Regional assessment of North America: Urbanization trends, biodiversity patterns, and ecosystem services

USGS Publications Warehouse

McPhearson, Timon; Auch, Roger F.; Alberti, Marina

2013-01-01

North America contains some of the most urbanized landscapes in the world. In the United States (U.S.) and Canada, approximately 80 % of the population is urban, with Mexico slightly less (Kaiser Family Foundation 2013). Population growth combined with economic growth has fueled recent urban land expansion in North America. Between 1970 and 2000, urban land area expanded at a rate of 3.31 % (Seto et al. 2011) creating unique challenges for conserving biodiversity and maintaining regional and local ecosystem services.

[Trends and characteristics of urbanization in the Third World, the day before yesterday to the day after tomorrow (1900-2025)].

PubMed

Bairoch, P

1983-01-01

This article reviews the history of Third World urbanization, examines the evolution of the urban population from 1970-80 based on the 1st results of the 1980 round of censuses, and examines the prospects for urbanization through the end of the century and the year 2025. From 1910 to World War II the urban population in all Third World countries grew more rapidly than the total population. Both rates of growth were moderate compared to subsequent rates. Total Third World population grew by about .9%/year while the urban population grew at 2.2%/year. From 1950-80 total population grew at 2.2% and the urban population by 4.6%. The urban growth took place in the absence of economic developments capable of explaining or justifying it. Urban growth accounted in large part for the extraordinary increase in cereal importation to the Third World. In 1980 it was estimated that 26.5% of the population if Africa, 63.1% in Latin America, and 25.4% in Asian countries excluding China were urban. A characteristic of third World urbanization is the strong concentration of population in large cities; 43% of the urban population currently lives in cities with population of over 500,000. In Third World market countries, total population growth from 1970-80 is provisionally estimated at 2.5-2.6%/year, while according to UN estimates urban population growth amounted to 4.2%/year and other estimates place population growth amounted to 4.2%/year and other estimates place it at 4.4%/year. The growth of the urban population in China from 1970-80 was estimated at 3.3%/year by the UN. During the 75 years from 1950-2025, the Third World urban population is expected to multiply by a factor of 16, from less than 200 million to over 3 billion. The urban population in 2025 projected by the UN amounts to 837 million in Africa, 724 million in Latin America, and 1.6 billion in Asian market countries, but there is some suggestion that the projection errs on the low side. Increases in food production on the order of 1.9%/year will be required through 2025 to feed the new urban population at the current level. Around the year 2000, cities of 1 million or more will contain about 46% of the urban population and 21% of the total population. The largest Third World cities will continue to grow despite their poor living conditions and lack of economic justification, and the low incomes of the inhabitants will increase the difficulty of improving living standards. Predictions as far ahead as 2025 are hazardous, but it is likely that the rate of growth of the largest cities will have abated somewhat.

The Global Pattern of Urbanization and Economic Growth: Evidence from the Last Three Decades

PubMed Central

Chen, Mingxing; Zhang, Hua; Liu, Weidong; Zhang, Wenzhong

2014-01-01

The relationship between urbanization and economic growth has been perplexing. In this paper, we identify the pattern of global change and the correlation of urbanization and economic growth, using cross-sectional, panel estimation and geographic information systems (GIS) methods. The analysis has been carried out on a global geographical scale, while the timescale of the study spans the last 30 years. The data shows that urbanization levels have changed substantially during these three decades. Empirical findings from cross-sectional data and panel data support the general notion of close links between urbanization levels and GDP per capita. However, we also present significant evidence that there is no correlation between urbanization speed and economic growth rate at the global level. Hence, we conclude that a given country cannot obtain the expected economic benefits from accelerated urbanization, especially if it takes the form of government-led urbanization. In addition, only when all facets are taken into consideration can we fully assess the urbanization process. PMID:25099392

The global pattern of urbanization and economic growth: evidence from the last three decades.

PubMed

Chen, Mingxing; Zhang, Hua; Liu, Weidong; Zhang, Wenzhong

2014-01-01

The relationship between urbanization and economic growth has been perplexing. In this paper, we identify the pattern of global change and the correlation of urbanization and economic growth, using cross-sectional, panel estimation and geographic information systems (GIS) methods. The analysis has been carried out on a global geographical scale, while the timescale of the study spans the last 30 years. The data shows that urbanization levels have changed substantially during these three decades. Empirical findings from cross-sectional data and panel data support the general notion of close links between urbanization levels and GDP per capita. However, we also present significant evidence that there is no correlation between urbanization speed and economic growth rate at the global level. Hence, we conclude that a given country cannot obtain the expected economic benefits from accelerated urbanization, especially if it takes the form of government-led urbanization. In addition, only when all facets are taken into consideration can we fully assess the urbanization process.

Urbanization and the wealth of nations.

PubMed

Bloom, David E; Canning, David; Fink, Günther

2008-02-08

The proportion of a country's population living in urban areas is highly correlated with its level of income. Urban areas offer economies of scale and richer market structures, and there is strong evidence that workers in urban areas are individually more productive, and earn more, than rural workers. However, rapid urbanization is also associated with crowding, environmental degradation, and other impediments to productivity. Overall, we find no evidence that the level of urbanization affects the rate of economic growth. Our findings weaken the rationale for either encouraging or discouraging urbanization as part of a strategy for economic growth.

Urban growth in Korea, 1970-1980: an application of the human ecological perspective.

PubMed

Ko, S H

1994-07-01

This study supports the ecological perspective proposed by Duncan (population, environment, organization, and technology) explaining urban population growth. Data were obtained from the 1970 and 1980 Korean Population Census and Korean Municipal Yearbook on cities with a minimum size of 20,000-50,000 people (108 cities and towns). Urban growth is most strongly influenced by indigenous labor surplus and the population potential of the city to be in contact with another city. Nine multiple regression variables explained just under 66% of the variance in urban growth. Net migration was influential among those aged 15-24 years. The extent of differentiation of industry affected net migration only among those aged 15-24 years and those aged 35-44 years. Population redistribution was more affected directly by changes in industrial organization, and migration was affected indirectly by environmental and technological effects on organization. Urban growth through migration of older age groups was affected by government expenditure on public works. Urban growth was not much affected by transportation/communication concentration, manufacturing concentration, urban labor surplus, population size, and site. Urban growth was viewed as the interaction between the unemployment rate and the urban wage, following Todaro's equilibrium models. In Korea, larger cities only grew faster during the 1960s. By the 1970s, upper middle-sized cities grew faster. Location was not a significant factor in explaining urban growth, but growth was rapid along a corridor within 100 km from Seoul and 50 km from Pusan, the second largest city in Korea. Caution was urged in interpreting Korea's ecological urban growth patterns as indicative of developing countries.

Remote sensing based approach for monitoring urban growth in Mexico city, Mexico: A case study

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Obade, Vincent

The world is experiencing a rapid rate of urban expansion, largely contributed by the population growth. Other factors supporting urban growth include the improved efficiency in the transportation sector and increasing dependence on cars as a means of transport. The problems attributed to the urban growth include: depletion of energy resources, water and air pollution; loss of landscapes and wildlife, loss of agricultural land, inadequate social security and lack of employment or underemployment. Aerial photography is one of the popular techniques for analyzing, planning and minimizing urbanization related problems. However, with the advances in space technology, satellite remote sensing is increasingly being utilized in the analysis and planning of the urban environment. This article outlines the strengths and limitations of potential remote sensing techniques for monitoring urban growth. The selected methods include: Principal component analysis, Maximum likelihood classification and "decision tree". The results indicate that the "classification tree" approach is the most promising for monitoring urban change, given the improved accuracy and smooth transition between the various land cover classes

Effect of urbanization on population structure in U.A.R.

PubMed

Husein, H M; Sarhan, A E

1970-06-01

Census data from Egypt in 1927, 1937, 1947, and 1960 indicate slow urbanization through 1937 and more rapid urbanization thereafter. There is a higher proportion of working age (15-44) people in urban areas and a higher proportion of males. Both fertility and mortality rates are higher in rural than in urban areas, but the rate of overall population growth is greater in urban areas. Figures from 4 recently industrialized urban areas (El-Mahalla, Kafr el-Dawar, Helwan, and Aswan) bear out the conclusions drawn from the general census figures.

"A minimum of urbanism and a maximum of ruralism": the Cuban experience.

PubMed

Gugler, J

1980-01-01

The case of Cuba provides social scientists with reasonably good information on urbanization policies and their implementation in 1 developing country committed to socialism. The demographic context is considered, and Cuban efforts to eliminate the rural-urban contradiction and to redefine the role of Havana are described. The impact of these policies is analyzed in terms of available data on urbanization patterns since January 1959 when the revolutionaries marched into Havana. Prerevolutionary urbanization trends are considered. Fertility in Cuba has declined simultaneously with mortality and even more rapidly. Projections assume a 1.85% annual growth rate, resulting in a population of nearly 15 million by the year 2000. Any estimate regarding the future trend in population growth must depend on prognosis of general living conditions and of specific government policies regarding contraception, abortion, female labor force participation, and child care facilities. If population growth in Cuba has been substantial, but less dramatic than that of many other developing countries, urban growth presents a similar picture. Cuba's highest rate of growth of the population living in urban centers with a population over 20,000, in any intercensal period during the 20th century, was 4.1%/year for 1943-1953. It dropped to 3.0% in the 1953-1970 period. Government policies achieved a measure of success in stemming the tide of rural-urban migration, but the aims of the revolutionary leadership went further. The objective was for urban dwellers to be involved in agriculture, and the living standards of the rural population were to be raised to approximate those of city dwellers. The goal of "urbanizing" the countryside found expression in a program designed to construct new small towns which could more easily be provided with services. A slowdown in the growth of Havana, and the concomitant weakening of its dominant position, was intended by the revolutionary leadership. Offical policies have been enunciated that connect the reduction in the dominance of Havana with the slowdown in urban growth and the urbanization of the countryside. Evidence is presented which suggests achievements along all of these dimensions, but by 1970 they were, as yet, quite limited.

Mapping and analyzing urban growth in West Africa

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Adhikari, P.; de Beurs, K. M.

2014-12-01

Africa has experienced the highest urban growth (~3.5% per year) in the developing world. West Africa in particular has seen significant urban growth mainly driven by the high natural population growth rate and the increasing percentage of population moving to urban areas. Urban growth in West Africa is expected to continue in decades to come. This study uses Landsat data at five different time steps (1970, 1980, 1990, 2000, and 2010) to map four cities from four different eco-regions of West Africa since the early 1970s. The selected four cities, Kumasi in Ghana, Abuja in Nigeria, Tahoua in Niger and Ouagadoughou in Burkina Faso, are some of the fastest growing cities in the region. We selected the cities in the following ecoregions: Eastern Guinean Forest, Guinean Forest-Savanna Mosaic, Sahelian Acacia Savanna and West Sudanian Savanna. We hypothesize that urban growth in West Africa is different compared to the other parts of the world primarily due to the dependency of about 60 percent of active labor force on subsistence agriculture in the region. As agriculture productivity is dependent on favorable climatic conditions (i.e., good rainfall, suitable temperature), any variability in climate impends the livelihood of subsistence farmers triggering the movements of more people towards the cities. Therefore, studying urban growth based on ecoregions help to better explain the urban development in West Africa. After mapping the urban areas, this study makes a comparative analysis of the temporal and spatial pattern of the urban growths across the ecoregions in West Africa.

Growth rates of fine aerosol particles at a site near Beijing in June 2013

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhao, Chuanfeng; Li, Yanan; Zhang, Fang; Sun, Yele; Wang, Pucai

2018-02-01

Growth of fine aerosol particles is investigated during the Aerosol-CCN-Cloud Closure Experiment campaign in June 2013 at an urban site near Beijing. Analyses show a high frequency (˜ 50%) of fine aerosol particle growth events, and show that the growth rates range from 2.1 to 6.5 nm h-1 with a mean value of ˜ 5.1 nm h-1. A review of previous studies indicates that at least four mechanisms can affect the growth of fine aerosol particles: vapor condensation, intramodal coagulation, extramodal coagulation, and multi-phase chemical reaction. At the initial stage of fine aerosol particle growth, condensational growth usually plays a major role and coagulation efficiency generally increases with particle sizes. An overview of previous studies shows higher growth rates over megacity, urban and boreal forest regions than over rural and oceanic regions. This is most likely due to the higher condensational vapor, which can cause strong condensational growth of fine aerosol particles. Associated with these multiple factors of influence, there are large uncertainties for the aerosol particle growth rates, even at the same location.

[Contribution of migrations to the process of urbanization].

PubMed

Bocquier, P

1997-10-01

An average of 22% of the populations of the Sahel countries resided in urban areas in the mid-1970s, a lower level than in the rest of sub-Saharan Africa. The proportion urban has increased by about 5.5% annually over the past 2 decades. By 1993, four Sahel countries had over 30% of their populations in urban areas, and only Burkina Faso had less than 20% urban. The landlocked Sahel countries of Burkina Faso, Mali, Niger, and Chad have maintained rates of urbanization comparable to those of the coastal countries (Cape Verde, Gambia, Mauritania, and Senegal), which had more significant levels of urbanization in the past. The rate of growth of the urban population of all of sub-Saharan Africa was around 5.0% during the past 20 years. Only Dakar among the Sahel capitals has a population of over 1 million. Cities are small, and the urban environment is usually limited to the capital. In Guinea-Bissau, for example, the capital concentrates nearly 85% of the urban population. The increased rates of urbanization are due mainly to migration. In the landlocked countries covered by surveys of the Migration and Urbanization Networks in Western Africa (Burkina Faso, Mali, and Niger), the rural exodus was directed primarily to other countries. In Senegal and Mauritania, on the other hand, around two-thirds of migrations were internal. Women contribute more than men to urban growth in the Sahel. Returning migrants also show a strong preference for capital cities. Labor markets are international for men but national for women. Urban unemployment rates in the Sahel countries studied were lower for migrants than nonmigrants.

The future is urban.

PubMed

1992-05-01

Urban centers are growing due to natural increase and the movement of people from rural areas. Urban areas are the traditional centers of trade, science, and culture, but growth over a threshold results in crime, congestion, and pollution. Sustainability is threatened in modern towns that are dependent on other sources for food, fuel, or water. Housing, water, food supplies, and sanitation, communication, and transportation services are threatened in rapidly growing cities. In 1990 45/100 people lived in towns or cities. Hyper-cities have grown in number to 20, of which 14 are in developing countries. 83% of world population increase is expected to occur in cities. In 48 countries with faster population growth cities had growth rates averaging about 6.1% per year, and the urban share of total population averaged 2.8%. In 49 countries with slower population growth, urban growth rates averaged only 3.6% per year, and the urban share of total population averaged about 1.8%. Squatter settlements are endemic to urban areas that are congested and without basic services, limited housing particularly for the poor, and few job opportunities. The number of street children in urban areas has risen. This child population is subjected to low wages, overwork, auto accidents, poor health, and lack of social services. Malnutrition is a more serious issue in urban areas. In the Philippines malnutrition is 3% nationally and 9% in Metro Manila. Rural land reform in the Philippines is no longer a viable solution. In Metro Manila squatters are expected to increase in number to 4 million people by the year 2000, which would be almost 50% of total population. The squatter areas are areas of neglect, decay, and poverty. Cities are viewed as development's "blind alleys."

Spatiotemporal Effects of Climate Variability and Urban Growth on the "Valle de Toluca" Aquifer (Mexico)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mastachi-Loza, C. A.; Diaz-Delgado, C.; Esteller, M. V.; Gomez-Albores, M. A.; Becerril, R.; Ruiz-Gomez, M. D.

2013-05-01

Toluca city is located in the "Valle de Toluca" at the upper course of the Lerma river basin, is an important economic center which contributes with 1.2% of Gross National Product (GNP) since it is an industrial city, The city has grown due to the economic development sustained by the "Valle de Toluca" aquifer which provides water for human consumption, industrial facilities and crop irrigation. Recent studies have shown that in the last 50 years the annual precipitation rate in Toluca has increased 122 mm, whereas the daily minimum temperature has increased 1.1 °C and the daily maximum temperature has also increased 0.8 °C. These results show a general overview of the change in the climate conditions of the city; however they do not show the spatial distribution of the change. For this reason, the aim of this work was to evaluate the spatiotemporal change of precipitation rates and urban growth in order to determine their effects over the "Valle de Toluca" aquifer. In order to detect the urban growth, a supervised classification technique has been used taking into account Landsat TM satellite images between 1973, 1986, 2000 and 2005. A yearly spatiotemporal raster set of rainfall rates from 1980 to 2010 were obtained interpolating data from 812 climatologic stations. To evaluate the effect in annual precipitation rates and urban growth over the aquifer, we interpolate data from 38 piezometers from 1980 to 2010 to obtain a spatiotemporal raster set. The piezometric values correspond to the aquifer's upper level. The spatiotemporal raster sets were analyzed with the non-parametric Theil-Sen test to determine trends in piezometric levels and precipitation rates. Finally the urban growth, spatial-temporal trends of precipitation rates and piezometric levels were displayed in a GIS and then subjectively analyzed to figure out coincidences. An increase in annual precipitation rates (+87 mm) over Toluca's Valley during the last three decades was observed specially towards he southwest . Also, a decrease in annual precipitation rates (-51 mm) over the "Sierra de las cruces" mountains was observed (NW), these mountains are the primary aquifer recharge areas. Furthermore, areas with an increment and decrement in annual precipitation rates showed an increment (+15 m) and a decrement (-30 m) in piezometric levels respectively. For those areas in which urban land use is present and annual rainfall rates grew, the piezometric levels declined. This fact promotes a higher flood risk in the city of Toluca. These impacts can be summarized as an increased vulnerability against urban floods and a very important reduced aquifer recharge annual rate. These effects should be taken into account in the new territorial development plan.

Self-Control Themes in the Reflective Writings of At-Risk High School Students' as Indicators of Post-Prevention Behavioral and Academic Growth

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Burch, David

2017-01-01

In 2010-2011, urban high schools across New Jersey reported suspension rates that ranged between 10 and 20%. This rate translated into increased dropout rates and low graduation rates. The purpose of this study was to examine the factors that influenced suspension rates, dropout rates and graduation rates of an urban New Jersey high school. More…

Modelling spatial patterns of urban growth in Africa

PubMed Central

Linard, Catherine; Tatem, Andrew J.; Gilbert, Marius

2013-01-01

The population of Africa is predicted to double over the next 40 years, driving exceptionally high urban expansion rates that will induce significant socio-economic, environmental and health changes. In order to prepare for these changes, it is important to better understand urban growth dynamics in Africa and better predict the spatial pattern of rural-urban conversions. Previous work on urban expansion has been carried out at the city level or at the global level with a relatively coarse 5–10 km resolution. The main objective of the present paper was to develop a modelling approach at an intermediate scale in order to identify factors that influence spatial patterns of urban expansion in Africa. Boosted Regression Tree models were developed to predict the spatial pattern of rural-urban conversions in every large African city. Urban change data between circa 1990 and circa 2000 available for 20 large cities across Africa were used as training data. Results showed that the urban land in a 1 km neighbourhood and the accessibility to the city centre were the most influential variables. Results obtained were generally more accurate than results obtained using a distance-based urban expansion model and showed that the spatial pattern of small, compact and fast growing cities were easier to simulate than cities with lower population densities and a lower growth rate. The simulation method developed here will allow the production of spatially detailed urban expansion forecasts for 2020 and 2025 for Africa, data that are increasingly required by global change modellers. PMID:25152552

[State of the world population, 1986].

PubMed

1987-01-01

The majority of the world population will soon reside in urban areas. At present, over 40% of the world's people are urban, and 50% will be urban soon after the year 2000. The proportion urban in developed countries has exceeded 50% since the mid-20th century, and in developing countries this level will be reached in the 1st quarter of the next century. Developing countries in Asia and Africa have less than 30% of their population urban. While over 70% of Latin America's population is urban. Within the next 50 years, the predominantly rural character of the developing countries will disappear forever. Currently the majority of the world's urban population lives in developing countries. In 1970, 695 million urban dwellers were in developed countries vs. 666 million in developing countries, but by 1985, there were only 849 million urban dwellers in developed countries vs. 1164 million in developing countries. By the year 2025, there will be nearly 4 times as many urban dwellers in developing countries. An increasing proportion of the urban population will reside in the largest cities. Around 2025, almost 30% of the urban population in developing countries will live in cities of over 4 million. Around 2000 there will be 5 cities of 15 million or more, 3 of them in developing countries. The proportion of the 20 largest cities in developing countries will increase from 9 in 1970 to 16 in 2000. The close relationship between city size and economic development that existed until the recent past is disappearing. It is possible that the very largest cities will no longer be at the center of international political and economic networks. Many developing countries will have to develop plans for cities of sizes never imagined in the developed countries of today. High rates of population increase in the developing countries are an inseparable aspect of their urbanization. Growth of the urban population in developing countries will continue to be rapid until well into the 21st century. The world rate of urban growth will continue to be about 2.5%/year during the 1st quarter of sthe 21st century. The annual rate of urban growth is 3.5% in developing countries and is highest in Africa, especially West Africa where it reaches 6.5%/year. Despite migration to cities, the rural population in developing countries will continue to grow at a rate of about 1%/year through the end of the century. In many rural areas, population density is already very high, and continued growth will hamper efforts to reduce urban migration. In developing countries, the increase in the urban population is due more to natural increase than to migration.

Movement patterns and the medium-sized city. Tenants on the move in Gweru, Zimbabwe.

PubMed

Grant, M

1995-01-01

During 1965-79, urban growth rates accelerated and continued after Zimbabwe's independence in 1980. For 1960-80, the estimated urban growth rate was 5.6% as compared with the natural growth rate of 3.5% and urban growth rate of 5.0% to 8.1% for the period 1982-92. Gweru, Zimbabwe, had a population of 110,000 in 1990, and as the provincial capital it is an important destination for rural and interurban migrants. Between 1982 and 1990 there was a 4.9% growth rate, resulting in the municipal waiting list for housing to exceed 14,000 in mid-1990. In a large study on migration and rental shelter, 188 tenants were interviewed in high, low-medium density, and periurban areas of the city with the intent of tracing respondents and the nature of migration streams. Regarding origins and connections, only one-fifth of the migrants were born in Gweru, more than half were born in rural areas, and the rest in other urban areas. More than 90% still had rural homes. Two-thirds made rural home visits six times or less a year and one-fourth visited seven times a year to once a month. 40% of the migrants to Gweru originated in larger cities, 24% in smaller urban areas, and 36% in rural areas. 58% moved to high density areas, 34% to low-medium, and 8% to peri-urban areas. The dominant motive was the search for employment and direct transfers, thus economic factors dominated over social factors. Three groups were distinguished according to length of stay: 1) 5 years or less who lived mainly in high and low-medium density housing; 2) 6-15 years; and 3) more than 15 years who lived in low density and high density areas. Regarding the previous two migrations, two-thirds stayed at the previous place for 5 years of less. The reasons for migration were overcrowding, family, and employment. Within Gweru high mobility was typical: one-third initiated one step, 43% initiated two steps, and 27% initiated three steps. Lodgers were the most mobile since one-third were moving three times.

Regional Assessment of Urban Impacts on Landcover and Open Space Finds a Smart Urban Growth Policy Performs Little Better than Business as Usual

PubMed Central

Thorne, James H.; Santos, Maria J.; Bjorkman, Jacquelyn H.

2013-01-01

Assessment of landscape change is critical for attainment of regional sustainability goals. Urban growth assessments are needed because over half the global population now lives in cities, which impact biodiversity, ecosystem structure and ecological processes. Open space protection is needed to preserve these attributes, and provide the resources humans need. The San Francisco Bay Area, California, is challenged to accommodate a population increase of 3.07 million while maintaining the region’s ecosystems and biodiversity. Our analysis of 9275 km2 in the Bay Area links historic trends for three measures: urban growth, protected open space, and landcover types over the last 70 years to future 2050 projections of urban growth and open space. Protected open space totaled 348 km2 (3.7% of the area) in 1940, and expanded to 2221 km2 (20.2%) currently. An additional 1038 km2 of protected open space is targeted (35.1%). Urban area historically increased from 396.5 km2 to 2239 km2 (24.1% of the area). Urban growth during this time mostly occurred at the expense of agricultural landscapes (62.9%) rather than natural vegetation. Smart Growth development has been advanced as a preferred alternative in many planning circles, but we found that it conserved only marginally more open space than Business-as-usual when using an urban growth model to portray policies for future urban growth. Scenarios to 2050 suggest urban development on non-urban lands of 1091, 956, or 179 km2, under Business-as-usual, Smart Growth and Infill policy growth scenarios, respectively. The Smart Growth policy converts 88% of natural lands and agriculture used by Business-as-usual, while Infill used only 40% of those lands. Given the historic rate of urban growth, 0.25%/year, and limited space available, the Infill scenario is recommended. While the data may differ, the use of an historic and future framework to track these three variables can be easily applied to other metropolitan areas. PMID:23755204

Regional assessment of urban impacts on landcover and open space finds a smart urban growth policy performs little better than business as usual.

PubMed

Thorne, James H; Santos, Maria J; Bjorkman, Jacquelyn H

2013-01-01

Assessment of landscape change is critical for attainment of regional sustainability goals. Urban growth assessments are needed because over half the global population now lives in cities, which impact biodiversity, ecosystem structure and ecological processes. Open space protection is needed to preserve these attributes, and provide the resources humans need. The San Francisco Bay Area, California, is challenged to accommodate a population increase of 3.07 million while maintaining the region's ecosystems and biodiversity. Our analysis of 9275 km² in the Bay Area links historic trends for three measures: urban growth, protected open space, and landcover types over the last 70 years to future 2050 projections of urban growth and open space. Protected open space totaled 348 km² (3.7% of the area) in 1940, and expanded to 2221 km² (20.2%) currently. An additional 1038 km² of protected open space is targeted (35.1%). Urban area historically increased from 396.5 km² to 2239 km² (24.1% of the area). Urban growth during this time mostly occurred at the expense of agricultural landscapes (62.9%) rather than natural vegetation. Smart Growth development has been advanced as a preferred alternative in many planning circles, but we found that it conserved only marginally more open space than Business-as-usual when using an urban growth model to portray policies for future urban growth. Scenarios to 2050 suggest urban development on non-urban lands of 1091, 956, or 179 km², under Business-as-usual, Smart Growth and Infill policy growth scenarios, respectively. The Smart Growth policy converts 88% of natural lands and agriculture used by Business-as-usual, while Infill used only 40% of those lands. Given the historic rate of urban growth, 0.25%/year, and limited space available, the Infill scenario is recommended. While the data may differ, the use of an historic and future framework to track these three variables can be easily applied to other metropolitan areas.

Temporal dynamics of a subtropical urban forest in San Juan, Puerto Rico, 2001-2010

Treesearch

J. M. Tucker Lima; C. L. Staudhammer; T. J. Brandeis; F. J. Escobedo; W. Zipperer

2013-01-01

Several studies report urban tree growth and mortality rates as well as species composition, structural dynamics, and other characteristics of urban forests in mostly temperate, inland urban areas. Temporal dynamics of urban forests in subtropical and tropical forest regions are, until now, little explored and represent a new and important direction for study and...

Bayesian methods to estimate urban growth potential

USGS Publications Warehouse

Smith, Jordan W.; Smart, Lindsey S.; Dorning, Monica; Dupéy, Lauren Nicole; Méley, Andréanne; Meentemeyer, Ross K.

2017-01-01

Urban growth often influences the production of ecosystem services. The impacts of urbanization on landscapes can subsequently affect landowners’ perceptions, values and decisions regarding their land. Within land-use and land-change research, very few models of dynamic landscape-scale processes like urbanization incorporate empirically-grounded landowner decision-making processes. Very little attention has focused on the heterogeneous decision-making processes that aggregate to influence broader-scale patterns of urbanization. We examine the land-use tradeoffs faced by individual landowners in one of the United States’ most rapidly urbanizing regions − the urban area surrounding Charlotte, North Carolina. We focus on the land-use decisions of non-industrial private forest owners located across the region’s development gradient. A discrete choice experiment is used to determine the critical factors influencing individual forest owners’ intent to sell their undeveloped properties across a series of experimentally varied scenarios of urban growth. Data are analyzed using a hierarchical Bayesian approach. The estimates derived from the survey data are used to modify a spatially-explicit trend-based urban development potential model, derived from remotely-sensed imagery and observed changes in the region’s socioeconomic and infrastructural characteristics between 2000 and 2011. This modeling approach combines the theoretical underpinnings of behavioral economics with spatiotemporal data describing a region’s historical development patterns. By integrating empirical social preference data into spatially-explicit urban growth models, we begin to more realistically capture processes as well as patterns that drive the location, magnitude and rates of urban growth.

Population causes and consequences of leading chronic diseases: a comparative analysis of prevailing explanations.

PubMed

Stuckler, David

2008-06-01

The mortality numbers and rates of chronic disease are rising faster in developing than in developed countries. This article compares prevailing explanations of population chronic disease trends with theoretical and empirical models of population chronic disease epidemiology and assesses some economic consequences of the growth of chronic diseases in developing countries based on the experiences of developed countries. Four decades of male mortality rates of cardiovascular and chronic noncommunicable diseases were regressed on changes in and levels of country income per capita, market integration, foreign direct investment, urbanization rates, and population aging in fifty-six countries for which comparative data were available. Neoclassical economic growth models were used to estimate the effect of the mortality rates of chronic noncommunicable diseases on economic growth in high-income OECD countries. Processes of economic growth, market integration, foreign direct investment, and urbanization were significant determinants of long-term changes in mortality rates of heart disease and chronic noncommunicable disease, and the observed relationships with these social and economic factors were roughly three times stronger than the relationships with the population's aging. In low-income countries, higher levels of country income per capita, population urbanization, foreign direct investment, and market integration were associated with greater mortality rates of heart disease and chronic noncommunicable disease, less increased or sometimes reduced rates in middle-income countries, and decreased rates in high-income countries. Each 10 percent increase in the working-age mortality rates of chronic noncommunicable disease decreased economic growth rates by close to a half percent. Macrosocial and macroeconomic forces are major determinants of population rises in chronic disease mortality, and some prevailing demographic explanations, such as population aging, are incomplete on methodological, empirical, and policy grounds. Rising chronic disease mortality rates will significantly reduce economic growth in developing countries and further widen the health and economic gap between the developed and developing world.

Population Causes and Consequences of Leading Chronic Diseases: A Comparative Analysis of Prevailing Explanations

PubMed Central

Stuckler, David

2008-01-01

Context The mortality numbers and rates of chronic disease are rising faster in developing than in developed countries. This article compares prevailing explanations of population chronic disease trends with theoretical and empirical models of population chronic disease epidemiology and assesses some economic consequences of the growth of chronic diseases in developing countries based on the experiences of developed countries. Methods Four decades of male mortality rates of cardiovascular and chronic noncommunicable diseases were regressed on changes in and levels of country income per capita, market integration, foreign direct investment, urbanization rates, and population aging in fifty-six countries for which comparative data were available. Neoclassical economic growth models were used to estimate the effect of the mortality rates of chronic noncommunicable diseases on economic growth in high-income OECD countries. Findings Processes of economic growth, market integration, foreign direct investment, and urbanization were significant determinants of long-term changes in mortality rates of heart disease and chronic noncommunicable disease, and the observed relationships with these social and economic factors were roughly three times stronger than the relationships with the population's aging. In low-income countries, higher levels of country income per capita, population urbanization, foreign direct investment, and market integration were associated with greater mortality rates of heart disease and chronic noncommunicable disease, less increased or sometimes reduced rates in middle-income countries, and decreased rates in high-income countries. Each 10 percent increase in the working-age mortality rates of chronic noncommunicable disease decreased economic growth rates by close to a half percent. Conclusions Macrosocial and macroeconomic forces are major determinants of population rises in chronic disease mortality, and some prevailing demographic explanations, such as population aging, are incomplete on methodological, empirical, and policy grounds. Rising chronic disease mortality rates will significantly reduce economic growth in developing countries and further widen the health and economic gap between the developed and developing world. PMID:18522614

The Urban Household in the 1980s: A Demographic and Economic Perspective. Revised.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Muller, Thomas; And Others

This report focuses on demographic and economic changes affecting urban households during the 1980s. Statistics regarding birth, fertility and mortality rates, marriage and divorce, and household formation are presented. Metropolitan and interregional trends in mobility are examined by racial, income and age groups. Growth rates of the national…

Six decades of urban growth using remote sensing and GIS in the city of Bandar Abbas, Iran

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dadras, Mohsen; Zulhaidi Mohd Shafri, Helmi; Ahmad, Noordin; Pradhan, Biswajeet; Safarpour, Sahabeh

2014-06-01

Bandar Abbas is the capital city of Hormozgan province, is the south of Iran. The city has witnessed rapid growth in the last three decades, mostly because of its economic, commercial and social attractions. However, forms and operations of urban sprawl may vary in important manners according to determine geographical and historical characteristics, and these difference need to be reviewed with creation geodatabase of spatial and attribute data during past periods until now of urban formation and expansion. We implemented this research to understand Bandar Abbas city growth dynamic during last six decades using aerial photo, Remote Sensing (RS) data and Geographical Information System (GIS), to investigate its sprawl for the during six decades and to prepare a basis for urban planning and management. We calibrated it with geospatial data derived from a time series of aerial photos and satellite images. Treated remote sensing data covering the six decades were used to calculate land use/cover and urban growth. The application of classification techniques to the remote sensing data enabled the extraction of eight main types of land use: agricultural, barren, coastal, hole, river, rocky hill, urban, and built-up. Growth was calculated through Shannon's entropy model. The urbanized area increased from 403.77 ha to 4959.59 ha from 1956 to 2012, a rate almost five times that of the population growth observed in the same period. Such findings make the case of Bandar Abbas important for several reasons. First, Bandar Abbas has undergone a rapid increase in urban sprawl according to urban growth indicators. Second, the urban sprawl quickly grew from medium-sized to large a process considered inappropriate according to physical and structural limitations on urban growth. Lastly, the excessive extension of the built-up boundary in the city resulted in the loss of coastal land and open space, two main sources of tourist attraction and economic sustainable development.

Student Enrollment Growth

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

McLeod, Marshall W.

1971-01-01

A national study of enrollment growth rates in community colleges, conducted by the Arkansas State Department of Higher Education, found it most commonly exceeded expectations, especially in urban areas. (NF)

Spatio-Temporal Dynamics of Urbanization in China: Historical and Future

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhou, Y.; Smith, S.; Zhao, K.; Imhoff, M. L.; Thomson, A. M.; Eom, J.; Yu, S.; Bond-Lamberty, B. P.

2014-12-01

One way humans affect the Earth is by clearing lands and building cities, a process intricately coupled with population growth. The transformation of terrestrial environments by urbanization has been accelerating during the past 30 years. China, for instance, has experienced urbanization at an unprecedented rate, with the urban population increasing from ~20% to 50% between 1980 and 2010. This urban expansion has resulted in a range of environmental and socioeconomic consequences, such as released carbon, reduced habitats, and threatened biodiversity. Improved information on historical and future urbanization is essential to understand these environmental effects, and to promote a sustainable urbanization in China. Supported by urban maps derived from nightlights remote sensing data and socio-economic drivers, we developed an integrated modeling framework to project future urban expansion in China by integrating a top-down macro-scale statistical model with a bottom-up urban growth model (three examples in Figure 1). With the models calibrated and validated using historical data, we explored annual urban growth at the province level and urban sprawl at the grid level (1-km) over the next two decades under a number of socio-economic scenarios. The results of this study will be of great value with practical implications for a sustainable urbanization (e.g. mitigation of urban heat island).

Endless urban growth? On the mismatch of population, household and urban land area growth and its effects on the urban debate.

PubMed

Haase, Dagmar; Kabisch, Nadja; Haase, Annegret

2013-01-01

In European cities, the rate of population growth has declined significantly, while the number of households has increased. This increase in the number of households is associated with an increase in space for housing. To date, the effects of both a declining population and decreasing household numbers remain unclear. In this paper, we analyse the relationship between population and household number development in 188 European cities from 1990-2000 and 2000-2006 to the growth of urban land area and per capita living space. Our results support a trend toward decreasing population with simultaneously increasing household number. However, we also found cites facing both a declining population and a decreasing household number. Nevertheless, the urban land area of these "double-declining" cities has continued to spread because the increasing per capita living space counteracts a reduction in land consumption. We conclude that neither a decline in population nor in household number "automatically" solve the global problem of land consumption.

Projected Regional Climate in 2025 Due to Urban Growth

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Shepherd, J. Marshall; Manyin, Michael; Messen, Dmitry

2005-01-01

By 2025, 60 to 80 percent of the world s population will live in urban environments. Additionally, the following facts published by the United Nations further illustrates how cities will evolve in the future. Urban areas in the developing world are growing very rapidly. The urban growth rate will continue to be particularly rapid in the urban areas of less developed regions, averaging 2.4 per cent per year during 2000-2030, consistent with a doubling time of 29 years. The urbanization process will continue worldwide. The concentration of population in cities is expected to continue so that, by 2030, 84 percent of the inhabitants of more developed countries will be urban dwellers. Urbanization impacts the whole hierarchy of human settlements. In 2000,24.8 per cent of the world population lived in urban settlements with fewer than 500,000 inhabitants and by 2015 that proportion will likely rise to 27.1 per cent.

Projected impact of urbanization on cardiovascular disease in China.

PubMed

Chan, Faye; Adamo, Susana; Coxson, Pamela; Goldman, Lee; Gu, Dongfeng; Zhao, Dong; Chen, Chung-Shiuan; He, Jiang; Mara, Valentina; Moran, Andrew

2012-10-01

The Coronary Heart Disease (CHD) Policy Model-China, a national scale cardiovascular disease computer simulation model, was used to project future impact of urbanization. Populations and cardiovascular disease incidence rates were stratified into four submodels: North-Urban, South-Urban, North-Rural, and South-Rural. 2010 was the base year, and high and low urbanization rate scenarios were used to project 2030 populations. Rural-to-urban migration, population growth, and aging were projected to more than double cardiovascular disease events in urban areas and increase events by 27.0-45.6% in rural areas. Urbanization is estimated to raise age-standardized coronary heart disease incidence by 73-81 per 100,000 and stroke incidence only slightly. Rural-to-urban migration will likely be a major demographic driver of the cardiovascular disease epidemic in China.

Particle growth in an isoprene-rich forest: Influences of urban, wildfire, and biogenic air masses

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gunsch, Matthew J.; Schmidt, Stephanie A.; Gardner, Daniel J.; Bondy, Amy L.; May, Nathaniel W.; Bertman, Steven B.; Pratt, Kerri A.; Ault, Andrew P.

2018-04-01

Growth of freshly nucleated particles is an important source of cloud condensation nuclei (CCN) and has been studied within a variety of environments around the world. However, there remains uncertainty regarding the sources of the precursor gases leading to particle growth, particularly in isoprene-rich forests. In this study, particle growth events were observed from the 14 total events (31% of days) during summer measurements (June 24 - August 2, 2014) at the Program for Research on Oxidants PHotochemistry, Emissions, and Transport (PROPHET) tower within the forested University of Michigan Biological Station located in northern Michigan. Growth events were observed within long-range transported air masses from urban areas, air masses impacted by wildfires, as well as stagnant, forested/regional air masses. Growth events observed during urban-influenced air masses were prevalent, with presumably high oxidant levels, and began midday during periods of high solar radiation. This suggests that increased oxidation of biogenic volatile organic compounds (BVOCs) likely contributed to the highest observed particle growth in this study (8 ± 2 nm h-1). Growth events during wildfire-influenced air masses were observed primarily at night and had slower growth rates (3 ± 1 nm h-1). These events were likely influenced by increased SO2, O3, and NO2 transported within the smoke plumes, suggesting a role of NO3 oxidation in the production of semi-volatile compounds. Forested/regional air mass growth events likely occurred due to the oxidation of regionally emitted BVOCs, including isoprene, monoterpenes, and sesquiterpenes, which facilitated multiday growth events also with slower rates (3 ± 2 nm h-1). Intense sulfur, carbon, and oxygen signals in individual particles down to 20 nm, analyzed by transmission electron microscopy with energy dispersive X-ray spectroscopy (TEM-EDX), suggest that H2SO4 and secondary organic aerosol contributed to particle growth. Overall, aerosol growth was frequently observed in a range of air masses (urban, wildfire, forested) and oxidant conditions (day vs. night), with rates ranging from 0.8 to 10.2 nm h-1.

The Increasing Influence of Urban Environments on US Forest Management

Treesearch

David J. Nowak; Jeffrey T. Walton; John F. Dwyer; Latif G. Kaya; Soojeong Myeong; Soojeong Myeong

2005-01-01

The expansion of urban land promises to have an increasingly significant influence on US forest management in the coming decades. Percent of the coterminous United States classified as urban increased from 2.5% in 1990 to 3.1% in 2000, an area about the size of Vermont and New Hampshire combined. Patterns of urban expansion reveal that increased growth rates are likely...

Global forecasts of urban expansion to 2030 and direct impacts on biodiversity and carbon pools.

PubMed

Seto, Karen C; Güneralp, Burak; Hutyra, Lucy R

2012-10-02

Urban land-cover change threatens biodiversity and affects ecosystem productivity through loss of habitat, biomass, and carbon storage. However, despite projections that world urban populations will increase to nearly 5 billion by 2030, little is known about future locations, magnitudes, and rates of urban expansion. Here we develop spatially explicit probabilistic forecasts of global urban land-cover change and explore the direct impacts on biodiversity hotspots and tropical carbon biomass. If current trends in population density continue and all areas with high probabilities of urban expansion undergo change, then by 2030, urban land cover will increase by 1.2 million km(2), nearly tripling the global urban land area circa 2000. This increase would result in considerable loss of habitats in key biodiversity hotspots, with the highest rates of forecasted urban growth to take place in regions that were relatively undisturbed by urban development in 2000: the Eastern Afromontane, the Guinean Forests of West Africa, and the Western Ghats and Sri Lanka hotspots. Within the pan-tropics, loss in vegetation biomass from areas with high probability of urban expansion is estimated to be 1.38 PgC (0.05 PgC yr(-1)), equal to ∼5% of emissions from tropical deforestation and land-use change. Although urbanization is often considered a local issue, the aggregate global impacts of projected urban expansion will require significant policy changes to affect future growth trajectories to minimize global biodiversity and vegetation carbon losses.

Global forecasts of urban expansion to 2030 and direct impacts on biodiversity and carbon pools

PubMed Central

Seto, Karen C.; Güneralp, Burak; Hutyra, Lucy R.

2012-01-01

Urban land-cover change threatens biodiversity and affects ecosystem productivity through loss of habitat, biomass, and carbon storage. However, despite projections that world urban populations will increase to nearly 5 billion by 2030, little is known about future locations, magnitudes, and rates of urban expansion. Here we develop spatially explicit probabilistic forecasts of global urban land-cover change and explore the direct impacts on biodiversity hotspots and tropical carbon biomass. If current trends in population density continue and all areas with high probabilities of urban expansion undergo change, then by 2030, urban land cover will increase by 1.2 million km2, nearly tripling the global urban land area circa 2000. This increase would result in considerable loss of habitats in key biodiversity hotspots, with the highest rates of forecasted urban growth to take place in regions that were relatively undisturbed by urban development in 2000: the Eastern Afromontane, the Guinean Forests of West Africa, and the Western Ghats and Sri Lanka hotspots. Within the pan-tropics, loss in vegetation biomass from areas with high probability of urban expansion is estimated to be 1.38 PgC (0.05 PgC yr−1), equal to ∼5% of emissions from tropical deforestation and land-use change. Although urbanization is often considered a local issue, the aggregate global impacts of projected urban expansion will require significant policy changes to affect future growth trajectories to minimize global biodiversity and vegetation carbon losses. PMID:22988086

Relationship between suicide rate and economic growth and stock market in the People's Republic of China: 2004-2013.

PubMed

Yin, Honglei; Xu, Lin; Shao, Yechang; Li, Liping; Wan, Chengsong

2016-01-01

The objective of this study was to estimate the features of suicide rate and its association with economic development and stock market during the past decade in the People's Republic of China. Official data were gathered and analyzed in the People's Republic of China during the period 2004-2013. Nationwide suicide rate was stratified by four year age-groups, sex, urban/rural areas, and regions (East, Central, and West). Annual economic indexes including gross domestic product (GDP) per capita and rural and urban income per capita were all adjusted for inflation. Variation coefficient of market index (VCMI) was also included as an economic index to measure the fluctuation of the stock market. Negative binomial regression was performed to examine the time trend of region-level suicide rates and effects of sex, age, urban/rural area, region, and economic index on the suicide rates. Suicide rates of each age-group, sex, urban/rural area, and region were generally decreased from 2004 to 2013, while annual GDP per capita and rural and urban income per capita were generally increased by year. VCMI fluctuated largely, which peaked around 2009 and decreased after that time. Negative binomial regression showed that the decreased suicide rate in East and Central rural areas was the main cause of the decrease in suicide rate in the People's Republic of China. Suicide rate in the People's Republic of China for the study period increased with age and was higher in rural than in urban area, higher in males than in females, and the highest in the Central region. When GDP per capita increased by 2,787 RMB, the suicide rate decreased by 0.498 times. VCMI showed no significant relationship with suicide rate in the negative binomial regression. Suicide rate decreased in 2004-2013; varied among different age-groups, sex, urban/rural areas, and regions; and was negatively associated with the economic growth in the People's Republic of China. Stock market showed no relationship with suicide rate, but this finding needs to be verified in a future study.

Relationship between suicide rate and economic growth and stock market in the People’s Republic of China: 2004–2013

PubMed Central

Yin, Honglei; Xu, Lin; Shao, Yechang; Li, Liping; Wan, Chengsong

2016-01-01

Objectives The objective of this study was to estimate the features of suicide rate and its association with economic development and stock market during the past decade in the People’s Republic of China. Methods Official data were gathered and analyzed in the People’s Republic of China during the period 2004–2013. Nationwide suicide rate was stratified by four year age-groups, sex, urban/rural areas, and regions (East, Central, and West). Annual economic indexes including gross domestic product (GDP) per capita and rural and urban income per capita were all adjusted for inflation. Variation coefficient of market index (VCMI) was also included as an economic index to measure the fluctuation of the stock market. Negative binomial regression was performed to examine the time trend of region-level suicide rates and effects of sex, age, urban/rural area, region, and economic index on the suicide rates. Results Suicide rates of each age-group, sex, urban/rural area, and region were generally decreased from 2004 to 2013, while annual GDP per capita and rural and urban income per capita were generally increased by year. VCMI fluctuated largely, which peaked around 2009 and decreased after that time. Negative binomial regression showed that the decreased suicide rate in East and Central rural areas was the main cause of the decrease in suicide rate in the People’s Republic of China. Suicide rate in the People’s Republic of China for the study period increased with age and was higher in rural than in urban area, higher in males than in females, and the highest in the Central region. When GDP per capita increased by 2,787 RMB, the suicide rate decreased by 0.498 times. VCMI showed no significant relationship with suicide rate in the negative binomial regression. Conclusion Suicide rate decreased in 2004–2013; varied among different age-groups, sex, urban/rural areas, and regions; and was negatively associated with the economic growth in the People’s Republic of China. Stock market showed no relationship with suicide rate, but this finding needs to be verified in a future study. PMID:27994468

Understanding Peri-Urban Maize Production through an Examination of Household Livelihoods in the Toluca Metropolitan Area, Mexico

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Lerner, Amy M.; Eakin, Hallie; Sweeney, Stuart

2013-01-01

The rates of urban growth globally continue to rise, especially in small and intermediary cities and peri-urban areas of the developing world. Communities in these settings share characteristics with rural areas, in terms of continued connections with agriculture, yet with an increasing reliance of non-agricultural employment which poses…

Land use/cover change detection and urban sprawl analysis in Bandar Abbas city, Iran.

PubMed

Dadras, Mohsen; Shafri, Helmi Zulhaidi Mohd; Ahmad, Noordin; Pradhan, Biswajeet; Safarpour, Sahabeh

2014-01-01

The process of land use change and urban sprawl has been considered as a prominent characteristic of urban development. This study aims to investigate urban growth process in Bandar Abbas city, Iran, focusing on urban sprawl and land use change during 1956-2012. To calculate urban sprawl and land use changes, aerial photos and satellite images are utilized in different time spans. The results demonstrate that urban region area has changed from 403.77 to 4959.59 hectares between 1956 and 2012. Moreover, the population has increased more than 30 times in last six decades. The major part of population growth is related to migration from other parts the country to Bandar Abbas city. Considering the speed of urban sprawl growth rate, the scale and the role of the city have changed from medium and regional to large scale and transregional. Due to natural and structural limitations, more than 80% of barren lands, stone cliffs, beach zone, and agricultural lands are occupied by built-up areas. Our results revealed that the irregular expansion of Bandar Abbas city must be controlled so that sustainable development could be achieved.

Land Use/Cover Change Detection and Urban Sprawl Analysis in Bandar Abbas City, Iran

PubMed Central

Mohd Shafri, Helmi Zulhaidi; Ahmad, Noordin; Pradhan, Biswajeet; Safarpour, Sahabeh

2014-01-01

The process of land use change and urban sprawl has been considered as a prominent characteristic of urban development. This study aims to investigate urban growth process in Bandar Abbas city, Iran, focusing on urban sprawl and land use change during 1956–2012. To calculate urban sprawl and land use changes, aerial photos and satellite images are utilized in different time spans. The results demonstrate that urban region area has changed from 403.77 to 4959.59 hectares between 1956 and 2012. Moreover, the population has increased more than 30 times in last six decades. The major part of population growth is related to migration from other parts the country to Bandar Abbas city. Considering the speed of urban sprawl growth rate, the scale and the role of the city have changed from medium and regional to large scale and transregional. Due to natural and structural limitations, more than 80% of barren lands, stone cliffs, beach zone, and agricultural lands are occupied by built-up areas. Our results revealed that the irregular expansion of Bandar Abbas city must be controlled so that sustainable development could be achieved. PMID:25276858

Transpiration and root development of urban trees in structural soil stormwater reservoirs.

PubMed

Bartens, Julia; Day, Susan D; Harris, J Roger; Wynn, Theresa M; Dove, Joseph E

2009-10-01

Stormwater management that relies on ecosystem processes, such as tree canopy interception and rhizosphere biology, can be difficult to achieve in built environments because urban land is costly and urban soil inhospitable to vegetation. Yet such systems offer a potentially valuable tool for achieving both sustainable urban forests and stormwater management. We evaluated tree water uptake and root distribution in a novel stormwater mitigation facility that integrates trees directly into detention reservoirs under pavement. The system relies on structural soils: highly porous engineered mixes designed to support tree root growth and pavement. To evaluate tree performance under the peculiar conditions of such a stormwater detention reservoir (i.e., periodically inundated), we grew green ash (Fraxinus pennsylvanica Marsh.) and swamp white oak (Quercus bicolor Willd.) in either CUSoil or a Carolina Stalite-based mix subjected to three simulated below-system infiltration rates for two growing seasons. Infiltration rate affected both transpiration and rooting depth. In a factorial experiment with ash, rooting depth always increased with infiltration rate for Stalite, but this relation was less consistent for CUSoil. Slow-drainage rates reduced transpiration and restricted rooting depth for both species and soils, and trunk growth was restricted for oak, which grew the most in moderate infiltration. Transpiration rates under slow infiltration were 55% (oak) and 70% (ash) of the most rapidly transpiring treatment (moderate for oak and rapid for ash). We conclude this system is feasible and provides another tool to address runoff that integrates the function of urban green spaces with other urban needs.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Sultan, M.; Fiske, M.; Stein, T.

Comparisons of satellite images of the Nile Delta, acquired in 1972, 1984 and 1990, indicate that urban growth is endangering Egypt's agricultural productivity. Urban areas occupied a minimum of 3.6%, 4.7% and 5.7% of the Delta in 1972, 1984 and 1990, respectively, an increase of 58% in 18 years. Approximately half of this increase occurred between 1984 and 1990. If this trend continues, Egypt could lose 12% of its total agricultural area to urbanization by 2010. Despite the fact that growth is pronounced around the cities, it is the growth around the thousands of small villages that poses the largestmore » threat to the agricultural productivity of the Nile Delta. The cumulative growth rate for the cities and large villages between 1972 and 1990 is 37%, and that for the small villages is 77% for the same time period.« less

NASA Experimental Program to Stimulate Competitive Research: South Carolina

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Sutton, Michael A.

2004-01-01

The use of an appropriate relationship model is critical for reliable prediction of future urban growth. Identification of proper variables and mathematic functions and determination of the weights or coefficients are the key tasks for building such a model. Although the conventional logistic regression model is appropriate for handing land use problems, it appears insufficient to address the issue of interdependency of the predictor variables. This study used an alternative approach to simulation and modeling urban growth using artificial neural networks. It developed an operational neural network model trained using a robust backpropagation method. The model was applied in the Myrtle Beach region of South Carolina, and tested with both global datasets and areal datasets to examine the strength of both regional models and areal models. The results indicate that the neural network model not only has many theoretic advantages over other conventional mathematic models in representing the complex urban systems, but also is practically superior to the logistic model in its capability to predict urban growth with better - accuracy and less variation. The neural network model is particularly effective in terms of successfully identifying urban patterns in the rural areas where the logistic model often falls short. It was also found from the area-based tests that there are significant intra-regional differentiations in urban growth with different rules and rates. This suggests that the global modeling approach, or one model for the entire region, may not be adequate for simulation of a urban growth at the regional scale. Future research should develop methods for identification and subdivision of these areas and use a set of area-based models to address the issues of multi-centered, intra- regionally differentiated urban growth.

Using the LCZ framework for change detection and urban growth monitoring

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Danylo, Olha; See, Linda; Gomez, Adriana; Schnabel, Georg; Fritz, Steffen

2017-04-01

The world's population reached 7.3 billion in 2015 and it is projected to increase further to 9.7 billion by 2050. Population growth is strongly linked to city expansion, as many people are moving from rural to urban areas. In order to enhance inclusive and sustainable urbanization, we need an efficient workflow for assessing the corresponding SDG (Sustainable Development Goal) targets. In this study we investigate how the Local Climate Zone (LCZ) classification framework can be used for monitoring sustainable urbanization and assess the availability of adequate and safe housing. The original LCZ classification system consists of 10 urban classes, which can be characterized by urban structure, the type of roads and buildings, the density of the built-up area, etc. The other seven classes in the classification scheme include natural land cover classes that do not contain any buildings (e.g., forest, low vegetation, bare land, water, etc). As a case study area we have chosen the cities of Johannesburg and Pretoria in South Africa. According to the 2011 Census, the population of Gauteng province (which includes both Johannesburg and Pretoria) increased by 32.55% compared to 2001 Census and reached 12 million in 2011. A large number of people live in slums and informal housing, which makes this area relevant for such an analysis. Using available satellite images for different years, we classified the case-study areas into the main LCZ classes, including the lightweight lowrise building zone, which corresponds to informal housing. We estimated the land use efficiency as the ratio of the land consumption rate to the population growth rate to illustrate how the LCZ framework can be applied to the assessment of urban growth and to help understand the trajectories of the changes in the urban environment. We show that a low value of this ratio does not necessarily indicate sustainable city expansion, but may instead signal a growing population density in the slum areas.

Economic growth and suicide rate changes: a case in China from 1982 to 2005.

PubMed

Zhang, J; Ma, J; Jia, C; Sun, J; Guo, X; Xu, A; Li, W

2010-04-01

It is to estimate the trend of suicide rate changes during the past three decades in China and try to identify its social and economic correlates. Official data of suicide rates and economic indexes during 1982-2005 from Shandong Province of China were analyzed. The suicide data were categorized for the rural / urban location and gender, and the economic indexes include GDP, GDP per capita, rural income, and urban income, all adjusted for inflation. We found a significant increase of economic development and decrease of suicide rates over the past decades under study. The suicide rate decrease is correlated with the tremendous growth of economy. The unusual decrease of Chinese suicide rates in the past decades is accounted for within the Chinese cultural contexts and maybe by the Strain Theory of Suicide. Copyright (c) 2009 Elsevier Masson SAS. All rights reserved.

Urban vegetation and thermal patterns following city growth in different socio-economic contexts

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dronova, I.; Clinton, N.; Yang, J.; Radke, J.; Marx, S. S.; Gong, P.

2015-12-01

Urban expansion accompanied by losses of vegetated spaces and their ecological services raises significant concerns about the future of humans in metropolitan "habitats". Despite recent growth of urban studies globally, it is still not well understood how environmental effects of urbanization vary with the rate and socioeconomic context of development. Our study hypothesized that with urban development, spatial patterns of surface thermal properties and green plant cover would shift towards higher occurrence of relatively warmer and less vegetated spaces such as built-up areas, followed by losses of greener and cooler areas such as urban forests, and that these shifts would be more pronounced with higher rate of economic and/or population growth. To test these ideas, we compared 1992-2011 changes in remotely sensed patterns of green vegetation and surface temperature in three example cities that experienced peripheral growth under contrasting socio-economic context - Dallas, TX, USA, Beijing, China and Kyiv, Ukraine. To assess their transformation, we proposed a metric of thermal-vegetation angle (TVA) estimated from per-pixel proxies of vegetation greenness and surface temperature from Landsat satellite data and examined changes in TVA distributions within each city's core and two decadal zones of peripheral sprawl delineated from nighttime satellite data. We found that higher economic and population growth were coupled with more pronounced changes in TVA distributions, and more urbanized zones often exhibited higher frequencies of warmer, less green than average TVA values with novel patterns such as "cooler" clusters of building shadows. Although greener and cooler spaces generally diminished with development, they remained relatively prevalent in low-density residential areas of Dallas and peripheral zones of Kyiv with exurban subsistence farming. Overall, results indicate that the effects of modified green space and thermal patterns within growing cities highly vary depending on economy, population trends and historical legacies of planned green spaces. Remote sensing-based metrics such as TVA facilitate their comparisons and offer useful strategies to cost-effectively monitor urban transformation and inform more explicit environmental modeling of cities in the future.

Assessment of urban tree growth from structure, nutrients and composition data derived from airborne lidar and imaging spectroscopy

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gu, H.; Townsend, P. A.; Singh, A.

2014-12-01

Urban forests provide important ecosystem services related to climate, nutrients, runoff and aesthetics. Assessment of variations in urban forest growth is critical to urban management and planning, as well as to identify responses to climate and other environmental changes. We estimated annual relative basal area increment by tree rings from 37 plots in Madison, Wisconsin and neighboring municipalities. We related relative basal area growth to variables of vegetation traits derived from remote sensing, including structure (aboveground biomass, diameter, height, basal area, crown width and crown length) from discrete-return airborne lidar, and biochemical variables (foliar nitrogen, carbon, lignin, cellulose, fiber and LMA), spectral indices (NDVI, NDWI, PRI, NDII etc.) and species composition from AVIRIS hyperspectral imagery. Variations in tree growth was mainly correlated with tree species composition (R2 = 0.29, RMSE = 0.004) with coniferous stands having a faster growth rate than broadleaf plots. Inclusion of stand basal area improved model prediction from R2 = 0.29 to 0.35, with RMSE = 0.003. Then, we assessed the growth by functional type, we found that foliar lignin concentration and the proportion of live coniferous trees explained 57% variance in the growth of conifer stands. In contrast, broadleaf forest growth was more strongly correlated with species composition and foliar carbon (R2 = 0.59, RMSE = 0.003). Finally, we compared the relative basal area growth by species. In our study area, red pine and white pine exhibited higher growth rates than other species, while white oak plots grew slowest. There is a significant negative relationship between tree height and the relative growth in red pine stands (r = -0.95), as well as a strong negative relationship between crown width and the relative growth in white pine stands (r = -0.87). Growth declines as trees grow taller and wider may partly be the result of reduced photosynthesis and water availability. We also found that canopy cellulose content was negatively correlated with growth in white oak (r = -0.59), which could be caused by trade off of carbon allocation from shoot storage to leaves. These results demonstrate the potential of lidar and hyperspectral imagery to characterize important traits associated with biomass accumulation in urban forests.

The impact of rapid population growth, expanding urbanisation, and other factors on development in sub-Saharan Africa: the contrasting responses of Tanzania and Kenya.

PubMed

Huth, M J

1984-01-01

This article analyzes the impact of the twin factors of rapid population growth and expanding urbanization on social and economic development in sub-Saharan Africa and compares policies that have been developed in Tanzania and Kenya in response to these factors. The principal consequences of overpopulation and overurbanization have been economic stagnation and physical and cultural malaise in urban population centers. Between 1960-80, per capita incomes in 19 countries of sub-Saharan Africa grew by less than 1%/year and 15 countries recorded a negative rate of growth in per capita income during the 1970s. Urban populations have increased at at overall rate of 6%/year as sub-Saharan Africans have migrated to cities in search of employment. Few national governments in the region have formulated longterm strategies to deal effectively with this double-faceted development constraint or have integrated new urban populations into the national economy. tanzania's development strategy is focused on the goals of socialism, rural development, and self-reliance. Urban development has remained a residual item in Tanzania's national development process, despite the fact that the urban population increased from 5.7% of the total population in 1967 to 12.7% in 1978 and is projected to comprise 24.7% by the year 2000. In contrast, Kenya, whose proportion of urban population increased from 9% to 15% between 1962 and 1979, has pursued an urban-focused development strategy. The strong urban-rural linkages of the economy have focused migration to the secondary towns. The national development plan includes urban spatial, employment, and investment policies. Although this plan constitutes a good basis for future planning, the magnitude of the urban problem is beyond the capabilities of the central government and requires the development of local capabilities.

Urban climate modifies tree growth in Berlin

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dahlhausen, Jens; Rötzer, Thomas; Biber, Peter; Uhl, Enno; Pretzsch, Hans

2017-12-01

Climate, e.g., air temperature and precipitation, differs strongly between urban and peripheral areas, which causes diverse life conditions for trees. In order to compare tree growth, we sampled in total 252 small-leaved lime trees (Tilia cordata Mill) in the city of Berlin along a gradient from the city center to the surroundings. By means of increment cores, we are able to trace back their growth for the last 50 to 100 years. A general growth trend can be shown by comparing recent basal area growth with estimates from extrapolating a growth function that had been fitted with growth data from earlier years. Estimating a linear model, we show that air temperature and precipitation significantly influence tree growth within the last 20 years. Under consideration of housing density, the results reveal that higher air temperature and less precipitation led to higher growth rates in high-dense areas, but not in low-dense areas. In addition, our data reveal a significantly higher variance of the ring width index in areas with medium housing density compared to low housing density, but no temporal trend. Transferring the results to forest stands, climate change is expected to lead to higher tree growth rates.

Urban climate modifies tree growth in Berlin

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dahlhausen, Jens; Rötzer, Thomas; Biber, Peter; Uhl, Enno; Pretzsch, Hans

2018-05-01

Climate, e.g., air temperature and precipitation, differs strongly between urban and peripheral areas, which causes diverse life conditions for trees. In order to compare tree growth, we sampled in total 252 small-leaved lime trees ( Tilia cordata Mill) in the city of Berlin along a gradient from the city center to the surroundings. By means of increment cores, we are able to trace back their growth for the last 50 to 100 years. A general growth trend can be shown by comparing recent basal area growth with estimates from extrapolating a growth function that had been fitted with growth data from earlier years. Estimating a linear model, we show that air temperature and precipitation significantly influence tree growth within the last 20 years. Under consideration of housing density, the results reveal that higher air temperature and less precipitation led to higher growth rates in high-dense areas, but not in low-dense areas. In addition, our data reveal a significantly higher variance of the ring width index in areas with medium housing density compared to low housing density, but no temporal trend. Transferring the results to forest stands, climate change is expected to lead to higher tree growth rates.

Urban climate modifies tree growth in Berlin.

PubMed

Dahlhausen, Jens; Rötzer, Thomas; Biber, Peter; Uhl, Enno; Pretzsch, Hans

2018-05-01

Climate, e.g., air temperature and precipitation, differs strongly between urban and peripheral areas, which causes diverse life conditions for trees. In order to compare tree growth, we sampled in total 252 small-leaved lime trees (Tilia cordata Mill) in the city of Berlin along a gradient from the city center to the surroundings. By means of increment cores, we are able to trace back their growth for the last 50 to 100 years. A general growth trend can be shown by comparing recent basal area growth with estimates from extrapolating a growth function that had been fitted with growth data from earlier years. Estimating a linear model, we show that air temperature and precipitation significantly influence tree growth within the last 20 years. Under consideration of housing density, the results reveal that higher air temperature and less precipitation led to higher growth rates in high-dense areas, but not in low-dense areas. In addition, our data reveal a significantly higher variance of the ring width index in areas with medium housing density compared to low housing density, but no temporal trend. Transferring the results to forest stands, climate change is expected to lead to higher tree growth rates.

A coupled model approach to reduce nonpoint-source pollution resulting from predicted urban growth: A case study in the Ambos Nogales watershed

USGS Publications Warehouse

Norman, L.M.; Guertin, D.P.; Feller, M.

2008-01-01

The development of new approaches for understanding processes of urban development and their environmental effects, as well as strategies for sustainable management, is essential in expanding metropolitan areas. This study illustrates the potential of linking urban growth and watershed models to identify problem areas and support long-term watershed planning. Sediment is a primary source of nonpoint-source pollution in surface waters. In urban areas, sediment is intermingled with other surface debris in transport. In an effort to forecast the effects of development on surface-water quality, changes predicted in urban areas by the SLEUTH urban growth model were applied in the context of erosion-sedimentation models (Universal Soil Loss Equation and Spatially Explicit Delivery Models). The models are used to simulate the effect of excluding hot-spot areas of erosion and sedimentation from future urban growth and to predict the impacts of alternative erosion-control scenarios. Ambos Nogales, meaning 'both Nogaleses,' is a name commonly used for the twin border cities of Nogales, Arizona and Nogales, Sonora, Mexico. The Ambos Nogales watershed has experienced a decrease in water quality as a result of urban development in the twin-city area. Population growth rates in Ambos Nogales are high and the resources set in place to accommodate the rapid population influx will soon become overburdened. Because of its remote location and binational governance, monitoring and planning across the border is compromised. One scenario described in this research portrays an improvement in water quality through the identification of high-risk areas using models that simulate their protection from development and replanting with native grasses, while permitting the predicted and inevitable growth elsewhere. This is meant to add to the body of knowledge about forecasting the impact potential of urbanization on sediment delivery to streams for sustainable development, which can be accomplished in a virtual environment. Copyright ?? 2008 by Bellwether Publishing, Ltd. All rights reserved.

Characterizing Air Pollution in Two Low-Income Neighborhoods in Accra, Ghana

EPA Science Inventory

Sub-Saharan Africa has the highest rate of urban population growth in the world, with a large number of urban residents living in low-income “slum” neighborhoods. We conducted a study for an initial assessment of the levels and spatial and/or temporal patterns of multiple polluta...

Ecophysiology of horse chestnut (Aesculus Hippocastanum L.) in degraded and restored urban sites

Treesearch

Jacek Oleksyn; Brian D. Kloeppel; Szymon Lukasiewicz; Piotr Karolewski; Peter B. Reich

2007-01-01

We explored changes in growth, phenology, net CO2 assimilation rate, water use efficiency, secondary defense compounds, substrate and foliage nutrient concentration of a degraded urban horse chestnut (Aesculus hippocastanum L.) site restored for three years using mulching (tree branches including foliage) and fertilization (...

Trends in Urbanization and Implications for Peri-Urban Livelihoods in Accra, Ghana

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Adom, Cynthia

Urbanization is a common occurrence in both developed and developing worlds. Similar to occurrences in other developing world cities, Accra's urbanization is marked by fast, unplanned and uneven growth into mostly peripheral lands (Grant and Yankson 2002; Yeboah 2001; Ghana Statistical Service (GSS) 2002). Such trends in urbanization in places where data on the urbanization process is seriously inadequate and infrequent, (Rakodi 1997a; Ohadika 1991; Fasona and Omojola 2004) pose a major challenge to urban planning and management (Henderson 2002), and affect the livelihood base of several peri-urban households. Properly monitoring the urbanization process in the developing world and understanding its effects on people's lives depends on the availability of useful and up-to- date data (Weber and Puissant 2003; Mundia and Aniya 2006) that could be obtained using new and robust analytical techniques (Yang 2003). In addition, in the urban environment, differences in rates of urbanization, income, employment status, and gender dynamics across neighborhoods suggest that the impacts of increasing urbanization on peri-urban livelihoods are likely to vary across peoples and places. Against this backdrop, this dissertation uses Accra as a case study to, first, measures the nature and extent of urban expansion using a non-conventional technique, and then analyzes neighborhood - and gender-differentiated impacts of increasing urbanization on household livelihoods in peri-urban Accra. Study findings reveal: 1) major conversion of vegetated land to urban lands uses and support the effectiveness of the Self-Organizing Map and Landsat data to map complex and hazy urban tropical environments; 2) that the impacts of urbanization on peri-urban livelihoods are structured along the lines of neighborhood-level urbanization; changes brought by a higher rate of urbanization are more beneficial than harmful to household livelihoods; 3) that positive livelihood outcomes in high-growth neighborhoods as a result of increasing urbanization have disproportionately benefited male-headed households compared to female-headed households. Although study findings do not match some of the prior thinking about impacts of urbanization on livelihoods, it corroborates recent urban theory that asserts that urbanization does not necessarily result in the perpetuation of urban poverty.

Urbanization, economic development and health: evidence from China's labor-force dynamic survey.

PubMed

Chen, Hongsheng; Liu, Ye; Li, Zhigang; Xue, Desheng

2017-11-29

The frequent outbreak of environmental threats in China has resulted in increased criticism regarding the health effects of China's urbanization. Urbanization is a double-edged sword with regard to health in China. Although great efforts have been made to investigate the mechanisms through which urbanization influences health, the effect of both economic development and urbanization on health in China is still unclear, and how urbanization-health (or development-health) relationships vary among different income groups remain poorly understood. To bridge these gaps, the present study investigates the impact of both urbanization and economic development on individuals' self-rated health and its underlying mechanisms in China. We use data from the national scale of the 2014 China Labor-force Dynamics Survey to analyze the impact of China's urbanization and economic development on health. A total of 14,791 individuals were sampled from 401 neighborhoods within 124 prefecture-level cities. Multilevel ordered logistic models were applied. Model results showed an inverted U-shaped relationship between individuals' self-rated health and urbanization rates (with a turning point of urbanization rate at 42.0%) and a positive linear relationship between their self-rated health and economic development. Model results also suggested that the urbanization-health relationship was inverted U-shaped for high- and middle-income people (with a turning point of urbanization rate at 0.0% and 49.2%, respectively), and the development-health relationship was inverted U-shaped for high- and low-income people (with turning points of GDP per capita at 93,462 yuan and 71,333 yuan, respectively) and linear for middle-income people. The impact of urbanization and economic development on health in China is complicated. Careful assessments are needed to understand the health impact of China's rapid urbanization. Social and environmental problems arising from rapid urbanization and economic growth should be addressed. Equitable provision of health services are needed to improve low-income groups' health in highly urbanized cities.

Urbanization prolongs hantavirus epidemics in cities

PubMed Central

Tian, Huaiyu; Hu, Shixiong; Chowell, Gerardo; Gao, Lidong; Li, Yapin; Yang, Huisuo; Li, Yidan; Yang, Qiqi; Tong, Xin; Huang, Ru; Bjornstad, Ottar N.; Xiao, Hong; Stenseth, Nils Chr.

2018-01-01

Urbanization and rural–urban migration are two factors driving global patterns of disease and mortality. There is significant concern about their potential impact on disease burden and the effectiveness of current control approaches. Few attempts have been made to increase our understanding of the relationship between urbanization and disease dynamics, although it is generally believed that urban living has contributed to reductions in communicable disease burden in industrialized countries. To investigate this relationship, we carried out spatiotemporal analyses using a 48-year-long dataset of hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome incidence (HFRS; mainly caused by two serotypes of hantavirus in China: Hantaan virus and Seoul virus) and population movements in an important endemic area of south China during the period 1963–2010. Our findings indicate that epidemics coincide with urbanization, geographic expansion, and migrant movement over time. We found a biphasic inverted U-shaped relationship between HFRS incidence and urbanization, with various endemic turning points associated with economic growth rates in cities. Our results revealed the interrelatedness of urbanization, migration, and hantavirus epidemiology, potentially explaining why urbanizing cities with high economic growth exhibit extended epidemics. Our results also highlight contrasting effects of urbanization on zoonotic disease outbreaks during periods of economic development in China. PMID:29666240

Urbanization and the problem of restricting the growth of very large cities.

PubMed

Bialkovskaia, V; Novikov, V

1983-10-01

This article discusses the problem of preventing the excessive growth of very large cities to the detriment of the development of smaller urban settlements in the USSR. The increase in size of the urban population throughout the entire USSR is mainly connected with the increase in the number of city dwellers. In 1960 and 1970 the number of largest cities in the USSR increased, along with a share of the nation's population living in these large cities. The low natural increase in population of very large cities creates a high demand for labor power which must come from the population of other cities. In 1970-1980, Moscow, one of the largest millionaire cities, had the lowest population growth rate of all major USSR cities (113.7%). The growth of Moscow and other very large cities in the last few years has been due to the mechanical increase in population and the increase in area. The analysis of Moscow's pattern of population growth over time focuses on changes in the level of availability of social and everyday services. The prewar period is characterized by a reserve of labor resources, the highest growth in industry and science, but a low overall population dynamic in the city. In the postwar period there was a significant decline in the annual increase of all indicators; this was a period of strong social development of the city. The period between 1966 and 1980 shows a further slowdown in the growth rate of city forming branches by an accelerated development of municipal service branches. The demand for measures to restrict the growth of very large Soviet cities depends on: 1) the reorientation of the development of the economic base, 2) the restructuring of their economy, and 3) the siting of various types of production of goods and services. Developing the specialization of the urban economy consists of planned development of the production of goods and services based on the use of available resources.

