Diagnosing delirium in critically ill children: Validity and reliability of the Pediatric Confusion Assessment Method for the Intensive Care Unit.

PubMed

Smith, Heidi A B; Boyd, Jenny; Fuchs, D Catherine; Melvin, Kelly; Berry, Pamela; Shintani, Ayumi; Eden, Svetlana K; Terrell, Michelle K; Boswell, Tonya; Wolfram, Karen; Sopfe, Jenna; Barr, Frederick E; Pandharipande, Pratik P; Ely, E Wesley

2011-01-01

To validate a diagnostic instrument for pediatric delirium in critically ill children, both ventilated and nonventilated, that uses standardized, developmentally appropriate measurements. A prospective observational cohort study investigating the Pediatric Confusion Assessment Method for Intensive Care Unit (pCAM-ICU) patients in the pediatric medical, surgical, and cardiac intensive care unit of a university-based medical center. A total of 68 pediatric critically ill patients, at least 5 years of age, were enrolled from July 1, 2008, to March 30, 2009. None. Criterion validity including sensitivity and specificity and interrater reliability were determined using daily delirium assessments with the pCAM-ICU by two critical care clinicians compared with delirium diagnosis by pediatric psychiatrists using Diagnostic and Statistical Manual, 4th Edition, Text Revision criteria. A total of 146 paired assessments were completed among 68 enrolled patients with a mean age of 12.2 yrs. Compared with the reference standard for diagnosing delirium, the pCAM-ICU demonstrated a sensitivity of 83% (95% confidence interval, 66-93%), a specificity of 99% (95% confidence interval, 95-100%), and a high interrater reliability (κ = 0.96; 95% confidence interval, 0.74-1.0). The pCAM-ICU is a highly valid reliable instrument for the diagnosis of pediatric delirium in critically ill children chronologically and developmentally at least 5 yrs of age. Use of the pCAM-ICU may expedite diagnosis and consultation with neuropsychiatry specialists for treatment of pediatric delirium. In addition, the pCAM-ICU may provide a means for delirium monitoring in future epidemiologic and interventional studies in critically ill children.

Hostility and the risk of peptic ulcer in the GAZEL cohort.

PubMed

Lemogne, Cédric; Schuster, Jean-Pierre; Levenstein, Susan; Melchior, Maria; Nabi, Hermann; Ducimetière, Pierre; Limosin, Frédéric; Goldberg, Marcel; Zins, Marie; Consoli, Silla M

2015-02-01

Evidence for an association between hostility and peptic ulcer mainly relies on cross-sectional studies. Prospective studies are rare and have not used a validated measure of hostility. This prospective study aimed to examine the association between hostility and peptic ulcer in the large-scale French GAZEL cohort. In 1993, 14,674 participants completed the Buss and Durkee Hostility Inventory. Participants were annually followed-up from 1994 to 2011. Diagnosis of peptic ulcer was self-reported. The association between hostility scores and ulcer incidence was measured by hazard ratios (HR) and 95% confidence intervals computed through Cox regression. Among 13,539 participants free of peptic ulcer history at baseline, 816 reported a peptic ulcer during a mean follow-up of 16.8 years. Adjusting for potential confounders, including smoking, occupational grade, and a proxy for nonsteroidal anti-inflammatory drug exposure, ulcer incidence was positively associated with total hostility (HR per SD: 1.23, confidence interval: 1.14-1.31), behavioral hostility (HR per SD: 1.13, confidence interval: 1.05-1.21), cognitive hostility (HR per SD: 1.26, confidence interval: 1.18-1.35), and irritability (HR per SD: 1.20, confidence interval: 1.12-1.29). The risk of peptic ulcer increased from the lowest to the highest quartile for all hostility measures (p for linear trend < .05). Hostility might be associated with an increased risk of peptic ulcer. Should these results be replicated, further studies would be needed to explore the underlying mechanisms.

Field Validation of the Los Angeles Motor Scale as a Tool for Paramedic Assessment of Stroke Severity.

PubMed

Kim, Joon-Tae; Chung, Pil-Wook; Starkman, Sidney; Sanossian, Nerses; Stratton, Samuel J; Eckstein, Marc; Pratt, Frank D; Conwit, Robin; Liebeskind, David S; Sharma, Latisha; Restrepo, Lucas; Tenser, May-Kim; Valdes-Sueiras, Miguel; Gornbein, Jeffrey; Hamilton, Scott; Saver, Jeffrey L

2017-02-01

The Los Angeles Motor Scale (LAMS) is a 3-item, 0- to 10-point motor stroke-deficit scale developed for prehospital use. We assessed the convergent, divergent, and predictive validity of the LAMS when performed by paramedics in the field at multiple sites in a large and diverse geographic region. We analyzed early assessment and outcome data prospectively gathered in the FAST-MAG trial (Field Administration of Stroke Therapy-Magnesium phase 3) among patients with acute cerebrovascular disease (cerebral ischemia and intracranial hemorrhage) within 2 hours of onset, transported by 315 ambulances to 60 receiving hospitals. Among 1632 acute cerebrovascular disease patients (age 70±13 years, male 57.5%), time from onset to prehospital LAMS was median 30 minutes (interquartile range 20-50), onset to early postarrival (EPA) LAMS was 145 minutes (interquartile range 119-180), and onset to EPA National Institutes of Health Stroke Scale was 150 minutes (interquartile range 120-180). Between the prehospital and EPA assessments, LAMS scores were stable in 40.5%, improved in 37.6%, and worsened in 21.9%. In tests of convergent validity, against the EPA National Institutes of Health Stroke Scale, correlations were r=0.49 for the prehospital LAMS and r=0.89 for the EPA LAMS. Prehospital LAMS scores did diverge from the prehospital Glasgow Coma Scale, r=-0.22. Predictive accuracy (adjusted C statistics) for nondisabled 3-month outcome was as follows: prehospital LAMS, 0.76 (95% confidence interval 0.74-0.78); EPA LAMS, 0.85 (95% confidence interval 0.83-0.87); and EPA National Institutes of Health Stroke Scale, 0.87 (95% confidence interval 0.85-0.88). In this multicenter, prospective, prehospital study, the LAMS showed good to excellent convergent, divergent, and predictive validity, further establishing it as a validated instrument to characterize stroke severity in the field. © 2017 American Heart Association, Inc.

The Reliability and Validity of the Self-Reported Drinking Measures in the Army’s Health Risk Appraisal Survey

PubMed Central

Bell, Nicole S.; Williams, Jeffrey O.; Senier, Laura; Strowman, Shelley R.; Amoroso, Paul J.

2007-01-01

Background The reliability and validity of self-reported drinking behaviors from the Army Health Risk Appraisal (HRA) survey are unknown. Methods We compared demographics and health experiences of those who completed the HRA with those who did not (1991–1998). We also evaluated the reliability and validity of eight HRA alcohol-related items, including the CAGE, weekly drinking quantity, and drinking and driving measures. We used Cohen’s κ and Pearson’s r to assess reliability and convergent validity. To assess criterion (predictive) validity, we used proportional hazards and logistical regression models predicting alcohol-related hospitalizations and alcohol-related separations from the Army, respectively. Results A total of 404,966 soldiers completed an HRA. No particular demographic group seems to be over- or underrepresented. Although few respondents skipped alcohol items, those who did tended to be older and of minority race. The alcohol items demonstrate a reasonable degree of reliability, with Cronbach’s α = 0.69 and test-retest reliability associations in the 0.75–0.80 range for most items over 2- to 30-day interims between surveys. The alcohol measures showed good criterion-related validity: those consuming more than 21 drinks per week were at 6 times the risk for subsequent alcohol-related hospitalization versus those who abstained from drinking (hazard ratio, 6.36; 95% confidence interval=5.79, 6.99). Those who said their friends worried about their drinking were almost 5 times more likely to be discharged due to alcoholism (risk ratio, 4.9; 95% confidence interval=4.00, 6.04) and 6 times more likely to experience an alcohol-related hospitalization (hazard ratio, 6.24; 95% confidence interval=5.74, 6.77). Conclusions The Army’s HRA alcohol items seem to elicit reliable and valid responses. Because HRAs contain identifiers, alcohol use can be linked with subsequent health and occupational outcomes, making the HRA a useful epidemiological research tool. Associations between perceived peer opinions of drinking and subsequent problems deserve further exploration. PMID:12766628

Criterion validity study of the cervical range of motion (CROM) device for rotational range of motion on healthy adults.

PubMed

Tousignant, Michel; Smeesters, Cécil; Breton, Anne-Marie; Breton, Emilie; Corriveau, Hélène

2006-04-01

This study compared range of motion (ROM) measurements using a cervical range of motion device (CROM) and an optoelectronic system (OPTOTRAK). To examine the criterion validity of the CROM for the measurement of cervical ROM on healthy adults. Whereas measurements of cervical ROM are recognized as part of the assessment of patients with neck pain, few devices are available in clinical settings. Two papers published previously showed excellent criterion validity for measurements of cervical flexion/extension and lateral flexion using the CROM. Subjects performed neck rotation, flexion/extension, and lateral flexion while sitting on a wooden chair. The ROM values were measured by the CROM as well as the OPTOTRAK. The cervical rotational ROM values using the CROM demonstrated a good to excellent linear relationship with those using the OPTOTRAK: right rotation, r = 0.89 (95% confidence interval, 0.81-0.94), and left rotation, r = 0.94 (95% confidence interval, 0.90-0.97). Similar results were also obtained for flexion/extension and lateral flexion ROM values. The CROM showed excellent criterion validity for measurements of cervical rotation. We propose using ROM values measured by the CROM as outcome measures for patients with neck pain.

Special physical examination tests for superior labrum anterior posterior shoulder tears are clinically limited and invalid: a diagnostic systematic review.

PubMed

Calvert, Eric; Chambers, Gordon Keith; Regan, William; Hawkins, Robert H; Leith, Jordan M

2009-05-01

The diagnosis of a superior labrum anterior posterior (SLAP) lesion through physical examination has been widely reported in the literature. Most of these studies report high sensitivities and specificities, and claim to be accurate, valid, and reliable. The purpose of this study was to critically evaluate these studies to determine if there was sufficient evidence to support the use of the SLAP physical examination tests as valid and reliable diagnostic test procedures. Strict epidemiologic methodology was used to obtain and collate all relevant articles. Sackett's guidelines were applied to all articles. Confidence intervals and likelihood ratios were determined. Fifteen of 29 relevant studies met the criteria for inclusion. Only one article met all of Sackett's critical appraisal criteria. Confidence intervals for both the positive and negative likelihood ratios contained the value 1. The current literature being used as a resource for teaching in medical schools and continuing education lacks the validity necessary to be useful. There are no good physical examination tests that exist for effectively diagnosing a SLAP lesion.

Hypnosis for Smoking Relapse Prevention: A Randomized Trial.

PubMed

Carmody, Timothy P; Duncan, Carol L; Solkowitz, Sharon N; Huggins, Joy; Simon, Joel A

2017-10-01

The purpose of this study was to determine whether hypnosis would be more effective than standard behavioral counseling in helping smokers to remain abstinent. A total of 140 current smokers were enrolled in a randomized controlled smoking cessation trial at an urban Veterans Affairs medical center. Participants (n = 102) who were able to quit for at least 3 days received either a hypnosis or behavioral relapse prevention intervention. Both relapse prevention interventions consisted of two 60 min face-to-face sessions and four 20 min follow-up phone calls (two phone calls per week). At 26 weeks, the validate\\d point-prevalence quit rate was 35% for the hypnosis group and 42% for the behavioral counseling group (relative risk = 0.85; 95% confidence interval: 0.52-1.40). At 52 weeks, the validated quit rate was 29% for the hypnosis group and 28% for the behavioral group (relative risk  = 1.03; 95% confidence interval: 0.56-1.91). It was concluded that hypnosis warrants further investigation as an intervention for facilitating maintenance of quitting.

Online physician review websites poorly correlate to a validated metric of patient satisfaction.

PubMed

Chen, Jennwood; Presson, Angela; Zhang, Chong; Ray, David; Finlayson, Samuel; Glasgow, Robert

2018-07-01

Physician review websites such as Vitals and Healthgrades are becoming an increasingly popular tool for patients to choose providers. We hypothesized that the scores of these surveys poorly represent the true value of patient satisfaction when compared to a validated survey instrument. Answers from Vitals and Healthgrades online surveys were compared to the Press Ganey Medical Practice Survey (PGMPS) for 200 faculty members at a university hospital for FY15. Weighted Pearson's correlation was used to compare Healthgrades and Vitals to PGMPS. While statistically significant, both Vitals and Healthgrades had very low correlations with the PGMPS with weighted coefficients of 0.18 (95% confidence interval: 0.02-0.34, P = 0.025) and 0.27 (95% confidence interval: 0.12-0.42, P < 0.001), respectively. Online physician rating websites such as Vitals and Healthgrades poorly correlate with the PGMPS, a validated measure of patient satisfaction. Patients should be aware of these limitations and, consequently, should have access to the most accurate measure of patient satisfaction. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Taichi exercise for self-rated sleep quality in older people: a systematic review and meta-analysis.

PubMed

Du, Shizheng; Dong, Jianshu; Zhang, Heng; Jin, Shengji; Xu, Guihua; Liu, Zengxia; Chen, Lixia; Yin, Haiyan; Sun, Zhiling

2015-01-01

Self-reported sleep disorders are common in older adults, resulting in serious consequences. Non-pharmacological measures are important complementary interventions, among which Taichi exercise is a popular alternative. Some experiments have been performed; however, the effect of Taichi exercise in improving sleep quality in older people has yet to be validated by systematic review. Using systematic review and meta-analysis, this study aimed to examine the efficacy of Taichi exercise in promoting self-reported sleep quality in older adults. Systematic review and meta-analysis of randomized controlled studies. 4 English databases: Pubmed, Cochrane Library, Web of Science and CINAHL, and 4 Chinese databases: CBMdisc, CNKI, VIP, and Wanfang database were searched through December 2013. Two reviewers independently selected eligible trials, conducted critical appraisal of the methodological quality by using the quality appraisal criteria for randomized controlled studies recommended by Cochrane Handbook. A standardized data form was used to extract information. Meta-analysis was performed. Five randomized controlled studies met inclusion criteria. All suffered from some methodological flaws. The results of this study showed that Taichi has large beneficial effect on sleep quality in older people, as indicated by decreases in the global Pittsburgh Sleep Quality Index score [standardized mean difference=-0.87, 95% confidence intervals (95% confidence interval) (-1.25, -0.49)], as well as its sub-domains of subjective sleep quality [standardized mean difference=-0.83, 95% confidence interval (-1.08, -0.57)], sleep latency [standardized mean difference=-0.75, 95% confidence interval (-1.42, -0.07)], sleep duration [standardized mean difference=-0.55, 95% confidence interval (-0.90, -0.21)], habitual sleep efficiency [standardized mean difference=-0.49, 95% confidence interval (-0.74, -0.23)], sleep disturbance [standardized mean difference=-0.44, 95% confidence interval (-0.69, -0.19)], and daytime dysfunction [standardized mean difference=-0.34, 95% confidence interval (-0.59, -0.09)]. Daytime sleepiness improvement was also observed. Weak evidence shows that Taichi exercise has a beneficial effect in improving self-rated sleep quality for older adults, suggesting that Taichi could be an effective alternative and complementary approach to existing therapies for older people with sleep problems. More rigorous experimental studies are required. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Self-reported confidence in recall as a predictor of validity and repeatability of physical activity questionnaire data.

PubMed

Cust, Anne E; Armstrong, Bruce K; Smith, Ben J; Chau, Josephine; van der Ploeg, Hidde P; Bauman, Adrian

2009-05-01

Self-reported confidence ratings have been used in other research disciplines as a tool to assess data quality, and may be useful in epidemiologic studies. We examined whether self-reported confidence in recall of physical activity was a predictor of the validity and retest reliability of physical activity measures from the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition (EPIC) past-year questionnaire and the International Physical Activity Questionnaire (IPAQ) last-7-day questionnaire.During 2005-2006 in Sydney, Australia, 97 men and 80 women completed both questionnaires at baseline and at 10 months and wore an accelerometer as an objective comparison measure for three 7-day periods during the same timeframe. Participants rated their confidence in recalling physical activity for each question using a 5-point scale and were dichotomized at the median confidence value. Participants in the high-confidence group had higher validity and repeatability coefficients than those in the low-confidence group for most comparisons. The differences were most apparent for validity of IPAQ moderate activity: Spearman correlation rho = 0.34 (95% confidence interval [CI] = 0.08 to 0.55) and 0.01 (-0.17 to 0.20) for high- and low-confidence groups, respectively; and repeatability of EPIC household activity: rho = 0.81 (0.72 to 0.87) and 0.63 (0.48 to 0.74), respectively, and IPAQ vigorous activity: rho = 0.58 (0.43 to 0.70) and 0.29 (0.07 to 0.49), respectively. Women were less likely than men to report high recall confidence of past-year activity (adjusted odds ratio = 0.38; 0.18 to 0.80). Confidence ratings could be useful as indicators of recall accuracy (ie, validity and repeatability) of physical activity measures, and possibly for detecting differential measurement error and identifying questionnaire items that require improvement.

Development and validation of the Myasthenia Gravis Impairment Index.

PubMed

Barnett, Carolina; Bril, Vera; Kapral, Moira; Kulkarni, Abhaya; Davis, Aileen M

2016-08-30

We aimed to develop a measure of myasthenia gravis impairment using a previously developed framework and to evaluate reliability and validity, specifically face, content, and construct validity. The first draft of the Myasthenia Gravis Impairment Index (MGII) included examination items from available measures enriched with newly developed, patient-reported items, modified after patient input. International neuromuscular specialists evaluated face and content validity via an e-mail survey. Test-retest reliability was assessed in stable patients at a 3-week interval and interrater reliability was evaluated in the same day. Construct validity was assessed through correlations between the MGII and other measures and by comparing scores in different patient groups. The first draft was assessed by 18 patients, and 72 specialists answered the survey. The second draft had 7 examination and 22 patient-reported items. Field testing included 200 patients, with 54 patients completing the reliability studies. Test-retest reliability of the total score was good (intraclass correlation coefficient 0.92; 95% confidence interval 0.79-0.94), as was interrater reliability of the examination component (intraclass correlation coefficient 0.81; 95% confidence interval 0.79-0.94). The MGII correlated well with comparison measures, with higher correlations with the MG-activities of daily living (r = 0.91) and MG-specific quality of life 15-item scale (r = 0.78). When assessing different patient groups, the scores followed expected patterns. The MGII was developed using a patient-centered framework of myasthenia-related impairments and incorporating patient input throughout the development process. It is reliable in an outpatient setting and has demonstrated construct validity. Responsiveness studies are under way. © 2016 American Academy of Neurology.

Development and validation of the Myasthenia Gravis Impairment Index

PubMed Central

Bril, Vera; Kapral, Moira; Kulkarni, Abhaya; Davis, Aileen M.

2016-01-01

Objective: We aimed to develop a measure of myasthenia gravis impairment using a previously developed framework and to evaluate reliability and validity, specifically face, content, and construct validity. Methods: The first draft of the Myasthenia Gravis Impairment Index (MGII) included examination items from available measures enriched with newly developed, patient-reported items, modified after patient input. International neuromuscular specialists evaluated face and content validity via an e-mail survey. Test–retest reliability was assessed in stable patients at a 3-week interval and interrater reliability was evaluated in the same day. Construct validity was assessed through correlations between the MGII and other measures and by comparing scores in different patient groups. Results: The first draft was assessed by 18 patients, and 72 specialists answered the survey. The second draft had 7 examination and 22 patient-reported items. Field testing included 200 patients, with 54 patients completing the reliability studies. Test–retest reliability of the total score was good (intraclass correlation coefficient 0.92; 95% confidence interval 0.79–0.94), as was interrater reliability of the examination component (intraclass correlation coefficient 0.81; 95% confidence interval 0.79–0.94). The MGII correlated well with comparison measures, with higher correlations with the MG–activities of daily living (r = 0.91) and MG-specific quality of life 15-item scale (r = 0.78). When assessing different patient groups, the scores followed expected patterns. Conclusions: The MGII was developed using a patient-centered framework of myasthenia-related impairments and incorporating patient input throughout the development process. It is reliable in an outpatient setting and has demonstrated construct validity. Responsiveness studies are under way. PMID:27402891

Out-of-range INR values and outcomes among new warfarin patients with non-valvular atrial fibrillation.

PubMed

Nelson, Winnie W; Wang, Li; Baser, Onur; Damaraju, Chandrasekharrao V; Schein, Jeffrey R

2015-02-01

Although efficacious in stroke prevention in non-valvular atrial fibrillation, many warfarin patients are sub-optimally managed. To evaluate the association of international normalized ratio control and clinical outcomes among new warfarin patients with non-valvular atrial fibrillation. Adult non-valvular atrial fibrillation patients (≥18 years) initiating warfarin treatment were selected from the US Veterans Health Administration dataset between 10/2007 and 9/2012. Valid international normalized ratio values were examined from the warfarin initiation date through the earlier of the first clinical outcome, end of warfarin exposure or death. Each patient contributed multiple in-range and out-of-range time periods. The relative risk ratios of clinical outcomes associated with international normalized ratio control were estimated. 34,346 patients were included for analysis. During the warfarin exposure period, the incidence of events per 100 person-years was highest when patients had international normalized ratio <2:13.66 for acute coronary syndrome; 10.30 for ischemic stroke; 2.93 for transient ischemic attack; 1.81 for systemic embolism; and 4.55 for major bleeding. Poisson regression confirmed that during periods with international normalized ratio <2, patients were at increased risk of developing acute coronary syndrome (relative risk ratio: 7.9; 95 % confidence interval 6.9-9.1), ischemic stroke (relative risk ratio: 7.6; 95 % confidence interval 6.5-8.9), transient ischemic attack (relative risk ratio: 8.2; 95 % confidence interval 6.1-11.2), systemic embolism (relative risk ratio: 6.3; 95 % confidence interval 4.4-8.9) and major bleeding (relative risk ratio: 2.6; 95 % confidence interval 2.2-3.0). During time periods with international normalized ratio >3, patients had significantly increased risk of major bleeding (relative risk ratio: 1.5; 95 % confidence interval 1.2-2.0). In a Veterans Health Administration non-valvular atrial fibrillation population, exposure to out-of-range international normalized ratio values was associated with significantly increased risk of adverse clinical outcomes.

Predictability of Bristol Bay, Alaska, sockeye salmon returns one to four years in the future

USGS Publications Warehouse

Adkison, Milo D.; Peterson, R.M.

2000-01-01

Historically, forecast error for returns of sockeye salmon Oncorhynchus nerka to Bristol Bay, Alaska, has been large. Using cross-validation forecast error as our criterion, we selected forecast models for each of the nine principal Bristol Bay drainages. Competing forecast models included stock-recruitment relationships, environmental variables, prior returns of siblings, or combinations of these predictors. For most stocks, we found prior returns of siblings to be the best single predictor of returns; however, forecast accuracy was low even when multiple predictors were considered. For a typical drainage, an 80% confidence interval ranged from one half to double the point forecast. These confidence intervals appeared to be appropriately wide.

Life-Space Assessment questionnaire: Novel measurement properties for Brazilian community-dwelling older adults.

PubMed

Simões, Maria do Socorro Mp; Garcia, Isabel Ff; Costa, Lucíola da Cm; Lunardi, Adriana C

2018-05-01

The Life-Space Assessment (LSA) assesses mobility from the spaces that older adults go, and how often and how independent they move. Despite its increased use, LSA measurement properties remain unclear. The aim of the present study was to analyze the content validity, reliability, construct validity and interpretability of the LSA for Brazilian community-dwelling older adults. In this clinimetric study we analyzed the measurement properties (content validity, reliability, construct validity and interpretability) of the LSA administered to 80 Brazilian community-dwelling older adults. Reliability was analyzed by Cronbach's alpha (internal consistency), intraclass correlation coefficients and 95% confidence interval (reproducibility), and standard error of measurement (measurement error). Construct validity was analyzed by Pearson's correlations between the LSA and accelerometry (time in inactivity and moderate-to-vigorous activities), and interpretability was analyzed by determination of the minimal detectable change, and floor and ceiling effects. The LSA met the criteria for content validity. The Cronbach's alpha was 0.92, intraclass correlation coefficient was 0.97 (95% confidence interval 0.95-0.98) and standard error of measurement was 4.12. The LSA showed convergence with accelerometry (negative correlation with time in inactivity and positive correlation with time in moderate to vigorous activities), the minimal detectable change was 0.36 and we observed no floor or ceiling effects. The LSA showed adequate reliability, validity and interpretability for life-space mobility assessment of Brazilian community-dwelling older adults. Geriatr Gerontol Int 2018; 18: 783-789. © 2018 Japan Geriatrics Society.

Cross-cultural adaptation and measurement properties of the Brazilian Portuguese Version of the Victorian Institute of Sport Assessment-Patella (VISA-P) scale.

PubMed

Wageck, Bruna Borges; de Noronha, Marcos; Lopes, Alexandre Dias; da Cunha, Ronaldo Alves; Takahashi, Ricardo Hisayoshi; Costa, Leonardo Oliveira Pena

2013-03-01

Clinical measurement. To translate, adapt, and test the measurement properties of the Brazilian Portuguese version of the Victorian Institute of Sport Assessment-Patella (VISA-P) questionnaire. It is important to objectively measure symptoms and functional limitations related to patellar tendinopathy using outcome measures that have been validated in the language of the target population. Cross-cultural adaptations are also useful to enhance the understanding of the measurement properties of an assessment tool, regardless of the target language. The VISA-P questionnaire was translated into Brazilian Portuguese, culturally adapted, and titled VISA-P Brazil. It was then administered on 2 occasions with a 24- to 48-hour interval between them, and a third time after a month of physical therapy treatment. The following measurement properties were analyzed: internal consistency, test-retest reliability, agreement, construct validity, floor and ceiling effects, and responsiveness. The VISA-P Brazil had high internal consistency (Cronbach α = .76; if item deleted, Cronbach α = .69-.78), excellent reliability and agreement (intraclass correlation coefficient = 0.91; 95% confidence interval: 0.85, 0.95; standard error of measurement, 5.2 points; minimal detectable change at the 90% confidence level, 12.2 points), and good construct validity (Pearson r = 0.60 compared to Lysholm). No ceiling and floor effects were detected for the VISA-P Brazil, and the responsiveness, based on 32 patients receiving physical therapy intervention for 1 month, demonstrated a large effect size of 0.97 (95% confidence interval: 0.68, 1.25). The VISA-P Brazil is a reproducible and responsive tool and can be used in clinical practice and research to assess the severity of pain and disability of patients with patellar tendinopathy.

Risk of Hypertension among First-Time Symptomatic Kidney Stone Formers

PubMed Central

Kittanamongkolchai, Wonngarm; Mara, Kristin C.; Mehta, Ramila A.; Vaughan, Lisa E.; Denic, Aleksandar; Knoedler, John J.; Enders, Felicity T.; Lieske, John C.

2017-01-01

Background and objectives Prior work has suggested a higher risk of hypertension in kidney stone formers but lacked disease validation and adjustment for potential confounders. Certain types of stone formers may also be at higher risk of hypertension. Design, setting, participants, & measurements In our study, incident symptomatic stone formers in Olmsted County from 2000 to 2011 were manually validated by chart review and age and sex matched to Olmsted County controls. We followed up patients through November 20, 2015. Hypertension was also validated by manual chart review, and the risk of hypertension in stone formers compared with controls was assessed both univariately and after adjusting for comorbidities. The risk of hypertension among different subtypes of stone formers was also evaluated. Results Among 3023 coded stone formers from 2000 to 2011, a total of 1515 were validated and matched to 1515 controls (mean age was 45 years old, and 56% were men). After excluding those with baseline hypertension (20% of stone formers and 18% of controls), 154 stone formers and 110 controls developed hypertension. Median follow-up time was 7.8 years in stone formers and 9.6 years in controls. Stone formers were found to have a higher risk of hypertension compared with controls (hazard ratio, 1.50; 95% confidence interval, 1.18 to 1.92), even after adjusting for age, sex, body mass index, serum creatinine, CKD, diabetes, gout, coronary artery disease, dyslipidemia, tobacco use, and alcohol abuse (hazard ratio, 1.58; 95% confidence interval, 1.12 to 2.21). Results were similar after excluding patients who were ever on a thiazide diuretic (hazard ratio, 1.65; 95% confidence interval, 1.16 to 2.38). Stone composition, radiographic stone burden, number of subsequent stone events, and stone removal surgeries were not associated with hypertension (P>0.05 for all). Conclusions The risk of hypertension was higher after the first symptomatic kidney stone event. However, kidney stone severity, type, and treatment did not associate with hypertension. PMID:28148559

Validity and reliability of the de Morton Mobility Index in the subacute hospital setting in a geriatric evaluation and management population.

PubMed

de Morton, Natalie A; Lane, Kylie

2010-11-01

To investigate the clinimetric properties of the de Morton Mobility Index (DEMMI) in a Geriatric Evaluation and Management (GEM) population. A longitudinal validation study (n = 100) and inter-rater reliability study (n = 29) in a GEM population. Consecutive patients admitted to a GEM rehabilitation ward were eligible for inclusion. At hospital admission and discharge, a physical therapist assessed patients with physical performance instruments that included the 6-metre walk test, step test, Clinical Test of Sensory Organization and Balance, Timed Up and Go test, 6-minute walk test and the DEMMI. Consecutively eligible patients were included in an inter-rater reliability study between physical therapists. DEMMI admission scores were normally distributed (mean 30.2, standard deviation 16.7) and other activity limitation instruments had either a floor or a ceiling effect. Evidence of convergent, discriminant and known groups validity for the DEMMI were obtained. The minimal detectable change with 90% confidence was 10.5 (95% confidence interval 6.1-17.9) points and the minimally clinically important difference was 8.4 points on the 100-point interval DEMMI scale. The DEMMI provides clinicians with an accurate and valid method of measuring mobility for geriatric patients in the subacute hospital setting.

Correcting for bias in the selection and validation of informative diagnostic tests.

PubMed

Robertson, David S; Prevost, A Toby; Bowden, Jack

2015-04-15

When developing a new diagnostic test for a disease, there are often multiple candidate classifiers to choose from, and it is unclear if any will offer an improvement in performance compared with current technology. A two-stage design can be used to select a promising classifier (if one exists) in stage one for definitive validation in stage two. However, estimating the true properties of the chosen classifier is complicated by the first stage selection rules. In particular, the usual maximum likelihood estimator (MLE) that combines data from both stages will be biased high. Consequently, confidence intervals and p-values flowing from the MLE will also be incorrect. Building on the results of Pepe et al. (SIM 28:762-779), we derive the most efficient conditionally unbiased estimator and exact confidence intervals for a classifier's sensitivity in a two-stage design with arbitrary selection rules; the condition being that the trial proceeds to the validation stage. We apply our estimation strategy to data from a recent family history screening tool validation study by Walter et al. (BJGP 63:393-400) and are able to identify and successfully adjust for bias in the tool's estimated sensitivity to detect those at higher risk of breast cancer. © 2015 The Authors. Statistics in Medicine published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Reliability and validity of the de Morton Mobility Index in individuals with sub-acute stroke.

PubMed

Braun, Tobias; Marks, Detlef; Thiel, Christian; Grüneberg, Christian

2018-02-04

To establish the validity and reliability of the de Morton Mobility Index (DEMMI) in patients with sub-acute stroke. This cross-sectional study was performed in a neurological rehabilitation hospital. We assessed unidimensionality, construct validity, internal consistency reliability, inter-rater reliability, minimal detectable change and possible floor and ceiling effects of the DEMMI in adult patients with sub-acute stroke. The study included a total sample of 121 patients with sub-acute stroke. We analysed validity (n = 109) and reliability (n = 51) in two sub-samples. Rasch analysis indicated unidimensionality with an overall fit to the model (chi-square = 12.37, p = 0.577). All hypotheses on construct validity were confirmed. Internal consistency reliability (Cronbach's alpha = 0.94) and inter-rater reliability (intraclass correlation coefficient = 0.95; 95% confidence interval: 0.92-0.97) were excellent. The minimal detectable change with 90% confidence was 13 points. No floor or ceiling effects were evident. These results indicate unidimensionality, sufficient internal consistency reliability, inter-rater reliability, and construct validity of the DEMMI in patients with a sub-acute stroke. Advantages of the DEMMI in clinical application are the short administration time, no need for special equipment and interval level data. The de Morton Mobility Index, therefore, may be a useful performance-based bedside test to measure mobility in individuals with a sub-acute stroke across the whole mobility spectrum. Implications for Rehabilitation The de Morton Mobility Index (DEMMI) is an unidimensional measurement instrument of mobility in individuals with sub-acute stroke. The DEMMI has excellent internal consistency and inter-rater reliability, and sufficient construct validity. The minimal detectable change of the DEMMI with 90% confidence in stroke rehabilitation is 13 points. The lack of any floor or ceiling effects on hospital admission indicates applicability across the whole mobility spectrum of patients with sub-acute stroke.

Program for Weibull Analysis of Fatigue Data

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Krantz, Timothy L.

2005-01-01

A Fortran computer program has been written for performing statistical analyses of fatigue-test data that are assumed to be adequately represented by a two-parameter Weibull distribution. This program calculates the following: (1) Maximum-likelihood estimates of the Weibull distribution; (2) Data for contour plots of relative likelihood for two parameters; (3) Data for contour plots of joint confidence regions; (4) Data for the profile likelihood of the Weibull-distribution parameters; (5) Data for the profile likelihood of any percentile of the distribution; and (6) Likelihood-based confidence intervals for parameters and/or percentiles of the distribution. The program can account for tests that are suspended without failure (the statistical term for such suspension of tests is "censoring"). The analytical approach followed in this program for the software is valid for type-I censoring, which is the removal of unfailed units at pre-specified times. Confidence regions and intervals are calculated by use of the likelihood-ratio method.

Validity and applicability of a new recording method for hypertension.

PubMed

Mas-Heredia, Minerva; Molés-Moliner, Eloisa; González-de Paz, Luis; Kostov, Belchin; Ortiz-Molina, Jacinto; Mauri-Vázquez, Vanesa; Menacho-Pascual, Ignacio; Cararach-Salami, Daniel; Sierra-Benito, Cristina; Sisó-Almirall, Antoni

2014-09-01

Blood pressure measurement methods and conditions are determinants of hypertension diagnosis. A recent British guideline recommends systematic 24-h ambulatory blood pressure monitoring. However, these devices are not available at all health centers and they can only be used by 1 patient per day. The aim of this study was to test a new blood pressure recording method to see if it gave the same diagnostic results as 24-h blood pressure monitoring. One-hour blood pressure monitoring under routine clinical practice conditions was compared with standard method of day time recording by analyzing the coefficient of correlation and Bland-Altman plots. The Kappa index was used to calculate degree of agreement. Method sensitivity and specificity were also analyzed. Of the 102 participants, 89 (87.3%) obtained the same diagnosis regardless of method, with high between-method agreement (κ= 0.81; 95% confidence interval, 0.71-0.91). We observed robust correlations between diastolic (r=0.85) and systolic blood pressure (r=0.76) readings. Sensitivity and specificity for the new method for diagnosing white coat hypertension were 85.2% (95% confidence interval 67.5%-94.1%) and 92% (95% confidence interval, 83.6%-96.3%), respectively. One-hour blood pressure monitoring is a valid and reliable method for diagnosing hypertension and for classifying hypertension subpopulations, especially in white coat hypertension and refractory hypertension. This also leads to a more productive use of monitoring instruments. Copyright © 2013 Sociedad Española de Cardiología. Published by Elsevier Espana. All rights reserved.

The Nutrition Literacy Assessment Instrument is a Valid and Reliable Measure of Nutrition Literacy in Adults with Chronic Disease.

PubMed

Gibbs, Heather D; Ellerbeck, Edward F; Gajewski, Byron; Zhang, Chuanwu; Sullivan, Debra K

2018-03-01

To test the reliability and validity of the Nutrition Literacy Assessment Instrument (NLit) in adult primary care and identify the relationship between nutrition literacy and diet quality. This instrument validation study included a cross-sectional sample participating in up to 2 visits 1 month apart. A total of 429 adults with nutrition-related chronic disease were recruited from clinics and a patient registry affiliated with a Midwestern university medical center. Nutrition literacy was measured by the NLit, which was composed of 6 subscales: nutrition and health, energy sources in food, food label and numeracy, household food measurement, food groups, and consumer skills. Diet quality was measured by Healthy Eating Index-2010 with nutrient data from Diet History Questionnaire II surveys. The researchers measured factor validity and reliability by using binary confirmatory factor analysis; test-retest reliability was measured by Pearson r and the intraclass correlation coefficient, and relationships between nutrition literacy and diet quality were analyzed by linear regression. The NLit demonstrated substantial factor validity and reliability (0.97; confidence interval, 0.96-0.98) and test-retest reliability (0.88; confidence interval, 0.85-0.90). Nutrition literacy was the most significant predictor of diet quality (β = .17; multivariate coefficient = 0.10; P < .001). The NLit is a valid and reliable tool for measuring nutrition literacy in adult primary care patients. Copyright © 2017 Society for Nutrition Education and Behavior. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Clinical impact and predictors of complete ST segment resolution after primary percutaneous coronary intervention: A subanalysis of the ATLANTIC Trial.

PubMed

Fabris, Enrico; van 't Hof, Arnoud; Hamm, Christian W; Lapostolle, Frédéric; Lassen, Jens F; Goodman, Shaun G; Ten Berg, Jurriën M; Bolognese, Leonardo; Cequier, Angel; Chettibi, Mohamed; Hammett, Christopher J; Huber, Kurt; Janzon, Magnus; Merkely, Béla; Storey, Robert F; Zeymer, Uwe; Cantor, Warren J; Tsatsaris, Anne; Kerneis, Mathieu; Diallo, Abdourahmane; Vicaut, Eric; Montalescot, Gilles

2017-08-01

In the ATLANTIC (Administration of Ticagrelor in the catheterization laboratory or in the Ambulance for New ST elevation myocardial Infarction to open the Coronary artery) trial the early use of aspirin, anticoagulation, and ticagrelor coupled with very short medical contact-to-balloon times represent good indicators of optimal treatment of ST-elevation myocardial infarction and an ideal setting to explore which factors may influence coronary reperfusion beyond a well-established pre-hospital system. This study sought to evaluate predictors of complete ST-segment resolution after percutaneous coronary intervention in ST-elevation myocardial infarction patients enrolled in the ATLANTIC trial. ST-segment analysis was performed on electrocardiograms recorded at the time of inclusion (pre-hospital electrocardiogram), and one hour after percutaneous coronary intervention (post-percutaneous coronary intervention electrocardiogram) by an independent core laboratory. Complete ST-segment resolution was defined as ≥70% ST-segment resolution. Complete ST-segment resolution occurred post-percutaneous coronary intervention in 54.9% ( n=800/1456) of patients and predicted lower 30-day composite major adverse cardiovascular and cerebrovascular events (odds ratio 0.35, 95% confidence interval 0.19-0.65; p<0.01), definite stent thrombosis (odds ratio 0.18, 95% confidence interval 0.02-0.88; p=0.03), and total mortality (odds ratio 0.43, 95% confidence interval 0.19-0.97; p=0.04). In multivariate analysis, independent negative predictors of complete ST-segment resolution were the time from symptoms to pre-hospital electrocardiogram (odds ratio 0.91, 95% confidence interval 0.85-0.98; p<0.01) and diabetes mellitus (odds ratio 0.6, 95% confidence interval 0.44-0.83; p<0.01); pre-hospital ticagrelor treatment showed a favorable trend for complete ST-segment resolution (odds ratio 1.22, 95% confidence interval 0.99-1.51; p=0.06). This study confirmed that post-percutaneous coronary intervention complete ST-segment resolution is a valid surrogate marker for cardiovascular clinical outcomes. In the current era of ST-elevation myocardial infarction reperfusion, patients' delay and diabetes mellitus are independent predictors of poor reperfusion and need specific attention in the future.

Discharge Disposition After Stroke in Patients With Liver Disease.

PubMed

Parikh, Neal S; Merkler, Alexander E; Schneider, Yecheskel; Navi, Babak B; Kamel, Hooman

2017-02-01

Liver disease is associated with both hemorrhagic and thrombotic processes, including an elevated risk of intracranial hemorrhage. We sought to assess the relationship between liver disease and outcomes after stroke, as measured by discharge disposition. Using administrative claims data, we identified a cohort of patients hospitalized with stroke in California, Florida, and New York from 2005 to 2013. The predictor variable was liver disease. All diagnoses were defined using validated diagnosis codes. Ordinal logistic regression was used to analyze the association between liver disease and worsening discharge disposition: home, nursing/rehabilitation facility, or death. Secondarily, multiple logistic regression was used to analyze the association between liver disease and in-hospital mortality. Models were adjusted for demographics, vascular risk factors, and comorbidities. We identified 121 428 patients with intracerebral hemorrhage and 703 918 with ischemic stroke. Liver disease was documented in 13 584 patients (1.7%). Liver disease was associated with worse discharge disposition after both intracerebral hemorrhage (global odds ratio, 1.28; 95% confidence interval, 1.19-1.38) and ischemic stroke (odds ratio, 1.23; 95% confidence interval, 1.17-1.29). Similarly, liver disease was associated with in-hospital death after both intracerebral hemorrhage (odds ratio, 1.33; 95% confidence interval, 1.23-1.44) and ischemic stroke (odds ratio, 1.60; 95% confidence interval, 1.51-1.71). Liver disease was associated with worse hospital discharge disposition and in-hospital mortality after stroke, suggesting worse functional outcomes. © 2016 American Heart Association, Inc.

Assessment of the Thematic Accuracy of Land Cover Maps

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Höhle, J.

2015-08-01

Several land cover maps are generated from aerial imagery and assessed by different approaches. The test site is an urban area in Europe for which six classes (`building', `hedge and bush', `grass', `road and parking lot', `tree', `wall and car port') had to be derived. Two classification methods were applied (`Decision Tree' and `Support Vector Machine') using only two attributes (height above ground and normalized difference vegetation index) which both are derived from the images. The assessment of the thematic accuracy applied a stratified design and was based on accuracy measures such as user's and producer's accuracy, and kappa coefficient. In addition, confidence intervals were computed for several accuracy measures. The achieved accuracies and confidence intervals are thoroughly analysed and recommendations are derived from the gained experiences. Reliable reference values are obtained using stereovision, false-colour image pairs, and positioning to the checkpoints with 3D coordinates. The influence of the training areas on the results is studied. Cross validation has been tested with a few reference points in order to derive approximate accuracy measures. The two classification methods perform equally for five classes. Trees are classified with a much better accuracy and a smaller confidence interval by means of the decision tree method. Buildings are classified by both methods with an accuracy of 99% (95% CI: 95%-100%) using independent 3D checkpoints. The average width of the confidence interval of six classes was 14% of the user's accuracy.

A treatment schedule of conventional physical therapy provided to enhance upper limb sensorimotor recovery after stroke: expert criterion validity and intra-rater reliability.

PubMed

Donaldson, Catherine; Tallis, Raymond C; Pomeroy, Valerie M

2009-06-01

Inadequate description of treatment hampers progress in stroke rehabilitation. To develop a valid, reliable, standardised treatment schedule of conventional physical therapy provided for the paretic upper limb after stroke. Eleven neurophysiotherapists participated in the established methodology: semi-structured interviews, focus groups and piloting a draft treatment schedule in clinical practice. Different physiotherapists (n=13) used the treatment schedule to record treatment given to stroke patients with mild, moderate and severe upper limb paresis. Rating of adequacy of the treatment schedule was made using a visual analogue scale (0 to 100mm). Mean (95% confidence interval) visual analogue scores were calculated (expert criterion validity). For intra-rater reliability, each physiotherapist observed a video tape of their treatment and immediately completed a treatment schedule recording form on two separate occasions, 4 to 6 weeks apart. The Kappa statistic was calculated for intra-rater reliability. The treatment schedule consists of a one-page A4 recording form and a user booklet, detailing 50 treatment activities. Expert criterion validity was 79 (95% confidence interval 74 to 84). Intra-rater Kappa was 0.81 (P<0.001). This treatment schedule can be used to document conventional physical therapy in subsequent clinical trials in the geographical area of its development. Further work is needed to investigate generalisability beyond this geographical area.

Sampling Theory and Confidence Intervals for Effect Sizes: Using ESCI To Illustrate "Bouncing"; Confidence Intervals.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Du, Yunfei

This paper discusses the impact of sampling error on the construction of confidence intervals around effect sizes. Sampling error affects the location and precision of confidence intervals. Meta-analytic resampling demonstrates that confidence intervals can haphazardly bounce around the true population parameter. Special software with graphical…

On Some Confidence Intervals for Estimating the Mean of a Skewed Population

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Shi, W.; Kibria, B. M. Golam

2007-01-01

A number of methods are available in the literature to measure confidence intervals. Here, confidence intervals for estimating the population mean of a skewed distribution are considered. This note proposes two alternative confidence intervals, namely, Median t and Mad t, which are simple adjustments to the Student's t confidence interval. In…

Validity of the Elite HRV Smartphone Application for Examining Heart Rate Variability in a Field-Based Setting.

PubMed

Perrotta, Andrew S; Jeklin, Andrew T; Hives, Ben A; Meanwell, Leah E; Warburton, Darren E R

2017-08-01

Perrotta, AS, Jeklin, AT, Hives, BA, Meanwell, LE, and Warburton, DER. Validity of the elite HRV smartphone application for examining heart rate variability in a field-based setting. J Strength Cond Res 31(8): 2296-2302, 2017-The introduction of smartphone applications has allowed athletes and practitioners to record and store R-R intervals on smartphones for immediate heart rate variability (HRV) analysis. This user-friendly option should be validated in the effort to provide practitioners confidence when monitoring their athletes before implementing such equipment. The objective of this investigation was to examine the relationship and validity between a vagal-related HRV index, rMSSD, when derived from a smartphone application accessible with most operating systems against a frequently used computer software program, Kubios HRV 2.2. R-R intervals were recorded immediately upon awakening over 14 consecutive days using the Elite HRV smartphone application. R-R recordings were then exported into Kubios HRV 2.2 for analysis. The relationship and levels of agreement between rMSSDln derived from Elite HRV and Kubios HRV 2.2 was examined using a Pearson product-moment correlation and a Bland-Altman Plot. An extremely large relationship was identified (r = 0.92; p < 0.0001; confidence interval [CI] 95% = 0.90-0.93). A total of 6.4% of the residuals fell outside the 1.96 ± SD (CI 95% = -12.0 to 7.0%) limits of agreement. A negative bias was observed (mean: -2.7%; CI 95% = -3.10 to -2.30%), whose CI 95% failed to fall within the line of equality. Our observations demonstrated differences between the two sources of HRV analysis. However, further research is warranted, as this smartphone HRV application may offer a reliable platform when assessing parasympathetic modulation.

A mathematical framework to quantify the masking effect associated with the confidence intervals of measures of disproportionality

PubMed Central

Maignen, François; Hauben, Manfred; Dogné, Jean-Michel

2017-01-01

Background: The lower bound of the 95% confidence interval of measures of disproportionality (Lower95CI) is widely used in signal detection. Masking is a statistical issue by which true signals of disproportionate reporting are hidden by the presence of other medicines. The primary objective of our study is to develop and validate a mathematical framework for assessing the masking effect of Lower95CI. Methods: We have developed our new algorithm based on the masking ratio (MR) developed for the measures of disproportionality. A MR for the Lower95CI (MRCI) is proposed. A simulation study to validate this algorithm was also conducted. Results: We have established the existence of a very close mathematical relation between MR and MRCI. For a given drug–event pair, the same product will be responsible for the highest masking effect with the measure of disproportionality and its Lower95CI. The extent of masking is likely to be very similar across the two methods. An important proportion of identical drug–event associations affected by the presence of an important masking effect is revealed by the unmasking exercise, whether the proportional reporting ratio (PRR) or its confidence interval are used. Conclusion: The detection of the masking effect of Lower95CI can be automated. The real benefits of this unmasking in terms of new true-positive signals (rate of true-positive/false-positive) or time gained by the revealing of signals using this method have not been fully assessed. These benefits should be demonstrated in the context of prospective studies. PMID:28845231

Development and Validation of a Mobile Device-based External Ventricular Drain Simulator.

PubMed

Morone, Peter J; Bekelis, Kimon; Root, Brandon K; Singer, Robert J

2017-10-01

Multiple external ventricular drain (EVD) simulators have been created, yet their cost, bulky size, and nonreusable components limit their accessibility to residency programs. To create and validate an animated EVD simulator that is accessible on a mobile device. We developed a mobile-based EVD simulator that is compatible with iOS (Apple Inc., Cupertino, California) and Android-based devices (Google, Mountain View, California) and can be downloaded from the Apple App and Google Play Store. Our simulator consists of a learn mode, which teaches users the procedure, and a test mode, which assesses users' procedural knowledge. Twenty-eight participants, who were divided into expert and novice categories, completed the simulator in test mode and answered a postmodule survey. This was graded using a 5-point Likert scale, with 5 representing the highest score. Using the survey results, we assessed the module's face and content validity, whereas construct validity was evaluated by comparing the expert and novice test scores. Participants rated individual survey questions pertaining to face and content validity a median score of 4 out of 5. When comparing test scores, generated by the participants completing the test mode, the experts scored higher than the novices (mean, 71.5; 95% confidence interval, 69.2 to 73.8 vs mean, 48; 95% confidence interval, 44.2 to 51.6; P < .001). We created a mobile-based EVD simulator that is inexpensive, reusable, and accessible. Our results demonstrate that this simulator is face, content, and construct valid. Copyright © 2017 by the Congress of Neurological Surgeons

Stapled versus handsewn methods for colorectal anastomosis surgery.

PubMed

Lustosa, S A; Matos, D; Atallah, A N; Castro, A A

2001-01-01

Randomized controlled trials comparing stapled with handsewn colorectal anastomosis have not shown either technique to be superior, perhaps because individual studies lacked statistical power. A systematic review, with pooled analysis of results, might provide a more definitive answer. To compare the safety and effectiveness of stapled and handsewn colorectal anastomosis. The following primary hypothesis was tested: the stapled technique is more effective because it decreases the level of complications. The RCT register of the Cochrane Review Group was searched for any trial or reference to a relevant trial (published, in-press, or in progress). All publications were sought through computerised searches of EMBASE, LILACS, MEDLINE, the Cochrane Controlled Clinical Trials Database, and through letters to industrial companies and authors. There were no limits upon language, date, or other criteria. All randomized clinical trials (RCTs) in which stapled and handsewn colorectal anastomosis were compared. Adult patients submitted electively to colorectal anastomosis. Endoluminal circular stapler and handsewn colorectal anastomosis. a) Mortality b) Overall Anastomotic Dehiscence c) Clinical Anastomotic Dehiscence d) Radiological Anastomotic Dehiscence e) Stricture f) Anastomotic Haemorrhage g) Reoperation h) Wound Infection i) Anastomosis Duration j) Hospital Stay. Data were independently extracted by the two reviewers (SASL, DM) and cross-checked. The methodological quality of each trial was assessed by the same two reviewers. Details of the randomization (generation and concealment), blinding, whether an intention-to-treat analysis was done, and the number of patients lost to follow-up were recorded. The results of each RCT were summarised on an intention-to-treat basis in 2 x 2 tables for each outcome. External validity was defined by characteristics of the participants, the interventions and the outcomes. The RCTs were stratified according to the level of colorectal anastomosis. The Risk Difference method (random effects model) and NNT for dichotomous outcomes measures and weighted mean difference for continuous outcomes measures, with the corresponding 95% confidence interval, were presented in this review. Statistical heterogeneity was evaluated by using funnel plot and chi-square testing. Of the 1233 patients enrolled ( in 9 trials), 622 were treated with stapled, and 611 with manual, suture. The following main results were obtained: a) Mortality: result based on 901 patients; Risk Difference - 0.6% Confidence Interval -2.8% to +1.6%. b) Overall Dehiscence: result based on 1233 patients; Risk Difference 0.2%, 95% Confidence Interval -5.0% to +5.3%. c) Clinical Anastomotic Dehiscence : result based on 1233 patients; Risk Difference -1.4%, 95% Confidence Interval -5.2 to +2.3%. d) Radiological Anastomotic Dehiscence : result based on 825 patients; Risk Difference 1.2%, 95% Confidence Interval -4.8% to +7.3%. e) Stricture: result based on 1042 patients; Risk Difference 4.6%, 95% Confidence Interval 1.2% to 8.1%. Number needed to treat 17, 95% confidence interval 12 to 31. f) Anastomotic Hemorrhage: result based on 662 patients; Risk Difference 2.7%, 95% Confidence Interval - 0.1% to +5.5%. g) Reoperation: result based on 544 patients; Risk Difference 3.9%, 95% Confidence Interval 0.3% to 7.4%. h) Wound Infection: result based on 567 patients; Risk Difference 1.0%, 95% Confidence Interval -2.2% to +4.3%. i) Anastomosis duration: result based on one study (159 patients); Weighted Mean Difference -7.6 minutes, 95% Confidence Interval -12.9 to -2.2 minutes. j) Hospital Stay: result based on one study (159 patients), Weighted Mean Difference 2.0 days, 95% Confidence Interval -3.27 to +7.2 days. The evidence found was insufficient to demonstrate any superiority of stapled over handsewn techniques in colorectal anastomosis, regardless of the level of anastomosis.

Validity and test–retest reliability of a novel simple back extensor muscle strength test

PubMed Central

Harding, Amy T; Weeks, Benjamin Kurt; Horan, Sean A; Little, Andrew; Watson, Steven L; Beck, Belinda Ruth

2017-01-01

Objectives: To develop and determine convergent validity and reliability of a simple and inexpensive clinical test to quantify back extensor muscle strength. Methods: Two testing sessions were conducted, 7 days apart. Each session involved three trials of standing maximal isometric back extensor muscle strength using both the novel test and isokinetic dynamometry. Lumbar spine bone mineral density was examined by dual-energy X-ray absorptiometry. Validation was examined with Pearson correlations (r). Test–retest reliability was examined with intraclass correlation coefficients and limits of agreement. Pearson correlations and intraclass correlation coefficients are presented with corresponding 95% confidence intervals. Linear regression was used to examine the ability of peak back extensor muscle strength to predict indices of lumbar spine bone mineral density and strength. Results: A total of 52 healthy adults (26 men, 26 women) aged 46.4 ± 20.4 years were recruited from the community. A strong positive relationship was observed between peak back extensor strength from hand-held and isokinetic dynamometry (r = 0.824, p < 0.001). For the novel back extensor strength test, short- and long-term reliability was excellent (intraclass correlation coefficient = 0.983 (95% confidence interval, 0.971–0.990), p < 0.001 and intraclass correlation coefficient = 0.901 (95% confidence interval, 0.833–0.943), p < 0.001, respectively). Limits of agreement for short-term repeated back extensor strength measures with the novel back extensor strength protocol were −6.63 to 7.70 kg, with a mean bias of +0.71 kg. Back extensor strength predicted 11% of variance in lumbar spine bone mineral density (p < 0.05) and 9% of lumbar spine index of bone structural strength (p < 0.05). Conclusion: Our novel hand-held dynamometer method to determine back extensor muscle strength is quick, relatively inexpensive, and reliable; demonstrates initial convergent validity in a healthy population; and is associated with bone mass at a clinically important site. PMID:28255442

PGS-FISH in reproductive medicine and perspective directions for improvement: a systematic review.

PubMed

Zamora, Sandra; Clavero, Ana; Gonzalvo, M Carmen; de Dios Luna Del Castillo, Juan; Roldán-Nofuentes, Jose Antonio; Mozas, Juan; Castilla, Jose Antonio

2011-08-01

Embryo selection can be carried out via morphological criteria or by using genetic studies based on Preimplantation Genetic Screening. In the present study, we evaluate the clinical validity of Preimplantation Genetic Screening with fluorescence in situ hybridization (PGS-FISH) compared with morphological embryo criteria. A systematic review was made of the bibliography, with the following goals: firstly, to determine the prevalence of embryo chromosome alteration in clinical situations in which the PGS-FISH technique has been used; secondly, to calculate the statistics of diagnostic efficiency (negative Likelihood Ratio), using 2 × 2 tables, derived from PGS-FISH. The results obtained were compared with those obtained from embryo morphology. We calculated the probability of transferring at least one chromosome-normal embryo when it was selected using either morphological criteria or PGS-FISH, and considered what diagnostic performance should be expected of an embryo selection test with respect to achieving greater clinical validity than that obtained from embryo morphology. After an embryo morphology selection that produced a negative result (normal morphology), the likelihood of embryo aneuploidies was found to range from a pre-test value of 65% (prevalence of embryo chromosome alteration registered in all the study groups) to a post-test value of 55% (Confidence interval: 50-61), while after PGS-FISH with a negative result (euploid), the post-test probability was 42% (Confidence interval: 35-49) (p < 0.05). The probability of transferring at least one euploid embryo was the same whether 3 embryos were selected according to morphological criteria or whether 2, selected by PGS-FISH, were transferred. Any embryo selection test, if it is to provide greater clinical validity than embryo morphology, must present a LR-value of 0.40 (Confidence interval: 0.32-0.51) in single embryo transfer, and 0.06 (CI: 0.05-0.07) in double embryo transfer. With currently available technology, and taking into account the number of embryos to be transferred, the clinical validity of PGS-FISH, although superior to that of morphological criteria, does not appear to be clinically relevant.

Descriptive Statistics: Reporting the Answers to the 5 Basic Questions of Who, What, Why, When, Where, and a Sixth, So What?

PubMed

Vetter, Thomas R

2017-11-01

Descriptive statistics are specific methods basically used to calculate, describe, and summarize collected research data in a logical, meaningful, and efficient way. Descriptive statistics are reported numerically in the manuscript text and/or in its tables, or graphically in its figures. This basic statistical tutorial discusses a series of fundamental concepts about descriptive statistics and their reporting. The mean, median, and mode are 3 measures of the center or central tendency of a set of data. In addition to a measure of its central tendency (mean, median, or mode), another important characteristic of a research data set is its variability or dispersion (ie, spread). In simplest terms, variability is how much the individual recorded scores or observed values differ from one another. The range, standard deviation, and interquartile range are 3 measures of variability or dispersion. The standard deviation is typically reported for a mean, and the interquartile range for a median. Testing for statistical significance, along with calculating the observed treatment effect (or the strength of the association between an exposure and an outcome), and generating a corresponding confidence interval are 3 tools commonly used by researchers (and their collaborating biostatistician or epidemiologist) to validly make inferences and more generalized conclusions from their collected data and descriptive statistics. A number of journals, including Anesthesia & Analgesia, strongly encourage or require the reporting of pertinent confidence intervals. A confidence interval can be calculated for virtually any variable or outcome measure in an experimental, quasi-experimental, or observational research study design. Generally speaking, in a clinical trial, the confidence interval is the range of values within which the true treatment effect in the population likely resides. In an observational study, the confidence interval is the range of values within which the true strength of the association between the exposure and the outcome (eg, the risk ratio or odds ratio) in the population likely resides. There are many possible ways to graphically display or illustrate different types of data. While there is often latitude as to the choice of format, ultimately, the simplest and most comprehensible format is preferred. Common examples include a histogram, bar chart, line chart or line graph, pie chart, scatterplot, and box-and-whisker plot. Valid and reliable descriptive statistics can answer basic yet important questions about a research data set, namely: "Who, What, Why, When, Where, How, How Much?"

Involving American Indians and medically underserved rural populations in cancer clinical trials.

PubMed

Guadagnolo, B Ashleigh; Petereit, Daniel G; Helbig, Petra; Koop, David; Kussman, Patricia; Fox Dunn, Emily; Patnaik, Asha

2009-12-01

To assess cancer clinical trial recruitment and reasons for nonaccrual among a rural, medically underserved population served by a community-based cancer care center. We prospectively tracked clinical trial enrollment incidence among all new patients presenting at the Rapid City Regional Cancer Care Institute. Evaluating physicians completed questionnaires for each patient regarding clinical trial enrollment status and primary reasons for nonenrollment. Patients who identified as American Indian were referred to a program where patients were assisted in navigating the medical system by trained, culturally competent staff. Between September 2006 and January 2008, 891 new cancer patients were evaluated. Seventy-eight patients (9%; 95% confidence intervals, 7-11%) were enrolled on a clinical treatment trial. For 73% (95% confidence intervals, 69-75%) of patients (646 of 891) lack of relevant protocol availability or protocol inclusion criteria restrictiveness was the reason for nonenrollment. Only 45 (5%; 95% confidence intervals, 4-7%) patients refused enrollment on a trial. Of the 78 enrolled on a trial, 6 (8%; 95% confidence intervals, 3-16%) were American Indian. Three additional American Indian patients were enrolled under a nontreatment cancer control trial, bringing the total percentage enrolled of the 94 American Indians who presented to the clinic to 10% (95% confidence intervals, 5-17%). Eligibility rates were unable to be calculated and cross validation of the number in the cohort via registries or ICD-9 codes was not performed. Clinical trial participation in this medically underserved population was low overall, but approximately 3-fold higher than reported national accrual rates. Lack of availability of protocols for common cancer sites as well as stringent protocol inclusion criteria were the primary obstacles to clinical trial enrollment. Targeted interventions using a Patient Navigation program were used to engage AI patients and may have resulted in higher clinical trial enrollment among this racial/ethnic group.

Involving American Indians and medically underserved rural populations in cancer clinical trials

PubMed Central

Guadagnolo, B Ashleigh; Petereit, Daniel G; Helbig, Petra; Koop, David; Kussman, Patricia; Dunn, Emily Fox; Patnaik, Asha

2010-01-01

Purpose To assess cancer clinical trial recruitment and reasons for nonaccrual among a rural, medically underserved population served by a community-based cancer care center. Methods We prospectively tracked clinical trial enrollment incidence among all new patients presenting at the Rapid City Regional Cancer Care Institute. Evaluating physicians completed questionnaires for each patient regarding clinical trial enrollment status and primary reasons for nonenrollment. Patients who identified as American Indian were referred to a program where patients were assisted in navigating the medical system by trained, culturally competent staff. Results Between September 2006 and January 2008, 891 new cancer patients were evaluated. Seventy-eight patients (9%; 95% confidence intervals, 7–11%) were enrolled on a clinical treatment trial. For 73% (95% confidence intervals, 69–75%) of patients (646 of 891) lack of relevant protocol availability or protocol inclusion criteria restrictiveness was the reason for nonenrollment. Only 45 (5%; 95% confidence intervals, 4–7%) patients refused enrollment on a trial. Of the 78 enrolled on a trial, 6 (8%; 95% confidence intervals, 3–16%) were American Indian. Three additional American Indian patients were enrolled under a nontreatment cancer control trial, bringing the total percentage enrolled of the 94 American Indians who presented to the clinic to 10% (95% confidence intervals, 5–17%). Limitations Eligibility rates were unable to be calculated and cross validation of the number in the cohort via registries or ICD-9 codes was not performed. Conclusion Clinical trial participation in this medically underserved population was low overall, but approximately 3-fold higher than reported national accrual rates. Lack of availability of protocols for common cancer sites as well as stringent protocol inclusion criteria were the primary obstacles to clinical trial enrollment. Targeted interventions using a Patient Navigation program were used to engage AI patients and may have resulted in higher clinical trial enrollment among this racial/ethnic group. PMID:19933720

Periodontal treatment during pregnancy and birth outcomes: a meta-analysis of randomised trials.

PubMed

George, Ajesh; Shamim, Simin; Johnson, Maree; Ajwani, Shilpi; Bhole, Sameer; Blinkhorn, Anthony; Ellis, Sharon; Andrews, Karen

2011-06-01

The objective of this review was to conduct a meta-analysis of all up-to-date randomised control trials to determine whether periodontal treatment during pregnancy has the potential of reducing preterm birth and low birth weight incidence. Bibliographic databases MEDLINE (1966-present), EMBASE (1980-present), CINAHL (1982-present) and the Cochrane library up to and including 2010 Issue 10 were searched. The reference list of included studies and reviews were also searched for additional literature. Eligible studies were, published and ongoing randomised control trials that compared pregnancy outcomes for pregnant women who received periodontal treatment during the prenatal period. Two of the investigators independently assessed the studies and then extracted and summarised data from eligible trials. Extracted data were entered into Review Manager software and analysed. A total of 5645 pregnant women participated in the 10 eligible trials. Meta-analysis found that periodontal treatment significantly lowered preterm birth (odd ratio 0.65; 95% confidence interval, 0.45-0.93; P = 0.02) and low birth weight (odd ratio 0.53; 95% confidence interval, 0.31-0.92; P = 0.02) rates while no significant difference was found for spontaneous abortion/stillbirth (odd ratio 0.71; 95% confidence interval, 0.43-1.16; P = 0.17). Moderate heterogeneity was observed among the studies for preterm birth and low birth weight. Subgroup analysis showed significant effect of periodontal treatment in pregnant women with low rate of previous preterm birth/low birth weight (odd ratio 0.35; 95% confidence interval, 017-0.70; P = 0.003) and less severe periodontal disease (odd ratio 0.49; confidence interval, 028-0.87; P = 0.01) as defined by probing depth. The cumulative evidence suggests that periodontal treatment during pregnancy may reduce preterm birth and low birth weight incidence. However, these findings need to be further validated through larger more targeted randomised control trials. © 2011 The Authors. International Journal of Evidence-Based Healthcare © 2011 The Joanna Briggs Institute.

Women seeking treatment for advanced pelvic organ prolapse have decreased body image and quality of life.

PubMed

Jelovsek, J Eric; Barber, Matthew D

2006-05-01

Women who seek treatment for pelvic organ prolapse strive for an improvement in quality of life. Body image has been shown to be an important component of differences in quality of life. To date, there are no data on body image in patients with advanced pelvic organ prolapse. Our objective was to compare body image and quality of life in women with advanced pelvic organ prolapse with normal controls. We used a case-control study design. Cases were defined as subjects who presented to a tertiary urogynecology clinic with advanced pelvic organ prolapse (stage 3 or 4). Controls were defined as subjects who presented to a tertiary care gynecology or women's health clinic for an annual visit with normal pelvic floor support (stage 0 or 1) and without urinary incontinence. All patients completed a valid and reliable body image scale and a generalized (Short Form Health Survey) and condition-specific (Pelvic Floor Distress Inventory-20) quality-of-life scale. Linear and logistic regression analyses were performed to adjust for possible confounding variables. Forty-seven case and 51 control subjects were enrolled. After controlling for age, race, parity, previous hysterectomy, and medical comorbidities, subjects with advanced pelvic organ prolapse were more likely to feel self-conscious (adjusted odds ratio 4.7; 95% confidence interval 1.4 to 18, P = .02), less likely to feel physically attractive (adjusted odds ratio 11; 95% confidence interval 2.9 to 51, P < .001), less likely to feel feminine (adjusted odds ratio 4.0; 95% confidence interval 1.2 to 15, P = .03), and less likely to feel sexually attractive (adjusted odds ratio 4.6; 95% confidence interval 1.4 to 17, P = .02) than normal controls. The groups were similar in their feeling of dissatisfaction with appearance when dressed, difficulty looking at themselves naked, avoiding people because of appearance, and overall dissatisfaction with their body. Subjects with advanced pelvic organ prolapse suffered significantly lower quality of life on the physical scale of the SF-12 (mean 42; 95% confidence interval 39 to 45 versus mean 50; 95% confidence interval 47 to 53, P < .009). However, no differences between groups were noted on the mental scale of the SF-12 (mean 51; 95% confidence interval 50 to 54 versus mean 50; 95% confidence interval 47 to 52, P = .56). Additionally, subjects with advanced pelvic organ prolapse scored significantly worse on the prolapse, urinary, and colorectal scales and overall summary score of Pelvic Floor Distress Inventory-20 than normal controls (mean summary score 104; 95% confidence interval 90 to 118 versus mean 29; 95% confidence interval 16 to 43, P < .0001), indicating a decrease in condition-specific quality of life. Worsening body image correlated with lower quality of life on both the physical and mental scales of the SF-12 as well as the prolapse, urinary, and colorectal scales and overall summary score of Pelvic Floor Distress Inventory-20 in subjects with advanced pelvic organ prolapse. Women seeking treatment for advanced pelvic organ prolapse have decreased body image and overall quality of life. Body image may be a key determinant for quality of life in patients with advanced prolapse and may be an important outcome measure for treatment evaluation in clinical trials.

Non-alcoholic fatty liver disease is associated with high prevalence of gastro-oesophageal reflux symptoms.

PubMed

Miele, Luca; Cammarota, Giovanni; Vero, Vittoria; Racco, Simona; Cefalo, Consuelo; Marrone, Giuseppe; Pompili, Maurizio; Rapaccini, Gianlodovico; Bianco, Alessandro; Landolfi, Raffaele; Gasbarrini, Antonio; Grieco, Antonio

2012-12-01

Gastro-oesophageal reflux symptoms are usually reported by patients with obesity and metabolic syndrome. Aim of this study was to assess the prevalence and clinical characteristics of gastro-oesophageal reflux symptoms in subjects with non-alcoholic fatty liver disease. Cross-sectional, case-control study of 185 consecutive patients with non-alcoholic fatty liver disease and an age- and sex-matched control group of 112 healthy volunteers. Participants were interviewed with the aid of a previously validated questionnaire to assess lifestyle and reflux symptoms in the 3 months preceding enrolment. Odds ratios were determined before and after adjustment for body mass index, increased waist circumference, physical activity, metabolic syndrome and proton pump inhibitors and/or antiacid medication. The prevalence of heartburn and/or regurgitation and of at least one of gastro-oesophageal reflux symptoms was significantly higher in the non-alcoholic fatty liver disease group. Non-alcoholic fatty liver disease subjects were associated to higher prevalence of heartburn (adjusted odds ratios: 2.17, 95% confidence intervals: 1.16-4.04), regurgitation (adjusted odds ratios: 2.61, 95% confidence intervals: 1.24-5.48) and belching (adjusted odds ratios: 2.01, 95% confidence intervals: 1.12-3.59) and had higher prevalence of at least one GER symptom (adjusted odds ratios: 3.34, 95% confidence intervals: 1.76-6.36). Non-alcoholic fatty liver disease is associated with a higher prevalence of gastro-oesophageal reflux symptoms. Copyright © 2012 Editrice Gastroenterologica Italiana S.r.l. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Approximate Confidence Intervals for Moment-Based Estimators of the Between-Study Variance in Random Effects Meta-Analysis

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Jackson, Dan; Bowden, Jack; Baker, Rose

2015-01-01

Moment-based estimators of the between-study variance are very popular when performing random effects meta-analyses. This type of estimation has many advantages including computational and conceptual simplicity. Furthermore, by using these estimators in large samples, valid meta-analyses can be performed without the assumption that the treatment…

Validation Study of Maternal Recall on Breastfeeding Duration 6 Years After Childbirth.

PubMed

Amissah, Emma Ayorkor; Kancherla, Vijaya; Ko, Yi-An; Li, Ruowei

2017-05-01

Breastfeeding duration is an important indicator commonly measured in maternal and child health and nutrition research. Maternal short-term recall for both initiation and duration of breastfeeding has been shown to be valid; however, validity of long-term recall is not well understood. Research aim: This study aims to assess the validity of maternal recall of breastfeeding duration 6 years after childbirth and its association with sociodemographic factors. Among 635 mother-child pairs, breastfeeding duration data collected monthly throughout the 1st year after childbirth in the Infant Feeding Practices Study II (IFPS II) were compared to recall data obtained 6 years later during the Year 6 Follow-Up. The intraclass correlation coefficient (ICC) and Bland-Altman plots were examined to study the agreement between the two data sets. Sociodemographic factors associated with accurate recall to within 1 month of the IFPS II breastfeeding duration were assessed using multivariable logistic regression modeling. Maternal recall of breastfeeding duration was found to be valid 6 years after childbirth with a small median overall bias (1 week) toward overestimation. The overall concordance was high (ICC = 0.84), except for high school graduates (ICC = 0.63) and smokers (ICC = 0.61). Smokers (adjusted odds ratio = 0.52; 95% confidence interval [0.4, 0.8]) and multiparous women (adjusted odds ratio = 0.57; 95% confidence interval [0.4, 0.9]) were also less likely to give an accurate recall of their breastfeeding duration to within 1 month. Our study found that maternal recall of breastfeeding duration varies by sociodemographic factors but is accurate 6 years after childbirth.

A closer look at the relationships between panic attacks, emergency department visits and non-cardiac chest pain.

PubMed

Foldes-Busque, Guillaume; Denis, Isabelle; Poitras, Julien; Fleet, Richard P; Archambault, Patrick; Dionne, Clermont E

2017-01-01

This study examined the prevalence of emergency department visits prompted by panic attacks in patients with non-cardiac chest pain. A validated structured telephone interview was used to assess panic attacks and their association with the emergency department consultation in 1327 emergency department patients with non-cardiac chest pain. Patients reported at least one panic attack in the past 6 months in 34.5 per cent (95% confidence interval: 32.0%-37.1%) of cases, and 77.1 per cent (95% confidence interval: 73.0%-80.7%) of patients who reported panic attacks had visited the emergency department with non-cardiac chest pain following a panic attack. These results indicate that panic attacks may explain a significant proportion of emergency department visits for non-cardiac chest pain.

Criterion-related validity of perceived exertion scales in healthy children: a systematic review and meta-analysis.

PubMed

Rodríguez, Iván; Zambrano, Lysien; Manterola, Carlos

2016-04-01

Physiological parameters used to measure exercise intensity are oxygen uptake and heart rate. However, perceived exertion (PE) is a scale that has also been frequently applied. The objective of this study is to establish the criterion-related validity of PE scales in children during an incremental exercise test. Seven electronic databases were used. Studies aimed at assessing criterion-related validity of PE scales in healthy children during an incremental exercise test were included. Correlation coefficients were transformed into z-values and assessed in a meta-analysis by means of a fixed effects model if I2 was below 50% or a random effects model, if it was above 50%. wenty-five articles that studied 1418 children (boys: 49.2%) met the inclusion criteria. Children's average age was 10.5 years old. Exercise modalities included bike, running and stepping exercises. The weighted correlation coefficient was 0.835 (95% confidence interval: 0.762-0.887) and 0.874 (95% confidence interval: 0.794-0.924) for heart rate and oxygen uptake as reference criteria. The production paradigm and scales that had not been adapted to children showed the lowest measurement performance (p < 0.05). Measuring PE could be valid in healthy children during an incremental exercise test. Child-specific rating scales showed a better performance than those that had not been adapted to this population. Further studies with better methodological quality should be conducted in order to confirm these results. Sociedad Argentina de Pediatría.

Word Memory Test Predicts Recovery in Claimants With Work-Related Head Injury.

PubMed

Colangelo, Annette; Abada, Abigail; Haws, Calvin; Park, Joanne; Niemeläinen, Riikka; Gross, Douglas P

2016-05-01

To investigate the predictive validity of the Word Memory Test (WMT), a verbal memory neuropsychological test developed as a performance validity measure to assess memory, effort, and performance consistency. Cohort study with 1-year follow-up. Workers' compensation rehabilitation facility. Participants included workers' compensation claimants with work-related head injury (N=188; mean age, 44y; 161 men [85.6%]). Not applicable. Outcome measures for determining predictive validity included days to suspension of wage replacement benefits during the 1-year follow-up and work status at discharge in claimants undergoing rehabilitation. Analysis included multivariable Cox and logistic regression. Better WMT performance was significantly but weakly correlated with younger age (r=-.30), documented brain abnormality (r=.28), and loss of consciousness at the time of injury (r=.25). Claimants with documented brain abnormalities on diagnostic imaging scans performed better (∼9%) on the WMT than those without brain abnormalities. The WMT predicted days receiving benefits (adjusted hazard ratio, 1.13; 95% confidence interval, 1.04-1.24) and work status outcome at program discharge (adjusted odds ratio, 1.62; 95% confidence interval, 1.13-2.34). Our results provide evidence for the predictive validity of the WMT in workers' compensation claimants. Younger claimants and those with more severe brain injuries performed better on the WMT. It may be that financial incentives or other factors related to the compensation claim affected the performance. Copyright © 2016 American Congress of Rehabilitation Medicine. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Reducing the width of confidence intervals for the difference between two population means by inverting adaptive tests.

