utility decision analysis: Topics by Science.gov

Sample records for utility decision analysis

Do violations of the axioms of expected utility theory threaten decision analysis?

PubMed

Nease, R F

1996-01-01

Research demonstrates that people violate the independence principle of expected utility theory, raising the question of whether expected utility theory is normative for medical decision making. The author provides three arguments that violations of the independence principle are less problematic than they might first appear. First, the independence principle follows from other more fundamental axioms whose appeal may be more readily apparent than that of the independence principle. Second, the axioms need not be descriptive to be normative, and they need not be attractive to all decision makers for expected utility theory to be useful for some. Finally, by providing a metaphor of decision analysis as a conversation between the actual decision maker and a model decision maker, the author argues that expected utility theory need not be purely normative for decision analysis to be useful. In short, violations of the independence principle do not necessarily represent direct violations of the axioms of expected utility theory; behavioral violations of the axioms of expected utility theory do not necessarily imply that decision analysis is not normative; and full normativeness is not necessary for decision analysis to generate valuable insights.
Three-class ROC analysis--the equal error utility assumption and the optimality of three-class ROC surface using the ideal observer.

PubMed

He, Xin; Frey, Eric C

2006-08-01

Previously, we have developed a decision model for three-class receiver operating characteristic (ROC) analysis based on decision theory. The proposed decision model maximizes the expected decision utility under the assumption that incorrect decisions have equal utilities under the same hypothesis (equal error utility assumption). This assumption reduced the dimensionality of the "general" three-class ROC analysis and provided a practical figure-of-merit to evaluate the three-class task performance. However, it also limits the generality of the resulting model because the equal error utility assumption will not apply for all clinical three-class decision tasks. The goal of this study was to investigate the optimality of the proposed three-class decision model with respect to several other decision criteria. In particular, besides the maximum expected utility (MEU) criterion used in the previous study, we investigated the maximum-correctness (MC) (or minimum-error), maximum likelihood (ML), and Nyman-Pearson (N-P) criteria. We found that by making assumptions for both MEU and N-P criteria, all decision criteria lead to the previously-proposed three-class decision model. As a result, this model maximizes the expected utility under the equal error utility assumption, maximizes the probability of making correct decisions, satisfies the N-P criterion in the sense that it maximizes the sensitivity of one class given the sensitivities of the other two classes, and the resulting ROC surface contains the maximum likelihood decision operating point. While the proposed three-class ROC analysis model is not optimal in the general sense due to the use of the equal error utility assumption, the range of criteria for which it is optimal increases its applicability for evaluating and comparing a range of diagnostic systems.
A preliminary study applying decision analysis to the treatment of caries in primary teeth.

PubMed

Tamošiūnas, Vytautas; Kay, Elizabeth; Craven, Rebecca

2013-01-01

To determine an optimal treatment strategy for carious deciduous teeth. Manchester Dental Hospital. Decision analysis. The likelihoods of each of the sequelae of caries in deciduous teeth were determined from the literature. The utility of the outcomes from non-treatment and treatment was then measured in 100 parents of children with caries, using a visual analogue scale. Decision analysis was performed which weighted the value of each potential outcome by the probability of its occurrence. A decision tree "fold-back" and sensitivity analysis then determined which treatment strategies, under which circumstances, offered the maximum expected utilities. The decision to leave a carious deciduous tooth unrestored attracted a maximum utility of 76.65 and the overall expected utility for the decision "restore" was 73.27 The decision to restore or not restore carious deciduous teeth are therefore of almost equal value. The decision is however highly sensitive to the utility value assigned to the advent of pain by the patient. There is no clear advantage to be gained by restoring deciduous teeth if patients' evaluations of outcomes are taken into account. Avoidance of pain and avoidance of procedures which are viewed as unpleasant by parents should be key determinants of clinical decision making about carious deciduous teeth.
Evaluating Utility in Diagnostic Decision Making.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Harber, Jean R.

1981-01-01

The utility of the procedures special educators apply in making decisions about the identification of handicapped individuals has not been thoroughly studied. The paper examines the utility of diagnostic decision making from the perspective of receiver operating curve analysis. (Author)
Decision analysis with cumulative prospect theory.

PubMed

Bayoumi, A M; Redelmeier, D A

2000-01-01

Individuals sometimes express preferences that do not follow expected utility theory. Cumulative prospect theory adjusts for some phenomena by using decision weights rather than probabilities when analyzing a decision tree. The authors examined how probability transformations from cumulative prospect theory might alter a decision analysis of a prophylactic therapy in AIDS, eliciting utilities from patients with HIV infection (n = 75) and calculating expected outcomes using an established Markov model. They next focused on transformations of three sets of probabilities: 1) the probabilities used in calculating standard-gamble utility scores; 2) the probabilities of being in discrete Markov states; 3) the probabilities of transitioning between Markov states. The same prophylaxis strategy yielded the highest quality-adjusted survival under all transformations. For the average patient, prophylaxis appeared relatively less advantageous when standard-gamble utilities were transformed. Prophylaxis appeared relatively more advantageous when state probabilities were transformed and relatively less advantageous when transition probabilities were transformed. Transforming standard-gamble and transition probabilities simultaneously decreased the gain from prophylaxis by almost half. Sensitivity analysis indicated that even near-linear probability weighting transformations could substantially alter quality-adjusted survival estimates. The magnitude of benefit estimated in a decision-analytic model can change significantly after using cumulative prospect theory. Incorporating cumulative prospect theory into decision analysis can provide a form of sensitivity analysis and may help describe when people deviate from expected utility theory.
Use of Cost-Utility Decision Models in Business Education.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Lewis, Darrell R.

1989-01-01

Explains how cost-utility analysis can be applied to the selection of curriculum and instructional methods. Describes the use of multiattribute utility models of decision making as a tool for more informed judgment in educational administration. (SK)
Decision Making Methods in Space Economics and Systems Engineering

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Shishko, Robert

2006-01-01

This viewgraph presentation reviews various methods of decision making and the impact that they have on space economics and systems engineering. Some of the methods discussed are: Present Value and Internal Rate of Return (IRR); Cost-Benefit Analysis; Real Options; Cost-Effectiveness Analysis; Cost-Utility Analysis; Multi-Attribute Utility Theory (MAUT); and Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP).
Modeling Adversaries in Counterterrorism Decisions Using Prospect Theory.

PubMed

Merrick, Jason R W; Leclerc, Philip

2016-04-01

Counterterrorism decisions have been an intense area of research in recent years. Both decision analysis and game theory have been used to model such decisions, and more recently approaches have been developed that combine the techniques of the two disciplines. However, each of these approaches assumes that the attacker is maximizing its utility. Experimental research shows that human beings do not make decisions by maximizing expected utility without aid, but instead deviate in specific ways such as loss aversion or likelihood insensitivity. In this article, we modify existing methods for counterterrorism decisions. We keep expected utility as the defender's paradigm to seek for the rational decision, but we use prospect theory to solve for the attacker's decision to descriptively model the attacker's loss aversion and likelihood insensitivity. We study the effects of this approach in a critical decision, whether to screen containers entering the United States for radioactive materials. We find that the defender's optimal decision is sensitive to the attacker's levels of loss aversion and likelihood insensitivity, meaning that understanding such descriptive decision effects is important in making such decisions. © 2014 Society for Risk Analysis.
Decision Making Analysis: Critical Factors-Based Methodology

DTIC Science & Technology

2010-04-01

the pitfalls associated with current wargaming methods such as assuming a western view of rational values in decision - making regardless of the cultures...Utilization theory slightly expands the rational decision making model as it states that “actors try to maximize their expected utility by weighing the...items to categorize the decision - making behavior of political leaders which tend to demonstrate either a rational or cognitive leaning. Leaders
Thermal power systems small power systems applications project. Decision analysis for evaluating and ranking small solar thermal power system technologies. Volume 1: A brief introduction to multiattribute decision analysis. [explanation of multiattribute decision analysis methods used in evaluating alternatives for small powered systems

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Feinberg, A.; Miles, R. F., Jr.

1978-01-01

The principal concepts of the Keeney and Raiffa approach to multiattribute decision analysis are described. Topics discussed include the concepts of decision alternatives, outcomes, objectives, attributes and their states, attribute utility functions, and the necessary independence properties for the attribute states to be aggregated into a numerical representation of the preferences of the decision maker for the outcomes and decision alternatives.
Allocating health care: cost-utility analysis, informed democratic decision making, or the veil of ignorance?

PubMed

Goold, S D

1996-01-01

Assuming that rationing health care is unavoidable, and that it requires moral reasoning, how should we allocate limited health care resources? This question is difficult because our pluralistic, liberal society has no consensus on a conception of distributive justice. In this article I focus on an alternative: Who shall decide how to ration health care, and how shall this be done to respect autonomy, pluralism, liberalism, and fairness? I explore three processes for making rationing decisions: cost-utility analysis, informed democratic decision making, and applications of the veil of ignorance. I evaluate these processes as examples of procedural justice, assuming that there is no outcome considered the most just. I use consent as a criterion to judge competing processes so that rationing decisions are, to some extent, self-imposed. I also examine the processes' feasibility in our current health care system. Cost-utility analysis does not meet criteria for actual or presumed consent, even if costs and health-related utility could be measured perfectly. Existing structures of government cannot creditably assimilate the information required for sound rationing decisions, and grassroots efforts are not representative. Applications of the veil of ignorance are more useful for identifying principles relevant to health care rationing than for making concrete rationing decisions. I outline a process of decision making, specifically for health care, that relies on substantive, selected representation, respects pluralism, liberalism, and deliberative democracy, and could be implemented at the community or organizational level.
Decision curve analysis revisited: overall net benefit, relationships to ROC curve analysis, and application to case-control studies.

PubMed

Rousson, Valentin; Zumbrunn, Thomas

2011-06-22

Decision curve analysis has been introduced as a method to evaluate prediction models in terms of their clinical consequences if used for a binary classification of subjects into a group who should and into a group who should not be treated. The key concept for this type of evaluation is the "net benefit", a concept borrowed from utility theory. We recall the foundations of decision curve analysis and discuss some new aspects. First, we stress the formal distinction between the net benefit for the treated and for the untreated and define the concept of the "overall net benefit". Next, we revisit the important distinction between the concept of accuracy, as typically assessed using the Youden index and a receiver operating characteristic (ROC) analysis, and the concept of utility of a prediction model, as assessed using decision curve analysis. Finally, we provide an explicit implementation of decision curve analysis to be applied in the context of case-control studies. We show that the overall net benefit, which combines the net benefit for the treated and the untreated, is a natural alternative to the benefit achieved by a model, being invariant with respect to the coding of the outcome, and conveying a more comprehensive picture of the situation. Further, within the framework of decision curve analysis, we illustrate the important difference between the accuracy and the utility of a model, demonstrating how poor an accurate model may be in terms of its net benefit. Eventually, we expose that the application of decision curve analysis to case-control studies, where an accurate estimate of the true prevalence of a disease cannot be obtained from the data, is achieved with a few modifications to the original calculation procedure. We present several interrelated extensions to decision curve analysis that will both facilitate its interpretation and broaden its potential area of application.
Decision curve analysis revisited: overall net benefit, relationships to ROC curve analysis, and application to case-control studies

PubMed Central

2011-01-01

Background Decision curve analysis has been introduced as a method to evaluate prediction models in terms of their clinical consequences if used for a binary classification of subjects into a group who should and into a group who should not be treated. The key concept for this type of evaluation is the "net benefit", a concept borrowed from utility theory. Methods We recall the foundations of decision curve analysis and discuss some new aspects. First, we stress the formal distinction between the net benefit for the treated and for the untreated and define the concept of the "overall net benefit". Next, we revisit the important distinction between the concept of accuracy, as typically assessed using the Youden index and a receiver operating characteristic (ROC) analysis, and the concept of utility of a prediction model, as assessed using decision curve analysis. Finally, we provide an explicit implementation of decision curve analysis to be applied in the context of case-control studies. Results We show that the overall net benefit, which combines the net benefit for the treated and the untreated, is a natural alternative to the benefit achieved by a model, being invariant with respect to the coding of the outcome, and conveying a more comprehensive picture of the situation. Further, within the framework of decision curve analysis, we illustrate the important difference between the accuracy and the utility of a model, demonstrating how poor an accurate model may be in terms of its net benefit. Eventually, we expose that the application of decision curve analysis to case-control studies, where an accurate estimate of the true prevalence of a disease cannot be obtained from the data, is achieved with a few modifications to the original calculation procedure. Conclusions We present several interrelated extensions to decision curve analysis that will both facilitate its interpretation and broaden its potential area of application. PMID:21696604
A Practical Guide to Conducting a Systematic Review and Meta-analysis of Health State Utility Values.

PubMed

Petrou, Stavros; Kwon, Joseph; Madan, Jason

2018-05-10

Economic analysts are increasingly likely to rely on systematic reviews and meta-analyses of health state utility values to inform the parameter inputs of decision-analytic modelling-based economic evaluations. Beyond the context of economic evaluation, evidence from systematic reviews and meta-analyses of health state utility values can be used to inform broader health policy decisions. This paper provides practical guidance on how to conduct a systematic review and meta-analysis of health state utility values. The paper outlines a number of stages in conducting a systematic review, including identifying the appropriate evidence, study selection, data extraction and presentation, and quality and relevance assessment. The paper outlines three broad approaches that can be used to synthesise multiple estimates of health utilities for a given health state or condition, namely fixed-effect meta-analysis, random-effects meta-analysis and mixed-effects meta-regression. Each approach is illustrated by a synthesis of utility values for a hypothetical decision problem, and software code is provided. The paper highlights a number of methodological issues pertinent to the conduct of meta-analysis or meta-regression. These include the importance of limiting synthesis to 'comparable' utility estimates, for example those derived using common utility measurement approaches and sources of valuation; the effects of reliance on limited or poorly reported published data from primary utility assessment studies; the use of aggregate outcomes within analyses; approaches to generating measures of uncertainty; handling of median utility values; challenges surrounding the disentanglement of utility estimates collected serially within the context of prospective observational studies or prospective randomised trials; challenges surrounding the disentanglement of intervention effects; and approaches to measuring model validity. Areas of methodological debate and avenues for future research are highlighted.
Applicability of risk-based management and the need for risk-based economic decision analysis at hazardous waste contaminated sites.

PubMed

Khadam, Ibrahim; Kaluarachchi, Jagath J

2003-07-01

Decision analysis in subsurface contamination management is generally carried out through a traditional engineering economic viewpoint. However, new advances in human health risk assessment, namely, the probabilistic risk assessment, and the growing awareness of the importance of soft data in the decision-making process, require decision analysis methodologies that are capable of accommodating non-technical and politically biased qualitative information. In this work, we discuss the major limitations of the currently practiced decision analysis framework, which evolves around the definition of risk and cost of risk, and its poor ability to communicate risk-related information. A demonstration using a numerical example was conducted to provide insight on these limitations of the current decision analysis framework. The results from this simple ground water contamination and remediation scenario were identical to those obtained from studies carried out on existing Superfund sites, which suggests serious flaws in the current risk management framework. In order to provide a perspective on how these limitations may be avoided in future formulation of the management framework, more matured and well-accepted approaches to decision analysis in dam safety and the utility industry, where public health and public investment are of great concern, are presented and their applicability in subsurface remediation management is discussed. Finally, in light of the success of the application of risk-based decision analysis in dam safety and the utility industry, potential options for decision analysis in subsurface contamination management are discussed.
Use of multiattribute utility theory for formulary management in a health system.

PubMed

Chung, Seonyoung; Kim, Sooyon; Kim, Jeongmee; Sohn, Kieho

2010-01-15

The application, utility, and flexibility of the multiattribute utility theory (MAUT) when used as a formulary decision methodology in a Korean medical center were evaluated. A drug analysis model using MAUT consisting of 10 steps was designed for two drug classes of dihydropyridine calcium channel blockers (CCBs) and angiotensin II receptor blockers (ARBs). These two drug classes contain the most diverse agents among cardiovascular drugs on Samsung Medical Center's drug formulary. The attributes identified for inclusion in the drug analysis model were effectiveness, safety, patient convenience, and cost, with relative weights of 50%, 30%, 10%, and 10%, respectively. The factors were incorporated into the model to quantify the contribution of each attribute. For each factor, a utility scale of 0-100 was established, and the total utility score for each alternative was calculated. An attempt was made to make the model adaptable to changing health care and regulatory circumstances. The analysis revealed amlodipine besylate to be an alternative agent, with the highest total utility score among the dihydropyridine CCBs, while barnidipine hydrochloride had the lowest score. For ARBs, losartan potassium had the greatest total utility score, while olmesartan medoxomil had the lowest. A drug analysis model based on the MAUT was successfully developed and used in making formulary decisions for dihydropyridine CCBs and ARBs for a Korean health system. The model incorporates sufficient utility and flexibility of a drug's attributes and can be used as an alternative decision-making tool for formulary management in health systems.
Decision Performance Using Spatial Decision Support Systems: A Geospatial Reasoning Ability Perspective

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Erskine, Michael A.

2013-01-01

As many consumer and business decision makers are utilizing Spatial Decision Support Systems (SDSS), a thorough understanding of how such decisions are made is crucial for the information systems domain. This dissertation presents six chapters encompassing a comprehensive analysis of the impact of geospatial reasoning ability on…
Overrepresentation of extreme events in decision making reflects rational use of cognitive resources.

PubMed

Lieder, Falk; Griffiths, Thomas L; Hsu, Ming

2018-01-01

People's decisions and judgments are disproportionately swayed by improbable but extreme eventualities, such as terrorism, that come to mind easily. This article explores whether such availability biases can be reconciled with rational information processing by taking into account the fact that decision makers value their time and have limited cognitive resources. Our analysis suggests that to make optimal use of their finite time decision makers should overrepresent the most important potential consequences relative to less important, put potentially more probable, outcomes. To evaluate this account, we derive and test a model we call utility-weighted sampling. Utility-weighted sampling estimates the expected utility of potential actions by simulating their outcomes. Critically, outcomes with more extreme utilities have a higher probability of being simulated. We demonstrate that this model can explain not only people's availability bias in judging the frequency of extreme events but also a wide range of cognitive biases in decisions from experience, decisions from description, and memory recall. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2018 APA, all rights reserved).
Performance Feedback Utility in a Small Organization: Effects on Organizational Outcomes and Managerial Decision Processes.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Florin-Thuma, Beth C.; Boudreau, John W.

1987-01-01

Investigated the frequent but previously untested assertion that utility analysis can improve communication and decision making about human resource management programs by examining a performance feedback intervention in a small fast-food store. Results suggest substantial payoffs from performance feedback, though the store's owner-managers had…
Interpretation of diagnostic data: 6. How to do it with more complex maths.

PubMed

1983-11-15

We have now shown you how to use decision analysis in making those rare, tough diagnostic decisions that are not soluble through other, easier routes. In summary, to "use more complex maths" the following steps will be useful: Create a decision tree or map of all the pertinent courses of action and their consequences. Assign probabilities to the branches of each chance node. Assign utilities to each of the potential outcomes shown on the decision tree. Combine the probabilities and utilities for each node on the decision tree. Pick the decision that leads to the highest expected utility. Test your decision for its sensitivity to clinically sensible changes in probabilities and utilities. That concludes this series of clinical epidemiology rounds. You've come a long way from "doing it with pictures" and are now able to extract most of the diagnostic information that can be provided from signs, symptoms and laboratory investigations. We would appreciate learning whether you have found this series useful and how we can do a better job of presenting these and other elements of "the science of the art of medicine".

[Value-based medicine in ophthalmology].

PubMed

Hirneiss, C; Neubauer, A S; Tribus, C; Kampik, A

2006-06-01

Value-based medicine (VBM) unifies costs and patient-perceived value (improvement in quality of life, length of life, or both) of an intervention. Value-based ophthalmology is of increasing importance for decisions in eye care. The methods of VBM are explained and definitions for a specific terminology in this field are given. The cost-utility analysis as part of health care economic analyses is explained. VBM exceeds evidence-based medicine by incorporating parameters of cost and benefits from an ophthalmological intervention. The benefit of the intervention is defined as an increase or maintenance of visual quality of life and can be determined by utility analysis. The time trade-off method is valid and reliable for utility analysis. The resources expended for the value gained in VBM are measured with cost-utility analysis in terms of cost per quality-adjusted life years gained (euros/QALY). Numerous cost-utility analyses of different ophthalmological interventions have been published. The fundamental instrument of VBM is cost-utility analysis. The results in cost per QALY allow estimation of cost effectiveness of an ophthalmological intervention. Using the time trade-off method for utility analysis allows the comparison of ophthalmological cost-utility analyses with those of other medical interventions. VBM is important for individual medical decision making and for general health care.
A Decision Making Analysis of Persuasive Argumentation and the Choice Shift Effect

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Vinokur, Amiram; And Others

1975-01-01

A subjective expected utility (SEU) decision-making analysis was performed on the content of arguments generated by subjects privately or during group discussion in response to choice-dilemmas shown to shift toward risk and caution. (Editor)
Present-value analysis: A systems approach to public decisionmaking for cost effectiveness

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Herbert, T. T.

1971-01-01

Decision makers within Governmental agencies and Congress must evaluate competing (and sometimes conflicting) proposals which seek funding and implementation. Present value analysis can be an effective decision making tool by enabling the formal evaluation of the effects of competing proposals on efficient national resource utilization. A project's costs are not only its direct disbursements, but its social costs as well. How much does it cost to have those funds diverted from their use and economic benefit by the private sector to the public project? Comparisons of competing projects' social costs allow decision makers to expand their decision bases by quantifying the projects' impacts upon the economy and the efficient utilization of the country's limited national resources. A conceptual model is established for the choosing of the appropriate discount rate to be used in evaluation decisions through the technique.
User-centered design to improve clinical decision support in primary care.

PubMed

Brunner, Julian; Chuang, Emmeline; Goldzweig, Caroline; Cain, Cindy L; Sugar, Catherine; Yano, Elizabeth M

2017-08-01

A growing literature has demonstrated the ability of user-centered design to make clinical decision support systems more effective and easier to use. However, studies of user-centered design have rarely examined more than a handful of sites at a time, and have frequently neglected the implementation climate and organizational resources that influence clinical decision support. The inclusion of such factors was identified by a systematic review as "the most important improvement that can be made in health IT evaluations." (1) Identify the prevalence of four user-centered design practices at United States Veterans Affairs (VA) primary care clinics and assess the perceived utility of clinical decision support at those clinics; (2) Evaluate the association between those user-centered design practices and the perceived utility of clinical decision support. We analyzed clinic-level survey data collected in 2006-2007 from 170 VA primary care clinics. We examined four user-centered design practices: 1) pilot testing, 2) provider satisfaction assessment, 3) formal usability assessment, and 4) analysis of impact on performance improvement. We used a regression model to evaluate the association between user-centered design practices and the perceived utility of clinical decision support, while accounting for other important factors at those clinics, including implementation climate, available resources, and structural characteristics. We also examined associations separately at community-based clinics and at hospital-based clinics. User-centered design practices for clinical decision support varied across clinics: 74% conducted pilot testing, 62% conducted provider satisfaction assessment, 36% conducted a formal usability assessment, and 79% conducted an analysis of impact on performance improvement. Overall perceived utility of clinical decision support was high, with a mean rating of 4.17 (±.67) out of 5 on a composite measure. "Analysis of impact on performance improvement" was the only user-centered design practice significantly associated with perceived utility of clinical decision support, b=.47 (p<.001). This association was present in hospital-based clinics, b=.34 (p<.05), but was stronger at community-based clinics, b=.61 (p<.001). Our findings are highly supportive of the practice of analyzing the impact of clinical decision support on performance metrics. This was the most common user-centered design practice in our study, and was the practice associated with higher perceived utility of clinical decision support. This practice may be particularly helpful at community-based clinics, which are typically less connected to VA medical center resources. Published by Elsevier B.V.
Toward an Extension of Decision Analysis to Competitive Situations.

DTIC Science & Technology

1985-12-01

order to deal with competition may ease the use of non- von Neumann-Morgenstern utility. This leads to our secondary goal of questioning expected...While von WInterfeldt [1980] attempted a 5 (more detailed analysis using three separate decision trees, one for each side In the dispute, he felt that...rationality generally used In game theory derives from the same roots as the calculated rationality of Decision Analysis, von Neumann and
Determining the Best Treatment for Coronal Angular Deformity of the Knee Joint in Growing Children: A Decision Analysis

PubMed Central

Sung, Ki Hyuk; Chung, Chin Youb; Lee, Kyoung Min; Lee, Seung Yeol; Choi, In Ho; Cho, Tae-Joon; Yoo, Won Joon; Park, Moon Seok

2014-01-01

This study aimed to determine the best treatment modality for coronal angular deformity of the knee joint in growing children using decision analysis. A decision tree was created to evaluate 3 treatment modalities for coronal angular deformity in growing children: temporary hemiepiphysiodesis using staples, percutaneous screws, or a tension band plate. A decision analysis model was constructed containing the final outcome score, probability of metal failure, and incomplete correction of deformity. The final outcome was defined as health-related quality of life and was used as a utility in the decision tree. The probabilities associated with each case were obtained by literature review, and health-related quality of life was evaluated by a questionnaire completed by 25 pediatric orthopedic experts. Our decision analysis model favored temporary hemiepiphysiodesis using a tension band plate over temporary hemiepiphysiodesis using percutaneous screws or stapling, with utilities of 0.969, 0.957, and 0.962, respectively. One-way sensitivity analysis showed that hemiepiphysiodesis using a tension band plate was better than temporary hemiepiphysiodesis using percutaneous screws, when the overall complication rate of hemiepiphysiodesis using a tension band plate was lower than 15.7%. Two-way sensitivity analysis showed that hemiepiphysiodesis using a tension band plate was more beneficial than temporary hemiepiphysiodesis using percutaneous screws. PMID:25276801
Genetic Factors of Individual Differences in Decision Making in Economic Behavior: A Japanese Twin Study using the Allais Problem.

PubMed

Shikishima, Chizuru; Hiraishi, Kai; Yamagata, Shinji; Ando, Juko; Okada, Mitsuhiro

2015-01-01

Why does decision making differ among individuals? People sometimes make seemingly inconsistent decisions with lower expected (monetary) utility even when objective information of probabilities and reward are provided. It is noteworthy, however, that a certain proportion of people do not provide anomalous responses, choosing the alternatives with higher expected utility, thus appearing to be more "rational." We investigated the genetic and environmental influences on these types of individual differences in decision making using a classical Allais problem task. Participants were 1,199 Japanese adult twins aged 20-47. Univariate genetic analysis revealed that approximately a third of the Allais problem response variance was explained by genetic factors and the rest by environmental factors unique to individuals and measurement error. The environmental factor shared between families did not contribute to the variance. Subsequent multivariate genetic analysis clarified that decision making using the expected utility theory was associated with general intelligence and that the association was largely mediated by the same genetic factor. We approach the mechanism underlying two types of "rational" decision making from the perspective of genetic correlations with cognitive abilities.
Using Technical Performance Measures

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Garrett, Christopher J.; Levack, Daniel J. H.; Rhodes, Russel E.

2011-01-01

All programs have requirements. For these requirements to be met, there must be a means of measurement. A Technical Performance Measure (TPM) is defined to produce a measured quantity that can be compared to the requirement. In practice, the TPM is often expressed as a maximum or minimum and a goal. Example TPMs for a rocket program are: vacuum or sea level specific impulse (lsp), weight, reliability (often expressed as a failure rate), schedule, operability (turn-around time), design and development cost, production cost, and operating cost. Program status is evaluated by comparing the TPMs against specified values of the requirements. During the program many design decisions are made and most of them affect some or all of the TPMs. Often, the same design decision changes some TPMs favorably while affecting other TPMs unfavorably. The problem then becomes how to compare the effects of a design decision on different TPMs. How much failure rate is one second of specific impulse worth? How many days of schedule is one pound of weight worth? In other words, how to compare dissimilar quantities in order to trade and manage the TPMs to meet all requirements. One method that has been used successfully and has a mathematical basis is Utility Analysis. Utility Analysis enables quantitative comparison among dissimilar attributes. It uses a mathematical model that maps decision maker preferences over the tradeable range of each attribute. It is capable of modeling both independent and dependent attributes. Utility Analysis is well supported in the literature on Decision Theory. It has been used at Pratt & Whitney Rocketdyne for internal programs and for contracted work such as the J-2X rocket engine program. This paper describes the construction of TPMs and describes Utility Analysis. It then discusses the use of TPMs in design trades and to manage margin during a program using Utility Analysis.
Trade-off decisions in distribution utility management

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Slavickas, Rimas Anthony

As a result of the "unbundling" of traditional monopolistic electricity generation and transmission enterprises into a free-market economy, power distribution utilities are faced with very difficult decisions pertaining to electricity supply options and quality of service to the customers. The management of distribution utilities has become increasingly complex, versatile, and dynamic to the extent that conventional, non-automated management tools are almost useless and obsolete. This thesis presents a novel and unified approach to managing electricity supply options and quality of service to customers. The technique formulates the problem in terms of variables, parameters, and constraints. An advanced Mixed Integer Programming (MIP) optimization formulation is developed together with novel, logical, decision-making algorithms. These tools enable the utility management to optimize various cost components and assess their time-trend impacts, taking into account the intangible issues such as customer perception, customer expectation, social pressures, and public response to service deterioration. The above concepts are further generalized and a Logical Proportion Analysis (LPA) methodology and associated software have been developed. Solutions using numbers are replaced with solutions using words (character strings) which more closely emulate the human decision-making process and advance the art of decision-making in the power utility environment. Using practical distribution utility operation data and customer surveys, the developments outlined in this thesis are successfully applied to several important utility management problems. These involve the evaluation of alternative electricity supply options, the impact of rate structures on utility business, and the decision of whether to continue to purchase from a main grid or generate locally (partially or totally) by building Non-Utility Generation (NUG).
Method Development for Clinical Comprehensive Evaluation of Pediatric Drugs Based on Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis: Application to Inhaled Corticosteroids for Children with Asthma.

PubMed

Yu, Yuncui; Jia, Lulu; Meng, Yao; Hu, Lihua; Liu, Yiwei; Nie, Xiaolu; Zhang, Meng; Zhang, Xuan; Han, Sheng; Peng, Xiaoxia; Wang, Xiaoling

2018-04-01

Establishing a comprehensive clinical evaluation system is critical in enacting national drug policy and promoting rational drug use. In China, the 'Clinical Comprehensive Evaluation System for Pediatric Drugs' (CCES-P) project, which aims to compare drugs based on clinical efficacy and cost effectiveness to help decision makers, was recently proposed; therefore, a systematic and objective method is required to guide the process. An evidence-based multi-criteria decision analysis model that involved an analytic hierarchy process (AHP) was developed, consisting of nine steps: (1) select the drugs to be reviewed; (2) establish the evaluation criterion system; (3) determine the criterion weight based on the AHP; (4) construct the evidence body for each drug under evaluation; (5) select comparative measures and calculate the original utility score; (6) place a common utility scale and calculate the standardized utility score; (7) calculate the comprehensive utility score; (8) rank the drugs; and (9) perform a sensitivity analysis. The model was applied to the evaluation of three different inhaled corticosteroids (ICSs) used for asthma management in children (a total of 16 drugs with different dosage forms and strengths or different manufacturers). By applying the drug analysis model, the 16 ICSs under review were successfully scored and evaluated. Budesonide suspension for inhalation (drug ID number: 7) ranked the highest, with comprehensive utility score of 80.23, followed by fluticasone propionate inhaled aerosol (drug ID number: 16), with a score of 79.59, and budesonide inhalation powder (drug ID number: 6), with a score of 78.98. In the sensitivity analysis, the ranking of the top five and lowest five drugs remains unchanged, suggesting this model is generally robust. An evidence-based drug evaluation model based on AHP was successfully developed. The model incorporates sufficient utility and flexibility for aiding the decision-making process, and can be a useful tool for the CCES-P.
Medical Problem-Solving: A Critique of the Literature.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

McGuire, Christine H.

1985-01-01

Prescriptive, decision-analysis of medical problem-solving has been based on decision theory that involves calculation and manipulation of complex probability and utility values to arrive at optimal decisions that will maximize patient benefits. The studies offer a methodology for improving clinical judgment. (Author/MLW)
An elicitation of utility for quality of life under prospect theory.

PubMed

Attema, Arthur E; Brouwer, Werner B F; l'Haridon, Olivier; Pinto, Jose Luis

2016-07-01

This paper performs several tests of decision analysis applied to the health domain. First, we conduct a test of the normative expected utility theory. Second, we investigate the possibility to elicit the more general prospect theory. We observe risk aversion for gains and losses and violations of expected utility. These results imply that mechanisms governing decisions in the health domain are similar to those in the monetary domain. However, we also report one important deviation: utility is universally concave for the health outcomes used in this study, in contrast to the commonly found S-shaped utility for monetary outcomes, with concave utility for gains and convex utility for losses. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
Risk Analysis: Its Application to Argumentation and Decision-Making.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Follert, Vincent

1981-01-01

Notes that utility theory has enjoyed renewed interest among debate critics and other decision makers. Some of the problems with its application are identified and guidelines for debaters are suggested. (PD)
Generalized Cartographic and Simultaneous Representation of Utility Networks for Decision-Support Systems and Crisis Management in Urban Environments

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Becker, T.; König, G.

2015-10-01

Cartographic visualizations of crises are used to create a Common Operational Picture (COP) and enforce Situational Awareness by presenting relevant information to the involved actors. As nearly all crises affect geospatial entities, geo-data representations have to support location-specific analysis throughout the decision-making process. Meaningful cartographic presentation is needed for coordinating the activities of crisis manager in a highly dynamic situation, since operators' attention span and their spatial memories are limiting factors during the perception and interpretation process. Situational Awareness of operators in conjunction with a COP are key aspects in decision-making process and essential for making well thought-out and appropriate decisions. Considering utility networks as one of the most complex and particularly frequent required systems in urban environment, meaningful cartographic presentation of multiple utility networks with respect to disaster management do not exist. Therefore, an optimized visualization of utility infrastructure for emergency response procedures is proposed. The article will describe a conceptual approach on how to simplify, aggregate, and visualize multiple utility networks and their components to meet the requirements of the decision-making process and to support Situational Awareness.
Integrating Climate and Risk-Informed Science to Support Critical Decisions

ScienceCinema

None

2018-01-16

The PNNL Environmental Health and Remediation Sector stewards several decision support capabilities to integrate climate- and risk-informed science to support critical decisions. Utilizing our expertise in risk and decision analysis, integrated Earth systems modeling, and remote sensing and geoinformatics, PNNL is influencing the way science informs high level decisions at national, regional and local scales to protect and preserve our most critical assets.
Integrating Climate and Risk-Informed Science to Support Critical Decisions

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

None

2016-07-27

The PNNL Environmental Health and Remediation Sector stewards several decision support capabilities to integrate climate- and risk-informed science to support critical decisions. Utilizing our expertise in risk and decision analysis, integrated Earth systems modeling, and remote sensing and geoinformatics, PNNL is influencing the way science informs high level decisions at national, regional and local scales to protect and preserve our most critical assets.
Expected utility of voluntary vaccination in the middle of an emergent Bluetongue virus serotype 8 epidemic: a decision analysis parameterized for Dutch circumstances.

PubMed

Sok, J; Hogeveen, H; Elbers, A R W; Velthuis, A G J; Oude Lansink, A G J M

2014-08-01

In order to put a halt to the Bluetongue virus serotype 8 (BTV-8) epidemic in 2008, the European Commission promoted vaccination at a transnational level as a new measure to combat BTV-8. Most European member states opted for a mandatory vaccination campaign, whereas the Netherlands, amongst others, opted for a voluntary campaign. For the latter to be effective, the farmer's willingness to vaccinate should be high enough to reach satisfactory vaccination coverage to stop the spread of the disease. This study looked at a farmer's expected utility of vaccination, which is expected to have a positive impact on the willingness to vaccinate. Decision analysis was used to structure the vaccination decision problem into decisions, events and payoffs, and to define the relationships among these elements. Two scenarios were formulated to distinguish farmers' mindsets, based on differences in dairy heifer management. For each of the scenarios, a decision tree was run for two years to study vaccination behaviour over time. The analysis was done based on the expected utility criterion. This allows to account for the effect of a farmer's risk preference on the vaccination decision. Probabilities were estimated by experts, payoffs were based on an earlier published study. According to the results of the simulation, the farmer decided initially to vaccinate against BTV-8 as the net expected utility of vaccination was positive. Re-vaccination was uncertain due to less expected costs of a continued outbreak. A risk averse farmer in this respect is more likely to re-vaccinate. When heifers were retained for export on the farm, the net expected utility of vaccination was found to be generally larger and thus was re-vaccination more likely to happen. For future animal health programmes that rely on a voluntary approach, results show that the provision of financial incentives can be adjusted to the farmers' willingness to vaccinate over time. Important in this respect are the decision moment and the characteristics of the disease. Farmers' perceptions of the disease risk and about the efficacy of available control options cannot be neglected. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
The choice of primary energy source including PV installation for providing electric energy to a public utility building - a case study

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Radomski, Bartosz; Ćwiek, Barbara; Mróz, Tomasz M.

2017-11-01

The paper presents multicriteria decision aid analysis of the choice of PV installation providing electric energy to a public utility building. From the energy management point of view electricity obtained by solar radiation has become crucial renewable energy source. Application of PV installations may occur a profitable solution from energy, economic and ecologic point of view for both existing and newly erected buildings. Featured variants of PV installations have been assessed by multicriteria analysis based on ANP (Analytic Network Process) method. Technical, economical, energy and environmental criteria have been identified as main decision criteria. Defined set of decision criteria has an open character and can be modified in the dialog process between the decision-maker and the expert - in the present case, an expert in planning of development of energy supply systems. The proposed approach has been used to evaluate three variants of PV installation acceptable for existing educational building located in Poznań, Poland - the building of Faculty of Chemical Technology, Poznań University of Technology. Multi-criteria analysis based on ANP method and the calculation software Super Decisions has proven to be an effective tool for energy planning, leading to the indication of the recommended variant of PV installation in existing and newly erected public buildings. Achieved results show prospects and possibilities of rational renewable energy usage as complex solution to public utility buildings.
Evolutionary Perspective on Collective Decision Making

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Farrell, Dene; Sayama, Hiroki; Dionne, Shelley D.; Yammarino, Francis J.; Wilson, David Sloan

Team decision making dynamics are investigated from a novel perspective by shifting agency from decision makers to representations of potential solutions. We provide a new way to navigate social dynamics of collective decision making by interpreting decision makers as constituents of an evolutionary environment of an ecology of evolving solutions. We demonstrate distinct patterns of evolution with respect to three forms of variation: (1) Results with random variations in utility functions of individuals indicate that groups demonstrating minimal internal variation produce higher true utility values of group solutions and display better convergence; (2) analysis of variations in behavioral patterns within a group shows that a proper balance between selective and creative evolutionary forces is crucial to producing adaptive solutions; and (3) biased variations of the utility functions diminish the range of variation for potential solution utility, leaving only the differential of convergence performance static. We generally find that group cohesion (low random variation within a group) and composition (appropriate variation of behavioral patterns within a group) are necessary for a successful navigation of the solution space, but performance in both cases is susceptible to group level biases.
Development of an evidence-based decision pathway for vestibular schwannoma treatment options.

PubMed

Linkov, Faina; Valappil, Benita; McAfee, Jacob; Goughnour, Sharon L; Hildrew, Douglas M; McCall, Andrew A; Linkov, Igor; Hirsch, Barry; Snyderman, Carl

To integrate multiple sources of clinical information with patient feedback to build evidence-based decision support model to facilitate treatment selection for patients suffering from vestibular schwannomas (VS). This was a mixed methods study utilizing focus group and survey methodology to solicit feedback on factors important for making treatment decisions among patients. Two 90-minute focus groups were conducted by an experienced facilitator. Previously diagnosed VS patients were recruited by clinical investigators at the University of Pittsburgh Medical Center (UPMC). Classical content analysis was used for focus group data analysis. Providers were recruited from practices within the UPMC system and were surveyed using Delphi methods. This information can provide a basis for multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA) framework to develop a treatment decision support system for patients with VS. Eight themes were derived from these data (focus group + surveys): doctor/health care system, side effects, effectiveness of treatment, anxiety, mortality, family/other people, quality of life, and post-operative symptoms. These data, as well as feedback from physicians were utilized in building a multi-criteria decision model. The study illustrated steps involved in the development of a decision support model that integrates evidence-based data and patient values to select treatment alternatives. Studies focusing on the actual development of the decision support technology for this group of patients are needed, as decisions are highly multifactorial. Such tools have the potential to improve decision making for complex medical problems with alternate treatment pathways. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Health versus money. Value judgments in the perspective of decision analysis.

PubMed

Thompson, M S

1983-01-01

An important, but largely uninvestigated, value trade-off balances marginal nonhealth consumption against marginal medical care. Benefit-cost analysts have traditionally, if not fully satisfactorily, dealt with this issue by valuing health gains by their effects on productivity. Cost-effectiveness analysts compare monetary and health effects and leave their relative valuations to decision makers. A decision-analytic model using the satisfaction or utility gained from nonhealth consumption and the level of health enables one to calculate willingness to pay--a theoretically superior way of assigning monetary values to effects for benefit-cost analysis-and to determine minimally acceptable cost-effectiveness ratios. Examples show how a decision-analytic model of utility can differentiate medical actions so essential that failure to take them would be considered negligent from actions so expensive as to be unjustifiable, and can help to determine optimal legal arrangements for compensation for medical malpractice.
Fuzzy rationality and parameter elicitation in decision analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nikolova, Natalia D.; Tenekedjiev, Kiril I.

2010-07-01

It is widely recognised by decision analysts that real decision-makers always make estimates in an interval form. An overview of techniques to find an optimal alternative among such with imprecise and interval probabilities is presented. Scalarisation methods are outlined as most appropriate. A proper continuation of such techniques is fuzzy rational (FR) decision analysis. A detailed representation of the elicitation process influenced by fuzzy rationality is given. The interval character of probabilities leads to the introduction of ribbon functions, whose general form and special cases are compared with the p-boxes. As demonstrated, approximation of utilities in FR decision analysis does not depend on the probabilities, but the approximation of probabilities is dependent on preferences.
Analyses of S-Box in Image Encryption Applications Based on Fuzzy Decision Making Criterion

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rehman, Inayatur; Shah, Tariq; Hussain, Iqtadar

2014-06-01

In this manuscript, we put forward a standard based on fuzzy decision making criterion to examine the current substitution boxes and study their strengths and weaknesses in order to decide their appropriateness in image encryption applications. The proposed standard utilizes the results of correlation analysis, entropy analysis, contrast analysis, homogeneity analysis, energy analysis, and mean of absolute deviation analysis. These analyses are applied to well-known substitution boxes. The outcome of these analyses are additional observed and a fuzzy soft set decision making criterion is used to decide the suitability of an S-box to image encryption applications.
Research evidence utilization in policy development by child welfare administrators.

PubMed

Jack, Susan; Dobbins, Maureen; Tonmyr, Lil; Dudding, Peter; Brooks, Sandy; Kennedy, Betty

2010-01-01

An exploratory qualitative study was conducted to explore how child welfare administrators use research evidence in decision-making. Content analysis revealed that a cultural shift toward evidence-based practice (EBP) is occurring in Canadian child welfare organizations and multiple types of evidence inform policy decisions. Barriers to using evidence include individual, organizational, and environmental factors. Facilitating factors include the development of internal champions and organizational cultures that value EBP. Integrating research into practice and policy decisions requires a multifaceted approach of creating organizational cultures that support research utilization and supporting senior bureaucrats to use research evidence in policy development.
ATR evaluation through the synthesis of multiple performance measures

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bassham, Christopher B.; Klimack, William K.; Bauer, Kenneth W., Jr.

2002-07-01

This research demonstrates the application of decision analysis (DA) techniques to decisions made within Automatic Target Recognition (ATR) technology development. This work is accomplished to improve the means by which ATR technologies are evaluated. The first step in this research was to create a flexible decision analysis framework that could be applied to several decisions across different ATR programs evaluated by the Comprehensive ATR Scientific Evaluation (COMPASE) Center of the Air Force Research Laboratory (AFRL). For the purposes of this research, a single COMPASE Center representative provided the value, utility, and preference functions for the DA framework. The DA framework employs performance measures collected during ATR classification system (CS) testing to calculate value and utility scores. The authors gathered data from the Moving and Stationary Target Acquisition and Recognition (MSTAR) program to demonstrate how the decision framework could be used to evaluate three different ATR CSs. A decision-maker may use the resultant scores to gain insight into any of the decisions that occur throughout the lifecycle of ATR technologies. Additionally, a means of evaluating ATR CS self-assessment ability is presented. This represents a new criterion that emerged from this study, and no present evaluation metric is known.
Multiattribute evaluation in formulary decision making as applied to calcium-channel blockers.

PubMed

Schumacher, G E

1991-02-01

The use of multiattribute utility theory (MAUT) to make a formulary decision involving calcium-channel blockers (CCBs) is described. The MAUT method is a procedure for identifying, characterizing, and comparing the many variables that may affect a decision. Although applications in pharmacy have been infrequent, MAUT should be particularly appealing to formulary committees. The steps of the MAUT method are (1) determine the viewpoint of the decision makers, (2) identify the decision alternatives, (3) identify the attributes to be evaluated, (4) identify the factors to be used in evaluating the attributes, (5) establish a utility scale for scoring each factor, (6) transform the values for each factor to its utility scale, (7) determine weights for each attribute and factor, (8) calculate the total utility score for each decision alternative, (9) determine which decision alternative has the greatest total score, and (10) perform a sensitivity analysis. The viewpoint of a formulary committee in a health maintenance organization was simulated to develop a model for using the MAUT method to compare CCBs for single-agent therapy of chronic stable angina in ambulatory patients for one year. The attributes chosen were effectiveness, safety, patient acceptance, and cost and weighted 36%, 29%, 21%, and 14%, respectively, as contributions to the evaluation. The rank order of the decision alternatives was (1) generic verapamil, (2) brand-name verapamil, (3) diltiazem, (4) nicardipine, and (5) nifedipine. The MAUT method provides a standardized yet flexible format for comparing and selecting among formulary alternatives.
Cooperative Drought Adaptation: Integrating Infrastructure Development, Conservation, and Water Transfers into Adaptive Policy Pathways

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zeff, H. B.; Characklis, G. W.; Reed, P. M.; Herman, J. D.

2015-12-01

Water supply policies that integrate portfolios of short-term management decisions with long-term infrastructure development enable utilities to adapt to a range of future scenarios. An effective mix of short-term management actions can augment existing infrastructure, potentially forestalling new development. Likewise, coordinated expansion of infrastructure such as regional interconnections and shared treatment capacity can increase the effectiveness of some management actions like water transfers. Highly adaptable decision pathways that mix long-term infrastructure options and short-term management actions require decision triggers capable of incorporating the impact of these time-evolving decisions on growing water supply needs. Here, we adapt risk-based triggers to sequence a set of potential infrastructure options in combination with utility-specific conservation actions and inter-utility water transfers. Individual infrastructure pathways can be augmented with conservation or water transfers to reduce the cost of meeting utility objectives, but they can also include cooperatively developed, shared infrastructure that expands regional capacity to transfer water. This analysis explores the role of cooperation among four water utilities in the 'Research Triangle' region of North Carolina by formulating three distinct categories of adaptive policy pathways: independent action (utility-specific conservation and supply infrastructure only), weak cooperation (utility-specific conservation and infrastructure development with regional transfers), and strong cooperation (utility specific conservation and jointly developed of regional infrastructure that supports transfers). Results suggest that strong cooperation aids the utilities in meeting their individual objections at substantially lower costs and with fewer irreversible infrastructure options.
Advanced Productivity Analysis Methods for Air Traffic Control Operations

DTIC Science & Technology

1976-12-01

Routine Work ............................... 37 4.2.2. Surveillance Work .......................... 40 4.2.3. Conflict Prcessing Work ................... 41...crossing and overtake conflicts) includes potential- conflict recognition, assessment, and resolution decision making and A/N voice communications...makers to utilize £ .quantitative and dynamic analysis as a tool for decision - making. 1.1.3 Types of Simulation Models Although there are many ways to
Variables Influencing the Return on Investment in Management Training Programs: A Utility Analysis of 10 Swiss Cases

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Chochard, Yves; Davoine, Eric

2011-01-01

In this article, we present the utility analysis approach as an alternative and promising approach to measure the return on investment in managerial training programs. This approach, linking economic value with competencies developed by trainees, enables researchers and decision-makers to compare the return on investment from different programs in…
A regret theory approach to decision curve analysis: a novel method for eliciting decision makers' preferences and decision-making.

PubMed

Tsalatsanis, Athanasios; Hozo, Iztok; Vickers, Andrew; Djulbegovic, Benjamin

2010-09-16

Decision curve analysis (DCA) has been proposed as an alternative method for evaluation of diagnostic tests, prediction models, and molecular markers. However, DCA is based on expected utility theory, which has been routinely violated by decision makers. Decision-making is governed by intuition (system 1), and analytical, deliberative process (system 2), thus, rational decision-making should reflect both formal principles of rationality and intuition about good decisions. We use the cognitive emotion of regret to serve as a link between systems 1 and 2 and to reformulate DCA. First, we analysed a classic decision tree describing three decision alternatives: treat, do not treat, and treat or no treat based on a predictive model. We then computed the expected regret for each of these alternatives as the difference between the utility of the action taken and the utility of the action that, in retrospect, should have been taken. For any pair of strategies, we measure the difference in net expected regret. Finally, we employ the concept of acceptable regret to identify the circumstances under which a potentially wrong strategy is tolerable to a decision-maker. We developed a novel dual visual analog scale to describe the relationship between regret associated with "omissions" (e.g. failure to treat) vs. "commissions" (e.g. treating unnecessary) and decision maker's preferences as expressed in terms of threshold probability. We then proved that the Net Expected Regret Difference, first presented in this paper, is equivalent to net benefits as described in the original DCA. Based on the concept of acceptable regret we identified the circumstances under which a decision maker tolerates a potentially wrong decision and expressed it in terms of probability of disease. We present a novel method for eliciting decision maker's preferences and an alternative derivation of DCA based on regret theory. Our approach may be intuitively more appealing to a decision-maker, particularly in those clinical situations when the best management option is the one associated with the least amount of regret (e.g. diagnosis and treatment of advanced cancer, etc).
A regret theory approach to decision curve analysis: A novel method for eliciting decision makers' preferences and decision-making

PubMed Central

2010-01-01

Background Decision curve analysis (DCA) has been proposed as an alternative method for evaluation of diagnostic tests, prediction models, and molecular markers. However, DCA is based on expected utility theory, which has been routinely violated by decision makers. Decision-making is governed by intuition (system 1), and analytical, deliberative process (system 2), thus, rational decision-making should reflect both formal principles of rationality and intuition about good decisions. We use the cognitive emotion of regret to serve as a link between systems 1 and 2 and to reformulate DCA. Methods First, we analysed a classic decision tree describing three decision alternatives: treat, do not treat, and treat or no treat based on a predictive model. We then computed the expected regret for each of these alternatives as the difference between the utility of the action taken and the utility of the action that, in retrospect, should have been taken. For any pair of strategies, we measure the difference in net expected regret. Finally, we employ the concept of acceptable regret to identify the circumstances under which a potentially wrong strategy is tolerable to a decision-maker. Results We developed a novel dual visual analog scale to describe the relationship between regret associated with "omissions" (e.g. failure to treat) vs. "commissions" (e.g. treating unnecessary) and decision maker's preferences as expressed in terms of threshold probability. We then proved that the Net Expected Regret Difference, first presented in this paper, is equivalent to net benefits as described in the original DCA. Based on the concept of acceptable regret we identified the circumstances under which a decision maker tolerates a potentially wrong decision and expressed it in terms of probability of disease. Conclusions We present a novel method for eliciting decision maker's preferences and an alternative derivation of DCA based on regret theory. Our approach may be intuitively more appealing to a decision-maker, particularly in those clinical situations when the best management option is the one associated with the least amount of regret (e.g. diagnosis and treatment of advanced cancer, etc). PMID:20846413
Strategic rehabilitation planning of piped water networks using multi-criteria decision analysis.

PubMed

Scholten, Lisa; Scheidegger, Andreas; Reichert, Peter; Maurer, Max; Mauer, Max; Lienert, Judit

2014-02-01

To overcome the difficulties of strategic asset management of water distribution networks, a pipe failure and a rehabilitation model are combined to predict the long-term performance of rehabilitation strategies. Bayesian parameter estimation is performed to calibrate the failure and replacement model based on a prior distribution inferred from three large water utilities in Switzerland. Multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA) and scenario planning build the framework for evaluating 18 strategic rehabilitation alternatives under future uncertainty. Outcomes for three fundamental objectives (low costs, high reliability, and high intergenerational equity) are assessed. Exploitation of stochastic dominance concepts helps to identify twelve non-dominated alternatives and local sensitivity analysis of stakeholder preferences is used to rank them under four scenarios. Strategies with annual replacement of 1.5-2% of the network perform reasonably well under all scenarios. In contrast, the commonly used reactive replacement is not recommendable unless cost is the only relevant objective. Exemplified for a small Swiss water utility, this approach can readily be adapted to support strategic asset management for any utility size and based on objectives and preferences that matter to the respective decision makers. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
Selecting essential information for biosurveillance--a multi-criteria decision analysis.

PubMed

Generous, Nicholas; Margevicius, Kristen J; Taylor-McCabe, Kirsten J; Brown, Mac; Daniel, W Brent; Castro, Lauren; Hengartner, Andrea; Deshpande, Alina

2014-01-01

The National Strategy for Biosurveillance defines biosurveillance as "the process of gathering, integrating, interpreting, and communicating essential information related to all-hazards threats or disease activity affecting human, animal, or plant health to achieve early detection and warning, contribute to overall situational awareness of the health aspects of an incident, and to enable better decision-making at all levels." However, the strategy does not specify how "essential information" is to be identified and integrated into the current biosurveillance enterprise, or what the metrics qualify information as being "essential". The question of data stream identification and selection requires a structured methodology that can systematically evaluate the tradeoffs between the many criteria that need to be taken in account. Multi-Attribute Utility Theory, a type of multi-criteria decision analysis, can provide a well-defined, structured approach that can offer solutions to this problem. While the use of Multi-Attribute Utility Theoryas a practical method to apply formal scientific decision theoretical approaches to complex, multi-criteria problems has been demonstrated in a variety of fields, this method has never been applied to decision support in biosurveillance.We have developed a formalized decision support analytic framework that can facilitate identification of "essential information" for use in biosurveillance systems or processes and we offer this framework to the global BSV community as a tool for optimizing the BSV enterprise. To demonstrate utility, we applied the framework to the problem of evaluating data streams for use in an integrated global infectious disease surveillance system.
Predictive factors of synchronous colorectal peritoneal metastases: Development of a nomogram and study of its utilities using decision curve analysis.

PubMed

Mo, Shaobo; Dai, Weixing; Xiang, Wenqiang; Li, Qingguo; Wang, Renjie; Cai, Guoxiang

2018-05-03

The objective of this study was to summarize the clinicopathological and molecular features of synchronous colorectal peritoneal metastases (CPM). We then combined clinical and pathological variables associated with synchronous CPM into a nomogram and confirmed its utilities using decision curve analysis. Synchronous metastatic colorectal cancer (mCRC) patients who received primary tumor resection and underwent KRAS, NRAS, and BRAF gene mutation detection at our center from January 2014 to September 2015 were included in this retrospective study. An analysis was performed to investigate the clinicopathological and molecular features for independent risk factors of synchronous CPM and to subsequently develop a nomogram for synchronous CPM based on multivariate logistic regression. Model performance was quantified in terms of calibration and discrimination. We studied the utility of the nomogram using decision curve analysis. In total, 226 patients were diagnosed with synchronous mCRC, of whom 50 patients (22.1%) presented with CPM. After uni- and multivariate analysis, a nomogram was built based on tumor site, histological type, age, and T4 status. The model had good discrimination with an area under the curve (AUC) at 0.777 (95% CI 0.703-0.850) and adequate calibration. By decision curve analysis, the model was shown to be relevant between thresholds of 0.10 and 0.66. Synchronous CPM is more likely to happen to patients with age ≤60, right-sided primary lesions, signet ring cell cancer or T4 stage. This is the first nomogram to predict synchronous CPM. To ensure generalizability, this model needs to be externally validated. Copyright © 2018 IJS Publishing Group Ltd. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
Schizophrenia: multi-attribute utility theory approach to selection of atypical antipsychotics.

PubMed

Bettinger, Tawny L; Shuler, Garyn; Jones, Donnamaria R; Wilson, James P

2007-02-01

Current guidelines/algorithms recommend atypical antipsychotics as first-line agents for the treatment of schizophrenia. Because there are extensive healthcare costs associated with the treatment of schizophrenia, many institutions and health systems are faced with making restrictive formulary decisions regarding the use of atypical antipsychotics. Often, medication acquisition costs are the driving force behind formulary decisions, while other treatment factors are not considered. To apply a multi-attribute utility theory (MAUT) analysis to aid in the selection of a preferred agent among the atypical antipsychotics for the treatment of schizophrenia. Five atypical antipsychotics (risperidone, olanzapine, quetiapine, ziprasidone, aripiprazole) were selected as the alternative agents to be included in the MAUT analysis. The attributes identified for inclusion in the analysis were efficacy, adverse effects, cost, and adherence, with relative weights of 35%, 35%, 20%, and 10%, respectively. For each agent, attribute scores were calculated, weighted, and then summed to generate a total utility score. The agent with the highest total utility score was considered the preferred agent. Aripiprazole, with a total utility score of 75.8, was the alternative agent with the highest total utility score in this model. This was followed by ziprasidone, risperidone, and quetiapine, with total utility scores of 71.8, 69.0, and 65.9, respectively. Olanzapine received the lowest total utility score. A sensitivity analysis was performed and failed to displace aripiprazole as the agent with the highest total utility score. This model suggests that aripiprazole should be considered a preferred agent for the treatment of schizophrenia unless found to be otherwise inappropriate.
Decision analysis defining optimal management of clinical stage 1 high-risk nonseminomatous germ cell testicular cancer with lymphovascular invasion.

PubMed

Avulova, Svetlana; Allen, Clayton; Morgans, Alicia; Moses, Kelvin A

2018-05-10

Risk of recurrent disease for men with clinical stage 1 high-risk nonseminomatous germ cell testicular cancer (CS1 NSGCT) with lymphovascular invasion (LVI) after orchiectomy is 50% and current treatment options (surveillance [S], retroperitoneal lymph node dissection [RPLND], or 1 cycle of BEP [BEP ×1]) are associated with a 99% disease specific survival, therefore practice patterns vary. We performed a decision analysis using updated data of long-term complications for men with CS1 NSGCT with LVI to quantify and assess relative treatment values. Decision analysis included previously defined utilities (via standard gamble) for posttreatment states of living from 0 (death from disease) to 1 (alive in perfect health) and updated morbidity probabilities. We quantified the values of S, RPLND, and BEP ×1 via the rollback method. Sensitivity analyses including a range of orchiectomy cure rates and utility values were performed. Estimated probabilities favoring treatment with RPLND (0.97) or BEP ×1 (0.97) were equivalent and superior to surveillance (0.88). Sensitivity analysis of orchiectomy cure rates (50%-100%) failed to find a cure rate that favored S over BEP ×1 or RPLND. Varying utility values for cure after S from 0.92 (previously defined utility) to 1 (perfect health), failed to find a viable utility state favoring S over BEP ×1 or RPLND. An orchiectomy cure rate of ≥82% would be required for S to equal treatment of either type. We demonstrate that for surveillance to be superior to treatment with BEP ×1 or RPLND, the orchiectomy cure rate must be at least 82%, which is not expected in a patient population with high-risk CS1 NSGCT. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.
A decision-making tool for incorporating sustainability measures into pavement design : research project capsule.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2016-10-01

The objective of the proposed study is to conceive and develop a decision-making tool : for evaluating sustainability of pavement designs based on a cradle-to-grave analysis. : This tool will utilize EPDs to enhance the reliability of the assessment ...
Decompositions of Multiattribute Utility Functions Based on Convex Dependence.

DTIC Science & Technology

1982-03-01

School of Business, 200E, BEB Decision Research University of Texas at Austin 1201 Oak Street Austin, Texas 78712 Eugene, Oregon 97401 Professor Norman ...Stephen M. Robinson Dept. of Industrial Engineering Dr. Richard D. Smallwood Univ. of Wisconsin, Madison Applied Decision Analysis, Inc. 1513 University
Expected Utility Illustrated: A Graphical Analysis of Gambles with More than Two Possible Outcomes

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Chen, Frederick H.

2010-01-01

The author presents a simple geometric method to graphically illustrate the expected utility from a gamble with more than two possible outcomes. This geometric result gives economics students a simple visual aid for studying expected utility theory and enables them to analyze a richer set of decision problems under uncertainty compared to what…
A Common Foundation of Information and Analytical Capability for AFSPC Decision Making

DTIC Science & Technology

2005-06-23

System Strategic Master Plan MAPs/MSP CRRAAF TASK FORCE CONOPS MUA Task Weights Engagement Analysis ASIIS Optimization ACEIT COST Analysis...Engangement Architecture Analysis Architecture MUA AFSPC POM S&T Planning Military Utility Analysis ACEIT COST Analysis Joint Capab Integ Develop System

Value of information analysis in healthcare: a review of principles and applications.

PubMed

Tuffaha, Haitham W; Gordon, Louisa G; Scuffham, Paul A

2014-06-01

Economic evaluations are increasingly utilized to inform decisions in healthcare; however, decisions remain uncertain when they are not based on adequate evidence. Value of information (VOI) analysis has been proposed as a systematic approach to measure decision uncertainty and assess whether there is sufficient evidence to support new technologies. The objective of this paper is to review the principles and applications of VOI analysis in healthcare. Relevant databases were systematically searched to identify VOI articles. The findings from the selected articles were summarized and narratively presented. Various VOI methods have been developed and applied to inform decision-making, optimally designing research studies and setting research priorities. However, the application of this approach in healthcare remains limited due to technical and policy challenges. There is a need to create more awareness about VOI analysis, simplify its current methods, and align them with the needs of decision-making organizations.
The temporal derivative of expected utility: a neural mechanism for dynamic decision-making.

PubMed

Zhang, Xian; Hirsch, Joy

2013-01-15

Real world tasks involving moving targets, such as driving a vehicle, are performed based on continuous decisions thought to depend upon the temporal derivative of the expected utility (∂V/∂t), where the expected utility (V) is the effective value of a future reward. However, the neural mechanisms that underlie dynamic decision-making are not well understood. This study investigates human neural correlates of both V and ∂V/∂t using fMRI and a novel experimental paradigm based on a pursuit-evasion game optimized to isolate components of dynamic decision processes. Our behavioral data show that players of the pursuit-evasion game adopt an exponential discounting function, supporting the expected utility theory. The continuous functions of V and ∂V/∂t were derived from the behavioral data and applied as regressors in fMRI analysis, enabling temporal resolution that exceeded the sampling rate of image acquisition, hyper-temporal resolution, by taking advantage of numerous trials that provide rich and independent manipulation of those variables. V and ∂V/∂t were each associated with distinct neural activity. Specifically, ∂V/∂t was associated with anterior and posterior cingulate cortices, superior parietal lobule, and ventral pallidum, whereas V was primarily associated with supplementary motor, pre and post central gyri, cerebellum, and thalamus. The association between the ∂V/∂t and brain regions previously related to decision-making is consistent with the primary role of the temporal derivative of expected utility in dynamic decision-making. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.
The Temporal Derivative of Expected Utility: A Neural Mechanism for Dynamic Decision-making

PubMed Central

Zhang, Xian; Hirsch, Joy

2012-01-01

Real world tasks involving moving targets, such as driving a vehicle, are performed based on continuous decisions thought to depend upon the temporal derivative of the expected utility (∂V/∂t), where the expected utility (V) is the effective value of a future reward. However, those neural mechanisms that underlie dynamic decision-making are not well understood. This study investigates human neural correlates of both V and ∂V/∂t using fMRI and a novel experimental paradigm based on a pursuit-evasion game optimized to isolate components of dynamic decision processes. Our behavioral data show that players of the pursuit-evasion game adopt an exponential discounting function, supporting the expected utility theory. The continuous functions of V and ∂V/∂t were derived from the behavioral data and applied as regressors in fMRI analysis, enabling temporal resolution that exceeded the sampling rate of image acquisition, hyper-temporal resolution, by taking advantage of numerous trials that provide rich and independent manipulation of those variables. V and ∂V/∂t were each associated with distinct neural activity. Specifically, ∂V/∂t was associated with anterior and posterior cingulate cortices, superior parietal lobule, and ventral pallidum, whereas V was primarily associated with supplementary motor, pre and post central gyri, cerebellum, and thalamus. The association between the ∂V/∂t and brain regions previously related to decision-making is consistent with the primary role of the temporal derivative of expected utility in dynamic decision-making. PMID:22963852
Escalation research: Providing new frontiers for applying behavior analysis to organizational behavior

PubMed Central

Goltz, Sonia M.

