Economic and environmental assessment of cellulosic ethanol production scenarios annexed to a typical sugar mill.

PubMed

Ali Mandegari, Mohsen; Farzad, Somayeh; Görgens, Johann F

2017-01-01

In this work different biorefinery scenarios were investigated, concerning the co-production of bioethanol and electricity from available lignocellulose at a typical sugar mill, as possible extensions to the current combustion of bagasse for steam and electricity production and burning trash on-filed. In scenario 1, the whole bagasse and brown leaves is utilized in a biorefinery and coal is burnt in the existing inefficient sugar mill boiler. Scenario 2 & 3 are assumed with a new centralized CHP unit without/with coal co-combustion, respectively. Also, through scenarios 4 & 5, the effect of water insoluble loading were studied. All scenarios provided energy for the sugarmill and the ethanol plant, with the export of surplus electricity. Economic analysis determined that scenario 1 was the most viable scenario due to less capital cost and economies-of scale. Based on Life Cycle Assessment (LCA) results, scenario 2 outperformed the other scenarios, while three scenarios showed lower contribution to environmental burdens than the current situation. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Novel hybrid linear stochastic with non-linear extreme learning machine methods for forecasting monthly rainfall a tropical climate.

PubMed

Zeynoddin, Mohammad; Bonakdari, Hossein; Azari, Arash; Ebtehaj, Isa; Gharabaghi, Bahram; Riahi Madavar, Hossein

2018-09-15

A novel hybrid approach is presented that can more accurately predict monthly rainfall in a tropical climate by integrating a linear stochastic model with a powerful non-linear extreme learning machine method. This new hybrid method was then evaluated by considering four general scenarios. In the first scenario, the modeling process is initiated without preprocessing input data as a base case. While in other three scenarios, the one-step and two-step procedures are utilized to make the model predictions more precise. The mentioned scenarios are based on a combination of stationarization techniques (i.e., differencing, seasonal and non-seasonal standardization and spectral analysis), and normality transforms (i.e., Box-Cox, John and Draper, Yeo and Johnson, Johnson, Box-Cox-Mod, log, log standard, and Manly). In scenario 2, which is a one-step scenario, the stationarization methods are employed as preprocessing approaches. In scenario 3 and 4, different combinations of normality transform, and stationarization methods are considered as preprocessing techniques. In total, 61 sub-scenarios are evaluated resulting 11013 models (10785 linear methods, 4 nonlinear models, and 224 hybrid models are evaluated). The uncertainty of the linear, nonlinear and hybrid models are examined by Monte Carlo technique. The best preprocessing technique is the utilization of Johnson normality transform and seasonal standardization (respectively) (R 2  = 0.99; RMSE = 0.6; MAE = 0.38; RMSRE = 0.1, MARE = 0.06, UI = 0.03 &UII = 0.05). The results of uncertainty analysis indicated the good performance of proposed technique (d-factor = 0.27; 95PPU = 83.57). Moreover, the results of the proposed methodology in this study were compared with an evolutionary hybrid of adaptive neuro fuzzy inference system (ANFIS) with firefly algorithm (ANFIS-FFA) demonstrating that the new hybrid methods outperformed ANFIS-FFA method. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Nuclear power for the future: Implications of some crisis scenarios

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Turner, K.H.

1996-12-31

As energy issues have dropped from public awareness, electricity demand growth has remained low, deregulation has destabilized the utility decision process, and least-cost regulation has pointed utilities to gas-fired plants for those additions that are coming on-line, the nuclear power industry has begun to ask the question: What will cause nuclear energy to again compete as an option in new, domestic generating capacity additions? Since virtually all of today`s corporate and societal decisions are driven by short-term factors, the preceding question can be translated into: What crisis might occur that would project nuclear as the solution to an immediately perceivedmore » problem? Thus, an examination of scenarios that would project nuclear power into the country`s immediate consciousness is in order, along with an analysis of the implications for and challenges to the nuclear industry resulting therefrom. This paper undertakes such an analysis.« less

The Impact of Utility Tariff Evolution on Behind-the-Meter PV Adoption

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Cole, Wesley J; Gagnon, Pieter J; Frew, Bethany A

This analysis uses a new method to link the NREL Regional Energy Deployment System (ReEDS) capacity expansion model with the NREL distributed generation market demand model (dGen) to explore the impact that the evolution of retail electricity tariffs can have on the adoption of distributed photovoltaics (DPV). The evolution most notably takes the form of decreased mid-day electricity costs, as low-cost PV reduces the marginal cost of electricity during those hours and the changes are subsequently communicated to electricity consumers through tariffs. We find that even under the low PV prices of the new SunShot targets the financial performance ofmore » DPV under evolved tariffs still motivates behind-the-meter adoption, despite significant reduction in the costs of electricity during afternoon periods driven by deployment of cheap utility-scale PV. The amount of DPV in 2050 in these low-cost futures ranged from 206 GW to 263 GW, a 13-fold and 16-fold increase over 2016 adoption levels respectively. From a utility planner's perspective, the representation of tariff evolution has noteworthy impacts on forecasted DPV adoption in scenarios with widespread time-of-use tariffs. Scenarios that projected adoption under a portfolio of time-of-use tariffs, but did not represent the evolution of those tariffs, predicted up to 36 percent more DPV in 2050, compared to scenarios that did not represent that evolution. Lastly, we find that a reduction in DPV deployment resulting from evolved tariffs had a negligible impact on the total generation from PV - both utility-scale and distributed - in the scenarios we examined. Any reduction in DPV generation was replaced with utility-scale PV generation, to arrive at the quantity that makes up the least-cost portfolio.« less

WE-G-BRA-07: Analyzing the Safety Implications of a Brachytherapy Process Improvement Project Utilizing a Novel System-Theory-Based Hazard-Analysis Technique

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Tang, A; Samost, A; Viswanathan, A

Purpose: To investigate the hazards in cervical-cancer HDR brachytherapy using a novel hazard-analysis technique, System Theoretic Process Analysis (STPA). The applicability and benefit of STPA to the field of radiation oncology is demonstrated. Methods: We analyzed the tandem and ring HDR procedure through observations, discussions with physicists and physicians, and the use of a previously developed process map. Controllers and their respective control actions were identified and arranged into a hierarchical control model of the system, modeling the workflow from applicator insertion through initiating treatment delivery. We then used the STPA process to identify potentially unsafe control actions. Scenarios weremore » then generated from the identified unsafe control actions and used to develop recommendations for system safety constraints. Results: 10 controllers were identified and included in the final model. From these controllers 32 potentially unsafe control actions were identified, leading to more than 120 potential accident scenarios, including both clinical errors (e.g., using outdated imaging studies for planning), and managerial-based incidents (e.g., unsafe equipment, budget, or staffing decisions). Constraints identified from those scenarios include common themes, such as the need for appropriate feedback to give the controllers an adequate mental model to maintain safe boundaries of operations. As an example, one finding was that the likelihood of the potential accident scenario of the applicator breaking during insertion might be reduced by establishing a feedback loop of equipment-usage metrics and equipment-failure reports to the management controller. Conclusion: The utility of STPA in analyzing system hazards in a clinical brachytherapy system was demonstrated. This technique, rooted in system theory, identified scenarios both technical/clinical and managerial in nature. These results suggest that STPA can be successfully used to analyze safety in brachytherapy and may prove to be an alternative to other hazard analysis techniques.« less

The use of scenarios for long-range planning by investor-owned electric utilities in the Pacific Northwest

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lyons, John V.

Scenario planning is a method of organizing and understanding large amounts of quantitative and qualitative data for leaders to make better strategic decisions. There is a lack of academic research about scenario planning with a subsequent shortage of definitions and theories. This study utilized a case study methodology to analyze scenario planning by investor-owned electric utilities in the Pacific Northwest in their integrated resource planning (IRP) process. The cases include Avista Corporation, Idaho Power, PacifiCorp, Portland General Electric, and Puget Sound Energy. This study sought to determine how scenario planning was used, what scenario approach was used, the scenario outcomes, and the similarities and differences in the scenario planning processes. The literature review of this study covered the development of scenario planning, common definitions and theories, approaches to scenario development, and scenario outcomes. A research methodology was developed to classify the scenario development approach into intuitive, hybrid, or quantitative approaches; and scenario outcomes of changed thinking, stories of plausible futures, improved decision making, and enhanced organizational learning. The study found all three forms of scenario planning in the IRPs. All of the cases used a similar approach to IRP development. All of the cases had at least improved decision making as an outcome of scenario planning. Only one case demonstrated all four scenario outcomes. A critical finding was a correlation between the use of the intuitive approach and the use of all scenario outcomes. Another major finding was the unique use of predetermined elements, which are normally consistent across scenarios, but became critical uncertainties in some of the scenarios in the cases for this study. This finding will need to be confirmed by future research as unique to the industry or an aberration. An unusually high number of scenarios were found for cases using the hybrid approach, which was unexpected based on the literature. This work expanded the methods for studying scenario planning, enhanced the body of scholarly works on scenario planning, and provided a starting point for additional research concerning the use of scenario planning by electric utilities.

RE Data Explorer: Informing Variable Renewable Energy Grid Integration for Low Emission Development

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Cox, Sarah L

The RE Data Explorer, developed by the National Renewable Energy Laboratory, is an innovative web-based analysis tool that utilizes geospatial and spatiotemporal renewable energy data to visualize, execute, and support analysis of renewable energy potential under various user-defined scenarios. This analysis can inform high-level prospecting, integrated planning, and policy making to enable low emission development.

Life cycle analysis of pistachio production in Greece.

PubMed

Bartzas, Georgios; Komnitsas, Kostas

2017-10-01

In the present paper, a life cycle assessment (LCA) study regarding pistachio (Pistacia vera L.) cultivation in Aegina island, Greece, was performed to evaluate the energy use footprint and the associated environmental impacts. In this context, a detailed life cycle inventory was created based on site-survey data and used for a holistic cradle-to-farm gate LCA analysis using the GaBi 6.5 software. The main impact categories assessed were acidification potential (AP), eutrophication potential (EP), global warming potential (GWP), ozone depletion potential (ODP), photochemical ozone creation potential (POCP) and cumulative energy demand (CED). In order to reveal the main environmental concerns pertinent to pistachio production and in turn propose measures for the reduction of environmental and energetic impacts, three scenarios were compared, namely the Baseline scenario (BS) that involves current cultivation practices, the Green Energy (GE) scenario that involves the use of biological fertilizers i.e. compost, and the Waste Utilization (WU) scenario that involves the production of biochar from pistachio and other agricultural wastes and its subsequent soil application to promote carbon sequestration and improve soil quality. Based on the results of this study, the use of compost for fertilization (GE scenario), which results in approximately 9% savings in terms of energy consumption and the five environmental impact categories studied compared to BS scenario, is considered a promising alternative cultivation strategy. Slightly higher savings (10% on average) in terms of the five calculated environmental impact categories, compared to the BS scenario, were indicated when the WU scenario was considered. Regarding energy consumption, the WU scenario results in minor increase, 3%, compared to the BS scenario. Results of uncertainty analysis performed using the Monte Carlo technique and contribution analysis showed that GE and WU scenarios offer reliable and significant eco-profile improvements for pistachio production in the study area compared to the current situation. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

The impact of retail electricity tariff evolution on solar photovoltaic deployment

DOE PAGES

Gagnon, Pieter; Cole, Wesley J.; Frew, Bethany; ...

2017-11-10

Here, this analysis explores the impact that the evolution of retail electricity tariffs can have on the deployment of solar photovoltaics. It suggests that ignoring the evolution of tariffs resulted in up to a 36% higher prediction of the capacity of distributed PV in 2050, compared to scenarios that represented tariff evolution. Critically, the evolution of tariffs had a negligible impact on the total generation from PV $-$ both utility-scale and distributed $-$ in the scenarios that were examined.

The impact of retail electricity tariff evolution on solar photovoltaic deployment

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Gagnon, Pieter; Cole, Wesley J.; Frew, Bethany

Here, this analysis explores the impact that the evolution of retail electricity tariffs can have on the deployment of solar photovoltaics. It suggests that ignoring the evolution of tariffs resulted in up to a 36% higher prediction of the capacity of distributed PV in 2050, compared to scenarios that represented tariff evolution. Critically, the evolution of tariffs had a negligible impact on the total generation from PV $-$ both utility-scale and distributed $-$ in the scenarios that were examined.

Perspectives on the future of the electric utility industry

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Tonn, B.; Schaffhauser, A.

1994-04-01

This report offers perspectives on the future of the electric utility industry. These perspectives will be used in further research to assess the prospects for Integrated Resource Planning (IRP). The perspectives are developed first by examining economic, political and regulatory, societal, technological, and environmental trends that are (1) national and global in scope and (2) directly related to the electric utility industry. Major national and global trends include increasing global economic competition, increasing political and ethnic strife, rapidly changing technologies, and increasing worldwide concern about the environment. Major trends in the utility industry include increasing competition in generation; changing patternsmore » of electricity demand; increasing use of information technology to control power systems; and increasing implementation of environmental controls. Ways in which the national and global trends may directly affect the utility industry are also explored. The trends are used to construct three global and national scenarios- ``business as usual,`` ``technotopia future,`` and ``fortress state`` -and three electric utility scenarios- ``frozen in headlights,`` ``megaelectric,`` and ``discomania.`` The scenarios are designed to be thought provoking descriptions of potential futures, not predictions of the future, although three key variables are identified that will have significant impacts on which future evolves-global climate change, utility technologies, and competition. While emphasis needs to be placed on understanding the electric utility scenarios, the interactions between the two sets of scenarios is also of interest.« less

Modeling of reverberant room responses for two-dimensional spatial sound field analysis and synthesis.

PubMed

Bai, Mingsian R; Li, Yi; Chiang, Yi-Hao

2017-10-01

A unified framework is proposed for analysis and synthesis of two-dimensional spatial sound field in reverberant environments. In the sound field analysis (SFA) phase, an unbaffled 24-element circular microphone array is utilized to encode the sound field based on the plane-wave decomposition. Depending on the sparsity of the sound sources, the SFA stage can be implemented in two manners. For sparse-source scenarios, a one-stage algorithm based on compressive sensing algorithm is utilized. Alternatively, a two-stage algorithm can be used, where the minimum power distortionless response beamformer is used to localize the sources and Tikhonov regularization algorithm is used to extract the source amplitudes. In the sound field synthesis (SFS), a 32-element rectangular loudspeaker array is employed to decode the target sound field using pressure matching technique. To establish the room response model, as required in the pressure matching step of the SFS phase, an SFA technique for nonsparse-source scenarios is utilized. Choice of regularization parameters is vital to the reproduced sound field. In the SFS phase, three SFS approaches are compared in terms of localization performance and voice reproduction quality. Experimental results obtained in a reverberant room are presented and reveal that an accurate room response model is vital to immersive rendering of the reproduced sound field.

Dynamic metabolism modelling of urban water services--demonstrating effectiveness as a decision-support tool for Oslo, Norway.

PubMed

Venkatesh, G; Sægrov, Sveinung; Brattebø, Helge

2014-09-15

Urban water services are challenged from many perspectives and different stakeholders demand performance improvements along economic, social and environmental dimensions of sustainability. In response, urban water utilities systematically give more attention to criteria such as water safety, climate change adaptation and mitigation, environmental life cycle assessment (LCA), total cost efficiency, and on how to improve their operations within the water-energy-carbon nexus. The authors of this paper collaborated in the development of a 'Dynamic Metabolism Model' (DMM). The model is developed for generic use in the sustainability assessment of urban water services, and it has been initially tested for the city of Oslo, Norway. The purpose has been to adopt a holistic systemic perspective to the analysis of metabolism and environmental impacts of resource flows in urban water and wastewater systems, in order to offer a tool for the examination of future strategies and intervention options in such systems. This paper describes the model and its application to the city of Oslo for the analysis time period 2013-2040. The external factors impacting decision-making and interventions are introduced along with realistic scenarios developed for the testing, after consultation with officials at the Oslo Water and Wastewater Works (Norway). Possible interventions that the utility intends to set in motion are defined and numerically interpreted for incorporation into the model, and changes in the indicator values over the time period are determined. This paper aims to demonstrate the effectiveness and usefulness of the DMM, as a decision-support tool for water-wastewater utilities. The scenarios considered and interventions identified do not include all possible scenarios and interventions that can be relevant for water-wastewater utilities. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

An index-based robust decision making framework for watershed management in a changing climate.

PubMed

Kim, Yeonjoo; Chung, Eun-Sung

2014-03-01

This study developed an index-based robust decision making framework for watershed management dealing with water quantity and quality issues in a changing climate. It consists of two parts of management alternative development and analysis. The first part for alternative development consists of six steps: 1) to understand the watershed components and process using HSPF model, 2) to identify the spatial vulnerability ranking using two indices: potential streamflow depletion (PSD) and potential water quality deterioration (PWQD), 3) to quantify the residents' preferences on water management demands and calculate the watershed evaluation index which is the weighted combinations of PSD and PWQD, 4) to set the quantitative targets for water quantity and quality, 5) to develop a list of feasible alternatives and 6) to eliminate the unacceptable alternatives. The second part for alternative analysis has three steps: 7) to analyze all selected alternatives with a hydrologic simulation model considering various climate change scenarios, 8) to quantify the alternative evaluation index including social and hydrologic criteria with utilizing multi-criteria decision analysis methods and 9) to prioritize all options based on a minimax regret strategy for robust decision. This framework considers the uncertainty inherent in climate models and climate change scenarios with utilizing the minimax regret strategy, a decision making strategy under deep uncertainty and thus this procedure derives the robust prioritization based on the multiple utilities of alternatives from various scenarios. In this study, the proposed procedure was applied to the Korean urban watershed, which has suffered from streamflow depletion and water quality deterioration. Our application shows that the framework provides a useful watershed management tool for incorporating quantitative and qualitative information into the evaluation of various policies with regard to water resource planning and management. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Multi-spatial analysis of forest residue utilization for bioenergy

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Jacobson, Ryan A.; Keefe, Robert F.; Smith, Alistair M. S.

2016-06-17

The alternative energy sector is expanding quickly in the USA since passage of the Energy Policy Act of 2005 and the Energy Independence and Security Act of 2007. Increased interest in wood-based bioenergy has led to the need for robust modeling methods to analyze woody biomass operations at landscape scales. However, analyzing woody biomass operations in regions like the US Inland Northwest is difficult due to highly variable terrain and wood characteristics. We developed the Forest Residue Economic Assessment Model (FREAM) to better integrate with Geographical Information Systems and overcome analytical modeling limitations. FREAM analyzes wood-based bioenergy logistics systems andmore » provides a modeling platform that can be readily modified to analyze additional study locations. We evaluated three scenarios to test the FREAM's utility: a local-scale scenario in which a catalytic pyrolysis process produces gasoline from 181 437 Mg yr-1 of forest residues, a regional-scale scenario that assumes a biochemical process to create aviation fuel from 725 748 Mg yr-1 of forest residues, and an international scenario that assumes a pellet mill producing pellets for international markets from 272 155 Mg yr-1 of forest residues. The local scenario produced gasoline for a modeled cost of $22.33 GJ-1*, the regional scenario produced aviation fuel for a modeled cost of $35.83 GJ-1 and the international scenario produced pellets for a modeled cost of $10.51 GJ-1. Results show that incorporating input from knowledgeable stakeholders in the designing of a model yields positive results.« less

Advanced development of atmospheric models. [SEASAT Program support

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kesel, P. G.; Langland, R. A.; Stephens, P. L.; Welleck, R. E.; Wolff, P. M.

1979-01-01

A set of atmospheric analysis and prediction models was developed in support of the SEASAT Program existing objective analysis models which utilize a 125x125 polar stereographic grid of the Northern Hemisphere, which were modified in order to incorporate and assess the impact of (real or simulated) satellite data in the analysis of a two-day meteorological scenario in January 1979. Program/procedural changes included: (1) a provision to utilize winds in the sea level pressure and multi-level height analyses (1000-100 MBS); (2) The capability to perform a pre-analysis at two control levels (1000 MBS and 250 MBS); (3) a greater degree of wind- and mass-field coupling, especially at these controls levels; (4) an improved facility to bogus the analyses based on results of the preanalysis; and (5) a provision to utilize (SIRS) satellite thickness values and cloud motion vectors in the multi-level height analysis.

How Do Land-Use and Climate Change Affect Watershed Health? A Scenario-Based Analysis

EPA Science Inventory

With the growing emphasis on biofuel crops and potential impacts of climate variability and change, there is a need to quantify their effects on hydrological processes for developing watershed management plans. Environmental consequences are currently estimated by utilizing comp...

Assessment of seismic risk in Tashkent, Uzbekistan and Bishkek, Kyrgyz Republic

USGS Publications Warehouse

Erdik, M.; Rashidov, T.; Safak, E.; Turdukulov, A.

2005-01-01

The impact of earthquakes in urban centers prone to disastrous earthquakes necessitates the analysis of associated risk for rational formulation of contingency plans and mitigation strategies. In urban centers the seismic risk is best quantified and portrayed through the preparation of 'Earthquake damage and Loss Scenarios'. The components of such scenarios are the assessment of the hazard, inventories and the vulnerabilities of elements at risk. For the development of earthquake risk scenario in Tashkent-Uzbekistan and Bishkek-Kyrgyzstan an approach based on spectral displacements is utilized. This paper will present the important features of a comprehensive study, highlight the methodology, discuss the results and provide insights to the future developments. ?? 2005 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Unmanned and Unattended Response Capability for Homeland Defense

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

BENNETT, PHIL C.

2002-11-01

An analysis was conducted of the potential for unmanned and unattended robotic technologies for forward-based, immediate response capabilities that enables access and controlled task performance. The authors analyze high-impact response scenarios in conjunction with homeland security organizations, such as the NNSA Office of Emergency Response, the FBI, the National Guard, and the Army Technical Escort Unit, to cover a range of radiological, chemical and biological threats. They conducted an analysis of the potential of forward-based, unmanned and unattended robotic technologies to accelerate and enhance emergency and crisis response by Homeland Defense organizations. Response systems concepts were developed utilizing new technologiesmore » supported by existing emerging threats base technologies to meet the defined response scenarios. These systems will pre-position robotic and remote sensing capabilities stationed close to multiple sites for immediate action. Analysis of assembled systems included experimental activities to determine potential efficacy in the response scenarios, and iteration on systems concepts and remote sensing and robotic technologies, creating new immediate response capabilities for Homeland Defense.« less

Technology assessment of solar energy utilization

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jaeger, F.

1985-11-01

The general objectives and methods of Technology Assessment (TA) are outlined. Typical analysis steps of a TA for solar energy are reviewed: description of the technology and its further development; identification of impact areas; analysis of boundary conditions and definition of scenarios; market penetration of solar technologies; projection of consequences in areas of impact; and assessment of impacts and identification of options for action.

Banking or Bankrupting: Strategies for Sustaining the Economic Future of Public Cord Blood Banks.

PubMed

Magalon, Jeremy; Maiers, Martin; Kurtzberg, Joanne; Navarrete, Cristina; Rubinstein, Pablo; Brown, Colin; Schramm, Catherine; Larghero, Jérome; Katsahian, Sandrine; Chabannon, Christian; Picard, Christophe; Platz, Alexander; Schmidt, Alexander; Katz, Gregory

2015-01-01

Cord blood is an important source of stem cells. However, nearly 90% of public cord blood banks have declared that they are struggling to maintain their financial sustainability and avoid bankruptcy. The objective of this study is to evaluate how characteristics of cord blood units influence their utilization, then use this information to model the economic viability and therapeutic value of different banking strategies. Retrospective analysis of cord blood data registered between January 1st, 2009 and December 31st, 2011 in Bone Marrow Donor Worldwide. Data were collected from four public banks in France, Germany and the USA. Samples were eligible for inclusion in the analysis if data on cord blood and maternal HLA typing and biological characteristics after processing were available (total nucleated and CD34+ cell counts). 9,396 banked cord blood units were analyzed, of which 5,815 were Caucasian in origin. A multivariate logistic regression model assessed the influence of three parameters on the CBU utilization rate: ethnic background, total nucleated and CD34+ cell counts. From this model, we elaborated a Utilization Score reflecting the probability of transplantation for each cord blood unit. We stratified three Utilization Score thresholds representing four different banking strategies, from the least selective (scenario A) to the most selective (scenario D). We measured the cost-effectiveness ratio for each strategy by comparing performance in terms of number of transplanted cord blood units and level of financial deficit. When comparing inputs and outputs over three years, Scenario A represented the most extreme case as it delivered the highest therapeutic value for patients (284 CBUs transplanted) along with the highest financial deficit (USD 5.89 million). We found that scenario C resulted in 219 CBUs transplanted with a limited deficit (USD 0.98 million) that charities and public health could realistically finance over the long term. We also found that using a pre-freezing level of 18 x 10(8) TNC would be the most cost-effective strategy for a public bank. Our study shows that a swift transition from strategy A to C can play a vital role in preventing public cord blood banks worldwide from collapsing.

A fine structure genetic analysis evaluating ecoregional adaptability of a Bos taurus breed (Hereford)

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Ecoregional differences contribute to genetic environmental interactions and impact animal performance. These differences may become more important under climate change scenarios. Utilizing genetic diversity within a species to address such problems has not been fully explored. In this study Herefor...

Human Factors Evaluation of Advanced Electric Power Grid Visualization Tools

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Greitzer, Frank L.; Dauenhauer, Peter M.; Wierks, Tamara G.

This report describes initial human factors evaluation of four visualization tools (Graphical Contingency Analysis, Force Directed Graphs, Phasor State Estimator and Mode Meter/ Mode Shapes) developed by PNNL, and proposed test plans that may be implemented to evaluate their utility in scenario-based experiments.

The power of hope: being a doctor is more than relying solely on the numbers.

PubMed

Godshalk, A N; Brown, G C; Brown, H C; Brown, M M

2008-06-01

To ascertain whether a physician's positive or negative attitude significantly impacts the quality of life of ophthalmic patients. A standardised, validated, time trade-off, utility instrument was administered to consecutive vitreoretinal patients by interview to assess the quality of life associated with their current ocular health state (baseline scenario). Each was then given a scenario for the exact same health state with the same long-term prognosis in which their doctor emphasised the possible negative consequences (bad-news scenario) and one for the same health state in which their doctor emphasised the positive consequences (good-news scenario). Among the 247 patients enrolled were 140 women (57%) and 107 men (43%) with a mean age of 66 years and a mean educational level of 13.8 years after kindergarten. The mean baseline utility for 247 patients was 0.87 (SD = 0.19; 95% CI 0.84 to 0.89). The mean bad-news scenario utility was 0.80 (SD = 0.22, 95% CI 0.78 to 0.83), a 70% diminution in quality of life compared with the mean baseline utility (p = 0.0009). The mean good-news scenario utility was 0.89 (SD = 0.18, 95% CI 0.86 to 0.91), an insignificant difference compared with the mean baseline utility (p = 0.26). Ocular patients had a considerably poorer quality of life when their physician emphasised the possible negative consequences associated with their eye disease(s), as opposed to a more positive approach. While at times necessary, a negative emphasis approach can theoretically result in a considerable loss of life's value.

The Role of the National Defense Stockpile in the Supply of Strategic and Critical Materials

DTIC Science & Technology

2008-05-09

Insurance Trust Fund and the Federal Supplementary Medical Trust Fund.53 12 Analysis of NDS Operations and Alternatives The current method of determining...requirements are based upon analysis of military, industrial, and essential civilian materials needs in light of conflict scenarios found in the National...Defense Strategy. The bulk of this analysis is done utilizing computer modeling. First, the model projects the needs for finished products and services

Multistage Deployment of the Army Theater Hospital

DTIC Science & Technology

2013-12-01

analysis on the effects warfare tactics, casualty timing, and casualty types had on the medical treatment facility (Cecchine et al., 2001). This proved...the 44-bed mobile portion of the current CSH was potentially inadequate to support approximately four brigades in an asymmetrical warfare scenario...systems and its increased force effectiveness on the fleet. He utilized quantitative analysis with Lanchester and Hughes-Salvo models to show that

Hypothetical scenario exercises to improve planning and readiness for drinking water quality management during extreme weather events.

PubMed

Deere, Daniel; Leusch, Frederic D L; Humpage, Andrew; Cunliffe, David; Khan, Stuart J

2017-03-15

Two hypothetical scenario exercises were designed and conducted to reflect the increasingly extreme weather-related challenges faced by water utilities as the global climate changes. The first event was based on an extreme flood scenario. The second scenario involved a combination of weather events, including a wild forest fire ('bushfire') followed by runoff due to significant rainfall. For each scenario, a panel of diverse personnel from water utilities and relevant agencies (e.g. health departments) formed a hypothetical water utility and associated regulatory body to manage water quality following the simulated extreme weather event. A larger audience participated by asking questions and contributing key insights. Participants were confronted with unanticipated developments as the simulated scenarios unfolded, introduced by a facilitator. Participants were presented with information that may have challenged their conventional experiences regarding operational procedures in order to identify limitations in current procedures, assumptions, and readily available information. The process worked toward the identification of a list of specific key lessons for each event. At the conclusion of each simulation a facilitated discussion was used to establish key lessons of value to water utilities in preparing them for similar future extreme events. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Surgical management of bilateral vocal fold paralysis: A cost-effectiveness comparison of two treatments.

PubMed

Naunheim, Matthew R; Song, Phillip C; Franco, Ramon A; Alkire, Blake C; Shrime, Mark G

2017-03-01

Endoscopic management of bilateral vocal fold paralysis (BVFP) includes cordotomy and arytenoidectomy, and has become a well-accepted alternative to tracheostomy. However, the costs and quality-of-life benefits of endoscopic management have not been examined with formal economic analysis. This study undertakes a cost-effectiveness analysis of tracheostomy versus endoscopic management of BVFP. Cost-effectiveness analysis. A literature review identified a range of costs and outcomes associated with surgical options for BVFP. Additional costs were derived from Medicare reimbursement data; all were adjusted to 2014 dollars. Cost-effectiveness analysis evaluated both therapeutic strategies in short-term and long-term scenarios. Probabilistic sensitivity analysis was used to assess confidence levels regarding the economic evaluation. The incremental cost effectiveness ratio for endoscopic management versus tracheostomy is $31,600.06 per quality-adjusted life year (QALY), indicating that endoscopic management is the cost-effective short-term strategy at a willingness-to-pay (WTP) threshold of $50,000/QALY. The probability that endoscopic management is more cost-effective than tracheostomy at this WTP is 65.1%. Threshold analysis demonstrated that the model is sensitive to both utilities and cost in the short-term scenario. When costs of long-term care are included, tracheostomy is dominated by endoscopic management, indicating the cost-effectiveness of endoscopic management at any WTP. Endoscopic management of BVFP appears to be more cost-effective than tracheostomy. Though endoscopic cordotomy and arytenoidectomy require expertise and specialized equipment, this model demonstrates utility gains and long-term cost advantages to an endoscopic strategy. These findings are limited by the relative paucity of robust utility data and emphasize the need for further economic analysis in otolaryngology. NA Laryngoscope, 127:691-697, 2017. © 2016 The American Laryngological, Rhinological and Otological Society, Inc.

Cost Utility Analysis of Topical Steroids Compared With Dietary Elimination for Treatment of Eosinophilic Esophagitis.

PubMed

Cotton, Cary C; Erim, Daniel; Eluri, Swathi; Palmer, Sarah H; Green, Daniel J; Wolf, W Asher; Runge, Thomas M; Wheeler, Stephanie; Shaheen, Nicholas J; Dellon, Evan S

2017-06-01

Topical corticosteroids or dietary elimination are recommended as first-line therapies for eosinophilic esophagitis, but data to directly compare these therapies are scant. We performed a cost utility comparison of topical corticosteroids and the 6-food elimination diet (SFED) in treatment of eosinophilic esophagitis, from the payer perspective. We used a modified Markov model based on current clinical guidelines, in which transition between states depended on histologic response simulated at the individual cohort-member level. Simulation parameters were defined by systematic review and meta-analysis to determine the base-case estimates and bounds of uncertainty for sensitivity analysis. Meta-regression models included adjustment for differences in study and cohort characteristics. In the base-case scenario, topical fluticasone was about as effective as SFED but more expensive at a 5-year time horizon ($9261.58 vs $5719.72 per person). SFED was more effective and less expensive than topical fluticasone and topical budesonide in the base-case scenario. Probabilistic sensitivity analysis revealed little uncertainty in relative treatment effectiveness. There was somewhat greater uncertainty in the relative cost of treatments; most simulations found SFED to be less expensive. In a cost utility analysis comparing topical corticosteroids and SFED for first-line treatment of eosinophilic esophagitis, the therapies were similar in effectiveness. SFED was on average less expensive, and more cost effective in most simulations, than topical budesonide and topical fluticasone, from a payer perspective and not accounting for patient-level costs or quality of life. Copyright © 2017 AGA Institute. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Decision support systems and methods for complex networks

DOEpatents

Huang, Zhenyu [Richland, WA; Wong, Pak Chung [Richland, WA; Ma, Jian [Richland, WA; Mackey, Patrick S [Richland, WA; Chen, Yousu [Richland, WA; Schneider, Kevin P [Seattle, WA

2012-02-28

Methods and systems for automated decision support in analyzing operation data from a complex network. Embodiments of the present invention utilize these algorithms and techniques not only to characterize the past and present condition of a complex network, but also to predict future conditions to help operators anticipate deteriorating and/or problem situations. In particular, embodiments of the present invention characterize network conditions from operation data using a state estimator. Contingency scenarios can then be generated based on those network conditions. For at least a portion of all of the contingency scenarios, risk indices are determined that describe the potential impact of each of those scenarios. Contingency scenarios with risk indices are presented visually as graphical representations in the context of a visual representation of the complex network. Analysis of the historical risk indices based on the graphical representations can then provide trends that allow for prediction of future network conditions.

Utility Estimation for Pediatric Vesicoureteral Reflux: Methodological Considerations Using an Online Survey Platform.

PubMed

Tejwani, Rohit; Wang, Hsin-Hsiao S; Lloyd, Jessica C; Kokorowski, Paul J; Nelson, Caleb P; Routh, Jonathan C

2017-03-01

The advent of online task distribution has opened a new avenue for efficiently gathering community perspectives needed for utility estimation. Methodological consensus for estimating pediatric utilities is lacking, with disagreement over whom to sample, what perspective to use (patient vs parent) and whether instrument induced anchoring bias is significant. We evaluated what methodological factors potentially impact utility estimates for vesicoureteral reflux. Cross-sectional surveys using a time trade-off instrument were conducted via the Amazon Mechanical Turk® (https://www.mturk.com) online interface. Respondents were randomized to answer questions from child, parent or dyad perspectives on the utility of a vesicoureteral reflux health state and 1 of 3 "warm-up" scenarios (paralysis, common cold, none) before a vesicoureteral reflux scenario. Utility estimates and potential predictors were fitted to a generalized linear model to determine what factors most impacted utilities. A total of 1,627 responses were obtained. Mean respondent age was 34.9 years. Of the respondents 48% were female, 38% were married and 44% had children. Utility values were uninfluenced by child/personal vesicoureteral reflux/urinary tract infection history, income or race. Utilities were affected by perspective and were higher in the child group (34% lower in parent vs child, p <0.001, and 13% lower in dyad vs child, p <0.001). Vesicoureteral reflux utility was not significantly affected by the presence or type of time trade-off warm-up scenario (p = 0.17). Time trade-off perspective affects utilities when estimated via an online interface. However, utilities are unaffected by the presence, type or absence of warm-up scenarios. These findings could have significant methodological implications for future utility elicitations regarding other pediatric conditions. Copyright © 2017 American Urological Association Education and Research, Inc. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Problem formulation in the environmental risk assessment for genetically modified plants

PubMed Central

Wolt, Jeffrey D.; Keese, Paul; Raybould, Alan; Burachik, Moisés; Gray, Alan; Olin, Stephen S.; Schiemann, Joachim; Sears, Mark; Wu, Felicia

2009-01-01

Problem formulation is the first step in environmental risk assessment (ERA) where policy goals, scope, assessment endpoints, and methodology are distilled to an explicitly stated problem and approach for analysis. The consistency and utility of ERAs for genetically modified (GM) plants can be improved through rigorous problem formulation (PF), producing an analysis plan that describes relevant exposure scenarios and the potential consequences of these scenarios. A properly executed PF assures the relevance of ERA outcomes for decision-making. Adopting a harmonized approach to problem formulation should bring about greater uniformity in the ERA process for GM plants among regulatory regimes globally. This paper is the product of an international expert group convened by the International Life Sciences Institute (ILSI) Research Foundation. PMID:19757133

Real-world and trial-based cost-effectiveness analysis of bevacizumab in HER2-negative metastatic breast cancer patients: a study of the Southeast Netherlands Breast Cancer Consortium.

PubMed

van Kampen, R J W; Ramaekers, B L T; Lobbezoo, D J A; de Boer, M; Dercksen, M W; van den Berkmortel, F; Smilde, T J; van de Wouw, A J; Peters, F P J; van Riel, J M G; Peters, N A J B; Tjan-Heijnen, V C G; Joore, M A

2017-07-01

The aim of our analysis was to assess the real-world cost-effectiveness of bevacizumab in addition to taxane treatment versus taxane monotherapy for HER2-negative metastatic breast cancer compared with the cost-effectiveness based on the efficacy results from a trial. A state transition model was built to estimate costs, life years (LYs) and quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) for both treatments. Two scenarios were examined: a real-world scenario and a trial-based scenario in which transition probabilities were primarily based on a real-world cohort study and the E2100 trial, respectively. In both scenarios, costs and utility parameter estimates were extracted from the real-world cohort study. Moreover, the Dutch health care perspective was adopted. In both the real-world and trial scenarios, bevacizumab-taxane is more expensive (incremental costs of €56,213 and €52,750, respectively) and more effective (incremental QALYs of 0.362 and 0.189, respectively) than taxane monotherapy. In the real-world scenario, bevacizumab-taxane compared to taxane monotherapy led to an incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) of €155,261 per QALY gained. In the trial scenario, the ICER amounted to €278,711 per QALY gained. According to the Dutch informal threshold, bevacizumab in addition to taxane treatment was not considered cost-effective for HER2-negative metastatic breast cancer both in a real-world and in a trial scenario. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

The effects of country-level population policy for enhancing adaptation to climate change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gunasekara, N. K.; Kazama, S.; Yamazaki, D.; Oki, T.

2012-08-01

The effectiveness of population policy scenarios in reducing the combined impacts of population change and climate change on water resources is explored. One no-policy scenario and two scenarios with population policy assumptions are employed in combination with water availability under the SRES scenarios A1b, B1 and A2 for the impact analysis. The population data used are from the World Bank. The river discharges per grid of horizontal resolution 0.5° are obtained from the Total Runoff Integrating Pathways (TRIP) of the University of Tokyo, Japan. Unlike the population scenarios utilized in the SRES emission scenarios and the newest Representative Concentration Pathways, the scenarios employed in this research are based, even after 2050, on country-level rather than regional growth assumptions. Our analysis implies that in combination with a more heterogeneous pattern of population changes across the world, a more convergent, environmentally friendly emissions scenario, such as B1, can result in a high-impact climate scenario, similar to A2, for the already water-stressed low latitudes. However, the effect of population change supersedes the changes in the climate scenarios. In 2100, Africa, Middle-East and parts of Asia are in extreme water-stress under all scenarios. For countries with high population momentum, the population policy scenario with fertility-reduction assumptions gained a maximum of 6.1 times the water availability in Niger and 5.3 times that in Uganda compared with the no-policy scenario. Most of these countries are in Sub-Saharan Africa. These countries represent 24.5% of the global population in the no-policy scenario and the scenario with fertility- reduction assumptions reduces it to 8.7% by 2100. This scenario is also effective at reducing the area under extreme water stress in these countries. However, the policy scenario with assumptions of population stabilization at the replacement fertility rate increases the water stress in high-latitude countries. Nevertheless, the impact is low due to the high per capita water availability in the region. This research is expected to widen the understanding of the combined impacts of climate change in the future and of the strategies needed to enhance the space for adaptation.

The development of multi-objective optimization model for excess bagasse utilization: A case study for Thailand

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Buddadee, Bancha; Wirojanagud, Wanpen; Watts, Daniel J.

In this paper, a multi-objective optimization model is proposed as a tool to assist in deciding for the proper utilization scheme of excess bagasse produced in sugarcane industry. Two major scenarios for excess bagasse utilization are considered in the optimization. The first scenario is the typical situation when excess bagasse is used for the onsite electricity production. In case of the second scenario, excess bagasse is processed for the offsite ethanol production. Then the ethanol is blended with an octane rating of 91 gasoline by a portion of 10% and 90% by volume respectively and the mixture is used asmore » alternative fuel for gasoline vehicles in Thailand. The model proposed in this paper called 'Environmental System Optimization' comprises the life cycle impact assessment of global warming potential (GWP) and the associated cost followed by the multi-objective optimization which facilitates in finding out the optimal proportion of the excess bagasse processed in each scenario. Basic mathematical expressions for indicating the GWP and cost of the entire process of excess bagasse utilization are taken into account in the model formulation and optimization. The outcome of this study is the methodology developed for decision-making concerning the excess bagasse utilization available in Thailand in view of the GWP and economic effects. A demonstration example is presented to illustrate the advantage of the methodology which may be used by the policy maker. The methodology developed is successfully performed to satisfy both environmental and economic objectives over the whole life cycle of the system. It is shown in the demonstration example that the first scenario results in positive GWP while the second scenario results in negative GWP. The combination of these two scenario results in positive or negative GWP depending on the preference of the weighting given to each objective. The results on economics of all scenarios show the satisfied outcomes.« less

Risks and crises for healthcare providers: the impact of cloud computing.

PubMed

Glasberg, Ronald; Hartmann, Michael; Draheim, Michael; Tamm, Gerrit; Hessel, Franz

2014-01-01

We analyze risks and crises for healthcare providers and discuss the impact of cloud computing in such scenarios. The analysis is conducted in a holistic way, taking into account organizational and human aspects, clinical, IT-related, and utilities-related risks as well as incorporating the view of the overall risk management.

Carbon abatement via treating the solid waste from the Australian olive industry in mobile pyrolysis units: LCA with uncertainty analysis.

PubMed

El Hanandeh, Ali

2013-04-01

The olive oil industry in Australia has been growing at a rapid rate over the past decade. It is forecast to continue growing due to the steady increase in demand for olive oil and olive products in the local and regional market. However, the olive oil extraction process generates large amounts of solid waste called olive husk which is currently underutilized. This paper uses life-cycle methodology to analyse the carbon emission reduction potential of utilizing olive husk as a feedstock in a mobile pyrolysis unit. Four scenarios, based on different combinations of pyrolysis technologies (slow versus fast) and end-use of products (land application versus energy utilization), are constructed. The performance of each scenario under conditions of uncertainty was also investigated. The results show that all scenarios result in significant carbon emission abatement. Processing olive husk in mobile fast pyrolysis units and the utilization of bio-oil and biochar as substitutes for heavy fuel oil and coal is likely to realize a carbon offset greater than 32.3 Gg CO2-eq annually in 90% of the time. Likewise, more than 3.2 Gg-C (11.8 Gg CO2-eq) per year could be sequestered in the soil in the form of fixed carbon if slow mobile pyrolysis units were used to produce biochar.

The utility of elementary school TOCA-R scores in identifying later criminal court violence among adolescent females.

PubMed

Petras, Hanno; Ialongo, Nicholas; Lambert, Sharon F; Barrueco, Sandra; Schaeffer, Cindy M; Chilcoat, Howard; Kellam, Sheppard

2005-08-01

To evaluate the utility of a teacher-rating instrument (Teacher Observation of Classroom Adaptation-Revised [TOCA-R]) of aggressive behavior during elementary school years in identifying girls at risk of later criminal court violence. A community epidemiological sample of 845 urban public school girls was rated at six time points during elementary school regarding their level of aggressive/disruptive behavior (75% of whom were African American). Criminal violence was measured using juvenile court records. Logistic regression was used to study the strength of the association between early indicators of aggressive behavior and adolescent females' violent outcomes. An extension of the traditional receiver operating characteristics analysis was used to study the accuracy of identifying girls at risk of violence under three different screening and intervention scenarios. For girls, teacher ratings of aggression were a strong and consistent predictor of later violence across grades 1-5 and were strongest in fifth grade. Three screening scenarios were compared to determine the optimal identification threshold. The screening scenario with a focus on minimizing false negatives yielded the highest value (kappa = 0.803). This study supports other studies indicating that early levels of aggressive behavior are strong and robust predictors of later violence among girls but are of limited utility in the early identification of girls at risk, especially when the focus is on reducing both false positives and negatives.

Coordinating water conservation efforts through tradable credits: A proof of concept for drought response in the San Francisco Bay area

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gonzales, Patricia; Ajami, Newsha; Sun, Yujie

2017-09-01

Water utilities are increasingly relying on water efficiency and conservation to extend the availability of supplies. Despite spatial and institutional interdependency of many utilities, these demand-side management initiatives have traditionally been tackled by individual utilities operating in isolation. In this study, we introduce a policy framework for water conservation credits that enables collaboration at the regional scale. Under the proposed approach, utilities have the flexibility to invest in water conservation measures that are appropriate for their specific service area. When utilities have insufficient capacity for local cost-effective measures, they may opt to purchase credits, contributing to fund subsidies for utilities that do have that capacity and can provide the credits, while the region as a whole benefits from more reliable water supplies. This work aims to provide insights on the potential impacts of a water conservation credit policy framework when utilities are given the option to collaborate in their efforts. We model utility decisions as rational cost-minimizing actors subject to different decision-making dynamics and water demand scenarios, and demonstrate the institutional characteristics needed for the proposed policy to be effective. We apply this model to a counterfactual case study of water utility members of the Bay Area Water Supply and Conservation Agency in California during the drought period of June 2015 to May 2016. Our scenario analysis indicates that when the institutional structure and incentives are appropriately defined, water agencies can achieve economic benefits from collaborating in their conservation efforts, especially if they coordinate more closely in their decision-making.

Technical Feasibility Assessment of Lunar Base Mission Scenarios

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Magelssen, Trygve ``Spike''; Sadeh, Eligar

2005-02-01

Investigation of the literature pertaining to lunar base (LB) missions and the technologies required for LB development has revealed an information gap that hinders technical feasibility assessment. This information gap is the absence of technical readiness levels (TRL) (Mankins, 1995) and information pertaining to the criticality of the critical enabling technologies (CETs) that enable mission success. TRL is a means of identifying technical readiness stages of a technology. Criticality is defined as the level of influence the CET has on the mission scenario. The hypothesis of this research study is that technical feasibility is a function of technical readiness and technical readiness is a function of criticality. A newly developed research analysis method is used to identify the technical feasibility of LB mission scenarios. A Delphi is used to ascertain technical readiness levels and CET criticality-to-mission. The research analysis method is applied to the Delphi results to determine the technical feasibility of the LB mission scenarios that include: observatory, science research, lunar settlement, space exploration gateway, space resource utilization, and space tourism. The CETs identified encompasses four major system level technologies of: transportation, life support, structures, and power systems. Results of the technical feasibility assessment show the observatory and science research LB mission scenarios to be more technical ready out of all the scenarios, but all mission scenarios are in very close proximity to each other in regard to criticality and TRL and no one mission scenario stands out as being absolutely more technically ready than any of the other scenarios. What is significant and of value are the Delphi results concerning CET criticality-to-mission and the TRL values evidenced in the Tables that can be used by anyone assessing the technical feasibility of LB missions.

Alternative scenarios utilizing nonterrestrial resources

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Eldred, Charles H.; Roberts, Barney B.

1992-01-01

A collection of alternative scenarios that are enabled or substantially enhanced by the utilization of nonterrestrial resources is provided. We take a generalized approach to scenario building so that our report will have value in the context of whatever goals are eventually chosen. Some of the topics covered include the following: lunar materials processing; asteroid mining; lunar resources; construction of a large solar power station; solar dynamic power for the space station; reduced gravity; mission characteristics and options; and tourism.

Analyses in support of risk-informed natural gas vehicle maintenance facility codes and standards :

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Ekoto, Isaac W.; Blaylock, Myra L.; LaFleur, Angela Christine

2014-03-01

Safety standards development for maintenance facilities of liquid and compressed gas fueled large-scale vehicles is required to ensure proper facility design and operation envelopes. Standard development organizations are utilizing risk-informed concepts to develop natural gas vehicle (NGV) codes and standards so that maintenance facilities meet acceptable risk levels. The present report summarizes Phase I work for existing NGV repair facility code requirements and highlights inconsistencies that need quantitative analysis into their effectiveness. A Hazardous and Operability study was performed to identify key scenarios of interest. Finally, scenario analyses were performed using detailed simulations and modeling to estimate the overpressure hazardsmore » from HAZOP defined scenarios. The results from Phase I will be used to identify significant risk contributors at NGV maintenance facilities, and are expected to form the basis for follow-on quantitative risk analysis work to address specific code requirements and identify effective accident prevention and mitigation strategies.« less

Environmental impact of PV cell waste scenario.

PubMed

Bogacka, M; Pikoń, K; Landrat, M

2017-12-01

Rapid growth of the volume of waste from PV cells is expected in the following years. The problem of its utilization seems to be the most important issue for future waste management systems. The environmental impacts of the PV recycling scenario are presented in the manuscript. The analysis is based on the LCA approach and the average data available in specialized databases for silicon standard PV cell is used. The functional unit includes parameters like: efficiency, composition, surface area. The discussion on the environmental impact change due to the location of the PV production and waste processing plants is presented in the manuscript. Additionally, the discussion on the environmental effect of substituting different energy resources with PV cells is presented in the manuscript. The analysis of the PV cell life cycle scenario presented in the article was performed using the SIMA PRO software and data from Ecoinvent 3.0 database together with additional data obtained from other sources. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

A Cost-Utility Analysis of Prostate Cancer Screening in Australia.

PubMed

Keller, Andrew; Gericke, Christian; Whitty, Jennifer A; Yaxley, John; Kua, Boon; Coughlin, Geoff; Gianduzzo, Troy

2017-02-01

The Göteborg randomised population-based prostate cancer screening trial demonstrated that prostate-specific antigen (PSA)-based screening reduces prostate cancer deaths compared with an age-matched control group. Utilising the prostate cancer detection rates from this study, we investigated the clinical and cost effectiveness of a similar PSA-based screening strategy for an Australian population of men aged 50-69 years. A decision model that incorporated Markov processes was developed from a health system perspective. The base-case scenario compared a population-based screening programme with current opportunistic screening practices. Costs, utility values, treatment patterns and background mortality rates were derived from Australian data. All costs were adjusted to reflect July 2015 Australian dollars (A$). An alternative scenario compared systematic with opportunistic screening but with optimisation of active surveillance (AS) uptake in both groups. A discount rate of 5 % for costs and benefits was utilised. Univariate and probabilistic sensitivity analyses were performed to assess the effect of variable uncertainty on model outcomes. Our model very closely replicated the number of deaths from both prostate cancer and background mortality in the Göteborg study. The incremental cost per quality-adjusted life-year (QALY) for PSA screening was A$147,528. However, for years of life gained (LYGs), PSA-based screening (A$45,890/LYG) appeared more favourable. Our alternative scenario with optimised AS improved cost utility to A$45,881/QALY, with screening becoming cost effective at a 92 % AS uptake rate. Both modelled scenarios were most sensitive to the utility of patients before and after intervention, and the discount rate used. PSA-based screening is not cost effective compared with Australia's assumed willingness-to-pay threshold of A$50,000/QALY. It appears more cost effective if LYGs are used as the relevant outcome, and is more cost effective than the established Australian breast cancer screening programme on this basis. Optimised utilisation of AS increases the cost effectiveness of prostate cancer screening dramatically.

Skill Standards for Open Cut Pipe Laying.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Laborers-AGC Education and Training Fund, Pomfret Center, CT.

This document identifies skill standards for utility construction in a format that uses scenarios to provide a picture of the construction process under consideration. The scenarios provide a general description of the pipe laying and utility construction process. An introduction describes use and benefits of skill standards. Section 2 presents…

Cost-Effectiveness of Dabigatran Compared to Vitamin-K Antagonists for the Treatment of Deep Venous Thrombosis in the Netherlands Using Real-World Data.

PubMed

van Leent, Merlijn W J; Stevanović, Jelena; Jansman, Frank G; Beinema, Maarten J; Brouwers, Jacobus R B J; Postma, Maarten J

2015-01-01

Vitamin-K antagonists (VKAs) present an effective anticoagulant treatment in deep venous thrombosis (DVT). However, the use of VKAs is limited because of the risk of bleeding and the necessity of frequent and long-term laboratory monitoring. Therefore, new oral anticoagulant drugs (NOACs) such as dabigatran, with lower rates of (major) intracranial bleeding compared to VKAs and not requiring monitoring, may be considered. To estimate resource utilization and costs of patients treated with the VKAs acenocoumarol and phenprocoumon, for the indication DVT. Furthermore, a formal cost-effectiveness analysis of dabigatran compared to VKAs for DVT treatment was performed, using these estimates. A retrospective observational study design in the thrombotic service of a teaching hospital (Deventer, The Netherlands) was applied to estimate real-world resource utilization and costs of VKA monitoring. A pooled analysis of data from RE-COVER and RE-COVER II on DVT was used to reflect the probabilities for events in the cost-effectiveness model. Dutch costs, utilities and specific data on coagulation monitoring levels were incorporated in the model. Next to the base case analysis, univariate probabilistic sensitivity and scenario analyses were performed. Real-world resource utilization in the thrombotic service of patients treated with VKA for the indication of DVT consisted of 12.3 measurements of the international normalized ratio (INR), with corresponding INR monitoring costs of €138 for a standardized treatment period of 180 days. In the base case, dabigatran treatment compared to VKAs in a cohort of 1,000 DVT patients resulted in savings of €18,900 (95% uncertainty interval (UI) -95,832, 151,162) and 41 (95% UI -18, 97) quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs) gained calculated from societal perspective. The probability that dabigatran is cost-effective at a conservative willingness-to pay threshold of €20,000 per QALY was 99%. Sensitivity and scenario analyses also indicated cost savings or cost-effectiveness below this same threshold. Total INR monitoring costs per patient were estimated at minimally €138. Inserting these real-world data into a cost-effectiveness analysis for patients diagnosed with DVT, dabigatran appeared to be a cost-saving alternative to VKAs in the Netherlands in the base case. Cost savings or favorable cost-effectiveness were robust in sensitivity and scenario analyses. Our results warrant confirmation in other settings and locations.

Methods for Performing Survival Curve Quality-of-Life Assessments.

PubMed

Sumner, Walton; Ding, Eric; Fischer, Irene D; Hagen, Michael D

2014-08-01

Many medical decisions involve an implied choice between alternative survival curves, typically with differing quality of life. Common preference assessment methods neglect this structure, creating some risk of distortions. Survival curve quality-of-life assessments (SQLA) were developed from Gompertz survival curves fitting the general population's survival. An algorithm was developed to generate relative discount rate-utility (DRU) functions from a standard survival curve and health state and an equally attractive alternative curve and state. A least means squared distance algorithm was developed to describe how nearly 3 or more DRU functions intersect. These techniques were implemented in a program called X-Trade and tested. SQLA scenarios can portray realistic treatment choices. A side effect scenario portrays one prototypical choice, to extend life while experiencing some loss, such as an amputation. A risky treatment scenario portrays procedures with an initial mortality risk. A time trade scenario mimics conventional time tradeoffs. Each SQLA scenario yields DRU functions with distinctive shapes, such as sigmoid curves or vertical lines. One SQLA can imply a discount rate or utility if the other value is known and both values are temporally stable. Two SQLA exercises imply a unique discount rate and utility if the inferred DRU functions intersect. Three or more SQLA results can quantify uncertainty or inconsistency in discount rate and utility estimates. Pilot studies suggested that many subjects could learn to interpret survival curves and do SQLA. SQLA confuse some people. Compared with SQLA, standard gambles quantify very low utilities more easily, and time tradeoffs are simpler for high utilities. When discount rates approach zero, time tradeoffs are as informative and easier to do than SQLA. SQLA may complement conventional utility assessment methods. © The Author(s) 2014.

Crossing the Barriers: An Analysis of Permitting Barriers to Geothermal Development and Potential Improvement Scenarios

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Levine, Aaron L; Young, Katherine R

Developers have identified many non-technical barriers to geothermal power development, including permitting. Activities required for permitting, such as the associated environmental reviews, can take a considerable amount of time and delay project development. This paper discusses the impacts to geothermal development timelines due to the permitting challenges, including the regulatory framework, environmental review process, and ancillary permits. We identified barriers that have the potential to prevent geothermal development or delay timelines and defined improvement scenarios that could assist in expediting geothermal development and permitting timelines and lead to the deployment of additional geothermal resources by 2030 and 2050: (1) themore » creation of a centralized federal geothermal permitting office and utilization of state permit coordination offices as well as (2) an expansion of existing categorical exclusions applicable to geothermal development on Bureau of Land Management public lands to include the oil and gas categorical exclusions passed as part of the Energy Policy Act of 2005. We utilized the Regional Energy Deployment System (ReEDS) and the Geothermal Electricity Technology Evaluation Model (GETEM) to forecast baseline geothermal deployment based on previous analysis of geothermal project development and permitting timelines. The model results forecast that reductions in geothermal project timelines can have a significant impact on geothermal deployment. For example, using the ReEDS model, we estimated that reducing timelines by two years, perhaps due to the creation of a centralized federal geothermal permitting office and utilization of state permit coordination offices, could result in deployment of an additional 204 MW by 2030 and 768 MW by 2050 - a 13% improvement when compared to the business as usual scenario. The model results forecast that a timeline improvement of four years - for example with an expansion of existing categorical exclusions coupled with the creation of a centralized federal geothermal permitting office and utilization of state permit coordination offices - could result in deployment of an additional 2,529 MW of geothermal capacity by 2030 and 6,917 MW of geothermal capacity by 2050 - an improvement of 116% when compared to the business as usual scenario. These results suggest that reducing development timelines could be a large driver in the deployment of geothermal resources.« less

Banking or Bankrupting: Strategies for Sustaining the Economic Future of Public Cord Blood Banks

PubMed Central

Magalon, Jeremy; Maiers, Martin; Kurtzberg, Joanne; Navarrete, Cristina; Rubinstein, Pablo; Brown, Colin; Schramm, Catherine; Larghero, Jérome; Katsahian, Sandrine; Chabannon, Christian; Picard, Christophe; Platz, Alexander; Schmidt, Alexander; Katz, Gregory

2015-01-01

Background Cord blood is an important source of stem cells. However, nearly 90% of public cord blood banks have declared that they are struggling to maintain their financial sustainability and avoid bankruptcy. The objective of this study is to evaluate how characteristics of cord blood units influence their utilization, then use this information to model the economic viability and therapeutic value of different banking strategies. Methods Retrospective analysis of cord blood data registered between January 1st, 2009 and December 31st, 2011 in Bone Marrow Donor Worldwide. Data were collected from four public banks in France, Germany and the USA. Samples were eligible for inclusion in the analysis if data on cord blood and maternal HLA typing and biological characteristics after processing were available (total nucleated and CD34+ cell counts). 9,396 banked cord blood units were analyzed, of which 5,815 were Caucasian in origin. A multivariate logistic regression model assessed the influence of three parameters on the CBU utilization rate: ethnic background, total nucleated and CD34+ cell counts. From this model, we elaborated a Utilization Score reflecting the probability of transplantation for each cord blood unit. We stratified three Utilization Score thresholds representing four different banking strategies, from the least selective (scenario A) to the most selective (scenario D). We measured the cost-effectiveness ratio for each strategy by comparing performance in terms of number of transplanted cord blood units and level of financial deficit. Results When comparing inputs and outputs over three years, Scenario A represented the most extreme case as it delivered the highest therapeutic value for patients (284 CBUs transplanted) along with the highest financial deficit (USD 5.89 million). We found that scenario C resulted in 219 CBUs transplanted with a limited deficit (USD 0.98 million) that charities and public health could realistically finance over the long term. We also found that using a pre-freezing level of 18 x 108 TNC would be the most cost-effective strategy for a public bank. Conclusion Our study shows that a swift transition from strategy A to C can play a vital role in preventing public cord blood banks worldwide from collapsing. PMID:26624279

Application of Distribution Transformer Thermal Life Models to Electrified Vehicle Charging Loads Using Monte-Carlo Method: Preprint

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Kuss, M.; Markel, T.; Kramer, W.

Concentrated purchasing patterns of plug-in vehicles may result in localized distribution transformer overload scenarios. Prolonged periods of transformer overloading causes service life decrements, and in worst-case scenarios, results in tripped thermal relays and residential service outages. This analysis will review distribution transformer load models developed in the IEC 60076 standard, and apply the model to a neighborhood with plug-in hybrids. Residential distribution transformers are sized such that night-time cooling provides thermal recovery from heavy load conditions during the daytime utility peak. It is expected that PHEVs will primarily be charged at night in a residential setting. If not managed properly,more » some distribution transformers could become overloaded, leading to a reduction in transformer life expectancy, thus increasing costs to utilities and consumers. A Monte-Carlo scheme simulated each day of the year, evaluating 100 load scenarios as it swept through the following variables: number of vehicle per transformer, transformer size, and charging rate. A general method for determining expected transformer aging rate will be developed, based on the energy needs of plug-in vehicles loading a residential transformer.« less

Utilization of eucalyptus for bioelectricity production in brazil via fast pyrolysis: a techno-economic analysis

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

In this study, a process model of a 2000 metric ton per day (MTPD) eucalyptus Tail Gas Reactive Pyrolysis (TGRP) and electricity generation plant was developed and simulated in SimSci Pro/II software for the purpose of evaluating its techno-economic viability in Brazil. Two scenarios were compared b...

Valuing hypothetical wildfire impacts with a Kuhn–Tucker model of recreation demand

Treesearch

Jose Sanchez; Ken Baerenklau; Armando Gonzalez-Caban

2016-01-01

This study uses a nonmarket valuation method to investigate the recreation values of the San Jacinto Wilderness in southern California. The analysis utilizes survey data from a stated-choice experiment involving backcountry visitors who responded to questions about hypothetical wildfire burn scenarios. Benefits of landscape preservation are derived using a Kuhn-Tucker...

Risks and Crises for Healthcare Providers: The Impact of Cloud Computing

PubMed Central

Glasberg, Ronald; Hartmann, Michael; Tamm, Gerrit

2014-01-01

We analyze risks and crises for healthcare providers and discuss the impact of cloud computing in such scenarios. The analysis is conducted in a holistic way, taking into account organizational and human aspects, clinical, IT-related, and utilities-related risks as well as incorporating the view of the overall risk management. PMID:24707207

An equilibrium analysis of the land use structure in the Yunnan Province, China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

van Aken, H. M.; van Veldhoven, A. K.; Veth, C.; de Ruijter, W. P. M.; van Leeuwen, P. J.; Drijfhout, S. S.; Whittle, C. P.; Rouault, M.

2014-06-01

Global land use structure is changing rapidly due to unceasing population growth and accelerated urbanization, which leads to fierce competition between the rigid demand for built-up area and the protection of cultivated land, forest, and grassland. It has been a great challenge to realize the sustainable development of land resources. Based on a computable general equilibrium model of land use change with a social accounting matrix dataset, this study implemented an equilibrium analysis of the land use structure in the Yunnan Province during the period of 2008-2020 under three scenarios, the baseline scenario, low TFP (total factor productivity) scenario, and high TFP scenario. The results indicated that under all three scenarios, area of cultivated land declined significantly along with a remarkable expansion of built-up area, while areas of forest, grassland, and unused land increased slightly. The growth rate of TFP had first negative and then positive effects on the expansion of built-up area and decline of cultivated land as it increased. Moreover, the simulated changes of both cultivated land and built-up area were the biggest under the low TFP scenario, and far exceeded the limit in the Overall Plan for Land Utilization in the Yunnan Province in 2020. The scenario-based simulation results are of important reference value for policy-makers in making land use decisions, balancing the fierce competition between the protection of cultivated land and the increasing demand for built-up area, and guaranteeing food security, ecological security, and the sustainable development of land resources.

An equilibrium analysis of the land use structure in the Yunnan Province, China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Luo, Jiao; Zhan, Jinyan; Lin, Yingzhi; Zhao, Chunhong

2014-09-01

Global land use structure is changing rapidly due to unceasing population growth and accelerated urbanization, which leads to fierce competition between the rigid demand for built-up area and the protection of cultivated land, forest, and grassland. It has been a great challenge to realize the sustainable development of land resources. Based on a computable general equilibrium model of land use change with a social accounting matrix dataset, this study implemented an equilibrium analysis of the land use structure in the Yunnan Province during the period of 2008-2020 under three scenarios, the baseline scenario, low TFP (total factor productivity) scenario, and high TFP scenario. The results indicated that under all three scenarios, area of cultivated land declined significantly along with a remarkable expansion of built-up area, while areas of forest, grassland, and unused land increased slightly. The growth rate of TFP had first negative and then positive effects on the expansion of built-up area and decline of cultivated land as it increased. Moreover, the simulated changes of both cultivated land and built-up area were the biggest under the low TFP scenario, and far exceeded the limit in the Overall Plan for Land Utilization in the Yunnan Province in 2020. The scenario-based simulation results are of important reference value for policy-makers in making land use decisions, balancing the fierce competition between the protection of cultivated land and the increasing demand for built-up area, and guaranteeing food security, ecological security, and the sustainable development of land resources.

Potentiality Prediction of Electric Power Replacement Based on Power Market Development Strategy

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Miao, Bo; Yang, Shuo; Liu, Qiang; Lin, Jingyi; Zhao, Le; Liu, Chang; Li, Bin

2017-05-01

The application of electric power replacement plays an important role in promoting the development of energy conservation and emission reduction in our country. To exploit the potentiality of regional electric power replacement, the regional GDP (gross domestic product) and energy consumption are taken as potentiality evaluation indicators. The principal component factors are extracted with PCA (principal component analysis), and the integral potentiality analysis is made to the potentiality of electric power replacement in the national various regions; a region is taken as a research object, and the potentiality of electric power replacement is defined and quantified. The analytical model for the potentiality of multi-scenario electric power replacement is developed, and prediction is made to the energy consumption with the grey prediction model. The relevant theoretical research is utilized to realize prediction analysis on the potentiality amount of multi-scenario electric power replacement.

Hydraulic and Condition Assessment of Existing Sewerage Network: A Case Study of an Educational Institute

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sourabh, Nishant; Timbadiya, P. V.

2018-04-01

The hydraulic simulation of the existing sewerage network provides various information about critical points to assess the deteriorating condition and help in rehabilitation of existing network and future expansion. In the present study, hydraulic and condition assessment of existing network of educational Institute (i.e. Sardar Vallabhbhai National Institute of Technology-Surat, Gujarat, India), having an area of 100 ha and ground levels in range of 5.0-9.0 m above mean sea level, has been carried out using sewage flow simulation for existing and future scenarios analysis using SewerGEMS v8i. The paper describes the features of 4.79 km long sewerage network of institute followed by network model simulation for aforesaid scenarios and recommendations on improvement of the existing network for future use. The total sewer loads for present and future scenarios are 1.67 million litres per day (MLD) and 3.62 MLD, considering the peak factor of 3 on the basis of population. The hydraulic simulation of the existing scenario indicated depth by diameter (d/D) ratio in the range of 0.02-0.48 and velocity range of 0.08-0.53 m/s for existing network for present scenario. For the future scenario, the existing network is needed to be modified and it was found that total of 11 conduits (length: 464.8 m) should be replaced to the next higher diameter available, i.e., 350 mm for utilization of existing network for future scenario. The present study provides the methodology for condition assessment of existing network and its utilization as per guidelines provided by Central Public Health and Environmental Engineering Organization, 2013. The methodology presented in this paper can be used by municipal/public health engineer for the assessment of existing sewerage network for its serviceability and improvement in future.

Scenario management and automated scenario generation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

McKeever, William; Gilmour, Duane; Lehman, Lynn; Stirtzinger, Anthony; Krause, Lee

2006-05-01

The military planning process utilizes simulation to determine the appropriate course of action (COA) that will achieve a campaign end state. However, due to the difficulty in developing and generating simulation level COAs, only a few COAs are simulated. This may have been appropriate for traditional conflicts but the evolution of warfare from attrition based to effects based strategies, as well as the complexities of 4 th generation warfare and asymmetric adversaries have placed additional demands on military planners and simulation. To keep pace with this dynamic, changing environment, planners must be able to perform continuous, multiple, "what-if" COA analysis. Scenario management and generation are critical elements to achieving this goal. An effects based scenario generation research project demonstrated the feasibility of automated scenario generation techniques which support multiple stove-pipe and emerging broad scope simulations. This paper will discuss a case study in which the scenario generation capability was employed to support COA simulations to identify plan effectiveness. The study demonstrated the effectiveness of using multiple simulation runs to evaluate the effectiveness of alternate COAs in achieving the overall campaign (metrics-based) objectives. The paper will discuss how scenario generation technology can be employed to allow military commanders and mission planning staff to understand the impact of command decisions on the battlespace of tomorrow.

Analysis of consistency of global net land-use change carbon emission scenario using offline vegetation model and earth system model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kato, E.; Kawamiya, M.

2010-12-01

For CMIP5 experiments, emissions scenarios data sets for climate models are prepared as Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) by the Integrated Assessment Models (IAMs). IAMs also have depicted regional land-use scenarios based on the socioeconomic assumption of the future scenarios of RCPs. In the land-use harmonization project, gridded land-use transition data has been constructed from the regional IAMs future land-use scenarios which smoothly connects historical reconstructions of land-use based on HYDE 3 data and FAO wood harvest data. In this study, using the gridded transition land-use scenario data, global net CO2 emission from land-use change for each RCPs scenarios is evaluated with a offline version of terrestrial biogeochemical model, VISIT (Vegetation Integrative SImulation Tool), utilizing a protocol to estimate carbon emission from deforested biomass considering delayed decomposition of product pools, and regrowth absorption from the secondary lands with abandoned agricultural lands. From the model output, effect of CO2 fertilization and land-use scenario itself on the emission is assessed to see the consistency of the scenarios. In addition, to see the effect of climate change and the climate-carbon feedback on terrestrial ecosystems, net land-use change CO2 emission is also evaluated with an earth system model, MIROC-ESM incorporating a DGVM with land-use change component. In the simulations with earth system model, RCP 6.0 scenario has been evaluated by model runs with and without land-use change forcing.

Designing Agent Collectives For Systems With Markovian Dynamics

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Wolpert, David H.; Lawson, John W.; Clancy, Daniel (Technical Monitor)

2001-01-01

The "Collective Intelligence" (COIN) framework concerns the design of collectives of agents so that as those agents strive to maximize their individual utility functions, their interaction causes a provided "world" utility function concerning the entire collective to be also maximized. Here we show how to extend that framework to scenarios having Markovian dynamics when no re-evolution of the system from counter-factual initial conditions (an often expensive calculation) is permitted. Our approach transforms the (time-extended) argument of each agent's utility function before evaluating that function. This transformation has benefits in scenarios not involving Markovian dynamics, in particular scenarios where not all of the arguments of an agent's utility function are observable. We investigate this transformation in simulations involving both linear and quadratic (nonlinear) dynamics. In addition, we find that a certain subset of these transformations, which result in utilities that have low "opacity (analogous to having high signal to noise) but are not "factored" (analogous to not being incentive compatible), reliably improve performance over that arising with factored utilities. We also present a Taylor Series method for the fully general nonlinear case.

Estimation of population-based utility weights for gastric cancer-related health states.

PubMed

Lee, Hyeon-Jeong; Ock, Minsu; Kim, Kyu-Pyo; Jo, Min-Woo

2018-01-01

This study aimed to generate utility weights of gastric cancer-related health states from the perspective of the Korean general population. The Korean adults (age ≥19 years) included in the study were sampled using multistage quota sampling methods stratified by sex, age, and education level. Nine scenarios for hypothetical gastric cancer-related health states were developed and reviewed. After consenting to participate, the subjects were surveyed by trained interviewers using a computer-assisted personal interview method. Participants were asked to perform standard gamble tasks to measure the utility weights of 5 randomly assigned health states (from among nine scenarios). The mean utility weight was calculated for each health state. Three hundred twenty-six of the 407 adults who completed this study were included in the analysis. The mean utility weights from the standard gamble were 0.857 (no gastric cancer with Helicobacter pylori infection), 0.773 (early gastric cancer [EGC] with endoscopic surgery), 0.779 (EGC with subtotal gastrectomy), 0.767 (EGC with total gastrectomy), 0.602 (advanced gastric cancer with subtotal gastrectomy and adjuvant chemotherapy), 0.643 (advanced gastric cancer with total gastrectomy and adjuvant chemotherapy), 0.522 (advanced gastric cancer with extended gastrectomy and adjuvant chemotherapy), 0.404 (metastatic gastric cancer with palliative chemotherapy), and 0.399 (recurrent gastric cancer with palliative chemotherapy). This study was the first to comprehensively estimate the utility weights of gastric cancer-related health states in a general population. The utility weights derived from this study could be useful for future economic evaluations related to gastric cancer interventions.

Analysis of Advanced Respiratory Support Onboard ISS and CCV

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Shah, Ronak V.; Kertsman, Eric L.; Alexander, David J.; Duchesne, Ted; Law, Jennifer; Roden, Sean K.

2014-01-01

NASA is collaborating with private entities for the development of commercial space vehicles. The Space and Clinical Operations Division was tasked to review the oxygen and respiratory support system and recommend what capabilities, if any, the vehicle should have to support the return of an ill or injured crewmember. The Integrated Medical Model (IMM) was utilized as a data source for the development of these recommendations. The Integrated Medical Model (IMM) was used to simulate a six month, six crew, International Space Station (ISS) mission. Three medical system scenarios were considered based on the availability of (1) oxygen only, (2) oxygen and a ventilator, or (3) neither oxygen nor ventilator. The IMM analysis provided probability estimates of medical events that would require either oxygen or ventilator support. It also provided estimates of crew health, the probability of evacuation, and the probability of loss of crew life secondary to medical events for each of the three medical system scenarios. These IMM outputs were used as objective data to enable evidence-based decisions regarding oxygen and respiratory support system requirements for commercial crew vehicles. The IMM provides data that may be utilized to support informed decisions regarding the development of medical systems for commercial crew vehicles.

The willingness of US pediatric dentists to use atraumatic restorative treatment (ART) with their patients: a conjoint analysis

PubMed Central

Kateeb, Elham Talib; Warren, John; Gaeth, Gary; Damiano, Peter; Momany, Elizabeth; Kanellis, Michael J.; Weber-Gasparoni, Karin; Ansley, Timothy

2014-01-01

Objectives The atraumatic restorative treatment (ART) was developed as an affordable, patient-friendly dental caries management procedure that does not need extensive operator training or special skills. The aim of this study was to determine factors that influence the decision to use ART using an innovative marketing research technique known as conjoint analysis. Methods A conjoint survey was completed by 723 members of the American Academy of Pediatric Dentistry. Three factors (age of the child, level of cooperation, type of insurance) were varied across three levels to create nine patient scenarios. The weights that practitioners placed on these factors in decisions to use ART in treating carious lesions were determined by conjoint analysis. Factors such as lesion location, depth, and extension were fixed in the nine clinical scenarios. Results Seven-hundred twenty-three pediatric dentists completed the survey (32 percent). Age of the child was the most important factor in pediatric dentists’ decisions to use ART (46 percent) compared with level of cooperation (41 percent) and type of insurance coverage (11 percent). For the age factor, the age of 2 years had the greatest utility (0.55) compared with age 4 (−0.09) and age 6 (−0.46). For types of insurance coverage, having no insurance (0.124) had the greatest utility compared with having public insurance (−0.119). Conclusions Although insurance coverage was the least important among the factors, being without insurance, being very young, and being uncooperative was the scenario where pediatric dentists most favored ART when making trade offs between different factors using the conjoint design. PMID:24635596

Modeling soil conservation, water conservation and their tradeoffs: a case study in Beijing.

PubMed

Bai, Yang; Ouyang, Zhiyun; Zheng, Hua; Li, Xiaoma; Zhuang, Changwei; Jiang, Bo

2012-01-01

Natural ecosystems provide society with important goods and services. With the rapid increase in human populations and excessive utilization of natural resources, humans frequently enhance the production of some services at the expense of the others. Although the need for tradeoffs between conservation and development is urgent, the lack of efficient methods to assess such tradeoffs has impeded progress. Three land use strategy scenarios (development scenario, plan trend scenario and conservation scenario) were created to forecast potential changes in ecosystem services from 2007 to 2050 in Beijing, China. GIS-based techniques were used to map spatial and temporal distribution and changes in ecosystem services for each scenario. The provision of ecosystem services differed spatially, with significant changes being associated with different scenarios. Scenario analysis of water yield (as average annual yield) and soil retention (as retention rate per unit area) for the period 2007 to 2050 indicated that the highest values for these parameters were predicted for the forest habitat under all three scenarios. Annual yield/retention of forest, shrub, and grassland ranked the highest in the conservation scenario. Total water yield and soil retention increased in the conservation scenario and declined dramatically in the other two scenarios, especially the development scenario. The conservation scenario was the optimal land use strategy, resulting in the highest soil retention and water yield. Our study suggests that the evaluation and visualization of ecosystem services can effectively assist in understanding the tradeoffs between conservation and development. Results of this study have implications for planning and monitoring future management of natural capital and ecosystem services, which can be integrated into land use decision-making.

