Rainfall-runoff in the Albuquerque, New Mexico, area: Measurements, analyses and comparisons

USGS Publications Warehouse

Anderson, C.E.; Ward, T.J.; Kelly, T.; ,

2005-01-01

Albuquerque, New Mexico, has experienced significant growth over the last 20 years like many other cities in the Southwestern United States. While the US population grew by 37% between the 1970 and 2000 censuses, the growth for Albuquerque was 83%. More people mean more development and increased problems of managing runoff from urbanizing watersheds. The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) in cooperation with the Albuquerque Arroyo Metropolitan Flood Control Authority (AMAFCA) and the City of Albuquerque has maintained a rainfall-runoff data collection program since 1976. The data from measured precipitation events can be used to verify hydrologic modeling. In this presentation, data from a representative gaged watershed is analyzed and discussed to set the overall framework for the rainfall-runoff process in the Albuquerque area. Of particular interest are the basic relationships between rainfall and watershed runoff response and an analysis of curve numbers as an indicator of runoff function. In urbanized areas, four land treatment types (natural, irrigated lawns, compacted soil, and impervious) are used to define surface infiltration conditions. Rainfall and runoff gage data are used to compare curve number (CN) and initial abstraction/uniform infiltration (IA/INF) techniques in an Albuquerque watershed. The IA/INF method appears to produce superior results over the CN method for the measured rainfall events.

Hydrologic data for urban storm runoff in the Denver metropolitan area, Colorado

USGS Publications Warehouse

Gibbs, Johnnie W.; Doefer, John T.

1982-01-01

Urban storm-runoff data collected from April through September 1981 from nine Denver Nationwide Urban Runoff Program sites, urban storm-runoff data collected from April 1980 through September 1981 from ten South Platte River Study sites, and rainfall-runoff simulation data from two sites for June 1980 and May 1981 are presented in this report. The Denver Nationwide Urban Runoff Program sites were two single-family residential areas, two multifamily residential areas, one commercial area (shopping center), one mixed commercial and multifamily residential area, one natural area (open space), and two detention ponds. The South Platte River Study sites were six tributaries of the South Platte River and four instream sites on the South Platte River. The tributary sites were Bear Creek at mouth, at Sheridan; Harvard Gulch at Harvard Park, at Denver; Sanderson Gulch at mouth, at Denver; Weir Gulch at mouth, at Denver; Lakewood Gulch at mouth, at Denver; and Cherry Creek at Denver. The instream sites were South Platte River at Littleton; South Platte River at Florida Avenue, at Denver; South Platte River at Denver; and South Platte River at 50th Avenue, at Denver. The rainfall-runoff simulation sites were North Avenue at Denver Federal Center, at Lakewood and Rooney Gulch at Rooney Ranch, near Morrison. Precipitation, rainfall-runoff, water-quality data, and basin characteristics were collected at the urban storm-runoff sites. The urban storm-runoff data may be used to characterize runoff loading for various land-use types in Denver and other semiarid regions. (USGS)

Quantifying effects of climate change on the snowmelt-dominated groundwater resources of northern New England

USGS Publications Warehouse

Dudley, Robert W.; Hodgkins, Glenn A.; Shanley, James B.; Mack, Thomas J.

2010-01-01

Recent U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) climate studies in New England have shown substantial evidence of hydrologic changes during the last 100 years, including trends toward earlier snowmelt runoff, decreasing occurrence of river ice, and decreasing winter snowpack. These studies are being expanded to include investigation of trends in groundwater levels and fluctuations. Groundwater is an important drinking-water source throughout northern New England (Maine, New Hampshire, and Vermont). The USGS is currently investigating whether or not groundwater recharge from snowmelt and precipitation exhibits historical trends. In addition to trend-testing, groundwater resources also will be analyzed by relating groundwater-level changes to the large year-to-year variability in weather conditions. Introduction The USGS has documented many seasonal climate-related changes in the northeastern United States that have occurred during the last 30 to 150 years. These changes include earlier snowmelt runoff in the late winter and early spring, decreasing duration of ice on rivers and lakes, decreasing ratio of snowfall to total precipitation, and denser and thinner late-winter snowpack. All of these changes are consistent with warming winter and spring air temperatures (Dudley and Hodgkins, 2002; Hodgkins and others, 2002; Huntington and others, 2004; Hodgkins and others, 2005; Hodgkins and Dudley, 2006a; Hodgkins and Dudley, 2006b). Climate-model projections for the Northeast indicate air-temperature warming, earlier snowmelt runoff, increases in annual evaporation, and decreased low streamflows (Hayhoe and others, 2007). The contribution and timing of spring snowmelt to groundwater recharge is particularly important to groundwater resources in the northeastern United States where aquifers typically consist of thin sediments overlying crystalline bedrock with relatively little storage capacity (Mack, 2009). Following spring recharge, groundwater slowly flows into streams throughout the summer. This groundwater flow is a source of cool water during the summer and accounts for a large proportion of the streamflow during summer low-flow periods. Groundwater is an important drinking-water source in northern New England. Approximately 32 percent of public water suppliers draw water from groundwater sources in Vermont, New Hampshire, and Maine, and approximately 40 percent of the population derives its drinking water from private wells (Kenny and others, 2009). It is vital to understand changes that may be occurring to such an important resource for planning industrial and agricultural water uses and protecting drinking water.

Application of the Precipitation-Runoff Modeling System (PRMS) in the Apalachicola-Chattahoochee-Flint River Basin in the southeastern United States

USGS Publications Warehouse

LaFontaine, Jacob H.; Hay, Lauren E.; Viger, Roland J.; Markstrom, Steve L.; Regan, R. Steve; Elliott, Caroline M.; Jones, John W.

2013-01-01

A hydrologic model of the Apalachicola–Chattahoochee–Flint River Basin (ACFB) has been developed as part of a U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) National Climate Change and Wildlife Science Center effort to provide integrated science that helps resource managers understand the effect of climate change on a range of ecosystem responses. The hydrologic model was developed as part of the Southeast Regional Assessment Project using the Precipitation Runoff Modeling System (PRMS), a deterministic, distributed-parameter, process-based system that simulates the effects of precipitation, temperature, and land use on basin hydrology. The ACFB PRMS model simulates streamflow throughout the approximately 50,700 square-kilometer basin on a daily time step for the period 1950–99 using gridded climate forcings of air temperature and precipitation, and parameters derived from spatial data layers of altitude, land cover, soils, surficial geology, depression storage (small water bodies), and data from 56 USGS streamgages. Measured streamflow data from 35 of the 56 USGS streamgages were used to calibrate and evaluate simulated basin streamflow; the remaining gage locations were used for model delineation only. The model matched measured daily streamflow at 31 of the 35 calibration gages with Nash-Sutcliffe Model Efficiency Index (NS) greater than 0.6. Streamflow data for some calibration gages were augmented for regulation and water use effects to represent more natural flow volumes. Time-static parameters describing land cover limited the ability of the simulation to match historical runoff in the more developed subbasins. Overall, the PRMS simulation of the ACFB provides a good representation of basin hydrology on annual and monthly time steps. Calibration subbasins were analyzed by separating the 35 subbasins into five classes based on physiography, land use, and stream type (tributary or mainstem). The lowest NS values were rarely below 0.6, whereas the median NS for all five classes was within 0.74 to 0.96 for annual mean streamflow, 0.89 to 0.98 for mean monthly streamflow, and 0.82 to 0.98 for monthly mean streamflow. The median bias for all five classes was within –4.3 to 0.8 percent for annual mean streamflow, –6.3 to 0.5 percent for mean monthly streamflow, and –9.3 to 1.3 percent for monthly mean streamflow. The NS results combined with the percent bias results indicated a good to very good streamflow volume simulation for all subbasins. This simulation of the ACFB provides a foundation for future modeling and interpretive studies. Streamflow and other components of the hydrologic cycle simulated by PRMS can be used to inform other types of simulations; water-temperature, hydrodynamic, and ecosystem-dynamics simulations are three examples. In addition, possible future hydrologic conditions could be studied using this model in combination with land cover projections and downscaled general circulation model results.

Hydrometeorological model for streamflow prediction

USGS Publications Warehouse

Tangborn, Wendell V.

1979-01-01

The hydrometeorological model described in this manual was developed to predict seasonal streamflow from water in storage in a basin using streamflow and precipitation data. The model, as described, applies specifically to the Skokomish, Nisqually, and Cowlitz Rivers, in Washington State, and more generally to streams in other regions that derive seasonal runoff from melting snow. Thus the techniques demonstrated for these three drainage basins can be used as a guide for applying this method to other streams. Input to the computer program consists of daily averages of gaged runoff of these streams, and daily values of precipitation collected at Longmire, Kid Valley, and Cushman Dam. Predictions are based on estimates of the absolute storage of water, predominately as snow: storage is approximately equal to basin precipitation less observed runoff. A pre-forecast test season is used to revise the storage estimate and improve the prediction accuracy. To obtain maximum prediction accuracy for operational applications with this model , a systematic evaluation of several hydrologic and meteorologic variables is first necessary. Six input options to the computer program that control prediction accuracy are developed and demonstrated. Predictions of streamflow can be made at any time and for any length of season, although accuracy is usually poor for early-season predictions (before December 1) or for short seasons (less than 15 days). The coefficient of prediction (CP), the chief measure of accuracy used in this manual, approaches zero during the late autumn and early winter seasons and reaches a maximum of about 0.85 during the spring snowmelt season. (Kosco-USGS)

Stormwater quality processes for three land-use areas in Broward County, Florida

USGS Publications Warehouse

Mattraw, H.C.; Miller, Robert A.

1981-01-01

Systematic collection and chemical analysis of stormwater runoff samples from three small urban areas in Broward County, Florida, were obtained between 1974 and 1977. Thirty or more runoff-constituent loads were computed for each of the homogeneous land-use areas. The areas sampled were single family residential, highway, and a commercial shopping center. Rainfall , runoff, and nutrient and metal analyses were stored in a data-management system. The data-management system permitted computation of loads, publication of basic-data reports and the interface of environmental and load information with a comprehensive statistical analysis system. Seven regression models relating water quality loads to characteristics of peak discharge, antecedent conditions, season, storm duration and rainfall intensity were constructed for each of the three sites. Total water-quality loads were computed for the collection period by summing loads for individual storms. Loads for unsampled storms were estimated by using regression models and records of storm precipitation. Loadings, pounds per day per acre of hydraulically effective impervious area, were computed for the three land-use types. Total nitrogen, total phosphorus, and total residue loadings were highest in the residential area. Chemical oxygen demand and total lead loadings were highest in the commercial area. Loadings of atmospheric fallout on each watershed were estimated by bulk precipitation samples collected at the highway and commercial site. (USGS)

Using Gridded Snow Covered Area and Snow-Water Equivalence Spatial Data Sets to Improve Snow-Pack Depletion Simulation in a Continental Scale Hydrologic Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Risley, J. C.; Tracey, J. A.; Markstrom, S. L.; Hay, L.

2014-12-01

Snow cover areal depletion curves were used in a continuous daily hydrologic model to simulate seasonal spring snowmelt during the period between maximum snowpack accumulation and total melt. The curves are defined as the ratio of snow-water equivalence (SWE) divided by the seasonal maximum snow-water equivalence (Ai) (Y axis) versus the percent snow cover area (SCA) (X axis). The slope of the curve can vary depending on local watershed conditions. Windy sparsely vegetated high elevation watersheds, for example, can have a steeper slope than lower elevation forested watersheds. To improve the accuracy of simulated runoff at ungaged watersheds, individual snow cover areal depletion curves were created for over 100,000 hydrologic response units (HRU) in the continental scale U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) National Hydrologic Model (NHM). NHM includes the same components of the USGS Precipitation-Runoff-Modeling System (PRMS), except it uses consistent land surface characterization and model parameterization across the U.S. continent. Weighted-mean daily time series of 1-kilometer gridded SWE, from Snow Data Assimilation System (SNODAS), and 500-meter gridded SCA, from Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS), for 2003-2014 were computed for each HRU using the USGS Geo Data Portal. Using a screening process, pairs of SWE/Ai and SCA from the snowmelt period of each year were selected. SCA values derived from imagery that did not have any cloud cover and were >0 and <100 percent were selected. Unrealistically low and high SCA values that were paired with high and low SWE/Ai ratios, respectively, were removed. Second order polynomial equations were then fit to the remaining pairs of SWE/Ai and SCA to create a unique curve for each HRU. Simulations comparing these new curves with an existing single default curve in NHM will be made to determine if there are significant improvements in runoff.

Use of the Water, Energy, and Biogeochemical Model (WEBMOD) to Simulate Water Quality at Five U.S. Geological Survey Research Watersheds

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Webb, R. M.; Leavesley, G. H.; Shanley, J. B.; Peters, N. E.; Aulenbach, B. T.; Blum, A. E.; Campbell, D. H.; Clow, D. W.; Mast, M. A.; Stallard, R. F.; Larsen, M. C.; Troester, J. W.; Walker, J. F.; White, A. F.

2003-12-01

The Water, Energy, and Biogeochemical Model (WEBMOD) was developed as an aid to compare and contrast basic hydrologic and biogeochemical processes active in the diverse hydroclimatic regions represented by the five U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) Water, Energy, and Biogeochemical Budget (WEBB) sites: Loch Vale, Colorado; Trout Lake, Wisconsin; Sleepers River, Vermont; Panola Mountain, Georgia; and Luquillo Experimental Forest, Puerto Rico. WEBMOD simulates solute concentrations for vegetation canopy, snow pack, impermeable ground, leaf litter, unsaturated and saturated soil zones, riparian zones and streams using selected process modules coupled within the USGS Modular Modeling System (MMS). Source codes for the MMS hydrologic modules include the USGS Precipitation Runoff Modeling System, the National Weather Service Hydro-17 snow model, and TOPMODEL. The hydrologic modules distribute precipitation and temperature to predict evapotranspiration, snow accumulation, snow melt, and streamflow. Streamflow generation mechanisms include infiltration excess, saturated overland flow, preferential lateral flow, and base flow. Input precipitation chemistry, and fluxes and residence times predicted by the hydrologic modules are input into the geochemical module where solute concentrations are computed for a series of discrete well-mixed reservoirs using calls to the geochemical engine PHREEQC. WEBMOD was used to better understand variations in water quality observed at the WEBB sites from October 1991 through September 1997. Initial calibrations were completed by fitting the simulated hydrographs with those measured at the watershed outlets. Model performance was then refined by comparing the predicted export of conservative chemical tracers such as chloride, with those measured at the watershed outlets. The model succeeded in duplicating the temporal variability of net exports of major ions from the watersheds.

Application of a Nested Modeling Approach Using the Precipitation Runoff Modeling System in the Apalachicola-Chattahoochee-Flint River Basin in the Southeastern USA

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lafontaine, J.; Hay, L.; Viger, R.; Markstrom, S. L.

2010-12-01

In order to help environmental resource managers assess potential effects of climate change on ecosystems, the Southeast Regional Assessment Project (SERAP) began in 2009. One component of the SERAP is development and calibration of a set of multi-resolution hydrologic models of the Apalachicola-Chattahoochee-Flint (ACF) River Basin. The ACF River Basin is home to multiple fish and wildlife species of conservation concern, is regionally important for water supply, and has been a recent focus of complementary environmental and climate-change research. Hydrologic models of varying spatial extents and resolutions are required to address varied local to regional water-resource management questions as required by the scope and limits of potential management actions. These models were developed using the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) Precipitation Runoff Modeling System (PRMS). The coarse-resolution model for the ACF Basin has a contributing area of approximately 19,200 mi2 with the model outlet located at the USGS streamflow gage on the Apalachicola River near Sumatra, Florida. Six fine-resolution PRMS models ranging in size from 153 mi2 to 1,040 mi2 are nested within the coarse-scale model, and have been developed for the following basins: upper Chattahoochee, Chestatee, and Chipola Rivers, Ichawaynochaway, Potato, and Spring Creeks. All of the models simulate basin hydrology using a daily time-step, measured climate data, and basin characteristics such as land cover and topography. Measured streamflow data are used to calibrate and evaluate computed basin hydrology. Land cover projections will be used in conjunction with downscaled Global Climate Model results to project future hydrologic conditions for this set of models.

The watershed and river systems management program

USGS Publications Warehouse

Markstrom, S.L.; Frevert, D.; Leavesley, G.H.; ,

2005-01-01

The Watershed and River System Management Program (WaRSMP), a joint effort between the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) and the U.S. Bureau of Reclamation (Reclamation), is focused on research and development of decision support systems and their application to achieve an equitable balance among diverse water resource management demands. Considerations include: (1) legal and political constraints; (2) stake holder and consensus-building; (3) sound technical knowledge; (4) flood control, consumptive use, and hydropower; (5) water transfers; (6) irrigation return flows and water quality; (7) recreation; (8) habitat for endangered species; (9) water supply and proration; (10) near-surface groundwater; and (11) water ownership, accounting, and rights. To address the interdisciplinary and multi-stake holder needs of real-time watershed management, WaRSMP has developed a decision support system toolbox. The USGS Object User Interface facilitates the coupling of Reclamation's RiverWare reservoir operations model with the USGS Modular Modeling and Precipitation Runoff Modeling Systems through a central database. This integration is accomplished through the use of Model and Data Management Interfaces. WaRSMP applications include Colorado River Main stem and Gunnison Basin, the Yakima Basin, the Middle Rio Grande Basin, the Truckee-Carson Basin, and the Umatilla Basin.

USGS research on three mid-latitude glaciers

USGS Publications Warehouse

Green, J.R.; DeWayne, Cecil L.; Naftz, D.L.; Schuster, P.F.

2000-01-01

Low- and mid-latitude regions of the earth are home to 80 to 90 percent of the world's population. Because of this, the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) is conducting a research program to study the geochemistry of precipitation, snow, ice, and runoff samples from mid-latitude glaciers in Kyrghyzstan, Nepal, and the United States, Areas of research, such as ground-water studies, reconstructing paleoclimate records, describing anthropogenic input of chemicals to the environment, and modeling global climate, are important to the well being of the worlds' population and can be supplemented by the collection and chemical analysis of snow and ice cores. Nearly all the constituents that compose snow and ice-core samples contribute vital information, whether it be the microbial communities that flourish in snow, radionuclides present in various amounts in all the samples, or location-specific deposits of mercury and nitrate. This work is hastened by the fact that mid-latitude glaciers, and the information preserved in them, are rapidly disappearing as a result of global warming. Research collaboration for this project includes 12 national and 7 international universities, and 4 government agencies. Funding is provided by the National Science Foundation, the U.S. Department of Energy, and the USGS.

Report of the River Master of the Delaware River for the period December 1, 1983 - November 30, 1984

USGS Publications Warehouse

Schaefer, F.T.; Harkness, W.E.; Baebenroth, R.W.; Speight, D.W.

1985-01-01

A Decree of the U.S. Supreme Court in 1954 established the position of Delaware River Master. The Decree authorizes diversions of water from the Delaware River basin and requires compensating releases from certain reservoirs of the City of New York to be made under the supervision and direction of the River Master. Reports to the Court, not less frequently than annually were stipulated. During the 1984 report year, December 1, 1983 to November 30, 1984, precipitation and runoff varied from above average to below average in the Delaware River basin. For the year as a whole, precipitation and runoff were near average. Operations were under a status of drought warning December 1, 1983; however, the above normal precipitation the first half of the year increased storage in the reservoirs to record levels by June 1, 1984. Below normal precipitation from August to November coupled with large releases to maintain the Montague flow objective and customary diversions for water supply reduced storage in the reservoirs to the drought-warning level by November 27. Diversions from the Delaware River basin by New York City and New Jersey conformed to the terms of the Amended Decree throughout the year. Releases were made as directed by the River Master at rates designed to meet the Montague flow objective on 127 days between June 23 and November 30. Releases were made at conservation rates or at rates designed to relieve thermal stress in the streams downstream from the reservoirs at other times. (USGS)

Kriging analysis of mean annual precipitation, Powder River Basin, Montana and Wyoming

USGS Publications Warehouse

Karlinger, M.R.; Skrivan, James A.