Tracking urban activity growth globally with big location data

PubMed Central

Daggitt, Matthew L.; Noulas, Anastasios; Shaw, Blake; Mascolo, Cecilia

2016-01-01

In recent decades, the world has experienced rates of urban growth unparalleled in any other period of history and this growth is shaping the environment in which an increasing proportion of us live. In this paper, we use a longitudinal dataset from Foursquare, a location-based social network, to analyse urban growth across 100 major cities worldwide. Initially, we explore how urban growth differs in cities across the world. We show that there exists a strong spatial correlation, with nearby pairs of cities more likely to share similar growth profiles than remote pairs of cities. Subsequently, we investigate how growth varies inside cities and demonstrate that, given the existing local density of places, higher-than-expected growth is highly localized while lower-than-expected growth is more diffuse. Finally, we attempt to use the dataset to characterize competition between new and existing venues. By defining a measure based on the change in throughput of a venue before and after the opening of a new nearby venue, we demonstrate which venue types have a positive effect on venues of the same type and which have a negative effect. For example, our analysis confirms the hypothesis that there is large degree of competition between bookstores, in the sense that existing bookstores normally experience a notable drop in footfall after a new bookstore opens nearby. Other place types, such as museums, are shown to have a cooperative effect and their presence fosters higher traffic volumes to nearby places of the same type. PMID:27152210

Tracking urban activity growth globally with big location data.

PubMed

Daggitt, Matthew L; Noulas, Anastasios; Shaw, Blake; Mascolo, Cecilia

2016-04-01

In recent decades, the world has experienced rates of urban growth unparalleled in any other period of history and this growth is shaping the environment in which an increasing proportion of us live. In this paper, we use a longitudinal dataset from Foursquare, a location-based social network, to analyse urban growth across 100 major cities worldwide. Initially, we explore how urban growth differs in cities across the world. We show that there exists a strong spatial correlation, with nearby pairs of cities more likely to share similar growth profiles than remote pairs of cities. Subsequently, we investigate how growth varies inside cities and demonstrate that, given the existing local density of places, higher-than-expected growth is highly localized while lower-than-expected growth is more diffuse. Finally, we attempt to use the dataset to characterize competition between new and existing venues. By defining a measure based on the change in throughput of a venue before and after the opening of a new nearby venue, we demonstrate which venue types have a positive effect on venues of the same type and which have a negative effect. For example, our analysis confirms the hypothesis that there is large degree of competition between bookstores, in the sense that existing bookstores normally experience a notable drop in footfall after a new bookstore opens nearby. Other place types, such as museums, are shown to have a cooperative effect and their presence fosters higher traffic volumes to nearby places of the same type.

Integrated models for solid waste management in tourism regions: Langkawi Island, Malaysia.

PubMed

Shamshiry, Elmira; Nadi, Behzad; Mokhtar, Mazlin Bin; Komoo, Ibrahim; Hashim, Halimaton Saadiah; Yahaya, Nadzri

2011-01-01

The population growth, changing consumption patterns, and rapid urbanization contribute significantly to the growing volumes of solid waste that are generated in urban settings. As the rate of urbanization increases, demand on the services of solid waste management increases. The rapid urban growth in Langkawi Island, Malaysia, combined with the increasing rates of solid waste production has provided evidence that the traditional solid waste management practices, particularly the methods of waste collection and disposal, are inefficient and quite nonsustainable. Accordingly, municipal managers and planners in Langkawi need to look for and adopt a model for solid waste management that emphasizes an efficient and sustainable management of solid wastes in Langkawi Island. This study presents the current practices of solid waste management in Langkawi Island, describes the composition of the solid waste generated in that area, and presents views of local residents and tourist on issues related to solid waste management like the aesthetic value of the island environment. The most important issue of this paper is that it is the first time that integrated solid waste management is investigated in the Langkawi Island.

Integrated Models for Solid Waste Management in Tourism Regions: Langkawi Island, Malaysia

PubMed Central

Shamshiry, Elmira; Nadi, Behzad; Bin Mokhtar, Mazlin; Komoo, Ibrahim; Saadiah Hashim, Halimaton; Yahaya, Nadzri

2011-01-01

The population growth, changing consumption patterns, and rapid urbanization contribute significantly to the growing volumes of solid waste that are generated in urban settings. As the rate of urbanization increases, demand on the services of solid waste management increases. The rapid urban growth in Langkawi Island, Malaysia, combined with the increasing rates of solid waste production has provided evidence that the traditional solid waste management practices, particularly the methods of waste collection and disposal, are inefficient and quite nonsustainable. Accordingly, municipal managers and planners in Langkawi need to look for and adopt a model for solid waste management that emphasizes an efficient and sustainable management of solid wastes in Langkawi Island. This study presents the current practices of solid waste management in Langkawi Island, describes the composition of the solid waste generated in that area, and presents views of local residents and tourist on issues related to solid waste management like the aesthetic value of the island environment. The most important issue of this paper is that it is the first time that integrated solid waste management is investigated in the Langkawi Island. PMID:21904559

Population, migration and urbanization.

PubMed

1982-06-01

Despite recent estimates that natural increase is becoming a more important component of urban growth than rural urban transfer (excess of inmigrants over outmigrants), the share of migration in the total population growth has been consistently increasing in both developed and developing countries. From a demographic perspective, the migration process involves 3 elements: an area of origin which the mover leaves and where he or she is considered an outmigrant; the destination or place of inmigration; and the period over which migration is measured. The 2 basic types of migration are internal and international. Internal migration consists of rural to urban migration, urban to urban migration, rural to rural migration, and urban to rural migration. Among these 4 types of migration various patterns or processes are followed. Migration may be direct when the migrant moves directly from the village to the city and stays there permanently. It can be circular migration, meaning that the migrant moves to the city when it is not planting season and returns to the village when he is needed on the farm. In stage migration the migrant makes a series of moves, each to a city closer to the largest or fastest growing city. Temporary migration may be 1 time or cyclical. The most dominant pattern of internal migration is rural urban. The contribution of migration to urbanization is evident. For example, the rapid urbanization and increase in urban growth from 1960-70 in the Republic of Korea can be attributed to net migration. In Asia the largest component of the population movement consists of individuals and groups moving from 1 rural location to another. Recently, because urban centers could no longer absorb the growing number of migrants from other places, there has been increased interest in the urban to rural population redistribution. This reverse migration also has come about due to slower rates of employment growth in the urban centers and improved economic opportunities in rural areas. According to UN data, at the global level the trend in longterm and permanent migration is towards stabilization or decline in the rate of movement into developed countries like the US, Canada, the UK, and Australia from developing countries. Migrants in the Asian and Pacific region mostly tend to be in the 15-25 year age group. Most migrants streams are male dominant. The rural urban migration stream includes a large proportion of people who are better educated than their rural counterparts but generally less educated than the urban natives. Reasons for migrating in the Asian and Pacific region are economic, educational, sociocultural and political. A negative factor in rural migration is that it deprives villages of the ablest people.

Understanding spatial-temporal urban expansion pattern (1990-2009) using impervious surface data and landscape indexes: a case study in Guangzhou (China)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fan, Fenglei; Fan, Wei

2014-01-01

A new viewpoint for understanding the urban expansion using impervious surface information, which is obtained using remote sensing imagery is presented. The purpose of this study is to understand and describe the urban expansion pattern with the view of impervious surfaces instead of the conventional view of land use/land cover. Six years' worth of impervious surface data (1990-2009) of Guangzhou are extracted via linear spectral unmixing analysis methods and spatial and temporal characteristics are discussed in detail. The area, density, and gravity centers changes of the impervious surfaces are analyzed to explain internal/external urban expansion. Meanwhile, five landscape indexes, such as patch density, edge density, mean patch size, area-weighted, and fragmentation index, are utilized to describe landscape changes of Guangzhou in past 20 years, which are influenced deeply by the impervious surface expansion. In order to detail landscape changes, two transects corresponding to the two urban expansion directions are designed and five landscape metrics in these two transects are reported. Conclusions can be drawn and shown as following: (1) temporally, the area of impervious surfaces increases from 12,998 to 59,911 ha from 1990 to 2009. The amount of impervious surface varies in different periods. The annual growth rates of impervious surface area during 1990-1995, 1995-1998, and 1998-2000 are 10.16%, 11.61%, and 10.78%, respectively; (2) annual growth rates decrease from 10.78% (1998-2000) to 5.67% (2000-2003). Nevertheless, from 2003-2009, the annual growth rate has a slight increase compared to a former period. The rate is 5.91% (3) spatially, gravity centers of medium and high percentage impervious surfaces migrate slightly; and (4) according to the gradient analysis in the two transects, it can be observed that the high percentage of impervious surface increases gradually in new city districts (from west to east and from south to north).

The Calcutta metropolitan district.

PubMed

1987-01-01

11 million residents in 1450 square kilometers make the Calcutta Metropolitan District the world's most densely packed metropolis and the world's 6th largest urban agglomeration. But even though Calcutta is India's largest city, it is growing at a much slower pace than other Indian cities. Its annual growth rate between 1971 and 1981 was 2.65%, well below the 3.8% growth rate for India's urban population as a whole. Even at this relatively slow growth rate, however, Calcutta's population will still grow to 11.7 million residents in 1990 and 15.9 million in 2000. Calcutta's failure to create urban jobs quickly enough to accommodate its vast population increase has led to widespread evidence of unemployment and extreme poverty. Many in Calcutta complain that the central goverment has thwarted development and international aid to Calcutta. Industrial stagnation has slowed the area's urbanization and rural-urban migration. As greater numbers of new job seekers enter the labor force and the dropout rate diminishes due to dramatic inprovement in health, relentless pressure is put on Calcutta's already strained economy. Calcutta's job seekers will be partly absorbed by the informal sector; one study estimates that 40-50% of Calcutta's labor force is employed in the informal sector. In 1971, 6% of Calcutta's work force was employed in agriculture, 40% in manufacturing, and 54% in services. 2/3 of the population make less than $35 a month, and about 10% are officially unemployed. Despite great improvements in public works, Calcutta's slums are still India's worst. Living standards have gone down compared to India as a whole. Most of the middle class has moved to the suburbs; what is left in the central core is the rich and the poor. However, despite widening income disparities, Calcutta is still a peaceful city--especially so at a time when India is marked with so much violence.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Yu, Sha; Evans, Meredydd

Vietnam has experienced fast growth in energy consumption in the past decade, with annual growth rate of over 12 percent. This is accompanied by the fast increase in commercial energy use, driven by rapid industrialization, expansion of motorized transport, and increasing energy use in residential and commercial buildings. Meanwhile, Vietnam is experiencing rapid urbanization at a rate of 3.4 percent per year; and the majority of the growth centered in and near major cities such as Hanoi and Ho Chi Minh City. This has resulted in a construction boom in Vietnam.

[Population trends in Albania].

PubMed

Sivignon, M

1983-01-01

Recent demographic trends in Albania are reviewed. The author notes that rapid population growth persists due to continuing fertility, although the fertility rate has begun to decline during the past 20 years. Controls placed on internal migration have succeeded in restricting the growth of the urban population and have contributed to the sustained growth of the population in rural areas. (summary in ENG)

Quantifying different types of urban growth and the change dynamic in Guangzhou using multi-temporal remote sensing data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sun, Cheng; Wu, Zhi-feng; Lv, Zhi-qiang; Yao, Na; Wei, Jian-bing

2013-04-01

There is a widespread concern about urban sprawl. It has negative impacts on natural resources, economic health, and community character. Without a universal definition of urban sprawl, its quantification and modeling is difficult. Traditionally, urban sprawl was described using qualitative terms, and landscape patterns. Quantitative methods are required to help local, regional and state land use planners to better identify, understand and address it. In this study, an integrated approach of remote sensing and GIS was used to identify three urban growth types of infilling growth, outlying growth and edge-expansion growth at the city of Guangzhou, China. Spatial metrics were used to characterize long-term trends and patterns of urban growth. Result shows that the proposed method can identify and visualize different urban growth types. Infilling growth is the dominant expansion type. Edge-expansion is concentrated at suburban areas. Outlying growth mainly occurs relatively far from the urban core. The analysis shows that initially the urban area expands mainly as outlying growth, causing increased fragmentation and dispersion of urban areas. Next, growth filled in vacant non-urban area inwards, resulting into a more compact and aggregated urban pattern. The study shows an improved understanding of urban growth, and helps to provide an effective way for urban planning.

Fifty years of population growth and absorption of labor in Brazil: from 1950 to 2000.

PubMed

Paiva, P D

1997-01-01

For a long time, the Brazilian population has grown at a relatively high rate, and only recently has the process of demographic transition intensified in the country. While the associated decline in fertility could result in a future decline in the size of the working-age population, it could also lead to an increase in female participation in the labor market. Brazil's economy is performing well, with gross domestic product (GDP) growing at an average annual rate of 7.1% during 1947-80. Marked growth in industrial employment opportunities has accompanied this growth in GDP. The size of the informal sector, however, has not decreased in similar proportion, while the 1981-83 economic crisis caused urban employment levels to drop, especially in industry and construction. Moreover, the level of rural-urban migration has increased and the agricultural employment index has fallen. The author evaluates past growth trends of the Economically Active Population (EAP) and of employment in Brazil, and assesses the potential growth of the labor force until the year 2000.

Inter- and intraannual growth patterns of urban small-leaved lime (Tilia cordata mill.) at two public squares with contrasting microclimatic conditions.

PubMed

Moser, Astrid; Rahman, Mohammad A; Pretzsch, Hans; Pauleit, Stephan; Rötzer, Thomas

2017-06-01

The effects of urban conditions on tree growth have been investigated in an increasing number of studies over the last decades, emphasizing the harsh environment of cities. Urban trees often grow in highly paved, compacted sites with consequently less soil moisture, higher soil temperatures, and greater vapor pressure deficits. However, there is still a knowledge gap regarding the impact of harsh paved environments on urban tree growth during drought years on the growth patterns of urban trees. The present study investigated the structure and growth of the common urban tree species small-leaved lime (Tilia cordata) at a highly paved public square (CPS) compared with a contrasting more open, greener square (OGS). Continuously, measured high precision dendrometer data along with meteorological data of the extreme dry and warm summer 2015 as well as dendrochronological data of the sampled trees were investigated to analyze tree growth during a drought year. The results highlight different tree dimensions and growth patterns of the trees at both sites, influenced by tree age and distinct site conditions. While the trees at OGS grew up to 2.5 mm from July until mid of August, the trees at CPS had only 0.4-mm diameter increment. After the initial expansion at CPS, tree diameter contracted again during summer to the point of shrinkage (up to 0.8 mm) at the end of our investigation. Further drought year analysis confirmed the patterns of significant stem growth reductions in the consecutive two years following the drought. A correlation analysis revealed that transpiration, air temperature, and vapor pressure deficit were negatively correlated with the daily diameter growth, whereas precipitation had a strong positive effect. Due to high transpiration rates associated with anisohydric water use behavior, T. cordata was able to provide evaporative cooling even during drought. However, this anisohydric behavior resulted in substantial growth decline afterwards especially at paved sites like CPS. Our results suggest selection of tree species, such as those with isohydric water use behavior, which may achieve a better balance between growth, transpiration, and hence evaporative cooling.

Urban sprawl and fragmentation in Latin America: a dynamic quantification and characterization of spatial patterns.

PubMed

Inostroza, Luis; Baur, Rolf; Csaplovics, Elmar

2013-01-30

South America is one of the most urbanized continents in the world, where almost 84% of the total population lives in cities, more urbanized than North America (82%) and Europe (73%). Spatial dynamics, their structure, main features, land consumption rates, spatial arrangement, fragmentation degrees and comparability, remain mostly unknown for most Latin American cities. Using satellite imagery the main parameters of sprawl are quantified for 10 Latin American cities over a period of 20 years by monitoring growth patterns and identifying spatial metrics to characterize urban development and sprawling features measured with GIS tools. This quantification contributes to a better understanding of urban form in Latin America. A pervasive spatial expansion has been observed, where most of the studied cities are expanding at fast rates with falling densities trend. Although important differences in the rates of land consumption and densities exist, there is an underlying fragmentation trend towards increasing sprawl. These trends of spatial discontinuity may eventually be intensified by further economic development. Urban Sprawl/Latin America/GIS metrics/spatial development. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Metropolitan Growth and Economic Opportunity for the Poor: If You're Poor Does Place Matter?

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Foster-Bey, John A.

This paper focuses on why metropolitan areas vary in their capacity to translate generally high employment rates into economic opportunity for the disadvantaged. Data come from the Urban Institute's Urban Underclass Database, which includes poverty and employment data for 1980 and 1990 for the 100 largest metropolitan areas down to the Census…

Study on changing patterns of reproductive behaviours due to maternal features and place of residence in Poland during 1995-2014.

PubMed

Genowska, Agnieszka; Szafraniec, Krystyna; Polak, Maciej; Szpak, Andrzej; Walecka, Irena; Owoc, Jakub

2018-03-14

The sharp decline in the total fertility rate in Poland coincided with broader socio-economic changes, which resulted in its reduction to the lowest level observed among the countries of Central and Eastern Europe. Objective. The aim of the study was to investigate and evaluate the changing patterns of reproductive behaviour in rural and urban areas, depending on the demographic and socio-economic features in Poland. Information about live births in Poland in the years 1995-2014 were obtained from the Central Statistical Office. Registered cases of live births in rural and urban areas were analyzed considering the maternal features (age, marital status, main source of income). To evaluate the changes in fertility and comparisons between rural and urban areas, Joinpoint Regresssion was used. In 1995-2014, a shift in the age of highest fertility from 20-24 years to 25-29 years was observed. This occurred at the same time as a reduction in the fertility rate per 1,000 women aged 15-29 years, more pronounced in rural areas (95.8 to 60.0) than in urban areas (63.4 to 51.5), while in women aged 30-49 years, a faster increase in fertility was observed in urban areas (16.4 to 32.0) than in rural areas (27.5-29.2). Fertility trends between rural and urban areas differed significantly. A significant increase in live births for employed mothers was shown mainly in 2005-2009; later, the growth rate in rural areas was slower and in urban areas the growth trend stopped. The postponement of births and reduction of fertility in women aged 15-29 requires active measures aimed at creating favourable conditions for achieving economic independence for the younger generation, as well as combining work with raising children, especially in rural areas. APC - annual percentage change; AAPC - average annual percentage change; CSO - Central Statistical Office; TFR - total fertility rate.

Modeling Growth in Boys' Aggressive Behavior across Elementary School: Links to Later Criminal Involvement, Conduct Disorder, and Antisocial Personality Disorder

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Schaeffer, Cindy M.; Petras, Hanno; Ialongo, Nicholas; Poduska, Jeanne; Kellam, Sheppard

2003-01-01

The present study used general growth mixture modeling to identify pathways of antisocial behavior development within an epidemiological sample of urban, primarily African American boys. Teacher-rated aggression, measured longitudinally from 1st to 7th grade, was used to define growth trajectories. Three high-risk trajectories (chronic high,…

Urbanization prolongs hantavirus epidemics in cities.

PubMed

Tian, Huaiyu; Hu, Shixiong; Cazelles, Bernard; Chowell, Gerardo; Gao, Lidong; Laine, Marko; Li, Yapin; Yang, Huisuo; Li, Yidan; Yang, Qiqi; Tong, Xin; Huang, Ru; Bjornstad, Ottar N; Xiao, Hong; Stenseth, Nils Chr

2018-05-01

Urbanization and rural-urban migration are two factors driving global patterns of disease and mortality. There is significant concern about their potential impact on disease burden and the effectiveness of current control approaches. Few attempts have been made to increase our understanding of the relationship between urbanization and disease dynamics, although it is generally believed that urban living has contributed to reductions in communicable disease burden in industrialized countries. To investigate this relationship, we carried out spatiotemporal analyses using a 48-year-long dataset of hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome incidence (HFRS; mainly caused by two serotypes of hantavirus in China: Hantaan virus and Seoul virus) and population movements in an important endemic area of south China during the period 1963-2010. Our findings indicate that epidemics coincide with urbanization, geographic expansion, and migrant movement over time. We found a biphasic inverted U-shaped relationship between HFRS incidence and urbanization, with various endemic turning points associated with economic growth rates in cities. Our results revealed the interrelatedness of urbanization, migration, and hantavirus epidemiology, potentially explaining why urbanizing cities with high economic growth exhibit extended epidemics. Our results also highlight contrasting effects of urbanization on zoonotic disease outbreaks during periods of economic development in China. Copyright © 2018 the Author(s). Published by PNAS.

Project ATLANTA (ATlanta Land-use ANalysis: Temperature and Air quality): A Study of how the Urban Landscape Affects Meteorology and Air Quality Through Time

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Quattrochi, Dale A.; Luvall, Jeffrey C.; Estes, Maurice G.; Lo, C. P.; Kidder, Stanley Q.; Hafner, Jan; Taha, Haider; Bornstein, Robert D.; Gillies, Robert R.; Gallo, Kevin P.

1998-01-01

It is our intent through this investigation to help facilitate measures that can be Project ATLANTA (ATlanta Land-use ANalysis: applied to mitigate climatological or air quality Temperature and Air-quality) is a NASA Earth degradation, or to design alternate measures to sustain Observing System (EOS) Interdisciplinary Science or improve the overall urban environment in the future. investigation that seeks to observe, measure, model, and analyze how the rapid growth of the Atlanta. The primary objectives for this research effort are: 1) To In the last half of the 20th century, Atlanta, investigate and model the relationship between Atlanta Georgia has risen as the premier commercial, urban growth, land cover change, and the development industrial, and transportation urban area of the of the urban heat island phenomenon through time at southeastern United States. The rapid growth of the nested spatial scales from local to regional; 2) To Atlanta area, particularly within the last 25 years, has investigate and model the relationship between Atlanta made Atlanta one of the fastest growing metropolitan urban growth and land cover change on air quality areas in the United States. The population of the through time at nested spatial scales from local to Atlanta metropolitan area increased 27% between 1970 regional; and 3) To model the overall effects of urban and 1980, and 33% between 1980-1990 (Research development on surface energy budget characteristics Atlanta, Inc., 1993). Concomitant with this high rate of across the Atlanta urban landscape through time at population growth, has been an explosive growth in nested spatial scales from local to regional. Our key retail, industrial, commercial, and transportation goal is to derive a better scientific understanding of how services within the Atlanta region. This has resulted in land cover changes associated with urbanization in the tremendous land cover change dynamics within the Atlanta area, principally in transforming forest lands to metropolitan region, wherein urbanization has urban land covers through time, has, and will, effect consumed vast acreas of land adjacent to the city local and regional climate, surface energy flux, and air proper and has pushed the rural/urban fringe farther quality characteristics. Allied with this goal is the and farther away from the original Atlanta urban core. prospect that the results from this research can be An enormous transition of land from forest and applied by urban planners, environmental managers agriculture to urban land uses has occurred in the and other decision-makers, for determining how Atlanta area in the last 25 years, along with subsequent urbanization has impacted the climate and overall

[Population planning unit is developed in the Congo].

PubMed

Amouali, C; Poukouta, P

1989-01-01

This article is an update on the demographic situation in the Congo and the institutionalization of a population unit in The Ministry of Plan. From 1974-84 the population increased 44.9% going from 1,319,790 to 1,912,429 at a growth rate of 3.48% and possibly doubling in 20 years (2005). However, the major transformation has been the growth of the urban areas over the rural. From 1974-84 the rural population went from 819,430 to 934,849 while the urban population went from 500,360 in 1974 to 977,580 in 1984. The growth rate of the rural areas was 1.22% while that for the urban was 6.38% Infant mortality rate stands at 73/1000; life expectancy is 46.9 for men and 50.0 for women. The average fertility rate is 6. This demographic situation with the inherent problems of the rapidly growing urbanization of the 2 principal cities, Brazzaville and Pointe-Noire, has led to problems in health services and high morbidity and mortality rates. The Government has created 3 national organizations to coordinate population activities in the country: 1) The National Council on Population, (1988) an interministerial council, presided over by the Prime Minister, that defines and formulates national population policies as integral components to the country's socioeconomic development plans; 2) The National Commission on Population (CONAPO), headed by the Minister of Plan, Finance and Economics as the administrative organ of The National Council on Population, and responsible for the technical and evaluation activities of The National Council on Population; and 3) The Population Planning Unit headed by the Director of Human Resources in the Ministry of Plan responsible for identifying, formulating and evaluating population policies in the Congo. These institutions were created as a result of the 1974 Bucharest Conference and the 1984 Arusha Conference were population and development were considered integral components, and of results of 2 censuses and population surveys highlighting the demographic situation in the Congo.

Space-based monitoring of land-use/land-cover in the Upper Rio Grande Basin: An opportunity for understanding urbanization trends in a water-scarce transboundary river basin.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mubako, S. T.; Hargrove, W. L.; Heyman, J. M.; Reyes, C. S.

2016-12-01

Urbanization is an area of growing interest in assessing the impact of human activities on water resources in arid regions. Remote sensing techniques provide an opportunity to analyze land cover change over time, and are useful in monitoring areas undergoing rapid urban growth. This case study for the water-scarce Upper Rio Grande River Basin uses a supervised classification algorithm to quantify the rate and evaluate the pattern of urban sprawl. A focus is made on the fast growing El-Paso-Juarez metropolitan area on the US-Mexico border and the City of Las Cruces in New Mexico, areas where environmental challenges and loss of agricultural and native land to urban development are major concerns. Preliminary results show that the land cover is dominantly native with some significant agriculture along the Rio Grande River valley. Urban development across the whole study area expanded from just under 3 percent in 1990, to more than 11 percent in 2015. The urban expansion is occurring mainly around the major urban areas of El Paso, Ciudad Juarez, and Las Cruces, although there is visible growth of smaller urban settlements scattered along the Rio Grande River valley during the same analysis period. The proportion of native land cover fluctuates slightly depending on how much land is under crops each analysis year, but there is a decreasing agricultural land cover trend suggesting that land from this sector is being lost to urban development. This analysis can be useful in planning to protect the environment, preparing for growth in infrastructure such as schools, increased traffic demands, and monitoring availability of resources such as groundwater as the urban population grows.

Reproductive health and sexual violence among urban American Indian and Alaska Native young women: select findings from the National Survey of Family Growth (2002).

PubMed

Rutman, Shira; Taualii, Maile; Ned, Dena; Tetrick, Crystal

2012-12-01

Existing data on American Indians and Alaska Natives (AI/ANs) has indicated high rates of unintended pregnancy, high-risk sexual behavior, and experiences of sexual violence. This study from the first analysis to examine AI/ANs and the urban AI/AN subgroup in the National Survey of Family Growth (NSFG) reports new findings of reproductive health and sexual violence among urban AI/AN young women. We examined 2002 NSFG data on urban AI/AN women ages 15-24 years for pregnancies/births, unintended pregnancy, sexual initiation and contraceptive use. We also examined non-voluntary first sexual intercourse among urban AI/AN women ages 18-44 years. Prevalence estimates and 95 % confidence intervals were calculated. Findings include prevalence rates of risk factors among urban AI/AN women ages 15-24 years including unprotected first sex (38 %), first sex with much older partners (36 %), three or more pregnancies (13 %) and births (5 %) and unintended pregnancies (26 %). Seventeen percent of urban AI/ANs ages 18-44 years reported experiencing non-voluntary first sex. Sixty-one percent of urban AI/AN women ages 15-24 years were not using any method of contraception. Current contraceptive methods among those using a method included: injections/implants (23 %), contraceptive pills (32 %) and condoms (25 %). Findings describe reproductive health risk factors among young urban AI/AN women and highlight the need for enhanced surveillance on these issues. Those working to improve AI/AN health need these data to guide programming and identify resources for implementing and evaluating strategies that address risk factors for this overlooked population.

The effectiveness of conservation interventions to overcome the urban-environmental paradox.

PubMed

McDonald, Robert I

2015-10-01

Globally, urbanization is rapidly growing cities and towns at a historically unprecedented rate, and this rapid urban growth is influencing many facets of the environment. This paper reviews the effectiveness of conservation interventions that are designed to increase urban sustainability. It presents evidence for an apparent urban-environmental paradox: while the process of urban growth converts natural habitat to other land covers and degrades natural resources and ecosystem function, the increase in human population can increase demand for natural resources and ecosystem services. The fundamental problem that many conservation interventions try to address is that most facets of the environment are common or public goods, and are hence undervalued in decision making (market failure). The paper presents a threefold classification of conservation interventions in cities: conservation in the city (protecting biodiversity), conservation by the city (reducing per capita resource and energy use), and conservation for cities (projects that maintain or enhance ecosystem services). It ends by discussing methods for spatially targeting conservation interventions of all three types and for quantifying the effectiveness of interventions retrospectively. © 2015 New York Academy of Sciences.

BUDEM: an urban growth simulation model using CA for Beijing metropolitan area

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Long, Ying; Shen, Zhenjiang; Du, Liqun; Mao, Qizhi; Gao, Zhanping

2008-10-01

It is in great need of identifying the future urban form of Beijing, which faces challenges of rapid growth in urban development projects implemented in Beijing. We develop Beijing Urban Developing Model (BUDEM in short) to support urban planning and corresponding policies evaluation. BUDEM is the spatio-temporal dynamic model for simulating urban growth in Beijing metropolitan area, using cellular automata (CA) and Multi-agent system (MAS) approaches. In this phase, the computer simulation using CA in Beijing metropolitan area is conducted, which attempts to provide a premise of urban activities including different kinds of urban development projects for industrial plants, shopping facilities, houses. In the paper, concept model of BUDEM is introduced, which is established basing on prevalent urban growth theories. The method integrating logistic regression and MonoLoop is used to retrieve weights in the transition rule by MCE. After model sensibility analysis, we apply BUDEM into three aspects of urban planning practices: (1) Identifying urban growth mechanism in various historical phases since 1986; (2) Identifying urban growth policies needed to implement desired urban form (BEIJING2020), namely planned urban form; (3) Simulating urban growth scenarios of 2049 (BEIJING2049) basing on the urban form and parameter set of BEIJING2020.

Effects on the medical revenue of comprehensive pricing reform in Chinese urban public hospitals after removing drug markups: case of Nanjing.

PubMed

Tang, Wenxi; Xie, Jing; Lu, Yijuan; Liu, Qizhi; Malone, Daniel; Ma, Aixia

2018-04-01

The State Council of China requires that all urban public hospitals must eliminate drug markups by September 2017, and that hospital drugs must be sold at the purchase price. Nanjing-one of the first provincial capital cities to implement the reform-is studied to evaluate the effects of the comprehensive reform on drug prices in public hospitals, and to explore differential compensation plans. Sixteen hospitals were selected, and financial data were collected over the 48-month period before the reform and for 12 months after the reform. An analysis was carried out using a simple linear interrupted time series model. The average difference ratio of drug surplus fell 13.39% after the reform, and the drug markups were basically eliminated. Revenue from medical services showed a net growth of 28.25%. The overall compensation received from government financial budget and medical service revenue growth was 103.69% for the loss from policy-permitted 15% markup sales, and 116.48% for the net loss. However, there were large differences in compensation levels at different hospitals, ranging from -21.92% to 413.74% by medical services revenue growth, causing the combined rate of both financial and service compensation to vary from 28.87-413.74%, There was a significant positive correlation between the services compensation rate and the proportion of medical service revenue (p < .001), and the compensation rate increased by 8% for every 1% increase in the proportion of services revenue. Nanjing's pricing and compensation reform has basically achieved the policy targets of eliminating the drug markups, promoting the growth of medical services revenue, and adjusting the structure of medical revenue. However, the growth rate of service revenue of hospitals varied significantly from one another. Nanjing's reform represents successful pricing and compensation reform in Chinese urban public hospitals. It is recommended that a differentiated and dynamic compensation plan should be established in accordance with the revenue structure of different hospitals.

Urban Expansion: a Geo-Spatial Approach for Temporal Monitoring of Loss of Agricultural Land

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sumari, N. S.; Shao, Z.; Huang, M.; Sanga, C. A.; Van Genderen, J. L.

2017-09-01

This paper presents some preliminary results from research on monitoring the urban growth of Shenzhen in China. Agriculture is still the pillar of national economies in many countries including China. Thus, agriculture contributes to population growth. Population growth follows either exponential or logistic growth models. These models can be examined using a time-series of geospatial data, mainly historical earth observation imagery from satellites such as LANDSAT. Such multitemporal data may provide insights into settlement analysis as well as on population dynamics and hence, quantify the loss of agricultural land. In this study, LANDSAT data of ten dates, at approximately five yearly intervals from 1977 to 2017 were used. The remote sensing techniques used for analysis of data for 40 years were image selection, then followed by geometric and radiometric corrections and mosaicking. Also, classification, remote sensing image fusion, and change detection methods were used. This research extracted the information on the amount, direction, and speed of urbanization, and hence, the number of hectares of agricultural land lost due to urban expansion. Several specific elements were used in the descriptive model of landscape changes and population dynamics of the city of Shenzhen in China. These elements are: i) quantify the urban changes, from a small town (37.000 people in the early 1970's) to the megalopolis of around 20 million habitants today. ii) Examining the rate of urban extension on the loss of agricultural landscape and population growth. iii) The loss of food production was analysed against the economic growth in the region. iv) The aspects of loss of agricultural land, area of built-up urban land, and increase in population are studied quantitatively, by the temporal analysis of earth observation geospatial data. The experimental results from this study show that the proposed method is effective in determining loss of agricultural land in any city due to urbanization. It can be used by town planner and other stakeholders such as land surveyors and agriculture experts to mitigate the mushrooming of unplanned settlements in many town / villages and loss of land for agriculture which might cause problems in food security.

Quantifying urban land cover change between 2001 and 2006 in the Gulf of Mexico region

USGS Publications Warehouse

Xian, George Z.; Homer, Collin G.; Bunde, Brett; Danielson, Patrick; Dewitz, Jon; Fry, Joyce; Pu, Ruiliang

2012-01-01

We estimated urbanization rates (2001–2006) in the Gulf of Mexico region using the National Land Cover Database (NLCD) 2001 and 2006 impervious surface products. An improved method was used to update the NLCD impervious surface product in 2006 and associated land cover transition between 2001 and 2006. Our estimation reveals that impervious surface increased 416 km2 with a growth rate of 5.8% between 2001 and 2006. Approximately 1110.1 km2 of non-urban lands were converted into urban land, resulting in a 3.2% increase in the region. Hay/pasture, woody wetland, and evergreen forest represented the three most common land cover classes that transitioned to urban. Among these land cover transitions, more than 50% of the urbanization occurred within 50 km of the coast. Our analysis shows that the close-to-coast land cover transition trend, especially within 10 km off the coast, potentially imposes substantial long-term impacts on regional landscape and ecological conditions.

Variation in photosynthesis and stomatal conductance among red maple (Acer rubrum) urban planted cultivars and wildtype trees in the southeastern United States.

PubMed

Lahr, Eleanor C; Dunn, Robert R; Frank, Steven D

2018-01-01

Photosynthesis is a fundamental process that trees perform over fluctuating environmental conditions. This study of red maple (Acer rubrum L.) characterizes photosynthesis, stomatal conductance, and water use efficiency in planted cultivars relative to wildtype trees. Red maple is common in cities, yet there is little understanding of how physiological processes affect the long-term growth, condition, and ecosystem services provided by urban trees. In the first year of our study, we measured leaf-level gas exchange and performed short-term temperature curves on urban planted cultivars and on suburban and rural wildtype trees. In the second year, we compared urban planted cultivars and urban wildtype trees. In the first year, urban planted trees had higher maximum rates of photosynthesis and higher overall rates of photosynthesis and stomatal conductance throughout the summer, relative to suburban or rural wildtype trees. Urban planted trees again had higher maximum rates of photosynthesis in the second year. However, urban wildtype trees had higher water use efficiency as air temperatures increased and similar overall rates of photosynthesis, relative to cultivars, in mid and late summer. Our results show that physiological differences between cultivars and wildtype trees may relate to differences in their genetic background and their responses to local environmental conditions, contingent on the identity of the horticultural variety. Overall, our results suggest that wildtype trees should be considered for some urban locations, and our study is valuable in demonstrating how site type and tree type can inform tree planting strategies and improve long-term urban forest sustainability.

Comparison of Carbon Sequestration Rates and Energy Balance of Turf in the Denver Urban Ecosystem and an Adjacent Native Grassland

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Thienelt, T. S.; Anderson, D. E.; Powell, K. M.

2011-12-01

Urban ecosystems are currently characterized by rapid growth, are expected to continually expand and, thus, represent an important driver of land use change. A significant component of urban ecosystems is lawns, potentially the single largest irrigated "crop" in the U.S. Beginning in March of 2011 (ahead of the growing season), eddy covariance measurements of net carbon exchange and evapotranspiration along with energy balance fluxes were conducted for a well-watered, fertilized lawn (rye-bluegrass-mix) in metropolitan Denver and for a nearby tallgrass prairie (big bluestem, switchgrass, cheatgrass, blue grama). Due to the semi-arid climate conditions of the Denver region, differences in management (i.e., irrigation and fertilization) are expected to have a discernible impact on ecosystem productivity and thus on carbon sequestration rates, evapotranspiration, and the sensible and latent heat partitioning of the energy balance. By mid-July, preliminary data indicated that cumulative evapotranspiration was approximately 270 mm and 170 mm for urban and native grasslands, respectively, although cumulative carbon sequestration at that time was similar for both (approximately 40 mg/m2). However, the pattern of carbon exchange differed between the grasslands. Both sites showed daily net uptake of carbon starting in late May, but the urban lawn displayed greater diurnal variability as well as greater uptake rates in general, especially following fertilization in mid-June. In contrast, the trend of carbon uptake at the prairie site was occasionally reversed following strong convective precipitation events, resulting in a temporary net release of carbon. The continuing acquisition of data and investigation of these relations will help us assess the potential impact of urban growth on regional carbon sequestration.

The New Sectionalism: I. Metropolis Without Growth

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Alonso, William

1978-01-01

This article suggests that there are three principal sources of metropolitan population decline: the declining birth rate, the reversal of rural-to-urban migration, and inter-metropolitan migration. (Author/AM)

The Expansion of Education: A Brazilian Case Study.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Plank, David N.

1987-01-01

Analysis of educational expansion in Brazil between 1940 and 1980 indicates that, in most circumstances, enrollment rates were positively related to urbanization, diversification of the occupational structure, and aggregate economic growth. States experiencing heavy in-migration showed a negative effect of migration on enrollment rates during…

Observations of Urban Heat Island Mitigation in California Coastal Cities due to a Sea Breeze Induced Coastal-Cooling ``REVERSE-REACTION'' to Global Warming

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bornstein, R. D.; Lebassi, B.; Gonzalez, J.

2010-12-01

The study evaluated long-term (1948-2005) air temperatures at over 300 urban and rural sites in California (CA) during summer (June-August, JJA). The aggregate CA results showed asymmetric warming, as daily min temperatures increased faster than daily max temperatures. The spatial distributions of daily max temperatures in the heavily urbanized South Coast and San Francisco Bay Area air basins, however, exhibited a complex pattern, with cooling at low-elevation (mainly urban) coastal-areas and warming at (mainly rural) inland areas. Previous studies have suggested that cooling summer max temperatures in CA were due to increased irrigation, coastal upwelling, or cloud cover. The current hypothesis, however, is that this temperature pattern arises from a “reverse-reaction” to greenhouse gas (GHG) induced global-warming. In this hypothesis, the global warming of inland areas resulted in an increased (cooling) sea breeze activity in coastal areas. That daytime summer coastal cooling was seen in coastal urban areas implies that urban heat island (UHI) warming was weaker than the reverse-reaction sea breeze cooling; if there was no UHI effect, then the cooling would have been even stronger. Analysis of daytime summer max temperatures at four adjacent pairs of urban and rural sites near the inland cooling-warming boundary, however, showed that the rural sites experienced cooling, while the urban sites showed warming due to UHI development. The rate of heat island growth was estimated as the sum of each urban warming rate and the absolute magnitude of the concurrent adjacent rural cooling rate. Values ranged from 0.12 to 0.55 K decade-1, and were proportional to changes in urban population and urban extent. As Sacramento, Modesto, Stockton, and San José have grown in aerial extent (21 to 59%) and population (40 to 118%), part of the observed increased JJA max values could be due to increased daytime UHI-intensity. Without UHI effects, the currently observed JJA SFBA coastal-cooling area might have expanded to include these sites, as the first three are adjacent to rural airport sites that showed cooling max-values due to increased marine influences. In addition, all urbanized sites with decreasing max-values would probably show even larger cooling rates if UHI effects could be removed. Significant societal impacts may result from this observed reverse-reaction to GHG-warming. Possible beneficial effects (especially during periods of UHI growth) include decreased maximum: O3 levels, per-capita energy requirements for cooling, and human thermal-stress levels.

Urban Growth in Cairo 1965-98

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

2002-01-01

The population of the Cairo metropolitan area has increased from less than 6 million in 1965 when the first picture was taken, to more than 10 million in 1998 (United Nations Population Division, World Urbanization Prospects, the 1999 revision). Population densities within the city are some of the highest in the world and the urban area has doubled to more than 400 square km during that period. Extraordinary rates of population growth are expected to continue, with a predicted population of around 14 million by 2015. Images Gem05-1-45778 and STS088-739-91 were provided by the Earth Sciences and Image Analysis Laboratory at Johnson Space Center. Additional images taken by astronauts and cosmonauts can be viewed at the NASA-JSC Gateway to Astronaut Photography of Earth.

Progress towards the child mortality millennium development goal in urban sub-Saharan Africa: the dynamics of population growth, immunization, and access to clean water.

PubMed

Fotso, Jean-Christophe; Ezeh, Alex Chika; Madise, Nyovani Janet; Ciera, James

2007-08-28

Improvements in child survival have been very poor in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA). Since the 1990 s, declines in child mortality have reversed in many countries in the region, while in others, they have either slowed or stalled, making it improbable that the target of reducing child mortality by two thirds by 2015 will be reached. This paper highlights the implications of urban population growth and access to health and social services on progress in achieving MDG 4. Specifically, it examines trends in childhood mortality in SSA in relation to urban population growth, vaccination coverage and access to safe drinking water. Correlation methods are used to analyze national-level data from the Demographic and Health Surveys and from the United Nations. The analysis is complemented by case studies on intra-urban health differences in Kenya and Zambia. Only five of the 22 countries included in the study have recorded declines in urban child mortality that are in line with the MDG target of about 4% per year; five others have recorded an increase; and the 12 remaining countries witnessed only minimal decline. More rapid rate of urban population growth is associated with negative trend in access to safe drinking water and in vaccination coverage, and ultimately to increasing or timid declines in child mortality. There is evidence of intra-urban disparities in child health in some countries like Kenya and Zambia. Failing to appropriately target the growing sub-group of the urban poor and improve their living conditions and health status - which is an MDG target itself - may result in lack of improvement on national indicators of health. Sustained expansion of potable water supplies and vaccination coverage among the disadvantaged urban dwellers should be given priority in the efforts to achieve the child mortality MDG in SSA.

Decoupling emissions of greenhouse gas, urbanization, energy and income: analysis from the economy of China.

PubMed

Wang, Tianqiong; Riti, Joshua Sunday; Shu, Yang

2018-05-08

The adoption and ratification of relevant policies, particularly the household enrolment system metamorphosis in China, led to rising urbanization growth. As the leading developing economy, China has experienced a drastic and rapid increase in the rate of urbanization, energy use, economic growth and greenhouse gas (GHG) pollution for the past 30 years. The knowledge of the dynamic interrelationships among these trends has a plethora of implications ranging from demographic, energy, and environmental and sustainable development policies. This study analyzes the role of urbanization in decoupling GHG emissions, energy, and income in China while considering the critical contribution of energy use. As a contribution to the extant body of literature, the present research introduces a new phenomenon called "the environmental urbanization Kuznets curve" (EUKC), which shows that at the early stage of urbanization, the environment degrades however, after a threshold point the technique effects surface and environmental degradation reduces with rise in urbanization. Applying the autoregressive distributed lag model and the vector error correction model, the paper finds the presence of inverted U-shaped curve between urbanization and GHG emission of CO 2 , while the same hypothesis cannot be found between income and GHG emission of CO 2 . Energy use in all the models contributes to GHG emission of CO 2 . In decoupling greenhouse gas emissions, urbanization, energy, and income, articulated and well-implemented energy and urbanization policies should be considered.

Detection of Urban-Induced Rainfall Anomalies in Houston, Texas: A New Perspective from Space

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Shepherd, J. Marshall; Burian, Steven J.; Starr, David OC. (Technical Monitor)

2002-01-01

Urban heat islands (UHIs) are caused by the heat-retaining properties of surfaces usually found in urban cities like asphalt and concrete. The UHI can typically be observed on the evening TV weather map as warmer temperatures over the downtown of major cities and cooler temperatures in the suburbs and surrounding rural areas. The UHI has now become a widely acknowledged, observed, and researched phenomenon because of its broad environmental and societal implications. Interest in the UHI will intensify in the future as existing urban areas expand and rural areas urbanize. By the year 2025, more than 60% of the world's population will live in cities, with higher percentages expected in developed nations. The urban growth rate in the United States, for example, is estimated to be 12.5%, and the recent 2000 Census found that more than 80% of the population currently lives in urban areas. Furthermore, the U.S. population is not only growing but is tending to concentrate more in urban areas within the environmentally sensitive coastal zones. Urban growth creates unique and often contentious issues for policymakers related to land use zoning, transportation planning, agricultural production, housing and development, pollution, and natural resources protection. Urban expansion and its associated UHIs also have measurable impacts on weather and climate processes. The UHI has been documented to affect local and regional temperature, wind patterns, and air quality.

Detection of Urban-Induced Rainfall Anomalies in a Major Coastal City

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Shepherd, J. Marshall; Burian, Steven J.

2002-01-01

Urban heat islands (UHIs) are caused by the heat-retaining properties of surfaces usually found in urban cities like asphalt and concrete. The UHI can typically be observed on the evening TV weather map as warmer temperatures over the downtown of major cities and cooler temperatures in the suburbs and surrounding rural areas. The UHI has now become a widely acknowledged, observed, and researched phenomenon because of its broad environmental and societal implications. Interest in the UHI will intensify in the future as existing urban areas expand and rural areas urbanize. By the year 2025, more than 60% of the world s population will live in cities, with higher percentages expected in developed nations. The urban growth rate in the United States, for example, is estimated to be 12.5%, and the recent 2000 Census found that more than 80% of the population currently lives in urban areas. Furthermore, the U.S. population is not only growing but is tending to concentrate more in urban areas within the environmentally sensitive coastal zones. Urban growth creates unique and often contentious issues for policymakers related to land use zoning, transportation planning, agricultural production, housing and development, pollution, and natural resources protection. Urban expansion and its associated TJHIs also have measurable impacts on weather and climate processes. The UHI has been documented to affect local and regional temperature, wind patterns, and air quality

A tale of two towns: black and white municipalities respond to urban growth in the South Carolina lowcountry

Treesearch

Cassandra Y. Johnson; Myron F. Floyd

2006-01-01

Sea Islands off the South Carolina coast have experienced rapid development rates in the past half century. This trend is now impacting the rural Lowcountry (coastal) near Charleston, SC. A better understanding of traditional rural communities' responses to expanding urbanization is critical because of the obvious threat to the natural environment in rural areas...

Resurrecting social infrastructure as a determinant of urban tuberculosis control in Delhi, India

PubMed Central

2014-01-01

Background The key to universal coverage in tuberculosis (TB) management lies in community participation and empowerment of the population. Social infrastructure development generates social capital and addresses the crucial social determinants of TB, thereby improving program performance. Recently, there has been renewed interest in the concept of social infrastructure development for TB control in developing countries. This study aims to revive this concept and highlight the fact that documentation on ways to operationalize urban TB control is required from a holistic development perspective. Further, it explains how development of social infrastructure impacts health and development outcomes, especially with respect to TB in urban settings. Methods A wide range of published Government records pertaining to social development parameters and TB program surveillance, between 2001 and 2011 in Delhi, were studied. Social infrastructure development parameters like human development index along with other indicators reflecting patient profile and habitation in urban settings were selected as social determinants of TB. These include adult literacy rates, per capita income, net migration rates, percentage growth in slum population, and percentage of urban population living in one-room dwelling units. The impact of the Revised National Tuberculosis Control Program on TB incidence was assessed as an annual decline in new TB cases notified under the program. Univariate linear regression was employed to examine the interrelationship between social development parameters and TB program outcomes. Results The decade saw a significant growth in most of the social development parameters in the State. TB program performance showed 46% increment in lives saved among all types of TB cases per 100,000 population. The 7% reduction in new TB case notifications from the year 2001 to 2011, translates to a logarithmic decline of 5.4 new TB cases per 100,000 population. Except per capita income, literacy, and net migration rates, other social determinants showed significant correlation with decline in new TB cases per 100,000 population. Conclusions Social infrastructure development leads to social capital generation which engenders positive growth in TB program outcomes. Strategies which promote social infrastructure development should find adequate weightage in the overall policy framework for urban TB control in developing countries. PMID:24438431

Resurrecting social infrastructure as a determinant of urban tuberculosis control in Delhi, India.

PubMed

Chandra, Shivani; Sharma, Nandini; Joshi, Kulanand; Aggarwal, Nishi; Kannan, Anjur Tupil

2014-01-17

The key to universal coverage in tuberculosis (TB) management lies in community participation and empowerment of the population. Social infrastructure development generates social capital and addresses the crucial social determinants of TB, thereby improving program performance. Recently, there has been renewed interest in the concept of social infrastructure development for TB control in developing countries. This study aims to revive this concept and highlight the fact that documentation on ways to operationalize urban TB control is required from a holistic development perspective. Further, it explains how development of social infrastructure impacts health and development outcomes, especially with respect to TB in urban settings. A wide range of published Government records pertaining to social development parameters and TB program surveillance, between 2001 and 2011 in Delhi, were studied. Social infrastructure development parameters like human development index along with other indicators reflecting patient profile and habitation in urban settings were selected as social determinants of TB. These include adult literacy rates, per capita income, net migration rates, percentage growth in slum population, and percentage of urban population living in one-room dwelling units. The impact of the Revised National Tuberculosis Control Program on TB incidence was assessed as an annual decline in new TB cases notified under the program. Univariate linear regression was employed to examine the interrelationship between social development parameters and TB program outcomes. The decade saw a significant growth in most of the social development parameters in the State. TB program performance showed 46% increment in lives saved among all types of TB cases per 100,000 population. The 7% reduction in new TB case notifications from the year 2001 to 2011, translates to a logarithmic decline of 5.4 new TB cases per 100,000 population. Except per capita income, literacy, and net migration rates, other social determinants showed significant correlation with decline in new TB cases per 100,000 population. Social infrastructure development leads to social capital generation which engenders positive growth in TB program outcomes. Strategies which promote social infrastructure development should find adequate weightage in the overall policy framework for urban TB control in developing countries.

[Demographic influence on economic stability: the United States experience].

PubMed

Easterlin, R A; Wachter, M; Wachter, S M

1978-01-01

Up to the 1930s the international migration rate into the U.S. was very high, while birth and mortality rates had little variation; migration was, therefore, the principal responsible for population growth rate. Migration cycles were induced by economic conditions, and had, in their turn, important effects on economic feedback. The growing of urban areas, i.e., accelerated demand for new homes and urban services in general, prolonged the economic expansion. After World War 2 a new period opened in the relation between demographic and economic cycles. At the end of the 1950s the U.S. experienced a considerable growth in the number of people between 15-29, due to corresponding birth rate increase, which initiated around 1940. This marked difference in the relative number of young adults, or manpower, resulted in an economic situation relatively unfavorable. For the future a decrease in the relative number of young adults is expected, reflecting the decrease in birth rate experienced around 1960. If the U.S. should experience a new "baby boom" in the next few decades, radical changes in the demographic composition of manpower will have to be expected.

Urban Boundary Extraction and Urban Sprawl Measurement Using High-Resolution Remote Sensing Images: a Case Study of China's Provincial

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, H.; Ning, X.; Zhang, H.; Liu, Y.; Yu, F.

2018-04-01

Urban boundary is an important indicator for urban sprawl analysis. However, methods of urban boundary extraction were inconsistent, and construction land or urban impervious surfaces was usually used to represent urban areas with coarse-resolution images, resulting in lower precision and incomparable urban boundary products. To solve above problems, a semi-automatic method of urban boundary extraction was proposed by using high-resolution image and geographic information data. Urban landscape and form characteristics, geographical knowledge were combined to generate a series of standardized rules for urban boundary extraction. Urban boundaries of China's 31 provincial capitals in year 2000, 2005, 2010 and 2015 were extracted with above-mentioned method. Compared with other two open urban boundary products, accuracy of urban boundary in this study was the highest. Urban boundary, together with other thematic data, were integrated to measure and analyse urban sprawl. Results showed that China's provincial capitals had undergone a rapid urbanization from year 2000 to 2015, with the area change from 6520 square kilometres to 12398 square kilometres. Urban area of provincial capital had a remarkable region difference and a high degree of concentration. Urban land became more intensive in general. Urban sprawl rate showed inharmonious with population growth rate. About sixty percent of the new urban areas came from cultivated land. The paper provided a consistent method of urban boundary extraction and urban sprawl measurement using high-resolution remote sensing images. The result of urban sprawl of China's provincial capital provided valuable urbanization information for government and public.

Status of NASA Satellite, Field Observations, and Numerical Modeling Addressing the Impact of Urbanization on Short and Long Term Precipitation Variability

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Shepherd, J. Marshall; Manyin, Michael; Burian, Steve; Garza, Carlos

2004-01-01

Howard (1833a) made the first documented observation of a temperature difference between an urban area and its rural environment. Manley (1958) termed this contrast the "urban heat island (UHI)". The UHI has now become a widely acknowledged, observed, and researched phenomenon because of its broad implications. It is estimated that by the year 2025, 60% of the world's population will live in cities (UNFP, 1999). In the United States, the current urban growth rate is approximately 12.5%, with 80% currently living in urban areas. As cities continue to grow, urban sprawl creates unique problems related to land use, transportation, agriculture, housing, pollution, and development for policymakers. Urban expansion and its associated urban heat islands also have measurable impacts on weather and climate processes.

The population in China’s earthquake-prone areas has increased by over 32 million along with rapid urbanization

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

He, Chunyang; Huang, Qingxu; Dou, Yinyin; Tu, Wei; Liu, Jifu

2016-07-01

Accurate assessments of the population exposed to seismic hazard are crucial in seismic risk mapping. Recent rapid urbanization in China has resulted in substantial changes in the size and structure of the population exposed to seismic hazard. Using the latest population census data and seismic maps, this work investigated spatiotemporal changes in the exposure of the population in the most seismically hazardous areas (MSHAs) in China from 1990 to 2010. In the context of rapid urbanization and massive rural-to-urban migration, nearly one-tenth of the Chinese population in 2010 lived in MSHAs. From 1990 to 2010, the MSHA population increased by 32.53 million at a significantly higher rate of change (33.6%) than the national average rate (17.7%). The elderly population in MSHAs increased by 81.4%, which is much higher than the group’s national growth rate of 58.9%. Greater attention should be paid to the demographic changes in earthquake-prone areas in China.

Prediction of Land use changes using CA in GIS Environment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kiavarz Moghaddam, H.; Samadzadegan, F.

2009-04-01

Urban growth is a typical self-organized system that results from the interaction between three defined systems; developed urban system, natural non-urban system and planned urban system. Urban growth simulation for an artificial city is carried out first. It evaluates a number of urban sprawl parameters including the size and shape of neighborhood besides testing different types of constraints on urban growth simulation. The results indicate that circular-type neighborhood shows smoother but faster urban growth as compared to nine-cell Moore neighborhood. Cellular Automata is proved to be very efficient in simulating the urban growth simulation over time. The strength of this technology comes from the ability of urban modeler to implement the growth simulation model, evaluating the results and presenting the output simulation results in visual interpretable environment. Artificial city simulation model provides an excellent environment to test a number of simulation parameters such as neighborhood influence on growth results and constraints role in driving the urban growth .Also, CA rules definition is critical stage in simulating the urban growth pattern in a close manner to reality. CA urban growth simulation and prediction of Tehran over the last four decades succeeds to simulate specified tested growth years at a high accuracy level. Some real data layer have been used in the CA simulation training phase such as 1995 while others used for testing the prediction results such as 2002. Tuning the CA growth rules is important through comparing the simulated images with the real data to obtain feedback. An important notice is that CA rules need also to be modified over time to adapt to the urban growth pattern. The evaluation method used on region basis has its advantage in covering the spatial distribution component of the urban growth process. Next step includes running the developed CA simulation over classified raster data for three years in a developed ArcGIS extention. A set of crisp rules are defined and calibrated based on real urban growth pattern. Uncertainty analysis is performed to evaluate the accuracy of the simulated results as compared to the historical real data. Evaluation shows promising results represented by the high average accuracies achieved. The average accuracy for the predicted growth images 1964 and 2002 is over 80 %. Modifying CA growth rules over time to match the growth pattern changes is important to obtain accurate simulation. This modification is based on the urban growth relationship for Tehran over time as can be seen in the historical raster data. The feedback obtained from comparing the simulated and real data is crucial in identifying the optimal set of CA rules for reliable simulation and calibrating growth steps.

The Potential Role of Urban Forests in Removing Nutrients from Stormwater.

PubMed

Denman, E C; May, P B; Moore, G M

2016-01-01

Biofiltration systems can be used to improve the quality of stormwater by treating runoff using plants grown in a moderately permeable soil. Most biofilters use herbaceous species, but in highly urbanized locations, such as streets, trees may be a more suitable vegetation. Biofilters that use urban woody vegetation are less studied. This experiment investigated the use of four street tree species [ Schauer, (R. Br.) Peter G. Wilson & J.T. Waterh., (Sm.) Colvill ex Sweet, and L.] and an unplanted control in model biofilters. All four tree species are used in urban landscapes in southern Australia and were chosen to investigate potential species differences in biofiltration systems. The trees were grown in mesocosms as a randomized block factorial design in soils with three saturated hydraulic conductivity rates (4, 95, and 170 mm h). The trees were regularly flooded with mains water (tap water) or artificial stormwater. Tree growth and nutrient removal performance of the systems were investigated over 13 mo. All four species grew well in all three soils, including one chosen for its low, and potentially growth-limiting, drainage rate. Tree growth increased significantly, except for , when flooded with stormwater. Unplanted controls were a source of nutrients; however, the presence of trees reduced oxidized nitrogen and filterable reactive phosphorus concentrations in leachate. There was little effect of species on the removal of nutrients from stormwater. Trees have the potential to be effective elements in urban biofiltration systems, but further field-level evaluation of these systems is required to fully assess this potential. Copyright © by the American Society of Agronomy, Crop Science Society of America, and Soil Science Society of America, Inc.

Effects of sea-level rise and anthropogenic development on priority bird species habitats in coastal Georgia, USA.

PubMed

Brittain, Ross A; Craft, Christopher B

2012-02-01

We modeled changes in area of five habitats, tidal-freshwater forest, salt marsh, maritime shrub-scrub (shrub), maritime broadleaf forest (oak) and maritime narrowleaf (pine) forest, in coastal Georgia, USA, to evaluate how simultaneous habitat loss due to predicted changes in sea level rise (SLR) and urban development will affect priority bird species of the south Atlantic coastal plain by 2100. Development rates, based on regional growth plans, were modeled at 1% and 2.5% annual urban growth, while SLR rates, based on the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change's A1B mean and maximum scenarios, were modeled at 52 cm and 82 cm, respectively. SLR most greatly affected the shrub habitat with predicted losses of 35-43%. Salt marsh and tidal forest also were predicted to lose considerable area to SLR (20-45 and 23-35%, respectively), whereas oak and pine forests had lesser impact from SLR, 18-22% and 11-15%, respectively. Urban development resulted in losses of considerable pine (48-49%) and oak (53-55%) habitat with lesser loss of shrub habitat (21-24%). Under maximum SLR and urban growth, shrub habitat may lose up to 59-64% compared to as much as 62-65% pine forest and 74-75% oak forest. Conservation efforts should focus on protection of shrub habitat because of its small area relative to other terrestrial habitats and use by Painted Buntings (Passerina ciris), a Partners In Flight (PIF) extremely high priority species. Tidal forests also deserve protection because they are a likely refuge for forest species, such as Northern Parula and Acadian Flycatcher, with the decline of oak and pine forests due to urban development.

Appraisal of rural-urban migration determinants: a case study of Constantine, Algeria.

PubMed

Boukhemis, K; Zeghiche, A

1988-02-01

Despite some impressive achievements, Algerian planning strategy has neglected the spatial aspect of development, which has accelerated interregional migration and consequently has reinforced existing urban problems: 1) overcrowding, 2) the housing crisis, 3) unemployment, and 4) inadequate infrastructure services. It has become obvious that policy makers must take into account the major role of migration in balanced economic growth, and yet knowledge of migration patterns and processes is very limited in Algeria. Constantine's geographic location and role as a regional metropolis played an essential part in shaping migration flows. Up to 1966, Constantine's disproportionate growth was largely the result of massive migration. Since then, there has been a noticeable slowdown in migration, and natural increase has become the largest component of urban growth. This change reflects the government's development policies. Migration flows to Constantine have been deflected to the new industrial poles, which offer greater employment opportunities. More knowledge of migration is essential for an understanding of the factors that determine the rate and direction of migration flows.

[The urbanized societies of Latin America and the Caribbean: some dimensions and observations].

PubMed

Ebanks, G E

1993-06-01

A demographic perspective on urbanization patterns in Latin America and the Caribbean is provided. The level and rate of urbanization and the hierarchies of urban places are considered, along with the determinants and consequences of these trends. Latin America and the Caribbean are the most urbanized of the developing regions, with almost 70% of the population classified as urban in 1991. Most Latin American and Caribbean countries have rural populations capable of maintaining continuous growth of the urban population for some time through internal migration and reclassification of localities. Latin American societies are urban in nature, and it is unlikely that decentralization and deconcentration policies will have significant repercussions. The Latin American urban population is estimated to have increased from 164 million in 1970 to 320 million in 1990, while the rural population increased from 122 to 128 million in the same years. Most governments of the region are preoccupied by the size of the urban population. There are too many urban residents to be absorbed in productive activities, but all require public services generally financed through taxation. The small tax bases result in frequent decisions to finance services through deficit spending. The size of the population and the level of urbanization may not be the principal agents of ecological deterioration or the greatest obstacles to development, but they play a significant role in these problems. Incorporating millions of urban residents into the productive sector of the economy is an important challenge for the development of these societies. The urban population in Latin America and the Caribbean is expected to continue growing at significant rates until well into the next century. In most countries of the region, internal migration accounted for 30-40% of urban growth between 1950 and 1970, but its contribution loses importance as the level of urbanization exceeds 70% or so. The number of urban places as well as the sizes of cities have been increasing. From the end of World War II to the 1970s, the principal urban centers grew most rapidly, but in the 1980s and early 1990s the medium sized cities experienced the most rapid growth. Latin America and the Caribbean are a region of high urban primacy, in which one city, generally the capital, is several times larger than the second city or cities. Mexico City, Sao Paulo, Buenos Aires, and Rio de Janeiro are megalopolises. Latin America's population is excessively concentrated in three ways: into urban localities, into a small area of the national territory, and into megalopolises. Excessive concentration is associated with severe environmental problems. Most have possible solutions, but costs will be high and great political will is required. The quality of life is poor for a large segment of urban dwellers and poverty is pervasive. Urgent action is needed to improve the quality of life and protect the environment.

The balance of planting and mortality in a street tree population

Treesearch

Lara A. Roman; John J. Battles; Joe R. McBride

2013-01-01

Street trees have aesthetic, environmental, human health, and economic benefits in urban ecosystems. Street tree populations are constructed by cycles of planting, growth, death, removal and replacement. The goals of this study were to understand how tree mortality and planting rates affect net population growth, evaluate the shape of the mortality curve, and assess...

The Economic Base of Recent Population Growth in Nonmetropolitan Settings.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Long, Larry; DeAre, Diana

In the late 1970s both jobs and population were growing more rapidly outside metropolitan areas. As a group, nonmetropolitan counties not adjacent to a metropolitan area experienced a faster rate of employment growth than metropolitan areas between 1975-79. Even in rural counties (no urban place of 2,500 or more) not adjacent to a metropolitan…

India's demographic snapshot, 1991.

PubMed

Bose, A

1991-12-01

Having presented the provisional results of the 1991 Census of India in tabular form, the author discusses the policy implication of the data. During the 1981-91 decade, India witnesses a 160.99 net increase in population, which brought the country's total population to an estimated 844.32 million. The annual growth rated during the decade was 2.1%. The author explains that these alarming population figures reflect the failure of the government's population program. The author warns that unless the Planning Commission develops new strategies, the upcoming 5-year plans. The author explains that the failure of family planning is due primarily to the low literacy rate -- especially the female literacy rate is 29% (and 25% among rural women). The author also discusses the problems of urbanization and the work force. During the past decade, cities grew at a somewhat slower rate than in previous decades, meaning that the absorptive capacity of the cities has gone down. Nonetheless, the urban population grew by 58 million during 10-year period. The urban infrastructure is virtually collapsing, with 30-50% of the urban population living in slums. The data also reveals the structural stagnation of the economy. The agricultural sector, which accounts for about 2/3 of the work force, registered only slight decreases during the decade, signifying a marginal shift from agriculture to nonagricultural activity. Furthermore, population growth has aggravated the unemployment problem. Finally, the author addresses the issue of the sex ratio (females/1000 males), which declined from 934 in 1981 to 929 in 1991, which indicates a continued prejudice against women.

Landscape urbanization and economic growth in China: positive feedbacks and sustainability dilemmas.

PubMed

Bai, Xuemei; Chen, Jing; Shi, Peijun

2012-01-03

Accelerating urbanization has been viewed as an important instrument for economic development and reducing regional income disparity in some developing countries, including China. Recent studies (Bloom et al. 2008) indicate that demographic urbanization level has no causal effect on economic growth. However, due to the varying and changing definition of urban population, the use of demographic indicators as a sole representing indicator for urbanization might be misleading. Here, we re-examine the causal relationship between urbanization and economic growth in Chinese cities and provinces in recent decades, using built-up areas as a landscape urbanization indicator. Our analysis shows that (1) larger cities, both in terms of population size and built-up area, and richer cities tend to gain more income, have larger built-up area expansion, and attract more population, than poorer cities or smaller cities; and (2) that there is a long-term bidirectional causality between urban built-up area expansion and GDP per capita at both city and provincial level, and a short-term bidirectional causality at provincial level, revealing a positive feedback between landscape urbanization and urban and regional economic growth in China. Our results suggest that urbanization, if measured by a landscape indicator, does have causal effect on economic growth in China, both within the city and with spillover effect to the region, and that urban land expansion is not only the consequences of economic growth in cities, but also drivers of such growth. The results also suggest that under its current economic growth model, it might be difficult for China to control urban expansion without sacrificing economic growth, and China's policy to stop the loss of agricultural land, for food security, might be challenged by its policy to promote economic growth through urbanization.

Landscape Urbanization and Economic Growth in China: Positive Feedbacks and Sustainability Dilemmas

PubMed Central

2011-01-01

Accelerating urbanization has been viewed as an important instrument for economic development and reducing regional income disparity in some developing countries, including China. Recent studies (Bloom et al. 2008) indicate that demographic urbanization level has no causal effect on economic growth. However, due to the varying and changing definition of urban population, the use of demographic indicators as a sole representing indicator for urbanization might be misleading. Here, we re-examine the causal relationship between urbanization and economic growth in Chinese cities and provinces in recent decades, using built-up areas as a landscape urbanization indicator. Our analysis shows that (1) larger cities, both in terms of population size and built-up area, and richer cities tend to gain more income, have larger built-up area expansion, and attract more population, than poorer cities or smaller cities; and (2) that there is a long-term bidirectional causality between urban built-up area expansion and GDP per capita at both city and provincial level, and a short-term bidirectional causality at provincial level, revealing a positive feedback between landscape urbanization and urban and regional economic growth in China. Our results suggest that urbanization, if measured by a landscape indicator, does have causal effect on economic growth in China, both within the city and with spillover effect to the region, and that urban land expansion is not only the consequences of economic growth in cities, but also drivers of such growth. The results also suggest that under its current economic growth model, it might be difficult for China to control urban expansion without sacrificing economic growth, and China’s policy to stop the loss of agricultural land, for food security, might be challenged by its policy to promote economic growth through urbanization. PMID:22103244

Monitoring Urban Land Cover/land Use Change in Algiers City Using Landsat Images (1987-2016)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bouchachi, B.; Zhong, Y.

2017-09-01

Monitoring the Urban Land Cover/Land Use change detection is important as one of the main driving forces of environmental change because Urbanization is the biggest changes in form of Land, resulting in a decrease in cultivated areas. Using remote sensing ability to solve land resources problems. The purpose of this research is to map the urban areas at different times to monitor and predict possible urban changes, were studied the annual growth urban land during the last 29 years in Algiers City. Improving the productiveness of long-term training in land mapping, were have developed an approach by the following steps: 1) pre-processing for improvement of image characteristics; 2) extract training sample candidates based on the developed methods; and 3) Derive maps and analyzed of Algiers City on an annual basis from 1987 to 2016 using a Supervised Classifier Support Vector Machine (SVMs). Our result shows that the strategy of urban land followed in the region of Algiers City, developed areas mostly were extended to East, West, and South of Central Regions. The urban growth rate is linked with National Office of Statistics data. Future studies are required to understand the impact of urban rapid lands on social, economy and environmental sustainability, it will also close the gap in data of urbanism available, especially on the lack of reliable data, environmental and urban planning for each municipality in Algiers, develop experimental models to predict future land changes with statistically significant confidence.

Driving factors of urban land growth in Guangzhou and its implications for sustainable development

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cui, Xuezhu; Li, Shaoying; Wang, Xuetong; Xue, Xiaolong

2018-04-01

Since 2000, China's urban land has expanded at a dramatic speed because of the country's rapid urbanization. The country has been experiencing unbalanced development between rural and urban areas, causing serious challenges such as agricultural security and land resources waste. Effectively evaluating the driving factors of urban land growth is essential for improving efficient land use management and sustainable urban development. This study established a principal component regression model based on eight indicators to identify their influences on urban land growth in Guangzhou. The results provided a grouping analysis of the driving factors, and found that economic growth, urban population, and transportation development are the driving forces of urban land growth of Guangzhou, while the tertiary industry has an opposite effect. The findings led to further suggestions and recommendations for urban sustainable development. Hence, local governments should design relevant policies for achieving the rational development of urban land use and strategic planning on urban sustainable development.

Bangkok as a magnet for rural labour: changing conditions, 1900-1970.

PubMed

Ouyyanont, P

1998-06-01

This article describes labor force shifts, in Thailand, from rural areas to Bangkok during 1900-1970 and is a revision of a chapter from a doctoral thesis. Urban growth of Bangkok occurred primarily after World War II. Pre-war wages in rural areas were higher than coolie wages in Bangkok. Opportunity costs of changing occupations were high. Chinese immigration was the key to development of non-farm occupations. The Chinese from Siam were drawn to higher wages in Bangkok than were possible in South China ports. After the war, the Lewis-Fei and Ranis migration model fits a pattern of migration that adjusts the disequilibrium between urban and rural markets. There are shifts from low productivity rural sectors to urban high productivity sectors. Capital investment in commerce and industry raised urban labor productivity. The wage data suggest a growing gap between urban and rural sectors postwar. Rail travel during the 1950s brought higher wages for the unskilled in railroad construction. There was high agricultural productivity relative to labor input due to availability of land. Underpopulation meant little unemployment. After 1950, conditions changed. The population growth rate increased. More in rural areas lived below the poverty line. Low rice productivity constrained rural wages and incomes during the 1950s and 1960s. The more favored commercial crops needed less labor. Chinese immigration declined, and demand for labor increased in urban areas. Low urban wages due to cheap labor stimulated profits and growth. Major roads connected Bangkok to the south and the north. Bangkok was viewed as a magical and desirable place.

Responses of Two Invasive Plants Under Various Microclimate Conditions in the Seoul Metropolitan Region

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Song, Uhram; Mun, Saeromi; Ho, Chang-Hoi; Lee, Eun Ju

2012-06-01

The possible consequences of global warming on plant communities and ecosystems have wide-ranging ramifications. We examined how environmental change affects plant growth as a function of the variations in the microclimate along an urban-suburban climate gradient for two allergy-inducing, invasive plants, Humulus japonicus and Ambrosia artemisiifolia var. elatior. The environmental factors and plant growth responses were measured at two urban sites (Gangbuk and Seongbuk) and two suburban sites (Goyang and Incheon) around Seoul, South Korea. The mean temperatures and CO2 concentrations differed significantly between the urban (14.8 °C and 439 ppm CO2) and suburban (13.0 °C and 427 ppm CO2) sites. The soil moisture and nitrogen contents of the suburban sites were higher than those at the urban sites, especially for the Goyang site. The two invasive plants showed significantly higher biomasses and nitrogen contents at the two urban sites. We conducted experiments in a greenhouse to confirm the responses of the plants to increased temperatures, and we found consistently higher growth rates under conditions of higher temperatures. Because we controlled the other factors, the better performance of the two invasive plants appears to be primarily attributable to their responses to temperature. Our study demonstrates that even small temperature changes in the environment can confer significant competitive advantages to invasive species. As habitats become urbanized and warmer, these invasive plants should be able to displace native species, which will adversely affect people living in these areas.

Responses of two invasive plants under various microclimate conditions in the Seoul metropolitan region.

PubMed

Song, Uhram; Mun, Saeromi; Ho, Chang-Hoi; Lee, Eun Ju

2012-06-01

The possible consequences of global warming on plant communities and ecosystems have wide-ranging ramifications. We examined how environmental change affects plant growth as a function of the variations in the microclimate along an urban-suburban climate gradient for two allergy-inducing, invasive plants, Humulus japonicus and Ambrosia artemisiifolia var. elatior. The environmental factors and plant growth responses were measured at two urban sites (Gangbuk and Seongbuk) and two suburban sites (Goyang and Incheon) around Seoul, South Korea. The mean temperatures and CO(2) concentrations differed significantly between the urban (14.8 °C and 439 ppm CO(2)) and suburban (13.0 °C and 427 ppm CO(2)) sites. The soil moisture and nitrogen contents of the suburban sites were higher than those at the urban sites, especially for the Goyang site. The two invasive plants showed significantly higher biomasses and nitrogen contents at the two urban sites. We conducted experiments in a greenhouse to confirm the responses of the plants to increased temperatures, and we found consistently higher growth rates under conditions of higher temperatures. Because we controlled the other factors, the better performance of the two invasive plants appears to be primarily attributable to their responses to temperature. Our study demonstrates that even small temperature changes in the environment can confer significant competitive advantages to invasive species. As habitats become urbanized and warmer, these invasive plants should be able to displace native species, which will adversely affect people living in these areas.