Measuring the impact of alcohol-related disorders on quality of life through general population preferences.

PubMed

Rodríguez-Míguez, Eva; Mosquera Nogueira, Jacinto

To estimate the intangible effects of alcohol misuse on the drinker's quality of life, based on general population preferences METHODS: The most important effects (dimensions) were identified by means of two focus groups conducted with patients and specialists. The levels of these dimensions were combined to yield different scenarios. A sample of 300 people taken from the general Spanish population evaluated a subset of these scenarios, selected by using a fractional factorial design. We used the probability lottery equivalent method to derive the utility score for the evaluated scenarios, and the random-effects regression model to estimate the relative importance of each dimension and to derive the utility score for the rest of scenarios not directly evaluated. Four main dimensions were identified (family, physical health, psychological health and social) and divided into three levels of intensity. We found a wide variation in the utilities associated with the scenarios directly evaluated (ranging from 0.09 to 0.78). The dimensions with the greatest relative importance were physical health (36.4%) and family consequences (31.3%), followed by psychological (20.5%) and social consequences (11.8%). Our findings confirm the benefits of adopting a heterogeneous approach to measure the effects of alcohol misuse. The estimated utilities could have both clinical and economic applications. Copyright © 2016 SESPAS. Publicado por Elsevier España, S.L.U. All rights reserved.

Integrating climate change in transportation and land use scenario planning : an example from central New Mexico

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2015-04-01

The Central New Mexico Climate Change Scenario Planning Project, an Interagency Transportation, Land Use, and Climate Change Initiative, utilized a scenario planning process to develop a multiagency transportation- and land use-focused development st...

Analysis of ground-motion simulation big data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Maeda, T.; Fujiwara, H.

2016-12-01

We developed a parallel distributed processing system which applies a big data analysis to the large-scale ground motion simulation data. The system uses ground-motion index values and earthquake scenario parameters as input. We used peak ground velocity value and velocity response spectra as the ground-motion index. The ground-motion index values are calculated from our simulation data. We used simulated long-period ground motion waveforms at about 80,000 meshes calculated by a three dimensional finite difference method based on 369 earthquake scenarios of a great earthquake in the Nankai Trough. These scenarios were constructed by considering the uncertainty of source model parameters such as source area, rupture starting point, asperity location, rupture velocity, fmax and slip function. We used these parameters as the earthquake scenario parameter. The system firstly carries out the clustering of the earthquake scenario in each mesh by the k-means method. The number of clusters is determined in advance using a hierarchical clustering by the Ward's method. The scenario clustering results are converted to the 1-D feature vector. The dimension of the feature vector is the number of scenario combination. If two scenarios belong to the same cluster the component of the feature vector is 1, and otherwise the component is 0. The feature vector shows a `response' of mesh to the assumed earthquake scenario group. Next, the system performs the clustering of the mesh by k-means method using the feature vector of each mesh previously obtained. Here the number of clusters is arbitrarily given. The clustering of scenarios and meshes are performed by parallel distributed processing with Hadoop and Spark, respectively. In this study, we divided the meshes into 20 clusters. The meshes in each cluster are geometrically concentrated. Thus this system can extract regions, in which the meshes have similar `response', as clusters. For each cluster, it is possible to determine particular scenario parameters which characterize the cluster. In other word, by utilizing this system, we can obtain critical scenario parameters of the ground-motion simulation for each evaluation point objectively. This research was supported by CREST, JST.

Benefit/cost comparison for utility SMES applications

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Desteese, J. G.; Dagle, J. E.

1991-08-01

This paper summarizes eight case studies that account for the benefits and costs of superconducting magnetic energy storage (SMES) in system-specific utility applications. Four of these scenarios are hypothetical SMES applications in the Pacific Northwest, where relatively low energy costs impose a stringent test on the viability of the concept. The other four scenarios address SMES applications on high-voltage, direct-current (HVDC) transmission lines. While estimated SMES benefits are based on a previously reported methodology, this paper presents results of an improved cost-estimating approach that includes an assumed reduction in the cost of the power conditioning system (PCS) from approximately $160/kW to $80/kW. The revised approach results in all the SMES scenarios showing higher benefit/cost ratios than those reported earlier. However, in all but two cases, the value of any single benefit is still less than the unit's levelized cost. This suggests, as a general principle, that the total value of multiple benefits should always be considered if SMES is to appear cost effective in many utility applications. These results should offer utilities further encouragement to conduct more detailed analyses of SMES benefits in scenarios that apply to individual systems.

Logistics, Costs, and GHG Impacts of Utility Scale Cofiring with 20% Biomass

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Boardman, Richard D.; Cafferty, Kara G.; Nichol, Corrie

This report presents the results of an evaluation of utility-scale biomass cofiring in large pulverized coal power plants. The purpose of this evaluation is to assess the cost and greenhouse gas reduction benefits of substituting relatively high volumes of biomass in coal. Two scenarios for cofiring up to 20% biomass with coal (on a lower heating value basis) are presented; (1) woody biomass in central Alabama where Southern Pine is currently produced for the wood products and paper industries, and (2) purpose-grown switchgrass in the Ohio River Valley. These examples are representative of regions where renewable biomass growth rates aremore » high in correspondence with major U.S. heartland power production. While these scenarios may provide a realistic reference for comparing the relative benefits of using a high volume of biomass for power production, this evaluation is not intended to be an analysis of policies concerning renewable portfolio standards or the optimal use of biomass for energy production in the U.S.« less

Eco-efficiency for greenhouse gas emissions mitigation of municipal solid waste management: a case study of Tianjin, China.

PubMed

Zhao, Wei; Huppes, Gjalt; van der Voet, Ester

2011-06-01

The issue of municipal solid waste (MSW) management has been highlighted in China due to the continually increasing MSW volumes being generated and the limited capacity of waste treatment facilities. This article presents a quantitative eco-efficiency (E/E) analysis on MSW management in terms of greenhouse gas (GHG) mitigation. A methodology for E/E analysis has been proposed, with an emphasis on the consistent integration of life cycle assessment (LCA) and life cycle costing (LCC). The environmental and economic impacts derived from LCA and LCC have been normalized and defined as a quantitative E/E indicator. The proposed method was applied in a case study of Tianjin, China. The study assessed the current MSW management system, as well as a set of alternative scenarios, to investigate trade-offs between economy and GHG emissions mitigation. Additionally, contribution analysis was conducted on both LCA and LCC to identify key issues driving environmental and economic impacts. The results show that the current Tianjin's MSW management system emits the highest GHG and costs the least, whereas the situation reverses in the integrated scenario. The key issues identified by the contribution analysis show no linear relationship between the global warming impact and the cost impact in MSW management system. The landfill gas utilization scenario is indicated as a potential optimum scenario by the proposed E/E analysis, given the characteristics of MSW, technology levels, and chosen methodologies. The E/E analysis provides an attractive direction towards sustainable waste management, though some questions with respect to uncertainty need to be discussed further. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Energy efficiency in waste-to-energy and its relevance with regard to climate control.

PubMed

Ragossnig, Arne M; Wartha, Christian; Kirchner, Andreas

2008-02-01

This article focuses on systematically highlighting the ways to optimize waste-to-energy plants in terms of their energy efficiency as an indicator of the positive effect with regard to climate control. Potentials for increasing energy efficiency are identified and grouped into categories. The measures mentioned are illustrated by real-world examples. As an example, district cooling as a means for increasing energy efficiency in the district heating network of Vienna is described. Furthermore a scenario analysis shows the relevance of energy efficiency in waste management scenarios based on thermal treatment of waste with regard to climate control. The description is based on a model that comprises all relevant processes from the collection and transportation up to the thermal treatment of waste. The model has been applied for household-like commercial waste. The alternatives compared are a combined heat and power incinerator, which is being introduced in many places as an industrial utility boiler or in metropolitan areas where there is a demand for district heating and a classical municipal solid waste incinerator producing solely electrical power. For comparative purposes a direct landfilling scenario has been included in the scenario analysis. It is shown that the energy efficiency of thermal treatment facilities is crucial to the quantity of greenhouse gases emitted.

Open-loop simulations of atmospheric turbulence using the AdAPS interface

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Widiker, Jeffrey J.; Magee, Eric P.

2005-08-01

We present and analyze experimental results of lab-based open-loop turbulence simulation utilizing the Adaptive Aberrating Phase Screen Interface developed by ATK Mission Research, which incorporates a 2-D spatial light modulator manufactured by Boulder Nonlinear Systems. These simulations demonstrate the effectiveness of a SLM to simulate various atmospheric turbulence scenarios in a laboratory setting without altering the optical setup. This effectiveness is shown using several figures of merit including: long-term Strehl ratio, time-dependant mean-tilt analysis, and beam break-up geometry. The scenarios examined here range from relatively weak (D/ro = 0.167) to quite strong (D/ro = 10) turbulence effects modeled using a single phase-screen placed at the pupil of a Fourier Transforming lens. While very strong turbulence scenarios result long-term Strehl ratios higher than expected, the SLM provided an accurate simulation of atmospheric effects for conventional phase-screen strengths.

The Future of Utility Customer-Funded Energy Efficiency Programs in the United States: Projected Spending and Savings to 2025

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Barbose, Galen; Goldman, Charles; Hoffman, Ian

2012-09-11

We develop projections of future spending on, and savings from, energy efficiency programs funded by electric and gas utility customers in the United States, under three scenarios through 2025. Our analysis, which updates a previous LBNL study, relies on detailed bottom-up modeling of current state energy efficiency policies, regulatory decisions, and demand-side management and utility resource plans. The three scenarios are intended to represent a range of potential outcomes under the current policy environment (i.e., without considering possible major new policy developments). By 2025, spending on electric and gas efficiency programs (excluding load management programs) is projected to double frommore » 2010 levels to $9.5 billion in the medium case, compared to $15.6 billion in the high case and $6.5 billion in the low case. Compliance with statewide legislative or regulatory savings or spending targets is the primary driver for the increase in electric program spending through 2025, though a significant share of the increase is also driven by utility DSM planning activity and integrated resource planning. Our analysis suggests that electric efficiency program spending may approach a more even geographic distribution over time in terms of absolute dollars spent, with the Northeastern and Western states declining from over 70% of total U.S. spending in 2010 to slightly more than 50% in 2025, with the South and Midwest splitting the remainder roughly evenly. Under our medium case scenario, annual incremental savings from customer-funded electric energy efficiency programs increase from 18.4 TWh in 2010 in the U.S. (which is about 0.5% of electric utility retail sales) to 28.8 TWh in 2025 (0.8% of retail sales). These savings would offset the majority of load growth in the Energy Information Administration’s most recent reference case forecast, given specific assumptions about the extent to which future energy efficiency program savings are captured in that forecast. However, the pathway that customer-funded efficiency programs ultimately take will depend on a series of key challenges and uncertainties associated both with the broader market and policy context and with the implementation and regulatory oversight of the energy efficiency programs themselves.« less

Hydrothermal Liquefaction Treatment Preliminary Hazard Analysis Report

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Lowry, Peter P.; Wagner, Katie A.

A preliminary hazard assessment was completed during February 2015 to evaluate the conceptual design of the modular hydrothermal liquefaction treatment system. The hazard assessment was performed in 2 stages. An initial assessment utilizing Hazard Identification and Preliminary Hazards Analysis (PHA) techniques identified areas with significant or unique hazards (process safety-related hazards) that fall outside of the normal operating envelope of PNNL and warranted additional analysis. The subsequent assessment was based on a qualitative What-If analysis. This analysis was augmented, as necessary, by additional quantitative analysis for scenarios involving a release of hazardous material or energy with the potential for affectingmore » the public.« less

Exploring rape myths, gendered norms, group processing, and the social context of rape among college women: a qualitative analysis.

PubMed

Deming, Michelle E; Covan, Eleanor Krassen; Swan, Suzanne C; Billings, Deborah L

2013-04-01

The purpose of this research is to explore the negotiation strategies of college women as they interpret ambiguous rape scenarios. In focus groups, 1st- and 4th-year college women were presented with a series of three vignettes depicting incidents that meet the legal criteria for rape yet are ambiguous due to the presence of cultural rape myths, contexts involving alcohol consumption, varying degrees of consent, and a known perpetrator. These contexts are critical in understanding how college women define rape. Key findings indicated many of these college women utilized rape myths and norms within their peer groups to interpret rape scenarios.

Utilizing Traveler Demand Modeling to Predict Future Commercial Flight Schedules in the NAS

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Viken, Jeff; Dollyhigh, Samuel; Smith, Jeremy; Trani, Antonio; Baik, Hojong; Hinze, Nicholas; Ashiabor, Senanu

2006-01-01

The current work incorporates the Transportation Systems Analysis Model (TSAM) to predict the future demand for airline travel. TSAM is a multi-mode, national model that predicts the demand for all long distance travel at a county level based upon population and demographics. The model conducts a mode choice analysis to compute the demand for commercial airline travel based upon the traveler s purpose of the trip, value of time, cost and time of the trip,. The county demand for airline travel is then aggregated (or distributed) to the airport level, and the enplanement demand at commercial airports is modeled. With the growth in flight demand, and utilizing current airline flight schedules, the Fratar algorithm is used to develop future flight schedules in the NAS. The projected flights can then be flown through air transportation simulators to quantify the ability of the NAS to meet future demand. A major strength of the TSAM analysis is that scenario planning can be conducted to quantify capacity requirements at individual airports, based upon different future scenarios. Different demographic scenarios can be analyzed to model the demand sensitivity to them. Also, it is fairly well know, but not well modeled at the airport level, that the demand for travel is highly dependent on the cost of travel, or the fare yield of the airline industry. The FAA projects the fare yield (in constant year dollars) to keep decreasing into the future. The magnitude and/or direction of these projections can be suspect in light of the general lack of airline profits and the large rises in airline fuel cost. Also, changes in travel time and convenience have an influence on the demand for air travel, especially for business travel. Future planners cannot easily conduct sensitivity studies of future demand with the FAA TAF data, nor with the Boeing or Airbus projections. In TSAM many factors can be parameterized and various demand sensitivities can be predicted for future travel. These resulting demand scenarios can be incorporated into future flight schedules, therefore providing a quantifiable demand for flights in the NAS for a range of futures. In addition, new future airline business scenarios are investigated that illustrate when direct flights can replace connecting flights and larger aircraft can be substituted, only when justified by demand.

Bridging the Gap between User Experience Research and Design in Industry: An Analysis of Two Common Communication Tools--Personas and Scenarios

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Putnam, Cynthia

2010-01-01

User experience (UX) research in the design of technology products utilizes human-centered design (HCD) methods to summarize and explain pertinent information about end users to designers. However, UX researchers cannot effectively communicate the needs and goals of users if designers do not find UX research (a) easy to integrate into design…

Life Cycle Assessment of the MBT plant in Ano Liossia, Athens, Greece

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Abeliotis, Konstadinos, E-mail: kabeli@hua.gr; Kalogeropoulos, Alexandros; Lasaridi, Katia

2012-01-15

Highlights: Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer We model the operation of an MBT plant in Greece based on LCA. Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer We compare four different MBT operating scenarios (among them and with landfilling). Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer Even the current operation of the MBT plant is preferable to landfilling. Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer Utilization of the MBT compost and metals generates the most environmental gains. Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer Thermal exploitation of RDF improves further the environmental performance of the plant. - Abstract: The aim of this paper is the application of Life Cycle Assessment to the operation of the MBT facility of Ano Liossia in the region of Attica in Greece. The regionmore » of Attica is home to almost half the population of Greece and the management of its waste is a major issue. In order to explicitly analyze the operation of the MBT plant, five scenarios were generated. Actual operation data of the MBT plant for the year 2008 were provided by the region of Attica and the LCA modeling was performed via the SimaPro 5.1 software while impact assessment was performed utilizing the Eco-indicator'99 method. The results of our analysis indicate that even the current operation of the MBT plant is preferable to landfilling. Among the scenarios of MBT operation, the one with complete utilization of the MBT outputs, i.e. compost, RDF, ferrous and non-ferrous metals, is the one that generates the most environmental gains. Our analysis indicates that the exploitation of RDF via incineration is the key factor towards improving the environmental performance of the MBT plant. Our findings provide a quantitative understanding of the MBT plant. Interpretation of results showed that proper operation of the modern waste management systems can lead to substantial reduction of environmental impacts and savings of resources.« less

Improving outpatient phlebotomy service efficiency and patient experience using discrete-event simulation.

PubMed

Yip, Kenneth; Pang, Suk-King; Chan, Kui-Tim; Chan, Chi-Kuen; Lee, Tsz-Leung

2016-08-08

Purpose - The purpose of this paper is to present a simulation modeling application to reconfigure the outpatient phlebotomy service of an acute regional and teaching hospital in Hong Kong, with an aim to improve service efficiency, shorten patient queuing time and enhance workforce utilization. Design/methodology/approach - The system was modeled as an inhomogeneous Poisson process and a discrete-event simulation model was developed to simulate the current setting, and to evaluate how various performance metrics would change if switched from a decentralized to a centralized model. Variations were then made to the model to test different workforce arrangements for the centralized service, so that managers could decide on the service's final configuration via an evidence-based and data-driven approach. Findings - This paper provides empirical insights about the relationship between staffing arrangement and system performance via a detailed scenario analysis. One particular staffing scenario was chosen by manages as it was considered to strike the best balance between performance and workforce scheduled. The resulting centralized phlebotomy service was successfully commissioned. Practical implications - This paper demonstrates how analytics could be used for operational planning at the hospital level. The authors show that a transparent and evidence-based scenario analysis, made available through analytics and simulation, greatly facilitates management and clinical stakeholders to arrive at the ideal service configuration. Originality/value - The authors provide a robust method in evaluating the relationship between workforce investment, queuing reduction and workforce utilization, which is crucial for managers when deciding the delivery model for any outpatient-related service.

Holistic assessment of a landfill mining pilot project in Austria: Methodology and application.

PubMed

Hermann, Robert; Baumgartner, Rupert J; Vorbach, Stefan; Wolfsberger, Tanja; Ragossnig, Arne; Pomberger, Roland

2016-07-01

Basic technical and economic examinations of Austrian mass waste landfills, concerning the recovery of secondary raw materials, have been carried out by the 'LAMIS - Landfill Mining Austria' pilot project for the first time in Austria. A main focus of the research - the subject of this article - was the first devotion of a pilot landfill to an integrated ecological and economic assessment so that its feasibility could be verified before a landfill mining project commenced. A Styrian mass waste landfill had been chosen for this purpose that had been put into operation in 1979 and received mechanically-biologically pre-treated municipal waste till 2012. The whole assessment procedure was divided into preliminary and main assessment phases to evaluate the general suitability of a landfill mining project with little financial and human resource expense. A portfolio chart, based on a questionnaire, was created for the preliminary assessment that, as a result, has provided a recommendation for subsequent investigation - the main assessment phase. In this case, specific economic criteria were assessed by net present value calculation, while ecological or socio-economic criteria were rated by utility analysis, transferring the result into a utility-net present value chart. In the case of the examined pilot landfill, assessing the landfill mining project produced a higher utility but a lower net present value than a landfill leaving-in for aftercare. Since no clearly preferable scenario could be identified this way, a cost-revenue analysis was carried out in addition that determined a dimensionless ratio: the 'utility - net present value quotient' of both scenarios. Comparing this quotient showed unmistakably that in the overall assessment, 'leaving the landfill in aftercare' was preferable to a 'landfill mining project' in that specific case. © The Author(s) 2016.

Early Treatment in HCV: Is it a Cost-Utility Option from the Italian Perspective?

PubMed

Marcellusi, Andrea; Viti, Raffaella; Damele, Francesco; Cammà, Calogero; Taliani, Gloria; Mennini, Francesco Saverio

2016-08-01

In Italy, the Italian Pharmaceutical Agency (AIFA) criteria used F3-F4 fibrosis stages as the threshold to prioritise the treatment with interferon (IFN)-free regimens, while in genotype 1 chronic hepatitis C (G1 CHC) patients with fibrosis of liver stage 2, an approach with pegylated interferon (PEG-IFN)-based triple therapy with simeprevir was suggested. The key clinical question is whether, in an era of financial constraints, the application of a universal IFN-free strategy in naïve G1 CHC patients is feasible within a short time horizon. The aim of this study is to perform an economic analysis to estimate the cost-utility of the early innovative therapy in Italy for managing hepatitis C virus (HCV)-infected patients. The incremental cost-utility analysis was carried out to quantify the benefits of the early treatment approach in HCV subjects. A Markov simulation model including direct and indirect costs and health outcomes was developed from an Italian National Healthcare Service and societal perspective. A total of 5000 Monte Carlo simulations were performed on two distinct scenarios: standard of care (SoC) which includes 14,000 genotype 1 patients in Italy treated with innovative interferon-free regimens in the fibrosis of liver stages 3 and 4 (F3-F4) versus early-treatment scenario (ETS) where 2000 patients were additionally treated with simeprevir plus PEG-IFN and ribavirin in the fibrosis stage 2 (F2) (based on Italian Medicines Agency AIFA reimbursement criteria). A systematic literature review was carried out to identify epidemiological and economic data, which were subsequently used to inform the model. Furthermore, a one-way probabilistic sensitivity was performed to measure the relationship between the main parameters of the model and the cost-utility results. The model shows that, in terms of incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) per quality adjusted life year (QALY) gained, ETS appeared to be the most cost-utility option compared with both perspective societal (ICER = EUR11,396) and NHS (ICER = EUR14,733) over a time period of 10 years. The cost-utility of ETS is more sustainable as it extends the time period analysis [ICER = EUR 6778 per QALY to 20 years and EUR4474 per QALY to 30 years]. From the societal perspective, the ETS represents the dominant option at a time horizon of 30 years. If we consider the sub-group population of treated patients [16,000 patients of which 2000 not treated in the SoC, the ETS scenario was dominant after only 5 years and the cost-utility at 2 years of simulation. The one-way sensitivity analysis on the main variables confirmed the robustness of the model for the early-treatment approach. Our model represents a tool for policy makers and health-care professionals, and provided information on the cost-utility of the early-treatment approach in HCV-infected patients in Italy. Starting innovative treatment regimens earlier keeps HCV-infected patients in better health and reduces the incidence of HCV-related events; generating a gain both in terms of health of the patients and correct resource allocation.

Informing the NCA: EPA's Climate Change Impact and Risk Analysis Framework

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sarofim, M. C.; Martinich, J.; Kolian, M.; Crimmins, A. R.

2017-12-01

The Climate Change Impact and Risk Analysis (CIRA) framework is designed to quantify the physical impacts and economic damages in the United States under future climate change scenarios. To date, the framework has been applied to 25 sectors, using scenarios and projections developed for the Fourth National Climate Assessment. The strength of this framework has been in the use of consistent climatic, socioeconomic, and technological assumptions and inputs across the impact sectors to maximize the ease of cross-sector comparison. The results of the underlying CIRA sectoral analyses are informing the sustained assessment process by helping to address key gaps related to economic valuation and risk. Advancing capacity and scientific literature in this area has created opportunity to consider future applications and strengthening of the framework. This presentation will describe the CIRA framework, present results for various sectors such as heat mortality, air & water quality, winter recreation, and sea level rise, and introduce potential enhancements that can improve the utility of the framework for decision analysis.

Evolution of strategic risks under future scenarios for improved utility master plans.

PubMed

Luís, Ana; Lickorish, Fiona; Pollard, Simon

2016-01-01

Integrated, long-term risk management in the water sector is poorly developed. Whilst scenario planning has been applied to singular issues (e.g. climate change), it often misses a link to risk management because the likelihood of impacts in the long-term are frequently unaccounted for in these analyses. Here we apply the morphological approach to scenario development for a case study utility, Empresa Portuguesa das Águas Livres (EPAL). A baseline portfolio of strategic risks threatening the achievement of EPAL's corporate objectives was evolved through the lens of three future scenarios, 'water scarcity', 'financial resource scarcity' and 'strong economic growth', built on drivers such as climate, demographic, economic, regulatory and technological changes and validated through a set of expert workshops. The results represent how the baseline set of risks might develop over a 30 year period, allowing threats and opportunities to be identified and enabling strategies for master plans to be devised. We believe this to be the first combined use of risk and futures methods applied to a portfolio of strategic risks in the water utility sector. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

The impact of range anxiety and home, workplace, and public charging infrastructure on simulated battery electric vehicle lifetime utility

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Neubauer, Jeremy; Wood, Eric

2014-07-01

Battery electric vehicles (BEVs) offer the potential to reduce both oil imports and greenhouse gas emissions, but have a limited utility due to factors including driver range anxiety and access to charging infrastructure. In this paper we apply NREL's Battery Lifetime Analysis and Simulation Tool for Vehicles (BLAST-V) to examine the sensitivity of BEV utility to range anxiety and different charging infrastructure scenarios, including variable time schedules, power levels, and locations (home, work, and public installations). We find that the effects of range anxiety can be significant, but are reduced with access to additional charging infrastructure. We also find that (1) increasing home charging power above that provided by a common 15 A, 120 V circuit offers little added utility, (2) workplace charging offers significant utility benefits to select high mileage commuters, and (3) broadly available public charging can bring many lower mileage drivers to near-100% utility while strongly increasing the achieved miles of high mileage drivers.

Dispersion modeling of accidental releases of toxic gases - utility for the fire brigades.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Stenzel, S.; Baumann-Stanzer, K.

2009-09-01

Several air dispersion models are available for prediction and simulation of the hazard areas associated with accidental releases of toxic gases. The most model packages (commercial or free of charge) include a chemical database, an intuitive graphical user interface (GUI) and automated graphical output for effective presentation of results. The models are designed especially for analyzing different accidental toxic release scenarios ("worst-case scenarios”), preparing emergency response plans and optimal countermeasures as well as for real-time risk assessment and management. The research project RETOMOD (reference scenarios calculations for toxic gas releases - model systems and their utility for the fire brigade) was conducted by the Central Institute for Meteorology and Geodynamics (ZAMG) in cooperation with the Viennese fire brigade, OMV Refining & Marketing GmbH and Synex Ries & Greßlehner GmbH. RETOMOD was funded by the KIRAS safety research program of the Austrian Ministry of Transport, Innovation and Technology (www.kiras.at). The main tasks of this project were 1. Sensitivity study and optimization of the meteorological input for modeling of the hazard areas (human exposure) during the accidental toxic releases. 2. Comparison of several model packages (based on reference scenarios) in order to estimate the utility for the fire brigades. For the purpose of our study the following models were tested and compared: ALOHA (Areal Location of Hazardous atmosphere, EPA), MEMPLEX (Keudel av-Technik GmbH), Trace (Safer System), Breeze (Trinity Consulting), SAM (Engineering office Lohmeyer). A set of reference scenarios for Chlorine, Ammoniac, Butane and Petrol were proceed, with the models above, in order to predict and estimate the human exposure during the event. Furthermore, the application of the observation-based analysis and forecasting system INCA, developed in the Central Institute for Meteorology and Geodynamics (ZAMG) in case of toxic release was investigated. INCA (Integrated Nowcasting through Comprehensive Analysis) data are calculated operationally with 1 km horizontal resolution and based on the weather forecast model ALADIN. The meteorological field's analysis with INCA include: Temperature, Humidity, Wind, Precipitation, Cloudiness and Global Radiation. In the frame of the project INCA data were compared with measurements from the meteorological observational network, conducted at traffic-near sites in Vienna. INCA analysis and very short term forecast fields (up to 6 hours) are found to be an advanced possibility to provide on-line meteorological input for the model package used by the fire brigade. Since the input requirements differ from model to model, and the outputs are based on unequal criteria for toxic area and exposure, a high degree of caution in the interpretation of the model results is required - especially in the case of slow wind speeds, stable atmospheric condition, and flow deflection by buildings in the urban area or by complex topography.

Hidden flows and waste processing--an analysis of illustrative futures.

PubMed

Schiller, F; Raffield, T; Angus, A; Herben, M; Young, P J; Longhurst, P J; Pollard, S J T

2010-12-14

An existing materials flow model is adapted (using Excel and AMBER model platforms) to account for waste and hidden material flows within a domestic environment. Supported by national waste data, the implications of legislative change, domestic resource depletion and waste technology advances are explored. The revised methodology offers additional functionality for economic parameters that influence waste generation and disposal. We explore this accounting system under hypothetical future waste and resource management scenarios, illustrating the utility of the model. A sensitivity analysis confirms that imports, domestic extraction and their associated hidden flows impact mostly on waste generation. The model offers enhanced utility for policy and decision makers with regard to economic mass balance and strategic waste flows, and may promote further discussion about waste technology choice in the context of reducing carbon budgets.

Scenarios of land use and land cover change in the conterminous United States: Utilizing the special report on emission scenarios at ecoregional scales

USGS Publications Warehouse

Sleeter, Benjamin M.; Sohl, Terry L.; Bouchard, Michelle A.; Reker, Ryan R.; Soulard, Christopher E.; Acevedo, William; Griffith, Glenn E.; Sleeter, Rachel R.; Auch, Roger F.; Sayler, Kristi L.; Prisley, Stephen; Zhu, Zhi-Liang

2012-01-01

Global environmental change scenarios have typically provided projections of land use and land cover for a relatively small number of regions or using a relatively coarse resolution spatial grid, and for only a few major sectors. The coarseness of global projections, in both spatial and thematic dimensions, often limits their direct utility at scales useful for environmental management. This paper describes methods to downscale projections of land-use and land-cover change from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change's Special Report on Emission Scenarios to ecological regions of the conterminous United States, using an integrated assessment model, land-use histories, and expert knowledge. Downscaled projections span a wide range of future potential conditions across sixteen land use/land cover sectors and 84 ecological regions, and are logically consistent with both historical measurements and SRES characteristics. Results appear to provide a credible solution for connecting regionalized projections of land use and land cover with existing downscaled climate scenarios, under a common set of scenario-based socioeconomic assumptions.

Servicing communication satellites in geostationary orbit

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Russell, Paul K.; Price, Kent M.

1990-01-01

The econmic benefits of a LEO space station are quantified by identifying alternative operating scenarios utilizing the space station's transportation facilities and assembly and repair facilities. Particular consideration is given to the analysis of the impact of on-orbit assembly and servicing on a typical communications satellite is analyzed. The results of this study show that on-orbit servicing can increase the internal rate of return by as much as 30 percent.

Insect E-probe Diagnostic Nucleic acid Analysis (EDNA): the application of a novel bioinformatic tool to detection of vectors and pathogens in individual insect and simulated insect trap metagenomes

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Plant pathogen detection takes many forms. In simple cases, researchers are attempting to detect a known pathogen from a known host utilizing targeted nucleic acid or antigenic assays. However, in more complex scenarios researchers may not know the identity of a pathogen, or they may need to screen ...

Expected utility of voluntary vaccination in the middle of an emergent Bluetongue virus serotype 8 epidemic: a decision analysis parameterized for Dutch circumstances.

PubMed

Sok, J; Hogeveen, H; Elbers, A R W; Velthuis, A G J; Oude Lansink, A G J M

2014-08-01

In order to put a halt to the Bluetongue virus serotype 8 (BTV-8) epidemic in 2008, the European Commission promoted vaccination at a transnational level as a new measure to combat BTV-8. Most European member states opted for a mandatory vaccination campaign, whereas the Netherlands, amongst others, opted for a voluntary campaign. For the latter to be effective, the farmer's willingness to vaccinate should be high enough to reach satisfactory vaccination coverage to stop the spread of the disease. This study looked at a farmer's expected utility of vaccination, which is expected to have a positive impact on the willingness to vaccinate. Decision analysis was used to structure the vaccination decision problem into decisions, events and payoffs, and to define the relationships among these elements. Two scenarios were formulated to distinguish farmers' mindsets, based on differences in dairy heifer management. For each of the scenarios, a decision tree was run for two years to study vaccination behaviour over time. The analysis was done based on the expected utility criterion. This allows to account for the effect of a farmer's risk preference on the vaccination decision. Probabilities were estimated by experts, payoffs were based on an earlier published study. According to the results of the simulation, the farmer decided initially to vaccinate against BTV-8 as the net expected utility of vaccination was positive. Re-vaccination was uncertain due to less expected costs of a continued outbreak. A risk averse farmer in this respect is more likely to re-vaccinate. When heifers were retained for export on the farm, the net expected utility of vaccination was found to be generally larger and thus was re-vaccination more likely to happen. For future animal health programmes that rely on a voluntary approach, results show that the provision of financial incentives can be adjusted to the farmers' willingness to vaccinate over time. Important in this respect are the decision moment and the characteristics of the disease. Farmers' perceptions of the disease risk and about the efficacy of available control options cannot be neglected. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Utility-Scale Photovoltaic Deployment Scenarios of the Western United States: Implications for Solar Energy Zones in Nevada

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Frew, Bethany; Mai, Trieu; Krishnan, Venkat

2016-12-01

In this study, we use the National Renewable Energy Laboratory's (NREL's) Regional Energy Deployment System (ReEDS) capacity expansion model to estimate utility-scale photovoltaic (UPV) deployment trends from present day through 2030. The analysis seeks to inform the U.S. Bureau of Land Management's (BLM's) planning activities related to UPV development on federal lands in Nevada as part of the Resource Management Plan (RMP) revision for the Las Vegas and Pahrump field offices. These planning activities include assessing the demand for new or expanded additional Solar Energy Zones (SEZ), per the process outlined in BLM's Western Solar Plan process.

Computational medicinal chemistry in fragment-based drug discovery: what, how and when.

PubMed

Rabal, Obdulia; Urbano-Cuadrado, Manuel; Oyarzabal, Julen

2011-01-01

The use of fragment-based drug discovery (FBDD) has increased in the last decade due to the encouraging results obtained to date. In this scenario, computational approaches, together with experimental information, play an important role to guide and speed up the process. By default, FBDD is generally considered as a constructive approach. However, such additive behavior is not always present, therefore, simple fragment maturation will not always deliver the expected results. In this review, computational approaches utilized in FBDD are reported together with real case studies, where applicability domains are exemplified, in order to analyze them, and then, maximize their performance and reliability. Thus, a proper use of these computational tools can minimize misleading conclusions, keeping the credit on FBDD strategy, as well as achieve higher impact in the drug-discovery process. FBDD goes one step beyond a simple constructive approach. A broad set of computational tools: docking, R group quantitative structure-activity relationship, fragmentation tools, fragments management tools, patents analysis and fragment-hopping, for example, can be utilized in FBDD, providing a clear positive impact if they are utilized in the proper scenario - what, how and when. An initial assessment of additive/non-additive behavior is a critical point to define the most convenient approach for fragments elaboration.

Evaluation of electrical power alternatives for the Pacific Northwest

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Not Available

This study evaluates the concept of implementation of large-scale energy conservation to reduce end-use demand for electrical energy as an alternative to the need for continued construction of new power plants to meet projected energy requirements for the Pacific Northwest. In particular, the numerical accuracy, economic feasibility, and institutional impact of a conservation-oriented scenario developed by the Natural Resources Defense Council, Inc., is assessed, relative to the energy forecast prepared by the Pacific Northwest Utilities Conference Commission. The results of this study are presented in four detailed sections following an introductory and summary section: Reconstruction and Numerical Evaluation of Alternativemore » Scenario; Economic Analysis; Institutional Impact; and Impact of New National Energy Policy.« less

Minimum intravenous thrombolysis utilization rates in acute ischemic stroke to achieve population effects on disability: A discrete-event simulation model.

PubMed

Hoffmeister, Lorena; Lavados, Pablo M; Mar, Javier; Comas, Merce; Arrospide, Arantzazu; Castells, Xavier

2016-06-15

The only pharmacological treatment with proven cost-effectiveness in reducing acute ischemic stroke (AIS) associated disability is intravenous thrombolysis with recombinant tissue plasminogen activator but it's utilization rate is still low in most of the world. We estimated the minimum thrombolysis utilization rate needed to decrease the prevalence of stroke-related disability at a population level by using a discrete-event simulation model. The model included efficacy according to time to treatment up to 4.5h, and four scenarios for the utilization of intravenous thrombolysis in eligible patients with AIS: a) 2%; b) 12% c) 25% and d) 40%. We calculated the prevalence of AIS related disability in each scenario, using population based data. The simulation was performed from 2002 to 2017 using the ARENA software. A 2% utilization rate yielded a prevalence of disability of 359.1 per 100,000. Increasing thrombolysis to 12% avoided 779 disabled patients. If the utilization rate was increased to 25%, 1783 disabled patients would be avoided. The maximum scenario of 40% decreased disability to 335.7 per 100,000, avoiding 17% of AIS-related disability. The current utilization rate of intravenous thrombolysis of 2% has minimal population impact. Increasing the rate of utilization to more than 12% is the minimum to have a significant population effect on disability and should be a public policy aim. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Long-term prospects for the environmental profile of advanced sugar cane ethanol.

PubMed

da Silva, Cinthia R U; Franco, Henrique Coutinho Junqueira; Junqueira, Tassia Lopes; van Oers, Lauran; van der Voet, Ester; Seabra, Joaquim E A

2014-10-21

This work assessed the environmental impacts of the production and use of 1 MJ of hydrous ethanol (E100) in Brazil in prospective scenarios (2020-2030), considering the deployment of technologies currently under development and better agricultural practices. The life cycle assessment technique was employed using the CML method for the life cycle impact assessment and the Monte Carlo method for the uncertainty analysis. Abiotic depletion, global warming, human toxicity, ecotoxicity, photochemical oxidation, acidification, and eutrophication were the environmental impacts categories analyzed. Results indicate that the proposed improvements (especially no-til farming-scenarios s2 and s4) would lead to environmental benefits in prospective scenarios compared to the current ethanol production (scenario s0). Combined first and second generation ethanol production (scenarios s3 and s4) would require less agricultural land but would not perform better than the projected first generation ethanol, although the uncertainties are relatively high. The best use of 1 ha of sugar cane was also assessed, considering the displacement of the conventional products by ethanol and electricity. No-til practices combined with the production of first generation ethanol and electricity (scenario s2) would lead to the largest mitigation effects for global warming and abiotic depletion. For the remaining categories, emissions would not be mitigated with the utilization of the sugar cane products. However, this conclusion is sensitive to the displaced electricity sources.

Pumping Optimization Model for Pump and Treat Systems - 15091

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Baker, S.; Ivarson, Kristine A.; Karanovic, M.

2015-01-15

Pump and Treat systems are being utilized to remediate contaminated groundwater in the Hanford 100 Areas adjacent to the Columbia River in Eastern Washington. Design of the systems was supported by a three-dimensional (3D) fate and transport model. This model provided sophisticated simulation capabilities but requires many hours to calculate results for each simulation considered. Many simulations are required to optimize system performance, so a two-dimensional (2D) model was created to reduce run time. The 2D model was developed as a equivalent-property version of the 3D model that derives boundary conditions and aquifer properties from the 3D model. It producesmore » predictions that are very close to the 3D model predictions, allowing it to be used for comparative remedy analyses. Any potential system modifications identified by using the 2D version are verified for use by running the 3D model to confirm performance. The 2D model was incorporated into a comprehensive analysis system (the Pumping Optimization Model, POM) to simplify analysis of multiple simulations. It allows rapid turnaround by utilizing a graphical user interface that: 1 allows operators to create hypothetical scenarios for system operation, 2 feeds the input to the 2D fate and transport model, and 3 displays the scenario results to evaluate performance improvement. All of the above is accomplished within the user interface. Complex analyses can be completed within a few hours and multiple simulations can be compared side-by-side. The POM utilizes standard office computing equipment and established groundwater modeling software.« less

Evaluating Detection and Estimation Capabilities of Magnetometer-Based Vehicle Sensors

DTIC Science & Technology

2012-05-01

fluxgate magnetometers whose operating characteristics are well documented [1, 2]. Such magnetometers measure two perpendicular magnetic components of...of surveillance scenarios. As part of that work, this analysis focuses on UGS utilizing of two-axis fluxgate magnetometers . Two MOPs are 12 -60 -40 -20...Proceedings of the IEEE, 78(6):973–989, June 1990. [2] E. M. Billingsley and S. W. Billingsley. Fluxgate magnetometers . Proceedings of the IEEE, 5090(194

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

McLean, B.J.

The paper outlines and/or gives data on the following: environmental concerns; goal of Title IV; national SO{sub 2} emissions; reductions in wet sulfate deposition; SO{sub 2} allowance program--benefits and costs; utility NO{sub x} emissions; NO{sub x} compliance options; cost effectiveness of NO{sub x} control; electric power regulations timeline; Clean Air power initiative; what a new approach would look like; and an analysis of NO{sub x} and SO{sub 2} cap and trade scenarios.

Global outlook for wood and forests with the bioenergy demand implied by scenarios of the intergovernmental panel on climate change

Treesearch

Ronald Raunikar; Joseph Buongiorno; James A. Turner; Shushuai Zhu

2010-01-01

The Global Forest Products Model (GFPM) was modified to link the forest sector to two scenarios of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), and to represent the utilization of fuelwood and industrial roundwood to produce biofuels. The scenarios examined were a subset of the “story lines” prepared by the IPCC. Each scenario has projections of population and...

Conservation planning under uncertainty in urban development and vegetation dynamics

PubMed Central

Carmel, Yohay

2018-01-01

Systematic conservation planning is a framework for optimally locating and prioritizing areas for conservation. An often-noted shortcoming of most conservation planning studies is that they do not address future uncertainty. The selection of protected areas that are intended to ensure the long-term persistence of biodiversity is often based on a snapshot of the current situation, ignoring processes such as climate change. Scenarios, in the sense of being accounts of plausible futures, can be utilized to identify conservation area portfolios that are robust to future uncertainty. We compared three approaches for utilizing scenarios in conservation area selection: considering a full set of scenarios (all-scenarios portfolio), assuming the realization of specific scenarios, and a reference strategy based on the current situation (current distributions portfolio). Our objective was to compare the robustness of these approaches in terms of their relative performance across future scenarios. We focused on breeding bird species in Israel’s Mediterranean region. We simulated urban development and vegetation dynamics scenarios 60 years into the future using DINAMICA-EGO, a cellular-automata simulation model. For each scenario, we mapped the target species’ available habitat distribution, identified conservation priority areas using the site-selection software MARXAN, and constructed conservation area portfolios using the three aforementioned strategies. We then assessed portfolio performance based on the number of species for which representation targets were met in each scenario. The all-scenarios portfolio consistently outperformed the other portfolios, and was more robust to ‘errors’ (e.g., when an assumed specific scenario did not occur). On average, the all-scenarios portfolio achieved representation targets for five additional species compared with the current distributions portfolio (approximately 33 versus 28 species). Our findings highlight the importance of considering a broad and meaningful set of scenarios, rather than relying on the current situation, the expected occurrence of specific scenarios, or the worst-case scenario. PMID:29621330

Conservation planning under uncertainty in urban development and vegetation dynamics.

PubMed

Troupin, David; Carmel, Yohay

2018-01-01

Systematic conservation planning is a framework for optimally locating and prioritizing areas for conservation. An often-noted shortcoming of most conservation planning studies is that they do not address future uncertainty. The selection of protected areas that are intended to ensure the long-term persistence of biodiversity is often based on a snapshot of the current situation, ignoring processes such as climate change. Scenarios, in the sense of being accounts of plausible futures, can be utilized to identify conservation area portfolios that are robust to future uncertainty. We compared three approaches for utilizing scenarios in conservation area selection: considering a full set of scenarios (all-scenarios portfolio), assuming the realization of specific scenarios, and a reference strategy based on the current situation (current distributions portfolio). Our objective was to compare the robustness of these approaches in terms of their relative performance across future scenarios. We focused on breeding bird species in Israel's Mediterranean region. We simulated urban development and vegetation dynamics scenarios 60 years into the future using DINAMICA-EGO, a cellular-automata simulation model. For each scenario, we mapped the target species' available habitat distribution, identified conservation priority areas using the site-selection software MARXAN, and constructed conservation area portfolios using the three aforementioned strategies. We then assessed portfolio performance based on the number of species for which representation targets were met in each scenario. The all-scenarios portfolio consistently outperformed the other portfolios, and was more robust to 'errors' (e.g., when an assumed specific scenario did not occur). On average, the all-scenarios portfolio achieved representation targets for five additional species compared with the current distributions portfolio (approximately 33 versus 28 species). Our findings highlight the importance of considering a broad and meaningful set of scenarios, rather than relying on the current situation, the expected occurrence of specific scenarios, or the worst-case scenario.

A multi-stakeholder framework for urban runoff quality management: Application of social choice and bargaining techniques.

PubMed

Ghodsi, Seyed Hamed; Kerachian, Reza; Zahmatkesh, Zahra

2016-04-15

In this paper, an integrated framework is proposed for urban runoff management. To control and improve runoff quality and quantity, Low Impact Development (LID) practices are utilized. In order to determine the LIDs' areas and locations, the Non-dominated Sorting Genetic Algorithm-II (NSGA-II), which considers three objective functions of minimizing runoff volume, runoff pollution and implementation cost of LIDs, is utilized. In this framework, the Storm Water Management Model (SWMM) is used for stream flow simulation. The non-dominated solutions provided by the NSGA-II are considered as management scenarios. To select the most preferred scenario, interactions among the main stakeholders in the study area with conflicting utilities are incorporated by utilizing bargaining models including a non-cooperative game, Nash model and social choice procedures of Borda count and approval voting. Moreover, a new social choice procedure, named pairwise voting method, is proposed and applied. Based on each conflict resolution approach, a scenario is identified as the ideal solution providing the LIDs' areas, locations and implementation cost. The proposed framework is applied for urban water quality and quantity management in the northern part of Tehran metropolitan city, Iran. Results show that the proposed pairwise voting method tends to select a scenario with a higher percentage of reduction in TSS (Total Suspended Solid) load and runoff volume, in comparison with the Borda count and approval voting methods. Besides, the Nash method presents a management scenario with the highest cost for LIDs' implementation and the maximum values for percentage of runoff volume reduction and TSS removal. The results also signify that selection of an appropriate management scenario by stakeholders in the study area depends on the available financial resources and the relative importance of runoff quality improvement in comparison with reducing the runoff volume. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Regional-Scale Forcing and Feedbacks from Alternative Scenarios of Global-Scale Land Use Change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jones, A. D.; Chini, L. P.; Collins, W.; Janetos, A. C.; Mao, J.; Shi, X.; Thomson, A. M.; Torn, M. S.

2011-12-01

Future patterns of land use change depend critically on the degree to which terrestrial carbon management strategies, such as biological carbon sequestration and biofuels, are utilized in order to mitigate global climate change. Furthermore, land use change associated with terrestrial carbon management induces biogeophysical changes to surface energy budgets that perturb climate at regional and possibly global scales, activating different feedback processes depending on the nature and location of the land use change. As a first step in a broader effort to create an integrated earth system model, we examine two scenarios of future anthropogenic activity generated by the Global Change Assessment Model (GCAM) within the full-coupled Community Earth System Model (CESM). Each scenario stabilizes radiative forcing from greenhouse gases and aerosols at 4.5 W/m^2. In the first, stabilization is achieved through a universal carbon tax that values terrestrial carbon equally with fossil carbon, leading to modest afforestation globally and low biofuel utilization. In the second scenario, stabilization is achieved with a tax on fossil fuel and industrial carbon alone. In this case, biofuel utilization increases dramatically and crop area expands to claim approximately 50% of forest cover globally. By design, these scenarios exhibit identical climate forcing from atmospheric constituents. Thus, differences among them can be attributed to the biogeophysical effects of land use change. In addition, we utilize offline radiative transfer and offline land model simulations to identify forcing and feedback mechanisms operating in different regions. We find that boreal deforestation has a strong climatic signature due to significant albedo change coupled with a regional-scale water vapor feedback. Tropical deforestation, on the other hand, has more subtle effects on climate. Globally, the two scenarios yield warming trends over the 21st century that differ by 0.5 degrees Celsius. This work demonstrates the importance of land use in shaping future patterns of climate change, both globally and regionally.

Space-based laser-powered orbital transfer vehicle (Project SLICK)

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

1988-01-01

A conceptual design study of a laser-powered orbital transfer vehicle (LOTV) is presented. The LOTV, nicknamed SLICK (Space Laser Interorbital Cargo Kite), will be utilized for the transfer of 16000 kg of cargo between Low Earth Orbit (LEO) and either Geosynchronous Earth Orbit (GEO) or Low Lunar Orbit (LLO). This design concentrates primarily on the LEO/GEO scenario, which will have typical LEO-to-GEO trip time of 6 days and two return versions. One version uses an all propulsive return while the other utilizes a ballute aerobrake for the return trip. Furthermore, three return cargo options of 16000 kg, 5000 kg (standard option), and 1600 kg are considered for this scenario. The LEO/LLO scenario uses only a standard, aerobraked version. The basic concept behind the LOTV is that the power for the propulsion system is supplied by a source separate from the LOTV itself. For the LEO/GEO scenario the LOTV utilizes a direct solar-pumped iodide laser and possibly two relay stations, all orbiting at an altitude of one Earth radius and zero inclination. An additional nuclear-powered laser is placed on the Moon for the LEO/LLO scenario. The propulsion system of the LOTV consists of a single engine fueled with liquid hydrogen. The laser beam is captured and directed by a four mirror optical system through a window in the thrust chamber of the engine. There, seven plasmas are created to convert the laser beam energy into thermal energy at an efficiency of at least 50 percent. For the LEO/LLO scenario the laser propulsion is supplemented by LH2/LOX chemical thrusters.

Space resources. Volume 1: Scenarios

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Mckay, Mary Fae (Editor); Mckay, David S. (Editor); Duke, Michael B. (Editor)

1992-01-01

A number of possible future paths for space exploration and development are presented. The topics covered include the following: (1) the baseline program; (2) alternative scenarios utilizing nonterrestrial resources; (3) impacts of sociopolitical conditions; (4) common technologies; and issues for further study.

Dental health state utility values associated with tooth loss in two contrasting cultures.

PubMed

Nassani, M Z; Locker, D; Elmesallati, A A; Devlin, H; Mohammadi, T M; Hajizamani, A; Kay, E J

2009-08-01

The study aimed to assess the value placed on oral health states by measuring the utility of mouths in which teeth had been lost and to explore variations in utility values within and between two contrasting cultures, UK and Iran. One hundred and fifty eight patients, 84 from UK and 74 from Iran, were recruited from clinics at University-based faculties of dentistry. All had experienced tooth loss and had restored or unrestored dental spaces. They were presented with 19 different scenarios of mouths with missing teeth. Fourteen involved the loss of one tooth and five involved shortened dental arches (SDAs) with varying numbers of missing posterior teeth. Each written description was accompanied by a verbal explanation and digital pictures of mouth models. Participants were asked to indicate on a standardized Visual Analogue Scale how they would value the health of their mouth if they had lost the tooth/teeth described and the resulting space was left unrestored. With a utility value of 0.0 representing the worst possible health state for a mouth and 1.0 representing the best, the mouth with the upper central incisor missing attracted the lowest utility value in both samples (UK = 0.16; Iran = 0.06), while the one with a missing upper second molar the highest utility values (0.42, 0.39 respectively). In both countries the utility value increased as the tooth in the scenario moved from the anterior towards the posterior aspect of the mouth. There were significant differences in utility values between UK and Iranian samples for four scenarios all involving the loss of anterior teeth. These differences remained after controlling for gender, age and the state of the dentition. With respect to the SDA scenarios, a mouth with a SDA with only the second molar teeth missing in all quadrants attracted the highest utility values, while a mouth with an extreme SDA with both missing molar and premolar teeth in all quadrants attracted the lowest utility values. The study provided further evidence of the validity of the scaling approach to utility measurement in mouths with missing teeth. Some cross-cultural variations in values were observed but these should be viewed with due caution because the magnitude of the differences was small.

Optimized ISRU Propellants for Propulsion and Power Needs for Future Mars Colonization

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rice, Eric E.; Gustafson, Robert J.; Gramer, Daniel J.; Chiaverini, Martin J.; Teeter, Ronald R.; White, Brant C.

2003-01-01

In recent studies (Rice, 2000, 2002) conducted by ORBITEC for the NASA Institute for Advanced Concepts (NIAC), we conceptualized systems and an evolving optimized architecture for producing and utilizing Mars-based in-situ space resources utilization (ISRU) propellant combinations for future Mars colonization. The propellants are to be used to support the propulsion and power systems for ground and flight vehicles. The key aspect of the study was to show the benefits of ISRU, develop an analysis methodology, as well as provide guidance to propellant system choices in the future based upon what is known today about Mars. The study time frame included an early unmanned and manned exploration period (through 2040) and two colonization scenarios that are postulated to occur from 2040 to 2090. As part of this feasibility study, ORBITEC developed two different Mars colonization scenarios: a low case that ends with a 100-person colony (an Antarctica analogy) and a high case that ends with a 10,000-person colony (a Mars terraforming scenario). A population growth model, mission traffic model, and infrastructure model were developed for each scenario to better understand the requirements of future Mars colonies. Additionally, propellant and propulsion systems design concepts were developed. Cost models were also developed to allow comparison of the different ISRU propellant approaches. This paper summarizes the overall results of the study. ISRU proved to be a key enabler for these colonization missions. Carbon monoxide and oxygen, proved to be the most cost-effective ISRU propellant combination. The entire final reports Phase I and II) and all the details can be found at the NIAC website www.niac.usra.edu.

Assessment and comparison of three high-aluminum fly ash utilization scenarios in Inner Mongolia, China using an eco-efficiency indicator.

PubMed

Yang, Shuo; Lin, Ling; Li, Shao Peng; Li, Qiang; Wang, Xiu Teng; Sun, Liang

2017-05-01

Utilization of fly ash is of great importance in China in the context of resource and environmental crises. Different fly ash utilization processes are proposed, and some have been practically applied. However, none of these fly ash utilization pathways has been evaluated comprehensively by integrating both environmental and economic perspectives. In this study, three high-aluminum fly ash utilization methods in Mongolia were assessed and compared based on the concept of eco-efficiency. The environmental assessment was conducted in accordance with life-cycle assessment principles, and a monetization-weighting approach was applied to obtain social willingness-to-pay as a reflection of environmental impact. The environmental assessment results revealed that the reuse of fly ash had significant advantage for saving primary resource, while solid waste, depletion of water, and global warming were the three highest environmental impacts from the life cycle perspective. The economic performance assessment showed positive net profits for fly ash utilization, but high value-added products were not necessarily indicative of better economic performance due to the relatively high operation cost. Comparison of the eco-efficiency indicators (EEIs) implied that the process of scenario 1#, which produced mullite ceramic and active calcium silicate, was the most recommended out of the three scenarios on the present scale. This judgment was consistent with the evaluation of the resource utilization rate. The present study showed that the EEI could be used to compare different fly ash utilization processes in a comprehensive and objective manner, thus providing definitive and insightful suggestions for decision-making and technical improvement.

Meeting China's electricity needs through clean energy sources: A 2030 low-carbon energy roadmap

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hu, Zheng

China is undergoing rapid economic development that generates significant increase in energy demand, primarily for electricity. Energy supply in China is heavily relying on coal, which leads to high carbon emissions. This dissertation explores opportunities for meeting China's growing power demand through clean energy sources. The utilization of China's clean energy sources as well as demand-side management is still at the initial phase. Therefore, development of clean energy sources would require substantial government support in order to be competitive in the market. One of the widely used means to consider clean energy in power sector supplying is Integrated Resource Strategic Planning, which aims to minimize the long term electricity costs while screening various power supply options for the power supply and demand analysis. The IRSP tool tackles the energy problem from the perspective of power sector regulators, and provides different policy scenarios to quantify the impacts of combined incentives. Through three scenario studies, Business as Usual, High Renewable, and Renewable and Demand Side Management, this dissertation identifies the optimized scenario for China to achieve the clean energy target of 2030. The scenarios are assessed through energy, economics, environment, and equity dimensions.

A Modeled Analysis of Telehealth Methods for Treating Pressure Ulcers after Spinal Cord Injury

PubMed Central

Smith, Mark W.; Hill, Michelle L.; Hopkins, Karen L.; Kiratli, B. Jenny; Cronkite, Ruth C.

2012-01-01

Home telehealth can improve clinical outcomes for conditions that are common among patients with spinal cord injury (SCI). However, little is known about the costs and potential savings associated with its use. We developed clinical scenarios that describe common situations in treatment or prevention of pressure ulcers. We calculated the cost implications of using telehealth for each scenario and under a range of reasonable assumptions. Data were gathered primarily from US Department of Veterans Affairs (VA) administrative records. For each scenario and treatment method, we multiplied probabilities, frequencies, and costs to determine the expected cost over the entire treatment period. We generated low-, medium-, and high-cost estimates based on reasonable ranges of costs and probabilities. Telehealth care was less expensive than standard care when low-cost technology was used but often more expensive when high-cost, interactive devices were installed in the patient's home. Increased utilization of telehealth technology (particularly among rural veterans with SCI) could reduce the incidence of stage III and stage IV ulcers, thereby improving veterans' health and quality of care without increasing costs. Future prospective studies of our present scenarios using patients with various healthcare challenges are recommended. PMID:22969798

Build Resilience at Your Utility

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

CREAT allows users to evaluate potential impacts of climate change on their utility and to evaluate adaptation options to address them using both traditional risk assessment and scenario-based decision making.

Economic Analysis Case Studies of Battery Energy Storage with SAM

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

DiOrio, Nicholas; Dobos, Aron; Janzou, Steven

2015-11-01

Interest in energy storage has continued to increase as states like California have introduced mandates and subsidies to spur adoption. This energy storage includes customer sited behind-the-meter storage coupled with photovoltaics (PV). This paper presents case study results from California and Tennessee, which were performed to assess the economic benefit of customer-installed systems. Different dispatch strategies, including manual scheduling and automated peak-shaving were explored to determine ideal ways to use the storage system to increase the system value and mitigate demand charges. Incentives, complex electric tariffs, and site specific load and PV data were used to perform detailed analysis. Themore » analysis was performed using the free, publically available System Advisor Model (SAM) tool. We find that installation of photovoltaics with a lithium-ion battery system priced at $300/kWh in Los Angeles under a high demand charge utility rate structure and dispatched using perfect day-ahead forecasting yields a positive net-present value, while all other scenarios cost the customer more than the savings accrued. Different dispatch strategies, including manual scheduling and automated peak-shaving were explored to determine ideal ways to use the storage system to increase the system value and mitigate demand charges. Incentives, complex electric tariffs, and site specific load and PV data were used to perform detailed analysis. The analysis was performed using the free, publically available System Advisor Model (SAM) tool. We find that installation of photovoltaics with a lithium-ion battery system priced at $300/kWh in Los Angeles under a high demand charge utility rate structure and dispatched using perfect day-ahead forecasting yields a positive net-present value, while all other scenarios cost the customer more than the savings accrued.« less

Impact of electric vehicles on the IEEE 34 node distribution infrastructure

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Jiang, Zeming; Shalalfel, Laith; Beshir, Mohammed J.

With the growing penetration of the electric vehicles to our daily life owing to their economic and environmental benefits, there will be both opportunities and challenges to the utilities when adopting plug-in electric vehicles (PEV) to the distribution network. In this study, a thorough analysis based on real-world project is conducted to evaluate the impacts of electric vehicles infrastructure on the grid relating to system load flow, load factor, and voltage stability. IEEE 34 node test feeder was selected and tested along with different case scenarios utilizing the electrical distribution design (EDD) software to find out the potential impacts tomore » the grid.« less

Impact of electric vehicles on the IEEE 34 node distribution infrastructure

DOE PAGES

Jiang, Zeming; Shalalfel, Laith; Beshir, Mohammed J.

2014-10-01

With the growing penetration of the electric vehicles to our daily life owing to their economic and environmental benefits, there will be both opportunities and challenges to the utilities when adopting plug-in electric vehicles (PEV) to the distribution network. In this study, a thorough analysis based on real-world project is conducted to evaluate the impacts of electric vehicles infrastructure on the grid relating to system load flow, load factor, and voltage stability. IEEE 34 node test feeder was selected and tested along with different case scenarios utilizing the electrical distribution design (EDD) software to find out the potential impacts tomore » the grid.« less

A COMPUTATIONAL FRAMEWORK FOR EVALUATION OF NPS MANAGEMENT SCENARIOS: ROLE OF PARAMETER UNCERTAINTY

EPA Science Inventory

Utility of complex distributed-parameter watershed models for evaluation of the effectiveness of non-point source sediment and nutrient abatement scenarios such as Best Management Practices (BMPs) often follows the traditional {calibrate ---> validate ---> predict} procedure. Des...

A formal framework for scenario development in support of environmental decision-making

USGS Publications Warehouse

Mahmoud, M.; Liu, Yajing; Hartmann, H.; Stewart, S.; Wagener, T.; Semmens, D.; Stewart, R.; Gupta, H.; Dominguez, D.; Dominguez, F.; Hulse, D.; Letcher, R.; Rashleigh, Brenda; Smith, C.; Street, R.; Ticehurst, J.; Twery, M.; van, Delden H.; Waldick, R.; White, D.; Winter, L.

2009-01-01

Scenarios are possible future states of the world that represent alternative plausible conditions under different assumptions. Often, scenarios are developed in a context relevant to stakeholders involved in their applications since the evaluation of scenario outcomes and implications can enhance decision-making activities. This paper reviews the state-of-the-art of scenario development and proposes a formal approach to scenario development in environmental decision-making. The discussion of current issues in scenario studies includes advantages and obstacles in utilizing a formal scenario development framework, and the different forms of uncertainty inherent in scenario development, as well as how they should be treated. An appendix for common scenario terminology has been attached for clarity. Major recommendations for future research in this area include proper consideration of uncertainty in scenario studies in particular in relation to stakeholder relevant information, construction of scenarios that are more diverse in nature, and sharing of information and resources among the scenario development research community. ?? 2008 Elsevier Ltd.

Decision support framework for evaluating the operational environment of forest bioenergy production and use: Case of four European countries.

PubMed

Pezdevšek Malovrh, Špela; Kurttila, Mikko; Hujala, Teppo; Kärkkäinen, Leena; Leban, Vasja; Lindstad, Berit H; Peters, Dörte Marie; Rhodius, Regina; Solberg, Birger; Wirth, Kristina; Zadnik Stirn, Lidija; Krč, Janez

2016-09-15

Complex policy-making situations around bioenergy production and use require examination of the operational environment of the society and a participatory approach. This paper presents and demonstrates a three-phase decision-making framework for analysing the operational environment of strategies related to increased forest bioenergy targets. The framework is based on SWOT (strengths, weaknesses, opportunities and threats) analysis and the Simple Multi-Attribute Rating Technique (SMART). Stakeholders of four case countries (Finland, Germany, Norway and Slovenia) defined the factors that affect the operational environments, classified in four pre-set categories (Forest Characteristics and Management, Policy Framework, Technology and Science, and Consumers and Society). The stakeholders participated in weighting of SWOT items for two future scenarios with SMART technique. The first scenario reflected the current 2020 targets (the Business-as-Usual scenario), and the second scenario contained a further increase in the targets (the Increase scenario). This framework can be applied to various problems of environmental management and also to other fields where public decision-making is combined with stakeholders' engagement. The case results show that the greatest differences between the scenarios appear in Germany, indicating a notably negative outlook for the Increase scenario, while the smallest differences were found in Finland. Policy Framework was a highly rated category across the countries, mainly with respect to weaknesses and threats. Intensified forest bioenergy harvesting and utilization has potentially wide country-specific impacts which need to be anticipated and considered in national policies and public dialogue. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

The effects of country-level population policy for enhancing adaptation to climate change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gunasekara, N. K.; Kazama, S.; Yamazaki, D.; Oki, T.

2013-11-01

The effectiveness of population policy in reducing the combined impacts of population change and climate change on water resources is explored. One no-policy scenario and two scenarios with population policy assumptions are employed in combination with water availability under the SRES scenarios A1b, B1 and A2 for the impact analysis. The population data used are from the World Bank. The river discharges per grid of horizontal resolution 0.5° are obtained from the Total Runoff Integrating Pathways (TRIP) of the University of Tokyo, Japan. Unlike the population scenarios utilized in the SRES emission scenarios and the newest representative concentration pathways, the scenarios employed in this research are based, even after 2050, on country-level rather than regional-level growth assumptions. Our analysis implies that the heterogeneous pattern of population changes across the world is the dominant driver of water stress, irrespective of future greenhouse gas emissions, with highest impacts occurring in the already water-stressed low latitudes. In 2100, Africa, Middle East and parts of Asia are under extreme water stress under all scenarios. The sensitivity analysis reveals that a small reduction in populations over the region could relieve a large number of people from high water stress, while a further increase in population from the assumed levels (SC1) might not increase the number of people under high water stress considerably. Most of the population increase towards 2100 occurs in the already water-stressed lower latitudes. Therefore, population reduction policies are recommended for this region as a method of adaptation to the future water stress conditions. Population reduction policies will facilitate more control over their future development pathways, even if these countries were not able to contribute significantly to greenhouse gas (GHG) emission cuts due to economic constraints. However, for the European region, the population living in water-stressed regions is almost 20 times lower than that in the lower latitudes. For countries with high population momentum, the population policy scenario with fertility-reduction assumptions gained a maximum of 6.1 times the water availability in Niger and 5.3 times that in Uganda compared with the no-policy scenario. Most of these countries are in sub-Saharan Africa. These countries represent 24.5% of the global population in the no-policy scenario, and the scenario with fertility-reduction assumptions reduces it to 8.7% by 2100. This scenario is also effective in reducing the area under extreme water stress in these countries. However, the policy scenario with assumptions of population stabilization at the replacement fertility rate increases the water stress in high-latitude countries. Nevertheless, the impact is low due to the high per capita water availability in the region. This research is expected to widen the understanding of the combined impacts of climate change in the future and of the strategies needed to enhance the space for adaptation.

Assessing Performance Outcomes of New Graduates Utilizing Simulation in a Military Transition Program

DTIC Science & Technology

2013-01-01

pretest and posttests ( p G .05). An additional analysis was conducted to determine if there were differences in outcomes based on whether par- ticipants...would be predicted based on FIGURE 1 Pretest and posttest mean performance scores for all 26 objectives of the anaphylaxis scenario. FIGURE 2 Pretest ...clinical practice. Another limitation of the study is the use of a pretest / posttest designwithout a control group for comparison of results. Finally

Assessing the impact of nuclear retirements on the U.S. power sector

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Richards, James; Cole, Wesley J.

This work utilizes the Regional Energy Deployment System (ReEDS) model to analyze the impacts of four nuclear retirement scenarios of the U.S. electricity sector, from nuclear plant lifetimes of 50 to 80 years. The analysis finds that longer nuclear lifetimes decrease the amount of renewable and natural gas capacity. Longer nuclear lifetimes also resulted in lower cumulative and annual carbon emissions, lower transmission builds, and higher energy curtailment and water usage.

A Delphi forecast of technology in education

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Robinson, B. E.

1973-01-01

The results are reported of a Delphi forecast of the utilization and social impacts of large-scale educational telecommunications technology. The focus is on both forecasting methodology and educational technology. The various methods of forecasting used by futurists are analyzed from the perspective of the most appropriate method for a prognosticator of educational technology, and review and critical analysis are presented of previous forecasts and studies. Graphic responses, summarized comments, and a scenario of education in 1990 are presented.

The impact of different scenarios for intermittent bladder catheterization on health state utilities: results from an internet-based time trade-off survey.

PubMed

Averbeck, Márcio Augusto; Krassioukov, Andrei; Thiruchelvam, Nikesh; Madersbacher, Helmut; Bøgelund, Mette; Igawa, Yasuhiko

2018-06-08

Intermittent catheterization (IC) is the gold standard for bladder management in patients with chronic urinary retention. Despite its medical benefits, IC-users experience a negative impact on their quality of life (QoL). For health economics based decision making, this impact is normally measured using generic QoL measures (such as EQ-5D) that estimate a single utility score which can be used to calculate Quality-Adjusted Life Years (QALYs). But these generic measures may not be sensitive to all relevant aspects of QoL affected by intermittent catheters. This study used alternative methods to estimate the health state utilities associated with different scenarios: using a multiple-use catheter, one-time-use catheter, pre-lubricated one-time-use catheter, and pre-lubricated one-time-use catheter with one less urinary tract infection (UTI) per year. Health state utilities were elicited through an internet-based Time Trade-Off (TTO) survey in adult volunteers representing the general population in Canada and the UK. Health states were developed to represent the catheters based on the following four attributes: steps and time needed for IC process, pain and the frequency of UTIs. The survey was completed by 956 respondents. One-time-use catheters, pre-lubricated one-time-use catheters and ready-to-use catheters were preferred to multiple-use catheters. The utility gains were associated with the following features: one-time-use (Canada: +0.013, UK: +0.021), ready-to-use (all: +0.017), and one less UTI/year (all: +0.011). Internet-based survey responders may have valued health states differently than the rest of the population: this might be a source of bias. Steps and time needed for the IC process, pain related to IC, and the frequency of UTIs have a significant impact on IC related utilities. These values could be incorporated into a cost utility analysis.

Modeling urban storm rainfall runoff from diverse underlying surfaces and application for control design in Beijing.

PubMed

Ouyang, Wei; Guo, Bobo; Hao, Fanghua; Huang, Haobo; Li, Junqi; Gong, Yongwei

2012-12-30

Managing storm rainfall runoff is paramount in semi-arid regions with urban development. In Beijing, pollution prevention in urban storm runoff and storm water utilization has been identified as the primary strategy for urban water management. In this paper, we sampled runoff during storm rainfall events and analyzed the concentration of chemical oxygen demand (COD), total suspended solids (TSS) and total phosphorus (TP) in the runoff. Furthermore, the first flush effect of storm rainfall from diverse underlying surfaces was also analyzed. With the Storm Water Management Model (SWMM), the different impervious rates of underlying surfaces during the storm runoff process were expressed. The removal rates of three typical pollutants and their interactions with precipitation and underlying surfaces were identified. From these rates, the scenarios regarding the urban storm runoff pollution loading from different designs of underlying previous rates were assessed with the SWMM. First flush effect analysis showed that the first 20% of the storm runoff should be discarded, which can help in utilizing the storm water resource. The results of this study suggest that the SWMM can express in detail the storm water pollution patterns from diverse underlying surfaces in Beijing, which significantly affected water quality. The scenario analysis demonstrated that impervious rate adjustment has the potential to reduce runoff peak and decrease pollution loading. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Joint principal trend analysis for longitudinal high-dimensional data.

PubMed

Zhang, Yuping; Ouyang, Zhengqing

2018-06-01

We consider a research scenario motivated by integrating multiple sources of information for better knowledge discovery in diverse dynamic biological processes. Given two longitudinal high-dimensional datasets for a group of subjects, we want to extract shared latent trends and identify relevant features. To solve this problem, we present a new statistical method named as joint principal trend analysis (JPTA). We demonstrate the utility of JPTA through simulations and applications to gene expression data of the mammalian cell cycle and longitudinal transcriptional profiling data in response to influenza viral infections. © 2017, The International Biometric Society.

Designing Agent Collectives For Systems With Markovian Dynamics

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Wolpert, David H.; Lawson, John W.

2004-01-01

The Collective Intelligence (COIN) framework concerns the design of collectives of agents so that as those agents strive to maximize their individual utility functions, their interaction causes a provided world utility function concerning the entire collective to be also maximized. Here we show how to extend that framework to scenarios having Markovian dynamics when no re-evolution of the system from counter-factual initial conditions (an often expensive calculation) is permitted. Our approach transforms the (time-extended) argument of each agent's utility function before evaluating that function. This transformation has benefits in scenarios not involving Markovian dynamics of an agent's utility function are observable. We investigate this transformation in simulations involving both hear and quadratic (nonlinear) dynamics. In addition, we find that a certain subset of these transformations, which result in utilities that have low opacity (analogous to having high signal to noise) but are not factored (analogous to not being incentive compatible), reliably improve performance over that arising with factored utilities. We also present a Taylor Series method for the fully general nonlinear case.

CREAT Risk Assessment Application for Water Utilities

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

CREAT allows users to evaluate potential impacts of climate change on their utility and to evaluate adaptation options to address them using both traditional risk assessment and scenario-based decision making.

Evaluating water management scenarios to support habitat management for the Cape Sable seaside sparrow

USGS Publications Warehouse

Beerens, James M.; Romañach, Stephanie S.; McKelvy, Mark

2016-06-22

The endangered Cape Sable seaside sparrow (Ammodramus maritimus mirabilis) is endemic to south Florida and a key indicator species of marl prairie, a highly diverse freshwater community in the Florida Everglades. Maintenance and creation of suitable habitat is seen as the most important pathway to the persistence of the six existing sparrow subpopulations; however, major uncertainties remain in how to increase suitable habitat within and surrounding these subpopulations, which are vulnerable to environmental stochasticity. Currently, consistently suitable conditions for the Cape Sable seaside sparrow are only present in two of these subpopulations (B and E). The water management scenarios evaluated herein were intended to lower water levels and improve habitat conditions in subpopulation A and D, raise water levels to improve habitat conditions in subpopulations C and F, and minimize impacts to subpopulations B and E. Our objective in this analysis was to compare these scenarios utilizing a set of metrics (short- to long-time scales) that relate habitat suitability to hydrologic conditions. Although hydrologic outputs are similar across scenarios in subpopulation A, scenario R2H reaches the hydroperiod and depth suitability targets more than the other scenarios relative to ECB, while minimizing negative consequences to subpopulation E. However, although R2H hydroperiods are longer than those for ECB during the wet season in subpopulations C and F, depths during the breeding season are predicted to decrease in suitability (less than -50 cm) relative to existing conditions.

A value-based medicine cost-utility analysis of idiopathic epiretinal membrane surgery.

PubMed

Gupta, Omesh P; Brown, Gary C; Brown, Melissa M

2008-05-01

To perform a reference case, cost-utility analysis of epiretinal membrane (ERM) surgery using current literature on outcomes and complications. Computer-based, value-based medicine analysis. Decision analyses were performed under two scenarios: ERM surgery in better-seeing eye and ERM surgery in worse-seeing eye. The models applied long-term published data primarily from the Blue Mountains Eye Study and the Beaver Dam Eye Study. Visual acuity and major complications were derived from 25-gauge pars plana vitrectomy studies. Patient-based, time trade-off utility values, Markov modeling, sensitivity analysis, and net present value adjustments were used in the design and calculation of results. Main outcome measures included the number of discounted quality-adjusted-life-years (QALYs) gained and dollars spent per QALY gained. ERM surgery in the better-seeing eye compared with observation resulted in a mean gain of 0.755 discounted QALYs (3% annual rate) per patient treated. This model resulted in $4,680 per QALY for this procedure. When sensitivity analysis was performed, utility values varied from $6,245 to $3,746/QALY gained, medical costs varied from $3,510 to $5,850/QALY gained, and ERM recurrence rate increased to $5,524/QALY. ERM surgery in the worse-seeing eye compared with observation resulted in a mean gain of 0.27 discounted QALYs per patient treated. The $/QALY was $16,146 with a range of $20,183 to $12,110 based on sensitivity analyses. Utility values ranged from $21,520 to $12,916/QALY and ERM recurrence rate increased to $16,846/QALY based on sensitivity analysis. ERM surgery is a very cost-effective procedure when compared with other interventions across medical subspecialties.

Development of a GIS-based spill management information system.

PubMed

Martin, Paul H; LeBoeuf, Eugene J; Daniel, Edsel B; Dobbins, James P; Abkowitz, Mark D

2004-08-30

Spill Management Information System (SMIS) is a geographic information system (GIS)-based decision support system designed to effectively manage the risks associated with accidental or intentional releases of a hazardous material into an inland waterway. SMIS provides critical planning and impact information to emergency responders in anticipation of, or following such an incident. SMIS couples GIS and database management systems (DBMS) with the 2-D surface water model CE-QUAL-W2 Version 3.1 and the air contaminant model Computer-Aided Management of Emergency Operations (CAMEO) while retaining full GIS risk analysis and interpretive capabilities. Live 'real-time' data links are established within the spill management software to utilize current meteorological information and flowrates within the waterway. Capabilities include rapid modification of modeling conditions to allow for immediate scenario analysis and evaluation of 'what-if' scenarios. The functionality of the model is illustrated through a case study of the Cheatham Reach of the Cumberland River near Nashville, TN.

Economic analysis of microaerobic removal of H2S from biogas in full-scale sludge digesters.

