A coupled model approach to reduce nonpoint-source pollution resulting from predicted urban growth: A case study in the Ambos Nogales watershed

USGS Publications Warehouse

Norman, L.M.; Guertin, D.P.; Feller, M.

2008-01-01

The development of new approaches for understanding processes of urban development and their environmental effects, as well as strategies for sustainable management, is essential in expanding metropolitan areas. This study illustrates the potential of linking urban growth and watershed models to identify problem areas and support long-term watershed planning. Sediment is a primary source of nonpoint-source pollution in surface waters. In urban areas, sediment is intermingled with other surface debris in transport. In an effort to forecast the effects of development on surface-water quality, changes predicted in urban areas by the SLEUTH urban growth model were applied in the context of erosion-sedimentation models (Universal Soil Loss Equation and Spatially Explicit Delivery Models). The models are used to simulate the effect of excluding hot-spot areas of erosion and sedimentation from future urban growth and to predict the impacts of alternative erosion-control scenarios. Ambos Nogales, meaning 'both Nogaleses,' is a name commonly used for the twin border cities of Nogales, Arizona and Nogales, Sonora, Mexico. The Ambos Nogales watershed has experienced a decrease in water quality as a result of urban development in the twin-city area. Population growth rates in Ambos Nogales are high and the resources set in place to accommodate the rapid population influx will soon become overburdened. Because of its remote location and binational governance, monitoring and planning across the border is compromised. One scenario described in this research portrays an improvement in water quality through the identification of high-risk areas using models that simulate their protection from development and replanting with native grasses, while permitting the predicted and inevitable growth elsewhere. This is meant to add to the body of knowledge about forecasting the impact potential of urbanization on sediment delivery to streams for sustainable development, which can be accomplished in a virtual environment. Copyright ?? 2008 by Bellwether Publishing, Ltd. All rights reserved.

Improving the capability of an integrated CA-Markov model to simulate spatio-temporal urban growth trends using an Analytical Hierarchy Process and Frequency Ratio

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Aburas, Maher Milad; Ho, Yuek Ming; Ramli, Mohammad Firuz; Ash'aari, Zulfa Hanan

2017-07-01

The creation of an accurate simulation of future urban growth is considered one of the most important challenges in urban studies that involve spatial modeling. The purpose of this study is to improve the simulation capability of an integrated CA-Markov Chain (CA-MC) model using CA-MC based on the Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP) and CA-MC based on Frequency Ratio (FR), both applied in Seremban, Malaysia, as well as to compare the performance and accuracy between the traditional and hybrid models. Various physical, socio-economic, utilities, and environmental criteria were used as predictors, including elevation, slope, soil texture, population density, distance to commercial area, distance to educational area, distance to residential area, distance to industrial area, distance to roads, distance to highway, distance to railway, distance to power line, distance to stream, and land cover. For calibration, three models were applied to simulate urban growth trends in 2010; the actual data of 2010 were used for model validation utilizing the Relative Operating Characteristic (ROC) and Kappa coefficient methods Consequently, future urban growth maps of 2020 and 2030 were created. The validation findings confirm that the integration of the CA-MC model with the FR model and employing the significant driving force of urban growth in the simulation process have resulted in the improved simulation capability of the CA-MC model. This study has provided a novel approach for improving the CA-MC model based on FR, which will provide powerful support to planners and decision-makers in the development of future sustainable urban planning.

The effect of urban growth on landscape-scale restoration for a fire-dependent songbird

USGS Publications Warehouse

Pickens, Bradley A.; Marcus, Jeffrey F.; Carpenter, John P.; Anderson, Scott; Taillie, Paul J.; Collazo, Jaime A.

2017-01-01

A landscape-scale perspective on restoration ecology has been advocated, but few studies have informed restoration with landscape metrics or addressed broad-scale threats. Threats such as urban growth may affect restoration effectiveness in a landscape context. Here, we studied longleaf pine savanna in the rapidly urbanizing southeastern United States where a habitat-specialist bird, Bachman's sparrow (Peucaea aestivalis), is closely associated with savanna vegetation structure and frequent fire. Our objectives were to construct a species distribution model for Bachman's sparrow, determine the relationship between fire and urbanization, quantify the urban growth effect (2010–2090), identify potential restoration areas, and determine the interaction between restoration potential and urban growth by 2050. Number of patches, patch size, and isolation metrics were used to evaluate scenarios. The species distribution model was 88% accurate and emphasized multiscale canopy cover characteristics, fire, and percent habitat. Fires were less common <600 m from urban areas, and this fire suppression effect exacerbated urban growth effects. For restoration scenarios, canopy cover reduction by 30% resulted in nearly double the amount of habitat compared to the prescribed fire scenario; canopy cover reduction resulted in larger patch sizes and less patch isolation compared to current conditions. The effect of urban growth on restoration scenarios was unequal. Seventy-four percent of restoration areas from the prescribed fire scenario overlapped with projected urban growth, whereas the canopy cover reduction scenario only overlapped by 9%. We emphasize the benefits of simultaneously considering the effects of urban growth and landscape-scale restoration potential to promote a landscape with greater patch sizes and less isolation.

Urban Growth Modeling Using Cellular Automata with Multi-Temporal Remote Sensing Images Calibrated by the Artificial Bee Colony Optimization Algorithm.

PubMed

Naghibi, Fereydoun; Delavar, Mahmoud Reza; Pijanowski, Bryan

2016-12-14

Cellular Automata (CA) is one of the most common techniques used to simulate the urbanization process. CA-based urban models use transition rules to deliver spatial patterns of urban growth and urban dynamics over time. Determining the optimum transition rules of the CA is a critical step because of the heterogeneity and nonlinearities existing among urban growth driving forces. Recently, new CA models integrated with optimization methods based on swarm intelligence algorithms were proposed to overcome this drawback. The Artificial Bee Colony (ABC) algorithm is an advanced meta-heuristic swarm intelligence-based algorithm. Here, we propose a novel CA-based urban change model that uses the ABC algorithm to extract optimum transition rules. We applied the proposed ABC-CA model to simulate future urban growth in Urmia (Iran) with multi-temporal Landsat images from 1997, 2006 and 2015. Validation of the simulation results was made through statistical methods such as overall accuracy, the figure of merit and total operating characteristics (TOC). Additionally, we calibrated the CA model by ant colony optimization (ACO) to assess the performance of our proposed model versus similar swarm intelligence algorithm methods. We showed that the overall accuracy and the figure of merit of the ABC-CA model are 90.1% and 51.7%, which are 2.9% and 8.8% higher than those of the ACO-CA model, respectively. Moreover, the allocation disagreement of the simulation results for the ABC-CA model is 9.9%, which is 2.9% less than that of the ACO-CA model. Finally, the ABC-CA model also outperforms the ACO-CA model with fewer quantity and allocation errors and slightly more hits.

Urban Growth Modeling Using Cellular Automata with Multi-Temporal Remote Sensing Images Calibrated by the Artificial Bee Colony Optimization Algorithm

PubMed Central

Naghibi, Fereydoun; Delavar, Mahmoud Reza; Pijanowski, Bryan

2016-01-01

Cellular Automata (CA) is one of the most common techniques used to simulate the urbanization process. CA-based urban models use transition rules to deliver spatial patterns of urban growth and urban dynamics over time. Determining the optimum transition rules of the CA is a critical step because of the heterogeneity and nonlinearities existing among urban growth driving forces. Recently, new CA models integrated with optimization methods based on swarm intelligence algorithms were proposed to overcome this drawback. The Artificial Bee Colony (ABC) algorithm is an advanced meta-heuristic swarm intelligence-based algorithm. Here, we propose a novel CA-based urban change model that uses the ABC algorithm to extract optimum transition rules. We applied the proposed ABC-CA model to simulate future urban growth in Urmia (Iran) with multi-temporal Landsat images from 1997, 2006 and 2015. Validation of the simulation results was made through statistical methods such as overall accuracy, the figure of merit and total operating characteristics (TOC). Additionally, we calibrated the CA model by ant colony optimization (ACO) to assess the performance of our proposed model versus similar swarm intelligence algorithm methods. We showed that the overall accuracy and the figure of merit of the ABC-CA model are 90.1% and 51.7%, which are 2.9% and 8.8% higher than those of the ACO-CA model, respectively. Moreover, the allocation disagreement of the simulation results for the ABC-CA model is 9.9%, which is 2.9% less than that of the ACO-CA model. Finally, the ABC-CA model also outperforms the ACO-CA model with fewer quantity and allocation errors and slightly more hits. PMID:27983633

Modeling fractal cities using the correlated percolation model.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Makse, Hernán A.; Havlin, Shlomo; Stanley, H. Eugene

1996-03-01

Cities grow in a way that might be expected to resemble the growth of two-dimensional aggregates of particles, and this has led to recent attempts to model urban growth using ideas from the statistical physics of clusters. In particular, the model of diffusion limited aggregation (DLA) has been invoked to rationalize the apparently fractal nature of urban morphologies(M. Batty and P. Longley, Fractal Cities) (Academic, San Diego, 1994). The DLA model predicts that there should exist only one large fractal cluster, which is almost perfectly screened from incoming 'development units' (representing, for example, people, capital or resources), so that almost all of the cluster growth takes place at the tips of the cluster's branches. We show that an alternative model(H. A. Makse, S. Havlin, H. E. Stanley, Nature 377), 608 (1995), in which development units are correlated rather than being added to the cluster at random, is better able to reproduce the observed morphology of cities and the area distribution of sub-clusters ('towns') in an urban system, and can also describe urban growth dynamics. Our physical model, which corresponds to the correlated percolation model in the presence of a density gradient, is motivated by the fact that in urban areas development attracts further development. The model offers the possibility of predicting the global properties (such as scaling behavior) of urban morphologies.

Urban growth and landscape connectivity threats assessment at Saguaro National Park, Arizona, USA

USGS Publications Warehouse

Perkl, Ryan; Norman, Laura M.; Mitchell, David; Feller, Mark R.; Smith, Garrett; Wilson, Natalie R.

2018-01-01

Urban and exurban expansion results in habitat and biodiversity loss globally. We hypothesize that a coupled-model approach could connect urban planning for future cities with landscape ecology to consider wildland habitat connectivity. Our work combines urban growth simulations with models of wildlife corridors to examine how species will be impacted by development to test this hypothesis. We leverage a land use change model (SLEUTH) with structural and functional landscape-connectivity modeling techniques to ascertain the spatial extent and locations of connectivity related threats to a national park in southern Arizona, USA, and describe how protected areas might be impacted by urban expansion. Results of projected growth significantly altered structural connectivity (80%) when compared to current (baseline) corridor conditions. Moreover, projected growth impacted functional connectivity differently amongst species, indicating resilience of some species and near-complete displacement of others. We propose that implementing a geospatial-design-based model will allow for a better understanding of the impacts management decisions have on wildlife populations. The application provides the potential to understand both human and environmental impacts of land-system dynamics, critical for long-term sustainability.

Modeling of urban growth using cellular automata (CA) optimized by Particle Swarm Optimization (PSO)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Khalilnia, M. H.; Ghaemirad, T.; Abbaspour, R. A.

2013-09-01

In this paper, two satellite images of Tehran, the capital city of Iran, which were taken by TM and ETM+ for years 1988 and 2010 are used as the base information layers to study the changes in urban patterns of this metropolis. The patterns of urban growth for the city of Tehran are extracted in a period of twelve years using cellular automata setting the logistic regression functions as transition functions. Furthermore, the weighting coefficients of parameters affecting the urban growth, i.e. distance from urban centers, distance from rural centers, distance from agricultural centers, and neighborhood effects were selected using PSO. In order to evaluate the results of the prediction, the percent correct match index is calculated. According to the results, by combining optimization techniques with cellular automata model, the urban growth patterns can be predicted with accuracy up to 75 %.

Driving factors of urban land growth in Guangzhou and its implications for sustainable development

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cui, Xuezhu; Li, Shaoying; Wang, Xuetong; Xue, Xiaolong

2018-04-01

Since 2000, China's urban land has expanded at a dramatic speed because of the country's rapid urbanization. The country has been experiencing unbalanced development between rural and urban areas, causing serious challenges such as agricultural security and land resources waste. Effectively evaluating the driving factors of urban land growth is essential for improving efficient land use management and sustainable urban development. This study established a principal component regression model based on eight indicators to identify their influences on urban land growth in Guangzhou. The results provided a grouping analysis of the driving factors, and found that economic growth, urban population, and transportation development are the driving forces of urban land growth of Guangzhou, while the tertiary industry has an opposite effect. The findings led to further suggestions and recommendations for urban sustainable development. Hence, local governments should design relevant policies for achieving the rational development of urban land use and strategic planning on urban sustainable development.

Juvenile coho salmon growth and health in streams across an urbanization gradient

USGS Publications Warehouse

Spanjer, Andrew R.; Moran, Patrick W.; Larsen, Kimberly; Wetzel, Lisa; Hansen, Adam G.; Beauchamp, David A.

2018-01-01

Expanding human population and urbanization alters freshwater systems through structural changes to habitat, temperature effects from increased runoff and reduced canopy cover, altered flows, and increased toxicants. Current stream assessments stop short of measuring health or condition of species utilizing these freshwater habitats and fail to link specific stressors mechanistically to the health of organisms in the stream. Juvenile fish growth integrates both external and internal conditions providing a useful indicator of habitat quality and ecosystem health. Thus, there is a need to account for ecological and environmental influences on fish growth accurately. Bioenergetics models can simulate changes in growth and consumption in response to environmental conditions and food availability to account for interactions between an organism's environmental experience and utilization of available resources. The bioenergetics approach accounts for how thermal regime, food supply, and food quality affect fish growth. This study used a bioenergetics modeling approach to evaluate the environmental factors influencing juvenile coho salmon growth among ten Pacific Northwest streams spanning an urban gradient. Urban streams tended to be warmer, have earlier emergence dates and stronger early season growth. However, fish in urban streams experienced increased stress through lower growth efficiencies, especially later in the summer as temperatures warmed, with as much as a 16.6% reduction when compared to fish from other streams. Bioenergetics modeling successfully characterized salmonid growth in small perennial streams as part of a more extensive monitoring program and provides a powerful assessment tool for characterizing mixed life-stage specific responses in urban streams.

The effect of urban growth on landscape-scale restoration for a fire-dependent songbird.

PubMed

Pickens, Bradley A; Marcus, Jeffrey F; Carpenter, John P; Anderson, Scott; Taillie, Paul J; Collazo, Jaime A

2017-04-15

A landscape-scale perspective on restoration ecology has been advocated, but few studies have informed restoration with landscape metrics or addressed broad-scale threats. Threats such as urban growth may affect restoration effectiveness in a landscape context. Here, we studied longleaf pine savanna in the rapidly urbanizing southeastern United States where a habitat-specialist bird, Bachman's sparrow (Peucaea aestivalis), is closely associated with savanna vegetation structure and frequent fire. Our objectives were to construct a species distribution model for Bachman's sparrow, determine the relationship between fire and urbanization, quantify the urban growth effect (2010-2090), identify potential restoration areas, and determine the interaction between restoration potential and urban growth by 2050. Number of patches, patch size, and isolation metrics were used to evaluate scenarios. The species distribution model was 88% accurate and emphasized multiscale canopy cover characteristics, fire, and percent habitat. Fires were less common <600 m from urban areas, and this fire suppression effect exacerbated urban growth effects. For restoration scenarios, canopy cover reduction by 30% resulted in nearly double the amount of habitat compared to the prescribed fire scenario; canopy cover reduction resulted in larger patch sizes and less patch isolation compared to current conditions. The effect of urban growth on restoration scenarios was unequal. Seventy-four percent of restoration areas from the prescribed fire scenario overlapped with projected urban growth, whereas the canopy cover reduction scenario only overlapped by 9%. We emphasize the benefits of simultaneously considering the effects of urban growth and landscape-scale restoration potential to promote a landscape with greater patch sizes and less isolation. Copyright © 2017 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.

Spatial Growth Modeling and High Resolution Remote Sensing Data Coupled with Air Quality Modeling to Assess the Impact of Atlanta, Georgia on the Local and Regional Environment

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Quattrochi, Dale A.; Estes, Maurice G., Jr.; Crosson, William; Johnson, Hoyt; Khan, Maudood

2006-01-01

The growth of cities, both in population and areal extent, appears as an inexorable process. Urbanization continues at a rapid rate, and it is estimated that by the year 2025, 60 percent of the world s population will live in cities. Urban expansion has profound impacts on a host of biophysical, environmental, and atmospheric processes within an urban ecosystems perspective. A reduction in air quality over cities is a major result of these impacts. Because of its complexity, the urban landscape is not adequately captured in air quality models such as the Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ) model that is used to assess whether urban areas are in attainment of EPA air quality standards, primarily for ground level ozone. This inadequacy of the CMAQ model to sufficiently respond to the heterogeneous nature of the urban landscape can impact how well the model predicts ozone levels over metropolitan areas and ultimately, whether cities exceed EPA ozone air quality standards. We are exploring the utility of high-resolution remote sensing data and urban spatial growth modeling (SGM) projections as improved inputs to a meteorological/air quality modeling system focusing on the Atlanta, Georgia metropolitan area as a case study. These growth projections include business as usual and smart growth scenarios out to 2030. The growth projections illustrate the effects of employing urban heat island mitigation strategies, such as increasing tree canopy and albedo across the Atlanta metro area, which in turn, are used to model how air temperature can potentially be moderated as impacts on elevating ground-level ozone, as opposed to not utilizing heat island mitigation strategies. The National Land Cover Dataset at 30m resolution is being used as the land use/land cover input and aggregated to the 4km scale for the MM5 mesoscale meteorological model and the CMAQ modeling schemes. Use of these data has been found to better characterize low density/suburban development as compared with USGS lkm land use/land cover data that have traditionally been used in modeling. Air quality prediction for future scenarios to 2030 is being facilitated by land use projections using a spatial growth model. Land use projections were developed using the 2030 Regional Transportation Plan developed by the Atlanta Regional Commission, the regional planning agency for the area. This allows the Georgia Environmental Protection Division to evaluate how these transportation plans will affect future air quality. The coupled SGM and air quality modeling approach provides insight on what the impacts of Atlanta s growth will be on the local and regional environment and exists as a mechanism that can be used by policy makers to make rational decisions on urban growth and sustainability for the metropolitan area in the future.

Remote Sensing and Spatial Growth Modeling Coupled With Air Quality Modeling to Assess the Impact of Atlanta, Georgia on the Local and Regional Environment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Quattrochi, D. A.; Estes, M. G.; Crosson, W. L.; Johnson, H.; Khan, M.

2006-05-01

The growth of cities, both in population and areal extent, appears as an inexorable process. Urbanization continues at a rapid rate, and it is estimated that by the year 2025, 60 percent of the world's population will live in cities. Urban expansion has profound impacts on a host of biophysical, environmental, and atmospheric processes within an urban ecosystems perspective. A reduction in air quality over cities is a major result of these impacts. Because of its complexity, the urban landscape is not adequately captured in air quality models such as the Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ) model that is used to assess whether urban areas are in attainment of EPA air quality standards, primarily for ground level ozone. This inadequacy of the CMAQ model to sufficiently respond to the heterogeneous nature of the urban landscape can impact how well the model predicts ozone levels over metropolitan areas and ultimately, whether cities exceed EPA ozone air quality standards. We are exploring the utility of high-resolution remote sensing data and urban spatial growth modeling (SGM) projections as improved inputs to a meteorological/air quality modeling system focusing on the Atlanta, Georgia metropolitan area as a case study. These growth projections include "business as usual" and "smart growth" scenarios out to 2030. The growth projections illustrate the effects of employing urban heat island mitigation strategies, such as increasing tree canopy and albedo across the Atlanta metro area, which in turn, are used to model how air temperature can potentially be moderated as impacts on elevating ground-level ozone, as opposed to not utilizing heat island mitigation strategies. The National Land Cover Dataset at 30m resolution is being used as the land use/land cover input and aggregated to the 4km scale for the MM5 mesoscale meteorological model and the CMAQ modeling schemes. Use of these data has been found to better characterize low density/suburban development as compared with USGS 1km land use/land cover data that have traditionally been used in modeling. Air quality prediction for future scenarios to 2030 is being facilitated by land use projections using a spatial growth model. Land use projections were developed using the 2030 Regional Transportation Plan developed by the Atlanta Regional Commission, the regional planning agency for the area. This allows the Georgia Environmental Protection Division to evaluate how these transportation plans will affect future air quality. The coupled SGM and air quality modeling approach provides insight on what the impacts of Atlanta's growth will be on the local and regional environment and exists as a mechanism that can be used by policy makers to make rational decisions on urban growth and sustainability for the metropolitan area in the future.

A Meta-Analysis of Global Urban Land Expansion

PubMed Central

Seto, Karen C.; Fragkias, Michail; Güneralp, Burak; Reilly, Michael K.

2011-01-01

The conversion of Earth's land surface to urban uses is one of the most irreversible human impacts on the global biosphere. It drives the loss of farmland, affects local climate, fragments habitats, and threatens biodiversity. Here we present a meta-analysis of 326 studies that have used remotely sensed images to map urban land conversion. We report a worldwide observed increase in urban land area of 58,000 km2 from 1970 to 2000. India, China, and Africa have experienced the highest rates of urban land expansion, and the largest change in total urban extent has occurred in North America. Across all regions and for all three decades, urban land expansion rates are higher than or equal to urban population growth rates, suggesting that urban growth is becoming more expansive than compact. Annual growth in GDP per capita drives approximately half of the observed urban land expansion in China but only moderately affects urban expansion in India and Africa, where urban land expansion is driven more by urban population growth. In high income countries, rates of urban land expansion are slower and increasingly related to GDP growth. However, in North America, population growth contributes more to urban expansion than it does in Europe. Much of the observed variation in urban expansion was not captured by either population, GDP, or other variables in the model. This suggests that contemporary urban expansion is related to a variety of factors difficult to observe comprehensively at the global level, including international capital flows, the informal economy, land use policy, and generalized transport costs. Using the results from the global model, we develop forecasts for new urban land cover using SRES Scenarios. Our results show that by 2030, global urban land cover will increase between 430,000 km2 and 12,568,000 km2, with an estimate of 1,527,000 km2 more likely. PMID:21876770

Dynamic modeling of Tampa Bay urban development using parallel computing

USGS Publications Warehouse

Xian, G.; Crane, M.; Steinwand, D.

2005-01-01

Urban land use and land cover has changed significantly in the environs of Tampa Bay, Florida, over the past 50 years. Extensive urbanization has created substantial change to the region's landscape and ecosystems. This paper uses a dynamic urban-growth model, SLEUTH, which applies six geospatial data themes (slope, land use, exclusion, urban extent, transportation, hillside), to study the process of urbanization and associated land use and land cover change in the Tampa Bay area. To reduce processing time and complete the modeling process within an acceptable period, the model is recoded and ported to a Beowulf cluster. The parallel-processing computer system accomplishes the massive amount of computation the modeling simulation requires. SLEUTH calibration process for the Tampa Bay urban growth simulation spends only 10 h CPU time. The model predicts future land use/cover change trends for Tampa Bay from 1992 to 2025. Urban extent is predicted to double in the Tampa Bay watershed between 1992 and 2025. Results show an upward trend of urbanization at the expense of a decline of 58% and 80% in agriculture and forested lands, respectively.

Modelling spatial patterns of urban growth in Africa

PubMed Central

Linard, Catherine; Tatem, Andrew J.; Gilbert, Marius

2013-01-01

The population of Africa is predicted to double over the next 40 years, driving exceptionally high urban expansion rates that will induce significant socio-economic, environmental and health changes. In order to prepare for these changes, it is important to better understand urban growth dynamics in Africa and better predict the spatial pattern of rural-urban conversions. Previous work on urban expansion has been carried out at the city level or at the global level with a relatively coarse 5–10 km resolution. The main objective of the present paper was to develop a modelling approach at an intermediate scale in order to identify factors that influence spatial patterns of urban expansion in Africa. Boosted Regression Tree models were developed to predict the spatial pattern of rural-urban conversions in every large African city. Urban change data between circa 1990 and circa 2000 available for 20 large cities across Africa were used as training data. Results showed that the urban land in a 1 km neighbourhood and the accessibility to the city centre were the most influential variables. Results obtained were generally more accurate than results obtained using a distance-based urban expansion model and showed that the spatial pattern of small, compact and fast growing cities were easier to simulate than cities with lower population densities and a lower growth rate. The simulation method developed here will allow the production of spatially detailed urban expansion forecasts for 2020 and 2025 for Africa, data that are increasingly required by global change modellers. PMID:25152552

Model of Environmental Development of the Urbanized Areas: Accounting of Ecological and other Factors

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Abanina, E. N.; Pandakov, K. G.; Agapov, D. A.; Sorokina, Yu V.; Vasiliev, E. H.

2017-05-01

Modern cities and towns are often characterized by poor administration, which could be the reason of environmental degradation, the poverty growth, decline in economic growth and social isolation. In these circumstances it is really important to conduct fresh researches forming new ways of sustainable development of administrative districts. This development of the urban areas depends on many interdependent factors: ecological, economic, social. In this article we show some theoretical aspects of forming a model of environmental progress of the urbanized areas. We submit some model containing four levels including natural resources capacities of the territory, its social features, economic growth and human impact. The author describes the interrelations of elements of the model. In this article the program of environmental development of a city is offered and it could be used in any urban area.

Environmental Flow Modeling Challenges for Rapidly Urbanizing Watersheds

EPA Science Inventory

It is a challenge for land use planners and water resource managers to balance water needs that support urban growth and economic development of a growing population and yet maintain ecological flow needs. Urban growth and the associated water resources development in a watershed...

Capital, population and urban patterns.

PubMed

Zhang, W

1994-04-01

The author develops an approach to urban dynamics with endogenous capital and population growth, synthesizing the Alonso location model, the two-sector neoclassical growth model, and endogenous population theory. A dynamic model for an isolated island economy with endogenous capital, population, and residential structure is developed on the basis of Alonso's residential model and the two-sector neoclassical growth model. The model describes the interdependence between residential structure, economic growth, population growth, and economic structure over time and space. It has a unique long-run equilibrium, which may be either stable or unstable, depending upon the population dynamics. Applying the Hopf theorem, the author also shows that when the system is unstable, the economic geography exhibits permanent endogenous oscillations.

Remote Sensing and Spatial Growth Modeling Coupled with Air Quality Modeling to Assess the Impact of Atlanta, Georgia on the Local and Regional Environment

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Quattrochi, Dale A.; Estes, Maurice G., Jr.; Crosson, William; Khan, Maudood

2006-01-01

The growth of cities, both in population and areal extent, appears as an inexorable process. Urbanization continues at a rapid rate, and it is estimated that by the year 2025, 80 percent of the world s population will live in cities. Directly aligned with the expansion of cities is urban sprawl. Urban expansion has profound impacts on a host of biophysical, environmental, and atmospheric processes. A reduction in air quality over cities is a major result of these impacts. Strategies that can be directly or indirectly implemented to help remediate air quality problems in cities and that can be accepted by political decision makers and the general public are now being explored to help bring down air pollutants and improve air quality. The urban landscape is inherently complex and this complexity is not adequately captured in air quality models, particularly the Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ) model that is used to assess whether urban areas are in attainment of EPA air quality standards, primarily for ground level ozone. This inadequacy of the CMAQ model to sufficiently respond to the heterogeneous nature of the urban landscape can impact how well the model predicts ozone pollutant levels over metropolitan areas and ultimately, whether cities exceed EPA ozone air quality standards. We are exploring the utility of high-resolution remote sensing data and urban spatial growth modeling (SGM) projections as improved inputs to the meteorology component of the CMAQ model focusing on the Atlanta, Georgia metropolitan area as a case study. These growth projections include "business as usual" and "smart growth" scenarios out to 2030. The growth projections illustrate the effects of employing urban heat island mitigation strategies, such as increasing tree canopy and albedo across the Atlanta metro area, which in turn, are used to model how ozone and air temperature can potentially be moderated as impacts on elevating ground-level ozone, as opposed to not utilizing heat island mitigation strategies. The National Land Cover Dataset at 30m resolution is being used as the land use/land cover input and aggregated to the 4km scale for the MM5 mesoscale meteorological model and the (CMAQ) modeling schemes. Use of these data have been found to better characterize low density/suburban development as compared with USGS 1km land use/land cover data that have traditionally been used in modeling. Air quality prediction for future scenarios to 2030 is being facilitated by land use projections using a spatial growth model. Land use projections were developed using the 2030 Regional Transportation Plan developed by the Atlanta Regional Commission, the regional planning agency for the area. This allows the State Environmental Protection agency to evaluate how these transportation plans will affect future air quality. The coupled SGM and air quality modeling approach provides insight on what the impacts of Atlanta s growth will be on the local and regional environment and exists as a mechanism that can be used by policy makers to make rationale decisions on urban growth and sustainability for the metropolitan area in the future.

An examination of land use impacts of flooding induced by sea level rise

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Song, Jie; Fu, Xinyu; Gu, Yue; Deng, Yujun; Peng, Zhong-Ren

2017-03-01

Coastal regions become unprecedentedly vulnerable to coastal hazards that are associated with sea level rise. The purpose of this paper is therefore to simulate prospective urban exposure to changing sea levels. This article first applied the cellular-automaton-based SLEUTH model (Project Gigalopolis, 2016) to calibrate historical urban dynamics in Bay County, Florida (USA) - a region that is greatly threatened by rising sea levels. This paper estimated five urban growth parameters by multiple-calibration procedures that used different Monte Carlo iterations to account for modeling uncertainties. It then employed the calibrated model to predict three scenarios of urban growth up to 2080 - historical trend, urban sprawl, and compact development. We also assessed land use impacts of four policies: no regulations; flood mitigation plans based on the whole study region and on those areas that are prone to experience growth; and the protection of conservational lands. This study lastly overlaid projected urban areas in 2030 and 2080 with 500-year flooding maps that were developed under 0, 0.2, and 0.9 m sea level rise. The calibration results that a substantial number of built-up regions extend from established coastal settlements. The predictions suggest that total flooded area of new urbanized regions in 2080 would be more than 25 times that under the flood mitigation policy, if the urbanization progresses with few policy interventions. The joint model generates new knowledge in the domain between land use modeling and sea level rise. It contributes to coastal spatial planning by helping develop hazard mitigation schemes and can be employed in other international communities that face combined pressure of urban growth and climate change.

Landscape urbanization and economic growth in China: positive feedbacks and sustainability dilemmas.

PubMed

Bai, Xuemei; Chen, Jing; Shi, Peijun

2012-01-03

Accelerating urbanization has been viewed as an important instrument for economic development and reducing regional income disparity in some developing countries, including China. Recent studies (Bloom et al. 2008) indicate that demographic urbanization level has no causal effect on economic growth. However, due to the varying and changing definition of urban population, the use of demographic indicators as a sole representing indicator for urbanization might be misleading. Here, we re-examine the causal relationship between urbanization and economic growth in Chinese cities and provinces in recent decades, using built-up areas as a landscape urbanization indicator. Our analysis shows that (1) larger cities, both in terms of population size and built-up area, and richer cities tend to gain more income, have larger built-up area expansion, and attract more population, than poorer cities or smaller cities; and (2) that there is a long-term bidirectional causality between urban built-up area expansion and GDP per capita at both city and provincial level, and a short-term bidirectional causality at provincial level, revealing a positive feedback between landscape urbanization and urban and regional economic growth in China. Our results suggest that urbanization, if measured by a landscape indicator, does have causal effect on economic growth in China, both within the city and with spillover effect to the region, and that urban land expansion is not only the consequences of economic growth in cities, but also drivers of such growth. The results also suggest that under its current economic growth model, it might be difficult for China to control urban expansion without sacrificing economic growth, and China's policy to stop the loss of agricultural land, for food security, might be challenged by its policy to promote economic growth through urbanization.

Landscape Urbanization and Economic Growth in China: Positive Feedbacks and Sustainability Dilemmas

PubMed Central

2011-01-01

Accelerating urbanization has been viewed as an important instrument for economic development and reducing regional income disparity in some developing countries, including China. Recent studies (Bloom et al. 2008) indicate that demographic urbanization level has no causal effect on economic growth. However, due to the varying and changing definition of urban population, the use of demographic indicators as a sole representing indicator for urbanization might be misleading. Here, we re-examine the causal relationship between urbanization and economic growth in Chinese cities and provinces in recent decades, using built-up areas as a landscape urbanization indicator. Our analysis shows that (1) larger cities, both in terms of population size and built-up area, and richer cities tend to gain more income, have larger built-up area expansion, and attract more population, than poorer cities or smaller cities; and (2) that there is a long-term bidirectional causality between urban built-up area expansion and GDP per capita at both city and provincial level, and a short-term bidirectional causality at provincial level, revealing a positive feedback between landscape urbanization and urban and regional economic growth in China. Our results suggest that urbanization, if measured by a landscape indicator, does have causal effect on economic growth in China, both within the city and with spillover effect to the region, and that urban land expansion is not only the consequences of economic growth in cities, but also drivers of such growth. The results also suggest that under its current economic growth model, it might be difficult for China to control urban expansion without sacrificing economic growth, and China’s policy to stop the loss of agricultural land, for food security, might be challenged by its policy to promote economic growth through urbanization. PMID:22103244

A model of urban rational growth based on grey prediction

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Xiao, Wenjing

2017-04-01

Smart growth focuses on building sustainable cities, using compact development to prevent urban sprawl. This paper establishes a series of models to implement smart growth theories into city design. Besides two specific city design cases are shown. Firstly, We establishes Smart Growth Measure Model to measure the success of smart growth of a city. And we use Full Permutation Polygon Synthetic Indicator Method to calculate the Comprehensive Indicator (CI) which is used to measure the success of smart growth. Secondly, this paper uses the principle of smart growth to develop a new growth plan for two cities. We establish an optimization model to maximum CI value. The Particle Swarm Optimization (PSO) algorithm is used to solve the model. Combined with the calculation results and the specific circumstances of cities, we make their the smart growth plan respectively.

Approaches to simulating the “March of Bricks and Mortar”

USGS Publications Warehouse

Goldstein, Noah Charles; Candau, J.T.; Clarke, K.C.

2004-01-01

Re-creation of the extent of urban land use at different periods in time is valuable for examining how cities grow and how policy changes influence urban dynamics. To date, there has been little focus on the modeling of historical urban extent (other than for ancient cities). Instead, current modeling research has emphasized simulating the cities of the future. Predictive models can provide insights into urban growth processes and are valuable for land-use and urban planners, yet historical trends are largely ignored. This is unfortunate since historical data exist for urban areas and can be used to quantitatively test dynamic models and theory. We maintain that understanding the growth dynamics of a region's past allows more intelligent forecasts of its future. We compare using a spatio-temporal interpolation method with an agent-based simulation approach to recreate the urban extent of Santa Barbara, California, annually from 1929 to 2001. The first method uses current yet incomplete data on the construction of homes in the region. The latter uses a Cellular Automata based model, SLEUTH, to back- or hind-cast the urban extent. The success at historical urban growth reproduction of the two approaches used in this work was quantified for comparison. The performance of each method is described, as well as the utility of each model in re-creating the history of Santa Barbara. Additionally, the models’ assumptions about space are contrasted. As a consequence, we propose that both approaches are useful in historical urban simulations, yet the cellular approach is more flexible as it can be extended for spatio-temporal extrapolation.

[Delimitation of urban growth boundary based on ecological suitability and risk control: A case of Taibai Lake New District in Jining City, Shandong, China.

PubMed

Liu, Yan Xu; Peng, Jian; Sun, Mao Long; Yang, Yang

2016-08-01

Urban growth boundary, with full consideration of regional ecological constraints, can effectively control the unordered urban sprawl. Thus, urban growth boundary is a significant planning concept integrating regional ecological protection and urban construction. Finding the preferential position for urban construction, as well as controlling the ecological risk, has always been the core content of urban growth boundary delimitation. This study selected Taibai Lake New District in Jining City as a case area, and analyzed the scenario of ecological suitability by ordered weighted ave-raging algorithm. Surface temperature retrieval and rain flooding simulation were used to identify the spatial ecological risk. In the result of ecological suitability, the suitable construction zone accounted for 25.3% of the total area, the unsuitable construction zone accounted for 20.4%, and the other area was in the limit construction zone. Excluding the ecological risk control region, the flexible urban growth boundary covered 2975 hm 2 in near term, and covered 6754 hm 2 in long term. The final inflexible urban growth boundary covered 9405 hm 2 . As a new method, the scenario algorithms of ordered weighted averaging and ecological risk modeling could provide effective support in urban growth boundary identification.

Urban growth in Korea, 1970-1980: an application of the human ecological perspective.

PubMed

Ko, S H

1994-07-01

This study supports the ecological perspective proposed by Duncan (population, environment, organization, and technology) explaining urban population growth. Data were obtained from the 1970 and 1980 Korean Population Census and Korean Municipal Yearbook on cities with a minimum size of 20,000-50,000 people (108 cities and towns). Urban growth is most strongly influenced by indigenous labor surplus and the population potential of the city to be in contact with another city. Nine multiple regression variables explained just under 66% of the variance in urban growth. Net migration was influential among those aged 15-24 years. The extent of differentiation of industry affected net migration only among those aged 15-24 years and those aged 35-44 years. Population redistribution was more affected directly by changes in industrial organization, and migration was affected indirectly by environmental and technological effects on organization. Urban growth through migration of older age groups was affected by government expenditure on public works. Urban growth was not much affected by transportation/communication concentration, manufacturing concentration, urban labor surplus, population size, and site. Urban growth was viewed as the interaction between the unemployment rate and the urban wage, following Todaro's equilibrium models. In Korea, larger cities only grew faster during the 1960s. By the 1970s, upper middle-sized cities grew faster. Location was not a significant factor in explaining urban growth, but growth was rapid along a corridor within 100 km from Seoul and 50 km from Pusan, the second largest city in Korea. Caution was urged in interpreting Korea's ecological urban growth patterns as indicative of developing countries.

Coupling urban growth scenarios with nearshore biophysical change models to inform coastal restoration planning in Puget Sound, Washington

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Byrd, K. B.; Kreitler, J.; Labiosa, W.

2010-12-01

A scenario represents an account of a plausible future given logical assumptions about how conditions change over discrete bounds of space and time. Development of multiple scenarios provides a means to identify alternative directions of urban growth that account for a range of uncertainty in human behavior. Interactions between human and natural processes may be studied by coupling urban growth scenario outputs with biophysical change models; if growth scenarios encompass a sufficient range of alternative futures, scenario assumptions serve to constrain the uncertainty of biophysical models. Spatially explicit urban growth models (map-based) produce output such as distributions and densities of residential or commercial development in a GIS format that can serve as input to other models. Successful fusion of growth model outputs with other model inputs requires that both models strategically address questions of interest, incorporate ecological feedbacks, and minimize error. The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) Puget Sound Ecosystem Portfolio Model (PSEPM) is a decision-support tool that supports land use and restoration planning in Puget Sound, Washington, a 35,500 sq. km region. The PSEPM couples future scenarios of urban growth with statistical, process-based and rule-based models of nearshore biophysical changes and ecosystem services. By using a multi-criteria approach, the PSEPM identifies cross-system and cumulative threats to the nearshore environment plus opportunities for conservation and restoration. Sub-models that predict changes in nearshore biophysical condition were developed and existing models were integrated to evaluate three growth scenarios: 1) Status Quo, 2) Managed Growth, and 3) Unconstrained Growth. These decadal scenarios were developed and projected out to 2060 at Oregon State University using the GIS-based ENVISION model. Given land management decisions and policies under each growth scenario, the sub-models predicted changes in 1) fecal coliform in shellfish growing areas, 2) sediment supply to beaches, 3) State beach recreational visits, 4) eelgrass habitat suitability, 5) forage fish habitat suitability, and 6) nutrient loadings. In some cases thousands of shoreline units were evaluated with multiple predictive models, creating a need for streamlined and consistent database development and data processing. Model development over multiple disciplines demonstrated the challenge of merging data types from multiple sources that were inconsistent in spatial and temporal resolution, classification schemes, and topology. Misalignment of data in space and time created potential for error and misinterpretation of results. This effort revealed that the fusion of growth scenarios and biophysical models requires an up-front iterative adjustment of both scenarios and models so that growth model outputs provide the needed input data in the correct format. Successful design of data flow across models that includes feedbacks between human and ecological systems was found to enhance the use of the final data product for decision making.

Remote Sensing Characterization of the Urban Landscape for Improvement of Air Quality Modeling

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Quattrochi, Dale A.; Estes, Maurice G., Jr.; Khan, Maudood

2005-01-01

The urban landscape is inherently complex and this complexity is not adequately captured in air quality models, particularly the Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ) model that is used to assess whether urban areas are in attainment of EPA air quality standards, primarily for ground level ozone. This inadequacy of the CMAQ model to sufficiently respond to the heterogeneous nature of the urban landscape can impact how well the model predicts ozone pollutant levels over metropolitan areas and ultimately, whether cities exceed EPA ozone air quality standards. We are exploring the utility of high-resolution remote sensing data and urban growth projections as improved inputs to the meteorology component of the CMAQ model focusing on the Atlanta, Georgia metropolitan area as a case study. These growth projections include "business as usual" and "smart growth" scenarios out to 2030. The growth projections illustrate the effects of employing urban heat island mitigation strategies, such as increasing tree canopy and albedo across the Atlanta metro area, in moderating ground-level ozone and air temperature, compared to "business as usual" simulations in which heat island mitigation strategies are not applied. The National Land Cover Dataset at 30m resolution is being used as the land use/land cover input and aggregated to the 4km scale for the MM5 mesoscale meteorological model and the (CMAQ) modeling schemes. Use of these data has been found to better characterize low densityhburban development as compared with USGS 1 km land use/land cover data that have traditionally been used in modeling. Air quality prediction for fiture scenarios to 2030 is being facilitated by land use projections using a spatial growth model. Land use projections were developed using the 2030 Regional Transportation Plan developed by the Atlanta Regional Commission, the regional planning agency for the area. This allows the state Environmental Protection agency to evaluate how these transportation plans will affect fbture air quality.

Monitoring urban expansion and its effects on land use and land cover changes in Guangzhou city, China.

PubMed

Wu, Yanyan; Li, Shuyuan; Yu, Shixiao

2016-01-01

There are widespread concerns about urban sprawl in China. In response, modeling and assessing urban expansion and subsequent land use and land cover (LULC) changes have become important approaches to support decisions about appropriate development and land resource use. Guangzhou, a major metropolitan city in South China, has experienced rapid urbanization and great economic growth in the past few decades. This study applied a series of Landsat images to assess the urban expansion and subsequent LULC changes over 35 years, from 1979 to 2013. From start to end, urban expansion increased by 1512.24 km(2) with an annual growth rate of 11.25 %. There were four stages of urban growth: low rates from 1979 to 1990, increased rates from 1990 to 2001, high rates from 2001 to 2009, and steady increased rates from 2009 to 2013. There were also three different urban growth types in these different stages: edge-expansion growth, infilling growth, and spontaneous growth. Other land cover, such as cropland, forest, and mosaics of cropland and natural vegetation, were severely impacted as a result. To analyze these changes, we used landscape metrics to characterize the changes in the spatial patterns across the Guangzhou landscape and the impacts of urban growth on other types of land cover. The significant changes in LULC and urban expansion were highly correlated with economic development, population growth, technical progress, policy elements, and other similar indexes.

Modeling urban expansion in Yangon, Myanmar using Landsat time-series and stereo GeoEye Images

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sritarapipat, Tanakorn; Takeuchi, Wataru

2016-06-01

This research proposed a methodology to model the urban expansion based dynamic statistical model using Landsat and GeoEye Images. Landsat Time-Series from 1978 to 2010 have been applied to extract land covers from the past to the present. Stereo GeoEye Images have been employed to obtain the height of the building. The class translation was obtained by observing land cover from the past to the present. The height of the building can be used to detect the center of the urban area (mainly commercial area). It was assumed that the class translation and the distance of multi-centers of the urban area also the distance of the roads affect the urban growth. The urban expansion model based on the dynamic statistical model was defined to refer to three factors; (1) the class translation, (2) the distance of the multicenters of the urban areas, and (3) the distance from the roads. Estimation and prediction of urban expansion by using our model were formulated and expressed in this research. The experimental area was set up in Yangon, Myanmar. Since it is the major of country's economic with more than five million population and the urban areas have rapidly increased. The experimental results indicated that our model of urban expansion estimated urban growth in both estimation and prediction steps in efficiency.

Urban tree database and allometric equations

Treesearch

E. Gregory McPherson; Natalie S. van Doorn; Paula J.  Peper

2016-01-01

Information on urban tree growth underpins models used to calculate the effects of trees on the environment and human well-being. Maximum tree size and other growth data are used by urban forest managers, landscape architects, and planners to select trees most suitable to the amount of growing space, thereby reducing costly future conflicts between trees and...

The Application of Various Nonlinear Models to Describe Academic Growth Trajectories: An Empirical Analysis Using Four-Wave Longitudinal Achievement Data from a Large Urban School District

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Shin, Tacksoo

2012-01-01

This study introduced various nonlinear growth models, including the quadratic conventional polynomial model, the fractional polynomial model, the Sigmoid model, the growth model with negative exponential functions, the multidimensional scaling technique, and the unstructured growth curve model. It investigated which growth models effectively…

Dynamic Urban Growth Models

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

1978-12-01

In the report the concept of 'order by fluctuation,' that has appeared recently in physico-chemical and biological systems, is applied to the description of urban growth. It is shown that fluctuations play a vital role in the evolutionary process of ...

Dynamic Urban Growth Models

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

1979-12-01

In the report the concept of 'order by fluctuation,' that has appeared recently in physico-chemical and biological systems, is applied to the description of urban growth. It is shown that fluctuations play a vital role in the evolutionary process of ...

Project ATLANTA (ATlanta Land-use ANalysis: Temperature and Air quality): A Study of how the Urban Landscape Affects Meteorology and Air Quality Through Time

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Quattrochi, Dale A.; Luvall, Jeffrey C.; Estes, Maurice G.; Lo, C. P.; Kidder, Stanley Q.; Hafner, Jan; Taha, Haider; Bornstein, Robert D.; Gillies, Robert R.; Gallo, Kevin P.

1998-01-01

It is our intent through this investigation to help facilitate measures that can be Project ATLANTA (ATlanta Land-use ANalysis: applied to mitigate climatological or air quality Temperature and Air-quality) is a NASA Earth degradation, or to design alternate measures to sustain Observing System (EOS) Interdisciplinary Science or improve the overall urban environment in the future. investigation that seeks to observe, measure, model, and analyze how the rapid growth of the Atlanta. The primary objectives for this research effort are: 1) To In the last half of the 20th century, Atlanta, investigate and model the relationship between Atlanta Georgia has risen as the premier commercial, urban growth, land cover change, and the development industrial, and transportation urban area of the of the urban heat island phenomenon through time at southeastern United States. The rapid growth of the nested spatial scales from local to regional; 2) To Atlanta area, particularly within the last 25 years, has investigate and model the relationship between Atlanta made Atlanta one of the fastest growing metropolitan urban growth and land cover change on air quality areas in the United States. The population of the through time at nested spatial scales from local to Atlanta metropolitan area increased 27% between 1970 regional; and 3) To model the overall effects of urban and 1980, and 33% between 1980-1990 (Research development on surface energy budget characteristics Atlanta, Inc., 1993). Concomitant with this high rate of across the Atlanta urban landscape through time at population growth, has been an explosive growth in nested spatial scales from local to regional. Our key retail, industrial, commercial, and transportation goal is to derive a better scientific understanding of how services within the Atlanta region. This has resulted in land cover changes associated with urbanization in the tremendous land cover change dynamics within the Atlanta area, principally in transforming forest lands to metropolitan region, wherein urbanization has urban land covers through time, has, and will, effect consumed vast acreas of land adjacent to the city local and regional climate, surface energy flux, and air proper and has pushed the rural/urban fringe farther quality characteristics. Allied with this goal is the and farther away from the original Atlanta urban core. prospect that the results from this research can be An enormous transition of land from forest and applied by urban planners, environmental managers agriculture to urban land uses has occurred in the and other decision-makers, for determining how Atlanta area in the last 25 years, along with subsequent urbanization has impacted the climate and overall

Modeling Global Urbanization Supported by Nighttime Light Remote Sensing

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhou, Y.

2015-12-01

Urbanization, a major driver of global change, profoundly impacts our physical and social world, for example, altering carbon cycling and climate. Understanding these consequences for better scientific insights and effective decision-making unarguably requires accurate information on urban extent and its spatial distributions. In this study, we developed a cluster-based method to estimate the optimal thresholds and map urban extents from the nighttime light remote sensing data, extended this method to the global domain by developing a computational method (parameterization) to estimate the key parameters in the cluster-based method, and built a consistent 20-year global urban map series to evaluate the time-reactive nature of global urbanization (e.g. 2000 in Fig. 1). Supported by urban maps derived from nightlights remote sensing data and socio-economic drivers, we developed an integrated modeling framework to project future urban expansion by integrating a top-down macro-scale statistical model with a bottom-up urban growth model. With the models calibrated and validated using historical data, we explored urban growth at the grid level (1-km) over the next two decades under a number of socio-economic scenarios. The derived spatiotemporal information of historical and potential future urbanization will be of great value with practical implications for developing adaptation and risk management measures for urban infrastructure, transportation, energy, and water systems when considered together with other factors such as climate variability and change, and high impact weather events.

A Harris-Todaro Agent-Based Model to Rural-Urban Migration

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Espíndola, Aquino L.; Silveira, Jaylson J.; Penna, T. J. P.

2006-09-01

The Harris-Todaro model of the rural-urban migration process is revisited under an agent-based approach. The migration of the workers is interpreted as a process of social learning by imitation, formalized by a computational model. By simulating this model, we observe a transitional dynamics with continuous growth of the urban fraction of overall population toward an equilibrium. Such an equilibrium is characterized by stabilization of rural-urban expected wages differential (generalized Harris-Todaro equilibrium condition), urban concentration and urban unemployment. These classic results obtained originally by Harris and Todaro are emergent properties of our model.

Strategies for Balanced Rural-Urban Growth. Agricultural Information Bulletin No. 392.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Edwards, Clark

Summarizing an Economic Research Service (ERS) publication, this guide to a balanced rural-urban growth describes the results of a computer based ERS model which examined seven strategies to improve rural economic development. Based on 1960-70 trends, the model is described as asking how much would be required of each of the following strategies…

Urban tree growth modeling

Treesearch

E. Gregory McPherson; Paula J. Peper

2012-01-01

This paper describes three long-term tree growth studies conducted to evaluate tree performance because repeated measurements of the same trees produce critical data for growth model calibration and validation. Several empirical and process-based approaches to modeling tree growth are reviewed. Modeling is more advanced in the fields of forestry and...

Ca-Pri a Cellular Automata Phenomenological Research Investigation: Simulation Results

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Iannone, G.; Troisi, A.

2013-05-01

Following the introduction of a phenomenological cellular automata (CA) model capable to reproduce city growth and urban sprawl, we develop a toy model simulation considering a realistic framework. The main characteristic of our approach is an evolution algorithm based on inhabitants preferences. The control of grown cells is obtained by means of suitable functions which depend on the initial condition of the simulation. New born urban settlements are achieved by means of a logistic evolution of the urban pattern while urban sprawl is controlled by means of the population evolution function. In order to compare model results with a realistic urban framework we have considered, as the area of study, the island of Capri (Italy) in the Mediterranean Sea. Two different phases of the urban evolution on the island have been taken into account: a new born initial growth as induced by geographic suitability and the simulation of urban spread after 1943 induced by the population evolution after this date.

Exploring the patterns and evolution of self-organized urban street networks through modeling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rui, Yikang; Ban, Yifang; Wang, Jiechen; Haas, Jan

2013-03-01

As one of the most important subsystems in cities, urban street networks have recently been well studied by using the approach of complex networks. This paper proposes a growing model for self-organized urban street networks. The model involves a competition among new centers with different values of attraction radius and a local optimal principle of both geometrical and topological factors. We find that with the model growth, the local optimization in the connection process and appropriate probability for the loop construction well reflect the evolution strategy in real-world cities. Moreover, different values of attraction radius in centers competition process lead to morphological change in patterns including urban network, polycentric and monocentric structures. The model succeeds in reproducing a large diversity of road network patterns by varying parameters. The similarity between the properties of our model and empirical results implies that a simple universal growth mechanism exists in self-organized cities.

Future Climate Prediction of Urban Atmosphere in A Tropical Megacity: Utilization of RCP/SSP Scenarios with an Urban Growth Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Darmanto, N. S.; Varquez, A. C. G.; Kanda, M.; Takakuwa, S.

2016-12-01

Economic development in Southeast Asia megacities leads to rapid transformation into more complicated urban configurations. These configurations, including building geometry, enhance aerodynamic drag thus reducing near-surface wind speeds. Roughness parameters representing building geometry, along with anthropogenic heat emissions, contribute to the formation of urban heat islands (UHI). All these have been reproduced successfully in the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Model coupled with an improved single-layer urban canopy model incorporating a realistic distribution of urban parameters and anthropogenic heat emission in the Jakarta Greater Area. We apply this technology to climate change studies by introducing future urbanization defined by urban sprawl, vertical rise in buildings, and increase anthropogenic heat emission (AHE) due to population changes, into futuristic climate modelling. To simulate 2050s future climate, pseudo-global warming method was used which relied on current and ensembles of 5 CMIP5 GCMs for 2 representative concentration pathways (RCP), 2.6 and 8.5. To determine future urbanization level, 2050 population growth and energy consumption were estimated from shared socioeconomic pathways (SSP). This allows the estimation of future urban sprawl, building geometry, and AHE using the SLEUTH urban growth model and spatial growth assumptions. Two cases representing combinations of RCP and SSP were simulated in WRF: RCP2.6-SSP1 and RCP8.5-SSP3. Each case corresponds to best and worst-case scenarios of implementing adaptation and mitigation strategies, respectively. It was found that 2-m temperature of Jakarta will increase by 0.62°C (RCP2.6) and 1.44°C (RCP8.5) solely from background climate change; almost on the same magnitude as the background temperature increase of RCP2.6 (0.5°C) and RCP8.5 (1.2°C). Compared with previous studies, the result indicates that the effect of climate change on UHI in tropical cities may be lesser than cities located in the mid-latitudes. However, it is expected that the combined effect of urbanization and climate change will result to significant changes on future urban temperature. ACK: This research was supported by the Environment Research and Technology Development Fund (S-14) of the Ministry of the Environment, Japan.

Effects of urban growth controls on intercity commuting.

PubMed

Ogura, Laudo M

2010-01-01

This paper presents an empirical study of the effects of urban growth controls on the intercity commuting of workers. Growth controls (land use regulations that attempt to restrict population growth and urban sprawl) have increased housing prices and diverted population growth to uncontrolled cities. It has been suggested that resulting changes in local labour supply might stimulate intercity commuting from uncontrolled to controlled cities. To test this hypothesis, a gravity model of commuting flows between places in California is estimated using alternative econometric methods (OLS, Heckman selection and count-data). The possibility of spatial dependence in commuting flows is also taken into consideration. Results suggest larger commuting flows to destination places that restrict residential growth.

Microgeographic differentiation in thermal performance curves between rural and urban populations of an aquatic insect.

PubMed

Tüzün, Nedim; Op de Beeck, Lin; Brans, Kristien I; Janssens, Lizanne; Stoks, Robby

2017-12-01

The rapidly increasing rate of urbanization has a major impact on the ecology and evolution of species. While increased temperatures are a key aspect of urbanization ("urban heat islands"), we have very limited knowledge whether this generates differentiation in thermal responses between rural and urban populations. In a common garden experiment, we compared the thermal performance curves (TPCs) for growth rate and mortality in larvae of the damselfly Coenagrion puella from three urban and three rural populations. TPCs for growth rate shifted vertically, consistent with the faster-slower theoretical model whereby the cold-adapted rural larvae grew faster than the warm-adapted urban larvae across temperatures. In line with costs of rapid growth, rural larvae showed lower survival than urban larvae across temperatures. The relatively lower temperatures hence expected shorter growing seasons in rural populations compared to the populations in the urban heat islands likely impose stronger time constraints to reach a certain developmental stage before winter, thereby selecting for faster growth rates. In addition, higher predation rates at higher temperature may have contributed to the growth rate differences between urban and rural ponds. A faster-slower differentiation in TPCs may be a widespread pattern along the urbanization gradient. The observed microgeographic differentiation in TPCs supports the view that urbanization may drive life-history evolution. Moreover, because of the urban heat island effect, urban environments have the potential to aid in developing predictions on the impact of climate change on rural populations.

The southern megalopolis: using the past to predict the future of urban sprawl in the Southeast U.S.

USGS Publications Warehouse

Terando, Adam; Costanza, Jennifer; Belyea, Curtis; Dunn, Robert R.; McKerrow, Alexa; Collazo, Jaime

2014-01-01

The future health of ecosystems is arguably as dependent on urban sprawl as it is on human-caused climatic warming. Urban sprawl strongly impacts the urban ecosystems it creates and the natural and agro-ecosystems that it displaces and fragments. Here, we project urban sprawl changes for the next 50 years for the fast-growing Southeast U.S. Previous studies have focused on modeling population density, but the urban extent is arguably as important as population density per se in terms of its ecological and conservation impacts. We develop simulations using the SLEUTH urban growth model that complement population-driven models but focus on spatial pattern and extent. To better capture the reach of low-density suburban development, we extend the capabilities of SLEUTH by incorporating street-network information. Our simulations point to a future in which the extent of urbanization in the Southeast is projected to increase by 101% to 192%. Our results highlight areas where ecosystem fragmentation is likely, and serve as a benchmark to explore the challenging tradeoffs between ecosystem health, economic growth and cultural desires.

The Southern Megalopolis: Using the Past to Predict the Future of Urban Sprawl in the Southeast U.S

PubMed Central

Terando, Adam J.; Costanza, Jennifer; Belyea, Curtis; Dunn, Robert R.; McKerrow, Alexa; Collazo, Jaime A.

2014-01-01

The future health of ecosystems is arguably as dependent on urban sprawl as it is on human-caused climatic warming. Urban sprawl strongly impacts the urban ecosystems it creates and the natural and agro-ecosystems that it displaces and fragments. Here, we project urban sprawl changes for the next 50 years for the fast-growing Southeast U.S. Previous studies have focused on modeling population density, but the urban extent is arguably as important as population density per se in terms of its ecological and conservation impacts. We develop simulations using the SLEUTH urban growth model that complement population-driven models but focus on spatial pattern and extent. To better capture the reach of low-density suburban development, we extend the capabilities of SLEUTH by incorporating street-network information. Our simulations point to a future in which the extent of urbanization in the Southeast is projected to increase by 101% to 192%. Our results highlight areas where ecosystem fragmentation is likely, and serve as a benchmark to explore the challenging tradeoffs between ecosystem health, economic growth and cultural desires. PMID:25054329

Urban growth as a component of global change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schneider, Annemarie

Urbanization---both the shift in population to urban areas and the physical transformation of land---has accelerated in recent decades in nearly all parts of the world. Urban growth is known to affect local environments through microclimatic changes, pollution, and loss of natural and agricultural lands, and has the potential to influence global circulation, biogeochemistry, and energy balance. To assess these impacts, rates and patterns of urban expansion and their relation to socioeconomic drivers must be determined. A combination of multiple sources of coarse resolution remotely sensed data and a Bayesian data fusion approach result in global maps of urban areas that show reasonable accuracy in terms of the size and location of cities, and are suitable for use in regional-global climate models. To understand changes in urban form locally, medium-resolution remote sensing data, pattern metrics, and local census data are combined to provide a suite of urban growth indicators that facilitate comparison of trends across cities from different regions and different levels of economic development. Chengdu, a rapidly developing city in Western China, provides an ideal case study to test these methods. Results show that the city has increased in area over 350% from 1978 to 2002, while expanding primarily along transportation routes with fragmentation in periurban areas. Comparison of growth metrics for 25 cities from 13 countries for the period 1990-2000 reveals four city types: low-growth cities characterized by modest rates of infilling-type expansion, high-growth cities with rapid, fragmented development, expansive-growth cities with extensive dispersion at low population densities, and frantic-growth cities such as Chengdu, that exhibit extraordinary rates of growth at high population densities. Although all 25 cities are expanding at the urban-rural boundary, cities outside of the U.S. do not show evidence of the large, dispersed spatial forms characteristic of American urban sprawl. Empirical analysis of the linkages between urban growth and population, household, and labor data shows a limited relationship between urban expansion and population change, a factor conventionally thought to play a role in land conversion. Local economic restructuring to industry and service-oriented activities shows some importance in urban growth and dispersion.

Regional Assessment of Urban Impacts on Landcover and Open Space Finds a Smart Urban Growth Policy Performs Little Better than Business as Usual

PubMed Central

Thorne, James H.; Santos, Maria J.; Bjorkman, Jacquelyn H.

2013-01-01

Assessment of landscape change is critical for attainment of regional sustainability goals. Urban growth assessments are needed because over half the global population now lives in cities, which impact biodiversity, ecosystem structure and ecological processes. Open space protection is needed to preserve these attributes, and provide the resources humans need. The San Francisco Bay Area, California, is challenged to accommodate a population increase of 3.07 million while maintaining the region’s ecosystems and biodiversity. Our analysis of 9275 km2 in the Bay Area links historic trends for three measures: urban growth, protected open space, and landcover types over the last 70 years to future 2050 projections of urban growth and open space. Protected open space totaled 348 km2 (3.7% of the area) in 1940, and expanded to 2221 km2 (20.2%) currently. An additional 1038 km2 of protected open space is targeted (35.1%). Urban area historically increased from 396.5 km2 to 2239 km2 (24.1% of the area). Urban growth during this time mostly occurred at the expense of agricultural landscapes (62.9%) rather than natural vegetation. Smart Growth development has been advanced as a preferred alternative in many planning circles, but we found that it conserved only marginally more open space than Business-as-usual when using an urban growth model to portray policies for future urban growth. Scenarios to 2050 suggest urban development on non-urban lands of 1091, 956, or 179 km2, under Business-as-usual, Smart Growth and Infill policy growth scenarios, respectively. The Smart Growth policy converts 88% of natural lands and agriculture used by Business-as-usual, while Infill used only 40% of those lands. Given the historic rate of urban growth, 0.25%/year, and limited space available, the Infill scenario is recommended. While the data may differ, the use of an historic and future framework to track these three variables can be easily applied to other metropolitan areas. PMID:23755204

Regional assessment of urban impacts on landcover and open space finds a smart urban growth policy performs little better than business as usual.

PubMed

Thorne, James H; Santos, Maria J; Bjorkman, Jacquelyn H

2013-01-01

Assessment of landscape change is critical for attainment of regional sustainability goals. Urban growth assessments are needed because over half the global population now lives in cities, which impact biodiversity, ecosystem structure and ecological processes. Open space protection is needed to preserve these attributes, and provide the resources humans need. The San Francisco Bay Area, California, is challenged to accommodate a population increase of 3.07 million while maintaining the region's ecosystems and biodiversity. Our analysis of 9275 km² in the Bay Area links historic trends for three measures: urban growth, protected open space, and landcover types over the last 70 years to future 2050 projections of urban growth and open space. Protected open space totaled 348 km² (3.7% of the area) in 1940, and expanded to 2221 km² (20.2%) currently. An additional 1038 km² of protected open space is targeted (35.1%). Urban area historically increased from 396.5 km² to 2239 km² (24.1% of the area). Urban growth during this time mostly occurred at the expense of agricultural landscapes (62.9%) rather than natural vegetation. Smart Growth development has been advanced as a preferred alternative in many planning circles, but we found that it conserved only marginally more open space than Business-as-usual when using an urban growth model to portray policies for future urban growth. Scenarios to 2050 suggest urban development on non-urban lands of 1091, 956, or 179 km², under Business-as-usual, Smart Growth and Infill policy growth scenarios, respectively. The Smart Growth policy converts 88% of natural lands and agriculture used by Business-as-usual, while Infill used only 40% of those lands. Given the historic rate of urban growth, 0.25%/year, and limited space available, the Infill scenario is recommended. While the data may differ, the use of an historic and future framework to track these three variables can be easily applied to other metropolitan areas.

The Impact of Urban Growth and Climate Change on Heat Stress in an Australian City

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chapman, S.; Mcalpine, C. A.; Thatcher, M. J.; Salazar, A.; Watson, J. R.

2017-12-01

Over half of the world's population lives in urban areas. Most people will therefore be exposed to climate change in an urban environment. One of the climate risks facing urban residents is heat stress, which can lead to illness and death. Urban residents are at increased risk of heat stress due to the urban heat island effect. The urban heat island is a modification of the urban environment and increases temperatures on average by 2°C, though the increase can be much higher, up to 8°C when wind speeds and cloud cover are low. The urban heat island is also expected to increase in the future due to urban growth and intensification, further exacerbating urban heat stress. Climate change alters the urban heat island due to changes in weather (wind speed and cloudiness) and evapotranspiration. Future urban heat stress will therefore be affected by urban growth and climate change. The aim of this study was to examine the impact of urban growth and climate change on the urban heat island and heat stress in Brisbane, Australia. We used CCAM, the conformal cubic atmospheric model developed by the CSIRO, to examine temperatures in Brisbane using scenarios of urban growth and climate change. We downscaled the urban climate using CCAM, based on bias corrected Sea Surface Temperatures from the ACCESS1.0 projection of future climate. We used Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 8.5 for the periods 1990 - 2000, 2049 - 2060 and 2089 - 2090 with current land use and an urban growth scenario. The present day climatology was verified using weather station data from the Australian Bureau of Meteorology. We compared the urban heat island of the present day with the urban heat island with climate change to determine if climate change altered the heat island. We also calculated heat stress using wet-bulb globe temperature and apparent temperature for the climate change and base case scenarios. We found the urban growth scenario increased present day temperatures by 0.5°C in the inner city and by 6°C during a period of hot days. The scenarios of future temperature are ongoing and will show how heat stress will change in Brisbane when both urban growth and climate change are considered.

Comprehensive evaluation system of intelligent urban growth

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, Lian-Yan; Ren, Xiao-Bin

2017-06-01

With the rapid urbanization of the world, urban planning has become increasingly important and necessary to ensure people have access to equitable and sustainable homes, resources and jobs.This article is to talk about building an intelligent city evaluation system.First,using System Analysis Model(SAM) which concludes literature data analysis and stepwise regression analysis to describe intelligent growth scientifically and obtain the evaluation index. Then,using the improved entropy method to obtain the weight of the evaluation index.Afterwards, establishing a complete Smart Growth Comprehensive Evaluation Model(SGCEM).Finally,testing the correctness of the model.Choosing Otago(New Zealand )and Yumen(China) as research object by data mining and SGCEM model,then we get Yumen and Otago’s rational degree’s values are 0.3485 and 0.5376 respectively. It’s believed that the Otago’s smart level is higher,and it is found that the estimated value of rationality is consistent with the reality.

Forecasting the combined effects of urbanization and climate change on stream ecosystems: from impacts to management options

PubMed Central

Nelson, Kären C; Palmer, Margaret A; Pizzuto, James E; Moglen, Glenn E; Angermeier, Paul L; Hilderbrand, Robert H; Dettinger, Michael; Hayhoe, Katharine

2009-01-01

Streams collect runoff, heat, and sediment from their watersheds, making them highly vulnerable to anthropogenic disturbances such as urbanization and climate change. Forecasting the effects of these disturbances using process-based models is critical to identifying the form and magnitude of likely impacts. Here, we integrate a new biotic model with four previously developed physical models (downscaled climate projections, stream hydrology, geomorphology, and water temperature) to predict how stream fish growth and reproduction will most probably respond to shifts in climate and urbanization over the next several decades. The biotic submodel couples dynamics in fish populations and habitat suitability to predict fish assemblage composition, based on readily available biotic information (preferences for habitat, temperature, and food, and characteristics of spawning) and day-to-day variability in stream conditions. We illustrate the model using Piedmont headwater streams in the Chesapeake Bay watershed of the USA, projecting ten scenarios: Baseline (low urbanization; no on-going construction; and present-day climate); one Urbanization scenario (higher impervious surface, lower forest cover, significant construction activity); four future climate change scenarios [Hadley CM3 and Parallel Climate Models under medium-high (A2) and medium-low (B2) emissions scenarios]; and the same four climate change scenarios plus Urbanization. Urbanization alone depressed growth or reproduction of 8 of 39 species, while climate change alone depressed 22 to 29 species. Almost every recreationally important species (i.e. trouts, basses, sunfishes) and six of the ten currently most common species were predicted to be significantly stressed. The combined effect of climate change and urbanization on adult growth was sometimes large compared to the effect of either stressor alone. Thus, the model predicts considerable change in fish assemblage composition, including loss of diversity. Synthesis and applications. The interaction of climate change and urban growth may entail significant reconfiguring of headwater streams, including a loss of ecosystem structure and services, which will be more costly than climate change alone. On local scales, stakeholders cannot control climate drivers but they can mitigate stream impacts via careful land use. Therefore, to conserve stream ecosystems, we recommend that proactive measures be taken to insure against species loss or severe population declines. Delays will inevitably exacerbate the impacts of both climate change and urbanization on headwater systems. PMID:19536343

Examining the contradiction in 'sustainable urban growth': an example of groundwater sustainability

USGS Publications Warehouse

Zellner, Moira L.; Reeves, Howard W.

2012-01-01

The environmental planning literature proposes a set of 'best management practices' for urban development that assumes improvement in environmental quality as a result of specific urban patterns. These best management practices, however, often do not recognise finite biophysical limits and social impacts that urban patterns alone cannot overcome. To shed light on this debate, we explore the effects of different degrees of urban clustering on groundwater levels using a coupled land-use change and groundwater-flow model. Our simulations show that specific urban forms only slow down the impact on groundwater. As population increases, the pattern in which it is accommodated ceases to matter, and widespread depletion ensues. These results are predictable, yet current planning practice tends to take growth for granted and is reluctant to envision either no-growth scenarios or the prospect of depletion. We propose to use simulations such as those presented here to aid in policy discussions that allow decision makers to question the assumption of sustainable growth and suggest alternative forms of development.

A self-modifying cellular automaton model of historical urbanization in the San Francisco Bay area

USGS Publications Warehouse

Clarke, K.C.; Hoppen, S.; Gaydos, L.

1997-01-01

In this paper we describe a cellular automaton (CA) simulation model developed to predict urban growth as part of a project for estimating the regional and broader impact of urbanization on the San Francisco Bay area's climate. The rules of the model are more complex than those of a typical CA and involve the use of multiple data sources, including topography, road networks, and existing settlement distributions, and their modification over time. In addition, the control parameters of the model are allowed to self-modify: that is, the CA adapts itself to the circumstances it generates, in particular, during periods of rapid growth or stagnation. In addition, the model was written to allow the accumulation of probabilistic estimates based on Monte Carlo methods. Calibration of the model has been accomplished by the use of historical maps to compare model predictions of urbanization, based solely upon the distribution in year 1900, with observed data for years 1940, 1954, 1962, 1974, and 1990. The complexity of this model has made calibration a particularly demanding step. Lessons learned about the methods, measures, and strategies developed to calibrate the model may be of use in other environmental modeling contexts. With the calibration complete, the model is being used to generate a set of future scenarios for the San Francisco Bay area along with their probabilities based on the Monte Carlo version of the model. Animated dynamic mapping of the simulations will be used to allow visualization of the impact of future urban growth.

Urban Expansion: a Geo-Spatial Approach for Temporal Monitoring of Loss of Agricultural Land

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sumari, N. S.; Shao, Z.; Huang, M.; Sanga, C. A.; Van Genderen, J. L.