PubMed

O'Gorman, Thomas W

2018-05-01

In the last decade, it has been shown that an adaptive testing method could be used, along with the Robbins-Monro search procedure, to obtain confidence intervals that are often narrower than traditional confidence intervals. However, these confidence interval limits require a great deal of computation and some familiarity with stochastic search methods. We propose a method for estimating the limits of confidence intervals that uses only a few tests of significance. We compare these limits to those obtained by a lengthy Robbins-Monro stochastic search and find that the proposed method is nearly as accurate as the Robbins-Monro search. Adaptive confidence intervals that are produced by the proposed method are often narrower than traditional confidence intervals when the distributions are long-tailed, skewed, or bimodal. Moreover, the proposed method of estimating confidence interval limits is easy to understand, because it is based solely on the p-values from a few tests of significance.

Nonalcoholic fatty liver disease: MR imaging of liver proton density fat fraction to assess hepatic steatosis.

PubMed

Tang, An; Tan, Justin; Sun, Mark; Hamilton, Gavin; Bydder, Mark; Wolfson, Tanya; Gamst, Anthony C; Middleton, Michael; Brunt, Elizabeth M; Loomba, Rohit; Lavine, Joel E; Schwimmer, Jeffrey B; Sirlin, Claude B

2013-05-01

To evaluate the diagnostic performance of magnetic resonance (MR) imaging-estimated proton density fat fraction (PDFF) for assessing hepatic steatosis in nonalcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) by using centrally scored histopathologic validation as the reference standard. This prospectively designed, cross-sectional, internal review board-approved, HIPAA-compliant study was conducted in 77 patients who had NAFLD and liver biopsy. MR imaging-PDFF was estimated from magnitude-based low flip angle multiecho gradient-recalled echo images after T2* correction and multifrequency fat modeling. Histopathologic scoring was obtained by consensus of the Nonalcoholic Steatohepatitis (NASH) Clinical Research Network Pathology Committee. Spearman correlation, additivity and variance stabilization for regression for exploring the effect of a number of potential confounders, and receiver operating characteristic analyses were performed. Liver MR imaging-PDFF was systematically higher, with higher histologic steatosis grade (P < .001), and was significantly correlated with histologic steatosis grade (ρ = 0.69, P < .001). The correlation was not confounded by age, sex, lobular inflammation, hepatocellular ballooning, NASH diagnosis, fibrosis, or magnetic field strength (P = .65). Area under the receiver operating characteristic curves was 0.989 (95% confidence interval: 0.968, 1.000) for distinguishing patients with steatosis grade 0 (n = 5) from those with grade 1 or higher (n = 72), 0.825 (95% confidence interval: 0.734, 0.915) to distinguish those with grade 1 or lower (n = 31) from those with grade 2 or higher (n = 46), and 0.893 (95% confidence interval: 0.809, 0.977) to distinguish those with grade 2 or lower (n = 58) from those with grade 3 (n = 19). MR imaging-PDFF showed promise for assessment of hepatic steatosis grade in patients with NAFLD. For validation, further studies with larger sample sizes are needed. © RSNA, 2013.

Substitution of Linoleic Acid for Other Macronutrients and the Risk of Ischemic Stroke.

PubMed

Venø, Stine K; Schmidt, Erik B; Jakobsen, Marianne U; Lundbye-Christensen, Søren; Bach, Flemming W; Overvad, Kim

2017-12-01

Ischemic stroke is a major health problem worldwide, but the influence of dietary factors on stroke risk is not well known. This study aimed to investigate the risk of ischemic stroke and its subtypes with a higher intake from linoleic acid and a concomitant lower intake from saturated fatty acids, monounsaturated fatty acids, or glycemic carbohydrates. In the Danish prospective Diet, Cancer, and Health Study of 57 053 participants aged 50 to 64 years at baseline, information on diet was collected using a validated semiquantitative food frequency questionnaire. Information on ischemic stroke was obtained from the Danish National Patient Register, and cases were all validated and subclassified according to the TOAST (Trial of ORG 10172 in Acute Stroke Treatment) classification. Substitution of linoleic acid for saturated fatty acid, monounsaturated fatty acid, or glycemic carbohydrates was investigated in relation to the risk of ischemic stroke and subtypes. Cox proportional hazards regression was used to estimate the associations with ischemic stroke adjusting for appropriate confounders. During 13.5 years of follow-up 1879 participants developed ischemic stroke. A slightly lower risk of ischemic stroke was found with a 5% higher intake of linoleic acid and a concomitant lower intake of saturated fatty acid (hazard ratio, 0.98; 95% confidence interval, 0.83-1.16), monounsaturated fatty acid (hazard ratio, 0.80; 95% confidence interval, 0.63-1.02), and glycemic carbohydrates (hazard ratio, 0.92; 95% confidence interval, 0.78-1.09), although not statistically significant. Similar patterns of association were found for large-artery atherosclerosis and small-vessel occlusions. This study suggests that replacing saturated fatty acid, glycemic carbohydrate, or monounsaturated fatty acid with linoleic acid may be associated with a lower risk of ischemic stroke. © 2017 American Heart Association, Inc.

Quantitative fetal fibronectin and cervical length to predict preterm birth in asymptomatic women with previous cervical surgery.

PubMed

Vandermolen, Brooke I; Hezelgrave, Natasha L; Smout, Elizabeth M; Abbott, Danielle S; Seed, Paul T; Shennan, Andrew H

2016-10-01

Quantitative fetal fibronectin testing has demonstrated accuracy for prediction of spontaneous preterm birth in asymptomatic women with a history of preterm birth. Predictive accuracy in women with previous cervical surgery (a potentially different risk mechanism) is not known. We sought to compare the predictive accuracy of cervicovaginal fluid quantitative fetal fibronectin and cervical length testing in asymptomatic women with previous cervical surgery to that in women with 1 previous preterm birth. We conducted a prospective blinded secondary analysis of a larger observational study of cervicovaginal fluid quantitative fetal fibronectin concentration in asymptomatic women measured with a Hologic 10Q system (Hologic, Marlborough, MA). Prediction of spontaneous preterm birth (<30, <34, and <37 weeks) with cervicovaginal fluid quantitative fetal fibronectin concentration in primiparous women who had undergone at least 1 invasive cervical procedure (n = 473) was compared with prediction in women who had previous spontaneous preterm birth, preterm prelabor rupture of membranes, or late miscarriage (n = 821). Relationship with cervical length was explored. The rate of spontaneous preterm birth <34 weeks in the cervical surgery group was 3% compared with 9% in previous spontaneous preterm birth group. Receiver operating characteristic curves comparing quantitative fetal fibronectin for prediction at all 3 gestational end points were comparable between the cervical surgery and previous spontaneous preterm birth groups (34 weeks: area under the curve, 0.78 [95% confidence interval 0.64-0.93] vs 0.71 [95% confidence interval 0.64-0.78]; P = .39). Prediction of spontaneous preterm birth using cervical length compared with quantitative fetal fibronectin for prediction of preterm birth <34 weeks of gestation offered similar prediction (area under the curve, 0.88 [95% confidence interval 0.79-0.96] vs 0.77 [95% confidence interval 0.62-0.92], P = .12 in the cervical surgery group; and 0.77 [95% confidence interval 0.70-0.84] vs 0.74 [95% confidence interval 0.67-0.81], P = .32 in the previous spontaneous preterm birth group). Prediction of spontaneous preterm birth using cervicovaginal fluid quantitative fetal fibronectin in asymptomatic women with cervical surgery is valid, and has comparative accuracy to that in women with a history of spontaneous preterm birth. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Empirical likelihood-based confidence intervals for mean medical cost with censored data.

PubMed

Jeyarajah, Jenny; Qin, Gengsheng

2017-11-10

In this paper, we propose empirical likelihood methods based on influence function and jackknife techniques for constructing confidence intervals for mean medical cost with censored data. We conduct a simulation study to compare the coverage probabilities and interval lengths of our proposed confidence intervals with that of the existing normal approximation-based confidence intervals and bootstrap confidence intervals. The proposed methods have better finite-sample performances than existing methods. Finally, we illustrate our proposed methods with a relevant example. Copyright © 2017 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Derivation and external validation of a case mix model for the standardized reporting of 30-day stroke mortality rates.

PubMed

Bray, Benjamin D; Campbell, James; Cloud, Geoffrey C; Hoffman, Alex; James, Martin; Tyrrell, Pippa J; Wolfe, Charles D A; Rudd, Anthony G

2014-11-01

Case mix adjustment is required to allow valid comparison of outcomes across care providers. However, there is a lack of externally validated models suitable for use in unselected stroke admissions. We therefore aimed to develop and externally validate prediction models to enable comparison of 30-day post-stroke mortality outcomes using routine clinical data. Models were derived (n=9000 patients) and internally validated (n=18 169 patients) using data from the Sentinel Stroke National Audit Program, the national register of acute stroke in England and Wales. External validation (n=1470 patients) was performed in the South London Stroke Register, a population-based longitudinal study. Models were fitted using general estimating equations. Discrimination and calibration were assessed using receiver operating characteristic curve analysis and correlation plots. Two final models were derived. Model A included age (<60, 60-69, 70-79, 80-89, and ≥90 years), National Institutes of Health Stroke Severity Score (NIHSS) on admission, presence of atrial fibrillation on admission, and stroke type (ischemic versus primary intracerebral hemorrhage). Model B was similar but included only the consciousness component of the NIHSS in place of the full NIHSS. Both models showed excellent discrimination and calibration in internal and external validation. The c-statistics in external validation were 0.87 (95% confidence interval, 0.84-0.89) and 0.86 (95% confidence interval, 0.83-0.89) for models A and B, respectively. We have derived and externally validated 2 models to predict mortality in unselected patients with acute stroke using commonly collected clinical variables. In settings where the ability to record the full NIHSS on admission is limited, the level of consciousness component of the NIHSS provides a good approximation of the full NIHSS for mortality prediction. © 2014 American Heart Association, Inc.

Constructing Confidence Intervals for Reliability Coefficients Using Central and Noncentral Distributions.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Weber, Deborah A.

Greater understanding and use of confidence intervals is central to changes in statistical practice (G. Cumming and S. Finch, 2001). Reliability coefficients and confidence intervals for reliability coefficients can be computed using a variety of methods. Estimating confidence intervals includes both central and noncentral distribution approaches.…

Can 3-dimensional power Doppler indices improve the prenatal diagnosis of a potentially morbidly adherent placenta in patients with placenta previa?

PubMed

Haidar, Ziad A; Papanna, Ramesha; Sibai, Baha M; Tatevian, Nina; Viteri, Oscar A; Vowels, Patricia C; Blackwell, Sean C; Moise, Kenneth J

2017-08-01

Traditionally, 2-dimensional ultrasound parameters have been used for the diagnosis of a suspected morbidly adherent placenta previa. More objective techniques have not been well studied yet. The objective of the study was to determine the ability of prenatal 3-dimensional power Doppler analysis of flow and vascular indices to predict the morbidly adherent placenta objectively. A prospective cohort study was performed in women between 28 and 32 gestational weeks with known placenta previa. Patients underwent a two-dimensional gray-scale ultrasound that determined management decisions. 3-Dimensional power Doppler volumes were obtained during the same examination and vascular, flow, and vascular flow indices were calculated after manual tracing of the viewed placenta in the sweep; data were blinded to obstetricians. Morbidly adherent placenta was confirmed by histology. Severe morbidly adherent placenta was defined as increta/percreta on histology, blood loss >2000 mL, and >2 units of PRBC transfused. Sensitivities, specificities, predictive values, and likelihood ratios were calculated. Student t and χ 2 tests, logistic regression, receiver-operating characteristic curves, and intra- and interrater agreements using Kappa statistics were performed. The following results were found: (1) 50 women were studied: 23 had morbidly adherent placenta, of which 12 (52.2%) were severe morbidly adherent placenta; (2) 2-dimensional parameters diagnosed morbidly adherent placenta with a sensitivity of 82.6% (95% confidence interval, 60.4-94.2), a specificity of 88.9% (95% confidence interval, 69.7-97.1), a positive predictive value of 86.3% (95% confidence interval, 64.0-96.4), a negative predictive value of 85.7% (95% confidence interval, 66.4-95.3), a positive likelihood ratio of 7.4 (95% confidence interval, 2.5-21.9), and a negative likelihood ratio of 0.2 (95% confidence interval, 0.08-0.48); (3) mean values of the vascular index (32.8 ± 7.4) and the vascular flow index (14.2 ± 3.8) were higher in morbidly adherent placenta (P < .001); (4) area under the receiver-operating characteristic curve for the vascular and vascular flow indices were 0.99 and 0.97, respectively; (5) the vascular index ≥21 predicted morbidly adherent placenta with a sensitivity and a specificity of 95% (95% confidence interval, 88.2-96.9) and 91%, respectively (95% confidence interval, 87.5-92.4), 92% positive predictive value (95% confidence interval, 85.5-94.3), 90% negative predictive value (95% confidence interval, 79.9-95.3), positive likelihood ratio of 10.55 (95% confidence interval, 7.06-12.75), and negative likelihood ratio of 0.05 (95% confidence interval, 0.03-0.13); and (6) for the severe morbidly adherent placenta, 2-dimensional ultrasound had a sensitivity of 33.3% (95% confidence interval, 11.3-64.6), a specificity of 81.8% (95% confidence interval, 47.8-96.8), a positive predictive value of 66.7% (95% confidence interval, 24.1-94.1), a negative predictive value of 52.9% (95% confidence interval, 28.5-76.1), a positive likelihood ratio of 1.83 (95% confidence interval, 0.41-8.11), and a negative likelihood ratio of 0.81 (95% confidence interval, 0.52-1.26). A vascular index ≥31 predicted the diagnosis of a severe morbidly adherent placenta with a 100% sensitivity (95% confidence interval, 72-100), a 90% specificity (95% confidence interval, 81.7-93.8), an 88% positive predictive value (95% confidence interval, 55.0-91.3), a 100% negative predictive value (95% confidence interval, 90.9-100), a positive likelihood ratio of 10.0 (95% confidence interval, 3.93-16.13), and a negative likelihood ratio of 0 (95% confidence interval, 0-0.34). Intrarater and interrater agreements were 94% (P < .001) and 93% (P < .001), respectively. The vascular index accurately predicts the morbidly adherent placenta in patients with placenta previa. In addition, 3-dimensional power Doppler vascular and vascular flow indices were more predictive of severe cases of morbidly adherent placenta compared with 2-dimensional ultrasound. This objective technique may limit the variations in diagnosing morbidly adherent placenta because of the subjectivity of 2-dimensional ultrasound interpretations. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Accurate estimation of normal incidence absorption coefficients with confidence intervals using a scanning laser Doppler vibrometer

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vuye, Cedric; Vanlanduit, Steve; Guillaume, Patrick

2009-06-01

When using optical measurements of the sound fields inside a glass tube, near the material under test, to estimate the reflection and absorption coefficients, not only these acoustical parameters but also confidence intervals can be determined. The sound fields are visualized using a scanning laser Doppler vibrometer (SLDV). In this paper the influence of different test signals on the quality of the results, obtained with this technique, is examined. The amount of data gathered during one measurement scan makes a thorough statistical analysis possible leading to the knowledge of confidence intervals. The use of a multi-sine, constructed on the resonance frequencies of the test tube, shows to be a very good alternative for the traditional periodic chirp. This signal offers the ability to obtain data for multiple frequencies in one measurement, without the danger of a low signal-to-noise ratio. The variability analysis in this paper clearly shows the advantages of the proposed multi-sine compared to the periodic chirp. The measurement procedure and the statistical analysis are validated by measuring the reflection ratio at a closed end and comparing the results with the theoretical value. Results of the testing of two building materials (an acoustic ceiling tile and linoleum) are presented and compared to supplier data.

The validity of visual acuity assessment using mobile technology devices in the primary care setting.

PubMed

O'Neill, Samuel; McAndrew, Darryl J

2016-04-01

The assessment of visual acuity is indicated in a number of clinical circumstances. It is commonly conducted through the use of a Snellen wall chart. Mobile technology developments and adoption rates by clinicians may potentially provide more convenient methods of assessing visual acuity. Limited data exist on the validity of these devices and applications. The objective of this study was to evaluate the assessment of distance visual acuity using mobile technology devices against the commonly used 3-metre Snellen chart in a primary care setting. A prospective quantitative comparative study was conducted at a regional medical practice. The visual acuity of 60 participants was assessed on a Snellen wall chart and two mobile technology devices (iPhone, iPad). Visual acuity intervals were converted to logarithm of minimum angle of resolution (logMAR) scores and subjected to intraclass correlation coefficient (ICC) assessment. The results show a high level of general agreement between testing modality (ICC 0.917 with a 95% confidence interval of 0.887-0.940). The high level of agreement of visual acuity results between the Snellen wall chart and both mobile technology devices suggests that clinicians can use this technology with confidence in the primary care setting.

Abnormal ranges of vital signs in children in Japanese prehospital settings.

PubMed

Nosaka, Nobuyuki; Muguruma, Takashi; Knaup, Emily; Tsukahara, Kohei; Enomoto, Yuki; Kaku, Noriyuki

2015-10-01

The revised Fire Service Law obliges each prefectural government in Japan to establish a prehospital acuity scale. The Foundation for Ambulance Service Development (FASD) created an acuity scale for use as a reference. Our preliminary survey revealed that 32 of 47 prefectures directly applied the FASD scale for children. This scale shows abnormal ranges of heart rate and respiratory rate in young children. This study aimed to evaluate the validity of the abnormal ranges on the FASD scale to assess its overall performance for triage purposes in paediatric patients. We evaluated the validity of the ranges by comparing published centile charts for these vital signs with records of 1,296 ambulance patients. A large portion of the abnormal ranges on the scale substantially overlapped with the normal centile charts. Triage decisions using the FASD scale of vital signs properly classified 22% ( n  = 287) of children. The sensitivity and specificity for high urgency were as high as 91% (95% confidence interval, 82-96%) and as low as 18% (95% confidence interval, 16-20%). We found there is room for improvement of the abnormal ranges on the FASD scale.

Validity of the SC-StepMX pedometer during treadmill walking and running.

PubMed

Colley, Rachel C; Barnes, Joel D; Leblanc, Allana G; Borghese, Michael; Boyer, Charles; Tremblay, Mark S

2013-05-01

The purpose of this study was to examine the validity of the SC-StepMX pedometer for measuring step counts. A convenience sample of 40 participants wore 4 SC-StepMX pedometers, 2 Yamax DigiWalker pedometers, and 2 Actical accelerometers around their waist on a treadmill at 4 speeds based on each participant's self-paced walking speed (50%, 100%, 180%, and 250%; range: 1.4-14.1 km·h(-1)). The SC-StepMX demonstrated lower mean absolute percent error (-0.2%) compared with the Yamax DigiWalker (-20.5%) and the Actical (-26.1%). Mean measurement bias was lower for the SC-StepMX (0.1 ± 9.1; 95% confidence interval = -17.8 to 18.0 steps·min(-1)) when compared with both the Yamax DigiWalker (-15.9 ± 23.3; 95% confidence interval = -61.6 to 29.7 steps·min(-1)) and the Actical (-22.0 ± 36.3; 95% CI = -93.1 to 49.1 steps·min(-1)). This study demonstrates that the SC-StepMX pedometer is a valid tool for the measurement of step counts. The SC-StepMX accurately measures step counts at slower walking speeds when compared with 2 other commercially available activity monitors. This makes the SC-StepMX useful in measuring step counts in populations that are active at lower intensities (e.g., sedentary individuals, the elderly).

External Validation of a Case-Mix Adjustment Model for the Standardized Reporting of 30-Day Stroke Mortality Rates in China.

PubMed

Yu, Ping; Pan, Yuesong; Wang, Yongjun; Wang, Xianwei; Liu, Liping; Ji, Ruijun; Meng, Xia; Jing, Jing; Tong, Xu; Guo, Li; Wang, Yilong

2016-01-01

A case-mix adjustment model has been developed and externally validated, demonstrating promise. However, the model has not been thoroughly tested among populations in China. In our study, we evaluated the performance of the model in Chinese patients with acute stroke. The case-mix adjustment model A includes items on age, presence of atrial fibrillation on admission, National Institutes of Health Stroke Severity Scale (NIHSS) score on admission, and stroke type. Model B is similar to Model A but includes only the consciousness component of the NIHSS score. Both model A and B were evaluated to predict 30-day mortality rates in 13,948 patients with acute stroke from the China National Stroke Registry. The discrimination of the models was quantified by c-statistic. Calibration was assessed using Pearson's correlation coefficient. The c-statistic of model A in our external validation cohort was 0.80 (95% confidence interval, 0.79-0.82), and the c-statistic of model B was 0.82 (95% confidence interval, 0.81-0.84). Excellent calibration was reported in the two models with Pearson's correlation coefficient (0.892 for model A, p<0.001; 0.927 for model B, p = 0.008). The case-mix adjustment model could be used to effectively predict 30-day mortality rates in Chinese patients with acute stroke.

Validation of the "HAMP" mapping algorithm: a tool for long-term trauma research studies in the conversion of AIS 2005 to AIS 98.

PubMed

Adams, Derk; Schreuder, Astrid B; Salottolo, Kristin; Settell, April; Goss, J Richard

2011-07-01

There are significant changes in the abbreviated injury scale (AIS) 2005 system, which make it impractical to compare patients coded in AIS version 98 with patients coded in AIS version 2005. Harborview Medical Center created a computer algorithm "Harborview AIS Mapping Program (HAMP)" to automatically convert AIS 2005 to AIS 98 injury codes. The mapping was validated using 6 months of double-coded patient injury records from a Level I Trauma Center. HAMP was used to determine how closely individual AIS and injury severity scores (ISS) were converted from AIS 2005 to AIS 98 versions. The kappa statistic was used to measure the agreement between manually determined codes and HAMP-derived codes. Seven hundred forty-nine patient records were used for validation. For the conversion of AIS codes, the measure of agreement between HAMP and manually determined codes was [kappa] = 0.84 (95% confidence interval, 0.82-0.86). The algorithm errors were smaller in magnitude than the manually determined coding errors. For the conversion of ISS, the agreement between HAMP versus manually determined ISS was [kappa] = 0.81 (95% confidence interval, 0.78-0.84). The HAMP algorithm successfully converted injuries coded in AIS 2005 to AIS 98. This algorithm will be useful when comparing trauma patient clinical data across populations coded in different versions, especially for longitudinal studies.

Initial Validation of NDVI time seriesfrom AVHRR, VEGETATION, and MODIS

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Morisette, Jeffrey T.; Pinzon, Jorge E.; Brown, Molly E.; Tucker, Jim; Justice, Christopher O.

2004-01-01

The paper will address Theme 7: Multi-sensor opportunities for VEGETATION. We present analysis of a long-term vegetation record derived from three moderate resolution sensors: AVHRR, VEGETATION, and MODIS. While empirically based manipulation can ensure agreement between the three data sets, there is a need to validate the series. This paper uses atmospherically corrected ETM+ data available over the EOS Land Validation Core Sites as an independent data set with which to compare the time series. We use ETM+ data from 15 globally distributed sites, 7 of which contain repeat coverage in time. These high-resolution data are compared to the values of each sensor by spatially aggregating the ETM+ to each specific sensors' spatial coverage. The aggregated ETM+ value provides a point estimate for a specific site on a specific date. The standard deviation of that point estimate is used to construct a confidence interval for that point estimate. The values from each moderate resolution sensor are then evaluated with respect to that confident interval. Result show that AVHRR, VEGETATION, and MODIS data can be combined to assess temporal uncertainties and address data continuity issues and that the atmospherically corrected ETM+ data provide an independent source with which to compare that record. The final product is a consistent time series climate record that links historical observations to current and future measurements.

Confidence intervals for distinguishing ordinal and disordinal interactions in multiple regression.

PubMed

Lee, Sunbok; Lei, Man-Kit; Brody, Gene H

2015-06-01

Distinguishing between ordinal and disordinal interaction in multiple regression is useful in testing many interesting theoretical hypotheses. Because the distinction is made based on the location of a crossover point of 2 simple regression lines, confidence intervals of the crossover point can be used to distinguish ordinal and disordinal interactions. This study examined 2 factors that need to be considered in constructing confidence intervals of the crossover point: (a) the assumption about the sampling distribution of the crossover point, and (b) the possibility of abnormally wide confidence intervals for the crossover point. A Monte Carlo simulation study was conducted to compare 6 different methods for constructing confidence intervals of the crossover point in terms of the coverage rate, the proportion of true values that fall to the left or right of the confidence intervals, and the average width of the confidence intervals. The methods include the reparameterization, delta, Fieller, basic bootstrap, percentile bootstrap, and bias-corrected accelerated bootstrap methods. The results of our Monte Carlo simulation study suggest that statistical inference using confidence intervals to distinguish ordinal and disordinal interaction requires sample sizes more than 500 to be able to provide sufficiently narrow confidence intervals to identify the location of the crossover point. (c) 2015 APA, all rights reserved).

Prediction Interval Development for Wind-Tunnel Balance Check-Loading

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Landman, Drew; Toro, Kenneth G.; Commo, Sean A.; Lynn, Keith C.

2014-01-01

Results from the Facility Analysis Verification and Operational Reliability project revealed a critical gap in capability in ground-based aeronautics research applications. Without a standardized process for check-loading the wind-tunnel balance or the model system, the quality of the aerodynamic force data collected varied significantly between facilities. A prediction interval is required in order to confirm a check-loading. The prediction interval provides an expected upper and lower bound on balance load prediction at a given confidence level. A method has been developed which accounts for sources of variability due to calibration and check-load application. The prediction interval method of calculation and a case study demonstrating its use is provided. Validation of the methods is demonstrated for the case study based on the probability of capture of confirmation points.

Effects of advanced life support on patients who suffered cardiac arrest outside of hospital and were defibrillated.

PubMed

Hagihara, Akihito; Onozuka, Daisuke; Nagata, Takashi; Hasegawa, Manabu

2018-01-01

The effects and relative benefits of advanced airway management and epinephrine on patients with out-of-hospital cardiac arrest (OHCA) who were defibrillated are not well understood. This was a prospective observational study. Using data of all out-of-hospital cardiac arrest cases occurring between 2005 and 2013 in Japan, hierarchical logistic regression and conditional logistic regression along with time-dependent propensity matching were performed. Outcome measures were survival and minimal neurological impairment [cerebral performance category (CPC) 1 or 2] at 1month after the event. We analyzed 37,873 cases that met the inclusion criteria. Among propensity-matched patients, advanced airway management and/or prehospital epinephrine use was related to decreased rates of 1-month survival (adjusted odds ratio 0.88, 95% confidence interval 0.80 to 0.97) and CPC (1, 2) (adjusted odds ratio 0.56, 95% confidence interval 0.48 to 0.66). Advanced airway management was related to decreased rates of 1-month survival (adjusted odds ratio 0.89, 95% confidence interval 0.81to 0.98) and CPC (1, 2) (adjusted odds ratio 0.54, 95% confidence interval 0.46 to 0.64) in patients who did not receive epinephrine, whereas epinephrine use was not related to the outcome measures. In defibrillated patients with OHCA, advanced airway management and/or epinephrine are related to reduced long-term survival, and advanced airway management is less beneficial than epinephrine. However, the proportion of patients with OHCA who responded to an initial shock was very low in the study subjects, and the external validity of our findings might be limited. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Development and Validation of a Novel Pediatric Appendicitis Risk Calculator (pARC).

PubMed

Kharbanda, Anupam B; Vazquez-Benitez, Gabriela; Ballard, Dustin W; Vinson, David R; Chettipally, Uli K; Kene, Mamata V; Dehmer, Steven P; Bachur, Richard G; Dayan, Peter S; Kuppermann, Nathan; O'Connor, Patrick J; Kharbanda, Elyse O

2018-04-01

We sought to develop and validate a clinical calculator that can be used to quantify risk for appendicitis on a continuous scale for patients with acute abdominal pain. The pediatric appendicitis risk calculator (pARC) was developed and validated through secondary analyses of 3 distinct cohorts. The derivation sample included visits to 9 pediatric emergency departments between March 2009 and April 2010. The validation sample included visits to a single pediatric emergency department from 2003 to 2004 and 2013 to 2015. Variables evaluated were as follows: age, sex, temperature, nausea and/or vomiting, pain duration, pain location, pain with walking, pain migration, guarding, white blood cell count, and absolute neutrophil count. We used stepwise regression to develop and select the best model. Test performance of the pARC was compared with the Pediatric Appendicitis Score (PAS). The derivation sample included 2423 children, 40% of whom had appendicitis. The validation sample included 1426 children, 35% of whom had appendicitis. The final pARC model included the following variables: sex, age, duration of pain, guarding, pain migration, maximal tenderness in the right-lower quadrant, and absolute neutrophil count. In the validation sample, the pARC exhibited near perfect calibration and a high degree of discrimination (area under the curve: 0.85; 95% confidence interval: 0.83 to 0.87) and outperformed the PAS (area under the curve: 0.77; 95% confidence interval: 0.75 to 0.80). By using the pARC, almost half of patients in the validation cohort could be accurately classified as at <15% risk or ≥85% risk for appendicitis, whereas only 23% would be identified as having a comparable PAS of <3 or >8. In our validation cohort of patients with acute abdominal pain, the pARC accurately quantified risk for appendicitis. Copyright © 2018 by the American Academy of Pediatrics.

Introduction to Sample Size Choice for Confidence Intervals Based on "t" Statistics

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Liu, Xiaofeng Steven; Loudermilk, Brandon; Simpson, Thomas

2014-01-01

Sample size can be chosen to achieve a specified width in a confidence interval. The probability of obtaining a narrow width given that the confidence interval includes the population parameter is defined as the power of the confidence interval, a concept unfamiliar to many practitioners. This article shows how to utilize the Statistical Analysis…

An Introduction to Confidence Intervals for Both Statistical Estimates and Effect Sizes.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Capraro, Mary Margaret

This paper summarizes methods of estimating confidence intervals, including classical intervals and intervals for effect sizes. The recent American Psychological Association (APA) Task Force on Statistical Inference report suggested that confidence intervals should always be reported, and the fifth edition of the APA "Publication Manual"…

SLDAssay: A software package and web tool for analyzing limiting dilution assays.

PubMed

Trumble, Ilana M; Allmon, Andrew G; Archin, Nancie M; Rigdon, Joseph; Francis, Owen; Baldoni, Pedro L; Hudgens, Michael G

2017-11-01

Serial limiting dilution (SLD) assays are used in many areas of infectious disease related research. This paper presents SLDAssay, a free and publicly available R software package and web tool for analyzing data from SLD assays. SLDAssay computes the maximum likelihood estimate (MLE) for the concentration of target cells, with corresponding exact and asymptotic confidence intervals. Exact and asymptotic goodness of fit p-values, and a bias-corrected (BC) MLE are also provided. No other publicly available software currently implements the BC MLE or the exact methods. For validation of SLDAssay, results from Myers et al. (1994) are replicated. Simulations demonstrate the BC MLE is less biased than the MLE. Additionally, simulations demonstrate that exact methods tend to give better confidence interval coverage and goodness-of-fit tests with lower type I error than the asymptotic methods. Additional advantages of using exact methods are also discussed. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Accounting for dropout bias using mixed-effects models.

PubMed

Mallinckrodt, C H; Clark, W S; David, S R

2001-01-01

Treatment effects are often evaluated by comparing change over time in outcome measures. However, valid analyses of longitudinal data can be problematic when subjects discontinue (dropout) prior to completing the study. This study assessed the merits of likelihood-based repeated measures analyses (MMRM) compared with fixed-effects analysis of variance where missing values were imputed using the last observation carried forward approach (LOCF) in accounting for dropout bias. Comparisons were made in simulated data and in data from a randomized clinical trial. Subject dropout was introduced in the simulated data to generate ignorable and nonignorable missingness. Estimates of treatment group differences in mean change from baseline to endpoint from MMRM were, on average, markedly closer to the true value than estimates from LOCF in every scenario simulated. Standard errors and confidence intervals from MMRM accurately reflected the uncertainty of the estimates, whereas standard errors and confidence intervals from LOCF underestimated uncertainty.

Evaluation of confidence intervals for a steady-state leaky aquifer model

USGS Publications Warehouse

Christensen, S.; Cooley, R.L.

1999-01-01

The fact that dependent variables of groundwater models are generally nonlinear functions of model parameters is shown to be a potentially significant factor in calculating accurate confidence intervals for both model parameters and functions of the parameters, such as the values of dependent variables calculated by the model. The Lagrangian method of Vecchia and Cooley [Vecchia, A.V. and Cooley, R.L., Water Resources Research, 1987, 23(7), 1237-1250] was used to calculate nonlinear Scheffe-type confidence intervals for the parameters and the simulated heads of a steady-state groundwater flow model covering 450 km2 of a leaky aquifer. The nonlinear confidence intervals are compared to corresponding linear intervals. As suggested by the significant nonlinearity of the regression model, linear confidence intervals are often not accurate. The commonly made assumption that widths of linear confidence intervals always underestimate the actual (nonlinear) widths was not correct. Results show that nonlinear effects can cause the nonlinear intervals to be asymmetric and either larger or smaller than the linear approximations. Prior information on transmissivities helps reduce the size of the confidence intervals, with the most notable effects occurring for the parameters on which there is prior information and for head values in parameter zones for which there is prior information on the parameters.The fact that dependent variables of groundwater models are generally nonlinear functions of model parameters is shown to be a potentially significant factor in calculating accurate confidence intervals for both model parameters and functions of the parameters, such as the values of dependent variables calculated by the model. The Lagrangian method of Vecchia and Cooley was used to calculate nonlinear Scheffe-type confidence intervals for the parameters and the simulated heads of a steady-state groundwater flow model covering 450 km2 of a leaky aquifer. The nonlinear confidence intervals are compared to corresponding linear intervals. As suggested by the significant nonlinearity of the regression model, linear confidence intervals are often not accurate. The commonly made assumption that widths of linear confidence intervals always underestimate the actual (nonlinear) widths was not correct. Results show that nonlinear effects can cause the nonlinear intervals to be asymmetric and either larger or smaller than the linear approximations. Prior information on transmissivities helps reduce the size of the confidence intervals, with the most notable effects occurring for the parameters on which there is prior information and for head values in parameter zones for which there is prior information on the parameters.

Sample size planning for composite reliability coefficients: accuracy in parameter estimation via narrow confidence intervals.

PubMed

Terry, Leann; Kelley, Ken

2012-11-01

Composite measures play an important role in psychology and related disciplines. Composite measures almost always have error. Correspondingly, it is important to understand the reliability of the scores from any particular composite measure. However, the point estimates of the reliability of composite measures are fallible and thus all such point estimates should be accompanied by a confidence interval. When confidence intervals are wide, there is much uncertainty in the population value of the reliability coefficient. Given the importance of reporting confidence intervals for estimates of reliability, coupled with the undesirability of wide confidence intervals, we develop methods that allow researchers to plan sample size in order to obtain narrow confidence intervals for population reliability coefficients. We first discuss composite reliability coefficients and then provide a discussion on confidence interval formation for the corresponding population value. Using the accuracy in parameter estimation approach, we develop two methods to obtain accurate estimates of reliability by planning sample size. The first method provides a way to plan sample size so that the expected confidence interval width for the population reliability coefficient is sufficiently narrow. The second method ensures that the confidence interval width will be sufficiently narrow with some desired degree of assurance (e.g., 99% assurance that the 95% confidence interval for the population reliability coefficient will be less than W units wide). The effectiveness of our methods was verified with Monte Carlo simulation studies. We demonstrate how to easily implement the methods with easy-to-use and freely available software. ©2011 The British Psychological Society.

Validating the TeleStroke Mimic Score: A Prediction Rule for Identifying Stroke Mimics Evaluated Over Telestroke Networks.

PubMed

Ali, Syed F; Hubert, Gordian J; Switzer, Jeffrey A; Majersik, Jennifer J; Backhaus, Roland; Shepard, L Wylie; Vedala, Kishore; Schwamm, Lee H

2018-03-01

Up to 30% of acute stroke evaluations are deemed stroke mimics, and these are common in telestroke as well. We recently published a risk prediction score for use during telestroke encounters to differentiate stroke mimics from ischemic cerebrovascular disease derived and validated in the Partners TeleStroke Network. Using data from 3 distinct US and European telestroke networks, we sought to externally validate the TeleStroke Mimic (TM) score in a broader population. We evaluated the TM score in 1930 telestroke consults from the University of Utah, Georgia Regents University, and the German TeleMedical Project for Integrative Stroke Care Network. We report the area under the curve in receiver-operating characteristic curve analysis with 95% confidence interval for our previously derived TM score in which lower TM scores correspond with a higher likelihood of being a stroke mimic. Based on final diagnosis at the end of the telestroke consultation, there were 630 of 1930 (32.6%) stroke mimics in the external validation cohort. All 6 variables included in the score were significantly different between patients with ischemic cerebrovascular disease versus stroke mimics. The TM score performed well (area under curve, 0.72; 95% confidence interval, 0.70-0.73; P <0.001), similar to our prior external validation in the Partners National Telestroke Network. The TM score's ability to predict the presence of a stroke mimic during telestroke consultation in these diverse cohorts was similar to its performance in our original cohort. Predictive decision-support tools like the TM score may help highlight key clinical differences between mimics and patients with stroke during complex, time-critical telestroke evaluations. © 2018 American Heart Association, Inc.

Validation of the "Pain Block" concrete ordinal scale for children aged 4 to 7 years.

PubMed

Jung, Jin Hee; Lee, Jin Hee; Kim, Do Kyun; Jung, Jae Yun; Chang, Ikwan; Kwon, Hyuksool; Shin, Jonghwan; Paek, So Hyun; Oh, Sohee; Kwak, Young Ho

2018-04-01

Pain scales using faces are commonly used tools for assessing pain in children capable of communicating. However, some children require other types of pain scales because they have difficulties in understanding faces pain scales. The goal of this study was to develop and validate the "Pain Block" concrete ordinal scale for 4- to 7-year-old children. This was a multicenter prospective observational study in the emergency department. Psychometric properties (convergent validity, discriminative validity, responsivity, and reliability) were compared between the "Pain Block" pain scale and the Faces Pain Scale-Revised (FPS-R) to assess the validity of the "Pain Block" scale. A total of 163 children (mean age, 5.5 years) were included in this study. The correlation coefficient between the FPS-R and the Pain Block scale was 0.82 for all participants which increased with age. Agreement between the 2 pain scales was acceptable, with 95.0% of the values within the predetermined limit. The differences in mean scores between the painful group and nonpainful group were 3.3 (95% confidence interval, 2.6-4.1) and 3.8 (95% confidence interval, 3.1-4.6) for FPR-S and Pain Block, respectively. The pain scores for both pain scales were significantly decreased when analgesics or pain-relieving procedures were administered (difference in Pain Block, 2.4 [1.4-3.3]; and difference in FPS-R, 2.3 [1.3-3.3]). The Pain Block pain scale could be used to assess pain in 4- to 7-year-old children capable of understanding and counting up to the number 5, even if they do not understand the FPS-R pain scale.

Estimation of hand hygiene opportunities on an adult medical ward using 24-hour camera surveillance: validation of the HOW2 Benchmark Study.

PubMed

Diller, Thomas; Kelly, J William; Blackhurst, Dawn; Steed, Connie; Boeker, Sue; McElveen, Danielle C

2014-06-01

We previously published a formula to estimate the number of hand hygiene opportunities (HHOs) per patient-day using the World Health Organization's "Five Moments for Hand Hygiene" methodology (HOW2 Benchmark Study). HHOs can be used as a denominator for calculating hand hygiene compliance rates when product utilization data are available. This study validates the previously derived HHO estimate using 24-hour video surveillance of health care worker hand hygiene activity. The validation study utilized 24-hour video surveillance recordings of 26 patients' hospital stays to measure the actual number of HHOs per patient-day on a medicine ward in a large teaching hospital. Statistical methods were used to compare these results to those obtained by episodic observation of patient activity in the original derivation study. Total hours of data collection were 81.3 and 1,510.8, resulting in 1,740 and 4,522 HHOs in the derivation and validation studies, respectively. Comparisons of the mean and median HHOs per 24-hour period did not differ significantly. HHOs were 71.6 (95% confidence interval: 64.9-78.3) and 73.9 (95% confidence interval: 69.1-84.1), respectively. This study validates the HOW2 Benchmark Study and confirms that expected numbers of HHOs can be estimated from the unit's patient census and patient-to-nurse ratio. These data can be used as denominators in calculations of hand hygiene compliance rates from electronic monitoring using the "Five Moments for Hand Hygiene" methodology. Copyright © 2014 Association for Professionals in Infection Control and Epidemiology, Inc. Published by Mosby, Inc. All rights reserved.

External validation and clinical utility of a prediction model for 6-month mortality in patients undergoing hemodialysis for end-stage kidney disease.

PubMed

Forzley, Brian; Er, Lee; Chiu, Helen Hl; Djurdjev, Ognjenka; Martinusen, Dan; Carson, Rachel C; Hargrove, Gaylene; Levin, Adeera; Karim, Mohamud

2018-02-01

End-stage kidney disease is associated with poor prognosis. Health care professionals must be prepared to address end-of-life issues and identify those at high risk for dying. A 6-month mortality prediction model for patients on dialysis derived in the United States is used but has not been externally validated. We aimed to assess the external validity and clinical utility in an independent cohort in Canada. We examined the performance of the published 6-month mortality prediction model, using discrimination, calibration, and decision curve analyses. Data were derived from a cohort of 374 prevalent dialysis patients in two regions of British Columbia, Canada, which included serum albumin, age, peripheral vascular disease, dementia, and answers to the "the surprise question" ("Would I be surprised if this patient died within the next year?"). The observed mortality in the validation cohort was 11.5% at 6 months. The prediction model had reasonable discrimination (c-stat = 0.70) but poor calibration (calibration-in-the-large = -0.53 (95% confidence interval: -0.88, -0.18); calibration slope = 0.57 (95% confidence interval: 0.31, 0.83)) in our data. Decision curve analysis showed the model only has added value in guiding clinical decision in a small range of threshold probabilities: 8%-20%. Despite reasonable discrimination, the prediction model has poor calibration in this external study cohort; thus, it may have limited clinical utility in settings outside of where it was derived. Decision curve analysis clarifies limitations in clinical utility not apparent by receiver operating characteristic curve analysis. This study highlights the importance of external validation of prediction models prior to routine use in clinical practice.

Analysis of Test-Retest Reliability, Construct Validity, and Internal Consistency of the Brazilian Version of the Pelvic Girdle Questionnaire.

PubMed

Simões, Luan; Teixeira-Salmela, Luci Fuscaldi; Magalhães, Lívia; Stuge, Britt; Laurentino, Glória; Wanderley, Elaine; Barros, Raphaela; Lemos, Andrea

2018-04-24

The purpose of this study was to evaluate test-retest reliability, construct validity, and internal consistency of the Brazilian version of the Pelvic Girdle Questionnaire (PGQ-Brazil). Analysis of the measurement properties was carried out in 4 steps. Step 1 was the pilot study, on which basis 4 hypotheses were formulated. These hypotheses were tested during the next step (construct validity, step 2) by completion of the questionnaire by the 2 groups (in pain [n = 105] and not in pain [n = 52]). For implementation of the PGQ-Brazil in the group with pain, we calculated the internal consistency (step 3) and, 7 days later, test-retest reliability (step 4) by re-application of the instrument in this group. First, the PGQ-Brazil was able to discriminate between these groups (construct validity). Second, test-retest reliability (intraclass correlation coefficients for Activities subscale [0.97 with 95% confidence interval of 0.95-0.98] and Symptoms subscale [0.98 with 95% confidence interval of 0.97-0.98] and κ coefficient between 0.50 and 0.89 for the items) was found to be good; the Bland-Altman test indicated satisfactory agreement. The Rasch analysis indicated good internal consistency, and the instrument's ability to divide the participants into at least 3 levels of skills was confirmed. In contrast, a ceiling effect was observed, as 24% of pregnant women exhibited skills superior to what the PGQ-Brazil could evaluate. The PGQ-Brazil had good internal consistency, test-retest reliability, and construct validity in assessment of limitations in activities and symptoms of pregnant women with pelvic girdle pain. Copyright © 2018. Published by Elsevier Inc.

Confidence intervals for the between-study variance in random-effects meta-analysis using generalised heterogeneity statistics: should we use unequal tails?

PubMed

Jackson, Dan; Bowden, Jack

2016-09-07

Confidence intervals for the between study variance are useful in random-effects meta-analyses because they quantify the uncertainty in the corresponding point estimates. Methods for calculating these confidence intervals have been developed that are based on inverting hypothesis tests using generalised heterogeneity statistics. Whilst, under the random effects model, these new methods furnish confidence intervals with the correct coverage, the resulting intervals are usually very wide, making them uninformative. We discuss a simple strategy for obtaining 95 % confidence intervals for the between-study variance with a markedly reduced width, whilst retaining the nominal coverage probability. Specifically, we consider the possibility of using methods based on generalised heterogeneity statistics with unequal tail probabilities, where the tail probability used to compute the upper bound is greater than 2.5 %. This idea is assessed using four real examples and a variety of simulation studies. Supporting analytical results are also obtained. Our results provide evidence that using unequal tail probabilities can result in shorter 95 % confidence intervals for the between-study variance. We also show some further results for a real example that illustrates how shorter confidence intervals for the between-study variance can be useful when performing sensitivity analyses for the average effect, which is usually the parameter of primary interest. We conclude that using unequal tail probabilities when computing 95 % confidence intervals for the between-study variance, when using methods based on generalised heterogeneity statistics, can result in shorter confidence intervals. We suggest that those who find the case for using unequal tail probabilities convincing should use the '1-4 % split', where greater tail probability is allocated to the upper confidence bound. The 'width-optimal' interval that we present deserves further investigation.

Improved confidence intervals when the sample is counted an integer times longer than the blank.

PubMed

Potter, William Edward; Strzelczyk, Jadwiga Jodi

2011-05-01

Past computer solutions for confidence intervals in paired counting are extended to the case where the ratio of the sample count time to the blank count time is taken to be an integer, IRR. Previously, confidence intervals have been named Neyman-Pearson confidence intervals; more correctly they should have been named Neyman confidence intervals or simply confidence intervals. The technique utilized mimics a technique used by Pearson and Hartley to tabulate confidence intervals for the expected value of the discrete Poisson and Binomial distributions. The blank count and the contribution of the sample to the gross count are assumed to be Poisson distributed. The expected value of the blank count, in the sample count time, is assumed known. The net count, OC, is taken to be the gross count minus the product of IRR with the blank count. The probability density function (PDF) for the net count can be determined in a straightforward manner.

Performance of the European System for Cardiac Operative Risk Evaluation II: a meta-analysis of 22 studies involving 145,592 cardiac surgery procedures.

PubMed

Guida, Pietro; Mastro, Florinda; Scrascia, Giuseppe; Whitlock, Richard; Paparella, Domenico

2014-12-01

A systematic review of the European System for Cardiac Operative Risk Evaluation (euroSCORE) II performance for prediction of operative mortality after cardiac surgery has not been performed. We conducted a meta-analysis of studies based on the predictive accuracy of the euroSCORE II. We searched the Embase and PubMed databases for all English-only articles reporting performance characteristics of the euroSCORE II. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve, the observed/expected mortality ratio, and observed-expected mortality difference with their 95% confidence intervals were analyzed. Twenty-two articles were selected, including 145,592 procedures. Operative mortality occurred in 4293 (2.95%), whereas the expected events according to euroSCORE II were 4802 (3.30%). Meta-analysis of these studies provided an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve of 0.792 (95% confidence interval, 0.773-0.811), an estimated observed/expected ratio of 1.019 (95% confidence interval, 0.899-1.139), and observed-expected difference of 0.125 (95% confidence interval, -0.269 to 0.519). Statistical heterogeneity was detected among retrospective studies including less recent procedures. Subgroups analysis confirmed the robustness of combined estimates for isolated valve procedures and those combined with revascularization surgery. A significant overestimation of the euroSCORE II with an observed/expected ratio of 0.829 (95% confidence interval, 0.677-0.982) was observed in isolated coronary artery bypass grafting and a slight underestimation of predictions in high-risk patients (observed/expected ratio 1.253 and observed-expected difference 1.859). Despite the heterogeneity, the results from this meta-analysis show a good overall performance of the euroSCORE II in terms of discrimination and accuracy of model predictions for operative mortality. Validation of the euroSCORE II in prospective populations needs to be further studied for a continuous improvement of patients' risk stratification before cardiac surgery. Copyright © 2014 The American Association for Thoracic Surgery. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Exact Scheffé-type confidence intervals for output from groundwater flow models: 2. Combined use of hydrogeologic information and calibration data

USGS Publications Warehouse

Cooley, Richard L.

1993-01-01

Calibration data (observed values corresponding to model-computed values of dependent variables) are incorporated into a general method of computing exact Scheffé-type confidence intervals analogous to the confidence intervals developed in part 1 (Cooley, this issue) for a function of parameters derived from a groundwater flow model. Parameter uncertainty is specified by a distribution of parameters conditioned on the calibration data. This distribution was obtained as a posterior distribution by applying Bayes' theorem to the hydrogeologically derived prior distribution of parameters from part 1 and a distribution of differences between the calibration data and corresponding model-computed dependent variables. Tests show that the new confidence intervals can be much smaller than the intervals of part 1 because the prior parameter variance-covariance structure is altered so that combinations of parameters that give poor model fit to the data are unlikely. The confidence intervals of part 1 and the new confidence intervals can be effectively employed in a sequential method of model construction whereby new information is used to reduce confidence interval widths at each stage.

Multiple Versus Single Set Validation of Multivariate Models to Avoid Mistakes.

PubMed

Harrington, Peter de Boves

2018-01-02

Validation of multivariate models is of current importance for a wide range of chemical applications. Although important, it is neglected. The common practice is to use a single external validation set for evaluation. This approach is deficient and may mislead investigators with results that are specific to the single validation set of data. In addition, no statistics are available regarding the precision of a derived figure of merit (FOM). A statistical approach using bootstrapped Latin partitions is advocated. This validation method makes an efficient use of the data because each object is used once for validation. It was reviewed a decade earlier but primarily for the optimization of chemometric models this review presents the reasons it should be used for generalized statistical validation. Average FOMs with confidence intervals are reported and powerful, matched-sample statistics may be applied for comparing models and methods. Examples demonstrate the problems with single validation sets.

Discovery and Validation of Biomarkers to Guide Clinical Management of Pneumonia in African Children

PubMed Central

Huang, Honglei; Ideh, Readon C.; Gitau, Evelyn; Thézénas, Marie L.; Jallow, Muminatou; Ebruke, Bernard; Chimah, Osaretin; Oluwalana, Claire; Karanja, Henri; Mackenzie, Grant; Adegbola, Richard A.; Kwiatkowski, Dominic; Kessler, Benedikt M.; Berkley, James A.; Howie, Stephen R. C.; Casals-Pascual, Climent

2014-01-01

Background. Pneumonia is the leading cause of death in children globally. Clinical algorithms remain suboptimal for distinguishing severe pneumonia from other causes of respiratory distress such as malaria or distinguishing bacterial pneumonia and pneumonia from others causes, such as viruses. Molecular tools could improve diagnosis and management. Methods. We conducted a mass spectrometry–based proteomic study to identify and validate markers of severity in 390 Gambian children with pneumonia (n = 204) and age-, sex-, and neighborhood-matched controls (n = 186). Independent validation was conducted in 293 Kenyan children with respiratory distress (238 with pneumonia, 41 with Plasmodium falciparum malaria, and 14 with both). Predictive value was estimated by the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC). Results. Lipocalin 2 (Lpc-2) was the best protein biomarker of severe pneumonia (AUC, 0.71 [95% confidence interval, .64–.79]) and highly predictive of bacteremia (78% [64%–92%]), pneumococcal bacteremia (84% [71%–98%]), and “probable bacterial etiology” (91% [84%–98%]). These results were validated in Kenyan children with severe malaria and respiratory distress who also met the World Health Organization definition of pneumonia. The combination of Lpc-2 and haptoglobin distinguished bacterial versus malaria origin of respiratory distress with high sensitivity and specificity in Gambian children (AUC, 99% [95% confidence interval, 99%–100%]) and Kenyan children (82% [74%–91%]). Conclusions. Lpc-2 and haptoglobin can help discriminate the etiology of clinically defined pneumonia and could be used to improve clinical management. These biomarkers should be further evaluated in prospective clinical studies. PMID:24696240

Pediatric trauma BIG score: predicting mortality in children after military and civilian trauma.

PubMed

Borgman, Matthew A; Maegele, Marc; Wade, Charles E; Blackbourne, Lorne H; Spinella, Philip C

2011-04-01

To develop a validated mortality prediction score for children with traumatic injuries. We identified all children (<18 years of age) in the US military established Joint Theater Trauma Registry from 2002 to 2009 who were admitted to combat-support hospitals with traumatic injuries in Iraq and Afghanistan. We identified factors associated with mortality using univariate and then multivariate regression modeling. The developed mortality prediction score was then validated on a data set of pediatric patients (≤ 18 years of age) from the German Trauma Registry, 2002-2007. Admission base deficit, international normalized ratio, and Glasgow Coma Scale were independently associated with mortality in 707 patients from the derivation set and 1101 patients in the validation set. These variables were combined into the pediatric "BIG" score (base deficit + [2.5 × international normalized ratio] + [15 - Glasgow Coma Scale), which were each calculated to have an area under the curve of 0.89 (95% confidence interval: 0.83-0.95) and 0.89 (95% confidence interval: 0.87-0.92) on the derivation and validation sets, respectively. The pediatric trauma BIG score is a simple method that can be performed rapidly on admission to evaluate severity of illness and predict mortality in children with traumatic injuries. The score has been shown to be accurate in both penetrating-injury and blunt-injury populations and may have significant utility in comparing severity of injury in future pediatric trauma research and quality-assurance studies. In addition, this score may be used to determine inclusion criteria on admission for prospective studies when accurately estimating the mortality for sample size calculation is required.

Graphing within-subjects confidence intervals using SPSS and S-Plus.

PubMed

Wright, Daniel B

2007-02-01

Within-subjects confidence intervals are often appropriate to report and to display. Loftus and Masson (1994) have reported methods to calculate these, and their use is becoming common. In the present article, procedures for calculating within-subjects confidence intervals in SPSS and S-Plus are presented (an R version is on the accompanying Web site). The procedure in S-Plus allows the user to report the bias corrected and adjusted bootstrap confidence intervals as well as the standard confidence intervals based on traditional methods. The presented code can be easily altered to fit the individual user's needs.

Assessment of predictive performance in incomplete data by combining internal validation and multiple imputation.

PubMed

Wahl, Simone; Boulesteix, Anne-Laure; Zierer, Astrid; Thorand, Barbara; van de Wiel, Mark A

2016-10-26

Missing values are a frequent issue in human studies. In many situations, multiple imputation (MI) is an appropriate missing data handling strategy, whereby missing values are imputed multiple times, the analysis is performed in every imputed data set, and the obtained estimates are pooled. If the aim is to estimate (added) predictive performance measures, such as (change in) the area under the receiver-operating characteristic curve (AUC), internal validation strategies become desirable in order to correct for optimism. It is not fully understood how internal validation should be combined with multiple imputation. In a comprehensive simulation study and in a real data set based on blood markers as predictors for mortality, we compare three combination strategies: Val-MI, internal validation followed by MI on the training and test parts separately, MI-Val, MI on the full data set followed by internal validation, and MI(-y)-Val, MI on the full data set omitting the outcome followed by internal validation. Different validation strategies, including bootstrap und cross-validation, different (added) performance measures, and various data characteristics are considered, and the strategies are evaluated with regard to bias and mean squared error of the obtained performance estimates. In addition, we elaborate on the number of resamples and imputations to be used, and adopt a strategy for confidence interval construction to incomplete data. Internal validation is essential in order to avoid optimism, with the bootstrap 0.632+ estimate representing a reliable method to correct for optimism. While estimates obtained by MI-Val are optimistically biased, those obtained by MI(-y)-Val tend to be pessimistic in the presence of a true underlying effect. Val-MI provides largely unbiased estimates, with a slight pessimistic bias with increasing true effect size, number of covariates and decreasing sample size. In Val-MI, accuracy of the estimate is more strongly improved by increasing the number of bootstrap draws rather than the number of imputations. With a simple integrated approach, valid confidence intervals for performance estimates can be obtained. When prognostic models are developed on incomplete data, Val-MI represents a valid strategy to obtain estimates of predictive performance measures.

Blast Load Simulator Experiments for Computational Model Validation: Report 2

DTIC Science & Technology

2017-02-01

repeatability. The uncertainty in the experimental pressures and impulses was evaluated by computing 95% confidence intervals on the results. DISCLAIMER: The...Experiment uncertainty The uncertainty in the experimental pressure and impulse was evaluated for the five replicate experiments for which, as closely as...comparisons were made among the replicated experiments to evaluate repeatability. The uncertainty in the experimental pressures and impulses was

TSP Symposium 2012 Proceedings

DTIC Science & Technology

2012-11-01

and Statistical Model 78 7.3 Analysis and Results 79 7.4 Threats to Validity and Limitations 85 7.5 Conclusions 86 7.6 Acknowledgments 87 7.7...Table 12: Overall Statistics of the Experiment 32 Table 13: Results of Pairwise ANOVA Analysis, Highlighting Statistically Significant Differences...we calculated the percentage of defects injected. The distribution statistics are shown in Table 2. Table 2: Mean Lower, Upper Confidence Interval

Identification of patients at high risk for Clostridium difficile infection: development and validation of a risk prediction model in hospitalized patients treated with antibiotics.

PubMed

van Werkhoven, C H; van der Tempel, J; Jajou, R; Thijsen, S F T; Diepersloot, R J A; Bonten, M J M; Postma, D F; Oosterheert, J J

2015-08-01

To develop and validate a prediction model for Clostridium difficile infection (CDI) in hospitalized patients treated with systemic antibiotics, we performed a case-cohort study in a tertiary (derivation) and secondary care hospital (validation). Cases had a positive Clostridium test and were treated with systemic antibiotics before suspicion of CDI. Controls were randomly selected from hospitalized patients treated with systemic antibiotics. Potential predictors were selected from the literature. Logistic regression was used to derive the model. Discrimination and calibration of the model were tested in internal and external validation. A total of 180 cases and 330 controls were included for derivation. Age >65 years, recent hospitalization, CDI history, malignancy, chronic renal failure, use of immunosuppressants, receipt of antibiotics before admission, nonsurgical admission, admission to the intensive care unit, gastric tube feeding, treatment with cephalosporins and presence of an underlying infection were independent predictors of CDI. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve of the model in the derivation cohort was 0.84 (95% confidence interval 0.80-0.87), and was reduced to 0.81 after internal validation. In external validation, consisting of 97 cases and 417 controls, the model area under the curve was 0.81 (95% confidence interval 0.77-0.85) and model calibration was adequate (Brier score 0.004). A simplified risk score was derived. Using a cutoff of 7 points, the positive predictive value, sensitivity and specificity were 1.0%, 72% and 73%, respectively. In conclusion, a risk prediction model was developed and validated, with good discrimination and calibration, that can be used to target preventive interventions in patients with increased risk of CDI. Copyright © 2015 European Society of Clinical Microbiology and Infectious Diseases. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Effects of Training and Feedback on Accuracy of Predicting Rectosigmoid Neoplastic Lesions and Selection of Surveillance Intervals by Endoscopists Performing Optical Diagnosis of Diminutive Polyps.

PubMed

Vleugels, Jasper L A; Dijkgraaf, Marcel G W; Hazewinkel, Yark; Wanders, Linda K; Fockens, Paul; Dekker, Evelien

2018-05-01

Real-time differentiation of diminutive polyps (1-5 mm) during endoscopy could replace histopathology analysis. According to guidelines, implementation of optical diagnosis into routine practice would require it to identify rectosigmoid neoplastic lesions with a negative predictive value (NPV) of more than 90%, using histologic findings as a reference, and agreement with histology-based surveillance intervals for more than 90% of cases. We performed a prospective study with 39 endoscopists accredited to perform colonoscopies on participants with positive results from fecal immunochemical tests in the Bowel Cancer Screening Program at 13 centers in the Netherlands. Endoscopists were trained in optical diagnosis using a validated module (Workgroup serrAted polypS and Polyposis). After meeting predefined performance thresholds in the training program, the endoscopists started a 1-year program (continuation phase) in which they performed narrow band imaging analyses during colonoscopies of participants in the screening program and predicted histological findings with confidence levels. The endoscopists were randomly assigned to groups that received feedback or no feedback on the accuracy of their predictions. Primary outcome measures were endoscopists' abilities to identify rectosigmoid neoplastic lesions (using histology as a reference) with NPVs of 90% or more, and selecting surveillance intervals that agreed with those determined by histology for at least 90% of cases. Of 39 endoscopists initially trained, 27 (69%) completed the training program. During the continuation phase, these 27 endoscopists performed 3144 colonoscopies in which 4504 diminutive polyps were removed. The endoscopists identified neoplastic lesions with a pooled NPV of 90.8% (95% confidence interval 88.6-92.6); their proposed surveillance intervals agreed with those determined by histologic analysis for 95.4% of cases (95% confidence interval 94.0-96.6). Findings did not differ between the group that did vs did not receive feedback. Sixteen endoscopists (59%) identified rectosigmoid neoplastic lesions with NPVs greater than 90% and selected surveillance intervals in agreement with those determined from histology for more than 90% of patients. In a prospective study following a validated training module, we found that a selected group of endoscopists identified rectosigmoid neoplastic lesions with pooled NPVs greater than 90% and accurately selected surveillance intervals for more than 90% of patients over the course of 1 year. Providing regular interim feedback on the accuracy of neoplastic lesion prediction and surveillance interval selection did not lead to differences in those endpoints. Monitoring is suggested, as individual performance varied. ClinicalTrials.gov no: NCT02516748; Netherland Trial Register: NTR4635. Copyright © 2018 AGA Institute. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Myocardial perfusion magnetic resonance imaging using sliding-window conjugate-gradient highly constrained back-projection reconstruction for detection of coronary artery disease.

PubMed

Ma, Heng; Yang, Jun; Liu, Jing; Ge, Lan; An, Jing; Tang, Qing; Li, Han; Zhang, Yu; Chen, David; Wang, Yong; Liu, Jiabin; Liang, Zhigang; Lin, Kai; Jin, Lixin; Bi, Xiaoming; Li, Kuncheng; Li, Debiao

2012-04-15

Myocardial perfusion magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) with sliding-window conjugate-gradient highly constrained back-projection reconstruction (SW-CG-HYPR) allows whole left ventricular coverage, improved temporal and spatial resolution and signal/noise ratio, and reduced cardiac motion-related image artifacts. The accuracy of this technique for detecting coronary artery disease (CAD) has not been determined in a large number of patients. We prospectively evaluated the diagnostic performance of myocardial perfusion MRI with SW-CG-HYPR in patients with suspected CAD. A total of 50 consecutive patients who were scheduled for coronary angiography with suspected CAD underwent myocardial perfusion MRI with SW-CG-HYPR at 3.0 T. The perfusion defects were interpreted qualitatively by 2 blinded observers and were correlated with x-ray angiographic stenoses ≥50%. The prevalence of CAD was 56%. In the per-patient analysis, the sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value, negative predictive value, and accuracy of SW-CG-HYPR was 96% (95% confidence interval 82% to 100%), 82% (95% confidence interval 60% to 95%), 87% (95% confidence interval 70% to 96%), 95% (95% confidence interval 74% to100%), and 90% (95% confidence interval 82% to 98%), respectively. In the per-vessel analysis, the corresponding values were 98% (95% confidence interval 91% to 100%), 89% (95% confidence interval 80% to 94%), 86% (95% confidence interval 76% to 93%), 99% (95% confidence interval 93% to 100%), and 93% (95% confidence interval 89% to 97%), respectively. In conclusion, myocardial perfusion MRI using SW-CG-HYPR allows whole left ventricular coverage and high resolution and has high diagnostic accuracy in patients with suspected CAD. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Accuracy and Coverage of Diagnosis and Procedural Coding of Severely Injured Patients in the Finnish Hospital Discharge Register: Comparison to Patient Files and the Helsinki Trauma Registry.

PubMed

Heinänen, M; Brinck, T; Handolin, L; Mattila, V M; Söderlund, T

2017-09-01

The Finnish Hospital Discharge Register data are frequently used for research purposes. The Finnish Hospital Discharge Register has shown excellent validity in single injuries or disease groups, but no studies have assessed patients with multiple trauma diagnoses. We aimed to evaluate the accuracy and coverage of the Finnish Hospital Discharge Register but at the same time validate the data of the trauma registry of the Helsinki University Hospital's Trauma Unit. We assessed the accuracy and coverage of the Finnish Hospital Discharge Register data by comparing them to the original patient files and trauma registry files from the trauma registry of the Helsinki University Hospital's Trauma Unit. We identified a baseline cohort of patients with severe thorax injury from the trauma registry of the Helsinki University Hospital's Trauma Unit of 2013 (sample of 107 patients). We hypothesized that the Finnish Hospital Discharge Register would lack valuable information about these patients. Using patient files, we identified 965 trauma diagnoses in these 107 patients. From the Finnish Hospital Discharge Register, we identified 632 (65.5%) diagnoses and from the trauma registry of the Helsinki University Hospital's Trauma Unit, 924 (95.8%) diagnoses. A total of 170 (17.6%) trauma diagnoses were missing from the Finnish Hospital Discharge Register data and 41 (4.2%) from the trauma registry of the Helsinki University Hospital's Trauma Unit data. The coverage and accuracy of diagnoses in the Finnish Hospital Discharge Register were 65.5% (95% confidence interval: 62.5%-68.5%) and 73.8% (95% confidence interval: 70.4%-77.2%), respectively, and for the trauma registry of the Helsinki University Hospital's Trauma Unit, 95.8% (95% confidence interval: 94.5%-97.0%) and 97.6% (95% confidence interval: 96.7%-98.6%), respectively. According to patient records, these patients were subjects in 249 operations. We identified 40 (16.1%) missing operation codes from the Finnish Hospital Discharge Register and 19 (7.6%) from the trauma registry of the Helsinki University Hospital's Trauma Unit. The validity of the Finnish Hospital Discharge Register data is unsatisfactory in terms of the accuracy and coverage of diagnoses in patients with multiple trauma diagnoses. Procedural codes provide greater accuracy. We found the coverage and accuracy of the trauma registry of the Helsinki University Hospital's Trauma Unit to be excellent. Therefore, a special trauma registry, such as the trauma registry of the Helsinki University Hospital's Trauma Unit, provides much more accurate data and should be the preferred registry when extracting data for research or for administrative use, such as resource prioritizing.

Explorations in Statistics: Confidence Intervals

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Curran-Everett, Douglas

2009-01-01

Learning about statistics is a lot like learning about science: the learning is more meaningful if you can actively explore. This third installment of "Explorations in Statistics" investigates confidence intervals. A confidence interval is a range that we expect, with some level of confidence, to include the true value of a population parameter…

The Role of Defensive Confidence in Preference for Proattitudinal Information: How Believing That One Is Strong Can Sometimes Be a Defensive Weakness

PubMed Central

Albarracín, Dolores; Mitchell, Amy L.

2016-01-01

This series of studies identified individuals who chronically believe that they can successfully defend their attitudes from external attack and investigated the consequences of this individual difference for selective exposure to attitude-incongruent information and, ultimately, attitude change. Studies 1 and 2 validated a measure of defensive confidence as an individual difference that is unidimensional, distinct from other personality measures, reliable over a 2-week interval, and organized as a trait that generalizes across various personal and social issues. Studies 3 and 4 provided evidence that defensive confidence decreases preference for proattitudinal information, therefore inducing greater reception of counterattitudinal materials. Study 5 demonstrated that people who are high in defensive confidence are more likely to change their attitudes as a result of exposure to counterattitudinal information and examined the perceptions that mediate this important phenomenon. PMID:15536240

Using an R Shiny to Enhance the Learning Experience of Confidence Intervals

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Williams, Immanuel James; Williams, Kelley Kim

2018-01-01

Many students find understanding confidence intervals difficult, especially because of the amalgamation of concepts such as confidence levels, standard error, point estimates and sample sizes. An R Shiny application was created to assist the learning process of confidence intervals using graphics and data from the US National Basketball…

External Validation of a Case-Mix Adjustment Model for the Standardized Reporting of 30-Day Stroke Mortality Rates in China

PubMed Central

Yu, Ping; Pan, Yuesong; Wang, Yongjun; Wang, Xianwei; Liu, Liping; Ji, Ruijun; Meng, Xia; Jing, Jing; Tong, Xu; Guo, Li; Wang, Yilong

2016-01-01

Background and Purpose A case-mix adjustment model has been developed and externally validated, demonstrating promise. However, the model has not been thoroughly tested among populations in China. In our study, we evaluated the performance of the model in Chinese patients with acute stroke. Methods The case-mix adjustment model A includes items on age, presence of atrial fibrillation on admission, National Institutes of Health Stroke Severity Scale (NIHSS) score on admission, and stroke type. Model B is similar to Model A but includes only the consciousness component of the NIHSS score. Both model A and B were evaluated to predict 30-day mortality rates in 13,948 patients with acute stroke from the China National Stroke Registry. The discrimination of the models was quantified by c-statistic. Calibration was assessed using Pearson’s correlation coefficient. Results The c-statistic of model A in our external validation cohort was 0.80 (95% confidence interval, 0.79–0.82), and the c-statistic of model B was 0.82 (95% confidence interval, 0.81–0.84). Excellent calibration was reported in the two models with Pearson’s correlation coefficient (0.892 for model A, p<0.001; 0.927 for model B, p = 0.008). Conclusions The case-mix adjustment model could be used to effectively predict 30-day mortality rates in Chinese patients with acute stroke. PMID:27846282

Real-world use of the risk-need-responsivity model and the level of service/case management inventory with community-supervised offenders.

PubMed

Dyck, Heather L; Campbell, Mary Ann; Wershler, Julie L

2018-06-01

The risk-need-responsivity model (RNR; Bonta & Andrews, 2017) has become a leading approach for effective offender case management, but field tests of this model are still required. The present study first assessed the predictive validity of the RNR-informed Level of Service/Case Management Inventory (LS/CMI; Andrews, Bonta, & Wormith, 2004) with a sample of Atlantic Canadian male and female community-supervised provincial offenders (N = 136). Next, the case management plans prepared from these LS/CMI results were analyzed for adherence to the principles of risk, need, and responsivity. As expected, the LS/CMI was a strong predictor of general recidivism for both males (area under the curve = .75, 95% confidence interval [.66, .85]), and especially females (area under the curve = .94, 95% confidence interval [.84, 1.00]), over an average 3.42-year follow-up period. The LS/CMI was predictive of time to recidivism, with lower risk cases taking longer to reoffend than higher risk cases. Despite the robust predictive validity of the LS/CMI, case management plans developed by probation officers generally reflected poor adherence to the RNR principles. These findings highlight the need for better training on how to transfer risk appraisal information from valid risk tools to case plans to better meet the best-practice principles of risk, need, and responsivity for criminal behavior risk reduction. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2018 APA, all rights reserved).

Alternative Confidence Interval Methods Used in the Diagnostic Accuracy Studies

PubMed Central

Gülhan, Orekıcı Temel

2016-01-01

Background/Aim. It is necessary to decide whether the newly improved methods are better than the standard or reference test or not. To decide whether the new diagnostics test is better than the gold standard test/imperfect standard test, the differences of estimated sensitivity/specificity are calculated with the help of information obtained from samples. However, to generalize this value to the population, it should be given with the confidence intervals. The aim of this study is to evaluate the confidence interval methods developed for the differences between the two dependent sensitivity/specificity values on a clinical application. Materials and Methods. In this study, confidence interval methods like Asymptotic Intervals, Conditional Intervals, Unconditional Interval, Score Intervals, and Nonparametric Methods Based on Relative Effects Intervals are used. Besides, as clinical application, data used in diagnostics study by Dickel et al. (2010) has been taken as a sample. Results. The results belonging to the alternative confidence interval methods for Nickel Sulfate, Potassium Dichromate, and Lanolin Alcohol are given as a table. Conclusion. While preferring the confidence interval methods, the researchers have to consider whether the case to be compared is single ratio or dependent binary ratio differences, the correlation coefficient between the rates in two dependent ratios and the sample sizes. PMID:27478491

Alternative Confidence Interval Methods Used in the Diagnostic Accuracy Studies.

PubMed

Erdoğan, Semra; Gülhan, Orekıcı Temel

2016-01-01

Background/Aim. It is necessary to decide whether the newly improved methods are better than the standard or reference test or not. To decide whether the new diagnostics test is better than the gold standard test/imperfect standard test, the differences of estimated sensitivity/specificity are calculated with the help of information obtained from samples. However, to generalize this value to the population, it should be given with the confidence intervals. The aim of this study is to evaluate the confidence interval methods developed for the differences between the two dependent sensitivity/specificity values on a clinical application. Materials and Methods. In this study, confidence interval methods like Asymptotic Intervals, Conditional Intervals, Unconditional Interval, Score Intervals, and Nonparametric Methods Based on Relative Effects Intervals are used. Besides, as clinical application, data used in diagnostics study by Dickel et al. (2010) has been taken as a sample. Results. The results belonging to the alternative confidence interval methods for Nickel Sulfate, Potassium Dichromate, and Lanolin Alcohol are given as a table. Conclusion. While preferring the confidence interval methods, the researchers have to consider whether the case to be compared is single ratio or dependent binary ratio differences, the correlation coefficient between the rates in two dependent ratios and the sample sizes.

Publication Bias in Meta-Analysis: Confidence Intervals for Rosenthal's Fail-Safe Number.

PubMed

Fragkos, Konstantinos C; Tsagris, Michail; Frangos, Christos C

2014-01-01

The purpose of the present paper is to assess the efficacy of confidence intervals for Rosenthal's fail-safe number. Although Rosenthal's estimator is highly used by researchers, its statistical properties are largely unexplored. First of all, we developed statistical theory which allowed us to produce confidence intervals for Rosenthal's fail-safe number. This was produced by discerning whether the number of studies analysed in a meta-analysis is fixed or random. Each case produces different variance estimators. For a given number of studies and a given distribution, we provided five variance estimators. Confidence intervals are examined with a normal approximation and a nonparametric bootstrap. The accuracy of the different confidence interval estimates was then tested by methods of simulation under different distributional assumptions. The half normal distribution variance estimator has the best probability coverage. Finally, we provide a table of lower confidence intervals for Rosenthal's estimator.

Publication Bias in Meta-Analysis: Confidence Intervals for Rosenthal's Fail-Safe Number

PubMed Central

Fragkos, Konstantinos C.; Tsagris, Michail; Frangos, Christos C.

2014-01-01

The purpose of the present paper is to assess the efficacy of confidence intervals for Rosenthal's fail-safe number. Although Rosenthal's estimator is highly used by researchers, its statistical properties are largely unexplored. First of all, we developed statistical theory which allowed us to produce confidence intervals for Rosenthal's fail-safe number. This was produced by discerning whether the number of studies analysed in a meta-analysis is fixed or random. Each case produces different variance estimators. For a given number of studies and a given distribution, we provided five variance estimators. Confidence intervals are examined with a normal approximation and a nonparametric bootstrap. The accuracy of the different confidence interval estimates was then tested by methods of simulation under different distributional assumptions. The half normal distribution variance estimator has the best probability coverage. Finally, we provide a table of lower confidence intervals for Rosenthal's estimator. PMID:27437470

Trends and racial and ethnic disparities in the prevalence of pregestational type 1 and type 2 diabetes in Northern California: 1996-2014.

