Human-environment interactions and sustainable urban development: Spatial modeling and landscape prediction the case of Nang Rong town, Thailand

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Varnakovida, Pariwate

It is now well-recognized that, at local, regional, and global scales, land use changes are significantly altering land cover, perhaps at an accelerating pace. Further, the world's scientific community is increasingly recognizing what, in retrospect, should have been obvious, that human behavior and agency is a critical driver of Land Cover and Land Use Change. In this research, using recently developed computer modeling procedures and a rich case study, I develop spatially-explicit model-based simulations of LULCC scenarios within the rubric of sustainability science for Nang Rong town, Thailand. The research draws heavily on recent work in geography and complexity theory. A series of scenarios were built to explore different development trajectories based upon empirically observed relationships. The development models incorporate a) history and spatial pattern of village settlement; b) road development and changing geographic accessibility; c) population; d) biophysical characteristics and e) social drivers. This research uses multi-temporal and spatially-explicit data, analytic results, and dynamic modeling approaches combined with to describe, explain, and explore LULCC as the consequences of different production theories for rural, small town urbanization in the South East Asian context. Two Agent Based models were built: 1) Settlement model and 2) Land-use model. The Settlement model suggests that new development will emerge along the existing road network especially along the major highway and in close proximity to the urban center. If the population doubles in 2021, the settlement process may inhibit development along some corridors creating low density sprawl. The Land-use model under the urban expansion scenario suggests that new settlements will occur in close proximity to the town center and roads; even though, the area is suitable for rice farming or located on a flood plain. The Land-use model under the cash-crop expansion scenario captures that new agriculture will occur on the flood plain and other areas suitable for rice farming. The Land-use model under the King's Theory scenario suggests that agriculture agents occupied more disperse lands than the cash-crops scenario. In addition, the King's Theory scenario provided more access to water surface than other scenarios and was the most sustainable development plan. These products offer a better understanding of the urban growth and LULCC at a regional scale and will potentially guide more systematic and effective resource management and policy decisions. Although this research focuses on a specific site, the methods employed are applicable to other rural regions with similar characteristics.

Challenges associated with projecting urbanization-induced heat-related mortality.

PubMed

Hondula, David M; Georgescu, Matei; Balling, Robert C

2014-08-15

Maricopa County, Arizona, anchor to the fastest growing megapolitan area in the United States, is located in a hot desert climate where extreme temperatures are associated with elevated risk of mortality. Continued urbanization in the region will impact atmospheric temperatures and, as a result, potentially affect human health. We aimed to quantify the number of excess deaths attributable to heat in Maricopa County based on three future urbanization and adaptation scenarios and multiple exposure variables. Two scenarios (low and high growth projections) represent the maximum possible uncertainty range associated with urbanization in central Arizona, and a third represents the adaptation of high-albedo cool roof technology. Using a Poisson regression model, we related temperature to mortality using data spanning 1983-2007. Regional climate model simulations based on 2050-projected urbanization scenarios for Maricopa County generated distributions of temperature change, and from these predicted changes future excess heat-related mortality was estimated. Subject to urbanization scenario and exposure variable utilized, projections of heat-related mortality ranged from a decrease of 46 deaths per year (-95%) to an increase of 339 deaths per year (+359%). Projections based on minimum temperature showed the greatest increase for all expansion and adaptation scenarios and were substantially higher than those for daily mean temperature. Projections based on maximum temperature were largely associated with declining mortality. Low-growth and adaptation scenarios led to the smallest increase in predicted heat-related mortality based on mean temperature projections. Use of only one exposure variable to project future heat-related deaths may therefore be misrepresentative in terms of direction of change and magnitude of effects. Because urbanization-induced impacts can vary across the diurnal cycle, projections of heat-related health outcomes that do not consider place-based, time-varying urban heat island effects are neglecting essential elements for policy relevant decision-making. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

A framework for modeling anthropogenic impacts on waterbird habitats: addressing future uncertainty in conservation planning

USGS Publications Warehouse

Matchett, Elliott L.; Fleskes, Joseph P.; Young, Charles A.; Purkey, David R.

2015-01-01

The amount and quality of natural resources available for terrestrial and aquatic wildlife habitats are expected to decrease throughout the world in areas that are intensively managed for urban and agricultural uses. Changes in climate and management of increasingly limited water supplies may further impact water resources essential for sustaining habitats. In this report, we document adapting a Water Evaluation and Planning (WEAP) system model for the Central Valley of California. We demonstrate using this adapted model (WEAP-CVwh) to evaluate impacts produced from plausible future scenarios on agricultural and wetland habitats used by waterbirds and other wildlife. Processed output from WEAP-CVwh indicated varying levels of impact caused by projected climate, urbanization, and water supply management in scenarios used to exemplify this approach. Among scenarios, the NCAR-CCSM3 A2 climate projection had a greater impact than the CNRM-CM3 B1 climate projection, whereas expansive urbanization had a greater impact than strategic urbanization, on annual availability of waterbird habitat. Scenarios including extensive rice-idling or substantial instream flow requirements on important water supply sources produced large impacts on annual availability of waterbird habitat. In the year corresponding with the greatest habitat reduction for each scenario, the scenario including instream flow requirements resulted in the greatest decrease in habitats throughout all months of the wintering period relative to other scenarios. This approach provides a new and useful tool for habitat conservation planning in the Central Valley and a model to guide similar research investigations aiming to inform conservation, management, and restoration of important wildlife habitats.

Conservation in metropolitan regions: assessing trends and threats of urban development and climate change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Thorne, J. H.; Santos, M. J.; Bjorkman, J.

2011-12-01

Two global challenges to successful conservation are urban expansion and climate change. Rapid urban growth threatens biodiversity and associated ecosystem services, while climate change may make currently protected areas unsuitable for species that exist within them. We examined three measures of landscape change for 8800 km2 of the San Francisco Bay metropolitan region over 80 years past and future: urban growth, protected area establishment, and natural vegetation type extents. The Bay Area is a good test bed for conservation assessment of the impacts of temporal and spatial of urban growth and land cover change. The region is geographically rather small, with over 40% of its lands already dedicated to protected park and open space lands, they are well-documented, and, the area has had extensive population growth in the past and is projected to continue to grow. The ten-county region within which our study area is a subset has grown from 1.78 million people in 1930, to 6.97 million in 2000 and is estimated to grow to 10.94 million by 2050. With such an influx of people into a small geographic area, it is imperative to both examine the past urban expansion and estimate how the future population will be accommodated into the landscape. We quantify these trends to assess conservation 'success' through time. We used historical and current landcover maps to assess trend, and a GIS-based urban modeling (UPlan) to assess future urban growth impacts in the region, under three policy scenarios- business as usual, smart growth, and urban redevelopment. Impacts are measured by the amount of open space targeted by conservation planners in the region that will be urbanized under each urban growth policy. Impacts are also measured by estimates of the energy consumption projected for each of the scenarios on household and business unit level. The 'business as usual' and 'smart growth' scenarios differed little in their impacts to targeted conservation lands, because so little open space remains to accommodate the expected population growth. Redevelopment conserved more naturally vegetated open space. The redevelopment scenario also permits the lowest increase in energy demand because buildings taken out in the process are reconfigured to higher levels of energy efficiency. However, redevelopment requires substantial increases in residential densities to confine the spatial footprint of the expected future urban growth. These three urban growth scenario footprints differ in their impact to natural vegetation and open space. To incorporate the influence of climate change on remaining natural ecosystems in this urbanizing landscape, we projected the stability of existing, mapped, vegetation types in the region under future climates by examining where projected ranges of the dominant plant species comprising each California Wildlife Habitat Relationship type will all remain together, and where they will begin to dis-associate due to biogeographic response to changing climate. This permits identification of stable and unstable zones of vegetation. The combination of climate stable, high conservation priority and likelihood of urban development provides a way to prioritize conservation land acquisitions.

Nested High Resolution Modeling of the Impact of Urbanization on Regional Climate in Three Vast Urban Agglomerations in China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Jun; Feng, Jinming; Yan, Zhongwei; Hu, Yonghong; Jia, Gensuo

2013-04-01

In this paper, the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model coupled to the Urban Canopy Model (UCM) is employed to simulate the impact of urbanization on the regional climate over three vast city agglomerations in China. Based on high resolution land use and land cover data, two scenarios are designed to represent the non-urban and current urban land use distributions. By comparing the results of two nested, high resolution numerical experiments, the spatial and temporal changes on surface air temperature, heat stress index, surface energy budget and precipitation due to urbanization are analyzed and quantified. Urban expansion increases the surface air temperature in urban areas by about 1? and this climatic forcing of urbanization on temperature is more pronounced in summer and nighttime than other seasons and daytime. The heat stress intensity, which reflects the combined effects of temperature and humidity, is enhanced by about 0.5 units in urban areas. The regional incoming solar radiation increases after urban expansion, which may be caused by the reduction of cloud fraction. The increased temperature and roughness of the urban surface lead to enhanced convergence. Meanwhile, the planetary boundary layer is deepened and water vapor is mixed more evenly in the lower atmosphere. The deficit of water vapor leads to less convective available potential energy and more convective inhibition energy. Finally, these combined effects may reduce the rainfall amount over urban area mainly in summer and change the regional precipitation pattern to a certain extent.

Nested high-resolution modeling of the impact of urbanization on regional climate in three vast urban agglomerations in China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Jun; Feng, Jinming; Yan, Zhongwei; Hu, Yonghong; Jia, Gensuo

2012-11-01

In this paper, the Weather Research and Forecasting Model, coupled to the Urban Canopy Model, is employed to simulate the impact of urbanization on the regional climate over three vast city agglomerations in China. Based on high-resolution land use and land cover data, two scenarios are designed to represent the nonurban and current urban land use distributions. By comparing the results of two nested, high-resolution numerical experiments, the spatial and temporal changes on surface air temperature, heat stress index, surface energy budget, and precipitation due to urbanization are analyzed and quantified. Urban expansion increases the surface air temperature in urban areas by about 1°C, and this climatic forcing of urbanization on temperature is more pronounced in summer and nighttime than other seasons and daytime. The heat stress intensity, which reflects the combined effects of temperature and humidity, is enhanced by about 0.5 units in urban areas. The regional incoming solar radiation increases after urban expansion, which may be caused by the reduction of cloud fraction. The increased temperature and roughness of the urban surface lead to enhanced convergence. Meanwhile, the planetary boundary layer is deepened, and water vapor is mixed more evenly in the lower atmosphere. The deficit of water vapor leads to less convective available potential energy and more convective inhibition energy. Finally, these combined effects may reduce the rainfall amount over urban areas, mainly in summer, and change the regional precipitation pattern to a certain extent.

Projected Impacts of Climate, Urbanization, Water Management, and Wetland Restoration on Waterbird Habitat in California’s Central Valley

PubMed Central

Fleskes, Joseph P.

2017-01-01

The Central Valley of California is one of the most important regions for wintering waterbirds in North America despite extensive anthropogenic landscape modification and decline of historical wetlands there. Like many other mediterranean-climate ecosystems across the globe, the Central Valley has been subject to a burgeoning human population and expansion and intensification of agricultural and urban development that have impacted wildlife habitats. Future effects of urban development, changes in water supply management, and precipitation and air temperature related to global climate change on area of waterbird habitat in the Central Valley are uncertain, yet potentially substantial. Therefore, we modeled area of waterbird habitats for 17 climate, urbanization, water supply management, and wetland restoration scenarios for years 2006–2099 using a water resources and scenario modeling framework. Planned wetland restoration largely compensated for adverse effects of climate, urbanization, and water supply management changes on habitat areas through 2065, but fell short thereafter for all except one scenario. Projected habitat reductions due to climate models were more frequent and greater than under the recent historical climate and their magnitude increased through time. After 2065, area of waterbird habitat in all scenarios that included severe warmer, drier climate was projected to be >15% less than in the “existing” landscape most years. The greatest reduction in waterbird habitat occurred in scenarios that combined warmer, drier climate and plausible water supply management options affecting priority and delivery of water available for waterbird habitats. This scenario modeling addresses the complexity and uncertainties in the Central Valley landscape, use and management of related water supplies, and climate to inform waterbird habitat conservation and other resource management planning. Results indicate that increased wetland restoration and additional conservation and climate change adaptation strategies may be warranted to maintain habitat adequate to support waterbirds in the Central Valley. PMID:28068411

Projected Impacts of Climate, Urbanization, Water Management, and Wetland Restoration on Waterbird Habitat in California's Central Valley.

PubMed

Matchett, Elliott L; Fleskes, Joseph P

2017-01-01

The Central Valley of California is one of the most important regions for wintering waterbirds in North America despite extensive anthropogenic landscape modification and decline of historical wetlands there. Like many other mediterranean-climate ecosystems across the globe, the Central Valley has been subject to a burgeoning human population and expansion and intensification of agricultural and urban development that have impacted wildlife habitats. Future effects of urban development, changes in water supply management, and precipitation and air temperature related to global climate change on area of waterbird habitat in the Central Valley are uncertain, yet potentially substantial. Therefore, we modeled area of waterbird habitats for 17 climate, urbanization, water supply management, and wetland restoration scenarios for years 2006-2099 using a water resources and scenario modeling framework. Planned wetland restoration largely compensated for adverse effects of climate, urbanization, and water supply management changes on habitat areas through 2065, but fell short thereafter for all except one scenario. Projected habitat reductions due to climate models were more frequent and greater than under the recent historical climate and their magnitude increased through time. After 2065, area of waterbird habitat in all scenarios that included severe warmer, drier climate was projected to be >15% less than in the "existing" landscape most years. The greatest reduction in waterbird habitat occurred in scenarios that combined warmer, drier climate and plausible water supply management options affecting priority and delivery of water available for waterbird habitats. This scenario modeling addresses the complexity and uncertainties in the Central Valley landscape, use and management of related water supplies, and climate to inform waterbird habitat conservation and other resource management planning. Results indicate that increased wetland restoration and additional conservation and climate change adaptation strategies may be warranted to maintain habitat adequate to support waterbirds in the Central Valley.

Projected impacts of climate, urbanization, water management, and wetland restoration on waterbird habitat in California’s Central Valley

USGS Publications Warehouse

Matchett, Elliott L.; Fleskes, Joseph

2017-01-01

The Central Valley of California is one of the most important regions for wintering waterbirds in North America despite extensive anthropogenic landscape modification and decline of historical wetlands there. Like many other mediterranean-climate ecosystems across the globe, the Central Valley has been subject to a burgeoning human population and expansion and intensification of agricultural and urban development that have impacted wildlife habitats. Future effects of urban development, changes in water supply management, and precipitation and air temperature related to global climate change on area of waterbird habitat in the Central Valley are uncertain, yet potentially substantial. Therefore, we modeled area of waterbird habitats for 17 climate, urbanization, water supply management, and wetland restoration scenarios for years 2006–2099 using a water resources and scenario modeling framework. Planned wetland restoration largely compensated for adverse effects of climate, urbanization, and water supply management changes on habitat areas through 2065, but fell short thereafter for all except one scenario. Projected habitat reductions due to climate models were more frequent and greater than under the recent historical climate and their magnitude increased through time. After 2065, area of waterbird habitat in all scenarios that included severe warmer, drier climate was projected to be >15% less than in the “existing” landscape most years. The greatest reduction in waterbird habitat occurred in scenarios that combined warmer, drier climate and plausible water supply management options affecting priority and delivery of water available for waterbird habitats. This scenario modeling addresses the complexity and uncertainties in the Central Valley landscape, use and management of related water supplies, and climate to inform waterbird habitat conservation and other resource management planning. Results indicate that increased wetland restoration and additional conservation and climate change adaptation strategies may be warranted to maintain habitat adequate to support waterbirds in the Central Valley.

Effects of future urban and biofuel crop expansions on the riverine export of phosphorus to the Laurentian Great Lakes

USGS Publications Warehouse

LaBeau, Meredith B.; Robertson, Dale M.; Mayer, Alex S.; Pijanowski, Bryan C.; Saad, David A.

2013-01-01

Increased phosphorus (P) loadings threaten the health of the world’s largest freshwater resource, the Laurentian Great Lakes (GL). To understand the linkages between land use and P delivery, we coupled two spatially explicit models, the landscape-scale SPARROW P fate and transport watershed model and the Land Transformation Model (LTM) land use change model, to predict future P export from nonpoint and point sources caused by changes in land use. According to LTM predictions over the period 2010–2040, the GL region of the U.S. may experience a doubling of urbanized areas and agricultural areas may increase by 10%, due to biofuel feedstock cultivation. These land use changes are predicted to increase P loadings from the U.S. side of the GL basin by 3.5–9.5%, depending on the Lake watershed and development scenario. The exception is Lake Ontario, where loading is predicted to decrease by 1.8% for one scenario, due to population losses in the drainage area. Overall, urban expansion is estimated to increase P loadings by 3.4%. Agricultural expansion associated with predicted biofuel feedstock cultivation is predicted to increase P loadings by an additional 2.4%. Watersheds that export P most efficiently and thus are the most vulnerable to increases in P sources tend to be found along southern Lake Ontario, southeastern Lake Erie, western Lake Michigan, and southwestern Lake Superior where watershed areas are concentrated along the coastline with shorter flow paths. In contrast, watersheds with high soil permeabilities, fractions of land underlain by tile drains, and long distances to the GL are less vulnerable.

Spatial Linkage and Urban Expansion: AN Urban Agglomeration View

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jiao, L. M.; Tang, X.; Liu, X. P.

2017-09-01

Urban expansion displays different characteristics in each period. From the perspective of the urban agglomeration, studying the spatial and temporal characteristics of urban expansion plays an important role in understanding the complex relationship between urban expansion and network structure of urban agglomeration. We analyze urban expansion in the Yangtze River Delta Urban Agglomeration (YRD) through accessibility to and spatial interaction intensity from core cities as well as accessibility of road network. Results show that: (1) Correlation between urban expansion intensity and spatial indicators such as location and space syntax variables is remarkable and positive, while it decreases after rapid expansion. (2) Urban expansion velocity displays a positive correlation with spatial indicators mentioned above in the first (1980-1990) and second (1990-2000) period. However, it exhibits a negative relationship in the third period (2000-2010), i.e., cities located in the periphery of urban agglomeration developing more quickly. Consequently, the hypothesis of convergence of urban expansion in rapid expansion stage is put forward. (3) Results of Zipf's law and Gibrat's law show urban expansion in YRD displays a convergent trend in rapid expansion stage, small and medium-sized cities growing faster. This study shows that spatial linkage plays an important but evolving role in urban expansion within the urban agglomeration. In addition, it serves as a reference to the planning of Yangtze River Delta Urban Agglomeration and regulation of urban expansion of other urban agglomerations.

Detailed climate-change projections for urban land-use change and green-house gas increases for Belgium with COSMO-CLM coupled to TERRA_URB

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wouters, Hendrik; Vanden Broucke, Sam; van Lipzig, Nicole; Demuzere, Matthias

2016-04-01

Recent research clearly show that climate modelling at high resolution - which resolve the deep convection, the detailed orography and land-use including urbanization - leads to better modelling performance with respect to temperatures, the boundary-layer, clouds and precipitation. The increasing computational power enables the climate research community to address climate-change projections with higher accuracy and much more detail. In the framework of the CORDEX.be project aiming for coherent high-resolution micro-ensemble projections for Belgium employing different GCMs and RCMs, the KU Leuven contributes by means of the downscaling of EC-EARTH global climate model projections (provided by the Royal Meteorological Institute of the Netherlands) to the Belgian domain. The downscaling is obtained with regional climate simulations at 12.5km resolution over Europe (CORDEX-EU domain) and at 2.8km resolution over Belgium (CORDEX.be domain) using COSMO-CLM coupled to urban land-surface parametrization TERRA_URB. This is done for the present-day (1975-2005) and future (2040 → 2070 and 2070 → 2100). In these high-resolution runs, both GHG changes (in accordance to RCP8.5) and urban land-use changes (in accordance to a business-as-usual urban expansion scenario) are taken into account. Based on these simulations, it is shown how climate-change statistics are modified when going from coarse resolution modelling to high-resolution modelling. The climate-change statistics of particular interest are the changes in number of extreme precipitation events and extreme heat waves in cities. Hereby, it is futher investigated for the robustness of the signal change between the course and high-resolution and whether a (statistical) translation is possible. The different simulations also allow to address the relative impact and synergy between the urban expansion and increased GHG on the climate-change statistics. Hereby, it is investigated for which climate-change statistics the urban heat island and urban expansion is relevant, and to what extent the urban expansion can be included in the coarse-to-high resolution translation.

Climates of U.S. cities in the 21st century

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Krayenhoff, E. S.; Georgescu, M.; Moustaoui, M.

2017-12-01

Urban climates are projected to warm over the 21st century due to global climate change and urban development. To assess this projected warming, Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model simulations are performed at 20 km resolution over the contiguous U.S. for three 10-year periods: contemporary (2000-2009), mid-century (2050-2059), and end-of-century (2090-2099). Urban land use projections are derived from the EPA's ICLUS data set, and future climate projections are based on two global climate models and two greenhouse gas emissions scenarios. The potential for design implementations such as `green' roofs and high albedo roofs to offset the projected warming is considered. Effects of urban expansion, urban densification and infrastructure adaptation on urban climate are compared over the century. Assessment considers impacts at both seasonal and diurnal scales, isolates fair weather impacts, and considers multiple climate variables: air temperature, precipitation, humidity, wind speed, and surface energy budget partitioning.

[Spatiotemporal characteristics of urban land expansion in central area of Shanghai, China].

PubMed

Hu, Han-Wen; Wei, Ben-Sheng; Shen, Xing-Hua; Li, Jun-Xiang

2013-12-01

Using the high spatial resolution (2.5 m) color-infrared aerial photos acquired in 1989, 1994, 2000 and 2005, this paper analyzed the spatiotemporal characteristics of rapid urban expansion in central Shanghai with urban expansion intensity index and gradient analysis. Results showed that urban land use in Shanghai increased rapidly in a "pancake" style during the study period, and the anisotropic urban expansion moved the urban center 2.62 km toward southwest. The urban land use expansion intensity doubled and showed a rural-urban gradient. The most intensive urban expansion zone fell in the rural-urban transition zone, indicating the dominance of peripheral expansion as the primary urban expansion mode in Shanghai. However, the urban land use intensity decreased with time at the urban center. The primary driving forces of urban expansion included support from government policies and decision-making, enhanced economic activities, societal fixed assets investment, urban infrastructure investment, extension of transportation routes, as well as increase in urban population.

Intelligent path loss prediction engine design using machine learning in the urban outdoor environment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Ruichen; Lu, Jingyang; Xu, Yiran; Shen, Dan; Chen, Genshe; Pham, Khanh; Blasch, Erik

2018-05-01

Due to the progressive expansion of public mobile networks and the dramatic growth of the number of wireless users in recent years, researchers are motivated to study the radio propagation in urban environments and develop reliable and fast path loss prediction models. During last decades, different types of propagation models are developed for urban scenario path loss predictions such as the Hata model and the COST 231 model. In this paper, the path loss prediction model is thoroughly investigated using machine learning approaches. Different non-linear feature selection methods are deployed and investigated to reduce the computational complexity. The simulation results are provided to demonstratethe validity of the machine learning based path loss prediction engine, which can correctly determine the signal propagation in a wireless urban setting.

Built Expansion and Global Climate Change Drive Projected Urban Heat: Relative Magnitudes, Interactions, and Mitigation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Krayenhoff, E. S.; Georgescu, M.; Moustaoui, M.

2016-12-01

Surface climates are projected to warm due to global climate change over the course of the 21st century, and demographic projections suggest urban areas in the United States will continue to expand and develop, with associated local climate outcomes. Interactions between these two drivers of urban heat have not been robustly quantified to date. Here, simulations with the Weather Research and Forecasting model (coupled to a Single-Layer Urban Canopy Model) are performed at 20 km resolution over the continental U.S. for two 10-year periods: contemporary (2000-2009) and end-of-century (2090-2099). Present and end of century urban land use are derived from the Environmental Protection Agency's Integrated Climate and Land-Use Scenarios. Modelled effects on urban climates are evaluated regionally. Sensitivity to climate projection (Community Climate System Model 4.0, RCP 4.5 vs. RCP 8.5) and associated urban development scenarios are assessed. Effects on near-surface urban air temperature of RCP8.5 climate change are greater than those attributable to the corresponding urban development in many regions. Interaction effects vary by region, and while of lesser magnitude, are not negligible. Moreover, urban development and its interactions with RCP8.5 climate change modify the distribution of convective precipitation over the eastern US. Interaction effects result from the different meteorological effects of urban areas under current and future climate. Finally, the potential for design implementations such as green roofs and high albedo roofs to offset the projected warming is considered. Impacts of these implementations on precipitation are also assessed.

Mediterranean California’s water use future under multiple scenarios of developed and agricultural land use change

USGS Publications Warehouse

Wilson, Tamara; Sleeter, Benjamin M.; Cameron, D. Richard

2017-01-01

With growing demand and highly variable inter-annual water supplies, California’s water use future is fraught with uncertainty. Climate change projections, anticipated population growth, and continued agricultural intensification, will likely stress existing water supplies in coming decades. Using a state-and-transition simulation modeling approach, we examine a broad suite of spatially explicit future land use scenarios and their associated county-level water use demand out to 2062. We examined a range of potential water demand futures sampled from a 20-year record of historical (1992–2012) data to develop a suite of potential future land change scenarios, including low/high change scenarios for urbanization and agriculture as well as “lowest of the low” and “highest of the high” anthropogenic use. Future water demand decreased 8.3 billion cubic meters (Bm3) in the lowest of the low scenario and decreased 0.8 Bm3 in the low agriculture scenario. The greatest increased water demand was projected for the highest of the high land use scenario (+9.4 Bm3), high agricultural expansion (+4.6 Bm3), and high urbanization (+2.1 Bm3) scenarios. Overall, these scenarios show agricultural land use decisions will likely drive future demand more than increasing municipal and industrial uses, yet improved efficiencies across all sectors could lead to potential water use savings. Results provide water managers with information on diverging land use and water use futures, based on historical, observed land change trends and water use histories.

Mediterranean California’s water use future under multiple scenarios of developed and agricultural land use change

PubMed Central

Sleeter, Benjamin M.; Cameron, D. Richard

2017-01-01

With growing demand and highly variable inter-annual water supplies, California’s water use future is fraught with uncertainty. Climate change projections, anticipated population growth, and continued agricultural intensification, will likely stress existing water supplies in coming decades. Using a state-and-transition simulation modeling approach, we examine a broad suite of spatially explicit future land use scenarios and their associated county-level water use demand out to 2062. We examined a range of potential water demand futures sampled from a 20-year record of historical (1992–2012) data to develop a suite of potential future land change scenarios, including low/high change scenarios for urbanization and agriculture as well as “lowest of the low” and “highest of the high” anthropogenic use. Future water demand decreased 8.3 billion cubic meters (Bm3) in the lowest of the low scenario and decreased 0.8 Bm3 in the low agriculture scenario. The greatest increased water demand was projected for the highest of the high land use scenario (+9.4 Bm3), high agricultural expansion (+4.6 Bm3), and high urbanization (+2.1 Bm3) scenarios. Overall, these scenarios show agricultural land use decisions will likely drive future demand more than increasing municipal and industrial uses, yet improved efficiencies across all sectors could lead to potential water use savings. Results provide water managers with information on diverging land use and water use futures, based on historical, observed land change trends and water use histories. PMID:29088254

Quantitative analysis of urban sprawl in Tripoli using Pearson's Chi-Square statistics and urban expansion intensity index

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Al-sharif, Abubakr A. A.; Pradhan, Biswajeet; Zulhaidi Mohd Shafri, Helmi; Mansor, Shattri

2014-06-01

Urban expansion is a spatial phenomenon that reflects the increased level of importance of metropolises. The remotely sensed data and GIS have been widely used to study and analyze the process of urban expansions and their patterns. The capital of Libya (Tripoli) was selected to perform this study and to examine its urban growth patterns. Four satellite imageries of the study area in different dates (1984, 1996, 2002 and 2010) were used to conduct this research. The main goal of this work is identification and analyzes the urban sprawl of Tripoli metropolitan area. Urban expansion intensity index (UEII) and degree of freedom test were used to analyze and assess urban expansions in the area of study. The results show that Tripoli has sprawled urban expansion patterns; high urban expansion intensity index; and its urban development had high degree of freedom according to its urban expansion history during the time period (1984-2010). However, the novel proposed hypothesis used for zones division resulted in very good insight understanding of urban expansion direction and the effect of the distance from central business of district (CBD).

Excellent approach to modeling urban expansion by fuzzy cellular automata: agent base model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Khajavigodellou, Yousef; Alesheikh, Ali A.; Mohammed, Abdulrazak A. S.; Chapi, Kamran

2014-09-01

Recently, the interaction between humans and their environment is the one of important challenges in the world. Landuse/ cover change (LUCC) is a complex process that includes actors and factors at different social and spatial levels. The complexity and dynamics of urban systems make the applicable practice of urban modeling very difficult. With the increased computational power and the greater availability of spatial data, micro-simulation such as the agent based and cellular automata simulation methods, has been developed by geographers, planners, and scholars, and it has shown great potential for representing and simulating the complexity of the dynamic processes involved in urban growth and land use change. This paper presents Fuzzy Cellular Automata in Geospatial Information System and remote Sensing to simulated and predicted urban expansion pattern. These FCA-based dynamic spatial urban models provide an improved ability to forecast and assess future urban growth and to create planning scenarios, allowing us to explore the potential impacts of simulations that correspond to urban planning and management policies. A fuzzy inference guided cellular automata approach. Semantic or linguistic knowledge on Land use change is expressed as fuzzy rules, based on which fuzzy inference is applied to determine the urban development potential for each pixel. The model integrates an ABM (agent-based model) and FCA (Fuzzy Cellular Automata) to investigate a complex decision-making process and future urban dynamic processes. Based on this model rapid development and green land protection under the influences of the behaviors and decision modes of regional authority agents, real estate developer agents, resident agents and non- resident agents and their interactions have been applied to predict the future development patterns of the Erbil metropolitan region.

An equilibrium analysis of the land use structure in the Yunnan Province, China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

van Aken, H. M.; van Veldhoven, A. K.; Veth, C.; de Ruijter, W. P. M.; van Leeuwen, P. J.; Drijfhout, S. S.; Whittle, C. P.; Rouault, M.

2014-06-01

Global land use structure is changing rapidly due to unceasing population growth and accelerated urbanization, which leads to fierce competition between the rigid demand for built-up area and the protection of cultivated land, forest, and grassland. It has been a great challenge to realize the sustainable development of land resources. Based on a computable general equilibrium model of land use change with a social accounting matrix dataset, this study implemented an equilibrium analysis of the land use structure in the Yunnan Province during the period of 2008-2020 under three scenarios, the baseline scenario, low TFP (total factor productivity) scenario, and high TFP scenario. The results indicated that under all three scenarios, area of cultivated land declined significantly along with a remarkable expansion of built-up area, while areas of forest, grassland, and unused land increased slightly. The growth rate of TFP had first negative and then positive effects on the expansion of built-up area and decline of cultivated land as it increased. Moreover, the simulated changes of both cultivated land and built-up area were the biggest under the low TFP scenario, and far exceeded the limit in the Overall Plan for Land Utilization in the Yunnan Province in 2020. The scenario-based simulation results are of important reference value for policy-makers in making land use decisions, balancing the fierce competition between the protection of cultivated land and the increasing demand for built-up area, and guaranteeing food security, ecological security, and the sustainable development of land resources.

An equilibrium analysis of the land use structure in the Yunnan Province, China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Luo, Jiao; Zhan, Jinyan; Lin, Yingzhi; Zhao, Chunhong

2014-09-01

Global land use structure is changing rapidly due to unceasing population growth and accelerated urbanization, which leads to fierce competition between the rigid demand for built-up area and the protection of cultivated land, forest, and grassland. It has been a great challenge to realize the sustainable development of land resources. Based on a computable general equilibrium model of land use change with a social accounting matrix dataset, this study implemented an equilibrium analysis of the land use structure in the Yunnan Province during the period of 2008-2020 under three scenarios, the baseline scenario, low TFP (total factor productivity) scenario, and high TFP scenario. The results indicated that under all three scenarios, area of cultivated land declined significantly along with a remarkable expansion of built-up area, while areas of forest, grassland, and unused land increased slightly. The growth rate of TFP had first negative and then positive effects on the expansion of built-up area and decline of cultivated land as it increased. Moreover, the simulated changes of both cultivated land and built-up area were the biggest under the low TFP scenario, and far exceeded the limit in the Overall Plan for Land Utilization in the Yunnan Province in 2020. The scenario-based simulation results are of important reference value for policy-makers in making land use decisions, balancing the fierce competition between the protection of cultivated land and the increasing demand for built-up area, and guaranteeing food security, ecological security, and the sustainable development of land resources.

Projecting global land-use change and its effect on ecosystem service provision and biodiversity with simple models.

PubMed

Nelson, Erik; Sander, Heather; Hawthorne, Peter; Conte, Marc; Ennaanay, Driss; Wolny, Stacie; Manson, Steven; Polasky, Stephen

2010-12-15

As the global human population grows and its consumption patterns change, additional land will be needed for living space and agricultural production. A critical question facing global society is how to meet growing human demands for living space, food, fuel, and other materials while sustaining ecosystem services and biodiversity [1]. We spatially allocate two scenarios of 2000 to 2015 global areal change in urban land and cropland at the grid cell-level and measure the impact of this change on the provision of ecosystem services and biodiversity. The models and techniques used to spatially allocate land-use/land-cover (LULC) change and evaluate its impact on ecosystems are relatively simple and transparent [2]. The difference in the magnitude and pattern of cropland expansion across the two scenarios engenders different tradeoffs among crop production, provision of species habitat, and other important ecosystem services such as biomass carbon storage. For example, in one scenario, 5.2 grams of carbon stored in biomass is released for every additional calorie of crop produced across the globe; under the other scenario this tradeoff rate is 13.7. By comparing scenarios and their impacts we can begin to identify the global pattern of cropland and irrigation development that is significant enough to meet future food needs but has less of an impact on ecosystem service and habitat provision. Urban area and croplands will expand in the future to meet human needs for living space, livelihoods, and food. In order to jointly provide desired levels of urban land, food production, and ecosystem service and species habitat provision the global society will have to become much more strategic in its allocation of intensively managed land uses. Here we illustrate a method for quickly and transparently evaluating the performance of potential global futures.

Urban expansion brought stress to food security in China: Evidence from decreased cropland net primary productivity.

PubMed

He, Chunyang; Liu, Zhifeng; Xu, Min; Ma, Qun; Dou, Yinyin

2017-01-15

Cropland net primary productivity (CNPP) is a crucial indicator of grain productivity and food security. However, assessments of the impact of urban expansion on the CNPP in China have been inadequate owing to data limitations. In this paper, our objective was to assess the impact of urban expansion on the CNPP in China from 1992 to 2015 in a spatially explicit manner. We first obtained the CNPP before urban expansion between 1992 and 2015 in China using the Carnegie-Ames-Stanford Approach (CASA) model. We then assessed the impact of urban expansion on the CNPP from 1992 to 2015 at multiple scales (the whole country, agricultural zones, and urban expansion hotspots) by combining the CNPP before urban expansion with the urban land coverage time series extracted from multi-source remotely sensed data. We found that the total loss of the CNPP due to urban expansion from 1992 to 2015 was 13.77TgC, which accounts for 1.88% of the CNPP before urban expansion in China. This CNPP loss resulted in a 12.45-million-ton decrease in grain production in China, corresponding to a reduction in the mean annual grain self-sufficiency rate of 2%. Therefore, we concluded that rapid urban expansion from 1992 to 2015 caused stress to China's food security. We suggest that it is still vital for China to effectively protect cropland to improve the urbanization level to 60% by 2020. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Impacts of urbanisation on urban-rural water cycle: a China case study

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Mingna; Singh, Shailesh Kumar; Zhang, Jun-e.; Khu, Soon Thiam

2016-04-01

Urbanization, which essentially create more impervious surface, is an inevitable part of modern societal development throughout the world. It produces several changes in the natural hydrological cycle by adding several processes. A better understanding of the impacts of urbanization, will allow policy makers to balance development and environment sustainability needs. It also helps underdeveloped countries make strategic decisions in their development process. The objective of this study is to understand and quantify the sensitivity of the urban-rural water cycle to urbanisation. A coupled hydrological model, MODCYCLE, was set up to simulate the effect of changes in landuse on daily streamflow and groundwater and applied to the Tianjin municipality, a rapidly urbanising mega-city on the east coast of China. The model uses landuse, land cover, soil, meteorological and climatic data to represent important parameters in the catchment. The fraction of impervious surface was used as a surrogate to quantify the degree of landuse change. In this work, we analysed the water cycle process under current urbanization situation in Tianjin. A number of different future development scenarios on based on increasing urbanisation intensity is explored. The results show that the expansion of urban areas had a great influence on generation of flow process and on ET, and the surface runoff was most sensitive to urbanisation. The results of these scenarios-based study about future urbanisation on hydrological system will help planners and managers in taking proper decisions regarding sustainable development.

Modeling climate change, urbanization, and fire effects on Pinus palustris ecosystems of the southeastern U.S.

USGS Publications Warehouse

Costanza, Jennifer; Terando, Adam J.; McKerrow, Alexa; Collazo, Jaime A.

2015-01-01

Managing ecosystems for resilience and sustainability requires understanding how they will respond to future anthropogenic drivers such as climate change and urbanization. In fire-dependent ecosystems, predicting this response requires a focus on how these drivers will impact fire regimes. Here, we use scenarios of climate change, urbanization and management to simulate the future dynamics of the critically endangered and fire-dependent longleaf pine (Pinus palustris) ecosystem. We investigated how climate change and urbanization will affect the ecosystem, and whether the two conservation goals of a 135% increase in total longleaf area and a doubling of fire-maintained open-canopy habitat can be achieved in the face of these drivers. Our results show that while climatic warming had little effect on the wildfire regime, and thus on longleaf pine dynamics, urban growth led to an 8% reduction in annual wildfire area. The management scenarios we tested increase the ecosystem's total extent by up to 62% and result in expansion of open-canopy longleaf by as much as 216%, meeting one of the two conservation goals for the ecosystem. We find that both conservation goals for this ecosystem, which is climate-resilient but vulnerable to urbanization, are only attainable if a greater focus is placed on restoration of non-longleaf areas as opposed to maintaining existing longleaf stands. Our approach demonstrates the importance of accounting for multiple relevant anthropogenic threats in an ecosystem-specific context in order to facilitate more effective management actions.

Assessing hydrologic impacts of future Land Change scenarios in the San Pedro River (U.S./Mexico)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kepner, W. G.; Burns, S.; Sidman, G.; Levick, L.; Goodrich, D. C.; Guertin, P.; Yee, W.; Scianni, M.

2012-12-01

An approach was developed to characterize the hydrologic impacts of urban expansion through time for the San Pedro River, a watershed of immense international importance that straddles the U.S./Mexico border. Future urban growth is a key driving force altering local and regional hydrology and is represented by decadal changes in housing density maps from 2010 to 2100 derived from the Integrated Climate and Land-Use Scenarios (ICLUS) database. ICLUS developed future housing density maps by adapting the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) social, economic, and demographic storylines to the conterminous United States. To characterize the hydrologic impacts of future growth, the housing density maps were reclassified to National Land Cover Database 2006 land cover classes and used to parameterize the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) using the Automated Geospatial Watershed Assessment (AGWA) tool. The presentation will report 1) the methodology for adapting the ICLUS data for use in AGWA as an approach to evaluate basin-wide impacts of development on water-quantity and -quality, 2) initial results of the application of the methodology, and 3) discuss implications of the analysis.

How Did Urban Land Expand in China between 1992 and 2015? A Multi-Scale Landscape Analysis.

PubMed

Xu, Min; He, Chunyang; Liu, Zhifeng; Dou, Yinyin

2016-01-01

Effective and timely quantification of the spatiotemporal pattern of urban expansion in China is important for the assessment of its environmental effects. However, the dynamics of the most recent urban expansions in China since 2012 have not yet been adequately explained due to a lack of current information. In this paper, our objective was to quantify spatiotemporal patterns of urban expansion in China between 1992 and 2015. First, we extracted information on urban expansion in China between 1992 and 2015 by integrating nighttime light data, vegetation index data, and land surface temperature data. Then we analyzed the spatiotemporal patterns of urban expansion at the national and regional scales, as well as at that of urban agglomerations. We found that China experienced a rapid and large-scale process of urban expansion between 1992 and 2015, with urban land increasing from 1.22 × 104 km2 to 7.29 × 104 km2, increasing in size nearly fivefold and with an average annual growth rate of 8.10%, almost 2.5 times as rapid as the global average. We also found that urban land in China expanded mainly by occupying 3.31 × 104 km2 of cropland, which comprised 54.67% of the total area of expanded urban land. Among the three modes of growth-infilling, edge expansion, and leapfrog-edge expansion was the main cause of cropland loss. Cropland loss resulting from edge expansion of urban land totalled 2.51 × 104 km2, accounting for over 75% of total cropland loss. We suggest that effective future management with respect to edge expansion of urban land is needed to protect cropland in China.

How Did Urban Land Expand in China between 1992 and 2015? A Multi-Scale Landscape Analysis

PubMed Central

Xu, Min; He, Chunyang; Liu, Zhifeng; Dou, Yinyin

2016-01-01

Effective and timely quantification of the spatiotemporal pattern of urban expansion in China is important for the assessment of its environmental effects. However, the dynamics of the most recent urban expansions in China since 2012 have not yet been adequately explained due to a lack of current information. In this paper, our objective was to quantify spatiotemporal patterns of urban expansion in China between 1992 and 2015. First, we extracted information on urban expansion in China between 1992 and 2015 by integrating nighttime light data, vegetation index data, and land surface temperature data. Then we analyzed the spatiotemporal patterns of urban expansion at the national and regional scales, as well as at that of urban agglomerations. We found that China experienced a rapid and large-scale process of urban expansion between 1992 and 2015, with urban land increasing from 1.22 × 104 km2 to 7.29 × 104 km2, increasing in size nearly fivefold and with an average annual growth rate of 8.10%, almost 2.5 times as rapid as the global average. We also found that urban land in China expanded mainly by occupying 3.31 × 104 km2 of cropland, which comprised 54.67% of the total area of expanded urban land. Among the three modes of growth—infilling, edge expansion, and leapfrog—edge expansion was the main cause of cropland loss. Cropland loss resulting from edge expansion of urban land totalled 2.51 × 104 km2, accounting for over 75% of total cropland loss. We suggest that effective future management with respect to edge expansion of urban land is needed to protect cropland in China. PMID:27144589

Estimating the Impact of Urban Expansion on Land Subsidence Using Time Series of DMSP Night-Time Light Satellite Imagery

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jiao, S.; Yu, J.; Wang, Y.; Zhu, L.; Zhou, Q.

2018-04-01

In recent decades, urbanization has resulted a massive increase in the amount of infrastructure especially large buildings in large cities worldwide. There has been a noticeable expansion of entire cities both horizontally and vertically. One of the common consequences of urban expansion is the increase of ground loads, which may trigger land subsidence and can be a potential threat of public safety. Monitoring trends of urban expansion and land subsidence using remote sensing technology is needed to ensure safety along with urban planning and development. The Defense Meteorological Satellite Program Operational Line scan System (DMSP/OLS) Night-Time Light (NTL) images have been used to study urbanization at a regional scale, proving the capability of recognizing urban expansion patterns. In the current study, a normalized illuminated urban area dome volume (IUADV) based on inter-calibrated DMSP/OLS NTL images is shown as a practical approach for estimating urban expansion of Beijing at a single period in time and over subsequent years. To estimate the impact of urban expansion on land subsidence, IUADV was correlated with land subsidence rates obtained using the Stanford Method for Persistent Scatterers (StaMPS) approach within the Persistent Scatterers InSAR (PSInSAR) methodology. Moderate correlations are observed between the urban expansion based on the DMSP/OLS NTL images and land subsidence. The correlation coefficients between the urban expansion of each year and land subsidence tends to gradually decrease over time (Coefficient of determination R = 0.80 - 0.64 from year 2005 to year 2010), while the urban expansion of two sequential years exhibit an opposite trend (R = 0.29 - 0.57 from year 2005 to year 2010) except for the two sequential years between 2007 and 2008 (R = 0.14).

Modeling Urban Growth Spatial Dynamics: Case studies of Addis Ababa and Dar es Salaam

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Buchta, Katja; Abo El Wafa, Hany; Printz, Andreas; Pauleit, Stephan

2013-04-01

Rapid urbanization, and consequently, the dramatic spatial expansion of mostly informal urban areas increases the vulnerability of African cities to the effects of climate change such as sea level rise, more frequent flooding, droughts and heat waves. The EU FP 7 funded project CLUVA (Climate Change and Urban Vulnerability in Africa, www.cluva.eu) aims to develop strategies for minimizing the risks of natural hazards caused by climate change and to improve the coping capacity of African cities. Green infrastructure may play a particular role in climate change adaptation by providing ecosystem services for flood protection, stormwater retention, heat island moderation and provision of food and fuel wood. In this context, a major challenge is to gain a better understanding of the spatial and temporal dynamics of the cities and how these impact on green infrastructure and hence their vulnerability. Urban growth scenarios for two African cities, namely Addis Ababa, Ethiopia and Dar es Salaam, Tanzania, were developed based on a characterization of their urban morphology. A population growth driven - GIS based - disaggregation modeling approach was applied. Major impact factors influencing the urban dynamics were identified both from literature and interviews with local experts. Location based factors including proximity to road infrastructure and accessibility, and environmental factors including slope, surface and flood risk areas showed a particular impact on urban growth patterns. In Addis Ababa and Dar es Salaam, population density scenarios were modeled comparing two housing development strategies. Results showed that a densification scenario significantly decreases the loss of agricultural and green areas such as forests, bushland and sports grounds. In Dar es Salaam, the scenario of planned new settlements with a population density of max. 350 persons per hectare would lead until 2025 to a loss of agricultural land (-10.1%) and green areas (-6.6%). On the other hand, 12.4% of agricultural land and 16.1% of green areas would be lost in the low density development scenario of unplanned settlements of max. 150 persons per hectare. Relocating the population living in flood prone areas in the case of Addis Ababa and keeping those areas free from further settlements in the case of Dar es Salaam would result in even lower losses (agricultural land: -10.0%, green areas: -5.6%) as some flood prone areas overlap with agricultural/ green areas. The scenario models introduced in this research can be used by planners as tools to understand and manage the different outcomes of distinctive urban development strategies on growth patterns and how they interact with different climate change drivers such as loss of green infrastructure and effects such as frequent flooding hazards. Due to the relative simplicity of their structure and the single modeling environment, the models can be transferred to similar cities with minor modifications accommodating the different conditions of each city. Already, in Addis Ababa the results of the model will be used in the current revision of the Master plan of the city. Keywords: GIS, modeling, Urban Dynamics, Dar es Salaam, Addis Ababa, urbanization

Future urban land expansion and implications for global croplands.

PubMed

Bren d'Amour, Christopher; Reitsma, Femke; Baiocchi, Giovanni; Barthel, Stephan; Güneralp, Burak; Erb, Karl-Heinz; Haberl, Helmut; Creutzig, Felix; Seto, Karen C

2017-08-22

Urban expansion often occurs on croplands. However, there is little scientific understanding of how global patterns of future urban expansion will affect the world's cultivated areas. Here, we combine spatially explicit projections of urban expansion with datasets on global croplands and crop yields. Our results show that urban expansion will result in a 1.8-2.4% loss of global croplands by 2030, with substantial regional disparities. About 80% of global cropland loss from urban expansion will take place in Asia and Africa. In both Asia and Africa, much of the cropland that will be lost is more than twice as productive as national averages. Asia will experience the highest absolute loss in cropland, whereas African countries will experience the highest percentage loss of cropland. Globally, the croplands that are likely to be lost were responsible for 3-4% of worldwide crop production in 2000. Urban expansion is expected to take place on cropland that is 1.77 times more productive than the global average. The loss of cropland is likely to be accompanied by other sustainability risks and threatens livelihoods, with diverging characteristics for different megaurban regions. Governance of urban area expansion thus emerges as a key area for securing livelihoods in the agrarian economies of the Global South.

Future urban land expansion and implications for global croplands

PubMed Central

Bren d’Amour, Christopher; Reitsma, Femke; Baiocchi, Giovanni; Barthel, Stephan; Güneralp, Burak; Erb, Karl-Heinz; Haberl, Helmut; Seto, Karen C.

2017-01-01

Urban expansion often occurs on croplands. However, there is little scientific understanding of how global patterns of future urban expansion will affect the world’s cultivated areas. Here, we combine spatially explicit projections of urban expansion with datasets on global croplands and crop yields. Our results show that urban expansion will result in a 1.8–2.4% loss of global croplands by 2030, with substantial regional disparities. About 80% of global cropland loss from urban expansion will take place in Asia and Africa. In both Asia and Africa, much of the cropland that will be lost is more than twice as productive as national averages. Asia will experience the highest absolute loss in cropland, whereas African countries will experience the highest percentage loss of cropland. Globally, the croplands that are likely to be lost were responsible for 3–4% of worldwide crop production in 2000. Urban expansion is expected to take place on cropland that is 1.77 times more productive than the global average. The loss of cropland is likely to be accompanied by other sustainability risks and threatens livelihoods, with diverging characteristics for different megaurban regions. Governance of urban area expansion thus emerges as a key area for securing livelihoods in the agrarian economies of the Global South. PMID:28028219

Mediterranean water resources in a global change scenario

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

García-Ruiz, José M.; López-Moreno, J. Ignacio; Vicente-Serrano, Sergio M.; Lasanta–Martínez, Teodoro; Beguería, Santiago

2011-04-01

Mediterranean areas of both southern Europe and North Africa are subject to dramatic changes that will affect the sustainability, quantity, quality, and management of water resources. Most climate models forecast an increase in temperature and a decrease in precipitation at the end of the 21st century. This will enhance stress on natural forests and shrubs, and will result in more water consumption, evapotranspiration, and probably interception, which will affect the surface water balance and the partitioning of precipitation between evapotranspiration, runoff, and groundwater flow. As a consequence, soil water content will decline, saturation conditions will be increasingly rare and restricted to periods in winter and spring, and snow accumulation and melting will change, especially in the mid-mountain areas. Future land management will be characterized by forest and shrub expansion in most Mediterranean mountain areas, as a consequence of farmland and grazing abandonment, with increasing human pressure localized only in some places (ski resort and urbanized of valley floors). In the lowlands, particularly in the coastal fringe, increasing water demand will occur as a consequence of expansion of irrigated lands, as well as the growth of urban and industrial areas, and tourist resorts. Future scenarios for water resources in the Mediterranean region suggest (1) a progressive decline in the average streamflow (already observed in many rivers since the 1980s), including a decline in the frequency and magnitude of the most frequent floods due to the expansion of forests; (2) changes in important river regime characteristics, including an earlier decline in high flows from snowmelt in spring, an intensification of low flows in summer, and more irregular discharges in winter; (3) changes in reservoir inputs and management, including lower available discharges from dams to meet the water demand from irrigated and urban areas. Most reservoirs in mountain areas will be subject to increasing water resource uncertainty, because of the reduced influence of snow accumulation and snowmelt processes. Besides, reservoir capacity is naturally reduced due to increasing sedimentation and, in some cases, is also decreased to improve the safety control of floods, leading to a reduction in efficiency for agriculture. And (4) hydrological and population changes in coastal areas, particularly in the delta zones, affected by water depletion, groundwater reduction and saline water intrusion. These scenarios enhance the necessity of improving water management, water prizing and water recycling policies, in order to ensure water supply and to reduce tensions among regions and countries.

Impact of Operating Rules on Planning Capacity Expansion of Urban Water Supply Systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

de Neufville, R.; Galelli, S.; Tian, X.

2017-12-01

This study addresses the impact of operating rules on capacity planning of urban water supply systems. The continuous growth of metropolitan areas represents a major challenge for water utilities, which often rely on industrial water supply (e.g., desalination, reclaimed water) to complement natural resources (e.g., reservoirs). These additional sources increase the reliability of supply, equipping operators with additional means to hedge against droughts. How do their rules for using industrial water supply impact the performance of water supply system? How might it affect long-term plans for capacity expansion? Possibly significantly, as demonstrated by the analysis of the operations and planning of a water supply system inspired by Singapore. Our analysis explores the system dynamics under multiple inflow and management scenarios to understand the extent to which alternative operating rules for the use of industrial water supply affect system performance. Results first show that these operating rules can have significant impact on the variability in system performance (e.g., reliability, energy use) comparable to that of hydro-climatological conditions. Further analyses of several capacity expansion exercises—based on our original hydrological and management scenarios—show that operating rules significantly affect the timing and magnitude of critical decisions, such as the construction of new desalination plants. These results have two implications: Capacity expansion analysis should consider the effect of a priori uncertainty about operating rules; and operators should consider how their flexibility in operating rules can affect their perceived need for capacity.

A spatially distributed model for assessment of the effects of changing land use and climate on urban stream quality: Development of a Spatially Distributed Urban Water Quality Model

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Sun, Ning; Yearsley, John; Baptiste, Marisa

While the effects of land use change in urban areas have been widely examined, the combined effects of climate and land use change on the quality of urban and urbanizing streams have received much less attention. We describe a modeling framework that is applicable to the evaluation of potential changes in urban water quality and associated hydrologic changes in response to ongoing climate and landscape alteration. The grid-based spatially distributed model, DHSVM-WQ, is an outgrowth of the Distributed Hydrology-Soil-Vegetation Model (DHSVM) that incorporates modules for assessing hydrology and water quality in urbanized watersheds at a high spatial and temporal resolution.more » DHSVM-WQ simulates surface runoff quality and in-stream processes that control the transport of nonpoint-source (NPS) pollutants into urban streams. We configure DHSVM-WQ for three partially urbanized catchments in the Puget Sound region to evaluate the water quality responses to current conditions and projected changes in climate and/or land use over the next century. Here we focus on total suspended solids (TSS) and total phosphorus (TP) from nonpoint sources (runoff), as well as stream temperature. The projection of future land use is characterized by a combination of densification in existing urban or partially urban areas, and expansion of the urban footprint. The climate change scenarios consist of individual and concurrent changes in temperature and precipitation. Future precipitation is projected to increase in winter and decrease in summer, while future temperature is projected to increase throughout the year. Our results show that urbanization has a much greater effect than climate change on both the magnitude and seasonal variability of streamflow, TSS and TP loads largely due to substantially increased streamflow, and particularly winter flow peaks. Water temperature is more sensitive to climate warming scenarios than to urbanization and precipitation changes. Future urbanization and climate change together are predicted to significantly increase annual mean streamflow (up to 55%), water temperature (up to 1.9 ºC), TSS load (up to 182%), and TP load (up to 74%).« less

Modeling Global Urbanization Supported by Nighttime Light Remote Sensing

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhou, Y.

2015-12-01

Urbanization, a major driver of global change, profoundly impacts our physical and social world, for example, altering carbon cycling and climate. Understanding these consequences for better scientific insights and effective decision-making unarguably requires accurate information on urban extent and its spatial distributions. In this study, we developed a cluster-based method to estimate the optimal thresholds and map urban extents from the nighttime light remote sensing data, extended this method to the global domain by developing a computational method (parameterization) to estimate the key parameters in the cluster-based method, and built a consistent 20-year global urban map series to evaluate the time-reactive nature of global urbanization (e.g. 2000 in Fig. 1). Supported by urban maps derived from nightlights remote sensing data and socio-economic drivers, we developed an integrated modeling framework to project future urban expansion by integrating a top-down macro-scale statistical model with a bottom-up urban growth model. With the models calibrated and validated using historical data, we explored urban growth at the grid level (1-km) over the next two decades under a number of socio-economic scenarios. The derived spatiotemporal information of historical and potential future urbanization will be of great value with practical implications for developing adaptation and risk management measures for urban infrastructure, transportation, energy, and water systems when considered together with other factors such as climate variability and change, and high impact weather events.

Futures of global urban expansion: uncertainties and implications for biodiversity conservation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Güneralp, B.; Seto, K. C.

2013-03-01

Urbanization will place significant pressures on biodiversity across the world. However, there are large uncertainties in the amount and location of future urbanization, particularly urban land expansion. Here, we present a global analysis of urban extent circa 2000 and probabilistic forecasts of urban expansion for 2030 near protected areas and in biodiversity hotspots. We estimate that the amount of urban land within 50 km of all protected area boundaries will increase from 450 000 km2 circa 2000 to 1440 000 ± 65 000 km2 in 2030. Our analysis shows that protected areas around the world will experience significant increases in urban land within 50 km of their boundaries. China will experience the largest increase in urban land near protected areas with 304 000 ± 33 000 km2 of new urban land to be developed within 50 km of protected area boundaries. The largest urban expansion in biodiversity hotspots, over 100 000 ± 25 000 km2, is forecasted to occur in South America. Uncertainties in the forecasts of the amount and location of urban land expansion reflect uncertainties in their underlying drivers including urban population and economic growth. The forecasts point to the need to reconcile urban development and biodiversity conservation strategies.

Comparison of the impacts of urban development and climate change on exposing European cities to pluvial flooding

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Skougaard Kaspersen, Per; Høegh Ravn, Nanna; Arnbjerg-Nielsen, Karsten; Madsen, Henrik; Drews, Martin

2017-08-01

The economic and human consequences of extreme precipitation and the related flooding of urban areas have increased rapidly over the past decades. Some of the key factors that affect the risks to urban areas include climate change, the densification of assets within cities and the general expansion of urban areas. In this paper, we examine and compare quantitatively the impact of climate change and recent urban development patterns on the exposure of four European cities to pluvial flooding. In particular, we investigate the degree to which pluvial floods of varying severity and in different geographical locations are influenced to the same extent by changes in urban land cover and climate change. We have selected the European cities of Odense, Vienna, Strasbourg and Nice for analyses to represent different climatic conditions, trends in urban development and topographical characteristics. We develop and apply a combined remote-sensing and flood-modelling approach to simulate the extent of pluvial flooding for a range of extreme precipitation events for historical (1984) and present-day (2014) urban land cover and for two climate-change scenarios (i.e. representative concentration pathways, RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5). Changes in urban land cover are estimated using Landsat satellite imagery for the period 1984-2014. We combine the remote-sensing analyses with regionally downscaled estimates of precipitation extremes of current and expected future climate to enable 2-D overland flow simulations and flood-hazard assessments. The individual and combined impacts of urban development and climate change are quantified by examining the variations in flooding between the different simulations along with the corresponding uncertainties. In addition, two different assumptions are examined with regards to the development of the capacity of the urban drainage system in response to urban development and climate change. In the stationary approach, the capacity resembles present-day design, while it is updated in the evolutionary approach to correspond to changes in imperviousness and precipitation intensities due to urban development and climate change respectively. For all four cities, we find an increase in flood exposure corresponding to an observed absolute growth in impervious surfaces of 7-12 % during the past 30 years of urban development. Similarly, we find that climate change increases exposure to pluvial flooding under both the RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 scenarios. The relative importance of urban development and climate change on flood exposure varies considerably between the cities. For Odense, the impact of urban development is comparable to that of climate change under an RCP 8.5 scenario (2081-2100), while for Vienna and Strasbourg it is comparable to the impacts of an RCP 4.5 scenario. For Nice, climate change dominates urban development as the primary driver of changes in exposure to flooding. The variation between geographical locations is caused by differences in soil infiltration properties, historical trends in urban development and the projected regional impacts of climate change on extreme precipitation. Developing the capacity of the urban drainage system in relation to urban development is found to be an effective adaptation measure as it fully compensates for the increase in run-off caused by additional sealed surfaces. On the other hand, updating the drainage system according to changes in precipitation intensities caused by climate change only marginally reduces flooding for the most extreme events.

A new framework for modeling urban land expansion in peri-urban area by combining multi-source datasets and data assimilation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, Z.; Xiao, R.; Li, X.

2015-12-01

Peri-urban area is a new type region under the impacts of both rural Industrialization and the radiation of metropolitan during rapid urbanization. Due to its complex natural and social characteristics and unique development patterns, many problems such as environmental pollution and land use waste emerged, which became an urgent issue to be addressed. Study area in this paper covers three typical peri-urban districts (Pudong, Fengxian and Jinshan), which around the Shanghai inner city. By coupling cellular automata and multi-agent system model as the basic tools, this research focus on modelling the urban land expansion and driving mechanism in peri-urban area. The big data is aslo combined with the Bayesian maximum entropy method (BME) for spatiotemporal prediction of multi-source data, which expand the dataset of urban expansion models. Data assimilation method is used to optimize the parameters of the coupling model and minimize the uncertainty of observations, improving the precision of future simulation in peri-urban area. By setting quantitative parameters, the coupling model can effectively improve the simulation of the process of urban land expansion under different policies and management schemes, in order to provide scientificimplications for new urbanization strategy. In this research, we precise the urban land expansion simulation and prediction for peri-urban area, expand the scopes and selections of data acquisition measurements and methods, develop the new applications of the data assimilation method in geographical science, provide a new idea for understanding the inherent rules of urban land expansion, and give theoretical and practical support for the peri-urban area in urban planning and decision making.

Influences of Urban Expansion on Cultivated Lands in China Since 1970S

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liu, F.; Zhang, Z.; Zhao, X.; Yu, S.; Wang, X.; Zuo, L.

2018-04-01

Urban expansion has far-reaching influences on cultivated lands, and has a serious effect on grain output and safety. However, relatively little attention has been paid to monitor cultivated land losses through urban expansion over a long timeframe and multi-frequency, especially its differences on national scale systematically. In this work, the characteristics of Chinese cultivated land dynamics were described using annual occupied area per city, contribution rate of cultivated lands to urban expansion and the classification method of basic trend of cultivated land losses. Results indicate that: (1) in the past four decades, large amount of cultivated lands have been occupied during the urban expansion process, and have become the first land source for Chinese urban expansion. (2) Cultivated land loss among municipalities, provincial capitals and other cities was obviously different. The higher of cities' administrative level was, the more obvious of cultivated land loss in these cities appeared, and the earlier of acceleration loss stage of cultivated lands occurred. (3) Cultivated land loss in five population-size cities was unbalanced, representing obviously different loss process and contribution on urban expansion. The bigger of cities' population size was, the more obvious of cultivated land loss in these cities appeared, and the earlier of acceleration loss stage of cultivated lands occurred. (4) Cultivated land losses during urban expansion process were imbalanced in China, and were classified into seven trends. (5) Chinese cultivated land protection has been carried out from the awakening stage to the deep implementation stage.

Future land-use scenarios and the loss of wildlife habitats in the southeastern United States.

PubMed

Martinuzzi, Sebastián; Withey, John C; Pidgeon, Anna M; Plantinga, Andrew J; McKerrow, Alexa J; Williams, Steven G; Helmers, David P; Radeloff, Volker C

2015-01-01

Land-use change is a major cause of wildlife habitat loss. Understanding how changes in land-use policies and economic factors can impact future trends in land use and wildlife habitat loss is therefore critical for conservation efforts. Our goal here was to evaluate the consequences of future land-use changes under different conservation policies and crop market conditions on habitat loss for wildlife species in the southeastern United States. We predicted the rates of habitat loss for 336 terrestrial vertebrate species by 2051. We focused on habitat loss due to the expansion of urban, crop, and pasture. Future land-use changes following business-as-usual conditions resulted in relatively low rates of wildlife habitat loss across the entire Southeast, but some ecoregions and species groups experienced much higher habitat loss than others. Increased crop commodity prices exacerbated wildlife habitat loss in most ecoregions, while the implementation of conservation policies (reduced urban sprawl, and payments for land conservation) reduced the projected habitat loss in some regions, to a certain degree. Overall, urban and crop expansion were the main drivers of habitat loss. Reptiles and wildlife species associated with open vegetation (grasslands, open woodlands) were the species groups most vulnerable to future land-use change. Effective conservation of wildlife habitat in the Southeast should give special consideration to future land-use changes, regional variations, and the forces that could shape land-use decisions.

Future land-use scenarios and the loss of wildlife habitats in the southeastern United States

USGS Publications Warehouse

Martinuzzi, Sebastián; Withey, John C.; Pidgeon, Anna M.; Plantinga, Andrew; McKerrow, Alexa; Williams, Steven G.; Helmers, David P.; Radeloff, Volker C.

2015-01-01

Land-use change is a major cause of wildlife habitat loss. Understanding how changes in land-use policies and economic factors can impact future trends in land use and wildlife habitat loss is therefore critical for conservation efforts. Our goal here was to evaluate the consequences of future land-use changes under different conservation policies and crop market conditions on habitat loss for wildlife species in the southeastern United States. We predicted the rates of habitat loss for 336 terrestrial vertebrate species by 2051. We focused on habitat loss due to the expansion of urban, crop, and pasture. Future land-use changes following business-as-usual conditions resulted in relatively low rates of wildlife habitat loss across the entire Southeast, but some ecoregions and species groups experienced much higher habitat loss than others. Increased crop commodity prices exacerbated wildlife habitat loss in most ecoregions, while the implementation of conservation policies (reduced urban sprawl, and payments for land conservation) reduced the projected habitat loss in some regions, to a certain degree. Overall, urban and crop expansion were the main drivers of habitat loss. Reptiles and wildlife species associated with open vegetation (grasslands, open woodlands) were the species groups most vulnerable to future land-use change. Effective conservation of wildlife habitat in the Southeast should give special consideration to future land-use changes, regional variations, and the forces that could shape land-use decisions.

Evaluating the Hydrologic Performance of Low Impact Development Scenarios in a Micro Urban Catchment.

PubMed

Li, Chunlin; Liu, Miao; Hu, Yuanman; Han, Rongqing; Shi, Tuo; Qu, Xiuqi; Wu, Yilin

2018-02-05

As urbanization progresses, increasingly impervious surfaces have changed the hydrological processes in cities and resulted in a major challenge for urban stormwater control. This study uses the urban stormwater model to evaluate the performance and costs of low impact development (LID) scenarios in a micro urban catchment. Rainfall-runoff data of three rainfall events were used for model calibration and validation. The pre-developed (PreDev) scenario, post-developed (PostDev) scenario, and three LID scenarios were used to evaluate the hydrologic performance of LID measures. Using reduction in annual runoff as the goal, the best solutions for each LID scenario were selected using cost-effectiveness curves. The simulation results indicated that the three designed LID scenarios could effectively reduce annual runoff volumes and pollutant loads compared with the PostDev scenario. The most effective scenario (MaxPerf) reduced annual runoff by 53.4%, followed by the sponge city (SpoPerf, 51.5%) and economy scenarios (EcoPerf, 43.1%). The runoff control efficiency of the MaxPerf and SpoPerf scenarios increased by 23.9% and 19.5%, respectively, when compared with the EcoPerf scenario; however, the costs increased by 104% and 83.6%. The reduction rates of four pollutants (TSS, TN, TP, and COD) under the MaxPerf scenario were 59.8-61.1%, followed by SpoPerf (53.9-58.3%) and EcoPerf (42.3-45.4%), and the costs of the three scenarios were 3.74, 3.47, and 1.83 million yuan, respectively. These results can provide guidance to urban stormwater managers in future urban planning to improve urban water security.

Evaluating the Hydrologic Performance of Low Impact Development Scenarios in a Micro Urban Catchment

PubMed Central

Li, Chunlin; Liu, Miao; Hu, Yuanman; Han, Rongqing; Shi, Tuo; Qu, Xiuqi; Wu, Yilin

2018-01-01

As urbanization progresses, increasingly impervious surfaces have changed the hydrological processes in cities and resulted in a major challenge for urban stormwater control. This study uses the urban stormwater model to evaluate the performance and costs of low impact development (LID) scenarios in a micro urban catchment. Rainfall-runoff data of three rainfall events were used for model calibration and validation. The pre-developed (PreDev) scenario, post-developed (PostDev) scenario, and three LID scenarios were used to evaluate the hydrologic performance of LID measures. Using reduction in annual runoff as the goal, the best solutions for each LID scenario were selected using cost-effectiveness curves. The simulation results indicated that the three designed LID scenarios could effectively reduce annual runoff volumes and pollutant loads compared with the PostDev scenario. The most effective scenario (MaxPerf) reduced annual runoff by 53.4%, followed by the sponge city (SpoPerf, 51.5%) and economy scenarios (EcoPerf, 43.1%). The runoff control efficiency of the MaxPerf and SpoPerf scenarios increased by 23.9% and 19.5%, respectively, when compared with the EcoPerf scenario; however, the costs increased by 104% and 83.6%. The reduction rates of four pollutants (TSS, TN, TP, and COD) under the MaxPerf scenario were 59.8–61.1%, followed by SpoPerf (53.9–58.3%) and EcoPerf (42.3–45.4%), and the costs of the three scenarios were 3.74, 3.47 and 1.83 million yuan, respectively. These results can provide guidance to urban stormwater managers in future urban planning to improve urban water security. PMID:29401747

Balancing urban growth and ecological conservation: A challenge for planning and governance in China.

PubMed

Güneralp, Burak; Perlstein, Andrew S; Seto, Karen C

2015-10-01

China has high biodiversity and is rapidly urbanizing. However, there is limited understanding of how urban expansion in the country is likely to affect its habitats and biodiversity. In this study, we examine urban expansion patterns and their likely impacts on biodiversity in China by 2030. Our analysis shows that most provinces are expected to experience urban expansion either near their protected areas or in biodiversity hotspots. In a few provinces such as Guangdong in the south, urban expansion is likely to impinge on both protected areas and biodiversity hotspots. We show that policies that could facilitate the integration of natural resource protection into urban planning exist on paper, but the prevailing incentives and institutional arrangements between the central and local governments prevent this kind of integration. Removing these obstacles will be necessary in order to safeguard the country's rich biodiversity in light of the scale of urbanization underway.

Projecting the land cover change and its environmental impacts in the Cedar River Basin in the Midwestern United States

USGS Publications Warehouse

Wu, Yiping; Liu, Shuguang; Sohl, Terry L.; Young, Claudia

2013-01-01

The physical surface of the Earth is in constant change due to climate forcing and human activities. In the Midwestern United States, urban area, farmland, and dedicated energy crop (e.g., switchgrass) cultivation are predicted to expand in the coming decades, which will lead to changes in hydrological processes. This study is designed to (1) project the land use and land cover (LULC) by mid-century using the FORecasting SCEnarios of future land-use (FORE-SCE) model under the A1B greenhouse gas emission scenario (future condition) and (2) assess its potential impacts on the water cycle and water quality against the 2001 baseline condition in the Cedar River Basin using the physically based soil and water assessment tool (SWAT). We compared the baseline LULC (National Land Cover data 2001) and 2050 projection, indicating substantial expansions of urban area and pastureland (including the cultivation of bioenergy crops) and a decrease in rangeland. We then used the above two LULC maps as the input data to drive the SWAT model, keeping other input data (e.g., climate) unchanged to isolate the LULC change impacts. The modeling results indicate that quick-response surface runoff would increase significantly (about 10.5%) due to the projected urban expansion (i.e., increase in impervious areas), and the baseflow would decrease substantially (about 7.3%) because of the reduced infiltration. Although the net effect may cause an increase in water yield, the increased variability may impede its use for public supply. Additionally, the cultivation of bioenergy crops such as switchgrass in the newly added pasture lands may further reduce the soil water content and lead to an increase in nitrogen loading (about 2.5% increase) due to intensified fertilizer application. These study results will be informative to decision makers for sustainable water resource management when facing LULC change and an increasing demand for biofuel production in this area.

Monitoring urban expansion and its effects on land use and land cover changes in Guangzhou city, China.

PubMed

Wu, Yanyan; Li, Shuyuan; Yu, Shixiao

2016-01-01

There are widespread concerns about urban sprawl in China. In response, modeling and assessing urban expansion and subsequent land use and land cover (LULC) changes have become important approaches to support decisions about appropriate development and land resource use. Guangzhou, a major metropolitan city in South China, has experienced rapid urbanization and great economic growth in the past few decades. This study applied a series of Landsat images to assess the urban expansion and subsequent LULC changes over 35 years, from 1979 to 2013. From start to end, urban expansion increased by 1512.24 km(2) with an annual growth rate of 11.25 %. There were four stages of urban growth: low rates from 1979 to 1990, increased rates from 1990 to 2001, high rates from 2001 to 2009, and steady increased rates from 2009 to 2013. There were also three different urban growth types in these different stages: edge-expansion growth, infilling growth, and spontaneous growth. Other land cover, such as cropland, forest, and mosaics of cropland and natural vegetation, were severely impacted as a result. To analyze these changes, we used landscape metrics to characterize the changes in the spatial patterns across the Guangzhou landscape and the impacts of urban growth on other types of land cover. The significant changes in LULC and urban expansion were highly correlated with economic development, population growth, technical progress, policy elements, and other similar indexes.

Quantifying urban growth patterns in Hanoi using landscape expansion modes and time series spatial metrics.

PubMed

Nong, Duong H; Lepczyk, Christopher A; Miura, Tomoaki; Fox, Jefferson M

2018-01-01

Urbanization has been driven by various social, economic, and political factors around the world for centuries. Because urbanization continues unabated in many places, it is crucial to understand patterns of urbanization and their potential ecological and environmental impacts. Given this need, the objectives of our study were to quantify urban growth rates, growth modes, and resultant changes in the landscape pattern of urbanization in Hanoi, Vietnam from 1993 to 2010 and to evaluate the extent to which the process of urban growth in Hanoi conformed to the diffusion-coalescence theory. We analyzed the spatiotemporal patterns and dynamics of the built-up land in Hanoi using landscape expansion modes, spatial metrics, and a gradient approach. Urbanization was most pronounced in the periods of 2001-2006 and 2006-2010 at a distance of 10 to 35 km around the urban center. Over the 17 year period urban expansion in Hanoi was dominated by infilling and edge expansion growth modes. Our findings support the diffusion-coalescence theory of urbanization. The shift of the urban growth areas over time and the dynamic nature of the spatial metrics revealed important information about our understanding of the urban growth process and cycle. Furthermore, our findings can be used to evaluate urban planning policies and aid in urbanization issues in rapidly urbanizing countries.

Global forecasts of urban expansion to 2030 and direct impacts on biodiversity and carbon pools.

PubMed

Seto, Karen C; Güneralp, Burak; Hutyra, Lucy R

2012-10-02

Urban land-cover change threatens biodiversity and affects ecosystem productivity through loss of habitat, biomass, and carbon storage. However, despite projections that world urban populations will increase to nearly 5 billion by 2030, little is known about future locations, magnitudes, and rates of urban expansion. Here we develop spatially explicit probabilistic forecasts of global urban land-cover change and explore the direct impacts on biodiversity hotspots and tropical carbon biomass. If current trends in population density continue and all areas with high probabilities of urban expansion undergo change, then by 2030, urban land cover will increase by 1.2 million km(2), nearly tripling the global urban land area circa 2000. This increase would result in considerable loss of habitats in key biodiversity hotspots, with the highest rates of forecasted urban growth to take place in regions that were relatively undisturbed by urban development in 2000: the Eastern Afromontane, the Guinean Forests of West Africa, and the Western Ghats and Sri Lanka hotspots. Within the pan-tropics, loss in vegetation biomass from areas with high probability of urban expansion is estimated to be 1.38 PgC (0.05 PgC yr(-1)), equal to ∼5% of emissions from tropical deforestation and land-use change. Although urbanization is often considered a local issue, the aggregate global impacts of projected urban expansion will require significant policy changes to affect future growth trajectories to minimize global biodiversity and vegetation carbon losses.

Global forecasts of urban expansion to 2030 and direct impacts on biodiversity and carbon pools

PubMed Central

Seto, Karen C.; Güneralp, Burak; Hutyra, Lucy R.

2012-01-01

Urban land-cover change threatens biodiversity and affects ecosystem productivity through loss of habitat, biomass, and carbon storage. However, despite projections that world urban populations will increase to nearly 5 billion by 2030, little is known about future locations, magnitudes, and rates of urban expansion. Here we develop spatially explicit probabilistic forecasts of global urban land-cover change and explore the direct impacts on biodiversity hotspots and tropical carbon biomass. If current trends in population density continue and all areas with high probabilities of urban expansion undergo change, then by 2030, urban land cover will increase by 1.2 million km2, nearly tripling the global urban land area circa 2000. This increase would result in considerable loss of habitats in key biodiversity hotspots, with the highest rates of forecasted urban growth to take place in regions that were relatively undisturbed by urban development in 2000: the Eastern Afromontane, the Guinean Forests of West Africa, and the Western Ghats and Sri Lanka hotspots. Within the pan-tropics, loss in vegetation biomass from areas with high probability of urban expansion is estimated to be 1.38 PgC (0.05 PgC yr−1), equal to ∼5% of emissions from tropical deforestation and land-use change. Although urbanization is often considered a local issue, the aggregate global impacts of projected urban expansion will require significant policy changes to affect future growth trajectories to minimize global biodiversity and vegetation carbon losses. PMID:22988086

Modeling urban expansion in Yangon, Myanmar using Landsat time-series and stereo GeoEye Images

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sritarapipat, Tanakorn; Takeuchi, Wataru

2016-06-01

This research proposed a methodology to model the urban expansion based dynamic statistical model using Landsat and GeoEye Images. Landsat Time-Series from 1978 to 2010 have been applied to extract land covers from the past to the present. Stereo GeoEye Images have been employed to obtain the height of the building. The class translation was obtained by observing land cover from the past to the present. The height of the building can be used to detect the center of the urban area (mainly commercial area). It was assumed that the class translation and the distance of multi-centers of the urban area also the distance of the roads affect the urban growth. The urban expansion model based on the dynamic statistical model was defined to refer to three factors; (1) the class translation, (2) the distance of the multicenters of the urban areas, and (3) the distance from the roads. Estimation and prediction of urban expansion by using our model were formulated and expressed in this research. The experimental area was set up in Yangon, Myanmar. Since it is the major of country's economic with more than five million population and the urban areas have rapidly increased. The experimental results indicated that our model of urban expansion estimated urban growth in both estimation and prediction steps in efficiency.

Detection of urban expansion in an urban-rural landscape with multitemporal QuickBird images

PubMed Central

Lu, Dengsheng; Hetrick, Scott; Moran, Emilio; Li, Guiying

2011-01-01

Accurately detecting urban expansion with remote sensing techniques is a challenge due to the complexity of urban landscapes. This paper explored methods for detecting urban expansion with multitemporal QuickBird images in Lucas do Rio Verde, Mato Grosso, Brazil. Different techniques, including image differencing, principal component analysis (PCA), and comparison of classified impervious surface images with the matched filtering method, were used to examine urbanization detection. An impervious surface image classified with the hybrid method was used to modify the urbanization detection results. As a comparison, the original multispectral image and segmentation-based mean-spectral images were used during the detection of urbanization. This research indicates that the comparison of classified impervious surface images with matched filtering method provides the best change detection performance, followed by the image differencing method based on segmentation-based mean spectral images. The PCA is not a good method for urban change detection in this study. Shadows and high spectral variation within the impervious surfaces represent major challenges to the detection of urban expansion when high spatial resolution images are used. PMID:21799706

Scenario prediction of emerging coastal city using CA modeling under different environmental conditions: a case study of Lingang New City, China.

PubMed

Feng, Yongjiu; Liu, Yan

2016-09-01

The world's coastal regions are experiencing rapid urbanization coupled with increased risk of ecological damage and storm surge related to global climate and sea level rising. This urban development issue is particularly important in China, where many emerging coastal cities are being developed. Lingang New City, southeast of Shanghai, is an excellent example of a coastal city that is increasingly vulnerable to environmental change. Sustainable urban development requires planning that classifies and allocates coastal lands using objective procedures that incorporate changing environmental conditions. In this paper, we applied cellular automata (CA) modeling based on self-adaptive genetic algorithm (SAGA) to predict future scenarios and explore sustainable urban development options for Lingang. The CA model was calibrated using the 2005 initial status, 2015 final status, and a set of spatial variables. We implemented specific ecological and environmental conditions as spatial constraints for the model and predicted four 2030 scenarios: (a) an urban planning-oriented Plan Scenario; (b) an ecosystem protection-oriented Eco Scenario; (c) a storm surge-affected Storm Scenario; and (d) a scenario incorporating both ecosystem protection and the effects of storm surge, called the Ecostorm Scenario. The Plan Scenario has been taken as the baseline, with the Lingang urban area increasing from 45.8 km(2) in 2015 to 66.8 km(2) in 2030, accounting for 23.9 % of the entire study area. The simulated urban land size of the Plan Scenario in 2030 was taken as the target to accommodate the projected population increase in this city, which was then applied in the remaining three development scenarios. We used CA modeling to reallocate the urban cells to other unconstrained areas in response to changing spatial constraints. Our predictions should be helpful not only in assessing and adjusting the urban planning schemes for Lingang but also for evaluating urban planning in coastal cities elsewhere.

Oil Palm expansion over Southeast Asia: land use change and air quality

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Silva, S. J.; Heald, C. L.; Geddes, J.; Marlier, M. E.; Austin, K.; Kasibhatla, P. S.