2017-09-01

This paper presents some preliminary results from research on monitoring the urban growth of Shenzhen in China. Agriculture is still the pillar of national economies in many countries including China. Thus, agriculture contributes to population growth. Population growth follows either exponential or logistic growth models. These models can be examined using a time-series of geospatial data, mainly historical earth observation imagery from satellites such as LANDSAT. Such multitemporal data may provide insights into settlement analysis as well as on population dynamics and hence, quantify the loss of agricultural land. In this study, LANDSAT data of ten dates, at approximately five yearly intervals from 1977 to 2017 were used. The remote sensing techniques used for analysis of data for 40 years were image selection, then followed by geometric and radiometric corrections and mosaicking. Also, classification, remote sensing image fusion, and change detection methods were used. This research extracted the information on the amount, direction, and speed of urbanization, and hence, the number of hectares of agricultural land lost due to urban expansion. Several specific elements were used in the descriptive model of landscape changes and population dynamics of the city of Shenzhen in China. These elements are: i) quantify the urban changes, from a small town (37.000 people in the early 1970's) to the megalopolis of around 20 million habitants today. ii) Examining the rate of urban extension on the loss of agricultural landscape and population growth. iii) The loss of food production was analysed against the economic growth in the region. iv) The aspects of loss of agricultural land, area of built-up urban land, and increase in population are studied quantitatively, by the temporal analysis of earth observation geospatial data. The experimental results from this study show that the proposed method is effective in determining loss of agricultural land in any city due to urbanization. It can be used by town planner and other stakeholders such as land surveyors and agriculture experts to mitigate the mushrooming of unplanned settlements in many town / villages and loss of land for agriculture which might cause problems in food security.

Implications of rural-urban migration for conservation of the Atlantic Forest and urban growth in Misiones, Argentina (1970-2030).

PubMed

Izquierdo, Andrea E; Grau, Héctor R; Aide, T Mitchell

2011-05-01

Global trends of increasing rural-urban migration and population urbanization could provide opportunities for nature conservation, particularly in regions where deforestation is driven by subsistence agriculture. We analyzed the role of rural population as a driver of deforestation and its contribution to urban population growth from 1970 to the present in the Atlantic Forest of Argentina, a global conservation priority. We created future land-use-cover scenarios based on human demographic parameters and the relationship between rural population and land-cover change between 1970 and 2006. In 2006, native forest covered 50% of the province, but by 2030 all scenarios predicted a decrease that ranged from 18 to 39% forest cover. Between 1970 and 2001, rural migrants represented 20% of urban population growth and are expected to represent less than 10% by 2030. This modeling approach shows how rural-urban migration and land-use planning can favor nature conservation with little impact on urban areas.

Projecting Future Urbanization with Prescott College's Spatial Growth Model to Promote Environmental Sustainability and Smart Growth, A Case Study in Atlanta, Georgia

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Estes, Maurice G., Jr.; Crosson, William; Limaye, Ashutosh; Johnson, Hoyt; Quattrochi, Dale; Lapenta, William; Khan, Maudood

2006-01-01

Planning is an integral element of good management and necessary to anticipate events not merely respond to them. Projecting the quantity and spatial distribution of urban growth is essential to effectively plan for the delivery of city services and to evaluate potential environmental impacts. The major drivers of growth in large urban areas are increasing population, employment opportunities, and quality of life attractors such as a favorable climate and recreation opportunities. The spatial distribution of urban growth is dictated by the amount and location of developable land, topography, energy and water resources, transportation network, climate change, and the existing land use configuration. The Atlanta region is growing very rapidly both in population and the consumption of forestland or low-density residential development. Air pollution and water availability are significant ongoing environmental issues. The Prescott Spatial Growth Model (SGM) was used to make growth projections for the metropolitan Atlanta region to 2010,2020 and 2030 and results used for environmental assessment in both business as usual and smart growth scenarios. The Prescott SGM is a tool that uses an ESRI ArcView extension and can be applied at the parcel level or more coarse spatial scales and can accommodate a wide range of user inputs to develop any number of growth rules each of which can be weighted depending on growth assumptions. These projections were used in conjunction with meteorological and air quality models to evaluate future environmental impacts. This presentation will focus on the application of the SGM to the 13-County Atlanta Regional Commission planning jurisdiction as a case study. The SGM will be described, including how rule sets are developed and the decision process for allocation of future development to available land use categories. Data inputs required to effectively run the model will be discussed. Spatial growth projections for ten, twenty, and thirty year planning horizons will be presented and results discussed, including regional climate and air quality impacts.

Integrated remote sensing for multi-temporal analysis of urban land cover-climate interactions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Savastru, Dan M.; Zoran, Maria A.; Savastru, Roxana S.

2016-08-01

Climate change is considered to be the biggest environmental threat in the future in the South- Eastern part of Europe. In frame of predicted global warming, urban climate is an important issue in scientific research. Surface energy processes have an essential role in urban weather, climate and hydrosphere cycles, as well in urban heat redistribution. This paper investigated the influences of urban growth on thermal environment in relationship with other biophysical variables in Bucharest metropolitan area of Romania. Remote sensing data from Landsat TM/ETM+ and time series MODIS Terra/Aqua sensors have been used to assess urban land cover- climate interactions over period between 2000 and 2015 years. Vegetation abundances and percent impervious surfaces were derived by means of linear spectral mixture model, and a method for effectively enhancing impervious surface has been developed to accurately examine the urban growth. The land surface temperature (Ts), a key parameter for urban thermal characteristics analysis, was also analyzed in relation with the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) at city level. Based on these parameters, the urban growth, and urban heat island effect (UHI) and the relationships of Ts to other biophysical parameters have been analyzed. The correlation analyses revealed that, at the pixel-scale, Ts possessed a strong positive correlation with percent impervious surfaces and negative correlation with vegetation abundances at the regional scale, respectively. This analysis provided an integrated research scheme and the findings can be very useful for urban ecosystem modeling.

Cells, Agents, and Support Vectors in Interaction - Modeling Urban Sprawl based on Machine Learning and Artificial Intelligence Techniques in a Post-Industrial Region

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rienow, A.; Menz, G.

2015-12-01

Since the beginning of the millennium, artificial intelligence techniques as cellular automata (CA) and multi-agent systems (MAS) have been incorporated into land-system simulations to address the complex challenges of transitions in urban areas as open, dynamic systems. The study presents a hybrid modeling approach for modeling the two antagonistic processes of urban sprawl and urban decline at once. The simulation power of support vector machines (SVM), cellular automata (CA) and multi-agent systems (MAS) are integrated into one modeling framework and applied to the largest agglomeration of Central Europe: the Ruhr. A modified version of SLEUTH (short for Slope, Land-use, Exclusion, Urban, Transport, and Hillshade) functions as the CA component. SLEUTH makes use of historic urban land-use data sets and growth coefficients for the purpose of modeling physical urban expansion. The machine learning algorithm of SVM is applied in order to enhance SLEUTH. Thus, the stochastic variability of the CA is reduced and information about the human and ecological forces driving the local suitability of urban sprawl is incorporated. Subsequently, the supported CA is coupled with the MAS ReHoSh (Residential Mobility and the Housing Market of Shrinking City Systems). The MAS models population patterns, housing prices, and housing demand in shrinking regions based on interactions between household and city agents. Semi-explicit urban weights are introduced as a possibility of modeling from and to the pixel simultaneously. Three scenarios of changing housing preferences reveal the urban development of the region in terms of quantity and location. They reflect the dissemination of sustainable thinking among stakeholders versus the steady dream of owning a house in sub- and exurban areas. Additionally, the outcomes are transferred into a digital petri dish reflecting a synthetic environment with perfect conditions of growth. Hence, the generic growth elements affecting the future face of post-industrial cities are revealed. Finally, the advantages and limitations of linking pixels and people by combining AI and machine learning techniques in a multi-scale geosimulation approach are to be discussed.

Six decades of urban growth using remote sensing and GIS in the city of Bandar Abbas, Iran

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dadras, Mohsen; Zulhaidi Mohd Shafri, Helmi; Ahmad, Noordin; Pradhan, Biswajeet; Safarpour, Sahabeh

2014-06-01

Bandar Abbas is the capital city of Hormozgan province, is the south of Iran. The city has witnessed rapid growth in the last three decades, mostly because of its economic, commercial and social attractions. However, forms and operations of urban sprawl may vary in important manners according to determine geographical and historical characteristics, and these difference need to be reviewed with creation geodatabase of spatial and attribute data during past periods until now of urban formation and expansion. We implemented this research to understand Bandar Abbas city growth dynamic during last six decades using aerial photo, Remote Sensing (RS) data and Geographical Information System (GIS), to investigate its sprawl for the during six decades and to prepare a basis for urban planning and management. We calibrated it with geospatial data derived from a time series of aerial photos and satellite images. Treated remote sensing data covering the six decades were used to calculate land use/cover and urban growth. The application of classification techniques to the remote sensing data enabled the extraction of eight main types of land use: agricultural, barren, coastal, hole, river, rocky hill, urban, and built-up. Growth was calculated through Shannon's entropy model. The urbanized area increased from 403.77 ha to 4959.59 ha from 1956 to 2012, a rate almost five times that of the population growth observed in the same period. Such findings make the case of Bandar Abbas important for several reasons. First, Bandar Abbas has undergone a rapid increase in urban sprawl according to urban growth indicators. Second, the urban sprawl quickly grew from medium-sized to large a process considered inappropriate according to physical and structural limitations on urban growth. Lastly, the excessive extension of the built-up boundary in the city resulted in the loss of coastal land and open space, two main sources of tourist attraction and economic sustainable development.

Urban forests for sustainable urban development

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sundara, Denny M.; Hartono, Djoko M.; Suganda, Emirhadi; Haeruman, S. Herman J.

2017-11-01

This paper explores the development of the urban forest in East Jakarta. By 2030 Jakarta area has a target of 30% green area covering 19,845 hectares, including urban forest covering an area of 4,631 hectares. In 2015, the city forest is only 646 hectares, while the city requires 3,985 hectares of new land Urban forest growth from year to year showed a marked decrease with increasing land area awoke to commercial functions, environmental conditions encourage the development of the city to become unsustainable. This research aims to support sustainable urban development and ecological balance through the revitalization of green areas and urban development. Analytical methods for urban forest area is calculated based on the amount of CO2 that comes from people, vehicles, and industrial. Urban spatial analysis based on satellite image data, using a GIS program is an analysis tool to determine the distribution and growth patterns of green areas. This paper uses a dynamic system model to simulate the conditions of the region against intervention to be performed on potential areas for development of urban forests. The result is a model urban forest area is integrated with a social and economic function to encourage the development of sustainable cities.

Urban Cultural Heritage Endangerment: Degradation of historico-cultural landscapes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vaz, Eric; Cabral, Pedro; Caetano, Mário; Painho, Marco; Nijkamp, Peter

2010-05-01

Sustainable development has become one of the great debates of policy-making of the XXI century. The world, is facing unprecedented change following the anthropocentrism of socio-economic growth. However, the commitment of man to ‘transmit to future generations at least the same as had' (ref) seems to be a narrowing, given extensive urban growth, population increase and climate change. However, over the last twenty years, the usage of spatial information systems have brought a positive contribution for better acknowledging the problem of environmental change, and bringing more constructive approaches to planning. Prompted by much research interest in Europe, a broad specter of biodiversity loss models, pollution and environmental degradation algorithms as well as climate change models, have become important tools under the European umbrella. Recognizing the essence of sustainable development, historico-cultural and archaeological regions have a remarkable role in the transformation of landscapes and maintenance of cultural and regional identity. Furthermore, the socio-economic, political-geographic and cultural-scientific history of the dynamics of places and localities on our earth is reflected in their historico-cultural heritage. This patrimony comprises cultural assets, such as old churches, palaces, museums, urban parks, historical architecture of cities, or landscapes of historical interest. Historico-cultural heritage also includes archaeological sites, which sometimes not only have a local value but may have a worldwide significance (e.g. Pompeii). However, massive urban growth is affecting directly the existing historico-cultural resources throughout the European region, and little attention is given to this juxtaposing reality of peri-urban growth and cultural / archaeological heritage preservation. Also, the settling patterns within historico-cultural local clusters follow a similar pattern as current growth tendencies, given the physical conditions of land-use. This brings forth a dichotomy between areas to cope with population increase (and therefore highly probable of urbanization) and regions of valuable historico-cultural and archaeological legacy. To bridge this dichotomy, this paper attempts to provide a methodology for measuring cultural heritage endangerment brought by urban pressure. By using spatial modeling to prompt urban growth combined with archaeological predictive models, composing a secondary layer, a propensity map for areas with extremely high cultural value and where urban growth should be dealt with especial care become evident. Fundamentally, the joined model of Cultural Heritage Endangerment, tackles a recent and unprecedented problem at global level: Committing urban planning to allow the conservation of cultural and archaeological legacy for future generation. In an attempt to abridge the consequences of the decadence of historico-cultural landscapes, the historico-cultural endangerment (HCE) method will be applied to two entirely different regions in the world. On one side, the methodology will be applied on a regional emphasis in the Algarve region in Portugal, addressing the input of maintaining the integrity of archaeological landscapes, and on the other, a local micro-simulation of the Giza Pyramids in Egypt, shall allow to envision a segment of local consequences of urban pressure on irreplaceable monuments. The conclusions of both study-cases abridge the global nature of this problem as well as the importance of HCE implementation at different scales.

Excellent approach to modeling urban expansion by fuzzy cellular automata: agent base model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Khajavigodellou, Yousef; Alesheikh, Ali A.; Mohammed, Abdulrazak A. S.; Chapi, Kamran

2014-09-01

Recently, the interaction between humans and their environment is the one of important challenges in the world. Landuse/ cover change (LUCC) is a complex process that includes actors and factors at different social and spatial levels. The complexity and dynamics of urban systems make the applicable practice of urban modeling very difficult. With the increased computational power and the greater availability of spatial data, micro-simulation such as the agent based and cellular automata simulation methods, has been developed by geographers, planners, and scholars, and it has shown great potential for representing and simulating the complexity of the dynamic processes involved in urban growth and land use change. This paper presents Fuzzy Cellular Automata in Geospatial Information System and remote Sensing to simulated and predicted urban expansion pattern. These FCA-based dynamic spatial urban models provide an improved ability to forecast and assess future urban growth and to create planning scenarios, allowing us to explore the potential impacts of simulations that correspond to urban planning and management policies. A fuzzy inference guided cellular automata approach. Semantic or linguistic knowledge on Land use change is expressed as fuzzy rules, based on which fuzzy inference is applied to determine the urban development potential for each pixel. The model integrates an ABM (agent-based model) and FCA (Fuzzy Cellular Automata) to investigate a complex decision-making process and future urban dynamic processes. Based on this model rapid development and green land protection under the influences of the behaviors and decision modes of regional authority agents, real estate developer agents, resident agents and non- resident agents and their interactions have been applied to predict the future development patterns of the Erbil metropolitan region.

Geosimulation of urban growth and demographic decline in the Ruhr: a case study for 2025 using the artificial intelligence of cells and agents

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rienow, Andreas; Stenger, Dirk

2014-07-01

The Ruhr is an "old acquaintance" in the discourse of urban decline in old industrialized cities. The agglomeration has to struggle with archetypical problems of former monofunctional manufacturing cities. Surprisingly, the image of a shrinking city has to be refuted if you shift the focus from socioeconomic wealth to its morphological extension. Thus, it is the objective of this study to meet the challenge of modeling urban sprawl and demographic decline by combining two artificial intelligent solutions: The popular urban cellular automaton SLEUTH simulates urban growth using four simple but effective growth rules. In order to improve its performance, SLEUTH has been modified among others by combining it with a robust probability map based on support vector machines. Additionally, a complex multi-agent system is developed to simulate residential mobility in a shrinking city agglomeration: residential mobility and the housing market of shrinking city systems focuses on the dynamic of interregional housing markets implying the development of potential dwelling areas. The multi-agent system comprises the simulation of population patterns, housing prices, and housing demand in shrinking city agglomerations. Both models are calibrated and validated regarding their localization and quantification performance. Subsequently, the urban landscape configuration and composition of the Ruhr 2025 are simulated. A simple spatial join is used to combine the results serving as valuable inputs for future regional planning in the context of multifarious demographic change and preceding urban growth.

Sustained growth but non-sustainable urbanisation in Penang, Malaysia.

PubMed

Fold, N; Wangel, A

1998-05-01

Penang, Malaysia, has been a city characterized by urban growth and rapid industrialization for the past 25 years. Foreign capital, especially from the transnational electronics industry, has spurred the process of urban growth in the city. While the state government is clearly trying to copy and adapt some form of a Singapore model of development and growth in Penang, the quantitative and qualitative demands for labor exceed the available supply from the country's northern states. Local and national labor policies are decided without the involvement of trade unions, which lack the strength to substantially improve wages or influence the institutions of the labor market. Therefore, an energized labor market attempts to balance the upgrading of skills and the control of wages. Focus upon sustainable urbanization will renew the debate on urban, export-oriented industrialization in southeast Asia.

Empirical Research on Decoupling Relationship between Energy-Related Carbon Emission and Economic Growth in Guangdong Province Based on Extended Kaya Identity

PubMed Central

Wang, Wenxiu; Huang, Ningsheng; Zhao, Daiqing

2014-01-01

The decoupling elasticity decomposition quantitative model of energy-related carbon emission in Guangdong is established based on the extended Kaya identity and Tapio decoupling model for the first time, to explore the decoupling relationship and its internal mechanism between energy-related carbon emission and economic growth in Guangdong. Main results are as follows. (1) Total production energy-related carbon emissions in Guangdong increase from 4128 × 104 tC in 1995 to 14396 × 104 tC in 2011. Decoupling elasticity values of energy-related carbon emission and economic growth increase from 0.53 in 1996 to 0.85 in 2011, and its decoupling state turns from weak decoupling in 1996–2004 to expansive coupling in 2005–2011. (2) Land economic output and energy intensity are the first inhibiting factor and the first promoting factor to energy-related carbon emission decoupling from economic growth, respectively. The development speeds of land urbanization and population urbanization, especially land urbanization, play decisive roles in the change of total decoupling elasticity values. (3) Guangdong can realize decoupling of energy-related carbon emission from economic growth effectively by adjusting the energy mix and industrial structure, coordinating the development speed of land urbanization and population urbanization effectively, and strengthening the construction of carbon sink. PMID:24782666

Empirical research on decoupling relationship between energy-related carbon emission and economic growth in Guangdong province based on extended Kaya identity.

PubMed

Wang, Wenxiu; Kuang, Yaoqiu; Huang, Ningsheng; Zhao, Daiqing

2014-01-01

The decoupling elasticity decomposition quantitative model of energy-related carbon emission in Guangdong is established based on the extended Kaya identity and Tapio decoupling model for the first time, to explore the decoupling relationship and its internal mechanism between energy-related carbon emission and economic growth in Guangdong. Main results are as follows. (1) Total production energy-related carbon emissions in Guangdong increase from 4128 × 10⁴ tC in 1995 to 14396 × 10⁴ tC in 2011. Decoupling elasticity values of energy-related carbon emission and economic growth increase from 0.53 in 1996 to 0.85 in 2011, and its decoupling state turns from weak decoupling in 1996-2004 to expansive coupling in 2005-2011. (2) Land economic output and energy intensity are the first inhibiting factor and the first promoting factor to energy-related carbon emission decoupling from economic growth, respectively. The development speeds of land urbanization and population urbanization, especially land urbanization, play decisive roles in the change of total decoupling elasticity values. (3) Guangdong can realize decoupling of energy-related carbon emission from economic growth effectively by adjusting the energy mix and industrial structure, coordinating the development speed of land urbanization and population urbanization effectively, and strengthening the construction of carbon sink.

Monitoring urbanization and its implications in a mega city from space: spatiotemporal patterns and its indicators.

PubMed

Ramachandra, T V; Bharath, A H; Sowmyashree, M V

2015-01-15

Rapid and invasive urbanization has been associated with depletion of natural resources (vegetation and water resources), which in turn deteriorates the landscape structure and conditions in the local environment. Rapid increase in population due to the migration from rural areas is one of the critical issues of the urban growth. Urbanisation in India is drastically changing the land cover and often resulting in the sprawl. The sprawl regions often lack basic amenities such as treated water supply, sanitation, etc. This necessitates regular monitoring and understanding of the rate of urban development in order to ensure the sustenance of natural resources .Urban sprawl is the extent of urbanization which leads to the development of urban forms with the destruction of ecology and natural landforms. The rate of change of land use and extent of urban sprawl can be efficiently visualized and modelled with the help of geoinformatics. The knowledge of urban area, especially the growth magnitude, shape geometry, and spatial pattern is essential to understand the growth and characteristics of urbanization process. Urban pattern, shape and growth can be quantified using spatial metrics. This communication quantifies the urbanisation and associated growth pattern in Delhi. Spatial data of four decades were analysed to understand land over and land use dynamics. Further the region was divided into 4 zones and into circles of 1 km incrementing radius to understand and quantify the local spatial changes. Results of the landscape metrics indicate that the urban center was highly aggregated and the outskirts and the buffer regions were in the verge of aggregating urban patches. Shannon's Entropy index clearly depicted the outgrowth of sprawl areas in different zones of Delhi. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Project ATLANTA (Atlanta Land use Analysis: Temperature and Air Quality): Use of Remote Sensing and Modeling to Analyze How Urban Land Use Change Affects Meteorology and Air Quality Through Time

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Quattrochi, Dale A.; Luvall, Jeffrey C.; Estes, Maurice G., Jr.

1999-01-01

This paper presents an overview of Project ATLANTA (ATlanta Land use ANalysis: Temperature and Air-quality) which is an investigation that seeks to observe, measure, model, and analyze how the rapid growth of the Atlanta, Georgia metropolitan area since the early 1970's has impacted the region's climate and air quality. The primary objectives for this research effort are: (1) To investigate and model the relationships between land cover change in the Atlanta metropolitan, and the development of the urban heat island phenomenon through time; (2) To investigate and model the temporal relationships between Atlanta urban growth and land cover change on air quality; and (3) To model the overall effects of urban development on surface energy budget characteristics across the Atlanta urban landscape through time. Our key goal is to derive a better scientific understanding of how land cover changes associated with urbanization in the Atlanta area, principally in transforming forest lands to urban land covers through time, has, and will, effect local and regional climate, surface energy flux, and air quality characteristics. Allied with this goal is the prospect that the results from this research can be applied by urban planners, environmental managers and other decision-makers, for determining how urbanization has impacted the climate and overall environment of the Atlanta area. Multiscaled remote sensing data, particularly high resolution thermal infrared data, are integral to this study for the analysis of thermal energy fluxes across the Atlanta urban landscape.

Charecterisation and Modelling Urbanisation Pattern in Sillicon Valley of India

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Aithal, B. H.

2015-12-01

Urbanisation and Urban sprawl has led to environmental problems and large losses of arable land in India. In this study, we characterise pattern of urban growth and model urban sprawl by means of a combination of remote sensing, geographical information system, spatial metrics and CA based modelling. This analysis uses time-series data to explore and derive the potential political-socio-economic- land based driving forces behind urbanisation and urban sprawl, and spatial models in different scenarios to explore the spatio-temporal interactions and development. The study area applied is Greater Bangalore, for the period from 1973 to 2015. Further water bodies depletion, vegetation depletion, tree cover were also analysed to obtain specific region based results effecting global climate and regional balance. Agents were integrated successfully into modelling aspects to understand and foresee the landscape pattern change in urban morphology. The results reveal built-up paved surfaces has expanded towards the outskirts and have expanded into the buffer regions around the city. Population growth, economic, industrial developments in the city core and transportation development are still the main causes of urban sprawl in the region. Agent based model are considered to be to the traditional models. Agent Based modelling approach as seen in this paper clearly shown its effectiveness in capturing the micro dynamics and influence in its neighbourhood mapping. Greenhouse gas emission inventory has shown important aspects such as domestic sector to be one of the major impact categories in the region. Further tree cover reduced drastically and is evident from the statistics and determines that if city is in verge of creating a chaos in terms of human health and desertification. Study concludes that integration of remote sensing, GIS, and agent based modelling offers an excellent opportunity to explore the spatio-temporal variation and visulaisation of sprawling metropolitan region. This study give a complete overview of urbanisation and effects being caused due to urban sprawl in the region and help planners and city managers in understanding the future pockets and scenarios of urban growth.

Vulnerability of the Metropolitan District of Quito's Water Resources in the face of Climatic and Anthropogenic Uncertainties

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Depsky, N. J.; Flores-Lopez, F.

2014-12-01

Earlier this year the Stockholm Environment Institute (SEI) concluded a vulnerability analysis for the Metropolitan District of Quito (DMQ) in Ecuador. Vulnerability assessments were done for five sectors in the region: water resources, public health, agriculture, ecosystems and forest fires. This abstract focuses specifically on the vulnerability of the DMQ's water resources to climatic and anthropogenic uncertainties. This analysis focused on vulnerability of potable water supply for the city of Quito, as well as industrial and agricultural water needs. Current and future vulnerability was assessed in the face of a number of scenarios of climatic and non-climatic uncertainties. The assessment used an integrated water resources model developed by Quito's National Polytechnic University for the surrounding Guayllabamba river basin. The model was built using the Water Evaluation and Planning (WEAP) software, and encompasses the urban, rural/agricultural, and industrial demands throughout the basin, linking them with existing surface and ground-water supplies. Five future scenarios were constructed in the WEAP basin model out the year 2050 in order to assess their effects: Urban population growth (~70% by 2050). Urban population growth + rising mean air temperatures (~+2°C by 2050). Urban population growth + rising temperatures + drought (recurring 3-year drought cycles built into the projection) Urban population growth + rising temperatures + conversion of 'paramo' alpine tundra ecosystem into cultivated land. (WEAP allows the user to define various types of land cover extent throughout the basin, along with their unique physical characteristics to simulate rainfall-runoff. Conversion of 'paramo' land cover to agriculture was evaluated to see potential effects it may have on the system's hydrology) Urban population growth + rising temperatures + drought + conversion of 'paramos' Coverage of demands in the model was used as the primary vulnerability metric, with urban demands experiencing supply shortages of up to 20-25% under the most stressful scenarios, a shortage which is dampened by significantly increased groundwater pumping. Rural and industrial demands suffer much more severe shortages, with nearly all demands going unmet in a number of scenarios.

Remote sensing of impervious surface growth: A framework for quantifying urban expansion and re-densification mechanisms

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shahtahmassebi, Amir Reza; Song, Jie; Zheng, Qing; Blackburn, George Alan; Wang, Ke; Huang, Ling Yan; Pan, Yi; Moore, Nathan; Shahtahmassebi, Golnaz; Sadrabadi Haghighi, Reza; Deng, Jing Song

2016-04-01

A substantial body of literature has accumulated on the topic of using remotely sensed data to map impervious surfaces which are widely recognized as an important indicator of urbanization. However, the remote sensing of impervious surface growth has not been successfully addressed. This study proposes a new framework for deriving and summarizing urban expansion and re-densification using time series of impervious surface fractions (ISFs) derived from remotely sensed imagery. This approach integrates multiple endmember spectral mixture analysis (MESMA), analysis of regression residuals, spatial statistics (Getis_Ord) and urban growth theories; hence, the framework is abbreviated as MRGU. The performance of MRGU was compared with commonly used change detection techniques in order to evaluate the effectiveness of the approach. The results suggested that the ISF regression residuals were optimal for detecting impervious surface changes while Getis_Ord was effective for mapping hotspot regions in the regression residuals image. Moreover, the MRGU outputs agreed with the mechanisms proposed in several existing urban growth theories, but importantly the outputs enable the refinement of such models by explicitly accounting for the spatial distribution of both expansion and re-densification mechanisms. Based on Landsat data, the MRGU is somewhat restricted in its ability to measure re-densification in the urban core but this may be improved through the use of higher spatial resolution satellite imagery. The paper ends with an assessment of the present gaps in remote sensing of impervious surface growth and suggests some solutions. The application of impervious surface fractions in urban change detection is a stimulating new research idea which is driving future research with new models and algorithms.

Modeling Urban Growth Spatial Dynamics: Case studies of Addis Ababa and Dar es Salaam

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Buchta, Katja; Abo El Wafa, Hany; Printz, Andreas; Pauleit, Stephan

2013-04-01

Rapid urbanization, and consequently, the dramatic spatial expansion of mostly informal urban areas increases the vulnerability of African cities to the effects of climate change such as sea level rise, more frequent flooding, droughts and heat waves. The EU FP 7 funded project CLUVA (Climate Change and Urban Vulnerability in Africa, www.cluva.eu) aims to develop strategies for minimizing the risks of natural hazards caused by climate change and to improve the coping capacity of African cities. Green infrastructure may play a particular role in climate change adaptation by providing ecosystem services for flood protection, stormwater retention, heat island moderation and provision of food and fuel wood. In this context, a major challenge is to gain a better understanding of the spatial and temporal dynamics of the cities and how these impact on green infrastructure and hence their vulnerability. Urban growth scenarios for two African cities, namely Addis Ababa, Ethiopia and Dar es Salaam, Tanzania, were developed based on a characterization of their urban morphology. A population growth driven - GIS based - disaggregation modeling approach was applied. Major impact factors influencing the urban dynamics were identified both from literature and interviews with local experts. Location based factors including proximity to road infrastructure and accessibility, and environmental factors including slope, surface and flood risk areas showed a particular impact on urban growth patterns. In Addis Ababa and Dar es Salaam, population density scenarios were modeled comparing two housing development strategies. Results showed that a densification scenario significantly decreases the loss of agricultural and green areas such as forests, bushland and sports grounds. In Dar es Salaam, the scenario of planned new settlements with a population density of max. 350 persons per hectare would lead until 2025 to a loss of agricultural land (-10.1%) and green areas (-6.6%). On the other hand, 12.4% of agricultural land and 16.1% of green areas would be lost in the low density development scenario of unplanned settlements of max. 150 persons per hectare. Relocating the population living in flood prone areas in the case of Addis Ababa and keeping those areas free from further settlements in the case of Dar es Salaam would result in even lower losses (agricultural land: -10.0%, green areas: -5.6%) as some flood prone areas overlap with agricultural/ green areas. The scenario models introduced in this research can be used by planners as tools to understand and manage the different outcomes of distinctive urban development strategies on growth patterns and how they interact with different climate change drivers such as loss of green infrastructure and effects such as frequent flooding hazards. Due to the relative simplicity of their structure and the single modeling environment, the models can be transferred to similar cities with minor modifications accommodating the different conditions of each city. Already, in Addis Ababa the results of the model will be used in the current revision of the Master plan of the city. Keywords: GIS, modeling, Urban Dynamics, Dar es Salaam, Addis Ababa, urbanization

Decoupling emissions of greenhouse gas, urbanization, energy and income: analysis from the economy of China.

PubMed

Wang, Tianqiong; Riti, Joshua Sunday; Shu, Yang

2018-05-08

The adoption and ratification of relevant policies, particularly the household enrolment system metamorphosis in China, led to rising urbanization growth. As the leading developing economy, China has experienced a drastic and rapid increase in the rate of urbanization, energy use, economic growth and greenhouse gas (GHG) pollution for the past 30 years. The knowledge of the dynamic interrelationships among these trends has a plethora of implications ranging from demographic, energy, and environmental and sustainable development policies. This study analyzes the role of urbanization in decoupling GHG emissions, energy, and income in China while considering the critical contribution of energy use. As a contribution to the extant body of literature, the present research introduces a new phenomenon called "the environmental urbanization Kuznets curve" (EUKC), which shows that at the early stage of urbanization, the environment degrades however, after a threshold point the technique effects surface and environmental degradation reduces with rise in urbanization. Applying the autoregressive distributed lag model and the vector error correction model, the paper finds the presence of inverted U-shaped curve between urbanization and GHG emission of CO 2 , while the same hypothesis cannot be found between income and GHG emission of CO 2 . Energy use in all the models contributes to GHG emission of CO 2 . In decoupling greenhouse gas emissions, urbanization, energy, and income, articulated and well-implemented energy and urbanization policies should be considered.

Fine-resolution Modeling of Urban-Energy Systems' Water Footprint in River Networks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

McManamay, R.; Surendran Nair, S.; Morton, A.; DeRolph, C.; Stewart, R.

2015-12-01

Characterizing the interplay between urbanization, energy production, and water resources is essential for ensuring sustainable population growth. In order to balance limited water supplies, competing users must account for their realized and virtual water footprint, i.e. the total direct and indirect amount of water used, respectively. Unfortunately, publicly reported US water use estimates are spatially coarse, temporally static, and completely ignore returns of water to rivers after use. These estimates are insufficient to account for the high spatial and temporal heterogeneity of water budgets in urbanizing systems. Likewise, urbanizing areas are supported by competing sources of energy production, which also have heterogeneous water footprints. Hence, a fundamental challenge of planning for sustainable urban growth and decision-making across disparate policy sectors lies in characterizing inter-dependencies among urban systems, energy producers, and water resources. A modeling framework is presented that provides a novel approach to integrate urban-energy infrastructure into a spatial accounting network that accurately measures water footprints as changes in the quantity and quality of river flows. River networks (RNs), i.e. networks of branching tributaries nested within larger rivers, provide a spatial structure to measure water budgets by modeling hydrology and accounting for use and returns from urbanizing areas and energy producers. We quantify urban-energy water footprints for Atlanta, GA and Knoxville, TN (USA) based on changes in hydrology in RNs. Although water intakes providing supply to metropolitan areas were proximate to metropolitan areas, power plants contributing to energy demand in Knoxville and Atlanta, occurred 30 and 90km outside the metropolitan boundary, respectively. Direct water footprints from urban landcover primarily comprised smaller streams whereas indirect footprints from water supply reservoirs and energy producers included larger river systems. By using projections in urban populations for 2030 and 2050, we estimated scenarios of expansion in water footprints depending on urban growth policies and energy production technology. We provide examples of how this framework can be used to minimize water footprints and impacts to aquatic biodiversity.

Evaluating land-use change scenarios for the Puget Sound Basin, Washington, within the ecosystem recovery target model-based framework

USGS Publications Warehouse

Villarreal, Miguel; Labiosa, Bill; Aiello, Danielle

2017-05-23

The Puget Sound Basin, Washington, has experienced rapid urban growth in recent decades, with varying impacts to local ecosystems and natural resources. To plan for future growth, land managers often use scenarios to assess how the pattern and volume of growth may affect natural resources. Using three different land-management scenarios for the years 2000–2060, we assessed various spatial patterns of urban growth relative to maps depicting a model-based characterization of the ecological integrity and recent development pressure of individual land parcels. The three scenarios depict future trajectories of land-use change under alternative management strategies—status quo, managed growth, and unconstrained growth. The resulting analysis offers a preliminary assessment of how future growth patterns in the Puget Sound Basin may impact land targeted for conservation and how short-term metrics of land-development pressure compare to longer term growth projections.

Agent-based model to rural urban migration analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Silveira, Jaylson J.; Espíndola, Aquino L.; Penna, T. J. P.

2006-05-01

In this paper, we analyze the rural-urban migration phenomenon as it is usually observed in economies which are in the early stages of industrialization. The analysis is conducted by means of a statistical mechanics approach which builds a computational agent-based model. Agents are placed on a lattice and the connections among them are described via an Ising-like model. Simulations on this computational model show some emergent properties that are common in developing economies, such as a transitional dynamics characterized by continuous growth of urban population, followed by the equalization of expected wages between rural and urban sectors (Harris-Todaro equilibrium condition), urban concentration and increasing of per capita income.

[Delineation of urban development boundary based on the combination of rigidity and elasti-city: A case of Yiwu City in Zhejiang Province, China.

PubMed

Qiu, Si Qi; Yue, Wen Ze

2018-05-01

Under the background of rapid urbanization, we took the contradiction between the rapid urbanization and resource environment protection as the starting point, conducted some theoretical research on urban growth boundary. Based on the definition of urban development boundary, we took Yiwu City, Zhejiang Province as a typical instance. Firstly, this study delimited the ecological boundary as ecological basic constraint area, using the methods of ecological red line discrimination and ecological sensitivity evaluation. Furthermore, the MCE-CA model was used in simulating the city size in 2020, making some adjustments to the moderate and low ecological-sensitive areas in the eco-sensitivity assessing, and delimiting the size of urban growth boundary and elastic control zones. The results showed that the ecological constraint area with a total area of385.2 km 2 and outside of the ecological boundary was the security line of urban development and construction. The urban growth boundary with a total area of 163.3 km 2 was not only the spatial boundary that could be constructed now, but also could meet the future development and construction. The district between the ecological boundary and urban growth boundary was an elastic control zone, in which urban development activities were allowed, but the size of construction could not exceed 8.5% of the total urban development boundary area. Our results delimited the urban development boundary under the rigidity and elasticity, which could guide the urban space development and provide a theoretical reference for China.

Beyond urban penalty and urban sprawl: back to living conditions as the focus of urban health.

PubMed

Freudenberg, Nicholas; Galea, Sandro; Vlahov, David

2005-02-01

Researchers have long studied urban health, both to describe the consequences of urban living and to design interventions to promote the health of people living in cities. Two approaches to understanding the impact of cities on health have been dominant, namely, urban health penalty and urban sprawl. The urban penalty approach posits that cities concentrate poor people and expose them to unhealthy physical and social environments. Urban sprawl focuses on the adverse health and environmental effects of urban growth into outlying areas. We propose a model that integrates these approaches and emphasizes urban living conditions as the primary determinant of health. The aim of the model is to move beyond describing the health-related characteristics of various urban populations towards identifying opportunities for intervention. Such a shift in framework enables meaningful comparisons that can inform public health activities at the appropriate level and evaluate their effectiveness in improving the health of urban populations. The model is illustrated with two examples from current urban public health practice.

Exploring the effects of population growth on future land use change in the Las Vegas Wash watershed: an integrated approach of geospatial modeling and analytics

EPA Science Inventory

The Las Vegas Valley metropolitan area is one of the fastest growing areas in the southwestern United States. The rapid urbanization has led to many environmental problems. For instance, as population growth and urbanization continue, there will be a problem with water shortage. ...

Urban growth, climate change, and freshwater availability

PubMed Central

McDonald, Robert I.; Green, Pamela; Balk, Deborah; Fekete, Balazs M.; Revenga, Carmen; Todd, Megan; Montgomery, Mark

2011-01-01

Nearly 3 billion additional urban dwellers are forecasted by 2050, an unprecedented wave of urban growth. While cities struggle to provide water to these new residents, they will also face equally unprecedented hydrologic changes due to global climate change. Here we use a detailed hydrologic model, demographic projections, and climate change scenarios to estimate per-capita water availability for major cities in the developing world, where urban growth is the fastest. We estimate the amount of water physically available near cities and do not account for problems with adequate water delivery or quality. Modeled results show that currently 150 million people live in cities with perennial water shortage, defined as having less than 100 L per person per day of sustainable surface and groundwater flow within their urban extent. By 2050, demographic growth will increase this figure to almost 1 billion people. Climate change will cause water shortage for an additional 100 million urbanites. Freshwater ecosystems in river basins with large populations of urbanites with insufficient water will likely experience flows insufficient to maintain ecological process. Freshwater fish populations will likely be impacted, an issue of special importance in regions such as India's Western Ghats, where there is both rapid urbanization and high levels of fish endemism. Cities in certain regions will struggle to find enough water for the needs of their residents and will need significant investment if they are to secure adequate water supplies and safeguard functioning freshwater ecosystems for future generations. PMID:21444797

LAND USE CHANGE DUE TO URBANIZATION FOR THE NEUSE RIVER BASIN

EPA Science Inventory

The Urban Growth Model (UGM) was applied to analysis of land use change in the Neuse River Basin as part of a larger project for estimating the regional and broader impact of urbanization. UGM is based on cellular automation (CA) simulation techniques developed at the University...

Urban Sustainability and Public Health: Throwing the Bath Water Out and Not the Baby

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Quattrochi, Dale A.

2009-01-01

This slide presentation reviews the affect of urbanization on community health. It exams urbanization trends in the Atlanta metro area and includes information on impervious surfaces, air quality, mitigation strategies, spatial growth modeling, land use, public health surveillance and different data collection methods.

The Effect of Urban Sprawls on Timber Harvesting

Treesearch

Stephen A. Barlow; Ian A Munn; David A. Cleaves; David L. Evans

1998-01-01

In Mississippi and Alabama, urban population growth is pushing development into rural areas. To study the impact of urbanization on timber harvesting, census and forest inventory data were combined in a geographic information system, and a logistic regression model was used to estimate the relationship between several variables and harvest probabilities....

The application of remote sensing techniques to selected inter and intra urban data acquisition problems

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Horton, F. E.

1970-01-01

The utility of remote sensing techniques to urban data acquisition problems in several distinct areas was identified. This endeavor included a comparison of remote sensing systems for urban data collection, the extraction of housing quality data from aerial photography, utilization of photographic sensors in urban transportation studies, urban change detection, space photography utilization, and an application of remote sensing techniques to the acquisition of data concerning intra-urban commercial centers. The systematic evaluation of variable extraction for urban modeling and planning at several different scales, and the model derivation for identifying and predicting economic growth and change within a regional system of cities are also studied.

Projected impact of urbanization on cardiovascular disease in China.

PubMed

Chan, Faye; Adamo, Susana; Coxson, Pamela; Goldman, Lee; Gu, Dongfeng; Zhao, Dong; Chen, Chung-Shiuan; He, Jiang; Mara, Valentina; Moran, Andrew

2012-10-01

The Coronary Heart Disease (CHD) Policy Model-China, a national scale cardiovascular disease computer simulation model, was used to project future impact of urbanization. Populations and cardiovascular disease incidence rates were stratified into four submodels: North-Urban, South-Urban, North-Rural, and South-Rural. 2010 was the base year, and high and low urbanization rate scenarios were used to project 2030 populations. Rural-to-urban migration, population growth, and aging were projected to more than double cardiovascular disease events in urban areas and increase events by 27.0-45.6% in rural areas. Urbanization is estimated to raise age-standardized coronary heart disease incidence by 73-81 per 100,000 and stroke incidence only slightly. Rural-to-urban migration will likely be a major demographic driver of the cardiovascular disease epidemic in China.

Rainfall-runoff simulation in urban hydology - An indoor physical model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Isidoro, Jorge; Silveira, Alexandre; da Silva, António; Gonçalves, Flávio; de Deus, Fábio; dos Reis, Simone

2015-04-01

According to the UN the current levels of urbanization are unprecedented and so is the number and size of the world's largest cities. Moreover, in the next four decades, all of the world's population growth is most likely to take place in urban areas. This growth will include a draw in some of the rural population through rural to urban migration. The increase in size of individual concentrations of people (e.g., cities) is a consequence of the urbanization process that has an important role on the rainfall-runoff process. This reality implies more attention to the study of urban flooding, among other natural hazards. This work aims to present a laboratory (indoor) physical model at a 1:100 scale of an urban area under simulated rainfall (pressurized nozzles). The model, a V-shaped rectangular area (2.00m × 4.00m) with the ability to adjust its longitudinal and transversal slopes, allows placing blocks simulating several geometries of buildings. This model was conceived and developed at the Institute of Science and Technology of the Federal University of Alfenas (MG) in Brazil, where it is used for research and teaching activities. Several experiments were completed in order to simulate the rainfall-runoff process over an impervious area with and without buildings, with distinct longitudinal and transversal slopes. Significant differences were found in the shape of the resulting hydrographs. This work will allow assessing the possibility of scaling the results obtained with this indoor model to a larger-scale (1:25 to 1:10) outdoor model which is currently being designed.

Monitoring Urbanization-Related Land Cover Change on the U.S. Great Plains and Impacts on Remotely Sensed Vegetation Dynamics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Krehbiel, C. P.; Jackson, T.; Henebry, G. M.

2014-12-01

Earth is currently in an era of rapid urban growth with >50% of global population living in urban areas. Urbanization occurs alongside urban population growth, as cities expand to meet the demands of increasing population. Consequently, there is a need for remote sensing research to detect, monitor, and measure urbanization and its impacts on the biosphere. Here we used MODIS and Landsat data products to (1) detect urbanization-related land cover changes, (2) investigate urbanization-related impacts on land surface phenology (LSP) across rural to urban gradients and (3) explore fractional vegetation and impervious surface area regionally across the US Great Plains and within 14 cities in this region. We used the NLCD Percent Impervious Surface Area (%ISA) and Land Cover Type (LCT) products from 2001, 2006, and 2011 for 30m classification of the peri-urban environment. We investigated the impacts of urbanization-related land cover change on urban LSP at 30m resolution using the NDVI product from Web Enabled Landsat Data (http://weld.cr.usgs.gov) with accumulated growing degree-days calculated from first-order weather stations. We fitted convex quadratic LSP models to a decade (2003-2012) of observations to yield these phenometrics: modeled peak NDVI, time (thermal and calendar) to modeled peak, duration of season (DOS), and model fit. We compared our results to NDVI from MODIS NBAR (500m) and we explored the utility of 4 μm radiance (MODIS band 23) at 1 km resolution to characterize fractional vegetation dynamics in and around urbanized areas. Across all 14 cities we found increases in urbanized area (>25 %ISA) exceeding 10% from 2001-2011. Using LSP phenometrics, we were able to detect changes from cropland to suburban LCTs. In general we found negative relationships between DOS and distance from city center. We found a distinct seasonal cycle of MIR radiance over cropland LCTs due to the spectral contrast between bare soils and green vegetation.

Life Earnings and Rural-Urban Migration

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Lucas, Robert E., Jr.

2004-01-01

This paper is a theoretical study of rural-urban migration--urbanization--as it has occurred in many low-income economies in the postwar period. This process is viewed as a transfer of labor from a traditional, land-intensive technology to a human capital-intensive technology with an unending potential for growth. The model emphasizes the role of…

Prediction of future urban growth using CA-Markov for urban sustainability planning of Banda Aceh, Indonesia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Achmad, A.; Irwansyah, M.; Ramli, I.

2018-03-01

Banda Aceh experienced rapid growth, both physically, socially, and economically, after the Tsunami that devastated it the end of December in 2004. Hence policy controls are needed to direct the pattern of urban growth to achieve sustainable development for the future. The purpose of this paper is to generate a growth model for Banda Aceh using the CA-Markov process. By knowing the changes in land use between 2005 and 2009 from the results of previous research, simulations for 2013, 2019 and 2029 using the application of Idrisi@Selva. CA-Markov models were prepared to determine the quantity of changes. The simulation results showed that, after the Tsunami, the City of Banda Aceh tended to grow towards the coast. For the control of the LUC, the Banda Aceh City government needs to prepare comprehensive and detailed maps and inventory of LUC for the city to provide basic data and information needed for monitoring and evaluation that can be done effectively and efficiently. An institution for monitoring and evaluation of the urban landscape and the LUC should be formed immediately. This institution could consist of representatives from government, academia, community leaders, the private sector and other experts. The findings from this study can be used to start the monitoring and evaluation of future urban growth. Especially for the coastal areas, the local government should immediately prepare special spatial coastal area plans to control growth in those areas and to ensure that the economic benefits from disaster mitigation and coastal protection are preserved. For the development of the city in the future, it is necessary to achieve a balance between economic development, and social welfare with environmental protection and disaster mitigation. iIt will become a big challenge to achieve sustainable development for the future.

A landscape based, systems dynamic model for assessing impacts of urban development on water quality for sustainable seagrass growth in Tampa Bay, Florida

EPA Science Inventory

We present an integrated assessment model to predict potential unintended consequences of urban development on the sustainability of seagrasses and preservation of ecosystem services, such as catchable fish, in Tampa Bay. Ecosystem services are those ecological functions and pro...

The Urban Food-Water Nexus: Modeling Water Footprints of Urban Agriculture using CityCrop

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tooke, T. R.; Lathuilliere, M. J.; Coops, N. C.; Johnson, M. S.

2014-12-01

Urban agriculture provides a potential contribution towards more sustainable food production and mitigating some of the human impacts that accompany volatility in regional and global food supply. When considering the capacity of urban landscapes to produce food products, the impact of urban water demand required for food production in cities is often neglected. Urban agricultural studies also tend to be undertaken at broad spatial scales, overlooking the heterogeneity of urban form that exerts an extreme influence on the urban energy balance. As a result, urban planning and management practitioners require, but often do not have, spatially explicit and detailed information to support informed urban agricultural policy, especially as it relates to potential conflicts with sustainability goals targeting water-use. In this research we introduce a new model, CityCrop, a hybrid evapotranspiration-plant growth model that incorporates detailed digital representations of the urban surface and biophysical impacts of the built environment and urban trees to account for the daily variations in net surface radiation. The model enables very fine-scale (sub-meter) estimates of water footprints of potential urban agricultural production. Results of the model are demonstrated for an area in the City of Vancouver, Canada and compared to aspatial model estimates, demonstrating the unique considerations and sensitivities for current and future water footprints of urban agriculture and the implications for urban water planning and policy.

Road de-icing salt as a potential constraint on urban growth in the Greater Toronto Area, Canada

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Howard, Ken W. F.; Maier, Herb

2007-04-01

North America's fifth most populated municipality — the Greater Toronto Area (GTA) — is undergoing rapid urban development with serious questions being raised regarding the long-term impacts of urban growth on the quality and quantity of ground and surface water. Degradation of groundwater quality by NaCl de-icing salt is the primary concern since there are no cost effective alternatives to NaCl de-icing salt and there is little evidence that salt loadings to the subsurface can be significantly reduced. In 2001, the issue acquired a new sense of urgency when de-icing chemicals containing inorganic chloride salts (with or without ferrocyanide de-caking agents) were designated as toxic under the Canadian Environmental Protection Act. To heighten concerns, future growth in the GTA will inevitably take place in areas where groundwater is regularly used for potable supply. Studies using groundwater flow and transport models show that significant deterioration of groundwater quality can be expected in shallow aquifers as a result of urban development with chloride concentrations approaching the drinking water quality standard of 250 mg/l. Results demonstrate that urban planning needs a fresh approach that explicitly includes groundwater protection and aquifer management in the decision-making process, clearly defines acceptable environmental performance standards and makes greater use of groundwater models to evaluate alternative urban designs.

Road de-icing salt as a potential constraint on urban growth in the Greater Toronto Area, Canada.

PubMed

Howard, Ken W F; Maier, Herb

2007-04-01

North America's fifth most populated municipality--the Greater Toronto Area (GTA)--is undergoing rapid urban development with serious questions being raised regarding the long-term impacts of urban growth on the quality and quantity of ground and surface water. Degradation of groundwater quality by NaCl de-icing salt is the primary concern since there are no cost effective alternatives to NaCl de-icing salt and there is little evidence that salt loadings to the subsurface can be significantly reduced. In 2001, the issue acquired a new sense of urgency when de-icing chemicals containing inorganic chloride salts (with or without ferrocyanide de-caking agents) were designated as toxic under the Canadian Environmental Protection Act. To heighten concerns, future growth in the GTA will inevitably take place in areas where groundwater is regularly used for potable supply. Studies using groundwater flow and transport models show that significant deterioration of groundwater quality can be expected in shallow aquifers as a result of urban development with chloride concentrations approaching the drinking water quality standard of 250 mg/l. Results demonstrate that urban planning needs a fresh approach that explicitly includes groundwater protection and aquifer management in the decision-making process, clearly defines acceptable environmental performance standards and makes greater use of groundwater models to evaluate alternative urban designs.

Urban Landscape Characterization Using Remote Sensing Data For Input into Air Quality Modeling

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Quattrochi, Dale A.; Estes, Maurice G., Jr.; Crosson, William; Khan, Maudood

2005-01-01

The urban landscape is inherently complex and this complexity is not adequately captured in air quality models that are used to assess whether urban areas are in attainment of EPA air quality standards, particularly for ground level ozone. This inadequacy of air quality models to sufficiently respond to the heterogeneous nature of the urban landscape can impact how well these models predict ozone pollutant levels over metropolitan areas and ultimately, whether cities exceed EPA ozone air quality standards. We are exploring the utility of high-resolution remote sensing data and urban growth projections as improved inputs to meteorological and air quality models focusing on the Atlanta, Georgia metropolitan area as a case study. The National Land Cover Dataset at 30m resolution is being used as the land use/land cover input and aggregated to the 4km scale for the MM5 mesoscale meteorological model and the Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ) modeling schemes. Use of these data have been found to better characterize low density/suburban development as compared with USGS 1 km land use/land cover data that have traditionally been used in modeling. Air quality prediction for future scenarios to 2030 is being facilitated by land use projections using a spatial growth model. Land use projections were developed using the 2030 Regional Transportation Plan developed by the Atlanta Regional Commission. This allows the State Environmental Protection agency to evaluate how these transportation plans will affect future air quality.

Modeling Impact of Urbanization in US Cities Using Simple Biosphere Model SiB2

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Zhang, Ping; Bounoua, Lahouari; Thome, Kurtis; Wolfe, Robert

2016-01-01

We combine Landsat- and the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS)-based products, as well as climate drivers from Phase 2 of the North American Land Data Assimilation System (NLDAS-2) in a Simple Biosphere land surface model (SiB2) to assess the impact of urbanization in continental USA (excluding Alaska and Hawaii). More than 300 cities and their surrounding suburban and rural areas are defined in this study to characterize the impact of urbanization on surface climate including surface energy, carbon budget, and water balance. These analyses reveal an uneven impact of urbanization across the continent that should inform upon policy options for improving urban growth including heat mitigation and energy use, carbon sequestration and flood prevention.

Research on monocentric model of urbanization by agent-based simulation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Xue, Ling; Yang, Kaizhong

2008-10-01

Over the past years, GIS have been widely used for modeling urbanization from a variety of perspectives such as digital terrain representation and overlay analysis using cell-based data platform. Similarly, simulation of urban dynamics has been achieved with the use of Cellular Automata. In contrast to these approaches, agent-based simulation provides a much more powerful set of tools. This allows researchers to set up a counterpart for real environmental and urban systems in computer for experimentation and scenario analysis. This Paper basically reviews the research on the economic mechanism of urbanization and an agent-based monocentric model is setup for further understanding the urbanization process and mechanism in China. We build an endogenous growth model with dynamic interactions between spatial agglomeration and urban development by using agent-based simulation. It simulates the migration decisions of two main types of agents, namely rural and urban households between rural and urban area. The model contains multiple economic interactions that are crucial in understanding urbanization and industrial process in China. These adaptive agents can adjust their supply and demand according to the market situation by a learning algorithm. The simulation result shows this agent-based urban model is able to perform the regeneration and to produce likely-to-occur projections of reality.

Quantitative Analysis of Intra Urban Growth Modeling using socio economic agents by combining cellular automata model with agent based model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Singh, V. K.; Jha, A. K.; Gupta, K.; Srivastav, S. K.

2017-12-01

Recent studies indicate that there is a significant improvement in the urban land use dynamics through modeling at finer spatial resolutions. Geo-computational models such as cellular automata and agent based model have given evident proof regarding the quantification of the urban growth pattern with urban boundary. In recent studies, socio- economic factors such as demography, education rate, household density, parcel price of the current year, distance to road, school, hospital, commercial centers and police station are considered to the major factors influencing the Land Use Land Cover (LULC) pattern of the city. These factors have unidirectional approach to land use pattern which makes it difficult to analyze the spatial aspects of model results both quantitatively and qualitatively. In this study, cellular automata model is combined with generic model known as Agent Based Model to evaluate the impact of socio economic factors on land use pattern. For this purpose, Dehradun an Indian city is selected as a case study. Socio economic factors were collected from field survey, Census of India, Directorate of economic census, Uttarakhand, India. A 3X3 simulating window is used to consider the impact on LULC. Cellular automata model results are examined for the identification of hot spot areas within the urban area and agent based model will be using logistic based regression approach where it will identify the correlation between each factor on LULC and classify the available area into low density, medium density, high density residential or commercial area. In the modeling phase, transition rule, neighborhood effect, cell change factors are used to improve the representation of built-up classes. Significant improvement is observed in the built-up classes from 84 % to 89 %. However after incorporating agent based model with cellular automata model the accuracy improved from 89 % to 94 % in 3 classes of urban i.e. low density, medium density and commercial classes. Sensitivity study of the model indicated that southern and south-west part of the city have shown improvement and small patches of growth are also observed in the north western part of the city.The study highlights the growing importance of socio economic factors and geo-computational modeling approach on changing LULC of newly growing cities of modern India.

Urbanization and Inflation: Lessons from the English Price Revolution of the Sixteenth and Seventeenth Centuries.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Goldstone, Jack A.

1984-01-01

A model of the impact of urban networks on monetary circulation is developed. The author argues that considering the effects of urbanization and occupational specialization on the velocity of money provides a fuller understanding of English inflation from 1500-1650 than traditional explanations focusing on population growth or changes in the money…

Mapping urban environmental noise: a land use regression method.

PubMed

Xie, Dan; Liu, Yi; Chen, Jining

2011-09-01

Forecasting and preventing urban noise pollution are major challenges in urban environmental management. Most existing efforts, including experiment-based models, statistical models, and noise mapping, however, have limited capacity to explain the association between urban growth and corresponding noise change. Therefore, these conventional methods can hardly forecast urban noise at a given outlook of development layout. This paper, for the first time, introduces a land use regression method, which has been applied for simulating urban air quality for a decade, to construct an urban noise model (LUNOS) in Dalian Municipality, Northwest China. The LUNOS model describes noise as a dependent variable of surrounding various land areas via a regressive function. The results suggest that a linear model performs better in fitting monitoring data, and there is no significant difference of the LUNOS's outputs when applied to different spatial scales. As the LUNOS facilitates a better understanding of the association between land use and urban environmental noise in comparison to conventional methods, it can be regarded as a promising tool for noise prediction for planning purposes and aid smart decision-making.

Urban Growth in a Fragmented Landscape: Estimating the Relationship between Landscape Pattern and Urban Land Use Change in Germany, 2000-2006

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Keller, R.

2013-12-01

One of the highest priorities in the conservation and management of biodiversity, natural resources and other vital ecosystem services is the assessment of the mechanisms that drive urban land use change. Using key landscape indicators, this study addresses why urban land increased 6 percent overall in Germany from 2000-2006. Building on regional science and economic geography research, I develop a model of landscape change that integrates remotely sensed and other geospatial data, and socioeconomic data in a spatial autoregressive model to explain the variance in urban land use change observed in German kreise (counties) over the past decade. The results reveal three key landscape mechanisms that drive urban land use change across Germany, aligning with those observed in US studies: (1) the level of fragmentation, (2) the share of designated protected areas, and (3) the share of prime soil. First, as fragmentation of once continuous habitats in the landscape increases, extensive urban growth follows. Second, designated protected areas have the perverse effect of hastening urbanization in surrounding areas. Third, greater shares of prime, productive soil experienced less urban land take over the 6 year period, an effect that is stronger in the former East Germany, where the agricultural sector remains large. The results suggest that policy makers concentrate their conservation efforts on preexisting fragmented land with high shares of protected areas in Germany to effectively stem urban land take. Given that comparative studies of land use change are vital for the scientific community to grasp the wider global process of urbanization and coincident ecological impacts, the methodology employed here is easily exportable to land cover and land use research programs in other fields and geographic areas. Key words: Urban land use change, Ecosystem services, Landscape fragmentation, Remote sensing, Spatial regression models, GermanyOLS and Spatial Autoregressive Model Results N = 439; Standard error in ( ) . *p < .1, **p < .01, ***p < .001

Conservation in metropolitan regions: assessing trends and threats of urban development and climate change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Thorne, J. H.; Santos, M. J.; Bjorkman, J.

2011-12-01

Two global challenges to successful conservation are urban expansion and climate change. Rapid urban growth threatens biodiversity and associated ecosystem services, while climate change may make currently protected areas unsuitable for species that exist within them. We examined three measures of landscape change for 8800 km2 of the San Francisco Bay metropolitan region over 80 years past and future: urban growth, protected area establishment, and natural vegetation type extents. The Bay Area is a good test bed for conservation assessment of the impacts of temporal and spatial of urban growth and land cover change. The region is geographically rather small, with over 40% of its lands already dedicated to protected park and open space lands, they are well-documented, and, the area has had extensive population growth in the past and is projected to continue to grow. The ten-county region within which our study area is a subset has grown from 1.78 million people in 1930, to 6.97 million in 2000 and is estimated to grow to 10.94 million by 2050. With such an influx of people into a small geographic area, it is imperative to both examine the past urban expansion and estimate how the future population will be accommodated into the landscape. We quantify these trends to assess conservation 'success' through time. We used historical and current landcover maps to assess trend, and a GIS-based urban modeling (UPlan) to assess future urban growth impacts in the region, under three policy scenarios- business as usual, smart growth, and urban redevelopment. Impacts are measured by the amount of open space targeted by conservation planners in the region that will be urbanized under each urban growth policy. Impacts are also measured by estimates of the energy consumption projected for each of the scenarios on household and business unit level. The 'business as usual' and 'smart growth' scenarios differed little in their impacts to targeted conservation lands, because so little open space remains to accommodate the expected population growth. Redevelopment conserved more naturally vegetated open space. The redevelopment scenario also permits the lowest increase in energy demand because buildings taken out in the process are reconfigured to higher levels of energy efficiency. However, redevelopment requires substantial increases in residential densities to confine the spatial footprint of the expected future urban growth. These three urban growth scenario footprints differ in their impact to natural vegetation and open space. To incorporate the influence of climate change on remaining natural ecosystems in this urbanizing landscape, we projected the stability of existing, mapped, vegetation types in the region under future climates by examining where projected ranges of the dominant plant species comprising each California Wildlife Habitat Relationship type will all remain together, and where they will begin to dis-associate due to biogeographic response to changing climate. This permits identification of stable and unstable zones of vegetation. The combination of climate stable, high conservation priority and likelihood of urban development provides a way to prioritize conservation land acquisitions.

Urban thermal environment and its biophysical parameters derived from satellite remote sensing imagery

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zoran, Maria A.; Savastru, Roxana S.; Savastru, Dan M.; Tautan, Marina N.; Baschir, Laurentiu V.

2013-10-01

In frame of global warming, the field of urbanization and urban thermal environment are important issues among scientists all over the world. This paper investigated the influences of urbanization on urban thermal environment as well as the relationships of thermal characteristics to other biophysical variables in Bucharest metropolitan area of Romania based on satellite remote sensing imagery Landsat TM/ETM+, time series MODIS Terra/Aqua data and IKONOS acquired during 1990 - 2012 period. Vegetation abundances and percent impervious surfaces were derived by means of linear spectral mixture model, and a method for effectively enhancing impervious surface has been developed to accurately examine the urban growth. The land surface temperature (Ts), a key parameter for urban thermal characteristics analysis, was also retrieved from thermal infrared band of Landsat TM/ETM+, from MODIS Terra/Aqua datasets. Based on these parameters, the urban growth, urban heat island effect (UHI) and the relationships of Ts to other biophysical parameters have been analyzed. Results indicated that the metropolitan area ratio of impervious surface in Bucharest increased significantly during two decades investigated period, the intensity of urban heat island and heat wave events being most significant. The correlation analyses revealed that, at the pixel-scale, Ts possessed a strong positive correlation with percent impervious surfaces and negative correlation with vegetation abundances at the regional scale, respectively. This analysis provided an integrated research scheme and the findings can be very useful for urban ecosystem modeling.

Modeling Growth in Boys' Aggressive Behavior across Elementary School: Links to Later Criminal Involvement, Conduct Disorder, and Antisocial Personality Disorder

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Schaeffer, Cindy M.; Petras, Hanno; Ialongo, Nicholas; Poduska, Jeanne; Kellam, Sheppard

2003-01-01

The present study used general growth mixture modeling to identify pathways of antisocial behavior development within an epidemiological sample of urban, primarily African American boys. Teacher-rated aggression, measured longitudinally from 1st to 7th grade, was used to define growth trajectories. Three high-risk trajectories (chronic high,…

Exploring Gains in Reading and Mathematics Achievement among Regular and Exceptional Students Using Growth Curve Modeling

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Shin, Tacksoo; Davison, Mark L.; Long, Jeffrey D.; Chan, Chi-Keung; Heistad, David

2013-01-01

Using four-wave longitudinal reading and mathematics data (4th to 7th grades) from a large urban school district, growth curve modeling was used as a tool for examining three research questions: Are achievement gaps closing in reading and mathematics? What are the associations between prior-achievement and growth across the reading and mathematics…

Urban-Water Harmony model to evaluate the urban water management.

PubMed

Ding, Yifan; Tang, Deshan; Wei, Yuhang; Yin, Sun

2014-01-01

Water resources in many urban areas are under enormous stress due to large-scale urban expansion and population explosion. The decision-makers are often faced with the dilemma of either maintaining high economic growth or protecting water resources and the environment. Simple criteria of water supply and drainage do not reflect the requirement of integrated urban water management. The Urban-Water Harmony (UWH) model is based on the concept of harmony and offers a more integrated approach to urban water management. This model calculates four dimensions, namely urban development, urban water services, water-society coordination, and water environment coordination. And the Analytic Hierarchy Process has been used to determine the indices weights. We applied the UWH model to Beijing, China for an 11-year assessment. Our findings show that, despite the severe stress inherent in rapid development and water shortage, the urban water relationship of Beijing is generally evolving in a positive way. The social-economic factors such as the water recycling technologies contribute a lot to this change. The UWH evaluation can provide a reasonable analysis approach to combine various urban and water indices to produce an integrated and comparable evaluation index. This, in turn, enables more effective water management in decision-making processes.

Quantifying Impacts of Urban Growth Potential on Army Training Capabilities

DTIC Science & Technology

2017-09-12

Capacity” ERDC/CERL TR-17-34 ii Abstract Building on previous studies of urban growth and population effects on U.S. military installations and...combat team studies . CAA has developed an iterative process that builds on Military Value Anal- ysis (MVA) models that include a set of attributes that...Methods and tools were developed to support a nationwide analysis. This study focused on installations operating training areas that were high

The dual threat of urbanisation and climate change in urbanising catchments - integrated science to meet future challenges - a case study of the Thames catchment, United Kingdom.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Miller, J.; Hutchins, M.; McGrane, S. J.; Kjeldsen, T. R.; Rowland, C.; Hagen-Zanker, A.; Rickards, N. J.; Fidal, J.; Vesuviano, G.; Hitt, O.

2016-12-01

Rapid urbanisation coupled with climate change poses a significant threat of increased flooding in urban locations around the world. In the UK there is a lack of joined up science and monitoring data to support model development and management decisions required for a rapidly growing population. Here, we present the findings from a multi-disciplinary research project entitled POLLCURB involving a combination of both monitoring and modelling approaches, including participatory citizen science, to evaluate impacts of urbanisation and climate change on flooding and water quality in the Thames basin, United Kingdom. Empirical analysis of five years of monitoring data in intensely monitored sub-catchments reveals the degree to which urban land-use impacts upon hydrological and water quality response. Analysis reveals hydrological impacts do not always follow the expected urban gradient due to intra-catchment differences in hydraulic functions. Statistical detection and attribution techniques are used to assess long-term river data, highlighting strong signals of urban growth after climate variability is accounted for. Historical land-use change mapping of the Thames basin using remote sensing shows growth in urban coverage from around 13% (1980's) to 15% (2015) and was used to develop and train a cellular automata model. Projections of a business-as-usual scenario indicates future growth of 12% by 2035. Future potential changes to flooding and water quality are assessed under urbanisation and climate scenarios for the Thames region to provide comparative and cumulative analysis of how these drivers will affect existing and new urban areas within the Thames basin. Results show the relative and cumulative impacts that both urbanisation and climate change have on basin hydrology and water quality, and highlight the improvements in modelling accuracy when utilising high-resolution data. Discussion is made of results in relation to modelling, policy, mitigation options, and implications for further scientific research.

The Atlanta Urban Heat Island Mitigation and Air Quality Modeling Project: How High-Resoution Remote Sensing Data Can Improve Air Quality Models

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Quattrochi, Dale A.; Estes, Maurice G., Jr.; Crosson, William L.; Khan, Maudood N.

2006-01-01

The Atlanta Urban Heat Island and Air Quality Project had its genesis in Project ATLANTA (ATlanta Land use Analysis: Temperature and Air quality) that began in 1996. Project ATLANTA examined how high-spatial resolution thermal remote sensing data could be used to derive better measurements of the Urban Heat Island effect over Atlanta. We have explored how these thermal remote sensing, as well as other imaged datasets, can be used to better characterize the urban landscape for improved air quality modeling over the Atlanta area. For the air quality modeling project, the National Land Cover Dataset and the local scale Landpro99 dataset at 30m spatial resolutions have been used to derive land use/land cover characteristics for input into the MM5 mesoscale meteorological model that is one of the foundations for the Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ) model to assess how these data can improve output from CMAQ. Additionally, land use changes to 2030 have been predicted using a Spatial Growth Model (SGM). SGM simulates growth around a region using population, employment and travel demand forecasts. Air quality modeling simulations were conducted using both current and future land cover. Meteorological modeling simulations indicate a 0.5 C increase in daily maximum air temperatures by 2030. Air quality modeling simulations show substantial differences in relative contributions of individual atmospheric pollutant constituents as a result of land cover change. Enhanced boundary layer mixing over the city tends to offset the increase in ozone concentration expected due to higher surface temperatures as a result of urbanization.

Climate Change and Examples of Combined HyspIRI VSWIR/TIR Advanced Level Products for Urban Ecosystems Analysis

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Quattrochi, Dale A.

2010-01-01

It is estimated that 60-80% of the world population will live in urban environments by the end of this century. This growth of the urban population will effect the climate. This slide presentation examines the use of combined HyspIRI Visible ShortWave Infrared (VSWIR)/Thermal Infrared (TIR) to observe, monitor, measure and model many of the components that comprise urban ecosystems cycles.

Urbanization in 21st century.

PubMed

Altarejos, R G

1990-01-01

Due to a combination of rapid population growth and high levels of rural-urban migration, overcrowding will be common in many cities around the world in the 21st century. Currently at 5.3 billion, the global population is expected to increase to 6 billion by the year 2000, and to 9 billion by 2025. Experts predict that urban centers will bear the brunt of the population growth. Rural areas have seen declines in the standard of living, partly due to natural disasters, civil war, and economic policies favoring urban centers. In search of jobs, better access to education, and health services, rural populations will flock to cities. But the rapid growth of cities will inevitably lead to the creation of slums, which will hamper urban development. Urban demographers predict that by the end of the century, 1/2 of the world's population will be urban, and 1/5 of these people will be concentrated in "mega cities," populations of 4 million or more. International migration will play a significant role, as people cross borders in search of opportunity. But contrary to the traditional model of urban growth, much of it will take place in developing countries. According to a 1985 study, developed nations had an urbanization level of 71%, compared to 31% in developing countries. However, experts calculate that by 2025, these levels will practically even out, with an urbanization level of 74% for developing countries and 77% for developed countries. By 2025, 25 cities will have populations of over 9 million, including Mexico City (25.8), Sao Paulo (24.0), Tokyo (20.2), Calcutta (16.5), Greater Bombay (16.0), and New York (15.8).

The water balance of the urban Salt Lake Valley: a multiple-box model validated by observations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Stwertka, C.; Strong, C.

2012-12-01

A main focus of the recently awarded National Science Foundation (NSF) EPSCoR Track-1 research project "innovative Urban Transitions and Arid-region Hydro-sustainability (iUTAH)" is to quantify the primary components of the water balance for the Wasatch region, and to evaluate their sensitivity to climate change and projected urban development. Building on the multiple-box model that we developed and validated for carbon dioxide (Strong et al 2011), mass balance equations for water in the atmosphere and surface are incorporated into the modeling framework. The model is used to determine how surface fluxes, ground-water transport, biological fluxes, and meteorological processes regulate water cycling within and around the urban Salt Lake Valley. The model is used to evaluate the hypotheses that increased water demand associated with urban growth in Salt Lake Valley will (1) elevate sensitivity to projected climate variability and (2) motivate more attentive management of urban water use and evaporative fluxes.

Intelligent path loss prediction engine design using machine learning in the urban outdoor environment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Ruichen; Lu, Jingyang; Xu, Yiran; Shen, Dan; Chen, Genshe; Pham, Khanh; Blasch, Erik

2018-05-01

Due to the progressive expansion of public mobile networks and the dramatic growth of the number of wireless users in recent years, researchers are motivated to study the radio propagation in urban environments and develop reliable and fast path loss prediction models. During last decades, different types of propagation models are developed for urban scenario path loss predictions such as the Hata model and the COST 231 model. In this paper, the path loss prediction model is thoroughly investigated using machine learning approaches. Different non-linear feature selection methods are deployed and investigated to reduce the computational complexity. The simulation results are provided to demonstratethe validity of the machine learning based path loss prediction engine, which can correctly determine the signal propagation in a wireless urban setting.