1981-01-01

Kriging is a statistical estimation technique for regionalized variables which exhibit an autocorrelation structure. Such structure can be described by a semi-variogram of the observed data. The kriging estimate at any point is a weighted average of the data, where the weights are determined using the semi-variogram and an assumed drift, or lack of drift, in the data. Block, or areal, estimates can also be calculated. The kriging algorithm, based on unbiased and minimum-variance estimates, involves a linear system of equations to calculate the weights. Kriging variances can then be used to give confidence intervals of the resulting estimates. Mean annual precipitation in the Powder River basin, Montana and Wyoming, is an important variable when considering restoration of coal-strip-mining lands of the region. Two kriging analyses involving data at 60 stations were made--one assuming no drift in precipitation, and one a partial quadratic drift simulating orographic effects. Contour maps of estimates of mean annual precipitation were similar for both analyses, as were the corresponding contours of kriging variances. Block estimates of mean annual precipitation were made for two subbasins. Runoff estimates were 1-2 percent of the kriged block estimates. (USGS)

Variation of Runoff and Precipitation in the Hekou-Longmen Region of the Yellow River Based on Elasticity Analysis

PubMed Central

Li, Erhui; Mu, Xingmin; Zhao, Guangju; Gao, Peng; Shao, Hongbo

2014-01-01

Precipitation is very important to the formation of runoff, and studying of runoff variation and its response to precipitation has practical significance to sustainable utilization of water resources. The study used Mann-Kendall test, anomaly accumulation method, and precipitation elasticity of runoff method to analyze the changes in the relation of precipitation and runoff and the contribution of precipitation to runoff change in the Hekou-Longmen region (from 1957 to 2010), Huangfuchuan watershed (from 1954 to 2010), and Yanhe watershed (from 1952 to 2010) in the middle reaches of the Yellow River. The results showed that runoff appeared a significant decreasing trend (P = 0.01) while it was not significant in precipitation in all study areas. In particular, the reductions of average annual runoff in the Hekou-Longmen region, Huangfuchuan watershed, and Yanhe watershed were 72.7%, 87.5%, and 32.2%, respectively, during 2000–2010 compared to the 1950s. There existed two abrupt change points of the runoff in the Hekou-Longmen region and Huangfuchuan watershed, which were detected in 1979 and 1998. But in the Yanhe watershed only one abrupt change point was found in 1996. The precipitation elasticities of runoff were 1.11, 1.09, and 1.26, respectively, and the contributions of precipitation on runoff reduction were 26.4%, 17.9%, and 31.6%, respectively, in the Hekou-Longmen region, Huangfuchuan watershed, and Yanhe watershed. PMID:24955424

Variation of runoff and precipitation in the Hekou-Longmen region of the Yellow River based on elasticity analysis.

PubMed

Li, Erhui; Mu, Xingmin; Zhao, Guangju; Gao, Peng; Shao, Hongbo

2014-01-01

Precipitation is very important to the formation of runoff, and studying of runoff variation and its response to precipitation has practical significance to sustainable utilization of water resources. The study used Mann-Kendall test, anomaly accumulation method, and precipitation elasticity of runoff method to analyze the changes in the relation of precipitation and runoff and the contribution of precipitation to runoff change in the Hekou-Longmen region (from 1957 to 2010), Huangfuchuan watershed (from 1954 to 2010), and Yanhe watershed (from 1952 to 2010) in the middle reaches of the Yellow River. The results showed that runoff appeared a significant decreasing trend (P = 0.01) while it was not significant in precipitation in all study areas. In particular, the reductions of average annual runoff in the Hekou-Longmen region, Huangfuchuan watershed, and Yanhe watershed were 72.7%, 87.5%, and 32.2%, respectively, during 2000-2010 compared to the 1950s. There existed two abrupt change points of the runoff in the Hekou-Longmen region and Huangfuchuan watershed, which were detected in 1979 and 1998. But in the Yanhe watershed only one abrupt change point was found in 1996. The precipitation elasticities of runoff were 1.11, 1.09, and 1.26, respectively, and the contributions of precipitation on runoff reduction were 26.4%, 17.9%, and 31.6%, respectively, in the Hekou-Longmen region, Huangfuchuan watershed, and Yanhe watershed.

Quantifying the Contribution of Regional Aquifers to Stream Flow in the Upper Colorado River Basin

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Masbruch, M.; Dickinson, J.

2017-12-01

The growing population of the arid and semiarid southwestern U.S. relies on over-allocated surface water resources and poorly quantified groundwater resources. In the Upper Colorado River Basin, recent studies have found that about 50 percent of the surface water at U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) stream gages is derived from groundwater contributions as base flow. Prior USGS and other studies for the Colorado Plateau region have mainly examined groundwater and surface water as separate systems, and there has yet to be regional synthesis of groundwater availability in aquifers that contribute to surface water. A more physically based representation of groundwater flow could improve simulations of surface-water capture by groundwater pumping, and changes of groundwater discharge to surface water caused by possible shifts in the distribution, magnitude, and timing of recharge in the future. We seek to improve conceptual and numerical models of groundwater and surface-water interactions in the Colorado Plateau region as part of a USGS regional groundwater availability assessment. Numerical modeling is used to simulate and quantify the base flow from groundwater to the Colorado River and its major tributaries. Groundwater/surface-water interactions will be simulated using the USGS code GSFLOW, which couples the Precipitation Runoff Modeling System (PRMS) to the groundwater flow model MODFLOW. Initial results suggest that interactions between groundwater and surface water are important for projecting long-term changes in surface water budgets.

Cerro Grande Fire Impact to Water Quality and Stream Flow near Los Alamos National Laboratory: Results of Four Years of Monitoring

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

B.M. Gallaher; R.J. Koch

2004-09-15

In May 2000, the Cerro Grande fire burned about 7400 acres of mixed conifer forest on the Los Alamos National Laboratory (LANL), and much of the 10,000 acres of mountainside draining onto LANL was severely burned. The resulting burned landscapes raised concerns of increased storm runoff and transport of contaminants by runoff in the canyons traversing LANL. The first storms after the fire produced runoff peaks that were more than 200 times greater than prefire levels. Total runoff volume for the year 2000 increased 50% over prefire years, despite a decline in total precipitation of 13% below normal and amore » general decrease in the number of monsoonal thunderstorms. The majority of runoff in 2000 occurred in the canyons at LANL south of Pueblo Canyon (70%), where the highest runoff volume occurred in Water Canyon and the peak discharge occurred in Pajarito Canyon. This report describes the observed effects of the Cerro Grande fire and related environmental impacts to watersheds at and near Los Alamos National Laboratory (LANL) for the first four runoff seasons after the fire, from 2000 through 2003. Spatial and temporal trends in radiological and chemical constituents that were identified as being associated with the Cerro Grande fire and those that were identified as being associated with historic LANL discharges are evaluated with regard to impacts to the Rio Grande and area reservoirs downstream of LANL. The results of environmental sampling performed by LANL, the New Mexico Environment Department (NMED), and U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) after the Cerro Grande fire are included in the evaluation. Effects are described for storm runoff, baseflow, stream sediments, and area regional reservoir sediment.« less

SWB Groundwater Recharge Analysis, Catalina Island, California: Assessing Spatial and Temporal Recharge Patterns Within a Mediterranean Climate Zone

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Harlow, J.

2017-12-01

Groundwater recharge quantification is a key parameter for sustainable groundwater management. Many recharge quantification techniques have been devised, each with advantages and disadvantages. A free, GIS based recharge quantification tool - the Soil Water Balance (SWB) model - was developed by the USGS to produce fine-tuned recharge constraints in watersheds and illuminate spatial and temporal dynamics of recharge. The subject of this research is to examine SWB within a Mediterranean climate zone, focusing on the Catalina Island, California. This project relied on publicly available online resources with the exception the geospatial processing software, ArcGIS. Daily climate station precipitation and temperature data was obtained from the Desert Research Institute for the years 2008-2014. Precipitation interpolations were performed with ArcGIS using the Natural Neighbor method. The USGS-National Map Viewer (NMV) website provided a 30-meter DEM - to interpolate high and low temperature ASCII grids using the Temperature Lapse Rate (TLR) method, to construct a D-8 flow direction grid for downhill redirection of soil-moisture saturated runoff toward non-saturated cells, and for aesthetic map creation. NMV also provided a modified Anderson land cover classification raster. The US Department of Agriculture-National Resource Conservation Service (NRCS) Web Soil Survey website provided shapefiles of soil water capacity and hydrologic soil groups. The Hargreaves and Samani method was implemented to determine evapotranspiration rates. The resulting SWB output data, in the form of ASCII grids are easily added to ArcGIS for quick visualization and data analysis (Figure 1). Calculated average recharge for 2008-2014 was 3537 inches/year, or 0.0174 acre feet/year. Recharge was 10.2% of the islands gross precipitation. The spatial distribution of the most significant recharge is in hotspots which dominate the residential hills above Avalon, followed by grassy/unvegetated areas associated with dirt roads, and then higher elevation southeast-eastern facing slopes. The greatest large-scale concentration of recharge is centered in the area from Two Harbors to Blackjack Mountain. Further examination within this project will determine parameter significance to recharge and runoff.

Variations of annual and seasonal runoff in Guangdong Province, south China: spatiotemporal patterns and possible causes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, Qiang; Xiao, Mingzhong; Singh, Vijay P.; Xu, Chong-Yu; Li, Jianfeng

2015-06-01

In this study, we thoroughly analyzed spatial and temporal distributions of runoff and their relation with precipitation changes based on monthly runoff dataset at 25 hydrological stations and monthly precipitation at 127 stations in Guangdong Province, south China. Trends of the runoff and precipitation are detected using Mann-Kendall trend test technique. Correlations between runoff and precipitation are tested using Spearman's and Pearson's correlation coefficients. The results indicate that: (1) annual maximum monthly runoff is mainly in decreasing tendency and significant increasing annual minimum monthly runoff is observed in the northern and eastern Guangdong Province. In addition, annual mean runoff is observed to be increasing at the stations located in the West and North Rivers and the coastal region; (2) analysis of seasonal runoff variations indicates increasing runoff in spring, autumn and winter. Wherein, significant increase of runoff is found at 8 stations and only 3 stations are dominated by decreasing runoff in winter; (3) runoff changes of the Guangdong Province are mainly the results of precipitation changes. The Guangdong Province is wetter in winter, spring and autumn. Summer is coming to be drier as reflected by decreasing runoff in the season; (4) both precipitation change and water reservoirs also play important roles in the increasing of annual minimum monthly streamflow. Seasonal shifts of runoff variations may pose new challenges for the water resources management under the influences of climate changes and intensifying human activities.

Analysis of long-term trends (1950–2009) in precipitation, runoff and runoff coefficient in major urban watersheds in the United States

USGS Publications Warehouse

Velpuri, N.M.; Senay, G.B.

2013-01-01

This study investigates the long-term trends in precipitation, runoff and runoff coefficient in major urban watersheds in the United States. The seasonal Mann–Kendall trend test was performed on monthly precipitation, runoff and runoff coefficient data from 1950 to 2009 obtained from 62 urban watersheds covering 21 major urban centers in the United States. The results indicate that only five out of 21 urban centers in the United States showed an uptrend in precipitation. Twelve urban centers showed an uptrend in runoff coefficient. However, six urban centers did not show any trend in runoff coefficient, and three urban centers showed a significant downtrend. The highest rate of change in precipitation, runoff and runoff coefficient was observed in the Houston urban watershed. Based on the results obtained, we also attributed plausible causes for the trends. Our analysis indicated that while a human only influence is observed in most of the urban watersheds, a combined climate and human influence is observed in the central United States.

Mean annual, seasonal, and monthly precipitation and runoff in Arkansas, 1951-2011

USGS Publications Warehouse

Pugh, Aaron L.; Westerman, Drew A.

2014-01-01

This report describes long-term annual, seasonal, and monthly means for precipitation and runoff in Arkansas for the period from 1951 through 2011. Precipitation means were estimated using data from the Parameter-elevation Regressions on Independent Slopes Model database; while total runoff, groundwater runoff, and surface runoff means were estimated using data from 123 active and inactive U.S. Geological Survey continuous-record streamflow-gaging stations located in Arkansas and surrounding States. Annual precipitation in Arkansas for the period from 1951 through 2011 had a mean of 49.8 inches. Of the six physiographic sections in Arkansas, the Ouachita Mountains had the largest mean annual precipitation at 53.0 inches, while the Springfield-Salem plateaus had the smallest mean annual precipitation at 45.5 inches. The mean annual total runoff for Arkansas was 17.8 inches. The Ouachita Mountains had the largest mean annual total runoff at 20.4 inches, while the Springfield-Salem plateaus had the smallest mean annual total runoff at 15.0 inches. Runoff is diminished during the dry season, which is attributed to increased losses from evapotranspiration, consumptive uses including irrigation, and increased withdrawals for public and private water supplies. The decline in runoff during the dry season is observed across the State in all physiographic sections. Spatial results for precipitation and runoff are presented in a series of maps that are available for download from the publication Web page in georeferenced raster formats.

Simulation of streamflow in the Pleasant, Narraguagus, Sheepscot, and Royal Rivers, Maine, using watershed models

USGS Publications Warehouse

Dudley, Robert W.; Nielsen, Martha G.

2011-01-01

The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) began a study in 2008 to investigate anticipated changes in summer streamflows and stream temperatures in four coastal Maine river basins and the potential effects of those changes on populations of endangered Atlantic salmon. To achieve this purpose, it was necessary to characterize the quantity and timing of streamflow in these rivers by developing and evaluating a distributed-parameter watershed model for a part of each river basin by using the USGS Precipitation-Runoff Modeling System (PRMS). The GIS (geographic information system) Weasel, a USGS software application, was used to delineate the four study basins and their many subbasins, and to derive parameters for their geographic features. The models were calibrated using a four-step optimization procedure in which model output was evaluated against four datasets for calibrating solar radiation, potential evapotranspiration, annual and seasonal water balances, and daily streamflows. The calibration procedure involved thousands of model runs that used the USGS software application Luca (Let us calibrate). Luca uses the Shuffled Complex Evolution (SCE) global search algorithm to calibrate the model parameters. The calibrated watershed models performed satisfactorily, in that Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency (NSE) statistic values for the calibration periods ranged from 0.59 to 0.75 (on a scale of negative infinity to 1) and NSE statistic values for the evaluation periods ranged from 0.55 to 0.73. The calibrated watershed models simulate daily streamflow at many locations in each study basin. These models enable natural resources managers to characterize the timing and amount of streamflow in order to support a variety of water-resources efforts including water-quality calculations, assessments of water use, modeling of population dynamics and migration of Atlantic salmon, modeling and assessment of habitat, and simulation of anticipated changes to streamflow and water temperature resulting from changes forecast for air temperature and precipitation.

A historical perspective on precipitation, drought severity, and streamflow in Texas during 1951-56 and 2011

USGS Publications Warehouse

Winters, Karl E.

2013-01-01

Annual mean streamflow and streamflow-duration curves for the 1951–56 and 2011 water years were assessed for 19 unregulated U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) streamflow-gaging stations. At eight of these streamflow-gaging stations, the annual mean streamflow was lower in 2011 than for any year during 1951–56; many of these stations are located in eastern Texas. Annual mean streamflows for streamflow-gaging stations in the Guadalupe, Blanco, and upper Frio River Basins were lower in 1956 than in 2011. The streamflow-duration curves for many streamflow-gaging stations indicate a lack of (or diminished) storm runoff during 2011. Low streamflows (those exceeded 90 to 95 percent of days) were lower for 1956 than for 2011 at seven streamflow-gaging stations. For most of these stations, the lowest of the low streamflows during 1951–56 occurred in 1956. During March to September 2011, record daily lows were measured at USGS streamflow-gaging station 08041500 Village Creek near Kountze, Tex., which has more than 70 years of record. Many other USGS streamflow-gaging stations in Texas started the 2011 water year with normal streamflow but by the end of the water year were flowing at near-record lows.

An analysis of input errors in precipitation-runoff models using regression with errors in the independent variables

USGS Publications Warehouse

Troutman, Brent M.

1982-01-01

Errors in runoff prediction caused by input data errors are analyzed by treating precipitation-runoff models as regression (conditional expectation) models. Independent variables of the regression consist of precipitation and other input measurements; the dependent variable is runoff. In models using erroneous input data, prediction errors are inflated and estimates of expected storm runoff for given observed input variables are biased. This bias in expected runoff estimation results in biased parameter estimates if these parameter estimates are obtained by a least squares fit of predicted to observed runoff values. The problems of error inflation and bias are examined in detail for a simple linear regression of runoff on rainfall and for a nonlinear U.S. Geological Survey precipitation-runoff model. Some implications for flood frequency analysis are considered. A case study using a set of data from Turtle Creek near Dallas, Texas illustrates the problems of model input errors.

Sierra Nevada snowpack and runoff prediction integrating basin-wide wireless-sensor network data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yoon, Y.; Conklin, M. H.; Bales, R. C.; Zhang, Z.; Zheng, Z.; Glaser, S. D.

2016-12-01

We focus on characterizing snowpack and estimating runoff from snowmelt in high elevation area (>2100 m) in Sierra Nevada for daily (for use in, e.g. flood and hydropower forecasting), seasonal (supply prediction), and decadal (long-term planning) time scale. Here, basin-wide wireless-sensor network data (ARHO, http://glaser.berkeley.edu/wsn/) is integrated into the USGS Precipitation-Runoff Modeling System (PRMS), and a case study of the American River basin is presented. In the American River basin, over 140 wireless sensors have been planted in 14 sites considering elevation gradient, slope, aspect, and vegetation density, which provides spatially distributed snow depth, temperature, solar radiation, and soil moisture from 2013. 800 m daily gridded dataset (PRISM) is used as the climate input for the PRMS. Model parameters are obtained from various sources (e.g., NLCD 2011, SSURGO, and NED) with a regionalization method and GIS analysis. We use a stepwise framework for a model calibration to improve model performance and localities of estimates. For this, entire basin is divided into 12 subbasins that include full natural flow measurements. The study period is between 1982 and 2014, which contains three major storm events and recent severe drought. Simulated snow depth and snow water equivalent (SWE) are initially compared with the water year 2014 ARHO observations. The overall results show reasonable agreements having the Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency coefficient (NS) of 0.7, ranged from 0.3 to 0.86. However, the results indicate a tendency to underestimate the SWE in a high elevation area compared with ARHO observations, which is caused by the underestimated PRISM precipitation data. Precipitation at gauge-sparse regions (e.g., high elevation area), in general, cannot be well represented in gridded datasets. Streamflow estimates of the basin outlet have NS of 0.93, percent bias of 7.8%, and normalized root mean square error of 3.6% for the monthly time scale.

Impact of climate variability on runoff in the north-central United States

USGS Publications Warehouse

Ryberg, Karen R.; Lin, Wei; Vecchia, Aldo V.

2014-01-01

Large changes in runoff in the north-central United States have occurred during the past century, with larger floods and increases in runoff tending to occur from the 1970s to the present. The attribution of these changes is a subject of much interest. Long-term precipitation, temperature, and streamflow records were used to compare changes in precipitation and potential evapotranspiration (PET) to changes in runoff within 25 stream basins. The basins studied were organized into four groups, each one representing basins similar in topography, climate, and historic patterns of runoff. Precipitation, PET, and runoff data were adjusted for near-decadal scale variability to examine longer-term changes. A nonlinear water-balance analysis shows that changes in precipitation and PET explain the majority of multidecadal spatial/temporal variability of runoff and flood magnitudes, with precipitation being the dominant driver. Historical changes in climate and runoff in the region appear to be more consistent with complex transient shifts in seasonal climatic conditions than with gradual climate change. A portion of the unexplained variability likely stems from land-use change.

Precipitation and runoff water quality from an urban parking lot and implications for tree growth

Treesearch

C. H. Pham; H. G. Halverson; G. M. Heisler

1978-01-01

The water quality of precipitation and runoff from a large parking lot in New Brunswick, New Jersey was studied during the early growing season, from March to June 1976. Precipitation and runoff from 10 storms were analyzed. The runoff was higher in all constituents considered except for P, Pb, and Cu. Compared with published values for natural waters, sewage effluent...

Stormwater-runoff data for a commercial area, Broward County, Florida

USGS Publications Warehouse

Miller, Robert A.; Mattraw, H.C.; Hardee, Jack

1979-01-01

Rainfall, stormwater discharge, and water-quality data for rainfall and runoff are summarized for a commercial area in Fort Lauderdale, Florida. Loads for 20 water-quality constituents were computed for runoff from 31 storms between May 1975 and June 1977. The basin of 20.4 acres contains a shopping center with adjacent parking, and is 97.9 percent impervious. (Woodard-USGS)

Analysis of climate and anthropogenic impacts on runoff in the Lower Pra River Basin of Ghana.