2015-12-01

Over recent decades oil palm plantations have rapidly expanded across Southeast Asia (SEA). Much of this expansion has come at the expense of natural forests and grasslands. Aircraft measurements from a 2008 campaign, OP3, found that oil palm plantations emit as much as 7 times more isoprene than nearby natural forests. Furthermore, SEA is a rapidly developing region, with increasing urban population, and growing air quality concerns. Thus, SEA represents an ideal case study to examine the impacts of land use change on air quality in the region, and whether those changes can be detected from satellite observations of atmospheric composition. We investigate the impacts of historical and future oil palm expansion in SEA using satellite data, high-resolution land maps, and the chemical transport model GEOS-Chem. We examine the impact of palm plantations on surface-atmosphere processes (dry deposition, biogenic emissions). We show the sensitivity of air quality to current and future oil palm expansion scenarios, and discuss the limitations of current satellite measurements in capturing these changes. Our results indicate that while the impact of oil palm expansion on air quality can be significant, the retrieval error and sensitivity of the satellite measurements limit our ability to observe these impacts from space.

Transportation Energy Futures Series: Alternative Fuel Infrastructure Expansion: Costs, Resources, Production Capacity, and Retail Availability for Low-Carbon Scenarios

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Melaina, W.; Heath, Garvin; Sandor, Debra

2013-04-01

The petroleum-based transportation fuel system is complex and highly developed, in contrast to the nascent low-petroleum, low-carbon alternative fuel system. This report examines how expansion of the low-carbon transportation fuel infrastructure could contribute to deep reductions in petroleum use and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions across the U.S. transportation sector. Three low-carbon scenarios, each using a different combination of low-carbon fuels, were developed to explore infrastructure expansion trends consistent with a study goal of reducing transportation sector GHG emissions to 80% less than 2005 levels by 2050.These scenarios were compared to a business-as-usual (BAU) scenario and were evaluated with respect tomore » four criteria: fuel cost estimates, resource availability, fuel production capacity expansion, and retail infrastructure expansion.« less

Effects of Land-use/Land-cover and Climate Changes on Water Quantity and Quality in Sub-basins near Major US Cities in the Great Lakes Region

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Murphy, L.; Al-Hamdan, M. Z.; Crosson, W. L.; Barik, M.

2017-12-01

Land-cover change over time to urbanized, less permeable surfaces, leads to reduced water infiltration at the location of water input while simultaneously transporting sediments, nutrients and contaminants farther downstream. With an abundance of agricultural fields bordering the greater urban areas of Milwaukee, Detroit, and Chicago, water and nutrient transport is vital to the farming industry, wetlands, and communities that rely on water availability. Two USGS stream gages each located within a sub-basin near each of these Great Lakes Region cities were examined, one with primarily urban land-cover between 1992 and 2011, and one with primarily agriculture land-cover. ArcSWAT, a watershed model and soil and water assessment tool used in extension with ArcGIS, was used to develop hydrologic models that vary the land-covers to simulate surface runoff during a model run period from 2004 to 2008. Model inputs that include a digital elevation model (DEM), Landsat-derived land-use/land-cover (LULC) satellite images from 1992, 2001, and 2011, soil classification, and meteorological data were used to determine the effect of different land-covers on the water runoff, nutrients and sediments. The models were then calibrated and validated to USGS stream gage data measurements over time. Additionally, the watershed model was run based on meteorological data from an IPCC CMIP5 high emissions climate change scenario for 2050. Model outputs from the different LCLU scenarios were statistically evaluated and results showed that water runoff, nutrients and sediments were impacted by LULC change in four out of the six sub-basins. In the 2050 climate scenario, only one out of the six sub-basin's water quantity and quality was affected. These results contribute to the importance of developing hydrologic models as the dependence on the Great Lakes as a freshwater resource competes with the expansion of urbanization leading to the movement of runoff, nutrients, and sediments off the land.

Reserch on Urban Spatial Expansion Model Based on Multi-Object Gray Decision-Making and Ca: a Case Study of Pidu District, Chengdu City

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liu, Z.; Li, Y.

2018-04-01

This paper from the perspective of the Neighbor cellular space, Proposed a new urban space expansion model based on a new multi-objective gray decision and CA. The model solved the traditional cellular automata conversion rules is difficult to meet the needs of the inner space-time analysis of urban changes and to overcome the problem of uncertainty in the combination of urban drivers and urban cellular automata. At the same time, the study takes Pidu District as a research area and carries out urban spatial simulation prediction and analysis, and draws the following conclusions: (1) The design idea of the urban spatial expansion model proposed in this paper is that the urban driving factor and the neighborhood function are tightly coupled by the multi-objective grey decision method based on geographical conditions. The simulation results show that the simulation error of urban spatial expansion is less than 5.27 %. The Kappa coefficient is 0.84. It shows that the model can better capture the inner transformation mechanism of the city. (2) We made a simulation prediction for Pidu District of Chengdu by discussing Pidu District of Chengdu as a system instance.In this way, we analyzed the urban growth tendency of this area.presenting a contiguous increasing mode, which is called "urban intensive development". This expansion mode accorded with sustainable development theory and the ecological urbanization design theory.

Examining Urban Expansion Using Multi-Temporal Landsat Imagery: a Case Study of the Montreal Census Metropolitan Area from 1975 TO 2015, Canada

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ma, Lingfei; Zhao, He; Li, Jonathan

2016-06-01

Urban expansion, particularly the movement of residential and commercial land use to sub-urban areas in metropolitan areas, has been considered as a significant signal of regional economic development. In 1970s, the economic centre of Canada moved from Montreal to Toronto. Since some previous research have been focused on the urbanization process in Greater Toronto Area (GTA), it is significant to conduct research in its counterpart. This study evaluates urban expansion process in Montréal census metropolitan area (CMA), Canada, between 1975 and 2015 using satellite images and socio-economic data. Spatial and temporal dynamic information of urbanization process was quantified using Landsat imagery, supervised classification algorithms and the post-classification change detection technique. Accuracy of the Landsat-derived land use classification map ranged from 80% to 97%. The results indicated that continuous growth of built-up areas in the CMA over the study period resulted in a decrease in the area of cultivated land and vegetation. The results showed that urban areas expanded 442 km2 both along major river systems and lakeshores, as well as expanded from urban centres to surrounded areas. The analysis revealed that urban expansion has been largely driven by population growth and economic development. Consequently, the urban expansion maps produced in this research can assist decision-makers to promote sustainable urban development, and forecast potential changes in urbanization growth patterns.

Generating local scale land use/cover change scenarios: case studies of high-risk mountain areas

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Malek, Žiga; Glade, Thomas; Boerboom, Luc

2014-05-01

The relationship between land use/cover changes and consequences to human well-being is well acknowledged and has led to higher interest of both researchers and decision makers in driving forces and consequences of such changes. For example, removal of natural vegetation cover or urban expansion resulting in new elements at risk can increase hydro-meteorological risk. This is why it is necessary to study how the land use/cover could evolve in the future. Emphasis should especially be given to areas experiencing, or expecting, high rates of socio-economic change. A suitable approach to address these changes is scenario development; it offers exploring possible futures and the corresponding environmental consequences, and aids decision-making, as it enables to analyse possible options. Scenarios provide a creative methodology to depict possible futures, resulting from existing decisions, based on different assumptions of future socio-economic development. They have been used in various disciplines and on various scales, such as flood risk and soil erosion. Several studies have simulated future scenarios of land use/cover changes at a very high success rate, however usually these approaches are tailor made for specific case study areas and fit to available data. This study presents a multi-step scenario generation framework, which can be transferable to other local scale case study areas, taking into account the case study specific consequences of land use/cover changes. Through the use of experts' and decision-makers' knowledge, we aimed to develop a framework with the following characteristics: (1) it enables development of scenarios that are plausible, (2) it can overcome data inaccessibility, (3) it can address intangible and external driving forces of land use/cover change, and (4) it ensures transferability to other local scale case study areas with different land use/cover change processes and consequences. To achieve this, a set of different methods is applied including: qualitative methods such as interviews, group discussions and fuzzy cognitive mapping to identify land use/cover change processes, their driving forces and possible consequences, and final scenario generation; and geospatial methods such as GIS, geostatistics and environmental modeling in an environment for geoprocessing objects (Dinamica EGO) for spatial allocation of these scenarios. The methods were applied in the Italian Alps and the Romanian Carpathians. Both are mountainous areas, however they differ in terms of past and most likely future socio-economic development, and therefore consequent land use/cover changes. Whereas we focused on urban expansion due to tourism development in the Alps, we focused on possible deforestation trajectories in the Carpathians. In both areas, the recognized most significant driving forces were either not covered by accessible data, or were characterized as intangible. With the proposed framework we were able to generate futures scenarios despite these shortcomings, and enabling the transferability of the method.

Quantifying urban growth patterns in Hanoi using landscape expansion modes and time series spatial metrics

PubMed Central

Lepczyk, Christopher A.; Miura, Tomoaki; Fox, Jefferson M.

2018-01-01

Urbanization has been driven by various social, economic, and political factors around the world for centuries. Because urbanization continues unabated in many places, it is crucial to understand patterns of urbanization and their potential ecological and environmental impacts. Given this need, the objectives of our study were to quantify urban growth rates, growth modes, and resultant changes in the landscape pattern of urbanization in Hanoi, Vietnam from 1993 to 2010 and to evaluate the extent to which the process of urban growth in Hanoi conformed to the diffusion-coalescence theory. We analyzed the spatiotemporal patterns and dynamics of the built-up land in Hanoi using landscape expansion modes, spatial metrics, and a gradient approach. Urbanization was most pronounced in the periods of 2001–2006 and 2006–2010 at a distance of 10 to 35 km around the urban center. Over the 17 year period urban expansion in Hanoi was dominated by infilling and edge expansion growth modes. Our findings support the diffusion-coalescence theory of urbanization. The shift of the urban growth areas over time and the dynamic nature of the spatial metrics revealed important information about our understanding of the urban growth process and cycle. Furthermore, our findings can be used to evaluate urban planning policies and aid in urbanization issues in rapidly urbanizing countries. PMID:29734346

Modelling spatial patterns of urban growth in Africa

PubMed Central

Linard, Catherine; Tatem, Andrew J.; Gilbert, Marius

2013-01-01

The population of Africa is predicted to double over the next 40 years, driving exceptionally high urban expansion rates that will induce significant socio-economic, environmental and health changes. In order to prepare for these changes, it is important to better understand urban growth dynamics in Africa and better predict the spatial pattern of rural-urban conversions. Previous work on urban expansion has been carried out at the city level or at the global level with a relatively coarse 5–10 km resolution. The main objective of the present paper was to develop a modelling approach at an intermediate scale in order to identify factors that influence spatial patterns of urban expansion in Africa. Boosted Regression Tree models were developed to predict the spatial pattern of rural-urban conversions in every large African city. Urban change data between circa 1990 and circa 2000 available for 20 large cities across Africa were used as training data. Results showed that the urban land in a 1 km neighbourhood and the accessibility to the city centre were the most influential variables. Results obtained were generally more accurate than results obtained using a distance-based urban expansion model and showed that the spatial pattern of small, compact and fast growing cities were easier to simulate than cities with lower population densities and a lower growth rate. The simulation method developed here will allow the production of spatially detailed urban expansion forecasts for 2020 and 2025 for Africa, data that are increasingly required by global change modellers. PMID:25152552

Heat stress increase under climate change twice as large in cities as in rural areas: A study for a densely populated midlatitude maritime region

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wouters, Hendrik; De Ridder, Koen; Poelmans, Lien; Willems, Patrick; Brouwers, Johan; Hosseinzadehtalaei, Parisa; Tabari, Hossein; Vanden Broucke, Sam; van Lipzig, Nicole P. M.; Demuzere, Matthias

2017-09-01

Urban areas are usually warmer than their surrounding natural areas, an effect known as the urban heat island effect. As such, they are particularly vulnerable to global warming and associated increases in extreme temperatures. Yet ensemble climate-model projections are generally performed on a scale that is too coarse to represent the evolution of temperatures in cities. Here, for the first time, we combine unprecedented long-term (35 years) urban climate model integrations at the convection-permitting scale (2.8 km resolution) with information from an ensemble of general circulation models to assess temperature-based heat stress for Belgium, a densely populated midlatitude maritime region. We discover that the heat stress increase toward the mid-21st century is twice as large in cities compared to their surrounding rural areas. The exacerbation is driven by the urban heat island itself, its concurrence with heat waves, and urban expansion. Cities experience a heat stress multiplication by a factor 1.4 and 15 depending on the scenario. Remarkably, the future heat stress surpasses everywhere the urban hot spots of today. Our results demonstrate the need to combine information from climate models, acting on different scales, for climate change risk assessment in heterogeneous regions. Moreover, these results highlight the necessity for adaptation to increasing heat stress, especially in urban areas.

Medicaid Expansion Affects Rural And Urban Hospitals Differently.

PubMed

Kaufman, Brystana G; Reiter, Kristin L; Pink, George H; Holmes, George M

2016-09-01

Rural hospitals differ from urban hospitals in many ways. For example, rural hospitals are more reliant on public payers and have lower operating margins. In addition, enrollment in the health insurance Marketplaces of the Affordable Care Act (ACA) has varied across rural and urban areas. This study employed a difference-in-differences approach to evaluate the average effect of Medicaid expansion in 2014 on payer mix and profitability for urban and rural hospitals, controlling for secular trends. For both types of hospitals, we found that Medicaid expansion was associated with increases in Medicaid-covered discharges. However, the increases in Medicaid revenue were greater among rural hospitals than urban hospitals, and the decrease in the proportion of costs for uncompensated care were greater among urban hospitals than rural hospitals. This preliminary analysis of the early effects of Medicaid expansion suggests that its financial impacts may be different for hospitals in urban and rural locations. Project HOPE—The People-to-People Health Foundation, Inc.

Urban expansion dynamics and natural habitat loss in China: a multiscale landscape perspective.

PubMed

He, Chunyang; Liu, Zhifeng; Tian, Jie; Ma, Qun

2014-09-01

China's extensive urbanization has resulted in a massive loss of natural habitat, which is threatening the nation's biodiversity and socioeconomic sustainability. A timely and accurate understanding of natural habitat loss caused by urban expansion will allow more informed and effective measures to be taken for the conservation of biodiversity. However, the impact of urban expansion on natural habitats is not well-understood, primarily due to the lack of accurate spatial information regarding urban expansion across China. In this study, we proposed an approach that can be used to accurately summarize the dynamics of urban expansion in China over two recent decades (1992-2012), by integrating data on nighttime light levels, a vegetation index, and land surface temperature. The natural habitat loss during the time period was evaluated at the national, ecoregional, and local scales. The results revealed that China had experienced extremely rapid urban growth from 1992 to 2012 with an average annual growth rate of 8.74%, in contrast with the global average of 3.20%. The massive urban expansion has resulted in significant natural habitat loss in some areas in China. Special attention needs to be paid to the Pearl River Delta, where 25.79% or 1518 km(2) of the natural habitat and 41.99% or 760 km(2) of the local wetlands were lost during 1992-2012. This raises serious concerns about species viability and biodiversity. Effective policies and regulations must be implemented and enforced to sustain regional and national development in the context of rapid urbanization. © 2014 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

The Changing Face of the of Former Soviet Cities: Elucidated by Remote Sensing and Machine Learning Techniques

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Poghosyan, Armen

2017-04-01

Despite remote sensing of urbanization emerged as a powerful tool to acquire critical knowledge about urban growth and its effects on global environmental change, human-environment interface as well as environmentally sustainable urban development, there is lack of studies utilizing remote sensing techniques to investigate urbanization trends in the Post-Soviet states. The unique challenges accompanying the urbanization in the Post-Soviet republics combined with the expected robust urban growth in developing countries over the next several decades highlight the critical need for a quantitative assessment of the urban dynamics in the former Soviet states as they navigate towards a free market democracy. This study uses total of 32 Level-1 precision terrain corrected (L1T) Landsat scenes with 30-m resolution as well as further auxiliary population and economic data for ten cities distributed in nine former Soviet republics to quantify the urbanization patterns in the Post-Soviet region. Land cover in each urban center of this study was classified by using Support Vector Machine (SVM) learning algorithm with overall accuracies ranging from 87 % to 97 % for 29 classification maps over three time steps during the past twenty-five years in order to estimate quantities, trends and drivers of urban growth in the study area. The results demonstrated several spatial and temporal urbanization patterns observed across the Post-Soviet states and based on urban expansion rates the cities can be divided into two groups, fast growing and slow growing urban centers. The relatively fast-growing urban centers have an average urban expansion rate of about 2.8 % per year, whereas the slow growing cities have an average urban expansion rate of about 1.0 % per year. The total area of new land converted to urban environment ranged from as low as 26 km2 to as high as 780 km2 for the ten cities over the 1990 - 2015 period, while the overall urban land increase ranged from 11.3 % to 96.6 % over the study period. Thus, after some initial developments following the breakup of the Soviet Union the growth rate in the urban core decreased gradually constrained by the availability of suitable land, while the urban expansion rates in the outer peripheral region were characterized with a robust urban growth rates across the study area. The rapid urban expansion observed in the former Soviet cities impairs environmentally sustainable characteristics such as compactness, better integrated land uses with abundant parks and greenbelts, low social polarization, as well as reliable public transit systems in some urban centers after the disintegration of the Soviet Union. The urban expansion rates considerably outpaced the urban population growth rates in all ten cities during the last quarter of a century, thus indicating that the urban growth is becoming more expansive with all cities experiencing significant decreases in overall urban population densities.

Urban Intensification and Expansion in Sub-Saharan Africa: Impacts on Urban Agriculture and Food Security

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Uzokwe, V. N. E. N.; Muchelo, R. O.; Odeh, I. A.

2015-12-01

In Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA), urban intensification and expansion are increasing at alarming rates due to rapid population growth and rural-to-urban migration. This has led to the premise that the proportion of SSA urban residents most vulnerable to food insecurity is the highest in the world. Using a focused survey and multi-temporal (decadal) land use/cover classification of Landsat images, we explored the effect of urban intensification and expansion on urban agriculture and food security, focusing on a megacity and a regional center in Uganda: Kampala and Mbarara, respectively. We found that food insecurity arose due to a number of reasons, among which are: i) expansion and intensification of of urban settlements into previously productive agricultural lands in urban and peri-urban areas; ii) loss of predominantly young (rural agricultural) adult labor force to urban centers, leading to decline in rural food production; iii) lack of proper urban planning incorporating green and agricultural development leading to low productive market garden systems. We discussed these outcomes in light of existing studies which estimated that urban agriculture alone supports over 800 million people globally and accounts for 15-20% of world food supply. In spite of this relatively low contribution by urban/peri-urban agriculture, it probably accounts for higher proportion of food supply to urban poor in SSA and thus are most vulnerable to the loss of urban and peri-urban agricultural land. Further recommendations require policy makers and urban planners to team up to design a suitable framework for sustainable urban planning and development.

Monitoring the expansion of built-up areas in Seberang Perai region, Penang State, Malaysia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Samat, N.

2014-02-01

Rapid urbanization has caused land use transformation and encroachment of built environment into arable agriculture land. Uncontrolled expansion could bring negative impacts to society, space and the environment. Therefore, information on expansion and future spatial pattern of built-up areas would be useful for planners and decision makers in formulating policies towards managing and planning for sustainable urban development. This study demonstrates the usage of Geographic Information System in monitoring the expansion of built-up area in Seberang Perai region, Penang State, Malaysia. Built-up area has increased by approximately 20% between 1990 and 2001 and further increased by 12% between 2001 and 2007. New development is expected to continue encroach into existing open space and agriculture area since those are the only available land in this study area. The information on statistics of the expansion of built-up area and future spatial pattern of urban expansion were useful in planning and managing urban spatial growth.

Spatially explicit land-use and land-cover scenarios for the Great Plains of the United States

USGS Publications Warehouse

Sohl, Terry L.; Sleeter, Benjamin M.; Sayler, Kristi L.; Bouchard, Michelle A.; Reker, Ryan R.; Bennett, Stacie L.; Sleeter, Rachel R.; Kanengieter, Ronald L.; Zhu, Zhi-Liang

2012-01-01

The Great Plains of the United States has undergone extensive land-use and land-cover change in the past 150 years, with much of the once vast native grasslands and wetlands converted to agricultural crops, and much of the unbroken prairie now heavily grazed. Future land-use change in the region could have dramatic impacts on ecological resources and processes. A scenario-based modeling framework is needed to support the analysis of potential land-use change in an uncertain future, and to mitigate potentially negative future impacts on ecosystem processes. We developed a scenario-based modeling framework to analyze potential future land-use change in the Great Plains. A unique scenario construction process, using an integrated modeling framework, historical data, workshops, and expert knowledge, was used to develop quantitative demand for future land-use change for four IPCC scenarios at the ecoregion level. The FORE-SCE model ingested the scenario information and produced spatially explicit land-use maps for the region at relatively fine spatial and thematic resolutions. Spatial modeling of the four scenarios provided spatial patterns of land-use change consistent with underlying assumptions and processes associated with each scenario. Economically oriented scenarios were characterized by significant loss of natural land covers and expansion of agricultural and urban land uses. Environmentally oriented scenarios experienced modest declines in natural land covers to slight increases. Model results were assessed for quantity and allocation disagreement between each scenario pair. In conjunction with the U.S. Geological Survey's Biological Carbon Sequestration project, the scenario-based modeling framework used for the Great Plains is now being applied to the entire United States.

Effects of City Expansion on Heat Stress under Climate Change Conditions

PubMed Central

Argüeso, Daniel; Evans, Jason P.; Pitman, Andrew J.; Di Luca, Alejandro

2015-01-01

We examine the joint contribution of urban expansion and climate change on heat stress over the Sydney region. A Regional Climate Model was used to downscale present (1990–2009) and future (2040–2059) simulations from a Global Climate Model. The effects of urban surfaces on local temperature and vapor pressure were included. The role of urban expansion in modulating the climate change signal at local scales was investigated using a human heat-stress index combining temperature and vapor pressure. Urban expansion and climate change leads to increased risk of heat-stress conditions in the Sydney region, with substantially more frequent adverse conditions in urban areas. Impacts are particularly obvious in extreme values; daytime heat-stress impacts are more noticeable in the higher percentiles than in the mean values and the impact at night is more obvious in the lower percentiles than in the mean. Urban expansion enhances heat-stress increases due to climate change at night, but partly compensates its effects during the day. These differences are due to a stronger contribution from vapor pressure deficit during the day and from temperature increases during the night induced by urban surfaces. Our results highlight the inappropriateness of assessing human comfort determined using temperature changes alone and point to the likelihood that impacts of climate change assessed using models that lack urban surfaces probably underestimate future changes in terms of human comfort. PMID:25668390

Identifying the driving forces of urban expansion and its environmental impact in Jakarta-Bandung mega urban region

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pravitasari, A. E.; Rustiadi, E.; Mulya, S. P.; Setiawan, Y.; Fuadina, L. N.; Murtadho, A.

2018-05-01

The socio-economic development in Jakarta-Bandung Mega Urban Region (JBMUR) caused the increasing of urban expansion and led to a variety of environmental damage such as uncontrolled land use conversion and raising anthropogenic disaster. The objectives of this study are: (1) to identify the driving forces of urban expansion that occurs on JBMUR and (2) to analyze the environmental quality decline on JBMUR by producing time series spatial distribution map and spatial autocorrelation of floods and landslide as the proxy of anthropogenic disaster. The driving forces of urban expansion in this study were identified by employing Geographically Weighted Regression (GWR) model using 6 (six) independent variables, namely: population density, percentage of agricultural land, distance to the center of capital city/municipality, percentage of household who works in agricultural sector, distance to the provincial road, and distance to the local road. The GWR results showed that local demographic, social and economic factors including distance to the road spatially affect urban expansion in JBMUR. The time series spatial distribution map of floods and landslide event showed the spatial cluster of anthropogenic disaster in some areas. Through Local Moran Index, we found that environmental damage in one location has a significant impact on the condition of its surrounding area.

Global Forecasts of Urban Expansion to 2030 and Direct Impacts on Biodiversity and Carbon Pools

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Seto, K. C.; Guneralp, B.; Hutyra, L.

2012-12-01

Urban land cover change threatens biodiversity and affects ecosystem productivity through loss of habitat, biomass, and carbon storage. Yet, despite projections that world urban populations will increase to 4.3 billion by 2030, little is known about future locations, magnitudes, and rates of urban expansion. Here we develop the first global probabilistic forecasts of urban land cover change and explore the impacts on biodiversity hotspots and tropical carbon biomass. If current trends in population density continue, then by 2030, urban land cover will expand between 800,000 and 3.3 million km2, representing a doubling to five-fold increase from the global urban land cover in 2000. This would result in considerable loss of habitats in key biodiversity hotspots, including the Guinean forests of West Africa, Tropical Andes, Western Ghats and Sri Lanka. Within the pan-tropics, loss in forest biomass from urban expansion is estimated to be 1.38 PgC (0.05 PgC yr-1), equal to approximately 5% of emissions from tropical land use change. Although urbanization is often considered a local issue, the aggregate global impacts of projected urban expansion will require significant policy changes to affect future growth trajectories to minimize global biodiversity and forest carbon losses.

An evaluation of the hybrid car technology for the Mexico Mega City

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jazcilevich, Aron D.; Reynoso, Agustin Garcia; Grutter, Michel; Delgado, Javier; Ayala, Ulises Diego; Lastra, Manuel Suarez; Zuk, Miriam; Oropeza, Rogelio Gonzalez; Lents, Jim; Davis, Nicole

The introduction of hybrid electric vehicle (HEV) technology in the private car fleet of Mexico City is evaluated in terms of private costs, energy, public health and CO 2 emission benefits. In addition to constructing plausible scenarios for urban expansion, emission, car fleet, and fuel consumption for year 2026 and comparing them with a 2004 base case, a time series is built to obtain accumulated economic benefits. Experimental techniques were used to build a vehicle library for a car simulator that included a Prius 2002, chosen as the HEV technology representative for this work. The simulator is used to estimate the emissions and fuel consumption of the car fleet scenarios. In the context of an urban scenario for year 2026, a complex air quality model obtains the concentrations of criterion pollutants corresponding to these scenarios. Using a technology penetration model, the hybridized fleet starts unfolding in year 2009 reaching to 20% in 2026. In this year, the hybridized fleet resulted in reductions of about 10% of CO 2 emissions, and yielded reductions in daytime mean concentrations of up to 7% in ozone and 3.4% in PM 2.5 compared to the 2004 base case. These reductions are concentrated in the densely populated areas of Mexico City. By building a time series of costs and benefits it is shown that, depending on fuel prices and using a 5% return rate, positive accumulated benefits (CO 2 benefits + energy benefits + public health benefits - private costs) will start generating in year 2015 reaching between 2.8 and 4.5 billion US Dlls in 2026. Another modernized private fleet consisting exclusively of Tier I and II cars did not yield appreciable results, signaling that a change in private car technology towards HEV's is needed to obtain significant accumulated benefits.

[Reconstruction of urban land space based on minimum cumulative resistance model: a case study of Xintang Town, Guangzhou City].

PubMed

Zhong, Shi-Yu; Wu, Qing; Li, Yu; Cheng, Jin-Ping

2012-11-01

Based on the source-sink landscape theory and the principles of ecosystem services, the minimum cumulative resistance (MCR) model was modified, where the urban center construction land was taken as the expansion source, and the contribution rate of ecological land ecosystem services value was considered as the resistance coefficient. With the modified MCR, the urban spatial expansion process of Xintang Town, Guangzhou City was successfully simulated, and, based on the protection of ecological security pattern, the optimum path for reconstructing urban land space was put forward. The simulated urban spatial expansion short path in 1988-2008 was in accordance with the real situation. By the modified MCR, the urban space was divided into four zones of high, higher, medium, and low resistance, with the area of 80.84, 78.90, 24.26, and 61.88 km2, respectively. The expansion path of the urban space was along the route from low to medium and then to high resistance zones successively. The land suitable for eco-protection and construction had an area of 159.74 km2 and 86.14 km2, while the ecological conflict area (17.37 km2) was mainly located in higher and high resistance zones, being 10.38 and 6.99 km2, respectively. The modified MCR could not only effectively reflect the distribution area of urban land use and the conflict relationship between urban construction and ecological protection, but also reasonably judge the best developmental short path for urban spatial expansion.

Sustainable Improvement of Urban River Network Water Quality and Flood Control Capacity by a Hydrodynamic Control Approach-Case Study of Changshu City

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Xie, Chen; Yang, Fan; Liu, Guoqing; Liu, Yang; Wang, Long; Fan, Ziwu

2017-01-01

Water environment of urban rivers suffers degradation with the impacts of urban expansion, especially in Yangtze River Delta. The water area in cites decreased sharply, and some rivers were cut off because of estate development, which brings the problems of urban flooding, flow stagnation and water deterioration. The approach aims to enhance flood control capability and improve the urban river water quality by planning gate-pump stations surrounding the cities and optimizing the locations and functions of the pumps, sluice gates, weirs in the urban river network. These gate-pump stations together with the sluice gates and weirs guarantee the ability to control the water level in the rivers and creating hydraulic gradient artificially according to mathematical model. Therefore the flow velocity increases, which increases the rate of water exchange, the DO concentration and water body self-purification ability. By site survey and prototype measurement, the river problems are evaluated and basic data are collected. The hydrodynamic model of the river network is established and calibrated to simulate the scenarios. The schemes of water quality improvement, including optimizing layout of the water distribution projects, improvement of the flow discharge in the river network and planning the drainage capacity are decided by comprehensive Analysis. Finally the paper introduces the case study of the approach in Changshu City, where the approach is successfully implemented.

The effect of urban growth on landscape-scale restoration for a fire-dependent songbird

USGS Publications Warehouse

Pickens, Bradley A.; Marcus, Jeffrey F.; Carpenter, John P.; Anderson, Scott; Taillie, Paul J.; Collazo, Jaime A.

2017-01-01

A landscape-scale perspective on restoration ecology has been advocated, but few studies have informed restoration with landscape metrics or addressed broad-scale threats. Threats such as urban growth may affect restoration effectiveness in a landscape context. Here, we studied longleaf pine savanna in the rapidly urbanizing southeastern United States where a habitat-specialist bird, Bachman's sparrow (Peucaea aestivalis), is closely associated with savanna vegetation structure and frequent fire. Our objectives were to construct a species distribution model for Bachman's sparrow, determine the relationship between fire and urbanization, quantify the urban growth effect (2010–2090), identify potential restoration areas, and determine the interaction between restoration potential and urban growth by 2050. Number of patches, patch size, and isolation metrics were used to evaluate scenarios. The species distribution model was 88% accurate and emphasized multiscale canopy cover characteristics, fire, and percent habitat. Fires were less common <600 m from urban areas, and this fire suppression effect exacerbated urban growth effects. For restoration scenarios, canopy cover reduction by 30% resulted in nearly double the amount of habitat compared to the prescribed fire scenario; canopy cover reduction resulted in larger patch sizes and less patch isolation compared to current conditions. The effect of urban growth on restoration scenarios was unequal. Seventy-four percent of restoration areas from the prescribed fire scenario overlapped with projected urban growth, whereas the canopy cover reduction scenario only overlapped by 9%. We emphasize the benefits of simultaneously considering the effects of urban growth and landscape-scale restoration potential to promote a landscape with greater patch sizes and less isolation.

Urban Expansion Study

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

1985-01-01

Under an Egyptian government contract, PADCO studies urban growth in the Nile Area. They were assisted by LANDSAT survey maps and measurements provided by TAC. TAC had classified the raw LANDSAT data and processed it into various categories to detail urban expansion. PADCO crews spot checked the results, and correlations were established.

[Landscape ecological security pattern during urban expansion of Nanchong City].

PubMed

Li, Sui; Shi, Tie-mao; Fu, Shi-lei; Zhou, Le; Liu, Miao; Wang, Wei

2011-03-01

Based on the theory of landscape ecological security pattern and the RS and GIS techniques, this paper analyzed the distribution of ecological security grades in Nanchong City, taking six elements including terrain condition, flood hazard, soil erosion, vegetation cover, geological disaster, and biological protection as the ecological constraints (or determinants) of urban expansion. According to the minimum cumulative resistance model, the ecological corridors and ecological nodes were built to strengthen the space contact of ecological network, and, on the basis of the protection of ecological safety, the reasonable trend of urban expansion and the optimization of space layout were investigated. The results showed that the ecological security of Nanchong City was quite good, with the regions of low ecological security mainly distributed in the west suburban mountains and the downstream region of Jialing River in the south of the City. Ecological elements were the most important constraints for the future expansion of urban space. There were more spaces for the urban expansion in the southern and northern parts of Nanchong City. To develop satellite towns would be the best selection to guarantee the ecological security of the city.

Benefits and costs of oil palm expansion in Central Kalimantan, Indonesia, under different policy scenarios.

PubMed

Sumarga, Elham; Hein, Lars

Deforestation and oil palm expansion in Central Kalimantan province are among the highest in Indonesia. This study examines the physical and monetary impacts of oil palm expansion in Central Kalimantan up to 2025 under three policy scenarios. Our modelling approach combines a spatial logistic regression model with a set of rules governing land use change as a function of the policy scenario. Our physical and monetary analyses include palm oil expansion and five other ecosystem services: timber, rattan, paddy rice, carbon sequestration, and orangutan habitat (the last service is analysed in physical units only). In monetary terms, our analysis comprises the contribution of land and ecosystems to economic production, as measured according to the valuation approach of the System of National Accounts. We focus our analysis on government-owned land which covers around 97 % of the province, where the main policy issues are. We show that, in the business-as-usual scenario, the societal costs of carbon emissions and the loss of other ecosystem services far exceed the benefits from increased oil palm production. This is, in particular, related to the conversion of peatlands. We also show that, for Central Kalimantan, the moratorium scenario, which is modelled based on the moratorium currently in place in Indonesia, generates important economic benefits compared to the business-as-usual scenario. In the moratorium scenario, however, there is still conversion of forest to plantation and associated loss of ecosystem services. We developed an alternative, sustainable production scenario based on an ecosystem services approach and show that this policy scenario leads to higher net social benefits including some more space for oil palm expansion.

Characterization and spatial modeling of urban sprawl in the Wuhan Metropolitan Area, China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zeng, Chen; Liu, Yaolin; Stein, Alfred; Jiao, Limin

2015-02-01

Urban sprawl has led to environmental problems and large losses of arable land in China. In this study, we monitor and model urban sprawl by means of a combination of remote sensing, geographical information system and spatial statistics. We use time-series data to explore the potential socio-economic driving forces behind urban sprawl, and spatial models in different scenarios to explore the spatio-temporal interactions. The methodology is applied to the city of Wuhan, China, for the period from 1990 to 2013. The results reveal that the built-up land has expanded and has dispersed in urban clusters. Population growth, and economic and transportation development are still the main causes of urban sprawl; however, when they have developed to certain levels, the area affected by construction in urban areas (Jian Cheng Qu (JCQ)) and the area of cultivated land (ACL) tend to be stable. Spatial regression models are shown to be superior to the traditional models. The interaction among districts with the same administrative status is stronger than if one of those neighbors is in the city center and the other in the suburban area. The expansion of urban built-up land is driven by the socio-economic development at the same period, and greatly influenced by its spatio-temporal neighbors. We conclude that the integration of remote sensing, a geographical information system, and spatial statistics offers an excellent opportunity to explore the spatio-temporal variation and interactions among the districts in the sprawling metropolitan areas. Relevant regulations to control the urban sprawl process are suggested accordingly.

The Increasing Influence of Urban Environments on US Forest Management

Treesearch

David J. Nowak; Jeffrey T. Walton; John F. Dwyer; Latif G. Kaya; Soojeong Myeong; Soojeong Myeong

2005-01-01

The expansion of urban land promises to have an increasingly significant influence on US forest management in the coming decades. Percent of the coterminous United States classified as urban increased from 2.5% in 1990 to 3.1% in 2000, an area about the size of Vermont and New Hampshire combined. Patterns of urban expansion reveal that increased growth rates are likely...

Monitoring urban expansion and land use/land cover changes of Shanghai metropolitan area during the transitional economy (1979-2009) in China.

PubMed

Yin, Jie; Yin, Zhane; Zhong, Haidong; Xu, Shiyuan; Hu, Xiaomeng; Wang, Jun; Wu, Jianping

2011-06-01

This study explored the spatio-temporal dynamics and evolution of land use/cover changes and urban expansion in Shanghai metropolitan area, China, during the transitional economy period (1979-2009) using multi-temporal satellite images and geographic information systems (GIS). A maximum likelihood supervised classification algorithm was employed to extract information from four landsat images, with the post-classification change detection technique and GIS-based spatial analysis methods used to detect land-use and land-cover (LULC) changes. The overall Kappa indices of land use/cover change maps ranged from 0.79 to 0.89. Results indicated that urbanization has accelerated at an unprecedented scale and rate during the study period, leading to a considerable reduction in the area of farmland and green land. Findings further revealed that water bodies and bare land increased, obviously due to large-scale coastal development after 2000. The direction of urban expansion was along a north-south axis from 1979 to 2000, but after 2000 this growth changed to spread from both the existing urban area and along transport routes in all directions. Urban expansion and subsequent LULC changes in Shanghai have largely been driven by policy reform, population growth, and economic development. Rapid urban expansion through clearing of vegetation has led to a wide range of eco-environmental degradation.

The effect of urban growth on landscape-scale restoration for a fire-dependent songbird.

PubMed

Pickens, Bradley A; Marcus, Jeffrey F; Carpenter, John P; Anderson, Scott; Taillie, Paul J; Collazo, Jaime A

2017-04-15

A landscape-scale perspective on restoration ecology has been advocated, but few studies have informed restoration with landscape metrics or addressed broad-scale threats. Threats such as urban growth may affect restoration effectiveness in a landscape context. Here, we studied longleaf pine savanna in the rapidly urbanizing southeastern United States where a habitat-specialist bird, Bachman's sparrow (Peucaea aestivalis), is closely associated with savanna vegetation structure and frequent fire. Our objectives were to construct a species distribution model for Bachman's sparrow, determine the relationship between fire and urbanization, quantify the urban growth effect (2010-2090), identify potential restoration areas, and determine the interaction between restoration potential and urban growth by 2050. Number of patches, patch size, and isolation metrics were used to evaluate scenarios. The species distribution model was 88% accurate and emphasized multiscale canopy cover characteristics, fire, and percent habitat. Fires were less common <600 m from urban areas, and this fire suppression effect exacerbated urban growth effects. For restoration scenarios, canopy cover reduction by 30% resulted in nearly double the amount of habitat compared to the prescribed fire scenario; canopy cover reduction resulted in larger patch sizes and less patch isolation compared to current conditions. The effect of urban growth on restoration scenarios was unequal. Seventy-four percent of restoration areas from the prescribed fire scenario overlapped with projected urban growth, whereas the canopy cover reduction scenario only overlapped by 9%. We emphasize the benefits of simultaneously considering the effects of urban growth and landscape-scale restoration potential to promote a landscape with greater patch sizes and less isolation. Copyright © 2017 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.

Web-Based Water Accounting Scenario Platform to Address Uncertainties in Water Resources Management in the Mekong : A Case Study in Ca River Basin, Vietnam

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Apirumanekul, C.; Purkey, D. R.; Pudashine, J.; Seifollahi-Aghmiuni, S.; Wang, D.; Ate, P.; Meechaiya, C.

2017-12-01

Rapid economic development in the Mekong Region is placing pressure on environmental resources. Uncertain changes in land-use, increasing urbanization, infrastructure development, migration patterns and climate risks s combined with scarce water resources are increasing water demand in various sectors. More appropriate policies, strategies and planning for sustainable water resource management are urgently needed. Over the last five years, Vietnam has experienced more frequent and intense droughts affecting agricultural and domestic water use during the dry season. The Ca River Basin is the third largest river basin in Vietnam with 35% of its area located in Lao PDR. The delta landscape comprises natural vegetation, forest, paddy fields, farming and urban areas. The Ca River Basin is experiencing ongoing water scarcity that impacts on crop production, farming livelihoods and household water consumption. Water scarcity is exacerbated by uncertainties in policy changes (e.g. changes in land-use, crop types), basin development (e.g. reservoir construction, urban expansion), and climate change (e.g. changes in rainfall patterns and onset of monsoon). The Water Evaluation And Planning (WEAP) model, with inputs from satellite-based information and institutional data, is used to estimate water supply, water use and water allocation in various sectors (e.g. household, crops, irrigation and flood control) under a wide range of plausible future scenarios in the Ca River Basin. Web-Based Water Allocation Scenario Platform is an online implementation of WEAP model structured in terms of a gaming experience. The online game, as an educational tool, helps key agencies relevant to water resources management understand and explore the complexity of integrated system of river basin under a wide range of scenarios. Performance of the different water resources strategies in Ca River Basin (e.g. change of dam operation to address needs in various sectors, construction of dams, changes in cropping patterns and increasing irrigation diversion) under a wide range of uncertainties will be assessed. The game allows stakeholders to participate in a realistic game that requires them to make choices amongst various water management strategies with the goal of improving water management towards greater sustainability.

Remote Sensing and Spatial Growth Modeling Coupled with Air Quality Modeling to Assess the Impact of Atlanta, Georgia on the Local and Regional Environment

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Quattrochi, Dale A.; Estes, Maurice G., Jr.; Crosson, William; Khan, Maudood

2006-01-01

The growth of cities, both in population and areal extent, appears as an inexorable process. Urbanization continues at a rapid rate, and it is estimated that by the year 2025, 80 percent of the world s population will live in cities. Directly aligned with the expansion of cities is urban sprawl. Urban expansion has profound impacts on a host of biophysical, environmental, and atmospheric processes. A reduction in air quality over cities is a major result of these impacts. Strategies that can be directly or indirectly implemented to help remediate air quality problems in cities and that can be accepted by political decision makers and the general public are now being explored to help bring down air pollutants and improve air quality. The urban landscape is inherently complex and this complexity is not adequately captured in air quality models, particularly the Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ) model that is used to assess whether urban areas are in attainment of EPA air quality standards, primarily for ground level ozone. This inadequacy of the CMAQ model to sufficiently respond to the heterogeneous nature of the urban landscape can impact how well the model predicts ozone pollutant levels over metropolitan areas and ultimately, whether cities exceed EPA ozone air quality standards. We are exploring the utility of high-resolution remote sensing data and urban spatial growth modeling (SGM) projections as improved inputs to the meteorology component of the CMAQ model focusing on the Atlanta, Georgia metropolitan area as a case study. These growth projections include "business as usual" and "smart growth" scenarios out to 2030. The growth projections illustrate the effects of employing urban heat island mitigation strategies, such as increasing tree canopy and albedo across the Atlanta metro area, which in turn, are used to model how ozone and air temperature can potentially be moderated as impacts on elevating ground-level ozone, as opposed to not utilizing heat island mitigation strategies. The National Land Cover Dataset at 30m resolution is being used as the land use/land cover input and aggregated to the 4km scale for the MM5 mesoscale meteorological model and the (CMAQ) modeling schemes. Use of these data have been found to better characterize low density/suburban development as compared with USGS 1km land use/land cover data that have traditionally been used in modeling. Air quality prediction for future scenarios to 2030 is being facilitated by land use projections using a spatial growth model. Land use projections were developed using the 2030 Regional Transportation Plan developed by the Atlanta Regional Commission, the regional planning agency for the area. This allows the State Environmental Protection agency to evaluate how these transportation plans will affect future air quality. The coupled SGM and air quality modeling approach provides insight on what the impacts of Atlanta s growth will be on the local and regional environment and exists as a mechanism that can be used by policy makers to make rationale decisions on urban growth and sustainability for the metropolitan area in the future.

Urbanization and watershed sustainability: Collaborative simulation modeling of future development states

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Randhir, Timothy O.; Raposa, Sarah

2014-11-01

Urbanization has a significant impact on water resources and requires a watershed-based approach to evaluate impacts of land use and urban development on watershed processes. This study uses a simulation with urban policy scenarios to model and strategize transferable recommendations for municipalities and cities to guide urban decisions using watershed ecohydrologic principles. The watershed simulation model is used to evaluation intensive (policy in existing built regions) and extensive (policy outside existing build regions) urban development scenarios with and without implementation of Best Management practices (BMPs). Water quantity and quality changes are simulated to assess effectiveness of five urban development scenarios. It is observed that optimal combination of intensive and extensive strategies can be used to sustain urban ecosystems. BMPs are found critical to reduce storm water and water quality impacts on urban development. Conservation zoning and incentives for voluntary adoption of BMPs can be used in sustaining urbanizing watersheds.

Urbanization Process Monitoring in Northwest China based on DMSP/OLS Nighttime Light Data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, K.; Bai, L. Y.; Feng, J. Z.

2017-02-01

In recent years, the DMSP/OLS nighttime light data have been widely applied to various fields such as monitoring and evaluation of urbanization, estimation of social economy, economical environment and health effects, hazards analysis, and fisheries research. The general urbanized level in China has rapidly developed since the 1990s, and the cities in northwest China, which were important population centres of the ancient silk road, have also been developed in a high speed thanks to China’s national strategy of Western Development. Given the Xinjiang autonomous region as a core area of One Belt and One Road, it is very necessary to study the urbanization processes and changes of its urban system and the whole northwest region of China. In this paper, we extracted built-up areas of the cities in northwest China in 1992, 1997, 2002, 2007, and 2012, evaluated urban expansion and spatial pattern through appropriate indexes, and also quantitatively analyzed the urbanized level of each city. The results showed that the cities in northwest China generally presented high strong and rapid expansion, but there were some large differences among cities. Urban expansion forms alternate with exterior expansion and interior filling, in general, the cities externally expandedafter 2002 and internally filledbefore 2002, meanwhile, there were a high positive correlation between urban built-up areas and population growth in Xinjiang autonomous.

Landscape urbanization and economic growth in China: positive feedbacks and sustainability dilemmas.

PubMed

Bai, Xuemei; Chen, Jing; Shi, Peijun

2012-01-03

Accelerating urbanization has been viewed as an important instrument for economic development and reducing regional income disparity in some developing countries, including China. Recent studies (Bloom et al. 2008) indicate that demographic urbanization level has no causal effect on economic growth. However, due to the varying and changing definition of urban population, the use of demographic indicators as a sole representing indicator for urbanization might be misleading. Here, we re-examine the causal relationship between urbanization and economic growth in Chinese cities and provinces in recent decades, using built-up areas as a landscape urbanization indicator. Our analysis shows that (1) larger cities, both in terms of population size and built-up area, and richer cities tend to gain more income, have larger built-up area expansion, and attract more population, than poorer cities or smaller cities; and (2) that there is a long-term bidirectional causality between urban built-up area expansion and GDP per capita at both city and provincial level, and a short-term bidirectional causality at provincial level, revealing a positive feedback between landscape urbanization and urban and regional economic growth in China. Our results suggest that urbanization, if measured by a landscape indicator, does have causal effect on economic growth in China, both within the city and with spillover effect to the region, and that urban land expansion is not only the consequences of economic growth in cities, but also drivers of such growth. The results also suggest that under its current economic growth model, it might be difficult for China to control urban expansion without sacrificing economic growth, and China's policy to stop the loss of agricultural land, for food security, might be challenged by its policy to promote economic growth through urbanization.

Landscape Urbanization and Economic Growth in China: Positive Feedbacks and Sustainability Dilemmas

PubMed Central

2011-01-01

Accelerating urbanization has been viewed as an important instrument for economic development and reducing regional income disparity in some developing countries, including China. Recent studies (Bloom et al. 2008) indicate that demographic urbanization level has no causal effect on economic growth. However, due to the varying and changing definition of urban population, the use of demographic indicators as a sole representing indicator for urbanization might be misleading. Here, we re-examine the causal relationship between urbanization and economic growth in Chinese cities and provinces in recent decades, using built-up areas as a landscape urbanization indicator. Our analysis shows that (1) larger cities, both in terms of population size and built-up area, and richer cities tend to gain more income, have larger built-up area expansion, and attract more population, than poorer cities or smaller cities; and (2) that there is a long-term bidirectional causality between urban built-up area expansion and GDP per capita at both city and provincial level, and a short-term bidirectional causality at provincial level, revealing a positive feedback between landscape urbanization and urban and regional economic growth in China. Our results suggest that urbanization, if measured by a landscape indicator, does have causal effect on economic growth in China, both within the city and with spillover effect to the region, and that urban land expansion is not only the consequences of economic growth in cities, but also drivers of such growth. The results also suggest that under its current economic growth model, it might be difficult for China to control urban expansion without sacrificing economic growth, and China’s policy to stop the loss of agricultural land, for food security, might be challenged by its policy to promote economic growth through urbanization. PMID:22103244

Tipping Points towards Regional Forest or Urban Transition in Stressed Rural Areas: An Agent-based Modelling Application of Socio-Economic Shifts in Rural Vermont US

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tsai, Y.; Turnbull, S.; Zia, A.

2015-12-01

In rural areas where farming competes with urban development and environmental amenities, urban and forest transitions occur simultaneously at different locales with different rates due to the underlying socio-economic shifts. Here we develop an interactive land use transition agent-based model (ILUTABM) in which farmers' land use decisions are made contingent on expansion and location choices of urban businesses and urban residences, as well as farmers' perceived ecosystem services produced by their land holdings. The ILUTABM simulates heterogeneity in land use decisions at parcel levels by differentiating decision making processes for agricultural and urban landowners. Landowners are simulated to make land-use transition decisions as bounded rational agents that maximize their partial expected utility functions under different underlying socio-economic conditions given the category of a landowner and the spatial characteristics of the landowner's landholdings. The ILUTABM is parameterized by spatial data sets such as National Land Cover Database (NLCD), zoning, parcels, property prices, US census, farmers surveys, building/facility characteristics, soil, slope and elevation. We then apply the ILUTABM to the rural Vermont landscape, located in the Northeast Arm District of Lake Champlain and the downstream sub-watersheds of Missisquoi River, to generate phase transitions of rural land towards urban land near peri-urban areas and towards forest land near financially stressed farmlands during 2001-2051. Possible tipping point trajectories of rural land towards regional forest or urban transition are simulated under three socio-economic scenarios: business as usual (ILUTABM calibrated to 2011 NLCD), increased incentives for conservation easements, and increased incentives for attracting urban residences and businesses.

Quantifying different types of urban growth and the change dynamic in Guangzhou using multi-temporal remote sensing data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sun, Cheng; Wu, Zhi-feng; Lv, Zhi-qiang; Yao, Na; Wei, Jian-bing

2013-04-01

There is a widespread concern about urban sprawl. It has negative impacts on natural resources, economic health, and community character. Without a universal definition of urban sprawl, its quantification and modeling is difficult. Traditionally, urban sprawl was described using qualitative terms, and landscape patterns. Quantitative methods are required to help local, regional and state land use planners to better identify, understand and address it. In this study, an integrated approach of remote sensing and GIS was used to identify three urban growth types of infilling growth, outlying growth and edge-expansion growth at the city of Guangzhou, China. Spatial metrics were used to characterize long-term trends and patterns of urban growth. Result shows that the proposed method can identify and visualize different urban growth types. Infilling growth is the dominant expansion type. Edge-expansion is concentrated at suburban areas. Outlying growth mainly occurs relatively far from the urban core. The analysis shows that initially the urban area expands mainly as outlying growth, causing increased fragmentation and dispersion of urban areas. Next, growth filled in vacant non-urban area inwards, resulting into a more compact and aggregated urban pattern. The study shows an improved understanding of urban growth, and helps to provide an effective way for urban planning.

The Impact of Greenspace on Thermal Comfort in a Residential Quarter of Beijing, China.

PubMed

Wu, Zhifeng; Kong, Fanhua; Wang, Yening; Sun, Ranhao; Chen, Liding

2016-12-08

With the process of urbanization, a large number of residential quarters, which is the main dwelling form in the urban area of Beijing, have been developed in last three decades to accommodate the rising population. In the context of intensification of urban heat island (UHI), the potential degradation of the thermal environment of residential quarters can give rise to a variety of problems affecting inhabitants' health. This paper reports the results of a numerical study of the thermal conditions of a residential quarter on a typical summertime day under four greening modification scenarios, characterized by different leaf area density (LAD) profiles. The modelling results demonstrated that vegetation could evidently reduce near-surface air temperature, with the combination of grass and mature trees achieving as much as 1.5 °C of air temperature decrease compared with the non-green scenario. Vegetation can also lead to smaller air temperature fluctuations, which contribute to a more stable microclimate. The Universal Thermal Climate Index (UTCI) was then calculated to represent the variation of thermal environment of the study area. While grass is helpful in improving outdoor thermal comfort, trees are more effective in reducing the duration and expansion of suffering from severe heat stress. The results of this study showed that proper maintenance of vegetation, especially trees, is significant to improving the outdoor thermal environment in the summer season. In consideration of the deficiency of the current code in the management of greenspace in residential areas, we hope the results reported here will help promote the improvement of the code and related regulations for greenspace management.

The Impact of Greenspace on Thermal Comfort in a Residential Quarter of Beijing, China

PubMed Central

Wu, Zhifeng; Kong, Fanhua; Wang, Yening; Sun, Ranhao; Chen, Liding

2016-01-01

With the process of urbanization, a large number of residential quarters, which is the main dwelling form in the urban area of Beijing, have been developed in last three decades to accommodate the rising population. In the context of intensification of urban heat island (UHI), the potential degradation of the thermal environment of residential quarters can give rise to a variety of problems affecting inhabitants’ health. This paper reports the results of a numerical study of the thermal conditions of a residential quarter on a typical summertime day under four greening modification scenarios, characterized by different leaf area density (LAD) profiles. The modelling results demonstrated that vegetation could evidently reduce near-surface air temperature, with the combination of grass and mature trees achieving as much as 1.5 °C of air temperature decrease compared with the non-green scenario. Vegetation can also lead to smaller air temperature fluctuations, which contribute to a more stable microclimate. The Universal Thermal Climate Index (UTCI) was then calculated to represent the variation of thermal environment of the study area. While grass is helpful in improving outdoor thermal comfort, trees are more effective in reducing the duration and expansion of suffering from severe heat stress. The results of this study showed that proper maintenance of vegetation, especially trees, is significant to improving the outdoor thermal environment in the summer season. In consideration of the deficiency of the current code in the management of greenspace in residential areas, we hope the results reported here will help promote the improvement of the code and related regulations for greenspace management. PMID:27941659

Conversion of prime agricultural land to urban land uses in Kansas City

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Shaklee, R. V.

1976-01-01

In an expanding urban environment, agriculture and urban land uses are the two primary competitors for regional land resources. As a result of an increasing awareness of the effects which urban expansion has upon the regional environment, the conversion of prime agricultural land to urban land uses has become a point of concern to urban planners. A study was undertaken for the Kansas City Metropolitan Region, to determine the rate at which prime agricultural land has been converted to urban land uses over a five year period from 1969 to 1974. Using NASA high altitude color infrared imagery acquired over the city in October, 1969 and in May, 1974 to monitor the extent and location of urban expansion in the interim period, it was revealed that 42% of that expansion had occurred upon land classified as having prime agricultural potential. This involved a total of 10,727 acres of prime agricultural land and indicated a 7% increase over the 1969 which showed that 35% of the urban area had been developed on prime agricultural land.

Electricity system expansion studies to consider uncertainties and interactions in restructured markets

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jin, Shan

This dissertation concerns power system expansion planning under different market mechanisms. The thesis follows a three paper format, in which each paper emphasizes a different perspective. The first paper investigates the impact of market uncertainties on a long term centralized generation expansion planning problem. The problem is modeled as a two-stage stochastic program with uncertain fuel prices and demands, which are represented as probabilistic scenario paths in a multi-period tree. Two measurements, expected cost (EC) and Conditional Value-at-Risk (CVaR), are used to minimize, respectively, the total expected cost among scenarios and the risk of incurring high costs in unfavorable scenarios. We sample paths from the scenario tree to reduce the problem scale and determine the sufficient number of scenarios by computing confidence intervals on the objective values. The second paper studies an integrated electricity supply system including generation, transmission and fuel transportation with a restructured wholesale electricity market. This integrated system expansion problem is modeled as a bi-level program in which a centralized system expansion decision is made in the upper level and the operational decisions of multiple market participants are made in the lower level. The difficulty of solving a bi-level programming problem to global optimality is discussed and three problem relaxations obtained by reformulation are explored. The third paper solves a more realistic market-based generation and transmission expansion problem. It focuses on interactions among a centralized transmission expansion decision and decentralized generation expansion decisions. It allows each generator to make its own strategic investment and operational decisions both in response to a transmission expansion decision and in anticipation of a market price settled by an Independent System Operator (ISO) market clearing problem. The model poses a complicated tri-level structure including an equilibrium problem with equilibrium constraints (EPEC) sub-problem. A hybrid iterative algorithm is proposed to solve the problem efficiently and reliably.

[Assessment on the ecological suitability in Zhuhai City, Guangdong, China, based on minimum cumulative resistance model].

PubMed

Li, Jian-fei; Li, Lin; Guo, Luo; Du, Shi-hong

2016-01-01

Urban landscape has the characteristics of spatial heterogeneity. Because the expansion process of urban constructive or ecological land has different resistance values, the land unit stimulates and promotes the expansion of ecological land with different intensity. To compare the effect of promoting and hindering functions in the same land unit, we firstly compared the minimum cumulative resistance value of promoting and hindering functions, and then looked for the balance of two landscape processes under the same standard. According to the ecology principle of minimum limit factor, taking the minimum cumulative resistance analysis method under two expansion processes as the evaluation method of urban land ecological suitability, this research took Zhuhai City as the study area to estimate urban ecological suitability by relative evaluation method with remote sensing image, field survey, and statistics data. With the support of ArcGIS, five types of indicators on landscape types, ecological value, soil erosion sensitivity, sensitivity of geological disasters, and ecological function were selected as input parameters in the minimum cumulative resistance model to compute urban ecological suitability. The results showed that the ecological suitability of the whole Zhuhai City was divided into five levels: constructive expansion prohibited zone (10.1%), constructive expansion restricted zone (32.9%), key construction zone (36.3%), priority development zone (2.3%), and basic cropland (18.4%). Ecological suitability of the central area of Zhuhai City was divided into four levels: constructive expansion prohibited zone (11.6%), constructive expansion restricted zone (25.6%), key construction zone (52.4%), priority development zone (10.4%). Finally, we put forward the sustainable development framework of Zhuhai City according to the research conclusion. On one hand, the government should strictly control the development of the urban center area. On the other hand, the secondary urban center area such as Junchang and Doumen need improve the public infrastructure to relieve the imbalance between eastern and western development in Zhuhai City.

Growth Scenarios for the City of Guangzhou, China: Transferability and Confirmability

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lehner, A.; Kraus, V.; Wei, C.; Steinnocher, K.

2016-09-01

This work deals with the development of urban growth scenarios and the prevision of the spatial distribution of built-up area and population for the urban area of the city of Guangzhou in China. Using freely-available data, including remotely sensed data as well as census data from the ground, expenditure of time and costs shall remain low. Guangzhou, one of the biggest cities within the Pearl River Delta, has faced an enormous economic and urban growth during the last three decades. Due to its economical and spatial characteristics it is a promising candidate for urban growth scenarios. The monitoring and prediction of urban growth comprises data of population and give them a spatial representation. The model, originally applied for the Indian city Ahmedabad, is used for urban growth scenarios. Therefore, transferability and confirmability of the model are evaluated. Challenges that may occur by transferring a model for urban growth from one region to another are discussed. With proposing the use of urban remote sensing and freely available data, urban planners shall be fitted with a comprehensible and simple tool to be able to contribute to the future challenge Smart Growth.

Modeling the Warming Impact of Urban Land Expansion on Hot Weather Using the Weather Research and Forecasting Model: A Case Study of Beijing, China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liu, Xiaojuan; Tian, Guangjin; Feng, Jinming; Ma, Bingran; Wang, Jun; Kong, Lingqiang

2018-06-01

The impacts of three periods of urban land expansion during 1990-2010 on near-surface air temperature in summer in Beijing were simulated in this study, and then the interrelation between heat waves and urban warming was assessed. We ran the sensitivity tests using the mesoscaleWeather Research and Forecasting model coupled with a single urban canopy model, as well as high-resolution land cover data. The warming area expanded approximately at the same scale as the urban land expansion. The average regional warming induced by urban expansion increased but the warming speed declined slightly during 2000-2010. The smallest warming occurred at noon and then increased gradually in the afternoon before peaking at around 2000 LST—the time of sunset. In the daytime, urban warming was primarily caused by the decrease in latent heat flux at the urban surface. Urbanization led to more ground heat flux during the day and then more release at night, which resulted in nocturnal warming. Urban warming at night was higher than that in the day, although the nighttime increment in sensible heat flux was smaller. This was because the shallower planetary boundary layer at night reduced the release efficiency of near-surface heat. The simulated results also suggested that heat waves or high temperature weather enhanced urban warming intensity at night. Heat waves caused more heat to be stored in the surface during the day, greater heat released at night, and thus higher nighttime warming. Our results demonstrate a positive feedback effect between urban warming and heat waves in urban areas.

Assessing the impact of the urbanization process on net primary productivity in China in 1989-2000.

PubMed

Tian, Guangjin; Qiao, Zhi

2014-01-01

Urban development affects the material circulation and energy flow of ecosystems, thereby affecting the Net Primary Productivity (NPP). The loss of NPP due to urban expansion was calculated integrating GLO-PEM with remote sensing and GIS techniques in China during the period of 1989-2000. Using urban expansion and the mean NPP for the different land use types in the fourteen regions, the total loss of NPP was calculated as 0.95 Tg C, which accounted for 0.03% of the national NPP of 1989. The total loss of NPP due to the transformation from cropland to urban land accounted for 91.93%, followed by forest (7.17%) and grassland (0.69%). However, the conversion from unused land, industrial and construction land, and water bodies to urban land resulted in an increase in the NPP. The regions locating in eastern China and middle China had large reductions in the total NPP due to urban expansion. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Land Use and Land Cover Change Modeling Using Remote Sensing and Soft Computing Approach to Assess Sugarcane Expansion Impacts in Tropical Agriculture

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vicente, L. E.; Koga-Vicente, A.; Friedel, M. J.; Victoria, D.; Zullo, J., Jr.; Gomes, D.; Bayma-Silva, G.

2014-12-01

Agriculture is related with land-use/cover changes (LUCC) over large areas and, in recent years, increase in demand of ethanol fuel has been influence in expansion of areas occupied with corn and sugar cane, raw material for ethanol production. Nevertheless, there´s a concern regarding the impacts on food security, such as, decrease in areas planted with food crops. Considering that the LUCC is highly dynamic, the use of Remote Sensing is a tool for monitoring changes quickly and precisely in order to provide information for agricultural planning. In this work, Remote Sensing techniques were used to monitor the LUCC occurred in municipalities of São Paulo state- Brazil related with sugarcane crops expansion in order to (i) evaluate and quantify the previous land cover in areas of sugarcane crop expansion, and (ii) provide information to elaborate a future land cover scenario based on Self Organizing Map (SOM) approach. The land cover classification procedure was based on Landsat 5 TM images, obtained from the Global Land Survey. The Landsat images were then segmented into homogeneous objects, with represent areas on the ground with similar spatial and spectral characteristics. These objects are related to the distinct land cover types that occur in each municipality. The segmentation procedure resulted in polygons over the three time periods along twenty years (1990-2010). The land cover for each object was visually identified, based on its shape, texture and spectral characteristics. Land cover types considered were: sugarcane plantations, pasture lands, natural cover, forest plantation, permanent crop, short cycle crop, water bodies and urban areas. SOM technique was used to estimate the values for the future land cover scenarios for the selected municipalities, using the information of land change provided by the remote sensing and data from official sources.

Modelling regional climate change and urban planning scenarios and their impacts on the urban environment in two cities with WRF-ACASA

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Falk, M.; Pyles, R. D.; Marras, S.; Spano, D.; Paw U, K. T.

2011-12-01

The number of urban metabolism studies has increased in recent years, due to the important impact that energy, water and carbon exchange over urban areas have on climate change. Urban modeling is therefore crucial in the future design and management of cities. This study presents the ACASA model coupled to the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF-ARW) mesoscale model to simulate urban fluxes at a horizontal resolution of 200 meters for urban areas of roughly 100 km^2. As part of the European Project "BRIDGE", these regional simulations were used in combination with remotely sensed data to provide constraints on the land surface types and the exchange of carbon and energy fluxes from urban centers. Surface-atmosphere exchanges of mass and energy were simulated using the Advanced Canopy Atmosphere Soil Algorithm (ACASA). ACASA is a multi-layer high-order closure model, recently modified to work over natural, agricultural as well as urban environments. In particular, improvements were made to account for the anthropogenic contribution to heat and carbon production. For two cities four climate change and four urban planning scenarios were simulated: The climate change scenarios include a base scenario (Sc0: 2008 Commit in IPCC), a medium emission scenario (Sc1: IPCC A2), a worst case emission scenario (Sce2: IPCC A1F1) and finally a best case emission scenario (Sce3: IPCC B1). The urban planning scenarios include different development scenarios such as smart growth. The two cities are a high latitude city, Helsinki (Finland) and an historic city, Florence (Italy). Helsinki is characterized by recent, rapid urbanization that requires a substantial amount of energy for heating, while Florence is representative of cities in lower latitudes, with substantial cultural heritage and a comparatively constant architectural footprint over time. In general, simulated fluxes matched the point observations well and showed consistent improvement in the energy partitioning over urban regions. We present comparisons of observed (EC) tower flux observations from the Florence (Ximeniano) site for 1-9 April, 2008 with results from two sets of high-resolution simulations: the first using dynamically-downscaled input/boundary conditions (Model-0) and the second using fully nested WRF-ACASA (Model-1). In each simulation the model physics are the same; only the WRF domain configuration differs. Preliminary results (Figure 1) indicate a degree of parity (and a slight statistical improvement), in the performances of Model-1 vs. that of Model-0 with respect to observed. Figure 1 (below) shows air temperature values from observed and both model estimates. Additional results indicate that care must be taken to configure the WRF domain, as performance appears to be sensitive to model configuration.

Urban expansion in the forests of the Puget Sound region.

Treesearch

Colin D. MacLean; Charles L. Bolsinger

1997-01-01

As part of a 1979 forest resource inventory, over 9,000 points on aerial photographs were sorted into three development zones-primary forest, suburban, and urban. These same points were reexamined in 1989, and zone changes were noted. This report summarizes urban expansion into the primary forest lands of the Puget Sound region (Island, King, Kitsap, Pierce, San Juan,...

The influence of satellite populations of emerald ash borer on projected economic costs in U.S. communities, 2010-2020.

PubMed

Kovacs, Kent F; Mercader, Rodrigo J; Haight, Robert G; Siegert, Nathan W; McCullough, Deborah G; Liebhold, Andrew M

2011-09-01

The invasion spread of the emerald ash borer (Agrilus planipennis Fairmaire) (Coleoptera: Buprestidae) is characterized by the formation of satellite populations that expand and coalesce with the continuously invading population front. As of January 2010, satellite infestations have been detected in 13 states and two Canadian provinces. Understanding how newly established satellite populations may affect economic costs can help program managers to justify and design prevention and control strategies. We estimate the economic costs caused by EAB for the 10-yr period from 2010 to 2020 for scenarios of fewer EAB satellite populations than those found from 2005 to 2010 and slower expansion of satellite populations found in 2009. We measure the projected discounted cost of treatment, removal, and replacement of ash trees (Fraxinus spp.) growing in managed landscapes in U.S. communities. Estimated costs for the base scenario with the full complement of satellites in 2005-2010 and no program to mitigate spread is $12.5 billion. Fewer EAB satellites from 2005 to 2010 delay economic costs of $1.0 to 7.4 billion. Slower expansion of 2009 satellite populations delays economic costs of $0.1 to 0.7 billion. Satellite populations that are both distant from the core EAB infestation and close to large urban areas caused more economic costs in our simulations than did other satellites. Our estimates of delayed economic costs suggest that spending on activities that prevent establishment of new satellite EAB populations or slow expansion of existing populations can be cost-effective and that continued research on the cost and effectiveness of prevention and control activities is warranted. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

A Century of the Evolution of the Urban Area in Shenyang, China

PubMed Central

Liu, Miao; Xu, Yanyan; Hu, Yuanman; Li, Chunlin; Sun, Fengyun; Chen, Tan

2014-01-01

Analyzing spatiotemporal characteristics of the historical urbanization process is essential in understanding the dynamics of urbanization and scientifically planned urban development. Based on historical urban area maps and remote sensing images, this study examined the urban expansion of Shenyang from 1910 to 2010 using area statistics, typology identification, and landscape metrics approaches. The population and gross domestic product were analyzed as driving factors. The results showed that the urban area of Shenyang increased 43.39-fold during the study period and that the growth rate has accelerated since the 1980s. Three urban growth types were distinguished: infilling, edge-expansion, and spontaneous growth. Edge-expansion was the primary growth type. Infilling growth became the main growth type in the periods 1946–70, 1988–97, and 2004–10. Spontaneous growth was concentrated in the period of 1997 to 2000. The results of landscape metrics indicate that the urban landscape of Shenyang originally was highly aggregated, but has become increasingly fragmented. The urban fringe area was the traditional hot zone of urbanization. Shenyang was mainly located north of the Hun River before 1980; however, the south side of the river has been the hot zone of urbanization since the 1980s. The increase of urban area strongly correlated with the growth of GDP and population. Over a long time scale, the urbanization process has been affected by major historical events. PMID:24893167

Future land-use change emissions: CO2, BVOC and wildfire

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Arneth, A.; Knorr, W.; Hantson, S.; Anthoni, P.; Szogs, S.

2015-12-01

Historical land-use (LUC) change is known to have been a large source of CO2 emissions, mostly from deforestation: the equivalent of around 1/3 of today's CO2 in the atmosphere arises from LUC. And LUC will continue into the future, although the expected area change, the type of LUC (deforestation vs. afforestation/reforestation) and regions where the LUC will take place will differ greatly, depending on the future scenario. But LUC is not only of importance for projecting emissions of CO2. It also affects greatly emissions of biogenic volatile organic carbon, and from wildfires - all of which are important for the quantification of precursor substances relevant to air quality, and interactions with climate change. We show here that accounting for future socio-economic developments and LUC scenarios has the potential to override climate change and effects of CO2 fertilisation on fire and BVOC emission, regionally and in some cases also globally. Simulation experiments with the dynamic global vegetation model LPJ-GUESS will be performed, covering the 20th and 21st century, and assessing a rage of future population growth, LUC and climate change scenarios. For wildfire emissions, we find that burned area and emissions depend greatly on the type of population growth scenario, and on the distribution of urban vs rural population. BVOC emissions depend greatly on the amount and location of deforestation vs the region and magnitude of forest expansion in response to warming, such as through expansion of vegetation in the northern hemisphere, and via reforestation/afforestation. LUC so far has not been given sufficient attention for simulations of future air quality-climate interactions. In terms of terrestrial precursor emissions of atmospherically reactive substances our simulations clearly demonstrate the importance of including LUC in combination with vegetation that responds dynamically to changes in climate and atmospheric CO2 levels.

Linking GIS-based models to value ecosystem services in an Alpine region.

PubMed

Grêt-Regamey, Adrienne; Bebi, Peter; Bishop, Ian D; Schmid, Willy A

2008-11-01

Planning frequently fails to include the valuation of public goods and services. This can have long-term negative economic consequences for a region. This is especially the case in mountainous regions such as the Alps, which depend on tourism and where land-use changes can negatively impact key ecosystem services and hence the economy. In this study, we develop a semi-automatic procedure to value ecosystem goods and services. Several existing process-based models linked to economic valuation methods are integrated into a geographic information system (GIS) platform. The model requires the input of a digital elevation model, a land-cover map, and a spatially explicit temperature dataset. These datasets are available for most regions in Europe. We illustrate the approach by valuing four ecosystem services: avalanche protection, timber production, scenic beauty, and habitat, which are supplied by the "Landschaft Davos", an administrative district in the Swiss Alps. We compare the impacts of a human development scenario and a climate scenario on the value of these ecosystem services. Urban expansion and tourist infrastructure developments have a negative impact on scenic beauty and habitats. These impacts outweigh the benefits of the developments in the long-term. Forest expansion, predictable under a climate change scenario, favours natural avalanche protection and habitats. In general, such non-marketed benefits provided by the case-study region more than compensate for the costs of forest maintenance. Finally, we discuss the advantages and disadvantages of the approach. Despite its limitations, we show how this approach could well help decision-makers balance the impacts of different planning options on the economic accounting of a region, and guide them in selecting sustainable and economically feasible development strategies.

Impact of urban WWTP and CSO fluxes on river peak flow extremes under current and future climate conditions.

PubMed

Keupers, Ingrid; Willems, Patrick

2013-01-01

The impact of urban water fluxes on the river system outflow of the Grote Nete catchment (Belgium) was studied. First the impact of the Waste Water Treatment Plant (WWTP) and the Combined Sewer Overflow (CSO) outflows on the river system for the current climatic conditions was determined by simulating the urban fluxes as point sources in a detailed, hydrodynamic river model. Comparison was made of the simulation results on peak flow extremes with and without the urban point sources. In a second step, the impact of climate change scenarios on the urban fluxes and the consequent impacts on the river flow extremes were studied. It is shown that the change in the 10-year return period hourly peak flow discharge due to climate change (-14% to +45%) was in the same order of magnitude as the change due to the urban fluxes (+5%) in current climate conditions. Different climate change scenarios do not change the impact of the urban fluxes much except for the climate scenario that involves a strong increase in rainfall extremes in summer. This scenario leads to a strong increase of the impact of the urban fluxes on the river system.

The Impact of Urban Growth and Climate Change on Heat Stress in an Australian City

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chapman, S.; Mcalpine, C. A.; Thatcher, M. J.; Salazar, A.; Watson, J. R.

2017-12-01

Over half of the world's population lives in urban areas. Most people will therefore be exposed to climate change in an urban environment. One of the climate risks facing urban residents is heat stress, which can lead to illness and death. Urban residents are at increased risk of heat stress due to the urban heat island effect. The urban heat island is a modification of the urban environment and increases temperatures on average by 2°C, though the increase can be much higher, up to 8°C when wind speeds and cloud cover are low. The urban heat island is also expected to increase in the future due to urban growth and intensification, further exacerbating urban heat stress. Climate change alters the urban heat island due to changes in weather (wind speed and cloudiness) and evapotranspiration. Future urban heat stress will therefore be affected by urban growth and climate change. The aim of this study was to examine the impact of urban growth and climate change on the urban heat island and heat stress in Brisbane, Australia. We used CCAM, the conformal cubic atmospheric model developed by the CSIRO, to examine temperatures in Brisbane using scenarios of urban growth and climate change. We downscaled the urban climate using CCAM, based on bias corrected Sea Surface Temperatures from the ACCESS1.0 projection of future climate. We used Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 8.5 for the periods 1990 - 2000, 2049 - 2060 and 2089 - 2090 with current land use and an urban growth scenario. The present day climatology was verified using weather station data from the Australian Bureau of Meteorology. We compared the urban heat island of the present day with the urban heat island with climate change to determine if climate change altered the heat island. We also calculated heat stress using wet-bulb globe temperature and apparent temperature for the climate change and base case scenarios. We found the urban growth scenario increased present day temperatures by 0.5°C in the inner city and by 6°C during a period of hot days. The scenarios of future temperature are ongoing and will show how heat stress will change in Brisbane when both urban growth and climate change are considered.

Medicaid Expansion Under the Affordable Care Act and Insurance Coverage in Rural and Urban Areas.

PubMed

Soni, Aparna; Hendryx, Michael; Simon, Kosali

2017-04-01

To analyze the differential rural-urban impacts of the Affordable Care Act Medicaid expansion on low-income childless adults' health insurance coverage. Using data from the American Community Survey years 2011-2015, we conducted a difference-in-differences regression analysis to test for changes in the probability of low-income childless adults having insurance in states that expanded Medicaid versus states that did not expand, in rural versus urban areas. Analyses employed survey weights, adjusted for covariates, and included a set of falsification tests as well as sensitivity analyses. Medicaid expansion under the Affordable Care Act increased the probability of Medicaid coverage for targeted populations in rural and urban areas, with a significantly greater increase in rural areas (P < .05), but some of these gains were offset by reductions in individual purchased insurance among rural populations (P < .01). Falsification tests showed that the insurance increases were specific to low-income childless adults, as expected, and were largely insignificant for other populations. The Medicaid expansion increased the probability of having "any insurance" for the pooled urban and rural low-income populations, and it specifically increased Medicaid coverage more in rural versus urban populations. There was some evidence that the expansion was accompanied by some shifting from individual purchased insurance to Medicaid in rural areas, and there is a need for future work to understand the implications of this shift on expenditures, access to care and utilization. © 2017 National Rural Health Association.

Fine-resolution Modeling of Urban-Energy Systems' Water Footprint in River Networks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

McManamay, R.; Surendran Nair, S.; Morton, A.; DeRolph, C.; Stewart, R.

2015-12-01

Characterizing the interplay between urbanization, energy production, and water resources is essential for ensuring sustainable population growth. In order to balance limited water supplies, competing users must account for their realized and virtual water footprint, i.e. the total direct and indirect amount of water used, respectively. Unfortunately, publicly reported US water use estimates are spatially coarse, temporally static, and completely ignore returns of water to rivers after use. These estimates are insufficient to account for the high spatial and temporal heterogeneity of water budgets in urbanizing systems. Likewise, urbanizing areas are supported by competing sources of energy production, which also have heterogeneous water footprints. Hence, a fundamental challenge of planning for sustainable urban growth and decision-making across disparate policy sectors lies in characterizing inter-dependencies among urban systems, energy producers, and water resources. A modeling framework is presented that provides a novel approach to integrate urban-energy infrastructure into a spatial accounting network that accurately measures water footprints as changes in the quantity and quality of river flows. River networks (RNs), i.e. networks of branching tributaries nested within larger rivers, provide a spatial structure to measure water budgets by modeling hydrology and accounting for use and returns from urbanizing areas and energy producers. We quantify urban-energy water footprints for Atlanta, GA and Knoxville, TN (USA) based on changes in hydrology in RNs. Although water intakes providing supply to metropolitan areas were proximate to metropolitan areas, power plants contributing to energy demand in Knoxville and Atlanta, occurred 30 and 90km outside the metropolitan boundary, respectively. Direct water footprints from urban landcover primarily comprised smaller streams whereas indirect footprints from water supply reservoirs and energy producers included larger river systems. By using projections in urban populations for 2030 and 2050, we estimated scenarios of expansion in water footprints depending on urban growth policies and energy production technology. We provide examples of how this framework can be used to minimize water footprints and impacts to aquatic biodiversity.

Understanding and Predicting Urban Propagation Losses

DTIC Science & Technology

2009-09-01

6. Extended Hata Model ..........................22 7. Modified Hata Model ..........................22 8. Walfisch – Ikegami Model...39 4. COST (Extended) Hata Model ...................40 5. Modified Hata Model ..........................41 6. Walfisch- Ikegami Model...47 1. Scenario One – Walfisch- Ikegami Model ........51 2. Scenario Two – Modified Hata Model ...........52 3. Scenario Three – Urban Hata

Charter School Expansion and within District Equity: Confluence or Conflict?

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Baker, Bruce D.; Libby, Ken; Wiley, Kathryn

2015-01-01

This article explores whether two popular policy initiatives are compatible or conflicting strategies for enhancing educational equality in diverse large urban centers. These two initiatives are (1) charter school expansion and (2) improvement of resource equity across urban public school systems through policies often referred to as weighted…

Landscape scale assessment of ecosystem goods and services and the extent, location, and magnitude of urban-suburban expansion

EPA Science Inventory

Human development adjoining coastal cities is the prevalent force changing the Anthropocene landscape. The extent, location, and magnitude of urban-suburban expansion can drastically modify how important features of ecosystems are effected. These effects are best summarized usin...

Recent Changes in Health Insurance Coverage for Urban and Rural Veterans: Evidence from the First Year of the Affordable Care Act.