A time series of urban extent in China using DSMP/OLS nighttime light data

PubMed Central

Chen, Dongsheng; Chen, Le; Wang, Huan; Guan, Qingfeng

2018-01-01

Urban extent data play an important role in urban management and urban studies, such as monitoring the process of urbanization and changes in the spatial configuration of urban areas. Traditional methods of extracting urban-extent information are primarily based on manual investigations and classifications using remote sensing images, and these methods have such problems as large costs in labor and time and low precision. This study proposes an improved, simplified and flexible method for extracting urban extents over multiple scales and the construction of spatiotemporal models using DMSP/OLS nighttime light (NTL) for practical situations. This method eliminates the regional temporal and spatial inconsistency of thresholding NTL in large-scale and multi-temporal scenes. Using this method, we have extracted the urban extents and calculated the corresponding areas on the county, municipal and provincial scales in China from 2000 to 2012. In addition, validation with the data of reference data shows that the overall accuracy (OA), Kappa and F1 Scores were 0.996, 0.793, and 0.782, respectively. We increased the spatial resolution of the urban extent to 500 m (approximately four times finer than the results of previous studies). Based on the urban extent dataset proposed above, we analyzed changes in urban extents over time and observed that urban sprawl has grown in all of the counties of China. We also identified three patterns of urban sprawl: Early Urban Growth, Constant Urban Growth and Recent Urban Growth. In addition, these trends of urban sprawl are consistent with the western, eastern and central cities of China, respectively, in terms of their spatial distribution, socioeconomic characteristics and historical background. Additionally, the urban extents display the spatial configurations of urban areas intuitively. The proposed urban extent dataset is available for download and can provide reference data and support for future studies of urbanization and urban planning. PMID:29795685

Assessments of urban growth in the Tampa Bay watershed using remote sensing data

USGS Publications Warehouse

Xian, G.; Crane, M.

2005-01-01

Urban development has expanded rapidly in the Tampa Bay area of west-central Florida over the past century. A major effect associated with this population trend is transformation of the landscape from natural cover types to increasingly impervious urban land. This research utilizes an innovative approach for mapping urban extent and its changes through determining impervious surfaces from Landsat satellite remote sensing data. By 2002, areas with subpixel impervious surface greater than 10% accounted for approximately 1800 km2, or 27 percent of the total watershed area. The impervious surface area increases approximately three-fold from 1991 to 2002. The resulting imperviousness data are used with a defined suite of geospatial data sets to simulate historical urban development and predict future urban and suburban extent, density, and growth patterns using SLEUTH model. Also examined is the increasingly important influence that urbanization and its associated imperviousness extent have on the individual drainage basins of the Tampa Bay watershed.

Analyzing urban ecosystem variation in the City of Dongguan: A stepwise cluster modeling approach.

PubMed

Sun, J; Li, Y P; Gao, P P; Suo, C; Xia, B C

2018-06-13

In this study, a stepwise cluster modeling approach (SCMA) is developed for analyzing urban ecosystem variation via Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI). NDVI is an indicator of vegetation growth and coverage and useful in reflecting urban ecosystem. SCMA is established on a cluster tree that can characterize the complex relationship between independent and dependent variables. SCMA is applied to the City of Dongguan for simulating the urban NDVI and identifying associated drivers of human activity, topography and meteorology without specific functions. Results show that SCMA performances better than conventional statistical methods, illustrating the ability of SCMA in capturing the complex and nonlinear features of urban ecosystem. Results disclose that human activities play negative effects on NDVI due to the destruction of green space for pursuing more space for buildings. NDVI reduces gradually from the south part to the north part of Dongguan due to increased gross domestic product and population density, indicating that the ecosystem in Dongguan is better in the south part. NDVI in the northeast part (dominated by agriculture) is sensitive to the growth of economy and population. More attention should be paid to this part for sustainable development, such as increasing afforestation, planting grass and constructing parks. Precipitation has a positive effect on NDVI due to the promotion of soil moisture that is beneficial to plants' growth. Awareness of these complexities is helpful for sustainable development of urban ecosystem. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Quantifying urban growth patterns in Hanoi using landscape expansion modes and time series spatial metrics.

PubMed

Nong, Duong H; Lepczyk, Christopher A; Miura, Tomoaki; Fox, Jefferson M

2018-01-01

Urbanization has been driven by various social, economic, and political factors around the world for centuries. Because urbanization continues unabated in many places, it is crucial to understand patterns of urbanization and their potential ecological and environmental impacts. Given this need, the objectives of our study were to quantify urban growth rates, growth modes, and resultant changes in the landscape pattern of urbanization in Hanoi, Vietnam from 1993 to 2010 and to evaluate the extent to which the process of urban growth in Hanoi conformed to the diffusion-coalescence theory. We analyzed the spatiotemporal patterns and dynamics of the built-up land in Hanoi using landscape expansion modes, spatial metrics, and a gradient approach. Urbanization was most pronounced in the periods of 2001-2006 and 2006-2010 at a distance of 10 to 35 km around the urban center. Over the 17 year period urban expansion in Hanoi was dominated by infilling and edge expansion growth modes. Our findings support the diffusion-coalescence theory of urbanization. The shift of the urban growth areas over time and the dynamic nature of the spatial metrics revealed important information about our understanding of the urban growth process and cycle. Furthermore, our findings can be used to evaluate urban planning policies and aid in urbanization issues in rapidly urbanizing countries.

Hispanic Population Growth and Rural Income Inequality

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Parrado, Emilio A.; Kandel, William A.

2010-01-01

We analyze the relationship between Hispanic population growth and changes in U.S. rural income inequality from 1990 through 2000. Applying comparative approaches used for urban areas we disentangle Hispanic population growth's contribution to inequality by comparing and statistically modeling changes in the family income Gini coefficient across…

Urban Growth Modeling Using Anfis Algorithm: a Case Study for Sanandaj City, Iran

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mohammady, S.; Delavar, M. R.; Pijanowski, B. C.

2013-10-01

Global urban population has increased from 22.9% in 1985 to 47% in 2010. In spite of the tendency for urbanization worldwide, only about 2% of Earth's land surface is covered by cities. Urban population in Iran is increasing due to social and economic development. The proportion of the population living in Iran urban areas has consistently increased from about 31% in 1956 to 68.4% in 2006. Migration of the rural population to cities and population growth in cities have caused many problems, such as irregular growth of cities, improper placement of infrastructure and urban services. Air and environmental pollution, resource degradation and insufficient infrastructure, are the results of poor urban planning that have negative impact on the environment or livelihoods of people living in cities. These issues are a consequence of improper land use planning. Models have been employed to assist in our understanding of relations between land use and its subsequent effects. Different models for urban growth modeling have been developed. Methods from computational intelligence have made great contributions in all specific application domains and hybrid algorithms research as a part of them has become a big trend in computational intelligence. Artificial Neural Network (ANN) has the capability to deal with imprecise data by training, while fuzzy logic can deal with the uncertainty of human cognition. ANN learns from scratch by adjusting the interconnections between layers and Fuzzy Inference Systems (FIS) is a popular computing framework based on the concept of fuzzy set theory, fuzzy logic, and fuzzy reasoning. Fuzzy logic has many advantages such as flexibility and at the other sides, one of the biggest problems in fuzzy logic application is the location and shape and of membership function for each fuzzy variable which is generally being solved by trial and error method. In contrast, numerical computation and learning are the advantages of neural network, however, it is not easy to obtain the optimal structure. Since, in this type of fuzzy logic, neural network has been used, therefore, by using a learning algorithm the parameters have been changed until reach the optimal solution. Adaptive Neuro Fuzzy Inference System (ANFIS) computing due to ability to understand nonlinear structures is a popular framework for solving complex problems. Fusion of ANN and FIS has attracted the growing interest of researchers in various scientific and engineering areas due to the growing need of adaptive intelligent systems to solve the real world problems. In this research, an ANFIS method has been developed for modeling land use change and interpreting the relationship between the drivers of urbanization. Our study area is the city of Sanandaj located in the west of Iran. Landsat images acquired in 2000 and 2006 have been used for model development and calibration. The parameters used in this study include distance to major roads, distance to residential regions, elevation, number of urban pixels in a 3 by 3 neighborhood and distance to green space. Percent Correct Match (PCM) and Figure of Merit were used to assess model goodness of fit were 93.77% and 64.30%, respectively.

Using Multivariate Adaptive Regression Spline and Artificial Neural Network to Simulate Urbanization in Mumbai, India

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ahmadlou, M.; Delavar, M. R.; Tayyebi, A.; Shafizadeh-Moghadam, H.

2015-12-01

Land use change (LUC) models used for modelling urban growth are different in structure and performance. Local models divide the data into separate subsets and fit distinct models on each of the subsets. Non-parametric models are data driven and usually do not have a fixed model structure or model structure is unknown before the modelling process. On the other hand, global models perform modelling using all the available data. In addition, parametric models have a fixed structure before the modelling process and they are model driven. Since few studies have compared local non-parametric models with global parametric models, this study compares a local non-parametric model called multivariate adaptive regression spline (MARS), and a global parametric model called artificial neural network (ANN) to simulate urbanization in Mumbai, India. Both models determine the relationship between a dependent variable and multiple independent variables. We used receiver operating characteristic (ROC) to compare the power of the both models for simulating urbanization. Landsat images of 1991 (TM) and 2010 (ETM+) were used for modelling the urbanization process. The drivers considered for urbanization in this area were distance to urban areas, urban density, distance to roads, distance to water, distance to forest, distance to railway, distance to central business district, number of agricultural cells in a 7 by 7 neighbourhoods, and slope in 1991. The results showed that the area under the ROC curve for MARS and ANN was 94.77% and 95.36%, respectively. Thus, ANN performed slightly better than MARS to simulate urban areas in Mumbai, India.

Modeling complexity in engineered infrastructure system: Water distribution network as an example

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zeng, Fang; Li, Xiang; Li, Ke

2017-02-01

The complex topology and adaptive behavior of infrastructure systems are driven by both self-organization of the demand and rigid engineering solutions. Therefore, engineering complex systems requires a method balancing holism and reductionism. To model the growth of water distribution networks, a complex network model was developed following the combination of local optimization rules and engineering considerations. The demand node generation is dynamic and follows the scaling law of urban growth. The proposed model can generate a water distribution network (WDN) similar to reported real-world WDNs on some structural properties. Comparison with different modeling approaches indicates that a realistic demand node distribution and co-evolvement of demand node and network are important for the simulation of real complex networks. The simulation results indicate that the efficiency of water distribution networks is exponentially affected by the urban growth pattern. On the contrary, the improvement of efficiency by engineering optimization is limited and relatively insignificant. The redundancy and robustness, on another aspect, can be significantly improved through engineering methods.

A Century of the Evolution of the Urban Area in Shenyang, China

PubMed Central

Liu, Miao; Xu, Yanyan; Hu, Yuanman; Li, Chunlin; Sun, Fengyun; Chen, Tan

2014-01-01

Analyzing spatiotemporal characteristics of the historical urbanization process is essential in understanding the dynamics of urbanization and scientifically planned urban development. Based on historical urban area maps and remote sensing images, this study examined the urban expansion of Shenyang from 1910 to 2010 using area statistics, typology identification, and landscape metrics approaches. The population and gross domestic product were analyzed as driving factors. The results showed that the urban area of Shenyang increased 43.39-fold during the study period and that the growth rate has accelerated since the 1980s. Three urban growth types were distinguished: infilling, edge-expansion, and spontaneous growth. Edge-expansion was the primary growth type. Infilling growth became the main growth type in the periods 1946–70, 1988–97, and 2004–10. Spontaneous growth was concentrated in the period of 1997 to 2000. The results of landscape metrics indicate that the urban landscape of Shenyang originally was highly aggregated, but has become increasingly fragmented. The urban fringe area was the traditional hot zone of urbanization. Shenyang was mainly located north of the Hun River before 1980; however, the south side of the river has been the hot zone of urbanization since the 1980s. The increase of urban area strongly correlated with the growth of GDP and population. Over a long time scale, the urbanization process has been affected by major historical events. PMID:24893167

Quantifying urban growth patterns in Hanoi using landscape expansion modes and time series spatial metrics

PubMed Central

Lepczyk, Christopher A.; Miura, Tomoaki; Fox, Jefferson M.

2018-01-01

Urbanization has been driven by various social, economic, and political factors around the world for centuries. Because urbanization continues unabated in many places, it is crucial to understand patterns of urbanization and their potential ecological and environmental impacts. Given this need, the objectives of our study were to quantify urban growth rates, growth modes, and resultant changes in the landscape pattern of urbanization in Hanoi, Vietnam from 1993 to 2010 and to evaluate the extent to which the process of urban growth in Hanoi conformed to the diffusion-coalescence theory. We analyzed the spatiotemporal patterns and dynamics of the built-up land in Hanoi using landscape expansion modes, spatial metrics, and a gradient approach. Urbanization was most pronounced in the periods of 2001–2006 and 2006–2010 at a distance of 10 to 35 km around the urban center. Over the 17 year period urban expansion in Hanoi was dominated by infilling and edge expansion growth modes. Our findings support the diffusion-coalescence theory of urbanization. The shift of the urban growth areas over time and the dynamic nature of the spatial metrics revealed important information about our understanding of the urban growth process and cycle. Furthermore, our findings can be used to evaluate urban planning policies and aid in urbanization issues in rapidly urbanizing countries. PMID:29734346

Empirical research on coordination evaluation and sustainable development mechanism of regional logistics and new-type urbanization: a panel data analysis from 2000 to 2015 for Liaoning Province in China.

PubMed

Sun, Qiang

2017-06-01

As the largest developing country in the world, China has witnessed fast-paced urbanization over the past three decades with rapid economic growth. In fact, urbanization has been not only shown to promote economic growth and improve the livelihood of people but also can increase demands of regional logistics. Therefore, a better understanding of the relationship between urbanization and regional logistics is important for China's future sustainable development. The development of urban residential area and heterogeneous, modern society as well regional logistics are running two abreast. The regional logistics can promote the development of new-type urbanization jointly by promoting industrial concentration and logistics demand, enhancing the residents' quality of life and improving the infrastructure and logistics technology. In this paper, the index system and evaluation model for evaluating the development of regional logistics and the new-type urbanization are constructed. Further, the econometric analysis is utilized such as correlation analysis, co-integration test, and error correction model to explore relationships of the new-type urbanization development and regional logistics development in Liaoning Province. The results showed that there was a long-term stable equilibrium relationship between the new-type urbanization and regional logistics. The findings have important implications for Chinese policymakers that on the path towards a sustainable urbanization and regional reverse, this must be taken into consideration. The paper concludes providing some strategies that might be helpful to the policymakers in formulating development policies for sustainable urbanization.

Defying Expectations: Vocabulary Growth Trajectories of High Performing Language Minority Students

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Hwang, Jin Kyoung; Lawrence, Joshua Fahey; Snow, Catherine E.

2017-01-01

We investigated general vocabulary and academic vocabulary growth trajectories of adolescent language minority students using an individual growth modeling approach. Our analytical sample included 3161 sixth- to eighth-grade students from an urban school district in California. The language minority students in our sample were classified as…

Street Level Hydrology: An Urban Application of the WRF-Hydro Framework in Denver, Colorado

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Read, L.; Hogue, T. S.; Salas, F. R.; Gochis, D.

2015-12-01

Urban flood modeling at the watershed scale carries unique challenges in routing complexity, data resolution, social and political issues, and land surface - infrastructure interactions. The ability to accurately trace and predict the flow of water through the urban landscape enables better emergency response management, floodplain mapping, and data for future urban infrastructure planning and development. These services are of growing importance as urban population is expected to continue increasing by 1.84% per year for the next 25 years, increasing the vulnerability of urban regions to damages and loss of life from floods. Although a range of watershed-scale models have been applied in specific urban areas to examine these issues, there is a trend towards national scale hydrologic modeling enabled by supercomputing resources to understand larger system-wide hydrologic impacts and feedbacks. As such it is important to address how urban landscapes can be represented in large scale modeling processes. The current project investigates how coupling terrain and infrastructure routing can improve flow prediction and flooding events over the urban landscape. We utilize the WRF-Hydro modeling framework and a high-resolution terrain routing grid with the goal of compiling standard data needs necessary for fine scale urban modeling and dynamic flood forecasting in the urban setting. The city of Denver is selected as a case study, as it has experienced several large flooding events in the last five years and has an urban annual population growth rate of 1.5%, one of the highest in the U.S. Our work highlights the hydro-informatic challenges associated with linking channel networks and drainage infrastructure in an urban area using the WRF-Hydro modeling framework and high resolution urban models for short-term flood prediction.

Changing retail business models and the impact on CO2 emissions from transport : e-commerce deliveries in urban and rural areas.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2014-10-01

While researchers have found relationships between passenger vehicle travel and smart growth development patterns, : similar relationships have not been extensively studied between urban form and goods movement trip making patterns. In : rural areas,...

IMPACT OF URBANIZATION ON THE HYDROLOGY OF THE POCONO CREEK WATERSHED: A MODEL STUDY

EPA Science Inventory

The Pocono Creek watershed located in Monroe County, PA, is threatened by high population growth and urbanization. Of concern specifically is the potential impact of future developments in the watershed on the reduction of base flow and the consequent risk of degradation of wild ...

CO2 dispersion modelling over Paris region within the CO2-MEGAPARIS project

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lac, C.; Donnelly, R. P.; Masson, V.; Pal, S.; Donier, S.; Queguiner, S.; Tanguy, G.; Ammoura, L.; Xueref-Remy, I.

2012-10-01

Accurate simulation of the spatial and temporal variability of tracer mixing ratios over urban areas is challenging, but essential in order to utilize CO2 measurements in an atmospheric inverse framework to better estimate regional CO2 fluxes. This study investigates the ability of a high-resolution model to simulate meteorological and CO2 fields around Paris agglomeration, during the March field campaign of the CO2-MEGAPARIS project. The mesoscale atmospheric model Meso-NH, running at 2 km horizontal resolution, is coupled with the Town-Energy Balance (TEB) urban canopy scheme and with the Interactions between Soil, Biosphere and Atmosphere CO2-reactive (ISBA-A-gs) surface scheme, allowing a full interaction of CO2 between the surface and the atmosphere. Statistical scores show a good representation of the Urban Heat Island (UHI) and urban-rural contrasts. Boundary layer heights (BLH) at urban, sub-urban and rural sites are well captured, especially the onset time of the BLH increase and its growth rate in the morning, that are essential for tall tower CO2 observatories. Only nocturnal BLH at sub-urban sites are slightly underestimated a few nights, with a bias less than 50 m. At Eiffel tower, the observed spikes of CO2 maxima occur every morning exactly at the time at which the Atmospheric Boundary Layer (ABL) growth reaches the measurement height. The timing of the CO2 cycle is well captured by the model, with only small biases on CO2 concentrations, mainly linked to the misrepresentation of anthropogenic emissions, as the Eiffel site is at the heart of trafic emission sources. At sub-urban ground stations, CO2 measurements exhibit maxima at the beginning and at the end of each night, when the ABL is fully contracted, with a very strong spatio-temporal variability. The CO2 cycle at these sites is generally well reproduced by the model, even if some biases on the nocturnal maxima appear in the Paris plume parly due to small errors on the vertical transport, or in the vicinity of airports due to small errors on the horizontal transport (wind direction). A sensitivity test without urban parameterisation removes UHI and underpredicts nighttime BLH over urban and sub-urban sites, leading to large overestimation of nocturnal CO2 concentration at the sub-urban sites. The agreement of daytime and nighttime BLH and CO2 predictions of the reference simulation over Paris agglomeration demonstrates the potential of using the meso-scale system on urban and sub-urban area in the context of inverse modelling.

The Power of Micro Urban Structures, Theory of EEPGC - the Micro Urban Energy Distribution Model as a Planning Tool for Sustainable City Development

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tkáč, Štefan

2015-11-01

To achieve the smart growth and equitable development in the region, urban planners should consider also lateral energies represented by the energy urban models like further proposed EEPGC focused on energy distribution via connections among micro-urban structures, their onsite renewable resources and the perception of micro-urban structures as decentralized energy carriers based on pre industrialized era. These structures are still variously bound when part of greater patterns. After the industrial revolution the main traded goods became energy in its various forms. The EEPGC is focused on sustainable energy transportation distances between the villages and the city, described by the virtual "energy circles". This more human scale urbanization, boost the economy in micro-urban areas, rising along with clean energy available in situ that surely gives a different perspective to human quality of life in contrast to overcrowded multicultural mega-urban structures facing generations of problems and struggling to survive as a whole.

A decision support tool for sustainable planning of urban water systems: presenting the Dynamic Urban Water Simulation Model.

PubMed

Willuweit, Lars; O'Sullivan, John J

2013-12-15

Population growth, urbanisation and climate change represent significant pressures on urban water resources, requiring water managers to consider a wider array of management options that account for economic, social and environmental factors. The Dynamic Urban Water Simulation Model (DUWSiM) developed in this study links urban water balance concepts with the land use dynamics model MOLAND and the climate model LARS-WG, providing a platform for long term planning of urban water supply and water demand by analysing the effects of urbanisation scenarios and climatic changes on the urban water cycle. Based on potential urbanisation scenarios and their effects on a city's water cycle, DUWSiM provides the functionality for assessing the feasibility of centralised and decentralised water supply and water demand management options based on forecasted water demand, stormwater and wastewater generation, whole life cost and energy and potential for water recycling. DUWSiM has been tested using data from Dublin, the capital of Ireland, and it has been shown that the model is able to satisfactorily predict water demand and stormwater runoff. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Reserch on Urban Spatial Expansion Model Based on Multi-Object Gray Decision-Making and Ca: a Case Study of Pidu District, Chengdu City

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liu, Z.; Li, Y.

2018-04-01

This paper from the perspective of the Neighbor cellular space, Proposed a new urban space expansion model based on a new multi-objective gray decision and CA. The model solved the traditional cellular automata conversion rules is difficult to meet the needs of the inner space-time analysis of urban changes and to overcome the problem of uncertainty in the combination of urban drivers and urban cellular automata. At the same time, the study takes Pidu District as a research area and carries out urban spatial simulation prediction and analysis, and draws the following conclusions: (1) The design idea of the urban spatial expansion model proposed in this paper is that the urban driving factor and the neighborhood function are tightly coupled by the multi-objective grey decision method based on geographical conditions. The simulation results show that the simulation error of urban spatial expansion is less than 5.27 %. The Kappa coefficient is 0.84. It shows that the model can better capture the inner transformation mechanism of the city. (2) We made a simulation prediction for Pidu District of Chengdu by discussing Pidu District of Chengdu as a system instance.In this way, we analyzed the urban growth tendency of this area.presenting a contiguous increasing mode, which is called "urban intensive development". This expansion mode accorded with sustainable development theory and the ecological urbanization design theory.

Climate change accelerates growth of urban trees in metropolises worldwide.

PubMed

Pretzsch, Hans; Biber, Peter; Uhl, Enno; Dahlhausen, Jens; Schütze, Gerhard; Perkins, Diana; Rötzer, Thomas; Caldentey, Juan; Koike, Takayoshi; Con, Tran van; Chavanne, Aurélia; Toit, Ben du; Foster, Keith; Lefer, Barry

2017-11-13

Despite the importance of urban trees, their growth reaction to climate change and to the urban heat island effect has not yet been investigated with an international scope. While we are well informed about forest growth under recent conditions, it is unclear if this knowledge can be simply transferred to urban environments. Based on tree ring analyses in ten metropolises worldwide, we show that, in general, urban trees have undergone accelerated growth since the 1960s. In addition, urban trees tend to grow more quickly than their counterparts in the rural surroundings. However, our analysis shows that climate change seems to enhance the growth of rural trees more than that of urban trees. The benefits of growing in an urban environment seem to outweigh known negative effects, however, accelerated growth may also mean more rapid ageing and shortened lifetime. Thus, city planners should adapt to the changed dynamics in order to secure the ecosystem services provided by urban trees.

Land-Use Analysis and Simulated Effects of Land-Use Change and Aggregate Mining on Groundwater Flow in the South Platte River Valley, Brighton to Fort Lupton, Colorado

USGS Publications Warehouse

Arnold, L.R.; Mladinich, C.S.; Langer, W.H.; Daniels, J.S.

2010-01-01

Land use in the South Platte River valley between the cities of Brighton and Fort Lupton, Colo., is undergoing change as urban areas expand, and the extent of aggregate mining in the Brighton-Fort Lupton area is increasing as the demand for aggregate grows in response to urban development. To improve understanding of land-use change and the potential effects of land-use change and aggregate mining on groundwater flow, the U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the cities of Brighton and Fort Lupton, analyzed socioeconomic and land-use trends and constructed a numerical groundwater flow model of the South Platte alluvial aquifer in the Brighton-Fort Lupton area. The numerical groundwater flow model was used to simulate (1) steady-state hydrologic effects of predicted land-use conditions in 2020 and 2040, (2) transient cumulative hydrologic effects of the potential extent of reclaimed aggregate pits in 2020 and 2040, (3) transient hydrologic effects of actively dewatered aggregate pits, and (4) effects of different hypothetical pit spacings and configurations on groundwater levels. The SLEUTH (Slope, Land cover, Exclusion, Urbanization, Transportation, and Hillshade) urban-growth modeling program was used to predict the extent of urban area in 2020 and 2040. Wetlands in the Brighton-Fort Lupton area were mapped as part of the study, and mapped wetland locations and areas of riparian herbaceous vegetation previously mapped by the Colorado Division of Wildlife were compared to simulation results to indicate areas where wetlands or riparian herbaceous vegetation might be affected by groundwater-level changes resulting from land-use change or aggregate mining. Analysis of land-use conditions in 1957, 1977, and 2000 indicated that the general distribution of irrigated land and non-irrigated land remained similar from 1957 to 2000, but both land uses decreased as urban area increased. Urban area increased about 165 percent from 1957 to 1977 and about 56 percent from 1977 to 2000 with most urban growth occurring east of Brighton and Fort Lupton and along major transportation corridors. Land-use conditions in 2020 and 2040 predicted by the SLEUTH modeling program indicated urban growth will continue to develop primarily east of Brighton and Fort Lupton and along major transportation routes, but substantial urban growth also is predicted south and west of Brighton. Steady-state simulations of the hydrologic effects of predicted land-use conditions in 2020 and 2040 indicated groundwater levels declined less than 2 feet relative to simulated groundwater levels in 2000. Groundwater levels declined most where irrigated land was converted to urban area and least where non-irrigated land was converted to urban area. Simulated groundwater-level declines resulting from land-use conditions in 2020 and 2040 are not predicted to substantially affect wetlands or riparian herbaceous vegetation in the study area because the declines are small and wetlands and riparian herbaceous vegetation generally are not located where simulated declines occur. See Report PDF for unabridged abstract.

Integrative assessment of climate change for fast-growing urban areas: Measurement and recommendations for future research

PubMed Central

Haase, Dagmar; Volk, Martin

2017-01-01

Over the 20th century, urbanization has substantially shaped the surface of Earth. With population rapidly shifting from rural locations towards the cities, urban areas have dramatically expanded on a global scale and represent crystallization points of social, cultural and economic assets and activities. This trend is estimated to persist for the next decades, and particularly the developing countries are expected to face rapid urban growth. The management of this growth will require good governance strategies and planning. By threatening the livelihoods, assets and health as foundations of human activities, another major global change contributor, climate change, became an equally important concern of stakeholders. Based on the climate trends observed over the 20th century, and a spatially explicit model of urbanization, this paper investigates the impacts of climate change in relation to different stages of development of urban areas, thus evolving a more integrated perspective on both processes. As a result, an integrative measure of climate change trends and impacts is proposed and estimated for urban areas worldwide. We show that those areas facing major urban growth are to a large extent also hotspots of climate change. Since most of these hotspots are located in the Global South, we emphasize the need for stakeholders to co-manage both drivers of global change. The presented integrative perspective is seen as a starting point to foster such co-management, and furthermore as a means to facilitate communication and knowledge exchange on climate change impacts. PMID:29232695

Integrative assessment of climate change for fast-growing urban areas: Measurement and recommendations for future research.

PubMed

Scheuer, Sebastian; Haase, Dagmar; Volk, Martin

2017-01-01

Over the 20th century, urbanization has substantially shaped the surface of Earth. With population rapidly shifting from rural locations towards the cities, urban areas have dramatically expanded on a global scale and represent crystallization points of social, cultural and economic assets and activities. This trend is estimated to persist for the next decades, and particularly the developing countries are expected to face rapid urban growth. The management of this growth will require good governance strategies and planning. By threatening the livelihoods, assets and health as foundations of human activities, another major global change contributor, climate change, became an equally important concern of stakeholders. Based on the climate trends observed over the 20th century, and a spatially explicit model of urbanization, this paper investigates the impacts of climate change in relation to different stages of development of urban areas, thus evolving a more integrated perspective on both processes. As a result, an integrative measure of climate change trends and impacts is proposed and estimated for urban areas worldwide. We show that those areas facing major urban growth are to a large extent also hotspots of climate change. Since most of these hotspots are located in the Global South, we emphasize the need for stakeholders to co-manage both drivers of global change. The presented integrative perspective is seen as a starting point to foster such co-management, and furthermore as a means to facilitate communication and knowledge exchange on climate change impacts.

Urban infrastructure and natural resource flows: evidence from Cape Town.

PubMed

Hyman, Katherine

2013-09-01

The current economic development trajectory is fundamentally unsustainable. However, decoupling economic growth from excessive natural resource consumption can be adopted as a means to deviate from this current trajectory. Decoupling enables economic growth and human development through non-material growth, without the environmental and social casualties of the incumbent model. Cities are the current and future context for socio development as well as a significant part of the cause and solution to sustainability challenges. Cities account for the majority of production and consumption activities leading to environmental degradation, and they are also the primary location for economic, institutional, and human capital. Innovative responses to global challenges generally emerge during the interaction between these kinds of capital. This paper presents the case of three of Cape Town's resource flows namely; electricity, water and solid waste, as mediated by networked urban infrastructure, to demonstrate the possibility of urban scale decoupling. Conclusions indicate that while decoupling can occur at the city scale, it is unlikely to be sufficient for the realization of sustainable urban development. Purposive interventions are therefore critical for successful, sustainable urban transitions. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Effects of sea-level rise and anthropogenic development on priority bird species habitats in coastal Georgia, USA.

PubMed

Brittain, Ross A; Craft, Christopher B

2012-02-01

We modeled changes in area of five habitats, tidal-freshwater forest, salt marsh, maritime shrub-scrub (shrub), maritime broadleaf forest (oak) and maritime narrowleaf (pine) forest, in coastal Georgia, USA, to evaluate how simultaneous habitat loss due to predicted changes in sea level rise (SLR) and urban development will affect priority bird species of the south Atlantic coastal plain by 2100. Development rates, based on regional growth plans, were modeled at 1% and 2.5% annual urban growth, while SLR rates, based on the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change's A1B mean and maximum scenarios, were modeled at 52 cm and 82 cm, respectively. SLR most greatly affected the shrub habitat with predicted losses of 35-43%. Salt marsh and tidal forest also were predicted to lose considerable area to SLR (20-45 and 23-35%, respectively), whereas oak and pine forests had lesser impact from SLR, 18-22% and 11-15%, respectively. Urban development resulted in losses of considerable pine (48-49%) and oak (53-55%) habitat with lesser loss of shrub habitat (21-24%). Under maximum SLR and urban growth, shrub habitat may lose up to 59-64% compared to as much as 62-65% pine forest and 74-75% oak forest. Conservation efforts should focus on protection of shrub habitat because of its small area relative to other terrestrial habitats and use by Painted Buntings (Passerina ciris), a Partners In Flight (PIF) extremely high priority species. Tidal forests also deserve protection because they are a likely refuge for forest species, such as Northern Parula and Acadian Flycatcher, with the decline of oak and pine forests due to urban development.

A smart growth evaluation model based on data envelopment analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, Xiaokun; Guan, Yongyi

2018-04-01

With the rapid spread of urbanization, smart growth (SG) has attracted plenty of attention from all over the world. In this paper, by the establishment of index system for smart growth, data envelopment analysis (DEA) model was suggested to evaluate the SG level of the current growth situation in cities. In order to further improve the information of both radial direction and non-radial detection, we introduced the non-Archimedean infinitesimal to form C2GS2 control model. Finally, we evaluated the SG level in Canberra and identified a series of problems, which can verify the applicability of the model and provide us more improvement information.

Land Cover Change and Remote Sensing in the Classroom: An Exercise to Study Urban Growth

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Delahunty, Tina; Lewis-Gonzales, Sarah; Phelps, Jack; Sawicki, Ben; Roberts, Charles; Carpenter, Penny

2012-01-01

The processes and implications of urban growth are studied in a variety of disciplines as urban growth affects both the physical and human landscape. Remote sensing methods provide ways to visualize and mathematically represent urban growth; and resultant land cover change data enable both quantitative and qualitative analysis. This article helps…

Downwind effects on an arid dunefield from an evolving urbanised area

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hernández-Calvento, L.; Jackson, D. W. T.; Medina, R.; Hernández-Cordero, A. I.; Cruz, N.; Requejo, S.

2014-12-01

The impacts of urbanised zones on aeolian dynamics are little understood, particularly within arid areas. This study examines the large-scale influence of a growing tourist resort in Gran Canaria Island, Spain, on the sedimentary dynamics of an arid dunefield. Direct downwind effects from the urban area on the dune field surface are modelled for pre-growth and post-growth phases of the urban development. The geomorphological changes observed in the area stretching from the shoreline to the inland transgressive dune field were documented through aerial photographic and LiDAR evidence. Impacts of the urban growth on airflow, as well as those induced by tourists in the upper beach zone (de-vegetation), are examined through analysis of topographic changes. These impacts on the system are shown to have been synergistic in driving the development of a composite dune ridge, formed by the coalescence of smaller dunes into a distinctive aeolian accumulation ridge.

Integrated models for solid waste management in tourism regions: Langkawi Island, Malaysia.

PubMed

Shamshiry, Elmira; Nadi, Behzad; Mokhtar, Mazlin Bin; Komoo, Ibrahim; Hashim, Halimaton Saadiah; Yahaya, Nadzri

2011-01-01

The population growth, changing consumption patterns, and rapid urbanization contribute significantly to the growing volumes of solid waste that are generated in urban settings. As the rate of urbanization increases, demand on the services of solid waste management increases. The rapid urban growth in Langkawi Island, Malaysia, combined with the increasing rates of solid waste production has provided evidence that the traditional solid waste management practices, particularly the methods of waste collection and disposal, are inefficient and quite nonsustainable. Accordingly, municipal managers and planners in Langkawi need to look for and adopt a model for solid waste management that emphasizes an efficient and sustainable management of solid wastes in Langkawi Island. This study presents the current practices of solid waste management in Langkawi Island, describes the composition of the solid waste generated in that area, and presents views of local residents and tourist on issues related to solid waste management like the aesthetic value of the island environment. The most important issue of this paper is that it is the first time that integrated solid waste management is investigated in the Langkawi Island.

Integrated Models for Solid Waste Management in Tourism Regions: Langkawi Island, Malaysia

PubMed Central

Shamshiry, Elmira; Nadi, Behzad; Bin Mokhtar, Mazlin; Komoo, Ibrahim; Saadiah Hashim, Halimaton; Yahaya, Nadzri

2011-01-01

The population growth, changing consumption patterns, and rapid urbanization contribute significantly to the growing volumes of solid waste that are generated in urban settings. As the rate of urbanization increases, demand on the services of solid waste management increases. The rapid urban growth in Langkawi Island, Malaysia, combined with the increasing rates of solid waste production has provided evidence that the traditional solid waste management practices, particularly the methods of waste collection and disposal, are inefficient and quite nonsustainable. Accordingly, municipal managers and planners in Langkawi need to look for and adopt a model for solid waste management that emphasizes an efficient and sustainable management of solid wastes in Langkawi Island. This study presents the current practices of solid waste management in Langkawi Island, describes the composition of the solid waste generated in that area, and presents views of local residents and tourist on issues related to solid waste management like the aesthetic value of the island environment. The most important issue of this paper is that it is the first time that integrated solid waste management is investigated in the Langkawi Island. PMID:21904559

[Urban dynamics in the decade of the 1980s: concentration of in-migration, spatial segregation and social exclusion].

PubMed

Contreras, A M

1991-01-01

The effects of 2 basic socioeconomic processes of the 1980s on urban dynamics in the Dominican Republic are described. The 2 processes were the restructuring of the national productive apparatus following anew model of accumulation that stressed external markets, and the urban political economy of the years 1986-90, in which priority was given to public investment in construction as an activity favoring economic growth and employment. The interest in urban remodeling and transit renovation implied neglect of other basic sectors including education, agriculture, energy,and health. A series of fiscal measures was necessary to finance the investment program, and the inflation resulting from the investment program had significant effects on real income of the population. The new economic model encountered its competitive edge in wage depression and constant devaluations. The process of inflation-devaluation reinforced the regressive effects of the model on income, resulting in price increases for urban land and exclusion of the majority of the population from the urban housing market. The new economic model has led to dismantling of the national productive apparatus and consolidation of so-called "productive extroversion," with free economic zones and tourism the focus of accumulation related to the international market. The informal sector has grown because of inflation and because of the crisis in industrial activities destined for the internal market. Agricultural production for internal consumption declined over the decade, encouraging rural-urban migration and further swelling of the informal sector. Growth of Santo Domingo's suburbs and surrounding rural areas is 1 of the main effects of the model. By the year 2000, it is estimated that metropolitan Santo Domingo will contain 45% of the total population of the Dominican Republic. Although no exact functional correspondence can be established between urban policy and the model of accumulation, there are 3 aspects in which the dynamics of the 2 processes complement each other synergistically and perniciously: income concentration, social exclusion, and spatial segregation. Income concentration is increased by inflation and the repeated devaluations, the dismantling of small and medium-sized enterprises, and declining social expenditures. Social exclusion and spatial segregation are furthered by rising urban land prices and exclusion of most of the population from the urban land and housing market and demographic consolidation of periurban centers and rural sectors of the National District.

Biodiversity losses and conservation trade-offs: Assessing future urban growth scenarios for a North American trade corridor

USGS Publications Warehouse

Villarreal, Miguel; Norman, Laura M.; Wallace, Cynthia S.A.; Boykin, Kenneth

2013-01-01

The Sonoran Desert and Apache Highlands ecoregions of North America are areas of exceptionally high plant and vertebrate biodiversity. However, much of the vertebrate biodiversity is supported by only a few vegetation types with limited distributions, some of which are increasingly threatened by changing land uses. We assessed the impacts of two future urban growth scenarios on biodiversity in a binational watershed in Arizona, USA and Sonora, Mexico. We quantified and mapped terrestrial vertebrate species richness using Wildlife Habitat Relation models and validated the results with data from National Park Service biological inventories. Future urban growth, based on historical trends, was projected to the year 2050 for 1) a “Current Trends” scenario and, 2) a “Megalopolis” scenario that represented a transnational growth corridor with open-space conservation attributes. Based on Current Trends, 45% of existing riparian woodland (267 of 451species), and 34% of semi-desert grasslands (215 of 451 species) will be lost, whereas, in the Megalopolis scenario, these types would decline by 44% and 24% respectively. Outcomes of the two models suggest a trade-off at the taxonomic class level: Current Trends would reduce and fragment mammal and herpetofauna habitat, while Megalopolis would result in loss of avian-rich riparian habitat.

Modeling urbanization patterns at a global scale with generative adversarial networks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Albert, A. T.; Strano, E.; Gonzalez, M.

2017-12-01

Current demographic projections show that, in the next 30 years, global population growth will mostly take place in developing countries. Coupled with a decrease in density, such population growth could potentially double the land occupied by settlements by 2050. The lack of reliable and globally consistent socio-demographic data, coupled with the limited predictive performance underlying traditional urban spatial explicit models, call for developing better predictive methods, calibrated using a globally-consistent dataset. Thus, richer models of the spatial interplay between the urban built-up land, population distribution and energy use are central to the discussion around the expansion and development of cities, and their impact on the environment in the context of a changing climate. In this talk we discuss methods for, and present an analysis of, urban form, defined as the spatial distribution of macroeconomic quantities that characterize a city, using modern machine learning methods and best-available remote-sensing data for the world's largest 25,000 cities. We first show that these cities may be described by a small set of patterns in radial building density, nighttime luminosity, and population density, which highlight, to first order, differences in development and land use across the world. We observe significant, spatially-dependent variance around these typical patterns, which would be difficult to model using traditional statistical methods. We take a first step in addressing this challenge by developing CityGAN, a conditional generative adversarial network model for simulating realistic urban forms. To guide learning and measure the quality of the simulated synthetic cities, we develop a specialized loss function for GAN optimization that incorporates standard spatial statistics used by urban analysis experts. Our framework is a stark departure from both the standard physics-based approaches in the literature (that view urban forms as fractals with a scale-free behavior), and the traditional statistical learning approaches (whereby values of individual pixels are modeled as functions of locally-defined, hand-engineered features). This is a first-of-its-kind analysis of urban forms using data at a planetary scale.

Developing spatially explicit footprints of plausible land-use scenarios in the Santa Cruz Watershed, Arizona and Sonora

USGS Publications Warehouse

Norman, Laura M.; Feller, Mark; Villarreal, Miguel L.

2012-01-01

The SLEUTH urban growth model is applied to a binational dryland watershed to envision and evaluate plausible future scenarios of land use change into the year 2050. Our objective was to create a suite of geospatial footprints portraying potential land use change that can be used to aid binational decision-makers in assessing the impacts relative to sustainability of natural resources and potential socio-ecological consequences of proposed land-use management. Three alternatives are designed to simulate different conditions: (i) a Current Trends Scenario of unmanaged exponential growth, (ii) a Conservation Scenario with managed growth to protect the environment, and (iii) a Megalopolis Scenario in which growth is accentuated around a defined international trade corridor. The model was calibrated with historical data extracted from a time series of satellite images. Model materials, methodology, and results are presented. Our Current Trends Scenario predicts the footprint of urban growth to approximately triple from 2009 to 2050, which is corroborated by local population estimates. The Conservation Scenario results in protecting 46% more of the Evergreen class (more than 150,000 acres) than the Current Trends Scenario and approximately 95,000 acres of Barren Land, Crops, Deciduous Forest (Mesquite Bosque), Grassland/Herbaceous, Urban/Recreational Grasses, and Wetlands classes combined. The Megalopolis Scenario results also depict the preservation of some of these land-use classes compared to the Current Trends Scenario, most notably in the environmentally important headwaters region. Connectivity and areal extent of land cover types that provide wildlife habitat were preserved under the alternative scenarios when compared to Current Trends.

Hourly Water Quality Dynamics in Rivers Downstream of Urban Areas: Quantifying Seasonal Variation and Modelling Impacts of Urban Growth

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hutchins, M.; McGrane, S. J.; Miller, J. D.; Hitt, O.; Bowes, M.

2016-12-01

Continuous monitoring of water flows and quality is invaluable in improving understanding of the influence of urban areas on river health. When used to inform predictive modelling, insights can be gained as to how urban growth may affect the chemical and biological quality of rivers as they flow downstream into larger waterbodies. Water flow and quality monitoring in two urbanising sub-catchments (<100 km2) of the River Thames (southern UK) is described. Temperature, conductivity, turbidity, dissolved oxygen (DO) and ammonium (NH4) were measured at downstream locations where long term flow records are available, but particular focus is given to monitoring of an extended set of sites during prolonged winter rainfall. In the Ray sub-catchment streams were monitored in which urban cover varied across a range of 7-78%. A rural-urban gradient in DO was apparent in the low flow period prior to the storms. Transient low DO (< 8 mg L-1) as a response to pollutant first flushes was particularly apparent in urban streams but this was followed by a rapid recovery. Chronic effects lasting for three to four weeks were only seen downstream of a sewage treatment works (STW). In this respect temperature- and respiration-driven DO sags in summer were at least if not more severe than those driven by the winter storms. Likewise, although winter storm NH4 concentrations violated EU legislation downstream of the STW, they were lower than summer concentrations in pollutant flushes following dry spells. In contrast the predominant phenomenon affecting water quality in the Cut during the storms was dilution. Here, a river water quality model was calibrated and applied over the course of a year to capture the importance of periphyton photosynthesis and respiration cycles in determining water quality and to predict the influence of hypothetical urban growth on downstream river health. The periods monitored intensively, dry spells followed by prolonged rainfall, represent: (i) marked changes in conditions likely to become more prevalent in future, (ii) situations under which water quality in urban areas is likely to be particularly vulnerable, being influenced for example by first flush effects followed by capacity exceedance at STW. Despite this, whilst being somewhat long lasting in places, impacts on DO were not severe.

Application of an uncertainty analysis approach to strategic environmental assessment for urban planning.

PubMed

Liu, Yi; Chen, Jining; He, Weiqi; Tong, Qingyuan; Li, Wangfeng

2010-04-15

Urban planning has been widely applied as a regulatory measure to guide a city's construction and management. It represents official expectations on future population and economic growth and land use over the urban area. No doubt, significant variations often occur between planning schemes and actual development; in particular in China, the world's largest developing country experiencing rapid urbanization and industrialization. This in turn leads to difficulty in estimating the environmental consequences of the urban plan. Aiming to quantitatively analyze the uncertain environmental impacts of the urban plan's implementation, this article developed an integrated methodology combining a scenario analysis approach and a stochastic simulation technique for strategic environmental assessment (SEA). Based on industrial development scenarios, Monte Carlo sampling is applied to generate all possibilities of the spatial distribution of newly emerged industries. All related environmental consequences can be further estimated given the industrial distributions as input to environmental quality models. By applying a HSY algorithm, environmentally unacceptable urban growth, regarding both economic development and land use spatial layout, can be systematically identified, providing valuable information to urban planners and decision makers. A case study in Dalian Municipality, Northeast China, is used to illustrate applicability of this methodology. The impacts of Urban Development Plan for Dalian Municipality (2003-2020) (UDP) on atmospheric environment are also discussed in this article.

VERIFICATION OF URBAN RUNOFF MODELS

EPA Science Inventory

Wet Weather Flow Models are used throughout the United States for evaluation of the sanitary, storm and combined sewer systems. Models are used for planning new systems or upgrading of existing systems to accommodate growth or to control undersirable overflows and associated wat...

The Evolving Urban Community and Military Installations: A Dynamic Spatial Decision Support System for Sustainable Military Communities

DTIC Science & Technology

2007-01-01

focus on identifying growth by income and housing costs. These, and other models are focused on the city itself and deal with growth over the course...2. This model employs a set of econometric models to project future population, household, and employment. The landscape is gridded into one... model in LEAM (LEAMecon) forecasts changes in output, employment and income over time based on changes in the market, technology, productivity and

Random-growth urban model with geographical fitness

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kii, Masanobu; Akimoto, Keigo; Doi, Kenji

2012-12-01

This paper formulates a random-growth urban model with a notion of geographical fitness. Using techniques of complex-network theory, we study our system as a type of preferential-attachment model with fitness, and we analyze its macro behavior to clarify the properties of the city-size distributions it predicts. First, restricting the geographical fitness to take positive values and using a continuum approach, we show that the city-size distributions predicted by our model asymptotically approach Pareto distributions with coefficients greater than unity. Then, allowing the geographical fitness to take negative values, we perform local coefficient analysis to show that the predicted city-size distributions can deviate from Pareto distributions, as is often observed in actual city-size distributions. As a result, the model we propose can generate a generic class of city-size distributions, including but not limited to Pareto distributions. For applications to city-population projections, our simple model requires randomness only when new cities are created, not during their subsequent growth. This property leads to smooth trajectories of city population growth, in contrast to other models using Gibrat’s law. In addition, a discrete form of our dynamical equations can be used to estimate past city populations based on present-day data; this fact allows quantitative assessment of the performance of our model. Further study is needed to determine appropriate formulas for the geographical fitness.

Coupled SWAT-MODFLOW Model Development for Large Basins

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Aliyari, F.; Bailey, R. T.; Tasdighi, A.

2017-12-01

Water management in semi-arid river basins requires allocating water resources between urban, industrial, energy, and agricultural sectors, with the latter competing for necessary irrigation water to sustain crop yield. Competition between these sectors will intensify due to changes in climate and population growth. In this study, the recently developed SWAT-MODFLOW coupled hydrologic model is modified for application in a large managed river basin that provides both surface water and groundwater resources for urban and agricultural areas. Specific modifications include the linkage of groundwater pumping and irrigation practices and code changes to allow for the large number of SWAT hydrologic response units (HRU) required for a large river basin. The model is applied to the South Platte River Basin (SPRB), a 56,980 km2 basin in northeastern Colorado dominated by large urban areas along the front range of the Rocky Mountains and agriculture regions to the east. Irregular seasonal and annual precipitation and 150 years of urban and agricultural water management history in the basin provide an ideal test case for the SWAT-MODFLOW model. SWAT handles land surface and soil zone processes whereas MODFLOW handles groundwater flow and all sources and sinks (pumping, injection, bedrock inflow, canal seepage, recharge areas, groundwater/surface water interaction), with recharge and stream stage provided by SWAT. The model is tested against groundwater levels, deep percolation estimates, and stream discharge. The model will be used to quantify spatial groundwater vulnerability in the basin under scenarios of climate change and population growth.

Aggregate supply and demand modeling using GIS methods for the front range urban corridor, Colorado

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Karakas, Ahmet; Turner, Keith

2004-07-01

The combined use of allocation modeling and geographical information system (GIS) technologies for providing quantitative assessments of aggregate supply and demand is evaluated using representative data for the Front Range Urban Corridor (FRUC) in Colorado. The FRUC extends from the Colorado-Wyoming border to south of Colorado Springs, and includes Denver and the major urban growth regions of Colorado. In this area, aggregate demand is high and is increasing in response to population growth. Neighborhood opposition to the establishment of new pits and quarries and the depletion of many deposits are limiting aggregate supplies. Many sources are already covered by urban development or eliminated from production by zoning. Transport of aggregate by rail from distant resources may be required in the future. Two allocation-modeling procedures are tested in this study. Network analysis procedures provided within the ARC/INFO software, are unsatisfactory. Further aggregate allocation modeling used a model specifically designed for this task; a modified version of an existing Colorado School of Mines allocation model allows for more realistic market analyses. This study evaluated four scenarios. The entire region was evaluated with a scenario reflecting the current market and by a second scenario in which some existing suppliers were closed down and new potential suppliers were activated. The conditions within the Denver metropolitan area were studied before and after the introduction of three possible rail-to-truck aggregate distribution centers. GIS techniques are helpful in developing the required database to describe the Front Range Urban Corridor aggregate market conditions. GIS methods allow the digital representation of the regional road network, and the development of a distance matrix relating all suppliers and purchasers.

Method meets application: on the use of earthquake scenarios in community-based disaster preparedness and response

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sargeant, S.; Sorensen, M. B.

2011-12-01

More than 50% of the world's population now live in urban areas. In less developed countries, future urban population increase will be due to natural population growth and rural-to-urban migration. As urban growth continues, the vulnerability of those living in these areas is also increasing. This presents a wide variety of challenges for humanitarian organisations that often have more experience of disaster response in rural settings rather than planning for large urban disasters. The 2010 Haiti earthquake highlighted the vulnerability of these organisations and the communities that they seek to support. To meet this challenge, a key consideration is how scientific information can support the humanitarian sector and their working practices. Here we review the current state of earthquake scenario modelling practice, with special focus on scenarios to be used in disaster response and response planning, and present an evaluation of how the field looks set to evolve. We also review current good practice and lessons learned from previous earthquakes with respect to planning for and responding to earthquakes in urban settings in the humanitarian sector, identifying key sectoral priorities. We then investigate the interface between these two areas to investigate the use of earthquake scenarios in disaster response planning and identify potential challenges both with respect to development of scientific models and their application on the ground.

The Longitudinal Effects of Residential Mobility on the Academic Achievement of Urban Elementary and Middle School Students

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Voight, Adam; Shinn, Marybeth; Nation, Maury

2012-01-01

Residential stability matters to a young person's educational development, and the present housing crisis has disrupted the residential stability of many families. This study uses latent growth-curve modeling to examine how changing residences affects math and reading achievement from third through eighth grade among a sample of urban elementary…

Mapping and analyzing urban growth in West Africa

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Adhikari, P.; de Beurs, K. M.

2014-12-01

Africa has experienced the highest urban growth (~3.5% per year) in the developing world. West Africa in particular has seen significant urban growth mainly driven by the high natural population growth rate and the increasing percentage of population moving to urban areas. Urban growth in West Africa is expected to continue in decades to come. This study uses Landsat data at five different time steps (1970, 1980, 1990, 2000, and 2010) to map four cities from four different eco-regions of West Africa since the early 1970s. The selected four cities, Kumasi in Ghana, Abuja in Nigeria, Tahoua in Niger and Ouagadoughou in Burkina Faso, are some of the fastest growing cities in the region. We selected the cities in the following ecoregions: Eastern Guinean Forest, Guinean Forest-Savanna Mosaic, Sahelian Acacia Savanna and West Sudanian Savanna. We hypothesize that urban growth in West Africa is different compared to the other parts of the world primarily due to the dependency of about 60 percent of active labor force on subsistence agriculture in the region. As agriculture productivity is dependent on favorable climatic conditions (i.e., good rainfall, suitable temperature), any variability in climate impends the livelihood of subsistence farmers triggering the movements of more people towards the cities. Therefore, studying urban growth based on ecoregions help to better explain the urban development in West Africa. After mapping the urban areas, this study makes a comparative analysis of the temporal and spatial pattern of the urban growths across the ecoregions in West Africa.

Monitoring the Urban Tree Cover for Urban Ecosystem Services - The Case of Leipzig, Germany

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Banzhaf, E.; Kollai, H.

2015-04-01

Urban dynamics such as (extreme) growth and shrinkage bring about fundamental challenges for urban land use and related changes. In order to achieve a sustainable urban development, it is crucial to monitor urban green infrastructure at microscale level as it provides various urban ecosystem services in neighbourhoods, supporting quality of life and environmental health. We monitor urban trees by means of a multiple data set to get a detailed knowledge on its distribution and change over a decade for the entire city. We have digital orthophotos, a digital elevation model and a digital surface model. The refined knowledge on the absolute height above ground helps to differentiate tree tops. Grounded on an object-based image analysis scheme a detailed mapping of trees in an urbanized environment is processed. Results show high accuracy of tree detection and avoidance of misclassification due to shadows. The study area is the City of Leipzig, Germany. One of the leading German cities, it is home to contiguous community allotments that characterize the configuration of the city. Leipzig has one of the most well-preserved floodplain forests in Europe.

Heuristic urban transportation network design method, a multilayer coevolution approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ding, Rui; Ujang, Norsidah; Hamid, Hussain bin; Manan, Mohd Shahrudin Abd; Li, Rong; Wu, Jianjun

2017-08-01

The design of urban transportation networks plays a key role in the urban planning process, and the coevolution of urban networks has recently garnered significant attention in literature. However, most of these recent articles are based on networks that are essentially planar. In this research, we propose a heuristic multilayer urban network coevolution model with lower layer network and upper layer network that are associated with growth and stimulate one another. We first use the relative neighbourhood graph and the Gabriel graph to simulate the structure of rail and road networks, respectively. With simulation we find that when a specific number of nodes are added, the total travel cost ratio between an expanded network and the initial lower layer network has the lowest value. The cooperation strength Λ and the changeable parameter average operation speed ratio Θ show that transit users' route choices change dramatically through the coevolution process and that their decisions, in turn, affect the multilayer network structure. We also note that the simulated relation between the Gini coefficient of the betweenness centrality, Θ and Λ have an optimal point for network design. This research could inspire the analysis of urban network topology features and the assessment of urban growth trends.

Prevalent vegetation growth enhancement in urban environment.

PubMed

Zhao, Shuqing; Liu, Shuguang; Zhou, Decheng

2016-05-31

Urbanization, a dominant global demographic trend, leads to various changes in environments (e.g., atmospheric CO2 increase, urban heat island). Cities experience global change decades ahead of other systems so that they are natural laboratories for studying responses of other nonurban biological ecosystems to future global change. However, the impacts of urbanization on vegetation growth are not well understood. Here, we developed a general conceptual framework for quantifying the impacts of urbanization on vegetation growth and applied it in 32 Chinese cities. Results indicated that vegetation growth, as surrogated by satellite-observed vegetation index, decreased along urban intensity across all cities. At the same time, vegetation growth was enhanced at 85% of the places along the intensity gradient, and the relative enhancement increased with urban intensity. This growth enhancement offset about 40% of direct loss of vegetation productivity caused by replacing productive vegetated surfaces with nonproductive impervious surfaces. In light of current and previous field studies, we conclude that vegetation growth enhancement is prevalent in urban settings. Urban environments do provide ideal natural laboratories to observe biological responses to environmental changes that are difficult to mimic in manipulative experiments. However, one should be careful in extrapolating the finding to nonurban environments because urban vegetation is usually intensively managed, and attribution of the responses to diverse driving forces will be challenging but must be pursued.

Prevalent vegetation growth enhancement in urban environment

PubMed Central

Zhao, Shuqing; Liu, Shuguang; Zhou, Decheng

2016-01-01

Urbanization, a dominant global demographic trend, leads to various changes in environments (e.g., atmospheric CO2 increase, urban heat island). Cities experience global change decades ahead of other systems so that they are natural laboratories for studying responses of other nonurban biological ecosystems to future global change. However, the impacts of urbanization on vegetation growth are not well understood. Here, we developed a general conceptual framework for quantifying the impacts of urbanization on vegetation growth and applied it in 32 Chinese cities. Results indicated that vegetation growth, as surrogated by satellite-observed vegetation index, decreased along urban intensity across all cities. At the same time, vegetation growth was enhanced at 85% of the places along the intensity gradient, and the relative enhancement increased with urban intensity. This growth enhancement offset about 40% of direct loss of vegetation productivity caused by replacing productive vegetated surfaces with nonproductive impervious surfaces. In light of current and previous field studies, we conclude that vegetation growth enhancement is prevalent in urban settings. Urban environments do provide ideal natural laboratories to observe biological responses to environmental changes that are difficult to mimic in manipulative experiments. However, one should be careful in extrapolating the finding to nonurban environments because urban vegetation is usually intensively managed, and attribution of the responses to diverse driving forces will be challenging but must be pursued. PMID:27185955

Potential sensitivity of warm season precipitation to urbanization extents: Modeling study in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei urban agglomeration in China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Jun; Feng, Jinming; Yan, Zhongwei

2015-09-01

In this study, we investigated how different degrees of urbanization affect local and regional rainfall using high-resolution simulations based on the Weather Research and Forecasting Model. The extreme rainfall event of 21 July 2012 in Beijing was simulated for three representative urban land use distributions (no urbanization, early urbanization level of 1980, and recent urbanization level of 2009). Results suggest that urban modification of rainfall is potentially sensitive to urban land use condition. Rainfall was increased significantly over the downwind Beijing metropolis because of the effects of early urbanization; however, recent conditions of high urban development caused no significant increase. Further comparative analysis revealed that positive urban thermodynamical effects (i.e., urban warming, increased sensible heat transportation, and enhanced convergence and vertical motions) play major roles in urban modification of rainfall during the early urbanization stage. However, after cities expand to a certain extent (i.e., urban agglomeration), the regional moisture depression induced by the prevalence of impervious urban land has an effect on atmospheric instability energy, which might negate the city's positive impact on regional rainfall. Additional results from regional climate simulations for 10 Julys confirm this supposition. Given the explosive urban population growth and increasing demand for freshwater in cities, the potential negative effects of the urban environment on precipitation are worth investigation, particularly in rapidly developing countries and regions.

Study on Spatial Spillover Effects of Logistics Industry Development for Economic Growth in the Yangtze River Delta City Cluster Based on Spatial Durbin Model

PubMed Central

Xu, Xinxing

2017-01-01

The overall entropy method is used to evaluate the development level of the logistics industry in the city based on a mechanism analysis of the spillover effect of the development of the logistics industry on economic growth, according to the panel data of 26 cities in the Yangtze River delta. On this basis, the paper uses the spatial durbin model to study the direct impact of the development of the logistics industry on economic growth and the spatial spillover effect. The results show that the direct impact coefficient of the development of the logistics industry in the Yangtze River Delta urban agglomeration on local economic growth is 0.092, and the significant spatial spillover effect on the economic growth in the surrounding area is 0.197. Compared with the labor force input, capital investment and the degree of opening to the world, and government functions, the logistics industry’s direct impact coefficient is the largest, other than capital investment; the coefficient of the spillover effect is higher than other control variables, making it a “strong engine” of the Yangtze River Delta urban agglomeration economic growth. PMID:29207555

Study on Spatial Spillover Effects of Logistics Industry Development for Economic Growth in the Yangtze River Delta City Cluster Based on Spatial Durbin Model.

PubMed

Xu, Xinxing; Wang, Yuhong

2017-12-04

The overall entropy method is used to evaluate the development level of the logistics industry in the city based on a mechanism analysis of the spillover effect of the development of the logistics industry on economic growth, according to the panel data of 26 cities in the Yangtze River delta. On this basis, the paper uses the spatial durbin model to study the direct impact of the development of the logistics industry on economic growth and the spatial spillover effect. The results show that the direct impact coefficient of the development of the logistics industry in the Yangtze River Delta urban agglomeration on local economic growth is 0.092, and the significant spatial spillover effect on the economic growth in the surrounding area is 0.197. Compared with the labor force input, capital investment and the degree of opening to the world, and government functions, the logistics industry's direct impact coefficient is the largest, other than capital investment; the coefficient of the spillover effect is higher than other control variables, making it a "strong engine" of the Yangtze River Delta urban agglomeration economic growth.

A study on the relationship between carbon budget and ecosystem service in urban areas according to urbanization

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lee, S. J.; Lee, W. K.

2017-12-01

The study on the analysis of carbon storage capacity of urban green spaces with increasing urban forest. Modern cities have experienced rapid economic development since Industrial Revolution in the 18th century. The rapid economic growth caused an exponential concentration of population to the cities and decrease of green spaces due to the conversion of forest and agricultural lands to build-up areas with rapid urbanization. As green areas including forests, grasslands, and wetlands provide diverse economic, environmental, and cultural benefits, the decrease of green areas might be a huge loss. Also, the process of urbanization caused pressure on the urban environment more than its natural capacity, which accelerates global climate change. This study tries to see the relations between carbon budget and ecosystem services according to the urbanization. For calculating carbon dynamics, this study used VISIT(Vegetation Integrated Simulator for trace gases) model. And the value that ecosystem provides is explained with the concept of ecosystem service and calculated by InVEST model. Study sites are urban and peri-urban areas in Northeast Asia. From the result of the study, the effect of the urbanization can be understood in regard to carbon storage and ecosystem services.

Growth Control: Some Questions for Urban Decisionmakers.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Levine, Robert A.

This report is intended to provide urban decisionmakers--mayors, city managers, planning directors, key staff and line officials, city councilmen--and citizen groups with a guide to some of the issues that surround the effort to bring urban growth under control. The report attempts to be neutral in regard to whether urban growth should be…

Advance strategy for climate change adaptation and mitigation in cities

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Varquez, A. C. G.; Kanda, M.; Darmanto, N. S.; Sueishi, T.; Kawano, N.

2017-12-01

An on-going 5-yr project financially supported by the Ministry of Environment, Japan, has been carried out to specifically address the issue of prescribing appropriate adaptation and mitigation measures to climate change in cities. Entitled "Case Study on Mitigation and Local Adaptation to Climate Change in an Asian Megacity, Jakarta", the project's relevant objectives is to develop a research framework that can consider both urbanization and climate change with the main advantage of being readily implementable for all cities around the world. The test location is the benchmark city, Jakarta, Indonesia, with the end focus of evaluating the benefits of various mitigation and adaptation strategies in Jakarta and other megacities. The framework was designed to improve representation of urban areas when conducting climate change investigations in cities; and to be able to quantify separately the impacts of urbanization and climate change to all cities globally. It is comprised of a sophisticated, top-down, multi-downscaling approach utilizing a regional model (numerical weather model) and a microscale model (energy balance model and CFD model), with global circulation models (GCM) as input. The models, except the GCM, were configured to reasonably consider land cover, urban morphology, and anthropogenic heating (AH). Equally as important, methodologies that can collect and estimate global distribution of urban parametric and AH datasets are continually being developed. Urban growth models, climate scenario matrices that match representative concentration pathways with shared socio-economic pathways, present distribution of socio-demographic indicators such as population and GDP, existing GIS datasets of urban parameters, are utilized. From these tools, future urbanization (urban morphological parameters and AH) can be introduced into the models. Sensitivity using various combinations of GCM and urbanization can be conducted. Furthermore, since the models utilize parameters that can be readily modified to suit certain countermeasures, adaptation and mitigation strategies can be evaluated using thermal comfort and other social indicators. With the approaches introduced through this project, a deeper understanding of urban-climate interactions in the changing global climate can be achieved.

Assessment of urban tree growth from structure, nutrients and composition data derived from airborne lidar and imaging spectroscopy

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gu, H.; Townsend, P. A.; Singh, A.

2014-12-01

Urban forests provide important ecosystem services related to climate, nutrients, runoff and aesthetics. Assessment of variations in urban forest growth is critical to urban management and planning, as well as to identify responses to climate and other environmental changes. We estimated annual relative basal area increment by tree rings from 37 plots in Madison, Wisconsin and neighboring municipalities. We related relative basal area growth to variables of vegetation traits derived from remote sensing, including structure (aboveground biomass, diameter, height, basal area, crown width and crown length) from discrete-return airborne lidar, and biochemical variables (foliar nitrogen, carbon, lignin, cellulose, fiber and LMA), spectral indices (NDVI, NDWI, PRI, NDII etc.) and species composition from AVIRIS hyperspectral imagery. Variations in tree growth was mainly correlated with tree species composition (R2 = 0.29, RMSE = 0.004) with coniferous stands having a faster growth rate than broadleaf plots. Inclusion of stand basal area improved model prediction from R2 = 0.29 to 0.35, with RMSE = 0.003. Then, we assessed the growth by functional type, we found that foliar lignin concentration and the proportion of live coniferous trees explained 57% variance in the growth of conifer stands. In contrast, broadleaf forest growth was more strongly correlated with species composition and foliar carbon (R2 = 0.59, RMSE = 0.003). Finally, we compared the relative basal area growth by species. In our study area, red pine and white pine exhibited higher growth rates than other species, while white oak plots grew slowest. There is a significant negative relationship between tree height and the relative growth in red pine stands (r = -0.95), as well as a strong negative relationship between crown width and the relative growth in white pine stands (r = -0.87). Growth declines as trees grow taller and wider may partly be the result of reduced photosynthesis and water availability. We also found that canopy cellulose content was negatively correlated with growth in white oak (r = -0.59), which could be caused by trade off of carbon allocation from shoot storage to leaves. These results demonstrate the potential of lidar and hyperspectral imagery to characterize important traits associated with biomass accumulation in urban forests.

Urban vegetation and thermal patterns following city growth in different socio-economic contexts

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dronova, I.; Clinton, N.; Yang, J.; Radke, J.; Marx, S. S.; Gong, P.

2015-12-01

Urban expansion accompanied by losses of vegetated spaces and their ecological services raises significant concerns about the future of humans in metropolitan "habitats". Despite recent growth of urban studies globally, it is still not well understood how environmental effects of urbanization vary with the rate and socioeconomic context of development. Our study hypothesized that with urban development, spatial patterns of surface thermal properties and green plant cover would shift towards higher occurrence of relatively warmer and less vegetated spaces such as built-up areas, followed by losses of greener and cooler areas such as urban forests, and that these shifts would be more pronounced with higher rate of economic and/or population growth. To test these ideas, we compared 1992-2011 changes in remotely sensed patterns of green vegetation and surface temperature in three example cities that experienced peripheral growth under contrasting socio-economic context - Dallas, TX, USA, Beijing, China and Kyiv, Ukraine. To assess their transformation, we proposed a metric of thermal-vegetation angle (TVA) estimated from per-pixel proxies of vegetation greenness and surface temperature from Landsat satellite data and examined changes in TVA distributions within each city's core and two decadal zones of peripheral sprawl delineated from nighttime satellite data. We found that higher economic and population growth were coupled with more pronounced changes in TVA distributions, and more urbanized zones often exhibited higher frequencies of warmer, less green than average TVA values with novel patterns such as "cooler" clusters of building shadows. Although greener and cooler spaces generally diminished with development, they remained relatively prevalent in low-density residential areas of Dallas and peripheral zones of Kyiv with exurban subsistence farming. Overall, results indicate that the effects of modified green space and thermal patterns within growing cities highly vary depending on economy, population trends and historical legacies of planned green spaces. Remote sensing-based metrics such as TVA facilitate their comparisons and offer useful strategies to cost-effectively monitor urban transformation and inform more explicit environmental modeling of cities in the future.

The use of GIS for monitoring and predicting urban growth in east and west St Paul, Winnipeg, Manitoba, Canada.

PubMed

Hathout, S

2002-11-01

Most urban growth in Canada occurs in the urban-rural fringe. The increasing dispersal of the Canadian urban population is due to centrifugal forces pulling urbanites past the suburbs into the surrounding exurban communities. Most Canadian urban centres are located on prime agricultural land. Exurban sprawl devours an inordinate amount of the better agricultural land. The growth around the city of Winnipeg is a case in point. Within Winnipeg's urban field are the rural municipalities of East and West St Paul. The objective of this study is to investigate the impact of urban growth on the agricultural land of these RMs as well as the rate of urban growth in both Municipalities based on database analysis using aerial photographs taken in 1960 and 1989 and Geographic Information System (GIS). East St Paul was found to have a higher rate of urbanization (from 10.14% to 43.75%) between 1960 and 1989 than West St Paul (from 7.36% to 23.57%). The growth prediction using Markov probability chain analysis showed that East St Paul will henceforth experience a reduced rate of increase than West St Paul. The rate of urbanization for both RMs is found to be comparable with areas surrounding other major cities such as Toronto. The largest increases in urban land use categories occurred in and around the existing exurban settlements. It was found that most urbanization take place on the most fertile soil.

Characterizing continuous urban growth using composited time-series Landsat data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Song, X. P.; Sexton, J. O.; Huang, C.; Feng, M.; Channan, S.; Baker, M. E.; Townshend, J. R.

2014-12-01

Impervious surfaces are land cover features through which water cannot penetrate into the soil. As an indicator of urban land use, impervious surface cover (ISC) is disproportionally important to human beings-although covering only 0.5% of the Earth's terrestrial surface, cities support over 50% the Earth's population. The increasing demand for built-up space by a growing urban population has been driving land use change in urban areas worldwide. An increase in ISC can significantly impact the biophysical characteristics of land surface, such as altering the local surface energy balance, or transforming regional hydrological systems. Remotely sensed data is commonly used as the primary data source for extracting impervious surface information for monitoring urban growth, but current studies often lack the sufficient temporal resolution or thematic detail to reveal the long-term, nonlinear development of impervious surfaces over time. In a previous study (Sexton et al. 2013), we created an annual stack of 30-m percent ISC estimates for the Washington DC-Baltimore metropolitan region from 1984 to 2010 by compositing all available Landsat images in the USGS archive. Here we developed a robust time-series method to detect impervious surface change. The method employs a customized logistic function for every pixel to model the continuous process of urban growth. It quantifies the fractional intensity of ISC change at the sub-pixel level and also characterizes the timing and length (in years) of urban development. The new method detects change based on a sequence of observations before, during and after change and thus is highly resistant to random noises. Our results showed that the DC-Baltimore metropolitan region experienced an accelerated growth pathway from the late 1980s to the late 2000s. The majority of urban and sub-urban development occurred at scales finer than the Landsat resolution (30 m), with a region-wide mean intensity of 46% ISC increase. Our study demonstrates the value of the long-term and fine temporal resolution data offered by the Landsat archive, and also highlights the possible limitations of Landsat's spatial resolution in characterizing continuous urban development.

Understanding Urban Development In Canada. "Understanding Economics" Series No. 3.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Plunkett, T. J.