PubMed

Díaz, I; Ramos, I; Fdz-Polanco, M

2015-09-01

The application of microaerobic conditions during sludge digestion has been proven to be an efficient method for H2S removal from biogas. In this study, three microaerobic treatments were considered as an alternative to the technique of biogas desulfurization applied (FeCl3 dosing to the digesters) in a WWTP comprising three full-scale anaerobic reactors treating sewage sludge, depending on the reactant: pure O2 from cryogenic tanks, concentrated O2 from PSA generators, and air. These alternatives were compared in terms of net present value (NPV) with a fourth scenario consisting in the utilization of iron-sponge-bed filter inoculated with thiobacteria. The analysis revealed that the most profitable alternative to FeCl3 addition was the injection of concentrated O2 (0.0019 €/m(3) biogas), and this scenario presented the highest robustness towards variations in the price of FeCl3, electricity, and in the H2S concentration. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Adaptive subdomain modeling: A multi-analysis technique for ocean circulation models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Altuntas, Alper; Baugh, John

2017-07-01

Many coastal and ocean processes of interest operate over large temporal and geographical scales and require a substantial amount of computational resources, particularly when engineering design and failure scenarios are also considered. This study presents an adaptive multi-analysis technique that improves the efficiency of these computations when multiple alternatives are being simulated. The technique, called adaptive subdomain modeling, concurrently analyzes any number of child domains, with each instance corresponding to a unique design or failure scenario, in addition to a full-scale parent domain providing the boundary conditions for its children. To contain the altered hydrodynamics originating from the modifications, the spatial extent of each child domain is adaptively adjusted during runtime depending on the response of the model. The technique is incorporated in ADCIRC++, a re-implementation of the popular ADCIRC ocean circulation model with an updated software architecture designed to facilitate this adaptive behavior and to utilize concurrent executions of multiple domains. The results of our case studies confirm that the method substantially reduces computational effort while maintaining accuracy.

The outweigh of toxicity versus risk of recurrence for adjuvant interferon therapy: a survey in German melanoma patients and their treating physicians.

PubMed

Kähler, Katharina C; Blome, Christine; Forschner, Andrea; Gutzmer, Ralf; Hauschild, Axel; Heinzerling, Lucie; Livingstone, Elisabeth; Loquai, Carmen; Müller-Brenne, Tina; Schadendorf, Dirk; Utikal, Jochen; Wagner, Tobias; Augustin, Matthias

2018-05-25

After more than two decades with interferon alfa-2a and 2b (IFN) as the only approved drugs in the adjuvant setting for melanoma, new treatment approaches like immune checkpoint inhibitors and BRAF-MEK inhibitors improve the progression free survival (PFS) and also the overall survival (OS). We compared physicians' preferences ("utilities") for health states associated with IFN therapy to their patients' preferences. Utilities describe a preference for a specific health state on a scale of 0 (as bad as death) to 1.0 (perfect health). We assessed utilities for health states associated with adjuvant IFN using the standard gamble technique in 108 physicians and 130 melanoma patients. Four IFN toxicity scenarios and three outcome scenarios were given to the participants. Both groups were asked for the 5-year disease free survival (DFS) they would need to accept the described IFN-related side effects. In both groups, utilities for melanoma relapse were significantly lower than for IFN side effects, showing that toxicity was more acceptable than relapse. Physicians indicated higher utilities for each scenario and needed lower 5-year DFS both in case of mild-to-moderate and severe side effects. Patients were willing to tolerate mild-to-moderate and severe toxicity for a 50% and 75% chance of 5-year DFS, while physicians only required a chance of 40% and 50%, respectively. Both physicians and patients rated melanoma recurrence much lower than even severe IFN side effects. In direct comparison, physicians rated cancer-related scenarios more positively and accepted IFN toxicity for an even lower treatment benefit.

Quantifying patient preferences for symptomatic breast clinic referral: a decision analysis study.

PubMed

Quinlan, Aisling; O'Brien, Kirsty K; Galvin, Rose; Hardy, Colin; McDonnell, Ronan; Joyce, Doireann; McDowell, Ronald D; Aherne, Emma; Keogh, Claire; O'Sullivan, Katriona; Fahey, Tom

2018-05-31

Decision analysis study that incorporates patient preferences and probability estimates to investigate the impact of women's preferences for referral or an alternative strategy of watchful waiting if faced with symptoms that could be due to breast cancer. Community-based study. Asymptomatic women aged 30-60 years. Participants were presented with 11 health scenarios that represent the possible consequences of symptomatic breast problems. Participants were asked the risk of death that they were willing to take in order to avoid the health scenario using the standard gamble utility method. This process was repeated for all 11 health scenarios. Formal decision analysis for the preferred individual decision was then estimated for each participant. The preferred diagnostic strategy was either watchful waiting or referral to a breast clinic. Sensitivity analysis was used to examine how each varied according to changes in the probabilities of the health scenarios. A total of 35 participants completed the interviews, with a median age 41 years (IQR 35-47 years). The majority of the study sample was employed (n=32, 91.4%), with a third-level (university) education (n=32, 91.4%) and with knowledge of someone with breast cancer (n=30, 85.7%). When individual preferences were accounted for, 25 (71.4%) patients preferred watchful waiting to referral for triple assessment as their preferred initial diagnostic strategy. Sensitivity analysis shows that referral for triple assessment becomes the dominant strategy at the upper probability estimate (18%) of breast cancer in the community. Watchful waiting is an acceptable strategy for most women who present to their general practitioner (GP) with breast symptoms. These findings suggest that current referral guidelines should take more explicit account of women's preferences in relation to their GPs initial management strategy. © Article author(s) (or their employer(s) unless otherwise stated in the text of the article) 2018. All rights reserved. No commercial use is permitted unless otherwise expressly granted.

The value of superpower-submitted INDCs in cooperative and non-cooperative action scenarios: economic impact, dynamic risk, and temperature rise

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Augustin, C. M.

2015-12-01

As the 2015 Paris climate talks near, policy discussions are focused on "intended nationally determined contributions" (INDCs) submitted in advance of the discussions. As the major global emitters - specifically the United States and China - have already submitted their INDCs, we have a point of comparison for evaluating the relative potential impacts of the proposed targets. By applying integrated assessment models to robust, publicly available data sets,we aim to evaluate the interplay between climate change and economic development, comment on emissions reduction scenarios in cooperative and non-cooperative situations, and assess the dynamic risks of multiple regional emissions scenarios. We use both the RICE model and the C-ROADS model to examine alternative regional outcomes for emissions, climate change, and damages,under different reduction scenarios, including a scenario where geo-engineering plays a prominent role. These simulators allow us to vary emissions, population, and economic levels in China and the United States specifically to comment on the international climate risk impact of actors working jointly - or not - toward a global climate goal. In a complementary piece of analysis we seek to understand the value judgments, trade-offs, and regional policies that would lead to favorable climate finance flows. To reach an international sample of industry decision-makers, we propose a novel application of a standard discrete-choice survey methodology. A conjoint analysis requires a participant to chose between combinations of attributes and identify trade-offs while allowing the researcher to determine the relative importance of each individual attribute by mathematically assessing the impact each attribute could have on total item utility. As climate policy negotiations will consist of allocation of scarce resources and rejection of certain attributes, a conjoint analysis is an ideal tool for evaluating policy outcomes. This research program seeks to provide a commentary useful to policy makers on the most desirable outcomes of the negotiations and other international cooperation.

Barriers to accessing urethroplasty

PubMed Central

Consolo, Michael J.; Syed, Kirin K.; Robison, Christopher; McFadden, Jacob; Shalowitz, David I.; Brown, Gordon A.; Sussman, David O.; Figler, Bradley D.

2016-01-01

Urethroplasty is an effective treatment for men with anterior urethral strictures, but is utilized less frequently than ineffective treatments such as internal urethrotomy. We sought to identify provider-level barriers to urethroplasty. An anonymous online survey was emailed to all Mid-Atlantic American Urological Association members. Six scenarios in which urethroplasty was the most appropriate treatment were presented. Primary outcome was recommendation for urethroplasty in ≥ three clinical scenarios. Other factors measured include practice zip code, urethroplasty training, and proximity to a urethroplasty surgeon. Multivariate logistic regression identified factors associated with increased likelihood of urethroplasty recommendation. Of 670 members emailed, 109 (16%) completed the survey. Final analysis included 88 respondents. Mean years in practice was 17.2. Most respondents received formal training in urethroplasty: 43 (49%) in residency, 5 (6%) in fellowship, and 10 (11%) in both; 48 respondents (55%) had a urethroplasty surgeon in their practice, whereas 18 (20%) had a urethroplasty surgeon within 45 minutes of his or her primary practice location. The only covariate that was associated with an increased likelihood of recommending urethroplasty in ≥ three scenarios was formal urethroplasty training. Most members (68%) reported no barriers to referring patients for urethroplasty; the most common barriers cited were long distance to urethroplasty surgeon (n 5 13, 15%) and concern about complications (n 5 8, 9%). Urethroplasty continues to be underutilized in men with anterior urethral strictures, potentially due to lack of knowledge dissemination and access to a urethroplasty surgeon. Appropriate urethroplasty utilization may increase with greater exposure to urethroplasty in training. PMID:28127260

Barriers to accessing urethroplasty.

PubMed

Consolo, Michael J; Syed, Kirin K; Robison, Christopher; McFadden, Jacob; Shalowitz, David I; Brown, Gordon A; Sussman, David O; Figler, Bradley D

2016-01-01

Urethroplasty is an effective treatment for men with anterior urethral strictures, but is utilized less frequently than ineffective treatments such as internal urethrotomy. We sought to identify provider-level barriers to urethroplasty. An anonymous online survey was emailed to all Mid-Atlantic American Urological Association members. Six scenarios in which urethroplasty was the most appropriate treatment were presented. Primary outcome was recommendation for urethroplasty in ≥ three clinical scenarios. Other factors measured include practice zip code, urethroplasty training, and proximity to a urethroplasty surgeon. Multivariate logistic regression identified factors associated with increased likelihood of urethroplasty recommendation. Of 670 members emailed, 109 (16%) completed the survey. Final analysis included 88 respondents. Mean years in practice was 17.2. Most respondents received formal training in urethroplasty: 43 (49%) in residency, 5 (6%) in fellowship, and 10 (11%) in both; 48 respondents (55%) had a urethroplasty surgeon in their practice, whereas 18 (20%) had a urethroplasty surgeon within 45 minutes of his or her primary practice location. The only covariate that was associated with an increased likelihood of recommending urethroplasty in ≥ three scenarios was formal urethroplasty training. Most members (68%) reported no barriers to referring patients for urethroplasty; the most common barriers cited were long distance to urethroplasty surgeon (n 5 13, 15%) and concern about complications (n 5 8, 9%). Urethroplasty continues to be underutilized in men with anterior urethral strictures, potentially due to lack of knowledge dissemination and access to a urethroplasty surgeon. Appropriate urethroplasty utilization may increase with greater exposure to urethroplasty in training.

Helping Water Utilities Grapple with Climate Change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yates, D.; Gracely, B.; Miller, K.

2008-12-01

The Water Research Foundation (WRF), serving the drinking water industry and the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) are collaborating on an effort to develop and implement locally-relevant, structured processes to help water utilities consider the impacts and adaptation options that climate variability and change might have on their water systems. Adopting a case-study approach, the structured process include 1) a problem definition phase, focused on identifying goals, information needs, utility vulnerabilities and possible adaptation options in the face of climate and hydrologic uncertainty; 2) developing and/or modifying system-specific Integrated Water Resource Management (IWRM) models and conducting sensitivity analysis to identify critical variables; 3) developing probabilistic climate change scenarios focused on exploring uncertainties identified as important in the sensitivity analysis in step 2; and 4) implementing the structured process and examining approaches decision making under uncertainty. Collaborators include seven drinking water utilities and two state agencies: 1) The Inland Empire Utility Agency, CA; 2) The El Dorado Irrigation District, Placerville CA; 2) Portland Water Bureau, Portland OR; 3) Colorado Springs Utilities, Colo Spgs, CO; 4) Cincinnati Water, Cincinnati, OH; 5) Massachusetts Water Resources Authority (MWRA), Boston, MA; 6) Durham Water, Durham, NC; and 7) Palm Beach County Water (PBCW), Palm Beach, FL. The California Department of Water Resources and the Colorado Water Conservation Board were the state agencies that we have collaborated with.

Widespread, Very Heavy Precipitation Events in Contemporary and Scenario Summer Climates from NARCCAP Simulations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kawazoe, S.; Gutowski, W. J., Jr.

2015-12-01

We analyze the ability of regional climate models (RCMs) to simulate very heavy daily precipitation and supporting processes for both contemporary and future-scenario simulations during summer (JJA). RCM output comes from North American Regional Climate Change Assessment Program (NARCCAP) simulations, which are all run at a spatial resolution of 50 km. Analysis focuses on the upper Mississippi basin for summer, between 1982-1998 for the contemporary climate, and 2052-2068 during the scenario climate. We also compare simulated precipitation and supporting processes with those obtained from observed precipitation and reanalysis atmospheric states. Precipitation observations are from the University of Washington (UW) and the Climate Prediction Center (CPC) gridded dataset. Utilizing two observational datasets helps determine if any uncertainties arise from differences in precipitation gridding schemes. Reanalysis fields come from the North American Regional Reanalysis. The NARCCAP models generally reproduce well the precipitation-vs.-intensity spectrum seen in observations, while producing overly strong precipitation at high intensity thresholds. In the future-scenario climate, there is a decrease in frequency for light to moderate precipitation intensities, while an increase in frequency is seen for the higher intensity events. Further analysis focuses on precipitation events exceeding the 99.5 percentile that occur simultaneously at several points in the region, yielding so-called "widespread events". For widespread events, we analyze local and large scale environmental parameters, such as 2-m temperature and specific humidity, 500-hPa geopotential heights, Convective Available Potential Energy (CAPE), vertically integrated moisture flux convergence, among others, to compare atmospheric states and processes leading to such events in the models and observations. The results suggest that an analysis of atmospheric states supporting very heavy precipitation events is a more fruitful path for understanding and detecting changes than simply looking at precipitation itself.

Wealth distribution across communities of adaptive financial agents

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

DeLellis, Pietro; Garofalo, Franco; Lo Iudice, Francesco; Napoletano, Elena

2015-08-01

This paper studies the trading volumes and wealth distribution of a novel agent-based model of an artificial financial market. In this model, heterogeneous agents, behaving according to the Von Neumann and Morgenstern utility theory, may mutually interact. A Tobin-like tax (TT) on successful investments and a flat tax are compared to assess the effects on the agents’ wealth distribution. We carry out extensive numerical simulations in two alternative scenarios: (i) a reference scenario, where the agents keep their utility function fixed, and (ii) a focal scenario, where the agents are adaptive and self-organize in communities, emulating their neighbours by updating their own utility function. Specifically, the interactions among the agents are modelled through a directed scale-free network to account for the presence of community leaders, and the herding-like effect is tested against the reference scenario. We observe that our model is capable of replicating the benefits and drawbacks of the two taxation systems and that the interactions among the agents strongly affect the wealth distribution across the communities. Remarkably, the communities benefit from the presence of leaders with successful trading strategies, and are more likely to increase their average wealth. Moreover, this emulation mechanism mitigates the decrease in trading volumes, which is a typical drawback of TTs.

Health economic comparison of SLIT allergen and SCIT allergoid immunotherapy in patients with seasonal grass-allergic rhinoconjunctivitis in Germany.

PubMed

Verheggen, Bram G; Westerhout, Kirsten Y; Schreder, Carl H; Augustin, Matthias

2015-01-01

Allergoids are chemically modified allergen extracts administered to reduce allergenicity and to maintain immunogenicity. Oralair® (the 5-grass tablet) is a sublingual native grass allergen tablet for pre- and co-seasonal treatment. Based on a literature review, meta-analysis, and cost-effectiveness analysis the relative effects and costs of the 5-grass tablet versus a mix of subcutaneous allergoid compounds for grass pollen allergic rhinoconjunctivitis were assessed. A Markov model with a time horizon of nine years was used to assess the costs and effects of three-year immunotherapy treatment. Relative efficacy expressed as standardized mean differences was estimated using an indirect comparison on symptom scores extracted from available clinical trials. The Rhinitis Symptom Utility Index (RSUI) was applied as a proxy to estimate utility values for symptom scores. Drug acquisition and other medical costs were derived from published sources as well as estimates for resource use, immunotherapy persistence, and occurrence of asthma. The analysis was executed from the German payer's perspective, which includes payments of the Statutory Health Insurance (SHI) and additional payments by insurants. Comprehensive deterministic and probabilistic sensitivity analyses and different scenarios were performed to test the uncertainty concerning the incremental model outcomes. The applied model predicted a cost-utility ratio of the 5-grass tablet versus a market mix of injectable allergoid products of € 12,593 per QALY in the base case analysis. Predicted incremental costs and QALYs were € 458 (95% confidence interval, CI: € 220; € 739) and 0.036 (95% CI: 0.002; 0.078), respectively. Compared to the allergoid mix the probability of the 5-grass tablet being the most cost-effective treatment option was predicted to be 76% at a willingness-to-pay threshold of € 20,000. The results were most sensitive to changes in efficacy estimates, duration of the pollen season, and immunotherapy persistence rates. This analysis suggests the sublingual native 5-grass tablet to be cost-effective relative to a mix of subcutaneous allergoid compounds. The robustness of these statements has been confirmed in extensive sensitivity and scenario analyses.

Cost-utility analysis of deferiprone for the treatment of β-thalassaemia patients with chronic iron overload: a UK perspective.

PubMed

Bentley, Anthony; Gillard, Samantha; Spino, Michael; Connelly, John; Tricta, Fernando

2013-09-01

Patients with β-thalassaemia major experience chronic iron overload due to regular blood transfusions. Chronic iron overload can be treated using iron-chelating therapies such as desferrioxamine (DFO), deferiprone (DFP) and deferasirox (DFX) monotherapy, or DFO-DFP combination therapy. This study evaluated the relative cost effectiveness of these regimens over a 5-year timeframe from a UK National Health Service (NHS) perspective, including personal and social services. A Markov model was constructed to evaluate the cost effectiveness of the treatment regimens over 5 years. Based on published randomized controlled trial evidence, it was assumed that all four treatment regimens had a comparable effect on serum ferritin concentration (SFC) and liver iron concentration (LIC), and that DFP was more effective for reducing cardiac morbidity and mortality. Published utility scores for route of administration were used, with subcutaneously administered DFO assumed to incur a greater quality of life (QoL) burden than the oral chelators DFP and DFX. Healthcare resource use, drug costs (2010/2011 costs), and utilities associated with adverse events were also considered, with the effect of varying all parameters assessed in sensitivity analysis. Incremental costs and quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs) were calculated for each treatment, with cost effectiveness expressed as incremental cost per QALY. Assumptions that DFP conferred no cardiac morbidity, mortality, or morbidity and mortality benefit were also explored in scenario analysis. DFP was the dominant strategy in all scenarios modelled, providing greater QALY gains at a lower cost. Sensitivity analysis showed that DFP dominated all other treatments unless the QoL burden associated with the route of administration was greater for DFP than for DFO, which is unlikely to be the case. DFP had >99 % likelihood of being cost effective against all comparators at a willingness-to-pay threshold of £20,000 per QALY. In this analysis, DFP appeared to be the most cost-effective treatment available for managing chronic iron overload in β-thalassaemia patients. Use of DFP in these patients could therefore result in substantial cost savings.

40 CFR 68.28 - Alternative release scenario analysis.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-07-01

... 40 Protection of Environment 15 2011-07-01 2011-07-01 false Alternative release scenario analysis... scenario analysis. (a) The number of scenarios. The owner or operator shall identify and analyze at least... release scenario under § 68.25; and (ii) That will reach an endpoint offsite, unless no such scenario...

Web Based Tool for Mission Operations Scenarios

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Boyles, Carole A.; Bindschadler, Duane L.

2008-01-01

A conventional practice for spaceflight projects is to document scenarios in a monolithic Operations Concept document. Such documents can be hundreds of pages long and may require laborious updates. Software development practice utilizes scenarios in the form of smaller, individual use cases, which are often structured and managed using UML. We have developed a process and a web-based scenario tool that utilizes a similar philosophy of smaller, more compact scenarios (but avoids the formality of UML). The need for a scenario process and tool became apparent during the authors' work on a large astrophysics mission. It was noted that every phase of the Mission (e.g., formulation, design, verification and validation, and operations) looked back to scenarios to assess completeness of requirements and design. It was also noted that terminology needed to be clarified and structured to assure communication across all levels of the project. Attempts to manage, communicate, and evolve scenarios at all levels of a project using conventional tools (e.g., Excel) and methods (Scenario Working Group meetings) were not effective given limitations on budget and staffing. The objective of this paper is to document the scenario process and tool created to offer projects a low-cost capability to create, communicate, manage, and evolve scenarios throughout project development. The process and tool have the further benefit of allowing the association of requirements with particular scenarios, establishing and viewing relationships between higher- and lower-level scenarios, and the ability to place all scenarios in a shared context. The resulting structured set of scenarios is widely visible (using a web browser), easily updated, and can be searched according to various criteria including the level (e.g., Project, System, and Team) and Mission Phase. Scenarios are maintained in a web-accessible environment that provides a structured set of scenario fields and allows for maximum visibility across the project. One key aspect is that the tool was built for a scenario process that accounts for stakeholder input, review, comment, and concurrence. By creating well-designed opportunities for stakeholder input and concurrence and by making the scenario content easily accessible to all project personnel, we maximize the opportunities for stakeholders to both understand and agree on the concepts for how their mission is to be carried out.

Operational Benefits of Meeting California's Energy Storage Targets

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Eichman, Josh; Denholm, Paul; Jorgenson, Jennie

In October 2013, the California Public Utilities Commission (CPUC) finalized procurement targets and other requirements to its jurisdictional utilities for a minimum of 1,325 MW of 'viable and cost-effective' energy storage systems by 2020. The goal of this study is to explore several aspects of grid operations in California and the Western Interconnection resulting from meeting the CPUC storage targets. We perform this analysis using a set of databases and grid simulation tools developed and implemented by the CPUC, the California Independent System Operator (CAISO), and the California Energy Commission (CEC) for the CPUC's Long-term Procurement Plan (LTPP). The 2014more » version of this database contains information about generators, storage, transmission, and electrical demand, for California in the year 2024 for both 33% and 40% renewable energy portfolios. We examine the value of various services provided by energy storage in these scenarios. Sensitivities were performed relating to the services energy storage can provide, the capacity and duration of storage devices, export limitations, and negative price floor variations. Results show that a storage portfolio, as outlined by the CPUC, can reduce curtailment and system-wide production costs for 33% and 40% renewable scenarios. A storage device that can participate in energy and ancillary service markets provides the grid with the greatest benefit; the mandated storage requirement of 1,325 MW was estimated to reduce the total cost of production by about 78 million per year in the 33% scenario and 144 million per year in the 40% scenario. Much of this value is derived from the avoided start and stop costs of thermal generators and provision of ancillary services. A device on the 2024 California grid and participating in only ancillary service markets can provide the system with over 90% of the value as the energy and ancillary service device. The analysis points to the challenge of new storage providing regulation reserve, as the added storage could provide about 75% of the regulation up requirement for all of California, which would likely greatly reduce regulation prices and potential revenue. The addition of storage in California decreases renewable curtailment, particularly in the 40% RPS case. Following previous analysis, storage has a mixed impact on emissions, generally reducing emissions, but also creating additional incentives for increased emissions from out-of-state coal generations. Overall, storage shows significant system cost savings, but analysis also points to additional challenges associated with full valuation of energy storage, including capturing the operational benefits calculated here, but also recovering additional benefits associated avoided generation, transmission, and distribution capacity, and avoided losses.« less

Indonesian CPO availability analysis to support food and energy security: a system dynamic approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rahman, T.; Arkeman, Y.; Setyaningsih, D.; Saparita, R.

2017-05-01

The development of biofuels could be a solution to overcome the energy problem. One of biofuel that has the potential to be developed, namely palm oil biodiesel that is also the raw material for food. As a provider of CPO raw materials, the production of palm biodiesel could trigger competitions, from biofuels demand growth and utilization of agricultural resources. Thus, it needs to be analyzed to determine the adequency of CPO supply to fulfill the need of food and policy recomendation which sets the development of palm oil biodiesel can be synergies with food need especially for the supply of raw material CPO. To obtain the optimal policy in the synergy between the raw material of CPO for food and energy is a need to establish some policy scenarios that allow to be applied and then chosen the best policy alternative of all scenarios. The purpose of this research were to : 1) analysis the availability of CPO to meet the needs of food and energy, 2) provide policy recommendation with regard biodiesel development of food security. The model made used system dynamic method. Several scenarios that used in the model are: 1) existing condition, 2) The scenario increase biodiesel production capacity and increase land productivity, 3) reduction scenario CPO export by 30%, 4) scenario use othe raw material for biodiesel by 20%. The simulation results showed the availability of CPO raw materials would answer all needs of both food and biodiesel when there was an increase in productivity, diversification of raw materials, and also a reduction in palm oil exports. It was needed an integrated policy from upstream to downstream along with the consistency of implementation. Policy suggestions that could be considered were increased productivity through agricultural intensification, enforcement disincentive policies of CPO to exports, and development of non-CPO biodiesel raw materials and development of renewable energy.

Analysis of the net energy use impacts of PURPA (Public Utility Regulatory Policy Act) electricity generation under alternative assumptions regarding the technology mix of PURPA generators and displaced utility generators: Final report

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Not Available

The goals of this study were to explore the magnitude of potential fuel savings (or increased fuel consumption) under different possible combinations of Qualifying Facilities generation and utility displacement, and to identify those combinations which might result in a net increase in fuel consumption. In exploring the impact of cogeneration net heat rate on net savings (or increase) in fuel consumption, the study also addressed the extent to which cogenerator efficiency affects the overall fuel use impact of Public Utility Regulatory Policies Act (PURPA) implementation. This research thus seeks to identify possible scenarios in which PURPA implementation may not resultmore » in the conversation of fossil fuels, and to define possible situations in which the FERC's efficiency standard may lead to energy-inefficient Qualifying Facility development. 9 refs., 6 figs., 6 tabs.« less

Mapping clinical outcomes expectations to treatment decisions: an application to vestibular schwannoma management.

PubMed

Cheung, Steven W; Aranda, Derick; Driscoll, Colin L W; Parsa, Andrew T

2010-02-01

Complex medical decision making obligates tradeoff assessments among treatment outcomes expectations, but an accessible tool to perform the necessary analysis is conspicuously absent. We aimed to demonstrate methodology and feasibility of adapting conjoint analysis for mapping clinical outcomes expectations to treatment decisions in vestibular schwannoma (VS) management. Prospective. Tertiary medical center and US-based otologists/neurotologists. Treatment preference profiles among VS stakeholders-61 younger and 74 older prospective patients, 61 observation patients, and 60 surgeons-were assessed for the synthetic VS case scenario of a 10-mm tumor in association with useful hearing and normal facial function. Treatment attribute utility. Conjoint analysis attribute levels were set in accordance to the results of a meta-analysis. Forty-five case series were disaggregated to formulate microsurgery facial nerve and hearing preservation outcomes expectations models. Attribute utilities were computed and mapped to the realistic treatment choices of translabyrinthine craniotomy, middle fossa craniotomy, and gamma knife radiosurgery. Among the treatment attributes of likelihoods of causing deafness, temporary facial weakness for 2 months, and incurable cancer within 20 years, and recovery time, permanent deafness was less important to tumor surgeons, and temporary facial weakness was more important to tumor surgeons and observation patients (Wilcoxon rank-sum, p < 0.001). Inverse mapping of preference profiles to realistic treatment choices showed all study cohorts were inclined to choose gamma knife radiosurgery. Mapping clinical outcomes expectations to treatment decisions for a synthetic clinical scenario revealed inhomogeneous drivers of choice selection among study cohorts. Medical decision engines that analyze personal preferences of outcomes expectations for VS and many other diseases may be developed to promote shared decision making among health care stakeholders and transparency in the informed consent process.

Power Budget Analysis for High Altitude Airships

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Choi, Sang H.; Elliott, James R.; King, Glen C.

2006-01-01

The High Altitude Airship (HAA) has various potential applications and mission scenarios that require onboard energy harvesting and power distribution systems. The energy source considered for the HAA s power budget is solar photon energy that allows the use of either photovoltaic (PV) cells or advanced thermoelectric (ATE) converters. Both PV cells and an ATE system utilizing high performance thermoelectric materials were briefly compared to identify the advantages of ATE for HAA applications in this study. The ATE can generate a higher quantity of harvested energy than PV cells by utilizing the cascaded efficiency of a three-staged ATE in a tandem mode configuration. Assuming that each stage of ATE material has the figure of merit of 5, the cascaded efficiency of a three-staged ATE system approaches the overall conversion efficiency greater than 60%. Based on this estimated efficiency, the configuration of a HAA and the power utility modules are defined.

Analysis of sheltering and evacuation strategies for a Chicago nuclear detonation scenario.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Yoshimura, Ann S.; Brandt, Larry D.

2011-09-01

Development of an effective strategy for shelter and evacuation is among the most important planning tasks in preparation for response to a low yield, nuclear detonation in an urban area. Extensive studies have been performed and guidance published that highlight the key principles for saving lives following such an event. However, region-specific data are important in the planning process as well. This study examines some of the unique regional factors that impact planning for a 10 kt detonation in Chicago. The work utilizes a single scenario to examine regional impacts as well as the shelter-evacuate decision alternatives at selected exemplarymore » points. For many Chicago neighborhoods, the excellent assessed shelter quality available make shelter-in-place or selective transit to a nearby shelter a compelling post-detonation strategy.« less

Gravitino LSP and leptogenesis after the first LHC results

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Heisig, Jan, E-mail: heisig@physik.rwth-aachen.de

2014-04-01

Supersymmetric scenarios where the lightest superparticle (LSP) is the gravitino are an attractive alternative to the widely studied case of a neutralino LSP. A strong motivation for a gravitino LSP arises from the possibility of achieving higher reheating temperatures and thus potentially allow for thermal leptogenesis. The predictions for the primordial abundances of light elements in the presence of a late decaying next-to-LSP (NSLP) as well as the currently measured dark matter abundance allow us to probe the cosmological viability of such a scenario. Here we consider a gravitino-stau scenario. Utilizing a pMSSM scan we work out the implications ofmore » the 7 and 8 TeV LHC results as well as other experimental and theoretical constraints on the highest reheating temperatures that are cosmologically allowed. Our analysis shows that points with T{sub R}∼>10{sup 9} GeV survive only in a very particular corner of the SUSY parameter space. Those spectra feature a distinct signature at colliders that could be looked at in the upcoming LHC run.« less

A framework for considering climate change in transportation and land use scenario planning : lessons learned from an interagency pilot project on Cape Cod.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2011-07-01

The Interagency Transportation, Land Use, and Climate Change Pilot Project utilized a scenario planning process to develop a multi-agency transportation- and land use-focused development strategy for Cape Cod, Massachusetts, with the intention of ach...

Research on the food security condition and food supply capacity of Egypt.

PubMed

Deng, Jian; Xiang, Youzhen; Hao, Wenhui; Feng, Yongzhong; Yang, Gaihe; Ren, Guangxin; Han, Xinhui

2014-01-01

Food security is chronically guaranteed in Egypt because of the food subsidy policy of the country. However, the increasing Egyptian population is straining the food supply. To study changes in Egyptian food security and future food supply capacity, we analysed the historical grain production, yield per unit, grain-cultivated area, and per capita grain possession of Egypt. The GM (1,1) model of the grey system was used to predict the future population. Thereafter, the result was combined with scenario analysis to forecast the grain possession and population carrying capacity of Egypt under different scenarios. Results show that the increasing population and limitations in cultivated land will strain Egyptian food security. Only in high cultivated areas and high grain yield scenarios before 2020, or in high cultivated areas and mid grain yield scenarios before 2015, can food supply be basically satisfied (assurance rate ≥ 80%) under a standard of 400 kg per capita. Population carrying capacity in 2030 is between 51.45 and 89.35 million. Thus, we propose the use of advanced technologies in agriculture and the adjustment of plant structure and cropping systems to improve land utilization efficiency. Furthermore, urbanization and other uses of cultivated land should be strictly controlled to ensure the planting of grains.

Algorithm to solve a chance-constrained network capacity design problem with stochastic demands and finite support

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Schumacher, Kathryn M.; Chen, Richard Li-Yang; Cohn, Amy E. M.

2016-04-15

Here, we consider the problem of determining the capacity to assign to each arc in a given network, subject to uncertainty in the supply and/or demand of each node. This design problem underlies many real-world applications, such as the design of power transmission and telecommunications networks. We first consider the case where a set of supply/demand scenarios are provided, and we must determine the minimum-cost set of arc capacities such that a feasible flow exists for each scenario. We briefly review existing theoretical approaches to solving this problem and explore implementation strategies to reduce run times. With this as amore » foundation, our primary focus is on a chance-constrained version of the problem in which α% of the scenarios must be feasible under the chosen capacity, where α is a user-defined parameter and the specific scenarios to be satisfied are not predetermined. We describe an algorithm which utilizes a separation routine for identifying violated cut-sets which can solve the problem to optimality, and we present computational results. We also present a novel greedy algorithm, our primary contribution, which can be used to solve for a high quality heuristic solution. We present computational analysis to evaluate the performance of our proposed approaches.« less

Optimization of Groundwater Abstraction in the Beijing Plain using a Fuzzy Pattern Recognition Approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Guo, H.; Li, W.; Wang, L.; Cheng, G.; Zhu, J.; Wang, Y.; Chen, Y.

2016-12-01

Groundwater supply accounts for two-thirds of the water supply of the Beijing municipality, and groundwater resources play a fundamental role in assuring the security and sustainability of the regional economy in Beijing. In this report, ten groundwater abstraction scenarios were designed based on the water demand and the capacity of water supply in the Beijing plain, and the impacts of these scenarios on the groundwater storage and level were illustrated with a transient 3D groundwater model constructed with MODFLOW. In addition, a set of evaluation criteria was developed taking into account of a number of factors such as the amount of groundwater exploitation, the evaporation of unconfined groundwater, river outflow, regional average groundwater depth, drawdowns in depression cones and the ratio of storage to the total recharge. Based on this set of criteria, the ten proposed groundwater abstraction scenarios were compared using a multi-criteria fuzzy pattern recognition model, which is suitable for solving large-scale, transient groundwater management problems and also proven to be a useful scientific analysis tool to identify the optimal groundwater resource utilization scenario. The evaluation results show that the groundwater resources can be rationally and optimally used when multiple measures such as control of groundwater abstraction and increase of recharge are jointly implemented.

Asteroid exploration and utilization: The Hawking explorer

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Carlson, Alan; Date, Medha; Duarte, Manny; Erian, Neil; Gafka, George; Kappler, Peter; Patano, Scott; Perez, Martin; Ponce, Edgar; Radovich, Brian

1991-01-01

The Earth is nearing depletion of its natural resources at a time when human beings are rapidly expanding the frontiers of space. The resources which may exist on asteroids could have enormous potential for aiding and enhancing human space exploration as well as life on Earth. With the possibly limitless opportunities that exist, it is clear that asteroids are the next step for human existence in space. This report comprises the efforts of NEW WORLDS, Inc. to develop a comprehensive design for an asteroid exploration/sample return mission. This mission is a precursor to proof-of-concept missions that will investigate the validity of mining and materials processing on an asteroid. Project STONER (Systematic Transfer of Near Earth Resources) is based on two utilization scenarios: (1) moving an asteroid to an advantageous location for use by Earth; and (2) mining an asteroids and transporting raw materials back to Earth. The asteroid explorer/sample return mission is designed in the context of both scenarios and is the first phase of a long range plane for humans to utilize asteroid resources. The report concentrates specifically on the selection of the most promising asteroids for exploration and the development of an exploration scenario. Future utilization as well as subsystem requirements of an asteroid sample return probe are also addressed.

Asteroid exploration and utilization: The Hawking explorer

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Carlson, Alan; Date, Medha; Duarte, Manny; Erian, Neil; Gafka, George; Kappler, Peter; Patano, Scott; Perez, Martin; Ponce, Edgar; Radovich, Brian

1991-12-01

The Earth is nearing depletion of its natural resources at a time when human beings are rapidly expanding the frontiers of space. The resources which may exist on asteroids could have enormous potential for aiding and enhancing human space exploration as well as life on Earth. With the possibly limitless opportunities that exist, it is clear that asteroids are the next step for human existence in space. This report comprises the efforts of NEW WORLDS, Inc. to develop a comprehensive design for an asteroid exploration/sample return mission. This mission is a precursor to proof-of-concept missions that will investigate the validity of mining and materials processing on an asteroid. Project STONER (Systematic Transfer of Near Earth Resources) is based on two utilization scenarios: (1) moving an asteroid to an advantageous location for use by Earth; and (2) mining an asteroids and transporting raw materials back to Earth. The asteroid explorer/sample return mission is designed in the context of both scenarios and is the first phase of a long range plane for humans to utilize asteroid resources. The report concentrates specifically on the selection of the most promising asteroids for exploration and the development of an exploration scenario. Future utilization as well as subsystem requirements of an asteroid sample return probe are also addressed.

Using "The Burns Suite" as a Novel High Fidelity Simulation Tool for Interprofessional and Teamwork Training.

PubMed

Sadideen, Hazim; Wilson, David; Moiemen, Naiem; Kneebone, Roger

2016-01-01

Educational theory highlights the importance of contextualized simulation for effective learning. The authors recently published the concept of "The Burns Suite" (TBS) as a novel tool to advance the delivery of burns education for residents/clinicians. Effectively, TBS represents a low-cost, high-fidelity, portable, immersive simulation environment. Recently, simulation-based team training (SBTT) has been advocated as a means to improve interprofessional practice. The authors aimed to explore the role of TBS in SBTT. A realistic pediatric burn resuscitation scenario was designed based on "advanced trauma and life support" and "emergency management of severe burns" principles, refined utilizing expert opinion through cognitive task analysis. The focus of this analysis was on nontechnical and interpersonal skills of clinicians and nurses within the scenario, mirroring what happens in real life. Five-point Likert-type questionnaires were developed for face and content validity. Cronbach's alpha was calculated for scale reliability. Semistructured interviews captured responses for qualitative thematic analysis allowing for data triangulation. Twenty-two participants completed TBS resuscitation scenario. Mean face and content validity ratings were high (4.4 and 4.7 respectively; range 4-5). The internal consistency of questions was high. Qualitative data analysis revealed two new themes. Participants reported that the experience felt particularly authentic because the simulation had high psychological and social fidelity, and there was a demand for such a facility to be made available to improve nontechnical skills and interprofessional relations. TBS provides a realistic, novel tool for SBTT, addressing both nontechnical and interprofessional team skills. Recreating clinical challenge is crucial to optimize SBTT. With a better understanding of the theories underpinning simulation and interprofessional education, future simulation scenarios can be designed to provide unique educational experiences whereby team members will learn with and from other specialties and professions in a safe, controlled environment.

A solution to the water resources crisis in wetlands: development of a scenario-based modeling approach with uncertain features.

PubMed

Lv, Ying; Huang, Guohe; Sun, Wei

2013-01-01

A scenario-based interval two-phase fuzzy programming (SITF) method was developed for water resources planning in a wetland ecosystem. The SITF approach incorporates two-phase fuzzy programming, interval mathematical programming, and scenario analysis within a general framework. It can tackle fuzzy and interval uncertainties in terms of cost coefficients, resources availabilities, water demands, hydrological conditions and other parameters within a multi-source supply and multi-sector consumption context. The SITF method has the advantage in effectively improving the membership degrees of the system objective and all fuzzy constraints, so that both higher satisfactory grade of the objective and more efficient utilization of system resources can be guaranteed. Under the systematic consideration of water demands by the ecosystem, the SITF method was successfully applied to Baiyangdian Lake, which is the largest wetland in North China. Multi-source supplies (including the inter-basin water sources of Yuecheng Reservoir and Yellow River), and multiple water users (including agricultural, industrial and domestic sectors) were taken into account. The results indicated that, the SITF approach would generate useful solutions to identify long-term water allocation and transfer schemes under multiple economic, environmental, ecological, and system-security targets. It can address a comparative analysis for the system satisfactory degrees of decisions under various policy scenarios. Moreover, it is of significance to quantify the relationship between hydrological change and human activities, such that a scheme on ecologically sustainable water supply to Baiyangdian Lake can be achieved. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Potential for Jobs and Economic Development from Offshore Wind in California

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Tegen, Suzanne

In California's future scenarios, energy demand increases with population growth and productivity. Decision-makers will have to make choices about which energy resources to utilize, and offshore wind offers one option for carbon-free electricity with the potential for increased local jobs. This presentation discusses results from an NREL report, Floating Offshore Wind in California: Gross Potential for Jobs and Economic Impacts from Two Future Scenarios. Presenter Suzanne Tegen describes the Jobs and Economic Development Impact (JEDI) model and its results for two offshore wind scenarios in California. She discusses different assumptions and how they affect the scenarios.

Potential Impacts of Plug-in Hybrid Electric Vehicles on Regional Power Generation

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Hadley, Stanton W; Tsvetkova, Alexandra A

2008-01-01

Plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEVs) are being developed around the world, with much work aiming to optimize engine and battery for efficient operation, both during discharge and when grid electricity is available for recharging. However, the general expectation has been that the grid will not be greatly affected by the use of PHEVs because the recharging will occur during off-peak hours, or the number of vehicles will grow slowly enough so that capacity planning will respond adequately. This expectation does not consider that drivers will control the timing of recharging, and their inclination will be to plug in when convenient,more » rather than when utilities would prefer. It is important to understand the ramifications of adding load from PHEVs onto the grid. Depending on when and where the vehicles are plugged in, they could cause local or regional constraints on the grid. They could require the addition of new electric capacity and increase the utilization of existing capacity. Usage patterns of local distribution grids will change, and some lines or substations may become overloaded sooner than expected. Furthermore, the type of generation used to meet the demand for recharging PHEVs will depend on the region of the country and the timing of recharging. This paper analyzes the potential impacts of PHEVs on electricity demand, supply, generation structure, prices, and associated emission levels in 2020 and 2030 in 13 regions specified by the North American Electric Reliability Corporation (NERC) and the U.S. Department of Energy's (DOE's) Energy Information Administration (EIA), and on which the data and analysis in EIA's Annual Energy Outlook 2007 are based (Figure ES-1). The estimates of power plant supplies and regional hourly electricity demand come from publicly available sources from EIA and the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission. Electricity requirements for PHEVs are based on analysis from the Electric Power Research Institute, with an optimistic projection of 25% market penetration by 2020, involving a mixture of sedans and sport utility vehicles. The calculations were done using the Oak Ridge Competitive Electricity Dispatch (ORCED) model, a model developed over the past 12 years to evaluate a wide variety of critical electricity sector issues. Seven scenarios were run for each region for 2020 and 2030, for a total of 182 scenarios. In addition to a base scenario of no PHEVs, the authors modeled scenarios assuming that vehicles were either plugged in starting at 5:00 p.m. (evening) or at 10:00 p.m.(night) and left until fully charged. Three charging rates were examined: 120V/15A (1.4 kW), 120V/20A (2 kW), and 220V/30A (6 kW). Most regions will need to build additional capacity or utilize demand response to meet the added demand from PHEVs in the evening charging scenarios, especially by 2030 when PHEVs have a larger share of the installed vehicle base and make a larger demand on the system. The added demands of evening charging, especially at high power levels, can impact the overall demand peaks and reduce the reserve margins for a region's system. Night recharging has little potential to influence peak loads, but will still influence the amount and type of generation.« less

Water Availability in Indus River at the Upper Indus Basin under Different Climate Change Scenarios

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Khan, Firdos; Pilz, Jürgen

2015-04-01

The last decade of the 20th century and the first decade of the 21st century showed that climate change or global warming is happening and the latter one is considered as the warmest decade over Pakistan ever in history where temperature reached 53 0C on May 26, 2010. The changing climate has impact on various areas including agriculture, water, health, among others. There are two main forces which have central role in changing climate: one is natural variability and the other one is human evoked changes, increasing the density of green house gases. The elements in the bunch of Energy-Food-Water are interlinked with one another and among them water plays a crucial role for the existence of the other two parts. This nexus is the central environmental issue around the globe generally, and is of particular importance in the developing countries. The study evaluated the importance and the availability of water in Indus River under different emission scenarios. Four emission scenarios are included, that is, the A2, B2, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5. One way coupling of regional climate models (RCMs) and Hydrological model have been implemented in this study. The PRECIS (Providing Regional Climate for Impact Studies) and CCAM (Conformal-Cubic Atmospheric Model) climate models and UBCWM (University of British Columbia Watershed Model) hydrological model are used for this purpose. It is observed that Indus River contributes 80 % of the hydro-power generation and contributes 44 % to available water annually in Pakistan. It is further investigated whether sufficient water will be available in the Indus River under climate change scenarios. Toward this goal, Tarbela Reservoir is used as a measurement tool using the parameters of the reservoir like maximum operating storage, dead level storage, discharge capacity of tunnels and spillways. The results of this study are extremely important for the economy of Pakistan in various key areas like agriculture, energy, industries and ecosystem. The analyses show that there will be much more water available in future under the considered emission scenarios but in some months there will be scarcity of water. However, by proper management and optimum utilization of the available water, the scarcity of water can be minimized considerably. Finally, a meta-analysis has been performed to present a combined picture of all scenarios considered in this study. One way to avoid water scarcity is to upgrade and install new reservoirs and water storage capacities to reserve the extra water during high river flow in Indus River, which will then be utilized during low river flow. __________________________________________________________________________________ KEY WORDS: Agriculture, Climate Change, Hydro-power, Indus River, Tarbela Reservoir, Upper Indus Basin, Meta-analysis, Hydrological model.

Developing a stochastic conflict resolution model for urban runoff quality management: Application of info-gap and bargaining theories

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ghodsi, Seyed Hamed; Kerachian, Reza; Estalaki, Siamak Malakpour; Nikoo, Mohammad Reza; Zahmatkesh, Zahra

2016-02-01

In this paper, two deterministic and stochastic multilateral, multi-issue, non-cooperative bargaining methodologies are proposed for urban runoff quality management. In the proposed methodologies, a calibrated Storm Water Management Model (SWMM) is used to simulate stormwater runoff quantity and quality for different urban stormwater runoff management scenarios, which have been defined considering several Low Impact Development (LID) techniques. In the deterministic methodology, the best management scenario, representing location and area of LID controls, is identified using the bargaining model. In the stochastic methodology, uncertainties of some key parameters of SWMM are analyzed using the info-gap theory. For each water quality management scenario, robustness and opportuneness criteria are determined based on utility functions of different stakeholders. Then, to find the best solution, the bargaining model is performed considering a combination of robustness and opportuneness criteria for each scenario based on utility function of each stakeholder. The results of applying the proposed methodology in the Velenjak urban watershed located in the northeastern part of Tehran, the capital city of Iran, illustrate its practical utility for conflict resolution in urban water quantity and quality management. It is shown that the solution obtained using the deterministic model cannot outperform the result of the stochastic model considering the robustness and opportuneness criteria. Therefore, it can be concluded that the stochastic model, which incorporates the main uncertainties, could provide more reliable results.

Feedbacks between managed irrigation and water availability: Diagnosing temporal and spatial patterns using an integrated hydrologic model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Condon, Laura E.; Maxwell, Reed M.

2014-03-01

Groundwater-fed irrigation has been shown to deplete groundwater storage, decrease surface water runoff, and increase evapotranspiration. Here we simulate soil moisture-dependent groundwater-fed irrigation with an integrated hydrologic model. This allows for direct consideration of feedbacks between irrigation demand and groundwater depth. Special attention is paid to system dynamics in order to characterized spatial variability in irrigation demand and response to increased irrigation stress. A total of 80 years of simulation are completed for the Little Washita Basin in Southwestern Oklahoma, USA spanning a range of agricultural development scenarios and management practices. Results show regionally aggregated irrigation impacts consistent with other studies. However, here a spectral analysis reveals that groundwater-fed irrigation also amplifies the annual streamflow cycle while dampening longer-term cyclical behavior with increased irrigation during climatological dry periods. Feedbacks between the managed and natural system are clearly observed with respect to both irrigation demand and utilization when water table depths are within a critical range. Although the model domain is heterogeneous with respect to both surface and subsurface parameters, relationships between irrigation demand, water table depth, and irrigation utilization are consistent across space and between scenarios. Still, significant local heterogeneities are observed both with respect to transient behavior and response to stress. Spatial analysis of transient behavior shows that farms with groundwater depths within a critical depth range are most sensitive to management changes. Differences in behavior highlight the importance of groundwater's role in system dynamics in addition to water availability.

Comparative evaluation of spectroscopic models using different multivariate statistical tools in a multicancer scenario

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ghanate, A. D.; Kothiwale, S.; Singh, S. P.; Bertrand, Dominique; Krishna, C. Murali

2011-02-01

Cancer is now recognized as one of the major causes of morbidity and mortality. Histopathological diagnosis, the gold standard, is shown to be subjective, time consuming, prone to interobserver disagreement, and often fails to predict prognosis. Optical spectroscopic methods are being contemplated as adjuncts or alternatives to conventional cancer diagnostics. The most important aspect of these approaches is their objectivity, and multivariate statistical tools play a major role in realizing it. However, rigorous evaluation of the robustness of spectral models is a prerequisite. The utility of Raman spectroscopy in the diagnosis of cancers has been well established. Until now, the specificity and applicability of spectral models have been evaluated for specific cancer types. In this study, we have evaluated the utility of spectroscopic models representing normal and malignant tissues of the breast, cervix, colon, larynx, and oral cavity in a broader perspective, using different multivariate tests. The limit test, which was used in our earlier study, gave high sensitivity but suffered from poor specificity. The performance of other methods such as factorial discriminant analysis and partial least square discriminant analysis are at par with more complex nonlinear methods such as decision trees, but they provide very little information about the classification model. This comparative study thus demonstrates not just the efficacy of Raman spectroscopic models but also the applicability and limitations of different multivariate tools for discrimination under complex conditions such as the multicancer scenario.

Utility of an airframe referenced spatial auditory display for general aviation operations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Naqvi, M. Hassan; Wigdahl, Alan J.; Ranaudo, Richard J.

2009-05-01

The University of Tennessee Space Institute (UTSI) completed flight testing with an airframe-referenced localized audio cueing display. The purpose was to assess its affect on pilot performance, workload, and situational awareness in two scenarios simulating single-pilot general aviation operations under instrument meteorological conditions. Each scenario consisted of 12 test procedures conducted under simulated instrument meteorological conditions, half with the cue off, and half with the cue on. Simulated aircraft malfunctions were strategically inserted at critical times during each test procedure. Ten pilots participated in the study; half flew a moderate workload scenario consisting of point to point navigation and holding pattern operations and half flew a high workload scenario consisting of non precision approaches and missed approach procedures. Flight data consisted of aircraft and navigation state parameters, NASA Task Load Index (TLX) assessments, and post-flight questionnaires. With localized cues there was slightly better pilot technical performance, a reduction in workload, and a perceived improvement in situational awareness. Results indicate that an airframe-referenced auditory display has utility and pilot acceptance in general aviation operations.

Life cycle assessment of introducing an anaerobic digester in a municipal wastewater treatment plant in Spain.

PubMed

Blanco, David; Collado, Sergio; Laca, Adriana; Díaz, Mario

2016-01-01

Anaerobic digestion (AD) is being established as a standard technology to recover some of the energy contained in the sludge in wastewater treatment plants (WWTPs) as biogas, allowing an economy in electricity and heating and a decrease in climate gas emission. The purpose of this study was to quantify the contributions to the total environmental impact of the plant using life cycle assessment methodology. In this work, data from real operation during 2012 of a municipal WWTP were utilized as the basis to determine the impact of including AD in the process. The climate change human health was the most important impact category when AD was included in the treatment (Scenario 1), especially due to fossil carbon dioxide emissions. Without AD (Scenario 2), increased emissions of greenhouse gases, mostly derived from the use of electricity, provoked a rise in the climate change categories. Biogas utilization was able to provide 47% of the energy required in the WWTP in Scenario 1. Results obtained make Scenario 1 the better environmental choice by far, mainly due to the use of the digested sludge as fertilizer.

Hybrid cooperative spectrum sharing for cognitive radio networks: A contract-based approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, Songwei; Mu, Xiaomin; Wang, Ning; Zhang, Dalong; Han, Gangtao

2018-06-01

In order to improve the spectral efficiency, a contract-based hybrid cooperative spectrum sharing approach is proposed in this paper, in which multiple primary users (PUs) and multiple secondary users (SUs) share the primary channels in a hybrid manner. Specifically, the SUs switch their transmission mode between underlay and overlay based on the second-order statistics of the primary links. The average transmission rates of PUs and SUs are analyzed for the two transmission modes, and an optimization problem is formulated to maximize the utility of PUs under the constraint that the utility of SUs is nonnegative, which is further solved by a contract-based approach in global statistical channel statistical information (S-CSI) scenarios and local S-CSI scenarios, individually. Numerical results show that the average transmission rate of the PUs is significantly improved by using the proposed method in both of the two scenarios, and in the meantime, the SUs can achieve a good average rate, especially while the SUs have the same number of the PUs in the local S-CSI scenarios.

PUHCA's Repeal Appeal: Analogies to Banking and Telecom

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Higgins, Mark D.

There are many possible scenarios for the future of electric utility consolidation, but experiences in banking and telecommunications deregulation and consolidation suggest one as the most likely: larger players will continue to consolidate, smaller players will be acquired or focus on niche markets, and new, non-utility investors will enter utility markets, with varying degrees of success.

When is carotid angioplasty and stenting the cost-effective alternative for revascularization of symptomatic carotid stenosis? A Canadian health system perspective.

PubMed

Almekhlafi, M A; Hill, M D; Wiebe, S; Goyal, M; Yavin, D; Wong, J H; Clement, F M

2014-02-01

Carotid revascularization procedures can be complicated by stroke. Additional disability adds to the already high costs of the procedure. To weigh the cost and benefit, we estimated the cost-utility of carotid angioplasty and stenting compared with carotid endarterectomy among patients with symptomatic carotid stenosis, with special emphasis on scenario analyses that would yield carotid angioplasty and stenting as the cost-effective alternative relative to carotid endarterectomy. A cost-utility analysis from the perspective of the health system payer was performed by using a Markov analytic model. Clinical estimates were based on a meta-analysis. The procedural costs were derived from a microcosting data base. The costs for hospitalization and rehabilitation of patients with stroke were based on a Canadian multicenter study. Utilities were based on a randomized controlled trial. In the base case analysis, carotid angioplasty and stenting were more expensive (incremental cost of $6107) and had a lower utility (-0.12 quality-adjusted life years) than carotid endarterectomy. The results are sensitive to changes in the risk of clinical events and the relative risk of death and stroke. Carotid angioplasty and stenting were more economically attractive among high-risk surgical patients. For carotid angioplasty and stenting to become the preferred option, their costs would need to fall from more than $7300 to $4350 or less and the risks of the periprocedural and annual minor strokes would have to be equivalent to that of carotid endarterectomy. In the base case analysis, carotid angioplasty and stenting were associated with higher costs and lower utility compared with carotid endarterectomy for patients with symptomatic carotid stenosis. Carotid angioplasty and stenting were cost-effective for patients with high surgical risk.

Impact of hydrogen refueling configurations and market parameters on the refueling cost of hydrogen

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Reddi, Krishna; Elgowainy, Amgad; Rustagi, Neha

The cost of hydrogen in early fuel cell electric vehicle (FCEV) markets is dominated by the cost of refueling stations, mainly due to the high cost of refueling equipment, small station capacities, lack of economies of scale, and low utilization of the installed refueling capacity. Using the hydrogen delivery scenario analysis model (HDSAM), this study estimates the impacts of these factors on the refueling cost for different refueling technologies and configurations, and quantifies the potential reduction in future hydrogen refueling cost compared to today’s cost in the United States. The current hydrogen refueling station levelized cost, for a 200 kg/daymore » dispensing capacity, is in the range of 6–8 dollars/kg H 2 when supplied with gaseous hydrogen, and 8–9 dollars/kg H 2 for stations supplied with liquid hydrogen. After adding the cost of hydrogen production, packaging, and transportation to the station’s levelized cost, the current cost of hydrogen at dispensers for FCEVs in California is in the range of 13–15 dollars/kg H 2. The refueling station capacity utilization strongly influences the hydrogen refueling cost. The underutilization of station capacity in early FCEV markets, such as in California, results in a levelized station cost that is approximately 40% higher than it would be in a scenario where the station had been fully utilized since it began operating. In future mature hydrogen FCEV markets, with a large demand for hydrogen, the refueling station’s levelized cost can be reduced to 2 dollars/kg H 2 as a result of improved capacity utilization and reduced equipment cost via learning and economies of scale.« less

Implementation of case studies in undergraduate didactic nursing courses: a qualitative study.

PubMed

Dutra, Danette K

2013-07-04

The implementation of unfolding scenario-based case studies in the didactic classroom is associated with learner-centered education. The utilization of learner-centered pedagogies, such as case studies, removes the focus from the instructor and instead places it on the student. Learner-centered pedagogies are believed to improve students' levels of cognition. The purpose of this study was to examine how nurse educators are implementing the pedagogies of case studies in their undergraduate didactic courses. The goal was to examine, document, report, and, ultimately, implement the strategies. Purposeful sampling was utilized in this qualitative, multisite-designed study. For each of the four participants, three separate site visits were completed. Observations and post-observational interviews took place at each site visit. Transcribed data from interviews, observations, and course documents were imported into the computer program Nvivo8. Repetitive comparative analysis was utilized to complete the data coding process. The guiding research question of this study sought to investigate the implementation strategies of case studies in didactic nursing courses. The implementation of case studies by the participants reflected two primary patterns: Formal Implementation (FI) and Informal Implementation (II) of case studies. The FI of case studies was further divided into two subcategories: Formal Implementation of case studies used Inside the Classroom setting (FIIC) and Formal Implementation of cases studies used Outside of the Classroom (FIOC). Results of this investigation have led to an increased understanding of implementation strategies of unfolding scenario-based case studies in undergraduate nursing didactic courses. Data collected were rich in the description of specific methodologies for utilization of case studies and may serve as a resource for faculty in development of creative strategies to enhance the didactic classroom experience.

Implementation of case studies in undergraduate didactic nursing courses: a qualitative study

PubMed Central

2013-01-01

Background The implementation of unfolding scenario-based case studies in the didactic classroom is associated with learner-centered education. The utilization of learner-centered pedagogies, such as case studies, removes the focus from the instructor and instead places it on the student. Learner-centered pedagogies are believed to improve students’ levels of cognition. The purpose of this study was to examine how nurse educators are implementing the pedagogies of case studies in their undergraduate didactic courses. The goal was to examine, document, report, and, ultimately, implement the strategies. Methods Purposeful sampling was utilized in this qualitative, multisite-designed study. For each of the four participants, three separate site visits were completed. Observations and post-observational interviews took place at each site visit. Transcribed data from interviews, observations, and course documents were imported into the computer program Nvivo8. Repetitive comparative analysis was utilized to complete the data coding process. Results The guiding research question of this study sought to investigate the implementation strategies of case studies in didactic nursing courses. The implementation of case studies by the participants reflected two primary patterns: Formal Implementation (FI) and Informal Implementation (II) of case studies. The FI of case studies was further divided into two subcategories: Formal Implementation of case studies used Inside the Classroom setting (FIIC) and Formal Implementation of cases studies used Outside of the Classroom (FIOC). Conclusion Results of this investigation have led to an increased understanding of implementation strategies of unfolding scenario-based case studies in undergraduate nursing didactic courses. Data collected were rich in the description of specific methodologies for utilization of case studies and may serve as a resource for faculty in development of creative strategies to enhance the didactic classroom experience. PMID:23826925

Impact of hydrogen refueling configurations and market parameters on the refueling cost of hydrogen

DOE PAGES

Reddi, Krishna; Elgowainy, Amgad; Rustagi, Neha; ...

2017-06-30

The cost of hydrogen in early fuel cell electric vehicle (FCEV) markets is dominated by the cost of refueling stations, mainly due to the high cost of refueling equipment, small station capacities, lack of economies of scale, and low utilization of the installed refueling capacity. Using the hydrogen delivery scenario analysis model (HDSAM), this study estimates the impacts of these factors on the refueling cost for different refueling technologies and configurations, and quantifies the potential reduction in future hydrogen refueling cost compared to today’s cost in the United States. The current hydrogen refueling station levelized cost, for a 200 kg/daymore » dispensing capacity, is in the range of 6–8 dollars/kg H 2 when supplied with gaseous hydrogen, and 8–9 dollars/kg H 2 for stations supplied with liquid hydrogen. After adding the cost of hydrogen production, packaging, and transportation to the station’s levelized cost, the current cost of hydrogen at dispensers for FCEVs in California is in the range of 13–15 dollars/kg H 2. The refueling station capacity utilization strongly influences the hydrogen refueling cost. The underutilization of station capacity in early FCEV markets, such as in California, results in a levelized station cost that is approximately 40% higher than it would be in a scenario where the station had been fully utilized since it began operating. In future mature hydrogen FCEV markets, with a large demand for hydrogen, the refueling station’s levelized cost can be reduced to 2 dollars/kg H 2 as a result of improved capacity utilization and reduced equipment cost via learning and economies of scale.« less

The Attentional Demand of Automobile Driving Revisited: Occlusion Distance as a Function of Task-Relevant Event Density in Realistic Driving Scenarios.

PubMed

Kujala, Tuomo; Mäkelä, Jakke; Kotilainen, Ilkka; Tokkonen, Timo

2016-02-01

We studied the utility of occlusion distance as a function of task-relevant event density in realistic traffic scenarios with self-controlled speed. The visual occlusion technique is an established method for assessing visual demands of driving. However, occlusion time is not a highly informative measure of environmental task-relevant event density in self-paced driving scenarios because it partials out the effects of changes in driving speed. Self-determined occlusion times and distances of 97 drivers with varying backgrounds were analyzed in driving scenarios simulating real Finnish suburban and highway traffic environments with self-determined vehicle speed. Occlusion distances varied systematically with the expected environmental demands of the manipulated driving scenarios whereas the distributions of occlusion times remained more static across the scenarios. Systematic individual differences in the preferred occlusion distances were observed. More experienced drivers achieved better lane-keeping accuracy than inexperienced drivers with similar occlusion distances; however, driving experience was unexpectedly not a major factor for the preferred occlusion distances. Occlusion distance seems to be an informative measure for assessing task-relevant event density in realistic traffic scenarios with self-controlled speed. Occlusion time measures the visual demand of driving as the task-relevant event rate in time intervals, whereas occlusion distance measures the experienced task-relevant event density in distance intervals. The findings can be utilized in context-aware distraction mitigation systems, human-automated vehicle interaction, road speed prediction and design, as well as in the testing of visual in-vehicle tasks for inappropriate in-vehicle glancing behaviors in any dynamic traffic scenario for which appropriate individual occlusion distances can be defined. © 2015, Human Factors and Ergonomics Society.

a Workflow for UAV's Integration Into a Geodesign Platform

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Anca, P.; Calugaru, A.; Alixandroae, I.; Nazarie, R.

2016-06-01

This paper presents a workflow for the development of various Geodesign scenarios. The subject is important in the context of identifying patterns and designing solutions for a Smart City with optimized public transportation, efficient buildings, efficient utilities, recreational facilities a.s.o.. The workflow describes the procedures starting with acquiring data in the field, data processing, orthophoto generation, DTM generation, integration into a GIS platform and analyzing for a better support for Geodesign. Esri's City Engine is used mostly for 3D modeling capabilities that enable the user to obtain 3D realistic models. The workflow uses as inputs information extracted from images acquired using UAVs technologies, namely eBee, existing 2D GIS geodatabases, and a set of CGA rules. The method that we used further, is called procedural modeling, and uses rules in order to extrude buildings, the street network, parcel zoning and side details, based on the initial attributes from the geodatabase. The resulted products are various scenarios for redesigning, for analyzing new exploitation sites. Finally, these scenarios can be published as interactive web scenes for internal, groups or pubic consultation. In this way, problems like the impact of new constructions being build, re-arranging green spaces or changing routes for public transportation, etc. are revealed through impact and visibility analysis or shadowing analysis and are brought to the citizen's attention. This leads to better decisions.

Economic consequences of aviation system disruptions: A reduced-form computable general equilibrium analysis

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Chen, Zhenhua; Rose, Adam Z.; Prager, Fynnwin

The state of the art approach to economic consequence analysis (ECA) is computable general equilibrium (CGE) modeling. However, such models contain thousands of equations and cannot readily be incorporated into computerized systems used by policy analysts to yield estimates of economic impacts of various types of transportation system failures due to natural hazards, human related attacks or technological accidents. This paper presents a reduced-form approach to simplify the analytical content of CGE models to make them more transparent and enhance their utilization potential. The reduced-form CGE analysis is conducted by first running simulations one hundred times, varying key parameters, suchmore » as magnitude of the initial shock, duration, location, remediation, and resilience, according to a Latin Hypercube sampling procedure. Statistical analysis is then applied to the “synthetic data” results in the form of both ordinary least squares and quantile regression. The analysis yields linear equations that are incorporated into a computerized system and utilized along with Monte Carlo simulation methods for propagating uncertainties in economic consequences. Although our demonstration and discussion focuses on aviation system disruptions caused by terrorist attacks, the approach can be applied to a broad range of threat scenarios.« less

Toxic release consequence analysis tool (TORCAT) for inherently safer design plant.

PubMed

Shariff, Azmi Mohd; Zaini, Dzulkarnain

2010-10-15

Many major accidents due to toxic release in the past have caused many fatalities such as the tragedy of MIC release in Bhopal, India (1984). One of the approaches is to use inherently safer design technique that utilizes inherent safety principle to eliminate or minimize accidents rather than to control the hazard. This technique is best implemented in preliminary design stage where the consequence of toxic release can be evaluated and necessary design improvements can be implemented to eliminate or minimize the accidents to as low as reasonably practicable (ALARP) without resorting to costly protective system. However, currently there is no commercial tool available that has such capability. This paper reports on the preliminary findings on the development of a prototype tool for consequence analysis and design improvement via inherent safety principle by utilizing an integrated process design simulator with toxic release consequence analysis model. The consequence analysis based on the worst-case scenarios during process flowsheeting stage were conducted as case studies. The preliminary finding shows that toxic release consequences analysis tool (TORCAT) has capability to eliminate or minimize the potential toxic release accidents by adopting the inherent safety principle early in preliminary design stage. 2010 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

A Scenario-Based Protocol Checker for Public-Key Authentication Scheme

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Saito, Takamichi

Security protocol provides communication security for the internet. One of the important features of it is authentication with key exchange. Its correctness is a requirement of the whole of the communication security. In this paper, we introduce three attack models realized as their attack scenarios, and provide an authentication-protocol checker for applying three attack-scenarios based on the models. We also utilize it to check two popular security protocols: Secure SHell (SSH) and Secure Socket Layer/Transport Layer Security (SSL/TLS).

Nationwide Analysis of U.S. Commercial Building Solar Photovoltaic (PV) Breakeven Conditions

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Davidson, Carolyn; Gagnon, Pieter; Denholm, Paul

2015-10-01

The commercial sector offers strong potential for solar photovoltaics (PV) owing to abundant available roof space suitable for PV and the opportunity to offset the sector's substantial retail electricity purchases. This report evaluated the breakeven price of PV for 15 different building types and various financing options by calculating electricity savings based on detailed rate structures for most U.S. utility territories (representing approximately two thirds of U.S. commercial customers). We find that at current capital costs, an estimated 1/3 of U.S. commercial customers break even in the cash scenario and approximately 2/3 break even in the loan scenario. Variation inmore » retail rates is a stronger driver of breakeven prices than is variation in building load or solar generation profiles. At the building level, variation in the average breakeven price is largely driven by the ability for a PV system to reduce demand charges.« less

Evaluation of Containment Boxes as a Fire Mitigation Method in Elevated Oxygen Conditions

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Juarez, Alfredo; Harper, Susana; Perez, Horacio

2016-01-01

NASA performed testing to evaluate the efficacy of fire containment boxes without forced ventilation. Configurational flammability testing was performed on a simulation avionics box replicating critical design features and filled with materials possessing representative flammability characteristics. This paper discusses the box's ability, under simulated end-use conditions, to inhibit the propagation of combustion to surrounding materials. Analysis was also performed to evaluate the potential for the fire containment box to serve as an overheat/ignition source to temperature sensitive equipment (such as items with lithium-ion batteries). Unrealistically severe combustion scenarios were used as a means to better understand the fire containment mechanism. These scenarios were achieved by utilizing materials/fuels not typically used in space vehicles due to flammability concerns. Oxygen depletion, during combustion within the fire containment boxes, drove self-extinguishment and proved an effective method of fire containment

Analysis of sheltering and evacuation strategies for a national capital region nuclear detonation scenario.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Yoshimura, Ann S.; Brandt, Larry D.

2011-12-01

Development of an effective strategy for shelter and evacuation is among the most important planning tasks in preparation for response to a low yield, nuclear detonation in an urban area. Extensive studies have been performed and guidance published that highlight the key principles for saving lives following such an event. However, region-specific data are important in the planning process as well. This study examines some of the unique regional factors that impact planning for a 10 kT detonation in the National Capital Region. The work utilizes a single scenario to examine regional impacts as well as the shelter-evacuate decision alternativesmore » at one exemplary point. For most Washington, DC neighborhoods, the excellent assessed shelter quality available make shelter-in-place or selective transit to a nearby shelter a compelling post-detonation strategy.« less

I spy with my little eye: Analysis of airline pilots' gaze patterns in a manual instrument flight scenario.

PubMed

Haslbeck, Andreas; Zhang, Bo

2017-09-01

The aim of this study was to analyze pilots' visual scanning in a manual approach and landing scenario. Manual flying skills suffer from increasing use of automation. In addition, predominantly long-haul pilots with only a few opportunities to practice these skills experience this decline. Airline pilots representing different levels of practice (short-haul vs. long-haul) had to perform a manual raw data precision approach while their visual scanning was recorded by an eye-tracking device. The analysis of gaze patterns, which are based on predominant saccades, revealed one main group of saccades among long-haul pilots. In contrast, short-haul pilots showed more balanced scanning using two different groups of saccades. Short-haul pilots generally demonstrated better manual flight performance and within this group, one type of scan pattern was found to facilitate the manual landing task more. Long-haul pilots tend to utilize visual scanning behaviors that are inappropriate for the manual ILS landing task. This lack of skills needs to be addressed by providing specific training and more practice. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Nuclear powered Mars cargo transport mission utilizing advanced ion propulsion

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Galecki, Diane L.; Patterson, Michael J.

1987-01-01

Nuclear-powered ion propulsion technology was combined with detailed trajectory analysis to determine propulsion system and trajectory options for an unmanned cargo mission to Mars in support of manned Mars missions. A total of 96 mission scenarios were identified by combining two power levels, two propellants, four values of specific impulse per propellant, three starting altitudes, and two starting velocities. Sixty of these scenarios were selected for a detailed trajectory analysis; a complete propulsion system study was then conducted for 20 of these trajectories. Trip times ranged from 344 days for a xenon propulsion system operating at 300 kW total power and starting from lunar orbit with escape velocity, to 770 days for an argon propulsion system operating at 300 kW total power and starting from nuclear start orbit with circular velocity. Trip times for the 3 MW cases studied ranged from 356 to 413 days. Payload masses ranged from 5700 to 12,300 kg for the 300 kW power level, and from 72,200 to 81,500 kg for the 3 MW power level.

Access to Mars from Earth-Moon Libration Point Orbits:. [Manifold and Direct Options

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kakoi, Masaki; Howell, Kathleen C.; Folta, David

2014-01-01

This investigation is focused specifically on transfers from Earth-Moon L(sub 1)/L(sub 2) libration point orbits to Mars. Initially, the analysis is based in the circular restricted three-body problem to utilize the framework of the invariant manifolds. Various departure scenarios are compared, including arcs that leverage manifolds associated with the Sun-Earth L(sub 2) orbits as well as non-manifold trajectories. For the manifold options, ballistic transfers from Earth-Moon L(sub 2) libration point orbits to Sun-Earth L(sub 1)/L(sub 2) halo orbits are first computed. This autonomous procedure applies to both departure and arrival between the Earth-Moon and Sun-Earth systems. Departure times in the lunar cycle, amplitudes and types of libration point orbits, manifold selection, and the orientation/location of the surface of section all contribute to produce a variety of options. As the destination planet, the ephemeris position for Mars is employed throughout the analysis. The complete transfer is transitioned to the ephemeris model after the initial design phase. Results for multiple departure/arrival scenarios are compared.

Top-attack modeling and automatic target detection using synthetic FLIR scenery

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Weber, Bruce A.; Penn, Joseph A.

2004-09-01

A series of experiments have been performed to verify the utility of algorithmic tools for the modeling and analysis of cold-target signatures in synthetic, top-attack, FLIR video sequences. The tools include: MuSES/CREATION for the creation of synthetic imagery with targets, an ARL target detection algorithm to detect imbedded synthetic targets in scenes, and an ARL scoring algorithm, using Receiver-Operating-Characteristic (ROC) curve analysis, to evaluate detector performance. Cold-target detection variability was examined as a function of target emissivity, surrounding clutter type, and target placement in non-obscuring clutter locations. Detector metrics were also individually scored so as to characterize the effect of signature/clutter variations. Results show that using these tools, a detailed, physically meaningful, target detection analysis is possible and that scenario specific target detectors may be developed by selective choice and/or weighting of detector metrics. However, developing these tools into a reliable predictive capability will require the extension of these results to the modeling and analysis of a large number of data sets configured for a wide range of target and clutter conditions. Finally, these tools should also be useful for the comparison of competitive detection algorithms by providing well defined, and controllable target detection scenarios, as well as for the training and testing of expert human observers.

Climate Change Effects of Forest Management and Substitution of Carbon-Intensive Materials and Fossil Fuels

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sathre, R.; Gustavsson, L.; Haus, S.; Lundblad, M.; Lundström, A.; Ortiz, C.; Truong, N.; Wikberg, P. E.

2016-12-01

Forests can play several roles in climate change mitigation strategies, for example as a reservoir for storing carbon and as a source of renewable materials and energy. To better understand the linkages and possible trade-offs between different forest management strategies, we conduct an integrated analysis where both sequestration of carbon in growing forests and the effects of substituting carbon intensive products within society are considered. We estimate the climate effects of directing forest management in Sweden towards increased carbon storage in forests, with more land set-aside for protection, or towards increased forest production for the substitution of carbon-intensive materials and fossil fuels, relative to a reference case of current forest management. We develop various scenarios of forest management and biomass use to estimate the carbon balances of the forest systems, including ecological and technological components, and their impacts on the climate in terms of cumulative radiative forcing over a 100-year period. For the reference case of current forest management, increasing the harvest of forest residues is found to give increased climate benefits. A scenario with increased set-aside area and the current level of forest residue harvest begins with climate benefits compared to the reference scenario, but the benefits cannot be sustained for 100 years because the rate of carbon storage in set-aside forests diminishes over time as the forests mature, but the demand for products and fuels remains. The most climatically beneficial scenario, expressed as reduced cumulative radiative forcing, in both the short and long terms is a strategy aimed at high forest production, high residue recovery rate, and high efficiency utilization of harvested biomass. Active forest management with high harvest level and efficient forest product utilization will provide more climate benefit, compared to reducing harvest and storing more carbon in the forest. Figure. Schematic diagram of complete modelled forest system including ecological and technological components, showing major flows of carbon.

Comparative study of stock trend prediction using time delay, recurrent and probabilistic neural networks.

PubMed

Saad, E W; Prokhorov, D V; Wunsch, D C

1998-01-01

Three networks are compared for low false alarm stock trend predictions. Short-term trends, particularly attractive for neural network analysis, can be used profitably in scenarios such as option trading, but only with significant risk. Therefore, we focus on limiting false alarms, which improves the risk/reward ratio by preventing losses. To predict stock trends, we exploit time delay, recurrent, and probabilistic neural networks (TDNN, RNN, and PNN, respectively), utilizing conjugate gradient and multistream extended Kalman filter training for TDNN and RNN. We also discuss different predictability analysis techniques and perform an analysis of predictability based on a history of daily closing price. Our results indicate that all the networks are feasible, the primary preference being one of convenience.

Budgetary Impact of Cabazitaxel Use After Docetaxel Treatment for Metastatic Castration-Resistant Prostate Cancer.

