled surface runoff and pipe flows. We conclude that UAV imagery represents a valuable alternative data source for urban drainage model applications due to the possibility to flexibly acquire up-to-date aerial images at a superior quality and a competitive price. Our analyses furthermore suggest that spatially more detailed urban drainage models can even better benefit from the full detail of UAV imagery.

High resolution urban morphology data for urban wind flow modeling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cionco, Ronald M.; Ellefsen, Richard

The application of urban forestry methods and technologies to a number of practical problems can be further enhanced by the use and incorporation of localized, high resolution wind and temperature fields into their analysis methods. The numerical simulation of these micrometeorological fields will represent the interactions and influences of urban structures, vegetation elements, and variable terrain as an integral part of the dynamics of an urban domain. Detailed information of the natural and man-made components that make up the urban area is needed to more realistically model meteorological fields in urban domains. Simulating high resolution wind and temperatures over and through an urban domain utilizing detailed morphology data can also define and quantify local areas where urban forestry applications can contribute to better solutions. Applications such as the benefits of planting trees for shade purposes can be considered, planned, and evaluated for their impact on conserving energy and cooling costs as well as the possible reconfiguration or removal of trees and other barriers for improved airflow ventilation and similar processes. To generate these fields, a wind model must be provided, as a minimum, the location, type, height, structural silhouette, and surface roughness of these components, in order to account for the presence and effects of these land morphology features upon the ambient airflow. The morphology of Sacramento, CA has been characterized and quantified in considerable detail primarily for wind flow modeling, simulation, and analyses, but can also be used for improved meteorological analyses, urban forestry, urban planning, and other urban related activities. Morphology methods previously developed by Ellefsen are applied to the Sacramento scenario with a high resolution grid of 100 m × 100 m. The Urban Morphology Scheme defines Urban Terrain Zones (UTZ) according to how buildings and other urban elements are structured and placed with respect to each other. The urban elements within the 100 m × 100 m cells (one hectare) are further described and digitized as building height, building footprint (in percent), reflectivity of its roof, pitched roof or flat, building's long axis orientation, footprint of impervious surface and its reflectivity, footprint of canopy elements, footprint of woodlots, footprint of grass area, and footprint of water surface. A variety of maps, satellite images, low level aerial photographs, and street level photographs are the raw data used to quantify these urban properties. The final digitized morphology database resides in a spreadsheet ready for use on ordinary personal computers.

Modeling of the Urban Heat Island (UHI) using WRF - Assessment of adaptation and mitigation strategies for the city of Stuttgart.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fallmann, Joachim; Suppan, Peter; Emeis, Stefan

2013-04-01

Cities are warmer than their surroundings (called urban heat island, UHI). UHI influence urban atmospheric circulation, air quality, and ecological conditions. UHI leads to upward motion and compensating near-surface inflow from the surroundings which import rural trace substances. Chemical and aerosol formation processes are modified due to increased temperature, reduced humidity and modified urban-rural trace substance mixtures. UHIs produce enhanced heat stress for humans, animals and plants, less water availability and modified air quality. Growing cities and Climate Change will aggravate the UHI and its effects and urgently require adaptation and mitigation strategies. Prior to this, UHI properties must be assessed by surface observations, ground- and satellite-based vertical remote sensing and numerical modelling. The Weather Research and Forecasting Model (WRF) is an instrument to simulate and assess this phenomenon based on boundary conditions from observations and global climate models. Three urbanization schemes are available with WRF, which are tested during this study for different weather conditions in central Europe and will be enhanced if necessary. High resolution land use maps are used for this modeling effort. In situ measurements and Landsat thermal images are employed for validation of the results. The study will focus on the city of Stuttgart located in the south western part of Germany that is situated in a caldera-like orographic feature. This municipality has a long tradition in urban climate research and thus is well equipped with climatologic measurement stations. By using Geographical Information Systems (GIS), it is possible to simulate several scenarios for different surface properties. By increasing the albedo of roof and wall layers in the urban canopy model or by replacing urban land use by natural vegetation, simple urban planning strategies can be tested and the effect on urban heat island formation and air quality can be investigated. These numerical simulations will then be used to assess effectiveness and impact of planned adaptation and mitigation actions for the UHI under present and future climate conditions. Urban air quality is in the focus of these studies. The study is funded by EU-Project 3CE292P3 - "UHI - Development and application of mitigation and adaptation strategies and measures for counteracting the global UHI phenomenon."

Climate change impacts on rainfall extremes and urban drainage: state-of-the-art review

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Willems, Patrick; Olsson, Jonas; Arnbjerg-Nielsen, Karsten; Beecham, Simon; Pathirana, Assela; Bülow Gregersen, Ida; Madsen, Henrik; Nguyen, Van-Thanh-Van

2013-04-01

Under the umbrella of the IWA/IAHR Joint Committee on Urban Drainage, the International Working Group on Urban Rainfall (IGUR) has reviewed existing methodologies for the analysis of long-term historical and future trends in urban rainfall extremes and their effects on urban drainage systems, due to anthropogenic climate change. Current practises have several limitations and pitfalls, which are important to be considered by trend or climate change impact modellers and users of trend/impact results. The review considers the following aspects: Analysis of long-term historical trends due to anthropogenic climate change: influence of data limitation, instrumental or environmental changes, interannual variations and longer term climate oscillations on trend testing results. Analysis of long-term future trends due to anthropogenic climate change: by complementing empirical historical data with the results from physically-based climate models, dynamic downscaling to the urban scale by means of Limited Area Models (LAMs) including explicitly small-scale cloud processes; validation of RCM/GCM results for local conditions accounting for natural variability, limited length of the available time series, difference in spatial scales, and influence of climate oscillations; statistical downscaling methods combined with bias correction; uncertainties associated with the climate forcing scenarios, the climate models, the initial states and the statistical downscaling step; uncertainties in the impact models (e.g. runoff peak flows, flood or surcharge frequencies, and CSO frequencies and volumes), including the impacts of more extreme conditions than considered during impact model calibration and validation. Implications for urban drainage infrastructure design and management: upgrading of the urban drainage system as part of a program of routine and scheduled replacement and renewal of aging infrastructure; how to account for the uncertainties; flexible and sustainable solutions; adaptive approach that provides inherent flexibility and reversibility and avoids closing off options; importance of active learning. References: Willems, P., Olsson, J., Arnbjerg-Nielsen, K., Beecham, S., Pathirana, A., Bülow Gregersen, I., Madsen, H., Nguyen, V-T-V. (2012). Impacts of climate change on rainfall extremes and urban drainage. IWA Publishing, 252 p., Paperback Print ISBN 9781780401256; Ebook ISBN 9781780401263 Willems, P., Arnbjerg-Nielsen, K., Olsson, J., Nguyen, V.T.V. (2012), 'Climate change impact assessment on urban rainfall extremes and urban drainage: methods and shortcomings', Atmospheric Research, 103, 106-118

Roles of Urban Tree Canopy and Buildings in Urban Heat Island Effects: Parameterization and Preliminary Results

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Loughner, Christopher P.; Allen, Dale J.; Zhang, Da-Lin; Pickering, Kenneth E.; Dickerson, Russell R.; Landry, Laura

2012-01-01

Urban heat island (UHI) effects can strengthen heat waves and air pollution episodes. In this study, the dampening impact of urban trees on the UHI during an extreme heat wave in the Washington, D.C., and Baltimore, Maryland, metropolitan area is examined by incorporating trees, soil, and grass into the coupled Weather Research and Forecasting model and an urban canopy model (WRF-UCM). By parameterizing the effects of these natural surfaces alongside roadways and buildings, the modified WRF-UCM is used to investigate how urban trees, soil, and grass dampen the UHI. The modified model was run with 50% tree cover over urban roads and a 10% decrease in the width of urban streets to make space for soil and grass alongside the roads and buildings. Results show that, averaged over all urban areas, the added vegetation decreases surface air temperature in urban street canyons by 4.1 K and road-surface and building-wall temperatures by 15.4 and 8.9 K, respectively, as a result of tree shading and evapotranspiration. These temperature changes propagate downwind and alter the temperature gradient associated with the Chesapeake Bay breeze and, therefore, alter the strength of the bay breeze. The impact of building height on the UHI shows that decreasing commercial building heights by 8 m and residential building heights by 2.5 m results in up to 0.4-K higher daytime surface and near-surface air temperatures because of less building shading and up to 1.2-K lower nighttime temperatures because of less longwave radiative trapping in urban street canyons.

Rainfall-runoff simulation in urban hydology - An indoor physical model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Isidoro, Jorge; Silveira, Alexandre; da Silva, António; Gonçalves, Flávio; de Deus, Fábio; dos Reis, Simone

2015-04-01

According to the UN the current levels of urbanization are unprecedented and so is the number and size of the world's largest cities. Moreover, in the next four decades, all of the world's population growth is most likely to take place in urban areas. This growth will include a draw in some of the rural population through rural to urban migration. The increase in size of individual concentrations of people (e.g., cities) is a consequence of the urbanization process that has an important role on the rainfall-runoff process. This reality implies more attention to the study of urban flooding, among other natural hazards. This work aims to present a laboratory (indoor) physical model at a 1:100 scale of an urban area under simulated rainfall (pressurized nozzles). The model, a V-shaped rectangular area (2.00m × 4.00m) with the ability to adjust its longitudinal and transversal slopes, allows placing blocks simulating several geometries of buildings. This model was conceived and developed at the Institute of Science and Technology of the Federal University of Alfenas (MG) in Brazil, where it is used for research and teaching activities. Several experiments were completed in order to simulate the rainfall-runoff process over an impervious area with and without buildings, with distinct longitudinal and transversal slopes. Significant differences were found in the shape of the resulting hydrographs. This work will allow assessing the possibility of scaling the results obtained with this indoor model to a larger-scale (1:25 to 1:10) outdoor model which is currently being designed.

Modeling the human invader in the United States

USGS Publications Warehouse

Stohlgren, Thomas J.; Jarnevich, Catherine S.; Giri, Chandra P.

2010-01-01

Modern biogeographers recognize that humans are seen as constituents of ecosystems, drivers of significant change, and perhaps, the most invasive species on earth. We found it instructive to model humans as invasive organisms with the same environmental factors. We present a preliminary model of the spread of modern humans in the conterminous United States between 1992 and 2001 based on a subset of National Land Cover Data (NLCD), a time series LANDSAT product. We relied on the commonly used Maxent model, a species-environmental matching model, to map urbanization. Results: Urban areas represented 5.1% of the lower 48 states in 2001, an increase of 7.5% (18,112 km2) in the nine year period. At this rate, an area the size of Massachusetts is converted to urban land use every ten years. We used accepted models commonly used for mapping plant and animal distributions and found that climatic and environmental factors can strongly predict our spread (i.e., the conversion of forests, shrub/grass, and wetland areas into urban areas), with a 92.5% success rate (Area Under the Curve). Adding a roads layer in the model improved predictions to a 95.5% success rate. 8.8% of the 1-km2> cells in the conterminous U.S. now have a major road in them. In 2001, 0.8% of 1-km2 > cells in the U.S. had an urbanness value of > 800, (>89% of a 1-km2> cell is urban), while we predict that 24.5% of 1-km2> cells in the conterminous U.S. will be > 800 eventually. Main conclusion: Humans have a highly predictable pattern of urbanization based on climatic and topographic variables. Conservation strategies may benefit from that predictability.

Brief introductory guide to agent-based modeling and an illustration from urban health research.

PubMed

Auchincloss, Amy H; Garcia, Leandro Martin Totaro

2015-11-01

There is growing interest among urban health researchers in addressing complex problems using conceptual and computation models from the field of complex systems. Agent-based modeling (ABM) is one computational modeling tool that has received a lot of interest. However, many researchers remain unfamiliar with developing and carrying out an ABM, hindering the understanding and application of it. This paper first presents a brief introductory guide to carrying out a simple agent-based model. Then, the method is illustrated by discussing a previously developed agent-based model, which explored inequalities in diet in the context of urban residential segregation.

Brief introductory guide to agent-based modeling and an illustration from urban health research

PubMed Central

Auchincloss, Amy H.; Garcia, Leandro Martin Totaro

2017-01-01

There is growing interest among urban health researchers in addressing complex problems using conceptual and computation models from the field of complex systems. Agent-based modeling (ABM) is one computational modeling tool that has received a lot of interest. However, many researchers remain unfamiliar with developing and carrying out an ABM, hindering the understanding and application of it. This paper first presents a brief introductory guide to carrying out a simple agent-based model. Then, the method is illustrated by discussing a previously developed agent-based model, which explored inequalities in diet in the context of urban residential segregation. PMID:26648364

Top-down quantification of NOx emissions from traffic in an urban area using a high-resolution regional atmospheric chemistry model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kuik, Friderike; Kerschbaumer, Andreas; Lauer, Axel; Lupascu, Aurelia; von Schneidemesser, Erika; Butler, Tim M.

2018-06-01

With NO2 limit values being frequently exceeded in European cities, complying with the European air quality regulations still poses a problem for many cities. Traffic is typically a major source of NOx emissions in urban areas. High-resolution chemistry transport modelling can help to assess the impact of high urban NOx emissions on air quality inside and outside of urban areas. However, many modelling studies report an underestimation of modelled NOx and NO2 compared with observations. Part of this model bias has been attributed to an underestimation of NOx emissions, particularly in urban areas. This is consistent with recent measurement studies quantifying underestimations of urban NOx emissions by current emission inventories, identifying the largest discrepancies when the contribution of traffic NOx emissions is high. This study applies a high-resolution chemistry transport model in combination with ambient measurements in order to assess the potential underestimation of traffic NOx emissions in a frequently used emission inventory. The emission inventory is based on officially reported values and the Berlin-Brandenburg area in Germany is used as a case study. The WRF-Chem model is used at a 3 km × 3 km horizontal resolution, simulating the whole year of 2014. The emission data are downscaled from an original resolution of ca. 7 km × 7 km to a resolution of 1 km × 1 km. An in-depth model evaluation including spectral decomposition of observed and modelled time series and error apportionment suggests that an underestimation in traffic emissions is likely one of the main causes of the bias in modelled NO2 concentrations in the urban background, where NO2 concentrations are underestimated by ca. 8 µg m-3 (-30 %) on average over the whole year. Furthermore, a diurnal cycle of the bias in modelled NO2 suggests that a more realistic treatment of the diurnal cycle of traffic emissions might be needed. Model problems in simulating the correct mixing in the urban planetary boundary layer probably play an important role in contributing to the model bias, particularly in summer. Also taking into account this and other possible sources of model bias, a correction factor for traffic NOx emissions of ca. 3 is estimated for weekday daytime traffic emissions in the core urban area, which corresponds to an overall underestimation of traffic NOx emissions in the core urban area of ca. 50 %. Sensitivity simulations for the months of January and July using the calculated correction factor show that the weekday model bias can be improved from -8.8 µg m-3 (-26 %) to -5.4 µg m-3 (-16 %) in January on average in the urban background, and -10.3 µg m-3 (-46 %) to -7.6 µg m-3 (-34 %) in July. In addition, the negative bias of weekday NO2 concentrations downwind of the city in the rural and suburban background can be reduced from -3.4 µg m-3 (-12 %) to -1.2 µg m-3 (-4 %) in January and from -3.0 µg m-3 (-22 %) to -1.9 µg m-3 (-14 %) in July. The results and their consistency with findings from other studies suggest that more research is needed in order to more accurately understand the spatial and temporal variability in real-world NOx emissions from traffic, and apply this understanding to the inventories used in high-resolution chemical transport models.

Urban compaction or dispersion? An air quality modelling study

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Martins, Helena

2012-07-01

Urban sprawl is altering the landscape, with current trends pointing to further changes in land use that will, in turn, lead to changes in population, energy consumption, atmospheric emissions and air quality. Urban planners have debated on the most sustainable urban structure, with arguments in favour and against urban compaction and dispersion. However, it is clear that other areas of expertise have to be involved. Urban air quality and human exposure to atmospheric pollutants as indicators of urban sustainability can contribute to the discussion, namely through the study of the relation between urban structure and air quality. This paper addresses the issue by analysing the impacts of alternative urban growth patterns on the air quality of Porto urban region in Portugal, through a 1-year simulation with the MM5-CAMx modelling system. This region has been experiencing one of the highest European rates of urban sprawl, and at the same time presents a poor air quality. As part of the modelling system setup, a sensitivity study was conducted regarding different land use datasets and spatial distribution of emissions. Two urban development scenarios were defined, SPRAWL and COMPACT, together with their new land use and emission datasets; then meteorological and air quality simulations were performed. Results reveal that SPRAWL land use changes resulted in an average temperature increase of 0.4 °C, with local increases reaching as high as 1.5 °C. SPRAWL results also show an aggravation of PM10 annual average values and an increase in the exceedances to the daily limit value. For ozone, differences between scenarios were smaller, with SPRAWL presenting larger concentration differences than COMPACT. Finally, despite the higher concentrations found in SPRAWL, population exposure to the pollutants is higher for COMPACT because more inhabitants are found in areas of highest concentration levels.