PubMed

Boudreaux, Michel; Barath, Deanna; Blewett, Lynn A

2018-04-25

Prior to the Affordable Care Act, as many as 1.3 million veterans lacked health insurance. With the passage of the Affordable Care Act, veterans now have new pathways to coverage through Medicaid expansion in those states that chose to expand Medicaid and through private coverage options offered through the Health Insurance Marketplace. We examined the impact of the ACA on health insurance coverage for veterans in expansion and non-expansion states and for urban and rural veterans. We examined changes in veterans' health insurance coverage following the first year of the ACA, focusing on whether they lived in an urban or rural area and whether they live in a Medicaid expansion state. We used data on approximately 200,000 non-elderly community-dwelling veterans, obtained from the 2013-2014 American Community Survey and estimated differences in the adjusted probability of being uninsured between 2013 and 2014 for both urban and rural areas. Adjusted probabilities were computed by fitting logistic regressions controlling for age, gender, race, marital status, poverty status, education, and employment. There were an estimated 10.1 million U.S. non-elderly veterans in 2013; 82% lived in predominantly urban areas (8.3 million), and the remaining 18% (1.8 million) lived in predominately rural areas. Most veterans lived in the South (43.6%), and rural veterans were more likely to be Southerners than their urban counterparts. On every marker of economic well-being, rural veterans fared worse than urban veterans. They had a statistically significant higher chance of having incomes below 138% of FPG (20.0% versus 17.0%), of being out of the labor force (29.1% versus 23.0%), and of having no more than a high school education (39.6% versus 28.8%). Rural veterans were also more likely to experience at least one functional limitation. Overall, veterans in Medicaid expansion states experienced a significantly larger increase in insurance compared to veterans living in non-expansion states. For rural veterans in Medicaid expansion states, the increase in insurance was 3.5 percentage points, compared with 1.2 percentage points in non-expansion states. Our analysis found a substantial 24% relative decline in the rate of uninsurance for U.S. Veterans, from 9.3 to 7.1% between 2013 and 2014. We found that coverage gains in rural areas were due to gains in Medicaid and individual market coverage. Residence in a Medicaid expansion state was particularly influential for rural veterans - the increase in the insured rate was three times larger in Medicaid expansion states versus non-expansion states. The ACA has had a positive and significant impact on the ability of U.S. Veterans to obtain health insurance coverage specifically for low-income veterans living in rural areas. The poverty rate among Veterans is rising and is particularly an issue for the more recent Gulf War veterans. Providing affordable and accessible health insurance options is part of our commitment to those who have served our country. Our analysis also presents yet another reason for the 17 non-expansion states to consider a Medicaid expansion.

Active and legacy mining in an arid urban environment: challenges and perspectives for Copiapó, Northern Chile.

PubMed

Carkovic, Athena B; Calcagni, Magdalena S; Vega, Alejandra S; Coquery, Marina; Moya, Pablo M; Bonilla, Carlos A; Pastén, Pablo A

2016-08-01

Urban expansion in areas of active and legacy mining imposes a sustainability challenge, especially in arid environments where cities compete for resources with agriculture and industry. The city of Copiapó, with 150,000 inhabitants in the Atacama Desert, reflects this challenge. More than 30 abandoned tailings from legacy mining are scattered throughout its urban and peri-urban area, which include an active copper smelter. Despite the public concern generated by the mining-related pollution, no geochemical information is currently available for Copiapó, particularly for metal concentration in environmental solid phases. A geochemical screening of soils (n = 42), street dusts (n = 71) and tailings (n = 68) was conducted in November 2014 and April 2015. Organic matter, pH and elemental composition measurements were taken. Notably, copper in soils (60-2120 mg/kg) and street dusts (110-10,200 mg/kg) consistently exceeded international guidelines for residential and industrial use, while a lower proportion of samples exceeded international guidelines for arsenic, zinc and lead. Metal enrichment occurred in residential, industrial and agricultural areas near tailings and the copper smelter. This first screening of metal contamination sets the basis for future risk assessments toward defining knowledge-based policies and urban planning. Challenges include developing: (1) adequate intervention guideline values; (2) appropriate geochemical background levels for key metals; (3) urban planning that considers contaminated areas; (4) cost-effective control strategies for abandoned tailings in water-scarce areas; and (5) scenarios and technologies for tailings reprocessing. Assessing urban geochemical risks is a critical endeavor for areas where extreme events triggered by climate change are likely, as the mud flooding that impacted Copiapó in late March 2015.

Urban adaptation can roll back warming of emerging megapolitan regions

PubMed Central

Georgescu, Matei; Morefield, Philip E.; Bierwagen, Britta G.; Weaver, Christopher P.

2014-01-01

Modeling results incorporating several distinct urban expansion futures for the United States in 2100 show that, in the absence of any adaptive urban design, megapolitan expansion, alone and separate from greenhouse gas-induced forcing, can be expected to raise near-surface temperatures 1–2 °C not just at the scale of individual cities but over large regional swaths of the country. This warming is a significant fraction of the 21st century greenhouse gas-induced climate change simulated by global climate models. Using a suite of regional climate simulations, we assessed the efficacy of commonly proposed urban adaptation strategies, such as green, cool roof, and hybrid approaches, to ameliorate the warming. Our results quantify how judicious choices in urban planning and design cannot only counteract the climatological impacts of the urban expansion itself but also, can, in fact, even offset a significant percentage of future greenhouse warming over large scales. Our results also reveal tradeoffs among different adaptation options for some regions, showing the need for geographically appropriate strategies rather than one size fits all solutions. PMID:24516126

The drivers of tropical deforestation: a comprehensive review

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sanford, T. J.; Boucher, D.; Elias, P.; Lininger, K.; May-Tobin, C.; Roquemore, S.; Saxon, E.; Martin, J.; Mulik, K.

2011-12-01

Tropical forests are disappearing around the world. This clearing causes around 15% of global carbon emissions, leads to the rapid loss of biodiversity, and destroys the livelihoods of many indigenous peoples. We comprehensively reviewed the literature on drivers of tropical deforestation and found a number of trends. While deforestation was predominately driven by small farmers and government action in the 1970s and 1980s, since the 1990s most deforestation has been driven by large scale commercial agriculture. In Latin America, and Brazil in particular, forest clearing has mostly been due to expansion of cattle pastures and for a period in the late 1990s and early 2000s soy bean expansion. In Southeast Asia, deforestation has mainly been due to expansion of oil palm plantations and timber harvesting. In Africa small farmers and wood fuel collection still play a role, although deforestation rates are considerably lower there than in other regions. Additionally, increased urbanization and trends toward a diet based on meat, particularly beef, have help drive deforestation. Biofuels policies around the world are also adding demand, both directly for vegetable oil, and by expanding demand for competing crops such as corn. We examine the extent to which biofuels demand directly and indirectly acts as a driver of deforestation, and the policies that can mitigate this problem by analyzing alternative scenarios of biofuel expansion and their impact on land use change, commodity prices and green house gas emissions.

Impact of future urban growth on regional climate changes in the Seoul Metropolitan Area, Korea.

PubMed

Kim, Hyunsu; Kim, Yoo-Keun; Song, Sang-Keun; Lee, Hwa Woon

2016-11-15

The influence of changes in future urban growth (e.g., land use changes) on the future climate variability in the Seoul metropolitan area (SMA), Korea was evaluated using the WRF model and an urban growth model (SLEUTH). The land use changes in the study area were simulated using the SLEUTH model under three different urban growth scenarios: (1) current development trends scenario (SC 1), (2) managed development scenario (SC 2) and (3) ecological development scenario (SC 3). The maximum difference in the ratio of urban growth between SC 1 and SC 3 (SC 1 - SC 3) for 50years (2000-2050) was approximately 6.72%, leading to the largest differences (0.01°C and 0.03ms(-1), respectively) in the mean air temperature at 2m (T2) and wind speed at 10m (WS10). From WRF-SLEUTH modeling, the effects of future urban growth (or future land use changes) in the SMA are expected to result in increases in the spatial mean T2 and WS10 of up to 1.15°C and 0.03ms(-1), respectively, possibly due to thermal circulation caused by the thermal differences between urban and rural regions. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Building Capacity in Urban Sustainability Assessment through Use of a Scenarios Game

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Taylor, Rhys E.; Rutledge, Daniel T.; van Roon, Henri

2011-01-01

Urban form, the patterns of cities, in New Zealand is explored 50 years into the future through a scenarios game, published on the Internet. Four diverse scenarios provide a means to explore the present situation and envision how it may change over time with different trend drivers. Wild card events introduce uncertainty in a way that resonates…

Population growth, urban expansion, and private forestry in western Oregon.

Treesearch

Jeffrey D. Kline; David L. Azuma; Ralph J. Alig

2004-01-01

Private forestlands in the United States face increasing pressures from growing populations, resulting in greater numbers of people living in closer proximity to forests. What often is called the "wildland/urban interface" is characterized by expansion of residential and other developed land uses onto forested landscapes in a manner that threatens forestlands...

Accuracy Analysis and Parameters Optimization in Urban Flood Simulation by PEST Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Keum, H.; Han, K.; Kim, H.; Ha, C.

2017-12-01

The risk of urban flooding has been increasing due to heavy rainfall, flash flooding and rapid urbanization. Rainwater pumping stations, underground reservoirs are used to actively take measures against flooding, however, flood damage from lowlands continues to occur. Inundation in urban areas has resulted in overflow of sewer. Therefore, it is important to implement a network system that is intricately entangled within a city, similar to the actual physical situation and accurate terrain due to the effects on buildings and roads for accurate two-dimensional flood analysis. The purpose of this study is to propose an optimal scenario construction procedure watershed partitioning and parameterization for urban runoff analysis and pipe network analysis, and to increase the accuracy of flooded area prediction through coupled model. The establishment of optimal scenario procedure was verified by applying it to actual drainage in Seoul. In this study, optimization was performed by using four parameters such as Manning's roughness coefficient for conduits, watershed width, Manning's roughness coefficient for impervious area, Manning's roughness coefficient for pervious area. The calibration range of the parameters was determined using the SWMM manual and the ranges used in the previous studies, and the parameters were estimated using the automatic calibration method PEST. The correlation coefficient showed a high correlation coefficient for the scenarios using PEST. The RPE and RMSE also showed high accuracy for the scenarios using PEST. In the case of RPE, error was in the range of 13.9-28.9% in the no-parameter estimation scenarios, but in the scenario using the PEST, the error range was reduced to 6.8-25.7%. Based on the results of this study, it can be concluded that more accurate flood analysis is possible when the optimum scenario is selected by determining the appropriate reference conduit for future urban flooding analysis and if the results is applied to various rainfall event scenarios and parameter optimization. Keywords: Parameters Optimization; PEST model; Urban area Acknowledgement This research was supported by a grant (17AWMP-B079625-04) from Water Management Research Program funded by Ministry of Land, Infrastructure and Transport of Korean government.

Urban Impact Assessment and Adaptation Strategies to Climate Change in Europe: A Case Study for Antwerp, Berlin and Almada

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Stevens, Catherine; Thomas, Bart

2014-05-01

Climate change is driven by global processes such as the global ocean circulation and its variability over time leading to changing weather patterns on regional scales as well as changes in the severity and occurrence of extreme events such as heat waves. For example, the summer 2003 European heat wave caused up to 70.000 excess deaths over four months in Central and Western Europe. As around 75% of Europe's population resides in urban areas, it is of particular relevance to examine the impact of seasonal to decadal-scale climate variability on urban areas and their populations. This study aims at downscaling the spatially coarse resolution CMIP5 climate predictions to the local urban scale and investigating the relation between heat waves and the urban-rural temperature increment (urban heat island effect). The resulting heat stress effect is not only driven by climatic variables but also impacted by urban morphology. Moreover, the exposure varies significantly with the geographical location. All this information is coupled with relevant socio-economic datasets such as population density, age structure, etc. focussing on human health. The analyses are conducted in the framework of the NACLIM FP7 project funded by the European Commission involving local stakeholders such as the cities of Antwerp (BE), Berlin (DE) and Almada (PT) represented by different climate and urban characteristics. The end-user needs have been consolidated in a climate services plan including the production of heat risk exposure maps and the analysis of various scenarios considering e.g. the uncertainty of the global climate predictions, urban expansion over time and the impact of mitigation measures such as green roofs. The results of this study will allow urban planners and policy makers facing the challenges of climate change and develop sound strategies for the design and management of climate resilient cities.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Aden, Nathaniel T.; Zheng, Nina; Fridley, David G.

Urbanization has re-shaped China's economy, society, and energy system. Between 1990 and 2007 China added 290 million new urban residents, bringing the total urbanization rate to 45%. This population adjustment spurred energy demand for construction of new buildings and infrastructure, as well as additional residential use as rural biomass was replaced with urban commercial energy services. Primary energy demand grew at an average annual rate of 10% between 2000 and 2007. Urbanization's effect on energy demand was compounded by the boom in domestic infrastructure investment, and in the export trade following World Trade Organization (WTO) accession in 2001. Industry energymore » consumption was most directly affected by this acceleration. Whereas industry comprised 32% of 2007 U.S. energy use, it accounted for 75% of China's 2007 energy consumption. Five sub-sectors accounted for 78% of China's industry energy use in 2007: iron and steel, energy extraction and processing, chemicals, cement, and non-ferrous metals. Ferrous metals alone accounted for 25% of industry and 18% of total primary energy use. The rapid growth of heavy industry has led China to become by far the world's largest producer of steel, cement, aluminum, and other energy-intensive commodities. However, the energy efficiency of heavy industrial production continues to lag world best practice levels. This study uses scenario analysis to quantify the impact of urbanization and trade on industrial and residential energy consumption from 2000 to 2025. The BAU scenario assumed 67% urbanization, frozen export amounts of heavy industrial products, and achievement of world best practices by 2025. The China Lightens Up (CLU) scenario assumed 55% urbanization, zero net exports of heavy industrial products, and more aggressive efficiency improvements by 2025. The five dominant industry sub-sectors were modeled in both scenarios using a LEAP energy end-use accounting model. The results of this study show that a CLU-style development path would avoid 430 million tonnes coal-equivalent energy use by 2025. More than 60% of these energy savings would come from reduced activity and production levels. In carbon terms, this would amount to more than a billion-tonne reduction of energy-related carbon emissions compared with the BAU scenario in 2025, though the absolute level of emissions rises in both scenarios. Aside from the energy and carbon savings related to CLU scenario development, this study showed impending saturation effects in commercial construction, urban appliance ownership, and fertilizer application. The implication of these findings is that urbanization will have a direct impact on future energy use and emissions - policies to guide urban growth can play a central role in China's efforts to mitigate emissions growth.« less

Uncertainty analyses of CO2 plume expansion subsequent to wellbore CO2 leakage into aquifers

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Hou, Zhangshuan; Bacon, Diana H.; Engel, David W.

2014-08-01

In this study, we apply an uncertainty quantification (UQ) framework to CO2 sequestration problems. In one scenario, we look at the risk of wellbore leakage of CO2 into a shallow unconfined aquifer in an urban area; in another scenario, we study the effects of reservoir heterogeneity on CO2 migration. We combine various sampling approaches (quasi-Monte Carlo, probabilistic collocation, and adaptive sampling) in order to reduce the number of forward calculations while trying to fully explore the input parameter space and quantify the input uncertainty. The CO2 migration is simulated using the PNNL-developed simulator STOMP-CO2e (the water-salt-CO2 module). For computationally demandingmore » simulations with 3D heterogeneity fields, we combined the framework with a scalable version module, eSTOMP, as the forward modeling simulator. We built response curves and response surfaces of model outputs with respect to input parameters, to look at the individual and combined effects, and identify and rank the significance of the input parameters.« less

Modelling potential landscape sediment delivery due to projected soybean expansion: a scenario study of the Balsas sub-basin, Cerrado, Maranhão state, Brazil.

PubMed

Barreto, Larissa; Schoorl, Jeroen M; Kok, Kasper; Veldkamp, Tom; Hass, Adriani

2013-01-30

In Brazil, agriculture expansion is taking place primarily in the Cerrado ecosystems. With the aim of supporting policy development and protecting the natural environment at relevant hotspots, a scenario study was conducted that concerned not only land-use change, but also the resulting effects on erosion and deposition. This coupled approach helped to evaluate potential landscape impacts of the land-use scenarios. In the study area, the Balsas sub-basin in Maranhão State, a model chain was used to model plausible future soybean expansion locations (CLUE-S model) and resulting sediment mobilization patterns (LAPSUS model) for a business-as-usual scenario. In the scenario, more erosion occurred in areas where the conversion of natural vegetation into soybean cultivation is likely to take place, but the generated sediments tended to accumulate mainly within the conversion areas, thus limiting the offsite effects of the increased erosion. These results indicated that when agricultural expansion is kept away from rivers, Cerrado conversion will have only a limited impact on the sediment loads of local rivers. Where land-use changes are most concentrated are coincident with areas where more new sediments are generated (higher erosion) and where more sediments are re-deposited. Crown Copyright © 2012. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Unprecedented rates of land-use transformation in modeled climate change mitigation pathways

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Turner, P. A.; Field, C. B.; Lobell, D. B.; Sanchez, D.; Mach, K. J.

2017-12-01

Integrated assessment models (IAMs) generate climate change mitigation scenarios consistent with global temperature targets. To limit warming to 2°, stylized cost-effective mitigation pathways rely on extensive deployments of carbon dioxide (CO2) removal (CDR) technologies, including multi-gigatonne yearly carbon removal from the atmosphere through bioenergy with carbon capture and storage (BECCS) and afforestation/reforestation. These assumed CDR deployments keep ambitious temperature limits in reach, but associated rates of land-use transformation have not been evaluated. For IAM scenarios from the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report, we compare rates of modeled land-use conversion to recent observed commodity crop expansions. In scenarios with a likely chance of limiting warming to 2° in 2100, the rate of energy cropland expansion supporting BECCS exceeds past commodity crop rates by several fold. In some cases, mitigation scenarios include abrupt reversal of deforestation, paired with massive afforestation/reforestation. Specifically, energy cropland in <2° scenarios expands, on average, by 8.2 Mha yr-1 and 11.7% p.a. across scenarios. This rate exceeds, by more than 3-fold, the observed expansion of soybean, the most rapidly expanding commodity crop. If energy cropland instead increases at rates equal to recent soybean and oil palm expansions, the scale of CO2 removal possible with BECCS is 2.6 to 10-times lower, respectively, than the deployments <2° IAM scenarios rely upon in 2100. IAM mitigation pathways may favor multi-gigatonne biomass-based CDR given undervalued sociopolitical and techno-economic deployment barriers. Heroic modeled rates for land-use transformation imply that large-scale biomass-based CDR is not an easy solution to the climate challenge.

Modeling Urban Energy Savings Scenarios Using Earth System Microclimate and Urban Morphology

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Allen, M. R.; Rose, A.; New, J. R.; Yuan, J.; Omitaomu, O.; Sylvester, L.; Branstetter, M. L.; Carvalhaes, T. M.; Seals, M.; Berres, A.

2017-12-01

We analyze and quantify the relationships among climatic conditions, urban morphology, population, land cover, and energy use so that these relationships can be used to inform energy-efficient urban development and planning. We integrate different approaches across three research areas: earth system modeling; impacts, adaptation and vulnerability; and urban planning in order to address three major gaps in the existing capability in these areas: i) neighborhood resolution modeling and simulation of urban micrometeorological processes and their effect on and from regional climate; ii) projections for future energy use under urbanization and climate change scenarios identifying best strategies for urban morphological development and energy savings; iii) analysis and visualization tools to help planners optimally use these projections.

Simulation of the impact of managed aquifer recharge on the groundwater system in Hanoi, Vietnam

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Glass, Jana; Via Rico, Daniela A.; Stefan, Catalin; Nga, Tran Thi Viet

2018-05-01

A transient numerical groundwater flow model using MODFLOW-NWT was set up and calibrated for Hanoi city, Vietnam, to understand the local groundwater flow system and to suggest solutions for sustainable water resource management. Urban development in Hanoi has caused a severe decline of groundwater levels. The present study evaluates the actual situation and investigates the suitability of managed aquifer recharge (MAR) to stop further depletion of groundwater resources. The results suggest that groundwater is being overexploited, as vast cones of depression exist in parts of the study area. Suitable locations to implement two MAR techniques—riverbank filtration and injection wells—were identified using multi-criteria decision analysis based on geographic information system (GIS). Three predictive scenarios were simulated. The relocation of pumping wells towards the Red River to induce riverbank filtration (first scenario) demonstrates that groundwater levels can be increased, especially in the depression cones. Groundwater levels can also be improved locally by the infiltration of surplus water into the upper aquifer (Holocene) via injection wells during the rainy season (second scenario), but this is not effective to raise the water table in the depression cones. Compared to the first scenario, the combination of riverbank filtration and injection wells (third scenario) shows a slightly raised overall water table. Groundwater flow modeling suggests that local overexploitation can be stopped by a smart relocation of wells from the main depression cones and the expansion of riverbank filtration. This could also avoid further land subsidence while the city's water demand is met.

The changing patterns of cropland conversion to built-up land in China from 1987 to 2010

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ju, H.; Zhang, Z.; Zhao, X.; Wu, W.; Wang, X.; Zuo, L.

2017-12-01

With the rapid urbanization, industrialization and rural area construction in China, the expansions of built-up land encroached upon a large amount of cropland, and thus placed great challenges on national food security. Previous studies have primarily been focused on the whole effects of built-up land expansion, however, the individual effect of different types of built-up land (urban areas, rural settlements and industrial/transportation land) on cropland loss remains unclear. Based on land use maps interpreted from remote sensing imagery in 1987-2010, we illustrated the spatio-temporal patterns of the speed and the structure of cropland conversion to built-up land. Then, we quantitatively measured the influence of different built-up land on cropland loss from three aspects: the contribution of built-up land expansion to cropland loss, the dependence of built-up land expansion on cropland loss and the conversion's impacts on cropland quality. It was found 42,822 km2 of cropland were converted into built-up land in China, accounting for 43.8% of total cropland loss during 1987-2010. Before 2000, the expansion of rural settlements had the largest influence on cropland loss, however, urban growth showed a greater impact on cropland loss after 2000. Although the effects of rural settlements expansion decreased, rural settlements still saw the highest percentage of the loss of traditional cropland which is generally in high quality. In addition, the impacts of industrial/transportation land expansion increased dramatically and was mainly distributed in major food production regions. These changes were closely related to the economic restructuring, urban-rural transformation and government policies in China. These findings demonstrate that Chinese cropland conservation in both amount and quality should focus not only on finding a reasonable urbanization mode, but also solving the "hollowing village" problem and balancing the industrial transformations in the future.

A High-Fidelity Virtual Environment for the Study of Paranoia

PubMed Central

Broome, Matthew R.; Zányi, Eva; Selmanovic, Elmedin; Czanner, Silvester; Birchwood, Max; Chalmers, Alan; Singh, Swaran P.

2013-01-01

Psychotic disorders carry social and economic costs for sufferers and society. Recent evidence highlights the risk posed by urban upbringing and social deprivation in the genesis of paranoia and psychosis. Evidence based psychological interventions are often not offered because of a lack of therapists. Virtual reality (VR) environments have been used to treat mental health problems. VR may be a way of understanding the aetiological processes in psychosis and increasing psychotherapeutic resources for its treatment. We developed a high-fidelity virtual reality scenario of an urban street scene to test the hypothesis that virtual urban exposure is able to generate paranoia to a comparable or greater extent than scenarios using indoor scenes. Participants (n = 32) entered the VR scenario for four minutes, after which time their degree of paranoid ideation was assessed. We demonstrated that the virtual reality scenario was able to elicit paranoia in a nonclinical, healthy group and that an urban scene was more likely to lead to higher levels of paranoia than a virtual indoor environment. We suggest that this study offers evidence to support the role of exposure to factors in the urban environment in the genesis and maintenance of psychotic experiences and symptoms. The realistic high-fidelity street scene scenario may offer a useful tool for therapists. PMID:24455255

A high-fidelity virtual environment for the study of paranoia.

PubMed

Broome, Matthew R; Zányi, Eva; Hamborg, Thomas; Selmanovic, Elmedin; Czanner, Silvester; Birchwood, Max; Chalmers, Alan; Singh, Swaran P

2013-01-01

Psychotic disorders carry social and economic costs for sufferers and society. Recent evidence highlights the risk posed by urban upbringing and social deprivation in the genesis of paranoia and psychosis. Evidence based psychological interventions are often not offered because of a lack of therapists. Virtual reality (VR) environments have been used to treat mental health problems. VR may be a way of understanding the aetiological processes in psychosis and increasing psychotherapeutic resources for its treatment. We developed a high-fidelity virtual reality scenario of an urban street scene to test the hypothesis that virtual urban exposure is able to generate paranoia to a comparable or greater extent than scenarios using indoor scenes. Participants (n = 32) entered the VR scenario for four minutes, after which time their degree of paranoid ideation was assessed. We demonstrated that the virtual reality scenario was able to elicit paranoia in a nonclinical, healthy group and that an urban scene was more likely to lead to higher levels of paranoia than a virtual indoor environment. We suggest that this study offers evidence to support the role of exposure to factors in the urban environment in the genesis and maintenance of psychotic experiences and symptoms. The realistic high-fidelity street scene scenario may offer a useful tool for therapists.

Urban growth as a component of global change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schneider, Annemarie

Urbanization---both the shift in population to urban areas and the physical transformation of land---has accelerated in recent decades in nearly all parts of the world. Urban growth is known to affect local environments through microclimatic changes, pollution, and loss of natural and agricultural lands, and has the potential to influence global circulation, biogeochemistry, and energy balance. To assess these impacts, rates and patterns of urban expansion and their relation to socioeconomic drivers must be determined. A combination of multiple sources of coarse resolution remotely sensed data and a Bayesian data fusion approach result in global maps of urban areas that show reasonable accuracy in terms of the size and location of cities, and are suitable for use in regional-global climate models. To understand changes in urban form locally, medium-resolution remote sensing data, pattern metrics, and local census data are combined to provide a suite of urban growth indicators that facilitate comparison of trends across cities from different regions and different levels of economic development. Chengdu, a rapidly developing city in Western China, provides an ideal case study to test these methods. Results show that the city has increased in area over 350% from 1978 to 2002, while expanding primarily along transportation routes with fragmentation in periurban areas. Comparison of growth metrics for 25 cities from 13 countries for the period 1990-2000 reveals four city types: low-growth cities characterized by modest rates of infilling-type expansion, high-growth cities with rapid, fragmented development, expansive-growth cities with extensive dispersion at low population densities, and frantic-growth cities such as Chengdu, that exhibit extraordinary rates of growth at high population densities. Although all 25 cities are expanding at the urban-rural boundary, cities outside of the U.S. do not show evidence of the large, dispersed spatial forms characteristic of American urban sprawl. Empirical analysis of the linkages between urban growth and population, household, and labor data shows a limited relationship between urban expansion and population change, a factor conventionally thought to play a role in land conversion. Local economic restructuring to industry and service-oriented activities shows some importance in urban growth and dispersion.

Flood risk and adaptation strategies under climate change and urban expansion: A probabilistic analysis using global data.

PubMed

Muis, Sanne; Güneralp, Burak; Jongman, Brenden; Aerts, Jeroen C J H; Ward, Philip J

2015-12-15

An accurate understanding of flood risk and its drivers is crucial for effective risk management. Detailed risk projections, including uncertainties, are however rarely available, particularly in developing countries. This paper presents a method that integrates recent advances in global-scale modeling of flood hazard and land change, which enables the probabilistic analysis of future trends in national-scale flood risk. We demonstrate its application to Indonesia. We develop 1000 spatially-explicit projections of urban expansion from 2000 to 2030 that account for uncertainty associated with population and economic growth projections, as well as uncertainty in where urban land change may occur. The projections show that the urban extent increases by 215%-357% (5th and 95th percentiles). Urban expansion is particularly rapid on Java, which accounts for 79% of the national increase. From 2000 to 2030, increases in exposure will elevate flood risk by, on average, 76% and 120% for river and coastal floods. While sea level rise will further increase the exposure-induced trend by 19%-37%, the response of river floods to climate change is highly uncertain. However, as urban expansion is the main driver of future risk, the implementation of adaptation measures is increasingly urgent, regardless of the wide uncertainty in climate projections. Using probabilistic urban projections, we show that spatial planning can be a very effective adaptation strategy. Our study emphasizes that global data can be used successfully for probabilistic risk assessment in data-scarce countries. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

A social choice-based methodology for treated wastewater reuse in urban and suburban areas.

PubMed

Mahjouri, Najmeh; Pourmand, Ehsan

2017-07-01

Reusing treated wastewater for supplying water demands such as landscape and agricultural irrigation in urban and suburban areas has become a major water supply approach especially in regions struggling with water shortage. Due to limited available treated wastewater to satisfy all water demands, conflicts may arise in allocating treated wastewater to water users. Since there is usually more than one decision maker and more than one criterion to measure the impact of each water allocation scenario, effective tools are needed to combine individual preferences to reach a collective decision. In this paper, a new social choice (SC) method, which can consider some indifference thresholds for decision makers, is proposed for evaluating and ranking treated wastewater and urban runoff allocation scenarios to water users in urban and suburban areas. Some SC methods, namely plurality voting, Borda count, pairwise comparisons, Hare system, dictatorship, and approval voting, are applied for comparing and evaluating the results. Different scenarios are proposed for allocating treated wastewater and urban runoff to landscape irrigation, agricultural lands as well as artificial recharge of aquifer in the Tehran metropolitan Area, Iran. The main stakeholders rank the proposed scenarios based on their utilities using two different approaches. The proposed method suggests ranking of the scenarios based on the stakeholders' utilities and considering the scores they assigned to each scenario. Comparing the results of the proposed method with those of six different SC methods shows that the obtained ranks are mostly in compliance with the social welfare.

Noise pollution and annoyance: an urban soundscapes study.

PubMed

de Paiva Vianna, Karina Mary; Alves Cardoso, Maria Regina; Rodrigues, Rui Manuel Calejo

2015-01-01

Since 1972, the World Health Organization (WHO) has declared noise as a pollutant. Over the last decades, the quality of the urban environment has attracted the interest of researchers due to the growing urban sprawl, especially in developing countries. The objective of this study was to evaluate the effects of noise exposure in six urban soundscapes: Areas with high and low levels of noise in scenarios of leisure, work, and home. Cross-sectional study. The study was conducted in two steps: Evaluation of noise levels, with the development of noise maps, and health related inquiries. 180 individuals were interviewed, being 60 in each scenario, divided into 30 exposed to high level of noise and 30 to low level. Chi-Square test and Ordered Logistic Regression Model (P < 0,005). 70% of the interviewees reported noticing some source of noise in the selected scenarios and it was observed an association between exposure and perception of some source of noise (P < 0.001). 41.7% of the interviewees reported some degree of annoyance, being that this was associated with exposure (P < 0.001). There was also an association between exposure in different scenarios and reports of poor quality of sleep (P < 0.001). In the scenarios of work and home, the chance of reporting annoyance increased when compared with the scenario of leisure. We conclude that the use of this sort of assessment may clarify the relationship between urban noise exposure and health.

Noise pollution and annoyance: An urban soundscapes study

PubMed Central

de Paiva Vianna, Karina Mary; Alves Cardoso, Maria Regina; Rodrigues, Rui Manuel Calejo

2015-01-01

Since 1972, the World Health Organization (WHO) has declared noise as a pollutant. Over the last decades, the quality of the urban environment has attracted the interest of researchers due to the growing urban sprawl, especially in developing countries. The objective of this study was to evaluate the effects of noise exposure in six urban soundscapes: Areas with high and low levels of noise in scenarios of leisure, work, and home. Cross-sectional study. The study was conducted in two steps: Evaluation of noise levels, with the development of noise maps, and health related inquiries. 180 individuals were interviewed, being 60 in each scenario, divided into 30 exposed to high level of noise and 30 to low level. Chi-Square test and Ordered Logistic Regression Model (P < 0,005). 70% of the interviewees reported noticing some source of noise in the selected scenarios and it was observed an association between exposure and perception of some source of noise (P < 0.001). 41.7% of the interviewees reported some degree of annoyance, being that this was associated with exposure (P < 0.001). There was also an association between exposure in different scenarios and reports of poor quality of sleep (P < 0.001). In the scenarios of work and home, the chance of reporting annoyance increased when compared with the scenario of leisure. We conclude that the use of this sort of assessment may clarify the relationship between urban noise exposure and health. PMID:25913551

Growth Type and Functional Trajectories: An Empirical Study of Urban Expansion in Nanjing, China

PubMed Central

Yuan, Feng

2016-01-01

Drawing upon the Landsat satellite images of Nanjing from 1985, 1995, 2001, 2007, and 2013, this paper integrates the convex hull analysis and common edge analysis at double scales, and develops a comprehensive matrix analysis to distinguish the different types of urban land expansion. The results show that Nanjing experienced rapid urban expansion, dominated by a mix of residential and manufacturing land from 1985 to 2013, which in turn has promoted Nanjing’s shift from a compact mononuclear city to a polycentric one. Spatial patterns of three specific types of growth, namely infilling, extension, and enclave were quite different in four consecutive periods. These patterns result primarily from the existing topographic constraints, as well as government-oriented urban planning and policies. By intersecting the function maps, we also reveal the functional evolution of newly-developed urban land. Moreover, both self-enhancing and mutual promotion of the newly developed functions are surveyed over the last decade. Our study confirms that the integration of a multi-scale method and multi-perspective analysis, such as the spatiotemporal patterns and functional evolution, helps us to better understand the rapid urban growth in China. PMID:26845155

Chronological evaluation of urban growth and area expansion in Aguascalientes, Mexico using remotely sensed and ancillary mapped data

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Falquier, Leticia G.; Quattrochi, Dale A.; Pelletier, Ramona E.

1990-01-01

The study describes some efforts to assist the mapping procedure of Mexican towns and cities by focusing on the analysis of urban changes that have occurred in the city of Aguascalientes. To evaluate urban growth trends in Aguascalientes, historic maps of land cover, aerial photography, and SPOT data were reviewed between the period of 1857 and 1988 to determine urban boundaries. Additional analyses focused on identifying the extent and pattern of growth in reference to urban development plans initiated in 1978, and on assessing the impact of relocating people and industry after the Mexico City earthquake. Results from the study indicate a steady growth in areal expansion and population in the Aguascalientes area between 1978 and 1988.

Benefits and Challenges of Scaling Up Expansion of Marine Protected Area Networks in the Verde Island Passage, Central Philippines.

PubMed

Horigue, Vera; Pressey, Robert L; Mills, Morena; Brotánková, Jana; Cabral, Reniel; Andréfouët, Serge

2015-01-01

Locally-established marine protected areas (MPAs) have been proven to achieve local-scale fisheries and conservation objectives. However, since many of these MPAs were not designed to form ecologically-connected networks, their contributions to broader-scale goals such as complementarity and connectivity can be limited. In contrast, integrated networks of MPAs designed with systematic conservation planning are assumed to be more effective--ecologically, socially, and economically--than collections of locally-established MPAs. There is, however, little empirical evidence that clearly demonstrates the supposed advantages of systematic MPA networks. A key reason is the poor record of implementation of systematic plans attributable to lack of local buy-in. An intermediate scenario for the expansion of MPAs is scaling up of local decisions, whereby locally-driven MPA initiatives are coordinated through collaborative partnerships among local governments and their communities. Coordination has the potential to extend the benefits of individual MPAs and perhaps to approach the potential benefits offered by systematic MPA networks. We evaluated the benefits of scaling up local MPAs to form networks by simulating seven expansion scenarios for MPAs in the Verde Island Passage, central Philippines. The scenarios were: uncoordinated community-based establishment of MPAs; two scenarios reflecting different levels of coordinated MPA expansion through collaborative partnerships; and four scenarios guided by systematic conservation planning with different contexts for governance. For each scenario, we measured benefits through time in terms of achievement of objectives for representation of marine habitats. We found that: in any governance context, systematic networks were more efficient than non-systematic ones; systematic networks were more efficient in broader governance contexts; and, contrary to expectations but with caveats, the uncoordinated scenario was slightly more efficient than the coordinated scenarios. Overall, however, coordinated MPA networks have the potential to be more efficient than the uncoordinated ones, especially when coordinated planning uses systematic methods.

Benefits and Challenges of Scaling Up Expansion of Marine Protected Area Networks in the Verde Island Passage, Central Philippines

PubMed Central

Horigue, Vera; Pressey, Robert L.; Mills, Morena; Brotánková, Jana; Cabral, Reniel; Andréfouët, Serge

2015-01-01

Locally-established marine protected areas (MPAs) have been proven to achieve local-scale fisheries and conservation objectives. However, since many of these MPAs were not designed to form ecologically-connected networks, their contributions to broader-scale goals such as complementarity and connectivity can be limited. In contrast, integrated networks of MPAs designed with systematic conservation planning are assumed to be more effective—ecologically, socially, and economically—than collections of locally-established MPAs. There is, however, little empirical evidence that clearly demonstrates the supposed advantages of systematic MPA networks. A key reason is the poor record of implementation of systematic plans attributable to lack of local buy-in. An intermediate scenario for the expansion of MPAs is scaling up of local decisions, whereby locally-driven MPA initiatives are coordinated through collaborative partnerships among local governments and their communities. Coordination has the potential to extend the benefits of individual MPAs and perhaps to approach the potential benefits offered by systematic MPA networks. We evaluated the benefits of scaling up local MPAs to form networks by simulating seven expansion scenarios for MPAs in the Verde Island Passage, central Philippines. The scenarios were: uncoordinated community-based establishment of MPAs; two scenarios reflecting different levels of coordinated MPA expansion through collaborative partnerships; and four scenarios guided by systematic conservation planning with different contexts for governance. For each scenario, we measured benefits through time in terms of achievement of objectives for representation of marine habitats. We found that: in any governance context, systematic networks were more efficient than non-systematic ones; systematic networks were more efficient in broader governance contexts; and, contrary to expectations but with caveats, the uncoordinated scenario was slightly more efficient than the coordinated scenarios. Overall, however, coordinated MPA networks have the potential to be more efficient than the uncoordinated ones, especially when coordinated planning uses systematic methods. PMID:26288089

Application of multiobjective optimization to scheduling capacity expansion of urban water resource systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mortazavi-Naeini, Mohammad; Kuczera, George; Cui, Lijie

2014-06-01

Significant population increase in urban areas is likely to result in a deterioration of drought security and level of service provided by urban water resource systems. One way to cope with this is to optimally schedule the expansion of system resources. However, the high capital costs and environmental impacts associated with expanding or building major water infrastructure warrant the investigation of scheduling system operational options such as reservoir operating rules, demand reduction policies, and drought contingency plans, as a way of delaying or avoiding the expansion of water supply infrastructure. Traditionally, minimizing cost has been considered the primary objective in scheduling capacity expansion problems. In this paper, we consider some of the drawbacks of this approach. It is shown that there is no guarantee that the social burden of coping with drought emergencies is shared equitably across planning stages. In addition, it is shown that previous approaches do not adequately exploit the benefits of joint optimization of operational and infrastructure options and do not adequately address the need for the high level of drought security expected for urban systems. To address these shortcomings, a new multiobjective optimization approach to scheduling capacity expansion in an urban water resource system is presented and illustrated in a case study involving the bulk water supply system for Canberra. The results show that the multiobjective approach can address the temporal equity issue of sharing the burden of drought emergencies and that joint optimization of operational and infrastructure options can provide solutions superior to those just involving infrastructure options.

Assessing cost-effectiveness of bioretention on stormwater in response to climate change and urbanization for future scenarios

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Mo; Zhang, Dongqing; Adhityan, Appan; Ng, Wun Jern; Dong, Jianwen; Tan, Soon Keat

2016-12-01

Bioretention, as a popular low impact development practice, has become more important to mitigate adverse impacts on urban stormwater. However, there is very limited information regarding ensuring the effectiveness of bioretention response to uncertain future challenges, especially when taking into consideration climate change and urbanization. The main objective of this paper is to identify the cost-effectiveness of bioretention by assessing the hydrology performance under future scenarios modeling. First, the hydrology model was used to obtain peak runoff and TSS loads of bioretention with variable scales under different scenarios, i.e., different Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) and Shared Socio-economic reference Pathways (SSPs) for 2-year and 10-year design storms in Singapore. Then, life cycle costing (LCC) and life cycle assessment (LCA) were estimated for bioretention, and the cost-effectiveness was identified under different scenarios. Our finding showed that there were different degree of responses to 2-year and 10-year design storms but the general patterns and insights deduced were similar. The performance of bioretenion was more sensitive to urbanization than that for climate change in the urban catchment. In addition, it was noted that the methodology used in this study was generic and the findings could be useful as reference for other LID practices in response to climate change and urbanization.

Biomonitoring of atmospheric pollution by moss bags: Discriminating urban-rural structure in a fragmented landscape.

PubMed

Capozzi, F; Giordano, S; Di Palma, A; Spagnuolo, V; De Nicola, F; Adamo, P

2016-04-01

In this paper we investigated the possibility to use moss bags to detect pollution inputs - metals, metalloids and polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) - in sites chosen for their different land use (agricultural, urban/residential scenarios) and proximity to roads (sub-scenarios), in a fragmented conurbation of Campania (southern Italy). We focused on thirty-nine elements including rare earths. For most of them, moss uptake was higher in agricultural than in urban scenarios and in front road sites. Twenty PAHs were analyzed in a subset of agricultural sites; 4- and 5-ringed PAHs were the most abundant, particularly chrysene, fluoranthene and pyrene. Overall results indicated that investigated pollutants have a similar spatial distribution pattern over the entire study area, with road traffic and agricultural practices as the major diffuse pollution sources. Moss bags proved a very sensitive tool, able to discriminate between different land use scenarios and proximity to roads in a mixed rural-urban landscape. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Land cover change or land-use intensification: simulating land system change with a global-scale land change model.

PubMed

van Asselen, Sanneke; Verburg, Peter H

2013-12-01

Land-use change is both a cause and consequence of many biophysical and socioeconomic changes. The CLUMondo model provides an innovative approach for global land-use change modeling to support integrated assessments. Demands for goods and services are, in the model, supplied by a variety of land systems that are characterized by their land cover mosaic, the agricultural management intensity, and livestock. Land system changes are simulated by the model, driven by regional demand for goods and influenced by local factors that either constrain or promote land system conversion. A characteristic of the new model is the endogenous simulation of intensification of agricultural management versus expansion of arable land, and urban versus rural settlements expansion based on land availability in the neighborhood of the location. Model results for the OECD Environmental Outlook scenario show that allocation of increased agricultural production by either management intensification or area expansion varies both among and within world regions, providing useful insight into the land sparing versus land sharing debate. The land system approach allows the inclusion of different types of demand for goods and services from the land system as a driving factor of land system change. Simulation results are compared to observed changes over the 1970-2000 period and projections of other global and regional land change models. © 2013 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Urban Impact at the Urban-Agricultural Interface in Madison, WI: an Ecosystem Modeling Approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Logan, K. E.; Kucharik, C. J.; Schneider, A.

2009-12-01

Global population and the proportion of people living in urban areas both continue to grow while average urban density is decreasing worldwide. Because urban areas are often located in the most agriculturally productive lands, expansion of the built environment can cause sharp reductions in land available for cultivation. Conversion of land to urban use also significantly alters climate variables. Urban materials differ from natural land covers in terms of albedo, thermal properties, and permeability, altering energy and water cycles. Anthropogenic heat emissions also alter the energy balance in and around a city. Preliminary analysis of urban impacts around Madison, WI, a small city located in a thriving agricultural region, was performed using the National Land Cover Database (NLCD), MODIS albedo products, ground-based observations, and a simulation of urban expansion, within a geographic information system (GIS). Population of the county is expected to increase by 58% while urban density is projected to decrease by 49% between 1992 and 2030, reflecting projected worldwide patterns. Carbon stored in the top 25cm of soil was found to be over 2.5 times greater in remnant prairies than in croplands and was calculated to be even less in urban areas; projected urban development may thus lead to large losses in carbon storage. Albedo measurements also show a significant decrease with urban development. Projected urban expansion between 2001 and 2030 is expected to convert enough agricultural lands to urban areas to result in a loss of 247,000 tons of crop yield in Dane County alone, based on current yields. For a more complete analysis of these impacts, urban parameters are incorporated into a terrestrial ecosystem model known as Agro-IBIS. This approach allows for detailed comparison of energy balance and biogeochemical cycles between local crop systems, lawns, and impervious city surfaces. Changes in these important cycles, in soil carbon storage, and in crop productivity/yield for 1992 - 2001 and projected 2030 development around Madison, WI will be shown.

Urban change analysis and future growth of Istanbul.

PubMed

Akın, Anıl; Sunar, Filiz; Berberoğlu, Süha

2015-08-01

This study is aimed at analyzing urban change within Istanbul and assessing the city's future growth potential using appropriate approach modeling for the year 2040. Urban growth is a major driving force of land-use change, and spatial and temporal components of urbanization can be identified through accurate spatial modeling. In this context, widely used urban modeling approaches, such as the Markov chain and logistic regression based on cellular automata (CA), were used to simulate urban growth within Istanbul. The distance from each pixel to the urban and road classes, elevation, and slope, together with municipality and land use maps (as an excluded layer), were identified as factors. Calibration data were obtained from remotely sensed data recorded in 1972, 1986, and 2013. Validation was performed by overlaying the simulated and actual 2013 urban maps, and a kappa index of agreement was derived. The results indicate that urban expansion will influence mainly forest areas during the time period of 2013-2040. The urban expansion was predicted as 429 and 327 km(2) with the Markov chain and logistic regression models, respectively.

[Urbanization expanding process and its spatial characteristics in changping district of Beijing, China].

PubMed

Zhang, Feng; Zhang, Xinshi

2005-06-01

Urbanization is a massive and unplanned experiment that already affects large acreages worldwide, and has profound social and ecological consequences for both urban and rural residents. Therefore, to comprehensively quantify the urbanization process and to investigate its ecological consequences become the central issues in urban ecological studies. Combining urbanization expanding index with landscape metrics, this paper quantified the urbanization expanding process and the urbanization spatial characteristics in Changping District of Beijing. The results showed that there were three main urbanization models, i. e., urban fringe belt-expending model, main transportation routes line-expending model, and satellite city panel-expending model. The urbanization expansion index showed that urbanization mainly took place during the period from 1989 to 1996, and the urban landscape metrics indicated that there were urban patches isolated expanding and new urban patches emerged from 1989 to 1996, mainly amalgamated expanding from 1996 to 2001 in urban fringe belt-expanding region. In transportation routes line-expanding region, the urban patches isolated expanding, amalgamated expanding and new urban patches emerging took place simultaneously, and mainly urban patches amalgamated expanding during the former period, and new urban patches constantly turning up around satellite city during the latter in satellite city panel-expanding region. This study showed that urbanization expansion integrating landscape metrics might reveal the urbanization expanding process and its spatial characteristics, and would be a good example for the application of landscape metrics.

The impact of traffic emissions on air quality in the Berlin-Brandenburg region - a case study on cycling scenarios

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kuik, F.; Lauer, A.; von Schneidemesser, E.; Butler, T. M.

2016-12-01

Many European cities continue to struggle with exceedances of NO2 limit values at measurement sites near roads, of which a large contribution is attributed to emissions from traffic. In this study, we explore how urban air quality can be improved with different traffic measures using the example of the Berlin-Brandenburg region. In order to simulate urban background air quality we use the Weather Research and Forecasting model with chemistry (WRF-Chem) at a horizontal resolution of 1km. We use emission input data at a horizontal resolution of 1km obtained by downscaling TNO-MACC III emissions based on local proxy data including population and traffic densities. In addition we use a statistical approach combining the simulated urban background concentrations with information on traffic densities to estimate NO2 at street level. This helps assessing whether the emission scenarios studied here can lead to significant reductions in NO2 concentrations at street level. The emission scenarios in this study represent a range of scenarios in which car traffic is replaced with bicycle traffic. Part of this study was an initial discussion phase with stakeholders, including policy makers and NGOs. The discussions have shown that the different stakeholders are interested in a scientific assessment of the impact of replacing car traffic with bicycle traffic in the Berlin-Brandenburg urban area. Local policy makers responsible for city planning and implementing traffic measures can make best use of scientific modeling results if input data and scenarios are as realistic as possible. For these reasons, the scenarios cover very idealized optimistic ("all passenger cars are replaced by bicycles") and pessimistic ("all cyclists are replaced by cars") scenarios to explore the sensitivity of simulated urban background air quality to these changes, as well as additional scenarios based on city-specific data to analyze more realistic situations. Of particular interest is how these impact street level NO2 concentrations.

Importance of anthropogenic climate impact, sampling error and urban development in sewer system design.

PubMed

Egger, C; Maurer, M

2015-04-15

Urban drainage design relying on observed precipitation series neglects the uncertainties associated with current and indeed future climate variability. Urban drainage design is further affected by the large stochastic variability of precipitation extremes and sampling errors arising from the short observation periods of extreme precipitation. Stochastic downscaling addresses anthropogenic climate impact by allowing relevant precipitation characteristics to be derived from local observations and an ensemble of climate models. This multi-climate model approach seeks to reflect the uncertainties in the data due to structural errors of the climate models. An ensemble of outcomes from stochastic downscaling allows for addressing the sampling uncertainty. These uncertainties are clearly reflected in the precipitation-runoff predictions of three urban drainage systems. They were mostly due to the sampling uncertainty. The contribution of climate model uncertainty was found to be of minor importance. Under the applied greenhouse gas emission scenario (A1B) and within the period 2036-2065, the potential for urban flooding in our Swiss case study is slightly reduced on average compared to the reference period 1981-2010. Scenario planning was applied to consider urban development associated with future socio-economic factors affecting urban drainage. The impact of scenario uncertainty was to a large extent found to be case-specific, thus emphasizing the need for scenario planning in every individual case. The results represent a valuable basis for discussions of new drainage design standards aiming specifically to include considerations of uncertainty. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Water quality and small-scale land use mapping in the South-Chinese megacity Guangzhou

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Strohschoen, R.; Azzam, R.; Baier, K.

2011-12-01

Since China adopted its "open-door" policy in 1978/ 79, the Pearl River Delta became one of the most rapid and dynamic urbanizing areas in East Asia due to migration, industrialization and globalization processes. The study area Guangzhou grew from a small town to a megacity with some 15 million inhabitants within less than 30 years. The rapid population growth and the urban and industrial expansion led to a remarkably increasing demand for freshwater, a high water consume and a rising sewage production. While economy and house constructions developed very fast, the expansion of water infrastructures could not keep pace with the urban growth. The consequences arising out of these situations are a serious deterioration of the surface and groundwater resources but also a degradation of living conditions and a threat to human health, particularly of the urban poor. In contrast to other studies that often consider the surface water quality outside Guangzhou, our focus was put on the urban Pearl River and its tributaries as well as urban groundwater and tap water. The study was conducted to spatially investigate the present status of the water quality in view of the concurrent formal and informal anthropogenic influences. Additional land use mapping was undertaken to analyze the interrelations between different land use types and water quality and to determine local pollution hotspots which should be taken into particular consideration of future city planning. Supplementing interviews were hold to find out usage patterns of groundwater and strategies to cope with both insufficient tap water quality and water infrastructures. A total of 74 surface water samples and 16 groundwater samples of privately and publicly accessible wells were taken at the beginning of the rainy season in May 2010. Those samples were partly compared to measurements carried out from 2007-2009, where adequate. Further, 15 tap water samples were taken in 2007/ 08 to draw conclusions about possible health risks. The physicochemical parameters (pH, electrical conductivity [μS/ cm], oxygen content [mg/ L], oxygen saturation [%] and redox potential [mV]) were measured in situ or in a 'mobile laboratory'. Chemical mapping which allowed us to evaluate the distribution and concentration of the parameters coliform bacteria, NO3-, NH4+, Cd, Cr, Cu, Pb and Zn was also conducted. The latter were analyzed subject to the standard examination methods stated by the Ministry of Environmental Protection of the People's Republic of China and the U.S. EPA (e.g. ICP-MS). Despite comprehensive improvements in the range of wastewater disposal in recent years, the chemical analysis showed that pollution loads from (informal) housing areas are still very high (especially relating to coliforms). Other main sources of water pollution result from agricultural runoff and animal husbandry. The concentrations of heavy metals by contrast were low which could result from the strengthening of industrial discharge regulations. Based on our findings, qualitative scenarios will be drafted with regard to the interactions of land use, urban expansion and water quality showing vulnerable areas. The findings could be seen as a contribution for an effective and sustainable protection of Guangzhou's land and water resources.

Geohydrology of the shallow aquifers in the Boulder-Longmont area, Colorado

USGS Publications Warehouse

Robson, Stanley G.; Heiny, Janet S.; Arnold, L.R.

2000-01-01

Urban areas commonly rely on ground water for at least part of the municipal water supply, and as population increases, urban areas expand and require larger volumes of water. However, the expansion of an urban area can reduce ground-water availability. This may occur through processes of depletion (withdrawal of most of the available ground water), degradation (chemicals used in the urban area keep into the ground and contaminate the ground water), and preemption (cost or restrictions on pumping ground water from under extensively urbanized areas may he prohibitive). Thus, a vital natural resource needed to support the growth of an urban area and its infrastructure can become less available because of growth itself.The diminished availability of natural resources caused by expansion of urban areas is not unique to water resources. For example, large volumes of aggregate (sand and gravel) are used in concrete and asphalt to build and maintain the infrastructure (buildings, roads, airports, and so forth) of an urban area. Yet, mining of aggregate commonly is preempted by urban expansion; for example, it cannot he mined from under a subdivision. Energy resources such as coal, oil, and natural gas likewise are critical to the growth and existence of an urban area but may become less available as an urban area expands and preempts mining and drilling.In 1996, the U.S. Geological Survey began work on a national initiative designed to provide information on the availability of those natural resources (water, minerals, energy, and biota) that are critical to maintaining the Nation's infrastructure or that may become less available because of urban expansion. The initiative began with a 3-year demonstration project to develop procedures for assessing resources and methods for interpreting and publishing information in digital and traditional paper formats. The Front Range urban corridor of Colorado was chosen as the demonstration area (fig. 1), and the project was titled the Front Range Infrastructure Resources Project (FRIRP). This report and those of Robson (1996), Robson and others (1998), and Robson and others (2000a, 2000b, 2000c) (fig. 1) are the results of FRIRP water resources investigations; reports pertaining to geology, minerals, energy, biota, and cartography of the FRIRP are published separately. The water-resources studies of the FRIRP were undertaken in cooperation with the Colorado Department of Natural Resources, Division of Water Resources, and the Colorado Water Conservation Board.

Geohydrology of the shallow aquifers in the Greeley-Nunn area, Colorado

USGS Publications Warehouse

Robson, Stanley G.; Arnold, L.R.; Heiny, Janet S.

2000-01-01

Urban areas commonly rely on ground water for at least part of the municipal water supply, and as population increases, urban areas expand and require larger volumes of water. However, the expansion of an urban area can reduce ground-water availability. This may occur through processes of depletion (withdrawal of most of the available ground water), degradation (chemicals used in the urban area seep into the ground and contaminate the ground water), and preemption (cost or restrictions on pumping ground water from under extensively urbanized areas may be prohibitive). Thus, a vital natural resource needed to support the growth of an urban area and its infrastructure can become less available because of growth itself.The diminished availability of natural resources caused by expansion of urban areas is not unique to water resources. For example, large volumes of aggregate (sand and gravel) are used in concrete and asphalt to build and maintain the infrastructure (buildings, roads, airports, and so forth) of an urban area. Yet, mining of aggregate commonly is preempted by urban expansion; for example, it cannot be mined from under a subdivision. Energy resources such as coal, oil, and natural gas likewise are critical to the growth and vitality of an urban area but may become less available as an urban area expands and preempts mining and drilling.In 1996, the U.S. Geological Survey began work on a national initiative designed to provide information on the availability of those natural resources (water, minerals, energy, and biota) that are critical to maintaining the Nation's infrastructure or that may become less available because of urban expansion. The initiative began with a 3-year demonstration project to develop procedures for assessing resources and methods for interpreting and publishing information in digital and traditional paper formats. The Front Range urban corridor of Colorado was chosen as the demonstration area (fig. 1), and the project was titled the Front Range Infrastructure Resources Project (FRIRP). This report and those of Robson (1996), Robson and others (1998), and Robson and others (2000a, 2000b, 2000c) are the results of FRIRP water-resources investigations; reports pertaining to geology, minerals, energy, biota, and cartography of the FRIRP are published separately. The water resources studies of the FRIRP were undertaken in cooperation with the Colorado Department of Natural Resources, Division of Water Resources. and the Colorado Water Conservation Board.

Geohydrology of the shallow aquifers in the Fort Lupton-Gilchrest area, Colorado

USGS Publications Warehouse

Robson, Stanley G.; Heiny, Janet S.; Arnold, L.R.

2000-01-01

Urban areas commonly rely on ground water for at least part of the municipal water supply, and as population increases, urban areas expand and require larger volumes of water. However, the expansion of an urban area can reduce ground-water availability. This may occur through processes of depletion (withdrawal of most of the available ground water), degradation (chemicals used in the urban area seep into the ground and contaminate the ground water), and preemption (cost or restrictions on pumping ground water from under extensively urbanized areas may be prohibitive). Thus, a vital natural resource needed to support the growth of an urban area and its infrastructure can become less available because of growth itself.The diminished availability of natural resources caused by expansion of urban areas is not unique to water resources. For example, large volumes of aggregate (sand and gravel) are used in concrete and asphalt to build and maintain the infrastructure (buildings, roads, airports, and so forth) of an urban area. Yet, mining of aggregate commonly is preempted by urban expansion; for example, it cannot be mined from under a subdivision. Energy resources such as coal, oil, and natural gas likewise are critical to the growth and existence of an urban area but may become less available as an urban area expands and preempts mining and drilling.In 1996, the U.S. Geological Survey began work on a national initiative designed to provide information on the availability of those natural resources (water, minerals, energy, and biota) that are critical to maintaining the Nation's infrastructure or that may become less available because of urban expansion. The initiative began with a 3-year demonstration project to develop procedures for assessing resources and methods for interpreting and publishing information in digital and traditional paper formats. The Front Range urban corridor of Colorado was chosen as the demonstration area (fig. 1), and the project was titled the Front Range Infrastructure Resources Project (FRIRP). This report and those of Robson (1996), Robson and others (1998), and Robson and others (2000a, 2000b, 2000c) are the results of FRIRP water-resources investigations; reports pertaining to geology, minerals, energy, biota, and cartography of the FRIRP are published separately. The water resources studies of the FRIRP were undertaken in cooperation with the Colorado Department of Natural Resources, Division of Water Resources, and the Colorado Water Conservation Board.

Future Forest Cover Change Scenarios with Implications for Landslide Risk: An Example from Buzau Subcarpathians, Romania

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Malek, Žiga; Boerboom, Luc; Glade, Thomas

2015-11-01

This study focuses on future forest cover change in Buzau Subcarpathians, a landslide prone region in Romania. Past and current trends suggest that the area might expect a future increase in deforestation. We developed spatially explicit scenarios until 2040 to analyze the spatial pattern of future forest cover change and potential changes to landslide risk. First, we generated transition probability maps using the weights of evidence method, followed by a cellular automata allocation model. We performed expert interviews, to develop two future forest management scenarios. The Alternative scenario (ALT) was defined by 67 % more deforestation than the Business as Usual scenario (BAU). We integrated the simulated scenarios with a landslide susceptibility map. In both scenarios, most of deforestation was projected in areas where landslides are less likely to occur. Still, 483 (ALT) and 276 (BAU) ha of deforestation were projected on areas with a high-landslide occurrence likelihood. Thus, deforestation could lead to a local-scale increase in landslide risk, in particular near or adjacent to forestry roads. The parallel process of near 10 % forest expansion until 2040 was projected to occur mostly on areas with high-landslide susceptibility. On a regional scale, forest expansion could so result in improved slope stability. We modeled two additional scenarios with an implemented landslide risk policy, excluding high-risk zones. The reduction of deforestation on high-risk areas was achieved without a drastic decrease in the accessibility of the areas. Together with forest expansion, it could therefore be used as a risk reduction strategy.

Future Forest Cover Change Scenarios with Implications for Landslide Risk: An Example from Buzau Subcarpathians, Romania.

PubMed

Malek, Žiga; Boerboom, Luc; Glade, Thomas

2015-11-01

This study focuses on future forest cover change in Buzau Subcarpathians, a landslide prone region in Romania. Past and current trends suggest that the area might expect a future increase in deforestation. We developed spatially explicit scenarios until 2040 to analyze the spatial pattern of future forest cover change and potential changes to landslide risk. First, we generated transition probability maps using the weights of evidence method, followed by a cellular automata allocation model. We performed expert interviews, to develop two future forest management scenarios. The Alternative scenario (ALT) was defined by 67% more deforestation than the Business as Usual scenario (BAU). We integrated the simulated scenarios with a landslide susceptibility map. In both scenarios, most of deforestation was projected in areas where landslides are less likely to occur. Still, 483 (ALT) and 276 (BAU) ha of deforestation were projected on areas with a high-landslide occurrence likelihood. Thus, deforestation could lead to a local-scale increase in landslide risk, in particular near or adjacent to forestry roads. The parallel process of near 10% forest expansion until 2040 was projected to occur mostly on areas with high-landslide susceptibility. On a regional scale, forest expansion could so result in improved slope stability. We modeled two additional scenarios with an implemented landslide risk policy, excluding high-risk zones. The reduction of deforestation on high-risk areas was achieved without a drastic decrease in the accessibility of the areas. Together with forest expansion, it could therefore be used as a risk reduction strategy.

Understanding spatial-temporal urban expansion pattern (1990-2009) using impervious surface data and landscape indexes: a case study in Guangzhou (China)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fan, Fenglei; Fan, Wei

2014-01-01

A new viewpoint for understanding the urban expansion using impervious surface information, which is obtained using remote sensing imagery is presented. The purpose of this study is to understand and describe the urban expansion pattern with the view of impervious surfaces instead of the conventional view of land use/land cover. Six years' worth of impervious surface data (1990-2009) of Guangzhou are extracted via linear spectral unmixing analysis methods and spatial and temporal characteristics are discussed in detail. The area, density, and gravity centers changes of the impervious surfaces are analyzed to explain internal/external urban expansion. Meanwhile, five landscape indexes, such as patch density, edge density, mean patch size, area-weighted, and fragmentation index, are utilized to describe landscape changes of Guangzhou in past 20 years, which are influenced deeply by the impervious surface expansion. In order to detail landscape changes, two transects corresponding to the two urban expansion directions are designed and five landscape metrics in these two transects are reported. Conclusions can be drawn and shown as following: (1) temporally, the area of impervious surfaces increases from 12,998 to 59,911 ha from 1990 to 2009. The amount of impervious surface varies in different periods. The annual growth rates of impervious surface area during 1990-1995, 1995-1998, and 1998-2000 are 10.16%, 11.61%, and 10.78%, respectively; (2) annual growth rates decrease from 10.78% (1998-2000) to 5.67% (2000-2003). Nevertheless, from 2003-2009, the annual growth rate has a slight increase compared to a former period. The rate is 5.91% (3) spatially, gravity centers of medium and high percentage impervious surfaces migrate slightly; and (4) according to the gradient analysis in the two transects, it can be observed that the high percentage of impervious surface increases gradually in new city districts (from west to east and from south to north).

A socio-technical model to explore urban water systems scenarios.

PubMed

de Haan, Fjalar J; Ferguson, Briony C; Deletic, Ana; Brown, Rebekah R

2013-01-01

This article reports on the ongoing work and research involved in the development of a socio-technical model of urban water systems. Socio-technical means the model is not so much concerned with the technical or biophysical aspects of urban water systems, but rather with the social and institutional implications of the urban water infrastructure and vice versa. A socio-technical model, in the view purported in this article, produces scenarios of different urban water servicing solutions gaining or losing influence in meeting water-related societal needs, like potable water, drainage, environmental health and amenity. The urban water system is parameterised with vectors of the relative influence of each servicing solution. The model is a software implementation of the Multi-Pattern Approach, a theory on societal systems, like urban water systems, and how these develop and go through transitions under various internal and external conditions. Acknowledging that social dynamics comes with severe and non-reducible uncertainties, the model is set up to be exploratory, meaning that for any initial condition several possible future scenarios are produced. This article gives a concise overview of the necessary theoretical background, the model architecture and some initial test results using a drainage example.

[The economic-financial sustainability of the Family Health Strategy in large municipalities].

PubMed

Portela, Gustavo Zoio; Ribeiro, José Mendes

2011-03-01

The universalization of basic care and commitment budget of the Ministry of Health with the Family Health Strategy (ESF) through new systematic financing incentives have been highlighted in the Brazilian health policy scenario. One of the great problems observed is the expansion of the strategy for large urban centres. This paper studies the economic-financial sustainability of ESF in Brazilian municipalities of more than 100 thousand inhabitants according to some selected indicators, considering the geographical region to which they belong, their population size and participation in Project for the Expansion and Consolidation Family Health (Proesf). Municipalities belonging to the Southeast region, more developed of the country, have on average better economic-financial performance, but lower average values of coverage of ESF. Municipalities from the North and Northeast, with the lowest average for economic-financial sustainability indicators, were the ones that made more effort to developments in the period. Thus, we observed the dynamics between bigger fiscal capacity and budgetary commitment with the Health Sector for biggest municipalities and in more economically developed regions, and greater vulnerability and dependence of federative transferences for municipalities with less people, in less developed areas.

Effects of urbanization expansion on landscape pattern and region ecological risk in Chinese coastal city: a case study of Yantai city.

PubMed

Zhou, Di; Shi, Ping; Wu, Xiaoqing; Ma, Jinwei; Yu, Junbao

2014-01-01

Applied with remote sensing, GIS, and mathematical statistics, the spatial-temporal evolution characteristics of urbanization expansion of Yantai city from 1974 to 2009 was studied. Based on landscape pattern metrics and ecological risk index, the landscape ecological risk from the landscape pattern dynamics was evaluated. The results showed that the area of urban land increased by 189.77 km(2) with average expansion area of 5.42 km(2) y(-1) from 1974 to 2009. The urbanization intensity index during 2004-2009 was 3.92 times of that during 1974-1990. The land use types of urban land and farmland changed greatly. The changes of landscape pattern metrics for land use patterns indicated that the intensity of human activities had strengthened gradually in study period. The landscape ecological risk pattern of Yantai city shaped half-round rings along the coastline. The ecological risk index decreased with increase of the distance to the coastline. The ratio of high ecological risk to subhigh ecological risk zones in 2009 was 2.23 times of that in 1990. The significant linear relationship of urbanization intensity index and regional ecological risk indicated that the anthropological economic activities were decisive factors for sustainable development of costal ecological environment.

Effects of Urbanization Expansion on Landscape Pattern and Region Ecological Risk in Chinese Coastal City: A Case Study of Yantai City

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhou, D.; Yu, J.; Li, Y.; Zhan, C.

2017-12-01

Applied with remote sensing, GIS, and mathematical statistics, the spatial-temporal evolution characteristics of urbanization expansion of Yantai city from1974 to 2009 was studied. Based on landscape pattern metrics and ecological risk index, the landscape ecological risk from the landscape pattern dynamics was evaluated. The results showed that the area of urban land increased by 189.77 km2 with average expansion area of 5.42 km2 y-1 from1974 to 2009.The urbanization intensity index during 2004-2009 was 3.92 times of that during 1974-1990. The land use types of urban land and farmland changed greatly. The changes of landscape pattern metrics for land use patterns indicated that the intensity of human activities had strengthened gradually in study period. The landscape ecological risk pattern of Yantai city shaped half-round rings along the coastline. The ecological risk index decreased with increase of the distance to the coastline. The ratio of high ecological risk to sub-high ecological risk zones in 2009 was 2.23 times of that in 1990.The significant linear relationship of urbanization intensity index and regional ecological risk indicated that the anthropological economic activities were decisive factors for sustainable development of costal ecological environment.

Effects of Urbanization Expansion on Landscape Pattern and Region Ecological Risk in Chinese Coastal City: A Case Study of Yantai City

PubMed Central

Zhou, Di; Shi, Ping; Wu, Xiaoqing; Ma, Jinwei

2014-01-01

Applied with remote sensing, GIS, and mathematical statistics, the spatial-temporal evolution characteristics of urbanization expansion of Yantai city from 1974 to 2009 was studied. Based on landscape pattern metrics and ecological risk index, the landscape ecological risk from the landscape pattern dynamics was evaluated. The results showed that the area of urban land increased by 189.77 km2 with average expansion area of 5.42 km2 y−1 from 1974 to 2009. The urbanization intensity index during 2004–2009 was 3.92 times of that during 1974–1990. The land use types of urban land and farmland changed greatly. The changes of landscape pattern metrics for land use patterns indicated that the intensity of human activities had strengthened gradually in study period. The landscape ecological risk pattern of Yantai city shaped half-round rings along the coastline. The ecological risk index decreased with increase of the distance to the coastline. The ratio of high ecological risk to subhigh ecological risk zones in 2009 was 2.23 times of that in 1990. The significant linear relationship of urbanization intensity index and regional ecological risk indicated that the anthropological economic activities were decisive factors for sustainable development of costal ecological environment. PMID:24983003

Charcoal production in the Mopane woodlands of Mozambique: what are the trade-offs with other ecosystem services?

PubMed Central

Baumert, Sophia; Vollmer, Frank; Grundy, Isla; Fisher, Janet; Fernando, Jone; Luz, Ana; Lisboa, Sá N.

2016-01-01

African woodlands form a major part of the tropical grassy biome and support the livelihoods of millions of rural and urban people. Charcoal production in particular is a major economic activity, but its impact on other ecosystem services is little studied. To address this, our study collected biophysical and social datasets, which were combined in ecological production functions, to assess ecosystem service provision and its change under different charcoal production scenarios in Gaza Province, southern Mozambique. We found that villages with longer histories of charcoal production had experienced declines in wood suitable for charcoal, firewood and construction, and tended to have lower perceived availabilities of these services. Scenarios of future charcoal impacts indicated that firewood and woody construction services were likely to trade-off with charcoal production. However, even under the most extreme charcoal scenario, these services were not completely lost. Other provisioning services, such as wild food, medicinal plants and grass, were largely unaffected by charcoal production. To reduce the future impacts of charcoal production, producers must avoid increased intensification of charcoal extraction by avoiding the expansion of species and sizes of trees used for charcoal production. This is a major challenge to land managers and policymakers in the area. This article is part of the themed issue ‘Tropical grassy biomes: linking ecology, human use and conservation’. PMID:27502380

Method meets application: on the use of earthquake scenarios in community-based disaster preparedness and response

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sargeant, S.; Sorensen, M. B.

2011-12-01

More than 50% of the world's population now live in urban areas. In less developed countries, future urban population increase will be due to natural population growth and rural-to-urban migration. As urban growth continues, the vulnerability of those living in these areas is also increasing. This presents a wide variety of challenges for humanitarian organisations that often have more experience of disaster response in rural settings rather than planning for large urban disasters. The 2010 Haiti earthquake highlighted the vulnerability of these organisations and the communities that they seek to support. To meet this challenge, a key consideration is how scientific information can support the humanitarian sector and their working practices. Here we review the current state of earthquake scenario modelling practice, with special focus on scenarios to be used in disaster response and response planning, and present an evaluation of how the field looks set to evolve. We also review current good practice and lessons learned from previous earthquakes with respect to planning for and responding to earthquakes in urban settings in the humanitarian sector, identifying key sectoral priorities. We then investigate the interface between these two areas to investigate the use of earthquake scenarios in disaster response planning and identify potential challenges both with respect to development of scientific models and their application on the ground.

Understanding the Effects of Urban Expansion on Spatio-temporal Variations of Vegetation Phenology at Global Scale from 1993 to 2014

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Qiu, T.; Song, C.

2017-12-01

Many studies have examined the urbanization-induced vegetation phenology changes in urban environments at regional scales. However, relatively few studies have investigated the effects of urban expansion on vegetation phenology at global scale. In this study, we used times series of NASA Vegetation Index and Phenology (VIP) and ESA Climate Change Initiative Land Cover datasets to quantify how urban expansion affects growing seasons of vegetation in 14 different biomes along both latitude and urbanization gradients from 1993 to 2014. First, we calculated the percentages of impervious surface area (ISA) at 0.05˚ grid to match the spatial resolution of VIP dataset. We then applied logistic models to the ISA series to characterize the time periods of stable ISA, pre-urbanization and post-urbanization for each grid. The amplitudes of urbanization were also derived from the fitted ISA series. We then calculated the mean values of the Start of Season (SOS), End of Season (EOS) and Length of Season (LOS) from VIP datasets within each period. Linear regressions were used to quantify the correlations between ISA and SOS/EOS/LOS in 14 biomes along the latitude gradient for each period. We also calculated the differences of SOS/EOS/LOS between pre-urbanization and post-urbanization periods and applied quantile regressions to characterize the relationships between amplitudes of urbanization and those differences. We found significant correlations (p-value < 0.05) between ISA and the growing seasons of a) boreal forests at 55-60 ˚N; b) temperate broadleaf and mixed forests at 30-55 ˚N; c) temperate coniferous forests at 30-45 ˚N; d) temperate grasslands, savannas, and shrublands at 35-60 ˚N and 30-35 ˚S. We also found a significant positive correlation (p-value <0.05) between amplitudes of urbanization and LOS as well as a significant negative correlation (p-value<0.05) between amplitudes of urbanization and SOS in temperate broadleaf and mixed forest.

Impacts of road network expansion on landscape ecological risk in a megacity, China: A case study of Beijing.

PubMed

Mo, Wenbo; Wang, Yong; Zhang, Yingxue; Zhuang, Dafang

2017-01-01

Road networks affect the spatial structure of urban landscapes, and with continuous expansion, it will also exert more widespread influences on the regional ecological environment. With the support of geographic information system (GIS) technology, based on the application of various spatial analysis methods, this study analyzed the spatiotemporal changes of road networks and landscape ecological risk in the research area of Beijing to explore the impacts of road network expansion on ecological risk in the urban landscape. The results showed the following: 1) In the dynamic processes of change in the overall landscape pattern, the changing differences in landscape indices of various landscape types were obvious and were primarily related to land-use type. 2) For the changes in a time series, the expansion of the road kernel area was consistent with the extension of the sub-low-risk area in the urban center, but some differences were observed during different stages of development. 3) For the spatial position, the expanding changes in the road kernel area were consistent with the grade changes of the urban central ecological risk, primarily because both had a certain spatial correlation with the expressways. 4) The influence of road network expansion on the ecological risk in the study area had obvious spatial differences, which may be closely associated with the distribution of ecosystem types. Copyright © 2016 Office national des forêts. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Spatiotemporal assessment and trade-offs of multiple ecosystem services based on land use changes in Zengcheng, China.

PubMed

Sun, Xiao; Li, Feng

2017-12-31

Driven by rapid urbanization, land use change has become a significant factor influencing ecosystem services (ESs). To support the decision-making process of city planners and policy makers, assessing the spatiotemporal changes associated with multiple ESs is vital. In this study, we developed a general structure to assess the changes of multiple ESs in Zengcheng, China. A new index also was developed to measure the comprehensive ecosystem service (CES). Trade-offs of various ESs were analyzed by using correlation analysis. We then designed four alternate scenarios to explore the optimal land use strategies to increase the CES value and minimize trade-offs among various ESs. Results demonstrated that rapid expansion of built-up land and traffic land resulted in a decrease of CES in Zengcheng from 2003 to 2013. Although the water supply, water purification, and vegetable and fruit production services increased, the climate regulation, soil conservation, biodiversity protection, recreation opportunity and grain production services decreased during the ten-year period. Government should implement land use policies and ecological engineering measures to improve soil conservation in the northern region; recreation opportunity in the central region; and carbon storage, water purification, biodiversity protection and recreation opportunity in the southern region. Among all alternative scenarios, woodland buffer and soil conservation scenarios exhibit the highest CES values, indicating that policies such as the "Ecological corridor construction" project and the "Grain for Green" project should be implemented. However, a caveat is that these policies improve the ESs at the expense of food production due to significant trade-off relationships. To minimize the trade-offs, a more sustainable intensification of agriculture should be adopted to increase food production without decreasing other ESs or occupying additional land. The land use strategies and ecological engineering measures in this study can provide a reliable reference for sustainable development of other urbanized regions in China. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Modeling land use change impacts on water resources in a tropical West African catchment (Dano, Burkina Faso)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yira, Y.; Diekkrüger, B.; Steup, G.; Bossa, A. Y.

2016-06-01

This study investigates the impacts of land use change on water resources in the Dano catchment, Burkina Faso, using a physically based hydrological simulation model and land use scenarios. Land use dynamic in the catchment was assessed through the analysis of four land use maps corresponding to the land use status in 1990, 2000, 2007, and 2013. A reclassification procedure levels out differences between the classification schemes of the four maps. The land use maps were used to build five land use scenarios corresponding to different levels of land use change in the catchment. Water balance was simulated by applying the Water flow and balance Simulation Model (WaSiM) using observed discharge, soil moisture, and groundwater level for model calibration and validation. Model statistical quality measures (R2, NSE and KGE) achieved during calibration and validation ranged between 0.6 and 0.9 for total discharge, soil moisture, and groundwater level, indicating a good agreement between observed and simulated variables. After a successful multivariate validation the model was applied to the land use scenarios. The land use assessment exhibited a decrease of savannah at an annual rate of 2% since 1990. Conversely, cropland and urban areas have increased. Since urban areas occupy only 3% of the catchment it can be assumed that savannah was mainly converted to cropland. The conversion rate of savannah was lower than the annual population growth of 3%. A clear increase in total discharge (+17%) and decrease in evapotranspiration (-5%) was observed following land use change in the catchment. A strong relationship was established between savannah degradation, cropland expansion, discharge increase and reduction of evapotranspiration. The increase in total discharge is related to high peak flow, suggesting (i) an increase in water resources that are not available for plant growth and human consumption and (ii) an alteration of flood risk for both the population within and downstream of the catchment.

Expansion of urban area and wastewater irrigated rice area in Hyderabad, India

USGS Publications Warehouse

Gumma, K.M.; van, Rooijen D.; Nelson, A.; Thenkabail, P.S.; Aakuraju, Radha V.; Amerasinghe, P.

2011-01-01

The goal of this study was to investigate land use changes in urban and peri-urban Hyderabad and their influence on wastewater irrigated rice using Landsat ETM + data and spectral matching techniques. The main source of irrigation water is the Musi River, which collects a large volume of wastewater and stormwater while running through the city. From 1989 to 2002, the wastewater irrigated area along the Musi River increased from 5,213 to 8,939 ha with concurrent expansion of the city boundaries from 22,690 to 42,813 ha and also decreased barren lands and range lands from 86,899 to 66,616 ha. Opportunistic shifts in land use, especially related to wastewater irrigated agriculture, were seen as a response to the demand for fresh vegetables and easy access to markets, exploited mainly by migrant populations. While wastewater irrigated agriculture contributes to income security of marginal groups, it also supplements the food basket of many city dwellers. Landsat ETM + data and advanced methods such as spectral matching techniques are ideal for quantifying urban expansion and associated land use changes, and are useful for urban planners and decision makers alike. ?? 2011 Springer Science+Business Media B.V.

Agro-forest landscape and the 'fringe' city: a multivariate assessment of land-use changes in a sprawling region and implications for planning.

PubMed

Salvati, Luca

2014-08-15

The present study evaluates the impact of urban expansion on landscape transformations in Rome's metropolitan area (1500 km(2)) during the last sixty years. Landscape composition, structure and dynamics were assessed for 1949 and 2008 by analyzing the distribution of 26 metrics for nine land-use classes. Changes in landscape structure are analysed by way of a multivariate statistical approach providing a summary measure of rapidity-to-change for each metric and class. Land fragmentation increased during the study period due to urban expansion. Poorly protected or medium-low value added classes (vineyards, arable land, olive groves and pastures) experienced fragmentation processes compared with protected or high-value added classes (e.g. forests, olive groves) showing larger 'core' areas and lower fragmentation. The relationship observed between class area and mean patch size indicates increased fragmentation for all uses of land (both expanding and declining) except for urban areas and forests. Reducing the impact of urban expansion for specific land-use classes is an effective planning strategy to contrast the simplification of Mediterranean landscape in peri-urban areas. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Analyzing the effects of urban expansion on land surface temperature patterns by landscape metrics: a case study of Isfahan city, Iran.

PubMed

Madanian, Maliheh; Soffianian, Ali Reza; Koupai, Saeid Soltani; Pourmanafi, Saeid; Momeni, Mehdi

2018-03-03

Urban expansion can cause extensive changes in land use and land cover (LULC), leading to changes in temperature conditions. Land surface temperature (LST) is one of the key parameters that should be considered in the study of urban temperature conditions. The purpose of this study was, therefore, to investigate the effects of changes in LULC due to the expansion of the city of Isfahan on LST using landscape metrics. To this aim, two Landsat 5 and Landsat 8 images, which had been acquired, respectively, on August 2, 1985, and July 4, 2015, were used. The support vector machine method was then used to classify the images. The results showed that Isfahan city had been encountered with an increase of impervious surfaces; in fact, this class covered 15% of the total area in 1985, while this value had been increased to 30% in 2015. Then LST zoning maps were created, indicating that the bare land and impervious surfaces categories were dominant in high temperature zones, while in the zones where water was present or NDVI was high, LST was low. Then, the landscape metrics in each of the LST zones were analyzed in relation to the LULC changes, showing that LULC changes due to urban expansion changed such landscape properties as the percentage of landscape, patch density, large patch index, and aggregation index. This information could be beneficial for urban planners to monitor and manage changes in the LULC patterns.