PubMed

Flannery, Kyle; Drea, Ed; Hudspeth, Louis; Corman, Shelby; Gao, Xin; Xue, Mei; Miao, Raymond

2017-04-01

With the approval of several new treatments for metastatic castration-resistant prostate cancer (mCRPC), budgetary impact is a concern for health plan decision makers. Budget impact models (BIMs) are becoming a requirement in many countries as part of formulary approval or reimbursement decisions. Cabazitaxel is a second-generation taxane developed to overcome resistance to docetaxel and is approved for the treatment of patients with mCRPC previously treated with a docetaxel-containing regimen. To estimate a 1-year projected budget impact of varying utilization rates of cabazitaxel as a second-line treatment for mCRPC following docetaxel, using a hypothetical U.S. private managed care plan with 1 million members. A BIM was developed to evaluate costs for currently available treatment options for patients with mCRPC previously treated with docetaxel. Treatments included in the model were cabazitaxel, abiraterone acetate, enzalutamide, and radium-223, with utilization rates derived from market research data. Medication costs were calculated according to published pricing benchmarks factored by dosing and duration of therapy as stated in the prescribing information for each agent. Published rates and costs of grade 3-4 adverse events were also factored into the model. In addition, the model reports budget impact under 2 scenarios. In the first base-case scenario, patient out-of-pocket costs were subtracted from the total cost of treatment. In the second scenario, all treatment costs were assumed to be paid by the plan. In a hypothetical 1 million-member health plan population, 100 patients were estimated to receive second-line treatment for mCRPC after treatment with docetaxel. Using current utilization rates for the 4 agents of interest, the base-case scenario estimated the cost of second-line treatment after docetaxel to be $6,331,704, or $0.528 per member per month (PMPM). In a scenario where cabazitaxel use increases from the base-rate case of 24% to a hypothetical rate of 33%, the PMPM cost would decrease to $0.524, reflecting a cost saving of $0.004 PMPM and equating to incremental savings of $49,546, or $497 per patient per year (PPPY). In the second scenario, when out-of-pocket costs were not considered, the cost of second-line treatment after docetaxel was estimated as $6,733,594, or $0.561 PMPM. With a hypothetical increase in cabazitaxel use (24%-33%), the PMPM cost would decrease to $0.554, reflecting savings of $0.007 PMPM and equating to incremental savings of $86,136, or $864 PPPY. The primary driver of cost savings with increased cabazitaxel use was lower acquisition cost. One-way sensitivity analyses revealed that the model results were robust over a wide range of input values (utilization, prevalence, and population parameters). In the presented BIM, an increase in cabazitaxel use is expected to result in modest cost savings to the health plan. Patient coinsurance savings may also be realized based on applicable Medicare Part B and Part D calculations. This BIM presents an objective, comprehensive, robust, and user-adaptable tool that health plans and medical decision makers may use to evaluate potential economic impact of formulary and reimbursement decisions. Research and analysis were funded by Sanofi US. The sponsor had the opportunity to review the final draft; however, the authors were responsible for all content and editorial decisions. Flannery, Drea, Hudspeth, and Miao are employees of Sanofi. Miao is an owner of stock in Sanofi. Corman, Gao, and Xue are employees of Pharmerit International and served as consultants to Sanofi during this study. All authors contributed to study design and data collection and analysis. The manuscript was written by Flannery, along with the other authors, and revised by all the authors.

Global Sensitivity Analysis for Identifying Important Parameters of Nitrogen Nitrification and Denitrification under Model and Scenario Uncertainties

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ye, M.; Chen, Z.; Shi, L.; Zhu, Y.; Yang, J.

2017-12-01

Nitrogen reactive transport modeling is subject to uncertainty in model parameters, structures, and scenarios. While global sensitivity analysis is a vital tool for identifying the parameters important to nitrogen reactive transport, conventional global sensitivity analysis only considers parametric uncertainty. This may result in inaccurate selection of important parameters, because parameter importance may vary under different models and modeling scenarios. By using a recently developed variance-based global sensitivity analysis method, this paper identifies important parameters with simultaneous consideration of parametric uncertainty, model uncertainty, and scenario uncertainty. In a numerical example of nitrogen reactive transport modeling, a combination of three scenarios of soil temperature and two scenarios of soil moisture leads to a total of six scenarios. Four alternative models are used to evaluate reduction functions used for calculating actual rates of nitrification and denitrification. The model uncertainty is tangled with scenario uncertainty, as the reduction functions depend on soil temperature and moisture content. The results of sensitivity analysis show that parameter importance varies substantially between different models and modeling scenarios, which may lead to inaccurate selection of important parameters if model and scenario uncertainties are not considered. This problem is avoided by using the new method of sensitivity analysis in the context of model averaging and scenario averaging. The new method of sensitivity analysis can be applied to other problems of contaminant transport modeling when model uncertainty and/or scenario uncertainty are present.

The Integrated Medical Model: A Probabilistic Simulation Model for Predicting In-Flight Medical Risks

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Keenan, Alexandra; Young, Millennia; Saile, Lynn; Boley, Lynn; Walton, Marlei; Kerstman, Eric; Shah, Ronak; Goodenow, Debra A.; Myers, Jerry G.

2015-01-01

The Integrated Medical Model (IMM) is a probabilistic model that uses simulation to predict mission medical risk. Given a specific mission and crew scenario, medical events are simulated using Monte Carlo methodology to provide estimates of resource utilization, probability of evacuation, probability of loss of crew, and the amount of mission time lost due to illness. Mission and crew scenarios are defined by mission length, extravehicular activity (EVA) schedule, and crew characteristics including: sex, coronary artery calcium score, contacts, dental crowns, history of abdominal surgery, and EVA eligibility. The Integrated Medical Evidence Database (iMED) houses the model inputs for one hundred medical conditions using in-flight, analog, and terrestrial medical data. Inputs include incidence, event durations, resource utilization, and crew functional impairment. Severity of conditions is addressed by defining statistical distributions on the dichotomized best and worst-case scenarios for each condition. The outcome distributions for conditions are bounded by the treatment extremes of the fully treated scenario in which all required resources are available and the untreated scenario in which no required resources are available. Upon occurrence of a simulated medical event, treatment availability is assessed, and outcomes are generated depending on the status of the affected crewmember at the time of onset, including any pre-existing functional impairments or ongoing treatment of concurrent conditions. The main IMM outcomes, including probability of evacuation and loss of crew life, time lost due to medical events, and resource utilization, are useful in informing mission planning decisions. To date, the IMM has been used to assess mission-specific risks with and without certain crewmember characteristics, to determine the impact of eliminating certain resources from the mission medical kit, and to design medical kits that maximally benefit crew health while meeting mass and volume constraints.

The Integrated Medical Model: A Probabilistic Simulation Model Predicting In-Flight Medical Risks

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Keenan, Alexandra; Young, Millennia; Saile, Lynn; Boley, Lynn; Walton, Marlei; Kerstman, Eric; Shah, Ronak; Goodenow, Debra A.; Myers, Jerry G., Jr.

2015-01-01

The Integrated Medical Model (IMM) is a probabilistic model that uses simulation to predict mission medical risk. Given a specific mission and crew scenario, medical events are simulated using Monte Carlo methodology to provide estimates of resource utilization, probability of evacuation, probability of loss of crew, and the amount of mission time lost due to illness. Mission and crew scenarios are defined by mission length, extravehicular activity (EVA) schedule, and crew characteristics including: sex, coronary artery calcium score, contacts, dental crowns, history of abdominal surgery, and EVA eligibility. The Integrated Medical Evidence Database (iMED) houses the model inputs for one hundred medical conditions using in-flight, analog, and terrestrial medical data. Inputs include incidence, event durations, resource utilization, and crew functional impairment. Severity of conditions is addressed by defining statistical distributions on the dichotomized best and worst-case scenarios for each condition. The outcome distributions for conditions are bounded by the treatment extremes of the fully treated scenario in which all required resources are available and the untreated scenario in which no required resources are available. Upon occurrence of a simulated medical event, treatment availability is assessed, and outcomes are generated depending on the status of the affected crewmember at the time of onset, including any pre-existing functional impairments or ongoing treatment of concurrent conditions. The main IMM outcomes, including probability of evacuation and loss of crew life, time lost due to medical events, and resource utilization, are useful in informing mission planning decisions. To date, the IMM has been used to assess mission-specific risks with and without certain crewmember characteristics, to determine the impact of eliminating certain resources from the mission medical kit, and to design medical kits that maximally benefit crew health while meeting mass and volume constraints.

If you try to stop smoking, should we pay for it? The cost-utility of reimbursing smoking cessation support in the Netherlands.

PubMed

Vemer, Pepijn; Rutten-van Mölken, Maureen P M H; Kaper, Janneke; Hoogenveen, Rudolf T; van Schayck, C P; Feenstra, Talitha L

2010-06-01

Smoking cessation can be encouraged by reimbursing the costs of smoking cessation support (SCS). The short-term efficiency of reimbursement has been evaluated previously. However, a thorough estimate of the long-term cost-utility is lacking. To evaluate long-term effects of reimbursement of SCS. Results from a randomized controlled trial were extrapolated to long-term outcomes in terms of health care costs and (quality adjusted) life years (QALY) gained, using the Chronic Disease Model. Our first scenario was no reimbursement. In a second scenario, the short-term cessation rates from the trial were extrapolated directly. Sensitivity analyses were based on the trial's confidence intervals. In the third scenario the additional use of SCS as found in the trial was combined with cessation rates from international meta-analyses. Intervention costs per QALY gained compared to the reference scenario were approximately euro1200 extrapolating the trial effects directly, and euro4200 when combining the trial's use of SCS with the cessation rates from the literature. Taking all health care effects into account, even costs in life years gained, resulted in an estimated incremental cost-utility of euro4500 and euro7400, respectively. In both scenarios costs per QALY remained below euro16 000 in sensitivity analyses using a life-time horizon. Extrapolating the higher use of SCS due to reimbursement led to more successful quitters and a gain in life years and QALYs. Accounting for overheads, administration costs and the costs of SCS, these health gains could be obtained at relatively low cost, even when including costs in life years gained. Hence, reimbursement of SCS seems to be cost-effective from a health care perspective.

Single-Frequency Ultrasound-Based Respiration Rate Estimation with Smartphones.

PubMed

Ge, Linfei; Zhang, Jin; Wei, Jing

2018-01-01

Respiration monitoring is helpful in disease prevention and diagnosis. Traditional respiration monitoring requires users to wear devices on their bodies, which is inconvenient for them. In this paper, we aim to design a noncontact respiration rate detection system utilizing off-the-shelf smartphones. We utilize the single-frequency ultrasound as the media to detect the respiration activity. By analyzing the ultrasound signals received by the built-in microphone sensor in a smartphone, our system can derive the respiration rate of the user. The advantage of our method is that the transmitted signal is easy to generate and the signal analysis is simple, which has lower power consumption and thus is suitable for long-term monitoring in daily life. The experimental result shows that our system can achieve accurate respiration rate estimation under various scenarios.

Preferences and Utilities for Health States after Treatment of Olfactory Groove Meningioma: Endoscopic versus Open.

PubMed

Yao, Christopher M; Kahane, Alyssa; Monteiro, Eric; Gentili, Fred; Zadeh, Gelareh; de Almeida, John R

2017-08-01

Objectives  The purpose of this study is to report health utility scores for patients with olfactory groove meningiomas (OGM) treated with either the standard transcranial approach, or the expanded endonasal endoscopic approach. Design  The time trade-off technique was used to derive health utility scores. Setting  Healthy individuals without skull base tumors were surveyed. Main Outcome Measures  Participants reviewed and rated scenarios describing treatment (endoscopic, open, stereotactic radiation, watchful waiting), remission, recurrence, and complications associated with the management of OGMs. Results  There were 51 participants. The endoscopic approach was associated with higher utility scores compared with an open craniotomy approach (0.88 vs. 0.74; p  < 0.001) and watchful waiting (0.88 vs.0.74; p  = 0.002). If recurrence occurred, revision endoscopic resection continued to have a higher utility score compared with revision open craniotomy (0.68; p  = 0.008). On multivariate analysis, older individuals were more likely to opt for watchful waiting ( p  = 0.001), whereas participants from higher income brackets were more likely to rate stereotactic radiosurgery with higher utility scores ( p  = 0.017). Conclusion  The endoscopic approach was associated with higher utility scores than craniotomy for primary and revision cases. The present utilities can be used for future cost-utility analyses.

Impact assessments of water allocation on water environment of river network: Method and application

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Qinggai; Wang, Yaping; Lu, Xuchuan; Jia, Peng; Zhang, Beibei; Li, Chen; Li, Sa; Li, Shibei

2018-02-01

Two types of water allocation scenarios were proposed for reasonably utilizing water resources and improving water quality in a two-river network in Tongzhou District. Water circulation and quality were selected as two important indexes to evaluate the two scenario. Meanwhile, one-dimensional water amount and quality model was set up on the basis of the MIKE11 model to compare the two scenarios in terms of improving water environment. The results showed that both scenarios changed the hydrodynamic conditions, and consequently the river flow reached 0.05 m/s or higher in the central part of river stream. In addition, we also found that the two plans have similar effects on water quality, with first scenario producing larger area of water class III and IV than the second scenario.

Blind Quantum Signature with Controlled Four-Particle Cluster States

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, Wei; Shi, Jinjing; Shi, Ronghua; Guo, Ying

2017-08-01

A novel blind quantum signature scheme based on cluster states is introduced. Cluster states are a type of multi-qubit entangled states and it is more immune to decoherence than other entangled states. The controlled four-particle cluster states are created by acting controlled-Z gate on particles of four-particle cluster states. The presented scheme utilizes the above entangled states and simplifies the measurement basis to generate and verify the signature. Security analysis demonstrates that the scheme is unconditional secure. It can be employed to E-commerce systems in quantum scenario.

Downscaling future climate scenarios to fine scales for hydrologic and ecological modeling and analysis

USGS Publications Warehouse

Flint, Lorraine E.; Flint, Alan L.

2012-01-01

The methodology, which includes a sequence of rigorous analyses and calculations, is intended to reduce the addition of uncertainty to the climate data as a result of the downscaling while providing the fine-scale climate information necessary for ecological analyses. It results in new but consistent data sets for the US at 4 km, the southwest US at 270 m, and California at 90 m and illustrates the utility of fine-scale downscaling to analyses of ecological processes influenced by topographic complexity.

Predicting the Burden of Revision Knee Arthroplasty: Simulation of a 20-Year Horizon.

PubMed

Guerrero-Ludueña, Richard E; Comas, Mercè; Espallargues, Mireia; Coll, Moisès; Pons, Miquel; Sabatés, Santiago; Allepuz, Alejandro; Castells, Xavier

2016-01-01

To estimate future utilization scenarios for knee arthroplasty (KA) revision in the Spanish National Health System in the short- and long-term and their impact on primary KA utilization. A discrete-event simulation model was built to represent KA utilization for 20 years (2012-2031) in the Spanish National Health System. Data on KA utilization from 1997 to 2011 were obtained from the minimum data set. Three scenarios of future utilization of primary KA (1, fixed number since 2011; 2, fixed age- and sex-adjusted rates since 2011; and 3, projection using a linear regression model) were combined with two prosthesis survival functions (W [worse survival], from a study including primary KA from 1995 to 2000; and B [better survival], from the Catalan Registry of Arthroplasty, including primary KA from 2005 to 2013). The simulation results were analyzed in the short-term (2015) and the long-term (2030). Variations in the number of revisions depended on both the primary utilization rate and the survival function applied, ranging from increases of 8.3% to 31.6% in the short- term and from 38.3% to 176.9% in the long-term, corresponding to scenarios 1-B and 3-W, respectively. The prediction of increases in overall surgeries ranged from 0.1% to 22.3% in the short-term and from 3.7% to 98.2% in the long-term. Projections of the burden of KA provide a quantitative basis for future policy decisions on the concentration of high-complexity procedures, the number of orthopedic surgeons required to perform these procedures, and the resources needed. Copyright © 2016 International Society for Pharmacoeconomics and Outcomes Research (ISPOR). Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Economics of carbon dioxide capture and utilization-a supply and demand perspective.

PubMed

Naims, Henriette

2016-11-01

Lately, the technical research on carbon dioxide capture and utilization (CCU) has achieved important breakthroughs. While single CO 2 -based innovations are entering the markets, the possible economic effects of a large-scale CO 2 utilization still remain unclear to policy makers and the public. Hence, this paper reviews the literature on CCU and provides insights on the motivations and potential of making use of recovered CO 2 emissions as a commodity in the industrial production of materials and fuels. By analyzing data on current global CO 2 supply from industrial sources, best practice benchmark capture costs and the demand potential of CO 2 utilization and storage scenarios with comparative statics, conclusions can be drawn on the role of different CO 2 sources. For near-term scenarios the demand for the commodity CO 2 can be covered from industrial processes, that emit CO 2 at a high purity and low benchmark capture cost of approximately 33 €/t. In the long-term, with synthetic fuel production and large-scale CO 2 utilization, CO 2 is likely to be available from a variety of processes at benchmark costs of approx. 65 €/t. Even if fossil-fired power generation is phased out, the CO 2 emissions of current industrial processes would suffice for ambitious CCU demand scenarios. At current economic conditions, the business case for CO 2 utilization is technology specific and depends on whether efficiency gains or substitution of volatile priced raw materials can be achieved. Overall, it is argued that CCU should be advanced complementary to mitigation technologies and can unfold its potential in creating local circular economy solutions.

Moon manned missions radiation safety analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tripathi, R. K.; Wilson, J. W.; de Anlelis, G.; Badavi, F. F.

An analysis is performed on the radiation environment found on the surface of the Moon, and applied to different possible lunar base mission scenarios. An optimization technique has been used to obtain mission scenarios minimizing the astronaut radiation exposure and at the same time controlling the effect of shielding, in terms of mass addition and material choice, as a mission cost driver. The optimization process has been realized through minimization of mass along all phases of a mission scenario, in terms of time frame (dates, transfer time length and trajectory, radiation environment), equipment (vehicles, in terms of shape, volume, onboard material choice, size and structure), location (if in space, on the surface, inside or outside a certain habitats), crew characteristics (number, gender, age, tasks) and performance required (spacecraft and habitat volumes), radiation exposure annual and career limit constraint (from NCRP 132), and implementation of the ALARA principle (shelter from the occurrence of Solar Particle Events). On the lunar surface the most important contribution to radiation exposure is given by background Galactic Cosmic Rays (GCR) particles, mostly protons, alpha particles, and some heavy ions, and by locally induced particles, mostly neutrons, created by the interaction between GCR and surface material and emerging from below the surface due to backscattering processes. In this environment manned habitats are to host future crews involved in the construction and/or in the utilization of moon based infrastructure. Three different kinds of lunar missions are considered in the analysis, Moon Base Construction Phase, during which astronauts are on the surface just to build an outpost for future resident crews, Moon Base Outpost Phase, during which astronaut crews are resident but continuing exploration and installation activities, and Moon Base Routine Phase, with long-term shifting resident crews. In each scenario various kinds of habitats, from very simple shelters to more complex bases, are considered in full detail (e.g., shape, thickness, materials, etc) with considerations of various shielding strategies. In this first analysis all the shape considered are cylindrical or composed of combination of cylinders. Moreover, a radiation safety analysis of more future possible habitats like lava tubes has been also performed.

Commissioning of a CERN Production and Analysis Facility Based on xrootd

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Campana, Simone; van der Ster, Daniel C.; Di Girolamo, Alessandro; Peters, Andreas J.; Duellmann, Dirk; Coelho Dos Santos, Miguel; Iven, Jan; Bell, Tim

2011-12-01

The CERN facility hosts the Tier-0 of the four LHC experiments, but as part of WLCG it also offers a platform for production activities and user analysis. The CERN CASTOR storage technology has been extensively tested and utilized for LHC data recording and exporting to external sites according to experiments computing model. On the other hand, to accommodate Grid data processing activities and, more importantly, chaotic user analysis, it was realized that additional functionality was needed including a different throttling mechanism for file access. This paper will describe the xroot-based CERN production and analysis facility for the ATLAS experiment and in particular the experiment use case and data access scenario, the xrootd redirector setup on top of the CASTOR storage system, the commissioning of the system and real life experience for data processing and data analysis.

Groundwater-abstraction induced land subsidence and groundwater regulation in the North China Plain

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Guo, H.; Wang, L.; Cheng, G.; Zhang, Z.

2015-11-01

Land subsidence can be induced when various factors such as geological, and hydrogeological conditions and intensive groundwater abstraction combine. The development and utilization of groundwater in the North China Plain (NCP) bring great benefits, and at the same time have led to a series of environmental and geological problems accompanying groundwater-level declines and land subsidence. Subsidence occurs commonly in the NCP and analyses show that multi-layer aquifer systems with deep confined aquifers and thick compressible clay layers are the key geological and hydrogeological conditions responsible for its development in this region. Groundwater overdraft results in aquifer-system compaction, resulting in subsidence. A calibrated, transient groundwater-flow numerical model of the Beijing plain portion of the NCP was developed using MODFLOW. According to available water supply and demand in Beijing plain, several groundwater regulation scenarios were designed. These different regulation scenarios were simulated with the groundwater model, and assessed using a multi-criteria fuzzy pattern recognition model. This approach is proven to be very useful for scientific analysis of sustainable development and utilization of groundwater resources. The evaluation results show that sustainable development of groundwater resources may be achieved in Beijing plain when various measures such as control of groundwater abstraction and increase of artificial recharge combine favourably.

Exacerbations of COPD: quantifying the patient's perspective using discrete choice modelling.

PubMed

Haughney, J; Partridge, M R; Vogelmeier, C; Larsson, T; Kessler, R; Ståhl, E; Brice, R; Löfdahl, C-G

2005-10-01

Patient-centred care is the current vogue in chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD), but it is only recently that robust techniques have become available to determine patients' values and preferences. In this international cross-sectional study, patients' concerns and expectations regarding COPD exacerbations were explored using discrete choice modelling. A fractional factorial design was used to develop scenarios comprising a combination of levels for nine different attributes. In face-to-face interviews, patients were presented with paired scenarios and asked to choose the least preferable. Multinomial logit (with hierarchical Bayes) methods were used to estimate utilities. A total of 125 patients (82 males; mean age 66 yrs; 4.6 mean exacerbations.yr-1) were recruited. The attributes of exacerbations considered most important were impact on everyday life (20%), need for medical care (16%), number of future attacks (12%) and breathlessness (11%). The next most important attributes were speed of recovery, productive cough and social impact (all 9%), followed by sleep disturbance and impact on mood (both 7%). Importantly, analysis of utility shifts showed that patients most feared being hospitalised, housebound or bedridden. These issues were more important than symptom improvement. Strategies for the clinical management of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease should clearly address patients' concerns and focus on preventing and treating exacerbations to avoid these feared outcomes.

Experimental Investigation of Transient Sublimator Performance

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Sheth, Rubik B.; Stephan, Ryan A.; Leimkuehler, Thomas O.

2012-01-01

Sublimators have been used as heat rejection devices for a variety of space applications including the Apollo Lunar Module and the Extravehicular Mobility Unit (EMU). Sublimators typically operate with steady-state feedwater utilization at or near 100%. However, sublimators are currently being considered for operations in a cyclical topping mode, which represents a new mode of operation for sublimators. Sublimators can be used as a supplemental heat rejection device during mission phases where the environmental temperature or heat rejection requirement changes rapidly. This scenario may occur during low lunar orbit, low earth orbit, or other planetary orbits. In these mission phases, the need for supplemental heat rejection will vary between zero and some fraction of the overall heat load. In particular, supplemental heat rejection is required for the portion of the orbit where the radiative sink temperature exceeds the system setpoint temperature. This paper will describe the effects of these transient starts and stops on the feedwater utilization during various feedwater timing scenarios. Experimental data from various scenarios is analyzed to investigate feedwater consumption efficiency under the cyclical conditions. Start up utilization tests were conducted to better understand the transient performance. This paper also provides recommendations for future sublimator design and transient operation.

Estimates of wood energy demand for residential use in Alaska: an update

Treesearch

Jean M. Daniels; Michael D. Paruszkiewicz

2016-01-01

Efforts to amend the Tongass National Forest Land Management Plan have necessitated the development of several management scenarios to assist with planning efforts. One scenario focuses on increasing the utilization of sawmill residues and low-grade material as feedstock for expanding biomass energy markets. The development of a biomass industry is viewed as a solution...

An Information Theoretic Approach for Measuring Data Discovery and Utilization During Analytical and Decision Making Processes

DTIC Science & Technology

2015-07-31

and make the expected decision outcomes. The scenario is based around a scripted storyboard where an organized crime network is operating in a city to...interdicted by law enforcement to disrupt the network. The scenario storyboard was used to develop a probabilistic vehicle traffic model in order to

A social choice-based methodology for treated wastewater reuse in urban and suburban areas.

PubMed

Mahjouri, Najmeh; Pourmand, Ehsan

2017-07-01

Reusing treated wastewater for supplying water demands such as landscape and agricultural irrigation in urban and suburban areas has become a major water supply approach especially in regions struggling with water shortage. Due to limited available treated wastewater to satisfy all water demands, conflicts may arise in allocating treated wastewater to water users. Since there is usually more than one decision maker and more than one criterion to measure the impact of each water allocation scenario, effective tools are needed to combine individual preferences to reach a collective decision. In this paper, a new social choice (SC) method, which can consider some indifference thresholds for decision makers, is proposed for evaluating and ranking treated wastewater and urban runoff allocation scenarios to water users in urban and suburban areas. Some SC methods, namely plurality voting, Borda count, pairwise comparisons, Hare system, dictatorship, and approval voting, are applied for comparing and evaluating the results. Different scenarios are proposed for allocating treated wastewater and urban runoff to landscape irrigation, agricultural lands as well as artificial recharge of aquifer in the Tehran metropolitan Area, Iran. The main stakeholders rank the proposed scenarios based on their utilities using two different approaches. The proposed method suggests ranking of the scenarios based on the stakeholders' utilities and considering the scores they assigned to each scenario. Comparing the results of the proposed method with those of six different SC methods shows that the obtained ranks are mostly in compliance with the social welfare.

Cost Analysis of Integrating the PrePex Medical Device into a Voluntary Medical Male Circumcision Program in Zimbabwe

PubMed Central

Hatzold, Karin; Reed, Jason; Edgil, Dianna; Jaramillo, Juan; Castor, Delivette; Forsythe, Steven; Xaba, Sinokuthemba; Mugurungi, Owen

2014-01-01

Background Fourteen African countries are scaling up voluntary medical male circumcision (VMMC) for HIV prevention. Several devices that might offer alternatives to the three WHO-approved surgical VMMC procedures have been evaluated for use in adults. One such device is PrePex, which was prequalified by the WHO in May 2013. We utilized data from one of the PrePex field studies undertaken in Zimbabwe to identify cost considerations for introducing PrePex into the existing surgical circumcision program. Methods and Findings We evaluated the cost drivers and overall unit cost of VMMC at a site providing surgical VMMC as a routine service (“routine surgery site”) and at a site that had added PrePex VMMC procedures to routine surgical VMMC as part of a research study (“mixed study site”). We examined the main cost drivers and modeled hypothetical scenarios with varying ratios of surgical to PrePex circumcisions, different levels of site utilization, and a range of device prices. The unit costs per VMMC for the routine surgery and mixed study sites were $56 and $61, respectively. The two greatest contributors to unit price at both sites were consumables and staff. In the hypothetical scenarios, the unit cost increased as site utilization decreased, as the ratio of PrePex to surgical VMMC increased, and as device price increased. Conclusions VMMC unit costs for routine surgery and mixed study sites were similar. Low service utilization was projected to result in the greatest increases in unit price. Countries that wish to incorporate PrePex into their circumcision programs should plan to maximize staff utilization and ensure that sites function at maximum capacity to achieve the lowest unit cost. Further costing studies will be necessary once routine implementation of PrePex-based circumcision is established. PMID:24801515

Optimizing the interpretation of CT for appendicitis: modeling health utilities for clinical practice.

PubMed

Blackmore, C Craig; Terasawa, Teruhiko

2006-02-01

Error in radiology can be reduced by standardizing the interpretation of imaging studies to the optimum sensitivity and specificity. In this report, the authors demonstrate how the optimal interpretation of appendiceal computed tomography (CT) can be determined and how it varies in different clinical scenarios. Utility analysis and receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve modeling were used to determine the trade-off between false-positive and false-negative test results to determine the optimal operating point on the ROC curve for the interpretation of appendicitis CT. Modeling was based on a previous meta-analysis for the accuracy of CT and on literature estimates of the utilities of various health states. The posttest probability of appendicitis was derived using Bayes's theorem. At a low prevalence of disease (screening), appendicitis CT should be interpreted at high specificity (97.7%), even at the expense of lower sensitivity (75%). Conversely, at a high probability of disease, high sensitivity (97.4%) is preferred (specificity 77.8%). When the clinical diagnosis of appendicitis is equivocal, CT interpretation should emphasize both sensitivity and specificity (sensitivity 92.3%, specificity 91.5%). Radiologists can potentially decrease medical error and improve patient health by varying the interpretation of appendiceal CT on the basis of the clinical probability of appendicitis. This report is an example of how utility analysis can be used to guide radiologists in the interpretation of imaging studies and provide guidance on appropriate targets for the standardization of interpretation.

Measured effects of wind turbine generation at the Block Island Power Company

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Wilreker, V. F.; Smith, R. F.; Stiller, P. H.; Scot, G. W.; Shaltens, R. K.

1984-01-01

Data measurements made on the NASA MOD-OA 200-kw wind-turbine generator (WTG) installed on a utility grid form the basis for an overall performance analysis. Fuel displacement/-savings, dynamic interactions, and WTG excitation (reactive-power) control effects are studied. Continuous recording of a large number of electrical and mechanical variables on FM magnetic tape permit evaluation and correlation of phenomena over a bandwidth of at least 20 Hz. Because the wind-power penetration reached peaks of 60 percent, the impact of wind fluctuation and wind-turbine/diesel-utility interaction is evaluated in a worst-case scenario. The speed-governor dynamics of the diesel units exhibited an underdamped response, and the utility operation procedures were not altered to optimize overall WTG/utility performance. Primary findings over the data collection period are: a calculated 6.7-percent reduction in fuel consumption while generating 11 percent of the total electrical energy; acceptable system voltage and frequency fluctuations with WTG connected; and applicability of WTG excitation schemes using voltage, power, or VARS as the controlled variable.

Derivation of strontium-90 and cesium-137 residual radioactive material guidelines for the Laboratory for Energy-Related Health Research, University of California, Davis

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Nimmagadda, M.; Yu, C.

1993-04-01

Residual radioactive material guidelines for strontium-90 and cesium-137 were derived for the Laboratory for Energy-Related Health Research (LEHR) site in Davis, California. The guideline derivation was based on a dose limit of 100 mrem/yr. The US Department of Energy (DOE) residual radioactive material guideline computer code, RESRAD, was used in this evaluation; this code implements the methodology described in the DOE manual for implementing residual radioactive material guidelines. Three potential site utilization scenarios were considered with the assumption that, for a period of 1,000 years following remedial action, the site will be utilized without radiological restrictions. The defined scenarios varymore » with regard to use of the site, time spent at the site, and sources of food consumed. The results of the evaluation indicate that the basic dose limit of 100 mrem/yr will not be exceeded within 1,000 years for either strontium-90 or cesium-137, provided that the soil concentrations of these radionuclides at the LEHR site do not exceed the following levels: 71,000 pCi/g for strontium-90 and 91 pCi/g for cesium-137 for Scenario A (researcher: the expected scenario); 160,000 pCi/g for strontium-90 and 220 pCi/g for cesium-137 for Scenario B (recreationist: a plausible scenario); and 37 pCi/g for strontium-90 and 32 pCi/g for cesium-137 for Scenario C (resident farmer ingesting food produced in the contaminated area: a plausible scenario). The derived guidelines are single-radionuclide guidelines and are linearly proportional to the dose limit used in the calculations. In setting the actual strontium-90 and cesium-137 guidelines for the LEHR site, DOE will apply the as low as reasonably achievable (ALARA) policy to the decision-making process, along with other factors such as whether a particular scenario is reasonable and appropriate.« less

Wide-area mapping of small-scale features in agricultural landscapes using airborne remote sensing

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

O'Connell, Jerome; Bradter, Ute; Benton, Tim G.

2015-11-01

Natural and semi-natural habitats in agricultural landscapes are likely to come under increasing pressure with the global population set to exceed 9 billion by 2050. These non-cropped habitats are primarily made up of trees, hedgerows and grassy margins and their amount, quality and spatial configuration can have strong implications for the delivery and sustainability of various ecosystem services. In this study high spatial resolution (0.5 m) colour infrared aerial photography (CIR) was used in object based image analysis for the classification of non-cropped habitat in a 10,029 ha area of southeast England. Three classification scenarios were devised using 4 and 9 class scenarios. The machine learning algorithm Random Forest (RF) was used to reduce the number of variables used for each classification scenario by 25.5 % ± 2.7%. Proportion of votes from the 4 class hierarchy was made available to the 9 class scenarios and where the highest ranked variables in all cases. This approach allowed for misclassified parent objects to be correctly classified at a lower level. A single object hierarchy with 4 class proportion of votes produced the best result (kappa 0.909). Validation of the optimum training sample size in RF showed no significant difference between mean internal out-of-bag error and external validation. As an example of the utility of this data, we assessed habitat suitability for a declining farmland bird, the yellowhammer (Emberiza citronella), which requires hedgerows associated with grassy margins. We found that ˜22% of hedgerows were within 200 m of margins with an area >183.31 m2. The results from this analysis can form a key information source at the environmental and policy level in landscape optimisation for food production and ecosystem service sustainability.

Is it beneficial to increase the provision of thrombolysis?-- a discrete-event simulation model.

PubMed

Barton, M; McClean, S; Gillespie, J; Garg, L; Wilson, D; Fullerton, K

2012-07-01

Although Thrombolysis has been licensed in the UK since 2003, it is still administered only to a small percentage of eligible patients. We consider the impact of investing the impact of thrombolysis on important acute stroke services, and the effect on quality of life. The concept is illustrated using data from the Northern Ireland Stroke Service. Retrospective study. We first present results of survival analysis utilizing length of stay (LOS) for discharge destinations, based on data from the Belfast City Hospital (BCH). None of these patients actually received thrombolysis but from those who would have been eligible, we created two initial groups, the first representing a scenario where they received thrombolysis and the second comprising those who do not receive thrombolysis. On the basis of the survival analysis, we created several subgroups based on discharge destination. We then developed a discrete event simulation (DES) model, where each group is a patient pathway within the simulation. Coxian phase type distributions were used to model the group LOS. Various scenarios were explored focusing on cost-effectiveness across hospital, community and social services had thrombolysis been administered to these patients, and the possible improvement in quality of life, should the proportion of patients who are administered thrombolysis be increased. Our aim in simulating various scenarios for this historical group of patients is to assess what the cost-effectiveness of thrombolysis would have been under different scenarios; from this we can infer the likely cost-effectiveness of future policies. The cost of thrombolysis is offset by reduction in hospital, community rehabilitation and institutional care costs, with a corresponding improvement in quality of life. Our model suggests that provision of thrombolysis would produce moderate overall improvement to the service assuming current levels of funding.

Wide-area mapping of small-scale features in agricultural landscapes using airborne remote sensing.

PubMed

O'Connell, Jerome; Bradter, Ute; Benton, Tim G

2015-11-01

Natural and semi-natural habitats in agricultural landscapes are likely to come under increasing pressure with the global population set to exceed 9 billion by 2050. These non-cropped habitats are primarily made up of trees, hedgerows and grassy margins and their amount, quality and spatial configuration can have strong implications for the delivery and sustainability of various ecosystem services. In this study high spatial resolution (0.5 m) colour infrared aerial photography (CIR) was used in object based image analysis for the classification of non-cropped habitat in a 10,029 ha area of southeast England. Three classification scenarios were devised using 4 and 9 class scenarios. The machine learning algorithm Random Forest (RF) was used to reduce the number of variables used for each classification scenario by 25.5 % ± 2.7%. Proportion of votes from the 4 class hierarchy was made available to the 9 class scenarios and where the highest ranked variables in all cases. This approach allowed for misclassified parent objects to be correctly classified at a lower level. A single object hierarchy with 4 class proportion of votes produced the best result (kappa 0.909). Validation of the optimum training sample size in RF showed no significant difference between mean internal out-of-bag error and external validation. As an example of the utility of this data, we assessed habitat suitability for a declining farmland bird, the yellowhammer ( Emberiza citronella ), which requires hedgerows associated with grassy margins. We found that ∼22% of hedgerows were within 200 m of margins with an area >183.31 m 2 . The results from this analysis can form a key information source at the environmental and policy level in landscape optimisation for food production and ecosystem service sustainability.

Crystallization dynamics in glass-forming systems

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Cullinan, Timothy Edward

Crystallization under far-from-equilibrium conditions is investigated for two different scenarios: crystallization of the metallic glass alloy Cu 50Zr 50 and solidification of a transparent organic compound, o-terphenyl. For Cu 50Zr 50, crystallization kinetics are quanti ed through a new procedure that directly fits thermal analysis data to the commonly utilized JMAK model. The phase evolution during crystallization is quantified through in-situ measurements (HEXRD, DSC) and ex-situ microstructural analysis (TEM, HRTEM). The influence of chemical partitioning, diffusion, and crystallographic orientation on this sequence are examined. For o-terphenyl, the relationship between crystal growth velocity and interface undercooling is systematically studied via directionalmore » solidification.« less

Controlled ecological life support system: Transportation analysis

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Gustan, E.; Vinopal, T.

1982-01-01

This report discusses a study utilizing a systems analysis approach to determine which NASA missions would benefit from controlled ecological life support system (CELSS) technology. The study focuses on manned missions selected from NASA planning forecasts covering the next half century. Comparison of various life support scenarios for the selected missions and characteristics of projected transportation systems provided data for cost evaluations. This approach identified missions that derived benefits from a CELSS, showed the magnitude of the potential cost savings, and indicated which system or combination of systems would apply. This report outlines the analytical approach used in the evaluation, describes the missions and systems considered, and sets forth the benefits derived from CELSS when applicable.

NAS Demand Predictions, Transportation Systems Analysis Model (TSAM) Compared with Other Forecasts

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Viken, Jeff; Dollyhigh, Samuel; Smith, Jeremy; Trani, Antonio; Baik, Hojong; Hinze, Nicholas; Ashiabor, Senanu

2006-01-01

The current work incorporates the Transportation Systems Analysis Model (TSAM) to predict the future demand for airline travel. TSAM is a multi-mode, national model that predicts the demand for all long distance travel at a county level based upon population and demographics. The model conducts a mode choice analysis to compute the demand for commercial airline travel based upon the traveler s purpose of the trip, value of time, cost and time of the trip,. The county demand for airline travel is then aggregated (or distributed) to the airport level, and the enplanement demand at commercial airports is modeled. With the growth in flight demand, and utilizing current airline flight schedules, the Fratar algorithm is used to develop future flight schedules in the NAS. The projected flights can then be flown through air transportation simulators to quantify the ability of the NAS to meet future demand. A major strength of the TSAM analysis is that scenario planning can be conducted to quantify capacity requirements at individual airports, based upon different future scenarios. Different demographic scenarios can be analyzed to model the demand sensitivity to them. Also, it is fairly well know, but not well modeled at the airport level, that the demand for travel is highly dependent on the cost of travel, or the fare yield of the airline industry. The FAA projects the fare yield (in constant year dollars) to keep decreasing into the future. The magnitude and/or direction of these projections can be suspect in light of the general lack of airline profits and the large rises in airline fuel cost. Also, changes in travel time and convenience have an influence on the demand for air travel, especially for business travel. Future planners cannot easily conduct sensitivity studies of future demand with the FAA TAF data, nor with the Boeing or Airbus projections. In TSAM many factors can be parameterized and various demand sensitivities can be predicted for future travel. These resulting demand scenarios can be incorporated into future flight schedules, therefore providing a quantifiable demand for flights in the NAS for a range of futures. In addition, new future airline business scenarios are investigated that illustrate when direct flights can replace connecting flights and larger aircraft can be substituted, only when justified by demand.

EOS imaging versus current radiography: A health technology assessment study

PubMed Central

Mahboub-Ahari, Alireza; Hajebrahimi, Sakineh; Yusefi, Mahmoud; Velayati, Ashraf

2016-01-01

Background: EOS is a 2D/3D muscle skeletal diagnostic imaging system. The device has been developed to produce a high quality 2D, full body radiographs in standing, sitting and squatting positions. Three dimensional images can be reconstructed via sterEOS software. This Health Technology Assessment study aimed to investigate efficacy, effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of new emerged EOS imaging system in comparison with conventional x-ray radiographic techniques. Methods: All cost and outcome data were assessed from Iran's Ministry of Health Perspective. Data for clinical effectiveness was extracted using a rigorous systematic review. As clinical outcomes the rate of x-ray emission and related quality of life were compared with Computed Radiography (CR) and Digital Radiography (DR). Standard costing method was conducted to find related direct medical costs. In order to examine robustness of the calculated Incremental Cost Effectiveness Ratios (ICERs) we used two-way sensitivity analysis. GDP Per capita of Islamic Republic of Iran (2012) adopted as cost-effectiveness threshold. Results: Review of related literature highlighted the lack of rigorous evidence for clinical outcomes. Ultra low dose EOS imaging device is known as a safe intervention because of FDA, CE and CSA certificates. The rate of emitted X-ray was 2 to 18 fold lower for EOS compared to the conventional techniques (p<0.001). The Incremental Cost Effectiveness Ratio for EOS relative to CR calculated $50706 in baseline analysis (the first scenario) and $50714, $9446 respectively for the second and third scenarios. Considering the value of neither $42146 as upper limit, nor the first neither the second scenario could pass the cost-effectiveness threshold for Iran. Conclusion: EOS imaging technique might not be considered as a cost-effective intervention in routine practice of health system, especially within in-patient wards. Scenario analysis shows that, only in an optimum condition such as lower assembling costs and higher utilization rates, the device can be recruited for research and therapeutic purposes in pediatric orthopedic centers. PMID:27390701

Simulating Operations at a Spaceport

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Nevins, Michael R.

2007-01-01

SPACESIM is a computer program for detailed simulation of operations at a spaceport. SPACESIM is being developed to greatly improve existing spaceports and to aid in designing, building, and operating future spaceports, given that there is a worldwide trend in spaceport operations from very expensive, research- oriented launches to more frequent commercial launches. From an operational perspective, future spaceports are expected to resemble current airports and seaports, for which it is necessary to resolve issues of safety, security, efficient movement of machinery and people, cost effectiveness, timeliness, and maximizing effectiveness in utilization of resources. Simulations can be performed, for example, to (1) simultaneously analyze launches of reusable and expendable rockets and identify bottlenecks arising from competition for limited resources or (2) perform what-if scenario analyses to identify optimal scenarios prior to making large capital investments. SPACESIM includes an object-oriented discrete-event-simulation engine. (Discrete- event simulation has been used to assess processes at modern seaports.) The simulation engine is built upon the Java programming language for maximum portability. Extensible Markup Language (XML) is used for storage of data to enable industry-standard interchange of data with other software. A graphical user interface facilitates creation of scenarios and analysis of data.

Cost-effectiveness of home visits in the outpatient treatment of patients with alcohol dependence.

PubMed

Moraes, Edilaine; Campos, Geraldo M; Figlie, Neliana B; Laranjeira, Ronaldo; Ferraz, Marcos B

2010-01-01

The purpose of this study was to compare the cost-effectiveness of conventional outpatient treatment for alcoholic patients (CT) with this same conventional treatment plus home visits (HV), a new proposal for intervention within the Brazilian outpatient treatment system. A cost-effectiveness evaluation alongside a 12-week randomized clinical trial was performed. We identified the resources utilized by each intervention, as well as the cost according to National Health System (SUS), Brazilian Medical Association (AMB) tables of fees, and others based on 2005 data. The incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) was estimated as the main outcome measure - abstinent cases at the end of treatment. There were 51.8% abstinent cases for HV and 43.1% for CT, a clinically relevant finding. Other outcome measures, such as quality of life, also showed significant improvements that favored HV. The baseline scenario presented an ICER of USD 1,852. Sensitivity analysis showed an ICER of USD 689 (scenario favoring HV) and USD 2,334 (scenario favoring CT). The HV treatment was found to be cost-effective according to the WHO Commission on Macroeconomics and Health. 2009 S. Karger AG, Basel.

Mirage events & driver haptic steering alerts in a motion-base driving simulator: A method for selecting an optimal HMI.

PubMed

Talamonti, Walter; Tijerina, Louis; Blommer, Mike; Swaminathan, Radhakrishnan; Curry, Reates; Ellis, R Darin

2017-11-01

This paper describes a new method, a 'mirage scenario,' to support formative evaluation of driver alerting or warning displays for manual and automated driving. This method provides driving contexts (e.g., various Times-To-Collision (TTCs) to a lead vehicle) briefly presented and then removed. In the present study, during each mirage event, a haptic steering display was evaluated. This haptic display indicated a steering response may be initiated to drive around an obstacle ahead. A motion-base simulator was used in a 32-participant study to present vehicle motion cues similar to the actual application. Surprise was neither present nor of concern, as it would be for a summative evaluation of a forward collision warning system. Furthermore, no collision avoidance maneuvers were performed, thereby reducing the risk of simulator sickness. This paper illustrates the mirage scenario procedures, the rating methods and definitions used with the mirage scenario, and analysis of the ratings obtained, together with a multi-attribute utility theory (MAUT) approach to evaluate and select among alternative designs for future summative evaluation. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

COBRA ATD minefield detection model initial performance analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Holmes, V. Todd; Kenton, Arthur C.; Hilton, Russell J.; Witherspoon, Ned H.; Holloway, John H., Jr.

2000-08-01

A statistical performance analysis of the USMC Coastal Battlefield Reconnaissance and Analysis (COBRA) Minefield Detection (MFD) Model has been performed in support of the COBRA ATD Program under execution by the Naval Surface Warfare Center/Dahlgren Division/Coastal Systems Station . This analysis uses the Veridian ERIM International MFD model from the COBRA Sensor Performance Evaluation and Computational Tools for Research Analysis modeling toolbox and a collection of multispectral mine detection algorithm response distributions for mines and minelike clutter objects. These mine detection response distributions were generated form actual COBRA ATD test missions over littoral zone minefields. This analysis serves to validate both the utility and effectiveness of the COBRA MFD Model as a predictive MFD performance too. COBRA ATD minefield detection model algorithm performance results based on a simulate baseline minefield detection scenario are presented, as well as result of a MFD model algorithm parametric sensitivity study.

Testbeds for Assessing Critical Scenarios in Power Control Systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dondossola, Giovanna; Deconinck, Geert; Garrone, Fabrizio; Beitollahi, Hakem

The paper presents a set of control system scenarios implemented in two testbeds developed in the context of the European Project CRUTIAL - CRitical UTility InfrastructurAL Resilience. The selected scenarios refer to power control systems encompassing information and communication security of SCADA systems for grid teleoperation, impact of attacks on inter-operator communications in power emergency conditions, impact of intentional faults on the secondary and tertiary control in power grids with distributed generators. Two testbeds have been developed for assessing the effect of the attacks and prototyping resilient architectures.

Cost-Benefit Analysis of Green Infrastructures on Community Stormwater Reduction and Utilization: A Case of Beijing, China.

PubMed

Liu, Wen; Chen, Weiping; Feng, Qi; Peng, Chi; Kang, Peng

2016-12-01

Cost-benefit analysis is demanded for guiding the plan, design and construction of green infrastructure practices in rapidly urbanized regions. We developed a framework to calculate the costs and benefits of different green infrastructures on stormwater reduction and utilization. A typical community of 54,783 m 2 in Beijing was selected for case study. For the four designed green infrastructure scenarios (green space depression, porous brick pavement, storage pond, and their combination), the average annual costs of green infrastructure facilities are ranged from 40.54 to 110.31 thousand yuan, and the average of the cost per m 3 stormwater reduction and utilization is 4.61 yuan. The total average annual benefits of stormwater reduction and utilization by green infrastructures of the community are ranged from 63.24 to 250.15 thousand yuan, and the benefit per m 3 stormwater reduction and utilization is ranged from 5.78 to 11.14 yuan. The average ratio of average annual benefit to cost of four green infrastructure facilities is 1.91. The integrated facilities had the highest economic feasibility with a benefit to cost ratio of 2.27, and followed by the storage pond construction with a benefit to cost ratio of 2.14. The results suggested that while the stormwater reduction and utilization by green infrastructures had higher construction and maintenance costs, their comprehensive benefits including source water replacements benefits, environmental benefits and avoided cost benefits are potentially interesting. The green infrastructure practices should be promoted for sustainable management of urban stormwater.

Modeling Electricity Sector Vulnerabilities and Costs Associated with Water Temperatures Under Scenarios of Climate Change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Macknick, J.; Miara, A.; Brinkman, G.; Ibanez, E.; Newmark, R. L.

2014-12-01

The reliability of the power sector is highly vulnerable to variability in the availability and temperature of water resources, including those that might result from potential climatic changes or from competition from other users. In the past decade, power plants throughout the United States have had to shut down or curtail generation due to a lack of available water or from elevated water temperatures. These disruptions in power plant performance can have negative impacts on energy security and can be costly to address. Analysis of water-related vulnerabilities requires modeling capabilities with high spatial and temporal resolution. This research provides an innovative approach to energy-water modeling by evaluating the costs and reliability of a power sector region under policy and climate change scenarios that affect water resource availability and temperatures. This work utilizes results from a spatially distributed river water temperature model coupled with a thermoelectric power plant model to provide inputs into an electricity production cost model that operates on a high spatial and temporal resolution. The regional transmission organization ISO-New England, which includes six New England states and over 32 Gigawatts of power capacity, is utilized as a case study. Hydrological data and power plant operations are analyzed over an eleven year period from 2000-2010 under four scenarios that include climate impacts on water resources and air temperatures as well as strict interpretations of regulations that can affect power plant operations due to elevated water temperatures. Results of these model linkages show how the power sector's reliability and economic performance can be affected by changes in water temperatures and water availability. The effective reliability and capacity value of thermal electric generators are quantified and discussed in the context of current as well as potential future water resource characteristics.

Viral Load Criteria and Threshold Optimization to Improve HIV Incidence Assay Characteristics - A CEPHIA Analysis

PubMed Central

Kassanjee, Reshma; Pilcher, Christopher D; Busch, Michael P; Murphy, Gary; Facente, Shelley N; Keating, Sheila M; Mckinney, Elaine; Marson, Kara; Price, Matthew A; Martin, Jeffrey N; Little, Susan J; Hecht, Frederick M; Kallas, Esper G; Welte, Alex

2016-01-01

Objective Assays for classifying HIV infections as ‘recent’ or ‘non-recent’ for incidence surveillance fail to simultaneously achieve large mean durations of ‘recent’ infection (MDRIs) and low ‘false-recent’ rates (FRRs), particularly in virally suppressed persons. The potential for optimizing recent infection testing algorithms (RITAs), by introducing viral load criteria and tuning thresholds used to dichotomize quantitative measures, is explored. Design The Consortium for the Evaluation and Performance of HIV Incidence Assays characterized over 2000 possible RITAs constructed from seven assays (LAg, BED, Less-sensitive Vitros, Vitros Avidity, BioRad Avidity, Architect Avidity and Geenius) applied to 2500 diverse specimens. Methods MDRIs were estimated using regression, and FRRs as observed ‘recent’ proportions, in various specimen sets. Context-specific FRRs were estimated for hypothetical scenarios. FRRs were made directly comparable by constructing RITAs with the same MDRI through the tuning of thresholds. RITA utility was summarized by the precision of incidence estimation. Results All assays produce high FRRs amongst treated subjects and elite controllers (10%-80%). Viral load testing reduces FRRs, but diminishes MDRIs. Context-specific FRRs vary substantially by scenario – BioRad Avidity and LAg provided the lowest FRRs and highest incidence precision in scenarios considered. Conclusions The introduction of a low viral load threshold provides crucial improvements in RITAs. However, it does not eliminate non-zero FRRs, and MDRIs must be consistently estimated. The tuning of thresholds is essential for comparing and optimizing the use of assays. The translation of directly measured FRRs into context-specific FRRs critically affects their magnitudes and our understanding of the utility of assays. PMID:27454561

A market systems analysis of the U.S. Sport Utility Vehicle market considering frontal crash safety technology and policy.

PubMed

Hoffenson, Steven; Frischknecht, Bart D; Papalambros, Panos Y

2013-01-01

Active safety features and adjustments to the New Car Assessment Program (NCAP) consumer-information crash tests have the potential to decrease the number of serious traffic injuries each year, according to previous studies. However, literature suggests that risk reductions, particularly in the automotive market, are often accompanied by adjusted consumer risk tolerance, and so these potential safety benefits may not be fully realized due to changes in consumer purchasing or driving behavior. This article approaches safety in the new vehicle market, particularly in the Sport Utility Vehicle and Crossover Utility Vehicle segments, from a market systems perspective. Crash statistics and simulations are used to predict the effects of design and policy changes on occupant crash safety, and discrete choice experiments are conducted to estimate the values consumers place on vehicle attributes. These models are combined in a market simulation that forecasts how consumers respond to the available vehicle alternatives, resulting in predictions of the market share of each vehicle and how the change in fleet mixture influences societal outcomes including injuries, fuel consumption, and firm profits. The model is tested for a scenario where active safety features are implemented across the new vehicle fleet and a scenario where the U.S. frontal NCAP test speed is modified. While results exhibit evidence of consumer risk adjustment, they support adding active safety features and lowering the NCAP frontal test speed, as these changes are predicted to improve the welfare of both firms and society. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Exploring NASA Human Spaceflight and Pioneering Scenarios

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Zapata, Edgar; Wilhite, Alan

2015-01-01

The life cycle cost analysis of space exploration scenarios is explored via a merger of (1) scenario planning, separating context and (2) modeling and analysis of specific content. Numerous scenarios are presented, leading to cross-cutting recommendations addressing life cycle costs, productivity, and approaches applicable to any scenarios. Approaches address technical and non-technical factors.

Cost-effectiveness of osimertinib in the UK for advanced EGFR-T790M non-small cell lung cancer.

PubMed

Bertranou, Evelina; Bodnar, Carolyn; Dansk, Viktor; Greystoke, Alastair; Large, Samuel; Dyer, Matthew

2018-02-01

This study presents the cost-utility analysis that was developed to inform the NICE health technology assessment of osimertinib vs platinum-based doublet chemotherapy (PDC) in patients with EGFR-T790M mutation-positive non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC) who have progressed on epidermal growth factor receptor-tyrosine kinase inhibitor (EGFR-TKI) therapy. A partitioned survival model with three health states (progression-free, progressed disease, and death) from a UK payer perspective and over lifetime (15 years) was developed. Direct costs included disease management, treatment-related (acquisition, administration, monitoring, adverse events), and T790M testing costs. Efficacy and safety data were taken from clinical trials AURA extension and AURA2 for osimertinib and IMPRESS for PDC. An adjusted indirect treatment comparison was applied to reduce the potential bias in the non-randomized comparison. Parametric functions were utilized to extrapolate survival beyond the observed period. Health state utility values were calculated from EQ-5D data collected in the trials and valued using UK tariffs. Resource use and costs were based on published sources. Osimertinib was associated with a gain of 1.541 quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs) at an incremental cost of £64,283 vs PDC (incremental cost-effectiveness ratio [ICER]: £41,705/QALY gained). Scenario analyses showed that none of the plausible scenarios produced an ICER above £44,000 per QALY gained, and probabilistic sensitivity analyses demonstrated a 63.4% probability that osimertinib will be cost-effective at a willingness-to-pay threshold of £50,000. The analysis is subject to some level of uncertainty inherent to phase 2 single-arm data and the immaturity of the currently available survival data for osimertinib. Osimertinib may be considered a cost-effective treatment option compared with PDC in the second-line setting in patients with EGFR-T790M mutation-positive NSCLC from a UK payer perspective. Further data from the ongoing AURA clinical trial program will reduce the inherent uncertainty in the analysis.

Sensitivity analysis of the FEMA HAZUS-MH MR4 Earthquake Model using seismic events affecting King County Washington

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Neighbors, C.; Noriega, G. R.; Caras, Y.; Cochran, E. S.

2010-12-01

HAZUS-MH MR4 (HAZards U. S. Multi-Hazard Maintenance Release 4) is a risk-estimation software developed by FEMA to calculate potential losses due to natural disasters. Federal, state, regional, and local government use the HAZUS-MH Earthquake Model for earthquake risk mitigation, preparedness, response, and recovery planning (FEMA, 2003). In this study, we examine several parameters used by the HAZUS-MH Earthquake Model methodology to understand how modifying the user-defined settings affect ground motion analysis, seismic risk assessment and earthquake loss estimates. This analysis focuses on both shallow crustal and deep intraslab events in the American Pacific Northwest. Specifically, the historic 1949 Mw 6.8 Olympia, 1965 Mw 6.6 Seattle-Tacoma and 2001 Mw 6.8 Nisqually normal fault intraslab events and scenario large-magnitude Seattle reverse fault crustal events are modeled. Inputs analyzed include variations of deterministic event scenarios combined with hazard maps and USGS ShakeMaps. This approach utilizes the capacity of the HAZUS-MH Earthquake Model to define landslide- and liquefaction- susceptibility hazards with local groundwater level and slope stability information. Where Shakemap inputs are not used, events are run in combination with NEHRP soil classifications to determine site amplification effects. The earthquake component of HAZUS-MH applies a series of empirical ground motion attenuation relationships developed from source parameters of both regional and global historical earthquakes to estimate strong ground motion. Ground motion and resulting ground failure due to earthquakes are then used to calculate, direct physical damage for general building stock, essential facilities, and lifelines, including transportation systems and utility systems. Earthquake losses are expressed in structural, economic and social terms. Where available, comparisons between recorded earthquake losses and HAZUS-MH earthquake losses are used to determine how region coordinators can most effectively utilize their resources for earthquake risk mitigation. This study is being conducted in collaboration with King County, WA officials to determine the best model inputs necessary to generate robust HAZUS-MH models for the Pacific Northwest.

Scenario Analysis for the Safety Assessment of Nuclear Waste Repositories: A Critical Review.

PubMed

Tosoni, Edoardo; Salo, Ahti; Zio, Enrico

2018-04-01

A major challenge in scenario analysis for the safety assessment of nuclear waste repositories pertains to the comprehensiveness of the set of scenarios selected for assessing the safety of the repository. Motivated by this challenge, we discuss the aspects of scenario analysis relevant to comprehensiveness. Specifically, we note that (1) it is necessary to make it clear why scenarios usually focus on a restricted set of features, events, and processes; (2) there is not yet consensus on the interpretation of comprehensiveness for guiding the generation of scenarios; and (3) there is a need for sound approaches to the treatment of epistemic uncertainties. © 2017 Society for Risk Analysis.

Improving the Pedagogy of Capital Structure Theory: An Excel Application

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Baltazar, Ramon; Maybee, Bryan; Santos, Michael R.

2012-01-01

This paper uses Excel to enhance the pedagogy of capital structure theory for corporate finance instructors and students. We provide a lesson plan that utilizes Excel spreadsheets and graphs to develop understanding of the theory. The theory is introduced in three scenarios that utilize Modigliani & Miller's Propositions and…

Spectrum/Orbit-Utilization Program

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Miller, Edward F.; Sawitz, Paul; Zusman, Fred

1988-01-01

Interferences among geostationary satellites determine allocations. Spectrum/Orbit Utilization Program (SOUP) is analytical computer program for determining mutual interferences among geostationary-satellite communication systems operating in given scenario. Major computed outputs are carrier-to-interference ratios at receivers at specified stations on Earth. Information enables determination of acceptability of planned communication systems. Written in FORTRAN.

Landscape Characterization and Representativeness Analysis for Understanding Sampling Network Coverage

DOE Data Explorer

Maddalena, Damian; Hoffman, Forrest; Kumar, Jitendra; Hargrove, William

2014-08-01

Sampling networks rarely conform to spatial and temporal ideals, often comprised of network sampling points which are unevenly distributed and located in less than ideal locations due to access constraints, budget limitations, or political conflict. Quantifying the global, regional, and temporal representativeness of these networks by quantifying the coverage of network infrastructure highlights the capabilities and limitations of the data collected, facilitates upscaling and downscaling for modeling purposes, and improves the planning efforts for future infrastructure investment under current conditions and future modeled scenarios. The work presented here utilizes multivariate spatiotemporal clustering analysis and representativeness analysis for quantitative landscape characterization and assessment of the Fluxnet, RAINFOR, and ForestGEO networks. Results include ecoregions that highlight patterns of bioclimatic, topographic, and edaphic variables and quantitative representativeness maps of individual and combined networks.

ECG R-R peak detection on mobile phones.

PubMed

Sufi, F; Fang, Q; Cosic, I

2007-01-01

Mobile phones have become an integral part of modern life. Due to the ever increasing processing power, mobile phones are rapidly expanding its arena from a sole device of telecommunication to organizer, calculator, gaming device, web browser, music player, audio/video recording device, navigator etc. The processing power of modern mobile phones has been utilized by many innovative purposes. In this paper, we are proposing the utilization of mobile phones for monitoring and analysis of biosignal. The computation performed inside the mobile phone's processor will now be exploited for healthcare delivery. We performed literature review on RR interval detection from ECG and selected few PC based algorithms. Then, three of those existing RR interval detection algorithms were programmed on Java platform. Performance monitoring and comparison studies were carried out on three different mobile devices to determine their application on a realtime telemonitoring scenario.

Single-Frequency Ultrasound-Based Respiration Rate Estimation with Smartphones

PubMed Central

Wei, Jing

2018-01-01

Respiration monitoring is helpful in disease prevention and diagnosis. Traditional respiration monitoring requires users to wear devices on their bodies, which is inconvenient for them. In this paper, we aim to design a noncontact respiration rate detection system utilizing off-the-shelf smartphones. We utilize the single-frequency ultrasound as the media to detect the respiration activity. By analyzing the ultrasound signals received by the built-in microphone sensor in a smartphone, our system can derive the respiration rate of the user. The advantage of our method is that the transmitted signal is easy to generate and the signal analysis is simple, which has lower power consumption and thus is suitable for long-term monitoring in daily life. The experimental result shows that our system can achieve accurate respiration rate estimation under various scenarios. PMID:29853985

Cost-utility analysis of duloxetine in osteoarthritis: a US private payer perspective.

PubMed

Wielage, Ronald C; Bansal, Megha; Andrews, J Scott; Klein, Robert W; Happich, Michael

2013-06-01

Duloxetine has recently been approved in the USA for chronic musculoskeletal pain, including osteoarthritis and chronic low back pain. The cost effectiveness of duloxetine in osteoarthritis has not previously been assessed. Duloxetine is targeted as post first-line (after acetaminophen) treatment of moderate to severe pain. The objective of this study was to estimate the cost effectiveness of duloxetine in the treatment of osteoarthritis from a US private payer perspective compared with other post first-line oral treatments, including nonsteroidal anti-inflammatory drugs (NSAIDs), and both strong and weak opioids. A cost-utility analysis was performed using a discrete-state, time-dependent semi-Markov model based on the National Institute for Health and Clinical Excellence (NICE) model documented in its 2008 osteoarthritis guidelines. The model was extended for opioids by adding titration, discontinuation and additional adverse events (AEs). A life-long time horizon was adopted to capture the full consequences of NSAID-induced AEs. Fourteen health states comprised the structure of the model: treatment without persistent AE, six during-AE states, six post-AE states and death. Treatment-specific utilities were calculated using the transfer-to-utility method and Western Ontario and McMaster Universities Osteoarthritis Index (WOMAC) total scores from a meta-analysis of osteoarthritis clinical trials of 12 weeks and longer. Costs for 2011 were estimated using Red Book, The Agency for Healthcare Research and Quality's Healthcare Cost and Utilization Project database, the literature and, sparingly, expert opinion. One-way and probabilistic sensitivity analyses were undertaken, as well as subgroup analyses of patients over 65 years old and a population at greater risk of NSAID-related AEs. In the base case the model estimated naproxen to be the lowest total-cost treatment, tapentadol the highest cost, and duloxetine the most effective after considering AEs. Duloxetine accumulated 0.027 discounted quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs) more than naproxen and 0.013 more than oxycodone. Celecoxib was dominated by naproxen, tramadol was subject to extended dominance, and strong opioids were dominated by duloxetine. The model estimated an incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) of US$47,678 per QALY for duloxetine versus naproxen. One-way sensitivity analysis identified the probabilities of NSAID-related cardiovascular AEs as the inputs to which the ICER was most sensitive when duloxetine was compared with an NSAID. When compared with a strong opioid, duloxetine dominated the opioid under nearly all sensitivity analysis scenarios. When compared with tramadol, the ICER was most sensitive to the costs of duloxetine and tramadol. In subgroup analysis, the cost per QALY for duloxetine versus naproxen fell to US$24,125 for patients over 65 years and to US$18,472 for a population at high risk of cardiovascular and gastrointestinal AEs. The model estimated that duloxetine was potentially cost effective in the base-case population and more cost effective for subgroups over 65 years or at high risk of NSAID-related AEs. In sensitivity analysis, duloxetine dominated all strong opioids in nearly all scenarios.

Utility Analysis of Vision-related Quality of Life in Patients With Glaucoma and Different Perceptions from Ophthalmologists.

PubMed

Zhang, Shaodan; Liang, Yuanbo; Chen, Yanyun; Musch, David C; Zhang, Chun; Wang, Ningli

2015-09-01

To evaluate patient-perceived quality of life with glaucoma and to assess whether ophthalmologists fully appreciate patients' perceptions through utility analysis. Utility values were obtained from 87 glaucoma patients by linear rating scale (RS), standard gamble for blindness (SG), and time trade-off (TTO) methods. Identical questionnaires were delivered to ophthalmologists (n=26) at the same center, who were asked to assume they had mild (MD in better-seeing eye ≥-6 dB) or moderate to severe (MD in better-seeing eye <-6 dB) glaucoma. Responses from patients and ophthalmologists were compared. Patients with mild glaucoma gave a utility value of 0.70±0.14, 0.85±0.14, and 0.77±0.14 with RS, SG, and TTO method, respectively. Those with moderate to severe glaucoma generated corresponding utilities of 0.56±0.20, 0.75±0.20, and 0.78±0.11. RS and SG utilities were affected by disease severity and history of glaucoma surgery, whereas TTO utility was mainly related with education level and employment status of the patients. Ophthalmologists reported higher utility values than their patients when mild glaucoma was assumed (0.81±0.14, 0.96±0.05, and 0.95±0.05 for RS, SG, and TTO methods, respectively; P<0.05). Given the scenario of moderate to severe glaucoma, ophthalmologists gave significantly lower RS (0.35±0.21, P<0.001), but similar SG (0.74±0.27, P=0.84) and TTO (0.82±0.13, P=0.40) utility values, than the patients. Utility values are considerably decreased in Chinese patients with glaucoma. Ophthalmologists tend to substantially underestimate the impact of mild glaucoma on patients' quality of life. Better understanding patients' perceptions of glaucoma would be helpful for the establishment of shared decision making and patient-centered care.

How Do Iranian People with Spinal Cord Injury Understand Marriage?

PubMed Central

Merghati-Khoei, Effat; Maasoumi, Raziyeh; Zarei, Fatemeh; Laleh, Leila; Pasha, Yousofreza Yousofnia; Korte, Jeffrey E.

2017-01-01

Background: Spinal cord injury (SCI) is a life-altering experience. There is little information about the perspectives of people with SCI toward marriage. Purpose: To explore the understandings of Iranian adults with SCI about marriage. Methods: In this qualitative inquiry, using a semi-structured interview guide, we collected data from 53 single adults with SCI (41 men and 12 women) who were referred to the Brain and Spinal Cord Injury Research Center, Tehran University of Medical Sciences in Tehran. Barun and Clarke's thematic analysis approach was applied for data analysis. Results: “Marriage” was thematized in outer and inner scenarios. The outer scenario was explored in terms of physical disability identified as a seminal determinant in successful marriage. “Attractiveness,” “able body for breadwinning,” “sexually active,” and “reproduction” were dominant concepts extracted from the participants' narratives. The participants' inner scenarios revealed that marriage would be welcomed if a potential partner accepted them as a “whole person” regardless of their SCI condition. Conclusion: The findings suggest that adults with SCI do not ignore or reject marriage, however it was not their life priority due to major concerns that they had internalized. Considering the quality of care, people with SCI must be reassured about their potential to get married. SCI-based sexuality education and premarital counseling support the patients in their postmarital lives. Our findings will provide decision makers and health providers with significant insight for utilizing culturally appropriate services for people with SCI. PMID:29339879

Transportation analyses for the lunar-Mars initiative

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Woodcock, Gordon R.; Buddington, Patricia A.

1991-01-01

This paper focuses on certain results of an ongoing NASA-sponsored study by Boeing, including (1) a series of representative space exploration scenarios; (2) the levels of effort required to accomplish each; and (3) a range of candidate transportation system as partial implementations of the scenarios. This effort predated release of the Synthesis report; the three levels of activity described are not responses to the Synthesis architectures. These three levels (minimum, median and ambitious), do envelope the range of scope described in the four Synthesis architecture models. The level of analysis detail was to the current known level of detail of transportation hardware systems and mission scenarios. The study did not include detailed analysis of earth-to-orbit transportation, surface systems, or tracking and communications systems. The influence of earth-to-orbit systems was considered in terms of delivery capacity and cost. Aspects of additional options, such as in situ resource utilization are explored as needed to indicate potential benefits. Results favored cryogenic chemical propulsion for low activity levels and undemanding missions (such as cargo and some lunar missions), nuclear thermal propulsion for median activity levels similar to the Synthesis architectures, and nuclear thermal propulsion with aerobraking or nuclear electric propulsion for high activity levels. Solar electric propulsion was seen as having an important role if the present high unit cost (i.e., dollars per watt) of space photovoltaics could be reduced by a factor of five or more at production rates of megawatts per year.

Scenario analysis of carbon emissions' anti-driving effect on Qingdao's energy structure adjustment with an optimization model, Part II: Energy system planning and management.

PubMed

Wu, C B; Huang, G H; Liu, Z P; Zhen, J L; Yin, J G

2017-03-01

In this study, an inexact multistage stochastic mixed-integer programming (IMSMP) method was developed for supporting regional-scale energy system planning (EPS) associated with multiple uncertainties presented as discrete intervals, probability distributions and their combinations. An IMSMP-based energy system planning (IMSMP-ESP) model was formulated for Qingdao to demonstrate its applicability. Solutions which can provide optimal patterns of energy resources generation, conversion, transmission, allocation and facility capacity expansion schemes have been obtained. The results can help local decision makers generate cost-effective energy system management schemes and gain a comprehensive tradeoff between economic objectives and environmental requirements. Moreover, taking the CO 2 emissions scenarios mentioned in Part I into consideration, the anti-driving effect of carbon emissions on energy structure adjustment was studied based on the developed model and scenario analysis. Several suggestions can be concluded from the results: (a) to ensure the smooth realization of low-carbon and sustainable development, appropriate price control and fiscal subsidy on high-cost energy resources should be considered by the decision-makers; (b) compared with coal, natural gas utilization should be strongly encouraged in order to insure that Qingdao could reach the carbon discharges peak value in 2020; (c) to guarantee Qingdao's power supply security in the future, the construction of new power plants should be emphasised instead of enhancing the transmission capacity of grid infrastructure. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Cooperative Drought Adaptation: Integrating Infrastructure Development, Conservation, and Water Transfers into Adaptive Policy Pathways

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zeff, H. B.; Characklis, G. W.; Reed, P. M.; Herman, J. D.

2015-12-01

Water supply policies that integrate portfolios of short-term management decisions with long-term infrastructure development enable utilities to adapt to a range of future scenarios. An effective mix of short-term management actions can augment existing infrastructure, potentially forestalling new development. Likewise, coordinated expansion of infrastructure such as regional interconnections and shared treatment capacity can increase the effectiveness of some management actions like water transfers. Highly adaptable decision pathways that mix long-term infrastructure options and short-term management actions require decision triggers capable of incorporating the impact of these time-evolving decisions on growing water supply needs. Here, we adapt risk-based triggers to sequence a set of potential infrastructure options in combination with utility-specific conservation actions and inter-utility water transfers. Individual infrastructure pathways can be augmented with conservation or water transfers to reduce the cost of meeting utility objectives, but they can also include cooperatively developed, shared infrastructure that expands regional capacity to transfer water. This analysis explores the role of cooperation among four water utilities in the 'Research Triangle' region of North Carolina by formulating three distinct categories of adaptive policy pathways: independent action (utility-specific conservation and supply infrastructure only), weak cooperation (utility-specific conservation and infrastructure development with regional transfers), and strong cooperation (utility specific conservation and jointly developed of regional infrastructure that supports transfers). Results suggest that strong cooperation aids the utilities in meeting their individual objections at substantially lower costs and with fewer irreversible infrastructure options.

Compromise-based Robust Prioritization of Climate Change Adaptation Strategies for Watershed Management

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kim, Y.; Chung, E. S.

2014-12-01

This study suggests a robust prioritization framework for climate change adaptation strategies under multiple climate change scenarios with a case study of selecting sites for reusing treated wastewater (TWW) in a Korean urban watershed. The framework utilizes various multi-criteria decision making techniques, including the VIKOR method and the Shannon entropy-based weights. In this case study, the sustainability of TWW use is quantified with indicator-based approaches with the DPSIR framework, which considers both hydro-environmental and socio-economic aspects of the watershed management. Under the various climate change scenarios, the hydro-environmental responses to reusing TWW in potential alternative sub-watersheds are determined using the Hydrologic Simulation Program in Fortran (HSPF). The socio-economic indicators are obtained from the statistical databases. Sustainability scores for multiple scenarios are estimated individually and then integrated with the proposed approach. At last, the suggested framework allows us to prioritize adaptation strategies in a robust manner with varying levels of compromise between utility-based and regret-based strategies.

A Passive System Reliability Analysis for a Station Blackout

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Brunett, Acacia; Bucknor, Matthew; Grabaskas, David

2015-05-03

The latest iterations of advanced reactor designs have included increased reliance on passive safety systems to maintain plant integrity during unplanned sequences. While these systems are advantageous in reducing the reliance on human intervention and availability of power, the phenomenological foundations on which these systems are built require a novel approach to a reliability assessment. Passive systems possess the unique ability to fail functionally without failing physically, a result of their explicit dependency on existing boundary conditions that drive their operating mode and capacity. Argonne National Laboratory is performing ongoing analyses that demonstrate various methodologies for the characterization of passivemore » system reliability within a probabilistic framework. Two reliability analysis techniques are utilized in this work. The first approach, the Reliability Method for Passive Systems, provides a mechanistic technique employing deterministic models and conventional static event trees. The second approach, a simulation-based technique, utilizes discrete dynamic event trees to treat time- dependent phenomena during scenario evolution. For this demonstration analysis, both reliability assessment techniques are used to analyze an extended station blackout in a pool-type sodium fast reactor (SFR) coupled with a reactor cavity cooling system (RCCS). This work demonstrates the entire process of a passive system reliability analysis, including identification of important parameters and failure metrics, treatment of uncertainties and analysis of results.« less

SunShot 2030 for Photovoltaics (PV): Envisioning a Low-cost PV Future

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Cole, Wesley J.; Frew, Bethany A.; Gagnon, Pieter J.