2000-01-01

Decision fiascoes such as escalation of commitment, the tendency of decision makers to “throw good money after bad,” can have serious consequences for organizations and are therefore of great interest in applied research. This paper discusses the use of behavior analysis in organizational behavior research on escalation. Among the most significant aspects of behavior-analytic research on escalation is that it has indicated that both the patterns of outcomes that decision makers have experienced for past decisions and the patterns of responses that they make are critical for understanding escalation. This research has also stimulated the refinement of methods by researchers to better assess decision making and the role reinforcement plays in it. Finally, behavior-analytic escalation research has not only indicated the utility of reinforcement principles for predicting more complex human behavior but has also suggested some additional areas for future exploration of decision making using behavior analysis. PMID:22478347
Multisensor satellite data for water quality analysis and water pollution risk assessment: decision making under deep uncertainty with fuzzy algorithm in framework of multimodel approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kostyuchenko, Yuriy V.; Sztoyka, Yulia; Kopachevsky, Ivan; Artemenko, Igor; Yuschenko, Maxim

2017-10-01

Multi-model approach for remote sensing data processing and interpretation is described. The problem of satellite data utilization in multi-modeling approach for socio-ecological risks assessment is formally defined. Observation, measurement and modeling data utilization method in the framework of multi-model approach is described. Methodology and models of risk assessment in framework of decision support approach are defined and described. Method of water quality assessment using satellite observation data is described. Method is based on analysis of spectral reflectance of aquifers. Spectral signatures of freshwater bodies and offshores are analyzed. Correlations between spectral reflectance, pollutions and selected water quality parameters are analyzed and quantified. Data of MODIS, MISR, AIRS and Landsat sensors received in 2002-2014 have been utilized verified by in-field spectrometry and lab measurements. Fuzzy logic based approach for decision support in field of water quality degradation risk is discussed. Decision on water quality category is making based on fuzzy algorithm using limited set of uncertain parameters. Data from satellite observations, field measurements and modeling is utilizing in the framework of the approach proposed. It is shown that this algorithm allows estimate water quality degradation rate and pollution risks. Problems of construction of spatial and temporal distribution of calculated parameters, as well as a problem of data regularization are discussed. Using proposed approach, maps of surface water pollution risk from point and diffuse sources are calculated and discussed.
External validation and clinical utility of a prediction model for 6-month mortality in patients undergoing hemodialysis for end-stage kidney disease.

PubMed

Forzley, Brian; Er, Lee; Chiu, Helen Hl; Djurdjev, Ognjenka; Martinusen, Dan; Carson, Rachel C; Hargrove, Gaylene; Levin, Adeera; Karim, Mohamud

2018-02-01

End-stage kidney disease is associated with poor prognosis. Health care professionals must be prepared to address end-of-life issues and identify those at high risk for dying. A 6-month mortality prediction model for patients on dialysis derived in the United States is used but has not been externally validated. We aimed to assess the external validity and clinical utility in an independent cohort in Canada. We examined the performance of the published 6-month mortality prediction model, using discrimination, calibration, and decision curve analyses. Data were derived from a cohort of 374 prevalent dialysis patients in two regions of British Columbia, Canada, which included serum albumin, age, peripheral vascular disease, dementia, and answers to the "the surprise question" ("Would I be surprised if this patient died within the next year?"). The observed mortality in the validation cohort was 11.5% at 6 months. The prediction model had reasonable discrimination (c-stat = 0.70) but poor calibration (calibration-in-the-large = -0.53 (95% confidence interval: -0.88, -0.18); calibration slope = 0.57 (95% confidence interval: 0.31, 0.83)) in our data. Decision curve analysis showed the model only has added value in guiding clinical decision in a small range of threshold probabilities: 8%-20%. Despite reasonable discrimination, the prediction model has poor calibration in this external study cohort; thus, it may have limited clinical utility in settings outside of where it was derived. Decision curve analysis clarifies limitations in clinical utility not apparent by receiver operating characteristic curve analysis. This study highlights the importance of external validation of prediction models prior to routine use in clinical practice.
Decision Utility, Incentive Salience, and Cue-Triggered "Wanting"

PubMed

Berridge, Kent C; Aldridge, J Wayne

2009-01-01

This chapter examines brain mechanisms of reward utility operating at particular decision moments in life-moments such as when one encounters an image, sound, scent, or other cue associated in the past with a particular reward or perhaps just when one vividly imagines that cue. Such a cue can often trigger a sudden motivational urge to pursue its reward and sometimes a decision to do so. Drawing on a utility taxonomy that distinguishes among subtypes of reward utility-predicted utility, decision utility, experienced utility, and remembered utility-it is shown how cue-triggered cravings, such as an addict's surrender to relapse, can hang on special transformations by brain mesolimbic systems of one utility subtype, namely, decision utility. The chapter focuses on a particular form of decision utility called incentive salience, a type of "wanting" for rewards that is amplified by brain mesolimbic systems. Sudden peaks of intensity of incentive salience, caused by neurobiological mechanisms, can elevate the decision utility of a particular reward at the moment its cue occurs. An understanding of what happens at such moments leads to a better understanding of the mechanisms at work in decision making in general.
High content screening of ToxCast compounds using Vala Sciences’ complex cell culturing systems (SOT)

EPA Science Inventory

US EPA’s ToxCast research program evaluates bioactivity for thousands of chemicals utilizing high-throughput screening assays to inform chemical testing decisions. Vala Sciences provides high content, multiplexed assays that utilize quantitative cell-based digital image analysis....
Selecting Essential Information for Biosurveillance—A Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis

PubMed Central

Generous, Nicholas; Margevicius, Kristen J.; Taylor-McCabe, Kirsten J.; Brown, Mac; Daniel, W. Brent; Castro, Lauren; Hengartner, Andrea; Deshpande, Alina

2014-01-01

The National Strategy for Biosurveillancedefines biosurveillance as “the process of gathering, integrating, interpreting, and communicating essential information related to all-hazards threats or disease activity affecting human, animal, or plant health to achieve early detection and warning, contribute to overall situational awareness of the health aspects of an incident, and to enable better decision-making at all levels.” However, the strategy does not specify how “essential information” is to be identified and integrated into the current biosurveillance enterprise, or what the metrics qualify information as being “essential”. Thequestion of data stream identification and selection requires a structured methodology that can systematically evaluate the tradeoffs between the many criteria that need to be taken in account. Multi-Attribute Utility Theory, a type of multi-criteria decision analysis, can provide a well-defined, structured approach that can offer solutions to this problem. While the use of Multi-Attribute Utility Theoryas a practical method to apply formal scientific decision theoretical approaches to complex, multi-criteria problems has been demonstrated in a variety of fields, this method has never been applied to decision support in biosurveillance.We have developed a formalized decision support analytic framework that can facilitate identification of “essential information” for use in biosurveillance systems or processes and we offer this framework to the global BSV community as a tool for optimizing the BSV enterprise. To demonstrate utility, we applied the framework to the problem of evaluating data streams for use in an integrated global infectious disease surveillance system. PMID:24489748
Decision theory and the evaluation of risks and benefits of clinical trials.

PubMed

Bernabe, Rosemarie D C; van Thiel, Ghislaine J M W; Raaijmakers, Jan A M; van Delden, Johannes J M

2012-12-01

Research ethics committees (RECs) are tasked to assess the risks and the benefits of a clinical trial. In previous studies, it was shown that RECs find this task difficult, if not impossible, to do. The current approaches to benefit-risk assessment (i.e. Component Analysis and the Net Risk Test) confound the various risk-benefit tasks, and as such, make balancing impossible. In this article, we show that decision theory, specifically through the expected utility theory and multiattribute utility theory, enable for an explicit and ethically weighted risk-benefit evaluation. This makes a balanced ethical justification possible, and thus a more rationally defensible decision making. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
A catastrophe model for the prospect-utility theory question.

PubMed

Oliva, Terence A; McDade, Sean R

2008-07-01

Anomalies have played a big part in the analysis of decision making under risk. Both expected utility and prospect theories were born out of anomalies exhibited by actual decision making behavior. Since the same individual can use both expected utility and prospect approaches at different times, it seems there should be a means of uniting the two. This paper turns to nonlinear dynamical systems (NDS), specifically a catastrophe model, to help suggest an 'out of the box' line of solution toward integration. We use a cusp model to create a value surface whose control dimensions are involvement and gains versus losses. By including 'involvement' as a variable the importance of the individual's psychological state is included, and it provides a rationale for how decision makers' changes from expected utility to prospect might occur. Additionally, it provides a possible explanation for what appears to be even more irrational decisions that individuals make when highly emotionally involved. We estimate the catastrophe model using a sample of 997 gamblers who attended a casino and compare it to the linear model using regression. Hence, we have actual data from individuals making real bets, under real conditions.
Shift level analysis of cable yarder availability, utilization, and productive time

Treesearch

James R. Sherar; Chris B. LeDoux

1989-01-01

Decision makers, loggers, managers, and planners need to understand and have methods for estimating utilization and productive time of cable logging systems. In making an accurate prediction of how much area and volume a machine will log per unit time and the associated cable yarding costs, a reliable estimate of the availability, utilization, and productive time of...
Evidence Molded by Contact with Staff Culture and Patient Milieu: An Analysis of the Social Process of Knowledge Utilization in Nursing Homes

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Øye, Christine; Mekki, Tone Elin; Skaar, Randi; Dahl, Hellen; Forland, Oddvar; Jacobsen, Frode F.

2015-01-01

Knowledge utilization is politically "hot" because it informs decisions on improving the quality of care in nursing homes (NHs). The difficulties encountered in implementing evidence-based knowledge into practice may be explained by contextual factors. Contextual factors are crucial to understanding the process of knowledge utilization;…
Evaluation of ilmenite serpentine concrete and ordinary concrete as nuclear reactor shielding

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Abulfaraj, Waleed H.; Kamal, Salah M.

1994-07-01

The present study involves adapting a formal decision methodology to the selection of alternative nuclear reactor concretes shielding. Multiattribute utility theory is selected to accommodate decision makers' preferences. Multiattribute utility theory (MAU) is here employed to evaluate two appropriate nuclear reactor shielding concretes in terms of effectiveness to determine the optimal choice in order to meet the radiation protection regulations. These concretes are Ordinary concrete (O.C.) and Ilmenite Serpentile concrete (I.S.C.). These are normal weight concrete and heavy heat resistive concrete, respectively. The effectiveness objective of the nuclear reactor shielding is defined and structured into definite attributes and subattributes to evaluate the best alternative. Factors affecting the decision are dose received by reactor's workers, the material properties as well as cost of concrete shield. A computer program is employed to assist in performing utility analysis. Based upon data, the result shows the superiority of Ordinary concrete over Ilmenite Serpentine concrete.
An index-based robust decision making framework for watershed management in a changing climate.

PubMed

Kim, Yeonjoo; Chung, Eun-Sung

2014-03-01

This study developed an index-based robust decision making framework for watershed management dealing with water quantity and quality issues in a changing climate. It consists of two parts of management alternative development and analysis. The first part for alternative development consists of six steps: 1) to understand the watershed components and process using HSPF model, 2) to identify the spatial vulnerability ranking using two indices: potential streamflow depletion (PSD) and potential water quality deterioration (PWQD), 3) to quantify the residents' preferences on water management demands and calculate the watershed evaluation index which is the weighted combinations of PSD and PWQD, 4) to set the quantitative targets for water quantity and quality, 5) to develop a list of feasible alternatives and 6) to eliminate the unacceptable alternatives. The second part for alternative analysis has three steps: 7) to analyze all selected alternatives with a hydrologic simulation model considering various climate change scenarios, 8) to quantify the alternative evaluation index including social and hydrologic criteria with utilizing multi-criteria decision analysis methods and 9) to prioritize all options based on a minimax regret strategy for robust decision. This framework considers the uncertainty inherent in climate models and climate change scenarios with utilizing the minimax regret strategy, a decision making strategy under deep uncertainty and thus this procedure derives the robust prioritization based on the multiple utilities of alternatives from various scenarios. In this study, the proposed procedure was applied to the Korean urban watershed, which has suffered from streamflow depletion and water quality deterioration. Our application shows that the framework provides a useful watershed management tool for incorporating quantitative and qualitative information into the evaluation of various policies with regard to water resource planning and management. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
Treatment strategies for pelvic organ prolapse: a cost-effectiveness analysis.

PubMed

Hullfish, Kathie L; Trowbridge, Elisa R; Stukenborg, George J

2011-05-01

To compare the relative cost effectiveness of treatment decision alternatives for post-hysterectomy pelvic organ prolapse (POP). A Markov decision analysis model was used to assess and compare the relative cost effectiveness of expectant management, use of a pessary, and surgery for obtaining months of quality-adjusted life over 1 year. Sensitivity analysis was conducted to determine whether the results depended on specific estimates of patient utilities for pessary use, probabilities for complications and other events, and estimated costs. Only two treatment alternatives were found to be efficient choices: initial pessary use and vaginal reconstructive surgery (VRS). Pessary use (including patients that eventually transitioned to surgery) achieved 10.4 quality-adjusted months, at a cost of $10,000 per patient, while VRS obtained 11.4 quality-adjusted months, at $15,000 per patient. Sensitivity analysis demonstrated that these baseline results depended on several key estimates in the model. This analysis indicates that pessary use and VRS are the most cost-effective treatment alternatives for treating post-hysterectomy vaginal prolapse. Additional research is needed to standardize POP outcomes and complications, so that healthcare providers can best utilize cost information in balancing the risks and benefits of their treatment decisions.
Decision Utility, Incentive Salience, and Cue-Triggered “Wanting”

PubMed Central

Berridge, Kent C.; Aldridge, J. Wayne

2010-01-01

This chapter examines brain mechanisms of reward utility operating at particular decision moments in life—moments such as when one encounters an image, sound, scent, or other cue associated in the past with a particular reward or perhaps just when one vividly imagines that cue. Such a cue can often trigger a sudden motivational urge to pursue its reward and sometimes a decision to do so. Drawing on a utility taxonomy that distinguishes among subtypes of reward utility—predicted utility, decision utility, experienced utility, and remembered utility—it is shown how cue-triggered cravings, such as an addict’s surrender to relapse, can hang on special transformations by brain mesolimbic systems of one utility subtype, namely, decision utility. The chapter focuses on a particular form of decision utility called incentive salience, a type of “wanting” for rewards that is amplified by brain mesolimbic systems. Sudden peaks of intensity of incentive salience, caused by neurobiological mechanisms, can elevate the decision utility of a particular reward at the moment its cue occurs. An understanding of what happens at such moments leads to a better understanding of the mechanisms at work in decision making in general. PMID:25309963
A decision modeling for phasor measurement unit location selection in smart grid systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lee, Seung Yup

As a key technology for enhancing the smart grid system, Phasor Measurement Unit (PMU) provides synchronized phasor measurements of voltages and currents of wide-area electric power grid. With various benefits from its application, one of the critical issues in utilizing PMUs is the optimal site selection of units. The main aim of this research is to develop a decision support system, which can be used in resource allocation task for smart grid system analysis. As an effort to suggest a robust decision model and standardize the decision modeling process, a harmonized modeling framework, which considers operational circumstances of component, is proposed in connection with a deterministic approach utilizing integer programming. With the results obtained from the optimal PMU placement problem, the advantages and potential that the harmonized modeling process possesses are assessed and discussed.
Health utility of patients with Crohn's disease and ulcerative colitis: a systematic review and meta-analysis.

PubMed

Malinowski, Krzysztof Piotr; Kawalec, Paweł

2016-08-01

The aim of this systematic review was to collect and summarize the current data on the utilities of patients with Crohn's disease (CD) and ulcerative colitis (UC). A meta-analysis of the obtained utilities was performed using a random-effects model and meta-regression by the disease type and severity. A bootstrap analysis was performed as it does not require assumption on distribution of the data. The highest utility among patients with CD and UC was observed when the diseases were in remission. The meta-regression analysis showed that both disease severity and an instrument/method/questionnaire used to obtain utilities were significant predictors of utility. Utility was the lowest for severe disease and the highest for disease in remission, the association was more notable in patients with CD compared with UC. Expert commentary: The issue of patients' utility is important for healthcare decision makers but it has not been fully investigated and requires further study.
Question Number Two: How Many Factors?

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Goodwyn, Fara

2012-01-01

Exploratory factor analysis involves five key decisions. The second decision, how many factors to retain, is the focus of the current paper. Extracting too many or too few factors often leads to devastating effects on study results. The advantages and disadvantages of the most effective and/or most utilized strategies to determine the number of…

An Analysis of the EPA Report on Pipeline Renewal Decision Making Tools and Approaches

EPA Science Inventory

Few DSS are commercially available for technology selection as most utilities make decisions based on in-house and consultant expertise (Matthews et al., 2011). This review presents some of the models proposed over the past 15 years for selecting technologies in the U.S. and wor...
Risks associated with antiretroviral treatment for human immunodeficiency virus (HIV): qualitative analysis of social media data and health state utility valuation.

PubMed

Matza, Louis S; Chung, Karen C; Kim, Katherine J; Paulus, Trena M; Davies, Evan W; Stewart, Katie D; McComsey, Grace A; Fordyce, Marshall W

2017-07-01

Despite benefits of antiretroviral therapies (ART), people with HIV infection have increased risk of cardiovascular disease, kidney disease, and low bone mineral density. Some ARTs increase risk of these events. The purpose of this study was to examine patients' perspectives of these risks and estimate health state utilities associated with these risks for use in cost-utility models. Qualitative thematic analysis was conducted to examine messages posted to the POZ/AIDSmeds Internet community forums, focusing on bone, kidney, and cardiovascular side effects and risks of HIV/AIDS medications. Then, health state vignettes were drafted based on this qualitative analysis, literature review, and clinician interviews. The health states (representing HIV, plus treatment-related risks) were valued in time trade-off interviews with general population participants in the UK. Qualitative analysis of the Internet forums documented patient concerns about ART risks, as well as treatment decisions made because of these risks. A total of 208 participants completed utility interviews (51.4% female; mean age 44.6 years). The mean utility of the HIV health state (virologically suppressed, treated with ART) was 0.86. Adding a description of risk resulted in statistically significant disutility (i.e., utility decreases): renal risk (disutility = -0.02), bone risk (-0.03), and myocardial infarction risk (-0.05). Patient concerns and treatment decisions were documented via qualitative analysis of Internet forum discussions, and the impact of these concerns was quantified in terms of health state utilities. The resulting disutilities may be useful for differentiating among ARTs in economic modeling of treatment for patients with HIV.
The Role of Values in Preservice Teachers' Decision to Teach

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Torsney, Benjamin M.; Ponnock, Annette R.; Lombardi, Doug

2017-01-01

The current study explored the values preservice teachers use as motivation for pursuing a teaching career. Preservice teachers (N = 97) from a large Northeastern urban university were chosen to complete a survey measuring personal utility value, social utility value, and epistemic value. Data analysis was conducted using exploratory factor…
Health economic studies: an introduction to cost-benefit, cost-effectiveness, and cost-utility analyses.

PubMed

Angevine, Peter D; Berven, Sigurd

2014-10-15

Narrative overview. To provide clinicians with a basic understanding of economic studies, including cost-benefit, cost-effectiveness, and cost-utility analyses. As decisions regarding public health policy, insurance reimbursement, and patient care incorporate factors other than traditional outcomes such as satisfaction or symptom resolution, health economic studies are increasingly prominent in the literature. This trend will likely continue, and it is therefore important for clinicians to have a fundamental understanding of the common types of economic studies and be able to read them critically. In this brief article, the basic concepts of economic studies and the differences between cost-benefit, cost-effectiveness, and cost-utility studies are discussed. An overview of the field of health economic analysis is presented. Cost-benefit, cost-effectiveness, and cost-utility studies all integrate cost and outcome data into a decision analysis model. These different types of studies are distinguished mainly by the way in which outcomes are valued. Obtaining accurate cost data is often difficult and can limit the generalizability of a study. With a basic understanding of health economic analysis, clinicians can be informed consumers of these important studies.
A theory of utility conditionals: Paralogical reasoning from decision-theoretic leakage.

PubMed

Bonnefon, Jean-François

2009-10-01

Many "if p, then q" conditionals have decision-theoretic features, such as antecedents or consequents that relate to the utility functions of various agents. These decision-theoretic features leak into reasoning processes, resulting in various paralogical conclusions. The theory of utility conditionals offers a unified account of the various forms that this phenomenon can take. The theory is built on 2 main components: (1) a representational tool (the utility grid), which summarizes in compact form the decision-theoretic features of a conditional, and (2) a set of folk axioms of decision, which reflect reasoners' beliefs about the way most agents make their decisions. Applying the folk axioms to the utility grid of a conditional allows for the systematic prediction of the paralogical conclusions invited by the utility grid's decision-theoretic features. The theory of utility conditionals significantly extends the scope of current theories of conditional inference and moves reasoning research toward a greater integration with decision-making research.
Evaluating the Utility of Web-Based Consumer Support Tools Using Rough Sets

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Maciag, Timothy; Hepting, Daryl H.; Slezak, Dominik; Hilderman, Robert J.

On the Web, many popular e-commerce sites provide consumers with decision support tools to assist them in their commerce-related decision-making. Many consumers will rank the utility of these tools quite highly. Data obtained from web usage mining analyses, which may provide knowledge about a user's online experiences, could help indicate the utility of these tools. This type of analysis could provide insight into whether provided tools are adequately assisting consumers in conducting their online shopping activities or if new or additional enhancements need consideration. Although some research in this regard has been described in previous literature, there is still much that can be done. The authors of this paper hypothesize that a measurement of consumer decision accuracy, i.e. a measurement preferences, could help indicate the utility of these tools. This paper describes a procedure developed towards this goal using elements of rough set theory. The authors evaluated the procedure using two support tools, one based on a tool developed by the US-EPA and the other developed by one of the authors called cogito. Results from the evaluation did provide interesting insights on the utility of both support tools. Although it was shown that the cogito tool obtained slightly higher decision accuracy, both tools could be improved from additional enhancements. Details of the procedure developed and results obtained from the evaluation will be provided. Opportunities for future work are also discussed.
Risk Decision Making Model for Reservoir Floodwater resources Utilization

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Huang, X.

2017-12-01

Floodwater resources utilization(FRU) can alleviate the shortage of water resources, but there are risks. In order to safely and efficiently utilize the floodwater resources, it is necessary to study the risk of reservoir FRU. In this paper, the risk rate of exceeding the design flood water level and the risk rate of exceeding safety discharge are estimated. Based on the principle of the minimum risk and the maximum benefit of FRU, a multi-objective risk decision making model for FRU is constructed. Probability theory and mathematical statistics method is selected to calculate the risk rate; C-D production function method and emergy analysis method is selected to calculate the risk benefit; the risk loss is related to flood inundation area and unit area loss; the multi-objective decision making problem of the model is solved by the constraint method. Taking the Shilianghe reservoir in Jiangsu Province as an example, the optimal equilibrium solution of FRU of the Shilianghe reservoir is found by using the risk decision making model, and the validity and applicability of the model are verified.
21 CFR 2.19 - Methods of analysis.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-04-01

... 21 Food and Drugs 1 2011-04-01 2011-04-01 false Methods of analysis. 2.19 Section 2.19 Food and... ADMINISTRATIVE RULINGS AND DECISIONS General Provisions § 2.19 Methods of analysis. Where the method of analysis... enforcement programs to utilize the methods of analysis of the AOAC INTERNATIONAL (AOAC) as published in the...
21 CFR 2.19 - Methods of analysis.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-04-01

... 21 Food and Drugs 1 2010-04-01 2010-04-01 false Methods of analysis. 2.19 Section 2.19 Food and... ADMINISTRATIVE RULINGS AND DECISIONS General Provisions § 2.19 Methods of analysis. Where the method of analysis... enforcement programs to utilize the methods of analysis of the AOAC INTERNATIONAL (AOAC) as published in the...
The application of decision analysis to life support research and technology development

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Ballin, Mark G.

1994-01-01

Applied research and technology development is often characterized by uncertainty, risk, and significant delays before tangible returns are obtained. Decision making regarding which technologies to advance and what resources to devote to them is a challenging but essential task. In the application of life support technology to future manned space flight, new technology concepts typically are characterized by nonexistent data and rough approximations of technology performance, uncertain future flight program needs, and a complex, time-intensive process to develop technology to a flight-ready status. Decision analysis is a quantitative, logic-based discipline that imposes formalism and structure to complex problems. It also accounts for the limits of knowledge that may be available at the time a decision is needed. The utility of decision analysis to life support technology R & D was evaluated by applying it to two case studies. The methodology was found to provide insight that is not possible from more traditional analysis approaches.
Colorectal cancer patients' attitudes towards involvement in decision making.

PubMed

Beaver, Kinta; Campbell, Malcolm; Craven, Olive; Jones, David; Luker, Karen A; Susnerwala, Shabbir S

2009-03-01

To design and administer an attitude rating scale, exploring colorectal cancer patients' views of involvement in decision making. To examine the impact of socio-demographic and/or treatment-related factors on decision making. To conduct principal components analysis to determine if the scale could be simplified into a number of factors for future clinical utility. An attitude rating scale was constructed based on previous qualitative work and administered to colorectal cancer patients using a cross-sectional survey approach. 375 questionnaires were returned (81.7% response). For patients it was important to be informed and involved in the decision-making process. Information was not always used to make decisions as patients placed their trust in medical expertise. Women had more positive opinions on decision making and were more likely to want to make decisions. Written information was understood to a greater degree than verbal information. The scale could be simplified to a number of factors, indicating clinical utility. Few studies have explored the attitudes of colorectal cancer patients towards involvement in decision making. This study presents new insights into how patients view the concept of participation; important when considering current policy imperatives in the UK of involving service users in all aspects of care and treatment.
Sophisticated Approval Voting, Ignorance Priors, and Plurality Heuristics: A Behavioral Social Choice Analysis in a Thurstonian Framework

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Regenwetter, Michel; Ho, Moon-Ho R.; Tsetlin, Ilia

2007-01-01

This project reconciles historically distinct paradigms at the interface between individual and social choice theory, as well as between rational and behavioral decision theory. The authors combine a utility-maximizing prescriptive rule for sophisticated approval voting with the ignorance prior heuristic from behavioral decision research and two…
Supporting Valid Decision Making: Uses and Misuses of Assessment Data within the Context of RtI

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Ball, Carrie R.; Christ, Theodore J.

2012-01-01

Within an RtI problem-solving context, assessment and decision making generally center around the tasks of problem identification, problem analysis, progress monitoring, and program evaluation. We use this framework to discuss the current state of the literature regarding curriculum based measurement, its technical properties, and its utility for…
Mapping clinical outcomes expectations to treatment decisions: an application to vestibular schwannoma management.

PubMed

Cheung, Steven W; Aranda, Derick; Driscoll, Colin L W; Parsa, Andrew T

2010-02-01

Complex medical decision making obligates tradeoff assessments among treatment outcomes expectations, but an accessible tool to perform the necessary analysis is conspicuously absent. We aimed to demonstrate methodology and feasibility of adapting conjoint analysis for mapping clinical outcomes expectations to treatment decisions in vestibular schwannoma (VS) management. Prospective. Tertiary medical center and US-based otologists/neurotologists. Treatment preference profiles among VS stakeholders-61 younger and 74 older prospective patients, 61 observation patients, and 60 surgeons-were assessed for the synthetic VS case scenario of a 10-mm tumor in association with useful hearing and normal facial function. Treatment attribute utility. Conjoint analysis attribute levels were set in accordance to the results of a meta-analysis. Forty-five case series were disaggregated to formulate microsurgery facial nerve and hearing preservation outcomes expectations models. Attribute utilities were computed and mapped to the realistic treatment choices of translabyrinthine craniotomy, middle fossa craniotomy, and gamma knife radiosurgery. Among the treatment attributes of likelihoods of causing deafness, temporary facial weakness for 2 months, and incurable cancer within 20 years, and recovery time, permanent deafness was less important to tumor surgeons, and temporary facial weakness was more important to tumor surgeons and observation patients (Wilcoxon rank-sum, p < 0.001). Inverse mapping of preference profiles to realistic treatment choices showed all study cohorts were inclined to choose gamma knife radiosurgery. Mapping clinical outcomes expectations to treatment decisions for a synthetic clinical scenario revealed inhomogeneous drivers of choice selection among study cohorts. Medical decision engines that analyze personal preferences of outcomes expectations for VS and many other diseases may be developed to promote shared decision making among health care stakeholders and transparency in the informed consent process.
Markov chain decision model for urinary incontinence procedures.

PubMed

Kumar, Sameer; Ghildayal, Nidhi; Ghildayal, Neha

2017-03-13

Purpose Urinary incontinence (UI) is a common chronic health condition, a problem specifically among elderly women that impacts quality of life negatively. However, UI is usually viewed as likely result of old age, and as such is generally not evaluated or even managed appropriately. Many treatments are available to manage incontinence, such as bladder training and numerous surgical procedures such as Burch colposuspension and Sling for UI which have high success rates. The purpose of this paper is to analyze which of these popular surgical procedures for UI is effective. Design/methodology/approach This research employs randomized, prospective studies to obtain robust cost and utility data used in the Markov chain decision model for examining which of these surgical interventions is more effective in treating women with stress UI based on two measures: number of quality adjusted life years (QALY) and cost per QALY. Treeage Pro Healthcare software was employed in Markov decision analysis. Findings Results showed the Sling procedure is a more effective surgical intervention than the Burch. However, if a utility greater than certain utility value, for which both procedures are equally effective, is assigned to persistent incontinence, the Burch procedure is more effective than the Sling procedure. Originality/value This paper demonstrates the efficacy of a Markov chain decision modeling approach to study the comparative effectiveness analysis of available treatments for patients with UI, an important public health issue, widely prevalent among elderly women in developed and developing countries. This research also improves upon other analyses using a Markov chain decision modeling process to analyze various strategies for treating UI.
The once and future application of cost-effectiveness analysis.

PubMed

Berger, M L

1999-09-01

Cost-effectiveness analysis (CEA) is used by payers to make coverage decisions, by providers to make formulary decisions, and by large purchasers/employers and policymakers to choose health care performance measures. However, it continues to be poorly utilized in the marketplace because of overriding financial imperatives to control costs and a low apparent willingness to pay for quality. There is no obvious relationship between the cost-effectiveness of life-saving interventions and their application. Health care decision makers consider financial impact, safety, and effectiveness before cost-effectiveness. WHY IS CEA NOT MORE WIDELY APPLIED? Most health care providers have a short-term parochial financial perspective, whereas CEA takes a long-term view that captures all costs, benefits, and hazards, regardless of to whom they accrue. In addition, a history of poor standardization of methods, unrealistic expectations that CEA could answer fundamental ethical and political issues, and society's failure to accept the need for allocating scarce resources more judiciously, have contributed to relatively little use of the method by decision makers. HOW WILL CEA FIND GREATER UTILITY IN THE FUTURE? As decision makers take a longer-term view and understand that CEA can provide a quantitative perspective on important resource allocation decisions, including the distributional consequences of alternative choices, CEA is likely to find greater use. However, it must be embedded within a framework that promotes confidence in the social justice of health care decision making through ongoing dialogue about how the value of health and health care are defined.
Predicting Health Care Utilization After Behavioral Health Referral Using Natural Language Processing and Machine Learning.

PubMed

Roysden, Nathaniel; Wright, Adam

2015-01-01

Mental health problems are an independent predictor of increased healthcare utilization. We created random forest classifiers for predicting two outcomes following a patient's first behavioral health encounter: decreased utilization by any amount (AUROC 0.74) and ultra-high absolute utilization (AUROC 0.88). These models may be used for clinical decision support by referring providers, to automatically detect patients who may benefit from referral, for cost management, or for risk/protection factor analysis.
The role of pharmacoeconomics in current Indian healthcare system.

PubMed

Ahmad, Akram; Patel, Isha; Parimilakrishnan, Sundararajan; Mohanta, Guru Prasad; Chung, HaeChung; Chang, Jongwha

2013-01-01

Phamacoeconomics can aid the policy makers and the healthcare providers in decision making in evaluating the affordability of and access to rational drug use. Efficiency is a key concept of pharmacoeconomics, and various strategies are suggested for buying the greatest amount of benefits for a given resource use. Phamacoeconomic evaluation techniques such as cost minimization analysis, cost effectiveness analysis, cost benefit analysis, and cost utilization analysis, which support identification and quantification of cost of drugs, are conducted in a similar way, but vary in measurement of value of health benefits and outcomes. This article provides a brief overview about pharmacoeconomics, its utility with respect to the Indian pharmaceutical industry, and the expanding insurance system in India. Pharmacoeconomic evidences can be utilized to support decisions on licensing, pricing, reimbursement, and maintenance of formulary procedure of pharmaceuticals. For the insurance companies to give better facility at minimum cost, India must develop the platform for pharmacoeconomics with a validating methodology and appropriate training. The role of clinical pharmacists including PharmD graduates are expected to be more beneficial than the conventional pharmacists, as they will be able to apply the principles of economics in daily basis practice in community and hospital pharmacy.
The role of pharmacoeconomics in current Indian healthcare system

PubMed Central

Ahmad, Akram; Patel, Isha; Parimilakrishnan, Sundararajan; Mohanta, Guru Prasad; Chung, HaeChung; Chang, Jongwha

2013-01-01

Phamacoeconomics can aid the policy makers and the healthcare providers in decision making in evaluating the affordability of and access to rational drug use. Efficiency is a key concept of pharmacoeconomics, and various strategies are suggested for buying the greatest amount of benefits for a given resource use. Phamacoeconomic evaluation techniques such as cost minimization analysis, cost effectiveness analysis, cost benefit analysis, and cost utilization analysis, which support identification and quantification of cost of drugs, are conducted in a similar way, but vary in measurement of value of health benefits and outcomes. This article provides a brief overview about pharmacoeconomics, its utility with respect to the Indian pharmaceutical industry, and the expanding insurance system in India. Pharmacoeconomic evidences can be utilized to support decisions on licensing, pricing, reimbursement, and maintenance of formulary procedure of pharmaceuticals. For the insurance companies to give better facility at minimum cost, India must develop the platform for pharmacoeconomics with a validating methodology and appropriate training. The role of clinical pharmacists including PharmD graduates are expected to be more beneficial than the conventional pharmacists, as they will be able to apply the principles of economics in daily basis practice in community and hospital pharmacy. PMID:24991597
Health state utilities: a framework for studying the gap between the imagined and the real.

PubMed

Stiggelbout, Anne M; de Vogel-Voogt, Elsbeth

2008-01-01

Health state utilities play an important role in decision analysis and cost-utility analysis. The question whose utilities to use at various levels of health-care decision-making has been subject of considerable debate. The observation that patients often value their own health, but also other health states, higher than members of the general public raises the question what underlies such differences? Is it an artifact of the valuation methods? Is it adaptation versus poor anticipated adaptation? This article describes a framework for the understanding and study of potential mechanisms that play a role in health state valuation. It aims at connecting research from within different fields so that cross-fertilization of ideas may occur. The framework is based on stimulus response models from social judgment theory. For each phase, from stimulus, through information interpretation and integration, to judgment, and, finally, to response, we provide evidence of factors and processes that may lead to different utilities in patients and healthy subjects. Examples of factors and processes described are the lack of scope of scenarios in the stimulus phase, and appraisal processes and framing effects in the information interpretation phase. Factors that play a role in the judgment phase are, for example, heuristics and biases, adaptation, and comparison processes. Some mechanisms related to the response phase are end aversion bias, probability distortion, and noncompensatory decision-making. The framework serves to explain many of the differences in valuations between respondent groups. We discuss some of the findings as they relate to the field of response shift research. We propose issues for discussion in the field, and suggestions for improvement of the process of utility assessment.

Reconciling uncertain costs and benefits in bayes nets for invasive species management

USGS Publications Warehouse

Burgman, M.A.; Wintle, B.A.; Thompson, C.A.; Moilanen, A.; Runge, M.C.; Ben-Haim, Y.

2010-01-01

Bayes nets are used increasingly to characterize environmental systems and formalize probabilistic reasoning to support decision making. These networks treat probabilities as exact quantities. Sensitivity analysis can be used to evaluate the importance of assumptions and parameter estimates. Here, we outline an application of info-gap theory to Bayes nets that evaluates the sensitivity of decisions to possibly large errors in the underlying probability estimates and utilities. We apply it to an example of management and eradication of Red Imported Fire Ants in Southern Queensland, Australia and show how changes in management decisions can be justified when uncertainty is considered. ?? 2009 Society for Risk Analysis.
Utilization of a Multi-Disciplinary Approach to Building Effective Command Centers: Process and Products

DTIC Science & Technology

2005-06-01

cognitive task analysis , organizational information dissemination and interaction, systems engineering, collaboration and communications processes, decision-making processes, and data collection and organization. By blending these diverse disciplines command centers can be designed to support decision-making, cognitive analysis, information technology, and the human factors engineering aspects of Command and Control (C2). This model can then be used as a baseline when dealing with work in areas of business processes, workflow engineering, information management,
A stochastic conflict resolution model for trading pollutant discharge permits in river systems.

PubMed

Niksokhan, Mohammad Hossein; Kerachian, Reza; Amin, Pedram

2009-07-01

This paper presents an efficient methodology for developing pollutant discharge permit trading in river systems considering the conflict of interests of involving decision-makers and the stakeholders. In this methodology, a trade-off curve between objectives is developed using a powerful and recently developed multi-objective genetic algorithm technique known as the Nondominated Sorting Genetic Algorithm-II (NSGA-II). The best non-dominated solution on the trade-off curve is defined using the Young conflict resolution theory, which considers the utility functions of decision makers and stakeholders of the system. These utility functions are related to the total treatment cost and a fuzzy risk of violating the water quality standards. The fuzzy risk is evaluated using the Monte Carlo analysis. Finally, an optimization model provides the trading discharge permit policies. The practical utility of the proposed methodology in decision-making is illustrated through a realistic example of the Zarjub River in the northern part of Iran.
Beyond statistical inference: A decision theory for science

PubMed Central

KILLEEN, PETER R.

2008-01-01

Traditional null hypothesis significance testing does not yield the probability of the null or its alternative and, therefore, cannot logically ground scientific decisions. The decision theory proposed here calculates the expected utility of an effect on the basis of (1) the probability of replicating it and (2) a utility function on its size. It takes significance tests—which place all value on the replicability of an effect and none on its magnitude—as a special case, one in which the cost of a false positive is revealed to be an order of magnitude greater than the value of a true positive. More realistic utility functions credit both replicability and effect size, integrating them for a single index of merit. The analysis incorporates opportunity cost and is consistent with alternate measures of effect size, such as r2 and information transmission, and with Bayesian model selection criteria. An alternate formulation is functionally equivalent to the formal theory, transparent, and easy to compute. PMID:17201351
Beyond statistical inference: a decision theory for science.

PubMed

Killeen, Peter R

2006-08-01

Traditional null hypothesis significance testing does not yield the probability of the null or its alternative and, therefore, cannot logically ground scientific decisions. The decision theory proposed here calculates the expected utility of an effect on the basis of (1) the probability of replicating it and (2) a utility function on its size. It takes significance tests--which place all value on the replicability of an effect and none on its magnitude--as a special case, one in which the cost of a false positive is revealed to be an order of magnitude greater than the value of a true positive. More realistic utility functions credit both replicability and effect size, integrating them for a single index of merit. The analysis incorporates opportunity cost and is consistent with alternate measures of effect size, such as r2 and information transmission, and with Bayesian model selection criteria. An alternate formulation is functionally equivalent to the formal theory, transparent, and easy to compute.
Anxiety: towards a decision-theoretic perspective.

PubMed

Shechter, M; Zeidner, M

1990-05-01

This paper sets out to illustrate how anxiety may be incorporated into a formal decision theoretic utility model of choice, and to suggest several measurement procedures towards that end. The major propositions derived and posited in this paper lend considerable support to intuitive notions with respect to the effects of anxiety on human behaviour in risky decision situations. Namely, that the willingness of an individual to pay to reduce health risks (an economic indicator of individual welfare associated with reduced morbidity or increased longevity) tends to be positive and higher when anxiety is present than when it is not. The formal results of the analysis show that when psychological considerations are incorporated into a state-dependent utility model, the normative results customarily obtained concerning value-of-life need to be qualified.
Actual and Ideal Decision-Making Processes Utilized in Senior High Schools That Individualize Instruction. Technical Report No. 460.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Watkins, Arthur Noel

The purpose of this study was to identify and describe the decision-making processes in senior high schools that were implementing programs of individualized schooling. Field methodology, including interviews, observations, and analysis of documents, was used to gather data in six senior high schools of varying size located throughout the country,…
Desktop microsimulation: a tool to improve efficiency in the medical office practice.

PubMed

Montgomery, James B; Linville, Beth A; Slonim, Anthony D

2013-01-01

Because the economic crisis in the United States continues to have an impact on healthcare organizations, industry leaders must optimize their decision making. Discrete-event computer simulation is a quality tool with a demonstrated track record of improving the precision of analysis for process redesign. However, the use of simulation to consolidate practices and design efficiencies into an unfinished medical office building was a unique task. A discrete-event computer simulation package was used to model the operations and forecast future results for four orthopedic surgery practices. The scenarios were created to allow an evaluation of the impact of process change on the output variables of exam room utilization, patient queue size, and staff utilization. The model helped with decisions regarding space allocation and efficient exam room use by demonstrating the impact of process changes in patient queues at check-in/out, x-ray, and cast room locations when compared to the status quo model. The analysis impacted decisions on facility layout, patient flow, and staff functions in this newly consolidated practice. Simulation was found to be a useful tool for process redesign and decision making even prior to building occupancy. © 2011 National Association for Healthcare Quality.
Methodological Issues in the Study of Air Force Organizational Structures,

DTIC Science & Technology

MOTIVATION, MORALE, PERFORMANCE(HUMAN), LEADERSHIP , SKILLS, MANAGEMENT PLANNING AND CONTROL, MODEL THEORY , SYMPOSIA...RESOURCE MANAGEMENT , *HUMAN RESOURCES, *MANPOWER UTILIZATION, *JOB ANALYSIS, *ORGANIZATIONS, STRUCTURES, PERSONNEL MANAGEMENT , DECISION MAKING
Information systems in ADOT : an analysis of intra-function flow, decision support needs, existing systems utility and user attitudes. Final report, volume 3 : appendices

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

1985-03-01

A report is offered on a study of the information activities within the Right-of-Way section of ADOT. The objectives of the study were to adapt and apply techniques to measure user-perceived needs, satisfaction and utility of services provided Right-...
Information systems in ADOT : an analysis of intra-function flow, decision support needs, existing systems utility and user attitudes. Final report, volume 1

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

1985-03-01

A report is offered on a study of the information activities within the Right-of-Way section of ADOT. The objectives of the study were to adapt and apply techniques to measure user-perceived needs, satisfaction and utility of services provided Right-...
To analyse a trace or not? Evaluating the decision-making process in the criminal investigation.

PubMed

Bitzer, Sonja; Ribaux, Olivier; Albertini, Nicola; Delémont, Olivier

2016-05-01

In order to broaden our knowledge and understanding of the decision steps in the criminal investigation process, we started by evaluating the decision to analyse a trace and the factors involved in this decision step. This decision step is embedded in the complete criminal investigation process, involving multiple decision and triaging steps. Considering robbery cases occurring in a geographic region during a 2-year-period, we have studied the factors influencing the decision to submit biological traces, directly sampled on the scene of the robbery or on collected objects, for analysis. The factors were categorised into five knowledge dimensions: strategic, immediate, physical, criminal and utility and decision tree analysis was carried out. Factors in each category played a role in the decision to analyse a biological trace. Interestingly, factors involving information available prior to the analysis are of importance, such as the fact that a positive result (a profile suitable for comparison) is already available in the case, or that a suspect has been identified through traditional police work before analysis. One factor that was taken into account, but was not significant, is the matrix of the trace. Hence, the decision to analyse a trace is not influenced by this variable. The decision to analyse a trace first is very complex and many of the tested variables were taken into account. The decisions are often made on a case-by-case basis. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.
Health State Utility Values for Age-Related Macular Degeneration: Review and Advice.

PubMed

Butt, Thomas; Tufail, Adnan; Rubin, Gary

2017-02-01

Health state utility values are a major source of uncertainty in economic evaluations of interventions for age-related macular degeneration (AMD). This review identifies and critiques published utility values and methods for eliciting de novo utility values in AMD. We describe how utility values have been used in healthcare decision making and provide guidance on the choice of utility values for future economic evaluations for AMD. Literature was searched using PubMed, and health technology assessments (HTA) were searched using HTA agency websites to identify articles reporting utility values or approaches to derive utility values in AMD and articles applying utilities for use in healthcare decision making relating to treatments for AMD. A total of 70 studies qualified for data extraction, 22 of which were classified as containing utility values and/or elicitation methods, and 48 were classified as using utility values in decision making. A large number of studies have elicited utility values for AMD, although those applied to decision making have focused on a few of these. There is an appreciation of the challenges in the measurement and valuation of health states, with recent studies addressing challenges such as the insensitivity of generic health-related quality of life (HRQoL) questionnaires and utility in the worse-seeing eye. We would encourage careful consideration when choosing utility values in decision making and an explicit critique of their applicability to the decision problem.
Development and initial evaluation of a treatment decision dashboard.

PubMed

Dolan, James G; Veazie, Peter J; Russ, Ann J

2013-04-21

For many healthcare decisions, multiple alternatives are available with different combinations of advantages and disadvantages across several important dimensions. The complexity of current healthcare decisions thus presents a significant barrier to informed decision making, a key element of patient-centered care.Interactive decision dashboards were developed to facilitate decision making in Management, a field marked by similarly complicated choices. These dashboards utilize data visualization techniques to reduce the cognitive effort needed to evaluate decision alternatives and a non-linear flow of information that enables users to review information in a self-directed fashion. Theoretically, both of these features should facilitate informed decision making by increasing user engagement with and understanding of the decision at hand. We sought to determine if the interactive decision dashboard format can be successfully adapted to create a clinically realistic prototype patient decision aid suitable for further evaluation and refinement. We created a computerized, interactive clinical decision dashboard and performed a pilot test of its clinical feasibility and acceptability using a multi-method analysis. The dashboard summarized information about the effectiveness, risks of side effects and drug-drug interactions, out-of-pocket costs, and ease of use of nine analgesic treatment options for knee osteoarthritis. Outcome evaluations included observations of how study participants utilized the dashboard, questionnaires to assess usability, acceptability, and decisional conflict, and an open-ended qualitative analysis. The study sample consisted of 25 volunteers - 7 men and 18 women - with an average age of 51 years. The mean time spent interacting with the dashboard was 4.6 minutes. Mean evaluation scores on scales ranging from 1 (low) to 7 (high) were: mechanical ease of use 6.1, cognitive ease of use 6.2, emotional difficulty 2.7, decision-aiding effectiveness 5.9, clarification of values 6.5, reduction in decisional uncertainty 6.1, and provision of decision-related information 6.0. Qualitative findings were similarly positive. Interactive decision dashboards can be adapted for clinical use and have the potential to foster informed decision making. Additional research is warranted to more rigorously test the effectiveness and efficiency of patient decision dashboards for supporting informed decision making and other aspects of patient-centered care, including shared decision making.
Coordinating water conservation efforts through tradable credits: A proof of concept for drought response in the San Francisco Bay area

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gonzales, Patricia; Ajami, Newsha; Sun, Yujie

2017-09-01

Water utilities are increasingly relying on water efficiency and conservation to extend the availability of supplies. Despite spatial and institutional interdependency of many utilities, these demand-side management initiatives have traditionally been tackled by individual utilities operating in isolation. In this study, we introduce a policy framework for water conservation credits that enables collaboration at the regional scale. Under the proposed approach, utilities have the flexibility to invest in water conservation measures that are appropriate for their specific service area. When utilities have insufficient capacity for local cost-effective measures, they may opt to purchase credits, contributing to fund subsidies for utilities that do have that capacity and can provide the credits, while the region as a whole benefits from more reliable water supplies. This work aims to provide insights on the potential impacts of a water conservation credit policy framework when utilities are given the option to collaborate in their efforts. We model utility decisions as rational cost-minimizing actors subject to different decision-making dynamics and water demand scenarios, and demonstrate the institutional characteristics needed for the proposed policy to be effective. We apply this model to a counterfactual case study of water utility members of the Bay Area Water Supply and Conservation Agency in California during the drought period of June 2015 to May 2016. Our scenario analysis indicates that when the institutional structure and incentives are appropriately defined, water agencies can achieve economic benefits from collaborating in their conservation efforts, especially if they coordinate more closely in their decision-making.
Psychophysical Models for Signal Detection with Time Varying Uncertainty. Ph.D. Thesis

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Gai, E.

1975-01-01

Psychophysical models for the behavior of the human operator in detection tasks which include change in detectability, correlation between observations and deferred decisions are developed. Classical Signal Detection Theory (SDT) is discussed and its emphasis on the sensory processes is contrasted to decision strategies. The analysis of decision strategies utilizes detection tasks with time varying signal strength. The classical theory is modified to include such tasks and several optimal decision strategies are explored. Two methods of classifying strategies are suggested. The first method is similar to the analysis of ROC curves, while the second is based on the relation between the criterion level (CL) and the detectability. Experiments to verify the analysis of tasks with changes of signal strength are designed. The results show that subjects are aware of changes in detectability and tend to use strategies that involve changes in the CL's.
Using Multicriteria Approaches to Assess the Value of Health Care.

PubMed

Phelps, Charles E; Madhavan, Guruprasad

2017-02-01

Practitioners of cost-utility analysis know that their models omit several important factors that often affect real-world decisions about health care options. Furthermore, cost-utility analyses typically reflect only single perspectives (e.g., individual, business, and societal), further limiting the value for those with different perspectives (patients, providers, payers, producers, and planners-the 5Ps). We discuss how models based on multicriteria analyses, which look at problems from many perspectives, can fill this void. Each of the 5Ps can use multicriteria analyses in different ways to aid their decisions. Each perspective may lead to different value measures and outcomes, whereas no single-metric approach (such as cost-utility analysis) can satisfy all these stakeholders. All stakeholders have unique ways to measure value, even if assessing the same health intervention. We illustrate the benefits of this approach by comparing the value of five different hypothetical treatment choices for five hypothetical patients with cancer, each with different preference structures. Nine attributes describe each treatment option. We add a brief discussion regarding the use of these approaches in group-based decisions. We urge that methods to value health interventions embrace the multicriteria approaches that we discuss, because these approaches 1) increase transparency about the decision process, 2) allow flight simulator-type evaluation of alternative interventions before actual investment or deployment, 3) help focus efforts to improve data in an efficient manner, 4) at least in some cases help facilitate decision convergence among stakeholders with differing perspectives, and 5) help avoid potential cognitive errors known to impair intuitive judgments. Copyright © 2017 International Society for Pharmacoeconomics and Outcomes Research (ISPOR). Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.
Defender-Attacker Decision Tree Analysis to Combat Terrorism.

PubMed

Garcia, Ryan J B; von Winterfeldt, Detlof

2016-12-01

We propose a methodology, called defender-attacker decision tree analysis, to evaluate defensive actions against terrorist attacks in a dynamic and hostile environment. Like most game-theoretic formulations of this problem, we assume that the defenders act rationally by maximizing their expected utility or minimizing their expected costs. However, we do not assume that attackers maximize their expected utilities. Instead, we encode the defender's limited knowledge about the attacker's motivations and capabilities as a conditional probability distribution over the attacker's decisions. We apply this methodology to the problem of defending against possible terrorist attacks on commercial airplanes, using one of three weapons: infrared-guided MANPADS (man-portable air defense systems), laser-guided MANPADS, or visually targeted RPGs (rocket propelled grenades). We also evaluate three countermeasures against these weapons: DIRCMs (directional infrared countermeasures), perimeter control around the airport, and hardening airplanes. The model includes deterrence effects, the effectiveness of the countermeasures, and the substitution of weapons and targets once a specific countermeasure is selected. It also includes a second stage of defensive decisions after an attack occurs. Key findings are: (1) due to the high cost of the countermeasures, not implementing countermeasures is the preferred defensive alternative for a large range of parameters; (2) if the probability of an attack and the associated consequences are large, a combination of DIRCMs and ground perimeter control are preferred over any single countermeasure. © 2016 Society for Risk Analysis.
Optimal management of colorectal liver metastases in older patients: a decision analysis

PubMed Central

Yang, Simon; Alibhai, Shabbir MH; Kennedy, Erin D; El-Sedfy, Abraham; Dixon, Matthew; Coburn, Natalie; Kiss, Alex; Law, Calvin HL

2014-01-01

Background Comparative trials evaluating management strategies for colorectal cancer liver metastases (CLM) are lacking, especially for older patients. This study developed a decision-analytic model to quantify outcomes associated with treatment strategies for CLM in older patients. Methods A Markov-decision model was built to examine the effect on life expectancy (LE) and quality-adjusted life expectancy (QALE) for best supportive care (BSC), systemic chemotherapy (SC), radiofrequency ablation (RFA) and hepatic resection (HR). The baseline patient cohort assumptions included healthy 70-year-old CLM patients after a primary cancer resection. Event and transition probabilities and utilities were derived from a literature review. Deterministic and probabilistic sensitivity analyses were performed on all study parameters. Results In base case analysis, BSC, SC, RFA and HR yielded LEs of 11.9, 23.1, 34.8 and 37.0 months, and QALEs of 7.8, 13.2, 22.0 and 25.0 months, respectively. Model results were sensitive to age, comorbidity, length of model simulation and utility after HR. Probabilistic sensitivity analysis showed increasing preference for RFA over HR with increasing patient age. Conclusions HR may be optimal for healthy 70-year-old patients with CLM. In older patients with comorbidities, RFA may provide better LE and QALE. Treatment decisions in older cancer patients should account for patient age, comorbidities, local expertise and individual values. PMID:24961482
Utility Assessment Methods.

DTIC Science & Technology

1982-05-01

Raiffa (831, LaValle [891, and other books on decision analysis. 4.2 Risk Attitudes Much recent research has focused on the investigation of various risk...Issacs, G.L., Hamer, R., Chen, J., Chuang, D., Woodworth, G., Molenaar , I., Lewis C., and Libby, D., Manual for the Computer-Assisted Data Analysis (CADA

Determining the best treatment for simple bone cyst: a decision analysis.

PubMed

Lee, Seung Yeol; Chung, Chin Youb; Lee, Kyoung Min; Sung, Ki Hyuk; Won, Sung Hun; Choi, In Ho; Cho, Tae-Joon; Yoo, Won Joon; Yeo, Ji Hyun; Park, Moon Seok

2014-03-01

The treatment of simple bone cysts (SBC) in children varies significantly among physicians. This study examined which procedure is better for the treatment of SBC, using a decision analysis based on current published evidence. A decision tree focused on five treatment modalities of SBC (observation, steroid injection, autologous bone marrow injection, decompression, and curettage with bone graft) were created. Each treatment modality was further branched, according to the presence and severity of complications. The probabilities of all cases were obtained by literature review. A roll back tool was utilized to determine the most preferred treatment modality. One-way sensitivity analysis was performed to determine the threshold value of the treatment modalities. Two-way sensitivity analysis was utilized to examine the joint impact of changes in probabilities of two parameters. The decision model favored autologous bone marrow injection. The expected value of autologous bone marrow injection was 0.9445, while those of observation, steroid injection, decompression, and curettage and bone graft were 0.9318, 0.9400, 0.9395, and 0.9342, respectively. One-way sensitivity analysis showed that autologous bone marrow injection was better than that of decompression for the expected value when the rate of pathologic fracture, or positive symptoms of SBC after autologous bone marrow injection, was lower than 20.4%. In our study, autologous bone marrow injection was found to be the best choice of treatment of SBC. However, the results were sensitive to the rate of pathologic fracture after treatment of SBC. Physicians should consider the possibility of pathologic fracture when they determine a treatment method for SBC.
Trajectory selection for the Mariner Jupiter/Saturn 1977 project

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Dyer, J. S.; Miles, R. F., Jr.

1974-01-01

The use of decision analysis to facilitate a group decision-making problem in the selection of trajectories for the two spacecraft of the Mariner Jupiter/Saturn 1977 Project. A set of 32 candidate trajectory pairs was developed. Cardinal utility function values were assigned to the trajectory pairs, and the data and statistics derived from collective choice rules were used in selecting the science-preferred trajectory pair.
The impact of patient autonomy on older adults with asthma.

PubMed

Karamched, Keerthi R; Hao, Wei; Song, Peter X; Carpenter, Laurie; Steinberg, Joel; Baptist, Alan P

2018-05-03

Understanding patient preferences and desire for involvement in making medical decisions is important when managing chronic conditions. Previous studies have utilized the Autonomy Preference Index (API) in younger asthmatic patients to evaluate these preferences. To identify factors associated with autonomy, and to determine if autonomy is related to asthma outcomes among older adults. 189 older adults (>55 yr) with persistent asthma were included. Preferences for autonomy were assessed using the API, with a higher score indicating higher desire for autonomy. Scores were separated into two domains of 'information seeking' and 'decision making' preferences. The separated scores were correlated with asthma outcomes and demographic variables. To control for confounding factors, a linear regression analysis was performed. Higher 'decision making' preference scores correlated with female gender (p=0.007), higher education level (p=0.01), and lower depression scores (p=0.04). Regarding outcomes, 'decision making' scores positively correlated with asthma quality of life questionnaire (AQLQ) scores (p=0.01). On linear regression analysis, the AQLQ score remained significantly associated with 'decision making' preference scores (p=0.03). There was no association with asthma control test scores, spirometry values, and healthcare utilization. 'Information seeking' preference scores correlated with education level (p=0.03), but there was no correlation with asthma outcomes. Older asthmatic adults with a greater desire for involvement in decision making have a higher asthma related quality of life. Future studies with the intention to increase patient autonomy may help establish a causal relationship. Copyright © 2018. Published by Elsevier Inc.
Medical decision-making and the patient: understanding preference patterns for growth hormone therapy using conjoint analysis.

PubMed

Singh, J; Cuttler, L; Shin, M; Silvers, J B; Neuhauser, D

1998-08-01

This study examines two questions that relate to patients' role in medical decision making: (1) Do patients utilize multiple attributes in evaluating different treatment options?, and (2) Do patient treatment preferences evidence heterogeneity and disparate patterns? Although research has examined these questions by using either individual- or aggregate-level approaches, the authors demonstrate an intermediate level approach (ie, relating to patient subgroups). The authors utilize growth augmentation therapy (GAT) as a context for analyzing these questions because GAT reflects a class of nonemergency treatments that (1) are based on genetic technology, (2) aim to improve the quality (rather than quantity) of life, and (3) offer useful insights for the patient's role in medical decision making. Using conjoint analysis, a methodology especially suited for the study of patient-consumer preferences but largely unexplored in the medical field, data were obtained from 154 parents for their decision to pursue GAT for their child. In all, six attributes were utilized to study GAT, including risk of long-term side effects (1:10,000 or 1:100,000), certainty of effect (50% or 100% of cases), amount of effect (1-2 inches or 4-5 inches in adult height), out-of-pocket cost ($100, $2,000, or $10,000/year) and child's attitude (likes or not likes therapy). An experimental design using conjoint analysis procedures revealed five preference patterns that reflect clear disparities in the importance that parents attach to the different attributes of growth therapy. These preference patterns are (1) child-focused (23%), (2) risk-conscious (36%), (3) balanced (23%), (4) cost-conscious (14%), and (5) ease-of-use (4%) oriented. Additional tests provided evidence for the validity of these preference patterns. Finally, this preference heterogeneity related systematically to parental characteristics (eg, demographic, psychologic). The study results offer additional insights into medical decision making with the consumer as the focal point and extend previous work that has tended to emphasize either an individual- or aggregate-based analysis. Implications for researchers and health care delivery in general and growth hormone management in particular are provided.
Dyadic fertility decisions in a life course perspective.

PubMed

Bauer, Gerrit; Kneip, Thorsten

2014-09-01

This paper focuses on how couples arrive at joint decisions with regard to fertility behaviour. We build upon previous work on decision rules that couples might apply as heuristics in order to arrive at joint action in cases in which partners' fertility preferences differ. Previous research found either stronger effects of women's desires or symmetrical effects of both spouses' desires and net benefits associated with (further) children on proceptive behaviour. The latter finding is in line with the notion of household utility maximisation, in which both partners' preferences enter into a joint utility function with equal weight. On the other hand, some evidence indicates that one partner can exercise a 'veto' if he or she anticipates individual utility losses from a further child (due to opportunity costs arising in other life domains). We now enhance previous research by applying a life-course perspective. Our analysis makes use of variation in initial conditions due to previous births: couples decide on fertility in different situations as they find themselves in different life course stages and have had certain experiences. Parity-specific differences affect not only fertility outcomes but also the decision-making process itself. Our findings show that the decision to have a first child is made jointly, and each partner may exercise a veto. On the other hand, women appear to dominate decisions on higher parity births, not per se, but because they are (still) the ones more affected by the concomitant housework. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
Eliciting and Combining Decision Criteria Using a Limited Palette of Utility Functions and Uncertainty Distributions: Illustrated by Application to Pest Risk Analysis.

PubMed

Holt, Johnson; Leach, Adrian W; Schrader, Gritta; Petter, Françoise; MacLeod, Alan; van der Gaag, Dirk Jan; Baker, Richard H A; Mumford, John D

2014-01-01

Utility functions in the form of tables or matrices have often been used to combine discretely rated decision-making criteria. Matrix elements are usually specified individually, so no one rule or principle can be easily stated for the utility function as a whole. A series of five matrices are presented that aggregate criteria two at a time using simple rules that express a varying degree of constraint of the lower rating over the higher. A further nine possible matrices were obtained by using a different rule either side of the main axis of the matrix to describe situations where the criteria have a differential influence on the outcome. Uncertainties in the criteria are represented by three alternative frequency distributions from which the assessors select the most appropriate. The output of the utility function is a distribution of rating frequencies that is dependent on the distributions of the input criteria. In pest risk analysis (PRA), seven of these utility functions were required to mimic the logic by which assessors for the European and Mediterranean Plant Protection Organization arrive at an overall rating of pest risk. The framework enables the development of PRAs that are consistent and easy to understand, criticize, compare, and change. When tested in workshops, PRA practitioners thought that the approach accorded with both the logic and the level of resolution that they used in the risk assessments. © 2013 Society for Risk Analysis.
Ecological Settings and State Economies as Factor Inputs in the Provision of Outdoor Recreation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Siderelis, Christos; Smith, Jordan W.

2013-09-01

State parks play a substantial role in the provision of outdoor recreation opportunities within the United States. Park operators must make crucial decisions in how they allocate capital expenditures, labor, and parkland to maintain recreation opportunities. Their decisions are influenced, in part, by the ecological characteristics of their state's park system as well as the vitality of their state's economy. In this research, we incorporate the characteristics of states' ecosystems and their local economies into a formal production analysis of the states' park systems from the years 1986 to 2011. Our analysis revealed all three factors of production were positive and inelastic. Expenditures on labor had the largest effect on both park utilization and operational expenditures. Our analysis also found a large degree of variability in the effects of ecological characteristics on both utilization and operating expenditures. Parkland utilization and operational expenditures were more elastic in areas such as Oceania and Mediterranean California relative to other ecological regions. These findings lead us to conclude that state park operators will experience variable levels of difficulty in both accommodating increasing demands for recreation from state parks and maintaining the existing quality of outdoor recreation provided within their system.
Spaceborne power systems preference analyses. Volume 1: Summary

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Smith, J. H.; Feinberg, A.; Miles, R. F., Jr.

1985-01-01

Sixteen alternative spaceborne nuclear power system concepts were ranked using multiattribute decision analysis to identify promising concepts for further technology development. Four groups interviewed were: safety, systems definition and design, technology assessment, and mission analysis. The ranking results were consistent from group and for different utility function models for individuals.
Employing Conjoint Analysis in Making Compensation Decisions.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Kienast, Philip; And Others

1983-01-01

Describes a method employing conjoint analysis that generates utility/cost ratios for various elements of the compensation package. Its superiority to simple preference surveys is examined. Results of a study of the use of this method in fringe benefit planning in a large financial institution are reported. (Author/JAC)
A qualitative analysis of parental decision making for childhood immunisation.

PubMed

Marshall, S; Swerissen, H

1999-10-01

Achieving high rates of childhood immunisation is an important public health aim. Currently, however, immunisation uptake in Australia is disappointing. This qualitative study investigated the factors that influence parental decision making for childhood immunisation, and whether parents' experiences were better conceptualised in terms of static subjective expected utility models or in terms of a more dynamic process. Semi-structured in-depth interviews were conducted with 20 predominantly middle-class mothers--17 immunizers and three non-immunizers, in Melbourne, Victoria, in 1997. The data were then examined using thematic analysis. The results suggested that for these participants the decision regarding childhood immunization was better conceptualized as a dynamic process. The decision required initial consideration, implementation then maintenance. If a better understanding of immunization decision making is to be achieved, future studies must look beyond static frameworks. Clearer insight into the dynamic nature of immunization decision making should assist in the identification of more effective methods of promoting childhood immunization to groups at risk of non-compliance.
GIS-based suitability modeling and multi-criteria decision analysis for utility scale solar plants in four states in the Southeast U.S

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tisza, Kata

Photovoltaic (PV) development shows significantly smaller growth in the Southeast U.S., than in the Southwest; which is mainly due to the low cost of fossil-fuel based energy production in the region and the lack of solar incentives. However, the Southeast has appropriate insolation conditions (4.0-6.0 KWh/m2/day) for photovoltaic deployment and in the past decade the region has experienced the highest population growth for the entire country. These factors, combined with new renewable energy portfolio policies, could create an opportunity for PV to provide some of the energy that will be required to sustain this growth. The goal of the study was to investigate the potential for PV generation in the Southeast region by identifying suitable areas for a utility-scale solar power plant deployment. Four states with currently low solar penetration were studied: Georgia, North Carolina, South Carolina and Tennessee. Feasible areas were assessed with Geographic Information Systems (GIS) software using solar, land use and population growth criteria combined with proximity to transmission lines and roads. After the GIS-based assessment of the areas, technological potential was calculated for each state. Multi-decision analysis model (MCDA) was used to simulate the decision making method for a strategic PV installation. The model accounted for all criteria necessary to consider in case of a PV development and also included economic and policy criteria, which is thought to be a strong influence on the PV market. Three different scenarios were established, representing decision makers' theoretical preferences. Map layers created in the first part were used as basis for the MCDA and additional technical, economic and political/market criteria were added. A sensitivity analysis was conducted to test the model's robustness. Finally, weighted criteria were assigned to the GIS map layers, so that the different preference systems could be visualized. As a result, lands suitable for a potential industrial-scale PV deployment were assessed. Moreover, a precise calculation for technical potential was conducted, with a capacity factor determined by the actual insolation of the sum of each specific feasible area. The results of the study showed that, for a utility-scale PV utility deployment, significant amount of feasible areas are available, with good electricity generation potential Moreover, a stable MCDA model was established for supporting strategic decision making in a PV deployment. Also, changes of suitable lands for utility-scale PV installations were visualized in GIS for the state of Tennessee.
The application of the heuristic-systematic processing model to treatment decision making about prostate cancer.