The inhabited environment, infrastructure development and advanced urbanization in China’s Yangtze River Delta Region

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhu, Xiaoqing; Gao, Weijun; Zhou, Nan; Kammen, Daniel M.; Wu, Yiqun; Zhang, Yao; Chen, Wei

2016-12-01

This paper analyzes the relationship among the inhabited environment, infrastructure development and environmental impacts in China’s heavily urbanized Yangtze River Delta region. Using primary human environment data for the period 2006-2014, we examine factors affecting the inhabited environment and infrastructure development: urban population, GDP, built-up area, energy consumption, waste emission, transportation, real estate and urban greenery. Then we empirically investigate the impact of advanced urbanization with consideration of cities’ differences. Results from this study show that the growth rate of the inhabited environment and infrastructure development is strongly influenced by regional development structure, functional orientations, traffic network and urban size and form. The effect of advanced urbanization is more significant in large and mid-size cities than huge and mega cities. Energy consumption, waste emission and real estate in large and mid-size cities developed at an unprecedented rate with the rapid increase of economy. However, urban development of huge and mega cities gradually tended to be saturated. The transition development in these cities improved the inhabited environment and ecological protection instead of the urban construction simply. To maintain a sustainable advanced urbanization process, policy implications included urban sprawl control polices, ecological development mechanisms and reforming the economic structure for huge and mega cities, and construct major cross-regional infrastructure, enhance the carrying capacity and improvement of energy efficiency and structure for large and mid-size cities.

Growth Scenarios for the City of Guangzhou, China: Transferability and Confirmability

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lehner, A.; Kraus, V.; Wei, C.; Steinnocher, K.

2016-09-01

This work deals with the development of urban growth scenarios and the prevision of the spatial distribution of built-up area and population for the urban area of the city of Guangzhou in China. Using freely-available data, including remotely sensed data as well as census data from the ground, expenditure of time and costs shall remain low. Guangzhou, one of the biggest cities within the Pearl River Delta, has faced an enormous economic and urban growth during the last three decades. Due to its economical and spatial characteristics it is a promising candidate for urban growth scenarios. The monitoring and prediction of urban growth comprises data of population and give them a spatial representation. The model, originally applied for the Indian city Ahmedabad, is used for urban growth scenarios. Therefore, transferability and confirmability of the model are evaluated. Challenges that may occur by transferring a model for urban growth from one region to another are discussed. With proposing the use of urban remote sensing and freely available data, urban planners shall be fitted with a comprehensible and simple tool to be able to contribute to the future challenge Smart Growth.

Modelling urban growth in the Indo-Gangetic plain using nighttime OLS data and cellular automata

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Roy Chowdhury, P. K.; Maithani, Sandeep

2014-12-01

The present study demonstrates the applicability of the Operational Linescan System (OLS) sensor in modelling urban growth at regional level. The nighttime OLS data provides an easy, inexpensive way to map urban areas at a regional scale, requiring a very small volume of data. A cellular automata (CA) model was developed for simulating urban growth in the Indo-Gangetic plain; using OLS data derived maps as input. In the proposed CA model, urban growth was expressed in terms of causative factors like economy, topography, accessibility and urban infrastructure. The model was calibrated and validated based on OLS data of year 2003 and 2008 respectively using spatial metrics measures and subsequently the urban growth was predicted for the year 2020. The model predicted high urban growth in North Western part of the study area, in south eastern part growth would be concentrated around two cities, Kolkata and Howrah. While in the middle portion of the study area, i.e., Jharkhand, Bihar and Eastern Uttar Pradesh, urban growth has been predicted in form of clusters, mostly around the present big cities. These results will not only provide an input to urban planning but can also be utilized in hydrological and ecological modelling which require an estimate of future built up areas especially at regional level.

Climate change accelerates growth of urban trees in metropolises worldwide.

PubMed

Pretzsch, Hans; Biber, Peter; Uhl, Enno; Dahlhausen, Jens; Schütze, Gerhard; Perkins, Diana; Rötzer, Thomas; Caldentey, Juan; Koike, Takayoshi; Con, Tran van; Chavanne, Aurélia; Toit, Ben du; Foster, Keith; Lefer, Barry

2017-11-13

Despite the importance of urban trees, their growth reaction to climate change and to the urban heat island effect has not yet been investigated with an international scope. While we are well informed about forest growth under recent conditions, it is unclear if this knowledge can be simply transferred to urban environments. Based on tree ring analyses in ten metropolises worldwide, we show that, in general, urban trees have undergone accelerated growth since the 1960s. In addition, urban trees tend to grow more quickly than their counterparts in the rural surroundings. However, our analysis shows that climate change seems to enhance the growth of rural trees more than that of urban trees. The benefits of growing in an urban environment seem to outweigh known negative effects, however, accelerated growth may also mean more rapid ageing and shortened lifetime. Thus, city planners should adapt to the changed dynamics in order to secure the ecosystem services provided by urban trees.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Aden, Nathaniel T.; Zheng, Nina; Fridley, David G.

Urbanization has re-shaped China's economy, society, and energy system. Between 1990 and 2007 China added 290 million new urban residents, bringing the total urbanization rate to 45%. This population adjustment spurred energy demand for construction of new buildings and infrastructure, as well as additional residential use as rural biomass was replaced with urban commercial energy services. Primary energy demand grew at an average annual rate of 10% between 2000 and 2007. Urbanization's effect on energy demand was compounded by the boom in domestic infrastructure investment, and in the export trade following World Trade Organization (WTO) accession in 2001. Industry energymore » consumption was most directly affected by this acceleration. Whereas industry comprised 32% of 2007 U.S. energy use, it accounted for 75% of China's 2007 energy consumption. Five sub-sectors accounted for 78% of China's industry energy use in 2007: iron and steel, energy extraction and processing, chemicals, cement, and non-ferrous metals. Ferrous metals alone accounted for 25% of industry and 18% of total primary energy use. The rapid growth of heavy industry has led China to become by far the world's largest producer of steel, cement, aluminum, and other energy-intensive commodities. However, the energy efficiency of heavy industrial production continues to lag world best practice levels. This study uses scenario analysis to quantify the impact of urbanization and trade on industrial and residential energy consumption from 2000 to 2025. The BAU scenario assumed 67% urbanization, frozen export amounts of heavy industrial products, and achievement of world best practices by 2025. The China Lightens Up (CLU) scenario assumed 55% urbanization, zero net exports of heavy industrial products, and more aggressive efficiency improvements by 2025. The five dominant industry sub-sectors were modeled in both scenarios using a LEAP energy end-use accounting model. The results of this study show that a CLU-style development path would avoid 430 million tonnes coal-equivalent energy use by 2025. More than 60% of these energy savings would come from reduced activity and production levels. In carbon terms, this would amount to more than a billion-tonne reduction of energy-related carbon emissions compared with the BAU scenario in 2025, though the absolute level of emissions rises in both scenarios. Aside from the energy and carbon savings related to CLU scenario development, this study showed impending saturation effects in commercial construction, urban appliance ownership, and fertilizer application. The implication of these findings is that urbanization will have a direct impact on future energy use and emissions - policies to guide urban growth can play a central role in China's efforts to mitigate emissions growth.« less

Cities as selective land predators? A lesson on urban growth, deregulated planning and sprawl containment.

PubMed

Colantoni, Andrea; Grigoriadis, Efstathios; Sateriano, Adele; Venanzoni, Giuseppe; Salvati, Luca

2016-03-01

The present study investigates changes in the use of land caused by the expansion of an informal city in the Mediterranean region (Athens, Greece) and it proposes a simplified methodology to assess selective land take at the scale of municipalities. The amount of land take over twenty years (1987-2007) for cropland, sparsely vegetated areas and natural land was compared with the surface area of the respective class at the beginning of the study period (1987). Indicators of selective land take by class were correlated with socioeconomic indicators at the scale of municipalities to verify the influence of the local context and the impact of urban planning on land take processes. Evidence indicates that urban expansion into fringe land consumes primarily cropland and sparse vegetation in the case of the Athens' metropolitan region. Cropland and sparse vegetation were consumed proportionally more than the respective availability in 16 municipalities out of 60. Agricultural land take was positively correlated with population density and growth rate, rate of participation to the job market and road density. Sparse vegetation land take was observed in municipalities with predominance of high density settlements. As a result of second-home expansion in coastal municipalities, natural land was converted to urban use in proportion to the availability in the landscape. Urban planning seems to have a limited impact on selective land take. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Spatial Growth Modeling and High Resolution Remote Sensing Data Coupled with Air Quality Modeling to Assess the Impact of Atlanta, Georgia on the Local and Regional Environment

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Quattrochi, Dale A.; Estes, Maurice G., Jr.; Crosson, William; Johnson, Hoyt; Khan, Maudood

2006-01-01

The growth of cities, both in population and areal extent, appears as an inexorable process. Urbanization continues at a rapid rate, and it is estimated that by the year 2025, 60 percent of the world s population will live in cities. Urban expansion has profound impacts on a host of biophysical, environmental, and atmospheric processes within an urban ecosystems perspective. A reduction in air quality over cities is a major result of these impacts. Because of its complexity, the urban landscape is not adequately captured in air quality models such as the Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ) model that is used to assess whether urban areas are in attainment of EPA air quality standards, primarily for ground level ozone. This inadequacy of the CMAQ model to sufficiently respond to the heterogeneous nature of the urban landscape can impact how well the model predicts ozone levels over metropolitan areas and ultimately, whether cities exceed EPA ozone air quality standards. We are exploring the utility of high-resolution remote sensing data and urban spatial growth modeling (SGM) projections as improved inputs to a meteorological/air quality modeling system focusing on the Atlanta, Georgia metropolitan area as a case study. These growth projections include business as usual and smart growth scenarios out to 2030. The growth projections illustrate the effects of employing urban heat island mitigation strategies, such as increasing tree canopy and albedo across the Atlanta metro area, which in turn, are used to model how air temperature can potentially be moderated as impacts on elevating ground-level ozone, as opposed to not utilizing heat island mitigation strategies. The National Land Cover Dataset at 30m resolution is being used as the land use/land cover input and aggregated to the 4km scale for the MM5 mesoscale meteorological model and the CMAQ modeling schemes. Use of these data has been found to better characterize low density/suburban development as compared with USGS lkm land use/land cover data that have traditionally been used in modeling. Air quality prediction for future scenarios to 2030 is being facilitated by land use projections using a spatial growth model. Land use projections were developed using the 2030 Regional Transportation Plan developed by the Atlanta Regional Commission, the regional planning agency for the area. This allows the Georgia Environmental Protection Division to evaluate how these transportation plans will affect future air quality. The coupled SGM and air quality modeling approach provides insight on what the impacts of Atlanta s growth will be on the local and regional environment and exists as a mechanism that can be used by policy makers to make rational decisions on urban growth and sustainability for the metropolitan area in the future.

Remote Sensing and Spatial Growth Modeling Coupled With Air Quality Modeling to Assess the Impact of Atlanta, Georgia on the Local and Regional Environment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Quattrochi, D. A.; Estes, M. G.; Crosson, W. L.; Johnson, H.; Khan, M.

2006-05-01

The growth of cities, both in population and areal extent, appears as an inexorable process. Urbanization continues at a rapid rate, and it is estimated that by the year 2025, 60 percent of the world's population will live in cities. Urban expansion has profound impacts on a host of biophysical, environmental, and atmospheric processes within an urban ecosystems perspective. A reduction in air quality over cities is a major result of these impacts. Because of its complexity, the urban landscape is not adequately captured in air quality models such as the Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ) model that is used to assess whether urban areas are in attainment of EPA air quality standards, primarily for ground level ozone. This inadequacy of the CMAQ model to sufficiently respond to the heterogeneous nature of the urban landscape can impact how well the model predicts ozone levels over metropolitan areas and ultimately, whether cities exceed EPA ozone air quality standards. We are exploring the utility of high-resolution remote sensing data and urban spatial growth modeling (SGM) projections as improved inputs to a meteorological/air quality modeling system focusing on the Atlanta, Georgia metropolitan area as a case study. These growth projections include "business as usual" and "smart growth" scenarios out to 2030. The growth projections illustrate the effects of employing urban heat island mitigation strategies, such as increasing tree canopy and albedo across the Atlanta metro area, which in turn, are used to model how air temperature can potentially be moderated as impacts on elevating ground-level ozone, as opposed to not utilizing heat island mitigation strategies. The National Land Cover Dataset at 30m resolution is being used as the land use/land cover input and aggregated to the 4km scale for the MM5 mesoscale meteorological model and the CMAQ modeling schemes. Use of these data has been found to better characterize low density/suburban development as compared with USGS 1km land use/land cover data that have traditionally been used in modeling. Air quality prediction for future scenarios to 2030 is being facilitated by land use projections using a spatial growth model. Land use projections were developed using the 2030 Regional Transportation Plan developed by the Atlanta Regional Commission, the regional planning agency for the area. This allows the Georgia Environmental Protection Division to evaluate how these transportation plans will affect future air quality. The coupled SGM and air quality modeling approach provides insight on what the impacts of Atlanta's growth will be on the local and regional environment and exists as a mechanism that can be used by policy makers to make rational decisions on urban growth and sustainability for the metropolitan area in the future.

Exploring Relationships between North American Urban Form and Rates of Urban CO2 Emissions: A System Dynamics Approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Emmi, P. C.; Forster, C. B.; Mills, J. I.; Call, B. D.; Sabula, J.; Klewicki, J. C.; Pataki, D. E.; Peterson, T. R.

2004-12-01

Cities are the locus of North America's most intense consumption of fossil fuels. Thus the rate and character of urbanization influence the rate of urban CO2 released into the global atmosphere. The rate of rural-to-urban land conversion, and changes in the population density of urban land, are influenced by coupled changes in urban demographics and the local economy. Urban sprawl (a rapid expansion of urban land with low population densities) is governed by a self-reinforcing feedback effect between urban transportation infrastructure investments (road building) and urban land development where road building begets new urban neighborhoods that, in turn, induce more road building that begets additional new neighborhoods. If unrestrained, this feedback effect leads to the unrestrained expansion of urban sprawl, urban vehicular travel and traffic congestion. This self-reinforcing feedback loop forms a key dynamic that controls the rate at which CO2-emitting fossil fuels are burned for transportation, electricity production, heating, and commercial/industrial processes. In a rapidly sprawling city residents must travel increasingly greater distances between work, shopping, and home while commercial service vehicles must travel to increasingly remote residential locations. The increasing number of vehicle trips and vehicle miles traveled, combined with the growing prevalence of ever-lower density urban land development, leads to a rapid increase in mobile and stationary CO2 emissions. A more compact and punctuated form of urban development with higher-density and mixed-use urban activity centers leads to reduced CO2 emissions. Those who shape urban development policy are often unconcerned by increasing CO2 emissions unless they can be linked to: (1) local concerns about criteria air pollutant emissions and air quality, (2) the dependency of federal infrastructure funding on meeting ambient air quality standards, and (3) the consequences of human exposure to health risks associated with declining air quality. The dynamic simulation of urban systems demonstrates that a suite of policies can be found to diminish sprawl and defeat traffic congestion thereby safeguarding the vitality a city. A systems thinking approach, facilitated by a community engagement process, has further enabled community opinion leaders and policy makers to map the key features, linkages and feedbacks of a complex, CO2-emitting urban ecosystem. A corresponding lumped-parameter, simulation model provides a framework for decision makers and stakeholders to explore the consequences of alternative options for managing urban growth, sprawl and congestion while also reducing CO2 emissions.

Modeling urban growth by the use of a multiobjective optimization approach: environmental and economic issues for the Yangtze watershed, China.

PubMed

Zhang, Wenting; Wang, Haijun; Han, Fengxiang; Gao, Juan; Nguyen, Thuminh; Chen, Yarong; Huang, Bo; Zhan, F Benjamin; Zhou, Lequn; Hong, Song

2014-11-01

Urban growth is an unavoidable process caused by economic development and population growth. Traditional urban growth models represent the future urban growth pattern by repeating the historical urban growth regulations, which can lead to a lot of environmental problems. The Yangtze watershed is the largest and the most prosperous economic area in China, and it has been suffering from rapid urban growth from the 1970s. With the built-up area increasing from 23,238 to 31,054 km(2) during the period from 1980 to 2005, the watershed has suffered from serious nonpoint source (NPS) pollution problems, which have been mainly caused by the rapid urban growth. To protect the environment and at the same time maintain the economic development, a multiobjective optimization (MOP) is proposed to tradeoff the multiple objectives during the urban growth process of the Yangtze watershed. In particular, the four objectives of minimization of NPS pollution, maximization of GDP value, minimization of the spatial incompatibility between the land uses, and minimization of the cost of land-use change are considered by the MOP approach. Conventionally, a genetic algorithm (GA) is employed to search the Pareto solution set. In our MOP approach, a two-dimensional GA, rather than the traditional one-dimensional GA, is employed to assist with the search for the spatial optimization solution, where the land-use cells in the two-dimensional space act as genes in the GA. Furthermore, to confirm the superiority of the MOP approach over the traditional prediction approaches, a widely used urban growth prediction model, cellular automata (CA), is also carried out to allow a comparison with the Pareto solution of MOP. The results indicate that the MOP approach can make a tradeoff between the multiple objectives and can achieve an optimal urban growth pattern for Yangtze watershed, while the CA prediction model just represents the historical urban growth pattern as the future growth pattern. Moreover, according to the spatial clustering index, the urban growth pattern predicted through MOP is more reasonable. In summary, the proposed model provides a set of Pareto urban growth solutions, which compromise environmental and economic issues for the Yangtze watershed.

Land Cover Change and Remote Sensing in the Classroom: An Exercise to Study Urban Growth

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Delahunty, Tina; Lewis-Gonzales, Sarah; Phelps, Jack; Sawicki, Ben; Roberts, Charles; Carpenter, Penny

2012-01-01

The processes and implications of urban growth are studied in a variety of disciplines as urban growth affects both the physical and human landscape. Remote sensing methods provide ways to visualize and mathematically represent urban growth; and resultant land cover change data enable both quantitative and qualitative analysis. This article helps…

Urban bound migration and rural investment: the case of Mexico.

PubMed

Silvers, A L; Crosson, P

1983-02-01

The authors investigate an agriculturally based policy for improving rural incomes and for retarding the rural-urban migration flow. The production of agricultural goods is characterized by a production function in which output increases with increases in agricultural labor inputs, capital, public infrastructure, land, and technology. Differences among regions in agricultural technology will reflect regional differences in education, the institutionalized form of productive organization, and differences in access to technological information channeled through more technically advanced cities. To pick up the effect of out-migration changes in state agricultural labor supply and upon agricultural output, the state's agricultural out-migration rate is included together with the agricultural labor force. The gross migrant flow between 2 locations is hypothesized to depend upon a set of variables influencing the individual's perception of the economic rate of return to be gained by moving, a set of variables reflecting the individual's propensity to relocate, the labor displacement effects of investments, and the at risk population at 1 location available to migrate. It is also taken into account that individuals differ in their response to information about origin and destination wage differentials and that individuals may or may not perceive a new ecnomic gain from migration but may base the decision on other considerations. Results of a statistical analysis using data from the Mexican census of population for 1960 and 1970 are: 1) size of the rural labor force was negatively associated with agricultural wages, contrary to expectations; 2) small farmers have benefited from the expansion of irrigation in Mexico; and 3) higher urban wages attract migration, and higher growth rate of agricultural income retards rural-urban migration. With respect to the 1950-60 decade both agricultural income and rural out-migration impacts could have been substantial but both the impact on local urban growth and on the rate of in-migration to the primate city would have been slight.

Africa: rapid population increase retards development.

PubMed

1993-10-01

The Organization of African Unity (OAU), the African Development Bank (ADB) and the UN Economic Commission for Africa (ECA) have criticized African governments for not taking the problem of unchecked population growth seriously enough. "Until recently most African governments did not view rapid population growth as a matter for concern," said the OAU assistant secretary-general for political affairs, Machivenyika Mapuranga, at a seminar on 'population and development'. The OAU estimates that an annual average population increase of 3.1% far outstrips Africa's economic growth, which in 1992 was less than 1%. Mapuranga acknowledged that cutting the population increase is an uphill struggle, especially among rural communities. African agriculture is largely labor intensive, sustained by smallholders, which encourages farmers to have more children. Like other wage earners, African farmers look to support from their family when they grow old and, for that reason, the number of children also counts. But with agricultural production growing at an average annual rate of 2.5%, self-sufficiency in food remains an elusive goal. Cities in sub-Saharan Africa are growing much faster than the overall rate of population increase of 3.1% per year. Between 1980 and 1988 the region's urban population increased at the rate of 6.9% a year. Urban areas now account for nearly 30% of the sub-Saharan Africa population, currently put at 680 million. By 2025, approximately 700 million people are expected to live in urban areas. Despite migration to towns, the rural population is expected to rise more than 68%, reaching over 590 million. full text

Relationship between health services, socioeconomic variables and inadequate weight gain among Brazilian children.

PubMed Central

de Souza, A. C.; Peterson, K. E.; Cufino, E.; Gardner, J.; Craveiro, M. V.; Ascherio, A.

1999-01-01

This ecological analysis assessed the relative contribution of behavioural, health services and socioeconomic variables to inadequate weight gain in infants (0-11 months) and children (12-23 months) in 140 municipalities in the State of Ceara, north-east Brazil. To assess the total effect of selected variables, we fitted three unique sets of multivariate linear regression models to the prevalence of inadequate weight gain in infants and in children. The final predictive models included variables from the three sets. Findings showed that participation in growth monitoring and urbanization were inversely and significantly associated with the prevalence of inadequate weight gain in infants, accounting for 38.3% of the variation. Female illiteracy rate, participation in growth monitoring and degree of urbanization were all positively associated with prevalence of inadequate weight gain in children. Together, these factors explained 25.6% of the variation. Our results suggest that efforts to reduce the average municipality-specific female illiteracy rate, in combination with participation in growth monitoring, may be effective in reducing municipality-level prevalence of inadequate weight gain in infants and children in Ceara. PMID:10612885

Relationship between health services, socioeconomic variables and inadequate weight gain among Brazilian children.

PubMed

de Souza, A C; Peterson, K E; Cufino, E; Gardner, J; Craveiro, M V; Ascherio, A

1999-01-01

This ecological analysis assessed the relative contribution of behavioural, health services and socioeconomic variables to inadequate weight gain in infants (0-11 months) and children (12-23 months) in 140 municipalities in the State of Ceara, north-east Brazil. To assess the total effect of selected variables, we fitted three unique sets of multivariate linear regression models to the prevalence of inadequate weight gain in infants and in children. The final predictive models included variables from the three sets. Findings showed that participation in growth monitoring and urbanization were inversely and significantly associated with the prevalence of inadequate weight gain in infants, accounting for 38.3% of the variation. Female illiteracy rate, participation in growth monitoring and degree of urbanization were all positively associated with prevalence of inadequate weight gain in children. Together, these factors explained 25.6% of the variation. Our results suggest that efforts to reduce the average municipality-specific female illiteracy rate, in combination with participation in growth monitoring, may be effective in reducing municipality-level prevalence of inadequate weight gain in infants and children in Ceara.

How Did Urban Land Expand in China between 1992 and 2015? A Multi-Scale Landscape Analysis.

PubMed

Xu, Min; He, Chunyang; Liu, Zhifeng; Dou, Yinyin

2016-01-01

Effective and timely quantification of the spatiotemporal pattern of urban expansion in China is important for the assessment of its environmental effects. However, the dynamics of the most recent urban expansions in China since 2012 have not yet been adequately explained due to a lack of current information. In this paper, our objective was to quantify spatiotemporal patterns of urban expansion in China between 1992 and 2015. First, we extracted information on urban expansion in China between 1992 and 2015 by integrating nighttime light data, vegetation index data, and land surface temperature data. Then we analyzed the spatiotemporal patterns of urban expansion at the national and regional scales, as well as at that of urban agglomerations. We found that China experienced a rapid and large-scale process of urban expansion between 1992 and 2015, with urban land increasing from 1.22 × 104 km2 to 7.29 × 104 km2, increasing in size nearly fivefold and with an average annual growth rate of 8.10%, almost 2.5 times as rapid as the global average. We also found that urban land in China expanded mainly by occupying 3.31 × 104 km2 of cropland, which comprised 54.67% of the total area of expanded urban land. Among the three modes of growth-infilling, edge expansion, and leapfrog-edge expansion was the main cause of cropland loss. Cropland loss resulting from edge expansion of urban land totalled 2.51 × 104 km2, accounting for over 75% of total cropland loss. We suggest that effective future management with respect to edge expansion of urban land is needed to protect cropland in China.

[Delimitation of urban growth boundary based on ecological suitability and risk control: A case of Taibai Lake New District in Jining City, Shandong, China.

PubMed

Liu, Yan Xu; Peng, Jian; Sun, Mao Long; Yang, Yang

2016-08-01

Urban growth boundary, with full consideration of regional ecological constraints, can effectively control the unordered urban sprawl. Thus, urban growth boundary is a significant planning concept integrating regional ecological protection and urban construction. Finding the preferential position for urban construction, as well as controlling the ecological risk, has always been the core content of urban growth boundary delimitation. This study selected Taibai Lake New District in Jining City as a case area, and analyzed the scenario of ecological suitability by ordered weighted ave-raging algorithm. Surface temperature retrieval and rain flooding simulation were used to identify the spatial ecological risk. In the result of ecological suitability, the suitable construction zone accounted for 25.3% of the total area, the unsuitable construction zone accounted for 20.4%, and the other area was in the limit construction zone. Excluding the ecological risk control region, the flexible urban growth boundary covered 2975 hm 2 in near term, and covered 6754 hm 2 in long term. The final inflexible urban growth boundary covered 9405 hm 2 . As a new method, the scenario algorithms of ordered weighted averaging and ecological risk modeling could provide effective support in urban growth boundary identification.

The Impact of Urban Growth and Climate Change on Heat Stress in an Australian City

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chapman, S.; Mcalpine, C. A.; Thatcher, M. J.; Salazar, A.; Watson, J. R.

2017-12-01

Over half of the world's population lives in urban areas. Most people will therefore be exposed to climate change in an urban environment. One of the climate risks facing urban residents is heat stress, which can lead to illness and death. Urban residents are at increased risk of heat stress due to the urban heat island effect. The urban heat island is a modification of the urban environment and increases temperatures on average by 2°C, though the increase can be much higher, up to 8°C when wind speeds and cloud cover are low. The urban heat island is also expected to increase in the future due to urban growth and intensification, further exacerbating urban heat stress. Climate change alters the urban heat island due to changes in weather (wind speed and cloudiness) and evapotranspiration. Future urban heat stress will therefore be affected by urban growth and climate change. The aim of this study was to examine the impact of urban growth and climate change on the urban heat island and heat stress in Brisbane, Australia. We used CCAM, the conformal cubic atmospheric model developed by the CSIRO, to examine temperatures in Brisbane using scenarios of urban growth and climate change. We downscaled the urban climate using CCAM, based on bias corrected Sea Surface Temperatures from the ACCESS1.0 projection of future climate. We used Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 8.5 for the periods 1990 - 2000, 2049 - 2060 and 2089 - 2090 with current land use and an urban growth scenario. The present day climatology was verified using weather station data from the Australian Bureau of Meteorology. We compared the urban heat island of the present day with the urban heat island with climate change to determine if climate change altered the heat island. We also calculated heat stress using wet-bulb globe temperature and apparent temperature for the climate change and base case scenarios. We found the urban growth scenario increased present day temperatures by 0.5°C in the inner city and by 6°C during a period of hot days. The scenarios of future temperature are ongoing and will show how heat stress will change in Brisbane when both urban growth and climate change are considered.

Observations of the Morning Development of the Urban Boundary Layer Over London, UK, Taken During the ACTUAL Project

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Halios, Christos H.; Barlow, Janet F.

2018-03-01

The study of the boundary layer can be most difficult when it is in transition and forced by a complex surface, such as an urban area. Here, a novel combination of ground-based remote sensing and in situ instrumentation in central London, UK, is deployed, aiming to capture the full evolution of the urban boundary layer (UBL) from night-time until the fully-developed convective phase. In contrast with the night-time stable boundary layer observed over rural areas, the night-time UBL is weakly convective. Therefore, a new approach for the detection of the morning-transition and rapid-growth phases is introduced, based on the sharp, quasi-linear increase of the mixing height. The urban morning-transition phase varied in duration between 0.5 and 4 h and the growth rate of the mixing layer during the rapid-growth phase had a strong positive relationship with the convective velocity scale, and a weaker, negative relationship with wind speed. Wind shear was found to be higher during the night-time and morning-transition phases than the rapid-growth phase and the shear production of turbulent kinetic energy near the mixing-layer top was around six times larger than surface shear production in summer, and around 1.5 times larger in winter. In summer under low winds, low-level jets dominated the UBL, and shear production was greater than buoyant production during the night-time and the morning-transition phase near the mixing-layer top. Within the rapid-growth phase, buoyant production dominated at the surface, but shear production dominated in the upper half of the UBL. These results imply that regional flows such as low-level jets play an important role alongside surface forcing in determining UBL structure and growth.

Urban shrinkage in Germany and the USA: a comparison of transformation patterns and local strategies.

PubMed

Wiechmann, Thorsten; Pallagst, Karina M

2012-01-01

Many American and European cities have to deal with demographic and economic trajectories leading to urban shrinkage. According to official data, 13% of urban regions in the US and 54% of those in the EU have lost population in recent years. However, the extent and spatial distribution of declining populations differ significantly between Europe and the US. In Germany, the situation is driven by falling birth rates and the effects of German reunification. In the US, shrinkage is basically related to long-term industrial transformation. But the challenges of shrinking cities seldom appeared on the agendas of politicians and urban planners until recently. This article provides a critical overview of the development paths and local strategies of four shrinking cities: Schwedt and Dresden in eastern Germany; Youngstown and Pittsburgh in the US. A typology of urban growth and shrinkage, from economic and demographic perspectives, enables four types of city to be differentiated and the differences between the US and eastern Germany to be discussed. The article suggests that a new transatlantic debate on policy and planning strategies for restructuring shrinking cities is needed to overcome the dominant growth orientation that in most cases intensifies the negative consequences of shrinkage.

Population growth and rural-urban migration, with special reference to Ghana.

PubMed

De Graft-johnson, K T

1974-01-01

While the population of Ghana is expected to double in 25 years at the current rate of increase (approximately 2.5% per annum), the population of urban centers is increasing even faster. The 1970 census shows the urban population growing by 4.8% per annum. This is mainly the result of rural to urban migration and, to a smaller extent, the increase in the number of urban centers from 39 in 1948 to 98 in 1960 to 135 in 1970. In the 1970 census only 57.1% of the population were enumerated in their locality of birth and only 20.9% in a locality other than their place of birth but in the same region. 4.1% were born outside Ghana, mostly in another West African country. 1 striking difference between urban and rural areas is the differing sex ratio of the working population. In rural areas there are 91.0 males aged 15-64 years for every 100 females while in urban areas there are 107.1. Most migration in Africa is for employment and those most likely to migrate are working-age males. Because secondary schools are scarce in rural areas, urban dwellers generally have a higher education level. There are no significant differences between overall labor force participation rates for females. The nationwide participation rate was 38.9% for both males and females (males 43.8%, females 34.1%); in urban areas the total was 40.0% (males 46.3%, females 33.7%) and in rural areas 38.5% (males 42.7%, females 34.3%). Ghanaian women have traditionally occupied a prominent place in the labor force. The theory that urban migration is due to urban-rural income disparities is not confirmed by figures. Considering the high amount of unemployment in urban areas, a rural dweller can average as much as a city dweller. In fact, poorly educated migrants are the ones most affected by urban unemployment. A recent study by Kodwo Ewusi considered the impact of many variables on migration; he found depressed social conditions at the place of origin are more compelling motivations than economic factors but that once people decide to migrate, they base their choice of destination primarily on economic opportunities available at that end. Distance bears little relationship to choice of destination. To stem this tide efforts need to be made to increase rural income, provide employment opportunities for those displaced as agriculture becomes more efficient, and to provide for greater amenities in rural areas. Urban unemployment is an ever-increasing problem, accentuated by population growth and migration. Intensive rural development is needed to reverse this trend.

Ecotypic differentiation between urban and rural populations of the grasshopper Chorthippus brunneus relative to climate and habitat fragmentation.

PubMed

San Martin Y Gomez, Gilles; Van Dyck, Hans

2012-05-01

Urbanization alters environmental conditions in multiple ways and offers an ecological or evolutionary challenge for organisms to cope with. Urban areas typically have a warmer climate and strongly fragmented herbaceous vegetation; the urban landscape matrix is often assumed to be hostile for many organisms. Here, we addressed the issue of evolutionary differentiation between urban and rural populations of an ectotherm insect, the grasshopper Chorthippus brunneus. We compared mobility-related morphology and climate-related life history traits measured on the first generation offspring of grasshoppers from urban and rural populations reared in a common garden laboratory experiment. We predicted (1) the urban phenotype to be more mobile (i.e., lower mass allocation to the abdomen, longer relative femur and wing lengths) than the rural phenotype; (2) the urban phenotype to be more warm adapted (e.g., higher female body mass); and (3) further evidence of local adaptation in the form of significant interaction effects between landscape of origin and breeding temperature. Both males and females of urban origin had significantly longer relative femur and wing lengths and lower mass allocation to the abdomen (i.e., higher investment in thorax and flight muscles) relative to individuals of rural origin. The results were overall significant but small (2-4%). Body mass and larval growth rate were much higher (+10%) in females of urban origin. For the life history traits, we did not find evidence for significant interaction effects between the landscape of origin and the two breeding temperatures. Our results point to ecotypic differentiation with urbanization for mobility-related morphology and climate-related life history traits. We argue that the warmer urban environment has an indirect effect through longer growth season rather than direct effects on the development.

Monitoring urban expansion and land use/land cover changes of Shanghai metropolitan area during the transitional economy (1979-2009) in China.

PubMed

Yin, Jie; Yin, Zhane; Zhong, Haidong; Xu, Shiyuan; Hu, Xiaomeng; Wang, Jun; Wu, Jianping

2011-06-01

This study explored the spatio-temporal dynamics and evolution of land use/cover changes and urban expansion in Shanghai metropolitan area, China, during the transitional economy period (1979-2009) using multi-temporal satellite images and geographic information systems (GIS). A maximum likelihood supervised classification algorithm was employed to extract information from four landsat images, with the post-classification change detection technique and GIS-based spatial analysis methods used to detect land-use and land-cover (LULC) changes. The overall Kappa indices of land use/cover change maps ranged from 0.79 to 0.89. Results indicated that urbanization has accelerated at an unprecedented scale and rate during the study period, leading to a considerable reduction in the area of farmland and green land. Findings further revealed that water bodies and bare land increased, obviously due to large-scale coastal development after 2000. The direction of urban expansion was along a north-south axis from 1979 to 2000, but after 2000 this growth changed to spread from both the existing urban area and along transport routes in all directions. Urban expansion and subsequent LULC changes in Shanghai have largely been driven by policy reform, population growth, and economic development. Rapid urban expansion through clearing of vegetation has led to a wide range of eco-environmental degradation.

Azolla-Anabaena's behaviour in urban wastewater and artificial media--influence of combined nitrogen.

PubMed

Costa, M L; Santos, M C R; Carrapiço, F; Pereira, A L

2009-08-01

The results of using the nitrogen fixing symbiotic system Azolla-Anabaena to improve the quality of treated urban wastewater, particularly on what concerns phosphorus removal efficiencies (40-65%), obtained in continuous assays performed during the past few years and presented earlier, were very promising. Nevertheless, the presence of combined nitrogen in some wastewaters can compromise the treatment efficiency. The main goal of this work was to compare plants behaviour in wastewater and in mineral media with and without added nitrogen. Azolla filiculoides's specific growth rates in wastewater and in mineral media without added nitrogen or with low nitrate concentration were very similar (0.122 d(-1)-0.126 d(-1)), but decreased in the presence of ammonium (0.100 d(-1)). The orthophosphate removal rate coefficients were similar in all the growth media (0.210 d(-1)-0.232 d(-1)), but ammonium removal rate coefficient in wastewater was higher (0.117 d(-1)) than in mineral medium using that source of nitrogen (0.077 d(-1)). The ammonium present in wastewater, despite its high concentration (34 mg NL(-1)), didn't seem to inhibit growth and nitrogen fixation, however, in mineral media, ammonium (40 mg NL(-1)) was found to induce, respectively, 18% and 46% of inhibition.

The effect of urban growth on landscape-scale restoration for a fire-dependent songbird

USGS Publications Warehouse

Pickens, Bradley A.; Marcus, Jeffrey F.; Carpenter, John P.; Anderson, Scott; Taillie, Paul J.; Collazo, Jaime A.

2017-01-01

A landscape-scale perspective on restoration ecology has been advocated, but few studies have informed restoration with landscape metrics or addressed broad-scale threats. Threats such as urban growth may affect restoration effectiveness in a landscape context. Here, we studied longleaf pine savanna in the rapidly urbanizing southeastern United States where a habitat-specialist bird, Bachman's sparrow (Peucaea aestivalis), is closely associated with savanna vegetation structure and frequent fire. Our objectives were to construct a species distribution model for Bachman's sparrow, determine the relationship between fire and urbanization, quantify the urban growth effect (2010–2090), identify potential restoration areas, and determine the interaction between restoration potential and urban growth by 2050. Number of patches, patch size, and isolation metrics were used to evaluate scenarios. The species distribution model was 88% accurate and emphasized multiscale canopy cover characteristics, fire, and percent habitat. Fires were less common <600 m from urban areas, and this fire suppression effect exacerbated urban growth effects. For restoration scenarios, canopy cover reduction by 30% resulted in nearly double the amount of habitat compared to the prescribed fire scenario; canopy cover reduction resulted in larger patch sizes and less patch isolation compared to current conditions. The effect of urban growth on restoration scenarios was unequal. Seventy-four percent of restoration areas from the prescribed fire scenario overlapped with projected urban growth, whereas the canopy cover reduction scenario only overlapped by 9%. We emphasize the benefits of simultaneously considering the effects of urban growth and landscape-scale restoration potential to promote a landscape with greater patch sizes and less isolation.

Mammal diversity and metacommunity dynamics in urban green spaces: implications for urban wildlife conservation.

PubMed

Gallo, Travis; Fidino, Mason; Lehrer, Elizabeth W; Magle, Seth B

2017-12-01

As urban growth expands and natural environments fragment, it is essential to understand the ecological roles fulfilled by urban green spaces. To evaluate how urban green spaces function as wildlife habitat, we estimated mammal diversity and metacommunity dynamics in city parks, cemeteries, golf courses, and natural areas throughout the greater Chicago, Illinois, USA region. We found similar α-diversity (with the exception of city parks), but remarkably dissimilar communities in different urban green spaces. Additionally, the type of urban green space greatly influenced species colonization and persistence rates. For example, coyotes (Canis latrans) had the highest, but white-tailed deer (Odocoileus virginianus) the lowest probability of persistence in golf courses compared to other green space types. Further, most species had a difficult time colonizing city parks even when sites were seemingly available. Our results indicate that urban green spaces contribute different, but collectively important, habitats for maintaining and conserving biodiversity in cities. © 2017 by the Ecological Society of America.

Modeling and predicting urban growth pattern of the Tokyo metropolitan area based on cellular automata

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhao, Yaolong; Zhao, Junsan; Murayama, Yuji

2008-10-01

The period of high economic growth in Japan which began in the latter half of the 1950s led to a massive migration of population from rural regions to the Tokyo metropolitan area. This phenomenon brought about rapid urban growth and urban structure changes in this area. Purpose of this study is to establish a constrained CA (Cellular Automata) model with GIS (Geographical Information Systems) to simulate urban growth pattern in the Tokyo metropolitan area towards predicting urban form and landscape for the near future. Urban land-use is classified into multi-categories for interpreting the effect of interaction among land-use categories in the spatial process of urban growth. Driving factors of urban growth pattern, such as land condition, railway network, land-use zoning, random perturbation, and neighborhood interaction and so forth, are explored and integrated into this model. These driving factors are calibrated based on exploratory spatial data analysis (ESDA), spatial statistics, logistic regression, and "trial and error" approach. The simulation is assessed at both macro and micro classification levels in three ways: visual approach; fractal dimension; and spatial metrics. Results indicate that this model provides an effective prototype to simulate and predict urban growth pattern of the Tokyo metropolitan area.

Prevalent vegetation growth enhancement in urban environment.

PubMed

Zhao, Shuqing; Liu, Shuguang; Zhou, Decheng

2016-05-31

Urbanization, a dominant global demographic trend, leads to various changes in environments (e.g., atmospheric CO2 increase, urban heat island). Cities experience global change decades ahead of other systems so that they are natural laboratories for studying responses of other nonurban biological ecosystems to future global change. However, the impacts of urbanization on vegetation growth are not well understood. Here, we developed a general conceptual framework for quantifying the impacts of urbanization on vegetation growth and applied it in 32 Chinese cities. Results indicated that vegetation growth, as surrogated by satellite-observed vegetation index, decreased along urban intensity across all cities. At the same time, vegetation growth was enhanced at 85% of the places along the intensity gradient, and the relative enhancement increased with urban intensity. This growth enhancement offset about 40% of direct loss of vegetation productivity caused by replacing productive vegetated surfaces with nonproductive impervious surfaces. In light of current and previous field studies, we conclude that vegetation growth enhancement is prevalent in urban settings. Urban environments do provide ideal natural laboratories to observe biological responses to environmental changes that are difficult to mimic in manipulative experiments. However, one should be careful in extrapolating the finding to nonurban environments because urban vegetation is usually intensively managed, and attribution of the responses to diverse driving forces will be challenging but must be pursued.

Prevalent vegetation growth enhancement in urban environment

PubMed Central

Zhao, Shuqing; Liu, Shuguang; Zhou, Decheng

2016-01-01

Urbanization, a dominant global demographic trend, leads to various changes in environments (e.g., atmospheric CO2 increase, urban heat island). Cities experience global change decades ahead of other systems so that they are natural laboratories for studying responses of other nonurban biological ecosystems to future global change. However, the impacts of urbanization on vegetation growth are not well understood. Here, we developed a general conceptual framework for quantifying the impacts of urbanization on vegetation growth and applied it in 32 Chinese cities. Results indicated that vegetation growth, as surrogated by satellite-observed vegetation index, decreased along urban intensity across all cities. At the same time, vegetation growth was enhanced at 85% of the places along the intensity gradient, and the relative enhancement increased with urban intensity. This growth enhancement offset about 40% of direct loss of vegetation productivity caused by replacing productive vegetated surfaces with nonproductive impervious surfaces. In light of current and previous field studies, we conclude that vegetation growth enhancement is prevalent in urban settings. Urban environments do provide ideal natural laboratories to observe biological responses to environmental changes that are difficult to mimic in manipulative experiments. However, one should be careful in extrapolating the finding to nonurban environments because urban vegetation is usually intensively managed, and attribution of the responses to diverse driving forces will be challenging but must be pursued. PMID:27185955

Responses of growth, photosynthesis and VOC emissions of Pinus tabulaeformis Carr. Exposure to elevated CO2 and/or elevated O3 in an urban area.

PubMed

Xu, Sheng; Chen, Wei; Huang, Yanqing; He, Xingyuan

2012-03-01

Responses of growth, photosynthesis and emission of volatile organic compounds of Pinus tabulaeformis exposed to elevated CO(2) (700 ppm) and O(3) (80 ppb) were studied in open top chambers. Elevated CO(2) increased growth, but it did not significantly (p > 0.05) affect net photosynthetic rate, stomatal conductance, chlorophyll content, the maximum quantum yield of photosystem II, or the effective quantum yield of photosystem II electron transport after 90 d of gas exposure. Elevated O(3) decreased growth (by 42.2% in needle weight and 25.8% in plant height), net photosynthetic rate and stomatal conductance after 90 d of exposure, but its negative effects were alleviated by elevated CO(2). Elevated O(3) significantly (p < 0.05) increased the emission rate of volatile organic compounds, which may be a helpful response to protect photosynthetic apparatus against O(3) damage.

Environmental Consequences of Rapid Urbanization in Zhejiang Province, East China

PubMed Central

Yang, Xuchao; Yue, Wenze; Xu, Honghui; Wu, Jingsheng; He, Yue

2014-01-01

Since reforms carried out in the late 1970s, China has experienced unprecedented rates of urban growth. Remote sensing data and surface observational data are used to investigate the urbanization process and related environmental consequences, focusing on extreme heat events and air pollution, in Zhejiang Province (ZJP, East China). Examination of satellite-measured nighttime light data indicates rapid urbanization in ZJP during the past decade, initially forming three urban clusters. With rapid urban sprawl, a significant Urban Heat Island (UHI) effect has emerged. During extreme heat events in summer, the UHI effect significantly exacerbates nocturnal heat stress in highly urbanized areas. Taking a long-term view, urbanization also causes additional hot days and hot degree days in urban areas. Urbanization also imposes a heavy burden on local and regional air quality in ZJP. Degraded visibility and an increase in haze days are observed at most meteorological stations, especially in the three urban clusters. The results show that urbanization has led to serious environmental problems in ZJP, not only on the city scale, but also on the regional scale. Maintaining a balance between the continuing process of urbanization and environmental sustainability is a major issue facing the local government. PMID:25019266

Environmental consequences of rapid urbanization in zhejiang province, East china.

PubMed

Yang, Xuchao; Yue, Wenze; Xu, Honghui; Wu, Jingsheng; He, Yue

2014-07-11

Since reforms carried out in the late 1970s, China has experienced unprecedented rates of urban growth. Remote sensing data and surface observational data are used to investigate the urbanization process and related environmental consequences, focusing on extreme heat events and air pollution, in Zhejiang Province (ZJP, East China). Examination of satellite-measured nighttime light data indicates rapid urbanization in ZJP during the past decade, initially forming three urban clusters. With rapid urban sprawl, a significant Urban Heat Island (UHI) effect has emerged. During extreme heat events in summer, the UHI effect significantly exacerbates nocturnal heat stress in highly urbanized areas. Taking a long-term view, urbanization also causes additional hot days and hot degree days in urban areas. Urbanization also imposes a heavy burden on local and regional air quality in ZJP. Degraded visibility and an increase in haze days are observed at most meteorological stations, especially in the three urban clusters. The results show that urbanization has led to serious environmental problems in ZJP, not only on the city scale, but also on the regional scale. Maintaining a balance between the continuing process of urbanization and environmental sustainability is a major issue facing the local government.

Growth Control: Some Questions for Urban Decisionmakers.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Levine, Robert A.

This report is intended to provide urban decisionmakers--mayors, city managers, planning directors, key staff and line officials, city councilmen--and citizen groups with a guide to some of the issues that surround the effort to bring urban growth under control. The report attempts to be neutral in regard to whether urban growth should be…

Tree Species Suitability to Bioswales and Impact on the Urban Water Budget.

PubMed

Scharenbroch, Bryant C; Morgenroth, Justin; Maule, Brian

2016-01-01

Water movement between soil and the atmosphere is restricted by hardscapes in the urban environment. Some green infrastructure is intended to increase infiltration and storage of water, thus decreasing runoff and discharge of urban stormwater. Bioswales are a critical component of a water-sensitive urban design (or a low-impact urban design), and incorporation of trees into these green infrastructural components is believed to be a novel way to return stored water to the atmosphere via transpiration. This research was conducted in The Morton Arboretum's main parking lot, which is one of the first and largest green infrastructure installations in the midwestern United States. The parking lot is constructed of permeable pavers and tree bioswales. Trees in bioswales were evaluated for growth and condition and for their effects on water cycling via transpiration. Our data indicate that trees in bioswales accounted for 46 to 72% of total water outputs via transpiration, thereby reducing runoff and discharge from the parking lot. By evaluating the stomatal conductance, diameter growth, and condition of a variety of tree species in these bioswales, we found that not all species are equally suited for bioswales and that not all are equivalent in their transpiration and growth rates, thereby contributing differentially to the functional capacity of bioswales. We conclude that species with high stomatal conductance and large mature form are likely to contribute best to bioswale function. Copyright © by the American Society of Agronomy, Crop Science Society of America, and Soil Science Society of America, Inc.

Effects of urban tree management and species selection on atmospheric carbon dioxide

Treesearch

David J. Nowak; Jack C. Stevens; Susan M. Sisinni; Christopher J. Luley

2002-01-01

Trees sequester and store carbon in their tissue at differing rates and amounts based on such factors as tree size at maturity, life span, and growth rate. Concurrently, tree care practices release carbon back to the atmosphere based on fossil-fuel emissions from maintenance equipment (e.g., chain saws, trucks, chippers). Management choices such as tree locations for...

Effects of the large-scale atmospheric circulation on the onset and strength of urban heat islands: a case study

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Targino, Admir Créso; Krecl, Patricia; Coraiola, Guilherme Conor

2014-07-01

Air temperature was monitored at 13 sites across the urban perimeter of a Brazilian midsize city in winter 2011. In this study, we show that the urban heat island (UHI) develops only at night and under certain weather conditions, and its intensity depends not only on the site's land cover but also on the meteorological setting. The urban heat island intensity was largest (6.6 °C) under lingering high-pressure conditions, milder (3.0 °C) under cold anticyclones and almost vanished (1.0 °C) during the passage of cold fronts. The cooling rates were calculated to monitor the growth and decay of the UHI over each specific synoptic setting. Over four contiguous days under the effect of a lingering high-pressure event, we observed that the onset of cooling was always at about 2 h before sunset. The reference site attained mean cooling rate of -2.6 °C h-1 at sunset, whilst the maximum urban rate was -1.2 °C h-1. Under a 3-day cold anticyclone episode, cooling also started about 2 h before sunset, and the difference between maximum rural (-2.0 °C h-1) and urban (-1.0 °C h-1) cooling rates diminished. Under cold-front conditions, the cooling rate was homogeneous for all sites and swang about zero throughout the day. The air temperature has a memory effect under lingering high-pressure conditions which intensified the UHI, in addition to the larger heat storage in the urban area. Cold anticyclone conditions promoted the development of the UHI; however, the cold air pool and relatively light winds smoothed out its intensity. Under the influence of cold fronts, the urban fabric had little effect on the city's air temperature field, and the UHI was imperceptible.

Remote Sensing and Spatial Growth Modeling Coupled with Air Quality Modeling to Assess the Impact of Atlanta, Georgia on the Local and Regional Environment

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Quattrochi, Dale A.; Estes, Maurice G., Jr.; Crosson, William; Khan, Maudood

2006-01-01

The growth of cities, both in population and areal extent, appears as an inexorable process. Urbanization continues at a rapid rate, and it is estimated that by the year 2025, 80 percent of the world s population will live in cities. Directly aligned with the expansion of cities is urban sprawl. Urban expansion has profound impacts on a host of biophysical, environmental, and atmospheric processes. A reduction in air quality over cities is a major result of these impacts. Strategies that can be directly or indirectly implemented to help remediate air quality problems in cities and that can be accepted by political decision makers and the general public are now being explored to help bring down air pollutants and improve air quality. The urban landscape is inherently complex and this complexity is not adequately captured in air quality models, particularly the Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ) model that is used to assess whether urban areas are in attainment of EPA air quality standards, primarily for ground level ozone. This inadequacy of the CMAQ model to sufficiently respond to the heterogeneous nature of the urban landscape can impact how well the model predicts ozone pollutant levels over metropolitan areas and ultimately, whether cities exceed EPA ozone air quality standards. We are exploring the utility of high-resolution remote sensing data and urban spatial growth modeling (SGM) projections as improved inputs to the meteorology component of the CMAQ model focusing on the Atlanta, Georgia metropolitan area as a case study. These growth projections include "business as usual" and "smart growth" scenarios out to 2030. The growth projections illustrate the effects of employing urban heat island mitigation strategies, such as increasing tree canopy and albedo across the Atlanta metro area, which in turn, are used to model how ozone and air temperature can potentially be moderated as impacts on elevating ground-level ozone, as opposed to not utilizing heat island mitigation strategies. The National Land Cover Dataset at 30m resolution is being used as the land use/land cover input and aggregated to the 4km scale for the MM5 mesoscale meteorological model and the (CMAQ) modeling schemes. Use of these data have been found to better characterize low density/suburban development as compared with USGS 1km land use/land cover data that have traditionally been used in modeling. Air quality prediction for future scenarios to 2030 is being facilitated by land use projections using a spatial growth model. Land use projections were developed using the 2030 Regional Transportation Plan developed by the Atlanta Regional Commission, the regional planning agency for the area. This allows the State Environmental Protection agency to evaluate how these transportation plans will affect future air quality. The coupled SGM and air quality modeling approach provides insight on what the impacts of Atlanta s growth will be on the local and regional environment and exists as a mechanism that can be used by policy makers to make rationale decisions on urban growth and sustainability for the metropolitan area in the future.

Secular change in the growth status of urban and rural schoolchildren aged 6-13 years in Oaxaca, southern Mexico.

PubMed

Malina, Robert M; Peña Reyes, Maria Eugenia; Little, Bertis B

2008-01-01

Populations in the state of Oaxaca in southern Mexico are at high risk for malnutrition and marginalization. The study compared secular changes in the growth status of urban and rural schoolchildren in the Valley of Oaxaca between the 1970s and 2000. Cross-sectional surveys of boys and girls aged 6-13 years (n = 1472) were carried out in an urban colonia populares in 1972 and 2000 and a rural indigenous community in 1978 and 2000. Height, sitting height and weight were measured; leg length, sitting height ratio, BMI, and prevalence of stunting, underweight, overweight and obesity were calculated. Sex-specific ANCOVA controlling for age was used. Both urban and rural children experienced significant secular gains in linear dimensions, body weight and the BMI between the 1970s and 2000. Estimated rates of secular gain overlapped considerably between urban and rural children. Secular gains in the BMI are significantly greater in urban than rural boys and girls. Urban-rural differences in linear dimensions and body weight in 2000 compared to the 1970s do not differ in either sex, but urban-rural differences in the BMI are greater in boys and girls in 2000 compared to the 1970s. The prevalence of stunting declined while that of overweight and obesity increased. Significant secular increases in body size occurred between the 1970s and 2000, but there was considerable overlap between urban and rural children. Only secular gains in the BMI were significantly greater in urban than rural boys and girls and the magnitudes of urban-rural differences in the BMI were greater in 2000 than in the 1970s.

The Effects of Demand-Responsive Parking on Transit Usage and Congestion: Evidence From Sfpark

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2017-09-01

Parking is a serious issue in many urban areas, especially those experiencing rapid population growth. To address this problem, some cities have implemented demand-responsive pricing programs, where parking prices vary depending on the occupancy rate...

Quantitative Risk Mapping of Urban Gas Pipeline Networks Using GIS

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Azari, P.; Karimi, M.

2017-09-01

Natural gas is considered an important source of energy in the world. By increasing growth of urbanization, urban gas pipelines which transmit natural gas from transmission pipelines to consumers, will become a dense network. The increase in the density of urban pipelines will influence probability of occurring bad accidents in urban areas. These accidents have a catastrophic effect on people and their property. Within the next few years, risk mapping will become an important component in urban planning and management of large cities in order to decrease the probability of accident and to control them. Therefore, it is important to assess risk values and determine their location on urban map using an appropriate method. In the history of risk analysis of urban natural gas pipeline networks, the pipelines has always been considered one by one and their density in urban area has not been considered. The aim of this study is to determine the effect of several pipelines on the risk value of a specific grid point. This paper outlines a quantitative risk assessment method for analysing the risk of urban natural gas pipeline networks. It consists of two main parts: failure rate calculation where the EGIG historical data are used and fatal length calculation that involves calculation of gas release and fatality rate of consequences. We consider jet fire, fireball and explosion for investigating the consequences of gas pipeline failure. The outcome of this method is an individual risk and is shown as a risk map.

Observing the Vertical Dimensions of Singapore's Urban Heat Island

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chow, W. T. L.; Ho, D. X. Q.

2015-12-01

In numerous cities, measurements of urban warmth in most urban heat island (UHI) studies are generally constrained towards surface or near-surface (<2 m above ground) levels across horizontal variations in land use and land cover. However, there has been hitherto limited attention towards the measurement of vertical temperature profiles extending from the urban surface through to the urban boundary layer. Knowledge of these profiles, through how they vary over different local urban morphologies, and develop with respect to synoptic meteorological conditions, are important towards several aspects of UHI research; these include validating modelling urban canopy lapse rate profiles or estimating the growth of urban plumes. In this study, we utilised temperature sensors attached onto remote controlled aerial quadcopter platforms to measure urban temperature and humidity profiles in Singapore, which is a rapidly urbanizing major tropical metropolis. These profiles were measured from the surface to ~100 m above ground level, a height which includes all of the urban canopy and parts of the urban boundary layer. Initial results indicate significant variations in stability measured over different land uses (e.g. urban park, high-rise residential, commercial); these profiles are also temporally dynamic, depending on the time of day and larger-scale weather conditions.

The effect of urban growth on landscape-scale restoration for a fire-dependent songbird.

PubMed

Pickens, Bradley A; Marcus, Jeffrey F; Carpenter, John P; Anderson, Scott; Taillie, Paul J; Collazo, Jaime A

2017-04-15

A landscape-scale perspective on restoration ecology has been advocated, but few studies have informed restoration with landscape metrics or addressed broad-scale threats. Threats such as urban growth may affect restoration effectiveness in a landscape context. Here, we studied longleaf pine savanna in the rapidly urbanizing southeastern United States where a habitat-specialist bird, Bachman's sparrow (Peucaea aestivalis), is closely associated with savanna vegetation structure and frequent fire. Our objectives were to construct a species distribution model for Bachman's sparrow, determine the relationship between fire and urbanization, quantify the urban growth effect (2010-2090), identify potential restoration areas, and determine the interaction between restoration potential and urban growth by 2050. Number of patches, patch size, and isolation metrics were used to evaluate scenarios. The species distribution model was 88% accurate and emphasized multiscale canopy cover characteristics, fire, and percent habitat. Fires were less common <600 m from urban areas, and this fire suppression effect exacerbated urban growth effects. For restoration scenarios, canopy cover reduction by 30% resulted in nearly double the amount of habitat compared to the prescribed fire scenario; canopy cover reduction resulted in larger patch sizes and less patch isolation compared to current conditions. The effect of urban growth on restoration scenarios was unequal. Seventy-four percent of restoration areas from the prescribed fire scenario overlapped with projected urban growth, whereas the canopy cover reduction scenario only overlapped by 9%. We emphasize the benefits of simultaneously considering the effects of urban growth and landscape-scale restoration potential to promote a landscape with greater patch sizes and less isolation. Copyright © 2017 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.

Urban expansion dynamics and natural habitat loss in China: a multiscale landscape perspective.

PubMed

He, Chunyang; Liu, Zhifeng; Tian, Jie; Ma, Qun

2014-09-01

China's extensive urbanization has resulted in a massive loss of natural habitat, which is threatening the nation's biodiversity and socioeconomic sustainability. A timely and accurate understanding of natural habitat loss caused by urban expansion will allow more informed and effective measures to be taken for the conservation of biodiversity. However, the impact of urban expansion on natural habitats is not well-understood, primarily due to the lack of accurate spatial information regarding urban expansion across China. In this study, we proposed an approach that can be used to accurately summarize the dynamics of urban expansion in China over two recent decades (1992-2012), by integrating data on nighttime light levels, a vegetation index, and land surface temperature. The natural habitat loss during the time period was evaluated at the national, ecoregional, and local scales. The results revealed that China had experienced extremely rapid urban growth from 1992 to 2012 with an average annual growth rate of 8.74%, in contrast with the global average of 3.20%. The massive urban expansion has resulted in significant natural habitat loss in some areas in China. Special attention needs to be paid to the Pearl River Delta, where 25.79% or 1518 km(2) of the natural habitat and 41.99% or 760 km(2) of the local wetlands were lost during 1992-2012. This raises serious concerns about species viability and biodiversity. Effective policies and regulations must be implemented and enforced to sustain regional and national development in the context of rapid urbanization. © 2014 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

High-resolution mapping of biogenic carbon fluxes to improve urban CO2 monitoring, reporting, and verification

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hardiman, B. S.; Hutyra, L.; Gately, C.; Raciti, S. M.

2014-12-01

Urban areas are home to 80% of the US population and 70% of energy related fossil fuel emissions originate from urban areas. Efforts to accurately monitor, report, and verify anthropogenic CO2 missions using atmospheric measurements require reliable partitioning of anthropogenic and biogenic sources. Anthropogenic emissions peak during the daytime, coincident with biogenic drawdown of CO2. In contrast, biogenic respiration emissions peak at night when anthropogenic emissions are lower. This temporal aliasing of fluxes requires careful modeling of both biogenic and anthropogenic fluxes for accurate source attribution through inverse modeling. Biogenic fluxes in urban regions can be a significant component of the urban carbon cycle. However, vegetation in urban areas is subject to longer growing seasons, reduced competition, higher rates of nitrogen deposition, and altered patterns of biomass inputs, all interacting to elevate C turnover rates relative to analogous non-urban ecosystems. These conditions suggest that models that ignore urban vegetation or base biogenic flux estimates on non-urban forests are likely to produce inaccurate estimates of anthropogenic CO2 emissions. Biosphere models often omit biogenic fluxes in urban areas despite potentially extensive vegetation coverage. For example, in Massachusetts, models mask out as much as 40% of land area, effectively assuming they have no biological flux. This results in a ~32% underestimate of aboveground biomass (AGB) across the state as compared to higher resolution vegetation maps. Our analysis suggests that some common biomass maps may underestimate forest biomass by ~520 Tg C within the state of Massachusetts. Moreover, omitted portions of the state have the highest population density, indicating that we know least about regions where most people live. We combine remote sensing imagery of urban vegetation cover with ground surveys of tree growth and mortality to improve estimates of aboveground biomass and biogenic flux rates. Updated biogenic flux rates are combined with spatially explicit anthropogenic flux estimates and a network of urban CO2 monitoring sites as the foundation for a novel carbon monitoring system spanning the Boston-Washington D.C. metropolitan corridor.

The growth and survival of plants in urban green roofs in a dry climate.

PubMed

Razzaghmanesh, M; Beecham, S; Kazemi, F

2014-04-01

Green roofs as one of the components of water-sensitive urban design have become widely used in recent years. This paper describes performance monitoring of four prototype-scale experimental green roofs in a northern suburb of Adelaide, South Australia, undertaken over a 1-year period. Four species of indigenous Australian ground cover and grass species comprising Carpobrotus rossii, Lomandra longifolia 'Tanika,' Dianella caerula 'Breeze' and Myoporum parvifolium were planted in extensive and intensive green roof configurations using two different growing media. The first medium consisted of crushed brick, scoria, coir fibre and composted organics while the second comprised scoria, composted pine bark and hydro-cell flakes. Plant growth indices including vertical and horizontal growth rate, leaf succulence, shoot and root biomasses, water use efficiency and irrigation regimes were studied during a 12-month period. The results showed that the succulent species, C. rossii, can best tolerate the hot, dry summer conditions of South Australia, and this species showed a 100% survival rate and had the maximum horizontal growth rate, leaf succulence, shoot biomass and water use efficiency. All of the plants in the intensive green roofs with the crushed brick mix media survived during the term of this study. It was shown that stormwater can be used as a source of irrigation water for green roofs during 8 months of the year in Adelaide. However, supplementary irrigation is required for some of the plants over a full annual cycle. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Understanding Urban Development In Canada. "Understanding Economics" Series No. 3.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Plunkett, T. J.

This booklet for Canadian secondary school students examines urbanization and its relationship to other factors of the economy. Five sections analyze urbanization, the pattern of urban development, community needs, the management of urban growth, and urban governance. Part I traces the growth of the Canadian population, noting that 10% of the…

Urban Household Characteristics and Dietary Diversity: An Analysis of Food Security in Accra, Ghana.

PubMed

Codjoe, Samuel Nii Ardey; Okutu, David; Abu, Mumuni

2016-06-01

The world's population is increasingly becoming urbanized. If the current urban growth rate is to continue, new and unprecedented challenges for food security will be inevitable. Dietary diversity has been used to ascertain food security status albeit at the multicountry and country levels. Thus, household-level studies in urban settings, particularly in sub-Sahara African, are few. Yet, it is imperative that assessments of food security are undertaken particularly in urban settings, due to the projected fast rate of urbanization and the challenges of attaining food security. To examine household characteristics and dietary diversity. The study uses data from 452 households from the second round of the Regional Institute for Population Studies (RIPS) EDULINK urban poverty and health study. Bivariate and multivariate analyses are undertaken. Mean dietary diversity for all households is 6.8. Vegetables have the highest diversity, followed by cereal-based and grain products. Household characteristics that have statistically significant associations with dietary diversity include sex and level of education of household head, household wealth quintile, and source of food. There is high dietary diversity in the study communities of Accra but low consumption of foods rich in micronutrient, such as fruits and milk/dairy products. The study brings to fore issues related to resource-disadvantaged entities of the urban system, namely, females, poor households, and the non-educated who have food insecurity problems. © The Author(s) 2016.

Cervical cancer, a disease of poverty: mortality differences between urban and rural areas in Mexico.

PubMed

Palacio-Mejía, Lina Sofía; Rangel-Gómez, Gudelia; Hernández-Avila, Mauricio; Lazcano-Ponce, Eduardo

2003-01-01

To examine cervical cancer mortality rates in Mexican urban and rural communities, and their association with poverty-related factors, during 1990-2000. We analyzed data from national databases to obtain mortality trends and regional variations using a Poisson regression model based on location (urban-rural). During 1990-2000 a total of 48,761 cervical cancer (CC) deaths were reported in Mexico (1990 = 4,280 deaths/year; 2000 = 4,620 deaths/year). On average, 12 women died every 24 hours, with 0.76% yearly annual growth in CC deaths. Women living in rural areas had 3.07 higher CC mortality risks compared to women with urban residence. Comparison of state CC mortality rates (reference = Mexico City) found higher risk in states with lower socio-economic development (Chiapas, relative risk [RR] = 10.99; Nayarit, RR = 10.5). Predominantly rural states had higher CC mortality rates compared to Mexico City (lowest rural population). CC mortality is associated with poverty-related factors, including lack of formal education, unemployment, low socio-economic level, rural residence and insufficient access to healthcare. This indicates the need for eradication of regional differences in cancer detection. This paper is available too at: http://www.insp.mx/salud/index.html.

40 CFR 81.338 - Oregon.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-07-01

... Urban Growth Boundary Medford Area Jackson County (part) 9/23/02 Attainment Medford Urban Growth... Intrastate Unclassifiable/Attainment Crook County Deschutes County Hood River County Jefferson County Klamath County (part) area outside Urban Growth Boundary Lake County Sherman County Wasco County AQCR 191 Eastern...

Nigerian population growth and its implications for economic development.

PubMed

Okpala, A O

1990-12-01

The population of Nigeria is growing at a rate of 3.75%/year indicating a doubling of the population every 22 years. Demographers estimated the population to be 91,178,000 in 1985. Even though population density is high (288 people/square mile), it is not equally distributed. It is highest in the south and southwest urban areas such as Lagos (1045 people/square mile) and lowest in the northeast (75 people/square mile). Moreover rural-urban migration is growing. A major reason for rural-urban migration is the dual nature of the economy in Nigeria. In urban areas, economic development brings about higher standards of living, but, in rural areas, a subsistence economy predominates. This coupled with rapid population growth results in small or no growth in per capita income. Only if the government were to integrate redistribution policies into complete economic development plans should it consider redistributing the population. It should stress rural development (e.g., incentives for firms to set up in rural areas). Further it should move some government offices to rural areas. The government also needs to adopt population policies encouraging the lowering of fertility levels. If it were to provide education through the secondary and prevocational education level free of charge, educated women will lower their fertility. Sex education should be included in the curriculum. Further the government must play an active role in family planning programs, especially educating rural women about family planning. It should also use the mass media to promote small family size, but it should not dictate family size. It also needs to recognize that population growth puts much pressure on the environment. For example, population growth causes soil erosion, nutrient exhaustion, rapid deforestation, and other problems which render the land unusable for agriculture.

Urban containment policies and the protection of natural areas: the case of Seoul's greenbelt

Treesearch

David N. Bengston; Yeo-Chang Youn

2006-01-01

Countries around the world have responded to the problems associated with rapid urban growth and increasingly land-consumptive development patterns by creating a wide range of policy instruments designed to manage urban growth. Of the array of growth management techniques, urban containment policies are considered by some to be a promising approach. This paper focuses...

Spatiotemporal variability of urban growth factors: A global and local perspective on the megacity of Mumbai

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shafizadeh-Moghadam, Hossein; Helbich, Marco

2015-03-01

The rapid growth of megacities requires special attention among urban planners worldwide, and particularly in Mumbai, India, where growth is very pronounced. To cope with the planning challenges this will bring, developing a retrospective understanding of urban land-use dynamics and the underlying driving-forces behind urban growth is a key prerequisite. This research uses regression-based land-use change models - and in particular non-spatial logistic regression models (LR) and auto-logistic regression models (ALR) - for the Mumbai region over the period 1973-2010, in order to determine the drivers behind spatiotemporal urban expansion. Both global models are complemented by a local, spatial model, the so-called geographically weighted logistic regression (GWLR) model, one that explicitly permits variations in driving-forces across space. The study comes to two main conclusions. First, both global models suggest similar driving-forces behind urban growth over time, revealing that LRs and ALRs result in estimated coefficients with comparable magnitudes. Second, all the local coefficients show distinctive temporal and spatial variations. It is therefore concluded that GWLR aids our understanding of urban growth processes, and so can assist context-related planning and policymaking activities when seeking to secure a sustainable urban future.

The use of LANDSAT data to monitor the urban growth of Sao Paulo Metropolitan area

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Dejesusparada, N. (Principal Investigator); Niero, M.; Lombardo, M. A.; Foresti, C.

1982-01-01

Urban growth from 1977 to 1979 of the region between Billings and the Guarapiranga reservoir was mapped and the problematic urban areas identified using several LANDSAT products. Visual and automatic interpretation techniques were applied to the data. Computer compatible tapes of LANDSAT multispectral scanner data were analyzed through the maximum likelihood Gaussian algorithm. The feasibility of monitoring fast urban growth by remote sensing techniques for efficient urban planning and control is demonstrated.

Urban transformation of a metropolis and its environmental impacts: a case study in Shanghai.

PubMed

Tian, Zhan; Cao, Guiying; Shi, Jun; McCallum, Ian; Cui, Linli; Fan, Dongli; Li, Xinhu

2012-06-01

The aim of this paper is to understand the sustainability of urban spatial transformation in the process of rapid urbanization, and calls for future research on the demographic and economic dimensions of climate change. Shanghai towards its transformation to a metropolis has experienced vast socioeconomic and ecological change and calls for future research on the impacts of demographic and economic dimensions on climate change. We look at the major questions (1) to explore economic and demographic growth, land use and land-cover changes in the context of rapid economic and city growth, and (2) to analyze how the demography and economic growth have been associated with the local air temperature and vegetation. We examine urban growth, land use and land-cover changes in the context of rapid economic development and urbanization. We assess the impact of urban expansion on local air temperature and vegetation. The analysis is based on time series data of land use, normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI), and meteorological, demographic and economic data. The results indicate that urban growth has been driven by mass immigration; as a consequence of economic growth and urban expansion, a large amount of farmland has been converted to paved road and residential buildings. Furthermore, the difference between air temperature in urban and exurban areas has increased rapidly. The decrease of high mean annual NDVI has mainly occurred around the dense urban areas.

Decades of urban growth and development on the Asian megadeltas

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Small, Christopher; Sousa, Daniel; Yetman, Gregory; Elvidge, Christopher; MacManus, Kytt

2018-06-01

The current and ongoing expansion of urban areas worldwide represents the largest mass migration in human history. It is well known that the world's coastal zones are associated with large and growing concentrations of population, urban development and economic activity. Among coastal environments, deltas have long been recognized for both benefits and hazards. This is particularly true on the Asian megadeltas, where the majority of the world's deltaic populations reside. Current trends in urban migration, combined with demographic momentum suggest that the already large populations on the Asian megadeltas will continue to grow. In this study, we combine recently released gridded population density (circa 2010) with a newly developed night light change product (1992 to 2012) and a digital elevation model to quantify the spatial distribution of population and development on the nine Asian megadeltas. Bivariate distributions of population as functions of elevation and coastal proximity quantify potential exposure of deltaic populations to flood and coastal hazards. Comparison of these distributions for the Asian megadeltas show very different patterns of habitation with peak population elevations ranging from 2 to 11 m above sea level over a wide range of coastal proximities. Over all nine megadeltas, over 174 million people reside below a peak population elevation of 7 m. Changes in the spatial extent of anthropogenic night light from 1992 to 2012 show widely varying extents and changes of lighted urban development. All of the deltas except the Indus show the greatest increases in night light brightness occurring at elevations <10 m. At global and continental scales, growth of settlements of all sizes takes the form of evolving spatial networks of development. Spatial networks of lighted urban development in Asia show power law scaling properties consistent with other continents, but much higher rates of growth. The three largest networks of development in China all occur on deltas and adjacent lowlands, and are growing faster than the rest of the urban network in China. Since 2000, the Huanghe Delta + North China Plain urban network has surpassed the Japanese urban network in size and may soon connect with the Changjiang Delta + Yangtze River urban network to form the largest conurbation in Asia.

A new urban landscape in East-Southeast Asia, 2000-2010

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schneider, A.; Mertes, C. M.; Tatem, A. J.; Tan, B.; Sulla-Menashe, D.; Graves, S. J.; Patel, N. N.; Horton, J. A.; Gaughan, A. E.; Rollo, J. T.; Schelly, I. H.; Stevens, F. R.; Dastur, A.

2015-03-01

East-Southeast Asia is currently one of the fastest urbanizing regions in the world, with countries such as China climbing from 20 to 50% urbanized in just a few decades. By 2050, these countries are projected to add 1 billion people, with 90% of that growth occurring in cities. This population shift parallels an equally astounding amount of built-up land expansion. However, spatially-and temporally-detailed information on regional-scale changes in urban land or population distribution do not exist; previous efforts have been either sample-based, focused on one country, or drawn conclusions from datasets with substantial temporal/spatial mismatch and variability in urban definitions. Using consistent methodology, satellite imagery and census data for >1000 agglomerations in the East-Southeast Asian region, we show that urban land increased >22% between 2000 and 2010 (from 155 000 to 189 000 km2), an amount equivalent to the area of Taiwan, while urban populations climbed >31% (from 738 to 969 million). Although urban land expanded at unprecedented rates, urban populations grew more rapidly, resulting in increasing densities for the majority of urban agglomerations, including those in both more developed (Japan, South Korea) and industrializing nations (China, Vietnam, Indonesia). This result contrasts previous sample-based studies, which conclude that cities are universally declining in density. The patterns and rates of change uncovered by these datasets provide a unique record of the massive urban transition currently underway in East-Southeast Asia that is impacting local-regional climate, pollution levels, water quality/availability, arable land, as well as the livelihoods and vulnerability of populations in the region.