In this report we summarize the implications, impacts, and deployment potential of reaching the SunShot 2030 targets for the electricity system in the contiguous United States. We model 25 scenarios of the U.S. power sector using the Regional Energy Deployment Systems (ReEDS) and Distributed Generation (dGen) capacity expansion models. The scenarios cover a wide range of sensitivities to capture future uncertainties relating to fuel prices, retirements, renewable energy capital costs, and load growth. We give special attention to the potential for storage costs to also rapidly decline due to its large synergies with low-cost solar. The ReEDS and dGen modelsmore » project utility- and distributed-scale power sector evolution, respectively, for the United States. Both models have been designed with special emphasis on capturing the unique traits of renewable energy, including variability and grid integration requirements. Across the suite of scenarios modeled, we find that reaching the SunShot 2030 target has the potential to lead to significant capacity additions of PV in the United States. By 2050, PV penetration levels are projected to reach 28-46 percent of total generation. If storage also sees significant reductions in cost, then the 2050 solar penetration levels could reach 41-64 percent. PV deployment is projected to occur in all of the lower 48 states, though the specific deployment level is scenario dependent. The growth in PV is projected to be dominated by utility-scale systems, but the actual mix between utility and distributed systems could ultimately vary depending on how policies, system costs, and rate structures evolve.« less

Physical Therapy Utilization in Intensive Care Units: Results from a National Survey

PubMed Central

Hodgin, Katherine E.; Nordon-Craft, Amy; McFann, Kim K.; Mealer, Meredith L.; Moss, Marc

2009-01-01

Objective Patients who survive admission to the intensive care unit (ICU) commonly complain of fatigue, weakness, and poor functional status. This study sought to determine the utilization of inpatient physical therapy for patients recovering from critical illness. Design Surveys were mailed to 984 physical therapists from across the United States. Each survey included questions concerning staffing and availability of physical therapists for ICU patients, and the utilization of physical therapy (PT) for six patient scenarios requiring ICU admission and mechanical ventilation. Main Results Overall 482 physical therapists completed their survey. The majority of hospitals (89%) at which the physical therapists were employed require a physician consultation to initiate PT for ICU patients. Established hospital criteria for the initiation of PT in the ICU were present at only 10% of the hospitals. Community hospitals were more likely to routinely provide PT on weekends compared to academic hospitals (p=0.03). The likelihood of routine PT involvement varied significantly with the clinical scenario (highest 87% status post cerebrovascular accident, lowest 64% chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, p<0.001). The most common types of PT that would be performed on these critically ill patients were functional mobility retraining and therapeutic exercise. The type of PT identified by the physical therapists as having the most positive impact also significantly varied according to the clinical scenario (p<0.001). Conclusions PT is commonly administered to ICU patients during the recovery from critical illness in the United States. However the frequency and type of PT significantly varies based on the type of hospital and the clinical scenario. PMID:19114903

Regional demand forecasting and simulation model: user's manual. Task 4, final report

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Parhizgari, A M

1978-09-25

The Department of Energy's Regional Demand Forecasting Model (RDFOR) is an econometric and simulation system designed to estimate annual fuel-sector-region specific consumption of energy for the US. Its purposes are to (1) provide the demand side of the Project Independence Evaluation System (PIES), (2) enhance our empirical insights into the structure of US energy demand, and (3) assist policymakers in their decisions on and formulations of various energy policies and/or scenarios. This report provides a self-contained user's manual for interpreting, utilizing, and implementing RDFOR simulation software packages. Chapters I and II present the theoretical structure and the simulation of RDFOR,more » respectively. Chapter III describes several potential scenarios which are (or have been) utilized in the RDFOR simulations. Chapter IV presents an overview of the complete software package utilized in simulation. Chapter V provides the detailed explanation and documentation of this package. The last chapter describes step-by-step implementation of the simulation package using the two scenarios detailed in Chapter III. The RDFOR model contains 14 fuels: gasoline, electricity, natural gas, distillate and residual fuels, liquid gases, jet fuel, coal, oil, petroleum products, asphalt, petroleum coke, metallurgical coal, and total fuels, spread over residential, commercial, industrial, and transportation sectors.« less

Security Analysis of Selected AMI Failure Scenarios Using Agent Based Game Theoretic Simulation

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Abercrombie, Robert K; Schlicher, Bob G; Sheldon, Frederick T

Information security analysis can be performed using game theory implemented in dynamic Agent Based Game Theoretic (ABGT) simulations. Such simulations can be verified with the results from game theory analysis and further used to explore larger scale, real world scenarios involving multiple attackers, defenders, and information assets. We concentrated our analysis on the Advanced Metering Infrastructure (AMI) functional domain which the National Electric Sector Cyber security Organization Resource (NESCOR) working group has currently documented 29 failure scenarios. The strategy for the game was developed by analyzing five electric sector representative failure scenarios contained in the AMI functional domain. From thesemore » five selected scenarios, we characterize them into three specific threat categories affecting confidentiality, integrity and availability (CIA). The analysis using our ABGT simulation demonstrates how to model the AMI functional domain using a set of rationalized game theoretic rules decomposed from the failure scenarios in terms of how those scenarios might impact the AMI network with respect to CIA.« less

From scenarios to domain models: processes and representations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Haddock, Gail; Harbison, Karan

1994-03-01

The domain specific software architectures (DSSA) community has defined a philosophy for the development of complex systems. This philosophy improves productivity and efficiency by increasing the user's role in the definition of requirements, increasing the systems engineer's role in the reuse of components, and decreasing the software engineer's role to the development of new components and component modifications only. The scenario-based engineering process (SEP), the first instantiation of the DSSA philosophy, has been adopted by the next generation controller project. It is also the chosen methodology of the trauma care information management system project, and the surrogate semi-autonomous vehicle project. SEP uses scenarios from the user to create domain models and define the system's requirements. Domain knowledge is obtained from a variety of sources including experts, documents, and videos. This knowledge is analyzed using three techniques: scenario analysis, task analysis, and object-oriented analysis. Scenario analysis results in formal representations of selected scenarios. Task analysis of the scenario representations results in descriptions of tasks necessary for object-oriented analysis and also subtasks necessary for functional system analysis. Object-oriented analysis of task descriptions produces domain models and system requirements. This paper examines the representations that support the DSSA philosophy, including reference requirements, reference architectures, and domain models. The processes used to create and use the representations are explained through use of the scenario-based engineering process. Selected examples are taken from the next generation controller project.

Cargo Logistics Airlift Systems Study (CLASS). Volume 5: Summary

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Burby, R. J.; Kuhlman, W. H.

1980-01-01

Findings and conclusions derived during the study of freighter aircraft requirements to the year 2008 are summarized. These results represent the stepping off point for the much needed coordinated planning efforts by government agencies, the airlines, the users, and the aircraft manufacturers. The methodology utilized in the investigations is shown. The analysis of the current system encompassed evaluations of the past and current cargo markets and on sight surveys of airport and cargo terminals. The findings that resulted provided the basis for formulating the case study procedures, developing the future scenario, and developing the future cargo market demand.

Characterizing uncertain sea-level rise projections to support investment decisions.

PubMed

Sriver, Ryan L; Lempert, Robert J; Wikman-Svahn, Per; Keller, Klaus

2018-01-01

Many institutions worldwide are considering how to include uncertainty about future changes in sea-levels and storm surges into their investment decisions regarding large capital infrastructures. Here we examine how to characterize deeply uncertain climate change projections to support such decisions using Robust Decision Making analysis. We address questions regarding how to confront the potential for future changes in low probability but large impact flooding events due to changes in sea-levels and storm surges. Such extreme events can affect investments in infrastructure but have proved difficult to consider in such decisions because of the deep uncertainty surrounding them. This study utilizes Robust Decision Making methods to address two questions applied to investment decisions at the Port of Los Angeles: (1) Under what future conditions would a Port of Los Angeles decision to harden its facilities against extreme flood scenarios at the next upgrade pass a cost-benefit test, and (2) Do sea-level rise projections and other information suggest such conditions are sufficiently likely to justify such an investment? We also compare and contrast the Robust Decision Making methods with a full probabilistic analysis. These two analysis frameworks result in similar investment recommendations for different idealized future sea-level projections, but provide different information to decision makers and envision different types of engagement with stakeholders. In particular, the full probabilistic analysis begins by aggregating the best scientific information into a single set of joint probability distributions, while the Robust Decision Making analysis identifies scenarios where a decision to invest in near-term response to extreme sea-level rise passes a cost-benefit test, and then assembles scientific information of differing levels of confidence to help decision makers judge whether or not these scenarios are sufficiently likely to justify making such investments. Results highlight the highly-localized and context dependent nature of applying Robust Decision Making methods to inform investment decisions.

Characterizing uncertain sea-level rise projections to support investment decisions

PubMed Central

Lempert, Robert J.; Wikman-Svahn, Per; Keller, Klaus

2018-01-01

Many institutions worldwide are considering how to include uncertainty about future changes in sea-levels and storm surges into their investment decisions regarding large capital infrastructures. Here we examine how to characterize deeply uncertain climate change projections to support such decisions using Robust Decision Making analysis. We address questions regarding how to confront the potential for future changes in low probability but large impact flooding events due to changes in sea-levels and storm surges. Such extreme events can affect investments in infrastructure but have proved difficult to consider in such decisions because of the deep uncertainty surrounding them. This study utilizes Robust Decision Making methods to address two questions applied to investment decisions at the Port of Los Angeles: (1) Under what future conditions would a Port of Los Angeles decision to harden its facilities against extreme flood scenarios at the next upgrade pass a cost-benefit test, and (2) Do sea-level rise projections and other information suggest such conditions are sufficiently likely to justify such an investment? We also compare and contrast the Robust Decision Making methods with a full probabilistic analysis. These two analysis frameworks result in similar investment recommendations for different idealized future sea-level projections, but provide different information to decision makers and envision different types of engagement with stakeholders. In particular, the full probabilistic analysis begins by aggregating the best scientific information into a single set of joint probability distributions, while the Robust Decision Making analysis identifies scenarios where a decision to invest in near-term response to extreme sea-level rise passes a cost-benefit test, and then assembles scientific information of differing levels of confidence to help decision makers judge whether or not these scenarios are sufficiently likely to justify making such investments. Results highlight the highly-localized and context dependent nature of applying Robust Decision Making methods to inform investment decisions. PMID:29414978

Analyzing the impact of price subsidy on rice self-sufficiency level in Malaysia: A preliminary finding

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rahim, Farah Hanim Abdul; Abidin, Norhaslinda Zainal; Hawari, Nurul Nazihah

2017-11-01

The Malaysian government had targeted for the rice industry in the country to achieve 100% rice self-sufficiency where Malaysia's rice self-sufficiency level (SSL) is currently at 65% to 75%. Thus, the government had implemented few policies to increase the rice production in Malaysia in order to meet the growing demand of rice. In this paper, the effect of price support on the rice production system in Malaysia is investigated. This study utilizes the system dynamics approach of the rice production system in Malaysia where the complexity of the factor is interrelated and changed dynamically through time. Scenario analysis was conducted using system dynamics model by making changes on the price subsidy to see its effect on the rice production and rice SSL. The system dynamics model provides a framework for understanding the effect of price subsidy on the rice self-sufficiency level. The scenario analysis of the model shows that a 50% increase in the price subsidy leads to a substantial increase in demand as the rice price drops. Accordingly, the local production increases by 15%. However, the SSL slightly decreases as the local production is insufficient to meet the large demand.

Rituximab as first choice for patients with refractory rheumatoid arthritis: cost-effectiveness analysis in Iran based on a systematic review and meta-analysis.

PubMed

Ahmadiani, Saeed; Nikfar, Shekoufeh; Karimi, Somayeh; Jamshidi, Ahmad Reza; Akbari-Sari, Ali; Kebriaeezadeh, Abbas

2016-09-01

The aim of this study was to evaluate the effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of using rituximab as first line for patients with refractory rheumatoid arthritis in comparison with continuing conventional DMARDs, from a perspective of health service governors. A systematic review was implemented through searching PubMed, Scopus and Cochrane Library. Quality assessment was performed by Jadad scale. After meta-analysis of ACR index results, QALY gain was calculated through mapping ACR index to HAQ and utility index. To measure the direct and indirect medical costs, a set of interviews with patients were applied. Thirty-two patients were selected from three referral rheumatology clinics in Tehran with definite diagnosis of refractory rheumatoid arthritis in the year before and treatment regimen of either rituximab or DMARDs within last year. Incremental cost-effectiveness ratio was calculated for base case and scenario of generic rituximab. Threefold of GDP per capita was considered as threshold of cost-effectiveness. Four studies were eligible to be considered in this systematic review. Total risk differences of 0.3 for achieving ACR20 criteria, 0.21 for ACR50 and 0.1 for ACR70 were calculated. Also mean of total medical costs of patients for 24 weeks were $3985 in rituximab group and $932 for DMARDs group. Thus, the incremental cost per QALY ratio will be $45,900-$70,223 in base case and $32,386-$49,550 for generic scenario. Rituximab for treatment of patients with refractory rheumatoid arthritis is not considered as cost-effective in Iran in none of the scenarios.

Optimization of Multiple Related Negotiation through Multi-Negotiation Network

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ren, Fenghui; Zhang, Minjie; Miao, Chunyan; Shen, Zhiqi

In this paper, a Multi-Negotiation Network (MNN) and a Multi- Negotiation Influence Diagram (MNID) are proposed to optimally handle Multiple Related Negotiations (MRN) in a multi-agent system. Most popular, state-of-the-art approaches perform MRN sequentially. However, a sequential procedure may not optimally execute MRN in terms of maximizing the global outcome, and may even lead to unnecessary losses in some situations. The motivation of this research is to use a MNN to handle MRN concurrently so as to maximize the expected utility of MRN. Firstly, both the joint success rate and the joint utility by considering all related negotiations are dynamically calculated based on a MNN. Secondly, by employing a MNID, an agent's possible decision on each related negotiation is reflected by the value of expected utility. Lastly, through comparing expected utilities between all possible policies to conduct MRN, an optimal policy is generated to optimize the global outcome of MRN. The experimental results indicate that the proposed approach can improve the global outcome of MRN in a successful end scenario, and avoid unnecessary losses in an unsuccessful end scenario.

Plant growth and mineral recycle trade-offs in different scenarios for a CELSS. [Closed Ecological Life Support System

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Ballou, E. V.; Wydeven, T.; Spitze, L. A.

1982-01-01

Data for hydroponic plant growth in a manned system test is combined with nutritional recommendations to suport trade-off calculations for closed and partially closed life support system scenarios. Published data are used as guidelines for the masses of mineral nutrients needed for higher plant production. The results of calculations based on various scenarios are presented for various combinations of plant growth chamber utilization and fraction of mineral recycle. Estimates are made of the masses of material needed to meet human nutritional requirements in the various scenarios. It appears that food production from a plant growth chamber with mineral recycle is favorable to reduction of the total launch weight in missions exceeding 3 years.

Forecast of Future Aviation Fuels. Part 1: Scenarios

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

English, J. M.; Liu, C. Y.; Smith, J. L.; Yin, A. K. K.; Pan, G. A.; Ayati, M. B.; Gyamfi, M.; Arabzadah, M. R.

1978-01-01

A preliminary set of scenarios is described for depicting the air transport industry as it grows and changes, up to the year 2025. This provides the background for predicting the needs for future aviation fuels to meet the requirements of the industry as new basic sources, such as oil shale and coal, which are utilized to supplement petroleum. Five scenarios are written to encompass a range of futures from a serious resource-constrained economy to a continuous and optimistic economic growth. A unique feature is the choice of one immediate range scenario which is based on a serious interruption of economic growth occasioned by an energy shortfall. This is presumed to occur due to lags in starting a synfuels program.

Impact of Spatial Scales on the Intercomparison of Climate Scenarios

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Luo, Wei; Steptoe, Michael; Chang, Zheng

2017-01-01

Scenario analysis has been widely applied in climate science to understand the impact of climate change on the future human environment, but intercomparison and similarity analysis of different climate scenarios based on multiple simulation runs remain challenging. Although spatial heterogeneity plays a key role in modeling climate and human systems, little research has been performed to understand the impact of spatial variations and scales on similarity analysis of climate scenarios. To address this issue, the authors developed a geovisual analytics framework that lets users perform similarity analysis of climate scenarios from the Global Change Assessment Model (GCAM) using a hierarchicalmore » clustering approach.« less

Mixed oxidizer hybrid propulsion system optimization under uncertainty using applied response surface methodology and Monte Carlo simulation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Whitehead, James Joshua

The analysis documented herein provides an integrated approach for the conduct of optimization under uncertainty (OUU) using Monte Carlo Simulation (MCS) techniques coupled with response surface-based methods for characterization of mixture-dependent variables. This novel methodology provides an innovative means of conducting optimization studies under uncertainty in propulsion system design. Analytic inputs are based upon empirical regression rate information obtained from design of experiments (DOE) mixture studies utilizing a mixed oxidizer hybrid rocket concept. Hybrid fuel regression rate was selected as the target response variable for optimization under uncertainty, with maximization of regression rate chosen as the driving objective. Characteristic operational conditions and propellant mixture compositions from experimental efforts conducted during previous foundational work were combined with elemental uncertainty estimates as input variables. Response surfaces for mixture-dependent variables and their associated uncertainty levels were developed using quadratic response equations incorporating single and two-factor interactions. These analysis inputs, response surface equations and associated uncertainty contributions were applied to a probabilistic MCS to develop dispersed regression rates as a function of operational and mixture input conditions within design space. Illustrative case scenarios were developed and assessed using this analytic approach including fully and partially constrained operational condition sets over all of design mixture space. In addition, optimization sets were performed across an operationally representative region in operational space and across all investigated mixture combinations. These scenarios were selected as representative examples relevant to propulsion system optimization, particularly for hybrid and solid rocket platforms. Ternary diagrams, including contour and surface plots, were developed and utilized to aid in visualization. The concept of Expanded-Durov diagrams was also adopted and adapted to this study to aid in visualization of uncertainty bounds. Regions of maximum regression rate and associated uncertainties were determined for each set of case scenarios. Application of response surface methodology coupled with probabilistic-based MCS allowed for flexible and comprehensive interrogation of mixture and operating design space during optimization cases. Analyses were also conducted to assess sensitivity of uncertainty to variations in key elemental uncertainty estimates. The methodology developed during this research provides an innovative optimization tool for future propulsion design efforts.

Variability of Short-term Precipitation and Runoff in Small Czech Drainage Basins

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kavka, Petr; Strouhal, Luděk; Landa, Martin; Neuman, Martin; Kožant, Petr; Muller, Miloslav

2016-04-01

The aim of this contribution is to introduce the recently started three year's project named "Variability of Short-term Precipitation and Runoff in Small Czech Drainage Basins and its Influence on Water Resources Management". Its main goal is to elaborate a methodology and online utility for deriving short-term design precipitation series, which could be utilized by a broad community of scientists, state administration as well as design planners. The outcomes of the project will especially be helpful in modelling hydrological or soil erosion problems when designing common measures for promoting water retention or landscape drainage systems in or out of the scope of Landscape consolidation projects. The precipitation scenarios will be derived from 10 years of observed data from point gauging stations and radar data. The analysis is focused on events' return period, rainfall total amount, internal intensity distribution and spatial distribution over the area of Czech Republic. The methodology will account for the choice of the simulation model. Several representatives of practically oriented models will be tested for the output sensitivity to selected precipitation scenario comparing to variability connected with other inputs uncertainty. The variability of the outputs will also be assessed in the context of economic impacts in design of landscape water structures or mitigation measures. The research was supported by the grant QJ1520265 of the Czech Ministry of Agriculture, using data provided by the Czech Hydrometeorological Institute.

A case study predicting environmental impacts of urban transport planning in China.

PubMed

Chen, Chong; Shao, Li-guo; Xu, Ling; Shang, Jin-cheng

2009-10-01

Predicting environmental impacts is essential when performing an environmental assessment on urban transport planning. System dynamics (SD) is usually used to solve complex nonlinear problems. In this study, we utilized system dynamics (SD) to evaluate the environmental impacts associated with urban transport planning in Jilin City, China with respect to the local economy, society, transport, the environment and resources. To accomplish this, we generated simulation models comprising interrelated subsystems designed to utilize changes in the economy, society, road construction, changes in the number of vehicles, the capacity of the road network capacity, nitrogen oxides emission, traffic noise, land used for road construction and fuel consumption associated with traffic to estimate dynamic trends in the environmental impacts associated with Jilin's transport planning. Two simulation scenarios were then analyzed comparatively. The results of this study indicated that implementation of Jilin transport planning would improve the current urban traffic conditions and boost the local economy and development while benefiting the environment in Jilin City. In addition, comparative analysis of the two scenarios provided additional information that can be used to aid in scientific decision-making regarding which aspects of the transport planning to implement in Jilin City. This study demonstrates that our application of the SD method, which is referred to as the Strategic Environmental Assessment (SEA), is feasible for use in urban transport planning.

SOT: A rapid prototype using TAE windows

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Stephens, Mark; Eike, David; Harris, Elfrieda; Miller, Dana

1986-01-01

The development of the window interface extension feature of the Transportable Applications Executive (TAE) is discussed. This feature is being used to prototype a space station payload interface in order to demonstrate and assess the benefits of using windows on a bit mapped display and also to convey the concept of telescience, the control and operation of space station payloads from remote sites. The prototype version of the TAE with windows operates on a DEC VAXstation 100. This workstation has a high resolution 19 inch bit mapped display, a keyboard and a three-button mouse. The VAXstation 100 is not a stand-alone workstation, but is controlled by software executing on a VAX/8600. A short scenario was developed utilizing the Solar Optical Telescope (SOT) as an example payload. In the scenario the end-user station includes the VAXstation 100 plus an image analysis terminal used to display the CCD images. The layout and use of the prototype elements, i.e., the root menu, payload status window, and target acquisition menu is described.

Assessing Hydrologic Impacts of Future Land Cover Change Scenarios in the South Platte River Basin (CO, WY, & NE) and the San Pedro River Basin (U.S./Mexico).

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Barlow, J. E.; Burns, I. S.; Guertin, D. P.; Kepner, W. G.; Goodrich, D. C.

2016-12-01

Long-term land-use and land cover change and their associated impacts pose critical challenges to sustaining vital hydrological ecosystem services for future generations. In this study, a methodology to characterize hydrologic impacts from future urban growth through time that was developed and applied on the San Pedro River Basin was expanded and utilized on the South Platte River Basin as well. Future urban growth is represented by housing density maps generated in decadal intervals from 2010 to 2100, produced by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) Integrated Climate and Land-Use Scenarios (ICLUS) project. ICLUS developed future housing density maps by adapting the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) social, economic, and demographic storylines to the conterminous United States. To characterize hydrologic impacts from future growth, the housing density maps were reclassified to National Land Cover Database (NLCD) 2006 land cover classes and used to parameterize the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) using the Automated Geospatial Watershed Assessment (AGWA) tool. The objectives of this project were to 1) develop and implement a methodology for adapting the ICLUS data for use in AGWA as an approach to evaluate impacts of development on water-quantity and -quality, 2) present, evaluate, and compare results from scenarios for watersheds in two different geographic and climatic regions, 3) determine watershed specific implications of this type of future land cover change analysis.

Applying Qualitative Hazard Analysis to Support Quantitative Safety Analysis for Proposed Reduced Wake Separation Conops

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Shortle, John F.; Allocco, Michael

2005-01-01

This paper describes a scenario-driven hazard analysis process to identify, eliminate, and control safety-related risks. Within this process, we develop selective criteria to determine the applicability of applying engineering modeling to hypothesized hazard scenarios. This provides a basis for evaluating and prioritizing the scenarios as candidates for further quantitative analysis. We have applied this methodology to proposed concepts of operations for reduced wake separation for closely spaced parallel runways. For arrivals, the process identified 43 core hazard scenarios. Of these, we classified 12 as appropriate for further quantitative modeling, 24 that should be mitigated through controls, recommendations, and / or procedures (that is, scenarios not appropriate for quantitative modeling), and 7 that have the lowest priority for further analysis.

Quasi-Experiment Study on Effectiveness Evaluation of Health Communication Strategies

PubMed Central

2016-01-01

This experimental study examined differences in doctor-patient relationships according to the health communication strategies during cases of medical malpractices occurred at primary medical institution. A total of 116 subjects aged in their 20s-50s was sampled. The first medical malpractice scenario chosen was the medical malpractice case most frequently registered at the Korean Medical Association Mutual Aid and the second scenario was associated with materials and devices as the cause of malpractice. Four types of crisis communication strategy messages were utilized, consisting of denial, denial + ingratiation, apology, and apology + ingratiation. Subjects were classified into four research groups by crisis communication strategy to measure levels of trust, control mutuality, commitment, and satisfaction, before and after the occurrence of medical malpractice and application of communication strategies. The findings of this study revealed that the apology strategy, compared with the denial strategy, showed a smaller difference before and after the application of communication strategies in all variables of trust (F = 8.080, F = 5.768), control mutuality (F = 8.824, F = 9.081), commitment (F = 9.815, F = 8.301), and satisfaction (F = 8.723, F = 5.638). Further, a significant interaction effect was shown between variables. The apology strategy, compared with the denial strategy, was effective in the improvement of doctor-patient relationships in both Scenarios I and II. For Scenario I, the apology strategy without ingratiation boosted commitment and satisfaction, but for Scenario II, utilizing the apology strategy with ingratiation boosted the effectiveness of trust and commitment. PMID:27365998

Quasi-Experiment Study on Effectiveness Evaluation of Health Communication Strategies.

PubMed

Song, Dae Jong; Choi, Jae Wook; Kim, Kyunghee; Kim, Min Soo; Moon, Jiwon Monica

2016-07-01

This experimental study examined differences in doctor-patient relationships according to the health communication strategies during cases of medical malpractices occurred at primary medical institution. A total of 116 subjects aged in their 20s-50s was sampled. The first medical malpractice scenario chosen was the medical malpractice case most frequently registered at the Korean Medical Association Mutual Aid and the second scenario was associated with materials and devices as the cause of malpractice. Four types of crisis communication strategy messages were utilized, consisting of denial, denial + ingratiation, apology, and apology + ingratiation. Subjects were classified into four research groups by crisis communication strategy to measure levels of trust, control mutuality, commitment, and satisfaction, before and after the occurrence of medical malpractice and application of communication strategies. The findings of this study revealed that the apology strategy, compared with the denial strategy, showed a smaller difference before and after the application of communication strategies in all variables of trust (F = 8.080, F = 5.768), control mutuality (F = 8.824, F = 9.081), commitment (F = 9.815, F = 8.301), and satisfaction (F = 8.723, F = 5.638). Further, a significant interaction effect was shown between variables. The apology strategy, compared with the denial strategy, was effective in the improvement of doctor-patient relationships in both Scenarios I and II. For Scenario I, the apology strategy without ingratiation boosted commitment and satisfaction, but for Scenario II, utilizing the apology strategy with ingratiation boosted the effectiveness of trust and commitment.

Techno-environmental assessment of the green biorefinery concept: Combining process simulation and life cycle assessment at an early design stage.

PubMed

Corona, Andrea; Ambye-Jensen, Morten; Vega, Giovanna Croxatto; Hauschild, Michael Zwicky; Birkved, Morten

2018-09-01

The Green biorefinery (GBR) is a biorefinery concept that converts fresh biomass into value-added products. The present study combines a Process Flowsheet Simulation (PFS) and Life Cycle Assessment (LCA) to evaluate the technical and environmental performance of different GBR configurations and the cascading utilization of the GBR output. The GBR configurations considered in this study, test alternatives in the three main steps of green-biorefining: fractionation, precipitation, and protein separation. The different cascade utilization alternatives analyse different options for press-pulp utilization, and the LCA results show that the environmental profile of the GBR is highly affected by the utilization of the press-pulp and thus by the choice of conventional product replaced by the press-pulp. Furthermore, scenario analysis of different GBR configurations shows that higher benefits can be achieved by increasing product yields rather than lowering energy consumption. Green biorefining is shown to be an interesting biorefining concept, especially in a Danish context. Biorefining of green biomass is technically feasible and can bring environmental savings, when compared to conventional production methods. However, the savings will be determined by the processing involved in each conversion stage and on the cascade utilization of the different platform products. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

NASA in-house Commercially Developed Space Facility (CDSF) study report. Volume 1: Concept configuration definition

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Deryder, L. J.; Chiger, H. D.; Deryder, D. D.; Detweiler, K. N.; Dupree, R. L.; Gillespie, V. P.; Hall, J. B.; Heck, M. L.; Herrick, D. C.; Katzberg, S. J.

1989-01-01

The results of a NASA in-house team effort to develop a concept definition for a Commercially Developed Space Facility (CDSF) are presented. Science mission utilization definition scenarios are documented, the conceptual configuration definition system performance parameters qualified, benchmark operational scenarios developed, space shuttle interface descriptions provided, and development schedule activity was assessed with respect to the establishment of a proposed launch date.

Comparison: Mediation Solutions of WSMOLX and WebML/WebRatio

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zaremba, Maciej; Zaharia, Raluca; Turati, Andrea; Brambilla, Marco; Vitvar, Tomas; Ceri, Stefano

In this chapter we compare the WSMO/WSML/WSMX andWebML/WebRatio approaches to the SWS-Challenge workshop mediation scenario in terms of the utilized underlying technologies and delivered solutions. In the mediation scenario one partner uses Roset-taNet to define its B2B protocol while the other one operates on a proprietary solution. Both teams shown how these partners could be semantically integrated.

Acoustic Characterization of Soil

DTIC Science & Technology

1996-03-28

modified SAR imaging algorithm. Page 26 Final Report In the acoustic subsurface imaging scenario, the "object" to be imaged (i.e., cultural artifacts... subsurface imaging scenario. To combat this potential difficulty we can utilize a new SAR imaging algorithm (Lee et al., 1996) derived from a geophysics...essentially a transmit plane wave. This is a cost-effective means to evaluate the feasibility of subsurface imaging . A more complete (and costly

Water mass mixing: The dominant control on the zinc distribution in the North Atlantic Ocean

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Roshan, Saeed; Wu, Jingfeng

2015-07-01

Dissolved zinc (dZn) concentration was determined in the North Atlantic during the U.S. GEOTRACES 2010 and 2011 cruise (GOETRACES GA03). A relatively poor linear correlation (R2 = 0.756) was observed between dZn and silicic acid (Si), the slope of which was 0.0577 nM/µmol/kg. We attribute the relatively poor dZn-Si correlation to the following processes: (a) differential regeneration of zinc relative to silicic acid, (b) mixing of multiple water masses that have different Zn/Si, and (c) zinc sources such as sedimentary or hydrothermal. To quantitatively distinguish these possibilities, we use the results of Optimum Multi-Parameter Water Mass Analysis by Jenkins et al. (2015) to model the zinc distribution below 500 m. We hypothesized two scenarios: conservative mixing and regenerative mixing. The first scenario (conservative) could be modeled to results in a correlation with observations with a R2 = 0.846. In the second scenario, we took a Si-related regeneration into account, which could model the observations with a R2 = 0.867. Through this regenerative mixing scenario, we estimated a Zn/Si = 0.0548 nM/µmol/kg that may be more realistic than linear regression slope due to accounting for process b. However, this did not improve the model substantially (R2 = 0.867 versus0.846), which may indicate the insignificant effect of remineralization on the zinc distribution in this region. The relative weakness in the model-observation correlation (R2~0.85 for both scenarios) implies that processes (a) and (c) may be plausible. Furthermore, dZn in the upper 500 m exhibited a very poor correlation with apparent oxygen utilization, suggesting a minimal role for the organic matter-associated remineralization process.

Health state utilities: a framework for studying the gap between the imagined and the real.

PubMed

Stiggelbout, Anne M; de Vogel-Voogt, Elsbeth

2008-01-01

Health state utilities play an important role in decision analysis and cost-utility analysis. The question whose utilities to use at various levels of health-care decision-making has been subject of considerable debate. The observation that patients often value their own health, but also other health states, higher than members of the general public raises the question what underlies such differences? Is it an artifact of the valuation methods? Is it adaptation versus poor anticipated adaptation? This article describes a framework for the understanding and study of potential mechanisms that play a role in health state valuation. It aims at connecting research from within different fields so that cross-fertilization of ideas may occur. The framework is based on stimulus response models from social judgment theory. For each phase, from stimulus, through information interpretation and integration, to judgment, and, finally, to response, we provide evidence of factors and processes that may lead to different utilities in patients and healthy subjects. Examples of factors and processes described are the lack of scope of scenarios in the stimulus phase, and appraisal processes and framing effects in the information interpretation phase. Factors that play a role in the judgment phase are, for example, heuristics and biases, adaptation, and comparison processes. Some mechanisms related to the response phase are end aversion bias, probability distortion, and noncompensatory decision-making. The framework serves to explain many of the differences in valuations between respondent groups. We discuss some of the findings as they relate to the field of response shift research. We propose issues for discussion in the field, and suggestions for improvement of the process of utility assessment.

Conflicts in Coalitions: A Stability Analysis of Robust Multi-City Regional Water Supply Portfolios

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gold, D.; Trindade, B. C.; Reed, P. M.; Characklis, G. W.

2017-12-01

Regional cooperation among water utilities can improve the robustness of urban water supply portfolios to deeply uncertain future conditions such as those caused by climate change or population growth. Coordination mechanisms such as water transfers, coordinated demand management, and shared infrastructure, can improve the efficiency of resource allocation and delay the need for new infrastructure investments. Regionalization does however come at a cost. Regionally coordinated water supply plans may be vulnerable to any emerging instabilities in the regional coalition. If one or more regional actors does not cooperate or follow the required regional actions in a time of crisis, the overall system performance may degrade. Furthermore, when crafting regional water supply portfolios, decision makers must choose a framework for measuring the performance of regional policies based on the evaluation of the objective values for each individual actor. Regional evaluations may inherently favor one actor's interests over those of another. This work focuses on four interconnected water utilities in the Research Triangle region of North Carolina for which robust regional water supply portfolios have previously been designed using multi-objective optimization to maximize the robustness of the worst performing utility across several objectives. This study 1) examines the sensitivity of portfolio performance to deviations from prescribed actions by individual utilities, 2) quantifies the implications of the regional formulation used to evaluate robustness for the portfolio performance of each individual utility and 3) elucidates the inherent regional tensions and conflicts that exist between utilities under this regionalization scheme through visual diagnostics of the system under simulated drought scenarios. Results of this analysis will help inform the creation of future regional water supply portfolios and provide insight into the nature of multi-actor water supply systems.

Adjacent Channel Interference Reduction for M-WiMAX TDD and WCDMA FDD Coexistence by Utilizing Beamforming in M-WiMAX TDD System

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Yupeng; Chang, Kyunghi

In this paper, we analyze the coexistence issues of M-WiMAX TDD and WCDMA FDD systems. Smart antenna techniques are applied to mitigate the performance loss induced by adjacent channel interference (ACI) in the scenarios where performance is heavily degraded. In addition, an ACI model is proposed to capture the effect of transmit beamforming at the M-WiMAX base station. Furthermore, a MCS-based throughput analysis is proposed, to jointly consider the effects of ACI, system packet error rate requirement, and the available modulation and coding schemes, which is not possible by using the conventional Shannon equation based analysis. From the results, we find that the proposed MCS-based analysis method is quite suitable to analyze the system theoretical throughput in a practical manner.

A strategic stakeholder approach for addressing further analysis requests in whole genome sequencing research.

PubMed

Thornock, Bradley Steven O

2016-01-01

Whole genome sequencing (WGS) can be a cost-effective and efficient means of diagnosis for some children, but it also raises a number of ethical concerns. One such concern is how researchers derive and communicate results from WGS, including future requests for further analysis of stored sequences. The purpose of this paper is to think about what is at stake, and for whom, in any solution that is developed to deal with such requests. To accomplish this task, this paper will utilize stakeholder theory, a common method used in business ethics. Several scenarios that connect stakeholder concerns and WGS will also posited and analyzed. This paper concludes by developing criteria composed of a series of questions that researchers can answer in order to more effectively address requests for further analysis of stored sequences.

Reliability and Probabilistic Risk Assessment - How They Play Together

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Safie, Fayssal; Stutts, Richard; Huang, Zhaofeng

2015-01-01

Since the Space Shuttle Challenger accident in 1986, NASA has extensively used probabilistic analysis methods to assess, understand, and communicate the risk of space launch vehicles. Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA), used in the nuclear industry, is one of the probabilistic analysis methods NASA utilizes to assess Loss of Mission (LOM) and Loss of Crew (LOC) risk for launch vehicles. PRA is a system scenario based risk assessment that uses a combination of fault trees, event trees, event sequence diagrams, and probability distributions to analyze the risk of a system, a process, or an activity. It is a process designed to answer three basic questions: 1) what can go wrong that would lead to loss or degraded performance (i.e., scenarios involving undesired consequences of interest), 2) how likely is it (probabilities), and 3) what is the severity of the degradation (consequences). Since the Challenger accident, PRA has been used in supporting decisions regarding safety upgrades for launch vehicles. Another area that was given a lot of emphasis at NASA after the Challenger accident is reliability engineering. Reliability engineering has been a critical design function at NASA since the early Apollo days. However, after the Challenger accident, quantitative reliability analysis and reliability predictions were given more scrutiny because of their importance in understanding failure mechanism and quantifying the probability of failure, which are key elements in resolving technical issues, performing design trades, and implementing design improvements. Although PRA and reliability are both probabilistic in nature and, in some cases, use the same tools, they are two different activities. Specifically, reliability engineering is a broad design discipline that deals with loss of function and helps understand failure mechanism and improve component and system design. PRA is a system scenario based risk assessment process intended to assess the risk scenarios that could lead to a major/top undesirable system event, and to identify those scenarios that are high-risk drivers. PRA output is critical to support risk informed decisions concerning system design. This paper describes the PRA process and the reliability engineering discipline in detail. It discusses their differences and similarities and how they work together as complementary analyses to support the design and risk assessment processes. Lessons learned, applications, and case studies in both areas are also discussed in the paper to demonstrate and explain these differences and similarities.

Greenhouse gas policy influences climate via direct effects of land-use change

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Jones, Andrew D.; Collins, William D.; Edmonds, James A.

2013-06-01

Proposed climate mitigation measures do not account for direct biophysical climate impacts of land-use change (LUC), nor do the stabilization targets modeled for the 5th Climate Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs). To examine the significance of such effects on global and regional patterns of climate change, a baseline and alternative scenario of future anthropogenic activity are simulated within the Integrated Earth System Model, which couples the Global Change Assessment Model, Global Land-use Model, and Community Earth System Model. The alternative scenario has high biofuel utilization and approximately 50% less global forest cover compared to the baseline, standardmore » RCP4.5 scenario. Both scenarios stabilize radiative forcing from atmospheric constituents at 4.5 W/m2 by 2100. Thus, differences between their climate predictions quantify the biophysical effects of LUC. Offline radiative transfer and land model simulations are also utilized to identify forcing and feedback mechanisms driving the coupled response. Boreal deforestation is found to strongly influence climate due to increased albedo coupled with a regional-scale water vapor feedback. Globally, the alternative scenario yields a 21st century warming trend that is 0.5 °C cooler than baseline, driven by a 1 W/m2 mean decrease in radiative forcing that is distributed unevenly around the globe. Some regions are cooler in the alternative scenario than in 2005. These results demonstrate that neither climate change nor actual radiative forcing are uniquely related to atmospheric forcing targets such as those found in the RCP’s, but rather depend on particulars of the socioeconomic pathways followed to meet each target.« less

DIY Solar Market Analysis Webinar Series: Community Solar Scenario Tool |

Science.gov Websites

State, Local, and Tribal Governments | NREL Webinar Series: Community Solar Scenario Tool DIY Solar Market Analysis Webinar Series: Community Solar Scenario Tool Wednesday, August 13, 2014 As part ) presented a live webinar titled, "Community Solar Scenario Tool: Planning for a fruitful solar garden

Demand side management in recycling and electricity retail pricing

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kazan, Osman

This dissertation addresses several problems from the recycling industry and electricity retail market. The first paper addresses a real-life scheduling problem faced by a national industrial recycling company. Based on their practices, a scheduling problem is defined, modeled, analyzed, and a solution is approximated efficiently. The recommended application is tested on the real-life data and randomly generated data. The scheduling improvements and the financial benefits are presented. The second problem is from electricity retail market. There are well-known patterns in daily usage in hours. These patterns change in shape and magnitude by seasons and days of the week. Generation costs are multiple times higher during the peak hours of the day. Yet most consumers purchase electricity at flat rates. This work explores analytic pricing tools to reduce peak load electricity demand for retailers. For that purpose, a nonlinear model that determines optimal hourly prices is established based on two major components: unit generation costs and consumers' utility. Both are analyzed and estimated empirically in the third paper. A pricing model is introduced to maximize the electric retailer's profit. As a result, a closed-form expression for the optimal price vector is obtained. Possible scenarios are evaluated for consumers' utility distribution. For the general case, we provide a numerical solution methodology to obtain the optimal pricing scheme. The models recommended are tested under various scenarios that consider consumer segmentation and multiple pricing policies. The recommended model reduces the peak load significantly in most cases. Several utility companies offer hourly pricing to their customers. They determine prices using historical data of unit electricity cost over time. In this dissertation we develop a nonlinear model that determines optimal hourly prices with parameter estimation. The last paper includes a regression analysis of the unit generation cost function obtained from Independent Service Operators. A consumer experiment is established to replicate the peak load behavior. As a result, consumers' utility function is estimated and optimal retail electricity prices are computed.

Budget Impact Analysis of PCSK9 Inhibitors for the Management of Adult Patients with Heterozygous Familial Hypercholesterolemia or Clinical Atherosclerotic Cardiovascular Disease.

PubMed

Mallya, Usha G; Boklage, Susan H; Koren, Andrew; Delea, Thomas E; Mullins, C Daniel

2018-01-01

The aim of this study was to assess the budget impact of introducing the proprotein convertase subtilisin/kexin type 9 inhibitors (PCSK9i) alirocumab and evolocumab to market for the treatment of adults with heterozygous familial hypercholesterolemia or clinical atherosclerotic cardiovascular (CV) disease requiring additional lowering of low-density lipoprotein cholesterol (LDL-C). A 3-year model estimated the costs of lipid-modifying therapy (LMT) and CV events to a hypothetical US health plan of 1 million members, comparing two scenarios-with and without the availability of PCSK9i as add-on therapy to statins. Proportions of patients with uncontrolled LDL-C despite receiving statins, and at risk of CV events, were estimated from real-world data. Total undiscounted annual LMT costs (2017 prices, including PCSK9i costs of $14,563.50), dispensing and healthcare costs, including the costs of CV events, were estimated for all prevalent patients in the target population, based on baseline risk factors. Maximum PCSK9i utilization of 1-5% over 3 years according to risk group (following the same pattern as current ezetimibe use), and 5-10% as a secondary scenario, were assumed. Total healthcare budget impacts per target patient (and per member) per month for years 1, 2 and 3 were $3.62($0.10), $7.22($0.20) and $10.79($0.30), respectively, assuming 1-5% maximum PCSK9i utilization, and $15.81($0.44), $31.52($0.88) and $47.12($1.31), respectively, assuming 5-10% utilization. Results were sensitive to changes in model timeframe, years to maximum PCSK9i utilization and PCSK9i costs. The budget impact of PCSK9i as add-on therapy to statins for patients with hypercholesterolemia is relatively low compared with published estimates for other specialty biologics. Drug cost rebates and discounts are likely to further reduce budget impact.

Geothermal reservoir simulation of hot sedimentary aquifer system using FEFLOW®

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nur Hidayat, Hardi; Gala Permana, Maximillian

2017-12-01

The study presents the simulation of hot sedimentary aquifer for geothermal utilization. Hot sedimentary aquifer (HSA) is a conduction-dominated hydrothermal play type utilizing deep aquifer, which is heated by near normal heat flow. One of the examples of HSA is Bavarian Molasse Basin in South Germany. This system typically uses doublet wells: an injection and production well. The simulation was run for 3650 days of simulation time. The technical feasibility and performance are analysed in regards to the extracted energy from this concept. Several parameters are compared to determine the model performance. Parameters such as reservoir characteristics, temperature information and well information are defined. Several assumptions are also defined to simplify the simulation process. The main results of the simulation are heat period budget or total extracted heat energy, and heat rate budget or heat production rate. Qualitative approaches for sensitivity analysis are conducted by using five parameters in which assigned lower and higher value scenarios.

Evaluation of a web based informatics system with data mining tools for predicting outcomes with quantitative imaging features in stroke rehabilitation clinical trials

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Ximing; Kim, Bokkyu; Park, Ji Hoon; Wang, Erik; Forsyth, Sydney; Lim, Cody; Ravi, Ragini; Karibyan, Sarkis; Sanchez, Alexander; Liu, Brent

2017-03-01

Quantitative imaging biomarkers are used widely in clinical trials for tracking and evaluation of medical interventions. Previously, we have presented a web based informatics system utilizing quantitative imaging features for predicting outcomes in stroke rehabilitation clinical trials. The system integrates imaging features extraction tools and a web-based statistical analysis tool. The tools include a generalized linear mixed model(GLMM) that can investigate potential significance and correlation based on features extracted from clinical data and quantitative biomarkers. The imaging features extraction tools allow the user to collect imaging features and the GLMM module allows the user to select clinical data and imaging features such as stroke lesion characteristics from the database as regressors and regressands. This paper discusses the application scenario and evaluation results of the system in a stroke rehabilitation clinical trial. The system was utilized to manage clinical data and extract imaging biomarkers including stroke lesion volume, location and ventricle/brain ratio. The GLMM module was validated and the efficiency of data analysis was also evaluated.

A White Paper on Global Wheat Health Based on Scenario Development and Analysis.

PubMed

Savary, S; Djurle, A; Yuen, J; Ficke, A; Rossi, V; Esker, P D; Fernandes, J M C; Del Ponte, E M; Kumar, J; Madden, L V; Paul, P; McRoberts, N; Singh, P K; Huber, L; Pope de Vallavielle, C; Saint-Jean, S; Willocquet, L

2017-10-01

Scenario analysis constitutes a useful approach to synthesize knowledge and derive hypotheses in the case of complex systems that are documented with mainly qualitative or very diverse information. In this article, a framework for scenario analysis is designed and then, applied to global wheat health within a timeframe from today to 2050. Scenario analysis entails the choice of settings, the definition of scenarios of change, and the analysis of outcomes of these scenarios in the chosen settings. Three idealized agrosystems, representing a large fraction of the global diversity of wheat-based agrosystems, are considered, which represent the settings of the analysis. Several components of global changes are considered in their consequences on global wheat health: climate change and climate variability, nitrogen fertilizer use, tillage, crop rotation, pesticide use, and the deployment of host plant resistances. Each idealized agrosystem is associated with a scenario of change that considers first, a production situation and its dynamics, and second, the impacts of the evolving production situation on the evolution of crop health. Crop health is represented by six functional groups of wheat pathogens: the pathogens associated with Fusarium head blight; biotrophic fungi, Septoria-like fungi, necrotrophic fungi, soilborne pathogens, and insect-transmitted viruses. The analysis of scenario outcomes is conducted along a risk-analytical pattern, which involves risk probabilities represented by categorized probability levels of disease epidemics, and risk magnitudes represented by categorized levels of crop losses resulting from these levels of epidemics within each production situation. The results from this scenario analysis suggest an overall increase of risk probabilities and magnitudes in the three idealized agrosystems. Changes in risk probability or magnitude however vary with the agrosystem and the functional groups of pathogens. We discuss the effects of global changes on the six functional groups, in terms of their epidemiology and of the crop losses they cause. Scenario analysis enables qualitative analysis of complex systems, such as plant pathosystems that are evolving in response to global changes, including climate change and technology shifts. It also provides a useful framework for quantitative simulation modeling analysis for plant disease epidemiology.

Genetic Literacy and Patient Perceptions of IBD Testing Utility and Disease Control: A Randomized Vignette Study of Genetic Testing

PubMed Central

Hooker, Gillian W.; Peay, Holly; Erby, Lori; Bayless, Theodore; Biesecker, Barbara B.; Roter, Debra L.

2014-01-01

Background Findings from inflammatory bowel disease (IBD) genome-wide association studies are being translated clinically into prognostic and diagnostic indicators of disease. Yet, patient perception and understanding of these tests and their applicability to providing risk information is unclear. The goal of this study was to determine, using hypothetical scenarios, whether patients with IBD perceive genetic testing to be useful for risk assessment, whether genetic test results impact perceived control, and whether low genetic literacy may be a barrier to patient understanding of these tests. Methods Two hundred fifty seven patients with IBD from the Johns Hopkins gastroenterology clinics were randomized to receive a vignette depicting either a genetic testing scenario or a standard blood testing scenario. Participants were asked questions about the vignette and responses were compared between groups. Results Perceptions of test utility for risk assessment were higher among participants responding to the genetic vignette (P < 0.001). There were no significant differences in perceptions of control over IBD after hypothetical testing between vignettes (P = 0.24). Participant responses were modified by genetic literacy, measured using a scale developed for this study. Participants randomized to the genetic vignette who scored higher on the genetic literacy scale perceived greater utility of testing for risk assessment (P = 0.008) and more control after testing (P = 0.02). Conclusions Patients with IBD perceive utility in genetic testing for providing information relevant to family members, and this appreciation is promoted by genetic literacy. Low genetic literacy among patients poses a potential threat to effective translation of genetic and genomic tests. PMID:24691112

Assessment of a simulated contraceptive prescribing activity for pharmacy students.

PubMed

Lynch, Sarah E; Griffin, Brooke L; Vest, Kathleen M

2018-02-01

The role of the pharmacist has been shifting rapidly. One example of change is the passage of legislation allowing pharmacists to independently initiate self-administered hormonal contraceptives in several states. There is no evidence of this specific topic being covered in pharmacy school curricula, and many states are requiring additional post-graduate training. This activity was designed to determine the utility of a contraceptive prescribing simulation activity for pharmacy students. Pharmacy students enrolled in a women's health elective learned about relevant state legislation and attended a clinical skills center simulation activity where they utilized an available prescribing algorithm. Students completed two scenarios and received grades based on their clinical decision-making and patient interaction skills. An electronic survey was distributed post-activity to assess student satisfaction and confidence when prescribing contraceptives. Responses and grades on the assignment were analyzed to determine the activity's utility. Students finished with median scores of 15, 14.8, and 14.5 out of 15 possible points for the three scenarios. Students reported overall satisfaction with the activity, with general agreement that the activity was realistic and made them feel like they were prepared to prescribe contraceptives. Independently initiating contraceptives is a novel practice area for pharmacists. This activity introduced students to the process of prescribing using realistic forms and scenarios. The utility of the activity was twofold - it introduced students to the changing environment of pharmacy practice and allowed students to apply their knowledge of contraceptives and women's health. Students performed well on the activity and reported high levels of satisfaction. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Incremental cost-effectiveness of screening and laser treatment for diabetic retinopathy and macular edema in Malawi.

PubMed

Vetrini, Damir; Kiire, Christine A; Burgess, Philip I; Harding, Simon P; Kayange, Petros C; Kalua, Khumbo; Msukwa, Gerald; Beare, Nicholas A V; Madan, Jason

2018-01-01

To investigate the economic impact of introducing targeted screening and laser photocoagulation treatment for sight-threatening diabetic retinopathy and macular edema in a setting with no previous screening or laser treatment for diabetic retinopathy in sub-Saharan Africa. A cohort Markov model was built to compare combined targeted screening and laser treatment for patients with sight-threatening diabetic retinopathy and macular edema against no intervention. Primary outcomes were incremental cost per quality-adjusted life year (QALY) gained and per disability-adjusted life year (DALY) averted. Primary data were collected on 357 participants from the Malawi Diabetic Retinopathy Study, a prospective, observational cohort study. Multiple scenarios were explored and a probabilistic sensitivity analysis was performed. In the base case (age: 50 years, service utilization rate: 80%), the cost of the intervention and the years of severe visual impairment averted per patient screened were $209 and 2.2 years respectively. Applying the World Health Organization threshold of cost-effectiveness for Malawi ($679), the base case was cost-effective when QALYs were used ($400 per QALY gained) but not when DALYs were used ($766 per DALY averted). The intervention was more cost-effective when it targeted younger patients (age: 30 years) and less cost-effective when the utilization rate was lowered to 50%. Annual photographic screening of diabetic patients attending medical diabetes clinics in Malawi, with the provision of laser treatment for those with sight-threatening diabetic retinopathy and macular edema, appears to be cost-effective in terms of QALYs gained, in our base case scenario. Cost-effectiveness improves if services are utilized more intensively and extended to younger patients.

Producing regionally-relevant multiobjective tradeoffs to engage with Colorado water managers

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Smith, R.; Kasprzyk, J. R.; Basdekas, L.; Dilling, L.

2016-12-01

Disseminating results from water resources systems analysis research can be challenging when there are political or regulatory barriers associated with real-world models, or when a research model does not incorporate management context to which practitioners can relate. As part of a larger transdisciplinary study, we developed a broadly-applicable case study in collaboration with our partners at six diverse water utilities in the Front Range of Colorado, USA. Our model, called the "Eldorado Utility Planning Model", incorporates realistic water management decisions and objectives and achieves a pragmatic balance between system complexity and simplicity. Using the sophisticated modeling platform RiverWare, we modeled a spatially distributed regional network in which, under varying climate scenarios, the Eldorado Utility can meet growing demand from its variety of sources and by interacting with other users in the network. In accordance with complicated Front Range water laws, ownership, priority of use, and restricted uses of water are tracked through RiverWare's accounting functionality. To achieve good system performance, Eldorado can make decisions such as expand/build a reservoir, purchase rights from one or more actors, and enact conservation. This presentation introduces the model, and motivates how it can be used to aid researchers in developing multi-objective evolutionary algorithm (MOEA)-based optimization for similar multi-reservoir systems in Colorado and the Western US. Within the optimization, system performance is quantified by 5 objectives: minimizing time in restrictions; new storage capacity; newly developed supply; and uncaptured water; and maximizing year-end storage. Our results demonstrate critical tradeoffs between the objectives and show how these tradeoffs are affected by several realistic climate change scenarios. These results were used within an interactive workshop that helped demonstrate the application of MOEA-based optimization for water management in the western US.

RELAP5/MOD2 analysis of a postulated cold leg SBLOCA'' simultaneous to a total black-out'' event in the Jose Cabrera Nuclear Station

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Rebollo, L.

1992-04-01

Several beyond-design bases cold leg small-break LOCA postulated scenarios based on the lessons learned'' in the OECD-LOFT LP-SB-3 experiment have been analyzed for the Westinghouse single loop Jose Cabrera Nuclear Power Plant belonging to the Spanish utility UNION ELECTRICA FENOSA, S.A. The analysis has been done by the utility in the Thermal-Hydraulic Accident Analysis Section of the Engineering Department of the Nuclear Division. The RELAP5/MOD2/36.04 code has been used on a CYBER 180/830 computer and the simulation includes the 6 in. RHRS charging line, the 2 in. pressurizer spray, and the 1.5 in. CVCS make-up line piping breaks. The assumptionmore » of a total black-out condition'' coincident with the occurrence of the event has been made in order to consider a plant degraded condition with total active failure of the ECCS. As a result of the analysis, estimates of the time to core overheating startup'' as well as an evaluation of alternate operator measures to mitigate the consequences of the event have been obtained. Finally a proposal for improving the LOCA emergency operating procedure (E-1) has been suggested.« less

RELAP5/MOD2 analysis of a postulated ``cold leg SBLOCA`` simultaneous to a ``total black-out`` event in the Jose Cabrera Nuclear Station

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Rebollo, L.

1992-04-01

Several beyond-design bases cold leg small-break LOCA postulated scenarios based on the ``lessons learned`` in the OECD-LOFT LP-SB-3 experiment have been analyzed for the Westinghouse single loop Jose Cabrera Nuclear Power Plant belonging to the Spanish utility UNION ELECTRICA FENOSA, S.A. The analysis has been done by the utility in the Thermal-Hydraulic & Accident Analysis Section of the Engineering Department of the Nuclear Division. The RELAP5/MOD2/36.04 code has been used on a CYBER 180/830 computer and the simulation includes the 6 in. RHRS charging line, the 2 in. pressurizer spray, and the 1.5 in. CVCS make-up line piping breaks. Themore » assumption of a ``total black-out condition`` coincident with the occurrence of the event has been made in order to consider a plant degraded condition with total active failure of the ECCS. As a result of the analysis, estimates of the ``time to core overheating startup`` as well as an evaluation of alternate operator measures to mitigate the consequences of the event have been obtained. Finally a proposal for improving the LOCA emergency operating procedure (E-1) has been suggested.« less

Low Carbon Technology Options for the Natural Gas ...

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

The ultimate goal of this task is to perform environmental and economic analysis of natural gas based power production technologies (different routes) to investigate and evaluate strategies for reducing emissions from the power sector. It is a broad research area. Initially, the research will be focused on the preliminary analyses of hydrogen fuel based power production technologies utilizing hydrogen fuel in a large size, heavy-duty gas turbines in integrated reformer combined cycle (IRCC) and integrated gasification combined cycle (IGCC) for electric power generation. The research will be expanded step-by-step to include other advanced (e.g., Net Power, a potentially transformative technology utilizing a high efficiency CO2 conversion cycle (Allam cycle), and chemical looping etc.) pre-combustion and post-combustion technologies applied to natural gas, other fossil fuels (coal and heavy oil) and biomass/biofuel based on findings. Screening analysis is already under development and data for the analysis is being processed. The immediate action on this task include preliminary economic and environmental analysis of power production technologies applied to natural gas. Data for catalytic reforming technology to produce hydrogen from natural gas is being collected and compiled on Microsoft Excel. The model will be expanded for exploring and comparing various technologies scenarios to meet our goal. The primary focus of this study is to: 1) understand the chemic

Two Dimensional Viscoelastic Stress Analysis of a Prototypical JIMO Turbine Wheel

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Gayda, John; Gabb, Timothy

2005-01-01

The designers of the Jupiter Icy Moons Orbiter (JIMO) are investigating the potential of nuclear powered-electric propulsion technology to provide deep space propulsion. In one design scenario a closed-Brayton-cycle power converter is used to convert thermal energy from a nuclear reactor to electrical power for the spacecraft utilizing an inert gas as the working fluid to run a turboalternator as described in L.S. Mason, "A Power Conversion for the Jupiter Icy Moons Orbiter," Journal of Propulsion and Power, vol. 20, no. 5, pp. 902-910. A key component in the turboalternator is the radial flow turbine wheel which may be fabricated from a cast superalloy. This turbine wheel is envisioned to run continuously over the life of the mission, which is anticipated to be about ten years. This scenario places unusual material requirements on the turbine wheel. Unlike the case of terrestrial turbine engines, fatigue, associated with start-up and shut-down of the engine, foreign-object damage, and corrosion issues are insignificant and thus creep issues become dominate. The purpose of this paper is to present estimates for creep growth of a prototypical JIMO turbine wheel over a ten year life. Since an actual design and bill of materials does not exist, the results presented in this paper are based on preliminary concepts which are likely to evolve over time. For this reason, as well as computational efficiency, a simplified 2-D, in lieu of a 3-D, viscoelastic, finite element model of a prototypical turbine wheel will be utilized employing material properties for the cast superalloy MAR-M247. The creep data employed in this analysis are based on preliminary data being generated at NASA Glenn Research Center.

Financial considerations of policy options to enhance biomass utilization for reducing wildfire hazards

Treesearch

Dennis R. Becker; Debra Larson; Eini C. Lowell

2009-01-01

The Harvest Cost-Revenue Estimator, a financial model, was used to examine the cost sensitivity of forest biomass harvesting scenarios to targeted policies designed to stimulate wildfire hazardous fuel reduction projects. The policies selected represent actual policies enacted by federal and state governments to provide incentive to biomass utilization and are aimed at...

Development of method for evaluating estimated inundation area by using river flood analysis based on multiple flood scenarios

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ono, T.; Takahashi, T.

2017-12-01

Non-structural mitigation measures such as flood hazard map based on estimated inundation area have been more important because heavy rains exceeding the design rainfall frequently occur in recent years. However, conventional method may lead to an underestimation of the area because assumed locations of dike breach in river flood analysis are limited to the cases exceeding the high-water level. The objective of this study is to consider the uncertainty of estimated inundation area with difference of the location of dike breach in river flood analysis. This study proposed multiple flood scenarios which can set automatically multiple locations of dike breach in river flood analysis. The major premise of adopting this method is not to be able to predict the location of dike breach correctly. The proposed method utilized interval of dike breach which is distance of dike breaches placed next to each other. That is, multiple locations of dike breach were set every interval of dike breach. The 2D shallow water equations was adopted as the governing equation of river flood analysis, and the leap-frog scheme with staggered grid was used. The river flood analysis was verified by applying for the 2015 Kinugawa river flooding, and the proposed multiple flood scenarios was applied for the Akutagawa river in Takatsuki city. As the result of computation in the Akutagawa river, a comparison with each computed maximum inundation depth of dike breaches placed next to each other proved that the proposed method enabled to prevent underestimation of estimated inundation area. Further, the analyses on spatial distribution of inundation class and maximum inundation depth in each of the measurement points also proved that the optimum interval of dike breach which can evaluate the maximum inundation area using the minimum assumed locations of dike breach. In brief, this study found the optimum interval of dike breach in the Akutagawa river, which enabled estimated maximum inundation area to predict efficiently and accurately. The river flood analysis by using this proposed method will contribute to mitigate flood disaster by improving the accuracy of estimated inundation area.

Analysis of Unit-Level Changes in Operations with Increased SPP Wind from EPRI/LCG Balancing Study

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Hadley, Stanton W

2012-01-01

Wind power development in the United States is outpacing previous estimates for many regions, particularly those with good wind resources. The pace of wind power deployment may soon outstrip regional capabilities to provide transmission and integration services to achieve the most economic power system operation. Conversely, regions such as the Southeastern United States do not have good wind resources and will have difficulty meeting proposed federal Renewable Portfolio Standards with local supply. There is a growing need to explore innovative solutions for collaborating between regions to achieve the least cost solution for meeting such a renewable energy mandate. The Departmentmore » of Energy funded the project 'Integrating Midwest Wind Energy into Southeast Electricity Markets' to be led by EPRI in coordination with the main authorities for the regions: SPP, Entergy, TVA, Southern Company and OPC. EPRI utilized several subcontractors for the project including LCG, the developers of the model UPLAN. The study aims to evaluate the operating cost benefits of coordination of scheduling and balancing for Southwest Power Pool (SPP) wind transfers to Southeastern Electric Reliability Council (SERC) Balancing Authorities (BAs). The primary objective of this project is to analyze the benefits of regional cooperation for integrating mid-western wind energy into southeast electricity markets. Scenarios were defined, modeled and investigated to address production variability and uncertainty and the associated balancing of large quantities of wind power in SPP and delivery to energy markets in the southern regions of the SERC. DOE funded Oak Ridge National Laboratory to provide additional support to the project, including a review of results and any side analysis that may provide additional insight. This report is a unit-by-unit analysis of changes in operations due to the different scenarios used in the overall study. It focuses on the change in capacity factors and the number of start-ups required for each unit since those criteria summarize key aspects of plant operations, how often are they called upon and how much do they operate. The primary analysis of the overall project is based on security-constrained unit commitment (SCUC) and economic dispatch (SCED) simulations of the SPP-SERC regions as modeled for the year 2022. The SCUC/SCED models utilized for the project were developed through extensive consultation with the project utility partners, to ensure the various regions and operational practices are represented as best as possible in the model. SPP, Entergy, Oglethorpe Power Company (OPC), Southern Company, and the Tennessee Valley Authority (TVA) actively participated in the project providing input data for the models and review of simulation results and conclusions. While other SERC utility systems are modeled, the listed SERC utilities were explicitly included as active participants in the project due to the size of their load and relative proximity to SPP for importing wind energy.« less

Greenhouse gas emissions during MSW landfilling in China: influence of waste characteristics and LFG treatment measures.

PubMed

Yang, Na; Zhang, Hua; Shao, Li-Ming; Lü, Fan; He, Pin-Jing

2013-11-15

Reducing greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from municipal solid waste (MSW) treatment can be highly cost-effective in terms of GHG mitigation. This study investigated GHG emissions during MSW landfilling in China under four existing scenarios and in terms of seven different categories: waste collection and transportation, landfill management, leachate treatment, fugitive CH4 (FM) emissions, substitution of electricity production, carbon sequestration and N2O and CO emissions. GHG emissions from simple sanitary landfilling technology where no landfill gas (LFG) extraction took place (Scenario 1) were higher (641-998 kg CO2-eq·t(-1)ww) than those from open dump (Scenario 0, 480-734 kg CO2-eq·t(-1)ww). This was due to the strictly anaerobic conditions in Scenario 1. LFG collection and treatment reduced GHG emissions to 448-684 kg CO2-eq·t(-1)ww in Scenario 2 (with LFG flare) and 214-277 kg CO2-eq·t(-1)ww in Scenario 3 (using LFG for electricity production). Amongst the seven categories, FM was the predominant contributor to GHG emissions. Global sensitivity analysis demonstrated that the parameters associated with waste characteristics (i.e. CH4 potential and carbon sequestered faction) and LFG management (i.e. LFG collection efficiency and CH4 oxidation efficiency) were of great importance. A further learning on the MSW in China indicated that water content and dry matter content of food waste were the basic factors affecting GHG emissions. Source separation of food waste, as well as increasing the incineration ratio of mixed collected MSW, could effectively mitigate the overall GHG emissions from landfilling in a specific city. To increase the LFG collection and CH4 oxidation efficiencies could considerably reduce GHG emissions on the landfill site level. While, the improvement in the LFG utilization measures had an insignificant impact as long as the LFG is recovered for energy generation. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Climate impact analysis of waste treatment scenarios--thermal treatment of commercial and pretreated waste versus landfilling in Austria.

PubMed

Ragossnig, A M; Wartha, C; Pomberger, R

2009-11-01

A major challenge for modern waste management lies in a smart integration of waste-to-energy installations in local energy systems in such a way that the energy efficiency of the waste-to-energy plant is optimized and that the energy contained in the waste is, therefore, optimally utilized. The extent of integration of thermal waste treatment processes into regular energy supply systems plays a major role with regard to climate control. In this research, the specific waste management situation looked at scenarios aiming at maximizing the energy recovery from waste (i.e. actual scenario and waste-to-energy process with 75% energy efficiency [22.5% electricity, 52.5% heat]) yield greenhouse gas emission savings due to the fact that more greenhouse gas emissions are avoided in the energy sector than caused by the various waste treatment processes. Comparing dedicated waste-to-energy-systems based on the combined heat and power (CHP) process with concepts based on sole electricity production, the energy efficiency proves to be crucial with regard to climate control. This underlines the importance of choosing appropriate sites for waste-to-energy-plants. This research was looking at the effect with regard to the climate impact of various waste management scenarios that could be applied alternatively by a private waste management company in Austria. The research is, therefore, based on a specific set of data for the waste streams looked at (waste characteristics, logistics needed, etc.). Furthermore, the investigated scenarios have been defined based on the actual available alternatives with regard to the usage of treatment plants for this specific company. The standard scenarios for identifying climate impact implications due to energy recovery from waste are based on the respective marginal energy data for the power and heat generation facilities/industrial processes in Austria.

Impacts of climate change on the global forest sector

USGS Publications Warehouse

Perez-Garcia, J.; Joyce, L.A.; McGuire, A.D.; Xiao, X.

2002-01-01

The path and magnitude of future anthropogenic emissions of carbon dioxide will likely influence changes in climate that may impact the global forest sector. These responses in the global forest sector may have implications for international efforts to stabilize the atmospheric concentration of carbon dioxide. This study takes a step toward including the role of global forest sector in integrated assessments of the global carbon cycle by linking global models of climate dynamics, ecosystem processes and forest economics to assess the potential responses of the global forest sector to different levels of greenhouse gas emissions. We utilize three climate scenarios and two economic scenarios to represent a range of greenhouse gas emissions and economic behavior. At the end of the analysis period (2040), the potential responses in regional forest growing stock simulated by the global ecosystem model range from decreases and increases for the low emissions climate scenario to increases in all regions for the high emissions climate scenario. The changes in vegetation are used to adjust timber supply in the softwood and hardwood sectors of the economic model. In general, the global changes in welfare are positive, but small across all scenarios. At the regional level, the changes in welfare can be large and either negative or positive. Markets and trade in forest products play important roles in whether a region realizes any gains associated with climate change. In general, regions with the lowest wood fiber production cost are able to expand harvests. Trade in forest products leads to lower prices elsewhere. The low-cost regions expand market shares and force higher-cost regions to decrease their harvests. Trade produces different economic gains and losses across the globe even though, globally, economic welfare increases. The results of this study indicate that assumptions within alternative climate scenarios and about trade in forest products are important factors that strongly influence the effects of climate change on the global forest sector.

Study on Potential Changes in Geological and Disposal Environment Caused by 'Natural Phenomena' on a HLW Disposal System

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kawamura, M.; Umeda, K.; Ohi, T.; Ishimaru, T.; Niizato, T.; Yasue, K.; Makino, H.

2007-12-01

We have developed a formal evaluation method to assess the potential impact of natural phenomena (earthquakes and faulting; volcanism; uplift, subsidence, denudation and sedimentation; climatic and sea-level changes) on a High Level Radioactive Waste (HLW) Disposal System. In 2000, we had developed perturbation scenarios in a generic and conservative sense and illustrated the potential impact on a HLW disposal system. As results of the development of perturbation scenarios, two points were highlighted for consideration in subsequent work: improvement of the scenarios from the viewpoints of reality, transparency, traceability and consistency and avoiding extreme conservatism. Subsequently, we have thus developed a new procedure for describing such perturbation scenarios based on further studies of the characteristics of these natural perturbation phenomena in Japan. The approach to describing the perturbation scenario is effectively developed in five steps: Step 1: Description of potential process of phenomena and their impacts on the geological environment. Step 2: Characterization of potential changes of geological environment in terms of T-H-M-C (Thermal - Hydrological - Mechanical - Chemical) processes. The focus is on specific T-H-M-C parameters that influence geological barrier performance, utilizing the input from Step 1. Step 3: Classification of potential influences, based on similarity of T-H-M-C perturbations. This leads to development of perturbation scenarios to serve as a basis for consequence analysis. Step 4: Establishing models and parameters for performance assessment. Step 5: Calculation and assessment. This study focuses on identifying key T-H-M-C process associated with perturbations at Step 2. This framework has two advantages. First one is assuring maintenance of traceability during the scenario construction processes, facilitating the production and structuring of suitable records. The second is providing effective elicitation and organization of information from a wide range of investigations of earth sciences within a performance assessment context. In this framework, scenario development work proceeds in a stepwise manner, to ensure clear identification of the impact of processes associated with these phenomena on a HLW disposal system. Output is organized to create credible scenarios with required transparency, consistency, traceability and adequate conservatism. In this presentation, the potential impact of natural phenomena in the viewpoint of performance assessment for HLW disposal will be discussed and modeled using the approach.

A Comparison of Probabilistic and Deterministic Campaign Analysis for Human Space Exploration

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Merrill, R. Gabe; Andraschko, Mark; Stromgren, Chel; Cirillo, Bill; Earle, Kevin; Goodliff, Kandyce

2008-01-01

Human space exploration is by its very nature an uncertain endeavor. Vehicle reliability, technology development risk, budgetary uncertainty, and launch uncertainty all contribute to stochasticity in an exploration scenario. However, traditional strategic analysis has been done in a deterministic manner, analyzing and optimizing the performance of a series of planned missions. History has shown that exploration scenarios rarely follow such a planned schedule. This paper describes a methodology to integrate deterministic and probabilistic analysis of scenarios in support of human space exploration. Probabilistic strategic analysis is used to simulate "possible" scenario outcomes, based upon the likelihood of occurrence of certain events and a set of pre-determined contingency rules. The results of the probabilistic analysis are compared to the nominal results from the deterministic analysis to evaluate the robustness of the scenario to adverse events and to test and optimize contingency planning.

Productivity improvement using discrete events simulation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hazza, M. H. F. Al; Elbishari, E. M. Y.; Ismail, M. Y. Bin; Adesta, E. Y. T.; Rahman, Nur Salihah Binti Abdul

2018-01-01

The increasing in complexity of the manufacturing systems has increased the cost of investment in many industries. Furthermore, the theoretical feasibility studies are not enough to take the decision in investing for that particular area. Therefore, the development of the new advanced software is protecting the manufacturer from investing money in production lines that may not be sufficient and effective with their requirement in terms of machine utilization and productivity issue. By conducting a simulation, using accurate model will reduce and eliminate the risk associated with their new investment. The aim of this research is to prove and highlight the importance of simulation in decision-making process. Delmia quest software was used as a simulation program to run a simulation for the production line. A simulation was first done for the existing production line and show that the estimated production rate is 261 units/day. The results have been analysed based on utilization percentage and idle time. Two different scenarios have been proposed based on different objectives. The first scenario is by focusing on low utilization machines and their idle time, this was resulted in minimizing the number of machines used by three with the addition of the works who maintain them without having an effect on the production rate. The second scenario is to increase the production rate by upgrading the curing machine which lead to the increase in the daily productivity by 7% from 261 units to 281 units.

What is the Nondominated Formulation? A Demonstration of de Novo Water Supply Portfolio Planning Under Deep Uncertainty

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kasprzyk, J. R.; Reed, P. M.; Characklis, G. W.; Kirsch, B. R.

2010-12-01

This paper proposes and demonstrates a new interactive framework for sensitivity-informed de Novo programming, in which a learning approach to formulating decision problems can confront the deep uncertainty within water management problems. The framework couples global sensitivity analysis using Sobol’ variance decomposition with multiobjective evolutionary algorithms (MOEAs) to generate planning alternatives and test their robustness to new modeling assumptions and scenarios. We explore these issues within the context of a risk-based water supply management problem, where a city seeks the most efficient use of a water market. The case study examines a single city’s water supply in the Lower Rio Grande Valley (LRGV) in Texas, using both a 10-year planning horizon and an extreme single-year drought scenario. The city’s water supply portfolio comprises a volume of permanent rights to reservoir inflows and use of a water market through anticipatory thresholds for acquiring transfers of water through optioning and spot leases. Diagnostic information from the Sobol’ variance decomposition is used to create a sensitivity-informed problem formulation testing different decision variable configurations, with tradeoffs for the formulation solved using a MOEA. Subsequent analysis uses the drought scenario to expose tradeoffs between long-term and short-term planning and illustrate the impact of deeply uncertain assumptions on water availability in droughts. The results demonstrate water supply portfolios’ efficiency, reliability, and utilization of transfers in the water supply market and show how to adaptively improve the value and robustness of our problem formulations by evolving our definition of optimality to discover key tradeoffs.

An Information-Centric Approach to Autonomous Trajectory Planning Utilizing Optimal Control Techniques

DTIC Science & Technology

2009-09-01

to promote one way as the best, but to show there are several ways to define the problem. 107 Figure 71. Final Orientation/Obstacle Scenario...a comparison of the running cost vs. distance from an obstacle for varying values of p. Simulations have shown that for 4p  , the running cost...sliding door example. This scenario shows a major weakness when conducting trajectory planning using snapshots in a dynamic environment

Leveling the Playing Field: China’s Development of Advanced Energy Weapons

DTIC Science & Technology

2012-05-02

02-05-2012 2. REPORT TYPE Master of Military Studies Research Paper 3. DATES COVERED (From - To) September 2011 - April 2012 5a. CONTRACT NUMBER...weapons in a surprise attack scenario to counter superior U.S. capabilities and technology. This paper will update and review current and developing...utilizing these weapons in a surprise attack scenario to counter superior U.S. capabilities and technology. This paper will update and review current

Applicability of risk-based management and the need for risk-based economic decision analysis at hazardous waste contaminated sites.

PubMed

Khadam, Ibrahim; Kaluarachchi, Jagath J

2003-07-01

Decision analysis in subsurface contamination management is generally carried out through a traditional engineering economic viewpoint. However, new advances in human health risk assessment, namely, the probabilistic risk assessment, and the growing awareness of the importance of soft data in the decision-making process, require decision analysis methodologies that are capable of accommodating non-technical and politically biased qualitative information. In this work, we discuss the major limitations of the currently practiced decision analysis framework, which evolves around the definition of risk and cost of risk, and its poor ability to communicate risk-related information. A demonstration using a numerical example was conducted to provide insight on these limitations of the current decision analysis framework. The results from this simple ground water contamination and remediation scenario were identical to those obtained from studies carried out on existing Superfund sites, which suggests serious flaws in the current risk management framework. In order to provide a perspective on how these limitations may be avoided in future formulation of the management framework, more matured and well-accepted approaches to decision analysis in dam safety and the utility industry, where public health and public investment are of great concern, are presented and their applicability in subsurface remediation management is discussed. Finally, in light of the success of the application of risk-based decision analysis in dam safety and the utility industry, potential options for decision analysis in subsurface contamination management are discussed.

Dabigatran for the Treatment and Secondary Prevention of Venous Thromboembolism; A Cost-Effectiveness Analysis for the Netherlands.

PubMed

Stevanović, J; de Jong, L A; Kappelhoff, B S; Dvortsin, E P; Voorhaar, M; Postma, M J

2016-01-01

Dabigatran was proven to have similar effect on the prevention of recurrence of venous thromboembolism (VTE) and a lower risk of bleeding compared to vitamin K antagonists (VKA). The aim of this study is to assess the cost-effectiveness (CE) of dabigatran for the treatment and secondary prevention in patients with VTE compared to VKAs in the Dutch setting. Previously published Markov model was modified and updated to assess the CE of dabigatran and VKAs for the treatment and secondary prevention in patients with VTE from a societal perspective in the base-case analysis. The model was populated with efficacy and safety data from major dabigatran trials (i.e. RE-COVER, RECOVER II, RE-MEDY and RE-SONATE), Dutch specific costs, and utilities derived from dabigatran trials or other published literature. Univariate, probabilistic sensitivity and a number of scenario analyses evaluating various decision-analytic settings (e.g. the perspective of analysis, use of anticoagulants only for treatment or only for secondary prevention, or comparison to no treatment) were tested on the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER). In the base-case scenario, patients on dabigatran gained an additional 0.034 quality adjusted life year (QALY) while saving €1,598. Results of univariate sensitivity analysis were quite robust. The probability that dabigatran is cost-effective at a willingness-to-pay threshold of €20,000/QALY was 98.1%. From the perspective of healthcare provider, extended anticoagulation with dabigatran compared to VKAs was estimated at €2,158 per QALY gained. The ICER for anticoagulation versus no treatment in patients with equipoise risk of recurrent VTE was estimated at €33,379 per QALY gained. Other scenarios showed dabigatran was cost-saving. From a societal perspective, dabigatran is likely to be a cost-effective or even cost-saving strategy for treatment and secondary prevention of VTE compared to VKAs in the Netherlands.