PubMed

Steginga, Suzanne K; Occhipinti, Stefano

2004-01-01

The study investigated the utility of the Heuristic-Systematic Processing Model as a framework for the investigation of patient decision making. A total of 111 men recently diagnosed with localized prostate cancer were assessed using Verbal Protocol Analysis and self-report measures. Study variables included men's use of nonsystematic and systematic information processing, desire for involvement in decision making, and the individual differences of health locus of control, tolerance of ambiguity, and decision-related uncertainty. Most men (68%) preferred that decision making be shared equally between them and their doctor. Men's use of the expert opinion heuristic was related to men's verbal reports of decisional uncertainty and having a positive orientation to their doctor and medical care; a desire for greater involvement in decision making was predicted by a high internal locus of health control. Trends were observed for systematic information processing to increase when the heuristic strategy used was negatively affect laden and when men were uncertain about the probabilities for cure and side effects. There was a trend for decreased systematic processing when the expert opinion heuristic was used. Findings were consistent with the Heuristic-Systematic Processing Model and suggest that this model has utility for future research in applied decision making about health.
Colorectal cancer patients’ attitudes towards involvement in decision making

PubMed Central

Beaver, Kinta; Campbell, Malcolm; Craven, Olive; Jones, David; Luker, Karen A.; Susnerwala, Shabbir S.

2009-01-01

Abstract Objectives To design and administer an attitude rating scale, exploring colorectal cancer patients’ views of involvement in decision making. To examine the impact of socio‐demographic and/or treatment‐related factors on decision making. To conduct principal components analysis to determine if the scale could be simplified into a number of factors for future clinical utility. Methods An attitude rating scale was constructed based on previous qualitative work and administered to colorectal cancer patients using a cross‐sectional survey approach. Results 375 questionnaires were returned (81.7% response). For patients it was important to be informed and involved in the decision‐making process. Information was not always used to make decisions as patients placed their trust in medical expertise. Women had more positive opinions on decision making and were more likely to want to make decisions. Written information was understood to a greater degree than verbal information. The scale could be simplified to a number of factors, indicating clinical utility. Conclusion Few studies have explored the attitudes of colorectal cancer patients towards involvement in decision making. This study presents new insights into how patients view the concept of participation; important when considering current policy imperatives in the UK of involving service users in all aspects of care and treatment. PMID:19250150
The Economic Impact of Closed-Incision Negative-Pressure Therapy in High-Risk Abdominal Incisions: A Cost-Utility Analysis.

PubMed

Chopra, Karan; Gowda, Arvind U; Morrow, Chris; Holton, Luther; Singh, Devinder P

2016-04-01

Complex abdominal wall reconstruction is beset by postoperative complications. A recent meta-analysis comparing the use of closed-incision negative-pressure therapy to standard dressings found a statistically significant reduction in surgical-site infection. The use of closed-incision negative-pressure therapy is gaining acceptance in this population; however, the economic impact of this innovative dressing remains unknown. In this study, a cost-utility analysis was performed assessing closed-incision negative-pressure therapy and standard dressings following closure of abdominal incisions in high-risk patients. Cost-utility methodology involved reviewing literature related to closed-incision negative-pressure therapy in abdominal wall surgery, obtaining utility estimates to calculate quality-adjusted life-year scores for successful surgery and surgery complicated by surgical-site infection, summing costs using Medicare Current Procedural Terminology codes, and creating a decision tree illuminating the most cost-effective dressing strategy. One-way sensitivity analysis was performed to assess the robustness of the results. The aforementioned meta-analysis comparing closed-incision negative-pressure therapy to standard dressings included a subset of five studies assessing abdominal wall surgery in 829 patients (260 closed-incision negative-pressure therapy and 569 standard dressings). Decision tree analysis revealed an estimated savings of $1546.52 and a gain of 0.0024 quality-adjusted life-year with closed-incision negative-pressure therapy compared with standard dressings; therefore, closed-incision negative-pressure therapy is a dominant treatment strategy. One-way sensitivity analysis revealed that closed-incision negative-pressure therapy is a cost-effective option when the surgical-site infection rate is greater than 16.39 percent. The use of closed-incision negative-pressure therapy is cost-saving following closure of abdominal incisions in high-risk patients.
Network meta-analysis: an introduction for pharmacists.

PubMed

Xu, Yina; Amiche, Mohamed Amine; Tadrous, Mina

2018-05-21

Network meta-analysis is a new tool used to summarize and compare studies for multiple interventions, irrespective of whether these interventions have been directly evaluated against each other. Network meta-analysis is quickly becoming the standard in conducting therapeutic reviews and clinical guideline development. However, little guidance is available to help pharmacists review network meta-analysis studies in their practice. Major institutions such as the Cochrane Collaboration, Agency for Healthcare Research and Quality, Canadian Agency for Drugs and Technologies in Health, and National Institute for Health and Care Excellence Decision Support Unit have endorsed utilizing network meta-analysis to establish therapeutic evidence and inform decision making. Our objective is to introduce this novel technique to pharmacy practitioners, and highlight key assumptions behind network meta-analysis studies.
Seeing the forests and the trees—innovative approaches to exploring heterogeneity in systematic reviews of complex interventions to enhance health system decision-making: a protocol

PubMed Central

2014-01-01

Background To improve quality of care and patient outcomes, health system decision-makers need to identify and implement effective interventions. An increasing number of systematic reviews document the effects of quality improvement programs to assist decision-makers in developing new initiatives. However, limitations in the reporting of primary studies and current meta-analysis methods (including approaches for exploring heterogeneity) reduce the utility of existing syntheses for health system decision-makers. This study will explore the role of innovative meta-analysis approaches and the added value of enriched and updated data for increasing the utility of systematic reviews of complex interventions. Methods/Design We will use the dataset from our recent systematic review of 142 randomized trials of diabetes quality improvement programs to evaluate novel approaches for exploring heterogeneity. These will include exploratory methods, such as multivariate meta-regression analyses and all-subsets combinatorial meta-analysis. We will then update our systematic review to include new trials and enrich the dataset by surveying authors of all included trials. In doing so, we will explore the impact of variables not, reported in previous publications, such as details of study context, on the effectiveness of the intervention. We will use innovative analytical methods on the enriched and updated dataset to identify key success factors in the implementation of quality improvement interventions for diabetes. Decision-makers will be involved throughout to help identify and prioritize variables to be explored and to aid in the interpretation and dissemination of results. Discussion This study will inform future systematic reviews of complex interventions and describe the value of enriching and updating data for exploring heterogeneity in meta-analysis. It will also result in an updated comprehensive systematic review of diabetes quality improvement interventions that will be useful to health system decision-makers in developing interventions to improve outcomes for people with diabetes. Systematic review registration PROSPERO registration no. CRD42013005165 PMID:25115289
The clinical utility index as a practical multiattribute approach to drug development decisions.

PubMed

Poland, B; Hodge, F L; Khan, A; Clemen, R T; Wagner, J A; Dykstra, K; Krishna, R

2009-07-01

We identify some innovative approaches to predicting overall patient benefit from investigational drugs to support development decisions. We then illustrate calculation of a probabilistic clinical utility index (CUI), an implementation of multiattribute utility that focuses on clinical attributes. We recommend use of the CUI for the support of early drug development decisions because of its practicality, reasonable accuracy, and transparency to decision makers, at stages in which financial factors that may dominate later-phase decisions are less critical.
Simultaneous Optimization of Decisions Using a Linear Utility Function.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Vos, Hans J.

1990-01-01

An approach is presented to simultaneously optimize decision rules for combinations of elementary decisions through a framework derived from Bayesian decision theory. The developed linear utility model for selection-mastery decisions was applied to a sample of 43 first year medical students to illustrate the procedure. (SLD)
Identification of metrics to monitor salt marsh integrity on National Wildlife Refuges in relation to conservation and management objectives

USGS Publications Warehouse

Neckles, Hilary A.; Guntenspergen, Glenn R.; Shriver, W. George; Danz, Nicholas P.; Wiest, Whitney A.; Nagel, Jessica L.; Olker, Jennifer H.

2013-01-01

Implementation of these metrics for quantitative assessment of NWRS salt marsh integrity in FWS Region 5 requires developing sampling designs for each refuge. Additionally, it is important to determine how the monitoring information will be used within a management context. SDM should be used to complete the analysis of salt marsh management decisions. The next steps would involve 1) prioritizing and weighting the management objectives; 2) predicting responses to individual management actions in terms of objectives and metrics; 3) using multiattribute utility theory to convert all measurable attributes to a common utility scale; 4) determining the total management benefit of each action by summing utilities across objectives; and 5) maximizing the total management benefits within cost constraints for each refuge. This process would allow the optimum management decisions for NWRS salt marshes to be selected and implemented based directly on monitoring data and current understanding of marsh responses to management actions. Monitoring the outcome of management actions would then allow new monitoring data to be incorporated into subsequent decisions.
Impact of axillary ultrasound and core needle biopsy on the utility of intraoperative frozen section analysis and treatment decision making in women with invasive breast cancer.

PubMed

Caretta-Weyer, Holly; Sisney, Gale A; Beckman, Catherine; Burnside, Elizabeth S; Salkowsi, Lonie R; Strigel, Roberta M; Wilke, Lee G; Neuman, Heather B

2012-09-01

Our objective was to evaluate the impact of preoperative axillary ultrasound and core needle biopsy (CNB) on breast cancer treatment decision making. A secondary aim was to evaluate the impact on the utility of intraoperative sentinel lymph node (SLN) frozen section. A review of 84 patients with clinically negative axilla who underwent axillary ultrasound was performed. Sensitivity, specificity, and positive/negative predictive value for axillary ultrasound with CNB was calculated. Thirty-one (37%) had suspicious nodes. Of 27 amenable to CNB, 12 (14%) were malignant, changing treatment plans. The sensitivity of ultrasound and CNB was 54% and specificity 100%; the positive and negative predictive values were 100% and 80%, respectively. In 41 patients with normal ultrasounds who underwent SLN frozen section, 10 (24%) were positive. Preoperative axillary ultrasound impacts treatment decision making in 14%. With a sensitivity of 54%, it is a useful adjunct to, but not replacement for, SLN biopsy. Frozen section remains of utility even after a negative axillary ultrasound. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Beyond utilitarianism: a method for analyzing competing ethical principles in a decision analysis of liver transplantation.

PubMed

Volk, Michael L; Lok, Anna S F; Ubel, Peter A; Vijan, Sandeep

2008-01-01

The utilitarian foundation of decision analysis limits its usefulness for many social policy decisions. In this study, the authors examine a method to incorporate competing ethical principles in a decision analysis of liver transplantation for a patient with acute liver failure (ALF). A Markov model was constructed to compare the benefit of transplantation for a patient with ALF versus the harm caused to other patients on the waiting list and to determine the lowest acceptable 5-y posttransplant survival for the ALF patient. The weighting of the ALF patient and other patients was then adjusted using a multiattribute variable incorporating utilitarianism, urgency, and other principles such as fair chances. In the base-case analysis, the strategy of transplanting the ALF patient resulted in a 0.8% increase in the risk of death and a utility loss of 7.8 quality-adjusted days of life for each of the other patients on the waiting list. These harms cumulatively outweighed the benefit of transplantation for an ALF patient having a posttransplant survival of less than 48% at 5 y. However, the threshold for an acceptable posttransplant survival for the ALF patient ranged from 25% to 56% at 5 y, depending on the ethical principles involved. The results of the decision analysis vary depending on the ethical perspective. This study demonstrates how competing ethical principles can be numerically incorporated in a decision analysis.
Couples' reports of household decision-making and the utilization of maternal health services in Bangladesh.

PubMed

Story, William T; Burgard, Sarah A

2012-12-01

This study examines the association between maternal health service utilization and household decision-making in Bangladesh. Most studies of the predictors of reproductive health service utilization focus on women's reports; however, men are often involved in these decisions as well. Recently, studies have started to explore the association between health outcomes and reports of household decision-making from both husbands and wives as matched pairs. Many studies of household decision-making emphasize the importance of the wife alone making decisions; however, some have argued that joint decision-making between husbands and wives may yield better reproductive health outcomes than women making decisions without input or agreement from their partners. Husbands' involvement in decision-making is particularly important in Bangladesh because men often dominate household decisions related to large, health-related purchases. We use matched husband and wife reports about who makes common household decisions to predict use of antenatal and skilled delivery care, using data from the 2007 Bangladesh Demographic and Health Survey. Results from regression analyses suggest that it is important to consider whether husbands and wives give concordant responses about who makes household decisions since discordant reports about who makes these decisions are negatively associated with reproductive health care use. In addition, compared to joint decision-making, husband-only decision-making is negatively associated with antenatal care use and skilled delivery care. Finally, associations between household decision-making arrangements and health service utilization vary depending on whose report is used and the type of health service utilized. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
Information systems in ADOT : an analysis of intra-function flow, decision support needs, existing systems utility and user attitudes. Final report, volume 2 : manual for evaluation of needs and attitudes of EDP users

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

1985-03-01

A report is offered on a study of the information activities within the Right-of-Way section of ADOT. The objectives of the study were to adapt and apply techniques to measure user-perceived needs, satisfaction and utility of services provided Right-...
A Search for the tt¯H (H → bb) Large Hadron Collider with the atlas detector using a matrix element method

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Basye, Austin T.

A matrix element method analysis of the Standard Model Higgs boson, produced in association with two top quarks decaying to the lepton-plus-jets channel is presented. Based on 20.3 fb--1 of s=8 TeV data, produced at the Large Hadron Collider and collected by the ATLAS detector, this analysis utilizes multiple advanced techniques to search for ttH signatures with a 125 GeV Higgs boson decaying to two b -quarks. After categorizing selected events based on their jet and b-tag multiplicities, signal rich regions are analyzed using the matrix element method. Resulting variables are then propagated to two parallel multivariate analyses utilizing Neural Networks and Boosted Decision Trees respectively. As no significant excess is found, an observed (expected) limit of 3.4 (2.2) times the Standard Model cross-section is determined at 95% confidence, using the CLs method, for the Neural Network analysis. For the Boosted Decision Tree analysis, an observed (expected) limit of 5.2 (2.7) times the Standard Model cross-section is determined at 95% confidence, using the CLs method. Corresponding unconstrained fits of the Higgs boson signal strength to the observed data result in the measured signal cross-section to Standard Model cross-section prediction of mu = 1.2 +/- 1.3(total) +/- 0.7(stat.) for the Neural Network analysis, and mu = 2.9 +/- 1.4(total) +/- 0.8(stat.) for the Boosted Decision Tree analysis.
Cost-Utility Analysis: Current Methodological Issues and Future Perspectives

PubMed Central

Nuijten, Mark J. C.; Dubois, Dominique J.

2011-01-01

The use of cost–effectiveness as final criterion in the reimbursement process for listing of new pharmaceuticals can be questioned from a scientific and policy point of view. There is a lack of consensus on main methodological issues and consequently we may question the appropriateness of the use of cost–effectiveness data in health care decision-making. Another concern is the appropriateness of the selection and use of an incremental cost–effectiveness threshold (Cost/QALY). In this review, we focus mainly on only some key methodological concerns relating to discounting, the utility concept, cost assessment, and modeling methodologies. Finally we will consider the relevance of some other important decision criteria, like social values and equity. PMID:21713127
Characterizing uncertain sea-level rise projections to support investment decisions.

PubMed

Sriver, Ryan L; Lempert, Robert J; Wikman-Svahn, Per; Keller, Klaus

2018-01-01

Many institutions worldwide are considering how to include uncertainty about future changes in sea-levels and storm surges into their investment decisions regarding large capital infrastructures. Here we examine how to characterize deeply uncertain climate change projections to support such decisions using Robust Decision Making analysis. We address questions regarding how to confront the potential for future changes in low probability but large impact flooding events due to changes in sea-levels and storm surges. Such extreme events can affect investments in infrastructure but have proved difficult to consider in such decisions because of the deep uncertainty surrounding them. This study utilizes Robust Decision Making methods to address two questions applied to investment decisions at the Port of Los Angeles: (1) Under what future conditions would a Port of Los Angeles decision to harden its facilities against extreme flood scenarios at the next upgrade pass a cost-benefit test, and (2) Do sea-level rise projections and other information suggest such conditions are sufficiently likely to justify such an investment? We also compare and contrast the Robust Decision Making methods with a full probabilistic analysis. These two analysis frameworks result in similar investment recommendations for different idealized future sea-level projections, but provide different information to decision makers and envision different types of engagement with stakeholders. In particular, the full probabilistic analysis begins by aggregating the best scientific information into a single set of joint probability distributions, while the Robust Decision Making analysis identifies scenarios where a decision to invest in near-term response to extreme sea-level rise passes a cost-benefit test, and then assembles scientific information of differing levels of confidence to help decision makers judge whether or not these scenarios are sufficiently likely to justify making such investments. Results highlight the highly-localized and context dependent nature of applying Robust Decision Making methods to inform investment decisions.
Characterizing uncertain sea-level rise projections to support investment decisions

PubMed Central

Lempert, Robert J.; Wikman-Svahn, Per; Keller, Klaus

2018-01-01

Many institutions worldwide are considering how to include uncertainty about future changes in sea-levels and storm surges into their investment decisions regarding large capital infrastructures. Here we examine how to characterize deeply uncertain climate change projections to support such decisions using Robust Decision Making analysis. We address questions regarding how to confront the potential for future changes in low probability but large impact flooding events due to changes in sea-levels and storm surges. Such extreme events can affect investments in infrastructure but have proved difficult to consider in such decisions because of the deep uncertainty surrounding them. This study utilizes Robust Decision Making methods to address two questions applied to investment decisions at the Port of Los Angeles: (1) Under what future conditions would a Port of Los Angeles decision to harden its facilities against extreme flood scenarios at the next upgrade pass a cost-benefit test, and (2) Do sea-level rise projections and other information suggest such conditions are sufficiently likely to justify such an investment? We also compare and contrast the Robust Decision Making methods with a full probabilistic analysis. These two analysis frameworks result in similar investment recommendations for different idealized future sea-level projections, but provide different information to decision makers and envision different types of engagement with stakeholders. In particular, the full probabilistic analysis begins by aggregating the best scientific information into a single set of joint probability distributions, while the Robust Decision Making analysis identifies scenarios where a decision to invest in near-term response to extreme sea-level rise passes a cost-benefit test, and then assembles scientific information of differing levels of confidence to help decision makers judge whether or not these scenarios are sufficiently likely to justify making such investments. Results highlight the highly-localized and context dependent nature of applying Robust Decision Making methods to inform investment decisions. PMID:29414978
A hierarchical-multiobjective framework for risk management

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Haimes, Yacov Y.; Li, Duan

1991-01-01

A broad hierarchical-multiobjective framework is established and utilized to methodologically address the management of risk. United into the framework are the hierarchical character of decision-making, the multiple decision-makers at separate levels within the hierarchy, the multiobjective character of large-scale systems, the quantitative/empirical aspects, and the qualitative/normative/judgmental aspects. The methodological components essentially consist of hierarchical-multiobjective coordination, risk of extreme events, and impact analysis. Examples of applications of the framework are presented. It is concluded that complex and interrelated forces require an analysis of trade-offs between engineering analysis and societal preferences, as in the hierarchical-multiobjective framework, to successfully address inherent risk.
The chiller`s role within a utility`s marketing strategy: Using chiller related products and services to win and retain customers. Final report

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

NONE

1998-04-01

Commercial chillers are used in space and industrial process cooling. Approximately 3% of commercial buildings, representing 19% of all commercial floor space, are cooled by chillers. Consequently, every chiller represents significant electric (or gas) consumption. Chillers can comprise as much as 30% of a large office building`s electrical load. The selection decisions (electric versus gas, standard versus high efficiency, thermal storage or no thermal storage, etc.) for a new or replacement chiller will affect the customer`s energy consumption for twenty to thirty years. Consequently, this decision can play a major role in the customer`s relationship with the energy provider. However,more » even though these chiller decisions have a significant impact on the utility, today the utility has limited influence over these decisions. EPRI commissioned this study to develop understanding that will help utilities increase their influence over chiller decisions. To achieve this objective, this study looks at the customer`s behavior -- how they make chiller decisions, how the customer`s behavior and decisions are influenced today, and how these decisions might change in the future due to the impact of deregulation and changes in customer goals. The output of this project includes a list of product and service offerings that utilities and EPRI could offer to increase their influence over chiller decisions.« less
Development and initial evaluation of a treatment decision dashboard

PubMed Central

2013-01-01

Background For many healthcare decisions, multiple alternatives are available with different combinations of advantages and disadvantages across several important dimensions. The complexity of current healthcare decisions thus presents a significant barrier to informed decision making, a key element of patient-centered care. Interactive decision dashboards were developed to facilitate decision making in Management, a field marked by similarly complicated choices. These dashboards utilize data visualization techniques to reduce the cognitive effort needed to evaluate decision alternatives and a non-linear flow of information that enables users to review information in a self-directed fashion. Theoretically, both of these features should facilitate informed decision making by increasing user engagement with and understanding of the decision at hand. We sought to determine if the interactive decision dashboard format can be successfully adapted to create a clinically realistic prototype patient decision aid suitable for further evaluation and refinement. Methods We created a computerized, interactive clinical decision dashboard and performed a pilot test of its clinical feasibility and acceptability using a multi-method analysis. The dashboard summarized information about the effectiveness, risks of side effects and drug-drug interactions, out-of-pocket costs, and ease of use of nine analgesic treatment options for knee osteoarthritis. Outcome evaluations included observations of how study participants utilized the dashboard, questionnaires to assess usability, acceptability, and decisional conflict, and an open-ended qualitative analysis. Results The study sample consisted of 25 volunteers - 7 men and 18 women - with an average age of 51 years. The mean time spent interacting with the dashboard was 4.6 minutes. Mean evaluation scores on scales ranging from 1 (low) to 7 (high) were: mechanical ease of use 6.1, cognitive ease of use 6.2, emotional difficulty 2.7, decision-aiding effectiveness 5.9, clarification of values 6.5, reduction in decisional uncertainty 6.1, and provision of decision-related information 6.0. Qualitative findings were similarly positive. Conclusions Interactive decision dashboards can be adapted for clinical use and have the potential to foster informed decision making. Additional research is warranted to more rigorously test the effectiveness and efficiency of patient decision dashboards for supporting informed decision making and other aspects of patient-centered care, including shared decision making. PMID:23601912
Making the Right Treatment Decision Requires Consideration of Utility and Reconsideration of Value.

PubMed

Rossi, Michael J; Lubowitz, James H; Brand, Jefferson C; Provencher, Matthew T

2017-02-01

To achieve a good clinical outcome, arthroscopic and related surgeons must choose the proper treatment, and the basis of this choice is accurate diagnosis. Generally, our clinical focus is on outcome, but outcome is achieved after the fact. While this seems obvious, arthroscopic and related surgeons-and our patients who participate in shared decision making-evaluate the utility, or usefulness, of potential treatments based on desired and expected benefits versus potential risks. Today, cost is frequently considered as a determinant of value in medicine and may be applied to the decision analysis, but if an individual patient perceives health to be priceless, cost becomes irrelevant. In the end, an individual patient's satisfaction is determined on a case-by-case basis. Proper choice of treatment cannot be formulaic. Copyright © 2016 Arthroscopy Association of North America. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.
Nuclear power for the future: Implications of some crisis scenarios

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Turner, K.H.

1996-12-31

As energy issues have dropped from public awareness, electricity demand growth has remained low, deregulation has destabilized the utility decision process, and least-cost regulation has pointed utilities to gas-fired plants for those additions that are coming on-line, the nuclear power industry has begun to ask the question: What will cause nuclear energy to again compete as an option in new, domestic generating capacity additions? Since virtually all of today`s corporate and societal decisions are driven by short-term factors, the preceding question can be translated into: What crisis might occur that would project nuclear as the solution to an immediately perceivedmore » problem? Thus, an examination of scenarios that would project nuclear power into the country`s immediate consciousness is in order, along with an analysis of the implications for and challenges to the nuclear industry resulting therefrom. This paper undertakes such an analysis.« less
Towards Actionable Waterborne and Vector-borne Disease Forecasts

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zaitchik, B. F.

2015-12-01

Numerous studies have shown that remote sensing (RS) and Earth System Models (ESM) can make important contributions to the analysis, monitoring and prediction of waterborne and vector-borne illnesses. Unsurprisingly, however, the great majority of these studies have been proof-of-concept investigations, and vanishingly few have been translated into operational and utilized disease early warning systems. To some extent this is simply an example of the general challenge of translating research findings into decision-relevant operations. Disease early warning, however, entails specific challenges that distinguish it from many other fields of environmental monitoring and prediction. Some of these challenges stem from predictability and data constraints, while others relate to the difficulty of communicating predictions and the particularly high price of false alarms. This presentation will review progress on the translation of analysis to decision making, identify avenues for enhancing forecast utility, and propose priorities for future RS and ESM investments in disease monitoring and prediction.
Decision-making when data and inferences are not conclusive: risk-benefit and acceptable regret approach.

PubMed

Hozo, Iztok; Schell, Michael J; Djulbegovic, Benjamin

2008-07-01

The absolute truth in research is unobtainable, as no evidence or research hypothesis is ever 100% conclusive. Therefore, all data and inferences can in principle be considered as "inconclusive." Scientific inference and decision-making need to take into account errors, which are unavoidable in the research enterprise. The errors can occur at the level of conclusions that aim to discern the truthfulness of research hypothesis based on the accuracy of research evidence and hypothesis, and decisions, the goal of which is to enable optimal decision-making under present and specific circumstances. To optimize the chance of both correct conclusions and correct decisions, the synthesis of all major statistical approaches to clinical research is needed. The integration of these approaches (frequentist, Bayesian, and decision-analytic) can be accomplished through formal risk:benefit (R:B) analysis. This chapter illustrates the rational choice of a research hypothesis using R:B analysis based on decision-theoretic expected utility theory framework and the concept of "acceptable regret" to calculate the threshold probability of the "truth" above which the benefit of accepting a research hypothesis outweighs its risks.
Life expectancy calculation in urology: Are we equitably treating older patients?

PubMed

Bhatt, Nikita R; Davis, Niall F; Breen, Kieran; Flood, Hugh D; Giri, Subhasis K

2017-01-01

The aim of our study was to determine the contemporary practice in the utilization of life expectancy (LE) calculations among urological clinicians. Members of the Irish Society of Urology (ISU) and the British Association of Urological Surgeons (BAUS) completed a questionnaire on LE utilization in urological practice. The survey was delivered to 1251 clinicians and the response rate was 17% (n = 208/1251). The majority (61%, n = 127) of urologists were aware of methods available for estimated LE calculation.Seventy-one percent (n = 148) had never utilized LE analysis in clinical practice and 81% (n = 170) routinely used 'eyeballing' (empiric prediction) for estimating LE. Life expectancy tables were utilized infrequently (12%, n = 25) in making the decision for treatment in the setting of multi-disciplinary meetings. LE is poorly integrated into treatment decision-making; not only for the management of urological patients but also in the multidisciplinary setting. Further education and awareness regarding the importance of LE is vital.
Quality of life assessment software for computer-inexperienced older adults: multimedia utility elicitation for activities of daily living.

PubMed Central

Goldstein, M. K.; Miller, D. E.; Davies, S.; Garber, A. M.

2002-01-01

Functional status as measured by dependencies in the Activities of Daily Living (ADLs) is an important indicator of overall health for older adults. Methodologies for outcomes-based medical-decision-making for public policy, such as decision modeling and cost-effectiveness analysis, require utilities for outcome health states. Utilities have been reported for many disease states, but have not been indexed by functional status, which is a strong predictor of outcome in geriatrics. We describe here a utility elicitation program developed specifically for use with computer-inexperienced older adults: Functional Limitation And Independence Rating (FLAIR1). FLAIR1 design features address common physical problems of the aged and computer attitudes of inexperienced users that could impede computer acceptance. We interviewed 400 adults ages 65 years and older with FLAIR1. In exit interviews with 154 respondents, 118 (76%) found FLAIR1 easy to use. Design features in FLAIR1 can be applied to other software for older adults PMID:12463834
Non-Simultaneous Relative Importance-Performance Analysis: Meta-Results from 80 College Choice Surveys with 55,276 Respondents.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Chapman, Randall G.

1993-01-01

A study investigated the utility of importance-performance analysis, a marketing tool for assessing marketing position and performance, in learning how college applicants perceive their chosen college in comparison with others. Findings reflect the complexity of student decisions and suggest the "average" college performs above average…
Modeling Choice Under Uncertainty in Military Systems Analysis

DTIC Science & Technology

1991-11-01

operators rather than fuzzy operators. This is suggested for further research. 4.3 ANALYTIC HIERARCHICAL PROCESS ( AHP ) In AHP , objectives, functions and...14 4.1 IMPRECISELY SPECIFIED MULTIPLE A’ITRIBUTE UTILITY THEORY... 14 4.2 FUZZY DECISION ANALYSIS...14 4.3 ANALYTIC HIERARCHICAL PROCESS ( AHP ) ................................... 14 4.4 SUBJECTIVE TRANSFER FUNCTION APPROACH
Efficiency Analysis: Enhancing the Statistical and Evaluative Power of the Regression-Discontinuity Design.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Madhere, Serge

An analytic procedure, efficiency analysis, is proposed for improving the utility of quantitative program evaluation for decision making. The three features of the procedure are explained: (1) for statistical control, it adopts and extends the regression-discontinuity design; (2) for statistical inferences, it de-emphasizes hypothesis testing in…
Beyond expected utility: rethinking behavioral decision research.

PubMed

Frisch, D; Clemen, R T

1994-07-01

Much research in psychology has evaluated the quality of people's decisions by comparisons with subjective expected utility (SEU) theory. This article suggests that typical arguments made for the status of utility theory as normative do not justify its use by psychologists as a standard by which to evaluate decision quality. It is argued that to evaluate decision quality, researchers need to identify those decision processes that tend to lead to desirable outcomes. It is contended that a good decision-making process must be concerned with how (and whether) decision makers evaluate potential consequences of decisions, the extent to which they accurately identify all relevant consequences, and the way in which they make final choices. Research that bears on these issues is reviewed.

A decision-support system for the analysis of clinical practice patterns.

PubMed

Balas, E A; Li, Z R; Mitchell, J A; Spencer, D C; Brent, E; Ewigman, B G

1994-01-01

Several studies documented substantial variation in medical practice patterns, but physicians often do not have adequate information on the cumulative clinical and financial effects of their decisions. The purpose of developing an expert system for the analysis of clinical practice patterns was to assist providers in analyzing and improving the process and outcome of patient care. The developed QFES (Quality Feedback Expert System) helps users in the definition and evaluation of measurable quality improvement objectives. Based on objectives and actual clinical data, several measures can be calculated (utilization of procedures, annualized cost effect of using a particular procedure, and expected utilization based on peer-comparison and case-mix adjustment). The quality management rules help to detect important discrepancies among members of the selected provider group and compare performance with objectives. The system incorporates a variety of data and knowledge bases: (i) clinical data on actual practice patterns, (ii) frames of quality parameters derived from clinical practice guidelines, and (iii) rules of quality management for data analysis. An analysis of practice patterns of 12 family physicians in the management of urinary tract infections illustrates the use of the system.
A Theory of Utility Conditionals: Paralogical Reasoning from Decision-Theoretic Leakage

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Bonnefon, Jean-Francois

2009-01-01

Many "if p, then q" conditionals have decision-theoretic features, such as antecedents or consequents that relate to the utility functions of various agents. These decision-theoretic features leak into reasoning processes, resulting in various paralogical conclusions. The theory of utility conditionals offers a unified account of the various forms…
[Decisions in case of "problematic" cost-effectiveness ratios based on the example of a clinical trial in rehabilitation care].

PubMed

Leidl, R; Jacobi, E; Knab, J; Schweikert, B

2006-04-01

Economic assessment of an additional psychological intervention in the rehabilitation of patients with chronic low-back pain and evaluation of results by decision makers. Piggy-back cost-utility analysis of a randomised clinical trial, including a bootstrap analysis. Costs were measured by using the cost accounting systems of the rehabilitation clinics and by surveying patients. Health-related quality of life was measured using the EQ-5D. Implications of different representations of the decision problem and corresponding decision rules concerning the cost-effectiveness plane are discussed. As compared with the 126 patients of the control arm, the 98 patients in the intervention arm gained 3.5 days in perfect health on average as well as 1219 euro cost saving. However, because of the uncertainty involved, the results of a bootstrap analysis cover all quadrants of the cost-effectiveness plane. Using maximum willingness-to-pay per effect unit gained, decision rules can be defined for parts of the cost-effectiveness plane. These have to be aggregated in a further valuation step. Study results show that decisions on stochastic economic evaluation results may require an additional valuation step aggregating the various parts of the cost-effectiveness plane.
Building the Evidence Base for Decision-making in Cancer Genomic Medicine Using Comparative Effectiveness Research

PubMed Central

Goddard, Katrina A.B.; Knaus, William A.; Whitlock, Evelyn; Lyman, Gary H.; Feigelson, Heather Spencer; Schully, Sheri D.; Ramsey, Scott; Tunis, Sean; Freedman, Andrew N.; Khoury, Muin J.; Veenstra, David L.

2013-01-01

Background The clinical utility is uncertain for many cancer genomic applications. Comparative effectiveness research (CER) can provide evidence to clarify this uncertainty. Objectives To identify approaches to help stakeholders make evidence-based decisions, and to describe potential challenges and opportunities using CER to produce evidence-based guidance. Methods We identified general CER approaches for genomic applications through literature review, the authors’ experiences, and lessons learned from a recent, seven-site CER initiative in cancer genomic medicine. Case studies illustrate the use of CER approaches. Results Evidence generation and synthesis approaches include comparative observational and randomized trials, patient reported outcomes, decision modeling, and economic analysis. We identified significant challenges to conducting CER in cancer genomics: the rapid pace of innovation, the lack of regulation, the limited evidence for clinical utility, and the beliefs that genomic tests could have personal utility without having clinical utility. Opportunities to capitalize on CER methods in cancer genomics include improvements in the conduct of evidence synthesis, stakeholder engagement, increasing the number of comparative studies, and developing approaches to inform clinical guidelines and research prioritization. Conclusions CER offers a variety of methodological approaches to address stakeholders’ needs. Innovative approaches are needed to ensure an effective translation of genomic discoveries. PMID:22516979
Research on probabilistic information processing

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Edwards, W.

1973-01-01

The work accomplished on probabilistic information processing (PIP) is reported. The research proposals and decision analysis are discussed along with the results of research on MSC setting, multiattribute utilities, and Bayesian research. Abstracts of reports concerning the PIP research are included.
The utility of an online diagnostic decision support system (Isabel) in general practice: a process evaluation.

PubMed

Henderson, Emily J; Rubin, Greg P

2013-05-01

To evaluate the utility of Isabel, an online diagnostic decision support system developed by Isabel Healthcare primarily for secondary medical care, in the general practice setting. Focus groups were conducted with clinicians to understand why and how they used the system. A modified online post-use survey asked practitioners about its impact on their decision-making. Normalization process theory (NPT) was used as a theoretical framework to determine whether the system could be incorporated into routine clinical practice. The system was introduced by NHS County Durham and Darlington in the UK in selected general practices as a three-month pilot. General practitioners and nurse practitioners who had access to Isabel as part of the Primary Care Trust's pilot. General practitioners' views, experiences and usage of the system. Seven general practices agreed to pilot Isabel. Two practices did not subsequently use it. The remaining five practices conducted searches on 16 patients. Post-use surveys (n = 10) indicated that Isabel had little impact on diagnostic decision-making. Focus group participants stated that, although the diagnoses produced by Isabel in general did not have an impact on their decision-making, they would find the tool useful if it were better tailored to the primary care setting. Our analysis concluded that normalization was not likely to occur in its current form. Isabel was of limited utility in this short pilot study and may need further modification for use in general practice.
Characterizing Decision-Analysis Performances of Risk Prediction Models Using ADAPT Curves.

PubMed

Lee, Wen-Chung; Wu, Yun-Chun

2016-01-01

The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve is a widely used index to characterize the performance of diagnostic tests and prediction models. However, the index does not explicitly acknowledge the utilities of risk predictions. Moreover, for most clinical settings, what counts is whether a prediction model can guide therapeutic decisions in a way that improves patient outcomes, rather than to simply update probabilities.Based on decision theory, the authors propose an alternative index, the "average deviation about the probability threshold" (ADAPT).An ADAPT curve (a plot of ADAPT value against the probability threshold) neatly characterizes the decision-analysis performances of a risk prediction model.Several prediction models can be compared for their ADAPT values at a chosen probability threshold, for a range of plausible threshold values, or for the whole ADAPT curves. This should greatly facilitate the selection of diagnostic tests and prediction models.
Quick Fix for Managing Risks

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

2002-01-01

Under a Phase II SBIR contract, Kennedy and Lumina Decision Systems, Inc., jointly developed the Schedule and Cost Risk Analysis Modeling (SCRAM) system, based on a version of Lumina's flagship software product, Analytica(R). Acclaimed as "the best single decision-analysis program yet produced" by MacWorld magazine, Analytica is a "visual" tool used in decision-making environments worldwide to build, revise, and present business models, minus the time-consuming difficulty commonly associated with spreadsheets. With Analytica as their platform, Kennedy and Lumina created the SCRAM system in response to NASA's need to identify the importance of major delays in Shuttle ground processing, a critical function in project management and process improvement. As part of the SCRAM development project, Lumina designed a version of Analytica called the Analytica Design Engine (ADE) that can be easily incorporated into larger software systems. ADE was commercialized and utilized in many other developments, including web-based decision support.
Linking data to decision-making: applying qualitative data analysis methods and software to identify mechanisms for using outcomes data.

PubMed

Patel, Vaishali N; Riley, Anne W

2007-10-01

A multiple case study was conducted to examine how staff in child out-of-home care programs used data from an Outcomes Management System (OMS) and other sources to inform decision-making. Data collection consisted of thirty-seven semi-structured interviews with clinicians, managers, and directors from two treatment foster care programs and two residential treatment centers, and individuals involved with developing the OMS; and observations of clinical and quality management meetings. Case study and grounded theory methodology guided analyses. The application of qualitative data analysis software is described. Results show that although staff rarely used data from the OMS, they did rely on other sources of systematically collected information to inform clinical, quality management, and program decisions. Analyses of how staff used these data suggest that improving the utility of OMS will involve encouraging staff to participate in data-based decision-making, and designing and implementing OMS in a manner that reflects how decision-making processes operate.
Individual Differences in Subjective Utility and Risk Preferences: The Influence of Hedonic Capacity and Trait Anxiety

PubMed Central

Howlett, Jonathon R.; Paulus, Martin P.

2017-01-01

Individual differences in decision-making are important in both normal populations and psychiatric conditions. Variability in decision-making could be mediated by different subjective utilities or by other processes. For example, while traditional economic accounts attribute risk aversion to a concave subjective utility curve, in practice other factors could affect risk behavior. This distinction may have important implications for understanding the biological basis of variability in decision-making and for developing interventions to improve decision-making. Another aspect of decision-making that may vary between individuals is the sensitivity of subjective utility to counterfactual outcomes (outcomes that could have occurred, but did not). We investigated decision-making in relation to hedonic capacity and trait anxiety, two traits that relate to psychiatric conditions but also vary in the general population. Subjects performed a decision-making task, in which they chose between low- and high-risk gambles to win 0, 20, or 40 points on each trial. Subjects then rated satisfaction after each outcome on a visual analog scale, indicating subjective utility. Hedonic capacity was positively associated with the subjective utility of winning 20 points but was not associated with the concavity of the subjective utility curve (constructed using the mean subjective utility of winning 0, 20, or 40 points). Consistent with economic theory, concavity of the subjective utility curve was associated with risk aversion. Hedonic capacity was independently associated with risk seeking (i.e., not mediated by the shape of the subjective utility curve), while trait anxiety was unrelated to risk preferences. Contrary to our expectations, counterfactual sensitivity was unrelated to hedonic capacity and trait anxiety. Nevertheless, trait anxiety was associated with a self-report measure of regret-proneness, suggesting that counterfactual influences may occur via a pathway that is separate from immediate counterfactual processing biases. Taken together, our results show that hedonic capacity but not trait anxiety affects risk-taking through a mechanism that appears independent of the shape of the subjective utility curve, while hedonic capacity and trait anxiety do not affect the influence of counterfactual outcomes on subjective utility. The results have implications for understanding the underlying mechanisms of variable decision-making and for developing interventions to improve decision-making. PMID:28588508
Individual Differences in Subjective Utility and Risk Preferences: The Influence of Hedonic Capacity and Trait Anxiety.

PubMed

Howlett, Jonathon R; Paulus, Martin P

2017-01-01

Individual differences in decision-making are important in both normal populations and psychiatric conditions. Variability in decision-making could be mediated by different subjective utilities or by other processes. For example, while traditional economic accounts attribute risk aversion to a concave subjective utility curve, in practice other factors could affect risk behavior. This distinction may have important implications for understanding the biological basis of variability in decision-making and for developing interventions to improve decision-making. Another aspect of decision-making that may vary between individuals is the sensitivity of subjective utility to counterfactual outcomes (outcomes that could have occurred, but did not). We investigated decision-making in relation to hedonic capacity and trait anxiety, two traits that relate to psychiatric conditions but also vary in the general population. Subjects performed a decision-making task, in which they chose between low- and high-risk gambles to win 0, 20, or 40 points on each trial. Subjects then rated satisfaction after each outcome on a visual analog scale, indicating subjective utility. Hedonic capacity was positively associated with the subjective utility of winning 20 points but was not associated with the concavity of the subjective utility curve (constructed using the mean subjective utility of winning 0, 20, or 40 points). Consistent with economic theory, concavity of the subjective utility curve was associated with risk aversion. Hedonic capacity was independently associated with risk seeking (i.e., not mediated by the shape of the subjective utility curve), while trait anxiety was unrelated to risk preferences. Contrary to our expectations, counterfactual sensitivity was unrelated to hedonic capacity and trait anxiety. Nevertheless, trait anxiety was associated with a self-report measure of regret-proneness, suggesting that counterfactual influences may occur via a pathway that is separate from immediate counterfactual processing biases. Taken together, our results show that hedonic capacity but not trait anxiety affects risk-taking through a mechanism that appears independent of the shape of the subjective utility curve, while hedonic capacity and trait anxiety do not affect the influence of counterfactual outcomes on subjective utility. The results have implications for understanding the underlying mechanisms of variable decision-making and for developing interventions to improve decision-making.
Accuracy of intuition in clinical decision-making among novice clinicians.

PubMed

Price, Amanda; Zulkosky, Kristen; White, Krista; Pretz, Jean

2017-05-01

To assess the reliance on intuitive and analytical approaches during clinical decision-making among novice clinicians and whether that reliance is associated with accurate decision-making. Nurse educators and managers tend to emphasize analysis over intuition during clinical decision-making though nurses typically report some reliance on intuition in their practice. We hypothesized that under certain conditions, reliance on intuition would support accurate decision-making, even among novices. This study utilized an experimental design with clinical complication (familiar vs. novel) and decision phase (cue acquisition, diagnosis and action) as within-subjects' factors, and simulation role (observer, family, auxiliary nurse and primary nurse) as between-subjects' factor. We examined clinical decision-making accuracy among final semester pre-licensure nursing students in a simulation experience. Students recorded their reasoning about emerging clinical complications with their patient during two distinct points in the simulation; one point involved a familiar complication and the other a relatively novel complication. All data were collected during Spring 2015. Although most participants relied more heavily on analysis than on intuition, use of intuition during the familiar complication was associated with more accurate decision-making, particularly in guiding attention to relevant cues. With the novel complication, use of intuition appeared to hamper decision-making, particularly for those in an observer role. Novice clinicians should be supported by educators and nurse managers to note when their intuitions are likely to be valid. Our findings emphasize the integrated nature of intuition and analysis in clinical decision-making. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.
Measuring Road Network Vulnerability with Sensitivity Analysis

PubMed Central

Jun-qiang, Leng; Long-hai, Yang; Liu, Wei-yi; Zhao, Lin

2017-01-01

This paper focuses on the development of a method for road network vulnerability analysis, from the perspective of capacity degradation, which seeks to identify the critical infrastructures in the road network and the operational performance of the whole traffic system. This research involves defining the traffic utility index and modeling vulnerability of road segment, route, OD (Origin Destination) pair and road network. Meanwhile, sensitivity analysis method is utilized to calculate the change of traffic utility index due to capacity degradation. This method, compared to traditional traffic assignment, can improve calculation efficiency and make the application of vulnerability analysis to large actual road network possible. Finally, all the above models and calculation method is applied to actual road network evaluation to verify its efficiency and utility. This approach can be used as a decision-supporting tool for evaluating the performance of road network and identifying critical infrastructures in transportation planning and management, especially in the resource allocation for mitigation and recovery. PMID:28125706
Service users' experiences of participation in decision making in mental health services.

PubMed

Dahlqvist Jönsson, P; Schön, U-K; Rosenberg, D; Sandlund, M; Svedberg, P

2015-11-01

Despite the potential positive impact of shared decision making on service users knowledge and experience of decisional conflict, there is a lack of qualitative research on how participation in decision making is promoted from the perspective of psychiatric service users. This study highlights the desire of users to participate more actively in decision making and demonstrates that persons with SMI struggle to be seen as competent and equal partners in decision-making situations. Those interviewed did not feel that their strengths, abilities and needs were being recognized, which resulted in a feeling of being omitted from involvement in decision-making situations. The service users describe some essential conditions that could work to promote participation in decision making. These included having personal support, having access to knowledge, being involved in a dialogue and clarity about responsibilities. Mental health nurses can play an essential role for developing and implementing shared decision making as a tool to promote recovery-oriented mental health services. Service user participation in decision making is considered an essential component of recovery-oriented mental health services. Despite the potential of shared decision making to impact service users knowledge and positively influence their experience of decisional conflict, there is a lack of qualitative research on how participation in decision making is promoted from the perspective of psychiatric service users. In order to develop concrete methods that facilitate shared decision making, there is a need for increased knowledge regarding the users' own perspective. The aim of this study was to explore users' experiences of participation in decisions in mental health services in Sweden, and the kinds of support that may promote participation. Constructivist Grounded Theory (CGT) was utilized to analyse group and individual interviews with 20 users with experience of serious mental illness. The core category that emerged in the analysis described a 'struggle to be perceived as a competent and equal person' while three related categories including being the underdog, being controlled and being omitted described the difficulties of participating in decisions. The data analysis resulted in a model that describes internal and external conditions that influence the promotion of participation in decision making. The findings offer new insights from a user perspective and these can be utilized to develop and investigate concrete methods in order to promote user's participation in decisions. © 2015 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.
Subjective Expected Utility: A Model of Decision-Making.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Fischoff, Baruch; And Others

1981-01-01

Outlines a model of decision making known to researchers in the field of behavioral decision theory (BDT) as subjective expected utility (SEU). The descriptive and predictive validity of the SEU model, probability and values assessment using SEU, and decision contexts are examined, and a 54-item reference list is provided. (JL)
Cost utility analysis of endoscopic biliary stent in unresectable hilar cholangiocarcinoma: decision analytic modeling approach.

PubMed

Sangchan, Apichat; Chaiyakunapruk, Nathorn; Supakankunti, Siripen; Pugkhem, Ake; Mairiang, Pisaln

2014-01-01

Endoscopic biliary drainage using metal and plastic stent in unresectable hilar cholangiocarcinoma (HCA) is widely used but little is known about their cost-effectiveness. This study evaluated the cost-utility of endoscopic metal and plastic stent drainage in unresectable complex, Bismuth type II-IV, HCA patients. Decision analytic model, Markov model, was used to evaluate cost and quality-adjusted life year (QALY) of endoscopic biliary drainage in unresectable HCA. Costs of treatment and utilities of each Markov state were retrieved from hospital charges and unresectable HCA patients from tertiary care hospital in Thailand, respectively. Transition probabilities were derived from international literature. Base case analyses and sensitivity analyses were performed. Under the base-case analysis, metal stent is more effective but more expensive than plastic stent. An incremental cost per additional QALY gained is 192,650 baht (US$ 6,318). From probabilistic sensitivity analysis, at the willingness to pay threshold of one and three times GDP per capita or 158,000 baht (US$ 5,182) and 474,000 baht (US$ 15,546), the probability of metal stent being cost-effective is 26.4% and 99.8%, respectively. Based on the WHO recommendation regarding the cost-effectiveness threshold criteria, endoscopic metal stent drainage is cost-effective compared to plastic stent in unresectable complex HCA.
From conditional oughts to qualitative decision theory

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Pearl, Judea

1994-01-01

The primary theme of this investigation is a decision theoretic account of conditional ought statements (e.g., 'You ought to do A, if C') that rectifies glaring deficiencies in classical deontic logic. The resulting account forms a sound basis for qualitative decision theory, thus providing a framework for qualitative planning under uncertainty. In particular, we show that adding causal relationships (in the form of a single graph) as part of an epistemic state is sufficient to facilitate the analysis of action sequences, their consequences, their interaction with observations, their expected utilities, and the synthesis of plans and strategies under uncertainty.
Outsourcing decision factors in publicly owned electric utilities

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gonzales, James Edward

Purpose. The outsourcing of services in publicly owned electric utilities has generated some controversy. The purpose of this study was to explore this controversy by investigating the relationships between eight key independent variables and a dependent variable, "manager perceptions of overall value of outsourced services." The intent was to provide data so that utilities could make better decisions regarding outsourcing efforts. Theoretical framework. Decision theory was used as the framework for analyzing variables and alternatives used to support the outsourcing decision-making process. By reviewing these eight variables and the projected outputs and outcomes, a more predictive and potentially successful outsourcing effort can be realized. Methodology. A survey was distributed to a sample of 323 publicly owned electric utilities randomly selected from a population of 2,020 in the United States. Analysis of the data was made using statistical techniques including the Chi-Square, Lambda, Spearman's coefficient of rank correlation, as well as the Hypothesis Test, Rank Correlation, to test for relationships among the variables. Findings. Relationships among the eight key variables and perceptions of the overall value of outsourced services were generally weak. The notable exception was with the driving force (reason) for outsourcing decisions where the relationship was strongly positive. Conclusions and recommendations. The data in support of the research questions suggest that seven of the eight key variables may be weakly predictive of perceptions of the overall value of outsourced services. However, the primary driving force for outsourcing was strongly predictive. The data also suggest that many of the sampled utilities did not formally address these variables and alternatives, and therefore may not be achieving maximal results. Further studies utilizing customer perceptions rather than those of outsourcing service managers are recommended. In addition, it is recommended that a smaller sample population be analyzed after identifying one or more champions to ensure cooperation and legitimacy of data. Finally, this study supports the position that a manager's ability to identify and understand the relationships between these eight key variables and desired outcomes and outputs may contribute to more successful outsourcing operations.
Explanation of asymmetric dynamics of human water consumption in arid regions: prospect theory versus expected utility theory

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tian, F.; Lu, Y.

2017-12-01

Based on socioeconomic and hydrological data in three arid inland basins and error analysis, the dynamics of human water consumption (HWC) are analyzed to be asymmetric, i.e., HWC increase rapidly in wet periods while maintain or decrease slightly in dry periods. Besides the qualitative analysis that in wet periods great water availability inspires HWC to grow fast but the now expanded economy is managed to sustain by over-exploitation in dry periods, two quantitative models are established and tested, based on expected utility theory (EUT) and prospect theory (PT) respectively. EUT states that humans make decisions based on the total expected utility, namely the sum of utility function multiplied by probability of each result, while PT states that the utility function is defined over gains and losses separately, and probability should be replaced by probability weighting function.
Semiparametric Thurstonian Models for Recurrent Choices: A Bayesian Analysis

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Ansari, Asim; Iyengar, Raghuram

2006-01-01

We develop semiparametric Bayesian Thurstonian models for analyzing repeated choice decisions involving multinomial, multivariate binary or multivariate ordinal data. Our modeling framework has multiple components that together yield considerable flexibility in modeling preference utilities, cross-sectional heterogeneity and parameter-driven…

Stakeholder perspectives on decision-analytic modeling frameworks to assess genetic services policy.

PubMed

Guzauskas, Gregory F; Garrison, Louis P; Stock, Jacquie; Au, Sylvia; Doyle, Debra Lochner; Veenstra, David L

2013-01-01

Genetic services policymakers and insurers often make coverage decisions in the absence of complete evidence of clinical utility and under budget constraints. We evaluated genetic services stakeholder opinions on the potential usefulness of decision-analytic modeling to inform coverage decisions, and asked them to identify genetic tests for decision-analytic modeling studies. We presented an overview of decision-analytic modeling to members of the Western States Genetic Services Collaborative Reimbursement Work Group and state Medicaid representatives and conducted directed content analysis and an anonymous survey to gauge their attitudes toward decision-analytic modeling. Participants also identified and prioritized genetic services for prospective decision-analytic evaluation. Participants expressed dissatisfaction with current processes for evaluating insurance coverage of genetic services. Some participants expressed uncertainty about their comprehension of decision-analytic modeling techniques. All stakeholders reported openness to using decision-analytic modeling for genetic services assessments. Participants were most interested in application of decision-analytic concepts to multiple-disorder testing platforms, such as next-generation sequencing and chromosomal microarray. Decision-analytic modeling approaches may provide a useful decision tool to genetic services stakeholders and Medicaid decision-makers.
National Aeronautics and Space Administration fundamental research program. Information utilization and evaluation

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Estes, J. E.; Eisgruber, L.

1981-01-01

In the second half of the 1980's NASA can expect to face difficult choices among alternative fundamental and applied research, and development projects that could potentially lead to improvements in the information systems used to manage renewable resources. The working group on information utilization and evaluation believes that effective choices cannot be made without a better understanding of the current and prospective problems and opportunities involved in the application of remote sensing to improve renewable research information systems. A renewable resources information system is defined in a broad context to include a flow of data/information from: acquisition through processing, storage, integration with other data, analysis, graphic presentation, decision making, and assessment of the affects of those decisions.
Contribution of suppression difficulty and lessons learned in forecasting fire suppression operations productivity: A methodological approach

Treesearch

Francisco Rodríguez y Silva; Armando González-Cabán

2016-01-01

We propose an economic analysis using utility and productivity, and efficiency theories to provide fire managers a decision support tool to determine the most efficient fire management programs levels. By incorporating managersâ accumulated fire suppression experiences (capitalized experience) in the analysis we help fire managers...
Exploring the Utility of Narrative Analysis in Diagnostic Decision Making: Picture-Bound Reference, Elaboration, and Fetal Alcohol Spectrum Disorders

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Thorne, John C.; Coggins, Truman E.; Olson, Heather Carmichael; Astley, Susan J.

2007-01-01

Purpose: To evaluate classification accuracy and clinical feasibility of a narrative analysis tool for identifying children with a fetal alcohol spectrum disorder (FASD). Method: Picture-elicited narratives generated by 16 age-matched pairs of school-aged children (FASD vs. typical development [TD]) were coded for semantic elaboration and…
An Investigation of Strategic Decision Making in Service Marketing through Case Study Development and Analysis

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Rosetti, Joseph L.; Maceiko, Meghan

2009-01-01

Through the collaborative efforts of an undergraduate student and a professor of marketing, this paper focuses on a case study and corresponding teaching notes developed as a final component of an independent study in service marketing. The case utilizes the hospitality industry as the template for analysis of the appropriateness of marketing…
[Health care reform in the Obama administration: difficulties of reaching a similar agreement in Argentina].

PubMed

Belmartino, Susana

2014-04-01

This article presents a comparative analysis of the processes leading to health care reform in Argentina and in the USA. The core of the analysis centers on the ideological references utilized by advocates of the reform and the decision-making processes that support or undercut such proposals. The analysis begins with a historical summary of the issue in each country. The political process that led to the sanction of the Obama reform is then described. The text defends a hypothesis aiming to show that deficiencies in the institutional capacities of Argentina's decision-making bodies are a severe obstacle to attaining substantial changes in this area within the country.
The predictive validity of prospect theory versus expected utility in health utility measurement.

PubMed

Abellan-Perpiñan, Jose Maria; Bleichrodt, Han; Pinto-Prades, Jose Luis

2009-12-01

Most health care evaluations today still assume expected utility even though the descriptive deficiencies of expected utility are well known. Prospect theory is the dominant descriptive alternative for expected utility. This paper tests whether prospect theory leads to better health evaluations than expected utility. The approach is purely descriptive: we explore how simple measurements together with prospect theory and expected utility predict choices and rankings between more complex stimuli. For decisions involving risk prospect theory is significantly more consistent with rankings and choices than expected utility. This conclusion no longer holds when we use prospect theory utilities and expected utilities to predict intertemporal decisions. The latter finding cautions against the common assumption in health economics that health state utilities are transferable across decision contexts. Our results suggest that the standard gamble and algorithms based on, should not be used to value health.
The cost effectiveness of acellular dermal matrix in expander-implant immediate breast reconstruction.

PubMed

Krishnan, Naveen M; Chatterjee, Abhishek; Rosenkranz, Kari M; Powell, Stephen G; Nigriny, John F; Vidal, Dale C

2014-04-01

Expander-implant breast reconstruction is often supplemented with acellular dermal matrix (ADM). The use of acellular dermal matrix has allowed for faster, less painful expansions and improved aesthetics, but with increased cost. Our goal was to provide the first cost utility analysis of using acellular dermal matrix in two-stage, expander-implant immediate breast reconstruction following mastectomy. A comprehensive literature review was conducted to identify complication rates for two-stage, expander-implant immediate breast reconstruction with and without acellular dermal matrix. The probabilities of the most common complications were combined with Medicare Current Procedural Terminology reimbursement codes and expert utility estimates to fit into a decision model. The decision model evaluated the cost effectiveness of acellular dermal matrix relative to reconstructions without it. Retail costs for ADM were derived from the LifeCell 2012 company catalogue for Alloderm. The overall complication rates were 30% and 34.5% with and without ADM. The decision model revealed a baseline cost increase of $361.96 when acellular dermal matrix is used. The increase in Quality-Adjusted Life Years (QALYs) is 1.37 in the population with acellular dermal matrix. This yields a cost effective incremental cost-utility ratio (ICUR) of $264.20/QALY. Univariate sensitivity analysis confirmed that using acellular dermal matrix is cost effective even when using retail costs for unilateral and bilateral reconstructions. Our study shows that, despite an increased cost, acellular dermal matrix is a cost effective technology for patients undergoing two-stage, expander-implant immediate breast reconstruction due to its increased utility in successful procedures. Crown Copyright © 2013. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
Dynamic metabolism modelling of urban water services--demonstrating effectiveness as a decision-support tool for Oslo, Norway.

PubMed

Venkatesh, G; Sægrov, Sveinung; Brattebø, Helge

2014-09-15

Urban water services are challenged from many perspectives and different stakeholders demand performance improvements along economic, social and environmental dimensions of sustainability. In response, urban water utilities systematically give more attention to criteria such as water safety, climate change adaptation and mitigation, environmental life cycle assessment (LCA), total cost efficiency, and on how to improve their operations within the water-energy-carbon nexus. The authors of this paper collaborated in the development of a 'Dynamic Metabolism Model' (DMM). The model is developed for generic use in the sustainability assessment of urban water services, and it has been initially tested for the city of Oslo, Norway. The purpose has been to adopt a holistic systemic perspective to the analysis of metabolism and environmental impacts of resource flows in urban water and wastewater systems, in order to offer a tool for the examination of future strategies and intervention options in such systems. This paper describes the model and its application to the city of Oslo for the analysis time period 2013-2040. The external factors impacting decision-making and interventions are introduced along with realistic scenarios developed for the testing, after consultation with officials at the Oslo Water and Wastewater Works (Norway). Possible interventions that the utility intends to set in motion are defined and numerically interpreted for incorporation into the model, and changes in the indicator values over the time period are determined. This paper aims to demonstrate the effectiveness and usefulness of the DMM, as a decision-support tool for water-wastewater utilities. The scenarios considered and interventions identified do not include all possible scenarios and interventions that can be relevant for water-wastewater utilities. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
The Burn Wound Exudate – an under-utilized resource

PubMed Central

Widgerow, Alan D; King, Kassandra; Tussardi, Ilaria Tocco; Banyard, Derek A.; Chiang, Ryan; Awad, Antony; Afzel, Hassan; Bhatnager, Shweta; Melkumyan, Satenik; Wirth, Garrett; Evans, Gregory R.D

2014-01-01

Introduction The burn wound exudate represents the burn tissue microenvironment. Extracting information from the exudate relating to cellular components, signaling mediators and protein content can provide much needed data relating to the local tissue damage, depth of the wound and probable systemic complications. This review examines the scientific data extracted from burn wound exudates over the years and proposes new investigations that will provide useful information from this underutilized resource. Method A literature review was conducted using the electronic database PubMed to search for literature pertaining to burn wound or blister fluid analysis. Key words included burn exudate, blister fluid, wound exudate, cytokine burn fluid, subeschar fluid, cytokine burns, serum cytokines. 32 relevant article were examined and 29 selected as relevant to the review. 3 papers were discarded due to questionable methodology or conclusions. The reports were assessed for their affect on management decisions and diagnostics. Furthermore, traditional blood level analysis of these mediators was made to compare the accuracy of blood versus exudate in burn wound management. Extrapolations are made for new possibilities of burn wound exudate analysis. Results Studies pertaining to burn wound exudate, subeschar fluid and blister fluid analyses may have contributed to burn wound management decisions particularly related to escharectomies and early burn wound excision. In addition, information from these studies have the potential to impact on areas such as healing, scarring, burn wound conversion and burn wound depth analysis. Conclusion Burn wound exudate analysis has proven useful in burn wound management decisions. It appears to offer a far more accurate reflection of the burn wound pathophysiology than the traditional blood/serum investigations undertaken in the past. New approaches to diagnostics and treatment efficacy assessment are possible utilizing data from this fluid. Burn wound exudate is a useful, currently under-utilized resource that is likely to take a more prominent role in burn wound management. PMID:24986597
A Utility Model for Teaching Load Decisions in Academic Departments.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Massey, William F.; Zemsky, Robert

1997-01-01

Presents a utility model for academic department decision making and describes the structural specifications for analyzing it. The model confirms the class-size utility asymmetry predicted by the authors' academic rachet theory, but shows that marginal utility associated with college teaching loads is always negative. Curricular structure and…
Evaluation of infectious diseases and clinical microbiology specialists' preferences for hand hygiene: analysis using the multi-attribute utility theory and the analytic hierarchy process methods.

PubMed

Suner, Aslı; Oruc, Ozlem Ege; Buke, Cagri; Ozkaya, Hacer Deniz; Kitapcioglu, Gul

2017-08-31

Hand hygiene is one of the most effective attempts to control nosocomial infections, and it is an important measure to avoid the transmission of pathogens. However, the compliance of healthcare workers (HCWs) with hand washing is still poor worldwide. Herein, we aimed to determine the best hand hygiene preference of the infectious diseases and clinical microbiology (IDCM) specialists to prevent transmission of microorganisms from one patient to another. Expert opinions regarding the criteria that influence the best hand hygiene preference were collected through a questionnaire via face-to-face interviews. Afterwards, these opinions were examined with two widely used multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA) methods, the Multi-Attribute Utility Theory (MAUT) and the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP). A total of 15 IDCM specialist opinions were collected from diverse private and public hospitals located in İzmir, Turkey. The mean age of the participants was 49.73 ± 8.46, and the mean experience year of the participants in their fields was 17.67 ± 11.98. The findings that we obtained through two distinct decision making methods, the MAUT and the AHP, suggest that alcohol-based antiseptic solution (ABAS) has the highest utility (0.86) and priority (0.69) among the experts' choices. In conclusion, the MAUT and the AHP, decision models developed here indicate that rubbing the hands with ABAS is the most favorable choice for IDCM specialists to prevent nosocomial infection.
Robust Bayesian decision theory applied to optimal dosage.

PubMed

Abraham, Christophe; Daurès, Jean-Pierre

2004-04-15

We give a model for constructing an utility function u(theta,d) in a dose prescription problem. theta and d denote respectively the patient state of health and the dose. The construction of u is based on the conditional probabilities of several variables. These probabilities are described by logistic models. Obviously, u is only an approximation of the true utility function and that is why we investigate the sensitivity of the final decision with respect to the utility function. We construct a class of utility functions from u and approximate the set of all Bayes actions associated to that class. Then, we measure the sensitivity as the greatest difference between the expected utilities of two Bayes actions. Finally, we apply these results to weighing up a chemotherapy treatment of lung cancer. This application emphasizes the importance of measuring robustness through the utility of decisions rather than the decisions themselves. Copyright 2004 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.
The conceptual foundation of environmental decision support.

PubMed

Reichert, Peter; Langhans, Simone D; Lienert, Judit; Schuwirth, Nele

2015-05-01

Environmental decision support intends to use the best available scientific knowledge to help decision makers find and evaluate management alternatives. The goal of this process is to achieve the best fulfillment of societal objectives. This requires a careful analysis of (i) how scientific knowledge can be represented and quantified, (ii) how societal preferences can be described and elicited, and (iii) how these concepts can best be used to support communication with authorities, politicians, and the public in environmental management. The goal of this paper is to discuss key requirements for a conceptual framework to address these issues and to suggest how these can best be met. We argue that a combination of probability theory and scenario planning with multi-attribute utility theory fulfills these requirements, and discuss adaptations and extensions of these theories to improve their application for supporting environmental decision making. With respect to (i) we suggest the use of intersubjective probabilities, if required extended to imprecise probabilities, to describe the current state of scientific knowledge. To address (ii), we emphasize the importance of value functions, in addition to utilities, to support decisions under risk. We discuss the need for testing "non-standard" value aggregation techniques, the usefulness of flexibility of value functions regarding attribute data availability, the elicitation of value functions for sub-objectives from experts, and the consideration of uncertainty in value and utility elicitation. With respect to (iii), we outline a well-structured procedure for transparent environmental decision support that is based on a clear separation of scientific prediction and societal valuation. We illustrate aspects of the suggested methodology by its application to river management in general and with a small, didactical case study on spatial river rehabilitation prioritization. Copyright © 2015 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.
Real-World Evidence: Useful in the Real World of US Payer Decision Making? How? When? And What Studies?