This booklet for Canadian secondary school students examines urbanization and its relationship to other factors of the economy. Five sections analyze urbanization, the pattern of urban development, community needs, the management of urban growth, and urban governance. Part I traces the growth of the Canadian population, noting that 10% of the…

Global Urban Mapping and Modeling for Sustainable Urban Development

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhou, Y.; Li, X.; Asrar, G.; Yu, S.; Smith, S.; Eom, J.; Imhoff, M. L.

2016-12-01

In the past several decades, the world has experienced fast urbanization, and this trend is expected to continue for decades to come. Urbanization, one of the major land cover and land use changes (LCLUC), is becoming increasingly important in global environmental changes, such as urban heat island (UHI) growth and vegetation phenology change. Better scientific insights and effective decision-making unarguably require reliable science-based information on spatiotemporal changes in urban extent and their environmental impacts. In this study, we developed a globally consistent 20-year urban map series to evaluate the time-reactive nature of global urbanization from the nighttime lights remote sensing data, and projected future urban expansion in the 21st century by employing an integrated modeling framework (Zhou et al. 2014, Zhou et al. 2015). We then evaluated the impacts of urbanization on building energy use and vegetation phenology that affect both ecosystem services and human health. We extended the modeling capability of building energy use in the Global Change Assessment Model (GCAM) with consideration of UHI effects by coupling the remote sensing based urbanization modeling and explored the impact of UHI on building energy use. We also investigated the impact of urbanization on vegetation phenology by using an improved phenology detection algorithm. The derived spatiotemporal information on historical and potential future urbanization and its implications in building energy use and vegetation phenology will be of great value in sustainable urban design and development for building energy use and human health (e.g., pollen allergy), especially when considered together with other factors such as climate variability and change. Zhou, Y., S. J. Smith, C. D. Elvidge, K. Zhao, A. Thomson & M. Imhoff (2014) A cluster-based method to map urban area from DMSP/OLS nightlights. Remote Sensing of Environment, 147, 173-185. Zhou, Y., S. J. Smith, K. Zhao, M. Imhoff, A. Thomson, B. Bond-Lamberty, G. R. Asrar, X. Zhang, C. He & C. D. Elvidge (2015) A global map of urban extent from nightlights. Environmental Research Letters, 10, 054011.

Parent Psychopathology and Youth Internalizing Symptoms in an Urban Community: A Latent Growth Model Analysis

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Burstein, Marcy; Ginsburg, Golda S.; Petras, Hanno; Ialongo, Nicholas

2010-01-01

The present study examined the developmental trajectories of youth depression and anxiety symptoms from 6th through 12th grade in a low-income, urban sample (N = 141; mean age = 11.75 years; 88.7% African American). The study also tested the independent contribution of parent mood disorders, anxiety disorders, and substance use disorders assessed…

A scaleable methodology for assessing the impacts of urban shade on the summer electricity use of residential homes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Taylor, Robert Vanderlei

Our cities are experiencing unprecedented growth while net global temperatures continue to trend warmer making sustainable urban development and energy conservation pressing public issues. This research explores how urban landscaping -- in particular trees and buildings -- affect summer electricity use in residential homes. I studied the interactions of urban shade and temperature to explore how vegetation distribution and intensity could play a meaningful role in heat mitigation in urban environments. Only a few studies have reconciled modeled electricity savings from tree shade with actual electricity consumption data. This research proposes a methodology for modeling the isolated effects of urban shade (tree shade vs building shade) on buildings' summertime electricity consumption from micro to mesoscales, empirically validating the modeled shade with actual electricity billing data, and comparing the electric energetic impact of tree shade effects with building shade effects. This proposed methodology seeks to resolve three primary research questions: 1) What are the modeled quantities of urban shade associated with the area of interest (AOI)? 2) To what extent do the effects of shading from trees and buildings mitigate summertime heat in the AOI? 2) To what extent do the shade effects from trees and buildings reduce summertime electricity consumption in the AOI?

Monitoring Urban Land Cover/land Use Change in Algiers City Using Landsat Images (1987-2016)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bouchachi, B.; Zhong, Y.

2017-09-01

Monitoring the Urban Land Cover/Land Use change detection is important as one of the main driving forces of environmental change because Urbanization is the biggest changes in form of Land, resulting in a decrease in cultivated areas. Using remote sensing ability to solve land resources problems. The purpose of this research is to map the urban areas at different times to monitor and predict possible urban changes, were studied the annual growth urban land during the last 29 years in Algiers City. Improving the productiveness of long-term training in land mapping, were have developed an approach by the following steps: 1) pre-processing for improvement of image characteristics; 2) extract training sample candidates based on the developed methods; and 3) Derive maps and analyzed of Algiers City on an annual basis from 1987 to 2016 using a Supervised Classifier Support Vector Machine (SVMs). Our result shows that the strategy of urban land followed in the region of Algiers City, developed areas mostly were extended to East, West, and South of Central Regions. The urban growth rate is linked with National Office of Statistics data. Future studies are required to understand the impact of urban rapid lands on social, economy and environmental sustainability, it will also close the gap in data of urbanism available, especially on the lack of reliable data, environmental and urban planning for each municipality in Algiers, develop experimental models to predict future land changes with statistically significant confidence.

Status of NASA Satellite, Field Observations, and Numerical Modeling Addressing the Impact of Urbanization on Short and Long Term Precipitation Variability

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Shepherd, J. Marshall; Manyin, Michael; Burian, Steve; Garza, Carlos

2004-01-01

Howard (1833a) made the first documented observation of a temperature difference between an urban area and its rural environment. Manley (1958) termed this contrast the "urban heat island (UHI)". The UHI has now become a widely acknowledged, observed, and researched phenomenon because of its broad implications. It is estimated that by the year 2025, 60% of the world's population will live in cities (UNFP, 1999). In the United States, the current urban growth rate is approximately 12.5%, with 80% currently living in urban areas. As cities continue to grow, urban sprawl creates unique problems related to land use, transportation, agriculture, housing, pollution, and development for policymakers. Urban expansion and its associated urban heat islands also have measurable impacts on weather and climate processes.

Investigation of the climate change within Moscow metropolitan area

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Varentsov, Mikhail; Trusilova, Kristina; Konstantinov, Pavel; Samsonov, Timofey

2014-05-01

As the urbanization continues worldwide more than half of the Earth's population live in the cities (U.N., 2010). Therefore the vulnerability of the urban environment - the living space for millions of people - to the climate change has to be investigated. It is well known that urban features strongly influence the atmospheric boundary layer and determine the microclimatic features of the local environment, such as urban heat island (UHI). Available temperature observations in cities are, however, influenced by the natural climate variations, human-induced climate warming (IPCC, 2007) and in the same time by the growth and structural modification of the urban areas. The relationship between these three factors and their roles in climate changes in the cities are very important for the climatic forecast and requires better understanding. In this study, we made analysis of the air temperature change and urban heat island evolution within Moscow urban area during decades 1970-2010, while this urban area had undergone intensive growth and building modification allowing the population of Moscow to increase from 7 to 12 million people. Analysis was based on the data from several meteorological stations in Moscow region and Moscow city, including meteorological observatory of Lomonosov Moscow State University. Differences in climate change between urban and rural stations, changes of the power and shape of urban heat island and their relationships with changes of building height and density were investigated. Collected data and obtained results are currently to be used for the validation of the regional climate model COSMO-CLM with the purpose to use this model for further more detailed climate research and forecasts for Moscow metropolitan area. References: 1. U.N. (2010), World Urbanization Prospects. The 2009 Revision.Rep., 1-47 pp, United Nations. Department of Economic and Social Affairs. Population Division., New York. 2. IPCC (2007), IPCC Fourth Assessment Report: Climate Change 2007 (AR4) Rep.,Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA.

40 CFR 81.338 - Oregon.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-07-01

... Urban Growth Boundary Medford Area Jackson County (part) 9/23/02 Attainment Medford Urban Growth... Intrastate Unclassifiable/Attainment Crook County Deschutes County Hood River County Jefferson County Klamath County (part) area outside Urban Growth Boundary Lake County Sherman County Wasco County AQCR 191 Eastern...

Projected Impact of Urban Growth on Climate Change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Amato, Federico; Murgante, Beniamino; Martellozzo, Federico

2017-04-01

Human activities on land use such as intensive agricultural techniques and urbanization are generating a number of social and economic benefit for contemporary society. Besides, these phenomena are one of the most significant causes of Land Degradation. Firstly, intensive agriculture is on the one hand creating an advantage in the short-period in terms of food production, while on the other is producing serious long-period problems in terms of loss of ecosystem services, including some important for agriculture itself. Secondly, the rapid growth of urban areas in recent decades is generating deep environmental issues. The World Urbanization Prospect by the United Nations (UN) shows that more than half of the world's population today (54%) lives in urban areas. This figure was only 30% in 1950, and estimates are that it will rise to 66% by 2050. Urban growth is responsible for the increase of air pollution, waste production, energy consumption, and land take. Moreover, the expansion of urban areas is making the problem of urban heat islands more relevant, and studies are proving how land cover changes are among the main factors that affect local microclimates. Consequently, territorial planning will play an important role in the fight to mitigate the effects of climate change, as land cover has a significant impact on the energy exchanges between the earth and the atmosphere. This study couples urban growth simulation models based on cellular automata to multiple linear regression techniques that are used to formulate equations for predicting the effects of simulated urban development on soil surface temperature. The proposed methodology is applied to the case study of the Italian national territory, considering various alternative scenarios of land use changes and of their impact on local surface temperatures. The results show that the areas with the greatest urban pressure might be subject to significant climatic changes due to the increased impact of urban heat island phenomena. This highlights the need to take meaningful action to reverse the trends currently in place concerning the territorial government, with the purpose of creating a renewed political and social context that can reduce Land Degradation phenomena. These assumptions are considered essential to meet the new climate sustainability parameters introduced by the Paris Agreement signed in December 2015.

Urban containment policies and the protection of natural areas: the case of Seoul's greenbelt

Treesearch

David N. Bengston; Yeo-Chang Youn

2006-01-01

Countries around the world have responded to the problems associated with rapid urban growth and increasingly land-consumptive development patterns by creating a wide range of policy instruments designed to manage urban growth. Of the array of growth management techniques, urban containment policies are considered by some to be a promising approach. This paper focuses...

The use of LANDSAT data to monitor the urban growth of Sao Paulo Metropolitan area

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Dejesusparada, N. (Principal Investigator); Niero, M.; Lombardo, M. A.; Foresti, C.

1982-01-01

Urban growth from 1977 to 1979 of the region between Billings and the Guarapiranga reservoir was mapped and the problematic urban areas identified using several LANDSAT products. Visual and automatic interpretation techniques were applied to the data. Computer compatible tapes of LANDSAT multispectral scanner data were analyzed through the maximum likelihood Gaussian algorithm. The feasibility of monitoring fast urban growth by remote sensing techniques for efficient urban planning and control is demonstrated.

Urban transformation of a metropolis and its environmental impacts: a case study in Shanghai.

PubMed

Tian, Zhan; Cao, Guiying; Shi, Jun; McCallum, Ian; Cui, Linli; Fan, Dongli; Li, Xinhu

2012-06-01

The aim of this paper is to understand the sustainability of urban spatial transformation in the process of rapid urbanization, and calls for future research on the demographic and economic dimensions of climate change. Shanghai towards its transformation to a metropolis has experienced vast socioeconomic and ecological change and calls for future research on the impacts of demographic and economic dimensions on climate change. We look at the major questions (1) to explore economic and demographic growth, land use and land-cover changes in the context of rapid economic and city growth, and (2) to analyze how the demography and economic growth have been associated with the local air temperature and vegetation. We examine urban growth, land use and land-cover changes in the context of rapid economic development and urbanization. We assess the impact of urban expansion on local air temperature and vegetation. The analysis is based on time series data of land use, normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI), and meteorological, demographic and economic data. The results indicate that urban growth has been driven by mass immigration; as a consequence of economic growth and urban expansion, a large amount of farmland has been converted to paved road and residential buildings. Furthermore, the difference between air temperature in urban and exurban areas has increased rapidly. The decrease of high mean annual NDVI has mainly occurred around the dense urban areas.

Urban hydrogeology in Indonesia: A highlight from Jakarta

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lubis, R. F.

2018-02-01

In many cities in the developing countries, groundwater is an important source of public water supply. The interaction between groundwater systems and urban environments has become an urgent challenge for many developing cities in the world, Indonesia included. Contributing factors are, but not limited to, the continuous horizontal and vertical expansion of cities, population growth, climate change, water scarcity and groundwater quality degradation. Jakarta as the capital city of Indonesia becomes a good example to study and implement urban hydrogeology. Urban hydrogeology is a science for investigating groundwater at the hydrological cycle and its change, water regime and quality within the urbanized landscape and zones of its impact. The present paper provides a review of urban groundwater studies in Jakarta in the context of urban water management, advances in hydrogeological investigation, monitoring and modelling since the city was established. The whole study emphasizes the necessity of an integrated urban groundwater management and development supporting hydrogeological techniques for urban areas.

Perspectives on urban conditions and population health.

PubMed

Vlahov, David; Galea, Sandro; Gibble, Emily; Freudenberg, Nicholas

2005-01-01

The majority of the world's population will live in cities in the next few years and the pace of urbanization worldwide will continue to accelerate over the coming decades. While the number of megacities is projected to increase, the largest population growth is expected to be in cities of less than one million people. Such a dramatic demographic shift can be expected to have an impact on population health. Although there has been historic interest in how city living affects health, a cogent framework that enables systematic study of urban health across time and place has yet to emerge. Four alternate but complementary approaches to the study of urban health today are presented (urban health penalty, urban health advantage, urban sprawl, and an integrative urban conditions model) followed by three key questions that may help guide the study and practice of urban health in coming decades.

If they come, will you build it? Urban transportation growth models

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2003-12-01

This report develops several models of historical roadway improvements in the Twin Cities metro area. Planners respond to, and try to shape, demand by recommending investments in new infrastructure and changes in public policy. Sometimes capacity is ...

Space Monitoring of urban sprawl

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nole, G.; Lanorte, A.; Murgante, B.; Lasaponara, R.

2012-04-01

Space Monitoring of urban sprawl Gabriele Nolè (1,2), Antonio Lanorte (1), , Beniamino Murgante (2) and Rosa Lasaponara (1) , (1,2) Institute of Methodologies for Environmental Analysis, National Research Council, Italy (2) Laboratory of Urban and Territorial Systems, University of Basilicata, During the last few decades, in many regions throughout the world abandonment of agricultural land has induced a high concentration of people in densely populated urban areas. The deep social, economic and environmental changes have caused strong and extensive land cover changes. This is regarded as a pressing issue that calls for a clear understanding of the ongoing trends and future urban expansion. The main issue of great importance in modelling urban growth includes spatial and temporal dynamics, scale dynamics, man-induced land use changes. Although urban growth is perceived as necessary for a sustainable economy, uncontrolled or sprawling urban growth can cause various problems, such as, the loss of open space, landscape alteration, environmental pollution, traffic congestion, infrastructure pressure, and other social and economical issues. To face these drawbacks, a continuous monitoring of the urban growth evolution in terms of type and extent of changes over time are essential for supporting planners and decision makers in future urban planning. A critical point for the understanding and monitoring urban expansion processes is the availability of both (i) time-series data set and (ii) updated information relating to the current urban spatial structure a to define and locate the evolution trends. In such a context, an effective contribution can be offered by satellite remote sensing technologies, which are able to provide both historical data archive and up-to-date imagery. Satellite technologies represent a cost-effective mean for obtaining useful data that can be easily and systematically updated for the whole globe. Nowadays medium resolution satellite images, such as Landsat TM or ASTER can be downloaded free of charge from the NASA web site. The use of satellite imagery along with robust data analysis techniques can be used for the monitoring and planning purposes as these enable the reporting of ongoing trends of urban growth at a detailed level. Nevertheless, the exploitation of satellite Earth Observation in the field of the urban growth monitoring is a relatively new tool, although during the last three decades great efforts have been addressed to the application of remote sensing in detecting land use and land cover changes using a number of data analyses, such as: (i) Spectral enhancement based on vegetation index differencing, principal component analysis, Image differencing and visual interpretation and/or classification, (ii) post-classification change differencing and a combination of image enhancement and post-classification comparison, (iii) mixture analysis, (iv) artificial neural networks, (v) landscape metrics (patchiness and map density) and (vi) the integration of geographical information system and remote sensing data. In this paper a comparison of the methods listed before is carried out using satellite time series made up of Landsat MSS, TM, ETM+ASTER for some test areas selected in South of Italy and Cairo in order to extract and quantify urban sprawl and its spatial and temporal feature patterns.

Bangkok as a magnet for rural labour: changing conditions, 1900-1970.

PubMed

Ouyyanont, P

1998-06-01

This article describes labor force shifts, in Thailand, from rural areas to Bangkok during 1900-1970 and is a revision of a chapter from a doctoral thesis. Urban growth of Bangkok occurred primarily after World War II. Pre-war wages in rural areas were higher than coolie wages in Bangkok. Opportunity costs of changing occupations were high. Chinese immigration was the key to development of non-farm occupations. The Chinese from Siam were drawn to higher wages in Bangkok than were possible in South China ports. After the war, the Lewis-Fei and Ranis migration model fits a pattern of migration that adjusts the disequilibrium between urban and rural markets. There are shifts from low productivity rural sectors to urban high productivity sectors. Capital investment in commerce and industry raised urban labor productivity. The wage data suggest a growing gap between urban and rural sectors postwar. Rail travel during the 1950s brought higher wages for the unskilled in railroad construction. There was high agricultural productivity relative to labor input due to availability of land. Underpopulation meant little unemployment. After 1950, conditions changed. The population growth rate increased. More in rural areas lived below the poverty line. Low rice productivity constrained rural wages and incomes during the 1950s and 1960s. The more favored commercial crops needed less labor. Chinese immigration declined, and demand for labor increased in urban areas. Low urban wages due to cheap labor stimulated profits and growth. Major roads connected Bangkok to the south and the north. Bangkok was viewed as a magical and desirable place.

Analysis of Urban Growth in Edwardsville Illinois Using Remote Sensing and Population Change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Onuoha, Hilda U.

Rapid urbanization is one of the many critical, global issues. This very significant social and economic phenomenon has brought about much debate in the past twenty years and has become a very important policy issue. Understanding its dynamics and patterns is important to develop appropriate policies and make more informed planning decisions. Many dimensions to the urban land growth have been identified in related literature including drivers, relationship with other factors like population, impacts, and methods of measurement. In this study, urban growth in the Edwardsville area (composed of Edwardsville and Glen Carbon, Illinois) is analyzed spatio-temporally using remote sensing and population change from 1990 to 2015. The objectives of this study are (a) identifying the major land use changes in the Edwardsville area from 1990 to 2015, (b) analyzing the rate of urban growth and its relationship to population change in the area from 1990 to 2015, (c) identifying the general pattern and direction of urban growth in the study area. Using multi-temporal satellite images to classify and derive changes in land cover classes during the study period, results showed that the land cover classes with major changes are the urban/built-up land and agricultural/grassland, with a steady increase in the former and steady decrease in the later. Results also show the highest rate of increase in urban land was between 2000 and 2010. In comparison to population, the both show increase over the study years but urban land shows a higher rate of increase indicating dispersion. To analyze urban growth pattern in the area, the study area was divided into three zones: NE, SE, and W. The SE zone showed the highest amount of the growth and from the results, the infill type of growth was inferred.

Analyzing growth and mortality in a subtropical urban forest ecosystem

Treesearch

Alicia B. Lawrence; Fancisco J. Escobedo; Christina L. Staudhammera; Wayne Zipperer Zipperer

2012-01-01

Information on urban tree growth, mortality and in-growth is currently being used to estimate urban forest structure changes and ecosystem services such as carbon sequestration. This study reports on tree diameter growth and mortality in 65 plots distributed among four land use categories, which were established in 2005/2006 in Gainesville, Florida, USA and were re-...

The potential water buffering capacity of urban green infrastructure in an arid environment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Z.; Yang, J.

2017-12-01

Urban green infrastructure offers arid cities an attractive means of mitigation/adaptation to environmental challenges of elevated thermal stress, but imposes the requirement of outdoor irrigation that aggravates the stress of water resource management. Future development of cities is inevitably constrained by the limited availability of water resources, under challenges of emergent climate change and continuous population growth. This study used the Weather Research and Forecasting model with urban dynamics to assess the potential water buffering capacity of urban green infrastructure in arid environments and its implications for sustainable urban planning. The Phoenix metropolitan area, Arizona, United States, is adopted as a testbed with two hypothetical cases, viz. the water-saving and the fully-greening scenarios investigated. Modifications of the existing green infrastructure and irrigation practices are found to significantly influence the thermal environment of Phoenix. In addition, water saving by xeriscaping (0.77 ± 0.05 × 10^8 m^3) allows the region to support 19.8% of the annual water consumption by the projected 2.62 million population growth by 2050, at a cost of an increase in urban ambient temperature of about 1 o^C.

Vegetation growth enhancement in urban environments of the Conterminous United States.

PubMed

Jia, Wenxiao; Zhao, Shuqing; Liu, Shuguang

2018-05-19

Cities are natural laboratories for studying vegetation responses to global environmental changes because of their climate, atmospheric, and biogeochemical conditions. However, few holistic studies have been conducted on the impact of urbanization on vegetation growth. We decomposed the overall impacts of urbanization on vegetation growth into direct (replacement of original land surfaces by impervious built-up) and indirect (urban environments) components, using a conceptual framework and remotely-sensed data for 377 metropolitan statistical areas (MSAs) in the conterminous United States (CONUS) in 2001, 2006, and 2011. Results showed that urban pixels are often greener than expected given the amount of paved surface they contain. The vegetation growth enhancement due to indirect effects occurred in 88.4%, 90.8% and 92.9% of urban bins in 2001, 2006 and 2011, respectively. By defining offset value as the ratio of the absolute indirect and direct impact, we obtained that growth enhancement due to indirect effects compensated for about 29.2%, 29.5% and 31.0% of the reduced productivity due to loss of vegetated surface area on average in 2001, 2006, and 2011, respectively. Vegetation growth responses to urbanization showed little temporal variation but large regional differences with higher offset value in the western CONUS than in the eastern CONUS. Our study highlights the prevalence of vegetation growth enhancement in urban environments and the necessity of differentiating various impacts of urbanization on vegetation growth, and calls for tailored field experiments to understand the relative contributions of various driving forces to vegetation growth and predict vegetation responses to future global change using cities as harbingers. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

Urban Middle-Grade Student Mathematics Achievement Growth under Comprehensive School Reform

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Mac Iver, Martha Abele; Mac Iver, Douglas J.

2009-01-01

Recognizing the need to implement standards-based instructional materials with school-wide coherence led some Philadelphia schools to adopt whole-school reform (WSR) models during the late 1990s. The authors report on the relation between mathematics achievement growth for middle-grade students on the Pennsylvania System of School Assessments and…

A Stable Urban Ecosystem

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Meier, Richard L.

1976-01-01

Describes a model for the future evolution of a stable ecosystem in a densely-populated society. Discusses designs for limiting population growth, resource-conserving settlements, and ways to feed growing cities. (MLH)

The Global Pattern of Urbanization and Economic Growth: Evidence from the Last Three Decades

PubMed Central

Chen, Mingxing; Zhang, Hua; Liu, Weidong; Zhang, Wenzhong

2014-01-01

The relationship between urbanization and economic growth has been perplexing. In this paper, we identify the pattern of global change and the correlation of urbanization and economic growth, using cross-sectional, panel estimation and geographic information systems (GIS) methods. The analysis has been carried out on a global geographical scale, while the timescale of the study spans the last 30 years. The data shows that urbanization levels have changed substantially during these three decades. Empirical findings from cross-sectional data and panel data support the general notion of close links between urbanization levels and GDP per capita. However, we also present significant evidence that there is no correlation between urbanization speed and economic growth rate at the global level. Hence, we conclude that a given country cannot obtain the expected economic benefits from accelerated urbanization, especially if it takes the form of government-led urbanization. In addition, only when all facets are taken into consideration can we fully assess the urbanization process. PMID:25099392

The global pattern of urbanization and economic growth: evidence from the last three decades.

PubMed

Chen, Mingxing; Zhang, Hua; Liu, Weidong; Zhang, Wenzhong

2014-01-01

The relationship between urbanization and economic growth has been perplexing. In this paper, we identify the pattern of global change and the correlation of urbanization and economic growth, using cross-sectional, panel estimation and geographic information systems (GIS) methods. The analysis has been carried out on a global geographical scale, while the timescale of the study spans the last 30 years. The data shows that urbanization levels have changed substantially during these three decades. Empirical findings from cross-sectional data and panel data support the general notion of close links between urbanization levels and GDP per capita. However, we also present significant evidence that there is no correlation between urbanization speed and economic growth rate at the global level. Hence, we conclude that a given country cannot obtain the expected economic benefits from accelerated urbanization, especially if it takes the form of government-led urbanization. In addition, only when all facets are taken into consideration can we fully assess the urbanization process.

Urban environment of New York City promotes growth in northern red oak seedlings.

PubMed

Searle, Stephanie Y; Turnbull, Matthew H; Boelman, Natalie T; Schuster, William S F; Yakir, Dan; Griffin, Kevin L

2012-04-01

Urbanization is accelerating across the globe, elevating the importance of studying urban ecology. Urban environments exhibit several factors affecting plant growth and function, including high temperatures (particularly at night), CO(2) concentrations and atmospheric nitrogen deposition. We investigated the effects of urban environments on growth in Quercus rubra L. seedlings. We grew seedlings from acorns for one season at four sites along an urban-rural transect from Central Park in New York City to the Catskill Mountains in upstate New York (difference in average maximum temperatures of 2.4 °C; difference in minimum temperatures of 4.6 °C). In addition, we grew Q. rubra seedlings in growth cabinets (GCs) mimicking the seasonal differential between the city and rural sites (based on a 5-year average). In the field experiment, we found an eightfold increase in biomass in urban-grown seedlings relative to those grown at rural sites. This difference was primarily related to changes in growth allocation. Urban-grown seedlings and seedlings grown at urban temperatures in the GCs exhibited a lower root: shoot ratio (urban ~0.8, rural/remote ~1.5), reducing below-ground carbon costs associated with construction and maintenance. These urban seedlings instead allocated more growth to leaves than did rural-grown seedlings, resulting in 10-fold greater photosynthetic area but no difference in photosynthetic capacity of foliage per unit area. Seedlings grown at urban temperatures in both the field and GC experiments had higher leaf nitrogen concentrations per unit area than those grown at cooler temperatures (increases of 23% in field, 32% in GC). Lastly, we measured threefold greater (13)C enrichment of respired CO(2) (relative to substrate) in urban-grown leaves than at other sites, which may suggest greater allocation of respiratory function to growth over maintenance. It also shows that lack of differences in total R flux in response to environmental conditions may mask dramatic shifts in respiratory functioning. Overall, our findings indicating greater seedling growth and establishment at a critical regeneration phase of forest development may have important implications for the ecology of urban forests as well as the predicted growth of the terrestrial biosphere in temperate regions in response to climate change.

Remote sensing based approach for monitoring urban growth in Mexico city, Mexico: A case study

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Obade, Vincent

The world is experiencing a rapid rate of urban expansion, largely contributed by the population growth. Other factors supporting urban growth include the improved efficiency in the transportation sector and increasing dependence on cars as a means of transport. The problems attributed to the urban growth include: depletion of energy resources, water and air pollution; loss of landscapes and wildlife, loss of agricultural land, inadequate social security and lack of employment or underemployment. Aerial photography is one of the popular techniques for analyzing, planning and minimizing urbanization related problems. However, with the advances in space technology, satellite remote sensing is increasingly being utilized in the analysis and planning of the urban environment. This article outlines the strengths and limitations of potential remote sensing techniques for monitoring urban growth. The selected methods include: Principal component analysis, Maximum likelihood classification and "decision tree". The results indicate that the "classification tree" approach is the most promising for monitoring urban change, given the improved accuracy and smooth transition between the various land cover classes

Using GIS for Developing Sustainable Urban Growth Case Kyrenia Region

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kara, C.; Akçit, N.

2018-03-01

It is critical to develop urban layers for analysis sustainable urban development possibilities within planning process. Kyrenia Region has many physical, environmental or economic issues that may danger the growth possibilities in sustainable manner. From this point, this study uses different spatial layers such as slope, distance to roads, distance to central zone, vegetation, soil productivity, environmental protection zones, distance to open/green space, distance to education for supporting sustainable urban growth policies and define suitable areas for urban development within this perspective. The study tries to convert sustainable urban growth policies such as; compact growth, environmental protection, equal accessibility to basic services; into spatial layers and establish proper framework for multi criteria evaluation in Kyrenia Region within using geographical information systems. It shows suitability values for Kyrenia region and constraints zones at final section. It clearly presents the suitable areas for the sustainable urbanization and also unsuitable or risky areas for reducing the possible disasters and may happen in the future.

Characterization and spatial modeling of urban sprawl in the Wuhan Metropolitan Area, China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zeng, Chen; Liu, Yaolin; Stein, Alfred; Jiao, Limin

2015-02-01

Urban sprawl has led to environmental problems and large losses of arable land in China. In this study, we monitor and model urban sprawl by means of a combination of remote sensing, geographical information system and spatial statistics. We use time-series data to explore the potential socio-economic driving forces behind urban sprawl, and spatial models in different scenarios to explore the spatio-temporal interactions. The methodology is applied to the city of Wuhan, China, for the period from 1990 to 2013. The results reveal that the built-up land has expanded and has dispersed in urban clusters. Population growth, and economic and transportation development are still the main causes of urban sprawl; however, when they have developed to certain levels, the area affected by construction in urban areas (Jian Cheng Qu (JCQ)) and the area of cultivated land (ACL) tend to be stable. Spatial regression models are shown to be superior to the traditional models. The interaction among districts with the same administrative status is stronger than if one of those neighbors is in the city center and the other in the suburban area. The expansion of urban built-up land is driven by the socio-economic development at the same period, and greatly influenced by its spatio-temporal neighbors. We conclude that the integration of remote sensing, a geographical information system, and spatial statistics offers an excellent opportunity to explore the spatio-temporal variation and interactions among the districts in the sprawling metropolitan areas. Relevant regulations to control the urban sprawl process are suggested accordingly.

Centralised, decentralised or hybrid sanitation systems? Economic evaluation under urban development uncertainty and phased expansion.

PubMed

Roefs, Ivar; Meulman, Brendo; Vreeburg, Jan H G; Spiller, Marc

2017-02-01

Sanitation systems are built to be robust, that is, they are dimensioned to cope with population growth and other variability that occurs throughout their lifetime. It was recently shown that building sanitation systems in phases is more cost effective than one robust design. This phasing can take place by building small autonomous decentralised units that operate closer to the actual demand. Research has shown that variability and uncertainty in urban development does affect the cost effectiveness of this approach. Previous studies do not, however, consider the entire sanitation system from collection to treatment. The aim of this study is to assess the economic performance of three sanitation systems with different scales and systems characteristics under a variety of urban development pathways. Three systems are studied: (I) a centralised conventional activated sludge treatment, (II) a community on site source separation grey water and black water treatment and (III) a hybrid with grey water treatment at neighbourhood scale and black water treatment off site. A modelling approach is taken that combines a simulation of greenfield urban growth, a model of the wastewater collection and treatment infrastructure design properties and a model that translates design parameters into discounted asset lifetime costs. Monte Carlo simulations are used to evaluate the economic performance under uncertain development trends. Results show that the conventional system outperforms both of the other systems when total discounted lifetime costs are assessed, because it benefits from economies of scale. However, when population growth is lower than expected, the source-separated system is more cost effective, because of reduced idle capacity. The hybrid system is not competitive under any circumstance due to the costly double piping and treatment. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Dynamics of the Urban Water-Energy Nexuses of Mumbai and London

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

De Stercke, S.; Mijic, A.; Buytaert, W.; Chaturvedi, V.

2016-12-01

Both in developing as well as industrialized countries, cities are seeing their populations increase as more people concentrate in urban settlements. This burdens existing water and energy systems, which are also increasingly stressed on the supply side due to availability, and policy goals. In addition to the water and energy embedded in the electricity, fuels and water delivered to the city, the linkages in the urban environment itself are important and in magnitude they significantly exceed those upstream in the case of industrialized countries. However, little research has been published on urban water-energy linkages in developing countries. For cities in general, there is also a dearth of studies on the dynamics of these linkages with urban growth and socioeconomic development, and hence of the mutual influence of the urban water and energy systems. System dynamics modeling was used to understand and simulate these dynamics, building on modeling techniques from the water, energy, and urban systems literature. For each of the two characteristically different cities of Mumbai and London a model was constructed and calibrated with data from various public sources and personal interviews. The differences between the two cases are discussed by means of the models. Transition pathways to sustainable cities with respect to water use, energy use and greenhouse gas emissions are illustrated for each city. Furthermore, uncertainties and model sensitivity, and their implications, are presented. Finally, applicability of either or a hybrid of these models to other cities is investigated.

Dynamics of Urban Evolution : Volume 1. Inter-Urban Evolution.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

1978-10-01

The concept of "order by fluctuation," that has appeared recently in physico-chemical and biological systems, is applied to the description of urban growth. It is shown that fluctuations play a vital role in the evolutionary process of urban growth. ...

A Review of Current Investigations of Urban-Induced Rainfall and Recommendations for the Future

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Shepherd, J. Marshall

2004-01-01

Precipitation is a key link in the global water cycle and a proxy for changing climate; therefore proper assessment of the urban environment s impact on precipitation (land use, aerosols, thermal properties) will be increasingly important in ongoing climate diagnostics and prediction, Global Water and Energy Cycle (GWEC) analysis and modeling, weather forecasting, freshwater resource management, urban planning-design and land-atmosphere-ocean interface processes. These facts are particularly critical if current projections for global urban growth are accurate. The goal of this paper is to provide a concise review of recent (1990-present) studies related to how the urban environment affects precipitation. In addition to providing a synopsis of current work, recent findings are placed in context with historical investigations such as METROMEX studies. Both observational and modeling studies of urban-induced rainfall are discussed. Additionally, a discussion of the relative roles of urban dynamic and microphysical (e.g. aerosol) processes is presented. The paper closes with a set of recommendations for what observations and capabilities are needed in the future to advance our understanding of the processes.

Mapping forest structure, species gradients and growth in an urban area using lidar and hyperspectral imagery

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gu, Huan

Urban forests play an important role in the urban ecosystem by providing a range of ecosystem services. Characterization of forest structure, species variation and growth in urban forests is critical for understanding the status, function and process of urban ecosystems, and helping maximize the benefits of urban ecosystems through management. The development of methods and applications to quantify urban forests using remote sensing data has lagged the study of natural forests due to the heterogeneity and complexity of urban ecosystems. In this dissertation, I quantify and map forest structure, species gradients and forest growth in an urban area using discrete-return lidar, airborne imaging spectroscopy and thermal infrared data. Specific objectives are: (1) to demonstrate the utility of leaf-off lidar originally collected for topographic mapping to characterize and map forest structure and associated uncertainties, including aboveground biomass, basal area, diameter, height and crown size; (2) to map species gradients using forest structural variables estimated from lidar and foliar functional traits, vegetation indices derived from AVIRIS hyperspectral imagery in conjunction with field-measured species data; and (3) to identify factors related to relative growth rates in aboveground biomass in the urban forests, and assess forest growth patterns across areas with varying degree of human interactions. The findings from this dissertation are: (1) leaf-off lidar originally acquired for topographic mapping provides a robust, potentially low-cost approach to quantify spatial patterns of forest structure and carbon stock in urban areas; (2) foliar functional traits and vegetation indices from hyperspectral data capture gradients of species distributions in the heterogeneous urban landscape; (3) species gradients, stand structure, foliar functional traits and temperature are strongly related to forest growth in the urban forests; and (4) high uncertainties in our ability to map forest structure, species gradient and growth rate occur in residential neighborhoods and along forest edges. Maps generated from this dissertation provide estimates of broad-scale spatial variations in forest structure, species distributions and growth to the city forest managers. The associated maps of uncertainty help managers understand the limitations of the maps and identify locations where the maps are more reliable and where more data are needed.

Urban climate modifies tree growth in Berlin

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dahlhausen, Jens; Rötzer, Thomas; Biber, Peter; Uhl, Enno; Pretzsch, Hans

2017-12-01

Climate, e.g., air temperature and precipitation, differs strongly between urban and peripheral areas, which causes diverse life conditions for trees. In order to compare tree growth, we sampled in total 252 small-leaved lime trees (Tilia cordata Mill) in the city of Berlin along a gradient from the city center to the surroundings. By means of increment cores, we are able to trace back their growth for the last 50 to 100 years. A general growth trend can be shown by comparing recent basal area growth with estimates from extrapolating a growth function that had been fitted with growth data from earlier years. Estimating a linear model, we show that air temperature and precipitation significantly influence tree growth within the last 20 years. Under consideration of housing density, the results reveal that higher air temperature and less precipitation led to higher growth rates in high-dense areas, but not in low-dense areas. In addition, our data reveal a significantly higher variance of the ring width index in areas with medium housing density compared to low housing density, but no temporal trend. Transferring the results to forest stands, climate change is expected to lead to higher tree growth rates.

Urban climate modifies tree growth in Berlin

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dahlhausen, Jens; Rötzer, Thomas; Biber, Peter; Uhl, Enno; Pretzsch, Hans

2018-05-01

Climate, e.g., air temperature and precipitation, differs strongly between urban and peripheral areas, which causes diverse life conditions for trees. In order to compare tree growth, we sampled in total 252 small-leaved lime trees ( Tilia cordata Mill) in the city of Berlin along a gradient from the city center to the surroundings. By means of increment cores, we are able to trace back their growth for the last 50 to 100 years. A general growth trend can be shown by comparing recent basal area growth with estimates from extrapolating a growth function that had been fitted with growth data from earlier years. Estimating a linear model, we show that air temperature and precipitation significantly influence tree growth within the last 20 years. Under consideration of housing density, the results reveal that higher air temperature and less precipitation led to higher growth rates in high-dense areas, but not in low-dense areas. In addition, our data reveal a significantly higher variance of the ring width index in areas with medium housing density compared to low housing density, but no temporal trend. Transferring the results to forest stands, climate change is expected to lead to higher tree growth rates.

Urban climate modifies tree growth in Berlin.

PubMed

Dahlhausen, Jens; Rötzer, Thomas; Biber, Peter; Uhl, Enno; Pretzsch, Hans

2018-05-01

Climate, e.g., air temperature and precipitation, differs strongly between urban and peripheral areas, which causes diverse life conditions for trees. In order to compare tree growth, we sampled in total 252 small-leaved lime trees (Tilia cordata Mill) in the city of Berlin along a gradient from the city center to the surroundings. By means of increment cores, we are able to trace back their growth for the last 50 to 100 years. A general growth trend can be shown by comparing recent basal area growth with estimates from extrapolating a growth function that had been fitted with growth data from earlier years. Estimating a linear model, we show that air temperature and precipitation significantly influence tree growth within the last 20 years. Under consideration of housing density, the results reveal that higher air temperature and less precipitation led to higher growth rates in high-dense areas, but not in low-dense areas. In addition, our data reveal a significantly higher variance of the ring width index in areas with medium housing density compared to low housing density, but no temporal trend. Transferring the results to forest stands, climate change is expected to lead to higher tree growth rates.

CO2 dispersion modelling over Paris region within the CO2-MEGAPARIS project

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lac, C.; Donnelly, R. P.; Masson, V.; Pal, S.; Riette, S.; Donier, S.; Queguiner, S.; Tanguy, G.; Ammoura, L.; Xueref-Remy, I.

2013-05-01

Accurate simulation of the spatial and temporal variability of tracer mixing ratios over urban areas is a challenging and interesting task needed to be performed in order to utilise CO2 measurements in an atmospheric inverse framework and to better estimate regional CO2 fluxes. This study investigates the ability of a high-resolution model to simulate meteorological and CO2 fields around Paris agglomeration during the March field campaign of the CO2-MEGAPARIS project. The mesoscale atmospheric model Meso-NH, running at 2 km horizontal resolution, is coupled with the Town Energy Balance (TEB) urban canopy scheme and with the Interactions between Soil, Biosphere and Atmosphere CO2-reactive (ISBA-A-gs) surface scheme, allowing a full interaction of CO2 modelling between the surface and the atmosphere. Statistical scores show a good representation of the urban heat island (UHI) with stronger urban-rural contrasts on temperature at night than during the day by up to 7 °C. Boundary layer heights (BLH) have been evaluated on urban, suburban and rural sites during the campaign, and also on a suburban site over 1 yr. The diurnal cycles of the BLH are well captured, especially the onset time of the BLH increase and its growth rate in the morning, which are essential for tall tower CO2 observatories. The main discrepancy is a small negative bias over urban and suburban sites during nighttime (respectively 45 m and 5 m), leading to a few overestimations of nocturnal CO2 mixing ratios at suburban sites and a bias of +5 ppm. The diurnal CO2 cycle is generally well captured for all the sites. At the Eiffel tower, the observed spikes of CO2 maxima occur every morning exactly at the time at which the atmospheric boundary layer (ABL) growth reaches the measurement height. At suburban ground stations, CO2 measurements exhibit maxima at the beginning and at the end of each night, when the ABL is fully contracted, with a strong spatio-temporal variability. A sensitivity test without urban parameterisation removes the UHI and underpredicts nighttime BLH over urban and suburban sites, leading to large overestimation of nocturnal CO2 mixing ratio at the suburban sites (bias of +17 ppm). The agreement between observation and prediction for BLH and CO2 concentrations and urban-rural increments, both day and night, demonstrates the potential of using the urban mesoscale system in the context of inverse modelling

Climate change, urbanization, and optimal long-term floodplain protection

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhu, Tingju; Lund, Jay R.; Jenkins, Marion W.; Marques, Guilherme F.; Ritzema, Randall S.

2007-06-01

This paper examines levee-protected floodplains and economic aspects of adaptation to increasing long-term flood risk due to urbanization and climate change. The lower American River floodplain in the Sacramento, California, metropolitan area is used as an illustration to explore the course of optimal floodplain protection decisions over long periods. A dynamic programming model is developed and suggests economically desirable adaptations for floodplain levee systems given simultaneous changes in flood climate and urban land values. Economic engineering optimization analyses of several climate change and urbanization scenarios are made. Sensitivity analyses consider assumptions about future values of floodplain land and damageable property along with the discount rate. Methodological insights and policy lessons are drawn from modeling results, reflecting the joint effects and relationships that climate, economic costs, and regional economic growth can have on floodplain levee planning decisions.

Dietary habits and growth: an urban/rural comparison in the Andean region of Apurimac, Peru.

PubMed

Andrissi, Laura; Mottini, Giovanni; Sebastiani, Valeria; Boldrini, Laura; Giuliani, Alessandro

2013-01-01

The efficacy of interventions against children malnutrition crucially depends on a myriad of factors other than the simple food intake, that must be carefully studied in order to plan a balanced policy. The relation between dietary patterns and growth is at the very heart of the problem, especially in consideration of the fact that dietary pattern involves dimension other than pure caloric intake in its definition. In this work we investigated the relations between dietary pattern and growth comparing children from a rural and a urban area in Andean Peru, in terms of food habits and anthropometric variables to develop a model usable in context interventions against malnutrition. A sample of 159 children (80 from urban, 79 from rural area), aged from 4 to 120 months (72.7 ± 37.5 SD) was collected. The data were investigated by a multidimensional (principal component analysis followed by inferential approach) analysis to correlate the different hidden dimensions of both anthropometric and dietary observables. The correlation between these dimensions (in the form of principal components) were computed and contrasted with the effects of age and urban/rural environments. Caloric intake and growth were not linearly correlated in our data set. Moreover urban and rural environment were demonstrated to show very different patterns of both dietary and anthropometric variables pointing to the marked effect of dietary habits and demographic composition of the analyzed populations. The relation between malnutrition and overweight was at the same time demonstrated to follow a strict area-dependent distribution. We gave a proof-of-concept of the non-linear character of the relation between malnutrition (in terms of caloric intake) and growth, pointing to the need to calibrate interventions on food pattern and not only quantity to contrast malnutrition effects on growth. The education toward a balanced diet must go hand-in-hand with the intervention on caloric intake in order to prevent effects on health.

The use of an image registration technique in the urban growth monitoring

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Parada, N. D. J. (Principal Investigator); Foresti, C.; Deoliveira, M. D. L. N.; Niero, M.; Parreira, E. M. D. M. F.

1984-01-01

The use of an image registration program in the studies of urban growth is described. This program permits a quick identification of growing areas with the overlap of the same scene in different periods, and with the use of adequate filters. The city of Brasilia, Brazil, is selected for the test area. The dynamics of Brasilia urban growth are analyzed with the overlap of scenes dated June 1973, 1978 and 1983. The results showed the utilization of the image registration technique for the monitoring of dynamic urban growth.

The University of Utah Urban Undertaking (U4)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lin, J. C.; Mitchell, L.; Bares, R.; Mendoza, D. L.; Fasoli, B.; Bowling, D. R.; Garcia, M. A.; Buchert, M.; Pataki, D. E.; Crosman, E.; Horel, J.; Catharine, D.; Strong, C.; Ehleringer, J. R.

2015-12-01

The University of Utah is leading efforts to understand the spatiotemporal patterns in both emissions and concentrations of greenhouse gases (GHG) and criteria pollutants within urban systems. The urbanized corridor in northern Utah along the Wasatch Front, anchored by Salt Lake City, is undergoing rapid population growth that is projected to double in the next few decades. The Wasatch Front offers multiple advantages as an unique "urban laboratory": urban regions in multiple valleys spanning numerous orders of magnitude in population, each with unique airsheds, well-defined boundary conditions along deserts and tall mountains, strong signals during cold air pool events, seasonal contrasts in pollution, and a legacy of productive partnerships with local stakeholders and governments. We will show results from GHG measurements from the Wasatch Front, including one of the longest running continuous CO2 records in urban areas. Complementing this record are comprehensive meteorological observations and GHG/pollutant concentrations on mobile platforms: light rail, helicopter, and research vans. Variations in the GHG and pollutant observations illustrate human behavior and the resulting "urban metabolism" taking place on hourly, weekly, and seasonal cycles, resulting in a coupling between GHG and criteria pollutants. Moreover, these observations illustrate systematic spatial gradients in GHG and pollutant distributions between and within urban areas, traced to underlying gradients in population, energy use, terrain, and land use. Over decadal time scales the observations reveal growth of the "urban dome" due to expanding urban development. Using numerical models of the atmosphere, we further link concentrations of GHG and air quality-relevant pollutants to underlying emissions at the neighborhood scale as well as urban planning considerations.

Impact on air quality of measures to reduce CO2 emissions from road traffic in Basel, Rotterdam, Xi'an and Suzhou

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Keuken, M. P.; Jonkers, S.; Verhagen, H. L. M.; Perez, L.; Trüeb, S.; Okkerse, W.-J.; Liu, J.; Pan, X. C.; Zheng, L.; Wang, H.; Xu, R.; Sabel, C. E.

2014-12-01

Two traffic scenarios to reduce CO2 emissions from road traffic in two European cities (Basel and Rotterdam) and two Chinese cities (Xi'an and Suzhou) were evaluated in terms of their impact on air quality. The two scenarios, one modelling a reduction of private vehicle kilometres driven by 10% on urban streets and the other modelling the introduction of 50% electric-powered private vehicle kilometres on urban streets, were both compared to a scenario following “business-as-usual”: 2020-BAU. The annual average concentrations of NO2, PM2.5, PM10 and elemental carbon (EC) were modelled separately in busy street canyons, near urban motorways and in the remainder of the urban area. It was concluded that traffic-related CO2 emissions in 2020-BAU could be expected to remain at the levels of 2010 in Basel and Rotterdam, while in Xi'an and Suzhou to increase 30-50% due to growth in the traffic volume. Traffic-related CO2 emissions may be reduced by up to 5% and 25%, respectively using the first and second scenarios. Air pollution in the Chinese cities is a factor 3 to 5 higher than in the European cities in 2010 and 2020-BAU. The impact of both CO2 reduction scenarios on air quality in 2020-BAU is limited. In Europe, due to implementation of stringent emission standards in all sectors, air quality is expected to improve at both the urban background and near busy road traffic. In China, the regional background is expected to improve for EC, stabilize for PM2.5 and PM10, and decrease for NO2. The urban background follows this regional trend, while near busy road traffic, air pollution will remain elevated due to the considerable growth in traffic volume. A major constraint for modelling air quality in China is access to the input data required and lack of measurements at ground level for validation.

Factors associated with physical growth of children during the first two years of life in rural and urban areas of Vietnam.

PubMed

Nguyen, Huong Thu; Eriksson, Bo; Petzold, Max; Bondjers, Göran; Tran, Toan Khanh; Nguyen, Liem Thanh; Ascher, Henry

2013-09-25

Differences between urban and rural settings can be seen as a very important example of gaps between groups in a population. The aim of this paper is to compare an urban and a rural area regarding child growth during the first two years of life as related to mother's use of antenatal care (ANC), breastfeeding and reported symptoms of illness. The studies were conducted in two Health and Demographic Surveillance Sites, one rural and one urban in Hanoi, Vietnam. We found that children in the urban area grow faster than those in the rural area. There were statistical associations between growth and the education of the mother as well as household resources. There were positive correlations between the number of ANC visits and child growth. We also saw a positive association between growth and early initiation (first hour of life) of breastfeeding but the reported duration of exclusive breastfeeding was not statistically significantly related to growth. Reporting symptoms of illness was negatively correlated to growth, i.e. morbidity is hampering growth. All predictors of growth discussed in this article, ANC, breastfeeding and illness, are associated with social and economic conditions. To improve and maintain good conditions for child growth it is important to strengthen education of mothers and household resources particularly in the rural areas. Globalization and urbanization means obvious risks for increasing gaps not least between urban and rural areas. Improvement of the quality of programs for antenatal care, breastfeeding and integrated management of childhood illness are also needed in Vietnam.

Urban Growth Scenarios of a Future MEGA City: Case Study Ahmedabad

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lehner, A.; Kraus, V.; Steinnocher, K.

2016-06-01

The study of urban areas and their development focuses on cities, their physical and demographic expansion and the tensions and impacts that go along with urban growth. Especially in developing countries and emerging national economies like India, consistent and up to date information or other planning relevant data all too often is not available. With its Smart Cities Mission, the Indian government places great importance on the future developments of Indian urban areas and pays tribute to the large-scale rural to urban migration. The potentials of urban remote sensing and its contribution to urban planning are discussed and related to the Indian Smart Cities Mission. A case study is presented showing urban remote sensing based information products for the city of Ahmedabad. Resulting urban growth scenarios are presented, hotspots identified and future action alternatives proposed.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Aden, Nathaniel T.; Zheng, Nina; Fridley, David G.

Urbanization has re-shaped China's economy, society, and energy system. Between 1990 and 2007 China added 290 million new urban residents, bringing the total urbanization rate to 45%. This population adjustment spurred energy demand for construction of new buildings and infrastructure, as well as additional residential use as rural biomass was replaced with urban commercial energy services. Primary energy demand grew at an average annual rate of 10% between 2000 and 2007. Urbanization's effect on energy demand was compounded by the boom in domestic infrastructure investment, and in the export trade following World Trade Organization (WTO) accession in 2001. Industry energymore » consumption was most directly affected by this acceleration. Whereas industry comprised 32% of 2007 U.S. energy use, it accounted for 75% of China's 2007 energy consumption. Five sub-sectors accounted for 78% of China's industry energy use in 2007: iron and steel, energy extraction and processing, chemicals, cement, and non-ferrous metals. Ferrous metals alone accounted for 25% of industry and 18% of total primary energy use. The rapid growth of heavy industry has led China to become by far the world's largest producer of steel, cement, aluminum, and other energy-intensive commodities. However, the energy efficiency of heavy industrial production continues to lag world best practice levels. This study uses scenario analysis to quantify the impact of urbanization and trade on industrial and residential energy consumption from 2000 to 2025. The BAU scenario assumed 67% urbanization, frozen export amounts of heavy industrial products, and achievement of world best practices by 2025. The China Lightens Up (CLU) scenario assumed 55% urbanization, zero net exports of heavy industrial products, and more aggressive efficiency improvements by 2025. The five dominant industry sub-sectors were modeled in both scenarios using a LEAP energy end-use accounting model. The results of this study show that a CLU-style development path would avoid 430 million tonnes coal-equivalent energy use by 2025. More than 60% of these energy savings would come from reduced activity and production levels. In carbon terms, this would amount to more than a billion-tonne reduction of energy-related carbon emissions compared with the BAU scenario in 2025, though the absolute level of emissions rises in both scenarios. Aside from the energy and carbon savings related to CLU scenario development, this study showed impending saturation effects in commercial construction, urban appliance ownership, and fertilizer application. The implication of these findings is that urbanization will have a direct impact on future energy use and emissions - policies to guide urban growth can play a central role in China's efforts to mitigate emissions growth.« less

The Changing Face of the of Former Soviet Cities: Elucidated by Remote Sensing and Machine Learning Techniques

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Poghosyan, Armen

2017-04-01

Despite remote sensing of urbanization emerged as a powerful tool to acquire critical knowledge about urban growth and its effects on global environmental change, human-environment interface as well as environmentally sustainable urban development, there is lack of studies utilizing remote sensing techniques to investigate urbanization trends in the Post-Soviet states. The unique challenges accompanying the urbanization in the Post-Soviet republics combined with the expected robust urban growth in developing countries over the next several decades highlight the critical need for a quantitative assessment of the urban dynamics in the former Soviet states as they navigate towards a free market democracy. This study uses total of 32 Level-1 precision terrain corrected (L1T) Landsat scenes with 30-m resolution as well as further auxiliary population and economic data for ten cities distributed in nine former Soviet republics to quantify the urbanization patterns in the Post-Soviet region. Land cover in each urban center of this study was classified by using Support Vector Machine (SVM) learning algorithm with overall accuracies ranging from 87 % to 97 % for 29 classification maps over three time steps during the past twenty-five years in order to estimate quantities, trends and drivers of urban growth in the study area. The results demonstrated several spatial and temporal urbanization patterns observed across the Post-Soviet states and based on urban expansion rates the cities can be divided into two groups, fast growing and slow growing urban centers. The relatively fast-growing urban centers have an average urban expansion rate of about 2.8 % per year, whereas the slow growing cities have an average urban expansion rate of about 1.0 % per year. The total area of new land converted to urban environment ranged from as low as 26 km2 to as high as 780 km2 for the ten cities over the 1990 - 2015 period, while the overall urban land increase ranged from 11.3 % to 96.6 % over the study period. Thus, after some initial developments following the breakup of the Soviet Union the growth rate in the urban core decreased gradually constrained by the availability of suitable land, while the urban expansion rates in the outer peripheral region were characterized with a robust urban growth rates across the study area. The rapid urban expansion observed in the former Soviet cities impairs environmentally sustainable characteristics such as compactness, better integrated land uses with abundant parks and greenbelts, low social polarization, as well as reliable public transit systems in some urban centers after the disintegration of the Soviet Union. The urban expansion rates considerably outpaced the urban population growth rates in all ten cities during the last quarter of a century, thus indicating that the urban growth is becoming more expansive with all cities experiencing significant decreases in overall urban population densities.

A physically based analytical spatial air temperature and humidity model

Treesearch

Yang Yang; Theodore A. Endreny; David J. Nowak

2013-01-01

Spatial variation of urban surface air temperature and humidity influences human thermal comfort, the settling rate of atmospheric pollutants, and plant physiology and growth. Given the lack of observations, we developed a Physically based Analytical Spatial Air Temperature and Humidity (PASATH) model. The PASATH model calculates spatial solar radiation and heat...

Local Politics and Portfolio Management Models: National Reform Ideas and Local Control

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Bulkley, Katrina E.; Henig, Jeffrey R.

2015-01-01

Amid the growth of charter schools, autonomous schools, and private management organizations, an increasing number of urban districts are moving toward a portfolio management model (PMM). In a PMM, the district central office oversees schools that operate under a variety of governance models. The expansion of PMMs raises questions about local…

HYDROLOGIC MODELING OF AN EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA WATERSHED WITH NEXRAD AND RAIN GAUGE DATA

EPA Science Inventory

This paper applies the Soil Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) to model the hydrology in the Pocono Creek watershed located in Monroe County, Pa. The calibrated model will be used in a subsequent study to examine the impact of population growth and rapid urbanization in the watershed o...

Modeling the Impacts of Hydromodification (Conference paper)

EPA Science Inventory

Hydromodification is caused by anthropogenic activities driven by human population growth and resource consumption that alter watershed hydrologic responses. These activities include urbanization, channel modification, flow regulation by water impoundments, water withdrawal, and...

NE Ohio Urban Growth Monitoring and Modeling Prototype. Revised

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Siebert, Loren; Klosterman, Richard E.

2001-01-01

At the University of Akron, Dr. Loren Siebert, Dr. Richard Klosterman, and their graduate research assistants (Jung-Wook Kim, Mohammed Hoque, Aziza Parveen, and Ben Stabler) worked on the integration of remote sensing and GIs-based planning support systems. The primary goal of the project was to develop methods that use remote sensing land cover mapping and GIs-based modeling to monitor and project urban growth and farmland loss in northeast Ohio. Another research goal has been to use only GIS data that are accessible via the World Wide Web, to determine whether Ohio's small counties and townships that do not currently have parcel-level GIS systems can apply these techniques. The project was jointly funded by NASA and USGS OhioView grants during the 2000-2001 academic year; the work is now being continued under a USGS grant.

An allometric scaling relation based on logistic growth of cities

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chen, Yanguang

2014-08-01

The relationships between urban area and population size have been empirically demonstrated to follow the scaling law of allometric growth. This allometric scaling is based on exponential growth of city size and can be termed "exponential allometry", which is associated with the concepts of fractals. However, both city population and urban area comply with the course of logistic growth rather than exponential growth. In this paper, I will present a new allometric scaling based on logistic growth to solve the abovementioned problem. The logistic growth is a process of replacement dynamics. Defining a pair of replacement quotients as new measurements, which are functions of urban area and population, we can derive an allometric scaling relation from the logistic processes of urban growth, which can be termed "logistic allometry". The exponential allometric relation between urban area and population is the approximate expression of the logistic allometric equation when the city size is not large enough. The proper range of the allometric scaling exponent value is reconsidered through the logistic process. Then, a medium-sized city of Henan Province, China, is employed as an example to validate the new allometric relation. The logistic allometry is helpful for further understanding the fractal property and self-organized process of urban evolution in the right perspective.

Variability in urban soils influences the health and growth of native tree seedlings

Treesearch

Clara C. Pregitzer; Nancy F. Sonti; Richard A. Hallett

2016-01-01

Reforesting degraded urban landscapes is important due to the many benefits urban forests provide. Urban soils are highly variable, yet little is known about how this variability in urban soils influences tree seedling performance and survival. We conducted a greenhouse study to assess health, growth, and survival of four native tree species growing in native glacial...

Comments on "Complementarity and Conflict among Population and Other Policies: Specifying an Economic-Demographic Model for a Developing Country".

PubMed

Khan, A H

1993-01-01

The critique of Mariano's economic-demographic model of population and other policies for developing countries cites the value of such a detailed model for developing a family planning policy within the context of macroeconomic government policies. The model points out the impact on fertility of effective family planning policies and increased educational expenditures. Work force participation and reduced fertility is also affected by increased female educational levels, which in combination with increasing health expenditures for children reduces infant mortality as a means of further reducing fertility. Savings and investment increase with reduced fertility and reduce population growth. Per capital income increases with higher investment and lower population growth; the effect is to increase resource availability for improvements in health and education. Rural-urban migration must be balanced by policies in urban areas supporting industrial investment and policies in rural areas for increased educational and health expenditures. Changes in the structure of demand affect the structure of the economy, which in turn affects exports. The paper contributes to a model of simultaneous equations for estimating the linkages between demography and economics factors already known. The model combines the Chicago-Columbia model and the Pennsylvania model but ignores biological variables such as those identified by Behrman and Wolfe as women's health status, breast feeding, and nutritional level. International migration may be important for some countries such as the Philippines and Thailand. Extended families may be an important variable excluded from the model. Criticism is directed to the measure of rural-urban migration which does not separate out by age those migrating between countries. The assumption is that international migrants only come from urban areas. In Bangladesh the man-land ratio was found to be important. Changing definitions of literacy may impact on the model outcomes. Cost of schooling should be considered. Regardless of the deficits in the factors included, the model is still commended.

Microsimulation of household and firm behaviors : coupled models of land use and travel demand in Austin, Texas

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2007-12-01

Households and firms are key drivers of urban growth, yet models for forecasting travel demand often : ignore their dynamic evolution and several key decision processes. An understanding of household and : firm behavior over time is critical in antic...

Monitoring and Predicting Land-use Changes and the Hydrology of the Urbanized Paochiao Watershed in Taiwan Using Remote Sensing Data, Urban Growth Models and a Hydrological Model.

PubMed

Lin, Yu-Pin; Lin, Yun-Bin; Wang, Yen-Tan; Hong, Nien-Ming

2008-02-04

Monitoring and simulating urban sprawl and its effects on land-use patterns andhydrological processes in urbanized watersheds are essential in land-use and waterresourceplanning and management. This study applies a novel framework to the urbangrowth model Slope, Land use, Excluded land, Urban extent, Transportation, andHillshading (SLEUTH) and land-use change with the Conversion of Land use and itsEffects (CLUE-s) model using historical SPOT images to predict urban sprawl in thePaochiao watershed in Taipei County, Taiwan. The historical and predicted land-use datawas input into Patch Analyst to obtain landscape metrics. This data was also input to theGeneralized Watershed Loading Function (GWLF) model to analyze the effects of futureurban sprawl on the land-use patterns and watershed hydrology. The landscape metrics ofthe historical SPOT images show that land-use patterns changed between 1990-2000. TheSLEUTH model accurately simulated historical land-use patterns and urban sprawl in thePaochiao watershed, and simulated future clustered land-use patterns (2001-2025). TheCLUE-s model also simulated land-use patterns for the same period and yielded historical trends in the metrics of land-use patterns. The land-use patterns predicted by the SLEUTHand CLUE-s models show the significant impact urban sprawl will have on land-usepatterns in the Paochiao watershed. The historical and predicted land-use patterns in thewatershed tended to fragment, had regular shapes and interspersion patterns, but wererelatively less isolated in 2001-2025 and less interspersed from 2005-2025 compared withland-use pattern in 1990. During the study, the variability and magnitude of hydrologicalcomponents based on the historical and predicted land-use patterns were cumulativelyaffected by urban sprawl in the watershed; specifically, surface runoff increasedsignificantly by 22.0% and baseflow decreased by 18.0% during 1990-2025. The proposedapproach is an effective means of enhancing land-use monitoring and management ofurbanized watersheds.

The influence of urban development and social mobility on socioeconomic level: The application of GIS on urban ecosystems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Suhaili Mansor, Nur; Zulhaidi Mohd Shafri, Helmi; Mansor, Shattri; Paradhan, Biswajeet

2014-06-01

Specifically, the integration between social sciences and natural science are fundamental in our understanding of the economic, social and technological transformations that have drastically changed the society. This study will be based on the municipality of Sungai Petani, Kedah as it has been most influenced by urbanization and urban development. Urban development in Sungai Petani is closely associated with a tremendous increase in demand for land, which is highly related to population growth, human movement and their social mobility. The qualitative case study taken will rely on the visual interpretation technique that would allow the researcher to develop a map of urban changes detection. The potential application of GIS information to estimate socioeconomic indicators and the modelling of socio-economic activities that are explored in this study is hoped to increase further our understanding of the impacts of development and urbanization on social life.

Some structural aspects of urbanization in Ethiopia.

PubMed

Rafiq, M; Hailemariam, A

1987-07-01

This article studies the emerging patterns of urbanization in Ethiopia. Over the period from 1967-1984, a number of structural changes have occurred which are likely to play a dominant role in the future urban growth in Ethiopia. In spite of its long history of settled population, Ethiopia did not witness sustained growth of urban centers. Ethiopia is 1 of the least urbanized areas in the Third World. A 3rd aspect of urbanization in Ethiopia is the wide range of regional differentials in the level of urbanization. Most of the urban population is concentrated in 2 administrative regions--Shoa and Eritrea. A more balanced urban growth may, inter alia, involve a better spread in terms of higher education, industrialization, provision of health and social services, and the development of communication and commercial infrastructure. Another striking feature of urbanization in Ethiopia is that growth has not been disproportionately concentrated in the largest urban centers. The largest urban centers have not assumed an inordinately higher level of primacy. The basic form of the curve depicting the relationship between the size of a locality and its rank has remained unchanged over the period. The post-revolution land reforms and the new socioeconomic structure emerging from reorganization of the society appear to have a rural-urban migration inhibiting effect. Some of the country's regional differentials may be associated with environmental factors.

Chronological evaluation of urban growth and area expansion in Aguascalientes, Mexico using remotely sensed and ancillary mapped data

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Falquier, Leticia G.; Quattrochi, Dale A.; Pelletier, Ramona E.

1990-01-01

The study describes some efforts to assist the mapping procedure of Mexican towns and cities by focusing on the analysis of urban changes that have occurred in the city of Aguascalientes. To evaluate urban growth trends in Aguascalientes, historic maps of land cover, aerial photography, and SPOT data were reviewed between the period of 1857 and 1988 to determine urban boundaries. Additional analyses focused on identifying the extent and pattern of growth in reference to urban development plans initiated in 1978, and on assessing the impact of relocating people and industry after the Mexico City earthquake. Results from the study indicate a steady growth in areal expansion and population in the Aguascalientes area between 1978 and 1988.

Tampa Bay Integrated Science Pilot Study: Baseline mapping, land surface dynamics and predictive modeling, and hazards vulnerability studies

USGS Publications Warehouse

Crane, Michael; Yates, Kimberly; Clark, Robert; Gesch, Dean; Hess, Kurt; Koehmstedt, John; Milbert, Dennis; Parker, Bruce; Sechrist, Dan; Tilley, Janet; Wilson, Robert

2001-01-01

Tampa Bay and its environs have experienced phenomenal urban growth and significant changes in land cover and land-use practices over the past 50 years. This trend is expected to continue, with the impact of human activity broadening geographically and intensifying throughout the region.One of the immediate impacts of urban growth is the creation of additional impervious surfaces, which in turn, generate increased urban runoff that contributes to higher levels of nutrient loading in water bodies throughout the area.To better understand these and other anthropogenic affects on the ecology of the natural environment of the region, this component of the Tampa Bay Pilot Study took a broad basin-wide view. This regional view was intended to provide geographic and temporal context for the smaller intensely studied sample field site locations within the estuarine environment.

Morbidity Forecast in Cities: A Study of Urban Air Pollution and Respiratory Diseases in the Metropolitan Region of Curitiba, Brazil.

PubMed

de Souza, Fabio Teodoro

2018-05-29

In the last two decades, urbanization has intensified, and in Brazil, about 90% of the population now lives in urban centers. Atmospheric patterns have changed owing to the high growth rate of cities, with negative consequences for public health. This research aims to elucidate the spatial patterns of air pollution and respiratory diseases. A data-based model to aid local urban management to improve public health policies concerning air pollution is described. An example of data preparation and multivariate analysis with inventories from different cities in the Metropolitan Region of Curitiba was studied. A predictive model with outstanding accuracy in prediction of outbreaks was developed. Preliminary results describe relevant relations among morbidity scales, air pollution levels, and atmospheric seasonal patterns. The knowledge gathered here contributes to the debate on social issues and public policies. Moreover, the results of this smaller scale study can be extended to megacities.

Impacts of Transit-Oriented Compact-Growth on Air Pollutant Concentrations and Exposures in the Tampa Region

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2018-03-31

Amy L. Stuart (ORCID # 0000-0003-1229-493) The objective of this study was to model the potential impacts of alternative transit-oriented urban design scenarios on community exposures to roadway air pollution. We used a modeling framework developed p...

Land-use planning for nearshore ecosystem services—the Puget Sound Ecosystem Portfolio Model

USGS Publications Warehouse

Byrd, Kristin

2011-01-01

The 2,500 miles of shoreline and nearshore areas of Puget Sound, Washington, provide multiple benefits to people—"ecosystem services"—including important fishing, shellfishing, and recreation industries. To help resource managers plan for expected growth in coming decades, the U.S. Geological Survey Western Geographic Science Center has developed the Puget Sound Ecosystem Portfolio Model (PSEPM). Scenarios of urban growth and shoreline modifications serve as model inputs to develop alternative futures of important nearshore features such as water quality and beach habitats. Model results will support regional long-term planning decisions for the Puget Sound region.

Increasing Dengue Incidence in Singapore over the Past 40 Years: Population Growth, Climate and Mobility

PubMed Central

Struchiner, Claudio Jose; Rocklöv, Joacim; Wilder-Smith, Annelies; Massad, Eduardo

2015-01-01

In Singapore, the frequency and magnitude of dengue epidemics have increased significantly over the past 40 years. It is important to understand the main drivers for the rapid increase in dengue incidence. We studied the relative contributions of putative drivers for the rise of dengue in Singapore: population growth, climate parameters and international air passenger arrivals from dengue endemic countries, for the time period of 1974 until 2011. We used multivariable Poisson regression models with the following predictors: Annual Population Size; Aedes Premises Index; Mean Annual Temperature; Minimum and Maximum Temperature Recorded in each year; Annual Precipitation and Annual Number of Air Passengers arriving from dengue-endemic South-East Asia to Singapore. The relative risk (RR) of the increase in dengue incidence due to population growth over the study period was 42.7, while the climate variables (mean and minimum temperature) together explained an RR of 7.1 (RR defined as risk at the end of the time period relative to the beginning and goodness of fit associated with the model leading to these estimates assessed by pseudo-R2 equal to 0.83). Estimating the extent of the contribution of these individual factors on the increasing dengue incidence, we found that population growth contributed to 86% while the residual 14% was explained by increase in temperature. We found no correlation with incoming air passenger arrivals into Singapore from dengue endemic countries. Our findings have significant implications for predicting future trends of the dengue epidemics given the rapid urbanization with population growth in many dengue endemic countries. It is time for policy-makers and the scientific community alike to pay more attention to the negative impact of urbanization and urban climate on diseases such as dengue. PMID:26322517

Increasing Dengue Incidence in Singapore over the Past 40 Years: Population Growth, Climate and Mobility.

PubMed

Struchiner, Claudio Jose; Rocklöv, Joacim; Wilder-Smith, Annelies; Massad, Eduardo

2015-01-01

In Singapore, the frequency and magnitude of dengue epidemics have increased significantly over the past 40 years. It is important to understand the main drivers for the rapid increase in dengue incidence. We studied the relative contributions of putative drivers for the rise of dengue in Singapore: population growth, climate parameters and international air passenger arrivals from dengue endemic countries, for the time period of 1974 until 2011. We used multivariable Poisson regression models with the following predictors: Annual Population Size; Aedes Premises Index; Mean Annual Temperature; Minimum and Maximum Temperature Recorded in each year; Annual Precipitation and Annual Number of Air Passengers arriving from dengue-endemic South-East Asia to Singapore. The relative risk (RR) of the increase in dengue incidence due to population growth over the study period was 42.7, while the climate variables (mean and minimum temperature) together explained an RR of 7.1 (RR defined as risk at the end of the time period relative to the beginning and goodness of fit associated with the model leading to these estimates assessed by pseudo-R2 equal to 0.83). Estimating the extent of the contribution of these individual factors on the increasing dengue incidence, we found that population growth contributed to 86% while the residual 14% was explained by increase in temperature. We found no correlation with incoming air passenger arrivals into Singapore from dengue endemic countries. Our findings have significant implications for predicting future trends of the dengue epidemics given the rapid urbanization with population growth in many dengue endemic countries. It is time for policy-makers and the scientific community alike to pay more attention to the negative impact of urbanization and urban climate on diseases such as dengue.

Urban Detection, Delimitation and Morphology: Comparative Analysis of Selective "MEGACITIES"

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Alhaddad, B.; Arellano, B. E.; Roca, J.