PubMed

Awotwi, Alfred; Anornu, Geophrey Kwame; Quaye-Ballard, Jonathan; Annor, Thompson; Forkuo, Eric Kwabena

2017-12-01

The Lower Pra River Basin (LPRB), located in the forest zone of southern Ghana has experienced changes due to variability in precipitation and diverse anthropogenic activities. Therefore, to maintain the functions of the ecosystem for water resources management, planning and sustainable development, it is important to differentiate the impacts of precipitation variability and anthropogenic activities on stream flow changes. We investigated the variability in runoff and quantified the contributions of precipitation and anthropogenic activities on runoff at the LPRB. Analysis of the precipitation-runoff for the period 1970-2010 revealed breakpoints in 1986, 2000, 2004 and 2010 in the LPRB. The periods influenced by anthropogenic activities were categorized into three periods 1987-2000, 2001-2004 and 2005-2010, revealing a decrease in runoff during 1987-2000 and an increase in runoff during 2001-2004 and 2005-2010. Assessment of monthly, seasonal and annual runoff depicted a significant increasing trend in the runoff time series during the dry season. Generally, runoff increased at a rate of 9.98 × 10 7 m 3 yr -1 , with precipitation variability and human activities contributing 17.4% and 82.3% respectively. The dominant small scale alluvial gold mining activity significantly contributes to the net runoff variability in LPRB.

Effects of Varying Cloud Cover on Springtime Runoff in California's Sierra Nevada

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sumargo, E.; Cayan, D. R.

2017-12-01

This study investigates how cloud cover modifies snowmelt-runoff processes in Sierra Nevada watersheds during dry and wet periods. We use two of the California Department of Water Resources' (DWR's) quasi-operational models of the Tuolumne and Merced River basins developed from the USGS Precipitation-Runoff Modeling System (PRMS) hydrologic modeling system. Model simulations are conducted after a validated optimization of model performance in simulating recent (1996-2014) historical variability in the Tuolumne and Merced basins using solar radiation (Qsi) derived from Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite (GOES) remote sensing. Specifically, the questions we address are: 1) how sensitive are snowmelt and runoff in the Tuolumne and Merced River basins to Qsi variability associated with cloud cover variations?, and 2) does this sensitivity change in dry vs. wet years? To address these question, we conduct two experiments, where: E1) theoretical clear-sky Qsi is used as an input to PRMS, and E2) the annual harmonic cycle of Qsi is used as an input to PRMS. The resulting hydrographs from these experiments exhibit changes in peak streamflow timing by several days to a few weeks and smaller streamflow variability when compared to the actual flows and the original simulations. For E1, despite some variations, this pattern persists when the result is evaluated for dry-year and wet-year subsets, reflecting the consistently higher Qsi input available. For E2, the hydrograph shows a later spring-summer streamflow peak in the dry-year subset when compared to the original simulations, indicating the relative importance of the modulating effect of cloud cover on snowmelt-runoff in drier years.

Indian monsoon dominates runoff of southern Himalayas—taking Langtang region as an example

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yao, R.; Shi, J.; He, Y.; Hu, G.

2016-12-01

Abstract: Inland Glacier and Indian monsoon are the major source of water supply for human being in the Himalayas. It is vital to study the characteristics of runoff with glacier melting and Indian monsoon precipitation and the relationship between climate change and these processes overall. In this study, we have focused on the Langtang region in the southern slope of the Himalayas. We have used TRMM data to study the precipitation and MODIS data to study the temperature in the Himalayas and a distributed conceptual model has been applied to runoff modeling. The runoff from modeling based on precipitation and temperature can be validated with the in-situ observation in the Langtang region. The results show a decreasing trend of the runoff in the Langtang region which is similar to the decreasing trend of the TRMM precipitation data. It seems that precipitation is mainly controlling the runoff in the Langtang region and that the summer Indian monsoon rather than glacier melting is dominating the runoff in the Langtang region since the summer precipitation in the Southern slope of the Himalayas is mainly from the Indian summer monsoon.

Century-scale variability in global annual runoff examined using a water balance model

USGS Publications Warehouse

McCabe, G.J.; Wolock, D.M.

2011-01-01

A monthly water balance model (WB model) is used with CRUTS2.1 monthly temperature and precipitation data to generate time series of monthly runoff for all land areas of the globe for the period 1905 through 2002. Even though annual precipitation accounts for most of the temporal and spatial variability in annual runoff, increases in temperature have had an increasingly negative effect on annual runoff after 1980. Although the effects of increasing temperature on runoff became more apparent after 1980, the relative magnitude of these effects are small compared to the effects of precipitation on global runoff. ?? 2010 Royal Meteorological Society.

Cross-Regional Assessment Of Coupling And Variability In Precipitation-Runoff Relationships

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Carey, S. K.; Tetzlaff, D.; Soulsby, C.; Buttle, J. M.; Laudon, H.; McDonnell, J. J.; McGuire, K. J.; Seibert, J.; Shanley, J. B.

2011-12-01

The higher mid-latitudes of the northern hemisphere are particularly sensitive to change due to the important role the zero-degree isotherm plays in the phase of precipitation and intermediate storage as snow. An international inter-catchment comparison program North-Watch seeks to improve our understanding of the sensitivity of northern catchments to change by examining their hydrological and biogeochemical variability and response. The catchments are located in Sweden (Krycklan), Scotland (Mharcaidh, Girnock and Strontian), the United States (Sleepers River, Hubbard Brook and HJ Andrews) and Canada (Catamaran, Dorset and Wolf Creek). For this study, 8 catchments with 10 continuous years of daily precipitation and runoff data were selected to assess the seasonal coupling of rainfall and runoff and the memory effect of runoff events on the hydrograph at different time scales. To assess the coupling and synchroneity of precipitation, continuous wavelet transforms and wavelet coherence were used. Wavelet spectra identified the relative importance of both annual versus seasonal flows while wavelet coherence was applied to identify over different time scales along the 10-year window how well precipitation and runoff were coupled. For example, while on a given day, precipitation may be closely coupled to runoff, a wet year may not necessarily be a high runoff year in catchments with large storage. Assessing different averaging periods in the variation of daily flows highlights the importance of seasonality in runoff response and the relative influence of rain versus snowmelt on flow magnitude and variability. Wet catchments with limited seasonal precipitation variability (Strontian, Girnock) have precipitation signals more closely coupled with runoff, whereas dryer catchments dominated by snow (Wolf Creek, Krycklan) have strongly coupling only during freshet. Most catchments with highly seasonal precipitation show strong intermittent coupling during their wet season. At longer time scales, some catchments do not exhibit coupling in their input-output relations, which is related to catchment storage.

Annual regression-based estimates of evapotranspiration for the contiguous United States based on climate, remote sensing, and stream gage data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Reitz, M. D.; Sanford, W. E.; Senay, G. B.; Cazenas, J.

2015-12-01

Evapotranspiration (ET) is a key quantity in the hydrologic cycle, accounting for ~70% of precipitation across the contiguous United States (CONUS). However, it is a challenge to estimate, due to difficulty in making direct measurements and gaps in our theoretical understanding. Here we present a new data-driven, ~1km2 resolution map of long-term average actual evapotranspiration rates across the CONUS. The new ET map is a function of the USGS Landsat-derived National Land Cover Database (NLCD), precipitation, temperature, and daily average temperature range (from the PRISM climate dataset), and is calibrated to long-term water balance data from 679 watersheds. It is unique from previously presented ET maps in that (1) it was co-developed with estimates of runoff and recharge; (2) the regression equation was chosen from among many tested, previously published and newly proposed functional forms for its optimal description of long-term water balance ET data; (3) it has values over open-water areas that are derived from separate mass-transfer and humidity equations; and (4) the data include additional precipitation representing amounts converted from 2005 USGS water-use census irrigation data. The regression equation is calibrated using data from 2000-2013, but can also be applied to individual years with their corresponding input datasets. Comparisons among this new map, the more detailed remote-sensing-based estimates of MOD16 and SSEBop, and AmeriFlux ET tower measurements shows encouraging consistency, and indicates that the empirical ET estimate approach presented here produces closer agreement with independent flux tower data for annual average actual ET than other more complex remote sensing approaches.

Watershed scale response to climate change--Trout Lake Basin, Wisconsin

USGS Publications Warehouse

Walker, John F.; Hunt, Randall J.; Hay, Lauren E.; Markstrom, Steven L.

2012-01-01

Fourteen basins for which the Precipitation Runoff Modeling System has been calibrated and evaluated were selected as study sites. Precipitation Runoff Modeling System is a deterministic, distributed parameter watershed model developed to evaluate the effects of various combinations of precipitation, temperature, and land use on streamflow and general basin hydrology. Output from five General Circulation Model simulations and four emission scenarios were used to develop an ensemble of climate-change scenarios for each basin. These ensembles were simulated with the corresponding Precipitation Runoff Modeling System model. This fact sheet summarizes the hydrologic effect and sensitivity of the Precipitation Runoff Modeling System simulations to climate change for the Trout River Basin at Trout Lake in northern Wisconsin.

Watershed scale response to climate change--Clear Creek Basin, Iowa

USGS Publications Warehouse

Christiansen, Daniel E.; Hay, Lauren E.; Markstrom, Steven L.

2012-01-01

Fourteen basins for which the Precipitation Runoff Modeling System has been calibrated and evaluated were selected as study sites. Precipitation Runoff Modeling System is a deterministic, distributed parameter watershed model developed to evaluate the effects of various combinations of precipitation, temperature, and land use on streamflow and general basin hydrology. Output from five General Circulation Model simulations and four emission scenarios were used to develop an ensemble of climate-change scenarios for each basin. These ensembles were simulated with the corresponding Precipitation Runoff Modeling System model. This fact sheet summarizes the hydrologic effect and sensitivity of the Precipitation Runoff Modeling System simulations to climate change for the Clear Creek Basin, near Coralville, Iowa.

Watershed scale response to climate change--Feather River Basin, California

USGS Publications Warehouse

Koczot, Kathryn M.; Markstrom, Steven L.; Hay, Lauren E.

2012-01-01

Fourteen basins for which the Precipitation Runoff Modeling System has been calibrated and evaluated were selected as study sites. Precipitation Runoff Modeling System is a deterministic, distributed parameter watershed model developed to evaluate the effects of various combinations of precipitation, temperature, and land use on streamflow and general basin hydrology. Output from five General Circulation Model simulations and four emission scenarios were used to develop an ensemble of climate-change scenarios for each basin. These ensembles were simulated with the corresponding Precipitation Runoff Modeling System model. This fact sheet summarizes the hydrologic effect and sensitivity of the Precipitation Runoff Modeling System simulations to climate change for the Feather River Basin, California.

Watershed scale response to climate change--South Fork Flathead River Basin, Montana

USGS Publications Warehouse

Chase, Katherine J.; Hay, Lauren E.; Markstrom, Steven L.

2012-01-01

Fourteen basins for which the Precipitation Runoff Modeling System has been calibrated and evaluated were selected as study sites. Precipitation Runoff Modeling System is a deterministic, distributed parameter watershed model developed to evaluate the effects of various combinations of precipitation, temperature, and land use on streamflow and general basin hydrology. Output from five General Circulation Model simulations and four emission scenarios were used to develop an ensemble of climate-change scenarios for each basin. These ensembles were simulated with the corresponding Precipitation Runoff Modeling System model. This fact sheet summarizes the hydrologic effect and sensitivity of the Precipitation Runoff Modeling System simulations to climate change for the South Fork Flathead River Basin, Montana.

Watershed scale response to climate change--Cathance Stream Basin, Maine

USGS Publications Warehouse

Dudley, Robert W.; Hay, Lauren E.; Markstrom, Steven L.; Hodgkins, Glenn A.

2012-01-01

Fourteen basins for which the Precipitation Runoff Modeling System has been calibrated and evaluated were selected as study sites. Precipitation Runoff Modeling System is a deterministic, distributed parameter watershed model developed to evaluate the effects of various combinations of precipitation, temperature, and land use on streamflow and general basin hydrology. Output from five General Circulation Model simulations and four emission scenarios were used to develop an ensemble of climate-change scenarios for each basin. These ensembles were simulated with the corresponding Precipitation Runoff Modeling System model. This fact sheet summarizes the hydrologic effect and sensitivity of the Precipitation Runoff Modeling System simulations to climate change for the Cathance Stream Basin, Maine.

Watershed scale response to climate change--Pomperaug River Watershed, Connecticut

USGS Publications Warehouse

Bjerklie, David M.; Hay, Lauren E.; Markstrom, Steven L.

2012-01-01

Fourteen basins for which the Precipitation Runoff Modeling System has been calibrated and evaluated were selected as study sites. Precipitation Runoff Modeling System is a deterministic, distributed parameter watershed model developed to evaluate the effects of various combinations of precipitation, temperature, and land use on streamflow and general basin hydrology. Output from five General Circulation Model simulations and four emission scenarios were used to develop an ensemble of climate-change scenarios for each basin. These ensembles were simulated with the corresponding Precipitation Runoff Modeling System model. This fact sheet summarizes the hydrologic effect and sensitivity of the Precipitation Runoff Modeling System simulations to climate change for the Pomperaug River Basin at Southbury, Connecticut.

Watershed scale response to climate change--Starkweather Coulee Basin, North Dakota

USGS Publications Warehouse

Vining, Kevin C.; Hay, Lauren E.; Markstrom, Steven L.

2012-01-01

Fourteen basins for which the Precipitation Runoff Modeling System has been calibrated and evaluated were selected as study sites. Precipitation Runoff Modeling System is a deterministic, distributed parameter watershed model developed to evaluate the effects of various combinations of precipitation, temperature, and land use on streamflow and general basin hydrology. Output from five General Circulation Model simulations and four emission scenarios were used to develop an ensemble of climate-change scenarios for each basin. These ensembles were simulated with the corresponding Precipitation Runoff Modeling System model. This fact sheet summarizes the hydrologic effect and sensitivity of the Precipitation Runoff Modeling System simulations to climate change for the Starkweather Coulee Basin near Webster, North Dakota.

Watershed scale response to climate change--Sagehen Creek Basin, California

USGS Publications Warehouse

Markstrom, Steven L.; Hay, Lauren E.; Regan, R. Steven

2012-01-01

Fourteen basins for which the Precipitation Runoff Modeling System has been calibrated and evaluated were selected as study sites. Precipitation Runoff Modeling System is a deterministic, distributed parameter watershed model developed to evaluate the effects of various combinations of precipitation, temperature, and land use on streamflow and general basin hydrology. Output from five General Circulation Model simulations and four emission scenarios were used to develop an ensemble of climate-change scenarios for each basin. These ensembles were simulated with the corresponding Precipitation Runoff Modeling System model. This fact sheet summarizes the hydrologic effect and sensitivity of the Precipitation Runoff Modeling System simulations to climate change for the Sagehen Creek Basin near Truckee, California.

Watershed scale response to climate change--Sprague River Basin, Oregon

USGS Publications Warehouse

Risley, John; Hay, Lauren E.; Markstrom, Steven L.

2012-01-01

Fourteen basins for which the Precipitation Runoff Modeling System has been calibrated and evaluated were selected as study sites. Precipitation Runoff Modeling System is a deterministic, distributed parameter watershed model developed to evaluate the effects of various combinations of precipitation, temperature, and land use on streamflow and general basin hydrology. Output from five General Circulation Model simulations and four emission scenarios were used to develop an ensemble of climate-change scenarios for each basin. These ensembles were simulated with the corresponding Precipitation Runoff Modeling System model. This fact sheet summarizes the hydrologic effect and sensitivity of the Precipitation Runoff Modeling System simulations to climate change for the Sprague River Basin near Chiloquin, Oregon.

Watershed scale response to climate change--Black Earth Creek Basin, Wisconsin

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hunt, Randall J.; Walker, John F.; Westenbroek, Steven M.; Hay, Lauren E.; Markstrom, Steven L.

2012-01-01

Fourteen basins for which the Precipitation Runoff Modeling System has been calibrated and evaluated were selected as study sites. Precipitation Runoff Modeling System is a deterministic, distributed parameter watershed model developed to evaluate the effects of various combinations of precipitation, temperature, and land use on streamflow and general basin hydrology. Output from five General Circulation Model simulations and four emission scenarios were used to develop an ensemble of climate-change scenarios for each basin. These ensembles were simulated with the corresponding Precipitation Runoff Modeling System model. This fact sheet summarizes the hydrologic effect and sensitivity of the Precipitation Runoff Modeling System simulations to climate change for the Black Earth Creek Basin, Wisconsin.

Watershed scale response to climate change--East River Basin, Colorado

USGS Publications Warehouse

Battaglin, William A.; Hay, Lauren E.; Markstrom, Steven L.

2012-01-01

Fourteen basins for which the Precipitation Runoff Modeling System has been calibrated and evaluated were selected as study sites. Precipitation Runoff Modeling System is a deterministic, distributed parameter watershed model developed to evaluate the effects of various combinations of precipitation, temperature, and land use on streamflow and general basin hydrology. Output from five General Circulation Model simulations and four emission scenarios were used to develop an ensemble of climate-change scenarios for each basin. These ensembles were simulated with the corresponding Precipitation Runoff Modeling System model. This fact sheet summarizes the hydrologic effect and sensitivity of the Precipitation Runoff Modeling System simulations to climate change for the East River Basin, Colorado.

Watershed scale response to climate change--Naches River Basin, Washington

USGS Publications Warehouse

Mastin, Mark C.; Hay, Lauren E.; Markstrom, Steven L.

2012-01-01

Fourteen basins for which the Precipitation Runoff Modeling System has been calibrated and evaluated were selected as study sites. Precipitation Runoff Modeling System is a deterministic, distributed parameter watershed model developed to evaluate the effects of various combinations of precipitation, temperature, and land use on streamflow and general basin hydrology. Output from five General Circulation Model simulations and four emission scenarios were used to develop an ensemble of climate-change scenarios for each basin. These ensembles were simulated with the corresponding Precipitation Runoff Modeling System model. This fact sheet summarizes the hydrologic effect and sensitivity of the Precipitation Runoff Modeling System simulations to climate change for the Naches River Basin below Tieton River in Washington.

Watershed scale response to climate change--Flint River Basin, Georgia

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hay, Lauren E.; Markstrom, Steven L.

2012-01-01

Fourteen basins for which the Precipitation Runoff Modeling System has been calibrated and evaluated were selected as study sites. Precipitation Runoff Modeling System is a deterministic, distributed parameter watershed model developed to evaluate the effects of various combinations of precipitation, temperature, and land use on streamflow and general basin hydrology. Output from five General Circulation Model simulations and four emission scenarios were used to develop an ensemble of climate-change scenarios for each basin. These ensembles were simulated with the corresponding Precipitation Runoff Modeling System model. This fact sheet summarizes the hydrologic effect and sensitivity of the Precipitation Runoff Modeling System simulations to climate change for the Flint River Basin at Montezuma, Georgia.

Somerset County Flood Information System

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hoppe, Heidi L.

2007-01-01

The timely warning of a flood is crucial to the protection of lives and property. One has only to recall the floods of August 2, 1973, September 16 and 17, 1999, and April 16, 2007, in Somerset County, New Jersey, in which lives were lost and major property damage occurred, to realize how costly, especially in terms of human life, an unexpected flood can be. Accurate forecasts and warnings cannot be made, however, without detailed information about precipitation and streamflow in the drainage basin. Since the mid 1960's, the National Weather Service (NWS) has been able to forecast flooding on larger streams in Somerset County, such as the Raritan and Millstone Rivers. Flooding on smaller streams in urban areas was more difficult to predict. In response to this problem the NWS, in cooperation with the Green Brook Flood Control Commission, installed a precipitation gage in North Plainfield, and two flash-flood alarms, one on Green Brook at Seeley Mills and one on Stony Brook at Watchung, in the early 1970's. In 1978, New Jersey's first countywide flood-warning system was installed by the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) in Somerset County. This system consisted of a network of eight stage and discharge gages equipped with precipitation gages linked by telephone telemetry and eight auxiliary precipitation gages. The gages were installed throughout the county to collect precipitation and runoff data that could be used to improve flood-monitoring capabilities and flood-frequency estimates. Recognizing the need for more detailed hydrologic information for Somerset County, the USGS, in cooperation with Somerset County, designed and installed the Somerset County Flood Information System (SCFIS) in 1990. This system is part of a statewide network of stream gages, precipitation gages, weather stations, and tide gages that collect data in real time. The data provided by the SCFIS improve the flood forecasting ability of the NWS and aid Somerset County and municipal agencies in the planning and execution of flood-preparation and emergency-evacuation procedures in the county. This fact sheet describes the SCFIS and identifies its benefits.