Analyzing growth and mortality in a subtropical urban forest ecosystem

Treesearch

Alicia B. Lawrence; Fancisco J. Escobedo; Christina L. Staudhammera; Wayne Zipperer Zipperer

2012-01-01

Information on urban tree growth, mortality and in-growth is currently being used to estimate urban forest structure changes and ecosystem services such as carbon sequestration. This study reports on tree diameter growth and mortality in 65 plots distributed among four land use categories, which were established in 2005/2006 in Gainesville, Florida, USA and were re-...

Urban land use and geohazards in the Itanagar Capital city, Arunachal Pradesh, India: Need for geoethics in urban disaster resilience governance in a changing climate

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Acharjee, Swapna

2013-04-01

The capital city, Itanagar, Arunachal Pradesh, India is exposed to the multiple geohazards as the city is located in the region which experiences extreme physical phenomenon due to changing climate in the tectonically active North-Eastern Himalayas. The geohazards in Itanagar includes landslides, floods, soil erosion and earthquakes. The high decadal growth rate of 111.36% in 1991-2001 census has brought in many challenges with respect to the capital city developmental planning. Due to rapid and haphazard growth in urban land use the people residing in the city are gradually becoming more vulnerable to the geohazards in the past decades. The city condition at present has raised issues of grave concern related to effective hazard management. It is observed that geoscientific approach is violated at many places in the urban developmental activities along the central spine, the National Highway-52A of the capital city. There is an urgent need of geoscientists to apprise the urban populace about land suitability and stability in terms of rock types, soil, slope, geomorphology, groundwater condition etc. and the vulnerability of the existing urban land use to landslides, flood, soil erosion and earthquakes. In this paper major issue, critical issues and elements at risk are discussed in the context of ethics in geohazard management and developmental planning for urban disaster resilience governance in a changing climate.

Urbanization and health in developing countries: a systematic review.

PubMed

Eckert, Sophie; Kohler, Stefan

2014-01-01

Future population growth will take place predominantly in cities of the developing world. The impact of urbanization on health is discussed controversially. We review recent research on urban-rural and intra-urban health differences in developing countries and investigate whether a health advantage was found for urban areas. We systematically searched the databases JSTOR, PubMed, ScienceDirect and SSRN for studies that compare health status in urban and rural areas. The studies had to examine selected World Health Organization health indicators. Eleven studies of the association between urbanization and the selected health indicators in developing countries met our selection criteria. Urbanization was associated with a lower risk of undernutrition but a higher risk of overweight in children. A lower total fertility rate and lower odds of giving birth were found for urban areas. The association between urbanization and life expectancy was positive but insignificant. Common risk factors for chronic diseases were more prevalent in urban areas. Urban-rural differences in mortality from communicable diseases depended on the disease studied. Several health outcomes were correlated with urbanization in developing countries. Urbanization may improve some health problems developing countries face and worsen others. Therefore, urbanization itself should not be embraced as a solution to health problems but should be accompanied by an informed and reactive health policy. Copyright © 2013 Longwoods Publishing.

Vegetation growth enhancement in urban environments of the Conterminous United States.

PubMed

Jia, Wenxiao; Zhao, Shuqing; Liu, Shuguang

2018-05-19

Cities are natural laboratories for studying vegetation responses to global environmental changes because of their climate, atmospheric, and biogeochemical conditions. However, few holistic studies have been conducted on the impact of urbanization on vegetation growth. We decomposed the overall impacts of urbanization on vegetation growth into direct (replacement of original land surfaces by impervious built-up) and indirect (urban environments) components, using a conceptual framework and remotely-sensed data for 377 metropolitan statistical areas (MSAs) in the conterminous United States (CONUS) in 2001, 2006, and 2011. Results showed that urban pixels are often greener than expected given the amount of paved surface they contain. The vegetation growth enhancement due to indirect effects occurred in 88.4%, 90.8% and 92.9% of urban bins in 2001, 2006 and 2011, respectively. By defining offset value as the ratio of the absolute indirect and direct impact, we obtained that growth enhancement due to indirect effects compensated for about 29.2%, 29.5% and 31.0% of the reduced productivity due to loss of vegetated surface area on average in 2001, 2006, and 2011, respectively. Vegetation growth responses to urbanization showed little temporal variation but large regional differences with higher offset value in the western CONUS than in the eastern CONUS. Our study highlights the prevalence of vegetation growth enhancement in urban environments and the necessity of differentiating various impacts of urbanization on vegetation growth, and calls for tailored field experiments to understand the relative contributions of various driving forces to vegetation growth and predict vegetation responses to future global change using cities as harbingers. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

Spatio-temporal variability of the atmospheric boundary layer depth over the Paris agglomeration: An assessment of the impact of the urban heat island intensity

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pal, S.; Xueref-Remy, I.; Ammoura, L.; Chazette, P.; Gibert, F.; Royer, P.; Dieudonné, E.; Dupont, J.-C.; Haeffelin, M.; Lac, C.; Lopez, M.; Morille, Y.; Ravetta, F.

2012-12-01

Within the framework of a French nationally funded project (CO2-MEGAPARIS) for quantifying the CO2 emissions of the Paris area, a lidar-based experimental investigation of the variability of the atmospheric boundary layer (ABL) depths was performed over four days in March 2011 under clear sky conditions. The prevailing synoptic settings were mainly characterized by anti-cyclonic situations with low wind. The key aim of this paper is to assess the impact of the urban heat island intensity (UHII) on the spatio-temporal variability of the ABL depths over the Paris megacity. A network of fixed aerosol lidars was deployed inside the city and in the vicinity of sub-urban and rural areas. Additionally, the spatial heterogeneity of the nocturnal boundary layer (NBL) depths over greater Paris area is addressed, thanks in particular, to the deployment of a 355-nm elastic lidar in a mobile van to measure the aerosol distributions. Radiosonde-derived profiles (twice a day) of thermodynamic variables over the sub-urban site helped investigate the temperature inversion above ground and hence to compare the lidar-derived ABL depths. Comparing these two results, an excellent concordance was found with a correlation coefficient of 0.994. Five important factors closely related to the ABL circulation, namely, spatio-temporal variability of the ABL depths, growth rate of the ABL depths, entrainment zone thickness, and near-surface temperature fields including resultant UHII were considered to infer the urban-rural contrasts. The mean NBL depth over the urban area was on average 63 m (45%) higher than its adjacent sub-urban area which was, on occasion, as much as (74 m) 58% higher mainly due to the effect of UHII. Daytime well-mixed convective boundary layer and associated strong turbulent mixing near its top over the urban area showed higher entrainment zone thickness (326 m) than over sub-urban (234 m) and rural (200 m) areas. Temperature growth rates during sunrise increased up to more than 3 °C h-1 over the sub-urban area while over the urban region it was 2.5 °C h-1 or even less. The ABL depths over the urban site decayed more slowly (500 m h-1) than over the sub-urban area (600 m h-1) during the late afternoon transition period suggesting an impact of the UHII on the ABL dynamics over the urban area.

The ecological foundations of transmission potential and vector-borne disease in urban landscapes.

PubMed

LaDeau, Shannon L; Allan, Brian F; Leisnham, Paul T; Levy, Michael Z

2015-07-01

Urban transmission of arthropod-vectored disease has increased in recent decades. Understanding and managing transmission potential in urban landscapes requires integration of sociological and ecological processes that regulate vector population dynamics, feeding behavior, and vector-pathogen interactions in these unique ecosystems. Vectorial capacity is a key metric for generating predictive understanding about transmission potential in systems with obligate vector transmission. This review evaluates how urban conditions, specifically habitat suitability and local temperature regimes, and the heterogeneity of urban landscapes can influence the biologically-relevant parameters that define vectorial capacity: vector density, survivorship, biting rate, extrinsic incubation period, and vector competence.Urban landscapes represent unique mosaics of habitat. Incidence of vector-borne disease in urban host populations is rarely, if ever, evenly distributed across an urban area. The persistence and quality of vector habitat can vary significantly across socio-economic boundaries to influence vector species composition and abundance, often generating socio-economically distinct gradients of transmission potential across neighborhoods.Urban regions often experience unique temperature regimes, broadly termed urban heat islands (UHI). Arthropod vectors are ectothermic organisms and their growth, survival, and behavior are highly sensitive to environmental temperatures. Vector response to UHI conditions is dependent on regional temperature profiles relative to the vector's thermal performance range. In temperate climates UHI can facilitate increased vector development rates while having countervailing influence on survival and feeding behavior. Understanding how urban heat island (UHI) conditions alter thermal and moisture constraints across the vector life cycle to influence transmission processes is an important direction for both empirical and modeling research.There remain persistent gaps in understanding of vital rates and drivers in mosquito-vectored disease systems, and vast holes in understanding for other arthropod vectored diseases. Empirical studies are needed to better understand the physiological constraints and socio-ecological processes that generate heterogeneity in critical transmission parameters, including vector survival and fitness. Likewise, laboratory experiments and transmission models must evaluate vector response to realistic field conditions, including variability in sociological and environmental conditions.

Urban environment of New York City promotes growth in northern red oak seedlings.

PubMed

Searle, Stephanie Y; Turnbull, Matthew H; Boelman, Natalie T; Schuster, William S F; Yakir, Dan; Griffin, Kevin L

2012-04-01

Urbanization is accelerating across the globe, elevating the importance of studying urban ecology. Urban environments exhibit several factors affecting plant growth and function, including high temperatures (particularly at night), CO(2) concentrations and atmospheric nitrogen deposition. We investigated the effects of urban environments on growth in Quercus rubra L. seedlings. We grew seedlings from acorns for one season at four sites along an urban-rural transect from Central Park in New York City to the Catskill Mountains in upstate New York (difference in average maximum temperatures of 2.4 °C; difference in minimum temperatures of 4.6 °C). In addition, we grew Q. rubra seedlings in growth cabinets (GCs) mimicking the seasonal differential between the city and rural sites (based on a 5-year average). In the field experiment, we found an eightfold increase in biomass in urban-grown seedlings relative to those grown at rural sites. This difference was primarily related to changes in growth allocation. Urban-grown seedlings and seedlings grown at urban temperatures in the GCs exhibited a lower root: shoot ratio (urban ~0.8, rural/remote ~1.5), reducing below-ground carbon costs associated with construction and maintenance. These urban seedlings instead allocated more growth to leaves than did rural-grown seedlings, resulting in 10-fold greater photosynthetic area but no difference in photosynthetic capacity of foliage per unit area. Seedlings grown at urban temperatures in both the field and GC experiments had higher leaf nitrogen concentrations per unit area than those grown at cooler temperatures (increases of 23% in field, 32% in GC). Lastly, we measured threefold greater (13)C enrichment of respired CO(2) (relative to substrate) in urban-grown leaves than at other sites, which may suggest greater allocation of respiratory function to growth over maintenance. It also shows that lack of differences in total R flux in response to environmental conditions may mask dramatic shifts in respiratory functioning. Overall, our findings indicating greater seedling growth and establishment at a critical regeneration phase of forest development may have important implications for the ecology of urban forests as well as the predicted growth of the terrestrial biosphere in temperate regions in response to climate change.

Using GIS for Developing Sustainable Urban Growth Case Kyrenia Region

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kara, C.; Akçit, N.

2018-03-01

It is critical to develop urban layers for analysis sustainable urban development possibilities within planning process. Kyrenia Region has many physical, environmental or economic issues that may danger the growth possibilities in sustainable manner. From this point, this study uses different spatial layers such as slope, distance to roads, distance to central zone, vegetation, soil productivity, environmental protection zones, distance to open/green space, distance to education for supporting sustainable urban growth policies and define suitable areas for urban development within this perspective. The study tries to convert sustainable urban growth policies such as; compact growth, environmental protection, equal accessibility to basic services; into spatial layers and establish proper framework for multi criteria evaluation in Kyrenia Region within using geographical information systems. It shows suitability values for Kyrenia region and constraints zones at final section. It clearly presents the suitable areas for the sustainable urbanization and also unsuitable or risky areas for reducing the possible disasters and may happen in the future.

[A general review of the discussion at the Beijing International Symposium on Population and Development].

PubMed

Ren, Y

1985-03-29

A general review of papers and discussions at the Beijing International Symposium on Population and Development held December 10-14, 1984 is presented. Discussions on population and development included China's population change 1949-1982, impacts of economic change on Tianjin's population, the population factor in economic development policy-making, Japanese population and development, recent population development in Hungary, population and economy, comprehensive long-term population development in Russia, fertility rate change factors in China, Shanghai's population change, and population and economic development in Mian County, Shaanxi Province. Fertility rate changes were discussed, including multinational borderline value assumptions, recent trends in life span fertility rate in China, fertility rate in Jiangsu Province, fertility rate change in Zhejiang Province, and sterilization in Yangjiaping, Thailand. Population and employment discussions included the economic impact of world population change, the 1984 International Population Conference, changes in economically productive population and employment strategy, employed/unemployed populations in Guangdong Province, and the economic composition of China's population. Urbanization discussions covered population and development methodological problems, population growth and economic development in the Pacific region, surplus rural population transfer and economic development in China, urbanization analysis, trends and urban population distribution problems, and Laioning Province population development. Issues in migration, population distribution, and regional population included migration and development of the Great Northwest, internal migration to Beijing, Chinese population growth and economic development by major region, and current population changes of Chinese Tibetans. Under social problems of population, discussions included women's status, development and population change, Shanghai's aging trend, analysis of the aged population, analysis of educational quality in Anhui Province, and the retirement system in Chinese villages.

Substandard Housing.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Milkove, Daniel L., Comp.

1986-01-01

Defines substandard housing and summarizes newly derived data from the 1980 Census showing that 7.5% of all rural occupied housing in the Nation was substandard. Points out regional and rural-urban differences. Notes effects on rural housing of poverty rates, percentage of nonwhite households, average household size, growth in county population,…

Growth in an English population from the Industrial Revolution.

PubMed

Mays, S; Brickley, M; Ives, R

2008-05-01

The rapid urbanization of the Industrial Revolution in 18th-19th century England presented new health challenges. Our aim is to investigate using English skeletal remains whether the living conditions for an urban working class group in the Industrial Revolution negatively impacted upon their skeletal growth compared with a population from a rural agrarian parish. The Industrial Revolution skeletal material is from St Martin's Churchyard, Birmingham (SMB), West Midlands. It dates primarily from the first half of the nineteenth century when Birmingham was a major manufacturing center. The rural group is from Wharram Percy (WP), North Yorkshire, and dates from 10th-19th century AD. The methodology involves plotting diaphyseal bone lengths versus dental age for subadults. No overall difference was found between the two populations in bone length-for-age among the 2- to 18-year cohort. However the younger parts of the SMB cohort were smaller than at WP; the opposite was true of the older parts of the cohort. Growth rate, as inferred from crosssectional data, appeared greater at SMB than at WP. The only result consistent with expectations is the larger bone dimensions in young children from WP, but this likely reflects prolonged breastfeeding at WP not differences in urban and rural environments. That the deleterious health effects that we know accompanied the major transition in human society from a rural agrarian to an urban industrialized living environment should be little manifest in skeletal endochondral growth data is discouraging for those who would use such methodology to monitor health in earlier populations. (c) 2008 Wiley-Liss, Inc.

Prescription opioid poisoning across urban and rural areas: identifying vulnerable groups and geographic areas.

PubMed

Cerdá, Magdalena; Gaidus, Andrew; Keyes, Katherine M; Ponicki, William; Martins, Silvia; Galea, Sandro; Gruenewald, Paul

2017-01-01

To determine (1) whether prescription opioid poisoning (PO) hospital discharges spread across space over time, (2) the locations of 'hot-spots' of PO-related hospital discharges, (3) how features of the local environment contribute to the growth in PO-related hospital discharges and (4) where each environmental feature makes the strongest contribution. Hierarchical Bayesian Poisson space-time analysis to relate annual discharges from community hospitals to postal code characteristics over 10 years. California, USA. Residents of 18 517 postal codes in California, 2001-11. Annual postal code-level counts of hospital discharges due to PO poisoning were related to postal code pharmacy density, measures of medical need for POs (i.e. rates of cancer and arthritis-related hospital discharges), economic stressors (i.e. median household income, percentage of families in poverty and the unemployment rate) and concentration of manual labor industries. PO-related hospital discharges spread from rural and suburban/exurban 'hot-spots' to urban areas. They increased more in postal codes with greater pharmacy density [rate ratio (RR) = 1.03; 95% credible interval (CI) = 1.01, 1.05], more arthritis-related hospital discharges (RR = 1.08; 95% CI = 1.06, 1.11), lower income (RR = 0.85; 95% CI = 0.83, 0.87) and more manual labor industries (RR = 1.15; 95% CI = 1.10, 1.19 for construction; RR = 1.12; 95% CI = 1.04, 1.20 for manufacturing industries). Changes in pharmacy density primarily affected PO-related discharges in urban areas, while changes in income and manual labor industries especially affected PO-related discharges in suburban/exurban and rural areas. Hospital discharge rates for prescription opioid (PO) poisoning spread from rural and suburban/exurban hot-spots to urban areas, suggesting spatial contagion. The distribution of age-related and work-place-related sources of medical need for POs in rural areas and, to a lesser extent, the availability of POs through pharmacies in urban areas, partly explain the growth of PO poisoning across California, USA. © 2016 Society for the Study of Addiction.

Urbanization, cities, and health: The challenges to Nigeria - A review.

PubMed

Aliyu, Alhaji A; Amadu, Lawal

2017-01-01

The Nigerian society is rapidly becoming urban as a result of a multitude of push and pull factors. This has generated urban health crises among city dwellers notably the urban poor. A systematic search of published literature in English was conducted between 1960 and 2015. Published peer review journals, abstracts, Gray literature (technical reports, government documents, reports, etc.), inaugural lectures, and internet articles were reviewed. Manual search of reference lists of selected articles were checked for further relevant studies. The review showed that the pace of urbanization is unprecedented with cities such as Lagos having annual urban growth rate of 5.8%. Urbanization in Nigeria is mainly demographically driven without commensurate socioeconomic dividends and benefits to the urban environment. This has created urban health crises of inadequate water safe supply, squalor and shanty settlements, sanitation, solid waste management, double burden of diseases and inefficient, congested, and risky transport system. In conclusion, when managed carefully, urbanization could reduce hardship and human suffering; on the other hand, it could also increase poverty and squalor. Some laws need to be amended to change the status of poor urban settlements. Urban health development requires intersectoral approach with political will and urban renewal program to make our urban societies sustainable that promote healthy living.

Urbanization, Cities, and Health: The Challenges to Nigeria – A Review

PubMed Central

Aliyu, Alhaji A.; Amadu, Lawal

2017-01-01

The Nigerian society is rapidly becoming urban as a result of a multitude of push and pull factors. This has generated urban health crises among city dwellers notably the urban poor. A systematic search of published literature in English was conducted between 1960 and 2015. Published peer review journals, abstracts, Gray literature (technical reports, government documents, reports, etc.), inaugural lectures, and internet articles were reviewed. Manual search of reference lists of selected articles were checked for further relevant studies. The review showed that the pace of urbanization is unprecedented with cities such as Lagos having annual urban growth rate of 5.8%. Urbanization in Nigeria is mainly demographically driven without commensurate socioeconomic dividends and benefits to the urban environment. This has created urban health crises of inadequate water safe supply, squalor and shanty settlements, sanitation, solid waste management, double burden of diseases and inefficient, congested, and risky transport system. In conclusion, when managed carefully, urbanization could reduce hardship and human suffering; on the other hand, it could also increase poverty and squalor. Some laws need to be amended to change the status of poor urban settlements. Urban health development requires intersectoral approach with political will and urban renewal program to make our urban societies sustainable that promote healthy living. PMID:29063897

Dynamics of Urban Evolution : Volume 1. Inter-Urban Evolution.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

1978-10-01

The concept of "order by fluctuation," that has appeared recently in physico-chemical and biological systems, is applied to the description of urban growth. It is shown that fluctuations play a vital role in the evolutionary process of urban growth. ...

[Towards an urban world].

PubMed

1991-12-01

It has been estimated that by the year 2006, the proportion of the world's population residing in cities will for the 1st time exceed 50%. The entire urban population will be living on 1% of the earth's surface. Rapid growth of cities is largely limited to developing countries, where about 9/10 of urban growth is expected to occur in coming decades. Urban growth in developing countries is due to high fertility as well as inmigration of poor peasants seeking a better life. The current growth rate of Third World cities is 3.6% annually, which signifies doubling of the population in 20 years. Paris required over a century to grow from 547,000 to 3 million, but Lagos grew from 700,000 to 5.6 million in 20 years and Cairo grew by 6.5 million in 34 years. Immoderate population growth places a great strain on cities attempting to provide basic services. Only a few authoritarian governments have succeeded in limiting immigration to their metropolitan areas. Rapidly growing cities have become symbols not only of poverty and social deterioration, but of ecological destruction, contamination, and lack of health. Air pollution, waste management, and the water supply are 3 of the most serious problems of hygiene and sanitation in the world's cities. Air pollution is caused by various factors including car exhausts and coal burning. According to World Health Organization data, less than 60% of Third World housing has access to an adequate sanitary system. 90% of sewage is not treated before elimination. And millions of persons with no potable water supply are obliged to consume contaminated water or to use their scarce resources to buy water. Many cities lose up to 60% of their scarce water supplies through leaking pipes. If these pipes were repaired, and the loss amounted to the 12% typical of the US and Great Britain, this single measure would double the volume of potable water available. The lack of social balance is at the root of urban problems in the Third World. 600 million inhabitants of the Third World live in unhealthy housing. Most housing inhabited by the poor shares 2 characteristics: presence of pathogenic microorganisms because of lack of access to sanitary means of waste disposal, and crowding. The wealthy inhabitants of Third world cities must act to mitigate the problems of urban growth, but external aid will also be needed to raise the quality of the urban environment. The increasing crowdedness of cities should prompt authorities to make family planning services universally available.

Urban change analysis and future growth of Istanbul.

PubMed

Akın, Anıl; Sunar, Filiz; Berberoğlu, Süha

2015-08-01

This study is aimed at analyzing urban change within Istanbul and assessing the city's future growth potential using appropriate approach modeling for the year 2040. Urban growth is a major driving force of land-use change, and spatial and temporal components of urbanization can be identified through accurate spatial modeling. In this context, widely used urban modeling approaches, such as the Markov chain and logistic regression based on cellular automata (CA), were used to simulate urban growth within Istanbul. The distance from each pixel to the urban and road classes, elevation, and slope, together with municipality and land use maps (as an excluded layer), were identified as factors. Calibration data were obtained from remotely sensed data recorded in 1972, 1986, and 2013. Validation was performed by overlaying the simulated and actual 2013 urban maps, and a kappa index of agreement was derived. The results indicate that urban expansion will influence mainly forest areas during the time period of 2013-2040. The urban expansion was predicted as 429 and 327 km(2) with the Markov chain and logistic regression models, respectively.

Kenya.

PubMed

1985-07-01

Kenya's 1st census, in 1948, counted 5.8 million people, the 1979 census counted 15.3 million, and the government estimates the 1984 population at 19.4 million. Development planning began in 1966; the current 5-year plan (1984-1988) stresses manpower, capital, and land development, mainly in the West. The government considers population growth an obstacle to meeting educational, health, housing, food, and employment needs. Kenya's high 4% growth rate results from a high birth rate and a declining death rate. The government intends to reduce population growth to 3.3% by 1988 by 1) informing Kenyans of the benefits of small families and 2) making family planning services easily available, especially in rural areas. Life expectancy is currently 52.9 years and infant mortality is 82/1000. Most health problems relate to childbearing, communicable diseases, malnutrition, and poor sanitation. The current development plan strives to expand services in 1) staff training, information, and education, 2) monitoring and evaluation, 3) contraceptive delivery, and 4) increasing family planning acceptors. Kenyan women desire 7 children and usually have 8. The government is trying to improve the status of women through education and employment, with the expectation of reducing fertility levels. Abortion for contraceptive purposes is illegal; sterilization and contraceptives are available. Neither emigration nor immigration are significant in Kenya. 90% of the people live on 20% of the land. Urban growth is increasing too rapidly and the government's policies to correct the population distribution inequity include 1) urban development, mainly in Western Kenya; 2) encouraging agricultural development; 3) development of export-oriented, resource based, and labor intensive industries; 4) funding development sites outside of Nairobi and Mombasa; 5) stimulating growth in undeveloped areas; 6) improving roads, rails, and ports; and 7) providing adequate water, housing, and energy.

[Employment and urban growth; an application of Czamanski's model to the Mexican case].

PubMed

Verduzco Chavez, B

1991-01-01

The author applies the 1964 model developed by Stanislaw Czamanski, based on theories of urban growth and industrial localization, to the analysis of urban growth in Mexico. "The advantages of this model in its application as a support instrument in the process of urban planning when the information available is incomplete are...discussed...." Census data for 44 cities in Mexico are used. (SUMMARY IN ENG) excerpt

The use of an image registration technique in the urban growth monitoring

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Parada, N. D. J. (Principal Investigator); Foresti, C.; Deoliveira, M. D. L. N.; Niero, M.; Parreira, E. M. D. M. F.

1984-01-01

The use of an image registration program in the studies of urban growth is described. This program permits a quick identification of growing areas with the overlap of the same scene in different periods, and with the use of adequate filters. The city of Brasilia, Brazil, is selected for the test area. The dynamics of Brasilia urban growth are analyzed with the overlap of scenes dated June 1973, 1978 and 1983. The results showed the utilization of the image registration technique for the monitoring of dynamic urban growth.

Shanghai: a study on the spatial growth of population and economy in a Chinese metropolitan area.

PubMed

Zhu, J

1995-01-01

In this study of the growth in population and industry in Shanghai, China, between the 1982 and 1990 censuses, data on administrative divisions was normalized through digitization and spatial analysis. Analysis focused on spatial units, intensity of growth, time period, distance, rate of growth, and direction of spatial growth. The trisection method divided the city into city proper, outskirts, and suburbs. The distance function method considered the distance from center city as a function: exponential, power, trigonometric, logarithmic, and polynomial. Population growth and employment in all sectors increased in the outskirts and suburbs and decreased in the city proper except tertiary sectors. Primary sector employment decreased in all three sections. Employment in the secondary increased faster in the outskirts and suburbs than the total rate of growth of population and employment. In the city secondary sector employment rates decreased faster than total population and employment rates. The tertiary sector had the highest rate of growth in all sections, and employment grew faster than secondary sector rates. Tertiary growth was highest in real estate, finance, and insurance. Industrial growth in the secondary sector was 160.2% in the suburbs, 156.6% in the outskirts, and 80.9% in the city. In the distance function analysis, industry expanded further out than the entire secondary sector. Commerce grew the fastest in areas 15.4 km from center city. Economic growth was faster after economic reforms in 1978. Growth was led by industry and followed by the secondary sector, the tertiary sector, and population. Industrial expansion resulted from inner pressure, political factors controlling size, the social and economic system, and the housing construction and distribution system. Initially sociopsychological factors affected urban concentration.

Integration of Genetic Algorithms and Fuzzy Logic for Urban Growth Modeling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Foroutan, E.; Delavar, M. R.; Araabi, B. N.

2012-07-01

Urban growth phenomenon as a spatio-temporal continuous process is subject to spatial uncertainty. This inherent uncertainty cannot be fully addressed by the conventional methods based on the Boolean algebra. Fuzzy logic can be employed to overcome this limitation. Fuzzy logic preserves the continuity of dynamic urban growth spatially by choosing fuzzy membership functions, fuzzy rules and the fuzzification-defuzzification process. Fuzzy membership functions and fuzzy rule sets as the heart of fuzzy logic are rather subjective and dependent on the expert. However, due to lack of a definite method for determining the membership function parameters, certain optimization is needed to tune the parameters and improve the performance of the model. This paper integrates genetic algorithms and fuzzy logic as a genetic fuzzy system (GFS) for modeling dynamic urban growth. The proposed approach is applied for modeling urban growth in Tehran Metropolitan Area in Iran. Historical land use/cover data of Tehran Metropolitan Area extracted from the 1988 and 1999 Landsat ETM+ images are employed in order to simulate the urban growth. The extracted land use classes of the year 1988 include urban areas, street, vegetation areas, slope and elevation used as urban growth physical driving forces. Relative Operating Characteristic (ROC) curve as an fitness function has been used to evaluate the performance of the GFS algorithm. The optimum membership function parameter is applied for generating a suitability map for the urban growth. Comparing the suitability map and real land use map of 1999 gives the threshold value for the best suitability map which can simulate the land use map of 1999. The simulation outcomes in terms of kappa of 89.13% and overall map accuracy of 95.58% demonstrated the efficiency and reliability of the proposed model.

Iowa Population Trends.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Tait, John L.; Johnson, Arthur H.

The trends in population distribution and the composition of Iowa's population are reported in this document in order to provide the leaders and citizens of Iowa with information to assist them in making decisions relating to growth and development. Birth and death rates, rural and urban residence, population by race, and age structure are…

Urban ecology in a developing world: why advanced socioecological theory needs Africa.

PubMed

McHale, Melissa R; Bunn, David N; Pickett, Steward Ta; Twine, Wayne

2013-12-01

Socioecological theory, developed through the study of urban environments, has recently led to a proliferation of research focusing on comparative analyses of cities. This research emphasis has been concentrated in the more developed countries of the Northern Hemisphere (often referred to as the "Global North"), yet urbanization is now occurring mostly in the developing world, with the fastest rates of growth in sub-Saharan Africa. Countries like South Africa are experiencing a variety of land-cover changes that may challenge current assumptions about the differences between urban and rural environments and about the connectivity of these dynamic socioecological systems. Furthermore, questions concerning ecosystem services, landscape preferences, and conservation - when analyzed through rural livelihood frameworks - may provide insights into the social and ecological resilience of human settlements. Increasing research on urban development processes occurring in Africa, and on patterns of kinship and migration in the less developed countries of the "Global South", will advance a more comprehensive worldview of how future urbanization will influence the progress of sustainable societies.

Health anthropology and urban health research.

PubMed

Obrist, Brigit; VAN Eeuwijk, Peter; Weiss, Mitchell G

2003-12-01

We live in a rapidly urbanising world. According to the 2001 statistics of the United Nations,a the proportion of urban dwellers rose from 30% in 1950 to 47% in 2000 and will probably attain 60% in 2030. Almost 70% of these urban dwellers live in cities of developing regions. At the current rates of urbanisation, the number of city dwellers in the world will equal that of their rural counterparts by 2007. In the late 1980s, researchers became increasingly concerned about the combined impact of rapid urban growth and economic recession on the health of a majority of people in African and Asian cities. Several books established urban health research with a focus on developing countries as a multidisciplinary field of inquiry (Harpham et al., 1988; Salem &Jeannée, 1989). It is now widely recognised that urbanisation per se is not necessarily bad for health, but it becomes so if urban governments fail to establish and support necessary infrastructure and services to protect citizens from environmental hazards and from social, economic and political insecurity.

Demonstrating Change with Astronaut Photography Using Object Based Image Analysis

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hollier, Andi; Jagge, Amy

2017-01-01

Every day, hundreds of images of Earth flood the Crew Earth Observations database as astronauts use hand held digital cameras to capture spectacular frames from the International Space Station. The variety of resolutions and perspectives provide a template for assessing land cover change over decades. We will focus on urban growth in the second fastest growing city in the nation, Houston, TX, using Object-Based Image Analysis. This research will contribute to the land change science community, integrated resource planning, and monitoring of the rapid rate of urban sprawl.

Factors associated with physical growth of children during the first two years of life in rural and urban areas of Vietnam.

PubMed

Nguyen, Huong Thu; Eriksson, Bo; Petzold, Max; Bondjers, Göran; Tran, Toan Khanh; Nguyen, Liem Thanh; Ascher, Henry

2013-09-25

Differences between urban and rural settings can be seen as a very important example of gaps between groups in a population. The aim of this paper is to compare an urban and a rural area regarding child growth during the first two years of life as related to mother's use of antenatal care (ANC), breastfeeding and reported symptoms of illness. The studies were conducted in two Health and Demographic Surveillance Sites, one rural and one urban in Hanoi, Vietnam. We found that children in the urban area grow faster than those in the rural area. There were statistical associations between growth and the education of the mother as well as household resources. There were positive correlations between the number of ANC visits and child growth. We also saw a positive association between growth and early initiation (first hour of life) of breastfeeding but the reported duration of exclusive breastfeeding was not statistically significantly related to growth. Reporting symptoms of illness was negatively correlated to growth, i.e. morbidity is hampering growth. All predictors of growth discussed in this article, ANC, breastfeeding and illness, are associated with social and economic conditions. To improve and maintain good conditions for child growth it is important to strengthen education of mothers and household resources particularly in the rural areas. Globalization and urbanization means obvious risks for increasing gaps not least between urban and rural areas. Improvement of the quality of programs for antenatal care, breastfeeding and integrated management of childhood illness are also needed in Vietnam.

Urban Growth Scenarios of a Future MEGA City: Case Study Ahmedabad

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lehner, A.; Kraus, V.; Steinnocher, K.

2016-06-01

The study of urban areas and their development focuses on cities, their physical and demographic expansion and the tensions and impacts that go along with urban growth. Especially in developing countries and emerging national economies like India, consistent and up to date information or other planning relevant data all too often is not available. With its Smart Cities Mission, the Indian government places great importance on the future developments of Indian urban areas and pays tribute to the large-scale rural to urban migration. The potentials of urban remote sensing and its contribution to urban planning are discussed and related to the Indian Smart Cities Mission. A case study is presented showing urban remote sensing based information products for the city of Ahmedabad. Resulting urban growth scenarios are presented, hotspots identified and future action alternatives proposed.

Influence of urban form on landscape pattern and connectivity in metropolitan regions: a comparative case study of Phoenix, AZ, USA, and Izmir, Turkey.

PubMed

Park, Sohyun; Hepcan, Çiğdem C; Hepcan, Şerif; Cook, Edward A

2014-10-01

Although ecological connectivity conservation in urban areas has recently been recognized as an important issue, less is known about its relationship to urban form and landscape pattern. This study investigates how urban morphology influences regional ecosystem pattern and landscape connectivity. Two metropolitan landscapes, Phoenix, AZ, USA, and Izmir, Turkey, were compared, both of which are fast-growing regions in their national context. A wide range of variables were considered for identifying natural and urban properties. The natural characteristics include typology of urban ecosystems, urban to natural cover ratio, dominant habitat type, urban biodiversity, landscape context, and connectivity conservation efforts. Urban parameters examine urban form, urban extent, urban cover proportion, growth rate, populations, urban gradient, major drivers of urbanization, urban density, and mode/approach of urban development. Twelve landscape metrics were measured and compared across the natural patches. Results show that there is little difference in landscape connectivity in the rural zones of Phoenix and Izmir, although Phoenix has slightly higher connectivity values. The connectivity variance in urbanized areas, however, is significantly dependent on the region. For example, Phoenix urban zones have substantially lower connectivity than either urban or suburban zones in Izmir. Findings demonstrate that small and compact urban settlements with more dense populations are more likely to conserve landscape connectivity compared to multiple-concentric but amalgamated urban form spreading all over the landscape (aka urban sprawl).

Friend or Foe? Urbanization and the Biosphere

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schneider, A.

2008-12-01

The environmental influence of urban areas is still often assumed to be negligible at global scales. Although local environmental conditions such as the urban heat island effect are well-documented, surprisingly little work has focused on cross-scale interactions, or the ways in which local urban processes cumulatively impact global changes. Given the rapid rates of rural-urban migration, economic development and urban spatial expansion, improved systems for measuring, monitoring and modeling the global environmental impacts of cities should receive far greater scientific attention. This presentation will summarize urban environmental issues and impacts at local, regional and global scales and introduce the fundamental concepts and tools needed to measure and respond to these problems. Newly available datasets for the distribution and intensity of urban land use will be introduced, demonstrating the importance of clearly defining 'urbanized' land for empirical studies at the global scale. The negative environmental impacts of urban development will be compared with the often over-looked "positives" of urban growth from a global environmental perspective. Progress in understanding and forecasting the global impacts of urban areas will require systematic global urban research designs that treat cities as urban systems, anthropogenic biomes and urban ecoregions. The challenges and opportunities of global environmental research on urban areas have important implications not only for current research but also for educating the next generation of earth system scientists.

Benefits for agriculture and the environment from urban waste.

PubMed

Sortino, Orazio; Montoneri, Enzo; Patanè, Cristina; Rosato, Roberta; Tabasso, Silvia; Ginepro, Marco

2014-07-15

Soluble bio-based substances (SBO) that have been isolated from urban biowaste have recently been reported to enhance plant leaf chlorophyll content and growth. The same SBO have also been shown to enhance the photochemical degradation of organic pollutants in industrial effluent. These findings suggest that SBO may promote either C fixation or mineralization, according to operating conditions. The present work aims to investigate SBO performance, as a function of source material. Thus, three materials have been sampled from a municipal waste treatment plant: (i) the digestate of the anaerobic fermentation of a humid organic fraction, (ii) a whole vegetable compost made from gardening residues and (iii) compost made from a mixture of digestate, gardening residues and sewage sludge. These materials were hydrolyzed at pH13 and 60°C to yield SBO that display different chemical compositions. These products were applied to soil at 30, 145 and 500 kg ha(-1) doses for tomato cultivation. Soil and plant leaf chemical composition, plant growth, leaf chlorophyll content and CO2 exchange rate as well as fruit quality and production rate were measured. Although it did not affect the soil's chemical composition, SBO were found to significantly increase plant photosynthetic activity, growth and productivity up to the maximum value achieved at 145 kg ha(-1). The effects were analyzed as a function of SBO chemical composition and applied dose. The results of this work, compared with those of previous works, indicate that urban biowaste, if properly exploited, may furnish conjugate economic and environmental benefits, within a friendly sustainable ecosystem. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Synergy of climate change and local pressures on saltwater intrusion in heterogeneous coastal aquifers

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Abou Najm, M.; Safi, A.; El-Fadel, M.; Doummar, J.; Alameddine, I.

2016-12-01

The relative importance of climate change induced sea level rise on the salinization of a highly urbanized karstified coastal aquifers were compared with non-sustainable pumping. A 3D variable-density groundwater flow and solute transport model was used to predict the displacement of the saltwater-freshwater interface in a pilot aquifer located along the Eastern Mediterranean. The results showed that the influence of sea level rise was marginal when compared with the encroachment of salinity associated with anthropogenic abstraction. Model predictions of salinity mass and volumetric displacement of the interface corresponding to a long-term monthly transient model showed that the saltwater intrusion dynamic is highly sensitive to change in the abstraction rates which were estimated based on combinations of water consumption rates and population growth rates. Salinity encroachment, however, appeared to be more sensitive to water consumption rates in comparison to population growth rates, where a 50% increase in the rate of former led to four times more intrusion as compared to an equivalent increase in population growth rate over 20 years. Coupling both increase in population growth and increased consumption rates had a synergistic effect that aggravated the intrusion beyond the sum of the individual impacts. Adaptation strategies targeting a decrease in groundwater exploitation proved to be effective in retarding the intrusion.

Modeling the dynamics of urban growth using multinomial logistic regression: a case study of Jiayu County, Hubei Province, China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nong, Yu; Du, Qingyun; Wang, Kun; Miao, Lei; Zhang, Weiwei

2008-10-01

Urban growth modeling, one of the most important aspects of land use and land cover change study, has attracted substantial attention because it helps to comprehend the mechanisms of land use change thus helps relevant policies made. This study applied multinomial logistic regression to model urban growth in the Jiayu county of Hubei province, China to discover the relationship between urban growth and the driving forces of which biophysical and social-economic factors are selected as independent variables. This type of regression is similar to binary logistic regression, but it is more general because the dependent variable is not restricted to two categories, as those previous studies did. The multinomial one can simulate the process of multiple land use competition between urban land, bare land, cultivated land and orchard land. Taking the land use type of Urban as reference category, parameters could be estimated with odds ratio. A probability map is generated from the model to predict where urban growth will occur as a result of the computation.

[African population growth: status and prospects].

PubMed

Tabutin, D

1991-01-01

Despite great improvements over the past several years, the quality of demographic data in Africa is still a problem, and Africa remains the least well known continent. Population growth is extremely rapid, with all countries growing at annual rates of over 3%. The natural increase rate even shows some signs of increasing slightly in the next decade or so. Africa's population was estimated at 220 million in 1950, 650 million at present, and is projected at 1.5 billion by 2025. Africans represented 9% of the world population in 1960, but will increase to 19% around 2025. The rapid population growth is the result of declining mortality since the 1950s unmatched by changes in fertility. There are significant socioeconomic and rural-urban mortality differentials in Africa, but as yet only highly educated urbanites have measurably reduced their family size. 2 consequences of this rapid growth are the youth of the population, with almost 50% under 20 years, and its high density in some areas. By 2025, 18 countries will have densities of over 100 persons per sq km. Almost everywhere in Africa, family sizes are at least 6 children/woman. 3 factors explaining this high level of fertility are the earliness and universality of marriage, rates of contraceptive usage of only 4-10% in most countries, and declining durations of breast feeding and sexual abstinence, which traditionally served as brakes on fertility. As a rule, women marry young and remain married until the end of their reproductive years. Divorce and widowhood are common, but remarriage is usually rapid if the woman is still of reproductive age. Life expectancy at birth in sub-Saharan Africa has increased from some 36 years around 1950 to 50 years at present. Progress in control of mortality, and especially infant mortality, has been slower than expected, and Africa still has by far the lowest life expectancy of any major region. Regional, rural-urban, and socioeconomic mortality differentials are considerable and sometimes increasing. In some countries the gaps in life expectancy between rural and urban residents or between social classes are as high as 15 or 20 years. The major causes of death have scarcely changed in 2 or 3 decades: diarrhea, measles, acute respiratory infections, tetanus, malaria, all aggravated by malnutrition and the new scourge of AIDS. Migration and urbanization remain major components of family survival strategies. The increasing pace of urbanization has brought a decline in urban living standards. About half of the world's refugees and displaced persons are in Africa. It was not its demography that brought Africa to its current position of underdevelopment, but population will exercise enormous pressure on available resources. Already for the continents as a whole, food production is increasing less rapidly than population. The challenges are immense: from now until 2000, the working age population will increase by 49% and the school age population (6-11 years) by 58%.

An allometric scaling relation based on logistic growth of cities

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chen, Yanguang

2014-08-01

The relationships between urban area and population size have been empirically demonstrated to follow the scaling law of allometric growth. This allometric scaling is based on exponential growth of city size and can be termed "exponential allometry", which is associated with the concepts of fractals. However, both city population and urban area comply with the course of logistic growth rather than exponential growth. In this paper, I will present a new allometric scaling based on logistic growth to solve the abovementioned problem. The logistic growth is a process of replacement dynamics. Defining a pair of replacement quotients as new measurements, which are functions of urban area and population, we can derive an allometric scaling relation from the logistic processes of urban growth, which can be termed "logistic allometry". The exponential allometric relation between urban area and population is the approximate expression of the logistic allometric equation when the city size is not large enough. The proper range of the allometric scaling exponent value is reconsidered through the logistic process. Then, a medium-sized city of Henan Province, China, is employed as an example to validate the new allometric relation. The logistic allometry is helpful for further understanding the fractal property and self-organized process of urban evolution in the right perspective.

Climate change, urbanization, and optimal long-term floodplain protection

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhu, Tingju; Lund, Jay R.; Jenkins, Marion W.; Marques, Guilherme F.; Ritzema, Randall S.

2007-06-01

This paper examines levee-protected floodplains and economic aspects of adaptation to increasing long-term flood risk due to urbanization and climate change. The lower American River floodplain in the Sacramento, California, metropolitan area is used as an illustration to explore the course of optimal floodplain protection decisions over long periods. A dynamic programming model is developed and suggests economically desirable adaptations for floodplain levee systems given simultaneous changes in flood climate and urban land values. Economic engineering optimization analyses of several climate change and urbanization scenarios are made. Sensitivity analyses consider assumptions about future values of floodplain land and damageable property along with the discount rate. Methodological insights and policy lessons are drawn from modeling results, reflecting the joint effects and relationships that climate, economic costs, and regional economic growth can have on floodplain levee planning decisions.

Variability in urban soils influences the health and growth of native tree seedlings

Treesearch

Clara C. Pregitzer; Nancy F. Sonti; Richard A. Hallett

2016-01-01

Reforesting degraded urban landscapes is important due to the many benefits urban forests provide. Urban soils are highly variable, yet little is known about how this variability in urban soils influences tree seedling performance and survival. We conducted a greenhouse study to assess health, growth, and survival of four native tree species growing in native glacial...

Changing and Differentiated Urban Landscape in China: Spatiotemporal Patterns and Driving Forces.

PubMed

Fang, Chuanglin; Li, Guangdong; Wang, Shaojian

2016-03-01

Urban landscape spatiotemporal change patterns and their driving mechanisms in China are poorly understood at the national level. Here we used remote sensing data, landscape metrics, and a spatial econometric model to characterize the spatiotemporal patterns of urban landscape change and investigate its driving forces in China between 1990 and 2005. The results showed that the urban landscape pattern has experienced drastic changes over the past 15 years. Total urban area has expanded approximately 1.61 times, with a 2.98% annual urban-growth rate. Compared to previous single-city studies, although urban areas are expanding rapidly, the overall fragmentation of the urban landscape is decreasing and is more irregular and complex at the national level. We also found a stair-stepping, urban-landscape changing pattern among eastern, central, and western counties. In addition, administrative level, urban size, and hierarchy have effects on the urban landscape pattern. We also found that a combination of landscape metrics can be used to supplement our understanding of the pattern of urbanization. The changes in these metrics are correlated with geographical indicators, socioeconomic factors, infrastructure variables, administrative level factors, policy factors, and historical factors. Our results indicate that the top priority should be strengthening the management of urban planning. A compact and congregate urban landscape may be a good choice of pattern for urban development in China.

Urbanization and agricultural land loss in India: comparing satellite estimates with census data.

PubMed

Pandey, Bhartendu; Seto, Karen C

2015-01-15

We examine the impacts of urbanization on agricultural land loss in India from 2001 to 2010. We combined a hierarchical classification approach with econometric time series analysis to reconstruct land-cover change histories using time series MODIS 250 m VI images composited at 16-day intervals and night time lights (NTL) data. We compared estimates of agricultural land loss using satellite data with agricultural census data. Our analysis highlights six key results. First, agricultural land loss is occurring around smaller cities more than around bigger cities. Second, from 2001 to 2010, each state lost less than 1% of its total geographical area due to agriculture to urban expansion. Third, the northeastern states experienced the least amount of agricultural land loss. Fourth, agricultural land loss is largely in states and districts which have a larger number of operational or approved SEZs. Fifth, urban conversion of agricultural land is concentrated in a few districts and states with high rates of economic growth. Sixth, agricultural land loss is predominantly in states with higher agricultural land suitability compared to other states. Although the total area of agricultural land lost to urban expansion has been relatively low, our results show that since 2006, the amount of agricultural land converted has been increasing steadily. Given that the preponderance of India's urban population growth has yet to occur, the results suggest an increase in the conversion of agricultural land going into the future. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Urban Growth Modeling Using AN Artificial Neural Network a Case Study of Sanandaj City, Iran

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mohammady, S.; Delavar, M. R.; Pahlavani, P.

2014-10-01

Land use activity is a major issue and challenge for town and country planners. Modelling and managing urban growth is a complex problem. Cities are now recognized as complex, non-linear and dynamic process systems. The design of a system that can handle these complexities is a challenging prospect. Local governments that implement urban growth models need to estimate the amount of urban land required in the future given anticipated growth of housing, business, recreation and other urban uses within the boundary. There are so many negative implications related with the type of inappropriate urban development such as increased traffic and demand for mobility, reduced landscape attractively, land use fragmentation, loss of biodiversity and alterations of the hydrological cycle. The aim of this study is to use the Artificial Neural Network (ANN) to make a powerful tool for simulating urban growth patterns. Our study area is Sanandaj city located in the west of Iran. Landsat imageries acquired at 2000 and 2006 are used. Dataset were used include distance to principle roads, distance to residential areas, elevation, slope, distance to green spaces and distance to region centers. In this study an appropriate methodology for urban growth modelling using satellite remotely sensed data is presented and evaluated. Percent Correct Match (PCM) and Figure of Merit were used to evaluate ANN results.

Some structural aspects of urbanization in Ethiopia.

PubMed

Rafiq, M; Hailemariam, A

1987-07-01

This article studies the emerging patterns of urbanization in Ethiopia. Over the period from 1967-1984, a number of structural changes have occurred which are likely to play a dominant role in the future urban growth in Ethiopia. In spite of its long history of settled population, Ethiopia did not witness sustained growth of urban centers. Ethiopia is 1 of the least urbanized areas in the Third World. A 3rd aspect of urbanization in Ethiopia is the wide range of regional differentials in the level of urbanization. Most of the urban population is concentrated in 2 administrative regions--Shoa and Eritrea. A more balanced urban growth may, inter alia, involve a better spread in terms of higher education, industrialization, provision of health and social services, and the development of communication and commercial infrastructure. Another striking feature of urbanization in Ethiopia is that growth has not been disproportionately concentrated in the largest urban centers. The largest urban centers have not assumed an inordinately higher level of primacy. The basic form of the curve depicting the relationship between the size of a locality and its rank has remained unchanged over the period. The post-revolution land reforms and the new socioeconomic structure emerging from reorganization of the society appear to have a rural-urban migration inhibiting effect. Some of the country's regional differentials may be associated with environmental factors.

Comparison of Chlorella vulgaris and cyanobacterial biomass: cultivation in urban wastewater and methane production.

PubMed

Mendez, Lara; Sialve, Bruno; Tomás-Pejó, Elia; Ballesteros, Mercedes; Steyer, Jean Philippe; González-Fernández, Cristina

2016-05-01

Anaerobic digestion of microalgae is hampered by its complex cell wall. Against this background, cyanobacteria cell walls render this biomass as an ideal substrate for overcoming this drawback. The aim of the present study was to compare the growth of two cyanobacteria (Aphanizomenon ovalisporum and Anabaena planctonica) and a microalga (Chlorella vulgaris) in urban wastewater when varying the temperature (22, 27 and 32 °C). Cyanobacterial optimal growth for both strains was attained at 22 °C, while C. vulgaris did not show remarkable differences among temperatures. For all the microorganisms, ammonium removal was higher than phosphate. Biomass collected was subjected to anaerobic digestion. Methane yield of C. vulgaris was 184.8 mL CH4 g COD in(-1) while with A. ovalisporum and A. planctonica the methane production was 1.2- and 1.4-fold higher. This study showed that cyanobacteria growth rates could be comparable to microalgae while presenting the additional benefit of an increased anaerobic digestibility.

Algal biofuels from urban wastewaters: maximizing biomass yield using nutrients recycled from hydrothermal processing of biomass.

PubMed

Selvaratnam, T; Pegallapati, A K; Reddy, H; Kanapathipillai, N; Nirmalakhandan, N; Deng, S; Lammers, P J

2015-04-01

Recent studies have proposed algal cultivation in urban wastewaters for the dual purpose of waste treatment and bioenergy production from the resulting biomass. This study proposes an enhancement to this approach that integrates cultivation of an acidophilic strain, Galdieria sulphuraria 5587.1, in a closed photobioreactor (PBR); hydrothermal liquefaction (HTL) of the wet algal biomass; and recirculation of the nutrient-rich aqueous product (AP) of HTL to the PBR to achieve higher biomass productivity than that could be achieved with raw wastewater. The premise is that recycling nutrients in the AP can maintain optimal C, N and P levels in the PBR to maximize biomass growth to increase energy returns. Growth studies on the test species validated growth on AP derived from HTL at temperatures from 180 to 300°C. Doubling N and P concentrations over normal levels in wastewater resulted in biomass productivity gains of 20-25% while N and P removal rates also doubled. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Chronological evaluation of urban growth and area expansion in Aguascalientes, Mexico using remotely sensed and ancillary mapped data

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Falquier, Leticia G.; Quattrochi, Dale A.; Pelletier, Ramona E.

1990-01-01

The study describes some efforts to assist the mapping procedure of Mexican towns and cities by focusing on the analysis of urban changes that have occurred in the city of Aguascalientes. To evaluate urban growth trends in Aguascalientes, historic maps of land cover, aerial photography, and SPOT data were reviewed between the period of 1857 and 1988 to determine urban boundaries. Additional analyses focused on identifying the extent and pattern of growth in reference to urban development plans initiated in 1978, and on assessing the impact of relocating people and industry after the Mexico City earthquake. Results from the study indicate a steady growth in areal expansion and population in the Aguascalientes area between 1978 and 1988.

SVR-based prediction of carbon emissions from energy consumption in Henan Province

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gou, Guohua

2018-02-01

This paper analyzes the advantage of support vector regression (SVR) in the prediction of carbon emission and establishes the SVR-based carbon emission prediction model. The model is established using the data of Henan’s carbon emissions and influence factors from the 1991 to 2016 to train and test and then predict the carbon emissions from 2017 to 2021. The results show that: from the perspective of carbon emission from energy consumption, it raised 224.876 million tons of carbon dioxide from 1991 to 2016, and the predicted increment from 2017 to 2021 is 30.5563million tons with an average annual growth rate at 3%. From the perspective of growth rate among the six factors related to carbon emissions it is proved that population urbanization rate per capital GDP and energy consumption per unit of GDP influences the growth rate of carbon emissions less than the proportion of secondary industry and coal consumption ratio of carbon. Finally some suggestions are proposed for the carbon emission reduction of Henan Province.

Migration, settlement change and health in post-apartheid South Africa: triangulating health and demographic surveillance with national census data.

PubMed

Collinson, Mark A; Tollman, Stephen M; Kahn, Kathleen

2007-08-01

World population growth will be increasingly concentrated in the urban areas of the developing world; however, some scholars caution against the oversimplification of African urbanization noting that there may be "counter-urbanization" and a prevailing pattern of circular rural-urban migration. The aim of the paper is to examine the ongoing urban transition in South Africa in the post-apartheid period, and to consider the health and social policy implications of prevailing migration patterns. Two data sets were analysed, namely the South African national census of 2001 and the Agincourt health and demographic surveillance system. A settlement-type transition matrix was constructed on the national data to show how patterns of settlement have changed in a five-year period. Using the sub-district data, permanent and temporary migration was characterized, providing migration rates by age and sex, and showing the distribution of origins and destinations. The comparison of national and sub-district data highlight the following features: urban population growth, particularly in metropolitan areas, resulting from permanent and temporary migration; prevailing patterns of temporary, circular migration, and a changing gender balance in this form of migration; stepwise urbanization; and return migration from urban to rural areas. Policy concerns include: rural poverty exacerbated by labour migration; explosive conditions for the transmission of HIV; labour migrants returning to die in rural areas; and the challenges for health information created by chronically ill migrants returning to rural areas to convalesce. Lastly, suggestions are made on how to address the dearth of relevant population information for policy-making in the fields of migration, settlement change and health.

Impact of future urban growth on regional climate changes in the Seoul Metropolitan Area, Korea.

PubMed

Kim, Hyunsu; Kim, Yoo-Keun; Song, Sang-Keun; Lee, Hwa Woon

2016-11-15

The influence of changes in future urban growth (e.g., land use changes) on the future climate variability in the Seoul metropolitan area (SMA), Korea was evaluated using the WRF model and an urban growth model (SLEUTH). The land use changes in the study area were simulated using the SLEUTH model under three different urban growth scenarios: (1) current development trends scenario (SC 1), (2) managed development scenario (SC 2) and (3) ecological development scenario (SC 3). The maximum difference in the ratio of urban growth between SC 1 and SC 3 (SC 1 - SC 3) for 50years (2000-2050) was approximately 6.72%, leading to the largest differences (0.01°C and 0.03ms(-1), respectively) in the mean air temperature at 2m (T2) and wind speed at 10m (WS10). From WRF-SLEUTH modeling, the effects of future urban growth (or future land use changes) in the SMA are expected to result in increases in the spatial mean T2 and WS10 of up to 1.15°C and 0.03ms(-1), respectively, possibly due to thermal circulation caused by the thermal differences between urban and rural regions. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

[Analysis of the definitive statistics of the 11th General Population and Housing Census].

PubMed

Aguayo Hernandez, J R

1992-01-01

The 11th General Census of Population and Housing conducted in March 1990 enumerated 2,204,054 inhabitants in Sinaloa, for a density of 37.9 per sq. km. Sinaloa's population thus increased sevenfold from 297,000 in 1900. The proportion of Sinalioans in Mexico's population increased from 2.2% in 1900 to 2.7% in 1990. 38.4% of the population was under age 14, 57.0% was 14064, and 4.6% as over 65. The greatest challenge for the year 2010 will be to meet the demand for educational facilities, employment, and services for the growing elderly population. Sinaloa's population grew at an annual rate of 1.1 between 1980-90. 17 of its 18 municipios showed slowing growth rates between 1980-90, with only Escuinapa increasing its rate. Sinaloa's growth rate of 1.8% is still relatively high, and the population in the year 2000 is projected at 2.6 million. Population distribution and migration present problems that should be more actively addressed. Urban-urban migration is increasing in importance. In 1990, Sinaloa had 5247 localities of which only 85 had more than 2500 inhabitants and 4717 had fewer than 500. Growth of midsize localities with 500-2499 inhabitants may constitute an alternative allowing the demographic deconcentration and decentralization that Sinaloa urgently requires. The lack of jobs, infrastructure, educational and health services, housing, and food in the dispersed 4717 communities with fewer than 500 inhabitants makes them sources of emigration. Sinaloa's population is concentrated along the coast and in the 3 valleys of the north and central regions, which contain 80.8% of the population. One-third of the population lives on 12.1% of the territory in 2 municipios, while 12 municipios covering 67% of the territory contain just 24% of the population. Sinaloa's growth rate has declined from 4.3% between 1960-70 to 3.7% from 1970-80 and 1.8% in 1980-90.

Progressive growth deterioration in a context of nutritional transition: a case study from Vientiane (Lao PDR).

PubMed

Benefice, Eric; Lévi, Pierre; Banouvong, Phonetip

2012-05-01

The high rates of rapid urban and economic growth occurring in Asia are bringing about parallel changes in both food consumption patterns and nutritional status. The aim of this study is to examine the impact of these changes on the nutritional and health status of mothers and their offspring in Vientiane, Lao PDR. Over 2 consecutive years, a follow-up study of 150 infant-mother pairs living at three different levels of urbanization was performed in Vientiane. The mothers completed a questionnaire on their eating habits. Clinical examinations and anthropometric measurements were also carried out. The results showed that, in general, the dietary energy content was low (providing only 83% of the energy requirement) and there were deficiencies in calcium, vitamin A, Folate and iron. The main energy source was rice (providing 40.9%), while 40% of the protein provided by meat and fish provided 19.8%. The differences observed in the food contribution to energy intakes and in food diversity varied with the level of urbanization. The prevalence of stunting (13.9%; CI 10.0 ∼ 18.6%) was less than that reported at the country level. Stunting was related to age, the sex of the child and the mother's physique and varied according to the level of urbanization. The level of urbanization in Vientiane influences the pace of the ongoing process of nutritional transition.

Modeling of urban growth using cellular automata (CA) optimized by Particle Swarm Optimization (PSO)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Khalilnia, M. H.; Ghaemirad, T.; Abbaspour, R. A.

2013-09-01

In this paper, two satellite images of Tehran, the capital city of Iran, which were taken by TM and ETM+ for years 1988 and 2010 are used as the base information layers to study the changes in urban patterns of this metropolis. The patterns of urban growth for the city of Tehran are extracted in a period of twelve years using cellular automata setting the logistic regression functions as transition functions. Furthermore, the weighting coefficients of parameters affecting the urban growth, i.e. distance from urban centers, distance from rural centers, distance from agricultural centers, and neighborhood effects were selected using PSO. In order to evaluate the results of the prediction, the percent correct match index is calculated. According to the results, by combining optimization techniques with cellular automata model, the urban growth patterns can be predicted with accuracy up to 75 %.

A physically based analytical spatial air temperature and humidity model

Treesearch

Yang Yang; Theodore A. Endreny; David J. Nowak

2013-01-01

Spatial variation of urban surface air temperature and humidity influences human thermal comfort, the settling rate of atmospheric pollutants, and plant physiology and growth. Given the lack of observations, we developed a Physically based Analytical Spatial Air Temperature and Humidity (PASATH) model. The PASATH model calculates spatial solar radiation and heat...

Oxidant induced alteration of carbohydrate production and allocation in plants

Treesearch

Robert L. Heath

1998-01-01

Urban air basin produced oxidants, notably ozone, induce a decline in productivity in plants. This loss of productivity is manifested by slower growth, hindered development, lower reproduction rates, impaired ability to resist disease, and other stresses. While many metabolic events have been linked to oxidant exposure, three major shifts have been well-studied:...

Exploring the Literacy Environment: A Case Study from Urban Senegal

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Shiohata, Mariko

2010-01-01

The low literacy rates in developing countries have been repeatedly problematized as a major constraint to socioeconomic development by education planners and policy makers. In the 1950s and 1960s, the dominant rationale for literacy development was one of promoting economic growth. In more recent years, by contrast, literacy has increasingly come…

Cultivation of Chlorella protothecoides with urban wastewater in continuous photobioreactor: biomass productivity and nutrient removal.

PubMed

Ramos Tercero, E A; Sforza, E; Morandini, M; Bertucco, A

2014-02-01

The capability to grow microalgae in nonsterilized wastewater is essential for an application of this technology in an actual industrial process. Batch experiments were carried out with the species in nonsterilized urban wastewater from local treatment plants to measure both the algal growth and the nutrient consumption. Chlorella protothecoides showed a high specific growth rate (about 1 day(-1)), and no effects of bacterial contamination were observed. Then, this microalgae was grown in a continuous photobioreactor with CO₂-air aeration in order to verify the feasibility of an integrated process of the removal of nutrient from real wastewaters. Different residence times were tested, and biomass productivity and nutrients removal were measured. A maximum of microalgae productivity was found at around 0.8 day of residence time in agreement with theoretical expectation in the case of light-limited cultures. In addition, N-NH₄ and P-PO₄ removal rates were determined in order to model the kinetic of nutrients uptake. Results from batch and continuous experiments were used to propose an integrated process scheme of wastewater treatment at industrial scale including a section with C. protothecoides.

Conservation in metropolitan regions: assessing trends and threats of urban development and climate change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Thorne, J. H.; Santos, M. J.; Bjorkman, J.

2011-12-01

Two global challenges to successful conservation are urban expansion and climate change. Rapid urban growth threatens biodiversity and associated ecosystem services, while climate change may make currently protected areas unsuitable for species that exist within them. We examined three measures of landscape change for 8800 km2 of the San Francisco Bay metropolitan region over 80 years past and future: urban growth, protected area establishment, and natural vegetation type extents. The Bay Area is a good test bed for conservation assessment of the impacts of temporal and spatial of urban growth and land cover change. The region is geographically rather small, with over 40% of its lands already dedicated to protected park and open space lands, they are well-documented, and, the area has had extensive population growth in the past and is projected to continue to grow. The ten-county region within which our study area is a subset has grown from 1.78 million people in 1930, to 6.97 million in 2000 and is estimated to grow to 10.94 million by 2050. With such an influx of people into a small geographic area, it is imperative to both examine the past urban expansion and estimate how the future population will be accommodated into the landscape. We quantify these trends to assess conservation 'success' through time. We used historical and current landcover maps to assess trend, and a GIS-based urban modeling (UPlan) to assess future urban growth impacts in the region, under three policy scenarios- business as usual, smart growth, and urban redevelopment. Impacts are measured by the amount of open space targeted by conservation planners in the region that will be urbanized under each urban growth policy. Impacts are also measured by estimates of the energy consumption projected for each of the scenarios on household and business unit level. The 'business as usual' and 'smart growth' scenarios differed little in their impacts to targeted conservation lands, because so little open space remains to accommodate the expected population growth. Redevelopment conserved more naturally vegetated open space. The redevelopment scenario also permits the lowest increase in energy demand because buildings taken out in the process are reconfigured to higher levels of energy efficiency. However, redevelopment requires substantial increases in residential densities to confine the spatial footprint of the expected future urban growth. These three urban growth scenario footprints differ in their impact to natural vegetation and open space. To incorporate the influence of climate change on remaining natural ecosystems in this urbanizing landscape, we projected the stability of existing, mapped, vegetation types in the region under future climates by examining where projected ranges of the dominant plant species comprising each California Wildlife Habitat Relationship type will all remain together, and where they will begin to dis-associate due to biogeographic response to changing climate. This permits identification of stable and unstable zones of vegetation. The combination of climate stable, high conservation priority and likelihood of urban development provides a way to prioritize conservation land acquisitions.

Ghana.

PubMed

1981-09-01

The government of Ghana sees the country's population as a valuable natural resource and emphasizes national population policy as an important part of overall socioeconomic planning and development. A formal system of development planning has been in effect since 1951. Decennial censuses are conducted relatively regularly but vital registration is thought to be incomplete. The current population size is 11,679,000 and the current rate of natural increase (3.1%) is considered too high, constraining the achievement of socioeconomic development. The high rate of growth is taxing on employment and public services. High fertility rates are influenced both by regional norms, such as early and universal marriage, and demographic factors, i.e., an increasingly higher proportion of the population in the 0-14 age group. The government sponsors family planning services which can be obtained free or at subsidized rates and seeks to upgrade the health and living standards of the population. Sterilization is permitted for medical reasons only, and abortions are restricted. Crude death rates have declined steadily and are currently estimated at 21-23/1000 population. The infant mortality rate is approximately 125.7/1000 live births. These rates are considered unacceptable and budget allocations for curative and preventive services have continuously risen. Uneven regional distribution of services continues to be problematic. Efforts to curb immigration in 1969 are thought to have resulted in the current satisfactory situation. Restrictive measures to prevent the emigration of skilled personnel are in effect. 60-65% of the population are urban dwellers and the proportion is expected to increase. The current spatial distribution of the population is considered inappropriate, rapid urbanization is causing rural depopulation, overburdening urban services and accentuating rural-urban disparaties. 2 approaches to the problem have been implemented: the urban increase is accomodated by increasing outlays for services, and new public investments are widely dispersed, particularly in rural areas. The industrial policy is expected to shift to exploitation of the country's natural resources in order to develop the interior.

Investigating the vertical dimension of Singapore's urban heat island through quadcopter platforms: an pilot study

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chow, Winston; Ho, Dawn

2016-04-01

In numerous cities, measurements of urban warmth in most urban heat island (UHI) studies are generally constrained towards surface or near-surface (<2 m above surface level) levels across horizontal variations in land use and land cover. However, there has been hitherto limited attention towards the measurement of vertical temperature profiles extending from the urban surface, urban canopy layer through to the urban boundary layer. Knowledge of these profiles, through (a.) how they vary over different local urban morphologies, and (b.) develop with respect to synoptic meteorological conditions, are important towards several aspects of UHI research; these include validating modelling urban canopy lapse rate profiles or estimating the growth of urban plumes. In this novel study, we utilised temperature sensor-loggers attached onto remote controlled aerial quadcopter platforms to measure urban temperature profiles up to 100 m above ground level in Singapore, which is a rapidly urbanizing major tropical metropolis. Three different land use/land cover categories were sampled; a high-rise residential estate, a university campus, and an urban park/green-space. Sorties were flown repeatedly at four different times - sunrise, noon, sunset and midnight. Initial results indicate significant variations in intra-site stability and inversion development between the urban canopy and boundary layers. These profiles are also temporally dynamic, depending on the time of day and larger-scale weather conditions.

Forecasting urban growth across the United States-Mexico border

USGS Publications Warehouse

Norman, L.M.; Feller, M.; Phillip, Guertin D.

2009-01-01

The sister-city area of Nogales, Arizona, and Nogales, Sonora, Mexico, is known collectively as Ambos (both) Nogales. This area was historically one city and was administratively divided by the Gadsden Purchase in 1853. These arid-lands have limited and sensitive natural resources. Environmental planning can support sustainable development to accommodate the predicted influx of population. The objective of this research is to quantify the amount of predicted urban growth for the Ambos Nogales watershed to support future planning for sustainable development. Two modeling regimes are explored. Our goal is to identify possible growth patterns associated with the twin-city area as a whole and with the two cities modeled as separate entities. We analyzed the cross-border watershed using regression analysis from satellite images from 1975, 1983, 1996, and 2002 and created urban area classifications. We used these classifications as input to the urban growth model, SLEUTH, to simulate likely patterns of development and define projected conversion probabilities. Model results indicate that the two cities are undergoing very different patterns of change and identify locations of expected growth based on historical development. Growth in Nogales, Arizona is stagnant while the urban area in Nogales, Sonora is exploding. This paper demonstrates an application that portrays how future binational urban growth could develop and affect the environment. This research also provides locations of potential growth for use in city planning.

Gifted and at Risk: A Cross-District Comparison of Gifted Student Growth and Solutions for Urban Schools

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Kurt, Layla J.; Chenault, Krystel H.

2017-01-01

In this study, the researchers highlight differences in district level value-added growth data of gifted students in urban and suburban districts, as categorized by the Ohio Department of Education. In addition to analyzing the difference between the academic growth of urban and suburban gifted students, the researchers sought to synthesize…

Transition index maps for urban growth simulation: application of artificial neural networks, weight of evidence and fuzzy multi-criteria evaluation.

PubMed

Shafizadeh-Moghadam, Hossein; Tayyebi, Amin; Helbich, Marco

2017-06-01

Transition index maps (TIMs) are key products in urban growth simulation models. However, their operationalization is still conflicting. Our aim was to compare the prediction accuracy of three TIM-based spatially explicit land cover change (LCC) models in the mega city of Mumbai, India. These LCC models include two data-driven approaches, namely artificial neural networks (ANNs) and weight of evidence (WOE), and one knowledge-based approach which integrates an analytical hierarchical process with fuzzy membership functions (FAHP). Using the relative operating characteristics (ROC), the performance of these three LCC models were evaluated. The results showed 85%, 75%, and 73% accuracy for the ANN, FAHP, and WOE. The ANN was clearly superior compared to the other LCC models when simulating urban growth for the year 2010; hence, ANN was used to predict urban growth for 2020 and 2030. Projected urban growth maps were assessed using statistical measures, including figure of merit, average spatial distance deviation, producer accuracy, and overall accuracy. Based on our findings, we recomend ANNs as an and accurate method for simulating future patterns of urban growth.

Survey report; health needs of the 21st century.

PubMed

Raymond, S U

1989-01-01

Sustainability of development assistance programs depends greatly on the perceptions of priorities by recipient countries. A written survey was sent by the Catholic University of America's Institute for International Health and Development to 66 ministers of health in low-income and middle-income countries to assess their views of priority problems in health sector development. Response rate was 33%, coming from countries with highly diverse gross national products (GNPs), growth rates, mortality rates and life expectancies. Nevertheless, there was widespread agreement about priorities: 1) meeting costs of health care; 2) improving health care management and administration; and 3) extending communicable disease control. Communicable disease control and child health programs were more important to low-income countries than to middle-income countries. Costs, management and administration and the control of noncommunicable diseases were predicted to increase in importance. In demographics, urbanization, overall population growth and shift of workers from agriculture to industry and services were seen as the major problems of the past, and urbanization and the aging of populations accompanied by increasing life expectancies the major challenges of the future. Highest predicted training needs were for system managers and paramedical personnel. Government budgets, user fees and donor agencies were seen as the most important sources of past funding, with social security systems and fee-based payments increasing in importance in the future. The role of donor agencies would increase as would the need for more responsiveness. Future uncertainties include national economic growth, environmental problems, issues in ethics and changes in disease and technology.

Self-rated health status and subjective health complaints associated with health-promoting lifestyles among urban Chinese women: a cross-sectional study.

PubMed

Cheng, Jingru; Wang, Tian; Li, Fei; Xiao, Ya; Bi, Jianlu; Chen, Jieyu; Sun, Xiaomin; Wu, Liuguo; Wu, Shengwei; Liu, Yanyan; Luo, Ren; Zhao, Xiaoshan

2015-01-01

This study aimed to investigate whether self-rated health status (SRH) and subjective health complaints (SHC) of urban Chinese women are associated with their health-promoting lifestyles (HPL). We conducted a cross-sectional study on 8142 eligible Chinese participants between 2012 and 2013. Demographic and SHC data were collected. Each subject completed the SRH questionnaire and the Chinese version of the Health-Promoting Lifestyle Profile-II (HPLP-II). Correlation and binary regression analyses were performed to examine the associations of SRH and SHC with HPL. Both SRH and HPL of urban Chinese women were moderate. The most common complaints were fatigue (1972, 24.2%), eye discomfort (1571, 19.3%), and insomnia (1542, 18.9%). Teachers, highly educated subjects and elderly women had lower SRH scores, while college students and married women had better HPL. All items of HPLP-II were positively correlated with SRH (r = 0.127-0.533, P = 0.000) and negatively correlated with SHC to a significant extent (odds ratio [OR] = 1.40-11.37). Aspects of HPL, particularly stress management and spiritual growth, are associated with higher SRH and lower SHC ratings among urban Chinese women. Physical activity and health responsibility are additionally related to reduced fatigue and nervousness. We believe that these findings will be instrumental in encouraging researchers and urban women to adopt better health-promoting lifestyles with different priorities in their daily lives.

[An analysis of the 1987 population situation in China].