PubMed

Malone, Daniel C; Brown, Mary; Hurwitz, Jason T; Peters, Loretta; Graff, Jennifer S

2018-03-01

To examine how real-world evidence (RWE) is currently perceived and used in managed care environments, especially to inform pharmacy and therapeutic (P&T) committee decisions, to assess which study factors (e.g., data, design, and funding source) contribute to RWE utility in decisions, and to identify barriers to consideration of RWE studies in P&T decision making. We conducted focus groups/telephone-based interviews and surveys to understand perceptions of RWE and assess awareness, quality, and relevance of two high-profile examples of published RWE studies. A purposive sample comprised 4 physicians, 15 pharmacists, and 1 researcher representing 18 US health plans and health system organizations. Participants reported that RWE was generally used, or useful, to inform safety monitoring, utilization management, and cost analysis, but less so to guide P&T decisions. Participants were not aware of the two sample RWE studies but considered both studies to be valuable. Relevant research questions and outcomes, transparent methods, study quality, and timely results contribute to the utility of published RWE. Perceived organizational barriers to the use of published RWE included lack of skill, training, and timely study results. Payers recognize the value of RWE, but use of such studies to inform P&T decisions varies from organization to organization and is limited. Relevance to payers, timeliness, and transparent methods were key concerns with RWE. Participants recognized the need for continuing education on evaluating and using RWE to better understand the study methods, findings, and applicability to their organizations. Copyright © 2018 International Society for Pharmacoeconomics and Outcomes Research (ISPOR). Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.
Systems Approaches to the Management of Public Education.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Mansergh, Gerald G., Ed.

Three major presentations made at an October 1968 conference at Hartland, Michigan, for public school administrators and university professors are "The Systems Movement and Educational Administration," by Glenn L. Immegart; "Cost-Utility Analysis and Educational Decision-Making," by Austin D. Swanson; and "Educational…
22 CFR 124.2 - Exemptions for training and military service.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

2012-04-01

..., software source code, design methodology, engineering analysis or manufacturing know-how such as that... underlying engineering methods and design philosophy utilized (i.e., the “why” or information that explains the rationale for particular design decision, engineering feature, or performance requirement...
22 CFR 124.2 - Exemptions for training and military service.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

2014-04-01

..., software source code, design methodology, engineering analysis or manufacturing know-how such as that... underlying engineering methods and design philosophy utilized (i.e., the “why” or information that explains the rationale for particular design decision, engineering feature, or performance requirement...
22 CFR 124.2 - Exemptions for training and military service.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-04-01

..., software source code, design methodology, engineering analysis or manufacturing know-how such as that... underlying engineering methods and design philosophy utilized (i.e., the “why” or information that explains the rationale for particular design decision, engineering feature, or performance requirement...
22 CFR 124.2 - Exemptions for training and military service.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-04-01

..., software source code, design methodology, engineering analysis or manufacturing know-how such as that... underlying engineering methods and design philosophy utilized (i.e., the “why” or information that explains the rationale for particular design decision, engineering feature, or performance requirement...

Screening and Evaluation Tool (SET) Users Guide

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Pincock, Layne

This document is the users guide to using the Screening and Evaluation Tool (SET). SET is a tool for comparing multiple fuel cycle options against a common set of criteria and metrics. It does this using standard multi-attribute utility decision analysis methods.
Ground and Range Operations for a Heavy-Lift Vehicle: Preliminary Thoughts

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Rabelo, Luis; Zhu, Yanshen; Compton, Jeppie; Bardina, Jorge

2011-01-01

This paper discusses the ground and range operations for a Shuttle derived Heavy-Lift Vehicle being launched from the Kennedy Space Center on the Eastern range. Comparisons will be made between the Shuttle and a heavy lift configuration (SLS-ETF MPCV April 2011) by contrasting their subsystems. The analysis will also describe a simulation configuration with the potential to be utilized for heavy lift vehicle processing/range simulation modeling and the development of decision-making systems utilized by the range. In addition, a simple simulation model is used to provide the required critical thinking foundations for this preliminary analysis.
Health State Utility Value in Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease (COPD); The Challenge of Heterogeneity: A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis.

PubMed

Moayeri, Foruhar; Hsueh, Ya-Seng Arthur; Clarke, Philip; Hua, Xinyang; Dunt, David

2016-06-01

Chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) has a considerable impact on quality of life and well-being of patients. Health state utility value (HSUV) is a recognized measure for health economic appraisals and is extensively used as an indicator for decision-making studies. This study is a systematic review of literature aimed to estimate mean utility value in COPD using meta-analysis and explore degree of heterogeneity in the utility values across a variety of clinical and study characteristic. The literature review covers studies that used EQ-5D to estimate utility value for patient level research in COPD. Studies that reported utility values elicited by EQ-5D in COPD patients were selected for random-effect meta-analysis addressing inter-study heterogeneity and subgroup analyses. Thirty-two studies were included in the general utility meta-analysis. The estimated general utility value was 0.673 (95% CI 0.653 to 0.693). Meta-analyses of COPD stages utility values showed influence of airway obstruction on utility value. The utility values ranged from 0.820 (95% CI 0.767 to 0.872) for stage I to 0.624 (95% CI 0.571 to 0.677) for stage IV. There was substantial heterogeneity in utility values: I(2) = 97.7%. A more accurate measurement of utility values in COPD is needed to refine valid and generalizable scores of HSUV. Given the limited success of the factors studied to reduce heterogeneity, an approach needs to be developed how best to use mean utility values for COPD in health economic evaluation.
Public Utility Commission manual for Section 210 of PURPA for Vermont

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Not Available

The Public Utility Regulatory Policies Act of 1978 (PURPA) places obligations on both electric utilities and state regulatory commissions. PURPA requires every electric utility to purchase all energy and capacity made available to it, by a qualifying facility, and to sell energy and capacity to a qualifying facility upon the qualifying facility's request. State regulatory commissions must implement and administer these utility obligations and other requirements that were implemented by the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission's (FERC) final rules, which became effective March 20, 1981, and must set fair rates for electric power purchases and sales between utilities and small powermore » producers. This manual provides a concise, annotated explanation of the final FERC rules, a description of federal and state statutory authorizations, court challenges to these authorizations, analysis of the relationship between federal and state laws, analysis of Vermont's implementation of section 210 of PURPA and for comparison, annotations of selected state regulatory authority decisions.« less
Public Utility Commission manual for Section 210 of PURPA for Montana

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Not Available

The Public Utility Regulatory Policies Act of 1978 (PURPA) places obligations on both electric utilities and state regulatory commissions. PURPA requires every electric utility to purchase all energy and capacity made available to it, by a qualifying facility, and to sell energy and capacity to a qualifying facility upon the qualifying facility's request. State regulatory commissions must implement and administer these utility obligations and other requirements that were implemented by the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission's (FERC) final rules, which became effective March 20, 1981; and must set fair rates for electric power purchases and sales between utilities and small powermore » producers. This manual provides a concise, annotated explanation of the final FERC rules, a description of federal and state statutory authorizations, court challenges to these authorizations analysis of the relationship between federal and state laws, analysis of Montana's implementation of section 210 of PURPA and for comparison, annotations of selected state regulatory authority decisions.« less
Public Utility Commission manual for Section 210 of PURPA for Arkansas

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Not Available

The Public Utility Regulatory Policies Act of 1978 (PURPA) places obligations on both electric utilities and state regulatory commissions. PURPA requires every electric utility to purchase all energy and capacity made available to it, by a qualifying facility, and to sell energy and capacity to a qualifying facility upon the qualifying facility's request. State regulatory commissions must implement and administer these utility obligations and other requirements that were implemented by the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission's (FERC) final rules, which became effective March 20, 1981; and must set fair rates for electric power purchases and sales between utilities and small powermore » producers. This manual provides a concise, annotated explanation of the final FERC rules, a description of federal and state statutory authorizations, court challenges to these authorizations, analysis of the relationship between federal and state laws, analysis of Arkansas' implementation of section 210 of PURPA and for comparison, annotations of selected state regulatory authority decisions.« less
Couples’ reports of household decision-making and the utilization of maternal health services in Bangladesh

PubMed Central

Story, William T.; Burgard, Sarah A.

2012-01-01

This study examines the association between maternal health service utilization and household decision-making in Bangladesh. Most studies of the predictors of reproductive health service use focus on women’s reports; however, men are often involved in these decisions as well. Recently, studies have started to explore the association between health outcomes and reports of household decision-making from both husbands and wives as matched pairs. Many studies of household decision-making emphasize the importance of the wife alone making decisions; however, some have argued that joint decision-making between husbands and wives may yield better reproductive health outcomes than women making decisions without input or agreement from their partners. Husbands’ involvement in decision-making is particularly important in Bangladesh because men often dominate household decisions related to large, health-related purchases. We use matched husband and wife reports about who makes common household decisions to predict use of antenatal and skilled delivery care, using data from the 2007 Bangladesh Demographic and Health Survey. Results from regression analyses suggest that it is important to consider whether husbands and wives give concordant responses about who makes household decisions since discordant reports about who makes these decisions are negatively associated with reproductive health care use. In addition, compared to joint decision-making, husband-only decision-making is negatively associated with antenatal care use and skilled delivery care. Finally, associations between household decision-making arrangements and health service utilization vary depending on whose report is used and the type of health service utilized. PMID:23068556
[Application of evidence based medicine to the individual patient: the role of decision analysis].

PubMed

Housset, B; Junod, A F

2003-11-01

The objective of evidence based medicine (EBM) is to contribute to medical decision making by providing the best possible information in terms of validity and relevance. This allows evaluation in a specific manner of the benefits and risks of a decision. The limitations and hazards of this approach are discussed in relation to a clinical case where the diagnosis of pulmonary embolism was under consideration. The individual details and the limited availability of some technical procedures illustrate the need to adapt the data of EBM to the circumstances. The choice between two diagnostic tests (d-dimers and ultrasound of the legs) and their optimal timing is analysed with integration of the consequences for the patient of the treatments proposed. This allows discussion of the concept of utility and the use of sensitivity analysis. If EBM is the cornerstone of rational and explicit practise it should also allow for the constraints of real life. Decision analysis, which depends on the same critical demands as EBM but can also take account of the individual features of each patient and test the robustness of a decision, gives a unique opportunity reconcile rigorous reasoning with individualisation of management.
Multi-criteria decision analysis in environmental sciences: ten years of applications and trends.

PubMed

Huang, Ivy B; Keisler, Jeffrey; Linkov, Igor

2011-09-01

Decision-making in environmental projects requires consideration of trade-offs between socio-political, environmental, and economic impacts and is often complicated by various stakeholder views. Multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA) emerged as a formal methodology to face available technical information and stakeholder values to support decisions in many fields and can be especially valuable in environmental decision making. This study reviews environmental applications of MCDA. Over 300 papers published between 2000 and 2009 reporting MCDA applications in the environmental field were identified through a series of queries in the Web of Science database. The papers were classified by their environmental application area, decision or intervention type. In addition, the papers were also classified by the MCDA methods used in the analysis (analytic hierarchy process, multi-attribute utility theory, and outranking). The results suggest that there is a significant growth in environmental applications of MCDA over the last decade across all environmental application areas. Multiple MCDA tools have been successfully used for environmental applications. Even though the use of the specific methods and tools varies in different application areas and geographic regions, our review of a few papers where several methods were used in parallel with the same problem indicates that recommended course of action does not vary significantly with the method applied. Published by Elsevier B.V.
Prospect theory in the valuation of health.

PubMed

Moffett, Maurice L; Suarez-Almazor, Maria E

2005-08-01

Prospect theory is the prominent nonexpected utility theory in the estimation of health state preference scores for quality-adjusted life year calculation. Until recently, the theory was not considered to be developed to the point of implementation in economic analysis. This review focuses on the research and evidence that tests the implementation of prospect theory into health state valuation. The typical application of expected utility theory assumes that a decision maker has stable preferences under conditions of risk and uncertainty. Under prospect theory, preferences are dependent on whether the decision maker regards the outcome of a choice as a gain or loss, relative to a reference point. The conceptual preference for standard gamble utilities in the valuation of health states has led to the development of elicitation techniques. Empirical evidence using these techniques indicates that when individual preferences are elicited, a prospect theory consistent framework appears to be necessary for adequate representation of individual health utilities. The relevance of prospect theory to policy making and resource allocation remains to be established. Societal preferences may not need the same attitudes towards risks as individual preferences, and may remain largely risk neutral.
Family planning utilization and factors associated among women receiving abortion services in health facilities of central zone towns of Tigray, Northern Ethiopia: a cross sectional Study.

PubMed

Hagos, Goshu; Tura, Gurmesa; Kahsay, Gizienesh; Haile, Kebede; Grum, Teklit; Araya, Tsige

2018-06-05

Abortion remains among the leading causes of maternal death worldwide. Post-abortion contraception is significantly effective in preventing unintended pregnancy and abortion if provided before women leave the health facilty. However, the status of post-abortion family planning (PAFP) utilization and the contributing factors are not well studied in Tigray region. So, we conduct study aimed on family planning utilization and factors associated with it among women receiving abortion services. A facility based cross-sectional study design was conducted among women receiving abortion services in central zone of Tigray from December 2015to February 2016 using a total of 416 sample size. Women who came for abortion services were selected using systematic random sampling technique.. The data were collected using a pre-tested interviewer administered questionnair. Data were coded and entered in to Epi info 7 and then exported to SPSS for analysis. Descriptive statisticslike frequencies and mean were computed to display the results. Both Bivariable and multivariable logistic regression was used in the analysis. Variables statistically significant at p < 0.05 in the bivariable analysis were checked in multivariable logistic regration to identify independently associated factors. Then variables which were significantly associated with post abortion family planning utilization at p-value < 0.05 in the multivariable analysis were declared as significantly associated factors. A total of 409 abortion clients were interviewed in this study with 98.3% of response rate. Majority 290 (70.9%) of study participants utilized contracepives after abortion. Type of health facility, the decision maker on timing of having child, knowledge that pregnancy can happen soon after abortion and husband's opposition towards contraceptives were significantly associated with Post-abortion family planning ustilization. About one-third of abortion women failed to receive contraceptive before leaving the facility. Private facilities should strengthen utilization of contraceptives on post abortion care service. Health providers should provide counseling on timing of fertility-return following abortion before women left the facility once they receive abortion care. Women empowerment through enhancing community's awareness focusing on own decision making in the family planning utilization including the partner should be strengthened.
Utilization of multiple-criteria decision analysis (MCDA) to support healthcare decision-making FIFARMA, 2016

PubMed Central

Drake, Julia I.; de Hart, Juan Carlos Trujillo; Monleón, Clara; Toro, Walter; Valentim, Joice

2017-01-01

ABSTRACT Background and objectives: MCDA is a decision-making tool with increasing use in the healthcare sector, including HTA (Health Technology Assessment). By applying multiple criteria, including innovation, in a comprehensive, structured and explicit manner, MCDA fosters a transparent, participative, consistent decision-making process taking into consideration values of all stakeholders. This paper by FIFARMA (Latin American Federation of Pharmaceutical Industry) proposes the deliberative (partial) MCDA as a more pragmatic, agile approach, especially when newly implemented. Methods: Literature review including real-world examples of effective MCDA implementation in healthcare decision making in both the public and private sector worldwide and in LA. Results and conclusion: It is the view of FIFARMA that MCDA should strongly be considered as a tool to support HTA and broader healthcare decision making such as the contracts and tenders process in order to foster transparency, fairness, and collaboration amongst stakeholders. PMID:29081919
[Utilities: a solution of a decision problem?].

PubMed

Koller, Michael; Ohmann, Christian; Lorenz, Wilfried

2008-01-01

Utility is a concept that originates from utilitarianism, a highly influential philosophical school in the Anglo-American world. The cornerstone of utilitarianism is the principle of maximum happiness or utility. In the medical sciences, this utility approach has been adopted and developed within the field of medical decision making. On an operational level, utility is the evaluation of a health state or an outcome on a one-dimensional scale ranging from 0 (death) to 1 (perfect health). By adding the concept of expectancy, the graphic representation of both concepts in a decision tree results in the specification of expected utilities and helps to resolve complex medical decision problems. Criticism of the utility approach relates to the rational perspective on humans (which is rejected by a considerable fraction of research in psychology) and to the artificial methods used in the evaluation of utility, such as Standard Gamble or Time Trade Off. These may well be the reason why the utility approach has never been accepted in Germany. Nevertheless, innovative concepts for defining goals in health care are urgently required, as the current debate in Germany on "Nutzen" (interestingly translated as 'benefit' instead of as 'utility') and integrated outcome models indicates. It remains to be seen whether this discussion will lead to a re-evaluation of the utility approach.
Association of patient preferences for participation in decision making with length of stay and costs among hospitalized patients.

PubMed

Tak, Hyo Jung; Ruhnke, Gregory W; Meltzer, David O

2013-07-08

Patient participation in medical decision making has been associated with improved patient satisfaction and health outcomes. However, there is little evidence concerning its effects on resource utilization. Patient participation in medical decision making has been hypothesized to decrease excess utilization but might be expected to increase utilization when other decision makers have incentives to reduce utilization, as under prospective payment systems for hospital care. To examine the relationship between patient preferences for participation in medical decision making and health care utilization among hospitalized patients. Survey study in an academic research setting. A survey that included questions about preferences to receive medical information and to participate in medical decision making was administered to all patients admitted to the University of Chicago Medical Center general internal medicine service between July 1, 2003, and August 31, 2011, and completed by 21,754 (69.6%) of admitted patients. The survey data were linked with administrative data, including length of stay and total hospitalization costs. We used generalized linear models to measure the association of patient preference for participation in decision making with length of stay and costs. The mean length of stay was 5.34 days, and the mean hospitalization costs were $14,576. While 96.3% of patients expressed a desire to receive information about their illnesses and treatment options, 71.1% of patients preferred to leave medical decision making to their physician. Preference to participate in decision making increased with educational level and with private health insurance. Compared with patients who had a strong desire to delegate decisions to their physician, patients who preferred to participate in decision making concerning their care had a 0.26-day (95% CI, 0.06-0.47 day) longer length of stay (P = .01) and $865 (95% CI, $155-$1575) higher total hospitalization costs (P = .02). Patient preference to participate in decision making concerning their care may be associated with increased resource utilization among hospitalized patients. Variation in patient preference to participate in medical decision making and its effects on costs and outcomes in the presence of varying physician incentives deserve further examination.
Theory-based design and field-testing of an intervention to support women choosing surgery for breast cancer: BresDex.

PubMed

Sivell, Stephanie; Marsh, William; Edwards, Adrian; Manstead, Antony S R; Clements, Alison; Elwyn, Glyn

2012-02-01

Design and undertake usability and field-testing evaluation of a theory-guided decision aid (BresDex) in supporting women choosing surgery for early breast cancer. An extended Theory of Planned Behavior (TPB) and the Common Sense Model of Illness Representations (CSM) guided the design of BresDex. BresDex was evaluated and refined across 3 cycles by interviewing 6 women without personal history of breast cancer, 8 women with personal history of breast cancer who had completed treatment and 11 women newly diagnosed with breast cancer. Participants were interviewed for views on content, presentation (usability) and perceived usefulness towards deciding on treatment (utility). Framework analysis was used, guided by the extended TPB and the CSM. BresDex was positively received in content and presentation (usability). It appeared an effective support to decision-making and useful source for further information, particularly in clarifying attitudes, social norms and perceived behavioral control, and presenting consequences of decisions (utility). This study illustrates the potential benefit of the extended TPB and CSM in designing a decision aid to support women choosing breast cancer surgery. BresDex could provide decision-making support and serve as an additional source of information, to complement the care received from the clinical team. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.
Bayesian Decision Support for Adaptive Lung Treatments

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

McShan, Daniel; Luo, Yi; Schipper, Matt; TenHaken, Randall

2014-03-01

Purpose: A Bayesian Decision Network will be demonstrated to provide clinical decision support for adaptive lung response-driven treatment management based on evidence that physiologic metrics may correlate better with individual patient response than traditional (population-based) dose and volume-based metrics. Further, there is evidence that information obtained during the course of radiation therapy may further improve response predictions. Methods: Clinical factors were gathered for 58 patients including planned mean lung dose, and the bio-markers IL-8 and TGF-β1 obtained prior to treatment and two weeks into treatment along with complication outcomes for these patients. A Bayesian Decision Network was constructed using Netica 5.0.2 from Norsys linking these clinical factors to obtain a prediction of radiation induced lung disese (RILD) complication. A decision node was added to the network to provide a plan adaption recommendation based on the trade-off between the RILD prediction and complexity of replanning. A utility node provides the weighting cost between the competing factors. Results: The decision node predictions were optimized against the data for the 58 cases. With this decision network solution, one can consider the decision result for a new patient with specific findings to obtain a recommendation to adaptively modify the originally planned treatment course. Conclusions: A Bayesian approach allows handling and propagating probabilistic data in a logical and principled manner. Decision networks provide the further ability to provide utility-based trade-offs, reflecting non-medical but practical cost/benefit analysis. The network demonstrated illustrates the basic concept, but many other factors may affect these decisions and work on building better models are being designed and tested. Acknowledgement: Supported by NIH-P01-CA59827
A model for plant lighting system selection.

PubMed

Ciolkosz, D E; Albright, L D; Sager, J C; Langhans, R W

2002-01-01

A decision model is presented that compares lighting systems for a plant growth scenario and chooses the most appropriate system from a given set of possible choices. The model utilizes a Multiple Attribute Utility Theory approach, and incorporates expert input and performance simulations to calculate a utility value for each lighting system being considered. The system with the highest utility is deemed the most appropriate system. The model was applied to a greenhouse scenario, and analyses were conducted to test the model's output for validity. Parameter variation indicates that the model performed as expected. Analysis of model output indicates that differences in utility among the candidate lighting systems were sufficiently large to give confidence that the model's order of selection was valid.
Analysis and Management of Animal Populations: Modeling, Estimation and Decision Making

USGS Publications Warehouse

Williams, B.K.; Nichols, J.D.; Conroy, M.J.

2002-01-01

This book deals with the processes involved in making informed decisions about the management of animal populations. It covers the modeling of population responses to management actions, the estimation of quantities needed in the modeling effort, and the application of these estimates and models to the development of sound management decisions. The book synthesizes and integrates in a single volume the methods associated with these themes, as they apply to ecological assessment and conservation of animal populations. KEY FEATURES * Integrates population modeling, parameter estimation and * decision-theoretic approaches to management in a single, cohesive framework * Provides authoritative, state-of-the-art descriptions of quantitative * approaches to modeling, estimation and decision-making * Emphasizes the role of mathematical modeling in the conduct of science * and management * Utilizes a unifying biological context, consistent mathematical notation, * and numerous biological examples
External Dynamics Influencing Tattooing among College Students: A Qualitative Analysis

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Firmin, Michael; Tse, Luke; Foster, Janna; Angelini, Tammy

2012-01-01

The study utilized qualitative research methodology to assess external dynamics and their influences on tattooing practices among college students. Twenty-four undergraduates supplied in-depth interviews regarding the external variables related to college students' decisions to tattoo. The present research follows (Tse, Firmin, Angelini, &…
Direct-to-consumer advertising and its utility in health care decision making: a consumer perspective.

PubMed

Deshpande, Aparna; Menon, Ajit; Perri, Matthew; Zinkhan, George

2004-01-01

The growth in direct-to-consumer advertising(DTCA)over the past two decades has facilitated the communication of prescription drug information directly to consumers. Data from a 1999 national survey are employed to determine the factors influencing consumers' opinions of the utility of DTC ads for health care decision making. We also analyze whether consumers use DTC ad information in health care decision making and who are the key drivers of such information utilization. The study results suggest that consumers have positive opinions of DTCA utility, varying across demographics and perceptions of certain advertisement features. Specifically, consumers value information about both risks and benefits, but the perception of risk information is more important in shaping opinions of ad utility than the perception of benefit information. Consumers still perceive, however that the quality of benefit information in DTC ads is better than that of risk information. Opinions about ad utility significantly influence whether information from DTC ads is used in health care decision making.

Decision support system for drinking water management

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Janža, M.

2012-04-01

The problems in drinking water management are complex and often solutions must be reached under strict time constrains. This is especially distinct in case of environmental accidents in the catchment areas of the wells that are used for drinking water supply. The beneficial tools that can help decision makers and make program of activities more efficient are decision support systems (DSS). In general they are defined as computer-based support systems that help decision makers utilize data and models to solve unstructured problems. The presented DSS was developed in the frame of INCOME project which is focused on the long-term stable and safe drinking water supply in Ljubljana. The two main water resources Ljubljana polje and Barje alluvial aquifers are characterized by a strong interconnection of surface and groundwater, high vulnerability, high velocities of groundwater flow and pollutant transport. In case of sudden pollution, reactions should be very fast to avoid serious impact to the water supply. In the area high pressures arising from urbanization, industry, traffic, agriculture and old environmental burdens. The aim of the developed DSS is to optimize the activities in cases of emergency water management and to optimize the administrative work regarding the activities that can improve groundwater quality status. The DSS is an interactive computer system that utilizes data base, hydrological modelling, and experts' and stakeholders' knowledge. It consists of three components, tackling the different abovementioned issues in water management. The first one utilizes the work on identification, cleaning up and restoration of illegal dumpsites that are a serious threat to the qualitative status of groundwater. The other two components utilize the predictive capability of the hydrological model and scenario analysis. The user interacts with the system by a graphical interface that guides the user step-by-step to the recommended remedial measures. Consequently, the acquisition of information to support the water management's decisions is simplified and faster, thus contributing to more efficient water management and a safer supply of drinking water.
Decision support tools for proton therapy ePR: intelligent treatment planning navigator and radiation toxicity tool for evaluating of prostate cancer treatment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Le, Anh H.; Deshpande, Ruchi; Liu, Brent J.

2010-03-01

The electronic patient record (ePR) has been developed for prostate cancer patients treated with proton therapy. The ePR has functionality to accept digital input from patient data, perform outcome analysis and patient and physician profiling, provide clinical decision support and suggest courses of treatment, and distribute information across different platforms and health information systems. In previous years, we have presented the infrastructure of a medical imaging informatics based ePR for PT with functionality to accept digital patient information and distribute this information across geographical location using Internet protocol. In this paper, we present the ePR decision support tools which utilize the imaging processing tools and data collected in the ePR. The two decision support tools including the treatment plan navigator and radiation toxicity tool are presented to evaluate prostate cancer treatment to improve proton therapy operation and improve treatment outcomes analysis.
Mixture-based gatekeeping procedures in adaptive clinical trials.

PubMed

Kordzakhia, George; Dmitrienko, Alex; Ishida, Eiji

2018-01-01

Clinical trials with data-driven decision rules often pursue multiple clinical objectives such as the evaluation of several endpoints or several doses of an experimental treatment. These complex analysis strategies give rise to "multivariate" multiplicity problems with several components or sources of multiplicity. A general framework for defining gatekeeping procedures in clinical trials with adaptive multistage designs is proposed in this paper. The mixture method is applied to build a gatekeeping procedure at each stage and inferences at each decision point (interim or final analysis) are performed using the combination function approach. An advantage of utilizing the mixture method is that it enables powerful gatekeeping procedures applicable to a broad class of settings with complex logical relationships among the hypotheses of interest. Further, the combination function approach supports flexible data-driven decisions such as a decision to increase the sample size or remove a treatment arm. The paper concludes with a clinical trial example that illustrates the methodology by applying it to develop an adaptive two-stage design with a mixture-based gatekeeping procedure.
"Utilizing" signal detection theory.

PubMed

Lynn, Spencer K; Barrett, Lisa Feldman

2014-09-01

What do inferring what a person is thinking or feeling, judging a defendant's guilt, and navigating a dimly lit room have in common? They involve perceptual uncertainty (e.g., a scowling face might indicate anger or concentration, for which different responses are appropriate) and behavioral risk (e.g., a cost to making the wrong response). Signal detection theory describes these types of decisions. In this tutorial, we show how incorporating the economic concept of utility allows signal detection theory to serve as a model of optimal decision making, going beyond its common use as an analytic method. This utility approach to signal detection theory clarifies otherwise enigmatic influences of perceptual uncertainty on measures of decision-making performance (accuracy and optimality) and on behavior (an inverse relationship between bias magnitude and sensitivity optimizes utility). A "utilized" signal detection theory offers the possibility of expanding the phenomena that can be understood within a decision-making framework. © The Author(s) 2014.
An Analysis of Categorical and Quantitative Methods for Planning Under Uncertainty

PubMed Central

Langlotz, Curtis P.; Shortliffe, Edward H.

1988-01-01

Decision theory and logical reasoning are both methods for representing and solving medical decision problems. We analyze the usefulness of these two approaches to medical therapy planning by establishing a simple correspondence between decision theory and non-monotonic logic, a formalization of categorical logical reasoning. The analysis indicates that categorical approaches to planning can be viewed as comprising two decision-theoretic concepts: probabilities (degrees of belief in planning hypotheses) and utilities (degrees of desirability of planning outcomes). We present and discuss examples of the following lessons from this decision-theoretic view of categorical (nonmonotonic) reasoning: (1) Decision theory and artificial intelligence techniques are intended to solve different components of the planning problem. (2) When considered in the context of planning under uncertainty, nonmonotonic logics do not retain the domain-independent characteristics of classical logical reasoning for planning under certainty. (3) Because certain nonmonotonic programming paradigms (e.g., frame-based inheritance, rule-based planning, protocol-based reminders) are inherently problem-specific, they may be inappropriate to employ in the solution of certain types of planning problems. We discuss how these conclusions affect several current medical informatics research issues, including the construction of “very large” medical knowledge bases.
Anticipated motivation for genetic testing among smokers, nonsmokers, and former smokers: an exploratory qualitative study of decision making.

PubMed

Giordimaina, Alicia M; Sheldon, Jane P; Petty, Elizabeth M

2014-01-01

This qualitative study explores the public's interest in genetic testing related to cigarette smoking, comparing the public's motivations with researchers' intentions for this technology. Adult nonsmokers (n=463), former smokers (n=163), and current smokers (n=129) completed an online survey. Within a hypothetical scenario, respondents decided whether they desired genetic testing related to smoking and explained their decision making. A non-parametric Kruskal-Wallis test was used to compare the interest in genetic testing by smoking history group. Inductive content analysis was used to investigate respondents' explanations for their testing decisions. Most nonsmokers (64%) and former smokers (58%) did not want genetic testing. While most current daily smokers were interested in testing (56%), most current occasional smokers were not (52%). Respondents' decision-making explanations were categorized into 3 major themes: Causality, Relevancy and Utility (e.g. personal benefits or harms). The use of causality, relevancy and utility explanations varied by smoking history. Notable perceived benefits of testing included recreation and altruism. Notable perceived harms included fear of fatalistic thoughts and concern about genetic discrimination. Interest in genetic testing was highest among current daily smokers, despite potential utility in other groups. Although respondents' motivations for testing paralleled researchers' intentions of tailoring smoking cessation therapies and increasing motivation to quit or abstain, respondents also raised alternative motivations and fears that healthcare providers would need to address. © 2014 S. Karger AG, Basel.
Cost-utility analysis of an adjunctive recombinant activated factor VIIa for on-demand treatment of bleeding episodes in dengue haemorrhagic fever.

PubMed

Naing, Cho; Poovorawan, Yong; Mak, Joon Wah; Aung, Kyan; Kamolratankul, Pirom

2015-06-01

The present study aimed to assess the cost-utility analysis of using an adjunctive recombinant activated factor VIIa (rFVIIa) in children for controlling life-threatening bleeding in dengue haemorrhagic fever (DHF)/dengue shock syndrome (DSS). We constructed a decision-tree model, comparing a standard care and the use of an additional adjuvant rFVIIa for controlling life-threatening bleeding in children with DHF/DSS. Cost and utility benefit were estimated from the societal perspective. The outcome measure was cost per quality-adjusted life years (QALYs). Overall, treatment with adjuvant rFVIIa gained QALYs, but the total cost was higher. The incremental cost-utility ratio for the introduction of adjuvant rFVIIa was $4241.27 per additional QALY. Sensitivity analyses showed the utility value assigned for calculation of QALY was the most sensitive parameter. We concluded that despite high cost, there is a role for rFVIIa in the treatment of life-threatening bleeding in patients with DHF/DSS.
What Ambulatory Care Managers Need to Know About Examination Room Utilization Measurement and Analysis.

PubMed

Klarich, Mark J; Rea, Ronald W; Lal, Tarun Mohan; Garcia, Angel L; Steffens, Fay L

2016-01-01

Demand for ambulatory care visits is projected to increase 22% between 2008 and 2025. Given this growth, ambulatory care managers need to proactively plan for efficient use of scarce resources (ie, space, equipment, and staff). One important component of ambulatory care space (the number of examination rooms) is dependent on multiple factors, including variation in demand, hours of operation, scheduling, and staff. The authors (1) outline common data collection methods, (2) highlight analysis and reporting considerations for examination room utilization, and (3) provide a strategic framework for short- and long-term decision making for facility design or renovation.
Economic evaluation of mental health interventions: an introduction to cost-utility analysis.

PubMed

Luyten, Jeroen; Naci, Huseyin; Knapp, Martin

2016-05-01

Finite resources need to be allocated over an ever-increasing range of competing health policies and interventions. Economic evaluation has been developed as a methodology to inform decision makers on the efficiency of particular resource allocations. In this paper we summarize cost-utility analysis, one of the most widely-used forms of economic evaluation in healthcare. We discuss its main elements, interpretation, limitations and relevance to the domain of mental health. Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://www.bmj.com/company/products-services/rights-and-licensing/
A Decision Analysis Perspective on Multiple Response Robust Optimization

DTIC Science & Technology

2012-03-01

the utility function in question is monotonically increasing and is twice differentiable . If γ(y) = 0, the utility function is describing risk neutral...twice differentiable , the risk aversion function with respect to a single attribute, yi, i = 1, . . . , n, is given in Equation 2.9, γUyi = − U ′′yi U...UV (V (y1, y2)) and fol- lowing the chain rule of differentiation , Matheson and Abbas [31] show that the risk aversion with respect to a single
Two decision aids for mode of delivery among women with previous caesarean section: randomised controlled trial.

PubMed

Montgomery, Alan A; Emmett, Clare L; Fahey, Tom; Jones, Claire; Ricketts, Ian; Patel, Roshni R; Peters, Tim J; Murphy, Deirdre J

2007-06-23

To determine the effects of two computer based decision aids on decisional conflict and mode of delivery among pregnant women with a previous caesarean section. Randomised trial, conducted from May 2004 to August 2006. Four maternity units in south west England, and Scotland. 742 pregnant women with one previous lower segment caesarean section and delivery expected at >or=37 weeks. Non-English speakers were excluded. Usual care: standard care given by obstetric and midwifery staff. Information programme: women navigated through descriptions and probabilities of clinical outcomes for mother and baby associated with planned vaginal birth, elective caesarean section, and emergency caesarean section. Decision analysis: mode of delivery was recommended based on utility assessments performed by the woman combined with probabilities of clinical outcomes within a concealed decision tree. Both interventions were delivered via a laptop computer after brief instructions from a researcher. Total score on decisional conflict scale, and mode of delivery. Women in the information programme (adjusted difference -6.2, 95% confidence interval -8.7 to -3.7) and the decision analysis (-4.0, -6.5 to -1.5) groups had reduced decisional conflict compared with women in the usual care group. The rate of vaginal birth was higher for women in the decision analysis group compared with the usual care group (37% v 30%, adjusted odds ratio 1.42, 0.94 to 2.14), but the rates were similar in the information programme and usual care groups. Decision aids can help women who have had a previous caesarean section to decide on mode of delivery in a subsequent pregnancy. The decision analysis approach might substantially affect national rates of caesarean section. Trial Registration Current Controlled Trials ISRCTN84367722.
Decision-making Process by Users and Providers of Health Care Services During the AH1N1 Epidemic Influenza in Mexico: Lessons Learned and Challenges Ahead.

PubMed

Huízar-Hernández, Víctor; Arredondo, Armando; Caballero, Marta; Castro-Ríos, Angélica; Flores-Hernández, Sergio; Pérez-Padilla, Rogelio; Reyes-Morales, Hortensia

2017-04-01

The aim of the study was to analyze, using a decision analysis approach, the probability of severity of illness due to delayed utilization of health services and inappropriate hospital medical treatment during the 2009 AH1N1 influenza epidemic in Mexico. Patients with influenza AH1N1 confirmed by the polymerase chain reaction (PCR) test from two hospitals in Mexico City, were included. Path methodology based upon literature and validated by clinical experts was followed. The probability for severe illness originated from delayed utilization of health services, delayed prescription of neuraminidase inhibitors (NAIs) and inappropriate use of antibiotics was assessed. Ninety-nine patients were analyzed, and 16% developed severe illness. Most patients received NAIs and 85.9% received antibiotics. Inappropriate use of antibiotics was observed in 70.7% of cases. Early utilization of services increased the likelihood of non-severe illness (cumulative probability CP = 0.56). The major cumulative probability for severe illness was observed when prescription of NAIs was delayed (CP = 0.19). Delayed prescription of NAIs and irrational use of antibiotics are critical decisions for unfavorable outcomes in patients suffering influenza AH1N1. Copyright © 2017 IMSS. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.
Values-Based Leadership: College Leaders' Perceptions on Maintaining Values in Decision Making

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Buckner, Ramona K.

2013-01-01

The purpose of this study was to explore college leaders' experiences negotiating conflicts between personal and organizational values. This qualitative study utilized symbolic interactionism and involved interviews with five college campus leaders from various institutions. Analysis of interviews, observations, field notes and artifacts revealed…
An Inventory and Use Analysis of Information Systems on Small Farms in Pennsylvania

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Adams, Jean S.

2007-01-01

Across the United States, today's farm operators face continuing challenges from global competition, increasing production costs, changing technology, increased regulations, scarce resources, and lower profit margins. To face these challenges, farm operators need to gather and utilize information allowing them to make informed decisions. Several…
AN ALTERNATIVE METHOD FOR ESTABLISHING TEFS FOR DIOXIN-LIKE COMPOUNDS. PART 1. EVALUATION OF DECISION ANALYSIS METHODS FOR USE IN WEIGHTING RELATIVE POTENCY DATA

EPA Science Inventory

A number of investigators have recently examined the utility of applying probabilistic techniques in the derivation of toxic equivalency factors (TEFs) for polychlorinated dibenzo-p-dioxins (PCDDs), polychlorinated dibenzofurans (PCDFs) and dioxin-like polychlorinated biphenyls (...
COMPARING THE UTILITY OF MULTIMEDIA MODELS FOR HUMAN AND ECOLOGICAL EXPOSURE ANALYSIS: TWO CASES

EPA Science Inventory

A number of models are available for exposure assessment; however, few are used as tools for both human and ecosystem risks. This discussion will consider two modeling frameworks that have recently been used to support human and ecological decision making. The study will compare ...
Field Theory in Organizational Psychology: An Analysis of Theoretical Approaches in Leadership.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Garcia, Joseph E.

This literature review examines Kurt Lewin's influence in leadership psychology. Characteristics of field theory are described in detail and utilized in analyzing leadership research, including the trait approach, leader behavior studies, contingency theory, path-goal theory, and leader decision theory. Important trends in leadership research are…
Empirical Specification of Utility Functions.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Mellenbergh, Gideon J.

Decision theory can be applied to four types of decision situations in education and psychology: (1) selection; (2) placement; (3) classification; and (4) mastery. For the application of the theory, a utility function must be specified. Usually the utility function is chosen on a priori grounds. In this paper methods for the empirical assessment…
Using multiple pharmacoeconomic methods to conduct a cost-effectiveness analysis of histamine H2-receptor antagonists.

PubMed

McCoy, S; Blayney-Chandramouli, J; Mutnick, A

1998-12-15

A formulary decision at a health care institution was studied by using two pharmacoeconomic methods. A pharmacoeconomic study was undertaken to assess the impact of a 1995 formulary decision to designate cimetidine as the primary histamine H2-receptor antagonist (H2RA) and to restrict the use of famotidine. Consecutive patients receiving either i.v. cimetidine or famotidine for stress ulcer prophylaxis were reviewed during a two-month period in 1997, and information on demographics, dosage and duration of H2RA therapy, admission date, laboratory test values, and adverse drug reactions was collected. Data for 62 patients (43 cimetidine recipients and 19 famotidine recipients) were evaluated. Therapy was categorized as successful or failed, and the data were then evaluated by decision analysis to evaluate the cost-effectiveness of the agents and by multiattribute utility theory (MAUT) to incorporate a humanistic evaluation of the treatments, namely, the number of doses administered and the number of times dosages were changed. The decision tree revealed that the average cost of receiving cimetidine was $82.01 and the average cost of famotidine therapy was $92.45. The MAUT analysis showed that cimetidine was the preferred agent as long as cost was valued at greater than 60% of the decision-making process and efficacy remained equal between the two agents. Two pharmacoeconomic methods lent support to a formulary decision at a health care institution.
Developing a clinical utility framework to evaluate prediction models in radiogenomics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wu, Yirong; Liu, Jie; Munoz del Rio, Alejandro; Page, David C.; Alagoz, Oguzhan; Peissig, Peggy; Onitilo, Adedayo A.; Burnside, Elizabeth S.

2015-03-01

Combining imaging and genetic information to predict disease presence and behavior is being codified into an emerging discipline called "radiogenomics." Optimal evaluation methodologies for radiogenomics techniques have not been established. We aim to develop a clinical decision framework based on utility analysis to assess prediction models for breast cancer. Our data comes from a retrospective case-control study, collecting Gail model risk factors, genetic variants (single nucleotide polymorphisms-SNPs), and mammographic features in Breast Imaging Reporting and Data System (BI-RADS) lexicon. We first constructed three logistic regression models built on different sets of predictive features: (1) Gail, (2) Gail+SNP, and (3) Gail+SNP+BI-RADS. Then, we generated ROC curves for three models. After we assigned utility values for each category of findings (true negative, false positive, false negative and true positive), we pursued optimal operating points on ROC curves to achieve maximum expected utility (MEU) of breast cancer diagnosis. We used McNemar's test to compare the predictive performance of the three models. We found that SNPs and BI-RADS features augmented the baseline Gail model in terms of the area under ROC curve (AUC) and MEU. SNPs improved sensitivity of the Gail model (0.276 vs. 0.147) and reduced specificity (0.855 vs. 0.912). When additional mammographic features were added, sensitivity increased to 0.457 and specificity to 0.872. SNPs and mammographic features played a significant role in breast cancer risk estimation (p-value < 0.001). Our decision framework comprising utility analysis and McNemar's test provides a novel framework to evaluate prediction models in the realm of radiogenomics.

Energy consumption behavior in the commercial sector: An ethnographic analysis of utility bill information and customer comprehension in the workplace

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Payne, Christopher Todd

The commercial and industrial sectors of the United States compose roughly one-third of total United States energy consumption. Many studies have suggested that significant cost-effective energy savings opportunities exist in this sector, but there is a gap between predictions of potential and actual investment in energy-efficient technologies. Very few studies have been conducted to examine the decision-making environment of the business sector. In particular, there is essentially no information about how small-business decision-makers make choices about energy consumption. My research is intended to begin the process of understanding this important arena of energy consumption behavior. Using semi-structured interview techniques, I interviewed forty-four businesses in ten states. The focus of the interviews was the business decision-maker's handling and use of the utility bill---the main (often sole) piece of information that links energy consumption to cost. Through the interviews, I collected information about how utility bills are understood and misunderstood, what components of the bill are seen as useful or confusing, and how energy consumption was seen in the context of larger business decision-making. In addition, I collected data on two forms of energy consumption feedback: historic consumption feedback, in which informants compared their current energy use to patterns of their own energy consumption over time; and group comparison consumption feedback, in which informants compared their energy consumption to the consumption of a group of similar energy consumers. Finally, I collected data on sources of information to which decision-makers turned when they wanted to seek more information about energy consumption alternatives. Overall, my findings suggest that the current utility bill format is often misunderstood. In many cases, particularly in the small-business and medium-size-business categories, the link between energy consumption and energy cost is broken. The result is a sense of disempowerment for many consumers. Rather than seeing their energy consumption as something under their control, they instead view the energy bill as an unavoidable component of operating a business, comparing it to other required expenses like rent or taxes. Reaction to changes in the utility bill to provide consumption feedback were mixed. Improvements to self-comparison information provided on the bill were generally viewed positively. On the other hand, energy consumption comparisons with similar groups of customers were viewed with a great deal of skepticism. The idea of group comparison was generally discarded as impractical or invalid. This research improves academic understanding of the energy consumption decision-making environment in the business sector. By developing a better understanding of the context in which these energy consumption decisions are made, the research suggests opportunities for improvements to the mechanisms by which business decision-makers gain information about energy consumption alternatives and energy efficiency opportunities. Improvements to the information provided on the utility bill could enhance the linkage between energy consumption and energy cost for commercial-sector decision-makers, particularly in the small business sector. This could, in turn, lead to greater attention to economic opportunities for energy consumption reduction. Ultimately, improved utility bill information could result in energy and cost savings to business consumers.
42 CFR 456.126 - Time limits for final decision and notification of adverse decision.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-10-01

..., DEPARTMENT OF HEALTH AND HUMAN SERVICES (CONTINUED) MEDICAL ASSISTANCE PROGRAMS UTILIZATION CONTROL Utilization Control: Hospitals Ur Plan: Review of Need for Admission 1 § 456.126 Time limits for final... 42 Public Health 4 2011-10-01 2011-10-01 false Time limits for final decision and notification of...
42 CFR 456.137 - Time limits for final decision and notification of adverse decision.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-10-01

..., DEPARTMENT OF HEALTH AND HUMAN SERVICES (CONTINUED) MEDICAL ASSISTANCE PROGRAMS UTILIZATION CONTROL Utilization Control: Hospitals Ur Plan: Review of Need for Continued Stay § 456.137 Time limits for final... 42 Public Health 4 2011-10-01 2011-10-01 false Time limits for final decision and notification of...
42 CFR 456.238 - Time limits for final decision and notification of adverse decision.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-10-01

..., DEPARTMENT OF HEALTH AND HUMAN SERVICES (CONTINUED) MEDICAL ASSISTANCE PROGRAMS UTILIZATION CONTROL Utilization Control: Mental Hospitals Ur Plan: Review of Need for Continued Stay § 456.238 Time limits for... 42 Public Health 4 2011-10-01 2011-10-01 false Time limits for final decision and notification of...
42 CFR 456.137 - Time limits for final decision and notification of adverse decision.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-10-01

..., DEPARTMENT OF HEALTH AND HUMAN SERVICES (CONTINUED) MEDICAL ASSISTANCE PROGRAMS UTILIZATION CONTROL Utilization Control: Hospitals Ur Plan: Review of Need for Continued Stay § 456.137 Time limits for final... 42 Public Health 4 2010-10-01 2010-10-01 false Time limits for final decision and notification of...
42 CFR 456.126 - Time limits for final decision and notification of adverse decision.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-10-01

..., DEPARTMENT OF HEALTH AND HUMAN SERVICES (CONTINUED) MEDICAL ASSISTANCE PROGRAMS UTILIZATION CONTROL Utilization Control: Hospitals Ur Plan: Review of Need for Admission 1 § 456.126 Time limits for final... 42 Public Health 4 2010-10-01 2010-10-01 false Time limits for final decision and notification of...
Decision making in a multidisciplinary cancer team: does team discussion result in better quality decisions?

PubMed

Kee, Frank; Owen, Tracy; Leathem, Ruth

2004-01-01

To establish whether treatment recommendations made by clinicians concur with the best outcomes predicted from their prognostic estimates and whether team discussion improves the quality or outcome of their decision making, the authors studied real-time decision making by a lung cancer team. Clinicians completed pre- and postdiscussion questionnaires for 50 newly diagnosed patients. For each patient/doctor pairing, a decision model determined the expected patient outcomes from the clinician's prognostic estimates. The difference between the expected utility of the recommended treatment and the maximum utility derived from the clinician's predictions of the outcomes (the net utility loss) following all potential treatment modalities was calculated as an indicator of quality of the decision. The proportion of treatment decisions changed by the multidisciplinary team discussion was also calculated. Insofar as the change in net utility loss brought about by multidisciplinary team discussion was not significantly different from zero, team discussion did not improve the quality of decision making overall. However, given the modest power of the study, these findings must be interpreted with caution. In only 23 of 87 instances (26%) in which an individual specialist's initial treatment preference differed from the final group judgment did the specialist finally concur with the group treatment choice after discussion. This study does not support the theory that team discussion improves decision making by closing a knowledge gap.
Thresholds for conservation and management: structured decision making as a conceptual framework

USGS Publications Warehouse

Nichols, James D.; Eaton, Mitchell J.; Martin, Julien; Edited by Guntenspergen, Glenn R.

2014-01-01

changes in system dynamics. They are frequently incorporated into ecological models used to project system responses to management actions. Utility thresholds are components of management objectives and are values of state or performance variables at which small changes yield substantial changes in the value of the management outcome. Decision thresholds are values of system state variables at which small changes prompt changes in management actions in order to reach specified management objectives. Decision thresholds are derived from the other components of the decision process.We advocate a structured decision making (SDM) approach within which the following components are identified: objectives (possibly including utility thresholds), potential actions, models (possibly including ecological thresholds), monitoring program, and a solution algorithm (which produces decision thresholds). Adaptive resource management (ARM) is described as a special case of SDM developed for recurrent decision problems that are characterized by uncertainty. We believe that SDM, in general, and ARM, in particular, provide good approaches to conservation and management. Use of SDM and ARM also clarifies the distinct roles of ecological thresholds, utility thresholds, and decision thresholds in informed decision processes.
The utility of decision support, clinical guidelines, and financial incentives as tools to achieve improved clinical performance.

PubMed

Goldfarb, S

1999-03-01

Whether one seeks to reduce inappropriate utilization of resources, improve diagnostic accuracy, increase utilization of effective therapies, or reduce the incidence of complications, the key to change is physician involvement in change. Unfortunately, a simple approach to the problem of inducing change in physician behavior is not available. There is a generally accepted view that expert, best-practice guidelines will improve clinical performance. However, there may be a bias to report positive results and a lack of careful analysis of guideline usage in routine practice in a "postmarketing" study akin to that seen in the pharmaceutical industry. Systems that allow the reliable assessment of quality of outcomes, efficiency of resource utilization, and accurate assessment of the risks associated with the care of given patient populations must be widely available before deciding whether an incentive-based system for providing the full range of medical care is feasible. Decision support focuses on providing information, ideally at the "point of service" and in the context of a particular clinical situation. Rules are self-imposed by physicians and are therefore much more likely to be adopted. As health care becomes corporatized, with increasing numbers of physicians employed by large organizations with the capacity to provide detailed information on the nature and quality of clinical care, it is possible that properly constructed guidelines, appropriate financial incentives, and robust forms of decision support will lead to a physician-led, process improvement approach to more rational and affordable health care.
Qualitatively understanding patients' and health professionals' experiences of the BRECONDA breast reconstruction decision aid.

PubMed

Sherman, Kerry A; Shaw, Laura-Kate; Jørgensen, Lone; Harcourt, Diana; Cameron, Linda; Boyages, John; Elder, Elisabeth; Kirk, Judy; Tucker, Katherine

2017-10-01

Women diagnosed with breast cancer or ductal carcinoma in situ and those with a genetic susceptibility to developing this disease face the challenging decision of whether or not to undergo breast reconstruction following mastectomy. As part of a large randomized controlled trial, this qualitative study examined women's experiences of using the Breast RECONstruction Decision Aid (BRECONDA) and health professionals' feedback regarding the impact of this resource on patients' knowledge and decision making about breast reconstruction. Semistructured interviews were conducted with women who accessed the BRECONDA intervention (N = 36) and with their healthcare providers (N = 6). All interviews were transcribed verbatim and subjected to thematic analysis by 3 independent coders. Participants reported an overall positive impression, with all interviewees endorsing this decision aid as a useful resource for women considering reconstructive surgery. Thematic analysis of patient interviews revealed 4 themes: overall impressions and aesthetics; personal relevance and utility; introducing BRECONDA; and advantages and suggested improvements. Analysis of health professionals' interviews also revealed 4 themes: need for BRECONDA, impact of BRECONDA, potential difficulties that may arise in using the decision aid, and recommending BRECONDA to patients. Patients indicated that they derived benefit from this resource at all stages of their decision-making process, with the greatest perceived benefit being for those early in their breast reconstruction journey. These findings support the use of BRECONDA as an adjunct to clinical consultation and other information sources. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.
Use of a 17-Gene Prognostic Assay in Contemporary Urologic Practice: Results of an Interim Analysis in an Observational Cohort.

PubMed

Eure, Gregg; Germany, Raymond; Given, Robert; Lu, Ruixiao; Shindel, Alan W; Rothney, Megan; Glowacki, Richard; Henderson, Jonathan; Richardson, Tim; Goldfischer, Evan; Febbo, Phillip G; Denes, Bela S

2017-09-01

To study the impact of genomic testing in shared decision making for men with clinically low-risk prostate cancer (PCa). Patients with clinically low-risk PCa were enrolled in a prospective, multi-institutional study of a validated 17-gene tissue-based reverse transcription polymerase chain reaction assay (Genomic Prostate Score [GPS]). In this paper we report on outcomes in the first 297 patients enrolled in the study with valid 17-gene assay results and decision-change data. The primary end points were shared decision on initial management and persistence on active surveillance (AS) at 1 year post diagnosis. AS utilization and persistence were compared with similar end points in a group of patients who did not have genomic testing (baseline cohort). Secondary end points included perceived utility of the assay and patient decisional conflict before and after testing. One-year results were available on 258 patients. Shift between initial recommendation and shared decision occurred in 23% of patients. Utilization of AS was higher in the GPS-tested cohort than in the untested baseline cohort (62% vs 40%). The proportion of men who selected and persisted on AS at 1 year was 55% and 34% in the GPS and baseline cohorts, respectively. Physicians reported that GPS was useful in 90% of cases. Mean decisional conflict scores declined in patients after GPS testing. Patients who received GPS testing were more likely to select and persist on AS for initial management compared with a matched baseline group. These data indicate that GPS help guide shared decisions in clinically low-risk PCa. Copyright © 2017 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.
NursesforTomorrow: a proactive approach to nursing resource analysis.

PubMed

Bournes, Debra A; Plummer, Carolyn; Miller, Robert; Ferguson-Paré, Mary

2010-03-01

This paper describes the background, development, implementation and utilization of NursesforTomorrow (N4T), a practical and comprehensive nursing human resources analysis method to capture regional, institutional and patient care unit-specific actual and predicted nurse vacancies, nurse staff characteristics and nurse staffing changes. Reports generated from the process include forecasted shortfalls or surpluses of nurses, percentage of novice nurses, occupancy, sick time, overtime, agency use and other metrics. Readers will benefit from a description of the ways in which the data generated from the nursing resource analysis process are utilized at senior leadership, program and unit levels to support proactive hiring and resource allocation decisions and to predict unit-specific recruitment and retention patterns across multiple healthcare organizations and regions.
Health economic evaluation: important principles and methodology.

PubMed

Rudmik, Luke; Drummond, Michael

2013-06-01

To discuss health economic evaluation and improve the understanding of common methodology. This article discusses the methodology for the following types of economic evaluations: cost-minimization, cost-effectiveness, cost-utility, cost-benefit, and economic modeling. Topics include health-state utility measures, the quality-adjusted life year (QALY), uncertainty analysis, discounting, decision tree analysis, and Markov modeling. Economic evaluation is the comparative analysis of alternative courses of action in terms of both their costs and consequences. With increasing health care expenditure and limited resources, it is important for physicians to consider the economic impact of their interventions. Understanding common methodology involved in health economic evaluation will improve critical appraisal of the literature and optimize future economic evaluations. Copyright © 2012 The American Laryngological, Rhinological and Otological Society, Inc.
Determining the optimal forensic DNA analysis procedure following investigation of sample quality.

PubMed

Hedell, Ronny; Hedman, Johannes; Mostad, Petter

2018-07-01

Crime scene traces of various types are routinely sent to forensic laboratories for analysis, generally with the aim of addressing questions about the source of the trace. The laboratory may choose to analyse the samples in different ways depending on the type and quality of the sample, the importance of the case and the cost and performance of the available analysis methods. Theoretically well-founded guidelines for the choice of analysis method are, however, lacking in most situations. In this paper, it is shown how such guidelines can be created using Bayesian decision theory. The theory is applied to forensic DNA analysis, showing how the information from the initial qPCR analysis can be utilized. It is assumed the alternatives for analysis are using a standard short tandem repeat (STR) DNA analysis assay, using the standard assay and a complementary assay, or the analysis may be cancelled following quantification. The decision is based on information about the DNA amount and level of DNA degradation of the forensic sample, as well as case circumstances and the cost for analysis. Semi-continuous electropherogram models are used for simulation of DNA profiles and for computation of likelihood ratios. It is shown how tables and graphs, prepared beforehand, can be used to quickly find the optimal decision in forensic casework.
What Is True Halving in the Payoff Matrix of Game Theory?

PubMed Central

Hasegawa, Eisuke; Yoshimura, Jin

2016-01-01

In game theory, there are two social interpretations of rewards (payoffs) for decision-making strategies: (1) the interpretation based on the utility criterion derived from expected utility theory and (2) the interpretation based on the quantitative criterion (amount of gain) derived from validity in the empirical context. A dynamic decision theory has recently been developed in which dynamic utility is a conditional (state) variable that is a function of the current wealth of a decision maker. We applied dynamic utility to the equal division in dove-dove contests in the hawk-dove game. Our results indicate that under the utility criterion, the half-share of utility becomes proportional to a player’s current wealth. Our results are consistent with studies of the sense of fairness in animals, which indicate that the quantitative criterion has greater validity than the utility criterion. We also find that traditional analyses of repeated games must be reevaluated. PMID:27487194
What Is True Halving in the Payoff Matrix of Game Theory?

PubMed

Ito, Hiromu; Katsumata, Yuki; Hasegawa, Eisuke; Yoshimura, Jin

2016-01-01

In game theory, there are two social interpretations of rewards (payoffs) for decision-making strategies: (1) the interpretation based on the utility criterion derived from expected utility theory and (2) the interpretation based on the quantitative criterion (amount of gain) derived from validity in the empirical context. A dynamic decision theory has recently been developed in which dynamic utility is a conditional (state) variable that is a function of the current wealth of a decision maker. We applied dynamic utility to the equal division in dove-dove contests in the hawk-dove game. Our results indicate that under the utility criterion, the half-share of utility becomes proportional to a player's current wealth. Our results are consistent with studies of the sense of fairness in animals, which indicate that the quantitative criterion has greater validity than the utility criterion. We also find that traditional analyses of repeated games must be reevaluated.
Is expected utility theory normative for medical decision making?

PubMed

Cohen, B J

1996-01-01

Expected utility theory is felt by its proponents to be a normative theory of decision making under uncertainty. The theory starts with some simple axioms that are held to be rules that any rational person would follow. It can be shown that if one adheres to these axioms, a numerical quantity, generally referred to as utility, can be assigned to each possible outcome, with the preferred course of action being that which has the highest expected utility. One of these axioms, the independence principle, is controversial, and is frequently violated in experimental situations. Proponents of the theory hold that these violations are irrational. The independence principle is simply an axiom dictating consistency among preferences, in that it dictates that a rational agent should hold a specified preference given another stated preference. When applied to preferences between lotteries, the independence principle can be demonstrated to be a rule that is followed only when preferences are formed in a particular way. The logic of expected utility theory is that this demonstration proves that preferences should be formed in this way. An alternative interpretation is that this demonstrates that the independence principle is not a valid general rule of consistency, but in particular, is a rule that must be followed if one is to consistently apply the decision rule "choose the lottery that has the highest expected utility." This decision rule must be justified on its own terms as a valid rule of rationality by demonstration that violation would lead to decisions that conflict with the decision maker's goals. This rule does not appear to be suitable for medical decisions because often these are one-time decisions in which expectation, a long-run property of a random variable, would not seem to be applicable. This is particularly true for those decisions involving a non-trivial risk of death.
A multicriteria decision analysis model and risk assessment framework for carbon capture and storage.

PubMed

Humphries Choptiany, John Michael; Pelot, Ronald

2014-09-01

Multicriteria decision analysis (MCDA) has been applied to various energy problems to incorporate a variety of qualitative and quantitative criteria, usually spanning environmental, social, engineering, and economic fields. MCDA and associated methods such as life-cycle assessments and cost-benefit analysis can also include risk analysis to address uncertainties in criteria estimates. One technology now being assessed to help mitigate climate change is carbon capture and storage (CCS). CCS is a new process that captures CO2 emissions from fossil-fueled power plants and injects them into geological reservoirs for storage. It presents a unique challenge to decisionmakers (DMs) due to its technical complexity, range of environmental, social, and economic impacts, variety of stakeholders, and long time spans. The authors have developed a risk assessment model using a MCDA approach for CCS decisions such as selecting between CO2 storage locations and choosing among different mitigation actions for reducing risks. The model includes uncertainty measures for several factors, utility curve representations of all variables, Monte Carlo simulation, and sensitivity analysis. This article uses a CCS scenario example to demonstrate the development and application of the model based on data derived from published articles and publicly available sources. The model allows high-level DMs to better understand project risks and the tradeoffs inherent in modern, complex energy decisions. © 2014 Society for Risk Analysis.
Characterising bias in regulatory risk and decision analysis: An analysis of heuristics applied in health technology appraisal, chemicals regulation, and climate change governance.

PubMed

MacGillivray, Brian H

2017-08-01

In many environmental and public health domains, heuristic methods of risk and decision analysis must be relied upon, either because problem structures are ambiguous, reliable data is lacking, or decisions are urgent. This introduces an additional source of uncertainty beyond model and measurement error - uncertainty stemming from relying on inexact inference rules. Here we identify and analyse heuristics used to prioritise risk objects, to discriminate between signal and noise, to weight evidence, to construct models, to extrapolate beyond datasets, and to make policy. Some of these heuristics are based on causal generalisations, yet can misfire when these relationships are presumed rather than tested (e.g. surrogates in clinical trials). Others are conventions designed to confer stability to decision analysis, yet which may introduce serious error when applied ritualistically (e.g. significance testing). Some heuristics can be traced back to formal justifications, but only subject to strong assumptions that are often violated in practical applications. Heuristic decision rules (e.g. feasibility rules) in principle act as surrogates for utility maximisation or distributional concerns, yet in practice may neglect costs and benefits, be based on arbitrary thresholds, and be prone to gaming. We highlight the problem of rule-entrenchment, where analytical choices that are in principle contestable are arbitrarily fixed in practice, masking uncertainty and potentially introducing bias. Strategies for making risk and decision analysis more rigorous include: formalising the assumptions and scope conditions under which heuristics should be applied; testing rather than presuming their underlying empirical or theoretical justifications; using sensitivity analysis, simulations, multiple bias analysis, and deductive systems of inference (e.g. directed acyclic graphs) to characterise rule uncertainty and refine heuristics; adopting "recovery schemes" to correct for known biases; and basing decision rules on clearly articulated values and evidence, rather than convention. Copyright © 2017. Published by Elsevier Ltd.
Laboratory cost control and financial management software.

PubMed

Mayer, M

1998-02-09

Economical constraints within the health care system advocate the introduction of tighter control of costs in clinical laboratories. Detailed cost information forms the basis for cost control and financial management. Based on the cost information, proper decisions regarding priorities, procedure choices, personnel policies and investments can be made. This presentation outlines some principles of cost analysis, describes common limitations of cost analysis, and exemplifies use of software to achieve optimized cost control. One commercially available cost analysis software, LabCost, is described in some detail. In addition to provision of cost information, LabCost also serves as a general management tool for resource handling, accounting, inventory management and billing. The application of LabCost in the selection process of a new high throughput analyzer for a large clinical chemistry service is taken as an example for decisions that can be assisted by cost evaluation. It is concluded that laboratory management that wisely utilizes cost analysis to support the decision-making process will undoubtedly have a clear advantage over those laboratories that fail to employ cost considerations to guide their actions.

Predicting individual differences in decision-making process from signature movement styles: an illustrative study of leaders.

PubMed

Connors, Brenda L; Rende, Richard; Colton, Timothy J

2013-01-01

There has been a surge of interest in examining the utility of methods for capturing individual differences in decision-making style. We illustrate the potential offered by Movement Pattern Analysis (MPA), an observational methodology that has been used in business and by the US Department of Defense to record body movements that provide predictive insight into individual differences in decision-making motivations and actions. Twelve military officers participated in an intensive 2-h interview that permitted detailed and fine-grained observation and coding of signature movements by trained practitioners using MPA. Three months later, these subjects completed four hypothetical decision-making tasks in which the amount of information sought out before coming to a decision, as well as the time spent on the tasks, were under the partial control of the subject. A composite MPA indicator of how a person allocates decision-making actions and motivations to balance both Assertion (exertion of tangible movement effort on the environment to make something occur) and Perspective (through movements that support shaping in the body to perceive and create a suitable viewpoint for action) was highly correlated with the total number of information draws and total response time-individuals high on Assertion reached for less information and had faster response times than those high on Perspective. Discussion focuses on the utility of using movement-based observational measures to capture individual differences in decision-making style and the implications for application in applied settings geared toward investigations of experienced leaders and world statesmen where individuality rules the day.
Predicting individual differences in decision-making process from signature movement styles: an illustrative study of leaders

PubMed Central

Connors, Brenda L.; Rende, Richard; Colton, Timothy J.

2013-01-01

There has been a surge of interest in examining the utility of methods for capturing individual differences in decision-making style. We illustrate the potential offered by Movement Pattern Analysis (MPA), an observational methodology that has been used in business and by the US Department of Defense to record body movements that provide predictive insight into individual differences in decision-making motivations and actions. Twelve military officers participated in an intensive 2-h interview that permitted detailed and fine-grained observation and coding of signature movements by trained practitioners using MPA. Three months later, these subjects completed four hypothetical decision-making tasks in which the amount of information sought out before coming to a decision, as well as the time spent on the tasks, were under the partial control of the subject. A composite MPA indicator of how a person allocates decision-making actions and motivations to balance both Assertion (exertion of tangible movement effort on the environment to make something occur) and Perspective (through movements that support shaping in the body to perceive and create a suitable viewpoint for action) was highly correlated with the total number of information draws and total response time—individuals high on Assertion reached for less information and had faster response times than those high on Perspective. Discussion focuses on the utility of using movement-based observational measures to capture individual differences in decision-making style and the implications for application in applied settings geared toward investigations of experienced leaders and world statesmen where individuality rules the day. PMID:24069012
Multiple-attribute group decision making with different formats of preference information on attributes.