Potential impacts of urban land expansion on Asian airborne pollutant outflows

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tao, Wei; Liu, Junfeng; Ban-Weiss, George A.; Zhang, Lin; Zhang, Jiachen; Yi, Kan; Tao, Shu

2017-07-01

Eastern part of China (EPC) has experienced rapid urbanization during the past few decades. Here we investigate the impacts of urban land expansion over EPC on the export of Asian pollutants to the western Pacific during January, April, July, and October of 2009 using the Weather Research and Forecasting model coupled to Chemistry (WRF/Chem) and a single-layer urban canopy scheme. Over urbanizing areas, increases in the urban land fraction result in a linearly enhanced uplift of surface primary pollutants to higher altitudes. We further examine how this local effect would change outflows of Asian pollutants to the western Pacific using the tagged black carbon (BC) and carbon monoxide (CO) tracers emitted from EPC (denoted by BCt and COt, respectively). Overall, a 0.1 increase in the fraction of land area that is urban over EPC would linearly (R2 = 0.70-0.96) increase the mean tropospheric eastward export of BCt and COt across meridional planes (i.e., 135°E and 150°E) by 4-40% and 1-6% in different months, respectively. The relative perturbation in exporting efficiency generally maximizes during July while minimizes during April. The urbanization-export relationship is largely driven by the elevation effect and is also impacted by urbanization-forced changes in zonal winds. The spatial pattern of the response of BCt over the downwind Pacific differs from that of COt mainly due to aerosol-cloud interactions. Our findings demonstrate that extensive urban land expansion could substantially impact climate and air quality from a local scale to a regional scale, especially for shorter-lived air pollutants such as BC and other aerosols.

An integrated modeling approach for estimating hydrologic responses to future urbanization and climate changes in a mixed-use midwestern watershed.

PubMed

Sunde, Michael G; He, Hong S; Hubbart, Jason A; Urban, Michael A

2018-08-15

Future urban development and climatic changes are likely to affect hydrologic regimes in many watersheds. Quantifying potential water regime changes caused by these stressors is therefore crucial for enabling decision makers to develop viable environmental management strategies. This study presents an approach that integrates mid-21st century impervious surface growth estimates derived from the Imperviousness Change Analysis Tool with downscaled climate model projections and a hydrologic model Soil and Water Assessment Tool to characterize potential water regime changes in a mixed-use watershed in central Missouri, USA. Results for the climate change only scenario showed annual streamflow and runoff decreases (-10.7% and -9.2%) and evapotranspiration increases (+6.8%), while results from the urbanization only scenario showed streamflow and runoff increases (+3.8% and +9.3%) and evapotranspiration decreases (-2.4%). Results for the combined impacts scenario suggested that climatic changes could have a larger impact than urbanization on annual streamflow, (overall decrease of -6.1%), and could largely negate surface runoff increases caused by urbanization. For the same scenario, climatic changes exerted a stronger influence on annual evapotranspiration than urbanization (+3.9%). Seasonal results indicated that the relative influences of urbanization and climatic changes vary seasonally. Climatic changes most greatly influenced streamflow and runoff during winter and summer, and evapotranspiration during summer. During some seasons the directional change for hydrologic processes matched for both stressors. This work presented a practicable approach for investigating the relative influences of mid-21st century urbanization and climatic changes on the hydrology of a representative mixed-use watershed, adding to a limited body of research on this topic. This was done using a transferrable approach that can be adapted for watersheds in other regions. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Cells, Agents, and Support Vectors in Interaction - Modeling Urban Sprawl based on Machine Learning and Artificial Intelligence Techniques in a Post-Industrial Region

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rienow, A.; Menz, G.

2015-12-01

Since the beginning of the millennium, artificial intelligence techniques as cellular automata (CA) and multi-agent systems (MAS) have been incorporated into land-system simulations to address the complex challenges of transitions in urban areas as open, dynamic systems. The study presents a hybrid modeling approach for modeling the two antagonistic processes of urban sprawl and urban decline at once. The simulation power of support vector machines (SVM), cellular automata (CA) and multi-agent systems (MAS) are integrated into one modeling framework and applied to the largest agglomeration of Central Europe: the Ruhr. A modified version of SLEUTH (short for Slope, Land-use, Exclusion, Urban, Transport, and Hillshade) functions as the CA component. SLEUTH makes use of historic urban land-use data sets and growth coefficients for the purpose of modeling physical urban expansion. The machine learning algorithm of SVM is applied in order to enhance SLEUTH. Thus, the stochastic variability of the CA is reduced and information about the human and ecological forces driving the local suitability of urban sprawl is incorporated. Subsequently, the supported CA is coupled with the MAS ReHoSh (Residential Mobility and the Housing Market of Shrinking City Systems). The MAS models population patterns, housing prices, and housing demand in shrinking regions based on interactions between household and city agents. Semi-explicit urban weights are introduced as a possibility of modeling from and to the pixel simultaneously. Three scenarios of changing housing preferences reveal the urban development of the region in terms of quantity and location. They reflect the dissemination of sustainable thinking among stakeholders versus the steady dream of owning a house in sub- and exurban areas. Additionally, the outcomes are transferred into a digital petri dish reflecting a synthetic environment with perfect conditions of growth. Hence, the generic growth elements affecting the future face of post-industrial cities are revealed. Finally, the advantages and limitations of linking pixels and people by combining AI and machine learning techniques in a multi-scale geosimulation approach are to be discussed.

Complex Controls on Groundwater Quality in Growing Mid-sized Cities: A Case Study Focused on Nitrate and Emerging Contaminants

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ohr, C. A.; Godsey, S.; Welhan, J. A.; Larson, D. M.; Lohse, K. A.; Finney, B.; Derryberry, D.

2015-12-01

Many regions rely on quality groundwater to support urban growth. Groundwater quality often responds in a complex manner to stressors such as land use change, climate change, or policy decisions. Urban growth patterns in mid-sized cities, especially ones that are growing urban centers in water-limited regions in the western US, control and are controlled by water availability and its quality. We present a case study from southeastern Idaho where urban growth over the past 20 years has included significant ex-urban expansion of houses that rely on septic systems rather than city sewer lines for their wastewater treatment. Septic systems are designed to mitigate some contaminants, but not others. In particular, nitrates and emerging contaminants, such as pharmaceuticals, are not removed by most septic systems. Thus, even well-maintained septic systems at sufficiently high densities can impact down gradient water quality. Here we present patterns of nitrate concentrations over the period from 1985-2015 from the Lower Portneuf River Valley in southeastern Idaho. Concentrations vary from 0.03 to 27.09 nitrate-nitrogen mg/L, with average values increasing significantly over the 30 year time period from 3.15 +/- 0.065 to 3.57 +/- 0.43 mg/L. We examine temporal changes in locations of nitrate hotspots, and present pilot data on emerging contaminants of concern. Initial results suggest that high nitrate levels are generally associated with higher septic densities, but that this pattern is influenced by legacy agricultural uses and strongly controlled by underlying aquifer properties. Future work will include more detailed hydrological modeling to predict changes in hotspot locations under potential climate change scenarios.

Climate change adaptation accounting for huge uncertainties in future projections - the case of urban drainage

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Willems, Patrick

2015-04-01

Hydrological design parameters, which are currently used in the guidelines for the design of urban drainage systems (Willems et al., 2013) have been revised, taking the Flanders region of Belgium as case study. The revision involved extrapolation of the design rainfall statistics, taking into account the current knowledge on future climate change trends till 2100. Uncertainties in these trend projections have been assessed after statistically analysing and downscaling by a quantile perturbation tool based on a broad ensemble set of climate model simulation results (44 regional + 69 global control-scenario climate model run combinations for different greenhouse gas scenarios). The impact results of the climate scenarios were investigated as changes to rainfall intensity-duration-frequency (IDF) curves. Thereafter, the climate scenarios and related changes in rainfall statistics were transferred to changes in flood frequencies of sewer systems and overflow frequencies of storage facilities. This has been done based on conceptual urban drainage models. Also the change in storage capacity required to exceed a given overflow return period, has been calculated for a range of return periods and infiltration or throughflow rates. These results were used on the basis of the revision of the hydraulic design rules of urban drainage systems. One of the major challenges while formulating these policy guidelines was the consideration of the huge uncertainties in the future climate change projections and impact assessments; see also the difficulties and pitfalls reported by the IWA/IAHR Joint Committee on Urban Drainage - Working group on urban rainfall (Willems et al., 2012). We made use of the risk concept, and found it a very useful approach to deal with the high uncertainties. It involves an impact study of the different climate projections, or - for practical reasons - a reduced set of climate scenarios tailored for the specific type of impact considered (urban floods in our case study), following the approach proposed by Ntegeka et al. (2014). When the consequences of given scenarios are high, they should be taken into account in the decision making process. For the Flanders' guidelines, it was agreed among the members of the regional Coordination Commission Integrated Water Management to consider (in addition to the traditional range of return periods up to 5 years) a 20-year design storm for scenario investigation. It was motivated by the outcome of this study that under the high climate scenario a 20-year storm would become - in order of magnitude - a 5-year storm. If after a design for a 5-year storm, the 20-year scenario investigation would conclude that specific zones along the sewer system would have severe additional impacts, it is recommended to apply changes to the system or to design flexible adaptation measures for the future (depending on which of the options would be most cost-efficient). Another adaptation action agreed was the installation of storm water infiltration devices at private houses and make these mandatory for new and renovated houses. Such installation was found to be cost-effective in any of the climate scenario's. This is one way of dealing with climate uncertainties, but lessons learned from other cases/applications are highly welcomed. References Ntegeka, V., Baguis, P., Roulin, E., Willems, P. (2014), 'Developing tailored climate change scenarios for hydrological impact assessments', Journal of Hydrology, 508C, 307-321 Willems, P. (2013). 'Revision of urban drainage design rules after assessment of climate change impacts on precipitation extremes at Uccle, Belgium', Journal of Hydrology, 496, 166-177 Willems, P., Arnbjerg-Nielsen, K., Olsson, J., Nguyen, V.T.V. (2012), 'Climate change impact assessment on urban rainfall extremes and urban drainage: methods and shortcomings', Atmospheric Research, 103, 106-118

Assessment of urban pluvial flood risk and efficiency of adaptation options through simulations - A new generation of urban planning tools

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Löwe, Roland; Urich, Christian; Sto. Domingo, Nina; Mark, Ole; Deletic, Ana; Arnbjerg-Nielsen, Karsten

2017-07-01

We present a new framework for flexible testing of flood risk adaptation strategies in a variety of urban development and climate scenarios. This framework couples the 1D-2D hydrodynamic simulation package MIKE FLOOD with the agent-based urban development model DAnCE4Water and provides the possibility to systematically test various flood risk adaptation measures ranging from large infrastructure changes over decentralised water management to urban planning policies. We have tested the framework in a case study in Melbourne, Australia considering 9 scenarios for urban development and climate and 32 potential combinations of flood adaptation measures. We found that the performance of adaptation measures strongly depended on the considered climate and urban development scenario and the other implementation measures implemented, suggesting that adaptive strategies are preferable over one-off investments. Urban planning policies proved to be an efficient means for the reduction of flood risk, while implementing property buyback and pipe increases in a guideline-oriented manner was too costly. Random variations in location and time point of urban development could have significant impact on flood risk and would in some cases outweigh the benefits of less efficient adaptation strategies. The results of our setup can serve as an input for robust decision making frameworks and thus support the identification of flood risk adaptation measures that are economically efficient and robust to variations of climate and urban layout.

Impacts of climate change and renewable energy development on habitat of an endemic squirrel, Xerospermophilus mohavensis, in the Mojave Desert, USA

USGS Publications Warehouse

Inman, Richard D.; Esque, Todd C.; Nussear, Kenneth E.; Leitner, Philip; Matocq, Marjorie D.; Weisberg, Peter J.; Dilts, Thomas E.

2016-01-01

Predicting changes in species distributions under a changing climate is becoming widespread with the use of species distribution models (SDMs). The resulting predictions of future potential habitat can be cast in light of planned land use changes, such as urban expansion and energy development to identify areas with potential conflict. However, SDMs rarely incorporate an understanding of dispersal capacity, and therefore assume unlimited dispersal in potential range shifts under uncertain climate futures. We use SDMs to predict future distributions of the Mojave ground squirrel, Xerospermophilus mohavensis Merriam, and incorporate partial dispersal models informed by field data on juvenile dispersal to assess projected impact of climate change and energy development on future distributions of X. mohavensis. Our models predict loss of extant habitat, but also concurrent gains of new habitat under two scenarios of future climate change. Under the B1 emissions scenario- a storyline describing a convergent world with emphasis on curbing greenhouse gas emissions- our models predicted losses of up to 64% of extant habitat by 2080, while under the increased greenhouse gas emissions of the A2 scenario, we suggest losses of 56%. New potential habitat may become available to X. mohavensis, thereby offsetting as much as 6330 km2 (50%) of the current habitat lost. Habitat lost due to planned energy development was marginal compared to habitat lost from changing climates, but disproportionately affected current habitat. Future areas of overlap in potential habitat between the two climate change scenarios are identified and discussed in context of proposed energy development.

Developing spatially explicit footprints of plausible land-use scenarios in the Santa Cruz Watershed, Arizona and Sonora

USGS Publications Warehouse

Norman, Laura M.; Feller, Mark; Villarreal, Miguel L.

2012-01-01

The SLEUTH urban growth model is applied to a binational dryland watershed to envision and evaluate plausible future scenarios of land use change into the year 2050. Our objective was to create a suite of geospatial footprints portraying potential land use change that can be used to aid binational decision-makers in assessing the impacts relative to sustainability of natural resources and potential socio-ecological consequences of proposed land-use management. Three alternatives are designed to simulate different conditions: (i) a Current Trends Scenario of unmanaged exponential growth, (ii) a Conservation Scenario with managed growth to protect the environment, and (iii) a Megalopolis Scenario in which growth is accentuated around a defined international trade corridor. The model was calibrated with historical data extracted from a time series of satellite images. Model materials, methodology, and results are presented. Our Current Trends Scenario predicts the footprint of urban growth to approximately triple from 2009 to 2050, which is corroborated by local population estimates. The Conservation Scenario results in protecting 46% more of the Evergreen class (more than 150,000 acres) than the Current Trends Scenario and approximately 95,000 acres of Barren Land, Crops, Deciduous Forest (Mesquite Bosque), Grassland/Herbaceous, Urban/Recreational Grasses, and Wetlands classes combined. The Megalopolis Scenario results also depict the preservation of some of these land-use classes compared to the Current Trends Scenario, most notably in the environmentally important headwaters region. Connectivity and areal extent of land cover types that provide wildlife habitat were preserved under the alternative scenarios when compared to Current Trends.

Role Assessment of GIS Analysis and its Reliability while Ranking Urban Sustainability Using Scenarios Specific to Regional Climate, Community and Culture

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Salmi, H. Al; Abdulmuttalib, H. M.

2012-07-01

Urban Sustainability expresses the level of conservation of a city while living a town or consuming its urban resources, but the measurement of urban sustainability depends on what are considered important indicators of conservation besides the permitted levels of consumption in accordance with adopted criteria. This criterion should have common factors that are shared for all the members tested or cities to be evaluated as in this particular case for Abu Dhabi, but also have specific factors that are related to the geographic place, community and culture, that is the measures of urban sustainability specific to a middle east climate, community and culture where GIS Vector and Raster analysis have a role or add a value in urban sustainability measurements or grading are considered herein. Scenarios were tested using various GIS data types to replicate urban history (ten years period), current status and expected future of Abu Dhabi City setting factors to climate, community needs and culture. The useful Vector or Raster GIS data sets that are related to every scenario where selected and analysed in the sense of how and how much it can benefit the urban sustainability ranking in quantity and quality tests, this besides assessing the suitable data nature, type and format, the important topology rules to be considered, the useful attributes to be added, the relationships which should be maintained between data types of a geo- database, and specify its usage in a specific scenario test, then setting weights to each and every data type representing some elements of a phenomenon related to urban suitability factor. The results of assessing the role of GIS analysis provided data collection specifications such as the measures of accuracy reliable to a certain type of GIS functional analysis used in an urban sustainability ranking scenario tests. This paper reflects the prior results of the research that is conducted to test the multidiscipline evaluation of urban sustainability using different indicator metrics, that implement vector GIS Analysis and Raster GIS analysis as basic tools to assist the evaluation and increase of its reliability besides assessing and decomposing it, after which a hypothetical implementation of the chosen evaluation model represented by various scenarios was implemented on the planned urban sustainability factors for a certain period of time to appraise the expected future grade of urban sustainability and come out with advises associated with scenarios for assuring gap filling and relative high urban future sustainability. The results this paper is reflecting are concentrating on the elements of vector and raster GIS analysis that assists the proper urban sustainability grading within the chosen model, the reliability of spatial data collected; analysis selected and resulted spatial information. Starting from selecting some important indicators to comprise the model which include regional culture, climate and community needs an example of what was used is Energy Demand & Consumption (Cooling systems). Thus, this factor is related to the climate and it's regional specific as the temperature varies around 30-45 degrees centigrade in city areas, GIS 3D Polygons of building data used to analyse the volume of buildings, attributes "building heights", estimate the number of floors from the equation, following energy demand was calculated and consumption for the unit volume, and compared it in scenario with possible sustainable energy supply or using different environmental friendly cooling systems this is followed by calculating the cooling system effects on an area unit selected to be 1 sq. km, combined with the level of greenery area, and open space, as represented by parks polygons, trees polygons, empty areas, pedestrian polygons and road surface area polygons. (initial measures showed that cooling system consumption can be reduced by around 15-20% with a well-planned building distributions, proper spaces and with using environmental friendly products and building material, temperature levels were also combined in the scenario extracted from satellite images as interpreted from thermal bands 3 times during the period of assessment. Other examples of the assessment of GIS analysis to urban sustainability took place included Waste Productivity, some effects of greenhouse gases measured by the intensity of road polygons and closeness to dwelling areas, industry areas as defined from land use land cover thematic maps produced from classified satellite images then vectors were created to take part in defining their role within the scenarios. City Noise and light intensity assessment was also investigated, as the region experiences rapid development and noise is magnified due to construction activities, closeness of the airports, and highways. The assessment investigated the measures taken by urban planners to reduce degradation or properly manage it. Finally as a conclusion tables were presented to reflect the scenario results in combination with GIS data types, analysis types, and the level of GIS data reliability to measure the sustainability level of a city related to cultural and regional demands.

Golden Ratio Genetic Algorithm Based Approach for Modelling and Analysis of the Capacity Expansion of Urban Road Traffic Network

PubMed Central

Zhang, Lun; Zhang, Meng; Yang, Wenchen; Dong, Decun

2015-01-01

This paper presents the modelling and analysis of the capacity expansion of urban road traffic network (ICURTN). Thebilevel programming model is first employed to model the ICURTN, in which the utility of the entire network is maximized with the optimal utility of travelers' route choice. Then, an improved hybrid genetic algorithm integrated with golden ratio (HGAGR) is developed to enhance the local search of simple genetic algorithms, and the proposed capacity expansion model is solved by the combination of the HGAGR and the Frank-Wolfe algorithm. Taking the traditional one-way network and bidirectional network as the study case, three numerical calculations are conducted to validate the presented model and algorithm, and the primary influencing factors on extended capacity model are analyzed. The calculation results indicate that capacity expansion of road network is an effective measure to enlarge the capacity of urban road network, especially on the condition of limited construction budget; the average computation time of the HGAGR is 122 seconds, which meets the real-time demand in the evaluation of the road network capacity. PMID:25802512

An econometric analysis of changes in arable land utilization using multinomial logit model in Pinggu district, Beijing, China.

PubMed

Xu, Yueqing; McNamara, Paul; Wu, Yanfang; Dong, Yue

2013-10-15

Arable land in China has been decreasing as a result of rapid population growth and economic development as well as urban expansion, especially in developed regions around cities where quality farmland quickly disappears. This paper analyzed changes in arable land utilization during 1993-2008 in the Pinggu district, Beijing, China, developed a multinomial logit (MNL) model to determine spatial driving factors influencing arable land-use change, and simulated arable land transition probabilities. Land-use maps, as well as social-economic and geographical data were used in the study. The results indicated that arable land decreased significantly between 1993 and 2008. Lost arable land shifted into orchard, forestland, settlement, and transportation land. Significant differences existed for arable land transitions among different landform areas. Slope, elevation, population density, urbanization rate, distance to settlements, and distance to roadways were strong drivers influencing arable land transition to other uses. The MNL model was proved effective for predicting transition probabilities in land use from arable land to other land-use types, thus can be used for scenario analysis to develop land-use policies and land-management measures in this metropolitan area. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Potential Impacts of Urban Land Expansion on Asian Outflows of Air Pollutants

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wei, T.; Liu, J.; Tao, S.; Ban-Weiss, G. A.

2016-12-01

We investigate the impacts of urban land expansion over Eastern China (EC) on the export of black carbon (BC), carbon monoxide (CO) and ozone (O3) to the West Pacific during the January, April, July and October of 2009, using WRF/Chem model coupled with the tracers tagging technique and an up-to-date single layer urban canopy scheme updated with the treatment of urban hydrological processes. Our model simulations could reproduce well the vertical profiles of Asian outflows of BC and CO observed during the A-FORCE period (March to April of 2009). Over urbanizing areas, increment in urban land fraction could linearly elevate primary pollutants from the lower boundary layer to higher altitudes, and perturb the thermal, hydrological, and kinetic exchange processes between land surface and the atmosphere aloft through all seasons (such local impacts highest in July but lowest in January). Furthermore, we find robust linear relationships exist between urban land fraction (averaged over EC) and export of BC emitted from EC across meridional planes over the western Pacific (e.g., 140 °E). Specifically, each 10% increase in urban land fraction over EC enhances the eastward mass fluxes of BC by about 5%-10% in January and July, and 10%-20% in April and October, respectively, in the free troposphere, which is the dominant pathway for Asian outflows. Such a linear relationship is relatively weaker for CO and only appears in April and October. The different response patterns between BC and CO arise from their distinct physical and chemical properties. Even with decreased vegetation (and reduced biogenic emissions), the O3­ concentrations at the surface and 800 hPa over urbanizing areas both tend to increase. However, no clear trend is observed for the export of O3 over West Pacific for all four months. Urban land expansion facilitates the uplift of local pollutants, but also changes the large-scale circulation pattern (the perturbation cyclone over the downwind Pacific acts to impede the eastward transpacific transport), both playing important roles on the efficiency that Asian emissions are exported. Our finding indicates that the extensive urban land expansion would significantly impact the local climate and air quality, which also have a large impact on long-range transboundary transport.

Forecasting the combined effects of urbanization and climate change on stream ecosystems: from impacts to management options

PubMed Central

Nelson, Kären C; Palmer, Margaret A; Pizzuto, James E; Moglen, Glenn E; Angermeier, Paul L; Hilderbrand, Robert H; Dettinger, Michael; Hayhoe, Katharine

2009-01-01

Streams collect runoff, heat, and sediment from their watersheds, making them highly vulnerable to anthropogenic disturbances such as urbanization and climate change. Forecasting the effects of these disturbances using process-based models is critical to identifying the form and magnitude of likely impacts. Here, we integrate a new biotic model with four previously developed physical models (downscaled climate projections, stream hydrology, geomorphology, and water temperature) to predict how stream fish growth and reproduction will most probably respond to shifts in climate and urbanization over the next several decades. The biotic submodel couples dynamics in fish populations and habitat suitability to predict fish assemblage composition, based on readily available biotic information (preferences for habitat, temperature, and food, and characteristics of spawning) and day-to-day variability in stream conditions. We illustrate the model using Piedmont headwater streams in the Chesapeake Bay watershed of the USA, projecting ten scenarios: Baseline (low urbanization; no on-going construction; and present-day climate); one Urbanization scenario (higher impervious surface, lower forest cover, significant construction activity); four future climate change scenarios [Hadley CM3 and Parallel Climate Models under medium-high (A2) and medium-low (B2) emissions scenarios]; and the same four climate change scenarios plus Urbanization. Urbanization alone depressed growth or reproduction of 8 of 39 species, while climate change alone depressed 22 to 29 species. Almost every recreationally important species (i.e. trouts, basses, sunfishes) and six of the ten currently most common species were predicted to be significantly stressed. The combined effect of climate change and urbanization on adult growth was sometimes large compared to the effect of either stressor alone. Thus, the model predicts considerable change in fish assemblage composition, including loss of diversity. Synthesis and applications. The interaction of climate change and urban growth may entail significant reconfiguring of headwater streams, including a loss of ecosystem structure and services, which will be more costly than climate change alone. On local scales, stakeholders cannot control climate drivers but they can mitigate stream impacts via careful land use. Therefore, to conserve stream ecosystems, we recommend that proactive measures be taken to insure against species loss or severe population declines. Delays will inevitably exacerbate the impacts of both climate change and urbanization on headwater systems. PMID:19536343

Integrated climate/land use/hydrological change scenarios for assessing threats to ecosystem services on California rangelands

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Byrd, K. B.; Flint, L. E.; Casey, C. F.; Alvarez, P.; Sleeter, B. M.; Sohl, T.

2013-12-01

In California there are over 18 million acres of rangelands in the Central Valley and the interior Coast Range, most of which are privately owned and managed for livestock production. Ranches provide extensive wildlife habitat and generate multiple ecosystem services that carry considerable market and non-market values. These rangelands are under pressure from urbanization and conversion to intensive agriculture, as well as from climate change that can alter the flow of these services. To understand the coupled and isolated impacts of land use and climate change on rangeland ecosystem services, we developed six spatially explicit (250 m) coupled climate/land use/hydrological change scenarios for the Central Valley and oak woodland regions of California consistent with three IPCC emission scenarios - A2, A1B and B1. Three land use land cover (LULC) change scenarios were each integrated with two downscaled global climate models (GCMs) (a warm, wet future and a hot, dry future) and related hydrologic data. We used these scenarios to quantify wildlife habitat, water supply (recharge potential and streamflow) and carbon sequestration on rangelands and to conduct an economic analysis associated with changes in these benefits. The USGS FOREcasting SCEnarios of land-use change model (FORE-SCE), which runs dynamically with downscaled GCM outputs, was used to generate maps of yearly LULC change for each scenario from 2006 to 2100. We used the USGS Basin Characterization Model (BCM), a regional water balance model, to generate change in runoff, recharge, and stream discharge based on land use change and climate change. Metrics derived from model outputs were generated at the landscape scale and for six case-study watersheds. At the landscape scale, over a quarter of the million acres set aside for conservation in the B1 scenario would otherwise be converted to agriculture in the A2 scenario, where temperatures increase by up to 4.5 °C compared to 1.3 °C in the B1 scenario. A comparison of two watersheds - Alameda Creek, an urbanized watershed, and Upper Stony Creek, impacted by intensified agriculture, demonstrates the relative contribution of urbanization and climate change to water supply. In Upper Stony Creek, where 24% of grassland is converted to agriculture in the A1B scenario, a hotter, dryer 4-year time period could lead to a 40% reduction in streamflow compared to present day. In Alameda Creek, for the same scenario, 47% of grassland is converted to urbanized lands and streamflow may increase by 11%, resulting in a recharge:runoff ratio of 0.26; though if urbanization does not take place, streamflow could decrease by 64% and the recharge:runoff ratio would be 1.2. Model outputs quantify the impact of urbanization on water supply and show the importance of soil storage capacity. Scenarios have applications for climate-smart conservation and land use planning by identifying outcomes associated with coupled future land use scenarios and more variable and extreme potential future climates.

Coupling long and short term decisions in the design of urban water supply infrastructure for added reliability and flexibility

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Marques, G.; Fraga, C. C. S.; Medellin-Azuara, J.

2016-12-01

The expansion and operation of urban water supply systems under growing demands, hydrologic uncertainty and water scarcity requires a strategic combination of supply sources for reliability, reduced costs and improved operational flexibility. The design and operation of such portfolio of water supply sources involves integration of long and short term planning to determine what and when to expand, and how much to use of each supply source accounting for interest rates, economies of scale and hydrologic variability. This research presents an integrated methodology coupling dynamic programming optimization with quadratic programming to optimize the expansion (long term) and operations (short term) of multiple water supply alternatives. Lagrange Multipliers produced by the short-term model provide a signal about the marginal opportunity cost of expansion to the long-term model, in an iterative procedure. A simulation model hosts the water supply infrastructure and hydrologic conditions. Results allow (a) identification of trade offs between cost and reliability of different expansion paths and water use decisions; (b) evaluation of water transfers between urban supply systems; and (c) evaluation of potential gains by reducing water system losses as a portfolio component. The latter is critical in several developing countries where water supply system losses are high and often neglected in favor of more system expansion.

Optimal Expansion of a Drinking Water Infrastructure System with Respect to Carbon Footprint, Cost Effectiveness and Water Demand

EPA Science Inventory

Urban water infrastructure requires careful long-term expansion planning to reduce the risk from climate change during both the periods of economic boom and recession. As part of the adaptation management strategies, capacity expansion in concert with other management alternativ...

Integrated transportation scenario planning.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2010-07-01

Regional land usetransportation scenario planning emerged as a planning technique in U.S. : metropolitan areas in the 1990s. Building on prior work by this research team, this study continues : to track the development and expansion of regional sc...

Impacts of climate change on cropping patterns in a tropical, sub-humid watershed

PubMed Central

Zwart, Sander J.; Hein, Lars

2018-01-01

In recent decades, there have been substantial increases in crop production in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) as a result of higher yields, increased cropping intensity, expansion of irrigated cropping systems, and rainfed cropland expansion. Yet, to date much of the research focus of the impact of climate change on crop production in the coming decades has been on crop yield responses. In this study, we analyse the impact of climate change on the potential for increasing rainfed cropping intensity through sequential cropping and irrigation expansion in central Benin. Our approach combines hydrological modelling and scenario analysis involving two Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs), two water-use scenarios for the watershed based on the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs), and environmental water requirements leading to sustained streamflow. Our analyses show that in Benin, warmer temperatures will severely limit crop production increases achieved through the expansion of sequential cropping. Depending on the climate change scenario, between 50% and 95% of cultivated areas that can currently support sequential cropping or will need to revert to single cropping. The results also show that the irrigation potential of the watershed will be at least halved by mid-century in all scenario combinations. Given the urgent need to increase crop production to meet the demands of a growing population in SSA, our study outlines challenges and the need for planned development that need to be overcome to improve food security in the coming decades. PMID:29513753

Global scenarios of urban density and its impacts on building energy use through 2050.

PubMed

Güneralp, Burak; Zhou, Yuyu; Ürge-Vorsatz, Diana; Gupta, Mukesh; Yu, Sha; Patel, Pralit L; Fragkias, Michail; Li, Xiaoma; Seto, Karen C

2017-08-22

Although the scale of impending urbanization is well-acknowledged, we have a limited understanding of how urban forms will change and what their impact will be on building energy use. Using both top-down and bottom-up approaches and scenarios, we examine building energy use for heating and cooling. Globally, the energy use for heating and cooling by the middle of the century will be between 45 and 59 exajoules per year (corresponding to an increase of 7-40% since 2010). Most of this variability is due to the uncertainty in future urban densities of rapidly growing cities in Asia and particularly China. Dense urban development leads to less urban energy use overall. Waiting to retrofit the existing built environment until markets are ready in about 5 years to widely deploy the most advanced renovation technologies leads to more savings in building energy use. Potential for savings in energy use is greatest in China when coupled with efficiency gains. Advanced efficiency makes the least difference compared with the business-as-usual scenario in South Asia and Sub-Saharan Africa but significantly contributes to energy savings in North America and Europe. Systemic efforts that focus on both urban form, of which urban density is an indicator, and energy-efficient technologies, but that also account for potential co-benefits and trade-offs with human well-being can contribute to both local and global sustainability. Particularly in growing cities in the developing world, such efforts can improve the well-being of billions of urban residents and contribute to mitigating climate change by reducing energy use in urban areas.

Implications of rural-urban migration for conservation of the Atlantic Forest and urban growth in Misiones, Argentina (1970-2030).

PubMed

Izquierdo, Andrea E; Grau, Héctor R; Aide, T Mitchell

2011-05-01

Global trends of increasing rural-urban migration and population urbanization could provide opportunities for nature conservation, particularly in regions where deforestation is driven by subsistence agriculture. We analyzed the role of rural population as a driver of deforestation and its contribution to urban population growth from 1970 to the present in the Atlantic Forest of Argentina, a global conservation priority. We created future land-use-cover scenarios based on human demographic parameters and the relationship between rural population and land-cover change between 1970 and 2006. In 2006, native forest covered 50% of the province, but by 2030 all scenarios predicted a decrease that ranged from 18 to 39% forest cover. Between 1970 and 2001, rural migrants represented 20% of urban population growth and are expected to represent less than 10% by 2030. This modeling approach shows how rural-urban migration and land-use planning can favor nature conservation with little impact on urban areas.

Fractal simulation of urbanization for the analysis of vulnerability to natural hazards

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Puissant, Anne; Sensier, Antoine; Tannier, Cécile; Malet, Jean-Philippe

2016-04-01

Since 50 years, mountain areas are affected by important land cover/use changes characterized by the decrease of pastoral activities, reforestation and urbanization with the development of tourism activities and infrastructures. These natural and anthropogenic transformations have an impact on the socio-economic activities but also on the exposure of the communities to natural hazards. In the context of the ANR Project SAMCO which aims at enhancing the overall resilience of societies on the impacts of mountain risks, the objective of this research was to help to determine where to locate new residential developments for different scenarios of land cover/use (based on the Prelude European Project) for the years 2030 and 2050. The Planning Support System (PSS), called MUP-City, based on a fractal multi-scale modeling approach is used because it allows taking into account local accessibility to some urban and rural amenities (Tannier et al., 2012). For this research, an experiment is performed on a mountain area in the French Alps (Barcelonnette Basin) to generate three scenarios of urban development with MUP-City at the scale of 1:10:000. The results are assessed by comparing the localization of residential developments with urban areas predicted by land cover and land use scenarios generated by cellular automata modelling (LCM and Dyna-clue) (Puissant et al., 2015). Based on these scenarios, the evolution of vulnerability is estimated.

Developing a stochastic conflict resolution model for urban runoff quality management: Application of info-gap and bargaining theories

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ghodsi, Seyed Hamed; Kerachian, Reza; Estalaki, Siamak Malakpour; Nikoo, Mohammad Reza; Zahmatkesh, Zahra

2016-02-01

In this paper, two deterministic and stochastic multilateral, multi-issue, non-cooperative bargaining methodologies are proposed for urban runoff quality management. In the proposed methodologies, a calibrated Storm Water Management Model (SWMM) is used to simulate stormwater runoff quantity and quality for different urban stormwater runoff management scenarios, which have been defined considering several Low Impact Development (LID) techniques. In the deterministic methodology, the best management scenario, representing location and area of LID controls, is identified using the bargaining model. In the stochastic methodology, uncertainties of some key parameters of SWMM are analyzed using the info-gap theory. For each water quality management scenario, robustness and opportuneness criteria are determined based on utility functions of different stakeholders. Then, to find the best solution, the bargaining model is performed considering a combination of robustness and opportuneness criteria for each scenario based on utility function of each stakeholder. The results of applying the proposed methodology in the Velenjak urban watershed located in the northeastern part of Tehran, the capital city of Iran, illustrate its practical utility for conflict resolution in urban water quantity and quality management. It is shown that the solution obtained using the deterministic model cannot outperform the result of the stochastic model considering the robustness and opportuneness criteria. Therefore, it can be concluded that the stochastic model, which incorporates the main uncertainties, could provide more reliable results.

Spatial Growth Modeling and High Resolution Remote Sensing Data Coupled with Air Quality Modeling to Assess the Impact of Atlanta, Georgia on the Local and Regional Environment

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Quattrochi, Dale A.; Estes, Maurice G., Jr.; Crosson, William; Johnson, Hoyt; Khan, Maudood

2006-01-01

The growth of cities, both in population and areal extent, appears as an inexorable process. Urbanization continues at a rapid rate, and it is estimated that by the year 2025, 60 percent of the world s population will live in cities. Urban expansion has profound impacts on a host of biophysical, environmental, and atmospheric processes within an urban ecosystems perspective. A reduction in air quality over cities is a major result of these impacts. Because of its complexity, the urban landscape is not adequately captured in air quality models such as the Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ) model that is used to assess whether urban areas are in attainment of EPA air quality standards, primarily for ground level ozone. This inadequacy of the CMAQ model to sufficiently respond to the heterogeneous nature of the urban landscape can impact how well the model predicts ozone levels over metropolitan areas and ultimately, whether cities exceed EPA ozone air quality standards. We are exploring the utility of high-resolution remote sensing data and urban spatial growth modeling (SGM) projections as improved inputs to a meteorological/air quality modeling system focusing on the Atlanta, Georgia metropolitan area as a case study. These growth projections include business as usual and smart growth scenarios out to 2030. The growth projections illustrate the effects of employing urban heat island mitigation strategies, such as increasing tree canopy and albedo across the Atlanta metro area, which in turn, are used to model how air temperature can potentially be moderated as impacts on elevating ground-level ozone, as opposed to not utilizing heat island mitigation strategies. The National Land Cover Dataset at 30m resolution is being used as the land use/land cover input and aggregated to the 4km scale for the MM5 mesoscale meteorological model and the CMAQ modeling schemes. Use of these data has been found to better characterize low density/suburban development as compared with USGS lkm land use/land cover data that have traditionally been used in modeling. Air quality prediction for future scenarios to 2030 is being facilitated by land use projections using a spatial growth model. Land use projections were developed using the 2030 Regional Transportation Plan developed by the Atlanta Regional Commission, the regional planning agency for the area. This allows the Georgia Environmental Protection Division to evaluate how these transportation plans will affect future air quality. The coupled SGM and air quality modeling approach provides insight on what the impacts of Atlanta s growth will be on the local and regional environment and exists as a mechanism that can be used by policy makers to make rational decisions on urban growth and sustainability for the metropolitan area in the future.

Remote Sensing and Spatial Growth Modeling Coupled With Air Quality Modeling to Assess the Impact of Atlanta, Georgia on the Local and Regional Environment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Quattrochi, D. A.; Estes, M. G.; Crosson, W. L.; Johnson, H.; Khan, M.

2006-05-01

The growth of cities, both in population and areal extent, appears as an inexorable process. Urbanization continues at a rapid rate, and it is estimated that by the year 2025, 60 percent of the world's population will live in cities. Urban expansion has profound impacts on a host of biophysical, environmental, and atmospheric processes within an urban ecosystems perspective. A reduction in air quality over cities is a major result of these impacts. Because of its complexity, the urban landscape is not adequately captured in air quality models such as the Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ) model that is used to assess whether urban areas are in attainment of EPA air quality standards, primarily for ground level ozone. This inadequacy of the CMAQ model to sufficiently respond to the heterogeneous nature of the urban landscape can impact how well the model predicts ozone levels over metropolitan areas and ultimately, whether cities exceed EPA ozone air quality standards. We are exploring the utility of high-resolution remote sensing data and urban spatial growth modeling (SGM) projections as improved inputs to a meteorological/air quality modeling system focusing on the Atlanta, Georgia metropolitan area as a case study. These growth projections include "business as usual" and "smart growth" scenarios out to 2030. The growth projections illustrate the effects of employing urban heat island mitigation strategies, such as increasing tree canopy and albedo across the Atlanta metro area, which in turn, are used to model how air temperature can potentially be moderated as impacts on elevating ground-level ozone, as opposed to not utilizing heat island mitigation strategies. The National Land Cover Dataset at 30m resolution is being used as the land use/land cover input and aggregated to the 4km scale for the MM5 mesoscale meteorological model and the CMAQ modeling schemes. Use of these data has been found to better characterize low density/suburban development as compared with USGS 1km land use/land cover data that have traditionally been used in modeling. Air quality prediction for future scenarios to 2030 is being facilitated by land use projections using a spatial growth model. Land use projections were developed using the 2030 Regional Transportation Plan developed by the Atlanta Regional Commission, the regional planning agency for the area. This allows the Georgia Environmental Protection Division to evaluate how these transportation plans will affect future air quality. The coupled SGM and air quality modeling approach provides insight on what the impacts of Atlanta's growth will be on the local and regional environment and exists as a mechanism that can be used by policy makers to make rational decisions on urban growth and sustainability for the metropolitan area in the future.

Will urban expansion lead to an increase in future water pollution loads?--a preliminary investigation of the Haihe River Basin in northeastern China.

PubMed

Dong, Yang; Liu, Yi; Chen, Jining

2014-01-01

Urban expansion is a major driving force changing regional hydrology and nonpoint source pollution. The Haihe River Basin, the political, economic, and cultural center of northeastern China, has undergone rapid urbanization in recent decades. To investigate the consequences of future urban sprawl on nonpoint source water pollutant emissions in the river basin, the urban sprawl in 2030 was estimated, and the annual runoff and nonpoint source pollution in the Haihe River basin were simulated. The Integrated Model of Non-Point Sources Pollution Processes (IMPULSE) was used to simulate the effects of urban sprawl on nonpoint source pollution emissions. The outcomes indicated that the urban expansion through 2030 increased the nonpoint source total nitrogen (TN), total phosphorous (TP), and chemical oxygen demand (COD) emissions by 8.08, 0.14, and 149.57 kg/km(2), respectively. Compared to 2008, the total nonpoint emissions rose by 15.33, 0.57, and 12.39 %, respectively. Twelve percent of the 25 cities in the basin would increase by more than 50 % in nonpoint source TN and COD emissions in 2030. In particular, the nonpoint source TN emissions in Xinxiang, Jiaozuo, and Puyang would rise by 73.31, 67.25, and 58.61 %, and the nonpoint source COD emissions in these cities would rise by 74.02, 51.99, and 53.27 %, respectively. The point source pollution emissions in 2008 and 2030 were also estimated to explore the effects of urban sprawl on total water pollution loads. Urban sprawl through 2030 would bring significant structural changes of total TN, TP, and COD emissions for each city in the area. The results of this study could provide insights into the effects of urbanization in the study area and the methods could help to recognize the role that future urban sprawl plays in the total water pollution loads in the water quality management process.

Potential for use of environmental factors in urban planning

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Teixeira da Silva, Ricardo; van der Ploeg, Martine; van Delden, Hedwig; Fleskens, Luuk

2016-04-01

Projections for population growth estimate, on top of the current 7.4 billion world population, an increase of 2 billion people for the next 40 years. It is also projected that 66 per cent of the world population in 2050 will live in urban areas. To accommodate the urban population growth cities are changing continuously land cover to urban areas. Such changes are a threat for natural resources and food production systems stability and capability to provide food and other functions. However, little has been done concerning a rational soil management for food production in urban and peri-urban areas. This study focuses on the assessment of soil lost due to urban expansion and discusses the potential loss regarding the quality of the soil for food production and environmental functions. It is relevant to increase the knowledge on the role of soils in peri-urban areas and in the interaction of physical, environmental and social factors. The methodology consists of assessing the soil quality in and around urban and peri-urban areas. It focuses particularly on the physical properties and the environmental factors, for two periods of time and account the potential losses due to urban expansion. This project is on-going, therefore current advances will be presented and will look for a discussion on the contribution of soil quality for decision-making and land management in urban and peri-urban areas.

Tolerance to road salt deicers in chronically exposed urban pond communities

EPA Science Inventory

Freshwater salinization is a concern in urban aquatic ecosystems that receive road salt runoff from vast expanses of impervious surface cover. Our study was designed to evaluate the effects of chloride contamination on urban stormwater pond food webs and to assess the tolerance o...

Projected Impact of Urban Growth on Climate Change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Amato, Federico; Murgante, Beniamino; Martellozzo, Federico

2017-04-01

Human activities on land use such as intensive agricultural techniques and urbanization are generating a number of social and economic benefit for contemporary society. Besides, these phenomena are one of the most significant causes of Land Degradation. Firstly, intensive agriculture is on the one hand creating an advantage in the short-period in terms of food production, while on the other is producing serious long-period problems in terms of loss of ecosystem services, including some important for agriculture itself. Secondly, the rapid growth of urban areas in recent decades is generating deep environmental issues. The World Urbanization Prospect by the United Nations (UN) shows that more than half of the world's population today (54%) lives in urban areas. This figure was only 30% in 1950, and estimates are that it will rise to 66% by 2050. Urban growth is responsible for the increase of air pollution, waste production, energy consumption, and land take. Moreover, the expansion of urban areas is making the problem of urban heat islands more relevant, and studies are proving how land cover changes are among the main factors that affect local microclimates. Consequently, territorial planning will play an important role in the fight to mitigate the effects of climate change, as land cover has a significant impact on the energy exchanges between the earth and the atmosphere. This study couples urban growth simulation models based on cellular automata to multiple linear regression techniques that are used to formulate equations for predicting the effects of simulated urban development on soil surface temperature. The proposed methodology is applied to the case study of the Italian national territory, considering various alternative scenarios of land use changes and of their impact on local surface temperatures. The results show that the areas with the greatest urban pressure might be subject to significant climatic changes due to the increased impact of urban heat island phenomena. This highlights the need to take meaningful action to reverse the trends currently in place concerning the territorial government, with the purpose of creating a renewed political and social context that can reduce Land Degradation phenomena. These assumptions are considered essential to meet the new climate sustainability parameters introduced by the Paris Agreement signed in December 2015.

PLANNING MODELS FOR URBAN WATER SUPPLY EXPANSION. VOLUME 1. PLANNING FOR THE EXPANSION OF REGIONAL WATER SUPPLY SYSTEMS

EPA Science Inventory

A three-volume report was developed relative to the modelling of investment strategies for regional water supply planning. Volume 1 is the study of capacity expansion over time. Models to aid decision making for the deterministic case are presented, and a planning process under u...

Global scenarios of urban density and its impacts on building energy use through 2050

DOE PAGES

Guneralp, Burak; Zhou, Yuyu; Urge-Vorsatz, Diana; ...

2017-01-09

Here, urban areas play a significant role in planetary sustainability. While the scale of impending urbanization is well acknowledged, we have a limited understanding on how urban forms will change and what their impact will be on building energy use. Using both top-down and bottom-up approaches and scenarios, we examine building energy use, specifically, for heating and cooling. We also assess associated cobenefits and trade-offs with human well-being. Globally, the energy use for heating and cooling by midcentury will reach anywhere from about 45 EJ/yr to 59 EJ/yr (respectively, increases of 5% to 40% over the 2010 estimate). Most ofmore » this variability is due to the uncertainty in future urban forms of rapidly growing cities in Asia and, particularly, in China. Compact urban development overall leads to less energy use in urban environments. Delaying the retrofit of the existing built environment leads to more savings in building energy use. Potential for savings in the energy use is greatest in China when coupled with efficiency gains. Advanced efficiency makes the least difference compared to the business-as-usual scenario in energy use for heating and cooling in South Asia and Sub-Saharan Africa but significantly contribute to energy savings in North America and Europe. A systemic effort that focuses on both urban form and energy-efficient technologies, but also accounts for potential co-benefits and trade-offs, can contribute to both local and global sustainability. Particularly in mega-urban regions, such efforts can improve local environments for billions of urban residents and contribute to mitigating climate change by reducing energy use in urban areas and associated greenhouse gas emissions.« less

Global scenarios of urban density and its impacts on building energy use through 2050

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Güneralp, Burak; Zhou, Yuyu; Ürge-Vorsatz, Diana

2017-01-09

Urban areas play a significant role in planetary sustainability. While the scale of impending urbanization is well acknowledged, we have a limited understanding on how urban forms will change and what their impact will be on building energy use. Using both top-down and bottom-up approaches and scenarios, we examine building energy use, specifically, for heating and cooling. We also assess associated cobenefits and trade-offs with human well-being. Globally, the energy use for heating and cooling by midcentury will reach anywhere from about 45 EJ/yr to 59 EJ/yr (respectively, increases of 5% to 40% over the 2010 estimate). Most of thismore » variability is due to the uncertainty in future urban forms of rapidly growing cities in Asia and, particularly, in China. Compact urban development overall leads to less energy use in urban environments. Delaying the retrofit of the existing built environment leads to more savings in building energy use. Potential for savings in the energy use is greatest in China when coupled with efficiency gains. Advanced efficiency makes the least difference compared to the business-as-usual scenario in energy use for heating and cooling in South Asia and Sub-Saharan Africa but significantly contribute to energy savings in North America and Europe. A systemic effort that focuses on both urban form and energy-efficient technologies, but also accounts for potential co-benefits and trade-offs, can contribute to both local and global sustainability. Particularly in mega-urban regions, such efforts can improve local environments for billions of urban residents and contribute to mitigating climate change by reducing energy use in urban areas and associated greenhouse gas emissions.« less

[Simulation on area threshold of urban building land based on water environmental response in watersheds.

PubMed

He, Zhi Chao; Huang, Shuo; Guo, Qing Hai; Xiao, Li Shan; Yang, De Wei; Wang, Ying; Yang, Yi Fu

2016-08-01

Urban sprawl has impacted increasingly on water environment quality in watersheds. Based on water environmental response, the simulation and prediction of expanding threshold of urban building land could provide an alternative reference for urban construction planning. Taking three watersheds (i.e., Yundang Lake at complete urbanization phase, Maluan Bay at peri-urbanization phase and Xinglin Bay at early urbanization phase) with 2009-2012 observation data as example, we calculated the upper limit of TN and TP capacity in three watersheds and identified the threshold value of urban building land in watersheds using the regional nutrient management (ReNuMa) model, and also predicted the water environmental effects associated with the changes of urban landscape pattern. Results indicated that the upper limit value of TN was 12900, 42800 and 43120 kg, while that of TP was 340, 420 and 450 kg for Yundang, Maluan and Xinglin watershed, respectively. In reality, the environment capacity of pollutants in Yundang Lake was not yet satura-ted, and annual pollutant loads in Maluan Bay and Xinglin Bay were close to the upper limit. How-ever, an obvious upward trend of annual TN and TP loads was observed in Xinglin Bay. The annual pollutant load was not beyond the annual upper limit in three watersheds under Scenario 1, while performed oppositely under Scenario 3. Under Scenario 2, the annual pollutant load in Yundang Lake was under-saturation, and the TN and TP in Maluan Bay were over their limits. The area thresholds of urban building land were 1320, 5600 and 4750 hm 2 in Yundang Lake, Maluan Bay and Xinglin Bay, respectively. This study could benefit the regulation on urban landscape planning.

Coupling urban growth scenarios with nearshore biophysical change models to inform coastal restoration planning in Puget Sound, Washington

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Byrd, K. B.; Kreitler, J.; Labiosa, W.

2010-12-01

A scenario represents an account of a plausible future given logical assumptions about how conditions change over discrete bounds of space and time. Development of multiple scenarios provides a means to identify alternative directions of urban growth that account for a range of uncertainty in human behavior. Interactions between human and natural processes may be studied by coupling urban growth scenario outputs with biophysical change models; if growth scenarios encompass a sufficient range of alternative futures, scenario assumptions serve to constrain the uncertainty of biophysical models. Spatially explicit urban growth models (map-based) produce output such as distributions and densities of residential or commercial development in a GIS format that can serve as input to other models. Successful fusion of growth model outputs with other model inputs requires that both models strategically address questions of interest, incorporate ecological feedbacks, and minimize error. The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) Puget Sound Ecosystem Portfolio Model (PSEPM) is a decision-support tool that supports land use and restoration planning in Puget Sound, Washington, a 35,500 sq. km region. The PSEPM couples future scenarios of urban growth with statistical, process-based and rule-based models of nearshore biophysical changes and ecosystem services. By using a multi-criteria approach, the PSEPM identifies cross-system and cumulative threats to the nearshore environment plus opportunities for conservation and restoration. Sub-models that predict changes in nearshore biophysical condition were developed and existing models were integrated to evaluate three growth scenarios: 1) Status Quo, 2) Managed Growth, and 3) Unconstrained Growth. These decadal scenarios were developed and projected out to 2060 at Oregon State University using the GIS-based ENVISION model. Given land management decisions and policies under each growth scenario, the sub-models predicted changes in 1) fecal coliform in shellfish growing areas, 2) sediment supply to beaches, 3) State beach recreational visits, 4) eelgrass habitat suitability, 5) forage fish habitat suitability, and 6) nutrient loadings. In some cases thousands of shoreline units were evaluated with multiple predictive models, creating a need for streamlined and consistent database development and data processing. Model development over multiple disciplines demonstrated the challenge of merging data types from multiple sources that were inconsistent in spatial and temporal resolution, classification schemes, and topology. Misalignment of data in space and time created potential for error and misinterpretation of results. This effort revealed that the fusion of growth scenarios and biophysical models requires an up-front iterative adjustment of both scenarios and models so that growth model outputs provide the needed input data in the correct format. Successful design of data flow across models that includes feedbacks between human and ecological systems was found to enhance the use of the final data product for decision making.

Invasive termites in a changing climate: A global perspective.

PubMed

Buczkowski, Grzegorz; Bertelsmeier, Cleo

2017-02-01

Termites are ubiquitous insects in tropical, subtropical, and warm temperate regions and play an important role in ecosystems. Several termite species are also significant economic pests, mainly in urban areas where they attack human-made structures, but also in natural forest habitats. Worldwide, approximately 28 termite species are considered invasive and have spread beyond their native ranges, often with significant economic consequences. We used predictive climate modeling to provide the first global risk assessment for 13 of the world's most invasive termites. We modeled the future distribution of 13 of the most serious invasive termite species, using two different Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs), RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5, and two projection years (2050 and 2070). Our results show that all but one termite species are expected to significantly increase in their global distribution, irrespective of the climatic scenario and year. The range shifts by species (shift vectors) revealed a complex pattern of distributional changes across latitudes rather than simple poleward expansion. Mapping of potential invasion hotspots in 2050 under the RCP 4.5 scenario revealed that the most suitable areas are located in the tropics. Substantial parts of all continents had suitable environmental conditions for more than four species simultaneously. Mapping of changes in the number of species revealed that areas that lose many species (e.g., parts of South America) are those that were previously very species-rich, contrary to regions such as Europe that were overall not among the most important invasion hotspots, but that showed a great increase in the number of potential invaders. The substantial economic and ecological damage caused by invasive termites is likely to increase in response to climate change, increased urbanization, and accelerating economic globalization, acting singly or interactively.

Land use planning and wildfire: development policies influence future probability of housing loss

USGS Publications Warehouse

Syphard, Alexandra D.; Massada, Avi Bar; Butsic, Van; Keeley, Jon E.

2013-01-01

Increasing numbers of homes are being destroyed by wildfire in the wildland-urban interface. With projections of climate change and housing growth potentially exacerbating the threat of wildfire to homes and property, effective fire-risk reduction alternatives are needed as part of a comprehensive fire management plan. Land use planning represents a shift in traditional thinking from trying to eliminate wildfires, or even increasing resilience to them, toward avoiding exposure to them through the informed placement of new residential structures. For land use planning to be effective, it needs to be based on solid understanding of where and how to locate and arrange new homes. We simulated three scenarios of future residential development and projected landscape-level wildfire risk to residential structures in a rapidly urbanizing, fire-prone region in southern California. We based all future development on an econometric subdivision model, but we varied the emphasis of subdivision decision-making based on three broad and common growth types: infill, expansion, and leapfrog. Simulation results showed that decision-making based on these growth types, when applied locally for subdivision of individual parcels, produced substantial landscape-level differences in pattern, location, and extent of development. These differences in development, in turn, affected the area and proportion of structures at risk from burning in wildfires. Scenarios with lower housing density and larger numbers of small, isolated clusters of development, i.e., resulting from leapfrog development, were generally predicted to have the highest predicted fire risk to the largest proportion of structures in the study area, and infill development was predicted to have the lowest risk. These results suggest that land use planning should be considered an important component to fire risk management and that consistently applied policies based on residential pattern may provide substantial benefits for future risk reduction.

Change in Environmental Benefits of Urban Land Use and Its Drivers in Chinese Cities, 2000–2010

PubMed Central

Song, Xiaoqing; Chang, Kang-tsung; Yang, Liang; Scheffran, Jürgen

2016-01-01

Driven by rising income and urban population growth, China has experienced rapid urban expansion since the 1980s. Urbanization can have positive effects on the urban environment; however, improvement of urban environment quality, especially its divergence between relatively developed and undeveloped cities in China, is currently a rather rudimentary and subjective issue. This study analyzed urban environmental benefits among China’s prefectural cities based on their structure of urban land use in 2000 and 2010. First, we divided 347 prefectural cities into two groups, 81 coastal and capital cities in the relatively developed group (RD) and 266 other prefectural cities in the undeveloped group (RP). Then, we defined three areas of urban environmental benefits, including green infrastructure, industrial upgrade, and environmental management, and developed an assessment index system. Results showed that all prefectural cities saw improvement in urban environmental quality in 2000–2010. Although the RD cities had higher income and more population growth, they had less improvement than the RP cities during the same period. We also found that demographic and urban land agglomeration among RD cities restrained green infrastructure expansion, making green infrastructure unsuitable as a permanent solution to environmental improvement. It is therefore urgent for China to promote balanced improvement among the three areas of urban environmental benefits and between the RD and RP cities through regional differentiation policies. PMID:27240386

Change in Environmental Benefits of Urban Land Use and Its Drivers in Chinese Cities, 2000-2010.

PubMed

Song, Xiaoqing; Chang, Kang-Tsung; Yang, Liang; Scheffran, Jürgen

2016-05-26

Driven by rising income and urban population growth, China has experienced rapid urban expansion since the 1980s. Urbanization can have positive effects on the urban environment; however, improvement of urban environment quality, especially its divergence between relatively developed and undeveloped cities in China, is currently a rather rudimentary and subjective issue. This study analyzed urban environmental benefits among China's prefectural cities based on their structure of urban land use in 2000 and 2010. First, we divided 347 prefectural cities into two groups, 81 coastal and capital cities in the relatively developed group (RD) and 266 other prefectural cities in the undeveloped group (RP). Then, we defined three areas of urban environmental benefits, including green infrastructure, industrial upgrade, and environmental management, and developed an assessment index system. Results showed that all prefectural cities saw improvement in urban environmental quality in 2000-2010. Although the RD cities had higher income and more population growth, they had less improvement than the RP cities during the same period. We also found that demographic and urban land agglomeration among RD cities restrained green infrastructure expansion, making green infrastructure unsuitable as a permanent solution to environmental improvement. It is therefore urgent for China to promote balanced improvement among the three areas of urban environmental benefits and between the RD and RP cities through regional differentiation policies.

More green infrastructure is required to maintain ecosystem services under current trends in land-use change in Europe.

PubMed

Maes, Joachim; Barbosa, Ana; Baranzelli, Claudia; Zulian, Grazia; Batista E Silva, Filipe; Vandecasteele, Ine; Hiederer, Roland; Liquete, Camino; Paracchini, Maria Luisa; Mubareka, Sarah; Jacobs-Crisioni, Chris; Castillo, Carolina Perpiña; Lavalle, Carlo

Green infrastructure (GI), a network of nature, semi-natural areas and green space, delivers essential ecosystem services which underpin human well-being and quality of life. Maintaining ecosystem services through the development of GI is therefore increasingly recognized by policies as a strategy to cope with potentially changing conditions in the future. This paper assessed how current trends of land-use change have an impact on the aggregated provision of eight ecosystem services at the regional scale of the European Union, measured by the Total Ecosystem Services Index (TESI8). Moreover, the paper reports how further implementation of GI across Europe can help maintain ecosystem services at baseline levels. Current demographic, economic and agricultural trends, which affect land use, were derived from the so called Reference Scenario. This scenario is established by the European Commission to assess the impact of energy and climate policy up to 2050. Under the Reference Scenario, economic growth, coupled with the total population, stimulates increasing urban and industrial expansion. TESI8 is expected to decrease across Europe between 0 and 5 % by 2020 and between 10 and 15 % by 2050 relative to the base year 2010. Based on regression analysis, we estimated that every additional percent increase of the proportion of artificial land needs to be compensated with an increase of 2.2 % of land that qualifies as green infrastructure in order to maintain ecosystem services at 2010 levels.

Winter range expansion of a hummingbird is associated with urbanization and supplementary feeding

PubMed Central

Wood, Eric M.

2017-01-01

Anthropogenic changes to the landscape and climate cause novel ecological and evolutionary pressures, leading to potentially dramatic changes in the distribution of biodiversity. Warm winter temperatures can shift species' distributions to regions that were previously uninhabitable. Further, urbanization and supplementary feeding may facilitate range expansions and potentially reduce migration tendency. Here we explore how these factors interact to cause non-uniform effects across a species's range. Using 17 years of data from the citizen science programme Project FeederWatch, we examined the relationships between urbanization, winter temperatures and the availability of supplementary food (i.e. artificial nectar) on the winter range expansion (more than 700 km northward in the past two decades) of Anna's hummingbirds (Calypte anna). We found that Anna's hummingbirds have colonized colder locations over time, were more likely to colonize sites with higher housing density and were more likely to visit feeders in the expanded range compared to the historical range. Additionally, their range expansion mirrored a corresponding increase over time in the tendency of people to provide nectar feeders in the expanded range. This work illustrates how humans may alter the distribution and potentially the migratory behaviour of species through landscape and resource modification. PMID:28381617

Gravitational particle creation in a stiff matter dominated universe

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Lankinen, Juho; Vilja, Iiro, E-mail: jumila@utu.fi, E-mail: vilja@utu.fi

A scenario for gravitational particle creation in a stiff matter dominated flat Friedmann-Robertson-Walker universe is presented. The primary creation of scalar particles is calculated using quantum field theory in curved spacetime and it is found to be strongly dependent on the scalar mass and the expansion parameter of the universe. The particle creation is most effective for a very massive scalar field and large expansion parameter. We demonstrate the phenomenon by applying it to cosmological toy model scenario, where secondary particles are created by the scalar field decay.

Gravitational particle creation in a stiff matter dominated universe

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lankinen, Juho; Vilja, Iiro

2017-08-01

A scenario for gravitational particle creation in a stiff matter dominated flat Friedmann-Robertson-Walker universe is presented. The primary creation of scalar particles is calculated using quantum field theory in curved spacetime and it is found to be strongly dependent on the scalar mass and the expansion parameter of the universe. The particle creation is most effective for a very massive scalar field and large expansion parameter. We demonstrate the phenomenon by applying it to cosmological toy model scenario, where secondary particles are created by the scalar field decay.

Planning Construction Research of Modern Urban Landscape

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Xiao, Z. Q.; Chen, W.

With the development and expansion of the city's traditional urban landscape planning methods have been difficult to adapt to the requirements of modern urban development, in the new urban construction, planning what kind of urban landscape is a new research topic. The article discusses the principles of modern urban landscape planning and development, promote the adoption of new concepts and theories, building more regional characteristics, more humane, more perfect, more emphasis on urban landscape pattern natural ecological protection and construction can sustainable development of urban living environment, and promote the development and construction of the city.

Monitoring the urban expansion of Athens using remote sensing and GIS techniques in the last 35 years

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nikolakopoulos, Konstantinos; Pavlopoulos, Kosmas; Chalkias, Christos; Manou, Dora

2005-10-01

During the last thirty-five years the capital of Greece has suffered from an enormous internal immigration. Its population has overpassed the five millions and today almost the half population of Greece is squeezed in Athens metropolitan area. Because of the significant increase of population, the urban expansion in the basin of Athens was also excessive and in some cases catastrophic. Buildings have covered all the free places, new roads have been constructed, the drainage networks have been covered or disappeared and a lot of changes have been occurred to the landforms. The construction of the new airport (Elefterios Venizelos) at the beginning of this decade created a new commercial and urban pole at the eastern part of Athens and the constructive activity has been moved to new areas around the airport. Our aim was to detect and map all the changes that occurred in the urban area, estimate the urban expansion rate and the human interferences in the natural landscape, using GIS and remote sensing techniques. We have used satellite images from three different periods (1973, 1992, 2002) and topographic maps of 1:25.000 scale. The spatial resolution of all the satellite images ranges from 5 to 10 meters and is it acceptable for the monitoring and mapping of the urban growth. Supervised classification and on screen digitizing methods have been used in order to map the changes. Finally the qualitative and quantitative results of this study are presented in this paper.

Integrated assessments of green infrastructure for flood mitigation to support robust decision-making for sponge city construction in an urbanized watershed.

PubMed

Mei, Chao; Liu, Jiahong; Wang, Hao; Yang, Zhiyong; Ding, Xiangyi; Shao, Weiwei

2018-10-15

Green Infrastructure (GI) has become increasingly important in urban stormwater management because of the effects of climate change and urbanization. To mitigate severe urban water-related problems, China is implementing GI at the national scale under its Sponge City Program (SCP). The SCP is currently in a pilot period, however, little attention has been paid to the cost-effectiveness of GI implementation in China. In this study, an evaluation framework based on the Storm Water Management Model (SWMM) and life cycle cost analysis (LCCA) was applied to undertake integrated assessments of the development of GI for flood mitigation, to support robust decision making regarding sponge city construction in urbanized watersheds. A baseline scenario and 15 GI scenarios under six design rainfall events with recurrence intervals ranging from 2-100 years were simulated and assessed. Model simulation results confirmed the effectiveness of GI for flood mitigation. Nevertheless, even under the most beneficial scenario, the results showed the hydrological performance of GI was incapable of eliminating flooding. Analysis indicated the bioretention cell (BC) plus vegetated swale (VS) scenario was the most cost-effective GI option for unit investment under all rainfall events. However, regarding the maximum potential of the implementation areas of all GI scenarios, the porous pavement plus BC + VS strategy was considered most reasonable for the study area. Although the optimal combinations are influenced by uncertainties in both the model and the GI parameters, the main trends and key insights derived remain unaffected; therefore, the conclusions are relevant regarding sponge city construction within the study area. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Environmental and natural resource implications of sustainable urban infrastructure systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bergesen, Joseph D.; Suh, Sangwon; Baynes, Timothy M.; Kaviti Musango, Josephine

2017-12-01

As cities grow, their environmental and natural resource footprints also tend to grow to keep up with the increasing demand on essential urban services such as passenger transportation, commercial space, and thermal comfort. The urban infrastructure systems, or socio-technical systems providing these services are the major conduits through which natural resources are consumed and environmental impacts are generated. This paper aims to gauge the potential reductions in environmental and resources footprints through urban transformation, including the deployment of resource-efficient socio-technical systems and strategic densification. Using hybrid life cycle assessment approach combined with scenarios, we analyzed the greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, water use, metal consumption and land use of selected socio-technical systems in 84 cities from the present to 2050. The socio-technical systems analyzed are: (1) bus rapid transit with electric buses, (2) green commercial buildings, and (3) district energy. We developed a baseline model for each city considering gross domestic product, population density, and climate conditions. Then, we overlaid three scenarios on top of the baseline model: (1) decarbonization of electricity, (2) aggressive deployment of resource-efficient socio-technical systems, and (3) strategic urban densification scenarios to each city and quantified their potentials in reducing the environmental and resource impacts of cities by 2050. The results show that, under the baseline scenario, the environmental and natural resource footprints of all 84 cities combined would increase 58%-116% by 2050. The resource-efficient scenario along with strategic densification, however, has the potential to curve down GHG emissions to 17% below the 2010 level in 2050. Such transformation can also limit the increase in all resource footprints to less than 23% relative to 2010. This analysis suggests that resource-efficient urban infrastructure and decarbonization of electricity coupled with strategic densification have a potential to mitigate resources and environmental footprints of growing cities.

Impact on air quality of measures to reduce CO2 emissions from road traffic in Basel, Rotterdam, Xi'an and Suzhou

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Keuken, M. P.; Jonkers, S.; Verhagen, H. L. M.; Perez, L.; Trüeb, S.; Okkerse, W.-J.; Liu, J.; Pan, X. C.; Zheng, L.; Wang, H.; Xu, R.; Sabel, C. E.

2014-12-01

Two traffic scenarios to reduce CO2 emissions from road traffic in two European cities (Basel and Rotterdam) and two Chinese cities (Xi'an and Suzhou) were evaluated in terms of their impact on air quality. The two scenarios, one modelling a reduction of private vehicle kilometres driven by 10% on urban streets and the other modelling the introduction of 50% electric-powered private vehicle kilometres on urban streets, were both compared to a scenario following “business-as-usual”: 2020-BAU. The annual average concentrations of NO2, PM2.5, PM10 and elemental carbon (EC) were modelled separately in busy street canyons, near urban motorways and in the remainder of the urban area. It was concluded that traffic-related CO2 emissions in 2020-BAU could be expected to remain at the levels of 2010 in Basel and Rotterdam, while in Xi'an and Suzhou to increase 30-50% due to growth in the traffic volume. Traffic-related CO2 emissions may be reduced by up to 5% and 25%, respectively using the first and second scenarios. Air pollution in the Chinese cities is a factor 3 to 5 higher than in the European cities in 2010 and 2020-BAU. The impact of both CO2 reduction scenarios on air quality in 2020-BAU is limited. In Europe, due to implementation of stringent emission standards in all sectors, air quality is expected to improve at both the urban background and near busy road traffic. In China, the regional background is expected to improve for EC, stabilize for PM2.5 and PM10, and decrease for NO2. The urban background follows this regional trend, while near busy road traffic, air pollution will remain elevated due to the considerable growth in traffic volume. A major constraint for modelling air quality in China is access to the input data required and lack of measurements at ground level for validation.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Nugent, Philip J; Omitaomu, Olufemi A; Parish, Esther S

The urban climate is changing rapidly. Therefore, climate change and its projected impacts on environmental conditions must be considered in assessing and comparing urban planning alternatives. In this paper, we present an integrated framework for urban climate adaptation tool (Urban-CAT) that will help cities to plan for, rather than react to, possible risks. Urban-CAT will be developed as a scenario planning tool that is locally relevant to existing urban decision-making processes.

Expansion analyses of strategic petroleum reserve in Bayou Choctaw : revised locations.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Ehgartner, Brian L.; Park, Byoung Yoon

2010-11-01

This report summarizes a series of three-dimensional simulations for the Bayou Choctaw Strategic Petroleum Reserve. The U.S. Department of Energy plans to leach two new caverns and convert one of the existing caverns within the Bayou Choctaw salt dome to expand its petroleum reserve storage capacity. An existing finite element mesh from previous analyses is modified by changing the locations of two caverns. The structural integrity of the three expansion caverns and the interaction between all the caverns in the dome are investigated. The impacts of the expansion on underground creep closure, surface subsidence, infrastructure, and well integrity are quantified.more » Two scenarios were used for the duration and timing of workover conditions where wellhead pressures are temporarily reduced to atmospheric pressure. The three expansion caverns are predicted to be structurally stable against tensile failure for both scenarios. Dilatant failure is not expected within the vicinity of the expansion caverns. Damage to surface structures is not predicted and there is not a marked increase in surface strains due to the presence of the three expansion caverns. The wells into the caverns should not undergo yield. The results show that from a structural viewpoint, the locations of the two newly proposed expansion caverns are acceptable, and all three expansion caverns can be safely constructed and operated.« less

Human expansion precipitates niche expansion for an opportunistic apex predator (Puma concolor).

PubMed

Moss, Wynne E; Alldredge, Mathew W; Logan, Kenneth A; Pauli, Jonathan N

2016-12-23

There is growing recognition that developed landscapes are important systems in which to promote ecological complexity and conservation. Yet, little is known about processes regulating these novel ecosystems, or behaviours employed by species adapting to them. We evaluated the isotopic niche of an apex carnivore, the cougar (Puma concolor), over broad spatiotemporal scales and in a region characterized by rapid landscape change. We detected a shift in resource use, from near complete specialization on native herbivores in wildlands to greater use of exotic and invasive species by cougars in contemporary urban interfaces. We show that 25 years ago, cougars inhabiting these same urban interfaces possessed diets that were intermediate. Thus, niche expansion followed human expansion over both time and space, indicating that an important top predator is interacting with prey in novel ways. Thus, though human-dominated landscapes can provide sufficient resources for apex carnivores, they do not necessarily preserve their ecological relationships.

Global scenarios of urban density and its impacts on building energy use through 2050

PubMed Central

Güneralp, Burak; Zhou, Yuyu; Ürge-Vorsatz, Diana; Gupta, Mukesh; Yu, Sha; Patel, Pralit L.; Fragkias, Michail; Li, Xiaoma; Seto, Karen C.

2017-01-01

Although the scale of impending urbanization is well-acknowledged, we have a limited understanding of how urban forms will change and what their impact will be on building energy use. Using both top-down and bottom-up approaches and scenarios, we examine building energy use for heating and cooling. Globally, the energy use for heating and cooling by the middle of the century will be between 45 and 59 exajoules per year (corresponding to an increase of 7–40% since 2010). Most of this variability is due to the uncertainty in future urban densities of rapidly growing cities in Asia and particularly China. Dense urban development leads to less urban energy use overall. Waiting to retrofit the existing built environment until markets are ready in about 5 years to widely deploy the most advanced renovation technologies leads to more savings in building energy use. Potential for savings in energy use is greatest in China when coupled with efficiency gains. Advanced efficiency makes the least difference compared with the business-as-usual scenario in South Asia and Sub-Saharan Africa but significantly contributes to energy savings in North America and Europe. Systemic efforts that focus on both urban form, of which urban density is an indicator, and energy-efficient technologies, but that also account for potential co-benefits and trade-offs with human well-being can contribute to both local and global sustainability. Particularly in growing cities in the developing world, such efforts can improve the well-being of billions of urban residents and contribute to mitigating climate change by reducing energy use in urban areas. PMID:28069957

[Relationships between urbanization and water resource utilization in Dongting Lake District of South-central China].

PubMed

Li, Jing-Zhi; Zhu, Xiang; Li, Jing-Bao; Xu, Mei

2013-06-01

By using analytic hierarchy process and entropy method, the evaluation index system and the response relationship model of comprehensive development level of urbanization and comprehensive development and utilization potential of water resources in Dongting Lake District were constructed, with the key affecting factors, their change characteristics, and response characteristics from 2001 to 2010 analyzed. During the study period, the Dongting Lake District was undergoing a rapid development of urbanization, and at a scale expansion stage. The economic and social development level was lagged behind the population and area increase, and the quality and efficiency of urbanization were still needed to be improved. With the advance of urbanization, the water consumption increased yearly, and the water resources utilization efficiency and management level improved steadily. However, the background condition of water resources and their development and utilization level were more affected by hydrological environment rather than urbanization. To a certain extent, the development of urbanization in 2001, 2002, 2005, 2006, 2007, 2009 was slowed down by the shortage of water resources. At present, Dongting Lake region was confronted with the dual task of improving the level and quality of urbanization, and hence, it would be necessary to reform the traditional epitaxial expansion of urbanization and to enhance the water resource support capability.

Analysis of Urban Expansion of the Resort City of Al Ain Using Remote Sensing and GIS

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Issa, S.; Al Shuwaihi, A.

2009-12-01

The urban growth of AL Ain city has been investigated using remote sensing data for three different dates, 1972, 1990 and 2000. We used three Landsat images together with socio-economic data in a post-classification analysis to map the spatial dynamics of land use/cover changes and identify the urbanization process in Al Ain resort city, United Arab Emirates. Land use/cover statistics, extracted from Landsat Multi-spectral Scanner (MSS). Thematic Mapper (TM) and Enhanced Thematic Mapper plus (ETM +) images for 1972. 1990 and 2000 respectively, revealed that the built-up area has expanded by about 170.53km2. The city was found to have a tendency for major expansion in four different directions: along the Abu Dhabi highway, along Dubai highway, Myziad direction and Hafeet recreational area. Expansion in any direction was found to be governed by the availability of road network, suitability for construction, utilities, economic activities, geographical constraints, and legal factors (boundary with Sultanate of Oman). The road network in particular has influenced the spatial patterns and structure of urban development, so that the expansion of the built-up areas has assumed an accretive as well as linear growth along the major roads. The research concludes that the development is based on conservation of agricultural areas (oases) and reclamation of the desert for farming and agricultural activities. The integration of remote sensing and GIS was found to be effective in monitoring LULC changes and providing valuable information necessary for planning and research.

Is Diet Flexibility an Adaptive Life Trait for Relictual and Peri-Urban Populations of the Endangered Primate Macaca sylvanus?

PubMed Central

Maibeche, Yasmina; Moali, Aissa; Yahi, Nassima; Menard, Nelly

2015-01-01

Habitat loss, fragmentation and urban expansion may drive some species to marginal habitats while others succeed in exploiting urban areas. Species that show dietary flexibility are more able to take advantage of human activities to supplement their diet with anthropogenically abundant and accessible resources. The Barbary macaque (Macaca sylvanus) is an endangered species due to the loss of its habitat, and human pressure. The population of Gouraya National Park (Algeria) lives in a relictual habitat that constitutes about 0.6% of the species range. In addition, this population is a unique case where urban expansion favours contact zones between Barbary macaque habitats and a big city (Bejaia). We quantified the dietary composition of Gouraya macaques over an annual cycle with the objective to understand how diet flexibility of this species may help it adapt to a relictual habitat or cope with urban expansion. We recorded the phenology of plant species every month. This study shows that Gouraya macaques, compared to those living in other forest types of the distribution area, are under lower seasonal constraints. They consume a greater amount of fruit and seeds that are available throughout much of the year, and a lesser amount of costly to find and extract subterranean foods. Therefore the Gouraya relictual habitat appears as a favourable environment compared to other major habitats of that species. This study also shows that colonizing peri-urban zones increases the availability and species richness of diet resources for Barbary macaques as they consume more human foods and exotic plants than in farther sites. Adult males eat more human foods than adult females and immatures do. The exploitation of high-energy anthropogenic food could favour macaque population growth and expansion towards the city center associated with human/macaque conflicts. We recommend applying management actions to restore macaques back to their natural habitat. PMID:25714476

Power supply expansion and the nuclear option in Poland

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Marnay, C.; Pickle, S.

Poland is in the process of liberalizing and modernizing its electric power system. Given its heavy reliance on coal and a consequent history of often severe environmental externalities associated with power production, the nature of capacity expansion in Poland has important environmental and social implications. To better understand capacity expansion in Poland, we constructed a data set of the Polish power sector for use with the Elfin capacity expansion planning model. Using Elfin, we derived four scenarios and several sensitivities for new generating capacity construction. These scenarios simulate choices among several generic generating technologies made to achieve the lowest overallmore » net present cost of operating the power system through 2015. We find that natural gas is a highly desirable fuel for future power generation in Poland, but primarily as a peaking resource. As the current system is inflexible and peaking capacity appears to be the most pressing need, this result is not surprising. However, when nuclear power is included as a generation option, natural gas is less desirable than the Polish Power Grid Company (PPGCo) has suggested, and, despite the PPGCo`s claims to the contrary, nuclear power cannot be ruled out in Poland on economic grounds alone. In the unconstrained Elfin scenarios, using PPGCo assumptions, nuclear power is attractive, especially after 2010. The attractiveness of nuclear generation proves sensitive to certain input variables, however, notably fixed operating and maintenance cost, and possible carbon taxes. Moreover, we find that the effectiveness of conservation efforts designed to reduce airborne emissions is limited under scenarios in which nuclear generation is adopted. 23 refs., 11 figs., 5 tabs.« less

The uninsured: an analysis by income and geography.

PubMed

Barker, Abigail R; Londeree, Jessica K; McBride, Timothy D; Kemper, Leah M; Mueller, Keith

2013-06-01

Key Findings. (1) A larger proportion of the rural population than the urban population is uninsured and low income (living at or below 138% of the federal poverty line [FPL]) (9.9% as compared to 8.5%) and a larger proportion of the rural population than the urban population will be eligible for subsidized Health Insurance Marketplace (HIM) coverage due to income levels and current lack of insurance (10.7% as compared to 9.6%). (2) Assuming full Medicaid expansion, a larger proportion of the rural uninsured than the urban uninsured would be eligible for Medicaid (43.5% as compared to 38.5%). (3) A smaller proportion of the rural uninsured than the urban uninsured has income above 400% FPL and thus will not qualify for either Medicaid or HIM subsidies (10% as compared to 14.1%). (4) The proportion of the uninsured population potentially eligible for Medicaid expansion is highest in the rural South (47.5%) and lowest in the urban Northeast (32.5%) and the rural Northeast (35.8%).

On Precipitation Modification by Major Urban Areas: A New Perspective from TRMM

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Pierce, Harold; Shepherd, J. Marshall; Starr, David OC. (Technical Monitor)

2001-01-01

By year 2025, 80% of the world's population will live in cities, according to a 1999 United Nation's report. As cities continue to grow, urban sprawl creates unique challenges related to land use planning, transportation, agriculture, housing, pollution, and development. Urban expansion also has measurable impact on environmental process.

Divergent Urban-Rural Trends in College Attendance: State Policy Bias and Structural Exclusion in China

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Tam, Tony; Jiang, Jin

2015-01-01

Despite the massive expansion of higher education in China since 1998, the cohort trends of urban and rural "hukou" holders in college attendance have widened sharply. Prevailing explanations emphasize the advantages of urban students over rural students in school quality and household financial resources. We propose the structural…

7.0 Monitoring the status and impacts of forest fragmentation and urbanization

Treesearch

Rachel Riemann; Karen Riva-Murray; Peter S. Murdoch

2008-01-01

The geographic expansion of urban and suburban development and the influx of residential and recreational development into previously forested areas are growing concerns for natural resource managers. This project sought to: identify and characterize urbanization and forest fragmentation over large areas with the detail and accuracy required for studies of wildlife...