PubMed

Li, R

1988-01-01

Presented here is an analysis of some of the manually collected data from a 1% random sample of China's population taken on 7/1/87. 1)Population growth: The population grew 6.36% from 1982-87 to give a total population of 1,072,330,000. Even though the average annual growth rate of 1.24% during these years is slower than the growth rate of the 1950s and 1960s, this does not mean that China can be complacent about it. Due to China's large population base, every year its population increases by about 13,000,000, with serious implications for consumerism, education and labor. The natural rate of growth dropped during 1982-84, but by 1987, it had increased again to 1981 levels. If China is to limit its population to 1.25 billion by 2000, the average annual growth rate must remain below 1.23%, which is lower than the figures of recent years. 2) Sex differences: the population was 51.1% male and 48.9% female. 3) Age structure: 28.68% of the population were 14 years and younger; 65.86% were between 15-64 years; 5.46% were 65 years and older. The median age was 24.2 years. The percentage of the 0-14 year bracket dropped about 7.6% from 1953-87, while the 15-64 year olds increased 6.6% and the 65 years and older group increased 1%. On the surface, a 1% increase of the aged would not present a problem to China taken as a whole. However, when densely populated areas such as Shanghai are looked at, the situation demands immediate attention. 4) Ethnic groups: 92% of the population were Han. Minorities increased 5% annually between 1982-87 to comprise 8% of the population. This rapid growth among minorities is due in part to official permission for families to bear more than one child, and to better sanitary and medical attention. 6) Population distribution: 37.1% of the population lived in urban areas, as compared with 10% in 1949. By 1990 the urban population could reach 40%, creating serious social, economic and political pressure on cities.

Metropolitan migration and population growth in selected developing countries.

PubMed

1983-01-01

The purpose of this article is to estimate the components of metropolitan population growth in selected developing countries during 1960-1970 period. The study examines population growth in 26 cities: 5 are in Africa, 8 in Asia, and 13 in Latin America, using data from national census publications. These cities in general are the political capitals of their countries, but some additional large cities were selected in Brazil, Mexico, and South Africa. All cities, at the beginning of the 1960-1970 decade had over 500,000 population; Accra, the only exception, reached this population level during the 1960s. Some cities had over 4 million residents in 1970. Net migration contributed about 37% to total metropolitan population growth; the remainder of the growth is attributable to natural increase. Migration has a much stronger impact on metropolitan growth than suggested by the above figure: 1) Several metropolitan areas, for various reasons, are unlikely to receive many migrants; without those cities, the share of metropolitan growth from net migration is 44%. 2) Estimates of the natural increase of migrants after their arrival in the metropolitan areas, when added to migration itself, changes the total contribution of migration to 49% in some metropolitan areas. 3) Even where net migration contributes a smaller proportion to metropolitan growth than natural increase, the rates of net migration are generally high and should be viewed in the context of rapid metropolitan population growth from natural increase alone. Finally, the paper also compares the components of metropolitan growth with the components of growth in the remaining urban areas. The results show that the metropolitan areas, in general, grow faster than the remaining urban areas, and that this more rapid growth is mostly due to a higher rate of net migration. Given the significance of migration for metropolitan growth, further investigations of the effects of these migration streams, particularly with respect to in-migration and out-migration, would greatly benefit understanding of the detailed and interconnected process of population growth, migration, employment and social welfare of city residents.

Global Forecasts of Urban Expansion to 2030 and Direct Impacts on Biodiversity and Carbon Pools

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Seto, K. C.; Guneralp, B.; Hutyra, L.

2012-12-01

Urban land cover change threatens biodiversity and affects ecosystem productivity through loss of habitat, biomass, and carbon storage. Yet, despite projections that world urban populations will increase to 4.3 billion by 2030, little is known about future locations, magnitudes, and rates of urban expansion. Here we develop the first global probabilistic forecasts of urban land cover change and explore the impacts on biodiversity hotspots and tropical carbon biomass. If current trends in population density continue, then by 2030, urban land cover will expand between 800,000 and 3.3 million km2, representing a doubling to five-fold increase from the global urban land cover in 2000. This would result in considerable loss of habitats in key biodiversity hotspots, including the Guinean forests of West Africa, Tropical Andes, Western Ghats and Sri Lanka. Within the pan-tropics, loss in forest biomass from urban expansion is estimated to be 1.38 PgC (0.05 PgC yr-1), equal to approximately 5% of emissions from tropical land use change. Although urbanization is often considered a local issue, the aggregate global impacts of projected urban expansion will require significant policy changes to affect future growth trajectories to minimize global biodiversity and forest carbon losses.

Juvenile coho salmon growth and health in streams across an urbanization gradient

USGS Publications Warehouse

Spanjer, Andrew R.; Moran, Patrick W.; Larsen, Kimberly; Wetzel, Lisa; Hansen, Adam G.; Beauchamp, David A.

2018-01-01

Expanding human population and urbanization alters freshwater systems through structural changes to habitat, temperature effects from increased runoff and reduced canopy cover, altered flows, and increased toxicants. Current stream assessments stop short of measuring health or condition of species utilizing these freshwater habitats and fail to link specific stressors mechanistically to the health of organisms in the stream. Juvenile fish growth integrates both external and internal conditions providing a useful indicator of habitat quality and ecosystem health. Thus, there is a need to account for ecological and environmental influences on fish growth accurately. Bioenergetics models can simulate changes in growth and consumption in response to environmental conditions and food availability to account for interactions between an organism's environmental experience and utilization of available resources. The bioenergetics approach accounts for how thermal regime, food supply, and food quality affect fish growth. This study used a bioenergetics modeling approach to evaluate the environmental factors influencing juvenile coho salmon growth among ten Pacific Northwest streams spanning an urban gradient. Urban streams tended to be warmer, have earlier emergence dates and stronger early season growth. However, fish in urban streams experienced increased stress through lower growth efficiencies, especially later in the summer as temperatures warmed, with as much as a 16.6% reduction when compared to fish from other streams. Bioenergetics modeling successfully characterized salmonid growth in small perennial streams as part of a more extensive monitoring program and provides a powerful assessment tool for characterizing mixed life-stage specific responses in urban streams.

[Fifty years of population growth and absorbing manual labor in Brazil, 1950-2000].

PubMed

Paiva, P D

1986-01-01

The economically active population has grown rapidly in Brazil, resulting either from population growth or increased female participation in the work force. This rhythm of growth will continue at least until the end of this century. The authors suggest that the impact of the recent decline in fertility will be moderate and will only affect the younger age groups. Despite the rapid growth of employment in the processing industry, the relative size of the so-called informal sector has remained stable since 1950. It is further predicted that, given the economically active population's rate of growth and the decrease in employment in agriculture, there will be a great demand for urban employment in the next 20 years.

The need for a national urbanization policy in Nepal.

PubMed

Ertur, O

1994-09-01

There is a need for a national urbanization policy in Nepal as a means of redressing regional disparities in development between the hills, the Kathmandu Valley, and the Terai versus rural and urban areas. A settlement system would complement urban and rural development and reduce dependency on India. An urbanization policy would be both systematic and guided by public and private investment in existing urban and rural settlements. Regional investment in development would contribute to commercialization and agricultural industrialization (development and linkage of market towns and service centers, strengthening of basic infrastructure and land use patterns, strengthening of urban areas around transportation centers, promoting nonfarm employment opportunities, establishing strong financial and technical institutions in middle-sized cities, and strengthening municipalities' mobilization of local resources and financing). Nepal has been one of the least developed countries in its region. The agricultural economy provides economic support for 80% of total population. In 1991, density was 130 person per sq. km. 9% of the total population live in urban areas, but the rate of urban growth is the highest among South Asian Regional Cooperation countries (7.3% in Nepal compared to 6.1% in Bangladesh and 3.7% in India). Rural markets and towns are rapidly becoming urbanized but without basic infrastructure. The spatial component of urbanization must be emphasized. Total population increased in the Terai from 37% in 1971 to 47% in 1991, which increased population density by 31% but not cultivation. Harsh physical conditions in mountainous regions and lack of cultivable land are push factors. Pull factors are employment opportunities in emerging urban centers and the availability of agricultural employment in the Terai. Movement to lowlands is enhanced by the eradication of malaria. 53% of the urban population is in the Terai in 1991, which also has 65% of cultivable land, 35% of roads, and 63% of industry. Urban settlements increased from 10 in 1951 to 33 in 1987 and 36 in 1991. In the Terai, the increases are from five to 21 urban centers. The central and eastern region have experienced faster urban growth than the other three regions. Kathmandu is the most populated urban center followed by Biratnagar, Pokhara, and Birganj. Government ministries are ill-equipped to handle the technical and manpower needs in the process of urbanization.

Urban population growth and urbanization in the Caribbean.

PubMed

Hope, K R

1985-01-01

The structure, sources, consequences, and policy implications of urbanization and of the rapid growth of the urban population in the Caribbean are examined. In particular, a comparative analysis of the situation in Barbados, Guyana, Jamaica, and Trinidad and Tobago is presented. Data are from a variety of secondary sources, including those published by the United Nations and the World Bank. The need to reorient policies to favor rural rather than urban areas in order to reduce rural-urban migration is noted.

Comparison of urban and rural general surgeons: motivations for practice location, practice patterns, and education requirements.

PubMed

Heneghan, Steven J; Bordley, James; Dietz, Patrick A; Gold, Michael S; Jenkins, Paul L; Zuckerman, Randall J

2005-11-01

The purpose of this study is to determine the differences between rural and urban surgeons with regard to practice patterns, factors in choosing a practice location, and educational needs. A list of surgeons obtained from the American Medical Association was examined using the Office of Management and Budget definition of rural. Seventeen hundred rural surgeons were mailed surveys; 421 responded. One hundred fourteen urban surgeons were contacted by telephone. Questions were designed to measure job and community satisfaction, factors influencing their decision to practice in their current location, spectrum and volume of cases, and their perceived educational needs. Age distribution did not differ markedly between urban and rural surgeons. Motivation to practice in their current location varied considerably between urban and rural surgeons. Both groups equally rated quality of life as the leading factor influencing their current practice location. Urban surgeons rated other factors, such as income, practice growth, hospital facilities, and proximity to family, higher than rural surgeons. Practice patterns and educational needs also varied between the two groups. Rural surgeons performed more procedures per year with more variety in procedure type. Both groups felt that additional training in advanced laparoscopic techniques would be helpful, and rural surgeons felt that additional training in the surgical subspecialty areas was important. Although rural and urban surgeons do not differ in age or the importance of lifestyle in deciding career location, different factors do impact their choice of location. Practice pattern and educational needs varied markedly between rural and urban general surgeons.

Dendrometer studies in urban and rural environments in Stockholm, Sweden

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rocha, Eva; Holzkämper, Steffen

2017-04-01

With this study we investigate growth performances of Pinus sylvestris growing under the influence of the Urban Heat Island of the city of Stockholm, Sweden, and trees growing in the rural surrounding of the city. The aims of this investigation are to see whether and how much the growth performances differ, and which climatic parameters control the tree growth at the respective locations. Stockholm holds one of the world's longest observational climate records, reaching back to AD 1756. Since climate data are collected at a location which today is well within the Urban Heat Island, it is relevant to quantify the correlation differences between climate and tree growth data from trees which actually grow under the same climate conditions and trees growing under natural, rural climate conditions. Applied methods include Remote Sensing and GIS for identification and characterization of the Urban Heat Island, monitoring of tree growth at 30 min-resolution with point dendrometers (Ecomatik) and monitoring of local climate directly at the tree sites. First results indicate emphasized growth differences between the urban and the rural sites, with distinctively higher daily diameter change amplitudes at the urban sites compared to the rural sites, which can be explained by differences in relative humidity and temperature ranges between the sites. We will present and discuss results from 1 year of measurements, focusing on correlation analysis between climate and tree growth data from urban and rural sites, as well as practical issues with dendrometer measurements.

Area characteristics and admission rates of people with schizophrenia and affective disorders in a German rural catchment area.

PubMed

Losert, C; Schmauß, M; Becker, T; Kilian, R

2012-12-01

Studies in urban areas identified environmental risk factors for mental illness, but little research on this topic has been performed in rural areas. Hospital admission rates were computed for 174 rural municipalities in the catchment area of the state psychiatric hospital in Günzburg in years 2006 to 2009 and combined with structural and socio-economic data. Relationships of overall and diagnosis-specific admission rates with municipality characteristics were analysed by means of negative binomial regression models. Admission rates of patients with a diagnosis of schizophrenia and affective disorder combined decrease with increasing population growth, population density, average income and green areas, while admission rates are positively correlated with commuter balance, income inequality, unemployment rates and traffic areas. Admission rates for schizophrenia are negatively related to population growth, average income and agricultural areas, but positively related to mobility index, income inequality and unemployment rate. Admission rates for affective disorders are negatively related to population growth, population density, average income and green areas, while higher admission rates are correlated with commuter balance, high income inequality, unemployment rate and traffic-related areas. Effects of wealth, economic inequality, population density and structural area characteristics influence psychiatric admission rates also in rural areas.

Assessment of ecosystem services provided by urban trees: public lands within the Urban Growth Boundary of Corvallis, OR

EPA Science Inventory

Public lands within the Urban Growth Boundary of Corvallis, Oregon contain a diverse population of about 440,000 trees that include over 300 varieties and have an estimated tree cover of 31%. While often unrecognized, urban trees provide a variety of “ecosystem services” or dire...

[Characteristics of physical growth of schoolchildren in Mongolia and their forming factors].

PubMed

Pogorelova, I G; Amgalan, G

The article considers the findings of hygienic assessments of educational conditions in urban and rural schools in Mongolia and socio-economic conditions of living of schoolchildren and analysis of anthropometric measurements of schoolchildren aged of 7-16 years in relation to the assessment of harmonicity of their physical development. Hygienic conditions in Mongolian schools are characterized by improper organization of the educational - accomplishment process, high occupancy rate in classes causing insufficient space for a pupil and disconformity of school furniture parameters of school desks and chairs to growth and age requirements of pupils. Comparative assessment of socio-economic factors revealed (выделено автором) that the majority (84.1%) of rural pupils reside in uncomfortable houses and gerdwellings, 58.5 % - in large families with many children, 46.3 % - in families with poor living conditions. There were obtained data about differences in physical development of urban and rural schoolchildren pronounced with age by the gain in the number of children with disharmonious development and children with lower physical indices of the development, delayed by 1-2 years appearance of the crossing of growth and growth shift typical for rural children in comparison with their urban counterparts. According to results of multivariate regression analysis most significant factors for the formation of physical development of school children in descending order are academic workload, the place of residence, the number of children in the family, uncomfortable living conditions, household income and parent’s education. In the presence of these factors, the risk of the formation of disharmonious physical growth of school children increases by 1.8-2.8 times. The probability of the risk offormation of disharmonious physical development of schoolchildren living in rural areas was found to be by 2.5 times more than for their urban counterparts. The results can be usedfor scientific substantiation and development of targeted health measures.

Slow Growth and Urban Sprawl: Support for a New Regional Agenda?

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Gainsborough, Juliet F.

2002-01-01

Assessed the possibilities for coalition building around growth related concerns, exploring support for slowing growth in New York City and Los Angeles. Analyzed data from surveys of urban and suburban dwellers regarding support for growth control measures. Suburbanites were much more receptive to slow growth policies than were urbanites, though…

Morbidity Forecast in Cities: A Study of Urban Air Pollution and Respiratory Diseases in the Metropolitan Region of Curitiba, Brazil.

PubMed

de Souza, Fabio Teodoro

2018-05-29

In the last two decades, urbanization has intensified, and in Brazil, about 90% of the population now lives in urban centers. Atmospheric patterns have changed owing to the high growth rate of cities, with negative consequences for public health. This research aims to elucidate the spatial patterns of air pollution and respiratory diseases. A data-based model to aid local urban management to improve public health policies concerning air pollution is described. An example of data preparation and multivariate analysis with inventories from different cities in the Metropolitan Region of Curitiba was studied. A predictive model with outstanding accuracy in prediction of outbreaks was developed. Preliminary results describe relevant relations among morbidity scales, air pollution levels, and atmospheric seasonal patterns. The knowledge gathered here contributes to the debate on social issues and public policies. Moreover, the results of this smaller scale study can be extended to megacities.

Urban Intensification and Expansion in Sub-Saharan Africa: Impacts on Urban Agriculture and Food Security

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Uzokwe, V. N. E. N.; Muchelo, R. O.; Odeh, I. A.

2015-12-01

In Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA), urban intensification and expansion are increasing at alarming rates due to rapid population growth and rural-to-urban migration. This has led to the premise that the proportion of SSA urban residents most vulnerable to food insecurity is the highest in the world. Using a focused survey and multi-temporal (decadal) land use/cover classification of Landsat images, we explored the effect of urban intensification and expansion on urban agriculture and food security, focusing on a megacity and a regional center in Uganda: Kampala and Mbarara, respectively. We found that food insecurity arose due to a number of reasons, among which are: i) expansion and intensification of of urban settlements into previously productive agricultural lands in urban and peri-urban areas; ii) loss of predominantly young (rural agricultural) adult labor force to urban centers, leading to decline in rural food production; iii) lack of proper urban planning incorporating green and agricultural development leading to low productive market garden systems. We discussed these outcomes in light of existing studies which estimated that urban agriculture alone supports over 800 million people globally and accounts for 15-20% of world food supply. In spite of this relatively low contribution by urban/peri-urban agriculture, it probably accounts for higher proportion of food supply to urban poor in SSA and thus are most vulnerable to the loss of urban and peri-urban agricultural land. Further recommendations require policy makers and urban planners to team up to design a suitable framework for sustainable urban planning and development.

Is sprawl associated with a widening urban-suburban mortality gap?

PubMed

Fan, Yingling; Song, Yan

2009-09-01

This paper examines whether sprawl, featured by low development density, segregated land uses, lack of significant centers, and poor street connectivity, contributes to a widening mortality gap between urban and suburban residents. We employ two mortality datasets, including a national cross-sectional dataset examining the impact of metropolitan-level sprawl on urban-suburban mortality gaps and a longitudinal dataset from Portland examining changes in urban-suburban mortality gaps over time. The national and Portland studies provide the only evidence to date that (1) across metropolitan areas, the size of urban-suburban mortality gaps varies by the extent of sprawl: in sprawling metropolitan areas, urban residents have significant excess mortality risks than suburban residents, while in compact metropolitan areas, urbanicity-related excess mortality becomes insignificant; (2) the Portland metropolitan area not only experienced net decreases in mortality rates but also a narrowing urban-suburban mortality gap since its adoption of smart growth regime in the past decade; and (3) the existence of excess mortality among urban residents in US sprawling metropolitan areas, as well as the net mortality decreases and narrowing urban-suburban mortality gap in the Portland metropolitan area, is not attributable to sociodemographic variations. These findings suggest that health threats imposed by sprawl affect urban residents disproportionately compared to suburban residents and that efforts curbing sprawl may mitigate urban-suburban health disparities.

Ethnic Groups in Urban Areas; Community Formation and Growth: A Selected Bibliography. Council of Planning Librarians Exchange Bibliography Series, Number 202.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Thompson, Bryan; Vance, Mary, Ed.

This bibliography deals with ethnic settlement patterns in urban areas. The emphasis is on factors that determine initial settlement, subsequent intraurban migration and community growth, and their relationship with the more general questions of urban structure and growth. The selection is by no means exhaustive, and was not compiled in any…

Nucleation and growth of sub-3 nm particles in the polluted urban atmosphere of a megacity in China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yu, Huan; Zhou, Luyu; Dai, Liang; Shen, Wenchao; Dai, Wei; Zheng, Jun; Ma, Yan; Chen, Mindong

2016-03-01

Particle size distribution down to 1.4 nm was measured in the urban atmosphere of Nanjing, China, in spring, summer, and winter during 2014-2015. Sub-3 nm particle event, which is equivalent to nucleation event, occurred on 42 out of total 90 observation days, but new particles could grow to cloud condensation nuclei (CCN)-active sizes on only 9 days. In summer, infrequent nucleation was limited by both unfavorable meteorological conditions (high temperature and relative humidity - RH) and reduced anthropogenic precursor availability due to strict emission control measures during the 2014 Youth Olympic Games in Nanjing. The limiting factors for nucleation in winter and spring were meteorological conditions (radiation, temperature, and RH) and condensation sink, but for the further growth of sub-3 nm particles to CCN-active sizes, anthropogenic precursors again became limiting factors. Nucleation events were strong in the polluted urban atmosphere. Initial J1.4 at the onset and peak J1.4 at the noontime could be up to 2.1 × 102 and 2.5 × 103 cm-3 s-1, respectively, during the eight nucleation events selected from different seasons. Time-dependent J1.4 usually showed good linear correlations with a sulfuric acid proxy for every single event (R2 = 0.56-0.86, excluding a day with significant nocturnal nucleation), but the correlation among all eight events deteriorated (R2 = 0.17) due to temperature or season change. We observed that new particle growth rate (GR) did not increase monotonically with particle size, but had a local maximum up to 25 nm h-1 between 1 and 3 nm. The existence of local maxima GR in sub-3 nm size range, though sensitive to measurement uncertainties, gives new insight into cluster dynamics in polluted environments. In this study such growth rate behavior was interpreted as the solvation effect of organic activating vapor in newly formed inorganic nuclei.

Cairo conference to link population and sustainable development.

PubMed

1994-09-01

Couples who want to limit the size of their families but whom family planning services elude are a key factor in the persistence of high rates of fertility and rapid population growth in some countries of the Asian and Pacific region (ESCAP). High fertility and rapid growth are linked to high rates of maternal and child mortality, poverty, and increasing pressure on the environment. These issues will be considered at the International Conference on Population and Development at Cairo from 5 to 13 September, 1994. The Conference objectives entail the promotion of more effective national programs to meet individual needs of women, and to bring population into balance with available resources. The Conference is expected to adopt a program of action covering the period 1995-2015. A preparatory meeting, the Fourth Asian and Pacific Population Conference, adopted the Bali Declaration on Population and Development as a blueprint for ESCAP region countries. Unprecedented growth in human numbers, widespread poverty, social and economic in equality and wasteful consumption are accelerating the depletion of resources and environmental degradation. Rural-to-urban migration will also be major concerns at the Conference. Real poverty and unemployment are the leading causes of urbanization. Recent United Nations data show that by 2005 half the world's population will be urban. Development policies affecting the rural work-force need to emphasize gender equity and access to land tenure and credit. Economic growth and improvement in the quality of life have been fastest in those areas where the status of women is highest, therefore population policies will succeed only if women are equal to men in making and directing policy. The draft Program of Action would commit the world community to goals in education, especially for girls; reduction of infant, child and maternal mortality; and universal access to family planning and reproductive health services.

Bending the urban flow: a construction-migration strategy.

PubMed

Shaw, R P

1980-01-01

The excess rate of migration to urban centers is a problem affecting over 50 developing countries and 18 developed ones (68% of the world's population). Policies that rely on compulsion or disincentives have mostly failed because they do not deal with the cause of the problem. This paper proposes a strategy of increasing or decreasing the rate of housing construction in different urban areas as a means of stimulating or reducing migration to those areas; in most developing areas priority is given to residential construction in already congested metropolitan areas. 5 assumptions are the basis for this approach: 1) migrants tend to gravitate to the most powerful growth poles; 2) residential construction is a leading sector of regional and urban economies; 3) the encouragement of construction activity will make itself felt indirectly via its effect on construction-related employment; 4) rates of residential construction may be manipulated through government policy affecting the cost of materials, availability of loans, level of unionization, and price of housing; and 5) residential construction is amenable to quick policy action. The central idea of the strategy is that an increase in residential construction will exercise a pull on migrants, increasing job opportunities, raising incomes, lowering housing costs, and improving the chances of home ownership. This idea has been verified by various projects in Hong Kong, Ghana, Venezuela, Brazil, Bahrain, Mexico, Colombia, Poland, USSR, and the UK. In Bahrain low-income housing programs have been used to relocate Bahraini nationals in new outlying suburbs and to promote population growth in rural villages. In Mexico self-help and low-income housing programs have helped to redirect migrants headed for small towns toward smaller communities. There is also evidence to show that building construction has the potential to expand and contribute to economic growth. Some problems of implementation might be finding an adequate economic base, the need to place new communities close to primate cities, the use of large portions of the national budget, and profit-maximizing plans have been detrimental to the speed and development of construction migration. Some benefits for smaller urban areas of construction migrants in developing countries are: 1) emphasis on the development of a labor-intensive industry, 2) little training of workers as needed, 3) it can provide the housing required by industries planning to move to smaller areas, 4) this housing will be cheaper, and 5) incentives will exist to save and invest in the smaller areas.

Urban ecology in a developing world: why advanced socioecological theory needs Africa

PubMed Central

Bunn, David N; Pickett, Steward TA; Twine, Wayne

2014-01-01

Socioecological theory, developed through the study of urban environments, has recently led to a proliferation of research focusing on comparative analyses of cities. This research emphasis has been concentrated in the more developed countries of the Northern Hemisphere (often referred to as the “Global North”), yet urbanization is now occurring mostly in the developing world, with the fastest rates of growth in sub-Saharan Africa. Countries like South Africa are experiencing a variety of land-cover changes that may challenge current assumptions about the differences between urban and rural environments and about the connectivity of these dynamic socioecological systems. Furthermore, questions concerning ecosystem services, landscape preferences, and conservation – when analyzed through rural livelihood frameworks – may provide insights into the social and ecological resilience of human settlements. Increasing research on urban development processes occurring in Africa, and on patterns of kinship and migration in the less developed countries of the “Global South”, will advance a more comprehensive worldview of how future urbanization will influence the progress of sustainable societies. PMID:24891843

Population dynamics of rural Ethiopia.

PubMed

Bariabagar, H

1978-01-01

2 rounds of the national sample surveys, conducted by the central statistical office of Ethiopia during 1964-1967 and 1969-1971, provide the only comprehensive demographic data for the country and are the basis for this discussion of rural Ethiopia's population dynamics. The population of Ethiopia is predominantly rural. Agglomerations of 2000 and over inhabitants constitute about 14% of the population, and this indicates that Ethiopia has a low level of urbanization. In rural Ethiopia, international migration was negligent in the 1970's and the age structure can be assumed to be the results of past trends of fertility and mortality conditions. The reported crude birthrate (38.2), crude death rate (12.3) and infant mortality rate (90) of rural Ethiopia fall short of the averages for African countries. Prospects of population growth of rural Ethiopia would be immense. At the rate of natural increase of between 2.4 and 3.0% per annum, the population would double in 24-29 years. Regarding population issues, the programs of the National Democratic Revolution of Ethiopia faces the following main challenging problems: 1) carrying out national population censuses in order to obtain basic information for socialist planning; 2) minimizing or curtailing the existing high urban growth rates; 3) reducing rapidly growing population; and 5) mobilizing Ethiopian women to participate in the social, economic and political life of the country in order to create favorable conditions for future fertility reduction.

Migration, settlement change and health in post-apartheid South Africa: Triangulating health and demographic surveillance with national census data1

PubMed Central

COLLINSON, MARK A.; TOLLMAN, STEPHEN M.; KAHN, KATHLEEN

2010-01-01

Background World population growth will be increasingly concentrated in the urban areas of the developing world; however, some scholars caution against the oversimplification of African urbanization noting that there may be “counter-urbanization” and a prevailing pattern of circular rural–urban migration. The aim of the paper is to examine the ongoing urban transition in South Africa in the post-apartheid period, and to consider the health and social policy implications of prevailing migration patterns. Methods Two data sets were analysed, namely the South African national census of 2001 and the Agincourt health and demographic surveillance system. A settlement-type transition matrix was constructed on the national data to show how patterns of settlement have changed in a five-year period. Using the sub-district data, permanent and temporary migration was characterized, providing migration rates by age and sex, and showing the distribution of origins and destinations. Findings The comparison of national and sub-district data highlight the following features: urban population growth, particularly in metropolitan areas, resulting from permanent and temporary migration; prevailing patterns of temporary, circular migration, and a changing gender balance in this form of migration; stepwise urbanization; and return migration from urban to rural areas. Conclusions Policy concerns include: rural poverty exacerbated by labour migration; explosive conditions for the transmission of HIV; labour migrants returning to die in rural areas; and the challenges for health information created by chronically ill migrants returning to rural areas to convalesce. Lastly, suggestions are made on how to address the dearth of relevant population information for policy-making in the fields of migration, settlement change and health. PMID:17676507

Where Deforestation Leads to Urbanization: How Resource Extraction is Leading to Urban Growth in the Brazilian Amazon.

PubMed

Richards, Peter; VanWey, Leah

2015-07-01

Developing the Amazon into a major provider of internationally traded mineral and food commodities has dramatically transformed broad expanses of tropical forests to farm and pasturelands, and to mining sites. The environmental impacts of this transformation, as well as the drivers underlying the process, have already been well documented. In this article we turn our analytical lenses to another, less examined effect of Amazon land use and environmental change, namely the creation and development of new urban areas. Here we argue that urban growth in the Amazon is a direct residual of international interest in the production of traded commodities, and of the capacity of local urban residents to capture capital and value before it is extracted from the region. Specifically, we suggest that urban growth is occurring fastest where cities have access to both rural export commodities and export corridors. We also show correlations between urban growth and lower rural population density, and cities' capacities to draw migrants from beyond their immediate rural surroundings. More broadly, we argue that urbanization in the Amazon is better interpreted as a symptom rather than a driver of the region's land use and land cover change.

Where Deforestation Leads to Urbanization: How Resource Extraction is Leading to Urban Growth in the Brazilian Amazon

PubMed Central

VanWey, Leah

2015-01-01

Developing the Amazon into a major provider of internationally traded mineral and food commodities has dramatically transformed broad expanses of tropical forests to farm and pasturelands, and to mining sites. The environmental impacts of this transformation, as well as the drivers underlying the process, have already been well documented. In this article we turn our analytical lenses to another, less examined effect of Amazon land use and environmental change, namely the creation and development of new urban areas. Here we argue that urban growth in the Amazon is a direct residual of international interest in the production of traded commodities, and of the capacity of local urban residents to capture capital and value before it is extracted from the region. Specifically, we suggest that urban growth is occurring fastest where cities have access to both rural export commodities and export corridors. We also show correlations between urban growth and lower rural population density, and cities’ capacities to draw migrants from beyond their immediate rural surroundings. More broadly, we argue that urbanization in the Amazon is better interpreted as a symptom rather than a driver of the region’s land use and land cover change. PMID:26985079

[Delineation of urban development boundary based on the combination of rigidity and elasti-city: A case of Yiwu City in Zhejiang Province, China.

PubMed

Qiu, Si Qi; Yue, Wen Ze

2018-05-01

Under the background of rapid urbanization, we took the contradiction between the rapid urbanization and resource environment protection as the starting point, conducted some theoretical research on urban growth boundary. Based on the definition of urban development boundary, we took Yiwu City, Zhejiang Province as a typical instance. Firstly, this study delimited the ecological boundary as ecological basic constraint area, using the methods of ecological red line discrimination and ecological sensitivity evaluation. Furthermore, the MCE-CA model was used in simulating the city size in 2020, making some adjustments to the moderate and low ecological-sensitive areas in the eco-sensitivity assessing, and delimiting the size of urban growth boundary and elastic control zones. The results showed that the ecological constraint area with a total area of385.2 km 2 and outside of the ecological boundary was the security line of urban development and construction. The urban growth boundary with a total area of 163.3 km 2 was not only the spatial boundary that could be constructed now, but also could meet the future development and construction. The district between the ecological boundary and urban growth boundary was an elastic control zone, in which urban development activities were allowed, but the size of construction could not exceed 8.5% of the total urban development boundary area. Our results delimited the urban development boundary under the rigidity and elasticity, which could guide the urban space development and provide a theoretical reference for China.

Urban Inequality. NBER Working Paper No. 14419

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Glaeser, Edward L.; Resseger, Matthew G.; Tobio, Kristina

2008-01-01

What impact does inequality have on metropolitan areas? Crime rates are higher in places with more inequality, and people in unequal cities are more likely to say that they are unhappy. There is also a negative association between local inequality and the growth of both income and population, once we control for the initial distribution of skills.…

Crime and American Culture. Ethics and Public Policy Essay #43.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Wilson, James Q.

The great waves of foreign immigration, the onset of rapid industrialization, the emergence of an urban working class--all features of the post Civil War United States that might have contributed to rising crime rates--did not. Ted Robert Gurr suggests that a growth of the "civilizing process" occurred in which people turned away from violence and…

Universal Basic Education: An Overall Strategy of Investment Priorities for Economic Growth.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

McMahon, Walter W.; Boediono

1992-01-01

Presents a summary of research on key aspects of the indirect effects of expanding education from grade six through grade nine, followed by a comprehensive analysis of social rates of return to investment in all levels of education in Indonesia and underemployment in urban and rural areas. (three figures, nine tables, 33 references) (MLF)

Environmental Flow Modeling Challenges for Rapidly Urbanizing Watersheds

EPA Science Inventory

It is a challenge for land use planners and water resource managers to balance water needs that support urban growth and economic development of a growing population and yet maintain ecological flow needs. Urban growth and the associated water resources development in a watershed...

Slides from the 2013 Smart Growth Summit on How to Learn from the New Orleans Urban Waters Partnership

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

Presentation Slides for 2013 Smart Growth Summit, Baton Rouge, LA, H2O Overview: How to Learn from the New Orleans Urban Waters Partnership - Danny Wiegand Urban Waters Ambassador to New Orleans November 19, 2013

Examining the contradiction in 'sustainable urban growth': an example of groundwater sustainability

USGS Publications Warehouse

Zellner, Moira L.; Reeves, Howard W.

2012-01-01

The environmental planning literature proposes a set of 'best management practices' for urban development that assumes improvement in environmental quality as a result of specific urban patterns. These best management practices, however, often do not recognise finite biophysical limits and social impacts that urban patterns alone cannot overcome. To shed light on this debate, we explore the effects of different degrees of urban clustering on groundwater levels using a coupled land-use change and groundwater-flow model. Our simulations show that specific urban forms only slow down the impact on groundwater. As population increases, the pattern in which it is accommodated ceases to matter, and widespread depletion ensues. These results are predictable, yet current planning practice tends to take growth for granted and is reluctant to envision either no-growth scenarios or the prospect of depletion. We propose to use simulations such as those presented here to aid in policy discussions that allow decision makers to question the assumption of sustainable growth and suggest alternative forms of development.

Urban growth simulation from "first principles".

PubMed

Andersson, Claes; Lindgren, Kristian; Rasmussen, Steen; White, Roger

2002-08-01

General and mathematically transparent models of urban growth have so far suffered from a lack in microscopic realism. Physical models that have been used for this purpose, i.e., diffusion-limited aggregation, dielectric breakdown models, and correlated percolation all have microscopic dynamics for which analogies with urban growth appear stretched. Based on a Markov random field formulation we have developed a model that is capable of reproducing a variety of important characteristic urban morphologies and that has realistic microscopic dynamics. The results presented in this paper are particularly important in relation to "urban sprawl," an important aspect of which is aggressively spreading low-density land uses. This type of growth is increasingly causing environmental, social, and economical problems around the world. The microdynamics of our model, or its "first principles," can be mapped to human decisions and motivations and thus potentially also to policies and regulations. We measure statistical properties of macrostates generated by the urban growth mechanism that we propose, and we compare these to empirical measurements as well as to results from other models. To showcase the open-endedness of the model and to thereby relate our work to applied urban planning we have also included a simulated city consisting of a large number of land use classes in which also topographical data have been used.

Urban sprawl, smart growth, and deliberative democracy.

PubMed

Resnik, David B

2010-10-01

Urban sprawl is an increasingly common feature of the built environment in the United States and other industrialized nations. Although there is considerable evidence that urban sprawl has adverse affects on public health and the environment, policy frameworks designed to combat sprawl-such as smart growth-have proven to be controversial, making implementation difficult. Smart growth has generated considerable controversy because stakeholders affected by urban planning policies have conflicting interests and divergent moral and political viewpoints. In some of these situations, deliberative democracy-an approach to resolving controversial public-policy questions that emphasizes open, deliberative debate among the affected parties as an alternative to voting-would be a fair and effective way to resolve urban-planning issues.

Policies for managing urban growth and landscape change: a key to conservation in the 21st century

Treesearch

David N., tech. ed. Bengston

2005-01-01

Protecting natural areas in the face of urbanization is one of the most important challenges for conservation in the 21st century. The papers in this collection examine key issues related to growth management and selected approaches to managing urban growth and minimizing its social and environmental costs. They were presented at the 2004 annual meeting of the Society...

Impacts of urbanization on Indian summer monsoon rainfall extremes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shastri, Hiteshri; Paul, Supantha; Ghosh, Subimal; Karmakar, Subhankar

2015-01-01

areas have different climatology with respect to their rural surroundings. Though urbanization is a worldwide phenomenon, it is especially prevalent in India, where urban areas have experienced an unprecedented rate of growth over the last 30 years. Here we take up an observational study to understand the influence of urbanization on the characteristics of precipitation (specifically extremes) in India. We identify 42 urban regions and compare their extreme rainfall characteristics with those of surrounding rural areas. We observe that, on an overall scale, the urban signatures on extreme rainfall are not prominently and consistently visible, but they are spatially nonuniform. Zonal analysis reveals significant impacts of urbanization on extreme rainfall in central and western regions of India. An additional examination, to understand the influences of urbanization on heavy rainfall climatology, is carried with station level data using a statistical method, quantile regression. This is performed for the most populated city of India, Mumbai, in pair with a nearby nonurban area, Alibaug; both having similar geographic location. The derived extreme rainfall regression quantiles reveal the sensitivity of extreme rainfall events to the increased urbanization. Overall the study identifies the climatological zones in India, where increased urbanization affects regional rainfall pattern and extremes, with a detailed case study of Mumbai. This also calls attention to the need of further experimental investigation, for the identification of the key climatological processes, in different regions of India, affected by increased urbanization.

Ambient Air Pollution and Morbidity in Chinese.

PubMed

Hu, Li-Wen; Lawrence, Wayne R; Liu, Yimin; Yang, Bo-Yi; Zeng, Xiao-Wen; Chen, Wen; Dong, Guang-Hui

2017-01-01

The rapid economic growth in China is coupled with a severe ambient air pollution, which poses a huge threat to human health and the sustainable development of social economy. The rapid urbanization and industrialization over the last three decades have placed China as one of countries with the greatest disease burden in world. Notably, the prevalence rate of chronic noncommunicable diseases (CND), including respiratory diseases, CVD, and stroke, in 2010 reaches 16.9%. The continuous growth of the incidence of CND urgent needs for effective regulatory action for health protection. This study aims to evaluate the impact of rapid urbanization on status of ambient air pollution and associated adverse health effects on the incidence and the burden of CND and risk assessment. Our findings would be greatly significant in the prediction of the risk of ambient air pollution on CND and for evidence-based policy making and risk management in China.

Urban development and employment in Abidjan.

PubMed

Joshi, H; Lubell, H; Mouly, J

1975-04-01

The city of Abidjan in the Ivory Coast has grown physically, economically, and demographically at rates exceeding all reasonable expectation. Yet, as in many other development nations, the employment generated by Abidjan's rapid economic expansion has failed to keep pace with the increase in working population it has attracted. Consequently, economic success has been accompanied by a variety of social strains. Some of these have been discussed in earlier issues of the "International Labour Review" by Louis Roussel. This discussion expands on Roussel's earlier treatment by focusing more specifically on several facets of the urban employment problem created by the rapid growth of Abidjan. Attention is directed to labor supply and employment, factors affecting migration, foreign Africans in the Ivory Coast labor force; the urban informal sector; urban infrastructure and development; social problems of population pressure; employment policy options (current government policies and other policy options); and general issues and policy alternatives (motivations for rural urban migration, smaller urban centers as alternative growth poles, and distributing the gains from development). Several essential features of the employment problem stem from the rural urban distribution of the workforce. The rural labor force, including temporary seasonal workers from the savannah countries to the north, remains more or less in balance with increasing rural employment opportunities, since the migration of Ivory Coast nationals to the cities is balanced by the inflow of foreign workers. In contrast, the influx of migrants into urban areas has led to a more rapid increase in the urban labor force than in urban employment, with a consequent rise in unemployment. In 1970 the Abidjan rate of open unemployment was probably around 20%. At this time, most people's idea of a desirable job is one in the formal sector of the urban economy. If there is to be any hope of an eventual balance between expectations and reality, it must be realized that an increasing share of the urban labor force will have to end up in the informal sector. Different attitudes towards work in the informal sector are needed on the part of both young people entering the labor force and of government policy makers. The latter should be seeking ways to increase productivity and incomes in the informal sector rather than for ways to destroy it. Current government policies include the training and educating of nationals to replace foreign technicians and managers, increasing the attractiveness of the rural milieu by the promotion of cooperatives, attempts to reform the land tenure system, the supply of electricity to villages, and the introduction of educational television; and adapting the educational system and technical training programs to the needs of the economy.

Urban Ecology: Patterns of Population Growth and Ecological Effects

Treesearch

Wayne C. Zipperer; Steward T.A. Pickett

2012-01-01

Currently, over 50% of the world’s population lives in urban areas. By 2050, this estimate is expected to be 70%. This urban growth, however, is not uniformly distributed around the world. The majority of it will occur in developing nations and create megacities whose populations exceed at least 10 million people. Not all urban areas, however, are growing. Some are...

Implications of rural-urban migration for conservation of the Atlantic Forest and urban growth in Misiones, Argentina (1970-2030).

PubMed

Izquierdo, Andrea E; Grau, Héctor R; Aide, T Mitchell

2011-05-01

Global trends of increasing rural-urban migration and population urbanization could provide opportunities for nature conservation, particularly in regions where deforestation is driven by subsistence agriculture. We analyzed the role of rural population as a driver of deforestation and its contribution to urban population growth from 1970 to the present in the Atlantic Forest of Argentina, a global conservation priority. We created future land-use-cover scenarios based on human demographic parameters and the relationship between rural population and land-cover change between 1970 and 2006. In 2006, native forest covered 50% of the province, but by 2030 all scenarios predicted a decrease that ranged from 18 to 39% forest cover. Between 1970 and 2001, rural migrants represented 20% of urban population growth and are expected to represent less than 10% by 2030. This modeling approach shows how rural-urban migration and land-use planning can favor nature conservation with little impact on urban areas.

Effects of urban growth controls on intercity commuting.

PubMed

Ogura, Laudo M

2010-01-01

This paper presents an empirical study of the effects of urban growth controls on the intercity commuting of workers. Growth controls (land use regulations that attempt to restrict population growth and urban sprawl) have increased housing prices and diverted population growth to uncontrolled cities. It has been suggested that resulting changes in local labour supply might stimulate intercity commuting from uncontrolled to controlled cities. To test this hypothesis, a gravity model of commuting flows between places in California is estimated using alternative econometric methods (OLS, Heckman selection and count-data). The possibility of spatial dependence in commuting flows is also taken into consideration. Results suggest larger commuting flows to destination places that restrict residential growth.

Regional demographic trends from long-term studies of saguaro (Carnegiea gigantea) across the northern Sonoran Desert

USGS Publications Warehouse

Pierson, Elizabeth A.; Betancourt, Julio L.; Turner, Raymond M.

2013-01-01

Ten saguaro (Carnegiea gigantea) populations in the northern Sonoran Desert were monitored from 1959 to 2005 to discriminate how climate influences plant growth, abundance, reproductive potential, survivorship, age structure and regeneration trends. Thousands of saguaros were measured to determine site-specific growth rates and survivorship through time. Observed growth rates were used to predict the ages of saguaros and reconstruct local and regional regeneration patterns back to the late 18th century. Both growth rates and degree of branching generally tracked temperature and moisture gradients. Site-specific age-height models explained 89-97% of variance in observed ages, with a slope of nearly one. Regeneration was more consistent at sites in the western (hotter/drier) than eastern (cooler/wetter) sites, which exhibited clear multidecadal variability in regeneration rates. Averaged across the region, saguaro regeneration rates were highest from 1780 to 1860, coincident with wet conditions and high Pinus ponderosa recruitment in the highlands. Milder and wetter winters and protection from livestock grazing likely promoted late 20th century regeneration surges at some sites. Predictions of saguaro population dynamics in the 21st century likely will be confounded by the saguaro's episodic and asynchronous regeneration, continued urbanization, ongoing grass invasions and associated wildfires, and changing climate.

The influence of nitrogen and phosphorus on phytoplankton growth and assemblage composition in four coastal, southeastern USA systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Reed, Michelle L.; Pinckney, James L.; Keppler, Charles J.; Brock, Larissa M.; Hogan, Sarah B.; Greenfield, Dianne I.

2016-08-01

Human population density, and related urbanization, is predicted to increase along coastlines worldwide. Varied land uses will likely influence nutrient delivery, mainly nitrogen (N) and phosphorus (P), to the coast and thereby phytoplankton assemblages. This study examined spatial and seasonal variability in phytoplankton community composition and growth responses to N (ammonium, nitrate, or urea) and/or P (orthophosphate) using in situ bioassays during 2011-2013. Study sites were in four southeastern US (South Carolina) coastal systems with distinct land uses: a forested tidal creek, a forested/agricultural tidal creek, an urbanized tidal creek, and a stormwater detention pond. Results showed that sites were primarily N-limited and diatoms typically contributed most to phytoplankton biomass (chlorophyll a). Phytoplankton communities at the more developed sites (urbanized creek and stormwater detention pond) not only exhibited higher biomass and growth rates with N, particularly urea, additions compared to the less-developed sites (forested and forested/agricultural tidal creeks), they often included harmful algal bloom species, particularly cyanobacteria, dinoflagellates, and raphidophytes. These findings suggest that phytoplankton community responses to N-form are site specific, influenced by surrounding land cover, and N inputs (e.g. fertilizers) may cause algal blooms. Results both underscore the role of development as a driver of coastal production and can be informative for water quality management.

Monitoring and modeling land-use change in the Pearl River Delta, China, using satellite imagery and socioeconomic data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Seto, Karen Ching-Yee

Over the last two decades, rapid rates of economic growth in the People's Republic of China have converted large areas of natural ecosystems and agricultural lands to urban uses. The size and rate of these land-use changes may affect local and regional climate, biogeochemistry, and food supply. To assess these impacts, both the amount of land converted and its relation to socioeconomic drivers must be determined. This research combines satellite remote sensing, which is used to monitor land conversion, with socioeconomic data to model the economic and demographic drivers of land-use change in the Pearl River Delta of Southern China. This research modifies existing techniques and develops new methods to assess the type, amount, and timing of land-use change from annual Landsat Thematic Mapper (TM) images from 1988 to 1996. During this period, most of the land-use change is conversion of agricultural land to urban areas. Results indicate that urban areas, increased by over 300% between 1988 and 1996. Field assessments confirm these results and indicate that the land-use change map is highly accurate at 93.5%. To use these data as inputs to statistical models, the year of land conversion derived from satellite imagery must be unbiased. A new method that uses time series techniques identifies the date at which land-use changes occur from a sequential series of TM images. The accuracy and bias of the dates of change identified compare favorably to a more conventional remote sensing change detection technique and may have the additional advantages of reducing efforts required to assemble training data and to correct for atmospheric effects. Data on the quantity of land-use change and the timing of these changes are used in conjunction with socioeconomic data to estimate statistical models that identify and quantify the demographic and economic changes on two types of land conversion: urbanization of agricultural land and urbanization of natural vegetation. Results confirm conventional theory that wage differentials between urban and agricultural sectors, foreign direct investment, and income growth are important determinants of land-use change.

The Effects of Urbanization and Flood Control on Sediment Discharge of a Southern California River, Evidence of a Dilution Effect

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Warrick, J. A.; Orzech, K. M.; Rubin, D. M.

2004-12-01

The southern California landscape has undergone dramatic urbanization and population growth during the past 60 years and currently supports almost 20 million inhabitants. During this time, rivers of the region have been altered with damming, channel straightening and hardening, and water transfer engineering. These changes have drastically altered water and sediment discharge from most of the region's drainage basins. Here we focus on changes in sediment discharge from the largest watershed of southern California, the Santa Ana River. Order-of-magnitude drops in the suspended sediment rating curves (the relationship between suspended sediment concentration and instantaneous river discharge) are observed between 1967 and 2001, long after the construction of a major flood control dam in 1941. These sediment concentration decreases do not, however, represent alteration of the total sediment flux from the basin (a common interpretation of sediment rating curves), but rather a dilution of suspended sediment by increases (approx. 4x) in stormwater discharge associated with urbanization. Increases in peak and total stormwater discharge are consistent with runoff patterns from urbanizing landscapes, supporting our hypothesis that the diluting water originated from stormwater runoff generated in urban areas both up- and downstream of dams. Our dilution hypothesis is further supported with water and sediment budgets, dilution calculations, and suspended and bed grain size information.

Gridded population projections for the coastal zone under the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Merkens, Jan-Ludolf; Reimann, Lena; Hinkel, Jochen; Vafeidis, Athanasios T.

2016-10-01

Existing quantifications of the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP) used for climate impact assessment do not account for subnational population dynamics such as coastward-migration that can be critical for coastal impact assessment. This paper extends the SSPs by developing spatial projections of global coastal population distribution for the five basic SSPs. Based on a series of coastal migration drivers we develop coastal narratives for each SSP. These narratives account for differences in coastal and inland population developments in urban and rural areas. To spatially distribute population, we use the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA) national population and urbanisation projections and employ country-specific growth rates, which differ for coastal and inland as well as for urban and rural regions, to project coastal population for each SSP. These rates are derived from spatial analysis of historical population data and adjusted for each SSP based on the coastal narratives. Our results show that, compared to the year 2000 (638 million), the population living in the Low Elevated Coastal Zone (LECZ) increases by 58% to 71% until 2050 and exceeds one billion in all SSPs. By the end of the 21st century, global coastal population declines to 830-907 million in all SSPs except for SSP3, where coastal population growth continues and reaches 1.184 billion. Overall, the population living in the LECZ is higher by 85 to 239 million compared to the original IIASA projections. Asia expects the highest absolute growth (238-303 million), Africa the highest relative growth (153% to 218%). Our results highlight regions where high coastal population growth is expected and will therefore face an increased exposure to coastal flooding.

An overview of the population dynamics in Malaysia.

PubMed

Arshat, H; Tey Nai Peng

1988-06-01

Between 1900 and 1985 the population of Malaysia has increased from 2 million to 16 million. Before World War II most of the growth was due to immigration from China and India; after World War II it was due to natural increase. The crude birth rate appears to be leveling off at about 31.3 and the crude death rate at 5.3. At the current rate of growth the total population will be about 32 million by 2015. The proportion of urban population increased from 27% in 1979 to 34% in 1980. In 1980 83% of the population lived in Peninsular Malaysia (39% of the land area), and 17% lived in Sabah and Sarawak (61% of the land area). Population density ranges from 12 persons per square kilometer in Sarawak to 4521 in the Federal Republic of Kuala Lumpur. The median age of the population is 17.4 years; 40% are under 14, and 3.6% are over 65. In most age groups there are more women than men. The annual growth rate for Malays is higher than for Chinese and Indians, and Malays constituted 55% of the population in 1980. 34% are Chinese and 10% are Indian. Total fertility rate declined from 68/1000 in 1957 to 39/1000 in 1985. Malay fertility (4.8 children) is higher than either Indian (2.9) or Chinese (2.7) Malay fertility has been increasing while that of Indians and Chinese is decreasing due to contraception. Also, among all 3 groups age at marriage has increased. Data from the 1984/85 Malaysian Population and Family Survey show that the differential fertility of the 3 groups is due largely to rural/urban distribution, education, and work patterns. Ideal family size, according to the survey, is 4.8. The National Population and Family Development Program would like to achieve a growth rate of 2%/year, and family planning knowledge has become virtually universal. KAP surveys show that by 1984 contraceptive prevalence was 51%; however 42% of all eligible women were using unreliable methods. In terms of efficient methods, contraceptive prevalence rate was 16% for Malays, 47% for Chinese, and 40% for Indians. Crude death rate has declined to less than 6/1000, largely due to reductions in infant and child mortality. Internal migration to the cities has done much to achieve the objectives of the New Economic Policy to equalize location and vocations of the 3 ethnic groups. Urbanization has slowed since the launching of various land development schemes in the 1960s. The population policy of the government is to achieve a stabilized population of 70 million by year 2070, which means that the fertility level must decrease from 4 to 2 children per woman. By 2000 when the population is expected to reach 22.4 million, the percentages of Malays, Chinese, and Indians is expected to be 61.5%, 28.7%, and 9.8% respectively.

Social policy and population growth in South-East Asia.

PubMed

You Poh Seng Rao, B; Shantakumar, G

1974-01-01

Social and population policies are considered for the 10 countries comprising Southeast Asia--Burma, Indonesia, the Khmer Republic, Laos, Malaysia, the Philippines, Singapore, Thailand, North Vietnam, and South Vietnam. All but Singapore have high fertility rates and Burma, Indonesia, the Khmer Republic, Laos and the two Vietnams have high mortality rates also. Government expenditures for education and social security systems is expanding throughout the region and it is hoped that their continued growth will contribute substantially to the effective implementation of population policies. Population policies in the 5 countries which have them are discussed. These are Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, Singapore, and Thailand. It is noted, however, that declaration of policy is but the first step. Strategies and programs differ from one country to the next and depend very much on the stage of development, level of literacy, degree of urbanization, and other factors. Family planning activities generally are endogenous to urban social systems but exogenous to rural social systems. Thus, the rural elite has a large role to play in making population policies an integral part of rural life. The possibility is considered of developing workable incentive packages integrating health, education, and social security benefits with suitable emphasis on fertility reduction.

Urban tree database and allometric equations

Treesearch

E. Gregory McPherson; Natalie S. van Doorn; Paula J.  Peper

2016-01-01

Information on urban tree growth underpins models used to calculate the effects of trees on the environment and human well-being. Maximum tree size and other growth data are used by urban forest managers, landscape architects, and planners to select trees most suitable to the amount of growing space, thereby reducing costly future conflicts between trees and...

School services pattern in urban and rural areas: A comparatives study (Case study: Elementary school in Malang City and Malang Regency)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Setyono, D. A.; Cahyo, D. D.

2017-06-01

Availability of public facilities are important to support community needs and activities, such as educational facilities (school). Those facilities was needed to endorse the development program implementation which are conducted both of local and national government especially to boost the human resources qualities. This study aims to measures service rates of elementary school in the Malang City and Malang Regency based on supply aspect especially on availability of school unit and also configures the spatial pattern of the school services. Theses study conducted based on the disparity of facility services hypotheses especially on school service provision between urban and rural areas, which are Malang City considered as urban areas and Malang Regency as rural areas. According to the analysis results, rate of elementary school services in the Malang City defined by CGC method about 272% while in Malang the Regency are slightly higher at 319%. The pattern of school services in Malang City relatively similar between its districts, except Klojen District as the growth center of Malang City has the highest rate of services. Meanwhile in the Malang Regency has unique pattern which are high service rates located in the Kepanjen District areas as the growth center of Malang Regency and also several districts that located surrounding the Malang City areas which has impact of city developments. Another district has the lowest service rates due to physical limitations, such as those districts/villages located in the forest areas, coastal areas, or mountainous areas. It is means that students in Malang Regency can access elementary school freely as students in Malang City, they are not only can choose the school in their residential areas but also they can access school everywhere especially from their neighboring areas. It also noticed that there are significant differences of elementary school services between urban center areas and suburban or peripheral areas so that appropriate policy measures are needed to provide equal and balance of educational facilities development throughout each areas. The policy should be arranged appropriately especially in Malang Regency in accordance to the special characteristics of each areas in aims to promote adequate school services and reach all areas equally.

Urban growth in American cities : glimpses of U.S. urbanization

USGS Publications Warehouse

Auch, Roger; Taylor, Janis; Acevedo, William

2004-01-01

The Earth's surface is changing rapidly. Changes are local, regional, national, and even global in scope. Some changes have natural causes, such as earthquakes or drought. Other changes, such as urban expansion, agricultural intensification, resource extraction, and water resources development, are examples of human-induced change that have significant impact upon people, the economy, and resources. The consequences that result from these changes are often dramatic and widespread (Buchanan, Acevedo, and Zirbes, 2002)It is the role of the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) to provide useful and relevant scientific information both to the agencies within the Department of the Interior and to the Nation in general. In an effort to comply with this task, USGS scientists are assessing the status of, and the trends in, the Nation's land surface. This assessment provides useful information for regional and national land use decisionmaking. This knowledge can be used to deal with issues of significance to the Nation, such as quality-of-life, ecology of urban environments, ecosystem health, ecological integrity, water quality and quantity concerns, resource availability, vulnerability to natural hazards, safeguards to human health, air and land quality, and accessibility to scientific information. Results of these assessments can also be analyzed to reveal rates and trends in land use change. Results from urban growth studies provide a firm foundation for continuing research that explores the consequences of human modification of the landscape.The USGS seeks to illustrate and explain the spatial history of urban growth and corresponding land use change. Scientists are studying urban environments from a regional perspective and a time scale of decades to measure the changes that have occurred in order to help understand the impact of anticipated changes in the future.Within this booklet are pairs of images of selected urbanized regions from across the Nation. These image pairs illustrate the transformation that these areas have undergone over two decades. Specifically, they depict changes in the extent of urban land. Each change pair is composed of one image from the 1970s and one image from the 1990s. Accompanying each image pair is a brief historical geography of factors that helped facilitate major changes that have occurred since the founding of the main city and the consequences and challenges of regional urban growth. The goal of this publication is to provide an illustration of urban change that is easily understood by a broad audience.The images used throughout this booklet were generated from land cover data developed by the USGS. The data sources include the Geographic Information Retrieval and Analysis System (GIRAS) for the 1970s images and the National Land Cover Dataset (NLCD) for the 1990s images. GIRAS digital maps are based on photointerpretations completed in the mid-1970s. The NLCD is a land cover dataset for the conterminous United States based on 1992 Landsat thematic mapper (TM) satellite imagery and supplemental data (fig. 1a and fig. 1b). The USGS distributes both of these land use and land cover digital datasets.The images were developed by using a geographic information system (GIS). The GIRAS and NLCD datasets were used to identify urban land within each region. In the final images all urban areas are shown in red. A shaded-relief map of each region was used to display the topographic context of the red polygon coverage. For all of these images, urban land is defined as areas transformed into a built-up environment for human use. It includes residential areas, commercial and industrial developments, transportation features, and institutions.

Growth and body composition of Peruvian infants in a periurban setting

PubMed Central

Iannotti, Lora L.; Zavaleta, Nelly; León, Zulema; Caulfield, Laura E.

2010-01-01

Background Previous growth studies of Peruvian children have featured high stunting rates and limited information about body composition. Objective We aimed to characterize anthropometric measures of Peruvian infants 0 to 12 months of age in relation to the international growth references and biological, environmental, and socioeconomic factors. Methods Infants (n = 232) were followed longitudinally from birth through 12 months of age from a prenatal zinc supplementation trial conducted in Lima, Peru, between 1995 and 1997. Anthropometric measures of growth and body composition were obtained at enrollment from mothers and monthly through 1 year of age from infants. Weekly morbidity and dietary intake surveillance was carried out during the second half of infancy. Results The prevalence rates of stunting, underweight, and wasting did not exceed 4% based on the World Health Organization growth references. Infants of mothers from high-altitude regions had larger chest circumference (p = .006) and greater length (p = .06) by 12 months. Significant predictors of growth and body composition throughout infancy were age, sex, anthropometric measurements at birth, breastfeeding, maternal anthropometric measurements, primiparity, prevalence of diarrhea among children, and the altitude of the region of maternal origin. No associations were found for maternal education, asset ownership, or sanitation and hygiene factors. Conclusions Peruvian infants in this urban setting had lower rates of stunting than expected. Proximal and familial conditions influenced growth throughout infancy. PMID:19927604

Interannual variations in surface urban heat island intensity and associated drivers in China.

PubMed

Yao, Rui; Wang, Lunche; Huang, Xin; Zhang, Wenwen; Li, Junli; Niu, Zigeng

2018-09-15

The spatial, diurnal and seasonal variations of surface urban heat islands (SUHIs) have been investigated in many places, but we still have limited understanding of the interannual variations of SUHIs and associated drivers. In this study, the interannual variations in SUHI intensity (SUHII, derived from MODIS land surface temperature (LST) data (8-day composites of twice-daily observations), urban LST minus rural) and their relationships with climate variability and urbanization were analyzed in 31 cities in China for the period 2001-2015. Significant increasing trends of SUHII were observed in 71.0%, 58.1%, 25.8% and 54.8% the cities in summer days (SDs), summer nights (SNs), winter days (WDs) and winter nights (WNs), respectively. Pearson's correlation analyses were first performed from a temporal perspective, which were different from a spatial perspective as previous studies. The results showed that the SUHII in SDs and WDs was negatively correlated with the background LST and mean air temperature in most of the cities. The nighttime SUHII in most cities was negatively and positively correlated with total precipitation and total sunshine duration, respectively. Average wind speed has little effect on SUHII. Decreasing vegetation and increased population were the main factors that contributed to the increased SUHII in SDs and SNs, while albedo only influenced the SUHII in WDs. In addition, Pearson's correlation analyses across cities showed that cities with higher decreasing rates of vegetation exhibited higher increasing rates of the SUHII in SDs and WDs. Cities with larger population growth rates do not necessarily have higher increasing rates of SUHII. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Urbanization and Slum Formation

PubMed Central

Phua, Kai Hong

2007-01-01

The formation of slums need not be inevitable with rapid urbanization. Such an argument appears to be contradicted by evidence of large slum populations in a large number of developing countries and particularly in rapidly urbanizing regions like Asia. The evidence discussed suggests that city authorities faced with rapid urban development lack the capacity to cope with the diverse demands for infrastructural provision to meet economic and social needs. Not only are strategic planning and intervention major issues in agenda to manage rapid urbanization, but city governments are not effectively linking the economic development trajectory to implications for urban growth and, hence, housing needs. In the following discussion, a case study is presented in support of the argument that city governments have to first recognize and then act to establish the link that is crucial between economic development, urban growth, and housing. This is the agendum that has been largely neglected by city and national governments that have been narrowly focused on economic growth with the consequent proliferation of slum formation as a housing solution. PMID:17387618

An evaluation of bur oak (Quercus macrocarpa) decline in the urban forest of Winnipeg, Manitoba, Canada

USGS Publications Warehouse

Catton, H.A.; St., George; Remphrey, W.R.

2007-01-01

Winnipeg, Manitoba, Canada, has a large, indigenous population of bur oak (Quercus macrocarpa Michx.). In the 1980s, many of these trees were showing signs of decline, a disease caused by a complex of abiotic and secondary biotic stressing agents. Potential causal factors were investigated by comparing various aspects of 120 bur oaks visually rated as healthy or declined based on crown dieback levels. The results indicated that many selected bur oak trees predated surrounding urban development and that declined trees were significantly older with more severe stem wounds and competition from surrounding trees than healthy specimens. Average annual growth ring widths of healthy and declined trees were similar in the early part of the 20th century. However, decline actually began decades before symptoms were noticed, coinciding with a period of in tense city-wide urban development, as growth of declined trees was slower than that of healthy trees beginning sporadically in the 1940s and consistently from 1974 to 2001. During the early years of decline, the year-by-year separation in ring width between the two categories was significantly positively related to precipitation levels. This suggested that in wet years, declined trees may have been surrounded by unfavorable water-logged soils, possibly as a result of natural drainage patterns being impeded by urban development. ?? 2007 International Society of Arboriculture.

An obsolete dichotomy? Rethinking the rural–urban interface in terms of food security and production in the global south.

PubMed

Lerner, Amy M; Eakin, Hallie

2011-01-01

The global food system is coming under increasing strain in the face of urban population growth. The recent spike in global food prices (2007–08) provoked consumer protests, and raised questions about food sovereignty and how and where food will be produced. Concurrently, for the first time in history the majority of the global population is urban, with the bulk of urban growth occurring in smaller-tiered cities and urban peripheries, or ‘peri-urban’ areas of the developing world. This paper discusses the new emerging spaces that incorporate a mosaic of urban and rural worlds, and reviews the implications of these spaces for livelihoods and food security. We propose a modified livelihoods framework to evaluate the contexts in which food production persists within broader processes of landscape and livelihood transformation in peri-urban locations. Where and how food production persists are central questions for the future of food security in an urbanising world. Our proposed framework provides directions for future research and highlights the role of policy and planning in reconciling food production with urban growth.

Landscape analysis of urban growth patterns in Seremban, Malaysia, using spatio-temporal data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Aburas, Maher M.; Abdullah, Sabrina H.; Ramli, Mohammad F.; As'shari, Zulfa H.

2016-06-01

Urban growth is one of the major issues that have played a significant role in destroying the ecosystem in recent years. Landscape analysis is an important technique widely used to evaluate urban growth patterns. In this study, four land-use maps from 1984, 1990, 2000, and 2010 have been used to analyze an urban landscape. The values of a built-up area were initially computed using a geographic information system environment based on the spatial gradient approach. Mathematical matrices were then used to determine the amount of change in urban patches in each direction. Results of the number of patches, landscape shape index, aggregation index, and total edges confirmed that the urban patches in Seremban, Malaysia, have become more dispersed from 2000 to 2010. The urban patches have also become more continuous, especially in the north-western part of Seremban as a result of the urban development in the Nilai District. These results indicate the necessity to create new policies in the city to protect the sustainability of the land use of Seremban.

[Profamilia: immense unknown contribution].

PubMed

Ramirez Ocampo, J

1990-12-01

In late 1965, when he presented himself to the International Planned Parenthood Federation headquarters in London weeks after founding the Profamilia Foundation, Dr. Fernando Tamayo was an unknown Colombian physician with a mission to modify Colombia's very rapid rate of population growth. Colombia in 1964 has a population of 17.5 million growing at an annual rate of 3.4%. By 1973, the population was 22.9 million and growing at 2.7%. Cultural, religious, and moral obstacles precluded an aggressive family planning campaign, which would have aroused violent resistance. Profamilia personnel worked discreetly but persistently, convinced that they would see few short term results but that their effect would be immense in the long run. Family planning is partly a process of educating families in the health, socioeconomic, and psychological benefits of smaller families. Profamilia has a centralized organization which administers 3 main programs, the clinical program with 40 traditional clinics in major cities and 8 well-accepted male clinics, the sterilization program in clinics and mobile units, and the community-based distribution program which distributes pills, condoms, and IUDs through 3000 community posts under the direction of 120 instructors. Between 1964-90, Colombia's total fertility rate declined from 9.2 to 4.4 in rural areas, from 5.2 to 2.2 in urban areas, and from 7.0 to 2.8 overall. The rate of population growth declined from 3.4 to 1.8%. It has been estimated that over half the decline is due to Profamilia services. The total investment by Profamilia during its history was US $100 million. The average cost of protecting a couple against unwanted pregnancy is US $5.26 per year. Colombia's population is projected to increase from 30 to 54 million between 1985 and 2025 even if the growth rate declines from 1.8% in 1990 to 1.3% in 2025. The most worrisome aspect of the projected growth is its concentration in urban areas, which are already beset by poverty, inadequate basic services, and a limited potential water supply already threatened by deforestation. It is clear that the work of family planning in Colombia is not done and that much remains to be accomplished.

Urbanization and carbon dioxide emissions in Singapore: evidence from the ARDL approach.

PubMed

Ali, Hamisu Sadi; Abdul-Rahim, A S; Ribadu, Mohammed Bashir

2017-01-01

The main aim of this article is to examine empirically the impact of urbanization on carbon dioxide emissions in Singapore from 1970 to 2015. The autoregressive distributed lags (ARDL) approach is applied within the analysis. The main finding reveals a negative and significant impact of urbanization on carbon emissions in Singapore, which means that urban development in Singapore is not a barrier to the improvement of environmental quality. Thus, urbanization enhances environmental quality by reducing carbon emissions in the sample country. The result also highlighted that economic growth has a positive and significant impact on carbon emissions, which suggests that economic growth reduces environmental quality through its direct effect of increasing carbon emissions in the country. Despite the high level of urbanization in Singapore, which shows that 100 % of the populace is living in the urban center, it does not lead to more environmental degradation. Hence, urbanization will not be considered an obstacle when initiating policies that will be used to reduce environmental degradation in the country. Policy makers should consider the country's level of economic growth instead of urbanization when formulating policies to reduce environmental degradation, due to its direct impact on increasing carbon dioxide emissions.

Bringing sexual and reproductive health in the urban contexts to the forefront of the development agenda: the case for prioritizing the urban poor.

PubMed

Mberu, Blessing; Mumah, Joyce; Kabiru, Caroline; Brinton, Jessica

2014-09-01

Estimates suggest that over 90 % of population increase in the least developed countries over the next four decades will occur in urban areas. These increases will be driven both by natural population growth and rural-urban migration. Moreover, despite its status as the world's least urbanized region, the urban population in the sub-Saharan Africa region is projected to increase from under 40 % currently to over 60 % by 2050. Currently, approximately 70 % of all urban residents in the region live in slums or slum-like conditions. Sexual and reproductive health (SRH) risks for the urban poor are severe and include high rates of unwanted pregnancies, sexually transmitted infections, and poor maternal and child health outcomes. However, the links between poverty, urbanization, and reproductive health priorities are still not a major focus in the broader development agenda. Building on theoretical and empirical data, we show that SRH in urban contexts is critical to the development of healthy productive urban populations and, ultimately, the improvement of quality of life. We posit that a strategic focus on the sexual and reproductive health of urban residents will enable developing country governments achieve international goals and national targets by reducing health risks among a large and rapidly growing segment of the population. To that end, we identify key research, policy and program recommendations and strategies required for bringing sexual and reproductive health in urban contexts to the forefront of the development agenda.

Urban growth patterns in major Southeast Asian cities: Toward exposure mapping and vulnerability assessment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mandapaka, Pradeep; Kamarajugedda, Shankar A.; Lo, Edmond Y. M.

2017-04-01

Southeast Asia (SEA) is undergoing rapid urbanization, with urban population percentage increasing from 32% in 1990 to 48% in 2015. It is projected that by the year 2040, urban regions in SEA account for 60% of its total population. The region is home to 600 million people, with many densely populated cities, including megacities such as Jakarta, Bangkok, and Manila. The region has more than 20,000 islands, and many cities lie on coastal low-lands and floodplains. These geographical characteristics together with the increasing population, infrastructure growth, and changing climate makes the region highly vulnerable to natural hazards. This study assessed urban growth dynamics in major (defined as population exceeding 1 million) SEA cities using remotely sensed night-time lights (NTL) data. A recently proposed brightness gradient approach was applied on 21 years (1992-2012) of NTL annual composites to derive core-urban (CU) and peri-urban (PU) regions within each city. The study also assessed the sensitivity of above extracted urban categories to different NTL thresholds. The temporal trends in CU and PU regions were quantified, and compared with trends in socio-economic indicators. The spatial expansion of CU and PU regions were found to depend on geographical constraints and socio-economic factors. Quantification of urban growth spatial-temporal patterns, as conducted here contributes towards the understanding of exposure and vulnerability of people and infrastructures to natural hazards, as well as the evolving trends for assessment under projected urbanization conditions. This will underpin better risk assessment efforts for present and future planning.

Economic development and family size.

PubMed

Rios, R J

1991-01-01

The demographic transition in Latin America has resulted in increased family size rather than the Western European model of reduced family size. In 1905, both fertility and mortality were high in Latin America, but mortality declined more rapidly in Latin America than in Europe. In 1905, the crude birth rate for 15 selected countries averaged 44/1000 population. Western fertility at a comparable transition point was much lower at 30/1000. Between 1905 and 1960, fertility declines were evident in Uruguay, Argentina, Cuba, and Chile. Between 1960 and 1985, fertility declines appeared in Costa Rica, Panama, Brazil, and Colombia. Fertility declines were smaller in the other Latin American countries. Crude birth rates declined markedly by 1985 but may overestimate fertility decline, which is more accurately measured by standardized birth rates. Fertility decline was evident in Argentina, Chile, and Costa Rica for standardized birth rates, survivorship ratio, and births surviving past the age of 15 years. Theoretically, families are expected to reduce family size when survivorship is assured; when mortality is 25%, only four children need be planned instead of six when mortality is 50%. A result of falling mortality is a cheaper cost of producing children, which may stimulate parents to raise bigger families. Western fertility decline has been attributed to mortality decline, urbanization, increased female labor force participation, rising wages, and more efficient contraception. Comparable economic development in Latin America has not resulted in large enough changes to encourage family size limitation. A table of fertility and economic indicators for selected countries in Latin America and Europe reflects the inverse relationship between income growth, urban growth, and growth in female educational status and fertility. The regression equation explains 60% of the variation in fertility rates among Latin American countries. Explanatory power increases to 75% when female high school enrollment is added to per capita gross national product. Fertility declines in Latin America in the future will be dependent on economic development, educational advancement for women, and a reduction in rural population.

Insights to urban dynamics through landscape spatial pattern analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

TV, Ramachandra; Aithal, Bharath H.; Sanna, Durgappa D.

2012-08-01

Urbanisation is a dynamic complex phenomenon involving large scale changes in the land uses at local levels. Analyses of changes in land uses in urban environments provide a historical perspective of land use and give an opportunity to assess the spatial patterns, correlation, trends, rate and impacts of the change, which would help in better regional planning and good governance of the region. Main objective of this research is to quantify the urban dynamics using temporal remote sensing data with the help of well-established landscape metrics. Bangalore being one of the rapidly urbanising landscapes in India has been chosen for this investigation. Complex process of urban sprawl was modelled using spatio temporal analysis. Land use analyses show 584% growth in built-up area during the last four decades with the decline of vegetation by 66% and water bodies by 74%. Analyses of the temporal data reveals an increase in urban built up area of 342.83% (during 1973-1992), 129.56% (during 1992-1999), 106.7% (1999-2002), 114.51% (2002-2006) and 126.19% from 2006 to 2010. The Study area was divided into four zones and each zone is further divided into 17 concentric circles of 1 km incrementing radius to understand the patterns and extent of the urbanisation at local levels. The urban density gradient illustrates radial pattern of urbanisation for the period 1973-2010. Bangalore grew radially from 1973 to 2010 indicating that the urbanisation is intensifying from the central core and has reached the periphery of the Greater Bangalore. Shannon's entropy, alpha and beta population densities were computed to understand the level of urbanisation at local levels. Shannon's entropy values of recent time confirms dispersed haphazard urban growth in the city, particularly in the outskirts of the city. This also illustrates the extent of influence of drivers of urbanisation in various directions. Landscape metrics provided in depth knowledge about the sprawl. Principal component analysis helped in prioritizing the metrics for detailed analyses. The results clearly indicates that whole landscape is aggregating to a large patch in 2010 as compared to earlier years which was dominated by several small patches. The large scale conversion of small patches to large single patch can be seen from 2006 to 2010. In the year 2010 patches are maximally aggregated indicating that the city is becoming more compact and more urbanised in recent years. Bangalore was the most sought after destination for its climatic condition and the availability of various facilities (land availability, economy, political factors) compared to other cities. The growth into a single urban patch can be attributed to rapid urbanisation coupled with the industrialisation. Monitoring of growth through landscape metrics helps to maintain and manage the natural resources.