Charecterisation and Modelling Urbanisation Pattern in Sillicon Valley of India

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Aithal, B. H.

2015-12-01

Urbanisation and Urban sprawl has led to environmental problems and large losses of arable land in India. In this study, we characterise pattern of urban growth and model urban sprawl by means of a combination of remote sensing, geographical information system, spatial metrics and CA based modelling. This analysis uses time-series data to explore and derive the potential political-socio-economic- land based driving forces behind urbanisation and urban sprawl, and spatial models in different scenarios to explore the spatio-temporal interactions and development. The study area applied is Greater Bangalore, for the period from 1973 to 2015. Further water bodies depletion, vegetation depletion, tree cover were also analysed to obtain specific region based results effecting global climate and regional balance. Agents were integrated successfully into modelling aspects to understand and foresee the landscape pattern change in urban morphology. The results reveal built-up paved surfaces has expanded towards the outskirts and have expanded into the buffer regions around the city. Population growth, economic, industrial developments in the city core and transportation development are still the main causes of urban sprawl in the region. Agent based model are considered to be to the traditional models. Agent Based modelling approach as seen in this paper clearly shown its effectiveness in capturing the micro dynamics and influence in its neighbourhood mapping. Greenhouse gas emission inventory has shown important aspects such as domestic sector to be one of the major impact categories in the region. Further tree cover reduced drastically and is evident from the statistics and determines that if city is in verge of creating a chaos in terms of human health and desertification. Study concludes that integration of remote sensing, GIS, and agent based modelling offers an excellent opportunity to explore the spatio-temporal variation and visulaisation of sprawling metropolitan region. This study give a complete overview of urbanisation and effects being caused due to urban sprawl in the region and help planners and city managers in understanding the future pockets and scenarios of urban growth.

Daily simulations of urban heat load in Vienna for 2011

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hollosi, Brigitta; Zuvela-Aloise, Maja; Koch, Roland

2014-05-01

In this study, the dynamical urban climate model MUKLIMO3 (horizontal resolution of 100 m) is uni-directionally coupled with the operational weather forecast model ALARO-ALADIN of the ZAMG (horizontal resolution of 4.8 km) to simulate the development of the urban heat island in Vienna on a daily basis. The aim is to evaluate the performance of the urban climate model applied for climatological studies in a weather prediction mode. The focus of the investigation is on assessment of the urban heat load during day-time. We used the archived daily forecast data for the summer period in 2011 (April - October) as input data for the urban climate model. The high resolution simulations were initialized with vertical profiles of temperature and relative humidity and prevailing wind speed and direction in the rural area near the city in the early morning hours. The model output for hourly temperature and relative humidity has been evaluated against the monitoring data at 9 weather stations in the area of the city. Additionally, spatial gradients in temperature were evaluated by comparing the grid point values with the data collected during a mobile measuring campaign taken on a multi-vehicle bicycle tour on the 7th of July, 2011. The results show a good agreement with observations on a district scale. Particular challenge in the modeling approach is achieving robust and numerically stable model solutions for different weather situation. Therefore, we analyzed modeled wind patterns for different atmospheric conditions in the summer period. We found that during the calm hot days, due to the inhomogeneous surface and complex terrain, the local-scale temperature gradients can induce strong anomalies, which in turn could affect the circulation on a larger scale. However, these results could not be validated due to the lack of observations. In the following years extreme hot conditions are very likely to occur more frequently and with higher intensity. Combining urban climate simulations with the operational meso-scale forecasting model may identify hot spots in urban areas and bring added value in excessive heat warning systems in the future.

Acceptance criteria for urban dispersion model evaluation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hanna, Steven; Chang, Joseph

2012-05-01

The authors suggested acceptance criteria for rural dispersion models' performance measures in this journal in 2004. The current paper suggests modified values of acceptance criteria for urban applications and tests them with tracer data from four urban field experiments. For the arc-maximum concentrations, the fractional bias should have a magnitude <0.67 (i.e., the relative mean bias is less than a factor of 2); the normalized mean-square error should be <6 (i.e., the random scatter is less than about 2.4 times the mean); and the fraction of predictions that are within a factor of two of the observations (FAC2) should be >0.3. For all data paired in space, for which a threshold concentration must always be defined, the normalized absolute difference should be <0.50, when the threshold is three times the instrument's limit of quantification (LOQ). An overall criterion is then applied that the total set of acceptance criteria should be satisfied in at least half of the field experiments. These acceptance criteria are applied to evaluations of the US Department of Defense's Joint Effects Model (JEM) with tracer data from US urban field experiments in Salt Lake City (U2000), Oklahoma City (JU2003), and Manhattan (MSG05 and MID05). JEM includes the SCIPUFF dispersion model with the urban canopy option and the urban dispersion model (UDM) option. In each set of evaluations, three or four likely options are tested for meteorological inputs (e.g., a local building top wind speed, the closest National Weather Service airport observations, or outputs from numerical weather prediction models). It is found that, due to large natural variability in the urban data, there is not a large difference between the performance measures for the two model options and the three or four meteorological input options. The more detailed UDM and the state-of-the-art numerical weather models do provide a slight improvement over the other options. The proposed urban dispersion model acceptance criteria are satisfied at over half of the field experiments.

Modeling and evaluation of urban pollution events of atmospheric heavy metals from a large Cu-smelter.

PubMed

Chen, Bing; Stein, Ariel F; Castell, Nuria; Gonzalez-Castanedo, Yolanda; Sanchez de la Campa, A M; de la Rosa, J D

2016-01-01

Metal smelting and processing are highly polluting activities that have a strong influence on the levels of heavy metals in air, soil, and crops. We employ an atmospheric transport and dispersion model to predict the pollution levels originated from the second largest Cu-smelter in Europe. The model predicts that the concentrations of copper (Cu), zinc (Zn), and arsenic (As) in an urban area close to the Cu-smelter can reach 170, 70, and 30 ng m−3, respectively. The model captures all the observed urban pollution events, but the magnitude of the elemental concentrations is predicted to be lower than that of the observed values; ~300, ~500, and ~100 ng m−3 for Cu, Zn, and As, respectively. The comparison between model and observations showed an average correlation coefficient of 0.62 ± 0.13. The simulation shows that the transport of heavy metals reaches a peak in the afternoon over the urban area. The under-prediction in the peak is explained by the simulated stronger winds compared with monitoring data. The stronger simulated winds enhance the transport and dispersion of heavy metals to the regional area, diminishing the impact of pollution events in the urban area. This model, driven by high resolution meteorology (2 km in horizontal), predicts the hourly-interval evolutions of atmospheric heavy metal pollutions in the close by urban area of industrial hotspot.

Research on Influence and Prediction Model of Urban Traffic Link Tunnel curvature on Fire Temperature Based on Pyrosim--SPSS Multiple Regression Analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, Xiao Ju; Yao, Kun; Dai, Jun Yu; Song, Yun Long

2018-05-01

The underground space, also known as the “fourth dimension” of the city, reflects the efficient use of urban development intensive. Urban traffic link tunnel is a typical underground limited-length space. Due to the geographical location, the special structure of space and the curvature of the tunnel, high-temperature smoke can easily form the phenomenon of “smoke turning” and the fire risk is extremely high. This paper takes an urban traffic link tunnel as an example to focus on the relationship between curvature and the temperature near the fire source, and use the pyrosim built different curvature fire model to analyze the influence of curvature on the temperature of the fire, then using SPSS Multivariate regression analysis simulate curvature of the tunnel and fire temperature data. Finally, a prediction model of urban traffic link tunnel curvature on fire temperature was proposed. The regression model analysis and test show that the curvature is negatively correlated with the tunnel temperature. This model is feasible and can provide a theoretical reference for the urban traffic link tunnel fire protection design and the preparation of the evacuation plan. And also, it provides some reference for other related curved tunnel curvature design and smoke control measures.

Assessing the urban water balance: the Urban Water Flow Model and its application in Cyprus.

PubMed

Charalambous, Katerina; Bruggeman, Adriana; Lange, Manfred A

2012-01-01

Modelling the urban water balance enables the understanding of the interactions of water within an urban area and allows for better management of water resources. However, few models today provide a comprehensive overview of all water sources and uses. The objective of the current paper was to develop a user-friendly tool that quantifies and visualizes all water flows, losses and inefficiencies in urban environments. The Urban Water Flow Model was implemented in a spreadsheet and includes a water-savings application that computes the contributions of user-selected saving options to the overall water balance. The model was applied to the coastal town of Limassol, Cyprus, for the hydrologic years 2003/04-2008/09. Data were collected from the different authorities and hydrologic equations and estimations were added to complete the balance. Average precipitation was 363 mm/yr, amounting to 25.4 × 10(6)m(3)/yr, more than double the annual potable water supply to the town. Surface runoff constituted 29.6% of all outflows, while evapotranspiration from impervious areas was 21.6%. Possible potable water savings for 2008/09 were estimated at 5.3 × 10(3) m(3), which is 50% of the total potable water provided to the area. This saving would also result in a 6% reduction of surface runoff.

The influence of the interactions between anthropogenic activities and multiple ecological factors on land surface temperatures of urban forests

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ren, Y.

2017-12-01

Context Land surface temperatures (LSTs) spatio-temporal distribution pattern of urban forests are influenced by many ecological factors; the identification of interaction between these factors can improve simulations and predictions of spatial patterns of urban cold islands. This quantitative research requires an integrated method that combines multiple sources data with spatial statistical analysis. Objectives The purpose of this study was to clarify urban forest LST influence interaction between anthropogenic activities and multiple ecological factors using cluster analysis of hot and cold spots and Geogdetector model. We introduced the hypothesis that anthropogenic activity interacts with certain ecological factors, and their combination influences urban forests LST. We also assumed that spatio-temporal distributions of urban forest LST should be similar to those of ecological factors and can be represented quantitatively. Methods We used Jinjiang as a representative city in China as a case study. Population density was employed to represent anthropogenic activity. We built up a multi-source data (forest inventory, digital elevation models (DEM), population, and remote sensing imagery) on a unified urban scale to support urban forest LST influence interaction research. Through a combination of spatial statistical analysis results, multi-source spatial data, and Geogdetector model, the interaction mechanisms of urban forest LST were revealed. Results Although different ecological factors have different influences on forest LST, in two periods with different hot spots and cold spots, the patch area and dominant tree species were the main factors contributing to LST clustering in urban forests. The interaction between anthropogenic activity and multiple ecological factors increased LST in urban forest stands, linearly and nonlinearly. Strong interactions between elevation and dominant species were generally observed and were prevalent in either hot or cold spots areas in different years. Conclusions In conclusion, a combination of spatial statistics and GeogDetector models should be effective for quantitatively evaluating interactive relationships among ecological factors, anthropogenic activity and LST.

Comparing the urbanization and global warming impacts on extreme rainfall characteristics in Southern China Pearl River Delta megacity based on dynamical downscaling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fung, K. Y.; Tam, C. Y.; Wang, Z.

2017-12-01

It is well known that urban land use can significantly influence the local temperature, precipitation and meteorology through altering land-atmosphere exchange of momentum, moisture and heat in urban areas. In recent decades, there has been a substantial increase ( 5-10%) on the intensity of extreme rainfall over Southeast China; it is projected to increase further according to the latest IPCC reports. In this study, we assess how urbanization and global warming together might impact on heavy precipitation characteristics over the highly urbanized Pearl River Delta (PRD) megacity, located in southern China. This is done by dynamically downscaling GFDL-ESM2M simulations for the present and future (RCP8.5) climate scenarios, using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model coupled with a single-layer urban canopy model (UCM). Over the PRD area, the WRF model is integrated at a resolution of 2km x 2km. To focus on extreme events, episodes covering daily rainfall intensity above the 99th percentile in Southeast China in the GFDL-ESM2M daily precipitation datasets were first identified. These extreme episodes were then dynamically downscaled in two parallel experiments with the following model designs: one with anthropogenic heat flux (AH) = 0 Wm-2 and the other with peak AH = 300 Wm-2 in the AH diurnal cycle over the urban domain. Results show that, with AH in urban area, the urban 2m-temperature can rise by about 2oC. This in turn leads to an increase of the mean as well as the extreme rain rates by 10-15% in urban domain. The latter is comparable to the impact of global warming alone, according to downscaling experiments for the RCP8.5 scenario. Implications of our results on urban effects on extreme rainfall under a warming background climate will be discussed.

Urban growth and landscape connectivity threats assessment at Saguaro National Park, Arizona, USA

USGS Publications Warehouse

Perkl, Ryan; Norman, Laura M.; Mitchell, David; Feller, Mark R.; Smith, Garrett; Wilson, Natalie R.

2018-01-01

Urban and exurban expansion results in habitat and biodiversity loss globally. We hypothesize that a coupled-model approach could connect urban planning for future cities with landscape ecology to consider wildland habitat connectivity. Our work combines urban growth simulations with models of wildlife corridors to examine how species will be impacted by development to test this hypothesis. We leverage a land use change model (SLEUTH) with structural and functional landscape-connectivity modeling techniques to ascertain the spatial extent and locations of connectivity related threats to a national park in southern Arizona, USA, and describe how protected areas might be impacted by urban expansion. Results of projected growth significantly altered structural connectivity (80%) when compared to current (baseline) corridor conditions. Moreover, projected growth impacted functional connectivity differently amongst species, indicating resilience of some species and near-complete displacement of others. We propose that implementing a geospatial-design-based model will allow for a better understanding of the impacts management decisions have on wildlife populations. The application provides the potential to understand both human and environmental impacts of land-system dynamics, critical for long-term sustainability.

A Backward-Lagrangian-Stochastic Footprint Model for the Urban Environment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Chenghao; Wang, Zhi-Hua; Yang, Jiachuan; Li, Qi

2018-02-01

Built terrains, with their complexity in morphology, high heterogeneity, and anthropogenic impact, impose substantial challenges in Earth-system modelling. In particular, estimation of the source areas and footprints of atmospheric measurements in cities requires realistic representation of the landscape characteristics and flow physics in urban areas, but has hitherto been heavily reliant on large-eddy simulations. In this study, we developed physical parametrization schemes for estimating urban footprints based on the backward-Lagrangian-stochastic algorithm, with the built environment represented by street canyons. The vertical profile of mean streamwise velocity is parametrized for the urban canopy and boundary layer. Flux footprints estimated by the proposed model show reasonable agreement with analytical predictions over flat surfaces without roughness elements, and with experimental observations over sparse plant canopies. Furthermore, comparisons of canyon flow and turbulence profiles and the subsequent footprints were made between the proposed model and large-eddy simulation data. The results suggest that the parametrized canyon wind and turbulence statistics, based on the simple similarity theory used, need to be further improved to yield more realistic urban footprint modelling.

The use of LiDAR-derived high-resolution DSM and intensity data to support modelling of urban flooding

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Aktaruzzaman, Md.; Schmitt, Theo G.

2011-11-01

This paper addresses the issue of a detailed representation of an urban catchment in terms of hydraulic and hydrologic attributes. Modelling of urban flooding requires a detailed knowledge of urban surface characteristics. The advancement in spatial data acquisition technology such as airborne LiDAR (Light Detection and Ranging) has greatly facilitated the collection of high-resolution topographic information. While the use of the LiDAR-derived Digital Surface Model (DSM) has gained popularity over the last few years as input data for a flood simulation model, the use of LiDAR intensity data has remained largely unexplored in this regard. LiDAR intensity data are acquired along with elevation data during the data collection mission by an aircraft. The practice of using of just aerial images with RGB (Red, Green and Blue) wavebands is often incapable of identifying types of surface under the shadow. On the other hand, LiDAR intensity data can provide surface information independent of sunlight conditions. The focus of this study is the use of intensity data in combination with aerial images to accurately map pervious and impervious urban areas. This study presents an Object-Based Image Analysis (OBIA) framework for detecting urban land cover types, mainly pervious and impervious surfaces in order to improve the rainfall-runoff modelling. Finally, this study shows the application of highresolution DSM and land cover maps to flood simulation software in order to visualize the depth and extent of urban flooding phenomena.