PubMed

Peng, Tiffany Y; Ehrlich, Samantha F; Crites, Yvonne; Kitzmiller, John L; Kuzniewicz, Michael W; Hedderson, Monique M; Ferrara, Assiamira

2017-02-01

Despite concern for adverse perinatal outcomes in women with diabetes mellitus before pregnancy, recent data on the prevalence of pregestational type 1 and type 2 diabetes mellitus in the United States are lacking. The purpose of this study was to estimate changes in the prevalence of overall pregestational diabetes mellitus (all types) and pregestational type 1 and type 2 diabetes mellitus and to estimate whether changes varied by race-ethnicity from 1996-2014. We conducted a cohort study among 655,428 pregnancies at a Northern California integrated health delivery system from 1996-2014. Logistic regression analyses provided estimates of prevalence and trends. The age-adjusted prevalence (per 100 deliveries) of overall pregestational diabetes mellitus increased from 1996-1999 to 2012-2014 (from 0.58 [95% confidence interval, 0.54-0.63] to 1.06 [95% confidence interval, 1.00-1.12]; P trend <.0001). Significant increases occurred in all racial-ethnic groups; the largest relative increase was among Hispanic women (121.8% [95% confidence interval, 84.4-166.7]); the smallest relative increase was among non-Hispanic white women (49.6% [95% confidence interval, 27.5-75.4]). The age-adjusted prevalence of pregestational type 1 and type 2 diabetes mellitus increased from 0.14 (95% confidence interval, 0.12-0.16) to 0.23 (95% confidence interval, 0.21-0.27; P trend <.0001) and from 0.42 (95% confidence interval, 0.38-0.46) to 0.78 (95% confidence interval, 0.73-0.83; P trend <.0001), respectively. The greatest relative increase in the prevalence of type 1 diabetes mellitus was in non-Hispanic white women (118.4% [95% confidence interval, 70.0-180.5]), who had the lowest increases in the prevalence of type 2 diabetes mellitus (13.6% [95% confidence interval, -8.0 to 40.1]). The greatest relative increase in the prevalence of type 2 diabetes mellitus was in Hispanic women (125.2% [95% confidence interval, 84.8-174.4]), followed by African American women (102.0% [95% confidence interval, 38.3-194.3]) and Asian women (93.3% [95% confidence interval, 48.9-150.9]). The prevalence of overall pregestational diabetes mellitus and pregestational type 1 and type 2 diabetes mellitus increased from 1996-1999 to 2012-2014 and racial-ethnic disparities were observed, possibly because of differing prevalence of maternal obesity. Targeted prevention efforts, preconception care, and disease management strategies are needed to reduce the burden of diabetes mellitus and its sequelae. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Interval estimation and optimal design for the within-subject coefficient of variation for continuous and binary variables

PubMed Central

Shoukri, Mohamed M; Elkum, Nasser; Walter, Stephen D

2006-01-01

Background In this paper we propose the use of the within-subject coefficient of variation as an index of a measurement's reliability. For continuous variables and based on its maximum likelihood estimation we derive a variance-stabilizing transformation and discuss confidence interval construction within the framework of a one-way random effects model. We investigate sample size requirements for the within-subject coefficient of variation for continuous and binary variables. Methods We investigate the validity of the approximate normal confidence interval by Monte Carlo simulations. In designing a reliability study, a crucial issue is the balance between the number of subjects to be recruited and the number of repeated measurements per subject. We discuss efficiency of estimation and cost considerations for the optimal allocation of the sample resources. The approach is illustrated by an example on Magnetic Resonance Imaging (MRI). We also discuss the issue of sample size estimation for dichotomous responses with two examples. Results For the continuous variable we found that the variance stabilizing transformation improves the asymptotic coverage probabilities on the within-subject coefficient of variation for the continuous variable. The maximum like estimation and sample size estimation based on pre-specified width of confidence interval are novel contribution to the literature for the binary variable. Conclusion Using the sample size formulas, we hope to help clinical epidemiologists and practicing statisticians to efficiently design reliability studies using the within-subject coefficient of variation, whether the variable of interest is continuous or binary. PMID:16686943

Generation and Validation of Spatial Distribution of Hourly Wind Speed Time-Series using Machine Learning

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Veronesi, F.; Grassi, S.

2016-09-01

Wind resource assessment is a key aspect of wind farm planning since it allows to estimate the long term electricity production. Moreover, wind speed time-series at high resolution are helpful to estimate the temporal changes of the electricity generation and indispensable to design stand-alone systems, which are affected by the mismatch of supply and demand. In this work, we present a new generalized statistical methodology to generate the spatial distribution of wind speed time-series, using Switzerland as a case study. This research is based upon a machine learning model and demonstrates that statistical wind resource assessment can successfully be used for estimating wind speed time-series. In fact, this method is able to obtain reliable wind speed estimates and propagate all the sources of uncertainty (from the measurements to the mapping process) in an efficient way, i.e. minimizing computational time and load. This allows not only an accurate estimation, but the creation of precise confidence intervals to map the stochasticity of the wind resource for a particular site. The validation shows that machine learning can minimize the bias of the wind speed hourly estimates. Moreover, for each mapped location this method delivers not only the mean wind speed, but also its confidence interval, which are crucial data for planners.

Effect of playing tactics on achieving score-box possessions in a random series of team possessions from Norwegian professional soccer matches.

PubMed

Tenga, Albin; Holme, Ingar; Ronglan, Lars Tore; Bahr, Roald

2010-02-01

Methods of analysis that include an assessment of opponent interactions are thought to provide a more valid means of team match performance. The purpose of this study was to examine the effect of playing tactics on achieving score-box possession by assessing opponent interactions in Norwegian elite soccer matches. We analysed a random series of 1703 team possessions from 163 of 182 (90%) matches played in the professional men's league during the 2004 season. Multidimensional qualitative data obtained from ten ordered categorical variables were used. Offensive tactics were more effective in producing score-box possessions when playing against an imbalanced defence (28.5%) than against a balanced defence (6.5%) (P < 0.001). Multiple logistic regression found that, for the main variable "team possession type", counterattacks were more effective than elaborate attacks when playing against an imbalanced defence (odds ratio: 2.69; 95% confidence interval: 1.64 to 4.43) but not against a balanced defence (odds ratio: 1.14; 95% confidence interval: 0.47 to 2.76). Assessment of opponent interactions is critical to evaluate the effectiveness of offensive playing tactics on producing score-box possessions, and improves the validity of team match-performance analysis in soccer.

More accurate, calibrated bootstrap confidence intervals for correlating two autocorrelated climate time series

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Olafsdottir, Kristin B.; Mudelsee, Manfred

2013-04-01

Estimation of the Pearson's correlation coefficient between two time series to evaluate the influences of one time depended variable on another is one of the most often used statistical method in climate sciences. Various methods are used to estimate confidence interval to support the correlation point estimate. Many of them make strong mathematical assumptions regarding distributional shape and serial correlation, which are rarely met. More robust statistical methods are needed to increase the accuracy of the confidence intervals. Bootstrap confidence intervals are estimated in the Fortran 90 program PearsonT (Mudelsee, 2003), where the main intention was to get an accurate confidence interval for correlation coefficient between two time series by taking the serial dependence of the process that generated the data into account. However, Monte Carlo experiments show that the coverage accuracy for smaller data sizes can be improved. Here we adapt the PearsonT program into a new version called PearsonT3, by calibrating the confidence interval to increase the coverage accuracy. Calibration is a bootstrap resampling technique, which basically performs a second bootstrap loop or resamples from the bootstrap resamples. It offers, like the non-calibrated bootstrap confidence intervals, robustness against the data distribution. Pairwise moving block bootstrap is used to preserve the serial correlation of both time series. The calibration is applied to standard error based bootstrap Student's t confidence intervals. The performances of the calibrated confidence intervals are examined with Monte Carlo simulations, and compared with the performances of confidence intervals without calibration, that is, PearsonT. The coverage accuracy is evidently better for the calibrated confidence intervals where the coverage error is acceptably small (i.e., within a few percentage points) already for data sizes as small as 20. One form of climate time series is output from numerical models which simulate the climate system. The method is applied to model data from the high resolution ocean model, INALT01 where the relationship between the Agulhas Leakage and the North Brazil Current is evaluated. Preliminary results show significant correlation between the two variables when there is 10 year lag between them, which is more or less the time that takes the Agulhas Leakage water to reach the North Brazil Current. Mudelsee, M., 2003. Estimating Pearson's correlation coefficient with bootstrap confidence interval from serially dependent time series. Mathematical Geology 35, 651-665.

The P Value Problem in Otolaryngology: Shifting to Effect Sizes and Confidence Intervals.

PubMed

Vila, Peter M; Townsend, Melanie Elizabeth; Bhatt, Neel K; Kao, W Katherine; Sinha, Parul; Neely, J Gail

2017-06-01

There is a lack of reporting effect sizes and confidence intervals in the current biomedical literature. The objective of this article is to present a discussion of the recent paradigm shift encouraging the use of reporting effect sizes and confidence intervals. Although P values help to inform us about whether an effect exists due to chance, effect sizes inform us about the magnitude of the effect (clinical significance), and confidence intervals inform us about the range of plausible estimates for the general population mean (precision). Reporting effect sizes and confidence intervals is a necessary addition to the biomedical literature, and these concepts are reviewed in this article.

Finite Element Vibration Modeling and Experimental Validation for an Aircraft Engine Casing

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rabbitt, Christopher

This thesis presents a procedure for the development and validation of a theoretical vibration model, applies this procedure to a pair of aircraft engine casings, and compares select parameters from experimental testing of those casings to those from a theoretical model using the Modal Assurance Criterion (MAC) and linear regression coefficients. A novel method of determining the optimal MAC between axisymmetric results is developed and employed. It is concluded that the dynamic finite element models developed as part of this research are fully capable of modelling the modal parameters within the frequency range of interest. Confidence intervals calculated in this research for correlation coefficients provide important information regarding the reliability of predictions, and it is recommended that these intervals be calculated for all comparable coefficients. The procedure outlined for aligning mode shapes around an axis of symmetry proved useful, and the results are promising for the development of further optimization techniques.

Confidence Intervals for Error Rates Observed in Coded Communications Systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hamkins, J.

2015-05-01

We present methods to compute confidence intervals for the codeword error rate (CWER) and bit error rate (BER) of a coded communications link. We review several methods to compute exact and approximate confidence intervals for the CWER, and specifically consider the situation in which the true CWER is so low that only a handful, if any, codeword errors are able to be simulated. In doing so, we answer the question of how long an error-free simulation must be run in order to certify that a given CWER requirement is met with a given level of confidence, and discuss the bias introduced by aborting a simulation after observing the first codeword error. Next, we turn to the lesser studied problem of determining confidence intervals for the BER of coded systems. Since bit errors in systems that use coding or higher-order modulation do not occur independently, blind application of a method that assumes independence leads to inappropriately narrow confidence intervals. We present a new method to compute the confidence interval properly, using the first and second sample moments of the number of bit errors per codeword. This is the first method we know of to compute a confidence interval for the BER of a coded or higher-order modulation system.

The interaction between cannabis use and the Val158Met polymorphism of the COMT gene in psychosis: A transdiagnostic meta - analysis.

PubMed

Vaessen, Thomas Stephanus Johannes; de Jong, Lea; Schäfer, Annika Theresia; Damen, Thomas; Uittenboogaard, Aniek; Krolinski, Pauline; Nwosu, Chinyere Vicky; Pinckaers, Florentina Maria Egidius; Rotee, Iris Leah Marije; Smeets, Antonius Petrus Wilhelmus; Ermiş, Ayşegül; Kennedy, James L; Nieman, Dorien H; Tiwari, Arun; van Os, Jim; Drukker, Marjan

2018-01-01

Neither environmental nor genetic factors are sufficient to predict the transdiagnostic expression of psychosis. Therefore, analysis of gene-environment interactions may be productive. A meta-analysis was performed using papers investigating the interaction between cannabis use and catechol-O-methyl transferase (COMT) polymorphism Val158Met (COMTVal158Met). PubMed, Embase, PsychInfo. All observational studies assessing the interaction between COMTVal158Met and cannabis with any psychosis or psychotic symptoms measure as an outcome. A meta-analysis was performed using the Meta-analysis of Observational Studies in Epidemiology guidelines and forest plots were generated. Thirteen articles met the selection criteria: 7 clinical studies using a case-only design, 3 clinical studies with a dichotomous outcome, and 3 studies analysing a continuous outcome of psychotic symptoms below the threshold of psychotic disorder. The three study types were analysed separately. Validity of the included studies was assessed using "A Cochrane Risk of Bias Assessment Tool: for Non-Randomized Studies of Interventions". For case-only studies, a significant interaction was found between cannabis use and COMTVal158Met, with an OR of 1.45 (95% Confidence Interval = 1.05-2.00; Met/Met as the risk genotype). However, there was no evidence for interaction in either the studies including dichotomous outcomes (B = -0.51, 95% Confidence Interval -1.72, 0.70) or the studies including continuous outcomes (B = -0.04 95% Confidence Interval -0.16-0.08). A substantial part of the included studies used the case-only design, which has lower validity and tends to overestimate true effects. The interaction term between cannabis use and COMTVal158Met was only statistically significant in the case-only studies, but not in studies using other clinical or non-clinical psychosis outcomes. Future additional high quality studies might change current perspectives, yet currently evidence for the interaction remains unconvincing.

Nonalcoholic Fatty Liver Disease: MR Imaging of Liver Proton Density Fat Fraction to Assess Hepatic Steatosis

PubMed Central

Tang, An; Tan, Justin; Sun, Mark; Hamilton, Gavin; Bydder, Mark; Wolfson, Tanya; Gamst, Anthony C.; Middleton, Michael; Brunt, Elizabeth M.; Loomba, Rohit; Lavine, Joel E.; Schwimmer, Jeffrey B.

2013-01-01

Purpose: To evaluate the diagnostic performance of magnetic resonance (MR) imaging–estimated proton density fat fraction (PDFF) for assessing hepatic steatosis in nonalcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) by using centrally scored histopathologic validation as the reference standard. Materials and Methods: This prospectively designed, cross-sectional, internal review board–approved, HIPAA-compliant study was conducted in 77 patients who had NAFLD and liver biopsy. MR imaging–PDFF was estimated from magnitude-based low flip angle multiecho gradient-recalled echo images after T2* correction and multifrequency fat modeling. Histopathologic scoring was obtained by consensus of the Nonalcoholic Steatohepatitis (NASH) Clinical Research Network Pathology Committee. Spearman correlation, additivity and variance stabilization for regression for exploring the effect of a number of potential confounders, and receiver operating characteristic analyses were performed. Results: Liver MR imaging–PDFF was systematically higher, with higher histologic steatosis grade (P < .001), and was significantly correlated with histologic steatosis grade (ρ = 0.69, P < .001). The correlation was not confounded by age, sex, lobular inflammation, hepatocellular ballooning, NASH diagnosis, fibrosis, or magnetic field strength (P = .65). Area under the receiver operating characteristic curves was 0.989 (95% confidence interval: 0.968, 1.000) for distinguishing patients with steatosis grade 0 (n = 5) from those with grade 1 or higher (n = 72), 0.825 (95% confidence interval: 0.734, 0.915) to distinguish those with grade 1 or lower (n = 31) from those with grade 2 or higher (n = 46), and 0.893 (95% confidence interval: 0.809, 0.977) to distinguish those with grade 2 or lower (n = 58) from those with grade 3 (n = 19). Conclusion: MR imaging–PDFF showed promise for assessment of hepatic steatosis grade in patients with NAFLD. For validation, further studies with larger sample sizes are needed. © RSNA, 2013 PMID:23382291

Prediction of Early Recurrent Thromboembolic Event and Major Bleeding in Patients With Acute Stroke and Atrial Fibrillation by a Risk Stratification Schema: The ALESSA Score Study.

PubMed

Paciaroni, Maurizio; Agnelli, Giancarlo; Caso, Valeria; Tsivgoulis, Georgios; Furie, Karen L; Tadi, Prasanna; Becattini, Cecilia; Falocci, Nicola; Zedde, Marialuisa; Abdul-Rahim, Azmil H; Lees, Kennedy R; Alberti, Andrea; Venti, Michele; Acciarresi, Monica; D'Amore, Cataldo; Mosconi, Maria Giulia; Cimini, Ludovica Anna; Procopio, Antonio; Bovi, Paolo; Carletti, Monica; Rigatelli, Alberto; Cappellari, Manuel; Putaala, Jukka; Tomppo, Liisa; Tatlisumak, Turgut; Bandini, Fabio; Marcheselli, Simona; Pezzini, Alessandro; Poli, Loris; Padovani, Alessandro; Masotti, Luca; Vannucchi, Vieri; Sohn, Sung-Il; Lorenzini, Gianni; Tassi, Rossana; Guideri, Francesca; Acampa, Maurizio; Martini, Giuseppe; Ntaios, George; Karagkiozi, Efstathia; Athanasakis, George; Makaritsis, Kostantinos; Vadikolias, Kostantinos; Liantinioti, Chrysoula; Chondrogianni, Maria; Mumoli, Nicola; Consoli, Domenico; Galati, Franco; Sacco, Simona; Carolei, Antonio; Tiseo, Cindy; Corea, Francesco; Ageno, Walter; Bellesini, Marta; Colombo, Giovanna; Silvestrelli, Giorgio; Ciccone, Alfonso; Scoditti, Umberto; Denti, Licia; Mancuso, Michelangelo; Maccarrone, Miriam; Orlandi, Giovanni; Giannini, Nicola; Gialdini, Gino; Tassinari, Tiziana; De Lodovici, Maria Luisa; Bono, Giorgio; Rueckert, Christina; Baldi, Antonio; D'Anna, Sebastiano; Toni, Danilo; Letteri, Federica; Giuntini, Martina; Lotti, Enrico Maria; Flomin, Yuriy; Pieroni, Alessio; Kargiotis, Odysseas; Karapanayiotides, Theodore; Monaco, Serena; Baronello, Mario Maimone; Csiba, Laszló; Szabó, Lilla; Chiti, Alberto; Giorli, Elisa; Del Sette, Massimo; Imberti, Davide; Zabzuni, Dorjan; Doronin, Boris; Volodina, Vera; Michel, Patrik; Vanacker, Peter; Barlinn, Kristian; Pallesen, Lars-Peder; Kepplinger, Jessica; Bodechtel, Ulf; Gerber, Johannes; Deleu, Dirk; Melikyan, Gayane; Ibrahim, Faisal; Akhtar, Naveed; Gourbali, Vanessa; Yaghi, Shadi

2017-03-01

This study was designed to derive and validate a score to predict early ischemic events and major bleedings after an acute ischemic stroke in patients with atrial fibrillation. The derivation cohort consisted of 854 patients with acute ischemic stroke and atrial fibrillation included in prospective series between January 2012 and March 2014. Older age (hazard ratio 1.06 for each additional year; 95% confidence interval, 1.00-1.11) and severe atrial enlargement (hazard ratio, 2.05; 95% confidence interval, 1.08-2.87) were predictors for ischemic outcome events (stroke, transient ischemic attack, and systemic embolism) at 90 days from acute stroke. Small lesions (≤1.5 cm) were inversely correlated with both major bleeding (hazard ratio, 0.39; P =0.03) and ischemic outcome events (hazard ratio, 0.55; 95% confidence interval, 0.30-1.00). We assigned to age ≥80 years 2 points and between 70 and 79 years 1 point; ischemic index lesion >1.5 cm, 1 point; severe atrial enlargement, 1 point (ALESSA score). A logistic regression with the receiver-operating characteristic graph procedure (C statistic) showed an area under the curve of 0.697 (0.632-0.763; P =0.0001) for ischemic outcome events and 0.585 (0.493-0.678; P =0.10) for major bleedings. The validation cohort consisted of 994 patients included in prospective series between April 2014 and June 2016. Logistic regression with the receiver-operating characteristic graph procedure showed an area under the curve of 0.646 (0.529-0.763; P =0.009) for ischemic outcome events and 0.407 (0.275-0.540; P =0.14) for hemorrhagic outcome events. In acute stroke patients with atrial fibrillation, high ALESSA scores were associated with a high risk of ischemic events but not of major bleedings. © 2017 American Heart Association, Inc.

Risk of cardiovascular events and death in the life after aneurysmal subarachnoid haemorrhage: a nationwide study.

PubMed

Nieuwkamp, Dennis J; Vaartjes, Ilonca; Algra, Ale; Rinkel, Gabriel J E; Bots, Michiel L

2014-12-01

The increased mortality rates of survivors of aneurysmal subarachnoid haemorrhage have been attributed to an increased risk of cardiovascular events in a registry study in Sweden. Swedish registries have however not been validated for subarachnoid haemorrhage and Scandinavian incidences of cardiovascular disease differ from that in Western European countries. We assessed risks of vascular disease and death in subarachnoid haemorrhage survivors in the Netherlands. From the Dutch hospital discharge register, we identified all patients with subarachnoid haemorrhage admission between 1997 and 2008. We determined the accuracy of coding of the diagnosis subarachnoid haemorrhage for patients admitted to our centre. Conditional on survival of three-months after the subarachnoid haemorrhage, we calculated standardized incidence and mortality ratios for fatal or nonfatal vascular diseases, vascular death, and all-cause death. Cumulative risks were estimated with survival analysis. The diagnosis of nontraumatic subarachnoid haemorrhage was correct in 95·4% of 1472 patients. Of 11,263 admitted subarachnoid haemorrhage patients, 6999 survived more than three-months. During follow-up (mean 5·1 years), 874 (12·5%) died. The risks of death were 3·3% within one-year, 11·3% within five-years, and 21·5% within 10 years. The standardized mortality ratio was 3·4 (95% confidence interval: 3·1 to 3·7) for vascular death and 2·2 (95% confidence interval: 2·1 to 2·3) for all-cause death. The standardized incidence ratio for fatal or nonfatal vascular diseases was 2·7 (95% confidence interval: 2·6 to 2·8). Dutch hospital discharge and cause of death registries are a valid source of data for subarachnoid haemorrhage, and show that the increased mortality rate in subarachnoid haemorrhage survivors is explained by increased risks for vascular diseases and death. © 2012 The Authors. International Journal of Stroke © 2012 World Stroke Organization.

Development and validation of a nomogram predicting recurrence risk in women with symptomatic urinary tract infection.

PubMed

Cai, Tommaso; Mazzoli, Sandra; Migno, Serena; Malossini, Gianni; Lanzafame, Paolo; Mereu, Liliana; Tateo, Saverio; Wagenlehner, Florian M E; Pickard, Robert S; Bartoletti, Riccardo

2014-09-01

To develop and externally validate a novel nomogram predicting recurrence risk probability at 12 months in women after an episode of urinary tract infection. The study included 768 women from Santa Maria Annunziata Hospital, Florence, Italy, affected by urinary tract infections from January 2005 to December 2009. Another 373 women with the same criteria enrolled at Santa Chiara Hospital, Trento, Italy, from January 2010 to June 2012 were used to externally validate and calibrate the nomogram. Univariate and multivariate Cox regression models tested the relationship between urinary tract infection recurrence risk, and patient clinical and laboratory characteristics. The nomogram was evaluated by calculating concordance probabilities, as well as testing calibration of predicted urinary tract infection recurrence with observed urinary tract infections. Nomogram variables included: number of partners, bowel function, type of pathogens isolated (Gram-positive/negative), hormonal status, number of previous urinary tract infection recurrences and previous treatment of asymptomatic bacteriuria. Of the original development data, 261 out of 768 women presented at least one episode of recurrence of urinary tract infection (33.9%). The nomogram had a concordance index of 0.85. The nomogram predictions were well calibrated. This model showed high discrimination accuracy and favorable calibration characteristics. In the validation group (373 women), the overall c-index was 0.83 (P = 0.003, 95% confidence interval 0.51-0.99), whereas the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve was 0.85 (95% confidence interval 0.79-0.91). The present nomogram accurately predicts the recurrence risk of urinary tract infection at 12 months, and can assist in identifying women at high risk of symptomatic recurrence that can be suitable candidates for a prophylactic strategy. © 2014 The Japanese Urological Association.

External Validation of Fatty Liver Index for Identifying Ultrasonographic Fatty Liver in a Large-Scale Cross-Sectional Study in Taiwan

PubMed Central

Fang, Kuan-Chieh; Wang, Yuan-Chen; Huo, Teh-Ia; Huang, Yi-Hsiang; Yang, Hwai-I; Su, Chien-Wei; Lin, Han-Chieh; Lee, Fa-Yauh; Wu, Jaw-Ching; Lee, Shou-Dong

2015-01-01

Background and Aims The fatty liver index (FLI) is an algorithm involving the waist circumference, body mass index, and serum levels of triglyceride and gamma-glutamyl transferase to identify fatty liver. Although some studies have attempted to validate the FLI, few studies have been conducted for external validation among Asians. We attempted to validate FLI to predict ultrasonographic fatty liver in Taiwanese subjects. Methods We enrolled consecutive subjects who received health check-up services at the Taipei Veterans General Hospital from 2002 to 2009. Ultrasonography was applied to diagnose fatty liver. The ability of the FLI to detect ultrasonographic fatty liver was assessed by analyzing the area under the receiver operating characteristic (AUROC) curve. Results Among the 29,797 subjects enrolled in this study, fatty liver was diagnosed in 44.5% of the population. Subjects with ultrasonographic fatty liver had a significantly higher FLI than those without fatty liver by multivariate analysis (odds ratio 1.045; 95% confidence interval, CI 1.044–1.047, p< 0.001). Moreover, FLI had the best discriminative ability to identify patients with ultrasonographic fatty liver (AUROC: 0.827, 95% confidence interval, 0.822–0.831). An FLI < 25 (negative likelihood ratio (LR−) 0.32) for males and <10 (LR− 0.26) for females rule out ultrasonographic fatty liver. Moreover, an FLI ≥ 35 (positive likelihood ratio (LR+) 3.12) for males and ≥ 20 (LR+ 4.43) for females rule in ultrasonographic fatty liver. Conclusions FLI could accurately identify ultrasonographic fatty liver in a large-scale population in Taiwan but with lower cut-off value than the Western population. Meanwhile the cut-off value was lower in females than in males. PMID:25781622

Validation of a Predictive Scoring System for Deep Sternal Wound Infection after Bilateral Internal Thoracic Artery Grafting in a Cohort of French Patients.

PubMed

Perrotti, Andrea; Gatti, Giuseppe; Dorigo, Enrica; Sinagra, Gianfranco; Pappalardo, Aniello; Chocron, Sidney

The Gatti score is a weighted scoring system based on risk factors for deep sternal wound infection (DSWI) that was created in an Italian center to predict DSWI risk after bilateral internal thoracic artery (BITA) grafting. No external evaluation based on validation samples derived from other surgical centers has been performed. The aim of this study is to perform this validation. During 2015, BITA grafts were used as skeletonized conduits in all 255 consecutive patients with multi-vessel coronary disease who underwent isolated coronary bypass surgery at the Department of Thoracic and Cardio-Vascular Surgery, University Hospital Jean Minjoz, Besançon, France. Baseline characteristics, operative data, and immediate outcomes of every patient were collected prospectively. A DSWI risk score was assigned to each patient pre-operatively. The discrimination power of both models, pre-operative and combined, of the Gatti score was assessed with the calculation of the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve. Fourteen (5.5%) patients had DSWI. Major differences both as the baseline characteristics of patients and surgical techniques were found between this series and the original series from which the Gatti score was derived. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve was 0.78 (95% confidence interval: 0.64-0.92) for the pre-operative model and 0.84 (95% confidence interval: 0.69-0.98) for the combined model. The Gatti score has proven to be effective even in a cohort of French patients despite major differences from the original Italian series. Multi-center validation studies must be performed before introducing the score into clinical practice.

Pharmacokinetics and bioequivalence study of two brands of loxoprofen tablets in healthy volunteers.

PubMed

Jhee, Ok Hwa; Lee, Min Ho; Shaw, Leslie M; Lee, Seo Eun; Park, Jin Hee; Kang, Ju Seop

2007-01-01

The aims of this study were to assess the pharmacokinetics and bioequivalence of two brands of loxoprofen (CAS 80832-23-6) 60 mg tablets in healthy male volunteers. The several pharmacokinetic parameters were evaluated after an oral administration after an overnight fast according to a single dose, two-sequence, and cross-over randomized design with a 1-week washout interval. Serial blood samples were collected throughout 10 h after administration of the reference and test drug. Plasma was analyzed by validated HPLC with UV detection. Several pharmacokinetic parameters, including AUC(infnity), AUC(t), C(max), T(max), T1/2, and Ke were determined from blood concentrations of both formulations. AUC(t), AUC(infinity) and C(max) were evaluated for bioequivalence after log-transformation of data using ANOVA with 90% confidence interval level. The parametric 90% confidence intervals of AUC(t), AUC(infinity), and C(max) were 90.13-106.34%, 91.43-106.94%, and 91.17-108.53%, respectively. All of the tested parameters were within the acceptable range of 80-125%. Based on these statistical considerations, it was concluded that the test drug was bioequivalent to the reference drug.

Lead in a Baltimore shipyard.

PubMed

Hall, Francis X

2006-12-01

The goal was to monitor the effectiveness of the Coast Guard Yard's lead program by comparing a shipyard period in 1991 to one in 2002-2003. Comparisons of airborne lead levels by paint removal techniques, airborne lead levels by welding techniques, and blood lead levels of workers were evaluated by chi2 analysis. Airborne lead levels in paint removal techniques decreased over time for all methods used. Airborne lead levels in welding techniques decreased over time for all methods used. Blood lead levels of the high-risk group revealed a 2-fold reduction (prevalence rate ratio = 8.3; 95% confidence interval, 3.7-18.6) and in the low-risk group revealed a 1.6-fold reduction (prevalence rate ratio = 6.2; 95% confidence interval, 0.86-44.7). The Coast Guard Yard runs an effective lead program that exceeds the national Healthy People 2010 goal for lead. The results validate the Coast Guard Yard's use of air-line respirators and lead-free paint on all vessels.

Emotional Freedom Techniques for Anxiety: A Systematic Review With Meta-analysis.

PubMed

Clond, Morgan

2016-05-01

Emotional Freedom Technique (EFT) combines elements of exposure and cognitive therapies with acupressure for the treatment of psychological distress. Randomized controlled trials retrieved by literature search were assessed for quality using the criteria developed by the American Psychological Association's Division 12 Task Force on Empirically Validated Treatments. As of December 2015, 14 studies (n = 658) met inclusion criteria. Results were analyzed using an inverse variance weighted meta-analysis. The pre-post effect size for the EFT treatment group was 1.23 (95% confidence interval, 0.82-1.64; p < 0.001), whereas the effect size for combined controls was 0.41 (95% confidence interval, 0.17-0.67; p = 0.001). Emotional freedom technique treatment demonstrated a significant decrease in anxiety scores, even when accounting for the effect size of control treatment. However, there were too few data available comparing EFT to standard-of-care treatments such as cognitive behavioral therapy, and further research is needed to establish the relative efficacy of EFT to established protocols.

The cross-cultural adaptation, reliability, and validity of the Copenhagen Neck Functional Disability Scale in patients with chronic neck pain: Turkish version study.

PubMed

Yapali, Gökmen; Günel, Mintaze Kerem; Karahan, Sevilay

2012-05-15

The study design was cross-cultural adaptation and investigation of reliability and validity of the Copenhagen Neck Functional Disability Scale (CNFDS). The aim of this study was to translate the CNFDS into Turkish language and assess its reliability and validity among patients with neck pain in Turkish population. The CNFDS is a reliable and valid evaluation instrument for disability, but there is no published the Turkish version of the CNFDS. One hundred one subjects who had chronic neck pain were included in this study. The CNFDS, Neck Pain and Disability Scale, and visual analogue scale were administered to all subjects. For investigating test-retest reliability, correlation between CNFDS scores, applied at 1-week interval, intraclass correlation coefficient score for test-retest reliability was 0.86 (95% confidence interval = 0.679-0.935). There was no difference between test-retest scores (P < 0.001). For investigating concurrent validity, correlation between total score of the CNFDS and the mean visual analogue scale was r = 0.73 (P < 0.001). Concurrent validity of the CNFDS was very good. For investigating construct validity, correlation between total score of the CNFDS and the Neck Pain and Disability Scale was r = 0.78 (P < 0.001). Construct validity of the CNFDS was also very good. Our results suggest that the Turkish version of the CNFDS is a reliable and valid instrument for Turkish people.

Minimax confidence intervals in geomagnetism

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Stark, Philip B.

1992-01-01

The present paper uses theory of Donoho (1989) to find lower bounds on the lengths of optimally short fixed-length confidence intervals (minimax confidence intervals) for Gauss coefficients of the field of degree 1-12 using the heat flow constraint. The bounds on optimal minimax intervals are about 40 percent shorter than Backus' intervals: no procedure for producing fixed-length confidence intervals, linear or nonlinear, can give intervals shorter than about 60 percent the length of Backus' in this problem. While both methods rigorously account for the fact that core field models are infinite-dimensional, the application of the techniques to the geomagnetic problem involves approximations and counterfactual assumptions about the data errors, and so these results are likely to be extremely optimistic estimates of the actual uncertainty in Gauss coefficients.

Using Screencast Videos to Enhance Undergraduate Students' Statistical Reasoning about Confidence Intervals

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Strazzeri, Kenneth Charles

2013-01-01

The purposes of this study were to investigate (a) undergraduate students' reasoning about the concepts of confidence intervals (b) undergraduate students' interactions with "well-designed" screencast videos on sampling distributions and confidence intervals, and (c) how screencast videos improve undergraduate students' reasoning ability…

[Investigation of Color Vision Using Pigment Color Plates and a Tablet PC].

PubMed

Tsimpri, P; Kuchenbecker, J

2016-07-01

Many applications (apps) for ophthalmic solutions, including colour vision tests, are currently available. However, no colour vision test app has been evaluated through clinical trials on a tablet PC. Using standard test conditions and a tablet pc (iPad2®), colour vision tests were performed with 19 Velhagen/Broschmann/Kuchenbecker colour plates and an HMC anomaloscope. The plates were alternately presented at first in a book (pigment colour plates) and then in a tablet PC (iPad®). A total of 77 volunteer subjects were examined. 62 subjects were colour normal and 15 male subjects had a colour vision deficiency. The coincidence and the 95 % confidence intervals were determined. The average age of all subjects (n = 77) was 42.8 ± 16.9 years. The mean near visual acuity of all subjects was 0.99 ± 0.15. The coincidence of the results of all subjects between books and tablet PC was 88.0 %. The 95 % confidence interval ranged from 81.6 to 89.6 %. In the group of subjects with colour vision deficiency (n = 15), the coincidence was 83.3 %. The 95 % confidence interval ranged from 78.4 to 87.3 %. In the group of subjects without colour vision deficiency (n = 62), the coincidence was 89.1 %. The 95 % confidence interval ranged from 87.1 to 90.8 %. The overlap of error numbers of colour normal subjects and colour vision deficiency subjects was 2 errors with the book and 5 errors with the tablet pc. Testing colour vision using book and tablet pc only gives roughly comparable results. However, separation with the book was better and the colour plates differed in validity. For this reason, only some of the colour plates could be used on a tablet PC. Georg Thieme Verlag KG Stuttgart · New York.

Predictors of long-term recurrent vascular events after ischemic stroke at young age: the Italian Project on Stroke in Young Adults.

PubMed

Pezzini, Alessandro; Grassi, Mario; Lodigiani, Corrado; Patella, Rosalba; Gandolfo, Carlo; Zini, Andrea; Delodovici, Maria Luisa; Paciaroni, Maurizio; Del Sette, Massimo; Toriello, Antonella; Musolino, Rossella; Calabrò, Rocco Salvatore; Bovi, Paolo; Adami, Alessandro; Silvestrelli, Giorgio; Sessa, Maria; Cavallini, Anna; Marcheselli, Simona; Bonifati, Domenico Marco; Checcarelli, Nicoletta; Tancredi, Lucia; Chiti, Alberto; Del Zotto, Elisabetta; Spalloni, Alessandra; Giossi, Alessia; Volonghi, Irene; Costa, Paolo; Giacalone, Giacomo; Ferrazzi, Paola; Poli, Loris; Morotti, Andrea; Rasura, Maurizia; Simone, Anna Maria; Gamba, Massimo; Cerrato, Paolo; Micieli, Giuseppe; Melis, Maurizio; Massucco, Davide; De Giuli, Valeria; Iacoviello, Licia; Padovani, Alessandro

2014-04-22

Data on long-term risk and predictors of recurrent thrombotic events after ischemic stroke at a young age are limited. We followed 1867 patients with first-ever ischemic stroke who were 18 to 45 years of age (mean age, 36.8±7.1 years; women, 49.0%), as part of the Italian Project on Stroke in Young Adults (IPSYS). Median follow-up was 40 months (25th to 75th percentile, 53). The primary end point was a composite of ischemic stroke, transient ischemic attack, myocardial infarction, or other arterial events. One hundred sixty-three patients had recurrent thrombotic events (average rate, 2.26 per 100 person-years at risk). At 10 years, cumulative risk was 14.7% (95% confidence interval, 12.2%-17.9%) for primary end point, 14.0% (95% confidence interval, 11.4%-17.1%) for brain ischemia, and 0.7% (95% confidence interval, 0.4%-1.3%) for myocardial infarction or other arterial events. Familial history of stroke, migraine with aura, circulating antiphospholipid antibodies, discontinuation of antiplatelet and antihypertensive medications, and any increase of 1 traditional vascular risk factor were independent predictors of the composite end point in multivariable Cox proportional hazards analysis. A point-scoring system for each variable was generated by their β-coefficients, and a predictive score (IPSYS score) was calculated as the sum of the weighted scores. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve of the 0- to 5-year score was 0.66 (95% confidence interval, 0.61-0.71; mean, 10-fold internally cross-validated area under the receiver operating characteristic curve, 0.65). Among patients with ischemic stroke aged 18 to 45 years, the long-term risk of recurrent thrombotic events is associated with modifiable, age-specific risk factors. The IPSYS score may serve as a simple tool for risk estimation.

Improved central confidence intervals for the ratio of Poisson means

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cousins, R. D.

The problem of confidence intervals for the ratio of two unknown Poisson means was "solved" decades ago, but a closer examination reveals that the standard solution is far from optimal from the frequentist point of view. We construct a more powerful set of central confidence intervals, each of which is a (typically proper) subinterval of the corresponding standard interval. They also provide upper and lower confidence limits which are more restrictive than the standard limits. The construction follows Neyman's original prescription, though discreteness of the Poisson distribution and the presence of a nuisance parameter (one of the unknown means) lead to slightly conservative intervals. Philosophically, the issue of the appropriateness of the construction method is similar to the issue of conditioning on the margins in 2×2 contingency tables. From a frequentist point of view, the new set maintains (over) coverage of the unknown true value of the ratio of means at each stated confidence level, even though the new intervals are shorter than the old intervals by any measure (except for two cases where they are identical). As an example, when the number 2 is drawn from each Poisson population, the 90% CL central confidence interval on the ratio of means is (0.169, 5.196), rather than (0.108, 9.245). In the cited literature, such confidence intervals have applications in numerous branches of pure and applied science, including agriculture, wildlife studies, manufacturing, medicine, reliability theory, and elementary particle physics.

CALCULATION OF NONLINEAR CONFIDENCE AND PREDICTION INTERVALS FOR GROUND-WATER FLOW MODELS.

USGS Publications Warehouse

Cooley, Richard L.; Vecchia, Aldo V.

1987-01-01

A method is derived to efficiently compute nonlinear confidence and prediction intervals on any function of parameters derived as output from a mathematical model of a physical system. The method is applied to the problem of obtaining confidence and prediction intervals for manually-calibrated ground-water flow models. To obtain confidence and prediction intervals resulting from uncertainties in parameters, the calibrated model and information on extreme ranges and ordering of the model parameters within one or more independent groups are required. If random errors in the dependent variable are present in addition to uncertainties in parameters, then calculation of prediction intervals also requires information on the extreme range of error expected. A simple Monte Carlo method is used to compute the quantiles necessary to establish probability levels for the confidence and prediction intervals. Application of the method to a hypothetical example showed that inclusion of random errors in the dependent variable in addition to uncertainties in parameters can considerably widen the prediction intervals.

Analyzing Thorough QT Study 1 & 2 in the Telemetric and Holter ECG Warehouse (THEW) using Hannover ECG System HES : A validation study.

PubMed

Khawaja, A; Petrovic, R; Safer, A; Baas, T; Dössel, O; Fischer, R

2010-01-01

Following the ICH E14 clinical evaluation guideline [1], the measurement of QT/QTc interval prolongation has become the standard surrogate biomarker for cardiac drug safety assessment and the faith of a drug development. In Thorough QT (TQT) study, a so-called positive control is employed to assess the ability of this study to detect the endpoint of interest, i.e. the QT prolongation by about five milliseconds. In other words the lower bound of the one-sided 95% confidence interval (CI) must be above 0 [ms]. Fully automated detection of ECG fiducial points and measurement of the corresponding intervals including QT intervals and RR intervals vary between different computerized algorithms. In this work we demonstrate the ability and reliability of Hannover ECG System (HES(®)) to assess drug effects by detecting QT/QTc prolongation effects that meet the threshold of regulatory concern as mentioned by using THEW database studies namely TQT studies one and two.

Bootstrapping Confidence Intervals for Robust Measures of Association.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

King, Jason E.

A Monte Carlo simulation study was conducted to determine the bootstrap correction formula yielding the most accurate confidence intervals for robust measures of association. Confidence intervals were generated via the percentile, adjusted, BC, and BC(a) bootstrap procedures and applied to the Winsorized, percentage bend, and Pearson correlation…

Interpretation of Confidence Interval Facing the Conflict

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Andrade, Luisa; Fernández, Felipe

2016-01-01

As literature has reported, it is usual that university students in statistics courses, and even statistics teachers, interpret the confidence level associated with a confidence interval as the probability that the parameter value will be between the lower and upper interval limits. To confront this misconception, class activities have been…

Evaluating Independent Proportions for Statistical Difference, Equivalence, Indeterminacy, and Trivial Difference Using Inferential Confidence Intervals

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Tryon, Warren W.; Lewis, Charles

2009-01-01

Tryon presented a graphic inferential confidence interval (ICI) approach to analyzing two independent and dependent means for statistical difference, equivalence, replication, indeterminacy, and trivial difference. Tryon and Lewis corrected the reduction factor used to adjust descriptive confidence intervals (DCIs) to create ICIs and introduced…

Four applications of permutation methods to testing a single-mediator model.

PubMed

Taylor, Aaron B; MacKinnon, David P

2012-09-01

Four applications of permutation tests to the single-mediator model are described and evaluated in this study. Permutation tests work by rearranging data in many possible ways in order to estimate the sampling distribution for the test statistic. The four applications to mediation evaluated here are the permutation test of ab, the permutation joint significance test, and the noniterative and iterative permutation confidence intervals for ab. A Monte Carlo simulation study was used to compare these four tests with the four best available tests for mediation found in previous research: the joint significance test, the distribution of the product test, and the percentile and bias-corrected bootstrap tests. We compared the different methods on Type I error, power, and confidence interval coverage. The noniterative permutation confidence interval for ab was the best performer among the new methods. It successfully controlled Type I error, had power nearly as good as the most powerful existing methods, and had better coverage than any existing method. The iterative permutation confidence interval for ab had lower power than do some existing methods, but it performed better than any other method in terms of coverage. The permutation confidence interval methods are recommended when estimating a confidence interval is a primary concern. SPSS and SAS macros that estimate these confidence intervals are provided.

A possible simplification for the estimation of area under the curve (AUC₀₋₁₂) of enteric-coated mycophenolate sodium in renal transplant patients receiving tacrolimus.

PubMed

Fleming, Denise H; Mathew, Binu S; Prasanna, Samuel; Annapandian, Vellaichamy M; John, George T

2011-04-01

Enteric-coated mycophenolate sodium (EC-MPS) is widely used in renal transplantation. With a delayed absorption profile, it has not been possible to develop limited sampling strategies to estimate area under the curve (mycophenolic acid [MPA] AUC₀₋₁₂), which have limited time points and are completed in 2 hours. We developed and validated simplified strategies to estimate MPA AUC₀₋₁₂ in an Indian renal transplant population prescribed EC-MPS together with prednisolone and tacrolimus. Intensive pharmacokinetic sampling (17 samples each) was performed in 18 patients to measure MPA AUC₀₋₁₂. The profiles at 1 month were used to develop the simplified strategies and those at 5.5 months used for validation. We followed two approaches. In one, the AUC was calculated using the trapezoidal rule with fewer time points followed by an extrapolation. In the second approach, by stepwise multiple regression analysis, models with different time points were identified and linear regression analysis performed. Using the trapezoidal rule, two equations were developed with six time points and sampling to 6 or 8 hours (8hrAUC[₀₋₁₂exp]) after the EC-MPS dose. On validation, the 8hrAUC(₀₋₁₂exp) compared with total measured AUC₀₋₁₂ had a coefficient of correlation (r²) of 0.872 with a bias and precision (95% confidence interval) of 0.54% (-6.07-7.15) and 9.73% (5.37-14.09), respectively. Second, limited sampling strategies were developed with four, five, six, seven, and eight time points and completion within 2 hours, 4 hours, 6 hours, and 8 hours after the EC-MPS dose. On validation, six, seven, and eight time point equations, all with sampling to 8 hours, had an acceptable r with the total measured MPA AUC₀₋₁₂ (0.817-0.927). In the six, seven, and eight time points, the bias (95% confidence interval) was 3.00% (-4.59 to 10.59), 0.29% (-5.4 to 5.97), and -0.72% (-5.34 to 3.89) and the precision (95% confidence interval) was 10.59% (5.06-16.13), 8.33% (4.55-12.1), and 6.92% (3.94-9.90), respectively. Of the eight simplified approaches, inclusion of seven or eight time points improved the accuracy of the predicted AUC compared with the actual and can be advocated based on the priority of the user.

Computationally efficient confidence intervals for cross-validated area under the ROC curve estimates.

PubMed

LeDell, Erin; Petersen, Maya; van der Laan, Mark

In binary classification problems, the area under the ROC curve (AUC) is commonly used to evaluate the performance of a prediction model. Often, it is combined with cross-validation in order to assess how the results will generalize to an independent data set. In order to evaluate the quality of an estimate for cross-validated AUC, we obtain an estimate of its variance. For massive data sets, the process of generating a single performance estimate can be computationally expensive. Additionally, when using a complex prediction method, the process of cross-validating a predictive model on even a relatively small data set can still require a large amount of computation time. Thus, in many practical settings, the bootstrap is a computationally intractable approach to variance estimation. As an alternative to the bootstrap, we demonstrate a computationally efficient influence curve based approach to obtaining a variance estimate for cross-validated AUC.

Computationally efficient confidence intervals for cross-validated area under the ROC curve estimates

PubMed Central

Petersen, Maya; van der Laan, Mark

2015-01-01

In binary classification problems, the area under the ROC curve (AUC) is commonly used to evaluate the performance of a prediction model. Often, it is combined with cross-validation in order to assess how the results will generalize to an independent data set. In order to evaluate the quality of an estimate for cross-validated AUC, we obtain an estimate of its variance. For massive data sets, the process of generating a single performance estimate can be computationally expensive. Additionally, when using a complex prediction method, the process of cross-validating a predictive model on even a relatively small data set can still require a large amount of computation time. Thus, in many practical settings, the bootstrap is a computationally intractable approach to variance estimation. As an alternative to the bootstrap, we demonstrate a computationally efficient influence curve based approach to obtaining a variance estimate for cross-validated AUC. PMID:26279737

ASSOCIATION OF DAIRY CONSUMPTION AND 24-HOUR BLOOD PRESSURE IN OLDER ADULTS WITH HYPERTENSION.

PubMed

Lana, Alberto; Banegas, Jose R; Guallar-Castillón, Pilar; Rodríguez-Artalejo, Fernando; Lopez-Garcia, Esther

2018-05-25

The aim was to examine the association between habitual consumption of dairy products and 24-h ambulatory blood pressure monitoring among older adults with hypertension. We conducted an analysis of 715 community-living hypertensive adults aged ≥60. Habitual dairy consumption was assessed with a validated diet history. Blood pressure was recorded by 24-hour ambulatory blood pressure monitoring; controlled blood pressure was defined as 24-hour blood pressure <130/80 mm Hg in those under drug treatment. Analyses were adjusted for main confounders, including diet, hypertension duration, and being on antihypertensive treatment. After adjustment for confounders, consumers of ≥7 servings/wk of whole milk/yogurt had a diastolic blood pressure 1.40 mm Hg higher (95% confidence interval: 0.01, 2.81) than consumers of <1 serving/wk. By contrast, consumers of ≥7 servings/wk of low-fat milk/yogurt had a diastolic blood pressure 1.74 mm Hg lower (95% confidence interval: -3.26, -0.23) than consumers of <1 serving/wk. Moreover, the odds ratio (95% confidence interval) for controlled blood pressure was 1.83 (1.05-3.08) for those consuming ≥7 servings/wk of low-fat milk/yogurt, when comparing with consumers of <1 serving/wk. Cheese consumption was not associated with blood pressure. Regular consumption of low-fat milk/yogurt was associated with lower 24-h diastolic blood pressure and with better blood pressure control among older adults with hypertension. Copyright © 2018. Published by Elsevier Inc.

An epigenetic signature of adhesion molecules predicts poor prognosis of ovarian cancer patients

PubMed Central

Chang, Ping-Ying; Liao, Yu-Ping; Wang, Hui-Chen; Chen, Yu-Chih; Huang, Rui-Lan; Wang, Yu-Chi; Yuan, Chiou-Chung; Lai, Hung-Cheng

2017-01-01

DNA methylation is a promising biomarker for cancer. The epigenetic effects of cell adhesion molecules may affect the therapeutic outcome and the present study examined their effects on survival in ovarian cancer. We integrated methylomics and genomics datasets in The Cancer Genome Atlas (n = 391) and identified 106 highly methylated adhesion-related genes in ovarian cancer tissues. Univariate analysis revealed the methylation status of eight genes related to progression-free survival. In multivariate Cox regression analysis, four highly methylated genes (CD97, CTNNA1, DLC1, HAPLN2) and three genes (LAMA4, LPP, MFAP4) with low methylation were significantly associated with poor progression-free survival. Low methylation of VTN was an independent poor prognostic factor for overall survival after adjustment for age and stage. Patients who carried any two of CTNNA1, DLC1 or MFAP4 were significantly associated with poor progression-free survival (hazard ratio: 1.59; 95% confidence interval: 1.23, 2.05). This prognostic methylation signature was validated in a methylomics dataset generated in our lab (n = 37, hazard ratio: 16.64; 95% confidence interval: 2.68, 103.14) and in another from the Australian Ovarian Cancer Study (n = 91, hazard ratio: 2.43; 95% confidence interval: 1.11, 5.36). Epigenetics of cell adhesion molecules is related to ovarian cancer prognosis. A more comprehensive methylomics of cell adhesion molecules is needed and may advance personalized treatment with adhesion molecule-related drugs. PMID:28881822

Parental self-efficacy in childhood overweight: validation of the Lifestyle Behavior Checklist in the Netherlands.

PubMed

Gerards, Sanne M P L; Hummel, Karin; Dagnelie, Pieter C; de Vries, Nanne K; Kremers, Stef P J

2013-01-18

Evaluating whether parental challenges and self-efficacy toward managing children's lifestyle behaviors are successfully addressed by interventions requires valid instruments. The Lifestyle Behavior Checklist (LBC) has recently been developed in the Australian context. It consists of two subscales: the Problem scale, which measures parental perceptions of children's behavioral problems related to overweight and obesity, and the Confidence scale, measuring parental self-efficacy in dealing with these problems. The aim of the current study was to systematically translate the questionnaire into Dutch and to evaluate its internal consistency, construct validity and test-retest reliability. The LBC was systematically translated by four experts at Maastricht University. In total, 392 parents of 3-to13-year-old children were invited to fill out two successive online questionnaires with a two-week interval. Of these, 273 parents responded to the first questionnaire (test, response rate = 69.6%), and of the 202 who could be invited for the second questionnaire (retest), 100 responded (response rate = 49.5%). We assessed the questionnaire's internal consistency (Cronbach's α), construct validity (Spearman's Rho correlation tests, using the criterion measures: restrictiveness, nurturance, and psychological control), and test-retest reliability (Spearman's Rho correlation tests). Both scales had high internal consistency (Cronbach's α ≥ 0.90). Spearman correlation coefficients indicated acceptable test-retest reliability for both the Problem scale (rs = 0.74) and the Confidence scale (rs = 0.70). The LBC Problem scale was significantly correlated to all criterion scales (nurturance, restrictiveness, psychological control) in the hypothesized direction, and the LBC Confidence scale was significantly correlated with nurturance and psychological control in the hypothesized direction, but not with restrictiveness. The Dutch translation of the LBC was found to be a reliable and reasonably valid questionnaire to measure parental perceptions of children's weight-related problem behavior and the extent to which parents feel confident to manage these problems.

Race, Ethnicity, Language, Social Class, and Health Communication Inequalities: A Nationally-Representative Cross-Sectional Study

PubMed Central

Viswanath, Kasisomayajula; Ackerson, Leland K.

2011-01-01

Background While mass media communications can be an important source of health information, there are substantial social disparities in health knowledge that may be related to media use. The purpose of this study is to investigate how the use of cancer-related health communications is patterned by race, ethnicity, language, and social class. Methodology/Principal Findings In a nationally-representative cross-sectional telephone survey, 5,187 U.S. adults provided information about demographic characteristics, cancer information seeking, and attention to and trust in health information from television, radio, newspaper, magazines, and the Internet. Cancer information seeking was lowest among Spanish-speaking Hispanics (odds ratio: 0.42; 95% confidence interval: 0.28–0.63) compared to non-Hispanic whites. Spanish-speaking Hispanics were more likely than non-Hispanic whites to pay attention to (odds ratio: 3.10; 95% confidence interval: 2.07–4.66) and trust (odds ratio: 2.61; 95% confidence interval: 1.53–4.47) health messages from the radio. Non-Hispanic blacks were more likely than non-Hispanic whites to pay attention to (odds ratio: 2.39; 95% confidence interval: 1.88–3.04) and trust (odds ratio: 2.16; 95% confidence interval: 1.61–2.90) health messages on television. Those who were college graduates tended to pay more attention to health information from newspapers (odds ratio: 1.98; 95% confidence interval: 1.42–2.75), magazines (odds ratio: 1.86; 95% confidence interval: 1.32–2.60), and the Internet (odds ratio: 4.74; 95% confidence interval: 2.70–8.31) and had less trust in cancer-related health information from television (odds ratio: 0.44; 95% confidence interval: 0.32–0.62) and radio (odds ratio: 0.54; 95% confidence interval: 0.34–0.86) compared to those who were not high school graduates. Conclusions/Significance Health media use is patterned by race, ethnicity, language and social class. Providing greater access to and enhancing the quality of health media by taking into account factors associated with social determinants may contribute to addressing social disparities in health. PMID:21267450

Reliability and Validity of the Arthroscopic International Cartilage Repair Society Classification System: Correlation With Histological Assessment of Depth.

PubMed

Dwyer, Tim; Martin, C Ryan; Kendra, Rita; Sermer, Corey; Chahal, Jaskarndip; Ogilvie-Harris, Darrell; Whelan, Daniel; Murnaghan, Lucas; Nauth, Aaron; Theodoropoulos, John

2017-06-01

To determine the interobserver reliability of the International Cartilage Repair Society (ICRS) grading system of chondral lesions in cadavers, to determine the intraobserver reliability of the ICRS grading system comparing arthroscopy and video assessment, and to compare the arthroscopic ICRS grading system with histological grading of lesion depth. Eighteen lesions in 5 cadaveric knee specimens were arthroscopically graded by 7 fellowship-trained arthroscopic surgeons using the ICRS classification system. The arthroscopic video of each lesion was sent to the surgeons 6 weeks later for repeat grading and determination of intraobserver reliability. Lesions were biopsied, and the depth of the cartilage lesion was assessed. Reliability was calculated using intraclass correlations. The interobserver reliability was 0.67 (95% confidence interval, 0.5-0.89) for the arthroscopic grading, and the intraobserver reliability with the video grading was 0.8 (95% confidence interval, 0.67-0.9). A high correlation was seen between the arthroscopic grading of depth and the histological grading of depth (0.91); on average, surgeons graded lesions using arthroscopy a mean of 0.37 (range, 0-0.86) deeper than the histological grade. The arthroscopic ICRS classification system has good interobserver and intraobserver reliability. A high correlation with histological assessment of depth provides evidence of validity for this classification system. As cartilage lesions are treated on the basis of the arthroscopic ICRS classification, it is important to ascertain the reliability and validity of this method. Copyright © 2016 Arthroscopy Association of North America. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Preconceptional and prenatal supplementary folic acid and multivitamin intake and autism spectrum disorders.

PubMed

Virk, Jasveer; Liew, Zeyan; Olsen, Jørn; Nohr, Ellen A; Catov, Janet M; Ritz, Beate

2016-08-01

To evaluate whether early folic acid supplementation during pregnancy prevents diagnosis of autism spectrum disorders in offspring. Information on autism spectrum disorder diagnosis was obtained from the National Hospital Register and the Central Psychiatric Register. We estimated risk ratios for autism spectrum disorders for children whose mothers took folate or multivitamin supplements from 4 weeks prior from the last menstrual period through to 8 weeks after the last menstrual period (-4 to 8 weeks) by three 4-week periods. We did not find an association between early folate or multivitamin intake for autism spectrum disorder (folic acid-adjusted risk ratio: 1.06, 95% confidence interval: 0.82-1.36; multivitamin-adjusted risk ratio: 1.00, 95% confidence interval: 0.82-1.22), autistic disorder (folic acid-adjusted risk ratio: 1.18, 95% confidence interval: 0.76-1.84; multivitamin-adjusted risk ratio: 1.22, 95% confidence interval: 0.87-1.69), Asperger's syndrome (folic acid-adjusted risk ratio: 0.85, 95% confidence interval: 0.46-1.53; multivitamin-adjusted risk ratio: 0.95, 95% confidence interval: 0.62-1.46), or pervasive developmental disorder-not otherwise specified (folic acid-adjusted risk ratio: 1.07, 95% confidence interval: 0.75-1.54; multivitamin: adjusted risk ratio: 0.87, 95% confidence interval: 0.65-1.17) compared with women reporting no supplement use in the same period. We did not find any evidence to corroborate previous reports of a reduced risk for autism spectrum disorders in offspring of women using folic acid supplements in early pregnancy. © The Author(s) 2015.

Development and Validation of a Model to Predict Absolute Vascular Risk Reduction by Moderate-Intensity Statin Therapy in Individual Patients With Type 2 Diabetes Mellitus: The Anglo Scandinavian Cardiac Outcomes Trial, Antihypertensive and Lipid-Lowering Treatment to Prevent Heart Attack Trial, and Collaborative Atorvastatin Diabetes Study.

PubMed

Kaasenbrood, Lotte; Poulter, Neil R; Sever, Peter S; Colhoun, Helen M; Livingstone, Shona J; Boekholdt, S Matthijs; Pressel, Sara L; Davis, Barry R; van der Graaf, Yolanda; Visseren, Frank L J

2016-05-01

In this study, we aimed to translate the average relative effect of statin therapy from trial data to the individual patient with type 2 diabetes mellitus by developing and validating a model to predict individualized absolute risk reductions (ARR) of cardiovascular events. Data of 2725 patients with type 2 diabetes mellitus from the Lipid Lowering Arm of the Anglo Scandinavian Cardiac Outcomes Trial (ASCOT-LLA) study (atorvastatin 10 mg versus placebo) were used for model derivation. The model was based on 8 clinical predictors including treatment allocation (statin/placebo). Ten-year individualized ARR on major cardiovascular events by statin therapy were calculated for each patient by subtracting the estimated on-treatment risk from the estimated off-treatment risk. Predicted 10-year ARR by statin therapy was <2% for 13% of the patients. About 30% had an ARR of >4% (median ARR, 3.2%; interquartile range, 2.5%-4.3%; 95% confidence interval for 3.2% ARR, -1.4% to 6.8%). Addition of treatment interactions did not improve model performance. Therefore, the wide distribution in ARR was a consequence of the underlying distribution in cardiovascular risk enrolled in these trials. External validation of the model was performed in data from the Antihypertensive and Lipid-Lowering Treatment to Prevent Heart Attack Trial (ALLHAT-LLT; pravastatin 40 mg versus usual care) and Collaborative Atorvastatin Diabetes Study (CARDS; atorvastatin 10 mg versus placebo) of 3878 and 2838 patients with type 2 diabetes mellitus, respectively. Model calibration was adequate in both external data sets, discrimination was moderate (ALLHAT-LLT: c-statistics, 0.64 [95% confidence interval, 0.61-0.67] and CARDS: 0.68 [95% confidence interval, 0.64-0.72]). ARRs of major cardiovascular events by statin therapy can be accurately estimated for individual patients with type 2 diabetes mellitus using a model based on routinely available patient characteristics. There is a wide distribution in ARR that may complement informed decision making. URL: http://www.clinicaltrials.gov. Unique identifier: NCT00327418 (CARDS) and NCT00000542 (ALLHAT). © 2016 American Heart Association, Inc.

Applying Bootstrap Resampling to Compute Confidence Intervals for Various Statistics with R

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Dogan, C. Deha

2017-01-01

Background: Most of the studies in academic journals use p values to represent statistical significance. However, this is not a good indicator of practical significance. Although confidence intervals provide information about the precision of point estimation, they are, unfortunately, rarely used. The infrequent use of confidence intervals might…

Reporting Confidence Intervals and Effect Sizes: Collecting the Evidence

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Zientek, Linda Reichwein; Ozel, Z. Ebrar Yetkiner; Ozel, Serkan; Allen, Jeff

2012-01-01

Confidence intervals (CIs) and effect sizes are essential to encourage meta-analytic thinking and to accumulate research findings. CIs provide a range of plausible values for population parameters with a degree of confidence that the parameter is in that particular interval. CIs also give information about how precise the estimates are. Comparison…

Confidence Intervals for Effect Sizes: Applying Bootstrap Resampling

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Banjanovic, Erin S.; Osborne, Jason W.

2016-01-01

Confidence intervals for effect sizes (CIES) provide readers with an estimate of the strength of a reported statistic as well as the relative precision of the point estimate. These statistics offer more information and context than null hypothesis statistic testing. Although confidence intervals have been recommended by scholars for many years,…

Bootstrap Confidence Intervals for Ordinary Least Squares Factor Loadings and Correlations in Exploratory Factor Analysis

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Zhang, Guangjian; Preacher, Kristopher J.; Luo, Shanhong

2010-01-01

This article is concerned with using the bootstrap to assign confidence intervals for rotated factor loadings and factor correlations in ordinary least squares exploratory factor analysis. Coverage performances of "SE"-based intervals, percentile intervals, bias-corrected percentile intervals, bias-corrected accelerated percentile…

Accuracy in parameter estimation for targeted effects in structural equation modeling: sample size planning for narrow confidence intervals.

PubMed

Lai, Keke; Kelley, Ken

2011-06-01

In addition to evaluating a structural equation model (SEM) as a whole, often the model parameters are of interest and confidence intervals for those parameters are formed. Given a model with a good overall fit, it is entirely possible for the targeted effects of interest to have very wide confidence intervals, thus giving little information about the magnitude of the population targeted effects. With the goal of obtaining sufficiently narrow confidence intervals for the model parameters of interest, sample size planning methods for SEM are developed from the accuracy in parameter estimation approach. One method plans for the sample size so that the expected confidence interval width is sufficiently narrow. An extended procedure ensures that the obtained confidence interval will be no wider than desired, with some specified degree of assurance. A Monte Carlo simulation study was conducted that verified the effectiveness of the procedures in realistic situations. The methods developed have been implemented in the MBESS package in R so that they can be easily applied by researchers. © 2011 American Psychological Association

Locating the Seventh Cervical Spinous Process: Development and Validation of a Multivariate Model Using Palpation and Personal Information.

PubMed

Ferreira, Ana Paula A; Póvoa, Luciana C; Zanier, José F C; Ferreira, Arthur S

2017-02-01

The aim of this study was to develop and validate a multivariate prediction model, guided by palpation and personal information, for locating the seventh cervical spinous process (C7SP). A single-blinded, cross-sectional study at a primary to tertiary health care center was conducted for model development and temporal validation. One-hundred sixty participants were prospectively included for model development (n = 80) and time-split validation stages (n = 80). The C7SP was located using the thorax-rib static method (TRSM). Participants underwent chest radiography for assessment of the inner body structure located with TRSM and using radio-opaque markers placed over the skin. Age, sex, height, body mass, body mass index, and vertex-marker distance (D V-M ) were used to predict the distance from the C7SP to the vertex (D V-C7 ). Multivariate linear regression modeling, limits of agreement plot, histogram of residues, receiver operating characteristic curves, and confusion tables were analyzed. The multivariate linear prediction model for D V-C7 (in centimeters) was D V-C7 = 0.986D V-M + 0.018(mass) + 0.014(age) - 1.008. Receiver operating characteristic curves had better discrimination of D V-C7 (area under the curve = 0.661; 95% confidence interval = 0.541-0.782; P = .015) than D V-M (area under the curve = 0.480; 95% confidence interval = 0.345-0.614; P = .761), with respective cutoff points at 23.40 cm (sensitivity = 41%, specificity = 63%) and 24.75 cm (sensitivity = 69%, specificity = 52%). The C7SP was correctly located more often when using predicted D V-C7 in the validation sample than when using the TRSM in the development sample: n = 53 (66%) vs n = 32 (40%), P < .001. Better accuracy was obtained when locating the C7SP by use of a multivariate model that incorporates palpation and personal information. Copyright © 2016. Published by Elsevier Inc.

The QT Interval and Risk of Incident Atrial Fibrillation

PubMed Central

Mandyam, Mala C.; Soliman, Elsayed Z.; Alonso, Alvaro; Dewland, Thomas A.; Heckbert, Susan R.; Vittinghoff, Eric; Cummings, Steven R.; Ellinor, Patrick T.; Chaitman, Bernard R.; Stocke, Karen; Applegate, William B.; Arking, Dan E.; Butler, Javed; Loehr, Laura R.; Magnani, Jared W.; Murphy, Rachel A.; Satterfield, Suzanne; Newman, Anne B.; Marcus, Gregory M.

2013-01-01

BACKGROUND Abnormal atrial repolarization is important in the development of atrial fibrillation (AF), but no direct measurement is available in clinical medicine. OBJECTIVE To determine whether the QT interval, a marker of ventricular repolarization, could be used to predict incident AF. METHODS We examined a prolonged QT corrected by the Framingham formula (QTFram) as a predictor of incident AF in the Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities (ARIC) study. The Cardiovascular Health Study (CHS) and Health, Aging, and Body Composition (Health ABC) study were used for validation. Secondary predictors included QT duration as a continuous variable, a short QT interval, and QT intervals corrected by other formulae. RESULTS Among 14,538 ARIC participants, a prolonged QTFram predicted a roughly two-fold increased risk of AF (hazard ratio [HR] 2.05, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.42–2.96, p<0.001). No substantive attenuation was observed after adjustment for age, race, sex, study center, body mass index, hypertension, diabetes, coronary disease, and heart failure. The findings were validated in CHS and Health ABC and were similar across various QT correction methods. Also in ARIC, each 10-ms increase in QTFram was associated with an increased unadjusted (HR 1.14, 95%CI 1.10–1.17, p<0.001) and adjusted (HR 1.11, 95%CI 1.07–1.14, p<0.001) risk of AF. Findings regarding a short QT were inconsistent across cohorts. CONCLUSIONS A prolonged QT interval is associated with an increased risk of incident AF. PMID:23872693

Commentary on Holmes et al. (2007): resolving the debate on when extinction risk is predictable.

PubMed

Ellner, Stephen P; Holmes, Elizabeth E

2008-08-01

We reconcile the findings of Holmes et al. (Ecology Letters, 10, 2007, 1182) that 95% confidence intervals for quasi-extinction risk were narrow for many vertebrates of conservation concern, with previous theory predicting wide confidence intervals. We extend previous theory, concerning the precision of quasi-extinction estimates as a function of population dynamic parameters, prediction intervals and quasi-extinction thresholds, and provide an approximation that specifies the prediction interval and threshold combinations where quasi-extinction estimates are precise (vs. imprecise). This allows PVA practitioners to define the prediction interval and threshold regions of safety (low risk with high confidence), danger (high risk with high confidence), and uncertainty.

Maternal and neonatal outcomes of antenatal anemia in a Scottish population: a retrospective cohort study.

PubMed

Rukuni, Ruramayi; Bhattacharya, Sohinee; Murphy, Michael F; Roberts, David; Stanworth, Simon J; Knight, Marian

2016-05-01

Antenatal anemia is a major public health problem in the UK, yet there is limited high quality evidence for associated poor clinical outcomes. The objectives of this study were to estimate the incidence and clinical outcomes of antenatal anemia in a Scottish population. A retrospective cohort study of 80 422 singleton pregnancies was conducted using data from the Aberdeen Maternal and Neonatal Databank between 1995 and 2012. Antenatal anemia was defined as haemoglobin ≤ 10 g/dl during pregnancy. Incidence was calculated with 95% confidence intervals and compared over time using a chi-squared test for trend. Multivariable logistic regression was used to adjust for confounding variables. Results are presented as adjusted odds ratios with 95% confidence interval. The overall incidence of antenatal anemia was 9.3 cases/100 singleton pregnancies (95% confidence interval 9.1-9.5), decreasing from 16.9/100 to 4.1/100 singleton pregnancies between 1995 and 2012 (p < 0.001). Maternal anemia was associated with antepartum hemorrhage (adjusted odds ratio 1.26, 95% confidence interval 1.17-1.36), postpartum infection (adjusted odds ratio 1.89, 95% confidence interval 1.39-2.57), transfusion (adjusted odds ratio 1.87, 95% confidence interval 1.65-2.13) and stillbirth (adjusted odds ratio 1.42, 95% confidence interval 1.04-1.94), reduced odds of postpartum hemorrhage (adjusted odds ratio 0.92, 95% confidence interval 0.86-0.98) and low birthweight (adjusted odds ratio 0.77, 95% confidence interval 0.69-0.86). No other outcomes were statistically significant. This study shows the incidence of antenatal anemia is decreasing steadily within this Scottish population. However, given that anemia is a readily correctable risk factor for major causes of morbidity and mortality in the UK, further work is required to investigate appropriate preventive measures. © 2016 Nordic Federation of Societies of Obstetrics and Gynecology.

Opioid analgesia in mechanically ventilated children: results from the multicenter Measuring Opioid Tolerance Induced by Fentanyl study.

PubMed

Anand, Kanwaljeet J S; Clark, Amy E; Willson, Douglas F; Berger, John; Meert, Kathleen L; Zimmerman, Jerry J; Harrison, Rick; Carcillo, Joseph A; Newth, Christopher J L; Bisping, Stephanie; Holubkov, Richard; Dean, J Michael; Nicholson, Carol E

2013-01-01

To examine the clinical factors associated with increased opioid dose among mechanically ventilated children in the pediatric intensive care unit. Prospective, observational study with 100% accrual of eligible patients. Seven pediatric intensive care units from tertiary-care children's hospitals in the Collaborative Pediatric Critical Care Research Network. Four hundred nineteen children treated with morphine or fentanyl infusions. None. Data on opioid use, concomitant therapy, demographic and explanatory variables were collected. Significant variability occurred in clinical practices, with up to 100-fold differences in baseline opioid doses, average daily or total doses, or peak infusion rates. Opioid exposure for 7 or 14 days required doubling of the daily opioid dose in 16% patients (95% confidence interval 12%-19%) and 20% patients (95% confidence interval 16%-24%), respectively. Among patients receiving opioids for longer than 3 days (n = 225), this occurred in 28% (95% confidence interval 22%-33%) and 35% (95% confidence interval 29%-41%) by 7 or 14 days, respectively. Doubling of the opioid dose was more likely to occur following opioid infusions for 7 days or longer (odds ratio 7.9, 95% confidence interval 4.3-14.3; p < 0.001) or co-therapy with midazolam (odds ratio 5.6, 95% confidence interval 2.4-12.9; p < 0.001), and it was less likely to occur if morphine was used as the primary opioid (vs. fentanyl) (odds ratio 0.48, 95% confidence interval 0.25-0.92; p = 0.03), for patients receiving higher initial doses (odds ratio 0.96, 95% confidence interval 0.95-0.98; p < 0.001), or if patients had prior pediatric intensive care unit admissions (odds ratio 0.37, 95% confidence interval 0.15-0.89; p = 0.03). Mechanically ventilated children require increasing opioid doses, often associated with prolonged opioid exposure or the need for additional sedation. Efforts to reduce prolonged opioid exposure and clinical practice variation may prevent the complications of opioid therapy.

External validation of a 5-year survival prediction model after elective abdominal aortic aneurysm repair.

PubMed

DeMartino, Randall R; Huang, Ying; Mandrekar, Jay; Goodney, Philip P; Oderich, Gustavo S; Kalra, Manju; Bower, Thomas C; Cronenwett, Jack L; Gloviczki, Peter

2018-01-01

The benefit of prophylactic repair of abdominal aortic aneurysms (AAAs) is based on the risk of rupture exceeding the risk of death from other comorbidities. The purpose of this study was to validate a 5-year survival prediction model for patients undergoing elective repair of asymptomatic AAA <6.5 cm to assist in optimal selection of patients. All patients undergoing elective repair for asymptomatic AAA <6.5 cm (open or endovascular) from 2002 to 2011 were identified from a single institutional database (validation group). We assessed the ability of a prior published Vascular Study Group of New England (VSGNE) model (derivation group) to predict survival in our cohort. The model was assessed for discrimination (concordance index), calibration (calibration slope and calibration in the large), and goodness of fit (score test). The VSGNE derivation group consisted of 2367 patients (70% endovascular). Major factors associated with survival in the derivation group were age, coronary disease, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, renal function, and antiplatelet and statin medication use. Our validation group consisted of 1038 patients (59% endovascular). The validation group was slightly older (74 vs 72 years; P < .01) and had a higher proportion of men (76% vs 68%; P < .01). In addition, the derivation group had higher rates of advanced cardiac disease, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, and baseline creatinine concentration (1.2 vs 1.1 mg/dL; P < .01). Despite slight differences in preoperative patient factors, 5-year survival was similar between validation and derivation groups (75% vs 77%; P = .33). The concordance index of the validation group was identical between derivation and validation groups at 0.659 (95% confidence interval, 0.63-0.69). Our validation calibration in the large value was 1.02 (P = .62, closer to 1 indicating better calibration), calibration slope of 0.84 (95% confidence interval, 0.71-0.97), and score test of P = .57 (>.05 indicating goodness of fit). Across different populations of patients, assessment of age and level of cardiac, pulmonary, and renal disease can accurately predict 5-year survival in patients with AAA <6.5 cm undergoing repair. This risk prediction model is a valid method to assess mortality risk in determining potential overall survival benefit from elective AAA repair. Copyright © 2017 Society for Vascular Surgery. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Web-based education in systems-based practice: a randomized trial.

PubMed

Kerfoot, B Price; Conlin, Paul R; Travison, Thomas; McMahon, Graham T

2007-02-26

All accredited US residency programs are expected to offer curricula and evaluate their residents in 6 general competencies. Medical schools are now adopting similar competency frameworks. We investigated whether a Web-based program could effectively teach and assess elements of systems-based practice. We enrolled 276 medical students and 417 residents in the fields of surgery, medicine, obstetrics-gynecology, and emergency medicine in a 9-week randomized, controlled, crossover educational trial. Participants were asked to sequentially complete validated Web-based modules on patient safety and the US health care system. The primary outcome measure was performance on a 26-item validated online test administered before, between, and after the participants completed the modules. Six hundred forty (92.4%) of the 693 enrollees participated in the study; 512 (80.0%) of the participants completed all 3 tests. Participants' test scores improved significantly after completion of the first module (P<.001). Overall learning from the 9-week Web-based program, as measured by the increase in scores (posttest scores minus pretest scores), was 16 percentage points (95% confidence interval, 14-17 percentage points; P<.001) in public safety topics and 22 percentage points (95% confidence interval, 20-23 percentage points; P<.001) in US health care system topics. A Web-based educational program on systems-based practice competencies generated significant and durable learning across a broad range of medical students and residents.