River chloride trends in snow-affected urban watersheds: increasing concentrations outpace urban growth rate and are common among all seasons

USGS Publications Warehouse

Corsi, Steven R.; De Cicco, Laura A.; Lutz, Michelle A.; Hirsch, Robert M.

2014-01-01

Chloride concentrations in northern U.S. included in this study have increased substantially over time with average concentrations approximately doubling from 1990 to 2011, outpacing the rate of urbanization in the northern U.S. Historical data were examined for 30 monitoring sites on 19 streams that had chloride concentration and flow records of 18 to 49 years. Chloride concentrations in most studied streams increased in all seasons (13 of 19 in all seasons; 16 of 19 during winter); maximum concentrations occurred during winter. Increasing concentrations during non-deicing periods suggest that chloride was stored in hydrologic reservoirs, such as the shallow groundwater system, during the winter and slowly released in baseflow throughout the year. Streamflow dependency was also observed with chloride concentrations increasing as streamflow decreased, a result of dilution during rainfall- and snowmelt-induced high-flow periods. The influence of chloride on aquatic life increased with time; 29% of sites studied exceeded the concentration for the USEPA chronic water quality criteria of 230 mg/L by an average of more than 100 individual days per year during 2006–2011. The rapid rate of chloride concentration increase in these streams is likely due to a combination of possible increased road salt application rates, increased baseline concentrations, and greater snowfall in the Midwestern U.S. during the latter portion of the study period.

River chloride trends in snow-affected urban watersheds: increasing concentrations outpace urban growth rate and are common among all seasons.

PubMed

Corsi, Steven R; De Cicco, Laura A; Lutz, Michelle A; Hirsch, Robert M

2015-03-01

Chloride concentrations in northern U.S. included in this study have increased substantially over time with average concentrations approximately doubling from 1990 to 2011, outpacing the rate of urbanization in the northern U.S. Historical data were examined for 30 monitoring sites on 19 streams that had chloride concentration and flow records of 18 to 49 years. Chloride concentrations in most studied streams increased in all seasons (13 of 19 in all seasons; 16 of 19 during winter); maximum concentrations occurred during winter. Increasing concentrations during non-deicing periods suggest that chloride was stored in hydrologic reservoirs, such as the shallow groundwater system, during the winter and slowly released in baseflow throughout the year. Streamflow dependency was also observed with chloride concentrations increasing as streamflow decreased, a result of dilution during rainfall- and snowmelt-induced high-flow periods. The influence of chloride on aquatic life increased with time; 29% of sites studied exceeded the concentration for the USEPA chronic water quality criteria of 230 mg/L by an average of more than 100 individual days per year during 2006-2011. The rapid rate of chloride concentration increase in these streams is likely due to a combination of possible increased road salt application rates, increased baseline concentrations, and greater snowfall in the Midwestern U.S. during the latter portion of the study period. Published by Elsevier B.V.

Sustained growth but non-sustainable urbanisation in Penang, Malaysia.

PubMed

Fold, N; Wangel, A

1998-05-01

Penang, Malaysia, has been a city characterized by urban growth and rapid industrialization for the past 25 years. Foreign capital, especially from the transnational electronics industry, has spurred the process of urban growth in the city. While the state government is clearly trying to copy and adapt some form of a Singapore model of development and growth in Penang, the quantitative and qualitative demands for labor exceed the available supply from the country's northern states. Local and national labor policies are decided without the involvement of trade unions, which lack the strength to substantially improve wages or influence the institutions of the labor market. Therefore, an energized labor market attempts to balance the upgrading of skills and the control of wages. Focus upon sustainable urbanization will renew the debate on urban, export-oriented industrialization in southeast Asia.

A study of risk in the metropolitan area of Guadalajara through dense GPS geodesy

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Marquez-Azua, B.; Saldana-Hernandez, F.; Medina de La Pena, H.

2007-05-01

Geodesic measurements from the Global Positioning System (GPS) are used extensively for basic earth science research into natural hazards and seismic risk. In the private sector, GPS technology is additionally used for cadastral and photogrammetric mapping surveys, definition of political-administrative limits, space analysis with thematic cartography, GIS, and land-use planning, with a wide variety of applied social, economic, and political purposes, including conservation of the environment. The city of Guadalajara and its surrounding urban area has expanded greatly in the last three decades as a result of industrial, commercial and housing activity that have substantially changed in their urban morphology. This period of unprecedented growth has occurred primarily in an unplanned and sometimes disarticulated and unbalanced manner, incongruous with the development of the most important city in western Mexico. The Department of Geography of the University of Guadalajara and the Institute of Territorial Information of the State of Jalisco (IITJ) have initiated a study of 89 geodetic sites that are located in the metropolitan zone of Guadalajara to assist in future planning and regulation of urban development, including urban and rural cadastral surveys and the establishment of diverse public services. Our work includes careful examination and evaluation of the quality and distribution of these geodetic sites with regard to anticipated growth of the metropolitan municipalities, and the vulnerability of urban zones to ground subsidence or landslides. Guadalajara is also located in a seismic zone, making precise continuous GPS measurements useful for identifying rates of strain accumulation and aseismic strain events that cannot be measured by seismographs.

Foraging at the wildland–urban interface decouples weather as a driver of recruitment for desert bighorn sheep

USGS Publications Warehouse

Longshore, Kathleen M.; Lowrey, Chris E.; Cummings, Patrick

2016-01-01

A growing number of ungulate populations are living within or near the wildland–urban interface. When resources at the interface are of greater quality than that of adjacent natural habitat, wildlife can be attracted to these developed areas. Little is known about how use of the wildland–urban interface by wildlife may affect vital rates. Under natural conditions, recruitment by desert bighorn sheep (Ovis canadensis nelsoni) correlates with variation in the timing and amount of rainfall that initiates and enhances growth of annual plant species. However, for populations that forage in developed areas, this relationship may become decoupled. In the River Mountains of Nevada, USA, desert bighorn sheep have been feeding in a municipal park at the wildland–urban interface since its establishment in 1985. Approximately one-third of the population now uses the park during summer months when nutritional content of natural forage is low. We hypothesized that use of this municipal area, with its abundant vegetation and water resources, may have decoupled the previous relationship between precipitation and lamb recruitment. We assessed variables known to affect lamb recruitment before (1971–1986) and after (1987–2006) establishment of the park using linear regression models. Our top candidate model for the pre-park period indicated that total November precipitation was the greatest driver of lamb recruitment in this population. After park establishment, this relationship became decoupled because lamb recruitment was no longer driven by weather variables. These results raise questions about the effects of decoupling drivers of population growth and maintaining natural populations near urban areas.

Loss of migration and urbanization in birds: a case study of the blackbird (Turdus merula).

PubMed

Møller, Anders Pape; Jokimäki, Jukka; Skorka, Piotr; Tryjanowski, Piotr

2014-07-01

Many organisms have invaded urban habitats, although the underlying factors initially promoting urbanization remain poorly understood. Partial migration may facilitate urbanization because such populations benefit from surplus food in urban environments during winter, and hence enjoy reduced fitness costs of migratory deaths. We tested this hypothesis in the European blackbird Turdus merula, which has been urbanized since the 19th century, by compiling information on timing of urbanization, migratory status, and population density for 99 cities across the continent. Timing of urbanization was spatially auto-correlated at scales up to 600 km. Analyses of timing of urbanization revealed that urbanization occurred earlier in partially migratory and resident populations than in migratory populations of blackbirds. Independently, this effect was most pronounced in the range of the distribution that currently has the highest population density, suggesting that urbanization facilitated population growth. These findings are consistent with the hypothesis that timing of urbanization is facilitated by partial migration, resulting in subsequent residency and population growth.

Advanced Telecommunications in Rural America: The Challenge of Bringing Broadband Service to All Americans.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

National Telecommunications and Information Administration (DOC), Washington, DC.

This report, in response to a request by 10 U.S. Senators examines the status of broadband deployment in the United States. The rate of deployment of broadband services will be key to future economic growth, particularly in rural areas far from urban and world markets. This report finds that rural areas, especially remote areas outside of towns,…

Calibrated Multi-Temporal Edge Images for City Infrastructure Growth Assessment and Prediction

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Al-Ruzouq, R.; Shanableh, A.; Boharoon, Z.; Khalil, M.

2018-03-01

Urban Growth or urbanization can be defined as the gradual process of city's population growth and infrastructure development. It is typically demonstrated by the expansion of a city's infrastructure, mainly development of its roads and buildings. Uncontrolled urban Growth in cities has been responsible for several problems that include living environment, drinking water, noise and air pollution, waste management, traffic congestion and hydraulic processes. Accurate identification of urban growth is of great importance for urban planning and water/land management. Recent advances in satellite imagery, in terms of improved spatial and temporal resolutions, allows for efficient identification of change patterns and the prediction of built-up areas. In this study, two approaches were adapted to quantify and assess the pattern of urbanization, in Ajman City at UAE, during the last three decades. The first approach relies on image processing techniques and multi-temporal Landsat satellite images with ground resolution varying between 15 to 60 meters. In this approach, the derived edge images (roads and buildings) were used as the basis of change detection. The second approach relies on digitizing features from high-resolution images captured at different years. The latest approach was adopted, as a reference and ground truth, to calibrate extracted edges from Landsat images. It has been found that urbanized area almost increased by 12 folds during the period 1975-2015 where the growth of buildings and roads were almost parallel until 2005 when the roads spatial expansion witnessed a steep increase due to the vertical expansion of the City. Extracted Edges features, were successfully used for change detection and quantification in term of buildings and roads.

Study of the urban evolution of Brasilia with the use of LANDSAT data

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Deoliveira, M. D. N. (Principal Investigator); Foresti, C.; Niero, M.; Parreiras, E. M. D. F.

1984-01-01

The urban growth of Brasilia within the last ten years is analyzed with special emphasis on the utilization of remote sensing orbital data and automatic image processing. The urban spatial structure and the monitoring of its temporal changes were focused in a whole and dynamic way by the utilization of MSS-LANDSAT images for June 1973, 1978 and 1983. In order to aid data interpretation, a registration algorithm implemented at the Interactive Multispectral Image Analysis System (IMAGE-100) was utilized aiming at the overlap of multitemporal images. The utilization of suitable digital filters, combined with the images overlap, allowed a rapid identification of areas of possible urban growth and oriented the field work. The results obtained permitted an evaluation of the urban growth of Brasilia, taking as reference the proposed stated for the construction of the city.

A time series of urban extent in China using DSMP/OLS nighttime light data

PubMed Central

Chen, Dongsheng; Chen, Le; Wang, Huan; Guan, Qingfeng

2018-01-01

Urban extent data play an important role in urban management and urban studies, such as monitoring the process of urbanization and changes in the spatial configuration of urban areas. Traditional methods of extracting urban-extent information are primarily based on manual investigations and classifications using remote sensing images, and these methods have such problems as large costs in labor and time and low precision. This study proposes an improved, simplified and flexible method for extracting urban extents over multiple scales and the construction of spatiotemporal models using DMSP/OLS nighttime light (NTL) for practical situations. This method eliminates the regional temporal and spatial inconsistency of thresholding NTL in large-scale and multi-temporal scenes. Using this method, we have extracted the urban extents and calculated the corresponding areas on the county, municipal and provincial scales in China from 2000 to 2012. In addition, validation with the data of reference data shows that the overall accuracy (OA), Kappa and F1 Scores were 0.996, 0.793, and 0.782, respectively. We increased the spatial resolution of the urban extent to 500 m (approximately four times finer than the results of previous studies). Based on the urban extent dataset proposed above, we analyzed changes in urban extents over time and observed that urban sprawl has grown in all of the counties of China. We also identified three patterns of urban sprawl: Early Urban Growth, Constant Urban Growth and Recent Urban Growth. In addition, these trends of urban sprawl are consistent with the western, eastern and central cities of China, respectively, in terms of their spatial distribution, socioeconomic characteristics and historical background. Additionally, the urban extents display the spatial configurations of urban areas intuitively. The proposed urban extent dataset is available for download and can provide reference data and support for future studies of urbanization and urban planning. PMID:29795685

Subsidence Induced Faulting Hazard risk maps in Mexico City and Morelia, central Mexico

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cabral-Cano, E.; Solano-Rojas, D.; Hernández-Espriu, J.; Cigna, F.; Wdowinski, S.; Osmanoglu, B.; Falorni, G.; Bohane, A.; Colombo, D.

2012-12-01

Subsidence and surface faulting have affected urban areas in Central Mexico for decades and the process has intensified as a consequence of urban sprawl and economic growth. This process causes substantial damages to the urban infrastructure and housing structures and in several cities it is becoming a major factor to be considered when planning urban development, land use zoning and hazard mitigation strategies in the next decades. Subsidence is usually associated with aggressive groundwater extraction rates and a general decrease of aquifer static level that promotes soil consolidation, deformation and ultimately, surface faulting. However, local stratigraphic and structural conditions also play an important role in the development and extension of faults. Despite its potential for damaging housing, and other urban infrastructure, the economic impact of this phenomena is poorly known, in part because detailed, city-wide subsidence induced faulting risk maps have not been published before. Nevertheless, modern remote sensing techniques are most suitable for this task. We present the results of a risk analysis for subsidence induced surface faulting in two cities in central Mexico: Morelia and Mexico City. Our analysis in Mexico City and Morelia is based on a risk matrix using the horizontal subsidence gradient from a Persistent Scatterer InSAR (Morelia) and SqueeSAR (Mexico City) analysis and 2010 census population distribution data from Mexico's National Institute of Statistics and Geography. Defining subsidence induced surface faulting vulnerability within these urbanized areas is best determined using both magnitude and horizontal subsidence gradient. Our Morelia analysis (597,000 inhabitants with localized subsidence rates up to 80 mm/yr) shows that 7% of the urbanized area is under a high to very high risk level, and 14% of its population (11.7% and 2.3% respectively) lives within these areas. In the case of the Mexico City (15'490,000 inhabitants for the Mexico city Metropolitan area included within our map, and up to 370 mm/yr subsidence rate) our risk map shows that 13.5% of the urbanized area is under a high to very high risk level, and 26.2% of its population (22.1% and 4.4% respectively) lives within these areas.

The Future of Urbanization: Facing the Ecological and Economic Constraints. Worldwatch Paper 77.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Brown, Lester R.; Jacobson, Jodi L.

Aside from the growth of world population itself, urbanization is the dominant demographic trend of the late twentieth century. The number of people living in cities increased from six hundred million in 1950 to over two billion in 1986. If this growth continues unabated, more than half of humanity will reside in urban areas shortly after the turn…

Monitoring urban growth and detection of land use with GIS and remote sensing: a case study of the Kyrenia region

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kara, Can; Akçit, Nuhcan

2016-08-01

Land-cover change is considered one of the central components in current strategies for managing natural resources and monitoring environmental changes. It is important to manage land resources in a sustainable manner which targets at compacting and consolidating urban development. From 2005 to 2015,urban growth in Kyrenia has been quite dramatic, showing a wide and scattered pattern, lacking proper plan. As a result of this unplanned/unorganized expansion, agricultural areas, vegetation and water bodies have been lost in the region. Therefore, it has become a necessity to analyze the results of this urban growth and compare the losses between land-cover changes. With this goal in mind, a case study of Kyrenia region has been carried out using a supervised image classification method and Landsat TM images acquired in 2005 and 2015 to map and extract land-cover changes. This paper tries to assess urban-growth changes detected in the region by using Remote Sensing and GIS. The study monitors the changes between different land cover types. Also, it shows the urban occupation of primary soil loss and the losses in forest areas, open areas, etc.

Screening microalgae isolated from urban storm- and wastewater systems as feedstock for biofuel.

PubMed

Massimi, Rebecca; Kirkwood, Andrea E

2016-01-01

Exploiting microalgae as feedstock for biofuel production is a growing field of research and application, but there remain challenges related to industrial viability and economic sustainability. A solution to the water requirements of industrial-scale production is the use of wastewater as a growth medium. Considering the variable quality and contaminant loads of wastewater, algal feedstock would need to have broad tolerance and resilience to fluctuating wastewater conditions during growth. As a first step in targeting strains for growth in wastewater, our study isolated microalgae from wastewater habitats, including urban stormwater-ponds and a municipal wastewater-treatment system, to assess growth, fatty acids and metal tolerance under standardized conditions. Stormwater ponds in particular have widely fluctuating conditions and metal loads, so microalgae from this type of environment may have desirable traits for growth in wastewater. Forty-three algal strains were isolated in total, including several strains from natural habitats. All strains, with the exception of one cyanobacterial strain, are members of the Chlorophyta, including several taxa commonly targeted for biofuel production. Isolates were identified using taxonomic and 18S rRNA sequence methods, and the fastest growing strains with ideal fatty acid profiles for biodiesel production included Scenedesmus and Desmodesmus species (Growth rate (d(-1)) > 1). All isolates in a small, but diverse taxonomic group of test-strains were tolerant of copper at wastewater-relevant concentrations. Overall, more than half of the isolated strains, particularly those from stormwater ponds, show promise as candidates for biofuel feedstock.

Regional cities in Australia's changing urban system.

PubMed

Beer, A

1995-01-01

"There is evidence that Australia's urban system is changing. Since the mid-1970s there has been growth in the number and total population of regional cities. It is argued that this growth is a product of restructuring and the de-regulation of the Australian economy. Regional cities have become more prominent in the national economy as centres for manufacturing, as a consequence of the growth of tourism and recreation industries, through the decline in some areas of smaller urban settlements and as a result of new mining developments." excerpt

Urbanization in contemporary Arab Gulf states.

PubMed

Qutub, I Y

1983-01-01

Urbanization in the Arab Gulf states of Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, and the United Arab Emirates is analyzed. Topics discussed include the historical background to urbanization; current demographic trends in the region; urban characteristics and growth; socioeconomic factors influencing urbanization, with an emphasis on labor force structure; future urban strategy; and the need for urban research.

Effects of endogenous factors on regional land-use carbon emissions based on the Grossman decomposition model: a case study of Zhejiang Province, China.

PubMed

Wu, Cifang; Li, Guan; Yue, Wenze; Lu, Rucheng; Lu, Zhangwei; You, Heyuan

2015-02-01

The impact of land-use change on greenhouse gas emissions has become a core issue in current studies on global change and carbon cycle. However, a comprehensive evaluation of the effects of land-use changes on carbon emissions is very necessary. This paper attempted to apply the Grossman decomposition model to estimate the scale, structural, and management effects of land-use carbon emissions based on final energy consumption by establishing the relationship between the types of land use and carbon emissions in energy consumption. It was shown that land-use carbon emissions increase from 169.5624 million tons in 2000 to 637.0984 million tons in 2010, with an annual average growth rate of 14.15%. Meanwhile, land-use carbon intensity increased from 17.59 t/ha in 2000 to 64.42 t/ha in 2010, with an average annual growth rate of 13.86%. The results indicated that rapid industrialization and urbanization in Zhejiang Province promptly increased urban land and industrial land, which consequently affected land-use extensive emissions. The structural and management effects did not mitigate land-use carbon emissions. By contrast, both factors evidently affected the growth of carbon emissions because of the rigid demands of energy-intensive land-use types and the absence of land management. Results called for the policy implications of optimizing land-use structures and strengthening land-use management.

Effects of Endogenous Factors on Regional Land-Use Carbon Emissions Based on the Grossman Decomposition Model: A Case Study of Zhejiang Province, China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wu, Cifang; Li, Guan; Yue, Wenze; Lu, Rucheng; Lu, Zhangwei; You, Heyuan

2015-02-01

The impact of land-use change on greenhouse gas emissions has become a core issue in current studies on global change and carbon cycle. However, a comprehensive evaluation of the effects of land-use changes on carbon emissions is very necessary. This paper attempted to apply the Grossman decomposition model to estimate the scale, structural, and management effects of land-use carbon emissions based on final energy consumption by establishing the relationship between the types of land use and carbon emissions in energy consumption. It was shown that land-use carbon emissions increase from 169.5624 million tons in 2000 to 637.0984 million tons in 2010, with an annual average growth rate of 14.15 %. Meanwhile, land-use carbon intensity increased from 17.59 t/ha in 2000 to 64.42 t/ha in 2010, with an average annual growth rate of 13.86 %. The results indicated that rapid industrialization and urbanization in Zhejiang Province promptly increased urban land and industrial land, which consequently affected land-use extensive emissions. The structural and management effects did not mitigate land-use carbon emissions. By contrast, both factors evidently affected the growth of carbon emissions because of the rigid demands of energy-intensive land-use types and the absence of land management. Results called for the policy implications of optimizing land-use structures and strengthening land-use management.

Third-world development: urbanizing for the future.

PubMed

Mcilwaine, C

1997-01-01

This article reviews some issues reflected in the 1996 UN Habitat II agenda and recent research on urbanization. The themes of the 1996 Habitat conference were urban development, urban poverty, and governance, civil society, and social capital. It is expected that over 50% of total world population will live in cities in the year 2000. Cities are viewed both as engines of economic growth and centers of severe economic, environmental, and social problems. There is some disagreement about whether cities are rational economic structures or what the World Bank's urban agenda is and its relationship with macroeconomic policy. Discussions of global urban issues are criticized for their neglect of issues of equity and poverty, cultural diversity, and identity and representation. Habitat II also stressed urban sustainability. There is growing recognition that urban management involves more than the "Brown Agenda" of environmental and physical aspects of urban growth. Recent studies identify how politics and power affect people's access to basic urban services. Urban economic activity can also contribute to environmental problems. Urban growth affects the provision of health services. Although there is not a consensus on the role of cities in expanding economic and social development and the best management practices, there is sufficient evidence to indicate that urban processes are varied throughout the developing world. The links between urban and rural areas differentiate cities and expose the need to understand the role of intermediate urban areas surrounding and between larger cities. Poverty has become increasingly urbanized, but the extent of poverty is unknown. Habitat II was an unprecedented effort to engage nongovernment groups, local government staff, trade unions, and the private sector and to emphasize community participation. Networks of trust and reciprocity are key to solving poverty, inequality, and disempowerment problems.

Street Level Hydrology: An Urban Application of the WRF-Hydro Framework in Denver, Colorado

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Read, L.; Hogue, T. S.; Salas, F. R.; Gochis, D.

2015-12-01

Urban flood modeling at the watershed scale carries unique challenges in routing complexity, data resolution, social and political issues, and land surface - infrastructure interactions. The ability to accurately trace and predict the flow of water through the urban landscape enables better emergency response management, floodplain mapping, and data for future urban infrastructure planning and development. These services are of growing importance as urban population is expected to continue increasing by 1.84% per year for the next 25 years, increasing the vulnerability of urban regions to damages and loss of life from floods. Although a range of watershed-scale models have been applied in specific urban areas to examine these issues, there is a trend towards national scale hydrologic modeling enabled by supercomputing resources to understand larger system-wide hydrologic impacts and feedbacks. As such it is important to address how urban landscapes can be represented in large scale modeling processes. The current project investigates how coupling terrain and infrastructure routing can improve flow prediction and flooding events over the urban landscape. We utilize the WRF-Hydro modeling framework and a high-resolution terrain routing grid with the goal of compiling standard data needs necessary for fine scale urban modeling and dynamic flood forecasting in the urban setting. The city of Denver is selected as a case study, as it has experienced several large flooding events in the last five years and has an urban annual population growth rate of 1.5%, one of the highest in the U.S. Our work highlights the hydro-informatic challenges associated with linking channel networks and drainage infrastructure in an urban area using the WRF-Hydro modeling framework and high resolution urban models for short-term flood prediction.

Mapping Impact of Urbanization in the Continental U.S. from 2001-2020

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Bounoua, Lahouari; Nigro, Joseph; Zhang, Ping; Thome, Kurtis

2016-01-01

Data fusion, from Landsat and MODIS, was used to characterize US buildup and to derive a plausible 2020 impervious surface area (ISA) projection based on observed rates of ISA change as a function of population from 2006 to 2011. The analysis shows that urbanization in the U.S. implicitly includes a cultural character whereby depending on the region, cities are either built horizontally with large ISA per capita or vertically with a minimal spatial footprint. This cultural character can also be forced by land availability, topography and inland water. In other regions, cities seem to have adapted to their population growth and adjusted their ISA use per capita.

Examining Urban Expansion Using Multi-Temporal Landsat Imagery: a Case Study of the Montreal Census Metropolitan Area from 1975 TO 2015, Canada

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ma, Lingfei; Zhao, He; Li, Jonathan

2016-06-01

Urban expansion, particularly the movement of residential and commercial land use to sub-urban areas in metropolitan areas, has been considered as a significant signal of regional economic development. In 1970s, the economic centre of Canada moved from Montreal to Toronto. Since some previous research have been focused on the urbanization process in Greater Toronto Area (GTA), it is significant to conduct research in its counterpart. This study evaluates urban expansion process in Montréal census metropolitan area (CMA), Canada, between 1975 and 2015 using satellite images and socio-economic data. Spatial and temporal dynamic information of urbanization process was quantified using Landsat imagery, supervised classification algorithms and the post-classification change detection technique. Accuracy of the Landsat-derived land use classification map ranged from 80% to 97%. The results indicated that continuous growth of built-up areas in the CMA over the study period resulted in a decrease in the area of cultivated land and vegetation. The results showed that urban areas expanded 442 km2 both along major river systems and lakeshores, as well as expanded from urban centres to surrounded areas. The analysis revealed that urban expansion has been largely driven by population growth and economic development. Consequently, the urban expansion maps produced in this research can assist decision-makers to promote sustainable urban development, and forecast potential changes in urbanization growth patterns.

Urbanization in 21st century.

PubMed

Altarejos, R G

1990-01-01

Due to a combination of rapid population growth and high levels of rural-urban migration, overcrowding will be common in many cities around the world in the 21st century. Currently at 5.3 billion, the global population is expected to increase to 6 billion by the year 2000, and to 9 billion by 2025. Experts predict that urban centers will bear the brunt of the population growth. Rural areas have seen declines in the standard of living, partly due to natural disasters, civil war, and economic policies favoring urban centers. In search of jobs, better access to education, and health services, rural populations will flock to cities. But the rapid growth of cities will inevitably lead to the creation of slums, which will hamper urban development. Urban demographers predict that by the end of the century, 1/2 of the world's population will be urban, and 1/5 of these people will be concentrated in "mega cities," populations of 4 million or more. International migration will play a significant role, as people cross borders in search of opportunity. But contrary to the traditional model of urban growth, much of it will take place in developing countries. According to a 1985 study, developed nations had an urbanization level of 71%, compared to 31% in developing countries. However, experts calculate that by 2025, these levels will practically even out, with an urbanization level of 74% for developing countries and 77% for developed countries. By 2025, 25 cities will have populations of over 9 million, including Mexico City (25.8), Sao Paulo (24.0), Tokyo (20.2), Calcutta (16.5), Greater Bombay (16.0), and New York (15.8).

Dynamic Urban Growth Models

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

1978-12-01

In the report the concept of 'order by fluctuation,' that has appeared recently in physico-chemical and biological systems, is applied to the description of urban growth. It is shown that fluctuations play a vital role in the evolutionary process of ...

Dynamic Urban Growth Models

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

1979-12-01

In the report the concept of 'order by fluctuation,' that has appeared recently in physico-chemical and biological systems, is applied to the description of urban growth. It is shown that fluctuations play a vital role in the evolutionary process of ...

Impulsivity Trajectories and Gambling in Adolescence among Urban Male Youth

PubMed Central

Liu, Weiwei; Lee, Grace P.; Goldweber, Asha; Petras, Hanno; Storr, Carla L.; Ialongo, Nicholas S.; Martins, Silvia S.

2012-01-01

Aim Building on the recent emerging literature on the impulsivity trajectory-gambling association, this study investigated the association between developmental trajectories of teacher-rated impulsivity in early adolescence (ages 11–15) and subsequent gambling and gambling problems (i.e. at-risk and problem gambling) by age 19. Design Prospective cohort design. Setting Urban communities in Baltimore, Maryland. Participants The sample consists of 310 predominately minority (87%) and low SES (70%) males followed from first grade to late adolescence. Measurements Impulsivity was measured using teacher ratings of classroom behavior. Self-reported gambling behavior was assessed using the South Oaks Gambling Screen-Revised for Adolescents (SOGS-RA). Findings Results from a conventional growth model suggest the intercept of the impulsivity development (as measured by the repeated assessments of impulsivity across the entire developmental period) was significantly associated with gambling. Results from a general growth mixture model evidenced two distinct trajectories: a high impulsivity trajectory (41% the sample) and a low impulsivity trajectory (59% of the sample). Despite its non-significant association with any gambling, heterogeneity in impulsivity development was significantly associated with gambling problems. Specifically, being in the high impulsivity trajectory doubled the odds of meeting criteria for at-risk or problem gambling (OR= 2.09[1.02, 4.27]) and tripled the odds of meeting criteria for problem gambling (OR=2.84[1.02, 7.91]) Conclusions Development in impulsivity is strongly associated with problem/at-risk gambling in adolescence among urban male youth. Findings highlight the importance of distinguishing gambling problems from any gambling when evaluating programs aimed at reducing youth gambling problems through reducing impulsivity. PMID:23130867

Urbanization, roads, and rural population change in the Ecuadorian Andes.

PubMed

Rudel, T K; Richards, S

1990-01-01

"Like many developing countries Ecuador has experienced extensive ubanization in the past twenty-five years as well as a shift in the pattern of rural population change between the 1960s and 1970s. Rural places with difficult access to cities (without roads and located far from cities) gained population during the 1960s but lost population during the 1970s. Rural places with easy access to cities (i.e., located near cities or on all-weather roads) continued to gain population during the 1970s. The explanation for the differential ability of rural places to retain their population during the 1970s focuses on increases in labor circulation by peasants and growth in the numbers of small, urban-oriented manufacturing and agricultural enterprises in accessible rural areas. The article concludes with a discussion on the implications of these findings for policies to reduce rates of rural-urban migration." excerpt

Strategies for providing healthcare services to street-dwellers in Dhaka city: evidence from an operations research.

PubMed

Uddin, Jasim; Koehlmoos, Tracey P; Saha, Nirod C; Islam, Ziaul; Khan, Iqbal A; Quaiyum, M A

2012-06-13

In almost every major urban city, thousands of people live in overcrowded slums, streets, or other public places without any health services. Bangladesh has experienced one of the highest rates of urban population growth in the last three decades compared to the national population growth rate. The numbers of the urban poor and street-dwellers are likely to increase at least in proportion to the overall population growth of the country. The street-dwellers in Bangladesh are extremely vulnerable in terms of their health needs and healthcare-seeking behaviours. In Bangladesh, there is no health service-delivery mechanism targeting this marginalized group of people. This study, therefore, assessed the effectiveness of two models to provide primary healthcare (PHC) services to street-dwellers. This study of experimental pre-post design tested two models, such as static clinic and satellite clinics, for providing PHC services to street-dwellers in the evening through paramedics in Dhaka city during May 2009-April 2010. Both quantitative and qualitative techniques were used for collecting data. Data were analyzed comparing before and after the implementation of the clinics for the assessment of selected health and family-planning indicators using the statistical t-test. Services received from the model l and model 2 clinics were also compared by calculating the absolute difference to determine the relative effectiveness of one model over another. The use of healthcare services by the street-dwellers increased at endline compared to baseline in both the model clinic areas, and the difference was highly significant (p < 0.001). Institutional delivery among the female street-dwellers increased at endline compared to baseline in both the clinic areas. The use of family-planning methods among females also significantly (p < 0.001) increased at endline compared to baseline in both the areas. As the findings of the study showed the promise of this approach, the strategies could be implemented in all other cities of Bangladesh and in other countries which encounter similar problems.

Urbanization in Peru. An International Urbanization Survey Report to the Ford Foundation.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Robin, John P.; Terzo, Frederick C.

This survey paper will deal primarily with the following two issues: (1) How to cope with the growth of the metropolitan Lima area, and the current and future stresses on its social and physical environment, and (2) How to develop, if it is possible and desirable to do so, other urban growth poles in the country which will relieve the…

Population Growth in New Hampshire during the Nineteenth and Twentieth Centuries. Studies in New England Geography, Number 1.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Hobart, Christine L.

This paper traces the shifts in New Hampshire's state and county population during the nineteenth and twentieth centuries, focusing on the growth of urban centers and industry. From 1790 to 1840 most of New Hampshire's population growth was agricultural despite the beginnings of industrialization and urbanization. These processes greatly…

[Demographic profile of Venezuela].

PubMed

Quintero, I

1984-04-01

Sources of demographic data for Venezuela include 11 population censuses conducted between 1873-1981, birth and death registration statistics, and the household sample survey. The average annual rate of population growth increase from 2.8% between 1920-40 to 3-4% thereafter. The population at the 1961 census was 7.52 million. According to preliminary data from the 1981 census, the population of 14.57 million is growing at an annual rate of 2.8%. 41.2% of the population is under 15 years old, implying a huge demand for educational and health services, housing and employment. The dependency rate in 1980 was 81.3% for the country as a whole, 100.4% in rural areas, and 76.0% in urban areas. The young age structure means that the population will continue to grow even if natality rates decline. The crude natality rate was estimated at 47.3/1000 for 1950-55, 36.0 for 1970-75, and 32.9 for 1980-85. Some rural areas still have natality rates of over 47/1000. The total fertility rate declined from 6.5 in 1950-55 to 4.1 in 1980-85. The decline in the natality rate reflects improving quality of life, availability of family planning services, urbanization, and access of women to productive activities and educational centers. The mortality rate was 12.3/1000 in 1950-55, 9.1 in 1960-65, in 1970-75, and has been estimated at 5.5 for 1980-85. Some rural areas have mortality rates of 8.1. The infant mortality rate was 50.2/1000 in 1971 and 34.3 in 1980. Life expectancy at birth is about 69 years. During the 1920s, Venezuela unerwent expansion in infrastructure and technological utilization, generating rapid urbanization. 39.2% of the population was urban in 1941, compared to 78.8% in 1980. The significance of urbanization in Venezuela is due to the rapidity as well as the diffusion of the process. The household sample survey for the 2nd half of 1980 indicated a total of 8.16 million employed and an activity rate of 32.1% overall, 46.4% for males and 17.7% for females. The demographic situation of Venezuela does not appear alarming if viewed in isolation, but the deficit of some 500,000 housing units, the million unemployed, the importation of about 75% of the country's food, the stagnation of agriculture, the lower than subsistence level of about 40% of incomes, and the lack of population policies suggest that the 24.7 million inhabitants projected for 2000 will pose a considerable challenge to the nation.

CO2 dispersion modelling over Paris region within the CO2-MEGAPARIS project

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lac, C.; Donnelly, R. P.; Masson, V.; Pal, S.; Donier, S.; Queguiner, S.; Tanguy, G.; Ammoura, L.; Xueref-Remy, I.

2012-10-01

Accurate simulation of the spatial and temporal variability of tracer mixing ratios over urban areas is challenging, but essential in order to utilize CO2 measurements in an atmospheric inverse framework to better estimate regional CO2 fluxes. This study investigates the ability of a high-resolution model to simulate meteorological and CO2 fields around Paris agglomeration, during the March field campaign of the CO2-MEGAPARIS project. The mesoscale atmospheric model Meso-NH, running at 2 km horizontal resolution, is coupled with the Town-Energy Balance (TEB) urban canopy scheme and with the Interactions between Soil, Biosphere and Atmosphere CO2-reactive (ISBA-A-gs) surface scheme, allowing a full interaction of CO2 between the surface and the atmosphere. Statistical scores show a good representation of the Urban Heat Island (UHI) and urban-rural contrasts. Boundary layer heights (BLH) at urban, sub-urban and rural sites are well captured, especially the onset time of the BLH increase and its growth rate in the morning, that are essential for tall tower CO2 observatories. Only nocturnal BLH at sub-urban sites are slightly underestimated a few nights, with a bias less than 50 m. At Eiffel tower, the observed spikes of CO2 maxima occur every morning exactly at the time at which the Atmospheric Boundary Layer (ABL) growth reaches the measurement height. The timing of the CO2 cycle is well captured by the model, with only small biases on CO2 concentrations, mainly linked to the misrepresentation of anthropogenic emissions, as the Eiffel site is at the heart of trafic emission sources. At sub-urban ground stations, CO2 measurements exhibit maxima at the beginning and at the end of each night, when the ABL is fully contracted, with a very strong spatio-temporal variability. The CO2 cycle at these sites is generally well reproduced by the model, even if some biases on the nocturnal maxima appear in the Paris plume parly due to small errors on the vertical transport, or in the vicinity of airports due to small errors on the horizontal transport (wind direction). A sensitivity test without urban parameterisation removes UHI and underpredicts nighttime BLH over urban and sub-urban sites, leading to large overestimation of nocturnal CO2 concentration at the sub-urban sites. The agreement of daytime and nighttime BLH and CO2 predictions of the reference simulation over Paris agglomeration demonstrates the potential of using the meso-scale system on urban and sub-urban area in the context of inverse modelling.

Application of LANDSAT data to the study of urban development in Brasilia

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Parada, N. D. J. (Principal Investigator); Deoliveira, M. D. L. N.; Foresti, C.; Niero, M.; Parreira, E. M. D. M. F.

1984-01-01

The urban growth of Brasilia within the last ten years is analyzed with special emphasis on the utilization of remote sensing orbital data and automatic image processing. The urban spatial structure and the monitoring of its temporal changes were examined in a whole and dynamic way by the utilization of MSS-LANDSAT images for June (1973, 1978 and 1983). In order to aid data interpretation, a registration algorithm implemented in the Interactive Multispectral Image Analysis System (IMAGE-100) was utilized aiming at the overlap of multitemporal images. The utilization of suitable digital filters, combined with the images overlap, allowed a rapid identification of areas of possible urban growth and oriented the field work. The results obtained in this work permitted an evaluation of the urban growth of Brasilia, taking as reference the proposal stated for the construction of the city in the Pilot Plan elaborated by Lucio Costa.

Urban growth and landscape connectivity threats assessment at Saguaro National Park, Arizona, USA

USGS Publications Warehouse

Perkl, Ryan; Norman, Laura M.; Mitchell, David; Feller, Mark R.; Smith, Garrett; Wilson, Natalie R.

2018-01-01

Urban and exurban expansion results in habitat and biodiversity loss globally. We hypothesize that a coupled-model approach could connect urban planning for future cities with landscape ecology to consider wildland habitat connectivity. Our work combines urban growth simulations with models of wildlife corridors to examine how species will be impacted by development to test this hypothesis. We leverage a land use change model (SLEUTH) with structural and functional landscape-connectivity modeling techniques to ascertain the spatial extent and locations of connectivity related threats to a national park in southern Arizona, USA, and describe how protected areas might be impacted by urban expansion. Results of projected growth significantly altered structural connectivity (80%) when compared to current (baseline) corridor conditions. Moreover, projected growth impacted functional connectivity differently amongst species, indicating resilience of some species and near-complete displacement of others. We propose that implementing a geospatial-design-based model will allow for a better understanding of the impacts management decisions have on wildlife populations. The application provides the potential to understand both human and environmental impacts of land-system dynamics, critical for long-term sustainability.

Estimating effects of improved drinking water and sanitation on cholera.

PubMed

Leidner, Andrew J; Adusumilli, Naveen C

2013-12-01

Demand for adequate provision of drinking-water and sanitation facilities to promote public health and economic growth is increasing in the rapidly urbanizing countries of the developing world. With a panel of data on Asia and Africa from 1990 to 2008, associations are estimated between the occurrence of cholera outbreaks, the case rates in given outbreaks, the mortality rates associated with cholera and two disease control mechanisms, drinking-water and sanitation services. A statistically significant and negative effect is found between drinking-water services and both cholera case rates as well as cholera-related mortality rates. A relatively weak statistical relationship is found between the occurrence of cholera outbreaks and sanitation services.

Sidewalk data in King County's urban growth boundary.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2013-06-01

This report describes the development of geospatial sidewalk data for the King County Urban : Growth Area. Prior to the development of this data set, sidewalk data in King County were limited to : select jurisdictions and existed in multiple, sometim...

How Did Urban Land Expand in China between 1992 and 2015? A Multi-Scale Landscape Analysis

PubMed Central

Xu, Min; He, Chunyang; Liu, Zhifeng; Dou, Yinyin

2016-01-01

Effective and timely quantification of the spatiotemporal pattern of urban expansion in China is important for the assessment of its environmental effects. However, the dynamics of the most recent urban expansions in China since 2012 have not yet been adequately explained due to a lack of current information. In this paper, our objective was to quantify spatiotemporal patterns of urban expansion in China between 1992 and 2015. First, we extracted information on urban expansion in China between 1992 and 2015 by integrating nighttime light data, vegetation index data, and land surface temperature data. Then we analyzed the spatiotemporal patterns of urban expansion at the national and regional scales, as well as at that of urban agglomerations. We found that China experienced a rapid and large-scale process of urban expansion between 1992 and 2015, with urban land increasing from 1.22 × 104 km2 to 7.29 × 104 km2, increasing in size nearly fivefold and with an average annual growth rate of 8.10%, almost 2.5 times as rapid as the global average. We also found that urban land in China expanded mainly by occupying 3.31 × 104 km2 of cropland, which comprised 54.67% of the total area of expanded urban land. Among the three modes of growth—infilling, edge expansion, and leapfrog—edge expansion was the main cause of cropland loss. Cropland loss resulting from edge expansion of urban land totalled 2.51 × 104 km2, accounting for over 75% of total cropland loss. We suggest that effective future management with respect to edge expansion of urban land is needed to protect cropland in China. PMID:27144589

[Live-birth rates by age of mother and total fertility rates by urban and rural areas].

PubMed

Kaneko, T; Shiraishi, N; Kasahara, R

1983-07-01

Live birth rates by age of mother and total fertility rates by urban and rural areas in Japan are generally decreasing. Japanese women ages 15-49 were studied. Graphs presenting fertility rates according to age in 1975 and 1980 in urban and rural areas show that fertility rates are considerably higher in rural areas than in urban centers (by as much as 20% for the 25-29 age group). In a table showing urban/rural total fertility rates and distributions among prefectures in 1975 and 1980, the prefecture with the highest total fertility rate (2.88495 in 1975 and 2.37804 in 1980) is Okinawa and the lowest total fertility rate is found in Tokyo (1.62287 in 1975 and 1.43693 in 1980). The average total fertility rate in 1980 was 1.82849; in urban centers it was 1.78919 and rural areas, 1.92105. Finally, a comparison of total fertility rates by urban and rural areas and by age shows that in 1975 the rural fertility rate was .16 higher than that of urban areas, and that in 1980 all fertility rates (total, urban, and rural) were lower, with the rural fertility rate decreasing at the same rate as did the urban fertility rate in 1975. It is interesting to note that between 1975-1980 birth rates have been decreasing in both urban and rural areas in all age groups except for the 30-34 year old group which in urban centers was higher in 1980 than in rural areas. This can be attributed to the recent trend among Japanese women of delaying childbirth.

[Food and population: study of three countries].

PubMed

1988-12-01

In 1985, despite a nearly 25% worldwide surplus of cereals, more than 700 million poor people had insufficient food and some 17 million children died of malnutrition or related causes. 16% of the developing world's population is undernourished. Rapid population growth is a major reason for the world's hunger. Large families exhaust the resources of many urban couples and rural couples with little land. Closely spaced pregnancies deplete the nutritional resources of the mother and lead to low birth weight babies and inadequate lactation. Population growth in already densely populated countries reduces the land available for each family, inevitably contributing to poverty and rural malnutrition. Unemployment and underemployment reach alarming proportions in the city, where the combination of high fertility rates and migration from the countryside have produced growth twice that of the world population as a whole. Few developing countries have been able to generate sufficient investment to create new jobs for all seeking them. Unstable governments attempt to pacify urban unrest by subsidizing food prices and concentrating social and economic investments in the cities, causing further deterioration in rural conditions. Today more than 60 countries have food deficits, although not all are suffering. India, Kenya, and Mexico are 3 countries that have had some success in balancing population growth and food production, but each still has undernourished population sectors because of economic policies that fail to provide sufficient help to their poor and because of implacable population growth. Ending malnutrition in the 3 countries will require reducing the cost of food for households and increasing their incomes, but both objectives are made more difficult by rapid population growth. As a result of the green revolution and other factors, food production in India has tripled since 1950, but population has almost doubled in the same years. With rapid population growth, per capita agricultural productivity increased much more slowly than production. Kenya has enjoyed impressive economic growth since independence, but its rate of population growth of 4.2%/year, the highest in the world, has meant that per capita income increases have been modest. Average nutritional status has declined in Kenya since 1968. The rate of population growth in Mexico has declined to 2.3-2.6%/year in 1986 from the 3.5% of 1974, but population growth will be rapid for decades to come because of the young age structure. Agricultural production has increased but has not kept pace with population growth. Kenya, India, and Mexico have the human and natural resources to make further economic gains in the coming decades. The difficulty of feeding their populations adequately will increase to the extent that they fail to curb their rapid population increase.

Diabetes and cardiometabolic risk factors in Cambodia: Results from two screening studies.

PubMed

Wagner, Julie; Naranjo, Diana; Khun, Touch; Seng, Serey; Horn, Ien S; Suttiratana, Sakinah C; Keuky, Lim

2018-02-01

Despite growing attention to diabetes throughout Asia, data from Southeast Asia are limited. This article reports rates of diabetes, hypertension, and obesity in Cambodia. Two studies were conducted across different regions of Cambodia: (i) a 2012 screening study across urban, semi-urban, and rural areas that used point-of-care capillary glucose for determination of diabetes (n = 13 997); and (ii) a 2005 epidemiological study with random selection from two main urban areas that used oral glucose tolerance tests for determination of diabetes (n = 1863). Blood pressure and anthropometrics were also measured. In the screening study, rates of diabetes were significantly higher in urban than rural sites, with intermediate rates in semi-urban areas. There was a significant dose-response effect for urbanicity on overweight, obesity, and waist:hip ratio, with higher rates for urban versus semi-urban and for semi-urban versus rural locales. Rural sites had the lowest rates of hypertension, followed by urban and semi-urban sites. Among people who screened positive for diabetes, there was a dose-response effect for urbanicity on undiagnosed diabetes; rates of previously undiagnosed diabetes were lowest in urban (51%), followed by semi-urban (55%) and rural (67%) locales. Rural participants reported the highest rates of smoking and alcohol use. In the urban epidemiological study, prevalence rates of diabetes and impaired glucose tolerance were approximately 10%, indicating a prevalence of total glucose intolerance of approximately 20%. In Cambodia, diabetes rates are high among urban residents and undiagnosed diabetes is highest among rural residents. A country-wide public health response is urgently needed; as development continues, rates of diabetes are expected to rise. © 2017 Ruijin Hospital, Shanghai Jiaotong University School of Medicine and John Wiley & Sons Australia, Ltd.

Urban and regional planning proposal no. Y-10-066-001

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hannah, J. W.; Thomas, G. L.; Esparza, F. (Principal Investigator)

1973-01-01

The author has identified the following significant results. An investigation is underway to determine the applicability of ERTS-1 data to urban and regional planning problems, using data for East Central Florida. Small scale land use mapping is feasible. Urban and commercial areas are sufficiently distinguishable that ERTS-1 appears to be a useful tool for monitoring urban and commercial growth. Development patterns of cities, growth patterns of cities, and distribution and changes in certain sectors within cities can be analyzed effectively. Digital analysis methods are proving useful.

Integrated remote sensing for multi-temporal analysis of urban land cover-climate interactions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Savastru, Dan M.; Zoran, Maria A.; Savastru, Roxana S.

2016-08-01

Climate change is considered to be the biggest environmental threat in the future in the South- Eastern part of Europe. In frame of predicted global warming, urban climate is an important issue in scientific research. Surface energy processes have an essential role in urban weather, climate and hydrosphere cycles, as well in urban heat redistribution. This paper investigated the influences of urban growth on thermal environment in relationship with other biophysical variables in Bucharest metropolitan area of Romania. Remote sensing data from Landsat TM/ETM+ and time series MODIS Terra/Aqua sensors have been used to assess urban land cover- climate interactions over period between 2000 and 2015 years. Vegetation abundances and percent impervious surfaces were derived by means of linear spectral mixture model, and a method for effectively enhancing impervious surface has been developed to accurately examine the urban growth. The land surface temperature (Ts), a key parameter for urban thermal characteristics analysis, was also analyzed in relation with the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) at city level. Based on these parameters, the urban growth, and urban heat island effect (UHI) and the relationships of Ts to other biophysical parameters have been analyzed. The correlation analyses revealed that, at the pixel-scale, Ts possessed a strong positive correlation with percent impervious surfaces and negative correlation with vegetation abundances at the regional scale, respectively. This analysis provided an integrated research scheme and the findings can be very useful for urban ecosystem modeling.

Parental Investments in Schooling: The Roles of Gender and Resources in Urban Brazil. Labor and Population Program Working Paper Series 96-02.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Thomas, Duncan; And Others

This study examines the rate of educational attainment of women in Brazil. There have been dramatic increases in women's educational attainment, where today women are better educated than men. The study explores the importance of education and income of mothers and fathers in explaining the growth that has occurred. Maternal education has a bigger…

Estimating the effects of 17α-ethinylestradiol on stochastic population growth rate of fathead minnows: a population synthesis of empirically derived vital rates.

PubMed

Schwindt, Adam R; Winkelman, Dana L

2016-09-01

Urban freshwater streams in arid climates are wastewater effluent dominated ecosystems particularly impacted by bioactive chemicals including steroid estrogens that disrupt vertebrate reproduction. However, more understanding of the population and ecological consequences of exposure to wastewater effluent is needed. We used empirically derived vital rate estimates from a mesocosm study to develop a stochastic stage-structured population model and evaluated the effect of 17α-ethinylestradiol (EE2), the estrogen in human contraceptive pills, on fathead minnow Pimephales promelas stochastic population growth rate. Tested EE2 concentrations ranged from 3.2 to 10.9 ng L(-1) and produced stochastic population growth rates (λ S ) below 1 at the lowest concentration, indicating potential for population decline. Declines in λ S compared to controls were evident in treatments that were lethal to adult males despite statistically insignificant effects on egg production and juvenile recruitment. In fact, results indicated that λ S was most sensitive to the survival of juveniles and female egg production. More broadly, our results document that population model results may differ even when empirically derived estimates of vital rates are similar among experimental treatments, and demonstrate how population models integrate and project the effects of stressors throughout the life cycle. Thus, stochastic population models can more effectively evaluate the ecological consequences of experimentally derived vital rates.

Using social-emotional and character development to improve academic outcomes: a matched-pair, cluster-randomized controlled trial in low-income, urban schools

PubMed Central

Lewis, Kendra M.; DuBois, David L.; Acock, Alan; Vuchinich, Samuel; Silverthorn, Naida; Snyder, Frank J.; Day, Joseph; Ji, Peter; Flay, Brian R.

2013-01-01

BACKGROUND School-based social-emotional and character development (SECD) programs can influence not only SECD, but also academic-related outcomes. This study evaluated the impact of one SECD program, Positive Action (PA), on educational outcomes among low-income, urban youth. METHODS The longitudinal study used a matched-pair, cluster-randomized controlled design. Student-reported disaffection with learning and academic grades, and teacher ratings of academic ability and motivation were assessed for a cohort followed from grades 3 to 8. Aggregate school records were used to assess standardized test performance (for entire school, cohort, and demographic subgroups) and absenteeism (entire school). Multilevel growth-curve analyses tested program effects. RESULTS PA significantly improved growth in academic motivation and mitigated disaffection with learning. There was a positive impact of PA on absenteeism and marginally significant impact on math performance of all students. There were favorable program effects on reading for African American boys and cohort students transitioning between grades 7 and 8, and on math for girls and low-income students. CONCLUSIONS A school-based SECD program was found to influence academic outcomes among students living in low-income, urban communities. Future research should examine mechanisms by which changes in SECD influence changes in academic outcomes. PMID:24138347

Using social-emotional and character development to improve academic outcomes: a matched-pair, cluster-randomized controlled trial in low-income, urban schools.

PubMed

Bavarian, Niloofar; Lewis, Kendra M; Dubois, David L; Acock, Alan; Vuchinich, Samuel; Silverthorn, Naida; Snyder, Frank J; Day, Joseph; Ji, Peter; Flay, Brian R

2013-11-01

School-based social-emotional and character development (SECD) programs can influence not only SECD but also academic-related outcomes. This study evaluated the impact of one SECD program, Positive Action (PA), on educational outcomes among low-income, urban youth. The longitudinal study used a matched-pair, cluster-randomized controlled design. Student-reported disaffection with learning and academic grades, and teacher ratings of academic ability and motivation were assessed for a cohort followed from grades 3 to 8. Aggregate school records were used to assess standardized test performance (for entire school, cohort, and demographic subgroups) and absenteeism (entire school). Multilevel growth-curve analyses tested program effects. PA significantly improved growth in academic motivation and mitigated disaffection with learning. There was a positive impact of PA on absenteeism and marginally significant impact on math performance of all students. There were favorable program effects on reading for African American boys and cohort students transitioning between grades 7 and 8, and on math for girls and low-income students. A school-based SECD program was found to influence academic outcomes among students living in low-income, urban communities. Future research should examine mechanisms by which changes in SECD influence changes in academic outcomes. © 2013, American School Health Association.

[Migration to metropolitan Mexico City].

PubMed

Cantu Gutierrez, J J; Luque Gonzalez, R

1990-01-01

Accelerated urbanization, especially after 1940, has been among the great transformations in Mexico associated with rapid and sustained economic growth during 1950-80. The urbanization process was highly selective, favoring in particular Mexico City, Guadalajara, and Monterey, which together contain about 25% of Mexico¿s total population. Metropolitan Mexico City alone contained around 18.2% of the total 1990 population on 0.2% of Mexico¿s land area. Mexico City¿s population grew at an average annual rate of 4.2%, from 1.6 million in 1940 to 14.8 million in 1990, largely due to in-migration. Migrants and their reproduction are estimated to have accounted for 51.2% of Mexico City¿s growth since 1940, and physical expansion of the metropolitan zone for another 5.7%. Slightly over 80% of migrants come from 10 states that are mostly rural, relatively densely populated, not distant, and below average in living levels. Women predominate slightly. Nearly half of migrants are aged 15-29 years on arrival. The proportion with no more than primary education is higher than that of Mexico City natives, but the proportion with post-secondary education is similar. Pollution, lack of public safety, and other urban problems will probably combine to discourage migration to Mexico City in the future and encourage departures to less difficult cities.

Assessment of Groundwater Resources of Dauphin Island and its Connection to Urban Sprawl and Economic Growth

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Petty, K. S.

2009-12-01

Dauphin Island is a barrier island about 28 miles south of Mobile, Alabama. The island relies heavily on the shallow aquifer underlying the barrier island. Worldwide, the largest volume of water used for human consumption and use comes from groundwater resources. On barrier islands such as Dauphin Island, the proportion of water used by humans coming from groundwater resources is even higher. Additionally, tourism is very important to the economy of Dauphin Island, and the hotels and tourist attractions rely on groundwater. Because of the large influx of people there are peaks in water demand during tourist season. The goal of this project is to quantify the impacts of urban growth on the aquifer and provide an estimate for sustainable withdrawal rates. The project will be carried out in two main phases. In the first phase a water resource assessment and analysis will be conducted using the SEAWAT model. SEAWAT simulates three-dimensional variable-density ground-water flow coupled with multi-species solute and heat transport. In the second phase the calibrated groundwater model for the island will be used to perform a scenario analysis which would help link groundwater availability with urban sprawl. In this paper we will describe the research methodology and procedures that will be used in the project.

Age-period-cohort analysis of infectious disease mortality in urban-rural China, 1990-2010.

PubMed

Li, Zhi; Wang, Peigang; Gao, Ge; Xu, Chunling; Chen, Xinguang

2016-03-31

Although a number of studies on infectious disease trends in China exist, these studies have not distinguished the age, period, and cohort effects simultaneously. Here, we analyze infectious disease mortality trends among urban and rural residents in China and distinguish the age, period, and cohort effects simultaneously. Infectious disease mortality rates (1990-2010) of urban and rural residents (5-84 years old) were obtained from the China Health Statistical Yearbook and analyzed with an age-period-cohort (APC) model based on Intrinsic Estimator (IE). Infectious disease mortality is relatively high at age group 5-9, reaches a minimum in adolescence (age group 10-19), then rises with age, with the growth rate gradually slowing down from approximately age 75. From 1990 to 2010, except for a slight rise among urban residents from 2000 to 2005, the mortality of Chinese residents experienced a substantial decline, though at a slower pace from 2005 to 2010. In contrast to the urban residents, rural residents experienced a rapid decline in mortality during 2000 to 2005. The mortality gap between urban and rural residents substantially narrowed during this period. Overall, later birth cohorts experienced lower infectious disease mortality risk. From the 1906-1910 to the 1941-1945 birth cohorts, the decrease of mortality among urban residents was significantly faster than that of subsequent birth cohorts and rural counterparts. With the rapid aging of the Chinese population, the prevention and control of infectious disease in elderly people will present greater challenges. From 1990 to 2010, the infectious disease mortality of Chinese residents and the urban-rural disparity have experienced substantial declines. However, the re-emergence of previously prevalent diseases and the emergence of new infectious diseases created new challenges. It is necessary to further strengthen screening, immunization, and treatment for the elderly and for older cohorts at high risk.

Analysis of river health variation under the background of urbanization based on entropy weight and matter-element model: A case study in Huzhou City in the Yangtze River Delta, China.

PubMed

Pan, Guangbo; Xu, Youpeng; Yu, Zhihui; Song, Song; Zhang, Yuan

2015-05-01

Maintaining the health of the river ecosystem is an essential ecological and environmental guarantee for regional sustainable development and one of the basic objectives in water resource management. With the rapid development of urbanization, the river health situation is deteriorating, especially in urban areas. The river health evaluation is a complex process that involves various natural and social components; eight eco-hydrological indicators were selected to establish an evaluation system, and the variation of river health status under the background of urbanization was explored based on entropy weight and matter-element model. The comprehensive correlative degrees of urban river health of Huzhou City in 2001, 2006 and 2010 were then calculated. The results indicated that river health status of the study area was in the direction of pathological trend, and the impact of limiting factors (such as Shannon's diversity index and agroforestry output growth rate) played an important role in river health. The variation of maximum correlative degree could be classified into stationary status, deterioration status, deterioration-to-improvement status, and improvement-to-deterioration status. There was a severe deterioration situation of river health under the background of urbanization. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Application of Earth Resources Technology Satellite data to urban development and regional planning: Test site, County of Los Angeles

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Raje, S. (Principal Investigator); Economy, R.; Mcknight, J. S.; Garofalo, P.

1973-01-01

The author has identified the following significant results. Signigicant results have been obtained from the analyses of ERTS-1 imagery from five cycles over Test Site SR 124 by classical photointerpretation and by an interactive hybrid multispectral information extraction system (GEMS). Photointerpretation has produced over 25 overlays at 1:1,000,000 scale depicting regional relations and urban structure in terms of several hundred linear and areal features. A possible new fault lineament has been discovered on the northern slope of the Santa Monica mountains. GEMS analysis of the ERTS-1 products has provided new or improved information in the following planning data categories: urban vegetation; land cover segregation; manmade and natural impact monitoring; urban design; land suitability. ERTS-1 data analysis has allowed planners to establish trends that directly impact planning policies. For example, detectable grading and new construction sites quantitatively indicated the extent, direction, and rate of urban expansion which enable planners to forecast demand and growth patterns on a regional scale. This new source of information will not only assist current methods to be more efficient, but permits entirely new planning methodologies to be employed.

Rural-urban migration and child survival in urban Bangladesh: are the urban migrants and poor disadvantaged?

PubMed

Islam, M Mazharul; Azad, Kazi Md Abul Kalam

2008-01-01

This paper analyses the levels and trends of childhood mortality in urban Bangladesh, and examines whether children's survival chances are poorer among the urban migrants and urban poor. It also examines the determinants of child survival in urban Bangladesh. Data come from the 1999-2000 Bangladesh Demographic and Health Survey. The results indicate that, although the indices of infant and child mortality are consistently better in urban areas, the urban-rural differentials in childhood mortality have diminished in recent years. The study identifies two distinct child morality regimes in urban Bangladesh: one for urban natives and one for rural-urban migrants. Under-five mortality is higher among children born to urban migrants compared with children born to life-long urban natives (102 and 62 per 1000 live births, respectively). The migrant-native mortality differentials more-or-less correspond with the differences in socioeconomic status. Like childhood mortality rates, rural-urban migrants seem to be moderately disadvantaged by economic status compared with their urban native counterparts. Within the urban areas, the child survival status is even worse among the migrant poor than among the average urban poor, especially recent migrants. This poor-non-poor differential in childhood mortality is higher in urban areas than in rural areas. The study findings indicate that rapid growth of the urban population in recent years due to rural-to-urban migration, coupled with higher risk of mortality among migrant's children, may be considered as one of the major explanations for slower decline in under-five mortality in urban Bangladesh, thus diminishing urban-rural differentials in childhood mortality in Bangladesh. The study demonstrates that housing conditions and access to safe drinking water and hygienic toilet facilities are the most critical determinants of child survival in urban areas, even after controlling for migration status. The findings of the study may have important policy implications for urban planning, highlighting the need to target migrant groups and the urban poor within urban areas in the provision of health care services.

An examination of land use impacts of flooding induced by sea level rise

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Song, Jie; Fu, Xinyu; Gu, Yue; Deng, Yujun; Peng, Zhong-Ren

2017-03-01

Coastal regions become unprecedentedly vulnerable to coastal hazards that are associated with sea level rise. The purpose of this paper is therefore to simulate prospective urban exposure to changing sea levels. This article first applied the cellular-automaton-based SLEUTH model (Project Gigalopolis, 2016) to calibrate historical urban dynamics in Bay County, Florida (USA) - a region that is greatly threatened by rising sea levels. This paper estimated five urban growth parameters by multiple-calibration procedures that used different Monte Carlo iterations to account for modeling uncertainties. It then employed the calibrated model to predict three scenarios of urban growth up to 2080 - historical trend, urban sprawl, and compact development. We also assessed land use impacts of four policies: no regulations; flood mitigation plans based on the whole study region and on those areas that are prone to experience growth; and the protection of conservational lands. This study lastly overlaid projected urban areas in 2030 and 2080 with 500-year flooding maps that were developed under 0, 0.2, and 0.9 m sea level rise. The calibration results that a substantial number of built-up regions extend from established coastal settlements. The predictions suggest that total flooded area of new urbanized regions in 2080 would be more than 25 times that under the flood mitigation policy, if the urbanization progresses with few policy interventions. The joint model generates new knowledge in the domain between land use modeling and sea level rise. It contributes to coastal spatial planning by helping develop hazard mitigation schemes and can be employed in other international communities that face combined pressure of urban growth and climate change.

Efficiency of sewage sludge biochar in improving urban soil properties and promoting grass growth.

PubMed

Yue, Yan; Cui, Liu; Lin, Qimei; Li, Guitong; Zhao, Xiaorong

2017-04-01

It is meaningful to quickly improve poor urban soil fertility in order to establish the green land vegetation. In this study, a series rates (0%, 1%, 5%, 10%, 20% and 50%, in mass ratio) of biochar derived from municipal sewage sludge was applied into an urban soil and then turf grass was grown in pots. The results showed that biochar amendment induced significant increases in soil total nitrogen, organic carbon, black carbon, and available phosphorus and potassium by more than 1.5, 1.9, 4.5, 5.6 and 0.4 times, respectively. Turf grass dry matter increased proportionally with increasing amount of added biochar (by an average of 74%), due to the improvement in plant mineral nutrition. Biochar amendment largely increased the total amounts of soil heavy metals. However, 43-97% of the heavy metals in the amended soil were concentrated in the residual fraction with low bioavailability. So the accumulation of heavy metals in turf grass aboveground biomass was highly reduced by the addition of biochar. These results indicated that sewage sludge biochar could be recommended in the poor urban raw soil as a soil conditioner at a rate of 50%. However, the environmental risk of heavy metal accumulation in soil amended with sewage sludge biochar should be carefully considered. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Spatial and Temporal Mapping of the Evolution of the Miami-Fort Lauderdale-West Palm Beach Metropolitan Statistical Area (MSA)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rochelo, Mark

Urbanization is a fundamental reality in the developed and developing countries around the world creating large concentrations of the population centering on cities and urban centers. Cities can offer many opportunities for those residing there, including infrastructure, health services, rescue services and more. The living space density of cities allows for the opportunity of more effective and environmentally friendly housing, transportation and resources. Cities play a vital role in generating economic production as entities by themselves and as a part of larger urban complex. The benefits can provide for extraordinary amount of people, but only if proper planning and consideration is undertaken. Global urbanization is a progressive evolution, unique in spatial location while consistent to an overall growth pattern and trend. Remotely sensing these patterns from the last forty years of space borne satellites to understand how urbanization has developed is important to understanding past growth as well as planning for the future. Imagery from the Landsat sensor program provides the temporal component, it was the first satellite launched in 1972, providing appropriate spatial resolution needed to cover a large metropolitan statistical area to monitor urban growth and change on a large scale. This research maps the urban spatial and population growth over the Miami - Fort Lauderdale - West Palm Beach Metropolitan Statistical Area (MSA) covering Miami-Dade, Broward, and Palm Beach counties in Southeast Florida from 1974 to 2010 using Landsat imagery. Supervised Maximum Likelihood classification was performed with a combination of spectral and textural training fields employed in ERDAS Image 2014 to classify the images into urban and non-urban areas. Dasymetric mapping of the classification results were combined with census tract data then created a coherent depiction of the Miami - Fort Lauderdale - West Palm Beach MSA. Static maps and animated files were created from the final datasets for enhanced visualizations and understanding of the MSA evolution from 60-meter resolution remotely sensed Landsat images. The simplified methodology will create a database for urban planning and population growth as well as future work in this area.

Urban compaction or dispersion? An air quality modelling study

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Martins, Helena

2012-07-01

Urban sprawl is altering the landscape, with current trends pointing to further changes in land use that will, in turn, lead to changes in population, energy consumption, atmospheric emissions and air quality. Urban planners have debated on the most sustainable urban structure, with arguments in favour and against urban compaction and dispersion. However, it is clear that other areas of expertise have to be involved. Urban air quality and human exposure to atmospheric pollutants as indicators of urban sustainability can contribute to the discussion, namely through the study of the relation between urban structure and air quality. This paper addresses the issue by analysing the impacts of alternative urban growth patterns on the air quality of Porto urban region in Portugal, through a 1-year simulation with the MM5-CAMx modelling system. This region has been experiencing one of the highest European rates of urban sprawl, and at the same time presents a poor air quality. As part of the modelling system setup, a sensitivity study was conducted regarding different land use datasets and spatial distribution of emissions. Two urban development scenarios were defined, SPRAWL and COMPACT, together with their new land use and emission datasets; then meteorological and air quality simulations were performed. Results reveal that SPRAWL land use changes resulted in an average temperature increase of 0.4 °C, with local increases reaching as high as 1.5 °C. SPRAWL results also show an aggravation of PM10 annual average values and an increase in the exceedances to the daily limit value. For ozone, differences between scenarios were smaller, with SPRAWL presenting larger concentration differences than COMPACT. Finally, despite the higher concentrations found in SPRAWL, population exposure to the pollutants is higher for COMPACT because more inhabitants are found in areas of highest concentration levels.

Nineteenth Century Harbors: Accounting for Coastal Urban Development in Hydrologic Change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schlichting, K. M.; Ruffing, C. M.; McCormack, S. M.; Urbanova, T.; Powell, L. J.; Hermans, C. M.

2009-12-01

Harbors complicate the analytical framework of quantifying nineteenth-century hydrologic change in the northeastern United States. The hydrology of the region was fundamentally altered by the growth of water engineering such as canals as well as by land cover changes as deforestation in the region peaked and urban centers grew. Urban coastal growth epitomized nineteenth-century development as northeastern colonial ports evolved into manufacturing and industrial centers. Coastal urban industrial development concentrated tanneries, machineries, and paper processing companies along cities’ trading rivers. Additionally, the populations of cities such as Boston, New Haven, New York, Newark, and Baltimore reached unprecedented numbers, forcing urban municipalities to confront sewerage and drinking water infrastructure in the face of shortages and waterborne disease. We discuss how the concentration of industry and population at river mouths complicates the process of quantifying the effects of municipal drinking water and sewage infrastructure on regional hydrology and how the growth of nineteenth-century urban centers shaped regional hydrologic hinterlands. Additionally, harbors oblige a reconsideration of hydrologic boundaries by forcing hydrologists and environmental historians to account for fisheries and harbor engineering alongside population and industry as factors in changes to water quality and quantity in and human response to urban nineteenth-century hydrologic change.

Long-term urban carbon dioxide observations reveal spatial and temporal dynamics related to urban characteristics and growth

DOE PAGES

Mitchell, Logan E.; Lin, John C.; Bowling, David R.; ...

2018-03-05

Cities are concentrated areas of CO 2 emissions and have become the foci of policies for mitigation actions. However, atmospheric measurement networks suitable for evaluating urban emissions over time are scarce. Here we present a unique long-term (decadal) record of CO 2 mole fractions from five sites across Utah’s metropolitan Salt Lake Valley. We examine “excess” CO 2 above background conditions resulting from local emissions and meteorological conditions. We ascribe CO 2 trends to changes in emissions, since we did not find longterm trends in atmospheric mixing proxies. Three contrasting CO 2 trends emerged across urban types: negative trends atmore » a residentialindustrial site, positive trends at a site surrounded by rapid suburban growth, and relatively constant CO 2 over time at multiple sites in the established, residential, and commercial urban core. Analysis of populationwithin the atmospheric footprints of the different sites reveals approximately equal increases in population influencing the observed CO 2, implying a nonlinear relationshipwith CO 2 emissions: Population growth in rural areas that experienced suburban development was associated with increasing emissions while population growth in the developed urban core was associated with stable emissions. Four state-of-the-art global-scale emission inventories also have a nonlinear relationship with population density across the city; however, in contrast to our observations, they all have nearly constant emissions over time. Our results indicate that decadal scale changes in urban CO 2 emissions are detectable through monitoring networks and constitute a valuable approach to evaluate emission inventories and studies of urban carbon cycles.« less

Long-term urban carbon dioxide observations reveal spatial and temporal dynamics related to urban characteristics and growth

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mitchell, Logan E.; Lin, John C.; Bowling, David R.; Pataki, Diane E.; Strong, Courtenay; Schauer, Andrew J.; Bares, Ryan; Bush, Susan E.; Stephens, Britton B.; Mendoza, Daniel; Mallia, Derek; Holland, Lacey; Gurney, Kevin R.; Ehleringer, James R.

2018-03-01

Cities are concentrated areas of CO2 emissions and have become the foci of policies for mitigation actions. However, atmospheric measurement networks suitable for evaluating urban emissions over time are scarce. Here we present a unique long-term (decadal) record of CO2 mole fractions from five sites across Utah’s metropolitan Salt Lake Valley. We examine “excess” CO2 above background conditions resulting from local emissions and meteorological conditions. We ascribe CO2 trends to changes in emissions, since we did not find long-term trends in atmospheric mixing proxies. Three contrasting CO2 trends emerged across urban types: negative trends at a residential-industrial site, positive trends at a site surrounded by rapid suburban growth, and relatively constant CO2 over time at multiple sites in the established, residential, and commercial urban core. Analysis of population within the atmospheric footprints of the different sites reveals approximately equal increases in population influencing the observed CO2, implying a nonlinear relationship with CO2 emissions: Population growth in rural areas that experienced suburban development was associated with increasing emissions while population growth in the developed urban core was associated with stable emissions. Four state-of-the-art global-scale emission inventories also have a nonlinear relationship with population density across the city; however, in contrast to our observations, they all have nearly constant emissions over time. Our results indicate that decadal scale changes in urban CO2 emissions are detectable through monitoring networks and constitute a valuable approach to evaluate emission inventories and studies of urban carbon cycles.

Long-term urban carbon dioxide observations reveal spatial and temporal dynamics related to urban characteristics and growth

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Mitchell, Logan E.; Lin, John C.; Bowling, David R.

Cities are concentrated areas of CO 2 emissions and have become the foci of policies for mitigation actions. However, atmospheric measurement networks suitable for evaluating urban emissions over time are scarce. Here we present a unique long-term (decadal) record of CO 2 mole fractions from five sites across Utah’s metropolitan Salt Lake Valley. We examine “excess” CO 2 above background conditions resulting from local emissions and meteorological conditions. We ascribe CO 2 trends to changes in emissions, since we did not find longterm trends in atmospheric mixing proxies. Three contrasting CO 2 trends emerged across urban types: negative trends atmore » a residentialindustrial site, positive trends at a site surrounded by rapid suburban growth, and relatively constant CO 2 over time at multiple sites in the established, residential, and commercial urban core. Analysis of populationwithin the atmospheric footprints of the different sites reveals approximately equal increases in population influencing the observed CO 2, implying a nonlinear relationshipwith CO 2 emissions: Population growth in rural areas that experienced suburban development was associated with increasing emissions while population growth in the developed urban core was associated with stable emissions. Four state-of-the-art global-scale emission inventories also have a nonlinear relationship with population density across the city; however, in contrast to our observations, they all have nearly constant emissions over time. Our results indicate that decadal scale changes in urban CO 2 emissions are detectable through monitoring networks and constitute a valuable approach to evaluate emission inventories and studies of urban carbon cycles.« less

Remote sensing of impervious surface growth: A framework for quantifying urban expansion and re-densification mechanisms

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shahtahmassebi, Amir Reza; Song, Jie; Zheng, Qing; Blackburn, George Alan; Wang, Ke; Huang, Ling Yan; Pan, Yi; Moore, Nathan; Shahtahmassebi, Golnaz; Sadrabadi Haghighi, Reza; Deng, Jing Song

2016-04-01

A substantial body of literature has accumulated on the topic of using remotely sensed data to map impervious surfaces which are widely recognized as an important indicator of urbanization. However, the remote sensing of impervious surface growth has not been successfully addressed. This study proposes a new framework for deriving and summarizing urban expansion and re-densification using time series of impervious surface fractions (ISFs) derived from remotely sensed imagery. This approach integrates multiple endmember spectral mixture analysis (MESMA), analysis of regression residuals, spatial statistics (Getis_Ord) and urban growth theories; hence, the framework is abbreviated as MRGU. The performance of MRGU was compared with commonly used change detection techniques in order to evaluate the effectiveness of the approach. The results suggested that the ISF regression residuals were optimal for detecting impervious surface changes while Getis_Ord was effective for mapping hotspot regions in the regression residuals image. Moreover, the MRGU outputs agreed with the mechanisms proposed in several existing urban growth theories, but importantly the outputs enable the refinement of such models by explicitly accounting for the spatial distribution of both expansion and re-densification mechanisms. Based on Landsat data, the MRGU is somewhat restricted in its ability to measure re-densification in the urban core but this may be improved through the use of higher spatial resolution satellite imagery. The paper ends with an assessment of the present gaps in remote sensing of impervious surface growth and suggests some solutions. The application of impervious surface fractions in urban change detection is a stimulating new research idea which is driving future research with new models and algorithms.