Effects of canyon geometry on the distribution of traffic-related air pollution in a large urban area: Implications of a multi-canyon air pollution dispersion model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fu, Xiangwen; Liu, Junfeng; Ban-Weiss, George A.; Zhang, Jiachen; Huang, Xin; Ouyang, Bin; Popoola, Olalekan; Tao, Shu

2017-09-01

Street canyons are ubiquitous in urban areas. Traffic-related air pollutants in street canyons can adversely affect human health. In this study, an urban-scale traffic pollution dispersion model is developed considering street distribution, canyon geometry, background meteorology, traffic assignment, traffic emissions and air pollutant dispersion. In the model, vehicle exhausts generated from traffic flows first disperse inside street canyons along the micro-scale wind field generated by computational fluid dynamics (CFD) model. Then, pollutants leave the street canyon and further disperse over the urban area. On the basis of this model, the effects of canyon geometry on the distribution of NOx and CO from traffic emissions were studied over the center of Beijing. We found that an increase in building height leads to heavier pollution inside canyons and lower pollution outside canyons at pedestrian level, resulting in higher domain-averaged concentrations over the area. In addition, canyons with highly even or highly uneven building heights on each side of the street tend to lower the urban-scale air pollution concentrations at pedestrian level. Further, increasing street widths tends to lead to lower pollutant concentrations by reducing emissions and enhancing ventilation simultaneously. Our results indicate that canyon geometry strongly influences human exposure to traffic pollutants in the populated urban area. Carefully planning street layout and canyon geometry while considering traffic demand as well as local weather patterns may significantly reduce inhalation of unhealthy air by urban residents.

Computing Pathways for Urban Decarbonization.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cremades, R.; Sommer, P.

2016-12-01

Urban areas emit roughly three quarters of global carbon emissions. Cities are crucial elements for a decarbonized society. Urban expansion and related transportation needs lead to increased energy use, and to carbon-intensive lock-ins that create barriers for climate change mitigation globally. The authors present the Integrated Urban Complexity (IUC) model, based on self-organizing Cellular Automata (CA), and use it to produce a new kind of spatially explicit Transformation Pathways for Urban Decarbonization (TPUD). IUC is based on statistical evidence relating the energy needed for transportation with the spatial distribution of population, specifically IUC incorporates variables from complexity science related to urban form, like the slope of the rank-size rule or spatial entropy, which brings IUC a step beyond existing models. The CA starts its evolution with real-world urban land use and population distribution data from the Global Human Settlement Layer. Thus, the IUC model runs over existing urban settlements, transforming the spatial distribution of population so the energy consumption for transportation is minimized. The statistical evidence that governs the evolution of the CA departs from the database of the International Association of Public Transport. A selected case is presented using Stuttgart (Germany) as an example. The results show how IUC varies urban density in those places where it improves the performance of crucial parameters related to urban form, producing a TPUD that shows where the spatial distribution of population should be modified with a degree of detail of 250 meters of cell size. The TPUD shows how the urban complex system evolves over time to minimize energy consumption for transportation. The resulting dynamics or urban decarbonization show decreased energy per capita, although total energy increases for increasing population. The results provide innovative insights: by checking current urban planning against a TPUD, urban planners could understand where existing plans contradict the Agenda 2030, primarily the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) Climate Action (SDG 13), and Sustainable Cities and Communities (SDG 11). For the first time, evidence-based transformation pathways are produced to decarbonize cities.

Urban photogrammetric data base for multi-purpose cadastral-based information systems: the Riyadh city case

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Al-garni, Abdullah M.

Urban information systems are economic resources that can benefit decision makers in the planning, development, and management of urban projects and resources. In this research, a conceptual model-based prototype Urban Geographic Information System (UGIS) is developed. The base maps used in developing the system and acquiring visual attributes are obtained from aerial photographs. The system is a multi-purpose parcel-based one that can serve many urban applications such as public utilities, health centres, schools, population estimation, road engineering and maintenance, and many others. A modern region in the capital city of Saudi Arabia is used for the study. The developed model is operational for one urban application (population estimation) and is tested for that particular application. The results showed that the system has a satisfactory accuracy and that it may well be promising for other similar urban applications in countries with similar demographic and social characteristics.

Comparison of conceptually based and regression rainfall-runoff models, Denver Metropolitan area, Colorado, and potential applications in urban areas

USGS Publications Warehouse

Lindner-Lunsford, J. B.; Ellis, S.R.

1987-01-01

Multievent, conceptually based models and a single-event, multiple linear-regression model for estimating storm-runoff quantity and quality from urban areas were calibrated and verified for four small (57 to 167 acres) basins in the Denver metropolitan area, Colorado. The basins represented different land-use types - light commercial, single-family housing, and multi-family housing. Both types of models were calibrated using the same data set for each basin. A comparison was made between the storm-runoff volume, peak flow, and storm-runoff loads of seven water quality constituents simulated by each of the models by use of identical verification data sets. The models studied were the U.S. Geological Survey 's Distributed Routing Rainfall-Runoff Model-Version II (DR3M-II) (a runoff-quantity model designed for urban areas), and a multievent urban runoff quality model (DR3M-QUAL). Water quality constituents modeled were chemical oxygen demand, total suspended solids, total nitrogen, total phosphorus, total lead, total manganese, and total zinc. (USGS)

24 CFR 3285.804 - Bottom board repair.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-04-01

... 24 Housing and Urban Development 5 2010-04-01 2010-04-01 false Bottom board repair. 3285.804 Section 3285.804 Housing and Urban Development Regulations Relating to Housing and Urban Development... URBAN DEVELOPMENT MODEL MANUFACTURED HOME INSTALLATION STANDARDS Exterior and Interior Close-Up § 3285...

The Fusion Model of Intelligent Transportation Systems Based on the Urban Traffic Ontology

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yang, Wang-Dong; Wang, Tao

On these issues unified representation of urban transport information using urban transport ontology, it defines the statute and the algebraic operations of semantic fusion in ontology level in order to achieve the fusion of urban traffic information in the semantic completeness and consistency. Thus this paper takes advantage of the semantic completeness of the ontology to build urban traffic ontology model with which we resolve the problems as ontology mergence and equivalence verification in semantic fusion of traffic information integration. Information integration in urban transport can increase the function of semantic fusion, and reduce the amount of data integration of urban traffic information as well enhance the efficiency and integrity of traffic information query for the help, through the practical application of intelligent traffic information integration platform of Changde city, the paper has practically proved that the semantic fusion based on ontology increases the effect and efficiency of the urban traffic information integration, reduces the storage quantity, and improve query efficiency and information completeness.

Impact assessment of PM10 cement plants emissions on urban air quality using the SCIPUFF dispersion model.

PubMed

Leone, Vincenzo; Cervone, Guido; Iovino, Pasquale

2016-09-01

The Second-order Closure Integrated Puff (SCIPUFF) model was used to study the impact on urban air quality caused by two cement plants emissions located near the city of Caserta, Italy, during the entire year of 2015. The simulated and observed PM10 concentrations were compared using three monitoring stations located in urban and sub-urban area of Caserta city. Both simulated and observed concentrations are shown to be highest in winter, lower in autumn and spring and lowest in summer. Model results generally follow the pattern of the observed concentrations but have a systematic under-prediction of the concentration values. Measures of the bias, NMSE and RMSE indicate a good correlation between observed and estimated values. The SCIPUFF model data analysis suggest that the cement plants are major sources for the measured PM10 values and are responsible for the deterioration of the urban air quality in the city of Caserta.

Why do people move? Enhancing human mobility prediction using local functions based on public records and SNS data

PubMed Central

Park, Juyong

2018-01-01

The quality of life for people in urban regions can be improved by predicting urban human mobility and adjusting urban planning accordingly. In this study, we compared several possible variables to verify whether a gravity model (a human mobility prediction model borrowed from Newtonian mechanics) worked as well in inner-city regions as it did in intra-city regions. We reviewed the resident population, the number of employees, and the number of SNS posts as variables for generating mass values for an urban traffic gravity model. We also compared the straight-line distance, travel distance, and the impact of time as possible distance values. We defined the functions of urban regions on the basis of public records and SNS data to reflect the diverse social factors in urban regions. In this process, we conducted a dimension reduction method for the public record data and used a machine learning-based clustering algorithm for the SNS data. In doing so, we found that functional distance could be defined as the Euclidean distance between social function vectors in urban regions. Finally, we examined whether the functional distance was a variable that had a significant impact on urban human mobility. PMID:29432440

Impact of Extensive Urbanization on Summertime Rainfall in the Beijing Region and the Role of Local Precipitation Recycling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Jun; Feng, Jinming; Yan, Zhongwei

2018-04-01

In this study, we conducted nested high-resolution simulations using the Weather Research and Forecasting model coupled with a single-layer urban canopy model to investigate the impact of extensive urbanization on regional precipitation over the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region in China. The results showed that extensive urbanization decreased precipitation considerably over and downwind of Beijing city. The prevalence of impermeable urban land inhibits local evaporation that feeds moisture into the overlying atmosphere, decreasing relative humidity and atmospheric instability. The dynamic precipitation recycling model was employed to estimate the precipitation that originates from local surface evaporation and large-scale advection of moisture. Results showed that about 11% of the urbanization-induced decrease in total precipitation over the Greater Beijing Region and its surroundings was contributed by the decrease in local recycled precipitation, while the other part (89%) was due to decreasing large-scale advected precipitation. Results suggest that the low evaporation from urban land surfaces not only reduces the supply of water vapor for local recycled precipitation directly but also decreases the convective available potential energy and hence the conversion efficiency of atmospheric moisture into rainfall. The urbanization-induced variations in local recycled precipitation were found to be correlated with the net atmospheric moisture flux on a monthly time scale.

Removal of Ozone by Urban and Peri-Urban Forests: Evidence from Laboratory, Field, and Modeling Approaches.

PubMed

Calfapietra, Carlo; Morani, Arianna; Sgrigna, Gregorio; Di Giovanni, Sara; Muzzini, Valerio; Pallozzi, Emanuele; Guidolotti, Gabriele; Nowak, David; Fares, Silvano

2016-01-01

A crucial issue in urban environments is the interaction between urban trees and atmospheric pollution, particularly ozone (O). Ozone represents one of the most harmful pollutants in urban and peri-urban environments, especially in warm climates. Besides the large interest in reducing anthropogenic and biogenic precursors of O emissions, there is growing scientific activity aimed at understanding O removal by vegetation, particularly trees. The intent of this paper is to provide the state of the art and suggestions to improve future studies of O fluxes and to discuss implications of O flux studies to maximize environmental services through the planning and management of urban forests. To evaluate and quantify the potential of O removal in urban and peri-urban forests, we describe experimental approaches to measure O fluxes, distinguishing laboratory experiments, field measurements, and model estimates, including recent case studies. We discuss the strengths and weaknesses of the different approaches and conclude that the combination of the three levels of investigation is essential for estimating O removal by urban trees. We also comment on the implications of these findings for planning and management of urban forests, suggesting some key issues that should be considered to maximize O removal by urban and peri-urban forests. Copyright © by the American Society of Agronomy, Crop Science Society of America, and Soil Science Society of America, Inc.

Monitoring the Urban Tree Cover for Urban Ecosystem Services - The Case of Leipzig, Germany

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Banzhaf, E.; Kollai, H.

2015-04-01

Urban dynamics such as (extreme) growth and shrinkage bring about fundamental challenges for urban land use and related changes. In order to achieve a sustainable urban development, it is crucial to monitor urban green infrastructure at microscale level as it provides various urban ecosystem services in neighbourhoods, supporting quality of life and environmental health. We monitor urban trees by means of a multiple data set to get a detailed knowledge on its distribution and change over a decade for the entire city. We have digital orthophotos, a digital elevation model and a digital surface model. The refined knowledge on the absolute height above ground helps to differentiate tree tops. Grounded on an object-based image analysis scheme a detailed mapping of trees in an urbanized environment is processed. Results show high accuracy of tree detection and avoidance of misclassification due to shadows. The study area is the City of Leipzig, Germany. One of the leading German cities, it is home to contiguous community allotments that characterize the configuration of the city. Leipzig has one of the most well-preserved floodplain forests in Europe.

Microscale Obstacle Resolving Air Quality Model Evaluation with the Michelstadt Case

PubMed Central

Rakai, Anikó; Kristóf, Gergely

2013-01-01

Modelling pollutant dispersion in cities is challenging for air quality models as the urban obstacles have an important effect on the flow field and thus the dispersion. Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) models with an additional scalar dispersion transport equation are a possible way to resolve the flowfield in the urban canopy and model dispersion taking into consideration the effect of the buildings explicitly. These models need detailed evaluation with the method of verification and validation to gain confidence in their reliability and use them as a regulatory purpose tool in complex urban geometries. This paper shows the performance of an open source general purpose CFD code, OpenFOAM for a complex urban geometry, Michelstadt, which has both flow field and dispersion measurement data. Continuous release dispersion results are discussed to show the strengths and weaknesses of the modelling approach, focusing on the value of the turbulent Schmidt number, which was found to give best statistical metric results with a value of 0.7. PMID:24027450

Microscale obstacle resolving air quality model evaluation with the Michelstadt case.

PubMed

Rakai, Anikó; Kristóf, Gergely

2013-01-01

Modelling pollutant dispersion in cities is challenging for air quality models as the urban obstacles have an important effect on the flow field and thus the dispersion. Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) models with an additional scalar dispersion transport equation are a possible way to resolve the flowfield in the urban canopy and model dispersion taking into consideration the effect of the buildings explicitly. These models need detailed evaluation with the method of verification and validation to gain confidence in their reliability and use them as a regulatory purpose tool in complex urban geometries. This paper shows the performance of an open source general purpose CFD code, OpenFOAM for a complex urban geometry, Michelstadt, which has both flow field and dispersion measurement data. Continuous release dispersion results are discussed to show the strengths and weaknesses of the modelling approach, focusing on the value of the turbulent Schmidt number, which was found to give best statistical metric results with a value of 0.7.

Urban Modification of Convection and Rainfall in Complex Terrain

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Freitag, B. M.; Nair, U. S.; Niyogi, D.

2018-03-01

Despite a globally growing proportion of cities located in regions of complex terrain, interactions between urbanization and complex terrain and their meteorological impacts are not well understood. We utilize numerical model simulations and satellite data products to investigate such impacts over San Miguel de Tucumán, Argentina. Numerical modeling experiments show urbanization results in 20-30% less precipitation downwind of the city and an eastward shift in precipitation upwind. Our experiments show that changes in surface energy, boundary layer dynamics, and thermodynamics induced by urbanization interact synergistically with the persistent forcing of atmospheric flow by complex terrain. With urbanization increasing in mountainous regions, land-atmosphere feedbacks can exaggerate meteorological forcings leading to weather impacts that require important considerations for sustainable development of urban regions within complex terrain.

Validation of urban freeway models. [supporting datasets

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2015-01-01

The goal of the SHRP 2 Project L33 Validation of Urban Freeway Models was to assess and enhance the predictive travel time reliability models developed in the SHRP 2 Project L03, Analytic Procedures for Determining the Impacts of Reliability Mitigati...

Urban Modelling Performance of Next Generation SAR Missions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sefercik, U. G.; Yastikli, N.; Atalay, C.

2017-09-01

In synthetic aperture radar (SAR) technology, urban mapping and modelling have become possible with revolutionary missions TerraSAR-X (TSX) and Cosmo-SkyMed (CSK) since 2007. These satellites offer 1m spatial resolution in high-resolution spotlight imaging mode and capable for high quality digital surface model (DSM) acquisition for urban areas utilizing interferometric SAR (InSAR) technology. With the advantage of independent generation from seasonal weather conditions, TSX and CSK DSMs are much in demand by scientific users. The performance of SAR DSMs is influenced by the distortions such as layover, foreshortening, shadow and double-bounce depend up on imaging geometry. In this study, the potential of DSMs derived from convenient 1m high-resolution spotlight (HS) InSAR pairs of CSK and TSX is validated by model-to-model absolute and relative accuracy estimations in an urban area. For the verification, an airborne laser scanning (ALS) DSM of the study area was used as the reference model. Results demonstrated that TSX and CSK urban DSMs are compatible in open, built-up and forest land forms with the absolute accuracy of 8-10 m. The relative accuracies based on the coherence of neighbouring pixels are superior to absolute accuracies both for CSK and TSX.