PubMed

Xu, Zeshui

2007-12-01

Interval utility values, interval fuzzy preference relations, and interval multiplicative preference relations are three common uncertain-preference formats used by decision-makers to provide their preference information in the process of decision making under fuzziness. This paper is devoted in investigating multiple-attribute group-decision-making problems where the attribute values are not precisely known but the value ranges can be obtained, and the decision-makers provide their preference information over attributes by three different uncertain-preference formats i.e., 1) interval utility values; 2) interval fuzzy preference relations; and 3) interval multiplicative preference relations. We first utilize some functions to normalize the uncertain decision matrix and then transform it into an expected decision matrix. We establish a goal-programming model to integrate the expected decision matrix and all three different uncertain-preference formats from which the attribute weights and the overall attribute values of alternatives can be obtained. Then, we use the derived overall attribute values to get the ranking of the given alternatives and to select the best one(s). The model not only can reflect both the subjective considerations of all decision-makers and the objective information but also can avoid losing and distorting the given objective and subjective decision information in the process of information integration. Furthermore, we establish some models to solve the multiple-attribute group-decision-making problems with three different preference formats: 1) utility values; 2) fuzzy preference relations; and 3) multiplicative preference relations. Finally, we illustrate the applicability and effectiveness of the developed models with two practical examples.
Constraints, Resources, and Interpretative Schema: Explorations of Teachers' Decisions to Utilize, Under-Utilize or Ignore Technology

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Pereira-Leon, Maura J.

2010-01-01

This three-year study examined how participation in a 10-month technology-enhanced professional development program (PDP) influenced K-12 teachers' decisions to utilize or ignore technology into teaching practices. Carspecken's (1996) qualitative research methodology of Critical Ethnography provided the theoretical and methodological framework to…
NREL's System Advisor Model Simplifies Complex Energy Analysis (Fact Sheet)

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Not Available

2015-01-01

NREL has developed a tool -- the System Advisor Model (SAM) -- that can help decision makers analyze cost, performance, and financing of any size grid-connected solar, wind, or geothermal power project. Manufacturers, engineering and consulting firms, research and development firms, utilities, developers, venture capital firms, and international organizations use SAM for end-to-end analysis that helps determine whether and how to make investments in renewable energy projects.
Cost-Utility Analysis of Bariatric Surgery in Italy: Results of Decision-Analytic Modelling

PubMed Central

Lucchese, Marcello; Borisenko, Oleg; Mantovani, Lorenzo Giovanni; Cortesi, Paolo Angelo; Cesana, Giancarlo; Adam, Daniel; Burdukova, Elisabeth; Lukyanov, Vasily; Di Lorenzo, Nicola

2017-01-01

Objective To evaluate the cost-effectiveness of bariatric surgery in Italy from a third-party payer perspective over a medium-term (10 years) and a long-term (lifetime) horizon. Methods A state-transition Markov model was developed, in which patients may experience surgery, post-surgery complications, diabetes mellitus type 2, cardiovascular diseases or die. Transition probabilities, costs, and utilities were obtained from the Italian and international literature. Three types of surgeries were considered: gastric bypass, sleeve gastrectomy, and adjustable gastric banding. A base-case analysis was performed for the population, the characteristics of which were obtained from surgery candidates in Italy. Results In the base-case analysis, over 10 years, bariatric surgery led to cost increment of EUR 2,661 and generated additional 1.1 quality-adjusted life years (QALYs). Over a lifetime, surgery led to savings of EUR 8,649, additional 0.5 life years and 3.2 QALYs. Bariatric surgery was cost-effective at 10 years with an incremental cost-effectiveness ratio of EUR 2,412/QALY and dominant over conservative management over a lifetime. Conclusion In a comprehensive decision analytic model, a current mix of surgical methods for bariatric surgery was cost-effective at 10 years and cost-saving over the lifetime of the Italian patient cohort considered in this analysis. PMID:28601866
Cost-Utility of "Doxorubicin and Cyclophosphamide" versus "Gemcitabine and Paclitaxel" for Treatment of Patients with Breast Cancer in Iran.

PubMed

Hatam, Nahid; Askarian, Mehrdad; Javan-Noghabi, Javad; Ahmadloo, Niloofar; Mohammadianpanah, Mohammad

2015-01-01

A cost-utility analysis was performed to assess the cost-utility of neoadjuvant chemotherapy regimens containing doxorubicin and cyclophosphamide (AC) versus paclitaxel and gemcitabine (PG) for locally advanced breast cancer patients in Iran. This cross-sectional study in Namazi hospital in Shiraz, in the south of Iran covered 64 breast cancer patients. According to the random numbers, the patients were divided into two groups, 32 receiving AC and 32 PG. Costs were identified and measured from a community perspective. These items included medical and non-medical direct and indirect costs. In this study, a data collection form was used. To assess the utility of the two regimens, the European Organization for Research and Treatment of Cancer Quality of Life Questionnaire-Core30 (EORTC QLQ-C30) was applied. Using a decision tree, we calculated the expected costs and quality adjusted life years (QALYs) for both methods; also, the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio was assessed. The results of the decision tree showed that in the AC arm, the expected cost was 39,170 US$ and the expected QALY was 3.39 and in the PG arm, the expected cost was 43,336 dollars and the expected QALY was 2.64. Sensitivity analysis showed the cost effectiveness of the AC and ICER=-5535 US$. Overall, the results showed that AC to be superior to PG in treatment of patients with breast cancer, being less costly and more effective.
AHP for Risk Management Based on Expected Utility Theory

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Azuma, Rumiko; Miyagi, Hayao

This paper presents a model of decision-making considering the risk assessment. The conventional evaluation in AHP is considered to be a kind of utility. When dealing with the risk, however, it is necessary to consider the probability of damage. In order to take risk into decision-making problem, we construct AHP based on expected utility. The risk is considered as a related element of criterion rather than criterion itself. The expected utility is integrated, considering that satisfaction is positive utility and damage by risk is negative utility. Then, evaluation in AHP is executed using the expected utility.
E-DECIDER Decision Support Gateway For Earthquake Disaster Response

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Glasscoe, M. T.; Stough, T. M.; Parker, J. W.; Burl, M. C.; Donnellan, A.; Blom, R. G.; Pierce, M. E.; Wang, J.; Ma, Y.; Rundle, J. B.; Yoder, M. R.

2013-12-01

Earthquake Data Enhanced Cyber-Infrastructure for Disaster Evaluation and Response (E-DECIDER) is a NASA-funded project developing capabilities for decision-making utilizing remote sensing data and modeling software in order to provide decision support for earthquake disaster management and response. E-DECIDER incorporates earthquake forecasting methodology and geophysical modeling tools developed through NASA's QuakeSim project in order to produce standards-compliant map data products to aid in decision-making following an earthquake. Remote sensing and geodetic data, in conjunction with modeling and forecasting tools, help provide both long-term planning information for disaster management decision makers as well as short-term information following earthquake events (i.e. identifying areas where the greatest deformation and damage has occurred and emergency services may need to be focused). E-DECIDER utilizes a service-based GIS model for its cyber-infrastructure in order to produce standards-compliant products for different user types with multiple service protocols (such as KML, WMS, WFS, and WCS). The goal is to make complex GIS processing and domain-specific analysis tools more accessible to general users through software services as well as provide system sustainability through infrastructure services. The system comprises several components, which include: a GeoServer for thematic mapping and data distribution, a geospatial database for storage and spatial analysis, web service APIs, including simple-to-use REST APIs for complex GIS functionalities, and geoprocessing tools including python scripts to produce standards-compliant data products. These are then served to the E-DECIDER decision support gateway (http://e-decider.org), the E-DECIDER mobile interface, and to the Department of Homeland Security decision support middleware UICDS (Unified Incident Command and Decision Support). The E-DECIDER decision support gateway features a web interface that delivers map data products including deformation modeling results (slope change and strain magnitude) and aftershock forecasts, with remote sensing change detection results under development. These products are event triggered (from the USGS earthquake feed) and will be posted to event feeds on the E-DECIDER webpage and accessible via the mobile interface and UICDS. E-DECIDER also features a KML service that provides infrastructure information from the FEMA HAZUS database through UICDS and the mobile interface. The back-end GIS service architecture and front-end gateway components form a decision support system that is designed for ease-of-use and extensibility for end-users.
Health Information Obtained From the Internet and Changes in Medical Decision Making: Questionnaire Development and Cross-Sectional Survey.

PubMed

Chen, Yen-Yuan; Li, Chia-Ming; Liang, Jyh-Chong; Tsai, Chin-Chung

2018-02-12

The increasing utilization of the internet has provided a better opportunity for people to search online for health information, which was not easily available to them in the past. Studies reported that searching on the internet for health information may potentially influence an individual's decision making to change her health-seeking behaviors. The objectives of this study were to (1) develop and validate 2 questionnaires to estimate the strategies of problem-solving in medicine and utilization of online health information, (2) determine the association between searching online for health information and utilization of online health information, and (3) determine the association between online medical help-seeking and utilization of online health information. The Problem Solving in Medicine and Online Health Information Utilization questionnaires were developed and implemented in this study. We conducted confirmatory factor analysis to examine the structure of the factor loadings and intercorrelations for all the items and dimensions. We employed Pearson correlation coefficients for examining the correlations between each dimension of the Problem Solving in Medicine questionnaire and each dimension of the Online Health Information Utilization questionnaire. Furthermore, we conducted structure equation modeling for examining the possible linkage between each of the 6 dimensions of the Problem Solving in Medicine questionnaire and each of the 3 dimensions of the Online Health Information Utilization questionnaire. A total of 457 patients participated in this study. Pearson correlation coefficients ranged from .12 to .41, all with statistical significance, implying that each dimension of the Problem Solving in Medicine questionnaire was significantly associated with each dimension of the Online Health Information Utilization questionnaire. Patients with the strategy of online health information search for solving medical problems positively predicted changes in medical decision making (P=.01), consulting with others (P<.001), and promoting self-efficacy on deliberating the online health information (P<.001) based on the online health information they obtained. Present health care professionals have a responsibility to acknowledge that patients' medical decision making may be changed based on additional online health information. Health care professionals should assist patients' medical decision making by initiating as much dialogue with patients as possible, providing credible and convincing health information to patients, and guiding patients where to look for accurate, comprehensive, and understandable online health information. By doing so, patients will avoid becoming overwhelmed with extraneous and often conflicting health information. Educational interventions to promote health information seekers' ability to identify, locate, obtain, read, understand, evaluate, and effectively use online health information are highly encouraged. ©Yen-Yuan Chen, Chia-Ming Li, Jyh-Chong Liang, Chin-Chung Tsai. Originally published in the Journal of Medical Internet Research (http://www.jmir.org), 12.02.2018.
Application of Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) in the analysis of the fuel efficiency in the automobile industry with the utilization of Natural Fiber Polymer Composites (NFPC)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jayamani, E.; Perera, D. S.; Soon, K. H.; Bakri, M. K. B.

2017-04-01

A systematic method of material analysis aiming for fuel efficiency improvement with the utilization of natural fiber reinforced polymer matrix composites in the automobile industry is proposed. A multi-factor based decision criteria with Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP) was used and executed through MATLAB to achieve improved fuel efficiency through the weight reduction of vehicular components by effective comparison between two engine hood designs. The reduction was simulated by utilizing natural fiber polymer composites with thermoplastic polypropylene (PP) as the matrix polymer and benchmarked against a synthetic based composite component. Results showed that PP with 35% of flax fiber loading achieved a 0.4% improvement in fuel efficiency, and it was the highest among the 27 candidate fibers.
Advance Directive in End of Life Decision-Making among the Yoruba of South-Western Nigeria

PubMed Central

Jegede, Ayodele Samuel; Adegoke, Olufunke Olufunsho

2017-01-01

End-of-life decision making is value-laden within the context of culture and bioethics. Also, ethics committee role is difficult to understand on this, thus need for ethnomethodological perspective in an expanding bioethical age. Anthropological approach was utilized to document Yoruba definition and perspective of death, cultural beliefs about end-of-life decision making, factors influencing it and ethics committee role. Interviews were conducted among selected Yoruba resident in Akinyele LGA, Oyo State, Nigeria. Content analytical approach was used for data analysis. Yoruba culture, death is socially constructed having spiritual, physical and social significance. Relationship between the dying and significant others influences decision making. Hierarchy of authority informs implementing traditional advance directive. Socialization, gender, patriarchy, religious belief and tradition are major considerations in end-of-life decision making. Awareness, resource allocation and advocacy are important ethics committees’ roles. Further research into cultural diversity of end-of-life decision making will strengthen ethical practice in health care delivery. PMID:28344984
Advance Directive in End of Life Decision-Making among the Yoruba of South-Western Nigeria.

PubMed

Jegede, Ayodele Samuel; Adegoke, Olufunke Olufunsho

2016-11-01

End-of-life decision making is value-laden within the context of culture and bioethics. Also, ethics committee role is difficult to understand on this, thus need for ethnomethodological perspective in an expanding bioethical age. Anthropological approach was utilized to document Yoruba definition and perspective of death, cultural beliefs about end-of-life decision making, factors influencing it and ethics committee role. Interviews were conducted among selected Yoruba resident in Akinyele LGA, Oyo State, Nigeria. Content analytical approach was used for data analysis. Yoruba culture, death is socially constructed having spiritual, physical and social significance. Relationship between the dying and significant others influences decision making. Hierarchy of authority informs implementing traditional advance directive. Socialization, gender, patriarchy, religious belief and tradition are major considerations in end-of-life decision making. Awareness, resource allocation and advocacy are important ethics committees' roles. Further research into cultural diversity of end-of-life decision making will strengthen ethical practice in health care delivery.
Decision analysis for a data collection system of patient-controlled analgesia with a multi-attribute utility model.

PubMed

Lee, I-Jung; Huang, Shih-Yu; Tsou, Mei-Yung; Chan, Kwok-Hon; Chang, Kuang-Yi

2010-10-01

Data collection systems are very important for the practice of patient-controlled analgesia (PCA). This study aimed to evaluate 3 PCA data collection systems and selected the most favorable system with the aid of multiattribute utility (MAU) theory. We developed a questionnaire with 10 items to evaluate the PCA data collection system and 1 item for overall satisfaction based on MAU theory. Three systems were compared in the questionnaire, including a paper record, optic card reader and personal digital assistant (PDA). A pilot study demonstrated a good internal and test-retest reliability of the questionnaire. A weighted utility score combining the relative importance of individual items assigned by each participant and their responses to each question was calculated for each system. Sensitivity analyses with distinct weighting protocols were conducted to evaluate the stability of the final results. Thirty potential users of a PCA data collection system were recruited in the study. The item "easy to use" had the highest median rank and received the heaviest mean weight among all items. MAU analysis showed that the PDA system had a higher utility score than that in the other 2 systems. Sensitivity analyses revealed that both inverse and reciprocal weighting processes favored the PDA system. High correlations between overall satisfaction and MAU scores from miscellaneous weighting protocols suggested a good predictive validity of our MAU-based questionnaire. The PDA system was selected as the most favorable PCA data collection system by the MAU analysis. The item "easy to use" was the most important attribute of the PCA data collection system. MAU theory can evaluate alternatives by taking into account individual preferences of stakeholders and aid in better decision-making. Copyright © 2010 Elsevier. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
[Breast cancer and pregnancy: decision making and the point of view of the mother].

PubMed

Eisinger, François; Noizet, Agnès

2002-09-01

For the treatment of breast cancer, modifications of decision making related to pregnancy could be assessed through three questions. Why a decision had been chosen? In that case, the hypothesis is that decisions are based on the expected utility. The theory assumes weighting and computation of complete possibilities with their associated probabilities and values. However values exhibits a wide inter-individual variation range. Therefore the predictability of choice based on this model is indeed very low. Furthermore it is likely that the willingness of pregnancy after breast cancer contains besides classic constituents of appeals of motherhood, a specific meaning of recovery both of health and femininity. The second question: who is in charge of the decision? And under the paradigm of autonomy, women' decision is, merely by itself, the right decision. The last question is how? For some situations for which foreseeing is quiet complex, the value of the process in itself is increased and could help the end-oriented or self-determined decision. Casuistic analysis could therefore improve women' decisions. The issue is not only about decision but also related to patient-physician relationship, about an issue that is not only a biomedical problem.
Patient or physician preferences for decision analysis: the prenatal genetic testing decision.

PubMed

Heckerling, P S; Verp, M S; Albert, N

1999-01-01

The choice between amniocentesis and chorionic villus sampling for prenatal genetic testing involves tradeoffs of the benefits and risks of the tests. Decision analysis is a method of explicitly weighing such tradeoffs. The authors examined the relationship between prenatal test choices made by patients and the choices prescribed by decision-analytic models based on their preferences, and separate models based on the preferences of their physicians. Preferences were assessed using written scenarios describing prenatal testing outcomes, and were recorded on linear rating scales. After adjustment for sociodemographic and obstetric confounders, test choice was significantly associated with the choice of decision models based on patient preferences (odds ratio 4.44; Cl, 2.53 to 7.78), but not with the choice of models based on the preferences of the physicians (odds ratio 1.60; Cl, 0.79 to 3.26). Agreement between decision analyses based on patient preferences and on physician preferences was little better than chance (kappa = 0.085+/-0.063). These results were robust both to changes in the decision-analytic probabilities and to changes in the model structure itself to simulate non-expected utility decision rules. The authors conclude that patient but not physician preferences, incorporated in decision models, correspond to the choice of amniocentesis or chorionic villus sampling made by the patient. Nevertheless, because patient preferences were assessed after referral for genetic testing, prospective preference-assessment studies will be necessary to confirm this association.
Cover estimations using object-based image analysis rule sets developed across multiple scales in pinyon-juniper woodlands

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Numerous studies have been conducted that evaluate the utility of remote sensing for monitoring and assessing vegetation and ground cover to support land management decisions and complement ground-measurements. However, few land cover comparisons have been made using high-resolution imagery and obj...
Game Theory, Decision Theory, and Social Choice Theory in the Context of a New Theory of Equity

DTIC Science & Technology

1978-12-01

Press of Harvard University. Sen , Amartya , 1977, "On Weights and Measures: Informational Constraints in Social Welfare Analysis," Econometrica, Vol...this requirement is a natural consequence of a setup that rules out cardinal utility, as Arrow (1978) and Sen (1977) have pointed out in different
Analysis of market penetration of renewable energy alternatives under uncertain and carbon constrained world

EPA Science Inventory

Future energy prices and supply, availability and costs can have a significant impact on how fast and cost effectively we could abate carbon emissions. Two-staged decision making methods embedded in U.S. EPA's MARKAL modeling system will be utilized to find the most robust mitig...
School Governance and the Pursuit of Democratic Participation: Lessons from South Africa

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Lewis, Suzanne Grant; Naidoo, Jordan

2006-01-01

This article examines experiences in Gauteng and KwaZulu-Natal provinces with devolved school governance, introduced in 1996 to promote democratic participation in education decision making. Utilizing the ''theory of action'' framework, this analysis is an effort to de-center the school governance debate by moving from a central government…

Emotionally Intelligent Leadership: An Analysis of Targeted Interventions for Aspiring School Leaders in Texas

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Kearney, W. Sean; Kelsey, Cheryl; Sinkfield, Carolin

2014-01-01

This study measures the impact of targeted interventions on the emotional intelligence of aspiring principals. The interventions utilized were designed by Nelson and Low (2011) to increase emotionally intelligent leadership skills in the following six areas: social awareness/active listening; anxiety management; decision making; appropriate use of…
Educators' Use of Research and Other Evidence within Local Grant Foundation Applications

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Malin, Joel R.

2016-01-01

In this study, educators' requests for foundation grant funding to purchase desired educational materials or services were examined. Specifically, this study sought to review to what extent, and in what manner, educators utilize research and other forms of evidence to support their decision making. Data analysis revealed several themes. Although…
A Predictive Model of Inquiry to Enrollment

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Goenner, Cullen F.; Pauls, Kenton

2006-01-01

The purpose of this paper is to build a predictive model of enrollment that provides data driven analysis to improve undergraduate recruitment efforts. We utilize an inquiry model, which examines the enrollment decisions of students that have made contact with our institution, a medium sized, public, Doctoral I university. A student, who makes an…
Health-state utilities in a prisoner population: a cross-sectional survey

PubMed Central

Chong, Christopher AKY; Li, Sicong; Nguyen, Geoffrey C; Sutton, Andrew; Levy, Michael H; Butler, Tony; Krahn, Murray D; Thein, Hla-Hla

2009-01-01

Background Health-state utilities for prisoners have not been described. Methods We used data from a 1996 cross-sectional survey of Australian prisoners (n = 734). Respondent-level SF-36 data was transformed into utility scores by both the SF-6D and Nichol's method. Socio-demographic and clinical predictors of SF-6D utility were assessed in univariate analyses and a multivariate general linear model. Results The overall mean SF-6D utility was 0.725 (SD 0.119). When subdivided by various medical conditions, prisoner SF-6D utilities ranged from 0.620 for angina to 0.764 for those with none/mild depressive symptoms. Utilities derived by the Nichol's method were higher than SF-6D scores, often by more than 0.1. In multivariate analysis, significant independent predictors of worse utility included female gender, increasing age, increasing number of comorbidities and more severe depressive symptoms. Conclusion The utilities presented may prove useful for future economic and decision models evaluating prison-based health programs. PMID:19715571
Supplier Selection Using Weighted Utility Additive Method

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Karande, Prasad; Chakraborty, Shankar

2015-10-01

Supplier selection is a multi-criteria decision-making (MCDM) problem which mainly involves evaluating a number of available suppliers according to a set of common criteria for choosing the best one to meet the organizational needs. For any manufacturing or service organization, selecting the right upstream suppliers is a key success factor that will significantly reduce purchasing cost, increase downstream customer satisfaction and improve competitive ability. The past researchers have attempted to solve the supplier selection problem employing different MCDM techniques which involve active participation of the decision makers in the decision-making process. This paper deals with the application of weighted utility additive (WUTA) method for solving supplier selection problems. The WUTA method, an extension of utility additive approach, is based on ordinal regression and consists of building a piece-wise linear additive decision model from a preference structure using linear programming (LP). It adopts preference disaggregation principle and addresses the decision-making activities through operational models which need implicit preferences in the form of a preorder of reference alternatives or a subset of these alternatives present in the process. The preferential preorder provided by the decision maker is used as a restriction of a LP problem, which has its own objective function, minimization of the sum of the errors associated with the ranking of each alternative. Based on a given reference ranking of alternatives, one or more additive utility functions are derived. Using these utility functions, the weighted utilities for individual criterion values are combined into an overall weighted utility for a given alternative. It is observed that WUTA method, having a sound mathematical background, can provide accurate ranking to the candidate suppliers and choose the best one to fulfill the organizational requirements. Two real time examples are illustrated to prove its applicability and appropriateness in solving supplier selection problems.
75 FR 45494 - Implementation of Section 224 of the Act; a National Broadband Plan for Our Future

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2010-08-03

... attachers make informed decisions and should facilitate the attachment process. If a utility denies an... forward, and whether utilities' decisions regarding the use of boxing and bracketing should also be made... nondiscriminatory access to any pole, duct, conduit, or right-of-way owned or controlled by a utility. However, the...
How can multi criteria decision analysis support value assessment of pharmaceuticals? - Findings from a systematic literature review.

PubMed

Kolasa, Katarzyna; Zah, Vladimir; Kowalczyk, Marta

2018-04-29

As budget constraints become more and more visible, there is growing recognition for greater transparency and greater stakeholders' engagement in the pharmaceuticals' pric-ing&reimbursement (P&R) decision making. New frameworks of drugs' value assessments are searched for. Among them, the multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA) receives more and more attention. In 2014, ISPOR established Task Force to provide methodological recommendations for MCDA utilization in the health care decision making. Still, there is not so much knowledge about the real life experience with MCDA's adaptation to the P&R processes. Areas covered: A systematic literature review was performed to understand the rationale for MCDA adaptation, methodology used as well as its impact on P&R outcomes. Expert commentary: In total 102 hits were found through the search of databases, out of which 18 publications were selected. Although limited in scope, the review highlighted how MCDA can im-prove the decision making processes not only regarding pricing & reimbursement but also contribute to the the risk benefit assessment as well as optimization of treatment outcomes. Still none of re-viewed studies did report how MCDA results actually impacted the real life settings.
Prescriptive models to support decision making in genetics.

PubMed

Pauker, S G; Pauker, S P

1987-01-01

Formal prescriptive models can help patients and clinicians better understand the risks and uncertainties they face and better formulate well-reasoned decisions. Using Bayes rule, the clinician can interpret pedigrees, historical data, physical findings and laboratory data, providing individualized probabilities of various diagnoses and outcomes of pregnancy. With the advent of screening programs for genetic disease, it becomes increasingly important to consider the prior probabilities of disease when interpreting an abnormal screening test result. Decision trees provide a convenient formalism for structuring diagnostic, therapeutic and reproductive decisions; such trees can also enhance communication between clinicians and patients. Utility theory provides a mechanism for patients to understand the choices they face and to communicate their attitudes about potential reproductive outcomes in a manner which encourages the integration of those attitudes into appropriate decisions. Using a decision tree, the relevant probabilities and the patients' utilities, physicians can estimate the relative worth of various medical and reproductive options by calculating the expected utility of each. By performing relevant sensitivity analyses, clinicians and patients can understand the impact of various soft data, including the patients' attitudes toward various health outcomes, on the decision making process. Formal clinical decision analytic models can provide deeper understanding and improved decision making in clinical genetics.
Integrating multi-criteria decision analysis for a GIS-based hazardous waste landfill sitting in Kurdistan Province, western Iran

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Sharifi, Mozafar; Hadidi, Mosslem; Vessali, Elahe

2009-10-15

The evaluation of a hazardous waste disposal site is a complicated process because it requires data from diverse social and environmental fields. These data often involve processing of a significant amount of spatial information which can be used by GIS as an important tool for land use suitability analysis. This paper presents a multi-criteria decision analysis alongside with a geospatial analysis for the selection of hazardous waste landfill sites in Kurdistan Province, western Iran. The study employs a two-stage analysis to provide a spatial decision support system for hazardous waste management in a typically under developed region. The purpose ofmore » GIS was to perform an initial screening process to eliminate unsuitable land followed by utilization of a multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA) to identify the most suitable sites using the information provided by the regional experts with reference to new chosen criteria. Using 21 exclusionary criteria, as input layers, masked maps were prepared. Creating various intermediate or analysis map layers a final overlay map was obtained representing areas for hazardous waste landfill sites. In order to evaluate different landfill sites produced by the overlaying a landfill suitability index system was developed representing cumulative effects of relative importance (weights) and suitability values of 14 non-exclusionary criteria including several criteria resulting from field observation. Using this suitability index 15 different sites were visited and based on the numerical evaluation provided by MCDA most suitable sites were determined.« less
Integrating multi-criteria decision analysis for a GIS-based hazardous waste landfill sitting in Kurdistan Province, western Iran.

PubMed

Sharifi, Mozafar; Hadidi, Mosslem; Vessali, Elahe; Mosstafakhani, Parasto; Taheri, Kamal; Shahoie, Saber; Khodamoradpour, Mehran

2009-10-01

The evaluation of a hazardous waste disposal site is a complicated process because it requires data from diverse social and environmental fields. These data often involve processing of a significant amount of spatial information which can be used by GIS as an important tool for land use suitability analysis. This paper presents a multi-criteria decision analysis alongside with a geospatial analysis for the selection of hazardous waste landfill sites in Kurdistan Province, western Iran. The study employs a two-stage analysis to provide a spatial decision support system for hazardous waste management in a typically under developed region. The purpose of GIS was to perform an initial screening process to eliminate unsuitable land followed by utilization of a multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA) to identify the most suitable sites using the information provided by the regional experts with reference to new chosen criteria. Using 21 exclusionary criteria, as input layers, masked maps were prepared. Creating various intermediate or analysis map layers a final overlay map was obtained representing areas for hazardous waste landfill sites. In order to evaluate different landfill sites produced by the overlaying a landfill suitability index system was developed representing cumulative effects of relative importance (weights) and suitability values of 14 non-exclusionary criteria including several criteria resulting from field observation. Using this suitability index 15 different sites were visited and based on the numerical evaluation provided by MCDA most suitable sites were determined.
Exploring theoretical frameworks for the analysis of fertility fluctuations.

PubMed

Micheli, G A

1988-05-01

The Easterlin theory, popular during the 1970s, explained population fluctuations in terms of maximization of choice, based on the evaluation of previously acquired information. Fluctuations in procreational patterns were seen as responses to conflict between 2 consecutive generations in which the propensity to procreate is inversely related to cohort size. However, the number of demographic trends not directly explainable by the hypothesis imply that either the model must be extended over a longer time frame or that there has been a drastic change of regime, i.e., a basic change in popular attitudes which determine decision making behavior. 4 strategic principles underlie reproductive decisions: primary adaptation, economic utility, norm internalization, and identity reinforcement. The decision-making process is determined by the relative importance of these 4 principles. Primary adaptation implies inertia, i.e., nondecision. Economic utility implies the use of rational choice to maximize economic gain. Norm internalization implies conforming to the behavior of one's sociocultural peers as if it were one's own choice. Identity reinforcement implies that one decides to reproduce because procreation is a way of extending one's identity forward in time. The 2 active decision-making attitudes, economic rationality and identity reinforcement, are strategically both antagonistic and complementary. This polarity of behavior lends itself to analysis in terms of the predator-prey model, in which population is seen as the predator and resources as the prey. However, in applying the model, one must keep in mind that the real demographic picture is not static and that it is subject to deformation by external forces.
Using Operational Analysis to Improve Access to Pulmonary Function Testing.

PubMed

Ip, Ada; Asamoah-Barnieh, Raymond; Bischak, Diane P; Davidson, Warren J; Flemons, W Ward; Pendharkar, Sachin R

2016-01-01

Background. Timely pulmonary function testing is crucial to improving diagnosis and treatment of pulmonary diseases. Perceptions of poor access at an academic pulmonary function laboratory prompted analysis of system demand and capacity to identify factors contributing to poor access. Methods. Surveys and interviews identified stakeholder perspectives on operational processes and access challenges. Retrospective data on testing demand and resource capacity was analyzed to understand utilization of testing resources. Results. Qualitative analysis demonstrated that stakeholder groups had discrepant views on access and capacity in the laboratory. Mean daily resource utilization was 0.64 (SD 0.15), with monthly average utilization consistently less than 0.75. Reserved testing slots for subspecialty clinics were poorly utilized, leaving many testing slots unfilled. When subspecialty demand exceeded number of reserved slots, there was sufficient capacity in the pulmonary function schedule to accommodate added demand. Findings were shared with stakeholders and influenced scheduling process improvements. Conclusion. This study highlights the importance of operational data to identify causes of poor access, guide system decision-making, and determine effects of improvement initiatives in a variety of healthcare settings. Importantly, simple operational analysis can help to improve efficiency of health systems with little or no added financial investment.
Utilization of accident databases and fuzzy sets to estimate frequency of HazMat transport accidents.

PubMed

Qiao, Yuanhua; Keren, Nir; Mannan, M Sam

2009-08-15

Risk assessment and management of transportation of hazardous materials (HazMat) require the estimation of accident frequency. This paper presents a methodology to estimate hazardous materials transportation accident frequency by utilizing publicly available databases and expert knowledge. The estimation process addresses route-dependent and route-independent variables. Negative binomial regression is applied to an analysis of the Department of Public Safety (DPS) accident database to derive basic accident frequency as a function of route-dependent variables, while the effects of route-independent variables are modeled by fuzzy logic. The integrated methodology provides the basis for an overall transportation risk analysis, which can be used later to develop a decision support system.
Deriving the expected utility of a predictive model when the utilities are uncertain.

PubMed

Cooper, Gregory F; Visweswaran, Shyam

2005-01-01

Predictive models are often constructed from clinical databases with the goal of eventually helping make better clinical decisions. Evaluating models using decision theory is therefore natural. When constructing a model using statistical and machine learning methods, however, we are often uncertain about precisely how the model will be used. Thus, decision-independent measures of classification performance, such as the area under an ROC curve, are popular. As a complementary method of evaluation, we investigate techniques for deriving the expected utility of a model under uncertainty about the model's utilities. We demonstrate an example of the application of this approach to the evaluation of two models that diagnose coronary artery disease.
42 CFR 456.238 - Time limits for final decision and notification of adverse decision.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-10-01

..., DEPARTMENT OF HEALTH AND HUMAN SERVICES (CONTINUED) MEDICAL ASSISTANCE PROGRAMS UTILIZATION CONTROL Utilization Control: Mental Hospitals Ur Plan: Review of Need for Continued Stay § 456.238 Time limits for...
Time management problems and discounted utility.

PubMed

König, Cornelius J; Kleinmann, Martin

2007-05-01

The lens of behavioral decision theory offers a new perspective for research on time management. The basic idea of this approach is that people discount future consequences of their time management decisions, meaning that they work on tasks with smaller but sooner outcomes rather than on tasks with larger but later outcomes. The authors performed 2 experimental studies to test whether people are sensitive to differences in the discounted utility of time management decisions. In Experiment 1, they used vignettes of typical time management situations; Experiment 2 was a laboratory simulation (an in-basket task that was part of a training assessment). Participants in both studies were German students. As expected, manipulating the discounted utility of options resulted in different time management decisions. In Experiment 1, reactions to time management situations were judged as less likely if the reactions had lower discounted utilities. In Experiment 2, people spent less time on an interruption.
Sophisticated approval voting, ignorance priors, and plurality heuristics: a behavioral social choice analysis in a Thurstonian framework.

PubMed

Regenwetter, Michel; Ho, Moon-Ho R; Tsetlin, Ilia

2007-10-01

This project reconciles historically distinct paradigms at the interface between individual and social choice theory, as well as between rational and behavioral decision theory. The authors combine a utility-maximizing prescriptive rule for sophisticated approval voting with the ignorance prior heuristic from behavioral decision research and two types of plurality heuristics to model approval voting behavior. When using a sincere plurality heuristic, voters simplify their decision process by voting for their single favorite candidate. When using a strategic plurality heuristic, voters strategically focus their attention on the 2 front-runners and vote for their preferred candidate among these 2. Using a hierarchy of Thurstonian random utility models, the authors implemented these different decision rules and tested them statistically on 7 real world approval voting elections. They cross-validated their key findings via a psychological Internet experiment. Although a substantial number of voters used the plurality heuristic in the real elections, they did so sincerely, not strategically. Moreover, even though Thurstonian models do not force such agreement, the results show, in contrast to common wisdom about social choice rules, that the sincere social orders by Condorcet, Borda, plurality, and approval voting are identical in all 7 elections and in the Internet experiment. PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2007 APA, all rights reserved.
A method for studying decision-making by guideline development groups.

PubMed

Gardner, Benjamin; Davidson, Rosemary; McAteer, John; Michie, Susan

2009-08-05

Multidisciplinary guideline development groups (GDGs) have considerable influence on UK healthcare policy and practice, but previous research suggests that research evidence is a variable influence on GDG recommendations. The Evidence into Recommendations (EiR) study has been set up to document social-psychological influences on GDG decision-making. In this paper we aim to evaluate the relevance of existing qualitative methodologies to the EiR study, and to develop a method best-suited to capturing influences on GDG decision-making. A research team comprised of three postdoctoral research fellows and a multidisciplinary steering group assessed the utility of extant qualitative methodologies for coding verbatim GDG meeting transcripts and semi-structured interviews with GDG members. A unique configuration of techniques was developed to permit data reduction and analysis. Our method incorporates techniques from thematic analysis, grounded theory analysis, content analysis, and framework analysis. Thematic analysis of individual interviews conducted with group members at the start and end of the GDG process defines discrete problem areas to guide data extraction from GDG meeting transcripts. Data excerpts are coded both inductively and deductively, using concepts taken from theories of decision-making, social influence and group processes. These codes inform a framework analysis to describe and explain incidents within GDG meetings. We illustrate the application of the method by discussing some preliminary findings of a study of a National Institute for Health and Clinical Excellence (NICE) acute physical health GDG. This method is currently being applied to study the meetings of three of NICE GDGs. These cover topics in acute physical health, mental health and public health, and comprise a total of 45 full-day meetings. The method offers potential for application to other health care and decision-making groups.
DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Nakafuji, Dora; Gouveia, Lauren

This project supports development of the next generation, integrated energy management infrastructure (EMS) able to incorporate advance visualization of behind-the-meter distributed resource information and probabilistic renewable energy generation forecasts to inform real-time operational decisions. The project involves end-users and active feedback from an Utility Advisory Team (UAT) to help inform how information can be used to enhance operational functions (e.g. unit commitment, load forecasting, Automatic Generation Control (AGC) reserve monitoring, ramp alerts) within two major EMS platforms. Objectives include: Engaging utility operations personnel to develop user input on displays, set expectations, test and review; Developing ease of use and timelinessmore » metrics for measuring enhancements; Developing prototype integrated capabilities within two operational EMS environments; Demonstrating an integrated decision analysis platform with real-time wind and solar forecasting information and timely distributed resource information; Seamlessly integrating new 4-dimensional information into operations without increasing workload and complexities; Developing sufficient analytics to inform and confidently transform and adopt new operating practices and procedures; Disseminating project lessons learned through industry sponsored workshops and conferences;Building on collaborative utility-vendor partnership and industry capabilities« less
Quantifying the costs and benefits of privacy-preserving health data publishing.

PubMed

Khokhar, Rashid Hussain; Chen, Rui; Fung, Benjamin C M; Lui, Siu Man

2014-08-01

Cost-benefit analysis is a prerequisite for making good business decisions. In the business environment, companies intend to make profit from maximizing information utility of published data while having an obligation to protect individual privacy. In this paper, we quantify the trade-off between privacy and data utility in health data publishing in terms of monetary value. We propose an analytical cost model that can help health information custodians (HICs) make better decisions about sharing person-specific health data with other parties. We examine relevant cost factors associated with the value of anonymized data and the possible damage cost due to potential privacy breaches. Our model guides an HIC to find the optimal value of publishing health data and could be utilized for both perturbative and non-perturbative anonymization techniques. We show that our approach can identify the optimal value for different privacy models, including K-anonymity, LKC-privacy, and ∊-differential privacy, under various anonymization algorithms and privacy parameters through extensive experiments on real-life data. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

A Decision Support System For The Real-Time Allocation Of The Water Resource Of The Tarim River Basin, China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wei, J.; Wang, G.; Liu, R.

2008-12-01

The Tarim River Basin is the longest inland river in China. Due to water scarcity, ecologically-fragile is becoming a significant constraint to sustainable development in this region. To effectively manage the limited water resources for ecological purposes and for conventional water utilization purposes, a real-time water resources allocation Decision Support System (DSS) has been developed. Based on workflows of the water resources regulations and comprehensive analysis of the efficiency and feasibility of water management strategies, the DSS includes information systems that perform data acquisition, management and visualization, and model systems that perform hydrological forecast, water demand prediction, flow routing simulation and water resources optimization of the hydrological and water utilization process. An optimization and process control strategy is employed to dynamically allocate the water resources among the different stakeholders. The competitive targets and constraints are taken into considered by multi-objective optimization and with different priorities. The DSS of the Tarim River Basin has been developed and been successfully utilized to support the water resources management of the Tarim River Basin since 2005.
A novel hybrid MCDM model for performance evaluation of research and technology organizations based on BSC approach.

PubMed

Varmazyar, Mohsen; Dehghanbaghi, Maryam; Afkhami, Mehdi

2016-10-01

Balanced Scorecard (BSC) is a strategic evaluation tool using both financial and non-financial indicators to determine the business performance of organizations or companies. In this paper, a new integrated approach based on the Balanced Scorecard (BSC) and multi-criteria decision making (MCDM) methods are proposed to evaluate the performance of research centers of research and technology organization (RTO) in Iran. Decision-Making Trial and Evaluation Laboratory (DEMATEL) are employed to reflect the interdependencies among BSC perspectives. Then, Analytic Network Process (ANP) is utilized to weight the indices influencing the considered problem. In the next step, we apply four MCDM methods including Additive Ratio Assessment (ARAS), Complex Proportional Assessment (COPRAS), Multi-Objective Optimization by Ratio Analysis (MOORA), and Technique for Order Preference by Similarity to Ideal Solution (TOPSIS) for ranking of alternatives. Finally, the utility interval technique is applied to combine the ranking results of MCDM methods. Weighted utility intervals are computed by constructing a correlation matrix between the ranking methods. A real case is presented to show the efficacy of the proposed approach. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
Possibilities of Utilizing the Method of Analytical Hierarchy Process Within the Strategy of Corporate Social Business

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Drieniková, Katarína; Hrdinová, Gabriela; Naňo, Tomáš; Sakál, Peter

2010-01-01

The paper deals with the analysis of the theory of corporate social responsibility, risk management and the exact method of analytic hierarchic process that is used in the decision-making processes. The Chapters 2 and 3 focus on presentation of the experience with the application of the method in formulating the stakeholders' strategic goals within the Corporate Social Responsibility (CSR) and simultaneously its utilization in minimizing the environmental risks. The major benefit of this paper is the application of Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP).
Nurse manager cognitive decision-making amidst stress and work complexity.

PubMed

Shirey, Maria R; Ebright, Patricia R; McDaniel, Anna M

2013-01-01

The present study provides insight into nurse manager cognitive decision-making amidst stress and work complexity. Little is known about nurse manager decision-making amidst stress and work complexity. Because nurse manager decisions have the potential to impact patient care quality and safety, understanding their decision-making processes is useful for designing supportive interventions. This qualitative descriptive study interviewed 21 nurse managers from three hospitals to answer the research question: What decision-making processes do nurse managers utilize to address stressful situations in their nurse manager role? Face-to-face interviews incorporating components of the Critical Decision Method illuminated expert-novice practice differences. Content analysis identified one major theme and three sub-themes. The present study produced a cognitive model that guides nurse manager decision-making related to stressful situations. Experience in the role, organizational context and situation factors influenced nurse manager cognitive decision-making processes. Study findings suggest that chronic exposure to stress and work complexity negatively affects nurse manager health and their decision-making processes potentially threatening individual, patient and organizational outcomes. Cognitive decision-making varies based on nurse manager experience and these differences have coaching and mentoring implications. This present study contributes a current understanding of nurse manager decision-making amidst stress and work complexity. © 2012 Blackwell Publishing Ltd.
Improving accountability in vaccine decision-making.

PubMed

Timmis, James Kenneth; Black, Steven; Rappuoli, Rino

2017-11-01

Healthcare decisions, in particular those affecting entire populations, should be evidence-based and taken by decision-makers sharing broad alignment with affected stakeholders. However, criteria, priorities and procedures for decision-making are sometimes non-transparent, frequently vary considerably across equivalent decision-bodies, do not always consider the broader benefits of new health-measures, and therefore do not necessarily adequately represent the relevant stakeholder-spectrum. Areas covered: To address these issues in the context of the evaluation of new vaccines, we have proposed a first baseline set of core evaluation criteria, primarily selected by members of the vaccine research community, and suggested their implementation in vaccine evaluation procedures. In this communication, we review the consequences and utility of stakeholder-centered core considerations to increase transparency in and accountability of decision-making procedures, in general, and of the benefits gained by their inclusion in Multi-Criteria-Decision-Analysis tools, exemplified by SMART Vaccines, specifically. Expert commentary: To increase effectiveness and comparability of health decision outcomes, decision procedures should be properly standardized across equivalent (national) decision bodies. To this end, including stakeholder-centered criteria in decision procedures would significantly increase their transparency and accountability, support international capacity building to improve health, and reduce societal costs and inequity resulting from suboptimal health decision-making.
Bayesian decision analysis as a tool for defining monitoring needs in the field of effects of CSOs on receiving waters.

PubMed

Korving, H; Clemens, F

2002-01-01

In recent years, decision analysis has become an important technique in many disciplines. It provides a methodology for rational decision-making allowing for uncertainties in the outcome of several possible actions to be undertaken. An example in urban drainage is the situation in which an engineer has to decide upon a major reconstruction of a system in order to prevent pollution of receiving waters due to CSOs. This paper describes the possibilities of Bayesian decision-making in urban drainage. In particular, the utility of monitoring prior to deciding on the reconstruction of a sewer system to reduce CSO emissions is studied. Our concern is with deciding whether a price should be paid for new information and which source of information is the best choice given the expected uncertainties in the outcome. The influence of specific uncertainties (sewer system data and model parameters) on the probability of CSO volumes is shown to be significant. Using Bayes' rule, to combine prior impressions with new observations, reduces the risks linked with the planning of sewer system reconstructions.
The management of an endodontically abscessed tooth: patient health state utility, decision-tree and economic analysis

PubMed Central

Balevi, Ben; Shepperd, Sasha

2007-01-01

Background A frequent encounter in clinical practice is the middle-aged adult patient complaining of a toothache caused by the spread of a carious infection into the tooth's endodontic complex. Decisions about the range of treatment options (conventional crown with a post and core technique (CC), a single tooth implant (STI), a conventional dental bridge (CDB), and a partial removable denture (RPD)) have to balance the prognosis, utility and cost. Little is know about the utility patients attach to the different treatment options for an endontically abscessed mandibular molar and maxillary incisor. We measured patients' dental-health-state utilities and ranking preferences of the treatment options for these dental problems. Methods Forty school teachers ranked their preferences for conventional crown with a post and core technique, a single tooth implant, a conventional dental bridge, and a partial removable denture using a standard gamble and willingness to pay. Data previously reported on treatment prognosis and direct "out-of-pocket" costs were used in a decision-tree and economic analysis Results The Standard Gamble utilities for the restoration of a mandibular 1st molar with either the conventional crown (CC), single-tooth-implant (STI), conventional dental bridge (CDB) or removable-partial-denture (RPD) were 74.47 [± 6.91], 78.60 [± 5.19], 76.22 [± 5.78], 64.80 [± 8.1] respectively (p < 0.05). Their respective Willingness-to-Pay ($CDN) were 1,782.05 [± 361.42], 1,871.79 [± 349.44], 1,605.13 [± 348.10], 1,351.28 [± 368.62] (p < 0.05). The standard gamble utilities for the restoration of a maxillary central incisor with a CC, STI, CDB and RPD were 88.50 [± 6.12], 90.68 [± 3.41], 89.78 [± 3.81] and 91.10 [± 3.57] respectively (p > 0.05). Their respective willingness-to-pay ($CDN) were: 1,782.05 [± 361.42], 1,871.79 [± 349.44], 1,605.13 [± 348.10] and 1,351.28 [± 368.62]. A statistical difference was found between the utility of treating a maxillary central incisor and mandibular 1st-molar (p < 0.05). The expected-utility-value for a 5-year prosthetic survival was highest for the CDB and the STI treatment of an abscessed mandibular molar (74.75 and 71.47 respectively) and maxillary incisor (86.24 and 84.91 respectively). This held up to a sensitivity analysis when the success of root canal therapy and the risk of damage to the adjacent tooth were varied. The RPD for both the molar and incisor was the favored treatment based on a cost-utility (3.85 and 2.74 CND$ per year of tooth saved respectively) and cost-benefit analysis (0.92 to 0.60 CND$ of cost per $ of benefit, respectively) for a prosthetic clinical survival of 5-years. Conclusion The position of the abscessed tooth and the amount of insurance coverage influences the utility and rank assigned by patients to the different treatment options. STI and CDB have optimal EUVs for a 5-year survival outcome, and RPD has significantly lower cost providing the better cost:benefit ratio. PMID:18053267
DARHT Multi-intelligence Seismic and Acoustic Data Analysis

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Stevens, Garrison Nicole; Van Buren, Kendra Lu; Hemez, Francois M.

The purpose of this report is to document the analysis of seismic and acoustic data collected at the Dual-Axis Radiographic Hydrodynamic Test (DARHT) facility at Los Alamos National Laboratory for robust, multi-intelligence decision making. The data utilized herein is obtained from two tri-axial seismic sensors and three acoustic sensors, resulting in a total of nine data channels. The goal of this analysis is to develop a generalized, automated framework to determine internal operations at DARHT using informative features extracted from measurements collected external of the facility. Our framework involves four components: (1) feature extraction, (2) data fusion, (3) classification, andmore » finally (4) robustness analysis. Two approaches are taken for extracting features from the data. The first of these, generic feature extraction, involves extraction of statistical features from the nine data channels. The second approach, event detection, identifies specific events relevant to traffic entering and leaving the facility as well as explosive activities at DARHT and nearby explosive testing sites. Event detection is completed using a two stage method, first utilizing signatures in the frequency domain to identify outliers and second extracting short duration events of interest among these outliers by evaluating residuals of an autoregressive exogenous time series model. Features extracted from each data set are then fused to perform analysis with a multi-intelligence paradigm, where information from multiple data sets are combined to generate more information than available through analysis of each independently. The fused feature set is used to train a statistical classifier and predict the state of operations to inform a decision maker. We demonstrate this classification using both generic statistical features and event detection and provide a comparison of the two methods. Finally, the concept of decision robustness is presented through a preliminary analysis where uncertainty is added to the system through noise in the measurements.« less
Lack of utility of a decision support system to mitigate delays in admission from the operating room to the postanesthesia care unit.

PubMed

Ehrenfeld, Jesse M; Dexter, Franklin; Rothman, Brian S; Minton, Betty Sue; Johnson, Diane; Sandberg, Warren S; Epstein, Richard H

2013-12-01

When the phase I postanesthesia care unit (PACU) is at capacity, completed cases need to be held in the operating room (OR), causing a "PACU delay." Statistical methods based on historical data can optimize PACU staffing to achieve the least possible labor cost at a given service level. A decision support process to alert PACU charge nurses that the PACU is at or near maximum census might be effective in lessening the incidence of delays and reducing over-utilized OR time, but only if alerts are timely (i.e., neither too late nor too early to act upon) and the PACU slot can be cleared quickly. We evaluated the maximum potential benefit of such a system, using assumptions deliberately biased toward showing utility. We extracted 3 years of electronic PACU data from a tertiary care medical center. At this hospital, PACU admissions were limited by neither inadequate PACU staffing nor insufficient PACU beds. We developed a model decision support system that simulated alerts to the PACU charge nurse. PACU census levels were reconstructed from the data at a 1-minute level of resolution and used to evaluate if subsequent delays would have been prevented by such alerts. The model assumed there was always a patient ready for discharge and an available hospital bed. The time from each alert until the maximum census was exceeded ("alert lead time") was determined. Alerts were judged to have utility if the alert lead time fell between various intervals from 15 or 30 minutes to 60, 75, or 90 minutes after triggering. In addition, utility for reducing over-utilized OR time was assessed using the model by determining if 2 patients arrived from 5 to 15 minutes of each other when the PACU census was at 1 patient less than the maximum census. At most, 23% of alerts arrived 30 to 60 minutes prior to the admission that resulted in the PACU exceeding the specified maximum capacity. When the notification window was extended to 15 to 90 minutes, the maximum utility was <50%. At most, 45% of alerts potentially would have resulted in reassigning the last available PACU slot to 1 OR versus another within 15 minutes of the original assignment. Despite multiple biases that favored effectiveness, the maximum potential benefit of a decision support system to mitigate PACU delays on the day on the surgery was below the 70% minimum threshold for utility of automated decision support messages, previously established via meta-analysis. Neither reduction in PACU delays nor reassigning promised PACU slots based on reducing over-utilized OR time were realized sufficiently to warrant further development of the system. Based on these results, the only evidence-based method of reducing PACU delays is to adjust PACU staffing and staff scheduling using computational algorithms to match the historical workload (e.g., as developed in 2001).
Decentralization and equity of resource allocation: evidence from Colombia and Chile.

PubMed Central

Bossert, Thomas J.; Larrañaga, Osvaldo; Giedion, Ursula; Arbelaez, José Jesus; Bowser, Diana M.

2003-01-01

OBJECTIVE: To investigate the relation between decentralization and equity of resource allocation in Colombia and Chile. METHODS: The "decision space" approach and analysis of expenditures and utilization rates were used to provide a comparative analysis of decentralization of the health systems of Colombia and Chile. FINDINGS: Evidence from Colombia and Chile suggests that decentralization, under certain conditions and with some specific policy mechanisms, can improve equity of resource allocation. In these countries, equitable levels of per capita financial allocations at the municipal level were achieved through different forms of decentralization--the use of allocation formulae, adequate local funding choices and horizontal equity funds. Findings on equity of utilization of services were less consistent, but they did show that increased levels of funding were associated with increased utilization. This suggests that improved equity of funding over time might reduce inequities of service utilization. CONCLUSION: Decentralization can contribute to, or at least maintain, equitable allocation of health resources among municipalities of different incomes. PMID:12751417
Is Regret Theory an alternative basis for estimating the value of healthcare interventions?

PubMed

Smith, R D

1996-08-01

This paper presents an argument for the existence of "regret' influencing the valuation of alternative outcomes when making treatment decisions in healthcare. It is argued that valuation techniques as currently formulated rely upon the axioms of Expected Utility Theory (transitivity and independence). This potentially leads to a misrepresentation of the respondents true preferences over treatment alternatives, and thus results in the potential for "irrational' decisions being observed. A modified version of Regret Theory is outlined, and the results of a tentative empirical analysis provided to illustrate the importance of accounting for regret in the valuation of health states. It is concluded that regret is an important element in individual valuation and decision making in health care.
Women's Values and Preferences for Thromboprophylaxis during Pregnancy: A Comparison of Direct-choice and Decision Analysis using Patient Specific Utilities

PubMed Central

Eckman, Mark H.; Alonso-Coello, Pablo; Guyatt, Gordon H.; Ebrahim, Shanil; Tikkinen, Kari A.O.; Lopes, Luciane Cruz; Neumann, Ignacio; McDonald, Sarah D.; Zhang, Yuqing; Zhou, Qi; Akl, Elie A.; Jacobsen, Ann Flem; Santamaría, Amparo; Annichino-Bizzacchi, Joyce Maria; Bitar, Wael; Sandset, Per Morten; Bates, Shannon M.

2016-01-01

Background Women with a history of venous thromboembolism (VTE) have an increased recurrence risk during pregnancy. Low molecular weight heparin (LMWH) reduces this risk, but is costly, burdensome, and may increase risk of bleeding. The decision to start thromboprophylaxis during pregnancy is sensitive to women's values and preferences. Our objective was to compare women's choices using a holistic approach in which they were presented all of the relevant information (direct-choice) versus a personalized decision analysis in which a mathematical model incorporated their preferences and VTE risk to make a treatment recommendation. Methods Multicenter, international study. Structured interviews were on women with a history of VTE who were pregnant, planning, or considering pregnancy. Women indicated their willingness to receive thromboprophylaxis based on scenarios using personalized estimates of VTE recurrence and bleeding risks. We also obtained women's values for health outcomes using a visual analog scale. We performed individualized decision analyses for each participant and compared model recommendations to decisions made when presented with the direct-choice exercise. Results Of the 123 women in the study, the decision model recommended LMWH for 51 women and recommended against LMWH for 72 women. 12% (6/51) of women for whom the decision model recommended thromboprophylaxis chose not to take LMWH; 72% (52/72) of women for whom the decision model recommended against thromboprophylaxis chose LMWH. Conclusions We observed a high degree of discordance between decisions in the direct-choice exercise and decision model recommendations. Although which approach best captures individuals’ true values remains uncertain, personalized decision support tools presenting results based on personalized risks and values may improve decision making. PMID:26033397
Women's values and preferences for thromboprophylaxis during pregnancy: a comparison of direct-choice and decision analysis using patient specific utilities.

PubMed

Eckman, Mark H; Alonso-Coello, Pablo; Guyatt, Gordon H; Ebrahim, Shanil; Tikkinen, Kari A O; Lopes, Luciane Cruz; Neumann, Ignacio; McDonald, Sarah D; Zhang, Yuqing; Zhou, Qi; Akl, Elie A; Jacobsen, Ann Flem; Santamaría, Amparo; Annichino-Bizzacchi, Joyce Maria; Bitar, Wael; Sandset, Per Morten; Bates, Shannon M

2015-08-01

Women with a history of venous thromboembolism (VTE) have an increased recurrence risk during pregnancy. Low molecular weight heparin (LMWH) reduces this risk, but is costly, burdensome, and may increase risk of bleeding. The decision to start thromboprophylaxis during pregnancy is sensitive to women's values and preferences. Our objective was to compare women's choices using a holistic approach in which they were presented all of the relevant information (direct-choice) versus a personalized decision analysis in which a mathematical model incorporated their preferences and VTE risk to make a treatment recommendation. Multicenter, international study. Structured interviews were on women with a history of VTE who were pregnant, planning, or considering pregnancy. Women indicated their willingness to receive thromboprophylaxis based on scenarios using personalized estimates of VTE recurrence and bleeding risks. We also obtained women's values for health outcomes using a visual analog scale. We performed individualized decision analyses for each participant and compared model recommendations to decisions made when presented with the direct-choice exercise. Of the 123 women in the study, the decision model recommended LMWH for 51 women and recommended against LMWH for 72 women. 12% (6/51) of women for whom the decision model recommended thromboprophylaxis chose not to take LMWH; 72% (52/72) of women for whom the decision model recommended against thromboprophylaxis chose LMWH. We observed a high degree of discordance between decisions in the direct-choice exercise and decision model recommendations. Although which approach best captures individuals' true values remains uncertain, personalized decision support tools presenting results based on personalized risks and values may improve decision making. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
25 CFR 1000.69 - How can a Tribe/Consortium obtain comments or selection documents received or utilized after OSG...

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-04-01

...-DETERMINATION AND EDUCATION ACT Other Financial Assistance for Planning and Negotiation Grants for Non-BIA... documents received or utilized after OSG has made a decision on a planning grant application? 1000.69... selection documents received or utilized after OSG has made a decision on a planning grant application? A...
Prospect relativity: how choice options influence decision under risk.

PubMed

Stewart, Neil; Chater, Nick; Stott, Henry P; Reimers, Stian

2003-03-01

In many theories of decision under risk (e.g., expected utility theory, rank-dependent utility theory, and prospect theory), the utility of a prospect is independent of other options in the choice set. The experiments presented here show a large effect of the available options, suggesting instead that prospects are valued relative to one another. The judged certainty equivalent for a prospect is strongly influenced by the options available. Similarly, the selection of a preferred prospect is strongly influenced by the prospects available. Alternative theories of decision under risk (e.g., the stochastic difference model, multialternative decision field theory, and range frequency theory), where prospects are valued relative to one another, can provide an account of these context effects.
Clarity versus complexity: land-use modeling as a practical tool for decision-makers

USGS Publications Warehouse

Sohl, Terry L.; Claggett, Peter

2013-01-01

The last decade has seen a remarkable increase in the number of modeling tools available to examine future land-use and land-cover (LULC) change. Integrated modeling frameworks, agent-based models, cellular automata approaches, and other modeling techniques have substantially improved the representation of complex LULC systems, with each method using a different strategy to address complexity. However, despite the development of new and better modeling tools, the use of these tools is limited for actual planning, decision-making, or policy-making purposes. LULC modelers have become very adept at creating tools for modeling LULC change, but complicated models and lack of transparency limit their utility for decision-makers. The complicated nature of many LULC models also makes it impractical or even impossible to perform a rigorous analysis of modeling uncertainty. This paper provides a review of land-cover modeling approaches and the issues causes by the complicated nature of models, and provides suggestions to facilitate the increased use of LULC models by decision-makers and other stakeholders. The utility of LULC models themselves can be improved by 1) providing model code and documentation, 2) through the use of scenario frameworks to frame overall uncertainties, 3) improving methods for generalizing key LULC processes most important to stakeholders, and 4) adopting more rigorous standards for validating models and quantifying uncertainty. Communication with decision-makers and other stakeholders can be improved by increasing stakeholder participation in all stages of the modeling process, increasing the transparency of model structure and uncertainties, and developing user-friendly decision-support systems to bridge the link between LULC science and policy. By considering these options, LULC science will be better positioned to support decision-makers and increase real-world application of LULC modeling results.
Can Carbon Nanomaterials Improve CZTS Photovoltaic Devices? Evaluation of Performance and Impacts Using Integrated Life-Cycle Assessment and Decision Analysis.

PubMed

Scott, Ryan P; Cullen, Alison C; Fox-Lent, Cate; Linkov, Igor

2016-10-01

In emergent photovoltaics, nanoscale materials hold promise for optimizing device characteristics; however, the related impacts remain uncertain, resulting in challenges to decisions on strategic investment in technology innovation. We integrate multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA) and life-cycle assessment (LCA) results (LCA-MCDA) as a method of incorporating values of a hypothetical federal acquisition manager into the assessment of risks and benefits of emerging photovoltaic materials. Specifically, we compare adoption of copper zinc tin sulfide (CZTS) devices with molybdenum back contacts to alternative devices employing graphite or graphene instead of molybdenum. LCA impact results are interpreted alongside benefits of substitution including cost reductions and performance improvements through application of multi-attribute utility theory. To assess the role of uncertainty we apply Monte Carlo simulation and sensitivity analysis. We find that graphene or graphite back contacts outperform molybdenum under most scenarios and assumptions. The use of decision analysis clarifies potential advantages of adopting graphite as a back contact while emphasizing the importance of mitigating conventional impacts of graphene production processes if graphene is used in emerging CZTS devices. Our research further demonstrates that a combination of LCA and MCDA increases the usability of LCA in assessing product sustainability. In particular, this approach identifies the most influential assumptions and data gaps in the analysis and the areas in which either engineering controls or further data collection may be necessary. © 2016 Society for Risk Analysis.
The causal structure of utility conditionals.

PubMed

Bonnefon, Jean-François; Sloman, Steven A

2013-01-01

The psychology of reasoning is increasingly considering agents' values and preferences, achieving greater integration with judgment and decision making, social cognition, and moral reasoning. Some of this research investigates utility conditionals, ''if p then q'' statements where the realization of p or q or both is valued by some agents. Various approaches to utility conditionals share the assumption that reasoners make inferences from utility conditionals based on the comparison between the utility of p and the expected utility of q. This article introduces a new parameter in this analysis, the underlying causal structure of the conditional. Four experiments showed that causal structure moderated utility-informed conditional reasoning. These inferences were strongly invited when the underlying structure of the conditional was causal, and significantly less so when the underlying structure of the conditional was diagnostic. This asymmetry was only observed for conditionals in which the utility of q was clear, and disappeared when the utility of q was unclear. Thus, an adequate account of utility-informed inferences conditional reasoning requires three components: utility, probability, and causal structure. Copyright © 2012 Cognitive Science Society, Inc.
Evaluating gambles using dynamics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Peters, O.; Gell-Mann, M.

2016-02-01

Gambles are random variables that model possible changes in wealth. Classic decision theory transforms money into utility through a utility function and defines the value of a gamble as the expectation value of utility changes. Utility functions aim to capture individual psychological characteristics, but their generality limits predictive power. Expectation value maximizers are defined as rational in economics, but expectation values are only meaningful in the presence of ensembles or in systems with ergodic properties, whereas decision-makers have no access to ensembles, and the variables representing wealth in the usual growth models do not have the relevant ergodic properties. Simultaneously addressing the shortcomings of utility and those of expectations, we propose to evaluate gambles by averaging wealth growth over time. No utility function is needed, but a dynamic must be specified to compute time averages. Linear and logarithmic "utility functions" appear as transformations that generate ergodic observables for purely additive and purely multiplicative dynamics, respectively. We highlight inconsistencies throughout the development of decision theory, whose correction clarifies that our perspective is legitimate. These invalidate a commonly cited argument for bounded utility functions.
Decision theory for computing variable and value ordering decisions for scheduling problems

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Linden, Theodore A.

1993-01-01

Heuristics that guide search are critical when solving large planning and scheduling problems, but most variable and value ordering heuristics are sensitive to only one feature of the search state. One wants to combine evidence from all features of the search state into a subjective probability that a value choice is best, but there has been no solid semantics for merging evidence when it is conceived in these terms. Instead, variable and value ordering decisions should be viewed as problems in decision theory. This led to two key insights: (1) The fundamental concept that allows heuristic evidence to be merged is the net incremental utility that will be achieved by assigning a value to a variable. Probability distributions about net incremental utility can merge evidence from the utility function, binary constraints, resource constraints, and other problem features. The subjective probability that a value is the best choice is then derived from probability distributions about net incremental utility. (2) The methods used for rumor control in Bayesian Networks are the primary way to prevent cycling in the computation of probable net incremental utility. These insights lead to semantically justifiable ways to compute heuristic variable and value ordering decisions that merge evidence from all available features of the search state.

Hesitant Fuzzy Linguistic Preference Utility Set and Its Application in Selection of Fire Rescue Plans

PubMed Central

Si, Guangsen; Xu, Zeshui

2018-01-01

Hesitant fuzzy linguistic term set provides an effective tool to represent uncertain decision information. However, the semantics corresponding to the linguistic terms in it cannot accurately reflect the decision-makers’ subjective cognition. In general, different decision-makers’ sensitivities towards the semantics are different. Such sensitivities can be represented by the cumulative prospect theory value function. Inspired by this, we propose a linguistic scale function to transform the semantics corresponding to linguistic terms into the linguistic preference values. Furthermore, we propose the hesitant fuzzy linguistic preference utility set, based on which, the decision-makers can flexibly express their distinct semantics and obtain the decision results that are consistent with their cognition. For calculations and comparisons over the hesitant fuzzy linguistic preference utility sets, we introduce some distance measures and comparison laws. Afterwards, to apply the hesitant fuzzy linguistic preference utility sets in emergency management, we develop a method to obtain objective weights of attributes and then propose a hesitant fuzzy linguistic preference utility-TOPSIS method to select the best fire rescue plan. Finally, the validity of the proposed method is verified by some comparisons of the method with other two representative methods including the hesitant fuzzy linguistic-TOPSIS method and the hesitant fuzzy linguistic-VIKOR method. PMID:29614019
Hesitant Fuzzy Linguistic Preference Utility Set and Its Application in Selection of Fire Rescue Plans.