Biomarker validation of self-reported sex among middle-aged female sex workers in China.

PubMed

Guida, Jennifer; Fukunaga, Ami; Liu, Hongjie

2017-03-01

The objective of this study was to examine information bias arising from self-reported sexual activity and its association with syphilitic infections among female sex workers (FSWs) aged 35 years and older in China. A questionnaire was administered to 1245 middle-aged FSWs. Respondents self-reported sexual intercourse in the past 48 hours. The prostate-specific antigen test was used to verify self-reported sexual activity. FSWs were considered discordant if they indicated no sexual intercourse in the past 48 hours on the questionnaire and had a positive prostate-specific antigen test. Logistic regression was used to assess the associations between discordance and syphilis. Three hundred twenty FSWs self-reported no engagement in sexual intercourse in the past 48 hours. One-fourth of respondents (25%) were discordant. Twenty-two percent and 35.8% of discordant FSWs tested positive for active and prevalent syphilis, respectively. After adjusting for confounders, discordant FSWs had 3.8 times the odds of active syphilis (95% confidence interval: 1.52-9.30) and 2.6 times the odds of prevalent syphilis (95% confidence interval: 1.37-5.02), compared with concordant FSWs. FSWs who had active or prevalent syphilis were more likely to be discordant. Data collected via self-reported questionnaire may not be a valid tool to assess sexual behavior. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Building a Decision Support System for Inpatient Admission Prediction With the Manchester Triage System and Administrative Check-in Variables.

PubMed

Zlotnik, Alexander; Alfaro, Miguel Cuchí; Pérez, María Carmen Pérez; Gallardo-Antolín, Ascensión; Martínez, Juan Manuel Montero

2016-05-01

The usage of decision support tools in emergency departments, based on predictive models, capable of estimating the probability of admission for patients in the emergency department may give nursing staff the possibility of allocating resources in advance. We present a methodology for developing and building one such system for a large specialized care hospital using a logistic regression and an artificial neural network model using nine routinely collected variables available right at the end of the triage process.A database of 255.668 triaged nonobstetric emergency department presentations from the Ramon y Cajal University Hospital of Madrid, from January 2011 to December 2012, was used to develop and test the models, with 66% of the data used for derivation and 34% for validation, with an ordered nonrandom partition. On the validation dataset areas under the receiver operating characteristic curve were 0.8568 (95% confidence interval, 0.8508-0.8583) for the logistic regression model and 0.8575 (95% confidence interval, 0.8540-0. 8610) for the artificial neural network model. χ Values for Hosmer-Lemeshow fixed "deciles of risk" were 65.32 for the logistic regression model and 17.28 for the artificial neural network model. A nomogram was generated upon the logistic regression model and an automated software decision support system with a Web interface was built based on the artificial neural network model.

The regression discontinuity design showed to be a valid alternative to a randomized controlled trial for estimating treatment effects.

PubMed

Maas, Iris L; Nolte, Sandra; Walter, Otto B; Berger, Thomas; Hautzinger, Martin; Hohagen, Fritz; Lutz, Wolfgang; Meyer, Björn; Schröder, Johanna; Späth, Christina; Klein, Jan Philipp; Moritz, Steffen; Rose, Matthias

2017-02-01

To compare treatment effect estimates obtained from a regression discontinuity (RD) design with results from an actual randomized controlled trial (RCT). Data from an RCT (EVIDENT), which studied the effect of an Internet intervention on depressive symptoms measured with the Patient Health Questionnaire (PHQ-9), were used to perform an RD analysis, in which treatment allocation was determined by a cutoff value at baseline (PHQ-9 = 10). A linear regression model was fitted to the data, selecting participants above the cutoff who had received the intervention (n = 317) and control participants below the cutoff (n = 187). Outcome was PHQ-9 sum score 12 weeks after baseline. Robustness of the effect estimate was studied; the estimate was compared with the RCT treatment effect. The final regression model showed a regression coefficient of -2.29 [95% confidence interval (CI): -3.72 to -.85] compared with a treatment effect found in the RCT of -1.57 (95% CI: -2.07 to -1.07). Although the estimates obtained from two designs are not equal, their confidence intervals overlap, suggesting that an RD design can be a valid alternative for RCTs. This finding is particularly important for situations where an RCT may not be feasible or ethical as is often the case in clinical research settings. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Validation of the Vaccination Confidence Scale: A brief measure to identify parents at risk for refusing adolescent vaccines

PubMed Central

Reiter, Paul L.; Magnus, Brooke E.; McRee, Annie-Laurie; Dempsey, Amanda F.; Brewer, Noel T.

2015-01-01

Objective To support efforts to address vaccine hesitancy, we sought to validate a brief measure of vaccination confidence using a large, nationally representative sample of parents. Methods We analyzed weighted data from 9,018 parents who completed the 2010 National Immunization Survey-Teen, an annual, population-based telephone survey. Parents reported on the immunization history of a 13- to 17-year-old child in their households for vaccines including tetanus, diphtheria, and acellular pertussis (Tdap), meningococcal, and human papillomavirus (HPV) vaccines. For each vaccine, separate logistic regression models assessed associations between parents’ mean scores on the 8-item Vaccination Confidence Scale and vaccine refusal, vaccine delay, and vaccination status. We repeated analyses for the scale’s 4-item short form. Results One quarter of parents (24%) reported refusal of any vaccine, with refusal of specific vaccines ranging from 21% for HPV to 2% for Tdap. Using the full 8-item scale, vaccination confidence was negatively associated with measures of vaccine refusal and positively associated with measures of vaccination status. For example, refusal of any vaccine was more common among parents whose scale scores were medium (odds ratio [OR] = 2.08, 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.75–2.47) or low (OR = 4.61, 95% CI, 3.51–6.05) versus high. For the 4-item short form, scores were also consistently associated with vaccine refusal and vaccination status. Vaccination confidence was inconsistently associated with vaccine delay. Conclusions The Vaccination Confidence Scale shows promise as a tool for identifying parents at risk for refusing adolescent vaccines. The scale’s short form appears to offer comparable performance. PMID:26300368

Confidence Intervals for the Mean: To Bootstrap or Not to Bootstrap

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Calzada, Maria E.; Gardner, Holly

2011-01-01

The results of a simulation conducted by a research team involving undergraduate and high school students indicate that when data is symmetric the student's "t" confidence interval for a mean is superior to the studied non-parametric bootstrap confidence intervals. When data is skewed and for sample sizes n greater than or equal to 10,…

Confidence Intervals Make a Difference: Effects of Showing Confidence Intervals on Inferential Reasoning

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Hoekstra, Rink; Johnson, Addie; Kiers, Henk A. L.

2012-01-01

The use of confidence intervals (CIs) as an addition or as an alternative to null hypothesis significance testing (NHST) has been promoted as a means to make researchers more aware of the uncertainty that is inherent in statistical inference. Little is known, however, about whether presenting results via CIs affects how readers judge the…

Using Asymptotic Results to Obtain a Confidence Interval for the Population Median

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Jamshidian, M.; Khatoonabadi, M.

2007-01-01

Almost all introductory and intermediate level statistics textbooks include the topic of confidence interval for the population mean. Almost all these texts introduce the median as a robust measure of central tendency. Only a few of these books, however, cover inference on the population median and in particular confidence interval for the median.…

ScoreRel CI: An Excel Program for Computing Confidence Intervals for Commonly Used Score Reliability Coefficients

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Barnette, J. Jackson

2005-01-01

An Excel program developed to assist researchers in the determination and presentation of confidence intervals around commonly used score reliability coefficients is described. The software includes programs to determine confidence intervals for Cronbachs alpha, Pearson r-based coefficients such as those used in test-retest and alternate forms…

Confidence intervals from single observations in forest research

Treesearch

Harry T. Valentine; George M. Furnival; Timothy G. Gregoire

1991-01-01

A procedure for constructing confidence intervals and testing hypothese from a single trial or observation is reviewed. The procedure requires a prior, fixed estimate or guess of the outcome of an experiment or sampling. Two examples of applications are described: a confidence interval is constructed for the expected outcome of a systematic sampling of a forested tract...

Sample size determination for disease prevalence studies with partially validated data.

PubMed

Qiu, Shi-Fang; Poon, Wai-Yin; Tang, Man-Lai

2016-02-01

Disease prevalence is an important topic in medical research, and its study is based on data that are obtained by classifying subjects according to whether a disease has been contracted. Classification can be conducted with high-cost gold standard tests or low-cost screening tests, but the latter are subject to the misclassification of subjects. As a compromise between the two, many research studies use partially validated datasets in which all data points are classified by fallible tests, and some of the data points are validated in the sense that they are also classified by the completely accurate gold-standard test. In this article, we investigate the determination of sample sizes for disease prevalence studies with partially validated data. We use two approaches. The first is to find sample sizes that can achieve a pre-specified power of a statistical test at a chosen significance level, and the second is to find sample sizes that can control the width of a confidence interval with a pre-specified confidence level. Empirical studies have been conducted to demonstrate the performance of various testing procedures with the proposed sample sizes. The applicability of the proposed methods are illustrated by a real-data example. © The Author(s) 2012.

Depressive symptoms in nonresident african american fathers and involvement with their sons.

PubMed

Davis, R Neal; Caldwell, Cleopatra Howard; Clark, Sarah J; Davis, Matthew M

2009-12-01

Our objective was to determine whether paternal depressive symptoms were associated with less father involvement among African American fathers not living with their children (ie, nonresident fathers). We analyzed survey data for 345 fathers enrolled in a program for nonresident African American fathers and their preteen sons. Father involvement included measures of contact, closeness, monitoring, communication, and conflict. We used bivariate analyses and multivariate logistic regression analysis to examine associations between father involvement and depressive symptoms. Thirty-six percent of fathers reported moderate depressive symptoms, and 11% reported severe depressive symptoms. In bivariate analyses, depressive symptoms were associated with less contact, less closeness, low monitoring, and increased conflict. In multivariate analyses controlling for basic demographic features, fathers with moderate depressive symptoms were more likely to have less contact (adjusted odds ratio: 1.7 [95% confidence interval: 1.1-2.8]), less closeness (adjusted odds ratio: 2.1 [95% confidence interval: 1.3-3.5]), low monitoring (adjusted odds ratio: 2.7 [95% confidence interval: 1.4-5.2]), and high conflict (adjusted odds ratio: 2.1 [95% confidence interval: 1.2-3.6]). Fathers with severe depressive symptoms also were more likely to have less contact (adjusted odds ratio: 3.1 [95% confidence interval: 1.4-7.2]), less closeness (adjusted odds ratio: 2.6 [95% confidence interval: 1.2-5.7]), low monitoring (adjusted odds ratio: 2.8 [95% confidence interval: 1.1-7.1]), and high conflict (adjusted odds ratio: 2.6 [95% confidence interval: 1.1-5.9]). Paternal depressive symptoms may be an important, but modifiable, barrier for nonresident African American fathers willing to be more involved with their children.

Ethnic variations in morbidity and mortality from lower respiratory tract infections: a retrospective cohort study.

PubMed

Simpson, Colin R; Steiner, Markus Fc; Cezard, Genevieve; Bansal, Narinder; Fischbacher, Colin; Douglas, Anne; Bhopal, Raj; Sheikh, Aziz

2015-10-01

There is evidence of substantial ethnic variations in asthma morbidity and the risk of hospitalisation, but the picture in relation to lower respiratory tract infections is unclear. We carried out an observational study to identify ethnic group differences for lower respiratory tract infections. A retrospective, cohort study. Scotland. 4.65 million people on whom information was available from the 2001 census, followed from May 2001 to April 2010. Hospitalisations and deaths (any time following first hospitalisation) from lower respiratory tract infections, adjusted risk ratios and hazard ratios by ethnicity and sex were calculated. We multiplied ratios and confidence intervals by 100, so the reference Scottish White population's risk ratio and hazard ratio was 100. Among men, adjusted risk ratios for lower respiratory tract infection hospitalisation were lower in Other White British (80, 95% confidence interval 73-86) and Chinese (69, 95% confidence interval 56-84) populations and higher in Pakistani groups (152, 95% confidence interval 136-169). In women, results were mostly similar to those in men (e.g. Chinese 68, 95% confidence interval 56-82), although higher adjusted risk ratios were found among women of the Other South Asians group (145, 95% confidence interval 120-175). Survival (adjusted hazard ratio) following lower respiratory tract infection for Pakistani men (54, 95% confidence interval 39-74) and women (31, 95% confidence interval 18-53) was better than the reference population. Substantial differences in the rates of lower respiratory tract infections amongst different ethnic groups in Scotland were found. Pakistani men and women had particularly high rates of lower respiratory tract infection hospitalisation. The reasons behind the high rates of lower respiratory tract infection in the Pakistani community are now required. © The Royal Society of Medicine.

Risk factors of childhood asthma in children attending Lyari General Hospital.

PubMed

Kamran, Amber; Hanif, Shahina; Murtaza, Ghulam

2015-06-01

To determine the factors associated with asthma in children. The case-control study was conducted in the paediatrics clinic of Lyari General Hospital, Karachi, from May to October 2010. Children 1-15 years of age attending the clinic represented the cases, while the control group had children who were closely related (sibling or cousin) to the cases but did not have the symptoms of disease at the time. Data was collected through a proforma and analysed using SPSS 10. Of the total 346 subjects, 173(50%) each comprised the two groups. According to univariable analysis the risk factors were presence of at least one smoker (odds ratio: 3.6; 95% confidence interval: 2.3-5.8), resident of kacha house (odds ratio: 16.2; 95% confidence interval: 3.8-69.5),living in room without windows (odds ratio: 9.3; 95% confidence interval: 2.1-40.9) and living in houses without adequate sunlight (odds ratio: 1.6; 95% confidence interval: 1.2-2.4).Using multivariable modelling, family history of asthma (odds ratio: 5.9; 95% confidence interval: 3.1-11.6), presence of at least one smoker at home (odds ratio: 4.1; 95% confidence interval: 2.3-7.2), people living in a room without a window (odds ratio: 5.5; 95% confidence interval: 1.15-26.3) and people living in an area without adequate sunlight (odds ratio: 2.2; 95% confidence interval: 1.13-4.31) were found to be independent risk factors of asthma in children adjusting for age, gender and history of weaning. Family history of asthma, children living with at least one smoker at home, room without windows and people living in an area without sunlight were major risk factors of childhood asthma.

Reproducibility and validity of the Dutch translation of the de Morton Mobility Index (DEMMI) used by physiotherapists in older patients with knee or hip osteoarthritis.

PubMed

Jans, Marielle P; Slootweg, Vera C; Boot, Cecile R; de Morton, Natalie A; van der Sluis, Geert; van Meeteren, Nico L

2011-11-01

To examine the reproducibility, construct validity, and unidimensionality of the Dutch translation of the de Morton Mobility Index (DEMMI), a performance-based measure of mobility for older patients. Cross-sectional study. Rehabilitation center (reproducibility study) and hospital (validity study). Patients (N=28; age >65y) after orthopedic surgery (reproducibility study) and patients (N=219; age >65y) waiting for total hip or total knee arthroplasty (validity study). Not applicable. Not applicable. The intraclass correlation coefficient for interrater reliability was high (.85; 95% confidence interval, 71-.93), and minimal detectable change with 90% confidence was 7 on the 100-point DEMMI scale. Rasch analysis identified that the Dutch translation of the DEMMI is a unidimensional measure of mobility in this population. DEMMI scores showed high correlations with scores on other performance-based measures of mobility (Timed Up and Go test, Spearman r=-.73; Chair Rise Time, r=-.69; walking test, r=.74). A lower correlation of .44 was identified with the self-report measure Western Ontario and McMaster Universities Osteoarthritis Index. The Dutch translation of the DEMMI is a reproducible and valid performance-based measure for assessing mobility in older patients with knee or hip osteoarthritis. Copyright © 2011 American Congress of Rehabilitation Medicine. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Standardized likelihood ratio test for comparing several log-normal means and confidence interval for the common mean.

PubMed

Krishnamoorthy, K; Oral, Evrim

2017-12-01

Standardized likelihood ratio test (SLRT) for testing the equality of means of several log-normal distributions is proposed. The properties of the SLRT and an available modified likelihood ratio test (MLRT) and a generalized variable (GV) test are evaluated by Monte Carlo simulation and compared. Evaluation studies indicate that the SLRT is accurate even for small samples, whereas the MLRT could be quite liberal for some parameter values, and the GV test is in general conservative and less powerful than the SLRT. Furthermore, a closed-form approximate confidence interval for the common mean of several log-normal distributions is developed using the method of variance estimate recovery, and compared with the generalized confidence interval with respect to coverage probabilities and precision. Simulation studies indicate that the proposed confidence interval is accurate and better than the generalized confidence interval in terms of coverage probabilities. The methods are illustrated using two examples.

Calculation of Confidence Intervals for the Maximum Magnitude of Earthquakes in Different Seismotectonic Zones of Iran

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Salamat, Mona; Zare, Mehdi; Holschneider, Matthias; Zöller, Gert

2017-03-01

The problem of estimating the maximum possible earthquake magnitude m_max has attracted growing attention in recent years. Due to sparse data, the role of uncertainties becomes crucial. In this work, we determine the uncertainties related to the maximum magnitude in terms of confidence intervals. Using an earthquake catalog of Iran, m_max is estimated for different predefined levels of confidence in six seismotectonic zones. Assuming the doubly truncated Gutenberg-Richter distribution as a statistical model for earthquake magnitudes, confidence intervals for the maximum possible magnitude of earthquakes are calculated in each zone. While the lower limit of the confidence interval is the magnitude of the maximum observed event,the upper limit is calculated from the catalog and the statistical model. For this aim, we use the original catalog which no declustering methods applied on as well as a declustered version of the catalog. Based on the study by Holschneider et al. (Bull Seismol Soc Am 101(4):1649-1659, 2011), the confidence interval for m_max is frequently unbounded, especially if high levels of confidence are required. In this case, no information is gained from the data. Therefore, we elaborate for which settings finite confidence levels are obtained. In this work, Iran is divided into six seismotectonic zones, namely Alborz, Azerbaijan, Zagros, Makran, Kopet Dagh, Central Iran. Although calculations of the confidence interval in Central Iran and Zagros seismotectonic zones are relatively acceptable for meaningful levels of confidence, results in Kopet Dagh, Alborz, Azerbaijan and Makran are not that much promising. The results indicate that estimating m_max from an earthquake catalog for reasonable levels of confidence alone is almost impossible.

Risk factors for low birth weight according to the multiple logistic regression model. A retrospective cohort study in José María Morelos municipality, Quintana Roo, Mexico.

PubMed

Franco Monsreal, José; Tun Cobos, Miriam Del Ruby; Hernández Gómez, José Ricardo; Serralta Peraza, Lidia Esther Del Socorro

2018-01-17

Low birth weight has been an enigma for science over time. There have been many researches on its causes and its effects. Low birth weight is an indicator that predicts the probability of a child surviving. In fact, there is an exponential relationship between weight deficit, gestational age, and perinatal mortality. Multiple logistic regression is one of the most expressive and versatile statistical instruments available for the analysis of data in both clinical and epidemiology settings, as well as in public health. To assess in a multivariate fashion the importance of 17 independent variables in low birth weight (dependent variable) of children born in the Mayan municipality of José María Morelos, Quintana Roo, Mexico. Analytical observational epidemiological cohort study with retrospective temporality. Births that met the inclusion criteria occurred in the "Hospital Integral Jose Maria Morelos" of the Ministry of Health corresponding to the Maya municipality of Jose Maria Morelos during the period from August 1, 2014 to July 31, 2015. The total number of newborns recorded was 1,147; 84 of which (7.32%) had low birth weight. To estimate the independent association between the explanatory variables (potential risk factors) and the response variable, a multiple logistic regression analysis was performed using the IBM SPSS Statistics 22 software. In ascending numerical order values of odds ratio > 1 indicated the positive contribution of explanatory variables or possible risk factors: "unmarried" marital status (1.076, 95% confidence interval: 0.550 to 2.104); age at menarche ≤ 12 years (1.08, 95% confidence interval: 0.64 to 1.84); history of abortion(s) (1.14, 95% confidence interval: 0.44 to 2.93); maternal weight < 50 kg (1.51, 95% confidence interval: 0.83 to 2.76); number of prenatal consultations ≤ 5 (1.86, 95% confidence interval: 0.94 to 3.66); maternal age ≥ 36 years (3.5, 95% confidence interval: 0.40 to 30.47); maternal age ≤ 19 years (3.59, 95% confidence interval: 0.43 to 29.87); number of deliveries = 1 (3.86, 95% confidence interval: 0.33 to 44.85); personal pathological history (4.78, 95% confidence interval: 2.16 to 10.59); pathological obstetric history (5.01, 95% confidence interval: 1.66 to 15.18); maternal height < 150 cm (5.16, 95% confidence interval: 3.08 to 8.65); number of births ≥ 5 (5.99, 95% confidence interval: 0.51 to 69.99); and smoking (15.63, 95% confidence interval: 1.07 to 227.97). Four of the independent variables (personal pathological history, obstetric pathological history, maternal stature <150 centimeters and smoking) showed a significant positive contribution, thus they can be considered as clear risk factors for low birth weight. The use of the logistic regression model in the Mayan municipality of José María Morelos, will allow estimating the probability of low birth weight for each pregnant woman in the future, which will be useful for the health authorities of the region.

Objectively measured short sleep duration and later sleep midpoint in pregnancy are associated with a higher risk of gestational diabetes.

PubMed

Facco, Francesca L; Grobman, William A; Reid, Kathryn J; Parker, Corette B; Hunter, Shannon M; Silver, Robert M; Basner, Robert C; Saade, George R; Pien, Grace W; Manchanda, Shalini; Louis, Judette M; Nhan-Chang, Chia-Ling; Chung, Judith H; Wing, Deborah A; Simhan, Hyagriv N; Haas, David M; Iams, Jay; Parry, Samuel; Zee, Phyllis C

2017-10-01

Experimental and epidemiologic data suggest that among nonpregnant adults, sleep duration may be an important risk factor for chronic disease. Although pregnant women commonly report poor sleep, few studies objectively evaluated the quality of sleep in pregnancy or explored the relationship between sleep disturbances and maternal and perinatal outcomes. Our objective was to examine the relationship between objectively assessed sleep duration, timing, and continuity (measured via wrist actigraphy) and maternal cardiovascular and metabolic morbidity specific to pregnancy. This was a prospective cohort study of nulliparous women. Women were recruited between 16 0/7 and 21 6/7 weeks' gestation. They were asked to wear a wrist actigraphy monitor and complete a daily sleep log for a period of 7 consecutive days. The primary sleep exposure variables were the averages of the following over the total valid nights (minimum 5, maximum 7 nights): short sleep duration during the primary sleep period (<7 h/night), late sleep midpoint (midpoint between sleep onset and sleep offset >5 am), and top quartile of minutes of wake time after sleep onset and sleep fragmentation index. The primary outcomes of interest were a composite of hypertensive disorders of pregnancy (mild, severe, or superimposed preeclampsia; eclampsia; or antepartum gestational hypertension) and gestational diabetes mellitus. We used χ 2 tests to assess associations between sleep variables and categorical baseline characteristics. Crude odds ratios and 95% confidence intervals were estimated from univariate logistic regression models to characterize the magnitude of the relationship between sleep characteristics and hypertensive disorders of pregnancy and gestational diabetes. For associations significant in univariate analysis, multiple logistic regression was used to explore further the association of sleep characteristics with pregnancy outcomes. In all, 901 eligible women consented to participate; 782 submitted valid actigraphy studies. Short sleep duration and a later sleep midpoint were associated with an increased risk of gestational diabetes (odds ratio, 2.24; 95% confidence interval, 1.11-4.53; and odds ratio, 2.58; 95% confidence interval, 1.24-5.36, respectively) but not of hypertensive disorders. A model with both sleep duration and sleep midpoint as well as their interaction term revealed that while there was no significant interaction between these exposures, the main effects of both short sleep duration and later sleep midpoint with gestational diabetes remained significant (adjusted odds ratio, 2.06; 95% confidence interval, 1.01-4.19; and adjusted odds ratio, 2.37; 95% confidence interval, 1.13-4.97, respectively). Additionally, after adjusting separately for age, body mass index, and race/ethnicity, both short sleep duration and later sleep midpoint remained associated with gestational diabetes. No associations were demonstrated between the sleep quality measures (wake after sleep onset, sleep fragmentation) and hypertensive disorders or gestational diabetes. Our results demonstrate a relationship between short sleep duration and later sleep midpoint with gestational diabetes. Our data suggest independent contributions of these 2 sleep characteristics to the risk for gestational diabetes in nulliparous women. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Reliability of confidence intervals calculated by bootstrap and classical methods using the FIA 1-ha plot design

Treesearch

H. T. Schreuder; M. S. Williams

2000-01-01

In simulation sampling from forest populations using sample sizes of 20, 40, and 60 plots respectively, confidence intervals based on the bootstrap (accelerated, percentile, and t-distribution based) were calculated and compared with those based on the classical t confidence intervals for mapped populations and subdomains within those populations. A 68.1 ha mapped...

Confidence Intervals for Proportion Estimates in Complex Samples. Research Report. ETS RR-06-21

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Oranje, Andreas

2006-01-01

Confidence intervals are an important tool to indicate uncertainty of estimates and to give an idea of probable values of an estimate if a different sample from the population was drawn or a different sample of measures was used. Standard symmetric confidence intervals for proportion estimates based on a normal approximation can yield bounds…

A Comparison of Methods for Estimating Confidence Intervals for Omega-Squared Effect Size

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Finch, W. Holmes; French, Brian F.

2012-01-01

Effect size use has been increasing in the past decade in many research areas. Confidence intervals associated with effect sizes are encouraged to be reported. Prior work has investigated the performance of confidence interval estimation with Cohen's d. This study extends this line of work to the analysis of variance case with more than two…

Energy expenditure estimation during daily military routine with body-fixed sensors.

PubMed

Wyss, Thomas; Mäder, Urs

2011-05-01

The purpose of this study was to develop and validate an algorithm for estimating energy expenditure during the daily military routine on the basis of data collected using body-fixed sensors. First, 8 volunteers completed isolated physical activities according to an established protocol, and the resulting data were used to develop activity-class-specific multiple linear regressions for physical activity energy expenditure on the basis of hip acceleration, heart rate, and body mass as independent variables. Second, the validity of these linear regressions was tested during the daily military routine using indirect calorimetry (n = 12). Volunteers' mean estimated energy expenditure did not significantly differ from the energy expenditure measured with indirect calorimetry (p = 0.898, 95% confidence interval = -1.97 to 1.75 kJ/min). We conclude that the developed activity-class-specific multiple linear regressions applied to the acceleration and heart rate data allow estimation of energy expenditure in 1-minute intervals during daily military routine, with accuracy equal to indirect calorimetry.

Markov chains for testing redundant software

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

White, Allan L.; Sjogren, Jon A.

1988-01-01

A preliminary design for a validation experiment has been developed that addresses several problems unique to assuring the extremely high quality of multiple-version programs in process-control software. The procedure uses Markov chains to model the error states of the multiple version programs. The programs are observed during simulated process-control testing, and estimates are obtained for the transition probabilities between the states of the Markov chain. The experimental Markov chain model is then expanded into a reliability model that takes into account the inertia of the system being controlled. The reliability of the multiple version software is computed from this reliability model at a given confidence level using confidence intervals obtained for the transition probabilities during the experiment. An example demonstrating the method is provided.

A Rasch-validated version of the upper extremity functional index for interval-level measurement of upper extremity function.

PubMed

Hamilton, Clayon B; Chesworth, Bert M

2013-11-01

The original 20-item Upper Extremity Functional Index (UEFI) has not undergone Rasch validation. The purpose of this study was to determine whether Rasch analysis supports the UEFI as a measure of a single construct (ie, upper extremity function) and whether a Rasch-validated UEFI has adequate reproducibility for individual-level patient evaluation. This was a secondary analysis of data from a repeated-measures study designed to evaluate the measurement properties of the UEFI over a 3-week period. Patients (n=239) with musculoskeletal upper extremity disorders were recruited from 17 physical therapy clinics across 4 Canadian provinces. Rasch analysis of the UEFI measurement properties was performed. If the UEFI did not fit the Rasch model, misfitting patients were deleted, items with poor response structure were corrected, and misfitting items and redundant items were deleted. The impact of differential item functioning on the ability estimate of patients was investigated. A 15-item modified UEFI was derived to achieve fit to the Rasch model where the total score was supported as a measure of upper extremity function only. The resultant UEFI-15 interval-level scale (0-100, worst to best state) demonstrated excellent internal consistency (person separation index=0.94) and test-retest reliability (intraclass correlation coefficient [2,1]=.95). The minimal detectable change at the 90% confidence interval was 8.1. Patients who were ambidextrous or bilaterally affected were excluded to allow for the analysis of differential item functioning due to limb involvement and arm dominance. Rasch analysis did not support the validity of the 20-item UEFI. However, the UEFI-15 was a valid and reliable interval-level measure of a single dimension: upper extremity function. Rasch analysis supports using the UEFI-15 in physical therapist practice to quantify upper extremity function in patients with musculoskeletal disorders of the upper extremity.

A Rasch-Validated Version of the Upper Extremity Functional Index for Interval-Level Measurement of Upper Extremity Function

PubMed Central

Chesworth, Bert M.

2013-01-01

Background The original 20-item Upper Extremity Functional Index (UEFI) has not undergone Rasch validation. Objective The purpose of this study was to determine whether Rasch analysis supports the UEFI as a measure of a single construct (ie, upper extremity function) and whether a Rasch-validated UEFI has adequate reproducibility for individual-level patient evaluation. Design This was a secondary analysis of data from a repeated-measures study designed to evaluate the measurement properties of the UEFI over a 3-week period. Methods Patients (n=239) with musculoskeletal upper extremity disorders were recruited from 17 physical therapy clinics across 4 Canadian provinces. Rasch analysis of the UEFI measurement properties was performed. If the UEFI did not fit the Rasch model, misfitting patients were deleted, items with poor response structure were corrected, and misfitting items and redundant items were deleted. The impact of differential item functioning on the ability estimate of patients was investigated. Results A 15-item modified UEFI was derived to achieve fit to the Rasch model where the total score was supported as a measure of upper extremity function only. The resultant UEFI-15 interval-level scale (0–100, worst to best state) demonstrated excellent internal consistency (person separation index=0.94) and test-retest reliability (intraclass correlation coefficient [2,1]=.95). The minimal detectable change at the 90% confidence interval was 8.1. Limitations Patients who were ambidextrous or bilaterally affected were excluded to allow for the analysis of differential item functioning due to limb involvement and arm dominance. Conclusion Rasch analysis did not support the validity of the 20-item UEFI. However, the UEFI-15 was a valid and reliable interval-level measure of a single dimension: upper extremity function. Rasch analysis supports using the UEFI-15 in physical therapist practice to quantify upper extremity function in patients with musculoskeletal disorders of the upper extremity. PMID:23813086

Patient, surgeon, and hospital disparities associated with benign hysterectomy approach and perioperative complications.

PubMed

Mehta, Ambar; Xu, Tim; Hutfless, Susan; Makary, Martin A; Sinno, Abdulrahman K; Tanner, Edward J; Stone, Rebecca L; Wang, Karen; Fader, Amanda N

2017-05-01

Hysterectomy is among the most common major surgical procedures performed in women. Approximately 450,000 hysterectomy procedures are performed each year in the United States for benign indications. However, little is known regarding contemporary US hysterectomy trends for women with benign disease with respect to operative technique and perioperative complications, and the association between these 2 factors with patient, surgeon, and hospital characteristics. We sought to describe contemporary hysterectomy trends and explore associations between patient, surgeon, and hospital characteristics with surgical approach and perioperative complications. Hysterectomies performed for benign indications by general gynecologists from July 2012 through September 2014 were analyzed in the all-payer Maryland Health Services Cost Review Commission database. We excluded hysterectomies performed by gynecologic oncologists, reproductive endocrinologists, and female pelvic medicine and reconstructive surgeons. We included both open hysterectomies and those performed by minimally invasive surgery, which included vaginal hysterectomies. Perioperative complications were defined using the Agency for Healthcare Research and Quality patient safety indicators. Surgeon hysterectomy volume during the 2-year study period was analyzed (0-5 cases annually = very low, 6-10 = low, 11-20 = medium, and ≥21 = high). We utilized logistic regression and negative binomial regression to identify patient, surgeon, and hospital characteristics associated with minimally invasive surgery utilization and perioperative complications, respectively. A total of 5660 hospitalizations were identified during the study period. Most patients (61.5%) had an open hysterectomy; 38.5% underwent a minimally invasive surgery procedure (25.1% robotic, 46.6% laparoscopic, 28.3% vaginal). Most surgeons (68.2%) were very low- or low-volume surgeons. Factors associated with a lower likelihood of undergoing minimally invasive surgery included older patient age (reference 45-64 years; 20-44 years: adjusted odds ratio, 1.16; 95% confidence interval, 1.05-1.28), black race (reference white; adjusted odds ratio, 0.70; 95% confidence interval, 0.63-0.78), Hispanic ethnicity (adjusted odds ratio, 0.62; 95% confidence interval, 0.48-0.80), smaller hospital (reference large; small: adjusted odds ratio, 0.26; 95% confidence interval, 0.15-0.45; medium: adjusted odds ratio, 0.87; 95% confidence interval, 0.79-0.96), medium hospital hysterectomy volume (reference ≥200 hysterectomies; 100-200: adjusted odds ratio, 0.78; 95% confidence interval, 0.71-0.87), and medium vs high surgeon volume (reference high; medium: adjusted odds ratio, 0.87; 95% confidence interval, 0.78-0.97). Complications occurred in 25.8% of open and 8.2% of minimally invasive hysterectomies (P < .0001). Minimally invasive hysterectomy (adjusted odds ratio, 0.22; 95% confidence interval, 0.17-0.27) and large hysterectomy volume hospitals (reference ≥200 hysterectomies; 1-100: adjusted odds ratio, 2.26; 95% confidence interval, 1.60-3.20; 101-200: adjusted odds ratio, 1.63; 95% confidence interval, 1.23-2.16) were associated with fewer complications, while patient payer, including Medicare (reference private; adjusted odds ratio, 1.86; 95% confidence interval, 1.33-2.61), Medicaid (adjusted odds ratio, 1.63; 95% confidence interval, 1.30-2.04), and self-pay status (adjusted odds ratio, 2.41; 95% confidence interval, 1.40-4.12), and very-low and low surgeon hysterectomy volume (reference ≥21 cases; 1-5 cases: adjusted odds ratio, 1.73; 95% confidence interval, 1.22-2.47; 6-10 cases: adjusted odds ratio, 1.60; 95% confidence interval, 1.11-2.23) were associated with perioperative complications. Use of minimally invasive hysterectomy for benign indications remains variable, with most patients undergoing open, more morbid procedures. Older and black patients and smaller hospitals are associated with open hysterectomy. Patient race and payer status, hysterectomy approach, and surgeon volume were associated with perioperative complications. Hysterectomies performed for benign indications by high-volume surgeons or by minimally invasive techniques may represent an opportunity to reduce preventable harm. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Unit Hydrograph Peaking Analysis for Goose Creek Watershed in Virginia: A Case Study

DTIC Science & Technology

2017-05-01

increment would not exceed 1.5 times the designed unit peak. The purpose of this study is to analyze the validity of this UHPF range of the Goose...confidence interval precipitation depths to the watershed in addition to the 50% value. This study concluded that a design event with a return period greater...In this study , the physically based GSSHA model was deployed to obtain corresponding design discharge from probable rainfall events. 3.2.1 GSSHA

Six-minute-walk test in idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis: test validation and minimal clinically important difference.

PubMed

du Bois, Roland M; Weycker, Derek; Albera, Carlo; Bradford, Williamson Z; Costabel, Ulrich; Kartashov, Alex; Lancaster, Lisa; Noble, Paul W; Sahn, Steven A; Szwarcberg, Javier; Thomeer, Michiel; Valeyre, Dominique; King, Talmadge E

2011-05-01

The 6-minute-walk test (6MWT) is a practical and clinically meaningful measure of exercise tolerance with favorable performance characteristics in various cardiac and pulmonary diseases. Performance characteristics in patients with idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis (IPF) have not been systematically evaluated. To assess the reliability, validity, and responsiveness of the 6MWT and estimate the minimal clinically important difference (MCID) in patients with IPF. The study population included all subjects completing a 6MWT in a clinical trial evaluating interferon gamma-1b (n = 822). Six-minute walk distance (6MWD) and other parameters were measured at baseline and at 24-week intervals using a standardized protocol. Parametric and distribution-independent correlation coefficients were used to assess the strength of the relationships between 6MWD and measures of pulmonary function, dyspnea, and health-related quality of life. Both distribution-based and anchor-based methods were used to estimate the MCID. Comparison of two proximal measures of 6MWD (mean interval, 24 d) demonstrated good reliability (coefficient = 0.83; P < 0.001). 6MWD was weakly correlated with measures of physiologic function and health-related quality of life; however, values were consistently and significantly lower for patients with the poorest functional status, suggesting good construct validity. Importantly, change in 6MWD was highly predictive of mortality; a 24-week decline of greater than 50 m was associated with a fourfold increase in risk of death at 1 year (hazard ratio, 4.27; 95% confidence interval, 2.57- 7.10; P < 0.001). The estimated MCID was 24-45 m. The 6MWT is a reliable, valid, and responsive measure of disease status and a valid endpoint for clinical trials in IPF.

Opioid Analgesics and Adverse Outcomes among Hemodialysis Patients.

PubMed

Ishida, Julie H; McCulloch, Charles E; Steinman, Michael A; Grimes, Barbara A; Johansen, Kirsten L

2018-05-07

Patients on hemodialysis frequently experience pain and may be particularly vulnerable to opioid-related complications. However, data evaluating the risks of opioid use in patients on hemodialysis are limited. Using the US Renal Data System, we conducted a cohort study evaluating the association between opioid use (modeled as a time-varying exposure and expressed in standardized oral morphine equivalents) and time to first emergency room visit or hospitalization for altered mental status, fall, and fracture among 140,899 Medicare-covered adults receiving hemodialysis in 2011. We evaluated risk according to average daily total opioid dose (>60 mg, ≤60 mg, and per 60-mg dose increment) and specific agents (per 60-mg dose increment). The median age was 61 years old, 52% were men, and 50% were white. Sixty-four percent received opioids, and 17% had an episode of altered mental status (15,658 events), fall (7646 events), or fracture (4151 events) in 2011. Opioid use was associated with risk for all outcomes in a dose-dependent manner: altered mental status (lower dose: hazard ratio, 1.28; 95% confidence interval, 1.23 to 1.34; higher dose: hazard ratio, 1.67; 95% confidence interval, 1.56 to 1.78; hazard ratio, 1.29 per 60 mg; 95% confidence interval, 1.26 to 1.33), fall (lower dose: hazard ratio, 1.28; 95% confidence interval, 1.21 to 1.36; higher dose: hazard ratio, 1.45; 95% confidence interval, 1.31 to 1.61; hazard ratio, 1.04 per 60 mg; 95% confidence interval, 1.03 to 1.05), and fracture (lower dose: hazard ratio, 1.44; 95% confidence interval, 1.33 to 1.56; higher dose: hazard ratio, 1.65; 95% confidence interval, 1.44 to 1.89; hazard ratio, 1.04 per 60 mg; 95% confidence interval, 1.04 to 1.05). All agents were associated with a significantly higher hazard of altered mental status, and several agents were associated with a significantly higher hazard of fall and fracture. Opioids were associated with adverse outcomes in patients on hemodialysis, and this risk was present even at lower dosing and for agents that guidelines have recommended for use. Copyright © 2018 by the American Society of Nephrology.

Pregnancy outcome in joint hypermobility syndrome and Ehlers-Danlos syndrome.

PubMed

Sundelin, Heléne E K; Stephansson, Olof; Johansson, Kari; Ludvigsson, Jonas F

2017-01-01

An increased risk of preterm birth in women with joint hypermobility syndrome or Ehlers-Danlos syndrome is suspected. In this nationwide cohort study from 1997 through 2011, women with either joint hypermobility syndrome or Ehlers-Danlos syndrome or both disorders were identified through the Swedish Patient Register, and linked to the Medical Birth Register. Thereby, 314 singleton births to women with joint hypermobility syndrome/Ehlers-Danlos syndrome before delivery were identified. These births were compared with 1 247 864 singleton births to women without a diagnosis of joint hypermobility syndrome/Ehlers-Danlos syndrome. We used logistic regression, adjusted for maternal age, smoking, parity, and year of birth, to calculate adjusted odds ratios for adverse pregnancy outcomes. Maternal joint hypermobility syndrome/Ehlers-Danlos syndrome was not associated with any of our outcomes: preterm birth (adjusted odds ratio = 0.6, 95% confidence interval 0.3-1.2), preterm premature rupture of membranes (adjusted odds ratio = 0.8; 95% confidence interval 0.3-2.2), cesarean section (adjusted odds ratio = 0.9, 95% confidence interval 0.7-1.2), stillbirth (adjusted odds ratio = 1.1, 95% confidence interval 0.2-7.9), low Apgar score (adjusted odds ratio = 1.6, 95% confidence interval 0.7-3.6), small for gestational age (adjusted odds ratio = 0.9, 95% confidence interval 0.4-1.8) or large for gestational age (adjusted odds ratio = 1.2, 95% confidence interval 0.6-2.1). Examining only women with Ehlers-Danlos syndrome (n = 62), we found a higher risk of induction of labor (adjusted odds ratio = 2.6; 95% confidence interval 1.4-4.6) and amniotomy (adjusted odds ratio = 3.8; 95% confidence interval 2.0-7.1). No excess risks for adverse pregnancy outcome were seen in joint hypermobility syndrome. Women with joint hypermobility syndrome/Ehlers-Danlos syndrome do not seem to be at increased risk of adverse pregnancy outcome. © 2016 Nordic Federation of Societies of Obstetrics and Gynecology.

Comprehension of confidence intervals - development and piloting of patient information materials for people with multiple sclerosis: qualitative study and pilot randomised controlled trial.

PubMed

Rahn, Anne C; Backhus, Imke; Fuest, Franz; Riemann-Lorenz, Karin; Köpke, Sascha; van de Roemer, Adrianus; Mühlhauser, Ingrid; Heesen, Christoph

2016-09-20

Presentation of confidence intervals alongside information about treatment effects can support informed treatment choices in people with multiple sclerosis. We aimed to develop and pilot-test different written patient information materials explaining confidence intervals in people with relapsing-remitting multiple sclerosis. Further, a questionnaire on comprehension of confidence intervals was developed and piloted. We developed different patient information versions aiming to explain confidence intervals. We used an illustrative example to test three different approaches: (1) short version, (2) "average weight" version and (3) "worm prophylaxis" version. Interviews were conducted using think-aloud and teach-back approaches to test feasibility and analysed using qualitative content analysis. To assess comprehension of confidence intervals, a six-item multiple choice questionnaire was developed and tested in a pilot randomised controlled trial using the online survey software UNIPARK. Here, the average weight version (intervention group) was tested against a standard patient information version on confidence intervals (control group). People with multiple sclerosis were invited to take part using existing mailing-lists of people with multiple sclerosis in Germany and were randomised using the UNIPARK algorithm. Participants were blinded towards group allocation. Primary endpoint was comprehension of confidence intervals, assessed with the six-item multiple choice questionnaire with six points representing perfect knowledge. Feasibility of the patient information versions was tested with 16 people with multiple sclerosis. For the pilot randomised controlled trial, 64 people with multiple sclerosis were randomised (intervention group: n = 36; control group: n = 28). More questions were answered correctly in the intervention group compared to the control group (mean 4.8 vs 3.8, mean difference 1.1 (95 % CI 0.42-1.69), p = 0.002). The questionnaire's internal consistency was moderate (Cronbach's alpha = 0.56). The pilot-phase shows promising results concerning acceptability and feasibility. Pilot randomised controlled trial results indicate that the patient information is well understood and that knowledge gain on confidence intervals can be assessed with a set of six questions. German Clinical Trials Register: DRKS00008561 . Registered 8th of June 2015.

Ethnic Differences in Incidence and Outcomes of Childhood Nephrotic Syndrome.

PubMed

Banh, Tonny H M; Hussain-Shamsy, Neesha; Patel, Viral; Vasilevska-Ristovska, Jovanka; Borges, Karlota; Sibbald, Cathryn; Lipszyc, Deborah; Brooke, Josefina; Geary, Denis; Langlois, Valerie; Reddon, Michele; Pearl, Rachel; Levin, Leo; Piekut, Monica; Licht, Christoph P B; Radhakrishnan, Seetha; Aitken-Menezes, Kimberly; Harvey, Elizabeth; Hebert, Diane; Piscione, Tino D; Parekh, Rulan S

2016-10-07

Ethnic differences in outcomes among children with nephrotic syndrome are unknown. We conducted a longitudinal study at a single regional pediatric center comparing ethnic differences in incidence from 2001 to 2011 census data and longitudinal outcomes, including relapse rates, time to first relapse, frequently relapsing disease, and use of cyclophosphamide. Among 711 children, 24% were European, 33% were South Asian, 10% were East/Southeast Asian, and 33% were of other origins. Over 10 years, the overall incidence increased from 1.99/100,000 to 4.71/100,000 among children ages 1-18 years old. In 2011, South Asians had a higher incidence rate ratio of 6.61 (95% confidence interval, 3.16 to 15.1) compared with Europeans. East/Southeast Asians had a similar incidence rate ratio (0.76; 95% confidence interval, 0.13 to 2.94) to Europeans. We determined outcomes in 455 children from the three largest ethnic groups with steroid-sensitive disease over a median of 4 years. South Asian and East/Southeast Asian children had significantly lower odds of frequently relapsing disease at 12 months (South Asian: adjusted odds ratio; 0.55; 95% confidence interval, 0.39 to 0.77; East/Southeast Asian: adjusted odds ratio; 0.42; 95% confidence interval, 0.34 to 0.51), fewer subsequent relapses (South Asian: adjusted odds ratio; 0.64; 95% confidence interval, 0.50 to 0.81; East/Southeast Asian: adjusted odds ratio; 0.47; 95% confidence interval, 0.24 to 0.91), lower risk of a first relapse (South Asian: adjusted hazard ratio, 0.74; 95% confidence interval, 0.67 to 0.83; East/Southeast Asian: adjusted hazard ratio, 0.65; 95% CI, 0.63 to 0.68), and lower use of cyclophosphamide (South Asian: adjusted hazard ratio, 0.82; 95% confidence interval, 0.53 to 1.28; East/Southeast Asian: adjusted hazard ratio, 0.54; 95% confidence interval, 0.41 to 0.71) compared with European children. Despite the higher incidence among South Asians, South and East/Southeast Asian children have significantly less complicated clinical outcomes compared with Europeans. Copyright © 2016 by the American Society of Nephrology.

Confidence intervals for correlations when data are not normal.

PubMed

Bishara, Anthony J; Hittner, James B

2017-02-01

With nonnormal data, the typical confidence interval of the correlation (Fisher z') may be inaccurate. The literature has been unclear as to which of several alternative methods should be used instead, and how extreme a violation of normality is needed to justify an alternative. Through Monte Carlo simulation, 11 confidence interval methods were compared, including Fisher z', two Spearman rank-order methods, the Box-Cox transformation, rank-based inverse normal (RIN) transformation, and various bootstrap methods. Nonnormality often distorted the Fisher z' confidence interval-for example, leading to a 95 % confidence interval that had actual coverage as low as 68 %. Increasing the sample size sometimes worsened this problem. Inaccurate Fisher z' intervals could be predicted by a sample kurtosis of at least 2, an absolute sample skewness of at least 1, or significant violations of normality hypothesis tests. Only the Spearman rank-order and RIN transformation methods were universally robust to nonnormality. Among the bootstrap methods, an observed imposed bootstrap came closest to accurate coverage, though it often resulted in an overly long interval. The results suggest that sample nonnormality can justify avoidance of the Fisher z' interval in favor of a more robust alternative. R code for the relevant methods is provided in supplementary materials.

Confidence intervals and sample size calculations for the standardized mean difference effect size between two normal populations under heteroscedasticity.

PubMed

Shieh, G

2013-12-01

The use of effect sizes and associated confidence intervals in all empirical research has been strongly emphasized by journal publication guidelines. To help advance theory and practice in the social sciences, this article describes an improved procedure for constructing confidence intervals of the standardized mean difference effect size between two independent normal populations with unknown and possibly unequal variances. The presented approach has advantages over the existing formula in both theoretical justification and computational simplicity. In addition, simulation results show that the suggested one- and two-sided confidence intervals are more accurate in achieving the nominal coverage probability. The proposed estimation method provides a feasible alternative to the most commonly used measure of Cohen's d and the corresponding interval procedure when the assumption of homogeneous variances is not tenable. To further improve the potential applicability of the suggested methodology, the sample size procedures for precise interval estimation of the standardized mean difference are also delineated. The desired precision of a confidence interval is assessed with respect to the control of expected width and to the assurance probability of interval width within a designated value. Supplementary computer programs are developed to aid in the usefulness and implementation of the introduced techniques.

The Skin Cancer Objective Structured Clinical Examination (SCOSCE): A multi-institutional collaboration to develop and validate a clinical skills assessment for melanoma.

PubMed

Garg, Amit; Biello, Katie; Hoot, Joyce W; Reddy, Shalini B; Wilson, Lindsay; George, Paul; Robinson-Bostom, Leslie; Belazarian, Leah; Domingues, Erik; Powers, Jennifer; Jacob, Reza; Powers, Michael; Besen, Justin; Geller, Alan C

2015-12-01

Assessing medical students on core skills related to melanoma detection is challenging in the absence of a well-developed instrument. We sought to develop an objective structured clinical examination for the detection and evaluation of melanoma among medical students. This was a prospective cohort analysis of student and objective rater agreement on performance of clinical skills and assessment of differences in performance across 3 schools. Kappa coefficients indicated excellent agreement for 3 of 5 core skills including commenting on the presence of the moulage (k = 0.87, 95% confidence interval 0.77-0.96), obtaining a history for the moulage (k = 0.84, 95% confidence interval 0.74-0.94), and making a clinical impression (k = 0.80, 95% confidence interval 0.68-0.92). There were no differences in performance across schools with respect to 3 of 5 core skills: commenting on the presence of the moulage (P = .15), initiating a history (P = .53), and managing the suspicious lesion (P value range .07-.17). Overall, 54.2% and 44.7% of students commented on the presence of the moulage and achieved maximum performance of core skills, respectively, with no difference in performance across schools. Limitations include overall sample size of students and schools. The Skin Cancer Objective Structured Clinical Examination represents a potentially important instrument to measure students' performance on the optimal step-by-step evaluation of a melanoma. Copyright © 2015 American Academy of Dermatology, Inc. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Critical analysis of consecutive unilateral cleft lip repairs: determining ideal sample size.

PubMed

Power, Stephanie M; Matic, Damir B

2013-03-01

Objective : Cleft surgeons often show 10 consecutive lip repairs to reduce presentation bias, however the validity remains unknown. The purpose of this study is to determine the number of consecutive cases that represent average outcomes. Secondary objectives are to determine if outcomes correlate with cleft severity and to calculate interrater reliability. Design : Consecutive preoperative and 2-year postoperative photographs of the unilateral cleft lip-nose complex were randomized and evaluated by cleft surgeons. Parametric analysis was performed according to chronologic, consecutive order. The mean standard deviation over all raters enabled calculation of expected 95% confidence intervals around a mean tested for various sample sizes. Setting : Meeting of the American Cleft Palate-Craniofacial Association in 2009. Patients, Participants : Ten senior cleft surgeons evaluated 39 consecutive lip repairs. Main Outcome Measures : Preoperative severity and postoperative outcomes were evaluated using descriptive and quantitative scales. Results : Intraclass correlation coefficients for cleft severity and postoperative evaluations were 0.65 and 0.21, respectively. Outcomes did not correlate with cleft severity (P  =  .28). Calculations for 10 consecutive cases demonstrated wide 95% confidence intervals, spanning two points on both postoperative grading scales. Ninety-five percent confidence intervals narrowed within one qualitative grade (±0.30) and one point (±0.50) on the 10-point scale for 27 consecutive cases. Conclusions : Larger numbers of consecutive cases (n > 27) are increasingly representative of average results, but less practical in presentation format. Ten consecutive cases lack statistical support. Cleft surgeons showed low interrater reliability for postoperative assessments, which may reflect personal bias when evaluating another surgeon's results.

Spot sign on 90-second delayed computed tomography angiography improves sensitivity for hematoma expansion and mortality: prospective study.

PubMed

Ciura, Viesha A; Brouwers, H Bart; Pizzolato, Raffaella; Ortiz, Claudia J; Rosand, Jonathan; Goldstein, Joshua N; Greenberg, Steven M; Pomerantz, Stuart R; Gonzalez, R Gilberto; Romero, Javier M

2014-11-01

The computed tomography angiography (CTA) spot sign is a validated biomarker for poor outcome and hematoma expansion in intracerebral hemorrhage. The spot sign has proven to be a dynamic entity, with multimodal imaging proving to be of additional value. We investigated whether the addition of a 90-second delayed CTA acquisition would capture additional intracerebral hemorrhage patients with the spot sign and increase the sensitivity of the spot sign. We prospectively enrolled consecutive intracerebral hemorrhage patients undergoing first pass and 90-second delayed CTA for 18 months at a single academic center. Univariate and multivariate logistic regression were performed to assess clinical and neuroimaging covariates for relationship with hematoma expansion and mortality. Sensitivity of the spot sign for hematoma expansion on first pass CTA was 55%, which increased to 64% if the spot sign was present on either CTA acquisition. In multivariate analysis the spot sign presence was associated with significant hematoma expansion: odds ratio, 17.7 (95% confidence interval, 3.7-84.2; P=0.0004), 8.3 (95% confidence interval, 2.0-33.4; P=0.004), and 12.0 (95% confidence interval, 2.9-50.5; P=0.0008) if present on first pass, delayed, or either CTA acquisition, respectively. Spot sign presence on either acquisitions was also significant for mortality. We demonstrate improved sensitivity for predicting hematoma expansion and poor outcome by adding a 90-second delayed CTA, which may enhance selection of patients who may benefit from hemostatic therapy. © 2014 American Heart Association, Inc.

Interaction of soy food and tea consumption with CYP19A1 genetic polymorphisms in the development of endometrial cancer.

PubMed

Xu, Wang Hong; Dai, Qi; Xiang, Yong Bing; Long, Ji Rong; Ruan, Zhi Xian; Cheng, Jia Rong; Zheng, Wei; Shu, Xiao Ou

2007-12-15

Certain polyphenols inhibit the activity of aromatase, a critical enzyme in estrogen synthesis that is coded by the CYP19A1 gene. Consumption of polyphenol-rich foods and beverages, thus, may interact with CYP19A1 genetic polymorphisms in the development of endometrial cancer. The authors tested this hypothesis in the Shanghai Endometrial Cancer Study (1997-2003), a population-based case-control study of 1,204 endometrial cancer cases and 1,212 controls. Dietary information was obtained by use of a validated food frequency questionnaire. Genotypes of CYP19A1 at rs28566535, rs1065779, rs752760, rs700519, and rs1870050 were available for 1,042 cases and 1,035 controls. Unconditional logistic regression models were used to calculate odds ratios and their 95% confidence intervals after adjustment for potential confounding factors. Higher intake of soy foods and tea consumption were both inversely associated with the risk of endometrial cancer, with odds ratios of 0.8 (95% confidence interval: 0.6, 1.0) for the highest versus the lowest tertiles of intake of soy and 0.8 (95% confidence interval: 06, 0.9) for ever tea consumption. The association of single nucleotide polymorphisms rs1065779, rs752760, and rs1870050 with endometrial cancer was modified by tea consumption (p(interaction) < 0.05) but not by soy isoflavone intake. The authors' findings suggest that tea polyphenols may modify the effect of CYP19A1 genetic polymorphisms on the development of endometrial cancer.

Reliability of scoring arousals in normal children and children with obstructive sleep apnea syndrome.

PubMed

Wong, Tat Kong; Galster, Patricia; Lau, Tai Shing; Lutz, Janita M; Marcus, Carole L

2004-09-15

Scoring of arousals in children is based on an extension of adult criteria, as defined by the American Sleep Disorders Association (ASDA). By this, a minimum duration of 3 seconds is required. A few recent studies utilized modified criteria for the study of children, with durations as short as 1 second. However, the validity and reliability of scoring these shorter arousals have never been verified. Based on studies in adults, we hypothesized that interscorer agreement for scoring arousals shorter than 3 seconds was poor. Retrospective review of polysomnograms by 2 experienced sleep practitioners who independently scored arousals according to the ASDA 3-second criteria and modified duration criteria of 1 and 2 seconds. Academic hospital. 20 polysomnographic studies from children aged 3 to 8 years with mild to severe obstructive sleep apnea syndrome, and 16 polysomnographic studies from normal children. None. The intraclass correlation coefficient for scoring ASDA arousals was 0.90 (95% confidence interval: 0.81-0.95), indicating excellent interscorer agreement. The intraclass correlation coefficient for scoring modified 1-second and 2-second arousals were 0.35 (95% confidence interval: 0.02-0.61) and 0.42 (95% confidence interval: 0.12-0.65) respectively, indicating poor to fair interscorer agreement. Furthermore, modified 1-second and 2-second arousals accounted for less than 15% of all arousals scored. We conclude that there is much poorer interscorer agreement for scoring arousals shorter than 3 seconds, when compared to the standard ASDA criteria. We propose that scoring of arousals in children should follow the standard ASDA criteria.

A nomogram to predict the survival of stage IIIA-N2 non-small cell lung cancer after surgery.

PubMed

Mao, Qixing; Xia, Wenjie; Dong, Gaochao; Chen, Shuqi; Wang, Anpeng; Jin, Guangfu; Jiang, Feng; Xu, Lin

2018-04-01

Postoperative survival of patients with stage IIIA-N2 non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC) is highly heterogeneous. Here, we aimed to identify variables associated with postoperative survival and develop a tool for survival prediction. A retrospective review was performed in the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results database from January 2004 to December 2009. Significant variables were selected by use of the backward stepwise method. The nomogram was constructed with multivariable Cox regression. The model's performance was evaluated by concordance index and calibration curve. The model was validated via an independent cohort from the Jiangsu Cancer Hospital Lung Cancer Center. A total of 1809 patients with stage IIIA-N2 NSCLC who underwent surgery were included in the training cohort. Age, sex, grade, histology, tumor size, visceral pleural invasion, positive lymph nodes, lymph nodes examined, and surgery type (lobectomy vs pneumonectomy) were identified as significant prognostic variables using backward stepwise method. A nomogram was developed from the training cohort and validated using an independent Chinese cohort. The concordance index of the model was 0.673 (95% confidence interval, 0.654-0.692) in training cohort and 0.664 in validation cohort (95% confidence interval, 0.614-0.714). The calibration plot showed optimal consistency between nomogram predicted survival and observed survival. Survival analyses demonstrated significant differences between different subgroups stratified by prognostic scores. This nomogram provided the individual survival prediction for patients with stage IIIA-N2 NSCLC after surgery, which might benefit survival counseling for patients and clinicians, clinical trial design and follow-up, as well as postoperative strategy-making. Copyright © 2017 The American Association for Thoracic Surgery. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Validity and applicability of a video-based animated tool to assess mobility in elderly Latin American populations

PubMed Central

Guerra, Ricardo Oliveira; Oliveira, Bruna Silva; Alvarado, Beatriz Eugenia; Curcio, Carmen Lucia; Rejeski, W Jack; Marsh, Anthony P; Ip, Edward H; Barnard, Ryan T; Guralnik, Jack M; Zunzunegui, Maria Victoria

2016-01-01

Aim To assess the reliability and the validity of Portuguese- and Spanish-translated versions of the video-based short-form Mobility Assessment Tool in assessing self-reported mobility, and to provide evidence for the applicability of these videos in elderly Latin American populations as a complement to physical performance measures. Methods The sample consisted of 300 elderly participants (150 from Brazil, 150 from Colombia) recruited at neighborhood social centers. Mobility was assessed with the Mobility Assessment Tool, and compared with the Short Physical Performance Battery score and self-reported functional limitations. Reliability was calculated using intraclass correlation coefficients. Multiple linear regression analyses were used to assess associations among mobility assessment tools and health, and sociodemographic variables. Results A significant gradient of increasing Mobility Assessment Tool score with better physical function was observed for both self-reported and objective measures, and in each city. Associations between self-reported mobility and health were strong, and significant. Mobility Assessment Tool scores were lower in women at both sites. Intraclass correlation coefficients of the Mobility Assessment Tool were 0.94 (95% confidence interval 0.90–0.97) in Brazil and 0.81 (95% confidence interval 0.66–0.91) in Colombia. Mobility Assessment Tool scores were lower in Manizales than in Natal after adjustment by Short Physical Performance Battery, self-rated health and sex. Conclusions These results provide evidence for high reliability and good validity of the Mobility Assessment Tool in its Spanish and Portuguese versions used in Latin American populations. In addition, the Mobility Assessment Tool can detect mobility differences related to environmental features that cannot be captured by objective perfor mance measures. PMID:24666718

Validity and applicability of a video-based animated tool to assess mobility in elderly Latin American populations.

PubMed

Guerra, Ricardo Oliveira; Oliveira, Bruna Silva; Alvarado, Beatriz Eugenia; Curcio, Carmen Lucia; Rejeski, W Jack; Marsh, Anthony P; Ip, Edward H; Barnard, Ryan T; Guralnik, Jack M; Zunzunegui, Maria Victoria

2014-10-01

To assess the reliability and the validity of Portuguese- and Spanish-translated versions of the video-based short-form Mobility Assessment Tool in assessing self-reported mobility, and to provide evidence for the applicability of these videos in elderly Latin American populations as a complement to physical performance measures. The sample consisted of 300 elderly participants (150 from Brazil, 150 from Colombia) recruited at neighborhood social centers. Mobility was assessed with the Mobility Assessment Tool, and compared with the Short Physical Performance Battery score and self-reported functional limitations. Reliability was calculated using intraclass correlation coefficients. Multiple linear regression analyses were used to assess associations among mobility assessment tools and health, and sociodemographic variables. A significant gradient of increasing Mobility Assessment Tool score with better physical function was observed for both self-reported and objective measures, and in each city. Associations between self-reported mobility and health were strong, and significant. Mobility Assessment Tool scores were lower in women at both sites. Intraclass correlation coefficients of the Mobility Assessment Tool were 0.94 (95% confidence interval 0.90-0.97) in Brazil and 0.81 (95% confidence interval 0.66-0.91) in Colombia. Mobility Assessment Tool scores were lower in Manizales than in Natal after adjustment by Short Physical Performance Battery, self-rated health and sex. These results provide evidence for high reliability and good validity of the Mobility Assessment Tool in its Spanish and Portuguese versions used in Latin American populations. In addition, the Mobility Assessment Tool can detect mobility differences related to environmental features that cannot be captured by objective performance measures. © 2013 Japan Geriatrics Society.

A clinical score to obviate the need for cardiac stress testing in patients with acute chest pain and negative troponins.

PubMed

Bouzas-Mosquera, Alberto; Peteiro, Jesús; Broullón, Francisco J; Álvarez-García, Nemesio; Maneiro-Melón, Nicolás; Pardo-Martinez, Patricia; Sagastagoitia-Fornie, Marta; Martínez, Dolores; Yáñez, Juan C; Vázquez-Rodríguez, José Manuel

2016-08-01

Although cardiac stress testing may help establish the safety of early discharge in patients with suspected acute coronary syndromes and negative troponins, more cost-effective strategies are necessary. We aimed to develop a clinical prediction rule to safely obviate the need for cardiac stress testing in this setting. A decision rule was derived in a prospective cohort of 3001 patients with acute chest pain and negative troponins, and validated in a set of 1473 subjects. The primary end point was a composite of positive cardiac stress testing (in the absence of a subsequent negative coronary angiogram), positive coronary angiography, or any major coronary events within 3 months. A score chart was built based on 7 variables: male sex (+2), age (+1 per decade from the fifth decade), diabetes mellitus (+2), hypercholesterolemia (+1), prior coronary revascularization (+2), type of chest pain (typical angina, +5; non-specific chest pain, -3), and non-diagnostic repolarization abnormalities (+2). In the validation set, the model showed good discrimination (c statistic = 0.84; 95% confidence interval, 0.82-0.87) and calibration (Hosmer-Lemeshow goodness-of-fit test, P= .34). If stress tests were avoided in patients in the validation sample with a sum score of 0 or lower, the number of referrals would be reduced by 23.4%, yielding a negative predictive value of 98.8% (95% confidence interval, 97.0%-99.7%). This novel prediction rule based on a combination of readily available clinical characteristics may be a valuable tool to decide whether stress testing can be reliably avoided in patients with acute chest pain and negative troponins. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Psychometric assessment of a scale to measure bonding workplace social capital

PubMed Central

Tsutsumi, Akizumi; Inoue, Akiomi; Odagiri, Yuko

2017-01-01

Objectives Workplace social capital (WSC) has attracted increasing attention as an organizational and psychosocial factor related to worker health. This study aimed to assess the psychometric properties of a newly developed WSC scale for use in work environments, where bonding social capital is important. Methods We assessed the psychometric properties of a newly developed 6-item scale to measure bonding WSC using two data sources. Participants were 1,650 randomly selected workers who completed an online survey. Exploratory factor analyses were conducted. We examined the item–item and item–total correlations, internal consistency, and associations between scale scores and a previous 8-item measure of WSC. We evaluated test–retest reliability by repeating the survey with 900 of the respondents 2 weeks later. The overall scale reliability was quantified by an intraclass coefficient and the standard error of measurement. We evaluated convergent validity by examining the association with several relevant workplace psychosocial factors using a dataset from workers employed by an electrical components company (n = 2,975). Results The scale was unidimensional. The item–item and item–total correlations ranged from 0.52 to 0.78 (p < 0.01) and from 0.79 to 0.89 (p < 0.01), respectively. Internal consistency was good (Cronbach’s α coefficient: 0.93). The correlation with the 8-item scale indicated high criterion validity (r = 0.81) and the scale showed high test–retest reliability (r = 0.74, p < 0.01). The intraclass coefficient and standard error of measurement were 0.74 (95% confidence intervals: 0.71–0.77) and 4.04 (95% confidence intervals: 1.86–6.20), respectively. Correlations with relevant workplace psychosocial factors showed convergent validity. Conclusions The results confirmed that the newly developed WSC scale has adequate psychometric properties. PMID:28662058

Predicting the 10-Year Risks of Atherosclerotic Cardiovascular Disease in Chinese Population: The China-PAR Project (Prediction for ASCVD Risk in China).

PubMed

Yang, Xueli; Li, Jianxin; Hu, Dongsheng; Chen, Jichun; Li, Ying; Huang, Jianfeng; Liu, Xiaoqing; Liu, Fangchao; Cao, Jie; Shen, Chong; Yu, Ling; Lu, Fanghong; Wu, Xianping; Zhao, Liancheng; Wu, Xigui; Gu, Dongfeng

2016-11-08

The accurate assessment of individual risk can be of great value to guiding and facilitating the prevention of atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (ASCVD). However, prediction models in common use were formulated primarily in white populations. The China-PAR project (Prediction for ASCVD Risk in China) is aimed at developing and validating 10-year risk prediction equations for ASCVD from 4 contemporary Chinese cohorts. Two prospective studies followed up together with a unified protocol were used as the derivation cohort to develop 10-year ASCVD risk equations in 21 320 Chinese participants. The external validation was evaluated in 2 independent Chinese cohorts with 14 123 and 70 838 participants. Furthermore, model performance was compared with the Pooled Cohort Equations reported in the American College of Cardiology/American Heart Association guideline. Over 12 years of follow-up in the derivation cohort with 21 320 Chinese participants, 1048 subjects developed a first ASCVD event. Sex-specific equations had C statistics of 0.794 (95% confidence interval, 0.775-0.814) for men and 0.811 (95% confidence interval, 0.787-0.835) for women. The predicted rates were similar to the observed rates, as indicated by a calibration χ 2 of 13.1 for men (P=0.16) and 12.8 for women (P=0.17). Good internal and external validations of our equations were achieved in subsequent analyses. Compared with the Chinese equations, the Pooled Cohort Equations had lower C statistics and much higher calibration χ 2 values in men. Our project developed effective tools with good performance for 10-year ASCVD risk prediction among a Chinese population that will help to improve the primary prevention and management of cardiovascular disease. © 2016 American Heart Association, Inc.

Comparison of Clinical, Maternal, and Self Pubertal Assessments: Implications for Health Studies

PubMed Central

Goldberg, Mandy; Schechter, Sarah; Houghton, Lauren C.; White, Melissa L.; O’Toole, Karen; Chung, Wendy K.; Daly, Mary B.; Keegan, Theresa H.M.; Andrulis, Irene L.; Bradbury, Angela R.; Schwartz, Lisa; Knight, Julia A.; John, Esther M.; Buys, Saundra S.

2016-01-01

BACKGROUND: Most epidemiologic studies of puberty have only 1 source of pubertal development information (maternal, self or clinical). Interpretation of results across studies requires data on reliability and validity across sources. METHODS: The LEGACY Girls Study, a 5-site prospective study of girls aged 6 to 13 years (n = 1040) collected information on breast and pubic hair development from mothers (for all daughters) and daughters (if ≥10 years) according to Tanner stage (T1–5) drawings. At 2 LEGACY sites, girls (n = 282) were also examined in the clinic by trained professionals. We assessed agreement (κ) and validity (sensitivity and specificity) with the clinical assessment (gold standard) for both the mothers’ and daughters’ assessment in the subcohort of 282. In the entire cohort, we examined the agreement between mothers and daughters. RESULTS: Compared with clinical assessment, sensitivity of maternal assessment for breast development was 77.2 and specificity was 94.3. In girls aged ≥11 years, self-assessment had higher sensitivity and specificity than maternal report. Specificity for both mothers and self, but not sensitivity, was significantly lower for overweight girls. In the overall cohort, maternal and daughter agreement for breast development and pubic hair development (T2+ vs T1) were similar (0.66, [95% confidence interval 0.58–0.75] and 0.69 [95% confidence interval 0.61–0.77], respectively), but declined with age. Mothers were more likely to report a lower Tanner stage for both breast and pubic hair compared with self-assessments. CONCLUSIONS: These differences in validity should be considered in studies measuring pubertal changes longitudinally when they do not have access to clinical assessments. PMID:27279647

Midazolam as an active placebo in 3 fentanyl-validated nociceptive pain models.

PubMed

Prosenz, Julian; Gustorff, Burkhard

2017-07-01

The use of inactive placebos in early translational trials of potentially analgesic compounds is discouraged because of the side-effect profiles of centrally acting analgesics. Therefore, benzodiazepines are used, although their use has not been validated in this context. Whether benzodiazepines confound the results of acute pain tests is unknown. Midazolam (0.06 mg/kg) as an active placebo was investigated in 3 nociceptive models that included contact heat, electrical pain, and pressure pain thresholds in 24 healthy volunteers. Fentanyl (1 μg/kg) served as an internal validator in this randomized, placebo (saline) controlled, 3-way cross-over trial. The primary outcome parameter (contact heat pain) was analyzed using a one-way, repeated measures analysis of variance and Tukey's post test. Midazolam did not reduce pain ([numeric rating scale], 0-100) in a statistically significant manner compared with placebo for the contact heat (mean difference -1.7, 95% confidence interval -10.6 to 7.3; P = 0.89) or electrical pain (4.3, -5.1 to 13.7; P = 0.51) test, nor did it raise the pressure pain thresholds (-28 kPa, -122; 64 kPa, P = 0.73). The width of the confidence intervals suggested that there were no clinically meaningful analgesic effects compared with the placebo. In contrast, the analgesic efficacy of fentanyl was effectively demonstrated in all 3 models (P < 0.01 vs midazolam and placebo). The findings of this study show that midazolam can be used as an active placebo in analgesic drug trials. Furthermore, the proposed models were simple to implement and very effective in detecting analgesia. The test battery can be used in translational trials for new compounds and comes with an active placebo and an optional active comparator.

Rating the methodological quality of single-subject designs and n-of-1 trials: introducing the Single-Case Experimental Design (SCED) Scale.

PubMed

Tate, Robyn L; McDonald, Skye; Perdices, Michael; Togher, Leanne; Schultz, Regina; Savage, Sharon

2008-08-01

Rating scales that assess methodological quality of clinical trials provide a means to critically appraise the literature. Scales are currently available to rate randomised and non-randomised controlled trials, but there are none that assess single-subject designs. The Single-Case Experimental Design (SCED) Scale was developed for this purpose and evaluated for reliability. Six clinical researchers who were trained and experienced in rating methodological quality of clinical trials developed the scale and participated in reliability studies. The SCED Scale is an 11-item rating scale for single-subject designs, of which 10 items are used to assess methodological quality and use of statistical analysis. The scale was developed and refined over a 3-year period. Content validity was addressed by identifying items to reduce the main sources of bias in single-case methodology as stipulated by authorities in the field, which were empirically tested against 85 published reports. Inter-rater reliability was assessed using a random sample of 20/312 single-subject reports archived in the Psychological Database of Brain Impairment Treatment Efficacy (PsycBITE). Inter-rater reliability for the total score was excellent, both for individual raters (overall ICC = 0.84; 95% confidence interval 0.73-0.92) and for consensus ratings between pairs of raters (overall ICC = 0.88; 95% confidence interval 0.78-0.95). Item reliability was fair to excellent for consensus ratings between pairs of raters (range k = 0.48 to 1.00). The results were replicated with two independent novice raters who were trained in the use of the scale (ICC = 0.88, 95% confidence interval 0.73-0.95). The SCED Scale thus provides a brief and valid evaluation of methodological quality of single-subject designs, with the total score demonstrating excellent inter-rater reliability using both individual and consensus ratings. Items from the scale can also be used as a checklist in the design, reporting and critical appraisal of single-subject designs, thereby assisting to improve standards of single-case methodology.

The interaction between cannabis use and the Val158Met polymorphism of the COMT gene in psychosis: A transdiagnostic meta – analysis

PubMed Central

Schäfer, Annika Theresia; Damen, Thomas; Uittenboogaard, Aniek; Krolinski, Pauline; Nwosu, Chinyere Vicky; Pinckaers, Florentina Maria Egidius; Rotee, Iris Leah Marije; Ermiş, Ayşegül; Kennedy, James L.; Nieman, Dorien H.; Tiwari, Arun; van Os, Jim

2018-01-01

Background Neither environmental nor genetic factors are sufficient to predict the transdiagnostic expression of psychosis. Therefore, analysis of gene-environment interactions may be productive. Objective A meta-analysis was performed using papers investigating the interaction between cannabis use and catechol-O-methyl transferase (COMT) polymorphism Val158Met (COMTVal158Met). Data sources PubMed, Embase, PsychInfo. Study eligibility criteria All observational studies assessing the interaction between COMTVal158Met and cannabis with any psychosis or psychotic symptoms measure as an outcome. Study appraisal and synthesis methods A meta-analysis was performed using the Meta-analysis of Observational Studies in Epidemiology guidelines and forest plots were generated. Thirteen articles met the selection criteria: 7 clinical studies using a case-only design, 3 clinical studies with a dichotomous outcome, and 3 studies analysing a continuous outcome of psychotic symptoms below the threshold of psychotic disorder. The three study types were analysed separately. Validity of the included studies was assessed using "A Cochrane Risk of Bias Assessment Tool: for Non-Randomized Studies of Interventions". Results For case-only studies, a significant interaction was found between cannabis use and COMTVal158Met, with an OR of 1.45 (95% Confidence Interval = 1.05–2.00; Met/Met as the risk genotype). However, there was no evidence for interaction in either the studies including dichotomous outcomes (B = -0.51, 95% Confidence Interval -1.72, 0.70) or the studies including continuous outcomes (B = -0.04 95% Confidence Interval -0.16–0.08). Limitation A substantial part of the included studies used the case-only design, which has lower validity and tends to overestimate true effects. Conclusion The interaction term between cannabis use and COMTVal158Met was only statistically significant in the case-only studies, but not in studies using other clinical or non-clinical psychosis outcomes. Future additional high quality studies might change current perspectives, yet currently evidence for the interaction remains unconvincing. PMID:29444152

A comparison of confidence interval methods for the intraclass correlation coefficient in community-based cluster randomization trials with a binary outcome.