Improving the capability of an integrated CA-Markov model to simulate spatio-temporal urban growth trends using an Analytical Hierarchy Process and Frequency Ratio

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Aburas, Maher Milad; Ho, Yuek Ming; Ramli, Mohammad Firuz; Ash'aari, Zulfa Hanan

2017-07-01

The creation of an accurate simulation of future urban growth is considered one of the most important challenges in urban studies that involve spatial modeling. The purpose of this study is to improve the simulation capability of an integrated CA-Markov Chain (CA-MC) model using CA-MC based on the Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP) and CA-MC based on Frequency Ratio (FR), both applied in Seremban, Malaysia, as well as to compare the performance and accuracy between the traditional and hybrid models. Various physical, socio-economic, utilities, and environmental criteria were used as predictors, including elevation, slope, soil texture, population density, distance to commercial area, distance to educational area, distance to residential area, distance to industrial area, distance to roads, distance to highway, distance to railway, distance to power line, distance to stream, and land cover. For calibration, three models were applied to simulate urban growth trends in 2010; the actual data of 2010 were used for model validation utilizing the Relative Operating Characteristic (ROC) and Kappa coefficient methods Consequently, future urban growth maps of 2020 and 2030 were created. The validation findings confirm that the integration of the CA-MC model with the FR model and employing the significant driving force of urban growth in the simulation process have resulted in the improved simulation capability of the CA-MC model. This study has provided a novel approach for improving the CA-MC model based on FR, which will provide powerful support to planners and decision-makers in the development of future sustainable urban planning.

Urban Sprawl, Smart Growth, and Deliberative Democracy

PubMed Central

2010-01-01

Urban sprawl is an increasingly common feature of the built environment in the United States and other industrialized nations. Although there is considerable evidence that urban sprawl has adverse affects on public health and the environment, policy frameworks designed to combat sprawl—such as smart growth—have proven to be controversial, making implementation difficult. Smart growth has generated considerable controversy because stakeholders affected by urban planning policies have conflicting interests and divergent moral and political viewpoints. In some of these situations, deliberative democracy—an approach to resolving controversial public-policy questions that emphasizes open, deliberative debate among the affected parties as an alternative to voting—would be a fair and effective way to resolve urban-planning issues. PMID:20724685

Urban Area Monitoring using MODIS Time Series Data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Devadiga, S.; Sarkar, S.; Mauoka, E.

2015-12-01

Growing urban sprawl and its impact on global climate due to urban heat island effects has been an active area of research over the recent years. This is especially significant in light of rapid urbanization that is happening in some of the first developing nations across the globe. But so far study of urban area growth has been largely restricted to local and regional scales, using high to medium resolution satellite observations, taken at distinct time periods. In this presentation we propose a new approach to detect and monitor urban area expansion using long time series of MODIS data. This work characterizes data points using a vector of several annual metrics computed from the MODIS 8-day and 16-day composite L3 data products, at 250M resolution and over several years and then uses a vector angle mapping classifier to detect and segment the urban area. The classifier is trained using a set of training points obtained from a reference vector point and polygon pre-filtered using the MODIS VI product. This work gains additional significance, given that, despite unprecedented urban growth since 2000, the area covered by the urban class in the MODIS Global Land Cover (MCD12Q1, MCDLCHKM and MCDLC1KM) product hasn't changed since the launch of Terra and Aqua. The proposed approach was applied to delineate the urban area around several cities in Asia known to have maximum growth in the last 15 years. Results were verified using high resolution Landsat data.

Internal migration to Nairobi's slums: linking migrant streams to sexual risk behavior.

PubMed

Greif, Meredith J; Nii-Amoo Dodoo, F

2011-01-01

Despite what is currently the most rapid urbanization on the globe, an alarming growth of impoverished urban slum settlements in Africa, and the highest rates of HIV in the world - with greater prevalence in urban than rural areas - insufficient attention has been paid to the relationship between urban poverty and risky sexual behavior. Although emerging research has focused on how slum residence is linked to risky behavior, there is a paucity of work on how migration to slums is related to risky sex. Using a sample of sexually active women from the 2000 Nairobi Cross-Sectional Slum Survey (NCSS), this paper demonstrates that the relationship between slum residence and risky behavior is a multifaceted one. Beyond the effect of current residence in slums migratory factors, specifically previous place of residence and length of time since arrival, prove to be significant cofactors, with the effect of the former conditioned by the latter. Perhaps more importantly, where migrants moved from appears to influence risky behavior in a non-uniform manner. Copyright © 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Reduced Ultrafine Particle Concentration in Urban Air: Changes in Nucleation and Anthropogenic Emissions.

PubMed

Saha, Provat K; Robinson, Ellis S; Shah, Rishabh U; Zimmerman, Naomi; Apte, Joshua S; Robinson, Allen L; Presto, Albert A

2018-06-19

Nucleation is an important source of ambient ultrafine particles (UFP). We present observational evidence of the changes in the frequency and intensity of nucleation events in urban air by analyzing long-term particle size distribution measurements at an urban background site in Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania during 2001-2002 and 2016-2017. We find that both frequency and intensity of nucleation events have been reduced by 40-50% over the past 15 years, resulting in a 70% reduction in UFP concentrations from nucleation. On average, the particle growth rates are 30% slower than 15 years ago. We attribute these changes to dramatic reductions in SO 2 (more than 90%) and other pollutant concentrations. Overall, UFP concentrations in Pittsburgh have been reduced by ∼48% in the past 15 years, with a ∼70% reduction in nucleation, ∼27% in weekday local sources (e.g., weekday traffic), and 49% in the regional background. Our results highlight that a reduction in anthropogenic emissions can considerably reduce nucleation events and UFP concentrations in a polluted urban environment.

Trends in the growth of population and labour force in Pakistan.

PubMed

Hashmi, S S

1990-01-01

Trends in the growth of the population and labor force in Pakistan are examined and future prospects for growth of population and labor, particularly agriculture, are estimated. The definition of labor force as employed or seeking work after a short period of employment has led to a great disparity in results for women in the labor force. Past trends in population growth reflected a growth rate of 1.6% for the 1950's, and 2.4% in 1960. The population rose to 84.3 million in 1981 from 42.6 million in 1961, which intercensally was an increase of 3.6% per annum for 1961-72 and 3.1% per annum for 1972-81. The estimated rate for 1981-86 was 2.9%/year. The rural population doubled and the urban tripled. There was a net migration of 2.123 million to urban areas reported in the 1981 census. There is also evidence of a high sex ratio. Balochistan (7.1%) and Sindh (3.6%) provinces have the highest growth rates. Although the largest population is in the Punjab, the growth is the lowest at 2.7%. The population is primarily young -- 44.5% 15 years in 1981, which is the highest in the world. Under high, medium, and low levels of fertility, prospective trends are estimated for 2006 and 2031, and by sex every 5 years from 1981. Population under high fertility is expected to reach 270 million by 2031, which is 3.39 persons/hectare. The population/hectare of land under cultivation was 4.25 in 1981 and is expected to rise to 13.49 persons/hectare in 2031. 11 million acres could be brought under cultivation to reduce the ratio. However, there are ecological considerations as well as an employment problem. The dependency ratio under the high variant will decline from 76.8 persons 0-14 and 65 years/100 persons 15-64 years in 1986 to 70.3 in 2006 which is still considerably higher than other developing countries. It is suggested that replacement level fertility be attained as soon as possible. Under low fertility, replacement level can be reached by 2011 with strong political commitment. Past trends in the labor force, employment and unemployment, and employment by major industry are reported. The labor force participation rate of 29.6% in 1985 is among the lowest in the world. The age structure of the population, inadequate human resource development, and underreporting of females in the labor force account for the low rates. Population grew by 96.5% between 1961 and 81, but labor force increased 77.3% and employment 74.4%. The greatest growth was in the nonagricultural sector. Prospective trends show agricultural labor force growing from 15.1 million in 1981 to 20.2 million in 2006, which is expected to put pressure on agricultural land. Female nonagricultural sector labor force is expected to grow due to increased literacy and fertility declines.

Geosimulation of urban growth and demographic decline in the Ruhr: a case study for 2025 using the artificial intelligence of cells and agents

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rienow, Andreas; Stenger, Dirk

2014-07-01

The Ruhr is an "old acquaintance" in the discourse of urban decline in old industrialized cities. The agglomeration has to struggle with archetypical problems of former monofunctional manufacturing cities. Surprisingly, the image of a shrinking city has to be refuted if you shift the focus from socioeconomic wealth to its morphological extension. Thus, it is the objective of this study to meet the challenge of modeling urban sprawl and demographic decline by combining two artificial intelligent solutions: The popular urban cellular automaton SLEUTH simulates urban growth using four simple but effective growth rules. In order to improve its performance, SLEUTH has been modified among others by combining it with a robust probability map based on support vector machines. Additionally, a complex multi-agent system is developed to simulate residential mobility in a shrinking city agglomeration: residential mobility and the housing market of shrinking city systems focuses on the dynamic of interregional housing markets implying the development of potential dwelling areas. The multi-agent system comprises the simulation of population patterns, housing prices, and housing demand in shrinking city agglomerations. Both models are calibrated and validated regarding their localization and quantification performance. Subsequently, the urban landscape configuration and composition of the Ruhr 2025 are simulated. A simple spatial join is used to combine the results serving as valuable inputs for future regional planning in the context of multifarious demographic change and preceding urban growth.

Long-term monitoring of Sacramento Shade program trees: tree survival, growth and energy-saving performance

Treesearch

Yekang Ko; Jun-Hak Lee; E. Gregory McPherson; Lara A. Roman

2015-01-01

Long-term survival and growth of urban forests are critical to achieve the targeted benefits of urban tree planting programs, such as building energy savings from tree shade. However, little is known about how trees perform in the long-term, especially in residential areas. Given this gap in the literature, we monitored 22-years of post-planting survival, growth, and...

[A national survey on physical growth and development of children under seven years of age in nine cities of China in 2015].

PubMed

2018-03-02

Objective: To investigate and analyze the status of physical growth and its change in children under 7 years of age in 9 cities of China, and to provide scientific data for renewing and developing the new growth reference of Chinese children. Methods: Data of healthy children under 7 years of age were collected by stratified cluster sampling method in Beijing, Harbin, Xi'an, Shanghai, Nanjing, Wuhan, Guangzhou, Fuzhou and Kunming during the period from June to November in 2015. They were divided into 22 age groups. The sample size of boys or girls, urban or suburban was 150-200 in each age group in each city, and the total sample size in the 9 cities was 161 774. Weight, length/height, head circumference, sitting height, chest circumference and waist circumference were measured by the trained investigators using standard methods. There were strict quality control measures during investigation process. The t test was used to compare the difference of physical growth between two groups and one-way ANOVA was used to compare the difference of physical growth among three groups. Results: (1) The level of physical growth of children under 7 years were different between boys and girls, urban and suburban, as well as different regions of China in 2015. The urban-suburban difference was more significant in children older than 8 months, that is, the weight and height of urban children were greater than those of suburban children (0.01-0.48 kg and 0.1-1.1 cm respectively). (2) Weight and height of children in the 9 cities, whether urban or suburban areas, had been greater than WHO growth standards, for example, the Z-scores of height values of urban and suburban children were 0.43 ±0.99 ( t= 130.551, P< 0.05) and 0.30 ±1.01 ( t= 87.407, P< 0.05) higher than the WHO standards. (3) The physical growth of children in the 9 cities was improved in varying degrees during the past 10 years. For example, the changes of weight and height in urban children under 3 years were not significant, while there was significant improvement among children older than 3 years and the increasing trend became apparent along with the increasing of age (0.05-1.18 kg in weight and 0.5-1.8 cm in height). The urban-suburban difference of physical growth in each age group of boys and girls narrowed significantly during the past 10 years, which was clearly shown from the narrowing urban-suburban differences of weight and height in boys aged 5.5-<6.0 years (1.58 kg in 2005 vs . 0.44 kg in 2015 and 2.8 cm in 2005 vs . 0.9 cm in 2015) . (4) From the increments of each decade during 1975-2015, a rapid increments of physical growth during 1975-2005 were found, while the increments after 2005 had slowed comparing with that of the previous period in urban areas, for example, the increments of height in boys aged 5.5-<6.0 years were 1.5, 2.1, 2.7, 0.7 cm respectively in the 1(st), 2(nd), 3(rd) and 4(th) decade (1975-1985, 1985-1995, 1995-2005, 2005-2015) . In suburban areas, the trends of the previous 3 decades were similar with that of urban children, while the increments of the 4(th) decade were still bigger though they were slightly smaller than those of the 3(rd) decade, for example, the increments of height in boys aged 5.5-<6.0 years were 2.4, 2.3, 3.2, 2.6 cm in the 1(st), 2(nd), 3(rd) and 4(th) decade respectively. Conclusions: Physical growth of children under 7 years of age showed a slow positive secular trend during the last decade after a rapid increase. The increments of suburban children's physical growth were greater than those of urban children. The physical growth of children under 7 years in 9 Chinese cities exceeded the WHO standards.

Monitoring and predicting the fecal indicator bacteria concentrations from agricultural, mixed land use and urban stormwater runoff.

PubMed

Paule-Mercado, M A; Ventura, J S; Memon, S A; Jahng, D; Kang, J-H; Lee, C-H

2016-04-15

While the urban runoff are increasingly being studied as a source of fecal indicator bacteria (FIB), less is known about the occurrence of FIB in watershed with mixed land use and ongoing land use and land cover (LULC) change. In this study, Escherichia coli (EC) and fecal streptococcus (FS) were monitored from 2012 to 2013 in agricultural, mixed and urban LULC and analyzed according to the most probable number (MPN). Pearson correlation was used to determine the relationship between FIB and environmental parameters (physicochemical and hydrometeorological). Multiple linear regressions (MLR) were used to identify the significant parameters that affect the FIB concentrations and to predict the response of FIB in LULC change. Overall, the FIB concentrations were higher in urban LULC (EC=3.33-7.39; FS=3.30-7.36log10MPN/100mL) possibly because of runoff from commercial market and 100% impervious cover (IC). Also, during early-summer season; this reflects a greater persistence and growth rate of FIB in a warmer environment. During intra-event, however, the FIB concentrations varied according to site condition. Anthropogenic activities and IC influenced the correlation between the FIB concentrations and environmental parameters. Stormwater temperature (TEMP), turbidity, and TSS positively correlated with the FIB concentrations (p>0.01), since IC increased, implying an accumulation of bacterial sources in urban activities. TEMP, BOD5, turbidity, TSS, and antecedent dry days (ADD) were the most significant explanatory variables for FIB as determined in MLR, possibly because they promoted the FIB growth and survival. The model confirmed the FIB concentrations: EC (R(2)=0.71-0.85; NSE=0.72-0.86) and FS (R(2)=0.65-0.83; NSE=0.66-0.84) are predicted to increase due to urbanization. Therefore, these findings will help in stormwater monitoring strategies, designing the best management practice for FIB removal and as input data for stormwater models. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Study for urbanization corresponding to socio-economic activities in Savannaket, Laos using satellite remote sensing

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kimijiama, S.; Nagai, M.

2014-06-01

In Greater Mekong Sub-region (GMS), economic liberalization and deregulation facilitated by GMS Regional Economic Corporation Program (GMS-ECP) has triggered urbanization in the region. However, the urbanization rate and its linkage to socio-economic activities are ambiguous. The objectives of this paper are to: (a) determine the changes in urban area from 1972 to 2013 using remote sensing data, and (b) analyse the relationships between urbanization with respect to socio-economic activities in central Laos. The study employed supervised classification and human visible interpretation to determine changes in urbanization rate. Regression analysis was used to analyze the correlation between the urbanization rate and socio-economic variables. The result shows that the urban area increased significantly from 1972 to 2013. The socio-economic variables such as school enrollment, labour force, mortality rate, water source and sanitation highly correlated with the rate of urbanization during the period. The study concluded that identifying the highly correlated socio-economic variables with urbanization rate could enable us to conduct a further urbanization simulation. The simulation helps in designing policies for sustainable development.

40 CFR 81.300 - Scope.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-07-01

... boundary limits as of October 31, 1990. (2) Similarly, for planning areas, air quality maintenance areas..., air quality maintenance area, air basin, or urban growth boundary as of November 15, 1990, except for..., air quality maintenance area, air basin, or urban growth boundary as of October 31, 1990. The...

40 CFR 81.300 - Scope.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

2014-07-01

... boundary limits as of October 31, 1990. (2) Similarly, for planning areas, air quality maintenance areas..., air quality maintenance area, air basin, or urban growth boundary as of November 15, 1990, except for..., air quality maintenance area, air basin, or urban growth boundary as of October 31, 1990. The...

Model of Environmental Development of the Urbanized Areas: Accounting of Ecological and other Factors

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Abanina, E. N.; Pandakov, K. G.; Agapov, D. A.; Sorokina, Yu V.; Vasiliev, E. H.

2017-05-01

Modern cities and towns are often characterized by poor administration, which could be the reason of environmental degradation, the poverty growth, decline in economic growth and social isolation. In these circumstances it is really important to conduct fresh researches forming new ways of sustainable development of administrative districts. This development of the urban areas depends on many interdependent factors: ecological, economic, social. In this article we show some theoretical aspects of forming a model of environmental progress of the urbanized areas. We submit some model containing four levels including natural resources capacities of the territory, its social features, economic growth and human impact. The author describes the interrelations of elements of the model. In this article the program of environmental development of a city is offered and it could be used in any urban area.

Decomposing change in China's suicide rate, 1990-2010: ageing and urbanisation.

PubMed

Sha, Feng; Yip, Paul S F; Law, Yik Wa

2017-02-01

The study empirically quantifies the contributions of age composition and urbanisation to changes in the suicide rate in China over the periods 1990-2000 and 2000-2010. A decompositional method was used to quantify the absolute and relative contributions of the age structure; the age-specific proportion of the urban population and the suicide rate of each age-specific, gender-specific and urban/rural cohort to the overall suicide rates in the two 10-year intervals. In the period between 1990 and 2000, a significant decline in the suicide rate among younger age groups (especially young rural women) was identified as the main driving force of the downward trend in the overall suicide rate. In 2000-2010, the rate of decline in suicide was predominantly explained by the drop in the suicide rate among all age groups in rural areas, with the exception of those aged over 80. The positive impact of urbanisation on the decline of the suicide rate has gradually diminished relative to the earlier period. As the positive impact of urbanisation on suicide rates is diminishing, further urbanisation and rapid change in society may induce stress and adjustment problems that are not conducive to the promotion of well-being. Furthermore, as China is facing the prospects of slower economic growth and a rapidly ageing population, suicides among older adults may also be elevated, particularly among those in rural areas with insufficient healthcare and social support. In order to maintain the decreasing trend of suicide in China, it is important for the Chinese government to pay more attention to the mental well-being of the population and to mitigate the stress of urban life and to provide timely support to older adults especially in rural areas. Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://www.bmj.com/company/products-services/rights-and-licensing/.

Comparison of nutritional status of rural and urban school students receiving midday meals in schools of Bengaluru, India: a cross sectional study.

PubMed

Shalini, C N; Murthy, N S; Shalini, S; Dinesh, R; Shivaraj, N S; Suryanarayana, S P

2014-01-01

The objective of the study was to assess the impact of the mid day meal program by assessing the nutritional status of school students aged 5-15 years receiving midday meals in rural schools and compare them with those in urban schools in Bengaluru, India. This cross sectional study involved a sample of 4378 students from government and aided schools. Weight and height were measured and compared with ''means'' and ''percentiles'' of expected standards as endorsed by the Indian Association of Pediatrics. Regression coefficients were also estimated to assess the rate of growth. In all age groups and in both sexes, the observed mean weight and height were below the expected standards. The study findings showed that 13.8% and 13.1% of the studied students were underweight and stunted, respectively (below the third percentile for weight and height for age). A higher proportion of rural students were below the third percentile for both weight and height compared with urban students (weight: 16.3% and 11.5%; height: 17.0% and 10.0%; P < 0.05 for both weight and height). Only 2.4% and 3.1% were above 97 th percentile for weight and height. The rate of growth of height for weight showed a declining trend with increasing age in all the groups. The authors believe that the magnitude of the burden of undernourished students as seen in this study would have been much greater in the absence of the midday meal program. Greater involvement of the private sector to assist the government would help augment nutrition in children and indirectly impact school performance, attendance and literacy.

Drivers, trends, and potential impacts of long-term coastal reclamation in China from 1985 to 2010

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Tian, Bo; Wu, Wenting; Yang, Zhaoqing

Driven by rapid economic development, population growth, and urbanization, China has experienced severe coastal land reclamation over the last decades, which resulted in significant loss of coastal wetland and wildlife habitat, and degradation of marine ecosystems. This study used advanced remote-sensing techniques to analyze the spatial and temporal distributions of coastal reclamation in China and investigated the relationships between coastal land reclamation and coastal economy, population growth, and urbanization. Analysis of long-term Landsat images time series from 1985 to 2010 in 5-year intervals, in combination with remotely sensed image techniques, indicated a sharp increasing trend of land reclamation after 2005,more » which accounted for over 35% of China’s total reclamation during the 25-year period since 1985. High-intensity coastal reclamation in China was mainly driven by the booming economy associated with urbanization and industrial development in the coastal region. Analysis indicated that coastal land reclamation is closely correlated with the GDP per capita in China. Study results of Landsat images showed that 754,697 ha of coastal wetlands have been reclaimed across all coastal provinces and metropolises from 1985 to 2010, at an annual rate of 5.9%. Coastal areas within the three major economic zones (Bohai Bay, Yangtze River Delta, and Pearl River Delta) were found to generally have higher reclamation rates. For example, the built-up area in Shanghai, which is located in the Yangtze River Delta, increased more than five times from 1985 to 2010. Approximately 35% of the reclamation occurred in Bohai Bay, in which the CRI between 2005 and 2010 was three times higher than the average CRI over the 25-year period.« less

Land Use and Land Cover Changes and Urban Sprawl in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia: AN Analysis Using Multi-Temporal Landsat Data and SHANNON'S Entropy Index

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rahman, M. T.

2016-06-01

The city of Riyadh, Saudi Arabia has experienced rapid population growth and urban expansion over the past several decades. Due to such growth, the capital city faces many short and long-term social and environmental consequences. In order to monitor and mitigate some of these consequences, it is essential to examine the past changes and historical growth of the city. It is also essential to measure its urban sprawl over the past few decades. The objective of this study is to fulfil these goals. It does so by first examining the historical growth of the city of Riyadh. To do so, Landsat data over the past two and half decades are classified using a combination of supervised and unsupervised classification techniques. Based on the classification results, the study then uses Shannon's Entropy to measure the urban sprawl in the city. The results show that from 1990-2009, the urban built-up area of the city has increased by 90% in the western, south-eastern, and northern parts. The Shannon's entropy values show that the city is dispersing towards the outskirts of the city. The results from this study will assist city planners and government officials to plan, reduce, and perhaps mitigate some of the social and environmental consequences and enable the growth of the city in a sustainable manner in the near future.

Empirical Research on Decoupling Relationship between Energy-Related Carbon Emission and Economic Growth in Guangdong Province Based on Extended Kaya Identity

PubMed Central

Wang, Wenxiu; Huang, Ningsheng; Zhao, Daiqing

2014-01-01

The decoupling elasticity decomposition quantitative model of energy-related carbon emission in Guangdong is established based on the extended Kaya identity and Tapio decoupling model for the first time, to explore the decoupling relationship and its internal mechanism between energy-related carbon emission and economic growth in Guangdong. Main results are as follows. (1) Total production energy-related carbon emissions in Guangdong increase from 4128 × 104 tC in 1995 to 14396 × 104 tC in 2011. Decoupling elasticity values of energy-related carbon emission and economic growth increase from 0.53 in 1996 to 0.85 in 2011, and its decoupling state turns from weak decoupling in 1996–2004 to expansive coupling in 2005–2011. (2) Land economic output and energy intensity are the first inhibiting factor and the first promoting factor to energy-related carbon emission decoupling from economic growth, respectively. The development speeds of land urbanization and population urbanization, especially land urbanization, play decisive roles in the change of total decoupling elasticity values. (3) Guangdong can realize decoupling of energy-related carbon emission from economic growth effectively by adjusting the energy mix and industrial structure, coordinating the development speed of land urbanization and population urbanization effectively, and strengthening the construction of carbon sink. PMID:24782666

Empirical research on decoupling relationship between energy-related carbon emission and economic growth in Guangdong province based on extended Kaya identity.

PubMed

Wang, Wenxiu; Kuang, Yaoqiu; Huang, Ningsheng; Zhao, Daiqing

2014-01-01

The decoupling elasticity decomposition quantitative model of energy-related carbon emission in Guangdong is established based on the extended Kaya identity and Tapio decoupling model for the first time, to explore the decoupling relationship and its internal mechanism between energy-related carbon emission and economic growth in Guangdong. Main results are as follows. (1) Total production energy-related carbon emissions in Guangdong increase from 4128 × 10⁴ tC in 1995 to 14396 × 10⁴ tC in 2011. Decoupling elasticity values of energy-related carbon emission and economic growth increase from 0.53 in 1996 to 0.85 in 2011, and its decoupling state turns from weak decoupling in 1996-2004 to expansive coupling in 2005-2011. (2) Land economic output and energy intensity are the first inhibiting factor and the first promoting factor to energy-related carbon emission decoupling from economic growth, respectively. The development speeds of land urbanization and population urbanization, especially land urbanization, play decisive roles in the change of total decoupling elasticity values. (3) Guangdong can realize decoupling of energy-related carbon emission from economic growth effectively by adjusting the energy mix and industrial structure, coordinating the development speed of land urbanization and population urbanization effectively, and strengthening the construction of carbon sink.

Space Monitoring of urban sprawl

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nole, G.; Lanorte, A.; Murgante, B.; Lasaponara, R.

2012-04-01

Space Monitoring of urban sprawl Gabriele Nolè (1,2), Antonio Lanorte (1), , Beniamino Murgante (2) and Rosa Lasaponara (1) , (1,2) Institute of Methodologies for Environmental Analysis, National Research Council, Italy (2) Laboratory of Urban and Territorial Systems, University of Basilicata, During the last few decades, in many regions throughout the world abandonment of agricultural land has induced a high concentration of people in densely populated urban areas. The deep social, economic and environmental changes have caused strong and extensive land cover changes. This is regarded as a pressing issue that calls for a clear understanding of the ongoing trends and future urban expansion. The main issue of great importance in modelling urban growth includes spatial and temporal dynamics, scale dynamics, man-induced land use changes. Although urban growth is perceived as necessary for a sustainable economy, uncontrolled or sprawling urban growth can cause various problems, such as, the loss of open space, landscape alteration, environmental pollution, traffic congestion, infrastructure pressure, and other social and economical issues. To face these drawbacks, a continuous monitoring of the urban growth evolution in terms of type and extent of changes over time are essential for supporting planners and decision makers in future urban planning. A critical point for the understanding and monitoring urban expansion processes is the availability of both (i) time-series data set and (ii) updated information relating to the current urban spatial structure a to define and locate the evolution trends. In such a context, an effective contribution can be offered by satellite remote sensing technologies, which are able to provide both historical data archive and up-to-date imagery. Satellite technologies represent a cost-effective mean for obtaining useful data that can be easily and systematically updated for the whole globe. Nowadays medium resolution satellite images, such as Landsat TM or ASTER can be downloaded free of charge from the NASA web site. The use of satellite imagery along with robust data analysis techniques can be used for the monitoring and planning purposes as these enable the reporting of ongoing trends of urban growth at a detailed level. Nevertheless, the exploitation of satellite Earth Observation in the field of the urban growth monitoring is a relatively new tool, although during the last three decades great efforts have been addressed to the application of remote sensing in detecting land use and land cover changes using a number of data analyses, such as: (i) Spectral enhancement based on vegetation index differencing, principal component analysis, Image differencing and visual interpretation and/or classification, (ii) post-classification change differencing and a combination of image enhancement and post-classification comparison, (iii) mixture analysis, (iv) artificial neural networks, (v) landscape metrics (patchiness and map density) and (vi) the integration of geographical information system and remote sensing data. In this paper a comparison of the methods listed before is carried out using satellite time series made up of Landsat MSS, TM, ETM+ASTER for some test areas selected in South of Italy and Cairo in order to extract and quantify urban sprawl and its spatial and temporal feature patterns.

A comparative analysis of vaccine administration in urban and non-urban skilled nursing facilities.

PubMed

Pu, Yuan; Dolar, Veronika; Gucwa, Azad L

2016-07-29

The U.S. population is aging at an unprecedented rate, resulting in an increased demand for skilled nursing facilities (SNFs) and long-term care. Residents of these facilities are at a high risk for pneumococcal disease or severe influenza-related illnesses and death. For these reasons, the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services use influenza and pneumococcal vaccination rates as a quality measure in the assessment of SNFs, as complications related to these infections increase morbidity and mortality rates. Disparities have been reported amongst vaccination with increased rates in urban areas as compared to their non-urban counterparts. Statistical analyses were performed to compare influenza and pneumococcal vaccination in urban and non-urban SNFs to determine variables that may influence vaccination status. Of the 15,639 nursing homes included in the study, 10,107 were in urban areas, while 5532 were considered non-urban. We found the percent of eligible and willing residents with up-to-date influenza and pneumococcal vaccinations increased with overall five-star ratings of SNFs. Somewhat paradoxically, although urban SNFs had higher mean overall five-star ratings, they showed lower rates of influenza and pneumococcal vaccination compared to non-urban SNFs. Ordinary least squares regression analysis comparing overall ratings, type of ownership, and geographic location by region yielded statistically significant results in which the overall rating, ownership-type and certificate-type favored urban SNFs (p < 0.001). This is the first systematic and comparative analysis to use the Nursing Home Compare database to assess vaccine administration of urban and non-urban SNFs. The findings of this study may be used to encourage the development of programs to improve vaccination rates and the quality of care in these facilities.

Modeling fractal cities using the correlated percolation model.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Makse, Hernán A.; Havlin, Shlomo; Stanley, H. Eugene

1996-03-01

Cities grow in a way that might be expected to resemble the growth of two-dimensional aggregates of particles, and this has led to recent attempts to model urban growth using ideas from the statistical physics of clusters. In particular, the model of diffusion limited aggregation (DLA) has been invoked to rationalize the apparently fractal nature of urban morphologies(M. Batty and P. Longley, Fractal Cities) (Academic, San Diego, 1994). The DLA model predicts that there should exist only one large fractal cluster, which is almost perfectly screened from incoming 'development units' (representing, for example, people, capital or resources), so that almost all of the cluster growth takes place at the tips of the cluster's branches. We show that an alternative model(H. A. Makse, S. Havlin, H. E. Stanley, Nature 377), 608 (1995), in which development units are correlated rather than being added to the cluster at random, is better able to reproduce the observed morphology of cities and the area distribution of sub-clusters ('towns') in an urban system, and can also describe urban growth dynamics. Our physical model, which corresponds to the correlated percolation model in the presence of a density gradient, is motivated by the fact that in urban areas development attracts further development. The model offers the possibility of predicting the global properties (such as scaling behavior) of urban morphologies.

Newborn healthcare in urban India

PubMed Central

Sharma, J; Osrin, D; Patil, B; Neogi, S B; Chauhan, M; Khanna, R; Kumar, R; Paul, V K; Zodpey, S

2016-01-01

The rapid population growth in urban India has outpaced the municipal capacity to build essential infrastructures that make life in cities safe and healthy. Local and national governments alike are grappling with the challenges of urbanization with thousands migrating from villages to cities. Thus, urbanization in India has been accompanied by a concentration of poverty and urban public healthcare has emerged as one of the most pressing priorities facing our country. Newborn mortality rates in urban settings are lower than rural areas, early neonatal deaths account for greater proportion than late neonatal deaths. The available evidence suggests that socio-economic inequalities and poor environment pose major challenges for newborn health. Moreover, fragmented and weak public health system, multiplicity of actors and limited capacity of public health planning further constrain the delivery of quality and affordable health care service. Though healthcare is concentrated in urban areas, delay in deciding to seek health care, reaching a source of it and receiving appropriate care affects the health outcomes disproportionately. However, a few city initiatives and innovations piloted in different states and cities have brought forth the evidences of effectiveness of different strategies. Recently launched National Urban Health Mission (NUHM) provides an opportunity for strategic thinking and actions to improve newborn health outcomes in India. There is also an opportunity for coalescence of activities around National Health Mission (NHM) and Reproductive, Maternal, Newborn and Child Health+Adolescent (RMNCH+A) strategy to develop feasible and workable models in different urban settings. Concomitant operational research needs to be carried out so that the obstacles, approaches and response to the program can be understood. PMID:27924107

Newborn healthcare in urban India.

PubMed

Sharma, J; Osrin, D; Patil, B; Neogi, S B; Chauhan, M; Khanna, R; Kumar, R; Paul, V K; Zodpey, S

2016-12-01

The rapid population growth in urban India has outpaced the municipal capacity to build essential infrastructures that make life in cities safe and healthy. Local and national governments alike are grappling with the challenges of urbanization with thousands migrating from villages to cities. Thus, urbanization in India has been accompanied by a concentration of poverty and urban public healthcare has emerged as one of the most pressing priorities facing our country. Newborn mortality rates in urban settings are lower than rural areas, early neonatal deaths account for greater proportion than late neonatal deaths. The available evidence suggests that socio-economic inequalities and poor environment pose major challenges for newborn health. Moreover, fragmented and weak public health system, multiplicity of actors and limited capacity of public health planning further constrain the delivery of quality and affordable health care service. Though healthcare is concentrated in urban areas, delay in deciding to seek health care, reaching a source of it and receiving appropriate care affects the health outcomes disproportionately. However, a few city initiatives and innovations piloted in different states and cities have brought forth the evidences of effectiveness of different strategies. Recently launched National Urban Health Mission (NUHM) provides an opportunity for strategic thinking and actions to improve newborn health outcomes in India. There is also an opportunity for coalescence of activities around National Health Mission (NHM) and Reproductive, Maternal, Newborn and Child Health+Adolescent (RMNCH+A) strategy to develop feasible and workable models in different urban settings. Concomitant operational research needs to be carried out so that the obstacles, approaches and response to the program can be understood.

Causes and Disparities in Death Rates Among Urban American Indian and Alaska Native Populations, 1999-2009.

PubMed

Jacobs-Wingo, Jasmine L; Espey, David K; Groom, Amy V; Phillips, Leslie E; Haverkamp, Donald S; Stanley, Sandte L

2016-05-01

To characterize the leading causes of death for the urban American Indian/Alaska Native (AI/AN) population and compare with urban White and rural AI/AN populations. We linked Indian Health Service patient registration records with the National Death Index to reduce racial misclassification in death certificate data. We calculated age-adjusted urban AI/AN death rates for the period 1999-2009 and compared those with corresponding urban White and rural AI/AN death rates. The top-5 leading causes of death among urban AI/AN persons were heart disease, cancer, unintentional injury, diabetes, and chronic liver disease and cirrhosis. Compared with urban White persons, urban AI/AN persons experienced significantly higher death rates for all top-5 leading causes. The largest disparities were for diabetes and chronic liver disease and cirrhosis. In general, urban and rural AI/AN persons had the same leading causes of death, although urban AI/AN persons had lower death rates for most conditions. Urban AI/AN persons experience significant disparities in death rates compared with their White counterparts. Public health and clinical interventions should target urban AI/AN persons to address behaviors and conditions contributing to health disparities.

Quantitative Analysis of Intra Urban Growth Modeling using socio economic agents by combining cellular automata model with agent based model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Singh, V. K.; Jha, A. K.; Gupta, K.; Srivastav, S. K.

2017-12-01

Recent studies indicate that there is a significant improvement in the urban land use dynamics through modeling at finer spatial resolutions. Geo-computational models such as cellular automata and agent based model have given evident proof regarding the quantification of the urban growth pattern with urban boundary. In recent studies, socio- economic factors such as demography, education rate, household density, parcel price of the current year, distance to road, school, hospital, commercial centers and police station are considered to the major factors influencing the Land Use Land Cover (LULC) pattern of the city. These factors have unidirectional approach to land use pattern which makes it difficult to analyze the spatial aspects of model results both quantitatively and qualitatively. In this study, cellular automata model is combined with generic model known as Agent Based Model to evaluate the impact of socio economic factors on land use pattern. For this purpose, Dehradun an Indian city is selected as a case study. Socio economic factors were collected from field survey, Census of India, Directorate of economic census, Uttarakhand, India. A 3X3 simulating window is used to consider the impact on LULC. Cellular automata model results are examined for the identification of hot spot areas within the urban area and agent based model will be using logistic based regression approach where it will identify the correlation between each factor on LULC and classify the available area into low density, medium density, high density residential or commercial area. In the modeling phase, transition rule, neighborhood effect, cell change factors are used to improve the representation of built-up classes. Significant improvement is observed in the built-up classes from 84 % to 89 %. However after incorporating agent based model with cellular automata model the accuracy improved from 89 % to 94 % in 3 classes of urban i.e. low density, medium density and commercial classes. Sensitivity study of the model indicated that southern and south-west part of the city have shown improvement and small patches of growth are also observed in the north western part of the city.The study highlights the growing importance of socio economic factors and geo-computational modeling approach on changing LULC of newly growing cities of modern India.

Probabilistic Impact Assessment of Domestic Rainwater Harvesting in Urban Slums: West Africa Case Study

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cowden, J. R.; Watkins, D. W.; Mihelcic, J. R.; Fry, L. M.

2007-12-01

Urban populations now exceed rural populations worldwide, creating unique challenges in providing basic services, especially in developing countries where informal or illegal settlements grow in peri-urban areas. West Africa is an acute example of the problems created by rapid urban growth, with high levels of urban poverty and low water and sanitation access rates. Although considerable effort has been made in providing improved water access and urban services to slum communities, research indicates that clean water access rates are not keeping up with urbanization rates in several areas of the world and that rapidly growing slum communities are beginning to overwhelm many prior water improvements projects. In the face of these challenges, domestic rainwater harvesting is proposed as a technologically appropriate and economically viable option for enhancing water supplies to urban slum households. However, assessing the reliability, potential health impacts, and overall cost-effectiveness of these systems on a regional level is difficult for several reasons. First, long daily rainfall records are not readily available in much of the developing world, including many regions of sub-Saharan Africa. Second, significant uncertainties exist in the relevant cost, water use, and health data. Third, to estimate the potential future impacts at the regional scale, various global change scenarios should be investigated. Finally, in addition to these technical challenges, there is also a need to develop relatively simple and transparent assessment methods for informing policy makers. A procedure is presented for assessment of domestic rainwater harvesting systems using a combination of scenario, sensitivity, and trade-off analyses. Using data from West Africa, simple stochastic weather models are developed to generate rainfall sequences for the region, which are then used to estimate the reliability of providing a range of per capita water supplies. Next, a procedure is proposed for quantifying the health impacts of improved water supplies, and sensitivity analysis of cost and health data provides an indication of cost- effectiveness. Climate change impacts are assessed via weather model parameter adjustment according to statistical downscaling of general circulation model output. Future work involving the interpolation of model parameters to ungaged sites, incorporation of additional global change scenarios (e.g., population, emissions), and extension of the procedure to a full Monte Carlo analysis will be discussed as time allows.

Total Water Management, the New Paradigm for Urban Water Systems

EPA Science Inventory

There is a growing need for urban water managers to take a more holistic view of their water resource systems as population growth, urbanization, and current resource management practices put different stresses on local water resources and urban infrastructure. Total Water Manag...

Total Water Management: The New Paradigm for Urban Water Resources Planning

EPA Science Inventory

There is a growing need for urban water managers to take a more holistic view of their water resource systems as population growth, urbanization, and current resource management practices put different stresses on local water resources and urban infrastructure. Total Water Manag...

24 CFR 599.303 - Rating of applications.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-04-01

... the area poverty rate, area unemployment rate, and for urban areas, the percentage of families below... 24 Housing and Urban Development 3 2010-04-01 2010-04-01 false Rating of applications. 599.303 Section 599.303 Housing and Urban Development Regulations Relating to Housing and Urban Development...

Urban Growth Detection Using Filtered Landsat Dense Time Trajectory in an Arid City

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ye, Z.; Schneider, A.

2014-12-01

Among all remote sensing environment monitoring techniques, time series analysis of biophysical index is drawing increasing attention. Although many of them studied forest disturbance and land cover change detection, few focused on urban growth mapping at medium spatial resolution. As Landsat archive becomes open accessible, methods using Landsat time-series imagery to detect urban growth is possible. It is found that a time trajectory from a newly developed urban area shows a dramatic drop of vegetation index. This enable the utilization of time trajectory analysis to distinguish impervious surface and crop land that has a different temporal biophysical pattern. Also, the time of change can be estimated, yet many challenges remain. Landsat data has lower temporal resolution, which may be worse when cloud-contaminated pixels and SLC-off effect exist. It is difficult to tease apart intra-annual, inter-annual, and land cover difference in a time series. Here, several methods of time trajectory analysis are utilized and compared to find a computationally efficient and accurate way on urban growth detection. A case study city, Ankara, Turkey is chosen for its arid climate and various landscape distributions. For preliminary research, Landsat TM and ETM+ scenes from 1998 to 2002 are chosen. NDVI, EVI, and SAVI are selected as research biophysical indices. The procedure starts with a seasonality filtering. Only areas with seasonality need to be filtered so as to decompose seasonality and extract overall trend. Harmonic transform, wavelet transform, and a pre-defined bell shape filter are used to estimate the overall trend in the time trajectory for each pixel. The point with significant drop in the trajectory is tagged as change point. After an urban change is detected, forward and backward checking is undertaken to make sure it is really new urban expansion other than short time crop fallow or forest disturbance. The method proposed here can capture most of the urban growth during research time period, although the accuracy of time point determination is a bit lower than this. Results from several biophysical indices and filtering methods are similar. Some fallows and bare lands in arid area are easily confused with urban impervious surface.

Urban Growth Modeling Using Cellular Automata with Multi-Temporal Remote Sensing Images Calibrated by the Artificial Bee Colony Optimization Algorithm.

PubMed

Naghibi, Fereydoun; Delavar, Mahmoud Reza; Pijanowski, Bryan

2016-12-14

Cellular Automata (CA) is one of the most common techniques used to simulate the urbanization process. CA-based urban models use transition rules to deliver spatial patterns of urban growth and urban dynamics over time. Determining the optimum transition rules of the CA is a critical step because of the heterogeneity and nonlinearities existing among urban growth driving forces. Recently, new CA models integrated with optimization methods based on swarm intelligence algorithms were proposed to overcome this drawback. The Artificial Bee Colony (ABC) algorithm is an advanced meta-heuristic swarm intelligence-based algorithm. Here, we propose a novel CA-based urban change model that uses the ABC algorithm to extract optimum transition rules. We applied the proposed ABC-CA model to simulate future urban growth in Urmia (Iran) with multi-temporal Landsat images from 1997, 2006 and 2015. Validation of the simulation results was made through statistical methods such as overall accuracy, the figure of merit and total operating characteristics (TOC). Additionally, we calibrated the CA model by ant colony optimization (ACO) to assess the performance of our proposed model versus similar swarm intelligence algorithm methods. We showed that the overall accuracy and the figure of merit of the ABC-CA model are 90.1% and 51.7%, which are 2.9% and 8.8% higher than those of the ACO-CA model, respectively. Moreover, the allocation disagreement of the simulation results for the ABC-CA model is 9.9%, which is 2.9% less than that of the ACO-CA model. Finally, the ABC-CA model also outperforms the ACO-CA model with fewer quantity and allocation errors and slightly more hits.

Urban Growth Modeling Using Cellular Automata with Multi-Temporal Remote Sensing Images Calibrated by the Artificial Bee Colony Optimization Algorithm

PubMed Central

Naghibi, Fereydoun; Delavar, Mahmoud Reza; Pijanowski, Bryan

2016-01-01

Cellular Automata (CA) is one of the most common techniques used to simulate the urbanization process. CA-based urban models use transition rules to deliver spatial patterns of urban growth and urban dynamics over time. Determining the optimum transition rules of the CA is a critical step because of the heterogeneity and nonlinearities existing among urban growth driving forces. Recently, new CA models integrated with optimization methods based on swarm intelligence algorithms were proposed to overcome this drawback. The Artificial Bee Colony (ABC) algorithm is an advanced meta-heuristic swarm intelligence-based algorithm. Here, we propose a novel CA-based urban change model that uses the ABC algorithm to extract optimum transition rules. We applied the proposed ABC-CA model to simulate future urban growth in Urmia (Iran) with multi-temporal Landsat images from 1997, 2006 and 2015. Validation of the simulation results was made through statistical methods such as overall accuracy, the figure of merit and total operating characteristics (TOC). Additionally, we calibrated the CA model by ant colony optimization (ACO) to assess the performance of our proposed model versus similar swarm intelligence algorithm methods. We showed that the overall accuracy and the figure of merit of the ABC-CA model are 90.1% and 51.7%, which are 2.9% and 8.8% higher than those of the ACO-CA model, respectively. Moreover, the allocation disagreement of the simulation results for the ABC-CA model is 9.9%, which is 2.9% less than that of the ACO-CA model. Finally, the ABC-CA model also outperforms the ACO-CA model with fewer quantity and allocation errors and slightly more hits. PMID:27983633

77 FR 52279 - Wireline Competition Bureau Seeks Comment on Proposed Urban Rates Survey and Issues Relating to...

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2012-08-29

... Competition Bureau Seeks Comment on Proposed Urban Rates Survey and Issues Relating to Reasonable... urban rates for fixed voice and fixed broadband residential services. The Bureau also seeks comment concerning how, using data from the urban rates survey, to determine the local voice rate floor and the...

SMART GROWTH LAND USE PLANNING FOR A COMMUNITY AT THE RURAL URBAN INTERFACE UTILIZING STRUCTURED PUBLIC INVOLVEMENT

EPA Science Inventory

A. Simpson County, KY is facing suburban growth pressure like many communities across the country at the rural urban interface. This presents opportunities and challenges to maintain community identity, build economic diversity, protect environmental resources, and imp...

URBANIZATION EFFECTS ON TREE GROWTH IN THE VICINITY OF NEW YORK CITY

EPA Science Inventory

Plants in urban ecosystems are exposed to many pollutants and higher temperatures, CO2 and nitrogen deposition than plants in rural areas. Although each factor has a detrimental or beneficial influence on plant growth, the net effect of all factors and the key driving variables a...

Space Applications in Support of Future Urban Development in Armenia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Alhaddad, Bahaaeddin; Reppucci, Antonio; Moreno, Laura

2016-08-01

The fast growing of some cities has produced important changes in the urban sectors not always following sustainability criteria. As results, most urban growth falls outside formal planning controls and many cities suffer poor urban services management, traffic, and congestion, loss of green areas, poor air quality, and noise. The main advantages of satellite-based EO products are to support the decision-making process, and the development and operation of smart services. Satellite-based urban morphology analysis can help to identify the transformation of the urban development and evolution. The pilot presented here is a demonstration in the framework of the collaboration between ESA and ADB, called EOTAP "Earth Observation for a Transforming Asia Pacific". Aim of the pilot is to exploit satellite Earth observation data for sustainable growth and help preparing a series of city development and investment plans.

India's population in transition.

PubMed

Visaria, L; Visaria, P

1995-10-01

This demographic profile of India addresses fertility, family planning, and economic issues. India is described as a country shifting from economic policies of self-reliance to active involvement in international trade. Wealth has increased, particularly at higher educational levels, yet 25% still live below the official poverty line and almost 66% of Indian women are illiterate. The government program in family planning, which was instituted during the early 1950s, did not change the rate of natural increase, which remained stable at 2.2% over the past 30 years. 1993 marked the first time the growth rate decline to under 2%. The growth rate in 1995 was 1.9%. The total population is expected double in 36 years. Only Nigeria, Pakistan, and Bangladesh had a higher growth rate and higher fertility in 1995. India is geographically diverse (with the northern Himalayan mountain zone, the central alluvial plains, the western desert region, and the southern peninsula with forest, mountains, and plains). There are regional differences in the fertility rates, which range from replacement level in Kerala and Goa to 5.5 children in Uttar Pradesh. Fertility is expected to decline throughout India due to the slower pace of childbearing among women over the age of 35 years, the increase in contraceptive use, and increases in marriage age. Increased educational levels in India and its state variations are related to lower fertility. Literacy campaigns are considered to be effective means of increasing the educational levels of women. Urbanization is not expected to markedly affect fertility levels. Urban population, which is concentrated in a few large cities, remains a small proportion of total population. Greater shifts are evident in the transition from agriculture to other wage labor. Fertility is expected to decline as women's share of labor force activity increases. The major determinant of fertility decline in India is use of family planning, which has improved in access and use during the 1980s. If India is to keep a stable population under 1.6 billion in the future, Indians may have to accept only one child per family.

Malaysia.

PubMed

1980-10-01

The official government policy in Malaysia is to reduce the rate of population growth through decreasing fertility levels and a program of economic and social restructuring. Population policy was conceived as encompassing wider dimensions than family planning, with emphasis on spatial distribution policies. The first Population and Housing Census was undertaken by the government in 1970. Regular decennial census taking occurred between 1891 and 1957. Birth and death registrations are considered incomplete. Population issues are integrated by various organizations into their ongoing programs such as those of the Ministries of Health, Education or Agriculture. The National Family Planning Board, an interministerial body in the Prime Minister's Department, has input from development planning units. A population studies group was established within the Economic Planning Unit. The total 1980 population was 13,640,000; the rate of population growth was 2.6 from 1975-80. Life expectancy was 61.3. Morbidity and mortality rates have dropped because of disease control and malnutrition reduction. 7.4% of the population are foreign born. Spatial distribution is to be adjusted through rural land development and resettlement; promotion of industrial development in low-income states; development of new growth centers and towns; and, urban development and renewal.

Urban forests for sustainable urban development

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sundara, Denny M.; Hartono, Djoko M.; Suganda, Emirhadi; Haeruman, S. Herman J.

2017-11-01

This paper explores the development of the urban forest in East Jakarta. By 2030 Jakarta area has a target of 30% green area covering 19,845 hectares, including urban forest covering an area of 4,631 hectares. In 2015, the city forest is only 646 hectares, while the city requires 3,985 hectares of new land Urban forest growth from year to year showed a marked decrease with increasing land area awoke to commercial functions, environmental conditions encourage the development of the city to become unsustainable. This research aims to support sustainable urban development and ecological balance through the revitalization of green areas and urban development. Analytical methods for urban forest area is calculated based on the amount of CO2 that comes from people, vehicles, and industrial. Urban spatial analysis based on satellite image data, using a GIS program is an analysis tool to determine the distribution and growth patterns of green areas. This paper uses a dynamic system model to simulate the conditions of the region against intervention to be performed on potential areas for development of urban forests. The result is a model urban forest area is integrated with a social and economic function to encourage the development of sustainable cities.

Approaches to simulating the “March of Bricks and Mortar”

USGS Publications Warehouse

Goldstein, Noah Charles; Candau, J.T.; Clarke, K.C.

2004-01-01

Re-creation of the extent of urban land use at different periods in time is valuable for examining how cities grow and how policy changes influence urban dynamics. To date, there has been little focus on the modeling of historical urban extent (other than for ancient cities). Instead, current modeling research has emphasized simulating the cities of the future. Predictive models can provide insights into urban growth processes and are valuable for land-use and urban planners, yet historical trends are largely ignored. This is unfortunate since historical data exist for urban areas and can be used to quantitatively test dynamic models and theory. We maintain that understanding the growth dynamics of a region's past allows more intelligent forecasts of its future. We compare using a spatio-temporal interpolation method with an agent-based simulation approach to recreate the urban extent of Santa Barbara, California, annually from 1929 to 2001. The first method uses current yet incomplete data on the construction of homes in the region. The latter uses a Cellular Automata based model, SLEUTH, to back- or hind-cast the urban extent. The success at historical urban growth reproduction of the two approaches used in this work was quantified for comparison. The performance of each method is described, as well as the utility of each model in re-creating the history of Santa Barbara. Additionally, the models’ assumptions about space are contrasted. As a consequence, we propose that both approaches are useful in historical urban simulations, yet the cellular approach is more flexible as it can be extended for spatio-temporal extrapolation.

[Speech by Oscar Julian Bardeci, director of the Centro Latinoamericano de Demografia (CELADE), at the Latinamerican Regional Meeting prior to the International Conference on Population in recognition of the Second Meeting on Population by the Committee of Upper-Level Government Experts (CEGAN), Havana, Cuba, November 16-19, 1983].

PubMed

Bardeci, O J

1983-12-01

This work examines the relationship between population growth and economic development in Latin America and assesses progress in the 10 years since the Bucharest World Population Conference. The Latin American population increased from about 159 million in 1950 to 275 million in 1970 and around 325 million in 1980. The rate of growth reached a maximum of 2.8%/year in the early 1970s and has now declined to about 2.3%/year. The regional growth rate is a product of population dynamics that differ greatly in individual countries. Crude birth rates declined in every country of Latin America between 1975-80, but still exceeded 40/1000 in 1980-85 in Bolivia, Ecuador, El Salvador, Haiti, Honduras, and Nicaragua. Current fertility is the result of the different trajectories of the demographic transition in different countries. While fertility in Argentina, Cuba, and Uruguay underwent a slow but sustained decline that began prior to 1960, other countries including Colombia, Costa Rica, Chile, and Venezuela began an accelerated fertility decline in the 1960s that diffused rapidly through all age and social groups. Other countries have still not entered a definite phase of fertility decline. Mortality rates have declined appreciably in Latin America in the past few decades although they remain high in some countries. After the end of World War II and until the mid-1970s, most countries of the region experienced rapid economic growth coupled with profound changes in the productive structure. The industrial labor force grew in almost all countries along with urbanization, the decline of agricultural employment, and the increase of the tertiary sector. These and other important economic advances through the mid-1970s occurred despite rapid population growth, and the beginning of the fertility decline coincided with slowing economic growth that saw negative rates in 1981-82. Various studies have shown that not all population sectors were incorporated in the process of economic and social development. The proportion of the population in active age groups has increased dramatically, but no corresponding increase in employment opportunities has occurred. The informal sector has absorbed most of the excess growth, a trend reflected in the exclusion of a large segment of the population from the fruits of economic progress. Population growth and increased life expectancy have created demands for more retirement benefits, health and educational services, transportation, recreation, and housing. Nevertheless, it cannot be concluded that rapid population growth necessarily has negative consequences for economic development or social welfare. There are indications that the problem of poverty in Latin America could be solved if the political will to do so existed; obstacles to overcoming poverty are not primarily material or population-related. Urbanization, settlement of marginal areas, and relative decline of agricultural areas are 3 trends in spatial distribution of varying intensity and repercussions in different countries.

Estimating the effects of 17α-ethinylestradiol on stochastic population growth rate of fathead minnows: a population synthesis of empirically derived vital rates

USGS Publications Warehouse

Schwindt, Adam R.; Winkelman, Dana L.

2016-01-01

Urban freshwater streams in arid climates are wastewater effluent dominated ecosystems particularly impacted by bioactive chemicals including steroid estrogens that disrupt vertebrate reproduction. However, more understanding of the population and ecological consequences of exposure to wastewater effluent is needed. We used empirically derived vital rate estimates from a mesocosm study to develop a stochastic stage-structured population model and evaluated the effect of 17α-ethinylestradiol (EE2), the estrogen in human contraceptive pills, on fathead minnow Pimephales promelas stochastic population growth rate. Tested EE2 concentrations ranged from 3.2 to 10.9 ng L−1 and produced stochastic population growth rates (λ S ) below 1 at the lowest concentration, indicating potential for population decline. Declines in λ S compared to controls were evident in treatments that were lethal to adult males despite statistically insignificant effects on egg production and juvenile recruitment. In fact, results indicated that λ S was most sensitive to the survival of juveniles and female egg production. More broadly, our results document that population model results may differ even when empirically derived estimates of vital rates are similar among experimental treatments, and demonstrate how population models integrate and project the effects of stressors throughout the life cycle. Thus, stochastic population models can more effectively evaluate the ecological consequences of experimentally derived vital rates.

Are urban children really healthier? Evidence from 47 developing countries.

PubMed

Van de Poel, Ellen; O'Donnell, Owen; Van Doorslaer, Eddy

2007-11-01

On average, child health outcomes are better in urban than in rural areas of developing countries. Understanding the nature and the causes of this rural-urban disparity is essential in contemplating the health consequences of the rapid urbanization taking place throughout the developing world and in targeting resources appropriately to raise population health. Using micro-data on child health taken from the most recent Demographic and Health Surveys for 47 developing countries, the purpose of this paper is threefold. First, we document the magnitude of rural-urban disparities in child nutritional status and under-5 mortality across all 47 developing countries. Second, we adjust these disparities for differences in population characteristics across urban and rural settings. Third, we examine rural-urban differences in the degree of socioeconomic inequality in these health outcomes. The results demonstrate that there are considerable rural-urban differences in mean child health outcomes in the entire developing world. The rural-urban gap in stunting does not entirely mirror the gap in under-5 mortality. The most striking difference between the two is in the Latin American and Caribbean region, where the gap in growth stunting is more than 1.5 times higher than that in mortality. On average, the rural-urban risk ratios of stunting and under-5 mortality fall by, respectively, 53% and 59% after controlling for household wealth. Controlling thereafter for socio-demographic factors reduces the risk ratios by another 22% and 25%. We confirm earlier findings of higher socioeconomic inequality in stunting in urban areas and demonstrate that this also holds for under-5 mortality. In a considerable number of countries, the urban poor actually have higher rates of stunting and mortality than their rural counterparts. The findings imply that there is a need for programs that target the urban poor, and that this is becoming more necessary as the size of the urban population grows.

A prediction of the trend of population development in urban and rural areas in China.

PubMed

Hu, Y

1998-01-01

This study predicts trends in population growth, urbanization, and age structure in China. Data were obtained from the 1990 Census. Population totaled 1.22 billion at the end of 1996. The fertility model predicts future fertility by variant and parity; parameters are provided in a table. High, medium, and low fertility variants, respectively, are based on the total regressive fertility rates (TRFR) of 2.23, 1.9, and 1.6. The medium variant assumes 2 children in rural areas. The low variant is ideal and assumes no third parity in rural areas. Urbanization means an annual average increase of 0.5% after 1996 at pace I and 0.8% at pace II. Urban population will be 57.8% of total population by 2050. Under these three variants, population size in 2000 will be 898 million in rural and 403 million in urban areas, 869 million in rural and 400 million in urban areas, and 856 million in rural and 398 million in urban areas, respectively. Population will peak at 1.7 billion in 2050, at 1.48 billion in 2033, and at 1.38 billion in 2023, respectively. During the period 2000-2020, about 10-14 million rural migrants will move to urban areas; 10 million will move thereafter. The elderly aged over 60 years will reach 7% by 2000 and 20% by 2040. Rural population will age faster than urban population. The working age population will reach 775 million in 2000, peak at 868 million in 2016, and will always be over 60% of total population. School-age population will amount to over 300 million by 2030. Young population will always be more than 25% in rural areas, which is nearly 17 percentage points higher than in urban areas.

Dynamic modeling of Tampa Bay urban development using parallel computing

USGS Publications Warehouse

Xian, G.; Crane, M.; Steinwand, D.

2005-01-01

Urban land use and land cover has changed significantly in the environs of Tampa Bay, Florida, over the past 50 years. Extensive urbanization has created substantial change to the region's landscape and ecosystems. This paper uses a dynamic urban-growth model, SLEUTH, which applies six geospatial data themes (slope, land use, exclusion, urban extent, transportation, hillside), to study the process of urbanization and associated land use and land cover change in the Tampa Bay area. To reduce processing time and complete the modeling process within an acceptable period, the model is recoded and ported to a Beowulf cluster. The parallel-processing computer system accomplishes the massive amount of computation the modeling simulation requires. SLEUTH calibration process for the Tampa Bay urban growth simulation spends only 10 h CPU time. The model predicts future land use/cover change trends for Tampa Bay from 1992 to 2025. Urban extent is predicted to double in the Tampa Bay watershed between 1992 and 2025. Results show an upward trend of urbanization at the expense of a decline of 58% and 80% in agriculture and forested lands, respectively.

Growth Type and Functional Trajectories: An Empirical Study of Urban Expansion in Nanjing, China

PubMed Central

Yuan, Feng

2016-01-01

Drawing upon the Landsat satellite images of Nanjing from 1985, 1995, 2001, 2007, and 2013, this paper integrates the convex hull analysis and common edge analysis at double scales, and develops a comprehensive matrix analysis to distinguish the different types of urban land expansion. The results show that Nanjing experienced rapid urban expansion, dominated by a mix of residential and manufacturing land from 1985 to 2013, which in turn has promoted Nanjing’s shift from a compact mononuclear city to a polycentric one. Spatial patterns of three specific types of growth, namely infilling, extension, and enclave were quite different in four consecutive periods. These patterns result primarily from the existing topographic constraints, as well as government-oriented urban planning and policies. By intersecting the function maps, we also reveal the functional evolution of newly-developed urban land. Moreover, both self-enhancing and mutual promotion of the newly developed functions are surveyed over the last decade. Our study confirms that the integration of a multi-scale method and multi-perspective analysis, such as the spatiotemporal patterns and functional evolution, helps us to better understand the rapid urban growth in China. PMID:26845155

Retrospect and prospect of China's population.

PubMed

Liu, G

1985-03-01

This discussion of the population of China covers the reproductive pattern and fertility rate, the death pattern and mortality, age-sex structure of the population, population and employment, urbanization, migration, and the aging of the population. During the 1949-83 period, China almost doubled her population with an annual natural growth rate of 19/1000. China's reproductive pattern developed from early childbearing, short birth spacing and many births to later childbearing, longer birth spacing and fewer births. China's total fertility rate (TFR) was 5.8 in 1950 and 2.1 in 1983 with an annual decrease of 3%. The annual national income grew at a rate of 7.1%, while the annual growth rate of population 1.9% from 1950-82. Consequently, the national income per capita increased from 50 yuan in 1950 to 338 yuan in 1982. The major factor responsible for the changes is the remarkable decline in the rural fertility rate. The crude death rate dropped from 27.1/1000 in 1963 to 7.1 in 1983 and the infant mortality rate from 179.4/1000 live births in 1936 to 36.6 in 1981. There was also a significant change in the causes of death. Population aged 0-14 in China account for 33.6%, 15-49 for 51.3%, and 50 and over for 15.1% of the total population. China is in the process of transition from an expansive to a stationary population. The age-dependency ratio declined from 68.6% in 1953 and 79.4% in 1964 to 62.6% in 1982. Sex ratios recorded in the 3 population censuses are 105.99 in 1953, 105.45 in 1964, and 105.46 in 1982. Employment in both collective and individual economies did not expand until 1978. Sectoral, occupational, and industrial structures of population started to change rationally with the adjustment and reform of economic management system in 1978. The strategic stress on the employment of China's economically active population should be shifted from farming to diversified economy and urban industry and commerce, from sectors of industrial-agricultural production to those of non-material production, and from expansion of employment to the rise of employment efficiency. The proportion of urban population in China accounted for 20.8% in 1982 with an annual growth rate of 4% during the 1949-82 period. The 1982 population census reveals that 94.4% of China's population resides on the southeast side of Aihui-Tengchong Line. Compared with the statistics in 1953, there was no notable change of the unbalanced population distribution on each side of the Line over the last 50 years. China is comparatively young in its population age structure. 1982 census data show that there were 49.29 million people at age 65 and over in 1982, representing 4.91% of the whole population. It is estimated from the age composition of 1982 and age-specific mortality rate of 1981 that there will be 88 million elderly persons by 2000, 150 million by 2020, and about 300 million as a maximum around 2040.

Population changes in residential clusters in Japan.

PubMed

Sekiguchi, Takuya; Tamura, Kohei; Masuda, Naoki

2018-01-01

Population dynamics in urban and rural areas are different. Understanding factors that contribute to local population changes has various socioeconomic and political implications. In the present study, we use population census data in Japan to examine contributors to the population growth of residential clusters between years 2005 and 2010. The data set covers the entirety of Japan and has a high spatial resolution of 500 × 500 m2, enabling us to examine population dynamics in various parts of the country (urban and rural) using statistical analysis. We found that, in addition to the area, population density, and age, the shape of the cluster and the spatial distribution of inhabitants within the cluster are significantly related to the population growth rate of a residential cluster. Specifically, the population tends to grow if the cluster is "round" shaped (given the area) and the population is concentrated near the center rather than periphery of the cluster. Combination of the present results and analysis framework with other factors that have been omitted in the present study, such as migration, terrain, and transportation infrastructure, will be fruitful.

Future Climate Prediction of Urban Atmosphere in A Tropical Megacity: Utilization of RCP/SSP Scenarios with an Urban Growth Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Darmanto, N. S.; Varquez, A. C. G.; Kanda, M.; Takakuwa, S.

2016-12-01

Economic development in Southeast Asia megacities leads to rapid transformation into more complicated urban configurations. These configurations, including building geometry, enhance aerodynamic drag thus reducing near-surface wind speeds. Roughness parameters representing building geometry, along with anthropogenic heat emissions, contribute to the formation of urban heat islands (UHI). All these have been reproduced successfully in the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Model coupled with an improved single-layer urban canopy model incorporating a realistic distribution of urban parameters and anthropogenic heat emission in the Jakarta Greater Area. We apply this technology to climate change studies by introducing future urbanization defined by urban sprawl, vertical rise in buildings, and increase anthropogenic heat emission (AHE) due to population changes, into futuristic climate modelling. To simulate 2050s future climate, pseudo-global warming method was used which relied on current and ensembles of 5 CMIP5 GCMs for 2 representative concentration pathways (RCP), 2.6 and 8.5. To determine future urbanization level, 2050 population growth and energy consumption were estimated from shared socioeconomic pathways (SSP). This allows the estimation of future urban sprawl, building geometry, and AHE using the SLEUTH urban growth model and spatial growth assumptions. Two cases representing combinations of RCP and SSP were simulated in WRF: RCP2.6-SSP1 and RCP8.5-SSP3. Each case corresponds to best and worst-case scenarios of implementing adaptation and mitigation strategies, respectively. It was found that 2-m temperature of Jakarta will increase by 0.62°C (RCP2.6) and 1.44°C (RCP8.5) solely from background climate change; almost on the same magnitude as the background temperature increase of RCP2.6 (0.5°C) and RCP8.5 (1.2°C). Compared with previous studies, the result indicates that the effect of climate change on UHI in tropical cities may be lesser than cities located in the mid-latitudes. However, it is expected that the combined effect of urbanization and climate change will result to significant changes on future urban temperature. ACK: This research was supported by the Environment Research and Technology Development Fund (S-14) of the Ministry of the Environment, Japan.

The relationship between poverty and fertility in Peninsular Malaysia: a district analysis.

PubMed

Teo Cheok Chin, P

1989-01-01

An analysis of the poverty-fertility association in Peninsular Malaysia indicates that the decision to replace the 1970 New Economic Policy, aimed at redistributing income, with a policy based on economic growth through foreign investment may create serious demographic problems for the country. Although the country's crude birth rate fell from 40/1000 in 1950 to 30.3/1000 in 1975, the Malays (55%) of the population experienced only a 3% decline in this period and rural-urban differentials in fertility remained. Data from the 1980 Malaysian census on variables related to absolute and relative poverty confirm the serious nature of Malay rural poverty. Stepwise regression models for the urban-rural and Malay-Chinese factors used the following variables: % Malay, household possession dissimilarity index, ratio of Malay to non-Malay workers who are self-employed and unpaid family workers, ratio of Malay to non-Malay who own their housing, education dissimilarity index, employment rate dissimilarity, households with sanitation, households with electricity, households with piped water, per capita expenditures for basic needs, per capita expenditure for redistributing wealth, average education, median age at marriage, female labor force participation, % of child workers, % married, % rural, and % in agriculture. The partial correlation of the Malay-Chinese component with fertility was 0.42 while the urban-rural correlation was 0.33, suggesting that the ethnic factor is operable even in conditions of rural poverty. Urban poverty can be ameliorated by the provision of infrastructural facilities and Chinese poverty is reduced by the level of modernization, while Malay poverty is responsive to income redistribution. Unless the government reconsiders its policy, the high fertility rates in the impoverished, largely Malay, rural northwest, northeast, central, and east parts will persist.

Causes and Disparities in Death Rates Among Urban American Indian and Alaska Native Populations, 1999–2009

PubMed Central

Espey, David K.; Groom, Amy V.; Phillips, Leslie E.; Haverkamp, Donald S.; Stanley, Sandte L.

2016-01-01

Objectives. To characterize the leading causes of death for the urban American Indian/Alaska Native (AI/AN) population and compare with urban White and rural AI/AN populations. Methods. We linked Indian Health Service patient registration records with the National Death Index to reduce racial misclassification in death certificate data. We calculated age-adjusted urban AI/AN death rates for the period 1999–2009 and compared those with corresponding urban White and rural AI/AN death rates. Results. The top-5 leading causes of death among urban AI/AN persons were heart disease, cancer, unintentional injury, diabetes, and chronic liver disease and cirrhosis. Compared with urban White persons, urban AI/AN persons experienced significantly higher death rates for all top-5 leading causes. The largest disparities were for diabetes and chronic liver disease and cirrhosis. In general, urban and rural AI/AN persons had the same leading causes of death, although urban AI/AN persons had lower death rates for most conditions. Conclusions. Urban AI/AN persons experience significant disparities in death rates compared with their White counterparts. Public health and clinical interventions should target urban AI/AN persons to address behaviors and conditions contributing to health disparities. PMID:26890168

Cities and Urban Land Use in Advanced Placement Human Geography.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Ford, Larry R.

2000-01-01

Discusses the cities and urban land use section of the Advanced Placement (AP) human geography course, focusing on the: (1) definitions of urbanism; (2) origin and evolution of cities; (3) functional character of contemporary cities; (4) built environment and social space; and (5) responses to urban growth. (CMK)

Entry-Level Jobs, Mobility, and Urban Minority Unemployment.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Kasarda, John D.

1983-01-01

Documents the extent of urban transportation and entry-level job losses in major cities. Describes the mismatch between educational requisites of newer growth industries and educational background of urban minorities, and highlights the role of this mismatch in the increase in urban minority unemployment and welfare dependency. (EF)

Fertility changes in Latin America in the context of economic uncertainty

PubMed Central

Adsera, Alicia; Menendez, Alicia

2013-01-01

We explored the relation between fertility and the business cycle in Latin America during the last three decades. First, we used aggregate data on fertility rates and economic performance from a panel of 18 nations. Second, we studied these same associations in the transitions to 1st, 2nd, and 3rd births with DHS individual data from ten countries. In general, childbearing declines during downturns. This behaviour is mainly associated to increasing unemployment rather than slowdowns in GPD growth, although we find a positive relationship between first births rates and growth. While periods of unemployment may be a good time to have children because opportunity costs are lower, we find that maternity is reduced or postponed in particular among the most recent cohorts and among urban and more educated women. This is consistent with the idea that, in this context, income effects are dominant. PMID:21213181

Technology in the high entropy world.

PubMed

Tambo, N

2006-01-01

Modern growing society is mainly driven by oils and may be designated "petroleum civilisation". However, the basic energy used to drive the global ecosystem is solar radiation. The amount of fossil energy consumption is minimal in the whole global energy balance. Economic growth is mainly controlled by the fossil (commercial) energy consumption rate in urban areas. Water and sanitation systems are bridging economical activities and global ecosystems. Therefore, vast amounts of high entropy solar energy should always be taken into account in the water industry. Only in urban/industrial areas where most of the GDP is earned, are commercial energy driven systems inevitably introduced with maximum effort for energy saving. A water district concept to ensure appropriate quality use with the least deterioration of the environment is proposed. In other areas, decentralised water and sanitation systems driven on soft energy paths would be recommended. A process and system designed on a high entropy energy system would be the foundation for a future urban metabolic system revolution for when oil-based energy become scarce.

Exposure to Community Violence and the Trajectory of Internalizing and Externalizing Symptoms in a Sample of Low-Income Urban Youth.

PubMed

Taylor, Jeremy J; Grant, Kathryn E; Zulauf, Courtney A; Fowler, Patrick J; Meyerson, David A; Irsheid, Sireen

2018-01-01

This study examined trajectories of psychopathology in a sample of low-income urban youth and tested exposure to community violence as a predictor of these trajectories. Self-report and parent-report survey measures of psychological problems and exposure to community violence were collected annually over 3 years from a sample of 364 fifth- to ninth-grade low-income urban youth (64% female; 95% youth of color). Linear growth models showed that youth experienced declines in both internalizing and externalizing symptoms across adolescence. Exposure to community violence was more strongly associated with externalizing symptoms than with internalizing symptoms but predicted declines in both types of symptoms. Results also indicated that youth reported more internalizing and externalizing symptoms than their parents reported for them. Exposure to community violence may explain unique trajectories of mental health problems among low-income urban youth. In addition, youth efforts to adopt a tough façade in the face of community violence could lead to higher rates of externalizing problems relative to internalizing problems, whereas desensitization processes may better explain reductions in both types of symptoms over time. Finally, youth report may be more valid than parent report in the context of urban poverty.