Model architecture of intelligent data mining oriented urban transportation information

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yang, Bogang; Tao, Yingchun; Sui, Jianbo; Zhang, Feizhou

2007-06-01

Aiming at solving practical problems in urban traffic, the paper presents model architecture of intelligent data mining from hierarchical view. With artificial intelligent technologies used in the framework, the intelligent data mining technology improves, which is more suitable for the change of real-time road condition. It also provides efficient technology support for the urban transport information distribution, transmission and display.

Senge's Learning Organization and Teachers' Perceptions of Leadership at an Elementary School in Urban Ohio

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Moore, Robert J.

2010-01-01

Urban public schools in the United States face the problem of failure to reach academic goals of performance mandated by the No Child Left Behind Act. It was hypothesized that use of Senge's leadership model might result in academic performance in one urban elementary school. Based on Senge's shared vision leadership model as the theoretical…

Less Hope, More Paint: On the Political War Being Waged in Urban Contexts

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Boda, Phillip A.

2017-01-01

In this response to the call for transformative models of teaching students in urban contexts, the author presents his own experiences in becoming a critical pedagogue, the path that led him there, and three models of classrooms that he sees in such contexts. He emphasizes the need to reject an apolitical stance in urban education, and provides a…

The value of urban tree cover: A hedonic property price model in Ramsey and Dakota Counties, Minnesota, USA

Treesearch

Heather Sander; Stephen Polasky; Robert. Haight

2010-01-01

Urban tree cover benefits communities. These benefits' economic values, however, are poorly recognized and often ignored by landowners and planners. We use hedonic property price modeling to estimate urban tree cover's value in Dakota and Ramsey Counties, MN, USA, predicting housing value as a function of structural, neighborhood, and environmental variables...

Analyzing the efficacy of subtropical urban forests in offsetting carbon emissions from cities

Treesearch

Francisco Escobedo; Sebastian Varela; Min Zhao; John E. Wagner; Wayne Zipperer

2010-01-01

Urban forest management and policies have been promoted as a tool to mitigate carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions. This study used existing CO2 reduction measures from subtropical Miami-Dade and Gainesville, USA and modeled carbon storage and sequestration by trees to analyze policies that use urban forests to offset carbon emissions. Field data were analyzed, modeled, and...

Association of long-term PM2.5 exposure with mortality using different air pollution exposure models: impacts in rural and urban California.

PubMed

Garcia, Cynthia A; Yap, Poh-Sin; Park, Hye-Youn; Weller, Barbara L

2016-01-01

Most PM2.5-associated mortality studies are not conducted in rural areas where mortality rates may differ when population characteristics, health care access, and PM2.5 composition differ. PM2.5-associated mortality was investigated in the elderly residing in rural-urban zip codes. Exposure (2000-2006) was estimated using different models and Poisson regression was performed using 2006 mortality data. PM2.5 models estimated comparable exposures, although subtle differences were observed in rate ratios (RR) within areas by health outcomes. Cardiovascular disease (CVD), ischemic heart disease (IHD), and cardiopulmonary disease (CPD), mortality was significantly associated with rural, urban, and statewide chronic PM2.5 exposures. We observed larger effect sizes in RRs for CVD, CPD, and all-cause (AC) with similar sizes for IHD mortality in rural areas compared to urban areas. PM2.5 was significantly associated with AC mortality in rural areas and statewide; however, in urban areas, only the most restrictive exposure model showed an association. Given the results seen, future mortality studies should consider adjusting for differences with rural-urban variables.

Numerical Studies of Thermal Conditions in Cities - Systematic Model Simulations of Idealized Urban Domains

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Heene, V.; Buchholz, S.; Kossmann, M.

2016-12-01

Numerical studies of thermal conditions in cities based on model simulations of idealized urban domains are carried out to investigate how changes in the characteristics of urban areas influence street level air temperatures. The simulated modifications of the urban characteristics represent possible adaptation measures for heat reduction in cities, which are commonly used in urban planning. Model simulations are performed with the thermodynamic version of the 3-dimensional micro-scale urban climate model MUKLIMO_3. The simulated idealized urban areas are designed in a simplistic way, i. e. defining homogeneous squared cities of one settlement type, without orography and centered in the model domain. To assess the impact of different adaptation measures the characteristics of the urban areas have been systematically modified regarding building height, albedo of building roof and impervious surfaces, fraction of impervious surfaces between buildings, and percentage of green roofs. To assess the impact of green and blue infrastructure in cities, different configurations for parks and lakes have been investigated - e. g. varying size and distribution within the city. The experiments are performed for different combinations of typical German settlement types and surrounding rural types under conditions of a typical summer day in July. The adaptation measures implemented in the experiments show different impacts for different settlement types mainly due to the differences in building density, building height or impervious surface fraction. Parks and lakes implemented as adaptation measure show strong potential to reduce daytime air temperature, with cooling effects on their built-up surroundings. At night lakes generate negative and positive effects on air temperature, depending on water temperature. In general, all adaptation measures implemented in experiments reveal different impacts on day and night air temperature.

PREFACE SPECIAL ISSUE ON MODEL EVALUATION: EVALUATION OF URBAN AND REGIONAL EULERIAN AIR QUALITY MODELS

EPA Science Inventory

The "Preface to the Special Edition on Model Evaluation: Evaluation of Urban and Regional Eulerian Air Quality Models" is a brief introduction to the papers included in a special issue of Atmospheric Environment. The Preface provides a background for the papers, which have thei...

Parameterizing Urban Canopy Layer transport in an Lagrangian Particle Dispersion Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Stöckl, Stefan; Rotach, Mathias W.

2016-04-01

The percentage of people living in urban areas is rising worldwide, crossed 50% in 2007 and is even higher in developed countries. High population density and numerous sources of air pollution in close proximity can lead to health issues. Therefore it is important to understand the nature of urban pollutant dispersion. In the last decades this field has experienced considerable progress, however the influence of large roughness elements is complex and has as of yet not been completely described. Hence, this work studied urban particle dispersion close to source and ground. It used an existing, steady state, three-dimensional Lagrangian particle dispersion model, which includes Roughness Sublayer parameterizations of turbulence and flow. The model is valid for convective and neutral to stable conditions and uses the kernel method for concentration calculation. As most Lagrangian models, its lower boundary is the zero-plane displacement, which means that roughly the lower two-thirds of the mean building height are not included in the model. This missing layer roughly coincides with the Urban Canopy Layer. An earlier work "traps" particles hitting the lower model boundary for a recirculation period, which is calculated under the assumption of a vortex in skimming flow, before "releasing" them again. The authors hypothesize that improving the lower boundary condition by including Urban Canopy Layer transport could improve model predictions. This was tested herein by not only trapping the particles, but also advecting them with a mean, parameterized flow in the Urban Canopy Layer. Now the model calculates the trapping period based on either recirculation due to vortex motion in skimming flow regimes or vertical velocity if no vortex forms, depending on incidence angle of the wind on a randomly chosen street canyon. The influence of this modification, as well as the model's sensitivity to parameterization constants, was investigated. To reach this goal, the model was initialized and compared with meteorological and SF6 tracer measurements from the Basel UrBan Boundary Layer Experiment (BUBBLE). The proposed modification does not improve the model's agreement with concentration observations, even though the trapping time shows promising agreement with measurements. Additionally, the modification's influence is smaller than those of different turbulence profiles, zero-plane displacement height and Roughness Sublayer height.

Air quality modelling in the Berlin-Brandenburg region using WRF-Chem v3.7.1: sensitivity to resolution of model grid and input data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kuik, Friderike; Lauer, Axel; Churkina, Galina; Denier van der Gon, Hugo A. C.; Fenner, Daniel; Mar, Kathleen A.; Butler, Tim M.

2016-12-01

Air pollution is the number one environmental cause of premature deaths in Europe. Despite extensive regulations, air pollution remains a challenge, especially in urban areas. For studying summertime air quality in the Berlin-Brandenburg region of Germany, the Weather Research and Forecasting Model with Chemistry (WRF-Chem) is set up and evaluated against meteorological and air quality observations from monitoring stations as well as from a field campaign conducted in 2014. The objective is to assess which resolution and level of detail in the input data is needed for simulating urban background air pollutant concentrations and their spatial distribution in the Berlin-Brandenburg area. The model setup includes three nested domains with horizontal resolutions of 15, 3 and 1 km and anthropogenic emissions from the TNO-MACC III inventory. We use RADM2 chemistry and the MADE/SORGAM aerosol scheme. Three sensitivity simulations are conducted updating input parameters to the single-layer urban canopy model based on structural data for Berlin, specifying land use classes on a sub-grid scale (mosaic option) and downscaling the original emissions to a resolution of ca. 1 km × 1 km for Berlin based on proxy data including traffic density and population density. The results show that the model simulates meteorology well, though urban 2 m temperature and urban wind speeds are biased high and nighttime mixing layer height is biased low in the base run with the settings described above. We show that the simulation of urban meteorology can be improved when specifying the input parameters to the urban model, and to a lesser extent when using the mosaic option. On average, ozone is simulated reasonably well, but maximum daily 8 h mean concentrations are underestimated, which is consistent with the results from previous modelling studies using the RADM2 chemical mechanism. Particulate matter is underestimated, which is partly due to an underestimation of secondary organic aerosols. NOx (NO + NO2) concentrations are simulated reasonably well on average, but nighttime concentrations are overestimated due to the model's underestimation of the mixing layer height, and urban daytime concentrations are underestimated. The daytime underestimation is improved when using downscaled, and thus locally higher emissions, suggesting that part of this bias is due to deficiencies in the emission input data and their resolution. The results further demonstrate that a horizontal resolution of 3 km improves the results and spatial representativeness of the model compared to a horizontal resolution of 15 km. With the input data (land use classes, emissions) at the level of detail of the base run of this study, we find that a horizontal resolution of 1 km does not improve the results compared to a resolution of 3 km. However, our results suggest that a 1 km horizontal model resolution could enable a detailed simulation of local pollution patterns in the Berlin-Brandenburg region if the urban land use classes, together with the respective input parameters to the urban canopy model, are specified with a higher level of detail and if urban emissions of higher spatial resolution are used.

Exploring the response of net primary productivity variations to urban expansion and climate change: a scenario analysis for Guangdong Province in China.

PubMed

Pei, Fengsong; Li, Xia; Liu, Xiaoping; Lao, Chunhua; Xia, Gengrui

2015-03-01

Urban land development alters landscapes and carbon cycle, especially net primary productivity (NPP). Despite projections that NPP is often reduced by urbanization, little is known about NPP changes under future urban expansion and climate change conditions. In this paper, terrestrial NPP was calculated by using Biome-BGC model. However, this model does not explicitly address urban lands. Hence, we proposed a method of NPP-fraction to detect future urban NPP, assuming that the ratio of real NPP to potential NPP for urban cells remains constant for decades. Furthermore, NPP dynamics were explored by integrating the Biome-BGC and the cellular automata (CA), a widely used method for modeling urban growth. Consequently, urban expansion, climate change and their associated effects on the NPP were analyzed for the period of 2010-2039 using Guangdong Province in China as a case study. In addition, four scenarios were designed to reflect future conditions, namely baseline, climate change, urban expansion and comprehensive scenarios. Our analyses indicate that vegetation NPP in urban cells may increase (17.63 gC m(-2) year(-1)-23.35 gC m(-2) year(-1)) in the climate change scenario. However, future urban expansion may cause some NPP losses of 241.61 gC m(-2) year(-1), decupling the NPP increase of the climate change factor. Taking into account both climate change and urban expansion, vegetation NPP in urban area may decrease, minimally at a rate of 228.54 gC m(-2) year(-1) to 231.74 gC m(-2) year(-1). Nevertheless, they may account for an overall NPP increase of 0.78 TgC year(-1) to 1.28 TgC year(-1) in the whole province. All these show that the provincial NPP increase from climate change may offset the NPP decrease from urban expansion. Despite these results, it is of great significance to regulate reasonable expansion of urban lands to maintain carbon balance. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

An Alternative Curriculum Model for Urban Education and Community Affairs Programs in Higher Education. Working Paper No. 103.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Simmons, Ron

This document describes the urban education program at William Paterson College of New Jersey. Urban education is defined as educating people for living and in coping with an urban environment, including politics, crime and drug prevention, and delivery of services to cities. Some problems in urban education are identified as weak…

24 CFR 3285.704 - Telephone and cable TV.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-04-01

... URBAN DEVELOPMENT MODEL MANUFACTURED HOME INSTALLATION STANDARDS Electrical Systems and Equipment § 3285... 24 Housing and Urban Development 5 2010-04-01 2010-04-01 false Telephone and cable TV. 3285.704 Section 3285.704 Housing and Urban Development Regulations Relating to Housing and Urban Development...

Swarm Intelligence for Urban Dynamics Modelling

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Ghnemat, Rawan; Bertelle, Cyrille; Duchamp, Gerard H. E.

2009-04-16

In this paper, we propose swarm intelligence algorithms to deal with dynamical and spatial organization emergence. The goal is to model and simulate the developement of spatial centers using multi-criteria. We combine a decentralized approach based on emergent clustering mixed with spatial constraints or attractions. We propose an extension of the ant nest building algorithm with multi-center and adaptive process. Typically, this model is suitable to analyse and simulate urban dynamics like gentrification or the dynamics of the cultural equipment in urban area.

Swarm Intelligence for Urban Dynamics Modelling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ghnemat, Rawan; Bertelle, Cyrille; Duchamp, Gérard H. E.

2009-04-01

In this paper, we propose swarm intelligence algorithms to deal with dynamical and spatial organization emergence. The goal is to model and simulate the developement of spatial centers using multi-criteria. We combine a decentralized approach based on emergent clustering mixed with spatial constraints or attractions. We propose an extension of the ant nest building algorithm with multi-center and adaptive process. Typically, this model is suitable to analyse and simulate urban dynamics like gentrification or the dynamics of the cultural equipment in urban area.

Application of GIS to modified models of vehicle emission dispersion

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jin, Taosheng; Fu, Lixin

This paper reports on a preliminary study of the forecast and evaluation of transport-related air pollution dispersion in urban areas. Some modifications of the traditional Gauss dispersion models are provided, and especially a crossroad model is built, which considers the great variation of vehicle emission attributed to different driving patterns at the crossroad. The above models are combined with a self-developed geographic information system (GIS) platform, and a simulative system with graphical interfaces is built. The system aims at visually describing the influences on the urban environment by urban traffic characteristics and therefore gives a reference to the improvement of urban air quality. Due to the introduction of a self-developed GIS platform and a creative crossroad model, the system is more effective, flexible and accurate. Finally, a comparison of the simulated (predicted) and observed hourly concentration is given, which indicates a good simulation.

Urban RoGeR: Merging process-based high-resolution flash flood model for urban areas with long-term water balance predictions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Weiler, M.

2016-12-01

Heavy rain induced flash floods are still a serious hazard and generate high damages in urban areas. In particular in the spatially complex urban areas, the temporal and spatial pattern of runoff generation processes at a wide spatial range during extreme rainfall events need to be predicted including the specific effects of green infrastructure and urban forests. In addition, the initial conditions (soil moisture pattern, water storage of green infrastructure) and the effect of lateral redistribution of water (run-on effects and re-infiltration) have to be included in order realistically predict flash flood generation. We further developed the distributed, process-based model RoGeR (Runoff Generation Research) to include the relevant features and processes in urban areas in order to test the effects of different settings, initial conditions and the lateral redistribution of water on the predicted flood response. The uncalibrated model RoGeR runs at a spatial resolution of 1*1m² (LiDAR, degree of sealing, landuse), soil properties and geology (1:50.000). In addition, different green infrastructures are included into the model as well as the effect of trees on interception and transpiration. A hydraulic model was included into RoGeR to predict surface runoff, water redistribution, and re-infiltration. During rainfall events, RoGeR predicts at 5 min temporal resolution, but the model also simulates evapotranspiration and groundwater recharge during rain-free periods at a longer time step. The model framework was applied to several case studies in Germany where intense rainfall events produced flash floods causing high damage in urban areas and to a long-term research catchment in an urban setting (Vauban, Freiburg), where a variety of green infrastructures dominates the hydrology. Urban-RoGeR allowed us to study the effects of different green infrastructures on reducing the flood peak, but also its effect on the water balance (evapotranspiration and groundwater recharge). We could also show that infiltration of surface runoff from areas with a low infiltration (lateral redistribution) reduce the flood peaks by over 90% in certain areas and situations. Finally, we also evaluated the model to long-term runoff observations (surface runoff, ET, roof runoff) and to flood marks in the selected case studies.