Changes in precipitation-streamflow transformation around the world: interdecadal variability and trends.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Saft, M.; Peel, M. C.; Andreassian, V.; Parajka, J.; Coxon, G.; Freer, J. E.; Woods, R. A.

2017-12-01

Accurate prediction of hydrologic response to potentially changing climatic forcing is a key current challenge in hydrology. Recent studies exploring decadal to multidecadal climate drying in the African Sahel and south-eastern and south-western Australia demonstrated that long dry periods also had an indirect cumulative impact on streamflow via altered catchment biophysical properties. As a result, hydrologic response to persisting change in climatic conditions, i.e. precipitation, cannot be confidently inferred from the hydrologic response to short-term interannual climate fluctuations of similar magnitude. This study aims to characterise interdecadal changes in precipitation-runoff conversion processes globally. The analysis is based on long continuous records from near-natural baseline catchments in North America, Europe, and Australia. We used several complimentary metrics characterising precipitation-runoff relationship to assess how partitioning changed over recent decades. First, we explore the hypothesis that during particularly dry or wet decades the precipitation elasticity of streamflow increases over what can be expected from inter-annual variability. We found this hypothesis holds for both wet and dry periods in some regions, but not everywhere. Interestingly, trend-like behaviour in the precipitation-runoff partitioning, unrelated to precipitation changes, offset the impact of persisting precipitation change in some regions. Therefore, in the second part of this study we explored longer-term trends in precipitation-runoff partitioning, and related them to climate and streamflow changes. We found significant changes in precipitation-runoff relationship around the world, which implies that runoff response to a given precipitation can vary over decades even in near-natural catchments. When significant changes occur, typically less runoff is generated for a given precipitation over time - even when precipitation is increasing. We discuss the consistency of the results and how the likely drivers differ between regions, and between water-limited and energy limited environments. We argue that when considering the impact of climatic change on hydrological systems we need to consider potential cumulative impacts of climatic shifts.

Modelling surface-water depression storage in a Prairie Pothole Region

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hay, Lauren E.; Norton, Parker A.; Viger, Roland; Markstrom, Steven; Regan, R. Steven; Vanderhoof, Melanie

2018-01-01

In this study, the Precipitation-Runoff Modelling System (PRMS) was used to simulate changes in surface-water depression storage in the 1,126-km2 Upper Pipestem Creek basin located within the Prairie Pothole Region of North Dakota, USA. The Prairie Pothole Region is characterized by millions of small water bodies (or surface-water depressions) that provide numerous ecosystem services and are considered an important contribution to the hydrologic cycle. The Upper Pipestem PRMS model was extracted from the U.S. Geological Survey's (USGS) National Hydrologic Model (NHM), developed to support consistent hydrologic modelling across the conterminous United States. The Geospatial Fabric database, created for the USGS NHM, contains hydrologic model parameter values derived from datasets that characterize the physical features of the entire conterminous United States for 109,951 hydrologic response units. Each hydrologic response unit in the Geospatial Fabric was parameterized using aggregated surface-water depression area derived from the National Hydrography Dataset Plus, an integrated suite of application-ready geospatial datasets. This paper presents a calibration strategy for the Upper Pipestem PRMS model that uses normalized lake elevation measurements to calibrate the parameters influencing simulated fractional surface-water depression storage. Results indicate that inclusion of measurements that give an indication of the change in surface-water depression storage in the calibration procedure resulted in accurate changes in surface-water depression storage in the water balance. Regionalized parameterization of the USGS NHM will require a proxy for change in surface-storage to accurately parameterize surface-water depression storage within the USGS NHM.

Investigating Runoff Efficiency in Upper Colorado River Streamflow Over Past Centuries

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Woodhouse, Connie A.; Pederson, Gregory T.

2018-01-01

With increasing concerns about the impact of warming temperatures on water resources, more attention is being paid to the relationship between runoff and precipitation, or runoff efficiency. Temperature is a key influence on Colorado River runoff efficiency, and warming temperatures are projected to reduce runoff efficiency. Here, we investigate the nature of runoff efficiency in the upper Colorado River (UCRB) basin over the past 400 years, with a specific focus on major droughts and pluvials, and to contextualize the instrumental period. We first verify the feasibility of reconstructing runoff efficiency from tree-ring data. The reconstruction is then used to evaluate variability in runoff efficiency over periods of high and low flow, and its correspondence to a reconstruction of late runoff season UCRB temperature variability. Results indicate that runoff efficiency has played a consistent role in modulating the relationship between precipitation and streamflow over past centuries, and that temperature has likely been the key control. While negative runoff efficiency is most common during dry periods, and positive runoff efficiency during wet years, there are some instances of positive runoff efficiency moderating the impact of precipitation deficits on streamflow. Compared to past centuries, the 20th century has experienced twice as many high flow years with negative runoff efficiency, likely due to warm temperatures. These results suggest warming temperatures will continue to reduce runoff efficiency in wet or dry years, and that future flows will be less than anticipated from precipitation due to warming temperatures.

Investigating runoff efficiency in upper Colorado River streamflow over past centuries

USGS Publications Warehouse

Woodhouse, Connie A.; Pederson, Gregory T.

2018-01-01

With increasing concerns about the impact of warming temperatures on water resources, more attention is being paid to the relationship between runoff and precipitation, or runoff efficiency. Temperature is a key influence on Colorado River runoff efficiency, and warming temperatures are projected to reduce runoff efficiency. Here, we investigate the nature of runoff efficiency in the upper Colorado River (UCRB) basin over the past 400 years, with a specific focus on major droughts and pluvials, and to contextualize the instrumental period. We first verify the feasibility of reconstructing runoff efficiency from tree-ring data. The reconstruction is then used to evaluate variability in runoff efficiency over periods of high and low flow, and its correspondence to a reconstruction of late runoff season UCRB temperature variability. Results indicate that runoff efficiency has played a consistent role in modulating the relationship between precipitation and streamflow over past centuries, and that temperature has likely been the key control. While negative runoff efficiency is most common during dry periods, and positive runoff efficiency during wet years, there are some instances of positive runoff efficiency moderating the impact of precipitation deficits on streamflow. Compared to past centuries, the 20th century has experienced twice as many high flow years with negative runoff efficiency, likely due to warm temperatures. These results suggest warming temperatures will continue to reduce runoff efficiency in wet or dry years, and that future flows will be less than anticipated from precipitation due to warming temperatures.

Trends in precipitation, runoff, and evapotranspiration for rivers draining to the Gulf of Maine in the United States

USGS Publications Warehouse

Huntington, Thomas G.; Billmire, M.

2014-01-01

Climate warming is projected to result in increases in total annual precipitation in northeastern North America. The response of runoff to increases in precipitation is likely to be more complex because increasing evapotranspiration (ET) could counteract increasing precipitation. This study was conducted to examine these competing trends in the historical record for 22 rivers having >70 yr of runoff data. Annual (water year) average precipitation increased in all basins, with increases ranging from 0.9 to 3.12 mm yr−1. Runoff increased in all basins with increases ranging from 0.67 to 2.58 mm yr−1. The ET was calculated by using a water balance approach in which changes in terrestrial water storage were considered negligible. ET increased in 16 basins and decreased in 6 basins. Temporal trends in temperature, precipitation, runoff, and ET were also calculated for each basin over their respective periods of record for runoff and for the consistent period (1927–2011) for the area-weighted average of the nine largest non-nested basins. From 1927 through 2011, precipitation and runoff increased at average rates of 1.6 and 1.7 mm yr−1, respectively, and ET increased slightly at a rate of 0.18 mm yr−1. For the more recent period (1970–2011), there was a positive trend in ET of 1.9 mm yr−1. The lack of a more consistent increase in ET, compared with the increases in precipitation and runoff, for the full periods of record, was unexpected, but may be explained by various factors including decreasing wind speed, increasing cloudiness, decreasing vapor pressure deficit, and patterns of forest growth.

A glacier runoff extension to the Precipitation Runoff Modeling System

Treesearch

A. E. Van Beusekom; R. J. Viger

2016-01-01

A module to simulate glacier runoff, PRMSglacier, was added to PRMS (Precipitation Runoff Modeling System), a distributed-parameter, physical-process hydrological simulation code. The extension does not require extensive on-glacier measurements or computational expense but still relies on physical principles over empirical relations as much as is feasible while...

Simulation of daily streamflows at gaged and ungaged locations within the Cedar River Basin, Iowa, using a Precipitation-Runoff Modeling System model

USGS Publications Warehouse

Christiansen, Daniel E.

2012-01-01

The U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the Iowa Department of Natural Resources, conducted a study to examine techniques for estimation of daily streamflows using hydrological models and statistical methods. This report focuses on the use of a hydrologic model, the U.S. Geological Survey's Precipitation-Runoff Modeling System, to estimate daily streamflows at gaged and ungaged locations. The Precipitation-Runoff Modeling System is a modular, physically based, distributed-parameter modeling system developed to evaluate the impacts of various combinations of precipitation, climate, and land use on surface-water runoff and general basin hydrology. The Cedar River Basin was selected to construct a Precipitation-Runoff Modeling System model that simulates the period from January 1, 2000, to December 31, 2010. The calibration period was from January 1, 2000, to December 31, 2004, and the validation periods were from January 1, 2005, to December 31, 2010 and January 1, 2000 to December 31, 2010. A Geographic Information System tool was used to delineate the Cedar River Basin and subbasins for the Precipitation-Runoff Modeling System model and to derive parameters based on the physical geographical features. Calibration of the Precipitation-Runoff Modeling System model was completed using a U.S. Geological Survey calibration software tool. The main objective of the calibration was to match the daily streamflow simulated by the Precipitation-Runoff Modeling System model with streamflow measured at U.S. Geological Survey streamflow gages. The Cedar River Basin daily streamflow model performed with a Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency ranged from 0.82 to 0.33 during the calibration period, and a Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency ranged from 0.77 to -0.04 during the validation period. The Cedar River Basin model is meeting the criteria of greater than 0.50 Nash-Sutcliffe and is a good fit for streamflow conditions for the calibration period at all but one location, Austin, Minnesota. The Precipitation-Runoff Modeling System model accurately simulated streamflow at four of six uncalibrated sites within the basin. Overall, there was good agreement between simulated and measured seasonal and annual volumes throughout the basin for calibration and validation sites. The calibration period ranged from 0.2 to 20.8 percent difference, and the validation period ranged from 0.0 to 19.5 percent difference across all seasons and total annual runoff. The Precipitation-Runoff Modeling System model tended to underestimate lower streamflows compared to the observed streamflow values. This is an indication that the Precipitation-Runoff Modeling model needs more detailed groundwater and storage information to properly model the low-flow conditions in the Cedar River Basin.

Water resources and geology of the Los Coyotes Indian Reservation and vicinity, San Diego County, California

USGS Publications Warehouse

Ballog, A.P.; Moyle, W.R.

1980-01-01

The water resources of the Los Coyotes Indian Reservation, San Diego County, Calif., are sufficient to supply the limited domestic and stock-water needs of the present residents of the reservation. Surface-water runoff is derived from direct precipitation on the area and from intermittent spring flow. Groundwater occurs in the alluvial deposits and in the consolidated rocks where they are highly fractured or deeply weathered. The best potential for groundwater development on the reservation is in the small alluvial basins in the San Ysidro and San Ignacio areas. Most water on the reservation is good to excellent in chemical quality for domestic, stock, and irrigation use. Water from two wells (and one spring), however, exceeds the primary drinking-water standard for nitrate plus nitrate. (USGS)

Hydrologic and geomorphic data from the Piceance Basin, Colorado, 1972-77

USGS Publications Warehouse

Frickel, Donald G.

1978-01-01

Erosion measurements made during the period 1972-77 in the Piceance basin of northwestern Colorado are presented in tabular form. Most of the measurements consist of repeated surveys of ground-surface altitudes along monumented transects at 45 hillslope sites and 121 channel sites. The sites were generally resurveyed annualy and after significant hydrologic events. Also included are precipitation, runoff, and sediment-yield data for five small plots with different physical characteristics. The data were collected as part of erosion rate, sediment transport, and channel morphology studies being conducted in conjunction with development of the oil-shale resource of the area. The channel measurements were made to determine rates of aggradation , degradation, and lateral movement. The hillslope measurements were obtained to show rates of soil erosion in the area. (Woodard-USGS)

Simulation of streamflow in small drainage basins in the southern Yampa River basin, Colorado

USGS Publications Warehouse

Parker, R.S.; Norris, J.M.

1989-01-01

Coal mining operations in northwestern Colorado commonly are located in areas that have minimal available water-resource information. Drainage-basin models can be a method for extending water-resource information to include periods for which there are no records or to transfer the information to areas that have no streamflow-gaging stations. To evaluate the magnitude and variability of the components of the water balance in the small drainage basins monitored, and to provide some method for transfer of hydrologic data, the U.S. Geological Survey 's Precipitation-Runoff Modeling System was used for small drainage basins in the southern Yampa River basin to simulate daily mean streamflow using daily precipitation and air-temperature data. The study area was divided into three hydrologic regions, and in each of these regions, three drainage basins were monitored. Two of the drainage basins in each region were used to calibrate the Precipitation-Runoff Modeling System. The model was not calibrated for the third drainage basin in each region; instead, parameter values were transferred from the model that was calibrated for the two drainage basins. For all of the drainage basins except one, period of record used for calibration and verification included water years 1976-81. Simulated annual volumes of streamflow for drainage basins used in calibration compared well with observed values; individual hydrographs indicated timing differences between the observed and simulated daily mean streamflow. Observed and simulated annual average streamflows compared well for the periods of record, but values of simulated high and low streamflows were different than observed values. Similar results were obtained when calibrated model parameter values were transferred to drainage basins that were uncalibrated. (USGS)

The role of irrigation runoff and winter rainfall on dissolved organic carbon loads in an agricultural watershed

USGS Publications Warehouse

Oh, Neung-Hwan; Pellerin, Brian A.; Bachand, Philip A.M.; Hernes, Peter J.; Bachand, Sandra M.; Ohara, Noriaki; Kavvas, M. Levent; Bergamaschi, Brian A.; Horwath, William R.

2013-01-01

We investigated the role of land use/land cover and agriculture practices on stream dissolved organic carbon (DOC) dynamics in the Willow Slough watershed (WSW) from 2006 to 2008. The 415 km2watershed in the northern Central Valley, California is covered by 31% of native vegetation and the remaining 69% of agricultural fields (primarily alfalfa, tomatoes, and rice). Stream discharge and weekly DOC concentrations were measured at eight nested subwatersheds to estimate the DOC loads and yields (loads/area) using the USGS developed stream load estimation model, LOADEST. Stream DOC concentrations peaked at 18.9 mg L−1 during summer irrigation in the subwatershed with the highest percentage of agricultural land use, demonstrating the strong influence of agricultural activities on summer DOC dynamics. These high concentrations contributed to DOC yields increasing up to 1.29 g m−2 during the 6 month period of intensive agricultural activity. The high DOC yields from the most agricultural subwatershed during the summer irrigation period was similar throughout the study, suggesting that summer DOC loads from irrigation runoff would not change significantly in the absence of major changes in crops or irrigation practices. In contrast, annual DOC yields varied from 0.89 to 1.68 g m−2 yr−1 for the most agricultural watershed due to differences in winter precipitation. This suggests that variability in the annual DOC yields will be largely determined by the winter precipitation, which can vary significantly from year to year. Changes in precipitation patterns and intensities as well as agricultural practices have potential to considerably alter the DOC dynamics.

Comparison of HSPF and PRMS model simulated flows using different temporal and spatial scales in the Black Hills, South Dakota

USGS Publications Warehouse

Chalise, D. R.; Haj, Adel E.; Fontaine, T.A.

2018-01-01

The hydrological simulation program Fortran (HSPF) [Hydrological Simulation Program Fortran version 12.2 (Computer software). USEPA, Washington, DC] and the precipitation runoff modeling system (PRMS) [Precipitation Runoff Modeling System version 4.0 (Computer software). USGS, Reston, VA] models are semidistributed, deterministic hydrological tools for simulating the impacts of precipitation, land use, and climate on basin hydrology and streamflow. Both models have been applied independently to many watersheds across the United States. This paper reports the statistical results assessing various temporal (daily, monthly, and annual) and spatial (small versus large watershed) scale biases in HSPF and PRMS simulations using two watersheds in the Black Hills, South Dakota. The Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency (NSE), Pearson correlation coefficient (r">rr), and coefficient of determination (R2">R2R2) statistics for the daily, monthly, and annual flows were used to evaluate the models’ performance. Results from the HSPF models showed that the HSPF consistently simulated the annual flows for both large and small basins better than the monthly and daily flows, and the simulated flows for the small watershed better than flows for the large watershed. In comparison, the PRMS model results show that the PRMS simulated the monthly flows for both the large and small watersheds better than the daily and annual flows, and the range of statistical error in the PRMS models was greater than that in the HSPF models. Moreover, it can be concluded that the statistical error in the HSPF and the PRMSdaily, monthly, and annual flow estimates for watersheds in the Black Hills was influenced by both temporal and spatial scale variability.

Historical Changes in Precipitation and Streamflow in the U.S. Great Lakes Basin, 1915-2004

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hodgkins, Glenn A.; Dudley, Robert W.; Aichele, Stephen S.

2007-01-01

The total amount of water in the Great Lakes Basin is important in the long-term allocation of water to human use and to riparian and aquatic ecosystems. The water available during low-flow periods is particularly important because the short-term demands for the water can exceed the supply. Precipitation increased over the last 90 years in the U.S. Great Lakes Basin. Total annual precipitation increased by 4.5 inches from 1915 to 2004 (based on the average of 34 U.S. Historical Climatology Network stations), 3.5 inches from 1935 to 2004 (average of 34 stations), and 4.2 inches from 1955 to 2004 (average of 37 stations). Variability in precipitation from year to year was large, but there were numerous years with relatively low precipitation in the 1930s and 1960s and many years with relatively high precipitation after about 1970. Annual runoff increased over the last 50 years in the U.S. Great Lakes Basin. Mean annual runoff increased by 2.6 inches, based on the average of 43 U.S. Geological Survey streamflow-gaging stations from 1955 to 2004 on streams that were relatively free of human influences. Variability in runoff from year to year was large, but on average runoff was relatively low from 1955 to about 1970 and relatively high from about 1970 to 1995. Runoff increased at all stations in the basin except in and near the Upper Peninsula of Michigan, where relatively small runoff decreases occurred. Changes in annual runoff for the 16 stations with data from 1935 to 2004 were similar to the changes from 1955 to 2004. The mean annual 7-day low runoff (the lowest annual average of 7 consecutive days of runoff) increased from 1955 to 2004 by 0.048 cubic feet per second per square mile based on the average of 27 stations. Runoff in the U.S. Great Lakes Basin from 1955 to 2004 increased for all months except April. November through January and July precipitation and runoff increased by similar amounts. There were differences between precipitation and runoff changes for February, March, and April, which were likely due to lower ratios of snowfall to rain and earlier snowmelt runoff in recent years. Increases in precipitation were larger than increases in runoff for May, June, August, September, and October. Some of this difference could be due to the different locations of the precipitation and streamflow stations in the basin. Part of the difference may be explained by changes in evapotranspiration. Some of the few highly urbanized and highly regulated stations analyzed in this report had larger increases in annual 7-day low-runoff from 1955 to 2004 than any of the stations in the U.S. Great Lakes Basin that are on streams relatively free of human influences. This demonstrates the human influence over time on very low streamflows. Changes-even over periods as long as 90 years-can be part of longer cycles. Previous studies of Great Lakes Basin precipitation and St. Lawrence River streamflow, using data from the mid-1800s to the late-1900s, showed low precipitation and streamflow in the late 1800s and early 1900s relative to earlier and later periods.

Runoff response to climate change and human activities in a typical karst watershed, SW China.