PubMed

Liao, Huchang; Si, Guangsen; Xu, Zeshui; Fujita, Hamido

2018-04-03

Hesitant fuzzy linguistic term set provides an effective tool to represent uncertain decision information. However, the semantics corresponding to the linguistic terms in it cannot accurately reflect the decision-makers' subjective cognition. In general, different decision-makers' sensitivities towards the semantics are different. Such sensitivities can be represented by the cumulative prospect theory value function. Inspired by this, we propose a linguistic scale function to transform the semantics corresponding to linguistic terms into the linguistic preference values. Furthermore, we propose the hesitant fuzzy linguistic preference utility set, based on which, the decision-makers can flexibly express their distinct semantics and obtain the decision results that are consistent with their cognition. For calculations and comparisons over the hesitant fuzzy linguistic preference utility sets, we introduce some distance measures and comparison laws. Afterwards, to apply the hesitant fuzzy linguistic preference utility sets in emergency management, we develop a method to obtain objective weights of attributes and then propose a hesitant fuzzy linguistic preference utility-TOPSIS method to select the best fire rescue plan. Finally, the validity of the proposed method is verified by some comparisons of the method with other two representative methods including the hesitant fuzzy linguistic-TOPSIS method and the hesitant fuzzy linguistic-VIKOR method.
An Assessment Model for Energy Efficiency Program Planning in Electric Utilities: Case of the Pacific of Northwest U.S.A

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Iskin, Ibrahim

Energy efficiency stands out with its potential to address a number of challenges that today's electric utilities face, including increasing and changing electricity demand, shrinking operating capacity, and decreasing system reliability and flexibility. Being the least cost and least risky alternative, the share of energy efficiency programs in utilities' energy portfolios has been on the rise since the 1980s, and their increasing importance is expected to continue in the future. Despite holding great promise, the ability to determine and invest in only the most promising program alternatives plays a key role in the successful use of energy efficiency as a utility-wide resource. This issue becomes even more significant considering the availability of a vast number of potential energy efficiency programs, the rapidly changing business environment, and the existence of multiple stakeholders. This dissertation introduces hierarchical decision modeling as the framework for energy efficiency program planning in electric utilities. The model focuses on the assessment of emerging energy efficiency programs and proposes to bridge the gap between technology screening and cost/benefit evaluation practices. This approach is expected to identify emerging technology alternatives which have the highest potential to pass cost/benefit ratio testing procedures and contribute to the effectiveness of decision practices in energy efficiency program planning. The model also incorporates rank order analysis and sensitivity analysis for testing the robustness of results from different stakeholder perspectives and future uncertainties in an attempt to enable more informed decision-making practices. The model was applied to the case of 13 high priority emerging energy efficiency program alternatives identified in the Pacific Northwest, U.S.A. The results of this study reveal that energy savings potential is the most important program management consideration in selecting emerging energy efficiency programs. Market dissemination potential and program development and implementation potential are the second and third most important, whereas ancillary benefits potential is the least important program management consideration. The results imply that program value considerations, comprised of energy savings potential and ancillary benefits potential; and program feasibility considerations, comprised of program development and implementation potential and market dissemination potential, have almost equal impacts on assessment of emerging energy efficiency programs. Considering the overwhelming number of value-focused studies and the few feasibility-focused studies in the literature, this finding clearly shows that feasibility-focused studies are greatly understudied. The hierarchical decision model developed in this dissertation is generalizable. Thus, other utilities or power systems can adopt the research steps employed in this study as guidelines and conduct similar assessment studies on emerging energy efficiency programs of their interest.
The conscious mind and its emergent properties; an analysis based on decision theory.

PubMed

Morris, James A

2011-08-01

The process of conscious and unconscious decision making is analyzed using decision theory. An essential part of an optimum decision strategy is the assessment of values and costs associated with correct and incorrect decisions. In the case of unconscious decisions this involves an automatic process akin to computation using numerical values. But for conscious decisions the conscious mind must experience the outcome of the decision as pleasure or pain. It is suggested that the rules of behavior are programmed in our genes but modified by experience of the society in which we are reared. Our unconscious then uses the rules to reward or punish our conscious mind for the decisions it makes. This is relevant to concepts of altruism and religion in society. It is consistent with the observation that we prefer beauty to utility. The decision theory equations also explain the paradox that a single index of happiness can be applied in society. The symptoms of mental illness can be due to appropriate or inappropriate action by the unconscious. The former indicates a psychological conflict between conscious and unconscious decision making. Inappropriate action indicates that a pathological process has switched on genetic networks that should be switched off. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
American Recovery and Reinvestment Act of 2009. Interim Report on Customer Acceptance, Retention, and Response to Time-Based Rates from the Consumer Behavior Studies

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Cappers, Peter; Hans, Liesel; Scheer, Richard

Time-based rate programs1, enabled by utility investments in advanced metering infrastructure (AMI), are increasingly being considered by utilities as tools to reduce peak demand and enable customers to better manage consumption and costs. There are several customer systems that are relatively new to the marketplace and have the potential for improving the effectiveness of these programs, including in-home displays (IHDs), programmable communicating thermostats (PCTs), and web portals. Policy and decision makers are interested in more information about customer acceptance, retention, and response before moving forward with expanded deployments of AMI-enabled new rates and technologies. Under the Smart Grid Investment Grantmore » Program (SGIG), the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) partnered with several utilities to conduct consumer behavior studies (CBS). The goals involved applying randomized and controlled experimental designs for estimating customer responses more precisely and credibly to advance understanding of time-based rates and customer systems, and provide new information for improving program designs, implementation strategies, and evaluations. The intent was to produce more robust and credible analysis of impacts, costs, benefits, and lessons learned and assist utility and regulatory decision makers in evaluating investment opportunities involving time-based rates. To help achieve these goals, DOE developed technical guidelines to help the CBS utilities estimate customer acceptance, retention, and response more precisely.« less
Utility function under decision theory: A construction arbitration application

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Alozn, Ahmad E.; Galadari, Abdulla

2017-08-01

While a wide range of dispute resolution mechanisms exist, practitioners favor legally binding ones such as litigation and arbitration. Since initiating a litigation or arbitration case against a business partner may dissolve the business relationship between them, predicting the arbitrator's decision becomes valuable to the arbitrating parties. This paper proposes a construction-specific utility framework for the arbitrating party through decision theory, and based on expected utility theory. The proposed framework preserves the industry practicality and most importantly, considers direct short-term factors and indirect long-term factors as well. It is suggested that the arbitrating parties' utility functions could be then used to identify equilibrium points among them when interact via game theory principles, which would serve the purpose of predicting the arbitration outcome.
Examining the Use of a Structured Analysis Framework to Support Prospective Teacher Noticing

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Mitchell, Rebecca N.; Marin, Katherine Ariemma

2015-01-01

The ability to notice important events in a teaching situation and make decisions about these events is a key component of teaching well. Prospective teachers tend to notice more superficial aspects of classroom practice, such as class management. This article examines a video club in which four student teachers utilized the Mathematical Quality…
Case Study Application Of Determining End Of Asset Physical Life Using Survival Analysis:(WERF Report INFR2R11a)

EPA Science Inventory

Abstract:This case study application provides discussion on a selected application of advanced concepts, included in the End of Asset Life Reinvestment decision-making process tool, using a utility practitioner’s data set. The tool provides step-by-step process guidance to the as...
An economic analysis of harvest behavior: integrating forest and ownership characteristics

Treesearch

Donald F. Dennis

1989-01-01

This study provides insight into the determinants of timber supply from private forests through development of both theoretical and empirical models of harvest behavior. A microeconomic model encompasses the multiple objective nature of private ownership by examining the harvest decision for landowners who derive utility from forest amenities and from income used for...
Cost-benefit analysis: the first real rule of fight club?

PubMed Central

Hillman, Kristin L.

2013-01-01

Competition is ubiquitous among social animals. Vying against a conspecific to achieve a particular outcome often requires one to act aggressively, but this is a costly and inherently risky behavior. So why do we aggressively compete, or at the extreme, fight against others? Early work suggested that competitive aggression might stem from an innate aggressive tendency, emanating from subcortical structures. Later work highlighted key cortical regions that contribute toward an instrumental aggression network, one that is recruited or suppressed as needed to achieve a goal. Recent neuroimaging work hints that competitive aggression is upmost a cost-benefit decision, in that it appears to recruit many components of traditional, non-social decision-making networks. This review provides a historical glimpse into the neuroscience of competitive aggression, and proposes a conceptual advancement for studying competitive behavior by outlining how utility calculations of contested-for resources are skewed, pre- and post-competition. A basic multi-factorial model of utility assessment is proposed to account for competitive endowment effects that stem from the presence of peers, peer salience and disposition, and the tactical effort required for victory. In part, competitive aggression is a learned behavior that should only be repeated if positive outcomes are achieved. However, due to skewed utility assessments, deviations of associative learning occur. Hence truly careful cost-benefit analysis is warranted before choosing to vie against another. PMID:24391531
Cost-benefit analysis: the first real rule of fight club?

PubMed

Hillman, Kristin L

2013-12-19

Competition is ubiquitous among social animals. Vying against a conspecific to achieve a particular outcome often requires one to act aggressively, but this is a costly and inherently risky behavior. So why do we aggressively compete, or at the extreme, fight against others? Early work suggested that competitive aggression might stem from an innate aggressive tendency, emanating from subcortical structures. Later work highlighted key cortical regions that contribute toward an instrumental aggression network, one that is recruited or suppressed as needed to achieve a goal. Recent neuroimaging work hints that competitive aggression is upmost a cost-benefit decision, in that it appears to recruit many components of traditional, non-social decision-making networks. This review provides a historical glimpse into the neuroscience of competitive aggression, and proposes a conceptual advancement for studying competitive behavior by outlining how utility calculations of contested-for resources are skewed, pre- and post-competition. A basic multi-factorial model of utility assessment is proposed to account for competitive endowment effects that stem from the presence of peers, peer salience and disposition, and the tactical effort required for victory. In part, competitive aggression is a learned behavior that should only be repeated if positive outcomes are achieved. However, due to skewed utility assessments, deviations of associative learning occur. Hence truly careful cost-benefit analysis is warranted before choosing to vie against another.
The Application of Climate Risk Informed Decision Analysis to the Ioland Water Treatment Plant in Lusaka, Zambia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kucharski, John; Tkach, Mark; Olszewski, Jennifer; Chaudhry, Rabia; Mendoza, Guillermo

2016-04-01

This presentation demonstrates the application of Climate Risk Informed Decision Analysis (CRIDA) at Zambia's principal water treatment facility, The Iolanda Water Treatment Plant. The water treatment plant is prone to unacceptable failures during periods of low hydropower production at the Kafue Gorge Dam Hydroelectric Power Plant. The case study explores approaches of increasing the water treatment plant's ability to deliver acceptable levels of service under the range of current and potential future climate states. The objective of the study is to investigate alternative investments to build system resilience that might have been informed by the CRIDA process, and to evaluate the extra resource requirements by a bilateral donor agency to implement the CRIDA process. The case study begins with an assessment of the water treatment plant's vulnerability to climate change. It does so by following general principals described in "Confronting Climate Uncertainty in Water Resource Planning and Project Design: the Decision Tree Framework". By utilizing relatively simple bootstrapping methods a range of possible future climate states is generated while avoiding the use of more complex and costly downscaling methodologies; that are beyond the budget and technical capacity of many teams. The resulting climate vulnerabilities and uncertainty in the climate states that produce them are analyzed as part of a "Level of Concern" analysis. CRIDA principals are then applied to this Level of Concern analysis in order to arrive at a set of actionable water management decisions. The principal goals of water resource management is to transform variable, uncertain hydrology into dependable services (e.g. water supply, flood risk reduction, ecosystem benefits, hydropower production, etc…). Traditional approaches to climate adaptation require the generation of predicted future climate states but do little guide decision makers how this information should impact decision making. In this context it is not surprising that the increased hydrologic variability and uncertainty produced by many climate risk analyses bedevil water resource decision making. The Climate Risk Informed Decision Analysis (CRIDA) approach builds on work found in "Confronting Climate Uncertainty in Water Resource Planning and Project Design: the Decision Tree Framework" which provide guidance of vulnerability assessments. It guides practitioners through a "Level of Concern" analysis where climate vulnerabilities are analyzed to produce actionable alternatives and decisions.
DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Shahidehpour, Mohammad

Integrating 20% or more wind energy into the system and transmitting large sums of wind energy over long distances will require a decision making capability that can handle very large scale power systems with tens of thousands of buses and lines. There is a need to explore innovative analytical and implementation solutions for continuing reliable operations with the most economical integration of additional wind energy in power systems. A number of wind integration solution paths involve the adoption of new operating policies, dynamic scheduling of wind power across interties, pooling integration services, and adopting new transmission scheduling practices. Such practicesmore » can be examined by the decision tool developed by this project. This project developed a very efficient decision tool called Wind INtegration Simulator (WINS) and applied WINS to facilitate wind energy integration studies. WINS focused on augmenting the existing power utility capabilities to support collaborative planning, analysis, and wind integration project implementations. WINS also had the capability of simulating energy storage facilities so that feasibility studies of integrated wind energy system applications can be performed for systems with high wind energy penetrations. The development of WINS represents a major expansion of a very efficient decision tool called POwer Market Simulator (POMS), which was developed by IIT and has been used extensively for power system studies for decades. Specifically, WINS provides the following superiorities; (1) An integrated framework is included in WINS for the comprehensive modeling of DC transmission configurations, including mono-pole, bi-pole, tri-pole, back-to-back, and multi-terminal connection, as well as AC/DC converter models including current source converters (CSC) and voltage source converters (VSC); (2) An existing shortcoming of traditional decision tools for wind integration is the limited availability of user interface, i.e., decision results are often text-based demonstrations. WINS includes a powerful visualization tool and user interface capability for transmission analyses, planning, and assessment, which will be of great interest to power market participants, power system planners and operators, and state and federal regulatory entities; and (3) WINS can handle extended transmission models for wind integration studies. WINS models include limitations on transmission flow as well as bus voltage for analyzing power system states. The existing decision tools often consider transmission flow constraints (dc power flow) alone which could result in the over-utilization of existing resources when analyzing wind integration. WINS can be used to assist power market participants including transmission companies, independent system operators, power system operators in vertically integrated utilities, wind energy developers, and regulatory agencies to analyze economics, security, and reliability of various options for wind integration including transmission upgrades and the planning of new transmission facilities. WINS can also be used by industry for the offline training of reliability and operation personnel when analyzing wind integration uncertainties, identifying critical spots in power system operation, analyzing power system vulnerabilities, and providing credible decisions for examining operation and planning options for wind integration. Researches in this project on wind integration included (1) Development of WINS; (2) Transmission Congestion Analysis in the Eastern Interconnection; (3) Analysis of 2030 Large-Scale Wind Energy Integration in the Eastern Interconnection; (4) Large-scale Analysis of 2018 Wind Energy Integration in the Eastern U.S. Interconnection. The research resulted in 33 papers, 9 presentations, 9 PhD degrees, 4 MS degrees, and 7 awards. The education activities in this project on wind energy included (1) Wind Energy Training Facility Development; (2) Wind Energy Course Development.« less
Utility-Based Instruments for People with Dementia: A Systematic Review and Meta-Regression Analysis.

PubMed

Li, Li; Nguyen, Kim-Huong; Comans, Tracy; Scuffham, Paul

2018-04-01

Several utility-based instruments have been applied in cost-utility analysis to assess health state values for people with dementia. Nevertheless, concerns and uncertainty regarding their performance for people with dementia have been raised. To assess the performance of available utility-based instruments for people with dementia by comparing their psychometric properties and to explore factors that cause variations in the reported health state values generated from those instruments by conducting meta-regression analyses. A literature search was conducted and psychometric properties were synthesized to demonstrate the overall performance of each instrument. When available, health state values and variables such as the type of instrument and cognitive impairment levels were extracted from each article. A meta-regression analysis was undertaken and available covariates were included in the models. A total of 64 studies providing preference-based values were identified and included. The EuroQol five-dimension questionnaire demonstrated the best combination of feasibility, reliability, and validity. Meta-regression analyses suggested that significant differences exist between instruments, type of respondents, and mode of administration and the variations in estimated utility values had influences on incremental quality-adjusted life-year calculation. This review finds that the EuroQol five-dimension questionnaire is the most valid utility-based instrument for people with dementia, but should be replaced by others under certain circumstances. Although no utility estimates were reported in the article, the meta-regression analyses that examined variations in utility estimates produced by different instruments impact on cost-utility analysis, potentially altering the decision-making process in some circumstances. Copyright © 2018 International Society for Pharmacoeconomics and Outcomes Research (ISPOR). Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.
Stakeholder analysis: a review.

PubMed

Brugha, R; Varvasovszky, Z

2000-09-01

The growing popularity of stakeholder analysis reflects an increasing recognition of how the characteristics of stakeholders--individuals, groups and organizations--influence decision-making processes. This paper reviews the origins and uses of stakeholder analysis, as described in the policy, health care management and development literature. Its roots are in the political and policy sciences, and in management theory where it has evolved into a systematic tool with clearly defined steps and applications for scanning the current and future organizational environment. Stakeholder analysis can be used to generate knowledge about the relevant actors so as to understand their behaviour, intentions, interrelations, agendas, interests, and the influence or resources they have brought--or could bring--to bear on decision-making processes. This information can then be used to develop strategies for managing these stakeholders, to facilitate the implementation of specific decisions or organizational objectives, or to understand the policy context and assess the feasibility of future policy directions. Policy development is a complex process which frequently takes place in an unstable and rapidly changing context, subject to unpredictable internal and external factors. As a cross-sectional view of an evolving picture, the utility of stakeholder analysis for predicting and managing the future is time-limited and it should be complemented by other policy analysis approaches.
Acceptable regret in medical decision making.

PubMed

Djulbegovic, B; Hozo, I; Schwartz, A; McMasters, K M

1999-09-01

When faced with medical decisions involving uncertain outcomes, the principles of decision theory hold that we should select the option with the highest expected utility to maximize health over time. Whether a decision proves right or wrong can be learned only in retrospect, when it may become apparent that another course of action would have been preferable. This realization may bring a sense of loss, or regret. When anticipated regret is compelling, a decision maker may choose to violate expected utility theory to avoid regret. We formulate a concept of acceptable regret in medical decision making that explicitly introduces the patient's attitude toward loss of health due to a mistaken decision into decision making. In most cases, minimizing expected regret results in the same decision as maximizing expected utility. However, when acceptable regret is taken into consideration, the threshold probability below which we can comfortably withhold treatment is a function only of the net benefit of the treatment, and the threshold probability above which we can comfortably administer the treatment depends only on the magnitude of the risks associated with the therapy. By considering acceptable regret, we develop new conceptual relations that can help decide whether treatment should be withheld or administered, especially when the diagnosis is uncertain. This may be particularly beneficial in deciding what constitutes futile medical care.
TREATMENT SWITCHING: STATISTICAL AND DECISION-MAKING CHALLENGES AND APPROACHES.

PubMed

Latimer, Nicholas R; Henshall, Chris; Siebert, Uwe; Bell, Helen

2016-01-01

Treatment switching refers to the situation in a randomized controlled trial where patients switch from their randomly assigned treatment onto an alternative. Often, switching is from the control group onto the experimental treatment. In this instance, a standard intention-to-treat analysis does not identify the true comparative effectiveness of the treatments under investigation. We aim to describe statistical methods for adjusting for treatment switching in a comprehensible way for nonstatisticians, and to summarize views on these methods expressed by stakeholders at the 2014 Adelaide International Workshop on Treatment Switching in Clinical Trials. We describe three statistical methods used to adjust for treatment switching: marginal structural models, two-stage adjustment, and rank preserving structural failure time models. We draw upon discussion heard at the Adelaide International Workshop to explore the views of stakeholders on the acceptability of these methods. Stakeholders noted that adjustment methods are based on assumptions, the validity of which may often be questionable. There was disagreement on the acceptability of adjustment methods, but consensus that when these are used, they should be justified rigorously. The utility of adjustment methods depends upon the decision being made and the processes used by the decision-maker. Treatment switching makes estimating the true comparative effect of a new treatment challenging. However, many decision-makers have reservations with adjustment methods. These, and how they affect the utility of adjustment methods, require further exploration. Further technical work is required to develop adjustment methods to meet real world needs, to enhance their acceptability to decision-makers.
42 CFR 456.237 - Notification of adverse decision.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-10-01

... 42 Public Health 4 2010-10-01 2010-10-01 false Notification of adverse decision. 456.237 Section 456.237 Public Health CENTERS FOR MEDICARE & MEDICAID SERVICES, DEPARTMENT OF HEALTH AND HUMAN SERVICES (CONTINUED) MEDICAL ASSISTANCE PROGRAMS UTILIZATION CONTROL Utilization Control: Mental Hospitals...
Usability and utility evaluation of the web-based "Should I Start Insulin?" patient decision aid for patients with type 2 diabetes among older people.

PubMed

Lee, Yew Kong; Lee, Ping Yein; Ng, Chirk Jenn; Teo, Chin Hai; Abu Bakar, Ahmad Ihsan; Abdullah, Khatijah Lim; Khoo, Ee Ming; Hanafi, Nik Sherina; Low, Wah Yun; Chiew, Thiam Kian

2018-01-01

This study aimed to evaluate the usability (ease of use) and utility (impact on user's decision-making process) of a web-based patient decision aid (PDA) among older-age users. A pragmatic, qualitative research design was used. We recruited patients with type 2 diabetes who were at the point of making a decision about starting insulin from a tertiary teaching hospital in Malaysia in 2014. Computer screen recording software was used to record the website browsing session and in-depth interviews were conducted while playing back the website recording. The interviews were analyzed using the framework approach to identify usability and utility issues. Three cycles of iteration were conducted until no more major issues emerged. Thirteen patients participated: median age 65 years old, 10 men, and nine had secondary education/diploma, four were graduates/had postgraduate degree. Four usability issues were identified (navigation between pages and sections, a layout with open display, simple language, and equipment preferences). For utility, participants commented that the website influenced their decision about insulin in three ways: it had provided information about insulin, it helped them deliberate choices using the option-attribute matrix, and it allowed them to involve others in their decision making by sharing the PDA summary printout.
False alarms and incorrect rejections in an information security center: correlation with the frequency of incidents.

PubMed

Bruno, Thiers; Abrahão, Julia

2012-01-01

This study examines the actions taken by operators aimed at preventing and combating information security incidents at a banking organization. The work utilizes the theoretical framework of ergonomics and cognitive psychology. The method is workplace ergonomic analysis. Its focus is directed towards examining the cognitive dimension of the work environment with special attention to the occurrence of correlations between variability in incident frequency and the results of sign detection actions. It categorizes 45,142 operator decisions according to the theory of signal detection (Sternberg, 2000). It analyzes the correlation between incident proportions (indirectly associated with the cognitive efforts demanded from the operator) and operator decisions. The study demonstrated the existence of a positive correlation between incident proportions and false positive decisions (false alarms). However, this correlation could not be observed in relation to decisions of the false-negative type (incorrect rejection).

Expected Utility Based Decision Making under Z-Information and Its Application.

PubMed

Aliev, Rashad R; Mraiziq, Derar Atallah Talal; Huseynov, Oleg H

2015-01-01

Real-world decision relevant information is often partially reliable. The reasons are partial reliability of the source of information, misperceptions, psychological biases, incompetence, and so forth. Z-numbers based formalization of information (Z-information) represents a natural language (NL) based value of a variable of interest in line with the related NL based reliability. What is important is that Z-information not only is the most general representation of real-world imperfect information but also has the highest descriptive power from human perception point of view as compared to fuzzy number. In this study, we present an approach to decision making under Z-information based on direct computation over Z-numbers. This approach utilizes expected utility paradigm and is applied to a benchmark decision problem in the field of economics.
Cost-Utility Analysis of Bariatric Surgery in Italy: Results of Decision-Analytic Modelling.

PubMed

Lucchese, Marcello; Borisenko, Oleg; Mantovani, Lorenzo Giovanni; Cortesi, Paolo Angelo; Cesana, Giancarlo; Adam, Daniel; Burdukova, Elisabeth; Lukyanov, Vasily; Di Lorenzo, Nicola

2017-01-01

To evaluate the cost-effectiveness of bariatric surgery in Italy from a third-party payer perspective over a medium-term (10 years) and a long-term (lifetime) horizon. A state-transition Markov model was developed, in which patients may experience surgery, post-surgery complications, diabetes mellitus type 2, cardiovascular diseases or die. Transition probabilities, costs, and utilities were obtained from the Italian and international literature. Three types of surgeries were considered: gastric bypass, sleeve gastrectomy, and adjustable gastric banding. A base-case analysis was performed for the population, the characteristics of which were obtained from surgery candidates in Italy. In the base-case analysis, over 10 years, bariatric surgery led to cost increment of EUR 2,661 and generated additional 1.1 quality-adjusted life years (QALYs). Over a lifetime, surgery led to savings of EUR 8,649, additional 0.5 life years and 3.2 QALYs. Bariatric surgery was cost-effective at 10 years with an incremental cost-effectiveness ratio of EUR 2,412/QALY and dominant over conservative management over a lifetime. In a comprehensive decision analytic model, a current mix of surgical methods for bariatric surgery was cost-effective at 10 years and cost-saving over the lifetime of the Italian patient cohort considered in this analysis. © 2017 The Author(s) Published by S. Karger GmbH, Freiburg.
Combining statistical inference and decisions in ecology

USGS Publications Warehouse

Williams, Perry J.; Hooten, Mevin B.

2016-01-01

Statistical decision theory (SDT) is a sub-field of decision theory that formally incorporates statistical investigation into a decision-theoretic framework to account for uncertainties in a decision problem. SDT provides a unifying analysis of three types of information: statistical results from a data set, knowledge of the consequences of potential choices (i.e., loss), and prior beliefs about a system. SDT links the theoretical development of a large body of statistical methods including point estimation, hypothesis testing, and confidence interval estimation. The theory and application of SDT have mainly been developed and published in the fields of mathematics, statistics, operations research, and other decision sciences, but have had limited exposure in ecology. Thus, we provide an introduction to SDT for ecologists and describe its utility for linking the conventionally separate tasks of statistical investigation and decision making in a single framework. We describe the basic framework of both Bayesian and frequentist SDT, its traditional use in statistics, and discuss its application to decision problems that occur in ecology. We demonstrate SDT with two types of decisions: Bayesian point estimation, and an applied management problem of selecting a prescribed fire rotation for managing a grassland bird species. Central to SDT, and decision theory in general, are loss functions. Thus, we also provide basic guidance and references for constructing loss functions for an SDT problem.
[Involving patients, the insured and the general public in healthcare decision making].

PubMed

Mühlbacher, Axel C; Juhnke, Christin

2016-01-01

No doubt, the public should be involved in healthcare decision making, especially when decision makers from politics and self-government agencies are faced with the difficult task of setting priorities. There is a general consensus on the need for a stronger patient centeredness, even in HTA processes, and internationally different ways of public participation are discussed and tested in decision making processes. This paper describes how the public can be involved in different decision situations, and it shows how preference measurement methods are currently being used in an international context to support decision making. It distinguishes between different levels of decision making on health technologies: approval, assessment, pricing, and finally utilization. The range of participation efforts extends from qualitative surveys of patients' needs (Citizen Councils of NICE in the UK) to science-based documentation of quantitative patient preferences, such as in the current pilot projects of the FDA in the US and the EMA at the European level. Possible approaches for the elicitation and documentation of preference structures and trade-offs in relation to alternate health technologies are decision aids, such as multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA), that provide the necessary information for weighting and prioritizing decision criteria. Copyright © 2015. Published by Elsevier GmbH.
Cost utility of maintenance treatment of recurrent depression with sertraline versus episodic treatment with dothiepin.

PubMed

Hatziandreu, E J; Brown, R E; Revicki, D A; Turner, R; Martindale, J; Levine, S; Siegel, J E

1994-03-01

The objective of this study was to model, for patients at risk of recurrent depression, the cost-utility of maintenance therapy with sertraline compared with treatment of acute episodes with dothiepin ('episodic treatment'). Using clinical decision analysis techniques, a Markov state-transition model was constructed to estimate the lifetime costs and quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs) of the 2 therapeutic strategies. The model follows 2 cohorts of 35-year-old women at high risk for recurrent depression over their lifetimes. Model construction and relevant data (probabilities) for performing the analysis were based on existing clinical knowledge. Two physician panels were used to obtain estimates of recurrence probabilities not available in the literature, health utilities, and resource consumption. Costs were obtained from published sources. The baseline analysis showed that it costs 2172 British pounds sterling ($US3692, 1991 currency) to save an additional QALY with sertraline maintenance treatment. Sensitivity analysis showed that the incremental cost-utility ratio ranged from 557 British pounds sterling to 5260 British pounds sterling per QALY. Overall, the resulting ratios are considered to be well within the range of cost-utility ratios that support the adoption and appropriate utilisation of a technology. Based on the study assumptions, long term maintenance treatment with sertraline appears to be clinically and economically justified choice for patients at high risk of recurrent depression.
Simultaneous Visualization of Different Utility Networks for Disaster Management

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Semm, S.; Becker, T.; Kolbe, T. H.

2012-07-01

Cartographic visualizations of crises are used to create a Common Operational Picture (COP) and enforce Situational Awareness by presenting and representing relevant information. As nearly all crises affect geospatial entities, geo-data representations have to support location-specific decision-making throughout the crises. Since, Operator's attention span and their working memory are limiting factors for the process of getting and interpreting information; the cartographic presentation has to support individuals in coordinating their activities and with handling highly dynamic situations. The Situational Awareness of operators in conjunction with a COP are key aspects of the decision making process and essential for coming to appropriate decisions. Utility networks are one of the most complex and most needed systems within a city. The visualization of utility infrastructure in crisis situations is addressed in this paper. The paper will provide a conceptual approach on how to simplify, aggregate, and visualize multiple utility networks and their components to meet the requirements of the decision-making process and to support Situational Awareness.
Reliability analysis of a robotic system using hybridized technique

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kumar, Naveen; Komal; Lather, J. S.

2017-09-01

In this manuscript, the reliability of a robotic system has been analyzed using the available data (containing vagueness, uncertainty, etc). Quantification of involved uncertainties is done through data fuzzification using triangular fuzzy numbers with known spreads as suggested by system experts. With fuzzified data, if the existing fuzzy lambda-tau (FLT) technique is employed, then the computed reliability parameters have wide range of predictions. Therefore, decision-maker cannot suggest any specific and influential managerial strategy to prevent unexpected failures and consequently to improve complex system performance. To overcome this problem, the present study utilizes a hybridized technique. With this technique, fuzzy set theory is utilized to quantify uncertainties, fault tree is utilized for the system modeling, lambda-tau method is utilized to formulate mathematical expressions for failure/repair rates of the system, and genetic algorithm is utilized to solve established nonlinear programming problem. Different reliability parameters of a robotic system are computed and the results are compared with the existing technique. The components of the robotic system follow exponential distribution, i.e., constant. Sensitivity analysis is also performed and impact on system mean time between failures (MTBF) is addressed by varying other reliability parameters. Based on analysis some influential suggestions are given to improve the system performance.
Bayesian approaches for Integrated Water Resources Management. A Mediterranean case study.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gulliver, Zacarías; Herrero, Javier; José Polo, María

2013-04-01

This study presents the first steps of a short-term/mid-term analysis of the water resources in the Guadalfeo Basin, Spain. Within the basin the recent construction of the Rules dam has required the development of specific management tools and structures for this water system. The climate variability and the high water demand requirements for agriculture irrigation and tourism in this region may cause different controversies in the water management planning process. During the first stages of the study a rigorous analysis of the Water Framework Directive results was done in order to implement the legal requirements and the solutions for the gaps identified by the water authorities. In addition, the stakeholders and water experts identified the variables and geophysical processes for our specific water system case. These particularities need to be taken into account and are required to be reflected in the final computational tool. For decision making process purposes in a mid-term scale, a bayesian network has been used to quantify uncertainty which also provides a structure representation of probabilities, actions-decisions and utilities. On one hand by applying these techniques it is possible the inclusion of decision rules generating influence diagrams that provides clear and coherent semantics for the value of making an observation. On the other hand the utility nodes encode the stakeholders preferences which are measured on a numerical scale, choosing the action that maximizes the expected utility [MEU]. Also this graphical model allows us to identify gaps and project corrective measures, for example, formulating associated scenarios with different event hypotheses. In this sense conditional probability distributions of the seasonal water demand and waste water has been obtained between the established intervals. This fact will give to the regional water managers useful information for future decision making process. The final display is very visual and allows the user to understand quickly the model and the causal relationships between the existing nodes and variables. The input data were collected from the local monitoring networks and the unmonitored data has been generated with a physically based spatially distributed hydrological model WiMMed, which is validated and calibrated. For short-term purposes, pattern analysis has been applied for the management of extreme events scenarios, techniques as Bayesian Neural Networks (BNN) or Gaussian Processes (GP) giving accuracy on the predictions.
Life cycle costing as a decision making tool for technology acquisition in radio-diagnosis

PubMed Central

Chakravarty, Abhijit; Debnath, Jyotindu

2014-01-01

Background Life cycle costing analysis is an emerging conceptual tool to validate capital investment in healthcare. Methods A preliminary study was done to analyze the long-term cost impact of acquiring a new 3 T MRI system when compared to technological upgradation of the existing 1.5 T MRI system with a view to evolve a decision matrix for correct investment planning and technology management. Operating costing method was utilized to estimate cost per unit MRI scan, costing inputs were considered for the existing 1.5 T and the proposed 3 T machine. Cost for each expected year in the life span of both 1.5 T and 3 T MRI scan options were then discounted to its Net Present Value. Net Present Value thus calculated for both the alternative options of 1.5 T and 3 T MRI machine was charted along with various intangible but critical Figures of Merit (FOM) to create a decision matrix for capital investment planning. Result Considering all fixed and variable costs contributing towards assumed operation, unit cost per MRI procedure was found to be Rs. 4244.58 for the 1.5 T upgrade and Rs. 6059.37 for the new 3 T MRI machine. Life Cycle Cost Analysis of the proposed 1.5 T upgrade and new 3 T machine showed a Net Present Value of Rs. 42,148,587.80 and Rs. 27,587,842.38 respectively. Conclusion The utility of life cycle costing as a strategic decision making tool towards evaluating alternative options for capital investment planning in health care environment is reiterated. PMID:25609862
Colorado Public Utility Commission's Xcel Wind Decision

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Lehr, R. L.; Nielsen, J.; Andrews, S.

2001-09-20

In early 2001 the Colorado Public Utility Commission ordered Xcel Energy to undertake good faith negotiations for a wind plant as part of the utility's integrated resource plan. This paper summarizes the key points of the PUC decision, which addressed the wind plant's projected impact on generation cost and ancillary services. The PUC concluded that the wind plant would cost less than new gas-fired generation under reasonable gas cost projections.
Improving utility of evidence synthesis for healthy public policy: the three Rs (relevance, rigor, and readability [and resources]).

PubMed

Thomson, Hilary

2013-08-01

Systematic reviews have the potential to promote knowledge exchange between researchers and decision-makers. Review planning requires engagement with evidence users to ensure preparation of relevant reviews, and well-conducted reviews should provide accessible and reliable synthesis to support decision-making. Yet, systematic reviews are not routinely referred to by decision-makers, and innovative approaches to improve the utility of reviews is needed. Evidence synthesis for healthy public policy is typically complex and methodologically challenging. Although not lessening the value of reviews, these challenges can be overwhelming and threaten their utility. Using the interrelated principles of relevance, rigor, and readability, and in light of available resources, this article considers how utility of evidence synthesis for healthy public policy might be improved.
Improving Utility of Evidence Synthesis for Healthy Public Policy: the Three Rs (Relevance, Rigor, and Readability [and Resources])

PubMed Central

2013-01-01

Systematic reviews have the potential to promote knowledge exchange between researchers and decision-makers. Review planning requires engagement with evidence users to ensure preparation of relevant reviews, and well-conducted reviews should provide accessible and reliable synthesis to support decision-making. Yet, systematic reviews are not routinely referred to by decision-makers, and innovative approaches to improve the utility of reviews is needed. Evidence synthesis for healthy public policy is typically complex and methodologically challenging. Although not lessening the value of reviews, these challenges can be overwhelming and threaten their utility. Using the interrelated principles of relevance, rigor, and readability, and in light of available resources, this article considers how utility of evidence synthesis for healthy public policy might be improved. PMID:23763400
Using Computational Modeling to Assess the Impact of Clinical Decision Support on Cancer Screening within Community Health Centers

PubMed Central

Carney, Timothy Jay; Morgan, Geoffrey P.; Jones, Josette; McDaniel, Anna M.; Weaver, Michael; Weiner, Bryan; Haggstrom, David A.

2014-01-01

Our conceptual model demonstrates our goal to investigate the impact of clinical decision support (CDS) utilization on cancer screening improvement strategies in the community health care (CHC) setting. We employed a dual modeling technique using both statistical and computational modeling to evaluate impact. Our statistical model used the Spearman’s Rho test to evaluate the strength of relationship between our proximal outcome measures (CDS utilization) against our distal outcome measure (provider self-reported cancer screening improvement). Our computational model relied on network evolution theory and made use of a tool called Construct-TM to model the use of CDS measured by the rate of organizational learning. We employed the use of previously collected survey data from community health centers Cancer Health Disparities Collaborative (HDCC). Our intent is to demonstrate the added valued gained by using a computational modeling tool in conjunction with a statistical analysis when evaluating the impact a health information technology, in the form of CDS, on health care quality process outcomes such as facility-level screening improvement. Significant simulated disparities in organizational learning over time were observed between community health centers beginning the simulation with high and low clinical decision support capability. PMID:24953241
Influences on corporate executive decision behavior in government acquisitions

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Wetherington, J. R.

1986-01-01

This paper presents extensive exploratory research which had as its primary objective, the discovery and determination of major areas of concern exhibited by U.S. corporate executives in the preparation and submittal of proposals and bids to the Federal government. The existence of numerous unique concerns inherent in corporate strategies within the government market environment was established. A determination of the relationship of these concerns to each other was accomplished utilizing statistical factor analysis techniques resulting in the identification of major groupings of management concerns. Finally, using analysis of variance, an analysis and discovery of the interrelationship of the factors to corporate demographics was accomplished. The existence of separate and distinct concerns exhibited by corporate executives when contemplating sales and operations in the government marketplace was established. It was also demonstrated that quantifiable relationships exist between such variables and that the decision behavior exhibited by the responsible executives has an interrelationship to their company's demographics.
Exploring the relationship between planning and procurement in Western U.S. electric utilities

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Carvallo Bodelon, Juan Pablo; Sanstad, Alan H.; Larsen, Peter H.

Integrated resource planning (IRP) is an important regulatory process used in many U.S. states to formulate and evaluate least-cost and risk-assessed portfolios to meet future load requirements for electric utilities. In principle, effective implementation of IRP seeks to assure regulators and the public that utility investment decisions, given uncertainty, are as cost-effective as possible. However, to date, there is no empirical assessment on the effectiveness of IRP implementation. In this analysis, we compare planning, procurement processes and actual decisions for a sample of twelve load serving entities (LSEs) across the Western U. S. from 2003-2014. The 2008/2009 recession provides amore » unique “stress test” to the planning process and offers an excellent opportunity to trace how procurement decisions responded to this largely unforeseen event. In aggregate, there is a general alignment between planned and procured supply-side capacity. However, there are significant differences in the choice of supply-side resources and type of ownership for individual LSEs. We develop case studies for three LSEs and find that subsequent plans differ significantly due to changes in the planning environment and that procurement decisions in some cases are impacted by factors that are not accounted for in the planning process. Our results reveal that a limited amount of information produced during the long-term planning process (e.g., forecasts, methods, and least cost/risk portfolios) are ultimately used during the procurement process, and that the latter process relies extensively on the most recent information available for decision making. These findings suggest that states' IRP rules and regulations mandating long-term planning horizons with the same analytical complexity throughout the planning period may not create useful information for the procurement process. The social value of a long-term planning process that departs from procurement and the balance between transparency and complexity of the planning and procurement processes is an open question.« less
Risk-based decision making for terrorism applications.

PubMed

Dillon, Robin L; Liebe, Robert M; Bestafka, Thomas

2009-03-01

This article describes the anti-terrorism risk-based decision aid (ARDA), a risk-based decision-making approach for prioritizing anti-terrorism measures. The ARDA model was developed as part of a larger effort to assess investments for protecting U.S. Navy assets at risk and determine whether the most effective anti-terrorism alternatives are being used to reduce the risk to the facilities and war-fighting assets. With ARDA and some support from subject matter experts, we examine thousands of scenarios composed of 15 attack modes against 160 facility types on two installations and hundreds of portfolios of 22 mitigation alternatives. ARDA uses multiattribute utility theory to solve some of the commonly identified challenges in security risk analysis. This article describes the process and documents lessons learned from applying the ARDA model for this application.
Decision-Support Tools and Databases to Inform Regional Stormwater Utility Development in New England

EPA Science Inventory

Development of stormwater utilities requires information on existing stormwater infrastructure and impervious cover as well as costs and benefits of stormwater management options. US EPA has developed a suite of databases and tools that can inform decision-making by regional sto...
Determining rules for closing customer service centers: A public utility company's fuzzy decision

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Dekorvin, Andre; Shipley, Margaret F.

1992-01-01

In the present work, we consider the general problem of knowledge acquisition under uncertainty. A commonly used method is to learn by examples. We observe how the expert solves specific cases and from this infer some rules by which the decision was made. Unique to this work is the fuzzy set representation of the conditions or attributes upon which the decision make may base his fuzzy set decision. From our examples, we infer certain and possible rules containing fuzzy terms. It should be stressed that the procedure determines how closely the expert follows the conditions under consideration in making his decision. We offer two examples pertaining to the possible decision to close a customer service center of a public utility company. In the first example, the decision maker does not follow too closely the conditions. In the second example, the conditions are much more relevant to the decision of the expert.
Hierarchical Bayesian analysis of outcome- and process-based social preferences and beliefs in Dictator Games and sequential Prisoner's Dilemmas.

PubMed

Aksoy, Ozan; Weesie, Jeroen

2014-05-01

In this paper, using a within-subjects design, we estimate the utility weights that subjects attach to the outcome of their interaction partners in four decision situations: (1) binary Dictator Games (DG), second player's role in the sequential Prisoner's Dilemma (PD) after the first player (2) cooperated and (3) defected, and (4) first player's role in the sequential Prisoner's Dilemma game. We find that the average weights in these four decision situations have the following order: (1)>(2)>(4)>(3). Moreover, the average weight is positive in (1) but negative in (2), (3), and (4). Our findings indicate the existence of strong negative and small positive reciprocity for the average subject, but there is also high interpersonal variation in the weights in these four nodes. We conclude that the PD frame makes subjects more competitive than the DG frame. Using hierarchical Bayesian modeling, we simultaneously analyze beliefs of subjects about others' utility weights in the same four decision situations. We compare several alternative theoretical models on beliefs, e.g., rational beliefs (Bayesian-Nash equilibrium) and a consensus model. Our results on beliefs strongly support the consensus effect and refute rational beliefs: there is a strong relationship between own preferences and beliefs and this relationship is relatively stable across the four decision situations. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.
Policy formulation and technology assessment.

PubMed

Banta, H D; Behney, C J

1981-01-01

Describes technology assessment and its application to the health field; examines evaluation of efficacy, safety, and cost effectiveness; discusses the use of technology assessment in policy formulation, especially by federal programs; suggests a system for assessment of medical technologies; and offers some observations about the future of technology assessment in policy making. Technology assessment began formally in 1965 in the Committee on Science and Astronautics of the House of Representatives as a process of examining technology and its impacts. Only a few attempts have been made since then to apply the concepts of technology assessment to health care. The amount of money currently devoted to assessing the efficacy and safety of medical technologies is small, and many important technologies have not been assessed. Priorities for clinical trials should therefore be set. Cost effectiveness analysis is a useful tool in decision making but because of its inherent limitations, it should not be the sole or even primary determinant of a decision. Technology assessment is apparently infrequently used as a decision-assisting tool by 3rd party payers, federal government agencies funding biomedical research, or the federal program which is designed to control physician utilization of certain technologies. Only the FDA regularly utilizes technology assessment. A systematic program of technology assessment would require identification of technologies needing testing, setting of priorities for such tests, synthesizing of information gained and its dessemination to decision makers.

Multiattribute Decision Modeling Techniques: A Comparative Analysis

DTIC Science & Technology

1988-08-01

Analytic Hierarchy Process ( AHP ). It is structurally similar to SMART, but elicitation methods are different and there are several algorithms for...reconciliation of inconsistent judgments and for consistency checks that are not available in any of the utility procedures. The AHP has been applied...of commercially available software packages that implement the AHP algorithms. Elicitation Methods. The AHP builds heavily on value trees, which
A Method for Increasing the Training Effectiveness of Marine Corps Tactical Exercises: A Pilot Study.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Rocklyn, Eugene H.; And Others

Methods for better utilizing simulated combat systems for training officers are required by the Marine Corps to ensure efficient acquisition of combat decision-making skills. In support of this requirement, a review and analysis of several combat training systems helped to identify a set of major training problems. These included the small number…
2015 Distributed Wind Market Report

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Orrell, Alice C.; Foster, Nikolas A.F.; Homer, Juliet S.

The U.S. Department of Energy’s (DOE’s) annual Distributed Wind Market Report provides stakeholders with statistics and analysis of the market along with insights into its trends and characteristics. By providing a comprehensive overview of the distributed wind market, this report can help plan and guide future investments and decisions by industry, utilities, federal and state agencies, and other interested parties.
Supporting NASA Facilities Through GIS

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Ingham, Mary E.

2000-01-01

The NASA GIS Team supports NASA facilities and partners in the analysis of spatial data. Geographic Information System (G[S) is an integration of computer hardware, software, and personnel linking topographic, demographic, utility, facility, image, and other geo-referenced data. The system provides a graphic interface to relational databases and supports decision making processes such as planning, design, maintenance and repair, and emergency response.
From scientific discovery to cures: bright stars within a galaxy.

PubMed

Williams, R Sanders; Lotia, Samad; Holloway, Alisha K; Pico, Alexander R

2015-09-24

We propose that data mining and network analysis utilizing public databases can identify and quantify relationships between scientific discoveries and major advances in medicine (cures). Further development of such approaches could help to increase public understanding and governmental support for life science research and could enhance decision making in the quest for cures. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.
The South Carolina Title V Program in Perspective: Three Models of Purposive Change.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Jacob, Nelson L.; And Others

The utility of Rothman's three ideal types of social action as applied to community issues and Extension agents were explored via analysis of condensed case study materials describing decisions and activities surrounding a specific issue in the target county of a Title V (Rural Development Act of 1972) Project in South Carolina. The three Rothman…
The effect of sample holder material on ion mobility spectrometry reproducibility

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Jadamec, J. Richard; Su, Chih-Wu; Rigdon, Stephen; Norwood, Lavan

1995-01-01

When a positive detection of a narcotic occurs during the search of a vessel, a decision has to be made whether further intensive search is warranted. This decision is based in part on the results of a second sample collected from the same area. Therefore, the reproducibility of both sampling and instrumental analysis is critical in terms of justifying an in depth search. As reported at the 2nd Annual IMS Conference in Quebec City, the U.S. Coast Guard has determined that when paper is utilized as the sample desorption medium for the Barringer IONSCAN, the analytical results using standard reference samples are reproducible. A study was conducted utilizing papers of varying pore sizes and comparing their performance as a desorption material relative to the standard Barringer 50 micron Teflon. Nominal pore sizes ranged from 30 microns down to 2 microns. Results indicate that there is some peak instability in the first two to three windows during the analysis. The severity of the instability was observed to increase as the pore size of the paper is decreased. However, the observed peak instability does not create a situation that results in a decreased reliability or reproducibility in the analytical result.
Analysis of Advanced Respiratory Support Onboard ISS and CCV

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Shah, Ronak V.; Kertsman, Eric L.; Alexander, David J.; Duchesne, Ted; Law, Jennifer; Roden, Sean K.

2014-01-01

NASA is collaborating with private entities for the development of commercial space vehicles. The Space and Clinical Operations Division was tasked to review the oxygen and respiratory support system and recommend what capabilities, if any, the vehicle should have to support the return of an ill or injured crewmember. The Integrated Medical Model (IMM) was utilized as a data source for the development of these recommendations. The Integrated Medical Model (IMM) was used to simulate a six month, six crew, International Space Station (ISS) mission. Three medical system scenarios were considered based on the availability of (1) oxygen only, (2) oxygen and a ventilator, or (3) neither oxygen nor ventilator. The IMM analysis provided probability estimates of medical events that would require either oxygen or ventilator support. It also provided estimates of crew health, the probability of evacuation, and the probability of loss of crew life secondary to medical events for each of the three medical system scenarios. These IMM outputs were used as objective data to enable evidence-based decisions regarding oxygen and respiratory support system requirements for commercial crew vehicles. The IMM provides data that may be utilized to support informed decisions regarding the development of medical systems for commercial crew vehicles.
Utility measurement in healthcare: the things I never got to.

PubMed

Torrance, George W

2006-01-01

The present article provides a brief historical background on the development of utility measurement and cost-utility analysis in healthcare. It then outlines a number of research ideas in this field that the author never got to. The first idea is extremely fundamental. Why is health economics the only application of economics that does not use the discipline of economics? And, more importantly, what discipline should it use? Research ideas are discussed to investigate precisely the underlying theory and axiom systems of both Paretian welfare economics and the decision-theoretical utility approach. Can the two approaches be integrated or modified in some appropriate way so that they better reflect the needs of the health field? The investigation is described both for the individual and societal levels. Constructing a 'Robinson Crusoe' society of only a few individuals with different health needs, preferences and willingness to pay is suggested as a method for gaining insight into the problem. The second idea concerns the interval property of utilities and, therefore, QALYs. It specifically concerns the important requirement that changes of equal magnitude anywhere on the utility scale, or alternatively on the QALY scale, should be equally desirable. Unfortunately, one of the original restrictions on utility theory states that such comparisons are not permitted by the theory. It is shown, in an important new finding, that while this restriction applies in a world of certainty, it does not in a world of uncertainty, such as healthcare. Further research is suggested to investigate this property under both certainty and uncertainty. Other research ideas that are described include: the development of a precise axiomatic basis for the time trade-off method; the investigation of chaining as a method of preference measurement with the standard gamble or time trade-off; the development and training of a representative panel of the general public to improve the completeness, coherence and consistency of measured preferences; and the investigation, using a model of a very small society, of the conflict between the patient perspective and the societal perspective regarding preferences. Finally, it is suggested that an important area of research, which the author never got to, would be to work closely with specific decision makers on specific decision problems, to help them formulate the problem, provide useful analyses, and to publish these as case studies to give the field a better understanding of the problems and the needs of decision makers.
Fuzzy indicator approach: development of impact factor of soil amendments

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Soil amendments have been shown to be useful for improving soil condition, but it is often difficult to make management decisions as to their usefulness. Utilization of Fuzzy Set Theory is a promising method for decision support associated with utilization of soil amendments. In this article a tool ...
The Two-Communities Theory and Knowledge Utilization.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Caplan, Nathan

1979-01-01

Discusses strategies to improve policy makers' utilization of research based on the "two-communities" theory that social scientists and policy makers live in two different worlds. Notes that for high level decision making, collaboration must involve more general problems and a decision to use either data-based or nonresearch knowledge for solving…
42 CFR 456.438 - Time limits for notification of adverse decision.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-10-01

... 42 Public Health 4 2010-10-01 2010-10-01 false Time limits for notification of adverse decision... AND HUMAN SERVICES (CONTINUED) MEDICAL ASSISTANCE PROGRAMS UTILIZATION CONTROL Utilization Control: Intermediate Care Facilities Ur Plan: Review of Need for Continued Stay § 456.438 Time limits for notification...
42 CFR 456.438 - Time limits for notification of adverse decision.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-10-01

... 42 Public Health 4 2011-10-01 2011-10-01 false Time limits for notification of adverse decision... AND HUMAN SERVICES (CONTINUED) MEDICAL ASSISTANCE PROGRAMS UTILIZATION CONTROL Utilization Control: Intermediate Care Facilities Ur Plan: Review of Need for Continued Stay § 456.438 Time limits for notification...
The Practice of Evaluation Research and the Use of Evaluation Results.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Van den Berg, G.; Hoeben, W. Th. J. G.

1984-01-01

Lack of use of educational evaluation results in the Netherlands was investigated by analyzing 14 curriculum evaluation studies. Results indicated that rational decision making with a technical (empirical) evaluation approach makes utilization of results most likely. Incremental decision making and a conformative approach make utilization least…
Historical Development of Simulation Models of Recreation Use

Treesearch

Jan W. van Wagtendonk; David N. Cole

2005-01-01

The potential utility of modeling as a park and wilderness management tool has been recognized for decades. Romesburg (1974) explored how mathematical decision modeling could be used to improve decisions about regulation of wilderness use. Cesario (1975) described a computer simulation modeling approach that utilized GPSS (General Purpose Systems Simulator), a...
Method and apparatus for determining and utilizing a time-expanded decision network

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

de Weck, Olivier (Inventor); Silver, Matthew (Inventor)

2012-01-01

A method, apparatus and computer program for determining and utilizing a time-expanded decision network is presented. A set of potential system configurations is defined. Next, switching costs are quantified to create a "static network" that captures the difficulty of switching among these configurations. A time-expanded decision network is provided by expanding the static network in time, including chance and decision nodes. Minimum cost paths through the network are evaluated under plausible operating scenarios. The set of initial design configurations are iteratively modified to exploit high-leverage switches and the process is repeated to convergence. Time-expanded decision networks are applicable, but not limited to, the design of systems, products, services and contracts.
Looking at patients' choices through the lens of expected utility: a critique and research agenda.

PubMed

Russell, Louise B; Schwartz, Alan

2012-01-01

The expected utility framework underlies much research in medical decision making. Because the framework requires decisions to be decomposed into probabilities of states and the values of those states, researchers have investigated the two components separately from each other and from patients' actual decisions. The authors propose that it would be productive to focus more research on the relationships among risk perceptions, outcome valuations, and choices in the same decision makers. They outline exploratory analyses based on two existing national surveys, the Medical Expenditure Panel Survey and the Joint Canada/United States Survey of Health.
A multiscale forecasting method for power plant fleet management

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chen, Hongmei

In recent years the electric power industry has been challenged by a high level of uncertainty and volatility brought on by deregulation and globalization. A power producer must minimize the life cycle cost while meeting stringent safety and regulatory requirements and fulfilling customer demand for high reliability. Therefore, to achieve true system excellence, a more sophisticated system-level decision-making process with a more accurate forecasting support system to manage diverse and often widely dispersed generation units as a single, easily scaled and deployed fleet system in order to fully utilize the critical assets of a power producer has been created as a response. The process takes into account the time horizon for each of the major decision actions taken in a power plant and develops methods for information sharing between them. These decisions are highly interrelated and no optimal operation can be achieved without sharing information in the overall process. The process includes a forecasting system to provide information for planning for uncertainty. A new forecasting method is proposed, which utilizes a synergy of several modeling techniques properly combined at different time-scales of the forecasting objects. It can not only take advantages of the abundant historical data but also take into account the impact of pertinent driving forces from the external business environment to achieve more accurate forecasting results. Then block bootstrap is utilized to measure the bias in the estimate of the expected life cycle cost which will actually be needed to drive the business for a power plant in the long run. Finally, scenario analysis is used to provide a composite picture of future developments for decision making or strategic planning. The decision-making process is applied to a typical power producer chosen to represent challenging customer demand during high-demand periods. The process enhances system excellence by providing more accurate market information, evaluating the impact of external business environment, and considering cross-scale interactions between decision actions. Along with this process, system operation strategies, maintenance schedules, and capacity expansion plans that guide the operation of the power plant are optimally identified, and the total life cycle costs are estimated.
Adding Liver Stiffness Measurement to the Routine Evaluation of Hepatocellular Carcinoma Resectability Can Optimize Clinical Outcome.

PubMed

Cucchetti, Alessandro; Cescon, Matteo; Colecchia, Antonio; Neri, Flavia; Cappelli, Alberta; Ravaioli, Matteo; Mazzotti, Federico; Ercolani, Giorgio; Festi, Davide; Pinna, Antonio Daniele

2017-10-01

Purpose Liver stiffness (LS) has been shown to be of use in chronic liver disease patients but its utility in surgical judgment still needs to be proven. A decision-making approach was applied to evaluate whether LS measurement before surgery of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) can be useful in avoiding post-hepatectomy liver failure (PHLF). Materials and Methods Decision curve analysis (DCA) was applied to 202 HCC patients (2008 - 14) with LS measurement prior to hepatectomy to verify whether the occurrence of PHLF grades B/C should be reduced through a decision-making approach with LS. Results Within 90 days of surgery, 4 patients died (2 %) and grades B/C PHLF occurred in 29.7 % of cases. Ascites and/or pleural effusion, treatable with medical therapy, were the most frequent complications. DCA showed that using the "expected utility theory" LS measurement can reduce up to 39 % of cases of PHLF without the exclusion of any patient from surgery that duly undergoes an uncomplicated postoperative course. LS measurement does not add any information to normal clinical judgment for patients with a low (< 10 %) risk of PHLF. Conclusion LS measurement can determine a reduction of PHLF under "expected utility theory" fulfilment. However, the degree of PHLF can be minor and "risk seeking" individuals can accept such a risk on the basis of surgical benefits. © Georg Thieme Verlag KG Stuttgart · New York.
The Utility of 5 Hypothetical Health States in Heart Failure Using Time Trade-Off (TTO) and EQ-5D-5L in Korea.

PubMed

Hong, Sung-Hyun; Lee, Jae-Yeon; Park, Sun-Kyeong; Nam, Jin Hyun; Song, Hyun Jin; Park, Sun-Young; Lee, Eui-Kyung

2018-05-26

Utility provides a preference for specific health state in economic evaluation, and they obtained from general population could be useful in respect of societal resource allocation. We aimed to investigate the utilities of health states for heart failure (HF), a major and growing public health problem, related to hospitalization and adverse drug effects by interrogating the general Korean population. Five health states for patients with HF were developed based on literature reviews: stable chronic heart failure (SCHF), hospitalization, SCHF + cough, SCHF + hypotension, and SCHF + hyperkalemia. We selected 100 individuals from the general population through quota sampling by age, sex, and region, and conducted face-to-face interviews. We measured utilities for 5 hypothetical health states of HF using both time trade-off (TTO) and EuroQol-5 dimensions-5 levels (EQ-5D-5L). Repeated-measures analysis of variance compared the utilities between all health states for each instrument. To identify the factors affecting the utility, a linear mixed model (LMM) analysis was performed. The mean utility value for SCHF, SCHF + cough, SCHF + hypotension, SCHF + hyperkalemia, and hospitalization was calculated as 0.815, 0.732, 0.646, 0.548, and 0.360, respectively, by using TTO. The respective values using EQ-5D-5L were 0.871, 0.793, 0.710, 0.589, and 0.215. The utilities for HF significantly differed between all health states in each instrument (p < 0.001). In LMM analysis, hospitalization had a significantly negative effect on the utilities of both instruments. The utilities decreased in order of SCHF, SCHF + cough, SCHF + hypotension, SCHF + hyperkalemia, and hospitalization. These results can be useful for decision making in resource allocation for HF interventions.

[Relations between biomedical variables: mathematical analysis or linear algebra?].

PubMed

Hucher, M; Berlie, J; Brunet, M

1977-01-01

The authors, after a short reminder of one pattern's structure, stress on the possible double approach of relations uniting the variables of this pattern: use of fonctions, what is within the mathematical analysis sphere, use of linear algebra profiting by matricial calculation's development and automatiosation. They precise the respective interests on these methods, their bounds and the imperatives for utilization, according to the kind of variables, of data, and the objective for work, understanding phenomenons or helping towards decision.
Acquisition and production of skilled behavior in dynamic decision-making tasks

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kirlik, Alex

1990-01-01

Ongoing research investigating perceptual and contextual influences on skilled human performance in dynamic decision making environments is discussed. The research is motivated by two general classes of findings in recent decision making research. First, many studies suggest that the concrete context in which a task is presented has strong influences on the psychological processes used to perform the task and on subsequent performance. Second, studies of skilled behavior in a wide variety of task environments typically implicate the perceptual system as an important contributor to decision-making performance, either in its role as a mediator between the current decision context and stored knowledge, or as a mechanism capable of directly initiating activity through the development of a 'trained eye.' Both contextual and perceptual influences place limits on the ability of traditional utility-theoretic accounts of decision-making to guide display design, as variance in behavior due to contextual factors or the development of a perceptual skill is left unexplained. The author outlines a framework in which to view questions of perceptual and contextual influences on behavior and describe an experimental task and analysis technique which will be used to diagnose the possible role of perception in skilled decision making performance.
Incentivizing shared decision making in the USA--where are we now?

PubMed

Durand, Marie-Anne; Barr, Paul J; Walsh, Thom; Elwyn, Glyn

2015-06-01

The Affordable Care Act raised significant interest in the process of shared decision making, the role of patient decision aids, and incentivizing their utilization. However, it has not been clear how best to put incentives into practice, and how the implementation of shared decision making and the use of patient decision aids would be measured. Our goal was to review developments and proposals put forward. We performed a qualitative document analysis following a pragmatic search of Medline, Google, Google Scholar, Business Source Complete (Ebscohost), and LexisNexis from 2009-2013 using the following key words: "Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act", "Decision Making", "Affordable Care Act", "Shared Decision Making", "measurement", "incentives", and "payment." We observed a lack of clarity about how to measure shared decision making, about how best to reward the use of patient decisions aids, and therefore how best to incentivize the process. Many documents clearly imply that providing and disseminating patient decision aids might be equivalent to shared decision making. However, there is little evidence that these tools, when used by patients in advance of clinical encounters, lead to significant change in patient-provider communication. The assessment of shared decision making for performance management remains challenging. Efforts to incentivize shared decision making are at risk of being limited to the promotion of patient decision aids, passing over the opportunity to influence the communication processes between patients and providers. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.
Trajectory selection for the Mariner Jupiter/Saturn 1977 Project

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Dyer, J. S.; Miles, R. F., Jr.

1974-01-01

This paper describes the use of decision analysis to facilitate a group decision-making problem in the selection of trajectories for the two spacecraft of the Mariner Jupiter/Saturn 1977 Project. This NASA project includes the participation of some eighty scientists divided by specialization among eleven science teams. A set of thirty-two candidate trajectory pairs was developed by the Project in collaboration with the science teams. Each science team then ordinally ranked and assigned cardinal utility function values to the trajectory pairs. These data and statistics derived from collective choice rules were used by the scientists in selecting the preferred trajectory pair.
The Ethics of Rationing of Critical Care Services: Should Technology Assessment Play a Role?

PubMed Central

Bloomfield, Eric L.

2009-01-01

The costs of health care continue to increase rapidly and steeply in the United States. One area of great expense is that of intensive care units (ICUs). The causes of inflation have not been addressed effectively. ICU resources could become stretched such that they may no longer be available. This paper discusses some of the ethics and concerns behind decision making when providing ICU services in the United States. In particular, the use of electronic records with decision making tools, risk-analysis methods, and documentation of patient wishes for extraordinary care may help with better utilization of resources in the future. PMID:20798878
Fishing decisions under uncertainty

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Harrison, C.G.

1982-02-01

The drilling manager often is forced by an extended fishing operation to choose between the known costs incurred with abandonment of retrieval attempts and the unknown costs of continuing fishing operations. The successful manager makes the decision that costs the company the least money. Continuing fishing operations beyond some economic limit is failure, even if the fish is retrieved and that portion of the hole saved, because more money has been spent in the fishing attempt than would have been spent by not fishing. The strategy is to minimize losses. This analysis closely follows the theory of utility developed bymore » J. von Neuman and O. Morgenstern. 1 ref.« less
An empirical analysis of the corporate call decision

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Carlson, Murray Dean

1998-12-01

In this thesis we provide insights into the behavior of financial managers of utility companies by studying their decisions to redeem callable preferred shares. In particular, we investigate whether or not an option pricing based model of the call decision, with managers who maximize shareholder value, does a better job of explaining callable preferred share prices and call decisions than do other models of the decision. In order to perform these tests, we extend an empirical technique introduced by Rust (1987) to include the use of information from preferred share prices in addition to the call decisions. The model we develop to value the option embedded in a callable preferred share differs from standard models in two ways. First, as suggested in Kraus (1983), we explicitly account for transaction costs associated with a redemption. Second, we account for state variables that are observed by the decision makers but not by the preferred shareholders. We interpret these unobservable state variables as the benefits and costs associated with a change in capital structure that can accompany a call decision. When we add this variable, our empirical model changes from one which predicts exactly when a share should be called to one which predicts the probability of a call as the function of the observable state. These two modifications of the standard model result in predictions of calls, and therefore of callable preferred share prices, that are consistent with several previously unexplained features of the data; we show that the predictive power of the model is improved in a statistical sense by adding these features to the model. The pricing and call probability functions from our model do a good job of describing call decisions and preferred share prices for several utilities. Using data from shares of the Pacific Gas and Electric Co. (PGE) we obtain reasonable estimates for the transaction costs associated with a call. Using a formal empirical test, we are able to conclude that the managers of the Pacific Gas and Electric Company clearly take into account the value of the option to delay the call when making their call decisions. Overall, the model seems to be robust to tests of its specification and does a better job of describing the data than do simpler models of the decision making process. Limitations in the data do not allow us to perform the same tests in a larger cross-section of utility companies. However, we are able to estimate transaction cost parameters for many firms and these do not seem to vary significantly from those of PGE. This evidence does not cause us to reject our hypothesis that managerial behavior is consistent with a model in which managers maximize shareholder value.
Using whole disease modeling to inform resource allocation decisions: economic evaluation of a clinical guideline for colorectal cancer using a single model.