PubMed

Braschel, Melissa C; Svec, Ivana; Darlington, Gerarda A; Donner, Allan

2016-04-01

Many investigators rely on previously published point estimates of the intraclass correlation coefficient rather than on their associated confidence intervals to determine the required size of a newly planned cluster randomized trial. Although confidence interval methods for the intraclass correlation coefficient that can be applied to community-based trials have been developed for a continuous outcome variable, fewer methods exist for a binary outcome variable. The aim of this study is to evaluate confidence interval methods for the intraclass correlation coefficient applied to binary outcomes in community intervention trials enrolling a small number of large clusters. Existing methods for confidence interval construction are examined and compared to a new ad hoc approach based on dividing clusters into a large number of smaller sub-clusters and subsequently applying existing methods to the resulting data. Monte Carlo simulation is used to assess the width and coverage of confidence intervals for the intraclass correlation coefficient based on Smith's large sample approximation of the standard error of the one-way analysis of variance estimator, an inverted modified Wald test for the Fleiss-Cuzick estimator, and intervals constructed using a bootstrap-t applied to a variance-stabilizing transformation of the intraclass correlation coefficient estimate. In addition, a new approach is applied in which clusters are randomly divided into a large number of smaller sub-clusters with the same methods applied to these data (with the exception of the bootstrap-t interval, which assumes large cluster sizes). These methods are also applied to a cluster randomized trial on adolescent tobacco use for illustration. When applied to a binary outcome variable in a small number of large clusters, existing confidence interval methods for the intraclass correlation coefficient provide poor coverage. However, confidence intervals constructed using the new approach combined with Smith's method provide nominal or close to nominal coverage when the intraclass correlation coefficient is small (<0.05), as is the case in most community intervention trials. This study concludes that when a binary outcome variable is measured in a small number of large clusters, confidence intervals for the intraclass correlation coefficient may be constructed by dividing existing clusters into sub-clusters (e.g. groups of 5) and using Smith's method. The resulting confidence intervals provide nominal or close to nominal coverage across a wide range of parameters when the intraclass correlation coefficient is small (<0.05). Application of this method should provide investigators with a better understanding of the uncertainty associated with a point estimator of the intraclass correlation coefficient used for determining the sample size needed for a newly designed community-based trial. © The Author(s) 2015.

Facebook and Twitter vaccine sentiment in response to measles outbreaks.

PubMed

Deiner, Michael S; Fathy, Cherie; Kim, Jessica; Niemeyer, Katherine; Ramirez, David; Ackley, Sarah F; Liu, Fengchen; Lietman, Thomas M; Porco, Travis C

2017-11-01

Social media posts regarding measles vaccination were classified as pro-vaccination, expressing vaccine hesitancy, uncertain, or irrelevant. Spearman correlations with Centers for Disease Control and Prevention-reported measles cases and differenced smoothed cumulative case counts over this period were reported (using time series bootstrap confidence intervals). A total of 58,078 Facebook posts and 82,993 tweets were identified from 4 January 2009 to 27 August 2016. Pro-vaccination posts were correlated with the US weekly reported cases (Facebook: Spearman correlation 0.22 (95% confidence interval: 0.09 to 0.34), Twitter: 0.21 (95% confidence interval: 0.06 to 0.34)). Vaccine-hesitant posts, however, were uncorrelated with measles cases in the United States (Facebook: 0.01 (95% confidence interval: -0.13 to 0.14), Twitter: 0.0011 (95% confidence interval: -0.12 to 0.12)). These findings may result from more consistent social media engagement by individuals expressing vaccine hesitancy, contrasted with media- or event-driven episodic interest on the part of individuals favoring current policy.

Exact Scheffé-type confidence intervals for output from groundwater flow models: 1. Use of hydrogeologic information

USGS Publications Warehouse

Cooley, Richard L.

1993-01-01

A new method is developed to efficiently compute exact Scheffé-type confidence intervals for output (or other function of parameters) g(β) derived from a groundwater flow model. The method is general in that parameter uncertainty can be specified by any statistical distribution having a log probability density function (log pdf) that can be expanded in a Taylor series. However, for this study parameter uncertainty is specified by a statistical multivariate beta distribution that incorporates hydrogeologic information in the form of the investigator's best estimates of parameters and a grouping of random variables representing possible parameter values so that each group is defined by maximum and minimum bounds and an ordering according to increasing value. The new method forms the confidence intervals from maximum and minimum limits of g(β) on a contour of a linear combination of (1) the quadratic form for the parameters used by Cooley and Vecchia (1987) and (2) the log pdf for the multivariate beta distribution. Three example problems are used to compare characteristics of the confidence intervals for hydraulic head obtained using different weights for the linear combination. Different weights generally produced similar confidence intervals, whereas the method of Cooley and Vecchia (1987) often produced much larger confidence intervals.

A confidence interval analysis of sampling effort, sequencing depth, and taxonomic resolution of fungal community ecology in the era of high-throughput sequencing.

PubMed

Oono, Ryoko

2017-01-01

High-throughput sequencing technology has helped microbial community ecologists explore ecological and evolutionary patterns at unprecedented scales. The benefits of a large sample size still typically outweigh that of greater sequencing depths per sample for accurate estimations of ecological inferences. However, excluding or not sequencing rare taxa may mislead the answers to the questions 'how and why are communities different?' This study evaluates the confidence intervals of ecological inferences from high-throughput sequencing data of foliar fungal endophytes as case studies through a range of sampling efforts, sequencing depths, and taxonomic resolutions to understand how technical and analytical practices may affect our interpretations. Increasing sampling size reliably decreased confidence intervals across multiple community comparisons. However, the effects of sequencing depths on confidence intervals depended on how rare taxa influenced the dissimilarity estimates among communities and did not significantly decrease confidence intervals for all community comparisons. A comparison of simulated communities under random drift suggests that sequencing depths are important in estimating dissimilarities between microbial communities under neutral selective processes. Confidence interval analyses reveal important biases as well as biological trends in microbial community studies that otherwise may be ignored when communities are only compared for statistically significant differences.

The Applicability of Confidence Intervals of Quantiles for the Generalized Logistic Distribution

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shin, H.; Heo, J.; Kim, T.; Jung, Y.

2007-12-01

The generalized logistic (GL) distribution has been widely used for frequency analysis. However, there is a little study related to the confidence intervals that indicate the prediction accuracy of distribution for the GL distribution. In this paper, the estimation of the confidence intervals of quantiles for the GL distribution is presented based on the method of moments (MOM), maximum likelihood (ML), and probability weighted moments (PWM) and the asymptotic variances of each quantile estimator are derived as functions of the sample sizes, return periods, and parameters. Monte Carlo simulation experiments are also performed to verify the applicability of the derived confidence intervals of quantile. As the results, the relative bias (RBIAS) and relative root mean square error (RRMSE) of the confidence intervals generally increase as return period increases and reverse as sample size increases. And PWM for estimating the confidence intervals performs better than the other methods in terms of RRMSE when the data is almost symmetric while ML shows the smallest RBIAS and RRMSE when the data is more skewed and sample size is moderately large. The GL model was applied to fit the distribution of annual maximum rainfall data. The results show that there are little differences in the estimated quantiles between ML and PWM while distinct differences in MOM.

A confidence interval analysis of sampling effort, sequencing depth, and taxonomic resolution of fungal community ecology in the era of high-throughput sequencing

PubMed Central

2017-01-01

High-throughput sequencing technology has helped microbial community ecologists explore ecological and evolutionary patterns at unprecedented scales. The benefits of a large sample size still typically outweigh that of greater sequencing depths per sample for accurate estimations of ecological inferences. However, excluding or not sequencing rare taxa may mislead the answers to the questions ‘how and why are communities different?’ This study evaluates the confidence intervals of ecological inferences from high-throughput sequencing data of foliar fungal endophytes as case studies through a range of sampling efforts, sequencing depths, and taxonomic resolutions to understand how technical and analytical practices may affect our interpretations. Increasing sampling size reliably decreased confidence intervals across multiple community comparisons. However, the effects of sequencing depths on confidence intervals depended on how rare taxa influenced the dissimilarity estimates among communities and did not significantly decrease confidence intervals for all community comparisons. A comparison of simulated communities under random drift suggests that sequencing depths are important in estimating dissimilarities between microbial communities under neutral selective processes. Confidence interval analyses reveal important biases as well as biological trends in microbial community studies that otherwise may be ignored when communities are only compared for statistically significant differences. PMID:29253889

Serum prolactin revisited: parametric reference intervals and cross platform evaluation of polyethylene glycol precipitation-based methods for discrimination between hyperprolactinemia and macroprolactinemia.

PubMed

Overgaard, Martin; Pedersen, Susanne Møller

2017-10-26

Hyperprolactinemia diagnosis and treatment is often compromised by the presence of biologically inactive and clinically irrelevant higher-molecular-weight complexes of prolactin, macroprolactin. The objective of this study was to evaluate the performance of two macroprolactin screening regimes across commonly used automated immunoassay platforms. Parametric total and monomeric gender-specific reference intervals were determined for six immunoassay methods using female (n=96) and male sera (n=127) from healthy donors. The reference intervals were validated using 27 hyperprolactinemic and macroprolactinemic sera, whose presence of monomeric and macroforms of prolactin were determined using gel filtration chromatography (GFC). Normative data for six prolactin assays included the range of values (2.5th-97.5th percentiles). Validation sera (hyperprolactinemic and macroprolactinemic; n=27) showed higher discordant classification [mean=2.8; 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.2-4.4] for the monomer reference interval method compared to the post-polyethylene glycol (PEG) recovery cutoff method (mean=1.8; 95% CI 0.8-2.8). The two monomer/macroprolactin discrimination methods did not differ significantly (p=0.089). Among macroprolactinemic sera evaluated by both discrimination methods, the Cobas and Architect/Kryptor prolactin assays showed the lowest and the highest number of misclassifications, respectively. Current automated immunoassays for prolactin testing require macroprolactin screening methods based on PEG precipitation in order to discriminate truly from falsely elevated serum prolactin. While the recovery cutoff and monomeric reference interval macroprolactin screening methods demonstrate similar discriminative ability, the latter method also provides the clinician with an easy interpretable monomeric prolactin concentration along with a monomeric reference interval.

Primary repair of penetrating colon injuries: a systematic review.

PubMed

Singer, Marc A; Nelson, Richard L

2002-12-01

Primary repair of penetrating colon injuries is an appealing management option; however, uncertainty about its safety persists. This study was conducted to compare the morbidity and mortality of primary repair with fecal diversion in the management of penetrating colon injuries by use of a meta-analysis of randomized, prospective trials. We searched for prospective, randomized trials in MEDLINE (1966 to November 2001), the Cochrane Library, and EMBase using the terms colon, penetrating, injury, colostomy, prospective, and randomized. Studies were included if they were randomized, controlled trials that compared the outcomes of primary repair with fecal diversion in the management of penetrating colon injuries. Five studies were included. Reviewers performed data extraction independently. Outcomes evaluated from each trial included mortality, total complications, infectious complications, intra-abdominal infections, wound complications, penetrating abdominal trauma index, and length of stay. Peto odds ratios for combined effect were calculated with a 95 percent confidence interval for each outcome. Heterogeneity was also assessed for each outcome. The penetrating abdominal trauma index of included subjects did not differ significantly between studies. Mortality was not significantly different between groups (odds ratio, 1.70; 95 percent confidence interval, 0.51-5.66). However, total complications (odds ratio, 0.28; 95 percent confidence interval, 0.18-0.42), total infectious complications (odds ratio, 0.41; 95 percent confidence interval, 0.27-0.63), abdominal infections including dehiscence (odds ratio, 0.59; 95 percent confidence interval, 0.38-0.94), abdominal infections excluding dehiscence (odds ratio, 0.52; 95 percent confidence interval, 0.31-0.86), wound complications including dehiscence (odds ratio, 0.55; 95 percent confidence interval, 0.34-0.89), and wound complications excluding dehiscence (odds ratio, 0.43; 95 percent confidence interval, 0.25-0.76) all significantly favored primary repair. Meta-analysis of currently published randomized, controlled trials favors primary repair over fecal diversion for penetrating colon injuries.

Bullying and mental health and suicidal behaviour among 14- to 15-year-olds in a representative sample of Australian children.

PubMed

Ford, Rebecca; King, Tania; Priest, Naomi; Kavanagh, Anne

2017-09-01

To provide the first Australian population-based estimates of the association between bullying and adverse mental health outcomes and suicidality among Australian adolescents. Analysis of data from 3537 adolescents, aged 14-15 years from Wave 6 of the K-cohort of Longitudinal Study of Australian Children was conducted. We used Poisson and linear regression to estimate associations between bullying type (none, relational-verbal, physical, both types) and role (no role, victim, bully, victim and bully), and mental health (measured by the Strengths and Difficulties Questionnaire, symptoms of anxiety and depression) and suicidality. Adolescents involved in bullying had significantly increased Strengths and Difficulties Questionnaire, depression and anxiety scores in all bullying roles and types. In terms of self-harm and suicidality, bully-victims had the highest risk of self-harm (prevalence rate ratio 4.7, 95% confidence interval [3.26, 6.83]), suicidal ideation (prevalence rate ratio 4.3, 95% confidence interval [2.83, 6.49]), suicidal plan (prevalence rate ratio 4.1, 95% confidence interval [2.54, 6.58]) and attempts (prevalence rate ratio 2.7, 95% confidence interval [1.39, 5.13]), followed by victims then bullies. The experience of both relational-verbal and physical bullying was associated with the highest risk of self-harm (prevalence rate ratio 4.6, 95% confidence interval [3.15, 6.60]), suicidal ideation or plans (prevalence rate ratio 4.6, 95% confidence interval [3.05, 6.95]; and 4.8, 95% confidence interval [3.01, 7.64], respectively) or suicide attempts (prevalence rate ratio 3.5, 95% confidence interval [1.90, 6.30]). This study presents the first national, population-based estimates of the associations between bullying by peers and mental health outcomes in Australian adolescents. The markedly increased risk of poor mental health outcomes, self-harm and suicidal ideation and behaviours among adolescents who experienced bullying highlights the importance of addressing bullying in school settings.

Ethnic variations in morbidity and mortality from lower respiratory tract infections: a retrospective cohort study

PubMed Central

Steiner, Markus FC; Cezard, Genevieve; Bansal, Narinder; Fischbacher, Colin; Douglas, Anne; Bhopal, Raj; Sheikh, Aziz

2015-01-01

Objective There is evidence of substantial ethnic variations in asthma morbidity and the risk of hospitalisation, but the picture in relation to lower respiratory tract infections is unclear. We carried out an observational study to identify ethnic group differences for lower respiratory tract infections. Design A retrospective, cohort study. Setting Scotland. Participants 4.65 million people on whom information was available from the 2001 census, followed from May 2001 to April 2010. Main outcome measures Hospitalisations and deaths (any time following first hospitalisation) from lower respiratory tract infections, adjusted risk ratios and hazard ratios by ethnicity and sex were calculated. We multiplied ratios and confidence intervals by 100, so the reference Scottish White population’s risk ratio and hazard ratio was 100. Results Among men, adjusted risk ratios for lower respiratory tract infection hospitalisation were lower in Other White British (80, 95% confidence interval 73–86) and Chinese (69, 95% confidence interval 56–84) populations and higher in Pakistani groups (152, 95% confidence interval 136–169). In women, results were mostly similar to those in men (e.g. Chinese 68, 95% confidence interval 56–82), although higher adjusted risk ratios were found among women of the Other South Asians group (145, 95% confidence interval 120–175). Survival (adjusted hazard ratio) following lower respiratory tract infection for Pakistani men (54, 95% confidence interval 39–74) and women (31, 95% confidence interval 18–53) was better than the reference population. Conclusions Substantial differences in the rates of lower respiratory tract infections amongst different ethnic groups in Scotland were found. Pakistani men and women had particularly high rates of lower respiratory tract infection hospitalisation. The reasons behind the high rates of lower respiratory tract infection in the Pakistani community are now required. PMID:26152675

Diagnostic accuracy of the Amsler grid and the preferential hyperacuity perimetry in the screening of patients with age-related macular degeneration: systematic review and meta-analysis.

PubMed

Faes, L; Bodmer, N S; Bachmann, L M; Thiel, M A; Schmid, M K

2014-07-01

To clarify the screening potential of the Amsler grid and preferential hyperacuity perimetry (PHP) in detecting or ruling out wet age-related macular degeneration (AMD). Medline, Scopus and Web of Science (by citation of reference) were searched. Checking of reference lists of review articles and of included articles complemented electronic searches. Papers were selected, assessed, and extracted in duplicate. Systematic review and meta-analysis. Twelve included studies enrolled 903 patients and allowed constructing 27 two-by-two tables. Twelve tables reported on the Amsler grid and its modifications, twelve tables reported on the PHP, one table assessed the MCPT and two tables assessed the M-charts. All but two studies had a case-control design. The pooled sensitivity of studies assessing the Amsler grid was 0.78 (95% confidence intervals; 0.64-0.87), and the pooled specificity was 0.97 (95% confidence intervals; 0.91-0.99). The corresponding positive and negative likelihood ratios were 23.1 (95% confidence intervals; 8.4-64.0) and 0.23 (95% confidence intervals; 0.14-0.39), respectively. The pooled sensitivity of studies assessing the PHP was 0.85 (95% confidence intervals; 0.80-0.89), and specificity was 0.87 (95% confidence intervals; 0.82-0.91). The corresponding positive and negative likelihood ratios were 6.7 (95% confidence intervals; 4.6-9.8) and 0.17 (95% confidence intervals; 0.13-0.23). No pooling was possible for MCPT and M-charts. Results from small preliminary studies show promising test performance characteristics both for the Amsler grid and PHP to rule out wet AMD in the screening setting. To what extent these findings can be transferred to a real clinic practice still needs to be established.

Nonresponse to 17-alpha hydroxyprogesterone caproate for recurrent spontaneous preterm birth prevention: clinical prediction and generation of a risk scoring system.

PubMed

Manuck, Tracy A; Stoddard, Gregory J; Fry, Rebecca C; Esplin, M Sean; Varner, Michael W

2016-11-01

Spontaneous preterm birth remains a leading cause of neonatal morbidity and mortality among nonanomalous neonates in the United States. Spontaneous preterm birth tends to recur at similar gestational ages. Intramuscular 17-alpha hydroxyprogesterone caproate reduces the risk of recurrent spontaneous preterm birth. Unfortunately, one-third of high-risk women will have a recurrent spontaneous preterm birth despite 17-alpha hydroxyprogesterone caproate therapy; the reasons for this variability in response are unknown. We hypothesized that clinical factors among women treated with 17-alpha hydroxyprogesterone caproate who suffer recurrent spontaneous preterm birth at a similar gestational age differ from women who deliver later, and that these associations could be used to generate a clinical scoring system to predict 17-alpha hydroxyprogesterone caproate response. Secondary analysis of a prospective, multicenter, randomized controlled trial enrolling women with ≥1 previous singleton spontaneous preterm birth <37 weeks' gestation. Participants received daily omega-3 supplementation or placebo for the prevention of recurrent preterm birth; all were provided 17-alpha hydroxyprogesterone caproate. Women were classified as a 17-alpha hydroxyprogesterone caproate responder or nonresponder by calculating the difference in delivery gestational age between the 17-alpha hydroxyprogesterone caproate-treated pregnancy and her earliest previous spontaneous preterm birth. Responders were women with pregnancy extending ≥3 weeks later compared with the delivery gestational age of their earliest previous preterm birth; nonresponders delivered earlier or within 3 weeks of the gestational age of their earliest previous preterm birth. A risk score for nonresponse to 17-alpha hydroxyprogesterone caproate was generated from regression models via the use of clinical predictors and was validated in an independent population. Data were analyzed with multivariable logistic regression. A total of 754 women met inclusion criteria; 159 (21%) were nonresponders. Responders delivered later on average (37.7±2.5 weeks) than nonresponders (31.5±5.3 weeks), P<.001. Among responders, 27% had a recurrent spontaneous preterm birth (vs 100% of nonresponders). Demographic characteristics were similar between responders and nonresponders. In a multivariable logistic regression model, independent risk factors for nonresponse to 17-alpha hydroxyprogesterone caproate were each additional week of gestation of the earliest previous preterm birth (odds ratio, 1.23; 95% confidence interval, 1.17-1.30, P<.001), placental abruption or significant vaginal bleeding (odds ratio, 5.60; 95% confidence interval, 2.46-12.71, P<.001), gonorrhea and/or chlamydia in the current pregnancy (odds ratio, 3.59; 95% confidence interval, 1.36-9.48, P=.010), carriage of a male fetus (odds ratio, 1.51; 95% confidence interval, 1.02-2.24, P=.040), and a penultimate preterm birth (odds ratio, 2.10; 95% confidence interval, 1.03-4.25, P=.041). These clinical factors were used to generate a risk score for nonresponse to 17-alpha hydroxyprogesterone caproate as follows: black +1, male fetus +1, penultimate preterm birth +2, gonorrhea/chlamydia +4, placental abruption +5, earliest previous preterm birth was 32-36 weeks +5. A total risk score >6 was 78% sensitive and 60% specific for predicting nonresponse to 17-alpha hydroxyprogesterone caproate (area under the curve=0.69). This scoring system was validated in an independent population of 287 women; in the validation set, a total risk score >6 performed similarly with a 65% sensitivity, 67% specificity and area under the curve of 0.66. Several clinical characteristics define women at risk for recurrent preterm birth at a similar gestational age despite 17-alpha hydroxyprogesterone caproate therapy and can be used to generate a clinical risk predictor score. These data should be refined and confirmed in other cohorts, and women at high risk for nonresponse should be targets for novel therapeutic intervention studies. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Concurrent criterion validity of the safe driving behavior measure: a predictor of on-road driving outcomes.

PubMed

Classen, Sherrilene; Wang, Yanning; Winter, Sandra M; Velozo, Craig A; Lanford, Desiree N; Bédard, Michel

2013-01-01

We determined the concurrent criterion validity of the Safe Driving Behavior Measure (SDBM) for on-road outcomes (passing or failing the on-road test as determined by a certified driving rehabilitation specialist) among older drivers and their family members-caregivers. On the basis of ratings from 168 older drivers and 168 family members-caregivers, we calculated receiver operating characteristic curves. The drivers' area under the curve (AUC) was .620 (95% confidence interval [CI] = .514-.725, p = .043). The family members-caregivers' AUC was .726 (95% CI = .622-.829, p ≤ .01). Older drivers' ratings showed statistically significant yet poor concurrent criterion validity, but family members-caregivers' ratings showed good concurrent criterion validity for the criterion on-road driving test. Continuing research with a more representative sample is being pursued to confirm the SDBM's concurrent criterion validity. This screening tool may be useful for generalist practitioners to use in making decisions regarding driving. Copyright © 2013 by the American Occupational Therapy Association, Inc.

Concurrent Criterion Validity of the Safe Driving Behavior Measure: A Predictor of On-Road Driving Outcomes

PubMed Central

Wang, Yanning; Winter, Sandra M.; Velozo, Craig A.; Lanford, Desiree N.; Bédard, Michel

2013-01-01

We determined the concurrent criterion validity of the Safe Driving Behavior Measure (SDBM) for on-road outcomes (passing or failing the on-road test as determined by a certified driving rehabilitation specialist) among older drivers and their family members–caregivers. On the basis of ratings from 168 older drivers and 168 family members–caregivers, we calculated receiver operating characteristic curves. The drivers’ area under the curve (AUC) was .620 (95% confidence interval [CI] = .514–.725, p = .043). The family members–caregivers’ AUC was .726 (95% CI = .622–.829, p ≤ .01). Older drivers’ ratings showed statistically significant yet poor concurrent criterion validity, but family members–caregivers’ ratings showed good concurrent criterion validity for the criterion on-road driving test. Continuing research with a more representative sample is being pursued to confirm the SDBM’s concurrent criterion validity. This screening tool may be useful for generalist practitioners to use in making decisions regarding driving. PMID:23245789

The seated medicine ball throw as a test of upper body power in older adults.

PubMed

Harris, Chad; Wattles, Andrew P; DeBeliso, Mark; Sevene-Adams, Patricia G; Berning, Joseph M; Adams, Kent J

2011-08-01

Practitioners training the older adult may benefit from a low-cost, easy-to-administer field test of upper body power. This study evaluated validity and reliability of the seated medicine ball throw (SMBT) in older adults. Subjects (n = 33; age 72.4 ± 5.2 years) completed 6 trials of an SMBT in each of 2 testing days and 2 ball masses (1.5 and 3.0 kg). Subjects also completed 6 trials of an explosive push-up (EPU) on a force plate over 2 testing days. Validity was assessed via a Pearson Product-Moment correlation (PPM) between SMBT and EPU maximal vertical force. Reliability of the SMBT was determined using PPMs (r), Intraclass correlation (ICC, R) and Bland-Altman plots (BAPs). For validity, the association between the SMBT and the EPU revealed a PPM of r = 0.641 and r = 0.614 for the 1.5- and 3.0-kg medicine balls, respectively. Test-retest reliability of the 1.5- and 3.0-kg SMBT was r = 0.967 and r = 0.958, respectively. The ICC values of the 1.5- and 3.0-kg SMBT were R = 0.994 and 0.989, respectively. The BAPs revealed 94% of the differences between day 1 and 2 scores were within the 95% confidence interval of the mean difference. Test-retest reliability for the EPU was r = 0.944, R = 0.969. The BAPs showed 94% of the differences between day 1 and 2 scores were within the 95% confidence interval of the mean difference, for both medicine ball throws. In conclusion, for the older adult, the SMBT appears to be highly reliable test of upper body power. Its validity relative to the maximal force exerted during the EPU is modest. The SMBT is an inexpensive, safe, and repeatable measure of upper body power for the older adult.

Defining when to initiate massive transfusion: a validation study of individual massive transfusion triggers in PROMMTT patients.

PubMed

Callcut, Rachael A; Cotton, Bryan A; Muskat, Peter; Fox, Erin E; Wade, Charles E; Holcomb, John B; Schreiber, Martin A; Rahbar, Mohammad H; Cohen, Mitchell J; Knudson, M Margaret; Brasel, Karen J; Bulger, Eileen M; Del Junco, Deborah J; Myers, John G; Alarcon, Louis H; Robinson, Bryce R H

2013-01-01

Early predictors of massive transfusion (MT) would prevent undertriage of patients likely to require MT. This study validates triggers using the Prospective Observational Multicenter Major Trauma Transfusion (PROMMTT) study. All enrolled patients in PROMMTT were analyzed. The initial emergency department value for each trigger (international normalized ratio [INR], systolic blood pressure, hemoglobin, base deficit, positive result for Focused Assessment for the Sonography of Trauma examination, heart rate, temperature, and penetrating injury mechanism) was compared for patients receiving MT (≥ 10 U of packed red blood cells in 24 hours) versus no MT. Adjusted odds ratios (ORs) for MT are reported using multiple logistic regression. If all triggers were known, a Massive Transfusion Score (MTS) was created, with 1 point assigned for each met trigger. A total of 1,245 patients were prospectively enrolled with 297 receiving an MT. Data were available for all triggers in 66% of the patients including 67% of the MTs (199 of 297). INR was known in 87% (1,081 of 1,245). All triggers except penetrating injury mechanism and heart rate were valid individual predictors of MT, with INR as the most predictive (adjusted OR, 2.5; 95% confidence interval, 1.7-3.7). For those with all triggers known, a positive INR trigger was seen in 49% receiving MT. Patients with an MTS of less than 2 were unlikely to receive MT (negative predictive value, 89%). If any two triggers were present (MTS ≥ 2), sensitivity for predicting MT was 85%. MT was present in 33% with an MTS of 2 greater compared with 11% of those with MTS of less than 2 (OR, 3.9; 95% confidence interval, 2.6-5.8; p < 0.0005). Parameters that can be obtained early in the initial emergency department evaluation are valid predictors for determining the likelihood of MT. Diagnostic, level II.

The Bronchiectasis Severity Index. An International Derivation and Validation Study

PubMed Central

Goeminne, Pieter; Aliberti, Stefano; McDonnell, Melissa J.; Lonni, Sara; Davidson, John; Poppelwell, Lucy; Salih, Waleed; Pesci, Alberto; Dupont, Lieven J.; Fardon, Thomas C.; De Soyza, Anthony; Hill, Adam T.

2014-01-01

Rationale: There are no risk stratification tools for morbidity and mortality in bronchiectasis. Identifying patients at risk of exacerbations, hospital admissions, and mortality is vital for future research. Objectives: This study describes the derivation and validation of the Bronchiectasis Severity Index (BSI). Methods: Derivation of the BSI used data from a prospective cohort study (Edinburgh, UK, 2008–2012) enrolling 608 patients. Cox proportional hazard regression was used to identify independent predictors of mortality and hospitalization over 4-year follow-up. The score was validated in independent cohorts from Dundee, UK (n = 218); Leuven, Belgium (n = 253); Monza, Italy (n = 105); and Newcastle, UK (n = 126). Measurements and Main Results: Independent predictors of future hospitalization were prior hospital admissions, Medical Research Council dyspnea score greater than or equal to 4, FEV1 < 30% predicted, Pseudomonas aeruginosa colonization, colonization with other pathogenic organisms, and three or more lobes involved on high-resolution computed tomography. Independent predictors of mortality were older age, low FEV1, lower body mass index, prior hospitalization, and three or more exacerbations in the year before the study. The derived BSI predicted mortality and hospitalization: area under the receiver operator characteristic curve (AUC) 0.80 (95% confidence interval, 0.74–0.86) for mortality and AUC 0.88 (95% confidence interval, 0.84–0.91) for hospitalization, respectively. There was a clear difference in exacerbation frequency and quality of life using the St. George’s Respiratory Questionnaire between patients classified as low, intermediate, and high risk by the score (P < 0.0001 for all comparisons). In the validation cohorts, the AUC for mortality ranged from 0.81 to 0.84 and for hospitalization from 0.80 to 0.88. Conclusions: The BSI is a useful clinical predictive tool that identifies patients at risk of future mortality, hospitalization, and exacerbations across healthcare systems. PMID:24328736

The Modified Low Back Pain Disability Questionnaire: Reliability, Validity, and Responsiveness of a Dutch Language Version.

PubMed

Denteneer, Lenie; Van Daele, Ulrike; Truijen, Steven; De Hertogh, Willem; Meirte, Jill; Deckers, Kristiaan; Stassijns, Gaetane

2018-03-01

Cross-sectional study. The goal of this study is to translate the English version of the Modified Low Back Pain Disability Questionnaire (MDQ) into a Dutch version and investigate its clinimetric properties for patients with nonspecific chronic low back pain (CLBP). Fritz et al (2001) developed a modified version of the Oswestry Disability Questionnaire (ODI) to assess functional status and named it the MDQ. In this version, a question regarding employment and homemaking ability was substituted for the question related to sex life. Good clinimetric properties for the MDQ were identified but up until now it is not clear whether the clinimetric properties of the MDQ would change if it was translated into a Dutch version. Translation of the MDQ into Dutch was done in 4 steps. Test-retest reliability was investigated using the intraclass correlation coefficient (ICC) model. Validity was calculated using Pearson correlations and a 2-way analysis of variance for repeated measures. Finally, responsiveness was calculated with the area under the curve (AUC), minimal detectable change (MDC), and the standardized response mean (SRM). A total of 80 completed questionnaires were collected in 3 different hospitals and a total of 43 patients finished a 9 weeks intervention period, completing the retest. Test-retest reliability was excellent with an ICC of 0.89 (95% confidence interval [CI], 0.74-0.95). To confirm the convergent validity, the MDQ answered all predefined hypothesises (r = -0.65-0.69/P = 0.01-0.00) and good results for construct validity were found (P = 0.02). The MDQ had an AUC of 0.64 (95% confidence interval [CI], 0.47-0.81), an MDC of 8.80 points, and a SRM of 0.65. The Dutch version of the MDQ shows good clinimetric properties and is shown to be usable in the assessment of the functional status of Dutch-speaking patients with nonspecific CLBP. 3.

Reliability and diagnostic validity of the slump knee bend neurodynamic test for upper/mid lumbar nerve root compression: a pilot study.

PubMed

Trainor, Kate; Pinnington, Mark A

2011-03-01

It has been proposed that neurodynamic examination can assist differential diagnosis of upper/mid lumbar nerve root compression; however, the diagnostic validity of many of these tests has yet to be established. This pilot study aimed to establish the diagnostic validity of the slump knee bend neurodynamic test for upper/mid lumbar nerve root compression in subjects with suspected lumbosacral radicular pain. Two independent examiners performed the slump knee bend test on subjects with radicular leg pain. Inter-tester reliability was calculated using the kappa coefficient. Slump knee bend test results were compared with magnetic resonance imaging findings, and diagnostic accuracy measures were calculated including sensitivity, specificity, predictive values and likelihood ratios. Orthopaedic spinal clinic, secondary care. Sixteen patients with radicular leg pain. All four subjects with mid lumbar nerve root compression on magnetic resonance imaging were correctly identified with the slump knee bend test; however, it was falsely positive in two individuals without the condition. Inter-tester reliability for the slump knee bend test using the kappa coefficient was 0.71 (95% confidence interval 0.33 to 1.0). Diagnostic validity calculations for the slump knee bend test (95% confidence intervals) were: sensitivity, 100% (40 to 100%); specificity, 83% (52 to 98%); positive predictive value, 67% (22 to 96%); negative predictive value, 100% (69 to 100%); positive likelihood ratio, 6.0 (1.58 to 19.4); and negative likelihood ratio, 0 (0 to 0.6). Results indicate good inter-tester reliability and suggest that the slump knee bend test has potential to be a useful clinical test for identifying patients with mid lumbar nerve root compression. Further investigation is needed on larger numbers of patients to confirm these findings. Copyright © 2010 Chartered Society of Physiotherapy. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Performance of an automated electronic acute lung injury screening system in intensive care unit patients.

PubMed

Koenig, Helen C; Finkel, Barbara B; Khalsa, Satjeet S; Lanken, Paul N; Prasad, Meeta; Urbani, Richard; Fuchs, Barry D

2011-01-01

Lung protective ventilation reduces mortality in patients with acute lung injury, but underrecognition of acute lung injury has limited its use. We recently validated an automated electronic acute lung injury surveillance system in patients with major trauma in a single intensive care unit. In this study, we assessed the system's performance as a prospective acute lung injury screening tool in a diverse population of intensive care unit patients. Patients were screened prospectively for acute lung injury over 21 wks by the automated system and by an experienced research coordinator who manually screened subjects for enrollment in Acute Respiratory Distress Syndrome Clinical Trials Network (ARDSNet) trials. Performance of the automated system was assessed by comparing its results with the manual screening process. Discordant results were adjudicated blindly by two physician reviewers. In addition, a sensitivity analysis using a range of assumptions was conducted to better estimate the system's performance. The Hospital of the University of Pennsylvania, an academic medical center and ARDSNet center (1994-2006). Intubated patients in medical and surgical intensive care units. None. Of 1270 patients screened, 84 were identified with acute lung injury (incidence of 6.6%). The automated screening system had a sensitivity of 97.6% (95% confidence interval, 96.8-98.4%) and a specificity of 97.6% (95% confidence interval, 96.8-98.4%). The manual screening algorithm had a sensitivity of 57.1% (95% confidence interval, 54.5-59.8%) and a specificity of 99.7% (95% confidence interval, 99.4-100%). Sensitivity analysis demonstrated a range for sensitivity of 75.0-97.6% of the automated system under varying assumptions. Under all assumptions, the automated system demonstrated higher sensitivity than and comparable specificity to the manual screening method. An automated electronic system identified patients with acute lung injury with high sensitivity and specificity in diverse intensive care units of a large academic medical center. Further studies are needed to evaluate the effect of automated prompts that such a system can initiate on the use of lung protective ventilation in patients with acute lung injury.

Risk factors for hospital-associated venous thromboembolism in critically ill children following cardiothoracic surgery or therapeutic cardiac catheterisation.

PubMed

Atchison, Christie M; Amankwah, Ernest; Wilhelm, Jean; Arlikar, Shilpa; Branchford, Brian R; Stock, Arabela; Streiff, Michael; Takemoto, Clifford; Ayala, Irmel; Everett, Allen; Stapleton, Gary; Jacobs, Marshall L; Jacobs, Jeffrey P; Goldenberg, Neil A

2018-02-01

Paediatric hospital-associated venous thromboembolism is a leading quality and safety concern at children's hospitals. The aim of this study was to determine risk factors for hospital-associated venous thromboembolism in critically ill children following cardiothoracic surgery or therapeutic cardiac catheterisation. We conducted a retrospective, case-control study of children admitted to the cardiovascular intensive care unit at Johns Hopkins All Children's Hospital (St. Petersburg, Florida, United States of America) from 2006 to 2013. Hospital-associated venous thromboembolism cases were identified based on ICD-9 discharge codes and validated using radiological record review. We randomly selected two contemporaneous cardiovascular intensive care unit controls without hospital-associated venous thromboembolism for each hospital-associated venous thromboembolism case, and limited the study population to patients who had undergone cardiothoracic surgery or therapeutic cardiac catheterisation. Odds ratios and 95% confidence intervals for associations between putative risk factors and hospital-associated venous thromboembolism were determined using univariate and multivariate logistic regression. Among 2718 admissions to the cardiovascular intensive care unit during the study period, 65 met the criteria for hospital-associated venous thromboembolism (occurrence rate, 2%). Restriction to cases and controls having undergone the procedures of interest yielded a final study population of 57 hospital-associated venous thromboembolism cases and 76 controls. In a multiple logistic regression model, major infection (odds ratio=5.77, 95% confidence interval=1.06-31.4), age ⩽1 year (odds ratio=6.75, 95% confidence interval=1.13-160), and central venous catheterisation (odds ratio=7.36, 95% confidence interval=1.13-47.8) were found to be statistically significant independent risk factors for hospital-associated venous thromboembolism in these children. Patients with all three factors had a markedly increased post-test probability of having hospital-associated venous thromboembolism. Major infection, infancy, and central venous catheterisation are independent risk factors for hospital-associated venous thromboembolism in critically ill children following cardiothoracic surgery or cardiac catheter-based intervention, which, in combination, define a high-risk group for hospital-associated venous thromboembolism.

Prevalence of Barriers and Facilitators to Enhancing Conservative Kidney Management for Older Adults in the Primary Care Setting.

PubMed

Tam-Tham, Helen; King-Shier, Kathryn M; Thomas, Chandra M; Quinn, Robert R; Fruetel, Karen; Davison, Sara N; Hemmelgarn, Brenda R

2016-11-07

Conservative management of adults with stage 5 CKD (eGFR<15 ml/min per 1.73 m 2 ) is increasingly being provided in the primary care setting. We aimed to examine perceived barriers and facilitators for conservative management of older adults by primary care physicians. In 2015, we conducted a cross-sectional, population-based survey of all primary care physicians in Alberta, Canada. Eligible participants had experience caring for adults ages ≥75 years old with stage 5 CKD not planning on initiating dialysis. Questionnaire items were on the basis of a qualitative descriptive study informed by the Behavior Change Wheel and tested for face and content validity. Physicians were contacted via postal mail and/or fax on the basis of a modified Dillman method. Four hundred nine eligible primary care physicians completed the questionnaire (9.6% response rate). The majority of respondents were men (61.6%), were ages 40-60 years old (62.6%), and practiced in a large/medium population center (68.0%). The most common barrier to providing conservative care in the primary care setting was the inability to access support to maintain patients in the home setting (39.1% of respondents; 95% confidence interval, 34.6% to 43.6%). The second most common barrier was working with nonphysician providers with limited kidney-specific clinical expertise (32.3%; 95% confidence interval, 28.0% to 36.7%). Primary care physicians indicated that the two most common strategies that would enhance their ability to provide conservative management would be the ability to use the telephone to contact a nephrologist or clinical staff from the conservative care clinic (86.9%; 95% confidence interval, 83.7% to 90.0% and 85.6%; 95% confidence interval, 82.4% to 88.9%, respectively). We identified important areas to inform clinical programs to reduce barriers and enhance facilitators to improve primary care physicians' provision of conservative kidney care. In particular, primary care physicians require additional resources for maintaining patients in their home and telephone access to nephrologists and conservative care specialists. Copyright © 2016 by the American Society of Nephrology.

Prevalence of Barriers and Facilitators to Enhancing Conservative Kidney Management for Older Adults in the Primary Care Setting

PubMed Central

Tam-Tham, Helen; King-Shier, Kathryn M.; Thomas, Chandra M.; Quinn, Robert R.; Fruetel, Karen; Davison, Sara N.

2016-01-01

Background and objectives Conservative management of adults with stage 5 CKD (eGFR<15 ml/min per 1.73 m2) is increasingly being provided in the primary care setting. We aimed to examine perceived barriers and facilitators for conservative management of older adults by primary care physicians. Design, setting, participants, & measurements In 2015, we conducted a cross–sectional, population–based survey of all primary care physicians in Alberta, Canada. Eligible participants had experience caring for adults ages ≥75 years old with stage 5 CKD not planning on initiating dialysis. Questionnaire items were on the basis of a qualitative descriptive study informed by the Behavior Change Wheel and tested for face and content validity. Physicians were contacted via postal mail and/or fax on the basis of a modified Dillman method. Results Four hundred nine eligible primary care physicians completed the questionnaire (9.6% response rate). The majority of respondents were men (61.6%), were ages 40–60 years old (62.6%), and practiced in a large/medium population center (68.0%). The most common barrier to providing conservative care in the primary care setting was the inability to access support to maintain patients in the home setting (39.1% of respondents; 95% confidence interval, 34.6% to 43.6%). The second most common barrier was working with nonphysician providers with limited kidney–specific clinical expertise (32.3%; 95% confidence interval, 28.0% to 36.7%). Primary care physicians indicated that the two most common strategies that would enhance their ability to provide conservative management would be the ability to use the telephone to contact a nephrologist or clinical staff from the conservative care clinic (86.9%; 95% confidence interval, 83.7% to 90.0% and 85.6%; 95% confidence interval, 82.4% to 88.9%, respectively). Conclusions We identified important areas to inform clinical programs to reduce barriers and enhance facilitators to improve primary care physicians’ provision of conservative kidney care. In particular, primary care physicians require additional resources for maintaining patients in their home and telephone access to nephrologists and conservative care specialists. PMID:27551007

Shared and Distinct Rupture Discriminants of Small and Large Intracranial Aneurysms.

PubMed

Varble, Nicole; Tutino, Vincent M; Yu, Jihnhee; Sonig, Ashish; Siddiqui, Adnan H; Davies, Jason M; Meng, Hui

2018-04-01

Many ruptured intracranial aneurysms (IAs) are small. Clinical presentations suggest that small and large IAs could have different phenotypes. It is unknown if small and large IAs have different characteristics that discriminate rupture. We analyzed morphological, hemodynamic, and clinical parameters of 413 retrospectively collected IAs (training cohort; 102 ruptured IAs). Hierarchal cluster analysis was performed to determine a size cutoff to dichotomize the IA population into small and large IAs. We applied multivariate logistic regression to build rupture discrimination models for small IAs, large IAs, and an aggregation of all IAs. We validated the ability of these 3 models to predict rupture status in a second, independently collected cohort of 129 IAs (testing cohort; 14 ruptured IAs). Hierarchal cluster analysis in the training cohort confirmed that small and large IAs are best separated at 5 mm based on morphological and hemodynamic features (area under the curve=0.81). For small IAs (<5 mm), the resulting rupture discrimination model included undulation index, oscillatory shear index, previous subarachnoid hemorrhage, and absence of multiple IAs (area under the curve=0.84; 95% confidence interval, 0.78-0.88), whereas for large IAs (≥5 mm), the model included undulation index, low wall shear stress, previous subarachnoid hemorrhage, and IA location (area under the curve=0.87; 95% confidence interval, 0.82-0.93). The model for the aggregated training cohort retained all the parameters in the size-dichotomized models. Results in the testing cohort showed that the size-dichotomized rupture discrimination model had higher sensitivity (64% versus 29%) and accuracy (77% versus 74%), marginally higher area under the curve (0.75; 95% confidence interval, 0.61-0.88 versus 0.67; 95% confidence interval, 0.52-0.82), and similar specificity (78% versus 80%) compared with the aggregate-based model. Small (<5 mm) and large (≥5 mm) IAs have different hemodynamic and clinical, but not morphological, rupture discriminants. Size-dichotomized rupture discrimination models performed better than the aggregate model. © 2018 American Heart Association, Inc.

Circulating Biomarkers of Dairy Fat and Risk of Incident Diabetes Mellitus Among Men and Women in the United States in Two Large Prospective Cohorts.

PubMed

Yakoob, Mohammad Y; Shi, Peilin; Willett, Walter C; Rexrode, Kathryn M; Campos, Hannia; Orav, E John; Hu, Frank B; Mozaffarian, Dariush

2016-04-26

In prospective studies, the relationship of self-reported consumption of dairy foods with risk of diabetes mellitus is inconsistent. Few studies have assessed dairy fat, using circulating biomarkers, and incident diabetes mellitus. We tested the hypothesis that circulating fatty acid biomarkers of dairy fat, 15:0, 17:0, and t-16:1n-7, are associated with lower incident diabetes mellitus. Among 3333 adults aged 30 to 75 years and free of prevalent diabetes mellitus at baseline, total plasma and erythrocyte fatty acids were measured in blood collected in 1989 to 1990 (Nurses' Health Study) and 1993 to 1994 (Health Professionals Follow-Up Study). Incident diabetes mellitus through 2010 was confirmed by a validated supplementary questionnaire based on symptoms, diagnostic tests, and medications. Risk was assessed by using Cox proportional hazards, with cohort findings combined by meta-analysis. During mean±standard deviation follow-up of 15.2±5.6 years, 277 new cases of diabetes mellitus were diagnosed. In pooled multivariate analyses adjusting for demographics, metabolic risk factors, lifestyle, diet, and other circulating fatty acids, individuals with higher plasma 15:0 had a 44% lower risk of diabetes mellitus (quartiles 4 versus 1, hazard ratio, 0.56; 95% confidence interval, 0.37-0.86; P-trend=0.01); higher plasma 17:0, 43% lower risk (hazard ratio, 0.57; 95% confidence interval, 0.39-0.83; P-trend=0.01); and higher t-16:1n-7, 52% lower risk (hazard ratio, 0.48; 95% confidence interval, 0.33-0.70; P-trend <0.001). Findings were similar for erythrocyte 15:0, 17:0, and t-16:1n-7, although with broader confidence intervals that only achieved statistical significance for 17:0. In 2 prospective cohorts, higher plasma dairy fatty acid concentrations were associated with lower incident diabetes mellitus. Results were similar for erythrocyte 17:0. Our findings highlight the need to better understand the potential health effects of dairy fat, and the dietary and metabolic determinants of these fatty acids. © 2016 American Heart Association, Inc.

A comparison of activity classification in younger and older cohorts using a smartphone.

PubMed

Del Rosario, Michael B; Wang, Kejia; Wang, Jingjing; Liu, Ying; Brodie, Matthew; Delbaere, Kim; Lovell, Nigel H; Lord, Stephen R; Redmond, Stephen J

2014-11-01

Automatic recognition of human activity is useful as a means of estimating energy expenditure and has potential for use in fall detection and prediction. The emergence of the smartphone as a ubiquitous device presents an opportunity to utilize its embedded sensors, computational power and data connectivity as a platform for continuous health monitoring. In the study described herein, 37 older people (83.9  ±  3.4 years) performed a series of activities of daily living (ADLs) while a smartphone (containing a triaxial accelerometer, triaxial gyroscope and barometric pressure sensor) was placed in the front pocket of their trousers. These results are compared to a similar trial conducted previously in which 20 young people (21.9  ±  1.65 years) were asked to perform the same ADLs using the same smartphone (again in the front pocket of their trousers).In each trial, the participants were asked to perform several activities (standing, sitting, lying, walking on level ground, up and down staircases, and riding an elevator up and down) in a free-living environment. During each acquisition session, the internal sensor signals were recorded and subsequently used to develop activity classifiers based on a decision tree algorithm that classified ADL in epochs of ~1.25 s. When training and testing with the younger cohort, using a leave-one-out cross validation procedure, a total classification sensitivity of 80.9% ± 9.57% ([Formula: see text] = 0.75  ±  0.12) was obtained. Retraining and testing on the older cohort, again using cross validation, gives a comparable total class sensitivity of 82.0% ± 8.88% ([Formula: see text] =0.74  ±  0.12).When trained with the younger group and tested on the older group, a total class sensitivity of 69.2% ± 24.8% (95% confidence interval [69.6%, 70.6%]) and [Formula: see text] = 0.60  ±  0.27 (95% confidence interval [0.58, 0.59]) was obtained. When trained on the older group and tested on the younger group, a total class sensitivity of 80.5% ± 6.80% (95% confidence interval [79.0%, 80.6%]) and [Formula: see text] = 0.74  ±  0.08 (95% confidence interval [0.73, 0.75]) was obtained.An instance of the decision tree classifier developed was implemented on the smartphone as a software application. It was capable of performing real-time activity classification for a period of 17 h on a single battery charge, illustrating that smartphone technology provides a viable platform on which to perform long-term activity monitoring.

The prognostic value of the QT interval and QT interval dispersion in all-cause and cardiac mortality and morbidity in a population of Danish citizens.

PubMed

Elming, H; Holm, E; Jun, L; Torp-Pedersen, C; Køber, L; Kircshoff, M; Malik, M; Camm, J

1998-09-01

To evaluate the prognostic value of the QT interval and QT interval dispersion in total and in cardiovascular mortality, as well as in cardiac morbidity, in a general population. The QT interval was measured in all leads from a standard 12-lead ECG in a random sample of 1658 women and 1797 men aged 30-60 years. QT interval dispersion was calculated from the maximal difference between QT intervals in any two leads. All cause mortality over 13 years, and cardiovascular mortality as well as cardiac morbidity over 11 years, were the main outcome parameters. Subjects with a prolonged QT interval (430 ms or more) or prolonged QT interval dispersion (80 ms or more) were at higher risk of cardiovascular death and cardiac morbidity than subjects whose QT interval was less than 360 ms, or whose QT interval dispersion was less than 30 ms. Cardiovascular death relative risk ratios, adjusted for age, gender, myocardial infarct, angina pectoris, diabetes mellitus, arterial hypertension, smoking habits, serum cholesterol level, and heart rate were 2.9 for the QT interval (95% confidence interval 1.1-7.8) and 4.4 for QT interval dispersion (95% confidence interval 1.0-19-1). Fatal and non-fatal cardiac morbidity relative risk ratios were similar, at 2.7 (95% confidence interval 1.4-5.5) for the QT interval and 2.2 (95% confidence interval 1.1-4.0) for QT interval dispersion. Prolongation of the QT interval and QT interval dispersion independently affected the prognosis of cardiovascular mortality and cardiac fatal and non-fatal morbidity in a general population over 11 years.

Psychosocial determinants of nurses' intention to practise euthanasia in palliative care.

PubMed

Lavoie, Mireille; Godin, Gaston; Vézina-Im, Lydi-Anne; Blondeau, Danielle; Martineau, Isabelle; Roy, Louis

2016-02-01

Most studies on euthanasia fail to explain the intentions of health professionals when faced with performing euthanasia and are atheoretical. The purpose of this study was to identify the psychosocial determinants of nurses' intention to practise euthanasia in palliative care if it were legalised. A cross-sectional study using a validated anonymous questionnaire based on an extended version of the Theory of Planned Behaviour. A random sample of 445 nurses from the province of Quebec, Canada, was selected for participation in the study. The study was reviewed and approved by the Ethics Committee of the Centre hospitalier universitaire de Québec. The response rate was 44.2% and the mean score for intention was 4.61 ± 1.90 (range: 1-7). The determinants of intention were the subjective (odds ratio = 3.08; 95% confidence interval: 1.50-6.35) and moral (odds ratio = 2.95; 95% confidence interval: 1.58-5.49) norms. Specific beliefs which could discriminate nurses according to their level of intention were identified. Overall, nurses have a slightly positive intention to practise euthanasia. Their family approval seems particularly important and also the approval of their medical colleagues. Nurses' moral norm was related to beneficence, an ethical principle. To our knowledge, this is the first study to identify nurses' motivations to practise euthanasia in palliative care using a validated psychosocial theory. It also has the distinction of identifying the ethical principles underlying nurses' moral norm and intention. © The Author(s) 2014.

Intakes of magnesium, potassium, and calcium and the risk of stroke among men.

PubMed

Adebamowo, Sally N; Spiegelman, Donna; Flint, Alan J; Willett, Walter C; Rexrode, Kathryn M

2015-10-01

Intakes of magnesium, potassium, and calcium have been inversely associated with the incidence of hypertension, a known risk factor for stroke. However, only a few studies have examined intakes of these cations in relation to risk of stroke. The aim of this study was to investigate whether high intake of magnesium, potassium, and calcium is associated with reduced stroke risk among men. We prospectively examined the associations between intakes of magnesium, potassium, and calcium from diet and supplements, and the risk of incident stroke among 42 669 men in the Health Professionals Follow-up Study, aged 40 to 75 years and free of diagnosed cardiovascular disease and cancer at baseline in 1986. We calculated the hazard ratio of total, ischemic, and haemorrhagic strokes by quintiles of each cation intake, and of a combined dietary score of all three cations, using multivariate Cox proportional hazard models. During 24 years of follow-up, 1547 total stroke events were documented. In multivariate analyses, the relative risks and 95% confidence intervals of total stroke for men in the highest vs. lowest quintile were 0·87 (95% confidence interval, 0·74-1·02; P, trend = 0·04) for dietary magnesium, 0·89 (95% confidence interval, 0·76-1·05; P, trend = 0·10) for dietary potassium, and 0·89 (95% confidence interval, 0·75-1·04; P, trend = 0·25) for dietary calcium intake. The relative risk of total stroke for men in the highest vs. lowest quintile was 0·74 (95% confidence interval, 0·59-0·93; P, trend = 0·003) for supplemental magnesium, 0·66 (95% confidence interval, 0·50-0·86; P, trend = 0·002) for supplemental potassium, and 1·01 (95% confidence interval, 0·84-1·20; P, trend = 0·83) for supplemental calcium intake. For total intake (dietary and supplemental), the relative risk of total stroke for men in the highest vs. lowest quintile was 0·83 (95% confidence interval, 0·70-0·99; P, trend = 0·04) for magnesium, 0·88 (95% confidence interval, 0·75-4; P, trend = 6) for potassium, and 3 (95% confidence interval, 79-09; P, trend = 84) for calcium. Men in the highest quintile for a combined dietary score of all three cations had a multivariate relative risk of 0·79 (95% confidence interval, 0·67-0·92; P, trend = 0·008) for total stroke, compared with those in the lowest. A diet rich in magnesium, potassium, and calcium may contribute to reduced risk of stroke among men. Because of significant collinearity, the independent contribution of each cation is difficult to define. © 2015 World Stroke Organization.

Neuraxial analgesia to increase the success rate of external cephalic version: a systematic review and meta-analysis of randomized controlled trials.

PubMed

Magro-Malosso, Elena Rita; Saccone, Gabriele; Di Tommaso, Mariarosaria; Mele, Michele; Berghella, Vincenzo

2016-09-01

External cephalic version is a medical procedure in which the fetus is externally manipulated to assume the cephalic presentation. The use of neuraxial analgesia for facilitating the version has been evaluated in several randomized clinical trials, but its potential effects are still controversial. The objective of the study was to evaluate the effectiveness of neuraxial analgesia as an intervention to increase the success rate of external cephalic version. Searches were performed in electronic databases with the use of a combination of text words related to external cephalic version and neuraxial analgesia from the inception of each database to January 2016. We included all randomized clinical trials of women, with a gestational age ≥36 weeks and breech or transverse fetal presentation, undergoing external cephalic version who were randomized to neuraxial analgesia, including spinal, epidural, or combined spinal-epidural techniques (ie, intervention group) or to a control group (either intravenous analgesia or no treatment). The primary outcome was the successful external cephalic version. The summary measures were reported as relative risk or as mean differences with a 95% confidence interval. Nine randomized clinical trials (934 women) were included in this review. Women who received neuraxial analgesia had a significantly higher incidence of successful external cephalic version (58.4% vs 43.1%; relative risk, 1.44, 95% confidence interval, 1.27-1.64), cephalic presentation in labor (55.1% vs 40.2%; relative risk, 1.37, 95% confidence interval, 1.08-1.73), and vaginal delivery (54.0% vs 44.6%; relative risk, 1.21, 95% confidence interval, 1.04-1.41) compared with those who did not. Women who were randomized to the intervention group also had a significantly lower incidence of cesarean delivery (46.0% vs 55.3%; relative risk, 0.83, 95% confidence interval, 0.71-0.97), maternal discomfort (1.2% vs 9.3%; relative risk, 0.12, 95% confidence interval, 0.02-0.99), and lower pain, assessed by the visual analog scale pain score (mean difference, -4.52 points, 95% confidence interval, -5.35 to 3.69) compared with the control group. The incidences of emergency cesarean delivery (1.6% vs 2.5%; relative risk, 0.63, 95% confidence interval, 0.24-1.70), transient bradycardia (11.8% vs 8.3%; relative risk, 1.42, 95% confidence interval, 0.72-2.80), nonreassuring fetal testing, excluding transient bradycardia, after external cephalic version (6.9% vs 7.4%; relative risk, 0.93, 95% confidence interval, 0.53-1.64), and abruption placentae (0.4% vs 0.4%; relative risk, 1.01, 95% confidence interval, 0.06-16.1) were similar. Administration of neuraxial analgesia significantly increases the success rate of external cephalic version among women with malpresentation at term or late preterm, which then significantly increases the incidence of vaginal delivery. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Add-On Antihypertensive Medications to Angiotensin-Aldosterone System Blockers in Diabetes: A Comparative Effectiveness Study.

PubMed

Schroeder, Emily B; Chonchol, Michel; Shetterly, Susan M; Powers, J David; Adams, John L; Schmittdiel, Julie A; Nichols, Gregory A; O'Connor, Patrick J; Steiner, John F

2018-05-07

In individuals with diabetes, the comparative effectiveness of add-on antihypertensive medications added to an angiotensin-converting enzyme inhibitor or angiotensin II receptor blocker on the risk of significant kidney events is unknown. We used an observational, multicenter cohort of 21,897 individuals with diabetes to compare individuals who added β -blockers, dihydropyridine calcium channel blockers, loop diuretics, or thiazide diuretics to angiotensin-converting enzyme inhibitors or angiotensin II receptor blockers. We examined the hazard of significant kidney events, cardiovascular events, and death using Cox proportional hazard models with propensity score weighting. The composite significant kidney event end point was defined as the first occurrence of a ≥30% decline in eGFR to an eGFR<60 ml/min per 1.73 m 2 , initiation of dialysis, or kidney transplant. The composite cardiovascular event end point was defined as the first occurrence of hospitalization for acute myocardial infarction, acute coronary syndrome, stroke, or congestive heart failure; coronary artery bypass grafting; or percutaneous coronary intervention, and it was only examined in those free of cardiovascular disease at baseline. Over a maximum of 5 years, there were 4707 significant kidney events, 1498 deaths, and 818 cardiovascular events. Compared with thiazide diuretics, hazard ratios for significant kidney events for β -blockers, calcium channel blockers, and loop diuretics were 0.81 (95% confidence interval, 0.74 to 0.89), 0.67 (95% confidence interval, 0.58 to 0.78), and 1.19 (95% confidence interval, 1.00 to 1.41), respectively. Compared with thiazide diuretics, hazard ratios of mortality for β -blockers, calcium channel blockers, and loop diuretics were 1.19 (95% confidence interval, 0.97 to 1.44), 0.73 (95% confidence interval, 0.52 to 1.03), and 1.67 (95% confidence interval, 1.31 to 2.13), respectively. Compared with thiazide diuretics, hazard ratios of cardiovascular events for β -blockers, calcium channel blockers, and loop diuretics compared with thiazide diuretics were 1.65 (95% confidence interval, 1.39 to 1.96), 1.05 (95% confidence interval, 0.80 to 1.39), and 1.55 (95% confidence interval, 1.05 to 2.27), respectively. Compared with thiazide diuretics, calcium channel blockers were associated with a lower risk of significant kidney events and a similar risk of cardiovascular events. Copyright © 2018 by the American Society of Nephrology.

Maternal steroid therapy for fetuses with second-degree immune-mediated congenital atrioventricular block: a systematic review and meta-analysis.

PubMed

Ciardulli, Andrea; D'Antonio, Francesco; Magro-Malosso, Elena R; Manzoli, Lamberto; Anisman, Paul; Saccone, Gabriele; Berghella, Vincenzo

2018-03-07

To explore the effect of maternal fluorinated steroid therapy on fetuses affected by second-degree immune-mediated congenital atrioventricular block. Studies reporting the outcome of fetuses with second-degree immune-mediated congenital atrioventricular block diagnosed on prenatal ultrasound and treated with fluorinated steroids compared with those not treated were included. The primary outcome was the overall progression of congenital atrioventricular block to either continuous or intermittent third-degree congenital atrioventricular block at birth. Meta-analyses of proportions using random effect model and meta-analyses using individual data random-effect logistic regression were used. Five studies (71 fetuses) were included. The progression rate to congenital atrioventricular block at birth in fetuses treated with steroids was 52% (95% confidence interval 23-79) and in fetuses not receiving steroid therapy 73% (95% confidence interval 39-94). The overall rate of regression to either first-degree, intermittent first-/second-degree or sinus rhythm in fetuses treated with steroids was 25% (95% confidence interval 12-41) compared with 23% (95% confidence interval 8-44) in those not treated. Stable (constant) second-degree congenital atrioventricular block at birth was present in 11% (95% confidence interval 2-27) of cases in the treated group and in none of the newborns in the untreated group, whereas complete regression to sinus rhythm occurred in 21% (95% confidence interval 6-42) of fetuses receiving steroids vs. 9% (95% confidence interval 0-41) of those untreated. There is still limited evidence as to the benefit of administered fluorinated steroids in terms of affecting outcome of fetuses with second-degree immune-mediated congenital atrioventricular block. © 2018 Nordic Federation of Societies of Obstetrics and Gynecology.

Active management of the third stage of labor with and without controlled cord traction: a systematic review and meta-analysis of randomized controlled trials.

PubMed

Du, Yongming; Ye, Man; Zheng, Feiyun

2014-07-01

To determine the specific effect of controlled cord traction in the third stage of labor in the prevention of postpartum hemorrhage. We searched PubMed, Scopus and Web of Science (inception to 30 October 2013). Randomized controlled trials comparing controlled cord traction with hands-off management in the third stage of labor were included. Five randomized controlled trials involving a total of 30 532 participants were eligible. No significant difference was found between controlled cord traction and hands-off management groups with respect to the incidence of severe postpartum hemorrhage (relative risk 0.91, 95% confidence interval 0.77-1.08), need for blood transfusion (relative risk 0.96, 95% confidence interval 0.69-1.33) or therapeutic uterotonics (relative risk 0.94, 95% confidence interval 0.88-1.01). However, controlled cord traction reduced the incidence of postpartum hemorrhage in general (relative risk 0.93, 95% confidence interval 0.87-0.99; number-needed-to-treat 111, 95% confidence interval 61-666), as well manual removal of the placenta (relative risk 0.70, 95% confidence interval 0.58-0.84) and duration of the third stage of labor (mean difference -3.20, 95% confidence interval -3.21 to -3.19). Controlled cord traction appears to reduce the risk of any postpartum hemorrhage in a general sense, as well as manual removal of the placenta and the duration of the third stage of labor. However, the reduction in the occurrence of severe postpartum hemorrhage, need for additional uterotonics and blood transfusion is not statistically significant. © 2014 Nordic Federation of Societies of Obstetrics and Gynecology.

Loss of DPC4/SMAD4 expression in primary gastrointestinal neuroendocrine tumors is associated with cancer-related death after resection.

PubMed

Roland, Christina L; Starker, Lee F; Kang, Y; Chatterjee, Deyali; Estrella, Jeannelyn; Rashid, Asif; Katz, Matthew H; Aloia, Thomas A; Lee, Jeffrey E; Dasari, Arvind; Yao, James C; Fleming, Jason B

2017-03-01

Gastrointestinal neuroendocrine tumors have frequent loss of DPC4/SMAD4 expression, a known tumor suppressor. The impact of SMAD4 loss on gastrointestinal neuroendocrine tumors aggressiveness or cancer-related patient outcomes is not defined. We examined the expression of SMAD4 in resected gastrointestinal neuroendocrine tumors and its impact on oncologic outcomes. Patients who underwent complete curative operative resection of gastrointestinal neuroendocrine tumors were identified retrospectively (n = 38). Immunohistochemical staining for SMAD4 expression was scored by a blinded pathologist and correlated with clinicopathologic features and oncologic outcomes. Twenty-nine percent of the gastrointestinal neuroendocrine tumors were SMAD4-negative and 71% SMAD4-positive. Median overall survival was 155 months (95% confidence interval, 102-208 months). Loss of SMAD4 was associated with both decreased median disease-free survival (28 months; 95% confidence interval, 16-40) months compared with 223 months (95% confidence interval, 3-443 months) for SMAD4-positive patients (P = .03) and decreased median disease-specific survival (SMAD4: 137 [95% confidence interval, 81-194] months versus SMAD4-positive: 204 [95% confidence interval, 143-264] months; P = .04). This translated into a decrease in median overall survival (SMAD4-negative: 125 (95% confidence interval, 51-214) months versus SMAD4-positive: 185 (95% confidence interval, 138-232) months; P = .02). Consistent with the known biology of the DPC4/SMAD4 gene, an absence of its protein expression in primary gastrointestinal neuroendocrine tumors was negatively associated with outcomes after curative operative resection. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Calculation of the confidence intervals for transformation parameters in the registration of medical images

PubMed Central

Bansal, Ravi; Staib, Lawrence H.; Laine, Andrew F.; Xu, Dongrong; Liu, Jun; Posecion, Lainie F.; Peterson, Bradley S.

2010-01-01

Images from different individuals typically cannot be registered precisely because anatomical features within the images differ across the people imaged and because the current methods for image registration have inherent technological limitations that interfere with perfect registration. Quantifying the inevitable error in image registration is therefore of crucial importance in assessing the effects that image misregistration may have on subsequent analyses in an imaging study. We have developed a mathematical framework for quantifying errors in registration by computing the confidence intervals of the estimated parameters (3 translations, 3 rotations, and 1 global scale) for the similarity transformation. The presence of noise in images and the variability in anatomy across individuals ensures that estimated registration parameters are always random variables. We assume a functional relation among intensities across voxels in the images, and we use the theory of nonlinear, least-squares estimation to show that the parameters are multivariate Gaussian distributed. We then use the covariance matrix of this distribution to compute the confidence intervals of the transformation parameters. These confidence intervals provide a quantitative assessment of the registration error across the images. Because transformation parameters are nonlinearly related to the coordinates of landmark points in the brain, we subsequently show that the coordinates of those landmark points are also multivariate Gaussian distributed. Using these distributions, we then compute the confidence intervals of the coordinates for landmark points in the image. Each of these confidence intervals in turn provides a quantitative assessment of the registration error at a particular landmark point. Because our method is computationally intensive, however, its current implementation is limited to assessing the error of the parameters in the similarity transformation across images. We assessed the performance of our method in computing the error in estimated similarity parameters by applying that method to real world dataset. Our results showed that the size of the confidence intervals computed using our method decreased – i.e. our confidence in the registration of images from different individuals increased – for increasing amounts of blur in the images. Moreover, the size of the confidence intervals increased for increasing amounts of noise, misregistration, and differing anatomy. Thus, our method precisely quantified confidence in the registration of images that contain varying amounts of misregistration and varying anatomy across individuals. PMID:19138877

Reliability of the identification of the systemic inflammatory response syndrome in critically ill infants and children.

PubMed

Juskewitch, Justin E; Prasad, Swati; Salas, Carlos F Santillan; Huskins, W Charles

2012-01-01

To assess interobserver reliability of the identification of episodes of the systemic inflammatory response syndrome in critically ill hospitalized infants and children. Retrospective, cross-sectional study of the application of the 2005 consensus definition of systemic inflammatory response syndrome in infants and children by two independent, trained reviewers using information in the electronic medical record. Eighteen-bed pediatric multidisciplinary medical/surgical pediatric intensive care unit. A randomly selected sample of children admitted consecutively to the pediatric intensive care unit between May 1 and September 30, 2009. None. Sixty infants and children were selected from a total of 343 admitted patients. Their median age was 3.9 yrs (interquartile range, 1.5-12.7), 57% were female, and 68% were Caucasian. Nineteen (32%) children were identified by both reviewers as having an episode of systemic inflammatory response syndrome (88% agreement, 95% confidence interval 78-94; κ = 0.75, 95% confidence interval 0.59-0.92). Among these 19 children, agreement between the reviewers for individual systemic inflammatory response syndrome criteria was: temperature (84%, 95% confidence interval 60-97); white blood cell count (89%, 95% confidence interval 67-99); respiratory rate (84%, 95% confidence interval 60-97); and heart rate (68%, 95% confidence interval 33-87). Episodes of systemic inflammatory response syndrome in critically ill infants and children can be identified reproducibly using the consensus definition.

What was different about exposures reported by male Australian Gulf War veterans for the 1991 Persian Gulf War, compared with exposures reported for other deployments?

PubMed

Glass, Deborah C; Sim, Malcolm R; Kelsall, Helen L; Ikin, Jill F; McKenzie, Dean; Forbes, Andrew; Ittak, Peter

2006-07-01

This study identified chemical and environmental exposures specifically associated with the 1991 Persian Gulf War. Exposures were self-reported in a postal questionnaire, in the period of 2000-2002, by 1,424 Australian male Persian Gulf War veterans in relation to their 1991 Persian Gulf War deployment and by 625 Persian Gulf War veterans and 514 members of a military comparison group in relation to other active deployments. Six of 28 investigated exposures were experienced more frequently during the Persian Gulf War than during other deployments; these were exposure to smoke (odds ratio [OR], 4.4; 95% confidence interval, 3.0-6.6), exposure to dust (OR, 3.7; 95% confidence interval, 2.6-5.3), exposure to chemical warfare agents (OR, 3.9; 95% confidence interval, 2.1-7.9), use of respiratory protective equipment (OR, 13.6; 95% confidence interval, 7.6-26.8), use of nuclear, chemical, and biological protective suits (OR, 8.9; 95% confidence interval, 5.4-15.4), and entering/inspecting enemy equipment (OR, 3.1; 95% confidence interval, 2.1-4.8). Other chemical and environmental exposures were not specific to the Persian Gulf War deployment but were also reported in relation to other deployments. The number of exposures reported was related to service type and number of deployments but not to age or rank.

Statin therapy in lower limb peripheral arterial disease: Systematic review and meta-analysis.

PubMed

Antoniou, George A; Fisher, Robert K; Georgiadis, George S; Antoniou, Stavros A; Torella, Francesco

2014-11-01

To investigate and analyse the existing evidence supporting statin therapy in patients with lower limb atherosclerotic arterial disease. A systematic search of electronic information sources was undertaken to identify studies comparing cardiovascular outcomes in patients with lower limb peripheral arterial disease treated with a statin and those not receiving a statin. Estimates were combined applying fixed- or random-effects models. Twelve observational cohort studies and two randomised trials reporting 19,368 patients were selected. Statin therapy was associated with reduced all-cause mortality (odds ratio 0.60, 95% confidence interval 0.46-0.78) and incidence of stroke (odds ratio 0.77, 95% confidence interval 0.67-0.89). A trend towards improved cardiovascular mortality (odds ratio 0.62, 95% confidence interval 0.35-1.11), myocardial infarction (odds ratio 0.62, 95% confidence interval 0.38-1.01), and the composite of death/myocardial infarction/stroke (odds ratio 0.91, 95% confidence interval 0.81-1.03), was identified. Meta-analyses of studies performing adjustments showed decreased all-cause mortality in statin users (hazard ratio 0.77, 95% confidence interval 0.68-0.86). Evidence supporting statins' protective role in patients with lower limb peripheral arterial disease is insufficient. Statin therapy seems to be effective in reducing all-cause mortality and the incidence cerebrovascular events in patients diagnosed with peripheral arterial disease. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Method validation for chemical composition determination by electron microprobe with wavelength dispersive spectrometer

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Herrera-Basurto, R.; Mercader-Trejo, F.; Muñoz-Madrigal, N.; Juárez-García, J. M.; Rodriguez-López, A.; Manzano-Ramírez, A.

2016-07-01

The main goal of method validation is to demonstrate that the method is suitable for its intended purpose. One of the advantages of analytical method validation is translated into a level of confidence about the measurement results reported to satisfy a specific objective. Elemental composition determination by wavelength dispersive spectrometer (WDS) microanalysis has been used over extremely wide areas, mainly in the field of materials science, impurity determinations in geological, biological and food samples. However, little information is reported about the validation of the applied methods. Herein, results of the in-house method validation for elemental composition determination by WDS are shown. SRM 482, a binary alloy Cu-Au of different compositions, was used during the validation protocol following the recommendations for method validation proposed by Eurachem. This paper can be taken as a reference for the evaluation of the validation parameters more frequently requested to get the accreditation under the requirements of the ISO/IEC 17025 standard: selectivity, limit of detection, linear interval, sensitivity, precision, trueness and uncertainty. A model for uncertainty estimation was proposed including systematic and random errors. In addition, parameters evaluated during the validation process were also considered as part of the uncertainty model.

NADiA ProsVue prostate-specific antigen slope is an independent prognostic marker for identifying men at reduced risk of clinical recurrence of prostate cancer after radical prostatectomy.