PubMed

Xu, Yan; Wang, Shijie; Bai, Xiaoyong; Shu, Dongcai; Tian, Yichao

2018-01-01

This study aims to reveal the runoff variation characteristics of long time series in a karst region, analyse comprehensively its different driving factors, and estimate quantitatively the contribution rates of climate change and human activities to net runoff variation. Liudong river basin, a typical karst watershed in southwest China, is the study site. Statistical methods, such as linear fitting, the Morlet wavelet analysis, normalized curve and double mass curve, are applied to analyse the runoff of the watershed. Results show that the runoff in the karst watershed during the research period exhibits a three-stage change and the abrupt change points are the years 1981 and 2007: (1) 1968-1980, the runoff initially exhibited a trend of sustained decreasing and then an abrupt fluctuation. The runoff was obviously destroyed through precipitation-producing processes. Improper land utilisation and serious forest and grass destruction intensified the fluctuation variation amplitude of the runoff. (2) 1981-2006, the changing processes of runoff and precipitation exhibited good synchronism. Precipitation significantly affected runoff variation and human activities had a slight interference degree. (3) 2007-2013, the fluctuation range of runoff was considerably smaller than that of precipitation. The significant growth of forest and grassland areas and the increase in water consumption mitigated runoff fluctuation and greatly diminished runoff variation amplitude. According to calculation, the relative contribution rates of precipitation and human activities to net runoff variation with 1981-2007 as the reference period were -81% and 181% in average, respectively, during 1968-1980, and -117% and 217% in average, respectively, during 2007-2013. In general, the analysis of runoff variation trend and of the contribution rate of its main influencing factors in the typical karst watershed for nearly half a century may be significant to solve the drought problem in the karst region and for the sustainable development of the drainage basin.

Runoff response to climate change and human activities in a typical karst watershed, SW China

PubMed Central

Xu, Yan; Wang, Shijie; Shu, Dongcai; Tian, Yichao

2018-01-01

This study aims to reveal the runoff variation characteristics of long time series in a karst region, analyse comprehensively its different driving factors, and estimate quantitatively the contribution rates of climate change and human activities to net runoff variation. Liudong river basin, a typical karst watershed in southwest China, is the study site. Statistical methods, such as linear fitting, the Morlet wavelet analysis, normalized curve and double mass curve, are applied to analyse the runoff of the watershed. Results show that the runoff in the karst watershed during the research period exhibits a three-stage change and the abrupt change points are the years 1981 and 2007: (1) 1968–1980, the runoff initially exhibited a trend of sustained decreasing and then an abrupt fluctuation. The runoff was obviously destroyed through precipitation-producing processes. Improper land utilisation and serious forest and grass destruction intensified the fluctuation variation amplitude of the runoff. (2) 1981–2006, the changing processes of runoff and precipitation exhibited good synchronism. Precipitation significantly affected runoff variation and human activities had a slight interference degree. (3) 2007–2013, the fluctuation range of runoff was considerably smaller than that of precipitation. The significant growth of forest and grassland areas and the increase in water consumption mitigated runoff fluctuation and greatly diminished runoff variation amplitude. According to calculation, the relative contribution rates of precipitation and human activities to net runoff variation with 1981–2007 as the reference period were −81% and 181% in average, respectively, during 1968–1980, and −117% and 217% in average, respectively, during 2007–2013. In general, the analysis of runoff variation trend and of the contribution rate of its main influencing factors in the typical karst watershed for nearly half a century may be significant to solve the drought problem in the karst region and for the sustainable development of the drainage basin. PMID:29494602

Quantitative assessment of the impacts of climate change and human activities on runoff change in a typical karst watershed, SW China.

PubMed

Wu, Luhua; Wang, Shijie; Bai, Xiaoyong; Luo, Weijun; Tian, Yichao; Zeng, Cheng; Luo, Guangjie; He, Shiyan

2017-12-01

The Yinjiang River watershed is a typical karst watershed in Southwest China. The present study explored runoff change and its responses to different driving factors in the Yinjiang River watershed over the period of 1984 to 2015. The methods of cumulative anomaly, continuous wavelet analysis, Mann-Kendall rank correlation trend test, and Hurst exponent were applied to analyze the impacts of climate change and human activities on runoff change. The contributions of climate change and human activities to runoff change were quantitatively assessed using the comparative method of the slope changing ratio of cumulative quantity (SCRCQ). The following results were obtained: (1) From 1984 to 2015, runoff and precipitation exhibited no-significant increasing trend, whereas evaporation exhibited significant decreasing trend. (2) In the future, runoff, precipitation, and evaporation will exhibit weak anti-persistent feature with different persistent times. This feature indicated that in their persistent times, runoff and precipitation will continuously decline, whereas evaporation will continuously increase. (3) Runoff and precipitation were well-synchronized with abrupt change features and stage characteristics, and exhibited consistent multi-timescale characteristics that were different from that of evaporation. (4) The contribution of precipitation to runoff change was 50%-60% and was considered high and stable. The contribution of evaporation to runoff change was 10%-90% and was variable with a positive or negative effects. The contribution of human activities to runoff change was 20%-60% and exerted a low positive or negative effect. (5) Climatic factors highly contributed to runoff change. By contrast, the contribution of human activities to runoff change was low. The contribution of climatic factors to runoff change was highly variable because of differences among base periods. In conclusion, this paper provides a basic theoretical understanding of the main factors that contribute to runoff change in a karst watershed. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Nonlinear response in runoff magnitude to fluctuating rain patterns.

PubMed

Curtu, R; Fonley, M

2015-03-01

The runoff coefficient of a hillslope is a reliable measure for changes in the streamflow response at the river link outlet. A high runoff coefficient is a good indicator of the possibility of flash floods. Although the relationship between runoff coefficient and streamflow has been the subject of much study, the physical mechanisms affecting runoff coefficient including the dependence on precipitation pattern remain open topics for investigation. In this paper, we analyze a rainfall-runoff model at the hillslope scale as that hillslope is forced with different rain patterns: constant rain and fluctuating rain with different frequencies and amplitudes. When an oscillatory precipitation pattern is applied, although the same amount of water may enter the system, its response (measured by the runoff coefficient) will be maximum for a certain frequency of precipitation. The significant increase in runoff coefficient after a certain pattern of rainfall can be a potential explanation for the conditions preceding flash-floods.

More Soil, Less Storage: The Influence of Soil Characteristics on Rainfall-Runoff Responses Across High to Low Relief Landscapes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gannon, J. P.; Zimmer, M. A.

2017-12-01

The balance between surficial watershed properties (e.g. topography) and subsurface watershed properties (e.g. soil depth, horizonation) as drivers of runoff characteristics is not well understood. We addressed this knowledge gap by investigating long-term ( 20 years) daily discharge and precipitation for 74 USGS in-stream gaging sites across the Appalachian Mountain and Piedmont regions of North Carolina, USA. Gaging sites included in this analysis had <10% developed land and ranged in size from 14.1 - 4390 km2. Thirty-five sites were located in the Piedmont Region, which is typically classified as a low relief landscape with deep, highly weathered soils and shallow, clay-rich soil horizons. Thirty-nine sites were located in the Appalachian Mountains, which are typically classified as a steeper landscape with comparatively shallow, highly weathered soils. We calculated an annual baseflow index (BFI) for each site to investigate the changes in stormflow generation in each gaged watershed. We also conducted a stepwise multiple linear regression analysis to identify which landscape and climate characteristics contributed to individual watershed runoff responses. Our results showed that watersheds in the Appalachian Mountain region had BFIs that were generally higher and less dependent on the rainfall of the corresponding year, as compared to the Piedmont region. This suggests that while the Appalachian Mountain region is steeper with comparatively shallower soils, the effective storage is higher than watersheds in the Piedmont. In contrast, while the Piedmont region has deep soils, the shallow soil horizon impeding layers produce flashier runoff responses and a shorter watershed memory. More work is needed to further understand the balance between critical zone structure and watershed structure on runoff responses across a range of landscape types.

Monitoring: a vital component of science at USGS WEBB sites

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shanley, J. B.; Peters, N. E.; Campbell, D. H.; Clow, D. W.; Walker, J. F.; Hunt, R. J.

2007-12-01

The U.S. Geological Survey launched its Water, Energy, and Biogeochemical Budgets (WEBB) program in 1991 with the establishment of five long-term research watersheds. Monitoring of climate, hydrology, and chemistry is the cornerstone of WEBB scientific investigations. At Loch Vale, CO, long-term streamflow and climate monitoring indicated an increase rather than the expected decrease in the runoff:precipitation ratio during a drought in the early 2000s, indicating the melting of subsurface and glacial ice in the basin. At Luquillo Experimental Forest in Puerto Rico, monitoring of mercury in precipitation revealed the highest recorded mercury wet deposition rates in the USA, an unexpected finding given the lack of point sources. At Panola Mountain, GA, long-term monitoring of soil- and groundwater revealed step shifts in chemical compositions in response to wet and drought cycles, causing a corresponding shift in stream chemistry. At Sleepers River, VT, WEBB funding has extended a long- term (since 1960) weekly snow water equivalent dataset which is a valuable integrating signal of regional climate trends. At Trout Lake, WI, long-term monitoring of lakes, ground-water levels, streamflow and subsurface water chemistry has generated a rich dataset for calibrating a watershed model, and allowed for efficient design of an automated procedure for sampling mercury during runoff events. The 17-plus years of monitoring at the WEBB watersheds provides a foundation for generating new scientific hypotheses, a basis for trend detection, and context for anomalous observations that often drive new research.

Integrated watershed-scale response to climate change for selected basins across the United States

USGS Publications Warehouse

Markstrom, Steven L.; Hay, Lauren E.; Ward-Garrison, D. Christian; Risley, John C.; Battaglin, William A.; Bjerklie, David M.; Chase, Katherine J.; Christiansen, Daniel E.; Dudley, Robert W.; Hunt, Randall J.; Koczot, Kathryn M.; Mastin, Mark C.; Regan, R. Steven; Viger, Roland J.; Vining, Kevin C.; Walker, John F.

2012-01-01

A study by the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) evaluated the hydrologic response to different projected carbon emission scenarios of the 21st century using a hydrologic simulation model. This study involved five major steps: (1) setup, calibrate and evaluated the Precipitation Runoff Modeling System (PRMS) model in 14 basins across the United States by local USGS personnel; (2) acquire selected simulated carbon emission scenarios from the World Climate Research Programme's Coupled Model Intercomparison Project; (3) statistical downscaling of these scenarios to create PRMS input files which reflect the future climatic conditions of these scenarios; (4) generate PRMS projections for the carbon emission scenarios for the 14 basins; and (5) analyze the modeled hydrologic response. This report presents an overview of this study, details of the methodology, results from the 14 basin simulations, and interpretation of these results. A key finding is that the hydrological response of the different geographical regions of the United States to potential climate change may be different, depending on the dominant physical processes of that particular region. Also considered is the tremendous amount of uncertainty present in the carbon emission scenarios and how this uncertainty propagates through the hydrologic simulations.

Report of the River Master of the Delaware River for the period December 1, 1984 - November 30, 1985

USGS Publications Warehouse

Schaefer, F.T.; Harkness, W.E.; Cecil, L.D.

1986-01-01

A Decree of the Supreme Court of the United States in 1954 established the position of Delaware River Master. The Decree authorizes diversions of water from the Delaware River basin and requires compensating releases from certain reservoirs of the City of New York to be made under the supervision and direction of the River Master. Reports to the Court, not less frequently than annually, were stipulated. During the 1985 report year, December 1, 1984, to November 30, 1985, precipitation and runoff varied from below average to above average in the Delaware River basin. For the year as a whole, precipitation was near average. Runoff was below average. Operations were under a status of drought warning or drought from January 23, 1984, through the end of the report year. Below-normal precipitation the first half of the year resulted in decreased storage in the reservoirs to record low levels by March 1, 1985. Storage remained at record low levels from March through September. Above-normal precipitation in September and November served to break the drought and increase storage into the normal zone of the operating curves for the reservoirs. Diversions from the Delaware River basin by New York City did not exceed those authorized by the terms of the Amended Decree or those invoked by the several emergency conservation measures throughout the year. There were no diversions from the Delaware River basin by New Jersey during the year. Releases were made as directed by the River Master at rates designed to meet the Montague flow objective on 82 days between June 14 and September 28. Releases were made at conservation rates or at rates designed to relieve thermal stress in the streams downstream from the reservoirs at other times. (See also W89-04133) (USGS)

Evaluating the impact of climate and underlying surface on runoff change within Budyko framework: a study across 224 catchments in China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shen, Q.; Cong, Z.; Lei, H.

2017-12-01

Climate change and underlying surface change are two main factors affecting the hydrological cycle. In respect of climate change, precipitation alters not only in magnitude, but also in intensity, which can be represented by the precipitation depth. To further understand the spatial variation of the impact of precipitation, potential evapotranspiration, precipitation depth as well as the water storage capacity, in this paper 224 catchments across China were analyzed applying the Choudhury-Porporato equation based on the Budyko hypothesis. The catchments distribute in 9 major basins in China and the study period is from 1960 to 2010. The results show that underlying surface is the major driving force of the change in runoff in the Songhua Basin, the Liaohe Basin and the Haihe Basin, while climate change dominates runoff change in other basins. Climate change causes runoff increase in most catchments, except for some catchments in the Yellow River Basin and the Yangtze River Basin. Specifically, change in precipitation depth induces runoff increase in almost each catchment and shows a remarkable contribution rate (14.8% on average, larger than 20% in 32% catchments). The contribution of precipitation depth has little correlation with the aridity index, while positively correlates to the significance of trend in precipitation depth. This study suggests that precipitation depth is an important aspect that should be taken into consideration in attribution of runoff change. The results can give a sight for future researches in attribution analysis within the Budyko framework.

Decreased runoff response to precipitation, Little Missouri River Basin, northern Great Plains, USA

USGS Publications Warehouse

Griffin, Eleanor R.; Friedman, Jonathan M.

2017-01-01

High variability in precipitation and streamflow in the semiarid northern Great Plains causes large uncertainty in water availability. This uncertainty is compounded by potential effects of future climate change. We examined historical variability in annual and growing season precipitation, temperature, and streamflow within the Little Missouri River Basin and identified differences in the runoff response to precipitation for the period 1976-2012 compared to 1939-1975 (n = 37 years in both cases). Computed mean values for the second half of the record showed little change (<5%) in annual or growing season precipitation, but average annual runoff at the basin outlet decreased by 22%, with 66% of the reduction in flow occurring during the growing season. Our results show a statistically significant (p < 0.10) 27% decrease in the annual runoff response to precipitation (runoff ratio). Surface-water withdrawals for various uses appear to account for <12% of the reduction in average annual flow volume, and we found no published or reported evidence of substantial flow reduction caused by groundwater pumping in this basin. Results of our analysis suggest that increases in monthly average maximum and minimum temperatures, including >1°C increases in January through March, are the dominant driver of the observed decrease in runoff response to precipitation in the Little Missouri River Basin.

Sensitivity of agricultural runoff loads to rising levels of CO2 and climate change in the San Joaquin Valley watershed of California.

PubMed

Ficklin, Darren L; Luo, Yuzhou; Luedeling, Eike; Gatzke, Sarah E; Zhang, Minghua

2010-01-01

The Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) was used to assess the impact of climate change on sediment, nitrate, phosphorus and pesticide (diazinon and chlorpyrifos) runoff in the San Joaquin watershed in California. This study used modeling techniques that include variations of CO(2), temperature, and precipitation to quantify these responses. Precipitation had a greater impact on agricultural runoff compared to changes in either CO(2) concentration or temperature. Increase of precipitation by +/-10% and +/-20% generally changed agricultural runoff proportionally. Solely increasing CO(2) concentration resulted in an increase in nitrate, phosphorus, and chlorpyrifos yield by 4.2, 7.8, and 6.4%, respectively, and a decrease in sediment and diazinon yield by 6.3 and 5.3%, respectively, in comparison to the present-day reference scenario. Only increasing temperature reduced yields of all agricultural runoff components. The results suggest that agricultural runoff in the San Joaquin watershed is sensitive to precipitation, temperature, and CO(2) concentration changes.

Future shift of the relative roles of precipitation and temperature in controlling annual runoff in the conterminous United States

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Duan, Kai; Sun, Ge; McNulty, Steven G.; Caldwell, Peter V.; Cohen, Erika C.; Sun, Shanlei; Aldridge, Heather D.; Zhou, Decheng; Zhang, Liangxia; Zhang, Yang

2017-11-01

This study examines the relative roles of climatic variables in altering annual runoff in the conterminous United States (CONUS) in the 21st century, using a monthly ecohydrological model (the Water Supply Stress Index model, WaSSI) driven with historical records and future scenarios constructed from 20 Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) climate models. The results suggest that precipitation has been the primary control of runoff variation during the latest decades, but the role of temperature will outweigh that of precipitation in most regions if future climate change follows the projections of climate models instead of the historical tendencies. Besides these two key factors, increasing air humidity is projected to partially offset the additional evaporative demand caused by warming and consequently enhance runoff. Overall, the projections from 20 climate models suggest a high degree of consistency on the increasing trends in temperature, precipitation, and humidity, which will be the major climatic driving factors accounting for 43-50, 20-24, and 16-23 % of the runoff change, respectively. Spatially, while temperature rise is recognized as the largest contributor that suppresses runoff in most areas, precipitation is expected to be the dominant factor driving runoff to increase across the Pacific coast and the southwest. The combined effects of increasing humidity and precipitation may also surpass the detrimental effects of warming and result in a hydrologically wetter future in the east. However, severe runoff depletion is more likely to occur in the central CONUS as temperature effect prevails.

Can Runoff Responses be Used to Predict Aquatic Biogeochemical Fluxes from Boreal Forest Ecosystems?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Prestegaard, K. L.; Ziegler, S. E.; Billings, S. A.; Edwards, K. A.

2017-12-01

Climate change has direct effects on precipitation and temperature, which contribute to indirect changes in ecosystem productivity, runoff, biogeochemical processes, and species composition. In this research, we examine water balances in boreal forest watersheds to determine spatial and inter-annual variations in their responses to changes in precipitation. Our research indicates that Central and Western N. American boreal watersheds with mean annual precipitation (MAP) of less than 1000 mm exhibit positive relationships between annual precipitation and annual evapotranspiration, suggesting an increase in forest productivity during wet years often without increased runoff. In Maritime boreal watersheds in Eastern N. America and N. Europe, runoff is a significantly larger portion of the water balance and runoff increases with precipitation This regionalism in the water balance may have significant consequences for biogeochemical fluxes; for example, where MAP >1000 mm, a future wetter climate may result in increases in the terrestrial-to-aquatic transport of solutes. To test this idea, we examined inter-annual variations in hydrologic and dissolved organic carbon fluxes in watersheds in Newfoundland and Labrador along a longitudinal transect. Mean annual temperature varies from 0-5.2oC along the transect, and MAP varies from 1050 to 1500 mm. Data indicate an increase in evapotranspiration, runoff, and soil DOC fluxes with the increasing mean annual precipitation among watersheds along the transect. During the 2011-2015 period of study there was significant overlap in annual precipitation among the sites. Although wet water years also produced higher amounts of runoff from most watersheds, the annual soil DOC flux within each region was not significantly affected by these inter-annual changes in precipitation. Stream and groundwater monitoring data from the catchments reveal seasonal variations in evapotranspiration and runoff and their role in solute fluxes, and suggest the importance of biological controls on solute fluxes that are not captured by using either wet years or wetter locations as proxies for a future wetter climate.

How does bias correction of RCM precipitation affect modelled runoff?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Teng, J.; Potter, N. J.; Chiew, F. H. S.; Zhang, L.; Vaze, J.; Evans, J. P.

2014-09-01

Many studies bias correct daily precipitation from climate models to match the observed precipitation statistics, and the bias corrected data are then used for various modelling applications. This paper presents a review of recent methods used to bias correct precipitation from regional climate models (RCMs). The paper then assesses four bias correction methods applied to the weather research and forecasting (WRF) model simulated precipitation, and the follow-on impact on modelled runoff for eight catchments in southeast Australia. Overall, the best results are produced by either quantile mapping or a newly proposed two-state gamma distribution mapping method. However, the difference between the tested methods is small in the modelling experiments here (and as reported in the literature), mainly because of the substantial corrections required and inconsistent errors over time (non-stationarity). The errors remaining in bias corrected precipitation are typically amplified in modelled runoff. The tested methods cannot overcome limitation of RCM in simulating precipitation sequence, which affects runoff generation. Results further show that whereas bias correction does not seem to alter change signals in precipitation means, it can introduce additional uncertainty to change signals in high precipitation amounts and, consequently, in runoff. Future climate change impact studies need to take this into account when deciding whether to use raw or bias corrected RCM results. Nevertheless, RCMs will continue to improve and will become increasingly useful for hydrological applications as the bias in RCM simulations reduces.

[Variation characteristics of runoff coefficient of Taizi River basin in 1967-2006].