Modeling subjective evaluation of soundscape quality in urban open spaces: An artificial neural network approach.

PubMed

Yu, Lei; Kang, Jian

2009-09-01

This research aims to explore the feasibility of using computer-based models to predict the soundscape quality evaluation of potential users in urban open spaces at the design stage. With the data from large scale field surveys in 19 urban open spaces across Europe and China, the importance of various physical, behavioral, social, demographical, and psychological factors for the soundscape evaluation has been statistically analyzed. Artificial neural network (ANN) models have then been explored at three levels. It has been shown that for both subjective sound level and acoustic comfort evaluation, a general model for all the case study sites is less feasible due to the complex physical and social environments in urban open spaces; models based on individual case study sites perform well but the application range is limited; and specific models for certain types of location/function would be reliable and practical. The performance of acoustic comfort models is considerably better than that of sound level models. Based on the ANN models, soundscape quality maps can be produced and this has been demonstrated with an example.

A web GIS based integrated flood assessment modeling tool for coastal urban watersheds

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kulkarni, A. T.; Mohanty, J.; Eldho, T. I.; Rao, E. P.; Mohan, B. K.

2014-03-01

Urban flooding has become an increasingly important issue in many parts of the world. In this study, an integrated flood assessment model (IFAM) is presented for the coastal urban flood simulation. A web based GIS framework has been adopted to organize the spatial datasets for the study area considered and to run the model within this framework. The integrated flood model consists of a mass balance based 1-D overland flow model, 1-D finite element based channel flow model based on diffusion wave approximation and a quasi 2-D raster flood inundation model based on the continuity equation. The model code is written in MATLAB and the application is integrated within a web GIS server product viz: Web Gram Server™ (WGS), developed at IIT Bombay, using Java, JSP and JQuery technologies. Its user interface is developed using open layers and the attribute data are stored in MySQL open source DBMS. The model is integrated within WGS and is called via Java script. The application has been demonstrated for two coastal urban watersheds of Navi Mumbai, India. Simulated flood extents for extreme rainfall event of 26 July, 2005 in the two urban watersheds of Navi Mumbai city are presented and discussed. The study demonstrates the effectiveness of the flood simulation tool in a web GIS environment to facilitate data access and visualization of GIS datasets and simulation results.

High-quality observation of surface imperviousness for urban runoff modelling using UAV imagery

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tokarczyk, P.; Leitao, J. P.; Rieckermann, J.; Schindler, K.; Blumensaat, F.

2015-10-01

Modelling rainfall-runoff in urban areas is increasingly applied to support flood risk assessment, particularly against the background of a changing climate and an increasing urbanization. These models typically rely on high-quality data for rainfall and surface characteristics of the catchment area as model input. While recent research in urban drainage has been focusing on providing spatially detailed rainfall data, the technological advances in remote sensing that ease the acquisition of detailed land-use information are less prominently discussed within the community. The relevance of such methods increases as in many parts of the globe, accurate land-use information is generally lacking, because detailed image data are often unavailable. Modern unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) allow one to acquire high-resolution images on a local level at comparably lower cost, performing on-demand repetitive measurements and obtaining a degree of detail tailored for the purpose of the study. In this study, we investigate for the first time the possibility of deriving high-resolution imperviousness maps for urban areas from UAV imagery and of using this information as input for urban drainage models. To do so, an automatic processing pipeline with a modern classification method is proposed and evaluated in a state-of-the-art urban drainage modelling exercise. In a real-life case study (Lucerne, Switzerland), we compare imperviousness maps generated using a fixed-wing consumer micro-UAV and standard large-format aerial images acquired by the Swiss national mapping agency (swisstopo). After assessing their overall accuracy, we perform an end-to-end comparison, in which they are used as an input for an urban drainage model. Then, we evaluate the influence which different image data sources and their processing methods have on hydrological and hydraulic model performance. We analyse the surface runoff of the 307 individual subcatchments regarding relevant attributes, such as peak runoff and runoff volume. Finally, we evaluate the model's channel flow prediction performance through a cross-comparison with reference flow measured at the catchment outlet. We show that imperviousness maps generated from UAV images processed with modern classification methods achieve an accuracy comparable to standard, off-the-shelf aerial imagery. In the examined case study, we find that the different imperviousness maps only have a limited influence on predicted surface runoff and pipe flows, when traditional workflows are used. We expect that they will have a substantial influence when more detailed modelling approaches are employed to characterize land use and to predict surface runoff. We conclude that UAV imagery represents a valuable alternative data source for urban drainage model applications due to the possibility of flexibly acquiring up-to-date aerial images at a quality compared with off-the-shelf image products and a competitive price at the same time. We believe that in the future, urban drainage models representing a higher degree of spatial detail will fully benefit from the strengths of UAV imagery.

Remote sensing assessment of carbon storage by urban forest

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kanniah, K. D.; Muhamad, N.; Kang, C. S.

2014-02-01

Urban forests play a crucial role in mitigating global warming by absorbing excessive CO2 emissions due to transportation, industry and house hold activities in the urban environment. In this study we have assessed the role of trees in an urban forest, (Mutiara Rini) located within the Iskandar Development region in south Johor, Malaysia. We first estimated the above ground biomass/carbon stock of the trees using allometric equations and biometric data (diameter at breast height of trees) collected in the field. We used remotely sensed vegetation indices (VI) to develop an empirical relationship between VI and carbon stock. We used five different VIs derived from a very high resolution World View-2 satellite data. Results show that model by [1] and Normalized Difference Vegetation Index are correlated well (R2 = 0.72) via a power model. We applied the model to the entire study area to obtain carbon stock of urban forest. The average carbon stock in the urban forest (mostly consisting of Dipterocarp species) is ~70 t C ha-1. Results of this study can be used by the Iskandar Regional Development Authority to better manage vegetation in the urban environment to establish a low carbon city in this region.

Simulation of trace metals and PAH atmospheric pollution over Greater Paris: Concentrations and deposition on urban surfaces

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Thouron, L.; Seigneur, C.; Kim, Y.; Legorgeu, C.; Roustan, Y.; Bruge, B.

2017-10-01

Urban areas can be subject not only to poor air quality, but also to contamination of other environmental media by air pollutants. Here, we address the potential transfer of selected air pollutants (two metals and three PAH) to urban surfaces. To that end, we simulate meteorology and air pollution from Europe to a Paris suburban neighborhood, using a four-level one-way nesting approach. The meteorological and air quality simulations use urban canopy sub-models in order to better represent the effect of the urban morphology on the air flow, atmospheric dispersion, and deposition of air pollutants to urban surfaces. This modeling approach allows us to distinguish air pollutant deposition among various urban surfaces (roofs, roads, and walls). Meteorological model performance is satisfactory, showing improved results compared to earlier simulations, although precipitation amounts are underestimated. Concentration simulation results are also satisfactory for both metals, with a fractional bias <0.5. Concentrations of benzo[a]pyrene are overestimated, probably because continental emissions may be overestimated. Concentrations of benzo[b]fluoranthene and indeno[1,2,3,cd]pyrene are underestimated, in part because of null boundary conditions. PAH deposition fluxes are consistent with earlier measurements obtained in the Greater Paris region. The model simulation results suggest that both wet and dry deposition processes need to be considered when estimating the transfer of air pollutants to other environmental media. Dry deposition fluxes to various urban surfaces are mostly uniform for PAH, which are entirely present in fine particles. However, there is significantly less wall deposition compared to deposition to roofs and roads for trace metals, due to their coarse fraction. Meteorology, particle size distribution, and urban morphology are all important factors affecting air pollutant deposition. Future work should focus on the collection of data suitable to evaluate the performance of atmospheric models for both wet and dry deposition with fine spatial resolution.

URBAN MORPHOLOGY FOR HOUSTON TO DRIVE MODELS-3/CMAQ AT NEIGHBORHOOD SCALES

EPA Science Inventory

Air quality simulation models applied at various horizontal scales require different degrees of treatment in the specifications of the underlying surfaces. As we model neighborhood scales ( 1 km horizontal grid spacing), the representation of urban morphological structures (e....

UPDATE ON EPA'S URBAN WATERSHED MANAGEMENT BRANCH MODELING ACTIVITIES

EPA Science Inventory

This paper provides the Stormwater Management Model (SWMM) user community with a description of the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA's) Office of Research and Development (ORD) approach to urban watershed modeling research and provides an update on current ORD SWMM-related pr...

Systems Models for Transportation Problems : Volume 2. An Introduction to Urban Center Modeling.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

1976-03-01

Our thermodynamic theory considers the problem of attempting to formalize in a modeling sense what might be done in an urban economy, wherein transportation planning and other institutionalized requirements of the domain are also to be satisfied, and...

Perfluorooctane sulfonate (PFOS) contamination of fish in urban lakes: a prioritization methodology for lake management.

PubMed

Xiao, Feng; Gulliver, John S; Simcik, Matt F

2013-12-15

The contamination of urban lakes by anthropogenic pollutants such as perfluorooctane sulfonate (PFOS) is a worldwide environmental problem. Large-scale, long-term monitoring of urban lakes requires careful prioritization of available resources, focusing efforts on potentially impaired lakes. Herein, a database of PFOS concentrations in 304 fish caught from 28 urban lakes was used for development of an urban-lake prioritization framework by means of exploratory data analysis (EDA) with the aid of a geographical information system. The prioritization scheme consists of three main tiers: preliminary classification, carried out by hierarchical cluster analysis; predictor screening, fulfilled by a regression tree method; and model development by means of a neural network. The predictive performance of the newly developed model was assessed using a training/validation splitting method and determined by an external validation set. The application of the model in the U.S. state of Minnesota identified 40 urban lakes that may contain elevated levels of PFOS; these lakes were not previously considered in PFOS monitoring programs. The model results also highlight ongoing industrial/commercial activities as a principal determinant of PFOS pollution in urban lakes, and suggest vehicular traffic as an important source and surface runoff as a primary pollution carrier. In addition, the EDA approach was further compared to a spatial interpolation method (kriging), and their advantages and disadvantages were discussed. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Heat stress increase under climate change twice as large in cities as in rural areas: A study for a densely populated midlatitude maritime region

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wouters, Hendrik; De Ridder, Koen; Poelmans, Lien; Willems, Patrick; Brouwers, Johan; Hosseinzadehtalaei, Parisa; Tabari, Hossein; Vanden Broucke, Sam; van Lipzig, Nicole P. M.; Demuzere, Matthias

2017-09-01

Urban areas are usually warmer than their surrounding natural areas, an effect known as the urban heat island effect. As such, they are particularly vulnerable to global warming and associated increases in extreme temperatures. Yet ensemble climate-model projections are generally performed on a scale that is too coarse to represent the evolution of temperatures in cities. Here, for the first time, we combine unprecedented long-term (35 years) urban climate model integrations at the convection-permitting scale (2.8 km resolution) with information from an ensemble of general circulation models to assess temperature-based heat stress for Belgium, a densely populated midlatitude maritime region. We discover that the heat stress increase toward the mid-21st century is twice as large in cities compared to their surrounding rural areas. The exacerbation is driven by the urban heat island itself, its concurrence with heat waves, and urban expansion. Cities experience a heat stress multiplication by a factor 1.4 and 15 depending on the scenario. Remarkably, the future heat stress surpasses everywhere the urban hot spots of today. Our results demonstrate the need to combine information from climate models, acting on different scales, for climate change risk assessment in heterogeneous regions. Moreover, these results highlight the necessity for adaptation to increasing heat stress, especially in urban areas.

A neural network based model for urban noise prediction.

PubMed

Genaro, N; Torija, A; Ramos-Ridao, A; Requena, I; Ruiz, D P; Zamorano, M

2010-10-01

Noise is a global problem. In 1972 the World Health Organization (WHO) classified noise as a pollutant. Since then, most industrialized countries have enacted laws and local regulations to prevent and reduce acoustic environmental pollution. A further aim is to alert people to the dangers of this type of pollution. In this context, urban planners need to have tools that allow them to evaluate the degree of acoustic pollution. Scientists in many countries have modeled urban noise, using a wide range of approaches, but their results have not been as good as expected. This paper describes a model developed for the prediction of environmental urban noise using Soft Computing techniques, namely Artificial Neural Networks (ANN). The model is based on the analysis of variables regarded as influential by experts in the field and was applied to data collected on different types of streets. The results were compared to those obtained with other models. The study found that the ANN system was able to predict urban noise with greater accuracy, and thus, was an improvement over those models. The principal component analysis (PCA) was also used to try to simplify the model. Although there was a slight decline in the accuracy of the results, the values obtained were also quite acceptable.

Building-Scale Atmospheric Modeling for Understanding and Anticipating Environmental Risks to Urban Populations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Warner, T. T.; Swerdlin, S. P.; Chen, F.; Hayden, M.

2009-05-01

The innovative use of Computational Fluid-Dynamics (CFD) models to define the building- and street-scale atmospheric environment in urban areas can benefit society in a number of ways. Design criteria used by architectural climatologists, who help plan the livable cities of the future, require information about air movement within street canyons for different seasons and weather regimes. Understanding indoor urban air- quality problems and their mitigation, especially for older buildings, requires data on air movement and associated dynamic pressures near buildings. Learning how heat waves and anthropogenic forcing in cities collectively affect the health of vulnerable residents is a problem in building thermodynamics, human behavior, and neighborhood-scale and street-canyon-scale atmospheric sciences. And, predicting the movement of plumes of hazardous material released in urban industrial or transportation accidents requires detailed information about vertical and horizontal air motions in the street canyons. These challenges are closer to being addressed because of advances in CFD modeling, the coupling of CFD models with models of indoor air motion and air quality, and the coupling of CFD models with mesoscale weather-prediction models. This paper will review some of the new knowledge and technologies that are being developed to meet these atmospheric-environment needs of our growing urban populations.

Dominant control of agriculture and irrigation on urban heat island in India.

PubMed

Kumar, Rahul; Mishra, Vimal; Buzan, Jonathan; Kumar, Rohini; Shindell, Drew; Huber, Matthew

2017-10-25

As is true in many regions, India experiences surface Urban Heat Island (UHI) effect that is well understood, but the causes of the more recently discovered Urban Cool Island (UCI) effect remain poorly constrained. This raises questions about our fundamental understanding of the drivers of rural-urban environmental gradients and hinders development of effective strategies for mitigation and adaptation to projected heat stress increases in rapidly urbanizing India. Here we show that more than 60% of Indian urban areas are observed to experience a day-time UCI. We use satellite observations and the Community Land Model (CLM) to identify the impact of irrigation and prove for the first time that UCI is caused by lack of vegetation and moisture in non-urban areas relative to cities. In contrast, urban areas in extensively irrigated landscapes generally experience the expected positive UHI effect. At night, UHI warming intensifies, occurring across a majority (90%) of India's urban areas. The magnitude of rural-urban temperature contrasts is largely controlled by agriculture and moisture availability from irrigation, but further analysis of model results indicate an important role for atmospheric aerosols. Thus both land-use decisions and aerosols are important factors governing, modulating, and even reversing the expected urban-rural temperature gradients.

GOFC-GOLD/LCLUC/START Regional Networking: building capacity for science and decision-making.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Justice, C. O.; Vadrevu, K.; Gutman, G.

2016-12-01

Over the past 20 years, the international GOFC-GOLD Program and START, with core funding from the NASA LCLUC program and ESA have been developing regional networks of scientists and data users for scientific capacity building and sharing experience in the use and application of Earth Observation data. Regional networks connect scientists from countries with similar environmental and social issues and often with shared water and airsheds. Through periodic regional workshops, regional and national projects are showcased and national priorities and policy drivers are articulated. The workshops encourage both north-south and south-south exchange and collaboration. The workshops are multi-sponsored and each include a training component, targeting early career scientists and data users from the region. The workshops provide an opportunity for regional scientists to publish in peer-reviewed special editions focused on regional issues. Currently, the NASA LCLUC program funded "South and Southeast Asia Regional Initiative (SARI)" team is working closely with the USAID/NASA SERVIR program to implement some capacity building and training activities jointly in south/southeast Asian countries to achieve maximum benefit.

Challenge theme 7: Information support for management of border security and environmental protection: Chapter 9 in United States-Mexican Borderlands: Facing tomorrow's challenges through USGS science

USGS Publications Warehouse

Parcher, Jean W.; Page, William R.