2012-08-01

Over the last 50 years, the world has faced an impressive growth of urban population. The walled city, close to the outside, an "island"for economic activities and population density within the rural land, has led to the spread of urban life and urban networks in almost all the territory. There was, as said Margalef (1999), "a topological inversion of the landscape". The "urban" has gone from being an island in the ocean of rural land vastness, to represent the totally of the space in which are inserted natural and rural "systems". New phenomena such as the fall of the fordist model of production, the spread of urbanization known as urban sprawl, and the change of scale of the metropolis, covering increasingly large regions, called "megalopolis" (Gottmann, 1961), have characterized the century. However there are no rigorous databases capable of measuring and evaluating the phenomenon of megacities and in general the process of urbanization in the contemporary world. The aim of this paper is to detect, identify and analyze the morphology of the megacities through remote sensing instruments as well as various indicators of landscape. To understand the structure of these heterogeneous landscapes called megacities, land consumption and spatial complexity needs to be quantified accurately. Remote sensing might be helpful in evaluating how the different land covers shape urban megaregions. The morphological landscape analysis allows establishing the analogies and the differences between patterns of cities and studying the symmetry, growth direction, linearity, complexity and compactness of the urban form. The main objective of this paper is to develop a new methodology to detect urbanized land of some megacities around the world (Tokyo, Mexico, Chicago, New York, London, Moscow, Sao Paulo and Shanghai) using Landsat 7 images.

Impacts of future urban expansion on summer climate and heat-related human health in eastern China.

PubMed

Cao, Qian; Yu, Deyong; Georgescu, Matei; Wu, Jianguo; Wang, Wei

2018-03-01

China is the largest and most rapidly urbanizing nation in the world, and is projected to add an additional 200 million city dwellers by the end of 2030. While this rapid urbanization will lead to vast expansion of built-up areas, the possible climate effect and associated human health impact remain poorly understood. Using a coupled urban-atmospheric model, we first examine potential effects of three urban expansion scenarios to 2030 on summer climate in eastern China. Our simulations indicate extensive warming up to 5°C, 3°C, and 2°C in regard to low- (>0%), high- (>75%), and 100% probability urban growth scenarios, respectively. The partitioning of available energy largely explains the changes in 2-m air temperatures, and increased sensible heat flux with higher roughness length of the underlying urban surface is responsible for the increase of nighttime planetary boundary layer height. In the extreme case (the low-probability expansion pathway), the agglomeration of impervious surfaces substantially reduces low-level atmospheric moisture, consequently resulting in large-scale precipitation reduction. However, the effect of near-surface warming far exceeds that of moisture reduction and imposes non-negligible thermal loads on urban residents. Our study, using a scenario-based approach that accounts for the full range of urban growth uncertainty by 2030, helps better evaluate possible regional climate effects and associated human health outcomes in the most rapidly urbanizing areas of China, and has practical implications for the development of sustainable urban regions that are resilient to changes in both mean and extreme conditions. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Global demographic trends and future carbon emissions.

PubMed

O'Neill, Brian C; Dalton, Michael; Fuchs, Regina; Jiang, Leiwen; Pachauri, Shonali; Zigova, Katarina

2010-10-12

Substantial changes in population size, age structure, and urbanization are expected in many parts of the world this century. Although such changes can affect energy use and greenhouse gas emissions, emissions scenario analyses have either left them out or treated them in a fragmentary or overly simplified manner. We carry out a comprehensive assessment of the implications of demographic change for global emissions of carbon dioxide. Using an energy-economic growth model that accounts for a range of demographic dynamics, we show that slowing population growth could provide 16-29% of the emissions reductions suggested to be necessary by 2050 to avoid dangerous climate change. We also find that aging and urbanization can substantially influence emissions in particular world regions.

Modelling multiple threats to water security in the Peruvian Amazon using the WaterWorld policy support system

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

van Soesbergen, A. J. J.; Mulligan, M.

2014-01-01

This paper describes the application of WaterWorld (www.policysupport.org/waterworld) to the Peruvian Amazon, an area that is increasingly under pressure from deforestation and water pollution as a result of population growth, rural-to-urban migration and oil and gas extraction, potentially impacting both water quantity and water quality. By applying single and combined plausible scenarios of climate change, deforestation around existing and planned roads, population growth and rural-urban migration, mining and oil and gas exploitation, we explore the potential combined impacts of these multiple changes on water resources in the Peruvian Amazon.

Quantification of urban structure on building block level utilizing multisensoral remote sensing data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wurm, Michael; Taubenböck, Hannes; Dech, Stefan

2010-10-01

Dynamics of urban environments are a challenge to a sustainable development. Urban areas promise wealth, realization of individual dreams and power. Hence, many cities are characterized by a population growth as well as physical development. Traditional, visual mapping and updating of urban structure information of cities is a very laborious and cost-intensive task, especially for large urban areas. For this purpose, we developed a workflow for the extraction of the relevant information by means of object-based image classification. In this manner, multisensoral remote sensing data has been analyzed in terms of very high resolution optical satellite imagery together with height information by a digital surface model to retrieve a detailed 3D city model with the relevant land-use / land-cover information. This information has been aggregated on the level of the building block to describe the urban structure by physical indicators. A comparison between the indicators derived by the classification and a reference classification has been accomplished to show the correlation between the individual indicators and a reference classification of urban structure types. The indicators have been used to apply a cluster analysis to group the individual blocks into similar clusters.

"A minimum of urbanism and a maximum of ruralism": the Cuban experience.

PubMed

Gugler, J

1980-01-01

The case of Cuba provides social scientists with reasonably good information on urbanization policies and their implementation in 1 developing country committed to socialism. The demographic context is considered, and Cuban efforts to eliminate the rural-urban contradiction and to redefine the role of Havana are described. The impact of these policies is analyzed in terms of available data on urbanization patterns since January 1959 when the revolutionaries marched into Havana. Prerevolutionary urbanization trends are considered. Fertility in Cuba has declined simultaneously with mortality and even more rapidly. Projections assume a 1.85% annual growth rate, resulting in a population of nearly 15 million by the year 2000. Any estimate regarding the future trend in population growth must depend on prognosis of general living conditions and of specific government policies regarding contraception, abortion, female labor force participation, and child care facilities. If population growth in Cuba has been substantial, but less dramatic than that of many other developing countries, urban growth presents a similar picture. Cuba's highest rate of growth of the population living in urban centers with a population over 20,000, in any intercensal period during the 20th century, was 4.1%/year for 1943-1953. It dropped to 3.0% in the 1953-1970 period. Government policies achieved a measure of success in stemming the tide of rural-urban migration, but the aims of the revolutionary leadership went further. The objective was for urban dwellers to be involved in agriculture, and the living standards of the rural population were to be raised to approximate those of city dwellers. The goal of "urbanizing" the countryside found expression in a program designed to construct new small towns which could more easily be provided with services. A slowdown in the growth of Havana, and the concomitant weakening of its dominant position, was intended by the revolutionary leadership. Offical policies have been enunciated that connect the reduction in the dominance of Havana with the slowdown in urban growth and the urbanization of the countryside. Evidence is presented which suggests achievements along all of these dimensions, but by 1970 they were, as yet, quite limited.

Urban compaction or dispersion? An air quality modelling study

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Martins, Helena

2012-07-01

Urban sprawl is altering the landscape, with current trends pointing to further changes in land use that will, in turn, lead to changes in population, energy consumption, atmospheric emissions and air quality. Urban planners have debated on the most sustainable urban structure, with arguments in favour and against urban compaction and dispersion. However, it is clear that other areas of expertise have to be involved. Urban air quality and human exposure to atmospheric pollutants as indicators of urban sustainability can contribute to the discussion, namely through the study of the relation between urban structure and air quality. This paper addresses the issue by analysing the impacts of alternative urban growth patterns on the air quality of Porto urban region in Portugal, through a 1-year simulation with the MM5-CAMx modelling system. This region has been experiencing one of the highest European rates of urban sprawl, and at the same time presents a poor air quality. As part of the modelling system setup, a sensitivity study was conducted regarding different land use datasets and spatial distribution of emissions. Two urban development scenarios were defined, SPRAWL and COMPACT, together with their new land use and emission datasets; then meteorological and air quality simulations were performed. Results reveal that SPRAWL land use changes resulted in an average temperature increase of 0.4 °C, with local increases reaching as high as 1.5 °C. SPRAWL results also show an aggravation of PM10 annual average values and an increase in the exceedances to the daily limit value. For ozone, differences between scenarios were smaller, with SPRAWL presenting larger concentration differences than COMPACT. Finally, despite the higher concentrations found in SPRAWL, population exposure to the pollutants is higher for COMPACT because more inhabitants are found in areas of highest concentration levels.

Gifted and at Risk: A Cross-District Comparison of Gifted Student Growth and Solutions for Urban Schools

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Kurt, Layla J.; Chenault, Krystel H.

2017-01-01

In this study, the researchers highlight differences in district level value-added growth data of gifted students in urban and suburban districts, as categorized by the Ohio Department of Education. In addition to analyzing the difference between the academic growth of urban and suburban gifted students, the researchers sought to synthesize…

Environmental Sustainability and Effects on Urban Micro Region using Agent-Based Modeling of Urbanisation in Select Major Indian Cities

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Aithal, B. H.

2015-12-01

Abstract: Urbanisation has gained momentum with globalization in India. Policy decisions to set up commercial, industrial hubs have fuelled large scale migration, added with population upsurge has contributed to the fast growing urban region that needs to be monitored in order to design sustainable urban cities. Unplanned urbanization have resulted in the growth of peri-urban region referred to as urban sprawl, are often devoid of basic amenities and infrastructure leading to large scale environmental problems that are evident. Remote sensing data acquired through space borne sensors at regular interval helps in understanding urban dynamics aided by Geoinformatics which has proved very effective in mapping and monitoring for sustainable urban planning. Cellular automata (CA) is a robust approach for the spatially explicit simulation of land-use land cover dynamics. CA uses rules, states, conditions that are vital factors in modelling urbanisation. This communication effectively introduces simulation assistances of CA with the agent based modelling supported by its fuzzy characteristics and weightages through analytical hierarchal process (AHP). This has been done considering perceived agents such as industries, natural resource etc. Respective agent's role in development of a particular regions into an urban area has been examined with weights and its influence of each of these agents based on its characteristics functions. Validation was performed obtaining a high kappa coefficient indicating the quality and the allocation performance of the model & validity of the model to predict future projections. The prediction using the proposed model was performed for 2030. Further environmental sustainability of each of these cities are explored such as water features, environment, greenhouse gas emissions, effects on human human health etc., Modeling suggests trend of various land use classes transformation with the spurt in urban expansions based on specific regions and policies providing a visual spatial information to both urban planners and city managers. Further environmental sustainability assessment indicates dwindling natural resources and increase in thermal discomfort to the living population thereby indicating need for balanced and planned development.

Impacts of Combined Cooling, Heating and Power Systems, and Rainwater Harvesting on Water Demand, Carbon Dioxide, and NOx Emissions for Atlanta.

PubMed

James, Jean-Ann; Sung, Sangwoo; Jeong, Hyunju; Broesicke, Osvaldo A; French, Steven P; Li, Duo; Crittenden, John C

2018-01-02

The purpose of this study is to explore the potential water, CO 2 and NO x emission, and cost savings that the deployment of decentralized water and energy technologies within two urban growth scenarios can achieve. We assess the effectiveness of urban growth, technological, and political strategies to reduce these burdens in the 13-county Atlanta metropolitan region. The urban growth between 2005 and 2030 was modeled for a business as usual (BAU) scenario and a more compact growth (MCG) scenario. We considered combined cooling, heating and power (CCHP) systems using microturbines for our decentralized energy technology and rooftop rainwater harvesting and low flow fixtures for the decentralized water technologies. Decentralized water and energy technologies had more of an impact in reducing the CO 2 and NO x emissions and water withdrawal and consumption than an MCG growth scenario (which does not consider energy for transit). Decentralized energy can reduce the CO 2 and NO x emissions by 8% and 63%, respectively. Decentralized energy and water technologies can reduce the water withdrawal and consumption in the MCG scenario by 49% and 50% respectively. Installing CCHP systems on both the existing and new building stocks with a net metering policy could reduce the CO 2 , NO x , and water consumption by 50%, 90%, and 75% respectively.

Introduction: population migration and urbanization in developing countries.

PubMed

Kojima, R

1996-12-01

This introductory article discusses the correlation between migration and rapid urbanization and growth in the largest cities of the developing world. The topics include the characteristics of urbanization, government policies toward population migration, the change in absolute size of the rural population, and the problems of maintaining megacities. Other articles in this special issue are devoted to urbanization patterns in China, South Africa, Iran, Korea and Taiwan as newly industrialized economies (NIEs), informal sectors in the Philippines and Thailand, and low-income settlements in Bogota, Colombia, and India. It is argued that increased urbanization is produced by natural population growth, the expansion of the urban administrative area, and the in-migration from rural areas. A comparison of urbanization rates of countries by per capita gross national product (GNP) reveals that countries with per capita GNP of under US$2000 have urbanization rates of 10-60%. Rates are under 30% in Africa, the Middle East, South Asia, China, and Indonesia. Rapid urbanization appears to follow the economic growth curve. The rate of urbanization in Latin America is high enough to be comparable to urbanization in Europe and the US. Taiwan and Korea have high rates of urbanization that surpass the rate of industrialization. Thailand and Malaysia have low rates of urbanization compared to the size of their per capita GNP. Urbanization rates under 20% occur in countries without economic development. Rates between 20% and 50% occur in countries with or without industrialization. East Asian urbanization is progressing along with industrialization. Africa and the Middle East have urbanization without industrialization. In 1990 there were 20 developing countries and 5 developed countries with populations over 5 million. In 10 of 87 developing countries rural population declined in absolute size. The author identifies and discusses four patterns of urban growth.

Role of neighbourhoods in child growth and development: does 'place' matter?

PubMed

Avan, Bilal Iqbal; Kirkwood, Betty

2010-07-01

It is estimated that at least 200 million children--mostly from developing countries--suffer from developmental delays. The study aims to contribute to an understanding of the contextual environment in which a child grows and develops in such setup; and in particular to evaluate the relative contributions of socio-economic status and rural-urban neighbourhoods on growth and psychomotor development. A cross-sectional study was conducted from May to November 2002 in 15 rural and 11 urban communities of Sindh, Pakistan. 1,244 children aged less than 3 years were assessed via home visits using Bayley's Infant Developmental Scale for psychomotor development, anthropometry and a socio-economic and demographic questionnaire. A socio-economic index was created using principal component analysis, and the study hypotheses explored through hierarchical linear modelling. We found that sub-optimal growth and development were prevalent among the study's children. Overall the mean psychomotor development (PD) index was 96.0 (SD 16.7), with 23% assessed as having delayed development, and undernourished with 39.8% stunted, 30.9% underweight and 18.1% wasted. Lower socio-economic status and living in a rural rather than urban neighbourhood were all found to have strong associations with lower psychomotor scores and with undernutrition. Rural-urban differences in undernutrition were explained by the lower socio-economic status of families in rural areas. By contrast, rural-urban differences in psychomotor scores remained strong even after controlling for differences in socio-economic status. It was estimated that rural residence accounted for 28% of cases of delayed psychomotor development among study children. Improvements in socio-economic status are vital to achieve optimal growth and development during early childhood. The study draws attention to the importance of taking heed of contextual needs, especially relating to differences between rural and urban neighbourhoods, in the formulation and implementation of early child care and development interventions. Copyright (c) 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

[Trends and characteristics of urbanization in the Third World, the day before yesterday to the day after tomorrow (1900-2025)].

PubMed

Bairoch, P

1983-01-01

This article reviews the history of Third World urbanization, examines the evolution of the urban population from 1970-80 based on the 1st results of the 1980 round of censuses, and examines the prospects for urbanization through the end of the century and the year 2025. From 1910 to World War II the urban population in all Third World countries grew more rapidly than the total population. Both rates of growth were moderate compared to subsequent rates. Total Third World population grew by about .9%/year while the urban population grew at 2.2%/year. From 1950-80 total population grew at 2.2% and the urban population by 4.6%. The urban growth took place in the absence of economic developments capable of explaining or justifying it. Urban growth accounted in large part for the extraordinary increase in cereal importation to the Third World. In 1980 it was estimated that 26.5% of the population if Africa, 63.1% in Latin America, and 25.4% in Asian countries excluding China were urban. A characteristic of third World urbanization is the strong concentration of population in large cities; 43% of the urban population currently lives in cities with population of over 500,000. In Third World market countries, total population growth from 1970-80 is provisionally estimated at 2.5-2.6%/year, while according to UN estimates urban population growth amounted to 4.2%/year and other estimates place population growth amounted to 4.2%/year and other estimates place it at 4.4%/year. The growth of the urban population in China from 1970-80 was estimated at 3.3%/year by the UN. During the 75 years from 1950-2025, the Third World urban population is expected to multiply by a factor of 16, from less than 200 million to over 3 billion. The urban population in 2025 projected by the UN amounts to 837 million in Africa, 724 million in Latin America, and 1.6 billion in Asian market countries, but there is some suggestion that the projection errs on the low side. Increases in food production on the order of 1.9%/year will be required through 2025 to feed the new urban population at the current level. Around the year 2000, cities of 1 million or more will contain about 46% of the urban population and 21% of the total population. The largest Third World cities will continue to grow despite their poor living conditions and lack of economic justification, and the low incomes of the inhabitants will increase the difficulty of improving living standards. Predictions as far ahead as 2025 are hazardous, but it is likely that the rate of growth of the largest cities will have abated somewhat.

Urban population growth and urbanization in the Caribbean.

PubMed

Hope, K R

1985-01-01

The structure, sources, consequences, and policy implications of urbanization and of the rapid growth of the urban population in the Caribbean are examined. In particular, a comparative analysis of the situation in Barbados, Guyana, Jamaica, and Trinidad and Tobago is presented. Data are from a variety of secondary sources, including those published by the United Nations and the World Bank. The need to reorient policies to favor rural rather than urban areas in order to reduce rural-urban migration is noted.

Challenges associated with projecting urbanization-induced heat-related mortality.

PubMed

Hondula, David M; Georgescu, Matei; Balling, Robert C

2014-08-15

Maricopa County, Arizona, anchor to the fastest growing megapolitan area in the United States, is located in a hot desert climate where extreme temperatures are associated with elevated risk of mortality. Continued urbanization in the region will impact atmospheric temperatures and, as a result, potentially affect human health. We aimed to quantify the number of excess deaths attributable to heat in Maricopa County based on three future urbanization and adaptation scenarios and multiple exposure variables. Two scenarios (low and high growth projections) represent the maximum possible uncertainty range associated with urbanization in central Arizona, and a third represents the adaptation of high-albedo cool roof technology. Using a Poisson regression model, we related temperature to mortality using data spanning 1983-2007. Regional climate model simulations based on 2050-projected urbanization scenarios for Maricopa County generated distributions of temperature change, and from these predicted changes future excess heat-related mortality was estimated. Subject to urbanization scenario and exposure variable utilized, projections of heat-related mortality ranged from a decrease of 46 deaths per year (-95%) to an increase of 339 deaths per year (+359%). Projections based on minimum temperature showed the greatest increase for all expansion and adaptation scenarios and were substantially higher than those for daily mean temperature. Projections based on maximum temperature were largely associated with declining mortality. Low-growth and adaptation scenarios led to the smallest increase in predicted heat-related mortality based on mean temperature projections. Use of only one exposure variable to project future heat-related deaths may therefore be misrepresentative in terms of direction of change and magnitude of effects. Because urbanization-induced impacts can vary across the diurnal cycle, projections of heat-related health outcomes that do not consider place-based, time-varying urban heat island effects are neglecting essential elements for policy relevant decision-making. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Dendrometer studies in urban and rural environments in Stockholm, Sweden

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rocha, Eva; Holzkämper, Steffen

2017-04-01

With this study we investigate growth performances of Pinus sylvestris growing under the influence of the Urban Heat Island of the city of Stockholm, Sweden, and trees growing in the rural surrounding of the city. The aims of this investigation are to see whether and how much the growth performances differ, and which climatic parameters control the tree growth at the respective locations. Stockholm holds one of the world's longest observational climate records, reaching back to AD 1756. Since climate data are collected at a location which today is well within the Urban Heat Island, it is relevant to quantify the correlation differences between climate and tree growth data from trees which actually grow under the same climate conditions and trees growing under natural, rural climate conditions. Applied methods include Remote Sensing and GIS for identification and characterization of the Urban Heat Island, monitoring of tree growth at 30 min-resolution with point dendrometers (Ecomatik) and monitoring of local climate directly at the tree sites. First results indicate emphasized growth differences between the urban and the rural sites, with distinctively higher daily diameter change amplitudes at the urban sites compared to the rural sites, which can be explained by differences in relative humidity and temperature ranges between the sites. We will present and discuss results from 1 year of measurements, focusing on correlation analysis between climate and tree growth data from urban and rural sites, as well as practical issues with dendrometer measurements.

Assessment of ecosystem services provided by urban trees: public lands within the Urban Growth Boundary of Corvallis, OR

EPA Science Inventory

Public lands within the Urban Growth Boundary of Corvallis, Oregon contain a diverse population of about 440,000 trees that include over 300 varieties and have an estimated tree cover of 31%. While often unrecognized, urban trees provide a variety of “ecosystem services” or dire...

Modeling the Impacts of Hydromodification on Water Quantity and Quality

EPA Science Inventory

Hydromodification activities are driven by human population growth and resource extraction and consumption including urbanization, agriculture, forestry, mining, water withdrawal, climate change, and flow regulation by dams and impoundments. These anthropogenic activities alter n...

Examples of Level Products Possible from Existing Assets

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Quattrochi, Dale A.

2012-01-01

How do patterns of human environmental and infectious diseases respond to leading environmental changes, particularly to urban growth and change and the associated impacts of urbanization? We use HyspIRI high spatial resolution, multispectral, and multitemporal TIR data to track energy balance and energy flux characteristics for changing land covers/land uses through time to provide synoptic views of impacts on surface energy fluxes, emissivity and temperature and HyspIRI data in conjunction with spatial growth models to project land cover/land use changes in the future to assess impacts on natural and human ecosystems. We use multispectral thermal IR land cover maps at a high spatial resolution (60m) on a weekly basis for long-term validation of surface energy responses and changes in emissivity and integration of HyspIRI TIR data with spatial modeling to assess changes in land cover/land use through time and subsequent changes in thermal energy responses

Urbanization, economic development and health: evidence from China's labor-force dynamic survey.

PubMed

Chen, Hongsheng; Liu, Ye; Li, Zhigang; Xue, Desheng

2017-11-29

The frequent outbreak of environmental threats in China has resulted in increased criticism regarding the health effects of China's urbanization. Urbanization is a double-edged sword with regard to health in China. Although great efforts have been made to investigate the mechanisms through which urbanization influences health, the effect of both economic development and urbanization on health in China is still unclear, and how urbanization-health (or development-health) relationships vary among different income groups remain poorly understood. To bridge these gaps, the present study investigates the impact of both urbanization and economic development on individuals' self-rated health and its underlying mechanisms in China. We use data from the national scale of the 2014 China Labor-force Dynamics Survey to analyze the impact of China's urbanization and economic development on health. A total of 14,791 individuals were sampled from 401 neighborhoods within 124 prefecture-level cities. Multilevel ordered logistic models were applied. Model results showed an inverted U-shaped relationship between individuals' self-rated health and urbanization rates (with a turning point of urbanization rate at 42.0%) and a positive linear relationship between their self-rated health and economic development. Model results also suggested that the urbanization-health relationship was inverted U-shaped for high- and middle-income people (with a turning point of urbanization rate at 0.0% and 49.2%, respectively), and the development-health relationship was inverted U-shaped for high- and low-income people (with turning points of GDP per capita at 93,462 yuan and 71,333 yuan, respectively) and linear for middle-income people. The impact of urbanization and economic development on health in China is complicated. Careful assessments are needed to understand the health impact of China's rapid urbanization. Social and environmental problems arising from rapid urbanization and economic growth should be addressed. Equitable provision of health services are needed to improve low-income groups' health in highly urbanized cities.

Decades of urban growth and development on the Asian megadeltas

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Small, Christopher; Sousa, Daniel; Yetman, Gregory; Elvidge, Christopher; MacManus, Kytt

2018-06-01

The current and ongoing expansion of urban areas worldwide represents the largest mass migration in human history. It is well known that the world's coastal zones are associated with large and growing concentrations of population, urban development and economic activity. Among coastal environments, deltas have long been recognized for both benefits and hazards. This is particularly true on the Asian megadeltas, where the majority of the world's deltaic populations reside. Current trends in urban migration, combined with demographic momentum suggest that the already large populations on the Asian megadeltas will continue to grow. In this study, we combine recently released gridded population density (circa 2010) with a newly developed night light change product (1992 to 2012) and a digital elevation model to quantify the spatial distribution of population and development on the nine Asian megadeltas. Bivariate distributions of population as functions of elevation and coastal proximity quantify potential exposure of deltaic populations to flood and coastal hazards. Comparison of these distributions for the Asian megadeltas show very different patterns of habitation with peak population elevations ranging from 2 to 11 m above sea level over a wide range of coastal proximities. Over all nine megadeltas, over 174 million people reside below a peak population elevation of 7 m. Changes in the spatial extent of anthropogenic night light from 1992 to 2012 show widely varying extents and changes of lighted urban development. All of the deltas except the Indus show the greatest increases in night light brightness occurring at elevations <10 m. At global and continental scales, growth of settlements of all sizes takes the form of evolving spatial networks of development. Spatial networks of lighted urban development in Asia show power law scaling properties consistent with other continents, but much higher rates of growth. The three largest networks of development in China all occur on deltas and adjacent lowlands, and are growing faster than the rest of the urban network in China. Since 2000, the Huanghe Delta + North China Plain urban network has surpassed the Japanese urban network in size and may soon connect with the Changjiang Delta + Yangtze River urban network to form the largest conurbation in Asia.

Slow Growth and Urban Sprawl: Support for a New Regional Agenda?

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Gainsborough, Juliet F.

2002-01-01

Assessed the possibilities for coalition building around growth related concerns, exploring support for slowing growth in New York City and Los Angeles. Analyzed data from surveys of urban and suburban dwellers regarding support for growth control measures. Suburbanites were much more receptive to slow growth policies than were urbanites, though…

Universal scaling of the distribution of land in urban areas

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Riascos, A. P.

2017-09-01

In this work, we explore the spatial structure of built zones and green areas in diverse western cities by analyzing the probability distribution of areas and a coefficient that characterize their respective shapes. From the analysis of diverse datasets describing land lots in urban areas, we found that the distribution of built-up areas and natural zones in cities obey inverse power laws with a similar scaling for the cities explored. On the other hand, by studying the distribution of shapes of lots in urban regions, we are able to detect global differences in the spatial structure of the distribution of land. Our findings introduce information about spatial patterns that emerge in the structure of urban settlements; this knowledge is useful for the understanding of urban growth, to improve existing models of cities, in the context of sustainability, in studies about human mobility in urban areas, among other applications.

Ethnic Groups in Urban Areas; Community Formation and Growth: A Selected Bibliography. Council of Planning Librarians Exchange Bibliography Series, Number 202.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Thompson, Bryan; Vance, Mary, Ed.

This bibliography deals with ethnic settlement patterns in urban areas. The emphasis is on factors that determine initial settlement, subsequent intraurban migration and community growth, and their relationship with the more general questions of urban structure and growth. The selection is by no means exhaustive, and was not compiled in any…

Modeling the impact of transport energy consumption on CO2 emission in Pakistan: Evidence from ARDL approach.

PubMed

Danish; Baloch, Muhammad Awais; Suad, Shah

2018-04-01

The objective of this research is to examine the relationship between transport energy consumption, economic growth, and carbon dioxide emission (CO 2 ) from transport sector incorporating foreign direct investment and urbanization. This study is carried out in Pakistan by applying autoregressive distributive lag (ARDL) and vector error correction model (VECM) over 1990-2015. The empirical results indicate a strong significant impact of transport energy consumption on CO 2 emissions from the transportation sector. Furthermore, foreign direct investment also contributes to CO 2 emission. Interestingly, the impact of economic growth and urbanization on transport CO 2 emission is statistically insignificant. Overall, transport energy consumption and foreign direct investment are not environmentally friendly. The new empirical evidence from this study provides a complete picture of the determinants of emissions from the transport sector and these novel findings not only help to advance the existing literature but also can be of special interest to the country's policymakers. So, we urge that government needs to focus on promoting the energy efficient means of transportation to improve environmental quality with less adverse influence on economic growth.

Relationship between health services, socioeconomic variables and inadequate weight gain among Brazilian children.

PubMed Central

de Souza, A. C.; Peterson, K. E.; Cufino, E.; Gardner, J.; Craveiro, M. V.; Ascherio, A.

1999-01-01

This ecological analysis assessed the relative contribution of behavioural, health services and socioeconomic variables to inadequate weight gain in infants (0-11 months) and children (12-23 months) in 140 municipalities in the State of Ceara, north-east Brazil. To assess the total effect of selected variables, we fitted three unique sets of multivariate linear regression models to the prevalence of inadequate weight gain in infants and in children. The final predictive models included variables from the three sets. Findings showed that participation in growth monitoring and urbanization were inversely and significantly associated with the prevalence of inadequate weight gain in infants, accounting for 38.3% of the variation. Female illiteracy rate, participation in growth monitoring and degree of urbanization were all positively associated with prevalence of inadequate weight gain in children. Together, these factors explained 25.6% of the variation. Our results suggest that efforts to reduce the average municipality-specific female illiteracy rate, in combination with participation in growth monitoring, may be effective in reducing municipality-level prevalence of inadequate weight gain in infants and children in Ceara. PMID:10612885

Relationship between health services, socioeconomic variables and inadequate weight gain among Brazilian children.

PubMed

de Souza, A C; Peterson, K E; Cufino, E; Gardner, J; Craveiro, M V; Ascherio, A

1999-01-01

This ecological analysis assessed the relative contribution of behavioural, health services and socioeconomic variables to inadequate weight gain in infants (0-11 months) and children (12-23 months) in 140 municipalities in the State of Ceara, north-east Brazil. To assess the total effect of selected variables, we fitted three unique sets of multivariate linear regression models to the prevalence of inadequate weight gain in infants and in children. The final predictive models included variables from the three sets. Findings showed that participation in growth monitoring and urbanization were inversely and significantly associated with the prevalence of inadequate weight gain in infants, accounting for 38.3% of the variation. Female illiteracy rate, participation in growth monitoring and degree of urbanization were all positively associated with prevalence of inadequate weight gain in children. Together, these factors explained 25.6% of the variation. Our results suggest that efforts to reduce the average municipality-specific female illiteracy rate, in combination with participation in growth monitoring, may be effective in reducing municipality-level prevalence of inadequate weight gain in infants and children in Ceara.

Observing the Vertical Dimensions of Singapore's Urban Heat Island

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chow, W. T. L.; Ho, D. X. Q.

2015-12-01

In numerous cities, measurements of urban warmth in most urban heat island (UHI) studies are generally constrained towards surface or near-surface (<2 m above ground) levels across horizontal variations in land use and land cover. However, there has been hitherto limited attention towards the measurement of vertical temperature profiles extending from the urban surface through to the urban boundary layer. Knowledge of these profiles, through how they vary over different local urban morphologies, and develop with respect to synoptic meteorological conditions, are important towards several aspects of UHI research; these include validating modelling urban canopy lapse rate profiles or estimating the growth of urban plumes. In this study, we utilised temperature sensors attached onto remote controlled aerial quadcopter platforms to measure urban temperature and humidity profiles in Singapore, which is a rapidly urbanizing major tropical metropolis. These profiles were measured from the surface to ~100 m above ground level, a height which includes all of the urban canopy and parts of the urban boundary layer. Initial results indicate significant variations in stability measured over different land uses (e.g. urban park, high-rise residential, commercial); these profiles are also temporally dynamic, depending on the time of day and larger-scale weather conditions.

[Effects of migration on the fertility component of urban growth: the case of Tunis].

PubMed

Picouet, M R

1983-01-01

The relationships among fertility, migration, and urban growth are explored using data from a survey of migration and employment in the city of Tunis, Tunisia. The survey, undertaken in 1972 and 1973, includes data on 1,850 households. Consideration is given to the process of integration of migrant women into urban life and to the consequent changes in their fertility behavior. The problems that these changes in fertility pose for the process of estimating the respective contributions of immigration and fertility to the rate of urban growth are considered.

What is Urban? A study of census and satellite-derived urban classes in the United States (1990-2010) with comparisons to India and Mexico

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Balk, D.; Leyk, S.; Jones, B.; Clark, A.; Montgomery, M.

2017-12-01

Geographers and demographers have contributed much to understanding urban population and urban place. Yet, we nevertheless remain ill-prepared to fully understand past urban processes and our urban future, and importantly, connect that knowledge to pressing concerns such as climate and environmental change. This is largely due to well-known data limitations and inherent inconsistencies in the urban definition across countries and over time and spatial scales, and because urban models and definitions arise out of disciplinary silos. This paper provides a new framework for urban inquiry in that it combines urban definitions used by the U.S. Census Bureau from 1990-2010 with newly available satellite-based (mostly Landsat) data on built-up area from the Global Human Settlement Layer (GHSL). We identify areas of agreement and disagreement, as well as the population distribution underlying various GHSL derived built-up land thresholds. Our analysis allows for a systematic means of discerning peri-urban areas from other types of urban development, as well as examines differences in these patterns at the national and Metropolitan Statistical Area (MSA)-level. While we find overwhelming areas of agreement - about 70% of the census-designated urban population can be characterized as living on land that is at least 50% built-up - we also learn much of the significant heterogeneity in levels and patterns of growth between different MSAs. We further compare the US results with those for India and Mexico. This research unlocks the potential of such alternative measures for creating globally and temporally consistent proxies of urban land and may guide further research on consistent modeling of spatial demographic urban change, highly urgent for future work to distinguish between fine-scale levels of urban development and to forecast urban expansion.

Relationship between urbanization and CO2 emissions depends on income level and policy.

PubMed

Ponce de Leon Barido, Diego; Marshall, Julian D

2014-04-01

We investigate empirically how national-level CO2 emissions are affected by urbanization and environmental policy. We use statistical modeling to explore panel data on annual CO2 emissions from 80 countries for the period 1983-2005. Random- and fixed-effects models indicate that, on the global average, the urbanization-emission elasticity value is 0.95 (i.e., a 1% increase in urbanization correlates with a 0.95% increase in emissions). Several regions display a statistically significant, positive elasticity for fixed- and random-effects models: lower-income Europe, India and the Sub-Continent, Latin America, and Africa. Using two proxies for environmental policy/outcomes (ratification status for the Kyoto Protocol; the Yale Environmental Performance Index), we find that in countries with stronger environmental policy/outcomes, urbanization has a more beneficial (or, a less negative) impact on emissions. Specifically, elasticity values are -1.1 (0.21) for higher-income (lower-income) countries with strong environmental policy, versus 0.65 (1.3) for higher-income (lower-income) countries with weak environmental policies. Our finding that the urbanization-emissions elasticity may depend on the strength of a country's environmental policy, not just marginal increases in income, is in contrast to the idea of universal urban scaling laws that can ignore local context. Most global population growth in the coming decades is expected to occur in urban areas of lower-income countries, which underscores the importance of these findings.

Where Deforestation Leads to Urbanization: How Resource Extraction is Leading to Urban Growth in the Brazilian Amazon.

PubMed

Richards, Peter; VanWey, Leah

2015-07-01

Developing the Amazon into a major provider of internationally traded mineral and food commodities has dramatically transformed broad expanses of tropical forests to farm and pasturelands, and to mining sites. The environmental impacts of this transformation, as well as the drivers underlying the process, have already been well documented. In this article we turn our analytical lenses to another, less examined effect of Amazon land use and environmental change, namely the creation and development of new urban areas. Here we argue that urban growth in the Amazon is a direct residual of international interest in the production of traded commodities, and of the capacity of local urban residents to capture capital and value before it is extracted from the region. Specifically, we suggest that urban growth is occurring fastest where cities have access to both rural export commodities and export corridors. We also show correlations between urban growth and lower rural population density, and cities' capacities to draw migrants from beyond their immediate rural surroundings. More broadly, we argue that urbanization in the Amazon is better interpreted as a symptom rather than a driver of the region's land use and land cover change.

Where Deforestation Leads to Urbanization: How Resource Extraction is Leading to Urban Growth in the Brazilian Amazon

PubMed Central

VanWey, Leah

2015-01-01

Developing the Amazon into a major provider of internationally traded mineral and food commodities has dramatically transformed broad expanses of tropical forests to farm and pasturelands, and to mining sites. The environmental impacts of this transformation, as well as the drivers underlying the process, have already been well documented. In this article we turn our analytical lenses to another, less examined effect of Amazon land use and environmental change, namely the creation and development of new urban areas. Here we argue that urban growth in the Amazon is a direct residual of international interest in the production of traded commodities, and of the capacity of local urban residents to capture capital and value before it is extracted from the region. Specifically, we suggest that urban growth is occurring fastest where cities have access to both rural export commodities and export corridors. We also show correlations between urban growth and lower rural population density, and cities’ capacities to draw migrants from beyond their immediate rural surroundings. More broadly, we argue that urbanization in the Amazon is better interpreted as a symptom rather than a driver of the region’s land use and land cover change. PMID:26985079

A cellular automata model of land cover change to integrate urban growth with open space conservation

EPA Science Inventory

The preservation of riparian zones and other environmentally sensitive areas has long been recognized as one of the most cost-effective methods of managing stormwater and providing a broad range of ecosystem services. In this research, a cellular automata (CA)—Markov chain model ...

Scaling Law of Urban Ride Sharing.

PubMed

Tachet, R; Sagarra, O; Santi, P; Resta, G; Szell, M; Strogatz, S H; Ratti, C

2017-03-06

Sharing rides could drastically improve the efficiency of car and taxi transportation. Unleashing such potential, however, requires understanding how urban parameters affect the fraction of individual trips that can be shared, a quantity that we call shareability. Using data on millions of taxi trips in New York City, San Francisco, Singapore, and Vienna, we compute the shareability curves for each city, and find that a natural rescaling collapses them onto a single, universal curve. We explain this scaling law theoretically with a simple model that predicts the potential for ride sharing in any city, using a few basic urban quantities and no adjustable parameters. Accurate extrapolations of this type will help planners, transportation companies, and society at large to shape a sustainable path for urban growth.

Urbanization and the wealth of nations.

PubMed

Bloom, David E; Canning, David; Fink, Günther

2008-02-08

The proportion of a country's population living in urban areas is highly correlated with its level of income. Urban areas offer economies of scale and richer market structures, and there is strong evidence that workers in urban areas are individually more productive, and earn more, than rural workers. However, rapid urbanization is also associated with crowding, environmental degradation, and other impediments to productivity. Overall, we find no evidence that the level of urbanization affects the rate of economic growth. Our findings weaken the rationale for either encouraging or discouraging urbanization as part of a strategy for economic growth.

Slides from the 2013 Smart Growth Summit on How to Learn from the New Orleans Urban Waters Partnership

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

Presentation Slides for 2013 Smart Growth Summit, Baton Rouge, LA, H2O Overview: How to Learn from the New Orleans Urban Waters Partnership - Danny Wiegand Urban Waters Ambassador to New Orleans November 19, 2013

[Identification of coupling relationship between urbanization and ecological environment in Jilin from entropy change perspective].

PubMed

Sun, Ping-Jun; Xiu, Chun-Liang; Zhang, Tian-Jiao

2014-03-01

By using the entropy change equation of the second law of thermodynamics, entropy method and PSE model, this article made an analysis on coupling relationship between urbanization and ecological environment in Jilin Province from 2001 to 2011. In the study period, the urbanization development had been out of normal evolution track: The economic urbanization and space urbanization dominated the whole urbanization process, while population urbanization was neglected too seriously, with an apparent characteristic of extensive and inefficient input of resources (especially land resource). According to the levels of ecological environment on the basis of PSE model, not only the pressure index, sensitivity index and the elasticity index, but also the comprehensive index showed considerable growth with obvious stage characteristics: ascending-descending-ascending. The total entropy values of the urbanization were less than zero during the time, which meant an unstable rising curve. While the total trophy values of the ecological environment varied below and above zero, and 2003, 2006, 2010 and 2011 were the "turning points", reflecting the instability of the ecological environment. The coupling total entropy values between urbanization and ecological environment had the same characteristics with the ecological environment: the same "turning points" and shape of the curve, in which, the "turning points" corresponded to the type of antagonistic evolution pattern, while the rest of years responded to the type of coordination evolution pattern.

A Comparison of One-Dimensional Hydrologic Models Using Soil Moisture Observations under Urban Irrigation in a Desert Climate

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Volo, T. J.; Vivoni, E. R.; Martin, C. A.; Wang, Z.; Ruddell, B.

2012-12-01

Through the past several decades, rapid population growth in the arid American Southwest has dramatically changed patterns of plant-available water through municipal and residential irrigation systems that provide supplemental water to designed and managed urban landscape vegetation. Urban irrigation, including diversion of rainwater and addition of imported water, has thereby enabled the transformation of areas once covered by bare soil and low water-use, native desert plant species to large tracts of exotic, high water-use turf grass and shade trees. Despite the large percentage of residential water appropriated to irrigation purposes, models of urban hydrology often fail to include the impact that this anthropogenic input has on water, energy, and biomass conditions. This study utilizes two one-dimensional soil moisture models to examine the importance of representing different processes in a quantitative urban ecohydrology model under irrigation scenarios. Such processes include sub-daily energy fluxes, vertical redistribution of soil moisture, saturation- and infiltration-excess runoff mechanisms, seasonally variable irrigation scheduling, and soil moisture control on evapotranspiration rates. The analysis is informed by soil moisture observations from an experimental sensor network in the Phoenix, Arizona metropolitan area. The network includes data from several different landscape and irrigation treatments representative of pre- and post-development conditions in the region. By interpreting soil moisture levels in terms of plant water stress, this study analyzes the effectiveness of urban irrigation practices in arid climates. Furthermore, by identifying the necessary hydrologic processes to represent in an urban ecohydrology model, our results inform future work in adapting a distributed hydrologic model to desert urban settings where irrigation plays a significant role in minimizing plant water stress. An appropriate model of water and energy balances, calibrated using local meteorological forcing, can facilitate discussions with water managers and homeowners regarding optimal irrigation frequency, volume, duration, and seasonality for individual landscapes, while also aiding in water-efficient landscape design for growing cities in desert regions.

Population causes and consequences of leading chronic diseases: a comparative analysis of prevailing explanations.

PubMed

Stuckler, David

2008-06-01

The mortality numbers and rates of chronic disease are rising faster in developing than in developed countries. This article compares prevailing explanations of population chronic disease trends with theoretical and empirical models of population chronic disease epidemiology and assesses some economic consequences of the growth of chronic diseases in developing countries based on the experiences of developed countries. Four decades of male mortality rates of cardiovascular and chronic noncommunicable diseases were regressed on changes in and levels of country income per capita, market integration, foreign direct investment, urbanization rates, and population aging in fifty-six countries for which comparative data were available. Neoclassical economic growth models were used to estimate the effect of the mortality rates of chronic noncommunicable diseases on economic growth in high-income OECD countries. Processes of economic growth, market integration, foreign direct investment, and urbanization were significant determinants of long-term changes in mortality rates of heart disease and chronic noncommunicable disease, and the observed relationships with these social and economic factors were roughly three times stronger than the relationships with the population's aging. In low-income countries, higher levels of country income per capita, population urbanization, foreign direct investment, and market integration were associated with greater mortality rates of heart disease and chronic noncommunicable disease, less increased or sometimes reduced rates in middle-income countries, and decreased rates in high-income countries. Each 10 percent increase in the working-age mortality rates of chronic noncommunicable disease decreased economic growth rates by close to a half percent. Macrosocial and macroeconomic forces are major determinants of population rises in chronic disease mortality, and some prevailing demographic explanations, such as population aging, are incomplete on methodological, empirical, and policy grounds. Rising chronic disease mortality rates will significantly reduce economic growth in developing countries and further widen the health and economic gap between the developed and developing world.

Population Causes and Consequences of Leading Chronic Diseases: A Comparative Analysis of Prevailing Explanations

PubMed Central

Stuckler, David

2008-01-01

Context The mortality numbers and rates of chronic disease are rising faster in developing than in developed countries. This article compares prevailing explanations of population chronic disease trends with theoretical and empirical models of population chronic disease epidemiology and assesses some economic consequences of the growth of chronic diseases in developing countries based on the experiences of developed countries. Methods Four decades of male mortality rates of cardiovascular and chronic noncommunicable diseases were regressed on changes in and levels of country income per capita, market integration, foreign direct investment, urbanization rates, and population aging in fifty-six countries for which comparative data were available. Neoclassical economic growth models were used to estimate the effect of the mortality rates of chronic noncommunicable diseases on economic growth in high-income OECD countries. Findings Processes of economic growth, market integration, foreign direct investment, and urbanization were significant determinants of long-term changes in mortality rates of heart disease and chronic noncommunicable disease, and the observed relationships with these social and economic factors were roughly three times stronger than the relationships with the population's aging. In low-income countries, higher levels of country income per capita, population urbanization, foreign direct investment, and market integration were associated with greater mortality rates of heart disease and chronic noncommunicable disease, less increased or sometimes reduced rates in middle-income countries, and decreased rates in high-income countries. Each 10 percent increase in the working-age mortality rates of chronic noncommunicable disease decreased economic growth rates by close to a half percent. Conclusions Macrosocial and macroeconomic forces are major determinants of population rises in chronic disease mortality, and some prevailing demographic explanations, such as population aging, are incomplete on methodological, empirical, and policy grounds. Rising chronic disease mortality rates will significantly reduce economic growth in developing countries and further widen the health and economic gap between the developed and developing world. PMID:18522614

Simulating Spatial Growth Patterns in Developing Countries: A Case of Shama in the Western Region of Ghana.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Inkoom, J. N.; Nyarko, B. K.

2014-12-01

The integration of geographic information systems (GIS) and agent-based modelling (ABM) can be an efficient tool to improve spatial planning practices. This paper utilizes GIS and ABM approaches to simulate spatial growth patterns of settlement structures in Shama. A preliminary household survey on residential location decision-making choice served as the behavioural rule for household agents in the model. Physical environment properties of the model were extracted from a 2005 image implemented in NetLogo. The resulting growth pattern model was compared with empirical growth patterns to ascertain the model's accuracy. The paper establishes that the development of unplanned structures and its evolving structural pattern are a function of land price, proximity to economic centres, household economic status and location decision-making patterns. The application of the proposed model underlines its potential for integration into urban planning policies and practices, and for understanding residential decision-making processes in emerging cities in developing countries. Key Words: GIS; Agent-based modelling; Growth patterns; NetLogo; Location decision making; Computational Intelligence.

Urban sprawl, smart growth, and deliberative democracy.

PubMed

Resnik, David B

2010-10-01

Urban sprawl is an increasingly common feature of the built environment in the United States and other industrialized nations. Although there is considerable evidence that urban sprawl has adverse affects on public health and the environment, policy frameworks designed to combat sprawl-such as smart growth-have proven to be controversial, making implementation difficult. Smart growth has generated considerable controversy because stakeholders affected by urban planning policies have conflicting interests and divergent moral and political viewpoints. In some of these situations, deliberative democracy-an approach to resolving controversial public-policy questions that emphasizes open, deliberative debate among the affected parties as an alternative to voting-would be a fair and effective way to resolve urban-planning issues.

Policies for managing urban growth and landscape change: a key to conservation in the 21st century

Treesearch

David N., tech. ed. Bengston

2005-01-01

Protecting natural areas in the face of urbanization is one of the most important challenges for conservation in the 21st century. The papers in this collection examine key issues related to growth management and selected approaches to managing urban growth and minimizing its social and environmental costs. They were presented at the 2004 annual meeting of the Society...

Compact or spread? A quantitative spatial model of urban areas in Europe since 1990

PubMed Central

Haase, Dagmar; Haase, Annegret

2018-01-01

Changes in urban residential density represent an important issue in terms of land consumption, the conservation of ecosystems, air quality and related human health problems, as well as the consequential challenges for urban and regional planning. It is the decline of residential densities, in particular, that has often been used as the very definition of sprawl, describing a phenomenon that has been extensively studied in the United States and in Western Europe. Whilst these studies provide valuable insights into urbanization processes, only a handful of them have reflected the uneven dynamics of simultaneous urban growth and shrinkage, using residential density changes as a key indicator to uncover the underlying dynamics. This paper introduces a contrasting analysis of recent developments in both de- and re-concentration, defined as decreasing or increasing residential densities, respectively. Using a large sample of European cities, it detects differences in density changes between successional population growth/decline. The paper shows that dedensification, found in some large cities globally, is not a universal phenomenon in growing urban areas; neither the increasing disproportion between a declining demand for and an increasing supply of residential areas nor actual concentration processes in cities were found. Thus, the paper provides a new, very detailed perspective on (de)densification in both shrinking and growing cities and how they specifically contribute to current land take in Europe. PMID:29489851

Compact or spread? A quantitative spatial model of urban areas in Europe since 1990.

PubMed

Wolff, Manuel; Haase, Dagmar; Haase, Annegret

2018-01-01

Changes in urban residential density represent an important issue in terms of land consumption, the conservation of ecosystems, air quality and related human health problems, as well as the consequential challenges for urban and regional planning. It is the decline of residential densities, in particular, that has often been used as the very definition of sprawl, describing a phenomenon that has been extensively studied in the United States and in Western Europe. Whilst these studies provide valuable insights into urbanization processes, only a handful of them have reflected the uneven dynamics of simultaneous urban growth and shrinkage, using residential density changes as a key indicator to uncover the underlying dynamics. This paper introduces a contrasting analysis of recent developments in both de- and re-concentration, defined as decreasing or increasing residential densities, respectively. Using a large sample of European cities, it detects differences in density changes between successional population growth/decline. The paper shows that dedensification, found in some large cities globally, is not a universal phenomenon in growing urban areas; neither the increasing disproportion between a declining demand for and an increasing supply of residential areas nor actual concentration processes in cities were found. Thus, the paper provides a new, very detailed perspective on (de)densification in both shrinking and growing cities and how they specifically contribute to current land take in Europe.

Population pressure on coral atolls: trends and approaching limits.

PubMed

Rapaport, M

1990-09-01

Trends and approaching limits of population pressure on coral atolls is discussed by examining the atoll environment in terms of the physical geography, the production systems, and resource distribution. Atoll populations are grouped as dependent and independent, and demographic trends in population growth, migraiton, urbanization, and political dependency are reviewed. Examination of the carrying capacity includes a dynamic model, the influences of the West, and philopsophical considerations. The carrying capacity is the "maximal population supportable in a given area". Traditional models are criticized because of a lack in accounting for external linkages. The proposed model is dynamic and considers perceived needs and overseas linkages. It also explains regional disparities in population distribution, and provides a continuing model for population movement from outer islands to district centers and mainland areas. Because of increased expectations and perceived needs, there is a lower carrying capacity for outlying areas, and expanded capacity in district centers. This leads to urbanization, emigration, and carrying capacity overshot in regional and mainland areas. Policy intervention is necessary at the regional and island community level. Atolls, which are islands surrounding deep lagoons, exist in archipelagoes across the oceans, and are rich in aquatic life. The balance in this small land area with a vulnerable ecosystem may be easily disturbed by scarce water supplies, barren soils, rising sea levels in the future, hurricanes, and tsunamis. Traditionally, fisheries and horticulture (pit-taro, coconuts, and breadfruit) have sustained populations, but modern influences such as blasting, reef mining, new industrial technologies, population pressure, and urbanization threaten the balance. Population pressure, which has lead to pollution, epidemics, malnutrition, crime, social disintegration, and foreign dependence, is evidenced in the areas of Tuvalu, Kiribati, the Marshall Islands, and the Maldive Islands, independent islands. Other areas with low migration, low growth rates, and minimal urbanization include the Tokelau Islands, the Northern Cook Islands, the Tuamotu Archipelago, and the outer islands in the Federated States of Micronesia. Additional research is needed to identify and develop drought resistant and salt resistent varieties of trees, root crops, and other resources. Fresh water areas need protection from overland latrines and irrigation projects, and construction projects. Improvements are needed for regional cooperation and collaboration in industrial development. Tourism and the export industries yield income but produce urban problems. Addressing low growth areas with economic means alleviates spillover effects.

High-resolution mapping of biogenic carbon fluxes to improve urban CO2 monitoring, reporting, and verification

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hardiman, B. S.; Hutyra, L.; Gately, C.; Raciti, S. M.

2014-12-01

Urban areas are home to 80% of the US population and 70% of energy related fossil fuel emissions originate from urban areas. Efforts to accurately monitor, report, and verify anthropogenic CO2 missions using atmospheric measurements require reliable partitioning of anthropogenic and biogenic sources. Anthropogenic emissions peak during the daytime, coincident with biogenic drawdown of CO2. In contrast, biogenic respiration emissions peak at night when anthropogenic emissions are lower. This temporal aliasing of fluxes requires careful modeling of both biogenic and anthropogenic fluxes for accurate source attribution through inverse modeling. Biogenic fluxes in urban regions can be a significant component of the urban carbon cycle. However, vegetation in urban areas is subject to longer growing seasons, reduced competition, higher rates of nitrogen deposition, and altered patterns of biomass inputs, all interacting to elevate C turnover rates relative to analogous non-urban ecosystems. These conditions suggest that models that ignore urban vegetation or base biogenic flux estimates on non-urban forests are likely to produce inaccurate estimates of anthropogenic CO2 emissions. Biosphere models often omit biogenic fluxes in urban areas despite potentially extensive vegetation coverage. For example, in Massachusetts, models mask out as much as 40% of land area, effectively assuming they have no biological flux. This results in a ~32% underestimate of aboveground biomass (AGB) across the state as compared to higher resolution vegetation maps. Our analysis suggests that some common biomass maps may underestimate forest biomass by ~520 Tg C within the state of Massachusetts. Moreover, omitted portions of the state have the highest population density, indicating that we know least about regions where most people live. We combine remote sensing imagery of urban vegetation cover with ground surveys of tree growth and mortality to improve estimates of aboveground biomass and biogenic flux rates. Updated biogenic flux rates are combined with spatially explicit anthropogenic flux estimates and a network of urban CO2 monitoring sites as the foundation for a novel carbon monitoring system spanning the Boston-Washington D.C. metropolitan corridor.

Strategies for providing healthcare services to street-dwellers in Dhaka city: evidence from an operations research.

PubMed

Uddin, Jasim; Koehlmoos, Tracey P; Saha, Nirod C; Islam, Ziaul; Khan, Iqbal A; Quaiyum, M A

2012-06-13

In almost every major urban city, thousands of people live in overcrowded slums, streets, or other public places without any health services. Bangladesh has experienced one of the highest rates of urban population growth in the last three decades compared to the national population growth rate. The numbers of the urban poor and street-dwellers are likely to increase at least in proportion to the overall population growth of the country. The street-dwellers in Bangladesh are extremely vulnerable in terms of their health needs and healthcare-seeking behaviours. In Bangladesh, there is no health service-delivery mechanism targeting this marginalized group of people. This study, therefore, assessed the effectiveness of two models to provide primary healthcare (PHC) services to street-dwellers. This study of experimental pre-post design tested two models, such as static clinic and satellite clinics, for providing PHC services to street-dwellers in the evening through paramedics in Dhaka city during May 2009-April 2010. Both quantitative and qualitative techniques were used for collecting data. Data were analyzed comparing before and after the implementation of the clinics for the assessment of selected health and family-planning indicators using the statistical t-test. Services received from the model l and model 2 clinics were also compared by calculating the absolute difference to determine the relative effectiveness of one model over another. The use of healthcare services by the street-dwellers increased at endline compared to baseline in both the model clinic areas, and the difference was highly significant (p < 0.001). Institutional delivery among the female street-dwellers increased at endline compared to baseline in both the clinic areas. The use of family-planning methods among females also significantly (p < 0.001) increased at endline compared to baseline in both the areas. As the findings of the study showed the promise of this approach, the strategies could be implemented in all other cities of Bangladesh and in other countries which encounter similar problems.

Monitoring and modeling land-use change in the Pearl River Delta, China, using satellite imagery and socioeconomic data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Seto, Karen Ching-Yee

Over the last two decades, rapid rates of economic growth in the People's Republic of China have converted large areas of natural ecosystems and agricultural lands to urban uses. The size and rate of these land-use changes may affect local and regional climate, biogeochemistry, and food supply. To assess these impacts, both the amount of land converted and its relation to socioeconomic drivers must be determined. This research combines satellite remote sensing, which is used to monitor land conversion, with socioeconomic data to model the economic and demographic drivers of land-use change in the Pearl River Delta of Southern China. This research modifies existing techniques and develops new methods to assess the type, amount, and timing of land-use change from annual Landsat Thematic Mapper (TM) images from 1988 to 1996. During this period, most of the land-use change is conversion of agricultural land to urban areas. Results indicate that urban areas, increased by over 300% between 1988 and 1996. Field assessments confirm these results and indicate that the land-use change map is highly accurate at 93.5%. To use these data as inputs to statistical models, the year of land conversion derived from satellite imagery must be unbiased. A new method that uses time series techniques identifies the date at which land-use changes occur from a sequential series of TM images. The accuracy and bias of the dates of change identified compare favorably to a more conventional remote sensing change detection technique and may have the additional advantages of reducing efforts required to assemble training data and to correct for atmospheric effects. Data on the quantity of land-use change and the timing of these changes are used in conjunction with socioeconomic data to estimate statistical models that identify and quantify the demographic and economic changes on two types of land conversion: urbanization of agricultural land and urbanization of natural vegetation. Results confirm conventional theory that wage differentials between urban and agricultural sectors, foreign direct investment, and income growth are important determinants of land-use change.

How mid-sized cities can avoid strangulation.

PubMed

O'meara, M

1998-01-01

This article illustrates the success of two cities--Portland, Oregon, and Curitiba, Brazil--in managing urban growth and the problems that accompany growth (traffic congestion, pollution, psychological stress, and chaotic development). The world's 14 megacities are home to 7.6% of the global urban population, while the 195 mid-sized cities are inhabited by 31% of the global urban population. The above two cities (1-2.5 million inhabitants) resisted the destruction of old neighborhoods for new highways. Portland and Curitiba are global models of successful management and livability and demonstrate economic viability, social cohesiveness, and environmental health. These cities used unique approaches to social and economic inequities. In Curitiba, the poor have the same purchasing power as in Sao Paulo, but life is bearable because of its level of services. Portland has avoided a concentration of poor in the central city. Both cities have active streets with a mix of shops, factories, offices, and houses. Cities deteriorate when geographic layouts reduce social interaction between rich and poor, people and services, and internal building viability vs. external building decay. Both cities enhance public space and cut urban sprawl. Transportation and other systems accommodate fringe settlements and restrict growth in environmentally sensitive areas. Parks and trees make each city visually attractive. Portland has laws limiting housing growth. Planning minimizes private car use and maximizes pedestrian welfare. Portland's political system was key to planning. Curitiba suffers from lack of coordination with other cities and is at the mercy of state and federal funding. Curitiba has succeeded by making practical policy decisions.

Foraging at the wildland–urban interface decouples weather as a driver of recruitment for desert bighorn sheep

USGS Publications Warehouse

Longshore, Kathleen M.; Lowrey, Chris E.; Cummings, Patrick

2016-01-01

A growing number of ungulate populations are living within or near the wildland–urban interface. When resources at the interface are of greater quality than that of adjacent natural habitat, wildlife can be attracted to these developed areas. Little is known about how use of the wildland–urban interface by wildlife may affect vital rates. Under natural conditions, recruitment by desert bighorn sheep (Ovis canadensis nelsoni) correlates with variation in the timing and amount of rainfall that initiates and enhances growth of annual plant species. However, for populations that forage in developed areas, this relationship may become decoupled. In the River Mountains of Nevada, USA, desert bighorn sheep have been feeding in a municipal park at the wildland–urban interface since its establishment in 1985. Approximately one-third of the population now uses the park during summer months when nutritional content of natural forage is low. We hypothesized that use of this municipal area, with its abundant vegetation and water resources, may have decoupled the previous relationship between precipitation and lamb recruitment. We assessed variables known to affect lamb recruitment before (1971–1986) and after (1987–2006) establishment of the park using linear regression models. Our top candidate model for the pre-park period indicated that total November precipitation was the greatest driver of lamb recruitment in this population. After park establishment, this relationship became decoupled because lamb recruitment was no longer driven by weather variables. These results raise questions about the effects of decoupling drivers of population growth and maintaining natural populations near urban areas.

Urban Ecology: Patterns of Population Growth and Ecological Effects

Treesearch

Wayne C. Zipperer; Steward T.A. Pickett

2012-01-01

Currently, over 50% of the world’s population lives in urban areas. By 2050, this estimate is expected to be 70%. This urban growth, however, is not uniformly distributed around the world. The majority of it will occur in developing nations and create megacities whose populations exceed at least 10 million people. Not all urban areas, however, are growing. Some are...

Restoring the hydrologic response to pre-developed conditions in an urbanized headwater catchment: Reality or utopia?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wright, O.; Istanbulluoglu, E.

2012-12-01

The conversion of forested areas to impervious surfaces, lawns and pastures alters the natural hydrology of an area by increasing the flashiness of stormwater generated runoff, resulting in increased streamflow peaks and volumes. Currently, most of the stormwater from developed areas in the Puget Sound region remains uncontrolled. The lack of adequate stormwater facilities along with increasing urbanization and population growth illustrates the importance of understanding urban watershed behavior and best management practices (BMPs) that improve changes in hydrology. In this study, we developed a lumped urban ecohydrology model that represents vegetation dynamics, connects pervious and impervious surfaces and implements various BMP scenarios. The model is implemented in an urban headwater subcatchment located in the Newaukum Creek Basin. We evaluate the hydrologic impact of controlling runoff at the source and disconnecting impervious surfaces from the storm drain using rain barrels and bioretention cells. BMP scenarios consider the basin's land use/land coverage, the response of different impervious surface types, the potential for BMP placement, the size and drainage area for BMPs, and the mitigation needs to meet in-stream flow goals.

Comparing Different Approaches for Mapping Urban Vegetation Cover from Landsat ETM+ Data: A Case Study on Brussels

PubMed Central

Van de Voorde, Tim; Vlaeminck, Jeroen; Canters, Frank

2008-01-01

Urban growth and its related environmental problems call for sustainable urban management policies to safeguard the quality of urban environments. Vegetation plays an important part in this as it provides ecological, social, health and economic benefits to a city's inhabitants. Remotely sensed data are of great value to monitor urban green and despite the clear advantages of contemporary high resolution images, the benefits of medium resolution data should not be discarded. The objective of this research was to estimate fractional vegetation cover from a Landsat ETM+ image with sub-pixel classification, and to compare accuracies obtained with multiple stepwise regression analysis, linear spectral unmixing and multi-layer perceptrons (MLP) at the level of meaningful urban spatial entities. Despite the small, but nevertheless statistically significant differences at pixel level between the alternative approaches, the spatial pattern of vegetation cover and estimation errors is clearly distinctive at neighbourhood level. At this spatially aggregated level, a simple regression model appears to attain sufficient accuracy. For mapping at a spatially more detailed level, the MLP seems to be the most appropriate choice. Brightness normalisation only appeared to affect the linear models, especially the linear spectral unmixing. PMID:27879914

Modelling regional climate change and urban planning scenarios and their impacts on the urban environment in two cities with WRF-ACASA

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Falk, M.; Pyles, R. D.; Marras, S.; Spano, D.; Paw U, K. T.

2011-12-01

The number of urban metabolism studies has increased in recent years, due to the important impact that energy, water and carbon exchange over urban areas have on climate change. Urban modeling is therefore crucial in the future design and management of cities. This study presents the ACASA model coupled to the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF-ARW) mesoscale model to simulate urban fluxes at a horizontal resolution of 200 meters for urban areas of roughly 100 km^2. As part of the European Project "BRIDGE", these regional simulations were used in combination with remotely sensed data to provide constraints on the land surface types and the exchange of carbon and energy fluxes from urban centers. Surface-atmosphere exchanges of mass and energy were simulated using the Advanced Canopy Atmosphere Soil Algorithm (ACASA). ACASA is a multi-layer high-order closure model, recently modified to work over natural, agricultural as well as urban environments. In particular, improvements were made to account for the anthropogenic contribution to heat and carbon production. For two cities four climate change and four urban planning scenarios were simulated: The climate change scenarios include a base scenario (Sc0: 2008 Commit in IPCC), a medium emission scenario (Sc1: IPCC A2), a worst case emission scenario (Sce2: IPCC A1F1) and finally a best case emission scenario (Sce3: IPCC B1). The urban planning scenarios include different development scenarios such as smart growth. The two cities are a high latitude city, Helsinki (Finland) and an historic city, Florence (Italy). Helsinki is characterized by recent, rapid urbanization that requires a substantial amount of energy for heating, while Florence is representative of cities in lower latitudes, with substantial cultural heritage and a comparatively constant architectural footprint over time. In general, simulated fluxes matched the point observations well and showed consistent improvement in the energy partitioning over urban regions. We present comparisons of observed (EC) tower flux observations from the Florence (Ximeniano) site for 1-9 April, 2008 with results from two sets of high-resolution simulations: the first using dynamically-downscaled input/boundary conditions (Model-0) and the second using fully nested WRF-ACASA (Model-1). In each simulation the model physics are the same; only the WRF domain configuration differs. Preliminary results (Figure 1) indicate a degree of parity (and a slight statistical improvement), in the performances of Model-1 vs. that of Model-0 with respect to observed. Figure 1 (below) shows air temperature values from observed and both model estimates. Additional results indicate that care must be taken to configure the WRF domain, as performance appears to be sensitive to model configuration.

Consolidating Data of Global Urban Populations: a Comparative Approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Blankespoor, B.; Khan, A.; Selod, H.

2017-12-01

Global data on city populations are essential for the study of urbanization, city growth and the spatial distribution of human settlements. Such data are either gathered by combining official estimates of urban populations from across countries or extracted from gridded population models that combine these estimates with geospatial data. These data sources provide varying estimates of urban populations and each approach has its advantages and limitations. In particular, official figures suffer from a lack of consistency in defining urban units (across both space and time) and often provide data for jurisdictions rather than the functionally meaningful urban area. On the other hand, gridded population models require a user-imposed definition to identify urban areas and are constrained by the modelling techniques and input data employed. To address these drawbacks, we combine these approaches by consolidating information from three established sources: (i) the Citypopulation.de (Brinkhoff, 2016); (ii) the World Urban Prospects data (United Nations, 2014); and (iii) the Global Human Settlements population grid (GHS-POP) (EC - JRC, 2015). We create urban footprints with GHS-POP and spatially merge georeferenced city points from both UN WUP and Citypopulation.de with these urban footprints to identify city points that belong to a single agglomeration. We create a consolidated dataset by combining population data from the UN WUP and Citypopulation.de. The flexible framework outlined can incorporate information from alternative inputs to identify urban clusters e.g. by using night-time lights, built-up area or alternative gridded population models (e.g WorldPop or Landscan) and the parameters employed (e.g. density thresholds for urban footprints) may also be adjusted, e.g., as a function of city-specific characteristics. Our consolidated dataset provides a wider and more accurate coverage of city populations to support studies of urbanization. We apply the data to re-examine Zipf's Law. Brinkhoff, Thomas. 2016. City Population.EC - JRC; Columbia University, CIESIN. 2015. GHS population grid, derived from GPW4, multi-temporal (1975, 1990, 2000, 2015).United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division. 2014. World Urbanization Prospects: 2014 Revision.

What drives health care expenditure?--Baumol's model of 'unbalanced growth' revisited.

PubMed

Hartwig, Jochen

2008-05-01

The share of health care expenditure in GDP rises rapidly in virtually all OECD countries, causing increasing concern among politicians and the general public. Yet, economists have to date failed to reach an agreement on what the main determinants of this development are. This paper revisits Baumol's [Baumol, W.J., 1967. Macroeconomics of unbalanced growth: the anatomy of urban crisis. American Economic Review 57 (3), 415-426] model of 'unbalanced growth', showing that the latter offers a ready explanation for the observed inexorable rise in health care expenditure. The main implication of Baumol's model in this context is that health care expenditure is driven by wage increases in excess of productivity growth. This hypothesis is tested empirically using data from a panel of 19 OECD countries. Our tests yield robust evidence in favor of Baumol's theory.

Regional assessment of North America: Urbanization trends, biodiversity patterns, and ecosystem services

USGS Publications Warehouse

McPhearson, Timon; Auch, Roger F.; Alberti, Marina

2013-01-01

North America contains some of the most urbanized landscapes in the world. In the United States (U.S.) and Canada, approximately 80 % of the population is urban, with Mexico slightly less (Kaiser Family Foundation 2013). Population growth combined with economic growth has fueled recent urban land expansion in North America. Between 1970 and 2000, urban land area expanded at a rate of 3.31 % (Seto et al. 2011) creating unique challenges for conserving biodiversity and maintaining regional and local ecosystem services.

Using GIS and Teledetection data to assess mobility and land consumption in polynucleated landscapes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Marmolejo Duarte, Carlos; Tornés Fernández, Moira

2014-03-01

Polycentrism has become the keystone in a major number of regional and urban policies, since it has been seen as a sustainable and equilibrated urban model. In this paper, the problem has been focused in case study the biggest metropolitan areas in Spain and pretends test whether polycentric urban growth does effectively reduce land consumption and travel-to-work journeys, protecting in this way agricultural and forest areas around cities and at the same time reducing energy and air emissions produced by cars. The methodology used has been departed from land-use, transport and census data, and using ArcGIS and TransCAD a group of spatial indicators is calculated and introduced in a family of regression models, where explained variables are per capita land consumption and excess commuting respectively. The results suggest that polynucleation has little effect both in the reduction of land consumption and excess commuting. On the contrary, other variables associated to urban form do highly influence land and mobility patterns, such as fragmentation of urban fabrics, job ratio balance, and the diversity of economic activities and housing offer. Such conclusions may shed light in the design of urban policies, and focus the attention on the definition of small-scale urban variables instead of structural ones at metropolitan scale.

Monitoring the trajectory of urban nighttime light hotspots using a Gaussian volume model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zheng, Qiming; Jiang, Ruowei; Wang, Ke; Huang, Lingyan; Ye, Ziran; Gan, Muye; Ji, Biyong

2018-03-01

Urban nighttime light hotspot is an ideal representation of the spatial heterogeneity of human activities within a city, which is sensitive to regional urban expansion pattern. However, most of previous studies related to nighttime light imageries focused on extracting urban extent, leaving the spatial variation of radiance intensity insufficiently explored. With the help of global radiance calibrated DMSP-OLS datasets (NTLgrc), we proposed an innovative framework to explore the spatio-temporal trajectory of polycentric urban nighttime light hotspots. Firstly, NTLgrc was inter-annually calibrated to improve the consistency. Secondly, multi-resolution segmentation and region-growing SVM classification were employed to remove blooming effect and to extract potential clusters. At last, the urban hotspots were identified by a Gaussian volume model, and the resulting parameters were used to quantitatively depict hotspot features (i.e., intensity, morphology and centroid dynamics). The result shows that our framework successfully captures hotspots in polycentric urban area, whose Ra2 are over 0.9. Meanwhile, the spatio-temporal dynamics of the hotspot features intuitively reveal the impact of the regional urban growth pattern and planning strategies on human activities. Compared to previous studies, our framework is more robust and offers an effective way to describe hotspot pattern. Also, it provides a more comprehensive and spatial-explicit understanding regarding the interaction between urbanization pattern and human activities. Our findings are expected to be beneficial to governors in term of sustainable urban planning and decision making.

Intra-Urban Movement Flow Estimation Using Location Based Social Networking Data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kheiri, A.; Karimipour, F.; Forghani, M.

2015-12-01

In recent years, there has been a rapid growth of location-based social networking services, such as Foursquare and Facebook, which have attracted an increasing number of users and greatly enriched their urban experience. Location-based social network data, as a new travel demand data source, seems to be an alternative or complement to survey data in the study of mobility behavior and activity analysis because of its relatively high access and low cost. In this paper, three OD estimation models have been utilized in order to investigate their relative performance when using Location-Based Social Networking (LBSN) data. For this, the Foursquare LBSN data was used to analyze the intra-urban movement behavioral patterns for the study area, Manhattan, the most densely populated of the five boroughs of New York city. The outputs of models are evaluated using real observations based on different criterions including distance distribution, destination travel constraints. The results demonstrate the promising potential of using LBSN data for urban travel demand analysis and monitoring.