Assessment of vulnerability to future marine processes of urbanized coastal environments by a GIS-based approach: expected scenario in the metropolitan area of Bari (Italy)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mancini, F.; Ceppi, C.; Christopulos, V.

2013-12-01

Literature concerning the risk assessment procedures after extreme meteorological events is generally focused on the establishing of relationship between actual severe weather conditions and impact detected over the involved zones. Such an events are classified on the basis of measurements and observation able to assess the magnitude of phenomena or on the basis of related effects on the affected area, the latter being deeply connected with the overall physical vulnerability. However such assessment almost never do consider scenario about expected extreme event and possible pattern of urbanization at the time of impact and nor the spatial and temporal uncertainty of phenomena are taken into account. The drawn of future scenario about coastal vulnerability to marine processes is therefore difficult. This work focuses the study case of the Metropoli Terra di Bari (metropolitan area of Bari, Apulia, Italy) where a coastal vulnerability analysis due to climate changes expected on the basis of expert opinions coming from the scientific community was carried out. Several possible impacts on the coastal environments were considered, in particular sea level rise inundation, flooding due to storm surge and coastal erosion. For such a purpose the methodology base on SRES (Special Report on Emission Scenario) produced by the IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change) was adopted after a regionalization procedure as carried out by Verburgh and others (2006) at the European scale. The open source software SLEUTH, base on the cellular automate principle, was used and the reliability of obtained scenario verified through the Monte Carlo method. Once these scenario were produced, a GIS-based multicriteria methodology was implemented to evaluate the vulnerability of the urbanized coastal area of interest. Several vulnerability maps related are therefore available for different scenario able to consider the degree of hazards and potential development of the typology and extent of urban settlements. The vulnerability assessments under different scenario could represent a suitable tool in the designing of risk mitigation strategies under uncertain scenario of hazard.

No more freeways : urban land use-transportation dynamics without freeway capacity expansion

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2011-01-01

Observations of the various limitations of freeway capacity expansion have led to a provocative planning and policy question What if we : completely stop building additional freeway capacity. From a theoretical perspective, as a freeway transport...

Determining air quality and greenhouse gas impacts of hydrogen infrastructure and fuel cell vehicles.

PubMed

Stephens-Romero, Shane; Carreras-Sospedra, Marc; Brouwer, Jacob; Dabdub, Donald; Samuelsen, Scott

2009-12-01

Adoption of hydrogen infrastructure and hydrogen fuel cell vehicles (HFCVs) to replace gasoline internal combustion engine (ICE) vehicles has been proposed as a strategy to reduce criteria pollutant and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from the transportation sector and transition to fuel independence. However, it is uncertain (1) to what degree the reduction in criteria pollutants will impact urban air quality, and (2) how the reductions in pollutant emissions and concomitant urban air quality impacts compare to ultralow emission gasoline-powered vehicles projected for a future year (e.g., 2060). To address these questions, the present study introduces a "spatially and temporally resolved energy and environment tool" (STREET) to characterize the pollutant and GHG emissions associated with a comprehensive hydrogen supply infrastructure and HFCVs at a high level of geographic and temporal resolution. To demonstrate the utility of STREET, two spatially and temporally resolved scenarios for hydrogen infrastructure are evaluated in a prototypical urban airshed (the South Coast Air Basin of California) using geographic information systems (GIS) data. The well-to-wheels (WTW) GHG emissions are quantified and the air quality is established using a detailed atmospheric chemistry and transport model followed by a comparison to a future gasoline scenario comprised of advanced ICE vehicles. One hydrogen scenario includes more renewable primary energy sources for hydrogen generation and the other includes more fossil fuel sources. The two scenarios encompass a variety of hydrogen generation, distribution, and fueling strategies. GHG emissions reductions range from 61 to 68% for both hydrogen scenarios in parallel with substantial improvements in urban air quality (e.g., reductions of 10 ppb in peak 8-h-averaged ozone and 6 mug/m(3) in 24-h-averaged particulate matter concentrations, particularly in regions of the airshed where concentrations are highest for the gasoline scenario).

2017 Standard Scenarios Report: A U.S. Electricity Sector Outlook

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Cole, Wesley J.; Mai, Trieu T.; Richards, James

The 2017 Standard Scenarios includes a suite of U.S. electricity sector scenarios. The report explores four power sector storylines, including the growth in natural gas and renewable energy, the relative competitiveness of wind and solar PV, the potential impact of low-cost battery storage, and the impact of nuclear lifetimes on the capacity expansion of the power sector.

Projected land-use change impacts on ecosystem services in the United States.

PubMed

Lawler, Joshua J; Lewis, David J; Nelson, Erik; Plantinga, Andrew J; Polasky, Stephen; Withey, John C; Helmers, David P; Martinuzzi, Sebastián; Pennington, Derric; Radeloff, Volker C

2014-05-20

Providing food, timber, energy, housing, and other goods and services, while maintaining ecosystem functions and biodiversity that underpin their sustainable supply, is one of the great challenges of our time. Understanding the drivers of land-use change and how policies can alter land-use change will be critical to meeting this challenge. Here we project land-use change in the contiguous United States to 2051 under two plausible baseline trajectories of economic conditions to illustrate how differences in underlying market forces can have large impacts on land-use with cascading effects on ecosystem services and wildlife habitat. We project a large increase in croplands (28.2 million ha) under a scenario with high crop demand mirroring conditions starting in 2007, compared with a loss of cropland (11.2 million ha) mirroring conditions in the 1990s. Projected land-use changes result in increases in carbon storage, timber production, food production from increased yields, and >10% decreases in habitat for 25% of modeled species. We also analyze policy alternatives designed to encourage forest cover and natural landscapes and reduce urban expansion. Although these policy scenarios modify baseline land-use patterns, they do not reverse powerful underlying trends. Policy interventions need to be aggressive to significantly alter underlying land-use change trends and shift the trajectory of ecosystem service provision.

Combined sewer overflow control with LID based on SWMM: an example in Shanghai, China.

PubMed

Liao, Z L; Zhang, G Q; Wu, Z H; He, Y; Chen, H

2015-01-01

Although low impact development (LID) has been commonly applied across the developed countries for mitigating the negative impacts of combined sewer overflows (CSOs) on urban hydrological environment, it has not been widely used in developing countries yet. In this paper, a typical combined sewer system in an urbanized area of Shanghai, China was used to demonstrate how to design and choose CSO control solutions with LID using stormwater management model. We constructed and simulated three types of CSO control scenarios. Our findings support the notion that LID measures possess favorable capability on CSO reduction. Nevertheless, the green scenarios which are completely comprised by LID measures fail to achieve the maximal effectiveness on CSO reduction, while the gray-green scenarios (LID measure combined with gray measures) achieve it. The unit cost-effectiveness of each type of scenario sorts as: green scenario > gray-green scenario > gray scenario. Actually, as the storage tank is built in the case catchment, a complete application of green scenario is inaccessible here. Through comprehensive evaluation and comparison, the gray-green scenario F which used the combination of storage tank, bio-retention and rain barrels is considered as the most feasible one in this case.

Scenario-based projections of future urban inundation within a coupled hydrodynamic model framework: A case study in Dongguan City, China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wu, Xushu; Wang, Zhaoli; Guo, Shenglian; Liao, Weilin; Zeng, Zhaoyang; Chen, Xiaohong

2017-04-01

One major threat to cities at present is the increased inundation hazards owing to changes in climate and accelerated human activity. Future evolution of urban inundation is still an unsolved issue, given large uncertainties in future environmental conditions within urbanized areas. Developing model techniques and urban inundation projections are essential for inundation management. In this paper, we proposed a 2D hydrodynamic inundation model by coupling SWMM and LISFLOOD-FP models, and revealed how future urban inundation would evolve for different storms, sea level rise and subsidence scenarios based on the developed model. The Shiqiao Creek District (SCD) in Dongguan City was used as the case study. The model ability was validated against the June 13th, 2008 inundation event, which occurred in SCD, and proved capable of simulating dynamic urban inundation. Scenario analyses revealed a high degree of consistency in the inundation patterns among different storms, with larger magnitudes corresponding to greater return periods. Inundations across SCD generally vary as a function of storm intensity, but for lowlands or regions without drainage facilities inundations tend to aggravate over time. In riverfronts, inundations would exacerbate with sea level rise or subsidence; however, the inland inundations are seemingly insensitive to both factors. For the combined scenario of 100-yr storm, 0.5 m subsidence and 0.7 m sea level rise, the riverside inundations would occur much in advance, whilst catastrophic inundations sweep across SCD. Furthermore, the optimal low-impact development found for this case study includes 0.2 km2 of permeable pavements, 0.1 km2 of rain barrels and 0.7 km2 of green roofs.

Urban transformation of a metropolis and its environmental impacts: a case study in Shanghai.

PubMed

Tian, Zhan; Cao, Guiying; Shi, Jun; McCallum, Ian; Cui, Linli; Fan, Dongli; Li, Xinhu

2012-06-01

The aim of this paper is to understand the sustainability of urban spatial transformation in the process of rapid urbanization, and calls for future research on the demographic and economic dimensions of climate change. Shanghai towards its transformation to a metropolis has experienced vast socioeconomic and ecological change and calls for future research on the impacts of demographic and economic dimensions on climate change. We look at the major questions (1) to explore economic and demographic growth, land use and land-cover changes in the context of rapid economic and city growth, and (2) to analyze how the demography and economic growth have been associated with the local air temperature and vegetation. We examine urban growth, land use and land-cover changes in the context of rapid economic development and urbanization. We assess the impact of urban expansion on local air temperature and vegetation. The analysis is based on time series data of land use, normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI), and meteorological, demographic and economic data. The results indicate that urban growth has been driven by mass immigration; as a consequence of economic growth and urban expansion, a large amount of farmland has been converted to paved road and residential buildings. Furthermore, the difference between air temperature in urban and exurban areas has increased rapidly. The decrease of high mean annual NDVI has mainly occurred around the dense urban areas.

Remote sensing of impervious surface growth: A framework for quantifying urban expansion and re-densification mechanisms

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shahtahmassebi, Amir Reza; Song, Jie; Zheng, Qing; Blackburn, George Alan; Wang, Ke; Huang, Ling Yan; Pan, Yi; Moore, Nathan; Shahtahmassebi, Golnaz; Sadrabadi Haghighi, Reza; Deng, Jing Song

2016-04-01

A substantial body of literature has accumulated on the topic of using remotely sensed data to map impervious surfaces which are widely recognized as an important indicator of urbanization. However, the remote sensing of impervious surface growth has not been successfully addressed. This study proposes a new framework for deriving and summarizing urban expansion and re-densification using time series of impervious surface fractions (ISFs) derived from remotely sensed imagery. This approach integrates multiple endmember spectral mixture analysis (MESMA), analysis of regression residuals, spatial statistics (Getis_Ord) and urban growth theories; hence, the framework is abbreviated as MRGU. The performance of MRGU was compared with commonly used change detection techniques in order to evaluate the effectiveness of the approach. The results suggested that the ISF regression residuals were optimal for detecting impervious surface changes while Getis_Ord was effective for mapping hotspot regions in the regression residuals image. Moreover, the MRGU outputs agreed with the mechanisms proposed in several existing urban growth theories, but importantly the outputs enable the refinement of such models by explicitly accounting for the spatial distribution of both expansion and re-densification mechanisms. Based on Landsat data, the MRGU is somewhat restricted in its ability to measure re-densification in the urban core but this may be improved through the use of higher spatial resolution satellite imagery. The paper ends with an assessment of the present gaps in remote sensing of impervious surface growth and suggests some solutions. The application of impervious surface fractions in urban change detection is a stimulating new research idea which is driving future research with new models and algorithms.

Calibrated Multi-Temporal Edge Images for City Infrastructure Growth Assessment and Prediction

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Al-Ruzouq, R.; Shanableh, A.; Boharoon, Z.; Khalil, M.

2018-03-01

Urban Growth or urbanization can be defined as the gradual process of city's population growth and infrastructure development. It is typically demonstrated by the expansion of a city's infrastructure, mainly development of its roads and buildings. Uncontrolled urban Growth in cities has been responsible for several problems that include living environment, drinking water, noise and air pollution, waste management, traffic congestion and hydraulic processes. Accurate identification of urban growth is of great importance for urban planning and water/land management. Recent advances in satellite imagery, in terms of improved spatial and temporal resolutions, allows for efficient identification of change patterns and the prediction of built-up areas. In this study, two approaches were adapted to quantify and assess the pattern of urbanization, in Ajman City at UAE, during the last three decades. The first approach relies on image processing techniques and multi-temporal Landsat satellite images with ground resolution varying between 15 to 60 meters. In this approach, the derived edge images (roads and buildings) were used as the basis of change detection. The second approach relies on digitizing features from high-resolution images captured at different years. The latest approach was adopted, as a reference and ground truth, to calibrate extracted edges from Landsat images. It has been found that urbanized area almost increased by 12 folds during the period 1975-2015 where the growth of buildings and roads were almost parallel until 2005 when the roads spatial expansion witnessed a steep increase due to the vertical expansion of the City. Extracted Edges features, were successfully used for change detection and quantification in term of buildings and roads.

Gender, migration and urban development in Costa Rica: the case of Guanacaste.

PubMed

Chant, S

1991-01-01

Factors fueling urbanization in Guanacaste province, Costa Rica are explored and how the pattern of urban growth reflects gender divisions of labor is considered. Urbanization in Latin America has been due largely to the expansion of economic activities in urban centers, but in Guanacaste, rural employment persists among the poor. Towns in this peripheral province have witnessed no major expansion in urban-based employment opportunities. On the basis of an in-depth survey of urban dwellers in the province's 3 leading towns (Liberia, Canas, and Santa Cruz), an attempt is made to explain Guanacaste's urbanization. The 1st section discusses the migration, urbanization, and economic development in Costa Rica, as well as Guanacaste. The 2nd section provides the findings of the survey of 350 low-income, urban households in Guanacaste, focusing on the households' reported reasons for moving. Section 3 examines household survival strategies in the areas surveyed, paying close attention to gender and age selectivity of short-term out-migration to external labor markets. Section 4 interprets the apparent connection between gender-differentiated labor migration and the dominance of reproductive factors in household decisions to move to urban centers. Section 5 considers the implications of the migration patterns on women, while section 6 discusses the wider implications of the study. The study reveals that in Guanacaste, urbanization is more strongly linked to the reproductive (e.g., housing and welfare) needs of household survival than to productive (employment and income) needs.

Reduction on NOx emissions on urban areas by changing specific vehicle fleets: effects on NO2 and O3 concentration

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Goncalves, M.; Jimenez, P.; Baldasano, J.

2007-12-01

The largest amount of NOx emissions in urban areas comes from on-road traffic, which is the largest contributor to urban air pollution (Colvile et al., 2001). Currently different strategies are being tested in order to reduce its effects; many of them oriented to the reduction of the unitary vehicles emissions, by alternative fuels use (such as biofuels, natural gas or hydrogen) or introduction of new technologies (such as hybrid electric vehicles or fuel cells). Atmospheric modelling permits to predict their consequences on tropospheric chemistry (Vautard et al., 2007). Hence, this work assesses the changes on NO2 and O3 concentrations when substituting a 10 per cent of the urban private cars fleets by petrol hybrid electric cars (HEC) or by natural gas cars (NGC) in Madrid and Barcelona urban areas (Spain). These two cities are selected in order to highlight the different patterns of pollutants transport (inland vs. coastal city) and the different responses to emissions reductions. The results focus on a typical summertime episode of air pollution, by means of the Eulerian air quality model ARW- WRF/HERMES/CMAQ, applied with high resolution (1-hr, 1km2) since of the complexity of both areas under study. The detailed emissions scenarios are implemented in the HERMES traffic emissions module, based on the Copert III-EEA/EMEP-CORINAIR (Nztiachristos and Samaras, 2000) methodology. The HEC introduction reduces NOx emissions from on-road traffic in a 10.8 per cent and 8.2 per cent; and the NGC introduction in a 10.3 per cent and 7.8 per cent, for Madrid and Barcelona areas, respectively. The scenarios also affect the NMVOCs reduction (ranging from -3.1 to -6.9 per cent), influencing the tropospheric photochemistry through the NOx/NMVOCs ratio. The abatement of the NO photooxidation but also to the reduction on primary NO2 involves a decrease on NO2 levels centred on urban areas. For example, the NO2 24-hr average concentration in downtown areas reduces up to 8 per cent (-6 μg m-3 on average). The urban areas are VOC-controlled, therefore the reduction on NOx emissions involves a minor increase on tropospheric O3 concentration (Jiménez and Baldasano, 2004), up to 1.5 per cent at some points. Nevertheless, the O3 precursors reduction has positive effects in the downwind areas affected by the urban plume, slightly reducing the O3 levels, but at the regional scale the reduction applied on urban traffic emissions has negligible effects. Both scenarios tested are very similar in terms of emissions reductions and air quality changes, which means that the NOx/NMVOCs ratio do not involve an O3-sensitivity regime variation among scenarios. The HEC scenario is more effective in reducing NO2 levels in urban areas than the NGC scenario (with maximum reductions affecting a larger area) and involves a larger increase in urban O3 concentration.

Xingu Project - Integrating Land Use Planning and Water Governance in Amazonia: Towards Improved Freshwater Security in the Agricultural Frontier of Mato Grosso.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Krusche, A. V.; Ballester, M. V.; Neill, C.; Elsenbeer, H.; Johnson, M. S.; Coe, M. T.; Garavello, M.; Molina, S. G.; Empinotti, V.; Reichardt, F.; Deegan, L.; Harris, L.

2014-12-01

The main goal of this project is to identify how impacts from land conversion, cropland expansion and intensification of both crop and animal production interact to affect regional evapotranspiration, rainfall generation, river flooding, and water quality and stream habitats, allowing us to identify thresholds of change that will endanger agricultural production, livelihoods of non-agricultural settlers and the region's new urban population and infrastructure. We will survey the effects of this on (1) soybean farmers, (2) cattle ranchers, (3) small-scale farm families, (4) rural non-agriculturists, including fishers, and (5) urban residents and map their roles as stakeholders. We will also conduct current water use surveys among the different stakeholder groups, accompanied by questions on desired aspects for future freshwater security to identify targets for desirable outcomes of water governance strategies. These targets, together with the information on land use drivers, water quantity and quality and predicted scenarios for global changes will be incorporated into a fully integrated and interactive geospatially oriented socio-ecological model that can serve as framework for future water governance that enhances Freshwater Security in such systems. This is an international cooperation initiative lead by Brazil and with the participation of Canada, Germany and United States of America.

Urban compaction vs city sprawl: impact of road traffic on air quality in the greater Paris

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Etuman Arthur, Elessa; Isabelle, Coll; Vincent, Viguie; Nicolas, Coulombel; Julie, Prud'homme

2017-04-01

Urban pollution remains a major sanitary and economic concern. In France, particulate pollution is known to cause 48,000 premature deaths every year (Santé Publique France, 2016), while the economic cost of air pollution reaches almost 25 billion euros per year (CGDD, 2012). In the Greater Paris, despite strengthened emission standards, restricted traffic areas, car-sharing and incentives for electric vehicle use, road transport plays a substantial role in the exposure of inhabitants to high levels of pollutants. In this context, urban planning could possibly constitute an innovative strategy to reduce emissions from road traffic, through its actions on transport demand, travel distances, modal shift (public transportation, cycling, walking...) or even proximity to emitters. We have developed a multi-scalar modeling of urban pollution by coupling an urban economic growth model NEDUM (CIRED), a model for urban mobility (LISA), a traffic emission model (LISA) and the CHIMERE Chemistry-Transport model (CTM) for air quality simulation (LISA). The innovative aspect of this modeling system is to integrate into a classic CTM the mechanisms underlying the dynamics of an urban system. This way, we establish a quantitative and comprehensive link between a given urban scenario, the associated public and individual transport matrix, and local air quality. We then make it possible to highlight the levers of energy consumption reductions inside compact or sprawled cities. We have been working on the Ile de France region (centered on the Paris agglomeration) which relies on a broad urban structure of megacity, a high density of housing and an expanding urban peripheral zone, clearly raising the issue of transport demand, mobility and traffic congestion. Two scenarios, considering opposite urban development policies from the 1960s to 2010, have been simulated over the whole modelling chain. The first one promotes a dense and compact city while the second favors city spread, though restricted by a green belt. In our results, we compare the local air quality simulated in these scenarios with our reference situation (the current 2010 situation). The spreading or densification of the city contribute a little to the air quality and therefore a reflection on a real mix of the urban canvas is probably an influencing factor for the reduction of the motorized mobility. We should also consider more advanced scenarios (in the course of production) for the reduction of individual transport like encouraging car-pooling, which has a maximum daily trip reduction potential of 16% in urban areas (CGDD, 2014).

Agricultural implications of providing soil-based constraints on urban expansion: Land use forecasts to 2050.

PubMed

Smidt, Samuel J; Tayyebi, Amin; Kendall, Anthony D; Pijanowski, Bryan C; Hyndman, David W

2018-07-01

Urbanization onto adjacent farmlands directly reduces the agricultural area available to meet the resource needs of a growing society. Soil conservation is a common objective in urban planning, but little focus has been placed on targeting soil value as a metric for conservation. This study assigns commodity and water storage values to the agricultural soils across all of the watersheds in Michigan's Lower Peninsula to evaluate how cities might respond to a soil conservation-based urbanization strategy. Land Transformation Model (LTM) simulations representing both traditional and soil conservation-based urbanization, are used to forecast urban area growth from 2010 to 2050 at five year intervals. The expansion of urban areas onto adjacent farmland is then evaluated to quantify the conservation effects of soil-based development. Results indicate that a soil-based protection strategy significantly conserves total farmland, especially more fertile soils within each soil type. In terms of revenue, ∼$88 million (in current dollars) would be conserved in 2050 using soil-based constraints, with the projected savings from 2011 to 2050 totaling more than $1.5 billion. Soil-based urbanization also increased urban density for each major metropolitan area. For example, there were 94,640 more acres directly adjacent to urban land by 2050 under traditional development compared to the soil-based urbanization strategy, indicating that urban sprawl was more tightly contained when including soil value as a metric to guide development. This study indicates that implementing a soil-based urbanization strategy would better satisfy future agricultural resource needs than traditional urban planning. Copyright © 2018. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

Resilient landscapes in Mediterranean urban areas: Understanding factors influencing forest trends.

PubMed

Tomao, Antonio; Quatrini, Valerio; Corona, Piermaria; Ferrara, Agostino; Lafortezza, Raffaele; Salvati, Luca

2017-07-01

Urban and peri-urban forests are recognized as basic elements for Nature-Based Solutions (NBS), as they preserve and may increase environmental quality in urbanized contexts. For this reason, the amount of forest land per inhabitant is a pivotal efficiency indicator to be considered in the sustainable governance, land management, planning and design of metropolitan areas. The present study illustrates a multivariate analysis of per-capita forest area (PFA) in mainland Attica, the urban region surrounding Athens, Greece. Attica is considered a typical case of Mediterranean urbanization where planning has not regulated urban expansion and successive waves of spontaneous growth have occurred over time. In such a context, an analysis of factors that can affect landscape changes in terms of PFA may inform effective strategies for the sustainable management of socio-ecological local systems in light of the NBS perspective. A total of 26 indicators were collected per decade at the municipal scale in the study area with the aim to identify the factors most closely associated to the amount of PFA. Indicators of urban morphology and functions have been considered together with environmental and topographical variables. In Attica, PFA showed a progressive decrease between 1960 and 2010. In particular, PFA progressively declined (1980, 1990) along fringe areas surrounding Athens and in peri-urban districts experiencing dispersed expansion of residential settlements. Distance from core cities and from the seacoast, typical urban functions (e.g., multiple use of buildings and per capita built-up area) and percentage of agricultural land-use in each municipality are the variables most associated with high PFA. In recent years, some municipalities have shown an expansion of forest cover, mainly due to land abandonment and forest recolonization. Findings from this case study have allowed us to identify priorities for NBS at metropolitan level aimed at promoting more sustainable urbanization. Distinctively, proposed NBS basically focus on (i) the effective protection of crop mosaics with relict woodlots; (ii) the improvement of functionality, quality and accessibility of new forests; and (iii) the establishment of new forests in rural municipalities. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

A web-based 3D visualisation and assessment system for urban precinct scenario modelling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Trubka, Roman; Glackin, Stephen; Lade, Oliver; Pettit, Chris

2016-07-01

Recent years have seen an increasing number of spatial tools and technologies for enabling better decision-making in the urban environment. They have largely arisen because of the need for cities to be more efficiently planned to accommodate growing populations while mitigating urban sprawl, and also because of innovations in rendering data in 3D being well suited for visualising the urban built environment. In this paper we review a number of systems that are better known and more commonly used in the field of urban planning. We then introduce Envision Scenario Planner (ESP), a web-based 3D precinct geodesign, visualisation and assessment tool, developed using Agile and Co-design methods. We provide a comprehensive account of the tool, beginning with a discussion of its design and development process and concluding with an example use case and a discussion of the lessons learned in its development.

A Generic Simulation Model of the Relative Cost-Effectiveness of ICU Versus Step-Down (IMCU) Expansion.

PubMed

Mahmoudian-Dehkordi, Amin; Sadat, Somayeh

2017-01-01

Many jurisdictions are facing increased demand for intensive care. There are two long-term investment options: intensive care unit (ICU) versus step-down or intermediate care unit (IMCU) capacity expansion. Relative cost-effectiveness of the two investment strategies with regard to patient lives saved has not been studied to date. We expand a generic system dynamics simulation model of emergency patient flow in a typical hospital, populated with empirical evidence found in the medical and hospital administration literature, to estimate the long-term effects of expanding ICU versus IMCU beds on patient lives saved under a common assumption of 2.1% annual increase in hospital arrivals. Two alternative policies of expanding ICU by two beds versus introducing a two-bed IMCU are compared over a ten-year simulation period. Russel equation is used to calculate total cost of patients' hospitalization. Using two possible values for the ratio of ICU to IMCU cost per inpatient day and four possible values for the percentage of patients transferred from ICU to IMCU found in the literature, nine scenarios are compared against the baseline scenario of no capacity expansion. Expanding ICU capacity by two beds is demonstrated as the most cost-effective scenario with an incremental cost-effectiveness ratio of 3684 (US $) per life saved against the baseline scenario. Sensitivity analyses on the mortality rate of patients in IMCU, direct transfer of IMCU-destined patients to the ward upon completing required IMCU length of stay in the ICU, admission of IMCU patient to ICU, adding two ward beds, and changes in hospital size do not change the superiority of ICU expansion over other scenarios. In terms of operational costs, ICU beds are more cost effective for saving patients than IMCU beds. However, capital costs of setting up ICU versus IMCU beds should be considered for a complete economic analysis.

WSN system design by using an innovative neural network model to perform thermals forecasting in a urban canyon scenario

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Giuseppina, Nicolosi; Salvatore, Tirrito

2015-12-01

Wireless Sensor Networks (WSNs) were studied by researchers in order to manage Heating, Ventilating and Air-Conditioning (HVAC) indoor systems. WSN can be useful specially to regulate indoor confort in a urban canyon scenario, where the thermal parameters vary rapidly, influenced by outdoor climate changing. This paper shows an innovative neural network approach, by using WSN data collected, in order to forecast the indoor temperature to varying the outdoor conditions based on climate parameters and boundary conditions typically of urban canyon. In this work more attention will be done to influence of traffic jam and number of vehicles in queue.

Outdoor recreation opportunities and land use change in Vermont's Lake Champlain Basin

Treesearch

John J. Lindsay

1995-01-01

Outdoor recreation resources are eroding in Vermont's Lake Champlain Basin due to urban expansion. This study measured urban growth in the Basin and identified critical areas for open space protection. The study's hypothesis, that there was no difference between the Champlain Basin and other parts of urbanizing New England that have lost outdoor recreation...

Environmental Assessment: Sooner Drop Zone Expansion Altus Air Force Base, Oklahoma

DTIC Science & Technology

2003-08-01

AND OUTDOOR NOISE SOURCES NOISE LEVEL (dBA) COMMON INDOOR NOISE LEVELS COMMON OUTDOOR NOISE LEVELS Jet Flyover at 1000 ft. Gas Lawn Mower at 3 ft...Diesel Truck at 50 ft. Noise Urban Daytime Gas Lawn Mower at 100 ft. Commercial Area Heavy Traffic at 300 ft. Quiet Urban Daytime Quiet Urban Nighttime

Optimization of urban water supply portfolios combining infrastructure capacity expansion and water use decisions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Medellin-Azuara, J.; Fraga, C. C. S.; Marques, G.; Mendes, C. A.

2015-12-01

The expansion and operation of urban water supply systems under rapidly growing demands, hydrologic uncertainty, and scarce water supplies requires a strategic combination of various supply sources for added reliability, reduced costs and improved operational flexibility. The design and operation of such portfolio of water supply sources merits decisions of what and when to expand, and how much to use of each available sources accounting for interest rates, economies of scale and hydrologic variability. The present research provides a framework and an integrated methodology that optimizes the expansion of various water supply alternatives using dynamic programming and combining both short term and long term optimization of water use and simulation of water allocation. A case study in Bahia Do Rio Dos Sinos in Southern Brazil is presented. The framework couples an optimization model with quadratic programming model in GAMS with WEAP, a rain runoff simulation models that hosts the water supply infrastructure features and hydrologic conditions. Results allow (a) identification of trade offs between cost and reliability of different expansion paths and water use decisions and (b) evaluation of potential gains by reducing water system losses as a portfolio component. The latter is critical in several developing countries where water supply system losses are high and often neglected in favor of more system expansion. Results also highlight the potential of various water supply alternatives including, conservation, groundwater, and infrastructural enhancements over time. The framework proves its usefulness for planning its transferability to similarly urbanized systems.

Modeling Land Use Change Impacts on Water Resources in a Tropical West African Catchment (dano, Burkina Faso)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yira, Y.; Diekkrüger, B.; Steup, G.; Bossa, A. Y.

2015-12-01

This study investigates the impacts of land use change on water resources in the Dano catchment, Burkina Faso, using a physically based hydrological simulation model and land use scenarios. Land use dynamic in the catchment was assessed through the analysis of four land use maps corresponding to the land use status in 1990, 2000, 2007 and 2013. A reclassification procedure of the maps permitted to assess the major land use changes in the catchment from 1990 to 2013. The land use maps were used to build five land use scenarios corresponding to different levels of land use change in the catchment. Water balance was simulated by applying the Water flow and balance Simulation Model (WaSiM) using observed discharge, soil moisture, and groundwater level for model calibration and validation. Model statistical quality measures (R2, NSE and KGE) achieved during the calibration and the validation ranged between 0.9 and 0.6 for total discharge, soil moisture, and groundwater level, indicating satisfying to good agreements between observed and simulated variables. After a successful multi-criteria validation the model was run with the land use scenarios. The land use assessment exhibited a decrease of savannah at an annual rate of 2% since 1990. Conversely, cropland and urban areas have increased. Since urban areas occupy only 3% of the catchment in 2013 it can be assumed that savannah was mainly converted to cropland. The increase in cropland area results from the population growth and the farming system in the catchment. A clear increase in total discharge (+17%) and decrease in evapotranspiration (-5%) was observed following land use change in the catchment. A strong relationship was established between savannah degradation, cropland expansion, discharge increase and reduction of evapotranspiration. The increase in total discharge is related to high discharge and peak flow, suggesting (i) an increase in water resources that is not available for plant growth and the population of the catchment and (ii) an alteration of flood risk for both the population within and downstream of the catchment.

The economic value of the flow regulation environmental service in a Brazilian urban watershed

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Marques, Guilherme F.; de Souza, Verônica B. F. S.; Moraes, Natália V.

2017-11-01

Urban flood management have often focused either on the capacity expansion of drainage systems or on artificial detention storage. While flood control should take part early on urban planning, not enough is known to guide such plans and provide incentive to land use decisions that minimize the vulnerability to localized floods. In this paper, we offer a broader perspective on flood protection, by treating the original hydrologic flow regulation as an environmental service, and exploring how the value of this environmental service drives economic land use decisions that convert original (permeable) land into urbanized (impermeable). We investigate the relationship between land use decisions and their hydrologic consequences explicitly, and use this relationship to simulate resulting land use scenarios depending on the value attached to the environmental service of flow regulation. Rainfall-runoff simulation model results are combined to an optimization model based on two-stage stochastic programming approach to model economic land use decisions. The objective function maximizes the total expected land use benefit in an urban area, considering the opportunity cost of permeable areas in the first stage and the resulting loss of the environmental service of flow regulation on the second stage, under several probable hydrological events. A watershed in the city of Belo Horizonte, Brazil, is used to demonstrate the approach. Different values attached to the environmental service were tested, from zero to higher than the opportunity cost of land, and artificial detention infrastructure was included to calculate the resulting land use change and the loss in the environmental service value. Results indicate that by valuing the environmental service loss and discounting it from the economic benefits of land use, alternative solutions to land use are found, with decreased peak flows and lower flood frequency. Combined solutions including structural and non-structural techniques provide more cost effective results, avoiding both the depletion of the environmental service and the high opportunity cost associated to valuable commercial urban areas. Urban development under such premises will be more resilient and adapted to local flooding, instead of relying on increasingly expensive infrastructure.

A Problem-Based Learning Scenario That Can Be Used in Science Teacher Education

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Sezgin Selçuk, Gamze

2015-01-01

The purpose of this study is to introduce a problem-based learning (PBL) scenario that elementary school science teachers in middle school (5th-8th grades) can use in their in-service training. The scenario treats the subjects of heat, temperature and thermal expansion within the scope of the 5th and 6th grade science course syllabi and has been…

Changes in Urban Climate due to Future Land-Use Changes based on Population Changes in the Nagoya Region

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Adachi, S. A.; Hara, M.; Takahashi, H. G.; Ma, X.; Yoshikane, T.; Kimura, F.

2013-12-01

Severe hot weather in summer season becomes a big social problem in metropolitan areas, including the Nagoya region in Japan. Surface air temperature warming is projected in the future. Therefore, the reduction of surface air temperature is an urgent issue in the urban area. Although there are several studies dealing with the effects of global climate change and urbanization to the local climate in the future, these studies tend to ignore the future population changes. This study estimates future land-use scenarios associated with the multi-projections of future population and investigates the impacts of these scenarios on the surface temperature change. The Weather Research and Forecast model ver. 3.3.1 (hereafter, WRF) was used in this study. The horizontal resolutions were 20km, 4km, and 2km, for outer, middle, and inner domains, respectively. The results from the inner domain, covering the Nagoya region, were used for the analysis. The Noah land surface model and the single-layer urban canopy model were applied to calculate the land surface processes and urban surface processes, respectively. The initial and boundary conditions were given from the NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data in August 2010. The urban area ratio used in the WRF model was calculated from the future land-use data provided by the S8 project. The land-use data was created as follows. (1) Three scenarios of population, namely, with high-fertility assumption and low-mortality assumption (POP-high), with medium-fertility assumption and medium-mortality assumption (POP-med), and with low-fertility assumption and high-mortality assumption (POP-low), are estimated using the method proposed by Ariga and Matsuhashi (2012). These scenarios are based on the future projections provided by the National Institute of Population and Social Security Research. (2) The future changes in urban area ratio were assumed to be proportional to the population change (Hanasaki et al., 2012). The averaged urban area ratio in the Nagoya region was 0.37 in 2010. The area ratios were projected to reach a peak in 2010 to 2020, and then to decrease in the future in all of scenarios. The urban heat island intensity in the Nagoya region is about 1.5°C in 2010. In contrast, the differences of surface temperature is -0.17°C, -0.21°C, and -0.30°C in POP-high, POP-med, and POP-low, from the current situation in 2010. These impacts correspond to the 10% to 20% of current urban heat island intensity. However, the changes in the efficiency of energy consumption were not considered. Considering that the future surface temperature change is projected to be about 1.2°C to 4°C in 2070, it is required to quantitatively evaluate future urban scenarios including the mitigation strategies for urban heat island such as the improvement of energy consumption, greening, and so on. Acknowledgments. This study was supported by the Research Program on Climate Change Adaptation (RECCA) Fund by Ministry of Education, Culture, Sports, Science and Technology (MEXT) of Japan and the Global Environment Research Fund (S-8) of the Ministry of the Environment of Japan.

Biodiversity losses and conservation trade-offs: Assessing future urban growth scenarios for a North American trade corridor

USGS Publications Warehouse

Villarreal, Miguel; Norman, Laura M.; Wallace, Cynthia S.A.; Boykin, Kenneth

2013-01-01

The Sonoran Desert and Apache Highlands ecoregions of North America are areas of exceptionally high plant and vertebrate biodiversity. However, much of the vertebrate biodiversity is supported by only a few vegetation types with limited distributions, some of which are increasingly threatened by changing land uses. We assessed the impacts of two future urban growth scenarios on biodiversity in a binational watershed in Arizona, USA and Sonora, Mexico. We quantified and mapped terrestrial vertebrate species richness using Wildlife Habitat Relation models and validated the results with data from National Park Service biological inventories. Future urban growth, based on historical trends, was projected to the year 2050 for 1) a “Current Trends” scenario and, 2) a “Megalopolis” scenario that represented a transnational growth corridor with open-space conservation attributes. Based on Current Trends, 45% of existing riparian woodland (267 of 451species), and 34% of semi-desert grasslands (215 of 451 species) will be lost, whereas, in the Megalopolis scenario, these types would decline by 44% and 24% respectively. Outcomes of the two models suggest a trade-off at the taxonomic class level: Current Trends would reduce and fragment mammal and herpetofauna habitat, while Megalopolis would result in loss of avian-rich riparian habitat.

A Merging Approach for Urban Boundary Correction Acquired By Remote Sensing Images

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, P. L.; Shi, W. Z.; Wu, X. Y.

2014-11-01

Since reform and opening up to outside world, ever-growing economy and development of urbanization of China have caused expansion of the urban land scale. It's necessary to grasp the information about urban spatial form change, expansion situation and expanding regularity, in order to provide the scientific basis for urban management and planning. The traditional methods, like land supply cumulative method and remote sensing, to get the urban area, existed some defects. Their results always doesn't accord with the reality, and can't reflects the actual size of the urban area. Therefore, we propose a new method, making the best use of remote sensing, the population data, road data and other social economic statistic data. Because urban boundary not only expresses a geographical concept, also a social economic systems.It's inaccurate to describe urban area with only geographic areas. We firstly use remote sensing images, demographic data, road data and other data to produce urban boundary respectively. Then we choose the weight value for each boundary, and in terms of a certain model the ultimate boundary can be obtained by a series of calculations of previous boundaries. To verify the validity of this method, we design a set of experiments and obtained the preliminary results. The results have shown that this method can extract the urban area well and conforms with both the broad and narrow sense. Compared with the traditional methods, it's more real-time, objective and ornamental.

Regional assessment of North America: Urbanization trends, biodiversity patterns, and ecosystem services

USGS Publications Warehouse

McPhearson, Timon; Auch, Roger F.; Alberti, Marina

2013-01-01

North America contains some of the most urbanized landscapes in the world. In the United States (U.S.) and Canada, approximately 80 % of the population is urban, with Mexico slightly less (Kaiser Family Foundation 2013). Population growth combined with economic growth has fueled recent urban land expansion in North America. Between 1970 and 2000, urban land area expanded at a rate of 3.31 % (Seto et al. 2011) creating unique challenges for conserving biodiversity and maintaining regional and local ecosystem services.

Mapping Impervious Surface Expansion using Medium-resolution Satellite Image Time Series: A Case Study in the Yangtze River Delta, China

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Gao, Feng; DeColstoun, Eric Brown; Ma, Ronghua; Weng, Qihao; Masek, Jeffrey G.; Chen, Jin; Pan, Yaozhong; Song, Conghe

2012-01-01

Cities have been expanding rapidly worldwide, especially over the past few decades. Mapping the dynamic expansion of impervious surface in both space and time is essential for an improved understanding of the urbanization process, land-cover and land-use change, and their impacts on the environment. Landsat and other medium-resolution satellites provide the necessary spatial details and temporal frequency for mapping impervious surface expansion over the past four decades. Since the US Geological Survey opened the historical record of the Landsat image archive for free access in 2008, the decades-old bottleneck of data limitation has gone. Remote-sensing scientists are now rich with data, and the challenge is how to make best use of this precious resource. In this article, we develop an efficient algorithm to map the continuous expansion of impervious surface using a time series of four decades of medium-resolution satellite images. The algorithm is based on a supervised classification of the time-series image stack using a decision tree. Each imerpervious class represents urbanization starting in a different image. The algorithm also allows us to remove inconsistent training samples because impervious expansion is not reversible during the study period. The objective is to extract a time series of complete and consistent impervious surface maps from a corresponding times series of images collected from multiple sensors, and with a minimal amount of image preprocessing effort. The approach was tested in the lower Yangtze River Delta region, one of the fastest urban growth areas in China. Results from nearly four decades of medium-resolution satellite data from the Landsat Multispectral Scanner (MSS), Thematic Mapper (TM), Enhanced Thematic Mapper plus (ETM+) and China-Brazil Earth Resources Satellite (CBERS) show a consistent urbanization process that is consistent with economic development plans and policies. The time-series impervious spatial extent maps derived from this study agree well with an existing urban extent polygon data set that was previously developed independently. The overall mapping accuracy was estimated at about 92.5% with 3% commission error and 12% omission error for the impervious type from all images regardless of image quality and initial spatial resolution.

Urbanization and environmental change during the economic transition on the Mongolian Plateau: Hohhot and Ulaanbaatar.

PubMed

Fan, Peilei; Chen, Jiquan; John, Ranjeet

2016-01-01

Driven by drastic socioeconomic changes in China and Mongolia, urbanization has become one of the most significant driving forces in the transformation of the Mongolian Plateau in the past 30 years. Using Hohhot and Ulaanbaatar as case studies, we developed a holistic approach to examine the socioeconomic and natural driving forces for urbanization and to investigate the impact on the urban environment. We used a multidisciplinary approach and relied on a variety of data sources to assess the changes of the landscape and environment of the two cities. We detected a rapid urbanization in Hohhot and Ulaanbaatar, both in terms of urban population growth and urban land expansion, from 1990 to 2010, with a much faster speed in 2000-2010. The local geo-physical conditions have constrained the spatial direction of expansion. Ulaanbaatar lagged behind Hohhot for about a decade when measured by indicators of urban population and urban land. Both cities have a degraded urban environment and a growing air pollution epidemic. While Hohhot had worse air pollution than Ulaanbaatar in the early 2000s, the gap between the two cities became smaller after 2010. The research presented here highlights the following as key determinants for urbanization and environmental change: (1) the co-evolution of urbanization, economic development, and environmental change; (2) the urbanization of transitional economies driven by the change of the economic structure, i.e., the development by both manufacturing and tertiary sectors and the change in the primary sector; and (3) the recent institutional changes and increased integration with the global economy. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Evolution of the vertebrate phototransduction cascade activation steps.

PubMed

Lamb, Trevor D; Hunt, David M

2017-11-01

We examine the molecular phylogeny of the proteins underlying the activation steps of vertebrate phototransduction, for both agnathan and jawed vertebrate taxa. We expand the number of taxa analysed and we update the alignment and tree building methodology from a previous analysis. For each of the four primary components (the G-protein transducin alpha subunit, Gα T , the cyclic GMP phosphodiesterase, PDE6, and the alpha and beta subunits of the cGMP-gated ion channel, CNGC), the phylogenies appear consistent with expansion from an ancestral proto-vertebrate cascade during two rounds of whole-genome duplication followed by divergence of the agnathan and jawed vertebrate lineages. In each case, we consider possible scenarios for the underlying gene duplications and losses, and we apply relevant constraints to the tree construction. From tests of the topology of the resulting trees, we obtain a scenario for the expansion of each component during 2R that accurately fits the observations. Similar analysis of the visual opsins indicates that the only expansion to have occurred during 2R was the formation of Rh1 and Rh2. Finally, we propose a hypothetical scenario for the conversion of an ancestral chordate cascade into the proto-vertebrate phototransduction cascade, prior to whole-genome duplication. Together, our models provide a plausible account for the origin and expansion of the vertebrate phototransduction cascade. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Incorporating future change into current conservation planning: Evaluating tidal saline wetland migration along the U.S. Gulf of Mexico coast under alternative sea-level rise and urbanization scenarios

USGS Publications Warehouse

Enwright, Nicholas M.; Griffith, Kereen T.; Osland, Michael J.

2015-11-02

In this study, the U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service, quantified the potential for landward migration of tidal saline wetlands along the U.S. Gulf of Mexico coast under alternative future sea-level rise and urbanization scenarios. Our analyses focused exclusively on tidal saline wetlands (that is, mangrove forests, salt marshes, and salt flats), and we combined these diverse tidal saline wetland ecosystems into a single grouping, “tidal saline wetland.” Collectively, our approach and findings can provide useful information for scientists and environmental planners working to develop future-focused adaptation strategies for conserving coastal landscapes and the ecosystem goods and services provided by tidal saline wetlands. The primary product of this work is a public dataset that identifies locations where landward migration of tidal saline wetlands is expected to occur under alternative future sea-level rise and urbanization scenarios. In addition to identifying areas where landward migration of tidal saline wetlands is possible because of the absence of barriers, these data also identify locations where landward migration of these wetlands could be prevented by barriers associated with current urbanization, future urbanization, and levees.

Source-Based Modeling Of Urban Stormwater Quality Response to the Selected Scenarios Combining Future Changes in Climate and Socio-Economic Factors

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Borris, Matthias; Leonhardt, Günther; Marsalek, Jiri; Österlund, Heléne; Viklander, Maria

2016-08-01

The assessment of future trends in urban stormwater quality should be most helpful for ensuring the effectiveness of the existing stormwater quality infrastructure in the future and mitigating the associated impacts on receiving waters. Combined effects of expected changes in climate and socio-economic factors on stormwater quality were examined in two urban test catchments by applying a source-based computer model (WinSLAMM) for TSS and three heavy metals (copper, lead, and zinc) for various future scenarios. Generally, both catchments showed similar responses to the future scenarios and pollutant loads were generally more sensitive to changes in socio-economic factors (i.e., increasing traffic intensities, growth and intensification of the individual land-uses) than in the climate. Specifically, for the selected Intermediate socio-economic scenario and two climate change scenarios (RSP = 2.6 and 8.5), the TSS loads from both catchments increased by about 10 % on average, but when applying the Intermediate climate change scenario (RCP = 4.5) for two SSPs, the Sustainability and Security scenarios (SSP1 and SSP3), the TSS loads increased on average by 70 %. Furthermore, it was observed that well-designed and maintained stormwater treatment facilities targeting local pollution hotspots exhibited the potential to significantly improve stormwater quality, however, at potentially high costs. In fact, it was possible to reduce pollutant loads from both catchments under the future Sustainability scenario (on average, e.g., TSS were reduced by 20 %), compared to the current conditions. The methodology developed in this study was found useful for planning climate change adaptation strategies in the context of local conditions.

Source-Based Modeling Of Urban Stormwater Quality Response to the Selected Scenarios Combining Future Changes in Climate and Socio-Economic Factors.

PubMed

Borris, Matthias; Leonhardt, Günther; Marsalek, Jiri; Österlund, Heléne; Viklander, Maria

2016-08-01

The assessment of future trends in urban stormwater quality should be most helpful for ensuring the effectiveness of the existing stormwater quality infrastructure in the future and mitigating the associated impacts on receiving waters. Combined effects of expected changes in climate and socio-economic factors on stormwater quality were examined in two urban test catchments by applying a source-based computer model (WinSLAMM) for TSS and three heavy metals (copper, lead, and zinc) for various future scenarios. Generally, both catchments showed similar responses to the future scenarios and pollutant loads were generally more sensitive to changes in socio-economic factors (i.e., increasing traffic intensities, growth and intensification of the individual land-uses) than in the climate. Specifically, for the selected Intermediate socio-economic scenario and two climate change scenarios (RSP = 2.6 and 8.5), the TSS loads from both catchments increased by about 10 % on average, but when applying the Intermediate climate change scenario (RCP = 4.5) for two SSPs, the Sustainability and Security scenarios (SSP1 and SSP3), the TSS loads increased on average by 70 %. Furthermore, it was observed that well-designed and maintained stormwater treatment facilities targeting local pollution hotspots exhibited the potential to significantly improve stormwater quality, however, at potentially high costs. In fact, it was possible to reduce pollutant loads from both catchments under the future Sustainability scenario (on average, e.g., TSS were reduced by 20 %), compared to the current conditions. The methodology developed in this study was found useful for planning climate change adaptation strategies in the context of local conditions.

Scenarios and decisionmaking for complex environmental systems

Treesearch

Stephen R. Carpenter; Adena R. Rissman

2012-01-01

Scenarios are used for expanding the scope of imaginable outcomes considered by assessments, planning exercises, or research projects on social-ecological systems. We discuss a global case study, the Millennium Ecosystem Assessment, and a regional project for an urbanizing agricultural watershed. Qualitative and quantitative aspects of scenarios are complementary....

Water consumption related to different diets in Mediterranean cities.

PubMed

Vanham, D; Del Pozo, S; Pekcan, A G; Keinan-Boker, L; Trichopoulou, A; Gawlik, B M

2016-12-15

Providing the sustainable development goals (SDGs) water, food and energy security to cities relies strongly on resource use outside city borders. Many modern cities have recently invested in a sustainable urban water system, and score high in international city rankings regarding water management and direct urban water use. However, these rankings generally neglect external resource use for cities. Here we quantify the water resources related to food consumption in thirteen cities located in Mediterranean countries, by means of the water footprint (WF) concept. These WFs amount from 3277l per capita per day (l/cap/d) to 5789l/cap/d. These amounts are about thirty times higher than their direct urban water use. We additionally analyse the WF of three diet scenarios, based upon a Mediterranean dietary pattern. Many authors identify the Mediterranean diet as cultural heritage, being beneficial for human health and a model for a sustainable food system. The first diet scenario, a healthy Mediterranean diet including meat, leads to WF reductions of -19% to -43%. The second diet scenario (pesco-vegetarian), leads to WF reductions of -28% to -52%. The third diet scenario (vegetarian), leads to WF reductions of -30% to -53%. In other words, if urban citizens want to save water, they need to look at their diets. Copyright © 2016 The Authors. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

[Delimitation of urban growth boundary based on ecological suitability and risk control: A case of Taibai Lake New District in Jining City, Shandong, China.

PubMed

Liu, Yan Xu; Peng, Jian; Sun, Mao Long; Yang, Yang

2016-08-01

Urban growth boundary, with full consideration of regional ecological constraints, can effectively control the unordered urban sprawl. Thus, urban growth boundary is a significant planning concept integrating regional ecological protection and urban construction. Finding the preferential position for urban construction, as well as controlling the ecological risk, has always been the core content of urban growth boundary delimitation. This study selected Taibai Lake New District in Jining City as a case area, and analyzed the scenario of ecological suitability by ordered weighted ave-raging algorithm. Surface temperature retrieval and rain flooding simulation were used to identify the spatial ecological risk. In the result of ecological suitability, the suitable construction zone accounted for 25.3% of the total area, the unsuitable construction zone accounted for 20.4%, and the other area was in the limit construction zone. Excluding the ecological risk control region, the flexible urban growth boundary covered 2975 hm 2 in near term, and covered 6754 hm 2 in long term. The final inflexible urban growth boundary covered 9405 hm 2 . As a new method, the scenario algorithms of ordered weighted averaging and ecological risk modeling could provide effective support in urban growth boundary identification.

Global economic-biophysical assessment of midterm scenarios for agricultural markets—biofuel policies, dietary patterns, cropland expansion, and productivity growth

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Delzeit, Ruth; Klepper, Gernot; Zabel, Florian; Mauser, Wolfram

2018-02-01

Land-use decisions are made at the local level. They are influenced both by local factors and by global drivers and trends. These will most likely change over time e.g. due to political shocks, market developments or climate change. Hence, their influence should be taken into account when analysing and projecting local land-use decisions. We provide a set of mid-term scenarios of global drivers (until 2030) for use in regional and local studies on agriculture and land-use. In a participatory process, four important drivers are identified by experts from globally distributed regional studies: biofuel policies, increase in preferences for meat and dairy products in Asia, cropland expansion into uncultivated areas, and changes in agricultural productivity growth. Their impact on possible future developments of global and regional agricultural markets are analysed with a modelling framework consisting of a global computable general equilibrium model and a crop growth model. The business as usual (BAU) scenario causes production and prices of crops to rise over time. It also leads to a conversion of pasture land to cropland. Under different scenarios, global price changes range between -42 and +4% in 2030 compared to the BAU. An abolishment of biofuel targets does not significantly improve food security while an increased agricultural productivity and cropland expansion have a stronger impact on changes in food production and prices.

Evaluation of urban flood damages in climate and land use changes: Case Studies from Southeast Asia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kefi, M.; Binaya, M. K.; Kumar, P.; Fukushi, K.

2017-12-01

Urbanization, changes in land use and global warming increase the threat of natural disasters such as flooding. In recent decades, it was observed a rise of intensity and frequency of flood events. The exposure both of people and the national economy to flood hazards is amplified and can induce serious economic and social damages. For this reason, local governments adopted several strategies to cope with flood risk in urban areas in particular, but a better comprehension of the flood hazard factors may enhance the efficiency of mitigating measures overall. For this research, a spatial analysis is applied to estimate future direct flood damage for 2030 in three Southeast Asian megacities: Jakarta (Indonesia), Metro-Manila (Philippines) and Hanoi (Vietnam). This comprehensive method combined flood characteristics (flood depth) obtained from flood simulation using FLO-2D, land use generated from supervised classification and remote sensing products, property value of affected buildings and flood damage rate derived from flood depth function. This function is established based on field surveys with local people affected by past flood events. Additionally, two scenarios were analyzed to simulate the future conditions. The first one is related to climate change and it is based on several General Circulation Models (GCMs). However, the second one is establish to point out the effect of adaptation strategies. The findings shows that the climate change combined with the expansion of built-up areas increase the vulnerability of urban areas to flooding and the economic damage. About 16%, 8% and 19% of flood inundation areas are expected to increase respectively in Metro-Manila, Jakarta and Hanoi. However, appropriate flood control measures can be helpful to reduce the impact of natural disaster. Furthermore, flood damage maps are generated at a large scale, which can be helpful to local stakeholders when prioritizing their mitigation strategies on urban disaster resilience.

Apples to Apples: Equivalent-Reliability Power Systems Across Diverse Resource Mix Scenarios

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Stephen, Gordon W; Frew, Bethany A; Sigler, Devon

Electricity market research is highly price sensitive, and prices are strongly influenced by balance of supply and demand. This work looks at how to combine capacity expansion models and reliability assessment tools to assess equivalent-reliability power systems across diverse resource mix scenarios.

Cities as selective land predators? A lesson on urban growth, deregulated planning and sprawl containment.

PubMed

Colantoni, Andrea; Grigoriadis, Efstathios; Sateriano, Adele; Venanzoni, Giuseppe; Salvati, Luca

2016-03-01

The present study investigates changes in the use of land caused by the expansion of an informal city in the Mediterranean region (Athens, Greece) and it proposes a simplified methodology to assess selective land take at the scale of municipalities. The amount of land take over twenty years (1987-2007) for cropland, sparsely vegetated areas and natural land was compared with the surface area of the respective class at the beginning of the study period (1987). Indicators of selective land take by class were correlated with socioeconomic indicators at the scale of municipalities to verify the influence of the local context and the impact of urban planning on land take processes. Evidence indicates that urban expansion into fringe land consumes primarily cropland and sparse vegetation in the case of the Athens' metropolitan region. Cropland and sparse vegetation were consumed proportionally more than the respective availability in 16 municipalities out of 60. Agricultural land take was positively correlated with population density and growth rate, rate of participation to the job market and road density. Sparse vegetation land take was observed in municipalities with predominance of high density settlements. As a result of second-home expansion in coastal municipalities, natural land was converted to urban use in proportion to the availability in the landscape. Urban planning seems to have a limited impact on selective land take. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Construction Land Expansion and Transfer of Gravity Center from 1984 to 2016 : A study on Beijing - Tianjin - Hebei Urban Agglomeration

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lv, Jinxia; Jiang, Weiguo

2017-04-01

With the economic development and technological innovation, urban planning and construction has already broken through the shackles of the natural conditions such as topography and geomorphology, and the social factors such as politics and location have been affected by the urbanization process in the process of urbanization. At the same time, the synergies between urban development and local economy, national policy, industrial distribution and so on are also paid more attention. As the third pole of Chinese economy after the Pearl River Delta and the Yangtze River Delta, the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Metropolis Circle has attracted extensive attention on experts and scholars in its urban development and location. In recent years, studies on urban development have not only analyzed the spatial characteristics of urban or urban agglomerations, but also discussed the relationship between urban development and certain elements or phenomena. This paper presents a multi-threshold and multi-feature extraction method for building land using the optical characteristics of different landforms, based on Landsat remote sensing images from 1984 to 2016. The method selected Automated Water Extraction Index (AWEI), Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI), Soil Extraction Index (SOEI) and Normalized Difference Built-up Index (BUEI) to extract the construction land. It is an example study area of Beijing to extract the construction land in 30 years and to do a examine research. Using the ArcGIS software to calculate, we can get the coordinates of the city center of gravity in Beijing in various years. It can be seen that the center of gravity of built-up area and the movement of the center of gravity in Beijing. The results showed that the construction land in Beijing has an increasing tendency in recent 30 years. The main characteristic of expansion is the way of high-speed outward development. From 1984 to 1999, the center of gravity of the city shifted to the northeast, and from 2000 to 2016 the center of gravity shifted to the southeast. In the further study, we would do a research in the whole area in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei and pay more attention to built-up land expansion prediction.

Patterns in understory woody diversity and soil nitrogen across native- and non-native-urban tropical forests

Treesearch

D.F. Cusack; T.L. McCleery; NO-VALUE

2014-01-01

Urban expansion is accelerating in the tropics, and may promote the spread of introduced plant species into urban-proximate forests. For example, soil disturbance can deplete the naturally high soil nitrogen pools in wet tropical soils, favoring introduced species with nitrogen-fixing capabilities. Also, forest fragmentation and canopy disturbance are likely to favor...

Influence of urban resilience measures in the magnitude and behaviour of energy fluxes in the city of Porto (Portugal) under a climate change scenario.

PubMed

Rafael, S; Martins, H; Sá, E; Carvalho, D; Borrego, C; Lopes, M

2016-10-01

Different urban resilience measures, such as the increase of urban green areas and the application of white roofs, were evaluated with the WRF-SUEWS modelling system. The case study consists of five heat waves occurring in Porto (Portugal) urban area in a future climate scenario. Meteorological forcing and boundary data were downscaled for Porto urban area from the CMIP5 earth system model MPI-ESM, for the Representative Concentration Pathway RCP8.5 scenario. The influence of different resilience measures on the energy balance components was quantified and compared between each other. Results show that the inclusion of green urban areas increases the evaporation and the availability of surface moisture, redirecting the energy to the form of latent heat flux (maximum increase of +200Wm(-2)) rather than to sensible heat. The application of white roofs increases the solar radiation reflection, due to the higher albedo of such surfaces, reducing both sensible and storage heat flux (maximum reductions of -62.8 and -35Wm(-2), respectively). The conjugations of the individual benefits related to each resilience measure shows that this measure is the most effective one in terms of improving the thermal comfort of the urban population, particularly due to the reduction of both sensible and storage heat flux. The obtained results contribute to the knowledge of the surface-atmosphere exchanges and can be of great importance for stakeholders and decision-makers. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Waterbird habitat in California's Central Valley basins under climate, urbanization, and water management scenarios

USGS Publications Warehouse

Matchett, Elliott L.; Fleskes, Joseph

2018-01-01

California's Central Valley provides critical, but threatened habitat and food resources for migrating and wintering waterfowl, shorebirds, and other waterbirds. The Central Valley is comprised of nine basins that were defined by the Central Valley Joint Venture (CVJV) to assist in conservation planning. Basins vary in composition and extent of habitats, which primarily include croplands and wetlands that rely on water supplies shared with other competing human and environmental uses. Changes in climate, urban development, and water supply management are uncertain and could reduce future availability of water supplies supporting waterbird habitats and limit effectiveness of wetland restoration planned by the CVJV to support wintering waterbirds. We modeled 17 plausible scenarios including combinations of three climate projections, three urbanization rates, and five water supply management options to promote agricultural and urban water uses, with and without wetland restoration. Our research examines the reduction in quantity and quality of habitats during the fall migration-wintering period by basin under each scenario, and the efficacy of planned wetland restoration to compensate reductions in flooded areas of wetland habitats. Scenario combinations of projected climate, urbanization, and water supply management options reduced availability of flooded cropland and wetland habitats during fall-winter and degraded the quality of seasonal wetlands (i.e., summer-irrigation for improved forage production), though the extent and frequency of impacts varied by basin. Planned wetland restoration may substantially compensate for scenario-related effects on wetland habitats in each basin. However, results indicate that Colusa, Butte, Sutter, San Joaquin, and Tulare Basins may require additional conservation to support summer-irrigation of seasonal wetlands and winter-flooding of cropland habitats. Still further conservation may be required to provide sufficient areas of flooded seasonal and semi-permanent wetlands in San Joaquin and Tulare Basins during fall-winter. The main objective of this research is to provide decision-support for achieving waterbird conservation goals in the valley and to inform CVJV's regional conservation planning.

Arctic Planning Scenarios: Scenario #2 - Safety and Security Scenario

DTIC Science & Technology

2011-07-01

the case within the security communities (DND, RCMP and CBSA) where the facility expansion programme fell behind the pace of socio -economic growth...became a political issue with many First Nations leaders protesting about the speed of progress not keeping pace with the socio -economic demands of...raised level of socio -political consciousness quickly gravitated across the Inuit bands of NWT and Nunavut. It also drew support from those Southern

Urban growth and landscape connectivity threats assessment at Saguaro National Park, Arizona, USA

USGS Publications Warehouse

Perkl, Ryan; Norman, Laura M.; Mitchell, David; Feller, Mark R.; Smith, Garrett; Wilson, Natalie R.

2018-01-01

Urban and exurban expansion results in habitat and biodiversity loss globally. We hypothesize that a coupled-model approach could connect urban planning for future cities with landscape ecology to consider wildland habitat connectivity. Our work combines urban growth simulations with models of wildlife corridors to examine how species will be impacted by development to test this hypothesis. We leverage a land use change model (SLEUTH) with structural and functional landscape-connectivity modeling techniques to ascertain the spatial extent and locations of connectivity related threats to a national park in southern Arizona, USA, and describe how protected areas might be impacted by urban expansion. Results of projected growth significantly altered structural connectivity (80%) when compared to current (baseline) corridor conditions. Moreover, projected growth impacted functional connectivity differently amongst species, indicating resilience of some species and near-complete displacement of others. We propose that implementing a geospatial-design-based model will allow for a better understanding of the impacts management decisions have on wildlife populations. The application provides the potential to understand both human and environmental impacts of land-system dynamics, critical for long-term sustainability.

The scaling structure of the global road network

PubMed Central

Giometto, Andrea; Shai, Saray; Bertuzzo, Enrico; Mucha, Peter J.; Rinaldo, Andrea

2017-01-01

Because of increasing global urbanization and its immediate consequences, including changes in patterns of food demand, circulation and land use, the next century will witness a major increase in the extent of paved roads built worldwide. To model the effects of this increase, it is crucial to understand whether possible self-organized patterns are inherent in the global road network structure. Here, we use the largest updated database comprising all major roads on the Earth, together with global urban and cropland inventories, to suggest that road length distributions within croplands are indistinguishable from urban ones, once rescaled to account for the difference in mean road length. Such similarity extends to road length distributions within urban or agricultural domains of a given area. We find two distinct regimes for the scaling of the mean road length with the associated area, holding in general at small and at large values of the latter. In suitably large urban and cropland domains, we find that mean and total road lengths increase linearly with their domain area, differently from earlier suggestions. Scaling regimes suggest that simple and universal mechanisms regulate urban and cropland road expansion at the global scale. As such, our findings bear implications for global road infrastructure growth based on land-use change and for planning policies sustaining urban expansions. PMID:29134071

The scaling structure of the global road network.

PubMed

Strano, Emanuele; Giometto, Andrea; Shai, Saray; Bertuzzo, Enrico; Mucha, Peter J; Rinaldo, Andrea

2017-10-01

Because of increasing global urbanization and its immediate consequences, including changes in patterns of food demand, circulation and land use, the next century will witness a major increase in the extent of paved roads built worldwide. To model the effects of this increase, it is crucial to understand whether possible self-organized patterns are inherent in the global road network structure. Here, we use the largest updated database comprising all major roads on the Earth, together with global urban and cropland inventories, to suggest that road length distributions within croplands are indistinguishable from urban ones, once rescaled to account for the difference in mean road length. Such similarity extends to road length distributions within urban or agricultural domains of a given area. We find two distinct regimes for the scaling of the mean road length with the associated area, holding in general at small and at large values of the latter. In suitably large urban and cropland domains, we find that mean and total road lengths increase linearly with their domain area, differently from earlier suggestions. Scaling regimes suggest that simple and universal mechanisms regulate urban and cropland road expansion at the global scale. As such, our findings bear implications for global road infrastructure growth based on land-use change and for planning policies sustaining urban expansions.

Assessment of seismic risk in Tashkent, Uzbekistan and Bishkek, Kyrgyz Republic

USGS Publications Warehouse

Erdik, M.; Rashidov, T.; Safak, E.; Turdukulov, A.

2005-01-01

The impact of earthquakes in urban centers prone to disastrous earthquakes necessitates the analysis of associated risk for rational formulation of contingency plans and mitigation strategies. In urban centers the seismic risk is best quantified and portrayed through the preparation of 'Earthquake damage and Loss Scenarios'. The components of such scenarios are the assessment of the hazard, inventories and the vulnerabilities of elements at risk. For the development of earthquake risk scenario in Tashkent-Uzbekistan and Bishkek-Kyrgyzstan an approach based on spectral displacements is utilized. This paper will present the important features of a comprehensive study, highlight the methodology, discuss the results and provide insights to the future developments. ?? 2005 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

The politics of large infrastructure investment decision-making : the case of the second avenue subway case study.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2013-11-01

Over the past few decades, urbanization and economic growth have intensified the need for more efficient urban and : regional transportation, including the expansion and reorganization of existing transportation networks. Given such : huge investment...

An ex-post evaluation approach to assess the impacts of accomplished urban structure shift on landscape connectivity.

PubMed

Huang, Junlong; He, Jianhua; Liu, Dianfeng; Li, Chun; Qian, Jing

2018-05-01

Many studies have been conducted to evaluate the effects of different urban structures on landscape connectivity, and most of them rely on the comparison approach or ex-ante scenario analysis. However, we still lack an ex-post method to capture the consequences of accomplished urban structure shift (from monocentric to polycentric), which is guided by the land use planning. To fill this gap, we develop an ex-post evaluation approach which integrates counterfactual analysis and landscape graphs. Counterfactual analysis is combined with cellular automata simulation model, to uncover what the city might look like, if it had continued to expand in a monocentric structure; and the landscape graphs enable us to reveal the possible landscape connectivity in actual and counterfactual scenarios. We select Nanjing city as the study area and 4 target species, to delve into the varying impacts of the urban structure shift on different taxonomic groups. Our case study demonstrates that: (1) the impact of urban structure shift is more relevant to the long disperser; (2) the actual landscape (polycentric) would facilitate the bird's dispersal, while (3) forest mammals have higher connectivity in the counterfactual scenario (monocentric), and the possible reasons are discussed. Finally, we demonstrate that the urban structure shift might not necessarily cause the connectivity decline, on condition that the key connectivity providers are identified by integrating ecological network analysis into the land use planning, and well preserved in the shift. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

The Expansion of Education: A Brazilian Case Study.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Plank, David N.

1987-01-01

Analysis of educational expansion in Brazil between 1940 and 1980 indicates that, in most circumstances, enrollment rates were positively related to urbanization, diversification of the occupational structure, and aggregate economic growth. States experiencing heavy in-migration showed a negative effect of migration on enrollment rates during…

Application of an uncertainty analysis approach to strategic environmental assessment for urban planning.

PubMed

Liu, Yi; Chen, Jining; He, Weiqi; Tong, Qingyuan; Li, Wangfeng

2010-04-15

Urban planning has been widely applied as a regulatory measure to guide a city's construction and management. It represents official expectations on future population and economic growth and land use over the urban area. No doubt, significant variations often occur between planning schemes and actual development; in particular in China, the world's largest developing country experiencing rapid urbanization and industrialization. This in turn leads to difficulty in estimating the environmental consequences of the urban plan. Aiming to quantitatively analyze the uncertain environmental impacts of the urban plan's implementation, this article developed an integrated methodology combining a scenario analysis approach and a stochastic simulation technique for strategic environmental assessment (SEA). Based on industrial development scenarios, Monte Carlo sampling is applied to generate all possibilities of the spatial distribution of newly emerged industries. All related environmental consequences can be further estimated given the industrial distributions as input to environmental quality models. By applying a HSY algorithm, environmentally unacceptable urban growth, regarding both economic development and land use spatial layout, can be systematically identified, providing valuable information to urban planners and decision makers. A case study in Dalian Municipality, Northeast China, is used to illustrate applicability of this methodology. The impacts of Urban Development Plan for Dalian Municipality (2003-2020) (UDP) on atmospheric environment are also discussed in this article.

Assessment of stormwater runoff management practices and BMPs under soil sealing: A study case in a peri-urban watershed of the metropolitan area of Rome (Italy).

PubMed

Recanatesi, Fabio; Petroselli, Andrea; Ripa, Maria Nicolina; Leone, Antonio

2017-10-01

By 2006, almost 100,000 km 2 of EU soil (2.3% of the whole territory) had been sealed, with a per capita quota of 200 m 2 of sealed surface for each EU citizen. Italy, in 2016, recorded a soil sealing rate of 2.8% of the entire territory. In this context, the urban expansion which occurred in past decades is considered one of the main causes of the increase in flood frequency and intensity in small catchments, causing both social and financial damage. In the present paper, the positive impact of introducing Best Management Practices (BMPs) at urban scale is assessed, with particular regard to the decreasing of flood prone areas. A suburban watershed of the metropolitan area of Rome has been selected for a study case, as its soil sealing rate can be considered paradigmatic at this scale. Starting from the analysis of rainfall events occurring between 2008 and 2011 which caused millions of euros worth of damage, and using a high resolution data set in a GIS environment, two scenarios, with and without BMP introduction, are evaluated applying a rainfall-runoff model and a bidimensional hydraulic model. From a comparison of the flood maps with and without the introduction of BMPs, it was determined that in 90% of the circumstances the employment of the BMPs would completely remove the hydraulic risk, while in the remaining 10% the BMP would at least reduce the areas subjected to flooding. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

An application of the distributed hydrologic model CASC2D to a tropical montane watershed

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Marsik, Matt; Waylen, Peter

2006-11-01

SummaryIncreased stormflow in the Quebrada Estero watershed (2.5 km 2), in the northwestern Central Valley tectonic depression of Costa Rica, reportedly has caused flooding of the city of San Ramón in recent decades. Although scientifically untested, urban expansion was deemed the cause and remedial measures were recommended by the Programa de Investigación en Desarrollo Humano Sostenible (ProDUS). CASC2D, a physically-based, spatially explicit hydrologic model, was constructed and calibrated to a June 10th 2002 storm that delivered 110.5 mm of precipitation in 4.5 h visibly exceeded the bankfull stage (0.9 m) of the Quebrada flooding portions of San Ramón. The calibrated hydrograph showed a peak discharge 16.68% (2.5 m 3 s -1) higher, an above flood stage duration 20% shorter, and time to peak discharge 11 min later than the same observed discharge hydrograph characteristics. Simulations of changing land cover conditions from 1979 to 1999 showed an increase also in the peak discharge, above flood stage duration, and time to peak discharge. Analysis using a modified location quotient identified increased urbanization in lower portions of the watershed over the time period studied. These results suggest that increased urbanization in the Quebrada Estero watershed have increased flooding peaks, and durations above threshold, confirming the ProDUS report. These results and the CASC2D model offer an easy-to-use, pragmatic planning tool for policymakers in San Ramón to assess future development scenarios and their potential flooding impacts to San Ramón.

Geographically explicit urban land use change scenarios for Mega cities: a case study in Tokyo

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yamagata, Y.; Bagan, H.; Seya, H.; Nakamichi, K.

2010-12-01

In preparation for the IPCC 5th assessment report, the international modeling community is developing four Representative Concentration Paths employing the scenarios developed by four different Integrated Assessment Models. These RCPs will be employed as an input to climate models, such as Earth System Models. In these days, the importance of assessment of not only global but also local (city/zone level) impacts of global change has gradually been recognized, thereby downscaling climate models are one of the urgent problems to be solved. Needless to say, reliable downscaling requires spatially high resolution land use change scenarios. So far, there has been proposed a lot of methods for constructing land use change scenarios with considering economic behavior of human, such as agent-based model (e.g., Parker et al., 2001), and land use transport (LUT) model (e.g., Anas and Liu, 2007). The latter approach in particular has widely been applied to actual urban/transport policy; hence modeling the interaction between them is very important for creating reliable land use change scenarios. However, the LUT models are usually built based on the zones of cities/municipalities whose spatial resolutions are too low to derive sensible parameters of the climate models. Moreover, almost all of the works which attempt to build spatially high resolution LUT model employs very small regions as the study area. The objective of this research is deriving various input parameters to climate models such as population density, fractional green vegetation cover, and anthropogenic heat emission with spatially high resolution land use change scenarios constructed with LUT model. The study area of this research is Tokyo metropolitan area, which is the largest urban area in the world (United Nations., 2010). Firstly, this study employs very high ground resolution zones composed of micro districts around 1km2. Secondly, the research attempt to combine remote sensing techniques and LUT models to derive future distribution of fractional green vegetation cover. The study has created two extreme land-use scenarios: urban concentration (compact city) and dispersion scenarios in order to show possible range of future land use change, and derives the input parameters for the climate models. The authors are planning to open the scenarios and derived parameters to relate researches. Anas, A. and Y. Liu. (2007). A Regional Economy, Land Use, and Transportation Model (REULU-TRAN): Formulation, Algorithm Design, and Testing. Journal of Regional Science, 47, 415-455. Parker, D.C., T. Berger, S.M. Manson, Editors (2001). Agent-Based Models of Land-Use and Land-Cover Change. LUCC Report Series No. 6, (Accessed: 27 AUG. 2009; http://www.globallandproject.org/Documents/LUCC_No_6.pdf) United Nations. (2010). World urbanization prospects: City population.

Carbon footprint associated with four disposal scenarios for urban pruning waste.

PubMed

Araújo, Yuri Rommel Vieira; de Góis, Monijany Lins; Junior, Luiz Moreira Coelho; Carvalho, Monica

2018-01-01

The inadequate disposal of urban pruning residues can cause significant environmental impacts. The objective of the study presented herein was to quantify the carbon footprint and analyze four disposal scenarios for the urban pruning waste of the city of Joao Pessoa (Northeast Brazil). Software SimaPro was utilized for the quantification of the carbon footprint, with the IPCC 2013 GWP 100y impact evaluation method. The end-of-life treatments considered were sanitary landfilling (with and without collection of methane), simple municipal incineration, and reutilization of wood (transformation into briquettes). The results indicated that simple disposal in sanitary landfill generated 136.34 kg CO 2 /t urban pruning waste collected (highest carbon footprint), sanitary landfill with methane collection emitted 113.43 kg CO 2 /t waste, municipal incineration generated 71.31 kg CO 2 /t waste, and reutilization of woody residues was the scenario with the lowest carbon footprint, with 27.82 kg CO 2 /t waste. This study demonstrated that reutilization of biomass, besides being environmentally viable, presents the potential to contribute to the city's environmental quality, including the possibility of being used to obtain carbon credits.

Temporal trend and determinants of river water quality across urbanization gradients in a coastal city, China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhao, W.; Zhu, X.

2015-12-01

Water contamination in rivers embedded in urbanizing areas is increasingly affected by anthropogenic factors. The impacts may vary with location, time and water variables particularly in rapidly growing areas with clear urbanization gradients. Therefore, characterizing the temporal trend and identifying responsible divers to water quality changes in areas with different urbanization intensity could greatly improve our knowledge about human-water interactions. We employed geographically weighted regression (GWR) to interpret the determinants of river water quality changes in four urban development zones, i.e. central urban, suburban, central county and rural areas. Monitoring data of 8 variables- permanganate (CODMn), biochemical oxygen demand (BOD), ammonium (NH3-N), petroleum (oil), volatile phenol (VP), phosphorus (TP), mercury (Hg) and lead (Pb) from 33 stations were collected from 2004, 2008 and 2010. Five determinants were identified: urban land use intensity, environmental policies, industrial zone expansion, land use composition, and gross domestic product (GDP). Relationships between these identified determinants and water quality changes showed great variations due to their different nature and sensitivity. Typically, for zones with higher urbanization intensity located in central cities and central counties, urban land use had positive impacts on river water quality improvement. However, in less urbanized areas, rapid urban expansion indicated rapid river water degradation. Environmental policies had distinct influences on river pollution control in highly-urbanized areas, but led to unexpected negative impacts in areas beyond the management priorities. Industrial activities were the major contributor to heavy metal pollution in suburban areas while boosted N, P decrease in central cities. Our study highlighted the importance of "local" management instead of one-size-fits-all system in mitigating undesirable impacts of urbanization on water environment.

Regional Assessment of Urban Impacts on Landcover and Open Space Finds a Smart Urban Growth Policy Performs Little Better than Business as Usual

PubMed Central

Thorne, James H.; Santos, Maria J.; Bjorkman, Jacquelyn H.

2013-01-01

Assessment of landscape change is critical for attainment of regional sustainability goals. Urban growth assessments are needed because over half the global population now lives in cities, which impact biodiversity, ecosystem structure and ecological processes. Open space protection is needed to preserve these attributes, and provide the resources humans need. The San Francisco Bay Area, California, is challenged to accommodate a population increase of 3.07 million while maintaining the region’s ecosystems and biodiversity. Our analysis of 9275 km2 in the Bay Area links historic trends for three measures: urban growth, protected open space, and landcover types over the last 70 years to future 2050 projections of urban growth and open space. Protected open space totaled 348 km2 (3.7% of the area) in 1940, and expanded to 2221 km2 (20.2%) currently. An additional 1038 km2 of protected open space is targeted (35.1%). Urban area historically increased from 396.5 km2 to 2239 km2 (24.1% of the area). Urban growth during this time mostly occurred at the expense of agricultural landscapes (62.9%) rather than natural vegetation. Smart Growth development has been advanced as a preferred alternative in many planning circles, but we found that it conserved only marginally more open space than Business-as-usual when using an urban growth model to portray policies for future urban growth. Scenarios to 2050 suggest urban development on non-urban lands of 1091, 956, or 179 km2, under Business-as-usual, Smart Growth and Infill policy growth scenarios, respectively. The Smart Growth policy converts 88% of natural lands and agriculture used by Business-as-usual, while Infill used only 40% of those lands. Given the historic rate of urban growth, 0.25%/year, and limited space available, the Infill scenario is recommended. While the data may differ, the use of an historic and future framework to track these three variables can be easily applied to other metropolitan areas. PMID:23755204

Regional assessment of urban impacts on landcover and open space finds a smart urban growth policy performs little better than business as usual.

PubMed

Thorne, James H; Santos, Maria J; Bjorkman, Jacquelyn H

2013-01-01

Assessment of landscape change is critical for attainment of regional sustainability goals. Urban growth assessments are needed because over half the global population now lives in cities, which impact biodiversity, ecosystem structure and ecological processes. Open space protection is needed to preserve these attributes, and provide the resources humans need. The San Francisco Bay Area, California, is challenged to accommodate a population increase of 3.07 million while maintaining the region's ecosystems and biodiversity. Our analysis of 9275 km² in the Bay Area links historic trends for three measures: urban growth, protected open space, and landcover types over the last 70 years to future 2050 projections of urban growth and open space. Protected open space totaled 348 km² (3.7% of the area) in 1940, and expanded to 2221 km² (20.2%) currently. An additional 1038 km² of protected open space is targeted (35.1%). Urban area historically increased from 396.5 km² to 2239 km² (24.1% of the area). Urban growth during this time mostly occurred at the expense of agricultural landscapes (62.9%) rather than natural vegetation. Smart Growth development has been advanced as a preferred alternative in many planning circles, but we found that it conserved only marginally more open space than Business-as-usual when using an urban growth model to portray policies for future urban growth. Scenarios to 2050 suggest urban development on non-urban lands of 1091, 956, or 179 km², under Business-as-usual, Smart Growth and Infill policy growth scenarios, respectively. The Smart Growth policy converts 88% of natural lands and agriculture used by Business-as-usual, while Infill used only 40% of those lands. Given the historic rate of urban growth, 0.25%/year, and limited space available, the Infill scenario is recommended. While the data may differ, the use of an historic and future framework to track these three variables can be easily applied to other metropolitan areas.