PubMed

Moul, Judd W; Lilja, Hans; Semmes, O John; Lance, Raymond S; Vessella, Robert L; Fleisher, Martin; Mazzola, Clarisse; Sarno, Mark J; Stevens, Barbara; Klem, Robert E; McDermed, Jonathan E; Triebell, Melissa T; Adams, Thomas H

2012-12-01

To validate the hypothesis that men displaying serum prostate-specific antigen (PSA) slopes ≤ 2.0 pg/mL/mo after prostatectomy, measured using a new immuno-polymerase chain reaction diagnostic test (NADiA ProsVue), have a reduced risk of clinical recurrence as determined by positive biopsy, imaging findings, or death from prostate cancer. From 4 clinical sites, we selected a cohort of 304 men who had been followed up for 17.6 years after prostatectomy for clinical recurrence. We assessed the prognostic value of a PSA slope cutpoint of 2.0 pg/mL/mo against established risk factors to identify men at low risk of clinical recurrence using uni- and multivariate Cox proportional hazards regression and Kaplan-Meier analyses. The univariate hazard ratio of a PSA slope >2.0 pg/mL/mo was 18.3 (95% confidence interval 10.6-31.8) compared with a slope ≤ 2.0 pg/mL/mo (P <.0001). The median disease-free survival interval was 4.8 years vs >10 years in the 2 groups (P <.0001). The multivariate hazard ratio for PSA slope with the covariates of preprostatectomy PSA, pathologic stage, and Gleason score was 9.8 (95% confidence interval 5.4-17.8), an 89.8% risk reduction for men with PSA slopes ≤ 2.0 pg/mL/mo (P <.0001). The Gleason score (<7 vs ≥ 7) was the only other significant predictor (hazard ratio 5.4, 95% confidence interval 2.1-13.8, P = .0004). Clinical recurrence after radical prostatectomy is difficult to predict using established risk factors. We have demonstrated that a NADiA ProsVue PSA slope of ≤ 2.0 pg/mL/mo after prostatectomy is prognostic for a reduced risk of prostate cancer recurrence and adds predictive power to the established risk factors. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Characterization of renal biomarkers for use in clinical trials: biomarker evaluation in healthy volunteers

PubMed Central

Brott, David A; Adler, Scott H; Arani, Ramin; Lovick, Susan C; Pinches, Mark; Furlong, Stephen T

2014-01-01

Background Several preclinical urinary biomarkers have been qualified and accepted by the health authorities (US Food and Drug Administration, European Medicines Agency, and Pharmaceuticals and Medical Devices Agency) for detecting drug-induced kidney injury during preclinical toxicologic testing. Validated human assays for many of these biomarkers have become commercially available, and this study was designed to characterize some of the novel clinical renal biomarkers. The objective of this study was to evaluate clinical renal biomarkers in a typical Phase I healthy volunteer population to determine confidence intervals (pilot reference intervals), intersubject and intrasubject variability, effects of food intake, effect of sex, and vendor assay comparisons. Methods Spot urine samples from 20 male and 19 female healthy volunteers collected on multiple days were analyzed using single analyte and multiplex assays. The following analytes were measured: α-1-microglobulin, β-2-microglobulin, calbindin, clusterin, connective tissue growth factor, creatinine, cystatin C, glutathione S-transferase-α, kidney injury marker-1, microalbumin, N-acetyl-β-(D) glucosaminidase, neutrophil gelatinase-associated lipocalin, osteopontin, Tamm-Horsfall urinary glycoprotein, tissue inhibitor of metalloproteinase 1, trefoil factor 3, and vascular endothelial growth factor. Results Confidence intervals were determined from the single analyte and multiplex assays. Intersubject and intrasubject variability ranged from 38% to 299% and from 29% to 82% for biomarker concentration, and from 24% to 331% and from 10% to 67% for biomarker concentration normalized to creatinine, respectively. There was no major effect of food intake or sex. Single analyte and multiplex assays correlated with r2≥0.700 for five of six biomarkers when evaluating biomarker concentration, but for only two biomarkers when evaluating concentration normalized to creatinine. Conclusion Confidence intervals as well as intersubject and intrasubject variability were determined for novel clinical renal biomarkers/assays, which should be considered for evaluation in the next steps of the qualification process. PMID:24611000

Characterization of renal biomarkers for use in clinical trials: biomarker evaluation in healthy volunteers.

PubMed

Brott, David A; Adler, Scott H; Arani, Ramin; Lovick, Susan C; Pinches, Mark; Furlong, Stephen T

2014-01-01

Several preclinical urinary biomarkers have been qualified and accepted by the health authorities (US Food and Drug Administration, European Medicines Agency, and Pharmaceuticals and Medical Devices Agency) for detecting drug-induced kidney injury during preclinical toxicologic testing. Validated human assays for many of these biomarkers have become commercially available, and this study was designed to characterize some of the novel clinical renal biomarkers. The objective of this study was to evaluate clinical renal biomarkers in a typical Phase I healthy volunteer population to determine confidence intervals (pilot reference intervals), intersubject and intrasubject variability, effects of food intake, effect of sex, and vendor assay comparisons. Spot urine samples from 20 male and 19 female healthy volunteers collected on multiple days were analyzed using single analyte and multiplex assays. The following analytes were measured: α-1-microglobulin, β-2-microglobulin, calbindin, clusterin, connective tissue growth factor, creatinine, cystatin C, glutathione S-transferase-α, kidney injury marker-1, microalbumin, N-acetyl-β-(D) glucosaminidase, neutrophil gelatinase-associated lipocalin, osteopontin, Tamm-Horsfall urinary glycoprotein, tissue inhibitor of metalloproteinase 1, trefoil factor 3, and vascular endothelial growth factor. Confidence intervals were determined from the single analyte and multiplex assays. Intersubject and intrasubject variability ranged from 38% to 299% and from 29% to 82% for biomarker concentration, and from 24% to 331% and from 10% to 67% for biomarker concentration normalized to creatinine, respectively. There was no major effect of food intake or sex. Single analyte and multiplex assays correlated with r (2)≥0.700 for five of six biomarkers when evaluating biomarker concentration, but for only two biomarkers when evaluating concentration normalized to creatinine. Confidence intervals as well as intersubject and intrasubject variability were determined for novel clinical renal biomarkers/assays, which should be considered for evaluation in the next steps of the qualification process.

Reliability, validity, and minimal detectable change of the push-off test scores in assessing upper extremity weight-bearing ability.

PubMed

Mehta, Saurabh P; George, Hannah R; Goering, Christian A; Shafer, Danielle R; Koester, Alan; Novotny, Steven

2017-11-01

Clinical measurement study. The push-off test (POT) was recently conceived and found to be reliable and valid for assessing weight bearing through injured wrist or elbow. However, further research with larger sample can lend credence to the preliminary findings supporting the use of the POT. This study examined the interrater reliability, construct validity, and measurement error for the POT in patients with wrist conditions. Participants with musculoskeletal (MSK) wrist conditions were recruited. The performance on the POT, grip isometric strength of wrist extensors was assessed. The shortened version of the Disabilities of the Arm, Shoulder and Hand and numeric pain rating scale were completed. The intraclass correlation coefficient assessed interrater reliability of the POT. Pearson correlation coefficients (r) examined the concurrent relationships between the POT and other measures. The standard error of measurement and the minimal detectable change at 90% confidence interval were assessed as measurement error and index of true change for the POT. A total of 50 participants with different elbow or wrist conditions (age: 48.1 ± 16.6 years) were included in this study. The results of this study strongly supported the interrater reliability (intraclass correlation coefficient: 0.96 and 0.93 for the affected and unaffected sides, respectively) of the POT in patients with wrist MSK conditions. The POT showed convergent relationships with the grip strength on the injured side (r = 0.89) and the wrist extensor strength (r = 0.7). The POT showed smaller standard error of measurement (1.9 kg). The minimal detectable change at 90% confidence interval for the POT was 4.4 kg for the sample. This study provides additional evidence to support the reliability and validity of the POT. This is the first study that provides the values for the measurement error and true change on the POT scores in patients with wrist MSK conditions. Further research should examine the responsiveness and discriminant validity of the POT in patients with wrist conditions. Copyright © 2017 Hanley & Belfus. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

A comparison of statistical methods for evaluating matching performance of a biometric identification device: a preliminary report

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schuckers, Michael E.; Hawley, Anne; Livingstone, Katie; Mramba, Nona

2004-08-01

Confidence intervals are an important way to assess and estimate a parameter. In the case of biometric identification devices, several approaches to confidence intervals for an error rate have been proposed. Here we evaluate six of these methods. To complete this evaluation, we simulate data from a wide variety of parameter values. This data are simulated via a correlated binary distribution. We then determine how well these methods do at what they say they do: capturing the parameter inside the confidence interval. In addition, the average widths of the various confidence intervals are recorded for each set of parameters. The complete results of this simulation are presented graphically for easy comparison. We conclude by making a recommendation regarding which method performs best.

Estimated preejection period (PEP) based on the detection of the R-wave and dZ/dt-min peaks in ECG and ICG

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

van Lien, René; Schutte, Nienke M.; Meijer, Jan H.; de Geus, Eco J. C.

2013-04-01

The validity of estimating the PEP from a fixed value for the Q-wave onset to the R-wave peak (QR) interval and from the R-wave peak to the dZ/dt-min peak (ISTI) interval is evaluated. Ninety-one subjects participated in a laboratory experiment in which a variety of physical and mental stressors were presented and 31 further subjects participated in a sequence of structured ambulatory activities in which large variation in posture and physical activity was induced. PEP, QR interval, and ISTI were scored. Across the diverse laboratory and ambulatory conditions the QR interval could be approximated by a fixed interval of 40 ms but 95% confidence intervals were large (25 to 54 ms). Multilevel analysis showed that 79% to 81% of the within and between-subject variation in the RB interval could be predicted by the ISTI. However, the optimal intercept and slope values varied significantly across subjects and study setting. Bland-Altman plots revealed a large discrepancy between the estimated PEP and the actual PEP based on the Q-wave onset and B-point. It is concluded that the estimated PEP can be a useful tool but cannot replace the actual PEP to index cardiac sympathetic control.

CREATION OF A MODEL TO PREDICT SURVIVAL IN PATIENTS WITH REFRACTORY COELIAC DISEASE USING A MULTINATIONAL REGISTRY

PubMed Central

Rubio-Tapia, Alberto; Malamut, Georgia; Verbeek, Wieke H.M.; van Wanrooij, Roy L.J.; Leffler, Daniel A.; Niveloni, Sonia I.; Arguelles-Grande, Carolina; Lahr, Brian D.; Zinsmeister, Alan R.; Murray, Joseph A.; Kelly, Ciaran P.; Bai, Julio C.; Green, Peter H.; Daum, Severin; Mulder, Chris J.J.; Cellier, Christophe

2016-01-01

Background Refractory coeliac disease is a severe complication of coeliac disease with heterogeneous outcome. Aim To create a prognostic model to estimate survival of patients with refractory coeliac disease. Methods We evaluated predictors of 5-year mortality using Cox proportional hazards regression on subjects from a multinational registry. Bootstrap re-sampling was used to internally validate the individual factors and overall model performance. The mean of the estimated regression coefficients from 400 bootstrap models was used to derive a risk score for 5-year mortality. Results The multinational cohort was composed of 232 patients diagnosed with refractory coeliac disease across 7 centers (range of 11–63 cases per center). The median age was 53 years and 150 (64%) were women. A total of 51 subjects died during 5-year follow-up (cumulative 5-year all-cause mortality = 30%). From a multiple variable Cox proportional hazards model, the following variables were significantly associated with 5-year mortality: age at refractory coeliac disease diagnosis (per 20 year increase, hazard ratio = 2.21; 95% confidence interval: 1.38, 3.55), abnormal intraepithelial lymphocytes (hazard ratio = 2.85; 95% confidence interval: 1.22, 6.62), and albumin (per 0.5 unit increase, hazard ratio = 0.72; 95% confidence interval: 0.61, 0.85). A simple weighted 3-factor risk score was created to estimate 5-year survival. Conclusions Using data from a multinational registry and previously-reported risk factors, we create a prognostic model to predict 5-year mortality among patients with refractory coeliac disease. This new model may help clinicians to guide treatment and follow-up. PMID:27485029

Changes in Choice Reaction Time During and After 8 Days Exhaustive Cycling Are Not Related to Changes in Physical Performance.

PubMed

Ten Haaf, Twan; van Staveren, Selma; Iannetta, Danilo; Roelands, Bart; Meeusen, Romain; Piacentini, Maria F; Foster, Carl; Koenderman, Leo; Daanen, Hein A M; de Koning, Jos J

2018-04-01

Reaction time has been proposed as a training monitoring tool, but to date, results are equivocal. Therefore, it was investigated whether reaction time can be used as a monitoring tool to establish overreaching. The study included 30 subjects (11 females and 19 males, age: 40.8 [10.8] years, VO 2max : 51.8 [6.3] mL/kg/min) who participated in an 8-day cycling event. The external exercise load increased approximately 900% compared with the preparation period. Performance was measured before and after the event using a maximal incremental cycling test. Subjects with decreased performance after the event were classified as functionally overreached (FOR) and others as acutely fatigued (AF). A choice reaction time test was performed 2 weeks before (pre), 1 week after (post), and 5 weeks after (follow-up), as well as at the start and end of the event. A total of 14 subjects were classified as AF and 14 as FOR (2 subjects were excluded). During the event, reaction time at the end was 68 ms (95% confidence interval, 46-89) faster than at the start. Reaction time post event was 41 ms (95% confidence interval, 12-71) faster than pre event and follow-up was 55 ms faster (95% confidence interval, 26-83). The time by class interaction was not significant during (P = .26) and after (P = .43) the event. Correlations between physical performance and reaction time were not significant (all Ps > .30). No differences in choice reaction time between AF and FOR subjects were observed. It is suggested that choice reaction time is not valid for early detection of overreaching in the field.

Gaussian process regression for tool wear prediction

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kong, Dongdong; Chen, Yongjie; Li, Ning

2018-05-01

To realize and accelerate the pace of intelligent manufacturing, this paper presents a novel tool wear assessment technique based on the integrated radial basis function based kernel principal component analysis (KPCA_IRBF) and Gaussian process regression (GPR) for real-timely and accurately monitoring the in-process tool wear parameters (flank wear width). The KPCA_IRBF is a kind of new nonlinear dimension-increment technique and firstly proposed for feature fusion. The tool wear predictive value and the corresponding confidence interval are both provided by utilizing the GPR model. Besides, GPR performs better than artificial neural networks (ANN) and support vector machines (SVM) in prediction accuracy since the Gaussian noises can be modeled quantitatively in the GPR model. However, the existence of noises will affect the stability of the confidence interval seriously. In this work, the proposed KPCA_IRBF technique helps to remove the noises and weaken its negative effects so as to make the confidence interval compressed greatly and more smoothed, which is conducive for monitoring the tool wear accurately. Moreover, the selection of kernel parameter in KPCA_IRBF can be easily carried out in a much larger selectable region in comparison with the conventional KPCA_RBF technique, which helps to improve the efficiency of model construction. Ten sets of cutting tests are conducted to validate the effectiveness of the presented tool wear assessment technique. The experimental results show that the in-process flank wear width of tool inserts can be monitored accurately by utilizing the presented tool wear assessment technique which is robust under a variety of cutting conditions. This study lays the foundation for tool wear monitoring in real industrial settings.

Systematic reviews need to consider applicability to disadvantaged populations: inter-rater agreement for a health equity plausibility algorithm

PubMed Central

2012-01-01

Background Systematic reviews have been challenged to consider effects on disadvantaged groups. A priori specification of subgroup analyses is recommended to increase the credibility of these analyses. This study aimed to develop and assess inter-rater agreement for an algorithm for systematic review authors to predict whether differences in effect measures are likely for disadvantaged populations relative to advantaged populations (only relative effect measures were addressed). Methods A health equity plausibility algorithm was developed using clinimetric methods with three items based on literature review, key informant interviews and methodology studies. The three items dealt with the plausibility of differences in relative effects across sex or socioeconomic status (SES) due to: 1) patient characteristics; 2) intervention delivery (i.e., implementation); and 3) comparators. Thirty-five respondents (consisting of clinicians, methodologists and research users) assessed the likelihood of differences across sex and SES for ten systematic reviews with these questions. We assessed inter-rater reliability using Fleiss multi-rater kappa. Results The proportion agreement was 66% for patient characteristics (95% confidence interval: 61%-71%), 67% for intervention delivery (95% confidence interval: 62% to 72%) and 55% for the comparator (95% confidence interval: 50% to 60%). Inter-rater kappa, assessed with Fleiss kappa, ranged from 0 to 0.199, representing very low agreement beyond chance. Conclusions Users of systematic reviews rated that important differences in relative effects across sex and socioeconomic status were plausible for a range of individual and population-level interventions. However, there was very low inter-rater agreement for these assessments. There is an unmet need for discussion of plausibility of differential effects in systematic reviews. Increased consideration of external validity and applicability to different populations and settings is warranted in systematic reviews to meet this need. PMID:23253632

Pelvic Floor Disorders After Childbirth: Effect of Episiotomy, Perineal Laceration, and Operative Birth

PubMed Central

Handa, Victoria L.; Blomquist, Joan L.; McDermott, Kelly C.; Friedman, Sarah; Muñoz, Alvaro

2011-01-01

Objective To investigate whether episiotomy, perineal laceration, and operative delivery are associated with pelvic floor disorders after vaginal childbirth. Methods This is a planned analysis of data for a cohort study of pelvic floor disorders. Participants who had experienced at least one vaginal birth were recruited 5–10 years after delivery of their first child. Obstetric exposures were classified by review of hospital records. At enrollment, pelvic floor outcomes, including stress incontinence, overactive bladder, anal incontinence, and prolapse symptoms were assessed with a validated questionnaire. Pelvic organ support was assessed using the Pelvic Organ Prolapse Quantification system. Logistic regression analysis was used to estimate the relative odds of each pelvic floor disorder by obstetric history, adjusting for relevant confounders. Results Of 449 participants, 71 (16%) had stress incontinence, 45 (10%) had overactive bladder, 56 (12%) had anal incontinence, 19 (4%) had prolapse symptoms and 64 (14%) had prolapse to or beyond the hymen on examination. Forceps delivery increased the odds of each pelvic floor disorder considered, especially overactive bladder (odds ratio 2.92, 95% confidence interval 1.44, 5.93) and prolapse (odds ratio 1.95, 95% confidence interval 1.03, 3.70). Episiotomy was not associated with any of these pelvic floor disorders. In contrast, women with a history of more than one spontaneous perineal laceration were significantly more likely to have prolapse to or beyond the hymen (odds ratio 2.34, 95% confidence interval 1.13, 4.86). Our multivariable results suggest that one additional woman would develop prolapse for every 8 women who experienced at least one forceps birth (versus delivering all her children by spontaneous vaginal birth). Conclusion Forceps deliveries and perineal lacerations, but not episiotomies, were associated with pelvic floor disorders 5–10 years after a first delivery. PMID:22227639

Systematic reviews need to consider applicability to disadvantaged populations: inter-rater agreement for a health equity plausibility algorithm.

PubMed

Welch, Vivian; Brand, Kevin; Kristjansson, Elizabeth; Smylie, Janet; Wells, George; Tugwell, Peter

2012-12-19

Systematic reviews have been challenged to consider effects on disadvantaged groups. A priori specification of subgroup analyses is recommended to increase the credibility of these analyses. This study aimed to develop and assess inter-rater agreement for an algorithm for systematic review authors to predict whether differences in effect measures are likely for disadvantaged populations relative to advantaged populations (only relative effect measures were addressed). A health equity plausibility algorithm was developed using clinimetric methods with three items based on literature review, key informant interviews and methodology studies. The three items dealt with the plausibility of differences in relative effects across sex or socioeconomic status (SES) due to: 1) patient characteristics; 2) intervention delivery (i.e., implementation); and 3) comparators. Thirty-five respondents (consisting of clinicians, methodologists and research users) assessed the likelihood of differences across sex and SES for ten systematic reviews with these questions. We assessed inter-rater reliability using Fleiss multi-rater kappa. The proportion agreement was 66% for patient characteristics (95% confidence interval: 61%-71%), 67% for intervention delivery (95% confidence interval: 62% to 72%) and 55% for the comparator (95% confidence interval: 50% to 60%). Inter-rater kappa, assessed with Fleiss kappa, ranged from 0 to 0.199, representing very low agreement beyond chance. Users of systematic reviews rated that important differences in relative effects across sex and socioeconomic status were plausible for a range of individual and population-level interventions. However, there was very low inter-rater agreement for these assessments. There is an unmet need for discussion of plausibility of differential effects in systematic reviews. Increased consideration of external validity and applicability to different populations and settings is warranted in systematic reviews to meet this need.

Genome-Wide Association Study Identifies Risk Variants for Lichen Planus in Patients With Hepatitis C Virus Infection.

PubMed

Nagao, Yumiko; Nishida, Nao; Toyo-Oka, Licht; Kawaguchi, Atsushi; Amoroso, Antonio; Carrozzo, Marco; Sata, Michio; Mizokami, Masashi; Tokunaga, Katsushi; Tanaka, Yasuhito

2017-06-01

There is a close relationship between hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection and lichen planus, a chronic inflammatory mucocutaneous disease. We performed a genome-wide association study (GWAS) to identify genetic variants associated with HCV-related lichen planus. We conducted a GWAS of 261 patients with HCV infection treated at a tertiary medical center in Japan from October 2007 through January 2013; a total of 71 had lichen planus and 190 had normal oral mucosa. We validated our findings in a GWAS of 38 patients with HCV-associated lichen planus and 7 HCV-infected patients with normal oral mucosa treated at a medical center in Italy. Single-nucleotide polymorphisms in NRP2 (rs884000) and IGFBP4 (rs538399) were associated with risk of HCV-associated lichen planus (P < 1 × 10 -4 ). We also found an association between a single-nucleotide polymorphism in the HLA-DR/DQ genes (rs9461799) and susceptibility to HCV-associated lichen planus. The odds ratios for the minor alleles of rs884000, rs538399, and rs9461799 were 3.25 (95% confidence interval, 1.95-5.41), 0.40 (95% confidence interval, 0.25-0.63), and 2.15 (95% confidence interval, 1.41-3.28), respectively. In a GWAS of Japanese patients with HCV infection, we replicated associations between previously reported polymorphisms in HLA class II genes and risk for lichen planus. We also identified single-nucleotide polymorphisms in NRP2 and IGFBP4 loci that increase and reduce risk of lichen planus, respectively. These genetic variants might be used to identify patients with HCV infection who are at risk for lichen planus. Copyright © 2017 AGA Institute. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

A NEW METHOD OF SWEAT TESTING: THE CF QUANTUM® SWEAT TEST

PubMed Central

Rock, Michael J.; Makholm, Linda; Eickhoff, Jens

2015-01-01

Background Conventional methods of sweat testing are time consuming and have many steps that can and do lead to errors. This study compares conventional sweat testing to a new quantitative method, the CF Quantum® (CFQT) sweat test. This study tests the diagnostic accuracy and analytic validity of the CFQT. Methods Previously diagnosed CF patients and patients who required a sweat test for clinical indications were invited to have the CFQT test performed. Both conventional sweat testing and the CFQT were performed bilaterally on the same day. Pairs of data from each test are plotted as a correlation graph and Bland Altman plot. Sensitivity and specificity were calculated as well as the means and coefficient of variation by test and by extremity. After completing the study, subjects or their parents were asked for their preference of the CFQT and conventional sweat testing. Results The correlation coefficient between the CFQT and conventional sweat testing was 0.98 (95% confidence interval: 0.97–0.99). The sensitivity and specificity of the CFQT in diagnosing CF was 100% (95% confidence interval: 94–100%) and 96% (95% confidence interval: 89–99%), respectively. In one center in this three center multicenter study, there were higher sweat chloride values in patients with CF and also more tests that were invalid due to discrepant values between the two extremities. The percentage of invalid tests was higher in the CFQT method (16.5%) compared to conventional sweat testing (3.8%)(p < 0.001). In the post-test questionnaire, 88% of subjects/parents preferred the CFQT test. Conclusions The CFQT is a fast and simple method of quantitative sweat chloride determination. This technology requires further refinement to improve the analytic accuracy at higher sweat chloride values and to decrease the number of invalid tests. PMID:24862724

Effect of Turbulent-Flow Pasteurization on Survival of Mycobacterium avium subsp. paratuberculosis Added to Raw Milk

PubMed Central

Pearce, Lindsay E.; Truong, H. Tuan; Crawford, Robert A.; Yates, Gary F.; Cavaignac, Sonia; de Lisle, Geoffrey W.

2001-01-01

A pilot-scale pasteurizer operating under validated turbulent flow (Reynolds number, 11,050) was used to study the heat sensitivity of Mycobacterium avium subsp. paratuberculosis added to raw milk. The ATCC 19698 type strain, ATCC 43015 (Linda, human isolate), and three bovine isolates were heated in raw whole milk for 15 s at 63, 66, 69, and 72°C in duplicate trials. No strains survived at 72°C for 15 s; and only one strain survived at 69°C. Means of pooled D values (decimal reduction times) at 63 and 66°C were 15.0 ± 2.8 s (95% confidence interval) and 5.9 ± 0.7 s (95% confidence interval), respectively. The mean extrapolated D72°C was <2.03 s. This was equivalent to a >7 log10 kill at 72°C for 15 s (95% confidence interval). The mean Z value (degrees required for the decimal reduction time to traverse one log cycle) was 8.6°C. These five strains showed similar survival whether recovery was on Herrold's egg yolk medium containing mycobactin or by a radiometric culture method (BACTEC). Milk was inoculated with fresh fecal material from a high-level fecal shedder with clinical Johne's disease. After heating at 72°C for 15 s, the minimum M. avium subsp. paratuberculosis kill was >4 log10. Properly maintained and operated equipment should ensure the absence of viable M. avium subsp. paratuberculosis in retail milk and other pasteurized dairy products. An additional safeguard is the widespread commercial practice of pasteurizing 1.5 to 2° above 72°C. PMID:11525992

Pubic Hair Grooming Injuries Presenting to U.S. Emergency Departments

PubMed Central

Glass, Allison S.; Bagga, Herman S.; Tasian, Gregory E.; Fisher, Patrick B.; McCulloch, Charles E.; Blaschko, Sarah D.; McAninch, Jack W.; Breyer, Benjamin N.

2013-01-01

OBJECTIVE To describe the demographics and mechanism of genitourinary (GU) injuries related to pubic hair grooming in patients who present to U.S. emergency departments (EDs). MATERIALS AND METHODS The National Electronic Injury Surveillance System contains prospectively collected data from patients who present to EDs with consumer product-related injuries. The National Electronic Injury Surveillance System is a stratified probability sample, validated to provide national estimates of all patients who present to U.S. EDs with an injury. We reviewed the National Electronic Injury Surveillance System to identify incidents of GU injury related to pubic hair grooming for 2002–2010. The variables reviewed included age, race, gender, injury type, location (organ) of injury, hospital disposition, and grooming product. RESULTS From 2002 to 2010, an observed 335 actual ED visits for GU injury related to grooming products provided an estimated 11,704 incidents (95% confidence interval 8430–15,004). The number of incidents increased fivefold during that period, amounting to an estimated increase of 247 incidents annually (95% confidence interval 110–384, P = .001). Of the cohort, 56.7% were women. The mean age was 30.8 years (95% confidence interval 28.8–32.9). Shaving razors were implicated in 83% of the injuries. Laceration was the most common type of injury (36.6%). The most common site of injury was the external female genitalia (36.0%). Most injuries (97.3%) were treated within the ED, with subsequent patient discharge. CONCLUSION Most GU injuries that result from the use of grooming products are minor and involve the use of razors. The demographics of patients with GU injuries from grooming products largely paralleled observations about cultural grooming trends in the United States. PMID:23040729

Pubic hair grooming injuries presenting to U.S. emergency departments.

PubMed

Glass, Allison S; Bagga, Herman S; Tasian, Gregory E; Fisher, Patrick B; McCulloch, Charles E; Blaschko, Sarah D; McAninch, Jack W; Breyer, Benjamin N

2012-12-01

To describe the demographics and mechanism of genitourinary (GU) injuries related to pubic hair grooming in patients who present to U.S. emergency departments (EDs). The National Electronic Injury Surveillance System contains prospectively collected data from patients who present to EDs with consumer product-related injuries. The National Electronic Injury Surveillance System is a stratified probability sample, validated to provide national estimates of all patients who present to U.S. EDs with an injury. We reviewed the National Electronic Injury Surveillance System to identify incidents of GU injury related to pubic hair grooming for 2002-2010. The variables reviewed included age, race, gender, injury type, location (organ) of injury, hospital disposition, and grooming product. From 2002 to 2010, an observed 335 actual ED visits for GU injury related to grooming products provided an estimated 11,704 incidents (95% confidence interval 8430-15,004). The number of incidents increased fivefold during that period, amounting to an estimated increase of 247 incidents annually (95% confidence interval 110-384, P = .001). Of the cohort, 56.7% were women. The mean age was 30.8 years (95% confidence interval 28.8-32.9). Shaving razors were implicated in 83% of the injuries. Laceration was the most common type of injury (36.6%). The most common site of injury was the external female genitalia (36.0%). Most injuries (97.3%) were treated within the ED, with subsequent patient discharge. Most GU injuries that result from the use of grooming products are minor and involve the use of razors. The demographics of patients with GU injuries from grooming products largely paralleled observations about cultural grooming trends in the United States. Published by Elsevier Inc.

Fasting plasma glucose, oral glucose tolerance test, and the risk of first-time venous thromboembolism. A report from the VEINS cohort study.

PubMed

Johansson, Magdalena; Lind, Marcus; Jansson, Jan-Håkan; Fhärm, Eva; Johansson, Lars

2018-05-01

It remains unclear whether high plasma glucose levels are associated with venous thromboembolism (VTE). This study investigated the association between fasting plasma glucose (FPG), oral glucose tolerance test (two-hour post-load plasma glucose (2HPG)), diabetes, and VTE. The population-based, prospective Venous thromboEmbolism In Northern Sweden (VEINS) cohort study included 108,025 residents of Västerbotten County in northern Sweden. The participants were aged 30 to 60 years and had no previous VTE events. They were included from 1985 onwards and were followed until a VTE event, death, emigration, or the study end on September 5, 2014. All underwent a health examination that measured weight, height, FPG, and 2HPG and included a questionnaire regarding smoking, education level, and history of diabetes. Potential VTE events were identified by an extensive diagnosis registry search and were validated by reviewing medical records and radiology reports. An objectively verified first-time VTE event was experienced by 2054 participants during 1,496,669 person-years of follow-up. In univariable analysis, there were associations between FPG, 2HPG, diabetes, and the risk of VTE. These associations disappeared after adjustment for potential confounders (age, sex, body mass index, cancer at inclusion, education level, smoking, and hypertension). The adjusted hazard ratios were 1.01 (95% confidence interval 0.83-1.23) for diabetes, 1.01 for each standard deviation of FPG (95% confidence interval 0.97-1.05), and 0.96 for each standard deviation of 2HPG (95% confidence interval 0.91-1.00). There were no independent associations between FPG, 2HPG, diabetes, and future risk of VTE. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

speed-ne: Software to simulate and estimate genetic effective population size (Ne ) from linkage disequilibrium observed in single samples.

PubMed

Hamilton, Matthew B; Tartakovsky, Maria; Battocletti, Amy

2018-05-01

The genetic effective population size, N e , can be estimated from the average gametic disequilibrium (r2^) between pairs of loci, but such estimates require evaluation of assumptions and currently have few methods to estimate confidence intervals. speed-ne is a suite of matlab computer code functions to estimate Ne^ from r2^ with a graphical user interface and a rich set of outputs that aid in understanding data patterns and comparing multiple estimators. speed-ne includes functions to either generate or input simulated genotype data to facilitate comparative studies of Ne^ estimators under various population genetic scenarios. speed-ne was validated with data simulated under both time-forward and time-backward coalescent models of genetic drift. Three classes of estimators were compared with simulated data to examine several general questions: what are the impacts of microsatellite null alleles on Ne^, how should missing data be treated, and does disequilibrium contributed by reduced recombination among some loci in a sample impact Ne^. Estimators differed greatly in precision in the scenarios examined, and a widely employed Ne^ estimator exhibited the largest variances among replicate data sets. speed-ne implements several jackknife approaches to estimate confidence intervals, and simulated data showed that jackknifing over loci and jackknifing over individuals provided ~95% confidence interval coverage for some estimators and should be useful for empirical studies. speed-ne provides an open-source extensible tool for estimation of Ne^ from empirical genotype data and to conduct simulations of both microsatellite and single nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) data types to develop expectations and to compare Ne^ estimators. © 2018 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Expression of Proteins Involved in Epithelial-Mesenchymal Transition as Predictors of Metastasis and Survival in Breast Cancer Patients

DTIC Science & Technology

2013-11-01

Ptrend 0.78 0.62 0.75 Unconditional logistic regression was used to estimate odds ratios (OR) and 95 % confidence intervals (CI) for risk of node...Ptrend 0.71 0.67 Unconditional logistic regression was used to estimate odds ratios (OR) and 95 % confidence intervals (CI) for risk of high-grade tumors... logistic regression was used to estimate odds ratios (OR) and 95 % confidence intervals (CI) for the associations between each of the seven SNPs and

Mean estimation in highly skewed samples

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Pederson, S P

The problem of inference for the mean of a highly asymmetric distribution is considered. Even with large sample sizes, usual asymptotics based on normal theory give poor answers, as the right-hand tail of the distribution is often under-sampled. This paper attempts to improve performance in two ways. First, modifications of the standard confidence interval procedure are examined. Second, diagnostics are proposed to indicate whether or not inferential procedures are likely to be valid. The problems are illustrated with data simulated from an absolute value Cauchy distribution. 4 refs., 2 figs., 1 tab.

A short note on jackknifing the concordance correlation coefficient.

PubMed

Feng, Dai; Baumgartner, Richard; Svetnik, Vladimir

2014-02-10

Lin's concordance correlation coefficient (CCC) is a very popular scaled index of agreement used in applied statistics. To obtain a confidence interval (CI) for the estimate of CCC, jackknifing was proposed and shown to perform well in simulation as well as in applications. However, a theoretical proof of the validity of the jackknife CI for the CCC has not been presented yet. In this note, we establish a sufficient condition for using the jackknife method to construct the CI for the CCC. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Closed-form confidence intervals for functions of the normal mean and standard deviation.

PubMed

Donner, Allan; Zou, G Y

2012-08-01

Confidence interval methods for a normal mean and standard deviation are well known and simple to apply. However, the same cannot be said for important functions of these parameters. These functions include the normal distribution percentiles, the Bland-Altman limits of agreement, the coefficient of variation and Cohen's effect size. We present a simple approach to this problem by using variance estimates recovered from confidence limits computed for the mean and standard deviation separately. All resulting confidence intervals have closed forms. Simulation results demonstrate that this approach performs very well for limits of agreement, coefficients of variation and their differences.

Comparison of the resulting error in data fusion techniques when used with remote sensing, earth observation, and in-situ data sets for water quality applications

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ziemba, Alexander; El Serafy, Ghada

2016-04-01

Ecological modeling and water quality investigations are complex processes which can require a high level of parameterization and a multitude of varying data sets in order to properly execute the model in question. Since models are generally complex, their calibration and validation can benefit from the application of data and information fusion techniques. The data applied to ecological models comes from a wide range of sources such as remote sensing, earth observation, and in-situ measurements, resulting in a high variability in the temporal and spatial resolution of the various data sets available to water quality investigators. It is proposed that effective fusion into a comprehensive singular set will provide a more complete and robust data resource with which models can be calibrated, validated, and driven by. Each individual product contains a unique valuation of error resulting from the method of measurement and application of pre-processing techniques. The uncertainty and error is further compounded when the data being fused is of varying temporal and spatial resolution. In order to have a reliable fusion based model and data set, the uncertainty of the results and confidence interval of the data being reported must be effectively communicated to those who would utilize the data product or model outputs in a decision making process[2]. Here we review an array of data fusion techniques applied to various remote sensing, earth observation, and in-situ data sets whose domains' are varied in spatial and temporal resolution. The data sets examined are combined in a manner so that the various classifications, complementary, redundant, and cooperative, of data are all assessed to determine classification's impact on the propagation and compounding of error. In order to assess the error of the fused data products, a comparison is conducted with data sets containing a known confidence interval and quality rating. We conclude with a quantification of the performance of the data fusion techniques and a recommendation on the feasibility of applying of the fused products in operating forecast systems and modeling scenarios. The error bands and confidence intervals derived can be used in order to clarify the error and confidence of water quality variables produced by prediction and forecasting models. References [1] F. Castanedo, "A Review of Data Fusion Techniques", The Scientific World Journal, vol. 2013, pp. 1-19, 2013. [2] T. Keenan, M. Carbone, M. Reichstein and A. Richardson, "The model-data fusion pitfall: assuming certainty in an uncertain world", Oecologia, vol. 167, no. 3, pp. 587-597, 2011.

Assessing equity of healthcare utilization in rural China: results from nationally representative surveys from 1993 to 2008

PubMed Central

2013-01-01

Background The phenomenon of inequitable healthcare utilization in rural China interests policymakers and researchers; however, the inequity has not been actually measured to present the magnitude and trend using nationally representative data. Methods Based on the National Health Service Survey (NHSS) in 1993, 1998, 2003, and 2008, the Probit model with the probability of outpatient visit and the probability of inpatient visit as the dependent variables is applied to estimate need-predicted healthcare utilization. Furthermore, need-standardized healthcare utilization is assessed through indirect standardization method. Concentration index is measured to reflect income-related inequity of healthcare utilization. Results The concentration index of need-standardized outpatient utilization is 0.0486[95% confidence interval (0.0399, 0.0574)], 0.0310[95% confidence interval (0.0229, 0.0390)], 0.0167[95% confidence interval (0.0069, 0.0264)] and −0.0108[95% confidence interval (−0.0213, -0.0004)] in 1993, 1998, 2003 and 2008, respectively. For inpatient service, the concentration index is 0.0529[95% confidence interval (0.0349, 0.0709)], 0.1543[95% confidence interval (0.1356, 0.1730)], 0.2325[95% confidence interval (0.2132, 0.2518)] and 0.1313[95% confidence interval (0.1174, 0.1451)] in 1993, 1998, 2003 and 2008, respectively. Conclusions Utilization of both outpatient and inpatient services was pro-rich in rural China with the exception of outpatient service in 2008. With the same needs for healthcare, rich rural residents utilized more healthcare service than poor rural residents. Compared to utilization of outpatient service, utilization of inpatient service was more inequitable. Inequity of utilization of outpatient service reduced gradually from 1993 to 2008; meanwhile, inequity of inpatient service utilization increased dramatically from 1993 to 2003 and decreased significantly from 2003 to 2008. Recent attempts in China to increase coverage of insurance and primary healthcare could be a contributing factor to counteract the inequity of outpatient utilization, but better benefit packages and delivery strategies still need to be tested and scaled up to reduce future inequity in inpatient utilization in rural China. PMID:23688260

Reference datasets for 2-treatment, 2-sequence, 2-period bioequivalence studies.

PubMed

Schütz, Helmut; Labes, Detlew; Fuglsang, Anders

2014-11-01

It is difficult to validate statistical software used to assess bioequivalence since very few datasets with known results are in the public domain, and the few that are published are of moderate size and balanced. The purpose of this paper is therefore to introduce reference datasets of varying complexity in terms of dataset size and characteristics (balance, range, outlier presence, residual error distribution) for 2-treatment, 2-period, 2-sequence bioequivalence studies and to report their point estimates and 90% confidence intervals which companies can use to validate their installations. The results for these datasets were calculated using the commercial packages EquivTest, Kinetica, SAS and WinNonlin, and the non-commercial package R. The results of three of these packages mostly agree, but imbalance between sequences seems to provoke questionable results with one package, which illustrates well the need for proper software validation.

Validation of nomograms for overall survival, cancer-specific survival, and recurrence in carcinoma of the major salivary glands.

PubMed

Hay, Ashley; Migliacci, Jocelyn; Zanoni, Daniella Karassawa; Patel, Snehal; Yu, Changhong; Kattan, Michael W; Ganly, Ian

2018-05-01

The purpose of this study was to investigate the performance of the Memorial Sloan Kettering Cancer Center salivary carcinoma nomograms predicting overall survival, cancer-specific survival, and recurrence with an external validation dataset. The validation dataset comprised 123 patients treated between 2010 and 2015 at our institution. They were evaluated by assessing discrimination (concordance index [C-index]) and calibration (plotting predicted vs actual probabilities for quintiles). The validation cohort (n = 123) showed some differences to the original cohort (n = 301). The validation cohort had less high-grade cancers (P = .006), less lymphovascular invasion (LVI; P < .001) and shorter follow-up of 19 months versus 45.6 months. Validation showed a C-index of 0.833 (95% confidence interval [CI] 0.758-0.908), 0.807 (95% CI 0.717-0.898), and 0.844 (95% CI 0.768-0.920) for overall survival, cancer-specific survival, and recurrence, respectively. The 3 salivary gland nomograms performed well using a contemporary validation dataset, despite limitations related to sample size, follow-up, and differences in clinical and pathology characteristics between the original and validation cohorts. © 2018 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Confidence Intervals for True Scores Using the Skew-Normal Distribution

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Garcia-Perez, Miguel A.

2010-01-01

A recent comparative analysis of alternative interval estimation approaches and procedures has shown that confidence intervals (CIs) for true raw scores determined with the Score method--which uses the normal approximation to the binomial distribution--have actual coverage probabilities that are closest to their nominal level. It has also recently…

The Role of Short-Term Memory Capacity and Task Experience for Overconfidence in Judgment under Uncertainty

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Hansson, Patrik; Juslin, Peter; Winman, Anders

2008-01-01

Research with general knowledge items demonstrates extreme overconfidence when people estimate confidence intervals for unknown quantities, but close to zero overconfidence when the same intervals are assessed by probability judgment. In 3 experiments, the authors investigated if the overconfidence specific to confidence intervals derives from…

Confidence Intervals for Weighted Composite Scores under the Compound Binomial Error Model

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Kim, Kyung Yong; Lee, Won-Chan

2018-01-01

Reporting confidence intervals with test scores helps test users make important decisions about examinees by providing information about the precision of test scores. Although a variety of estimation procedures based on the binomial error model are available for computing intervals for test scores, these procedures assume that items are randomly…

Psychometric properties of the Activities-specific Balance Confidence Scale among individuals with a lower-limb amputation.

PubMed

Miller, William C; Deathe, A Barry; Speechley, Mark

2003-05-01

To evaluate the internal consistency, test-retest reliability, and construct validity of the Activities-specific Balance Confidence (ABC) Scale among people who have a lower-limb amputation. Retest design. A university-affiliated outpatient amputee clinic in Ontario. Two samples of individuals who have unilateral transtibial and transfemoral amputation. Sample 1 (n=54) was a consecutive and sample 2 (n=329) a convenience sample of all members of the clinic population. Not applicable. Repeated application of the ABC Scale, a 16-item questionnaire that assesses confidence in performing various mobility-related tasks. Correlation to test hypothesized relationships between the ABC Scale and the 2-minute walk (2MWT) and the timed up-and-go (TUG) tests; and assessment of the ability of the ABC Scale to discriminate among groups based on amputation cause, amputation level, mobility device use, automatic stepping ability, wearing time, stair climbing ability, and walking distance. Test-retest reliability (intraclass correlation coefficient) of the ABC Scale was .91 (95% confidence interval [CI], .84-.95) with individual item test-retest coefficients ranging from .53 to .87. Internal consistency, measured by Cronbach alpha, was .95. Hypothesized associations with the 2MWT and TUG test were observed with correlations of .72 (95% CI, .56-.84) and -.70 (95% CI, -.82 to -.53), respectively. The ABC Scale discriminated between all groups except those based on amputation level. Balance confidence, as measured by the ABC Scale, is a construct that provides unique information potentially useful to clinicians who provide amputee rehabilitation. The ABC Scale is reliable, with strong support for validity. Study of the scale's responsiveness is recommended.

Towards the estimation of effect measures in studies using respondent-driven sampling.

PubMed

Rotondi, Michael A

2014-06-01

Respondent-driven sampling (RDS) is an increasingly common sampling technique to recruit hidden populations. Statistical methods for RDS are not straightforward due to the correlation between individual outcomes and subject weighting; thus, analyses are typically limited to estimation of population proportions. This manuscript applies the method of variance estimates recovery (MOVER) to construct confidence intervals for effect measures such as risk difference (difference of proportions) or relative risk in studies using RDS. To illustrate the approach, MOVER is used to construct confidence intervals for differences in the prevalence of demographic characteristics between an RDS study and convenience study of injection drug users. MOVER is then applied to obtain a confidence interval for the relative risk between education levels and HIV seropositivity and current infection with syphilis, respectively. This approach provides a simple method to construct confidence intervals for effect measures in RDS studies. Since it only relies on a proportion and appropriate confidence limits, it can also be applied to previously published manuscripts.

Generalized anxiety disorder prevalence and comorbidity with depression in coronary heart disease: a meta-analysis.

PubMed

Tully, Phillip J; Cosh, Suzanne M

2013-12-01

Generalized anxiety disorder prevalence and comorbidity with depression in coronary heart disease patients remain unquantified. Systematic searching of Medline, Embase, SCOPUS and PsycINFO databases revealed 1025 unique citations. Aggregate generalized anxiety disorder prevalence (12 studies, N = 3485) was 10.94 per cent (95% confidence interval: 7.8-13.99) and 13.52 per cent (95% confidence interval: 8.39-18.66) employing Diagnostic and Statistical Manual of Mental Disorders, Fourth Edition criteria (random effects). Lifetime generalized anxiety disorder prevalence was 25.80 per cent (95% confidence interval: 20.84-30.77). In seven studies, modest correlation was evident between generalized anxiety disorder and depression, Fisher's Z = .30 (95% confidence interval: .19-.42), suggesting that each psychiatric disorder is best conceptualized as contributing unique variance to coronary heart disease prognosis.

Autonomous motivation mediates the relation between goals for physical activity and physical activity behavior in adolescents.

PubMed

Duncan, Michael J; Eyre, Emma Lj; Bryant, Elizabeth; Seghers, Jan; Galbraith, Niall; Nevill, Alan M

2017-04-01

Overall, 544 children (mean age ± standard deviation = 14.2 ± .94 years) completed self-report measures of physical activity goal content, behavioral regulations, and physical activity behavior. Body mass index was determined from height and mass. The indirect effect of intrinsic goal content on physical activity was statistically significant via autonomous ( b = 162.27; 95% confidence interval [89.73, 244.70]), but not controlled motivation ( b = 5.30; 95% confidence interval [-39.05, 45.16]). The indirect effect of extrinsic goal content on physical activity was statistically significant via autonomous ( b = 106.25; 95% confidence interval [63.74, 159.13]) but not controlled motivation ( b = 17.28; 95% confidence interval [-31.76, 70.21]). Weight status did not alter these findings.

Confidence intervals for a difference between lognormal means in cluster randomization trials.

PubMed

Poirier, Julia; Zou, G Y; Koval, John

2017-04-01

Cluster randomization trials, in which intact social units are randomized to different interventions, have become popular in the last 25 years. Outcomes from these trials in many cases are positively skewed, following approximately lognormal distributions. When inference is focused on the difference between treatment arm arithmetic means, existent confidence interval procedures either make restricting assumptions or are complex to implement. We approach this problem by assuming log-transformed outcomes from each treatment arm follow a one-way random effects model. The treatment arm means are functions of multiple parameters for which separate confidence intervals are readily available, suggesting that the method of variance estimates recovery may be applied to obtain closed-form confidence intervals. A simulation study showed that this simple approach performs well in small sample sizes in terms of empirical coverage, relatively balanced tail errors, and interval widths as compared to existing methods. The methods are illustrated using data arising from a cluster randomization trial investigating a critical pathway for the treatment of community acquired pneumonia.

Pyruvate kinase M2 prevents apoptosis via modulating Bim stability and associates with poor outcome in hepatocellular carcinoma

PubMed Central

Li, Min; Zhang, Chao; Liu, Li-Li; Fu, Jia; Jin, Jie-Tian; Luo, Rong-Zhen; Zhang, Chris Zhiyi; Yun, Jing-Ping

2015-01-01

Pyruvate kinase M2 (PKM2) contributes to the Warburg effect, a hallmark of cancer. We showed that PKM2 levels were correlated with overall survival (hazard ration = 1.675, 95% confidence interval: 1.389–2.019, P < 0.001) and disease-free survival (hazard ration = 1.573, 95% confidence interval: 1.214–2.038, P < 0.001) in a cohort of 490 patients with HCC. The correlations were further validated in an independent cohort of 148 HCC patients. Multivariate analyses revealed that PKM2 was an independent indicator of poor outcome in HCC. The knockdown of PKM2 in HCC cells inhibited cell proliferation and induced apoptosis in vitro and in vivo. Bim siRNA markedly abolished the PKM2-depletion-induced apoptosis. PKM2 depletion decreased the degradation of Bim. In clinical samples, PKM2 expression was reversely correlated with Bim expression. Combination of PKM2 and Bim levels had the best prognostic significance. We suggest that PKM2 serves as a promising biomarker for poor prognosis of patients with HCC and its knockdown induces HCC apoptosis by stabilizing Bim. PMID:25788265

Lymphocyte-to-monocyte ratio is associated with survival in pembrolizumab-treated metastatic melanoma patients.

PubMed

Failing, Jarrett J; Yan, Yiyi; Porrata, Luis F; Markovic, Svetomir N

2017-12-01

The peripheral blood lymphocyte-to-monocyte ratio (LMR) has been associated with prognosis in many malignancies including metastatic melanoma. However, it has not been studied in patients treated with immune checkpoint inhibitors. In this study, we analyzed the baseline LMR with progression-free survival (PFS) and overall survival (OS) in metastatic melanoma patients treated with pembrolizumab. A total of 133 patients with metastatic melanoma treated with pembrolizumab were included in this retrospective study. LMR was calculated from pretherapy peripheral blood counts and the optimal cutoff value was determined by a receiver operator characteristic curve. PFS and OS were evaluated using the Kaplan-Meier method and multivariate Cox proportional hazard modeling. Patients with an LMR of at least 1.7 showed improved PFS (hazard ratio=0.55; 95% confidence interval: 0.34-0.92; P=0.024) and OS (hazard ratio=0.29; 95% confidence interval: 0.15-0.59; P=0.0007). The baseline LMR is associated with PFS and OS in metastatic melanoma patients treated with pembrolizumab, and could represent a convenient and cost-effective prognostic biomarker. Validation of these findings in an independent cohort is needed.

The Distribution of the Product Explains Normal Theory Mediation Confidence Interval Estimation.

PubMed

Kisbu-Sakarya, Yasemin; MacKinnon, David P; Miočević, Milica

2014-05-01

The distribution of the product has several useful applications. One of these applications is its use to form confidence intervals for the indirect effect as the product of 2 regression coefficients. The purpose of this article is to investigate how the moments of the distribution of the product explain normal theory mediation confidence interval coverage and imbalance. Values of the critical ratio for each random variable are used to demonstrate how the moments of the distribution of the product change across values of the critical ratio observed in research studies. Results of the simulation study showed that as skewness in absolute value increases, coverage decreases. And as skewness in absolute value and kurtosis increases, imbalance increases. The difference between testing the significance of the indirect effect using the normal theory versus the asymmetric distribution of the product is further illustrated with a real data example. This article is the first study to show the direct link between the distribution of the product and indirect effect confidence intervals and clarifies the results of previous simulation studies by showing why normal theory confidence intervals for indirect effects are often less accurate than those obtained from the asymmetric distribution of the product or from resampling methods.

Prolonged corrected QT interval is predictive of future stroke events even in subjects without ECG-diagnosed left ventricular hypertrophy.

PubMed

Ishikawa, Joji; Ishikawa, Shizukiyo; Kario, Kazuomi

2015-03-01

We attempted to evaluate whether subjects who exhibit prolonged corrected QT (QTc) interval (≥440 ms in men and ≥460 ms in women) on ECG, with and without ECG-diagnosed left ventricular hypertrophy (ECG-LVH; Cornell product, ≥244 mV×ms), are at increased risk of stroke. Among the 10 643 subjects, there were a total of 375 stroke events during the follow-up period (128.7±28.1 months; 114 142 person-years). The subjects with prolonged QTc interval (hazard ratio, 2.13; 95% confidence interval, 1.22-3.73) had an increased risk of stroke even after adjustment for ECG-LVH (hazard ratio, 1.71; 95% confidence interval, 1.22-2.40). When we stratified the subjects into those with neither a prolonged QTc interval nor ECG-LVH, those with a prolonged QTc interval but without ECG-LVH, and those with ECG-LVH, multivariate-adjusted Cox proportional hazards analysis demonstrated that the subjects with prolonged QTc intervals but not ECG-LVH (1.2% of all subjects; incidence, 10.7%; hazard ratio, 2.70, 95% confidence interval, 1.48-4.94) and those with ECG-LVH (incidence, 7.9%; hazard ratio, 1.83; 95% confidence interval, 1.31-2.57) had an increased risk of stroke events, compared with those with neither a prolonged QTc interval nor ECG-LVH. In conclusion, prolonged QTc interval was associated with stroke risk even among patients without ECG-LVH in the general population. © 2014 American Heart Association, Inc.

Calculating Confidence Intervals for Regional Economic Impacts of Recreastion by Bootstrapping Visitor Expenditures

Treesearch

Donald B.K. English

2000-01-01

In this paper I use bootstrap procedures to develop confidence intervals for estimates of total industrial output generated per thousand tourist visits. Mean expenditures from replicated visitor expenditure data included weights to correct for response bias. Impacts were estimated with IMPLAN. Ninety percent interval endpoints were 6 to 16 percent above or below the...

Ruling out Legionella in community-acquired pneumonia.

PubMed

Haubitz, Sebastian; Hitz, Fabienne; Graedel, Lena; Batschwaroff, Marcus; Wiemken, Timothy Lee; Peyrani, Paula; Ramirez, Julio A; Fux, Christoph Andreas; Mueller, Beat; Schuetz, Philipp

2014-10-01

Assessing the likelihood for Legionella sp. in community-acquired pneumonia is important because of differences in treatment regimens. Currently used antigen tests and culture have limited sensitivity with important time delays, making empirical broad-spectrum coverage necessary. Therefore, a score with 6 variables recently has been proposed. We sought to validate these parameters in an independent cohort. We analyzed adult patients with community-acquired pneumonia from a large multinational database (Community Acquired Pneumonia Organization) who were treated between 2001 and 2012 with more than 4 of the 6 prespecified clinical variables available. Association and discrimination were assessed using logistic regression analysis and area under the curve (AUC). Of 1939 included patients, the infectious cause was known in 594 (28.9%), including Streptococcus pneumoniae in 264 (13.6%) and Legionella sp. in 37 (1.9%). The proposed clinical predictors fever, cough, hyponatremia, lactate dehydrogenase, C-reactive protein, and platelet count were all associated or tended to be associated with Legionella cause. A logistic regression analysis including all these predictors showed excellent discrimination with an AUC of 0.91 (95% confidence interval, 0.87-0.94). The original dichotomized score showed good discrimination (AUC, 0.73; 95% confidence interval, 0.65-0.81) and a high negative predictive value of 99% for patients with less than 2 parameters present. With the use of a large independent patient sample from an international database, this analysis validates previously proposed clinical variables to accurately rule out Legionella sp., which may help to optimize initial empiric therapy. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Association Between Internalized HIV-Related Stigma and HIV Care Visit Adherence.

PubMed

Rice, Whitney S; Crockett, Kaylee B; Mugavero, Michael J; Raper, James L; Atkins, Ghislaine C; Turan, Bulent

2017-12-15

Internalized HIV-related stigma acts as a barrier to antiretroviral therapy (ART) adherence, but its effects on other HIV care continuum outcomes are unclear. Among 196 HIV clinic patients in Birmingham, AL, we assessed internalized HIV-related stigma and depressive symptom severity using validated multi-item scales and assessed ART adherence using a validated single-item measure. HIV visit adherence (attended out of total scheduled visits) was calculated using data from clinic records. Using covariate-adjusted regression analysis, we investigated the association between internalized stigma and visit adherence. Using path analytic methods with bootstrapping, we tested the mediating role of depressive symptoms in the association between internalized stigma and visit adherence and the mediating role of visit adherence in the association between internalized stigma and ART adherence. Higher internalized stigma was associated with lower visit adherence (B = -0.04, P = 0.04). Black (versus white) race and depressive symptoms were other significant predictors within this model. Mediation analysis yielded no indirect effect through depression in the association between internalized stigma and visit adherence (B = -0.18, SE = 0.11, 95% confidence interval: -0.44 to -0.02) in the whole sample. Supplemental mediated moderation analyses revealed gender-specific effects. Additionally, the effect of internalized stigma on suboptimal ART adherence was mediated by lower visit adherence (B = -0.18, SE = 0.11, 95% confidence interval: -0.44 to -0.02). Results highlight the importance of internalized HIV stigma to multiple and sequential HIV care continuum outcomes. Also, findings suggest multiple intervention targets, including addressing internalized stigma directly, reducing depressive symptoms, and promoting consistent engagement in care.

Rank score and permutation testing alternatives for regression quantile estimates

USGS Publications Warehouse

Cade, B.S.; Richards, J.D.; Mielke, P.W.

2006-01-01

Performance of quantile rank score tests used for hypothesis testing and constructing confidence intervals for linear quantile regression estimates (0 ≤ τ ≤ 1) were evaluated by simulation for models with p = 2 and 6 predictors, moderate collinearity among predictors, homogeneous and hetero-geneous errors, small to moderate samples (n = 20–300), and central to upper quantiles (0.50–0.99). Test statistics evaluated were the conventional quantile rank score T statistic distributed as χ2 random variable with q degrees of freedom (where q parameters are constrained by H 0:) and an F statistic with its sampling distribution approximated by permutation. The permutation F-test maintained better Type I errors than the T-test for homogeneous error models with smaller n and more extreme quantiles τ. An F distributional approximation of the F statistic provided some improvements in Type I errors over the T-test for models with > 2 parameters, smaller n, and more extreme quantiles but not as much improvement as the permutation approximation. Both rank score tests required weighting to maintain correct Type I errors when heterogeneity under the alternative model increased to 5 standard deviations across the domain of X. A double permutation procedure was developed to provide valid Type I errors for the permutation F-test when null models were forced through the origin. Power was similar for conditions where both T- and F-tests maintained correct Type I errors but the F-test provided some power at smaller n and extreme quantiles when the T-test had no power because of excessively conservative Type I errors. When the double permutation scheme was required for the permutation F-test to maintain valid Type I errors, power was less than for the T-test with decreasing sample size and increasing quantiles. Confidence intervals on parameters and tolerance intervals for future predictions were constructed based on test inversion for an example application relating trout densities to stream channel width:depth.

Does blood transfusion affect intermediate survival after coronary artery bypass surgery?

PubMed

Mikkola, R; Heikkinen, J; Lahtinen, J; Paone, R; Juvonen, T; Biancari, F

2013-01-01

The aim of this study was to investigate the impact of transfusion of blood products on intermediate outcome after coronary artery bypass surgery. Complete data on perioperative blood transfusion in patients undergoing coronary artery bypass surgery were available from 2001 patients who were operated at our institution. Transfusion of any blood product (relative risk = 1.678, 95% confidence interval = 1.087-2.590) was an independent predictor of all-cause mortality. The additive effect of each blood product on all-cause mortality (relative risk = 1.401, 95% confidence interval = 1.203-1.630) and cardiac mortality (relative risk = 1.553, 95% confidence interval = 1.273-1.895) was evident when the sum of each blood product was included in the regression models. However, when single blood products were included in the regression model, transfusion of fresh frozen plasma/Octaplas® was the only blood product associated with increased risk of all-cause mortality (relative risk = 1.692, 95% confidence interval = 1.222-2.344) and cardiac mortality (relative risk = 2.125, 95% confidence interval = 1.414-3.194). The effect of blood product transfusion was particularly evident during the first three postoperative months. Since follow-up was truncated at 3 months, transfusion of any blood product was a significant predictor of all-cause mortality (relative risk = 2.998, 95% confidence interval = 1.053-0.537). Analysis of patients who survived or had at least 3 months of potential follow-up showed that transfusion of any blood product was not associated with a significantly increased risk of intermediate all-cause mortality (relative risk = 1.430, 95% confidence interval = 0.880-2.323). Transfusion of any blood product is associated with a significant risk of all-cause and cardiac mortality after coronary artery bypass surgery. Such a risk seems to be limited to the early postoperative period and diminishes later on. Among blood products, perioperative use of fresh frozen plasma or Octaplas seems to be the main determinant of mortality.

Rapid Contour-based Segmentation for 18F-FDG PET Imaging of Lung Tumors by Using ITK-SNAP: Comparison to Expert-based Segmentation.

PubMed

Besson, Florent L; Henry, Théophraste; Meyer, Céline; Chevance, Virgile; Roblot, Victoire; Blanchet, Elise; Arnould, Victor; Grimon, Gilles; Chekroun, Malika; Mabille, Laurence; Parent, Florence; Seferian, Andrei; Bulifon, Sophie; Montani, David; Humbert, Marc; Chaumet-Riffaud, Philippe; Lebon, Vincent; Durand, Emmanuel

2018-04-03

Purpose To assess the performance of the ITK-SNAP software for fluorodeoxyglucose (FDG) positron emission tomography (PET) segmentation of complex-shaped lung tumors compared with an optimized, expert-based manual reference standard. Materials and Methods Seventy-six FDG PET images of thoracic lesions were retrospectively segmented by using ITK-SNAP software. Each tumor was manually segmented by six raters to generate an optimized reference standard by using the simultaneous truth and performance level estimate algorithm. Four raters segmented 76 FDG PET images of lung tumors twice by using ITK-SNAP active contour algorithm. Accuracy of ITK-SNAP procedure was assessed by using Dice coefficient and Hausdorff metric. Interrater and intrarater reliability were estimated by using intraclass correlation coefficients of output volumes. Finally, the ITK-SNAP procedure was compared with currently recommended PET tumor delineation methods on the basis of thresholding at 41% volume of interest (VOI; VOI 41 ) and 50% VOI (VOI 50 ) of the tumor's maximal metabolism intensity. Results Accuracy estimates for the ITK-SNAP procedure indicated a Dice coefficient of 0.83 (95% confidence interval: 0.77, 0.89) and a Hausdorff distance of 12.6 mm (95% confidence interval: 9.82, 15.32). Interrater reliability was an intraclass correlation coefficient of 0.94 (95% confidence interval: 0.91, 0.96). The intrarater reliabilities were intraclass correlation coefficients above 0.97. Finally, VOI 41 and VOI 50 accuracy metrics were as follows: Dice coefficient, 0.48 (95% confidence interval: 0.44, 0.51) and 0.34 (95% confidence interval: 0.30, 0.38), respectively, and Hausdorff distance, 25.6 mm (95% confidence interval: 21.7, 31.4) and 31.3 mm (95% confidence interval: 26.8, 38.4), respectively. Conclusion ITK-SNAP is accurate and reliable for active-contour-based segmentation of heterogeneous thoracic PET tumors. ITK-SNAP surpassed the recommended PET methods compared with ground truth manual segmentation. © RSNA, 2018.

Amnioinfusion for meconium-stained liquor in labour.

PubMed

Hofmeyr, G J

2000-01-01

Amnioinfusion aims to prevent or relieve umbilical cord compression during labour by infusing a solution into the uterine cavity. It is also thought to dilute meconium when present in the amniotic fluid and so reduce the risk of meconium aspiration. However it may be that the mechanism of effect is that it corrects oligohydramnios (reduced amniotic fluid), for which thick meconium staining is a marker. The objective of this review was to assess the effects of amnioinfusion for meconium-stained liquor on perinatal outcome. The Cochrane Pregnancy and Childbirth Group trials register and the Cochrane Controlled Trials Register were searched. Randomised trials comparing amnioinfusion with no amnioinfusion for women in labour with moderate or thick meconium-staining of the amniotic fluid. Eligibility and trial quality were assessed by one reviewer. Ten studies, most involving small numbers of participants, were included. Under standard perinatal surveillance, amnioinfusion was associated with a reduction in the following: heavy meconium staining of the liquor (relative risk 0.03, 95% confidence interval 0.01 to 0.15); variable fetal heart rate deceleration (relative risk 0.47, 95% confidence interval 0.24 to 0. 90); and a trend to reduced caesarean section overall (relative risk 0.83, 95% confidence interval 0.69 to 1.00). No perinatal deaths were reported. Under limited perinatal surveillance, amnioinfusion was associated with a reduction in the following: meconium aspiration syndrome (relative risk 0.24, 95% confidence interval 0. 12 to 0.48); neonatal hypoxic ischaemic encephalopathy (relative risk 0.07, 95% confidence interval 0.01 to 0.56) and neonatal ventilation or intensive care unit admission (relative risk 0.56, 95% confidence interval 0.39 to 0.79); there was a trend towards reduced perinatal mortality (relative risk 0.34, 95% confidence interval 0.11 to 1.06). Amnioinfusion is associated with improvements in perinatal outcome, particularly in settings where facilities for perinatal surveillance are limited. The trials reviewed are too small to address the possibility of rare but serious maternal adverse effects of amnioinfusion.

Amnioinfusion for meconium-stained liquor in labour.

PubMed

Hofmeyr, G J

2002-01-01

Amnioinfusion aims to prevent or relieve umbilical cord compression during labour by infusing a solution into the uterine cavity. It is also thought to dilute meconium when present in the amniotic fluid and so reduce the risk of meconium aspiration. However, it may be that the mechanism of effect is that it corrects oligohydramnios (reduced amniotic fluid), for which thick meconium staining is a marker. The objective of this review was to assess the effects of amnioinfusion for meconium-stained liquor on perinatal outcome. The Cochrane Pregnancy and Childbirth Group trials register (October 2001) and the Cochrane Controlled Trials Register (Issue 3, 2001) were searched. Randomised trials comparing amnioinfusion with no amnioinfusion for women in labour with moderate or thick meconium-staining of the amniotic fluid. Eligibility and trial quality were assessed by one reviewer. Twelve studies, most involving small numbers of participants, were included. Under standard perinatal surveillance, amnioinfusion was associated with a reduction in the following: heavy meconium staining of the liquor (relative risk 0.03, 95% confidence interval 0.01 to 0.15); variable fetal heart rate deceleration (relative risk 0.65, 95% confidence interval 0.49 to 0.88); and reduced caesarean section overall (relative risk 0.82, 95% confidence interval 0.69 to 1.97). No perinatal deaths were reported. Under limited perinatal surveillance, amnioinfusion was associated with a reduction in the following: meconium aspiration syndrome (relative risk 0.24, 95% confidence interval 0.12 to 0.48); neonatal hypoxic ischaemic encephalopathy (relative risk 0.07, 95% confidence interval 0.01 to 0.56) and neonatal ventilation or intensive care unit admission (relative risk 0.56, 95% confidence interval 0.39 to 0.79); there was a trend towards reduced perinatal mortality (relative risk 0.34, 95% confidence interval 0.11 to 1.06). Amnioinfusion is associated with improvements in perinatal outcome, particularly in settings where facilities for perinatal surveillance are limited. The trials reviewed are too small to address the possibility of rare but serious maternal adverse effects of amnioinfusion.

Quantitative imaging biomarkers: Effect of sample size and bias on confidence interval coverage.

PubMed

Obuchowski, Nancy A; Bullen, Jennifer

2017-01-01

Introduction Quantitative imaging biomarkers (QIBs) are being increasingly used in medical practice and clinical trials. An essential first step in the adoption of a quantitative imaging biomarker is the characterization of its technical performance, i.e. precision and bias, through one or more performance studies. Then, given the technical performance, a confidence interval for a new patient's true biomarker value can be constructed. Estimating bias and precision can be problematic because rarely are both estimated in the same study, precision studies are usually quite small, and bias cannot be measured when there is no reference standard. Methods A Monte Carlo simulation study was conducted to assess factors affecting nominal coverage of confidence intervals for a new patient's quantitative imaging biomarker measurement and for change in the quantitative imaging biomarker over time. Factors considered include sample size for estimating bias and precision, effect of fixed and non-proportional bias, clustered data, and absence of a reference standard. Results Technical performance studies of a quantitative imaging biomarker should include at least 35 test-retest subjects to estimate precision and 65 cases to estimate bias. Confidence intervals for a new patient's quantitative imaging biomarker measurement constructed under the no-bias assumption provide nominal coverage as long as the fixed bias is <12%. For confidence intervals of the true change over time, linearity must hold and the slope of the regression of the measurements vs. true values should be between 0.95 and 1.05. The regression slope can be assessed adequately as long as fixed multiples of the measurand can be generated. Even small non-proportional bias greatly reduces confidence interval coverage. Multiple lesions in the same subject can be treated as independent when estimating precision. Conclusion Technical performance studies of quantitative imaging biomarkers require moderate sample sizes in order to provide robust estimates of bias and precision for constructing confidence intervals for new patients. Assumptions of linearity and non-proportional bias should be assessed thoroughly.

Association between GFR Estimated by Multiple Methods at Dialysis Commencement and Patient Survival

PubMed Central

Wong, Muh Geot; Pollock, Carol A.; Cooper, Bruce A.; Branley, Pauline; Collins, John F.; Craig, Jonathan C.; Kesselhut, Joan; Luxton, Grant; Pilmore, Andrew; Harris, David C.

2014-01-01

Summary Background and objectives The Initiating Dialysis Early and Late study showed that planned early or late initiation of dialysis, based on the Cockcroft and Gault estimation of GFR, was associated with identical clinical outcomes. This study examined the association of all-cause mortality with estimated GFR at dialysis commencement, which was determined using multiple formulas. Design, setting, participants, & measurements Initiating Dialysis Early and Late trial participants were stratified into tertiles according to the estimated GFR measured by Cockcroft and Gault, Modification of Diet in Renal Disease, or Chronic Kidney Disease-Epidemiology Collaboration formula at dialysis commencement. Patient survival was determined using multivariable Cox proportional hazards model regression. Results Only Initiating Dialysis Early and Late trial participants who commenced on dialysis were included in this study (n=768). A total of 275 patients died during the study. After adjustment for age, sex, racial origin, body mass index, diabetes, and cardiovascular disease, no significant differences in survival were observed between estimated GFR tertiles determined by Cockcroft and Gault (lowest tertile adjusted hazard ratio, 1.11; 95% confidence interval, 0.82 to 1.49; middle tertile hazard ratio, 1.29; 95% confidence interval, 0.96 to 1.74; highest tertile reference), Modification of Diet in Renal Disease (lowest tertile hazard ratio, 0.88; 95% confidence interval, 0.63 to 1.24; middle tertile hazard ratio, 1.20; 95% confidence interval, 0.90 to 1.61; highest tertile reference), and Chronic Kidney Disease-Epidemiology Collaboration equations (lowest tertile hazard ratio, 0.93; 95% confidence interval, 0.67 to 1.27; middle tertile hazard ratio, 1.15; 95% confidence interval, 0.86 to 1.54; highest tertile reference). Conclusion Estimated GFR at dialysis commencement was not significantly associated with patient survival, regardless of the formula used. However, a clinically important association cannot be excluded, because observed confidence intervals were wide. PMID:24178976

Arabic cross cultural adaptation and validation of the National Institutes of Health Stroke Scale.

PubMed

Hussein, Haitham M; Abdel Moneim, Amr; Emara, Tamer; Abd-Elhamid, Yousry A; Salem, Haitham H; Abd-Allah, Foad; Farrag, Mohammad A; Tork, M Amir; Shalash, Ali S; Ezz El Dein, Khaled H; Osman, Gamaleldin; Georgy, Shady S; Ghali, Peter G; Lyden, Patrick D; Moustafa, Ramez R

2015-10-15

The National Institutes of Health Stroke Scale (NIHSS), the most commonly used tool to quantify neurological deficit in acute stroke, was initially developed in English. We present our experience in developing and validating an Arabic version of the NIHSS (arNIHSS). In 6months, 137 patients were recruited (mean age±standard deviation 62±12years; 48 women). For interrater agreement, weighted kappa value ranged from 0.36 to 0.66 and intraclass correlation coefficient (ICC) for the whole scale was excellent at 0.95 (95% confidence interval [CI] 0.94-0.97). For intrarater agreement, weighted kappa ranged from 0.52 to 1.0 and the ICC was 0.94 (95% CI 0.87-0.98). The construct validity of the arNIHSS is demonstrated by its correlation with the DWI-ASPECT and the 3months mRS score (Spearman correlation -0.46 and 0.58 respectively; P<0.001 for both). We developed and validated a culturally adapted Arabic version of the NIHSS. Further validation in other Arab countries is recommended. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Reliability of the AMA Guides to the Evaluation of Permanent Impairment.

PubMed

Forst, Linda; Friedman, Lee; Chukwu, Abraham

2010-12-01

AMA's Guides to the Evaluation of Permanent Impairment is used to rate loss of function and determine compensation and ability to work after injury or illness; however, there are few studies that evaluate reliability or construct validity. To evaluate the reliability of the fifth and sixth editions for back injury; to determine best methods for further study. Intra-class correlation coefficients within and between raters were relatively high. There was wider variability for individual cases. Impairment ratings were lower and correlated less well for the sixth edition, though confidence intervals overlapped. The sixth edition may not be an improvement over the fifth. A research agenda should include investigations of reliability and construct validity for different body sites and organ systems along the entire rating scale and among different categories of raters.

VizieR Online Data Catalog: Fermi/GBM GRB time-resolved spectral catalog (Yu+, 2016)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yu, H.-F.; Preece, R. D.; Greiner, J.; Bhat, P. N.; Bissaldi, E.; Briggs, M. S.; Cleveland, W. H.; Connaughton, V.; Goldstein, A.; von Kienlin; A.; Kouveliotou, C.; Mailyan, B.; Meegan, C. A.; Paciesas, W. S.; Rau, A.; Roberts, O. J.; Veres, P.; Wilson-Hodge, C.; Zhang, B.-B.; van Eerten, H. J.

2016-01-01

Time-resolved spectral analysis results of BEST models: for each spectrum GRB name using the Fermi GBM trigger designation, spectrum number within individual burst, start time Tstart and end time Tstop for the time bin, BEST model, best-fit parameters of the BEST model, value of CSTAT per degrees of freedom, 10keV-1MeV photon and energy flux are given. Ep evolutionary trends: for each burst GRB name, number of spectra with Ep, Spearman's Rank Correlation Coefficients between Ep_ and photon flux and 90%, 95%, and 99% confidence intervals, Spearman's Rank Correlation Coefficients between Ep and energy flux and 90%, 95%, and 99% confidence intervals, Spearman's Rank Correlation Coefficient between Ep and time and 90%, 95%, and 99% confidence intervals, trends as determined by computer for 90%, 95%, and 99% confidence intervals, trends as determined by human eyes are given. (2 data files).

Intervals for posttest probabilities: a comparison of 5 methods.

PubMed

Mossman, D; Berger, J O

2001-01-01

Several medical articles discuss methods of constructing confidence intervals for single proportions and the likelihood ratio, but scant attention has been given to the systematic study of intervals for the posterior odds, or the positive predictive value, of a test. The authors describe 5 methods of constructing confidence intervals for posttest probabilities when estimates of sensitivity, specificity, and the pretest probability of a disorder are derived from empirical data. They then evaluate each method to determine how well the intervals' coverage properties correspond to their nominal value. When the estimates of pretest probabilities, sensitivity, and specificity are derived from more than 80 subjects and are not close to 0 or 1, all methods generate intervals with appropriate coverage properties. When these conditions are not met, however, the best-performing method is an objective Bayesian approach implemented by a simple simulation using a spreadsheet. Physicians and investigators can generate accurate confidence intervals for posttest probabilities in small-sample situations using the objective Bayesian approach.

Pregnancy and birth outcomes in couples with infertility with and without assisted reproductive technology: with an emphasis on US population-based studies.