PubMed

Deng, Jun-Li; Zhang, Yong-Fang; Wang, An-Zhi; Guan, De-Xin; Jin, Chang-Jie; Wu, Jia-Bing

2011-06-01

Based on the daily precipitation and runoff data of six main embranchments (Haicheng River, Nansha River, Beisha River, Lanhe River, Xihe River, and Taizi River south embranchment) of Taizi River basin in 1967-2006, this paper analyzed the variation trend of runoff coefficient of the embranchments as well as the relationship between this variation trend and precipitation. In 1967-2006, the Taizi River south embranchment located in alpine hilly area had the largest mean annual runoff coefficient, while the Haicheng River located in plain area had the relatively small one. The annual runoff coefficient of the embranchments except Nansha River showed a decreasing trend, being more apparent for Taizi River south embranchment and Lanhe River. All the embranchments except Xihe River had an obvious abrupt change in the annual runoff coefficient, and the beginning year of the abrupt change differed with embranchment. Annual precipitation had significant effects on the annual runoff coefficient.

Sensitivity of River Runoff in Bhutan to Changes in Precipitation and Temperature

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sonessa, M. Y.; Nijssen, B.; Dorji, C.; Wangmo, D.; Lettenmaier, D. P.; Richey, J. E.

2013-12-01

In the past decades there has been increasing concern about the potential effects of climate change on runoff and water resources all over the world under different conditions. Various studies have indicated that climate change will have an impact on runoff and stream flow. Bhutan is one of the countries in the Hindu Kush-Himalayan region which shows more warming than the global average. The Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) model, a macroscale hydrological model, was used to assess the hydrology of the country and the potential impacts of climate change on water availability. Precipitation and temperature were perturbed to study the runoff sensitivity to temperature and precipitation changes. The VIC model was run at 1/24° latitude-longitude resolution. The modeled mean annual runoff elasticity which measures fractional change in annual runoff divided by fractional change in annual precipitation ranges from 1.08 to 2.16. The elasticity value is lower for higher reference precipitations and vice versa. The runoff sensitivity to temperature represents the percentage change in annual runoff per 1°C change in temperature. Runoff sensitivities are negative and range from -1.36%/°C to -1.70%/°C. Spatially, both greater elasticity and sensitivity occur towards the northern part of the country where elevation is more than 5000 m above sea level. Based on the coupled model inter-comparison project phase five (CMIP5) average model results, both precipitation and temperature are predicted to increase in Bhutan in the 21st century. Annually, P is expected to increase by 0.45 to 8.7% under RCP4.5 emission scenario and 1.95 to 14.26% under RCP8.5 emission. The mean annual temperature increment ranges from +1.1 to +2.6°C under RCP4.5 and +1.2 to +4.5°C under RCP8.5 emission scenario. These changes in precipitation and temperature are expected to result in runoff changes ranging from -1.0 to +14.3% and +2.2 to +23.1% increments under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 emission scenarios, respectively, with the increment getting bigger towards the end of the century. Keywords: Climate change; runoff elasticity; runoff sensitivity; Bhutan.

Contrasting runoff trends between dry and wet parts of eastern Tibetan Plateau.

PubMed

Wang, Yuanyuan; Zhang, Yongqiang; Chiew, Francis H S; McVicar, Tim R; Zhang, Lu; Li, Hongxia; Qin, Guanghua

2017-11-13

As the "Asian Water Tower", the Tibetan Plateau (TP) provides water resources for more than 1.4 billion people, but suffers from climatic and environmental changes, followed by the changes in water balance components. We used state-of-the-art satellite-based products to estimate spatial and temporal variations and trends in annual precipitation, evapotranspiration and total water storage change across eastern TP, which were then used to reconstruct an annual runoff variability series for 2003-2014. The basin-scale reconstructed streamflow variability matched well with gauge observations for five large rivers. Annual runoff increased strongly in dry part because of increases in precipitation, but decreased in wet part because of decreases in precipitation, aggravated by noticeable increases in evapotranspiration in the north of wet part. Although precipitation primarily governed temporal-spatial pattern of runoff, total water storage change contributed greatly to runoff variation in regions with wide-spread permanent snow/ice or permafrost. Our study indicates that the contrasting runoff trends between the dry and wet parts of eastern TP requires a change in water security strategy, and attention should be paid to the negative water resources impacts detected for southwestern part which has undergone vast glacier retreat and decreasing precipitation.

Precipitation-runoff and streamflow-routing models for the Willamette River basin, Oregon

USGS Publications Warehouse

Laenen, Antonius; Risley, John C.

1997-01-01

With an input of current streamflow, precipitation, and air temperature data the combined runoff and routing models can provide current estimates of streamflow at almost 500 locations on the main stem and major tributaries of the Willamette River with a high degree of accuracy. Relative contributions of surface runoff, subsurface flow, and ground-water flow can be assessed for 1 to 10 HRU classes in each of 253 subbasins identified for precipitation-runoff modeling. Model outputs were used with a water-quality model to simulate the movement of dye in the Pudding River as an example

Climate, soil water storage, and the average annual water balance

USGS Publications Warehouse

Milly, P.C.D.

1994-01-01

This paper describes the development and testing of the hypothesis that the long-term water balance is determined only by the local interaction of fluctuating water supply (precipitation) and demand (potential evapotranspiration), mediated by water storage in the soil. Adoption of this hypothesis, together with idealized representations of relevant input variabilities in time and space, yields a simple model of the water balance of a finite area having a uniform climate. The partitioning of average annual precipitation into evapotranspiration and runoff depends on seven dimensionless numbers: the ratio of average annual potential evapotranspiration to average annual precipitation (index of dryness); the ratio of the spatial average plant-available water-holding capacity of the soil to the annual average precipitation amount; the mean number of precipitation events per year; the shape parameter of the gamma distribution describing spatial variability of storage capacity; and simple measures of the seasonality of mean precipitation intensity, storm arrival rate, and potential evapotranspiration. The hypothesis is tested in an application of the model to the United States east of the Rocky Mountains, with no calibration. Study area averages of runoff and evapotranspiration, based on observations, are 263 mm and 728 mm, respectively; the model yields corresponding estimates of 250 mm and 741 mm, respectively, and explains 88% of the geographical variance of observed runoff within the study region. The differences between modeled and observed runoff can be explained by uncertainties in the model inputs and in the observed runoff. In the humid (index of dryness <1) parts of the study area, the dominant factor producing runoff is the excess of annual precipitation over annual potential evapotranspiration, but runoff caused by variability of supply and demand over time is also significant; in the arid (index of dryness >1) parts, all of the runoff is caused by variability of forcing over time. Contributions to model runoff attributable to small-scale spatial variability of storage capacity are insignificant throughout the study area. The consistency of the model with observational data is supportive of the supply-demand-storage hypothesis, which neglects infiltration excess runoff and other finite-permeability effects on the soil water balance.

Using runoff slope-break to determine dominate factors of runoff decline in Hutuo River Basin, North China.

PubMed

Tian, Fei; Yang, Yonghui; Han, Shumin

2009-01-01

Water resources in North China have declined sharply in recent years. Low runoff (especially in the mountain areas) has been identified as the main factor. Hutuo River Basin (HRB), a typical up-stream basin in North China with two subcatchments (Ye and Hutuo River Catchments), was investigated in this study. Mann-Kendall test was used to determine the general trend of precipitation and runoff for 1960-1999. Then Sequential Mann-Kendall test was used to establish runoff slope-break from which the beginning point of sharp decline in runoff was determined. Finally, regression analysis was done to illustrate runoff decline via comparison of precipitation-runoff correlation for the period prior to and after sharp runoff decline. This was further verified by analysis of rainy season peak runoff flows. The results are as follows: (1) annual runoff decline in the basin is significant while that of precipitation is insignificant at alpha=0.05 confidence level; (2) sharp decline in runoff in Ye River Catchment (YRC) occurred in 1968 while that in Hutuo River Catchment (HRC) occurred in 1978; (3) based on the regression analysis, human activity has the highest impact on runoff decline in the basin. As runoff slope-breaks in both Catchments strongly coincided with increase in agricultural activity, agricultural water use is considered the dominate factor of runoff decline in the study area.

[Impacts of forest and precipitation on runoff and sediment in Tianshui watershed and GM models].

PubMed

Ouyang, H

2000-12-01

This paper analyzed the impacts of foret stand volume and precipitation on annual erosion modulus, mean sediment, maximum sediment, mean runoff, maximum runoff, minimum runoff, mean water level, maximum water level and minimum water level in Tianshui watershed, and also analyzed the effect of the variation of forest stand volume on monthly mean runoff, minimum runoff and mean water level. The dynamic models of grey system GM(1, N) were constructed to simulate the changes of these hydrological elements. The dynamic GM models on the impact of stand volumes of different forest types(Chinese fir, masson pine and broad-leaved forests) with different age classes(young, middle-aged, mature and over-mature) and that of precipitation on the hydrological elements were also constructed, and their changes with time were analyzed.

Runoff sensitivity to climate change in the Nile River Basin

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hasan, Emad; Tarhule, Aondover; Kirstetter, Pierre-Emmanuel; Clark, Race; Hong, Yang

2018-06-01

In data scarce basins, such as the Nile River Basin (NRB) in Africa, constraints related to data availability, quality, and access often complicate attempts to estimate runoff sensitivity using conventional methods. In this paper, we show that by integrating the concept of the aridity index (AI) (derived from the Budyko curve) and climate elasticity, we can obtain the first order response of the runoff sensitivity using minimal data input and modeling expertise or experience. The concept of runoff elasticity relies on the fact that the energy available for evapotranspiration plays a major role in determining whether the precipitation received within a drainage basin generates runoff. The approach does not account for human impacts on runoff modification and or diversions. By making use of freely available gauge-corrected satellite data for precipitation, temperature, runoff, and potential evapotranspiration, we derived the sensitivity indicator (β) to determine the runoff response to changes in precipitation and temperature for four climatic zones in the NRB, namely, tropical, subtropical, semiarid and arid zones. The proposed sensitivity indicator can be partitioned into different elasticity components i.e: precipitation (εp), potential evapotranspiration (εETp), temperature (εT) and the total elasticity (εtot) . These elasticities allow robust quantification of the runoff response to the potential changes in precipitation and temperature with a high degree of accuracy. Results indicate that the tropical zone is energy-constrained with low sensitivity, (β < 1.0) , implying that input precipitation exceeds the amounts that can be evaporated given the available energy. The subtropical zone is subdivided into two distinct regions, the lowland (Machar and Sudd marshes), and the highland area (Blue Nile Basin), where each area has a unique sensitivity. The lowland area has high sensitivity, (β > 1.0) . The subtropical-highland zone moves between energy-limited to water-limited conditions during periods of wet and dry spells with varying sensitivity. The semiarid and arid zones are water limited, with high sensitivity, (β > 1.0) . The calculated runoff elasticities show that a 10% decrease in precipitation leads to a decrease in runoff of between 19% in the tropical zone and 30% in the arid zones. On the other hand, a 10% precipitation increase leads to a runoff increase of 14% in the tropical zone and 22% in the arid zone. The estimated runoff changes are consistent with the result obtained using other methods. Thus, the elasticity approach combines data parsimony and analytical simplicity to produce results that are practically useful for most purposes while facilitating communication with stakeholders with different levels of scientific knowledge. More research is needed to extend the application of the method to incorporate the effects of human activities, and land use change.

Increasing runoff and sediment load from the Greenland ice sheet at kangerlussuaq (Sonder Stromfjord) in a 30-year perspective, 1979-2008

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Mernild, Sebastian Haugard; Liston, Glen; Hasholt, Bent

2009-01-01

This observation and modeling study provides insights into runoff and sediment load exiting the Watson River drainage basin, Kangerlussuaq, West Greenland during a 30 year period (1978/79-2007/08) when the climate experienced increasing temperatures and precipitation. The 30-year simulations quantify the terrestrial freshwater and sediment output from part of the Greenland Ice Sheet (GrIS) and the land between the GrIS and the ocean, in the context of global warming and increasing GrIS surface melt. We used a snow-evolution modeling system (SnowModel) to simulate the winter accumulation and summer ablation processes, including runoff and surface mass balance (SMB), of the Greenland icemore » sheet. Observed sediment concentrations were related to observed runoff, producing a sediment-load time series. To a large extent, the SMB fluctuations could be explained by changes in net precipitation (precipitation minus evaporation and sublimation), with 8 out of 30 years having negative SMB, mainly because of relatively low annual net precipitation. The overall trend in net precipitation and runoff increased significantly, while 5MB increased insignificantly throughout the simulation period, leading to enhanced precipitation of 0.59 km{sup 3} w.eq. (or 60%), runoff of 0.43 km{sup 3} w.eq (or 54%), and SMB of 0.16 km3 w.eq. (or 86%). Runoff rose on average from 0.80 km{sup 3} w.eq. in 1978/79 to 1.23 km{sup 3} w.eq. in 2007/08. The percentage of catchment oudet runoff explained by runoff from the GrIS decreased on average {approx} 10%, indicating that catchment runoff throughout the simulation period was influenced more by precipitation and snowmelt events, and less by runoff from the GrIS. Average variations in the increasing Kangerlussuaq runoff from 1978/79 through 2007/08 seem to follow the overall variations in satellite-derived GrIS surface melt, where 64% of the variations in simulated runoff were explained by regional melt conditions on the GrIS. Throughout the simulation period, the sediment load varied from a minimum of 0.96 x 10{sup 6} t y{sup -1} in 1991/92 to a maximum of 3.52 x 10{sup 6} t y{sup -1} in 2006/07, showing an average increase of sediment load of 9.42 x 10{sup 5} t (or 72%) throughout the period.« less

Linear and nonlinear characteristics of the runoff response to regional climate factors in the Qira River basin, Xinjiang, Northwest China.

PubMed

Xue, Jie; Gui, Dongwei

2015-01-01

The inland river watersheds of arid Northwest China represent an example of how, in recent times, climatic warming has increased the complexity of Earth's hydrological processes. In the present study, the linear and nonlinear characteristics of the runoff response to temperature and precipitation were investigated in the Qira River basin, located on the northern slope of the Kunlun Mountains. The results showed that average temperature on annual and seasonal scales has displayed a significantly increasing trend, but this has not been reflected in accumulated precipitation and runoff. Using path analysis, a positive link between precipitation and runoff was found both annually and in the summer season. Conversely, it was found that the impact of temperature on runoff has been negative since the 1960s, attributable to higher evaporation and infiltration in the Qira River basin. Over the past 50 years, abrupt changes in annual temperature, precipitation and runoff occurred in 1997, 1987 and 1995, respectively. Combined with analysis using the correlation dimension method, it was found that the temperature, precipitation and runoff, both annually and seasonally, possessed chaotic dynamic characteristics, implying that complex hydro-climatic processes must be introduced into other variables within models to describe the dynamics. In addition, as determined via rescaled range analysis, a consistent annual and seasonal decreasing trend in runoff under increasing temperature and precipitation conditions in the future should be taken into account. This work may provide a theoretical perspective that can be applied to the proper use and management of oasis water resources in the lower reaches of river basins like that of the Qira River.

Linear and nonlinear characteristics of the runoff response to regional climate factors in the Qira River basin, Xinjiang, Northwest China

PubMed Central

Xue, Jie

2015-01-01

The inland river watersheds of arid Northwest China represent an example of how, in recent times, climatic warming has increased the complexity of Earth’s hydrological processes. In the present study, the linear and nonlinear characteristics of the runoff response to temperature and precipitation were investigated in the Qira River basin, located on the northern slope of the Kunlun Mountains. The results showed that average temperature on annual and seasonal scales has displayed a significantly increasing trend, but this has not been reflected in accumulated precipitation and runoff. Using path analysis, a positive link between precipitation and runoff was found both annually and in the summer season. Conversely, it was found that the impact of temperature on runoff has been negative since the 1960s, attributable to higher evaporation and infiltration in the Qira River basin. Over the past 50 years, abrupt changes in annual temperature, precipitation and runoff occurred in 1997, 1987 and 1995, respectively. Combined with analysis using the correlation dimension method, it was found that the temperature, precipitation and runoff, both annually and seasonally, possessed chaotic dynamic characteristics, implying that complex hydro-climatic processes must be introduced into other variables within models to describe the dynamics. In addition, as determined via rescaled range analysis, a consistent annual and seasonal decreasing trend in runoff under increasing temperature and precipitation conditions in the future should be taken into account. This work may provide a theoretical perspective that can be applied to the proper use and management of oasis water resources in the lower reaches of river basins like that of the Qira River. PMID:26244113

40 CFR 418.11 - Specialized definitions.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-07-01

... including precipitation runoff which, during manufacturing or processing, comes into incidental contact with...) Precipitation runoff; (2) accidental spills; (3) accidental leaks caused by the failure of process equipment and... shall mean the maximum 24-hour precipitation event with a probable recurrence interval of once in 10...

Methods of Data Collection, Sample Processing, and Data Analysis for Edge-of-Field, Streamgaging, Subsurface-Tile, and Meteorological Stations at Discovery Farms and Pioneer Farm in Wisconsin, 2001-7

USGS Publications Warehouse

Stuntebeck, Todd D.; Komiskey, Matthew J.; Owens, David W.; Hall, David W.

2008-01-01

The University of Wisconsin (UW)-Madison Discovery Farms (Discovery Farms) and UW-Platteville Pioneer Farm (Pioneer Farm) programs were created in 2000 to help Wisconsin farmers meet environmental and economic challenges. As a partner with each program, and in cooperation with the Wisconsin Department of Natural Resources and the Sand County Foundation, the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) Wisconsin Water Science Center (WWSC) installed, maintained, and operated equipment to collect water-quantity and water-quality data from 25 edge-offield, 6 streamgaging, and 5 subsurface-tile stations at 7 Discovery Farms and Pioneer Farm. The farms are located in the southern half of Wisconsin and represent a variety of landscape settings and crop- and animal-production enterprises common to Wisconsin agriculture. Meteorological stations were established at most farms to measure precipitation, wind speed and direction, air and soil temperature (in profile), relative humidity, solar radiation, and soil moisture (in profile). Data collection began in September 2001 and is continuing through the present (2008). This report describes methods used by USGS WWSC personnel to collect, process, and analyze water-quantity, water-quality, and meteorological data for edge-of-field, streamgaging, subsurface-tile, and meteorological stations at Discovery Farms and Pioneer Farm from September 2001 through October 2007. Information presented includes equipment used; event-monitoring and samplecollection procedures; station maintenance; sample handling and processing procedures; water-quantity, waterquality, and precipitation data analyses; and procedures for determining estimated constituent concentrations for unsampled runoff events.

Quantitative analysis of the effect of climate change and human activities on runoff in the Liujiang River Basin

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

LI, X.

2017-12-01

Abstract: As human basic and strategic natural resources, Water resources have received an unprecedented challenge under the impacts of global climate change. Analyzing the variation characteristics of runoff and the effect of climate change and human activities on runoff could provide the basis for the reasonable utilization and management of water resources. Taking the Liujiang River Basin as the research object, the discharge data of hydrological station and meteorological data at 24 meteorological stations in the Guangxi Province as the basis, the variation characteristics of runoff and precipitation in the Liujiang River Basin was analyzed, and the quantitatively effect of climate change and human activities on runoff was proposed. The results showed that runoff and precipitation in the Liujiang River Basin had an increasing trend from 1964 to 2006. Using the method of accumulative anomaly and the orderly cluster method, the runoff series was divided into base period and change period. BP - ANN model and sensitivity coefficient method were used for quantifying the influences of climate change and human activities on runoff. We found that the most important factor which caused an increase trend of discharges in the Liujiang River Basin was precipitation. Human activities were also important factors which influenced the intra-annual distribution of runoff. Precipitation had a more sensitive influence to runoff variation than potential evaporation in the Liujiang River Basin. Key words: Liujiang River Basin, climate change, human activities, BP-ANN, sensitivity coefficient method

How does bias correction of regional climate model precipitation affect modelled runoff?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Teng, J.; Potter, N. J.; Chiew, F. H. S.; Zhang, L.; Wang, B.; Vaze, J.; Evans, J. P.

2015-02-01

Many studies bias correct daily precipitation from climate models to match the observed precipitation statistics, and the bias corrected data are then used for various modelling applications. This paper presents a review of recent methods used to bias correct precipitation from regional climate models (RCMs). The paper then assesses four bias correction methods applied to the weather research and forecasting (WRF) model simulated precipitation, and the follow-on impact on modelled runoff for eight catchments in southeast Australia. Overall, the best results are produced by either quantile mapping or a newly proposed two-state gamma distribution mapping method. However, the differences between the methods are small in the modelling experiments here (and as reported in the literature), mainly due to the substantial corrections required and inconsistent errors over time (non-stationarity). The errors in bias corrected precipitation are typically amplified in modelled runoff. The tested methods cannot overcome limitations of the RCM in simulating precipitation sequence, which affects runoff generation. Results further show that whereas bias correction does not seem to alter change signals in precipitation means, it can introduce additional uncertainty to change signals in high precipitation amounts and, consequently, in runoff. Future climate change impact studies need to take this into account when deciding whether to use raw or bias corrected RCM results. Nevertheless, RCMs will continue to improve and will become increasingly useful for hydrological applications as the bias in RCM simulations reduces.