PubMed

Tappenden, Paul; Chilcott, Jim; Brennan, Alan; Squires, Hazel; Glynne-Jones, Rob; Tappenden, Janine

2013-06-01

To assess the feasibility and value of simulating whole disease and treatment pathways within a single model to provide a common economic basis for informing resource allocation decisions. A patient-level simulation model was developed with the intention of being capable of evaluating multiple topics within National Institute for Health and Clinical Excellence's colorectal cancer clinical guideline. The model simulates disease and treatment pathways from preclinical disease through to detection, diagnosis, adjuvant/neoadjuvant treatments, follow-up, curative/palliative treatments for metastases, supportive care, and eventual death. The model parameters were informed by meta-analyses, randomized trials, observational studies, health utility studies, audit data, costing sources, and expert opinion. Unobservable natural history parameters were calibrated against external data using Bayesian Markov chain Monte Carlo methods. Economic analysis was undertaken using conventional cost-utility decision rules within each guideline topic and constrained maximization rules across multiple topics. Under usual processes for guideline development, piecewise economic modeling would have been used to evaluate between one and three topics. The Whole Disease Model was capable of evaluating 11 of 15 guideline topics, ranging from alternative diagnostic technologies through to treatments for metastatic disease. The constrained maximization analysis identified a configuration of colorectal services that is expected to maximize quality-adjusted life-year gains without exceeding current expenditure levels. This study indicates that Whole Disease Model development is feasible and can allow for the economic analysis of most interventions across a disease service within a consistent conceptual and mathematical infrastructure. This disease-level modeling approach may be of particular value in providing an economic basis to support other clinical guidelines. Copyright © 2013 International Society for Pharmacoeconomics and Outcomes Research (ISPOR). Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.
The willingness of US pediatric dentists to use atraumatic restorative treatment (ART) with their patients: a conjoint analysis

PubMed Central

Kateeb, Elham Talib; Warren, John; Gaeth, Gary; Damiano, Peter; Momany, Elizabeth; Kanellis, Michael J.; Weber-Gasparoni, Karin; Ansley, Timothy

2014-01-01

Objectives The atraumatic restorative treatment (ART) was developed as an affordable, patient-friendly dental caries management procedure that does not need extensive operator training or special skills. The aim of this study was to determine factors that influence the decision to use ART using an innovative marketing research technique known as conjoint analysis. Methods A conjoint survey was completed by 723 members of the American Academy of Pediatric Dentistry. Three factors (age of the child, level of cooperation, type of insurance) were varied across three levels to create nine patient scenarios. The weights that practitioners placed on these factors in decisions to use ART in treating carious lesions were determined by conjoint analysis. Factors such as lesion location, depth, and extension were fixed in the nine clinical scenarios. Results Seven-hundred twenty-three pediatric dentists completed the survey (32 percent). Age of the child was the most important factor in pediatric dentists’ decisions to use ART (46 percent) compared with level of cooperation (41 percent) and type of insurance coverage (11 percent). For the age factor, the age of 2 years had the greatest utility (0.55) compared with age 4 (−0.09) and age 6 (−0.46). For types of insurance coverage, having no insurance (0.124) had the greatest utility compared with having public insurance (−0.119). Conclusions Although insurance coverage was the least important among the factors, being without insurance, being very young, and being uncooperative was the scenario where pediatric dentists most favored ART when making trade offs between different factors using the conjoint design. PMID:24635596
Factors Involved in Juveniles' Decisions about Crime.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Cimler, Edward; Beach, Lee Roy

1981-01-01

Investigated whether delinquency is the result of a rational decision. The Subjective Expected Utility (SEU) model from decision theory was used with male juvenile offenders (N=45) as the model of the decision process. Results showed that the SEU model predicted 62.7 percent of the subjects' decisions. (Author/RC)
Estimating Most Productive Scale Size in Data Envelopment Analysis with Integer Value Data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dwi Sari, Yunita; Angria S, Layla; Efendi, Syahril; Zarlis, Muhammad

2018-01-01

The most productive scale size (MPSS) is a measurement that states how resources should be organized and utilized to achieve optimal results. The most productive scale size (MPSS) can be used as a benchmark for the success of an industry or company in producing goods or services. To estimate the most productive scale size (MPSS), each decision making unit (DMU) should pay attention the level of input-output efficiency, by data envelopment analysis (DEA) method decision making unit (DMU) can identify units used as references that can help to find the cause and solution from inefficiencies can optimize productivity that main advantage in managerial applications. Therefore, data envelopment analysis (DEA) is chosen to estimating most productive scale size (MPSS) that will focus on the input of integer value data with the CCR model and the BCC model. The purpose of this research is to find the best solution for estimating most productive scale size (MPSS) with input of integer value data in data envelopment analysis (DEA) method.
Women's autonomy in health care decision-making in developing countries: a synthesis of the literature.

PubMed

Osamor, Pauline E; Grady, Christine

2016-01-01

Autonomy is considered essential for decision-making in a range of health care situations, from health care seeking and utilization to choosing among treatment options. Evidence suggests that women in developing or low-income countries often have limited autonomy and control over their health decisions. A review of the published empirical literature to identify definitions and methods used to measure women's autonomy in developing countries describe the relationship between women's autonomy and their health care decision-making, and identify sociodemographic factors that influence women's autonomy and decision-making regarding health care was carried out. An integrated literature review using two databases (PubMed and Scopus) was performed. Inclusion criteria were 1) publication in English; 2) original articles; 3) investigations on women's decision-making autonomy for health and health care utilization; and 4) developing country context. Seventeen articles met inclusion criteria, including eleven from South Asia, five from Africa, and one from Central Asia. Most studies used a definition of autonomy that included independence for women to make their own choices and decisions. Study methods differed in that many used study-specific measures, while others used a set of standardized questions from their countries' national health surveys. Most studies examined women's autonomy in the context of reproductive health, while neglecting other types of health care utilized by women. Several studies found that factors, including age, education, and income, affect women's health care decision-making autonomy. Gaps in existing literature regarding women's autonomy and health care utilization include gaps in the areas of health care that have been measured, the influence of sex roles and social support, and the use of qualitative studies to provide context and nuance.
Women’s autonomy in health care decision-making in developing countries: a synthesis of the literature

PubMed Central

Osamor, Pauline E; Grady, Christine

2016-01-01

Autonomy is considered essential for decision-making in a range of health care situations, from health care seeking and utilization to choosing among treatment options. Evidence suggests that women in developing or low-income countries often have limited autonomy and control over their health decisions. A review of the published empirical literature to identify definitions and methods used to measure women’s autonomy in developing countries describe the relationship between women’s autonomy and their health care decision-making, and identify sociodemographic factors that influence women’s autonomy and decision-making regarding health care was carried out. An integrated literature review using two databases (PubMed and Scopus) was performed. Inclusion criteria were 1) publication in English; 2) original articles; 3) investigations on women’s decision-making autonomy for health and health care utilization; and 4) developing country context. Seventeen articles met inclusion criteria, including eleven from South Asia, five from Africa, and one from Central Asia. Most studies used a definition of autonomy that included independence for women to make their own choices and decisions. Study methods differed in that many used study-specific measures, while others used a set of standardized questions from their countries’ national health surveys. Most studies examined women’s autonomy in the context of reproductive health, while neglecting other types of health care utilized by women. Several studies found that factors, including age, education, and income, affect women’s health care decision-making autonomy. Gaps in existing literature regarding women’s autonomy and health care utilization include gaps in the areas of health care that have been measured, the influence of sex roles and social support, and the use of qualitative studies to provide context and nuance. PMID:27354830
Surrogate utility estimation by long-term partners and unfamiliar dyads.

PubMed

Tunney, Richard J; Ziegler, Fenja V

2015-01-01

To what extent are people able to make predictions about other people's preferences and values?We report two experiments that present a novel method assessing some of the basic processes in surrogate decision-making, namely surrogate-utility estimation. In each experiment participants formed dyads who were asked to assign utilities to health related items and commodity items, and to predict their partner's utility judgments for the same items. In experiment one we showed that older adults in long-term relationships were able to accurately predict their partner's wishes. In experiment two we showed that younger adults who were relatively unfamiliar with one another were also able to predict other people's wishes. Crucially we demonstrated that these judgments were accurate even after partialling out each participant's own preferences indicating that in order to make surrogate utility estimations people engage in perspective-taking rather than simple anchoring and adjustment, suggesting that utility estimation is not the cause of inaccuracy in surrogate decision-making. The data and implications are discussed with respect to theories of surrogate decision-making.
Link Performance Analysis and monitoring - A unified approach to divergent requirements

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Thom, G. A.

Link Performance Analysis and real-time monitoring are generally covered by a wide range of equipment. Bit Error Rate testers provide digital link performance measurements but are not useful during real-time data flows. Real-time performance monitors utilize the fixed overhead content but vary widely from format to format. Link quality information is also present from signal reconstruction equipment in the form of receiver AGC, bit synchronizer AGC, and bit synchronizer soft decision level outputs, but no general approach to utilizing this information exists. This paper presents an approach to link tests, real-time data quality monitoring, and results presentation that utilizes a set of general purpose modules in a flexible architectural environment. The system operates over a wide range of bit rates (up to 150 Mbs) and employs several measurement techniques, including P/N code errors or fixed PCM format errors, derived real-time BER from frame sync errors, and Data Quality Analysis derived by counting significant sync status changes. The architecture performs with a minimum of elements in place to permit a phased update of the user's unit in accordance with his needs.
DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Friese, Ryan; Khemka, Bhavesh; Maciejewski, Anthony A

Rising costs of energy consumption and an ongoing effort for increases in computing performance are leading to a significant need for energy-efficient computing. Before systems such as supercomputers, servers, and datacenters can begin operating in an energy-efficient manner, the energy consumption and performance characteristics of the system must be analyzed. In this paper, we provide an analysis framework that will allow a system administrator to investigate the tradeoffs between system energy consumption and utility earned by a system (as a measure of system performance). We model these trade-offs as a bi-objective resource allocation problem. We use a popular multi-objective geneticmore » algorithm to construct Pareto fronts to illustrate how different resource allocations can cause a system to consume significantly different amounts of energy and earn different amounts of utility. We demonstrate our analysis framework using real data collected from online benchmarks, and further provide a method to create larger data sets that exhibit similar heterogeneity characteristics to real data sets. This analysis framework can provide system administrators with insight to make intelligent scheduling decisions based on the energy and utility needs of their systems.« less
Entrepreneurial Decision Making Styles and Learning Strategies Preferences

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Hestand, Yana

2012-01-01

Scope and Method of Study: The scope of this study was the decision making styles and the learning strategies preferences among entrepreneurs. The study utilized a descriptive research design. Internet was utilized as a data collection tool, Participant in the study were 240 entrepreneurs from the Oklahoma state, Tulsa county members of the SBA.…
Utility of Policy Capturing as an Approach to Graduate Admissions Decision Making.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Schmidt, Frank L.; And Others

1978-01-01

The present study examined and evaluated the application of linear policy-capturing models to the real-world decision task of graduate admissions. Utility of the policy-capturing models was great enough to be of practical significance, and least-squares weights showed no predictive advantage over equal weights. (Author/CTM)
Smoking as a decision among pregnant and non-pregnant women.

PubMed

Ortendahl, Monica

2006-10-01

The purpose was to examine values and beliefs related to smoking, and to test the validity of a decision model based on the product of the value of smoking-related events and states, and the belief that these will occur, (in decision research labeled Expected Utility, or EU). Over a two-week period eighty women, divided into subgroups consisting of pregnant vs. non-pregnant women, and those intending vs. those not intending to quit smoking, performed evaluations of values and beliefs for the two conditions of quitting and not quitting smoking. For both pregnant and non-pregnant women expected utility of smoking was negative. Of all the four groups pregnant women not intending to quit smoking estimated the expected utility of smoking as least negative. A decision analytic approach is applicable to describe the addictive behavior of smoking. Values as well as beliefs about smoking should be stressed in smoking cessation programs, especially among pregnant women.
Hidden flows and waste processing--an analysis of illustrative futures.

PubMed

Schiller, F; Raffield, T; Angus, A; Herben, M; Young, P J; Longhurst, P J; Pollard, S J T

2010-12-14

An existing materials flow model is adapted (using Excel and AMBER model platforms) to account for waste and hidden material flows within a domestic environment. Supported by national waste data, the implications of legislative change, domestic resource depletion and waste technology advances are explored. The revised methodology offers additional functionality for economic parameters that influence waste generation and disposal. We explore this accounting system under hypothetical future waste and resource management scenarios, illustrating the utility of the model. A sensitivity analysis confirms that imports, domestic extraction and their associated hidden flows impact mostly on waste generation. The model offers enhanced utility for policy and decision makers with regard to economic mass balance and strategic waste flows, and may promote further discussion about waste technology choice in the context of reducing carbon budgets.

Combining statistical inference and decisions in ecology.

PubMed

Williams, Perry J; Hooten, Mevin B

2016-09-01

Statistical decision theory (SDT) is a sub-field of decision theory that formally incorporates statistical investigation into a decision-theoretic framework to account for uncertainties in a decision problem. SDT provides a unifying analysis of three types of information: statistical results from a data set, knowledge of the consequences of potential choices (i.e., loss), and prior beliefs about a system. SDT links the theoretical development of a large body of statistical methods, including point estimation, hypothesis testing, and confidence interval estimation. The theory and application of SDT have mainly been developed and published in the fields of mathematics, statistics, operations research, and other decision sciences, but have had limited exposure in ecology. Thus, we provide an introduction to SDT for ecologists and describe its utility for linking the conventionally separate tasks of statistical investigation and decision making in a single framework. We describe the basic framework of both Bayesian and frequentist SDT, its traditional use in statistics, and discuss its application to decision problems that occur in ecology. We demonstrate SDT with two types of decisions: Bayesian point estimation and an applied management problem of selecting a prescribed fire rotation for managing a grassland bird species. Central to SDT, and decision theory in general, are loss functions. Thus, we also provide basic guidance and references for constructing loss functions for an SDT problem. © 2016 by the Ecological Society of America.
Development of an instrument to understand the child protective services decision-making process, with a focus on placement decisions.

PubMed

Dettlaff, Alan J; Christopher Graham, J; Holzman, Jesse; Baumann, Donald J; Fluke, John D

2015-11-01

When children come to the attention of the child welfare system, they become involved in a decision-making process in which decisions are made that have a significant effect on their future and well-being. The decision to remove children from their families is particularly complex; yet surprisingly little is understood about this decision-making process. This paper presents the results of a study to develop an instrument to explore, at the caseworker level, the context of the removal decision, with the objective of understanding the influence of the individual and organizational factors on this decision, drawing from the Decision Making Ecology as the underlying rationale for obtaining the measures. The instrument was based on the development of decision-making scales used in prior decision-making studies and administered to child protection caseworkers in several states. Analyses included reliability analyses, principal components analyses, and inter-correlations among the resulting scales. For one scale regarding removal decisions, a principal components analysis resulted in the extraction of two components, jointly identified as caseworkers' decision-making orientation, described as (1) an internal reference to decision-making and (2) an external reference to decision-making. Reliability analyses demonstrated acceptable to high internal consistency for 9 of the 11 scales. Full details of the reliability analyses, principal components analyses, and inter-correlations among the seven scales are discussed, along with implications for practice and the utility of this instrument to support the understanding of decision-making in child welfare. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
Computational Support for Technology- Investment Decisions

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Adumitroaie, Virgil; Hua, Hook; Lincoln, William; Block, Gary; Mrozinski, Joseph; Shelton, Kacie; Weisbin, Charles; Elfes, Alberto; Smith, Jeffrey

2007-01-01

Strategic Assessment of Risk and Technology (START) is a user-friendly computer program that assists human managers in making decisions regarding research-and-development investment portfolios in the presence of uncertainties and of non-technological constraints that include budgetary and time limits, restrictions related to infrastructure, and programmatic and institutional priorities. START facilitates quantitative analysis of technologies, capabilities, missions, scenarios and programs, and thereby enables the selection and scheduling of value-optimal development efforts. START incorporates features that, variously, perform or support a unique combination of functions, most of which are not systematically performed or supported by prior decision- support software. These functions include the following: Optimal portfolio selection using an expected-utility-based assessment of capabilities and technologies; Temporal investment recommendations; Distinctions between enhancing and enabling capabilities; Analysis of partial funding for enhancing capabilities; and Sensitivity and uncertainty analysis. START can run on almost any computing hardware, within Linux and related operating systems that include Mac OS X versions 10.3 and later, and can run in Windows under the Cygwin environment. START can be distributed in binary code form. START calls, as external libraries, several open-source software packages. Output is in Excel (.xls) file format.
A behavioural and neural evaluation of prospective decision-making under risk

PubMed Central

Symmonds, Mkael; Bossaerts, Peter; Dolan, Raymond J.

2010-01-01

Making the best choice when faced with a chain of decisions requires a person to judge both anticipated outcomes and future actions. Although economic decision-making models account for both risk and reward in single choice contexts there is a dearth of similar knowledge about sequential choice. Classical utility-based models assume that decision-makers select and follow an optimal pre-determined strategy, irrespective of the particular order in which options are presented. An alternative model involves continuously re-evaluating decision utilities, without prescribing a specific future set of choices. Here, using behavioral and functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI) data, we studied human subjects in a sequential choice task and use these data to compare alternative decision models of valuation and strategy selection. We provide evidence that subjects adopt a model of re-evaluating decision utilities, where available strategies are continuously updated and combined in assessing action values. We validate this model by using simultaneously-acquired fMRI data to show that sequential choice evokes a pattern of neural response consistent with a tracking of anticipated distribution of future reward, as expected in such a model. Thus, brain activity evoked at each decision point reflects the expected mean, variance and skewness of possible payoffs, consistent with the idea that sequential choice evokes a prospective evaluation of both available strategies and possible outcomes. PMID:20980595
A behavioral and neural evaluation of prospective decision-making under risk.

PubMed

Symmonds, Mkael; Bossaerts, Peter; Dolan, Raymond J

2010-10-27

Making the best choice when faced with a chain of decisions requires a person to judge both anticipated outcomes and future actions. Although economic decision-making models account for both risk and reward in single-choice contexts, there is a dearth of similar knowledge about sequential choice. Classical utility-based models assume that decision-makers select and follow an optimal predetermined strategy, regardless of the particular order in which options are presented. An alternative model involves continuously reevaluating decision utilities, without prescribing a specific future set of choices. Here, using behavioral and functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI) data, we studied human subjects in a sequential choice task and use these data to compare alternative decision models of valuation and strategy selection. We provide evidence that subjects adopt a model of reevaluating decision utilities, in which available strategies are continuously updated and combined in assessing action values. We validate this model by using simultaneously acquired fMRI data to show that sequential choice evokes a pattern of neural response consistent with a tracking of anticipated distribution of future reward, as expected in such a model. Thus, brain activity evoked at each decision point reflects the expected mean, variance, and skewness of possible payoffs, consistent with the idea that sequential choice evokes a prospective evaluation of both available strategies and possible outcomes.
Data Analysis and Data-Driven Decision-Making Strategies Implemented by Elementary Teachers in Selected Exited Program Improvement Safe Harbor Schools in Southern California

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Senger, Karen

2012-01-01

Purpose: The purposes of this study were to investigate and describe how elementary teachers in exited Program Improvement-Safe Harbor schools acquire student achievement data through assessments, the strategies and reflections utilized to make sense of the data to improve student achievement, ensure curriculum and instructional goals are aligned,…
Information transfer and shared mental models for decision making

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Orasanu, Judith; Fischer, Ute

1991-01-01

A study to determine how communication influences flight crew performance is presented. This analysis focuses on the content of communication, principally asking what an utterance does from a cognitive, problem solving viewpoint. Two questions are addressed in this study: how is language utilized to manage problems in the cockpit, and are there differences between two- and three-member crews in their communication and problem solving strategies?
An Analysis of the Space Transportation System Launch Rate Capability Utilizing Q-GERT Simulation Techniques.

DTIC Science & Technology

1982-12-01

VAPE was modeled to determine this launch rate and to determine the processing times for an Orbiter at VAPe . This informa- 21 tion was then used in the...year (node 79 and activity ?1). ETa are then selected to be sent to either KSC or VAPE (node 80). This decision is made (using Ur 8) on the basis of
Clinical utility of gene expression profiling data for clinical decision-making regarding adjuvant therapy in early stage, node-negative breast cancer: a case report.

PubMed

Schuster, Steven R; Pockaj, Barbara A; Bothe, Mary R; David, Paru S; Northfelt, Donald W

2012-09-10

Breast cancer is the most common malignancy among women in the United States with the second highest incidence of cancer-related death following lung cancer. The decision-making process regarding adjuvant therapy is a time intensive dialogue between the patient and her oncologist. There are multiple tools that help individualize the treatment options for a patient. Population-based analysis with Adjuvant! Online and genomic profiling with Oncotype DX are two commonly used tools in patients with early stage, node-negative breast cancer. This case report illustrates a situation in which the population-based prognostic and predictive information differed dramatically from that obtained from genomic profiling and affected the patient's decision. In light of this case, we discuss the benefits and limitations of these tools.
Should "standard gamble" and "'time trade off" utility measurement be used more in mental health research?

PubMed

Flood, Chris

2010-06-01

This review and discussion paper demonstrates that utility and preference measurement in mental health research is increasing. However there is still a general reluctance around using the methods due to methodological challenges and concerns around the capacity of users to understand utility methods during the research process. This paper sets out to describe and review some of the previously documented difficulties of using utility measurements in mental health services research and to highlight where they have been used successfully as measures. Additionally the paper aims to discuss a means of improving the methods used to capture service user utility and preference measurement and why decision making would be better informed as a result. International literature on utility measurement is reviewed, specifically examining the use of standard gamble and time trade off methods in mental health. Utility measurement in mental health is increasing though as the review demonstrates, concerns still exist over its application. A number of methods can be used to improve the approach overall and these are discussed as well as specific areas worthy of utility measurement including 'disutility' of admission, medication and medication side effects. Overall this paper argues that it is necessary to persist with efforts to conduct utility measurement calculation albeit with a critical eye on the methods in an attempt to ensure improvements are continually made. Utility and preference scores may be limited in that they only provide a rough score but they are defended as a means of providing some form of strength of preference for health states. The review is limited to English only texts. The debate on whether to use standard gamble and time trade off has implications for health services resource allocations, decision making, health economics research, policy making and health services research generally involving psychiatric service users. The paper argues that the absence of utility measurement in mental health runs the risk of mental health being disadvantaged in decisions around resource allocation. Institutions involved in decision making like the United Kingdom's National Institute for Health and Clinical Excellence, would be better served in their decision making and calculation of Quality Adjusted Life Years if more utility measurement in psychiatric research was carried out. Other arguments for using utility measurement include the desirability of using utility measurement to elicit a patient dimension of risk. Future utility research should aim for better involvement of service users in the design stage, the changing of time frames offered to users in health state scenarios used, a greater need for comparative work of utilities scoring across illness and between standard gamble and time trade off and more staff training in the use of utility methodology with mental health service users.
The Self in Decision Making and Decision Implementation.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Beach, Lee Roy; Mitchell, Terence R.

Since the early 1950's the principal prescriptive model in the psychological study of decision making has been maximization of Subjective Expected Utility (SEU). This SEU maximization has come to be regarded as a description of how people go about making decisions. However, while observed decision processes sometimes resemble the SEU model,…
Choice Experiments to Quantify Preferences for Health and Healthcare: State of the Practice.

PubMed

Mühlbacher, Axel; Johnson, F Reed

2016-06-01

Stated-preference methods increasingly are used to quantify preferences in health economics, health technology assessment, benefit-risk analysis and health services research. The objective of stated-preference studies is to acquire information about trade-off preferences among treatment outcomes, prioritization of clinical decision criteria, likely uptake or adherence to healthcare products and acceptability of healthcare services or policies. A widely accepted approach to eliciting preferences is discrete-choice experiments. Patient, physician, insurant or general-public respondents choose among constructed, experimentally controlled alternatives described by decision-relevant features or attributes. Attributes can represent complete health states, sets of treatment outcomes or characteristics of a healthcare system. The observed pattern of choice reveals how different respondents or groups of respondents implicitly weigh, value and assess different characteristics of treatments, products or services. An important advantage of choice experiments is their foundation in microeconomic utility theory. This conceptual framework provides tests of internal validity, guidance for statistical analysis of latent preference structures, and testable behavioural hypotheses. Choice experiments require expertise in survey-research methods, random-utility theory, experimental design and advanced statistical analysis. This paper should be understood as an introduction to setting up a basic experiment rather than an exhaustive critique of the latest findings and procedures. Where appropriate, we have identified topics of active research where a broad consensus has not yet been established.
Clinical Utility of Risk Models to Refer Patients with Adnexal Masses to Specialized Oncology Care: Multicenter External Validation Using Decision Curve Analysis.

PubMed

Wynants, Laure; Timmerman, Dirk; Verbakel, Jan Y; Testa, Antonia; Savelli, Luca; Fischerova, Daniela; Franchi, Dorella; Van Holsbeke, Caroline; Epstein, Elisabeth; Froyman, Wouter; Guerriero, Stefano; Rossi, Alberto; Fruscio, Robert; Leone, Francesco Pg; Bourne, Tom; Valentin, Lil; Van Calster, Ben

2017-09-01

Purpose: To evaluate the utility of preoperative diagnostic models for ovarian cancer based on ultrasound and/or biomarkers for referring patients to specialized oncology care. The investigated models were RMI, ROMA, and 3 models from the International Ovarian Tumor Analysis (IOTA) group [LR2, ADNEX, and the Simple Rules risk score (SRRisk)]. Experimental Design: A secondary analysis of prospectively collected data from 2 cross-sectional cohort studies was performed to externally validate diagnostic models. A total of 2,763 patients (2,403 in dataset 1 and 360 in dataset 2) from 18 centers (11 oncology centers and 7 nononcology hospitals) in 6 countries participated. Excised tissue was histologically classified as benign or malignant. The clinical utility of the preoperative diagnostic models was assessed with net benefit (NB) at a range of risk thresholds (5%-50% risk of malignancy) to refer patients to specialized oncology care. We visualized results with decision curves and generated bootstrap confidence intervals. Results: The prevalence of malignancy was 41% in dataset 1 and 40% in dataset 2. For thresholds up to 10% to 15%, RMI and ROMA had a lower NB than referring all patients. SRRisks and ADNEX demonstrated the highest NB. At a threshold of 20%, the NBs of ADNEX, SRrisks, and RMI were 0.348, 0.350, and 0.270, respectively. Results by menopausal status and type of center (oncology vs. nononcology) were similar. Conclusions: All tested IOTA methods, especially ADNEX and SRRisks, are clinically more useful than RMI and ROMA to select patients with adnexal masses for specialized oncology care. Clin Cancer Res; 23(17); 5082-90. ©2017 AACR . ©2017 American Association for Cancer Research.
COST-UTILITY ANALYSIS OF PRIMARY PROPHYLAXIS, COMPARED WITH ON-DEMAND TREATMENT, FOR PATIENTS WITH SEVERE HEMOPHILIA TYPE A IN COLOMBIA.

PubMed

Castro Jaramillo, Héctor Eduardo; Moreno Viscaya, Mabel; Mejia, Aurelio E

2016-01-01

This article presents a cost-utility analysis from the Colombian health system perspective comparing primary prophylaxis to on-demand treatment using exogenous clotting factor VIII (FVIII) for patients with severe hemophilia type A. We developed a Markov model to estimate expected costs and outcomes (measured as quality-adjusted life-years, QALYs) for each strategy. Transition probabilities were estimated using published studies; utility weights were obtained from a sample of Colombian patients with hemophilia and costs were gathered using local data. Both deterministic and probabilistic sensitivity analysis were performed to assess the robustness of results. The additional cost per QALY gained of primary prophylaxis compared with on-demand treatment was 105,081,022 Colombian pesos (COP) (55,204 USD), and thus not considered cost-effective according to a threshold of up to three times the current Colombian gross domestic product (GDP) per-capita. When primary prophylaxis was provided throughout life using recombinant FVIII (rFVIII), which is much costlier than FVIII, the additional cost per QALY gained reached 174,159,553 COP (91,494 USD). using a decision rule of up to three times the Colombian GDP per capita, primary prophylaxis (with either FVIII or rFVIII) would not be considered as cost-effective in this country. However, a final decision on providing or preventing patients from primary prophylaxis as a gold standard of care for severe hemophilia type A should also consider broader criteria than the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio results itself. Only a price reduction of exogenous FVIII of 50 percent or more would make primary prophylaxis cost-effective in this context.
The impact of a computerised test of attention and activity (QbTest) on diagnostic decision-making in children and young people with suspected attention deficit hyperactivity disorder: single-blind randomised controlled trial.

PubMed

Hollis, Chris; Hall, Charlotte L; Guo, Boliang; James, Marilyn; Boadu, Janet; Groom, Madeleine J; Brown, Nikki; Kaylor-Hughes, Catherine; Moldavsky, Maria; Valentine, Althea Z; Walker, Gemma M; Daley, David; Sayal, Kapil; Morriss, Richard

2018-04-26

Diagnosis of attention deficit hyperactivity disorder (ADHD) relies on subjective methods which can lead to diagnostic uncertainty and delay. This trial evaluated the impact of providing a computerised test of attention and activity (QbTest) report on the speed and accuracy of diagnostic decision-making in children with suspected ADHD. Randomised, parallel, single-blind controlled trial in mental health and community paediatric clinics in England. Participants were 6-17 years-old and referred for ADHD diagnostic assessment; all underwent assessment-as-usual, plus QbTest. Participants and their clinician were randomised to either receive the QbTest report immediately (QbOpen group) or the report was withheld (QbBlind group). The primary outcome was number of consultations until a diagnostic decision confirming/excluding ADHD within 6-months from baseline. Health economic cost-effectiveness and cost utility analysis was conducted. Assessing QbTest Utility in ADHD: A Randomised Controlled Trial was registered at ClinicalTrials.gov (https://clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/show/NCT02209116). One hundred and thirty-two participants were randomised to QbOpen group (123 analysed) and 135 to QbBlind group (127 analysed). Clinicians with access to the QbTest report (QbOpen) were more likely to reach a diagnostic decision about ADHD (hazard ratio 1.44, 95% CI 1.04-2.01). At 6-months, 76% of those with a QbTest report had received a diagnostic decision, compared with 50% without. QbTest reduced appointment length by 15% (time ratio 0.85, 95% CI 0.77-0.93), increased clinicians' confidence in their diagnostic decisions (odds ratio 1.77, 95% CI 1.09-2.89) and doubled the likelihood of excluding ADHD. There was no difference in diagnostic accuracy. Health economic analysis showed a position of strict dominance; however, cost savings were small suggesting that the impact of providing the QbTest report within this trial can best be viewed as 'cost neutral'. QbTest may increase the efficiency of ADHD assessment pathway allowing greater patient throughput with clinicians reaching diagnostic decisions faster without compromising diagnostic accuracy. © 2018 The Authors. Journal of Child Psychology and Psychiatry published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd on behalf of Association for Child and Adolescent Mental Health.
Making Career Decisions--A Sequential Elimination Approach.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Gati, Itamar

1986-01-01

Presents a model for career decision making based on the sequential elimination of occupational alternatives, an adaptation for career decisions of Tversky's (1972) elimination-by-aspects theory of choice. The expected utility approach is reviewed as a representative compensatory model for career decisions. Advantages, disadvantages, and…
Optimal joint detection and estimation that maximizes ROC-type curves

PubMed Central

Wunderlich, Adam; Goossens, Bart; Abbey, Craig K.

2017-01-01

Combined detection-estimation tasks are frequently encountered in medical imaging. Optimal methods for joint detection and estimation are of interest because they provide upper bounds on observer performance, and can potentially be utilized for imaging system optimization, evaluation of observer efficiency, and development of image formation algorithms. We present a unified Bayesian framework for decision rules that maximize receiver operating characteristic (ROC)-type summary curves, including ROC, localization ROC (LROC), estimation ROC (EROC), free-response ROC (FROC), alternative free-response ROC (AFROC), and exponentially-transformed FROC (EFROC) curves, succinctly summarizing previous results. The approach relies on an interpretation of ROC-type summary curves as plots of an expected utility versus an expected disutility (or penalty) for signal-present decisions. We propose a general utility structure that is flexible enough to encompass many ROC variants and yet sufficiently constrained to allow derivation of a linear expected utility equation that is similar to that for simple binary detection. We illustrate our theory with an example comparing decision strategies for joint detection-estimation of a known signal with unknown amplitude. In addition, building on insights from our utility framework, we propose new ROC-type summary curves and associated optimal decision rules for joint detection-estimation tasks with an unknown, potentially-multiple, number of signals in each observation. PMID:27093544
Optimal Joint Detection and Estimation That Maximizes ROC-Type Curves.

PubMed

Wunderlich, Adam; Goossens, Bart; Abbey, Craig K

2016-09-01

Combined detection-estimation tasks are frequently encountered in medical imaging. Optimal methods for joint detection and estimation are of interest because they provide upper bounds on observer performance, and can potentially be utilized for imaging system optimization, evaluation of observer efficiency, and development of image formation algorithms. We present a unified Bayesian framework for decision rules that maximize receiver operating characteristic (ROC)-type summary curves, including ROC, localization ROC (LROC), estimation ROC (EROC), free-response ROC (FROC), alternative free-response ROC (AFROC), and exponentially-transformed FROC (EFROC) curves, succinctly summarizing previous results. The approach relies on an interpretation of ROC-type summary curves as plots of an expected utility versus an expected disutility (or penalty) for signal-present decisions. We propose a general utility structure that is flexible enough to encompass many ROC variants and yet sufficiently constrained to allow derivation of a linear expected utility equation that is similar to that for simple binary detection. We illustrate our theory with an example comparing decision strategies for joint detection-estimation of a known signal with unknown amplitude. In addition, building on insights from our utility framework, we propose new ROC-type summary curves and associated optimal decision rules for joint detection-estimation tasks with an unknown, potentially-multiple, number of signals in each observation.
A Predictive Algorithm to Detect Opioid Use Disorder: What Is the Utility in a Primary Care Setting?

PubMed

Lee, Chee; Sharma, Maneesh; Kantorovich, Svetlana; Brenton, Ashley

2018-01-01

The purpose of this study was to determine the clinical utility of an algorithm-based decision tool designed to assess risk associated with opioid use in the primary care setting. A prospective, longitudinal study was conducted to assess the utility of precision medicine testing in 1822 patients across 18 family medicine/primary care clinics in the United States. Using the profile, patients were categorized into low, moderate, and high risk for opioid use. Physicians who ordered testing were asked to complete patient evaluations and document their actions, decisions, and perceptions regarding the utility of the precision medicine tests. Approximately 47% of primary care physicians surveyed used the profile to guide clinical decision-making. These physicians rated the benefit of the profile on patient care an average of 3.6 on a 5-point scale (1 indicating no benefit and 5 indicating significant benefit). Eighty-eight percent of all clinicians surveyed felt the test exhibited some benefit to their patient care. The most frequent utilization for the profile was to guide a change in opioid prescribed. Physicians reported greater benefit of profile utilization for minority patients. Patients whose treatment was guided by the profile had pain levels that were reduced, on average, 2.7 levels on the numeric rating scale. The profile provided primary care physicians with a useful tool to stratify the risk of opioid use disorder and was rated as beneficial for decision-making and patient improvement by the majority of physicians surveyed. Physicians reported the profile resulted in greater clinical improvement for minorities, highlighting the objective use of this profile to guide judicial use of opioids in high-risk patients. Significantly, when physicians used the profile to guide treatment decisions, patient-reported pain was greatly reduced.
Approaches to Aggregation and Decision Making-A Health Economics Approach: An ISPOR Special Task Force Report [5].

PubMed

Phelps, Charles E; Lakdawalla, Darius N; Basu, Anirban; Drummond, Michael F; Towse, Adrian; Danzon, Patricia M

2018-02-01

The fifth section of our Special Task Force report identifies and discusses two aggregation issues: 1) aggregation of cost and benefit information across individuals to a population level for benefit plan decision making and 2) combining multiple elements of value into a single value metric for individuals. First, we argue that additional elements could be included in measures of value, but such elements have not generally been included in measures of quality-adjusted life-years. For example, we describe a recently developed extended cost-effectiveness analysis (ECEA) that provides a good example of how to use a broader concept of utility. ECEA adds two features-measures of financial risk protection and income distributional consequences. We then discuss a further option for expanding this approach-augmented CEA, which can introduce many value measures. Neither of these approaches, however, provide a comprehensive measure of value. To resolve this issue, we review a technique called multicriteria decision analysis that can provide a comprehensive measure of value. We then discuss budget-setting and prioritization using multicriteria decision analysis, issues not yet fully resolved. Next, we discuss deliberative processes, which represent another important approach for population- or plan-level decisions used by many health technology assessment bodies. These use quantitative information on CEA and other elements, but the group decisions are reached by a deliberative voting process. Finally, we briefly discuss the use of stated preference methods for developing "hedonic" value frameworks, and conclude with some recommendations in this area. Copyright © 2018 International Society for Pharmacoeconomics and Outcomes Research (ISPOR). Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

A new intuitionism: Meaning, memory, and development in Fuzzy-Trace Theory

PubMed Central

Reyna, Valerie F.

2014-01-01

Combining meaning, memory, and development, the perennially popular topic of intuition can be approached in a new way. Fuzzy-trace theory integrates these topics by distinguishing between meaning-based gist representations, which support fuzzy (yet advanced) intuition, and superficial verbatim representations of information, which support precise analysis. Here, I review the counterintuitive findings that led to the development of the theory and its most recent extensions to the neuroscience of risky decision making. These findings include memory interference (worse verbatim memory is associated with better reasoning); nonnumerical framing (framing effects increase when numbers are deleted from decision problems); developmental decreases in gray matter and increases in brain connectivity; developmental reversals in memory, judgment, and decision making (heuristics and biases based on gist increase from childhood to adulthood, challenging conceptions of rationality); and selective attention effects that provide critical tests comparing fuzzy-trace theory, expected utility theory, and its variants (e.g., prospect theory). Surprising implications for judgment and decision making in real life are also discussed, notably, that adaptive decision making relies mainly on gist-based intuition in law, medicine, and public health. PMID:25530822
Leveraging human decision making through the optimal management of centralized resources

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hyden, Paul; McGrath, Richard G.

2016-05-01

Combining results from mixed integer optimization, stochastic modeling and queuing theory, we will advance the interdisciplinary problem of efficiently and effectively allocating centrally managed resources. Academia currently fails to address this, as the esoteric demands of each of these large research areas limits work across traditional boundaries. The commercial space does not currently address these challenges due to the absence of a profit metric. By constructing algorithms that explicitly use inputs across boundaries, we are able to incorporate the advantages of using human decision makers. Key improvements in the underlying algorithms are made possible by aligning decision maker goals with the feedback loops introduced between the core optimization step and the modeling of the overall stochastic process of supply and demand. A key observation is that human decision-makers must be explicitly included in the analysis for these approaches to be ultimately successful. Transformative access gives warfighters and mission owners greater understanding of global needs and allows for relationships to guide optimal resource allocation decisions. Mastery of demand processes and optimization bottlenecks reveals long term maximum marginal utility gaps in capabilities.
A new intuitionism: Meaning, memory, and development in Fuzzy-Trace Theory.

PubMed

Reyna, Valerie F

2012-05-01

Combining meaning, memory, and development, the perennially popular topic of intuition can be approached in a new way. Fuzzy-trace theory integrates these topics by distinguishing between meaning-based gist representations, which support fuzzy (yet advanced) intuition, and superficial verbatim representations of information, which support precise analysis. Here, I review the counterintuitive findings that led to the development of the theory and its most recent extensions to the neuroscience of risky decision making. These findings include memory interference (worse verbatim memory is associated with better reasoning); nonnumerical framing (framing effects increase when numbers are deleted from decision problems); developmental decreases in gray matter and increases in brain connectivity; developmental reversals in memory, judgment, and decision making (heuristics and biases based on gist increase from childhood to adulthood, challenging conceptions of rationality); and selective attention effects that provide critical tests comparing fuzzy-trace theory, expected utility theory, and its variants (e.g., prospect theory). Surprising implications for judgment and decision making in real life are also discussed, notably, that adaptive decision making relies mainly on gist-based intuition in law, medicine, and public health.
Decision Analysis Tools for Volcano Observatories

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hincks, T. H.; Aspinall, W.; Woo, G.

2005-12-01

Staff at volcano observatories are predominantly engaged in scientific activities related to volcano monitoring and instrumentation, data acquisition and analysis. Accordingly, the academic education and professional training of observatory staff tend to focus on these scientific functions. From time to time, however, staff may be called upon to provide decision support to government officials responsible for civil protection. Recognizing that Earth scientists may have limited technical familiarity with formal decision analysis methods, specialist software tools that assist decision support in a crisis should be welcome. A review is given of two software tools that have been under development recently. The first is for probabilistic risk assessment of human and economic loss from volcanic eruptions, and is of practical use in short and medium-term risk-informed planning of exclusion zones, post-disaster response, etc. A multiple branch event-tree architecture for the software, together with a formalism for ascribing probabilities to branches, have been developed within the context of the European Community EXPLORIS project. The second software tool utilizes the principles of the Bayesian Belief Network (BBN) for evidence-based assessment of volcanic state and probabilistic threat evaluation. This is of practical application in short-term volcano hazard forecasting and real-time crisis management, including the difficult challenge of deciding when an eruption is over. An open-source BBN library is the software foundation for this tool, which is capable of combining synoptically different strands of observational data from diverse monitoring sources. A conceptual vision is presented of the practical deployment of these decision analysis tools in a future volcano observatory environment. Summary retrospective analyses are given of previous volcanic crises to illustrate the hazard and risk insights gained from use of these tools.
Interactions between energy efficiency and emission trading under the 1990 Clean Air Act Amendments

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Hillsman, E.L.; Alvic, D.R.

1994-08-01

The 1990 Clean Air Act Amendments affect electric utilities in numerous ways. The feature that probably has received the greatest attention is the provision to let utilities trade emissions of sulfur dioxide (SO{sub 2}), while at the same time requiring them to reduce S0{sub 2} emissions in 2000 by an aggregate 43%. The emission trading system was welcomed by many as a way of reducing the cost of reducing emissions, by providing greater flexibility than past approaches. This report examines some of the potential interactions between trading emissions and increasing end-use energy efficiency. The analysis focuses on emission trading inmore » the second phase of the trading program, which begins in 2000. The aggregate effects, calculated by an emission compliance and trading model, turn out to be rather small. Aggressive improvement of end-use efficiency by all utilities might reduce allowance prices by $22/ton (1990 dollars), which is small compared to the reduction that has occurred in the estimates of future allowance prices and when compared to the roughly $400/ton price we estimate as a base case. However, the changes in the allowance market that result are large enough to affect some compliance decisions. If utilities in only a few states improve end-use efficiency aggressively, their actions may not have a large effect on the price of an allowance, but they could alter the demand for allowances and thereby the compliance decisions of utilities in other states. The analysis shows how improving electricity end-use efficiency in some states can cause smaller emission reductions in other states, relative to what would have happened without the improvements. Such a result, while not surprising given the theory behind the emission trading system, is upsetting to people who view emissions, environmental protection, and energy efficiency in moral rather than strictly economic terms.« less
American Recovery and Reinvestment Act of 2009: Final Report on Customer Acceptance, Retention, and Response to Time-Based Rates from Consumer Behavior Studies

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Cappers, Peter; Scheer, Rich

Time-based rate programs, enabled by utility investments in advanced metering infrastructure (AMI), are increasingly being considered by utilities as tools to reduce peak demand and enable customers to better manage consumption and costs. Under the Smart Grid Investment Grant Program (SGIG), the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) partnered with several electric utilities to conduct consumer behavior studies (CBS). The goals involved applying randomized and controlled experimental designs for estimating customer responses more precisely and credibly to advance understanding of time-based rates and customer systems, and provide new information for improving program designs, implementation strategies, and evaluations. The intent was tomore » produce more robust and credible analysis of impacts, costs, benefits, and lessons learned and assist utility and regulatory decision makers in evaluating investment opportunities involving time-based rates.« less
Comparison between the Health Belief Model and Subjective Expected Utility Theory: predicting incontinence prevention behaviour in post-partum women.

PubMed

Dolman, M; Chase, J

1996-08-01

A small-scale study was undertaken to test the relative predictive power of the Health Belief Model and Subjective Expected Utility Theory for the uptake of a behaviour (pelvic floor exercises) to reduce post-partum urinary incontinence in primigravida females. A structured questionnaire was used to gather data relevant to both models from a sample antenatal and postnatal primigravida women. Questions examined the perceived probability of becoming incontinent, the perceived (dis)utility of incontinence, the perceived probability of pelvic floor exercises preventing future urinary incontinence, the costs and benefits of performing pelvic floor exercises and sources of information and knowledge about incontinence. Multiple regression analysis focused on whether or not respondents intended to perform pelvic floor exercises and the factors influencing their decisions. Aggregated data were analysed to compare the Health Belief Model and Subjective Expected Utility Theory directly.
‘Someday it will be the norm’: physician perspectives on the utility of genome sequencing for patient care in the MedSeq Project

PubMed Central

Vassy, Jason L; Christensen, Kurt D; Slashinski, Melody J; Lautenbach, Denise M; Raghavan, Sridharan; Robinson, Jill Oliver; Blumenthal-Barby, Jennifer; Feuerman, Lindsay Zausmer; Lehmann, Lisa Soleymani; Murray, Michael F; Green, Robert C; McGuire, Amy L

2015-01-01

Aim To describe practicing physicians’ perceived clinical utility of genome sequencing. Materials & methods We conducted a mixed-methods analysis of data from 18 primary care physicians and cardiologists in a study of the clinical integration of whole-genome sequencing. Physicians underwent brief genomics continuing medical education before completing surveys and semi-structured interviews. Results Physicians described sequencing as currently lacking clinical utility because of its uncertain interpretation and limited impact on clinical decision-making, but they expressed the idea that its clinical integration was inevitable. Potential clinical uses for sequencing included complementing other clinical information, risk stratification, motivating patient behavior change and pharmacogenetics. Conclusion Physicians given genomics continuing medical education use the language of both evidence-based and personalized medicine in describing the utility of genome-wide testing in patient care. PMID:25642274
Ground subsidence information as a valuable layer in GIS analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Murdzek, Radosław; Malik, Hubert; Leśniak, Andrzej

2018-04-01

Among the technologies used to improve functioning of local governments the geographic information systems (GIS) are widely used. GIS tools allow to simultaneously integrate spatial data resources, analyse them, process and use them to make strategic decisions. Nowadays GIS analysis is widely used in spatial planning or environmental protection. In these applications a number of spatial information are utilized, but rarely it is an information about environmental hazards. This paper includes information about ground subsidence that occurred in USCB mining area into GIS analysis. Monitoring of this phenomenon can be carried out using the radar differential interferometry (DInSAR) method.
Utilities and the Issue of Fairness in a Decision Theoretic Model for Selection

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Sawyer, Richard L.; And Others

1976-01-01

This article examines some of the values that might be considered in a selection situation within the context of a decision theoretic model also described here. Several alternate expressions of fair selection are suggested in the form of utility statements in which these values can be understood and compared. (Author/DEP)
Expected utility violations evolve under status-based selection mechanisms.

PubMed

Dickson, Eric S

2008-10-07

The expected utility theory of decision making under uncertainty, a cornerstone of modern economics, assumes that humans linearly weight "utilities" for different possible outcomes by the probabilities with which these outcomes occur. Despite the theory's intuitive appeal, both from normative and from evolutionary perspectives, many experiments demonstrate systematic, though poorly understood, patterns of deviation from EU predictions. This paper offers a novel theoretical account of such patterns of deviation by demonstrating that EU violations can emerge from evolutionary selection when individual "status" affects inclusive fitness. In humans, battles for resources and social standing involve high-stakes decision making, and assortative mating ensures that status matters for fitness outcomes. The paper therefore proposes grounding the study of decision making under uncertainty in an evolutionary game-theoretic framework.
Barriers and Promoters to Participation in the Era of Shared Treatment Decision-Making.

PubMed

McCarter, Sarah P; Tariman, Joseph D; Spawn, Nadia; Mehmeti, Enisa; Bishop-Royse, Jessica; Garcia, Ima; Hartle, Lisa; Szubski, Katharine

2016-10-01

This study aimed to identify the barriers and promoters for participation in cancer treatment decision in the era of shared decision-making (SDM) process. A qualitative design was utilized. Nineteen nurses and 11 nurse practitioners from oncology inpatient and outpatient settings participated in semi-structured interviews. Data were analyzed using directed content analysis. The findings include practice barrier, patient barrier, institutional policy barrier, professional barrier, scope of practice barrier, insurance coverage barrier, and administrative barrier. Multidisciplinary team approach, having a nursing voice during SDM, high level of knowledge of the disease and treatment, and personal valuation of SDM participation were perceived as promoters. Oncology nurses and nurse practitioners face many barriers to their participation during SDM. Organizational support and system-wide culture of SDM are essential to achieve better cancer treatment decisions outcome. Additional studies are needed to determine the factors that can promote more participation among nurses and nurse practitioners. © The Author(s) 2016.
Solar-gas systems impact analysis study

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Neill, C. P.; Hahn, E. F.; Loose, J. C.; Poe, T. E.; Hirshberg, A. S.; Haas, S.; Preble, B.; Halpin, J.

1984-07-01

The impacts of solar/gas technologies on gas consumers and on gas utilities were measured separately and compared against the impacts of competing gas and electric systems in four climatic regions of the U.S. A methodology was developed for measuring the benefits or penalties of solar/gas systems on a combined basis for consumers sand distribution companies. It is shown that the combined benefits associated with solar/gas systems are generally greatest when the systems are purchased by customers who would have otherwise chosen high-efficiency electric systems (were solar/gas systems not available in the market place). The role of gas utilities in encouraging consumer acceptance of solar/gas systems was also examined ion a qualitative fashion. A decision framework for analyzing the type and level of utility involvement in solar/gas technologies was developed.
Multiattribute risk analysis in nuclear emergency management.

PubMed

Hämäläinen, R P; Lindstedt, M R; Sinkko, K

2000-08-01

Radiation protection authorities have seen a potential for applying multiattribute risk analysis in nuclear emergency management and planning to deal with conflicting objectives, different parties involved, and uncertainties. This type of approach is expected to help in the following areas: to ensure that all relevant attributes are considered in decision making; to enhance communication between the concerned parties, including the public; and to provide a method for explicitly including risk analysis in the process. A multiattribute utility theory analysis was used to select a strategy for protecting the population after a simulated nuclear accident. The value-focused approach and the use of a neutral facilitator were identified as being useful.
Predictive factors of pathologic complete response of HER2-positive breast cancer after preoperative chemotherapy with trastuzumab: development of a specific predictor and study of its utilities using decision curve analysis.

PubMed

Jankowski, Clémentine; Guiu, S; Cortet, M; Charon-Barra, C; Desmoulins, I; Lorgis, V; Arnould, L; Fumoleau, P; Coudert, B; Rouzier, R; Coutant, C; Reyal, F

2017-01-01

The aim of this study was to assess the Institut Gustave Roussy/M.D. Anderson Cancer Center (IGR/MDACC) nomogram in predicting pathologic complete response (pCR) to preoperative chemotherapy in a cohort of human epidermal growth factor receptor 2 (HER2)-positive tumors treated with preoperative chemotherapy with trastuzumab. We then combine clinical and pathological variables associated with pCR into a new nomogram specific to HER2-positive tumors treated by preoperative chemotherapy with trastuzumab. Data from 270 patients with HER2-positive tumors treated with preoperative chemotherapy with trastuzumab at the Institut Curie and at the Georges François Leclerc Cancer Center were used to assess the IGR/MDACC nomogram and to subsequently develop a new nomogram for pCR based on multivariate logistic regression. Model performance was quantified in terms of calibration and discrimination. We studied the utility of the new nomogram using decision curve analysis. The IGR/MDACC nomogram was not accurate for the prediction of pCR in HER2-positive tumors treated by preoperative chemotherapy with trastuzumab, with poor discrimination (AUC = 0.54, 95% CI 0.51-0.58) and poor calibration (p = 0.01). After uni- and multivariate analysis, a new pCR nomogram was built based on T stage (TNM), hormone receptor status, and Ki67 (%). The model had good discrimination with an area under the curve (AUC) at 0.74 (95% CI 0.70-0.79) and adequate calibration (p = 0.93). By decision curve analysis, the model was shown to be relevant between thresholds of 0.3 and 0.7. To the best of our knowledge, ours is the first nomogram to predict pCR in HER2-positive tumors treated by preoperative chemotherapy with trastuzumab. To ensure generalizability, this model needs to be externally validated.
Essays in applied microeconomics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Davis, Lucas William

2005-11-01

The first essay measures the impact of an outbreak of pediatric leukemia on local housing values. A model of residential location choice is used to describe conditions under which the gradient of the hedonic price function with respect to health risk is equal to household marginal willingness to pay to avoid pediatric leukemia risk. This equalizing differential is estimated using property-level sales records from a county in Nevada where residents have recently experienced a severe increase in pediatric leukemia. Housing values are compared before and after the increase with a nearby county acting as a control group. The results indicate that housing values decreased 15.6% during the period of maximum risk. Results are similar for alternative measures of risk and across houses of different sizes. With risk estimates derived using a Bayesian learning model the results imply a statistical value of pediatric leukemia of $5.6 million. The results from the paper provide some of the first market-based estimates of the value of health for children. The second essay evaluates the cost-effectiveness of public incentives that encourage households to purchase high-efficiency durable goods. The demand for durable goods and the demand for energy and other inputs are modeled jointly as the solution to a household production problem. The empirical analysis focuses on the case of clothes washers. The production technology and utilization decision are estimated using household-level data from field trials in which participants received front-loading clothes washers free of charge. The estimation strategy exploits this quasi-random replacement of washers to derive robust estimates of the utilization decision. The results indicate a price elasticity, -.06, that is statistically different from zero across specifications. The parameters from the utilization decision are used to estimate the purchase decision using data from the Consumer Expenditure Survey, 1994-2002. Households consider optimal utilization levels, purchase prices, water rates, energy rates and other factors when deciding which clothes washer to purchase. The complete model is used to simulate the effects of rebate programs and other policies on adoption patterns of clothes washers and household demand for water and energy.
Monitoring of human brain functions in risk decision-making task by diffuse optical tomography using voxel-wise general linear model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lin, Zi-Jing; Li, Lin; Cazzell, Marry; Liu, Hanli

2013-03-01

Functional near-infrared spectroscopy (fNIRS) is a non-invasive imaging technique which measures the hemodynamic changes that reflect the brain activity. Diffuse optical tomography (DOT), a variant of fNIRS with multi-channel NIRS measurements, has demonstrated capability of three dimensional (3D) reconstructions of hemodynamic changes due to the brain activity. Conventional method of DOT image analysis to define the brain activation is based upon the paired t-test between two different states, such as resting-state versus task-state. However, it has limitation because the selection of activation and post-activation period is relatively subjective. General linear model (GLM) based analysis can overcome this limitation. In this study, we combine the 3D DOT image reconstruction with GLM-based analysis (i.e., voxel-wise GLM analysis) to investigate the brain activity that is associated with the risk-decision making process. Risk decision-making is an important cognitive process and thus is an essential topic in the field of neuroscience. The balloon analogue risk task (BART) is a valid experimental model and has been commonly used in behavioral measures to assess human risk taking action and tendency while facing risks. We have utilized the BART paradigm with a blocked design to investigate brain activations in the prefrontal and frontal cortical areas during decision-making. Voxel-wise GLM analysis was performed on 18human participants (10 males and 8females).In this work, we wish to demonstrate the feasibility of using voxel-wise GLM analysis to image and study cognitive functions in response to risk decision making by DOT. Results have shown significant changes in the dorsal lateral prefrontal cortex (DLPFC) during the active choice mode and a different hemodynamic pattern between genders, which are in good agreements with published literatures in functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI) and fNIRS studies.
From Population Databases to Research and Informed Health Decisions and Policy.

PubMed

Machluf, Yossy; Tal, Orna; Navon, Amir; Chaiter, Yoram

2017-01-01

In the era of big data, the medical community is inspired to maximize the utilization and processing of the rapidly expanding medical datasets for clinical-related and policy-driven research. This requires a medical database that can be aggregated, interpreted, and integrated at both the individual and population levels. Policymakers seek data as a lever for wise, evidence-based decision-making and information-driven policy. Yet, bridging the gap between data collection, research, and policymaking, is a major challenge. To bridge this gap, we propose a four-step model: (A) creating a conjoined task force of all relevant parties to declare a national program to promote collaborations; (B) promoting a national digital records project, or at least a network of synchronized and integrated databases, in an accessible transparent manner; (C) creating an interoperative national research environment to enable the analysis of the organized and integrated data and to generate evidence; and (D) utilizing the evidence to improve decision-making, to support a wisely chosen national policy. For the latter purpose, we also developed a novel multidimensional set of criteria to illuminate insights and estimate the risk for future morbidity based on current medical conditions. Used by policymakers, providers of health plans, caregivers, and health organizations, we presume this model will assist transforming evidence generation to support the design of health policy and programs, as well as improved decision-making about health and health care, at all levels: individual, communal, organizational, and national.
Qualitative Analysis of Surveyed Emergency Responders and the Identified Factors That Affect First Stage of Primary Triage Decision-Making of Mass Casualty Incidents

PubMed Central

Klein, Kelly R.; Burkle Jr., Frederick M.; Swienton, Raymond; King, Richard V.; Lehman, Thomas; North, Carol S.

2016-01-01

Introduction: After all large-scale disasters multiple papers are published describing the shortcomings of the triage methods utilized. This paper uses medical provider input to help describe attributes and patient characteristics that impact triage decisions. Methods: A survey distributed electronically to medical providers with and without disaster experience. Questions asked included what disaster experiences they had, and to rank six attributes in order of importance regarding triage. Results: 403 unique completed surveys were analyzed. 92% practiced a structural triage approach with the rest reporting they used “gestalt”.(gut feeling) Twelve per cent were identified as having placed patients in an expectant category during triage. Respiratory status, ability to speak, perfusion/pulse were all ranked in the top three. Gut feeling regardless of statistical analysis was fourth. Supplies were ranked in the top four when analyzed for those who had placed patients in the expectant category. Conclusion: Primary triage decisions in a mass casualty scenario are multifactorial and encompass patient mobility, life saving interventions, situational instincts, and logistics. PMID:27651979
Forecasting of Seasonal Rainfall using ENSO and IOD teleconnection with Classification Models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

De Silva, T.; Hornberger, G. M.

2017-12-01

Seasonal to annual forecasts of precipitation patterns are very important for water infrastructure management. In particular, such forecasts can be used to inform decisions about the operation of multipurpose reservoir systems in the face of changing climate conditions. Success in making useful forecasts often is achieved by considering climate teleconnections such as the El-Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) as related to sea surface temperature variations. We present an analysis to explore the utility of using rainfall relationships in Sri Lanka with ENSO and IOD to predict rainfall to the Mahaweli, river basin. Forecasting of rainfall as classes - above normal, normal, and below normal - can be useful for water resource management decision making. Quadratic discrimination analysis (QDA) and random forest models are used to identify the patterns of rainfall classes with respect to ENSO and IOD indices. These models can be used to forecast the likelihood of areal rainfall anomalies using predicted climate indices. Results can be used for decisions regarding allocation of water for agriculture and electricity generation within the Mahaweli project of Sri Lanka.

An Intelligent Polar Cyberinfrastrucuture to Support Spatiotemporal Decision Making

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Song, M.; Li, W.; Zhou, X.

2014-12-01

In the era of big data, polar sciences have already faced an urgent demand of utilizing intelligent approaches to support precise and effective spatiotemporal decision-making. Service-oriented cyberinfrastructure has advantages of seamlessly integrating distributed computing resources, and aggregating a variety of geospatial data derived from Earth observation network. This paper focuses on building a smart service-oriented cyberinfrastructure to support intelligent question answering related to polar datasets. The innovation of this polar cyberinfrastructure includes: (1) a problem-solving environment that parses geospatial question in natural language, builds geoprocessing rules, composites atomic processing services and executes the entire workflow; (2) a self-adaptive spatiotemporal filter that is capable of refining query constraints through semantic analysis; (3) a dynamic visualization strategy to support results animation and statistics in multiple spatial reference systems; and (4) a user-friendly online portal to support collaborative decision-making. By means of this polar cyberinfrastructure, we intend to facilitate integration of distributed and heterogeneous Arctic datasets and comprehensive analysis of multiple environmental elements (e.g. snow, ice, permafrost) to provide a better understanding of the environmental variation in circumpolar regions.
A quantitative benefit-risk assessment approach to improve decision making in drug development: Application of a multicriteria decision analysis model in the development of combination therapy for overactive bladder.

PubMed

de Greef-van der Sandt, I; Newgreen, D; Schaddelee, M; Dorrepaal, C; Martina, R; Ridder, A; van Maanen, R

2016-04-01

A multicriteria decision analysis (MCDA) approach was developed and used to estimate the benefit-risk of solifenacin and mirabegron and their combination in the treatment of overactive bladder (OAB). The objectives were 1) to develop an MCDA tool to compare drug effects in OAB quantitatively, 2) to establish transparency in the evaluation of the benefit-risk profile of various dose combinations, and 3) to quantify the added value of combination use compared to monotherapies. The MCDA model was developed using efficacy, safety, and tolerability attributes and the results of a phase II factorial design combination study were evaluated. Combinations of solifenacin 5 mg and mirabegron 25 mg and mirabegron 50 (5+25 and 5+50) scored the highest clinical utility and supported combination therapy development of solifenacin and mirabegron for phase III clinical development at these dose regimens. This case study underlines the benefit of using a quantitative approach in clinical drug development programs. © 2015 The American Society for Clinical Pharmacology and Therapeutics.
Multi-Attribute Tradespace Exploration in Space System Design

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ross, A. M.; Hastings, D. E.

2002-01-01

The complexity inherent in space systems necessarily requires intense expenditures of resources both human and monetary. The high level of ambiguity present in the early design phases of these systems causes long, highly iterative, and costly design cycles. This paper looks at incorporating decision theory methods into the early design processes to streamline communication of wants and needs among stakeholders and between levels of design. Communication channeled through formal utility interviews and analysis enables engineers to better understand the key drivers for the system and allows a more thorough exploration of the design tradespace. Multi-Attribute Tradespace Exploration (MATE), an evolving process incorporating decision theory into model and simulation- based design, has been applied to several space system case studies at MIT. Preliminary results indicate that this process can improve the quality of communication to more quickly resolve project ambiguity, and enable the engineer to discover better value designs for multiple stakeholders. MATE is also being integrated into a concurrent design environment to facilitate the transfer knowledge of important drivers into higher fidelity design phases. Formal utility theory provides a mechanism to bridge the language barrier between experts of different backgrounds and differing needs (e.g. scientists, engineers, managers, etc). MATE with concurrent design couples decision makers more closely to the design, and most importantly, maintains their presence between formal reviews.
Quantifying Energy and Water Savings in the U.S. Residential Sector.

PubMed

Chini, Christopher M; Schreiber, Kelsey L; Barker, Zachary A; Stillwell, Ashlynn S

2016-09-06

Stress on water and energy utilities, including natural resource depletion, infrastructure deterioration, and growing populations, threatens the ability to provide reliable and sustainable service. This study presents a demand-side management decision-making tool to evaluate energy and water efficiency opportunities at the residential level, including both direct and indirect consumption. The energy-water nexus accounts for indirect resource consumption, including water-for-energy and energy-for-water. We examine the relationship between water and energy in common household appliances and fixtures, comparing baseline appliances to ENERGY STAR or WaterSense appliances, using a cost abatement analysis for the average U.S. household, yielding a potential annual per household savings of 7600 kWh and 39 600 gallons, with most upgrades having negative abatement cost. We refine the national average cost abatement curves to understand regional relationships, specifically for the urban environments of Los Angeles, Chicago, and New York. Cost abatement curves display per unit cost savings related to overall direct and indirect energy and water efficiency, allowing utilities, policy makers, and homeowners to consider the relationship between energy and water when making decisions. Our research fills an important gap of the energy-water nexus in a residential unit and provides a decision making tool for policy initiatives.
A value-based medicine cost-utility analysis of idiopathic epiretinal membrane surgery.

PubMed

Gupta, Omesh P; Brown, Gary C; Brown, Melissa M

2008-05-01

To perform a reference case, cost-utility analysis of epiretinal membrane (ERM) surgery using current literature on outcomes and complications. Computer-based, value-based medicine analysis. Decision analyses were performed under two scenarios: ERM surgery in better-seeing eye and ERM surgery in worse-seeing eye. The models applied long-term published data primarily from the Blue Mountains Eye Study and the Beaver Dam Eye Study. Visual acuity and major complications were derived from 25-gauge pars plana vitrectomy studies. Patient-based, time trade-off utility values, Markov modeling, sensitivity analysis, and net present value adjustments were used in the design and calculation of results. Main outcome measures included the number of discounted quality-adjusted-life-years (QALYs) gained and dollars spent per QALY gained. ERM surgery in the better-seeing eye compared with observation resulted in a mean gain of 0.755 discounted QALYs (3% annual rate) per patient treated. This model resulted in $4,680 per QALY for this procedure. When sensitivity analysis was performed, utility values varied from $6,245 to $3,746/QALY gained, medical costs varied from $3,510 to $5,850/QALY gained, and ERM recurrence rate increased to $5,524/QALY. ERM surgery in the worse-seeing eye compared with observation resulted in a mean gain of 0.27 discounted QALYs per patient treated. The $/QALY was $16,146 with a range of $20,183 to $12,110 based on sensitivity analyses. Utility values ranged from $21,520 to $12,916/QALY and ERM recurrence rate increased to $16,846/QALY based on sensitivity analysis. ERM surgery is a very cost-effective procedure when compared with other interventions across medical subspecialties.
Economic analysis of routine neuromonitoring of recurrent laryngeal nerve in total thyroidectomy.

PubMed

Sanabria, Álvaro; Ramírez, Adonis

2015-01-01

Thyroidectomy is a common surgery. Routine searching of the recurrent laryngeal nerve is the most important strategy to avoid palsy. Neuromonitoring has been recommended to decrease recurrent laryngeal nerve palsy. To assess if neuromonitoring of recurrent laryngeal nerve during thyroidectomy is cost-effective in a developing country. We designed a decision analysis to assess the cost-effectiveness of recurrent laryngeal nerve neuromonitoring. For probabilities, we used data from a meta-analysis. Utility was measured using preference values. We considered direct costs. We conducted a deterministic and a probabilistic analysis. We did not find differences in utility between arms. The frequency of recurrent laryngeal nerve injury was 1% in the neuromonitor group and 1.6% for the standard group. Thyroidectomy without monitoring was the less expensive alternative. The incremental cost-effectiveness ratio was COP$ 9,112,065. Routine neuromonitoring in total thyroidectomy with low risk of recurrent laryngeal nerve injury is neither cost-useful nor cost-effective in the Colombian health system.
Allowance trading activity and state regulatory rulings: Evidence from the US Acid Rain Program

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Bailey, E.M.