A Conceptual Approach for Optimising Bus Stop Spacing

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Johar, Amita; Jain, S. S.; Garg, P. k.

2017-06-01

An efficient public transportation system is essential of any country. The growth, development and shape of the urban areas are mainly due to availability of good transportation (Shah et al. in Inst Town Plan India J 5(3):50-59, 1). In developing countries, like India, travel by local bus in a city is very common. The accidents, congestion, pollution and appropriate location of bus stops are the major problems arising in metropolitan cities. Among all the metropolitan cities in India, Delhi has highest percentage of growth of population and vehicles. Therefore, it is important to adopt efficient and effective ways to improve mobility in different metropolitan cities in order to overcome the problem and to reduce the number of private vehicles on the road. The primary objective of this paper is to present a methodology for developing a model for optimum bus stop spacing (OBSS). It describes the evaluation of existing urban bus route, data collection, development of model for optimizing urban bus route and application of model. In this work, the bus passenger generalized cost method is used to optimize the spacing between bus stops. For the development of model, a computer program is required to be written. The applicability of the model has been evaluated by taking the data of urban bus route of Delhi Transport Corporation (DTC) in Excel sheet in first phase. Later on, it is proposed to develop a programming in C++ language. The developed model is expected to be useful to transport planner for rational design of the spacing of bus stops to save travel time and to generalize operating cost. After analysis it is found that spacing between the bus stop comes out to be between 250 and 500 m. The Proposed Spacing of bus stops is done considering the points that they don't come nearer to metro/rail station, entry or exit of flyover and near traffic signal.

Tree Productivity Enhanced with Conversion from Forest to Urban Land Covers.

PubMed

Briber, Brittain M; Hutyra, Lucy R; Reinmann, Andrew B; Raciti, Steve M; Dearborn, Victoria K; Holden, Christopher E; Dunn, Allison L

2015-01-01

Urban areas are expanding, changing the structure and productivity of landscapes. While some urban areas have been shown to hold substantial biomass, the productivity of these systems is largely unknown. We assessed how conversion from forest to urban land uses affected both biomass structure and productivity across eastern Massachusetts. We found that urban land uses held less than half the biomass of adjacent forest expanses with a plot level mean biomass density of 33.5 ± 8.0 Mg C ha(-1). As the intensity of urban development increased, the canopy cover, stem density, and biomass decreased. Analysis of Quercus rubra tree cores showed that tree-level basal area increment nearly doubled following development, increasing from 17.1 ± 3.0 to 35.8 ± 4.7 cm(2) yr(-1). Scaling the observed stem densities and growth rates within developed areas suggests an aboveground biomass growth rate of 1.8 ± 0.4 Mg C ha(-1) yr(-1), a growth rate comparable to nearby, intact forests. The contrasting high growth rates and lower biomass pools within urban areas suggest a highly dynamic ecosystem with rapid turnover. As global urban extent continues to grow, cities consider climate mitigation options, and as the verification of net greenhouse gas emissions emerges as critical for policy, quantifying the role of urban vegetation in regional-to-global carbon budgets will become ever more important.

Tree Productivity Enhanced with Conversion from Forest to Urban Land Covers

PubMed Central

Briber, Brittain M.; Hutyra, Lucy R.; Reinmann, Andrew B.; Raciti, Steve M.; Dearborn, Victoria K.; Holden, Christopher E.; Dunn, Allison L.

2015-01-01

Urban areas are expanding, changing the structure and productivity of landscapes. While some urban areas have been shown to hold substantial biomass, the productivity of these systems is largely unknown. We assessed how conversion from forest to urban land uses affected both biomass structure and productivity across eastern Massachusetts. We found that urban land uses held less than half the biomass of adjacent forest expanses with a plot level mean biomass density of 33.5 ± 8.0 Mg C ha-1. As the intensity of urban development increased, the canopy cover, stem density, and biomass decreased. Analysis of Quercus rubra tree cores showed that tree-level basal area increment nearly doubled following development, increasing from 17.1 ± 3.0 to 35.8 ± 4.7 cm2 yr-1. Scaling the observed stem densities and growth rates within developed areas suggests an aboveground biomass growth rate of 1.8 ± 0.4 Mg C ha-1 yr-1, a growth rate comparable to nearby, intact forests. The contrasting high growth rates and lower biomass pools within urban areas suggest a highly dynamic ecosystem with rapid turnover. As global urban extent continues to grow, cities consider climate mitigation options, and as the verification of net greenhouse gas emissions emerges as critical for policy, quantifying the role of urban vegetation in regional-to-global carbon budgets will become ever more important. PMID:26302444

Dynamic reserve selection: Optimal land retention with land-price feedbacks

Treesearch

Sandor F. Toth; Robert G. Haight; Luke W. Rogers

2011-01-01

Urban growth compromises open space and ecosystem functions. To mitigate the negative effects, some agencies use reserve selection models to identify conservation sites for purchase or retention. Existing models assume that conservation has no impact on nearby land prices. We propose a new integer program that relaxes this assumption via adaptive cost coefficients. Our...

Community-Oriented Primary Care in Action: A Dallas Story

PubMed Central

Pickens, Sue; Boumbulian, Paul; Anderson, Ron J.; Ross, Samuel; Phillips, Sharon

2002-01-01

Dallas County, Texas, is the site of the largest urban application of the community-oriented primary care (COPC) model in the United States. We summarize the development and implementation of Dallas’s Parkland Health & Hospital System COPC program. The complexities of implementing and managing this comprehensive community-based program are delineated in terms of Dallas County’s political environment and the components of COPC (assessment, prioritization, community collaboration, health care system, evaluation, and financing). Steps to be taken to ensure the future growth and development of the Dallas program are also considered. The COPC model, as implemented by Parkland, is replicable in other urban areas. PMID:12406794

Estimating current and future global urban domestic material consumption

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Baynes, Timothy Malcolm; Kaviti Musango, Josephine

2018-06-01

Urban material resource requirements are significant at the global level and these are expected to expand with future urban population growth. However, there are no global scale studies on the future material consumption of urban areas. This paper provides estimates of global urban domestic material consumption (DMC) in 2050 using three approaches based on: current gross statistics; a regression model; and a transition theoretic logistic model. All methods use UN urban population projections and assume a simple ‘business-as-usual’ scenario wherein historical aggregate trends in income and material flow continue into the future. A collation of data for 152 cities provided a year 2000 world average DMC/capita estimate, 12 tons/person/year (±22%), which we combined with UN population projections to produce a first-order estimation of urban DMC at 2050 of ~73 billion tons/year (±22%). Urban DMC/capita was found to be significantly correlated (R 2 > 0.9) to urban GDP/capita and area per person through a power law relation used to obtain a second estimate of 106 billion tons (±33%) in 2050. The inelastic exponent of the power law indicates a global tendency for relative decoupling of direct urban material consumption with increasing income. These estimates are global and influenced by the current proportion of developed-world cities in the global population of cities (and in our sample data). A third method employed a logistic model of transitions in urban DMC/capita with regional resolution. This method estimated global urban DMC to rise from approximately 40 billion tons/year in 2010 to ~90 billion tons/year in 2050 (modelled range: 66–111 billion tons/year). DMC/capita across different regions was estimated to converge from a range of 5–27 tons/person/year in the year 2000 to around 8–17 tons/person/year in 2050. The urban population does not increase proportionally during this period and thus the global average DMC/capita increases from ~12 to ~14 tons/person/year, challenging resource decoupling targets.

Urban chaos and replacement dynamics in nature and society

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chen, Yanguang

2014-11-01

Replacements resulting from competition are ubiquitous phenomena in both nature and society. The evolution of a self-organized system is always a physical process substituting one type of components for another type of components. A logistic model of replacement dynamics has been proposed in terms of technical innovation and urbanization, but it fails to arouse widespread attention in the academia. This paper is devoted to laying the foundations of general replacement principle by using analogy and induction. The empirical base of this study is urban replacement, including urbanization and urban growth. The sigmoid functions can be employed to model various processes of replacement. Many mathematical methods such as allometric scaling and head/tail breaks can be applied to analyzing the processes and patterns of replacement. Among varied sigmoid functions, the logistic function is the basic and the simplest model of replacement dynamics. A new finding is that replacement can be associated with chaos in a nonlinear system, e.g., urban chaos is just a part of replacement dynamics. The aim of developing replacement theory is at understanding complex interaction and conversion. This theory provides a new way of looking at urbanization, technological innovation and diffusion, Volterra-Lotka’s predator-prey interaction, man-land relation, and dynastic changes resulting from peasant uprising, and all that. Especially, the periodic oscillations and chaos of replacement dynamics can be used to explain and predict the catastrophic occurrences in the physical and human systems.

Spatiotemporal analysis of urban environment based on the vegetation-impervious surface-soil model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Guo, Huadong; Huang, Qingni; Li, Xinwu; Sun, Zhongchang; Zhang, Ying

2014-01-01

This study explores a spatiotemporal comparative analysis of urban agglomeration, comparing the Greater Toronto and Hamilton Area (GTHA) of Canada and the city of Tianjin in China. The vegetation-impervious surface-soil (V-I-S) model is used to quantify the ecological composition of urban/peri-urban environments with multitemporal Landsat images (3 stages, 18 scenes) and LULC data from 1985 to 2005. The support vector machine algorithm and several knowledge-based methods are applied to get the V-I-S component fractions at high accuracies. The statistical results show that the urban expansion in the GTHA occurred mainly between 1985 and 1999, and only two districts revealed increasing trends for impervious surfaces for the period from 1999 to 2005. In contrast, Tianjin has been experiencing rapid urban sprawl at all stages and this has been accelerating since 1999. The urban growth patterns in the GTHA evolved from a monocentric and dispersed pattern to a polycentric and aggregated pattern, while in Tianjin it changed from monocentric to polycentric. Central Tianjin has become more centralized, while most other municipal areas have developed dispersed patterns. The GTHA also has a higher level of greenery and a more balanced ecological environment than Tianjin. These differences in the two areas may play an important role in urban planning and decision-making in developing countries.

Modeling The Urban Impact On Semiarid Surface Climate: A Case Study In Marrakesh, Morocco

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lachir, Asia; Bounoua, Lahouari; Zhang, Ping; Thome, Kurtis; Messouli, Mohamed

2016-01-01

We combine Landsat and MODIS data in the Simple Biosphere Model to assess the impact of urbanization on surface climate in a semiarid city in North Africa. The model simulates highest temperatures in urban class, with spring average maximum temperature differences to other land cover classes ranging between 1.6 C and 6.0 C. During summer, these maximum temperature differences are smallest (0.5 C) with barelands and highest (8.3 C) with irrigated lawns. This excess heating is simulated above and beyond a seasonal temperature average of about 30 C during spring and 44 C during summer. On annual mean, a full urbanization scenario decreases the carbon fixation by 0.13 MtC and increases the daytime mean surface temperature by 1.3 C. This may boost the city energy consumption by 5.72%. Under a 'smart growth' scenario, whereby the city expands on barelands to cover 50% of the study region and all remaining barelands converted to orchards, the carbon fixation is enhanced by 0.04 MtC with a small daytime temperature increase of 0.2 C. Our results indicate that vegetation can mitigate the urban heating. The hydrological cycle indicates that highest ratio of surface runoff to precipitation (43.8%) occurs in urban areas, versus only 16.7 % for all cover types combined.

Modeling the Urban Impact on Semiarid Surface Climate: A Case Study in Marrakech, Morocco

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lachir, Asia; Bounoua, Lahouari; Zhang, Ping; Thome, Kurtis; Moussouli, Mohamed

2016-01-01

We combine Landsat and MODIS data in the Simple Biosphere Model to assess the impact of urbanization on surface climate in a semiarid city in North Africa. The model simulates highest temperatures in urban class, with spring average maximum temperature differences to other land cover classes ranging between 1.6 C and 6.0 C. During summer, these maximum temperature differences are smallest (0.5 C) with barelands and highest (8.3 C) with irrigated lawns. This excess heating is simulated above and beyond a seasonal temperature average of about 30 C during spring and 44 C during summer. On annual mean, a full urbanization scenario decreases the carbon fixation by 0.13 MtC and increases the daytime mean surface temperature by 1.3 C. This may boost the city energy consumption by 5.72%. Under a 'smart growth' scenario, whereby the city expands on barelands to cover 50% of the study region and all remaining barelands converted to orchards, the carbon fixation is enhanced by 0.04 MtC with a small daytime temperature increase of 0.2 C. Our results indicate that vegetation can mitigate the urban heating. The hydrological cycle indicates that highest ratio of surface runoff to precipitation (43.8%) occurs in urban areas, versus only 16.7 % for all cover types combined.

Multi-scaling allometric analysis for urban and regional development

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chen, Yanguang

2017-01-01

The concept of allometric growth is based on scaling relations, and it has been applied to urban and regional analysis for a long time. However, most allometric analyses were devoted to the single proportional relation between two elements of a geographical system. Few researches focus on the allometric scaling of multielements. In this paper, a process of multiscaling allometric analysis is developed for the studies on spatio-temporal evolution of complex systems. By means of linear algebra, general system theory, and by analogy with the analytical hierarchy process, the concepts of allometric growth can be integrated with the ideas from fractal dimension. Thus a new methodology of geo-spatial analysis and the related theoretical models emerge. Based on the least squares regression and matrix operations, a simple algorithm is proposed to solve the multiscaling allometric equation. Applying the analytical method of multielement allometry to Chinese cities and regions yields satisfying results. A conclusion is reached that the multiscaling allometric analysis can be employed to make a comprehensive evaluation for the relative levels of urban and regional development, and explain spatial heterogeneity. The notion of multiscaling allometry may enrich the current theory and methodology of spatial analyses of urban and regional evolution.

Dendritic Connectivity, Heterogeneity, and Scaling in Urban Stormwater Networks: Implications for Socio-Hydrology

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mejia, A.; Jovanovic, T.; Hale, R. L.; Gironas, J. A.

2017-12-01

Urban stormwater networks (USNs) are unique dendritic (tree-like) structures that combine both artificial (e.g., swales and pipes) and natural (e.g., streams and wetlands) components. They are central to stream ecosystem structure and function in urban watersheds. The emphasis of conventional stormwater management, however, has been on localized, temporal impacts (e.g., changes to hydrographs at discrete locations), and the performance of individual stormwater control measures. This is the case even though control measures are implemented to prevent impacts on the USN. We develop a modeling approach to retrospectively study hydrological fluxes and states in USNs and apply the model to an urban watershed in Scottsdale, Arizona, USA. Using outputs from the model, we analyze over space and time the network properties of dendritic connectivity, heterogeneity, and scaling. Results show that as the network growth over time, due to increasing urbanization, it tends to become more homogenous in terms of topological features but increasingly heterogeneous in terms of dynamic features. We further use the modeling results to address socio-hydrological implications for USNs. We find that the adoption over time of evolving management strategies (e.g., widespread implementation of vegetated swales and retention ponds versus pipes) may be locally beneficial to the USN but benefits may not propagate systematically through the network. The latter can be reinforced by sudden, perhaps unintended, changes to the overall dendritic connectivity.

Assessing the effects of urbanization and climate change on groundwater management in China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hua, S.; Zheng, C.

2017-12-01

Groundwater is expected to be more vulnerable in the future due to climate change coupled with rapid urbanization. Thus, protecting future groundwater resources under the impact of urbanization and climate change is necessary towards more sustainable groundwater resource development. This study is intended to shed lights on how water managers may plan for the adverse effects of urbanization and climate change on groundwater quality. A new approach is presented in which the groundwater vulnerability under future climate change scenarios is employed as a constraint to urban expansion. An original form of the Land Transformation Model (LTM) and a revised LTM simulation are applied to model the urbanization. The results indicated that there would be a notable and uneven urban growth between 2010 and 2050. Future groundwater vulnerability is expected to shift significantly under future climate change scenarios. The results of the revised LTM project more urban expansion in the central regions of China, while those of the original LTM project urban expansion in throughout China, although the two projections have the same areas of expansion. The urban expansion simulated by the original LTM follows the historical trend under the drivers of socioeconomic, political and geographic factors. However, the revised LTM drives the urban expansion to the regions with relatively lower groundwater vulnerability, in contrast to the historical trend. This study demonstrates that the integration of LTM and future groundwater vulnerability in the urban planning can better protect the groundwater resource and promote more sustainable socioeconomic development. The methodology developed in this study provides water managers and city planners a useful groundwater management tool for mitigating the risks associated with rapid urbanization and climate change.

Urban compaction vs city sprawl: impact of road traffic on air quality in the greater Paris

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Etuman Arthur, Elessa; Isabelle, Coll; Vincent, Viguie; Nicolas, Coulombel; Julie, Prud'homme

2017-04-01

Urban pollution remains a major sanitary and economic concern. In France, particulate pollution is known to cause 48,000 premature deaths every year (Santé Publique France, 2016), while the economic cost of air pollution reaches almost 25 billion euros per year (CGDD, 2012). In the Greater Paris, despite strengthened emission standards, restricted traffic areas, car-sharing and incentives for electric vehicle use, road transport plays a substantial role in the exposure of inhabitants to high levels of pollutants. In this context, urban planning could possibly constitute an innovative strategy to reduce emissions from road traffic, through its actions on transport demand, travel distances, modal shift (public transportation, cycling, walking...) or even proximity to emitters. We have developed a multi-scalar modeling of urban pollution by coupling an urban economic growth model NEDUM (CIRED), a model for urban mobility (LISA), a traffic emission model (LISA) and the CHIMERE Chemistry-Transport model (CTM) for air quality simulation (LISA). The innovative aspect of this modeling system is to integrate into a classic CTM the mechanisms underlying the dynamics of an urban system. This way, we establish a quantitative and comprehensive link between a given urban scenario, the associated public and individual transport matrix, and local air quality. We then make it possible to highlight the levers of energy consumption reductions inside compact or sprawled cities. We have been working on the Ile de France region (centered on the Paris agglomeration) which relies on a broad urban structure of megacity, a high density of housing and an expanding urban peripheral zone, clearly raising the issue of transport demand, mobility and traffic congestion. Two scenarios, considering opposite urban development policies from the 1960s to 2010, have been simulated over the whole modelling chain. The first one promotes a dense and compact city while the second favors city spread, though restricted by a green belt. In our results, we compare the local air quality simulated in these scenarios with our reference situation (the current 2010 situation). The spreading or densification of the city contribute a little to the air quality and therefore a reflection on a real mix of the urban canvas is probably an influencing factor for the reduction of the motorized mobility. We should also consider more advanced scenarios (in the course of production) for the reduction of individual transport like encouraging car-pooling, which has a maximum daily trip reduction potential of 16% in urban areas (CGDD, 2014).

Does the design and implementation of proven innovations for delivering basic primary health care services in rural communities fit the urban setting: the case of Ghana’s Community-based Health Planning and Services (CHPS)

PubMed Central

2014-01-01

Background Rapid urban population growth is of global concern as it is accompanied with several new health challenges. The urban poor who reside in informal settlements are more vulnerable to these health challenges. Lack of formal government public health facilities for the provision of health care is also a common phenomenon among communities inhabited by the urban poor. To help ameliorate this situation, an innovative urban primary health system was introduced in urban Ghana, based on the milestones model developed with the rural Community-Based Health Planning and Services (CHPS) system. This paper provides an overview of innovative experiences adapted while addressing these urban health issues, including the process of deriving constructive lessons needed to inform discourse on the design and implementation of the sustainable Community-Based Health Planning and Services (CHPS) model as a response to urban health challenges in Southern Ghana. Methods This research was conducted during the six-month pilot of the urban CHPS programme in two selected areas acting as the intervention and control arms of the design. Daily routine data were collected based on milestones initially delineated for the rural CHPS model in the control communities whilst in the intervention communities, some modifications were made to the rural milestones. Results The findings from the implementation activities revealed that many of the best practices derived from the rural CHPS experiment could not be transplanted to poor urban settlements due to the unique organizational structures and epidemiological characteristics found in the urban context. For example, constructing Community Health Compounds and residential facilities within zones, a central component to the rural CHPS strategy, proved inappropriate for the urban sector. Night and weekend home visit schedules were initiated to better accommodate urban residents and increase coverage. The breadth of the disease burden of the urban residents also requires a broader expertise and training of the CHOs. Conclusions Access to improved urban health services remains a challenge. However, current policy guidelines for the implementation of a primary health model based on rural experiences and experimental design requires careful review and modifications to meet the needs of the urban settings. PMID:24690310

Does the design and implementation of proven innovations for delivering basic primary health care services in rural communities fit the urban setting: the case of Ghana's Community-based Health Planning and Services (CHPS).

PubMed

Adongo, Philip Baba; Phillips, James F; Aikins, Moses; Arhin, Doris Afua; Schmitt, Margaret; Nwameme, Adanna U; Tabong, Philip Teg-Nefaah; Binka, Fred N

2014-04-01

Rapid urban population growth is of global concern as it is accompanied with several new health challenges. The urban poor who reside in informal settlements are more vulnerable to these health challenges. Lack of formal government public health facilities for the provision of health care is also a common phenomenon among communities inhabited by the urban poor. To help ameliorate this situation, an innovative urban primary health system was introduced in urban Ghana, based on the milestones model developed with the rural Community-Based Health Planning and Services (CHPS) system. This paper provides an overview of innovative experiences adapted while addressing these urban health issues, including the process of deriving constructive lessons needed to inform discourse on the design and implementation of the sustainable Community-Based Health Planning and Services (CHPS) model as a response to urban health challenges in Southern Ghana. This research was conducted during the six-month pilot of the urban CHPS programme in two selected areas acting as the intervention and control arms of the design. Daily routine data were collected based on milestones initially delineated for the rural CHPS model in the control communities whilst in the intervention communities, some modifications were made to the rural milestones. The findings from the implementation activities revealed that many of the best practices derived from the rural CHPS experiment could not be transplanted to poor urban settlements due to the unique organizational structures and epidemiological characteristics found in the urban context. For example, constructing Community Health Compounds and residential facilities within zones, a central component to the rural CHPS strategy, proved inappropriate for the urban sector. Night and weekend home visit schedules were initiated to better accommodate urban residents and increase coverage. The breadth of the disease burden of the urban residents also requires a broader expertise and training of the CHOs. Access to improved urban health services remains a challenge. However, current policy guidelines for the implementation of a primary health model based on rural experiences and experimental design requires careful review and modifications to meet the needs of the urban settings.

Comparing approaches to spatially explicit ecosystem service modeling: a case study from the San Pedro River, Arizona

USGS Publications Warehouse

Bagstad, Kenneth J.; Semmens, Darius J.; Winthrop, Robert

2013-01-01

Although the number of ecosystem service modeling tools has grown in recent years, quantitative comparative studies of these tools have been lacking. In this study, we applied two leading open-source, spatially explicit ecosystem services modeling tools – Artificial Intelligence for Ecosystem Services (ARIES) and Integrated Valuation of Ecosystem Services and Tradeoffs (InVEST) – to the San Pedro River watershed in southeast Arizona, USA, and northern Sonora, Mexico. We modeled locally important services that both modeling systems could address – carbon, water, and scenic viewsheds. We then applied managerially relevant scenarios for urban growth and mesquite management to quantify ecosystem service changes. InVEST and ARIES use different modeling approaches and ecosystem services metrics; for carbon, metrics were more similar and results were more easily comparable than for viewsheds or water. However, findings demonstrate similar gains and losses of ecosystem services and conclusions when comparing effects across our scenarios. Results were more closely aligned for landscape-scale urban-growth scenarios and more divergent for a site-scale mesquite-management scenario. Follow-up studies, including testing in different geographic contexts, can improve our understanding of the strengths and weaknesses of these and other ecosystem services modeling tools as they move closer to readiness for supporting day-to-day resource management.

Friend or Foe? Urbanization and the Biosphere

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schneider, A.

2008-12-01

The environmental influence of urban areas is still often assumed to be negligible at global scales. Although local environmental conditions such as the urban heat island effect are well-documented, surprisingly little work has focused on cross-scale interactions, or the ways in which local urban processes cumulatively impact global changes. Given the rapid rates of rural-urban migration, economic development and urban spatial expansion, improved systems for measuring, monitoring and modeling the global environmental impacts of cities should receive far greater scientific attention. This presentation will summarize urban environmental issues and impacts at local, regional and global scales and introduce the fundamental concepts and tools needed to measure and respond to these problems. Newly available datasets for the distribution and intensity of urban land use will be introduced, demonstrating the importance of clearly defining 'urbanized' land for empirical studies at the global scale. The negative environmental impacts of urban development will be compared with the often over-looked "positives" of urban growth from a global environmental perspective. Progress in understanding and forecasting the global impacts of urban areas will require systematic global urban research designs that treat cities as urban systems, anthropogenic biomes and urban ecoregions. The challenges and opportunities of global environmental research on urban areas have important implications not only for current research but also for educating the next generation of earth system scientists.

Urbanization and Slum Formation

PubMed Central

Phua, Kai Hong

2007-01-01

The formation of slums need not be inevitable with rapid urbanization. Such an argument appears to be contradicted by evidence of large slum populations in a large number of developing countries and particularly in rapidly urbanizing regions like Asia. The evidence discussed suggests that city authorities faced with rapid urban development lack the capacity to cope with the diverse demands for infrastructural provision to meet economic and social needs. Not only are strategic planning and intervention major issues in agenda to manage rapid urbanization, but city governments are not effectively linking the economic development trajectory to implications for urban growth and, hence, housing needs. In the following discussion, a case study is presented in support of the argument that city governments have to first recognize and then act to establish the link that is crucial between economic development, urban growth, and housing. This is the agendum that has been largely neglected by city and national governments that have been narrowly focused on economic growth with the consequent proliferation of slum formation as a housing solution. PMID:17387618

Exploring the response of net primary productivity variations to urban expansion and climate change: a scenario analysis for Guangdong Province in China.

PubMed

Pei, Fengsong; Li, Xia; Liu, Xiaoping; Lao, Chunhua; Xia, Gengrui

2015-03-01

Urban land development alters landscapes and carbon cycle, especially net primary productivity (NPP). Despite projections that NPP is often reduced by urbanization, little is known about NPP changes under future urban expansion and climate change conditions. In this paper, terrestrial NPP was calculated by using Biome-BGC model. However, this model does not explicitly address urban lands. Hence, we proposed a method of NPP-fraction to detect future urban NPP, assuming that the ratio of real NPP to potential NPP for urban cells remains constant for decades. Furthermore, NPP dynamics were explored by integrating the Biome-BGC and the cellular automata (CA), a widely used method for modeling urban growth. Consequently, urban expansion, climate change and their associated effects on the NPP were analyzed for the period of 2010-2039 using Guangdong Province in China as a case study. In addition, four scenarios were designed to reflect future conditions, namely baseline, climate change, urban expansion and comprehensive scenarios. Our analyses indicate that vegetation NPP in urban cells may increase (17.63 gC m(-2) year(-1)-23.35 gC m(-2) year(-1)) in the climate change scenario. However, future urban expansion may cause some NPP losses of 241.61 gC m(-2) year(-1), decupling the NPP increase of the climate change factor. Taking into account both climate change and urban expansion, vegetation NPP in urban area may decrease, minimally at a rate of 228.54 gC m(-2) year(-1) to 231.74 gC m(-2) year(-1). Nevertheless, they may account for an overall NPP increase of 0.78 TgC year(-1) to 1.28 TgC year(-1) in the whole province. All these show that the provincial NPP increase from climate change may offset the NPP decrease from urban expansion. Despite these results, it is of great significance to regulate reasonable expansion of urban lands to maintain carbon balance. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Indonesia's migration transition.

PubMed

Hugo, G

1995-01-01

This article describes population movements in Indonesia in the context of rapid and marked social and economic change. Foreign investment in Indonesia is increasing, and global mass media is available to many households. Agriculture is being commercialized, and structural shifts are occurring in the economy. Educational levels are increasing, and women's role and status are shifting. Population migration has increased over the decades, both short and long distance, permanent and temporary, legal and illegal, and migration to and between urban areas. This article focuses specifically on rural-to-urban migration and international migration. Population settlements are dense in the agriculturally rich inner areas of Java, Bali, and Madura. Although the rate of growth of the gross domestic product was 6.8% annually during 1969-94, the World Bank ranked Indonesia as a low-income economy in 1992 because of the large population size. Income per capita is US $670. Indonesia is becoming a large exporter of labor to the Middle East, particularly women. The predominance of women as overseas contract workers is changing women's role and status in the family and is controversial due to the cases of mistreatment. Malaysia's high economic growth rate of over 8% per year means an additional 1.3 million foreign workers and technicians are needed. During the 1980s urban growth increased at a very rapid rate. Urban growth tended to occur along corridors and major transportation routes around urban areas. It is posited that most of the urban growth is due to rural-to-urban migration. Data limitations prevent an exact determination of the extent of rural-to-urban migration. More women are estimated to be involved in movements to cities during the 1980s compared to the 1970s. Recruiters and middlemen have played an important role in rural-to-urban migration and international migration.

The future is urban.

PubMed

1992-05-01

Urban centers are growing due to natural increase and the movement of people from rural areas. Urban areas are the traditional centers of trade, science, and culture, but growth over a threshold results in crime, congestion, and pollution. Sustainability is threatened in modern towns that are dependent on other sources for food, fuel, or water. Housing, water, food supplies, and sanitation, communication, and transportation services are threatened in rapidly growing cities. In 1990 45/100 people lived in towns or cities. Hyper-cities have grown in number to 20, of which 14 are in developing countries. 83% of world population increase is expected to occur in cities. In 48 countries with faster population growth cities had growth rates averaging about 6.1% per year, and the urban share of total population averaged 2.8%. In 49 countries with slower population growth, urban growth rates averaged only 3.6% per year, and the urban share of total population averaged about 1.8%. Squatter settlements are endemic to urban areas that are congested and without basic services, limited housing particularly for the poor, and few job opportunities. The number of street children in urban areas has risen. This child population is subjected to low wages, overwork, auto accidents, poor health, and lack of social services. Malnutrition is a more serious issue in urban areas. In the Philippines malnutrition is 3% nationally and 9% in Metro Manila. Rural land reform in the Philippines is no longer a viable solution. In Metro Manila squatters are expected to increase in number to 4 million people by the year 2000, which would be almost 50% of total population. The squatter areas are areas of neglect, decay, and poverty. Cities are viewed as development's "blind alleys."

An obsolete dichotomy? Rethinking the rural–urban interface in terms of food security and production in the global south.

PubMed

Lerner, Amy M; Eakin, Hallie

2011-01-01

The global food system is coming under increasing strain in the face of urban population growth. The recent spike in global food prices (2007–08) provoked consumer protests, and raised questions about food sovereignty and how and where food will be produced. Concurrently, for the first time in history the majority of the global population is urban, with the bulk of urban growth occurring in smaller-tiered cities and urban peripheries, or ‘peri-urban’ areas of the developing world. This paper discusses the new emerging spaces that incorporate a mosaic of urban and rural worlds, and reviews the implications of these spaces for livelihoods and food security. We propose a modified livelihoods framework to evaluate the contexts in which food production persists within broader processes of landscape and livelihood transformation in peri-urban locations. Where and how food production persists are central questions for the future of food security in an urbanising world. Our proposed framework provides directions for future research and highlights the role of policy and planning in reconciling food production with urban growth.

Landscape analysis of urban growth patterns in Seremban, Malaysia, using spatio-temporal data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Aburas, Maher M.; Abdullah, Sabrina H.; Ramli, Mohammad F.; As'shari, Zulfa H.

2016-06-01

Urban growth is one of the major issues that have played a significant role in destroying the ecosystem in recent years. Landscape analysis is an important technique widely used to evaluate urban growth patterns. In this study, four land-use maps from 1984, 1990, 2000, and 2010 have been used to analyze an urban landscape. The values of a built-up area were initially computed using a geographic information system environment based on the spatial gradient approach. Mathematical matrices were then used to determine the amount of change in urban patches in each direction. Results of the number of patches, landscape shape index, aggregation index, and total edges confirmed that the urban patches in Seremban, Malaysia, have become more dispersed from 2000 to 2010. The urban patches have also become more continuous, especially in the north-western part of Seremban as a result of the urban development in the Nilai District. These results indicate the necessity to create new policies in the city to protect the sustainability of the land use of Seremban.

Analysing the impact of urban areas patterns on the mean annual flow of 43 urbanized catchments

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Salavati, B.; Oudin, L.; Furusho, C.; Ribstein, P.

2015-06-01

It is often argued that urban areas play a significant role in catchment hydrology, but previous studies reported disparate results of urbanization impacts on stream flow. This might stem either from the difficulty to quantify the historical flow changes attributed to urbanization only (and not climate variability) or from the inability to decipher what type of urban planning is more critical for flows. In this study, we applied a hydrological model on 43 urban catchments in the United States to quantify the flow changes attributable to urbanization. Then, we tried to relate these flow changes to the changes of urban/impervious areas of the catchments. We argue that these spatial changes of urban areas can be more precisely characterized by landscape metrics, which enable analysing the patterns of historical urban growth. Landscape metrics combine the richness (the number) and evenness (the spatial distribution) of patch types represented on the landscape. Urbanization patterns within the framework of patch analysis have been widely studied but, to our knowledge, previous research works had not linked them to catchments hydrological behaviours. Our results showed that the catchments with larger impervious areas and larger mean patch areas are likely to have larger increase of runoff yield.

Simulated Climate Impacts of Mexico City's Historical Urban Expansion

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Benson-Lira, Valeria

Urbanization, a direct consequence of land use and land cover change, is responsible for significant modification of local to regional scale climates. It is projected that the greatest urban growth of this century will occur in urban areas in the developing world. In addition, there is a significant research gap in emerging nations concerning this topic. Thus, this research focuses on the assessment of climate impacts related to urbanization on the largest metropolitan area in Latin America: Mexico City. Numerical simulations using a state-of-the-science regional climate model are utilized to address a trio of scientifically relevant questions with wide global applicability. The importance of an accurate representation of land use and land cover is first demonstrated through comparison of numerical simulations against observations. Second, the simulated effect of anthropogenic heating is quantified. Lastly, numerical simulations are performed using pre-historic scenarios of land use and land cover to examine and quantify the impact of Mexico City's urban expansion and changes in surface water features on its regional climate.

Changing and Differentiated Urban Landscape in China: Spatiotemporal Patterns and Driving Forces.

PubMed

Fang, Chuanglin; Li, Guangdong; Wang, Shaojian

2016-03-01

Urban landscape spatiotemporal change patterns and their driving mechanisms in China are poorly understood at the national level. Here we used remote sensing data, landscape metrics, and a spatial econometric model to characterize the spatiotemporal patterns of urban landscape change and investigate its driving forces in China between 1990 and 2005. The results showed that the urban landscape pattern has experienced drastic changes over the past 15 years. Total urban area has expanded approximately 1.61 times, with a 2.98% annual urban-growth rate. Compared to previous single-city studies, although urban areas are expanding rapidly, the overall fragmentation of the urban landscape is decreasing and is more irregular and complex at the national level. We also found a stair-stepping, urban-landscape changing pattern among eastern, central, and western counties. In addition, administrative level, urban size, and hierarchy have effects on the urban landscape pattern. We also found that a combination of landscape metrics can be used to supplement our understanding of the pattern of urbanization. The changes in these metrics are correlated with geographical indicators, socioeconomic factors, infrastructure variables, administrative level factors, policy factors, and historical factors. Our results indicate that the top priority should be strengthening the management of urban planning. A compact and congregate urban landscape may be a good choice of pattern for urban development in China.

Urbanization and carbon dioxide emissions in Singapore: evidence from the ARDL approach.

PubMed

Ali, Hamisu Sadi; Abdul-Rahim, A S; Ribadu, Mohammed Bashir

2017-01-01

The main aim of this article is to examine empirically the impact of urbanization on carbon dioxide emissions in Singapore from 1970 to 2015. The autoregressive distributed lags (ARDL) approach is applied within the analysis. The main finding reveals a negative and significant impact of urbanization on carbon emissions in Singapore, which means that urban development in Singapore is not a barrier to the improvement of environmental quality. Thus, urbanization enhances environmental quality by reducing carbon emissions in the sample country. The result also highlighted that economic growth has a positive and significant impact on carbon emissions, which suggests that economic growth reduces environmental quality through its direct effect of increasing carbon emissions in the country. Despite the high level of urbanization in Singapore, which shows that 100 % of the populace is living in the urban center, it does not lead to more environmental degradation. Hence, urbanization will not be considered an obstacle when initiating policies that will be used to reduce environmental degradation in the country. Policy makers should consider the country's level of economic growth instead of urbanization when formulating policies to reduce environmental degradation, due to its direct impact on increasing carbon dioxide emissions.

Endless urban growth? On the mismatch of population, household and urban land area growth and its effects on the urban debate.

PubMed

Haase, Dagmar; Kabisch, Nadja; Haase, Annegret

2013-01-01

In European cities, the rate of population growth has declined significantly, while the number of households has increased. This increase in the number of households is associated with an increase in space for housing. To date, the effects of both a declining population and decreasing household numbers remain unclear. In this paper, we analyse the relationship between population and household number development in 188 European cities from 1990-2000 and 2000-2006 to the growth of urban land area and per capita living space. Our results support a trend toward decreasing population with simultaneously increasing household number. However, we also found cites facing both a declining population and a decreasing household number. Nevertheless, the urban land area of these "double-declining" cities has continued to spread because the increasing per capita living space counteracts a reduction in land consumption. We conclude that neither a decline in population nor in household number "automatically" solve the global problem of land consumption.

Quantifying changes in water use and groundwater availability in a megacity using novel integrated systems modeling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hyndman, D. W.; Xu, T.; Deines, J. M.; Cao, G.; Nagelkirk, R.; Viña, A.; McConnell, W.; Basso, B.; Kendall, A. D.; Li, S.; Luo, L.; Lupi, F.; Ma, D.; Winkler, J. A.; Yang, W.; Zheng, C.; Liu, J.

2017-08-01

Water sustainability in megacities is a growing challenge with far-reaching effects. Addressing sustainability requires an integrated, multidisciplinary approach able to capture interactions among hydrology, population growth, and socioeconomic factors and to reflect changes due to climate variability and land use. We developed a new systems modeling framework to quantify the influence of changes in land use, crop growth, and urbanization on groundwater storage for Beijing, China. This framework was then used to understand and quantify causes of observed decreases in groundwater storage from 1993 to 2006, revealing that the expansion of Beijing's urban areas at the expense of croplands has enhanced recharge while reducing water lost to evapotranspiration, partially ameliorating groundwater declines. The results demonstrate the efficacy of such a systems approach to quantify the impacts of changes in climate and land use on water sustainability for megacities, while providing a quantitative framework to improve mitigation and adaptation strategies that can help address future water challenges.

Linear growth increased in young children in an urban slum of Haiti: a randomized controlled trial of a lipid-based nutrient supplement.

PubMed

Iannotti, Lora L; Dulience, Sherlie Jean Louis; Green, Jamie; Joseph, Saminetha; François, Judith; Anténor, Marie-Lucie; Lesorogol, Carolyn; Mounce, Jacqueline; Nickerson, Nathan M

2014-01-01

Haiti has experienced rapid urbanization that has exacerbated poverty and undernutrition in large slum areas. Stunting affects 1 in 5 young children. We aimed to test the efficacy of a daily lipid-based nutrient supplement (LNS) for increased linear growth in young children. Healthy, singleton infants aged 6-11 mo (n = 589) were recruited from an urban slum of Cap Haitien and randomly assigned to receive: 1) a control; 2) a 3-mo LNS; or 3) a 6-mo LNS. The LNS provided 108 kcal and other nutrients including vitamin A, vitamin B-12, iron, and zinc at ≥80% of the recommended amounts. Infants were followed monthly on growth, morbidity, and developmental outcomes over a 6-mo intervention period and at one additional time point 6 mo postintervention to assess sustained effects. The Bonferroni multiple comparisons test was applied, and generalized least-squares (GLS) regressions with mixed effects was used to examine impacts longitudinally. Baseline characteristics did not differ by trial arm except for a higher mean age in the 6-mo LNS group. GLS modeling showed LNS supplementation for 6 mo significantly increased the length-for-age z score (±SE) by 0.13 ± 0.05 and the weight-for-age z score by 0.12 ± 0.02 compared with in the control group after adjustment for child age (P < 0.001). The effects were sustained 6 mo postintervention. Morbidity and developmental outcomes did not differ by trial arm. A low-energy, fortified product improved the linear growth of young children in this urban setting. The trial was registered at clinicaltrials.gov as NCT01552512.

Development of urban water consumption models for the City of Los Angeles

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mini, C.; Hogue, T. S.; Pincetl, S.

2011-12-01

Population growth and rapid urbanization coupled with uncertain climate change are causing new challenges for meeting urban water needs. In arid and semi-arid regions, increasing drought periods and decreasing precipitation have led to water supply shortages and cities are struggling with trade-offs between the water needs of growing urban populations and the well-being of urban ecosystems. The goal of the current research is to build models that can represent urban water use patterns in semi-arid cities by identifying the determinants that control both total and outdoor residential water use over the Los Angeles urban domain. The initial database contains monthly water use records aggregated to the zip code level collected from the Los Angeles Department of Water and Power (LADWP) from 2000 to 2010. Residential water use was normalized per capita and was correlated with socio-demographic, economic, climatic and vegetation characteristics across the City for the 2000-2010 period. Results show that ethnicity, per capita income, and the average number of persons per household are linearly related to total water use per capita. Inter-annual differences in precipitation and implementation of conservation measures affect water use levels across the City. The high variability in water use patterns across the City also appears strongly influenced by income and education levels. The temporal analysis of vegetation indices in the studied neighborhoods shows little correlation between precipitation patterns and vegetation greenness. Urban vegetation appears well-watered, presenting the same greenness activity over the study period despite an overall decrease in water use across the City. We hypothesize that over-watering is occurring and that outdoor water use represents a significant part of the residential water budget in various regions of the City. A multiple regression model has been developed that integrates these fundamental controlling factors to simulate residential water use patterns across the City. The performance of the linear regression model is being tested and compared with other algorithm-based simulations for improved modeling of urban water consumption in the region. Ultimately, projects results will contribute to the implementation of sustainable strategies targeted to specific urban areas for a growing population under uncertain climate variability.

Integrated rural development programs: a skeptical perspective.

PubMed

Ruttan, V W

1975-11-01

In examining integrated rural development programs the question that arises is why is it possible to identify several relatively successful small-scale or pilot rural development projects yet so difficult to find examples of successful rural development programs. 3 bodies of literature offer some insight into the morphology of rural development projects, programs, and processes: the urban-industrial impact hypothesis; the theory of induced technical change; and the new models of institutional change that deal with institution building and the economics of bureaucratic behavior. The urban-industrial impact hypothesis helps in the clarification of the relationships between the development of rural areas and the development of the total society of which rural areas are a part. It is useful in understanding the spatial dimensions of rural development where rural development efforts are likely to be most successful. Formulation of the hypothesis generated a series of empirical studies designed to test its validity. The effect of these studies has been the development of a rural development model in which the rural community is linked to the urban-industrial economy through a series of market relationships. Both the urban economy's rate of growth and the efficiency of the intersector product and factor markets place significant constraints on the possibilities of rural area development. It is not possible to isolate development processes in the contemporary rural community in a developing society from development processes in the larger society. The induced technical change theory provides a guide as to what must be done to gain access to efficient sources of economic growth, the new resources and incomes that are necessary to sustain rural development. Design of a successful rural development strategy involves a combination of technical and institutional change. The ability of rural areas to respond to the opportunities for economic growth generated by local urban-industrial development, or by the expansion of national and international markets, depends on the capacity for adaptive responses on the part of cultural, political, and economic institutions as well as on technical innovations which can generate substantial new income flows in response to the new economic opportunities. Improvements in the welfare of the rural population in poor regions will call for institutional innovations which effectively link urban and rural areas through a series of nonmarket and market relationships. A major implication of the models is that given the "markets" in which they operate, bureaucracies will be successful in capturing a relatively large share of the economic gains generated by their activities.

Urban growth patterns in major Southeast Asian cities: Toward exposure mapping and vulnerability assessment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mandapaka, Pradeep; Kamarajugedda, Shankar A.; Lo, Edmond Y. M.

2017-04-01

Southeast Asia (SEA) is undergoing rapid urbanization, with urban population percentage increasing from 32% in 1990 to 48% in 2015. It is projected that by the year 2040, urban regions in SEA account for 60% of its total population. The region is home to 600 million people, with many densely populated cities, including megacities such as Jakarta, Bangkok, and Manila. The region has more than 20,000 islands, and many cities lie on coastal low-lands and floodplains. These geographical characteristics together with the increasing population, infrastructure growth, and changing climate makes the region highly vulnerable to natural hazards. This study assessed urban growth dynamics in major (defined as population exceeding 1 million) SEA cities using remotely sensed night-time lights (NTL) data. A recently proposed brightness gradient approach was applied on 21 years (1992-2012) of NTL annual composites to derive core-urban (CU) and peri-urban (PU) regions within each city. The study also assessed the sensitivity of above extracted urban categories to different NTL thresholds. The temporal trends in CU and PU regions were quantified, and compared with trends in socio-economic indicators. The spatial expansion of CU and PU regions were found to depend on geographical constraints and socio-economic factors. Quantification of urban growth spatial-temporal patterns, as conducted here contributes towards the understanding of exposure and vulnerability of people and infrastructures to natural hazards, as well as the evolving trends for assessment under projected urbanization conditions. This will underpin better risk assessment efforts for present and future planning.

Generating Accurate Urban Area Maps from Nighttime Satellite (DMSP/OLS) Data

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Imhoff, Marc; Lawrence, William; Elvidge, Christopher

2000-01-01

There has been an increasing interest by the international research community to use the nighttime acquired "city-lights" data sets collected by the US Defense Meteorological Satellite Program's Operational Linescan system to study issues relative to urbanization. Many researchers are interested in using these data to estimate human demographic parameters over large areas and then characterize the interactions between urban development , natural ecosystems, and other aspects of the human enterprise. Many of these attempts rely on an ability to accurately identify urbanized area. However, beyond the simple determination of the loci of human activity, using these data to generate accurate estimates of urbanized area can be problematic. Sensor blooming and registration error can cause large overestimates of urban land based on a simple measure of lit area from the raw data. We discuss these issues, show results of an attempt to do a historical urban growth model in Egypt, and then describe a few basic processing techniques that use geo-spatial analysis to threshold the DMSP data to accurately estimate urbanized areas. Algorithm results are shown for the United States and an application to use the data to estimate the impact of urban sprawl on sustainable agriculture in the US and China is described.

Complex Controls on Groundwater Quality in Growing Mid-sized Cities: A Case Study Focused on Nitrate and Emerging Contaminants

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ohr, C. A.; Godsey, S.; Welhan, J. A.; Larson, D. M.; Lohse, K. A.; Finney, B.; Derryberry, D.

2015-12-01

Many regions rely on quality groundwater to support urban growth. Groundwater quality often responds in a complex manner to stressors such as land use change, climate change, or policy decisions. Urban growth patterns in mid-sized cities, especially ones that are growing urban centers in water-limited regions in the western US, control and are controlled by water availability and its quality. We present a case study from southeastern Idaho where urban growth over the past 20 years has included significant ex-urban expansion of houses that rely on septic systems rather than city sewer lines for their wastewater treatment. Septic systems are designed to mitigate some contaminants, but not others. In particular, nitrates and emerging contaminants, such as pharmaceuticals, are not removed by most septic systems. Thus, even well-maintained septic systems at sufficiently high densities can impact down gradient water quality. Here we present patterns of nitrate concentrations over the period from 1985-2015 from the Lower Portneuf River Valley in southeastern Idaho. Concentrations vary from 0.03 to 27.09 nitrate-nitrogen mg/L, with average values increasing significantly over the 30 year time period from 3.15 +/- 0.065 to 3.57 +/- 0.43 mg/L. We examine temporal changes in locations of nitrate hotspots, and present pilot data on emerging contaminants of concern. Initial results suggest that high nitrate levels are generally associated with higher septic densities, but that this pattern is influenced by legacy agricultural uses and strongly controlled by underlying aquifer properties. Future work will include more detailed hydrological modeling to predict changes in hotspot locations under potential climate change scenarios.

The Potential Role of Urban Forests in Removing Nutrients from Stormwater.

PubMed

Denman, E C; May, P B; Moore, G M

2016-01-01

Biofiltration systems can be used to improve the quality of stormwater by treating runoff using plants grown in a moderately permeable soil. Most biofilters use herbaceous species, but in highly urbanized locations, such as streets, trees may be a more suitable vegetation. Biofilters that use urban woody vegetation are less studied. This experiment investigated the use of four street tree species [ Schauer, (R. Br.) Peter G. Wilson & J.T. Waterh., (Sm.) Colvill ex Sweet, and L.] and an unplanted control in model biofilters. All four tree species are used in urban landscapes in southern Australia and were chosen to investigate potential species differences in biofiltration systems. The trees were grown in mesocosms as a randomized block factorial design in soils with three saturated hydraulic conductivity rates (4, 95, and 170 mm h). The trees were regularly flooded with mains water (tap water) or artificial stormwater. Tree growth and nutrient removal performance of the systems were investigated over 13 mo. All four species grew well in all three soils, including one chosen for its low, and potentially growth-limiting, drainage rate. Tree growth increased significantly, except for , when flooded with stormwater. Unplanted controls were a source of nutrients; however, the presence of trees reduced oxidized nitrogen and filterable reactive phosphorus concentrations in leachate. There was little effect of species on the removal of nutrients from stormwater. Trees have the potential to be effective elements in urban biofiltration systems, but further field-level evaluation of these systems is required to fully assess this potential. Copyright © by the American Society of Agronomy, Crop Science Society of America, and Soil Science Society of America, Inc.

Analysing Relationships Between Urban Land Use Fragmentation Metrics and Socio-Economic Variables

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sapena, M.; Ruiz, L. A.; Goerlich, F. J.

2016-06-01

Analysing urban regions is essential for their correct monitoring and planning. This is mainly accounted for the sharp increase of people living in urban areas, and consequently, the need to manage them. At the same time there has been a rise in the use of spatial and statistical datasets, such as the Urban Atlas, which offers high-resolution urban land use maps obtained from satellite imagery, and the Urban Audit, which provides statistics of European cities and their surroundings. In this study, we analyse the relations between urban fragmentation metrics derived from Land Use and Land Cover (LULC) data from the Urban Atlas dataset, and socio-economic data from the Urban Audit for the reference years 2006 and 2012. We conducted the analysis on a sample of sixty-eight Functional Urban Areas (FUAs). One-date and two-date based fragmentation indices were computed for each FUA, land use class and date. Correlation tests and principal component analysis were then applied to select the most representative indices. Finally, multiple regression models were tested to explore the prediction of socio-economic variables, using different combinations of land use metrics as explanatory variables, both at a given date and in a dynamic context. The outcomes show that demography, living conditions, labour, and transportation variables have a clear relation with the morphology of the FUAs. This methodology allows us to compare European FUAs in terms of the spatial distribution of the land use classes, their complexity, and their structural changes, as well as to preview and model different growth patterns and socio-economic indicators.

Assessment of Groundwater Resources of Dauphin Island and its Connection to Urban Sprawl and Economic Growth

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Petty, K. S.

2009-12-01

Dauphin Island is a barrier island about 28 miles south of Mobile, Alabama. The island relies heavily on the shallow aquifer underlying the barrier island. Worldwide, the largest volume of water used for human consumption and use comes from groundwater resources. On barrier islands such as Dauphin Island, the proportion of water used by humans coming from groundwater resources is even higher. Additionally, tourism is very important to the economy of Dauphin Island, and the hotels and tourist attractions rely on groundwater. Because of the large influx of people there are peaks in water demand during tourist season. The goal of this project is to quantify the impacts of urban growth on the aquifer and provide an estimate for sustainable withdrawal rates. The project will be carried out in two main phases. In the first phase a water resource assessment and analysis will be conducted using the SEAWAT model. SEAWAT simulates three-dimensional variable-density ground-water flow coupled with multi-species solute and heat transport. In the second phase the calibrated groundwater model for the island will be used to perform a scenario analysis which would help link groundwater availability with urban sprawl. In this paper we will describe the research methodology and procedures that will be used in the project.

Land cover change impact on urban flood modeling (case study: Upper Citarum watershed)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Siregar, R. I.

2018-03-01

The upper Citarum River watershed utilizes remote sensing technology in Geographic Information System to provide information on land coverage by interpretation of objects in the image. Rivers that pass through urban areas will cause flooding problems causing disadvantages, and it disrupts community activities in the urban area. Increased development in a city is related to an increase in the number of population growth that added by increasing quality and quantity of life necessities. Improved urban lifestyle changes have an impact on land cover. The impact in over time will be difficult to control. This study aims to analyze the condition of flooding in urban areas caused by upper Citarum watershed land-use change in 2001 with the land cover change in 2010. This modeling analyzes with the help of HEC-RAS to describe flooded inundation urban areas. Land cover change in upper Citarum watershed is not very significant; it based on the results of data processing of land cover has the difference of area that changed is not enormous. Land cover changes for the floods increased dramatically to a flow coefficient for 2001 is 0.65 and in 2010 at 0.69. In 2001, the inundation area about 105,468 hectares and it were about 92,289 hectares in 2010.

Analysis of river health variation under the background of urbanization based on entropy weight and matter-element model: A case study in Huzhou City in the Yangtze River Delta, China.

PubMed

Pan, Guangbo; Xu, Youpeng; Yu, Zhihui; Song, Song; Zhang, Yuan

2015-05-01

Maintaining the health of the river ecosystem is an essential ecological and environmental guarantee for regional sustainable development and one of the basic objectives in water resource management. With the rapid development of urbanization, the river health situation is deteriorating, especially in urban areas. The river health evaluation is a complex process that involves various natural and social components; eight eco-hydrological indicators were selected to establish an evaluation system, and the variation of river health status under the background of urbanization was explored based on entropy weight and matter-element model. The comprehensive correlative degrees of urban river health of Huzhou City in 2001, 2006 and 2010 were then calculated. The results indicated that river health status of the study area was in the direction of pathological trend, and the impact of limiting factors (such as Shannon's diversity index and agroforestry output growth rate) played an important role in river health. The variation of maximum correlative degree could be classified into stationary status, deterioration status, deterioration-to-improvement status, and improvement-to-deterioration status. There was a severe deterioration situation of river health under the background of urbanization. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Loss of migration and urbanization in birds: a case study of the blackbird (Turdus merula).

PubMed

Møller, Anders Pape; Jokimäki, Jukka; Skorka, Piotr; Tryjanowski, Piotr

2014-07-01

Many organisms have invaded urban habitats, although the underlying factors initially promoting urbanization remain poorly understood. Partial migration may facilitate urbanization because such populations benefit from surplus food in urban environments during winter, and hence enjoy reduced fitness costs of migratory deaths. We tested this hypothesis in the European blackbird Turdus merula, which has been urbanized since the 19th century, by compiling information on timing of urbanization, migratory status, and population density for 99 cities across the continent. Timing of urbanization was spatially auto-correlated at scales up to 600 km. Analyses of timing of urbanization revealed that urbanization occurred earlier in partially migratory and resident populations than in migratory populations of blackbirds. Independently, this effect was most pronounced in the range of the distribution that currently has the highest population density, suggesting that urbanization facilitated population growth. These findings are consistent with the hypothesis that timing of urbanization is facilitated by partial migration, resulting in subsequent residency and population growth.

Human Health and Climate Change: Leverage Points for Adaptation in Urban Environments

PubMed Central

Proust, Katrina; Newell, Barry; Brown, Helen; Capon, Anthony; Browne, Chris; Burton, Anthony; Dixon, Jane; Mu, Lisa; Zarafu, Monica

2012-01-01

The design of adaptation strategies that promote urban health and well-being in the face of climate change requires an understanding of the feedback interactions that take place between the dynamical state of a city, the health of its people, and the state of the planet. Complexity, contingency and uncertainty combine to impede the growth of such systemic understandings. In this paper we suggest that the collaborative development of conceptual models can help a group to identify potential leverage points for effective adaptation. We describe a three-step procedure that leads from the development of a high-level system template, through the selection of a problem space that contains one or more of the group’s adaptive challenges, to a specific conceptual model of a sub-system of importance to the group. This procedure is illustrated by a case study of urban dwellers’ maladaptive dependence on private motor vehicles. We conclude that a system dynamics approach, revolving around the collaborative construction of a set of conceptual models, can help communities to improve their adaptive capacity, and so better meet the challenge of maintaining, and even improving, urban health in the face of climate change. PMID:22829795

Water in the Balance: A Parking Lot Story

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Haas, N. A.; Vitousek, S.

2017-12-01

The greater Chicagoland region has seen a high degree of urbanization since 1970. For example, between 1970-1990 the region experienced 4% population growth, a 35% increase in urban land use, and approximately 454 square miles of agricultural land was mostly converted into urban uses. Transformation of land into urban uses in the Chicagoland region has altered the stream and catchment response to rainfall events, specifically an increase in stream flashiness and increase in urban flooding. Chicago has begun to address these changes through green infrastructure. To understand the impact of green infrastructure at local, city-wide, and watershed scales, individual projects need to be accurately and sufficiently modeled. A traditional parking lot conversion into a porous parking lot at the University of Illinois at Chicago was modeled using SWMM and scrutinized using field data to look at stormwater runoff and water balance prior and post reconstruction. SWMM modeling suggested an 87% reduction in peak flow as well as a 100% reduction in flooding for a 24 hour, 1.72-inch storm. For the same storm, field data suggest an 89% reduction in peak flow as well as a 100% reduction in flooding. Modeling suggested 100% reductions in flooding for longer duration storms (24 hour+) and a smaller reduction in peak flow ( 66%). The highly parameterized SWMM model agrees well with collected data and analysis. Further effort is being made to use data mining to create correlations within the collected datasets that can be integrated into a model that follows a standardized formation process and reduces parameterization.

Calibrated Multi-Temporal Edge Images for City Infrastructure Growth Assessment and Prediction

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Al-Ruzouq, R.; Shanableh, A.; Boharoon, Z.; Khalil, M.

2018-03-01

Urban Growth or urbanization can be defined as the gradual process of city's population growth and infrastructure development. It is typically demonstrated by the expansion of a city's infrastructure, mainly development of its roads and buildings. Uncontrolled urban Growth in cities has been responsible for several problems that include living environment, drinking water, noise and air pollution, waste management, traffic congestion and hydraulic processes. Accurate identification of urban growth is of great importance for urban planning and water/land management. Recent advances in satellite imagery, in terms of improved spatial and temporal resolutions, allows for efficient identification of change patterns and the prediction of built-up areas. In this study, two approaches were adapted to quantify and assess the pattern of urbanization, in Ajman City at UAE, during the last three decades. The first approach relies on image processing techniques and multi-temporal Landsat satellite images with ground resolution varying between 15 to 60 meters. In this approach, the derived edge images (roads and buildings) were used as the basis of change detection. The second approach relies on digitizing features from high-resolution images captured at different years. The latest approach was adopted, as a reference and ground truth, to calibrate extracted edges from Landsat images. It has been found that urbanized area almost increased by 12 folds during the period 1975-2015 where the growth of buildings and roads were almost parallel until 2005 when the roads spatial expansion witnessed a steep increase due to the vertical expansion of the City. Extracted Edges features, were successfully used for change detection and quantification in term of buildings and roads.

Projection of Big Cities Waste Management and Cost Based on Economic and Demographic Factors in Indonesia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Prajati, Gita; Padmi, Tri; Benno Rahardyan, dan

2017-12-01

Nowadays, solid waste management continues to be a major challenge in urban areas, especially in developing country. It is triggered by population growth, economic growth, industrialization and urbanization. Indonesia itselfs categorized into developing country. Indonesia's government has many program in order to increase the economic growth. One of them is MP3EI (Masterplan Percepatan dan Perluasan Pembangunan Ekonomi Indonesia. This program should be suppported by right waste management system. If Indonesia's waste management system can't afford the economic growth, it will trigger health and environmental problems. This study's purpose is to develop the socio-economic-environment model that can be used as a basis planning for the facility and cost of waste management systems. In this paper we used the development of Khajuria model test method. This method used six variables, which are GDP, population, population density, illiteracy, school's period and economic growth. The result showed that development of Khajuria test could explained the influence of economic and demographic factors to waste generation, 65.6%. The projection of waste generation shows that Pangkalpinang, Pekanbaru and Serang are the cities with the highest waste generation for the next five years. The number of dump truck and TPS in DKI Jakarata is the highest within another city, which is 39.37%. For the next five years, the waste management system in our study areas cost maximum 0.8% from GDP (Gross Domestic Products).

Study of the urban evolution of Brasilia with the use of LANDSAT data

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Deoliveira, M. D. N. (Principal Investigator); Foresti, C.; Niero, M.; Parreiras, E. M. D. F.

1984-01-01

The urban growth of Brasilia within the last ten years is analyzed with special emphasis on the utilization of remote sensing orbital data and automatic image processing. The urban spatial structure and the monitoring of its temporal changes were focused in a whole and dynamic way by the utilization of MSS-LANDSAT images for June 1973, 1978 and 1983. In order to aid data interpretation, a registration algorithm implemented at the Interactive Multispectral Image Analysis System (IMAGE-100) was utilized aiming at the overlap of multitemporal images. The utilization of suitable digital filters, combined with the images overlap, allowed a rapid identification of areas of possible urban growth and oriented the field work. The results obtained permitted an evaluation of the urban growth of Brasilia, taking as reference the proposed stated for the construction of the city.

Impacts of compact growth and electric vehicles on future air quality and urban exposures may be mixed.

PubMed

Yu, Haofei; Stuart, Amy L

2017-01-15

'Smart' growth and electric vehicles are potential solutions to the negative impacts of worldwide urbanization on air pollution and health. However, the effects of planning strategies on distinct types of pollutants, and on human exposures, remain understudied. The goal of this work was to investigate the potential impacts of alternative urban designs for the area around Tampa, Florida USA, on emissions, ambient concentrations, and exposures to oxides of nitrogen (NO x ), 1,3-butadiene, and benzene. We studied three potential future scenarios: sprawling growth, compact growth, and 100% vehicle fleet electrification with compact growth. We projected emissions in the seven-county region to 2050 based on One Bay regional visioning plan data. We estimated pollutant concentrations in the county that contains Tampa using the CALPUFF dispersion model. We applied residential population projections to forecast acute (highest hour) and chronic (annual average) exposure. The compact scenario was projected to result in lower regional emissions of all pollutants than sprawl, with differences of -18%, -3%, and -14% for NO x , butadiene, and benzene, respectively. Within Hillsborough County, the compact form also had lower emissions, concentrations, and exposures than sprawl for NO x (-16%/-5% for acute/chronic exposures, respectively), but higher exposures for butadiene (+41%/+30%) and benzene (+21%/+9%). The addition of complete vehicle fleet electrification to the compact scenario mitigated these in-county increases for the latter pollutants, lowering predicted exposures to butadiene (-25%/-39%) and benzene (-5%/-19%), but also resulted in higher exposures to NO x (+81%/+30%) due to increased demand on power plants. These results suggest that compact forms may have mixed impacts on exposures and health. 'Smart' urban designs should consider multiple pollutants and the diverse mix of pollutant sources. Cleaner power generation will also likely be needed to support aggressive adoption of electric vehicles. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Economic growth and marine biodiversity: influence of human social structure on decline of marine trophic levels.

PubMed

Clausen, Rebecca; York, Richard

2008-04-01

We assessed the effects of economic growth, urbanization, and human population size on marine biodiversity. We used the mean trophic level (MTL) of marine catch as an indicator of marine biodiversity and conducted cross-national time-series analyses (1960-2003) of 102 nations to investigate human social influences on fish catch and trends in MTL. We constructed path models to examine direct and indirect effects relating to marine catch and MTL. Nations' MTLs declined with increased economic growth, increased urbanization, and increased population size, in part because of associated increased catch. These findings contradict the environmental Kuznets curve hypothesis, which claims that economic modernization will reduce human impact on the environment. To make informed decisions on issues of marine resource management, policy makers, nonprofit entities, and professional societies must recognize the need to include social analyses in overall conservation-research strategies. The challenge is to utilize the socioeconomic and ecological research in the service of a comprehensive marine-conservation movement.

The Future of Urbanization: Facing the Ecological and Economic Constraints. Worldwatch Paper 77.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Brown, Lester R.; Jacobson, Jodi L.

Aside from the growth of world population itself, urbanization is the dominant demographic trend of the late twentieth century. The number of people living in cities increased from six hundred million in 1950 to over two billion in 1986. If this growth continues unabated, more than half of humanity will reside in urban areas shortly after the turn…

Monitoring urban growth and detection of land use with GIS and remote sensing: a case study of the Kyrenia region

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kara, Can; Akçit, Nuhcan

2016-08-01

Land-cover change is considered one of the central components in current strategies for managing natural resources and monitoring environmental changes. It is important to manage land resources in a sustainable manner which targets at compacting and consolidating urban development. From 2005 to 2015,urban growth in Kyrenia has been quite dramatic, showing a wide and scattered pattern, lacking proper plan. As a result of this unplanned/unorganized expansion, agricultural areas, vegetation and water bodies have been lost in the region. Therefore, it has become a necessity to analyze the results of this urban growth and compare the losses between land-cover changes. With this goal in mind, a case study of Kyrenia region has been carried out using a supervised image classification method and Landsat TM images acquired in 2005 and 2015 to map and extract land-cover changes. This paper tries to assess urban-growth changes detected in the region by using Remote Sensing and GIS. The study monitors the changes between different land cover types. Also, it shows the urban occupation of primary soil loss and the losses in forest areas, open areas, etc.

Road infrastructure, spatial spillover and county economic growth

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hu, Zhenhua; Luo, Shuang

2017-09-01

This paper analyzes the spatial spillover effect of road infrastructure on the economic growth of poverty-stricken counties, based on the spatial Durbin model, by using the panel data of 37 poor counties in Hunan province from 2006 to 2015. The results showed that there is a significant spatial dependence of economic growth in Poor Counties. Road infrastructure has a positive impact on economic growth, and the results will be overestimated without considering spatial factors. Considering the spatial factors, the road infrastructure will promote the economic growth of the surrounding areas through the spillover effect, but the spillover effect is restricted by the distance factor. Capital investment is the biggest factor of economic growth in poor counties, followed by urbanization, labor force and regional openness.

A physically based analytical spatial air temperature and humidity model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yang, Yang; Endreny, Theodore A.; Nowak, David J.

2013-09-01

Spatial variation of urban surface air temperature and humidity influences human thermal comfort, the settling rate of atmospheric pollutants, and plant physiology and growth. Given the lack of observations, we developed a Physically based Analytical Spatial Air Temperature and Humidity (PASATH) model. The PASATH model calculates spatial solar radiation and heat storage based on semiempirical functions and generates spatially distributed estimates based on inputs of topography, land cover, and the weather data measured at a reference site. The model assumes that for all grids under the same mesoscale climate, grid air temperature and humidity are modified by local variation in absorbed solar radiation and the partitioning of sensible and latent heat. The model uses a reference grid site for time series meteorological data and the air temperature and humidity of any other grid can be obtained by solving the heat flux network equations. PASATH was coupled with the USDA iTree-Hydro water balance model to obtain evapotranspiration terms and run from 20 to 29 August 2010 at a 360 m by 360 m grid scale and hourly time step across a 285 km2 watershed including the urban area of Syracuse, NY. PASATH predictions were tested at nine urban weather stations representing variability in urban topography and land cover. The PASATH model predictive efficiency R2 ranged from 0.81 to 0.99 for air temperature and 0.77 to 0.97 for dew point temperature. PASATH is expected to have broad applications on environmental and ecological models.

An integrated modeling approach for estimating hydrologic responses to future urbanization and climate changes in a mixed-use midwestern watershed.

PubMed

Sunde, Michael G; He, Hong S; Hubbart, Jason A; Urban, Michael A

2018-08-15

Future urban development and climatic changes are likely to affect hydrologic regimes in many watersheds. Quantifying potential water regime changes caused by these stressors is therefore crucial for enabling decision makers to develop viable environmental management strategies. This study presents an approach that integrates mid-21st century impervious surface growth estimates derived from the Imperviousness Change Analysis Tool with downscaled climate model projections and a hydrologic model Soil and Water Assessment Tool to characterize potential water regime changes in a mixed-use watershed in central Missouri, USA. Results for the climate change only scenario showed annual streamflow and runoff decreases (-10.7% and -9.2%) and evapotranspiration increases (+6.8%), while results from the urbanization only scenario showed streamflow and runoff increases (+3.8% and +9.3%) and evapotranspiration decreases (-2.4%). Results for the combined impacts scenario suggested that climatic changes could have a larger impact than urbanization on annual streamflow, (overall decrease of -6.1%), and could largely negate surface runoff increases caused by urbanization. For the same scenario, climatic changes exerted a stronger influence on annual evapotranspiration than urbanization (+3.9%). Seasonal results indicated that the relative influences of urbanization and climatic changes vary seasonally. Climatic changes most greatly influenced streamflow and runoff during winter and summer, and evapotranspiration during summer. During some seasons the directional change for hydrologic processes matched for both stressors. This work presented a practicable approach for investigating the relative influences of mid-21st century urbanization and climatic changes on the hydrology of a representative mixed-use watershed, adding to a limited body of research on this topic. This was done using a transferrable approach that can be adapted for watersheds in other regions. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Monitoring and predicting the fecal indicator bacteria concentrations from agricultural, mixed land use and urban stormwater runoff.

PubMed

Paule-Mercado, M A; Ventura, J S; Memon, S A; Jahng, D; Kang, J-H; Lee, C-H

2016-04-15

While the urban runoff are increasingly being studied as a source of fecal indicator bacteria (FIB), less is known about the occurrence of FIB in watershed with mixed land use and ongoing land use and land cover (LULC) change. In this study, Escherichia coli (EC) and fecal streptococcus (FS) were monitored from 2012 to 2013 in agricultural, mixed and urban LULC and analyzed according to the most probable number (MPN). Pearson correlation was used to determine the relationship between FIB and environmental parameters (physicochemical and hydrometeorological). Multiple linear regressions (MLR) were used to identify the significant parameters that affect the FIB concentrations and to predict the response of FIB in LULC change. Overall, the FIB concentrations were higher in urban LULC (EC=3.33-7.39; FS=3.30-7.36log10MPN/100mL) possibly because of runoff from commercial market and 100% impervious cover (IC). Also, during early-summer season; this reflects a greater persistence and growth rate of FIB in a warmer environment. During intra-event, however, the FIB concentrations varied according to site condition. Anthropogenic activities and IC influenced the correlation between the FIB concentrations and environmental parameters. Stormwater temperature (TEMP), turbidity, and TSS positively correlated with the FIB concentrations (p>0.01), since IC increased, implying an accumulation of bacterial sources in urban activities. TEMP, BOD5, turbidity, TSS, and antecedent dry days (ADD) were the most significant explanatory variables for FIB as determined in MLR, possibly because they promoted the FIB growth and survival. The model confirmed the FIB concentrations: EC (R(2)=0.71-0.85; NSE=0.72-0.86) and FS (R(2)=0.65-0.83; NSE=0.66-0.84) are predicted to increase due to urbanization. Therefore, these findings will help in stormwater monitoring strategies, designing the best management practice for FIB removal and as input data for stormwater models. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

REAL-TIME high-resolution urban surface water flood mapping to support flood emergency management

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Guan, M.; Yu, D.; Wilby, R.