Investigating the Sensitivity of Streamflow and Water Quality to Climate Change and Urbanization in 20 U.S. Watersheds

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Johnson, T. E.; Weaver, C. P.; Butcher, J.; Parker, A.

2011-12-01

Watershed modeling was conducted in 20 large (15,000-60,000 km2), U.S. watersheds to address gaps in our knowledge of the sensitivity of U.S. streamflow, nutrient (N and P) and sediment loading to potential future climate change, and methodological challenges associated with integrating existing tools (e.g., climate models, watershed models) and datasets to address these questions. Climate change scenarios are based on dynamically downscaled (50x50 km2) output from four of the GCMs used in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) 4th Assessment Report for the period 2041-2070 archived by the North American Regional Climate Change Assessment Program (NARCCAP). To explore the potential interaction of climate change and urbanization, model simulations also include urban and residential development scenarios for each of the 20 study watersheds. Urban and residential development scenarios were acquired from EPA's national-scale Integrated Climate and Land Use Scenarios (ICLUS) project. Watershed modeling was conducted using the Hydrologic Simulation Program-FORTRAN (HSPF) and Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) models. Here we present a summary of results for 5 of the study watersheds; the Minnesota River, the Susquehanna River, the Apalachicola-Chattahoochee-Flint, the Salt/Verde/San Pedro, and the Willamette River Basins. This set of results provide an overview of the response to climate change in different regions of the U.S., the different sensitivities of different streamflow and water quality endpoints, and illustrate a number of methodological issues including the sensitivities and uncertainties associated with use of different watershed models, approaches for downscaling climate change projections, and interaction between climate change and other forcing factors, specifically urbanization and changes in atmospheric CO2 concentration.

Long-term effects of health factor modification in Milwaukee County.

PubMed

Shi, Lu; van Meijgaard, Jeroen; Fielding, Jonathan E

2013-01-01

We use the UCLA Health Forecasting Tool to forecast the 2011-2050 health trends in Milwaukee County. We first simulate a baseline scenario (S-1) that assumes no health behavior change, and compare this with three simulated intervention scenarios: expansion of Quitline reach to enhance smoking cessation (S-2), an increased penetration of diabetes screening (S-3) and construction of additional recreational facilities (S-4). We compared the disease-free life years (DFLY) gained from each intervention scenario by 2050 on a year-by-year and cumulative basis. Simulation results show that increasing access to recreational facilities achieves the greatest gain in DFLYs for every year from 2011 to 2050. By 2050, the cumulative DFLY gain is 22 393, 5956 and 41 396 for S-2, S-3, and S-4, respectively. The cost-effectiveness ratios for Quitline expansion, diabetes screening, and recreational facility construction are $1802, $1285, and $1322, per DFLY gained, respectively.

Impacts of Combined Cooling, Heating and Power Systems, and Rainwater Harvesting on Water Demand, Carbon Dioxide, and NOx Emissions for Atlanta.

PubMed

James, Jean-Ann; Sung, Sangwoo; Jeong, Hyunju; Broesicke, Osvaldo A; French, Steven P; Li, Duo; Crittenden, John C

2018-01-02

The purpose of this study is to explore the potential water, CO 2 and NO x emission, and cost savings that the deployment of decentralized water and energy technologies within two urban growth scenarios can achieve. We assess the effectiveness of urban growth, technological, and political strategies to reduce these burdens in the 13-county Atlanta metropolitan region. The urban growth between 2005 and 2030 was modeled for a business as usual (BAU) scenario and a more compact growth (MCG) scenario. We considered combined cooling, heating and power (CCHP) systems using microturbines for our decentralized energy technology and rooftop rainwater harvesting and low flow fixtures for the decentralized water technologies. Decentralized water and energy technologies had more of an impact in reducing the CO 2 and NO x emissions and water withdrawal and consumption than an MCG growth scenario (which does not consider energy for transit). Decentralized energy can reduce the CO 2 and NO x emissions by 8% and 63%, respectively. Decentralized energy and water technologies can reduce the water withdrawal and consumption in the MCG scenario by 49% and 50% respectively. Installing CCHP systems on both the existing and new building stocks with a net metering policy could reduce the CO 2 , NO x , and water consumption by 50%, 90%, and 75% respectively.

Towards a framework for geospatial tangible user interfaces in collaborative urban planning

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Maquil, Valérie; Leopold, Ulrich; De Sousa, Luís Moreira; Schwartz, Lou; Tobias, Eric

2018-04-01

The increasing complexity of urban planning projects today requires new approaches to better integrate stakeholders with different professional backgrounds throughout a city. Traditional tools used in urban planning are designed for experts and offer little opportunity for participation and collaborative design. This paper introduces the concept of geospatial tangible user interfaces (GTUI) and reports on the design and implementation as well as the usability of such a GTUI to support stakeholder participation in collaborative urban planning. The proposed system uses physical objects to interact with large digital maps and geospatial data projected onto a tabletop. It is implemented using a PostGIS database, a web map server providing OGC web services, the computer vision framework reacTIVision, a Java-based TUIO client, and GeoTools. We describe how a GTUI has be instantiated and evaluated within the scope of two case studies related to real world collaborative urban planning scenarios. Our results confirm the feasibility of our proposed GTUI solutions to (a) instantiate different urban planning scenarios, (b) support collaboration, and (c) ensure an acceptable usability.

Alternative future analysis for assessing the potential impact of climate change on urban landscape dynamics.

PubMed

He, Chunyang; Zhao, Yuanyuan; Huang, Qingxu; Zhang, Qiaofeng; Zhang, Da

2015-11-01

Assessing the impact of climate change on urban landscape dynamics (ULD) is the foundation for adapting to climate change and maintaining urban landscape sustainability. This paper demonstrates an alternative future analysis by coupling a system dynamics (SD) and a cellular automata (CA) model. The potential impact of different climate change scenarios on ULD from 2009 to 2030 was simulated and evaluated in the Beijing-Tianjin-Tangshan megalopolis cluster area (BTT-MCA). The results suggested that the integrated model, which combines the advantages of the SD and CA model, has the strengths of spatial quantification and flexibility. Meanwhile, the results showed that the influence of climate change would become more severe over time. In 2030, the potential urban area affected by climate change will be 343.60-1260.66 km(2) (5.55 -20.37 % of the total urban area, projected by the no-climate-change-effect scenario). Therefore, the effects of climate change should not be neglected when designing and managing urban landscape. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Towards a framework for geospatial tangible user interfaces in collaborative urban planning

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Maquil, Valérie; Leopold, Ulrich; De Sousa, Luís Moreira; Schwartz, Lou; Tobias, Eric

2018-03-01

The increasing complexity of urban planning projects today requires new approaches to better integrate stakeholders with different professional backgrounds throughout a city. Traditional tools used in urban planning are designed for experts and offer little opportunity for participation and collaborative design. This paper introduces the concept of geospatial tangible user interfaces (GTUI) and reports on the design and implementation as well as the usability of such a GTUI to support stakeholder participation in collaborative urban planning. The proposed system uses physical objects to interact with large digital maps and geospatial data projected onto a tabletop. It is implemented using a PostGIS database, a web map server providing OGC web services, the computer vision framework reacTIVision, a Java-based TUIO client, and GeoTools. We describe how a GTUI has be instantiated and evaluated within the scope of two case studies related to real world collaborative urban planning scenarios. Our results confirm the feasibility of our proposed GTUI solutions to (a) instantiate different urban planning scenarios, (b) support collaboration, and (c) ensure an acceptable usability.

Urbanization and geographic expansion of zoonotic arboviral diseases: mechanisms and potential strategies for prevention.

PubMed

Weaver, Scott C

2013-08-01

Arthropod-borne viruses (arboviruses) mainly infect people via direct spillover from enzootic cycles. However, dengue, chikungunya, and yellow fever viruses have repeatedly initiated urban transmission cycles involving human amplification and peridomestic mosquito vectors to cause major epidemics. Here, I review these urban emergences and potential strategies for their prevention and control. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

[Rural-urban population redistribution between 1970 and 1980 (a micro-regional analysis)].

PubMed

Costa, M A

1982-01-01

Changes in rural-urban population distribution in Brazil from 1970 to 1980 are analyzed using census data. Trends examined include spatial redistribution throughout the country, rapid urbanization, the decline in the size of the rural population in the state of Parana, agricultural expansion in the northern and central-western regions, and the increase of the rural population within metropolitan areas. (summary in ENG)

Urbanisation and human health in China: spatial features and a systemic perspective.

PubMed

Li, Xinhu; Wang, Cuiping; Zhang, Guoqin; Xiao, Lishan; Dixon, Jane

2012-06-01

Current studies have paid little attention to the dynamism in urban spatial expansion and its possible environmental and health effects or to the health effects of rapid urban environmental change at different points along the urbanisation gradient. This study adopts a public health ecology approach to systematically understand the relationship between urbanisation, urban environmental change and human health in China. Remote sensing image analysis, based on night light data at five different time periods in recent decades, was used to determine changes to the overall urban area. Through a review of the evidence on the relationships between environmental health, urbanisation and health, we advance a pathway framework for explaining urban human health ecology. The Spearman rank correlation coefficient was used to measure the correlation between disease prevalence and urbanisation level, adding a further dimension to a systemic understanding of urban health. Urban areas have been increasing spatially, but unevenly, in recent decades, with medium and small cities also expanding rapidly in the past decade. Urbanisation and urban expansion result in changes to land use/coverage change, the urban environment and the residents' lifestyle, which result in human health problems. Regions with the highest urbanisation level were more inclined to have a high prevalence of chronic disease in recent decades. An ecological public health approach provides insights into the multiple types of data which need to be routinely collected if human disease is not to become a barrier to social and economic development.

Estimation of capture zones and drawdown at the Northwest and West Well Fields, Miami-Dade County, Florida, using an unconstrained Monte Carlo analysis: recent (2004) and proposed conditions

USGS Publications Warehouse

Brakefield, Linzy K.; Hughes, Joseph D.; Langevin, Christian D.; Chartier, Kevin

2013-01-01

Travel-time capture zones and drawdown for two production well fields, used for drinking-water supply in Miami-Dade County, southeastern Florida, were delineated by the U.S Geological Survey using an unconstrained Monte Carlo analysis. The well fields, designed to supply a combined total of approximately 250 million gallons of water per day, pump from the highly transmissive Biscayne aquifer in the urban corridor between the Everglades and Biscayne Bay. A transient groundwater flow model was developed and calibrated to field data to ensure an acceptable match between simulated and observed values for aquifer heads and net exchange of water between the aquifer and canals. Steady-state conditions were imposed on the transient model and a post-processing backward particle-tracking approach was implemented. Multiple stochastic realizations of horizontal hydraulic conductivity, conductance of canals, and effective porosity were simulated for steady-state conditions representative of dry, average and wet hydrologic conditions to calculate travel-time capture zones of potential source areas of the well fields. Quarry lakes, formed as a product of rock-mining activities, whose effects have previously not been considered in estimation of capture zones, were represented using high hydraulic-conductivity, high-porosity cells, with the bulk hydraulic conductivity of each cell calculated based on estimates of aquifer hydraulic conductivity, lake depths and aquifer thicknesses. A post-processing adjustment, based on calculated residence times using lake outflows and known lake volumes, was utilized to adjust particle endpoints to account for an estimate of residence-time-based mixing of lakes. Drawdown contours of 0.1 and 0.25 foot were delineated for the dry, average, and wet hydrologic conditions as well. In addition, 95-percent confidence intervals (CIs) were calculated for the capture zones and drawdown contours to delineate a zone of uncertainty about the median estimates. Results of the Monte Carlo simulations indicate particle travel distances at the Northwest Well Field (NWWF) and West Well Field (WWF) are greatest to the west, towards the Everglades. The man-made quarry lakes substantially affect particle travel distances. In general near the NWWF, the capture zones in areas with lakes were smaller in areal extent than capture zones in areas without lakes. It is possible that contamination could reach the well fields quickly, within 10 days in some cases, if it were introduced into lakes nearest to supply wells, with one of the lakes being only approximately 650 feet from the nearest supply well. In addition to estimating drawdown and travel-time capture zones of 10, 30, 100, and 210 days for the NWWF and the WWF under more recent conditions, two proposed scenarios were evaluated with Monte Carlo simulations: the potential hydrologic effects of proposed Everglades groundwater seepage mitigation and quarry-lake expansion. The seepage mitigation scenario included the addition of two proposed anthropogenic features to the model: (1) an impermeable horizontal flow barrier east of the L-31N canal along the western model boundary between the Everglades and the urban areas of Miami-Dade County, and (2) a recharge canal along the Dade-Broward Levee near the NWWF. Capture zones and drawdown for the WWF were substantially affected by the addition of the barrier, which eliminates flow from the western boundary into the active model domain, shifting the predominant capture zone source area from the west more to the north and south. The 95-percent CI for the 210-day capture zone moved slightly in the NWWF as a result of the recharge canal. The lake-expansion scenario incorporated a proposed increase in the number and surface area of lakes by an additional 25 square miles. This scenario represents a 150-percent increase from the 2004 lake surface area near both well fields, but with the majority of increase proposed near the NWWF. The lake-expansion scenario substantially decreased the extent of the 210-day capture zone of the NWWF, which is limited to the lakes nearest the well field under proposed conditions.

Effects of alcohol on automated and controlled driving performances.

PubMed

Berthelon, Catherine; Gineyt, Guy

2014-05-01

Alcohol is the most frequently detected substance in fatal automobile crashes, but its precise mode of action is not always clear. The present study was designed to establish the influence of blood alcohol concentration as a function of the complexity of the scenarios. Road scenarios implying automatic or controlled driving performances were manipulated in order to identify which behavioral parameters were deteriorated. A single blind counterbalanced experiment was conducted on a driving simulator. Sixteen experienced drivers (25.3 ± 2.9 years old, 8 men and 8 women) were tested with 0, 0.3, 0.5, and 0.8 g/l of alcohol. Driving scenarios varied: road tracking, car following, and an urban scenario including events inspired by real accidents. Statistical analyses were performed on driving parameters as a function of alcohol level. Automated driving parameters such as standard deviation of lateral position measured with the road tracking and car following scenarios were impaired by alcohol, notably with the highest dose. More controlled parameters such as response time to braking and number of crashes when confronted with specific events (urban scenario) were less affected by the alcohol level. Performance decrement was greater with driving scenarios involving automated processes than with scenarios involving controlled processes.

A comparative modeling study on non-climatic and climatic risk assessment on Asian Tiger Mosquito (Aedes albopictus)

PubMed Central

Shafapour Tehrany, Mahyat; Solhjouy-fard, Samaneh; Kumar, Lalit

2018-01-01

Aedes albopictus, the Asian Tiger Mosquito, vector of Chikungunya, Dengue Fever and Zika viruses, has proven its hardy adaptability in expansion from its natural Asian, forest edge, tree hole habitat on the back of international trade transportation, re-establishing in temperate urban surrounds, in a range of water receptacles and semi-enclosures of organic matter. Conventional aerial spray mosquito vector controls focus on wetland and stagnant water expanses, proven to miss the protected hollows and crevices favoured by Ae. albopictus. New control or eradication strategies are thus essential, particular in light of potential expansions in the southeastern and eastern USA. Successful regional vector control strategies require risk level analysis. Should strategies prioritize regions with non-climatic or climatic suitability parameters for Ae. albopictus? Our study used current Ae. albopictus distribution data to develop two independent models: (i) regions with suitable non-climatic factors, and (ii) regions with suitable climate for Ae. albopictus in southeastern USA. Non-climatic model processing used Evidential Belief Function (EBF), together with six geographical conditioning factors (raster data layers), to establish the probability index. Validation of the analysis results was estimated with area under the curve (AUC) using Ae. albopictus presence data. Climatic modeling was based on two General Circulation Models (GCMs), Miroc3.2 and CSIRO-MK30 running the RCP 8.5 scenario in MaxEnt software. EBF non-climatic model results achieved a 0.70 prediction rate and 0.73 success rate, confirming suitability of the study site regions for Ae. albopictus establishment. The climatic model results showed the best-fit model comprised Coldest Quarter Mean Temp, Precipitation of Wettest Quarter and Driest Quarter Precipitation factors with mean AUC value of 0.86. Both GCMs showed that the whole study site is highly suitable and will remain suitable climatically, according to the prediction for 2055, for Ae. albopictus expansion. PMID:29576954

A comparative modeling study on non-climatic and climatic risk assessment on Asian Tiger Mosquito (Aedes albopictus).

PubMed

Shabani, Farzin; Shafapour Tehrany, Mahyat; Solhjouy-Fard, Samaneh; Kumar, Lalit

2018-01-01

Aedes albopictus , the Asian Tiger Mosquito, vector of Chikungunya, Dengue Fever and Zika viruses, has proven its hardy adaptability in expansion from its natural Asian, forest edge, tree hole habitat on the back of international trade transportation, re-establishing in temperate urban surrounds, in a range of water receptacles and semi-enclosures of organic matter. Conventional aerial spray mosquito vector controls focus on wetland and stagnant water expanses, proven to miss the protected hollows and crevices favoured by Ae. albopictus. New control or eradication strategies are thus essential, particular in light of potential expansions in the southeastern and eastern USA. Successful regional vector control strategies require risk level analysis. Should strategies prioritize regions with non-climatic or climatic suitability parameters for Ae. albopictus ? Our study used current Ae. albopictus distribution data to develop two independent models: (i) regions with suitable non-climatic factors, and (ii) regions with suitable climate for Ae. albopictus in southeastern USA. Non-climatic model processing used Evidential Belief Function (EBF), together with six geographical conditioning factors (raster data layers), to establish the probability index. Validation of the analysis results was estimated with area under the curve (AUC) using Ae. albopictus presence data. Climatic modeling was based on two General Circulation Models (GCMs), Miroc3.2 and CSIRO-MK30 running the RCP 8.5 scenario in MaxEnt software. EBF non-climatic model results achieved a 0.70 prediction rate and 0.73 success rate, confirming suitability of the study site regions for Ae. albopictus establishment. The climatic model results showed the best-fit model comprised Coldest Quarter Mean Temp, Precipitation of Wettest Quarter and Driest Quarter Precipitation factors with mean AUC value of 0.86. Both GCMs showed that the whole study site is highly suitable and will remain suitable climatically, according to the prediction for 2055, for Ae. albopictus expansion.

Socio-economic and ecological transformations of the peri-urban region of Gurgaon: an analysis of the trickle-down effect in the post globalization era

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yadav, A.; Punia, M.

2014-11-01

Economic processes are a manifestation of dynamic complex interdependent array of factors which involves resources, technology and an acting innovative human mind. Production, growth and development are the processes which has vast number of complex drivers, determinants and factors. Innovation, research, diffusion and dissemination are vital instrument of the economic processes of production, which are part of education. Whereas ecological transformations can be corroborated and analyzed by integrating remote sensing based information related to expansion of built-up area beyond city boundaries, extending to peripheries. City reflect economic, environmental, technological and social processes in their change, yet all are in turn profoundly driven by the urban spatial expansion. Metropolitan cities reflects expansion of existing urban and peri-urban areas with a significant socio-ecological transformation in terms of employment, education, and work force participation and land use changes. From the point of view of New Economic Geography (NEG) Theory 2009, the growth dynamic of metros is influenced by their proximity and dependence to a metropolis and the probable spillover effect. Entry point of discussion is the change in production of space in the post globalization era. It attempts to understand city morphology by using remote sensing datasets of LISS IV, IRS-P6 of 5.8 m spatial resolution for 2008 and 2013 and used Gurgaon Municipal Corporation's (GMC) ward boundary to represent socio-political meaning of this expansion and ways of life within the suburb. To understand how city works, detailed analysis related occupational structure, education and informality of ward 31 of Gurgaon and two villages namely Behlpa, Fazalwas and ward 11 of Nuh ( Mewat) along with the village Gabsanpur is attempted as the spatial units of study.

Life cycle assessment of forecasting scenarios for urban water management: A first implementation of the WaLA model on Paris suburban area.

PubMed

Loubet, Philippe; Roux, Philippe; Guérin-Schneider, Laetitia; Bellon-Maurel, Véronique

2016-03-01

A framework and an associated modeling tool to perform life cycle assessment (LCA) of urban water system, namely the WaLA model, has been recently developed. In this paper, the WaLA model is applied to a real case study: the urban water system of the Paris suburban area, in France. It aims to verify the capacity of the model to provide environmental insights to stakeholder's issues related to future trends influencing the system (e.g., evolution of water demand, increasing water scarcity) or policy responses (e.g., choices of water resources and technologies). This is achieved by evaluating a baseline scenario for 2012 and several forecasting scenarios for 2022 and 2050. The scenarios are designed through the modeling tool WaLA, which is implemented in Simulink/Matlab: it combines components representing the different technologies, users and resources of the UWS. The life cycle inventories of the technologies and users components include water quantity and quality changes, specific operation (electricity, chemicals) and infrastructures data (construction materials). The methods selected for the LCIA are midpoint ILCD, midpoint water deprivation impacts at the sub-river basin scale, and endpoint Impact 2002+. The results of the baseline scenario show that wastewater treatment plants have the highest impacts compared to drinking water production and distribution, as traditionally encountered in LCA of UWS. The results of the forecasting scenarios show important changes in water deprivation impacts due to water management choices or effects of climate change. They also enable to identify tradeoffs with other impact categories and to compare several scenarios. It suggests the capacity of the model to deliver information for decision making about future policies. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Climate change and sugarcane expansion increase Hantavirus infection risk.

PubMed

Prist, Paula Ribeiro; Uriarte, María; Fernandes, Katia; Metzger, Jean Paul

2017-07-01

Hantavirus Cardiopulmonary Syndrome (HCPS) is a disease caused by Hantavirus, which is highly virulent for humans. High temperatures and conversion of native vegetation to agriculture, particularly sugarcane cultivation can alter abundance of rodent generalist species that serve as the principal reservoir host for HCPS, but our understanding of the compound effects of land use and climate on HCPS incidence remains limited, particularly in tropical regions. Here we rely on a Bayesian model to fill this research gap and to predict the effects of sugarcane expansion and expected changes in temperature on Hantavirus infection risk in the state of São Paulo, Brazil. The sugarcane expansion scenario was based on historical data between 2000 and 2010 combined with an agro-environment zoning guideline for the sugar and ethanol industry. Future evolution of temperature anomalies was derived using 32 general circulation models from scenarios RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 (Representative greenhouse gases Concentration Pathways adopted by IPCC). Currently, the state of São Paulo has an average Hantavirus risk of 1.3%, with 6% of the 645 municipalities of the state being classified as high risk (HCPS risk ≥ 5%). Our results indicate that sugarcane expansion alone will increase average HCPS risk to 1.5%, placing 20% more people at HCPS risk. Temperature anomalies alone increase HCPS risk even more (1.6% for RCP4.5 and 1.7%, for RCP8.5), and place 31% and 34% more people at risk. Combined sugarcane and temperature increases led to the same predictions as scenarios that only included temperature. Our results demonstrate that climate change effects are likely to be more severe than those from sugarcane expansion. Forecasting disease is critical for the timely and efficient planning of operational control programs that can address the expected effects of sugarcane expansion and climate change on HCPS infection risk. The predicted spatial location of HCPS infection risks obtained here can be used to prioritize management actions and develop educational campaigns.

Climate change and sugarcane expansion increase Hantavirus infection risk

PubMed Central

Uriarte, María; Fernandes, Katia; Metzger, Jean Paul

2017-01-01

Hantavirus Cardiopulmonary Syndrome (HCPS) is a disease caused by Hantavirus, which is highly virulent for humans. High temperatures and conversion of native vegetation to agriculture, particularly sugarcane cultivation can alter abundance of rodent generalist species that serve as the principal reservoir host for HCPS, but our understanding of the compound effects of land use and climate on HCPS incidence remains limited, particularly in tropical regions. Here we rely on a Bayesian model to fill this research gap and to predict the effects of sugarcane expansion and expected changes in temperature on Hantavirus infection risk in the state of São Paulo, Brazil. The sugarcane expansion scenario was based on historical data between 2000 and 2010 combined with an agro-environment zoning guideline for the sugar and ethanol industry. Future evolution of temperature anomalies was derived using 32 general circulation models from scenarios RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 (Representative greenhouse gases Concentration Pathways adopted by IPCC). Currently, the state of São Paulo has an average Hantavirus risk of 1.3%, with 6% of the 645 municipalities of the state being classified as high risk (HCPS risk ≥ 5%). Our results indicate that sugarcane expansion alone will increase average HCPS risk to 1.5%, placing 20% more people at HCPS risk. Temperature anomalies alone increase HCPS risk even more (1.6% for RCP4.5 and 1.7%, for RCP8.5), and place 31% and 34% more people at risk. Combined sugarcane and temperature increases led to the same predictions as scenarios that only included temperature. Our results demonstrate that climate change effects are likely to be more severe than those from sugarcane expansion. Forecasting disease is critical for the timely and efficient planning of operational control programs that can address the expected effects of sugarcane expansion and climate change on HCPS infection risk. The predicted spatial location of HCPS infection risks obtained here can be used to prioritize management actions and develop educational campaigns. PMID:28727744

A decision support tool for sustainable planning of urban water systems: presenting the Dynamic Urban Water Simulation Model.

PubMed

Willuweit, Lars; O'Sullivan, John J

2013-12-15

Population growth, urbanisation and climate change represent significant pressures on urban water resources, requiring water managers to consider a wider array of management options that account for economic, social and environmental factors. The Dynamic Urban Water Simulation Model (DUWSiM) developed in this study links urban water balance concepts with the land use dynamics model MOLAND and the climate model LARS-WG, providing a platform for long term planning of urban water supply and water demand by analysing the effects of urbanisation scenarios and climatic changes on the urban water cycle. Based on potential urbanisation scenarios and their effects on a city's water cycle, DUWSiM provides the functionality for assessing the feasibility of centralised and decentralised water supply and water demand management options based on forecasted water demand, stormwater and wastewater generation, whole life cost and energy and potential for water recycling. DUWSiM has been tested using data from Dublin, the capital of Ireland, and it has been shown that the model is able to satisfactorily predict water demand and stormwater runoff. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Evaluating land-use change scenarios for the Puget Sound Basin, Washington, within the ecosystem recovery target model-based framework

USGS Publications Warehouse

Villarreal, Miguel; Labiosa, Bill; Aiello, Danielle

2017-05-23

The Puget Sound Basin, Washington, has experienced rapid urban growth in recent decades, with varying impacts to local ecosystems and natural resources. To plan for future growth, land managers often use scenarios to assess how the pattern and volume of growth may affect natural resources. Using three different land-management scenarios for the years 2000–2060, we assessed various spatial patterns of urban growth relative to maps depicting a model-based characterization of the ecological integrity and recent development pressure of individual land parcels. The three scenarios depict future trajectories of land-use change under alternative management strategies—status quo, managed growth, and unconstrained growth. The resulting analysis offers a preliminary assessment of how future growth patterns in the Puget Sound Basin may impact land targeted for conservation and how short-term metrics of land-development pressure compare to longer term growth projections.

Long-term Strategic Planning for a Resilient Metro Colombo: An Economic Case for Wetland Conservation and Management

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rozenberg, J.

2015-12-01

Colombo faces recurrent floods that threaten its long-term economic development. Its urban wetlands have been identified by local agencies as a critical component of its flood reduction system, but they have declined rapidly in recent years due to continuous infilling, unmanaged land development and dredging to create lakes. In collaboration with government agencies, NGOs and local universities, the World Bank has carried out a Robust Decision Making analysis to examine the value of Colombo urban wetlands, both in the short-term and long-term, and identify what are the most viable strategies available to increase the city's flood resilience in an unclear future (in terms of climate change and patterns of urban development). This has involved the use of numerous hydrological and socio-economic scenarios as well as the evaluation of some wetlands benefits, like ecosystem services, wastewater treatment, or recreational services. The analysis has determined that if all urban wetlands across the Colombo catchment were lost, in some scenarios the metropolitan area would have to cope with an annual average flood loss of approximately 1% of Colombo GDP in the near future. For long-term strategies, trade-offs between urban development, lake creation and wetland conservation were analyzed and it was concluded that an active management of urban wetlands was the lowest regret option. Finally, the analysis also revealed that in the future, with climate change and fast urban development, wetlands will not be sufficient to protect Colombo against severe floods. Pro-active urban planning and land-use management are therefore necessary, both to protect existing wetlands and to reduce future exposure. The use of many different scenarios, the consideration of several policy options, and the open participatory process ensured policy-makers' buy-in and lead to the decision to actively protect urban wetlands in Colombo.

Air-quality in the mid-21st century for the city of Paris under two climate scenarios; from regional to local scale

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Markakis, K.; Valari, M.; Colette, A.; Sanchez, O.; Perrussel, O.; Honore, C.; Vautard, R.; Klimont, Z.; Rao, S.

2014-01-01

Ozone and PM2.5 concentrations over the city of Paris are modeled with the CHIMERE air-quality model at 4 km × 4 km horizontal resolution for two future emission scenarios. High-resolution (1 km × 1 km) emission projection until 2020 for the greater Paris region is developed by local experts (AIRPARIF) and is further extended to year 2050 based on regional scale emission projections developed by the Global Energy Assessment. Model evaluation is performed based on a 10 yr control simulation. Ozone is in very good agreement with measurements while PM2.5 is underestimated by 20% over the urban area mainly due to a large wet bias in wintertime precipitation. A significant increase of maximum ozone relative to present time levels over Paris is modeled under the "business as usual" scenario (+7 ppb) while a more optimistic mitigation scenario leads to moderate ozone decrease (-3.5 ppb) in year 2050. These results are substantially different to previous regional scale projections where 2050 ozone is found to decrease under both future scenarios. A sensitivity analysis showed that this difference is due to the fact that ozone formation over Paris at the current, urban scale study, is driven by VOC-limited chemistry, whereas at the regional scale ozone formation occurs under NOx-sensitive conditions. This explains why the sharp NOx reductions implemented in the future scenarios have a different effect on ozone projections at different scales. In rural areas projections at both scales yield similar results showing that the longer time-scale processes of emission transport and ozone formation are less sensitive to model resolution. PM2.5 concentrations decrease by 78% and 89% under "business as usual" and "mitigation" scenarios respectively compared to present time period. The reduction is much more prominent over the urban part of the domain due to the effective reductions of road transport and residential emissions resulting in the smoothing of the large urban increment modelled in the control simulation.

Air quality in the mid-21st century for the city of Paris under two climate scenarios; from the regional to local scale

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Markakis, K.; Valari, M.; Colette, A.; Sanchez, O.; Perrussel, O.; Honore, C.; Vautard, R.; Klimont, Z.; Rao, S.

2014-07-01

Ozone and PM2.5 concentrations over the city of Paris are modeled with the CHIMERE air-quality model at 4 km × 4 km horizontal resolution for two future emission scenarios. A high-resolution (1 km × 1 km) emission projection until 2020 for the greater Paris region is developed by local experts (AIRPARIF) and is further extended to year 2050 based on regional-scale emission projections developed by the Global Energy Assessment. Model evaluation is performed based on a 10-year control simulation. Ozone is in very good agreement with measurements while PM2.5 is underestimated by 20% over the urban area mainly due to a large wet bias in wintertime precipitation. A significant increase of maximum ozone relative to present-day levels over Paris is modeled under the "business-as-usual" scenario (+7 ppb) while a more optimistic "mitigation" scenario leads to a moderate ozone decrease (-3.5 ppb) in year 2050. These results are substantially different to previous regional-scale projections where 2050 ozone is found to decrease under both future scenarios. A sensitivity analysis showed that this difference is due to the fact that ozone formation over Paris at the current urban-scale study is driven by volatile organic compound (VOC)-limited chemistry, whereas at the regional-scale ozone formation occurs under NOx-sensitive conditions. This explains why the sharp NOx reductions implemented in the future scenarios have a different effect on ozone projections at different scales. In rural areas, projections at both scales yield similar results showing that the longer timescale processes of emission transport and ozone formation are less sensitive to model resolution. PM2.5 concentrations decrease by 78% and 89% under business-as-usual and mitigation scenarios, respectively, compared to the present-day period. The reduction is much more prominent over the urban part of the domain due to the effective reductions of road transport and residential emissions resulting in the smoothing of the large urban increment modeled in the control simulation.

Mapping impervious surfaces using object-oriented classification in a semiarid urban region

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Mapping the expansion of impervious surfaces in urbanizing areas is important for monitoring and understanding the hydrologic impacts of land development. The most common approach using spectral vegetation indices, however, is difficult in arid and semiarid environments where vegetation is sparse an...

Impacts of urbanization on river flow frequency: A controlled experimental modeling-based evaluation approach

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Changes in land use are likely to cause a non-linear response in watershed hydrology. Specifically, small increases in urban expansion may greatly increase surface runoff while decreasing infiltration, impacting aquifer recharge and changing streamflow regimes. Quantifying the effects of urbanizatio...

Vulnerability of the Metropolitan District of Quito's Water Resources in the face of Climatic and Anthropogenic Uncertainties

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Depsky, N. J.; Flores-Lopez, F.

2014-12-01

Earlier this year the Stockholm Environment Institute (SEI) concluded a vulnerability analysis for the Metropolitan District of Quito (DMQ) in Ecuador. Vulnerability assessments were done for five sectors in the region: water resources, public health, agriculture, ecosystems and forest fires. This abstract focuses specifically on the vulnerability of the DMQ's water resources to climatic and anthropogenic uncertainties. This analysis focused on vulnerability of potable water supply for the city of Quito, as well as industrial and agricultural water needs. Current and future vulnerability was assessed in the face of a number of scenarios of climatic and non-climatic uncertainties. The assessment used an integrated water resources model developed by Quito's National Polytechnic University for the surrounding Guayllabamba river basin. The model was built using the Water Evaluation and Planning (WEAP) software, and encompasses the urban, rural/agricultural, and industrial demands throughout the basin, linking them with existing surface and ground-water supplies. Five future scenarios were constructed in the WEAP basin model out the year 2050 in order to assess their effects: Urban population growth (~70% by 2050). Urban population growth + rising mean air temperatures (~+2°C by 2050). Urban population growth + rising temperatures + drought (recurring 3-year drought cycles built into the projection) Urban population growth + rising temperatures + conversion of 'paramo' alpine tundra ecosystem into cultivated land. (WEAP allows the user to define various types of land cover extent throughout the basin, along with their unique physical characteristics to simulate rainfall-runoff. Conversion of 'paramo' land cover to agriculture was evaluated to see potential effects it may have on the system's hydrology) Urban population growth + rising temperatures + drought + conversion of 'paramos' Coverage of demands in the model was used as the primary vulnerability metric, with urban demands experiencing supply shortages of up to 20-25% under the most stressful scenarios, a shortage which is dampened by significantly increased groundwater pumping. Rural and industrial demands suffer much more severe shortages, with nearly all demands going unmet in a number of scenarios.

Chloroplast microsatellites reveal colonization and metapopulation dynamics in the Canary Island pine

PubMed Central

Navascués, Miguel; Vaxevanidou, Zafeiro; González-Martínez, Santiago C; Climent, José; Gil, Luis; Emerson, Brent C

2006-01-01

Chloroplast microsatellites are becoming increasingly popular markers for population genetic studies in plants, but there has been little focus on their potential for demographic inference. In this work the utility of chloroplast microsatellites for the study of population expansions was explored. First, we investigated the power of mismatch distribution analysis and the FS test with coalescent simulations of different demographic scenarios. We then applied those methods to empirical data obtained for the Canary Island pine (Pinus canariensis). The results of the simulations showed that chloroplast microsatellites are sensitive to sudden population growth. The power of the FS test and accuracy of demographic parameter estimates, such as the time of expansion, were reduced proportionally to the level of homoplasy within the data. The analysis of Canary Island pine chloroplast microsatellite data indicated population expansions for almost all sample localities. Demographic expansions at the island level can be explained by the colonisation of the archipelago by the pine, while population expansions of different ages in different localities within an island appear to be the result of local extinctions and recolonisation dynamics. Comparable mitochondrial DNA sequence data from a parasite of P. canariensis, the weevil Brachyderes rugatus, supports this scenario, suggesting a key role for volcanism in the evolution of pine forest communities in the Canary Islands. PMID:16911194

Drought affects abortion of reproductive organs by exacerbating developmentally driven processes via expansive growth and hydraulics.

PubMed

Turc, Olivier; Tardieu, François

2018-06-06

Abortion of reproductive organs is a major limiting factor of yield under water deficit, but is also a trait selected for by evolutionary processes. The youngest reproductive organs must be prone to abortion so older organs can finish their development in case of limited resources. Water deficit increases natural abortion via two developmentally driven processes, namely a signal from the first fertilized ovaries and a simultaneous arrest of the expansive growth of all ovaries at a precise stage. In maize (Zea mays) subjected to water deficits typically encountered in dryland agriculture, these developmental mechanisms account for 90% of drought-associated abortion and are irreversible 3 d after silk emergence. Consistently, transcripts and enzyme activities suggest that the molecular events associated with abortion affect expansive growth in silks whereas ovaries maintain a favourable carbon status. Abortion due to carbon starvation is only observed for severe drought scenarios occurring after silking. Both kinetic and genetic evidence indicates that vegetative and reproductive structures share a partly common hydraulic control of expansive growth. Hence, the control of expansive growth of reproductive structures probably has a prominent effect on abortion for mild water deficits occurring at flowering time, while carbon starvation dominates in severe post-flowering drought scenarios.

Geospatial Tools for Prevention of Urban Floods Case Study: River of EL Maleh (city of Mohammedia - Morocco)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chaabane, M. S.; Abouali, N.; Boumeaza, T.; Zahouily, M.

2017-11-01

Today, the prevention and the risk management occupy an important part of public policy activities and are considered as major components in the process of sustainable development of territories. Due to the expansion of IT processes, in particular the geomatics sciences, decision-makers are increasingly requesting for digital tools before, during and after the risks of natural disasters. Both, the geographic information system (GIS) and the remote sensing are considered as geospatial and fundamental tools which help to understand the evolution of risks, to analyze their temporality and to make the right decisions. The historic events (on 1996, 2002 and 2010) which struck the city of Mohammedia and having caused the consequent damage to vital infrastructure and private property, require a thorough and rational analyze to benefit from it and well manage the floods phenomena. This article present i) the contribution of the geospatial tools for the floods simulation of Oued of el Maleh city at various return periods. These tools allow the demarcation of flood-risk areas and so to make floods simulations in several scenarios (decadal flood, 20-year flood, 50-year flood, 100-year flood, 500-year flood & also millennial flood) and besides (ii) present a synthesis map combining the territorial stakes superposed on the flood scenarios at different periods of return.

Projected land-use change impacts on ecosystem services in the United States

PubMed Central

Lawler, Joshua J.; Lewis, David J.; Nelson, Erik; Plantinga, Andrew J.; Polasky, Stephen; Withey, John C.; Helmers, David P.; Martinuzzi, Sebastián; Pennington, Derric; Radeloff, Volker C.

2014-01-01

Providing food, timber, energy, housing, and other goods and services, while maintaining ecosystem functions and biodiversity that underpin their sustainable supply, is one of the great challenges of our time. Understanding the drivers of land-use change and how policies can alter land-use change will be critical to meeting this challenge. Here we project land-use change in the contiguous United States to 2051 under two plausible baseline trajectories of economic conditions to illustrate how differences in underlying market forces can have large impacts on land-use with cascading effects on ecosystem services and wildlife habitat. We project a large increase in croplands (28.2 million ha) under a scenario with high crop demand mirroring conditions starting in 2007, compared with a loss of cropland (11.2 million ha) mirroring conditions in the 1990s. Projected land-use changes result in increases in carbon storage, timber production, food production from increased yields, and >10% decreases in habitat for 25% of modeled species. We also analyze policy alternatives designed to encourage forest cover and natural landscapes and reduce urban expansion. Although these policy scenarios modify baseline land-use patterns, they do not reverse powerful underlying trends. Policy interventions need to be aggressive to significantly alter underlying land-use change trends and shift the trajectory of ecosystem service provision. PMID:24799685

Learning from Preservice Teachers' Thoughts about Teaching in Urban Schools: Implications for Teacher Educators

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Bauml, Michelle; Castro, Antonio J.; Field, Sherry L.; Morowski, Deborah L.

2016-01-01

Preparing new teachers to work in urban schools has become a priority for many teacher education programs. This study explored 20 preservice teachers' responses to a scenario about working in an urban school as a beginning teacher. Specific attention was placed on what participants believed were key challenges and concerns. Findings indicated that…

Power law expansion of the early universe for a V (a) = kan potential

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Freitas, Augusto S.

2018-01-01

In a recent paper, He, Gao and Cai [Phys. Rev. D 89, 083510 (2014)], found a rigorous proof, based on analytical solutions of the Wheeler-DeWitt (WDWE) equation, of the spontaneous creation of the universe from nothing. The solutions were obtained from a classical potential V = ka2, where a is the scale factor. In this paper, we present a complementary (to that of He, Gao and Cai) solution to the WDWE equation with V = kan. I have found an exponential expansion of the true vacuum bubble for all scenarios. In all scenarios, we found a power law behavior of the scale factor result which is in agreement with another studies.

Determining land use changes by radar-optic fused images and monitoring its environmental impacts in Edremit region of western Turkey.

PubMed

Balik Sanli, Fusun; Kurucu, Yusuf; Esetlili, Mustafa Tolga

2009-04-01

Rapid and unplanned urbanization and industrialization are the main reasons of environmental problems. If urban growth is not based on resource sustainability criteria and urban plans are not applied, natural and human resources are damaged dramatically. In this study, land use change and urban expansion in Edremit region of Turkey is determined by means of remote sensing techniques between 1971 and 2002. To improve the accuracy of land use/cover maps, the contribution of SAR images to optic images in defining land cover types was investigated. To determine the situation of land use/cover types in 2002 accurately, Landsat-5 images and Radarsat-1 images were fused, and the land use/cover types were defined from the fused images. Comparisons with the ground truth reveal that land use maps generated using the fuse technique are improved about 6% with an accuracy of 81.20%. To define land use types and urban expansion, screen digitizing and classification methods were used. The results of the study indicate that the urban areas have been increased 1,826 ha across the agricultural fields which are in land use capability classes of I and II, and significant environmental changes such as land degradation and degeneration of ground water quality occurred.

Evaluating the anthropogenic impacts on fluvial flood risks in a coastal mega-city during its transitional economy (1979-2009): the interaction between land subsidence, urbanization and structural measures

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yu, Dapeng; Yin, Jie

2014-05-01

Flood risk in a specific geographical location is a function of the interaction between various natural (e.g. rainfall, sea-level rise) and anthropogenic processes (e.g. land subsidence and urbanization). These processes, whether a driver or an alleviating factor, often encompass a large degree of spatial and temporal variability. Looking at a specific process in isolation is likely to provide an incomplete picture of the risks. This paper describes a novel approach to the evaluation of anthropogenic impacts on flood risks in coastal mega-cities by incorporating three anthropogenic variables (land subsidence, urbanization and flood defence) within a scenario-based framework where numerical modelling was undertaken to quantify the risks. The evolving risks at four time points (1979, 1990, 2000 and 2009) were assessed for the Huangpu River floodplain where the City of Shanghai is located. Distributed data of land subsidence rate, urbanization rate and flood defence heights were obtained. Scenarios were designed by representing the rate of land subsidence and flood defence height through the modification of DEM. Effect of urbanization is represented by a roughness parameter in the model simulations. A 2D hydrodynamic model (FloodMap-Inertial) was used to estimate the flood risks associated with each scenario. Flood events with various return periods (10-, 100- and 1000-year) were designed based on a one in 50 year flood event occurred in Shanghai in August 1997. Results demonstrate the individual as well as the combined impacts of the three anthropogenic factors on the changing fluvial flood risks in the Huangpu River basin over the last three decades during the city's transitional economy (1979-2009). Land subsidence and urbanization were found to lead to proportionate but non-linear impact on flood risks due to their complex spatial and temporal interaction. The impacts and their sensitivity are the function of the rate & spatial distribution of each evolving factor. They also manifest differently in floods of different magnitude. While the pattern of response to individual anthropogenic variables is largely expected, the combined impacts demonstrate greater spatial and temporal variation. Flood defences offer considerable benefits in reducing the total inundated areas in the Huangpu River basin over the periods considered, for all magnitude floods. This, to a large extent, alleviates the adverse impacts arising from land subsidence and urbanization. However, even with an enclosed and completed defence system in 2009, extensive flood inundation is still expected for a 10-year event, albeit largely restricted to the upstream of the river where urban settlements are limited. The scenario-based approach described herein could be adopted for applications in other urbanized and subsided coastal floodplains, especially in places where the rate of land subsidence is still accelerating, urbanization is still undergoing and the local sea level keeps rising. Risk scenarios that encompass probable future anthropogenic projections may assist decision makers and other concerned stakeholders in better understanding the underlying drivers of changing flood risks, and thus help to design proper adaptation options for sustainable flood risk management and urban planning.

Exploring critical pathways for urban water management to identify robust strategies under deep uncertainties.

PubMed

Urich, Christian; Rauch, Wolfgang

2014-12-01

Long-term projections for key drivers needed in urban water infrastructure planning such as climate change, population growth, and socio-economic changes are deeply uncertain. Traditional planning approaches heavily rely on these projections, which, if a projection stays unfulfilled, can lead to problematic infrastructure decisions causing high operational costs and/or lock-in effects. New approaches based on exploratory modelling take a fundamentally different view. Aim of these is, to identify an adaptation strategy that performs well under many future scenarios, instead of optimising a strategy for a handful. However, a modelling tool to support strategic planning to test the implication of adaptation strategies under deeply uncertain conditions for urban water management does not exist yet. This paper presents a first step towards a new generation of such strategic planning tools, by combing innovative modelling tools, which coevolve the urban environment and urban water infrastructure under many different future scenarios, with robust decision making. The developed approach is applied to the city of Innsbruck, Austria, which is spatially explicitly evolved 20 years into the future under 1000 scenarios to test the robustness of different adaptation strategies. Key findings of this paper show that: (1) Such an approach can be used to successfully identify parameter ranges of key drivers in which a desired performance criterion is not fulfilled, which is an important indicator for the robustness of an adaptation strategy; and (2) Analysis of the rich dataset gives new insights into the adaptive responses of agents to key drivers in the urban system by modifying a strategy. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Capybaras and ticks in the urban areas of Uberlândia, Minas Gerais, Brazil: ecological aspects for the epidemiology of tick-borne diseases.

PubMed

Queirogas, V L; Del Claro, K; Nascimento, A R T; Szabó, M P J

2012-05-01

In Brazil capybara, the biggest existing rodent species, and associated tick species, Amblyomma cajennense and Amblyomma dubitatum, are undergoing an unplanned host and parasite population expansion in both urban and rural areas. However, scientific information about such issue, particularly in urban areas, is scanty. Such rodent and ticks are associated in some municipalities, particularly in southeastern Brazil, with the transmission of the highly lethal Rickettsia rickettsia caused spotted-fever. In this study ecological aspects related to the establishment and expansion of capybaras and ticks in urban areas of Uberlândia, Minas Gerais State, Brazil were evaluated. For this purpose, capybara and tick abundance in four urban areas and an ecological reserve was determined. Abundance of capybaras varied between areas and over the sampling period and these differences were related to human activities. A positive correlation was found between capybara and tick abundance, however, the tick species had an uneven distribution within the municipality and environmental factors rather than host availability were blamed for such. On the whole these observations show that capybara populations in urban areas are associated to high environmental infestation of ticks and the increased risk of bites and of pathogen transmission to humans. At the same time the uneven distribution of tick species might implicate in an unequal risk of tick-borne diseases within the same urban area.

Changing demographics affecting sprawl

Treesearch

John F. Dwyer; Susan I. Stewart

1999-01-01

Demographic changes including population growth, racial/ethnic diversity, aging, expansion of urban areas, and migration to rural areas can bring significant population increases in particular areas that may encourage sprawl. Areas where the pressures for sprawl are likely to be the greatest include the periphery of urban areas, popular retirement destinations, places...

Urban land expansion in Quanzhou City, China, 1995-2010

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

With its phenomenal development in recent decades, urbanization in China has been covered in a large number of studies. These studies have focused on large cities, with smaller and lesser known cities largely overlooked. This study analyzed the spatiotemporal changes of land use in Quanzhou, a histo...

Digital forestry in the wildland urban interface

Treesearch

Michael C. Wimberly; Yangjian Zhang; John A. Stanturf

2006-01-01

Growing human populations have led to the expansion of the Wildland-Urban interface (WUI) across the southeastern United States. The juxtaposition of buildings, infrastructure, and forests in the WUI creates challenges for natural resource managers. The presence of flammable vegetation, high rates of human-caused ignitions and high building densities combine to...

Digital forestry in the wildland-urban interface

Treesearch

Michael C. Wimberly; Yangjian Zhang; John A. Stanturf

2006-01-01

Growing human populations have led to the expansion of the Wildland-Urban Interface (WUI) across the southeastern United States. The juxtaposition of buildings, infrastructure. and forests in the WUI creates challenges for natural resource managers. The presence of flammable vegetation. high rates of human-caused ignitions and high building densities combine to...

Environmental implications of carbon limits on market ...

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

Combined heat and power (CHP) is promoted as an economical, energy-efficient option for combating climate change. To fully examine the viability of CHP as a clean-technology solution, its market potential and impacts need to be analyzed as part of scenarios of the future energy system, particularly those with policies limiting greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. This paper develops and analyzes scenarios using a bottom-up, technology rich optimization model of the U.S. energy system. Two distinct carbon reduction goals were set up for analysis. In Target 1, carbon emission reduction goals were only included for the electric sector. In Target 2, carbon emission reduction goals were set across the entire energy system with the target patterned after the U.S.’s commitment to reducing GHG emissions as part of the Paris Agreement reached at the COP21 summit. From a system-wide carbon reduction standpoint, Target 2 is significantly more stringent. In addition, these scenarios examine the implications of various CHP capacity expansion and contraction assumptions and energy prices. The largest CHP capacity expansion are observed in scenarios that included Target 1, but investments were scaled back in scenarios that incorporated Target 2. The latter scenario spurred rapid development of zero-emissions technologies within the electric sector, and purchased electricity increased dramatically in many end-use sectors. The results suggest that CHP may play a role in a carbon-c

Making Wishes Come True: A Guide to Successful School Expansions.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Fowle, Bruce

1993-01-01

A school expansion project should be carefully orchestrated with following steps: compiling list of everyone's perceived needs; determining what is affordable; developing program of requirements; developing a master plan; and overseeing the process. Case studies of two New York State schools (one urban and one suburban) illustrate how the location…

Prioritizing conservation areas for coastal plant diversity under increasing urbanization.

PubMed

Doxa, Aggeliki; Albert, Cécile Hélène; Leriche, Agathe; Saatkamp, Arne

2017-10-01

Coastal urban expansion will continue to drive further biodiversity losses, if conservation targets for coastal ecosystems are not defined and met. Prioritizing areas for future protected area networks is thus an urgent task in such urbanization-threatened ecosystems. Our aim is to quantify past and future losses of coastal vegetation priority areas due to urbanization and assess the effectiveness of the existing protected area network for conservation. We conduct a prioritization analysis, based on 82 coastal plants, including common and IUCN red list species, in a highly-urbanized but biotically diverse region, in South-Eastern France. We evaluate the role of protected areas, by taking into account both strict and multi-use areas. We assess the impact of past and future urbanization on high priority areas, by combining prioritization analyses and urbanization models. We show that half of the highly diverse areas have already been lost due to urbanization. Remaining top priority areas are also among the most exposed to future urban expansion. The effectiveness of the existing protected area (PA) network is only partial. While strict PAs coincide well with top priority areas, they only represent less than one third of priority areas. The effectiveness of multi-use PAs, such as the Natura 2000 network, also remains limited. Our approach highlights the impact of urbanization on plant conservation targets. By modelling urbanization, we manage to identify those areas where protection could be more efficient to limit further losses. We suggest to use our approach in the future to expand the PA network in order to achieve the 2020 Aichi biodiversity targets. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Socio spatial adaptation as a resilience form of native unplanned settlement in confrontation with new planned settlement development pressure (case study: enclave native settlement in Serpong, Tangerang)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ischak, Mohammad; Setioko, Bambang; Nurgandarum, Dedes

2017-12-01

Urban growth refers to expansion of a metropolitan into sub urban areas as the surrounding environment, with no exception of Jakarta city due to limited availability and high price of land within the city. The city of Jakarta, as a metropolitan, carries of expansion in its surrounding environment including Tangerang. Privat developers may an important role in this urban growth through their large scale of new settlement development project. The formation of establishment of enclave native unplanned sub urban settlement scattered within planned new settlement in Tangerang is to be an consequence of Jakarta urban growth. This fenomena could be comprehended as a form of resilience native settlement in confrontation with the new planned settlement pressure. The aim of this research, presented in this paper is to understand the socio-spatial concept of those enclave native settlement as an adaptation form to the new planned settlement pressure. Through descriptive qualitative research method, with indepth interview as a main research instrument, this research could depict or uncover the facts that there are various form of socio-spatial adaptation as the main theme of resilience native suburban settlement formation.

Linking regional stakeholder scenarios and shared socioeconomic pathways: Quantified West African food and climate futures in a global context.

PubMed

Palazzo, Amanda; Vervoort, Joost M; Mason-D'Croz, Daniel; Rutting, Lucas; Havlík, Petr; Islam, Shahnila; Bayala, Jules; Valin, Hugo; Kadi Kadi, Hamé Abdou; Thornton, Philip; Zougmore, Robert

2017-07-01

The climate change research community's shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs) are a set of alternative global development scenarios focused on mitigation of and adaptation to climate change. To use these scenarios as a global context that is relevant for policy guidance at regional and national levels, they have to be connected to an exploration of drivers and challenges informed by regional expertise. In this paper, we present scenarios for West Africa developed by regional stakeholders and quantified using two global economic models, GLOBIOM and IMPACT, in interaction with stakeholder-generated narratives and scenario trends and SSP assumptions. We present this process as an example of linking comparable scenarios across levels to increase coherence with global contexts, while presenting insights about the future of agriculture and food security under a range of future drivers including climate change. In these scenarios, strong economic development increases food security and agricultural development. The latter increases crop and livestock productivity leading to an expansion of agricultural area within the region while reducing the land expansion burden elsewhere. In the context of a global economy, West Africa remains a large consumer and producer of a selection of commodities. However, the growth in population coupled with rising incomes leads to increases in the region's imports. For West Africa, climate change is projected to have negative effects on both crop yields and grassland productivity, and a lack of investment may exacerbate these effects. Linking multi-stakeholder regional scenarios to the global SSPs ensures scenarios that are regionally appropriate and useful for policy development as evidenced in the case study, while allowing for a critical link to global contexts.

[Ecological suitability assessment and optimization of urban land expansion space in Guiyang City].

PubMed

Qiu, Cong-hao; Li, Yang-bing; Feng, Yuan-song

2015-09-01

Based on the case study of Guiyang City, the minimum cumulative resistance model integrating construction land source, ecological rigid constraints and ecological function type resistance factor, was built by use of cost-distance analysis of urban spatial expansion resistance value through ArcGIS 9.3 software in this paper. Then, the ecological resistance of city spatial expansion of Guiyang from 2010 was simulated dynamically and the ecological suitability classification of city spatial expansion was assessed. According to the conflict between the newly increased city construction land in 2014 and its ecological suitability, the unreasonable city land spatial allocation was discussed also. The results showed that the ecological suitability zonation and the city expansion in the study area were basically consistent during 2010-2014, but the conflict between the new city construction and its land ecological suitability was more serious. The ecological conflict area accounted for 58.2% of the new city construction sites, 35.4% of which happened in the ecological control area, 13.9% in the limited development area and 8.9% in the prohibition development area. The intensification of ecological land use conflict would impair the ecological service function and ecological safety, so this paper put forward the city spatial expansion optimal path to preserve the ecological land and improve the construction land space pattern of Guiyang City so as to ensure its ecological safety.

Study on spatial-temporal change of Changsha-Zhuzhou-Xiangtan urban agglomeration based on DMSP / OLS night light data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, Mao; Li, Lel-in

2018-03-01

For the sake of curbing the spreading of Changsha-Zhuzhou-Xiangtan urban agglomeration and spatial disorder in the process of urbanization development on the regional bearing capacity of land resources and ecological environment and assisting to plan the integration process of ChangZhuTan,this paper uses the DMSP/OLS night light data of Chang ZhuTan in 1992 to 2013 to invert the urbanization process index of ChangZhuTan urban agglomeration. Based on the two scales of time and space, this paper analyzes the average index of lights, the speed of urban expansion and urban compactness index et al and studies the temporal and spatial characteristics of ChangZhuTan urban agglomeration in this period.

Land Use Planning and Wildfire: Development Policies Influence Future Probability of Housing Loss

PubMed Central

Syphard, Alexandra D.; Bar Massada, Avi; Butsic, Van; Keeley, Jon E.

2013-01-01

Increasing numbers of homes are being destroyed by wildfire in the wildland-urban interface. With projections of climate change and housing growth potentially exacerbating the threat of wildfire to homes and property, effective fire-risk reduction alternatives are needed as part of a comprehensive fire management plan. Land use planning represents a shift in traditional thinking from trying to eliminate wildfires, or even increasing resilience to them, toward avoiding exposure to them through the informed placement of new residential structures. For land use planning to be effective, it needs to be based on solid understanding of where and how to locate and arrange new homes. We simulated three scenarios of future residential development and projected landscape-level wildfire risk to residential structures in a rapidly urbanizing, fire-prone region in southern California. We based all future development on an econometric subdivision model, but we varied the emphasis of subdivision decision-making based on three broad and common growth types: infill, expansion, and leapfrog. Simulation results showed that decision-making based on these growth types, when applied locally for subdivision of individual parcels, produced substantial landscape-level differences in pattern, location, and extent of development. These differences in development, in turn, affected the area and proportion of structures at risk from burning in wildfires. Scenarios with lower housing density and larger numbers of small, isolated clusters of development, i.e., resulting from leapfrog development, were generally predicted to have the highest predicted fire risk to the largest proportion of structures in the study area, and infill development was predicted to have the lowest risk. These results suggest that land use planning should be considered an important component to fire risk management and that consistently applied policies based on residential pattern may provide substantial benefits for future risk reduction. PMID:23977120

Household food waste collection: Building service networks through neighborhood expansion.

PubMed

Armington, William R; Chen, Roger B

2018-04-17

In this paper we develop a residential food waste collection analysis and modeling framework that captures transportation costs faced by service providers in their initial stages of service provision. With this framework and model, we gain insights into network transportation costs and investigate possible service expansion scenarios faced by these organizations. We solve a vehicle routing problem (VRP) formulated for the residential neighborhood context using a heuristic approach developed. The scenarios considered follow a narrative where service providers start with an initial neighborhood or community and expands to incorporate other communities and their households. The results indicate that increasing household participation, decreases the travel time and cost per household, up to a critical threshold, beyond which we see marginal time and cost improvements. Additionally, the results indicate different outcomes in expansion scenarios depending on the household density of incorporated neighborhoods. As household participation and density increases, the travel time per household in the network decreases. However, at approximately 10-20 households per km 2 , the decrease in travel time per household is marginal, suggesting a lowerbound household density threshold. Finally, we show in food waste collection, networks share common scaling effects with respect to travel time and costs, regardless of the number of nodes and links. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Socio-economic and ecological impacts of global protected area expansion plans

PubMed Central

Visconti, Piero; Bakkenes, Michel; Smith, Robert J.; Joppa, Lucas; Sykes, Rachel E.

2015-01-01

Several global strategies for protected area (PA) expansion have been proposed to achieve the Convention on Biological Diversity's Aichi target 11 as a means to stem biodiversity loss, as required by the Aichi target 12. However, habitat loss outside PAs will continue to affect habitats and species, and PAs may displace human activities into areas that might be even more important for species persistence. Here we measure the expected contribution of PA expansion strategies to Aichi target 12 by estimating the extent of suitable habitat available for all terrestrial mammals, with and without additional protection (the latter giving the counterfactual outcome), under different socio-economic scenarios and consequent land-use change to 2020. We found that expanding PAs to achieve representation targets for ecoregions under a Business-as-usual socio-economic scenario will result in a worse prognosis than doing nothing for more than 50% of the world's terrestrial mammals. By contrast, targeting protection towards threatened species can increase the suitable habitat available to over 60% of terrestrial mammals. Even in the absence of additional protection, an alternative socio-economic scenario, adopting progressive changes in human consumption, leads to positive outcomes for mammals globally and to the largest improvements for wide-ranging species. PMID:26460136

Socio-economic and ecological impacts of global protected area expansion plans.

PubMed

Visconti, Piero; Bakkenes, Michel; Smith, Robert J; Joppa, Lucas; Sykes, Rachel E

2015-11-05

Several global strategies for protected area (PA) expansion have been proposed to achieve the Convention on Biological Diversity's Aichi target 11 as a means to stem biodiversity loss, as required by the Aichi target 12. However, habitat loss outside PAs will continue to affect habitats and species, and PAs may displace human activities into areas that might be even more important for species persistence. Here we measure the expected contribution of PA expansion strategies to Aichi target 12 by estimating the extent of suitable habitat available for all terrestrial mammals, with and without additional protection (the latter giving the counterfactual outcome), under different socio-economic scenarios and consequent land-use change to 2020. We found that expanding PAs to achieve representation targets for ecoregions under a Business-as-usual socio-economic scenario will result in a worse prognosis than doing nothing for more than 50% of the world's terrestrial mammals. By contrast, targeting protection towards threatened species can increase the suitable habitat available to over 60% of terrestrial mammals. Even in the absence of additional protection, an alternative socio-economic scenario, adopting progressive changes in human consumption, leads to positive outcomes for mammals globally and to the largest improvements for wide-ranging species. © 2015 The Author(s).

Potential environmental impact of tidal energy extraction in the Pentland Firth at large spatial scales: results of a biogeochemical model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

van der Molen, Johan; Ruardij, Piet; Greenwood, Naomi

2016-05-01

A model study was carried out of the potential large-scale (> 100 km) effects of marine renewable tidal energy generation in the Pentland Firth, using the 3-D hydrodynamics-biogeochemistry model GETM-ERSEM-BFM. A realistic 800 MW scenario and a high-impact scenario with massive expansion of tidal energy extraction to 8 GW scenario were considered. The realistic 800 MW scenario suggested minor effects on the tides, and undetectable effects on the biogeochemistry. The massive-expansion 8 GW scenario suggested effects would be observed over hundreds of kilometres away with changes of up to 10 % in tidal and ecosystem variables, in particular in a broad area in the vicinity of the Wash. There, waters became less turbid, and primary production increased with associated increases in faunal ecosystem variables. Moreover, a one-off increase in carbon storage in the sea bed was detected. Although these first results suggest positive environmental effects, further investigation is recommended of (i) the residual circulation in the vicinity of the Pentland Firth and effects on larval dispersal using a higher-resolution model and (ii) ecosystem effects with (future) state-of-the-art models if energy extraction substantially beyond 1 GW is planned.

Impact factors on expansion of built-up areas in Zhejiang Province, China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liu, Dong; Zhu, Qiankun; Li, Yan; Gong, Fang

2017-10-01

Built-up areas are the results of human activities. Not only are they the real reflection of human and society activities, but also one of the most important input parameters for the simulation of biogeochemical cycle. Therefore, it is very necessary to map the distribution of built-up areas and monitor their changes by using new technologies and methods at high spatiotemporal resolution. By combining technologies of GIS (Geographic Information System) and RS (Remote Sensing), this study mainly explored the expansion and driving factors of built-up areas at the beginning of the 21st century in Zhejiang Province, China. Firstly, it introduced the mapping processes of LULC (Land Use and Land Cover) based on the method which combined object-oriented method and binary decision tree. Then, it analyzed the expansion features of built-up areas in Zhejiang from 2000 to 2005 and 2005 to 2010. In addition to these, potential driving factors on the expansion of built-up areas were also explored, which contained physical geographical factors, railways, highways, rivers, urban centers, elevation, and slop. Results revealed that the expansions of built-up areas in Zhejiang from 2000 to 2005 and from 2005 to 2010 were very obvious and they showed high levels of variation in spatial heterogeneity. Except those, increased built-up areas with distance to railways, highways, rivers, and urban centers could be fitted with power function (y = a*xb ), with minimum R2 of 0.9507 for urban centers from 2000 to 2005; the increased permillages of built-up areas to mean elevation and mean slop could be fitted with exponential functions (y = a*ebx), with minimum R2 of 0.6657 for mean slop from 2005 to 2010. Besides, government policy could also impact expansion of built-up areas. In a nutshell, a series of conclusions were obtained through this study about the spatial features and driving factors of evolution of built-up areas in Zhejiang from 2000 to 2010.

Oblique Photogrammetry Supporting 3d Urban Reconstruction of Complex Scenarios

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Toschi, I.; Ramos, M. M.; Nocerino, E.; Menna, F.; Remondino, F.; Moe, K.; Poli, D.; Legat, K.; Fassi, F.

2017-05-01

Accurate 3D city models represent an important source of geospatial information to support various "smart city" applications, such as space management, energy assessment, 3D cartography, noise and pollution mapping as well as disaster management. Even though remarkable progress has been made in recent years, there are still many open issues, especially when it comes to the 3D modelling of complex urban scenarios like historical and densely-built city centres featuring narrow streets and non-conventional building shapes. Most approaches introduce strong building priors/constraints on symmetry and roof typology that penalize urban environments having high variations of roof shapes. Furthermore, although oblique photogrammetry is rapidly maturing, the use of slanted views for façade reconstruction is not completely included in the reconstruction pipeline of state-of-the-art software. This paper aims to investigate state-of-the-art methods for 3D building modelling in complex urban scenarios with the support of oblique airborne images. A reconstruction approach based on roof primitives fitting is tested. Oblique imagery is then exploited to support the manual editing of the generated building models. At the same time, mobile mapping data are collected at cm resolution and then integrated with the aerial ones. All approaches are tested on the historical city centre of Bergamo (Italy).

Modeling peripheral vision for moving target search and detection.

PubMed

Yang, Ji Hyun; Huston, Jesse; Day, Michael; Balogh, Imre

2012-06-01

Most target search and detection models focus on foveal vision. In reality, peripheral vision plays a significant role, especially in detecting moving objects. There were 23 subjects who participated in experiments simulating target detection tasks in urban and rural environments while their gaze parameters were tracked. Button responses associated with foveal object and peripheral object (PO) detection and recognition were recorded. In an urban scenario, pedestrians appearing in the periphery holding guns were threats and pedestrians with empty hands were non-threats. In a rural scenario, non-U.S. unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) were considered threats and U.S. UAVs non-threats. On average, subjects missed detecting 2.48 POs among 50 POs in the urban scenario and 5.39 POs in the rural scenario. Both saccade reaction time and button reaction time can be predicted by peripheral angle and entrance speed of POs. Fast moving objects were detected faster than slower objects and POs appearing at wider angles took longer to detect than those closer to the gaze center. A second-order mixed-effect model was applied to provide each subject's prediction model for peripheral target detection performance as a function of eccentricity angle and speed. About half the subjects used active search patterns while the other half used passive search patterns. An interactive 3-D visualization tool was developed to provide a representation of macro-scale head and gaze movement in the search and target detection task. An experimentally validated stochastic model of peripheral vision in realistic target detection scenarios was developed.

WaLA, a versatile model for the life cycle assessment of urban water systems: Formalism and framework for a modular approach.

PubMed

Loubet, Philippe; Roux, Philippe; Bellon-Maurel, Véronique

2016-01-01

The emphasis on the sustainable urban water management has increased over the last decades. In this context decision makers need tools to measure and improve the environmental performance of urban water systems (UWS) and their related scenarios. In this paper, we propose a versatile model, named WaLA (Water system Life cycle Assessment), which reduces the complexity of the UWS while ensuring a good representation of water issues and fulfilling life cycle assessment (LCA) requirements. Indeed, LCAs require building UWS models, which can be tedious if several scenarios are to be compared. The WaLA model is based on a framework that uses a "generic component" representing alternately water technology units and water users, with their associated water flows, and the associated impacts due to water deprivation, emissions, operation and infrastructure. UWS scenarios can be built by inter-operating and connecting the technologies and users components in a modular and integrated way. The model calculates life cycle impacts at a monthly temporal resolution for a set of services provided to users, as defined by the scenario. It also provides the ratio of impacts to amount of services provided and useful information for UWS diagnosis or comparison of different scenarios. The model is implemented in a Matlab/Simulink interface thanks to object-oriented programming. The applicability of the model is demonstrated using a virtual case study based on available life cycle inventory data. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Daily Cycle of Air Temperature and Surface Temperature in Stone Forest

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, K.; Li, Y.; Wang, X.; Yuan, M.

2013-12-01

Urbanization is one of the most profound human activities that impact on climate change. In cities, where are highly artificial areas, the conflict between human activity and natural climate is particularly prominent. Urban areas always have the larger area of impervious land, the higher consumption of greenhouse gases, more emissions of anthropogenic heat and air pollution, all contribute to the urban warming phenomena. Understanding the mechanisms causing a variety of phenomena involved in the urban warming is critical to distinguish the anthropogenic effect and natural variation in the climate change. However, the exact dynamics of urban warming were poorly understood, and effective control strategies are not available. Here we present a study of the daily cycle of air temperature and surface temperature in Stone Forest. The specific heat of the stones in the Stone Forest and concrete of the man-made structures within the cities are approximate. Besides, the height of the Stone Forest and the height of buildings within the city are also similar. As a scenic area, the Stone Forest is being preserved and only opened for sightseeing. There is no anthropogenic heat, as well air pollution within the Stone Forest. The thermal environment in Stone Forest can be considered to be a simulation of thermal environment in the city, which can reveal the effect of man-made structures on urban thermal environment. We conducted the field studies and numerical analysis in the Stone Forest for 4 typical urban morphology and environment scenarios, including high-rise compact cities, low-rise sparse cities, garden cities and isolated single stone. Air temperature and relative humidity were measured every half an hour in 15 different locations, which within different spatial distribution of stones and can represent the four urban scenarios respectively. At the same time, an infrared camera was used to take thermal images and get the hourly surface temperatures of stones and vegetation in the measurement area. The differences of the daily cycle of air temperature and surface temperature in these four scenarios show a significant impact of urban man-made structures on the dynamics of urban thermal environment.

Impacts of future climate change on urban flood volumes in Hohhot in northern China: benefits of climate change mitigation and adaptations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhou, Qianqian; Leng, Guoyong; Huang, Maoyi

2018-01-01

As China becomes increasingly urbanised, flooding has become a regular occurrence in its major cities. Assessing the effects of future climate change on urban flood volumes is crucial to informing better management of such disasters given the severity of the devastating impacts of flooding (e.g. the 2016 flooding events across China). Although recent studies have investigated the impacts of future climate change on urban flooding, the effects of both climate change mitigation and adaptation have rarely been accounted for together in a consistent framework. In this study, we assess the benefits of mitigating climate change by reducing greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and locally adapting to climate change by modifying drainage systems to reduce urban flooding under various climate change scenarios through a case study conducted in northern China. The urban drainage model - Storm Water Management Model - was used to simulate urban flood volumes using current and two adapted drainage systems (i.e. pipe enlargement and low-impact development, LID), driven by bias-corrected meteorological forcing from five general circulation models in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 archive. Results indicate that urban flood volume is projected to increase by 52 % over 2020-2040 compared to the volume in 1971-2000 under the business-as-usual scenario (i.e. Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 8.5). The magnitudes of urban flood volumes are found to increase nonlinearly with changes in precipitation intensity. On average, the projected flood volume under RCP 2.6 is 13 % less than that under RCP 8.5, demonstrating the benefits of global-scale climate change mitigation efforts in reducing local urban flood volumes. Comparison of reduced flood volumes between climate change mitigation and local adaptation (by improving drainage systems) scenarios suggests that local adaptation is more effective than climate change mitigation in reducing future flood volumes. This has broad implications for the research community relative to drainage system design and modelling in a changing environment. This study highlights the importance of accounting for local adaptation when coping with future urban floods.

Impacts of future climate change on urban flood volumes in Hohhot in northern China: benefits of climate change mitigation and adaptations

DOE PAGES

Zhou, Qianqian; Leng, Guoyong; Huang, Maoyi

2018-01-15

As China becomes increasingly urbanised, flooding has become a regular occurrence in its major cities. Assessing the effects of future climate change on urban flood volumes is crucial to informing better management of such disasters given the severity of the devastating impacts of flooding (e.g. the 2016 flooding events across China). Although recent studies have investigated the impacts of future climate change on urban flooding, the effects of both climate change mitigation and adaptation have rarely been accounted for together in a consistent framework. In this study, we assess the benefits of mitigating climate change by reducing greenhouse gas (GHG)more » emissions and locally adapting to climate change by modifying drainage systems to reduce urban flooding under various climate change scenarios through a case study conducted in northern China. The urban drainage model – Storm Water Management Model – was used to simulate urban flood volumes using current and two adapted drainage systems (i.e. pipe enlargement and low-impact development, LID), driven by bias-corrected meteorological forcing from five general circulation models in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 archive. Results indicate that urban flood volume is projected to increase by 52 % over 2020–2040 compared to the volume in 1971–2000 under the business-as-usual scenario (i.e. Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 8.5). The magnitudes of urban flood volumes are found to increase nonlinearly with changes in precipitation intensity. On average, the projected flood volume under RCP 2.6 is 13 % less than that under RCP 8.5, demonstrating the benefits of global-scale climate change mitigation efforts in reducing local urban flood volumes. Comparison of reduced flood volumes between climate change mitigation and local adaptation (by improving drainage systems) scenarios suggests that local adaptation is more effective than climate change mitigation in reducing future flood volumes. This has broad implications for the research community relative to drainage system design and modelling in a changing environment. Furthermore, this study highlights the importance of accounting for local adaptation when coping with future urban floods.« less

Impact of regional afforestation on climatic conditions in metropolitan areas: case study of Copenhagen

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Stysiak, Aleksander Andrzej; Bergen Jensen, Marina; Mahura, Alexander

2016-04-01

Like most other places, European metropolitan areas will face a range of climate-related challenges over the next decades that may influence the nature of urban life across the continent. Under future urbanization and climate change scenarios the well-being and comfort of the urban population might become progressively compromised. In urban areas, the effects of the warming climate will be accelerated by combination of Urban Heat Island effect (UHI) and extreme heat waves. The land cover composition directly influences atmospheric variability, and can either escalate or downscale the projected changes. Vegetation, forest ecosystems in particular, are anticipated to play an important role in modulating local and regional climatic conditions, and to be vital factor in the process of adapting cities to warming climate. This study investigates the impact of forest and land-cover change on formation and development of temperature regimes in the Copenhagen Metropolitan Area (CPH-MA). Potential to modify the UHI effect in CPH-MA is estimated. Using 2009 meteorological data, and up-to-date 2012 high resolution land-cover data we employed the online integrated meteorology-chemistry/aerosols Enviro-HIRLAM (Environment - High Resolution Limited Area Model) modeling system to simulate air temperature (at 2 meter height) fields for a selected period in July 2009. Employing research tools (such as METGRAF meteorological software and Geographical Information Systems) we then estimated the influence of different afforestation and urbanization scenarios with new forests being located after the Danish national afforestation plan, after proximity to the city center, after dominating wind characteristics, and urbanization taking place as densification of the existing conurbation. This study showed the difference in temperature up to 3.25°C, and the decrease in the spatial extent of temperature fields up to 68%, depending on the selected scenario. Performed simulations demonstrated that well-positioned and well-sized afforestation at the regional scale can significantly affect the spatial distribution, structure and intensity of the temperature field. This study points to vegetation having practical applications in urban and regional planning for modifying local climatic conditions. Keywords: Urban Heat Island, Afforestation, Land cover change, Urban planning, Climate change adaptation, Enviro-HIRLAM

Impacts of future climate change on urban flood volumes in Hohhot in northern China: benefits of climate change mitigation and adaptations

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Zhou, Qianqian; Leng, Guoyong; Huang, Maoyi

As China becomes increasingly urbanised, flooding has become a regular occurrence in its major cities. Assessing the effects of future climate change on urban flood volumes is crucial to informing better management of such disasters given the severity of the devastating impacts of flooding (e.g. the 2016 flooding events across China). Although recent studies have investigated the impacts of future climate change on urban flooding, the effects of both climate change mitigation and adaptation have rarely been accounted for together in a consistent framework. In this study, we assess the benefits of mitigating climate change by reducing greenhouse gas (GHG)more » emissions and locally adapting to climate change by modifying drainage systems to reduce urban flooding under various climate change scenarios through a case study conducted in northern China. The urban drainage model – Storm Water Management Model – was used to simulate urban flood volumes using current and two adapted drainage systems (i.e. pipe enlargement and low-impact development, LID), driven by bias-corrected meteorological forcing from five general circulation models in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 archive. Results indicate that urban flood volume is projected to increase by 52 % over 2020–2040 compared to the volume in 1971–2000 under the business-as-usual scenario (i.e. Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 8.5). The magnitudes of urban flood volumes are found to increase nonlinearly with changes in precipitation intensity. On average, the projected flood volume under RCP 2.6 is 13 % less than that under RCP 8.5, demonstrating the benefits of global-scale climate change mitigation efforts in reducing local urban flood volumes. Comparison of reduced flood volumes between climate change mitigation and local adaptation (by improving drainage systems) scenarios suggests that local adaptation is more effective than climate change mitigation in reducing future flood volumes. This has broad implications for the research community relative to drainage system design and modelling in a changing environment. Furthermore, this study highlights the importance of accounting for local adaptation when coping with future urban floods.« less

Modeling Future Land Use Scenarios in South Korea: Applying the IPCC Special Report on Emissions Scenarios and the SLEUTH Model on a Local Scale

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Han, Haejin; Hwang, YunSeop; Ha, Sung Ryong; Kim, Byung Sik

2015-05-01

This study developed three scenarios of future land use/land cover on a local level for the Kyung-An River Basin and its vicinity in South Korea at a 30-m resolution based on the two scenario families of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Special Report Emissions Scenarios (SRES): A2 and B1, as well as a business-as-usual scenario. The IPCC SRES A2 and B1 were used to define future local development patterns and associated land use change. We quantified the population-driven demand for urban land use for each qualitative storyline and allocated the urban demand in geographic space using the SLEUTH model. The model results demonstrate the possible land use/land cover change scenarios for the years from 2000 to 2070 by examining the broad narrative of each SRES within the context of a local setting, such as the Kyoungan River Basin, constructing narratives of local development shifts and modeling a set of `best guess' approximations of the future land use conditions in the study area. This study found substantial differences in demands and patterns of land use changes among the scenarios, indicating compact development patterns under the SRES B1 compared to the rapid and dispersed development under the SRES A2.

Modeling future land use scenarios in South Korea: applying the IPCC special report on emissions scenarios and the SLEUTH model on a local scale.

PubMed

Han, Haejin; Hwang, YunSeop; Ha, Sung Ryong; Kim, Byung Sik

2015-05-01

This study developed three scenarios of future land use/land cover on a local level for the Kyung-An River Basin and its vicinity in South Korea at a 30-m resolution based on the two scenario families of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Special Report Emissions Scenarios (SRES): A2 and B1, as well as a business-as-usual scenario. The IPCC SRES A2 and B1 were used to define future local development patterns and associated land use change. We quantified the population-driven demand for urban land use for each qualitative storyline and allocated the urban demand in geographic space using the SLEUTH model. The model results demonstrate the possible land use/land cover change scenarios for the years from 2000 to 2070 by examining the broad narrative of each SRES within the context of a local setting, such as the Kyoungan River Basin, constructing narratives of local development shifts and modeling a set of 'best guess' approximations of the future land use conditions in the study area. This study found substantial differences in demands and patterns of land use changes among the scenarios, indicating compact development patterns under the SRES B1 compared to the rapid and dispersed development under the SRES A2.

Future Urban Climate Projection in A Tropical Megacity Based on Global and Regional Scenarios

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Darmanto, N. S.; Varquez, A. C. G.; Kanda, M.