PubMed

Luke, Barbara

2017-09-01

Infertility, defined as the inability to conceive within 1 year of unprotected intercourse, affects an estimated 80 million individuals worldwide, or 10-15% of couples of reproductive age. Assisted reproductive technology includes all infertility treatments to achieve conception; in vitro fertilization is the process by which an oocyte is fertilized by semen outside the body; non-in vitro fertilization assisted reproductive technology treatments include ovulation induction, artificial insemination, and intrauterine insemination. Use of assisted reproductive technology has risen steadily in the United States during the past 2 decades due to several reasons, including childbearing at older maternal ages and increasing insurance coverage. The number of in vitro fertilization cycles in the United States has nearly doubled from 2000 through 2013 and currently 1.7% of all live births in the United States are the result of this technology. Since the birth of the first child from in vitro fertilization >35 years ago, >5 million babies have been born from in vitro fertilization, half within the past 6 years. It is estimated that 1% of singletons, 19% of twins, and 25% of triplet or higher multiples are due to in vitro fertilization, and 4%, 21%, and 52%, respectively, are due to non-in vitro fertilization assisted reproductive technology. Higher plurality at birth results in a >10-fold increase in the risks for prematurity and low birthweight in twins vs singletons (adjusted odds ratio, 11.84; 95% confidence interval, 10.56-13.27 and adjusted odds ratio, 10.68; 95% confidence interval, 9.45-12.08, respectively). The use of donor oocytes is associated with increased risks for pregnancy-induced hypertension (adjusted odds ratio, 1.43; 95% confidence interval, 1.14-1.78) and prematurity (adjusted odds ratio, 1.43; 95% confidence interval, 1.11-1.83). The use of thawed embryos is associated with higher risks for pregnancy-induced hypertension (adjusted odds ratio, 1.30; 95% confidence interval, 1.08-1.57) and large-for-gestation birthweight (adjusted odds ratio, 1.74; 95% confidence interval, 1.45-2.08). Among singletons, in vitro fertilization is associated with increased risk of severe maternal morbidity compared with fertile deliveries (vaginal: adjusted odds ratio, 2.27; 95% confidence interval, 1.78-2.88; cesarean: adjusted odds ratio, 1.67; 95% confidence interval, 1.40-1.98, respectively) and subfertile deliveries (vaginal: adjusted odds ratio, 1.97; 95% confidence interval, 1.30-3.00; cesarean: adjusted odds ratio, 1.75; 95% confidence interval, 1.30-2.35, respectively). Among twins, cesarean in vitro fertilization deliveries have significantly greater severe maternal morbidity compared to cesarean fertile deliveries (adjusted odds ratio, 1.48; 95% confidence interval, 1.14-1.93). Subfertility, with or without in vitro fertilization or non-in vitro fertilization infertility treatments to achieve a pregnancy, is associated with increased risks of adverse maternal and perinatal outcomes. The major risk from in vitro fertilization treatments of multiple births (and the associated excess of perinatal morbidity) has been reduced over time, with fewer and better-quality embryos being transferred. Copyright © 2017. Published by Elsevier Inc.

Family environment, hobbies and habits as psychosocial predictors of survival for surgically treated patients with breast cancer.

PubMed

Tominaga, K; Andow, J; Koyama, Y; Numao, S; Kurokawa, E; Ojima, M; Nagai, M

1998-01-01

Many psychosocial factors have been reported to influence the duration of survival of breast cancer patients. We have studied how family members, hobbies and habits of the patients may alter their psychosocial status. Female patients with surgically treated breast cancer diagnosed between 1986 and 1995 at the Tochigi Cancer Center Hospital, who provided information on the above-mentioned factors, were used. Their subsequent physical status was followed up in the outpatients clinic. The Cox regression model was used to evaluate the relationship between the results of the factors examined and the duration of the patients' survival, adjusting for the patients' age, stage of disease at diagnosis and curability, as judged by the physician in charge after the treatment. The following factors were revealed to be significant with regard to the survival of surgically treated breast cancer patients: being a widow (hazard ratio 3.29; 95% confidence interval 1.32-8.20), having a hobby (hazard ratio 0.43; 95% confidence interval 0.23-0.82), number of hobbies (hazard ratio 0.64; 95% confidence interval 0.41-1.00), number of female children (hazard ratio 0.64; 95% confidence interval 0.42-0.98), smoker (hazard ratio 2.08; 95% confidence interval 1.02-4.26) and alcohol consumption (hazard ratio 0.10; 95% confidence interval 0.01-0.72). These results suggest that psychosocial factors, including the family environment, where patients receive emotional support from their spouse and children, hobbies and the patients' habits, may influence the duration of survival in surgically treated breast cancer patients.

Vaccination Confidence and Parental Refusal/Delay of Early Childhood Vaccines.

PubMed

Gilkey, Melissa B; McRee, Annie-Laurie; Magnus, Brooke E; Reiter, Paul L; Dempsey, Amanda F; Brewer, Noel T

2016-01-01

To support efforts to address parental hesitancy towards early childhood vaccination, we sought to validate the Vaccination Confidence Scale using data from a large, population-based sample of U.S. parents. We used weighted data from 9,354 parents who completed the 2011 National Immunization Survey. Parents reported on the immunization history of a 19- to 35-month-old child in their households. Healthcare providers then verified children's vaccination status for vaccines including measles, mumps, and rubella (MMR), varicella, and seasonal flu. We used separate multivariable logistic regression models to assess associations between parents' mean scores on the 8-item Vaccination Confidence Scale and vaccine refusal, vaccine delay, and vaccination status. A substantial minority of parents reported a history of vaccine refusal (15%) or delay (27%). Vaccination confidence was negatively associated with refusal of any vaccine (odds ratio [OR] = 0.58, 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.54-0.63) as well as refusal of MMR, varicella, and flu vaccines specifically. Negative associations between vaccination confidence and measures of vaccine delay were more moderate, including delay of any vaccine (OR = 0.81, 95% CI, 0.76-0.86). Vaccination confidence was positively associated with having received vaccines, including MMR (OR = 1.53, 95% CI, 1.40-1.68), varicella (OR = 1.54, 95% CI, 1.42-1.66), and flu vaccines (OR = 1.32, 95% CI, 1.23-1.42). Vaccination confidence was consistently associated with early childhood vaccination behavior across multiple vaccine types. Our findings support expanding the application of the Vaccination Confidence Scale to measure vaccination beliefs among parents of young children.

Previous treatment, sputum-smear nonconversion, and suburban living: The risk factors of multidrug-resistant tuberculosis among Malaysians.

PubMed

Mohd Shariff, Noorsuzana; Shah, Shamsul Azhar; Kamaludin, Fadzilah

2016-03-01

The number of multidrug-resistant tuberculosis patients is increasing each year in many countries all around the globe. Malaysia has no exception in facing this burdensome health problem. We aimed to investigate the factors that contribute to the occurrence of multidrug-resistant tuberculosis among Malaysian tuberculosis patients. An unmatched case-control study was conducted among tuberculosis patients who received antituberculosis treatments from April 2013 until April 2014. Cases are those diagnosed as pulmonary tuberculosis patients clinically, radiologically, and/or bacteriologically, and who were confirmed to be resistant to both isoniazid and rifampicin through drug-sensitivity testing. On the other hand, pulmonary tuberculosis patients who were sensitive to all first-line antituberculosis drugs and were treated during the same time period served as controls. A total of 150 tuberculosis patients were studied, of which the susceptible cases were 120. Factors found to be significantly associated with the occurrence of multidrug-resistant tuberculosis are being Indian or Chinese (odds ratio 3.17, 95% confidence interval 1.04-9.68; and odds ratio 6.23, 95% confidence interval 2.24-17.35, respectively), unmarried (odds ratio 2.58, 95% confidence interval 1.09-6.09), living in suburban areas (odds ratio 2.58, 95% confidence interval 1.08-6.19), are noncompliant (odds ratio 4.50, 95% confidence interval 1.71-11.82), were treated previously (odds ratio 8.91, 95% confidence interval 3.66-21.67), and showed positive sputum smears at the 2nd (odds ratio 7.00, 95% confidence interval 2.46-19.89) and 6th months of treatment (odds ratio 17.96, 95% confidence interval 3.51-91.99). Living in suburban areas, positive sputum smears in the 2nd month of treatment, and was treated previously are factors that independently contribute to the occurrence of multidrug-resistant tuberculosis. Those with positive smears in the second month of treatment, have a history of previous treatment, and live in suburban areas are found to have a higher probability of becoming multidrug resistant. The results presented here may facilitate improvements in the screening and detection process of drug-resistant patients in Malaysia in the future. Copyright © 2015 Asian-African Society for Mycobacteriology. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Five-year outcomes in patients with left main disease treated with either percutaneous coronary intervention or coronary artery bypass grafting in the synergy between percutaneous coronary intervention with taxus and cardiac surgery trial.

PubMed

Morice, Marie-Claude; Serruys, Patrick W; Kappetein, A Pieter; Feldman, Ted E; Ståhle, Elisabeth; Colombo, Antonio; Mack, Michael J; Holmes, David R; Choi, James W; Ruzyllo, Witold; Religa, Grzegorz; Huang, Jian; Roy, Kristine; Dawkins, Keith D; Mohr, Friedrich

2014-06-10

Current guidelines recommend coronary artery bypass graft surgery (CABG) when treating significant de novo left main coronary artery (LM) stenosis; however, percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI) has a class IIa indication for unprotected LM disease in selected patients. This analysis compares 5-year clinical outcomes in PCI- and CABG-treated LM patients in the Synergy Between PCI With Taxus and Cardiac Surgery (SYNTAX) trial, the largest trial in this group to date. The SYNTAX trial randomly assigned 1800 patients with LM or 3-vessel disease to receive either PCI (with TAXUS Express paclitaxel-eluting stents) or CABG. The unprotected LM cohort (N=705) was predefined and powered. Major adverse cardiac and cerebrovascular event rates at 5 years was 36.9% in PCI patients and 31.0% in CABG patients (hazard ratio, 1.23 [95% confidence interval, 0.95-1.59]; P=0.12). Mortality rate was 12.8% and 14.6% in PCI and CABG patients, respectively (hazard ratio, 0.88 [95% confidence interval, 0.58-1.32]; P=0.53). Stroke was significantly increased in the CABG group (PCI 1.5% versus CABG 4.3%; hazard ratio, 0.33 [95% confidence interval, 0.12-0.92]; P=0.03) and repeat revascularization in the PCI arm (26.7% versus 15.5%; hazard ratio, 1.82 [95% confidence interval, 1.28-2.57]; P<0.01). Major adverse cardiac and cerebrovascular events were similar between arms in patients with low/intermediate SYNTAX scores but significantly increased in PCI patients with high scores (≥33). At 5 years, no difference in overall major adverse cardiac and cerebrovascular events was found between treatment groups. PCI-treated patients had a lower stroke but a higher revascularization rate versus CABG. These results suggest that both treatments are valid options for LM patients. The extent of disease should accounted for when choosing between surgery and PCI, because patients with high SYNTAX scores seem to benefit more from surgery compared with those in the lower tertiles. http://www.clinicaltrials.gov. Unique identifier: NCT00114972. © 2014 American Heart Association, Inc.

Trial Sequential Analysis in systematic reviews with meta-analysis.

PubMed

Wetterslev, Jørn; Jakobsen, Janus Christian; Gluud, Christian

2017-03-06

Most meta-analyses in systematic reviews, including Cochrane ones, do not have sufficient statistical power to detect or refute even large intervention effects. This is why a meta-analysis ought to be regarded as an interim analysis on its way towards a required information size. The results of the meta-analyses should relate the total number of randomised participants to the estimated required meta-analytic information size accounting for statistical diversity. When the number of participants and the corresponding number of trials in a meta-analysis are insufficient, the use of the traditional 95% confidence interval or the 5% statistical significance threshold will lead to too many false positive conclusions (type I errors) and too many false negative conclusions (type II errors). We developed a methodology for interpreting meta-analysis results, using generally accepted, valid evidence on how to adjust thresholds for significance in randomised clinical trials when the required sample size has not been reached. The Lan-DeMets trial sequential monitoring boundaries in Trial Sequential Analysis offer adjusted confidence intervals and restricted thresholds for statistical significance when the diversity-adjusted required information size and the corresponding number of required trials for the meta-analysis have not been reached. Trial Sequential Analysis provides a frequentistic approach to control both type I and type II errors. We define the required information size and the corresponding number of required trials in a meta-analysis and the diversity (D 2 ) measure of heterogeneity. We explain the reasons for using Trial Sequential Analysis of meta-analysis when the actual information size fails to reach the required information size. We present examples drawn from traditional meta-analyses using unadjusted naïve 95% confidence intervals and 5% thresholds for statistical significance. Spurious conclusions in systematic reviews with traditional meta-analyses can be reduced using Trial Sequential Analysis. Several empirical studies have demonstrated that the Trial Sequential Analysis provides better control of type I errors and of type II errors than the traditional naïve meta-analysis. Trial Sequential Analysis represents analysis of meta-analytic data, with transparent assumptions, and better control of type I and type II errors than the traditional meta-analysis using naïve unadjusted confidence intervals.

Validation of a Delirium Risk Assessment Using Electronic Medical Record Information.

PubMed

Rudolph, James L; Doherty, Kelly; Kelly, Brittany; Driver, Jane A; Archambault, Elizabeth

2016-03-01

Identifying patients at risk for delirium allows prompt application of prevention, diagnostic, and treatment strategies; but is rarely done. Once delirium develops, patients are more likely to need posthospitalization skilled care. This study developed an a priori electronic prediction rule using independent risk factors identified in a National Center of Clinical Excellence meta-analysis and validated the ability to predict delirium in 2 cohorts. Retrospective analysis followed by prospective validation. Tertiary VA Hospital in New England. A total of 27,625 medical records of hospitalized patients and 246 prospectively enrolled patients admitted to the hospital. The electronic delirium risk prediction rule was created using data obtained from the patient electronic medical record (EMR). The primary outcome, delirium, was identified 2 ways: (1) from the EMR (retrospective cohort) and (2) clinical assessment on enrollment and daily thereafter (prospective participants). We assessed discrimination of the delirium prediction rule with the C-statistic. Secondary outcomes were length of stay and discharge to rehabilitation. Retrospectively, delirium was identified in 8% of medical records (n = 2343); prospectively, delirium during hospitalization was present in 26% of participants (n = 64). In the retrospective cohort, medical record delirium was identified in 2%, 3%, 11%, and 38% of the low, intermediate, high, and very high-risk groups, respectively (C-statistic = 0.81; 95% confidence interval 0.80-0.82). Prospectively, the electronic prediction rule identified delirium in 15%, 18%, 31%, and 55% of these groups (C-statistic = 0.69; 95% confidence interval 0.61-0.77). Compared with low-risk patients, those at high- or very high delirium risk had increased length of stay (5.7 ± 5.6 vs 3.7 ± 2.7 days; P = .001) and higher rates of discharge to rehabilitation (8.9% vs 20.8%; P = .02). Automatic calculation of delirium risk using an EMR algorithm identifies patients at risk for delirium, which creates a critical opportunity for gaining clinical efficiencies and improving delirium identification, including those needing skilled care. Published by Elsevier Inc.

Prediction of First Cardiovascular Disease Event in Type 1 Diabetes Mellitus: The Steno Type 1 Risk Engine.

PubMed

Vistisen, Dorte; Andersen, Gregers Stig; Hansen, Christian Stevns; Hulman, Adam; Henriksen, Jan Erik; Bech-Nielsen, Henning; Jørgensen, Marit Eika

2016-03-15

Patients with type 1 diabetes mellitus are at increased risk of developing cardiovascular disease (CVD), but they are currently undertreated. There are no risk scores used on a regular basis in clinical practice for assessing the risk of CVD in type 1 diabetes mellitus. From 4306 clinically diagnosed adult patients with type 1 diabetes mellitus, we developed a prediction model for estimating the risk of first fatal or nonfatal CVD event (ischemic heart disease, ischemic stroke, heart failure, and peripheral artery disease). Detailed clinical data including lifestyle factors were linked to event data from validated national registers. The risk prediction model was developed by using a 2-stage approach. First, a nonparametric, data-driven approach was used to identify potentially informative risk factors and interactions (random forest and survival tree analysis). Second, based on results from the first step, Poisson regression analysis was used to derive the final model. The final CVD prediction model was externally validated in a different population of 2119 patients with type 1 diabetes mellitus. During a median follow-up of 6.8 years (interquartile range, 2.9-10.9) a total of 793 (18.4%) patients developed CVD. The final prediction model included age, sex, diabetes duration, systolic blood pressure, low-density lipoprotein cholesterol, hemoglobin A1c, albuminuria, glomerular filtration rate, smoking, and exercise. Discrimination was excellent for a 5-year CVD event with a C-statistic of 0.826 (95% confidence interval, 0.807-0.845) in the derivation data and a C-statistic of 0.803 (95% confidence interval, 0.767-0.839) in the validation data. The Hosmer-Lemeshow test showed good calibration (P>0.05) in both cohorts. This high-performing CVD risk model allows for the implementation of decision rules in a clinical setting. © 2016 American Heart Association, Inc.

Education Research: Bias and poor interrater reliability in evaluating the neurology clinical skills examination

PubMed Central

Schuh, L A.; London, Z; Neel, R; Brock, C; Kissela, B M.; Schultz, L; Gelb, D J.

2009-01-01

Objective: The American Board of Psychiatry and Neurology (ABPN) has recently replaced the traditional, centralized oral examination with the locally administered Neurology Clinical Skills Examination (NEX). The ABPN postulated the experience with the NEX would be similar to the Mini-Clinical Evaluation Exercise, a reliable and valid assessment tool. The reliability and validity of the NEX has not been established. Methods: NEX encounters were videotaped at 4 neurology programs. Local faculty and ABPN examiners graded the encounters using 2 different evaluation forms: an ABPN form and one with a contracted rating scale. Some NEX encounters were purposely failed by residents. Cohen’s kappa and intraclass correlation coefficients (ICC) were calculated for local vs ABPN examiners. Results: Ninety-eight videotaped NEX encounters of 32 residents were evaluated by 20 local faculty evaluators and 18 ABPN examiners. The interrater reliability for a determination of pass vs fail for each encounter was poor (kappa 0.32; 95% confidence interval [CI] = 0.11, 0.53). ICC between local faculty and ABPN examiners for each performance rating on the ABPN NEX form was poor to moderate (ICC range 0.14-0.44), and did not improve with the contracted rating form (ICC range 0.09-0.36). ABPN examiners were more likely than local examiners to fail residents. Conclusions: There is poor interrater reliability between local faculty and American Board of Psychiatry and Neurology examiners. A bias was detected for favorable assessment locally, which is concerning for the validity of the examination. Further study is needed to assess whether training can improve interrater reliability and offset bias. GLOSSARY ABIM = American Board of Internal Medicine; ABPN = American Board of Psychiatry and Neurology; CI = confidence interval; HFH = Henry Ford Hospital; ICC = intraclass correlation coefficients; IM = internal medicine; mini-CEX = Mini-Clinical Evaluation Exercise; NEX = Neurology Clinical Skills Examination; RITE = residency inservice training examination; UC = University of Cincinnati; UM = University of Michigan; USF = University of South Florida. PMID:19605769

Iatrogenic Bone and Soft Tissue Trauma in Robotic-Arm Assisted Total Knee Arthroplasty Compared With Conventional Jig-Based Total Knee Arthroplasty: A Prospective Cohort Study and Validation of a New Classification System.

PubMed

Kayani, Babar; Konan, Sujith; Pietrzak, Jurek R T; Haddad, Fares S

2018-03-27

The objective of this study was to compare macroscopic bone and soft tissue injury between robotic-arm assisted total knee arthroplasty (RA-TKA) and conventional jig-based total knee arthroplasty (CJ-TKA) and create a validated classification system for reporting iatrogenic bone and periarticular soft tissue injury after TKA. This study included 30 consecutive CJ-TKAs followed by 30 consecutive RA-TKAs performed by a single surgeon. Intraoperative photographs of the femur, tibia, and periarticular soft tissues were taken before implantation of prostheses. Using these outcomes, the macroscopic soft tissue injury (MASTI) classification system was developed to grade iatrogenic bone and soft tissue injuries. Interobserver and Intraobserver validity of the proposed classification system was assessed. Patients undergoing RA-TKA had reduced medial soft tissue injury in both passively correctible (P < .05) and noncorrectible varus deformities (P < .05); more pristine femoral (P < .05) and tibial (P < .05) bone resection cuts; and improved MASTI scores compared to CJ-TKA (P < .05). There was high interobserver (intraclass correlation coefficient 0.92 [95% confidence interval: 0.88-0.96], P < .05) and intraobserver agreement (intraclass correlation coefficient 0.94 [95% confidence interval: 0.92-0.97], P < .05) of the proposed MASTI classification system. There is reduced bone and periarticular soft tissue injury in patients undergoing RA-TKA compared to CJ-TKA. The proposed MASTI classification system is a reproducible grading scheme for describing iatrogenic bone and soft tissue injury in TKA. RA-TKA is associated with reduced bone and soft tissue injury compared with conventional jig-based TKA. The proposed MASTI classification may facilitate further research correlating macroscopic soft tissue injury during TKA to long-term clinical and functional outcomes. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Translation and Initial Validation of the Chinese (Cantonese) Version of Community Integration Measure for Use in Patients with Chronic Stroke

PubMed Central

Ng, Shamay S. M.; Ng, Gabriel Y. F.

2014-01-01

Objectives. To (1) translate and culturally adapt the English version Community Integration Measure into Chinese (Cantonese), (2) report the results of initial validation of the Chinese (Cantonese) version of CIM (CIM-C) including the content validity, internal consistency, test-retest reliability, and factor structure of CIM-C for use in stroke survivors in a Chinese community setting, and (3) investigate the level of community integration of stroke survivors living in Hong Kong. Design. Cross-sectional study. Setting. University-based rehabilitation centre. Participants. 62 (n = 62) subjects with chronic stroke. Methods. The CIM-C was produced after forward-backward translation, expert panel review, and pretesting. 25 (n = 25) of the same subjects were reassessed after a 1-week interval. Results. The items of the CIM-C demonstrated high internal consistency with a Cronbach's α of 0.84. The CIM-C showed good test-retest reliability with an intraclass correlation coefficient (ICC) of 0.84 (95% confidence interval, 0.64–0.93). A 3-factor structure of the CIM-C including “relationship and engagement,” “sense of knowing,” and “independent living,” was consistent with the original theoretical model. Hong Kong stroke survivors revealed a high level of community integration as measured by the CIM-C (mean (SD): 43.48 (5.79)). Conclusions. The CIM-C is a valid and reliable measure for clinical use. PMID:24995317

Etiological classifications of transient ischemic attacks: subtype classification by TOAST, CCS and ASCO--a pilot study.

PubMed

Amort, Margareth; Fluri, Felix; Weisskopf, Florian; Gensicke, Henrik; Bonati, Leo H; Lyrer, Philippe A; Engelter, Stefan T

2012-01-01

In patients with transient ischemic attacks (TIA), etiological classification systems are not well studied. The Trial of ORG 10172 in Acute Stroke Treatment (TOAST), the Causative Classification System (CCS), and the Atherosclerosis Small Vessel Disease Cardiac Source Other Cause (ASCO) classification may be useful to determine the underlying etiology. We aimed at testing the feasibility of each of the 3 systems. Furthermore, we studied and compared their prognostic usefulness. In a single-center TIA registry prospectively ascertained over 2 years, we applied 3 etiological classification systems. We compared the distribution of underlying etiologies, the rates of patients with determined versus undetermined etiology, and studied whether etiological subtyping distinguished TIA patients with versus without subsequent stroke or TIA within 3 months. The 3 systems were applicable in all 248 patients. A determined etiology with the highest level of causality was assigned similarly often with TOAST (35.9%), CCS (34.3%), and ASCO (38.7%). However, the frequency of undetermined causes differed significantly between the classification systems and was lowest for ASCO (TOAST: 46.4%; CCS: 37.5%; ASCO: 18.5%; p < 0.001). In TOAST, CCS, and ASCO, cardioembolism (19.4/14.5/18.5%) was the most common etiology, followed by atherosclerosis (11.7/12.9/14.5%). At 3 months, 33 patients (13.3%, 95% confidence interval 9.3-18.2%) had recurrent cerebral ischemic events. These were strokes in 13 patients (5.2%; 95% confidence interval 2.8-8.8%) and TIAs in 20 patients (8.1%, 95% confidence interval 5.0-12.2%). Patients with a determined etiology (high level of causality) had higher rates of subsequent strokes than those without a determined etiology [TOAST: 6.7% (95% confidence interval 2.5-14.1%) vs. 4.4% (95% confidence interval 1.8-8.9%); CSS: 9.3% (95% confidence interval 4.1-17.5%) vs. 3.1% (95% confidence interval 1.0-7.1%); ASCO: 9.4% (95% confidence interval 4.4-17.1%) vs. 2.6% (95% confidence interval 0.7-6.6%)]. However, this difference was only significant in the ASCO classification (p = 0.036). Using ASCO, there was neither an increase in risk of subsequent stroke among patients with incomplete diagnostic workup (at least one subtype scored 9) compared with patients with adequate workup (no subtype scored 9), nor among patients with multiple causes compared with patients with a single cause. In TIA patients, all etiological classification systems provided a similar distribution of underlying etiologies. The increase in stroke risk in TIA patients with determined versus undetermined etiology was most evident using the ASCO classification. Copyright © 2012 S. Karger AG, Basel.

Likelihood-based confidence intervals for estimating floods with given return periods

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Martins, Eduardo Sávio P. R.; Clarke, Robin T.

1993-06-01

This paper discusses aspects of the calculation of likelihood-based confidence intervals for T-year floods, with particular reference to (1) the two-parameter gamma distribution; (2) the Gumbel distribution; (3) the two-parameter log-normal distribution, and other distributions related to the normal by Box-Cox transformations. Calculation of the confidence limits is straightforward using the Nelder-Mead algorithm with a constraint incorporated, although care is necessary to ensure convergence either of the Nelder-Mead algorithm, or of the Newton-Raphson calculation of maximum-likelihood estimates. Methods are illustrated using records from 18 gauging stations in the basin of the River Itajai-Acu, State of Santa Catarina, southern Brazil. A small and restricted simulation compared likelihood-based confidence limits with those given by use of the central limit theorem; for the same confidence probability, the confidence limits of the simulation were wider than those of the central limit theorem, which failed more frequently to contain the true quantile being estimated. The paper discusses possible applications of likelihood-based confidence intervals in other areas of hydrological analysis.

[Splash basins are contaminated even during operations in a laminar air flow environment].

PubMed

Christensen, Mikkel; Sundstrup, Mikkel; Larsen, Helle Raagaard; Olesen, Bente; Ryge, Camilla

2014-03-03

Few studies have investigated the potential contamination of splash basins and they have shown very divergent results: contamination ranging from 2.13% to 74% has been reported. This study set out to examine if splash basins used in a laminar air flow (LAF) environment during elective knee and hip arthroplasty constitute an unnecessary risk. Of the 49 cases sampled two cultures were positive (4%; 95% confidence interval = 0.49-13.9). We conclude that splash basins do get contaminated even in an LAF environment. Further studies with larger populations are needed to validate our findings.

A Power-Law Growth and Decay Model with Autocorrelation for Posting Data to Social Networking Services.

PubMed

Fujiyama, Toshifumi; Matsui, Chihiro; Takemura, Akimichi

2016-01-01

We propose a power-law growth and decay model for posting data to social networking services before and after social events. We model the time series structure of deviations from the power-law growth and decay with a conditional Poisson autoregressive (AR) model. Online postings related to social events are described by five parameters in the power-law growth and decay model, each of which characterizes different aspects of interest in the event. We assess the validity of parameter estimates in terms of confidence intervals, and compare various submodels based on likelihoods and information criteria.

The computation of Laplacian smoothing splines with examples

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Wendelberger, J. G.

1982-01-01

Laplacian smoothing splines (LSS) are presented as generalizations of graduation, cubic and thin plate splines. The method of generalized cross validation (GCV) to choose the smoothing parameter is described. The GCV is used in the algorithm for the computation of LSS's. An outline of a computer program which implements this algorithm is presented along with a description of the use of the program. Examples in one, two and three dimensions demonstrate how to obtain estimates of function values with confidence intervals and estimates of first and second derivatives. Probability plots are used as a diagnostic tool to check for model inadequacy.

Estimating the optimal dynamic antipsychotic treatment regime: Evidence from the sequential multiple assignment randomized CATIE Schizophrenia Study

PubMed Central

Shortreed, Susan M.; Moodie, Erica E. M.

2012-01-01

Summary Treatment of schizophrenia is notoriously difficult and typically requires personalized adaption of treatment due to lack of efficacy of treatment, poor adherence, or intolerable side effects. The Clinical Antipsychotic Trials in Intervention Effectiveness (CATIE) Schizophrenia Study is a sequential multiple assignment randomized trial comparing the typical antipsychotic medication, perphenazine, to several newer atypical antipsychotics. This paper describes the marginal structural modeling method for estimating optimal dynamic treatment regimes and applies the approach to the CATIE Schizophrenia Study. Missing data and valid estimation of confidence intervals are also addressed. PMID:23087488

Development and Validation of a Photonumeric Scale for Assessment of Chin Retrusion.

PubMed

Sykes, Jonathan M; Carruthers, Alastair; Hardas, Bhushan; Murphy, Diane K; Jones, Derek; Carruthers, Jean; Donofrio, Lisa; Creutz, Lela; Marx, Ann; Dill, Sara

2016-10-01

A validated scale is needed for objective and reproducible comparisons of chin appearance before and after chin augmentation in practice and clinical studies. To describe the development and validation of the 5-point photonumeric Allergan Chin Retrusion Scale. The Allergan Chin Retrusion Scale was developed to include an assessment guide, verbal descriptors, morphed images, and real subject images for each scale grade. The clinical significance of a 1-point score difference was evaluated in a review of multiple image pairs representing varying differences in severity. Interrater and intrarater reliability was evaluated in a live-subject validation study (N = 298) completed during 2 sessions occurring 3 weeks apart. A difference of ≥1 point on the scale was shown to reflect a clinically meaningful difference (mean [95% confidence interval] absolute score difference, 1.07 [0.94-1.20] for clinically different image pairs and 0.51 [0.39-0.63] for not clinically different pairs). Intrarater agreement between the 2 live-subject validation sessions was substantial (mean weighted kappa = 0.79). Interrater agreement was substantial during the second rating session (0.68, primary end point). The Allergan Chin Retrusion Scale is a validated and reliable scale for physician rating of severity of chin retrusion.

Some far-field acoustics characteristics of the XV-15 tilt-rotor aircraft

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Golub, Robert A.; Conner, David A.; Becker, Lawrence E.; Rutledge, C. Kendall; Smith, Rita A.

1990-01-01

Far-field acoustics tests have been conducted on an instrumented XV-15 tilt-rotor aircraft. The purpose of these acoustic measurements was to create an encompassing, high confidence (90 percent), and accurate (-1.4/ +1/8 dB theoretical confidence interval) far-field acoustics data base to validate ROTONET and other current rotorcraft noise prediction computer codes. This paper describes the flight techniques used, with emphasis on the care taken to obtain high-quality far-field acoustic data. The quality and extensiveness of the data base collected are shown by presentation of ground acoustic contours for level flyovers for the airplane flight mode and for several forward velocities and nacelle tilts for the transition mode and helicopter flight mode. Acoustic pressure time-histories and fully analyzed ensemble averaged far-field data results (spectra) are shown for each of the ground contour cases.

A thorough QT study to evaluate the QTc prolongation potential of two neuropsychiatric drugs, quetiapine and escitalopram, in healthy volunteers.

PubMed

Kim, Anhye; Lim, Kyoung Soo; Lee, Howard; Chung, Hyewon; Yoon, Seo Hyun; Yu, Kyung-Sang; Cho, Joo-Youn; Jang, In-Jin; Chung, Jae-Yong

2016-07-01

Prolongation of the QT interval on an ECG is a surrogate marker for predicting the proarrhythmic potential of a drug under development. The aim of this study was to evaluate the QTc prolongation potential of two neuropsychiatric drugs, quetiapine immediate release (IR) and escitalopram, in healthy individuals. This was a randomized, open-label, 4×4 Williams crossover study, with four single-dose treatments [placebo, 400 mg moxifloxacin (positive control), 20 mg escitalopram, and 100 mg quetiapine IR], conducted in 40 healthy volunteers. Serial blood samples for pharmacokinetics and ECG were collected. Individually, RR-corrected QTc intervals (QTcI) and placebo-adjusted changes from baseline values of QTcI (ΔΔQTcI) were evaluated. Lower-bound values of the one-sided 95% confidence interval for ΔΔQTcI of moxifloxacin with more than 5 ms confirmed the sensitivity of the assay. The maximum upper bound 95% confidence interval for the ΔΔQTcI of quetiapine IR and escitalopram was 13.7 and 10.5 ms, with mean estimates of 10.2 and 6.9 ms, respectively. Peak effects of moxifloxacin and quetiapine IR on ΔΔQTcI were observed at approximately time to maximum concentration (Tmax), whereas that of escitalopram was observed 3 h after Tmax. The concentration-ΔΔQTcI relationships of quetiapine IR and escitalopram were relatively flat, as compared with that of moxifloxacin. The results demonstrated the validity of trial methodology and that quetiapine IR and escitalopram caused QT prolongation in healthy individuals. In addition, hysteresis of escitalopram-induced QTc prolongation. These results indicate that higher doses of these drugs could lead to greater QT prolongation in a dose-response manner.

Estimating equivalence with quantile regression

USGS Publications Warehouse

Cade, B.S.

2011-01-01

Equivalence testing and corresponding confidence interval estimates are used to provide more enlightened statistical statements about parameter estimates by relating them to intervals of effect sizes deemed to be of scientific or practical importance rather than just to an effect size of zero. Equivalence tests and confidence interval estimates are based on a null hypothesis that a parameter estimate is either outside (inequivalence hypothesis) or inside (equivalence hypothesis) an equivalence region, depending on the question of interest and assignment of risk. The former approach, often referred to as bioequivalence testing, is often used in regulatory settings because it reverses the burden of proof compared to a standard test of significance, following a precautionary principle for environmental protection. Unfortunately, many applications of equivalence testing focus on establishing average equivalence by estimating differences in means of distributions that do not have homogeneous variances. I discuss how to compare equivalence across quantiles of distributions using confidence intervals on quantile regression estimates that detect differences in heterogeneous distributions missed by focusing on means. I used one-tailed confidence intervals based on inequivalence hypotheses in a two-group treatment-control design for estimating bioequivalence of arsenic concentrations in soils at an old ammunition testing site and bioequivalence of vegetation biomass at a reclaimed mining site. Two-tailed confidence intervals based both on inequivalence and equivalence hypotheses were used to examine quantile equivalence for negligible trends over time for a continuous exponential model of amphibian abundance. ?? 2011 by the Ecological Society of America.

Fasting glucose levels, incident diabetes, subclinical atherosclerosis and cardiovascular events in apparently healthy adults: A 12-year longitudinal study.

PubMed

Sitnik, Debora; Santos, Itamar S; Goulart, Alessandra C; Staniak, Henrique L; Manson, JoAnn E; Lotufo, Paulo A; Bensenor, Isabela M

2016-11-01

We aimed to study the association between fasting plasma glucose, diabetes incidence and cardiovascular burden after 10-12 years. We evaluated diabetes and cardiovascular events incidences, carotid intima-media thickness and coronary artery calcium scores in ELSA-Brasil (the Brazilian Longitudinal Study of Adult Health) baseline (2008-2010) of 1536 adults without diabetes in 1998. We used regression models to estimate association with carotid intima-media thickness (in mm), coronary artery calcium scores (in Agatston points) and cardiovascular events according to fasting plasma glucose in 1998. Adjusted diabetes incidence rate was 9.8/1000 person-years (95% confidence interval: 7.7-13.6/1000 person-years). Incident diabetes was positively associated with higher fasting plasma glucose. Fasting plasma glucose levels 110-125 mg/dL were associated with higher carotid intima-media thickness (β = 0.028; 95% confidence interval: 0.003-0.053). Excluding those with incident diabetes, there was a borderline association between higher carotid intima-media thickness and fasting plasma glucose 110-125 mg/dL (β = 0.030; 95% confidence interval: -0.005 to 0.065). Incident diabetes was associated with higher carotid intima-media thickness (β = 0.034; 95% confidence interval: 0.015-0.053), coronary artery calcium scores ⩾400 (odds ratio = 2.84; 95% confidence interval: 1.17-6.91) and the combined outcome of a coronary artery calcium scores ⩾400 or incident cardiovascular event (odds ratio = 3.50; 95% confidence interval: 1.60-7.65). In conclusion, fasting plasma glucose in 1998 and incident diabetes were associated with higher cardiovascular burden. © The Author(s) 2016.

Prevalence of infections among residents of Residential Care Homes for the Elderly in Hong Kong.

PubMed

Choy, C Sm; Chen, H; Yau, C Sw; Hsu, E K; Chik, N Y; Wong, A Ty

2016-08-01

A point prevalence study was conducted to study the epidemiology of common infections among residents in Residential Care Homes for the Elderly in Hong Kong and their associated factors. Residential Care Homes for the Elderly in Hong Kong were selected by stratified single-stage cluster random sampling. All residents aged 65 years or above from the recruited homes were surveyed. Infections were identified using standardised definitions. Demographic and health information-including medical history, immunisation record, antibiotic use, and activities of daily living (as measured by Barthel Index)-was collected by a survey team to determine any associated factors. Data were collected from 3857 residents in 46 Residential Care Homes for the Elderly from February to May 2014. A total of 105 residents had at least one type of infection based on the survey definition. The overall prevalence of all infections was 2.7% (95% confidence interval, 2.2%-3.4%). The three most common infections were of the respiratory tract (1.3%; 95% confidence interval, 0.9%-1.9%), skin and soft tissue (0.7%; 95% confidence interval, 0.5%-1.0%), and urinary tract (0.5%; 95% confidence interval, 0.3%-0.9%). Total dependence in activities of daily living, as indicated by low Barthel Index score of 0 to 20 (odds ratio=3.0; 95% confidence interval, 1.4-6.2), and presence of a wound or stoma (odds ratio=2.7; 95% confidence interval, 1.4-4.9) were significantly associated with presence of infection. This survey provides information about infections among residents in Residential Care Homes for the Elderly in the territory. Local data enable us to understand the burden of infections and formulate targeted measures for prevention.

Influence of Objective Three-Dimensional Measures and Movement Images on Surgeon Treatment Planning for Lip Revision Surgery

PubMed Central

Trotman, Carroll-Ann; Phillips, Ceib; Faraway, Julian J.; Hartman, Terry; van Aalst, John A.

2013-01-01

Objective To determine whether a systematic evaluation of facial soft tissues of patients with cleft lip and palate, using facial video images and objective three-dimensional measurements of movement, change surgeons’ treatment plans for lip revision surgery. Design Prospective longitudinal study. Setting The University of North Carolina School of Dentistry. Patients, Participants A group of patients with repaired cleft lip and palate (n = 21), a noncleft control group (n = 37), and surgeons experienced in cleft care. Interventions Lip revision. Main Outcome Measures (1) facial photographic images; (2) facial video images during animations; (3) objective three-dimensional measurements of upper lip movement based on z scores; and (4) objective dynamic and visual three-dimensional measurement of facial soft tissue movement. Results With the use of the video images plus objective three-dimensional measures, changes were made to the problem list of the surgical treatment plan for 86% of the patients (95% confidence interval, 0.64 to 0.97) and the surgical goals for 71% of the patients (95% confidence interval, 0.48 to 0.89). The surgeon group varied in the percentage of patients for whom the problem list was modified, ranging from 24% (95% confidence interval, 8% to 47%) to 48% (95% confidence interval, 26% to 70%) of patients, and the percentage for whom the surgical goals were modified, ranging from 14% (94% confidence interval, 3% to 36%) to 48% (95% confidence interval, 26% to 70%) of patients. Conclusions For all surgeons, the additional assessment components of the systematic valuation resulted in a change in clinical decision making for some patients. PMID:23855676

Lower hospital mortality and complications after pediatric hematopoietic stem cell transplantation.

PubMed

Bratton, Susan L; Van Duker, Heather; Statler, Kimberly D; Pulsipher, Michael A; McArthur, Jennifer; Keenan, Heather T

2008-03-01

To assess protective and risk factors for mortality among pediatric patients during initial care after hematopoietic stem cell transplantation (HSCT) and to evaluate changes in hospital mortality. Retrospective cohort using the 1997, 2000, and 2003 Kids Inpatient Database, a probabilistic sample of children hospitalized in the United States with a procedure code for HSCT. Hospitalized patients in the United States submitted to the database. Age, <19 yrs. None. Hospital mortality significantly decreased from 12% in 1997 to 6% in 2003. Source of stem cells changed with increased use of cord blood. Rates of sepsis, graft versus host disease, and mechanical ventilation significantly decreased. Compared with autologous HSCT, patients who received an allogenic HSCT without T-cell depletion were more likely to die (adjusted odds ratio, 2.4; 95% confidence interval, 1.5, 3.9), while children who received cord blood HSCT were at the greatest risk of hospital death (adjusted odds ratio, 4.8; 95% confidence interval, 2.6, 9.1). Mechanical ventilation (adjusted odds ratio, 26.32; 95% confidence interval, 16.3-42.2), dialysis (adjusted odds ratio, 12.9; 95% confidence interval, 4.7-35.4), and sepsis (adjusted odds ratio, 3.9; 95% confidence interval, 2.5-6.1) were all independently associated with death, while care in 2003 was associated with decreased risk (adjusted odds ratio, 0.4; 95% confidence interval, 0.2-0.7) of death. Hospital mortality after HSCT in children decreased over time as did complications including need for mechanical ventilation, graft versus host disease, and sepsis. Prevention of complications is essential as the need for invasive support continues to be associated with high mortality risk.

High prevalence of refractive errors in a rural population: 'Nooravaran Salamat' Mobile Eye Clinic experience.

PubMed

Hashemi, Hassan; Rezvan, Farhad; Ostadimoghaddam, Hadi; Abdollahi, Majid; Hashemi, Maryam; Khabazkhoob, Mehdi

2013-01-01

The prevalence of myopia and hyperopia and determinants were determined in a rural population of Iran. Population-based cross-sectional study. Using random cluster sampling, 13 of the 83 villages of Khaf County in the north east of Iran were selected. Data from 2001 people over the age of 15 years were analysed. Visual acuity measurement, non-cycloplegic refraction and eye examinations were done at the Mobile Eye Clinic. The prevalence of myopia and hyperopia based on spherical equivalent worse than -0.5 dioptre and +0.5 dioptre, respectively. The prevalence of myopia, hyperopia and anisometropia in the total study sample was 28% (95% confidence interval: 25.9-30.2), 19.2% (95% confidence interval: 17.3-21.1), and 11.5% (95% confidence interval: 10.0-13.1), respectively. In the over 40 population, the prevalence of myopia and hyperopia was 32.5% (95% confidence interval: 28.9-36.1) and 27.9% (95% confidence interval: 24.5-31.3), respectively. In the multiple regression model for this group, myopia strongly correlated with cataract (odds ratio = 1.98 and 95% confidence interval: 1.33-2.93), and hyperopia only correlated with age (P < 0.001). The prevalence of high myopia and high hyperopia was 1.5% and 4.6%. In the multiple regression model, anisometropia significantly correlated with age (odds ratio = 1.04) and cataract (odds ratio = 5.2) (P < 0.001). The prevalence of myopia and anisometropia was higher than that in previous studies in urban population of Iran, especially in the elderly. Cataract was the only variable that correlated with myopia and anisometropia. © 2013 The Authors. Clinical and Experimental Ophthalmology © 2013 Royal Australian and New Zealand College of Ophthalmologists.

The Association Between Maternal Age and Cerebral Palsy Risk Factors.

PubMed

Schneider, Rilla E; Ng, Pamela; Zhang, Xun; Andersen, John; Buckley, David; Fehlings, Darcy; Kirton, Adam; Wood, Ellen; van Rensburg, Esias; Shevell, Michael I; Oskoui, Maryam

2018-05-01

Advanced maternal age is associated with higher frequencies of antenatal and perinatal conditions, as well as a higher risk of cerebral palsy in offspring. We explore the association between maternal age and specific cerebral palsy risk factors. Data were extracted from the Canadian Cerebral Palsy Registry. Maternal age was categorized as ≥35 years of age and less than 20 years of age at the time of birth. Chi-square and multivariate logistic regressions were performed to calculate odds ratios and their 95% confidence intervals. The final sample consisted of 1391 children with cerebral palsy, with 19% of children having mothers aged 35 or older and 4% of children having mothers below the age of 20. Univariate analyses showed that mothers aged 35 or older were more likely to have gestational diabetes (odds ratio 1.9, 95% confidence interval 1.3 to 2.8), to have a history of miscarriage (odds ratio 1.8, 95% confidence interval 1.3 to 2.4), to have undergone fertility treatments (odds ratio 2.4, 95% confidence interval 1.5 to 3.9), and to have delivered by Caesarean section (odds ratio 1.6, 95% confidence interval 1.2 to 2.2). These findings were supported by multivariate analyses. Children with mothers below the age of 20 were more likely to have a congenital malformation (odds ratio 2.4, 95% confidence interval 1.4 to 4.2), which is also supported by multivariate analysis. The risk factor profiles of children with cerebral palsy vary by maternal age. Future studies are warranted to further our understanding of the compound causal pathways leading to cerebral palsy and the observed greater prevalence of cerebral palsy with increasing maternal age. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Priorities for treatment, care and information if faced with serious illness: a comparative population-based survey in seven European countries.

PubMed

Higginson, Irene J; Gomes, Barbara; Calanzani, Natalia; Gao, Wei; Bausewein, Claudia; Daveson, Barbara A; Deliens, Luc; Ferreira, Pedro L; Toscani, Franco; Gysels, Marjolein; Ceulemans, Lucas; Simon, Steffen T; Cohen, Joachim; Harding, Richard

2014-02-01

Health-care costs are growing, with little population-based data about people's priorities for end-of-life care, to guide service development and aid discussions. We examined variations in people's priorities for treatment, care and information across seven European countries. Telephone survey of a random sample of households; we asked respondents their priorities if 'faced with a serious illness, like cancer, with limited time to live' and used multivariable logistic regressions to identify associated factors. Members of the general public aged ≥ 16 years residing in England, Flanders, Germany, Italy, the Netherlands, Portugal and Spain. In total, 9344 individuals were interviewed. Most people chose 'improve quality of life for the time they had left', ranging from 57% (95% confidence interval: 55%-60%, Italy) to 81% (95% confidence interval: 79%-83%, Spain). Only 2% (95% confidence interval: 1%-3%, England) to 6% (95% confidence interval: 4%-7%, Flanders) said extending life was most important, and 15% (95% confidence interval: 13%-17%, Spain) to 40% (95% confidence interval: 37%-43%, Italy) said quality and extension were equally important. Prioritising quality of life was associated with higher education in all countries (odds ratio = 1.3 (Flanders) to 7.9 (Italy)), experience of caregiving or bereavement (England, Germany, Portugal), prioritising pain/symptom control over having a positive attitude and preferring death in a hospice/palliative care unit. Those prioritising extending life had the highest home death preference of all groups. Health status did not affect priorities. Across all countries, extending life was prioritised by a minority, regardless of health status. Treatment and care needs to be reoriented with patient education and palliative care becoming mainstream for serious conditions such as cancer.

Air pollution attributable postneonatal infant mortality in U.S. metropolitan areas: a risk assessment study

PubMed Central

Kaiser, Reinhard; Romieu, Isabelle; Medina, Sylvia; Schwartz, Joel; Krzyzanowski, Michal; Künzli, Nino

2004-01-01

Background The impact of outdoor air pollution on infant mortality has not been quantified. Methods Based on exposure-response functions from a U.S. cohort study, we assessed the attributable risk of postneonatal infant mortality in 23 U.S. metropolitan areas related to particulate matter <10 μm in diameter (PM10) as a surrogate of total air pollution. Results The estimated proportion of all cause mortality, sudden infant death syndrome (normal birth weight infants only) and respiratory disease mortality (normal birth weight) attributable to PM10 above a chosen reference value of 12.0 μg/m3 PM10 was 6% (95% confidence interval 3–11%), 16% (95% confidence interval 9–23%) and 24% (95% confidence interval 7–44%), respectively. The expected number of infant deaths per year in the selected areas was 106 (95% confidence interval 53–185), 79 (95% confidence interval 46–111) and 15 (95% confidence interval 5–27), respectively. Approximately 75% of cases were from areas where the current levels are at or below the new U.S. PM2.5 standard of 15 μg/m3 (equivalent to 25 μg/m3 PM10). In a country where infant mortality rates and air pollution levels are relatively low, ambient air pollution as measured by particulate matter contributes to a substantial fraction of infant death, especially for those due to sudden infant death syndrome and respiratory disease. Even if all counties would comply to the new PM2.5 standard, the majority of the estimated burden would remain. Conclusion Given the inherent limitations of risk assessments, further studies are needed to support and quantify the relationship between infant mortality and air pollution. PMID:15128459

Confidence intervals for population allele frequencies: the general case of sampling from a finite diploid population of any size.

PubMed

Fung, Tak; Keenan, Kevin

2014-01-01

The estimation of population allele frequencies using sample data forms a central component of studies in population genetics. These estimates can be used to test hypotheses on the evolutionary processes governing changes in genetic variation among populations. However, existing studies frequently do not account for sampling uncertainty in these estimates, thus compromising their utility. Incorporation of this uncertainty has been hindered by the lack of a method for constructing confidence intervals containing the population allele frequencies, for the general case of sampling from a finite diploid population of any size. In this study, we address this important knowledge gap by presenting a rigorous mathematical method to construct such confidence intervals. For a range of scenarios, the method is used to demonstrate that for a particular allele, in order to obtain accurate estimates within 0.05 of the population allele frequency with high probability (> or = 95%), a sample size of > 30 is often required. This analysis is augmented by an application of the method to empirical sample allele frequency data for two populations of the checkerspot butterfly (Melitaea cinxia L.), occupying meadows in Finland. For each population, the method is used to derive > or = 98.3% confidence intervals for the population frequencies of three alleles. These intervals are then used to construct two joint > or = 95% confidence regions, one for the set of three frequencies for each population. These regions are then used to derive a > or = 95%% confidence interval for Jost's D, a measure of genetic differentiation between the two populations. Overall, the results demonstrate the practical utility of the method with respect to informing sampling design and accounting for sampling uncertainty in studies of population genetics, important for scientific hypothesis-testing and also for risk-based natural resource management.

Coefficient Alpha Bootstrap Confidence Interval under Nonnormality

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Padilla, Miguel A.; Divers, Jasmin; Newton, Matthew

2012-01-01

Three different bootstrap methods for estimating confidence intervals (CIs) for coefficient alpha were investigated. In addition, the bootstrap methods were compared with the most promising coefficient alpha CI estimation methods reported in the literature. The CI methods were assessed through a Monte Carlo simulation utilizing conditions…

Four Bootstrap Confidence Intervals for the Binomial-Error Model.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Lin, Miao-Hsiang; Hsiung, Chao A.

1992-01-01

Four bootstrap methods are identified for constructing confidence intervals for the binomial-error model. The extent to which similar results are obtained and the theoretical foundation of each method and its relevance and ranges of modeling the true score uncertainty are discussed. (SLD)

Teach a Confidence Interval for the Median in the First Statistics Course

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Howington, Eric B.

2017-01-01

Few introductory statistics courses consider statistical inference for the median. This article argues in favour of adding a confidence interval for the median to the first statistics course. Several methods suitable for introductory statistics students are identified and briefly reviewed.

Increased calcium supplementation is associated with morbidity and mortality in the infant postoperative cardiac patient.

PubMed

Dyke, Peter C; Yates, Andrew R; Cua, Clifford L; Hoffman, Timothy M; Hayes, John; Feltes, Timothy F; Springer, Michelle A; Taeed, Roozbeh

2007-05-01

The purpose of this study was to assess the association of calcium replacement therapy with morbidity and mortality in infants after cardiac surgery involving cardiopulmonary bypass. Retrospective chart review. The cardiac intensive care unit at a tertiary care children's hospital. Infants undergoing cardiac surgery involving cardiopulmonary bypass between October 2002 and August 2004. None. Total calcium replacement (mg/kg calcium chloride given) for the first 72 postoperative hours was measured. Morbidity and mortality data were collected. The total volume of blood products given during the first 72 hrs was recorded. Infants with confirmed chromosomal deletions at the 22q11 locus were noted. Correlation and logistic regression analyses were used to generate odds ratios and 95% confidence intervals, with p < .05 being significant. One hundred seventy-one infants met inclusion criteria. Age was 4 +/- 3 months and weight was 4.9 +/- 1.7 kg at surgery. Six infants had deletions of chromosome 22q11. Infants who weighed less required more calcium replacement (r = -.28, p < .001). Greater calcium replacement correlated with a longer intensive care unit length of stay (r = .27, p < .001) and a longer total hospital length of stay (r = .23, p = .002). Greater calcium replacement was significantly associated with morbidity (liver dysfunction [odds ratio, 3.9; confidence interval, 2.1-7.3; p < .001], central nervous system complication [odds ratio, 1.8; confidence interval, 1.1-3.0; p = .02], infection [odds ratio, 1.5; confidence interval, 1.0-2.2; p < .04], extracorporeal membrane oxygenation [odds ratio, 5.0; confidence interval, 2.3-10.6; p < .001]) and mortality (odds ratio, 5.8; confidence interval, 5.8-5.9; p < .001). Greater calcium replacement was not associated with renal insufficiency (odds ratio, 1.5; confidence interval, 0.9-2.3; p = .07). Infants with >1 sd above the mean of total calcium replacement received on average fewer blood products than the total study population. Greater calcium replacement is associated with increasing morbidity and mortality. Further investigation of the etiology and therapy of hypocalcemia in this population is warranted.

WITHDRAWN: Amnioinfusion for meconium-stained liquor in labour.

PubMed

Hofmeyr, G Justus

2009-01-21

Amnioinfusion aims to prevent or relieve umbilical cord compression during labour by infusing a solution into the uterine cavity. It is also thought to dilute meconium when present in the amniotic fluid and so reduce the risk of meconium aspiration. However, it may be that the mechanism of effect is that it corrects oligohydramnios (reduced amniotic fluid), for which thick meconium staining is a marker. The objective of this review was to assess the effects of amnioinfusion for meconium-stained liquor on perinatal outcome. The Cochrane Pregnancy and Childbirth Group trials register (October 2001) and the Cochrane Controlled Trials Register (Issue 3, 2001) were searched. Randomised trials comparing amnioinfusion with no amnioinfusion for women in labour with moderate or thick meconium-staining of the amniotic fluid. Eligibility and trial quality were assessed by one reviewer. Twelve studies, most involving small numbers of participants, were included. Under standard perinatal surveillance, amnioinfusion was associated with a reduction in the following: heavy meconium staining of the liquor (relative risk 0.03, 95% confidence interval 0.01 to 0.15); variable fetal heart rate deceleration (relative risk 0.65, 95% confidence interval 0.49 to 0.88); and reduced caesarean section overall (relative risk 0.82, 95% confidence interval 0.69 to 1.97). No perinatal deaths were reported. Under limited perinatal surveillance, amnioinfusion was associated with a reduction in the following: meconium aspiration syndrome (relative risk 0.24, 95% confidence interval 0.12 to 0.48); neonatal hypoxic ischaemic encephalopathy (relative risk 0.07, 95% confidence interval 0.01 to 0.56) and neonatal ventilation or intensive care unit admission (relative risk 0.56, 95% confidence interval 0.39 to 0.79); there was a trend towards reduced perinatal mortality (relative risk 0.34, 95% confidence interval 0.11 to 1.06). Amnioinfusion is associated with improvements in perinatal outcome, particularly in settings where facilities for perinatal surveillance are limited. The trials reviewed are too small to address the possibility of rare but serious maternal adverse effects of amnioinfusion.

Reliability of clinical findings and magnetic resonance imaging for the diagnosis of chondromalacia patellae.

PubMed

Pihlajamäki, Harri K; Kuikka, Paavo-Ilari; Leppänen, Vesa-Veikko; Kiuru, Martti J; Mattila, Ville M

2010-04-01

This diagnostic study was performed to determine the correlation between anterior knee pain and chondromalacia patellae and to define the reliability of magnetic resonance imaging for the diagnosis of chondromalacia patellae. Fifty-six young adults (median age, 19.5 years) with anterior knee pain had magnetic resonance imaging of the knee followed by arthroscopy. The patellar chondral lesions identified by magnetic resonance imaging were compared with the arthroscopic findings. Arthroscopy confirmed the presence of chondromalacia patellae in twenty-five (45%) of the fifty-six knees, a synovial plica in twenty-five knees, a meniscal tear in four knees, and a femorotibial chondral lesion in four knees; normal anatomy was seen in six knees. No association was found between the severity of the chondromalacia patellae seen at arthroscopy and the clinical symptoms of anterior knee pain syndrome (p = 0.83). The positive predictive value for the ability of 1.0-T magnetic resonance imaging to detect chondromalacia patellae was 75% (95% confidence interval, 53% to 89%), the negative predictive value was 72% (95% confidence interval, 56% to 84%), the sensitivity was 60% (95% confidence interval, 41% to 77%), the specificity was 84% (95% confidence interval, 67% to 93%), and the diagnostic accuracy was 73% (95% confidence interval, 60% to 83%). The sensitivity was 13% (95% confidence interval, 2% to 49%) for grade-I lesions and 83% (95% confidence interval, 59% to 94%) for grade-II, III, or IV lesions. Chondromalacia patellae cannot be diagnosed on the basis of symptoms or with current physical examination methods. The present study demonstrated no correlation between the severity of chondromalacia patellae and the clinical symptoms of anterior knee pain syndrome. Thus, symptoms of anterior knee pain syndrome should not be used as an indication for knee arthroscopy. The sensitivity of 1.0-T magnetic resonance imaging was low for grade-I lesions but considerably higher for more severe (grade-II, III, or IV) lesions. Magnetic resonance imaging may be considered an accurate diagnostic tool for identification of more severe cases of chondromalacia patellae.

Asymptomatic Intradialytic Supraventricular Arrhythmias and Adverse Outcomes in Patients on Hemodialysis

PubMed Central

Pérez de Prado, Armando; López-Gómez, Juan M.; Quiroga, Borja; Goicoechea, Marian; García-Prieto, Ana; Torres, Esther; Reque, Javier; Luño, José

2016-01-01

Background and objectives Supraventricular arrhythmias are associated with high morbidity and mortality. Nevertheless, this condition has received little attention in patients on hemodialysis. The objective of this study was to analyze the incidence of intradialysis supraventricular arrhythmia and its long–term prognostic value. Design, setting, participants, & measurements We designed an observational and prospective study in a cohort of patients on hemodialysis with a 10-year follow-up period. All patients were recruited for study participation and were not recruited for clinical indications. The study population comprised 77 patients (42 men and 35 women; mean age =58±15 years old) with sinus rhythm monitored using a Holter electrocardiogram over six consecutive hemodialysis sessions at recruitment. Results Hypertension was present in 68.8% of patients, and diabetes was present in 29.9% of patients. Supraventricular arrhythmias were recorded in 38 patients (49.3%); all of these were short, asymptomatic, and self-limiting. Age (hazard ratio, 1.04 per year; 95% confidence interval, 1.00 to 1.08) and right atrial enlargement (hazard ratio, 4.29; 95% confidence interval, 1.30 to 14.09) were associated with supraventricular arrhythmia in the multivariate analysis. During a median follow-up of 40 months, 57 patients died, and cardiovascular disease was the main cause of death (52.6%). The variables associated with all-cause mortality in the Cox model were age (hazard ratio, 1.04 per year; 95% confidence interval, 1.00 to 1.08), C-reactive protein (hazard ratio, 1.04 per 1 mg/L; 95% confidence interval, 1.00 to 1.08), and supraventricular arrhythmia (hazard ratio, 3.21; 95% confidence interval, 1.29 to 7.96). Patients with supraventricular arrhythmia also had a higher risk of nonfatal cardiovascular events (hazard ratio, 4.32; 95% confidence interval, 2.11 to 8.83) and symptomatic atrial fibrillation during follow-up (hazard ratio, 17.19; 95% confidence interval, 2.03 to 145.15). Conclusions The incidence of intradialysis supraventricular arrhythmia was high in our hemodialysis study population. Supraventricular arrhythmias were short, asymptomatic, and self-limiting, and although silent, these arrhythmias were independently associated with mortality and cardiovascular events. PMID:27697781

Asymptomatic Intradialytic Supraventricular Arrhythmias and Adverse Outcomes in Patients on Hemodialysis.

PubMed

Verde, Eduardo; Pérez de Prado, Armando; López-Gómez, Juan M; Quiroga, Borja; Goicoechea, Marian; García-Prieto, Ana; Torres, Esther; Reque, Javier; Luño, José

2016-12-07

Supraventricular arrhythmias are associated with high morbidity and mortality. Nevertheless, this condition has received little attention in patients on hemodialysis. The objective of this study was to analyze the incidence of intradialysis supraventricular arrhythmia and its long-term prognostic value. We designed an observational and prospective study in a cohort of patients on hemodialysis with a 10-year follow-up period. All patients were recruited for study participation and were not recruited for clinical indications. The study population comprised 77 patients (42 men and 35 women; mean age =58±15 years old) with sinus rhythm monitored using a Holter electrocardiogram over six consecutive hemodialysis sessions at recruitment. Hypertension was present in 68.8% of patients, and diabetes was present in 29.9% of patients. Supraventricular arrhythmias were recorded in 38 patients (49.3%); all of these were short, asymptomatic, and self-limiting. Age (hazard ratio, 1.04 per year; 95% confidence interval, 1.00 to 1.08) and right atrial enlargement (hazard ratio, 4.29; 95% confidence interval, 1.30 to 14.09) were associated with supraventricular arrhythmia in the multivariate analysis. During a median follow-up of 40 months, 57 patients died, and cardiovascular disease was the main cause of death (52.6%). The variables associated with all-cause mortality in the Cox model were age (hazard ratio, 1.04 per year; 95% confidence interval, 1.00 to 1.08), C-reactive protein (hazard ratio, 1.04 per 1 mg/L; 95% confidence interval, 1.00 to 1.08), and supraventricular arrhythmia (hazard ratio, 3.21; 95% confidence interval, 1.29 to 7.96). Patients with supraventricular arrhythmia also had a higher risk of nonfatal cardiovascular events (hazard ratio, 4.32; 95% confidence interval, 2.11 to 8.83) and symptomatic atrial fibrillation during follow-up (hazard ratio, 17.19; 95% confidence interval, 2.03 to 145.15). The incidence of intradialysis supraventricular arrhythmia was high in our hemodialysis study population. Supraventricular arrhythmias were short, asymptomatic, and self-limiting, and although silent, these arrhythmias were independently associated with mortality and cardiovascular events. Copyright © 2016 by the American Society of Nephrology.

Long-term Results of an Obesity Program in an Ethnically Diverse Pediatric Population

PubMed Central

Nowicka, Paulina; Shaw, Melissa; Yu, Sunkyung; Dziura, James; Chavent, Georgia; O'Malley, Grace; Serrecchia, John B.; Tamborlane, William V.; Caprio, Sonia

2011-01-01

OBJECTIVE: To determine if beneficial effects of a weight-management program could be sustained for up to 24 months in a randomized trial in an ethnically diverse obese population. PATIENTS AND METHODS: There were 209 obese children (BMI > 95th percentile), ages 8 to 16 of mixed ethnic backgrounds randomly assigned to the intensive lifestyle intervention or clinic control group. The control group received counseling every 6 months, and the intervention group received a family-based program, which included exercise, nutrition, and behavior modification. Lifestyle intervention sessions occurred twice weekly for the first 6 months, then twice monthly for the second 6 months; for the last 12 months there was no active intervention. There were 174 children who completed the 12 months of the randomized trial. Follow-up data were available for 76 of these children at 24 months. There were no statistical differences in dropout rates among ethnic groups or in any other aspects. RESULTS: Treatment effect was sustained at 24 months in the intervention versus control group for BMI z score (−0.16 [95% confidence interval: −0.23 to −0.09]), BMI (−2.8 kg/m2 [95% confidence interval: −4.0–1.6 kg/m2]), percent body fat (−4.2% [95% confidence interval: −6.4% to −2.0%]), total body fat mass (−5.8 kg [95% confidence interval: −9.1 kg to −2.6 kg]), total cholesterol (−13.0 mg/dL [95% confidence interval: −21.7 mg/dL to −4.2 mg/dL]), low-density lipoprotein cholesterol (−10.4 mg/dL [95% confidence interval: −18.3 mg/dL to −2.4 mg/dL]), and homeostasis model assessment of insulin resistance (−2.05 [95% confidence interval: −2.48 to −1.75]). CONCLUSIONS: This study, unprecedented because of the high degree of obesity and ethnically diverse backgrounds of children, reveals that benefits of an intensive lifestyle program can be sustained 12 months after completing the active intervention phase. PMID:21300674

Application of artificial neural networks to establish a predictive mortality risk model in children admitted to a paediatric intensive care unit.

PubMed

Chan, C H; Chan, E Y; Ng, D K; Chow, P Y; Kwok, K L

2006-11-01

Paediatric risk of mortality and paediatric index of mortality (PIM) are the commonly-used mortality prediction models (MPM) in children admitted to paediatric intensive care unit (PICU). The current study was undertaken to develop a better MPM using artificial neural network, a domain of artificial intelligence. The purpose of this retrospective case series was to compare an artificial neural network (ANN) model and PIM with the observed mortality in a cohort of patients admitted to a five-bed PICU in a Hong Kong non-teaching general hospital. The patients were under the age of 17 years and admitted to our PICU from April 2001 to December 2004. Data were collected from each patient admitted to our PICU. All data were randomly allocated to either the training or validation set. The data from the training set were used to construct a series of ANN models. The data from the validation set were used to validate the ANN and PIM models. The accuracy of ANN models and PIM was assessed by area under the receiver operator characteristics (ROC) curve and calibration. All data were randomly allocated to either the training (n=274) or validation set (n=273). Three ANN models were developed using the data from the training set, namely ANN8 (trained with variables required for PIM), ANN9 (trained with variables required for PIM and pre-ICU intubation) and ANN23 (trained with variables required for ANN9 and 14 principal ICU diagnoses). Three ANN models and PIM were used to predict mortality in the validation set. We found that PIM and ANN9 had a high ROC curve (PIM: 0.808, 95 percent confidence interval 0.552 to 1.000, ANN9: 0.957, 95 percent confidence interval 0.915 to 1.000), whereas ANN8 and ANN23 gave a suboptimal area under the ROC curve. ANN8 required only five variables for the calculation of risk, compared with eight for PIM. The current study demonstrated the process of predictive mortality risk model development using ANN. Further multicentre studies are required to produce a representative ANN-based mortality prediction model for use in different PICUs.

Quantile regression models of animal habitat relationships

USGS Publications Warehouse

Cade, Brian S.

2003-01-01

Typically, all factors that limit an organism are not measured and included in statistical models used to investigate relationships with their environment. If important unmeasured variables interact multiplicatively with the measured variables, the statistical models often will have heterogeneous response distributions with unequal variances. Quantile regression is an approach for estimating the conditional quantiles of a response variable distribution in the linear model, providing a more complete view of possible causal relationships between variables in ecological processes. Chapter 1 introduces quantile regression and discusses the ordering characteristics, interval nature, sampling variation, weighting, and interpretation of estimates for homogeneous and heterogeneous regression models. Chapter 2 evaluates performance of quantile rankscore tests used for hypothesis testing and constructing confidence intervals for linear quantile regression estimates (0 ≤ τ ≤ 1). A permutation F test maintained better Type I errors than the Chi-square T test for models with smaller n, greater number of parameters p, and more extreme quantiles τ. Both versions of the test required weighting to maintain correct Type I errors when there was heterogeneity under the alternative model. An example application related trout densities to stream channel width:depth. Chapter 3 evaluates a drop in dispersion, F-ratio like permutation test for hypothesis testing and constructing confidence intervals for linear quantile regression estimates (0 ≤ τ ≤ 1). Chapter 4 simulates from a large (N = 10,000) finite population representing grid areas on a landscape to demonstrate various forms of hidden bias that might occur when the effect of a measured habitat variable on some animal was confounded with the effect of another unmeasured variable (spatially and not spatially structured). Depending on whether interactions of the measured habitat and unmeasured variable were negative (interference interactions) or positive (facilitation interactions), either upper (τ > 0.5) or lower (τ < 0.5) quantile regression parameters were less biased than mean rate parameters. Sampling (n = 20 - 300) simulations demonstrated that confidence intervals constructed by inverting rankscore tests provided valid coverage of these biased parameters. Quantile regression was used to estimate effects of physical habitat resources on a bivalve mussel (Macomona liliana) in a New Zealand harbor by modeling the spatial trend surface as a cubic polynomial of location coordinates.

Psychosocial and nonclinical factors predicting hospital utilization in patients of a chronic disease management program: a prospective observational study.

PubMed

Tran, Mark W; Weiland, Tracey J; Phillips, Georgina A

2015-01-01

Psychosocial factors such as marital status (odds ratio, 3.52; 95% confidence interval, 1.43-8.69; P = .006) and nonclinical factors such as outpatient nonattendances (odds ratio, 2.52; 95% confidence interval, 1.22-5.23; P = .013) and referrals made (odds ratio, 1.20; 95% confidence interval, 1.06-1.35; P = .003) predict hospital utilization for patients in a chronic disease management program. Along with optimizing patients' clinical condition by prescribed medical guidelines and supporting patient self-management, addressing psychosocial and nonclinical issues are important in attempting to avoid hospital utilization for people with chronic illnesses.

Methods for calculating confidence and credible intervals for the residual between-study variance in random effects meta-regression models

PubMed Central

2014-01-01

Background Meta-regression is becoming increasingly used to model study level covariate effects. However this type of statistical analysis presents many difficulties and challenges. Here two methods for calculating confidence intervals for the magnitude of the residual between-study variance in random effects meta-regression models are developed. A further suggestion for calculating credible intervals using informative prior distributions for the residual between-study variance is presented. Methods Two recently proposed and, under the assumptions of the random effects model, exact methods for constructing confidence intervals for the between-study variance in random effects meta-analyses are extended to the meta-regression setting. The use of Generalised Cochran heterogeneity statistics is extended to the meta-regression setting and a Newton-Raphson procedure is developed to implement the Q profile method for meta-analysis and meta-regression. WinBUGS is used to implement informative priors for the residual between-study variance in the context of Bayesian meta-regressions. Results Results are obtained for two contrasting examples, where the first example involves a binary covariate and the second involves a continuous covariate. Intervals for the residual between-study variance are wide for both examples. Conclusions Statistical methods, and R computer software, are available to compute exact confidence intervals for the residual between-study variance under the random effects model for meta-regression. These frequentist methods are almost as easily implemented as their established counterparts for meta-analysis. Bayesian meta-regressions are also easily performed by analysts who are comfortable using WinBUGS. Estimates of the residual between-study variance in random effects meta-regressions should be routinely reported and accompanied by some measure of their uncertainty. Confidence and/or credible intervals are well-suited to this purpose. PMID:25196829

Confidence Interval Coverage for Cohen's Effect Size Statistic

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Algina, James; Keselman, H. J.; Penfield, Randall D.

2006-01-01

Kelley compared three methods for setting a confidence interval (CI) around Cohen's standardized mean difference statistic: the noncentral-"t"-based, percentile (PERC) bootstrap, and biased-corrected and accelerated (BCA) bootstrap methods under three conditions of nonnormality, eight cases of sample size, and six cases of population…

Persistent opioid use following Cesarean delivery: patterns and predictors among opioid naïve women

PubMed Central

Bateman, Brian T.; Franklin, Jessica M.; Bykov, Katsiaryna; Avorn, Jerry; Shrank, William H.; Brennan, Troyen A.; Landon, Joan E.; Rathmell, James P.; Huybrechts, Krista F.; Fischer, Michael A.; Choudhry, Niteesh K.

2016-01-01

Background The incidence of opioid-related death in women has increased five-fold over the past decade. For many women, their initial opioid exposure will occur in the setting of routine medical care. Approximately 1 in 3 deliveries in the U.S. is by Cesarean and opioids are commonly prescribed for post-surgical pain management. Objective The objective of this study was to determine the risk that opioid naïve women prescribed opioids after Cesarean delivery will subsequently become consistent prescription opioid users in the year following delivery, and to identify predictors for this behavior. Study Design We identified women in a database of commercial insurance beneficiaries who underwent Cesarean delivery and who were opioid-naïve in the year prior to delivery. To identify persistent users of opioids, we used trajectory models, which group together patients with similar patterns of medication filling during follow-up, based on patterns of opioid dispensing in the year following Cesarean delivery. We then constructed a multivariable logistic regression model to identify independent risk factors for membership in the persistent user group. Results 285 of 80,127 (0.36%, 95% confidence interval 0.32 to 0.40), opioid-naïve women became persistent opioid users (identified using trajectory models based on monthly patterns of opioid dispensing) following Cesarean delivery. Demographics and baseline comorbidity predicted such use with moderate discrimination (c statistic = 0.73). Significant predictors included a history of cocaine abuse (risk 7.41%; adjusted odds ratio 6.11, 95% confidence interval 1.03 to 36.31) and other illicit substance abuse (2.36%; adjusted odds ratio 2.78, 95% confidence interval 1.12 to 6.91), tobacco use (1.45%; adjusted odds ratio 3.04, 95% confidence interval 2.03 to 4.55), back pain (0.69%; adjusted odds ratio 1.74, 95% confidence interval 1.33 to 2.29), migraines (0.91%; adjusted odds ratio 2.14, 95% confidence interval 1.58 to 2.90), antidepressant use (1.34%; adjusted odds ratio 3.19, 95% confidence interval 2.41 to 4.23) and benzodiazepine use (1.99%; adjusted odds ratio 3.72, 95% confidence interval 2.64 to 5.26) in the year prior to Cesarean delivery. Conclusions A very small proportion of opioid-naïve women (approximately 1 in 300) become persistent prescription opioid users following Cesarean delivery. Pre-existing psychiatric comorbidity, certain pain conditions, and substance use/abuse conditions identifiable at the time of initial opioid prescribing were predictors of persistent use. PMID:26996986

Emergency department patient satisfaction survey in Imam Reza Hospital, Tabriz, Iran

PubMed Central

2011-01-01

Introduction Patient satisfaction is an important indicator of the quality of care and service delivery in the emergency department (ED). The objective of this study was to evaluate patient satisfaction with the Emergency Department of Imam Reza Hospital in Tabriz, Iran. Methods This study was carried out for 1 week during all shifts. Trained researchers used the standard Press Ganey questionnaire. Patients were asked to complete the questionnaire prior to discharge. The study questionnaire included 30 questions based on a Likert scale. Descriptive and analytical statistics were used throughout data analysis in a number of ways using SPSS version 13. Results Five hundred patients who attended our ED were included in this study. The highest satisfaction rates were observed in the terms of physicians' communication with patients (82.5%), security guards' courtesy (78.3%) and nurses' communication with patients (78%). The average waiting time for the first visit to a physician was 24 min 15 s. The overall satisfaction rate was dependent on the mean waiting time. The mean waiting time for a low rate of satisfaction was 47 min 11 s with a confidence interval of (19.31, 74.51), and for very good level of satisfaction it was 14 min 57 s with a (10.58, 18.57) confidence interval. Approximately 63% of the patients rated their general satisfaction with the emergency setting as good or very good. On the whole, the patient satisfaction rate at the lowest level was 7.7 with a confidence interval of (5.1, 10.4), and at the low level it was 5.8% with a confidence interval of (3.7, 7.9). The rate of satisfaction for the mediocre level was 23.3 with a confidence interval of (19.1, 27.5); for the high level of satisfaction it was 28.3 with a confidence interval of (22.9, 32.8), and for the very high level of satisfaction, this rate was 32.9% with a confidence interval of (28.4, 37.4). Conclusion The study findings indicated the need for evidence-based interventions in emergency care services in areas such as medical care, nursing care, courtesy of staff, physical comfort and waiting time. Efforts should focus on shortening waiting intervals and improving patients' perceptions about waiting in the ED, and also improving the overall cleanliness of the emergency room. PMID:21407998

Social class, marginality and self-assessed health: a cross-sectional analysis of the health gradient in Mexico

PubMed Central

Valle, Adolfo Martinez

2009-01-01

Background Examining the association between social inequality and health is not new. However, there is little empirical evidence of this association in the Latin American literature, much less from the Mexican scholars. Its research, including the one conducted in Mexico, has mostly followed a theoretical approach and has not been able to provide strong empirical evidence of their important theoretical and conceptual contributions, mainly because reliable, complete and valid data are unavailable. Methods To empirically examine the gradient effect of social class on self-rated health in Mexico, a secondary cross-sectional mixed-level analysis was designed. Using individual level data from the Second National Health Survey (ENSA II), social class categories were specified following a stratification approach according to the occupation and education indicators available from ENSA II. Two types of categories were made, one for t urban and one for the rural labor force. Two indicators of perceived health status were used as health outcomes: self-assessed health and reported morbidity. Furthermore, the marginality index, an indicator of relative deprivation was used to examine its contextual effect at the state and regional level. The analysis was conducted using logistic multivariate models. Results The cross-sectional analysis showed a gradient effect of social class for good assessed-health. Relative to the low urban class, the odds ratio (OR) for a good perception of health for individuals belonging to the high urban class was 2.9 (95% confidence interval: 2.1–3.9). The OR for the middle high class was 2.8 (95% confidence interval: 2.4–3.4), while the OR for the middle low class was 1.8 (95% confidence interval: 1.6–2.1). However, for the rural labour force an OR of 1.5 was only significant between the high class who considered their health as good relative to the low class (95% confidence interval: 1.02–2.2). At the aggregate level, the results also showed individuals living in deprived regions were less likely to report their health as good than individuals living in relatively less deprived ones, OR = 0.6 (95% confidence interval: 0.4–0.7). Conclusion Overall, the findings of this study provided empirical evidence that social inequality negatively influences health through a differential exposure and an unequal distribution of resources across the class spectrum: the lower the social class, the poorer the perception of health. The results also showed that living in more deprived regions had a further negative effect on health. From a policy perspective, the gradient effects of social class suggest that non-targeted policies should be designed to address both material conditions at the individual level as well as deprived living conditions at higher levels of aggregation to improve health across the social spectrum. PMID:19236708

Application of validation data for assessing spatial interpolation methods for 8-h ozone or other sparsely monitored constituents.