2016-12-01

Strong evidence has shown that urban flood risks will substantially increase because of urbanisation, economic growth, and more frequent weather extremes. To effectively manage these risks require not only traditional grey engineering solutions, but also a green management solution. Surface water flood risk maps based on return period are useful for planning purposes, but are limited for application in flood emergencies, because of the spatiotemporal heterogeneity of rainfall and complex urban topography. Therefore, a REAL-TIME urban surface water mapping system is highly beneficial to increasing urban resilience to surface water flooding. This study integrated numerical weather forecast and high-resolution urban surface water modelling into a real-time multi-level surface water mapping system for Leicester City in the UK. For rainfall forecast, the 1km composite rain radar from the Met Office was used, and we used the advanced rainfall-runoff model - FloodMap to predict urban surface water at both city-level (10m-20m) and street-level (2m-5m). The system is capable of projecting 3-hour urban surface water flood, driven by rainfall derived from UK Met Office radar. Moreover, this system includes real-time accessibility mapping to assist the decision-making of emergency responders. This will allow accessibility (e.g. time to travel) from individual emergency service stations (e.g. Fire & Rescue; Ambulance) to vulnerable places to be evaluated. The mapping results will support contingency planning by emergency responders ahead of potential flood events.

[Prediction and simulation of urban area expansion in Pearl River Delta Region under the RCPs climate scenarios].

PubMed

Jiang, Oun-ou; Deng, Xiang-zheng; Ke, Xin-li; Zhao, Chun-hong; Zhang, Wei

2014-12-01

The sizes and number of cities in China are increasing rapidly and complicated changes of urban land use system have occurred as the social economy develops rapidly. This study took the urban agglomeration of Pearl River Delta Region as the study area to explore the driving mechanism of dynamic changes of urban area in the urbanization process under the joint influence of natural environment and social economic conditions. Then the CA (cellular automata) model was used to predict and simulate the urban area changes until 2030 under the designed scenarios of planning and RCPs (representative concentration pathways). The results indicated that urbanization was mainly driven by the non-agricultural population growth and social-economic development, and the transportation had played a fundamental role in the whole process, while the areas with high elevation or steep slope restricted the urbanization. Besides, the urban area would keep an expanding trend regardless of the scenarios, however, the expanding speed would slow down with different inflection points under different scenarios. The urban expansion speed increased in the sequence of the planning scenario, MESSAGE scenario and AIM scenario, and that under the MESSAGE climate scenario was more consistent with the current urban development trend. In addition, the urban expansion would mainly concentrate in regions with the relatively high urbanization level, e.g., Guangzhou, Dongguan, Foshan, Shenzhen, Zhanjiang and Chaoshan.

Investigating the vertical dimension of Singapore's urban heat island through quadcopter platforms: an pilot study

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chow, Winston; Ho, Dawn

2016-04-01

In numerous cities, measurements of urban warmth in most urban heat island (UHI) studies are generally constrained towards surface or near-surface (<2 m above surface level) levels across horizontal variations in land use and land cover. However, there has been hitherto limited attention towards the measurement of vertical temperature profiles extending from the urban surface, urban canopy layer through to the urban boundary layer. Knowledge of these profiles, through (a.) how they vary over different local urban morphologies, and (b.) develop with respect to synoptic meteorological conditions, are important towards several aspects of UHI research; these include validating modelling urban canopy lapse rate profiles or estimating the growth of urban plumes. In this novel study, we utilised temperature sensor-loggers attached onto remote controlled aerial quadcopter platforms to measure urban temperature profiles up to 100 m above ground level in Singapore, which is a rapidly urbanizing major tropical metropolis. Three different land use/land cover categories were sampled; a high-rise residential estate, a university campus, and an urban park/green-space. Sorties were flown repeatedly at four different times - sunrise, noon, sunset and midnight. Initial results indicate significant variations in intra-site stability and inversion development between the urban canopy and boundary layers. These profiles are also temporally dynamic, depending on the time of day and larger-scale weather conditions.

Regional cities in Australia's changing urban system.

PubMed

Beer, A

1995-01-01

"There is evidence that Australia's urban system is changing. Since the mid-1970s there has been growth in the number and total population of regional cities. It is argued that this growth is a product of restructuring and the de-regulation of the Australian economy. Regional cities have become more prominent in the national economy as centres for manufacturing, as a consequence of the growth of tourism and recreation industries, through the decline in some areas of smaller urban settlements and as a result of new mining developments." excerpt

Urbanization in contemporary Arab Gulf states.

PubMed

Qutub, I Y

1983-01-01

Urbanization in the Arab Gulf states of Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, and the United Arab Emirates is analyzed. Topics discussed include the historical background to urbanization; current demographic trends in the region; urban characteristics and growth; socioeconomic factors influencing urbanization, with an emphasis on labor force structure; future urban strategy; and the need for urban research.

Assessment of municipal infrastructure development and its critical influencing factors in urban China: A FA and STIRPAT approach.

PubMed

Li, Yu; Zheng, Ji; Li, Fei; Jin, Xueting; Xu, Chen

2017-01-01

Municipal infrastructure is a fundamental facility for the normal operation and development of an urban city and is of significance for the stable progress of sustainable urbanization around the world, especially in developing countries. Based on the municipal infrastructure data of the prefecture-level cities in China, municipal infrastructure development is assessed comprehensively using a FA (factor analysis) model, and then the stochastic model STIRPAT (stochastic impacts by regression on population, affluence and technology) is examined to investigate key factors that influence municipal infrastructure of cities in various stages of urbanization and economy. This study indicates that the municipal infrastructure development in urban China demonstrates typical characteristics of regional differentiation, in line with the economic development pattern. Municipal infrastructure development in cities is primarily influenced by income, industrialization and investment. For China and similar developing countries under transformation, national public investment remains the primary driving force of economy as well as the key influencing factor of municipal infrastructure. Contribution from urbanization and the relative consumption level, and the tertiary industry is still scanty, which is a crux issue for many developing countries under transformation. With economic growth and the transformation requirements, the influence of the conventional factors such as public investment and industrialization on municipal infrastructure development would be expected to decline, meanwhile, other factors like the consumption and tertiary industry driven model and the innovation society can become key contributors to municipal infrastructure sustainability.

Assessment of municipal infrastructure development and its critical influencing factors in urban China: A FA and STIRPAT approach

PubMed Central

Li, Yu; Zheng, Ji; Li, Fei; Jin, Xueting; Xu, Chen

2017-01-01

Municipal infrastructure is a fundamental facility for the normal operation and development of an urban city and is of significance for the stable progress of sustainable urbanization around the world, especially in developing countries. Based on the municipal infrastructure data of the prefecture-level cities in China, municipal infrastructure development is assessed comprehensively using a FA (factor analysis) model, and then the stochastic model STIRPAT (stochastic impacts by regression on population, affluence and technology) is examined to investigate key factors that influence municipal infrastructure of cities in various stages of urbanization and economy. This study indicates that the municipal infrastructure development in urban China demonstrates typical characteristics of regional differentiation, in line with the economic development pattern. Municipal infrastructure development in cities is primarily influenced by income, industrialization and investment. For China and similar developing countries under transformation, national public investment remains the primary driving force of economy as well as the key influencing factor of municipal infrastructure. Contribution from urbanization and the relative consumption level, and the tertiary industry is still scanty, which is a crux issue for many developing countries under transformation. With economic growth and the transformation requirements, the influence of the conventional factors such as public investment and industrialization on municipal infrastructure development would be expected to decline, meanwhile, other factors like the consumption and tertiary industry driven model and the innovation society can become key contributors to municipal infrastructure sustainability. PMID:28787031

Forest cover loss and urban area expansion in the Conterminous Unites States in the first decade of the third millennium

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Huo, L. Z.; Boschetti, L.

2016-12-01

Remote sensing has been successfully used for global mapping of changes in forest cover, but further analysis is needed to characterize those changes - and in particular to classify the total loss of forest loss (Gross Forest Cover Loss, GFCL) based on the cause (natural/human) and on the outcome of the change (regeneration to forest/transition to non-forest) (Kurtz et al., 2010). While natural forest disturbances (fires, insect outbreaks) and timber harvest generally involve a temporary change of land cover (vegetated to non-vegetated), they generally do not involve a change in land use, and it is expected that the forest cover loss is followed by recovery. Change of land use, such as the conversion of forest to agricultural or urban areas, is instead generally irreversible. The proper classification of forest cover loss is therefore necessary to properly model the long term effects of the disturbances on the carbon budget. The present study presents a spatial and temporal analysis of the forest cover loss due to urban expansion in the Conterminous United States. The Landsat-derived University of Maryland Global Forest Change product (Hansen et al, 2013) is used to identify all the areas of gross forest cover loss, which are subsequently classified into disturbance type (deforestation, stand-replacing natural disturbances, industrial forest clearcuts) using an object-oriented time series analysis (Huo and Boschetti, 2015). A further refinement of the classification is conducted to identify the areas of transition from forest land use to urban land use based on ancillary datasets such as the National Land Cover Database (Homer et al., 2015) and contextual image analysis techniques (analysis of object proximity, and detection of shapes). Results showed that over 4000 km2of forest were lost to urban area expansion in CONUS over the 2001 to 2010 period (1.8% of the gross forest cover loss). Most of the urban growth was concentrated in large urban areas: Atlanta, GA ranked first, followed by Houston, TX; Charlotte, NC; Jacksonville, FL; and Raleigh, NC. At the state level, the top 10 states with urban growth due to forest loss were GA, FL, TX, NC, SC, AL, LA, MS, VA and WA, which cumulatively accounted for 76 % of the total forest cover loss due to urban growth.

Projected Regional Climate in 2025 Due to Urban Growth

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Shepherd, J. Marshall; Manyin, Michael; Messen, Dmitry

2005-01-01

By 2025, 60 to 80 percent of the world s population will live in urban environments. Additionally, the following facts published by the United Nations further illustrates how cities will evolve in the future. Urban areas in the developing world are growing very rapidly. The urban growth rate will continue to be particularly rapid in the urban areas of less developed regions, averaging 2.4 per cent per year during 2000-2030, consistent with a doubling time of 29 years. The urbanization process will continue worldwide. The concentration of population in cities is expected to continue so that, by 2030, 84 percent of the inhabitants of more developed countries will be urban dwellers. Urbanization impacts the whole hierarchy of human settlements. In 2000,24.8 per cent of the world population lived in urban settlements with fewer than 500,000 inhabitants and by 2015 that proportion will likely rise to 27.1 per cent.

Land use/cover change detection and urban sprawl analysis in Bandar Abbas city, Iran.

PubMed

Dadras, Mohsen; Shafri, Helmi Zulhaidi Mohd; Ahmad, Noordin; Pradhan, Biswajeet; Safarpour, Sahabeh

2014-01-01

The process of land use change and urban sprawl has been considered as a prominent characteristic of urban development. This study aims to investigate urban growth process in Bandar Abbas city, Iran, focusing on urban sprawl and land use change during 1956-2012. To calculate urban sprawl and land use changes, aerial photos and satellite images are utilized in different time spans. The results demonstrate that urban region area has changed from 403.77 to 4959.59 hectares between 1956 and 2012. Moreover, the population has increased more than 30 times in last six decades. The major part of population growth is related to migration from other parts the country to Bandar Abbas city. Considering the speed of urban sprawl growth rate, the scale and the role of the city have changed from medium and regional to large scale and transregional. Due to natural and structural limitations, more than 80% of barren lands, stone cliffs, beach zone, and agricultural lands are occupied by built-up areas. Our results revealed that the irregular expansion of Bandar Abbas city must be controlled so that sustainable development could be achieved.

Land Use/Cover Change Detection and Urban Sprawl Analysis in Bandar Abbas City, Iran

PubMed Central

Mohd Shafri, Helmi Zulhaidi; Ahmad, Noordin; Pradhan, Biswajeet; Safarpour, Sahabeh

2014-01-01

The process of land use change and urban sprawl has been considered as a prominent characteristic of urban development. This study aims to investigate urban growth process in Bandar Abbas city, Iran, focusing on urban sprawl and land use change during 1956–2012. To calculate urban sprawl and land use changes, aerial photos and satellite images are utilized in different time spans. The results demonstrate that urban region area has changed from 403.77 to 4959.59 hectares between 1956 and 2012. Moreover, the population has increased more than 30 times in last six decades. The major part of population growth is related to migration from other parts the country to Bandar Abbas city. Considering the speed of urban sprawl growth rate, the scale and the role of the city have changed from medium and regional to large scale and transregional. Due to natural and structural limitations, more than 80% of barren lands, stone cliffs, beach zone, and agricultural lands are occupied by built-up areas. Our results revealed that the irregular expansion of Bandar Abbas city must be controlled so that sustainable development could be achieved. PMID:25276858

Third-world development: urbanizing for the future.

PubMed

Mcilwaine, C

1997-01-01

This article reviews some issues reflected in the 1996 UN Habitat II agenda and recent research on urbanization. The themes of the 1996 Habitat conference were urban development, urban poverty, and governance, civil society, and social capital. It is expected that over 50% of total world population will live in cities in the year 2000. Cities are viewed both as engines of economic growth and centers of severe economic, environmental, and social problems. There is some disagreement about whether cities are rational economic structures or what the World Bank's urban agenda is and its relationship with macroeconomic policy. Discussions of global urban issues are criticized for their neglect of issues of equity and poverty, cultural diversity, and identity and representation. Habitat II also stressed urban sustainability. There is growing recognition that urban management involves more than the "Brown Agenda" of environmental and physical aspects of urban growth. Recent studies identify how politics and power affect people's access to basic urban services. Urban economic activity can also contribute to environmental problems. Urban growth affects the provision of health services. Although there is not a consensus on the role of cities in expanding economic and social development and the best management practices, there is sufficient evidence to indicate that urban processes are varied throughout the developing world. The links between urban and rural areas differentiate cities and expose the need to understand the role of intermediate urban areas surrounding and between larger cities. Poverty has become increasingly urbanized, but the extent of poverty is unknown. Habitat II was an unprecedented effort to engage nongovernment groups, local government staff, trade unions, and the private sector and to emphasize community participation. Networks of trust and reciprocity are key to solving poverty, inequality, and disempowerment problems.

Examining Urban Expansion Using Multi-Temporal Landsat Imagery: a Case Study of the Montreal Census Metropolitan Area from 1975 TO 2015, Canada

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ma, Lingfei; Zhao, He; Li, Jonathan

2016-06-01

Urban expansion, particularly the movement of residential and commercial land use to sub-urban areas in metropolitan areas, has been considered as a significant signal of regional economic development. In 1970s, the economic centre of Canada moved from Montreal to Toronto. Since some previous research have been focused on the urbanization process in Greater Toronto Area (GTA), it is significant to conduct research in its counterpart. This study evaluates urban expansion process in Montréal census metropolitan area (CMA), Canada, between 1975 and 2015 using satellite images and socio-economic data. Spatial and temporal dynamic information of urbanization process was quantified using Landsat imagery, supervised classification algorithms and the post-classification change detection technique. Accuracy of the Landsat-derived land use classification map ranged from 80% to 97%. The results indicated that continuous growth of built-up areas in the CMA over the study period resulted in a decrease in the area of cultivated land and vegetation. The results showed that urban areas expanded 442 km2 both along major river systems and lakeshores, as well as expanded from urban centres to surrounded areas. The analysis revealed that urban expansion has been largely driven by population growth and economic development. Consequently, the urban expansion maps produced in this research can assist decision-makers to promote sustainable urban development, and forecast potential changes in urbanization growth patterns.

Inter- and intraannual growth patterns of urban small-leaved lime (Tilia cordata mill.) at two public squares with contrasting microclimatic conditions.

PubMed

Moser, Astrid; Rahman, Mohammad A; Pretzsch, Hans; Pauleit, Stephan; Rötzer, Thomas

2017-06-01

The effects of urban conditions on tree growth have been investigated in an increasing number of studies over the last decades, emphasizing the harsh environment of cities. Urban trees often grow in highly paved, compacted sites with consequently less soil moisture, higher soil temperatures, and greater vapor pressure deficits. However, there is still a knowledge gap regarding the impact of harsh paved environments on urban tree growth during drought years on the growth patterns of urban trees. The present study investigated the structure and growth of the common urban tree species small-leaved lime (Tilia cordata) at a highly paved public square (CPS) compared with a contrasting more open, greener square (OGS). Continuously, measured high precision dendrometer data along with meteorological data of the extreme dry and warm summer 2015 as well as dendrochronological data of the sampled trees were investigated to analyze tree growth during a drought year. The results highlight different tree dimensions and growth patterns of the trees at both sites, influenced by tree age and distinct site conditions. While the trees at OGS grew up to 2.5 mm from July until mid of August, the trees at CPS had only 0.4-mm diameter increment. After the initial expansion at CPS, tree diameter contracted again during summer to the point of shrinkage (up to 0.8 mm) at the end of our investigation. Further drought year analysis confirmed the patterns of significant stem growth reductions in the consecutive two years following the drought. A correlation analysis revealed that transpiration, air temperature, and vapor pressure deficit were negatively correlated with the daily diameter growth, whereas precipitation had a strong positive effect. Due to high transpiration rates associated with anisohydric water use behavior, T. cordata was able to provide evaporative cooling even during drought. However, this anisohydric behavior resulted in substantial growth decline afterwards especially at paved sites like CPS. Our results suggest selection of tree species, such as those with isohydric water use behavior, which may achieve a better balance between growth, transpiration, and hence evaporative cooling.

Housing land transaction data and structural econometric estimation of preference parameters for urban economic simulation models

PubMed Central

Caruso, Geoffrey; Cavailhès, Jean; Peeters, Dominique; Thomas, Isabelle; Frankhauser, Pierre; Vuidel, Gilles

2015-01-01

This paper describes a dataset of 6284 land transactions prices and plot surfaces in 3 medium-sized cities in France (Besançon, Dijon and Brest). The dataset includes road accessibility as obtained from a minimization algorithm, and the amount of green space available to households in the neighborhood of the transactions, as evaluated from a land cover dataset. Further to the data presentation, the paper describes how these variables can be used to estimate the non-observable parameters of a residential choice function explicitly derived from a microeconomic model. The estimates are used by Caruso et al. (2015) to run a calibrated microeconomic urban growth simulation model where households are assumed to trade-off accessibility and local green space amenities. PMID:26958606

Northwest Florida estuaries: an overview from urban growth models to water quality

EPA Science Inventory

Estuarine and coastal regions in the Gulf of Mexico possess major ecological and economic resources that support a quality of life that makes this region a popular place to live and work. Florida’s largest economic driver is tourism and recreation, which is typically connected t...

Urbanization in Peru. An International Urbanization Survey Report to the Ford Foundation.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Robin, John P.; Terzo, Frederick C.

This survey paper will deal primarily with the following two issues: (1) How to cope with the growth of the metropolitan Lima area, and the current and future stresses on its social and physical environment, and (2) How to develop, if it is possible and desirable to do so, other urban growth poles in the country which will relieve the…

Population Growth in New Hampshire during the Nineteenth and Twentieth Centuries. Studies in New England Geography, Number 1.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Hobart, Christine L.

This paper traces the shifts in New Hampshire's state and county population during the nineteenth and twentieth centuries, focusing on the growth of urban centers and industry. From 1790 to 1840 most of New Hampshire's population growth was agricultural despite the beginnings of industrialization and urbanization. These processes greatly…

Strategies for providing healthcare services to street-dwellers in Dhaka city: Evidence from an operations research

PubMed Central

2012-01-01

Background In almost every major urban city, thousands of people live in overcrowded slums, streets, or other public places without any health services. Bangladesh has experienced one of the highest rates of urban population growth in the last three decades compared to the national population growth rate. The numbers of the urban poor and street-dwellers are likely to increase at least in proportion to the overall population growth of the country. The street-dwellers in Bangladesh are extremely vulnerable in terms of their health needs and healthcare-seeking behaviours. In Bangladesh, there is no health service-delivery mechanism targeting this marginalized group of people. This study, therefore, assessed the effectiveness of two models to provide primary healthcare (PHC) services to street-dwellers. Methods This study of experimental pre-post design tested two models, such as static clinic and satellite clinics, for providing PHC services to street-dwellers in the evening through paramedics in Dhaka city during May 2009-April 2010. Both quantitative and qualitative techniques were used for collecting data. Data were analyzed comparing before and after the implementation of the clinics for the assessment of selected health and family-planning indicators using the statistical t-test. Services received from the model l and model 2 clinics were also compared by calculating the absolute difference to determine the relative effectiveness of one model over another. Results The use of healthcare services by the street-dwellers increased at endline compared to baseline in both the model clinic areas, and the difference was highly significant (p < 0.001). Institutional delivery among the female street-dwellers increased at endline compared to baseline in both the clinic areas. The use of family-planning methods among females also significantly (p < 0.001) increased at endline compared to baseline in both the areas. Conclusions As the findings of the study showed the promise of this approach, the strategies could be implemented in all other cities of Bangladesh and in other countries which encounter similar problems. PMID:22694892

Longitudinal associations between family dinner and adolescent perceptions of parent-child communication among racially-diverse urban youth

PubMed Central

Fulkerson, Jayne A.; Pasch, Keryn E.; Stigler, Melissa H.; Farbakhsh, Kian; Perry, Cheryl L.; Komro, Kelli A.

2010-01-01

Growth curve models examined changes in adolescent self-reported parent-child communication conditional on family meal frequency over a 3.5 year period among a population of racially-diverse, low-income adolescents from an urban environment (n = 4750). Results indicated that although both family dinner frequency and adolescent perceptions of parent-child communication scores were characterized by negative linear growth over time (both p < .0001), family dinner frequency was positively associated with adolescent perceptions of parent-child communication scores over time (p < .0001). Study findings suggest that families with teenagers may enhance parent-child communication and ultimately promote healthy adolescent development by making family dinner a priority. Additionally, the communication benefits of family dinner at the beginning of 6th grade may be protective through 8th grade. PMID:20545399

Application of LANDSAT data to the study of urban development in Brasilia

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Parada, N. D. J. (Principal Investigator); Deoliveira, M. D. L. N.; Foresti, C.; Niero, M.; Parreira, E. M. D. M. F.

1984-01-01

The urban growth of Brasilia within the last ten years is analyzed with special emphasis on the utilization of remote sensing orbital data and automatic image processing. The urban spatial structure and the monitoring of its temporal changes were examined in a whole and dynamic way by the utilization of MSS-LANDSAT images for June (1973, 1978 and 1983). In order to aid data interpretation, a registration algorithm implemented in the Interactive Multispectral Image Analysis System (IMAGE-100) was utilized aiming at the overlap of multitemporal images. The utilization of suitable digital filters, combined with the images overlap, allowed a rapid identification of areas of possible urban growth and oriented the field work. The results obtained in this work permitted an evaluation of the urban growth of Brasilia, taking as reference the proposal stated for the construction of the city in the Pilot Plan elaborated by Lucio Costa.

Sidewalk data in King County's urban growth boundary.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2013-06-01

This report describes the development of geospatial sidewalk data for the King County Urban : Growth Area. Prior to the development of this data set, sidewalk data in King County were limited to : select jurisdictions and existed in multiple, sometim...

Impact of urbanization-related land use land cover changes and urban morphology changes on the urban heat island phenomenon.

PubMed

Zhou, Xuefan; Chen, Hong

2018-04-24

Urban growth and development caused by urbanization influence the urban heat island (UHI) phenomenon. With the rapid development of urbanization, China's major cities are facing more serious climate change problems, especially the UHI phenomenon. Proper planning and urban design of compact cities may improve the ventilation of street canyons and change the heat balance in the urban canopy and thus mitigate the UHI phenomenon. The aim of this study is to evaluate and discuss the mitigation of UHI with different types of land-use and land-cover (LUCC), as well as different development patterns for compact cities. To this end, we applied the weather research and forecasting model (WRF) with urban canopy model (WRF/UCM) in this study. To evaluate the impact of LUCC changes on the UHI, we set 2 cases based on land use and land cover statistical data from 1965 and 2008 of Wuhan. Also, to evaluate the impact of urban morphology changes on the UHI, we designed 2 hypothetical cases based on 2 different urban developing patterns, one is high rise case and another is high density case, to simulate the impact of urban morphology on the UHI. As for the results of this study, with different LUCC of 1965 and 2008, UHI intensity of Wuhan increased by 0.2 °C-0.4 °C in average. Moreover, the critical wind speed which can mitigate UHI of case 1965 is much lower than case 2008. With different urban morphology, the high-rise case may lead to lower UHI intensity at the pedestrian level due to the shading effects of high-rise buildings. However, the critical value of wind speed in the high-rise case was almost 1.5-2 times greater than that of the high-density case, which illustrates the reduced possibility of mitigating the UHI phenomenon for high-rise buildings in Wuhan City. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

The impact of urbanization during half a century on surface meteorology based on WRF model simulations over National Capital Region, India

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sati, Ankur Prabhat; Mohan, Manju

2017-10-01

An estimated 50% of the global population lives in the urban areas, and this percentage is projected to reach around 69% by the year 2050 (World Urbanization Prospects 2009). There is a considerable growth of urban and built-up area during the recent decades over National Capital Region (NCR) of India (17-fold increase in the urban extent). The proposed study estimates the land use land cover changes particularly changes to urban class from other land use types such as croplands, shrubland, open areas, and water bodies and quantify these changes for a span of about five decades. Further, the impact of these land use/land cover changes is examined on spatial and temporal variations of meteorological parameters using the Weather Research and Forecast (WRF) Model. The urbanized areas appear to be one of the regions with highest changes in the values of the fluxes and temperatures where during daytime, the surface sensible heat flux values show a noticeable increase of 60-70 W m-2 which commensurate with increase in urbanization. Similarly, the nighttime LST and T2m show an increase of 3-5 and 2-3 K, respectively. The diurnal temperature range (DTR) of LST and surface temperature also shows a decrease of about 5 and 2-3 K, respectively, with increasing urbanization. Significant decrease in the magnitude of surface winds and relative humidity is also observed over the areas converted to urban form over a period of half a century. The impacts shown here have serious implications on human health, energy consumption, ventilation, and atmospheric pollution.

Population dynamics throughout the urban context: A case study in sub-Saharan Africa utilizing remotely sensed imagery and GIS

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Benza, Magdalena

The characteristics of places where people live and work play an important role in explaining complex social, political, economic and demographic processes. In sub-Saharan Africa rapid urban growth combined with rising poverty is creating diverse urban environments inhabited by people with a wide variety of lifestyles. This research examines how spatial patterns of land cover in a southern portion of the West African country of Ghana are associated with particular characteristics of family organization and reproduction decisions. Satellite imagery and landscape metrics are used to create an urban context definition based on landscape patterns using a gradient approach. Census data are used to estimate fertility levels and household structure, and the association between urban context, household composition and fertility levels is modeled through OLS regression, spatial autoregressive models and geographically weighted regression. Results indicate that there are significant differences in fertility levels between different urban contexts, with below average fertility levels found in the most urbanized end of the urban context definition and above average fertility levels found on the opposite end. The spatial patterns identified in the association between urban context and fertility levels indicate that, within the city areas with lower fertility have significant impacts on the reproductive levels of adjacent neighborhoods. Findings also indicate that there are clear patterns that link urban context to living arrangements and fertility levels. Female- and single-headed households are associated with below average fertility levels, a result that connects dropping fertility levels with the spread of smaller nuclear households in developing countries. At the same time, larger extended family households are linked to below average fertility levels for highly clustered areas, a finding that points to the prevalence of extended family housing in the West African city.

Urban and regional planning proposal no. Y-10-066-001

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hannah, J. W.; Thomas, G. L.; Esparza, F. (Principal Investigator)

1973-01-01

The author has identified the following significant results. An investigation is underway to determine the applicability of ERTS-1 data to urban and regional planning problems, using data for East Central Florida. Small scale land use mapping is feasible. Urban and commercial areas are sufficiently distinguishable that ERTS-1 appears to be a useful tool for monitoring urban and commercial growth. Development patterns of cities, growth patterns of cities, and distribution and changes in certain sectors within cities can be analyzed effectively. Digital analysis methods are proving useful.

Sensitivity of precipitation statistics to urban growth in a subtropical coastal megacity cluster.

PubMed

Holst, Christopher Claus; Chan, Johnny C L; Tam, Chi-Yung

2017-09-01

This short paper presents an investigation on how human activities may or may not affect precipitation based on numerical simulations of precipitation in a benchmark case with modified lower boundary conditions, representing different stages of urban development in the model. The results indicate that certain degrees of urbanization affect the likelihood of heavy precipitation significantly, while less urbanized or smaller cities are much less prone to these effects. Such a result can be explained based on our previous work where the sensitivity of precipitation statistics to surface anthropogenic heat sources lies in the generation of buoyancy and turbulence in the planetary boundary layer and dissipation through triggering of convection. Thus only mega cities of sufficient size, and hence human-activity-related anthropogenic heat emission, can expect to experience such effects. In other words, as cities grow, their effects upon precipitation appear to grow as well. Copyright © 2017. Published by Elsevier B.V.

Utilising integrated urban water management to assess the viability of decentralised water solutions.

PubMed

Burn, Stewart; Maheepala, Shiroma; Sharma, Ashok

2012-01-01

Cities worldwide are challenged by a number of urban water issues associated with climate change, population growth and the associated water scarcity, wastewater flows and stormwater run-off. To address these problems decentralised solutions are increasingly being considered by water authorities, and integrated urban water management (IUWM) has emerged as a potential solution to most of these urban water challenges, and as the key to providing solutions incorporating decentralised concepts at a city wide scale. To incorporate decentralised options, there is a need to understand their performance and their impact on a city's total water cycle under alternative water and land management options. This includes changes to flow, nutrient and sediment regimes, energy use, greenhouse gas emissions, and the impacts on rivers, aquifers and estuaries. Application of the IUWM approach to large cities demands revisiting the fundamental role of water system design in sustainable city development. This paper uses the extended urban metabolism model (EUMM) to expand a logical definition for the aims of IUWM, and discusses the role of decentralised systems in IUWM and how IUWM principles can be incorporated into urban water planning.

Modeling of storm runoff and pollutant wash off processes during storm event in rapidly urbanizing catchment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Qin, H. P.; Yu, X. Y.; Khu, S. T.

2009-04-01

Many urban catchments in developing countries are undergoing fast economic growth, population expansion and land use/cover change. Due to the mixture of agricultural/industrial/residential land use or different urbanization level as well as lack of historical monitoring data in the developing area, storm-water runoff pollution modeling is faced with challenges of considerable spatial variations and data insufficiency. Shiyan Reservoir catchment is located in the rapidly urbanizing coastal region of Southeast China. It has six sub-catchments with largely different land use patterns and urbanization levels. A simple semi-distributed model was used to simulate the storm-water runoff pollution process during storm event in the catchment. The model adopted modified IHACRES model and exponential wash-off functions to describe storm-runoff and pollutant wash-off processes, respectively, in each of six sub-catchments. Temporary hydrological and water quality monitoring sites were set at the downstream section of each sub-catchment in Feb-May 2007, spanning non-rain and rain seasons. And the model was calibrated for storm-runoff and water quality data during two typical storm events with rainfall amount of 10mm/4hr and 73mm/5hr, respectively. The results indicated that the Nash-Sutcliffe (NS) coefficients are greater than 0.65 and 0.55 respectively for storm-runoff model calibration and validation. However although NS coefficients can reach 0.7~0.9 for pollutant wash-off model calibration based on measured data in each storm event, the simulation data can not fit well with the measured data in model validation. According to field survey observation, many litters and residuals were found to distribute in disorder in some sub-catchments or their drainage systems and to instantaneously wash off into the surface water when the rainfall amount and intensity are large enough. In order to improve storm-water runoff pollution simulation in the catchment, the variations of pollutant source and wash off processes in different storm intensity should be consider in future monitoring and model development. Keywords: storm runoff; wash off; urbanization; catchment modeling; litter; residual

A Coupled SD and CLUE-S Model for Exploring the Impact of Land Use Change on Ecosystem Service Value: A Case Study in Baoshan District, Shanghai, China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wu, Meng; Ren, Xiangyu; Che, Yue; Yang, Kai

2015-08-01

Most of the cities in developing countries are experiencing rapid urbanization. Land use change driven by urban sprawl, population growth, and intensified socio-economic activities have led to a steep decline of ecosystem service value (ESV) in rapid urbanization areas, and decision-makers often ignore some valuable ecosystem service functions and values in land use planning. In this paper, we attempt to build a modeling framework which integrated System Dynamics model with Conversion of Land Use and its Effects at Small Extent model to simulate the dynamics of ESV of landscape and explore the potential impacts of land use change on ESV. We take Baoshan district of Shanghai as an example which is a fast urbanization area of metropolitan in China. The results of the study indicate that: (1) The integrated methodology can improve the characterization and presentation of the dynamics of ESV, which may give insight into understanding the possible impacts of land use change on ESV and provide information for land use planning. (2) Land use polices can affect the magnitude and location of ESV both directly and indirectly. Land use changes tend to weaken and simplify ecosystem service functions and values of landscape at urban rural fringe where land use change is more intensive. (3) The application of the methodology has proved that the integration of currently existing models within a single modeling framework could be a beneficial exploration, and should be encouraged and enhanced in the future research on the changing dynamics of ESV due to the complexity of ecosystem services and land use system.

A Coupled SD and CLUE-S Model for Exploring the Impact of Land Use Change on Ecosystem Service Value: A Case Study in Baoshan District, Shanghai, China.

PubMed

Wu, Meng; Ren, Xiangyu; Che, Yue; Yang, Kai

2015-08-01

Most of the cities in developing countries are experiencing rapid urbanization. Land use change driven by urban sprawl, population growth, and intensified socio-economic activities have led to a steep decline of ecosystem service value (ESV) in rapid urbanization areas, and decision-makers often ignore some valuable ecosystem service functions and values in land use planning. In this paper, we attempt to build a modeling framework which integrated System Dynamics model with Conversion of Land Use and its Effects at Small Extent model to simulate the dynamics of ESV of landscape and explore the potential impacts of land use change on ESV. We take Baoshan district of Shanghai as an example which is a fast urbanization area of metropolitan in China. The results of the study indicate that: (1) The integrated methodology can improve the characterization and presentation of the dynamics of ESV, which may give insight into understanding the possible impacts of land use change on ESV and provide information for land use planning. (2) Land use polices can affect the magnitude and location of ESV both directly and indirectly. Land use changes tend to weaken and simplify ecosystem service functions and values of landscape at urban rural fringe where land use change is more intensive. (3) The application of the methodology has proved that the integration of currently existing models within a single modeling framework could be a beneficial exploration, and should be encouraged and enhanced in the future research on the changing dynamics of ESV due to the complexity of ecosystem services and land use system.

Spatial and Temporal Mapping of the Evolution of the Miami-Fort Lauderdale-West Palm Beach Metropolitan Statistical Area (MSA)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rochelo, Mark

Urbanization is a fundamental reality in the developed and developing countries around the world creating large concentrations of the population centering on cities and urban centers. Cities can offer many opportunities for those residing there, including infrastructure, health services, rescue services and more. The living space density of cities allows for the opportunity of more effective and environmentally friendly housing, transportation and resources. Cities play a vital role in generating economic production as entities by themselves and as a part of larger urban complex. The benefits can provide for extraordinary amount of people, but only if proper planning and consideration is undertaken. Global urbanization is a progressive evolution, unique in spatial location while consistent to an overall growth pattern and trend. Remotely sensing these patterns from the last forty years of space borne satellites to understand how urbanization has developed is important to understanding past growth as well as planning for the future. Imagery from the Landsat sensor program provides the temporal component, it was the first satellite launched in 1972, providing appropriate spatial resolution needed to cover a large metropolitan statistical area to monitor urban growth and change on a large scale. This research maps the urban spatial and population growth over the Miami - Fort Lauderdale - West Palm Beach Metropolitan Statistical Area (MSA) covering Miami-Dade, Broward, and Palm Beach counties in Southeast Florida from 1974 to 2010 using Landsat imagery. Supervised Maximum Likelihood classification was performed with a combination of spectral and textural training fields employed in ERDAS Image 2014 to classify the images into urban and non-urban areas. Dasymetric mapping of the classification results were combined with census tract data then created a coherent depiction of the Miami - Fort Lauderdale - West Palm Beach MSA. Static maps and animated files were created from the final datasets for enhanced visualizations and understanding of the MSA evolution from 60-meter resolution remotely sensed Landsat images. The simplified methodology will create a database for urban planning and population growth as well as future work in this area.

Modeling flood reduction effects of low impact development at a watershed scale.

PubMed

Ahiablame, Laurent; Shakya, Ranish

2016-04-15

Low impact development (LID) is a land development approach that seeks to mimic a site's pre-development hydrology. This study is a case study that assessed flood reduction capabilities of large-scale adoption of LID practices in an urban watershed in central Illinois using the Personal Computer Storm Water Management Model (PCSWMM). Two flood metrics based on runoff discharge were developed to determine action flood (43 m(3)/s) and major flood (95 m(3)/s). Four land use scenarios for urban growth were evaluated to determine the impacts of urbanization on runoff and flooding. Flood attenuation effects of porous pavement, rain barrel, and rain garden at various application levels were also evaluated as retrofitting technologies in the study watershed over a period of 30 years. Simulation results indicated that increase in urban land use from 50 to 94% between 1992 and 2030 increased average annual runoff and flood events by more than 30%, suggesting that urbanization without sound management would increase flood risks. The various implementation levels of the three LID practices resulted in 3-47% runoff reduction in the study watershed. Flood flow events that include action floods and major floods were also reduced by 0-40%, indicating that LID practices can be used to mitigate flood risk in urban watersheds. The study provides an insight into flood management with LID practices in existing urban areas. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Nineteenth Century Harbors: Accounting for Coastal Urban Development in Hydrologic Change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schlichting, K. M.; Ruffing, C. M.; McCormack, S. M.; Urbanova, T.; Powell, L. J.; Hermans, C. M.

2009-12-01

Harbors complicate the analytical framework of quantifying nineteenth-century hydrologic change in the northeastern United States. The hydrology of the region was fundamentally altered by the growth of water engineering such as canals as well as by land cover changes as deforestation in the region peaked and urban centers grew. Urban coastal growth epitomized nineteenth-century development as northeastern colonial ports evolved into manufacturing and industrial centers. Coastal urban industrial development concentrated tanneries, machineries, and paper processing companies along cities’ trading rivers. Additionally, the populations of cities such as Boston, New Haven, New York, Newark, and Baltimore reached unprecedented numbers, forcing urban municipalities to confront sewerage and drinking water infrastructure in the face of shortages and waterborne disease. We discuss how the concentration of industry and population at river mouths complicates the process of quantifying the effects of municipal drinking water and sewage infrastructure on regional hydrology and how the growth of nineteenth-century urban centers shaped regional hydrologic hinterlands. Additionally, harbors oblige a reconsideration of hydrologic boundaries by forcing hydrologists and environmental historians to account for fisheries and harbor engineering alongside population and industry as factors in changes to water quality and quantity in and human response to urban nineteenth-century hydrologic change.

Hydrological Footprints of Urban Developments in the Lake Simcoe Watershed, Canada: A Combined Paired-Catchment and Change Detection Modeling Approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Oni, S. K.; Futter, M. N.; Buttle, J. M.; Dillon, P.

2014-12-01

Urban sprawl and regional climate variability are major stresses on surface water resources in many places. The Lake Simcoe watershed (LSW) Ontario, Canada, is no exception. The LSW is predominantly agricultural but is experiencing rapid population growth due to its proximity to the greater Toronto area. This has led to extensive land use changes which have impacted its water resources and altered runoff patterns in some rivers draining to the lake. Here, we use a paired-catchment approach, hydrological change detection modelling and remote sensing analysis of satellite images to evaluate the impacts of land use change on the hydrology of the LSW (1994 to 2008). Results show that urbanization increased up to 16% in Lovers Creek, the most-urban impacted catchment. Annual runoff from Lovers Creek increased from 239 to 442 mm/yr in contrast to the reference catchment (Black River at Washago) where runoff was relatively stable with an annual mean of 474 mm/yr. Increased annual runoff from Lovers Creek was not accompanied by an increase in annual precipitation. Discriminant function analysis suggests that early (1992-1997; pre-major development) and late (2004-2009; fully urbanized) periods for Lovers Creek separated mainly based on model parameter sets related to runoff flashiness and evapotranspiration. As a result, parameterization in either period cannot be used interchangeably to produce credible runoff simulations in Lovers Creek due to greater scatter between the parameters in canonical space. Separation of early and late period parameter sets for the reference catchment was based on climate and snowmelt related processes. This suggests that regional climatic variability could be influencing hydrologic change in the reference catchment whereas urbanization amplified the regional natural hydrologic changes in urbanizing catchments of the LSW.

Modeling individual trees in an urban environment using dense discrete return LIDAR

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bandyopadhyay, Madhurima; van Aardt, Jan A. N.; van Leeuwen, Martin

2015-05-01

The urban forest is becoming increasingly important in the contexts of urban green space, carbon sequestration and offsets, and socio-economic impacts. This has led to a recent increase in attention being paid to urban environmental management. Tree biomass, specifically, is a vital indicator of carbon storage and has a direct impact on urban forest health and carbon sequestration. As an alternative to expensive and time-consuming field surveys, remote sensing has been used extensively in measuring dynamics of vegetation and estimating biomass. Light detection and ranging (LiDAR) has proven especially useful to characterize the three dimensional (3D) structure of forests. In urban contexts however, information is frequently required at the individual tree level, necessitating the proper delineation of tree crowns. Yet, crown delineation is challenging for urban trees where a wide range of stress factors and cultural influences affect growth. In this paper high resolution LiDAR data were used to infer biomass based on individual tree attributes. A multi-tiered delineation algorithm was designed to extract individual tree-crowns. At first, dominant tree segments were obtained by applying watershed segmentation on the crown height model (CHM). Next, prominent tree top positions within each segment were identified via a regional maximum transformation and the crown boundary was estimated for each of the tree tops. Finally, undetected trees were identified using a best-fitting circle approach. After tree delineation, individual tree attributes were used to estimate tree biomass and the results were validated with associated field mensuration data. Results indicate that the overall tree detection accuracy is nearly 80%, and the estimated biomass model has an adjusted-R2 of 0.5.

Long-term urban carbon dioxide observations reveal spatial and temporal dynamics related to urban characteristics and growth

DOE PAGES

Mitchell, Logan E.; Lin, John C.; Bowling, David R.; ...

2018-03-05

Cities are concentrated areas of CO 2 emissions and have become the foci of policies for mitigation actions. However, atmospheric measurement networks suitable for evaluating urban emissions over time are scarce. Here we present a unique long-term (decadal) record of CO 2 mole fractions from five sites across Utah’s metropolitan Salt Lake Valley. We examine “excess” CO 2 above background conditions resulting from local emissions and meteorological conditions. We ascribe CO 2 trends to changes in emissions, since we did not find longterm trends in atmospheric mixing proxies. Three contrasting CO 2 trends emerged across urban types: negative trends atmore » a residentialindustrial site, positive trends at a site surrounded by rapid suburban growth, and relatively constant CO 2 over time at multiple sites in the established, residential, and commercial urban core. Analysis of populationwithin the atmospheric footprints of the different sites reveals approximately equal increases in population influencing the observed CO 2, implying a nonlinear relationshipwith CO 2 emissions: Population growth in rural areas that experienced suburban development was associated with increasing emissions while population growth in the developed urban core was associated with stable emissions. Four state-of-the-art global-scale emission inventories also have a nonlinear relationship with population density across the city; however, in contrast to our observations, they all have nearly constant emissions over time. Our results indicate that decadal scale changes in urban CO 2 emissions are detectable through monitoring networks and constitute a valuable approach to evaluate emission inventories and studies of urban carbon cycles.« less

Long-term urban carbon dioxide observations reveal spatial and temporal dynamics related to urban characteristics and growth

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mitchell, Logan E.; Lin, John C.; Bowling, David R.; Pataki, Diane E.; Strong, Courtenay; Schauer, Andrew J.; Bares, Ryan; Bush, Susan E.; Stephens, Britton B.; Mendoza, Daniel; Mallia, Derek; Holland, Lacey; Gurney, Kevin R.; Ehleringer, James R.

2018-03-01

Cities are concentrated areas of CO2 emissions and have become the foci of policies for mitigation actions. However, atmospheric measurement networks suitable for evaluating urban emissions over time are scarce. Here we present a unique long-term (decadal) record of CO2 mole fractions from five sites across Utah’s metropolitan Salt Lake Valley. We examine “excess” CO2 above background conditions resulting from local emissions and meteorological conditions. We ascribe CO2 trends to changes in emissions, since we did not find long-term trends in atmospheric mixing proxies. Three contrasting CO2 trends emerged across urban types: negative trends at a residential-industrial site, positive trends at a site surrounded by rapid suburban growth, and relatively constant CO2 over time at multiple sites in the established, residential, and commercial urban core. Analysis of population within the atmospheric footprints of the different sites reveals approximately equal increases in population influencing the observed CO2, implying a nonlinear relationship with CO2 emissions: Population growth in rural areas that experienced suburban development was associated with increasing emissions while population growth in the developed urban core was associated with stable emissions. Four state-of-the-art global-scale emission inventories also have a nonlinear relationship with population density across the city; however, in contrast to our observations, they all have nearly constant emissions over time. Our results indicate that decadal scale changes in urban CO2 emissions are detectable through monitoring networks and constitute a valuable approach to evaluate emission inventories and studies of urban carbon cycles.

Long-term urban carbon dioxide observations reveal spatial and temporal dynamics related to urban characteristics and growth

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Mitchell, Logan E.; Lin, John C.; Bowling, David R.

Cities are concentrated areas of CO 2 emissions and have become the foci of policies for mitigation actions. However, atmospheric measurement networks suitable for evaluating urban emissions over time are scarce. Here we present a unique long-term (decadal) record of CO 2 mole fractions from five sites across Utah’s metropolitan Salt Lake Valley. We examine “excess” CO 2 above background conditions resulting from local emissions and meteorological conditions. We ascribe CO 2 trends to changes in emissions, since we did not find longterm trends in atmospheric mixing proxies. Three contrasting CO 2 trends emerged across urban types: negative trends atmore » a residentialindustrial site, positive trends at a site surrounded by rapid suburban growth, and relatively constant CO 2 over time at multiple sites in the established, residential, and commercial urban core. Analysis of populationwithin the atmospheric footprints of the different sites reveals approximately equal increases in population influencing the observed CO 2, implying a nonlinear relationshipwith CO 2 emissions: Population growth in rural areas that experienced suburban development was associated with increasing emissions while population growth in the developed urban core was associated with stable emissions. Four state-of-the-art global-scale emission inventories also have a nonlinear relationship with population density across the city; however, in contrast to our observations, they all have nearly constant emissions over time. Our results indicate that decadal scale changes in urban CO 2 emissions are detectable through monitoring networks and constitute a valuable approach to evaluate emission inventories and studies of urban carbon cycles.« less

Sustainability of population growth: a case study of urban settlements in Israel.

PubMed

Portnov, B A; Pearlmutter, D

1997-01-01

"One of the most sensitive criteria for gauging the degree of socio-economic prosperity of an urban settlement is the ability to sustain stable rates of population growth by attracting newcomers and retaining existing population. The present paper argues that after reaching a particular size (on the average, 20-30,000 residents), urban localities in Israel tend to experience substantial changes in components of their annual population growth. Starting with this inflection point, the growth of settlements gradually becomes less dependent on natural causes (birth and death rates) than on the ability to attract newcomers and retain current residents. On the basis of this conclusion, a strategy of ¿redirecting priorities' to developing the peripheral regions of the country is suggested." excerpt

The Oportunidades program increases the linear growth of children enrolled at young ages in urban Mexico.

PubMed

Leroy, Jef L; García-Guerra, Armando; García, Raquel; Dominguez, Clara; Rivera, Juan; Neufeld, Lynnette M

2008-04-01

The goal of this study was to evaluate the impact of Mexico's conditional cash transfer program, Oportunidades, on the growth of children <24 mo of age living in urban areas. Beneficiary families received cash transfers, a fortified food (targeted to pregnant and lactating women, children 6-23 mo, and children with low weight 2-4 y), and curative health services, among other benefits. Program benefits were conditional on preventative health care utilization and attendance of health and nutrition education sessions. We estimated the impact of the program after 2 y of operation in a panel of 432 children <24 mo of age at baseline (2002). We used difference-in-difference propensity score matching, which takes into account nonrandom program participation and the effects of unobserved fixed characteristics on outcomes. All models controlled for child age, sex, baseline anthropometry, and maternal height. Anthropometric Z-scores were calculated using the new WHO growth reference standards. There was no overall association between program participation and growth in children 6 to 24 mo of age. Children in intervention families younger than 6 mo of age at baseline grew 1.5 cm (P < 0.05) more than children in comparison families, corresponding to 0.41 height-for-age Z-scores (HAZ) (P < 0.05). They also gained an additional 0.76 kg (P < 0.01) or 0.47 weight-for-height Z-scores (P < 0.05). Children living in the poorest intervention households tended (0.05 < P < 0.10) to be taller than comparison children (0.9 cm, 0.27 HAZ). Oportunidades, with its strong nutrition component, is an effective tool to improve the growth of infants in poor urban households.

Urban Sprawl, Smart Growth, and Deliberative Democracy

PubMed Central

2010-01-01

Urban sprawl is an increasingly common feature of the built environment in the United States and other industrialized nations. Although there is considerable evidence that urban sprawl has adverse affects on public health and the environment, policy frameworks designed to combat sprawl—such as smart growth—have proven to be controversial, making implementation difficult. Smart growth has generated considerable controversy because stakeholders affected by urban planning policies have conflicting interests and divergent moral and political viewpoints. In some of these situations, deliberative democracy—an approach to resolving controversial public-policy questions that emphasizes open, deliberative debate among the affected parties as an alternative to voting—would be a fair and effective way to resolve urban-planning issues. PMID:20724685

Urban Area Monitoring using MODIS Time Series Data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Devadiga, S.; Sarkar, S.; Mauoka, E.

2015-12-01

Growing urban sprawl and its impact on global climate due to urban heat island effects has been an active area of research over the recent years. This is especially significant in light of rapid urbanization that is happening in some of the first developing nations across the globe. But so far study of urban area growth has been largely restricted to local and regional scales, using high to medium resolution satellite observations, taken at distinct time periods. In this presentation we propose a new approach to detect and monitor urban area expansion using long time series of MODIS data. This work characterizes data points using a vector of several annual metrics computed from the MODIS 8-day and 16-day composite L3 data products, at 250M resolution and over several years and then uses a vector angle mapping classifier to detect and segment the urban area. The classifier is trained using a set of training points obtained from a reference vector point and polygon pre-filtered using the MODIS VI product. This work gains additional significance, given that, despite unprecedented urban growth since 2000, the area covered by the urban class in the MODIS Global Land Cover (MCD12Q1, MCDLCHKM and MCDLC1KM) product hasn't changed since the launch of Terra and Aqua. The proposed approach was applied to delineate the urban area around several cities in Asia known to have maximum growth in the last 15 years. Results were verified using high resolution Landsat data.

Addressing water scarcity through limited irrigation cropping: Field experiments and modeling

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Population growth in urbanizing areas such as the Front Range of Colorado has led to increased pressure to transfer water from agriculture to municipalities. In many cases this has led to complete dry up of productive irrigated lands. An option to complete dry-up is the practice of limited or defi...

Change and transition in urban systems: The story of Chicago told with Energy Systems Language models

EPA Science Inventory

Cities are human phenomena born of the need for economic, social and spiritual interactions among people. Early cities relied on solar energy for their support and as a result growth was often constrained by the local availability of energy and materials. Modern cities can exist ...

Exploring critical pathways for urban water management to identify robust strategies under deep uncertainties.

PubMed

Urich, Christian; Rauch, Wolfgang

2014-12-01

Long-term projections for key drivers needed in urban water infrastructure planning such as climate change, population growth, and socio-economic changes are deeply uncertain. Traditional planning approaches heavily rely on these projections, which, if a projection stays unfulfilled, can lead to problematic infrastructure decisions causing high operational costs and/or lock-in effects. New approaches based on exploratory modelling take a fundamentally different view. Aim of these is, to identify an adaptation strategy that performs well under many future scenarios, instead of optimising a strategy for a handful. However, a modelling tool to support strategic planning to test the implication of adaptation strategies under deeply uncertain conditions for urban water management does not exist yet. This paper presents a first step towards a new generation of such strategic planning tools, by combing innovative modelling tools, which coevolve the urban environment and urban water infrastructure under many different future scenarios, with robust decision making. The developed approach is applied to the city of Innsbruck, Austria, which is spatially explicitly evolved 20 years into the future under 1000 scenarios to test the robustness of different adaptation strategies. Key findings of this paper show that: (1) Such an approach can be used to successfully identify parameter ranges of key drivers in which a desired performance criterion is not fulfilled, which is an important indicator for the robustness of an adaptation strategy; and (2) Analysis of the rich dataset gives new insights into the adaptive responses of agents to key drivers in the urban system by modifying a strategy. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Remote Sensing Information Science Research

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Clarke, Keith C.; Scepan, Joseph; Hemphill, Jeffrey; Herold, Martin; Husak, Gregory; Kline, Karen; Knight, Kevin

2002-01-01

This document is the final report summarizing research conducted by the Remote Sensing Research Unit, Department of Geography, University of California, Santa Barbara under National Aeronautics and Space Administration Research Grant NAG5-10457. This document describes work performed during the period of 1 March 2001 thorough 30 September 2002. This report includes a survey of research proposed and performed within RSRU and the UCSB Geography Department during the past 25 years. A broad suite of RSRU research conducted under NAG5-10457 is also described under themes of Applied Research Activities and Information Science Research. This research includes: 1. NASA ESA Research Grant Performance Metrics Reporting. 2. Global Data Set Thematic Accuracy Analysis. 3. ISCGM/Global Map Project Support. 4. Cooperative International Activities. 5. User Model Study of Global Environmental Data Sets. 6. Global Spatial Data Infrastructure. 7. CIESIN Collaboration. 8. On the Value of Coordinating Landsat Operations. 10. The California Marine Protected Areas Database: Compilation and Accuracy Issues. 11. Assessing Landslide Hazard Over a 130-Year Period for La Conchita, California Remote Sensing and Spatial Metrics for Applied Urban Area Analysis, including: (1) IKONOS Data Processing for Urban Analysis. (2) Image Segmentation and Object Oriented Classification. (3) Spectral Properties of Urban Materials. (4) Spatial Scale in Urban Mapping. (5) Variable Scale Spatial and Temporal Urban Growth Signatures. (6) Interpretation and Verification of SLEUTH Modeling Results. (7) Spatial Land Cover Pattern Analysis for Representing Urban Land Use and Socioeconomic Structures. 12. Colorado River Flood Plain Remote Sensing Study Support. 13. African Rainfall Modeling and Assessment. 14. Remote Sensing and GIS Integration.

A Rural Transformation Model: The facts of rural development in the Surakarta Metropolitan Region

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Puspa Sari, D. P.; Asyifa, I.; Derman, I. F.; Jayanti, D. R.; Hanatya, F. Y.

2018-05-01

Not only cities are entering the urban age but suburban villages are also feeling the impact of this global phenomenon. In Indonesia, the uncontrolled rural transformation has had some negative impacts because of the unpreparedness of various aspects such as land conversion, the emergence of the informal sector, and crime. This phenomenon is often referred to as developmental externalities that need to be anticipated in planning and controlling the growth of cities and villages. This inevitable rural transformation also occurs in the Surakarta Metropolitan Region. The previous rural transformation studies in the Surakarta Metropolitan Region are based on economic, spatial to socio-ecological perspectives and are still rarely studied from the perspective of urban studies. This article aims to examine the model of rural transformation in the Surakarta Metropolitan Region based on the Rural-Urban Transformation theory by Lo, Shalih & Douglass (1998), especially in the Simo, Sambi, Ngemplak, and Nogosari Sub-districts in Boyolali District. The qualitative methods consisting of interviews, 150 questionnaires, and field observations in 2017 and literature study were used for the discussion in this article. The rural to urban transformation of the Surakarta Metropolitan Region follows the Southeast Asian Model. This research opens a new discussion on how to create a sustainable city system in the Surakarta Metropolitan Region.

Long-term monitoring of Sacramento Shade program trees: tree survival, growth and energy-saving performance

Treesearch

Yekang Ko; Jun-Hak Lee; E. Gregory McPherson; Lara A. Roman

2015-01-01

Long-term survival and growth of urban forests are critical to achieve the targeted benefits of urban tree planting programs, such as building energy savings from tree shade. However, little is known about how trees perform in the long-term, especially in residential areas. Given this gap in the literature, we monitored 22-years of post-planting survival, growth, and...

Tracking urban activity growth globally with big location data

PubMed Central

Daggitt, Matthew L.; Noulas, Anastasios; Shaw, Blake; Mascolo, Cecilia

2016-01-01

In recent decades, the world has experienced rates of urban growth unparalleled in any other period of history and this growth is shaping the environment in which an increasing proportion of us live. In this paper, we use a longitudinal dataset from Foursquare, a location-based social network, to analyse urban growth across 100 major cities worldwide. Initially, we explore how urban growth differs in cities across the world. We show that there exists a strong spatial correlation, with nearby pairs of cities more likely to share similar growth profiles than remote pairs of cities. Subsequently, we investigate how growth varies inside cities and demonstrate that, given the existing local density of places, higher-than-expected growth is highly localized while lower-than-expected growth is more diffuse. Finally, we attempt to use the dataset to characterize competition between new and existing venues. By defining a measure based on the change in throughput of a venue before and after the opening of a new nearby venue, we demonstrate which venue types have a positive effect on venues of the same type and which have a negative effect. For example, our analysis confirms the hypothesis that there is large degree of competition between bookstores, in the sense that existing bookstores normally experience a notable drop in footfall after a new bookstore opens nearby. Other place types, such as museums, are shown to have a cooperative effect and their presence fosters higher traffic volumes to nearby places of the same type. PMID:27152210

Tracking urban activity growth globally with big location data.

PubMed

Daggitt, Matthew L; Noulas, Anastasios; Shaw, Blake; Mascolo, Cecilia

2016-04-01

In recent decades, the world has experienced rates of urban growth unparalleled in any other period of history and this growth is shaping the environment in which an increasing proportion of us live. In this paper, we use a longitudinal dataset from Foursquare, a location-based social network, to analyse urban growth across 100 major cities worldwide. Initially, we explore how urban growth differs in cities across the world. We show that there exists a strong spatial correlation, with nearby pairs of cities more likely to share similar growth profiles than remote pairs of cities. Subsequently, we investigate how growth varies inside cities and demonstrate that, given the existing local density of places, higher-than-expected growth is highly localized while lower-than-expected growth is more diffuse. Finally, we attempt to use the dataset to characterize competition between new and existing venues. By defining a measure based on the change in throughput of a venue before and after the opening of a new nearby venue, we demonstrate which venue types have a positive effect on venues of the same type and which have a negative effect. For example, our analysis confirms the hypothesis that there is large degree of competition between bookstores, in the sense that existing bookstores normally experience a notable drop in footfall after a new bookstore opens nearby. Other place types, such as museums, are shown to have a cooperative effect and their presence fosters higher traffic volumes to nearby places of the same type.

Longitudinal associations between family dinner and adolescent perceptions of parent-child communication among racially diverse urban youth.

PubMed

Fulkerson, Jayne A; Pasch, Keryn E; Stigler, Melissa H; Farbakhsh, Kian; Perry, Cheryl L; Komro, Kelli A

2010-06-01

We examined changes in adolescent self-reported parent-child communication using growth curve models conditional on family meal frequency over a 3.5-year period among a population of racially diverse, low-income adolescents from an urban environment (n = 4,750). Results indicated that although both family dinner frequency and adolescent perceptions of parent-child communication scores were characterized by negative linear growth over time (both p < .001), family dinner frequency was positively associated with adolescent perceptions of parent-child communication scores over time (p < .001). Study findings suggest that families with teenagers may enhance parent-child communication and ultimately promote healthy adolescent development by making family dinner a priority. In addition, the communication benefits of family dinner at the beginning of sixth grade may be protective through eighth grade. (c) 2010 APA, all rights reserved.

Spatial distribution of traffic induced noise exposures in a US city: an analytic tool for assessing the health impacts of urban planning decisions

PubMed Central

Seto, Edmund Yet Wah; Holt, Ashley; Rivard, Tom; Bhatia, Rajiv

2007-01-01

Background: Vehicle traffic is the major source of noise in urban environments, which in turn has multiple impacts on health. In this paper we investigate the spatial distribution of community noise exposures and annoyance. Traffic data from the City of San Francisco were used to model noise exposure by neighborhood and road type. Remote sensing data were used in the model to estimate neighborhood-specific percentages of cars, trucks, and buses on arterial versus non-arterial streets. The model was validated on 235 streets. Finally, an exposure-response relationship was used to predict the prevalence of high annoyance for different neighborhoods. Results: Urban noise was found to increase 6.7 dB (p < 0.001) with 10-fold increased street traffic, with important contributors to noise being bus and heavy truck traffic. Living along arterial streets also increased risk of annoyance by 40%. The relative risk of annoyance in one of the City's fastest growing neighborhoods, the South of Market Area, was found to be 2.1 times that of lowest noise neighborhood. However, higher densities of exposed individuals were found in Chinatown and Downtown/Civic Center. Overall, we estimated that 17% of the city's population was at risk of high annoyance from traffic noise. Conclusion: The risk of annoyance from urban noise is large, and varies considerably between neighborhoods. Such risk should be considered in urban areas undergoing rapid growth. We present a relatively simple GIS-based noise model that may be used for routinely evaluating the health impacts of environmental noise. PMID:17584947

[A national survey on physical growth and development of children under seven years of age in nine cities of China in 2015].

PubMed

2018-03-02

Objective: To investigate and analyze the status of physical growth and its change in children under 7 years of age in 9 cities of China, and to provide scientific data for renewing and developing the new growth reference of Chinese children. Methods: Data of healthy children under 7 years of age were collected by stratified cluster sampling method in Beijing, Harbin, Xi'an, Shanghai, Nanjing, Wuhan, Guangzhou, Fuzhou and Kunming during the period from June to November in 2015. They were divided into 22 age groups. The sample size of boys or girls, urban or suburban was 150-200 in each age group in each city, and the total sample size in the 9 cities was 161 774. Weight, length/height, head circumference, sitting height, chest circumference and waist circumference were measured by the trained investigators using standard methods. There were strict quality control measures during investigation process. The t test was used to compare the difference of physical growth between two groups and one-way ANOVA was used to compare the difference of physical growth among three groups. Results: (1) The level of physical growth of children under 7 years were different between boys and girls, urban and suburban, as well as different regions of China in 2015. The urban-suburban difference was more significant in children older than 8 months, that is, the weight and height of urban children were greater than those of suburban children (0.01-0.48 kg and 0.1-1.1 cm respectively). (2) Weight and height of children in the 9 cities, whether urban or suburban areas, had been greater than WHO growth standards, for example, the Z-scores of height values of urban and suburban children were 0.43 ±0.99 ( t= 130.551, P< 0.05) and 0.30 ±1.01 ( t= 87.407, P< 0.05) higher than the WHO standards. (3) The physical growth of children in the 9 cities was improved in varying degrees during the past 10 years. For example, the changes of weight and height in urban children under 3 years were not significant, while there was significant improvement among children older than 3 years and the increasing trend became apparent along with the increasing of age (0.05-1.18 kg in weight and 0.5-1.8 cm in height). The urban-suburban difference of physical growth in each age group of boys and girls narrowed significantly during the past 10 years, which was clearly shown from the narrowing urban-suburban differences of weight and height in boys aged 5.5-<6.0 years (1.58 kg in 2005 vs . 0.44 kg in 2015 and 2.8 cm in 2005 vs . 0.9 cm in 2015) . (4) From the increments of each decade during 1975-2015, a rapid increments of physical growth during 1975-2005 were found, while the increments after 2005 had slowed comparing with that of the previous period in urban areas, for example, the increments of height in boys aged 5.5-<6.0 years were 1.5, 2.1, 2.7, 0.7 cm respectively in the 1(st), 2(nd), 3(rd) and 4(th) decade (1975-1985, 1985-1995, 1995-2005, 2005-2015) . In suburban areas, the trends of the previous 3 decades were similar with that of urban children, while the increments of the 4(th) decade were still bigger though they were slightly smaller than those of the 3(rd) decade, for example, the increments of height in boys aged 5.5-<6.0 years were 2.4, 2.3, 3.2, 2.6 cm in the 1(st), 2(nd), 3(rd) and 4(th) decade respectively. Conclusions: Physical growth of children under 7 years of age showed a slow positive secular trend during the last decade after a rapid increase. The increments of suburban children's physical growth were greater than those of urban children. The physical growth of children under 7 years in 9 Chinese cities exceeded the WHO standards.

The dynamics of city formation*

PubMed Central

Henderson, J. Vernon; Venables, Anthony J.

2013-01-01

This paper examines city formation in a country whose urban population is growing steadily over time, with new cities required to accommodate this growth. In contrast to most of the literature there is immobility of housing and urban infrastructure, and investment in these assets is taken on the basis of forward-looking behavior. In the presence of these fixed assets cities form sequentially, without the population swings in existing cities that arise in current models, but with swings in house rents. Equilibrium city size, absent government, may be larger or smaller than is efficient, depending on how urban externalities vary with population. Efficient formation of cities with internalization of externalities involves local government intervention and borrowing to finance development. The paper explores the institutions required for successful local government intervention. PMID:25089087

Insights to urban dynamics through landscape spatial pattern analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

TV, Ramachandra; Aithal, Bharath H.; Sanna, Durgappa D.

2012-08-01

Urbanisation is a dynamic complex phenomenon involving large scale changes in the land uses at local levels. Analyses of changes in land uses in urban environments provide a historical perspective of land use and give an opportunity to assess the spatial patterns, correlation, trends, rate and impacts of the change, which would help in better regional planning and good governance of the region. Main objective of this research is to quantify the urban dynamics using temporal remote sensing data with the help of well-established landscape metrics. Bangalore being one of the rapidly urbanising landscapes in India has been chosen for this investigation. Complex process of urban sprawl was modelled using spatio temporal analysis. Land use analyses show 584% growth in built-up area during the last four decades with the decline of vegetation by 66% and water bodies by 74%. Analyses of the temporal data reveals an increase in urban built up area of 342.83% (during 1973-1992), 129.56% (during 1992-1999), 106.7% (1999-2002), 114.51% (2002-2006) and 126.19% from 2006 to 2010. The Study area was divided into four zones and each zone is further divided into 17 concentric circles of 1 km incrementing radius to understand the patterns and extent of the urbanisation at local levels. The urban density gradient illustrates radial pattern of urbanisation for the period 1973-2010. Bangalore grew radially from 1973 to 2010 indicating that the urbanisation is intensifying from the central core and has reached the periphery of the Greater Bangalore. Shannon's entropy, alpha and beta population densities were computed to understand the level of urbanisation at local levels. Shannon's entropy values of recent time confirms dispersed haphazard urban growth in the city, particularly in the outskirts of the city. This also illustrates the extent of influence of drivers of urbanisation in various directions. Landscape metrics provided in depth knowledge about the sprawl. Principal component analysis helped in prioritizing the metrics for detailed analyses. The results clearly indicates that whole landscape is aggregating to a large patch in 2010 as compared to earlier years which was dominated by several small patches. The large scale conversion of small patches to large single patch can be seen from 2006 to 2010. In the year 2010 patches are maximally aggregated indicating that the city is becoming more compact and more urbanised in recent years. Bangalore was the most sought after destination for its climatic condition and the availability of various facilities (land availability, economy, political factors) compared to other cities. The growth into a single urban patch can be attributed to rapid urbanisation coupled with the industrialisation. Monitoring of growth through landscape metrics helps to maintain and manage the natural resources.

40 CFR 81.300 - Scope.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-07-01

... boundary limits as of October 31, 1990. (2) Similarly, for planning areas, air quality maintenance areas..., air quality maintenance area, air basin, or urban growth boundary as of November 15, 1990, except for..., air quality maintenance area, air basin, or urban growth boundary as of October 31, 1990. The...

40 CFR 81.300 - Scope.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

2014-07-01

... boundary limits as of October 31, 1990. (2) Similarly, for planning areas, air quality maintenance areas..., air quality maintenance area, air basin, or urban growth boundary as of November 15, 1990, except for..., air quality maintenance area, air basin, or urban growth boundary as of October 31, 1990. The...

[Third World cities: points of accumulation, centers of distribution].

PubMed

Armstrong, W R; Mcgee, T G

1985-01-01

Attention was called over 3 decades ago to the very rapid growth of Third World cities and the significance of the differences between their patterns of urbanization and those of industrialized countries. Their demographic growth occurred much faster and depended much more heavily on high fertility, their economies were geared more to export of raw materials than to manufacturing and were unable to create massive numbers of jobs to absorb the growing labor force except in the unproductive tertiary sector, and it appeared unlikely that they would be able to produce entrepreneurial classes of their own. Several economic developments during the 1970s affected the world economy and the patterns of urbanization of the Third World: the decline of the principal capitalist economies and the multiple increases in the price of oil, the floating exchange rate, the considerable increase in consumer goods, and the increasing costs of labor in industrialized countries, among others, created new conditions. World economic interdependence, international control of investment and exchange, and volume and mobility of capital increased at a time of rapid economic growth in some Third World countries, especially those whose governments took an aggressive role in promoting growth and investment. Some Third World cities now seem to be developing according to a more western model, but the same cannot be said of all Third World countries, and international economic evolution appears to have led to increasing polarization between countries as well as within them. The 1 domain where a certain convergence has occurred is consumption, beginning with the privileged classes and filtering to the lower income groups. Consumption of collective and individual consumer goods, which is concentrated in the largest cities, increases dependence on imports, technology, knowledge, and usually debt. The modern productive sector and its distribution activities become implanted in the cities to such a degree that it becomes more and more difficult for the consumption needs of regional cities and rural areas to be satisfied except through manufactured products from the capitalist sector of the principal city or through imports from industrial countries. Despite the fact that some Third World cities will be enormous by the year 2000 and that their social structures and labor forces will not closely resemble those of European cities, the thesis of "pseudourbanization" appears invalid for several reasons: the model of sectorial changes in the European labor force was not followed by the industrializing countries of North America; some Third World countries (excluding India and China) appear able to absorb most of their surplus rural population into the modern sector, and Third World cities appear less and less to be merely centers of culture. New research during the 1970s on Third World urbanization contributed several crucial elements to the analysis: recognition that insertion of developing countries into the international economic order has been a major influence on their urbanization patterns, appreciation of the role of migration in urbanization, realization of the potential role of the state in mitigating spatial and structural inequalities created by the urbanization process, and recognition of the need for more detailed microeconomic studies and construction of more elaborate models of Third World economies.

Mobile source CO2 mitigation through smart growth development and vehicle fleet hybridization.

PubMed

Stone, Brian; Mednick, Adam C; Holloway, Tracey; Spak, Scott N

2009-03-15

This paper presents the results of a study on the effectiveness of smart growth development patterns and vehicle fleet hybridization in reducing mobile source emissions of carbon dioxide (CO2) across 11 major metropolitan regions of the Midwestern U.S. over a 50-year period. Through the integration of a vehicle travel activity modeling framework developed by researchers atthe Oak Ridge National Laboratory with small area population projections, we model mobile source emissions of CO2 associated with alternative land development and technology change scenarios between 2000 and 2050. Our findings suggest that under an aggressive smart growth scenario, growth in emissions expected to occur under a business as usual scenario is reduced by 34%, while the full dissemination of hybrid-electric vehicles throughout the light vehicle fleet is found to offset the expected growth in emissions by 97%. Our results further suggest that high levels of urban densification could achieve reductions in 2050 CO2 emissions equivalent to those attainable through the full dissemination of hybrid-electric vehicle technologies.

Land Use and Land Cover Changes and Urban Sprawl in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia: AN Analysis Using Multi-Temporal Landsat Data and SHANNON'S Entropy Index

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rahman, M. T.

2016-06-01

The city of Riyadh, Saudi Arabia has experienced rapid population growth and urban expansion over the past several decades. Due to such growth, the capital city faces many short and long-term social and environmental consequences. In order to monitor and mitigate some of these consequences, it is essential to examine the past changes and historical growth of the city. It is also essential to measure its urban sprawl over the past few decades. The objective of this study is to fulfil these goals. It does so by first examining the historical growth of the city of Riyadh. To do so, Landsat data over the past two and half decades are classified using a combination of supervised and unsupervised classification techniques. Based on the classification results, the study then uses Shannon's Entropy to measure the urban sprawl in the city. The results show that from 1990-2009, the urban built-up area of the city has increased by 90% in the western, south-eastern, and northern parts. The Shannon's entropy values show that the city is dispersing towards the outskirts of the city. The results from this study will assist city planners and government officials to plan, reduce, and perhaps mitigate some of the social and environmental consequences and enable the growth of the city in a sustainable manner in the near future.