2017-12-01

Cities in Asian developing countries experience rapid transformation in urban morphology and energy consumption, which correspondingly affects urban climate. Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Model coupled with improved single-layer urban canopy model incorporating realistic distribution of urban parameters and anthropogenic heat emission (AHE) in the tropic Jakarta Greater Area was conducted. Simulation was conducted during the dry months from 2006 to 2015 and agreed well with point and satellite observation. The same technology coupled with pseudo global warming (PGW) method based on representative concentration pathways (RCP) scenario 2.6 and 8.5 was conducted to produce futuristic climate condition in 2050. Projected urban morphology and AHE in 2050s were constructed using regional urban growing model with shared socioeconomic pathways (SSP) among its inputs. Compact future urban configuration, based on SSP1, was coupled to RCP2.6. Unrestrained future urban configuration, based on SSP3, was coupled to RCP8.5. Results show that background warming from RCP 2.6 and 8.5 will increase background temperature by 0.55°C and 1.2°C throughout the region, respectively. Future projection of urban sprawl results to an additional 0.3°C and 0.5°C increase on average, with maximum increase of 1.1°C and 1.3°C due to urban effect for RCP2.6/compact and RCP8.5/unrestrained, respectively. Higher moisture content in urban area is indicated in the future due to higher evaporation. Change in urban roughness is likely affect slower wind velocity in urban area and sea breeze front inland penetration the future compare with current condition. Acknowledgement: This research was supported by the Environment Research and Technology Development Fund (S-14) of the Ministry of the Environment, Japan.

Analysis of Phosphorus Flows through Minnesota's Twin Cities Urban Food-Shed: Three Scenarios for Improving Nutrient Efficiency

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Peterson, H. M.; Baker, L. A.

2012-12-01

Phosphorus (P) is a non-renewable resource, essential for agriculture and human food production. Although it is being depleted globally, urban P use is inefficient and contributes to water resources degradation, particularly accelerated eutrophication of receiving waters. A paradox in the P cycle is that although P enters the system through fertilizer application to agricultural land or livestock manure production in rural areas, the resulting food produced is consumed within urban households. Dietary food consumption is the largest P input to, and output from, Twin Cities Metropolitan Area (TCMA), Minnesota, households. This 7-county area has a population of 2.9 million (2010), which is over half of the State's population. Human food accounts for 41% of the P input to and 46% of the P output from the TCMA; only about 1% of the P in food waste is recycled. Expanding on previous work by the Twin Cities Household Ecosystem Project (TCHEP), this P flow analysis aims to quantify nutrient inputs required throughout the agricultural system to produce the amount of food consumed by TCMA households, while examining P use efficiency by summarizing the extent of leakage (waste), storage, and reuse throughout these systems. Food corresponding to a minimum of 80% of the total dietary P-input for TCMA households can be produced entirely within Minnesota's agricultural system, hence our "food-shed" is more-or-less directly connected to urban consumers. The top food products which contribute the largest input of dietary P are milk, cheese, wheat flour, beef, chicken, caloric sweeteners and pork. Mapping out an agricultural footprint which can support this urban ecosystem enables P use to be conceptualized through a circular economy model, in this case with Minnesota as the food-shed boundary. Using state-level data, augmented with intensive interview data collected from local livestock and food production experts, a detailed P balance was developed for each major animal and cropping system within the food-shed. P use efficiencies for these systems include: corn (1.14), hog (0.47), dairy (0.36), and beef (0.20). We will present three scenarios to illustrate how upstream and downstream changes alter the urban food-shed P balance. The first scenario examines upstream (food processing) waste management to identify nutrient recycling inefficiencies between agricultural and urban systems. The second scenario focuses on quantifying how altering consumer choices, such as converting to a more vegetable-based diet, shifts the P balance within the food-shed. The final scenario seeks to improve P use efficiency within the urban ecosystem to reduce downstream transfer. This research will contribute to the understanding of how human diets within a concentrated urban ecosystem impact an entire systems P balance. The potential for increasing P use efficiency and identifying barriers and opportunities to improve P use efficiency will be discussed.

Quantification and mapping of urban fluxes under climate change: Application of WRF-SUEWS model to Greater Porto area (Portugal).

PubMed

Rafael, S; Martins, H; Marta-Almeida, M; Sá, E; Coelho, S; Rocha, A; Borrego, C; Lopes, M

2017-05-01

Climate change and the growth of urban populations are two of the main challenges facing Europe today. These issues are linked as climate change results in serious challenges for cities. Recent attention has focused on how urban surface-atmosphere exchanges of heat and water will be affected by climate change and the implications for urban planning and sustainability. In this study energy fluxes for Greater Porto area, Portugal, were estimated and the influence of the projected climate change evaluated. To accomplish this, the Weather Research and Forecasting Model (WRF) and the Surface Urban Energy and Water Balance Scheme (SUEWS) were applied for two climatological scenarios: a present (or reference, 1986-2005) scenario and a future scenario (2046-2065), in this case the Representative Concentration Pathway RCP8.5, which reflects the worst set of expectations (with the most onerous impacts). The results show that for the future climate conditions, the incoming shortwave radiation will increase by around 10%, the sensible heat flux around 40% and the net storage heat flux around 35%. In contrast, the latent heat flux will decrease about 20%. The changes in the magnitude of the different fluxes result in an increase of the net all-wave radiation by 15%. The implications of the changes of the energy balance on the meteorological variables are discussed, particularly in terms of temperature and precipitation. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Evaluation of Resident Evacuations in Urban Rainstorm Waterlogging Disasters Based on Scenario Simulation: Daoli District (Harbin, China) as an Example

PubMed Central

Chen, Peng; Zhang, Jiquan; Zhang, Lifeng; Sun, Yingyue

2014-01-01

With the acceleration of urbanization, waterlogging has become an increasingly serious issue. Road waterlogging has a great influence on residents’ travel and traffic safety. Thus, evaluation of residents’ travel difficulties caused by rainstorm waterlogging disasters is of great significance for their travel safety and emergency shelter needs. This study investigated urban rainstorm waterlogging disasters, evaluating the impact of the evolution of such disasters’ evolution on residents’ evacuation, using Daoli District (Harbin, China) as the research demonstration area to perform empirical research using a combination of scenario simulations, questionnaires, GIS spatial technology analysis and a hydrodynamics method to establish an urban rainstorm waterlogging numerical simulation model. The results show that under the conditions of a 10-year frequency rainstorm, there are three street sections in the study area with a high difficulty index, five street sections with medium difficulty index and the index is low at other districts, while under the conditions of a 50-year frequency rainstorm, there are five street sections with a high difficulty index, nine street sections with a medium difficulty index and the other districts all have a low index. These research results can help set the foundation for further small-scale urban rainstorm waterlogging disaster scenario simulations and emergency shelter planning as well as forecasting and warning, and provide a brand-new thought and research method for research on residents’ safe travel. PMID:25264676

Greenhouse gas footprint and the carbon flow associated with different solid waste management strategy for urban metabolism in Bangladesh.

PubMed

Islam, K M Nazmul

2017-02-15

Greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from municipal solid waste (MSW) and associated climate change consequences are gripping attention globally, while MSW management as a vital subsystem of urban metabolism significantly influences the urban carbon cycles. This study evaluates the GHG emissions and carbon flow of existing and proposed MSW management in Bangladesh through scenario analysis, including landfill with landfill gas (LFG) recovery, waste to energy (WtE), and material recovery facility (MRF). The analysis indicates that, scenario H 2 and H 5 emitted net GHGs -152.20kg CO 2 eq. and -140.32kg CO 2 eq., respectively, in comparison with 420.88kg CO 2 eq. of scenario H 1 for managing per ton of wastes during the reference year 2015. The annual horizontal carbon flux of the waste input was 319Gg and 158Gg during 2015 in Dhaka and Chittagong, respectively. An integrated strategy of managing the wastes in the urban areas of Bangladesh involving WtE incineration plant and LFG recovery to generate electricity as well as MRF could reverse back 209.46Gg carbon and 422.29Gg carbon to the Chittagong and Dhaka urban system, respectively. This study provides valuable insights for the MSW policy framework and revamp of existing MSW management practices with regards to reduction of GHGs emissions from the waste sector in Bangladesh. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Impacts of ambient temperature on the burden of bacillary dysentery in urban and rural Hefei, China.

PubMed

Cheng, J; Xie, M Y; Zhao, K F; Wu, J J; Xu, Z W; Song, J; Zhao, D S; Li, K S; Wang, X; Yang, H H; Wen, L Y; Su, H; Tong, S L

2017-06-01

Bacillary dysentery continues to be a major health issue in developing countries and ambient temperature is a possible environmental determinant. However, evidence about the risk of bacillary dysentery attributable to ambient temperature under climate change scenarios is scarce. We examined the attributable fraction (AF) of temperature-related bacillary dysentery in urban and rural Hefei, China during 2006-2012 and projected its shifting pattern under climate change scenarios using a distributed lag non-linear model. The risk of bacillary dysentery increased with the temperature rise above a threshold (18·4 °C), and the temperature effects appeared to be acute. The proportion of bacillary dysentery attributable to hot temperatures was 18·74% (95 empirical confidence interval (eCI): 8·36-27·44%). Apparent difference of AF was observed between urban and rural areas, with AF varying from 26·87% (95% eCI 16·21-36·68%) in urban area to -1·90% (95 eCI -25·03 to 16·05%) in rural area. Under the climate change scenarios alone (1-4 °C rise), the AF from extreme hot temperatures (>31·2 °C) would rise greatly accompanied by the relatively stable AF from moderate hot temperatures (18·4-31·2 °C). If climate change proceeds, urban area may be more likely to suffer from rapidly increasing burden of disease from extreme hot temperatures in the absence of effective mitigation and adaptation strategies.

Bioaccessibility of metals and human health risk assessment in community urban gardens.

PubMed

Izquierdo, M; De Miguel, E; Ortega, M F; Mingot, J

2015-09-01

Pseudo-total (i.e. aqua regia extractable) and gastric-bioaccessible (i.e. glycine+HCl extractable) concentrations of Ca, Co, Cr, Cu, Fe, Mn, Ni, Pb and Zn were determined in a total of 48 samples collected from six community urban gardens of different characteristics in the city of Madrid (Spain). Calcium carbonate appears to be the soil property that determines the bioaccessibility of a majority of those elements, and the lack of influence of organic matter, pH and texture can be explained by their low levels in the samples (organic matter) or their narrow range of variation (pH and texture). A conservative risk assessment with bioaccessible concentrations in two scenarios, i.e. adult urban farmers and children playing in urban gardens, revealed acceptable levels of risk, but with large differences between urban gardens depending on their history of land use and their proximity to busy areas in the city center. Only in a worst-case scenario in which children who use urban gardens as recreational areas also eat the produce grown in them would the risk exceed the limits of acceptability. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Reducing Wind Curtailment through Transmission Expansion in a Wind Vision Future

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Jorgensen, Jennie; Mai, Trieu; Brinkman, Greg

The Department of Energy's 2015 Wind Vision study, which analyzed an ambitious scenario where wind power served 35% of U.S. electricity consumption in 2050, showed the potential for wind energy to provide substantial health, environmental, and economic benefits. Using a commercial unit commitment and economic dispatch model, we build on this research by assessing the hourly operational feasibility of a similar high wind future in the Western United States. Our detailed simulations found no hours of unmet load or reserve violations with more than 35% potential wind (and 12% potential solar) available on the system, which highlights the technical possibilitymore » of integrating large amounts of wind energy. However, absent significant changes to the western grid, we find that substantial wind curtailment could be an issue, as it could degrade the potential for wind power to reduce fuel costs and lowering the emission benefits. To assess the value of transmission to mitigate wind curtailment, we model a suite of transmission expansion scenarios. We find that wind curtailment could be reduced by approximately half under a scenario where new transmission is based only on proposed projects. This avoided wind curtailment could lower annual production costs and reduce carbon dioxide emissions substantially. Greater transmission expansion was found to yield further benefits, although the marginal benefits of these new lines were found to decline. Overall, these results suggest that power systems operation can be realized with more than 35% wind penetration, but that transmission expansion is likely to play a vital role.« less

A wedge strategy for mitigation of urban warming in future climate scenarios

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhao, L.

2016-12-01

Heat stress is one of the most severe climate threats to the human society in a future warmer world. The situation is further compounded in urban areas by the urban heat island (UHI). Because the majority of the world's population is projected to live in cities, there is a pressing need to find effective solutions for the high temperature problem. It is now recognized that in addition to the traditional emphasis on preparedness to cope with heat stress, these solutions should include active modifications of urban land form to reduce urban temperatures. Here we use an urban climate model to investigate the effectiveness of these active methods in mitigating the urban heat, both individually and collectively. By adopting highly reflective roofs citywide, almost all the cities in the USA and in southern Canada are transformed into cold islands or "white oases" where the daytime surface temperatures are lower than those in the surrounding rural land. The average oasis effect is -3.4 ± 0.3 K (mean ± 1 standard error) for the period 2071-2100 under the RCP4.5 scenario. A UHI mitigation wedge strategy consisting of cool roof, street vegetation and reflective pavement has the potential to eliminate the daytime UHI plus the greenhouse gas induced warming.

The impact of projected increases in urbanization on ecosystem services.

PubMed

Eigenbrod, F; Bell, V A; Davies, H N; Heinemeyer, A; Armsworth, P R; Gaston, K J

2011-11-07

Alteration in land use is likely to be a major driver of changes in the distribution of ecosystem services before 2050. In Europe, urbanization will probably be the main cause of land-use change. This increase in urbanization will result in spatial shifts in both supplies of ecosystem services and the beneficiaries of those services; the net outcome of such shifts remains to be determined. Here, we model changes in urban land cover in Britain based on large (16%) projected increases in the human population by 2031, and the consequences for three different services--flood mitigation, agricultural production and carbon storage. We show that under a scenario of densification of urban areas, the combined effect of increasing population and loss of permeable surfaces is likely to result in 1.7 million people living within 1 km of rivers with at least 10 per cent increases in projected peak flows, but that increasing suburban 'sprawl' will have little effect on flood mitigation services. Conversely, losses of stored carbon and agricultural production are over three times as high under the sprawl as under the 'densification' urban growth scenarios. Our results illustrate the challenges of meeting, but also of predicting, future demands and patterns of ecosystem services in the face of increasing urbanization.

The impact of projected increases in urbanization on ecosystem services

PubMed Central

Eigenbrod, F.; Bell, V. A.; Davies, H. N.; Heinemeyer, A.; Armsworth, P. R.; Gaston, K. J.

2011-01-01

Alteration in land use is likely to be a major driver of changes in the distribution of ecosystem services before 2050. In Europe, urbanization will probably be the main cause of land-use change. This increase in urbanization will result in spatial shifts in both supplies of ecosystem services and the beneficiaries of those services; the net outcome of such shifts remains to be determined. Here, we model changes in urban land cover in Britain based on large (16%) projected increases in the human population by 2031, and the consequences for three different services—flood mitigation, agricultural production and carbon storage. We show that under a scenario of densification of urban areas, the combined effect of increasing population and loss of permeable surfaces is likely to result in 1.7 million people living within 1 km of rivers with at least 10 per cent increases in projected peak flows, but that increasing suburban ‘sprawl’ will have little effect on flood mitigation services. Conversely, losses of stored carbon and agricultural production are over three times as high under the sprawl as under the ‘densification’ urban growth scenarios. Our results illustrate the challenges of meeting, but also of predicting, future demands and patterns of ecosystem services in the face of increasing urbanization. PMID:21389035

Multitemporal mapping of peri-urban carbon stocks and soil sealing from satellite data.

PubMed

Villa, Paolo; Malucelli, Francesco; Scalenghe, Riccardo

2018-01-15

Peri-urbanisation is the expansion of compact urban areas towards low-density settlements. This phenomenon directly challenges the agricultural landscape multifunctionality, including its carbon (C) storage capacity. Using satellite data, we mapped peri-urban C stocks in soil and built-up surfaces over three areas from 1993 to 2014 in the Emilia-Romagna region, Italy: a thinly populated area around Piacenza, an intermediate-density area covering the Reggio Emilia-Modena conurbation and a densely anthropized area developing along the coast of Rimini. Satellite-derived maps enabled the quantitative analysis of spatial and temporal features of urban growth and soil sealing, expressed as the ratio between C in built-up land and organic C in soils (Cc/Co). The three areas show substantial differences in C stock balance and soil sealing evolution. In Piacenza (Cc/Co=0.07 in 1993), although questioned by late industrial expansion and connected residential sprawl (Cc/Co growth by 38%), most of the new urbanisation spared the best rural soils. The Reggio Emilia-Modena conurbation, driven by the polycentricism of the area and the heterogeneity of economic sectors (Cc/Co rising from 0.08 to 0.14 from 1993 to 2014), balances sprawl and densification. Rimini, severely sealed since the 1960s (Cc/Co=0.23 in 1993), densifies its existing settlements and develops an industrial expansion of the hinterland, with Cc/Co growth accelerating from +15% before 2003 to +36% for the last decade. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Threats to North American Forests from Southern Pine Beetle with Warming Winters

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lesk, Corey; Coffel, Ethan; D'Amato, Anthony W.; Dodds, Kevin; Horton, Radley M.

2016-01-01

In coming decades, warmer winters are likely to lift range constraints on many cold-limited forest insects. Recent unprecedented expansion of the southern pine beetle (SPB, Dendroctonus frontalis) into New Jersey, New York, Connecticut, and Massachusetts in concert with warming annual temperature minima highlights the risk that this insect pest poses to the pine forests of the northern United States and Canada under continued climate change. Here we present the first projections of northward expansion in SPB-suitable climates using a statistical bioclimatic range modeling approach and current-generation general circulation model (GCM) output under the RCP 4.5 and 8.5 emissions scenarios. Our results show that by the middle of the 21st century, the climate is likely to be suitable for SPB expansion into vast areas of previously unaffected forests throughout the northeastern United States and into southeastern Canada. This scenario would pose a significant economic and ecological risk to the affected regions, including disruption oflocal ecosystem services, dramatic shifts in forest structure, and threats to native biodiversity.

Restoring the hydrologic response to pre-developed conditions in an urbanized headwater catchment: Reality or utopia?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wright, O.; Istanbulluoglu, E.

2012-12-01

The conversion of forested areas to impervious surfaces, lawns and pastures alters the natural hydrology of an area by increasing the flashiness of stormwater generated runoff, resulting in increased streamflow peaks and volumes. Currently, most of the stormwater from developed areas in the Puget Sound region remains uncontrolled. The lack of adequate stormwater facilities along with increasing urbanization and population growth illustrates the importance of understanding urban watershed behavior and best management practices (BMPs) that improve changes in hydrology. In this study, we developed a lumped urban ecohydrology model that represents vegetation dynamics, connects pervious and impervious surfaces and implements various BMP scenarios. The model is implemented in an urban headwater subcatchment located in the Newaukum Creek Basin. We evaluate the hydrologic impact of controlling runoff at the source and disconnecting impervious surfaces from the storm drain using rain barrels and bioretention cells. BMP scenarios consider the basin's land use/land coverage, the response of different impervious surface types, the potential for BMP placement, the size and drainage area for BMPs, and the mitigation needs to meet in-stream flow goals.

Trees, houses, and habitat: private forests at the wildland-urban interface.

Treesearch

Jonathan. Thompson

2004-01-01

How population growth and development affect forests is a shared concern among forest managers, policymakers, land use planners, and fish and wildlife specialists. Of particular interest is the "wildland-urban interface." It is characterized by expansion of residential and other developed land uses onto forest landscapes in a manner that threatens the...

Benefits of restoring ecosystem services in urban areas

Treesearch

T. Elmqvist; H. Setala; S.N. Handel; S. van der Ploeg; J. Aronson; J.N. Blignaut; E. Gomez-Baggethun; D.J. Nowak; J. Kronenberg; R. de Groot

2015-01-01

Cities are a key nexus of the relationship between people and nature and are huge centers of demand for ecosystem services and also generate extremely large environmental impacts. Current projections of rapid expansion of urban areas present fundamental challenges and also opportunities to design more livable, healthy and resilient cities (e.g. adaptation to climate...

Exploring the biogeophysical limits of global food production under different climate change scenarios

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

de Vrese, Philipp; Stacke, Tobias; Hagemann, Stefan

2018-04-01

An adapted Earth system model is used to investigate the limitations that future climate and water availability impose on the potential expansion and productivity of croplands. The model maximizes the cropland area under prevailing climate conditions and accounts for an optimized, sustainable irrigation practice, thus allowing us to consider the two-way feedback between climate and agriculture. For three greenhouse gas concentration scenarios (RCP2.6, RCP4.5, RCP8.5), we show that the total cropland area could be extended substantially throughout the 21st century, especially in South America and sub-Saharan Africa, where the rising water demand resulting from increasing temperatures can largely be met by increasing precipitation and irrigation rates. When accounting for the CO2 fertilization effect, only a few agricultural areas have to be abandoned owing to declines in productivity, while increasing temperatures allow for the expansion of croplands even into high northern latitudes. Without the CO2 fertilization effect there is no increase in the overall cropland fraction during the second half of the century but areal losses in increasingly water-stressed regions can be compensated for by an expansion in regions that were previously too cold. However, global yields are more sensitive and, without the benefits of CO2 fertilization, they may decrease when greenhouse gas concentrations exceed the RCP4.5 scenario. For certain regions the situation is even more concerning and guaranteeing food security in dry areas in Northern Africa, the Middle East and South Asia will become increasingly difficult, even for the idealized scenarios investigated in this study.

Survivial Strategies in Bacterial Range Expansions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Frey, Erwin

2014-03-01

Bacterial communities represent complex and dynamic ecological systems. Different environmental conditions as well as bacterial interactions determine the establishment and sustainability of bacterial diversity. In this talk we discuss the competition of three Escherichia coli strains during range expansions on agar plates. In this bacterial model system, a colicin E2 producing strain C competes with a colicin resistant strain R and with a colicin sensitive strain S for new territory. Genetic engineering allows us to tune the growth rates of the strains and to study distinct ecological scenarios. These scenarios may lead to either single-strain dominance, pairwise coexistence, or to the coexistence of all three strains. In order to elucidate the survival mechanisms of the individual strains, we also developed a stochastic agent-based model to capture the ecological scenarios in silico. In a combined theoretical and experimental approach we are able to show that the level of biodiversity depends crucially on the composition of the inoculum, on the relative growth rates of the three strains, and on the effective reach of colicin toxicity.

Forest cover loss and urban area expansion in the Conterminous Unites States in the first decade of the third millennium

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Huo, L. Z.; Boschetti, L.

2016-12-01

Remote sensing has been successfully used for global mapping of changes in forest cover, but further analysis is needed to characterize those changes - and in particular to classify the total loss of forest loss (Gross Forest Cover Loss, GFCL) based on the cause (natural/human) and on the outcome of the change (regeneration to forest/transition to non-forest) (Kurtz et al., 2010). While natural forest disturbances (fires, insect outbreaks) and timber harvest generally involve a temporary change of land cover (vegetated to non-vegetated), they generally do not involve a change in land use, and it is expected that the forest cover loss is followed by recovery. Change of land use, such as the conversion of forest to agricultural or urban areas, is instead generally irreversible. The proper classification of forest cover loss is therefore necessary to properly model the long term effects of the disturbances on the carbon budget. The present study presents a spatial and temporal analysis of the forest cover loss due to urban expansion in the Conterminous United States. The Landsat-derived University of Maryland Global Forest Change product (Hansen et al, 2013) is used to identify all the areas of gross forest cover loss, which are subsequently classified into disturbance type (deforestation, stand-replacing natural disturbances, industrial forest clearcuts) using an object-oriented time series analysis (Huo and Boschetti, 2015). A further refinement of the classification is conducted to identify the areas of transition from forest land use to urban land use based on ancillary datasets such as the National Land Cover Database (Homer et al., 2015) and contextual image analysis techniques (analysis of object proximity, and detection of shapes). Results showed that over 4000 km2of forest were lost to urban area expansion in CONUS over the 2001 to 2010 period (1.8% of the gross forest cover loss). Most of the urban growth was concentrated in large urban areas: Atlanta, GA ranked first, followed by Houston, TX; Charlotte, NC; Jacksonville, FL; and Raleigh, NC. At the state level, the top 10 states with urban growth due to forest loss were GA, FL, TX, NC, SC, AL, LA, MS, VA and WA, which cumulatively accounted for 76 % of the total forest cover loss due to urban growth.

Multi-criteria assessment of socio-environmental aspects in shrinking cities. Experiences from eastern Germany

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Schetke, Sophie; Haase, Dagmar

Demographic change and economic decline produce modified urban land use pattern and densities. Compared to the beginning of the 90s after the German reunification, nowadays massive housing and commercial vacancies followed by demolition and perforation come to pass in many cities of the former GDR. In consequence, a considerable surplus of urban brownfields has been created. Furthermore, the decline in the urban fabric affects social infrastructure and urban greenery of local neighbourhoods. Here, urban planning enters into 'uncharted territory' since it needs to assess the socio-environmental impact of shrinkage. In order to carry out such an evaluation quantitatively, a multi-criteriamore » assessment scheme (MCA) was developed and applied. Firstly, we identified infrastructure and land use changes related to vacancy and demolition. Secondly, demolition scenarios for the coming 20 years were applied in order to give an idea for a long-term monitoring approach at the local district level. A multi-criteria indicator matrix quantifies the socio-environmental impact on both urban greenery and residents. Using it, we set demolition scenarios against urban 'quality of life' targets. Empirical evidence comes from Leipzig, in eastern Germany, a representative case study for urban shrinkage processes. The results show that shrinkage implies socio-environmental changes of residential livelihoods, however, does not simply increase or decrease the overall urban quality of life. The integrated assessment of all indicators identifies environmental and social opportunities, as well as the challenges a shrinking city is faced with.« less

Drivers of contaminant levels in surface water of China during 2000-2030: Relative importance for illustrative home and personal care product chemicals.

PubMed

Zhu, Ying; Price, Oliver R; Kilgallon, John; Qi, Yi; Tao, Shu; Jones, Kevin C; Sweetman, Andrew J

2018-06-01

Water pollution are among the most critical problems in China and emerging contaminants in surface water have attracted rising attentions in recent years. There is great interest in China's future environmental quality as the national government has committed to a major action plan to improve surface water quality. This study presents methodologies to rank the importance of socioeconomic and environmental drivers to the chemical concentration in surface water during 2000-2030. A case study is conducted on triclosan, a home and personal care product (HPCP) ingredient. Different economic and discharge flow scenarios are considered. Urbanization and wastewater treatment connection rates in rural and urban areas are collected or projected for 2000-2030 for counties across China. The estimated usage increases from ca. 86 to 340 t. However, emissions decreases from 76 to 52 t during 2000-2030 under a modelled Organisation for Economic Co-operation (OECD) economic scenario because of the urbanization, migration and development of wastewater treatment plants/facilities (WWTPs). The estimated national median concentration of triclosan ranges 1.5-8.2 ng/L during 2000-2030 for different scenarios. It peaks in 2009 under the OECD and three of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), A2, B1 and B2 economic scenarios, but in 2025 under A1 economic scenario. Population distribution and surface water discharge flow rates are ranked as the top two drivers to triclosan levels in surface water over the 30 years. The development of urban WWTPs was the most important driver during 2000-2010 and the development of rural works is projected to be the most important in 2011-2030. Projections suggest discharges of ingredients in HPCPs - controlled by economic growth - should be balanced by the major expenditure programme on wastewater treatment in China. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Separation of land-use change induced signals from noise by means of evaluating perturbed RCM ensembles: Assessing the potential impacts of urbanization and deforestation in Central Vietnam

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Laux, Patrick; Nguyen, Phuong N. B.; Cullmann, Johannes; Kunstmann, Harald

2016-04-01

Regional climate models (RCMs) comprise both terrestrial and atmospheric compartments and thereby allowing to study land atmosphere feedbacks, and in particular the land-use and climate change impacts. In this study, a methodological framework is developed to separate the land use change induced signals in RCM simulations from noise caused by perturbed initial boundary conditions. The framework is applied for two different case studies in SE Asia, i.e. an urbanization and a deforestation scenario, which are implemented into the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model. The urbanization scenario is produced for Da Nang, one of the fastest growing cities in Central Vietnam, by converting the land-use in a 20 km, 14 km, and 9 km radius around the Da Nang meteorological station systematically from cropland to urban. Likewise, three deforestation scenarios are derived for Nong Son (Central Vietnam). Based on WRF ensemble simulations with perturbed initial conditions for 2010, the signal to-noise ratio (SNR) is calculated to identify areas with pronounced signals induced by LULCC. While clear and significant signals are found for air temperature, latent and sensible heat flux in the urbanization scenario (SNR values up to 24), the signals are not pronounced for deforestation (SNR values < 1). Albeit statistically significant signals are found for precipitation, low SNR values hinder scientifically sound inferences for climate change adaptation options. It is demonstrated that ensemble simulations with more than at least 5 ensemble members are required to derive robust LULCC adaptation strategies, particularly if precipitation is considered. This is rarely done in practice, thus potentially leading to erroneous estimates of the LULCC induced signals of water and energy fluxes, which are propagated through the regional climate - hydrological model modeling chains, and finally leading to unfavorable decision support.

Soil resources, land cover changes and rural areas: towards a spatial mismatch?

PubMed

Ferrara, Agostino; Salvati, Luca; Sabbi, Alberto; Colantoni, Andrea

2014-04-15

The present study analyzes the impact of long-term urban expansion on soil depletion in Emilia-Romagna, an agricultural-specialized region of northern Italy. Using settlement density maps at three points in time (1945, 1971 and 2001) dense and diffused urbanization trends were assessed and correlated with soil quality. Non-urbanized land decreased from 11.8% in 1945 to 6.3% in 2001. Urbanization dynamics between 1945 and 1971 reflect the increase of dense settlements around pre-existing urban centers. To the contrary, a discontinuous, low- and medium-density urban expansion along the road network and in the most fertile lowland areas was observed between 1971 and 2001. Overall, urbanization consumed soils with progressively higher quality. However, a diverging trend was observed in the two investigated time intervals: soil with high quality was occupied by compact and dense settlements during 1945-1971 and by discontinuous, medium- and low-density settlements during 1971-2001. These findings document the polarization in areas with low and high soil capital and may reflect disparities in agricultural production and increasing environmental degradation. Moreover, the analysis shows a diverging trend between land and soil consumption patterns suggesting that the edification of pervious land is an unreliable indicator of soil quality depletion. Taken together, the results of this study illustrate the (increasing) spatial mismatch between agricultural land and high-quality soils as a consequence of urbanization-driven landscape transformations and may inform measures to contain soil depletion driven by economic growth. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

A Streamlined Monitoring Framework for Low Impact Development Stormwater Management Practices - Cleveland

EPA Science Inventory

Suburban development surrounding extant urban cores provides watershed managers with two distinct scenarios. The first is abandonment of urban residential zones and problems associated with revitalization in areas where aquatic resources are in poor condition. The second is new d...

Modeling Impacts of Climate and Land Use Change on Ecosystem Processes to Quantify Exposure to Climate Change in Two Landscape Conservation Cooperatives

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Quackenbush, A.

2015-12-01

Urban land cover and associated impervious surface area is expected to increase by as much as 50% over the next few decades across substantial portions of the United States. In combination with urban expansion, increases in temperature and changes in precipitation are expected to impact ecosystems through changes in productivity, disturbance and hydrological properties. In this study, we use the NASA Terrestrial Observation and Prediction System Biogeochemical Cycle (TOPS-BGC) model to explore the combined impacts of urbanization and climate change on hydrologic dynamics (snowmelt, runoff, and evapotranspiration) and vegetation carbon uptake (gross productivity). The model is driven using land cover predictions from the Spatially Explicit Regional Growth Model (SERGoM) to quantify projected changes in impervious surface area, and climate projections from the 30 arc-second NASA Earth Exchange Downscaled Climate Projection (NEX-DCP30) dataset derived from the CMIP5 climate scenarios. We present the modeling approach and an analysis of the ecosystem impacts projected to occur in the US, with an emphasis on protected areas in the Great Northern and Appalachian Landscape Conservation Cooperatives (LCC). Under the ensemble average of the CMIP5 models and land cover change scenarios for both representative concentration pathways (RCPs) 4.5 and 8.5, both LCCs are predicted to experience increases in maximum and minimum temperatures as well as annual average precipitation. In the Great Northern LCC, this is projected to lead to increased annual runoff, especially under RCP 8.5. Earlier melt of the winter snow pack and increased evapotranspiration, however, reduces summer streamflow and soil water content, leading to a net reduction in vegetation productivity across much of the Great Northern LCC, with stronger trends occurring under RCP 8.5. Increased runoff is also projected to occur in the Appalachian LCC under both RCP 4.5 and 8.5. However, under RCP 4.5, the model predicts that the warmer wetter conditions will lead to increases in vegetation productivity across much of the Appalachian LCC, while under RCP 8.5, the effects of increased precipitation are not enough to keep up with increases in evapotranspiration, leading to projected reductions in vegetation productivity for this LCC by the end of this century.

A Multi-Hydro simulation for evaluation of the impacts of flood management at Heywood, RU.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Giangola-Murzyn, Agathe; Richard, Julien; Hennermann, Karl; Gires, Auguste; Tchiguirinskaia, Ioulia; Schertzer, Daniel

2013-04-01

The flooding problems in urban and peri-urban areas have more and more important impacts on city life. Indeed, with the expansion of the latter, the floodplains are more intensively used and floods will generate significant damage very expensive. In the aim to reduce these costs and facilitate a return to normal faster after the flood, the FP7 SMARTeST project aims to provide users of these areas a guide to help them choose the most appropriate protection measures. It is in this context that the Multi-Hydro model has been developed and improved in the Ecole des Ponts ParisTech. This model consists into a coupling between four modules (relying on existing open source and widely validated physically based model): one for the rainfall scenario generation, one for the surface processes, one for the subsurface processes and one for the load of the sewer system. This structure of coupling allows to represent all the parts of the water's path from the surface to the sewer system's pipes and to the soil of the considered catchment and it allows to disconnect one element of the coupling system if it's necessary. Moreover, this model uses some GIS data as the elevation, the land use, the soil description and the sewer system description which can be managed by a dedicated open source SIG allowing to use directly the data in the model. The Multi-Hydro model has been used on a street of Heywood, Rochdale, Greater Manchester urban area. This residential street has known some important events during this last 10 years. Thus, Multi-Hydro has been used to evaluate the effects of the implementation of protection measures supposed to reduce the damages of the flood: a storage basin, located between Wilton Grove and the Egerton street and two barriers across the streets. For a given event, NIMROD radar data have been used to reproduce the flood. Then, the protective measures were put in place virtually. Analysis of water height maps obtained with Multi-Hydro allowed better understand and better assess the hydrological behavior of étidié neighborhood. Thus, the early assumptions about the location of the barriers have proved misguided. The results and the multiplication of the protection scenarios could thus permit to improve protection strategy in the studied streets.

An u-Service Model Based on a Smart Phone for Urban Computing Environments

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cho, Yongyun; Yoe, Hyun

In urban computing environments, all of services should be based on the interaction between humans and environments around them, which frequently and ordinarily in home and office. This paper propose an u-service model based on a smart phone for urban computing environments. The suggested service model includes a context-aware and personalized service scenario development environment that can instantly describe user's u-service demand or situation information with smart devices. To do this, the architecture of the suggested service model consists of a graphical service editing environment for smart devices, an u-service platform, and an infrastructure with sensors and WSN/USN. The graphic editor expresses contexts as execution conditions of a new service through a context model based on ontology. The service platform deals with the service scenario according to contexts. With the suggested service model, an user in urban computing environments can quickly and easily make u-service or new service using smart devices.

Impact of Redevelopment Projects on Waste Water Infrastructure

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bhave, Prashant; Rahate, Sarvesh

2018-05-01

In the last few decades there has been a tremendous increase in urban population globally. Metropolitan cities in India are experiencing rapid change in their population due to migration from rural to urban areas. Due to limited land Mumbai city is experiencing vertical growth in the form of redevelopment projects, signifying a change in population density. Wastewater collection systems greatly contribute to the cost of the overall municipal sewerage system. Present study is an attempt to understand the impact of the redevelopment activities on the wastewater infrastructure. Existing sewerage network of an urban area in Central Mumbai was redesigned and analysed for four different planning scenarios with Bentley's SewerGEM. Results have shown significant change in diameters of the conduits within the sewer network, thus making it inefficient by 13, 19, 31 and 42% with each changing scenario. The results and analysis derived from the study are significant with respect to the urban town planners, developing solutions in alleviating the rising problem of sewer overflows and the economic impact being caused.

Analysis of sheltering and evacuation strategies for an urban nuclear detonation scenario.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Yoshimura, Ann S.; Brandt, Larry D.

2009-05-01

Development of an effective strategy for shelter and evacuation is among the most important planning tasks in preparation for response to a low yield, nuclear detonation in an urban area. This study examines shelter-evacuate policies and effectiveness focusing on a 10 kt scenario in Los Angeles. The goal is to provide technical insights that can support development of urban response plans. Results indicate that extended shelter-in-place can offer the most robust protection when high quality shelter exists. Where less effective shelter is available and the fallout radiation intensity level is high, informed evacuation at the appropriate time can substantially reducemore » the overall dose to personnel. However, uncertainties in the characteristics of the fallout region and in the exit route can make evacuation a risky strategy. Analyses indicate that only a relatively small fraction of the total urban population may experience significant dose reduction benefits from even a well-informed evacuation plan.« less

Conservation planning under uncertainty in urban development and vegetation dynamics

PubMed Central

Carmel, Yohay

2018-01-01

Systematic conservation planning is a framework for optimally locating and prioritizing areas for conservation. An often-noted shortcoming of most conservation planning studies is that they do not address future uncertainty. The selection of protected areas that are intended to ensure the long-term persistence of biodiversity is often based on a snapshot of the current situation, ignoring processes such as climate change. Scenarios, in the sense of being accounts of plausible futures, can be utilized to identify conservation area portfolios that are robust to future uncertainty. We compared three approaches for utilizing scenarios in conservation area selection: considering a full set of scenarios (all-scenarios portfolio), assuming the realization of specific scenarios, and a reference strategy based on the current situation (current distributions portfolio). Our objective was to compare the robustness of these approaches in terms of their relative performance across future scenarios. We focused on breeding bird species in Israel’s Mediterranean region. We simulated urban development and vegetation dynamics scenarios 60 years into the future using DINAMICA-EGO, a cellular-automata simulation model. For each scenario, we mapped the target species’ available habitat distribution, identified conservation priority areas using the site-selection software MARXAN, and constructed conservation area portfolios using the three aforementioned strategies. We then assessed portfolio performance based on the number of species for which representation targets were met in each scenario. The all-scenarios portfolio consistently outperformed the other portfolios, and was more robust to ‘errors’ (e.g., when an assumed specific scenario did not occur). On average, the all-scenarios portfolio achieved representation targets for five additional species compared with the current distributions portfolio (approximately 33 versus 28 species). Our findings highlight the importance of considering a broad and meaningful set of scenarios, rather than relying on the current situation, the expected occurrence of specific scenarios, or the worst-case scenario. PMID:29621330

Conservation planning under uncertainty in urban development and vegetation dynamics.

PubMed

Troupin, David; Carmel, Yohay

2018-01-01

Systematic conservation planning is a framework for optimally locating and prioritizing areas for conservation. An often-noted shortcoming of most conservation planning studies is that they do not address future uncertainty. The selection of protected areas that are intended to ensure the long-term persistence of biodiversity is often based on a snapshot of the current situation, ignoring processes such as climate change. Scenarios, in the sense of being accounts of plausible futures, can be utilized to identify conservation area portfolios that are robust to future uncertainty. We compared three approaches for utilizing scenarios in conservation area selection: considering a full set of scenarios (all-scenarios portfolio), assuming the realization of specific scenarios, and a reference strategy based on the current situation (current distributions portfolio). Our objective was to compare the robustness of these approaches in terms of their relative performance across future scenarios. We focused on breeding bird species in Israel's Mediterranean region. We simulated urban development and vegetation dynamics scenarios 60 years into the future using DINAMICA-EGO, a cellular-automata simulation model. For each scenario, we mapped the target species' available habitat distribution, identified conservation priority areas using the site-selection software MARXAN, and constructed conservation area portfolios using the three aforementioned strategies. We then assessed portfolio performance based on the number of species for which representation targets were met in each scenario. The all-scenarios portfolio consistently outperformed the other portfolios, and was more robust to 'errors' (e.g., when an assumed specific scenario did not occur). On average, the all-scenarios portfolio achieved representation targets for five additional species compared with the current distributions portfolio (approximately 33 versus 28 species). Our findings highlight the importance of considering a broad and meaningful set of scenarios, rather than relying on the current situation, the expected occurrence of specific scenarios, or the worst-case scenario.

Urban compaction or dispersion? An air quality modelling study

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Martins, Helena

2012-07-01

Urban sprawl is altering the landscape, with current trends pointing to further changes in land use that will, in turn, lead to changes in population, energy consumption, atmospheric emissions and air quality. Urban planners have debated on the most sustainable urban structure, with arguments in favour and against urban compaction and dispersion. However, it is clear that other areas of expertise have to be involved. Urban air quality and human exposure to atmospheric pollutants as indicators of urban sustainability can contribute to the discussion, namely through the study of the relation between urban structure and air quality. This paper addresses the issue by analysing the impacts of alternative urban growth patterns on the air quality of Porto urban region in Portugal, through a 1-year simulation with the MM5-CAMx modelling system. This region has been experiencing one of the highest European rates of urban sprawl, and at the same time presents a poor air quality. As part of the modelling system setup, a sensitivity study was conducted regarding different land use datasets and spatial distribution of emissions. Two urban development scenarios were defined, SPRAWL and COMPACT, together with their new land use and emission datasets; then meteorological and air quality simulations were performed. Results reveal that SPRAWL land use changes resulted in an average temperature increase of 0.4 °C, with local increases reaching as high as 1.5 °C. SPRAWL results also show an aggravation of PM10 annual average values and an increase in the exceedances to the daily limit value. For ozone, differences between scenarios were smaller, with SPRAWL presenting larger concentration differences than COMPACT. Finally, despite the higher concentrations found in SPRAWL, population exposure to the pollutants is higher for COMPACT because more inhabitants are found in areas of highest concentration levels.

Producing a satellite-derived map and modelling Spartina alterniflora expansion for Willapa Bay in Washington State

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Berlin, Cynthia Jane

1998-12-01

This research addresses the identification of the areal extent of the intertidal wetlands of Willapa Bay, Washington, and the evaluation of the potential for exotic Spartina alterniflora (smooth cordgrass) expansion in the bay using a spatial geographic approach. It is hoped that the results will address not only the management needs of the study area but provide a research design that may be applied to studies of other coastal wetlands. Four satellite images, three Landsat Multi-Spectral (MSS) and one Thematic Mapper (TM), are used to derive a map showing areas of water, low, middle and high intertidal, and upland. Two multi-date remote sensing mapping techniques are assessed: a supervised classification using density-slicing and an unsupervised classification using an ISODATA algorithm. Statistical comparisons are made between the resultant derived maps and the U.S.G.S. topographic maps for the Willapa Bay area. The potential for Spartina expansion in the bay is assessed using a sigmoidal (logistic) growth model and a spatial modelling procedure for four possible growth scenarios: without management controls (Business-as-Usual), with moderate management controls (e.g. harvesting to eliminate seed setting), under a hypothetical increase in the growth rate that may reflect favorable environmental changes, and under a hypothetical decrease in the growth rate that may reflect aggressive management controls. Comparisons for the statistics of the two mapping techniques suggest that although the unsupervised classification method performed satisfactorily, the supervised classification (density-slicing) method provided more satisfactory results. Results from the modelling of potential Spartina expansion suggest that Spartina expansion will proceed rapidly for the Business-as-Usual and hypothetical increase in the growth rate scenario, and at a slower rate for the elimination of seed setting and hypothetical decrease in the growth rate scenarios, until all potential habitat is filled.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Güneralp, Burak; Zhou, Yuyu; Ürge-Vorsatz, Diana

Urban areas play a significant role in planetary sustainability. While the scale of impending urbanization is well acknowledged, we have a limited understanding on how urban forms will change and what their impact will be on building energy use. Using both top-down and bottom-up approaches and scenarios, we examine building energy use, specifically, for heating and cooling. We also assess associated cobenefits and trade-offs with human well-being. Globally, the energy use for heating and cooling by midcentury will reach anywhere from about 45 EJ/yr to 59 EJ/yr (respectively, increases of 5% to 40% over the 2010 estimate). Most of thismore » variability is due to the uncertainty in future urban forms of rapidly growing cities in Asia and, particularly, in China. Compact urban development overall leads to less energy use in urban environments. Delaying the retrofit of the existing built environment leads to more savings in building energy use. Potential for savings in the energy use is greatest in China when coupled with efficiency gains. Advanced efficiency makes the least difference compared to the business-as-usual scenario in energy use for heating and cooling in South Asia and Sub-Saharan Africa but significantly contribute to energy savings in North America and Europe. A systemic effort that focuses on both urban form and energy-efficient technologies, but also accounts for potential co-benefits and trade-offs, can contribute to both local and global sustainability. Particularly in mega-urban regions, such efforts can improve local environments for billions of urban residents and contribute to mitigating climate change by reducing energy use in urban areas and associated greenhouse gas emissions.« less

Zero Benefit: Estimating the Effect of Zero Tolerance Discipline Polices on Racial Disparities in School Discipline

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Hoffman, Stephen

2014-01-01

This study estimates the effect of zero tolerance disciplinary policies on racial disparities in school discipline in an urban district. Capitalizing on a natural experiment, the abrupt expansion of zero tolerance discipline policies in a mid-sized urban school district, the study demonstrates that Black students in the district were…

A multi-scalar approach to theorizing socio-ecological dynamics of urban residential landscapes

Treesearch

Rinku Roy Chowdhury; Kelli Larson; Morgan Grove; Colin Polsky; Elizabeth Cook; Jeffrey Onsted; Laura Ogden

2011-01-01

Urban residential expansion increasingly drives land use, land cover and ecological changes worldwide, yet social science theories explaining such change remain under-developed. Existing theories often focus on processes occurring at one scale, while ignoring other scales. Emerging evidence from four linked U.S. research sites suggests it is essential to examine...

Racial Insurgency, the State, and Welfare Expansion: Local and National Level Evidence from the Postwar United States.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Isaac, Larry; Kelly, William R.

1981-01-01

This article addresses the relationship between insurgent political action and state-supported social services, with particular emphasis on the relationship between urban riots and welfare. Findings from analysis of activism and welfare since the Second World War indicate that urban riots played an important role nationally in short-term expansion…

Land use planning using transit oriented development concept: Case study: Salaya station

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jarritthai, Supanee; Techpeeraparnich, Wasaporn

2017-10-01

The urban sprawl of Bangkok has increased with a motorization rate along with the expansion of the road network to adjacent cities. Nakhonpathom province, located at the southern edge of Bangkok has been affected by the urban sprawl. One of Nakhonpathom's Districts named "Salaya" Salaya has been quickly urbanized due to the establishment of many large academic institutes, such as universities, colleges and high schools as well as many commercial shopping malls. The period of 2013-2017, the Thai government introduced sustainable urban planning policy and promoted the use of public transportation systems. The Light Red Line railway extension of the Bangkok Metro Transit system will soon be constructed and the current Salaya Station will be replaced with new station. Many railway expansion projects will be built, should be designed by using transit-oriented development (TOD) scheme. This paper explores demographic information of the area, the demands of the community and relevant stakeholders for designing of the area using TOD. The proposed land use planning is designed based on the existing condition of the area as much as possible to meet the TOD standard and stakeholders' requirement. The result revealed that the guidelines of transit oriented development concept were of importance not only for planning of urban land use, supporting public transport, but also improving the quality of life.

Inventories and reduction scenarios of urban waste-related greenhouse gas emissions for management potential.

PubMed

Yang, Dewei; Xu, Lingxing; Gao, Xueli; Guo, Qinghai; Huang, Ning

2018-06-01

Waste-related greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions have been recognized as one of the prominent contributors to global warming. Current urban waste regulations, however, face increasing challenges from stakeholders' trade-offs and hierarchic management. A combined method, i.e., life cycle inventories and scenario analysis, was employed to investigate waste-related GHG emissions during 1995-2015 and to project future scenarios of waste-driven carbon emissions by 2050 in a pilot low carbon city, Xiamen, China. The process-based carbon analysis of waste generation (prevention and separation), transportation (collection and transfer) and disposal (treatment and recycling) shows that the main contributors of carbon emissions are associated with waste disposal processes, solid waste, the municipal sector and Xiamen Mainland. Significant spatial differences of waste-related CO 2e emissions were observed between Xiamen Island and Xiamen Mainland using the carbon intensity and density indexes. An uptrend of waste-related CO 2e emissions from 2015 to 2050 is identified in the business as usual, waste disposal optimization, waste reduction and the integrated scenario, with mean annual growth rates of 8.86%, 8.42%, 6.90% and 6.61%, respectively. The scenario and sensitivity analysis imply that effective waste-related carbon reduction requires trade-offs among alternative strategies, actions and stakeholders in a feasible plan, and emphasize a priority of waste prevention and collection in Xiamen. Our results could benefit to the future modeling of urban multiple wastes and life-cycle carbon control in similar cities within and beyond China. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

The ecological impact of city lighting scenarios: exploring gap crossing thresholds for urban bats.

PubMed

Hale, James D; Fairbrass, Alison J; Matthews, Thomas J; Davies, Gemma; Sadler, Jon P

2015-02-02

As the global population urbanizes, dramatic changes are expected in city lighting and the urban form, which may threaten the functioning of urban ecosystems and the services they deliver. However, little is known about the ecological impact of lighting in different urban contexts. Movement is an important ecological process that can be disrupted by artificial lighting. We explored the impact of lighting on gap crossing for Pipistrellus pipistrellus, a species of bat (Chiroptera) common within UK cities. We aimed to determine whether the probability of crossing gaps in tree cover varied with crossing distance and lighting level, through stratified field surveys. We then used the resulting data on barrier thresholds to model the landscape resistance due to lighting across an entire city and explored the potential impact of scenarios for future changes to street lighting. The level of illumination required to create a barrier effect reduced as crossing distance increased. For those gaps where crossing was recorded, bats selected the darker parts of gaps. Heavily built parts of the case study city were associated with large and brightly lit gaps, and spatial models indicate movement would be highly restricted in these areas. Under a scenario for brighter street lighting, the area of accessible land cover was further reduced in heavily built parts of the city. We believe that this is the first study to demonstrate how lighting may create resistance to species movement throughout an entire city. That connectivity in urban areas is being disrupted for a relatively common species raises questions about the impacts on less tolerant groups and the resilience of bat communities in urban centres. However, this mechanistic approach raises the possibility that some ecological function could be restored in these areas through the strategic dimming of lighting and narrowing of gaps. © 2015 The Authors. Global Change Biology Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Interactions between urban heat islands and heat waves

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhao, Lei; Oppenheimer, Michael; Zhu, Qing; Baldwin, Jane W.; Ebi, Kristie L.; Bou-Zeid, Elie; Guan, Kaiyu; Liu, Xu

2018-03-01

Heat waves (HWs) are among the most damaging climate extremes to human society. Climate models consistently project that HW frequency, severity, and duration will increase markedly over this century. For urban residents, the urban heat island (UHI) effect further exacerbates the heat stress resulting from HWs. Here we use a climate model to investigate the interactions between the UHI and HWs in 50 cities in the United States under current climate and future warming scenarios. We examine UHI2m (defined as urban-rural difference in 2m-height air temperature) and UHIs (defined as urban-rural difference in radiative surface temperature). Our results show significant sensitivity of the interaction between UHI and HWs to local background climate and warming scenarios. Sensitivity also differs between daytime and nighttime. During daytime, cities in the temperate climate region show significant synergistic effects between UHI and HWs in current climate, with an average of 0.4 K higher UHI2m or 2.8 K higher UHIs during HWs than during normal days. These synergistic effects, however, diminish in future warmer climates. In contrast, the daytime synergistic effects for cities in dry regions are insignificant in the current climate, but emerge in future climates. At night, the synergistic effects are similar across climate regions in the current climate, and are stronger in future climate scenarios. We use a biophysical factorization method to disentangle the mechanisms behind the interactions between UHI and HWs that explain the spatial-temporal patterns of the interactions. Results show that the difference in the increase of urban versus rural evaporation and enhanced anthropogenic heat emissions (air conditioning energy use) during HWs are key contributors to the synergistic effects during daytime. The contrast in water availability between urban and rural land plays an important role in determining the contribution of evaporation. At night, the enhanced release of stored and anthropogenic heat during HWs are the primary contributors to the synergistic effects.

Influence of urban shapes on environmental noise: a case study in Aracaju-Brazil.

PubMed

Guedes, Italo C Montalvão; Bertoli, Stelamaris R; Zannin, Paulo H T

2011-12-15

This paper discusses the results of a study about the influence of urban shapes on environmental noise in the city of Aracaju (Brazil). The study, which involved in situ measurements and acoustic simulations using SoundPLAN software, began with an analysis of the current acoustic scenario, followed by the creation and simulation of hypothetical scenarios in as yet unoccupied sectors of the region under study. The acoustic modeling and simulations were based on measurements of equivalent-continuous sound pressure level, LAeq, and vehicle flow data, and on the region's geometrics. The results reveal that the physical characteristics of the urban shape, such as construction density, the existence of open spaces, and the shape and physical position of buildings exert a significant influence on environmental noise. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

ALTERNATIVE URBANIZATION SCENARIOS FOR AN AGRICULTURAL WATERSHED: DESIGN CRITERIA, SOCIAL CONSTRAINTS, AND EFFECTS ON GROUNDWATER AND SURFACE WATER SYSTEMS

EPA Science Inventory

Agricultural landscapes are being urbanized throughout the United States, resulting in the degradation of aquatic systems. Fundamental changes in watershed hydrology result from the construction of impervious surfaces (roofs, streets, sidewalks). As impervious surface area ...

Modelling and optimization of land use/land cover change in a developing urban catchment.

PubMed

Xu, Ping; Gao, Fei; He, Junchao; Ren, Xinxin; Xi, Weijin

2017-06-01

The impacts of land use/cover change (LUCC) on hydrological processes and water resources are mainly reflected in changes in runoff and pollutant variations. Low impact development (LID) technology is utilized as an effective strategy to control urban stormwater runoff and pollution in the urban catchment. In this study, the impact of LUCC on runoff and pollutants in an urbanizing catchment of Guang-Ming New District in Shenzhen, China, were quantified using a dynamic rainfall-runoff model with the EPA Storm Water Management Model (SWMM). Based on the simulations and observations, the main objectives of this study were: (1) to evaluate the catchment runoff and pollutant variations with LUCC, (2) to select and optimize the appropriate layout of LID in a planning scenario for reducing the growth of runoff and pollutants under LUCC, (3) to assess the optimal planning schemes for land use/cover. The results showed that compared to 2013, the runoff volume, peak flow and pollution load of suspended solids (SS), and chemical oxygen demand increased by 35.1%, 33.6% and 248.5%, and 54.5% respectively in a traditional planning scenario. The assessment result of optimal planning of land use showed that annual rainfall control of land use for an optimal planning scenario with LID technology was 65%, and SS pollutant load reduction efficiency 65.6%.

The surface urban heat island response to urban expansion: A panel analysis for the conterminous United States

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Li, Xiaoma; Zhou, Yuyu; Asrar, Ghassem R.

Abstract: Urban heat island (UHI), a major concern worldwide, affects human health and energy use. With current and anticipated rapid urbanization, improved understanding of the response of UHI to urbanization is important for impact analysis and developing effective adaptation measures and mitigation strategies. Current studies mainly focus on a single or a few big cities and knowledge on the response of UHI to urbanization for large areas is very limited. Modelling UHI caused by urbanization for large areas that encompass multiple metropolitans remains a major scientific challenge/opportunity. As a major indicator of urbanization, urban area size lends itself well formore » representation in prognostic models to investigate the impacts of urbanization on UHI and the related socioeconomic and environmental effects. However, we have little knowledge on how UHI responds to the increase of urban area size, namely urban expansion, and its spatial and temporal variation over large areas. In this study, we investigated the relationship between surface UHI (SUHI) and urban area size in the climate and ecological context, and its spatial and temporal variations, based on a panel analysis of about 5000 urban areas of 10 km2 or larger, in the conterminous U.S. We found statistically significant positive relationship between SUHI and urban area size, and doubling the urban area size led to a SUHI increase of higher than 0.7 °C. The response of SUHI to the increase of urban area size shows spatial and temporal variations, with stronger SUHI increase in the Northern region of U.S., and during daytime and summer. Urban area size alone can explain as much as 87% of the variance of SUHI among cities studied, but with large spatial and temporal variations. Urban area size shows higher association with SUHI in regions where the thermal characteristics of land cover surrounding the urban are more homogeneous, such as in Eastern U.S., and in the summer months. This study provides a practical approach for large-scale assessment and modeling of the impact of urbanization on SUHI, both spatially and temporally, for developing mitigation/adaptation measures, especially in anticipated warmer climate conditions for the rest of this century.« less

Dynamic EROI Assessment of the IPCC 21st Century Electricity Production Scenario

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Neumeyer, Charles; Goldston, Robert

Abstract: The Energy Return on Investment (EROI) is an important measure of the energy gain of an electrical power generating facility that is typically evaluated based on the life cycle energy balance of a single facility. The EROI concept can be extended to cover a collection of facilities that comprise a complete power system and used to assess the expansion and evolution of a power system as it transitions from one portfolio mix of technologies to another over time. In this study we develop a dynamic EROI model that simulates the evolution of a power system and we perform anmore » EROI simulation of one of the electricity production scenarios developed under the auspices of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) covering the global supply of electricity in the 21st century. Our analytic tool provides the means for evaluation of dynamic EROI based on arbitrary time-dependent demand scenarios by modeling the required expansion of power generation, including the plowback needed for new construction and to replace facilities as they are retired. The results provide insight into the level of installed and delivered power, above and beyond basic consumer demand, that is required to support construction during expansion, as well as the supplementary power that may be required if plowback constraints are imposed. In addition, sensitivity to EROI parameters, and the impact of energy storage efficiency are addressed.« less

Dynamic EROI Assessment of the IPCC 21st Century Electricity Production Scenario

DOE PAGES

Neumeyer, Charles; Goldston, Robert

2016-04-28

Abstract: The Energy Return on Investment (EROI) is an important measure of the energy gain of an electrical power generating facility that is typically evaluated based on the life cycle energy balance of a single facility. The EROI concept can be extended to cover a collection of facilities that comprise a complete power system and used to assess the expansion and evolution of a power system as it transitions from one portfolio mix of technologies to another over time. In this study we develop a dynamic EROI model that simulates the evolution of a power system and we perform anmore » EROI simulation of one of the electricity production scenarios developed under the auspices of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) covering the global supply of electricity in the 21st century. Our analytic tool provides the means for evaluation of dynamic EROI based on arbitrary time-dependent demand scenarios by modeling the required expansion of power generation, including the plowback needed for new construction and to replace facilities as they are retired. The results provide insight into the level of installed and delivered power, above and beyond basic consumer demand, that is required to support construction during expansion, as well as the supplementary power that may be required if plowback constraints are imposed. In addition, sensitivity to EROI parameters, and the impact of energy storage efficiency are addressed.« less

Potential Influence of Climate-Induced Vegetation Shifts on Future Land Use and Associated Land Carbon Fluxes in Northern Eurasia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kicklighter, D. W.; Cai, Y.; Zhuang, Q.; Parfenova, E. I.; Paltsev, S.; Sokolov, A. P.; Melillo, J. M.; Reilly, J. M.; Tchebakova, N. M.; Lu, X.

2014-12-01

Climate change will alter ecosystem metabolism and may lead to a redistribution of vegetation and changes in fire regimes in Northern Eurasia over the 21st century. Land management decisions will interact with these climate-driven changes to reshape the region's landscape. Here we present an assessment of the potential consequences of climate change on land use and associated land carbon sink activity for Northern Eurasia in the context of climate-induced vegetation shifts. Under a 'business-as-usual' scenario, climate-induced vegetation shifts allow expansion of areas devoted to food crop production (15%) and pastures (39%) over the 21st century. Under a climate stabilization scenario, climate-induced vegetation shifts permit expansion of areas devoted to cellulosic biofuel production (25%) and pastures (21%), but reduce the expansion of areas devoted to food crop production by 10%. In both climate scenarios, vegetation shifts further reduce the areas devoted to timber production by 6-8% over this same time period. Fire associated with climate-induced vegetation shifts causes the region to become more of a carbon source than if no vegetation shifts occur. Consideration of the interactions between climate-induced vegetation shifts and human activities through a modeling framework has provided clues to how humans may be able to adapt to a changing world and identified the tradeoffs, including unintended consequences, associated with proposed climate/energy policies.

Collaborative development of land use change scenarios for analysing hydro-meteorological risk

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Malek, Žiga; Glade, Thomas

2015-04-01

Simulating future land use changes remains a difficult task, due to uncontrollable and uncertain driving forces of change. Scenario development emerged as a tool to address these limitations. Scenarios offer the exploration of possible futures and environmental consequences, and enable the analysis of possible decisions. Therefore, there is increasing interest of both decision makers and researchers to apply scenarios when studying future land use changes and their consequences. The uncertainties related to generating land use change scenarios are among others defined by the accuracy of data, identification and quantification of driving forces, and the relation between expected future changes and the corresponding spatial pattern. To address the issue of data and intangible driving forces, several studies have applied collaborative, participatory techniques when developing future scenarios. The involvement of stakeholders can lead to incorporating a broader spectrum of professional values and experience. Moreover, stakeholders can help to provide missing data, improve detail, uncover mistakes, and offer alternatives. Thus, collaborative scenarios can be considered as more reliable and relevant. Collaborative scenario development has been applied to study a variety of issues in environmental sciences on different spatial and temporal scales. Still, these participatory approaches are rarely spatially explicit, making them difficult to apply when analysing changes to hydro-meteorological risk on a local scale. Spatial explicitness is needed to identify potentially critical areas of land use change, leading to locations where the risk might increase. In order to allocate collaboratively developed scenarios of land change, we combined participatory modeling with geosimulation in a multi-step scenario generation framework. We propose a framework able to develop scenarios that are plausible, can overcome data inaccessibility, address intangible and external driving forces of land change, and is transferable to other case study areas with different land use change processes and consequences. The framework starts with the involvement of stakeholders where driving forces of land use change are being studied by performing interviews and group discussions. In order to bridge the gap between qualitative methods and conventional geospatial techniques, we applied cognitive mapping and the Drivers-Pressures-State-Impact and Response framework (DPSIR) to develop a conceptual land use change model. This was later transformed into a spatially explicit land use change model based on remote sensing data, GIS and cellular automata spatial allocation. The methodology was developed and applied in a study area in the eastern Italian Alps, where the uncertainties regarding future urban expansion are high. Later, we transferred it to a study area in the Romanian Carpathians, where the identified prevailing process of land use change is deforestation. Both areas are subject to hydro-meteorological risk, posing a need for the analysis of the possible future spatial pattern and locations of land use change. The resulting scenarios enabled us, to point at identifying hot-spots of land use change, serving as a possible input for a risk assessment.

Integrating urbanization into landscape-level ecological assessments.

Treesearch

Jeffrey D. Kline; Alissa Moses; Ralph J. Alig

2001-01-01

Economists and ecologists are often asked to collaborate on landscape-level analyses designed to jointly assess economic and ecological conditions resulting from environmental policy scenarios. This trend toward multidisciplinary projects, coupled with the growing use of geographic information systems, has led to the development policy scenarios. This trend toward...

Enhancing future resilience in urban drainage system: Green versus grey infrastructure.

PubMed

Dong, Xin; Guo, Hao; Zeng, Siyu

2017-11-01

In recent years, the concept transition from fail-safe to safe-to-fail makes the application of resilience analysis popular in urban drainage systems (UDSs) with various implications and quantifications. However, most existing definitions of UDSs resilience are confined to the severity of flooding, while uncertainties from climate change and urbanization are not considered. In this research, we take into account the functional variety, topological complexity, and disturbance randomness of UDSs and define a new formula of resilience based on three parts of system severity, i.e. social severity affected by urban flooding, environmental severity caused by sewer overflow, and technological severity considering the safe operation of downstream facilities. A case study in Kunming, China is designed to compare the effect of green and grey infrastructure strategies on the enhancement of system resilience together with their costs. Different system configurations with green roofs, permeable pavement and storage tanks are compared by scenario analysis with full consideration of future uncertainties induced by urbanization and climate change. The research contributes to the development of sustainability assessment of urban drainage system with consideration of the resilience of green and grey infrastructure under future change. Finding the response measures with high adaptation across a variety of future scenarios is crucial to establish sustainable urban drainage system in a long term. Copyright © 2017. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

Indicators for Assessing Climate Change Resilience Resulting from Emplacement of Green Infrastructure Projects Across an Urban Landscape

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Parish, E. S.; Omitaomu, O.; Sylvester, L.; Nugent, P.

2015-12-01

Many U.S. cities are exploring the potential of using green infrastructure (e.g., porous pavements, green roofs, street planters) to reduce urban storm water runoff, which can be both be a nuisance and costly to treat. While tools exist to measure local runoff changes resulting from individual green infrastructure (GI) projects, most municipalities currently have no method of analyzing the collective impact of GI projects on urban stormwater systems under future rainfall scenarios and impervious surface distribution patterns. Using the mid-sized city of Knoxville, Tennessee as a case study, we propose a set of indicators that can be used to monitor and analyze the collective effects of GI emplacement on urban storm water runoff volumes as well as to quantify potential co-benefits of GI projects (e.g., urban heat island reduction, reduced stream scouring) under different climate projection ensembles and population growth scenarios. These indicators are intended to help the city prioritize GI projects as opportunities arise, as well as to track the effectiveness of GI implementation over time. We explore the aggregation of these indicators across different spatial scales (e.g., plot, neighborhood, watershed, city) in order to assess potential changes in climate change resilience resulting from the collective implementation of GI projects across an urban landscape.

Status of NASA Satellite, Field Observations, and Numerical Modeling Addressing the Impact of Urbanization on Short and Long Term Precipitation Variability

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Shepherd, J. Marshall; Manyin, Michael; Burian, Steve; Garza, Carlos

2004-01-01

Howard (1833a) made the first documented observation of a temperature difference between an urban area and its rural environment. Manley (1958) termed this contrast the "urban heat island (UHI)". The UHI has now become a widely acknowledged, observed, and researched phenomenon because of its broad implications. It is estimated that by the year 2025, 60% of the world's population will live in cities (UNFP, 1999). In the United States, the current urban growth rate is approximately 12.5%, with 80% currently living in urban areas. As cities continue to grow, urban sprawl creates unique problems related to land use, transportation, agriculture, housing, pollution, and development for policymakers. Urban expansion and its associated urban heat islands also have measurable impacts on weather and climate processes.

Understanding Land System Change Through Scenario-Based Simulations: A Case Study from the Drylands in Northern China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liu, Zhifeng; Verburg, Peter H.; Wu, Jianguo; He, Chunyang

2017-03-01

The drylands in northern China are expected to face dramatic land system change in the context of socioeconomic development and environmental conservation. Recent studies have addressed changes of land cover with socioeconomic development in the drylands in northern China. However, the changes in land use intensity and the potential role of environmental conservation measures have yet to be adequately examined. Given the importance of land management intensity to the ecological conditions and regional sustainability, our study projected land system change in Hohhot city in the drylands in northern China from 2013 to 2030. Here, land systems are defined as combinations of land cover and land use intensity. Using the CLUMondo model, we simulated land system change in Hohhot under three scenarios: a scenario following historical trends, a scenario with strong socioeconomic and land use planning, and a scenario focused on achieving environmental conservation targets. Our results showed that Hohhot is likely to experience agricultural intensification and urban growth under all three scenarios. The agricultural intensity and the urban growth rate were much higher under the historical trend scenario compared to those with more planning interventions. The dynamics of grasslands depend strongly on projections of livestock and other claims on land resources. In the historical trend scenario, intensively grazed grasslands increase whereas a large amount of the current area of grasslands with livestock converts to forest under the scenario with strong planning. Strong conversion from grasslands with livestock and extensive cropland to semi-natural grasslands was estimated under the conservation scenario. The findings provide an input into discussions about environmental management, planning and sustainable land system design for Hohhot.

Scenario-based carbon footprint inventory tool for urban sustainable development decision support: The Cincinnati Case Study

EPA Science Inventory

Rapid growing of travel demand and transportation activities and co-occurring land use changes have resulted in traffic congestion and negative impacts on the environment, energy consumption and green house gas (GHG) emissions in an urban environment. The challenge lies in quanti...

Exploring synergies between transit investment and dense redevelopment: A scenario analysis in a rapidly urbanizing landscape

EPA Science Inventory

Like many urban areas around the world, Durham and Orange counties in North Carolina, USA are experiencing population growth and sprawl that is putting stress on the transportation system. Light rail and denser transit-oriented development are being considered as possible solutio...

Urban hydrogeology in Indonesia: A highlight from Jakarta

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lubis, R. F.

2018-02-01

In many cities in the developing countries, groundwater is an important source of public water supply. The interaction between groundwater systems and urban environments has become an urgent challenge for many developing cities in the world, Indonesia included. Contributing factors are, but not limited to, the continuous horizontal and vertical expansion of cities, population growth, climate change, water scarcity and groundwater quality degradation. Jakarta as the capital city of Indonesia becomes a good example to study and implement urban hydrogeology. Urban hydrogeology is a science for investigating groundwater at the hydrological cycle and its change, water regime and quality within the urbanized landscape and zones of its impact. The present paper provides a review of urban groundwater studies in Jakarta in the context of urban water management, advances in hydrogeological investigation, monitoring and modelling since the city was established. The whole study emphasizes the necessity of an integrated urban groundwater management and development supporting hydrogeological techniques for urban areas.

Cost-effectiveness and resource implications of aggressive action on tuberculosis in China, India, and South Africa: a combined analysis of nine models.

PubMed

Menzies, Nicolas A; Gomez, Gabriela B; Bozzani, Fiammetta; Chatterjee, Susmita; Foster, Nicola; Baena, Ines Garcia; Laurence, Yoko V; Qiang, Sun; Siroka, Andrew; Sweeney, Sedona; Verguet, Stéphane; Arinaminpathy, Nimalan; Azman, Andrew S; Bendavid, Eran; Chang, Stewart T; Cohen, Ted; Denholm, Justin T; Dowdy, David W; Eckhoff, Philip A; Goldhaber-Fiebert, Jeremy D; Handel, Andreas; Huynh, Grace H; Lalli, Marek; Lin, Hsien-Ho; Mandal, Sandip; McBryde, Emma S; Pandey, Surabhi; Salomon, Joshua A; Suen, Sze-Chuan; Sumner, Tom; Trauer, James M; Wagner, Bradley G; Whalen, Christopher C; Wu, Chieh-Yin; Boccia, Delia; Chadha, Vineet K; Charalambous, Salome; Chin, Daniel P; Churchyard, Gavin; Daniels, Colleen; Dewan, Puneet; Ditiu, Lucica; Eaton, Jeffrey W; Grant, Alison D; Hippner, Piotr; Hosseini, Mehran; Mametja, David; Pretorius, Carel; Pillay, Yogan; Rade, Kiran; Sahu, Suvanand; Wang, Lixia; Houben, Rein M G J; Kimerling, Michael E; White, Richard G; Vassall, Anna

2016-11-01

The post-2015 End TB Strategy sets global targets of reducing tuberculosis incidence by 50% and mortality by 75% by 2025. We aimed to assess resource requirements and cost-effectiveness of strategies to achieve these targets in China, India, and South Africa. We examined intervention scenarios developed in consultation with country stakeholders, which scaled up existing interventions to high but feasible coverage by 2025. Nine independent modelling groups collaborated to estimate policy outcomes, and we estimated the cost of each scenario by synthesising service use estimates, empirical cost data, and expert opinion on implementation strategies. We estimated health effects (ie, disability-adjusted life-years averted) and resource implications for 2016-35, including patient-incurred costs. To assess resource requirements and cost-effectiveness, we compared scenarios with a base case representing continued current practice. Incremental tuberculosis service costs differed by scenario and country, and in some cases they more than doubled existing funding needs. In general, expansion of tuberculosis services substantially reduced patient-incurred costs and, in India and China, produced net cost savings for most interventions under a societal perspective. In all three countries, expansion of access to care produced substantial health gains. Compared with current practice and conventional cost-effectiveness thresholds, most intervention approaches seemed highly cost-effective. Expansion of tuberculosis services seems cost-effective for high-burden countries and could generate substantial health and economic benefits for patients, although substantial new funding would be required. Further work to determine the optimal intervention mix for each country is necessary. Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation. Copyright © 2016 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an Open Access article under the CC BY license. Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.

Modeling future U.S. forest sector market and trade impacts of expansion in wood energy consumption

Treesearch

Peter J. Ince; Andrew D. Kramp; Kenneth E. Skog; Do-il Yoo; V. Alaric Sample

2011-01-01

This paper describes an approach to modeling U.S. forest sector market and trade impacts of expansion in domestic wood energy consumption under hypothetical future U.S. wood biomass energy policy scenarios. The U.S. Forest Products Module (USFPM) was created to enhance the modeling of the U.S. forest sector within the Global Forest Products Model (GFPM), providing a...

Assessing equitable access to urban green space: the role of engineered water infrastructure.

PubMed

Wendel, Heather E Wright; Downs, Joni A; Mihelcic, James R

2011-08-15

Urban green space and water features provide numerous social, environmental, and economic benefits, yet disparities often exist in their distribution and accessibility. This study examines the link between issues of environmental justice and urban water management to evaluate potential improvements in green space and surface water access through the revitalization of existing engineered water infrastructures, namely stormwater ponds. First, relative access to green space and water features were compared for residents of Tampa, Florida, and an inner-city community of Tampa (East Tampa). Although disparities were not found in overall accessibility between Tampa and East Tampa, inequalities were apparent when quality, diversity, and size of green spaces were considered. East Tampa residents had significantly less access to larger, more desirable spaces and water features. Second, this research explored approaches for improving accessibility to green space and natural water using three integrated stormwater management development scenarios. These scenarios highlighted the ability of enhanced water infrastructures to increase access equality at a variety of spatial scales. Ultimately, the "greening" of gray urban water infrastructures is advocated as a way to address environmental justice issues while also reconnecting residents with issues of urban water management.

2016 Standard Scenarios Report: A U.S. Electricity Sector Outlook

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Cole, Wesley; Mai, Trieu; Logan, Jeffrey

The Standard Scenarios and this associated report, which are now in their second year, present an examination of some of the key aspects of the change occurring, or anticipated to occur, in the power sector over the next several decades. The Standard Scenarios consist of 18 power sector scenarios which have been projected using the National Renewable Energy Laboratory's (NREL's) Regional Energy Deployment System (ReEDS) long-term capacity expansion model and the dGen rooftop PV diffusion model. The purpose of the Standard Scenarios and this associated report is to provide context, discussion, and data to inform stakeholder decision-making regarding the futuremore » direction of U.S. power sector. As an extension to this report, the Standard Scenario outputs are presented in a downloadable format online using the Standard Scenarios' Results Viewer at http://en.openei.org/apps/reeds/. This report reflects high-level conclusions and analysis, whereas the Standard Scenarios' Results Viewer includes the scenario results that can be used for more in-depth analysis.« less

Projected impact of urbanization on cardiovascular disease in China.

PubMed

Chan, Faye; Adamo, Susana; Coxson, Pamela; Goldman, Lee; Gu, Dongfeng; Zhao, Dong; Chen, Chung-Shiuan; He, Jiang; Mara, Valentina; Moran, Andrew

2012-10-01

The Coronary Heart Disease (CHD) Policy Model-China, a national scale cardiovascular disease computer simulation model, was used to project future impact of urbanization. Populations and cardiovascular disease incidence rates were stratified into four submodels: North-Urban, South-Urban, North-Rural, and South-Rural. 2010 was the base year, and high and low urbanization rate scenarios were used to project 2030 populations. Rural-to-urban migration, population growth, and aging were projected to more than double cardiovascular disease events in urban areas and increase events by 27.0-45.6% in rural areas. Urbanization is estimated to raise age-standardized coronary heart disease incidence by 73-81 per 100,000 and stroke incidence only slightly. Rural-to-urban migration will likely be a major demographic driver of the cardiovascular disease epidemic in China.

GENIUS: A tool for multi-disciplinary and multi-scalar databases

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bonhomme, M.; Masson, V.; Adolphe, L.; Faraut, S.

2013-12-01

Cities are responsible for the majority of energy consumption on the planet. As a consequence, researches regarding energy use in urban context have been increasing for the last decades. Recently the interrelationship between city, energy consumption and urban microclimate appeared as a key component of urban sustainability. To be accurate, those studies must take into account a multidisciplinary urban context and modelling tools need high definition data. Nevertheless, at the city scale, input data is either imprecise or only available for small areas. In particular, there is a lack of information about buildings footprints, roofs sloping, envelope materials, etc. Moreover, the existing data do not allow researchers to explore prospective issues such as climate change or future urban development. In this sense, we developed a new tool called GENIUS (GENerator of Interactive Urban blockS) to build high definition and evolutionary maps from available databases. GENIUS creates maps composed of archetypical neighbourhood coming as shape-files of polygons with additional information (height, age, use, thermal insulation, etc.). Those archetypical neighbourhoods come to seven types of urban blocks that can be found in most European cities. Those types can be compared with Stewart and Oke Local Climate Zones (LCZ). The first step of our method is to transform an existing map into an 'archetypical map'. To do this, the urban database of the IGN (French Geographical Institute) was used. The maps were divided into cells of 250 meters resolution. For each cell, about 40 morphological indicators were calculated. Seven groups of blocks were then identified by means of Principal Component Analysis. GENIUS databases are also able to evolve through time. As a matter of fact, the initial map is transformed, year after year, by taking into account changes in density and urban history. In that sense, GENIUS communicates with NEDUM, a model developed by the CIRED (International Centre for Environment and Development), that simulates the spread of the city and provides information on build density. Under the influence of those density evolutions and of different urban planning scenarios, GENIUS changes the type of urban blocks and their parameters (height, plot ratio, thermal properties, etc.). The paper will present the validation of GENIUS and its application on the French city of Toulouse. Six scenarios have been designed taking into account demographic evolutions, economic contexts and urban planning policies. For each of those scenarios, we generated maps of the city and its surroundings from 2010 to 2100. The obtained maps enabled us to come up with simulations of Toulouse energy consumptions and microclimate both present and future.

Radar Sensing for Intelligent Vehicles in Urban Environments

PubMed Central

Reina, Giulio; Johnson, David; Underwood, James

2015-01-01

Radar overcomes the shortcomings of laser, stereovision, and sonar because it can operate successfully in dusty, foggy, blizzard-blinding, and poorly lit scenarios. This paper presents a novel method for ground and obstacle segmentation based on radar sensing. The algorithm operates directly in the sensor frame, without the need for a separate synchronised navigation source, calibration parameters describing the location of the radar in the vehicle frame, or the geometric restrictions made in the previous main method in the field. Experimental results are presented in various urban scenarios to validate this approach, showing its potential applicability for advanced driving assistance systems and autonomous vehicle operations. PMID:26102493

Radar Sensing for Intelligent Vehicles in Urban Environments.

PubMed

Reina, Giulio; Johnson, David; Underwood, James

2015-06-19

Radar overcomes the shortcomings of laser, stereovision, and sonar because it can operate successfully in dusty, foggy, blizzard-blinding, and poorly lit scenarios. This paper presents a novel method for ground and obstacle segmentation based on radar sensing. The algorithm operates directly in the sensor frame, without the need for a separate synchronised navigation source, calibration parameters describing the location of the radar in the vehicle frame, or the geometric restrictions made in the previous main method in the field. Experimental results are presented in various urban scenarios to validate this approach, showing its potential applicability for advanced driving assistance systems and autonomous vehicle operations.

Current and Future Urban Stormwater Flooding Scenarios in the Southeast Florida Coasts

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Huq, E.; Abdul-Aziz, O. I.

2016-12-01

This study computed rainfall-fed stormwater flooding under the historical and future reference scenarios for the Southeast Coasts Basin of Florida. A large-scale, mechanistic rainfall-runoff model was developed using the U.S. E.P.A. Storm Water Management Model (SWMM 5.1). The model parameterized important processes of urban hydrology, groundwater, and sea level, while including hydroclimatological variables and land use features. The model was calibrated and validated with historical streamflow data. It was then used to estimate the sensitivity of stormwater runoff to the reference changes in hydroclimatological variables (rainfall and evapotranspiration) and different land use/land cover features (imperviousness, roughness). Furthermore, historical (1970-2000) and potential 2050s stormwater budgets were also estimated for the Florida Southeast Coasts Basin by incorporating climatic projections from different GCMs and RCMs, as well as by using relevant projections of sea level and land use/cover. Comparative synthesis of the historical and future scenarios along with the results of sensitivity analysis can aid in efficient management of stormwater flooding for the southeast Florida coasts and similar urban centers under a changing regime of climate, sea level, land use/cover and hydrology.

Comparative Synthesis of Current and Future Urban Stormwater Runoff Scenarios in Tampa Bay Basin under a Changing Climate

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Khan, M.; Abdul-Aziz, O. I.