Multi-hazard Assessment and Scenario Toolbox (MhAST): A Framework for Analyzing Compounding Effects of Multiple Hazards

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sadegh, M.; Moftakhari, H.; AghaKouchak, A.

2017-12-01

Many natural hazards are driven by multiple forcing variables, and concurrence/consecutive extreme events significantly increases risk of infrastructure/system failure. It is a common practice to use univariate analysis based upon a perceived ruling driver to estimate design quantiles and/or return periods of extreme events. A multivariate analysis, however, permits modeling simultaneous occurrence of multiple forcing variables. In this presentation, we introduce the Multi-hazard Assessment and Scenario Toolbox (MhAST) that comprehensively analyzes marginal and joint probability distributions of natural hazards. MhAST also offers a wide range of scenarios of return period and design levels and their likelihoods. Contribution of this study is four-fold: 1. comprehensive analysis of marginal and joint probability of multiple drivers through 17 continuous distributions and 26 copulas, 2. multiple scenario analysis of concurrent extremes based upon the most likely joint occurrence, one ruling variable, and weighted random sampling of joint occurrences with similar exceedance probabilities, 3. weighted average scenario analysis based on a expected event, and 4. uncertainty analysis of the most likely joint occurrence scenario using a Bayesian framework.

Controlling the signal: Practical privacy protection of genomic data sharing through Beacon services.

PubMed

Wan, Zhiyu; Vorobeychik, Yevgeniy; Kantarcioglu, Murat; Malin, Bradley

2017-07-26

Genomic data is increasingly collected by a wide array of organizations. As such, there is a growing demand to make summary information about such collections available more widely. However, over the past decade, a series of investigations have shown that attacks, rooted in statistical inference methods, can be applied to discern the presence of a known individual's DNA sequence in the pool of subjects. Recently, it was shown that the Beacon Project of the Global Alliance for Genomics and Health, a web service for querying about the presence (or absence) of a specific allele, was vulnerable. The Integrating Data for Analysis, Anonymization, and Sharing (iDASH) Center modeled a track in their third Privacy Protection Challenge on how to mitigate the Beacon vulnerability. We developed the winning solution for this track. This paper describes our computational method to optimize the tradeoff between the utility and the privacy of the Beacon service. We generalize the genomic data sharing problem beyond that which was introduced in the iDASH Challenge to be more representative of real world scenarios to allow for a more comprehensive evaluation. We then conduct a sensitivity analysis of our method with respect to several state-of-the-art methods using a dataset of 400,000 positions in Chromosome 10 for 500 individuals from Phase 3 of the 1000 Genomes Project. All methods are evaluated for utility, privacy and efficiency. Our method achieves better performance than all state-of-the-art methods, irrespective of how key factors (e.g., the allele frequency in the population, the size of the pool and utility weights) change from the original parameters of the problem. We further illustrate that it is possible for our method to exhibit subpar performance under special cases of allele query sequences. However, we show our method can be extended to address this issue when the query sequence is fixed and known a priori to the data custodian, so that they may plan stage their responses accordingly. This research shows that it is possible to thwart the attack on Beacon services, without substantially altering the utility of the system, using computational methods. The method we initially developed is limited by the design of the scenario and evaluation protocol for the iDASH Challenge; however, it can be improved by allowing the data custodian to act in a staged manner.

Advanced Imaging Adds Little Value in the Diagnosis of Femoroacetabular Impingement Syndrome.

PubMed

Cunningham, Daniel J; Paranjape, Chinmay S; Harris, Joshua D; Nho, Shane J; Olson, Steven A; Mather, Richard C

2017-12-20

Femoroacetabular impingement (FAI) syndrome is an increasingly recognized source of hip pain and disability in young active adults. In order to confirm the diagnosis, providers often supplement physical examination maneuvers and radiographs with intra-articular hip injection, magnetic resonance imaging (MRI), or magnetic resonance arthrography (MRA). Since diagnostic imaging represents the fastest rising cost segment in U.S. health care, there is a need for value-driven diagnostic algorithms. The purpose of this study was to identify cost-effective diagnostic strategies for symptomatic FAI, comparing history and physical examination (H&P) alone (utilizing only radiographic imaging) with supplementation with injection, MRI, or MRA. A simple-chain decision model run as a cost-utility analysis was constructed to assess the diagnostic value of the MRI, MRA, and injection that are added to the H&P and radiographs in diagnosing symptomatic FAI. Strategies were compared using the incremental cost-utility ratio (ICUR) with a willingness to pay (WTP) of $100,000/QALY (quality-adjusted life year). Direct costs were measured using the Humana database (PearlDiver). Diagnostic test accuracy, treatment outcome probabilities, and utilities were extracted from the literature. H&P with and without supplemental diagnostic injection was the most cost-effective. Adjunct injection was preferred in situations with a WTP of >$60,000/QALY, low examination sensitivity, and high FAI prevalence. With low disease prevalence and low examination sensitivity, as may occur in a general practitioner's office, H&P with injection was the most cost-effective strategy, whereas in the reciprocal scenario, H&P with injection was only favored at exceptionally high WTP (∼$990,000). H&P and radiographs with supplemental diagnostic injection are preferred over advanced imaging, even with reasonable deviations from published values of disease prevalence, test sensitivity, and test specificity. Providers with low examination sensitivity in situations with low disease prevalence may benefit most from including injection in their diagnostic strategy. Providers with high examination sensitivity in situations with high disease prevalence may not benefit from including injection in their diagnostic strategy. Providers should not routinely rely on advanced imaging to diagnose FAI syndrome, although advanced imaging may have a role in challenging clinical scenarios. Economic and Decision Analysis Level IV. See Instructions for Authors for a complete description of levels of evidence.

[Cost-utility analysis of relapsing-remitting multiple sclerosis treatment with azathioprine or interferon beta in Spain].

PubMed

Rubio-Terrés, C; Domínguez-Gil Hurlé, A

To carry out a cost-utility analysis of the treatment of relapsing-remitting multiple sclerosis (RRMS) with azathioprine (Imurel) or beta interferon (all, Avonex, Rebif and Betaferon). Pharmacoeconomic Markov model comparing treatment options by simulating the life of a hypothetical cohort of women aged 30, from the societal perspective. The transition probabilities, utilities, resource utilisation and costs (direct and indirect) were obtained from Spanish sources and from bibliography. Univariant sensitivity analyses of the base case were performed. In the base case analysis, the average cost per patient (euros in 2003) of a life treatment, considering a life expectancy of 53 years, would be 620,205, 1,047,836, 1,006,014, 1,161,638 and 968,157 euros with Imurel, all interferons, Avonex, Rebif and Betaferon, respectively. Therefore, the saving with Imurel would range between 327,000 and 520,000 euros approximately. The quality-adjusted life years (QALY) obtained with Imurel or interferons would be 10.08 and 9.30, respectively, with an average gain of 0.78 QALY per patient treated with Imurel. The sensitivity analyses confirmed the robustness of the base case. The cost of one additional QALY with interferons would range between 413,000 and 1,308,000 euros approximately in the hypothetical worst scenario for Imurel. For a typical patient with RRMS, treatment with Imurel would be more efficient than interferons and would dominate (would be more efficacious with lower costs) beta interferon.

FORMAL SCENARIO DEVELOPMENT FOR ENVIRONMENTAL IMPACT ASSESSMENT STUDIES

EPA Science Inventory

Scenario analysis is a process of evaluating possible future events through the consideration of alternative plausible (though not equally likely) outcomes (scenarios). The analysis is designed to enable improved decision-making and assessment through a more rigorous evaluation o...

Survey of the clinical assessment and utility of near-infrared cerebral oximetry in cardiac surgery.

PubMed

Zacharias, David G; Lilly, Kevin; Shaw, Cynthia L; Pirundini, Paul; Rizzo, Robert J; Body, Simon C; Longford, Nicholas T

2014-04-01

Near-infrared cerebral oximetry increasingly is used for monitoring during cardiac surgery. Nonetheless, the scientific basis for incorporating this technology into clinical practice, the indications for when to do so, and standard diagnostic and treatment algorithms for defining abnormal values are yet to be rigorously defined. The authors hypothesized that there would be (1) variation in clinical use and practices for near-infrared spectroscopy (NIRS), and (2) variation in management of patients when clinicians are provided with NIRS information. In order to test this hypothesis, they sought to assess the nature and strength of response heterogeneity among anesthesiologists and cardiac perfusionists when provided with cardiac surgery patient scenarios and cerebral oximetry data. A prospectively collected survey. A hospital-based, multi-institutional, multinational study. By e-mail, the authors surveyed the membership of the Society of Cardiovascular Anesthesiologists and the online Cardiovascular Perfusion Forum. This survey was focused on ascertaining what actions clinicians would take in each scenario, given case information and cerebral oximetry tracings. Questions were based on 11 patient scenarios selected to represent small, large, symmetric, or asymmetric decreases in measured regional cerebral oxygen saturation (rScO2) encountered during cardiac surgery. Information on the respondents' (n = 796; 73% anesthesiologists) clinical practice, demography, and cerebral oximetry utilization was collected. An index of dispersion was used to assess response heterogeneity overall and within demographic subgroups. The majority of respondents indicated that cerebral oximetry monitoring was either useful or an essential monitor, especially perfusionists and clinicians who used cerebral oximetry most frequently. There were marked differences in responses between perfusionists and anesthesiologists for 4 of the 6 scenarios (p<0.005 for each of these 4 scenarios) occurring during cardiopulmonary bypass. Scenarios having greatest rScO2 reduction or asymmetry in rScO2 were associated with the highest dispersion, indicating least agreement in management. Scenarios with mild or moderate rScO2 reduction were associated with the lowest dispersion, indicating greater agreement in management. Although experimental data gradually are accumulating to support the role for cerebral oximetry monitoring during cardiac surgery, the results of the present survey support the view that its role remains poorly defined, and consensus for its appropriate use is lacking. Importantly, the authors observed marked variation in the use, perceived utility, and management of patients for 4 of the 6 CPB scenarios between perfusionists and anesthesiologists who share the management of CPB. These findings support the need for well-designed, adequately-powered clinical trials examining the value of this technology. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Security Analysis of Smart Grid Cyber Physical Infrastructures Using Modeling and Game Theoretic Simulation

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Abercrombie, Robert K; Sheldon, Frederick T.

Cyber physical computing infrastructures typically consist of a number of sites are interconnected. Its operation critically depends both on cyber components and physical components. Both types of components are subject to attacks of different kinds and frequencies, which must be accounted for the initial provisioning and subsequent operation of the infrastructure via information security analysis. Information security analysis can be performed using game theory implemented in dynamic Agent Based Game Theoretic (ABGT) simulations. Such simulations can be verified with the results from game theory analysis and further used to explore larger scale, real world scenarios involving multiple attackers, defenders, andmore » information assets. We concentrated our analysis on the electric sector failure scenarios and impact analyses by the NESCOR Working Group Study, From the Section 5 electric sector representative failure scenarios; we extracted the four generic failure scenarios and grouped them into three specific threat categories (confidentiality, integrity, and availability) to the system. These specific failure scenarios serve as a demonstration of our simulation. The analysis using our ABGT simulation demonstrates how to model the electric sector functional domain using a set of rationalized game theoretic rules decomposed from the failure scenarios in terms of how those scenarios might impact the cyber physical infrastructure network with respect to CIA.« less

Wide-area mapping of small-scale features in agricultural landscapes using airborne remote sensing

PubMed Central

O’Connell, Jerome; Bradter, Ute; Benton, Tim G.

2015-01-01

Natural and semi-natural habitats in agricultural landscapes are likely to come under increasing pressure with the global population set to exceed 9 billion by 2050. These non-cropped habitats are primarily made up of trees, hedgerows and grassy margins and their amount, quality and spatial configuration can have strong implications for the delivery and sustainability of various ecosystem services. In this study high spatial resolution (0.5 m) colour infrared aerial photography (CIR) was used in object based image analysis for the classification of non-cropped habitat in a 10,029 ha area of southeast England. Three classification scenarios were devised using 4 and 9 class scenarios. The machine learning algorithm Random Forest (RF) was used to reduce the number of variables used for each classification scenario by 25.5 % ± 2.7%. Proportion of votes from the 4 class hierarchy was made available to the 9 class scenarios and where the highest ranked variables in all cases. This approach allowed for misclassified parent objects to be correctly classified at a lower level. A single object hierarchy with 4 class proportion of votes produced the best result (kappa 0.909). Validation of the optimum training sample size in RF showed no significant difference between mean internal out-of-bag error and external validation. As an example of the utility of this data, we assessed habitat suitability for a declining farmland bird, the yellowhammer (Emberiza citronella), which requires hedgerows associated with grassy margins. We found that ∼22% of hedgerows were within 200 m of margins with an area >183.31 m2. The results from this analysis can form a key information source at the environmental and policy level in landscape optimisation for food production and ecosystem service sustainability. PMID:26664131

Ethanol distribution, dispensing, and use: analysis of a portion of the biomass-to-biofuels supply chain using system dynamics.

PubMed

Vimmerstedt, Laura J; Bush, Brian; Peterson, Steve

2012-01-01

The Energy Independence and Security Act of 2007 targets use of 36 billion gallons of biofuels per year by 2022. Achieving this may require substantial changes to current transportation fuel systems for distribution, dispensing, and use in vehicles. The U.S. Department of Energy and the National Renewable Energy Laboratory designed a system dynamics approach to help focus government action by determining what supply chain changes would have the greatest potential to accelerate biofuels deployment. The National Renewable Energy Laboratory developed the Biomass Scenario Model, a system dynamics model which represents the primary system effects and dependencies in the biomass-to-biofuels supply chain. The model provides a framework for developing scenarios and conducting biofuels policy analysis. This paper focuses on the downstream portion of the supply chain-represented in the distribution logistics, dispensing station, and fuel utilization, and vehicle modules of the Biomass Scenario Model. This model initially focused on ethanol, but has since been expanded to include other biofuels. Some portions of this system are represented dynamically with major interactions and feedbacks, especially those related to a dispensing station owner's decision whether to offer ethanol fuel and a consumer's choice whether to purchase that fuel. Other portions of the system are modeled with little or no dynamics; the vehicle choices of consumers are represented as discrete scenarios. This paper explores conditions needed to sustain an ethanol fuel market and identifies implications of these findings for program and policy goals. A large, economically sustainable ethanol fuel market (or other biofuel market) requires low end-user fuel price relative to gasoline and sufficient producer payment, which are difficult to achieve simultaneously. Other requirements (different for ethanol vs. other biofuel markets) include the need for infrastructure for distribution and dispensing and widespread use of high ethanol blends in flexible-fuel vehicles.

Using Queuing Theory and Simulation Modelling to Reduce Waiting Times in An Iranian Emergency Department

PubMed Central

Haghighinejad, Hourvash Akbari; Kharazmi, Erfan; Hatam, Nahid; Yousefi, Sedigheh; Hesami, Seyed Ali; Danaei, Mina; Askarian, Mehrdad

2016-01-01

Background: Hospital emergencies have an essential role in health care systems. In the last decade, developed countries have paid great attention to overcrowding crisis in emergency departments. Simulation analysis of complex models for which conditions will change over time is much more effective than analytical solutions and emergency department (ED) is one of the most complex models for analysis. This study aimed to determine the number of patients who are waiting and waiting time in emergency department services in an Iranian hospital ED and to propose scenarios to reduce its queue and waiting time. Methods: This is a cross-sectional study in which simulation software (Arena, version 14) was used. The input information was extracted from the hospital database as well as through sampling. The objective was to evaluate the response variables of waiting time, number waiting and utilization of each server and test the three scenarios to improve them. Results: Running the models for 30 days revealed that a total of 4088 patients left the ED after being served and 1238 patients waited in the queue for admission in the ED bed area at end of the run (actually these patients received services out of their defined capacity). The first scenario result in the number of beds had to be increased from 81 to179 in order that the number waiting of the “bed area” server become almost zero. The second scenario which attempted to limit hospitalization time in the ED bed area to the third quartile of the serving time distribution could decrease the number waiting to 586 patients. Conclusion: Doubling the bed capacity in the emergency department and consequently other resources and capacity appropriately can solve the problem. This includes bed capacity requirement for both critically ill and less critically ill patients. Classification of ED internal sections based on severity of illness instead of medical specialty is another solution. PMID:26793727

Ethanol Distribution, Dispensing, and Use: Analysis of a Portion of the Biomass-to-Biofuels Supply Chain Using System Dynamics

PubMed Central

Vimmerstedt, Laura J.; Bush, Brian; Peterson, Steve

2012-01-01

The Energy Independence and Security Act of 2007 targets use of 36 billion gallons of biofuels per year by 2022. Achieving this may require substantial changes to current transportation fuel systems for distribution, dispensing, and use in vehicles. The U.S. Department of Energy and the National Renewable Energy Laboratory designed a system dynamics approach to help focus government action by determining what supply chain changes would have the greatest potential to accelerate biofuels deployment. The National Renewable Energy Laboratory developed the Biomass Scenario Model, a system dynamics model which represents the primary system effects and dependencies in the biomass-to-biofuels supply chain. The model provides a framework for developing scenarios and conducting biofuels policy analysis. This paper focuses on the downstream portion of the supply chain–represented in the distribution logistics, dispensing station, and fuel utilization, and vehicle modules of the Biomass Scenario Model. This model initially focused on ethanol, but has since been expanded to include other biofuels. Some portions of this system are represented dynamically with major interactions and feedbacks, especially those related to a dispensing station owner’s decision whether to offer ethanol fuel and a consumer’s choice whether to purchase that fuel. Other portions of the system are modeled with little or no dynamics; the vehicle choices of consumers are represented as discrete scenarios. This paper explores conditions needed to sustain an ethanol fuel market and identifies implications of these findings for program and policy goals. A large, economically sustainable ethanol fuel market (or other biofuel market) requires low end-user fuel price relative to gasoline and sufficient producer payment, which are difficult to achieve simultaneously. Other requirements (different for ethanol vs. other biofuel markets) include the need for infrastructure for distribution and dispensing and widespread use of high ethanol blends in flexible-fuel vehicles. PMID:22606230

Scaling up a CMS tier-3 site with campus resources and a 100 Gb/s network connection: what could go wrong?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wolf, Matthias; Woodard, Anna; Li, Wenzhao; Hurtado Anampa, Kenyi; Tovar, Benjamin; Brenner, Paul; Lannon, Kevin; Hildreth, Mike; Thain, Douglas

2017-10-01

The University of Notre Dame (ND) CMS group operates a modest-sized Tier-3 site suitable for local, final-stage analysis of CMS data. However, through the ND Center for Research Computing (CRC), Notre Dame researchers have opportunistic access to roughly 25k CPU cores of computing and a 100 Gb/s WAN network link. To understand the limits of what might be possible in this scenario, we undertook to use these resources for a wide range of CMS computing tasks from user analysis through large-scale Monte Carlo production (including both detector simulation and data reconstruction.) We will discuss the challenges inherent in effectively utilizing CRC resources for these tasks and the solutions deployed to overcome them.

Analysis of mutual assured destruction-like scenario with swarms of non-recallable autonomous robots

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Straub, Jeremy

2015-05-01

This paper considers the implications of the creation of an autonomous robotic fighting force without recall-ability which could serve as a deterrent to a `total war' magnitude attack. It discusses the technical considerations for this type of robotic system and the limited enhancements required to current technologies (particularly UAVs) needed to create such a system. Particular consideration is paid to how the introduction of this type of technology by one actor could create a need for reciprocal development. Also considered is the prospective utilization of this type of technology by non-state actors and the impact of this on state actors.

Large Deployable Reflector (LDR) system concept and technology definition study. Analysis of space station requirements for LDR

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Agnew, Donald L.; Vinkey, Victor F.; Runge, Fritz C.

1989-04-01

A study was conducted to determine how the Large Deployable Reflector (LDR) might benefit from the use of the space station for assembly, checkout, deployment, servicing, refurbishment, and technology development. Requirements that must be met by the space station to supply benefits for a selected scenario are summarized. Quantitative and qualitative data are supplied. Space station requirements for LDR which may be utilized by other missions are identified. A technology development mission for LDR is outlined and requirements summarized. A preliminary experiment plan is included. Space Station Data Base SAA 0020 and TDM 2411 are updated.

Large Deployable Reflector (LDR) system concept and technology definition study. Analysis of space station requirements for LDR

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Agnew, Donald L.; Vinkey, Victor F.; Runge, Fritz C.

1989-01-01

A study was conducted to determine how the Large Deployable Reflector (LDR) might benefit from the use of the space station for assembly, checkout, deployment, servicing, refurbishment, and technology development. Requirements that must be met by the space station to supply benefits for a selected scenario are summarized. Quantitative and qualitative data are supplied. Space station requirements for LDR which may be utilized by other missions are identified. A technology development mission for LDR is outlined and requirements summarized. A preliminary experiment plan is included. Space Station Data Base SAA 0020 and TDM 2411 are updated.

A two-objective optimization scheme for high-OSNR and low-power-consuming all-optical networks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Abedifar, Vahid; Mirjalili, Seyed Mohammad; Eshghi, Mohammad

2015-01-01

In all-optical networks the ASE noise of the utilized optical power amplifiers is a major impairment, making the OSNR to be the dominant parameter in QoS. In this paper, a two-objective optimization scheme using Multi-Objective Particle Swarm Optimization (MOPSO) is proposed to reach the maximum OSNR for all channels while the optical power consumed by EDFAs and lasers is minimized. Two scenarios are investigated: Scenario 1 and Scenario 2. The former scenario optimizes the gain values of a predefined number of EDFAs in physical links. The gain values may be different from each other. The latter scenario optimizes the gains value of EDFAs (which is supposed to be identical in each physical link) in addition to the number of EDFAs for each physical link. In both scenarios, the launch powers of the lasers are also taken into account during optimization process. Two novel encoding methods are proposed to uniquely represent the problem solutions. Two virtual demand sets are considered for evaluation of the performance of the proposed optimization scheme. The simulations results are described for both scenarios and both virtual demands.

SERA Scenarios of Early Market Fuel Cell Electric Vehicle Introductions: Modeling Framework, Regional Markets, and Station Clustering

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Bush, B.; Melaina, M.; Penev, M.

This report describes the development and analysis of detailed temporal and spatial scenarios for early market hydrogen fueling infrastructure clustering and fuel cell electric vehicle rollout using the Scenario Evaluation, Regionalization and Analysis (SERA) model. The report provides an overview of the SERA scenario development framework and discusses the approach used to develop the nationwidescenario.

Bayesian approaches for Integrated Water Resources Management. A Mediterranean case study.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gulliver, Zacarías; Herrero, Javier; José Polo, María

2013-04-01

This study presents the first steps of a short-term/mid-term analysis of the water resources in the Guadalfeo Basin, Spain. Within the basin the recent construction of the Rules dam has required the development of specific management tools and structures for this water system. The climate variability and the high water demand requirements for agriculture irrigation and tourism in this region may cause different controversies in the water management planning process. During the first stages of the study a rigorous analysis of the Water Framework Directive results was done in order to implement the legal requirements and the solutions for the gaps identified by the water authorities. In addition, the stakeholders and water experts identified the variables and geophysical processes for our specific water system case. These particularities need to be taken into account and are required to be reflected in the final computational tool. For decision making process purposes in a mid-term scale, a bayesian network has been used to quantify uncertainty which also provides a structure representation of probabilities, actions-decisions and utilities. On one hand by applying these techniques it is possible the inclusion of decision rules generating influence diagrams that provides clear and coherent semantics for the value of making an observation. On the other hand the utility nodes encode the stakeholders preferences which are measured on a numerical scale, choosing the action that maximizes the expected utility [MEU]. Also this graphical model allows us to identify gaps and project corrective measures, for example, formulating associated scenarios with different event hypotheses. In this sense conditional probability distributions of the seasonal water demand and waste water has been obtained between the established intervals. This fact will give to the regional water managers useful information for future decision making process. The final display is very visual and allows the user to understand quickly the model and the causal relationships between the existing nodes and variables. The input data were collected from the local monitoring networks and the unmonitored data has been generated with a physically based spatially distributed hydrological model WiMMed, which is validated and calibrated. For short-term purposes, pattern analysis has been applied for the management of extreme events scenarios, techniques as Bayesian Neural Networks (BNN) or Gaussian Processes (GP) giving accuracy on the predictions.

Life cycle environmental and economic implications of small drinking water system upgrades to reduce disinfection byproducts.

PubMed

Mo, Weiwei; Cornejo, Pablo K; Malley, James P; Kane, Tyler E; Collins, M Robin

2018-06-20

Many of the small drinking water systems in the US that utilize simple filtration and chlorine disinfection or chlorine disinfection alone are facing disinfection byproduct (DBP) noncompliance issues, which need immediate upgrades. In this study, four potential upgrade scenarios, namely the GAC, ozone, UV30, and UV186 scenarios, were designed for a typical small drinking water systems and compared in terms of embodied energy, carbon footprint, and life cycle cost. These scenarios are designed to either reduce the amount of DBP precursors using granular activated carbon filtration (the GAC scenario) or ozonation (the ozone scenario), or replace the chlorine disinfection with the UV disinfection at different intensities followed by chloramination (the UV30 and UV186 scenarios). The UV30 scenario was found to have the lowest embodied energy (417 GJ/year) and life cycle cost ($0.25 million US dollars), while the GAC scenario has the lowest carbon footprint (21 Mg CO 2 e/year). The UV186 scenario consistently presents the highest environmental and economic impacts. The major contributors of the economic and environmental impacts of individual scenarios also differ. Energy and/or material consumptions during the operation phase dominate the environmental impacts of the four scenarios, while the infrastructure investments have a noticeable contribution to the economic costs. The results are sensitive to changes in water quality. An increase of raw water quality, i.e., an increase in organic precursor content, could potentially result in the ozone scenario being the least energy intensive scenario, while a decrease of water quality could greatly reduce the overall competitiveness of the GAC scenario. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

AN ALTERNATIVE FUTURES ANALYSIS OF FARMINGTON BAY WETLANDS IN THE GREAT SALT LAKE

EPA Science Inventory

An Alternative Futures Analysis (AFA) was conducted to evaluate tradeoffs between landscape design scenarios and ecological services for Farmington Bay, Great Salt Lake (GSL), wetlands. Model scenarios included plan trend and conservation "futures" scenarios projected to 2030. ...

Cost-effectiveness and resource implications of aggressive action on TB in China, India and South Africa: a combined analysis of nine models

PubMed Central

Menzies, Nicolas A; Gomez, Gabriela B; Bozzani, Fiammetta; Chatterjee, Susmita; Foster, Nicola; Baena, Ines Garcia; Laurence, Yoko V; Qiang, Sun; Siroka, Andrew; Sweeney, Sedona; Verguet, Stéphane; Arinaminpathy, Nimalan; Azman, Andrew S; Bendavid, Eran; Chang, Stewart T; Cohen, Ted; Denholm, Justin T; Dowdy, David W; Eckhoff, Philip A; Goldhaber-Fiebert, Jeremy D; Handel, Andreas; Huynh, Grace H; Lalli, Marek; Lin, Hsien-Ho; Mandal, Sandip; McBryde, Emma S; Pandey, Surabhi; Salomon, Joshua A; Suen, Sze-chuan; Sumner, Tom; Trauer, James M; Wagner, Bradley G; Whalen, Christopher C; Wu, Chieh-Yin; Boccia, Delia; Chadha, Vineet K; Charalambous, Salome; Chin, Daniel P; Churchyard, Gavin; Daniels, Colleen; Dewan, Puneet; Ditiu, Lucica; Eaton, Jeffrey W; Grant, Alison D; Hippner, Piotr; Hosseini, Mehran; Mametja, David; Pretorius, Carel; Pillay, Yogan; Rade, Kiran; Sahu, Suvanand; Wang, Lixia; Houben, Rein MGJ; Kimerling, Michael E; White, Richard G; Vassall, Anna

2017-01-01

BACKGROUND The End TB Strategy sets global goals of reducing TB incidence and mortality by 50% and 75% respectively by 2025. We assessed resource requirements and cost-effectiveness of strategies to achieve these targets in China, India, and South Africa. METHODS We examined intervention scenarios developed in consultation with country stakeholders, which scaled-up existing interventions to high but feasible coverage by 2025. Nine independent TB modelling groups collaborated to estimate policy outcomes, and we costed each scenario by synthesizing service utilization estimates, empirical cost data, and expert opinion on implementation strategies. We estimated health impact and resource implications for 2016–2035, including patient-incurred costs. To assess resource requirements and cost-effectiveness, we compared scenarios to a base case representing continued current practice. FINDINGS Incremental TB service costs differed by scenario and country, and in some cases more than doubled current funding needs. In general, expanding TB services substantially reduced patient-incurred costs; and in India and China this produced net cost-savings for most interventions under a societal perspective. In all countries, expanding TB care access produced substantial health gains. Compared to current practice, most intervention approaches appeared highly cost-effective when compared to conventional cost-effectiveness thresholds. INTERPRETATION Expanding TB services appears cost-effective for high-burden countries and could generate substantial health and economic benefits for patients, though funding needs challenge affordability. Further work is required to determine the optimal intervention mix for each country. PMID:27720689

Creating a Scenario Suitable for Multiple Caregivers

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Doerr, Harold; Bacal, Kira; Hurst, Victor

2004-01-01

The HPS can be utilized for the training of a wide variety of caregivers, ranging from physicians to laypeople. Methods: A single scenario was developed and adapted for a number of clinical scenarios and operational environments, ranging from in-flight to the immediate postflight timeline. In this way, different caregivers, from astronauts to search and rescue forces to specialty-boarded physicians, could make use of a single clinical situation. Five crew medical officer analogs and sixty anesthesia residents, serving as flight surgeon analogs, and, were briefed on space medicine and physiology, then were exposed to the scenario and asked to manage the patient as if they were part of the in-flight or recovery team. Results: Basic themes, such as crisis resource management, were standard across the student audiences. Discussion: A single clinical script can easily be adapted for multiple uses.

National Coal Utilization Assessment. a preliminary assessment of the health and environmental effects of coal utilization in the Midwest. Volume I. Energy scenarios, technology characterizations, air and water resource impacts, and health effects

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Not Available

1977-01-01

This report presents an initial evaluation of the major health and environmental issues associated with increased coal use in the six midwestern states of Illinois, Indiana, Michigan, Minnesota, Ohio, and Wisconsin. Using an integrated assessment approach, the evaluation proceeds from a base-line scenario of energy demand and facility siting for 1975-2020. Emphasis is placed on impacts from coal extraction, land reclamation, coal combustion for electrical generation, and coal gasification. The range of potential impacts and constraints is illustrated by a second scenario that represents an expected upper limit for coal utilization in Illinois. The following are among the more significantmore » issues identified and evaluated in this study: If environmental and related issues can be resolved, coal will continue to be a major source of energy for the Midwest; existing sulfur emission constraints will increase use of western coal; the resource requirements and environmental impacts of coal utilization will require major significant environmental and economic tradeoffs in site selection; short-term (24-hr) ambient standards for sulfur dioxide will limit the sizes of coal facilities or require advanced control technologies; an impact on public health may result from long-range transport of airborne sulfur emissions from coal facilities in the Midwest; inadequately controlled effluents from coal gasification may cause violations of water-quality standards; the major ecological effects of coal extraction are from pre-mining and post-reclamation land use; and sulfur dioxide is the major potential contributor to effects on vegetation of atmospheric emissions from coal facilities.« less

Chloroplast microsatellites reveal colonization and metapopulation dynamics in the Canary Island pine

PubMed Central

Navascués, Miguel; Vaxevanidou, Zafeiro; González-Martínez, Santiago C; Climent, José; Gil, Luis; Emerson, Brent C

2006-01-01

Chloroplast microsatellites are becoming increasingly popular markers for population genetic studies in plants, but there has been little focus on their potential for demographic inference. In this work the utility of chloroplast microsatellites for the study of population expansions was explored. First, we investigated the power of mismatch distribution analysis and the FS test with coalescent simulations of different demographic scenarios. We then applied those methods to empirical data obtained for the Canary Island pine (Pinus canariensis). The results of the simulations showed that chloroplast microsatellites are sensitive to sudden population growth. The power of the FS test and accuracy of demographic parameter estimates, such as the time of expansion, were reduced proportionally to the level of homoplasy within the data. The analysis of Canary Island pine chloroplast microsatellite data indicated population expansions for almost all sample localities. Demographic expansions at the island level can be explained by the colonisation of the archipelago by the pine, while population expansions of different ages in different localities within an island appear to be the result of local extinctions and recolonisation dynamics. Comparable mitochondrial DNA sequence data from a parasite of P. canariensis, the weevil Brachyderes rugatus, supports this scenario, suggesting a key role for volcanism in the evolution of pine forest communities in the Canary Islands. PMID:16911194

Representation of Probability Density Functions from Orbit Determination using the Particle Filter

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Mashiku, Alinda K.; Garrison, James; Carpenter, J. Russell

2012-01-01

Statistical orbit determination enables us to obtain estimates of the state and the statistical information of its region of uncertainty. In order to obtain an accurate representation of the probability density function (PDF) that incorporates higher order statistical information, we propose the use of nonlinear estimation methods such as the Particle Filter. The Particle Filter (PF) is capable of providing a PDF representation of the state estimates whose accuracy is dependent on the number of particles or samples used. For this method to be applicable to real case scenarios, we need a way of accurately representing the PDF in a compressed manner with little information loss. Hence we propose using the Independent Component Analysis (ICA) as a non-Gaussian dimensional reduction method that is capable of maintaining higher order statistical information obtained using the PF. Methods such as the Principal Component Analysis (PCA) are based on utilizing up to second order statistics, hence will not suffice in maintaining maximum information content. Both the PCA and the ICA are applied to two scenarios that involve a highly eccentric orbit with a lower apriori uncertainty covariance and a less eccentric orbit with a higher a priori uncertainty covariance, to illustrate the capability of the ICA in relation to the PCA.

Biofuels via Fast Pyrolysis of Perennial Grasses: A Life Cycle Evaluation of Energy Consumption and Greenhouse Gas Emissions.

PubMed

Zaimes, George G; Soratana, Kullapa; Harden, Cheyenne L; Landis, Amy E; Khanna, Vikas

2015-08-18

A well-to-wheel (WTW) life cycle assessment (LCA) model is developed to evaluate the environmental profile of producing liquid transportation fuels via fast pyrolysis of perennial grasses: switchgrass and miscanthus. The framework established in this study consists of (1) an agricultural model used to determine biomass growth rates, agrochemical application rates, and other key parameters in the production of miscanthus and switchgrass biofeedstock; (2) an ASPEN model utilized to simulate thermochemical conversion via fast pyrolysis and catalytic upgrading of bio-oil to renewable transportation fuel. Monte Carlo analysis is performed to determine statistical bounds for key sustainability and performance measures including life cycle greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and Energy Return on Investment (EROI). The results of this work reveal that the EROI and GHG emissions (gCO2e/MJ-fuel) for fast pyrolysis derived fuels range from 1.52 to 2.56 and 22.5 to 61.0 respectively, over the host of scenarios evaluated. Further analysis reveals that the energetic performance and GHG reduction potential of fast pyrolysis-derived fuels are highly sensitive to the choice of coproduct scenario and LCA allocation scheme, and in select cases can change the life cycle carbon balance from meeting to exceeding the renewable fuel standard emissions reduction threshold for cellulosic biofuels.

Conversion of stranded waste-stream carbon and nutrients into value-added products via metabolically coupled binary heterotroph-photoautotroph system

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Bohutskyi, Pavlo; Kucek, Leo A.; Hill, Eric

Metabolic flexibility and robustness of phototroph- heterotroph co-cultures provide a flexible binary engineering platform for a variety of biotechnological and environmental applications. Here, we metabolically coupled a heterotrophic bacterium Bacillus subtilis with astaxanthin producing alga Haematococcus pluvialis and successfully applied this binary co-culture for conversion of the starch-rich waste stream into valuable astaxanthin-rich biomass. Importantly, the implemented system required less mass transfer of CO2 and O2 due to in-situ exchange between heterotroph and phototroph, which can contribute to reduction in energy consumption for wastewater treatment. In addition, the maximum reduction in chemical oxygen demand, total nitrogen and phosphorus reached 65%,more » 55% and 30%, respectively. The preliminary economic analysis indicated that realization of produced biomass with 0.8% astaxanthin content may generate annual revenues of $3.2M (baseline scenario) from treatment of wastewater (1,090 m3/day) from a potato processing plant. Moreover, the revenues may be increased up to $18.2M for optimized scenario with astaxanthin content in algae of 2%. This work demonstrates a successful proof-of-principle for conversion of waste carbon and nutrients into targeted value-added products through metabolic connection of heterotrophic and phototrophic organisms. Utilization of heterotrophic-algal binary cultures opens new perspectives for designing highly-efficient production processes for feedstock biomass production as well as allows utilization of variety of organic agricultural, chemical, or municipal wastes.« less

A Kinetic Model Describing Injury-Burden in Team Sports.

PubMed

Fuller, Colin W

2017-12-01

Injuries in team sports are normally characterised by the incidence, severity, and location and type of injuries sustained: these measures, however, do not provide an insight into the variable injury-burden experienced during a season. Injury burden varies according to the team's match and training loads, the rate at which injuries are sustained and the time taken for these injuries to resolve. At the present time, this time-based variation of injury burden has not been modelled. To develop a kinetic model describing the time-based injury burden experienced by teams in elite team sports and to demonstrate the model's utility. Rates of injury were quantified using a large eight-season database of rugby injuries (5253) and exposure (60,085 player-match-hours) in English professional rugby. Rates of recovery from injury were quantified using time-to-recovery analysis of the injuries. The kinetic model proposed for predicting a team's time-based injury burden is based on a composite rate equation developed from the incidence of injury, a first-order rate of recovery from injury and the team's playing load. The utility of the model was demonstrated by examining common scenarios encountered in elite rugby. The kinetic model developed describes and predicts the variable injury-burden arising from match play during a season of rugby union based on the incidence of match injuries, the rate of recovery from injury and the playing load. The model is equally applicable to other team sports and other scenarios.

Surface extra-vehicular activity emergency scenario management: Tools, procedures, and geologically related implications

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zea, Luis; Diaz, Alejandro R.; Shepherd, Charles K.; Kumar, Ranganathan

2010-07-01

Extra-vehicular activities (EVAs) are an essential part of human space exploration, but involve inherently dangerous procedures which can put crew safety at risk during a space mission. To help mitigate this risk, astronauts' training programs spend substantial attention on preparing for surface EVA emergency scenarios. With the help of two Mars Desert Research Station (MDRS) crews (61 and 65), wearing simulated spacesuits, the most important of these emergency scenarios were examined at three different types of locations that geologically and environmentally resemble lunar and Martian landscapes. These three platforms were analyzed geologically as well as topographically (utilizing a laser range finder with slope estimation capabilities and a slope determination software). Emergency scenarios were separated into four main groups: (1) suit issues, (2) general physiological, (3) attacks and (4) others. Specific tools and procedures were developed to address each scenario. The tools and processes were tested in the field under Mars-analog conditions with the suited subjects for feasibility and speed of execution.

[Scenario analysis--a method for long-term planning].

PubMed

Stavem, K

2000-01-10

Scenarios are known from the film industry, as detailed descriptions of films. This has given name to scenario analysis, a method for long term planning using descriptions of composite future pictures. This article is an introduction to the scenario method. Scenarios describe plausible, not necessarily probable, developments. They focus on problems and questions that decision makers must be aware of and prepare to deal with, and the consequences of alternative decisions. Scenarios are used in corporate and governmental planning, and they can be useful and complementary to traditional planning and extrapolation of past experience. The method is particularly useful in a rapidly changing world with shifting external conditions.

Cost-utility and budget impact analyses of the use of NEPA for chemotherapy-induced nausea and vomiting prophylaxis in Italy

PubMed Central

Restelli, Umberto; Saibene, Gabriella; Nardulli, Patrizia; Di Turi, Roberta; Bonizzoni, Erminio; Scolari, Francesca; Perrone, Tania; Croce, Davide; Celio, Luigi

2017-01-01

Objective To evaluate the efficiency of resources allocation and sustainability of the use of netupitant+palonosetron (NEPA) for chemotherapy-induced nausea and vomiting (CINV) prophylaxis assuming the Italian National Health Service (NHS) perspective. A published Markov model was adapted to assess the incremental cost-utility ratio of NEPA compared with aprepitant (APR) + palonosetron (PALO), fosaprepitant (fAPR) + PALO, APR + ondansetron (ONDA), fAPR + ONDA in patients receiving a highly emetogenic chemotherapy (HEC) and with APR + PALO and fAPR + PALO in patients receiving a moderately emetogenic chemotherapy (MEC). Setting Oncology hospital department in Italy. Methods A Markov model was used to determine the impact of NEPA on the budget of the Italian NHS on a 5-day time horizon, corresponding to the acute and delayed CINV prophylaxis phases. Direct medical costs considered were related to antiemetic drugs, adverse events management, CINV episodes management. Clinical and quality of life data referred to previously published works. The budget impact analysis considered the aforementioned therapies plus PALO alone (for HEC and MEC) on a 5-year time horizon, comparing two scenarios: one considering the use of NEPA and one not considering its use. Primary and secondary outcome measures Incremental cost per quality adjusted life year (QALY) and differential economic impact for the Italian NHS between the two scenarios considered. Results NEPA is more effective and less expensive (dominant) compared with APR + PALO (for HEC and MEC), fAPR + PALO (for HEC and MEC), APR + ONDA (for HEC), fAPR + ONDA (for HEC). The use of NEPA would lead to a 5-year cost decrease of €63.7 million (€42.7 million for HEC and €20.9 million for MEC). Conclusions NEPA allows an efficient allocation of resources for the Italian NHS and it is sustainable, leading to a cost decrease compared with a scenario which does not consider its use. PMID:28765126

Assessing economic impact of storm surge under projected sea level rise scenarios

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Del Angel, D. C.; Yoskowitz, D.

2017-12-01

Global sea level is expected to rise 0.2-2m by the year 2100. Rising sea level is expected to have a number of impacts such as erosion, saltwater intrusion, and decline in coastal wetlands; all which have direct and indirect socio-economic impact to coastal communities. By 2050, 25% of the world's population will reside within flood-prone areas. These statistics raise a concern for the economic cost that sea level and flooding has on the growing coastal communities. Economic cost of storm surge inundation and rising seas may include loss or damage to public facilities and infrastructure that may become temporarily inaccessible, as well as disruptions to business and services. This goal of this project is to assess economic impacts of storms under four SLR scenarios including low, intermediate-low, intermediate-high, and high (0.2m, 0.5m, 1.2m and 2m, respectively) in the Northern Gulf of Mexico region. To assess flooding impact on communities from storm surge, this project utilizes HAZUS-MH software - a Geographic Information System (GIS)-based modeling tool developed by the Federal Emergency Management Agency - to estimate physical, economic, and social impacts of natural disasters such as floods, earthquakes and hurricanes. The HAZUS database comes integrated with aggregate and site specific inventory which includes: demographic data, general building stock, agricultural statistics, vehicle inventory, essential facilities, transportation systems, utility systems (among other sensitive facilities). User-defined inundation scenarios will serve to identify assets at risk and damage estimates will be generated using the Depth Damage Function included in the HAZUS software. Results will focus on 3 communities in the Gulf and highlight changes in storm flood impact. This approach not only provides a method for economic impact assessment but also begins to create a link between ecosystem services and natural and nature-based features such as wetlands, beaches and dunes. Results from this analysis can provide actionable information needed for policy development and planning for coastal communities.

The NASA Hydrogen Energy Systems Technology study - A summary

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Laumann, E. A.

1976-01-01

This study is concerned with: hydrogen use, alternatives and comparisons, hydrogen production, factors affecting application, and technology requirements. Two scenarios for future use are explained. One is called the reference hydrogen use scenario and assumes continued historic uses of hydrogen along with additional use for coal gasification and liquefaction, consistent with the Ford technical fix baseline (1974) projection. The expanded scenario relies on the nuclear electric economy (1973) energy projection and assumes the addition of limited new uses such as experimental hydrogen-fueled aircraft, some mixing with natural gas, and energy storage by utilities. Current uses and supply of hydrogen are described, and the technological requirements for developing new methods of hydrogen production are discussed.

Developing Scenarios: Linking Environmental Scanning and Strategic Planning.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Whiteley, Meredith A.; And Others

1990-01-01

The multiple scenario analysis technique for organizational planning used by multinational corporations is adaptable for colleges and universities. Arizona State University launched a futures-based planning project using the Delphi technique and cross-impact analysis to produce three alternative scenarios (stable, turbulent, and chaotic) to expand…

Capital requirements for the US investor-owned electric utility industry, 1985-2005: Final report

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Kolbe, A.L.; Johnson, S.K.; O'Loughlin, M.P.

1988-06-01

In recent years, financial concerns have increasingly constrained the traditional utility planning focus, on engineering and economic tradeoffs. After a troubled period, however, many utilities have completed major construction programs and face fewer financial constraints in the near term, while other utilities hope to achieve this status shortly. At the same time, many utilities and regulatory commissions are reluctant to begin construction of large new plants, both because of current high reserve margins and because of past unhappy outcomes for ratepayers and investors when load growth proved lower than expected. This study examines the potential long-run financial constraints and risksmore » the electric utility industry faces as a result of the current incentives to delay the start of major new projects as long as possible. The study analyzes industry-wide financial and operating data from 1985 to 2005 under several scenarios. The findings suggest that if the future is no worse than postulated in our scenarios, total construction expenditures and external funding requirements should be manageable at the national level. Also, the study finds that the cost of delaying new construction /en dash/ although possibly significant /en dash/ will depend critically on the relative prices of coal and natural gas which actually occur. Thus this report concludes that the possibility of significant future financial constraints does not appear to be a problem at the national level. There is good reason to believe, however, that there could be a problem under certain adverse conditions for specific regions and for individual utilities. Given the relatively large amount of external funds likely to be needed by some utilities in those situations and the risks investors may perceive in supplying these funds, financial constraints may cause some construction delays. 23 refs., 21 figs., 6 tabs.« less

Flight Reconstruction of the Mars Pathfinder Disk-Gap-Band Parachute Drag Coefficient

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Desai, Prasun; Schofield, John T.; Lisano, Michael E.

2003-01-01

On July 4, 1997, the Mars Pathfinder (MPF) mission successfully landed on Mars. The entry, descent, and landing (EDL) scenario employed the use of a Disk-Gap-Band parachute design to decelerate the Lander. Flight reconstruction of the entry using MPF flight accelerometer data revealed that the MPF parachute decelerated faster than predicted. In the summer of 2003, the Mars Exploration Rover (MER) mission will send two Landers to the surface of Mars arriving in January 2004. The MER mission utilizes a similar EDL scenario and parachute design as that employed by MPF. As a result, characterizing the degree of underperformance of the MPF parachute system is critical for the MER EDL trajectory design. This paper provides an overview of the methodology utilized to estimate the MPF parachute drag coefficient as experienced on Mars.

Scenario-based water resources planning for utilities in the Lake Victoria region

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mehta, Vishal K.; Aslam, Omar; Dale, Larry; Miller, Norman; Purkey, David R.

Urban areas in the Lake Victoria (LV) region are experiencing the highest growth rates in Africa. As efforts to meet increasing demand accelerate, integrated water resources management (IWRM) tools provide opportunities for utilities and other stakeholders to develop a planning framework comprehensive enough to include short term (e.g. landuse change), as well as longer term (e.g. climate change) scenarios. This paper presents IWRM models built using the Water Evaluation And Planning (WEAP) decision support system, for three towns in the LV region - Bukoba (Tanzania), Masaka (Uganda), and Kisii (Kenya). Each model was calibrated under current system performance based on site visits, utility reporting and interviews. Projected water supply, demand, revenues and costs were then evaluated against a combination of climate, demographic and infrastructure scenarios up to 2050. Our results show that water supply in all three towns is currently infrastructure limited; achieving existing design capacity could meet most projected demand until 2020s in Masaka beyond which new supply and conservation strategies would be needed. In Bukoba, reducing leakages would provide little performance improvement in the short-term, but doubling capacity would meet all demands until 2050. In Kisii, major infrastructure investment is urgently needed. In Masaka, streamflow simulations show that wetland sources could satisfy all demand until 2050, but at the cost of almost no water downstream of the intake. These models demonstrate the value of IWRM tools for developing water management plans that integrate hydroclimatology-driven supply to demand projections on a single platform.

Automatic Association of Chats and Video Tracks for Activity Learning and Recognition in Aerial Video Surveillance

PubMed Central

Hammoud, Riad I.; Sahin, Cem S.; Blasch, Erik P.; Rhodes, Bradley J.; Wang, Tao

2014-01-01

We describe two advanced video analysis techniques, including video-indexed by voice annotations (VIVA) and multi-media indexing and explorer (MINER). VIVA utilizes analyst call-outs (ACOs) in the form of chat messages (voice-to-text) to associate labels with video target tracks, to designate spatial-temporal activity boundaries and to augment video tracking in challenging scenarios. Challenging scenarios include low-resolution sensors, moving targets and target trajectories obscured by natural and man-made clutter. MINER includes: (1) a fusion of graphical track and text data using probabilistic methods; (2) an activity pattern learning framework to support querying an index of activities of interest (AOIs) and targets of interest (TOIs) by movement type and geolocation; and (3) a user interface to support streaming multi-intelligence data processing. We also present an activity pattern learning framework that uses the multi-source associated data as training to index a large archive of full-motion videos (FMV). VIVA and MINER examples are demonstrated for wide aerial/overhead imagery over common data sets affording an improvement in tracking from video data alone, leading to 84% detection with modest misdetection/false alarm results due to the complexity of the scenario. The novel use of ACOs and chat messages in video tracking paves the way for user interaction, correction and preparation of situation awareness reports. PMID:25340453

Models to compare management options for a protogynous fish.

PubMed

Heppell, Selina S; Heppell, Scott A; Coleman, Felicia C; Koenig, Christopher C

2006-02-01

Populations of gag (Mycteroperca microlepis), a hermaphroditic grouper, have experienced a dramatic shift in sex ratio over the past 25 years due to a decline in older age classes. The highly female-skewed sex ratio can be predicted as a consequence of increased fishing mortality that truncates the age distribution, and raises some concern about the overall fitness of the population. Management efforts may need to be directed toward maintenance of sex ratio as well as stock size, with evaluations of recruitment based on sex ratio or male stock size in addition to the traditional female-based stock-recruitment relationship. We used two stochastic, age-structured models to heuristically compare the effects of reducing fishing mortality on different life history stages and the relative impact of reductions in fertilization rates that may occur with highly skewed sex ratios. Our response variables included population size, sex ratio, lost egg fertility, and female spawning stock biomass. Population growth rates were highest for scenarios that reduced mortality for female gag (nearshore closure), while improved sex ratios were obtained most quickly with spawning reserves. The effect of reduced fertility through sex ratio bias was generally low but depended on the management scenario employed. Our results demonstrate the utility of evaluation of fishery management scenarios through model analysis and simulation, the synergistic interaction of life history and response to changes in mortality rates, and the importance of defining management goals.

[Contrast-enhanced ultrasound for the characterization of incidental liver lesions - an economical evaluation in comparison with multi-phase computed tomography].

PubMed

Giesel, F L; Delorme, S; Sibbel, R; Kauczor, H-U; Krix, M

2009-06-01

The aim of the study was to conduct a cost-minimization analysis of contrast-enhanced ultrasound (CEUS) compared to multi-phase computed tomography (M-CT) as the diagnostic standard for diagnosing incidental liver lesions. Different scenarios of a cost-covering realization of CEUS in the ambulant sector in the general health insurance system of Germany were compared to the current cost situation. The absolute savings potential was estimated using different approaches for the calculation of the incidence of liver lesions which require further characterization. CEUS was the more cost-effective method in all scenarios in which CEUS examinations where performed at specialized centers (122.18-186.53 euro) compared to M-CT (223.19 euro). With about 40 000 relevant liver lesions per year, systematic implementation of CEUS would result in a cost savings of 4 m euro per year. However, the scenario of a cost-covering CEUS examination for all physicians who perform liver ultrasound would be the most cost-intensive approach (e. g., 407.87 euro at an average utilization of the ultrasound machine of 25 %, and a CEUS ratio of 5 %). A cost-covering realization of the CEUS method can result in cost savings in the German healthcare system. A centralized approach as proposed by the DEGUM should be targeted.

Automatic association of chats and video tracks for activity learning and recognition in aerial video surveillance.

PubMed

Hammoud, Riad I; Sahin, Cem S; Blasch, Erik P; Rhodes, Bradley J; Wang, Tao

2014-10-22

We describe two advanced video analysis techniques, including video-indexed by voice annotations (VIVA) and multi-media indexing and explorer (MINER). VIVA utilizes analyst call-outs (ACOs) in the form of chat messages (voice-to-text) to associate labels with video target tracks, to designate spatial-temporal activity boundaries and to augment video tracking in challenging scenarios. Challenging scenarios include low-resolution sensors, moving targets and target trajectories obscured by natural and man-made clutter. MINER includes: (1) a fusion of graphical track and text data using probabilistic methods; (2) an activity pattern learning framework to support querying an index of activities of interest (AOIs) and targets of interest (TOIs) by movement type and geolocation; and (3) a user interface to support streaming multi-intelligence data processing. We also present an activity pattern learning framework that uses the multi-source associated data as training to index a large archive of full-motion videos (FMV). VIVA and MINER examples are demonstrated for wide aerial/overhead imagery over common data sets affording an improvement in tracking from video data alone, leading to 84% detection with modest misdetection/false alarm results due to the complexity of the scenario. The novel use of ACOs and chat Sensors 2014, 14 19844 messages in video tracking paves the way for user interaction, correction and preparation of situation awareness reports.

Operational modeling system with dynamic-wave routing

USGS Publications Warehouse

Ishii, A.L.; Charlton, T.J.; Ortel, T.W.; Vonnahme, C.C.; ,

1998-01-01

A near real-time streamflow-simulation system utilizing continuous-simulation rainfall-runoff generation with dynamic-wave routing is being developed by the U.S. Geological Survey in cooperation with the Du Page County Department of Environmental Concerns for a 24-kilometer reach of Salt Creek in Du Page County, Illinois. This system is needed in order to more effectively manage the Elmhurst Quarry Flood Control Facility, an off-line stormwater diversion reservoir located along Salt Creek. Near real time simulation capabilities will enable the testing and evaluation of potential rainfall, diversion, and return-flow scenarios on water-surface elevations along Salt Creek before implementing diversions or return-flows. The climatological inputs for the continuous-simulation rainfall-runoff model, Hydrologic Simulation Program - FORTRAN (HSPF) are obtained by Internet access and from a network of radio-telemetered precipitation gages reporting to a base-station computer. The unit area runoff time series generated from HSPF are the input for the dynamic-wave routing model. Full Equations (FEQ). The Generation and Analysis of Model Simulation Scenarios (GENSCN) interface is used as a pre- and post-processor for managing input data and displaying and managing simulation results. The GENSCN interface includes a variety of graphical and analytical tools for evaluation and quick visualization of the results of operational scenario simulations and thereby makes it possible to obtain the full benefit of the fully distributed dynamic routing results.

Computer Simulation in Predicting Biochemical Processes and Energy Balance at WWTPs

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Drewnowski, Jakub; Zaborowska, Ewa; Hernandez De Vega, Carmen

2018-02-01

Nowadays, the use of mathematical models and computer simulation allow analysis of many different technological solutions as well as testing various scenarios in a short time and at low financial budget in order to simulate the scenario under typical conditions for the real system and help to find the best solution in design or operation process. The aim of the study was to evaluate different concepts of biochemical processes and energy balance modelling using a simulation platform GPS-x and a comprehensive model Mantis2. The paper presents the example of calibration and validation processes in the biological reactor as well as scenarios showing an influence of operational parameters on the WWTP energy balance. The results of batch tests and full-scale campaign obtained in the former work were used to predict biochemical and operational parameters in a newly developed plant model. The model was extended with sludge treatment devices, including anaerobic digester. Primary sludge removal efficiency was found as a significant factor determining biogas production and further renewable energy production in cogeneration. Water and wastewater utilities, which run and control WWTP, are interested in optimizing the process in order to save environment, their budget and decrease the pollutant emissions to water and air. In this context, computer simulation can be the easiest and very useful tool to improve the efficiency without interfering in the actual process performance.

The use of scenario analysis in local public health departments: alternative futures for strategic planning.

PubMed Central

Venable, J M; Ma, Q L; Ginter, P M; Duncan, W J

1993-01-01

Scenario analysis is a strategic planning technique used to describe and evaluate an organization's external environment. A methodology for conducting scenario analysis using the Jefferson County Department of Health and the national, State, and county issues confronting it is outlined. Key health care and organizational issues were identified using published sources, focus groups, questionnaires, and personal interviews. The most important of these issues were selected by asking health department managers to evaluate the issues according to their probability of occurrence and likely impact on the health department. The high-probability, high-impact issues formed the basis for developing scenario logics that constitute the story line holding the scenario together. The results were a set of plausible scenarios that aided in strategic planning, encouraged strategic thinking among managers, eliminated or reduced surprise about environmental changes, and improved managerial discussion and communication. PMID:8265754

Research on response spectrum of dam based on scenario earthquake

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, Xiaoliang; Zhang, Yushan

2017-10-01

Taking a large hydropower station as an example, the response spectrum based on scenario earthquake is determined. Firstly, the potential source of greatest contribution to the site is determined on the basis of the results of probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA). Secondly, the magnitude and epicentral distance of the scenario earthquake are calculated according to the main faults and historical earthquake of the potential seismic source zone. Finally, the response spectrum of scenario earthquake is calculated using the Next Generation Attenuation (NGA) relations. The response spectrum based on scenario earthquake method is less than the probability-consistent response spectrum obtained by PSHA method. The empirical analysis shows that the response spectrum of scenario earthquake considers the probability level and the structural factors, and combines the advantages of the deterministic and probabilistic seismic hazard analysis methods. It is easy for people to accept and provide basis for seismic engineering of hydraulic engineering.

Clinical utility of sperm DNA fragmentation testing: practice recommendations based on clinical scenarios

PubMed Central

Majzoub, Ahmad; Esteves, Sandro C.; Ko, Edmund; Ramasamy, Ranjith; Zini, Armand

2016-01-01

Sperm DNA fragmentation (SDF) has been generally acknowledged as a valuable tool for male fertility evaluation. While its detrimental implications on sperm function were extensively investigated, little is known about the actual indications for performing SDF analysis. This review delivers practice based recommendations on commonly encountered scenarios in the clinic. An illustrative description of the different SDF measurement techniques is presented. SDF testing is recommended in patients with clinical varicocele and borderline to normal semen parameters as it can better select varicocelectomy candidates. High SDF is also linked with recurrent spontaneous abortion (RSA) and can influence outcomes of different assisted reproductive techniques. Several studies have shown some benefit in using testicular sperm rather than ejaculated sperm in men with high SDF, oligozoospermia or recurrent in vitro fertilization (IVF) failure. Infertile men with evidence of exposure to pollutants can benefit from sperm DNA testing as it can help reinforce the importance of lifestyle modification (e.g., cessation of cigarette smoking, antioxidant therapy), predict fertility and monitor the patient’s response to intervention. PMID:28078226

Assessing the system value of optimal load shifting

DOE PAGES

Merrick, James; Ye, Yinyu; Entriken, Bob

2017-04-30

We analyze a competitive electricity market, where consumers exhibit optimal load shifting behavior to maximize utility and producers/suppliers maximize their profit under supply capacity constraints. The associated computationally tractable formulation can be used to inform market design or policy analysis in the context of increasing availability of the smart grid technologies that enable optimal load shifting. Through analytic and numeric assessment of the model, we assess the equilibrium value of optimal electricity load shifting, including how the value changes as more electricity consumers adopt associated technologies. For our illustrative numerical case, derived from the Current Trends scenario of the ERCOTmore » Long Term System Assessment, the average energy arbitrage value per ERCOT customer of optimal load shifting technologies is estimated to be $3 for the 2031 scenario year. We assess the sensitivity of this result to the flexibility of load, along with its relationship to the deployment of renewables. Finally, the model presented can also be a starting point for designing system operation infrastructure that communicates with the devices that schedule loads in response to price signals.« less

Assessing the system value of optimal load shifting

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Merrick, James; Ye, Yinyu; Entriken, Bob

We analyze a competitive electricity market, where consumers exhibit optimal load shifting behavior to maximize utility and producers/suppliers maximize their profit under supply capacity constraints. The associated computationally tractable formulation can be used to inform market design or policy analysis in the context of increasing availability of the smart grid technologies that enable optimal load shifting. Through analytic and numeric assessment of the model, we assess the equilibrium value of optimal electricity load shifting, including how the value changes as more electricity consumers adopt associated technologies. For our illustrative numerical case, derived from the Current Trends scenario of the ERCOTmore » Long Term System Assessment, the average energy arbitrage value per ERCOT customer of optimal load shifting technologies is estimated to be $3 for the 2031 scenario year. We assess the sensitivity of this result to the flexibility of load, along with its relationship to the deployment of renewables. Finally, the model presented can also be a starting point for designing system operation infrastructure that communicates with the devices that schedule loads in response to price signals.« less

IEEE 802.15.4 MAC with GTS transmission for heterogeneous devices with application to wheelchair body-area sensor networks.

PubMed

Shrestha, Bharat; Hossain, Ekram; Camorlinga, Sergio

2011-09-01

In wireless personal area networks, such as wireless body-area sensor networks, stations or devices have different bandwidth requirements and, thus, create heterogeneous traffics. For such networks, the IEEE 802.15.4 medium access control (MAC) can be used in the beacon-enabled mode, which supports guaranteed time slot (GTS) allocation for time-critical data transmissions. This paper presents a general discrete-time Markov chain model for the IEEE 802.15.4-based networks taking into account the slotted carrier sense multiple access with collision avoidance and GTS transmission phenomena together in the heterogeneous traffic scenario and under nonsaturated condition. For this purpose, the standard GTS allocation scheme is modified. For each non-identical device, the Markov model is solved and the average service time and the service utilization factor are analyzed in the non-saturated mode. The analysis is validated by simulations using network simulator version 2.33. Also, the model is enhanced with a wireless propagation model and the performance of the MAC is evaluated in a wheelchair body-area sensor network scenario.

The Price of Uncertainty in Security Games

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Grossklags, Jens; Johnson, Benjamin; Christin, Nicolas

In the realm of information security, lack of information about other users' incentives in a network can lead to inefficient security choices and reductions in individuals' payoffs. We propose, contrast and compare three metrics for measuring the price of uncertainty due to the departure from the payoff-optimal security outcomes under complete information. Per the analogy with other efficiency metrics, such as the price of anarchy, we define the price of uncertainty as the maximum discrepancy in expected payoff in a complete information environment versus the payoff in an incomplete information environment. We consider difference, payoffratio, and cost-ratio metrics as canonical nontrivial measurements of the price of uncertainty. We conduct an algebraic, numerical, and graphical analysis of these metrics applied to different well-studied security scenarios proposed in prior work (i.e., best shot, weakest-link, and total effort). In these scenarios, we study how a fully rational expert agent could utilize the metrics to decide whether to gather information about the economic incentives of multiple nearsighted and naïve agents. We find substantial differences between the various metrics and evaluate the appropriateness for security choices in networked systems.

FBK Optical Data Association in a Multi-Hypothesis Framework with Maneuvers

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Faber, W. R.; Hussein, I. I.; Kent, J. T.; Bhattacharjee, S. Jah, M. K.

In Space Situational Awareness (SSA), one may encounter scenarios where the measurements received at a certain time do not correlate to a known Resident Space Object (RSO). Without information that uniquely assigns the measurement to a particular RSO there can be no certainty on the identity of the object. It could be that the measurement was produced by clutter or perhaps a newly birthed RSO. It is also a possibility that the measurement came from a previously known object that maneuvered away from its predicted location. Typically, tracking methods tend to associate uncorrelated measurements to new objects and wait for more information to determine the true RSO population. This can lead to the loss of object custody. The goal of this paper is to utilize a multiple hypothesis framework coupled with some knowledge of RSO maneuvers that allows the user to maintain object custody in scenarios with uncorrelated optical measurement returns. This is achieved by fitting a Fisher-Bingham-Kent type distribution to the hypothesized maneuvers for accurate data association using directional discriminant analysis.

Trade-offs between carbon, water, soil and food in Guanzhong-Tianshui economic region from remotely sensed data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhou, Z. X.; Li, Jing; Guo, Z. Z.; Li, Ting

2017-06-01

It is important to ensure the efficient supply of land ecosystem services when the competition for land is increasing. In this paper we simulated the ecosystem services function under two scenarios, including carbon sequestration, agricultural production, water and soil conservation, and analyzed the tradeoffs among these ecosystem services in Guanzhong-Tianshui region from 2000 to 2050. Then the productive efficiency of ecosystem services was assessed under two scenarios and compared their production possibility frontiers (PPFs). Through the simulation analysis of their optimum allocation, we also provide the scientific evidence to the development of ecosystem. The natural rules were revealed that if these trade-offs emphasize the potential to sequester carbon in the landscape, along with very little loss of agricultural production, much more water is used. It could be identified to adhere to combine the exploitation and utilization, remediation and protection for land to promote the effective circulation of land eco-system, and meet the society's preferences for land ecosystem service function by adjusting the use of multiple eco-services.

Scenario Analysis of Soil and Water Conservation in Xiejia Watershed Based on Improved CSLE Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liu, Jieying; Yu, Ming; Wu, Yong; Huang, Yao; Nie, Yawen

2018-01-01

According to the existing research results and related data, use the scenario analysis method, to evaluate the effects of different soil and water conservation measures on soil erosion in a small watershed. Based on the analysis of soil erosion scenarios and model simulation budgets in the study area, it is found that all scenarios simulated soil erosion rates are lower than the present situation of soil erosion in 2013. Soil and water conservation measures are more effective in reducing soil erosion than soil and water conservation biological measures and soil and water conservation tillage measures.

Cost-Effectiveness of Ibrutinib Compared With Obinutuzumab With Chlorambucil in Untreated Chronic Lymphocytic Leukemia Patients With Comorbidities in the United Kingdom.

PubMed

Sinha, Richa; Redekop, William Ken

2018-02-01

Ibrutinib shows superiority over obinutuzumab with chlorambucil (G-Clb) in untreated patients with chronic lymphocytic leukemia with comorbidities who cannot tolerate fludarabine-based therapy. However, ibrutinib is relatively more expensive than G-Clb. In this study we evaluated the cost-effectiveness of ibrutinib compared with G-Clb from the United Kingdom (UK) health care perspective. A 3-state semi-Markov model was parameterized to estimate the lifetime costs and benefits associated with ibrutinib compared with G-Clb as first-line treatment. Idelalisib with rituximab was considered as second-line treatment. Unit costs were derived from standard sources, (dis)utilities from UK elicitation studies, progression-free survival, progression, and death from clinical trials, and postprogression survival and background mortality from published sources. Additional analyses included threshold analyses with ibrutinib and idelalisib at various discount rates, and scenario analysis with ibrutinib as second-line treatment after G-Clb. An average gain of 1.49 quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs) was estimated for ibrutinib compared with G-Clb at an average additional cost of £112,835 per patient. To be cost-effective as per the UK thresholds, ibrutinib needs to be discounted at 30%, 40%, and 50% if idelalisib is discounted at 0%, 25%, and 50% respectively. The incremental cost-effectiveness ratio was £75,648 and £-143,279 per QALY gained for the base-case and scenario analyses, respectively. Sensitivity analyses showed the robustness of the results. As per base-case analyses, an adequate discount on ibrutinib is required to make it cost-effective as per the UK thresholds. The scenario analysis substantiates ibrutinib's cost-savings for the UK National Health Services and advocates patient's access to ibrutinib in the UK. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Evaluating Opportunities to Improve Material and Energy Impacts in Commodity Supply Chains.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Hanes, Rebecca J.; Carpenter, Alberta

When evaluated at the process level, next-generation technologies may be more energy and emissions intensive than current technology. However, many advanced technologies have the potential to reduce material and energy consumption in upstream or downstream processing stages. In order to fully understand the benefits and consequences of technology deployment, next-generation technologies should be evaluated in context, as part of a supply chain. This work presents the Material Flows through Industry (MFI) scenario modeling tool. The MFI tool is a cradle-to-gate linear network model of the U.S. industrial sector that can model a wide range of manufacturing scenarios, including changes inmore » production technology, increases in industrial energy efficiency, and substitution between functionally equivalent materials. The MFI tool was developed to perform supply chain scale analyses in order to quantify the impacts and benefits of next-generation technologies and materials at that scale. For the analysis presented in this paper, the MFI tool is utilized to explore a case study comparing a steel supply chain to the supply chains of several functionally equivalent materials. Several of the alternatives to the baseline steel supply chain include next-generation production technologies and materials. Results of the case study show that aluminum production scenarios can out-perform the steel supply chain by using either an advanced smelting technology or an increased aluminum recycling rate. The next-generation material supply chains do not perform as well as either aluminum or steel, but may offer additional use phase reductions in energy and emissions that are outside the scope of the MFI tool. Future work will combine results from the MFI tool with a use phase analysis.« less

[Estimation of nonpoint source pollutant loads and optimization of the best management practices (BMPs) in the Zhangweinan River basin].

PubMed

Xu, Hua-Shan; Xu, Zong-Xue; Liu, Pin

2013-03-01

One of the key techniques in establishing and implementing TMDL (total maximum daily load) is to utilize hydrological model to quantify non-point source pollutant loads, establish BMPs scenarios, reduce non-point source pollutant loads. Non-point source pollutant loads under different years (wet, normal and dry year) were estimated by using SWAT model in the Zhangweinan River basin, spatial distribution characteristics of non-point source pollutant loads were analyzed on the basis of the simulation result. During wet years, total nitrogen (TN) and total phosphorus (TP) accounted for 0.07% and 27.24% of the total non-point source pollutant loads, respectively. Spatially, agricultural and residential land with steep slope are the regions that contribute more non-point source pollutant loads in the basin. Compared to non-point source pollutant loads with those during the baseline period, 47 BMPs scenarios were set to simulate the reduction efficiency of different BMPs scenarios for 5 kinds of pollutants (organic nitrogen, organic phosphorus, nitrate nitrogen, dissolved phosphorus and mineral phosphorus) in 8 prior controlled subbasins. Constructing vegetation type ditch was optimized as the best measure to reduce TN and TP by comparing cost-effective relationship among different BMPs scenarios, and the costs of unit pollutant reduction are 16.11-151.28 yuan x kg(-1) for TN, and 100-862.77 yuan x kg(-1) for TP, which is the most cost-effective measure among the 47 BMPs scenarios. The results could provide a scientific basis and technical support for environmental protection and sustainable utilization of water resources in the Zhangweinan River basin.

JET DT Scenario Extrapolation and Optimization with METIS

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Urban, Jakub; Jaulmes, Fabien; Artaud, Jean-Francois

2017-10-01

Prospective JET (Joint European Torus) DT operation scenarios are modelled by the fast integrated code METIS. METIS combines scaling laws, e.g. for global and pedestal energy or density peaking, with simplified transport and source models, while retaining fundamental nonlinear couplings, in particular in the fusion power. We have tuned METIS parameters to match JET-ILW high performance experiments, including baseline and hybrid. Based on recent observations, we assume a weaker input power scaling than IPB98 and a 10% confinement improvement due to the higher ion mass. The rapidity of METIS is utilized to scan the performance of JET DT scenarios with respect to fundamental parameters, such as plasma current, magnetic field, density or heating power. Simplified, easily parameterized waveforms are used to study the effect the ramp-up speed or heating timing. Finally, an efficient Bayesian optimizer is employed to seek the most performant scenarios in terms of the fusion power or gain.

Promoting Interactions Between Humans and Robots Using Robotic Emotional Behavior.

PubMed

Ficocelli, Maurizio; Terao, Junichi; Nejat, Goldie

2016-12-01

The objective of a socially assistive robot is to create a close and effective interaction with a human user for the purpose of giving assistance. In particular, the social interaction, guidance, and support that a socially assistive robot can provide a person can be very beneficial to patient-centered care. However, there are a number of research issues that need to be addressed in order to design such robots. This paper focuses on developing effective emotion-based assistive behavior for a socially assistive robot intended for natural human-robot interaction (HRI) scenarios with explicit social and assistive task functionalities. In particular, in this paper, a unique emotional behavior module is presented and implemented in a learning-based control architecture for assistive HRI. The module is utilized to determine the appropriate emotions of the robot to display, as motivated by the well-being of the person, during assistive task-driven interactions in order to elicit suitable actions from users to accomplish a given person-centered assistive task. A novel online updating technique is used in order to allow the emotional model to adapt to new people and scenarios. Experiments presented show the effectiveness of utilizing robotic emotional assistive behavior during HRI scenarios.

Complexity associated with the optimisation of capability options in military operations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pincombe, A.; Bender, A.; Allen, G.

2005-12-01

In the context of a military operation, even if the intended actions, the geographic location, and the capabilities of the opposition are known, there are still some critical uncertainties that could have a major impact on the effectiveness of a given set of capabilities. These uncertainties include unpredictable events and the response alternatives that are available to the command and control elements of the capability set. They greatly complicate any a priori mathematical description. In a forecasting approach, the most likely future might be chosen and a solution sought that is optimal for that case. With scenario analysis, futures are proposed on the basis of critical uncertainties and the option that is most robust is chosen. We use scenario analysis but our approach is different in that we focus on the complexity and use the coupling between scenarios and options to create information on ideal options. The approach makes use of both soft and hard operations research methods, with subject matter expertise being used to define plausible responses to scenarios. In each scenario, uncertainty affects only a subset of the system-inherent variables and the variables that describe system-environment interactions. It is this scenario-specific reduction of variables that makes the problem mathematically tractable. The process we define is significantly different to existing scenario analysis processes, so we have named it adversarial scenario analysis. It can be used in conjunction with other methods, including recent improvements to the scenario analysis process. To illustrate the approach, we undertake a tactical level scenario analysis for a logistics problem that is defined by a network, expected throughputs to end users, the transport capacity available, the infrastructure at the nodes and the capacities of roads, stocks etc. The throughput capacity, e.g. the effectiveness, of the system relies on all of these variables and on the couplings between them. The system is initially in equilibrium for a given level of demand. However, different, and simpler, solutions emerge as the balance of couplings and the importance of variables change. The scenarios describe such changes in conditions. For each scenario it was possible to define measures that describe the differences between options. As with agent-based distillations, the solution is essentially qualitative and exploratory, bringing awareness of possible future difficulties and of the capabilities that are necessary if we are to deal successfully with those difficulties.

Comparison of telemedicine with in-person care for follow-up after elective neurosurgery: results of a cost-effectiveness analysis of 1200 patients using patient-perceived utility scores.

PubMed

Thakar, Sumit; Rajagopal, Niranjana; Mani, Subramaniyan; Shyam, Maya; Aryan, Saritha; Rao, Arun S; Srinivasa, Rakshith; Mohan, Dilip; Hegde, Alangar S

2018-05-01

OBJECTIVE The utility of telemedicine (TM) in neurosurgery is underexplored, with most of the studies relating to teletrauma or telestroke programs. In this study, the authors evaluate the cost-effectiveness of TM consultations for follow-up care of a large population of patients who underwent neurosurgical procedures. METHODS A decision-analytical model was used to assess the cost-effectiveness of TM for elective post-neurosurgical care patients from a predominantly nonurban cohort in West Bengal, India. The model compared TM care via a nodal center in West Bengal to routine, in-person, per-episode care at the provider site in Bangalore, India. Cost and effectiveness data relating to 1200 patients were collected for a 52-month period. The effectiveness of TM care was calculated using efficiency in terms of the percentage of successful TM consultations, as well as patient-perceived utility values for overall experience of the type of health care access that they received. Incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) analysis was done using the 4-quadrant charting of the cost-effectiveness plane. One-way sensitivity and tornado analyses were performed to identify thresholds where the care strategy would change. RESULTS The overall utility for the 3 TM scenarios was found to be higher (89%) than for the utility of routine care (80%). TM was found to be more cost-effective (Indian rupee [INR] 2630 per patient) compared to routine care (INR 6848 per patient). The TM strategy "dominates" that of routine care by being more effective and less expensive (ICER value of -39,400 INR/unit of effectiveness). Sensitivity analysis revealed that cost-effectiveness of TM was most sensitive to changes in the number of TM patients, utility and success rate of TM, and travel distance to the TM center. CONCLUSIONS TM care dominates the in-person care strategy by providing more effective and less expensive follow-up care for a remote post-neurosurgical care population in India. In the authors' setting, this benefit of TM is sustainable even if half the TM consultations turn out to be unsuccessful. The viability of TM as a cost-effective care protocol is attributed to a combination of factors, like an adequate patient volume utilizing TM, patient utility, success rate of TM, and the patient travel distance.