2013-01-01

Historically, international borders were located far from the major political and economic capitals of their countries and rarely received adequate planning or infrastructure development. Today, as a result of global economics and increased movement of goods between nations, border regions play a much greater role in commerce, tourism, and transportation. For example, Mexico is the second largest destination for United States exports (Woodrow Wilson Center Mexico Institute, 2009). The rapid population and economic growth along the United States–Mexican border, undocumented human border crossings, and the unique natural diversity of resources in the Borderlands present challenges for border security and environmental protection. Assessing risks and implementing sustainable growth policies to protect the environment and quality of life greatly increase in complexity when the issues cross an international border, where social services, environmental regulations, lifestyles, and cultural beliefs are unique for each country. Shared airsheds, water and biological resources, national security issues, and disaster management needs require an integrated binational approach to assess risks and develop binational management strategies.

Environmental behavior and fate of methyl tert-butyl ether (MTBE)

USGS Publications Warehouse

Squillace, Paul J.; Pankow, James F.; Korte, Nic E.; Zogorski, John S.

1996-01-01

When gasoline that has been oxygenated with methyl tert-butyl ether (MTBE) comes in contact with water, large amounts of MTBE can dissolve; at 25 degrees Celsius the water solubility of MTBE is about 5,000 milligrams per liter for a gasoline that is 10 percent MTBE by weight. In contrast, for a nonoxygenated gasoline, the total hydrocarbon solubility in water is typically about 120 milligrams per liter. MTBE sorbs only weakly to soil and aquifer materials; therefore, sorption will not significantly retard MTBE's transport by ground water. In addition, MTBE generally resists degradation in ground water. The half-life of MTBE in the atmosphere can be as short as 3 days in a regional airshed. MTBE in the air tends to partition into atmospheric water, including precipitation. However, washout of gas-phase MTBE by precipitation would not, by itself, greatly alter the gas-phase concentration of the compound in the air. The partitioning of MTBE to precipitation is nevertheless strong enough to allow for up to 3 micrograms per liter or more inputs of MTBE to surface and ground water.

A sustainable city implantation for Vienna, Austria

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Levine, R.S.; Radmard, T.; Dumreicher, H.

1995-11-01

This paper presents a prototype of the Sustainable City Implantation of the future, which the city of Vienna, Austria is interested in considering as a solution to a long standing urban problem. Developed conceptually through numerous architectural design studio projects and field studies the Sustainable City Implantation is inspired by the historic medieval Italian hilltown. This city-as-a-hill prototype, rendered through sophisticated and flexible computer models, offers the promise of overcoming many of the puzzles and conundrums plaguing urban designers and social ecologists in their efforts to find the proper form and scale for charting the pathway to sustainability in naturemore » and the built environment. The new holistic, people centered, urban model has been developed to be able to synthesize new urban concepts with technological means to develop humane, sustainable cities. This preliminary study develops and verifies this model together with its process for a significant urban site in the city of Vienna.« less

The manifestation of depression in the context of urban poverty: a factor analysis of the Children's Depression Inventory in low-income urban youth.

PubMed

Taylor, Jeremy J; Grant, Kathryn E; Amrhein, Kelly; Carter, Jocelyn Smith; Farahmand, Farahnaz; Harrison, Aubrey; Thomas, Kina J; Carleton, Russell A; Lugo-Hernandez, Eduardo; Katz, Brian N

2014-12-01

The current study used confirmatory factor analysis (CFA) to compare the fit of 2 factor structures for the Children's Depression Inventory (CDI) in an urban community sample of low-income youth. Results suggest that the 6-factor model developed by Craighead and colleagues (1998) was a strong fit to the pattern of symptoms reported by low-income urban youth and was a superior fit with these data than the original 5-factor model of the CDI (Kovacs, 1992). Additionally, results indicated that all 6 factors from the Craighead model contributed to the measurement of depression, including School Problems and Externalizing Problems especially for older adolescents. This pattern of findings may reflect distinct contextual influences of urban poverty on the manifestation and measurement of depression in youth. (c) 2014 APA, all rights reserved.

Semi-Automatic Building Models and FAÇADE Texture Mapping from Mobile Phone Images

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jeong, J.; Kim, T.

2016-06-01

Research on 3D urban modelling has been actively carried out for a long time. Recently the need of 3D urban modelling research is increased rapidly due to improved geo-web services and popularized smart devices. Nowadays 3D urban models provided by, for example, Google Earth use aerial photos for 3D urban modelling but there are some limitations: immediate update for the change of building models is difficult, many buildings are without 3D model and texture, and large resources for maintaining and updating are inevitable. To resolve the limitations mentioned above, we propose a method for semi-automatic building modelling and façade texture mapping from mobile phone images and analyze the result of modelling with actual measurements. Our method consists of camera geometry estimation step, image matching step, and façade mapping step. Models generated from this method were compared with actual measurement value of real buildings. Ratios of edge length of models and measurements were compared. Result showed 5.8% average error of length ratio. Through this method, we could generate a simple building model with fine façade textures without expensive dedicated tools and dataset.

Modeling Transport of Turbulent Fluxes in a Heterogeneous Urban Canopy Using a Spatially Explicit Energy Balance

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Moody, M.; Bailey, B.; Stoll, R., II

2017-12-01

Understanding how changes in the microclimate near individual plants affects the surface energy budget is integral to modeling land-atmosphere interactions and a wide range of near surface atmospheric boundary layer phenomena. In urban areas, the complex geometry of the urban canopy layer results in large spatial deviations of turbulent fluxes further complicating the development of models. Accurately accounting for this heterogeneity in order to model urban energy and water use requires a sub-plant level understanding of microclimate variables. We present analysis of new experimental field data taken in and around two Blue Spruce (Picea pungens) trees at the University of Utah in 2015. The test sites were chosen in order study the effects of heterogeneity in an urban environment. An array of sensors were placed in and around the conifers to quantify transport in the soil-plant-atmosphere continuum: radiative fluxes, temperature, sap fluxes, etc. A spatial array of LEMS (Local Energy Measurement Systems) were deployed to obtain pressure, surrounding air temperature and relative humidity. These quantities are used to calculate the radiative and turbulent fluxes. Relying on measurements alone is insufficient to capture the complexity of microclimate distribution as one reaches sub-plant scales. A spatially-explicit radiation and energy balance model previously developed for deciduous trees was extended to include conifers. The model discretizes the tree into isothermal sub-volumes on which energy balances are performed and utilizes incoming radiation as the primary forcing input. The radiative transfer component of the model yields good agreement between measured and modeled upward longwave and shortwave radiative fluxes. Ultimately, the model was validated through an examination of the full energy budget including radiative and turbulent fluxes through isolated Picea pungens in an urban environment.

What is Urban? A study of census and satellite-derived urban classes in the United States (1990-2010) with comparisons to India and Mexico

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Balk, D.; Leyk, S.; Jones, B.; Clark, A.; Montgomery, M.

2017-12-01

Geographers and demographers have contributed much to understanding urban population and urban place. Yet, we nevertheless remain ill-prepared to fully understand past urban processes and our urban future, and importantly, connect that knowledge to pressing concerns such as climate and environmental change. This is largely due to well-known data limitations and inherent inconsistencies in the urban definition across countries and over time and spatial scales, and because urban models and definitions arise out of disciplinary silos. This paper provides a new framework for urban inquiry in that it combines urban definitions used by the U.S. Census Bureau from 1990-2010 with newly available satellite-based (mostly Landsat) data on built-up area from the Global Human Settlement Layer (GHSL). We identify areas of agreement and disagreement, as well as the population distribution underlying various GHSL derived built-up land thresholds. Our analysis allows for a systematic means of discerning peri-urban areas from other types of urban development, as well as examines differences in these patterns at the national and Metropolitan Statistical Area (MSA)-level. While we find overwhelming areas of agreement - about 70% of the census-designated urban population can be characterized as living on land that is at least 50% built-up - we also learn much of the significant heterogeneity in levels and patterns of growth between different MSAs. We further compare the US results with those for India and Mexico. This research unlocks the potential of such alternative measures for creating globally and temporally consistent proxies of urban land and may guide further research on consistent modeling of spatial demographic urban change, highly urgent for future work to distinguish between fine-scale levels of urban development and to forecast urban expansion.

Removing non-urban roads from the National Land Cover Database to create improved urban maps for the United States, 1992-2011

USGS Publications Warehouse

Soulard, Christopher E.; Acevedo, William; Stehman, Stephen V.

2018-01-01

Quantifying change in urban land provides important information to create empirical models examining the effects of human land use. Maps of developed land from the National Land Cover Database (NLCD) of the conterminous United States include rural roads in the developed land class and therefore overestimate the amount of urban land. To better map the urban class and understand how urban lands change over time, we removed rural roads and small patches of rural development from the NLCD developed class and created four wall-to-wall maps (1992, 2001, 2006, and 2011) of urban land. Removing rural roads from the NLCD developed class involved a multi-step filtering process, data fusion using geospatial road and developed land data, and manual editing. Reference data classified as urban or not urban from a stratified random sample was used to assess the accuracy of the 2001 and 2006 urban and NLCD maps. The newly created urban maps had higher overall accuracy (98.7 percent) than the NLCD maps (96.2 percent). More importantly, the urban maps resulted in lower commission error of the urban class (23 percent versus 57 percent for the NLCD in 2006) with the trade-off of slightly inflated omission error (20 percent for the urban map, 16 percent for NLCD in 2006). The removal of approximately 230,000 km2 of rural roads from the NLCD developed class resulted in maps that better characterize the urban footprint. These urban maps are more suited to modeling applications and policy decisions that rely on quantitative and spatially explicit information regarding urban lands.

Modeling the resilience of urban water supply using the capital portfolio approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Krueger, E. H.; Klammler, H.; Borchardt, D.; Frank, K.; Jawitz, J. W.; Rao, P. S.

2017-12-01

The dynamics of global change challenge the resilience of cities in a multitude of ways, including pressures resulting from population and consumption changes, production patterns, climate and landuse change, as well as environmental hazards. Responses to these challenges aim to improve urban resilience, but lack an adequate understanding of 1) the elements and processes that lead to the resilience of coupled natural-human-engineered systems, 2) the complex dynamics emerging from the interaction of these elements, including the availability of natural resources, infrastructure, and social capital, which may lead to 3) unintended consequences resulting from management responses. We propose a new model that simulates the coupled dynamics of five types of capitals (water resources, infrastructure, finances, political capital /management, and social adaptive capacity) that are necessary for the provision of water supply to urban residents. We parameterize the model based on data for a case study city, which is limited by constraints in water availability, financial resources, and faced with degrading infrastructure, as well as population increase, which challenge the urban management institutions. Our model analyzes the stability of the coupled system, and produces time series of the capital dynamics to quantify its resilience as a result of the portfolio of capitals available to usher adaptive capacity and to secure water supply subjected to multiple recurring shocks. We apply our model to one real urban water supply system located in an arid environment, as well as a wide range of hypothetical case studies, which demonstrates its applicability to various types of cities, and its ability to quantify and compare water supply resilience. The analysis of a range of urban water systems provides valuable insights into guiding more sustainable responses for maintaining the resilience of urban water supply around the globe, by showing how unsustainable responses risk the loss of resilience. We suggest that the same model can be generalized to represent other types of urban infrastructure service systems with different parameterizations.

Evapotranspiration of the urban forest at the municipal scale in Los Angeles, CA

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Litvak, E.; Pataki, D. E.

2015-12-01

The severest drought on record in southern California and predictions of continued water shortages make it essential to understand urban water use. However, urban evapotranspiration (ET), which is an important part of municipal water budgets, remains a major uncertainty. Urban ET is difficult to measure and model, particularly in cities with diverse plant composition. The city of Los Angeles contains more than 6 million trees, most of which are non-natives that originate from multiple geographic regions, which further complicates predictions of urban forest transpiration. Previously, we made extensive in situ measurements of tree transpiration and turfgrass ET in greater Los Angeles area. Here, we utilize these data to systematize transpiration of different tree species based on physiological mechanisms underlying plant water relations. The resulting empirical model estimates Los Angeles urban forest ET from easy-to-collect plant characteristics and freely available environmental parameters. Plant characteristics are tree diameter, wood type (e.g. coniferous), phenological type (e.g. evergreen) and plant composition. Environmental parameters are vapor pressure deficit of the air, incoming solar radiation and reference ET (all available at http://cimis.water.ca.gov). By combining this model with existing surveys of urban trees in Los Angeles, we estimated that citywide ET of irrigated landscapes varies from 1.2 ± 0.5 mm/d in winter to 2.8 ± 1.1 mm/d in summer. On average, trees and turfgrass contributed 27% and 73% to total tree+turfgrass ET, correspondingly. To our knowledge, this model provides the first citywide estimates of Los Angeles ET differentiated by wood types and plant composition. These results will inform decision makers about species-specific water use by urban trees and assist with determining landscape designs that are beneficial for water conservation. This model may also be incorporated into a regional hydrologic model to provide spatially resolved ET at the municipal scale.

Understanding, management and modelling of urban hydrology and its consequences for receiving waters: A state of the art

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fletcher, T. D.; Andrieu, H.; Hamel, P.

2013-01-01

Urban hydrology has evolved to improve the way urban runoff is managed for flood protection, public health and environmental protection. There have been significant recent advances in the measurement and prediction of urban rainfall, with technologies such as radar and microwave networks showing promise. The ability to predict urban hydrology has also evolved, to deliver models suited to the small temporal and spatial scales typical of urban and peri-urban applications. Urban stormwater management increasingly consider the needs of receiving environments as well as those of humans. There is a clear trend towards approaches that attempt to restore pre-development flow-regimes and water quality, with an increasing recognition that restoring a more natural water balance benefits not only the environment, but enhances the liveability of the urban landscape. Once regarded only as a nuisance, stormwater is now increasingly regarded as a resource. Despite the advances, many important challenges in urban hydrology remain. Further research into the spatio-temporal dynamics of urban rainfall is required to improve short-term rainfall prediction. The performance of stormwater technologies in restoring the water balance and in removing emerging priority pollutants remain poorly quantified. All of these challenges are overlaid by the uncertainty of climate change, which imposes a requirement to ensure that stormwater management systems are adaptable and resilient to changes. Urban hydrology will play a critical role in addressing these challenges.

Investigation of Future Thermal Comforts in a Tropical Megacity Using Coupling of Energy Balance Model and Large Eddy Simulation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sueishi, T.; Yucel, M.; Ashie, Y.; Varquez, A. C. G.; Inagaki, A.; Darmanto, N. S.; Nakayoshi, M.; Kanda, M.

2017-12-01

Recently, temperature in urban areas continue to rise as an effect of climate change and urbanization. Specifically, Asian megacities are projected to expand rapidly resulting to serious in the future atmospheric environment. Thus, detailed analysis of urban meteorology for Asian megacities is needed to prescribe optimum against these negative climate modifications. A building-resolving large eddy simulation (LES) coupled with an energy balance model is conducted for a highly urbanized district in central Jakarta on typical daytime hours. Five cases were considered; case 1 utilizes present urban scenario and four cases representing different urban configurations in 2050. The future configurations were based on representative concentration pathways (RCP) and shared socio-economic pathways (SSP). Building height maps and land use maps of simulation domains are shown in the attached figure (top). Case 1 3 focuses on the difference of future scenarios. Case 1 represents current climatic and urban conditions, case 2 and 3 was an idealized future represented by RCP2.6/SSP1 and RCP8.5/SSP3, respectively. More complex urban morphology was applied in case 4, vegetation and building area were changed in case 5. Meteorological inputs and anthropogenic heat emission (AHE) were calculated using Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model (Varquez et al [2017]). Sensible and latent heat flux from surfaces were calculated using an energy balance model (Ashie et al [2011]), with considers multi-reflection, evapotranspiration and evaporation. The results of energy balance model (shown in the middle line of figure), in addition to WRF outputs, were used as input into the PArallelized LES Model (PALM) (Raasch et al [2001]). From standard new effective temperature (SET*) which included the effects of temperature, wind speed, humidity and radiation, thermal comfort in urban area was evaluated. SET* contours at 1 m height are shown in the bottom line of the figure. Extreme climate change increase average SET* as expected; however, construction of dense high-rise buildings (case 2) can minimize this effect due to increased shading throughout the district. Acknowledgement: This research was supported by the Environment Research and Technology Development Fund (S-14) of the Ministry of the Environment, Japan.