Exploiting Soil Moisture, Precipitation, and Streamflow Observations to Evaluate Soil Moisture/Runoff Coupling in Land Surface Models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Crow, W. T.; Chen, F.; Reichle, R. H.; Xia, Y.; Liu, Q.

2018-05-01

Accurate partitioning of precipitation into infiltration and runoff is a fundamental objective of land surface models tasked with characterizing the surface water and energy balance. Temporal variability in this partitioning is due, in part, to changes in prestorm soil moisture, which determine soil infiltration capacity and unsaturated storage. Utilizing the National Aeronautics and Space Administration Soil Moisture Active Passive Level-4 soil moisture product in combination with streamflow and precipitation observations, we demonstrate that land surface models (LSMs) generally underestimate the strength of the positive rank correlation between prestorm soil moisture and event runoff coefficients (i.e., the fraction of rainfall accumulation volume converted into stormflow runoff during a storm event). Underestimation is largest for LSMs employing an infiltration-excess approach for stormflow runoff generation. More accurate coupling strength is found in LSMs that explicitly represent subsurface stormflow or saturation-excess runoff generation processes.

Characterization of stormwater runoff from bridges in North Carolina and the effects of bridge runoff on receiving streams

USGS Publications Warehouse

Wagner, Chad; Fitzgerald, Sharon; Lauffer, Matthew

2015-01-01

The presentation will provide an overview of a collaborative study between USGS, NC Department of Transportation and URS Corporation to characterize stormwater runoff from bridges in North Carolina and the effects of bridge runoff on receiving streams. This investigation measured bridge deck runoff from 15 bridges for 12-15 storms, stream water-quality data for baseflow and storm conditions at four of the bridge deck sites and streambed sediment chemistry upstream and downstream of 30 bridges across North Carolina. Background on why the study was conducted, objectives and scope and a general summary of the major results and conclusions will be presented.

Statistical attribution analysis of the nonstationarity of the annual runoff series of the Weihe River.

PubMed

Xiong, Lihua; Jiang, Cong; Du, Tao

2014-01-01

Time-varying moments models based on Pearson Type III and normal distributions respectively are built under the generalized additive model in location, scale and shape (GAMLSS) framework to analyze the nonstationarity of the annual runoff series of the Weihe River, the largest tributary of the Yellow River. The detection of nonstationarities in hydrological time series (annual runoff, precipitation and temperature) from 1960 to 2009 is carried out using a GAMLSS model, and then the covariate analysis for the annual runoff series is implemented with GAMLSS. Finally, the attribution of each covariate to the nonstationarity of annual runoff is analyzed quantitatively. The results demonstrate that (1) obvious change-points exist in all three hydrological series, (2) precipitation, temperature and irrigated area are all significant covariates of the annual runoff series, and (3) temperature increase plays the main role in leading to the reduction of the annual runoff series in the study basin, followed by the decrease of precipitation and the increase of irrigated area.

The Hydrologic regime over the last 90 years in the Flumendosa basin, Sardinia: the effect of climate change.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cardiff, M. A.; Zhou, Y.; Lim, D.; Bakhos, T.; Hochstetler, D. L.; Barrash, W.; Kitanidis, P. K.

2014-12-01

Dry periods increased in frequency over the Mediterranean climates with dramatic effects on the management of ecosystems, agriculture, and drinking water supplies. In the semi-arid Mediterranean regions, such as Sardinian island, dam reservoirs are key elements of the water resources system, because they accumulate autumn and winter runoff, which is then available for the dry months. In this sense, also the seasonal precipitation distribution and its time and spatial variability can be considered hydrologically important. In the Flumendosa basin (Sardinia), which is characterized by a reservoir system that supplies water to the main city of Sardinia, Cagliari, a drastic runoff reduction has been observed in last thirty years. Using data from 41 rain gauges stations (1922-2007 period) and runoff data at the outlet section, we show that: 1) the annual runoff in the latter part of the 20th century was less than half the historic average rate, 2) while the precipitation over the Flumendosa basin has decreased, but not at such a drastic rate as the discharge, suggesting a marked non-linear response of discharge to precipitation changes. Indeed runoff coefficient anomaly are strictly related to winter precipitation (correlation coefficient of 0.5). Trends in precipitation series, in the number of wet days and temperature were examined using the Mann-Kendall non parametric trend test, showing negative trends (-0.25 in winter for both precipitation and runoff). The relationship between winter precipitation and large scale pressure indices, such as the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), has been also investigated. High correlation between NAO and precipitation and runoff, -0.48 and -0.42 respectively, during the winter season is estimated for the whole basin homogenously, highlighting the large impact of NAO on the hydrologic dynamics of this Sardinian basin located in the east coast of the island.

The Hydrologic regime over the last 90 years in the Flumendosa basin, Sardinia: the effect of climate change.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Corona, R.; Montaldo, N.; Albertson, J. D.

2015-12-01

Dry periods increased in frequency over the Mediterranean climates with dramatic effects on the management of ecosystems, agriculture, and drinking water supplies. In the semi-arid Mediterranean regions, such as Sardinian island, dam reservoirs are key elements of the water resources system, because they accumulate autumn and winter runoff, which is then available for the dry months. In this sense, also the seasonal precipitation distribution and its time and spatial variability can be considered hydrologically important. In the Flumendosa basin (Sardinia), which is characterized by a reservoir system that supplies water to the main city of Sardinia, Cagliari, a drastic runoff reduction has been observed in last thirty years. Using data from 41 rain gauges stations (1922-2007 period) and runoff data at the outlet section, we show that: 1) the annual runoff in the latter part of the 20th century was less than half the historic average rate, 2) while the precipitation over the Flumendosa basin has decreased, but not at such a drastic rate as the discharge, suggesting a marked non-linear response of discharge to precipitation changes. Indeed runoff coefficient anomaly are strictly related to winter precipitation (correlation coefficient of 0.5). Trends in precipitation series, in the number of wet days and temperature were examined using the Mann-Kendall non parametric trend test, showing negative trends (-0.25 in winter for both precipitation and runoff). The relationship between winter precipitation and large scale pressure indices, such as the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), has been also investigated. High correlation between NAO and precipitation and runoff, -0.48 and -0.42 respectively, during the winter season is estimated for the whole basin homogenously, highlighting the large impact of NAO on the hydrologic dynamics of this Sardinian basin located in the east coast of the island.

Impacts of the active layer on runoff in an upland permafrost basin, northern Tibetan Plateau

PubMed Central

Zhang, Tingjun; Guo, Hong; Hu, Yuantao; Shang, Jianguo; Zhang, Yulan

2018-01-01

The paucity of studies on permafrost runoff generation processes, especially in mountain permafrost, constrains the understanding of permafrost hydrology and prediction of hydrological responses to permafrost degradation. This study investigated runoff generation processes, in addition to the contribution of summer thaw depth, soil temperature, soil moisture, and precipitation to streamflow in a small upland permafrost basin in the northern Tibetan Plateau. Results indicated that the thawing period and the duration of the zero-curtain were longer in permafrost of the northern Tibetan Plateau than in the Arctic. Limited snowmelt delayed the initiation of surface runoff in the peat permafrost in the study area. The runoff displayed intermittent generation, with the duration of most runoff events lasting less than 24 h. Precipitation without runoff generation was generally correlated with lower soil moisture conditions. Combined analysis suggested runoff generation in this region was controlled by soil temperature, thaw depth, precipitation frequency and amount, and antecedent soil moisture. This study serves as an important baseline to evaluate future environmental changes on the Tibetan Plateau. PMID:29470510

Impacts of the active layer on runoff in an upland permafrost basin, northern Tibetan Plateau.

PubMed

Gao, Tanguang; Zhang, Tingjun; Guo, Hong; Hu, Yuantao; Shang, Jianguo; Zhang, Yulan

2018-01-01

The paucity of studies on permafrost runoff generation processes, especially in mountain permafrost, constrains the understanding of permafrost hydrology and prediction of hydrological responses to permafrost degradation. This study investigated runoff generation processes, in addition to the contribution of summer thaw depth, soil temperature, soil moisture, and precipitation to streamflow in a small upland permafrost basin in the northern Tibetan Plateau. Results indicated that the thawing period and the duration of the zero-curtain were longer in permafrost of the northern Tibetan Plateau than in the Arctic. Limited snowmelt delayed the initiation of surface runoff in the peat permafrost in the study area. The runoff displayed intermittent generation, with the duration of most runoff events lasting less than 24 h. Precipitation without runoff generation was generally correlated with lower soil moisture conditions. Combined analysis suggested runoff generation in this region was controlled by soil temperature, thaw depth, precipitation frequency and amount, and antecedent soil moisture. This study serves as an important baseline to evaluate future environmental changes on the Tibetan Plateau.

Design and quantification of an extreme winter storm scenario for emergency preparedness and planning exercises in California

USGS Publications Warehouse

Dettinger, M.D.; Martin, Ralph F.; Hughes, M.; Das, T.; Neiman, P.; Cox, D.; Estes, G.; Reynolds, D.; Hartman, R.; Cayan, D.; Jones, L.

2012-01-01

The USGS Multihazards Project is working with numerous agencies to evaluate and plan for hazards and damages that could be caused by extreme winter storms impacting California. Atmospheric and hydrological aspects of a hypothetical storm scenario have been quantified as a basis for estimation of human, infrastructure, economic, and environmental impacts for emergency-preparedness and flood-planning exercises. In order to ensure scientific defensibility and necessary levels of detail in the scenario description, selected historical storm episodes were concatentated to describe a rapid arrival of several major storms over the state, yielding precipitation totals and runoff rates beyond those occurring during the individual historical storms. This concatenation allowed the scenario designers to avoid arbitrary scalings and is based on historical occasions from the 19th and 20th Centuries when storms have stalled over the state and when extreme storms have arrived in rapid succession. Dynamically consistent, hourly precipitation, temperatures, barometric pressures (for consideration of storm surges and coastal erosion), and winds over California were developed for the so-called ARkStorm scenario by downscaling the concatenated global records of the historical storm sequences onto 6- and 2-km grids using a regional weather model of January 1969 and February 1986 storm conditions. The weather model outputs were then used to force a hydrologic model to simulate ARkStorm runoff, to better understand resulting flooding risks. Methods used to build this scenario can be applied to other emergency, nonemergency and non-California applications. ?? 2011 The Author(s).

Are human activities induced runoff change overestimated?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, Danwu; Cong, Zhentao

2017-04-01

In the context of climate change, not only does the amount of annual precipitation and potential evapotranspiration alter, but also do the seasonal characteristics of climate, such as intra-annual distribution of water and energy. Yet, the runoff change induced by the change in seasonality of climatic forces is seldom evaluated, which is usually thought as the results of human activity, leading to contaminative runoff change attribution results. The past 50-year climatology seasonality was investigated by analyzing the daily meteorological records of 743 national weather stations across the China. Obvious spatial pattern of climatology seasonality emerged in China. The trend analysis indicated that there is decrease in precipitation seasonality, leaving other seasonal characteristics, such as peak time of climate forcing unchanged. With the aid of stochastic soil moisture model, water-energy balance models which take the effects of climate seasonality into consideration are developed. Efforts are made to achieve a better understanding of mean annual runoff change due to the climate change. As a representative of hydrologic responses, the contributions of variations in climate, especially in precipitation seasonality, and land use to runoff change of 282 catchments in China were evaluated. The results showed that the decline of precipitation seasonality has a significant influence on runoff change in the Yellow River, Haihe River and Liaohe River. Meanwhile, it also indicated that the contribution of land use change to runoff change is overestimated by the common runoff change attribution methods.

Exploring the causes of Colorado River streamflow declines

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Xiao, M.; Lettenmaier, D. P.; Udall, B. H.

2016-12-01

As the major river of the Southwestern U.S., the Colorado River (CR) is central to the region's water resources. Over the period 1916-2014, the river's naturalized Apr-Sep flow at Lee's Ferry declined by 18.4%, a number that is closely matched (19.8%) by reconstructions for the same period using the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) hydrology model. However, basin-average annual precipitation over that period declined by only 4.4%. In order to examine the causes of the runoff declines, we performed experiments with the VIC model in which we detrended the model's temperature forcings (about 1.6°C over the 100-year record) for each of 24 sub-basins that make up the basin. We find that decreases in winter precipitation (the season that controls annual runoff) mostly occured in the northeast part of the basin while summer precipitation decreases (which have much less effect on annual runoff) occurred over much of the lower basin. Our model simulations suggest that about 2/3 of observed runoff declines are attributable to decreases in winter precipitation (most importantly, in the upper basin, where most of the basin's runoff is generated). The remaining 1/3 is attributable to warming temperatures. We also examine what appear to be changing characteristics of droughts in the basin. Compared with a prolonged drought in the 1960s, which was characterized by abnormally low precipitation and cool temperatures, temperatures during the ongoing millennial drought have been much warmer, but winter precipitation anomalies have been only slightly negative. During the 2000s drought, the basin-wide runoff anomaly has been about -3.8 km3/yr, with four sub-basins in the northeastern part of the basin accounting for about 2/3 of the annual runoff anomaly.

Hydrologic Interpretations of Long-Term Gravity Records at Tucson, Arizona

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pool, D. R.; Kennedy, J.; MacQueen, P.; Niebauer, T. M.

2016-12-01

The USGS Arizona Water Science Center monitors groundwater storage using gravity methods at sites across the western United States. A site at the USGS office in Tucson serves as a test station that has been monitored since 1997 using several types of gravity meters. Prior to 2007, the site was observed twice each year by the National Geodetic Survey using an FG5 absolute gravity meter for the purpose of establishing control for local relative gravity surveys of aquifer storage change. Beginning in 2003 the site has also served as a reference to verify the accuracy of an A10 absolute gravity meter that is used for field surveys. The site is in an alluvial basin where gravity can vary with aquifer storage change caused by variable groundwater withdrawals, elevation change caused by aquifer compaction or expansion, and occasional recharge. In addition, continuous gravity records were collected for periods of several months using a super-conducting meter during 2010-2011 and using a spring-based gPhone meter during 2015-2016. The purpose of the continuous records was to provide more precise information about monthly and shorter period variations that could be related to variations in nearby groundwater withdrawals. The record of absolute gravity observations displays variations of as much as 35 microGal that correspond with local hydrologic variations documented from precipitation, streamflow, elevation, depths to water, and well pumping records. Depth to water in nearby wells display variations related to occasional local heavy precipitation events, runoff, recharge, and groundwater withdrawals. Increases in gravity that occur over periods of several months or longer correspond with occasional heavy precipitation and recharge. Periods of gravity decline occur during extended periods between recharge events and periods of increased local groundwater withdrawals. Analysis of the continuous records from both instruments indicate that groundwater drains slowly from storage in response to pumping variations, requiring several days or longer for the aquifer to drain, which is consistent with other hydrologic records.

Stormwater-runoff data for a multifamily residential area, Dade County, Florida

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hardee, Jack; Mattraw, H.C.; Miller, Robert A.

1979-01-01

Rainfall, stormwater discharge, and water-quality data for a multifamily residential area in Dade County, Florida, are summarized. Loads for 19 water-quality constituents were computed for runoff from 16 storms from May 1977 through June 1978. The 14.7 acre basin contains apartment buildings with adjacent parking lots. The total surface area consists of 70.7 percent impervious material. (Kosco-USGS)

Quantifying the present-day human influence on temperature, precipitation, and runoff in an pre-Alpine Swiss catchment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mülchi, Regula; Rössler, Ole; Romppainen-Martius, Olivia; Pall, Pardeep; Weingartner, Rolf

2017-04-01

Understanding the influence of anthropogenic greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions on climate and environmental variables is still a challenge in science. Many detection and attribution studies have been carried out focusing on global and regional scales or on single events. However, the influence of anthropogenic greenhouse gas emission on both, runoff regime and driving meteorological characteristics is still an open question. This study assesses the influence of anthropogenic GHG emissions on temperature, precipitation, and river runoff in a pre-Alpine catchment in Switzerland. For this purpose, thousands of one-year (April 2000-March 2001) simulations representing both, a present-day climate with actual anthropogenic GHG concentrations (A2000), and a climate with pre-industrial GHG concentrations (A2000N) were bias-corrected and used to analyze changes in temperature and precipitation. The two variables were then used to drive the hydrological model GR4J including the snow module Cemaneige for the river Thur (1700 km2). Comparing the runoff of the two scenarios and calculating the fraction of attributable risk (FAR) as well as the change in probability of occurrence (PR) for specific runoff thresholds enabled the assessment of the influence of anthropogenic GHG emissions. We found higher mean runoff in winter and spring in the A2000 scenario compared to the A2000N scenario. This is mainly caused by the combination of higher precipitation and higher temperatures in winter resulting in less snow accumulation in the A2000 scenario. Therefore, more liquid water is available in the hydrological model leading to enhanced runoff. In contrast, the A2000 simulations exhibit lower runoff in summer and autumn than the A2000N simulations. We relate this to higher temperatures in the A2000 scenario enhancing evapotranspiration and lower precipitation amounts. The calculation of FAR and PR for different runoff thresholds indicates that the FAR and PR increase with higher thresholds suggesting stronger influence of anthropogenic GHG emissions on the very high river flows. The bias-correction led to a reduction of FAR and PR and to an increase in the corresponding uncertainty ranges. This study demonstrates that temperature and precipitation in Switzerland as well as the runoff regime and runoff extremes have changed due to the emission of anthropogenic GHGs. It also highlights the influence of bias-correction on the estimation of FAR and PR.

40 CFR 418.11 - Specialized definitions.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

2012-07-01

... AND STANDARDS FERTILIZER MANUFACTURING POINT SOURCE CATEGORY Phosphate Subcategory § 418.11... any water including precipitation runoff which, during manufacturing or processing, comes into... by means of: (1) Precipitation runoff; (2) accidental spills; (3) accidental leaks caused by the...

PRMS-IV, the precipitation-runoff modeling system, version 4

USGS Publications Warehouse

Markstrom, Steven L.; Regan, R. Steve; Hay, Lauren E.; Viger, Roland J.; Webb, Richard M.; Payn, Robert A.; LaFontaine, Jacob H.

2015-01-01

Computer models that simulate the hydrologic cycle at a watershed scale facilitate assessment of variability in climate, biota, geology, and human activities on water availability and flow. This report describes an updated version of the Precipitation-Runoff Modeling System. The Precipitation-Runoff Modeling System is a deterministic, distributed-parameter, physical-process-based modeling system developed to evaluate the response of various combinations of climate and land use on streamflow and general watershed hydrology. Several new model components were developed, and all existing components were updated, to enhance performance and supportability. This report describes the history, application, concepts, organization, and mathematical formulation of the Precipitation-Runoff Modeling System and its model components. This updated version provides improvements in (1) system flexibility for integrated science, (2) verification of conservation of water during simulation, (3) methods for spatial distribution of climate boundary conditions, and (4) methods for simulation of soil-water flow and storage.

Potential links between the North Atlantic Oscillation and decreasing precipitation and runoff on a Mediterranean area

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Montaldo, Nicola; Sarigu, Alessio

2017-10-01

In the Mediterranean region, the reduction in precipitation and warmer temperatures is generating a desertification process, with dramatic consequences for both agriculture and the sustainability of water resources. On the island of Sardinia (Italy), the decrease in runoff impacts the management of water resources, resulting in water supply restrictions even for domestic consumption. In the 10 Sardinian basins with a longer database (at least 40 complete years of data, including data from the past 10 years), runoff decreased drastically over the 1975-2010 period, with mean yearly runoff reduced by more than 40% compared to the previous 1922-1974 period. Trends in yearly runoff are negative, with Mann-Kendall τ values ranging from -0.39 to -0.2. Decreasing winter precipitation over the 1975-2010 period everywhere on Sardinia island has led to these decreases in runoff, as most yearly runoff in the Sardinian basins (70% on average) is produced by winter precipitation due to the seasonality typical of the Mediterranean climate regime. The trend in winter precipitation is not homogenous; the negative trend is higher (around -0.25) on the west Sardinian coast, becoming lower across the island toward the east coast (around -0.14). Winter precipitation is highly correlated with the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), a weather phenomenon in the North Atlantic Ocean that controls the direction and strength of westerly winds and storm tracks into Europe. High negative correlations (up to -0.45) between winter NAO index and winter precipitation are estimated along the west coast. Meanwhile, these correlations decrease east across the island toward the high mountain in the center of Sardinia, reaching the lowest values along the east coast (about -0.25). The generally decreasing correlation between winter NAO index and winter precipitation in the longitudinal direction (from the North Atlantic dipole to the east) here accelerates due to local-scale orographic effects that overlap the large-scale NAO impact on the winter precipitation regime, thus softening the precipitation reduction due to the NAO. Such local topographic effects that may attenuate large-scale climate change effects must be considered in water resource planning and management alongside such climate change effects related to large-scale circulations, such as NAO.