Potential of geographical variation analysis for realigning providers to value-based care. ECHO case study on lower-value indications of C-section in five European countries.

PubMed

García-Armesto, Sandra; Angulo-Pueyo, Ester; Martínez-Lizaga, Natalia; Mateus, Céu; Joaquim, Inês; Bernal-Delgado, Enrique

2015-02-01

Although C-section is a highly effective procedure, literature abounds with evidence of overuse and particularly misuse, in lower-value indications such as low-risk deliveries. This study aims to quantify utilization of C-section in low-risk cases, mapping out areas showing excess-usage in each country and to estimate excess-expenditure as a proxy of the opportunity cost borne by healthcare systems. Observational, ecologic study on deliveries in 913 sub-national administrative areas of five European countries (Denmark, England, Portugal, Slovenia and Spain) from 2002 to 2009. The study includes a cross-section analysis with 2009 data and a time-trend analysis for the whole period. Main endpoints: age-standardized utilization rates of C-section in low-risk pregnancies and deliveries per 100 deliveries. Secondary endpoints: Estimated excess-cases per geographical unit of analysis in two scenarios of minimized utilization. C-section is widely used in all examined countries (ranging from 19% of Slovenian deliveries to 33% of deliveries in Portugal). With the exception of Portugal, there are no systematic variations in intensity of use across areas in the same country. Cross-country comparison of lower-value C-section leaves Denmark with 10% and Portugal with 2%, the highest and lowest. Such behaviour was stable over the period of analysis. Within each country, the scattered geographical patterns of use intensity speak for local drivers playing a major role within the national trend. The analysis conducted suggests plenty of room for enhancing value in obstetric care and equity in women's access to such within the countries studied. The analysis of geographical variations in lower-value care can constitute a powerful screening tool. © The Author 2015. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the European Public Health Association. All rights reserved.

Desktop microsimulation: a tool to improve efficiency in the medical office practice.

PubMed

Montgomery, James B; Linville, Beth A; Slonim, Anthony D

2013-01-01

Because the economic crisis in the United States continues to have an impact on healthcare organizations, industry leaders must optimize their decision making. Discrete-event computer simulation is a quality tool with a demonstrated track record of improving the precision of analysis for process redesign. However, the use of simulation to consolidate practices and design efficiencies into an unfinished medical office building was a unique task. A discrete-event computer simulation package was used to model the operations and forecast future results for four orthopedic surgery practices. The scenarios were created to allow an evaluation of the impact of process change on the output variables of exam room utilization, patient queue size, and staff utilization. The model helped with decisions regarding space allocation and efficient exam room use by demonstrating the impact of process changes in patient queues at check-in/out, x-ray, and cast room locations when compared to the status quo model. The analysis impacted decisions on facility layout, patient flow, and staff functions in this newly consolidated practice. Simulation was found to be a useful tool for process redesign and decision making even prior to building occupancy. © 2011 National Association for Healthcare Quality.

An econometric analysis of changes in arable land utilization using multinomial logit model in Pinggu district, Beijing, China.

PubMed

Xu, Yueqing; McNamara, Paul; Wu, Yanfang; Dong, Yue

2013-10-15

Arable land in China has been decreasing as a result of rapid population growth and economic development as well as urban expansion, especially in developed regions around cities where quality farmland quickly disappears. This paper analyzed changes in arable land utilization during 1993-2008 in the Pinggu district, Beijing, China, developed a multinomial logit (MNL) model to determine spatial driving factors influencing arable land-use change, and simulated arable land transition probabilities. Land-use maps, as well as social-economic and geographical data were used in the study. The results indicated that arable land decreased significantly between 1993 and 2008. Lost arable land shifted into orchard, forestland, settlement, and transportation land. Significant differences existed for arable land transitions among different landform areas. Slope, elevation, population density, urbanization rate, distance to settlements, and distance to roadways were strong drivers influencing arable land transition to other uses. The MNL model was proved effective for predicting transition probabilities in land use from arable land to other land-use types, thus can be used for scenario analysis to develop land-use policies and land-management measures in this metropolitan area. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Around Marshall

NASA Image and Video Library

1993-09-15

Virtual Reality (VR) can provide cost effective methods to design and evaluate components and systems for maintenance and refurbishment operations. Marshall SPace Flight Center (MSFC) is begirning to utilize VR for design analysis in the X-34 experimental reusable space vehicle. Analysts at MSFC's Computer Applications and Virtual Environments (CAVE) used Head Mounted Displays (HMD) (pictured), spatial trackers and gesture inputs as a means to animate or inhabit a properly sized virtual human model. These models are used in a VR scenario as a way to determine functionality of space and maintenance requirements for the virtual X-34. The primary functions of the virtual X-34 mockup is to support operations development and design analysis for engine removal, the engine compartment and the aft fuselage. This capability provides general visualization support to engineers and designers at MSFC and to the System Design Freeze Review at Orbital Sciences Corporation (OSC).

Around Marshall

NASA Image and Video Library

1993-12-15

Virtual Reality (VR) can provide cost effective methods to design and evaluate components and systems for maintenance and refurbishment operations. Marshall Spce Flight Center (MSFC) is begirning to utilize VR for design analysis in the X-34 experimental reusable space vehicle. Analysts at MSFC's Computer Applications and Virtual Environments (CAVE) used Head Mounted Displays (HMD) (pictured), spatial trackers and gesture inputs as a means to animate or inhabit a properly sized virtual human model. These models are used in a VR scenario as a way to determine functionality of space and maintenance requirements for the virtual X-34. The primary functions of the virtual X-34 mockup is to support operations development and design analysis for engine removal, the engine compartment and the aft fuselage. This capability provides general visualization support to engineers and designers at MSFC and to the System Design Freeze Review at Orbital Sciences Corporation (OSC).

Analysis of In-Route Wireless Charging for the Shuttle System at Zion National Park

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Meintz, Andrew; Prohaska, Robert; Konan, Arnaud

System right-sizing is critical to implementation of wireless power transfer (WPT) for electric vehicles (EVs). This study will analyze potential WPT scenarios for the electrification of shuttle buses at Zion National Park utilizing a modelling tool developed by NREL called WPTSim. This tool uses second-by-second speed, location, and road grade data from the conventional shuttles in operation to simulate the incorporation of WPT at fine granularity. Vehicle power and state of charge are simulated over the drive cycle to evaluate potential system designs. The required battery capacity is determined based on the rated power at a variable number of chargingmore » locations. The outcome of this work is an analysis of the design tradeoffs for the electrification of the shuttle fleet with wireless charging versus conventional overnight charging.« less

2016 Standard Scenarios Report: A U.S. Electricity Sector Outlook

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Cole, Wesley; Mai, Trieu; Logan, Jeffrey

The Standard Scenarios and this associated report, which are now in their second year, present an examination of some of the key aspects of the change occurring, or anticipated to occur, in the power sector over the next several decades. The Standard Scenarios consist of 18 power sector scenarios which have been projected using the National Renewable Energy Laboratory's (NREL's) Regional Energy Deployment System (ReEDS) long-term capacity expansion model and the dGen rooftop PV diffusion model. The purpose of the Standard Scenarios and this associated report is to provide context, discussion, and data to inform stakeholder decision-making regarding the futuremore » direction of U.S. power sector. As an extension to this report, the Standard Scenario outputs are presented in a downloadable format online using the Standard Scenarios' Results Viewer at http://en.openei.org/apps/reeds/. This report reflects high-level conclusions and analysis, whereas the Standard Scenarios' Results Viewer includes the scenario results that can be used for more in-depth analysis.« less

Locomotive cab occupant protection

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2003-11-15

The effectiveness of fitting a locomotive cab with a passive inflatable restraint system utilizing inflatable structures, and interior padding to protect the operator has been evaluated for the in-line collision scenario. It is a challenge to design ...

Non Directed Utilization of a Hand Held Device: How Does a First Year University Engineering Student Use an iTouch?

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Serapiglia, Anthony; Serapiglia, Constance

2011-01-01

Handheld computer technology has been available for decades. The college student today has been exposed to various types of handheld computing devices for most of their lives yet there is little known about how a college student utilizes this type of technology tool as a learning advantage to an anytime or place scenario. This study looks at how…

From clinically relevant outcome measures to quality of life in epilepsy: A time trade-off study.

PubMed

de Kinderen, Reina J A; Wijnen, Ben F M; van Breukelen, Gerard; Postulart, Debby; Majoie, Marian H J M; Aldenkamp, Albert P; Evers, Silvia M A A

2016-09-01

A proposed method for bridging the gap between clinically relevant epilepsy outcome measures and quality-adjusted life years is to derive utility scores for epilepsy health states. The aim of this study is to develop such a utility-function and to investigate the impact of the epilepsy outcome measures on utility. Health states, based on clinically important epilepsy attributes (e.g. seizure frequency, seizure severity, side-effects), were valued by a sample of the Dutch population (N=525) based on the time trade-off method. In addition to standard demographics, every participant was asked to rate 10 or 11 different health state scenarios. A multilevel regression analysis was performed to account for the nested structure of the data. Results show that the best health state (no seizures and no side-effects) is estimated at 0.89 and the worst state (seizures type 5 twice a day plus severe side-effects) at 0.22 (scale: 0-1). An increase in seizure frequency, occurrence of side-effects, and seizure severity were all significantly associated with lower utility values. Furthermore, seizure severity has the largest impact on quality of life compared with seizure frequency and side-effects. This study provides a utility-function for transforming clinically relevant epilepsy outcome measures into utility estimates. We advise using our utility-function in economic evaluations, when quality of life is not directly measured in a study and hence, no health state utilities are available, or when there is convincing empirical evidence of the insensitivity of a generic quality-of-life-instrument within epilepsy. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Toward Interactive Scenario Analysis and Exploration

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Gayle, Thomas R.; Summers, Kenneth Lee; Jungels, John

2015-01-01

As Modeling and Simulation (M&S) tools have matured, their applicability and importance have increased across many national security challenges. In particular, they provide a way to test how something may behave without the need to do real world testing. However, current and future changes across several factors including capabilities, policy, and funding are driving a need for rapid response or evaluation in ways that many M&S tools cannot address. Issues around large data, computational requirements, delivery mechanisms, and analyst involvement already exist and pose significant challenges. Furthermore, rising expectations, rising input complexity, and increasing depth of analysis will only increasemore » the difficulty of these challenges. In this study we examine whether innovations in M&S software coupled with advances in ''cloud'' computing and ''big-data'' methodologies can overcome many of these challenges. In particular, we propose a simple, horizontally-scalable distributed computing environment that could provide the foundation (i.e. ''cloud'') for next-generation M&S-based applications based on the notion of ''parallel multi-simulation''. In our context, the goal of parallel multi- simulation is to consider as many simultaneous paths of execution as possible. Therefore, with sufficient resources, the complexity is dominated by the cost of single scenario runs as opposed to the number of runs required. We show the feasibility of this architecture through a stable prototype implementation coupled with the Umbra Simulation Framework [6]. Finally, we highlight the utility through multiple novel analysis tools and by showing the performance improvement compared to existing tools.« less

Designing shear-thinning

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nelson, Arif Z.; Ewoldt, Randy H.

2017-11-01

Design in fluid mechanics often focuses on optimizing geometry (airfoils, surface textures, microfluid channels), but here we focus on designing fluids themselves. The dramatically shear-thinning ``yield-stress fluid'' is currently the most utilized non-Newtonian fluid phenomenon. These rheologically complex materials, which undergo a reversible transition from solid-like to liquid-like fluid flow, are utilized in pedestrian products such as paint and toothpaste, but also in emerging applications like direct-write 3D printing. We present a paradigm for yield-stress fluid design that considers constitutive model representation, material property databases, available predictive scaling laws, and the many ways to achieve a yield stress fluid, flipping the typical structure-to-rheology analysis to become the inverse: rheology-to-structure with multiple possible materials as solutions. We describe case studies of 3D printing inks and other flow scenarios where designed shear-thinning enables performance remarkably beyond that of Newtonian fluids. This work was supported by Wm. Wrigley Jr. Company and the National Science Foundation under Grant No. CMMI-1463203.

Mission to Mars using integrated propulsion concepts: considerations, opportunities, and strategies.

PubMed

Accettura, Antonio G; Bruno, Claudio; Casotto, Stefano; Marzari, Francesco

2004-04-01

The aim of this paper is to evaluate the feasibility of a mission to Mars using the Integrated Propulsion Systems (IPS) which means to couple Nuclear-MPD-ISPU propulsion systems. In particular both mission analysis and propulsion aspects are analyzed together with technological aspects. Identifying possible mission scenarios will lead to the study of possible strategies for Mars Exploration and also of methods for reducing cost. As regard to IPS, the coupling between Nuclear Propulsion (Rubbia's engine) and Superconductive MPD propulsion is considered for the Earth-Mars trajectories: major emphasis is given to the advantages of such a system. The In Situ Resource Utilization (ISRU) concerns on-Mars operations; In Situ Propellant Utilization (ISPU) is foreseen particularly for LOX-CH4 engines for Mars Ascent Vehicles and this possibility is analyzed from a technological point of view. Tether Systems are also considered during interplanetary trajectories and as space elevators on Mars orbit. Finally strategic considerations associated to this mission are considered also. c2003 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Legal, institutional, and political issues in transportation of nuclear materials at the back end of the LWR nuclear fuel cycle

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Lippek, H.E.; Schuller, C.R.

1979-03-01

A study was conducted to identify major legal and institutional problems and issues in the transportation of spent fuel and associated processing wastes at the back end of the LWR nuclear fuel cycle. (Most of the discussion centers on the transportation of spent fuel, since this activity will involve virtually all of the legal and institutional problems likely to be encountered in moving waste materials, as well.) Actions or approaches that might be pursued to resolve the problems identified in the analysis are suggested. Two scenarios for the industrial-scale transportation of spent fuel and radioactive wastes, taken together, high-light mostmore » of the major problems and issues of a legal and institutional nature that are likely to arise: (1) utilizing the Allied General Nuclear Services (AGNS) facility at Barnwell, SC, as a temporary storage facility for spent fuel; and (2) utilizing AGNS for full-scale commercial reprocessing of spent LWR fuel.« less

Modeling C-Band Co-Channel Interference From AeroMACS Omni-Directional Antennas to Mobile Satellite Service Feeder Uplinks

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Wilson, Jeffrey D.

2011-01-01

A new C-band (5091 to 5150 MHz) airport communications system designated as Aeronautical Mobile Airport Communications System (AeroMACS) is being planned under the Federal Aviation Administration s NextGen program. An interference analysis software program, Visualyse Professional (Transfinite Systems Ltd), is being utilized to provide guidelines on limitations for AeroMACS transmitters to avoid interference with other systems. A scenario consisting of a single omni-directional transmitting antenna at each of the major contiguous United States airports is modeled and the steps required to build the model are reported. The results are shown to agree very well with a previous study.

Technologies to Increase PV Hosting Capacity in Distribution Feeders: Preprint

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Ding, Fei; Mather, Barry; Gotseff, Peter

This paper studies the distributed photovoltaic (PV) hosting capacity in distribution feeders by using the stochastic analysis approach. Multiple scenario simulations are conducted to analyze several factors that affect PV hosting capacity, including the existence of voltage regulator, PV location, the power factor of PV inverter and Volt/VAR control. Based on the conclusions obtained from simulation results, three approaches are then proposed to increase distributed PV hosting capacity, which can be formulated as the optimization problem to obtain the optimal solution. All technologies investigated in this paper utilize only existing assets in the feeder and therefore are implementable for amore » low cost. Additionally, the tool developed for these studies is described.« less

Technologies to Increase PV Hosting Capacity in Distribution Feeders

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Ding, Fei; Mather, Barry; Gotseff, Peter

This paper studies the distributed photovoltaic (PV) hosting capacity in distribution feeders by using the stochastic analysis approach. Multiple scenario simulations are conducted to analyze several factors that affect PV hosting capacity, including the existence of voltage regulator, PV location, the power factor of PV inverter and Volt/VAR control. Based on the conclusions obtained from simulation results, three approaches are then proposed to increase distributed PV hosting capacity, which can be formulated as the optimization problem to obtain the optimal solution. All technologies investigated in this paper utilize only existing assets in the feeder and therefore are implementable for amore » low cost. Additionally, the tool developed for these studies is described.« less

Identifying elder abuse & neglect among family caregiving dyads: A cross sectional study of psychometric properties of the QualCare scale.

PubMed

Pickering, Carolyn E Z; Ridenour, Kimberly; Salaysay, Zachary; Reyes-Gastelum, David; Pierce, Steven J

2017-04-01

Universal screening for elder abuse and neglect is a current controversy in geriatrics, fueled by the lack of evidence on valid and reliable instruments. Since each U.S. State and many other countries have their own legal definitions of what constitutes elder abuse and neglect, this further complicates instrument development and clinical assessment. The purpose of this paper is to present data on the sensitivity and specificity of the QualCare Scale, an instrument with utility in detecting clinically significant elder abuse and neglect among older adults receiving care at home. Data used in this analysis were collected during a training program in which trainees completed assessments (N=80) of standardized case scenarios of caregiving dyads. Trainees completed the QualCare Scale during each assessment. This training program, including the assessments of the standardized case scenarios, was completed using a custom designed virtual-reality platform. Trainees were able to interact with the environment, older adult and caregiver within the case scenario. Thirty-six nurses and social workers from two Michigan Medicaid Waiver Sites participated in the training program. Each participant assessed between one and five scenarios, yielding the sample of 80 assessments used in this analysis. The research team designed each standardized case scenario to reflect whether or not the QualCare Scale subscale score should indicate reportable elder abuse and neglect per the State statute. Accordingly, the research team's QualCare Scale scores for each scenario were used as the gold standard criterion of clinical significance for comparison against the participant's assessment scores. Sensitivity and specificity for each of the six QualCare subscales was determined. Overall, the subscales had high sensitivity (≥0.811) but a wide range for specificity (0.167-1.000). The QualCare Scale can be an effective tool in detecting clinically significant elder abuse and neglect among older adults receiving care at home. This tool is suitable and feasible for use by practitioners working in home care. The QualCare Scale score indicating clinically significant or reportable elder abuse and neglect can be raised or lowered to be consistent with State or Country statutes, or simply used to create appropriate care plans to support caregiving. Findings from the QualCare Scale can support the multidisciplinary team in planning for and evaluating preventative interventions. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

From Modelling to Execution of Enterprise Integration Scenarios: The GENIUS Tool

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Scheibler, Thorsten; Leymann, Frank

One of the predominant problems IT companies are facing today is Enterprise Application Integration (EAI). Most of the infrastructures built to tackle integration issues are proprietary because no standards exist for how to model, develop, and actually execute integration scenarios. EAI patterns gain importance for non-technical business users to ease and harmonize the development of EAI scenarios. These patterns describe recurring EAI challenges and propose possible solutions in an abstract way. Therefore, one can use those patterns to describe enterprise architectures in a technology neutral manner. However, patterns are documentation only used by developers and systems architects to decide how to implement an integration scenario manually. Thus, patterns are not theoretical thought to stand for artefacts that will immediately be executed. This paper presents a tool supporting a method how EAI patterns can be used to generate executable artefacts for various target platforms automatically using a model-driven development approach, hence turning patterns into something executable. Therefore, we introduce a continuous tool chain beginning at the design phase and ending in executing an integration solution in a completely automatically manner. For evaluation purposes we introduce a scenario demonstrating how the tool is utilized for modelling and actually executing an integration scenario.

Martian resource locations: Identification and optimization

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chamitoff, Gregory; James, George; Barker, Donald; Dershowitz, Adam

2005-04-01

The identification and utilization of in situ Martian natural resources is the key to enable cost-effective long-duration missions and permanent human settlements on Mars. This paper presents a powerful software tool for analyzing Martian data from all sources, and for optimizing mission site selection based on resource collocation. This program, called Planetary Resource Optimization and Mapping Tool (PROMT), provides a wide range of analysis and display functions that can be applied to raw data or imagery. Thresholds, contours, custom algorithms, and graphical editing are some of the various methods that can be used to process data. Output maps can be created to identify surface regions on Mars that meet any specific criteria. The use of this tool for analyzing data, generating maps, and collocating features is demonstrated using data from the Mars Global Surveyor and the Odyssey spacecraft. The overall mission design objective is to maximize a combination of scientific return and self-sufficiency based on utilization of local materials. Landing site optimization involves maximizing accessibility to collocated science and resource features within a given mission radius. Mission types are categorized according to duration, energy resources, and in situ resource utilization. Preliminary optimization results are shown for a number of mission scenarios.

Solar thermal technologies - Potential benefits to U.S. utilities and industry

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Terasawa, K. L.; Gates, W. R.

1983-01-01

Solar energy systems were investigated which complement nuclear and coal technologies as a means of reducing the U.S. dependence on imported petroleum. Solar Thermal Energy Systems (STES) represents an important category of solar energy technologies. STES can be utilized in a broad range of applications servicing a variety of economic sectors, and they can be deployed in both near-term and long-term markets. The net present value of the energy cost savings attributable to electric utility and IPH applications of STES were estimated for a variety of future energy cost scenarios and levels of R&D success. This analysis indicated that the expected net benefits of developing an STES option are significantly greater than the expected costs of completing the required R&D. In addition, transportable fuels and chemical feedstocks represent a substantial future potential market for STES. Due to the basic nature of this R&D activity, however, it is currently impossible to estimate the value of STES in these markets. Despite this fact, private investment in STES R&D is not anticipated due to the high level of uncertainty characterizing the expected payoffs. Previously announced in STAR as N83-10547

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Klise, Katherine A.; Murray, Regan; Bynum, Michael

Water utilities are vulnerable to a wide variety of human-caused and natural disasters. These disruptive events can result in loss of water service, contaminated water, pipe breaks, and failed equipment. Furthermore, long term changes in water supply and customer demand can have a large impact on the operating conditions of the network. The ability to maintain drinking water service during and following these types of events is critical. Simulation and analysis tools can help water utilities explore how their network will respond to disruptive events and plan effective mitigation strategies. The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency and Sandia National Laboratories aremore » developing new software tools to meet this need. The Water Network Tool for Resilience (WNTR, pronounced winter) is a Python package designed to help water utilities investigate resilience of water distribution systems over a wide range of hazardous scenarios and to evaluate resilience-enhancing actions. The following documentation includes installation instructions and examples, description of software features, and software license. It is assumed that the reader is familiar with the Python Programming Language. References are included for additional background on software components. Online documentation, hosted at http://wntr.readthedocsio/, will be updated as new features are added. The online version includes API documentation and information for developers.« less

EDITORIAL: Where next with global environmental scenarios? Where next with global environmental scenarios?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

O'Neill, Brian; Pulver, Simone; Van Deveer, Stacy; Garb, Yaakov

2008-12-01

Scenarios have become a standard tool in the portfolio of techniques that scientists and policy-makers use to envision and plan for the future. Defined as plausible, challenging and relevant stories about how the future might unfold that integrate quantitative models with qualitative assessments of social and political trends, scenarios are a central component in assessment processes for a range of global issues, including climate change, biodiversity, agriculture, and energy. Yet, despite their prevalence, systematic analysis of scenarios is in its beginning stages. Fundamental questions remain about both the epistemology and scientific credibility of scenarios and their roles in policymaking and social change. Answers to these questions have the potential to determine the future of scenario analyses. Is scenario analysis moving in the direction of earth system governance informed by global scenarios generated through increasingly complex and comprehensive models integrating socio-economic and earth systems? Or will global environmental scenario analyses lose favour compared to more focused, policy-driven, regionally specific modelling? These questions come at an important time for the climate change issue, given that the scenario community, catalyzed by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), is currently preparing to embark on a new round of scenario development processes aimed at coordinating research and assessment, and informing policy, over the next five to ten years. These and related questions about where next to go with global environmental scenarios animated a workshop held at Brown University (Note1) that brought together leading practitioners and scholars of global environmental change scenarios from research, policy-making, advocacy, and business settings. The workshop aimed to provide an overview of current practices/best practices in scenario production and scenario use across a range of global environmental change arenas. Participants worked to bring the experience generated from over four decades of scenario development in other issue domains, including energy and security, to bear on environmental scenarios, and to bring into dialogue scenario practitioners, both producers and users, with social science scholars. The set of contributions to this focus issue of Environmental Research Letters arose out of this workshop and collectively examines key challenges facing the scenario community, synthesizes lessons, and offers recommendations for new research and practice in this field. One theme that emerged in many of the discussions at the workshop revolved around the distinction between two broad perspectives on the goals of scenario exercises: scenarios as products and scenarios as processes. Most global environmental change scenario exercises are product-oriented; the content of the scenarios developed is the main goal of many participants and those who commission or organize the scenario development process. Typically, what is of most interest are the environmental outcomes produced, how they relate to the various factors driving them, and what the results tell us about the prospects for future environmental change, for impacts, and for mitigation. A product-oriented perspective assumes that once produced, scenario products have lives of their own, divorced from the processes that generated them and able to serve multiple, often unspecified purposes. Thus, it is often assumed that the scenario products can be 'taken up' by a variety of users in a variety of fora. A contrasting scenario approach is process-oriented and self-consciously privileges the process of scenario development as the primary goal, for example as a means to motivate organizational learning, find commonalities across different perspectives, achieve consensus on goals, or come to a shared understanding of challenges. Focusing on scenarios as processes highlights the social contexts in which scenarios are created and used. Process-oriented scenario exercises also generate scenario products, but such products are recognized as meaningful mostly (or only) in the social context in which they were developed. It should be noted that those seeking to understand the functions, implications and utility of scenarios can approach analysis of scenarios and their impacts from either perspective—focusing attention on product outcomes and influence or assessing procedural and contextual dynamics and implications. Papers in this issue examine various aspects of scenario products, scenario processes and their interactions, with specific reference to global environmental change scenarios. Hulme and Dessai (2008) use the product-process distinction as a starting point for developing a framework to evaluate the success of scenario exercises. They identify 'prediction success', 'decision success' and 'learning success' as three evaluation metrics for scenarios, with the first two most relevant to scenario products and the last emphasizing procedural aspects of scenarios. They suggest that viewing scenarios primarily as products implies examining how closely actual outcomes have matched envisioned outcomes, while viewing them primarily as processes suggests evaluating the extent to which scenarios engaged participants and enabled their learning. O'Neill and Nakicenovic (2008) focus on Hulme and Dessai's evaluation metric, learning. Based on a review of six scenario/assessment exercises, they ask if and how scenario products have incorporated comparative assessments of results in order to enable cumulative learning across scenario efforts. The authors conclude that, although participating modelling teams have benefited greatly from the process of scenario activities and applied that learning to other scenario exercises in which they engage, learning from comparative assessments of scenario products has been rather limited; the latter due to the limited time and resources invested in comparative analysis. Pitcher (2009) speaks to a similar audience, namely the emissions scenario communities that are organizing to undertake a new round of scenario development in the lead-up to the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report. His focus is primarily on a set of concerns that need to be addressed if the new set of socio-economic and emissions scenario products are to adequately support climate model runs, mitigation analyses, and impacts, adaptation and vulnerability research. Pitcher flags issues associated with assessment and measurement of economic growth, challenges associated with downscaling long-term, global scenarios to finer geographic and time scales, and possible ways to grapple with probability and uncertainty in scenario analyses. Garb et al (2008) shift focus to the process aspects of scenarios, focusing on how scenarios simultaneously shape and embed their social contexts. They outline and give examples from a research agenda, drawing on concepts and methods from sociology, political science, and science and technology studies, aimed at redressing the growing imbalance between the increasing technical sophistication of the quantitative components of scenarios on the one hand, and the continued simplicity of our understandings of the social origins, linkages, and implications of the narratives to which they are coupled on the other. Focusing on the treatment of equity concerns in the IPCC Special Report on Emissions Scenarios, Baer (2009) offers a concrete example of how particular social assumptions and definitions of equity are built into scenarios which then create particular worldviews about rights and responsibilities. Baer argues that incorporating distributions of income within—and not only between—countries in quantitative scenario exercises makes visible questions regarding the assignment of rights and the distribution of costs and benefits; such equity considerations, he argues, are central to engendering the cooperation necessary to address the climate crisis. For Parson (2008), the product-process distinction serves to highlight the unique characteristics and challenges of scenarios for global environmental change, including their use in large-scale official assessments, basis in biophysical modelling, weak connections to decision-makers, and roles as sites of public controversy. Parson argues that these characteristics of global environmental change scenarios prohibit process-oriented approaches, which rely on pre-identifying intended users and engaging them in the scenario development process. Instead, he proposes ways in which scenario products can be enhanced to support use by multiple, non-participant user communities. Wilkinson and Eidinow (2008) reach a different conclusion. They too identify the particular challenges of grappling with global environmental change. They examine approaches to past scenario efforts and categorize them into two groups that map loosely onto the product-process distinction: 'problem-focused' and 'actor-centric' approaches. They propose that progress in global environmental issues can best be made through a new, third type of approach ('reflexive interventionist or multi-agent based') that would combine elements of problem- and actor-focused approaches, creating scenario processes that can simultaneously support longer-term thinking as well as more immediate actions. Collectively, the papers in this issue range widely across issues associated with contemporary scenario processes and products. We can discern in them the outlines of an important set of suggestions for improving scenario development in the future, including, among others, the following: Focus scenario exercises on more specific questions so that results from multiple models can be more illuminating (O'Neill and Nakicenovic; Garb et al 2008). Enhance scenario transparency so as to enable extensions by users, rather than further expanding representation in global scenarios themselves (Parson 2008). Incorporate relatively simple measures (such as sub-national disaggregation of income distributions and climate change impacts) in order to boost the equity sensitivity of scenarios (Baer 2009). Recognize topics where social science inputs are becoming important for improving modelling and model relevance, such as providing a logic for how societies manage to transition from historical paths to the various future development paths foreseen in the scenarios, or developing measures of well-being which are independent of income levels, and include in global environmental scenario teams more representatives of social science professionals (Pitcher 2009; Garb et al 2008). Invest greater resources in assessing scenario results, and in understanding and overcoming the barriers to carrying out such assessment (Hulme and Dessai 2008; O'Neill and Nakicenovic, 2008). Disaggregate the variety of global change decision makers targeted as audiences for scenarios (Parson 2008; Garb et al 2008). Develop an additional 'reflective interventionist' scenarios approach that involves different epistemologies for active learning in the public interest (Wilkinson and Eidinow 2008). Draw on the extensive toolkit of social science research methods to analyze the social work of scenarios (Garb et al 2008). Create new institutions and scenario activities that can adapt and extend global scenarios to specific, often local or regional decision contexts (Parson 2008). Create fora in which scenario practitioners, modellers, decision-makers, and social scientists of various kinds can discuss the process of scenario construction and use (Garb et al 2008). We do not mean to imply a consensus among the participants in the Brown University workshop or of contributors to this collection of papers. At the same time, we believe that these and other insights and suggestions from these contributions do have a certain coherence, and collectively point to a deepening and reinvigoration of the environmental scenario-modelling enterprise—an enterprise now facing environmental change processes that are emerging as some of the most pressing challenges of our time. Acknowledgements We would like to thank the Global Environment Program at the Watson Institute for International Studies at Brown University and the US Environmental Protection Agency for financially supporting publication of this focus issue. Focus on Global Environmental Scenarios Contents Predicting, deciding, learning: can one evaluate the 'success' of national climate scenarios? Mike Hulme and Suraje Dessai Learning from global emissions scenarios Brian C O'Neill and Nebojsa Nakicenovic Scenarios in society, society in scenarios: toward a social scientific analysis of storyline-driven environmental modeling Yaakov Garb, Simone Pulver and Stacy D VanDeveer Useful global-change scenarios: current issues and challenges E A Parson Evolving practices in environmental scenarios: a new scenario typology Angela Wilkinson and Esther Eidinow Notes Note1 The workshop was held in March 2007, jointly sponsored by the Watson Institute for International Studies at Brown University, the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA) in Austria, and the US National Intelligence Council. See http://www.watsoninstitute.org/ge/scenarios/ for more information.

Strategic Analysis Overview

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Cirillo, William M.; Earle, Kevin D.; Goodliff, Kandyce E.; Reeves, J. D.; Stromgren, Chel; Andraschko, Mark R.; Merrill, R. Gabe

2008-01-01

NASA s Constellation Program employs a strategic analysis methodology in providing an integrated analysis capability of Lunar exploration scenarios and to support strategic decision-making regarding those scenarios. The strategic analysis methodology integrates the assessment of the major contributors to strategic objective satisfaction performance, affordability, and risk and captures the linkages and feedbacks between all three components. Strategic analysis supports strategic decision making by senior management through comparable analysis of alternative strategies, provision of a consistent set of high level value metrics, and the enabling of cost-benefit analysis. The tools developed to implement the strategic analysis methodology are not element design and sizing tools. Rather, these models evaluate strategic performance using predefined elements, imported into a library from expert-driven design/sizing tools or expert analysis. Specific components of the strategic analysis tool set include scenario definition, requirements generation, mission manifesting, scenario lifecycle costing, crew time analysis, objective satisfaction benefit, risk analysis, and probabilistic evaluation. Results from all components of strategic analysis are evaluated a set of pre-defined figures of merit (FOMs). These FOMs capture the high-level strategic characteristics of all scenarios and facilitate direct comparison of options. The strategic analysis methodology that is described in this paper has previously been applied to the Space Shuttle and International Space Station Programs and is now being used to support the development of the baseline Constellation Program lunar architecture. This paper will present an overview of the strategic analysis methodology and will present sample results from the application of the strategic analysis methodology to the Constellation Program lunar architecture.

The use of multi criteria analysis to compare the operating scenarios of the hybrid generation system of wind turbines, photovoltaic modules and a fuel cell

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ceran, Bartosz

2017-11-01

The paper presents the results of the use of multi-criteria analysis to compare hybrid power generation system collaboration scenarios (HSW) consisting of wind turbines, solar panels and energy storage electrolyzer - PEM type fuel cell with electricity system. The following scenarios were examined: the base S-I-hybrid system powers the off-grid mode receiver, S-II, S-III, S-IV scenarios-electricity system covers 25%, 50%, 75% of energy demand by the recipient. The effect of weights of the above-mentioned criteria on the final result of the multi-criteria analysis was examined.

Pattern Activity Clustering and Evaluation (PACE)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Blasch, Erik; Banas, Christopher; Paul, Michael; Bussjager, Becky; Seetharaman, Guna

2012-06-01

With the vast amount of network information available on activities of people (i.e. motions, transportation routes, and site visits) there is a need to explore the salient properties of data that detect and discriminate the behavior of individuals. Recent machine learning approaches include methods of data mining, statistical analysis, clustering, and estimation that support activity-based intelligence. We seek to explore contemporary methods in activity analysis using machine learning techniques that discover and characterize behaviors that enable grouping, anomaly detection, and adversarial intent prediction. To evaluate these methods, we describe the mathematics and potential information theory metrics to characterize behavior. A scenario is presented to demonstrate the concept and metrics that could be useful for layered sensing behavior pattern learning and analysis. We leverage work on group tracking, learning and clustering approaches; as well as utilize information theoretical metrics for classification, behavioral and event pattern recognition, and activity and entity analysis. The performance evaluation of activity analysis supports high-level information fusion of user alerts, data queries and sensor management for data extraction, relations discovery, and situation analysis of existing data.

Assessing the application of knowledge in clinical problem-solving: The structured professional reasoning exercise.

PubMed

Escudier, M P; Woolford, M J; Tricio, J A

2018-05-01

Clinical reasoning is a fundamental and core clinical competence of healthcare professionals. The study aimed to investigate the utility of the Structured Professional Reasoning Exercise (SPRE), a new competence assessment method designed to measure dental students' clinical reasoning in simulated scenarios, covering the clinical areas of Oral Disease, Primary Dental Care and Restorative Dentistry, Child Dental Health and Dental Practice and Clinical Governance. A total of 313 year-5 students sat for the assessment. Students spent 45 minutes assimilating the scenarios, before rotating through four pairs of 39 trained examiners who each independently assessed a single scenario over a ten-minute period, using a structured marking sheet. After the assessment, all students and examiners were invited to complete an anonymous perception questionnaire of the exercise. These questionnaires and the examination scores were statistically analysed. Oral Disease showed the lowest scores; Dental Practice and Governance the highest. The overall Intraclass Correlation Coefficient (ICC) was 0.770, whilst examiner training helped to increase the ICC from 0.716 in 2013 to 0.835 in 2014. Exploratory factor analysis revealed one major factor with an eigenvalue of 2.75 (68.8% of total variance). The Generalizability coefficient was consistent at 0.806. A total of 295 students and 32 examiners completed the perception questionnaire. Students' lowest examination perceptions were an "Unpleasant" and "Unenjoyable" experience, whilst the highest were "Interesting", "Valuable" and "Important". The majority of students and examiners reported the assessment as acceptable, fair and valid. The SPRE offers a reliable, valid and acceptable assessment method, provided it comprises at least four scenarios with two independently marking and trained assessors. 3. © 2017 John Wiley & Sons A/S. Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Assessing the impact of managed aquifer recharge on seasonal low flows in a semi-arid alluvial river

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ronayne, M. J.; Roudebush, J. A.; Stednick, J. D.

2016-12-01

Managed aquifer recharge (MAR) is one strategy that can be used to augment seasonal low flows in alluvial rivers. Successful implementation requires an understanding of spatio-temporal groundwater-surface water exchange. In this study we conducted numerical groundwater modeling to analyze the performance of an existing MAR system in the South Platte River Valley in northeastern Colorado (USA). The engineered system involves a spatial reallocation of water during the winter months; alluvial groundwater is extracted near the river and pumped to upgradient recharge ponds, with the intent of producing a delayed hydraulic response that increases the riparian zone water table (and therefore streamflow) during summer months. Higher flows during the summer are required to improve riverine habitat for threatened species in the Platte River. Modeling scenarios were constrained by surface (streamflow gaging) and subsurface (well data) measurements throughout the study area. We compare two scenarios to analyze the impact of MAR: a natural base case scenario and an active management scenario that includes groundwater pumping and managed recharge. Steady-periodic solutions are used to evaluate the long-term stabilized behavior of the stream-aquifer system with and without pumping/recharge. Streamflow routing is included in the model, which permits quantification of the timing and location of streamflow accretion (increased streamflow associated with MAR). An analysis framework utilizing capture concepts is developed to interpret seasonal changes in head-dependent flows to/from the aquifer, including groundwater-surface water exchange that impacts streamflow. Results demonstrate that accretion occurs during the target low-flow period but is not limited to those months, highlighting an inefficiency that is a function of the aquifer geometry and hydraulic properties. The results of this study offer guidance for other flow augmentation projects that rely on water storage in shallow alluvial aquifers.

Effects of co-products on the life-cycle impacts of microalgal biodiesel.

PubMed

Soratana, Kullapa; Barr, William J; Landis, Amy E

2014-05-01

Microalgal biodiesel production has been investigated for decades, yet it is not commercially available. Part of the problem is that the production process is energy and chemical intensive due, in part, to the high portion of microalgal biomass left as residues. This study investigated cradle-to-gate life-cycle environmental impacts from six different scenarios of microalgal biodiesel and its co-products. Ozone depletion, global warming, photochemical smog formation, acidification and eutrophication potentials were assessed using the Tool for the Reduction and Assessment of Chemical and other environmental Impacts (TRACI). Monte Carlo Analysis was conducted to investigate the processes with major contribution in each impact category. The market opportunity for each co-product was examined based on supply, demand and prices of the products that could potentially be substituted by the co-products. The results indicated that the scenario with the least life-cycle environmental impacts in all the five impact categories with the highest net energy ratio was the scenario utilizing a multitude of co-products including bioethanol from lipid-extracted microalgae (LEA), biomethane (to produce electricity and heat) from simultaneous saccharification-fermentation (SSF) residues, land-applied material from SSF residue anaerobic digestion (AD) solid digestate, recycling nutrients from SSF residue AD liquid digestate and CO2 recovered from SSF process contributed. Decreasing the energy consumption of the centrifuge in the land-applied material production process and increasing the lipid content of microalgae can reduce environmental footprints of the co-products. The same scenario also had the highest total income indicating their potential as co-products in the market. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

ADAPT

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Reynolds, John; Jankovsky, Zachary; Metzroth, Kyle G

2018-04-04

The purpose of the ADAPT code is to generate Dynamic Event Trees (DET) using a user specified set of simulators. ADAPT can utilize any simulation tool which meets a minimal set of requirements. ADAPT is based on the concept of DET which uses explicit modeling of the deterministic dynamic processes that take place during a nuclear reactor plant system (or other complex system) evolution along with stochastic modeling. When DET are used to model various aspects of Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA), all accident progression scenarios starting from an initiating event are considered simultaneously. The DET branching occurs at user specifiedmore » times and/or when an action is required by the system and/or the operator. These outcomes then decide how the dynamic system variables will evolve in time for each DET branch. Since two different outcomes at a DET branching may lead to completely different paths for system evolution, the next branching for these paths may occur not only at separate times, but can be based on different branching criteria. The computational infrastructure allows for flexibility in ADAPT to link with different system simulation codes, parallel processing of the scenarios under consideration, on-line scenario management (initiation as well as termination), analysis of results, and user friendly graphical capabilities. The ADAPT system is designed for a distributed computing environment; the scheduler can track multiple concurrent branches simultaneously. The scheduler is modularized so that the DET branching strategy can be modified (e.g. biasing towards the worst-case scenario/event). Independent database systems store data from the simulation tasks and the DET structure so that the event tree can be constructed and analyzed later. ADAPT is provided with a user-friendly client which can easily sort through and display the results of an experiment, precluding the need for the user to manually inspect individual simulator runs.« less

Impact of irrigations on simulated convective activity over Central Greece: A high resolution study

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kotsopoulos, S.; Tegoulias, I.; Pytharoulis, I.; Kartsios, S.; Bampzelis, D.; Karacostas, T.

2014-12-01

The aim of this research is to investigate the impact of irrigations in the characteristics of convective activity simulated by the non-hydrostatic Weather Research and Forecasting model with the Advanced Research dynamic solver (WRF-ARW, version 3.5.1), under different upper air synoptic conditions in central Greece. To this end, 42 cases equally distributed under the six most frequent upper air synoptic conditions, which are associated with convective activity in the region of interest, were utilized considering two different soil moisture scenarios. In the first scenario, the model was initialized with the surface soil moisture of the ECMWF analysis data that usually does not take into account the modification of soil moisture due to agricultural activity in the area of interest. In the second scenario, the soil moisture in the upper soil layers of the study area was modified to the field capacity for the irrigated cropland. Three model domains, covering Europe, the Mediterranean Sea and northern Africa (d01), the wider area of Greece (d02) and central Greece - Thessaly region (d03) are used at horizontal grid-spacings of 15km, 5km and 1km respectively. The model numerical results indicate a strong dependence of convective spatiotemporal characteristics from the soil moisture difference between the two scenarios. Acknowledgements: This research is co-financed by the European Union (European Regional Development Fund) and Greek national funds, through the action "COOPERATION 2011: Partnerships of Production and Research Institutions in Focused Research and Technology Sectors" (contract number 11SYN_8_1088 - DAPHNE) in the framework of the operational programme "Competitiveness and Entrepreneurship" and Regions in Transition (OPC II, NSRF 2007-2013).

Model based systems engineering (MBSE) applied to Radio Aurora Explorer (RAX) CubeSat mission operational scenarios

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Spangelo, S. C.; Cutler, J.; Anderson, L.; Fosse, E.; Cheng, L.; Yntema, R.; Bajaj, M.; Delp, C.; Cole, B.; Soremekum, G.; Kaslow, D.

Small satellites are more highly resource-constrained by mass, power, volume, delivery timelines, and financial cost relative to their larger counterparts. Small satellites are operationally challenging because subsystem functions are coupled and constrained by the limited available commodities (e.g. data, energy, and access times to ground resources). Furthermore, additional operational complexities arise because small satellite components are physically integrated, which may yield thermal or radio frequency interference. In this paper, we extend our initial Model Based Systems Engineering (MBSE) framework developed for a small satellite mission by demonstrating the ability to model different behaviors and scenarios. We integrate several simulation tools to execute SysML-based behavior models, including subsystem functions and internal states of the spacecraft. We demonstrate utility of this approach to drive the system analysis and design process. We demonstrate applicability of the simulation environment to capture realistic satellite operational scenarios, which include energy collection, the data acquisition, and downloading to ground stations. The integrated modeling environment enables users to extract feasibility, performance, and robustness metrics. This enables visualization of both the physical states (e.g. position, attitude) and functional states (e.g. operating points of various subsystems) of the satellite for representative mission scenarios. The modeling approach presented in this paper offers satellite designers and operators the opportunity to assess the feasibility of vehicle and network parameters, as well as the feasibility of operational schedules. This will enable future missions to benefit from using these models throughout the full design, test, and fly cycle. In particular, vehicle and network parameters and schedules can be verified prior to being implemented, during mission operations, and can also be updated in near real-time with oper- tional performance feedback.

Effects of adjusting cropping systems on utilization efficiency of climatic resources in Northeast China under future climate scenarios

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Guo, Jianping; Zhao, Junfang; Xu, Yanhong; Chu, Zheng; Mu, Jia; Zhao, Qian

Quantitatively evaluating the effects of adjusting cropping systems on the utilization efficiency of climatic resources under climate change is an important task for assessing food security in China. To understand these effects, we used daily climate variables obtained from the regional climate model RegCM3 from 1981 to 2100 under the A1B scenario and crop observations from 53 agro-meteorological experimental stations from 1981 to 2010 in Northeast China. Three one-grade zones of cropping systems were divided by heat, water, topography and crop-type, including the semi-arid areas of the northeast and northwest (III), the one crop area of warm-cool plants in semi-humid plain or hilly regions of the northeast (IV), and the two crop area in irrigated farmland in the Huanghuaihai Plain (VI). An agro-ecological zone model was used to calculate climatic potential productivities. The effects of adjusting cropping systems on climate resource utilization in Northeast China under the A1B scenario were assessed. The results indicated that from 1981 to 2100 in the III, IV and VI areas, the planting boundaries of different cropping systems in Northeast China obviously shifted toward the north and the east based on comprehensively considering the heat and precipitation resources. However, due to high temperature stress, the climatic potential productivity of spring maize was reduced in the future. Therefore, adjusting the cropping system is an effective way to improve the climatic potential productivity and climate resource utilization. Replacing the one crop in one year model (spring maize) by the two crops in one year model (winter wheat and summer maize) significantly increased the total climatic potential productivity and average utilization efficiencies. During the periods of 2011-2040, 2041-2070 and 2071-2100, the average total climatic potential productivities of winter wheat and summer maize increased by 9.36%, 11.88% and 12.13% compared to that of spring maize, respectively. Additionally, compared with spring maize, the average utilization efficiencies of thermal resources of winter wheat and summer maize dramatically increased by 9.2%, 12.1% and 12.0%, respectively. The increases in the average utilization efficiencies of precipitation resources of winter wheat and summer maize were 1.78 kg hm-2 mm-1, 2.07 kg hm-2 mm-1 and 1.92 kg hm-2 mm-1 during 2011-2040, 2041-2070 and 2071-2100, respectively. Our findings highlight that adjusting cropping systems can dominantly contribute to utilization efficiency increases of agricultural climatic resources in Northeast China in the future.

Overview of the Hydrogen Financial Analysis Scenario Tool (H2FAST); NREL (National Renewable Energy Laboratory)

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Melaina, Marc; Bush, Brian; Penev, Michael

This presentation provides an introduction to the Hydrogen Financial Analysis Scenario Tool (H2FAST) and includes an overview of each of the three versions of H2FAST: the Web tool, the Excel spreadsheet version, and the beta version of the H2FAST Business Case Scenario tool.

Annual Technology Baseline and Standard Scenarios | Energy Analysis | NREL

Science.gov Websites

electric sector analysis in the United States. NREL analysts consistently apply the products of this work Scenarios Annual Report and A U.S. Electric Sector Outlook - This annual report presents an outlook of the U.S. electricity sector based on a suite of standard scenarios with their associated assumptions

Control Room Training for the Hyper-X Project Utilizing Aircraft Simulation

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lux-Baumann, Jesica; Dees, Ray; Fratello, David

2006-01-01

The NASA Dryden Flight Research Center flew two Hyper-X research vehicles and achieved hypersonic speeds over the Pacific Ocean in March and November 2004. To train the flight and mission control room crew, the NASA Dryden simulation capability was utilized to generate telemetry and radar data, which was used in nominal and emergency mission scenarios. During these control room training sessions personnel were able to evaluate and refine data displays, flight cards, mission parameter allowable limits, and emergency procedure checklists. Practice in the mission control room ensured that all primary and backup Hyper-X staff were familiar with the nominal mission and knew how to respond to anomalous conditions quickly and successfully. This report describes the technology in the simulation environment and the Mission Control Center, the need for and benefit of control room training, and the rationale and results of specific scenarios unique to the Hyper-X research missions.

Control Room Training for the Hyper-X Program Utilizing Aircraft Simulation

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lux-Baumann, Jessica R.; Dees, Ray A.; Fratello, David J.

2006-01-01

The NASA Dryden Flight Research Center flew two Hyper-X Research Vehicles and achieved hypersonic speeds over the Pacific Ocean in March and November 2004. To train the flight and mission control room crew, the NASA Dryden simulation capability was utilized to generate telemetry and radar data, which was used in nominal and emergency mission scenarios. During these control room training sessions, personnel were able to evaluate and refine data displays, flight cards, mission parameter allowable limits, and emergency procedure checklists. Practice in the mission control room ensured that all primary and backup Hyper-X staff were familiar with the nominal mission and knew how to respond to anomalous conditions quickly and successfully. This paper describes the technology in the simulation environment and the mission control center, the need for and benefit of control room training, and the rationale and results of specific scenarios unique to the Hyper-X research missions.

Asteroid exploration and utilization

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Radovich, Brian M.; Carlson, Alan E.; Date, Medha D.; Duarte, Manny G.; Erian, Neil F.; Gafka, George K.; Kappler, Peter H.; Patano, Scott J.; Perez, Martin; Ponce, Edgar

1992-01-01

The Earth is nearing depletion of its natural resources at a time when human beings are rapidly expanding the frontiers of space. The resources possessed by asteroids have enormous potential for aiding and enhancing human space exploration as well as life on Earth. Project STONER (Systematic Transfer of Near Earth Resources) is based on mining an asteroid and transporting raw materials back to Earth. The asteroid explorer/sample return mission is designed in the context of both scenarios and is the first phase of a long range plan for humans to utilize asteroid resources. Project STONER is divided into two parts: asteroid selection and explorer spacecraft design. The spacecraft design team is responsible for the selection and integration of the subsystems: GNC, communications, automation, propulsion, power, structures, thermal systems, scientific instruments, and mechanisms used on the surface to retrieve and store asteroid regolith. The sample return mission scenario consists of eight primary phases that are critical to the mission.

Simulating Crop Evapotranspiration Response under Different Planting Scenarios by Modified SWAT Model in an Irrigation District, Northwest China.

PubMed

Liu, Xin; Wang, Sufen; Xue, Han; Singh, Vijay P

2015-01-01

Modelling crop evapotranspiration (ET) response to different planting scenarios in an irrigation district plays a significant role in optimizing crop planting patterns, resolving agricultural water scarcity and facilitating the sustainable use of water resources. In this study, the SWAT model was improved by transforming the evapotranspiration module. Then, the improved model was applied in Qingyuan Irrigation District of northwest China as a case study. Land use, soil, meteorology, irrigation scheduling and crop coefficient were considered as input data, and the irrigation district was divided into subdivisions based on the DEM and local canal systems. On the basis of model calibration and verification, the improved model showed better simulation efficiency than did the original model. Therefore, the improved model was used to simulate the crop evapotranspiration response under different planting scenarios in the irrigation district. Results indicated that crop evapotranspiration decreased by 2.94% and 6.01% under the scenarios of reducing the planting proportion of spring wheat (scenario 1) and summer maize (scenario 2) by keeping the total cultivated area unchanged. However, the total net output values presented an opposite trend under different scenarios. The values decreased by 3.28% under scenario 1, while it increased by 7.79% under scenario 2, compared with the current situation. This study presents a novel method to estimate crop evapotranspiration response under different planting scenarios using the SWAT model, and makes recommendations for strategic agricultural water management planning for the rational utilization of water resources and development of local economy by studying the impact of planting scenario changes on crop evapotranspiration and output values in the irrigation district of northwest China.

Simulating Crop Evapotranspiration Response under Different Planting Scenarios by Modified SWAT Model in an Irrigation District, Northwest China

PubMed Central

Liu, Xin; Wang, Sufen; Xue, Han; Singh, Vijay P.

2015-01-01

Modelling crop evapotranspiration (ET) response to different planting scenarios in an irrigation district plays a significant role in optimizing crop planting patterns, resolving agricultural water scarcity and facilitating the sustainable use of water resources. In this study, the SWAT model was improved by transforming the evapotranspiration module. Then, the improved model was applied in Qingyuan Irrigation District of northwest China as a case study. Land use, soil, meteorology, irrigation scheduling and crop coefficient were considered as input data, and the irrigation district was divided into subdivisions based on the DEM and local canal systems. On the basis of model calibration and verification, the improved model showed better simulation efficiency than did the original model. Therefore, the improved model was used to simulate the crop evapotranspiration response under different planting scenarios in the irrigation district. Results indicated that crop evapotranspiration decreased by 2.94% and 6.01% under the scenarios of reducing the planting proportion of spring wheat (scenario 1) and summer maize (scenario 2) by keeping the total cultivated area unchanged. However, the total net output values presented an opposite trend under different scenarios. The values decreased by 3.28% under scenario 1, while it increased by 7.79% under scenario 2, compared with the current situation. This study presents a novel method to estimate crop evapotranspiration response under different planting scenarios using the SWAT model, and makes recommendations for strategic agricultural water management planning for the rational utilization of water resources and development of local economy by studying the impact of planting scenario changes on crop evapotranspiration and output values in the irrigation district of northwest China. PMID:26439928

SERA Scenarios of Early Market Fuel Cell Electric Vehicle Introductions: Modeling Framework, Regional Markets, and Station Clustering; NREL (National Renewable Energy Laboratory)

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Melaina, M.

This presentation provides an overview of the Scenario Evaluation and Regionalization Analysis (SERA) model, describes the methodology for developing scenarios for hydrogen infrastructure development, outlines an example "Hydrogen Success" scenario, and discusses detailed scenario metrics for a particular case study region, the Northeast Corridor.

Breath tests sustainability in hospital settings: cost analysis and reimbursement in the Italian National Health System.

PubMed

Volpe, M; Scaldaferri, F; Ojetti, V; Poscia, A

2013-01-01

The high demand of Breath Tests (BT) in many gastroenterological conditions in time of limited resources for health care systems, generates increased interest in cost analysis from the point of view of the delivery of services to better understand how use the money to generate value. This study aims to measure the cost of C13 Urea and other most utilized breath tests in order to describe key aspects of costs and reimbursements looking at the economic sustainability for the hospital. A hospital based cost-analysis of the main breath tests commonly delivery in an ambulatory setting is performed. Mean salary for professional nurses and gastroenterologists, drugs/preparation used and disposable materials, purchase and depreciation of the instrument and the testing time was used to estimate the cost, while reimbursements are based on the 2013 Italian National Health System ambulatory pricelist. Variables that could influence the model are considered in the sensitivity analyses. The mean cost for C13--Urea, Lactulose and Lactose BT are, respectively, Euros 30,59; 45,20 and 30,29. National reimbursement often doesn't cover the cost of the analysis, especially considering the scenario with lower number of exam. On the contrary, in high performance scenario all the reimbursement could cover the cost, except for the C13 Urea BT that is high influenced by the drugs cost. However, consideration about the difference between Italian Regional Health System ambulatory pricelist are done. Our analysis shows that while national reimbursement rates cover the costs of H2 breath testing, they do not cover sufficiently C13 BT, particularly urea breath test. The real economic strength of these non invasive tests should be considered in the overall organization of inpatient and outpatient clinic, accounting for complete diagnostic pathway for each gastrointestinal disease.

Self-consistent modeling of CFETR baseline scenarios for steady-state operation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chen, Jiale; Jian, Xiang; Chan, Vincent S.; Li, Zeyu; Deng, Zhao; Li, Guoqiang; Guo, Wenfeng; Shi, Nan; Chen, Xi; CFETR Physics Team

2017-07-01

Integrated modeling for core plasma is performed to increase confidence in the proposed baseline scenario in the 0D analysis for the China Fusion Engineering Test Reactor (CFETR). The steady-state scenarios are obtained through the consistent iterative calculation of equilibrium, transport, auxiliary heating and current drives (H&CD). Three combinations of H&CD schemes (NB + EC, NB + EC + LH, and EC + LH) are used to sustain the scenarios with q min > 2 and fusion power of ˜70-150 MW. The predicted power is within the target range for CFETR Phase I, although the confinement based on physics models is lower than that assumed in 0D analysis. Ideal MHD stability analysis shows that the scenarios are stable against n = 1-10 ideal modes, where n is the toroidal mode number. Optimization of RF current drive for the RF-only scenario is also presented. The simulation workflow for core plasma in this work provides a solid basis for a more extensive research and development effort for the physics design of CFETR.

Expected ozone benefits of reducing nitrogen oxide (NOx) emissions from coal-fired electricity generating units in the eastern United States.

PubMed

Vinciguerra, Timothy; Bull, Emily; Canty, Timothy; He, Hao; Zalewsky, Eric; Woodman, Michael; Aburn, George; Ehrman, Sheryl; Dickerson, Russell R

2017-03-01

On hot summer days in the eastern United States, electricity demand rises, mainly because of increased use of air conditioning. Power plants must provide this additional energy, emitting additional pollutants when meteorological conditions are primed for poor air quality. To evaluate the impact of summertime NO x emissions from coal-fired electricity generating units (EGUs) on surface ozone formation, we performed a series of sensitivity modeling forecast scenarios utilizing EPA 2018 version 6.0 emissions (2011 base year) and CMAQ v5.0.2. Coal-fired EGU NO x emissions were adjusted to match the lowest NO x rates observed during the ozone seasons (April 1-October 31) of 2005-2012 (Scenario A), where ozone decreased by 3-4 ppb in affected areas. When compared to the highest emissions rates during the same time period (Scenario B), ozone increased ∼4-7 ppb. NO x emission rates adjusted to match the observed rates from 2011 (Scenario C) increased ozone by ∼4-5 ppb. Finally in Scenario D, the impact of additional NO x reductions was determined by assuming installation of selective catalytic reduction (SCR) controls on all units lacking postcombustion controls; this decreased ozone by an additional 2-4 ppb relative to Scenario A. Following the announcement of a stricter 8-hour ozone standard, this analysis outlines a strategy that would help bring coastal areas in the mid-Atlantic region closer to attainment, and would also provide profound benefits for upwind states where most of the regional EGU NO x originates, even if additional capital investments are not made (Scenario A). With the 8-hr maximum ozone National Ambient Air Quality Standard (NAAQS) decreasing from 75 to 70 ppb, modeling results indicate that use of postcombustion controls on coal-fired power plants in 2018 could help keep regions in attainment. By operating already existing nitrogen oxide (NO x ) removal devices to their full potential, ozone could be significantly curtailed, achieving ozone reductions by up to 5 ppb in areas around the source of emission and immediately downwind. Ozone improvements are also significant (1-2 ppb) for areas affected by cross-state transport, especially Mid-Atlantic coast regions that had struggled to meet the 75 ppb standard.

Impact of unseen assumptions on communication of atmospheric carbon mitigation options

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Elliot, T. R.; Celia, M. A.; Court, B.

2010-12-01

With the rapid access and dissemination of information made available through online and digital pathways, there is need for a concurrent openness and transparency in communication of scientific investigation. Even with open communication it is essential that the scientific community continue to provide impartial result-driven information. An unknown factor in climate literacy is the influence of an impartial presentation of scientific investigation that has utilized biased base-assumptions. A formal publication appendix, and additional digital material, provides active investigators a suitable framework and ancillary material to make informed statements weighted by assumptions made in a study. However, informal media and rapid communiqués rarely make such investigatory attempts, often citing headline or key phrasing within a written work. This presentation is focused on Geologic Carbon Sequestration (GCS) as a proxy for the wider field of climate science communication, wherein we primarily investigate recent publications in GCS literature that produce scenario outcomes using apparently biased pro- or con- assumptions. A general review of scenario economics, capture process efficacy and specific examination of sequestration site assumptions and processes, reveals an apparent misrepresentation of what we consider to be a base-case GCS system. The authors demonstrate the influence of the apparent bias in primary assumptions on results from commonly referenced subsurface hydrology models. By use of moderate semi-analytical model simplification and Monte Carlo analysis of outcomes, we can establish the likely reality of any GCS scenario within a pragmatic middle ground. Secondarily, we review the development of publically available web-based computational tools and recent workshops where we presented interactive educational opportunities for public and institutional participants, with the goal of base-assumption awareness playing a central role. Through a series of interactive ‘what if’ scenarios, workshop participants were able to customize the models, which continue to be available from the Princeton University Subsurface Hydrology Research Group, and develop a better comprehension of subsurface factors contributing to GCS. Considering that the models are customizable, a simplified mock-up of regional GCS scenarios can be developed, which provides a possible pathway for informal, industrial, scientific or government communication of GCS concepts and likely scenarios. We believe continued availability, customizable scenarios, and simplifying assumptions are an exemplary means to communicate the possible outcome of CO2 sequestration projects; the associated risk; and, of no small importance, the consequences of base assumptions on predicted outcome.

Quantifying the economic competitiveness of cellulosic biofuel pathways under uncertainty and regional sensitivity

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Brown, Tristan R.

The revised Renewable Fuel Standard requires the annual blending of 16 billion gallons of cellulosic biofuel by 2022 from zero gallons in 2009. The necessary capacity investments have been underwhelming to date, however, and little is known about the likely composition of the future cellulosic biofuel industry as a result. This dissertation develops a framework for identifying and analyzing the industry's likely future composition while also providing a possible explanation for why investment in cellulosic biofuels capacity has been low to date. The results of this dissertation indicate that few cellulosic biofuel pathways will be economically competitive with petroleum on an unsubsidized basis. Of five cellulosic biofuel pathways considered under 20-year price forecasts with volatility, only two achieve positive mean 20-year net present value (NPV) probabilities. Furthermore, recent exploitation of U.S. shale gas reserves and the subsequent fall in U.S. natural gas prices have negatively impacted the economic competitiveness of all but two of the cellulosic biofuel pathways considered; only two of the five pathways achieve substantially higher 20-year NPVs under a post-shale gas economic scenario relative to a pre-shale gas scenario. The economic competitiveness of cellulosic biofuel pathways with petroleum is reduced further when considered under price uncertainty in combination with realistic financial assumptions. This dissertation calculates pathway-specific costs of capital for five cellulosic biofuel pathway scenarios. The analysis finds that the large majority of the scenarios incur costs of capital that are substantially higher than those commonly assumed in the literature. Employment of these costs of capital in a comparative TEA greatly reduces the mean 20-year NPVs for each pathway while increasing their 10-year probabilities of default to above 80% for all five scenarios. Finally, this dissertation quantifies the economic competitiveness of six cellulosic biofuel pathways being commercialized in eight different U.S. states under price uncertainty, utilization of pathway-specific costs of capital, and region-specific economic factors. 10-year probabilities of default in excess of 60% are calculated for all eight location scenarios considered, with default probabilities in excess of 98% calculated for seven of the eight. Negative mean 20-year NPVs are calculated for seven of the eight location scenarios.

Using SCR methods to analyze requirements documentation

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Callahan, John; Morrison, Jeffery

1995-01-01

Software Cost Reduction (SCR) methods are being utilized to analyze and verify selected parts of NASA's EOS-DIS Core System (ECS) requirements documentation. SCR is being used as a spot-inspection tool. Through this formal and systematic approach of the SCR requirements methods, insights as to whether the requirements are internally inconsistent or incomplete as the scenarios of intended usage evolve in the OC (Operations Concept) documentation. Thus, by modelling the scenarios and requirements as mode charts using the SCR methods, we have been able to identify problems within and between the documents.

Towards Ubiquitous Peer Review Strategies to Sustain and Enhance a Clinical Knowledge Management Framework

PubMed Central

Rocha, Roberto A.; Bradshaw, Richard L.; Bigelow, Sharon M.; Hanna, Timothy P.; Fiol, Guilherme Del; Hulse, Nathan C.; Roemer, Lorrie K.; Wilkinson, Steven G.

2006-01-01

Widespread cooperation between domain experts and front-line clinicians is a key component of any successful clinical knowledge management framework. Peer review is an established form of cooperation that promotes the dissemination of new knowledge. The authors describe three peer collaboration scenarios that have been implemented using the knowledge management infrastructure available at Intermountain Healthcare. Utilization results illustrating the early adoption patterns of the proposed scenarios are presented and discussed, along with succinct descriptions of planned enhancements and future implementation efforts. PMID:17238422

Journal of Air Transportation, Volume 9, No. 2. Volume 9, No. 2

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Bowen, Brent (Editor); Kabashkin, Igor (Editor); Gudmundsson, Sveinn Vidar (Editor); Scarpellini, Nanette (Editor)

2004-01-01

The following articles from the "Journal of Air Transportation" were processed: Future Requirements and Concepts for Cabins of Blended Wing Body Configurations:A Scenario Approach; Future Scenarios for the European Airline Industry: A Marketing-Based Perspective; An Application of the Methodology for Assessment of the Sustainability of the Air Transport System; Modeling the Effect of Enlarged Seating Room on Passenger Preferences of Domestic Airlines in Taiwan; Developing a Fleet Standardization Index for Airline Pricing; and Future Airport Capacity Utilization in Germany: Peaked Congestion and/or Idle Capacity).

Visual Communication and Cognition in Everyday Decision-Making.

PubMed

Jaenichen, Claudine

2017-01-01

Understanding cognition and the context of decision-making should be prioritized in the design process in order to accurately anticipate the outcome for intended audiences. A thorough understanding of cognition has been excluded from being a part of foundational design principals in visual communication. By defining leisure, direct, urgent, and emergency scenarios and providing examples of work that deeply considers the viewer's relationship to the design solution in context of these scenarios allows us to affirm the relevancy of cognition as a design variable and the importance of projects that advocate public utility.

A Labor Market Analysis of the Electricity Sector for 2030 using the National Energy with Weather System Simulator

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Terry, L.; Clack, C.; Marquis, M.; Paine, J.; Picciano, P.

2015-12-01

We conducted an analysis that utilized the National Renewable Energy Laboratory's (NREL) Jobs and Economic Development Impact (JEDI) models to estimate the temporary and permanent jobs, earnings, and state sales tax revenues that would be created by various scenarios of the National Energy with Weather System (NEWS) simulator. This simulator was created by a collaboration between the Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences (CIRES) at the University of Colorado and the Earth Systems Research Laboratory (ESRL NOAA). The NEWS simulator used three years of high-resolution (13-km, hourly) weather and power data to select the most cost-efficient, resource-maximizing, and complementary locations for wind, solar photovoltaic, and natural gas power plants along with high-voltage direct-current transmission, thereby providing the cheapest possible electricity grid that facilitates the incorporation of large amounts of wind and solar PV. We applied various assumptions to ensure that we produced conservative estimates, while keeping costs in line with those of the NEWS simulator. Our analysis shows that under the lowest carbon-emitting scenario of the NEWS carried out (80% reduction in CO2 compared with 1990 levels), almost ten million new jobs could be created by 2030. Of those jobs, over 400,000 would be permanently supporting the operations of the power plants. That particular scenario would also add over 500 billion to the paychecks of American workers and 75 billion to state tax revenues by 2030. All of this is achieved with average electricity costs of 10.7¢/kWh, because the electric system relies less heavily on fuel and more on jobs constructing, operating, and maintaining infrastructure. We use the current presentation to describe the methods used to reach these findings and examine some potential impacts of our estimates on public policy. Although we are able to identify some systematic problems with the JEDI model, we find that these problems are unavoidable due to the limited data available about the new renewable energy industry. Our discussion will include estimates for many of the twenty-seven NEWS-generated energy mix scenarios, comparisons of the jobs gained through a lower-carbon energy mix to those lost by the coal industry, and the directions for future study.

Technology Assessment for External Implementation of Artificial Gravity Utilizing the Deep Space Gateway Platform

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Raychev, R.; Griko, Y. V.

2018-02-01

Scenario drafting for early technology assessment of the external space centrifuge with little mass and variable radius of rotation is proposed to counteract micro gravity-associated physiological alterations in all physiological systems.

Optimal location of radiation therapy centers with respect to geographic access.

PubMed

Santibáñez, Pablo; Gaudet, Marc; French, John; Liu, Emma; Tyldesley, Scott

2014-07-15

To develop a framework with which to evaluate locations of radiation therapy (RT) centers in a region based on geographic access. Patient records were obtained for all external beam radiation therapy started in 2011 for the province of British Columbia, Canada. Two metrics of geographic access were defined. The primary analysis was percentage of patients (coverage) within a 90-minute drive from an RT center (C90), and the secondary analysis was the average drive time (ADT) to an RT center. An integer programming model was developed to determine optimal center locations, catchment areas, and capacity required under different scenarios. Records consisted of 11,096 courses of radiation corresponding to 161,616 fractions. Baseline geographic access was estimated at 102.5 minutes ADT (each way, per fraction) and 75.9% C90. Adding 2 and 3 new centers increased C90 to 88% and 92%, respectively, and decreased ADT by between 43% and 61%, respectively. A scenario in which RT was provided in every potential location that could support at least 1 fully utilized linear accelerator resulted in 35.3 minutes' ADT and 93.6% C90. The proposed framework and model provide a data-driven means to quantitatively evaluate alternative configurations of a regional RT system. Results suggest that the choice of location for future centers can significantly improve geographic access to RT. Copyright © 2014 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Improving Conflict Alert Performance Using Moving Target Detector Data.

DTIC Science & Technology

1982-06-01

2 L136 IIIII I lIlS 1 1 10 11120 125 11111I ~1.6 MICROCOPY RESOLUTION TEST CHART NATIONAL BUREAU Of SIANDARDg 19bi A DOT/FAA/RD-82/47 DOT/FAA/CT-81...Differences for Stochastic Case 23 7 Illustration of Scenarios for Warning Time Tests 30 8 Illustration of Scenarios Used for Nuisance Alert 35 Area...Nuisance Alert Area Analysis of Scenario 3 with a Target 64 Velocity of 480 Knots and SPMB= SPPB =2.8 nmi 12 Nuisance Alert Area Analysis of Scenario 3

Effects of a proposed rural dental school on regional dental workforce and access to care.

PubMed

Wanchek, Tanya N; Rephann, Terance J

2013-01-01

Southwest Virginia is a rural, low-income region with a relatively small dentist workforce and poor oral health outcomes. The opening of a dental school in the region has been proposed by policy-makers as one approach to improving the size of the dentist workforce and oral health outcomes. A policy simulation was conducted to assess how a hypothetical dental school in rural Southwest Virginia would affect the availability of dentists and utilization levels of dental services. The simulation focuses on two channels through which the dental school would most likely affect the region. First, the number of graduates who are expected to remain in the region was varied, based on the extensiveness of the education pipeline used to attract local students. Second, the number of patients treated in the dental school clinic under different dental school clinical models, including the traditional model, a patient-centered clinic model and a community-based clinic model, was varied in the simulation to obtain a range of additional dentists and utilization rates under differing dental school models. Under a set of plausible assumptions, the low yield scenario (ie private school with a traditional clinic) would result in three additional dentists residing in the region and a total of 8090 additional underserved patients receiving care. Under the high yield scenario (ie dental pipeline program with community based clinics) nine new dentists would reside in the region and as many as 18 054 underserved patients would receive care. Even with the high yield scenario and the strong assumption that these patients would not otherwise access care, the utilization rate increases to 68.9% from its current 60.1%. While the new dental school in Southwest Virginia would increase the dentist workforce and utilization rates, the high cost combined with the continued low rate of dental utilization suggests that there may be more effective alternatives to improving oral health in rural areas. Alternative policies that have shown considerable promise in expanding access to disadvantaged populations include virtual dental homes, enhanced Medicaid reimbursement programs, and school-based dental care systems.

Energy crops on landfills: functional, environmental, and costs analysis of different landfill configurations.

PubMed

Pivato, Alberto; Garbo, Francesco; Moretto, Marco; Lavagnolo, Maria Cristina

2018-02-09

The cultivation of energy crops on landfills represents an important challenge for the near future, as the possibility to use devalued sites for energy production is very attractive. In this study, four scenarios have been assessed and compared with respect to a reference case defined for northern Italy. The scenarios were defined taking into consideration current energy crops issues. In particular, the first three scenarios were based on energy maximisation, phytotreatment ability, and environmental impact, respectively. The fourth scenario was a combination of these characteristics emphasised by the previous scenarios. A multi-criteria analysis, based on economic, energetic, and environmental aspects, was performed. From the analysis, the best scenario resulted to be the fourth, with its ability to pursue several objectives simultaneously and obtain the best score relatively to both environmental and energetic criteria. On the contrary, the economic criterion emerges as weak, as all the considered scenarios showed some limits from this point of view. Important indications for future designs can be derived. The decrease of leachate production due to the presence of energy crops on the top cover, which enhances evapotranspiration, represents a favourable but critical aspect in the definition of the results.

2nd Generation Reusable Launch Vehicle Potential Commercial Development Scenarios

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Creech, Stephen D.; Rogacki, John R. (Technical Monitor)

2001-01-01

The presentation will discuss potential commercial development scenarios for a Second Generation Reusable Launch Vehicle. The analysis of potential scenarios will include commercial rates of return, government return on investment, and market considerations. The presentation will include policy considerations in addition to analysis of Second Generation Reusable Launch Vehicle economics. The data discussed is being developed as a part of NASA's Second Generation Reusable Launch Vehicle Program, for consideration as potential scenarios for enabling a next generation system. Material will include potential scenarios not previously considered by NASA or presented at other conferences. Candidate paper has not been presented at a previous meeting, and conference attendance of the author has been approved by NASA.

Towards Design of Sustainable Energy Systems in Developing Countries: Centralized and Localized Options

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kursun, Berrin

Energy use in developing countries is projected to equal and exceed the demand in developed countries in the next five years. Growing concern about environmental problems, depletion and price fluctuation of fossil fuels pushes the efforts for meeting energy demand in an environmentally friendly and sustainable way. Hence, it is essential to design energy systems consisting of centralized and localized options that generate the optimum energy mix to meet this increasing energy demand in a sustainable manner. In this study, we try to answer the question, "How can the energy demand in Rampura village be met sustainably?" via two centralized clean coal (CCC) technology and three localized energy technology options analyzed. We perform the analysis of these energy technologies through joint use of donor-side analysis technique emergy analysis (EA) and user-side analysis technique life cycle assessment (LCA). Sustainability of such an energy combination depends on its reliance on renewable inputs rather than nonrenewable or purchased inputs. CCC technologies are unsustainable energy systems dependent on purchased external inputs almost 100%. However, increased efficiency and significantly lower environmental impacts of CCC technologies can lead to more environmentally benign utilization of coal as an energy source. CCC technologies supply electricity at a lower price compared to the localized energy options investigated. Localized energy options analyzed include multi-crystalline solar PV, floating drum biogas digester and downdraft biomass gasifier. Solar PV has the lowest water and land use, however, solar electricity has the highest price with a high global warming potential (GWP). Contrary to general opinion, solar electricity is highly non-renewable. Although solar energy is a 100% renewable natural resource, materials utilized in the production of solar panels are mostly non-renewable purchased inputs causing the low renewability of solar electricity. Best sustainability results are obtained for full capacity operation in anaerobic digestion and for single fuel mode (SFM) operation in biomass gasification. For both of the processes, cost of electricity reduces 2-3 times if they are operated properly. However, there is not enough ipomea to run the biomass gasifier in SFM in Rampura, hence optimum operation scheme is ideal dual fuel mode (DFM) operation for the biomass gasifier analyzed. Emergy analysis of Rampura village and its subsystems reveal that sustainability is not achieved both at the village and in the subsystems levels since they are highly dependent on non-renewable material and energy inputs. To improve the overall sustainability in Rampura, dependency on purchased inputs fodder, fertilizer and diesel, non-renewable cooking fuel wood should be reduced. In satisfying energy demand in Rampura, biogas cooking and 70% biogas cooking scenarios perform better than electricity options in all of the objectives considered. Other than minimum land and water use objectives, electricity-RM and electricity-GM scenarios overlap and do not have a significant difference in terms of performance. Based on these results, the best option to meet the energy demand in Rampura would be to meet all the cooking energy with direct use of biogas. However, 70% biogas cooking scenario may be a more practical option since it both satisfies energy demand in an environmentally benign manner and satisfies the cultural needs of Rampura people. When 30% of cooking is performed by utilizing improved biomass cook stoves in the traditional way, the biogas potential becomes enough to meet all the remaining energy demand (70% of cooking, lighting and irrigation) in Rampura, hence energy security and reliability are ensured. Furthermore, utilizing biogas for cooking enables more agricultural residues to be available as fodder and eases the pressure on environment due to excessive woody biomass harvesting. Additionally, CH4 emissions from cow dung are avoided via production of biogas while the sanitation improves in the area. The GHG emissions related to cooking with inefficient cook stoves are also significantly mitigated through the use of biogas and improved biomass cook stoves. Energy demand in developing countries is subject to increase with increasing prosperity and consumerism. This increasing energy demand will necessitate the utilization of centralized energy options even in the rural areas of developing countries in the near future. Utilizing centralized clean coal technologies to meet this demand can ease energy related environmental problems, especially global warming significantly. And, adopting conscious and renewable energy oriented consumption patterns, avoiding consumption beyond the carrying capacity of these regions can contribute to achieve global level sustainability and ease the environmental burdens and problems in the developing countries.