Urban and rural land use in Puerto Rico

Treesearch

Sebastian Martinuzzi; William A. Gould; Olga M. Ramos Gonzalez; Maya Quinones; Michael E. Jimenez

2008-01-01

We have developed three land use regions for Puerto Rico: Urban, Suburban, and Rural (Gould et al. 2008; Martinuzzi et al. 2007). These three regions can also be considered urban, densely-populated rural, and sparsely-populated rural or as urban and wildland with a wildland-urban interface. The suburban use is the most dynamic in terms of population growth and land...

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Tjade, A.S.

The relationship between urban growth and energy consumption to public transport is analyzed. The main emphasis is upon daily travel in urban areas. Recommendations are made on how different urban functions should be located and developed to minimize the energy consumption for daily travels.

Automatic mapping of urban areas from Landsat data using impervious surface fraction algorithm

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nguyen, S. T.; Chen, C. F.; Chen, C. R.

2014-12-01

Urbanization is a result of aggregation of people in urban areas that can help advance socioeconomic development and pull out people from the poverty line. However, if not monitored well, it can also lead to loss of farmlands, natural forests as well as to societal impacts including burgeoning growth of slums, pollution, and crime. Thus, spatiotemporal information that shapes the urbanization is thus critical to the process of urban planning. The overall objective of this study is to develop an impervious surface fraction algorithm (ISFA) for automatically mapping urban areas from Landsat data. We processed the data for 1986, 2001 and 2014 to trace the multi-decadal spatiotemporal change of Honduran capital city using a three-step procedure: (1) data pre-processing to perform image normalization as well as to produce the difference in the values (DVSS) between the simple ratio (SR) of green and shortwave bands and the soil adjust vegetation index (SAVI), (2) quantification of urban areas using ISFA, and (3) accuracy assessment of mapping results using the ground reference data constructed using land-cover maps and FORMOSAT-2 imagery. The mapping accuracy assessment was performed for 2001 and 2014 by comparing with the ground reference data indicated satisfactory results with the overall accuracies and Kappa coefficients generally higher than 90% and 0.8, respectively. When examining the urbanization between these years, it could be observed that the urban area was significantly expanded from 1986 to 2014, mainly driven by two factors of rapid population growth and socioeconomic development. This study eventually leads to a realization of the merit of using ISFA for multi-decadal monitoring of the urbanization of Honduran capital city from Landsat data. Results from this research can be used by urban planners as a general indicator to quantify urban change and environmental impacts. The methods were thus transferable to monitor urban growth in cities and their peri areas around the world.

Urban growth, climate change, and freshwater availability

PubMed Central

McDonald, Robert I.; Green, Pamela; Balk, Deborah; Fekete, Balazs M.; Revenga, Carmen; Todd, Megan; Montgomery, Mark

2011-01-01

Nearly 3 billion additional urban dwellers are forecasted by 2050, an unprecedented wave of urban growth. While cities struggle to provide water to these new residents, they will also face equally unprecedented hydrologic changes due to global climate change. Here we use a detailed hydrologic model, demographic projections, and climate change scenarios to estimate per-capita water availability for major cities in the developing world, where urban growth is the fastest. We estimate the amount of water physically available near cities and do not account for problems with adequate water delivery or quality. Modeled results show that currently 150 million people live in cities with perennial water shortage, defined as having less than 100 L per person per day of sustainable surface and groundwater flow within their urban extent. By 2050, demographic growth will increase this figure to almost 1 billion people. Climate change will cause water shortage for an additional 100 million urbanites. Freshwater ecosystems in river basins with large populations of urbanites with insufficient water will likely experience flows insufficient to maintain ecological process. Freshwater fish populations will likely be impacted, an issue of special importance in regions such as India's Western Ghats, where there is both rapid urbanization and high levels of fish endemism. Cities in certain regions will struggle to find enough water for the needs of their residents and will need significant investment if they are to secure adequate water supplies and safeguard functioning freshwater ecosystems for future generations. PMID:21444797

A hybrid study of multiple contributors to per capita household CO2 emissions (HCEs) in China.

PubMed

Qu, Jiansheng; Qin, Shanshan; Liu, Lina; Zeng, Jingjing; Bian, Yue

2016-04-01

Given the large expenditures by households on goods and services that contribute a large proportion of global CO2 emissions, increasing attention has been paid to household CO2 emissions (HCEs). However, compared with industrial CO2 emissions, efforts devoted to mitigating HCEs are relatively small. A good understanding of the effects of some driving factors (i.e., urbanization rate, per capita GDP, per capita income/disposable income, Engel coefficient, new energy ratio, carbon intensity, and household size) is urgently needed prior to considering policies for reducing HCEs. Given this, in the study, the direct and indirect per capita HCEs were quantified in rural and urban areas of China over the period 2000-2012. Correlation analysis and gray correlation analysis were initially used to identify the prime drivers of per capita HCEs. Our results showed that per capita income/disposable income, per capita GDP, urbanization rate, and household size were the most significantly correlated with per capita HCEs in rural areas. Moreover, the conjoint effects of the potential driving factors on per capita HCEs were determined by performing principal component regression analysis for all cases. Based on the combined analysis strategies, alternative polices were also examined for controlling and mitigating HCEs growth in China.

Assessments of urban growth in the Tampa Bay watershed using remote sensing data

USGS Publications Warehouse

Xian, G.; Crane, M.

2005-01-01

Urban development has expanded rapidly in the Tampa Bay area of west-central Florida over the past century. A major effect associated with this population trend is transformation of the landscape from natural cover types to increasingly impervious urban land. This research utilizes an innovative approach for mapping urban extent and its changes through determining impervious surfaces from Landsat satellite remote sensing data. By 2002, areas with subpixel impervious surface greater than 10% accounted for approximately 1800 km2, or 27 percent of the total watershed area. The impervious surface area increases approximately three-fold from 1991 to 2002. The resulting imperviousness data are used with a defined suite of geospatial data sets to simulate historical urban development and predict future urban and suburban extent, density, and growth patterns using SLEUTH model. Also examined is the increasingly important influence that urbanization and its associated imperviousness extent have on the individual drainage basins of the Tampa Bay watershed.

Ca-Pri a Cellular Automata Phenomenological Research Investigation: Simulation Results

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Iannone, G.; Troisi, A.

2013-05-01

Following the introduction of a phenomenological cellular automata (CA) model capable to reproduce city growth and urban sprawl, we develop a toy model simulation considering a realistic framework. The main characteristic of our approach is an evolution algorithm based on inhabitants preferences. The control of grown cells is obtained by means of suitable functions which depend on the initial condition of the simulation. New born urban settlements are achieved by means of a logistic evolution of the urban pattern while urban sprawl is controlled by means of the population evolution function. In order to compare model results with a realistic urban framework we have considered, as the area of study, the island of Capri (Italy) in the Mediterranean Sea. Two different phases of the urban evolution on the island have been taken into account: a new born initial growth as induced by geographic suitability and the simulation of urban spread after 1943 induced by the population evolution after this date.

[A tentative discussion on population control in Hangzhou and direction of its development].

PubMed

Gu, Y

1982-07-29

Hangzhou is a city noted for its scenic beauty. In recent years, developments in industrial and agricultural production, cultural and educational improvements, and various constructions have made Hangzhou a more modernized city, and its population growth has become more rapid. According to one estimate, the number of childbearing women in 1987 will increase by 61% over the 1978 figure. With the mechanic (mobility) growth rate being higher than the natural growth rate, a large population is moving into Hangzhou each year, and the problem of overpopulation is becoming increasingly serious. The supply of newly built residences cannot match the demand, and the living standard is declining. Cultural and educational establishments, health care, and public facilities are unable to catch up with the speed of the population growth. Problems such as unemployment, traffic congestion, and environmental pollution are becoming more serious. In order to cope with the overall situation, the natural growth rate of the urban population should be controlled, and every married couple should be urged to have only 1 child. Satellite cities should be established and developed to match the city's economic development. Another necessary step is the redistribution of existing factories and industries inside the city and of the city's population so as to reduce pollution and noise. The increased labor population should receive better care in order to increase their productivity. Work in gardening and services should be encouraged in order to ease the pressure of unemployment and increase the tourist income.

Respiratory performance and grip strength tests in Indian school bodys of different socio-economic status.

PubMed Central

De, A. K.; Debnath, P. K.; Dey, N. K.; Nagchaudhuri, J.

1980-01-01

Physical efficiency tests were performed on urban school boys drawn from high socio-economic status in comparison to rural school boys. The height and weight records of the subjects indicating growing process showed that the rural boys attained less physical growth than their urban counterparts. The Vital Capacity and Peak Expiratory Flow Rate data expressed either per unit of height or body surface area were significantly lower in rual boys. these findings indicated a poor development of the thorax in the rural group. However, the determined grip strengths for both the group were similar. The grip test might reflect improvement of muscle mass in case of rural boys as a result of regular physical activity employing the arm muscles. Images p145-a p145-b PMID:7407454

Migration and nutritional status of Tarahumara schoolchildren from Chihuahua State (México).

PubMed

Benítez-Hernández, Zuliana Paola; De la Torre-Díaz, María de Lourdes; Cervantes-Borunda, Mónica; Hernández-Torres, Rosa Patricia; Cabañas, María Dolores; López-Ejeda, Noemí; Marrodán, María Dolores

2017-01-01

The Tarahumara ethnic group is composed of indigenous people from the Sierra Madre Occidental of Mexico. Conditions of isolation and poverty compel them to migrate to the city in search of better opportunities. This work aims to explore the influence of migration on the growth and nutritional status of Tarahumara schoolchildren. One hundred Tarahumara students were analyzed (50 rural with a mean age of 9.78 ± 1.25 years; 50 urban aged 10.0 ± 1.04 years), comparing anthropometric indicators and body composition (T-Student, U-Mann-Whitney Tests). Twenty percent of rural girls and 35% of rural boys showed stunted growth compared to only 9% of the urban girls (no stunted growth among urban boys). Migrants showed greater body size, skinfold thickness, and fat percentage. Weight excess, understood as an increase in the prevalence of overweight and obesity, was detected in 17.8% of urban boys and 13.6% of urban girls compared to 10.0% of boys and 3.3% of girls of the rural series. Migration reduces stunting and increases adiposity. © 2016 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Measuring the past 20 years of urban-rural land growth in flood-prone areas in the developed Taihu Lake watershed, China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Su, Weizhong

2017-03-01

There is growing interest in using the urban landscape for stormwater management studies, where land patterns and processes can be important controls for the sustainability of urban development and planning. This paper proposes an original index of Major Hazard Oriented Level (MHOL) and investigates the structure distribution, driving factors, and controlling suggestions of urban-rural land growth in flood-prone areas in the Taihu Lake watershed, China. The MHOL of incremental urban-rural land increased from M 31.51 during the years 1985-1995 to M 38.37 during the years 1995-2010 (M for medium structure distribution, and the number for high-hazard value). The index shows that urban-rural land was distributed uniformly in flood hazard levels and tended to move rapidly to high-hazard areas, where 72.68% of incremental urban-rural land was aggregated maximally in new urban districts along the Huning traffic line and the Yangtze River. Thus, the current accelerating growth of new urban districts could account for the ampliative exposure to high-hazard areas. New districts are driven by the powerful link between land financial benefits and political achievements for local governments and the past unsustainable process of "single objective" oriented planning. The correlation categorical analysis of the current development intensity and carrying capacity of hydrological ecosystems for sub-basins was used to determine four types of development areas and provide decision makers with indications on the future watershed-scale subdivision of Major Function Oriented Zoning implemented by the Chinese government.

Integrative assessment of climate change for fast-growing urban areas: Measurement and recommendations for future research

PubMed Central

Haase, Dagmar; Volk, Martin

2017-01-01

Over the 20th century, urbanization has substantially shaped the surface of Earth. With population rapidly shifting from rural locations towards the cities, urban areas have dramatically expanded on a global scale and represent crystallization points of social, cultural and economic assets and activities. This trend is estimated to persist for the next decades, and particularly the developing countries are expected to face rapid urban growth. The management of this growth will require good governance strategies and planning. By threatening the livelihoods, assets and health as foundations of human activities, another major global change contributor, climate change, became an equally important concern of stakeholders. Based on the climate trends observed over the 20th century, and a spatially explicit model of urbanization, this paper investigates the impacts of climate change in relation to different stages of development of urban areas, thus evolving a more integrated perspective on both processes. As a result, an integrative measure of climate change trends and impacts is proposed and estimated for urban areas worldwide. We show that those areas facing major urban growth are to a large extent also hotspots of climate change. Since most of these hotspots are located in the Global South, we emphasize the need for stakeholders to co-manage both drivers of global change. The presented integrative perspective is seen as a starting point to foster such co-management, and furthermore as a means to facilitate communication and knowledge exchange on climate change impacts. PMID:29232695

Integrative assessment of climate change for fast-growing urban areas: Measurement and recommendations for future research.

PubMed

Scheuer, Sebastian; Haase, Dagmar; Volk, Martin

2017-01-01

Over the 20th century, urbanization has substantially shaped the surface of Earth. With population rapidly shifting from rural locations towards the cities, urban areas have dramatically expanded on a global scale and represent crystallization points of social, cultural and economic assets and activities. This trend is estimated to persist for the next decades, and particularly the developing countries are expected to face rapid urban growth. The management of this growth will require good governance strategies and planning. By threatening the livelihoods, assets and health as foundations of human activities, another major global change contributor, climate change, became an equally important concern of stakeholders. Based on the climate trends observed over the 20th century, and a spatially explicit model of urbanization, this paper investigates the impacts of climate change in relation to different stages of development of urban areas, thus evolving a more integrated perspective on both processes. As a result, an integrative measure of climate change trends and impacts is proposed and estimated for urban areas worldwide. We show that those areas facing major urban growth are to a large extent also hotspots of climate change. Since most of these hotspots are located in the Global South, we emphasize the need for stakeholders to co-manage both drivers of global change. The presented integrative perspective is seen as a starting point to foster such co-management, and furthermore as a means to facilitate communication and knowledge exchange on climate change impacts.

Differences in Age-Standardized Mortality Rates for Avoidable Deaths Based on Urbanization Levels in Taiwan, 1971–2008

PubMed Central

Chen, Brian K.; Yang, Chun-Yuh

2014-01-01

The World is undergoing rapid urbanization, with 70% of the World population expected to live in urban areas by 2050. Nevertheless, nationally representative analysis of the health differences in the leading causes of avoidable mortality disaggregated by urbanization level is lacking. We undertake a study of temporal trends in mortality rates for deaths considered avoidable by the Concerted Action of the European Community on Avoidable Mortality for four different levels of urbanization in Taiwan between 1971 and 2008. We find that for virtually all causes of death, age-standardized mortality rates (ASMRs) were lower in more urbanized than less urbanized areas, either throughout the study period, or by the end of the period despite higher rates in urbanized areas initially. Only breast cancer had consistently higher AMSRs in more urbanized areas throughout the 38-year period. Further, only breast cancer, lung cancer, and ischemic heart disease witnessed an increase in ASMRs in one or more urbanization categories. More urbanized areas in Taiwan appear to enjoy better indicators of health outcomes in terms of mortality rates than less urbanized areas. Access to and the availability of rich healthcare resources in urban areas may have contributed to this positive result. PMID:24503974

Total Water Management - Report

EPA Science Inventory

There is a growing need for urban water managers to take a more holistic view of their water resource systems as population growth, urbanization, and current operations put different stresses on the environment and urban infrastructure. Total Water Management (TWM) is an approac...

Projected Impact of Urban Growth on Climate Change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Amato, Federico; Murgante, Beniamino; Martellozzo, Federico

2017-04-01

Human activities on land use such as intensive agricultural techniques and urbanization are generating a number of social and economic benefit for contemporary society. Besides, these phenomena are one of the most significant causes of Land Degradation. Firstly, intensive agriculture is on the one hand creating an advantage in the short-period in terms of food production, while on the other is producing serious long-period problems in terms of loss of ecosystem services, including some important for agriculture itself. Secondly, the rapid growth of urban areas in recent decades is generating deep environmental issues. The World Urbanization Prospect by the United Nations (UN) shows that more than half of the world's population today (54%) lives in urban areas. This figure was only 30% in 1950, and estimates are that it will rise to 66% by 2050. Urban growth is responsible for the increase of air pollution, waste production, energy consumption, and land take. Moreover, the expansion of urban areas is making the problem of urban heat islands more relevant, and studies are proving how land cover changes are among the main factors that affect local microclimates. Consequently, territorial planning will play an important role in the fight to mitigate the effects of climate change, as land cover has a significant impact on the energy exchanges between the earth and the atmosphere. This study couples urban growth simulation models based on cellular automata to multiple linear regression techniques that are used to formulate equations for predicting the effects of simulated urban development on soil surface temperature. The proposed methodology is applied to the case study of the Italian national territory, considering various alternative scenarios of land use changes and of their impact on local surface temperatures. The results show that the areas with the greatest urban pressure might be subject to significant climatic changes due to the increased impact of urban heat island phenomena. This highlights the need to take meaningful action to reverse the trends currently in place concerning the territorial government, with the purpose of creating a renewed political and social context that can reduce Land Degradation phenomena. These assumptions are considered essential to meet the new climate sustainability parameters introduced by the Paris Agreement signed in December 2015.

Water quantity and quality at the urban-rural interface

Treesearch

Ge Sun; B. Graeme Lockaby

2012-01-01

Population growth and urban development dramatically alter natural watershed ecosystem structure and functions and stress water resources. We review studies on the impacts of urbanization on hydrologic and biogeochemical processes underlying stream water quantity and water quality issues, as well as water supply challenges in an urban environment. We conclude that...

Gainesville's urban forest canopy cover

Treesearch

Francisco Escobedo; Jennifer A. Seitz; Wayne Zipperer

2009-01-01

Ecosystem benefits from trees are linked directly to the amount of healthy urban forest canopy cover. Urban forest cover is dynamic and changes over time due to factors such as urban development, windstorms, tree removals, and growth. The amount of a city's canopy cover depends on its land use, climate, and people's preferences. This fact sheet examines how...

Impacts of Urbanization on Flood and Soil Erosion Hazards in Istanbul, Turkey

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Ozacar, Biricik Gozde

2013-01-01

Due to the inappropriate planning and explosive population growth in urban areas, especially in developing countries, sustainable and disaster-safe urbanization has become the most important challenge for governments. Urbanization presents benefits in different ways but has led simultaneously to changes in land use/land cover (LULC), impacting…

Are autonomous cities our urban future?

PubMed

Norman, Barbara

2018-05-29

Cities are rapidly expanding in size, wealth and power, with some now larger than nation states. Smart city solutions and strong global urban networks are developing to manage massive urban growth. However, cities exist within a wider system and it may take more than technological advances, innovation and city autonomy to develop a sustainable urban future.

Strategies for providing healthcare services to street-dwellers in Dhaka city: Evidence from an operations research

PubMed Central

2012-01-01

Background In almost every major urban city, thousands of people live in overcrowded slums, streets, or other public places without any health services. Bangladesh has experienced one of the highest rates of urban population growth in the last three decades compared to the national population growth rate. The numbers of the urban poor and street-dwellers are likely to increase at least in proportion to the overall population growth of the country. The street-dwellers in Bangladesh are extremely vulnerable in terms of their health needs and healthcare-seeking behaviours. In Bangladesh, there is no health service-delivery mechanism targeting this marginalized group of people. This study, therefore, assessed the effectiveness of two models to provide primary healthcare (PHC) services to street-dwellers. Methods This study of experimental pre-post design tested two models, such as static clinic and satellite clinics, for providing PHC services to street-dwellers in the evening through paramedics in Dhaka city during May 2009-April 2010. Both quantitative and qualitative techniques were used for collecting data. Data were analyzed comparing before and after the implementation of the clinics for the assessment of selected health and family-planning indicators using the statistical t-test. Services received from the model l and model 2 clinics were also compared by calculating the absolute difference to determine the relative effectiveness of one model over another. Results The use of healthcare services by the street-dwellers increased at endline compared to baseline in both the model clinic areas, and the difference was highly significant (p < 0.001). Institutional delivery among the female street-dwellers increased at endline compared to baseline in both the clinic areas. The use of family-planning methods among females also significantly (p < 0.001) increased at endline compared to baseline in both the areas. Conclusions As the findings of the study showed the promise of this approach, the strategies could be implemented in all other cities of Bangladesh and in other countries which encounter similar problems. PMID:22694892

The southern megalopolis: using the past to predict the future of urban sprawl in the Southeast U.S.

USGS Publications Warehouse

Terando, Adam; Costanza, Jennifer; Belyea, Curtis; Dunn, Robert R.; McKerrow, Alexa; Collazo, Jaime

2014-01-01

The future health of ecosystems is arguably as dependent on urban sprawl as it is on human-caused climatic warming. Urban sprawl strongly impacts the urban ecosystems it creates and the natural and agro-ecosystems that it displaces and fragments. Here, we project urban sprawl changes for the next 50 years for the fast-growing Southeast U.S. Previous studies have focused on modeling population density, but the urban extent is arguably as important as population density per se in terms of its ecological and conservation impacts. We develop simulations using the SLEUTH urban growth model that complement population-driven models but focus on spatial pattern and extent. To better capture the reach of low-density suburban development, we extend the capabilities of SLEUTH by incorporating street-network information. Our simulations point to a future in which the extent of urbanization in the Southeast is projected to increase by 101% to 192%. Our results highlight areas where ecosystem fragmentation is likely, and serve as a benchmark to explore the challenging tradeoffs between ecosystem health, economic growth and cultural desires.

The Southern Megalopolis: Using the Past to Predict the Future of Urban Sprawl in the Southeast U.S

PubMed Central

Terando, Adam J.; Costanza, Jennifer; Belyea, Curtis; Dunn, Robert R.; McKerrow, Alexa; Collazo, Jaime A.

2014-01-01

The future health of ecosystems is arguably as dependent on urban sprawl as it is on human-caused climatic warming. Urban sprawl strongly impacts the urban ecosystems it creates and the natural and agro-ecosystems that it displaces and fragments. Here, we project urban sprawl changes for the next 50 years for the fast-growing Southeast U.S. Previous studies have focused on modeling population density, but the urban extent is arguably as important as population density per se in terms of its ecological and conservation impacts. We develop simulations using the SLEUTH urban growth model that complement population-driven models but focus on spatial pattern and extent. To better capture the reach of low-density suburban development, we extend the capabilities of SLEUTH by incorporating street-network information. Our simulations point to a future in which the extent of urbanization in the Southeast is projected to increase by 101% to 192%. Our results highlight areas where ecosystem fragmentation is likely, and serve as a benchmark to explore the challenging tradeoffs between ecosystem health, economic growth and cultural desires. PMID:25054329

Urban Cultural Heritage Endangerment: Degradation of historico-cultural landscapes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vaz, Eric; Cabral, Pedro; Caetano, Mário; Painho, Marco; Nijkamp, Peter

2010-05-01

Sustainable development has become one of the great debates of policy-making of the XXI century. The world, is facing unprecedented change following the anthropocentrism of socio-economic growth. However, the commitment of man to ‘transmit to future generations at least the same as had' (ref) seems to be a narrowing, given extensive urban growth, population increase and climate change. However, over the last twenty years, the usage of spatial information systems have brought a positive contribution for better acknowledging the problem of environmental change, and bringing more constructive approaches to planning. Prompted by much research interest in Europe, a broad specter of biodiversity loss models, pollution and environmental degradation algorithms as well as climate change models, have become important tools under the European umbrella. Recognizing the essence of sustainable development, historico-cultural and archaeological regions have a remarkable role in the transformation of landscapes and maintenance of cultural and regional identity. Furthermore, the socio-economic, political-geographic and cultural-scientific history of the dynamics of places and localities on our earth is reflected in their historico-cultural heritage. This patrimony comprises cultural assets, such as old churches, palaces, museums, urban parks, historical architecture of cities, or landscapes of historical interest. Historico-cultural heritage also includes archaeological sites, which sometimes not only have a local value but may have a worldwide significance (e.g. Pompeii). However, massive urban growth is affecting directly the existing historico-cultural resources throughout the European region, and little attention is given to this juxtaposing reality of peri-urban growth and cultural / archaeological heritage preservation. Also, the settling patterns within historico-cultural local clusters follow a similar pattern as current growth tendencies, given the physical conditions of land-use. This brings forth a dichotomy between areas to cope with population increase (and therefore highly probable of urbanization) and regions of valuable historico-cultural and archaeological legacy. To bridge this dichotomy, this paper attempts to provide a methodology for measuring cultural heritage endangerment brought by urban pressure. By using spatial modeling to prompt urban growth combined with archaeological predictive models, composing a secondary layer, a propensity map for areas with extremely high cultural value and where urban growth should be dealt with especial care become evident. Fundamentally, the joined model of Cultural Heritage Endangerment, tackles a recent and unprecedented problem at global level: Committing urban planning to allow the conservation of cultural and archaeological legacy for future generation. In an attempt to abridge the consequences of the decadence of historico-cultural landscapes, the historico-cultural endangerment (HCE) method will be applied to two entirely different regions in the world. On one side, the methodology will be applied on a regional emphasis in the Algarve region in Portugal, addressing the input of maintaining the integrity of archaeological landscapes, and on the other, a local micro-simulation of the Giza Pyramids in Egypt, shall allow to envision a segment of local consequences of urban pressure on irreplaceable monuments. The conclusions of both study-cases abridge the global nature of this problem as well as the importance of HCE implementation at different scales.

Formation and Growth of New Organic Aerosol Particles over the Deepwater Horizon Oil Spill

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Brock, C. A.; Murphy, D. M.; Bahreini, R.; Middlebrook, A. M.; De Gouw, J. A.

2011-12-01

Aerosol size distributions were measured in June 2010 downwind of the surface oil slick produced by the Deepwater Horizon oil spill in the Gulf of Mexico. Rapid condensation of partially oxidized hydrocarbons was responsible for formation of a plume of secondary organic aerosol downwind of the spill region. New particles were nucleated upwind of the freshest surface oil but downwind of oil that surfaced less than 100 hours previously. These new particles grew by condensation at rates of ~20 nm hr-1; preexisting accumulation mode particles grew by ~10 nm hr-1. The gas-phase concentration of a condensing species necessary to support the observed growth rate assuming irreversible adsorption with unit accommodation coefficient is estimated to be ~0.04-0.09 μg m-3 (~3-8 pptv). The ratio of growth rates for newly formed particles to accumulation mode particles was consistent within error limits with irreversible condensation. Because new particle formation did not occur in areas away from the <100 hr-old oil slick, these results indicate that the oxidation products of VOC species, probably C14-C16 compounds, were directly involved in the growth of the new particles. While a unique and extreme environment, the oil spill plume provides insight into similar processes that may occur in urban and industrial areas where petrochemical products are produced and consumed.

Potential for use of environmental factors in urban planning

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Teixeira da Silva, Ricardo; van der Ploeg, Martine; van Delden, Hedwig; Fleskens, Luuk

2016-04-01

Projections for population growth estimate, on top of the current 7.4 billion world population, an increase of 2 billion people for the next 40 years. It is also projected that 66 per cent of the world population in 2050 will live in urban areas. To accommodate the urban population growth cities are changing continuously land cover to urban areas. Such changes are a threat for natural resources and food production systems stability and capability to provide food and other functions. However, little has been done concerning a rational soil management for food production in urban and peri-urban areas. This study focuses on the assessment of soil lost due to urban expansion and discusses the potential loss regarding the quality of the soil for food production and environmental functions. It is relevant to increase the knowledge on the role of soils in peri-urban areas and in the interaction of physical, environmental and social factors. The methodology consists of assessing the soil quality in and around urban and peri-urban areas. It focuses particularly on the physical properties and the environmental factors, for two periods of time and account the potential losses due to urban expansion. This project is on-going, therefore current advances will be presented and will look for a discussion on the contribution of soil quality for decision-making and land management in urban and peri-urban areas.

Physical growth of children and adolescents in China over the past 35 years

PubMed Central

Zong, Xin-Nan

2014-01-01

Abstract Objective To examine if economic development in China correlates with physical growth among Chinese children and adolescents. Methods The height, body weight and physical activity level of children and adolescents aged 18 years and under, as well as dietary data, were obtained from seven large surveys conducted in China between 1975 and 2010. Chinese economic development indicators were obtained from the World Bank. Trends in body weight, height, economic data and diet were examined. Tests were conducted to check for correlations between height at 17 years of age and three indicators of economic development: gross domestic product, urbanization and infant mortality rate. Regional differences in physical growth were assessed. Findings Between 1975 and 2010, the growth of children and adolescents improved in tandem with economic development. The largest increment in height was observed during the period of puberty. Regional inequalities in nutritional status were correlated with disparities in economic development among regions. Over the past two decades, undernutrition declined among children less than 5 years of age, but in 2010 underweight and stunting were still common in poor rural areas. A large increase in obesity was observed in both urban and rural areas, but especially in large cities and, more recently, in small and medium-sized cities and affluent rural areas. Conclusion The average weight of children and adolescents has been increasing progressively since the 1970s. Current strategies to combat both child undernutrition and obesity need to be improved, especially in poor rural areas. PMID:25177070

CO2 dispersion modelling over Paris region within the CO2-MEGAPARIS project

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lac, C.; Donnelly, R. P.; Masson, V.; Pal, S.; Riette, S.; Donier, S.; Queguiner, S.; Tanguy, G.; Ammoura, L.; Xueref-Remy, I.

2013-05-01

Accurate simulation of the spatial and temporal variability of tracer mixing ratios over urban areas is a challenging and interesting task needed to be performed in order to utilise CO2 measurements in an atmospheric inverse framework and to better estimate regional CO2 fluxes. This study investigates the ability of a high-resolution model to simulate meteorological and CO2 fields around Paris agglomeration during the March field campaign of the CO2-MEGAPARIS project. The mesoscale atmospheric model Meso-NH, running at 2 km horizontal resolution, is coupled with the Town Energy Balance (TEB) urban canopy scheme and with the Interactions between Soil, Biosphere and Atmosphere CO2-reactive (ISBA-A-gs) surface scheme, allowing a full interaction of CO2 modelling between the surface and the atmosphere. Statistical scores show a good representation of the urban heat island (UHI) with stronger urban-rural contrasts on temperature at night than during the day by up to 7 °C. Boundary layer heights (BLH) have been evaluated on urban, suburban and rural sites during the campaign, and also on a suburban site over 1 yr. The diurnal cycles of the BLH are well captured, especially the onset time of the BLH increase and its growth rate in the morning, which are essential for tall tower CO2 observatories. The main discrepancy is a small negative bias over urban and suburban sites during nighttime (respectively 45 m and 5 m), leading to a few overestimations of nocturnal CO2 mixing ratios at suburban sites and a bias of +5 ppm. The diurnal CO2 cycle is generally well captured for all the sites. At the Eiffel tower, the observed spikes of CO2 maxima occur every morning exactly at the time at which the atmospheric boundary layer (ABL) growth reaches the measurement height. At suburban ground stations, CO2 measurements exhibit maxima at the beginning and at the end of each night, when the ABL is fully contracted, with a strong spatio-temporal variability. A sensitivity test without urban parameterisation removes the UHI and underpredicts nighttime BLH over urban and suburban sites, leading to large overestimation of nocturnal CO2 mixing ratio at the suburban sites (bias of +17 ppm). The agreement between observation and prediction for BLH and CO2 concentrations and urban-rural increments, both day and night, demonstrates the potential of using the urban mesoscale system in the context of inverse modelling

Characterizing continuous urban growth using composited time-series Landsat data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Song, X. P.; Sexton, J. O.; Huang, C.; Feng, M.; Channan, S.; Baker, M. E.; Townshend, J. R.

2014-12-01

Impervious surfaces are land cover features through which water cannot penetrate into the soil. As an indicator of urban land use, impervious surface cover (ISC) is disproportionally important to human beings-although covering only 0.5% of the Earth's terrestrial surface, cities support over 50% the Earth's population. The increasing demand for built-up space by a growing urban population has been driving land use change in urban areas worldwide. An increase in ISC can significantly impact the biophysical characteristics of land surface, such as altering the local surface energy balance, or transforming regional hydrological systems. Remotely sensed data is commonly used as the primary data source for extracting impervious surface information for monitoring urban growth, but current studies often lack the sufficient temporal resolution or thematic detail to reveal the long-term, nonlinear development of impervious surfaces over time. In a previous study (Sexton et al. 2013), we created an annual stack of 30-m percent ISC estimates for the Washington DC-Baltimore metropolitan region from 1984 to 2010 by compositing all available Landsat images in the USGS archive. Here we developed a robust time-series method to detect impervious surface change. The method employs a customized logistic function for every pixel to model the continuous process of urban growth. It quantifies the fractional intensity of ISC change at the sub-pixel level and also characterizes the timing and length (in years) of urban development. The new method detects change based on a sequence of observations before, during and after change and thus is highly resistant to random noises. Our results showed that the DC-Baltimore metropolitan region experienced an accelerated growth pathway from the late 1980s to the late 2000s. The majority of urban and sub-urban development occurred at scales finer than the Landsat resolution (30 m), with a region-wide mean intensity of 46% ISC increase. Our study demonstrates the value of the long-term and fine temporal resolution data offered by the Landsat archive, and also highlights the possible limitations of Landsat's spatial resolution in characterizing continuous urban development.

A model of urban rational growth based on grey prediction

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Xiao, Wenjing

2017-04-01

Smart growth focuses on building sustainable cities, using compact development to prevent urban sprawl. This paper establishes a series of models to implement smart growth theories into city design. Besides two specific city design cases are shown. Firstly, We establishes Smart Growth Measure Model to measure the success of smart growth of a city. And we use Full Permutation Polygon Synthetic Indicator Method to calculate the Comprehensive Indicator (CI) which is used to measure the success of smart growth. Secondly, this paper uses the principle of smart growth to develop a new growth plan for two cities. We establish an optimization model to maximum CI value. The Particle Swarm Optimization (PSO) algorithm is used to solve the model. Combined with the calculation results and the specific circumstances of cities, we make their the smart growth plan respectively.

Prediction of future urban growth using CA-Markov for urban sustainability planning of Banda Aceh, Indonesia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Achmad, A.; Irwansyah, M.; Ramli, I.

2018-03-01

Banda Aceh experienced rapid growth, both physically, socially, and economically, after the Tsunami that devastated it the end of December in 2004. Hence policy controls are needed to direct the pattern of urban growth to achieve sustainable development for the future. The purpose of this paper is to generate a growth model for Banda Aceh using the CA-Markov process. By knowing the changes in land use between 2005 and 2009 from the results of previous research, simulations for 2013, 2019 and 2029 using the application of Idrisi@Selva. CA-Markov models were prepared to determine the quantity of changes. The simulation results showed that, after the Tsunami, the City of Banda Aceh tended to grow towards the coast. For the control of the LUC, the Banda Aceh City government needs to prepare comprehensive and detailed maps and inventory of LUC for the city to provide basic data and information needed for monitoring and evaluation that can be done effectively and efficiently. An institution for monitoring and evaluation of the urban landscape and the LUC should be formed immediately. This institution could consist of representatives from government, academia, community leaders, the private sector and other experts. The findings from this study can be used to start the monitoring and evaluation of future urban growth. Especially for the coastal areas, the local government should immediately prepare special spatial coastal area plans to control growth in those areas and to ensure that the economic benefits from disaster mitigation and coastal protection are preserved. For the development of the city in the future, it is necessary to achieve a balance between economic development, and social welfare with environmental protection and disaster mitigation. iIt will become a big challenge to achieve sustainable development for the future.

The Growth and Structure of Cities Program: An Innovative Approach to Urban Studies.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Bryn Mawr Coll., PA.

The long term aims of the Growth and Structure of Cities major at Bryn Mawr College are to introduce into the curriculum an interdisciplinary program which builds on existing strengths within the college and which offers students the opportunity to study the changing character of the contemporary urban environment in an historical, aesthetic, and…

Houston's Regional Forest

Treesearch

David J. Nowak; Peter D. Smith; Michael Merritt; John Giedraitis; Jeffrey T. Walton; Robert E. Hoehn; Jack C. Stevens; Daniel E. Crane; Mark Estes; Stephen Stetson; Charles Burditt; David Hitchcock; Wendee Holtcamp

2005-01-01

The population in and around Houston has grown rapidly over the past twenty years, now exceeding five million people. Studies of the area have noted that the loss of trees and changes to the forest makeup have generally accompanied this growth. Trees and urban forestry practices can be used effectively to reduce many of the negative effects of urban growth and other...

Smart Growth for a Sustainable Urban Environment - Concepts and Practice in US and China (CLASS PRESENTATION)

EPA Science Inventory

This is an invited seminar to a class of undergraduate and graduate students at DAAP of the University of Cincinnati. It provides students the concepts and trends in smart growth and sustainable urban development in U.S. and China. The materials are drawn from my research and m...

Automated Geospatial Watershed Assessment Tool (AGWA): Applications for Assessing the Impact of Urban Growth and the use of Low Impact Development Practices.

EPA Science Inventory

New tools and functionality have been incorporated into the Automated Geospatial Watershed Assessment Tool (AGWA) to assess the impact of urban growth and evaluate the effects of low impact development (LID) practices. AGWA (see: www.tucson.ars.ag.gov/agwa or http://www.epa.gov...

Strategies for Balanced Rural-Urban Growth. Agricultural Information Bulletin No. 392.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Edwards, Clark

Summarizing an Economic Research Service (ERS) publication, this guide to a balanced rural-urban growth describes the results of a computer based ERS model which examined seven strategies to improve rural economic development. Based on 1960-70 trends, the model is described as asking how much would be required of each of the following strategies…

Fine-resolution Modeling of Urban-Energy Systems' Water Footprint in River Networks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

McManamay, R.; Surendran Nair, S.; Morton, A.; DeRolph, C.; Stewart, R.

2015-12-01

Characterizing the interplay between urbanization, energy production, and water resources is essential for ensuring sustainable population growth. In order to balance limited water supplies, competing users must account for their realized and virtual water footprint, i.e. the total direct and indirect amount of water used, respectively. Unfortunately, publicly reported US water use estimates are spatially coarse, temporally static, and completely ignore returns of water to rivers after use. These estimates are insufficient to account for the high spatial and temporal heterogeneity of water budgets in urbanizing systems. Likewise, urbanizing areas are supported by competing sources of energy production, which also have heterogeneous water footprints. Hence, a fundamental challenge of planning for sustainable urban growth and decision-making across disparate policy sectors lies in characterizing inter-dependencies among urban systems, energy producers, and water resources. A modeling framework is presented that provides a novel approach to integrate urban-energy infrastructure into a spatial accounting network that accurately measures water footprints as changes in the quantity and quality of river flows. River networks (RNs), i.e. networks of branching tributaries nested within larger rivers, provide a spatial structure to measure water budgets by modeling hydrology and accounting for use and returns from urbanizing areas and energy producers. We quantify urban-energy water footprints for Atlanta, GA and Knoxville, TN (USA) based on changes in hydrology in RNs. Although water intakes providing supply to metropolitan areas were proximate to metropolitan areas, power plants contributing to energy demand in Knoxville and Atlanta, occurred 30 and 90km outside the metropolitan boundary, respectively. Direct water footprints from urban landcover primarily comprised smaller streams whereas indirect footprints from water supply reservoirs and energy producers included larger river systems. By using projections in urban populations for 2030 and 2050, we estimated scenarios of expansion in water footprints depending on urban growth policies and energy production technology. We provide examples of how this framework can be used to minimize water footprints and impacts to aquatic biodiversity.

Estimating urban vegetation fraction across 25 cities in pan-Pacific using Landsat time series data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lu, Yuhao; Coops, Nicholas C.; Hermosilla, Txomin

2017-04-01

Urbanization globally is consistently reshaping the natural landscape to accommodate the growing human population. Urban vegetation plays a key role in moderating environmental impacts caused by urbanization and is critically important for local economic, social and cultural development. The differing patterns of human population growth, varying urban structures and development stages, results in highly varied spatial and temporal vegetation patterns particularly in the pan-Pacific region which has some of the fastest urbanization rates globally. Yet spatially-explicit temporal information on the amount and change of urban vegetation is rarely documented particularly in less developed nations. Remote sensing offers an exceptional data source and a unique perspective to map urban vegetation and change due to its consistency and ubiquitous nature. In this research, we assess the vegetation fractions of 25 cities across 12 pan-Pacific countries using annual gap-free Landsat surface reflectance products acquired from 1984 to 2012, using sub-pixel, spectral unmixing approaches. Vegetation change trends were then analyzed using Mann-Kendall statistics and Theil-Sen slope estimators. Unmixing results successfully mapped urban vegetation for pixels located in urban parks, forested mountainous regions, as well as agricultural land (correlation coefficient ranging from 0.66 to 0.77). The greatest vegetation loss from 1984 to 2012 was found in Shanghai, Tianjin, and Dalian in China. In contrast, cities including Vancouver (Canada) and Seattle (USA) showed stable vegetation trends through time. Using temporal trend analysis, our results suggest that it is possible to reduce noise and outliers caused by phenological changes particularly in cropland using dense new Landsat time series approaches. We conclude that simple yet effective approaches of unmixing Landsat time series data for assessing spatial and temporal changes of urban vegetation at regional scales can provide critical information for urban planners and anthropogenic studies globally.

The inter-relationships between urban dynamics and water resource and supply based on multitemporal analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Aldea, Alexandru; Aldea, Mihaela

2016-08-01

The growth and concentration of population, housing and industry in urban and suburban areas in the continuous evolution of a city over time causes complex social, economic, and physical challenges. The population and its relationship with the use and development of the land and water is a critical issue of urban growth, and since ancient times land, water and man were directly involved in the human populations' survival. Nevertheless the current potential of study over this relationship between urban growth, water supply, drainage and water resources conditions becomes more and more attractive due to the possibility to make use of the broader variety of information sources and technologies readily available in recent years, with emphasis on the open data and on the big data as primary sources. In this regard we present some new possibilities of analyses over the demographics, land use/land cover and water supply and conservation based on a study over a Romanian region of development (Bucharest-Ilfov). As urban development usually outgrows the existing water supply systems, the resolution consists in drilling new and deeper wells, building new water distribution pipelines, building longer aqueducts and larger reservoirs, or finding new sources and constructing completely new water supply systems, water supplies may evolve this way from a result into a cause and driver of urban growth. The evolution trends of the studied area was estimated based on the open satellite time-series imagery and remote sensing techniques by land use/land cover extraction and the identification of the changes in urbanization. The survey is mainly focused on the expansion of the water network in terms of areal, total length and number of connections correlated with the amount of water produced, consumed and lost within a supply zone. Some urban human activities including the industrial ones alter water resource by pollution, over pumping of groundwater, construction of dams and reservoirs. In areas of rapid growth the worse problems came from the inadequate amount of potable water, the continuous deterioration of water quality and the slow progress in the water resources management and supply. The effects of urban dynamics over the water use and sustainability deserves an increasing study over the recent history in order to provide for an optimal management of the interrelationships between them.

Metropolization Process for enhancing local and regional planning : an experience of cirebon metropolitan, West Java

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Supriyadi Rustidja, E.

2018-03-01

Metropolitan develops in line with resource utilization, investment, and transactions of regional activities. Metropolization of an area gives emerge urban economy that changes the situation, form, and pattern of urban space interactions. On the other hand, metropolism concerns the strategy of changing variation of urban space, so that metropolitan invasion not only form of urban space but also the process of interaction among stakeholders in developing metropolitan area. Based on participatory research, this article explores metropolitan invasion process for enhancing local and regional planning, both indigenous and intrusive cataclysmic. The study find that the primeval, rural, and urban as elemental environment must be considered in developing metropolitan, not merely form the structure and pattern of urban space. The metropolization process also requires the strategic of rural urban linkage, context setting and local assessment, strategic community investment, and interculturalist approach. The other findings of the study show that metropolization in Cirebon Metropolitan, West Java emphasizing on promotion of competitiveness strategy, value chain urban activities, and networking of urban areas. Cirebon Metropolitan must promote the realization of growth centers and connect the interregional activities of metropolitan area for providing sustainable economic growth.

Nitrogen cycling process rates across urban ecosystems.

PubMed

Reisinger, Alexander J; Groffman, Peter M; Rosi-Marshall, Emma J

2016-09-21

Nitrogen (N) pollution of freshwater, estuarine, and marine ecosystems is widespread and has numerous environmental and economic impacts. A portion of this excess N comes from urban watersheds comprised of natural and engineered ecosystems which can alter downstream N export. Studies of urban N cycling have focused on either specific ecosystems or on watershed-scale mass balances. Comparisons of specific N transformations across ecosystems are required to contextualize rates from individual studies. Here we reviewed urban N cycling in terrestrial, aquatic, and engineered ecosystems, and compared N processing in these urban ecosystem types to native reference ecosystems. We found that net N mineralization and net nitrification rates were enhanced in urban forests and riparian zones relative to reference ecosystems. Denitrification was highly variable across urban ecosystem types, but no significant differences were found between urban and reference denitrification rates. When focusing on urban streams, ammonium uptake was more rapid than nitrate uptake in urban streams. Additionally, reduction of stormwater runoff coupled with potential decreases in N concentration suggests that green infrastructure may reduce downstream N export. Despite multiple environmental stressors in urban environments, ecosystems within urban watersheds can process and transform N at rates similar to or higher than reference ecosystems. © FEMS 2016. All rights reserved. For permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.

Exploring the response of net primary productivity variations to urban expansion and climate change: a scenario analysis for Guangdong Province in China.

PubMed

Pei, Fengsong; Li, Xia; Liu, Xiaoping; Lao, Chunhua; Xia, Gengrui

2015-03-01

Urban land development alters landscapes and carbon cycle, especially net primary productivity (NPP). Despite projections that NPP is often reduced by urbanization, little is known about NPP changes under future urban expansion and climate change conditions. In this paper, terrestrial NPP was calculated by using Biome-BGC model. However, this model does not explicitly address urban lands. Hence, we proposed a method of NPP-fraction to detect future urban NPP, assuming that the ratio of real NPP to potential NPP for urban cells remains constant for decades. Furthermore, NPP dynamics were explored by integrating the Biome-BGC and the cellular automata (CA), a widely used method for modeling urban growth. Consequently, urban expansion, climate change and their associated effects on the NPP were analyzed for the period of 2010-2039 using Guangdong Province in China as a case study. In addition, four scenarios were designed to reflect future conditions, namely baseline, climate change, urban expansion and comprehensive scenarios. Our analyses indicate that vegetation NPP in urban cells may increase (17.63 gC m(-2) year(-1)-23.35 gC m(-2) year(-1)) in the climate change scenario. However, future urban expansion may cause some NPP losses of 241.61 gC m(-2) year(-1), decupling the NPP increase of the climate change factor. Taking into account both climate change and urban expansion, vegetation NPP in urban area may decrease, minimally at a rate of 228.54 gC m(-2) year(-1) to 231.74 gC m(-2) year(-1). Nevertheless, they may account for an overall NPP increase of 0.78 TgC year(-1) to 1.28 TgC year(-1) in the whole province. All these show that the provincial NPP increase from climate change may offset the NPP decrease from urban expansion. Despite these results, it is of great significance to regulate reasonable expansion of urban lands to maintain carbon balance. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

The message is the message-maker.

PubMed

Chalkley, A B

1977-03-01

For those engaged in family planning or other demographic work of an active kind, serious errors can be made and much money and skill wasted unless there is a clear idea of available means of communication. Literacy and media-diffusion figures offer vague parameters, especially in Asia, and the role of spoken communication -- considered key in "illiterate" societies -- is even more difficult to assess. For mass media, the starting point is "diffusion rates" representing numbers of TV sets owned or newspapers sold per 1000 population and so on -- measures of quantity. This article surveys the population growth rates, urban-rural distribution, educational levels, literacy rates, numbers of newspapers bought, radios and TVs owned (per 1000 population) for 12 Asian countries, and discusses their meaning in terms of media use. Chief among the points made are that print media still have an enormous role to play in the developing countries -- newspaper diffusion rates are quite high, even in countries with low urban population (especially India). The quality of electronic media (too often considered the natural "wave of the future" everywhere) varies but is generally not high. Where they are fully developed their role is vital -- but it might be noted that it is the message makers themselves who are most vital. Choosing the right medium and the proper message for it is essential.

Elevated incidence rates of diabetes in Peru: report from PERUDIAB, a national urban population-based longitudinal study

PubMed Central

Seclen, Segundo Nicolas; Rosas, Moises Ernesto; Arias, Arturo Jaime; Medina, Cecilia Alexandra

2017-01-01

Objective A recent report from a non-nationally representative, geographically diverse sample in four separate communities in Peru suggests an unusually high diabetes incidence. We aimed to estimate the national diabetes incidence rate using PERUDIAB, a probabilistic, national urban population-based longitudinal study. Research design and methods 662 subjects without diabetes, selected by multistage, cluster, random sampling of households, representing the 24 administrative and the 3 (coast, highlands and jungle) natural regions across the country, from both sexes, aged 25+ years at baseline, enrolled in 2010–2012, were followed for 3.8 years. New diabetes cases were defined as fasting blood glucose ≥126 mg/dL or on medical diabetes treatment. Results There were 49 cases of diabetes in 2408 person-years follow-up. The weighted cumulative incidence of diabetes was 7.2% while the weighted incidence rate was estimated at 19.5 (95% CI 13.9 to 28.3) new cases per 1000 person-years. Older age, obesity and technical or higher education were statistically associated with the incidence of diabetes. Conclusion Our results confirm that the incidence of diabetes in Peru is among the highest reported globally. The fast economic growth in the last 20 years, high overweight and obesity rates may have triggered this phenomenon. PMID:28878935

Elevated incidence rates of diabetes in Peru: report from PERUDIAB, a national urban population-based longitudinal study.

PubMed

Seclen, Segundo Nicolas; Rosas, Moises Ernesto; Arias, Arturo Jaime; Medina, Cecilia Alexandra

2017-01-01

A recent report from a non-nationally representative, geographically diverse sample in four separate communities in Peru suggests an unusually high diabetes incidence. We aimed to estimate the national diabetes incidence rate using PERUDIAB, a probabilistic, national urban population-based longitudinal study. 662 subjects without diabetes, selected by multistage, cluster, random sampling of households, representing the 24 administrative and the 3 (coast, highlands and jungle) natural regions across the country, from both sexes, aged 25+ years at baseline, enrolled in 2010-2012, were followed for 3.8 years. New diabetes cases were defined as fasting blood glucose ≥126 mg/dL or on medical diabetes treatment. There were 49 cases of diabetes in 2408 person-years follow-up. The weighted cumulative incidence of diabetes was 7.2% while the weighted incidence rate was estimated at 19.5 (95% CI 13.9 to 28.3) new cases per 1000 person-years. Older age, obesity and technical or higher education were statistically associated with the incidence of diabetes. Our results confirm that the incidence of diabetes in Peru is among the highest reported globally. The fast economic growth in the last 20 years, high overweight and obesity rates may have triggered this phenomenon.

[An end to poverty

PubMed

Engelhard, P

1994-10-01

The African continent is distinguished by a much higher fertility rate than other regions. Fertility in Africa has remained almost constant at slightly over six children per woman on average, while important declines have occurred elsewhere over the past 25 years. High fertility in Africa is often attributed to poor diffusion of family planning, early marriage, and low female educational attainment, but other cultural and economic factors are involved. The significant decline of infant mortality over the past several decades has produced growth rates never before observed. Africa's very young populations may be at the origin of uncontrollable political disorder, as young persons with bleak prospects fall easy prey to ethnic, religious, and political extremism. Demographic growth has become an additional barrier to development. High fertility is tolerated or encouraged as constituting a cultural trait, but the resulting population growth is not a cultural trait. Demographic pressure has increased environmental problems in many regions. It is estimated that over ten million rural residents of the Sahel have been affected by soil degradation. The per capita availability of arable land fell from one-half to one-third hectare between 1965 and 1987. Shortages of firewood and water have become more common. The relationship between demographic growth, environmental crisis, and poverty in the countryside depends on other factors such as production techniques, modes of access to land and water, and the degree of security of land tenure. Population pressure was not the initial factor that disturbed the balance of the traditional societies, but it exacerbated the effects of other forces such as the introduction of cash crops and monetarization of the economy. Rural exodus and accelerated urban migration have been prompted in large part by the higher incomes and greater availability of services of all types in the cities. Achieving control of fertility in Africa will require stabilization of rural populations, territorial management, and reduction of disparities between rural and urban areas.

Understanding the Long Run Determinants of Land Use in Global Crop Production

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Baldos, U. C.; Hertel, T. W.

2011-12-01

Cropland cover is expected to increase in the future given the projected growth on global demand for crops. Over the past century, crop demand has largely been driven by food demands, which were, in turn driven by a combination of rising population growth and increased per capita incomes, with the former dominating. However, with population growth slowing, and incomes rising more strongly in the developing world - where dietary upgrading is a significant factor - income growth has emerged as a relatively more significant driver of total food demand. At the same time, renewable energy policies across the world have introduced a new, dynamic element to the industrial demand for cropland. However, the drivers of long run cropland use are not limited to those directly related to crop demand. New trends suggest that crop yield growth may be slowing in critical breadbaskets around the world. In addition, some agricultural lands have been lost to urbanization and soil degradation. There is also a growing interest in setting aside land for biodiversity. Finally, there is considerable interest in terrestrial carbon sequestration which could place important new demands on the world's croplands. The co-existence of so many competing factors poses a challenge for properly assessing the long-run global supply and demand for croplands in 2050. In this paper, we quantify the contributions of each of these key drivers to the long-run global cropland use using a partial equilibrium model of global agriculture. To implement the model, we also construct a global database for key land use, agricultural and socio-economic variables from several sources. Our analysis starts with validation of the model over an historical period from 2001 up to 2007-05 (5 years). The model's prediction regarding cropland use is slightly lower than the observed change (+5.8% vs. +8.3%). Decomposition of the drivers of land use change shows that income growth (+3.9%) has a larger impact than population growth (+1.6%), biofuels (+0.2%) and urbanization (-0.3%). Technological change in crop, livestock and processed food production also have a modest impact on global cropland use over this historical period (+0.8%, -0.3% and +0.1%, respectively). We then turn our attention to projections of global land use over the coming decade. Here we project continued expansion in global cropland (13.7%). We then decompose the drivers of this projected change in land use. For example, if population grows at projected rates and yields grow at recent historical rates, then projected cropland use rises by just 1.7%. If we add urbanization, then global cropland use is slightly reduced (+1.5%). Because of the magnitude of the projected production targets, adding biofuels boosts global cropland use strongly (+4.2%) when added to the preceding factors. Adding technological change in the livestock and food processing sectors, as well as growth in per capita incomes boosts projected cropland use to 13.7%. In short, income growth is likely to be the critical driver of global cropland change in the future.

Groundwater contamination in relation with the increasing urbanization rate in Africa. Case of Cotonou and Porto Novo (Benin).

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Odeloui, Diane; Celle-Jeanton, Hélène; Huneau, Frédéric; Boukari, Moussa; Alassane, Abdelkarim; Garel, Emilie; Lavastre, Véronique; Bertrand, Guillaume

2016-04-01

More than one billion people in the world still have no access to sufficient resources in drinking water (United Nation, 2014). In particular, large cities in Africa have to face several problems: 1) population growth associated with the strongest urbanization rate increase (5% per year) of the world leading to a dramatic increase in good-quality water needs, 2) low levels of solid waste management and sanitation services, 3) insufficient or disconnected water supply services, 4) low knowledge of water resources availabilities. The situation in Benin is a relevant illustration of the problems that Africa has to face to. As many other coastal urban areas in Africa (Showers, 2002; Re et al., 2011), Cotonou and Porto Novo cities have seen a rapid increase of their population as these towns constitute a corridor of transit for the imports and the exports in the nearby countries. Hence, they are very attractive for job hunters, and constitute the administrative centers for the whole country. This rapid population growth amplifies the problem of water supply and may generate serious impacts on groundwater resources: depletion due to overexploitation, salinization due to seawater intrusion and pollution linked to human activities. In order to insure a safe water supply in the context of increasing urbanization and population in the coastal area of Cotonou and Porto Novo, the identification of the main sources of pollution is essential for the implementation of long-term water management procedures. Based on two field campaigns carried out in January-2012 (dry season) and August-2012 (rainy season), hydrochemical analysis have been realized on groundwater sampled from boreholes drilled in the CTA (Continental Terminal Aquifer) and wells dug in the QCA (Quaternary Coastal Aquifer) in order to investigate the origin of salinization and the present time extension of the nitrate contamination. Historical data have also been collected from previous studies in order to investigate the evolution of the saline intrusion within both aquifers and to propose managerial schemes for the sustainable exploitation of the groundwater resources.

Modeling Global Urbanization Supported by Nighttime Light Remote Sensing

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhou, Y.

2015-12-01

Urbanization, a major driver of global change, profoundly impacts our physical and social world, for example, altering carbon cycling and climate. Understanding these consequences for better scientific insights and effective decision-making unarguably requires accurate information on urban extent and its spatial distributions. In this study, we developed a cluster-based method to estimate the optimal thresholds and map urban extents from the nighttime light remote sensing data, extended this method to the global domain by developing a computational method (parameterization) to estimate the key parameters in the cluster-based method, and built a consistent 20-year global urban map series to evaluate the time-reactive nature of global urbanization (e.g. 2000 in Fig. 1). Supported by urban maps derived from nightlights remote sensing data and socio-economic drivers, we developed an integrated modeling framework to project future urban expansion by integrating a top-down macro-scale statistical model with a bottom-up urban growth model. With the models calibrated and validated using historical data, we explored urban growth at the grid level (1-km) over the next two decades under a number of socio-economic scenarios. The derived spatiotemporal information of historical and potential future urbanization will be of great value with practical implications for developing adaptation and risk management measures for urban infrastructure, transportation, energy, and water systems when considered together with other factors such as climate variability and change, and high impact weather events.

Change in Environmental Benefits of Urban Land Use and Its Drivers in Chinese Cities, 2000–2010

PubMed Central

Song, Xiaoqing; Chang, Kang-tsung; Yang, Liang; Scheffran, Jürgen

2016-01-01

Driven by rising income and urban population growth, China has experienced rapid urban expansion since the 1980s. Urbanization can have positive effects on the urban environment; however, improvement of urban environment quality, especially its divergence between relatively developed and undeveloped cities in China, is currently a rather rudimentary and subjective issue. This study analyzed urban environmental benefits among China’s prefectural cities based on their structure of urban land use in 2000 and 2010. First, we divided 347 prefectural cities into two groups, 81 coastal and capital cities in the relatively developed group (RD) and 266 other prefectural cities in the undeveloped group (RP). Then, we defined three areas of urban environmental benefits, including green infrastructure, industrial upgrade, and environmental management, and developed an assessment index system. Results showed that all prefectural cities saw improvement in urban environmental quality in 2000–2010. Although the RD cities had higher income and more population growth, they had less improvement than the RP cities during the same period. We also found that demographic and urban land agglomeration among RD cities restrained green infrastructure expansion, making green infrastructure unsuitable as a permanent solution to environmental improvement. It is therefore urgent for China to promote balanced improvement among the three areas of urban environmental benefits and between the RD and RP cities through regional differentiation policies. PMID:27240386

Change in Environmental Benefits of Urban Land Use and Its Drivers in Chinese Cities, 2000-2010.

PubMed

Song, Xiaoqing; Chang, Kang-Tsung; Yang, Liang; Scheffran, Jürgen

2016-05-26

Driven by rising income and urban population growth, China has experienced rapid urban expansion since the 1980s. Urbanization can have positive effects on the urban environment; however, improvement of urban environment quality, especially its divergence between relatively developed and undeveloped cities in China, is currently a rather rudimentary and subjective issue. This study analyzed urban environmental benefits among China's prefectural cities based on their structure of urban land use in 2000 and 2010. First, we divided 347 prefectural cities into two groups, 81 coastal and capital cities in the relatively developed group (RD) and 266 other prefectural cities in the undeveloped group (RP). Then, we defined three areas of urban environmental benefits, including green infrastructure, industrial upgrade, and environmental management, and developed an assessment index system. Results showed that all prefectural cities saw improvement in urban environmental quality in 2000-2010. Although the RD cities had higher income and more population growth, they had less improvement than the RP cities during the same period. We also found that demographic and urban land agglomeration among RD cities restrained green infrastructure expansion, making green infrastructure unsuitable as a permanent solution to environmental improvement. It is therefore urgent for China to promote balanced improvement among the three areas of urban environmental benefits and between the RD and RP cities through regional differentiation policies.

Future Directions for Urban Forestry Research in the United States

Treesearch

John F. Dwyer; David J. Nowak; Gary W. Watson

2002-01-01

Urban forestry research promises to continue to be an integral part of the growth and development of forestry in urban and urbanizing areas of the United States. The future is expected to bring increased emphasis on research in support of the care of trees and other plants, ecological restoration, and comprehensive and adaptive management across the landscape....

Social and Psychiatric Influences on Urban-Rural Differentials in Australian Suicide

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Taylor, Richard; Page, Andrew; Morrell, Stephen; Harrison, James; Carter, Greg

2005-01-01

The purpose of this study was to investigate urban-rural differentials in Australian suicide rates, and to examine influences that previously have remained largely speculative. Suicide rates for males (all ages and young adults) were significantly higher in rural areas compared to urban areas. Urban-rural suicide rate differences in males were…

Four decades urban growth and land use change in Samara Russia through remote sensing and GIS techniques

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Boori, Mukesh Singh; Choudhary, Komal; Kupriyanov, Alexander; Kovelskiy, Viktor

2015-12-01

This study illustrates the spatio-temporal dynamics of urban growth and land use changes in Samara city, Russia from 1975 to 2015. Landsat satellite imageries of five different time periods from 1975 to 2015 were acquired and quantify the changes with the help of ArcGIS 10.1 Software. By applying classification methods to the satellite images four main types of land use were extracted: water, built-up, forest and grassland. Then, the area coverage for all the land use types at different points in time were measured and coupled with population data. The results demonstrate that, over the entire study period, population was increased from 1146 thousand people to 1244 thousand from 1975 to 1990 but later on first reduce and then increase again, now 1173 thousand population. Built-up area is also change according to population. The present study revealed an increase in built-up by 37.01% from 1975 to 1995, than reduce -88.83% till 2005 and an increase by 39.16% from 2005 to 2015, along with the increase in population, migration from rural areas owing to the economic growth and technological advantages associated with urbanization. Information on urban growth, land use and land cover change study is very useful to local government and urban planners for the betterment of future plans to sustainable development of the city.

Projecting Future Urbanization with Prescott College's Spatial Growth Model to Promote Environmental Sustainability and Smart Growth, A Case Study in Atlanta, Georgia

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Estes, Maurice G., Jr.; Crosson, William; Limaye, Ashutosh; Johnson, Hoyt; Quattrochi, Dale; Lapenta, William; Khan, Maudood

2006-01-01

Planning is an integral element of good management and necessary to anticipate events not merely respond to them. Projecting the quantity and spatial distribution of urban growth is essential to effectively plan for the delivery of city services and to evaluate potential environmental impacts. The major drivers of growth in large urban areas are increasing population, employment opportunities, and quality of life attractors such as a favorable climate and recreation opportunities. The spatial distribution of urban growth is dictated by the amount and location of developable land, topography, energy and water resources, transportation network, climate change, and the existing land use configuration. The Atlanta region is growing very rapidly both in population and the consumption of forestland or low-density residential development. Air pollution and water availability are significant ongoing environmental issues. The Prescott Spatial Growth Model (SGM) was used to make growth projections for the metropolitan Atlanta region to 2010,2020 and 2030 and results used for environmental assessment in both business as usual and smart growth scenarios. The Prescott SGM is a tool that uses an ESRI ArcView extension and can be applied at the parcel level or more coarse spatial scales and can accommodate a wide range of user inputs to develop any number of growth rules each of which can be weighted depending on growth assumptions. These projections were used in conjunction with meteorological and air quality models to evaluate future environmental impacts. This presentation will focus on the application of the SGM to the 13-County Atlanta Regional Commission planning jurisdiction as a case study. The SGM will be described, including how rule sets are developed and the decision process for allocation of future development to available land use categories. Data inputs required to effectively run the model will be discussed. Spatial growth projections for ten, twenty, and thirty year planning horizons will be presented and results discussed, including regional climate and air quality impacts.

Dynamics of Urban Evolution : Volume 2. Intra-Urban Evolution.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

1978-10-01

In this report the concept of "order by fluctuation," that has appeared recently in physico-chemical and biological systems, is applied to the description of urban growth. It is shown that fluctuations play a vital role in the evolutionary process of...

Causes, trends, and policy of population migration and the floating population.

PubMed

Cai, F

1996-01-01

This study provides a discussion of migration theory, a description of the main characteristics of migrants and floating population in China, and a migration impact assessment and potential social policy directions. It is argued that the impetus for migration in China was the population distribution pattern and an uneven industrial structure that favored heavy industry. Another factor affecting migration is the gap in income between urban and rural areas, which has widened since reforms in the mid-1980s. The author finds the Todaro or the Harris-Todaro theories inappropriate for understanding migration in developing countries and flawed. Evidence about migrants' characteristics suggest that migration in China was part of a process governed by the laws of economic growth and market development. Legal migrants are defined as those who legally migrated according to the household registration system. China's development strategy during the 1950s relied on growth of capital-intensive heavy industry. The cost was underwritten by adoption of a price system that shifted the price of products in order to lower the cost of heavy industrial development. During 1952-78, agricultural output dropped sharply, but the employment structure changed very little and the rate of urbanization changed slightly. Regional inequality was obvious by 1978. As reform progressed, patterns emerged that favored eastern coastal development. Microlevel reform outdistanced macrolevel reform. Obstacles to migration were reduced: the breakup of the commune system and changes in the urban food supply system and housing. In 1990 there were 34.128 million migrants, of which 32.42% were interprovincial and 42.99% involved job-related shifts. In 1992, 8.1% of urban population were not registered; 94.909 million were floating population. Cities have established policies to match the size of the floating population to the current carrying capacity.

The impact of urban operations on helicopter noise requirements

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Spector, S. R.

1978-01-01

The interrelationship of urban helicopter operations, helicopter noise, and the establishment of urban public-use heliports is discussed. Public resistance to urban helicopter operations due to concern for safety and noise is shown to negatively impact the establishment of public-use heliports in urban centers. It is indicated that increased government and industry effort to reduce helicopter noise is needed to ensure continued growth in the helicopter industry.

Problems of urban development and growth

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Gerlach, A. C.; Wray, J. R.

1972-01-01

The increase in the density of human population in urban areas and the effects on various aspects of the environment are discussed. The application of remote sensors to measure, analyze, and predict urban changes and their environmental impact is described. Examples of urban area mapping by aerial photography are included. The methods which have been developed to acquire, analyze, utilize, and preserve remotely sensed data on urban development are presented.

Impact of Urban Growth and Urbanization on the Environmental Degradation of Lakes in Hyderabad City, India

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nandan, M. J.; Sen, M. K.; Harini, P.; Sekhar, B. M.; Balaji, T.

2013-12-01

Lakes are a vital part of urban ecosystems which perform important ecological and environmental functions to safeguard local climate, groundwater and habitat. The incessant population growth coupled with low urban planning is causing severe damage to urban ecosystems throughout the world. Hyderabad is one of the largest growing metropolitan cities of India covering an area of 65000 ha situated on the banks of Musi River in the northern part of the Deccan Plateau. The city had a population of 1.25 million in 1961 which increased to 6.8 million in 2011 with a metropolitan population of 7.75 million, making it India's fourth most populous city and sixth most populous urban agglomeration. Hyderabad is popularly known as 'City of Lakes' which occupies the top position in India in terms of Urban Lakes. In 20th century, the number of lakes were around 925 which are now reduced to 521 and most of these lakes are facing extinction. The water spread area of these lakes has been considerably reduced due to steady urban growth and the carrying capacity and ecological status of these urban lakes are in real danger. Many of these lakes have shrunk in size while the waters of several lakes got polluted with the discharge of untreated domestic and industrial effluents. Taking into consideration the environmental degradation of urban lakes, an attempt was made to study the current status, loss of water bodies and water spread using remote sensing and GIS techniques. Time-series satellite images of MSS, IRS and RESOURCESAT and Survey of India maps of 1:50,000 and 1:25,000 were used for this study. Analysis of these together with other data sets was accomplished through integrated use of ERDAS Imagine Arc view and ArcGIS software packages. It is estimated that there were 925 lakes in 1982 in erstwhile Hyderabad Urban Development Authority (HUDA) area which came down to 521 in 2012. A total number of 404 lakes disappeared during the last 30 years period. Consequently the water spread area of these lakes got reduced from 14005 ha. to 11066 ha. The area covered under water bodies has come down from 21.53 per cent of the geographical area in 1982 to 17.02 per cent in 2012. The decline during 2002-2012 period was severe which can be directly related to the highest urban growth (87.2%) during the same period. The study indicates that, immediate attention be drawn towards conservation and management of these lakes for the protection of urban systems.

Capturing Old-Growth Values for Use in Forest Decision-Making

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Owen, Rochelle J.; Duinker, Peter N.; Beckley, Thomas M.

2009-02-01

Old-growth forests have declined significantly across the world. Decisions related to old growth are often mired in challenges of value diversity, conflict, data gaps, and resource pressures. This article describes old-growth values of citizens and groups in Nova Scotia, Canada, for integration in sustainable forest management (SFM) decision-making. The study is based on data from 76 research subjects who participated in nine field trips to forest stands. Research subjects were drawn from Aboriginal groups, environmental organizations, forestry professionals, and rural and urban publics. Diaries, group discussions, and rating sheets were used to elicit information during the field trips. Findings show that different elicitation techniques can influence the articulation of intensity with which some values are held. In addition, certain values are more often associated with old-growth than with other forest-age classes. Some values associated with old-growth are considered more important than others, and some silvicultural treatments are perceived to compromise old-growth values more than others. Demographic characteristics, such as constituency group, gender, and age, are shown to influence value priorities. Ideas on how to incorporate old-growth values into SFM decision-making are highlighted.

Capital, population and urban patterns.

PubMed

Zhang, W

1994-04-01

The author develops an approach to urban dynamics with endogenous capital and population growth, synthesizing the Alonso location model, the two-sector neoclassical growth model, and endogenous population theory. A dynamic model for an isolated island economy with endogenous capital, population, and residential structure is developed on the basis of Alonso's residential model and the two-sector neoclassical growth model. The model describes the interdependence between residential structure, economic growth, population growth, and economic structure over time and space. It has a unique long-run equilibrium, which may be either stable or unstable, depending upon the population dynamics. Applying the Hopf theorem, the author also shows that when the system is unstable, the economic geography exhibits permanent endogenous oscillations.

Analysis and Application of Airborne Thermal Data at the Local Level Salt Lake City, Utah

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Dudley-Murphy, Elizabeth A.

1999-01-01

Expanding cities are transforming periurban environments such as agricultural land, natural grasslands, forests, wetlands, and and land, into urban surfaces, such as asphalt and concrete. This transformation is part of a process defined as "urban heat island". The urban surfaces get much hotter during the daylight hours in the summer than the natural or vegetated environment. The heat builds up creating a dome effect over the city making it many degrees hotter than it's surrounding area. The impacts from this, which include higher usage of air conditioners, water, etc., are numerous and costly. As cities expand, this problem is exacerbated. It is necessary to incorporate better quality data into urban analysis and for establishing methods that systematically and objectively monitor growth and change due to increased urbanization. NASA initiated Project Atlanta in 1997 "as an interdisciplinary remote sensing study to observe and measure the growth and development of the urban heat island effect over Atlanta, and its associated impacts". This project has recently included Salt Lake City, among others, in the study of the development and effects of "urban heat islands". NASA has made available to Salt Lake City, high resolution, 10 meter, multispectral thermal data collected in June 1998. The data collection was part of a special NASA over-flight, a mission supported by the U.S. EPA in conjunction with their Urban Heat Island (UHI) Mitigation Initiative. Salt Lake City is one of three pilot cities selected to participate in this unique initiative. Hence, this project constitutes a rare opportunity to capitalize upon state-of-the-art NASA technology and link it to an urban community very concerned about rapid growth and development. This data will enhance existing data and be used for improving technical tools used to plan for Utah's future.

Republic of Senegal. Country profile.

PubMed

Gold, D

1985-04-01

The demographic and economic characteristics and some of the cultural traditions of the Republic of Senegal are described. Senegal obtained its independence from France in 1960. Despite the fact that the majority of the population derives its living from agriculture, the country must import additional food staples to feed its population. Conditions contributing to poor crop yields in recent years include 1) the frequent occurrence of droughts, 2) soil depletion caused by overintensive cultivation practices, and 3) land dessication caused by poor forestry management. In 1984 crop yields were only 10% of the normal crop yields. The government under the leadership of the president, Adbou Diouf, is currently developing plans to improve agricultural conditions and to encourage the industrial development of the country. The tourist industry is also growing. In 1976 Senegal conducted it 1st national census. According to the census the total population was 5,068,741 and the population growth rate was 2.6%. The US Census Bureau estimates that the population growth rate is now 3.2% and that 654,000 people were added to the population between 1976 and 1985. 27% of the population is urban, and the majority of the urban population resides in Dakar. In recent years, the rate of rural to urban migration increased rapidly as a result of the deteriorating agricultural conditions. The population is unevenly distributed throughout the country; 82% of the population lives in 39% of the country's territory. In 1977, 18% of the population lived in housing with electricity, and in 1983, 37% of the population lived in housing with running water. Most rural residents live in villages consisting of clusters of clay structures with thatched roofs and dirt floors. Most of the urban poor live in crowded shantytowns, which lack urban services. More than 1/2 of the population is under the age of 18. According to the 1978 World Fertility Survey, 83% of all women of reproductive age are married, and 48% of these women live in polygamous unions. Children are viewed as gifts form God, and 53% of the respondents in the fertility study said that the ideal family size was 9 or more. In 1976, the literacy rate was 28% for males and 17% for females. Radio is the most popular form of mass media. French is the official language, but only 15% of the population can speak or write French. 80% of the population speaks Wolof, a native dialect. Predominant ethnic groups are the Wolof, Serer, Peul, and Tuouleur. The country has a relatively high foreign population, and Islam is the religion of 80% of the population. 69% of the country's active male population is engaged in agriculture, fishing, or hunting, 14% are laborers or machine operators, and 4% are employed in the commercial sector. Approximately 800,000 women are gainfully employed, primarily as domestic servants. This document also provides the names and addresses of a number of organizations and agencies from which additional information on Senegal can be obtained.