1997-12-31

The US Acid Rain Program is one of the first, and by far the most extensive, applications of a market based approach to pollution control. From the beginning, there has been concern whether utilities would participate in allowance trading, and whether regulatory activity at the state level would further complicate utilities` decision to trade allowances. This paper finds that public utility commission regulation has encouraged allowance trading activity in states with regulatory rulings, but that allowance trading activity has not been limited to states issuing regulations. Until there is evidence suggesting that significant additional cost savings could have been obtainedmore » if additional allowance trading activity had occurred in states without regulations or that utilities in states with regulations are still not taking advantage of all cost saving trading opportunities, this analysis suggests that there is little reason to believe that allowance trading activity is impeded by public utility commission regulations.« less
Expected utility versus expected regret theory versions of decision curve analysis do generate different results when treatment effects are taken into account.

PubMed

Hozo, Iztok; Tsalatsanis, Athanasios; Djulbegovic, Benjamin

2018-02-01

Decision curve analysis (DCA) is a widely used method for evaluating diagnostic tests and predictive models. It was developed based on expected utility theory (EUT) and has been reformulated using expected regret theory (ERG). Under certain circumstances, these 2 formulations yield different results. Here we describe these situations and explain the variation. We compare the derivations of the EUT- and ERG-based formulations of DCA for a typical medical decision problem: "treat none," "treat all," or "use model" to guide treatment. We illustrate the differences between the 2 formulations when applied to the following clinical question: at which probability of death we should refer a terminally ill patient to hospice? Both DCA formulations yielded identical but mirrored results when treatment effects are ignored; they generated significantly different results otherwise. Treatment effect has a significant effect on the results derived by EUT DCA and less so on ERG DCA. The elicitation of specific values for disutilities affected the results even more significantly in the context of EUT DCA, whereas no such elicitation was required within the ERG framework. EUT and ERG DCA generate different results when treatment effects are taken into account. The magnitude of the difference depends on the effect of treatment and the disutilities associated with disease and treatment effects. This is important to realize as the current practice guidelines are uniformly based on EUT; the same recommendations can significantly differ if they are derived based on ERG framework. © 2016 The Authors. Journal of Evaluation in Clinical Practice Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.
Expected utility versus expected regret theory versions of decision curve analysis do generate different results when treatment effects are taken into account

PubMed Central

Hozo, Iztok; Tsalatsanis, Athanasios

2016-01-01

Abstract Rationale, aims, and objectives Decision curve analysis (DCA) is a widely used method for evaluating diagnostic tests and predictive models. It was developed based on expected utility theory (EUT) and has been reformulated using expected regret theory (ERG). Under certain circumstances, these 2 formulations yield different results. Here we describe these situations and explain the variation. Methods We compare the derivations of the EUT‐ and ERG‐based formulations of DCA for a typical medical decision problem: “treat none,” “treat all,” or “use model” to guide treatment. We illustrate the differences between the 2 formulations when applied to the following clinical question: at which probability of death we should refer a terminally ill patient to hospice? Results Both DCA formulations yielded identical but mirrored results when treatment effects are ignored; they generated significantly different results otherwise. Treatment effect has a significant effect on the results derived by EUT DCA and less so on ERG DCA. The elicitation of specific values for disutilities affected the results even more significantly in the context of EUT DCA, whereas no such elicitation was required within the ERG framework. Conclusion EUT and ERG DCA generate different results when treatment effects are taken into account. The magnitude of the difference depends on the effect of treatment and the disutilities associated with disease and treatment effects. This is important to realize as the current practice guidelines are uniformly based on EUT; the same recommendations can significantly differ if they are derived based on ERG framework. PMID:27981695
Does Travel Time to a Radiation Facility Impact Patient Decision-Making Regarding Treatment for Prostate Cancer? A Study of the New Hampshire State Cancer Registry.

PubMed

Ghali, Fady; Celaya, Maria; Laviolette, Michael; Ingimarsson, Johann; Carlos, Heather; Rees, Judy; Hyams, Elias

2018-02-01

We sought to determine whether further distance from a radiation center is associated with lower utilization of external beam radiation therapy (XRT). We retrospectively identified patients with a new diagnosis of localized prostate cancer (CaP) within the New Hampshire State Cancer Registry from 2004 to 2011. Patients were categorized by age, D'Amico risk category, year of treatment, marital status, season of diagnosis, urban/rural residence, and driving time to the nearest radiation facility. Treatment decisions were stratified into those requiring multiple trips (XRT) or a single trip (surgery or brachytherapy). Multivariable regression analysis was performed. A total of 4,731 patients underwent treatment for newly diagnosed CaP during the study period, including 1,575 multitrip (XRT) and 3,156 single-trip treatments. Of these, 87.6% lived within a 30-minute drive to a radiation facility. In multivariable analysis, time to the nearest radiation facility was not associated with treatment decisions (P = .26). However, higher risk category, older age, married status, and winter diagnosis were associated with XRT (P < .05). More recent year of diagnosis and urban residence were associated with single-trip therapy (primarily surgery) (P < .05). There was a significant interaction between travel time and season of diagnosis (P = .03), as well as a marginally significant interaction with urban/rural status (P = .07). Overall, further travel time to a radiation facility was not associated with lower utilization of XRT. These data are encouraging regarding access to care for CaP in New Hampshire. © 2016 National Rural Health Association.
Religious Coping and Types and Sources of Information Used in Making Prostate Cancer Treatment Decisions

PubMed Central

Bowie, Janice V.; Bell, Caryn N.; Ewing, Altovise; Kinlock, Ballington; Ezema, Ashley; Thorpe, Roland J.; LaVeist, Thomas A.

2017-01-01

Treatment experiences for prostate cancer survivors can be challenging and dependent on many clinical and psychosocial factors. One area that is less understood is the information needs and sources men utilize. Among these is the influence of religion as a valid typology and the value it may have on treatment decisions. The objective of this study was to assess the relationship between race, religion, and cancer treatment decisions in African American men compared with White men. Data were from the Diagnosis and Decisions in Prostate Cancer Treatment Outcomes Study that consisted of 877 African American and White men. The main dependent variables sought respondents’ use of resources or advisors when making treatment decisions. Questions also assessed men perceptions of prostate cancer from the perspective of religious coping. After adjusting for age, marital status, education, and insurance status, race differences in the number of sources utilized were partially mediated by cancer was a punishment from God (β = −0.46, SE = 0.012, p < .001), cancer was a test of faith (β = −0.49, SE = 0.013, p < .001), and cancer can be cured with enough prayer (β = −0.47, SE = 0.013, p < .001). Similarly, race differences in the number of advisors utilized in making the treatment decision were partially mediated by cancer was a punishment from God (β = −0.39, SE = 0.014, p = .006), and cancer was a test of faith (β = −0.39, SE = 0.014, p = .006). Religious views on prostate cancer may play an important role in explaining race differences in information used and the number of advisors utilized for treatment decision making for prostate cancer. PMID:28193130
Making Decisions about an Educational Game, Simulation or Workshop: A 'Game Theory' Perspective.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Cryer, Patricia

1988-01-01

Uses game theory to help practitioners make decisions about educational games, simulations, or workshops whose outcomes depend to some extent on chance. Highlights include principles for making decisions involving risk; elementary laws of probability; utility theory; and principles for making decisions involving uncertainty. (eight references)…
Decision-Making Styles and Vocational Maturity: An Alternative Perspective.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Blustein, David L.

1987-01-01

Examined the relationship between decision-making styles and vocational maturity with a focus on the current discrepancy between research and theory regarding the utility of rational decision making. Results were consistent across 177 community college students, in that a reliance upon the rational style was the only significant decision-making…
Shared decision making and serious mental illness.

PubMed

Mahone, Irma H

2008-12-01

This study examined medication decision making by 84 persons with serious mental illness, specifically examining relationships among perceived coercion, decisional capacity, preferences for involvement and actual participation, and the outcomes of medication adherence and quality of life (QoL). Multiple and logistic regression analysis were used in this cross-sectional, descriptive study, controlling for demographic, socioeconomic, and utilization variables. Appreciation was positively related to medication adherence behaviors for the past 6 months. Women, older individuals, and those living independently were more likely to have taken all their medications over the past 6 months. Neither client participation, preference, nor preference-participation agreement was found to be associated with better medication adherence or QoL.
Valuing Treatments for Parkinson Disease Incorporating Process Utility: Performance of Best-Worst Scaling, Time Trade-Off, and Visual Analogue Scales.

PubMed

Weernink, Marieke G M; Groothuis-Oudshoorn, Catharina G M; IJzerman, Maarten J; van Til, Janine A

2016-01-01

The objective of this study was to compare treatment profiles including both health outcomes and process characteristics in Parkinson disease using best-worst scaling (BWS), time trade-off (TTO), and visual analogue scales (VAS). From the model comprising of seven attributes with three levels, six unique profiles were selected representing process-related factors and health outcomes in Parkinson disease. A Web-based survey (N = 613) was conducted in a general population to estimate process-related utilities using profile-based BWS (case 2), multiprofile-based BWS (case 3), TTO, and VAS. The rank order of the six profiles was compared, convergent validity among methods was assessed, and individual analysis focused on the differentiation between pairs of profiles with methods used. The aggregated health-state utilities for the six treatment profiles were highly comparable for all methods and no rank reversals were identified. On the individual level, the convergent validity between all methods was strong; however, respondents differentiated less in the utility of closely related treatment profiles with a VAS or TTO than with BWS. For TTO and VAS, this resulted in nonsignificant differences in mean utilities for closely related treatment profiles. This study suggests that all methods are equally able to measure process-related utility when the aim is to estimate the overall value of treatments. On an individual level, such as in shared decision making, BWS allows for better prioritization of treatment alternatives, especially if they are closely related. The decision-making problem and the need for explicit trade-off between attributes should determine the choice for a method. Copyright © 2016. Published by Elsevier Inc.
Women's autonomy and maternal healthcare service utilization in Ethiopia.

PubMed

Tiruneh, Fentanesh Nibret; Chuang, Kun-Yang; Chuang, Ying-Chih

2017-11-13

Most previous studies on healthcare service utilization in low-income countries have not used a multilevel study design to address the importance of community-level women's autonomy. We assessed whether women's autonomy, measured at both individual and community levels, is associated with maternal healthcare service utilization in Ethiopia. We analyzed data from the 2005 and 2011 Ethiopia Demographic and Health Surveys (N = 6058 and 7043, respectively) for measuring women's decision-making power and permissive gender norms associated with wife beating. We used Spearman's correlation and the chi-squared test for bivariate analyses and constructed generalized estimating equation logistic regression models to analyze the associations between women's autonomy indicators and maternal healthcare service utilization with control for other socioeconomic characteristics. Our multivariate analysis showed that women living in communities with a higher percentage of opposing attitudes toward wife beating were more likely to use all three types of maternal healthcare services in 2011 (adjusted odds ratios = 1.21, 1.23, and 1.18 for four or more antenatal care visits, health facility delivery, and postnatal care visits, respectively). In 2005, the adjusted odds ratios were 1.16 and 1.17 for four or more antenatal care visits and health facility delivery, respectively. In 2011, the percentage of women in the community with high decision-making power was positively associated with the likelihood of four or more antenatal care visits (adjusted odds ratio = 1.14). The association of individual-level autonomy on maternal healthcare service utilization was less profound after we controlled for other individual-level and community-level characteristics. Our study shows that women's autonomy was positively associated with maternal healthcare service utilization in Ethiopia. We suggest addressing woman empowerment in national policies and programs would be the optimal solution.
Safe delivery care practices in western Nepal: Does women's autonomy influence the utilization of skilled care at birth?

PubMed

Bhandari, Tulsi Ram; Kutty, V Raman; Sarma, P Sankara; Dangal, Ganesh

2017-01-01

Despite various efforts to increase the utilization of skilled birth attendants (SBA), nearly two-thirds of deliveries take place at home without the assistance of SBAs in Nepal. We hypothesized that the ability of women to take decisions about their own lives-women's autonomy-plays an important part in birth choices. To know this, we conducted a community-based cross-sectional study for assessing women's autonomy and utilization of safe delivery care service in Kapilvastu district of Nepal from June to October 2014. We used multivariate modeling to associate socioeconomic factors and women's autonomy with the utilization of safe delivery care services. Just over one-third of women sought institutional delivery care during the birth of their last child. Out of the total deliveries at health facilities, nearly 58% women visited health facility for self-reported emergency obstructive care. Only 6.2% home deliveries were handled by health workers and 14.7% women used the safe delivery kit for home delivery care. Higher levels of women's education had a strong positive association (odds ratio = 24.11, CI = 9.43-61.64) with institutional delivery care. Stratified analysis showed that when the husband is educated, women's education seems to work partly through their autonomy in decision making. Educational status of women emerged as one of the key predictors of the utilization of delivery care services in Kapilvastu district. Economic status of household and husband's education are other dominant predictors of the utilization of safe delivery care services. Improving the economic and educational status may be the way out for improving the proportion of institutional deliveries. Women's autonomy may be an important mediating factor in this pathway.
Safe delivery care practices in western Nepal: Does women’s autonomy influence the utilization of skilled care at birth?

PubMed Central

Kutty, V. Raman; Sarma, P. Sankara; Dangal, Ganesh

2017-01-01

Despite various efforts to increase the utilization of skilled birth attendants (SBA), nearly two-thirds of deliveries take place at home without the assistance of SBAs in Nepal. We hypothesized that the ability of women to take decisions about their own lives—women’s autonomy—plays an important part in birth choices. To know this, we conducted a community-based cross-sectional study for assessing women’s autonomy and utilization of safe delivery care service in Kapilvastu district of Nepal from June to October 2014. We used multivariate modeling to associate socioeconomic factors and women’s autonomy with the utilization of safe delivery care services. Just over one-third of women sought institutional delivery care during the birth of their last child. Out of the total deliveries at health facilities, nearly 58% women visited health facility for self-reported emergency obstructive care. Only 6.2% home deliveries were handled by health workers and 14.7% women used the safe delivery kit for home delivery care. Higher levels of women’s education had a strong positive association (odds ratio = 24.11, CI = 9.43–61.64) with institutional delivery care. Stratified analysis showed that when the husband is educated, women’s education seems to work partly through their autonomy in decision making. Educational status of women emerged as one of the key predictors of the utilization of delivery care services in Kapilvastu district. Economic status of household and husband’s education are other dominant predictors of the utilization of safe delivery care services. Improving the economic and educational status may be the way out for improving the proportion of institutional deliveries. Women’s autonomy may be an important mediating factor in this pathway. PMID:28771579
Emotions and Decisions: Beyond Conceptual Vagueness and the Rationality Muddle.

PubMed

Volz, Kirsten G; Hertwig, Ralph

2016-01-01

For centuries, decision scholars paid little attention to emotions: Decisions were modeled in normative and descriptive frameworks with little regard for affective processes. Recently, however, an "emotions revolution" has taken place, particularly in the neuroscientific study of decision making, putting emotional processes on an equal footing with cognitive ones. Yet disappointingly little theoretical progress has been made. The concepts and processes discussed often remain vague, and conclusions about the implications of emotions for rationality are contradictory and muddled. We discuss three complementary ways to move the neuroscientific study of emotion and decision making from agenda setting to theory building. The first is to use reverse inference as a hypothesis-discovery rather than a hypothesis-testing tool, unless its utility can be systematically quantified (e.g., through meta-analysis). The second is to capitalize on the conceptual inventory advanced by the behavioral science of emotions, testing those concepts and unveiling the underlying processes. The third is to model the interplay between emotions and decisions, harnessing existing cognitive frameworks of decision making and mapping emotions onto the postulated computational processes. To conclude, emotions (like cognitive strategies) are not rational or irrational per se: How (un)reasonable their influence is depends on their fit with the environment. © The Author(s) 2015.
Surrogate Analysis and Index Developer (SAID) tool

USGS Publications Warehouse

Domanski, Marian M.; Straub, Timothy D.; Landers, Mark N.

2015-10-01

The regression models created in SAID can be used in utilities that have been developed to work with the USGS National Water Information System (NWIS) and for the USGS National Real-Time Water Quality (NRTWQ) Web site. The real-time dissemination of predicted SSC and prediction intervals for each time step has substantial potential to improve understanding of sediment-related water quality and associated engineering and ecological management decisions.

[Hospital organizational structure].

PubMed

Bittar, O J

1994-01-01

The basic point for an Institution to work is the existence of a definite organizational structure that puts together similar areas allowing decisions and the operationalization of different tasks. Knowledge and analysis of structures of private and public hospitals and a bibliography review about the issue is the purpose of this paper. Suggestions are given about the elaboration of small structures and the utilization of matrix management in order to accomplish the hospitals objectives.
Precision Health Economics and Outcomes Research to Support Precision Medicine: Big Data Meets Patient Heterogeneity on the Road to Value.

PubMed

Chen, Yixi; Guzauskas, Gregory F; Gu, Chengming; Wang, Bruce C M; Furnback, Wesley E; Xie, Guotong; Dong, Peng; Garrison, Louis P

2016-11-02

The "big data" era represents an exciting opportunity to utilize powerful new sources of information to reduce clinical and health economic uncertainty on an individual patient level. In turn, health economic outcomes research (HEOR) practices will need to evolve to accommodate individual patient-level HEOR analyses. We propose the concept of "precision HEOR", which utilizes a combination of costs and outcomes derived from big data to inform healthcare decision-making that is tailored to highly specific patient clusters or individuals. To explore this concept, we discuss the current and future roles of HEOR in health sector decision-making, big data and predictive analytics, and several key HEOR contexts in which big data and predictive analytics might transform traditional HEOR into precision HEOR. The guidance document addresses issues related to the transition from traditional to precision HEOR practices, the evaluation of patient similarity analysis and its appropriateness for precision HEOR analysis, and future challenges to precision HEOR adoption. Precision HEOR should make precision medicine more realizable by aiding and adapting healthcare resource allocation. The combined hopes for precision medicine and precision HEOR are that individual patients receive the best possible medical care while overall healthcare costs remain manageable or become more cost-efficient.
Precision Health Economics and Outcomes Research to Support Precision Medicine: Big Data Meets Patient Heterogeneity on the Road to Value

PubMed Central

Chen, Yixi; Guzauskas, Gregory F.; Gu, Chengming; Wang, Bruce C. M.; Furnback, Wesley E.; Xie, Guotong; Dong, Peng; Garrison, Louis P.

2016-01-01

The “big data” era represents an exciting opportunity to utilize powerful new sources of information to reduce clinical and health economic uncertainty on an individual patient level. In turn, health economic outcomes research (HEOR) practices will need to evolve to accommodate individual patient–level HEOR analyses. We propose the concept of “precision HEOR”, which utilizes a combination of costs and outcomes derived from big data to inform healthcare decision-making that is tailored to highly specific patient clusters or individuals. To explore this concept, we discuss the current and future roles of HEOR in health sector decision-making, big data and predictive analytics, and several key HEOR contexts in which big data and predictive analytics might transform traditional HEOR into precision HEOR. The guidance document addresses issues related to the transition from traditional to precision HEOR practices, the evaluation of patient similarity analysis and its appropriateness for precision HEOR analysis, and future challenges to precision HEOR adoption. Precision HEOR should make precision medicine more realizable by aiding and adapting healthcare resource allocation. The combined hopes for precision medicine and precision HEOR are that individual patients receive the best possible medical care while overall healthcare costs remain manageable or become more cost-efficient. PMID:27827859
Geospatial decision support framework for critical infrastructure interdependency assessment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shih, Chung Yan

Critical infrastructures, such as telecommunications, energy, banking and finance, transportation, water systems and emergency services are the foundations of modern society. There is a heavy dependence on critical infrastructures at multiple levels within the supply chain of any good or service. Any disruptions in the supply chain may cause profound cascading effect to other critical infrastructures. A 1997 report by the President's Commission on Critical Infrastructure Protection states that a serious interruption in freight rail service would bring the coal mining industry to a halt within approximately two weeks and the availability of electric power could be reduced in a matter of one to two months. Therefore, this research aimed at representing and assessing the interdependencies between coal supply, transportation and energy production. A proposed geospatial decision support framework was established and applied to analyze interdependency related disruption impact. By utilizing the data warehousing approach, geospatial and non-geospatial data were retrieved, integrated and analyzed based on the transportation model and geospatial disruption analysis developed in the research. The results showed that by utilizing this framework, disruption impacts can be estimated at various levels (e.g., power plant, county, state, etc.) for preventative or emergency response efforts. The information derived from the framework can be used for data mining analysis (e.g., assessing transportation mode usages; finding alternative coal suppliers, etc.).
Operation Exodus: The Massacre of 44 Philippine Police Commandos In Mamasapano Clash

DTIC Science & Technology

2016-09-01

strategic thinking, utilizing Game Theory and Multi-Attribute Decision Making; the combination of these two dynamic tools is used to evaluate their...thinking, utilizing Game Theory and Multi-Attribute Decision Making; the combination of these two dynamic tools is used to evaluate their potential...35 A. GAME THEORETIC APPROACH ......................................................36 B. APPLYING GAME THEORY TO OPLAN: EXODUS
Fire rehabilitation decisions at landscape scales: utilizing state-and-transition models developed through disturbance response grouping of ecological sites

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Recognizing the utility of ecological sites and the associated state-and-transition model (STM) for decision support, the Bureau of Land Management in Nevada partnered with Nevada NRCS and the University of Nevada, Reno (UNR) in 2009 with the goal of creating a team that could (1) expedite developme...
Mapping to Estimate Health-State Utility from Non-Preference-Based Outcome Measures: An ISPOR Good Practices for Outcomes Research Task Force Report.

PubMed

Wailoo, Allan J; Hernandez-Alava, Monica; Manca, Andrea; Mejia, Aurelio; Ray, Joshua; Crawford, Bruce; Botteman, Marc; Busschbach, Jan

2017-01-01

Economic evaluation conducted in terms of cost per quality-adjusted life-year (QALY) provides information that decision makers find useful in many parts of the world. Ideally, clinical studies designed to assess the effectiveness of health technologies would include outcome measures that are directly linked to health utility to calculate QALYs. Often this does not happen, and even when it does, clinical studies may be insufficient for a cost-utility assessment. Mapping can solve this problem. It uses an additional data set to estimate the relationship between outcomes measured in clinical studies and health utility. This bridges the evidence gap between available evidence on the effect of a health technology in one metric and the requirement for decision makers to express it in a different one (QALYs). In 2014, ISPOR established a Good Practices for Outcome Research Task Force for mapping studies. This task force report provides recommendations to analysts undertaking mapping studies, those that use the results in cost-utility analysis, and those that need to critically review such studies. The recommendations cover all areas of mapping practice: the selection of data sets for the mapping estimation, model selection and performance assessment, reporting standards, and the use of results including the appropriate reflection of variability and uncertainty. This report is unique because it takes an international perspective, is comprehensive in its coverage of the aspects of mapping practice, and reflects the current state of the art. Copyright © 2017 International Society for Pharmacoeconomics and Outcomes Research (ISPOR). Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.
A Method for Decision Making using Sustainability Indicators

EPA Science Inventory

Calculations aimed at representing the thought process of decision makers are common within multi-objective decision support tools. These calculations that mathematically describe preferences most often combine various utility scores (i.e., abilities to satisfy desires) with weig...
Sociocultural definitions of risk

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Rayner, S.

1990-10-01

Public constituencies frequently are criticized by technical experts as being irrational in response to low-probability risks. This presentation argued that most people are concerned with a variety of risk attributes other than probability and that is rather irrational to exclude these from the definition and analysis of technological risk. Risk communication, which is at the heart of the right-to-know concept, is described as the creation of shared meaning rather than the mere transmission of information. A case study of utilities, public utility commissions, and public interest groups illustrates how the diversity of institutional cultures in modern society leads to problemsmore » for the creation of shared meanings in establishing trust, distributing liability, and obtaining consent to risk. This holistic approach to risk analysis is most appropriate under conditions of high uncertainty and/or decision stakes. 1 fig., 5 tabs.« less
A cost-utility analysis of the use of preoperative computed tomographic angiography in abdomen-based perforator flap breast reconstruction.

PubMed

Offodile, Anaeze C; Chatterjee, Abhishek; Vallejo, Sergio; Fisher, Carla S; Tchou, Julia C; Guo, Lifei

2015-04-01

Computed tomographic angiography is a diagnostic tool increasingly used for preoperative vascular mapping in abdomen-based perforator flap breast reconstruction. This study compared the use of computed tomographic angiography and the conventional practice of Doppler ultrasonography only in postmastectomy reconstruction using a cost-utility model. Following a comprehensive literature review, a decision analytic model was created using the three most clinically relevant health outcomes in free autologous breast reconstruction with computed tomographic angiography versus Doppler ultrasonography only. Cost and utility estimates for each health outcome were used to derive the quality-adjusted life-years and incremental cost-utility ratio. One-way sensitivity analysis was performed to scrutinize the robustness of the authors' results. Six studies and 782 patients were identified. Cost-utility analysis revealed a baseline cost savings of $3179, a gain in quality-adjusted life-years of 0.25. This yielded an incremental cost-utility ratio of -$12,716, implying a dominant choice favoring preoperative computed tomographic angiography. Sensitivity analysis revealed that computed tomographic angiography was costlier when the operative time difference between the two techniques was less than 21.3 minutes. However, the clinical advantage of computed tomographic angiography over Doppler ultrasonography only showed that computed tomographic angiography would still remain the cost-effective option even if it offered no additional operating time advantage. The authors' results show that computed tomographic angiography is a cost-effective technology for identifying lower abdominal perforators for autologous breast reconstruction. Although the perfect study would be a randomized controlled trial of the two approaches with true cost accrual, the authors' results represent the best available evidence.
Impact of socioeconomic factors on informed decision making and treatment choice in patients with hip and knee OA.

PubMed

Youm, Jiwon; Chan, Vanessa; Belkora, Jeffrey; Bozic, Kevin J

2015-02-01

It is unclear how socioeconomic (SES) status influences the effectiveness of shared decision making (SDM) tools. The purpose of this study was to assess the impact of SES on the utility of SDM tools among patients with hip and knee osteoarthritis (OA). We performed a secondary analysis of data from a randomized controlled trial of 123 patients with hip or knee OA. Higher education and higher income were independently associated with higher knowledge survey scores. Patients with private insurance were 2.7 times more likely than patients with Medicare to arrive at a decision after the initial office visit. Higher education was associated with lower odds of choosing surgery, even after adjusting for knowledge. Patient knowledge of their medical condition and treatment options varies with SES. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.
A systematic review of the quality of economic models comparing thrombosis inhibitors in patients with acute coronary syndrome undergoing percutaneous coronary intervention.

PubMed

Hatz, Maximilian H M; Leidl, Reiner; Yates, Nichola A; Stollenwerk, Björn

2014-04-01

Thrombosis inhibitors can be used to treat acute coronary syndromes (ACS). However, there are various alternative treatment strategies, of which some have been compared using health economic decision models. To assess the quality of health economic decision models comparing thrombosis inhibitors in patients with ACS undergoing percutaneous coronary intervention, and to identify areas for quality improvement. The literature databases MEDLINE, EMBASE, EconLit, National Health Service Economic Evaluation Database (NHS EED), Database of Abstracts of Reviews of Effects (DARE) and Health Technology Assessment (HTA). A review of the quality of health economic decision models was conducted by two independent reviewers, using the Philips checklist. Twenty-one relevant studies were identified. Differences were apparent regarding the model type (six decision trees, four Markov models, eight combinations, three undefined models), the model structure (types of events, Markov states) and the incorporation of data (efficacy, cost and utility data). Critical issues were the absence of particular events (e.g. thrombocytopenia, stroke) and questionable usage of utility values within some studies. As we restricted our search to health economic decision models comparing thrombosis inhibitors, interesting aspects related to the quality of studies of adjacent medical areas that compared stents or procedures could have been missed. This review identified areas where recommendations are indicated regarding the quality of future ACS decision models. For example, all critical events and relevant treatment options should be included. Models also need to allow for changing event probabilities to correctly reflect ACS and to incorporate appropriate, age-specific utility values and decrements when conducting cost-utility analyses.
Cost-Effectiveness Analysis of Early Reconstruction Versus Rehabilitation and Delayed Reconstruction for Anterior Cruciate Ligament Tears.

PubMed

Mather, Richard C; Hettrich, Carolyn M; Dunn, Warren R; Cole, Brian J; Bach, Bernard R; Huston, Laura J; Reinke, Emily K; Spindler, Kurt P

2014-07-01

An initial anterior cruciate ligament (ACL) tear can be treated with surgical reconstruction or focused rehabilitation. The KANON (Knee Anterior cruciate ligament, NON-surgical versus surgical treatment) randomized controlled trial compared rehabilitation plus early ACL reconstruction (ACLR) to rehabilitation plus optional delayed ACLR and found no difference at 2 years by an intention-to-treat analysis of total Knee injury and Osteoarthritis Outcome Score (KOOS) results. To compare the cost-effectiveness of early versus delayed ACLR. Economic and decision analysis; Level of evidence, 2. A Markov decision model was constructed for a cost-utility analysis of early reconstruction (ER) versus rehabilitation plus optional delayed reconstruction (DR). Outcome probabilities and effectiveness were derived from 2 sources: the KANON study and the Multicenter Orthopaedic Outcomes Network (MOON) database. Collectively, these 2 sources provided data from 928 ACL-injured patients. Utilities were measured by the Short Form-6 dimensions (SF-6D). Costs were estimated from a societal perspective in 2012 US dollars. Costs and utilities were discounted in accordance with the United States Panel on Cost-Effectiveness in Health and Medicine. Effectiveness was expressed in quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs) gained. Principal outcome measures were average incremental costs, incremental effectiveness (as measured by QALYs), and net health benefits. Willingness to pay was set at $50,000, which is the currently accepted standard in the United States. In the base case, the ER group resulted in an incremental gain of 0.28 QALYs over the DR group, with a corresponding lower overall cost to society of $1572. Effectiveness gains were driven by the low utility of an unstable knee and the lower utility for the DR group. The cost of rehabilitation and the rate of additional surgery drove the increased cost of the DR group. The most sensitive variable was the rate of knee instability after initial rehabilitation. When the rate of instability falls to 51.5%, DR is less costly, and when the rate of instability falls below 18.0%, DR becomes the preferred cost-effective strategy. An economic analysis of the timing of ACLR using data exclusively from the KANON trial, MOON cohort, and national average reimbursement revealed that early ACLR was more effective (improved QALYs) at a lower cost than rehabilitation plus optional delayed ACLR. Therefore, early ACLR should be the preferred treatment strategy from a societal health system perspective. © 2014 The Author(s).
[Use the Markov-decision tree model to optimize vaccination strategies of hepatitis E among women aged 15 to 49].

PubMed

Chen, Z M; Ji, S B; Shi, X L; Zhao, Y Y; Zhang, X F; Jin, H

2017-02-10

Objective: To evaluate the cost-utility of different hepatitis E vaccination strategies in women aged 15 to 49. Methods: The Markov-decision tree model was constructed to evaluate the cost-utility of three hepatitis E virus vaccination strategies. Parameters of the models were estimated on the basis of published studies and experience of experts. Both methods on sensitivity and threshold analysis were used to evaluate the uncertainties of the model. Results: Compared with non-vaccination group, strategy on post-screening vaccination with rate as 100%, could save 0.10 quality-adjusted life years per capital in the women from the societal perspectives. After implementation of screening program and with the vaccination rate reaching 100%, the incremental cost utility ratio (ICUR) of vaccination appeared as 5 651.89 and 6 385.33 Yuan/QALY, respectively. Vaccination post to the implementation of a screening program, the result showed better benefit than the vaccination rate of 100%. Results from the sensitivity analysis showed that both the cost of hepatitis E vaccine and the inoculation compliance rate presented significant effects. If the cost were lower than 191.56 Yuan (RMB) or the inoculation compliance rate lower than 0.23, the vaccination rate of 100% strategy was better than the post-screening vaccination strategy, otherwise the post-screening vaccination strategy appeared the optimal strategy. Conclusion: Post-screening vaccination for women aged 15 to 49 from social perspectives seemed the optimal one but it had to depend on the change of vaccine cost and the rate of inoculation compliance.
Birth Planning Values and Decisions: Preliminary Findings.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Townes, Brenda D.; And Others

The values and processes which underlie people's birth planning decisions were studied via decision theory. Sixty-three married couples including 23 with no children, 33 with one child, and 27 with two children were presented with a large set of personal values related to birth planning decisions. Individuals rated the importance or utility of…
10 CFR 900.6 - Coordination of permitting and related environmental reviews.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-01-01

... display the information utilized by the permitting entities as the basis for their decisions on the... to all permitting entities for making their agency decisions in order to ensure that each permitting... final agency decision, and all other analyses used as the basis for all decisions on a proposed...
To Achieve or Not To Achieve: A Self-Regulation Perspective on Adolescents' Academic Decision Making.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Miller, David C.; Byrnes, James P.

2001-01-01

This study investigated the utility of the self-regulation model of decision making for explaining and predicting adolescents' academic decision making. Measures included an assessment of decision-making skill; academic goals; select scales of Learning and Study Strategies Inventory; and teacher ratings of achievement behavior. Adolescents'…
Helping Water Utilities Grapple with Climate Change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yates, D.; Gracely, B.; Miller, K.

2008-12-01

The Water Research Foundation (WRF), serving the drinking water industry and the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) are collaborating on an effort to develop and implement locally-relevant, structured processes to help water utilities consider the impacts and adaptation options that climate variability and change might have on their water systems. Adopting a case-study approach, the structured process include 1) a problem definition phase, focused on identifying goals, information needs, utility vulnerabilities and possible adaptation options in the face of climate and hydrologic uncertainty; 2) developing and/or modifying system-specific Integrated Water Resource Management (IWRM) models and conducting sensitivity analysis to identify critical variables; 3) developing probabilistic climate change scenarios focused on exploring uncertainties identified as important in the sensitivity analysis in step 2; and 4) implementing the structured process and examining approaches decision making under uncertainty. Collaborators include seven drinking water utilities and two state agencies: 1) The Inland Empire Utility Agency, CA; 2) The El Dorado Irrigation District, Placerville CA; 2) Portland Water Bureau, Portland OR; 3) Colorado Springs Utilities, Colo Spgs, CO; 4) Cincinnati Water, Cincinnati, OH; 5) Massachusetts Water Resources Authority (MWRA), Boston, MA; 6) Durham Water, Durham, NC; and 7) Palm Beach County Water (PBCW), Palm Beach, FL. The California Department of Water Resources and the Colorado Water Conservation Board were the state agencies that we have collaborated with.
A method of decision analysis quantifying the effects of age and comorbidities on the probability of deriving significant benefit from medical treatments

PubMed Central

Bean, Nigel G.; Ruberu, Ravi P.

2017-01-01

Background The external validity, or generalizability, of trials and guidelines has been considered poor in the context of multiple morbidity. How multiple morbidity might affect the magnitude of benefit of a given treatment, and thereby external validity, has had little study. Objective To provide a method of decision analysis to quantify the effects of age and comorbidity on the probability of deriving a given magnitude of treatment benefit. Design We developed a method to calculate probabilistically the effect of all of a patient’s comorbidities on their underlying utility, or well-being, at a future time point. From this, we derived a distribution of possible magnitudes of treatment benefit at that future time point. We then expressed this distribution as the probability of deriving at least a given magnitude of treatment benefit. To demonstrate the applicability of this method of decision analysis, we applied it to the treatment of hypercholesterolaemia in a geriatric population of 50 individuals. We highlighted the results of four of these individuals. Results This method of analysis provided individualized quantifications of the effect of age and comorbidity on the probability of treatment benefit. The average probability of deriving a benefit, of at least 50% of the magnitude of benefit available to an individual without comorbidity, was only 0.8%. Conclusion The effects of age and comorbidity on the probability of deriving significant treatment benefits can be quantified for any individual. Even without consideration of other factors affecting external validity, these effects may be sufficient to guide decision-making. PMID:29090189
An Analysis of the Associations among Cognitive Impulsiveness, Reasoning Process, and Rational Decision Making

PubMed Central

Jelihovschi, Ana P. G.; Cardoso, Ricardo L.; Linhares, Alexandre

2018-01-01

Impulsivity may lead to several unfortunate consequences and maladaptive behaviors for both clinical and nonclinical people. It has a key role in many forms of psychopathology. Although literature has discussed the negative impact of impulsivity, few have emphasized the relationship between cognitive impulsiveness and decision making. The aim of this study is to investigate the effects of cognitive impulsiveness on decision making and explore the strategies used by participants to solve problems. For this purpose, we apply two measures of impulsivity: the self-report Barratt Impulsiveness Scale (BIS-11) and the performance based Cognitive Reflection Test (CRT). Moreover, we evaluate participants' reasoning processes employed to answer CRT questions based on the calculation expressions, data organization, and erasures they made while answering the CRT (note that we utilized the instruments using pen and paper). These reasoning processes are related to the role of executive functions in decision making, and its relationship with impulsiveness. The sample consists of 191 adults, who were either professionals or undergraduate students from the fields of business, management, or accounting. The results show that cognitive impulsiveness may negatively affect decision making, and that those who presented the calculation to answer the CRT questions made better decisions. Moreover, there was no difference in the strategies used by impulsive vs. nonimpulsive participants during decision making. Finally, people who inhibited their immediate answers to CRT questions performed better during decision making. PMID:29375440

An Analysis of the Associations among Cognitive Impulsiveness, Reasoning Process, and Rational Decision Making.

PubMed

Jelihovschi, Ana P G; Cardoso, Ricardo L; Linhares, Alexandre

2017-01-01

Impulsivity may lead to several unfortunate consequences and maladaptive behaviors for both clinical and nonclinical people. It has a key role in many forms of psychopathology. Although literature has discussed the negative impact of impulsivity, few have emphasized the relationship between cognitive impulsiveness and decision making. The aim of this study is to investigate the effects of cognitive impulsiveness on decision making and explore the strategies used by participants to solve problems. For this purpose, we apply two measures of impulsivity: the self-report Barratt Impulsiveness Scale (BIS-11) and the performance based Cognitive Reflection Test (CRT). Moreover, we evaluate participants' reasoning processes employed to answer CRT questions based on the calculation expressions, data organization, and erasures they made while answering the CRT (note that we utilized the instruments using pen and paper). These reasoning processes are related to the role of executive functions in decision making, and its relationship with impulsiveness. The sample consists of 191 adults, who were either professionals or undergraduate students from the fields of business, management, or accounting. The results show that cognitive impulsiveness may negatively affect decision making, and that those who presented the calculation to answer the CRT questions made better decisions. Moreover, there was no difference in the strategies used by impulsive vs. nonimpulsive participants during decision making. Finally, people who inhibited their immediate answers to CRT questions performed better during decision making.
Decision technology.

PubMed

Edwards, W; Fasolo, B

2001-01-01

This review is about decision technology-the rules and tools that help us make wiser decisions. First, we review the three rules that are at the heart of most traditional decision technology-multi-attribute utility, Bayes' theorem, and subjective expected utility maximization. Since the inception of decision research, these rules have prescribed how we should infer values and probabilities and how we should combine them to make better decisions. We suggest how to make best use of all three rules in a comprehensive 19-step model. The remainder of the review explores recently developed tools of decision technology. It examines the characteristics and problems of decision-facilitating sites on the World Wide Web. Such sites now provide anyone who can use a personal computer with access to very sophisticated decision-aiding tools structured mainly to facilitate consumer decision making. It seems likely that the Web will be the mode by means of which decision tools will be distributed to lay users. But methods for doing such apparently simple things as winnowing 3000 options down to a more reasonable number, like 10, contain traps for unwary decision technologists. The review briefly examines Bayes nets and influence diagrams-judgment and decision-making tools that are available as computer programs. It very briefly summarizes the state of the art of eliciting probabilities from experts. It concludes that decision tools will be as important in the 21st century as spreadsheets were in the 20th.
Capacity Building on the Use of Earth Observation for Bridging the Gaps between Science and Policy

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Thapa, R. B.; Bajracharya, B.

2017-12-01

Although the geospatial technologies and Earth observation (EO) data are getting more accessible, lack of skilled human resources and institutional capacities are the major hurdles in the effective applications in Hindu Kush Himalayan (HKH) region. Designing efficient and cost effective capacity building (CB) programs fitting needs by different users on the use of EO information for decision making will provide options in bridging the gaps in the region. This paper presents the strategies adopted by SERVIR-HKH as an attempt to strengthen the capacity of governments and development stakeholders in the region. SERVIR-HKH hub plays vital role in CB on EO applications by bringing together the leading scientists from the Globe and the key national institutions and stakeholders in the region. We conducted country consultation workshops in Afghanistan, Bangladesh, Pakistan, and Nepal to identify national priorities, requirements and the capacity of the institutions to utilize EO information in decision making. The need assessments were focused on four thematic areas of SERVIR where capacity gaps in utilization of EO data in policy decisions were identified in thirteen key service areas. Geospatial capacities in GIT infrastructure, data, and human resources were varied. Linking EO information to policy decision is mostly lacking. Geospatial data sharing provision among the institutions in the region is poor. We developed a capacity building strategy for HKH region which bridges the gaps in a coordinated manner through customized training programs, institutional strengthening, coordination and regional cooperation. Using the strategy, we conducted training on FEWS NET remote sensing products for agro-climatological analysis, which focused on technical interpretation and analysis of the remote sensing and modeled products, eg, CHIRPS, RFE2, CHIRTS, GFS, NDVI, GeoCLIM and GeoGLAM. Scientists from USGS FEWS NET program delivered the training to mid-level managers and decision makers. We also carried out on-the-job trainings on wheat mapping using multi-sensor EO data for co-development of methodologies and implementation on sustainable basis. In this presentation, we will also present the lesson learned from capacity building efforts at SERVIR-HKH and how we envision the best practices for other SERVIR hubs.
Development of a Medicare Beneficiary Comprehension Test: Assessing Medicare Part D Beneficiaries' Comprehension of Their Benefits

PubMed Central

Aruru, Meghana V.; Salmon, J. Warren

2013-01-01

Background Medicare Part D, the senior prescription drug benefit plan, was introduced through the Medicare Modernization Act of 2003. Medicare beneficiaries receive information about plan options through multiple sources, and it is often assumed by consumer health plans and healthcare providers that beneficiaries can understand and compare plan information. Medicare beneficiaries are older, may have cognitive problems, and may not have a true understanding of managed care. They are more likely than younger persons to have inadequate health literacy, thereby demonstrating significant gaps in knowledge and information about healthcare. Objective To develop a Medicare Beneficiary Comprehension Test (MBCT) to evaluate Medicare beneficiaries' understanding of Part D plan concepts, as presented in the 2008 Medicare & You handbook. Methods A 10-question MBCT was developed using a case-vignette approach that required beneficiaries to read portions of the Medicare & You handbook and answer Part D–related questions associated with healthcare decision-making. The test was divided into 2 sections: (I) insurance concepts and (II) utilization management/appeals and grievances to cover standard terminology, as well as newer utilization management and appeals and grievances procedures that are unique to Part D. The test was administered to 100 beneficiaries at 2 sites—a university geriatrics clinic and a private retirement facility. Beneficiaries were tested for cognition and health literacy before being administered the test. Results The mean score on the MBCT was 3.5 of a maximum of 5, with no statistical difference found between both sites. Ten faculty members and 4 graduate students assessed the content validity of the instrument using a 4-point Likert rating rubric. The construct validity of the instrument was assessed using a principal components analysis with varimax rotation. The principal components analysis yielded 4 factors that were labeled as “Plan D concepts,” “managed care/utilization management,” “cost-sharing,” and “plan comparisons.” The factor analysis indicated that the test is multidimensional and did measure the construct. Conclusions Medicare beneficiaries' understanding of Part D may play a key role in the management of their drug use and health and the associated outcomes. The MBCT and its pending revisions can be administered to beneficiaries with differing health outcomes. Medicare beneficiaries are often faced with several pieces of information involving a complex array of choices amidst bewildering plan options. It is crucial that beneficiaries and/or their family members involved in the decision-making process understand the plan benefits to truly make an informed decision. As the number of Medicare beneficiaries increases over the coming years with the baby boomers, it becomes even more imperative that the elderly have improved access to treatments that can achieve desirable outcomes. Measuring comprehension by Medicare beneficiaries may be an initial step toward understanding more complex issues, such as treatment adherence, decision-making, and, ultimately, trends in healthcare utilization and outcomes. PMID:24991375
Cost-utility analysis of botulinum toxin type A products for the treatment of cervical dystonia.

PubMed

Kazerooni, Rashid; Broadhead, Christine

2015-02-15

A cost-utility analysis of botulinum toxin type A products for the treatment of cervical dystonia (CD) was conducted. A cost-utility analysis of botulinum toxin type A products was conducted from the U.S. government perspective using a decision-analysis model with a one-year time horizon. Probabilities of the model were taken from several studies using the three botulinum type A products approved by the Food and Drug Administration for the treatment of CD: onabotulinumtoxinA (Botox), abobotulinumtoxinA (Dysport), and incobotulinumtoxinA (Xeomin). The main outcome measurement was successful treatment response with botulinum toxin type A, measured in quality-adjusted life years (QALYs). Response was defined as a patient who experienced improvement of CD symptoms without a severe adverse event. Probabilistic sensitivity analysis was conducted to test robustness of the base-case results. All three botulinum toxin type A agents were cost-effective at a willingness-to-pay threshold of $100,000 per QALY. Xeomin was the most cost-effective with a cost-effectiveness ratio of $27,548 per QALY. Xeomin was dominant over the alternative agents with equivalent efficacy outcomes and lower costs. Dysport had the second lowest cost-effectiveness ratio ($36,678), followed by Botox ($49,337). The probabilistic sensitivity analysis supported the results of the base-case analysis. Dysport was associated with the lowest wastage (2.2%), followed by Xeomin (10%) and Botox (22.9%). A cost-utility analysis found that Xeomin was the more cost-effective botulinum toxin type A product compared with Botox and Dysport for the treatment of CD. Wastage associated with the respective products may have a large effect on the cost-effectiveness of the agents. Copyright © 2015 by the American Society of Health-System Pharmacists, Inc. All rights reserved.
Implementation of a Mobile Clinical Decision Support Application to Augment Local Antimicrobial Stewardship.

PubMed

Hoff, Brian M; Ford, Diana C; Ince, Dilek; Ernst, Erika J; Livorsi, Daniel J; Heintz, Brett H; Masse, Vincent; Brownlee, Michael J; Ford, Bradley A

2018-01-01

Medical applications for mobile devices allow clinicians to leverage microbiological data and standardized guidelines to treat patients with infectious diseases. We report the implementation of a mobile clinical decision support (CDS) application to augment local antimicrobial stewardship. We detail the implementation of our mobile CDS application over 20 months. Application utilization data were collected and evaluated using descriptive statistics to quantify the impact of our implementation. Project initiation focused on engaging key stakeholders, developing a business case, and selecting a mobile platform. The preimplementation phase included content development, creation of a pathway for content approval within the hospital committee structure, engaging clinical leaders, and formatting the first version of the guide. Implementation involved a media campaign, staff education, and integration within the electronic medical record and hospital mobile devices. The postimplementation phase required ongoing quality improvement, revision of outdated content, and repeated staff education. The evaluation phase included a guide utilization analysis, reporting to hospital leadership, and sustainability and innovation planning. The mobile application was downloaded 3056 times and accessed 9259 times during the study period. The companion web viewer was accessed 8214 times. Successful implementation of a customizable mobile CDS tool enabled our team to expand beyond microbiological data to clinical diagnosis, treatment, and antimicrobial stewardship, broadening our influence on antimicrobial prescribing and incorporating utilization data to inspire new quality and safety initiatives. Further studies are needed to assess the impact on antimicrobial utilization, infection control measures, and patient care outcomes.
Cost-effectiveness Analysis for Technology Acquisition.

PubMed

Chakravarty, A; Naware, S S

2008-01-01

In a developing country with limited resources, it is important to utilize the total cost visibility approach over the entire life-cycle of the technology and then analyse alternative options for acquiring technology. The present study analysed cost-effectiveness of an "In-house" magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) scan facility of a large service hospital against outsourcing possibilities. Cost per unit scan was calculated by operating costing method and break-even volume was calculated. Then life-cycle cost analysis was performed to enable total cost visibility of the MRI scan in both "In-house" and "outsourcing of facility" configuration. Finally, cost-effectiveness analysis was performed to identify the more acceptable decision option. Total cost for performing unit MRI scan was found to be Rs 3,875 for scans without contrast and Rs 4,129 with contrast. On life-cycle cost analysis, net present value (NPV) of the "In-house" configuration was found to be Rs-(4,09,06,265) while that of "outsourcing of facility" configuration was Rs-(5,70,23,315). Subsequently, cost-effectiveness analysis across eight Figures of Merit showed the "In-house" facility to be the more acceptable option for the system. Every decision for acquiring high-end technology must be subjected to life-cycle cost analysis.
Promoting Shared Decision Making in Disorders of Sex Development (DSD): Decision Aids and Support Tools.

PubMed

Siminoff, L A; Sandberg, D E

2015-05-01

Specific complaints and grievances from adult patients with disorders of sex development (DSD), and their advocates center around the lack of information or misinformation they were given about their condition and feeling stigmatized and shamed by the secrecy surrounding their condition and its management. Many also attribute poor sexual function to damaging genital surgery and/or repeated, insensitive genital examinations. These reports suggest the need to reconsider the decision-making process for the treatment of children born with DSD. This paper proposes that shared decision making, an important concept in adult health care, be operationalized for the major decisions commonly encountered in DSD care and facilitated through the utilization of decision aids and support tools. This approach may help patients and their families make informed decisions that are better aligned with their personal values and goals. It may also lead to greater confidence in decision making with greater satisfaction and less regret. A brief review of the past and current approach to DSD decision making is provided, along with a review of shared decision making and decision aids and support tools. A case study explores the need and potential utility of this suggested new approach. © Georg Thieme Verlag KG Stuttgart · New York.
Sensitivity Analysis of Hybrid Propulsion Transportation System for Human Mars Expeditions

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Chai, Patrick R.; Joyce, Ryan T.; Kessler, Paul D.; Merrill, Raymond G.; Qu, Min

2017-01-01

The National Aeronautics and Space Administration continues to develop and refine various transportation options to successfully field a human Mars campaign. One of these transportation options is the Hybrid Transportation System which utilizes both solar electric propulsion and chemical propulsion. The Hybrid propulsion system utilizes chemical propulsion to perform high thrust maneuvers, where the delta-V is most optimal when ap- plied to save time and to leverage the Oberth effect. It then utilizes solar electric propulsion to augment the chemical burns throughout the interplanetary trajectory. This eliminates the need for the development of two separate vehicles for crew and cargo missions. Previous studies considered single point designs of the architecture, with fixed payload mass and propulsion system performance parameters. As the architecture matures, it is inevitable that the payload mass and the performance of the propulsion system will change. It is desirable to understand how these changes will impact the in-space transportation system's mass and power requirements. This study presents an in-depth sensitivity analysis of the Hybrid crew transportation system to payload mass growth and solar electric propulsion performance. This analysis is used to identify the breakpoints of the current architecture and to inform future architecture and campaign design decisions.
A prospective, longitudinal study to evaluate the clinical utility of a predictive algorithm that detects risk of opioid use disorder.

PubMed

Brenton, Ashley; Lee, Chee; Lewis, Katrina; Sharma, Maneesh; Kantorovich, Svetlana; Smith, Gregory A; Meshkin, Brian

2018-01-01

The purpose of this study was to determine the clinical utility of an algorithm-based decision tool designed to assess risk associated with opioid use. Specifically, we sought to assess how physicians were using the profile in patient care and how its use affected patient outcomes. A prospective, longitudinal study was conducted to assess the utility of precision medicine testing in 5,397 patients across 100 clinics in the USA. Using a patent-protected, validated algorithm combining specific genetic risk factors with phenotypic traits, patients were categorized into low-, moderate-, and high-risk patients for opioid abuse. Physicians who ordered precision medicine testing were asked to complete patient evaluations and document their actions, decisions, and perceptions regarding the utility of the precision medicine tests. The patient outcomes associated with each treatment action were carefully documented. Physicians used the profile to guide treatment decisions for over half of the patients. Of those, guided treatment decisions for 24.5% of the patients were opioid related, including changing the opioid prescribed, starting an opioid, or titrating a patient off the opioid. Treatment guidance was strongly influenced by profile-predicted opioid use disorder (OUD) risk. Most importantly, patients whose physicians used the profile to guide opioid-related treatment decisions had improved clinical outcomes, including better pain management by medication adjustments, with an average pain decrease of 3.4 points on a scale of 1-10. Patients whose physicians used the profile to guide opioid-related treatment decisions had improved clinical outcomes, as measured by decreased pain levels resulting from better pain management with prescribed medications. The clinical utility of the profile is twofold. It provides clinically actionable recommendations that can be used to 1) prevent OUD through limiting initial opioid prescriptions and 2) reduce pain in patients at low risk of developing OUD.
A prospective, longitudinal study to evaluate the clinical utility of a predictive algorithm that detects risk of opioid use disorder

PubMed Central

Brenton, Ashley; Lee, Chee; Lewis, Katrina; Sharma, Maneesh; Kantorovich, Svetlana; Smith, Gregory A; Meshkin, Brian

2018-01-01

Purpose The purpose of this study was to determine the clinical utility of an algorithm-based decision tool designed to assess risk associated with opioid use. Specifically, we sought to assess how physicians were using the profile in patient care and how its use affected patient outcomes. Patients and methods A prospective, longitudinal study was conducted to assess the utility of precision medicine testing in 5,397 patients across 100 clinics in the USA. Using a patent-protected, validated algorithm combining specific genetic risk factors with phenotypic traits, patients were categorized into low-, moderate-, and high-risk patients for opioid abuse. Physicians who ordered precision medicine testing were asked to complete patient evaluations and document their actions, decisions, and perceptions regarding the utility of the precision medicine tests. The patient outcomes associated with each treatment action were carefully documented. Results Physicians used the profile to guide treatment decisions for over half of the patients. Of those, guided treatment decisions for 24.5% of the patients were opioid related, including changing the opioid prescribed, starting an opioid, or titrating a patient off the opioid. Treatment guidance was strongly influenced by profile-predicted opioid use disorder (OUD) risk. Most importantly, patients whose physicians used the profile to guide opioid-related treatment decisions had improved clinical outcomes, including better pain management by medication adjustments, with an average pain decrease of 3.4 points on a scale of 1–10. Conclusion Patients whose physicians used the profile to guide opioid-related treatment decisions had improved clinical outcomes, as measured by decreased pain levels resulting from better pain management with prescribed medications. The clinical utility of the profile is twofold. It provides clinically actionable recommendations that can be used to 1) prevent OUD through limiting initial opioid prescriptions and 2) reduce pain in patients at low risk of developing OUD. PMID:29379313
Diagnostic accuracy of clinical tests of the hip: a systematic review with meta-analysis.

PubMed

Reiman, Michael P; Goode, Adam P; Hegedus, Eric J; Cook, Chad E; Wright, Alexis A

2013-09-01

Hip Physical Examination (HPE) tests have long been used to diagnose a myriad of intra-and extra-articular pathologies of the hip joint. Useful clinical utility is necessary to support diagnostic imaging and subsequent surgical decision making. Summarise and evaluate the current research and utility on the diagnostic accuracy of HPE tests for the hip joint germane to sports related injuries and pathology. A computer-assisted literature search of MEDLINE, CINHAL and EMBASE databases (January 1966 to January 2012) using keywords related to diagnostic accuracy of the hip joint. This systematic review with meta-analysis utilised the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses (PRISMA) guidelines for the search and reporting phases of the study. Der-Simonian and Laird random effects models were used to summarise sensitivities (SN), specificities (SP), likelihood ratios and diagnostic OR. The employed search strategy revealed 25 potential articles, with 10 demonstrating high quality. Fourteen articles qualified for meta-analysis. The meta-analysis demonstrated that most tests possess weak diagnostic properties with the exception of the patellar-pubic percussion test, which had excellent pooled SN 95 (95% CI 92 to 97%) and good specificity 86 (95% CI 78 to 92%). Several studies have investigated pathology in the hip. Few of the current studies are of substantial quality to dictate clinical decision-making. Currently, only the patellar-pubic percussion test is supported by the data as a stand-alone HPE test. Further studies involving high quality designs are needed to fully assess the value of HPE tests for patients with intra- and extra-articular hip dysfunction.
Decision-making styles of business and industry: Five insights to improving your sales success

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Bramson, R.M.

1996-04-01

Corporations, like people, have styles-even personalities-that in varied but vital ways affect every decision made at every level in the organization. This report describes five key organizational styles, methods for assessing which style a utility sales representative might encounter, and practical strategies that increase the odds of proposal acceptance. Each style is defined by its (1) goals and priorities, (2) administrative/communicative network, (3) key players, (4) events or circumstances prompting decisions, and (5) typical decision barriers, biases, and selling points. Written in highly readable style, this report provides tools that will help utility representatives proactively overcome organizational sales barriers, shortenmore » selling cycles, reduce sales expense, increase revenue and enhance customer loyalty.« less
Decisions, Decisions....

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

White, Owen Roberts

1985-01-01

The author reviews systems providing objective guidelines to facilitate ongoing, daily instructional decisions, focusing on those which utilize the sensitive datum and uniform charting procedures of precision teaching. Potential users are warned that the special education teacher must remain a critical and vigilant analyst of the learning process.…
A Predictive Algorithm to Detect Opioid Use Disorder

PubMed Central

Lee, Chee; Sharma, Maneesh; Kantorovich, Svetlana

2018-01-01

Purpose: The purpose of this study was to determine the clinical utility of an algorithm-based decision tool designed to assess risk associated with opioid use in the primary care setting. Methods: A prospective, longitudinal study was conducted to assess the utility of precision medicine testing in 1822 patients across 18 family medicine/primary care clinics in the United States. Using the profile, patients were categorized into low, moderate, and high risk for opioid use. Physicians who ordered testing were asked to complete patient evaluations and document their actions, decisions, and perceptions regarding the utility of the precision medicine tests. Results: Approximately 47% of primary care physicians surveyed used the profile to guide clinical decision-making. These physicians rated the benefit of the profile on patient care an average of 3.6 on a 5-point scale (1 indicating no benefit and 5 indicating significant benefit). Eighty-eight percent of all clinicians surveyed felt the test exhibited some benefit to their patient care. The most frequent utilization for the profile was to guide a change in opioid prescribed. Physicians reported greater benefit of profile utilization for minority patients. Patients whose treatment was guided by the profile had pain levels that were reduced, on average, 2.7 levels on the numeric rating scale. Conclusions: The profile provided primary care physicians with a useful tool to stratify the risk of opioid use disorder and was rated as beneficial for decision-making and patient improvement by the majority of physicians surveyed. Physicians reported the profile resulted in greater clinical improvement for minorities, highlighting the objective use of this profile to guide judicial use of opioids in high-risk patients. Significantly, when physicians used the profile to guide treatment decisions, patient-reported pain was greatly reduced. PMID:29383324
The use of cost-utility analysis for the evaluation of caries prevention: an exploratory case study of two community-based public health interventions in a high-risk population in the UK.

PubMed

Kay, E; Owen, L; Taylor, M; Claxton, L; Sheppard, L

2018-03-01

Economic evaluations are important tools for decision makers to determine the best allocation of resources in a healthcare system. This study explored the use of economic evaluation in oral health promotion. A literature review identified oral health promotion programmes that measured both the health impact and costs of oral health interventions. A decision analysis model was constructed to examine the cost utility of preventing dental caries in 5 and 12-year-old children via tooth brushing schemes and fluoride varnish programmes. The costs per child that would be justified according to the National Institute for Health and Care Excellence's threshold of £20,000 per QALY were calculated. The analysis showed that NICE would consider that the expenditure of £55 per child on supervised tooth brushing, or £100 per child on fluoride varnish application would give sufficient health benefits to be justified according to their threshold. Greater attention needs to be paid to the collection of robust data on costs for oral health promotion. Dental researchers also urgently need to collect outcome data in a form that can be translated into a Quality of Life measure, so that the true cost effectiveness and value for money achieved through the prevention of dental disease can be recognised and compared to other allocations of resource. Copyright© 2018 Dennis Barber Ltd.
Cost-Utility of a Prognostic Test Guiding Adjuvant Chemotherapy Decisions in Early-Stage Non-Small Cell Lung Cancer.

PubMed

Stenehjem, David D; Bellows, Brandon K; Yager, Kraig M; Jones, Joshua; Kaldate, Rajesh; Siebert, Uwe; Brixner, Diana I

2016-02-01

A prognostic test was developed to guide adjuvant chemotherapy (ACT) decisions in early-stage non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC) adenocarcinomas. The objective of this study was to compare the cost-utility of the prognostic test to the current standard of care (SoC) in patients with early-stage NSCLC. Lifetime costs (2014 U.S. dollars) and effectiveness (quality-adjusted life-years [QALYs]) of ACT treatment decisions were examined using a Markov microsimulation model from a U.S. third-party payer perspective. Cancer stage distribution and probability of receiving ACT with the SoC were based on data from an academic cancer center. The probability of receiving ACT with the prognostic test was estimated from a physician survey. Risk classification was based on the 5-year predicted NSCLC-related mortality. Treatment benefit with ACT was based on the prognostic score. Discounting at a 3% annual rate was applied to costs and QALYs. Deterministic one-way and probabilistic sensitivity analyses examined parameter uncertainty. Lifetime costs and effectiveness were $137,403 and 5.45 QALYs with the prognostic test and $127,359 and 5.17 QALYs with the SoC. The resulting incremental cost-effectiveness ratio for the prognostic test versus the SoC was $35,867/QALY gained. One-way sensitivity analyses indicated the model was most sensitive to the utility of patients without recurrence after ACT and the ACT treatment benefit. Probabilistic sensitivity analysis indicated the prognostic test was cost-effective in 65.5% of simulations at a willingness to pay of $50,000/QALY. The study suggests using a prognostic test to guide ACT decisions in early-stage NSCLC is potentially cost-effective compared with using the SoC based on globally accepted willingness-to-pay thresholds. Providing prognostic information to decision makers may help some patients with high-risk early stage non-small cell lung cancer receive appropriate adjuvant chemotherapy while avoiding the associated toxicities and costs in patients with low-risk disease. This study used an economic model to assess the effectiveness and costs associated with using a prognostic test to guide adjuvant chemotherapy decisions compared with the current standard of care in patients with non-small cell lung cancer. When compared with current standard care, the prognostic test was potentially cost effective at commonly accepted thresholds in the U.S. This study can be used to help inform decision makers who are considering using prognostic tests. ©AlphaMed Press.
Fair lineups are better than biased lineups and showups, but not because they increase underlying discriminability.

PubMed

Smith, Andrew M; Wells, Gary L; Lindsay, R C L; Penrod, Steven D

2017-04-01

Receiver Operating Characteristic (ROC) analysis has recently come in vogue for assessing the underlying discriminability and the applied utility of lineup procedures. Two primary assumptions underlie recommendations that ROC analysis be used to assess the applied utility of lineup procedures: (a) ROC analysis of lineups measures underlying discriminability, and (b) the procedure that produces superior underlying discriminability produces superior applied utility. These same assumptions underlie a recently derived diagnostic-feature detection theory, a theory of discriminability, intended to explain recent patterns observed in ROC comparisons of lineups. We demonstrate, however, that these assumptions are incorrect when ROC analysis is applied to lineups. We also demonstrate that a structural phenomenon of lineups, differential filler siphoning, and not the psychological phenomenon of diagnostic-feature detection, explains why lineups are superior to showups and why fair lineups are superior to biased lineups. In the process of our proofs, we show that computational simulations have assumed, unrealistically, that all witnesses share exactly the same decision criteria. When criterial variance is included in computational models, differential filler siphoning emerges. The result proves dissociation between ROC curves and underlying discriminability: Higher ROC curves for lineups than for showups and for fair than for biased lineups despite no increase in underlying discriminability. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2017 APA, all rights reserved).
The HTA Risk Analysis Chart: Visualising the Need for and Potential Value of Managed Entry Agreements in Health Technology Assessment.

PubMed

Grimm, Sabine Elisabeth; Strong, Mark; Brennan, Alan; Wailoo, Allan J

2017-12-01

Recent changes to the regulatory landscape of pharmaceuticals may sometimes require reimbursement authorities to issue guidance on technologies that have a less mature evidence base. Decision makers need to be aware of risks associated with such health technology assessment (HTA) decisions and the potential to manage this risk through managed entry agreements (MEAs). This work develops methods for quantifying risk associated with specific MEAs and for clearly communicating this to decision makers. We develop the 'HTA risk analysis chart', in which we present the payer strategy and uncertainty burden (P-SUB) as a measure of overall risk. The P-SUB consists of the payer uncertainty burden (PUB), the risk stemming from decision uncertainty as to which is the truly optimal technology from the relevant set of technologies, and the payer strategy burden (PSB), the additional risk of approving a technology that is not expected to be optimal. We demonstrate the approach using three recent technology appraisals from the UK National Institute for Health and Clinical Excellence (NICE), each of which considered a price-based MEA. The HTA risk analysis chart was calculated using results from standard probabilistic sensitivity analyses. In all three HTAs, the new interventions were associated with substantial risk as measured by the P-SUB. For one of these technologies, the P-SUB was reduced to zero with the proposed price reduction, making this intervention cost effective with near complete certainty. For the other two, the risk reduced substantially with a much reduced PSB and a slightly increased PUB. The HTA risk analysis chart shows the risk that the healthcare payer incurs under unresolved decision uncertainty and when considering recommending a technology that is not expected to be optimal given current evidence. This allows the simultaneous consideration of financial and data-collection MEA schemes in an easily understood format. The use of HTA risk analysis charts will help to ensure that MEAs are considered within a standard utility-maximising health economic decision-making framework.
A Predictive Analysis of the Department of Defense Distribution System Utilizing Random Forests

DTIC Science & Technology

2016-06-01

resources capable of meeting both customer and individual resource constraints and goals while also maximizing the global benefit to the supply...and probability rules to determine the optimal red wine distribution network for an Italian-based wine producer. The decision support model for...combinations of factors that will result in delivery of the highest quality wines . The model’s first stage inputs basic logistics information to look

Some links on this page may take you to non-federal websites. Their policies may differ from this site.