Benefit-Cost Analysis of Integrated Paratransit Systems : Volume 3. Scenario Analysis.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

1979-09-01

This is the third volume of a six-volume report documenting the results of a study entitled "Benefit-Cost Analysis of Integrated Paratransit Systems." This volume provides detailed results of a series of scenario analyses designed to determine the im...

Assessment of the emissions and air quality impacts of biomass and biogas use in California.

PubMed

Carreras-Sospedra, Marc; Williams, Robert; Dabdub, Donald

2016-02-01

It is estimated that there is sufficient in-state "technically" recoverable biomass to support nearly 4000 MW of bioelectricity generation capacity. This study assesses the emissions of greenhouse gases and air pollutants and resulting air quality impacts of new and existing bioenergy capacity throughout the state of California, focusing on feedstocks and advanced technologies utilizing biomass resources predominant in each region. The options for bioresources include the production of bioelectricity and renewable natural gas (NG). Emissions of criteria pollutants and greenhouse gases are quantified for a set of scenarios that span the emission factors for power generation and the use of renewable natural gas for vehicle fueling. Emissions are input to the Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ) model to predict regional and statewide temporal air quality impacts from the biopower scenarios. With current technology and at the emission levels of current installations, maximum bioelectricity production could increase nitrogen oxide (NOx) emissions by 10% in 2020, which would cause increases in ozone and particulate matter concentrations in large areas of California. Technology upgrades would achieve the lowest criteria pollutant emissions. Conversion of biomass to compressed NG (CNG) for vehicles would achieve comparable emission reductions of criteria pollutants and minimize emissions of greenhouse gases (GHG). Air quality modeling of biomass scenarios suggest that applying technological changes and emission controls would minimize the air quality impacts of bioelectricity generation. And a shift from bioelectricity production to CNG production for vehicles would reduce air quality impacts further. From a co-benefits standpoint, CNG production for vehicles appears to provide the best benefits in terms of GHG emissions and air quality. This investigation provides a consistent analysis of air quality impacts and greenhouse gas emissions for scenarios examining increased biomass use. Further work involving economic assessment, seasonal or annual emissions and air quality modeling, and potential exposure analysis would help inform policy makers and industry with respect to further development and direction of biomass policy and bioenergy technology alternatives needed to meet energy and environmental goals in California.

Retention payoff-based cost per day open regression equations: Application in a user-friendly decision support tool for investment analysis of automated estrus detection technologies.

PubMed

Dolecheck, K A; Heersche, G; Bewley, J M

2016-12-01

Assessing the economic implications of investing in automated estrus detection (AED) technologies can be overwhelming for dairy producers. The objectives of this study were to develop new regression equations for estimating the cost per day open (DO) and to apply the results to create a user-friendly, partial budget, decision support tool for investment analysis of AED technologies. In the resulting decision support tool, the end user can adjust herd-specific inputs regarding general management, current reproductive management strategies, and the proposed AED system. Outputs include expected DO, reproductive cull rate, net present value, and payback period for the proposed AED system. Utility of the decision support tool was demonstrated with an example dairy herd created using data from DairyMetrics (Dairy Records Management Systems, Raleigh, NC), Food and Agricultural Policy Research Institute (Columbia, MO), and published literature. Resulting herd size, rolling herd average milk production, milk price, and feed cost were 323 cows, 10,758kg, $0.41/kg, and $0.20/kg of dry matter, respectively. Automated estrus detection technologies with 2 levels of initial system cost (low: $5,000 vs. high: $10,000), tag price (low: $50 vs. high: $100), and estrus detection rate (low: 60% vs. high: 80%) were compared over a 7-yr investment period. Four scenarios were considered in a demonstration of the investment analysis tool: (1) a herd using 100% visual observation for estrus detection before adopting 100% AED, (2) a herd using 100% visual observation before adopting 75% AED and 25% visual observation, (3) a herd using 100% timed artificial insemination (TAI) before adopting 100% AED, and (4) a herd using 100% TAI before adopting 75% AED and 25% TAI. Net present value in scenarios 1 and 2 was always positive, indicating a positive investment situation. Net present value in scenarios 3 and 4 was always positive in combinations using a $50 tag price, and in scenario 4, the $5,000, $100, and 80% combination. Overall, the payback period ranged from 1.6 yr to greater than 10 yr. Investment analysis demonstration results were highly dependent on assumptions, especially AED system initial investment and labor costs. Dairy producers can use herd-specific inputs with the cost per day open regression equations and the decision support tool to estimate individual herd results. Copyright © 2016 American Dairy Science Association. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Scenarios to prioritize observing activities on the North Slope, Alaska in the context of resource development, climate change and socio-economic uncertainties

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lee, O. A.; Eicken, H.; Payne, J. F.; Lassuy, D.

2014-12-01

The North Slope of Alaska is experiencing rapid changes in response to interacting climate and socioeconomic drivers. The North Slope Science Initiative (NSSI) is using scenarios as a tool to identify plausible, spatially explicit future states of resource extraction activities on the North Slope and adjacent seas through the year 2040. The objective of the scenarios process is to strategically assess research and monitoring needs on the North Slope. The participatory scenarios process involved stakeholder input (including Federal, State, local, academic, industry and non-profit representatives) to identify key drivers of change related to resource extraction activities on the North Slope. While climate change was identified as a key driver in the biophysical system, economic drivers related to oil and gas development were also important. Expert-reviewed informational materials were developed to help stakeholders obtain baseline knowledge and stimulate discussions about interactions between drivers, knowledge gaps and uncertainties. Map-based scenario products will allow mission-oriented agencies to jointly explore where to prioritize research investments and address risk in a complex, changing environment. Scenarios consider multidecadal timescales. However, tracking of indicator variables derived from scenarios can lead to important insights about the trajectory of the North Slope social-environmental system and inform management decisions to reduce risk on much shorter timescales. The inclusion of stakeholders helps provide a broad spectrum of expert viewpoints necessary for considering the range of plausible scenarios. A well-defined focal question, transparency in the participation process and continued outreach about the utility and limitations of scenarios are also important components of the scenarios process.

Around Marshall

NASA Image and Video Library

1993-09-15

Virtual Reality (VR) can provide cost effective methods to design and evaluate components and systems for maintenance and refurbishment operations. The Marshall Space Flight Centerr (MSFC) in Huntsville, Alabama began to utilize VR for design analysis in the X-34 experimental reusable space vehicle. Analysts at MSFC's Computer Applications and Virtual Environments (CAVE) used Head Mounted Displays (HMD) (pictured), spatial trackers and gesture inputs as a means to animate or inhabit a properly sized virtual human model. These models were used in a VR scenario as a way to determine functionality of space and maintenance requirements for the virtual X-34. The primary functions of the virtual X-34 mockup was to support operations development and design analysis for engine removal, the engine compartment and the aft fuselage. This capability provided general visualization support to engineers and designers at MSFC and to the System Design Freeze Review at Orbital Sciences Corporation (OSC). The X-34 program was cancelled in 2001.

Around Marshall

NASA Image and Video Library

1993-09-15

Virtual Reality (VR) can provide cost effective methods to design and evaluate components and systems for maintenance and refurbishment operations. The Marshall Space Flight Center (MSFC) in Huntsville, Alabama began to utilize VR for design analysis in the X-34 experimental reusable space vehicle. Analysts at MSFC's Computer Applications and Virtual Environments (CAVE) used Head Mounted Displays (HMD) (pictured), spatial trackers and gesture inputs as a means to animate or inhabit a properly sized virtual human model. These models were used in a VR scenario as a way to determine functionality of space and maintenance requirements for the virtual X-34. The primary functions of the virtual X-34 mockup was to support operations development and design analysis for engine removal, the engine compartment and the aft fuselage. This capability providedgeneral visualization support to engineers and designers at MSFC and to the System Design Freeze Review at Orbital Sciences Corporation (OSC). The X-34 program was cancelled in 2001.

Marshall Engineers Use Virtual Reality

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

1993-01-01

Virtual Reality (VR) can provide cost effective methods to design and evaluate components and systems for maintenance and refurbishment operations. Marshall Spce Flight Center (MSFC) is begirning to utilize VR for design analysis in the X-34 experimental reusable space vehicle. Analysts at MSFC's Computer Applications and Virtual Environments (CAVE) used Head Mounted Displays (HMD) (pictured), spatial trackers and gesture inputs as a means to animate or inhabit a properly sized virtual human model. These models are used in a VR scenario as a way to determine functionality of space and maintenance requirements for the virtual X-34. The primary functions of the virtual X-34 mockup is to support operations development and design analysis for engine removal, the engine compartment and the aft fuselage. This capability provides general visualization support to engineers and designers at MSFC and to the System Design Freeze Review at Orbital Sciences Corporation (OSC).

Turbulence flight director analysis and preliminary simulation

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Johnson, D. E.; Klein, R. E.

1974-01-01

A control column and trottle flight director display system is synthesized for use during flight through severe turbulence. The column system is designed to minimize airspeed excursions without overdriving attitude. The throttle system is designed to augment the airspeed regulation and provide an indication of the trim thrust required for any desired flight path angle. Together they form an energy management system to provide harmonious display indications of current aircraft motions and required corrective action, minimize gust upset tendencies, minimize unsafe aircraft excursions, and maintain satisfactory ride qualities. A preliminary fixed-base piloted simulation verified the analysis and provided a shakedown for a more sophisticated moving-base simulation to be accomplished next. This preliminary simulation utilized a flight scenario concept combining piloting tasks, random turbulence, and discrete gusts to create a high but realistic pilot workload conducive to pilot error and potential upset. The turbulence director (energy management) system significantly reduced pilot workload and minimized unsafe aircraft excursions.

Computer Applications and Virtual Environments (CAVE)

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

1993-01-01

Virtual Reality (VR) can provide cost effective methods to design and evaluate components and systems for maintenance and refurbishment operations. Marshall SPace Flight Center (MSFC) is begirning to utilize VR for design analysis in the X-34 experimental reusable space vehicle. Analysts at MSFC's Computer Applications and Virtual Environments (CAVE) used Head Mounted Displays (HMD) (pictured), spatial trackers and gesture inputs as a means to animate or inhabit a properly sized virtual human model. These models are used in a VR scenario as a way to determine functionality of space and maintenance requirements for the virtual X-34. The primary functions of the virtual X-34 mockup is to support operations development and design analysis for engine removal, the engine compartment and the aft fuselage. This capability provides general visualization support to engineers and designers at MSFC and to the System Design Freeze Review at Orbital Sciences Corporation (OSC).

Analysis of In-Route Wireless Charging for the Shuttle System at Zion National Park

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Meintz, Andrew; Prohaska, Robert; Konan, Arnaud

System right-sizing is critical to implementation of wireless power transfer (WPT) for electric vehicles. This study will analyze potential WPT scenarios for the electrification of shuttle buses at Zion National Park utilizing a modelling tool developed by the National Renewable Energy Laboratory called WPTSim. This tool uses second-by-second speed, location, and road grade data from the conventional shuttles in operation to simulate the incorporation of WPT at fine granularity. Vehicle power and state of charge are simulated over the drive cycle to evaluate potential system designs. The required battery capacity is determined based on the rated power at a variablemore » number of charging locations. The outcome of this work is an analysis of the design tradeoffs for the electrification of the shuttle fleet with wireless charging versus conventional overnight charging.« less

ComputerApplications and Virtual Environments (CAVE)

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

1993-01-01

Virtual Reality (VR) can provide cost effective methods to design and evaluate components and systems for maintenance and refurbishment operations. The Marshall Space Flight Center (MSFC) in Huntsville, Alabama began to utilize VR for design analysis in the X-34 experimental reusable space vehicle. Analysts at MSFC's Computer Applications and Virtual Environments (CAVE) used Head Mounted Displays (HMD) (pictured), spatial trackers and gesture inputs as a means to animate or inhabit a properly sized virtual human model. These models were used in a VR scenario as a way to determine functionality of space and maintenance requirements for the virtual X-34. The primary functions of the virtual X-34 mockup was to support operations development and design analysis for engine removal, the engine compartment and the aft fuselage. This capability providedgeneral visualization support to engineers and designers at MSFC and to the System Design Freeze Review at Orbital Sciences Corporation (OSC). The X-34 program was cancelled in 2001.

ComputerApplications and Virtual Environments (CAVE)

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

1993-01-01

Virtual Reality (VR) can provide cost effective methods to design and evaluate components and systems for maintenance and refurbishment operations. The Marshall Space Flight Centerr (MSFC) in Huntsville, Alabama began to utilize VR for design analysis in the X-34 experimental reusable space vehicle. Analysts at MSFC's Computer Applications and Virtual Environments (CAVE) used Head Mounted Displays (HMD) (pictured), spatial trackers and gesture inputs as a means to animate or inhabit a properly sized virtual human model. These models were used in a VR scenario as a way to determine functionality of space and maintenance requirements for the virtual X-34. The primary functions of the virtual X-34 mockup was to support operations development and design analysis for engine removal, the engine compartment and the aft fuselage. This capability provided general visualization support to engineers and designers at MSFC and to the System Design Freeze Review at Orbital Sciences Corporation (OSC). The X-34 program was cancelled in 2001.

ATMOSPHERIC AEROSOL SOURCE-RECEPTOR RELATIONSHIPS: THE ROLE OF COAL-FIRED POWER PLANTS

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Allen L. Robinson; Spyros N. Pandis; Cliff I. Davidson

2004-12-01

This report describes the technical progress made on the Pittsburgh Air Quality Study (PAQS) during the period of March 2004 through August 2004. Significant progress was made this project period on the analysis of ambient data, source apportionment, and deterministic modeling activities. Results highlighted in this report include evaluation of the performance of PMCAMx+ for an air pollution episode in the Eastern US, an emission profile for a coke production facility, ultrafine particle composition during a nucleation event, and a new hybrid approach for source apportionment. An agreement was reached with a utility to characterize fine particle and mercury emissionsmore » from a commercial coal fired power. Research in the next project period will include source testing of a coal fired power plant, source apportionment analysis, emission scenario modeling with PMCAMx+, and writing up results for submission as journal articles.« less

Natural environment application for NASP-X-30 design and mission planning

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Johnson, D. L.; Hill, C. K.; Brown, S. C.; Batts, G. W.

1993-01-01

The NASA/MSFC Mission Analysis Program has recently been utilized in various National Aero-Space Plane (NASP) mission and operational planning scenarios. This paper focuses on presenting various atmospheric constraint statistics based on assumed NASP mission phases using established natural environment design, parametric, threshold values. Probabilities of no-go are calculated using atmospheric parameters such as temperature, humidity, density altitude, peak/steady-state winds, cloud cover/ceiling, thunderstorms, and precipitation. The program although developed to evaluate test or operational missions after flight constraints have been established, can provide valuable information in the design phase of the NASP X-30 program. Inputting the design values as flight constraints the Mission Analysis Program returns the probability of no-go, or launch delay, by hour by month. This output tells the X-30 program manager whether the design values are stringent enough to meet his required test flight schedules.

Accessibility assessment of Houston's roadway network during Harvey through integration of observed flood impacts and hydrologic modeling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gidaris, I.; Gori, A.; Panakkal, P.; Padgett, J.; Bedient, P. B.

2017-12-01

The record-breaking rainfall produced over the Houston region by Hurricane Harvey resulted in catastrophic and unprecedented impacts on the region's infrastructure. Notably, Houston's transportation network was crippled, with almost every major highway flooded during the five-day event. Entire neighborhoods and subdivisions were inundated, rendering them completely inaccessible to rescue crews and emergency services. Harvey has tragically highlighted the vulnerability of major thoroughfares, as well as neighborhood roads, to severe inundation during extreme precipitation events. Furthermore, it has emphasized the need for detailed accessibility characterization of road networks under extreme event scenarios in order to determine which areas of the city are most vulnerable. This analysis assesses and tracks the accessibility of Houston's major highways during Harvey's evolution by utilizing road flood/closure data from the Texas DOT. In the absence of flooded/closure data for local roads, a hybrid approach is adopted that utilizes a physics-based hydrologic model to produce high-resolution inundation estimates for selected urban watersheds in the Houston area. In particular, hydrologic output in the form of inundation depths is used to estimate the operability of local roads. Ultimately, integration of hydrologic-based estimation of road conditions with observed data from DOT supports a network accessibility analysis of selected urban neighborhoods. This accessibility analysis can identify operable routes for emergency response (rescue crews, medical services, etc.) during the storm event.

Model Performance Evaluation and Scenario Analysis (MPESA)

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

Model Performance Evaluation and Scenario Analysis (MPESA) assesses the performance with which models predict time series data. The tool was developed Hydrological Simulation Program-Fortran (HSPF) and the Stormwater Management Model (SWMM)

An analysis of international nuclear fuel supply options

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Taylor, J'tia Patrice

As the global demand for energy grows, many nations are considering developing or increasing nuclear capacity as a viable, long-term power source. To assess the possible expansion of nuclear power and the intricate relationships---which cover the range of economics, security, and material supply and demand---between established and aspirant nuclear generating entities requires models and system analysis tools that integrate all aspects of the nuclear enterprise. Computational tools and methods now exist across diverse research areas, such as operations research and nuclear engineering, to develop such a tool. This dissertation aims to develop methodologies and employ and expand on existing sources to develop a multipurpose tool to analyze international nuclear fuel supply options. The dissertation is comprised of two distinct components: the development of the Material, Economics, and Proliferation Assessment Tool (MEPAT), and analysis of fuel cycle scenarios using the tool. Development of MEPAT is aimed for unrestricted distribution and therefore uses publicly available and open-source codes in its development when possible. MEPAT is built using the Powersim Studio platform that is widely used in systems analysis. MEPAT development is divided into three modules focusing on: material movement; nonproliferation; and economics. The material movement module tracks material quantity in each process of the fuel cycle and in each nuclear program with respect to ownership, location and composition. The material movement module builds on techniques employed by fuel cycle models such as the Verifiable Fuel Cycle Simulation (VISION) code developed at the Idaho National Laboratory under the Advanced Fuel Cycle Initiative (AFCI) for the analysis of domestic fuel cycle. Material movement parameters such as lending and reactor preference, as well as fuel cycle parameters such as process times and material factors are user-specified through a Microsoft Excel(c) data spreadsheet. The material movement module is the largest of the three, and the two other modules that assess nonproliferation and economics of the options are dependent on its output. Proliferation resistance measures from literature are modified and incorporated in MEPAT. The module to assess the nonproliferation of the supply options allows the user to specify defining attributes for the fuel cycle processes, and determines significant quantities of materials as well as measures of proliferation resistance. The measure is dependent on user-input and material information. The economics module allows the user to specify costs associated with different processes and other aspects of the fuel cycle. The simulation tool then calculates economic measures that relate the cost of the fuel cycle to electricity production. The second part of this dissertation consists of an examination of four scenarios of fuel supply option using MEPAT. The first is a simple scenario illustrating the modules and basic functions of MEPAT. The second scenario recreates a fuel supply study reported earlier in literature, and compares MEPAT results with those reported earlier for validation. The third, and a rather realistic, scenario includes four nuclear programs with one program entering the nuclear energy market. The fourth scenario assesses the reactor options available to the Hashemite Kingdom of Jordan, which is currently assessing available options to introduce nuclear power in the country. The methodology developed and implemented in MEPAT to analyze the material, proliferation and economics of nuclear fuel supply options is expected to help simplify and assess different reactor and fuel options available to utilities, government agencies and international organizations.

The Importance of Animal Source Foods for Nutrient Sufficiency in the Developing World: The Zambia Scenario.

PubMed

Zhang, Zhiying; Goldsmith, Peter D; Winter-Nelson, Alex

2016-05-05

There have been successful interventions fortifying staple foods to mobilize micronutrients as well as agricultural efforts to raise yields of staple foods to increase food availability. Zambia serves as an interesting case study because since 1961 there has been a notable decline in the availability of animal source foods (ASFs) and pulses and a significant increase in the supply of cassava and vegetable oils. The shift in food availability was partly attributed to the agricultural success in high-yielding and drought-resistant varieties that made cassava and oil crops more affordable and readily available. In this research, we explore another policy strategy that involves ASF as a mechanism to help remedy micronutrient inadequacies in a population. A scenario modeling analysis compares the changes in the nutrient profile of the Zambian diet through adding either staple plant source foods (PSFs) or ASFs. The scenarios under study involve the addition of (1) 18 fl oz of whole cow's milk; (2) 60 g of beef, 30 g of chicken, and 5 g of beef liver; (3) milk plus meat; or (4) 83 g of maize flour, 123 g of cassava, and other staple PSF, that is, isocaloric to the "milk + meat" group. The findings alert program planners and policy makers to the value of increasing the availability, accessibility, and utilization of ASF to simultaneously address multiple nutrient deficiencies, as well as the nutrition challenges that remain when expanding the availability of plant-based staples. © The Author(s) 2016.

Clinical utility of FDG-PET for the differential diagnosis among the main forms of dementia.

PubMed

Nestor, Peter J; Altomare, Daniele; Festari, Cristina; Drzezga, Alexander; Rivolta, Jasmine; Walker, Zuzana; Bouwman, Femke; Orini, Stefania; Law, Ian; Agosta, Federica; Arbizu, Javier; Boccardi, Marina; Nobili, Flavio; Frisoni, Giovanni Battista

2018-05-07

To assess the clinical utility of FDG-PET as a diagnostic aid for differentiating Alzheimer's disease (AD; both typical and atypical forms), dementia with Lewy bodies (DLB), frontotemporal lobar degeneration (FTLD), vascular dementia (VaD) and non-degenerative pseudodementia. A comprehensive literature search was conducted using the PICO model to extract evidence from relevant studies. An expert panel then voted on six different diagnostic scenarios using the Delphi method. The level of empirical study evidence for the use of FDG-PET was considered good for the discrimination of DLB and AD; fair for discriminating FTLD from AD; poor for atypical AD; and lacking for discriminating DLB from FTLD, AD from VaD, and for pseudodementia. Delphi voting led to consensus in all scenarios within two iterations. Panellists supported the use of FDG-PET for all PICOs-including those where study evidence was poor or lacking-based on its negative predictive value and on the assistance it provides when typical patterns of hypometabolism for a given diagnosis are observed. Although there is an overall lack of evidence on which to base strong recommendations, it was generally concluded that FDG-PET has a diagnostic role in all scenarios. Prospective studies targeting diagnostically uncertain patients for assessing the added value of FDG-PET would be highly desirable.

Clinical utility of therapeutic drug monitoring in biological disease modifying anti-rheumatic drug treatment of rheumatic disorders: a systematic narrative review.

PubMed

Van Herwaarden, Noortje; Van Den Bemt, Bart J F; Wientjes, Maike H M; Kramers, Cornelis; Den Broeder, Alfons A

2017-08-01

Biological Disease Modifying Anti-Rheumatic Drugs (bDMARDs) have improved the treatment outcomes of inflammatory rheumatic diseases including Rheumatoid Arthritis and spondyloarthropathies. Inter-individual variation exists in (maintenance of) response to bDMARDs. Therapeutic Drug Monitoring (TDM) of bDMARDs could potentially help in optimizing treatment for the individual patient. Areas covered: Evidence of clinical utility of TDM in bDMARD treatment is reviewed. Different clinical scenarios will be discussed, including: prediction of response after start of treatment, prediction of response to a next bDMARD in case of treatment failure of the first, prediction of successful dose reduction or discontinuation in case of low disease activity, prediction of response to dose-escalation in case of active disease and prediction of response to bDMARD in case of flare in disease activity. Expert opinion: The limited available evidence does often not report important outcomes for diagnostic studies, such as sensitivity and specificity. In most clinical relevant scenarios, predictive value of serum (anti-) drug levels is absent, therefore the use of TDM of bDMARDs cannot be advocated. Well-designed prospective studies should be done to further investigate the promising scenarios to determine the place of TDM in clinical practice.

Oil palm biomass utilization as an energy source and its possibility use for polygeneration scenarios in Langsa City, Aceh Province, Indonesia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hani, M. R.; Mahidin, M.; Husin, H.; Hamdani, H.; Khairil, K.

2018-03-01

This article deals with the discussion on the recent status of oil palm biomass utilization as an energy source and its possibility use for polygeneration system. The discussion focused only on the energy viewpoint. At this point, many projects and research have been developed in order to utilize the oil palm biomass to meet the energy demand of industries and communities, especially in the largest producing countries: Indonesia and Malaysia; and a few in Thailand, Africa, Latin America and Europe. Through the simulation work in the case study, it is evident that the government of Langsa City can fulfill the fresh water to their community and electricity to Langsa Harbor only by using EFB and PKS from one POM with the generated power of 12 MW, while the desalination plant consumes about 7 MW of electricity. If all potency of biomass from all POMs in Aceh Timur and Aceh Tamiang, without the combination of other primary energy sources is used, Langsa City might earn surplus of energy. The use of the oil palm biomass for polygeneration scenarios is possible and feasible from the technical point of view.

Scenario analysis of the future of medicines.

PubMed Central

Leufkens, H.; Haaijer-Ruskamp, F.; Bakker, A.; Dukes, G.

1994-01-01

Planning future policy for medicines poses difficult problems. The main players in the drug business have their own views as to how the world around them functions and how the future of medicines should be shaped. In this paper we show how a scenario analysis can provide a powerful teaching device to readjust peoples' preconceptions. Scenarios are plausible, not probable or preferable, portraits of alternative futures. A series of four of alternative scenarios were constructed: "sobriety in sufficiency," "risk avoidance," "technology on demand," and "free market unfettered." Each scenario was drawn as a narrative, documented quantitatively wherever possible, that described the world as it might be if particular trends were to dominate development. The medical community and health policy markers may use scenarios to take a long term view in order to be prepared adequately for the future. PMID:7987110

Adaptive grid based multi-objective Cauchy differential evolution for stochastic dynamic economic emission dispatch with wind power uncertainty

PubMed Central

Lei, Xiaohui; Wang, Chao; Yue, Dong; Xie, Xiangpeng

2017-01-01

Since wind power is integrated into the thermal power operation system, dynamic economic emission dispatch (DEED) has become a new challenge due to its uncertain characteristics. This paper proposes an adaptive grid based multi-objective Cauchy differential evolution (AGB-MOCDE) for solving stochastic DEED with wind power uncertainty. To properly deal with wind power uncertainty, some scenarios are generated to simulate those possible situations by dividing the uncertainty domain into different intervals, the probability of each interval can be calculated using the cumulative distribution function, and a stochastic DEED model can be formulated under different scenarios. For enhancing the optimization efficiency, Cauchy mutation operation is utilized to improve differential evolution by adjusting the population diversity during the population evolution process, and an adaptive grid is constructed for retaining diversity distribution of Pareto front. With consideration of large number of generated scenarios, the reduction mechanism is carried out to decrease the scenarios number with covariance relationships, which can greatly decrease the computational complexity. Moreover, the constraint-handling technique is also utilized to deal with the system load balance while considering transmission loss among thermal units and wind farms, all the constraint limits can be satisfied under the permitted accuracy. After the proposed method is simulated on three test systems, the obtained results reveal that in comparison with other alternatives, the proposed AGB-MOCDE can optimize the DEED problem while handling all constraint limits, and the optimal scheme of stochastic DEED can decrease the conservation of interval optimization, which can provide a more valuable optimal scheme for real-world applications. PMID:28961262

Using Elicited Choice Probabilities in Hypothetical Elections to Study Decisions to Vote

PubMed Central

Delavande, Adeline; Manski, Charles F.

2015-01-01

This paper demonstrates the feasibility and usefulness of survey research asking respondents to report voting probabilities in hypothetical election scenarios. Posing scenarios enriches the data available for studies of voting decisions, as a researcher can pose many more and varied scenarios than the elections that persons actually face. Multiple scenarios were presented to over 4,000 participants in the American Life Panel (ALP). Each described a hypothetical presidential election, giving characteristics measuring candidate preference, closeness of the election, and the time cost of voting. Persons were asked the probability that they would vote in this election and were willing and able to respond. We analyzed the data through direct study of the variation of voting probabilities with election characteristics and through estimation of a random utility model of voting. Voting time and election closeness were notable determinants of decisions to vote, but not candidate preference. Most findings were corroborated through estimation of a model fit to ALP data on respondents' actual voting behavior in the 2012 election. PMID:25705068

Hubble induced mass after inflation in spectator field models

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Fujita, Tomohiro; Harigaya, Keisuke, E-mail: tomofuji@stanford.edu, E-mail: keisukeh@icrr.u-tokyo.ac.jp

2016-12-01

Spectator field models such as the curvaton scenario and the modulated reheating are attractive scenarios for the generation of the cosmic curvature perturbation, as the constraints on inflation models are relaxed. In this paper, we discuss the effect of Hubble induced masses on the dynamics of spectator fields after inflation. We pay particular attention to the Hubble induced mass by the kinetic energy of an oscillating inflaton, which is generically unsuppressed but often overlooked. In the curvaton scenario, the Hubble induced mass relaxes the constraint on the property of the inflaton and the curvaton, such as the reheating temperature andmore » the inflation scale. We comment on the implication of our discussion for baryogenesis in the curvaton scenario. In the modulated reheating, the predictions of models e.g. the non-gaussianity can be considerably altered. Furthermore, we propose a new model of the modulated reheating utilizing the Hubble induced mass which realizes a wide range of the local non-gaussianity parameter.« less

AgMIP Climate Data and Scenarios for Integrated Assessment. Chapter 3

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Ruane, Alexander C.; Winter, Jonathan M.; McDermid, Sonali P.; Hudson, Nicholas I.

2015-01-01

Climate change presents a great challenge to the agricultural sector as changes in precipitation, temperature, humidity, and circulation patterns alter the climatic conditions upon which many agricultural systems rely. Projections of future climate conditions are inherently uncertain owing to a lack of clarity on how society will develop, policies that may be implemented to reduce greenhouse-gas (GHG) emissions, and complexities in modeling the atmosphere, ocean, land, cryosphere, and biosphere components of the climate system. Global climate models (GCMs) are based on well-established physics of each climate component that enable the models to project climate responses to changing GHG concentration scenarios (Stocker et al., 2013).The most recent iteration of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5; Taylor et al., 2012) utilized representative concentration pathways (RCPs) to cover the range of plausible GHG concentrations out past the year 2100, with RCP8.5 representing an extreme scenario and RCP4.5 representing a lower concentrations scenario (Moss et al., 2010).

Life cycle assessment of flexibly fed biogas processes for an improved demand-oriented biogas supply.

PubMed

Ertem, Funda Cansu; Martínez-Blanco, Julia; Finkbeiner, Matthias; Neubauer, Peter; Junne, Stefan

2016-11-01

This paper analyses concepts to facilitate a demand oriented biogas supply at an agricultural biogas plant of a capacity of 500kWhel, operated with the co-digestion of maize, grass, rye silage and chicken manure. In contrast to previous studies, environmental impacts of flexible and the traditional baseload operation are compared. Life Cycle Assessment (LCA) was performed to detect the environmental impacts of: (i) variety of feedstock co-digestion scenarios by substitution of maize and (ii) loading rate scenarios with a focus on flexible feedstock utilization. Demand-driven biogas production is critical for an overall balanced power supply to the electrical grid. It results in lower amounts of emissions; feedstock loading rate scenarios resulted in 48%, 20%, 11% lower global warming (GWP), acidification (AP) and eutrophication potentials, and a 16% higher cumulative energy demand. Substitution of maize with biogenic-waste regarding to feedstock substitution scenarios could create 10% lower GWP and AP. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Reformation of PURPA contracts: Strategies for success in power marketing

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Scalzo, P.J.

With the passage of the Energy Policy Act of 1992, real competition entered into the world of electric utilities. A slide presentations is given on reformation of Public Utility Regulatory Policies Act (PURPA) Contracts for success in power marketing strategies. Two ways to compete: Be the least cost provider or add value and `sell hard`. The PURPA vision was to increase efficiency in power generation, utilize renewable or waste fuels, and bolster the independent producers. Cogenerators and small power producers qualified. Utility planners predicted, avoided cost, utility loads, and oil and gas prices to increase. However, avoided costs, and oilmore » and gase prices declined. Two scenarios are discussed for contract reformation: Contract buyouts, and renegotiation of contracts. Options for for dealing with existing fuel agreements are presented.« less

City-scale analysis of water-related energy identifies more cost-effective solutions.

PubMed

Lam, Ka Leung; Kenway, Steven J; Lant, Paul A

2017-02-01

Energy and greenhouse gas management in urban water systems typically focus on optimising within the direct system boundary of water utilities that covers the centralised water supply and wastewater treatment systems, despite a greater energy influence by the water end use. This work develops a cost curve of water-related energy management options from a city perspective for a hypothetical Australian city. It is compared with that from the water utility perspective. The curves are based on 18 water-related energy management options that have been implemented or evaluated in Australia. In the studied scenario, the cost-effective energy saving potential from a city perspective (292 GWh/year) is far more significant than that from a utility perspective (65 GWh/year). In some cases, for similar capital cost, if regional water planners invested in end use options instead of utility options, a greater energy saving potential at a greater cost-effectiveness could be achieved in urban water systems. For example, upgrading a wastewater treatment plant for biogas recovery at a capital cost of $27.2 million would save 31 GWh/year with a marginal cost saving of $63/MWh, while solar hot water system rebates at a cost of $28.6 million would save 67 GWh/year with a marginal cost saving of $111/MWh. Options related to hot water use such as water-efficient shower heads, water-efficient clothes washers and solar hot water system rebates are among the most cost-effective city-scale opportunities. This study demonstrates the use of cost curves to compare both utility and end use options in a consistent framework. It also illustrates that focusing solely on managing the energy use within the utility would miss substantial non-utility water-related energy saving opportunities. There is a need to broaden the conventional scope of cost curve analysis to include water-related energy and greenhouse gas at the water end use, and to value their management from a city perspective. This would create opportunities where the same capital investment could achieve far greater energy savings and greenhouse gas emissions abatement. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Stakeholder engagement in scenario development process - bioenergy production and biodiversity conservation in eastern Finland.

PubMed

Haatanen, Anniina; den Herder, Michael; Leskinen, Pekka; Lindner, Marcus; Kurttila, Mikko; Salminen, Olli

2014-03-15

In this study participatory approaches were used to develop alternative forest resource management scenarios with particular respect to the effects on increased use of forest bioenergy and its effect on biodiversity in Eastern Finland. As technical planning tools, we utilized a forest management planning system (MELA) and the Tool for Sustainability Impact Assessment (ToSIA) to visualize the impacts of the scenarios. We organized a stakeholder workshop where group discussions were used as a participatory method to get the stakeholder preferences and insights concerning forest resource use in the year 2030. Feedback from the workshop was then complemented with a questionnaire. Based on the results of the workshop and a questionnaire we developed three alternative forest resource scenarios: (1) bioenergy 2030 - in which energy production is more centralized and efficient; (2) biodiversity 2030 - in which harvesting methods are more nature friendly and protected forests make up 10% of the total forest area; and (3) mixed bioenergy + biodiversity 2030 scenario - in which wood production, recreation and nature protection are assigned to the most suitable areas. The study showed that stakeholder engagement combined with the MELA and ToSIA tools can be a useful approach in scenario development. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Advanced space system concepts and their orbital support needs (1980 - 2000). Volume 4: Detailed data. Part 2: Program plans and common support needs (a study of the commonality of space vehicle applications to future national needs

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Bekey, I.; Mayer, H. L.; Wolfe, M. G.

1976-01-01

The methodology of alternate world future scenarios is utilized for selecting a plausible, though not advocated, set of future scenarios each of which results in a program plan appropriate for the respective environment. Each such program plan gives rise to different building block and technology requirements, which are analyzed for common need between the NASA and the DoD for each of the alternate world scenarios. An essentially invariant set of system, building block, and technology development plans is presented at the conclusion, intended to allow protection of most of the options for system concepts regardless of what the actual future world environment turns out to be. Thus, building block and technology needs are derived which support: (1) each specific world scenario; (2) all the world scenarios identified in this study; or (3) generalized scenarios applicable to almost any future environment. The output included in this volume consists of the building blocks, i.e.: transportation vehicles, orbital support vehicles, and orbital support facilities; the technology required to support the program plans; identification of their features which could support the DoD and NASA in common; and a complete discussion of the planning methodology.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Clark, Corrie E.; Harto, Christopher B.; Schroeder, Jenna N.

This report is the third in a series of reports sponsored by the U.S. Department of Energy Geothermal Technologies Program in which a range of water-related issues surrounding geothermal power production are evaluated. The first report made an initial attempt at quantifying the life cycle fresh water requirements of geothermal power-generating systems and explored operational and environmental concerns related to the geochemical composition of geothermal fluids. The initial analysis of life cycle fresh water consumption of geothermal power-generating systems identified that operational water requirements consumed the vast majority of water across the life cycle. However, it relied upon limited operationalmore » water consumption data and did not account for belowground operational losses for enhanced geothermal systems (EGSs). A second report presented an initial assessment of fresh water demand for future growth in utility-scale geothermal power generation. The current analysis builds upon this work to improve life cycle fresh water consumption estimates and incorporates regional water availability into the resource assessment to improve the identification of areas where future growth in geothermal electricity generation may encounter water challenges. This report is divided into nine chapters. Chapter 1 gives the background of the project and its purpose, which is to assess the water consumption of geothermal technologies and identify areas where water availability may present a challenge to utility-scale geothermal development. Water consumption refers to the water that is withdrawn from a resource such as a river, lake, or nongeothermal aquifer that is not returned to that resource. The geothermal electricity generation technologies evaluated in this study include conventional hydrothermal flash and binary systems, as well as EGSs that rely on engineering a productive reservoir where heat exists, but where water availability or permeability may be limited. Chapter 2 describes the approach and methods for this work and identifies the four power plant scenarios evaluated: a 20-MW EGS binary plant, a 50-MW EGS binary plant, a 10-MW hydrothermal binary plant, and a 50-MW hydrothermal flash plant. The methods focus on (1) the collection of data to improve estimation of EGS stimulation volumes, aboveground operational consumption for all geothermal technologies, and belowground operational consumption for EGS; and (2) the mapping of the geothermal and water resources of the western United States to assist in the identification of potential water challenges to geothermal growth. Chapters 3 and 4 present the water requirements for the power plant life cycle. Chapter 3 presents the results of the current data collection effort, and Chapter 4 presents the normalized volume of fresh water consumed at each life cycle stage per lifetime energy output for the power plant scenarios evaluated. Over the life cycle of a geothermal power plant, from construction through 30 years of operation, the majority of water is consumed by plant operations. For the EGS binary scenarios, where dry cooling was assumed, belowground operational water loss is the greatest contributor depending upon the physical and operational conditions of the reservoir. Total life cycle water consumption requirements for air-cooled EGS binary scenarios vary between 0.22 and 1.85 gal/kWh, depending upon the extent of belowground operational water consumption. The air-cooled hydrothermal binary and flash plants experience far less fresh water consumption over the life cycle, at 0.04 gal/kWh. Fresh water requirements associated with air- cooled binary operations are primarily from aboveground water needs, including dust control, maintenance, and domestic use. Although wet-cooled hydrothermal flash systems require water for cooling, these plants generally rely upon the geofluid, fluid from the geothermal reservoir, which typically has high salinity and total dissolved solids concentration and is much warmer than normal groundwater sources, for their cooling water needs; thus, while there is considerable geofluid loss at 2.7 gal/kWh, fresh water consumption during operations is similar to that of aircooled binary systems. Chapter 5 presents the assessment of water demand for future growth in deployment of utility-scale geothermal power generation. The approach combines the life cycle analysis of geothermal water consumption with a geothermal supply curve according to resource type, levelized cost of electricity (LCOE), and potential growth scenarios. A total of 17 growth scenarios were evaluated. In general, the scenarios that assumed lower costs for EGSs as a result of learning and technological improvements resulted in greater geothermal potential, but also significantly greater water demand due to the higher water consumption by EGSs. It was shown, however, that this effect could be largely mitigated if nonpotable water sources were used for belowground operational water demands. The geographical areas that showed the highest water demand for most growth scenarios were southern and northern California, as well as most of Nevada. In addition to water demand by geothermal power production, Chapter 5 includes data on water availability for geothermal development areas. A qualitative analysis is included that identifies some of the basins where the limited availability of water is most likely to affect the development of geothermal resources. The data indicate that water availability is fairly limited, especially under drought conditions, in most of the areas with significant near- and medium-term geothermal potential. Southern California was found to have the greatest potential for water-related challenges with its combination of high geothermal potential and limited water availability. The results of this work are summarized in Chapter 6. Overall, this work highlights the importance of utilizing dry cooling systems for binary and EGS systems and minimizing fresh water consumption throughout the life cycle of geothermal power development. The large resource base for EGSs represents a major opportunity for the geothermal industry; however, depending upon geology, these systems can require large quantities of makeup water due to belowground reservoir losses. Identifying potential sources of compatible degraded or low-quality water for use for makeup injection for EGS and flash systems represents an important opportunity to reduce the impacts of geothermal development on fresh water resources. The importance of identifying alternative water sources for geothermal systems is heightened by the fact that a large fraction of the geothermal resource is located in areas already experiencing water stress. Chapter 7 is a glossary of the technical terms used in the report, and Chapters 8 and 9 provide references and a bibliography, respectively.« less

Modeling Impacts of Alternative Practices on Net Global Warming Potential and Greenhouse Gas Intensity from Rice–Wheat Annual Rotation in China

PubMed Central

Wang, Jinyang; Zhang, Xiaolin; Liu, Yinglie; Pan, Xiaojian; Liu, Pingli; Chen, Zhaozhi; Huang, Taiqing; Xiong, Zhengqin

2012-01-01

Background Evaluating the net exchange of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions in conjunction with soil carbon sequestration may give a comprehensive insight on the role of agricultural production in global warming. Materials and Methods Measured data of methane (CH4) and nitrous oxide (N2O) were utilized to test the applicability of the Denitrification and Decomposition (DNDC) model to a winter wheat – single rice rotation system in southern China. Six alternative scenarios were simulated against the baseline scenario to evaluate their long-term (45-year) impacts on net global warming potential (GWP) and greenhouse gas intensity (GHGI). Principal Results The simulated cumulative CH4 emissions fell within the statistical deviation ranges of the field data, with the exception of N2O emissions during rice-growing season and both gases from the control treatment. Sensitivity tests showed that both CH4 and N2O emissions were significantly affected by changes in both environmental factors and management practices. Compared with the baseline scenario, the long-term simulation had the following results: (1) high straw return and manure amendment scenarios greatly increased CH4 emissions, while other scenarios had similar CH4 emissions, (2) high inorganic N fertilizer increased N2O emissions while manure amendment and reduced inorganic N fertilizer scenarios decreased N2O emissions, (3) the mean annual soil organic carbon sequestration rates (SOCSR) under manure amendment, high straw return, and no-tillage scenarios averaged 0.20 t C ha−1 yr−1, being greater than other scenarios, and (4) the reduced inorganic N fertilizer scenario produced the least N loss from the system, while all the scenarios produced comparable grain yields. Conclusions In terms of net GWP and GHGI for the comprehensive assessment of climate change and crop production, reduced inorganic N fertilizer scenario followed by no-tillage scenario would be advocated for this specified cropping system. PMID:23029173

Anticipatory Water Management in Phoenix using Advanced Scenario Planning and Analyses: WaterSim 5

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sampson, D. A.; Quay, R.; White, D. D.; Gober, P.; Kirkwood, C.

2013-12-01

Complexity, uncertainty, and variability are inherent properties of linked social and natural processes; sustainable resource management must somehow consider all three. Typically, a decision support tool (using scenario analyses) is used to examine management alternatives under suspected trajectories in driver variables (i.e., climate forcing's, growth or economic projections, etc.). This traditional planning focuses on a small set of envisioned scenarios whose outputs are compared against one-another in order to evaluate their differing impacts on desired metrics. Human cognition typically limits this to three to five scenarios. However, complex and highly uncertain issues may require more, often much more, than five scenarios. In this case advanced scenario analysis provides quantitative or qualitative methods that can reveal patterns and associations among scenario metrics for a large ensemble of scenarios. From this analysis, then, a smaller set of heuristics that describe the complexity and uncertainty revealed provides a basis to guide planning in an anticipatory fashion. Our water policy and management model, termed WaterSim, permits advanced scenario planning and analysis for the Phoenix Metropolitan Area. In this contribution we examine the concepts of advanced scenario analysis on a large scale ensemble of scenarios using our work with WaterSim as a case study. For this case study we created a range of possible water futures by creating scenarios that encompasses differences in water supplies (our surrogates for climate change, drought, and inherent variability in riverine flows), population growth, and per capital water consumption. We used IPCC estimates of plausible, future, alterations in riverine runoff, locally produced and vetted estimates of population growth projections, and empirical trends in per capita water consumption for metropolitan cities. This ensemble consisted of ~ 30, 700 scenarios (~575 k observations). We compared and contrasted two metropolitan communities that exhibit differing growth projections and water portfolios; moderate growth with a diverse portfolio versus high growth for a more restrictive portfolio. Results illustrate that both communities exhibited an expanding envelope of possible, future water outcomes with rational water management trajectories. However, a more diverse portfolio resulted in a broad, time-insensitive decision space for management interventions. The reverse was true for the more restrictive water portfolio with high growth projections.

A Preliminary Performance Assessment for Salt Disposal of High-Level Nuclear Waste - 12173

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Lee, Joon H.; Clayton, Daniel; Jove-Colon, Carlos

2012-07-01

A salt repository is one of the four geologic media currently under study by the U.S. DOE Office of Nuclear Energy to support the development of a long-term strategy for geologic disposal of commercial used nuclear fuel (UNF) and high-level radioactive waste (HLW). The immediate goal of the generic salt repository study is to develop the necessary modeling tools to evaluate and improve the understanding of the repository system response and processes relevant to long-term disposal of UNF and HLW in a salt formation. The current phase of this study considers representative geologic settings and features adopted from previous studiesmore » for salt repository sites. For the reference scenario, the brine flow rates in the repository and underlying interbeds are very low, and transport of radionuclides in the transport pathways is dominated by diffusion and greatly retarded by sorption on the interbed filling materials. I-129 is the dominant annual dose contributor at the hypothetical accessible environment, but the calculated mean annual dose is negligibly small. For the human intrusion (or disturbed) scenario, the mean mass release rate and mean annual dose histories are very different from those for the reference scenario. Actinides including Pu-239, Pu-242 and Np-237 are major annual dose contributors, and the calculated peak mean annual dose is acceptably low. A performance assessment model for a generic salt repository has been developed incorporating, where applicable, representative geologic settings and features adopted from literature data for salt repository sites. The conceptual model and scenario for radionuclide release and transport from a salt repository were developed utilizing literature data. The salt GDS model was developed in a probabilistic analysis framework. The preliminary performance analysis for demonstration of model capability is for an isothermal condition at the ambient temperature for the near field. The capability demonstration emphasizes key attributes of a salt repository that are potentially important to the long-term safe disposal of UNF and HLW. The analysis presents and discusses the results showing repository responses to different radionuclide release scenarios (undisturbed and human intrusion). For the reference (or nominal or undisturbed) scenario, the brine flow rates in the repository and underlying interbeds are very low, and transport of radionuclides in the transport pathways is dominated by diffusion and greatly retarded by sorption on the interbed filling materials. I-129 (non-sorbing and unlimited solubility with a very long half-life) is the dominant annual dose contributor at the hypothetical accessible environment, but the calculated mean annual dose is negligibly small that there is no meaningful consequence for the repository performance. For the human intrusion (or disturbed) scenario analysis, the mean mass release rate and mean annual dose histories are very different from those for the reference scenario analysis. Compared to the reference scenario, the relative annual dose contributions by soluble, non-sorbing fission products, particularly I-129, are much lower than by actinides including Pu-239, Pu-242 and Np-237. The lower relative mean annual dose contributions by the fission product radionuclides are due to their lower total inventory available for release (i.e., up to five affected waste packages), and the higher mean annual doses by the actinides are the outcome of the direct release of the radionuclides into the overlying aquifer having high water flow rates, thereby resulting in an early arrival of higher concentrations of the radionuclides at the biosphere drinking water well prior to their significant decay. The salt GDS model analysis has also identified the following future recommendations and/or knowledge gaps to improve and enhance the confidence of the future repository performance analysis. - Repository thermal loading by UNF and HLW, and the effect on the engineered barrier and near-field performance. - Closure and consolidation of salt rocks by creep deformation under the influence of thermal perturbation, and the effect on the engineered barrier and near-field performance. - Brine migration and radionuclide transport under the influence of thermal perturbation in generic salt repository environment, and the effect on the engineered barrier and near-field performance and far-field performance. - Near-field geochemistry and radionuclide mobility in generic salt repository environment (high ionic strength brines, elevated temperatures and chemically reducing condition). - Degradation of engineer barrier components (waste package, waste canister, waste forms, etc.) in a generic salt repository environment (high ionic strength brines, elevated temperatures and chemically reducing condition). - Waste stream types and inventory estimates, particularly for reprocessing high-level waste. (authors)« less

Using Qualitative Hazard Analysis to Guide Quantitative Safety Analysis

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Shortle, J. F.; Allocco, M.

2005-01-01

Quantitative methods can be beneficial in many types of safety investigations. However, there are many difficulties in using quantitative m ethods. Far example, there may be little relevant data available. This paper proposes a framework for using quantitative hazard analysis to prioritize hazard scenarios most suitable for quantitative mziysis. The framework first categorizes hazard scenarios by severity and likelihood. We then propose another metric "modeling difficulty" that desc ribes the complexity in modeling a given hazard scenario quantitatively. The combined metrics of severity, likelihood, and modeling difficu lty help to prioritize hazard scenarios for which quantitative analys is should be applied. We have applied this methodology to proposed concepts of operations for reduced wake separation for airplane operatio ns at closely spaced parallel runways.

Analyzing Cyber Security Threats on Cyber-Physical Systems Using Model-Based Systems Engineering

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kerzhner, Aleksandr; Pomerantz, Marc; Tan, Kymie; Campuzano, Brian; Dinkel, Kevin; Pecharich, Jeremy; Nguyen, Viet; Steele, Robert; Johnson, Bryan

2015-01-01

The spectre of cyber attacks on aerospace systems can no longer be ignored given that many of the components and vulnerabilities that have been successfully exploited by the adversary on other infrastructures are the same as those deployed and used within the aerospace environment. An important consideration with respect to the mission/safety critical infrastructure supporting space operations is that an appropriate defensive response to an attack invariably involves the need for high precision and accuracy, because an incorrect response can trigger unacceptable losses involving lives and/or significant financial damage. A highly precise defensive response, considering the typical complexity of aerospace environments, requires a detailed and well-founded understanding of the underlying system where the goal of the defensive response is to preserve critical mission objectives in the presence of adversarial activity. In this paper, a structured approach for modeling aerospace systems is described. The approach includes physical elements, network topology, software applications, system functions, and usage scenarios. We leverage Model-Based Systems Engineering methodology by utilizing the Object Management Group's Systems Modeling Language to represent the system being analyzed and also utilize model transformations to change relevant aspects of the model into specialized analyses. A novel visualization approach is utilized to visualize the entire model as a three-dimensional graph, allowing easier interaction with subject matter experts. The model provides a unifying structure for analyzing the impact of a particular attack or a particular type of attack. Two different example analysis types are demonstrated in this paper: a graph-based propagation analysis based on edge labels, and a graph-based propagation analysis based on node labels.

Insights into future air quality: a multipollutant analysis of future scenarios using the MARKAL model

EPA Science Inventory

In this presentation, we will provide an update on the development and evaluation of the Air Quality Futures (AQF) scenarios. These scenarios represent widely different assumptions regarding the evolution of the U.S. energy system over the next 40 years. The four AQF scenarios di...

Scenario analysis and path selection of low-carbon transformation in China based on a modified IPAT model.

PubMed

Chen, Liang; Yang, Zhifeng; Chen, Bin

2013-01-01

This paper presents a forecast and analysis of population, economic development, energy consumption and CO2 emissions variation in China in the short- and long-term steps before 2020 with 2007 as the base year. The widely applied IPAT model, which is the basis for calculations, projections, and scenarios of greenhouse gases (GHGs) reformulated as the Kaya equation, is extended to analyze and predict the relations between human activities and the environment. Four scenarios of CO2 emissions are used including business as usual (BAU), energy efficiency improvement scenario (EEI), low carbon scenario (LC) and enhanced low carbon scenario (ELC). The results show that carbon intensity will be reduced by 40-45% as scheduled and economic growth rate will be 6% in China under LC scenario by 2020. The LC scenario, as the most appropriate and the most feasible scheme for China's low-carbon development in the future, can maximize the harmonious development of economy, society, energy and environmental systems. Assuming China's development follows the LC scenario, the paper further gives four paths of low-carbon transformation in China: technological innovation, industrial structure optimization, energy structure optimization and policy guidance.

Scenario Analysis and Path Selection of Low-Carbon Transformation in China Based on a Modified IPAT Model

PubMed Central

Chen, Liang; Yang, Zhifeng; Chen, Bin

2013-01-01

This paper presents a forecast and analysis of population, economic development, energy consumption and CO2 emissions variation in China in the short- and long-term steps before 2020 with 2007 as the base year. The widely applied IPAT model, which is the basis for calculations, projections, and scenarios of greenhouse gases (GHGs) reformulated as the Kaya equation, is extended to analyze and predict the relations between human activities and the environment. Four scenarios of CO2 emissions are used including business as usual (BAU), energy efficiency improvement scenario (EEI), low carbon scenario (LC) and enhanced low carbon scenario (ELC). The results show that carbon intensity will be reduced by 40–45% as scheduled and economic growth rate will be 6% in China under LC scenario by 2020. The LC scenario, as the most appropriate and the most feasible scheme for China’s low-carbon development in the future, can maximize the harmonious development of economy, society, energy and environmental systems. Assuming China's development follows the LC scenario, the paper further gives four paths of low-carbon transformation in China: technological innovation, industrial structure optimization, energy structure optimization and policy guidance. PMID:24204922

Front-end antenna system design for the ITER low-field-side reflectometer system using GENRAY ray tracing.

PubMed

Wang, G; Doyle, E J; Peebles, W A

2016-11-01

A monostatic antenna array arrangement has been designed for the microwave front-end of the ITER low-field-side reflectometer (LFSR) system. This paper presents details of the antenna coupling coefficient analyses performed using GENRAY, a 3-D ray tracing code, to evaluate the plasma height accommodation capability of such an antenna array design. Utilizing modeled data for the plasma equilibrium and profiles for the ITER baseline and half-field scenarios, a design study was performed for measurement locations varying from the plasma edge to inside the top of the pedestal. A front-end antenna configuration is recommended for the ITER LFSR system based on the results of this coupling analysis.

Study of the feasibility of utilizing solar, wind, and geothermal energy in Hobbs, New Mexico. Final report. Volume 2

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Taylor, B.J.; Huettner, D.A.; Murry, D.

The objective of this study was to provide an economic analysis of the various solar options for Hobbs, New Mexico. In so doing, an assessment of the current state of the art in solar research was obtained. Cost estimates were provided assuming capacity 100 MW. These options were: Central Receiver, Cylindrical Trough, Parabolic Dish Non-Brayton, Parabolic Dish Brayton, Fixed Mirror Distributed Focus, Dispersed Photovoltaic ERDA Goal, and Dispersed Photovoltaic Present Quote. Three scenarios were used to analyze all of the solar options relative to conventional fossil systems and nuclear alternatives. A total of thirty-two different options were considered. Results andmore » conclusions are presented. (MHR)« less

Extreme risk assessment based on normalized historic loss data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Eichner, Jan

2017-04-01

Natural hazard risk assessment and risk management focuses on the expected loss magnitudes of rare and extreme events. Such large-scale loss events typically comprise all aspects of compound events and accumulate losses from multiple sectors (including knock-on effects). Utilizing Munich Re's NatCatSERVICE direct economic loss data, we beriefly recap a novel methodology of peril-specific loss data normalization which improves the stationarity properties of highly non-stationary historic loss data (due to socio-economic growth of assets prone to destructive forces), and perform extreme value analysis (peaks-over-threshold method) to come up with return level estimates of e.g. 100-yr loss event scenarios for various types of perils, globally or per continent, and discuss uncertainty in the results.

Latency as a region contrast: Measuring ERP latency differences with Dynamic Time Warping.

PubMed

Zoumpoulaki, A; Alsufyani, A; Filetti, M; Brammer, M; Bowman, H

2015-12-01

Methods for measuring onset latency contrasts are evaluated against a new method utilizing the dynamic time warping (DTW) algorithm. This new method allows latency to be measured across a region instead of single point. We use computer simulations to compare the methods' power and Type I error rates under different scenarios. We perform per-participant analysis for different signal-to-noise ratios and two sizes of window (broad vs. narrow). In addition, the methods are tested in combination with single-participant and jackknife average waveforms for different effect sizes, at the group level. DTW performs better than the other methods, being less sensitive to noise as well as to placement and width of the window selected. © 2015 Society for Psychophysiological Research.

NAVSIM 2: A computer program for simulating aided-inertial navigation for aircraft

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Bjorkman, William S.

1987-01-01

NAVSIM II, a computer program for analytical simulation of aided-inertial navigation for aircraft, is described. The description is supported by a discussion of the program's application to the design and analysis of aided-inertial navigation systems as well as instructions for utilizing the program and for modifying it to accommodate new models, constraints, algorithms and scenarios. NAVSIM II simulates an airborne inertial navigation system built around a strapped-down inertial measurement unit and aided in its function by GPS, Doppler radar, altimeter, airspeed, and position-fix measurements. The measurements are incorporated into the navigation estimate via a UD-form Kalman filter. The simulation was designed and implemented using structured programming techniques and with particular attention to user-friendly operation.

Indirect health costs in ulcerative colitis and Crohn's disease: a systematic review and meta-analysis.

PubMed

Kawalec, Paweł; Malinowski, Krzysztof Piotr

2015-04-01

The aim of this systematic review was to collect all current data on indirect costs related to inflammatory bowel disease as well as assessing homogeneity and comparability, and conducting a meta-analysis. Costs were collected using databases from Medline, Embase and Centre for Reviews and Dissemination databases, then average annual cost per patient was calculated and expressed in 2013-rate USD using the consumer price index and purchasing power parity (scenario 1) and then adjusted to specific gross domestic product (scenario 2) to make them comparable. The studies were then included in quantitative synthesis using the meta-analysis and bootstrap methods. This systematic review was carried out and reported in accordance with Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses statement. From 18 publications, overall annual indirect costs per patient as a result of the quantitative synthesis among all studies eligible for meta-analysis ranged from US$2425.01-US$9622.15 depending on the scenario and model used for analysis. The cost of presenteeism was assessed in only two studies. Considering heterogeneity among all identified studies random-effect model presented the most accurate results of meta-analysis equal to US$7189.27 and US$9622.15 per patient per year for scenario 1 and scenario 2, respectively. This systematic review revealed the existence of a relatively small number of studies that reported on the great economic burden of the disease upon society. A great variety of methodologies and cost components resulted in a very large discrepancy in indirect costs and made meta-analysis difficult to perform, so two scenarios were considered and meta-analysis conducted in subgroups to make data more comparable.

RMP Guidance for Offsite Consequence Analysis

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

Offsite consequence analysis (OCA) consists of a worst-case release scenario and alternative release scenarios. OCA is required from facilities with chemicals above threshold quantities. RMP*Comp software can be used to perform calculations described here.

Assessing green waste route by using Network Analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hasmantika, I. H.; Maryono, M.

2018-02-01

Green waste, such as waste from park need treat proper. One of the main problems of green waste management is how to design optimum collection. This research aims to determine the optimum green waste collection by determining optimum route among park. The route optimum was assessed by using network analysis method. And the region five of Semarang city’s park within 20 parks in chose as case study. To enhancing recycle of green waste, three scenarios of treatment are proposed. Scenario 1 used one integrated treatment facility as terminal for enhancing recycle of green waste, Scenario 2 used two sites and scenario 3 used three sites. According to the assessment, the length of route of scenario 1 is 36.126 km and the time for collection estimated is 46 minutes. In scenario 2, the length of route is 36.471 km with a travel time is 47 minutes. The length of scenario three is 46.934 km and the time of collection is 60 minutes.

A Cost-Minimization Analysis of Tissue-Engineered Constructs for Corneal Endothelial Transplantation

PubMed Central

Tan, Tien-En; Peh, Gary S. L.; George, Benjamin L.; Cajucom-Uy, Howard Y.; Dong, Di; Finkelstein, Eric A.; Mehta, Jodhbir S.

2014-01-01

Corneal endothelial transplantation or endothelial keratoplasty has become the preferred choice of transplantation for patients with corneal blindness due to endothelial dysfunction. Currently, there is a worldwide shortage of transplantable tissue, and demand is expected to increase further with aging populations. Tissue-engineered alternatives are being developed, and are likely to be available soon. However, the cost of these constructs may impair their widespread use. A cost-minimization analysis comparing tissue-engineered constructs to donor tissue procured from eye banks for endothelial keratoplasty was performed. Both initial investment costs and recurring costs were considered in the analysis to arrive at a final tissue cost per transplant. The clinical outcomes of endothelial keratoplasty with tissue-engineered constructs and with donor tissue procured from eye banks were assumed to be equivalent. One-way and probabilistic sensitivity analyses were performed to simulate various possible scenarios, and to determine the robustness of the results. A tissue engineering strategy was cheaper in both investment cost and recurring cost. Tissue-engineered constructs for endothelial keratoplasty could be produced at a cost of US$880 per transplant. In contrast, utilizing donor tissue procured from eye banks for endothelial keratoplasty required US$3,710 per transplant. Sensitivity analyses performed further support the results of this cost-minimization analysis across a wide range of possible scenarios. The use of tissue-engineered constructs for endothelial keratoplasty could potentially increase the supply of transplantable tissue and bring the costs of corneal endothelial transplantation down, making this intervention accessible to a larger group of patients. Tissue-engineering strategies for corneal epithelial constructs or other tissue types, such as pancreatic islet cells, should also be subject to similar pharmacoeconomic analyses. PMID:24949869

Energy efficiency analysis: biomass-to-wheel efficiency related with biofuels production, fuel distribution, and powertrain systems.

PubMed

Huang, Wei-Dong; Zhang, Y-H Percival

2011-01-01

Energy efficiency analysis for different biomass-utilization scenarios would help make more informed decisions for developing future biomass-based transportation systems. Diverse biofuels produced from biomass include cellulosic ethanol, butanol, fatty acid ethyl esters, methane, hydrogen, methanol, dimethyether, Fischer-Tropsch diesel, and bioelectricity; the respective powertrain systems include internal combustion engine (ICE) vehicles, hybrid electric vehicles based on gasoline or diesel ICEs, hydrogen fuel cell vehicles, sugar fuel cell vehicles (SFCV), and battery electric vehicles (BEV). We conducted a simple, straightforward, and transparent biomass-to-wheel (BTW) analysis including three separate conversion elements--biomass-to-fuel conversion, fuel transport and distribution, and respective powertrain systems. BTW efficiency is a ratio of the kinetic energy of an automobile's wheels to the chemical energy of delivered biomass just before entering biorefineries. Up to 13 scenarios were analyzed and compared to a base line case--corn ethanol/ICE. This analysis suggests that BEV, whose electricity is generated from stationary fuel cells, and SFCV, based on a hydrogen fuel cell vehicle with an on-board sugar-to-hydrogen bioreformer, would have the highest BTW efficiencies, nearly four times that of ethanol-ICE. In the long term, a small fraction of the annual US biomass (e.g., 7.1%, or 700 million tons of biomass) would be sufficient to meet 100% of light-duty passenger vehicle fuel needs (i.e., 150 billion gallons of gasoline/ethanol per year), through up to four-fold enhanced BTW efficiencies by using SFCV or BEV. SFCV would have several advantages over BEV: much higher energy storage densities, faster refilling rates, better safety, and less environmental burdens.

A cost-minimization analysis of tissue-engineered constructs for corneal endothelial transplantation.

PubMed

Tan, Tien-En; Peh, Gary S L; George, Benjamin L; Cajucom-Uy, Howard Y; Dong, Di; Finkelstein, Eric A; Mehta, Jodhbir S

2014-01-01

Corneal endothelial transplantation or endothelial keratoplasty has become the preferred choice of transplantation for patients with corneal blindness due to endothelial dysfunction. Currently, there is a worldwide shortage of transplantable tissue, and demand is expected to increase further with aging populations. Tissue-engineered alternatives are being developed, and are likely to be available soon. However, the cost of these constructs may impair their widespread use. A cost-minimization analysis comparing tissue-engineered constructs to donor tissue procured from eye banks for endothelial keratoplasty was performed. Both initial investment costs and recurring costs were considered in the analysis to arrive at a final tissue cost per transplant. The clinical outcomes of endothelial keratoplasty with tissue-engineered constructs and with donor tissue procured from eye banks were assumed to be equivalent. One-way and probabilistic sensitivity analyses were performed to simulate various possible scenarios, and to determine the robustness of the results. A tissue engineering strategy was cheaper in both investment cost and recurring cost. Tissue-engineered constructs for endothelial keratoplasty could be produced at a cost of US$880 per transplant. In contrast, utilizing donor tissue procured from eye banks for endothelial keratoplasty required US$3,710 per transplant. Sensitivity analyses performed further support the results of this cost-minimization analysis across a wide range of possible scenarios. The use of tissue-engineered constructs for endothelial keratoplasty could potentially increase the supply of transplantable tissue and bring the costs of corneal endothelial transplantation down, making this intervention accessible to a larger group of patients. Tissue-engineering strategies for corneal epithelial constructs or other tissue types, such as pancreatic islet cells, should also be subject to similar pharmacoeconomic analyses.

Energy Efficiency Analysis: Biomass-to-Wheel Efficiency Related with Biofuels Production, Fuel Distribution, and Powertrain Systems

PubMed Central

Huang, Wei-Dong; Zhang, Y-H Percival

2011-01-01

Background Energy efficiency analysis for different biomass-utilization scenarios would help make more informed decisions for developing future biomass-based transportation systems. Diverse biofuels produced from biomass include cellulosic ethanol, butanol, fatty acid ethyl esters, methane, hydrogen, methanol, dimethyether, Fischer-Tropsch diesel, and bioelectricity; the respective powertrain systems include internal combustion engine (ICE) vehicles, hybrid electric vehicles based on gasoline or diesel ICEs, hydrogen fuel cell vehicles, sugar fuel cell vehicles (SFCV), and battery electric vehicles (BEV). Methodology/Principal Findings We conducted a simple, straightforward, and transparent biomass-to-wheel (BTW) analysis including three separate conversion elements -- biomass-to-fuel conversion, fuel transport and distribution, and respective powertrain systems. BTW efficiency is a ratio of the kinetic energy of an automobile's wheels to the chemical energy of delivered biomass just before entering biorefineries. Up to 13 scenarios were analyzed and compared to a base line case – corn ethanol/ICE. This analysis suggests that BEV, whose electricity is generated from stationary fuel cells, and SFCV, based on a hydrogen fuel cell vehicle with an on-board sugar-to-hydrogen bioreformer, would have the highest BTW efficiencies, nearly four times that of ethanol-ICE. Significance In the long term, a small fraction of the annual US biomass (e.g., 7.1%, or 700 million tons of biomass) would be sufficient to meet 100% of light-duty passenger vehicle fuel needs (i.e., 150 billion gallons of gasoline/ethanol per year), through up to four-fold enhanced BTW efficiencies by using SFCV or BEV. SFCV would have several advantages over BEV: much higher energy storage densities, faster refilling rates, better safety, and less environmental burdens. PMID:21765941

Hydrogen Financial Analysis Scenario Tool (H2FAST); NREL (National Renewable Energy Laboratory)

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Melaina, Marc

This presentation describes the Hydrogen Financial Analysis Scenario Tool, H2FAST, and provides an overview of each of the three H2FAST formats: the H2FAST web tool, the H2FAST Excel spreadsheet, and the H2FAST Business Case Scenario (BCS) tool. Examples are presented to illustrate the types of questions that H2FAST can help answer.

The utility score of epilepsy with partial seizure measured by TTO, VAS, and EQ-5D in the general Korean population.

PubMed

Kang, Hee-Jin; Kang, Eunjeong; Jo, Min-Woo; Park, Eun-Ja; Yoon, Seonyoung; Lee, Eui-Kyung

2014-07-01

This study aimed to measure utilities, which are quantitative terms incorporating preferences, for various health states of epilepsy with partial seizure in the general population in South Korea. It also aimed to find socio-demographic characteristics associated with the utility scores. Utility scores using Time Trade-Off (TTO), Visual Analog Scale (VAS), and EuroQol five Dimension (EQ-5D) were obtained from 300 people aged 16 and over by face-to-face interviews. We measured utilities for three hypothetical health states of epilepsy for which scenarios were defined based on the frequency of partial seizure: seizure-free, seizure reduction, and withdrawal. We compared utilities with varying seizure frequency using a repeated-measures ANOVA, and analyzed the association between utilities and socio-demographic characteristics using a generalized estimating equation (GEE). The mean utility scores for withdrawal state, seizure reduction state, and seizure-free state were 0.303, 0.493, and 0.899, respectively, when measured by TTO. VAS yielded the mean utility scores of 0.211, 0.424, and 0.752 for respective health states, and corresponding scores with EQ-5D were 0.261, 0.645, and 0.959. The utility scores for the three health states were statistically different in TTO, VAS, and EQ-5D. The withdrawal state had the lowest utility scores. There were differences in mean utilities for the three health states across the three methods. Utilities by EQ-5D tended to have higher values than those by TTO and VAS. Utilities by VAS had the lowest values. In GEE analysis, the severity of epilepsy and household income were significantly related to utility scores. The withdrawal state of epilepsy had the lowest utility value and the seizure-free state had the highest by all three techniques of utility measurement used. There were significant differences in utilities between one severity level of epilepsy and another. Utility was associated with household income and the severity of disease. Utility scores for distinct epilepsy states obtained in this study could facilitate health economic analyses of epilepsy treatments and thus help decision making in resource allocation. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Scenario and multiple criteria decision analysis for energy and environmental security of military and industrial installations.

PubMed

Karvetski, Christopher W; Lambert, James H; Linkov, Igor

2011-04-01

Military and industrial facilities need secure and reliable power generation. Grid outages can result in cascading infrastructure failures as well as security breaches and should be avoided. Adding redundancy and increasing reliability can require additional environmental, financial, logistical, and other considerations and resources. Uncertain scenarios consisting of emergent environmental conditions, regulatory changes, growth of regional energy demands, and other concerns result in further complications. Decisions on selecting energy alternatives are made on an ad hoc basis. The present work integrates scenario analysis and multiple criteria decision analysis (MCDA) to identify combinations of impactful emergent conditions and to perform a preliminary benefits analysis of energy and environmental security investments for industrial and military installations. Application of a traditional MCDA approach would require significant stakeholder elicitations under multiple uncertain scenarios. The approach proposed in this study develops and iteratively adjusts a scoring function for investment alternatives to find the scenarios with the most significant impacts on installation security. A robust prioritization of investment alternatives can be achieved by integrating stakeholder preferences and focusing modeling and decision-analytical tools on a few key emergent conditions and scenarios. The approach is described and demonstrated for a campus of several dozen interconnected industrial buildings within a major installation. Copyright © 2010 SETAC.

A scenario-planning approach to human resources for health: the case of community pharmacists in Portugal.

PubMed

Gregório, João; Cavaco, Afonso; Velez Lapão, Luís

2014-10-13

Health workforce planning is especially important in a setting of political, social, and economic uncertainty. Portuguese community pharmacists are experiencing such conditions as well as increasing patient empowerment, shortage of primary care physicians, and primary health care reforms. This study aims to design three future scenarios for Portuguese community pharmacists, recognizing the changing environment as an opportunity to develop the role that community pharmacists may play in the Portuguese health system. The community pharmacist scenario design followed a three-stage approach. The first stage comprised thinking of relevant questions to be addressed and definition of the scenarios horizon. The second stage comprised two face-to-face, scenario-building workshops, for which 10 experts from practice and academic settings were invited. Academic and professional experience was the main selection criteria. The first workshop was meant for context analysis and design of draft scenarios, while the second was aimed at scenario analysis and validation. The final scenarios were built merging workshops' information with data collected from scientific literature followed by team consensus. The final stage involved scenario development carried by the authors alone, developing the narratives behind each scenario. Analysis allowed the identification of critical factors expected to have particular influence in 2020 for Portuguese community pharmacists, leading to two critical uncertainties: the "Legislative environment" and "Ability to innovate and develop services". Three final scenarios were built, namely "Pharmacy-Mall", "e-Pharmacist", and "Reorganize or Die". These scenarios provide possible trends for market needs, pharmacist workforce numbers, and expected qualifications to be developed by future professionals. In all scenarios it is clear that the future advance of Portuguese community pharmacists will depend on pharmaceutical services provision beyond medicine dispensing. This innovative professional role will require the acquisition or development of competencies in the fields of management, leadership, marketing, information technologies, teamwork abilities, and behavioural and communication skills. To accomplish a sustainable evolution, legislative changes and adequate financial incentives will be beneficial. The scenario development proves to be valuable as a strategic planning tool, not only for understanding future community pharmacist needs in a complex and uncertain environment, but also for other health care professionals.

Cost-effectiveness of pneumococcal conjugate vaccination in Georgia.

PubMed

Komakhidze, T; Hoestlandt, C; Dolakidze, T; Shakhnazarova, M; Chlikadze, R; Kopaleishvili, N; Goginashvili, K; Kherkheulidze, M; Clark, A D; Blau, J

2015-05-07

Financial support from the Global Alliance for Vaccines and Immunization (GAVI) to introduce the 10-valent pneumococcal conjugate vaccine (PCV10) into the routine childhood immunization schedule in Georgia is ending in 2015. As a result, the Interagency Coordination Committee (ICC) decided to carry out a cost-effectiveness analysis to gather additional evidence to advocate for an appropriate evidence-based decision after GAVI support is over. The study also aimed to strengthen national capacity to conduct cost-effectiveness studies, and to introduce economic evaluations into Georgia's decision-making process. A multidisciplinary team of national experts led by a member of the ICC carried out the analysis that compared two scenarios: introducing PCV10 vs no vaccination. The TRIVAC model was used to evaluate 10 cohorts of children over the period 2014-2023. National data was used to inform demographics, disease burden, vaccine coverage, health service utilization, and costs. Evidence from clinical trials and the scientific literature was used to estimate the impact of the vaccine. A 3+0 schedule and a vaccine price increasing to US$ 3.50 per dose was assumed for the base-case scenario. Alternative univariate and multivariate scenarios were evaluated. Over the 10-year period, PCV10 was estimated to prevent 7170 (8288 undiscounted) outpatient visits due to all-cause acute otitis media, 5325 (6154 undiscounted) admissions due to all-cause pneumonia, 87 (100 undiscounted) admissions due to pneumococcal meningitis, and 508 (588 undiscounted) admissions due to pneumococcal non-pneumonia and non-meningitis (NPNM). In addition, the vaccine was estimated to prevent 41 (48 undiscounted) deaths. This is equivalent to approximately 5 deaths and 700 admissions prevented each year in Georgia. Over the 10-year period, PCV10 would cost the government approximately US$ 4.4 million ($440,000 per year). However, about half of this would be offset by the treatment costs prevented. The discounted cost-effectiveness ratio was estimated to be US$ 1599 per DALY averted with scenarios ranging from US$ 286 to US$ 7787. This study led to better multi-sectoral collaboration and improved national capacity to perform economic evaluations. Routine infant vaccination against Streptococcus pneumoniae would be highly cost-effective in Georgia. The decision to introduce PCV10 was already made some time before the study was initiated but it provided important economic evidence in support of that decision. There are several uncertainties around many of the parameters used, but a multivariate scenario analysis with several conservative assumptions (including no herd effect in older individuals) shows that this recommendation is robust. This study supports the decision to introduce PCV10 in Georgia. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.