Potential links between the North Atlantic Oscillation and decreasing precipitation and runoff on Sardinia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sarigu, A.; Montaldo, N.

2017-12-01

In the Mediterranean region, the reduction in precipitation and warmer temperatures is generating a desertification process, with dramatic consequences for both agriculture and the sustainability of water resources. On the island of Sardinia (Italy), the decrease in runoff impacts the management of water resources, resulting in water supply restrictions even for domestic consumption. In the 10 Sardinian basins with a longer database (at least 40 complete years of data, including data from the past 10 years), runoff decreased drastically over the 1975-2010 period, with mean yearly runoff reduced by more than 40% compared to the previous 1922-1974 period. Trends in yearly runoff are negative, with Mann-Kendall τ values ranging from -0.39 to -0.2. Decreasing winter precipitation over the 1975-2010 period everywhere on Sardinia island has led to these decreases in runoff, as most yearly runoff in the Sardinian basins (70% on average) is produced by winter precipitation due to the seasonality typical of the Mediterranean climate regime. The trend in winter precipitation is not homogenous; the negative trend is higher (around -0.25) on the west Sardinian coast, becoming lower across the island toward the east coast (around -0.14). Winter precipitation is highly correlated with the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), a weather phenomenon in the North Atlantic Ocean that controls the direction and strength of westerly winds and storm tracks into Europe. High negative correlations (up to -0.45) between winter NAO index and winter precipitation are estimated along the west coast. Meanwhile, these correlations decrease east across the island toward the high mountain in the center of Sardinia, reaching the lowest values along the east coast (about -0.25). The decreasing correlation between winter NAO index and winter precipitation in the longitudinal direction (from the North Atlantic dipole to the east) here accelerates due to local-scale orographic effects that overlap the large-scale NAO impact on the winter precipitation regime, thus softening the precipitation reduction due to the NAO. Such local topographic effects that may attenuate large-scale climate change effects must be considered in water resource planning and management alongside such climate change effects related to large-scale circulations, such as NAO.

Increasing drought risk in large-dam basins of South Korea

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jung, I. W.; Shin, Y.; Park, J.; Kim, D.

2017-12-01

In 2015, South Korea suffered one of the worst droughts in recent years. Seoul and Gyeonggi and Gangwon provinces experienced severe drought conditions, receiving less than 43 percent of the annual precipitation average of the past 30 years. Additionally, the 2015 summer precipitation was less than half of the average. The lack of summer precipitation induced serious shortages in dam storages, which are important supplies for the dry season. K-water, a public company managing South Korea's public water supply system, is fighting to secure public water supply and minimize potential damage that may occur before the subsequent wet season. This study detected significant decreasing trends (95% confidence interval) in dry-seasonal runoff rates (=dam inflow / precipitation) in three dams basins (Soyang, Chungju, and Andong). Changes in potential evapotranspiration (PET) and precipitation indices were examined to investigate potential causes of decreasing runoff rates trends. However, there were no clear relations among changes in runoff rates, PET, and precipitation indices. Runoff rate reduction in the three dams may increase the risk of dam operational management and long-term water resource planning. Therefore, it will be necessary to perform a multilateral analysis to better understand decreasing runoff rates.AcknowledgementsThis research was supported by a grant(2017-MPSS31-001) from Supporting Technology Development Program for Disaster Management funded by Ministry of Public Safety and Security(MPSS) of the Korean government.

40 CFR 418.11 - Specialized definitions.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-07-01

... STANDARDS FERTILIZER MANUFACTURING POINT SOURCE CATEGORY Phosphate Subcategory § 418.11 Specialized... including precipitation runoff which, during manufacturing or processing, comes into incidental contact with...) Precipitation runoff; (2) accidental spills; (3) accidental leaks caused by the failure of process equipment and...

40 CFR 418.11 - Specialized definitions.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

2014-07-01

... STANDARDS FERTILIZER MANUFACTURING POINT SOURCE CATEGORY Phosphate Subcategory § 418.11 Specialized... including precipitation runoff which, during manufacturing or processing, comes into incidental contact with...) Precipitation runoff; (2) accidental spills; (3) accidental leaks caused by the failure of process equipment and...

40 CFR 418.11 - Specialized definitions.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-07-01

... STANDARDS FERTILIZER MANUFACTURING POINT SOURCE CATEGORY Phosphate Subcategory § 418.11 Specialized... including precipitation runoff which, during manufacturing or processing, comes into incidental contact with...) Precipitation runoff; (2) accidental spills; (3) accidental leaks caused by the failure of process equipment and...

Human activity and climate variability impacts on sediment discharge and runoff in the Yellow River of China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

He, Yi; Wang, Fei; Mu, Xingmin; Guo, Lanqin; Gao, Peng; Zhao, Guangju

2017-07-01

We analyze the variability of sediment discharge and runoff in the Hekou-Longmen segment in the middle reaches of the Yellow River, China. Our analysis is based on Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI), sediment discharge, runoff, and monthly meteorological data (1961-2010). The climate conditions are controlled via monthly regional average precipitation and potential evapotranspiration (ET0) that are calculated with the Penman-Monteith method. Data regarding water and soil conservation infrastructure and their effects were investigated as causal factors of runoff and sediment discharge changes. The results indicated the following conclusions: (1) The sediment concentration, sediment discharge, and annual runoff, varied considerably during the study period and all of these factors exhibited larger coefficients of variation than ET0 and precipitation. (2) Sediment discharge, annual runoff, and sediment concentration significantly declined over the study period in a linear fashion. This was accompanied by an increase in ET0 and decline in precipitation that were not significant. (3) Within paired years with similar precipitation and potential evapotranspiration conditions (SPEC), all pairs showed a decline in runoff, sediment discharge, and sediment concentration. (4) Human impacts in this region were markedly high as indicated by NDVI, and soil and water measurements, and especially the soil and water conservation infrastructure resulting in an approximately 312 Mt year-1 of sediment deposition during 1960-1999.

Trends in timing, magnitude, and duration of summer and fall/winter streamflows for unregulated coastal river basins in Maine during the 20th century

USGS Publications Warehouse

Dudley, Robert W.; Hodgkins, Glenn A.

2005-01-01

The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), in cooperation with the Maine Atlantic Salmon Commission (ASC), began a study in 2003 to examine the timing, magnitude, and duration of summer (June through October) and fall/early winter (September through January) seasonal streamflows of unregulated coastal river basins in Maine and to correlate them to meteorological variables and winter/spring (January through May) seasonal streamflows. This study overlapped the summer seasonal window with the fall/early winter seasonal window to completely bracket the low-streamflow period during July, August, and September between periods of high streamflows in June and October. The ASC is concerned with the impacts of potentially changing meteorological and hydrologic conditions on Atlantic salmon survival. Because winter/spring high streamflows appear to have trended toward earlier dates over the 20th century in coastal Maine, it was hypothesized that the spring/summer recession to low streamflows could have a similar trend toward earlier, and possibly lower, longer lasting, late summer/early fall low streamflows during the 20th century. There were few statistically significant trends in the timing, magnitude, or duration of summer low streamflows for coastal river basins in Maine during the 20th century. The hypothesis that earlier winter/spring high streamflows may result in earlier or lower low streamflows is not supported by the data. No statistically significant trends in the magnitude of total runoff volume during the low-streamflow months of August and September were observed. The magnitude and timing of summer low streamflows correlated with the timing of fall/winter high streamflows and the amount of summer precipitation. The magnitude and timing of summer low streamflows did not correlate with the timing of spring snowmelt runoff. There were few correlations between the magnitude and timing of summer low streamflows and monthly mean surface air temperatures. There were few statistically significant trends in the timing or duration of fall/winter high streamflows for coastal river basins in Maine during the 20th century. The timing of the bulk of fall/winter high streamflows correlated with seasonal precipitation. Earlier fall/winter center-of-volume dates correlated with higher September and October precipitation. In general, little evidence was observed of trends in the magnitude of seasonal runoff volume during fall/winter. The magnitude of fall/winter high streamflows positively correlated with November and December precipitation amounts. There were few correlations between the magnitude and timing of fall/winter high streamflows and monthly mean surface air temperatures.

Hydrogeology of the Salamanca area, Cattaraugus County, New York

USGS Publications Warehouse

Zarriello, Phillip J.

1987-01-01

The hydrogeology of a 132-sq mi area centered at Salamanca, NY, is summarized in five maps at 1:24,000 scale. The maps show locations of wells and test holes, surficial geology and geologic sections, water-table surface, soil permeability, and land use. The valley-fill aquifer in the Salamanca area serves approximately 7,000 people through two major distribution systems with an average daily pumpage of 1.2 million gal/day. The aquifer, composed of outwash sand and gravel, averages 60 ft in thickness and overlies as much as 200 ft of lacustrine silt and clay. The aquifer is recharged directly from precipitation and through seepage from streams. Average annual recharge to the aquifer from direct precipitation and infiltration of runoff from adjacent hillsides is estimated to be 13 inches or 0.6 million gal/day/sq mi. The glacial features in the Allegheny valley near Salamanca are associated with Illinoian and Wisconsin glaciations. Illinoian features consist of small, isolated exposures of outwash and till emplaced against the valley walls. Wisconsin features deposited during Altonian and Woodfordian Times of the Wisconsin consist mainly of end moraines and valley-train outwash. (USGS)

Evaluation of Structural Best Management Practices for Highway Runoff in Beaufort and Colleton Counties, South Carolina, 2005-2006

USGS Publications Warehouse

Conlon, Kevin; Journey, Celeste

2009-01-01

As part of the National Pollutant Discharge Elimination System (NPDES) permit program mandated in the Clean Water Act, the South Carolina Department of Transportation (SCDOT) is required to address the quality of stormwater runoff from state-maintained roadways. From 2005 to 2006, the SCDOT and the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) worked cooperatively in Beaufort and Colleton Counties, South Carolina (SC), to evaluate the performance of four different structural devices that served as best management practices (BMPs). These structural devices were installed to lessen the potential effects of stormwater runoff on water quality in waterways near state roads. The purpose of this Fact Sheet is to summarize results published in the USGS Scientific Investigations Report 2008-5150. The report documents the ability of these four BMP devices to remove suspended sediment, metals, nutrients, and organics compounds in stormwater runoff. The quantity of rainfall and stormflow and quality of stormwater entering and leaving the BMPs were monitored during 12-13 storms over a 21-month period. The results provide the SCDOT with quantitative information to evaluate whether or not the BMPs effectively enhanced stormwater quality. This information can be used by the SCDOT and other State, local, and Federal agencies in the selection of appropriate BMPs for future installation.

Modeling precipitation-runoff relationships to determine water yield from a ponderosa pine forest watershed

Treesearch

Assefa S. Desta

2006-01-01

A stochastic precipitation-runoff modeling is used to estimate a cold and warm-seasons water yield from a ponderosa pine forested watershed in the north-central Arizona. The model consists of two parts namely, simulation of the temporal and spatial distribution of precipitation using a stochastic, event-based approach and estimation of water yield from the watershed...

The U.S. Geological Survey and City of Atlanta water-quality and water-quantity monitoring network

USGS Publications Warehouse

Horowitz, Arthur J.; Hughes, W. Brian

2006-01-01

Population growth and urbanization affect the landscape, and the quality and quantity of water in nearby rivers and streams, as well as downstream receiving waters (Ellis, 1999). Typical impacts include: (1) disruption of the hydrologic cycle through increases in the extent of impervious surfaces (e.g., roads, roofs, sidewalks) that increase the velocity and volume of surface-water runoff; (2) increased chemical loads to local and downstream receiving waters from industrial sources, nonpoint-source runoff, leaking sewer systems, and sewer overflows; (3) direct or indirect soil contamination from industrial sources, power-generating facilities, and landfills; and (4) reduction in the quantity and quality of aquatic habitats. The City of Atlanta's monitoring network consists of 21 long-term sites. Eleven of these are 'fully instrumented' to provide real-time data on water temperature, pH, specific conductance, dissolved oxygen, turbidity (intended as a surrogate for suspended sediment concentration), water level (gage height, intended as a surrogate for discharge), and precipitation. Data are transmitted hourly and are available on a public Web site (http://ga.water.usgs.gov/). Two sites only measure water level and rainfall as an aid to stormwater monitoring. The eight remaining sites are used to assess water quality.

Simulation of rain floods on Willow Creek, Valley County, Montana

USGS Publications Warehouse

Parrett, Charles

1986-01-01

The Hydrologic Engineering Center-1 rainfall-runoff simulation model was used to assess the effects of a system of reservoirs and waterspreaders in the 550-sq mi Willow Creek Basin in northeastern Montana. For simulation purposes, the basin was subdivided into 100 subbasins containing 84 reservoirs and 14 waterspreaders. Precipitation input to the model was a 24-hr duration, 100-yr frequency synthetic rainstorm developed from National Weather Service data. Infiltration and detention losses were computed using the U.S. Soil Conservation Service Curve Number concept, and the dimensionless unit hydrograph developed by the U.S. Soil Conservation Service was used to compute runoff. Channel and reservoir flow routing was based on the modified Puls storage routing procedure. Waterspreaders were simulated by assuming that each dike in a spreader system functions as a reservoir, with only an emergency spillway discharging directly into the next dike. Waterspreader and reservoir volumes were calculated from surface areas measured on maps. The first simulation run was made with no structures in place, and resulted in a 100-yr frequency peak at the mouth of Willow Creek of 22,700 cu ft/sec. With all structures in place, the 100-yr frequency peak was decreased by 74% to 5,870 cu ft/sec. (USGS)

Effects of off-road vehicle use on the hydrology and landscape of arid environments in central and southern California

USGS Publications Warehouse

Snyder, Charles T.; Frickel, D.G.; Hadley, R.F.; Miller, R.F.

1976-01-01

Two widely separated sites in California used for motorcycle hill-climbing were studied to evaluate the impact on the landscape and hydrology. At Panoche Hills in central California, an area formerly used by motorcycles together with an adjacent unused area were monitored from 1971 to 1975. Observations in both areas included measurements of precipitation, runoff, soil moisture, soil bulk density, plant cover, and erosion surveys. At Dove Spring Canyon in souther California erosion was measured on a site that is currently being used for motorcycle hill-climbing. At the Panoche Hills site, the area used by motorcycles produced about eight times as nuch runoff as the unused area. Similarly, sediment yield from the used areas was 857 cubic meters/sq km, while the quantity of sediment from the unused area was not measurable by standard methods. At the Dove Spring Canyon site, which is still being used for hill-climbing, erosion surveys show that degradation in trails has been as much as 0.3 m in the period 1973-75. Compaction of soils and reduction of permeability appears to be the most serious hydrologic impact of motorcycle use at Panoche Hills. Increased bulk density of soils reduces depth of moisture penetration which deprives plants of moisture needed for growth. (Woodard-USGS)

Century Scale Evaporation Trend: An Observational Study

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Bounoui, Lahouari

2012-01-01

Several climate models with different complexity indicate that under increased CO2 forcing, runoff would increase faster than precipitation overland. However, observations over large U.S watersheds indicate otherwise. This inconsistency between models and observations suggests that there may be important feedbacks between climate and land surface unaccounted for in the present generation of models. We have analyzed century-scale observed annual runoff and precipitation time-series over several United States Geological Survey hydrological units covering large forested regions of the Eastern United States not affected by irrigation. Both time-series exhibit a positive long-term trend; however, in contrast to model results, these historic data records show that the rate of precipitation increases at roughly double the rate of runoff increase. We considered several hydrological processes to close the water budget and found that none of these processes acting alone could account for the total water excess generated by the observed difference between precipitation and runoff. We conclude that evaporation has increased over the period of observations and show that the increasing trend in precipitation minus runoff is correlated to observed increase in vegetation density based on the longest available global satellite record. The increase in vegetation density has important implications for climate; it slows but does not alleviate the projected warming associated with greenhouse gases emission.

Surface Runoff Estimation Using SMOS Observations, Rain-gauge Measurements and Satellite Precipitation Estimations. Comparison with Model Predictions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Garcia Leal, Julio A.; Lopez-Baeza, Ernesto; Khodayar, Samiro; Estrela, Teodoro; Fidalgo, Arancha; Gabaldo, Onofre; Kuligowski, Robert; Herrera, Eddy

Surface runoff is defined as the amount of water that originates from precipitation, does not infiltrates due to soil saturation and therefore circulates over the surface. A good estimation of runoff is useful for the design of draining systems, structures for flood control and soil utilisation. For runoff estimation there exist different methods such as (i) rational method, (ii) isochrone method, (iii) triangular hydrograph, (iv) non-dimensional SCS hydrograph, (v) Temez hydrograph, (vi) kinematic wave model, represented by the dynamics and kinematics equations for a uniforme precipitation regime, and (vii) SCS-CN (Soil Conservation Service Curve Number) model. This work presents a way of estimating precipitation runoff through the SCS-CN model, using SMOS (Soil Moisture and Ocean Salinity) mission soil moisture observations and rain-gauge measurements, as well as satellite precipitation estimations. The area of application is the Jucar River Basin Authority area where one of the objectives is to develop the SCS-CN model in a spatial way. The results were compared to simulations performed with the 7-km COSMO-CLM (COnsortium for Small-scale MOdelling, COSMO model in CLimate Mode) model. The use of SMOS soil moisture as input to the COSMO-CLM model will certainly improve model simulations.

Climate change impacts on hillslope runoff on the northern Great Plains, 1962-2013

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Coles, A. E.; McConkey, B. G.; McDonnell, J. J.

2017-07-01

On the Great Plains of North America, water resources are being threatened by climatic shifts. However, a lack of hillslope-scale climate-runoff observations is limiting our ability to understand these impacts. Here, we present a 52-year (1962-2013) dataset (precipitation, temperature, snow cover, soil water content, and runoff) from three 5 ha hillslopes on the seasonally-frozen northern Great Plains. In this region, snowmelt-runoff drives c. 80% of annual runoff and is potentially vulnerable to warming temperatures and changes in precipitation amount and phase. We assessed trends in these climatological and hydrological variables using time series analysis. We found that spring snowmelt-runoff has decreased (on average by 59%) in response to a reduction in winter snowfall (by 18%), but that rainfall-runoff has shown no significant response to a 51% increase in rainfall or shifts to more multi-day rain events. In summer, unfrozen, deep, high-infiltrability soils act as a 'shock absorber' to rainfall, buffering the long-term runoff response to rainfall. Meanwhile, during winter and spring freshet, frozen ground limits soil infiltrability and results in runoff responses that more closely mirror the snowfall and snowmelt trends. These findings are counter to climate-runoff relationships observed at the catchment scale on the northern Great Plains where land drainage alterations dominate. At the hillslope scale, decreasing snowfall, snowmelt-runoff, and spring soil water content is causing agricultural productivity to be increasingly dependent on growing season precipitation, and will likely accentuate the impact of droughts.

Assessing recent declines in Upper Rio Grande runoff efficiency from a paleoclimate perspective

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lehner, Flavio; Wahl, Eugene R.; Wood, Andrew W.; Blatchford, Douglas B.; Llewellyn, Dagmar

2017-05-01

Recent decades have seen strong trends in hydroclimate over the American Southwest, with major river basins such as the Rio Grande exhibiting intermittent drought and declining runoff efficiencies. The extent to which these observed trends are exceptional has implications for current water management and seasonal streamflow forecasting practices. We present a new reconstruction of runoff ratio for the Upper Rio Grande basin back to 1571 C.E., which provides evidence that the declining trend in runoff ratio from the 1980s to present day is unprecedented in context of the last 445 years. Though runoff ratio is found to vary primarily in proportion to precipitation, the reconstructions suggest a secondary influence of temperature. In years of low precipitation, very low runoff ratios are made 2.5-3 times more likely by high temperatures. This temperature sensitivity appears to have strengthened in recent decades, implying future water management vulnerability should recent warming trends in the region continue.