Agricultural implications of providing soil-based constraints on urban expansion: Land use forecasts to 2050.

PubMed

Smidt, Samuel J; Tayyebi, Amin; Kendall, Anthony D; Pijanowski, Bryan C; Hyndman, David W

2018-07-01

Urbanization onto adjacent farmlands directly reduces the agricultural area available to meet the resource needs of a growing society. Soil conservation is a common objective in urban planning, but little focus has been placed on targeting soil value as a metric for conservation. This study assigns commodity and water storage values to the agricultural soils across all of the watersheds in Michigan's Lower Peninsula to evaluate how cities might respond to a soil conservation-based urbanization strategy. Land Transformation Model (LTM) simulations representing both traditional and soil conservation-based urbanization, are used to forecast urban area growth from 2010 to 2050 at five year intervals. The expansion of urban areas onto adjacent farmland is then evaluated to quantify the conservation effects of soil-based development. Results indicate that a soil-based protection strategy significantly conserves total farmland, especially more fertile soils within each soil type. In terms of revenue, ∼$88 million (in current dollars) would be conserved in 2050 using soil-based constraints, with the projected savings from 2011 to 2050 totaling more than $1.5 billion. Soil-based urbanization also increased urban density for each major metropolitan area. For example, there were 94,640 more acres directly adjacent to urban land by 2050 under traditional development compared to the soil-based urbanization strategy, indicating that urban sprawl was more tightly contained when including soil value as a metric to guide development. This study indicates that implementing a soil-based urbanization strategy would better satisfy future agricultural resource needs than traditional urban planning. Copyright © 2018. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

Spatiotemporal distributions of ambient oxides of nitrogen, with implications for exposure inequality and urban design.

PubMed

Yu, Haofei; Stuart, Amy L

2013-08-01

Intra-urban differences in concentrations of oxides of nitrogen (NO(x)) and exposure disparities in the Tampa area were investigated across temporal scales through emissions estimation, dispersion modeling, and analysis of residential subpopulation exposures. A hybrid estimation method was applied to provide link-level hourly on-road mobile source emissions. Ambient concentrations in 2002 at 1 km resolution were estimated using the CALPUFF dispersion model. Results were combined with residential demographic data at the block-group level, to investigate exposures and inequality for select racioethnic, age, and income population subgroups. Results indicate that on-road mobile sources contributed disproportionately to ground-level concentrations and dominated the spatial footprint across temporal scales (annual average to maximum hour). The black, lower income (less than $40K annually), and Hispanic subgroups had higher estimated exposures than the county average; the white and higher income (greater than $60K) subgroups had lower than average exposures. As annual average concentration increased, the disparity between groups generally increased. However for the highest 1-hr concentrations, reverse disparities were also found. Current studies of air pollution exposure inequality have not fully considered differences by time scale and are often limited in spatial resolution. The modeling methods and the results presented here can be used to improve understanding of potential impacts of urban growth form on health and to improve urban sustainability. Results suggest focusing urban design interventions on reducing on-road mobile source emissions in areas with high densities of minority and low income groups.

Modeling of Urban Heat Island at Global Scale

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

KC, B.; Ruth, M.

2015-12-01

Urban Heat Island (UHI) is the temperature difference between urban and its rural background temperature. At the local level, the choice of building materials and urban geometry are vital in determining the UHI magnitude of a city. At the city scale, economic growth, population, climate, and land use dynamics are the main drivers behind changes in UHIs. The main objective of this paper is to provide a comprehensive assessment of UHI based on these "macro variables" at regional and global scale. We based our analysis on published research for Europe, North America, and Asia, reporting data for 83 cities across the globe with unique climatic, economic, and environmental conditions. Exploratory data analysis including Pearson correlation was performed to explore the relationship between UHI and PM2.5 (particulate matter with aerodynamic diameter ≤5 microns), PM10 (particulate matter with aerodynamic diameter ≤10 microns), vegetation per capita, built area, Gross Domestic Product (GDP), population density and population. Additionally, dummy variables were used to capture potential influences of climate types (based on Koppen classifications) and the ways by which UHI was measured. We developed three linear regression models, one for each of the three continents (Asia, Europe, and North America) and one model for all the cities across these continents. This study provides a unique perspective for predicting UHI magnitudes at large scales based on economic activity and pollution levels of a city, which has important implications in urban planning.

Urban sprawl and delayed ambulance arrival in the U.S.

PubMed

Trowbridge, Matthew J; Gurka, Matthew J; O'Connor, Robert E

2009-11-01

Minimizing emergency medical service (EMS) response time is a central objective of prehospital care, yet the potential influence of built environment features such as urban sprawl on EMS system performance is often not considered. This study measures the association between urban sprawl and EMS response time to test the hypothesis that features of sprawling development increase the probability of delayed ambulance arrival. In 2008, EMS response times for 43,424 motor-vehicle crashes were obtained from the Fatal Analysis Reporting System, a national census of crashes involving > or =1 fatality. Sprawl at each crash location was measured using a continuous county-level index previously developed by Ewing et al. The association between sprawl and the probability of a delayed ambulance arrival (> or =8 minutes) was then measured using generalized linear mixed modeling to account for correlation among crashes from the same county. Urban sprawl is significantly associated with increased EMS response time and a higher probability of delayed ambulance arrival (p=0.03). This probability increases quadratically as the severity of sprawl increases while controlling for nighttime crash occurrence, road conditions, and presence of construction. For example, in sprawling counties (e.g., Fayette County GA), the probability of a delayed ambulance arrival for daytime crashes in dry conditions without construction was 69% (95% CI=66%, 72%) compared with 31% (95% CI=28%, 35%) in counties with prominent smart-growth characteristics (e.g., Delaware County PA). Urban sprawl is significantly associated with increased EMS response time and a higher probability of delayed ambulance arrival following motor-vehicle crashes in the U.S. The results of this study suggest that promotion of community design and development that follows smart-growth principles and regulates urban sprawl may improve EMS performance and reliability.

Does Urban Form Affect Urban NO2? Satellite-Based Evidence for More than 1200 Cities.

PubMed

Bechle, Matthew J; Millet, Dylan B; Marshall, Julian D

2017-11-07

Modifying urban form may be a strategy to mitigate urban air pollution. For example, evidence suggests that urban form can affect motor vehicle usage, a major contributor to urban air pollution. We use satellite-based measurements of urban form and nitrogen dioxide (NO 2 ) to explore relationships between urban form and air pollution for a global data  set of 1274 cities. Three of the urban form metrics studied (contiguity, circularity, and vegetation) have a statistically significant relationship with urban NO 2 ; their combined effect could be substantial. As illustration, if findings presented here are causal, that would suggest that if Christchurch, New Zealand (a city at the 75th percentile for all three urban-form metrics, and with a network of buses, trams, and bicycle facilities) was transformed to match the urban form of Indio - Cathedral City, California, United States (a city at the 25th percentile for those same metrics, and exhibiting sprawl-like suburban development), our models suggest that Christchurch's NO 2 concentrations would be ∼60% higher than its current level. We also find that the combined effect of urban form on NO 2 is larger for small cities (β × IQR = -0.46 for cities < ∼300 000 people, versus -0.22 for all cities), an important finding given that cities less than 500 000 people contain a majority of the urban population and are where much of the future urban growth is expected to occur. This work highlights the need for future study of how changes in urban form and related land use and transportation policies impact urban air pollution, especially for small cities.

Total Water Management, the New Paradigm for Urban Water Systems

EPA Science Inventory

There is a growing need for urban water managers to take a more holistic view of their water resource systems as population growth, urbanization, and current resource management practices put different stresses on local water resources and urban infrastructure. Total Water Manag...

Total Water Management: The New Paradigm for Urban Water Resources Planning

EPA Science Inventory

There is a growing need for urban water managers to take a more holistic view of their water resource systems as population growth, urbanization, and current resource management practices put different stresses on local water resources and urban infrastructure. Total Water Manag...

Urban Growth Detection Using Filtered Landsat Dense Time Trajectory in an Arid City

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ye, Z.; Schneider, A.

2014-12-01

Among all remote sensing environment monitoring techniques, time series analysis of biophysical index is drawing increasing attention. Although many of them studied forest disturbance and land cover change detection, few focused on urban growth mapping at medium spatial resolution. As Landsat archive becomes open accessible, methods using Landsat time-series imagery to detect urban growth is possible. It is found that a time trajectory from a newly developed urban area shows a dramatic drop of vegetation index. This enable the utilization of time trajectory analysis to distinguish impervious surface and crop land that has a different temporal biophysical pattern. Also, the time of change can be estimated, yet many challenges remain. Landsat data has lower temporal resolution, which may be worse when cloud-contaminated pixels and SLC-off effect exist. It is difficult to tease apart intra-annual, inter-annual, and land cover difference in a time series. Here, several methods of time trajectory analysis are utilized and compared to find a computationally efficient and accurate way on urban growth detection. A case study city, Ankara, Turkey is chosen for its arid climate and various landscape distributions. For preliminary research, Landsat TM and ETM+ scenes from 1998 to 2002 are chosen. NDVI, EVI, and SAVI are selected as research biophysical indices. The procedure starts with a seasonality filtering. Only areas with seasonality need to be filtered so as to decompose seasonality and extract overall trend. Harmonic transform, wavelet transform, and a pre-defined bell shape filter are used to estimate the overall trend in the time trajectory for each pixel. The point with significant drop in the trajectory is tagged as change point. After an urban change is detected, forward and backward checking is undertaken to make sure it is really new urban expansion other than short time crop fallow or forest disturbance. The method proposed here can capture most of the urban growth during research time period, although the accuracy of time point determination is a bit lower than this. Results from several biophysical indices and filtering methods are similar. Some fallows and bare lands in arid area are easily confused with urban impervious surface.

SMART GROWTH LAND USE PLANNING FOR A COMMUNITY AT THE RURAL URBAN INTERFACE UTILIZING STRUCTURED PUBLIC INVOLVEMENT

EPA Science Inventory

A. Simpson County, KY is facing suburban growth pressure like many communities across the country at the rural urban interface. This presents opportunities and challenges to maintain community identity, build economic diversity, protect environmental resources, and imp...

URBANIZATION EFFECTS ON TREE GROWTH IN THE VICINITY OF NEW YORK CITY

EPA Science Inventory

Plants in urban ecosystems are exposed to many pollutants and higher temperatures, CO2 and nitrogen deposition than plants in rural areas. Although each factor has a detrimental or beneficial influence on plant growth, the net effect of all factors and the key driving variables a...

Space Applications in Support of Future Urban Development in Armenia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Alhaddad, Bahaaeddin; Reppucci, Antonio; Moreno, Laura

2016-08-01

The fast growing of some cities has produced important changes in the urban sectors not always following sustainability criteria. As results, most urban growth falls outside formal planning controls and many cities suffer poor urban services management, traffic, and congestion, loss of green areas, poor air quality, and noise. The main advantages of satellite-based EO products are to support the decision-making process, and the development and operation of smart services. Satellite-based urban morphology analysis can help to identify the transformation of the urban development and evolution. The pilot presented here is a demonstration in the framework of the collaboration between ESA and ADB, called EOTAP "Earth Observation for a Transforming Asia Pacific". Aim of the pilot is to exploit satellite Earth observation data for sustainable growth and help preparing a series of city development and investment plans.

The ecological foundations of transmission potential and vector-borne disease in urban landscapes.

PubMed

LaDeau, Shannon L; Allan, Brian F; Leisnham, Paul T; Levy, Michael Z

2015-07-01

Urban transmission of arthropod-vectored disease has increased in recent decades. Understanding and managing transmission potential in urban landscapes requires integration of sociological and ecological processes that regulate vector population dynamics, feeding behavior, and vector-pathogen interactions in these unique ecosystems. Vectorial capacity is a key metric for generating predictive understanding about transmission potential in systems with obligate vector transmission. This review evaluates how urban conditions, specifically habitat suitability and local temperature regimes, and the heterogeneity of urban landscapes can influence the biologically-relevant parameters that define vectorial capacity: vector density, survivorship, biting rate, extrinsic incubation period, and vector competence.Urban landscapes represent unique mosaics of habitat. Incidence of vector-borne disease in urban host populations is rarely, if ever, evenly distributed across an urban area. The persistence and quality of vector habitat can vary significantly across socio-economic boundaries to influence vector species composition and abundance, often generating socio-economically distinct gradients of transmission potential across neighborhoods.Urban regions often experience unique temperature regimes, broadly termed urban heat islands (UHI). Arthropod vectors are ectothermic organisms and their growth, survival, and behavior are highly sensitive to environmental temperatures. Vector response to UHI conditions is dependent on regional temperature profiles relative to the vector's thermal performance range. In temperate climates UHI can facilitate increased vector development rates while having countervailing influence on survival and feeding behavior. Understanding how urban heat island (UHI) conditions alter thermal and moisture constraints across the vector life cycle to influence transmission processes is an important direction for both empirical and modeling research.There remain persistent gaps in understanding of vital rates and drivers in mosquito-vectored disease systems, and vast holes in understanding for other arthropod vectored diseases. Empirical studies are needed to better understand the physiological constraints and socio-ecological processes that generate heterogeneity in critical transmission parameters, including vector survival and fitness. Likewise, laboratory experiments and transmission models must evaluate vector response to realistic field conditions, including variability in sociological and environmental conditions.

Understanding the Long Run Determinants of Land Use in Global Crop Production

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Baldos, U. C.; Hertel, T. W.

2011-12-01

Cropland cover is expected to increase in the future given the projected growth on global demand for crops. Over the past century, crop demand has largely been driven by food demands, which were, in turn driven by a combination of rising population growth and increased per capita incomes, with the former dominating. However, with population growth slowing, and incomes rising more strongly in the developing world - where dietary upgrading is a significant factor - income growth has emerged as a relatively more significant driver of total food demand. At the same time, renewable energy policies across the world have introduced a new, dynamic element to the industrial demand for cropland. However, the drivers of long run cropland use are not limited to those directly related to crop demand. New trends suggest that crop yield growth may be slowing in critical breadbaskets around the world. In addition, some agricultural lands have been lost to urbanization and soil degradation. There is also a growing interest in setting aside land for biodiversity. Finally, there is considerable interest in terrestrial carbon sequestration which could place important new demands on the world's croplands. The co-existence of so many competing factors poses a challenge for properly assessing the long-run global supply and demand for croplands in 2050. In this paper, we quantify the contributions of each of these key drivers to the long-run global cropland use using a partial equilibrium model of global agriculture. To implement the model, we also construct a global database for key land use, agricultural and socio-economic variables from several sources. Our analysis starts with validation of the model over an historical period from 2001 up to 2007-05 (5 years). The model's prediction regarding cropland use is slightly lower than the observed change (+5.8% vs. +8.3%). Decomposition of the drivers of land use change shows that income growth (+3.9%) has a larger impact than population growth (+1.6%), biofuels (+0.2%) and urbanization (-0.3%). Technological change in crop, livestock and processed food production also have a modest impact on global cropland use over this historical period (+0.8%, -0.3% and +0.1%, respectively). We then turn our attention to projections of global land use over the coming decade. Here we project continued expansion in global cropland (13.7%). We then decompose the drivers of this projected change in land use. For example, if population grows at projected rates and yields grow at recent historical rates, then projected cropland use rises by just 1.7%. If we add urbanization, then global cropland use is slightly reduced (+1.5%). Because of the magnitude of the projected production targets, adding biofuels boosts global cropland use strongly (+4.2%) when added to the preceding factors. Adding technological change in the livestock and food processing sectors, as well as growth in per capita incomes boosts projected cropland use to 13.7%. In short, income growth is likely to be the critical driver of global cropland change in the future.

Quaternary extensional growth folding beneath Reno, Nevada, imaged by urban seismic profiling

USGS Publications Warehouse

Stephenson, William J.; Frary, Roxy N.; Louie, John; Odum, Jackson K.

2013-01-01

We characterize shallow subsurface faulting and basin structure along a transect through heavily urbanized Reno, Nevada, with high‐resolution seismic reflection imaging. The 6.8 km of P‐wave data image the subsurface to approximately 800 m depth and delineate two subbasins and basin uplift that are consistent with structure previously inferred from gravity modeling in this region of the northern Walker Lane. We interpret two primary faults that bound the uplift and deform Quaternary deposits. The dip of Quaternary and Tertiary strata in the western subbasin increases with greater depth to the east, suggesting recurrent fault motion across the westernmost of these faults. Deformation in the Quaternary section of the western subbasin is likely evidence of extensional growth folding at the edge of the Truckee River through Reno. This deformation is north of, and on trend with, previously mapped Quaternary fault strands of the Mt. Rose fault zone. In addition to corroborating the existence of previously inferred intrabasin structure, these data provide evidence for an active extensional Quaternary fault at a previously unknown location within the Truckee Meadows basin that furthers our understanding of both the seismotectonic framework and earthquake hazards in this urbanized region.

Residential mobility and trajectories of adiposity among adolescents in urban and non-urban neighborhoods.

PubMed

Jones, Antwan

2015-04-01

Using data from the 1994-2008 National Longitudinal Study of Adult Health (Add Health), this research examines the relationship between residential mobility and weight gain over time among urban and non-urban young adults. It is theorized that changes in residence act as a barrier to achieving an active lifestyle, which would increase an individual's body mass index (BMI) over time. Relying on linear mixed-effects growth curve models, the results indicate that mobility is protective against weight gain over time after controlling for sociodemographic characteristics. For young adults who are residentially stable in urban neighborhoods, increases in physical activity are associated with a linear decline in BMI. In non-urban areas where respondents are residentially mobile, body weight does not fluctuate as sedentary behavior increases. However, in those areas, weight increases as sedentary behavior increases for those who did not move. Overall, the results suggest that the effect of mobility on weight gain is partially due to the kind of health behaviors that one engages in as well as whether or not one lives in an urban area. Policies geared toward relocating residents (such as Moving to Opportunity), and neighborhood processes that can lead individuals to change residences (such as foreclosures or gentrification) may have adverse health effects depending on whether they are occurring in urban or non-urban areas.

Spatiotemporal Exploration of Impacts of Coupled Climate and Socioeconomic Changes on Grassland Ecosystems (Invited)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Xie, Y.

2013-12-01

Although the coupled impacts of climate change and human adaptation on land cover change has been a prime research topic in recent years, a majority of reported efforts are examining the coupled effects of climate and socioeconomic factors qualitatively. Even though some are applying statistical methods, they often look into the impacts of coupled climate variations and socioeconomic transformations on land cover changes in a detached or sequential manner, or they handle socioeconomic influences indirectly through land use changes. Very few of them deal with the coupled effects concurrently through times and cross regions. We assimilate a big dataset of climate change, plant community growth condition, and socioeconomic transformation in Inner Mongolia of China. The study area consists of twelve types of plant communities, reflecting an east-to-west water-temperature gradient from moist meadow-type, to typical steppe-type and then to arid desert-type communities. The enhanced vegetation index (EVI), derived from MODIS at a 250 m resolution and 16-day intervals from May 8 to September 28 during 2000-2010, is adopted as a proxy for vegetation growth. The inter-annual and intra-annual changes of seven climate factors (barometric pressure, humidity, precipitation, sunlight hours, temperature, vapor pressure and wind speed) during the same period are synchronized with the EVI observations. Ten socioeconomic variables (urban population, urban GDP, rural GDP, grain output, livestock, fixed assets investment, local government revenue, per capita net income of farmers and pastoralists, the total length of highways, and rural population) are collected over 34 counties in the study area and during the same period. The GIS-based spatial database approach is adopted to integrate all of the above data into a big spatiotemporal dataset. We develop a multi-controlled panel-data regression model to investigate spatiotemporal changes of vegetation growth and their underlying causes of coupled climate and human impacts. We are able to examine the causal relationships between vegetation growth and coupled climate change and socioeconomic transformation either from the perspective of seasonal, annual, eco-regional, or by-county change, respectively. Most importantly, we can investigate the causal relations concurrently over seasons and years and across administrative or ecological regions. The findings confirm that climate changes and human socioeconomic activities jointly affect vegetation growth and its trajectory of change; these climate and human factors reveal varied levels of impacts (sunshine hour, humidity, vapor, grain production, precipitation, urban-GDP, livestock, and urban population in descending order positively affect vegetation growth, while rural-GDP and rural population negatively do); and the causal relationships show clear seasonal trends, annual fluctuations, and regional disparities, depending on a variety of ecologically and economically varying contextual factors. The potential of applying our model and approach in the Eurasian Steppes is very promising.

Space-based monitoring of land-use/land-cover in the Upper Rio Grande Basin: An opportunity for understanding urbanization trends in a water-scarce transboundary river basin.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mubako, S. T.; Hargrove, W. L.; Heyman, J. M.; Reyes, C. S.

2016-12-01

Urbanization is an area of growing interest in assessing the impact of human activities on water resources in arid regions. Remote sensing techniques provide an opportunity to analyze land cover change over time, and are useful in monitoring areas undergoing rapid urban growth. This case study for the water-scarce Upper Rio Grande River Basin uses a supervised classification algorithm to quantify the rate and evaluate the pattern of urban sprawl. A focus is made on the fast growing El-Paso-Juarez metropolitan area on the US-Mexico border and the City of Las Cruces in New Mexico, areas where environmental challenges and loss of agricultural and native land to urban development are major concerns. Preliminary results show that the land cover is dominantly native with some significant agriculture along the Rio Grande River valley. Urban development across the whole study area expanded from just under 3 percent in 1990, to more than 11 percent in 2015. The urban expansion is occurring mainly around the major urban areas of El Paso, Ciudad Juarez, and Las Cruces, although there is visible growth of smaller urban settlements scattered along the Rio Grande River valley during the same analysis period. The proportion of native land cover fluctuates slightly depending on how much land is under crops each analysis year, but there is a decreasing agricultural land cover trend suggesting that land from this sector is being lost to urban development. This analysis can be useful in planning to protect the environment, preparing for growth in infrastructure such as schools, increased traffic demands, and monitoring availability of resources such as groundwater as the urban population grows.

Growth Type and Functional Trajectories: An Empirical Study of Urban Expansion in Nanjing, China

PubMed Central

Yuan, Feng

2016-01-01

Drawing upon the Landsat satellite images of Nanjing from 1985, 1995, 2001, 2007, and 2013, this paper integrates the convex hull analysis and common edge analysis at double scales, and develops a comprehensive matrix analysis to distinguish the different types of urban land expansion. The results show that Nanjing experienced rapid urban expansion, dominated by a mix of residential and manufacturing land from 1985 to 2013, which in turn has promoted Nanjing’s shift from a compact mononuclear city to a polycentric one. Spatial patterns of three specific types of growth, namely infilling, extension, and enclave were quite different in four consecutive periods. These patterns result primarily from the existing topographic constraints, as well as government-oriented urban planning and policies. By intersecting the function maps, we also reveal the functional evolution of newly-developed urban land. Moreover, both self-enhancing and mutual promotion of the newly developed functions are surveyed over the last decade. Our study confirms that the integration of a multi-scale method and multi-perspective analysis, such as the spatiotemporal patterns and functional evolution, helps us to better understand the rapid urban growth in China. PMID:26845155

Urban scaling and the production function for cities.

PubMed

Lobo, José; Bettencourt, Luís M A; Strumsky, Deborah; West, Geoffrey B

2013-01-01

The factors that account for the differences in the economic productivity of urban areas have remained difficult to measure and identify unambiguously. Here we show that a microscopic derivation of urban scaling relations for economic quantities vs. population, obtained from the consideration of social and infrastructural properties common to all cities, implies an effective model of economic output in the form of a Cobb-Douglas type production function. As a result we derive a new expression for the Total Factor Productivity (TFP) of urban areas, which is the standard measure of economic productivity per unit of aggregate production factors (labor and capital). Using these results we empirically demonstrate that there is a systematic dependence of urban productivity on city population size, resulting from the mismatch between the size dependence of wages and labor, so that in contemporary US cities productivity increases by about 11% with each doubling of their population. Moreover, deviations from the average scale dependence of economic output, capturing the effect of local factors, including history and other local contingencies, also manifest surprising regularities. Although, productivity is maximized by the combination of high wages and low labor input, high productivity cities show invariably high wages and high levels of employment relative to their size expectation. Conversely, low productivity cities show both low wages and employment. These results shed new light on the microscopic processes that underlie urban economic productivity, explain the emergence of effective aggregate urban economic output models in terms of labor and capital inputs and may inform the development of economic theory related to growth.

Urban Scaling and the Production Function for Cities

PubMed Central

Lobo, José; Bettencourt, Luís M. A.; Strumsky, Deborah; West, Geoffrey B.

2013-01-01

The factors that account for the differences in the economic productivity of urban areas have remained difficult to measure and identify unambiguously. Here we show that a microscopic derivation of urban scaling relations for economic quantities vs. population, obtained from the consideration of social and infrastructural properties common to all cities, implies an effective model of economic output in the form of a Cobb-Douglas type production function. As a result we derive a new expression for the Total Factor Productivity (TFP) of urban areas, which is the standard measure of economic productivity per unit of aggregate production factors (labor and capital). Using these results we empirically demonstrate that there is a systematic dependence of urban productivity on city population size, resulting from the mismatch between the size dependence of wages and labor, so that in contemporary US cities productivity increases by about 11% with each doubling of their population. Moreover, deviations from the average scale dependence of economic output, capturing the effect of local factors, including history and other local contingencies, also manifest surprising regularities. Although, productivity is maximized by the combination of high wages and low labor input, high productivity cities show invariably high wages and high levels of employment relative to their size expectation. Conversely, low productivity cities show both low wages and employment. These results shed new light on the microscopic processes that underlie urban economic productivity, explain the emergence of effective aggregate urban economic output models in terms of labor and capital inputs and may inform the development of economic theory related to growth. PMID:23544042

Predicting Urban Medical Services Demand in China: An Improved Grey Markov Chain Model by Taylor Approximation.

PubMed

Duan, Jinli; Jiao, Feng; Zhang, Qishan; Lin, Zhibin

2017-08-06

The sharp increase of the aging population has raised the pressure on the current limited medical resources in China. To better allocate resources, a more accurate prediction on medical service demand is very urgently needed. This study aims to improve the prediction on medical services demand in China. To achieve this aim, the study combines Taylor Approximation into the Grey Markov Chain model, and develops a new model named Taylor-Markov Chain GM (1,1) (T-MCGM (1,1)). The new model has been tested by adopting the historical data, which includes the medical service on treatment of diabetes, heart disease, and cerebrovascular disease from 1997 to 2015 in China. The model provides a predication on medical service demand of these three types of disease up to 2022. The results reveal an enormous growth of urban medical service demand in the future. The findings provide practical implications for the Health Administrative Department to allocate medical resources, and help hospitals to manage investments on medical facilities.

New particle formation at ground level and in the vertical column over the Barcelona area

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Minguillón, M. C.; Brines, M.; Pérez, N.; Reche, C.; Pandolfi, M.; Fonseca, A. S.; Amato, F.; Alastuey, A.; Lyasota, A.; Codina, B.; Lee, H.-K.; Eun, H.-R.; Ahn, K.-H.; Querol, X.

2015-10-01

The vertical profiles (up to 975 m a.s.l.) of ultrafine and micronic particles across the planetary boundary layer and the free troposphere over a Mediterranean urban environment were investigated. Measurements were carried out using a tethered balloon equipped with a miniaturized condensation particle counter, a miniaturized optical particle counter, a micro-aethalometer, a rotating impactor, and meteorological instrumentation. Simultaneous ground measurements were carried out at an urban and a regional background site. New particle formation episodes initiating in the urban area were observed under high insolation conditions. The precursors were emitted by the city and urban photochemically-activated nucleation occurred both at high atmospheric levels (tens to hundreds of meters) and at ground level. The new particle formation at ground level was limited by the high particulate matter concentrations recorded during the morning traffic rush hours that increase the condensation sink and prevent new particle formation, and therefore restricted to midday and early afternoon. The aloft new particle formation occurred earlier as the thermally ascending polluted air mass was diluted. The regional background was only affected from midday and early afternoon when sea and mountain breezes transported the urban air mass after particle growth. These events are different from most new particle formation events described in literature, characterized by a regionally originated nucleation, starting early in the morning in the regional background and persisting with a subsequent growth during a long period. An idealized and simplified model of the spatial and time occurrence of these two types of new particle formation episodes into, around and over the city was elaborated.

Cities and Urban Land Use in Advanced Placement Human Geography.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Ford, Larry R.

2000-01-01

Discusses the cities and urban land use section of the Advanced Placement (AP) human geography course, focusing on the: (1) definitions of urbanism; (2) origin and evolution of cities; (3) functional character of contemporary cities; (4) built environment and social space; and (5) responses to urban growth. (CMK)

Entry-Level Jobs, Mobility, and Urban Minority Unemployment.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Kasarda, John D.

1983-01-01

Documents the extent of urban transportation and entry-level job losses in major cities. Describes the mismatch between educational requisites of newer growth industries and educational background of urban minorities, and highlights the role of this mismatch in the increase in urban minority unemployment and welfare dependency. (EF)

Progress towards the child mortality millennium development goal in urban sub-Saharan Africa: the dynamics of population growth, immunization, and access to clean water.

PubMed

Fotso, Jean-Christophe; Ezeh, Alex Chika; Madise, Nyovani Janet; Ciera, James

2007-08-28

Improvements in child survival have been very poor in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA). Since the 1990 s, declines in child mortality have reversed in many countries in the region, while in others, they have either slowed or stalled, making it improbable that the target of reducing child mortality by two thirds by 2015 will be reached. This paper highlights the implications of urban population growth and access to health and social services on progress in achieving MDG 4. Specifically, it examines trends in childhood mortality in SSA in relation to urban population growth, vaccination coverage and access to safe drinking water. Correlation methods are used to analyze national-level data from the Demographic and Health Surveys and from the United Nations. The analysis is complemented by case studies on intra-urban health differences in Kenya and Zambia. Only five of the 22 countries included in the study have recorded declines in urban child mortality that are in line with the MDG target of about 4% per year; five others have recorded an increase; and the 12 remaining countries witnessed only minimal decline. More rapid rate of urban population growth is associated with negative trend in access to safe drinking water and in vaccination coverage, and ultimately to increasing or timid declines in child mortality. There is evidence of intra-urban disparities in child health in some countries like Kenya and Zambia. Failing to appropriately target the growing sub-group of the urban poor and improve their living conditions and health status - which is an MDG target itself - may result in lack of improvement on national indicators of health. Sustained expansion of potable water supplies and vaccination coverage among the disadvantaged urban dwellers should be given priority in the efforts to achieve the child mortality MDG in SSA.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Sultan, M.; Fiske, M.; Stein, T.

Comparisons of satellite images of the Nile Delta, acquired in 1972, 1984 and 1990, indicate that urban growth is endangering Egypt's agricultural productivity. Urban areas occupied a minimum of 3.6%, 4.7% and 5.7% of the Delta in 1972, 1984 and 1990, respectively, an increase of 58% in 18 years. Approximately half of this increase occurred between 1984 and 1990. If this trend continues, Egypt could lose 12% of its total agricultural area to urbanization by 2010. Despite the fact that growth is pronounced around the cities, it is the growth around the thousands of small villages that poses the largestmore » threat to the agricultural productivity of the Nile Delta. The cumulative growth rate for the cities and large villages between 1972 and 1990 is 37%, and that for the small villages is 77% for the same time period.« less

[State of the world population, 1986].

PubMed

1987-01-01

The majority of the world population will soon reside in urban areas. At present, over 40% of the world's people are urban, and 50% will be urban soon after the year 2000. The proportion urban in developed countries has exceeded 50% since the mid-20th century, and in developing countries this level will be reached in the 1st quarter of the next century. Developing countries in Asia and Africa have less than 30% of their population urban. While over 70% of Latin America's population is urban. Within the next 50 years, the predominantly rural character of the developing countries will disappear forever. Currently the majority of the world's urban population lives in developing countries. In 1970, 695 million urban dwellers were in developed countries vs. 666 million in developing countries, but by 1985, there were only 849 million urban dwellers in developed countries vs. 1164 million in developing countries. By the year 2025, there will be nearly 4 times as many urban dwellers in developing countries. An increasing proportion of the urban population will reside in the largest cities. Around 2025, almost 30% of the urban population in developing countries will live in cities of over 4 million. Around 2000 there will be 5 cities of 15 million or more, 3 of them in developing countries. The proportion of the 20 largest cities in developing countries will increase from 9 in 1970 to 16 in 2000. The close relationship between city size and economic development that existed until the recent past is disappearing. It is possible that the very largest cities will no longer be at the center of international political and economic networks. Many developing countries will have to develop plans for cities of sizes never imagined in the developed countries of today. High rates of population increase in the developing countries are an inseparable aspect of their urbanization. Growth of the urban population in developing countries will continue to be rapid until well into the 21st century. The world rate of urban growth will continue to be about 2.5%/year during the 1st quarter of sthe 21st century. The annual rate of urban growth is 3.5% in developing countries and is highest in Africa, especially West Africa where it reaches 6.5%/year. Despite migration to cities, the rural population in developing countries will continue to grow at a rate of about 1%/year through the end of the century. In many rural areas, population density is already very high, and continued growth will hamper efforts to reduce urban migration. In developing countries, the increase in the urban population is due more to natural increase than to migration.

Analysis of land suitability for urban development in Ahwaz County in southwestern Iran using fuzzy logic and analytic network process (ANP).

PubMed

Malmir, Maryam; Zarkesh, Mir Masoud Kheirkhah; Monavari, Seyed Masoud; Jozi, Seyed Ali; Sharifi, Esmail

2016-08-01

The ever-increasing development of cities due to population growth and migration has led to unplanned constructions and great changes in urban spatial structure, especially the physical development of cities in unsuitable places, which requires conscious guidance and fundamental organization. It is therefore necessary to identify suitable sites for future development of cities and prevent urban sprawl as one of the main concerns of urban managers and planners. In this study, to determine the suitable sites for urban development in the county of Ahwaz, the effective biophysical and socioeconomic criteria (including 27 sub-criteria) were initially determined based on literature review and interviews with certified experts. In the next step, a database of criteria and sub-criteria was prepared. Standardization of values and unification of scales in map layers were done using fuzzy logic. The criteria and sub-criteria were weighted by analytic network process (ANP) in the Super Decision software. Next, the map layers were overlaid using weighted linear combination (WLC) in the GIS software. According to the research findings, the final land suitability map was prepared with five suitability classes of very high (5.86 %), high (31.93 %), medium (38.61 %), low (17.65 %), and very low (5.95 %). Also, in terms of spatial distribution, suitable lands for urban development are mainly located in the central and southern parts of the Ahwaz County. It is expected that integration of fuzzy logic and ANP model will provide a better decision support tool compared with other models. The developed model can also be used in the land suitability analysis of other cities.

Assessing the impact of transitions from centralised to decentralised water solutions on existing infrastructures – Integrated city-scale analysis with VIBe

PubMed Central

Sitzenfrei, Robert; Möderl, Michael; Rauch, Wolfgang

2013-01-01

Traditional urban water management relies on central organised infrastructure, the most important being the drainage network and the water distribution network. To meet upcoming challenges such as climate change, the rapid growth and shrinking of cities and water scarcity, water infrastructure needs to be more flexible, adaptable and sustainable (e.g., sustainable urban drainage systems, SUDS; water sensitive urban design, WSUD; low impact development, LID; best management practice, BMP). The common feature of all solutions is the push from a central solution to a decentralised solution in urban water management. This approach opens up a variety of technical and socio-economic issues, but until now, a comprehensive assessment of the impact has not been made. This absence is most likely attributable to the lack of case studies, and the availability of adequate models is usually limited because of the time- and cost-intensive preparation phase. Thus, the results of the analysis are based on a few cases and can hardly be transferred to other boundary conditions. VIBe (Virtual Infrastructure Benchmarking) is a tool for the stochastic generation of urban water systems at the city scale for case study research. With the generated data sets, an integrated city-scale analysis can be performed. With this approach, we are able to draw conclusions regarding the technical effect of the transition from existing central to decentralised urban water systems. In addition, it is shown how virtual data sets can assist with the model building process. A simple model to predict the shear stress performance due to changes in dry weather flow production is developed and tested. PMID:24210508

Urban and rural land use in Puerto Rico

Treesearch

Sebastian Martinuzzi; William A. Gould; Olga M. Ramos Gonzalez; Maya Quinones; Michael E. Jimenez

2008-01-01

We have developed three land use regions for Puerto Rico: Urban, Suburban, and Rural (Gould et al. 2008; Martinuzzi et al. 2007). These three regions can also be considered urban, densely-populated rural, and sparsely-populated rural or as urban and wildland with a wildland-urban interface. The suburban use is the most dynamic in terms of population growth and land...

Temporal dynamics of a subtropical urban forest in San Juan, Puerto Rico, 2001-2010

Treesearch

J. M. Tucker Lima; C. L. Staudhammer; T. J. Brandeis; F. J. Escobedo; W. Zipperer

2013-01-01

Several studies report urban tree growth and mortality rates as well as species composition, structural dynamics, and other characteristics of urban forests in mostly temperate, inland urban areas. Temporal dynamics of urban forests in subtropical and tropical forest regions are, until now, little explored and represent a new and important direction for study and...

Urbanization prolongs hantavirus epidemics in cities

PubMed Central

Tian, Huaiyu; Hu, Shixiong; Chowell, Gerardo; Gao, Lidong; Li, Yapin; Yang, Huisuo; Li, Yidan; Yang, Qiqi; Tong, Xin; Huang, Ru; Bjornstad, Ottar N.; Xiao, Hong; Stenseth, Nils Chr.

2018-01-01

Urbanization and rural–urban migration are two factors driving global patterns of disease and mortality. There is significant concern about their potential impact on disease burden and the effectiveness of current control approaches. Few attempts have been made to increase our understanding of the relationship between urbanization and disease dynamics, although it is generally believed that urban living has contributed to reductions in communicable disease burden in industrialized countries. To investigate this relationship, we carried out spatiotemporal analyses using a 48-year-long dataset of hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome incidence (HFRS; mainly caused by two serotypes of hantavirus in China: Hantaan virus and Seoul virus) and population movements in an important endemic area of south China during the period 1963–2010. Our findings indicate that epidemics coincide with urbanization, geographic expansion, and migrant movement over time. We found a biphasic inverted U-shaped relationship between HFRS incidence and urbanization, with various endemic turning points associated with economic growth rates in cities. Our results revealed the interrelatedness of urbanization, migration, and hantavirus epidemiology, potentially explaining why urbanizing cities with high economic growth exhibit extended epidemics. Our results also highlight contrasting effects of urbanization on zoonotic disease outbreaks during periods of economic development in China. PMID:29666240

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Tjade, A.S.

The relationship between urban growth and energy consumption to public transport is analyzed. The main emphasis is upon daily travel in urban areas. Recommendations are made on how different urban functions should be located and developed to minimize the energy consumption for daily travels.

Automatic mapping of urban areas from Landsat data using impervious surface fraction algorithm

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nguyen, S. T.; Chen, C. F.; Chen, C. R.

2014-12-01

Urbanization is a result of aggregation of people in urban areas that can help advance socioeconomic development and pull out people from the poverty line. However, if not monitored well, it can also lead to loss of farmlands, natural forests as well as to societal impacts including burgeoning growth of slums, pollution, and crime. Thus, spatiotemporal information that shapes the urbanization is thus critical to the process of urban planning. The overall objective of this study is to develop an impervious surface fraction algorithm (ISFA) for automatically mapping urban areas from Landsat data. We processed the data for 1986, 2001 and 2014 to trace the multi-decadal spatiotemporal change of Honduran capital city using a three-step procedure: (1) data pre-processing to perform image normalization as well as to produce the difference in the values (DVSS) between the simple ratio (SR) of green and shortwave bands and the soil adjust vegetation index (SAVI), (2) quantification of urban areas using ISFA, and (3) accuracy assessment of mapping results using the ground reference data constructed using land-cover maps and FORMOSAT-2 imagery. The mapping accuracy assessment was performed for 2001 and 2014 by comparing with the ground reference data indicated satisfactory results with the overall accuracies and Kappa coefficients generally higher than 90% and 0.8, respectively. When examining the urbanization between these years, it could be observed that the urban area was significantly expanded from 1986 to 2014, mainly driven by two factors of rapid population growth and socioeconomic development. This study eventually leads to a realization of the merit of using ISFA for multi-decadal monitoring of the urbanization of Honduran capital city from Landsat data. Results from this research can be used by urban planners as a general indicator to quantify urban change and environmental impacts. The methods were thus transferable to monitor urban growth in cities and their peri areas around the world.

The scaling structure of the global road network

PubMed Central

Giometto, Andrea; Shai, Saray; Bertuzzo, Enrico; Mucha, Peter J.; Rinaldo, Andrea

2017-01-01

Because of increasing global urbanization and its immediate consequences, including changes in patterns of food demand, circulation and land use, the next century will witness a major increase in the extent of paved roads built worldwide. To model the effects of this increase, it is crucial to understand whether possible self-organized patterns are inherent in the global road network structure. Here, we use the largest updated database comprising all major roads on the Earth, together with global urban and cropland inventories, to suggest that road length distributions within croplands are indistinguishable from urban ones, once rescaled to account for the difference in mean road length. Such similarity extends to road length distributions within urban or agricultural domains of a given area. We find two distinct regimes for the scaling of the mean road length with the associated area, holding in general at small and at large values of the latter. In suitably large urban and cropland domains, we find that mean and total road lengths increase linearly with their domain area, differently from earlier suggestions. Scaling regimes suggest that simple and universal mechanisms regulate urban and cropland road expansion at the global scale. As such, our findings bear implications for global road infrastructure growth based on land-use change and for planning policies sustaining urban expansions. PMID:29134071

The scaling structure of the global road network.

PubMed

Strano, Emanuele; Giometto, Andrea; Shai, Saray; Bertuzzo, Enrico; Mucha, Peter J; Rinaldo, Andrea

2017-10-01

Because of increasing global urbanization and its immediate consequences, including changes in patterns of food demand, circulation and land use, the next century will witness a major increase in the extent of paved roads built worldwide. To model the effects of this increase, it is crucial to understand whether possible self-organized patterns are inherent in the global road network structure. Here, we use the largest updated database comprising all major roads on the Earth, together with global urban and cropland inventories, to suggest that road length distributions within croplands are indistinguishable from urban ones, once rescaled to account for the difference in mean road length. Such similarity extends to road length distributions within urban or agricultural domains of a given area. We find two distinct regimes for the scaling of the mean road length with the associated area, holding in general at small and at large values of the latter. In suitably large urban and cropland domains, we find that mean and total road lengths increase linearly with their domain area, differently from earlier suggestions. Scaling regimes suggest that simple and universal mechanisms regulate urban and cropland road expansion at the global scale. As such, our findings bear implications for global road infrastructure growth based on land-use change and for planning policies sustaining urban expansions.

The impact of projected increases in urbanization on ecosystem services.

PubMed

Eigenbrod, F; Bell, V A; Davies, H N; Heinemeyer, A; Armsworth, P R; Gaston, K J

2011-11-07

Alteration in land use is likely to be a major driver of changes in the distribution of ecosystem services before 2050. In Europe, urbanization will probably be the main cause of land-use change. This increase in urbanization will result in spatial shifts in both supplies of ecosystem services and the beneficiaries of those services; the net outcome of such shifts remains to be determined. Here, we model changes in urban land cover in Britain based on large (16%) projected increases in the human population by 2031, and the consequences for three different services--flood mitigation, agricultural production and carbon storage. We show that under a scenario of densification of urban areas, the combined effect of increasing population and loss of permeable surfaces is likely to result in 1.7 million people living within 1 km of rivers with at least 10 per cent increases in projected peak flows, but that increasing suburban 'sprawl' will have little effect on flood mitigation services. Conversely, losses of stored carbon and agricultural production are over three times as high under the sprawl as under the 'densification' urban growth scenarios. Our results illustrate the challenges of meeting, but also of predicting, future demands and patterns of ecosystem services in the face of increasing urbanization.

The impact of projected increases in urbanization on ecosystem services

PubMed Central

Eigenbrod, F.; Bell, V. A.; Davies, H. N.; Heinemeyer, A.; Armsworth, P. R.; Gaston, K. J.

2011-01-01

Alteration in land use is likely to be a major driver of changes in the distribution of ecosystem services before 2050. In Europe, urbanization will probably be the main cause of land-use change. This increase in urbanization will result in spatial shifts in both supplies of ecosystem services and the beneficiaries of those services; the net outcome of such shifts remains to be determined. Here, we model changes in urban land cover in Britain based on large (16%) projected increases in the human population by 2031, and the consequences for three different services—flood mitigation, agricultural production and carbon storage. We show that under a scenario of densification of urban areas, the combined effect of increasing population and loss of permeable surfaces is likely to result in 1.7 million people living within 1 km of rivers with at least 10 per cent increases in projected peak flows, but that increasing suburban ‘sprawl’ will have little effect on flood mitigation services. Conversely, losses of stored carbon and agricultural production are over three times as high under the sprawl as under the ‘densification’ urban growth scenarios. Our results illustrate the challenges of meeting, but also of predicting, future demands and patterns of ecosystem services in the face of increasing urbanization. PMID:21389035

Resolving the interactions between population density and air pollution emissions controls in the San Joaquin Valley, USA.

PubMed

Hixson, Mark; Mahmud, Abdullah; Hu, Jianlin; Kleeman, Michael J

2012-05-01

The effectiveness of emissions control programs designed to reduce concentrations of airborne particulate matter with an aerodynamic diameter < 2.5 microm (PM2.5) in California's San Joaquin Valley was studied in the year 2030 under three growth scenarios: low, medium, and high population density. Base-case inventories for each choice of population density were created using a coupled emissions modeling system that simultaneously considered interactions between land use and transportation, area source, and point source emissions. The ambient PM2.5 response to each combination of population density and emissions control was evaluated using a regional chemical transport model over a 3-week winter stagnation episode. Comparisons between scenarios were based on regional average and population-weighted PM2.5 concentrations. In the absence of any emissions control program, population-weighted concentrations of PM2.5 in the future San Joaquin Valley are lowest undergrowth scenarios that emphasize low population density. A complete ban on wood burning and a 90% reduction in emissions from food cooking operations and diesel engines must occur before medium- to high-density growth scenarios result in lower population-weighted concentrations of PM2.5. These trends partly reflect the fact that existing downtown urban cores that naturally act as anchor points for new high-density growth in the San Joaquin Valley are located close to major transportation corridors for goods movement. Adding growth buffers around transportation corridors had little impact in the current analysis, since the 8-km resolution of the chemical transport model already provided an artificial buffer around major emissions sources. Assuming that future emissions controls will greatly reduce or eliminate emissions from residential wood burning, food cooking, and diesel engines, the 2030 growth scenario using "as-planned" (medium) population density achieves the lowest population-weighted average PM2.5 concentration in the future San Joaquin Valley during a severe winter stagnation event. The San Joaquin Valley is one of the most heavily polluted air basins in the United States that are projected to experience strong population growth in the coming decades. The best plan to improve air quality in the region combines medium- or high-density population growth with rigorous emissions controls. In the absences of controls, high-density growth leads to increased population exposure to PM2.5 compared with low-density growth scenarios (urban sprawl).

Migration and nutritional status of Tarahumara schoolchildren from Chihuahua State (México).

PubMed

Benítez-Hernández, Zuliana Paola; De la Torre-Díaz, María de Lourdes; Cervantes-Borunda, Mónica; Hernández-Torres, Rosa Patricia; Cabañas, María Dolores; López-Ejeda, Noemí; Marrodán, María Dolores

2017-01-01

The Tarahumara ethnic group is composed of indigenous people from the Sierra Madre Occidental of Mexico. Conditions of isolation and poverty compel them to migrate to the city in search of better opportunities. This work aims to explore the influence of migration on the growth and nutritional status of Tarahumara schoolchildren. One hundred Tarahumara students were analyzed (50 rural with a mean age of 9.78 ± 1.25 years; 50 urban aged 10.0 ± 1.04 years), comparing anthropometric indicators and body composition (T-Student, U-Mann-Whitney Tests). Twenty percent of rural girls and 35% of rural boys showed stunted growth compared to only 9% of the urban girls (no stunted growth among urban boys). Migrants showed greater body size, skinfold thickness, and fat percentage. Weight excess, understood as an increase in the prevalence of overweight and obesity, was detected in 17.8% of urban boys and 13.6% of urban girls compared to 10.0% of boys and 3.3% of girls of the rural series. Migration reduces stunting and increases adiposity. © 2016 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Modelling and optimization of land use/land cover change in a developing urban catchment.

PubMed

Xu, Ping; Gao, Fei; He, Junchao; Ren, Xinxin; Xi, Weijin

2017-06-01

The impacts of land use/cover change (LUCC) on hydrological processes and water resources are mainly reflected in changes in runoff and pollutant variations. Low impact development (LID) technology is utilized as an effective strategy to control urban stormwater runoff and pollution in the urban catchment. In this study, the impact of LUCC on runoff and pollutants in an urbanizing catchment of Guang-Ming New District in Shenzhen, China, were quantified using a dynamic rainfall-runoff model with the EPA Storm Water Management Model (SWMM). Based on the simulations and observations, the main objectives of this study were: (1) to evaluate the catchment runoff and pollutant variations with LUCC, (2) to select and optimize the appropriate layout of LID in a planning scenario for reducing the growth of runoff and pollutants under LUCC, (3) to assess the optimal planning schemes for land use/cover. The results showed that compared to 2013, the runoff volume, peak flow and pollution load of suspended solids (SS), and chemical oxygen demand increased by 35.1%, 33.6% and 248.5%, and 54.5% respectively in a traditional planning scenario. The assessment result of optimal planning of land use showed that annual rainfall control of land use for an optimal planning scenario with LID technology was 65%, and SS pollutant load reduction efficiency 65.6%.

Counterinsurgency and Operational Art: Is the Joint Campaign Planning Model Adequate?

DTIC Science & Technology

2003-01-01

ART: IS THE JOINT CAMAPIGN PLANNING MODEL ADEQUATE? by MAJ Thomas Erik Miller, USA, 90 pages. The United States has conducted or supported more than a...increase. Some of the effects of the fall of the Soviet Union were a loosening of internal and external political and social controls in formerly Soviet...order” in the social , economic and political arena through rapid growth in population and urbanization in the underdeveloped world, globalization and

Using Agent-Based Modeling to Enhance System-Level Real-time Control of Urban Stormwater Systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rimer, S.; Mullapudi, A. M.; Kerkez, B.

2017-12-01

The ability to reduce combined-sewer overflow (CSO) events is an issue that challenges over 800 U.S. municipalities. When the volume of a combined sewer system or wastewater treatment plant is exceeded, untreated wastewater then overflows (a CSO event) into nearby streams, rivers, or other water bodies causing localized urban flooding and pollution. The likelihood and impact of CSO events has only exacerbated due to urbanization, population growth, climate change, aging infrastructure, and system complexity. Thus, there is an urgent need for urban areas to manage CSO events. Traditionally, mitigating CSO events has been carried out via time-intensive and expensive structural interventions such as retention basins or sewer separation, which are able to reduce CSO events, but are costly, arduous, and only provide a fixed solution to a dynamic problem. Real-time control (RTC) of urban drainage systems using sensor and actuator networks has served as an inexpensive and versatile alternative to traditional CSO intervention. In particular, retrofitting individual stormwater elements for sensing and automated active distributed control has been shown to significantly reduce the volume of discharge during CSO events, with some RTC models demonstrating a reduction upwards of 90% when compared to traditional passive systems. As more stormwater elements become retrofitted for RTC, system-level RTC across complete watersheds is an attainable possibility. However, when considering the diverse set of control needs of each of these individual stormwater elements, such system-level RTC becomes a far more complex problem. To address such diverse control needs, agent-based modeling is employed such that each individual stormwater element is treated as an autonomous agent with a diverse decision making capabilities. We present preliminary results and limitations of utilizing the agent-based modeling computational framework for the system-level control of diverse, interacting stormwater elements.

Measuring the past 20 years of urban-rural land growth in flood-prone areas in the developed Taihu Lake watershed, China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Su, Weizhong

2017-03-01

There is growing interest in using the urban landscape for stormwater management studies, where land patterns and processes can be important controls for the sustainability of urban development and planning. This paper proposes an original index of Major Hazard Oriented Level (MHOL) and investigates the structure distribution, driving factors, and controlling suggestions of urban-rural land growth in flood-prone areas in the Taihu Lake watershed, China. The MHOL of incremental urban-rural land increased from M 31.51 during the years 1985-1995 to M 38.37 during the years 1995-2010 (M for medium structure distribution, and the number for high-hazard value). The index shows that urban-rural land was distributed uniformly in flood hazard levels and tended to move rapidly to high-hazard areas, where 72.68% of incremental urban-rural land was aggregated maximally in new urban districts along the Huning traffic line and the Yangtze River. Thus, the current accelerating growth of new urban districts could account for the ampliative exposure to high-hazard areas. New districts are driven by the powerful link between land financial benefits and political achievements for local governments and the past unsustainable process of "single objective" oriented planning. The correlation categorical analysis of the current development intensity and carrying capacity of hydrological ecosystems for sub-basins was used to determine four types of development areas and provide decision makers with indications on the future watershed-scale subdivision of Major Function Oriented Zoning implemented by the Chinese government.

Total Water Management - Report

EPA Science Inventory

There is a growing need for urban water managers to take a more holistic view of their water resource systems as population growth, urbanization, and current operations put different stresses on the environment and urban infrastructure. Total Water Management (TWM) is an approac...

Water quantity and quality at the urban-rural interface

Treesearch

Ge Sun; B. Graeme Lockaby

2012-01-01

Population growth and urban development dramatically alter natural watershed ecosystem structure and functions and stress water resources. We review studies on the impacts of urbanization on hydrologic and biogeochemical processes underlying stream water quantity and water quality issues, as well as water supply challenges in an urban environment. We conclude that...

Gainesville's urban forest canopy cover

Treesearch

Francisco Escobedo; Jennifer A. Seitz; Wayne Zipperer

2009-01-01

Ecosystem benefits from trees are linked directly to the amount of healthy urban forest canopy cover. Urban forest cover is dynamic and changes over time due to factors such as urban development, windstorms, tree removals, and growth. The amount of a city's canopy cover depends on its land use, climate, and people's preferences. This fact sheet examines how...

Impacts of Urbanization on Flood and Soil Erosion Hazards in Istanbul, Turkey

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Ozacar, Biricik Gozde

2013-01-01

Due to the inappropriate planning and explosive population growth in urban areas, especially in developing countries, sustainable and disaster-safe urbanization has become the most important challenge for governments. Urbanization presents benefits in different ways but has led simultaneously to changes in land use/land cover (LULC), impacting…

Are autonomous cities our urban future?

PubMed

Norman, Barbara

2018-05-29

Cities are rapidly expanding in size, wealth and power, with some now larger than nation states. Smart city solutions and strong global urban networks are developing to manage massive urban growth. However, cities exist within a wider system and it may take more than technological advances, innovation and city autonomy to develop a sustainable urban future.

Urban adaptation to mega-drought: Anticipatory water modeling, policy, and planning in Phoenix

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gober, P.; Sampson, D. A.; Quay, R.; White, D. D.; Chow, W.

2016-12-01

There is increasing interest in using the results of water models for long-term planning and policy analysis. Achieving this goal requires more effective integration of human dimensions into water modeling and a paradigm shift in the way models are developed and used. A user-defined focus argues in favor of models that are designed to foster public debate and engagement about the difficult trade-offs that are inevitable in managing complex water systems. These models also emphasize decision making under uncertainty and anticipatory planning, and are developed through a collaborative and iterative process. This paper demonstrates the use of anticipatory modeling for long-term drought planning in Phoenix, one of the largest and fastest growing urban areas in the southwestern USA. WaterSim 5, an anticipatory water policy and planning model, was used to explore groundwater sustainability outcomes for mega-drought conditions across a range of policies, including population growth management, water conservation, water banking, direct reuse of RO reclaimed water, and water augmentation. Results revealed that business-as-usual population growth, per capita use trends, and management strategies may not be sustainable over the long term, even without mega-drought conditions as years of available groundwater supply decline over the simulation period from 2000 to 2060. Adding mega-drought increases the decline in aquifer levels and increases the variability in flows and uncertainty about future groundwater supplies. Simulations that combine drought management policies can return the region to sustainable. Results demonstrate the value of long-term planning and policy analysis for anticipating and adapting to environmental change.

Potential for use of environmental factors in urban planning

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Teixeira da Silva, Ricardo; van der Ploeg, Martine; van Delden, Hedwig; Fleskens, Luuk

2016-04-01

Projections for population growth estimate, on top of the current 7.4 billion world population, an increase of 2 billion people for the next 40 years. It is also projected that 66 per cent of the world population in 2050 will live in urban areas. To accommodate the urban population growth cities are changing continuously land cover to urban areas. Such changes are a threat for natural resources and food production systems stability and capability to provide food and other functions. However, little has been done concerning a rational soil management for food production in urban and peri-urban areas. This study focuses on the assessment of soil lost due to urban expansion and discusses the potential loss regarding the quality of the soil for food production and environmental functions. It is relevant to increase the knowledge on the role of soils in peri-urban areas and in the interaction of physical, environmental and social factors. The methodology consists of assessing the soil quality in and around urban and peri-urban areas. It focuses particularly on the physical properties and the environmental factors, for two periods of time and account the potential losses due to urban expansion. This project is on-going, therefore current advances will be presented and will look for a discussion on the contribution of soil quality for decision-making and land management in urban and peri-urban areas.

Depressive Symptoms, Social Support and Violence Exposure Among Urban Youth: A Longitudinal Study of Resilience

PubMed Central

Eisman, Andria B.; Stoddard, Sarah A.; Heinze, Justin; Caldwell, Cleopatra H.; Zimmerman, Marc A.

2015-01-01

Depression is a serious mental health concern among adolescents. Violence exposure is a potent risk factor for depression. Social support may help reduce depression risk, even when adolescents are exposed to violence. Using a compensatory model of resilience, we investigate the influence of violence exposure and social support on depression over time in a sample of urban youth during the high school years (N=824, 52% female, mean age year 1 = 14.9). We used growth curve modeling to examine depressive symptoms across adolescence and its association with violence exposure and social support, accounting for important sociodemographic characteristics (sex, socioeconomic status and race/ethnicity). Depressive symptoms on average increase from year one to two of high school and then are stable or decline from years two to four. Violence observation and conflict in the family were each associated with increased depressive symptoms during the high school years. Mother support was associated with decreased depressive symptoms over time. Our results support a compensatory model of resilience. Promoting positive parent-child communication among urban youth living in disadvantaged contexts may help reduce the probability that exposure to violence will result in depressive symptoms. PMID:26147772

The Growth and Structure of Cities Program: An Innovative Approach to Urban Studies.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Bryn Mawr Coll., PA.

The long term aims of the Growth and Structure of Cities major at Bryn Mawr College are to introduce into the curriculum an interdisciplinary program which builds on existing strengths within the college and which offers students the opportunity to study the changing character of the contemporary urban environment in an historical, aesthetic, and…

Houston's Regional Forest

Treesearch

David J. Nowak; Peter D. Smith; Michael Merritt; John Giedraitis; Jeffrey T. Walton; Robert E. Hoehn; Jack C. Stevens; Daniel E. Crane; Mark Estes; Stephen Stetson; Charles Burditt; David Hitchcock; Wendee Holtcamp

2005-01-01

The population in and around Houston has grown rapidly over the past twenty years, now exceeding five million people. Studies of the area have noted that the loss of trees and changes to the forest makeup have generally accompanied this growth. Trees and urban forestry practices can be used effectively to reduce many of the negative effects of urban growth and other...

Smart Growth for a Sustainable Urban Environment - Concepts and Practice in US and China (CLASS PRESENTATION)

EPA Science Inventory

This is an invited seminar to a class of undergraduate and graduate students at DAAP of the University of Cincinnati. It provides students the concepts and trends in smart growth and sustainable urban development in U.S. and China. The materials are drawn from my research and m...

Automated Geospatial Watershed Assessment Tool (AGWA): Applications for Assessing the Impact of Urban Growth and the use of Low Impact Development Practices.

EPA Science Inventory

New tools and functionality have been incorporated into the Automated Geospatial Watershed Assessment Tool (AGWA) to assess the impact of urban growth and evaluate the effects of low impact development (LID) practices. AGWA (see: www.tucson.ars.ag.gov/agwa or http://www.epa.gov...

Scale Modelling of Nocturnal Cooling in Urban Parks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Spronken-Smith, R. A.; Oke, T. R.

Scale modelling is used to determine the relative contribution of heat transfer processes to the nocturnal cooling of urban parks and the characteristic temporal and spatial variation of surface temperature. Validation is achieved using a hardware model-to-numerical model-to-field observation chain of comparisons. For the calm case, modelling shows that urban-park differences of sky view factor (s) and thermal admittance () are the relevant properties governing the park cool island (PCI) effect. Reduction in sky view factor by buildings and trees decreases the drain of longwave radiation from the surface to the sky. Thus park areas near the perimeter where there may be a line of buildings or trees, or even sites within a park containing tree clumps or individual trees, generally cool less than open areas. The edge effect applies within distances of about 2.2 to 3.5 times the height of the border obstruction, i.e., to have any part of the park cooling at the maximum rate a square park must be at least twice these dimensions in width. Although the central areas of parks larger than this will experience greater cooling they will accumulate a larger volume of cold air that may make it possible for them to initiate a thermal circulation and extend the influence of the park into the surrounding city. Given real world values of s and it seems likely that radiation and conduction play almost equal roles in nocturnal PCI development. Evaporation is not a significant cooling mechanism in the nocturnal calm case but by day it is probably critical in establishing a PCI by sunset. It is likely that conditions that favour PCI by day (tree shade, soil wetness) retard PCI growth at night. The present work, which only deals with PCI growth, cannot predict which type of park will be coolest at night. Complete specification of nocturnal PCI magnitude requires knowledge of the PCI at sunset, and this depends on daytime energetics.

Web-Based Urban Metabolic Mapping for Bangalore, India

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mehta, V. K.; Kemp-Benedict, E.; Wang, G.; Malghan, D.

2012-12-01

Cities are like living entities, needing a continuous throughput of resources and energy for survival and growth, creating waste in the process. This paper documents the Bangalore Urban Mapping Project: an initiative that uses this metabolic concept [1],[2]. to inform comprehensive planning in the rapidly growing software capital of Bangalore city in India. Focusing on demographic growth, and water supply and consumption in its first phase, a web-based geo-portal has been developed for two purposes - interactive information communication and delivery, and online planning in the water supply sector. The application, titled Bangalore Urban Mapping Project (BUMP) is built on a free and open source web GIS stack consisting of a Postgis database, PHP, OpenLayers, and Apache Web Server deployed on a 64-bit Ubuntu Linux server platform. The interactive planning portion of the application allows BUMP users to build, run and visualize demographic growth, water supply, and growth scenarios on the browser. Application logic is written in PHP to connect the many components of the interactive application, which is available on the BUMP website (http://www.seimapping.org/bump/index.php). It relies on AJAX to fetch layer data from the server and render the layer using OpenLayers on the fly. This allows users to view multiple layers at the same time without refreshing the page. Data is packed in GeoJSON format and is compressed to reduce traffic. The information communication portion of the application provides thematic representation of each of twenty different map layers, graphical and tabular summaries of demographic and water data that are presented dynamically using Javascript libraries including the Google Chart API. The application also uses other common Javascript libraries/plug-ins, like jQuery, jQuery UI, qTip, to ease the development and to ensure cross-browser compatibility. The planning portion of the platform allows the user to interact with a scenario explorer through which key aspects of the city's growth, water demand, and supply infrastructure can be entered. This drives a water resources model built on the Water Evaluation And Planning (www.weap21.org) software platform [3] running on a server, that returns key results to the browser. The paper concludes with plans for future development of BUMP, which include crowd-sourcing of water demand and groundwater information, in the face of a critical knowledge gap on both the demand and supply side of the water sector in Indian cities. [1] Newman, P.W.G., 1999. Sustainability and cities: extending the metabolism model. Landscape and urban planning 44, 219-226. [2] Sieferle, R.P., 2011. Cultural Evolution and Social Metabolism. Geografiska Annaler: Series B, Human Geography [3] 93, 315-324. Yates, D., Sieber, J., Purkey, D., Huber-Lee, A., 2005. WEAP21—A Demand-, Priority-, and Preference-Driven Water Planning Model. Water International 30, 487-500.

Monitoring Million Trees LA: Tree performance during the early years and future benefits

Treesearch

E. Gregory McPherson

2014-01-01

Million Trees LA (MTLA) is one of several large-scale mayoral tree planting initiatives striving to create more livable cities through urban forestry. This study combined field sampling of tree survival and growth with numerical modeling of future benefits to assess performance of MTLA plantings. From 2006 to 2010 MTLA planted a diverse mix of 91,786 trees....

Spatiotemporal Characteristics, Determinants and Scenario Analysis of CO2 Emissions in China Using Provincial Panel Data.

PubMed

Wang, Shaojian; Fang, Chuanglin; Li, Guangdong

2015-01-01

This paper empirically investigated the spatiotemporal variations, influencing factors and future emission trends of China's CO2 emissions based on a provincial panel data set. A series of panel econometric models were used taking the period 1995-2011 into consideration. The results indicated that CO2 emissions in China increased over time, and were characterized by noticeable regional discrepancies; in addition, CO2 emissions also exhibited properties of spatial dependence and convergence. Factors such as population scale, economic level and urbanization level exerted a positive influence on CO2 emissions. Conversely, energy intensity was identified as having a negative influence on CO2 emissions. In addition, the significance of the relationship between CO2 emissions and the four variables varied across the provinces based on their scale of economic development. Scenario simulations further showed that the scenario of middle economic growth, middle population increase, low urbanization growth, and high technology improvement (here referred to as Scenario BTU), constitutes the best development model for China to realize the future sustainable development. Based on these empirical findings, we also provide a number of policy recommendations with respect to the future mitigation of CO2 emissions.

Spatiotemporal Characteristics, Determinants and Scenario Analysis of CO2 Emissions in China Using Provincial Panel Data

PubMed Central

Wang, Shaojian

2015-01-01

This paper empirically investigated the spatiotemporal variations, influencing factors and future emission trends of China’s CO2 emissions based on a provincial panel data set. A series of panel econometric models were used taking the period 1995–2011 into consideration. The results indicated that CO2 emissions in China increased over time, and were characterized by noticeable regional discrepancies; in addition, CO2 emissions also exhibited properties of spatial dependence and convergence. Factors such as population scale, economic level and urbanization level exerted a positive influence on CO2 emissions. Conversely, energy intensity was identified as having a negative influence on CO2 emissions. In addition, the significance of the relationship between CO2 emissions and the four variables varied across the provinces based on their scale of economic development. Scenario simulations further showed that the scenario of middle economic growth, middle population increase, low urbanization growth, and high technology improvement (here referred to as Scenario BTU), constitutes the best development model for China to realize the future sustainable development. Based on these empirical findings, we also provide a number of policy recommendations with respect to the future mitigation of CO2 emissions. PMID:26397373

The inter-relationships between urban dynamics and water resource and supply based on multitemporal analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Aldea, Alexandru; Aldea, Mihaela

2016-08-01

The growth and concentration of population, housing and industry in urban and suburban areas in the continuous evolution of a city over time causes complex social, economic, and physical challenges. The population and its relationship with the use and development of the land and water is a critical issue of urban growth, and since ancient times land, water and man were directly involved in the human populations' survival. Nevertheless the current potential of study over this relationship between urban growth, water supply, drainage and water resources conditions becomes more and more attractive due to the possibility to make use of the broader variety of information sources and technologies readily available in recent years, with emphasis on the open data and on the big data as primary sources. In this regard we present some new possibilities of analyses over the demographics, land use/land cover and water supply and conservation based on a study over a Romanian region of development (Bucharest-Ilfov). As urban development usually outgrows the existing water supply systems, the resolution consists in drilling new and deeper wells, building new water distribution pipelines, building longer aqueducts and larger reservoirs, or finding new sources and constructing completely new water supply systems, water supplies may evolve this way from a result into a cause and driver of urban growth. The evolution trends of the studied area was estimated based on the open satellite time-series imagery and remote sensing techniques by land use/land cover extraction and the identification of the changes in urbanization. The survey is mainly focused on the expansion of the water network in terms of areal, total length and number of connections correlated with the amount of water produced, consumed and lost within a supply zone. Some urban human activities including the industrial ones alter water resource by pollution, over pumping of groundwater, construction of dams and reservoirs. In areas of rapid growth the worse problems came from the inadequate amount of potable water, the continuous deterioration of water quality and the slow progress in the water resources management and supply. The effects of urban dynamics over the water use and sustainability deserves an increasing study over the recent history in order to provide for an optimal management of the interrelationships between them.

Understanding bicycling in cities using system dynamics modelling.

PubMed

Macmillan, Alexandra; Woodcock, James

2017-12-01

Increasing urban bicycling has established net benefits for human and environmental health. Questions remain about which policies are needed and in what order, to achieve an increase in cycling while avoiding negative consequences. Novel ways of considering cycling policy are needed, bringing together expertise across policy, community and research to develop a shared understanding of the dynamically complex cycling system. In this paper we use a collaborative learning process to develop a dynamic causal model of urban cycling to develop consensus about the nature and order of policies needed in different cycling contexts to optimise outcomes. We used participatory system dynamics modelling to develop causal loop diagrams (CLDs) of cycling in three contrasting contexts: Auckland, London and Nijmegen. We combined qualitative interviews and workshops to develop the CLDs. We used the three CLDs to compare and contrast influences on cycling at different points on a "cycling trajectory" and drew out policy insights. The three CLDs consisted of feedback loops dynamically influencing cycling, with significant overlap between the three diagrams. Common reinforcing patterns emerged: growing numbers of people cycling lifts political will to improve the environment; cycling safety in numbers drives further growth; and more cycling can lead to normalisation across the population. By contrast, limits to growth varied as cycling increases. In Auckland and London, real and perceived danger was considered the main limit, with added barriers to normalisation in London. Cycling congestion and "market saturation" were important in the Netherlands. A generalisable, dynamic causal theory for urban cycling enables a more ordered set of policy recommendations for different cities on a cycling trajectory. Participation meant the collective knowledge of cycling stakeholders was represented and triangulated with research evidence. Extending this research to further cities, especially in low-middle income countries, would enhance generalizability of the CLDs.

Modelling drivers and distribution of lead and zinc concentrations in soils of an urban catchment (Sydney estuary, Australia).

PubMed

Johnson, L E; Bishop, T F A; Birch, G F

2017-11-15

The human population is increasing globally and land use is changing to accommodate for this growth. Soils within urban areas require closer attention as the higher population density increases the chance of human exposure to urban contaminants. One such example of an urban area undergoing an increase in population density is Sydney, Australia. The city also possesses a notable history of intense industrial activity. By integrating multiple soil surveys and covariates into a linear mixed model, it was possible to determine the main drivers and map the distribution of lead and zinc concentrations within the Sydney estuary catchment. The main drivers as derived from the model included elevation, distance to main roads, main road type, soil landscape, population density (lead only) and land use (zinc only). Lead concentrations predicted using the model exceeded the established guideline value of 300mgkg -1 over a large portion of the study area with concentrations exceeding 1000mgkg -1 in the south of the catchment. Predicted zinc did not exceed the established guideline value of 7400mgkg -1 ; however concentrations were higher to the south and west of the study area. Unlike many other studies we considered the prediction uncertainty when assessing the contamination risk. Although the predictions indicate contamination over a large area, the broadness of the prediction intervals suggests that in many of these areas we cannot be sure that the site is contaminated. More samples are required to determine the contaminant distribution with greater precision, especially in residential areas where contamination was highest. Managing sources and addressing areas of elevated lead and zinc concentrations in urban areas has the potential to reduce the impact of past human activities and improve the urban environment of the future. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.