On the added value of WUDAPT for Urban Climate Modelling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Brousse, Oscar; Martilli, Alberto; Mills, Gerald; Bechtel, Benjamin; Hammerberg, Kris; Demuzere, Matthias; Wouters, Hendrik; Van Lipzig, Nicole; Ren, Chao; Feddema, Johannes J.; Masson, Valéry; Ching, Jason

2017-04-01

Over half of the planet's population now live in cities and is expected to grow up to 65% by 2050 (United Nations, 2014), most of whom will actually occupy new emerging cities of the global South. Cities' impact on climate is known to be a key driver of environmental change (IPCC, 2014) and has been studied for decades now (Howard, 1875). Still very little is known about our cities' structure around the world, preventing urban climate simulations to be done and hence guidance to be provided for mitigation. Assessing the need to bridge the urban knowledge gap for urban climate modelling perspectives, the World Urban Database and Access Portal Tool - WUDAPT - project (Ching et al., 2015; Mills et al., 2015) developed an innovative technique to map cities globally rapidly and freely. The framework established by Bechtel and Daneke (2012) derives Local Climate Zones (Stewart and Oke, 2012) city maps out of LANDSAT 8 OLI-TIRS imagery (Bechtel et al., 2015) through a supervised classification by a Random Forest Classification algorithm (Breiman, 2001). The first attempt to implement Local Climate Zones (LCZ) out of the WUDAPT product within a major climate model was carried out by Brousse et al. (2016) over Madrid, Spain. This study proved the applicability of LCZs as an enhanced urban parameterization within the WRF model (Chen et al. 2011) employing the urban canopy model BEP-BEM (Martilli, 2002; Salamanca et al., 2010), using the averaged values of the morphological and physical parameters' ranges proposed by Stewart and Oke (2012). Other studies have now used the Local Climate Zones for urban climate modelling purposes (Alexander et al., 2016; Wouters et al. 2016; Hammerberg et al., 2017; Brousse et al., 2017) and demonstrated the added value of the WUDAPT dataset. As urban data accessibility is one of the major challenge for simulations in emerging countries, this presentation will show results of simulations using LCZs and the capacity of the WUDAPT framework to be of high relevancy in multiple regions of the world, such as Africa or Asia.

Estimation of Anthropogenic Heat Emissions in Delhi, India and Their Role in Urban Heat Island Effect

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bhati, S.; Mohan, M.

2016-12-01

Energy consumption in the urban environment impacts the urban surface energy budget and leads to the emission of anthropogenic sensible heat into the atmosphere. Anthropogenic heat (AH) can vary both in time and space, and are not readily measured. In present study, anthropogenic heat emissions have been estimated using an inventory approach for Delhi. The main sources that have been considered are electricity consumption, vehicular emissions, fuel consumption in domestic sector and waste heat from power plants. Total estimated anthropogenic heat is apportioned gridwise (2 km2) and incorporated in the WRF (version 3.5) model coupled with single-layer Urban canopy model (UCM) to assess the impact of these emissions on urban heat island effect in Delhi. Vehicular emissions have been found to be highest contributor to anthropogenic heat emissions (47%) followed by electricity consumption (28%), domestic fuel consumption (16%) and waste heat from power plants (9%). Highest annual average anthropogenic heat flux was estimated to be 25.2 Wm-2. High flux zones are observed in east Delhi and densely occupied and commercial zones of Sitaram Bazar and Connaught Place. Inclusion of anthropogenic heat emissions in the model improves model performance for near surface temperature as well as urban heat island intensities. Maximum simulated night-time UHI improves from 5.95°C (without AH) to 6.24°C (with AH) against observed value of 6.68°C, thereby indicating positive contribution of anthropogenic heat emissions along with urban canopy towards UHI effect in Delhi. Similarly, spatial distribution and UHI hotspots are found to be comparatively closer to corresponding observed distribution and hotspots with anthropogenic heat emissions being added to the WRF model. Overall, relatively improved model performance is indicative of the impact of anthropogenic heat emissions in local urban meteorology and urban heat island effect in Delhi. Hence, rising population and change in land use-cover and associated anthropogenic activities call for strategic mitigation measures in the city to prevent further strengthening of heat island effect.

Impacts of future climate change on urban flood volumes in Hohhot in northern China: benefits of climate change mitigation and adaptations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhou, Qianqian; Leng, Guoyong; Huang, Maoyi

2018-01-01

As China becomes increasingly urbanised, flooding has become a regular occurrence in its major cities. Assessing the effects of future climate change on urban flood volumes is crucial to informing better management of such disasters given the severity of the devastating impacts of flooding (e.g. the 2016 flooding events across China). Although recent studies have investigated the impacts of future climate change on urban flooding, the effects of both climate change mitigation and adaptation have rarely been accounted for together in a consistent framework. In this study, we assess the benefits of mitigating climate change by reducing greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and locally adapting to climate change by modifying drainage systems to reduce urban flooding under various climate change scenarios through a case study conducted in northern China. The urban drainage model - Storm Water Management Model - was used to simulate urban flood volumes using current and two adapted drainage systems (i.e. pipe enlargement and low-impact development, LID), driven by bias-corrected meteorological forcing from five general circulation models in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 archive. Results indicate that urban flood volume is projected to increase by 52 % over 2020-2040 compared to the volume in 1971-2000 under the business-as-usual scenario (i.e. Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 8.5). The magnitudes of urban flood volumes are found to increase nonlinearly with changes in precipitation intensity. On average, the projected flood volume under RCP 2.6 is 13 % less than that under RCP 8.5, demonstrating the benefits of global-scale climate change mitigation efforts in reducing local urban flood volumes. Comparison of reduced flood volumes between climate change mitigation and local adaptation (by improving drainage systems) scenarios suggests that local adaptation is more effective than climate change mitigation in reducing future flood volumes. This has broad implications for the research community relative to drainage system design and modelling in a changing environment. This study highlights the importance of accounting for local adaptation when coping with future urban floods.

Impacts of future climate change on urban flood volumes in Hohhot in northern China: benefits of climate change mitigation and adaptations

DOE PAGES

Zhou, Qianqian; Leng, Guoyong; Huang, Maoyi

2018-01-15

As China becomes increasingly urbanised, flooding has become a regular occurrence in its major cities. Assessing the effects of future climate change on urban flood volumes is crucial to informing better management of such disasters given the severity of the devastating impacts of flooding (e.g. the 2016 flooding events across China). Although recent studies have investigated the impacts of future climate change on urban flooding, the effects of both climate change mitigation and adaptation have rarely been accounted for together in a consistent framework. In this study, we assess the benefits of mitigating climate change by reducing greenhouse gas (GHG)more » emissions and locally adapting to climate change by modifying drainage systems to reduce urban flooding under various climate change scenarios through a case study conducted in northern China. The urban drainage model – Storm Water Management Model – was used to simulate urban flood volumes using current and two adapted drainage systems (i.e. pipe enlargement and low-impact development, LID), driven by bias-corrected meteorological forcing from five general circulation models in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 archive. Results indicate that urban flood volume is projected to increase by 52 % over 2020–2040 compared to the volume in 1971–2000 under the business-as-usual scenario (i.e. Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 8.5). The magnitudes of urban flood volumes are found to increase nonlinearly with changes in precipitation intensity. On average, the projected flood volume under RCP 2.6 is 13 % less than that under RCP 8.5, demonstrating the benefits of global-scale climate change mitigation efforts in reducing local urban flood volumes. Comparison of reduced flood volumes between climate change mitigation and local adaptation (by improving drainage systems) scenarios suggests that local adaptation is more effective than climate change mitigation in reducing future flood volumes. This has broad implications for the research community relative to drainage system design and modelling in a changing environment. Furthermore, this study highlights the importance of accounting for local adaptation when coping with future urban floods.« less

Development of urban water consumption models for the City of Los Angeles

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mini, C.; Hogue, T. S.; Pincetl, S.

2011-12-01

Population growth and rapid urbanization coupled with uncertain climate change are causing new challenges for meeting urban water needs. In arid and semi-arid regions, increasing drought periods and decreasing precipitation have led to water supply shortages and cities are struggling with trade-offs between the water needs of growing urban populations and the well-being of urban ecosystems. The goal of the current research is to build models that can represent urban water use patterns in semi-arid cities by identifying the determinants that control both total and outdoor residential water use over the Los Angeles urban domain. The initial database contains monthly water use records aggregated to the zip code level collected from the Los Angeles Department of Water and Power (LADWP) from 2000 to 2010. Residential water use was normalized per capita and was correlated with socio-demographic, economic, climatic and vegetation characteristics across the City for the 2000-2010 period. Results show that ethnicity, per capita income, and the average number of persons per household are linearly related to total water use per capita. Inter-annual differences in precipitation and implementation of conservation measures affect water use levels across the City. The high variability in water use patterns across the City also appears strongly influenced by income and education levels. The temporal analysis of vegetation indices in the studied neighborhoods shows little correlation between precipitation patterns and vegetation greenness. Urban vegetation appears well-watered, presenting the same greenness activity over the study period despite an overall decrease in water use across the City. We hypothesize that over-watering is occurring and that outdoor water use represents a significant part of the residential water budget in various regions of the City. A multiple regression model has been developed that integrates these fundamental controlling factors to simulate residential water use patterns across the City. The performance of the linear regression model is being tested and compared with other algorithm-based simulations for improved modeling of urban water consumption in the region. Ultimately, projects results will contribute to the implementation of sustainable strategies targeted to specific urban areas for a growing population under uncertain climate variability.

Impacts of future climate change on urban flood volumes in Hohhot in northern China: benefits of climate change mitigation and adaptations

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Zhou, Qianqian; Leng, Guoyong; Huang, Maoyi

As China becomes increasingly urbanised, flooding has become a regular occurrence in its major cities. Assessing the effects of future climate change on urban flood volumes is crucial to informing better management of such disasters given the severity of the devastating impacts of flooding (e.g. the 2016 flooding events across China). Although recent studies have investigated the impacts of future climate change on urban flooding, the effects of both climate change mitigation and adaptation have rarely been accounted for together in a consistent framework. In this study, we assess the benefits of mitigating climate change by reducing greenhouse gas (GHG)more » emissions and locally adapting to climate change by modifying drainage systems to reduce urban flooding under various climate change scenarios through a case study conducted in northern China. The urban drainage model – Storm Water Management Model – was used to simulate urban flood volumes using current and two adapted drainage systems (i.e. pipe enlargement and low-impact development, LID), driven by bias-corrected meteorological forcing from five general circulation models in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 archive. Results indicate that urban flood volume is projected to increase by 52 % over 2020–2040 compared to the volume in 1971–2000 under the business-as-usual scenario (i.e. Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 8.5). The magnitudes of urban flood volumes are found to increase nonlinearly with changes in precipitation intensity. On average, the projected flood volume under RCP 2.6 is 13 % less than that under RCP 8.5, demonstrating the benefits of global-scale climate change mitigation efforts in reducing local urban flood volumes. Comparison of reduced flood volumes between climate change mitigation and local adaptation (by improving drainage systems) scenarios suggests that local adaptation is more effective than climate change mitigation in reducing future flood volumes. This has broad implications for the research community relative to drainage system design and modelling in a changing environment. Furthermore, this study highlights the importance of accounting for local adaptation when coping with future urban floods.« less

Urban watershed modeling in Seattle, Washington using VELMA – a spatially explicit ecohydrological watershed model

EPA Science Inventory

Urban watersheds are notoriously difficult to model due to their complex, small-scale combinations of landscape and land use characteristics including impervious surfaces that ultimately affect the hydrologic system. We utilized EPA’s Visualizing Ecosystem Land Management A...

A HYBRID MODELING APPROACH TO RESOLVE POLLUTANT CONCENTRATIONS IN AN URBAN AREA

EPA Science Inventory

A modeling tool that can resolve contributions from individual sources to the urban environment is critical for air-toxics exposure assessments. Air toxics are often chemically reactive and may have background concentrations originated from distant sources. Grid models are the be...

An u-Service Model Based on a Smart Phone for Urban Computing Environments

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cho, Yongyun; Yoe, Hyun

In urban computing environments, all of services should be based on the interaction between humans and environments around them, which frequently and ordinarily in home and office. This paper propose an u-service model based on a smart phone for urban computing environments. The suggested service model includes a context-aware and personalized service scenario development environment that can instantly describe user's u-service demand or situation information with smart devices. To do this, the architecture of the suggested service model consists of a graphical service editing environment for smart devices, an u-service platform, and an infrastructure with sensors and WSN/USN. The graphic editor expresses contexts as execution conditions of a new service through a context model based on ontology. The service platform deals with the service scenario according to contexts. With the suggested service model, an user in urban computing environments can quickly and easily make u-service or new service using smart devices.

On Models of Racial Prejudice and Urban Residential Structure.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Courant, Paul N.; Yinger, John

Economists have studied the effects of racial prejudice on urban residential structure using a set of models that focus on conditions at the border between the black and white areas. This paper reviews the theoretical literature on these border models and investigates their generality. Section 1 considers the border model developed by Bailey in…

Coupling high-resolution hydraulic and hydrologic models for flash flood forecasting and inundation mapping in urban areas - A case study for the City of Fort Worth

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nazari, B.; Seo, D.; Cannon, A.

2013-12-01

With many diverse features such as channels, pipes, culverts, buildings, etc., hydraulic modeling in urban areas for inundation mapping poses significant challenges. Identifying the practical extent of the details to be modeled in order to obtain sufficiently accurate results in a timely manner for effective emergency management is one of them. In this study we assess the tradeoffs between model complexity vs. information content for decision making in applying high-resolution hydrologic and hydraulic models for real-time flash flood forecasting and inundation mapping in urban areas. In a large urban area such as the Dallas-Fort Worth Metroplex (DFW), there exists very large spatial variability in imperviousness depending on the area of interest. As such, one may expect significant sensitivity of hydraulic model results to the resolution and accuracy of hydrologic models. In this work, we present the initial results from coupling of high-resolution hydrologic and hydraulic models for two 'hot spots' within the City of Fort Worth for real-time inundation mapping.

Impact of urbanization on flood of Shigu creek in Dongguan city

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pan, Luying; Chen, Yangbo; Zhang, Tao

2018-06-01

Shigu creek is a highly urbanized small watershed in Dongguan City. Due to rapid urbanization, quick flood response has been observed, which posted great threat to the flood security of Dongguan City. To evaluate the impact of urbanization on the flood changes of Shigu creek is very important for the flood mitigation of Shigu creek, which will provide insight for flood planners and managers for if to build a larger flood mitigation system. In this paper, the Land cover/use changes of Shigu creek from 1987-2015 induced by urbanization was first extracted from a local database, then, the Liuxihe model, a physically based distributed hydrological model, is employed to simulate the flood processes impacted by urbanization. Precipitation of 3 storms was used for flood processes simulation. The results show that the runoff coefficient and peak flow have increased sharply.

Impact of Climate Variability and Landscape Patterns on Water Budget and Nutrient Loads in a Peri-urban Watershed: A Coupled Analysis Using Process-based Hydrological Model and Landscape Indices.

PubMed

Li, Chongwei; Zhang, Yajuan; Kharel, Gehendra; Zou, Chris B

2018-06-01

Nutrient discharge into peri-urban streams and reservoirs constitutes a significant pressure on environmental management, but quantitative assessment of non-point source pollution under climate variability in fast changing peri-urban watersheds is challenging. Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) was used to simulate water budget and nutrient loads for landscape patterns representing a 30-year progression of urbanization in a peri-urban watershed near Tianjin metropolis, China. A suite of landscape pattern indices was related to nitrogen (N) and phosphorous (P) loads under dry and wet climate using CANOCO redundancy analysis. The calibrated SWAT model was adequate to simulate runoff and nutrient loads for this peri-urban watershed, with Nash-Sutcliffe coefficient (NSE) and coefficient of determination (R 2 ) > 0.70 and percentage bias (PBIAS) between -7 and +18 for calibration and validation periods. With the progression of urbanization, forest remained the main "sink" landscape while cultivated and urban lands remained the main "source" landscapes with the role of orchard and grassland being uncertain and changing with time. Compared to 1984, the landscape use pattern in 2013 increased nutrient discharge by 10%. Nutrient loads modelled under wet climate were 3-4 times higher than that under dry climate for the same landscape pattern. Results indicate that climate change could impose a far greater impact on runoff and nutrient discharge in a peri-urban watershed than landscape pattern change.

Impact of Climate Variability and Landscape Patterns on Water Budget and Nutrient Loads in a Peri-urban Watershed: A Coupled Analysis Using Process-based Hydrological Model and Landscape Indices

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, Chongwei; Zhang, Yajuan; Kharel, Gehendra; Zou, Chris B.