2016-12-01

Changes in climatic regimes and basin characteristics such as imperviousness, roughness and land use types would lead to potential changes in stormwater budget. In this study we quantified reference sensitivities of stormwater runoff to the potential climatic and land use/cover changes by developing a large-scale, mechanistic rainfall-runoff model for the Tampa Bay Basin of Florida using the US EPA Storm Water Management Model (SWMM 5.1). Key processes of urban hydrology, its dynamic interactions with groundwater and sea level, hydro-climatic variables and land use/cover characteristics were incorporated within the model. The model was calibrated and validated with historical streamflow data. We then computed the historical (1970-2000) and potential 2050s stormwater budgets for the Tampa Bay Basin. Climatic scenario projected by the global climate models (GCMs) and the regional climate models (RCMs), along with sea level and land use/cover projections, were utilized to anticipate the future stormwater budget. The comparative assessment of current and future stormwater scenario will aid a proactive management of stormwater runoff under a changing climate in the Tampa Bay Basin and similar urban basins around the world.

Policy Choice for Urban Low-carbon transportation in Beijing: Scenario Analysis Based on LEAP model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, Yu

2016-04-01

Beijing is a fast developing megacity with serious traffic problems, such as high energy consumption, high CO2 emission and traffic congestion. The coming 13th Five-Year Plan for Beijing economic and social development will focus on the low-carbon transportation policy to achieve the urban traffic sustainable development. In order to improve the feasibility of urban low-carbon transportation policies, this paper analyzes the future trends of CO2 emissions from transportation of Beijing. Firstly, five policies scenarios are developed according to the coming Beijing 13th Five-Year Plan, including the "Business As Usual (BAU)", the "Public Transportation Priority(PTP)", the "New Energy Vehicle(NEV)", the "Active Transportation(AT)", the "Private Car Regulation(PCR)" and the "Hybrid Policy(HP)". Then the Long-range Energy Alternatives Planning System(LEAP model) framework is adopted to estimate CO2 emission under given policies scenarios up to year 2020 and analyze the implications. The results demonstrate that the low-carbon transportation policies can reduce CO2 emission effectively. Specifically, the "Hybrid Policy(HP)" has the best performance. In terms of single policy effect, the "Private Car Regulation(PCR)" comes first followed by the "Public Transportation Priority(PTP)".

Theory Can Help Structure Regression Models for Projecting Stream Conditions Under Alternative Land Use Scenarios

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

van Sickle, J.; Baker, J.; Herlihy, A.

2005-05-01

We built multiple regression models for Emphemeroptera/ Plecoptera/ Tricoptera (EPT) taxon richness and other indicators of biological condition in streams of the Willamette River Basin, Oregon, USA. The models were used to project the changes in condition that would be expected in all 2-4th order streams of the 30000 sq km basin under alternative scenarios of future land use. In formulating the models, we invoked the theory of limiting factors to express the interactive effects of stream power and watershed land use on EPT richness. The resulting models were parsimonious, and they fit the data in our wedge-shaped scatterplots slightly better than did a naive additive-effects model. Just as theory helped formulate our regression models, the models in turn helped us identify a new research need for the Basin's streams. Our future scenarios project that conversions of agricultural to urban uses may dominate landscape dynamics in the basin over the next 50 years. But our models could not detect any difference between the effects of agricultural and urban development in watersheds on stream biota. This result points to an increased need for understanding how agricultural and urban land uses in the Basin differentially influence stream ecosystems.

Aquatic exposures of chemical mixtures in urban environments: Approaches to impact assessment.

PubMed

de Zwart, Dick; Adams, William; Galay Burgos, Malyka; Hollender, Juliane; Junghans, Marion; Merrington, Graham; Muir, Derek; Parkerton, Thomas; De Schamphelaere, Karel A C; Whale, Graham; Williams, Richard

2018-03-01

Urban regions of the world are expanding rapidly, placing additional stress on water resources. Urban water bodies serve many purposes, from washing and sources of drinking water to transport and conduits for storm drainage and effluent discharge. These water bodies receive chemical emissions arising from either single or multiple point sources, diffuse sources which can be continuous, intermittent, or seasonal. Thus, aquatic organisms in these water bodies are exposed to temporally and compositionally variable mixtures. We have delineated source-specific signatures of these mixtures for diffuse urban runoff and urban point source exposure scenarios to support risk assessment and management of these mixtures. The first step in a tiered approach to assessing chemical exposure has been developed based on the event mean concentration concept, with chemical concentrations in runoff defined by volumes of water leaving each surface and the chemical exposure mixture profiles for different urban scenarios. Although generalizations can be made about the chemical composition of urban sources and event mean exposure predictions for initial prioritization, such modeling needs to be complemented with biological monitoring data. It is highly unlikely that the current paradigm of routine regulatory chemical monitoring alone will provide a realistic appraisal of urban aquatic chemical mixture exposures. Future consideration is also needed of the role of nonchemical stressors in such highly modified urban water bodies. Environ Toxicol Chem 2018;37:703-714. © 2017 The Authors. Environmental Toxicology and Chemistry published by Wiley Periodicals, Inc. on behalf of SETAC. © 2017 The Authors. Environmental Toxicology and Chemistry published by Wiley Periodicals, Inc. on behalf of SETAC.

The Aging Urban Brain: Analyzing Outdoor Physical Activity Using the Emotiv Affectiv Suite in Older People.

PubMed

Neale, Chris; Aspinall, Peter; Roe, Jenny; Tilley, Sara; Mavros, Panagiotis; Cinderby, Steve; Coyne, Richard; Thin, Neil; Bennett, Gary; Thompson, Catharine Ward

2017-12-01

This research directly assesses older people's neural activation in response to a changing urban environment while walking, as measured by electroencephalography (EEG). The study builds on previous research that shows changes in cortical activity while moving through different urban settings. The current study extends this methodology to explore previously unstudied outcomes in older people aged 65 years or more (n = 95). Participants were recruited to walk one of six scenarios pairing urban busy (a commercial street with traffic), urban quiet (a residential street) and urban green (a public park) spaces in a counterbalanced design, wearing a mobile Emotiv EEG headset to record real-time neural responses to place. Each walk lasted around 15 min and was undertaken at the pace of the participant. We report on the outputs for these responses derived from the Emotiv Affectiv Suite software, which creates emotional parameters ('excitement', 'frustration', 'engagement' and 'meditation') with a real-time value assigned to them. The six walking scenarios were compared using a form of high dimensional correlated component regression (CCR) on difference data, capturing the change between one setting and another. The results showed that levels of 'engagement' were higher in the urban green space compared to those of the urban busy and urban quiet spaces, whereas levels of 'excitement' were higher in the urban busy environment compared with those of the urban green space and quiet urban space. In both cases, this effect is shown regardless of the order of exposure to these different environments. These results suggest that there are neural signatures associated with the experience of different urban spaces which may reflect the older age of the sample as well as the condition of the spaces themselves. The urban green space appears to have a restorative effect on this group of older adults.

Introducing Urban Food Forestry: A Multifunctional Strategy for Enhancing Urban Sustainability

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nicholas, K. A.; Clark, K.

2012-12-01

We propose combining elements of urban agriculture and urban forestry into what we call "urban food forestry" (UFF), the practice of growing perennial woody food-producing species ("food trees") in cities. We used four approaches at different scales to gauge the potential of UFF to enhance urban sustainability, in the context of trends including increasing urbanization, resource demands, and climate change. First, we analyzed 37 current international initiatives based around urban food trees, finding that core activities included planting, mapping, and harvesting food trees, but that only about a quarter of initiatives engaged in more than one of these activities necessary to fully utilize the food potential of urban trees. Second, we analyzed 30 urban forestry master plans, finding that only 13% included human food security among their objectives. Third, we used Burlington, Vermont as a case study to quantify the potential caloric output of publicly accessible open space if planted with Malus domestica (the common apple) under 9 different scenarios. We found that the entire caloric deficit of the very low food security population could be met on as few as 29 hectares (representing 16% of total open space), and that 98% of the daily recommended minimum intake of fruit for the entire city's population could be met under the most ambitious planting scenario. Finally, we developed a decision-making tool for selecting potential food trees appropriate for temperate urban environments, the Climate-Food-Species Matrix. We identified a total of 70 species, 30 of which we deemed "highly suitable" for urban food forestry based on their cold hardiness, drought tolerance, and edibility. We conclude that urban food forestry provides multiple pathways for building urban sustainability through local food production, and that our framework can be used to increase the coordination between and effectiveness of a growing number of related initiatives.

Urban Expansion and the Loss of Prime Agricultural Lands in Puerto Rico

Treesearch

T. Mitchell Aide Tania del Mar López

2001-01-01

In many countries where the economy has shifted from mainly agricultural to industrial, abandoned agricultural lands are lost to urbanization. For more than 4 centuries the Puerto Rican economy depended almost entirely on agriculture, but sociopolitical changes early in the 20th century resulted in a shift to industry. This shift in the economy, and an increase in...

Teach for America's Paradoxical Diversity Initiative: Race, Policy, and Black Teacher Displacement in Urban Public Schools

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

White, Terrenda

2016-01-01

This article examines the paradox of Teach For America's diversity gains and its support for policies that contribute to Black teacher decline in urban communities. TFA has countered claims that its expansion is connected to teacher displacement, but its two-pronged structure--as an alternative certification program and an influential policy actor…

Expanding the vision of the Experimental Forest and Range network to urban areas

Treesearch

J. Morgan Grove

2014-01-01

After 100 years, the USDA Forest Service has emerging opportunities to expand the Experimental Forest and Range (EFR) network to urban areas. The purpose of this expansion would be to broaden the types of ecosystems studied, interdisciplinary approaches used, and relevance to society of the EFR network through long-term and large-scale social-ecological projects in...

Parasitic diseases and urban development.

PubMed Central

Mott, K. E.; Desjeux, P.; Moncayo, A.; Ranque, P.; de Raadt, P.

1990-01-01

The distribution and epidemiology of parasitic diseases in both urban and periurban areas of endemic countries have been changing as development progresses. The following different scenarios involving Chagas disease, lymphatic filariasis, leishmaniasis and schistosomiasis are discussed: (1) infected persons entering nonendemic urban areas without vectors; (2) infected persons entering nonendemic urban areas with vectors; (3) infected persons entering endemic urban areas; (4) non-infected persons entering endemic urban areas; (5) urbanization or domestication of natural zoonotic foci; and (6) vectors entering nonendemic urban areas. Cultural and social habits from the rural areas, such as type of house construction and domestic water usage, are adopted by migrants to urban areas and increase the risk of disease transmission which adversely affects employment in urban populations. As the urban health services must deal with the rise in parasitic diseases, appropriate control strategies for the urban setting must be developed and implemented. PMID:2127380

Electric Grid Expansion Planning with High Levels of Variable Generation

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Hadley, Stanton W.; You, Shutang; Shankar, Mallikarjun

2016-02-01

Renewables are taking a large proportion of generation capacity in U.S. power grids. As their randomness has increasing influence on power system operation, it is necessary to consider their impact on system expansion planning. To this end, this project studies the generation and transmission expansion co-optimization problem of the US Eastern Interconnection (EI) power grid with a high wind power penetration rate. In this project, the generation and transmission expansion problem for the EI system is modeled as a mixed-integer programming (MIP) problem. This study analyzed a time series creation method to capture the diversity of load and wind powermore » across balancing regions in the EI system. The obtained time series can be easily introduced into the MIP co-optimization problem and then solved robustly through available MIP solvers. Simulation results show that the proposed time series generation method and the expansion co-optimization model and can improve the expansion result significantly after considering the diversity of wind and load across EI regions. The improved expansion plan that combines generation and transmission will aid system planners and policy makers to maximize the social welfare. This study shows that modelling load and wind variations and diversities across balancing regions will produce significantly different expansion result compared with former studies. For example, if wind is modeled in more details (by increasing the number of wind output levels) so that more wind blocks are considered in expansion planning, transmission expansion will be larger and the expansion timing will be earlier. Regarding generation expansion, more wind scenarios will slightly reduce wind generation expansion in the EI system and increase the expansion of other generation such as gas. Also, adopting detailed wind scenarios will reveal that it may be uneconomic to expand transmission networks for transmitting a large amount of wind power through a long distance in the EI system. Incorporating more details of renewables in expansion planning will inevitably increase the computational burden. Therefore, high performance computing (HPC) techniques are urgently needed for power system operation and planning optimization. As a scoping study task, this project tested some preliminary parallel computation techniques such as breaking down the simulation task into several sub-tasks based on chronology splitting or sample splitting, and then assigning these sub-tasks to different cores. Testing results show significant time reduction when a simulation task is split into several sub-tasks for parallel execution.« less

Changes in urban-related precipitation in the summer over three city clusters in China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhao, Deming; Wu, Jian

2017-09-01

The impacts of urban surface expansion on the summer precipitations over three city clusters [Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei (BTH), the Yangtze River Delta (YRD), and the Pearl River Delta (PRD)] in eastern China under different monsoonal circulation backgrounds were explored using the nested fifth-generation Penn State/NCAR Mesoscale Model version 3.7 (MM5 V3.7), including the urban-related thermal and dynamical parameters. Ten-year integrations were performed using satellite image data from 2000 and 2010 to represent the urban surface distributions and expansions in China. Changes in the precipitation revealed obvious subregional characteristics, which could be explained by the influences of the vertical wind velocity and moisture flux. With urban-related warming, vertical wind motion generally intensified over urban surface-expanded areas. Meanwhile, the increase in impervious surface areas induced rapid rainwater runoff into drains, and the Bowen ratio increased over urban areas, which further contributed to changes in the local moisture fluxes in these regions. The intensities of the changes in precipitation were inconsistent over the three city clusters, although the changes in vertical motion and local evaporation were similar, which indicates that the changes in precipitation cannot be solely explained by the changes in the local evaporation-related moisture flux. The changes in precipitation were also influenced by the changes in the East Asian summer monsoon (EASM) circulation and the corresponding moisture flux, which are expressed in marked subregional characteristics. Therefore, the influence of urban-related precipitation over the three city clusters in China, for which changes in moisture flux from both the impacted local evaporation and EASM circulation should be considered, varied based on the precipitation changes of only a single city.

Urban land for a growing city at the banks of a moving river: Vienna's spread into the Danube island Unterer Werd from the late 17th to the beginning of the 20th century.

PubMed

Haidvogl, Gertrud; Guthyne-Horvath, Marianna; Gierlinger, Sylvia; Hohensinner, Severin; Sonnlechner, Christoph

In the relation between urban development and the Viennese Danube different periods can be identified from the late 17th to the early 20th century. These periods were strongly intertwined with both the history of the river and the history of the city. Urban expansion into the floodplains is demonstrated in this paper by investigating the island Unterer Werd, next to the city centre. In the late 17th century the fluvial dynamic still hampered urban development on the island. First measures to stabilise the river banks and to protect buildings from floods were taken soon thereafter, but the majority of practices aimed at mitigating the risks and impacts of the frequent floods: inundation was a part of the arrangement and the main target was to minimise the potential impacts. This practice also prevailed after the 1830s, when urban expansion began to move into the north and northwest of the island and the Danube floodplains were considered an important land resource for the growing city. In connection with new technologies and available means to channelise the river, the relationship between Vienna and the Danube changed fundamentally. Urban development in the riverine landscape gained new momentum. This process was initiated before the Great Danube Regulation from 1870 to 1875 was completed, the rate of growth accelerated after 1875. The last decades of the 19th century mark a turning point in the urban development of Vienna, with expanding urban areas becoming dependent upon a well functioning and maintained flood protection system.

A current disruption mechanism in the neutral sheet - A possible trigger for substorm expansions

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lui, A. T. Y.; Mankofsky, A.; Chang, C.-L.; Papadopoulos, K.; Wu, C. S.

1990-01-01

A linear analysis is performed to investigate the kinetic cross-field streaming instability in the earth's magnetotail neutral sheet region. Numerical solution of the dispersion equation shows that the instability can occur under conditions expected for the neutral sheet just prior to the onset of substorm expansion. The excited waves are obliquely propagating whistlers with a mixed polarization in the lower hybrid frequency range. The ensuing turbulence of this instability can lead to a local reduction of the cross-tail current causing it to continue through the ionosphere to form a substorm current wedge. A substorm expansion onset scenario is proposed based on this instability in which the relative drift between ions and electrons is primarily due to unmagnetized ions undergoing current sheet acceleration in the presence of a cross-tail electric field. The required electric field strength is within the range of electric field values detected in the neutral sheet region during substorm intervals. The skew in local time of substorm onset location and the three conditions under which substorm onset is observed can be understood on the basis of the proposed scenario.

The contraction/expansion history of Charon with implications for its planetary-scale tectonic belt

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Malamud, Uri; Perets, Hagai B.; Schubert, Gerald

2017-06-01

The New Horizons mission to the Kuiper belt has recently revealed intriguing features on the surface of Charon, including a network of chasmata, cutting across or around a series of high topography features, conjoining to form a belt. It is proposed that this tectonic belt is a consequence of contraction/expansion episodes in the moon's evolution associated particularly with compaction, differentiation and geochemical reactions of the interior. The proposed scenario involves no need for solidification of a vast subsurface ocean and/or a warm initial state. This scenario is based on a new, detailed thermo-physical evolution model of Charon that includes multiple processes. According to the model, Charon experiences two contraction/expansion episodes in its history that may provide the proper environment for the formation of the tectonic belt. This outcome remains qualitatively the same, for several different initial conditions and parameter variations. The precise orientation of Charon's tectonic belt, and the cryovolcanic features observed south of the tectonic belt may have involved a planetary-scale impact, that occurred only after the belt had already formed.

Significant Threat to North American forests from Southern Pine Beetle with Warming Winters

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Horton, R. M.; Lesk, C.; Coffel, E.; D'Amato, A. W.

2016-12-01

In coming decades, warmer winters are likely to lift range constraints on many cold-limited forest insects. Recent unprecedented expansion of the southern pine beetle (SPB, Dendroctonus frontalis) into New Jersey, New York, Connecticut, and Massachusetts in concert with warming annual temperature minima highlights the risk that this insect pest poses to the pine forests of the northern United States and Canada under continued climate change. Here we present the first projections of northward expansion in SPB-suitable climates using a statistical bioclimatic range modeling approach and current-generation general circulation model (GCM) output under the RCP 4.5 and 8.5 emissions scenarios. Our results show that by the middle of the 21st century, the climate is likely to be suitable for SPB expansion into vast areas of previously unaffected forests throughout the northeastern United States and into southeastern Canada. This scenario would pose a significant economic and ecological risk to the affected regions, including disruption of local ecosystem services, dramatic shifts in forest structure, and threats to native biodiversity.

Determining the impact of urban components on land surface temperature of Istanbul by using remote sensing indices.

PubMed

Bektaş Balçik, Filiz

2014-02-01

For the past 60 years, Istanbul has been experiencing an accelerated urban expansion. This urban expansion is leading to the replacement of natural surfaces by various artificial materials. This situation has a critical impact on the environment due to the alteration of heat energy balance. In this study, the effect upon the urban heat island (UHI) of Istanbul was analyzed using 2009 dated Landsat 5 Thematic Mapper (TM) data. An Index Based Built-up Index (IBI) was used to derive artificial surfaces in the study area. To produce the IBI index, Soil-Adjusted Vegetation Index, Normalized Difference Built-up Index, and Modified Normalized Difference Water Index were calculated. Land surface temperature (LST) distribution was derived from Landsat 5 TM images using a mono-window algorithm. In addition, 24 transects were selected, and different regression models were applied to explore the correlation between LST and IBI index. The results show that artificial surfaces have a positive exponential relationship with LST rather than a simple linear one. An ecological evaluation index of the region was calculated to explore the impact of both the vegetated land and the artificial surfaces on the UHI. Therefore, the quantitative relationship of urban components (artificial surfaces, vegetation, and water) and LST was examined using multivariate statistical analysis, and the correlation coefficient was obtained as 0.829. This suggested that the areas with a high rate of urbanization will accelerate the rise of LST and UHI in Istanbul.

Urbanization and agricultural land loss in India: comparing satellite estimates with census data.

PubMed

Pandey, Bhartendu; Seto, Karen C

2015-01-15

We examine the impacts of urbanization on agricultural land loss in India from 2001 to 2010. We combined a hierarchical classification approach with econometric time series analysis to reconstruct land-cover change histories using time series MODIS 250 m VI images composited at 16-day intervals and night time lights (NTL) data. We compared estimates of agricultural land loss using satellite data with agricultural census data. Our analysis highlights six key results. First, agricultural land loss is occurring around smaller cities more than around bigger cities. Second, from 2001 to 2010, each state lost less than 1% of its total geographical area due to agriculture to urban expansion. Third, the northeastern states experienced the least amount of agricultural land loss. Fourth, agricultural land loss is largely in states and districts which have a larger number of operational or approved SEZs. Fifth, urban conversion of agricultural land is concentrated in a few districts and states with high rates of economic growth. Sixth, agricultural land loss is predominantly in states with higher agricultural land suitability compared to other states. Although the total area of agricultural land lost to urban expansion has been relatively low, our results show that since 2006, the amount of agricultural land converted has been increasing steadily. Given that the preponderance of India's urban population growth has yet to occur, the results suggest an increase in the conversion of agricultural land going into the future. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Decarbonizing urban transport in European cities: four cases show possibly high co-benefits

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Creutzig, Felix; Mühlhoff, Rainer; Römer, Julia

2012-12-01

Cities worldwide are increasingly becoming agents of climate change mitigation, while simultaneously aiming for other goals, such as improved accessibility and clean air. Based on stakeholder interviews and data analysis, we assess the current state of urban mobility in the four European cities of Barcelona, Malmö, Sofia and Freiburg. We then provide scenarios of increasingly ambitious policy packages, reducing greenhouse gas emissions from urban transport by up to 80% from 2010 to 2040. We find significant concurrent co-benefits in cleaner air, reduced noise ambience, fewer traffic-related injuries and deaths, more physical activity, less congestion and monetary fuel savings. Our scenarios suggest that non-motorized transport, especially bicycles, can occupy high modal shares, particularly in cities with less than 0.5 million inhabitants. We think that this kind of multi-criteria assessment of social costs and benefits is a useful complement to cost-benefit analysis of climate change mitigation measures.

Environmental suitability for Lutzomyia (Nyssomyia) whitmani (Diptera: Psychodidae: Phlebotominae) and the occurrence of American cutaneous leishmaniasis in Brazil.

PubMed

da Costa, Simone Miranda; Cordeiro, José Luís Passos; Rangel, Elizabeth Ferreira

2018-03-07

Leishmaniasis represents an important public health problem in Brazil. The continuous process of urbanization and expansion of human activities in forest areas impacts natural habitats, modifying the ecology of some species of Leishmania, as well as its vectors and reservoirs and, consequently, changes the epidemiological pattern that contributes to the expansion of American cutaneous leishmaniasis in Brazil. Here, we discuss Lutzomyia (Nyssomyia) whitmani, the main vector of ACL, transmitting two dermotropic Leishmania species including Leishmania (Viannia) braziliensis and Leishmania (V.) shawi. We used the maximum entropy niche modelling approach (MaxEnt) to evaluate the environmental suitability of L. (N.) whitmani and the transmission of ACL in Brazil, in addition to designing models for a future scenario of climate change. MaxEnt was used under the "auto-features" mode and the default settings, with 100-fold repetition (bootstrap). The logistic output was used with higher values in the habitat suitability map, representing more favourable conditions for the occurrence of L. (N.) whitmani and human cases of ACL. Two models were developed: the Lutzomyia (N.) whitmani model (LWM) and the American cutaneous leishmaniasis model (ACLM). LWM identified the species "preferential habitat" included regions with moderate annual precipitation (AP) between 1000-1600 mm, intermediate vegetation density (NDVI) values, mean temperature of the coldest quarter (MTCQ), between 15-21 °C, and annual mean temperature (AMT), between 19-24 °C. ACLM indicates that ACL is strongly associated with areas of intermediate density vegetation, areas with AP between 800-1200 mm, MTCQ above 16 °C and AMT below 23 °C. The models generated for L. (N.) whitmani and ACL indicated a satisfactory predictive capacity. Future projections of LWM indicate an expansion of climatic suitability for L. (N.) whitmani for the northern and southern regions of Brazil. Future projections of ACL indicate the ongoing process of disease expansion in the face of the predicted climatic changes and reinforce the broad geographical expanse of this disease in Brazil. The models were able to identify that a continuous process of environmental degradation favours the establishment of L. (N.) whitmani and the occurrence of ACL by a strong association of the vector(s) and ACL to areas of intermediate vegetation cover density.

The role of scenario analysis in water resources management in Yanqi Basin, Xinjiang, China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, N.; Kinzelbach, W. K.; Li, W.; Dong, X.

2011-12-01

With the rapid increase of world population and food demand, the demand for water resources is also increasing. At the same time shifts in rain patterns due to global climate change make the water resources situation more uncertain. A global water crisis can therefore not be excluded. The socio-economic and environmental problems induced by such a water crisis are especially prominent in arid and semiarid regions. The Yanqi Basin in Xinjiang province is a typical case study in China's arid and semi-arid areas, where rainfall is scarce and evaporation is extremely high. Thus its water resources have been under great pressure to satisfy the increasing water demand of agriculture and urban and industrial expansion in the last decades. The development has been accompanied by a number of environmental problems. Yanqi Basin is an important cultivated area which is irrigated by water diverted from rivers. Because of the long-term flood irrigation and an inefficient drainage system, the groundwater level under the cultivated area rose, accelerating the phreatic evaporation and leading to increased soil salinization. Simultaneously, the water quantity and quality of Boston Lake have been impaired in past years because of the decreased river discharge and the increased salt flux contained in the drainage discharge. Thus the ecosystems depending on the inflow to and outflow from the lake suffered. The riverine forests in the downstream area were degraded due to declining groundwater levels, and aquatic life as well as downstream water users had to cope with deteriorating water quality. The big challenge for decision makers in the basin is how to balance the justified requirements of agriculture, industrial development and the ecosystem. In order to provide a scientific basis to the decision making process, a scenario analysis was adopted. Here several scenarios are proposed: the basic scenario, scenario 1, describes the status of the year 2008. A second scenario maximizes the use of groundwater. Scenario 3 applies water saving for maximum increase of discharge to the downstream area, and scenario 4 looks at different climatic extremes. As groundwater lends it self readily to water saving irrigation, a present danger is over pumping of groundwater which leads to less efficient drainage, and recycling and accumulation of TDS. In an effort to allow high groundwater use scenario 5 analyses the use of irrigation channels for artificial groundwater recharge by surface water. All of the scenarios are implemented and compared through simulation, using an integrated 3D distributed flow and transport model of Yanqi Basin based on MikeSHE/Mike11 software. After the comparison of the different scenarios, an optimal combination of surface and groundwater resources use is suggested to reach an acceptable and sustainable compromise between the various water users i.e. agriculture, industry and the ecosystem.

Mobile, Collaborative Situated Knowledge Creation for Urban Planning

PubMed Central

Zurita, Gustavo; Baloian, Nelson

2012-01-01

Geo-collaboration is an emerging research area in computer sciences studying the way spatial, geographically referenced information and communication technologies can support collaborative activities. Scenarios in which information associated to its physical location are of paramount importance are often referred as Situated Knowledge Creation scenarios. To date there are few computer systems supporting knowledge creation that explicitly incorporate physical context as part of the knowledge being managed in mobile face-to-face scenarios. This work presents a collaborative software application supporting visually-geo-referenced knowledge creation in mobile working scenarios while the users are interacting face-to-face. The system allows to manage data information associated to specific physical locations for knowledge creation processes in the field, such as urban planning, identifying specific physical locations, territorial management, etc.; using Tablet-PCs and GPS in order to geo-reference data and information. It presents a model for developing mobile applications supporting situated knowledge creation in the field, introducing the requirements for such an application and the functionalities it should have in order to fulfill them. The paper also presents the results of utility and usability evaluations. PMID:22778639

Mobile, collaborative situated knowledge creation for urban planning.

PubMed

Zurita, Gustavo; Baloian, Nelson

2012-01-01

Geo-collaboration is an emerging research area in computer sciences studying the way spatial, geographically referenced information and communication technologies can support collaborative activities. Scenarios in which information associated to its physical location are of paramount importance are often referred as Situated Knowledge Creation scenarios. To date there are few computer systems supporting knowledge creation that explicitly incorporate physical context as part of the knowledge being managed in mobile face-to-face scenarios. This work presents a collaborative software application supporting visually-geo-referenced knowledge creation in mobile working scenarios while the users are interacting face-to-face. The system allows to manage data information associated to specific physical locations for knowledge creation processes in the field, such as urban planning, identifying specific physical locations, territorial management, etc.; using Tablet-PCs and GPS in order to geo-reference data and information. It presents a model for developing mobile applications supporting situated knowledge creation in the field, introducing the requirements for such an application and the functionalities it should have in order to fulfill them. The paper also presents the results of utility and usability evaluations.

Evaluating the role of pre-onset streamers on substorm expansion - where do we go from here?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kepko, L.

2017-12-01

Prior to the THEMIS mission there were two `standard' substorm models — inside out vs. outside in. The THEMIS era has fundamentally altered this dichotomy with the inclusion of the triggered inside-out scenario. This scenario was initially based on the observation of THEMIS ASI white light streamers flowing from the poleward edge of the auroral oval, arriving in the vicinity of the eventual breakup region. It has since been augmented with observations from radar and 630.0 nm ASI cameras. The validity of this scenario rests crucially on the interpretation of ground-based auroral imager data, which in many cases is a subjective analysis. Through an exhaustive examination of 443 events that formed the basis of the pre-onset streamer, triggered inside-out scenario, we have identified several distinct types of auroral intensifications and expansions, including events for which pre-onset streamers appeared to play a clear role. In this talk we suggest an organizational paradigm for interpretation and analysis of substorm events, identifying when and under what conditions pre-onset streamers appear to be associated with auroral activity. We further comment on the current observational and theoretical hurdles that are limiting our ability to reach closure on this topic, and make specific recommendations for achieving further progress.

How does pollen versus seed dispersal affect niche evolution?

PubMed

Aguilée, Robin; Shaw, Frank H; Rousset, François; Shaw, Ruth G; Ronce, Ophélie

2013-03-01

In heterogeneous landscapes, the genetic and demographic consequences of dispersal influence the evolution of niche width. Unless pollen is limiting, pollen dispersal does not contribute directly to population growth. However, by disrupting local adaptation, it indirectly affects population dynamics. We compare the effect of pollen versus seed dispersal on the evolution of niche width in heterogeneous habitats, explicitly considering the feedback between maladaptation and demography. We consider two scenarios: the secondary contact of two subpopulations, in distinct, formerly isolated habitats, and the colonization of an empty habitat with dispersal between the new and ancestral habitat. With an analytical model, we identify critical levels of genetic variance leading to niche contraction (secondary contact scenario), or expansion (new habitat scenario). We confront these predictions with simulations where the genetic variance freely evolves. Niche contraction occurs when habitats are very different. It is faster as total gene flow increases or as pollen predominates in overall gene flow. Niche expansion occurs when habitat heterogeneity is not too high. Seed dispersal accelerates it, whereas pollen dispersal tends to retard it. In both scenarios very high seed dispersal leads to extinction. Overall, our results predict a wider niche for species dispersing seeds more than pollen. © 2012 The Author(s). Evolution© 2012 The Society for the Study of Evolution.

Time for a change: dynamic urban ecology.

PubMed

Ramalho, Cristina E; Hobbs, Richard J

2012-03-01

Contemporary cities are expanding rapidly in a spatially complex, non-linear manner. However, this form of expansion is rarely taken into account in the way that urbanization is classically assessed in ecological studies. An explicit consideration of the temporal dynamics, although frequently missing, is crucial in order to understand the effects of urbanization on biodiversity and ecosystem functioning in rapidly urbanizing landscapes. In particular, a temporal perspective highlights the importance of land-use legacies and transient dynamics in the response of biodiversity to environmental change. Here, we outline the essential elements of an emerging framework for urban ecology that incorporates the characteristics of contemporary urbanization and thus empowers ecologists to understand and intervene in the planning and management of cities. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

A wedge strategy for mitigation of urban warming in future climate scenarios

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhao, Lei; Lee, Xuhui; Schultz, Natalie M.

2017-07-01

Heat stress is one of the most severe climate threats to human society in a future warmer world. The situation is further exacerbated in urban areas by urban heat islands (UHIs). Because the majority of world's population is projected to live in cities, there is a pressing need to find effective solutions for the heat stress problem. We use a climate model to investigate the effectiveness of various urban heat mitigation strategies: cool roofs, street vegetation, green roofs, and reflective pavement. Our results show that by adopting highly reflective roofs, almost all the cities in the United States and southern Canada are transformed into white oases - cold islands caused by cool roofs at midday, with an average oasis effect of -3.4 K in the summer for the period 2071-2100, which offsets approximately 80 % of the greenhouse gas (GHG) warming projected for the same period under the RCP4.5 scenario. A UHI mitigation wedge consisting of cool roofs, street vegetation, and reflective pavement has the potential to eliminate the daytime UHI plus the GHG warming.

Current and future land use around a nationwide protected area network

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hamilton, Christopher M.; Martinuzzi, Sebastian; Plantinga, Andrew J.; Radeloff, Volker C.; Lewis, David J.; Thogmartin, Wayne E.; Heglund, Patricia J.; Pidgeon, Anna M.

2013-01-01

Land-use change around protected areas can reduce their effective size and limit their ability to conserve biodiversity because land-use change alters ecological processes and the ability of organisms to move freely among protected areas. The goal of our analysis was to inform conservation planning efforts for a nationwide network of protected lands by predicting future land use change. We evaluated the relative effect of three economic policy scenarios on land use surrounding the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service's National Wildlife Refuges. We predicted changes for three land-use classes (forest/range, crop/pasture, and urban) by 2051. Our results showed an increase in forest/range lands (by 1.9% to 4.7% depending on the scenario), a decrease in crop/pasture between 15.2% and 23.1%, and a substantial increase in urban land use between 28.5% and 57.0%. The magnitude of land-use change differed strongly among different USFWS administrative regions, with the most change in the Upper Midwestern US (approximately 30%), and the Southeastern and Northeastern US (25%), and the rest of the U.S. between 15 and 20%. Among our scenarios, changes in land use were similar, with the exception of our “restricted-urban-growth” scenario, which resulted in noticeably different rates of change. This demonstrates that it will likely be difficult to influence land-use change patterns with national policies and that understanding regional land-use dynamics is critical for effective management and planning of protected lands throughout the U.S.

Aggregate supply and demand modeling using GIS methods for the front range urban corridor, Colorado

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Karakas, Ahmet; Turner, Keith

2004-07-01

The combined use of allocation modeling and geographical information system (GIS) technologies for providing quantitative assessments of aggregate supply and demand is evaluated using representative data for the Front Range Urban Corridor (FRUC) in Colorado. The FRUC extends from the Colorado-Wyoming border to south of Colorado Springs, and includes Denver and the major urban growth regions of Colorado. In this area, aggregate demand is high and is increasing in response to population growth. Neighborhood opposition to the establishment of new pits and quarries and the depletion of many deposits are limiting aggregate supplies. Many sources are already covered by urban development or eliminated from production by zoning. Transport of aggregate by rail from distant resources may be required in the future. Two allocation-modeling procedures are tested in this study. Network analysis procedures provided within the ARC/INFO software, are unsatisfactory. Further aggregate allocation modeling used a model specifically designed for this task; a modified version of an existing Colorado School of Mines allocation model allows for more realistic market analyses. This study evaluated four scenarios. The entire region was evaluated with a scenario reflecting the current market and by a second scenario in which some existing suppliers were closed down and new potential suppliers were activated. The conditions within the Denver metropolitan area were studied before and after the introduction of three possible rail-to-truck aggregate distribution centers. GIS techniques are helpful in developing the required database to describe the Front Range Urban Corridor aggregate market conditions. GIS methods allow the digital representation of the regional road network, and the development of a distance matrix relating all suppliers and purchasers.

Dynamic metabolism modelling of urban water services--demonstrating effectiveness as a decision-support tool for Oslo, Norway.

PubMed

Venkatesh, G; Sægrov, Sveinung; Brattebø, Helge

2014-09-15

Urban water services are challenged from many perspectives and different stakeholders demand performance improvements along economic, social and environmental dimensions of sustainability. In response, urban water utilities systematically give more attention to criteria such as water safety, climate change adaptation and mitigation, environmental life cycle assessment (LCA), total cost efficiency, and on how to improve their operations within the water-energy-carbon nexus. The authors of this paper collaborated in the development of a 'Dynamic Metabolism Model' (DMM). The model is developed for generic use in the sustainability assessment of urban water services, and it has been initially tested for the city of Oslo, Norway. The purpose has been to adopt a holistic systemic perspective to the analysis of metabolism and environmental impacts of resource flows in urban water and wastewater systems, in order to offer a tool for the examination of future strategies and intervention options in such systems. This paper describes the model and its application to the city of Oslo for the analysis time period 2013-2040. The external factors impacting decision-making and interventions are introduced along with realistic scenarios developed for the testing, after consultation with officials at the Oslo Water and Wastewater Works (Norway). Possible interventions that the utility intends to set in motion are defined and numerically interpreted for incorporation into the model, and changes in the indicator values over the time period are determined. This paper aims to demonstrate the effectiveness and usefulness of the DMM, as a decision-support tool for water-wastewater utilities. The scenarios considered and interventions identified do not include all possible scenarios and interventions that can be relevant for water-wastewater utilities. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

A multi-stakeholder framework for urban runoff quality management: Application of social choice and bargaining techniques.

PubMed

Ghodsi, Seyed Hamed; Kerachian, Reza; Zahmatkesh, Zahra

2016-04-15

In this paper, an integrated framework is proposed for urban runoff management. To control and improve runoff quality and quantity, Low Impact Development (LID) practices are utilized. In order to determine the LIDs' areas and locations, the Non-dominated Sorting Genetic Algorithm-II (NSGA-II), which considers three objective functions of minimizing runoff volume, runoff pollution and implementation cost of LIDs, is utilized. In this framework, the Storm Water Management Model (SWMM) is used for stream flow simulation. The non-dominated solutions provided by the NSGA-II are considered as management scenarios. To select the most preferred scenario, interactions among the main stakeholders in the study area with conflicting utilities are incorporated by utilizing bargaining models including a non-cooperative game, Nash model and social choice procedures of Borda count and approval voting. Moreover, a new social choice procedure, named pairwise voting method, is proposed and applied. Based on each conflict resolution approach, a scenario is identified as the ideal solution providing the LIDs' areas, locations and implementation cost. The proposed framework is applied for urban water quality and quantity management in the northern part of Tehran metropolitan city, Iran. Results show that the proposed pairwise voting method tends to select a scenario with a higher percentage of reduction in TSS (Total Suspended Solid) load and runoff volume, in comparison with the Borda count and approval voting methods. Besides, the Nash method presents a management scenario with the highest cost for LIDs' implementation and the maximum values for percentage of runoff volume reduction and TSS removal. The results also signify that selection of an appropriate management scenario by stakeholders in the study area depends on the available financial resources and the relative importance of runoff quality improvement in comparison with reducing the runoff volume. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Water for the cities - The outlook

USGS Publications Warehouse

Schneider, William Joseph; Spieker, Andrew Maute

1969-01-01

Rapid expansion of urban areas, particularly in the large metropolitan complexes of the United States, is placing urban political entities in ever closer juxtaposition to each other. The large demand for water for each entity is resulting in competition for available sources and is rapidly reaching critical proportions. Increasing awareness of the role of water in our society further complicates this competition. Pollution abatement, recreation, wildlife conservation, and aesthetics are demands now recognized by both rural and urban areas. Future development of water resources must consider regional demands and resources. Only in this way can our reasonably abundant water resources meet the severe demands imposed by our rapidly expanding urban areas.

Mapping Impact of Urbanization in the Continental U.S. From 2001-2020

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Bounoua, Lahouari; Nigro, Joseph; Zhang, Ping; Thome, Kurtis

2016-01-01

We combine Landsat and Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) products to create observation-based and scenario-based maps characterizing distant-past, recent-past, present, and near-future land cover and land use change in the continental United States at a 5km scale. These maps show the nature and impact of urbanization across the continental U.S. from 2001 to 2020 with focus on the relationship between population and urban growth and how it varies across the U.S. The influence of culture on urbanization characteristics are revealed in the results at city-scale, helping to provide insight into both past and projected urbanization trends.

Mapping Impact of Urbanization in the Continental U.S. from 2001 - 2020

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Bounoua, Lahouari; Nigro, Joseph; Zhang, Ping; Thome, Kurtis

2016-01-01

We combine Landsat and Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) products to create observation-based and scenario-based maps characterizing distant-past, recent-past, present, and near-future land cover and land use change in the continental United States at a 5km scale. These maps show the nature and impact of urbanization across the continental U.S. from 2001 to 2020 with focus on the relationship between population and urban growth and how it varies across the U.S. The influence of culture on urbanization characteristics are revealed in the results at city-scale, helping to provide insight into both past and projected urbanization trends.

Goals, obstacles and effective strategies of wildfire mitigation programs in the Wildland-Urban Interface

Treesearch

Margaret A. Reams; Terry K. Haines; Cheryl R. Renner; Michael W. Wascom; Harish Kingre

2005-01-01

The dramatic expansion into the Wildland–Urban Interface (WUI) places property, natural assets, and human life at risk from wildfire destruction. The U.S. National Fire Plan encourages communities to implement laws and outreach programs for pre-fire planning to mitigate the risk to area residents. Starting in 2003, we surveyed the administrators of regulatory and...

Landscaping practices, land use patterns and stormwater quantity and quality in urban watersheds

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Miles, B.; Band, L. E.

2011-12-01

Increasing quantity and decreasing quality of urban stormwater threatens biodiversity in local streams and reservoirs, jeopardizes water supplies, and ultimately contributes to estuarine eutrophication. To estimate the effects that present and alternative landscaping practices and land use patterns may have on urban stormwater quantity and quality, simulations of existing land use/land cover using the Regional Hydro-Ecologic Simulation System (RHESSys), a process-based surface hydrology and biogeochemistry model, were developed for watersheds in Baltimore, MD (as part of the Baltimore Ecosystem Study (BES) NSF Long-Term Ecological Research (LTER) site) and Durham, NC (as part of the NSF Urban Long-Term Research Area (ULTRA) program). The influence of land use patterns and landscaping practices on nutrient export in urban watersheds has been explored as part of the BES; this work has focused on improving our understanding of how residential landscaping practices (i.e. lawn fertilization rates) vary across land use and socioeconomic gradients. Elsewhere, others have explored the political ecology of residential landscaping practices - seeking to understand the economic, political, and cultural influences on the practice of high-input residential turf-grass management. Going forward, my research will synthesize and extend this prior work. Rather than pre-supposing predominant residential land use patterns and landscaping practices (i.e. lower-density periphery development incorporating high-input turf landscapes) alternate land use and landscaping scenarios (e.g. higher-density/transit-oriented development, rain gardens, vegetable gardens, native plant/xeriscaping) will be developed through interviews/focus groups with stakeholders (citizens, public officials, developers, non-profits). These scenarios will then be applied to the RHESSys models already developed for catchments in Baltimore and Durham. The modeled scenario results will be used to identify alternate land use patterns and landscaping practices that would: (1) help to reduce non-point sources of nutrient pollution in urban watersheds; and (2) be likely to gain public support. This research will inform sustainable development policy while furthering interdisciplinary research in the fields of planning and water resource management.

Quantification and mapping of urban fluxes under climate change: Application of WRF-SUEWS model to Greater Porto area (Portugal)

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Rafael, S., E-mail: sandra.rafael@ua.pt

Climate change and the growth of urban populations are two of the main challenges facing Europe today. These issues are linked as climate change results in serious challenges for cities. Recent attention has focused on how urban surface-atmosphere exchanges of heat and water will be affected by climate change and the implications for urban planning and sustainability. In this study energy fluxes for Greater Porto area, Portugal, were estimated and the influence of the projected climate change evaluated. To accomplish this, the Weather Research and Forecasting Model (WRF) and the Surface Urban Energy and Water Balance Scheme (SUEWS) were appliedmore » for two climatological scenarios: a present (or reference, 1986–2005) scenario and a future scenario (2046–2065), in this case the Representative Concentration Pathway RCP8.5, which reflects the worst set of expectations (with the most onerous impacts). The results show that for the future climate conditions, the incoming shortwave radiation will increase by around 10%, the sensible heat flux around 40% and the net storage heat flux around 35%. In contrast, the latent heat flux will decrease about 20%. The changes in the magnitude of the different fluxes result in an increase of the net all-wave radiation by 15%. The implications of the changes of the energy balance on the meteorological variables are discussed, particularly in terms of temperature and precipitation. - Highlights: • Assessment of energy fluxes behaviour under past period and medium-term climate change projection. • Evaluation of climate change at urban scale. • Meteorological variables alters the partitioning of the energy fluxes. • Changes in the partition of the annual energy balance are found between the two analysed periods. • Increase in the magnitude of sensible and storage heat fluxes.« less

Exploring Relationships between North American Urban Form and Rates of Urban CO2 Emissions: A System Dynamics Approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Emmi, P. C.; Forster, C. B.; Mills, J. I.; Call, B. D.; Sabula, J.; Klewicki, J. C.; Pataki, D. E.; Peterson, T. R.

2004-12-01

Cities are the locus of North America's most intense consumption of fossil fuels. Thus the rate and character of urbanization influence the rate of urban CO2 released into the global atmosphere. The rate of rural-to-urban land conversion, and changes in the population density of urban land, are influenced by coupled changes in urban demographics and the local economy. Urban sprawl (a rapid expansion of urban land with low population densities) is governed by a self-reinforcing feedback effect between urban transportation infrastructure investments (road building) and urban land development where road building begets new urban neighborhoods that, in turn, induce more road building that begets additional new neighborhoods. If unrestrained, this feedback effect leads to the unrestrained expansion of urban sprawl, urban vehicular travel and traffic congestion. This self-reinforcing feedback loop forms a key dynamic that controls the rate at which CO2-emitting fossil fuels are burned for transportation, electricity production, heating, and commercial/industrial processes. In a rapidly sprawling city residents must travel increasingly greater distances between work, shopping, and home while commercial service vehicles must travel to increasingly remote residential locations. The increasing number of vehicle trips and vehicle miles traveled, combined with the growing prevalence of ever-lower density urban land development, leads to a rapid increase in mobile and stationary CO2 emissions. A more compact and punctuated form of urban development with higher-density and mixed-use urban activity centers leads to reduced CO2 emissions. Those who shape urban development policy are often unconcerned by increasing CO2 emissions unless they can be linked to: (1) local concerns about criteria air pollutant emissions and air quality, (2) the dependency of federal infrastructure funding on meeting ambient air quality standards, and (3) the consequences of human exposure to health risks associated with declining air quality. The dynamic simulation of urban systems demonstrates that a suite of policies can be found to diminish sprawl and defeat traffic congestion thereby safeguarding the vitality a city. A systems thinking approach, facilitated by a community engagement process, has further enabled community opinion leaders and policy makers to map the key features, linkages and feedbacks of a complex, CO2-emitting urban ecosystem. A corresponding lumped-parameter, simulation model provides a framework for decision makers and stakeholders to explore the consequences of alternative options for managing urban growth, sprawl and congestion while also reducing CO2 emissions.

Technical geothermal potential of urban subsurface influenced by land surface effects

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rivera, Jaime A.; Blum, Philipp; Bayer, Peter

2016-04-01

Changes in land use are probably one of the most notorious anthropogenic perturbations in urban environments. They significantly change the coupled thermal regime at the ground surface leading in most cases to increased ground surface temperatures (GST). The associated elevated vertical heat fluxes act at different scales and can influence the thermal conditions in several tens of meters in the subsurface. Urban subsurface thus often stores a higher amount of heat than less affected rural surroundings. The stored heat is regarded as a potential source of low-enthalpy geothermal energy to supply the heating energy demands in urban areas. In this work, we explore the technical geothermal potential of urban subsurface via ground coupled heat pumps with borehole heat exchangers (BHE). This is tackled by semi-analytical line-source equations. The commonly used response factors or g-functions are modified to include transient land surface effects. By including this additional source of heat, the new formulation allows to analyse the effect of pre-existing urban warming as well as different exploitation schemes fulfilling standard renewable and sustainable criteria. In our generalized reference scenario, it is demonstrated that energy gains for a single BHE may be up to 40 % when compared to non-urbanized conditions. For a scenario including the interaction of multiple BHEs, results indicate that it would be possible to supply between 6 % and 27 % of the heating demands in Central European urban settlements in a renewable way. The methodology is also applied to a study case of the city of Zurich, Switzerland, where the detailed evolution of land use is available.

Water-Constrained Electric Sector Capacity Expansion Modeling Under Climate Change Scenarios

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cohen, S. M.; Macknick, J.; Miara, A.; Vorosmarty, C. J.; Averyt, K.; Meldrum, J.; Corsi, F.; Prousevitch, A.; Rangwala, I.

2015-12-01

Over 80% of U.S. electricity generation uses a thermoelectric process, which requires significant quantities of water for power plant cooling. This water requirement exposes the electric sector to vulnerabilities related to shifts in water availability driven by climate change as well as reductions in power plant efficiencies. Electricity demand is also sensitive to climate change, which in most of the United States leads to warming temperatures that increase total cooling-degree days. The resulting demand increase is typically greater for peak demand periods. This work examines the sensitivity of the development and operations of the U.S. electric sector to the impacts of climate change using an electric sector capacity expansion model that endogenously represents seasonal and local water resource availability as well as climate impacts on water availability, electricity demand, and electricity system performance. Capacity expansion portfolios and water resource implications from 2010 to 2050 are shown at high spatial resolution under a series of climate scenarios. Results demonstrate the importance of water availability for future electric sector capacity planning and operations, especially under more extreme hotter and drier climate scenarios. In addition, region-specific changes in electricity demand and water resources require region-specific responses that depend on local renewable resource availability and electricity market conditions. Climate change and the associated impacts on water availability and temperature can affect the types of power plants that are built, their location, and their impact on regional water resources.

Power plant fuel switching and air quality in a tropical, forested environment

DOE PAGES

Medeiros, Adan S. S.; Calderaro, Gisele; Guimarães, Patricia C.; ...

2017-07-26

How a changing energy matrix for electricity production affects air quality is considered for an urban region in a tropical, forested environment. Manaus, the largest city in the central Amazon Basin of Brazil, is in the process of changing its energy matrix for electricity production from fuel oil and diesel to natural gas over an approximately 10-year period, with a minor contribution by hydropower. Three scenarios of urban air quality, specifically afternoon ozone concentrations, were simulated using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF-Chem) model. The first scenario used fuel oil and diesel for electricity production, which was the reality inmore » 2008. The second scenario was based on the fuel mix from 2014, the most current year for which data were available. The third scenario considered nearly complete use of natural gas for electricity production, which is the anticipated future, possibly for 2018. For each case, inventories of anthropogenic emissions were based on electricity generation, refinery operations, and transportation. Transportation and refinery operations were held constant across the three scenarios to focus on effects of power plant fuel switching in a tropical context. The simulated NO x and CO emissions for the urban region decrease by 89 and 55 %, respectively, after the complete change in the energy matrix. The results of the simulations indicate that a change to natural gas significantly decreases maximum afternoon ozone concentrations over the population center, reducing ozone by >70 % for the most polluted days. The sensitivity of ozone concentrations to the fuel switchover is consistent with a NO x-limited regime, as expected for a tropical forest having high emissions of biogenic volatile organic compounds, high water vapor concentrations, and abundant solar radiation. There are key differences in a shifting energy matrix in a tropical, forested environment compared to other world environments. Therefore, policies favoring the burning of natural gas in place of fuel oil and diesel have great potential for ozone reduction and improved air quality for growing urban regions located in tropical, forested environments around the world.« less

Power plant fuel switching and air quality in a tropical, forested environment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Medeiros, Adan S. S.; Calderaro, Gisele; Guimarães, Patricia C.; Magalhaes, Mateus R.; Morais, Marcos V. B.; Rafee, Sameh A. A.; Ribeiro, Igor O.; Andreoli, Rita V.; Martins, Jorge A.; Martins, Leila D.; Martin, Scot T.; Souza, Rodrigo A. F.

2017-07-01

How a changing energy matrix for electricity production affects air quality is considered for an urban region in a tropical, forested environment. Manaus, the largest city in the central Amazon Basin of Brazil, is in the process of changing its energy matrix for electricity production from fuel oil and diesel to natural gas over an approximately 10-year period, with a minor contribution by hydropower. Three scenarios of urban air quality, specifically afternoon ozone concentrations, were simulated using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF-Chem) model. The first scenario used fuel oil and diesel for electricity production, which was the reality in 2008. The second scenario was based on the fuel mix from 2014, the most current year for which data were available. The third scenario considered nearly complete use of natural gas for electricity production, which is the anticipated future, possibly for 2018. For each case, inventories of anthropogenic emissions were based on electricity generation, refinery operations, and transportation. Transportation and refinery operations were held constant across the three scenarios to focus on effects of power plant fuel switching in a tropical context. The simulated NOx and CO emissions for the urban region decrease by 89 and 55 %, respectively, after the complete change in the energy matrix. The results of the simulations indicate that a change to natural gas significantly decreases maximum afternoon ozone concentrations over the population center, reducing ozone by > 70 % for the most polluted days. The sensitivity of ozone concentrations to the fuel switchover is consistent with a NOx-limited regime, as expected for a tropical forest having high emissions of biogenic volatile organic compounds, high water vapor concentrations, and abundant solar radiation. There are key differences in a shifting energy matrix in a tropical, forested environment compared to other world environments. Policies favoring the burning of natural gas in place of fuel oil and diesel have great potential for ozone reduction and improved air quality for growing urban regions located in tropical, forested environments around the world.

Power plant fuel switching and air quality in a tropical, forested environment

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Medeiros, Adan S. S.; Calderaro, Gisele; Guimarães, Patricia C.

How a changing energy matrix for electricity production affects air quality is considered for an urban region in a tropical, forested environment. Manaus, the largest city in the central Amazon Basin of Brazil, is in the process of changing its energy matrix for electricity production from fuel oil and diesel to natural gas over an approximately 10-year period, with a minor contribution by hydropower. Three scenarios of urban air quality, specifically afternoon ozone concentrations, were simulated using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF-Chem) model. The first scenario used fuel oil and diesel for electricity production, which was the reality inmore » 2008. The second scenario was based on the fuel mix from 2014, the most current year for which data were available. The third scenario considered nearly complete use of natural gas for electricity production, which is the anticipated future, possibly for 2018. For each case, inventories of anthropogenic emissions were based on electricity generation, refinery operations, and transportation. Transportation and refinery operations were held constant across the three scenarios to focus on effects of power plant fuel switching in a tropical context. The simulated NO x and CO emissions for the urban region decrease by 89 and 55 %, respectively, after the complete change in the energy matrix. The results of the simulations indicate that a change to natural gas significantly decreases maximum afternoon ozone concentrations over the population center, reducing ozone by >70 % for the most polluted days. The sensitivity of ozone concentrations to the fuel switchover is consistent with a NO x-limited regime, as expected for a tropical forest having high emissions of biogenic volatile organic compounds, high water vapor concentrations, and abundant solar radiation. There are key differences in a shifting energy matrix in a tropical, forested environment compared to other world environments. Therefore, policies favoring the burning of natural gas in place of fuel oil and diesel have great potential for ozone reduction and improved air quality for growing urban regions located in tropical, forested environments around the world.« less

Variational Iterative Refinement Source Term Estimation Algorithm Assessment for Rural and Urban Environments

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Delle Monache, L.; Rodriguez, L. M.; Meech, S.; Hahn, D.; Betancourt, T.; Steinhoff, D.

2016-12-01

It is necessary to accurately estimate the initial source characteristics in the event of an accidental or intentional release of a Chemical, Biological, Radiological, or Nuclear (CBRN) agent into the atmosphere. The accurate estimation of the source characteristics are important because many times they are unknown and the Atmospheric Transport and Dispersion (AT&D) models rely heavily on these estimates to create hazard assessments. To correctly assess the source characteristics in an operational environment where time is critical, the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) has developed a Source Term Estimation (STE) method, known as the Variational Iterative Refinement STE algorithm (VIRSA). VIRSA consists of a combination of modeling systems. These systems include an AT&D model, its corresponding STE model, a Hybrid Lagrangian-Eulerian Plume Model (H-LEPM), and its mathematical adjoint model. In an operational scenario where we have information regarding the infrastructure of a city, the AT&D model used is the Urban Dispersion Model (UDM) and when using this model in VIRSA we refer to the system as uVIRSA. In all other scenarios where we do not have the city infrastructure information readily available, the AT&D model used is the Second-order Closure Integrated PUFF model (SCIPUFF) and the system is referred to as sVIRSA. VIRSA was originally developed using SCIPUFF 2.4 for the Defense Threat Reduction Agency and integrated into the Hazard Prediction and Assessment Capability and Joint Program for Information Systems Joint Effects Model. The results discussed here are the verification and validation of the upgraded system with SCIPUFF 3.0 and the newly implemented UDM capability. To verify uVIRSA and sVIRSA, synthetic concentration observation scenarios were created in urban and rural environments and the results of this verification are shown. Finally, we validate the STE performance of uVIRSA using scenarios from the Joint Urban 2003 (JU03) experiment, which was held in Oklahoma City and also validate the performance of sVIRSA using scenarios from the FUsing Sensor Integrated Observing Network (FUSION) Field Trial 2007 (FFT07), held at Dugway Proving Grounds in rural Utah.

Modeling The Urban Impact On Semiarid Surface Climate: A Case Study In Marrakesh, Morocco

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lachir, Asia; Bounoua, Lahouari; Zhang, Ping; Thome, Kurtis; Messouli, Mohamed

2016-01-01

We combine Landsat and MODIS data in the Simple Biosphere Model to assess the impact of urbanization on surface climate in a semiarid city in North Africa. The model simulates highest temperatures in urban class, with spring average maximum temperature differences to other land cover classes ranging between 1.6 C and 6.0 C. During summer, these maximum temperature differences are smallest (0.5 C) with barelands and highest (8.3 C) with irrigated lawns. This excess heating is simulated above and beyond a seasonal temperature average of about 30 C during spring and 44 C during summer. On annual mean, a full urbanization scenario decreases the carbon fixation by 0.13 MtC and increases the daytime mean surface temperature by 1.3 C. This may boost the city energy consumption by 5.72%. Under a 'smart growth' scenario, whereby the city expands on barelands to cover 50% of the study region and all remaining barelands converted to orchards, the carbon fixation is enhanced by 0.04 MtC with a small daytime temperature increase of 0.2 C. Our results indicate that vegetation can mitigate the urban heating. The hydrological cycle indicates that highest ratio of surface runoff to precipitation (43.8%) occurs in urban areas, versus only 16.7 % for all cover types combined.

Modeling the Urban Impact on Semiarid Surface Climate: A Case Study in Marrakech, Morocco

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lachir, Asia; Bounoua, Lahouari; Zhang, Ping; Thome, Kurtis; Moussouli, Mohamed

2016-01-01

We combine Landsat and MODIS data in the Simple Biosphere Model to assess the impact of urbanization on surface climate in a semiarid city in North Africa. The model simulates highest temperatures in urban class, with spring average maximum temperature differences to other land cover classes ranging between 1.6 C and 6.0 C. During summer, these maximum temperature differences are smallest (0.5 C) with barelands and highest (8.3 C) with irrigated lawns. This excess heating is simulated above and beyond a seasonal temperature average of about 30 C during spring and 44 C during summer. On annual mean, a full urbanization scenario decreases the carbon fixation by 0.13 MtC and increases the daytime mean surface temperature by 1.3 C. This may boost the city energy consumption by 5.72%. Under a 'smart growth' scenario, whereby the city expands on barelands to cover 50% of the study region and all remaining barelands converted to orchards, the carbon fixation is enhanced by 0.04 MtC with a small daytime temperature increase of 0.2 C. Our results indicate that vegetation can mitigate the urban heating. The hydrological cycle indicates that highest ratio of surface runoff to precipitation (43.8%) occurs in urban areas, versus only 16.7 % for all cover types combined.

Evaluating the impact and risk of pluvial flash flood on intra-urban road network: A case study in the city center of Shanghai, China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yin, Jie; Yu, Dapeng; Yin, Zhane; Liu, Min; He, Qing

2016-06-01

Urban pluvial flood are attracting growing public concern due to rising intense precipitation and increasing consequences. Accurate risk assessment is critical to an efficient urban pluvial flood management, particularly in transportation sector. This paper describes an integrated methodology, which initially makes use of high resolution 2D inundation modeling and flood depth-dependent measure to evaluate the potential impact and risk of pluvial flash flood on road network in the city center of Shanghai, China. Intensity-Duration-Frequency relationships of Shanghai rainstorm and Chicago Design Storm are combined to generate ensemble rainfall scenarios. A hydrodynamic model (FloodMap-HydroInundation2D) is used to simulate overland flow and flood inundation for each scenario. Furthermore, road impact and risk assessment are respectively conducted by a new proposed algorithm and proxy. Results suggest that the flood response is a function of spatio-temporal distribution of precipitation and local characteristics (i.e. drainage and topography), and pluvial flash flood is found to lead to proportionate but nonlinear impact on intra-urban road inundation risk. The approach tested here would provide more detailed flood information for smart management of urban street network and may be applied to other big cities where road flood risk is evolving in the context of climate change and urbanization.

Effect and relevance of the artificial drainage system when assessing the hydrologic impact of the imperviousness distribution within the watershed

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Thenoux, M.; Gironas, J. A.; Mejia, A.

2013-12-01

Cities and urban growth have relevant environmental and social impacts, which could eventually be enhanced or reduced during the urban planning process. From the point of view of hydrology, impermeability and natural soil compaction are one of the main problems that urbanization brings to watershed. Previous studies demonstrate and quantify the impacts of the distribution of imperviousness in a watershed, both on runoff volumes and flow, and the quality and integrity of streams and receiving bodies. Moreover, some studies have investigated the optimal distribution of imperviousness, based on simulating different scenarios of land use change and its effects on runoff, mostly at the outlet of the watershed. However, these studies typically do not address the impact of artificial drainage system associated with the imperviousness scenarios, despite it is known that storm sewer coverage affects the flow accumulation and generation of flow hydrographs. This study seeks to quantify the effects and relevance of the artificial system when it comes to assess the hydrological impacts of the spatial distribution of imperviousness and to determine the characteristics of this influence. For this purpose, an existing model to generate imperviousness distribution scenarios is coupled with a model developed to automatically generate artificial drainage networks. These models are applied to a natural watershed to generate a variety of imperviousness and storm sewer layout scenarios, which are evaluate with a morphoclimatic instantaneous unit hydrograph model. We first tested the ability of this approach to represent the joint effects of imperviousness (i.e. level and distribution) and storm sewer coverage. We then quantified the effects of these variables on the hydrological response, considering also different return period in order to take into account the variability of the precipitation regime. Overall, we show that the layout and spatial coverage of the storm sewer system affect the hydrologic response, and that these effects depend on the degree of imperviousness and the characteristics of the precipitation. Results of this research improve our understanding on how urban planning decisions can contribute to minimize the hydrologic and environmental impacts of urban development.

Evaluating the Effects of Land Use Planning for Non-Point Source Pollution Based on a System Dynamics Approach in China

PubMed Central

Kuai, Peng; Li, Wei; Liu, Nianfeng

2015-01-01

Urbanization is proceeding rapidly in several developing countries such as China. This accelerating urbanization alters the existing land use types in a way that results in more Non-Point Source (NPS) pollution to local surface waters. Reasonable land use planning is necessary. This paper compares seven planning scenarios of a case study area, namely Wulijie, China, from the perspective of NPS pollution. A System Dynamics (SD) model was built for the comparison to adequately capture the planning complexity. These planning scenarios, which were developed by combining different land use intensities (LUIs) and construction speeds (CSs), were then simulated. The results show that compared to scenario S1 (business as usual) all other scenarios will introduce more NPS pollution (with an incremental rate of 22%-70%) to Wulijie. Scenario S6 was selected as the best because it induced relatively less NPS pollution while simultaneously maintaining a considerable development rate. Although LUIs represent a more critical factor compared to CSs, we conclude that both LUIs and CSs need to be taken into account to make the planning more environmentally friendly. Considering the power of SD in decision support, it is recommended that land use planning should take into consideration findings acquired from SD simulations. PMID:26267482

Using long time series of Landsat data to monitor impervious surface dynamics: a case study in the Zhoushan Islands

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, Xiaoping; Pan, Delu; Chen, Jianyu; Zhan, Yuanzeng; Mao, Zhihua

2013-01-01

Islands are an important part of the marine ecosystem. Increasing impervious surfaces in the Zhoushan Islands due to new development and increased population have an ecological impact on the runoff and water quality. Based on time-series classification and the complement of vegetation fraction in urban regions, Landsat thematic mapper and other high-resolution satellite images were applied to monitor the dynamics of impervious surface area (ISA) in the Zhoushan Islands from 1986 to 2011. Landsat-derived ISA results were validated by the high-resolution Worldview-2 and aerial photographs. The validation shows that mean relative errors of these ISA maps are <15 %. The results reveal that the ISA in the Zhoushan Islands increased from 19.2 km2 in 1986 to 86.5 km2 in 2011, and the period from 2006 to 2011 had the fastest expansion rate of 5.59 km2 per year. The major land conversions to high densities of ISA were from the tidal zone and arable lands. The expansions of ISA were unevenly distributed and most of them were located along the periphery of these islands. Time-series maps revealed that ISA expansions happened continuously over the last 25 years. Our analysis indicated that the policy and the topography were the dominant factors controlling the spatial patterns of ISA and its expansions in the Zhoushan Islands. With continuous urbanization processes, the rapid ISA expansions may not be stopped in the near feature.

Operational Group Sandy technical progress report

USGS Publications Warehouse

,

2013-01-01

This report documents results from the March 2013 deployment of the OGS. It includes background information on Hurricane Sandy and the federal response; the OGS methodology; scenarios for Hurricane Sandy’s impact on coastal communities and urban ecosystems; potential interventions to improve regional resilience to future major storms; a discussion of scenario results; and lessons learned about the OGS process.

Microgeographic Population Structuring of Culex quinquefasciatus (Diptera: Culicidae) From São Paulo, Brazil.

PubMed

Wilke, André Barretto Bruno; de Carvalho, Gabriela Cristina; Marrelli, Mauro Toledo

2017-11-07

The continuing worldwide increase in urbanization can potentially have a major impact on the epidemiology of vector-borne diseases, as anthropogenic changes to the environment are known to favor a few species of mosquitoes that can thrive in urban environments. Culex quinquefasciatus Say (Diptera: Culicidae) is found extensively in urban habitats, where it lives in degraded, polluted areas and is often the only species of mosquito capable to surviving under such conditions. Traditional mosquito control strategies no longer have the desired effect due to the several factors such as insecticide resistance, abundance of breeding sites, lack of proper sewage and sanitation, and absence of natural predator, leading Cx. quinquefasciatus populations to increase its numbers in cities. In this study, five Cx. quinquefasciatus populations were analyzed using 12 microsatellite markers to investigate whether the dynamics of these populations are being modulated by urbanization and how they are structured in the city of São Paulo, Brazil. Our results indicate that only one of the study populations (the population from Anhanguera Park) exhibited evidence of expansion. The populations from Ibirapuera Park and Piqueri Park, the most urbanized regions of the areas studied, did not show signs of expansion. A better understanding of the mechanisms involved in the dispersal of Cx. quinquefasciatus and its colonization of new areas, as well as the species' demographic patterns and how these are associated with urbanization, particularly in areas undergoing a rural-to-urban transformation, such as Anhanguera Park, is of great importance for mosquito control. © The Authors 2017. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of Entomological Society of America. All rights reserved. For permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.

Rates, trends, causes, and consequences of urban land-use change in the United States

USGS Publications Warehouse

Acevedo, William; Taylor, Janis L.; Hester, Dave J.; Mladinich, Carol S.; Glavac, Sonya

2006-01-01

Over the past 200 years, changes to the Nation's urban areas have been dramatic. Changes that have occurred relate both to the location of urban centers, as well as to the spatial extent of land dedicated to urban uses. Urban areas at the beginning of the 19th century were located primarily along major rivers or bodies of water, as waterways provided the most efficient means for transporting goods and people. As railroads became prominent, urban areas were able to expand or develop away from the water's edge.Geographic features such as steep slopes, wetlands, and lack of freshwater impeded settlement. In 1902, the National Reclamation Act was passed and with it came funding for the construction of water storage and transportation systems. This encouraged urban expansion in the arid west. After World War II, the Nation's urban areas continued to expand outward away from the city center as populations migrated to the margins of urban areas, where land was less expensive and the environment was less polluted. In 1956, the Federal Highway Act and the building of Interstate highways further facilitated urban expansion across the Unite States. Rural towns, small industrial centers, and farmland were engulfed by expanding urban centers.Over the past 200 years, numerous social, cultural, economic, and political incentives have encouraged urban expansion. In the 1800s, the industrial revolution influenced where people lived and worked. Many people shifted from agricultural production in rural areas to factory work in urban centers. Advances in transportation systems, such as rail transport in the 19th and early 20th centuries, followed by the mass production of the automobile and convenient air travel, facilitated a mobile society and a national economy. Economic growth and a population boom after World War II spurred increased suburbanization-the shifting of residential areas to the outlying section of a city or to a separate municipality-on the fringe of urban areas. Other economic and political incentives that shaped the urban environment included Federally backed home loans, credit and tax mechanisms that encouraged new development, and less restrictive municipal ordinances regarding building codes, environmental laws, and zoning regulations.Throughout the past two centuries land use changes associated with increasing urbanization have had impacts that resonate at local, regional, and even national scales. Landscape changes resulting from urbanization can be mapped and studied over time. Understanding these changes requires a study of the causes of change as related to social, economic, and political influences. Understanding these changes also requires analysis of how urbanization physically spreads across the landscape. The knowledge gained from studying urban land-use change can be helpful when it flows into local, regional, and national decisionmaking that relates to land-use decisions that impact the people, the economy, and the environment. Deriving a correlation between physical change and the explanations of the causes of change can help anticipate and mitigate the impacts of future change.Throughout the past two centuries changes to the Nation's urban areas are inextricably linked to population changes. The Nation's population started growing slowly along the eastern seaboard during the 17th and 18th centuries, accelerated in the second half of the 19th century, and then continued steadily spreading westward throughout the next hundred years. Currently, nearly 80 percent of the U.S. population resides in urban areas. Land area dedicated to urban use continues to expand, although differently than it has in the past. Most newly urbanized areas are much less densely populated and less intensively developed than they were 50 to 100 years ago.

City, region, and in between: New York City's water supply and the insights of regional history.

PubMed

Soll, David

2012-01-01

Urban historians have greatly expanded their geographical purview in recent years, incorporating suburbs and hinterlands into their analysis of social and environmental change. Urban environmental historians and suburban historians have played a critical role in the regionalization of urban history over the last decade. This case study of the development of New York City’s water supply reveals the benefits of taking a regional approach to urban history. From the New York Public Library to Central Park’s Great Lawn to neighborhood parks, the New York City landscape bears the traces of the continuous development of the city’s water network. Expansion of the water system in rural hinterlands enabled municipal officials to put urban reservoirs to new uses, creating some of the city’s most beloved public spaces. The rehabilitation of urban infrastructure underscores the intimate linkages between rural development and the urban built environment.

Impact of land use and land cover changes on the ambient temperature in a middle scale city, Takamatsu, in Southwest Japan.

PubMed

Nonomura, Atsuko; Kitahara, Mutsuko; Takuro Masuda

2009-08-01

There is a lack of information on urban heat island impact on the thermal environment due to low populated urban sprawl, although densely populated urban sprawl impact has been identified by several researchers. The Takamatsu area has recently developed in a low populated urban sprawl style without any increase in population. This paper examined the impact of a low populated urban sprawl on the thermal environment through an analysis of the last 30 years data set and investigated the contribution of vegetation fraction and population density to the temperature trend. As a consequence, it was shown that one of the most significant causative factors of temperature increase is an expansion of non-vegetated area even without population growth. This result implied that vegetated zones should be maintained in urban areas in order to realize sustainable urbanization.

Assessing the effects of Climate Change on Urban Pluvial Flooding to provide a Risk Management Framework

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rianna, G.; Mercogliano, P.

2017-12-01

Urbanization increases the flood risk because of heightened vulnerability, stemming from population concentration and hazard due to soil sealing affecting the largest part of urban settlements and reducing the concentration time of interested basins. Furthermore, current and future hazards are exacerbated by expected increases in extreme rainfall events due to Climate Changes (CC) making inadequate urban drainage infrastructures designed under the assumption of steady conditions. In this work, we present a modeling chain/algorithm to assess potential increase in pluvial flood hazard able to take into account CC forcing. The adopted simulation chain reckon on three main elements: Regional Climate Model, COSMO_CLM, dynamically downscaling GCM CMCC_CM (Scoccimarro et al., 2011) and optimized, at high resolution (about 8km), by Bucchignani et al. (2015) on Italy provide projections about precipitation up to 2100 under two concentration scenarios (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5). Such projections are used in Equidistance Quantile Mapping (EQM) approach, developed by Srivastav et al. (2014) to estimate expected variations in IDF (Intensity-Duration-Frequency) curves calculated through Generalized Extreme Value (GEV) approach on the basis of available rainfall data. To this aim, 1971-2000 observations are used as reference. Finally, a 1-D/2-D coupled urban drainage/flooding model forced by IDF (current and projected) is used to simulate storm-sewer surcharge and surface inundation to establish the variations in urban flooding risk. As test case is considered the city center of Naples (Southern Italy). In this respective, the sewage and urban drainage network is highly complex due to the historical and subsequent transformations of the city. Under such constraints, the reliability of the results maybe deeply conditioned by uncertainties not undermining the illustrative purposes of the work. Briefly, EQM returns a remarkable increase in extreme precipitations; such increase is driven by concentration scenarios (higher for RCP8.5) and investigated time horizon (more significant for 2071-2100 time span). Furthermore, results provided by hydraulic models clearly highlight the inadequacy of the actual drainage system especially under a RCP8.5-driven scenario showing large portions of the city center flooded.

Transportation Energy Futures Series: Alternative Fuel Infrastructure Expansion: Costs, Resources, Production Capacity, and Retail Availability for Low-Carbon Scenarios

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Melaina, M. W.; Heath, G.; Sandor, D.

2013-04-01

Achieving the Department of Energy target of an 80% reduction in greenhouse gas emissions by 2050 depends on transportation-related strategies combining technology innovation, market adoption, and changes in consumer behavior. This study examines expanding low-carbon transportation fuel infrastructure to achieve deep GHG emissions reductions, with an emphasis on fuel production facilities and retail components serving light-duty vehicles. Three distinct low-carbon fuel supply scenarios are examined: Portfolio: Successful deployment of a range of advanced vehicle and fuel technologies; Combustion: Market dominance by hybridized internal combustion engine vehicles fueled by advanced biofuels and natural gas; Electrification: Market dominance by electric drive vehiclesmore » in the LDV sector, including battery electric, plug-in hybrid, and fuel cell vehicles, that are fueled by low-carbon electricity and hydrogen. A range of possible low-carbon fuel demand outcomes are explored in terms of the scale and scope of infrastructure expansion requirements and evaluated based on fuel costs, energy resource utilization, fuel production infrastructure expansion, and retail infrastructure expansion for LDVs. This is one of a series of reports produced as a result of the Transportation Energy Futures (TEF) project, a Department of Energy-sponsored multi-agency project initiated to pinpoint underexplored transportation-related strategies for abating GHGs and reducing petroleum dependence.« less

Climate change, urbanization and disease: summer in the city….

PubMed

Reiner, Robert C; Smith, David L; Gething, Peter W

2015-03-01

Climate change and urbanization can alter the burden of human diseases. The tropics, a region that includes the poorest populations and highest disease burdens, are expected to get slightly hotter and substantially more urban. Studies have projected changing burdens under different climate or urbanization scenarios, but it remains unclear what will happen if both happen at once. Interactions could amplify disease burdens, improve health overall, or shift burdens around. Social planners need better data on contemporary seasonal disease incidence patterns across the spectrum of climate, urbanicity and socio-economic status. How climate change, urbanization and health interact must be understood to adequately plan for the future. © The Author 2014. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of Royal Society of Tropical Medicine and Hygiene.

Developing 3D morphologies for simulating building energy demand in urban microclimates

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

New, Joshua Ryan; Omitaomu, Olufemi A.; Allen, Melissa R.

In order to simulate the effect of interactions between urban morphology and microclimate on demand for heating and cooling in buildings, we utilize source elevation data to create 3D building geometries at the neighborhood and city scale. Additionally, we use urban morphology concepts to design virtual morphologies for simulation scenarios in an undeveloped land parcel. Using these morphologies, we compute building-energy parameters such as the density for each surface and the frontal area index for each of the buildings to be able to effectively model the microclimate for the urban area.

Smart City Pilot Projects Using LoRa and IEEE802.15.4 Technologies.

PubMed

Pasolini, Gianni; Buratti, Chiara; Feltrin, Luca; Zabini, Flavio; De Castro, Cristina; Verdone, Roberto; Andrisano, Oreste

2018-04-06

Information and Communication Technologies (ICTs), through wireless communications and the Internet of Things (IoT) paradigm, are the enabling keys for transforming traditional cities into smart cities, since they provide the core infrastructure behind public utilities and services. However, to be effective, IoT-based services could require different technologies and network topologies, even when addressing the same urban scenario. In this paper, we highlight this aspect and present two smart city testbeds developed in Italy. The first one concerns a smart infrastructure for public lighting and relies on a heterogeneous network using the IEEE 802.15.4 short-range communication technology, whereas the second one addresses smart-building applications and is based on the LoRa low-rate, long-range communication technology. The smart lighting scenario is discussed providing the technical details and the economic benefits of a large-scale (around 3000 light poles) flexible and modular implementation of a public lighting infrastructure, while the smart-building testbed is investigated, through measurement campaigns and simulations, assessing the coverage and the performance of the LoRa technology in a real urban scenario. Results show that a proper parameter setting is needed to cover large urban areas while maintaining the airtime sufficiently low to keep packet losses at satisfactory levels.

Smart City Pilot Projects Using LoRa and IEEE802.15.4 Technologies

PubMed Central

Buratti, Chiara; Zabini, Flavio; De Castro, Cristina; Verdone, Roberto; Andrisano, Oreste

2018-01-01

Information and Communication Technologies (ICTs), through wireless communications and the Internet of Things (IoT) paradigm, are the enabling keys for transforming traditional cities into smart cities, since they provide the core infrastructure behind public utilities and services. However, to be effective, IoT-based services could require different technologies and network topologies, even when addressing the same urban scenario. In this paper, we highlight this aspect and present two smart city testbeds developed in Italy. The first one concerns a smart infrastructure for public lighting and relies on a heterogeneous network using the IEEE 802.15.4 short-range communication technology, whereas the second one addresses smart-building applications and is based on the LoRa low-rate, long-range communication technology. The smart lighting scenario is discussed providing the technical details and the economic benefits of a large-scale (around 3000 light poles) flexible and modular implementation of a public lighting infrastructure, while the smart-building testbed is investigated, through measurement campaigns and simulations, assessing the coverage and the performance of the LoRa technology in a real urban scenario. Results show that a proper parameter setting is needed to cover large urban areas while maintaining the airtime sufficiently low to keep packet losses at satisfactory levels. PMID:29642391

Future Coastal Population Growth and Exposure to Sea-Level Rise and Coastal Flooding - A Global Assessment

PubMed Central

Neumann, Barbara; Vafeidis, Athanasios T.; Zimmermann, Juliane; Nicholls, Robert J.

2015-01-01

Coastal zones are exposed to a range of coastal hazards including sea-level rise with its related effects. At the same time, they are more densely populated than the hinterland and exhibit higher rates of population growth and urbanisation. As this trend is expected to continue into the future, we investigate how coastal populations will be affected by such impacts at global and regional scales by the years 2030 and 2060. Starting from baseline population estimates for the year 2000, we assess future population change in the low-elevation coastal zone and trends in exposure to 100-year coastal floods based on four different sea-level and socio-economic scenarios. Our method accounts for differential growth of coastal areas against the land-locked hinterland and for trends of urbanisation and expansive urban growth, as currently observed, but does not explicitly consider possible displacement or out-migration due to factors such as sea-level rise. We combine spatially explicit estimates of the baseline population with demographic data in order to derive scenario-driven projections of coastal population development. Our scenarios show that the number of people living in the low-elevation coastal zone, as well as the number of people exposed to flooding from 1-in-100 year storm surge events, is highest in Asia. China, India, Bangladesh, Indonesia and Viet Nam are estimated to have the highest total coastal population exposure in the baseline year and this ranking is expected to remain largely unchanged in the future. However, Africa is expected to experience the highest rates of population growth and urbanisation in the coastal zone, particularly in Egypt and sub-Saharan countries in Western and Eastern Africa. The results highlight countries and regions with a high degree of exposure to coastal flooding and help identifying regions where policies and adaptive planning for building resilient coastal communities are not only desirable but essential. Furthermore, we identify needs for further research and scope for improvement in this kind of scenario-based exposure analysis. PMID:25760037