2018-06-01

Nutrient discharge into peri-urban streams and reservoirs constitutes a significant pressure on environmental management, but quantitative assessment of non-point source pollution under climate variability in fast changing peri-urban watersheds is challenging. Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) was used to simulate water budget and nutrient loads for landscape patterns representing a 30-year progression of urbanization in a peri-urban watershed near Tianjin metropolis, China. A suite of landscape pattern indices was related to nitrogen (N) and phosphorous (P) loads under dry and wet climate using CANOCO redundancy analysis. The calibrated SWAT model was adequate to simulate runoff and nutrient loads for this peri-urban watershed, with Nash-Sutcliffe coefficient (NSE) and coefficient of determination ( R 2) > 0.70 and percentage bias (PBIAS) between -7 and +18 for calibration and validation periods. With the progression of urbanization, forest remained the main "sink" landscape while cultivated and urban lands remained the main "source" landscapes with the role of orchard and grassland being uncertain and changing with time. Compared to 1984, the landscape use pattern in 2013 increased nutrient discharge by 10%. Nutrient loads modelled under wet climate were 3-4 times higher than that under dry climate for the same landscape pattern. Results indicate that climate change could impose a far greater impact on runoff and nutrient discharge in a peri-urban watershed than landscape pattern change.

Model of Environmental Development of the Urbanized Areas: Accounting of Ecological and other Factors

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Abanina, E. N.; Pandakov, K. G.; Agapov, D. A.; Sorokina, Yu V.; Vasiliev, E. H.

2017-05-01

Modern cities and towns are often characterized by poor administration, which could be the reason of environmental degradation, the poverty growth, decline in economic growth and social isolation. In these circumstances it is really important to conduct fresh researches forming new ways of sustainable development of administrative districts. This development of the urban areas depends on many interdependent factors: ecological, economic, social. In this article we show some theoretical aspects of forming a model of environmental progress of the urbanized areas. We submit some model containing four levels including natural resources capacities of the territory, its social features, economic growth and human impact. The author describes the interrelations of elements of the model. In this article the program of environmental development of a city is offered and it could be used in any urban area.

Development and application of a high resolution hybrid modelling system for the evaluation of urban air quality

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pepe, N.; Pirovano, G.; Lonati, G.; Balzarini, A.; Toppetti, A.; Riva, G. M.; Bedogni, M.

2016-09-01

A hybrid modelling system (HMS) was developed to provide hourly concentrations at the urban local scale. The system is based on the combination of a meteorological model (WRF), a chemical and transport eulerian model (CAMx), which computes concentration levels over the regional domains, and a lagrangian dispersion model (AUSTAL2000), accounting for dispersion phenomena within the urban area due to local emission sources; a source apportionment algorithm is also included in the HMS in order to avoid the double counting of local emissions. The HMS was applied over a set of nested domains, the innermost covering a 1.6 × 1.6 km2 area in Milan city center with 20 m grid resolution, for NOX simulation in 2010. For this paper the innermost domain was defined as ;local;, excluding usual definition of urban areas. WRF model captured the overall evolution of the main meteorological features, except for some very stagnant situations, thus influencing the subsequent performance of regional scale model CAMx. Indeed, CAMx was able to reproduce the spatial and temporal evolution of NOX concentration over the regional domain, except a few episodes, when observed concentrations were higher than 100 ppb. The local scale model AUSTAL2000 provided high-resolution concentration fields that sensibly mirrored the road and traffic pattern in the urban domain. Therefore, the first important outcome of the work is that the application of the hybrid modelling system allowed a thorough and consistent description of urban air quality. This result represents a relevant starting point for future evaluation of pollution exposure within an urban context. However, the overall performance of the HMS did not provide remarkable improvements with respect to stand-alone CAMx at the two only monitoring sites in Milan city center. HMS results were characterized by a smaller average bias, that improved about 6-8 ppb corresponding to 12-13% of the observed concentration, but by a lower correlation, that worsened around 1-3% (e.g. from 0.84 to 0.81 at Senato site), due to the concentration peaks produced by AUSTAL2000 during nighttime stable conditions. Additionally, the HMS results showed that it was unable to correctly take into account some local scale features (e.g. urban canyon effects), pointing out that the emission spatialization and time modulation criteria, especially those from road traffic, need further improvement. Nevertheless, a second important outcome of the work is that some of the most relevant discrepancies between modelled and observed concentrations were not related to the horizontal resolution of the dispersion models but to larger scale meteorological features not captured by the meteorological model, especially during winter period. Finally, the estimated contribution of the local emission sources accounted on the annual average for about 25-30% of the computed concentration levels in the innermost urban domain. This confirmed that the whole Milan urban area as well as the outside background areas, accounting all sources outside the innermost domain, play a key role on air quality. The result suggests that strictly local emission policies could have a limited and indecisive effect on urban air quality, although this finding could be partially biased by model underestimation of the observed concentration.

Quality Assessment and Comparison of Smartphone and Leica C10 Laser Scanner Based Point Clouds

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sirmacek, Beril; Lindenbergh, Roderik; Wang, Jinhu

2016-06-01

3D urban models are valuable for urban map generation, environment monitoring, safety planning and educational purposes. For 3D measurement of urban structures, generally airborne laser scanning sensors or multi-view satellite images are used as a data source. However, close-range sensors (such as terrestrial laser scanners) and low cost cameras (which can generate point clouds based on photogrammetry) can provide denser sampling of 3D surface geometry. Unfortunately, terrestrial laser scanning sensors are expensive and trained persons are needed to use them for point cloud acquisition. A potential effective 3D modelling can be generated based on a low cost smartphone sensor. Herein, we show examples of using smartphone camera images to generate 3D models of urban structures. We compare a smartphone based 3D model of an example structure with a terrestrial laser scanning point cloud of the structure. This comparison gives us opportunity to discuss the differences in terms of geometrical correctness, as well as the advantages, disadvantages and limitations in data acquisition and processing. We also discuss how smartphone based point clouds can help to solve further problems with 3D urban model generation in a practical way. We show that terrestrial laser scanning point clouds which do not have color information can be colored using smartphones. The experiments, discussions and scientific findings might be insightful for the future studies in fast, easy and low-cost 3D urban model generation field.

High-resolution stochastic generation of extreme rainfall intensity for urban drainage modelling applications

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Peleg, Nadav; Blumensaat, Frank; Molnar, Peter; Fatichi, Simone; Burlando, Paolo

2016-04-01

Urban drainage response is highly dependent on the spatial and temporal structure of rainfall. Therefore, measuring and simulating rainfall at a high spatial and temporal resolution is a fundamental step to fully assess urban drainage system reliability and related uncertainties. This is even more relevant when considering extreme rainfall events. However, the current space-time rainfall models have limitations in capturing extreme rainfall intensity statistics for short durations. Here, we use the STREAP (Space-Time Realizations of Areal Precipitation) model, which is a novel stochastic rainfall generator for simulating high-resolution rainfall fields that preserve the spatio-temporal structure of rainfall and its statistical characteristics. The model enables a generation of rain fields at 102 m and minute scales in a fast and computer-efficient way matching the requirements for hydrological analysis of urban drainage systems. The STREAP model was applied successfully in the past to generate high-resolution extreme rainfall intensities over a small domain. A sub-catchment in the city of Luzern (Switzerland) was chosen as a case study to: (i) evaluate the ability of STREAP to disaggregate extreme rainfall intensities for urban drainage applications; (ii) assessing the role of stochastic climate variability of rainfall in flow response and (iii) evaluate the degree of non-linearity between extreme rainfall intensity and system response (i.e. flow) for a small urban catchment. The channel flow at the catchment outlet is simulated by means of a calibrated hydrodynamic sewer model.

Forecasting the combined effects of urbanization and climate change on stream ecosystems: from impacts to management options

PubMed Central

Nelson, Kären C; Palmer, Margaret A; Pizzuto, James E; Moglen, Glenn E; Angermeier, Paul L; Hilderbrand, Robert H; Dettinger, Michael; Hayhoe, Katharine

2009-01-01

Streams collect runoff, heat, and sediment from their watersheds, making them highly vulnerable to anthropogenic disturbances such as urbanization and climate change. Forecasting the effects of these disturbances using process-based models is critical to identifying the form and magnitude of likely impacts. Here, we integrate a new biotic model with four previously developed physical models (downscaled climate projections, stream hydrology, geomorphology, and water temperature) to predict how stream fish growth and reproduction will most probably respond to shifts in climate and urbanization over the next several decades. The biotic submodel couples dynamics in fish populations and habitat suitability to predict fish assemblage composition, based on readily available biotic information (preferences for habitat, temperature, and food, and characteristics of spawning) and day-to-day variability in stream conditions. We illustrate the model using Piedmont headwater streams in the Chesapeake Bay watershed of the USA, projecting ten scenarios: Baseline (low urbanization; no on-going construction; and present-day climate); one Urbanization scenario (higher impervious surface, lower forest cover, significant construction activity); four future climate change scenarios [Hadley CM3 and Parallel Climate Models under medium-high (A2) and medium-low (B2) emissions scenarios]; and the same four climate change scenarios plus Urbanization. Urbanization alone depressed growth or reproduction of 8 of 39 species, while climate change alone depressed 22 to 29 species. Almost every recreationally important species (i.e. trouts, basses, sunfishes) and six of the ten currently most common species were predicted to be significantly stressed. The combined effect of climate change and urbanization on adult growth was sometimes large compared to the effect of either stressor alone. Thus, the model predicts considerable change in fish assemblage composition, including loss of diversity. Synthesis and applications. The interaction of climate change and urban growth may entail significant reconfiguring of headwater streams, including a loss of ecosystem structure and services, which will be more costly than climate change alone. On local scales, stakeholders cannot control climate drivers but they can mitigate stream impacts via careful land use. Therefore, to conserve stream ecosystems, we recommend that proactive measures be taken to insure against species loss or severe population declines. Delays will inevitably exacerbate the impacts of both climate change and urbanization on headwater systems. PMID:19536343

[Urban dynamics in the decade of the 1980s: concentration of in-migration, spatial segregation and social exclusion].

PubMed

Contreras, A M

1991-01-01

The effects of 2 basic socioeconomic processes of the 1980s on urban dynamics in the Dominican Republic are described. The 2 processes were the restructuring of the national productive apparatus following anew model of accumulation that stressed external markets, and the urban political economy of the years 1986-90, in which priority was given to public investment in construction as an activity favoring economic growth and employment. The interest in urban remodeling and transit renovation implied neglect of other basic sectors including education, agriculture, energy,and health. A series of fiscal measures was necessary to finance the investment program, and the inflation resulting from the investment program had significant effects on real income of the population. The new economic model encountered its competitive edge in wage depression and constant devaluations. The process of inflation-devaluation reinforced the regressive effects of the model on income, resulting in price increases for urban land and exclusion of the majority of the population from the urban housing market. The new economic model has led to dismantling of the national productive apparatus and consolidation of so-called "productive extroversion," with free economic zones and tourism the focus of accumulation related to the international market. The informal sector has grown because of inflation and because of the crisis in industrial activities destined for the internal market. Agricultural production for internal consumption declined over the decade, encouraging rural-urban migration and further swelling of the informal sector. Growth of Santo Domingo's suburbs and surrounding rural areas is 1 of the main effects of the model. By the year 2000, it is estimated that metropolitan Santo Domingo will contain 45% of the total population of the Dominican Republic. Although no exact functional correspondence can be established between urban policy and the model of accumulation, there are 3 aspects in which the dynamics of the 2 processes complement each other synergistically and perniciously: income concentration, social exclusion, and spatial segregation. Income concentration is increased by inflation and the repeated devaluations, the dismantling of small and medium-sized enterprises, and declining social expenditures. Social exclusion and spatial segregation are furthered by rising urban land prices and exclusion of most of the population from the urban land and housing market and demographic consolidation of periurban centers and rural sectors of the National District.

First results from the International Urban Energy Balance Model Comparison: Model Complexity

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Blackett, M.; Grimmond, S.; Best, M.

2009-04-01

A great variety of urban energy balance models has been developed. These vary in complexity from simple schemes that represent the city as a slab, through those which model various facets (i.e. road, walls and roof) to more complex urban forms (including street canyons with intersections) and features (such as vegetation cover and anthropogenic heat fluxes). Some schemes also incorporate detailed representations of momentum and energy fluxes distributed throughout various layers of the urban canopy layer. The models each differ in the parameters they require to describe the site and the in demands they make on computational processing power. Many of these models have been evaluated using observational datasets but to date, no controlled comparisons have been conducted. Urban surface energy balance models provide a means to predict the energy exchange processes which influence factors such as urban temperature, humidity, atmospheric stability and winds. These all need to be modelled accurately to capture features such as the urban heat island effect and to provide key information for dispersion and air quality modelling. A comparison of the various models available will assist in improving current and future models and will assist in formulating research priorities for future observational campaigns within urban areas. In this presentation we will summarise the initial results of this international urban energy balance model comparison. In particular, the relative performance of the models involved will be compared based on their degree of complexity. These results will inform us on ways in which we can improve the modelling of air quality within, and climate impacts of, global megacities. The methodology employed in conducting this comparison followed that used in PILPS (the Project for Intercomparison of Land-Surface Parameterization Schemes) which is also endorsed by the GEWEX Global Land Atmosphere System Study (GLASS) panel. In all cases, models were run offline to ensure no feedback to larger scale conditions within the modelling domain. Initially, participants were issued with just forcing data from an unknown urban site (termed "Alpha"); in subsequent stages, further details of the site were provided. Results from each stage, for each participating model, were then compared using a variety of statistical and graphical techniques. * The EGU2009-5713 Team: C.S.B. Grimmond1, M. Blackett1, M. Best2 and J. Barlow3and J.-J. Baik4, S. Belcher3, S. Bohnenstengel3, I. Calmet5, F. Chen6, A. Dandou7, K. Fortuniak8, M. Gouvea1, R. Hamdi9, M. Hendry2, H. Kondo10, S. Krayenhoff11, S. H. Lee4, T. Loridan1, A. Martilli12, S. Miao13, K. Oleson6, G. Pigeon14, A. Porson2,3, F. Salamanca12, L. Shashua-Bar15, G.-J. Steeneveld16, M. Tombrou7, J. Voogt17, N. Zhang18. 1King's College London, UK, 2UK Met Office, UK, 3University of Reading, UK, 4Seoul National University, Korea, 5Ecole Centrale de Nantes, France, 6National Center for Atmospheric Research, USA, 7University of Athens, Greece, 8University of Ł ódź , Poland, 9Royal Meteorological Institute, Belgium, 10National Institute of Advanced Industrial Science and Technology, Japan, 11University of British Columbia, Canada, 12CIEMAT, Spain, 13IUM, CMA, China, 14Meteo France, France, 15Ben Gurion University, Israel, 16Wageningen University, Netherlands, 17University of Western Ontario, Canada, 18Nanjing University, China.

Estimating the deposition of urban atmospheric NO2 to the urban forest in Portland-Vancouver USA

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rao, M.; Gonzalez Abraham, R.; George, L. A.

2016-12-01

Cities are hotspots of atmospheric emissions of reactive nitrogen oxides, including nitrogen dioxide (NO2), a US EPA criteria pollutant that affects both human and environmental health. A fraction of this anthropogenic, atmospheric NO2 is deposited onto the urban forest, potentially mitigating the impact of NO2 on respiratory health within cities. However, the role of the urban forest in removal of atmospheric NO2 through deposition has not been well studied. Here, using an observationally-based statistical model, we first estimate the reduction of NO2 associated with the urban forest in Portland-Vancouver, USA, and the health benefits accruing from this reduction. In order to assess if this statistically observed reduction in NO2 associated with the urban forest is consistent with deposition, we then compare the amount of NO2 removed through deposition to the urban forest as estimated using a 4km CMAQ simulation. We further undertake a sensitivity analysis in CMAQ to estimate the range of NO2removed as a function of bulk stomatal resistance. We find that NO2 deposition estimated by CMAQ accounts for roughly one-third of the reduction in NO2 shown by the observationally-based statistical model (Figure). Our sensitivity analysis shows that a 3-10 fold increase in the bulk stomatal resistance parameter in CMAQ would align CMAQ-estimated deposition with the statistical model. The reduction of NO2 by the urban forest in the Portland-Vancouver area may yield a health benefit of at least $1.5 million USD annually, providing strong motivation to better understand the mechanism through which the urban forest may be removing air pollutants such as NO2and thus helping create healthier urban atmospheres. Figure: Comparing the amount of NO2 deposition as estimated by CMAQ and the observationally-based statistical model (LURF). Each point corresponds to a single 4 x 4km CMAQ grid cell.