PubMed

Joseph, John; Sharif, Hatim O; Sunil, Thankam; Alamgir, Hasanat

2013-07-01

The adverse health effects of high concentrations of ground-level ozone are well-known, but estimating exposure is difficult due to the sparseness of urban monitoring networks. This sparseness discourages the reservation of a portion of the monitoring stations for validation of interpolation techniques precisely when the risk of overfitting is greatest. In this study, we test a variety of simple spatial interpolation techniques for 8-h ozone with thousands of randomly selected subsets of data from two urban areas with monitoring stations sufficiently numerous to allow for true validation. Results indicate that ordinary kriging with only the range parameter calibrated in an exponential variogram is the generally superior method, and yields reliable confidence intervals. Sparse data sets may contain sufficient information for calibration of the range parameter even if the Moran I p-value is close to unity. R script is made available to apply the methodology to other sparsely monitored constituents. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

A solution to the static frame validation challenge problem using Bayesian model selection

DOE PAGES

Grigoriu, M. D.; Field, R. V.

2007-12-23

Within this paper, we provide a solution to the static frame validation challenge problem (see this issue) in a manner that is consistent with the guidelines provided by the Validation Challenge Workshop tasking document. The static frame problem is constructed such that variability in material properties is known to be the only source of uncertainty in the system description, but there is ignorance on the type of model that best describes this variability. Hence both types of uncertainty, aleatoric and epistemic, are present and must be addressed. Our approach is to consider a collection of competing probabilistic models for themore » material properties, and calibrate these models to the information provided; models of different levels of complexity and numerical efficiency are included in the analysis. A Bayesian formulation is used to select the optimal model from the collection, which is then used for the regulatory assessment. Lastly, bayesian credible intervals are used to provide a measure of confidence to our regulatory assessment.« less

Survey of Neurological Disorders in Children Aged 9-15 Years in Northern India.

PubMed

Kumar, Rashmi; Bhave, Anupama; Bhargava, Roli; Agarwal, G G

2016-04-01

The prevalence of neurological disorders in resource-poor settings, although likely to be high, is largely unexplored. The prevalence and risk factors for neurological disorders, including epilepsy and intellectual, motor, vision, and hearing deficits, in children aged 9 to 15 years in the community were investigated. A new instrument was developed, validated, and used in a 2-stage community survey for neurological disorders in Lucknow, India. Screen-positives and random proportion of screen-negatives were validated using predefined criteria. Prevalence of different neurological disorders was calculated by weighted proportions. Of 6431 children screened, 221 were positive. A total of 214 screen-positives and 251 screen-negatives were validated. Prevalence of neurological disorders was 31.3 per 1000 children of this age group (weighted 95% confidence interval = 16.5, 46.4). The final model for risk factors included age, mud house, delayed cry at birth, and previous head injury. The prevalence of neurological disorders is high in this region. Predictors of neurological disorders are largely modifiable. © The Author(s) 2015.

SeaWiFS technical report series. Volume 26: Results of the SeaWiFS Data Analysis Round-Robin, July 1994 (DARR-1994)

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hooker, Stanford B. (Editor); Firestone, Elaine R. (Editor); Siegel, David A.; Obrien, Margaret C.; Sorensen, Jen C.; Konnoff, Daniel A.; Brody, Eric A.; Mueller, James L.; Davis, Curtiss O.; Rhea, W. Joseph

1995-01-01

The accurate determination of upper ocean apparent optical properties (AOP's) is essential for the vicarious calibration of the sea-viewing wide field-of-view sensor (SeaWiFS) instrument and the validation of the derived data products. To evaluate the role that data analysis methods have upon values of derived AOP's, the first Data Analysis Round-Robin (DARR-94) workshop was sponsored by the SeaWiFS Project during 21-23 July, 1994. The focus of this intercomparison study was the estimation of the downwelling irradiance spectrum just beneath the sea surface, E(sub d)(0(sup -), lambda); the upwelling nadir radiance just beneath the sea surface, L(sub u)(0(sup -), lambda); and the vertical profile of the diffuse attenuation coefficient spectrum, K(sub d)(z, lambda). In the results reported here, different methodologies from four research groups were applied to an identical set of 10 spectroradiometry casts in order to evaluate the degree to which data analysis methods influence AOP estimation, and whether any general improvements can be made. The overall results of DARR-94 are presented in Chapter 1 and the individual methods of the four groups are presented in Chapters 2-5. The DARR-94 results do not show a clear winner among data analysis methods evaluated. It is apparent, however, that some degree of outlier rejection is required in order to accurately estimate L(sub u)(0(sup -), lambda) or E(sub d)(0(sup -), lambda). Furthermore, the calculation, evaluation and exploitation of confidence intervals for the AOP determinations needs to be explored. That is, the SeaWiFS calibration and validation problem should be recast in statistical terms where the in situ AOP values are statistical estimates with known confidence intervals.

The choice of normative pediatric reference database changes spine bone mineral density Z-scores but not the relationship between bone mineral density and prevalent vertebral fractures.

PubMed

Ma, Jinhui; Siminoski, Kerry; Alos, Nathalie; Halton, Jacqueline; Ho, Josephine; Lentle, Brian; Matzinger, MaryAnn; Shenouda, Nazih; Atkinson, Stephanie; Barr, Ronald; Cabral, David A; Couch, Robert; Cummings, Elizabeth A; Fernandez, Conrad V; Grant, Ronald M; Rodd, Celia; Sbrocchi, Anne Marie; Scharke, Maya; Rauch, Frank; Ward, Leanne M

2015-03-01

Our objectives were to assess the magnitude of the disparity in lumbar spine bone mineral density (LSBMD) Z-scores generated by different reference databases and to evaluate whether the relationship between LSBMD Z-scores and vertebral fractures (VF) varies by choice of database. Children with leukemia underwent LSBMD by cross-calibrated dual-energy x-ray absorptiometry, with Z-scores generated according to Hologic and Lunar databases. VF were assessed by the Genant method on spine radiographs. Logistic regression was used to assess the association between fractures and LSBMD Z-scores. Net reclassification improvement and area under the receiver operating characteristic curve were calculated to assess the predictive accuracy of LSBMD Z-scores for VF. For the 186 children from 0 to 18 years of age, 6 different age ranges were studied. The Z-scores generated for the 0 to 18 group were highly correlated (r ≥ 0.90), but the proportion of children with LSBMD Z-scores ≤-2.0 among those with VF varied substantially (from 38-66%). Odds ratios (OR) for the association between LSBMD Z-score and VF were similar regardless of database (OR = 1.92, 95% confidence interval 1.44, 2.56 to OR = 2.70, 95% confidence interval 1.70, 4.28). Area under the receiver operating characteristic curve and net reclassification improvement ranged from 0.71 to 0.75 and -0.15 to 0.07, respectively. Although the use of a LSBMD Z-score threshold as part of the definition of osteoporosis in a child with VF does not appear valid, the study of relationships between BMD and VF is valid regardless of the BMD database that is used.

Utility of biochemical verification of tobacco cessation in the Department of Veterans Affairs.

PubMed

Noonan, Devon; Jiang, Yunyun; Duffy, Sonia A

2013-03-01

Research on the validity of self-report tobacco use has varied by the population studied and has yet to be examined among smokers serviced by the Department of Veterans Affairs (VA). The purpose of this study was to determine the predictors of returning a biochemical urine test and the specificity and sensitivity of self-reported tobacco use status compared to biochemical verification. This was a sub-analysis of the larger Tobacco Tactics research study, a pre-/post-non-randomized control design study to implement and evaluate a smoking cessation intervention in three large VA hospitals. Inpatient smokers completed baseline demographic, health history and tobacco use measures. Patients were sent a follow-up survey at six-months to assess tobacco use and urine cotinine levels. A total of 645 patients returned six-month surveys of which 578 also returned a urinary cotinine strip at six-months. Multivariate analysis of the predictors of return rate revealed those more likely to return biochemical verification of their smoking status were younger, more likely to be thinking about quitting smoking, have arthritis, and less likely to have heart disease. The sensitivity and specificity of self-report tobacco use were 97% (95% confidence interval=0.95-0.98) and 93% (95% confidence interval=0.84-0.98) respectively. The misclassification rate among self-reported quitters was 21%. The misclassification rate among self-reported tobacco users was 1%. The sensitivity and specificity of self-report tobacco use were high among veteran smokers, yet among self-report quitters that misclassification rate was high at 21% suggesting that validating self-report tobacco measures is warranted in future studies especially in populations that are prone to misclassification. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Validation of STA-Liatest D-Di assay for exclusion of pulmonary embolism according to the latest Clinical and Laboratory Standard Institute/Food and Drug Administration guideline. Results of a multicenter management study.

PubMed

Pernod, Gilles; Wu, Haifeng; de Maistre, Emmanuel; Lazarchick, John; Kassis, Jeannine; Aguilar, Carlos; Vera, Pascual M; Palareti, Gualtiero; D'Angelo, Armando

2017-04-01

: Combined clinical pretest probability (PTP) and D-dimer testing have great diagnostic value for pulmonary embolism exclusion. To harmonize performance levels of D-dimer assays available on the market, the Clinical and Laboratory Standard Institute (CLSI) has published a guideline, endorsed by the US Food and Drug Administration (FDA). Such guideline specifies the ideal D-dimer assay characteristic and target population. This study was conducted following the CLSI guideline to upgrade the assay-intended use and obtain FDA clearance of STA-Liatest D-Di assay for pulmonary embolism exclusion in patient with low/moderate PTP. This was an international, multicenter, prospective nonrandomized, noninterventional clinical outcome management study conducted in a standard of care setting. D-dimer assay was performed in consecutive, ambulatory outpatients suspected of pulmonary embolism, with low/moderate PTP, and without medical conditions or in clinical settings known to alter default D-dimer values regardless of the presence of thrombosis using a threshold of 0.5 μg/ml (fibrinogen equivalent units) for venous thromboembolism exclusion. Results were used to determine test performance. Of 1141 patients who underwent D-dimer testing, 1060 had valid results and completed study as planned. STA-Liatest D-Di assay performance has exceeded the CLSI/FDA guidance requirements, with a sensitivity of 97.6% (95% confidence interval: 91.7-99.7%) and a negative predictive value of 99.7% (95% confidence interval: 99.0-100%). STA-Liatest D-Di assay has an excellent performance when used in combination with a PTP score in relevant patients and has the potential to minimize the economic healthcare burden avoiding unnecessary and expensive imaging tests.

Systemic Inflammation-Based Biomarkers and Survival in HIV-Positive Subject With Solid Cancer in an Italian Multicenter Study.

PubMed

Raffetti, Elena; Donato, Francesco; Pezzoli, Chiara; Digiambenedetto, Simona; Bandera, Alessandra; Di Pietro, Massimo; Di Filippo, Elisa; Maggiolo, Franco; Sighinolfi, Laura; Fornabaio, Chiara; Castelnuovo, Filippo; Ladisa, Nicoletta; Castelli, Francesco; Quiros Roldan, Eugenia

2015-08-15

Recently, some systemic inflammation-based biomarkers have been demonstrated useful for predicting risk of death in patients with solid cancer independently of tumor characteristics. This study aimed to investigate the prognostic role of systemic inflammation-based biomarkers in HIV-infected patients with solid tumors and to propose a risk score for mortality in these subjects. Clinical and pathological data on solid AIDS-defining cancer (ADC) and non-AIDS-defining cancer (NADC), diagnosed between 1998 and 2012 in an Italian cohort, were analyzed. To evaluate the prognostic role of systemic inflammation- and nutrition-based markers, univariate and multivariable Cox regression models were applied. To compute the risk score equation, the patients were randomly assigned to a derivation and a validation sample. A total of 573 patients (76.3% males) with a mean age of 46.2 years (SD = 10.3) were enrolled. 178 patients died during a median of 3.2 years of follow-up. For solid NADCs, elevated Glasgow Prognostic Score, modified Glasgow Prognostic Score, neutrophil/lymphocyte ratio, platelet/lymphocyte ratio, and Prognostic Nutritional Index were independently associated with risk of death; for solid ADCs, none of these markers was associated with risk of death. For solid NADCs, we computed a mortality risk score on the basis of age at cancer diagnosis, intravenous drug use, and Prognostic Nutritional Index. The areas under the receiver operating characteristic curve were 0.67 (95% confidence interval: 0.58 to 0.75) in the derivation sample and 0.66 (95% confidence interval: 0.54 to 0.79) in the validation sample. Inflammatory biomarkers were associated with risk of death in HIV-infected patients with solid NADCs but not with ADCs.

Reliability and validity of DS-ADHD: A decision support system on attention deficit hyperactivity disorders.

PubMed

Chu, Kuo-Chung; Huang, Yu-Shu; Tseng, Chien-Fu; Huang, Hsin-Jou; Wang, Chih-Huan; Tai, Hsin-Yi

2017-03-01

The purpose of this study is to examine the reliability of the clinical use of the self-built decision support system, diagnosis-supported attention deficit hyperactivity disorder (DS-ADHD), in an effort to develop the DS-ADHD system, by probing into the development of indicating patterns of past screening support systems for ADHD. The study collected data based on 107 subjects, who were divided into two groups, non-ADHD and ADHD, based on the doctor's determination, using the DSM-IV diagnostic standards. The two groups then underwent Test of Variables of Attention (TOVA) and DS-ADHD testing. The survey and testing results underwent one-way ANOVA and split-half method statistical analysis, in order to further understand whether there were any differences between the DS-ADHD and the identification tools used in today's clinical trials. The results of the study are as follows: 1) The ROC area between the TOVA and the clinical identification rate is 0.787 (95% confidence interval: 0.701-0.872); 2) The ROC area between the DS-ADHD and the clinical identification rate is 0.867 (95% confidence interval: 0.801-0.933). The study results show that DS-ADHD has the characteristics of screening for ADHD, based on its reliability and validity. It does not display any statistical differences when compared with TOVA systems that are currently on the market. However, the system is more effective and the accuracy rate is better than TOVA. It is a good tool to screen ADHD not only in Chinese children, but also in western country. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

A scoring model for predicting advanced colorectal neoplasia in a screened population of asymptomatic Japanese individuals.

PubMed

Sekiguchi, Masau; Kakugawa, Yasuo; Matsumoto, Minori; Matsuda, Takahisa

2018-01-22

Risk stratification of screened populations could help improve colorectal cancer (CRC) screening. Use of the modified Asia-Pacific Colorectal Screening (APCS) score has been proposed in the Asia-Pacific region. This study was performed to build a new useful scoring model for CRC screening. Data were reviewed from 5218 asymptomatic Japanese individuals who underwent their first screening colonoscopy. Multivariate logistic regression was used to investigate risk factors for advanced colorectal neoplasia (ACN), and a new scoring model for the prediction of ACN was developed based on the results. The discriminatory capability of the new model and the modified APCS score were assessed and compared. Internal validation was also performed. ACN was detected in 225 participants. An 8-point scoring model for the prediction of ACN was developed using five independent risk factors for ACN (male sex, higher age, presence of two or more first-degree relatives with CRC, body mass index of > 22.5 kg/m 2 , and smoking history of > 18.5 pack-years). The prevalence of ACN was 1.6% (34/2172), 5.3% (127/2419), and 10.2% (64/627) in participants with scores of < 3, ≥ 3 to < 5, and ≥ 5, respectively. The c-statistic of the scoring model was 0.70 (95% confidence interval, 0.67-0.73) in both the development and internal validation sets, and this value was higher than that of the modified APCS score [0.68 (95% confidence interval, 0.65-0.71), P = 0.03]. We built a new simple scoring model for prediction of ACN in a Japanese population that could stratify the screened population into low-, moderate-, and high-risk groups.

Acromegaly incidence, prevalence, complications and long-term prognosis: a nationwide cohort study.

PubMed

Dal, Jakob; Feldt-Rasmussen, Ulla; Andersen, Marianne; Kristensen, Lars Ø; Laurberg, Peter; Pedersen, Lars; Dekkers, Olaf M; Sørensen, Henrik Toft; Jørgensen, Jens Otto L

2016-09-01

Valid data on acromegaly incidence, complications and mortality are scarce. The Danish Health Care System enables nationwide studies with complete follow-up and linkage among health-related databases to assess acromegaly incidence, prevalence, complications and mortality in a population-based cohort study. All incident cases of acromegaly in Denmark (1991-2010) were identified from health registries and validated by chart review. We estimated the annual incidence rate of acromegaly per 10(6) person-years (py) with 95% confidence intervals (95% CIs). For every patient, 10 persons were sampled from the general population as a comparison cohort. Cox regression and hazard ratios (HRs) with 95% confidence intervals (95% CIs) were used. Mean age at diagnosis (48.7 years (CI: 95%: 47.2-50.1)) and annual incidence rate (3.8 cases/10(6) persons (95% CI: 3.6-4.1)) among the 405 cases remained stable. The prevalence in 2010 was 85 cases/10(6) persons. The patients were at increased risk of diabetes mellitus (HR: 4.0 (95% CI: 2.7-5.8)), heart failure (HR: 2.5 (95% CI: 1.4-4.5)), venous thromboembolism (HR: 2.3 (95% CI: 1.1-5.0)), sleep apnoea (HR: 11.7 (95% CI: 7.0-19.4)) and arthropathy (HR: 2.1 (95% CI: 1.6-2.6)). The complication risk was also increased before the diagnosis of acromegaly. Overall mortality risk was elevated (HR: 1.3 (95% CI: 1.0-1.7)) but uninfluenced by treatment modality. (i) The incidence rate and age at diagnosis of acromegaly have been stable over decades, and the prevalence is higher than previously reported. (ii) The risk of complications is very high even before the diagnosis. (iii) Mortality risk remains elevated but uninfluenced by mode of treatment. © 2016 European Society of Endocrinology.

Updated postlicensure surveillance of the meningococcal C conjugate vaccine in England and Wales: effectiveness, validation of serological correlates of protection, and modeling predictions of the duration of herd immunity.

PubMed

Campbell, Helen; Andrews, Nick; Borrow, Ray; Trotter, Caroline; Miller, Elizabeth

2010-05-01

Meningococcal serogroup C conjugate (MCC) vaccines were licensed in the United Kingdom more than 10 years ago based on correlates of protection that had previously been established for serogroup C-containing polysaccharide vaccines by using the serum bactericidal antibody (SBA) assay. These correlates of protection were subsequently validated against postlicensure estimates of observed vaccine effectiveness up to 7 to 9 months after the administration of the MCC vaccine. Vaccine effectiveness was, however, shown to fall significantly more than 1 year after the administration of a 3-dose course in infancy. Despite this finding, the marked impact on serogroup C disease has been sustained, with the lowest recorded incidence (0.02 case per 100,000 population) in the 2008-2009 epidemiological year, mainly due to the indirect herd immunity effect of the vaccine in reducing carriage. Updated estimates of vaccine effectiveness through 30 June 2009 confirmed high short-term protection after vaccination in infancy, at 97% (95% confidence interval [CI], 91% to 99%), falling to 68% (95% CI, -63% to 90%) more than a year after vaccination. The observed vaccine effectiveness more than 12 months postvaccination was consistent with measured declining SBA levels, but confidence intervals were imprecise; vaccine effectiveness estimates were consistent with SBA titers of 1:4 or 1:8 as correlates of long-term protection after a primary course in infants. Modeling suggested that protection against carriage persists for at least 3 years and predicted the stabilization of serogroup C disease at low levels (fewer than 50 cases per year) up to 2015-2016.

Association Between Alexithymia and Risk of Incident Cardiovascular Diseases in the SUpplémentation en VItamines et Minéraux AntioXydants (SU.VI.MAX) Cohort.

PubMed

Wiernik, Emmanuel; Lemogne, Cédric; Fezeu, Léopold; Arnault, Nathalie; Hercberg, Serge; Kesse-Guyot, Emmanuelle; Galan, Pilar

2018-06-01

Although it has been suggested that alexythymia is associated with cardiovascular diseases, studies are scarce and a causal relationship is questionable. This study explored the prospective association between alexithymia and cardiovascular events in middle-aged participants without cardiovascular history at baseline. The 26-item Toronto Alexithymia Scale (TAS-26) was completed by 5586 participants of the French SUpplémentation en VItamines et Minéraux AntioXydants cohort (41.4% of men, M [SD] age = 52.2 [6.3] years) in 1996-1997. Covariates measured at baseline included age, occupational status, depressive symptoms, smoking status, body mass index, hypertension, diabetes, hypercholesterolemia, and hypertriglyceridemia. The follow-up ran from January 1, 1998, to the date of the first cardiovascular event, the date of death or September 1, 2007, whichever occurred first. Cardiovascular events were validated by an independent expert committee. Hazard ratios and 95% confidence intervals were computed with Cox regressions. During an average of 8.9 years of follow-up, 171 first cardiovascular events were validated. After adjustment for age, sex, and occupational status, there was no association between baseline alexithymia and cardiovascular events at follow-up (hazard ratio [95% confidence interval] for 15 points of TAS-26 = 1.00 [0.81-1.23], p > .99). Adjusting for all covariates, using binary TAS-26 cut-offs or TAS-26 subscores yielded similar nonsignificant results. In this large prospective study, alexithymia and cardiovascular events were not associated among a nonclinical population. This casts some doubt on whether alexithymia could be a meaningful target in the prevention of cardiovascular diseases. Clinicaltrials.gov (NCT00272428).

High sensitivity and specificity in proposed clinical diagnostic criteria for anti-N-methyl-D-aspartate receptor encephalitis.

PubMed

Ho, Alvin C C; Mohammad, Shekeeb S; Pillai, Sekhar C; Tantsis, Esther; Jones, Hannah; Ho, Reena; Lim, Ming; Hacohen, Yael; Vincent, Angela; Dale, Russell C

2017-12-01

To determine the validity of the proposed clinical diagnostic criteria for anti-N-methyl-d-aspartate receptor (NMDAR) encephalitis in paediatric patients. The diagnostic criteria for anti-NMDAR encephalitis proposed by Graus et al. (2016) use clinical features and conventional investigations to facilitate early immunotherapy before antibody status is available. The criteria are satisfied if patients develop four out of six symptom groups within 3 months, together with at least one abnormal investigation (electroencephalography/cerebrospinal fluid) and reasonable exclusion of other disorders. We evaluated the validity of the criteria using a retrospective cohort of paediatric patients with encephalitis. Twenty-nine patients with anti-NMDAR encephalitis and 74 comparison children with encephalitis were included. As expected, the percentage of patients with anti-NMDAR encephalitis who fulfilled the clinical criteria increased over time. During the hospital inpatient admission, most patients (26/29, 90%) with anti-NMDAR encephalitis fulfilled the criteria, significantly more than the comparison group (3/74, 4%) (p<0.001). The median time of fulfilling the criteria in patients with anti-NMDAR encephalitis was 2 weeks from first symptom onset (range 1-6). The sensitivity of the criteria was 90% (95% confidence interval 73-98) and the specificity was 96% (95% confidence interval 89-99). The proposed diagnostic criteria for anti-NMDAR encephalitis have good sensitivity and specificity. Incomplete criteria do not exclude the diagnosis. The proposed clinical diagnostic criteria for anti-N-methyl-d-aspartate receptor (NMDAR) encephalitis by Graus et al. (2016) have high sensitivity and specificity in paediatric patients. The median time of fulfilling the criteria in patients with anti-NMDAR was 2 weeks from first symptom onset. © 2017 Mac Keith Press.

Measuring the anaesthesia clinical learning environment at the department level is feasible and reliable.

PubMed

Castanelli, D J; Smith, N A

2017-05-01

The learning environment describes the context and culture in which trainees learn. In order to establish the feasibility and reliability of measuring the anaesthetic learning environment in individual departments we implemented a previously developed instrument in hospitals across New South Wales. We distributed the instrument to trainees from 25 anaesthesia departments and supplied summarized results to individual departments. Exploratory and confirmatory factor analyses were performed to assess internal structure validity and generalizability theory was used to calculate reliability. The number of trainees required for acceptable precision in results was determined using the standard error of measurement. We received 172 responses (59% response rate). Suitable internal structure validity was confirmed. Measured reliability was acceptable (G-coefficient 0.69) with nine trainees per department. Eight trainees were required for a 95% confidence interval of plus or minus 0.25 in the mean total score. Eight trainees as assessors also allow a 95% confidence interval of approximately plus or minus 0.3 in the subscale mean scores. Results for individual departments varied, with scores below the expected level recorded on individual subscales, particularly the 'teaching' subscale. Our results confirm that, using this instrument, individual departments can obtain acceptable precision in results with achievable trainee numbers. Additionally, with the exception of departments with few trainees, implementation proved feasible across a training region. Repeated use would allow departments or accrediting bodies to monitor their individual learning environment and the impact of changes such as the introduction of new curricular elements, or local initiatives to improve trainee experience. © The Author 2017. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the British Journal of Anaesthesia. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please email: journals.permissions@oup.com

Updated Postlicensure Surveillance of the Meningococcal C Conjugate Vaccine in England and Wales: Effectiveness, Validation of Serological Correlates of Protection, and Modeling Predictions of the Duration of Herd Immunity ▿

PubMed Central

Campbell, Helen; Andrews, Nick; Borrow, Ray; Trotter, Caroline; Miller, Elizabeth

2010-01-01

Meningococcal serogroup C conjugate (MCC) vaccines were licensed in the United Kingdom more than 10 years ago based on correlates of protection that had previously been established for serogroup C-containing polysaccharide vaccines by using the serum bactericidal antibody (SBA) assay. These correlates of protection were subsequently validated against postlicensure estimates of observed vaccine effectiveness up to 7 to 9 months after the administration of the MCC vaccine. Vaccine effectiveness was, however, shown to fall significantly more than 1 year after the administration of a 3-dose course in infancy. Despite this finding, the marked impact on serogroup C disease has been sustained, with the lowest recorded incidence (0.02 case per 100,000 population) in the 2008-2009 epidemiological year, mainly due to the indirect herd immunity effect of the vaccine in reducing carriage. Updated estimates of vaccine effectiveness through 30 June 2009 confirmed high short-term protection after vaccination in infancy, at 97% (95% confidence interval [CI], 91% to 99%), falling to 68% (95% CI, −63% to 90%) more than a year after vaccination. The observed vaccine effectiveness more than 12 months postvaccination was consistent with measured declining SBA levels, but confidence intervals were imprecise; vaccine effectiveness estimates were consistent with SBA titers of 1:4 or 1:8 as correlates of long-term protection after a primary course in infants. Modeling suggested that protection against carriage persists for at least 3 years and predicted the stabilization of serogroup C disease at low levels (fewer than 50 cases per year) up to 2015-2016. PMID:20219881

Pneumothorax size measurements on digital chest radiographs: Intra- and inter- rater reliability.

PubMed

Thelle, Andreas; Gjerdevik, Miriam; Grydeland, Thomas; Skorge, Trude D; Wentzel-Larsen, Tore; Bakke, Per S

2015-10-01

Detailed and reliable methods may be important for discussions on the importance of pneumothorax size in clinical decision-making. Rhea's method is widely used to estimate pneumothorax size in percent based on chest X-rays (CXRs) from three measure points. Choi's addendum is used for anterioposterior projections. The aim of this study was to examine the intrarater and interrater reliability of the Rhea and Choi method using digital CXR in the ward based PACS monitors. Three physicians examined a retrospective series of 80 digital CXRs showing pneumothorax, using Rhea and Choi's method, then repeated in a random order two weeks later. We used the analysis of variance technique by Eliasziw et al. to assess the intrarater and interrater reliability in altogether 480 estimations of pneumothorax size. Estimated pneumothorax sizes ranged between 5% and 100%. The intrarater reliability coefficient was 0.98 (95% one-sided lower-limit confidence interval C 0.96), and the interrater reliability coefficient was 0.95 (95% one-sided lower-limit confidence interval 0.93). This study has shown that the Rhea and Choi method for calculating pneumothorax size has high intrarater and interrater reliability. These results are valid across gender, side of pneumothorax and whether the patient is diagnosed with primary or secondary pneumothorax. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

Developing a Pictorial Sisterhood Method in collaboration with illiterate Maasai traditional birth attendants in northern Tanzania.

PubMed

Roggeveen, Yadira; Schreuder, Renske; Zweekhorst, Marjolein; Manyama, Mange; Hatfield, Jennifer; Scheele, Fedde; van Roosmalen, Jos

2016-10-01

To study whether data on maternal mortality can be gathered while maintaining local ownership of data in a pastoralist setting where a scarcity of data sources and a culture of silence around maternal death amplifies limited awareness of the magnitude of maternal mortality. As part of a participatory action research project, investigators and illiterate traditional birth attendants (TBAs) collaboratively developed a quantitative participatory tool-the Pictorial Sisterhood Method-that was pilot-tested between March 12 and May 30, 2011, by researchers and TBAs in a cross-sectional study. Fourteen TBAs interviewed 496 women (sample), which led to 2241 sister units of risk and a maternal mortality ratio of 689 deaths per 100000 live births (95% confidence interval 419-959). Researchers interviewed 474 women (sample), leading to 1487 sister units of risk and a maternal mortality ratio of 484 (95% confidence interval 172-795). The Pictorial Sisterhood Method is an innovative application that might increase the participation of illiterate individuals in maternal health research and advocacy. It offers interesting opportunities to increase maternal mortality data ownership and awareness, and warrants further study and validation. Copyright © 2016 International Federation of Gynecology and Obstetrics. Published by Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

Using Procedure Codes to Define Radiation Toxicity in Administrative Data: The Devil is in the Details.

PubMed

Meyer, Anne-Marie; Kuo, Tzy-Mey; Chang, YunKyung; Carpenter, William R; Chen, Ronald C; Sturmer, Til

2017-05-01

Systematic coding systems are used to define clinically meaningful outcomes when leveraging administrative claims data for research. How and when these codes are applied within a research study can have implications for the study validity and their specificity can vary significantly depending on treatment received. Data are from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results-Medicare linked dataset. We use propensity score methods in a retrospective cohort of prostate cancer patients first examined in a recently published radiation oncology comparative effectiveness study. With the narrowly defined outcome definition, the toxicity event outcome rate ratio was 0.88 per 100 person-years (95% confidence interval, 0.71-1.08). With the broadly defined outcome, the rate ratio was comparable, with 0.89 per 100 person-years (95% confidence interval, 0.76-1.04), although individual event rates were doubled. Some evidence of surveillance bias was suggested by a higher rate of endoscopic procedures the first year of follow-up in patients who received proton therapy compared with those receiving intensity-modulated radiation treatment (11.15 vs. 8.90, respectively). This study demonstrates the risk of introducing bias through subjective application of procedure codes. Careful consideration is required when using procedure codes to define outcomes in administrative data.

Unmanned aerial vehicle-based structure from motion biomass inventory estimates

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bedell, Emily; Leslie, Monique; Fankhauser, Katie; Burnett, Jonathan; Wing, Michael G.; Thomas, Evan A.

2017-04-01

Riparian vegetation restoration efforts require cost-effective, accurate, and replicable impact assessments. We present a method to use an unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV) equipped with a GoPro digital camera to collect photogrammetric data of a 0.8-ha riparian restoration. A three-dimensional point cloud was created from the photos using "structure from motion" techniques. The point cloud was analyzed and compared to traditional, ground-based monitoring techniques. Ground-truth data were collected on 6.3% of the study site and averaged across the entire site to report stem heights in stems/ha in three height classes. The project site was divided into four analysis sections, one for derivation of parameters used in the UAV data analysis and the remaining three sections reserved for method validation. Comparing the ground-truth data to the UAV generated data produced an overall error of 21.6% and indicated an R2 value of 0.98. A Bland-Altman analysis indicated a 95% probability that the UAV stems/section result will be within 61 stems/section of the ground-truth data. The ground-truth data are reported with an 80% confidence interval of ±1032 stems/ha thus, the UAV was able to estimate stems well within this confidence interval.

Maternal dietary fat intake in association with autism spectrum disorders.

PubMed

Lyall, Kristen; Munger, Kassandra L; O'Reilly, Éilis J; Santangelo, Susan L; Ascherio, Alberto

2013-07-15

Our goal in this study was to determine whether maternal fat intake before or during pregnancy was associated with risk of autism spectrum disorder (ASD) in the offspring. Our primary analysis included 317 mothers who reported a child with ASD and 17,728 comparison mothers from the Nurses' Health Study II (index births in 1991-2007). Dietary information was collected prospectively through a validated food frequency questionnaire. Binomial regression was used to estimate crude and adjusted risk ratios. Maternal intake of linoleic acid was significantly inversely associated with ASD risk in offspring, corresponding to a 34% reduction in risk in the highest versus lowest quartiles of intake. Mothers in the lowest 5% of ω-3 fatty acid intake had a significant increase in offspring ASD risk as compared with the remaining distribution (risk ratio = 1.53, 95% confidence interval: 1.00, 2.32); this association was also seen in the subgroup of women (86 cases and 5,798 noncases) for whom dietary information during pregnancy was available (risk ratio = 2.42, 95% confidence interval: 1.19, 4.91). Thus, variations in intake of polyunsaturated fats within the range commonly observed among US women could affect fetal brain development and ASD risk. Because the number of women with diet assessed during pregnancy was small, however, these results should be interpreted cautiously.

Increasing the reliability of the fluid/crystallized difference score from the Kaufman Adolescent and Adult Intelligence Test with reliable component analysis.

PubMed

Caruso, J C

2001-06-01

The unreliability of difference scores is a well documented phenomenon in the social sciences and has led researchers and practitioners to interpret differences cautiously, if at all. In the case of the Kaufman Adult and Adolescent Intelligence Test (KAIT), the unreliability of the difference between the Fluid IQ and the Crystallized IQ is due to the high correlation between the two scales. The consequences of the lack of precision with which differences are identified are wide confidence intervals and unpowerful significance tests (i.e., large differences are required to be declared statistically significant). Reliable component analysis (RCA) was performed on the subtests of the KAIT in order to address these problems. RCA is a new data reduction technique that results in uncorrelated component scores with maximum proportions of reliable variance. Results indicate that the scores defined by RCA have discriminant and convergent validity (with respect to the equally weighted scores) and that differences between the scores, derived from a single testing session, were more reliable than differences derived from equal weighting for each age group (11-14 years, 15-34 years, 35-85+ years). This reliability advantage results in narrower confidence intervals around difference scores and smaller differences required for statistical significance.

Yearly and perhaps transyearly human natality patterns near the equator and at higher latitudes

PubMed Central

Cornélissen, G.; Halberg, F.; Mikulecky, M.; Florida, P.; Faraone, P.; Yamanaka, T.; Murakami, S.; Otsuka, K.; Bakken, E. E.

2008-01-01

Data on the daily numbers of births in Davao, Philippines, available from 1993 to 2003 are re-analyzed herein by linear–nonlinear rhythmometry, as are data from Italy and Japan. A transyear, characterizing the solar wind and other non-photic physical environmental factors, corresponds to a spectral peak of the near-equatorial natality series. This component with a period of about 1.3 years is found to have an amplitude larger than the calendar year, the amplitude ratio being 134%. Whereas the transyear is validated nonlinearly, the 95% confidence interval for the period extending from 1.21 to 1.38 years and the 95% confidence interval for the amplitude not overlapping zero (P < 0.05), the annual variation is only demonstrable by linear least squares analysis. The results bring added evidence for an influence of non-photic environmental effects on human physiology, in this case data collected near the equatorial region, Davao being situated at 7°N, 126°E. They are in keeping with some degree of generality of a rule of reciprocity among mutually supporting physical and biological periodicities. They do not detract from the fact that in other longer data sets at higher latitudes, the calendar year, presumably reflecting climatic influences, dominates the spectrum. PMID:16275480

Vaccination Confidence and Parental Refusal/Delay of Early Childhood Vaccines

PubMed Central

Gilkey, Melissa B.; McRee, Annie-Laurie; Magnus, Brooke E.; Reiter, Paul L.; Dempsey, Amanda F.; Brewer, Noel T.

2016-01-01

Objective To support efforts to address parental hesitancy towards early childhood vaccination, we sought to validate the Vaccination Confidence Scale using data from a large, population-based sample of U.S. parents. Methods We used weighted data from 9,354 parents who completed the 2011 National Immunization Survey. Parents reported on the immunization history of a 19- to 35-month-old child in their households. Healthcare providers then verified children’s vaccination status for vaccines including measles, mumps, and rubella (MMR), varicella, and seasonal flu. We used separate multivariable logistic regression models to assess associations between parents’ mean scores on the 8-item Vaccination Confidence Scale and vaccine refusal, vaccine delay, and vaccination status. Results A substantial minority of parents reported a history of vaccine refusal (15%) or delay (27%). Vaccination confidence was negatively associated with refusal of any vaccine (odds ratio [OR] = 0.58, 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.54–0.63) as well as refusal of MMR, varicella, and flu vaccines specifically. Negative associations between vaccination confidence and measures of vaccine delay were more moderate, including delay of any vaccine (OR = 0.81, 95% CI, 0.76–0.86). Vaccination confidence was positively associated with having received vaccines, including MMR (OR = 1.53, 95% CI, 1.40–1.68), varicella (OR = 1.54, 95% CI, 1.42–1.66), and flu vaccines (OR = 1.32, 95% CI, 1.23–1.42). Conclusions Vaccination confidence was consistently associated with early childhood vaccination behavior across multiple vaccine types. Our findings support expanding the application of the Vaccination Confidence Scale to measure vaccination beliefs among parents of young children. PMID:27391098

Cancer-related Concerns of Spouses of Women with Breast Cancer

PubMed Central

Fletcher, Kristin A.; Lewis, Frances Marcus; Haberman, Mel R.

2009-01-01

Objective To describe spouses' reported cancer-related demands attributed to their wife's breast cancer and to test the construct and predictive validity of a brief standardized measure of these demands. Methods Cross-sectional and longitudinal data were obtained from 151 spouses of women newly diagnosed with non-metastatic breast cancer. Descriptive statistics were computed to describe spouses' dominant cancer-related demands and multivariate regression analyses tested the construct and predictive validity of the standardized measure. Results Five categories of spouses' cancer-related demands were identified, such as concerns about: spouses' own functioning; wife's well being and response to treatment; couples' sexual activities; the family's and children's well-being; and the spouses' role in supporting their wives. A 33-item short version of the standardized measure of cancer demands demonstrated construct and predictive validity that was comparable to a 123-item version of the same questionnaire. Greater numbers of illness demands occurred when spouses were more depressed and had less confidence in their ability to manage the impact of the cancer (F=18.08 (3, 103), p<.001). Predictive validity was established by the short form's ability to significantly predict the quality of marital communication and spouses' self-efficacy at a two-month interval. Conclusion The short-version of the standardized measure of cancer-related demands shows promise for future application in clinic settings. Additional testing of the questionnaire is warranted. Spouses' breast cancer-related demands deserve attention by providers. In the absence of assisting them, spouses' illness pressures have deleterious consequences for the quality of marital communication and spouses' self-confidence. PMID:20014184

Comparison of WBRT alone, SRS alone, and their combination in the treatment of one or more brain metastases: Review and meta-analysis.

PubMed

Khan, Muhammad; Lin, Jie; Liao, Guixiang; Li, Rong; Wang, Baiyao; Xie, Guozhu; Zheng, Jieling; Yuan, Yawei

2017-07-01

Whole brain radiotherapy has been a standard treatment of brain metastases. Stereotactic radiosurgery provides more focal and aggressive radiation and normal tissue sparing but worse local and distant control. This meta-analysis was performed to assess and compare the effectiveness of whole brain radiotherapy alone, stereotactic radiosurgery alone, and their combination in the treatment of brain metastases based on randomized controlled trial studies. Electronic databases (PubMed, MEDLINE, Embase, and Cochrane Library) were searched to identify randomized controlled trial studies that compared treatment outcome of whole brain radiotherapy and stereotactic radiosurgery. This meta-analysis was performed using the Review Manager (RevMan) software (version 5.2) that is provided by the Cochrane Collaboration. The data used were hazard ratios with 95% confidence intervals calculated for time-to-event data extracted from survival curves and local tumor control rate curves. Odds ratio with 95% confidence intervals were calculated for dichotomous data, while mean differences with 95% confidence intervals were calculated for continuous data. Fixed-effects or random-effects models were adopted according to heterogeneity. Five studies (n = 763) were included in this meta-analysis meeting the inclusion criteria. All the included studies were randomized controlled trials. The sample size ranged from 27 to 331. In total 202 (26%) patients with whole brain radiotherapy alone, 196 (26%) patients receiving stereotactic radiosurgery alone, and 365 (48%) patients were in whole brain radiotherapy plus stereotactic radiosurgery group. No significant survival benefit was observed for any treatment approach; hazard ratio was 1.19 (95% confidence interval: 0.96-1.43, p = 0.12) based on three randomized controlled trials for whole brain radiotherapy only compared to whole brain radiotherapy plus stereotactic radiosurgery and hazard ratio was 1.03 (95% confidence interval: 0.82-1.29, p = 0.81) for stereotactic radiosurgery only compared to combined approach. Local control was best achieved when whole brain radiotherapy was combined with stereotactic radiosurgery. Hazard ratio 2.05 (95% confidence interval: 1.36-3.09, p = 0.0006) and hazard ratio 1.84 (95% confidence interval: 1.26-2.70, p = 0.002) were obtained from comparing whole brain radiotherapy only and stereotactic radiosurgery only to whole brain radiotherapy + stereotactic radiosurgery, respectively. No difference in adverse events for treatment difference; odds ratio 1.16 (95% confidence interval: 0.77-1.76, p = 0.48) and odds ratio 0.92 (95% confidence interval: 0.59-1.42, p = 71) for whole brain radiotherapy + stereotactic radiosurgery versus whole brain radiotherapy only and whole brain radiotherapy + stereotactic radiosurgery versus stereotactic radiosurgery only, respectively. Adding stereotactic radiosurgery to whole brain radiotherapy provides better local control as compared to whole brain radiotherapy only and stereotactic radiosurgery only with no difference in radiation related toxicities.

Maternal and neonatal outcomes after bariatric surgery; a systematic review and meta-analysis: do the benefits outweigh the risks?

PubMed

Kwong, Wilson; Tomlinson, George; Feig, Denice S

2018-02-15

Obesity during pregnancy is associated with a number of adverse obstetric outcomes that include gestational diabetes mellitus, macrosomia, and preeclampsia. Increasing evidence shows that bariatric surgery may decrease the risk of these outcomes. Our aim was to evaluate the benefits and risks of bariatric surgery in obese women according to obstetric outcomes. We performed a systematic literature search using MEDLINE, Embase, Cochrane, Web of Science, and PubMed from inception up to December 12, 2016. Studies were included if they evaluated patients who underwent bariatric surgery, reported subsequent pregnancy outcomes, and compared these outcomes with a control group. Two reviewers extracted study outcomes independently, and risk of bias was assessed with the use of the Newcastle-Ottawa Quality Assessment Scale. Pooled odds ratios for each outcome were estimated with the Dersimonian and Laird random effects model. After a review of 2616 abstracts, 20 cohort studies and approximately 2.8 million subjects (8364 of whom had bariatric surgery) were included in the metaanalysis. In our primary analysis, patients who underwent bariatric surgery showed reduced rates of gestational diabetes mellitus (odds ratio, 0.20; 95% confidence interval, 0.11-0.37, number needed to benefit, 5), large-for-gestational-age infants (odds ratio, 0.31; 95% confidence interval, 0.17-0.59; number needed to benefit, 6), gestational hypertension (odds ratio, 0.38; 95% confidence interval, 0.19-0.76; number needed to benefit, 11), all hypertensive disorders (odds ratio, 0.38; 95% confidence interval, 0.27-0.53; number needed to benefit, 8), postpartum hemorrhage (odds ratio, 0.32; 95% confidence interval, 0.08-1.37; number needed to benefit, 21), and caesarean delivery rates (odds ratio, 0.50; 95% confidence interval, 0.38-0.67; number needed to benefit, 9); however, group of patients showed an increase in small-for-gestational-age infants (odds ratio, 2.16; 95% confidence interval, 1.34-3.48; number needed to harm, 21), intrauterine growth restriction (odds ratio, 2.16; 95% confidence interval, 1.34-3.48; number needed to harm, 66), and preterm deliveries (odds ratio, 1.35; 95% confidence interval, 1.02-1.79; number needed to harm, 35) when compared with control subjects who were matched for presurgery body mass index. There were no differences in rates of preeclampsia, neonatal intensive care unit admissions, stillbirths, malformations, and neonatal death. Malabsorptive surgeries resulted in a greater increase in small-for-gestational-age infants (P=.0466) and a greater decrease in large-for-gestational-age infants (P=<.0001) compared with restrictive surgeries. There were no differences in outcomes when we used administrative databases vs clinical charts. Although bariatric surgery is associated with a reduction in the risk of several adverse obstetric outcomes, there is a potential for an increased risk of other important outcomes that should be considered when bariatric surgery is discussed with reproductive-age women. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Emergency Heart Failure Mortality Risk Grade score performance for 7-day mortality prediction in patients with heart failure attended at the emergency department: validation in a Spanish cohort.

PubMed

Gil, Víctor; Miró, Òscar; Schull, Michael J; Llorens, Pere; Herrero-Puente, Pablo; Jacob, Javier; Ríos, José; Lee, Douglas S; Martín-Sánchez, Francisco J

2018-06-01

The Emergency Heart Failure Mortality Risk Grade (EHMRG) scale, derived in 86 Canadian emergency departments (EDs), stratifies patients with acute-decompensated heart failure (ADHF) according to their 7-day mortality risk. We evaluated its external validity in a Spanish cohort. We applied the EHMRG scale to ADHF patients consecutively included in the Epidemiology of Acute Heart Failure in Emergency departments (EAHFE) registry (29 Spanish EDs) and measured its performance. Patients were distributed into quintiles according to the original and their self-defined score cutoffs. The 7-day mortality rates were compared internally among different categories and with categories of Canadian cohorts. The EAHFE group [n: 1553 patients; 80 (10) years; 55.6% women] had a 5.5% 7-day mortality rate and the EHMRG scale c-statistic was 0.741 (95% confidence interval: 0.688-0.793) compared with 0.807 (0.761-0.842) and 0.804 (0.763-0.840) obtained in the Canadian derivation and validation cohorts. The mortality rate of the EAHFE group mortality increased progressively as the quintile categories increased using intervals defined by either the Canadian or the Spanish EHMRG score cutoffs, although with more regular increments with the EAHFE-defined intervals; using the latter, patients at quintiles 2, 3, 4, 5a and 5b had (compared with quintile 1) odds ratios of 1.77, 3.36, 4.44, 9.39 and 16.19, respectively. The EHMRG scale stratified risk in an ADHF cohort that included both palliative and nonpalliative patients in Spanish EDs, showing an extrapolation to a higher mortality risk cohort than the original derivation sample. Stratification improved when the score was recalibrated in the Spanish cohort.

Coefficient Omega Bootstrap Confidence Intervals: Nonnormal Distributions

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Padilla, Miguel A.; Divers, Jasmin

2013-01-01

The performance of the normal theory bootstrap (NTB), the percentile bootstrap (PB), and the bias-corrected and accelerated (BCa) bootstrap confidence intervals (CIs) for coefficient omega was assessed through a Monte Carlo simulation under conditions not previously investigated. Of particular interests were nonnormal Likert-type and binary items.…

WASP (Write a Scientific Paper) using Excel - 6: Standard error and confidence interval.

PubMed

Grech, Victor

2018-03-01

The calculation of descriptive statistics includes the calculation of standard error and confidence interval, an inevitable component of data analysis in inferential statistics. This paper provides pointers as to how to do this in Microsoft Excel™. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Robust Confidence Interval for a Ratio of Standard Deviations

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Bonett, Douglas G.

2006-01-01

Comparing variability of test scores across alternate forms, test conditions, or subpopulations is a fundamental problem in psychometrics. A confidence interval for a ratio of standard deviations is proposed that performs as well as the classic method with normal distributions and performs dramatically better with nonnormal distributions. A simple…

The microcomputer scientific software series 2: general linear model--regression.

Treesearch

Harold M. Rauscher

1983-01-01

The general linear model regression (GLMR) program provides the microcomputer user with a sophisticated regression analysis capability. The output provides a regression ANOVA table, estimators of the regression model coefficients, their confidence intervals, confidence intervals around the predicted Y-values, residuals for plotting, a check for multicollinearity, a...

Toward Using Confidence Intervals to Compare Correlations

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Zou, Guang Yong

2007-01-01

Confidence intervals are widely accepted as a preferred way to present study results. They encompass significance tests and provide an estimate of the magnitude of the effect. However, comparisons of correlations still rely heavily on significance testing. The persistence of this practice is caused primarily by the lack of simple yet accurate…

Exercise during pregnancy in normal-weight women and risk of preterm birth: a systematic review and meta-analysis of randomized controlled trials.

PubMed

Di Mascio, Daniele; Magro-Malosso, Elena Rita; Saccone, Gabriele; Marhefka, Gregary D; Berghella, Vincenzo

2016-11-01

Preterm birth is the major cause of perinatal mortality in the United States. In the past, pregnant women have been recommended to not exercise because of presumed risks of preterm birth. Physical activity has been theoretically related to preterm birth because it increases the release of catecholamines, especially norepinephrine, which might stimulate myometrial activity. Conversely, exercise may reduce the risk of preterm birth by other mechanisms such as decreased oxidative stress or improved placenta vascularization. Therefore, the safety of exercise regarding preterm birth and its effects on gestational age at delivery remain controversial. The objective of the study was to evaluate the effects of exercise during pregnancy on the risk of preterm birth. MEDLINE, EMBASE, Web of Sciences, Scopus, ClinicalTrial.gov, OVID, and Cochrane Library were searched from the inception of each database to April 2016. Selection criteria included only randomized clinical trials of pregnant women randomized before 23 weeks to an aerobic exercise regimen or not. Types of participants included women of normal weight with uncomplicated, singleton pregnancies without any obstetric contraindication to physical activity. The summary measures were reported as relative risk or as mean difference with 95% confidence intervals. The primary outcome was the incidence of preterm birth <37 weeks. Of the 2059 women included in the meta-analysis, 1022 (49.6%) were randomized to the exercise group and 1037 (50.4%) to the control group. Aerobic exercise lasted about 35-90 minutes 3-4 times per week. Women who were randomized to aerobic exercise had a similar incidence of preterm birth of <37 weeks (4.5% vs 4.4%; relative risk, 1.01, 95% confidence interval, 0.68-1.50) and a similar mean gestational age at delivery (mean difference, 0.05 week, 95% confidence interval, -0.07 to 0.17) compared with controls. Women in the exercise group had a significantly higher incidence of vaginal delivery (73.6% vs 67.5%; relative risk, 1.09, 95% confidence interval, 1.04-1.15) and a significantly lower incidence of cesarean delivery (17.9% vs 22%; relative risk, 0.82, 95% confidence interval, 0.69-0.97) compared with controls. The incidence of operative vaginal delivery (12.9% vs 16.5%; relative risk, 0.78, 95% confidence interval, 0.61-1.01) was similar in both groups. Women in the exercise group had a significantly lower incidence of gestational diabetes mellitus (2.9% vs 5.6%; relative risk, 0.51, 95% confidence interval, 0.31-0.82) and a significantly lower incidence of hypertensive disorders (1.0% vs 5.6%; relative risk, 0.21, 95% confidence interval, 0.09-0.45) compared with controls. No differences in low birthweight (5.2% vs 4.7%; relative risk, 1.11, 95% confidence interval, 0.72-1.73) and mean birthweight (mean difference, -10.46 g, 95% confidence interval, -47.10 to 26.21) between the exercise group and controls were found. Aerobic exercise for 35-90 minutes 3-4 times per week during pregnancy can be safely performed by normal-weight women with singleton, uncomplicated gestations because this is not associated with an increased risk of preterm birth or with a reduction in mean gestational age at delivery. Exercise was associated with a significantly higher incidence of vaginal delivery and a significantly lower incidence of cesarean delivery, with a significantly lower incidence of gestational diabetes mellitus and hypertensive disorders and therefore should be encouraged. Copyright © 2016. Published by Elsevier Inc.

Plasma Concentrations and Dietary Intakes of Choline and Betaine in Association With Atrial Fibrillation Risk: Results From 3 Prospective Cohorts With Different Health Profiles.

PubMed

Zuo, Hui; Svingen, Gard F T; Tell, Grethe S; Ueland, Per M; Vollset, Stein E; Pedersen, Eva R; Ulvik, Arve; Meyer, Klaus; Nordrehaug, Jan E; Nilsen, Dennis W T; Bønaa, Kaare H; Nygård, Ottar

2018-04-12

Although choline metabolism has been associated with atherosclerotic heart disease, less research attention has been paid to the associations of choline and its oxidative metabolite betaine with cardiac arrhythmias. We evaluated associations of plasma concentrations and dietary intakes of choline and betaine with long-term atrial fibrillation (AF) risk in a community-based cohort, HUSK ([the Hordaland Health Study] n=6949), and validated the findings in 2 patient cohorts: the Western Norway Coronary Angiography Cohort (n=4164) and the NORVIT (Norwegian B-Vitamin) Trial (n=3733). Information on AF was obtained from the CVDNOR (Cardiovascular Disease in Norway) project. In HUSK, WECAC (Western Norway Coronary Angiography Cohort), and NORVIT, 552, 411, and 663 AF cases were identified during a median follow-up time of 10.9, 7.3, and, 8.7 years, respectively. Plasma concentrations of choline and betaine were significantly positively associated with later AF risk after multivariable adjustments in HUSK. Such associations were independently replicated in the 2 external prospective patient cohorts. The pooled hazard ratio was 1.13 (95% confidence interval 1.08-1.19, P <0.001) and 1.16 (95% confidence interval 1.10-1.22, P <0.001) per SD increment for log-transformed choline and betaine, respectively. Moreover, dietary intake of choline was marginally associated with AF risk (pooled hazard ratio 1.29, 95% confidence interval 1.01-1.66, fifth versus first quintile), whereas no significant association was observed between dietary betaine and AF risk. Our findings indicate that plasma concentrations as well as dietary intake of choline, but not betaine, are associated with subsequent risk of AF, suggesting a potential role of choline metabolism in the pathogenesis of AF. URL: https://www.clinicaltrials.gov.Unique identifier: NCT00671346. © 2018 The Authors. Published on behalf of the American Heart Association, Inc., by Wiley.

Depressive symptoms and smoking cessation after hospitalization for cardiovascular disease.

PubMed

Thorndike, Anne N; Regan, Susan; McKool, Kathleen; Pasternak, Richard C; Swartz, Susan; Torres-Finnerty, Nancy; Rigotti, Nancy A

2008-01-28

Although smoking cessation is essential for prevention of secondary cardiovascular disease (CVD), many smokers do not stop smoking after hospitalization. Mild depressive symptoms are common during hospitalization for CVD. We hypothesized that depressive symptoms measured during hospitalization for acute CVD would predict return to smoking after discharge from the hospital. This was a planned secondary analysis of data from a placebo-controlled, double-blind, randomized trial of bupropion hydrochloride therapy in 245 smokers hospitalized for acute CVD. All subjects received smoking counseling in the hospital and for 12 weeks after discharge. Depressive symptoms were measured during hospitalization with the Beck Depression Inventory (BDI), and smoking cessation was biochemically validated at 2-week, 12-week, and 1-year follow-up. The effect of depressive symptoms on smoking cessation was assessed using multiple logistic regression and survival analyses. Twenty-two percent of smokers had moderate to severe depressive symptoms (BDI >or= 16) during hospitalization. These smokers were more likely to resume smoking by 4 weeks after discharge (P= .007; incidence rate ratio, 2.40; 95% confidence interval, 1.48-3.78) than were smokers with lower BDI scores. Smokers with low BDI scores were more likely to remain abstinent than were those with high BDI scores at 3-month follow-up (37% vs 15%; adjusted odds ratio, 3.02; 95% confidence interval, 1.28-7.09) and 1-year follow-up (27% vs 10%; adjusted odds ratio, 3.77; 95% confidence interval, 1.31-10.82). We estimate that 27% of the effect of the BDI score on smoking cessation was mediated by nicotine withdrawal symptoms. Moderate to severe depressive symptoms during hospitalization for acute CVD are independently associated with rapid relapse to smoking after discharge and lower rates of smoking cessation at long-term follow-up. The relationship was mediated in part by the stronger nicotine withdrawal symptoms experienced by smokers with higher depressive symptoms.

PREDICT: a diagnostic accuracy study of a tool for predicting mortality within one year: who should have an advance healthcare directive?

PubMed

Richardson, Philip; Greenslade, Jaimi; Shanmugathasan, Sulochana; Doucet, Katherine; Widdicombe, Neil; Chu, Kevin; Brown, Anthony

2015-01-01

CARING is a screening tool developed to identify patients who have a high likelihood of death in 1 year. This study sought to validate a modified CARING tool (termed PREDICT) using a population of patients presenting to the Emergency Department. In total, 1000 patients aged over 55 years who were admitted to hospital via the Emergency Department between January and June 2009 were eligible for inclusion in this study. Data on the six prognostic indicators comprising PREDICT were obtained retrospectively from patient records. One-year mortality data were obtained from the State Death Registry. Weights were applied to each PREDICT criterion, and its final score ranged from 0 to 44. Receiver operator characteristic analyses and diagnostic accuracy statistics were used to assess the accuracy of PREDICT in identifying 1-year mortality. The sample comprised 976 patients with a median (interquartile range) age of 71 years (62-81 years) and a 1-year mortality of 23.4%. In total, 50% had ≥1 PREDICT criteria with a 1-year mortality of 40.4%. Receiver operator characteristic analysis gave an area under the curve of 0.86 (95% confidence interval: 0.83-0.89). Using a cut-off of 13 points, PREDICT had a 95.3% (95% confidence interval: 93.6-96.6) specificity and 53.9% (95% confidence interval: 47.5-60.3) sensitivity for predicting 1-year mortality. PREDICT was simpler than the CARING criteria and identified 158 patients per 1000 admitted who could benefit from advance care planning. PREDICT was successfully applied to the Australian healthcare system with findings similar to the original CARING study conducted in the United States. This tool could improve end-of-life care by identifying who should have advance care planning or an advance healthcare directive. © The Author(s) 2014.

Comparing the Use of 3D Photogrammetry and Computed Tomography in Assessing the Severity of Single-Suture Nonsyndromic Craniosynostosis

PubMed Central

Ho, Olivia A.; Saber, Nikoo; Stephens, Derek; Clausen, April; Drake, James; Forrest, Christopher

2017-01-01

Purpose: Single-suture nonsyndromic craniosynostosis is diagnosed using clinical assessment and computed tomography (CT). With increasing awareness of the associated risks of radiation exposure, the use of CT is particularly concerning in patients with craniosynostosis since they are exposed at a younger age and more frequently than the average child. Three-dimensional (3D) photogrammetry is advantageous—it involves no radiation, is conveniently obtainable within clinic, and does not require general anaesthesia. This study aims to assess how 3D photogrammetry compares to CT in the assessment of craniosynostosis severity, to quantify surgical outcomes, and analyze the validity of 3D photogrammetry in craniosynostosis. Methods: Computed tomography images and 3D photographs of patients who underwent craniosynostosis surgery were assessed and aligned to best fit. The intervening area between the CT and 3D photogrammetry curves at the supraorbital bar (bandeau) level in axial view was calculated. Statistical analysis was performed using Student t test. Ninety-five percent confidence intervals were determined and equivalence margins were applied. Results: In total, 41 pairs of CTs and 3D photographs were analyzed. The 95% confidence interval was 198.16 to 264.18 mm2 and the mean was 231.17 mm2. When comparisons were made in the same bandeau region omitting the temporalis muscle, the 95% confidence interval was 108.94 to 147.38 mm2, and the mean was 128.16 mm2. Although statistically significant difference between the modalities was found, they can be attributable to the dampening effect of soft tissue. Conclusion: Within certain error margins, 3D photogrammetry is comparable to CT in assessing the severity of single-suture nonsyndromic craniosynostosis. However, a dampening effect can be attributable to the soft tissue. Three-dimensional photogrammetry may be more applicable for severe cases of craniosynostosis but not milder deformity. It may also be beneficial for assessing the overall appearance and aesthetics but not for determining underlying bony severity. PMID:29026817

Significant association of RNF213 p.R4810K, a moyamoya susceptibility variant, with coronary artery disease.

PubMed

Morimoto, Takaaki; Mineharu, Yohei; Ono, Koh; Nakatochi, Masahiro; Ichihara, Sahoko; Kabata, Risako; Takagi, Yasushi; Cao, Yang; Zhao, Lanying; Kobayashi, Hatasu; Harada, Kouji H; Takenaka, Katsunobu; Funaki, Takeshi; Yokota, Mitsuhiro; Matsubara, Tatsuaki; Yamamoto, Ken; Izawa, Hideo; Kimura, Takeshi; Miyamoto, Susumu; Koizumi, Akio

2017-01-01

The genetic architecture of coronary artery disease has not been fully elucidated, especially in Asian countries. Moyamoya disease is a progressive cerebrovascular disease that is reported to be complicated by coronary artery disease. Because most Japanese patients with moyamoya disease carry the p.R4810K variant of the ring finger 213 gene (RNF213), this may also be a risk factor for coronary artery disease; however, this possibility has never been tested. We genotyped the RNF213 p.R4810K variant in 956 coronary artery disease patients and 716 controls and tested the association between p.R4810K and coronary artery disease. We also validated the association in an independent population of 311 coronary artery disease patients and 494 controls. In the replication study, the p.R4810K genotypes were imputed from genome-wide genotyping data based on the 1000 Genomes Project. We used multivariate logistic regression analyses to adjust for well-known risk factors such as dyslipidemia and smoking habits. In the primary study population, the frequency of the minor variant allele was significantly higher in patients with coronary artery disease than in controls (2.04% vs. 0.98%), with an odds ratio of 2.11 (p = 0.017). Under a dominant model, after adjustment for risk factors, the association remained significant, with an odds ratio of 2.90 (95% confidence interval: 1.37-6.61; p = 0.005). In the replication study, the association was significant after adjustment for age and sex (odds ratio = 4.99; 95% confidence interval: 1.16-21.53; p = 0.031), although it did not reach statistical significance when further adjusted for risk factors (odds ratio = 3.82; 95% confidence interval: 0.87-16.77; p = 0.076). The RNF213 p.R4810K variant appears to be significantly associated with coronary artery disease in the Japanese population.

Is motivation influenced by geomagnetic activity?

PubMed

Starbuck, S; Cornélissen, G; Halberg, F

2002-01-01

To eventually build a scientific bridge to religion by examining whether non-photic, non-thermic solar effects may influence (religious) motivation, invaluable yearly world wide data on activities from 1950 to 1999 by Jehovah's Witnesses on behalf of their church were analyzed chronobiologically. The time structure (chronome) of these archives, insofar as it is able to be evaluated in yearly means for up to half a century, was assessed. Least squares spectra in a frequency range from one cycle in 42 to one in 2.1 years of data on the average number of hours per month spent in work for the church, available from 103 different geographic locations, as well as grand totals also including other sites, revealed a large peak at one cycle in about 21 years. The non-linear least squares fit of a model consisting of a linear trend and a cosine curve with a trial period of 21.0 years, numerically approximating that of the Hale cycle, validated the about 21.0-year component in about 70% of the data series, with the non-overlap of zero by the 95% confidence interval of the amplitude estimate. Estimates of MESOR (midline-estimating statistic of rhythm, a rhythm (or chronome) adjusted mean), amplitude and period were further regressed with geomagnetic latitude. The period estimate did not depend on geomagnetic latitude. The about 21.0-year amplitude tends to be larger at low and middle than at higher latitudes and the resolution of the about 21.0-year cycle, gauged by the width of 95% confidence intervals for the period and amplitude, is higher (the 95% confidence intervals are statistically significantly smaller) at higher than at lower latitudes. Near-matches of periods in solar activity and human motivation hint that the former may influence the latter, while the dependence on latitude constitutes evidence that geomagnetic activity may affect certain brain areas involved in motivation, just as it was earlier found that it is associated with effects on the electrocardiogram and anthropometry.

A new method of sweat testing: the CF Quantum®sweat test.

PubMed

Rock, Michael J; Makholm, Linda; Eickhoff, Jens

2014-09-01

Conventional methods of sweat testing are time consuming and have many steps that can and do lead to errors. This study compares conventional sweat testing to a new quantitative method, the CF Quantum® (CFQT) sweat test. This study tests the diagnostic accuracy and analytic validity of the CFQT. Previously diagnosed CF patients and patients who required a sweat test for clinical indications were invited to have the CFQT test performed. Both conventional sweat testing and the CFQT were performed bilaterally on the same day. Pairs of data from each test are plotted as a correlation graph and Bland-Altman plot. Sensitivity and specificity were calculated as well as the means and coefficient of variation by test and by extremity. After completing the study, subjects or their parents were asked for their preference of the CFQT and conventional sweat testing. The correlation coefficient between the CFQT and conventional sweat testing was 0.98 (95% confidence interval: 0.97-0.99). The sensitivity and specificity of the CFQT in diagnosing CF was 100% (95% confidence interval: 94-100%) and 96% (95% confidence interval: 89-99%), respectively. In one center in this three center multicenter study, there were higher sweat chloride values in patients with CF and also more tests that were invalid due to discrepant values between the two extremities. The percentage of invalid tests was higher in the CFQT method (16.5%) compared to conventional sweat testing (3.8%) (p < 0.001). In the post-test questionnaire, 88% of subjects/parents preferred the CFQT test. The CFQT is a fast and simple method of quantitative sweat chloride determination. This technology requires further refinement to improve the analytic accuracy at higher sweat chloride values and to decrease the number of invalid tests. Copyright © 2014 European Cystic Fibrosis Society. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Acupuncture for smoking cessation.

PubMed

White, A R; Rampes, H; Ernst, E

2000-01-01

Acupuncture is promoted as a treatment for smoking cessation, and is believed to reduce withdrawal symptoms. The objective of this review is to determine the effectiveness of acupuncture in smoking cessation in comparison with: a) sham acupuncture b) other interventions c) no intervention. We searched the Cochrane Tobacco Addiction Group trials register, Medline, PsycLit, Dissertation Abstracts, Health Planning and Administration, Social SciSearch, Smoking & Health, Embase, Biological Abstracts and DRUG. Randomised trials comparing a form of acupuncture with either sham acupuncture, another intervention or no intervention for smoking cessation. We extracted data in duplicate on the type of subjects, the nature of the acupuncture and control procedures, the outcome measures, method of randomisation, and completeness of follow-up. We assessed abstinence from smoking at the earliest time-point (before 6 weeks), at six months and at one year follow-up in patients smoking at baseline. We used the most rigorous definition of abstinence for each trial, and biochemically validated rates if available. Those lost to follow-up were counted as continuing to smoke. Where appropriate, we performed meta-analysis using a fixed effects model. We identified 18 publications involving 20 comparisons. Acupuncture was not superior to sham acupuncture in smoking cessation at any time point. The odds ratio (OR) for early outcomes was 1.22 (95% confidence interval 0.99 to 1.49); the OR after 6 months was 1.38 (95% confidence interval 0.90 to 2.11) and after 12 months 1.02 (95% confidence interval 0.72 to 1.43). Similarly, when acupuncture was compared with other anti-smoking interventions, there were no differences in outcome at any time point. Acupuncture appeared to be superior to no intervention in the early results, but this difference was not sustained. The results with different acupuncture techniques do not show any one particular method (i.e. auricular acupuncture or non-auricular acupuncture) to be superior to control intervention. There is no clear evidence that acupuncture is effective for smoking cessation.

A multigene assay to predict recurrence of tamoxifen-treated, node-negative breast cancer.

PubMed

Paik, Soonmyung; Shak, Steven; Tang, Gong; Kim, Chungyeul; Baker, Joffre; Cronin, Maureen; Baehner, Frederick L; Walker, Michael G; Watson, Drew; Park, Taesung; Hiller, William; Fisher, Edwin R; Wickerham, D Lawrence; Bryant, John; Wolmark, Norman

2004-12-30

The likelihood of distant recurrence in patients with breast cancer who have no involved lymph nodes and estrogen-receptor-positive tumors is poorly defined by clinical and histopathological measures. We tested whether the results of a reverse-transcriptase-polymerase-chain-reaction (RT-PCR) assay of 21 prospectively selected genes in paraffin-embedded tumor tissue would correlate with the likelihood of distant recurrence in patients with node-negative, tamoxifen-treated breast cancer who were enrolled in the National Surgical Adjuvant Breast and Bowel Project clinical trial B-14. The levels of expression of 16 cancer-related genes and 5 reference genes were used in a prospectively defined algorithm to calculate a recurrence score and to determine a risk group (low, intermediate, or high) for each patient. Adequate RT-PCR profiles were obtained in 668 of 675 tumor blocks. The proportions of patients categorized as having a low, intermediate, or high risk by the RT-PCR assay were 51, 22, and 27 percent, respectively. The Kaplan-Meier estimates of the rates of distant recurrence at 10 years in the low-risk, intermediate-risk, and high-risk groups were 6.8 percent (95 percent confidence interval, 4.0 to 9.6), 14.3 percent (95 percent confidence interval, 8.3 to 20.3), and 30.5 percent (95 percent confidence interval, 23.6 to 37.4). The rate in the low-risk group was significantly lower than that in the high-risk group (P<0.001). In a multivariate Cox model, the recurrence score provided significant predictive power that was independent of age and tumor size (P<0.001). The recurrence score was also predictive of overall survival (P<0.001) and could be used as a continuous function to predict distant recurrence in individual patients. The recurrence score has been validated as quantifying the likelihood of distant recurrence in tamoxifen-treated patients with node-negative, estrogen-receptor-positive breast cancer. Copyright 2004 Massachusetts Medical Society.

Comparing the Use of 3D Photogrammetry and Computed Tomography in Assessing the Severity of Single-Suture Nonsyndromic Craniosynostosis.

PubMed

Ho, Olivia A; Saber, Nikoo; Stephens, Derek; Clausen, April; Drake, James; Forrest, Christopher; Phillips, John

2017-05-01

Single-suture nonsyndromic craniosynostosis is diagnosed using clinical assessment and computed tomography (CT). With increasing awareness of the associated risks of radiation exposure, the use of CT is particularly concerning in patients with craniosynostosis since they are exposed at a younger age and more frequently than the average child. Three-dimensional (3D) photogrammetry is advantageous-it involves no radiation, is conveniently obtainable within clinic, and does not require general anaesthesia. This study aims to assess how 3D photogrammetry compares to CT in the assessment of craniosynostosis severity, to quantify surgical outcomes, and analyze the validity of 3D photogrammetry in craniosynostosis. Computed tomography images and 3D photographs of patients who underwent craniosynostosis surgery were assessed and aligned to best fit. The intervening area between the CT and 3D photogrammetry curves at the supraorbital bar (bandeau) level in axial view was calculated. Statistical analysis was performed using Student t test. Ninety-five percent confidence intervals were determined and equivalence margins were applied. In total, 41 pairs of CTs and 3D photographs were analyzed. The 95% confidence interval was 198.16 to 264.18 mm 2 and the mean was 231.17 mm 2 . When comparisons were made in the same bandeau region omitting the temporalis muscle, the 95% confidence interval was 108.94 to 147.38 mm 2 , and the mean was 128.16 mm 2 . Although statistically significant difference between the modalities was found, they can be attributable to the dampening effect of soft tissue. Within certain error margins, 3D photogrammetry is comparable to CT in assessing the severity of single-suture nonsyndromic craniosynostosis. However, a dampening effect can be attributable to the soft tissue. Three-dimensional photogrammetry may be more applicable for severe cases of craniosynostosis but not milder deformity. It may also be beneficial for assessing the overall appearance and aesthetics but not for determining underlying bony severity.

Do one-time intracompartmental pressure measurements have a high false-positive rate in diagnosing compartment syndrome?

PubMed

Whitney, Augusta; O'Toole, Robert V; Hui, Emily; Sciadini, Marcus F; Pollak, Andrew N; Manson, Theodore T; Eglseder, W Andrew; Andersen, Romney C; Lebrun, Christopher; Doro, Christopher; Nascone, Jason W

2014-02-01

Intracompartmental pressure measurements are frequently used in the diagnosis of compartment syndrome, particularly in patients with equivocal or limited physical examination findings. Little clinical work has been done to validate the clinical use of intracompartmental pressures or identify associated false-positive rates. We hypothesized that diagnosis of compartment syndrome based on one-time pressure measurements alone is associated with a high false-positive rate. Forty-eight consecutive patients with tibial shaft fractures who were not suspected of having compartment syndrome based on physical examinations were prospectively enrolled. Pressure measurements were obtained in all four compartments at a single point in time immediately after induction of anesthesia using a pressure-monitoring device. Preoperative and intraoperative blood pressure measurements were recorded. The same standardized examination was performed by the attending surgeon preoperatively, postoperatively, and during clinical follow-up for 6 months to assess clinical evidence of acute or late compartment syndrome. No clinical evidence of compartment syndrome was observed postoperatively or during follow-up until 6 months after injury. Using the accepted criteria of delta P of 30 mm Hg from preoperative diastolic blood pressure, 35% of cases (n = 16; 95% confidence interval, 21.5-48.5%) met criteria for compartment syndrome. Raising the threshold to delta P of 20 mm Hg reduced the false-positive rate to 24% (n = 11; 95% confidence interval, 11.1-34.9%). Twenty-two percent (n = 10; 95% confidence interval, 9.5-32.5%) exceeded absolute pressure of 45 mm Hg. A 35% false-positive rate was found for the diagnosis of compartment syndrome in patients with tibial shaft fractures who were not thought to have compartment syndrome by using currently accepted criteria for diagnosis based solely on one-time compartment pressure measurements. Our data suggest that reliance on one-time intracompartmental pressure measurements can overestimate the rate of compartment syndrome and raise concern regarding unnecessary fasciotomies. Diagnostic study, level II.

Iodine concentration: a new, important characteristic of the spot sign that predicts haematoma expansion.

PubMed

Fu, Fan; Sun, Shengjun; Liu, Liping; Li, Jianying; Su, Yaping; Li, Yingying

2018-04-19

The computed tomography angiography (CTA) spot sign is a validated predictor of haematoma expansion (HE) in spontaneous intracerebral haemorrhage (SICH). We investigated whether defining the iodine concentration (IC) inside the spot sign and the haematoma on Gemstone spectral imaging (GSI) would improve its sensitivity and specificity for predicting HE. From 2014 to 2016, we prospectively enrolled 65 SICH patients who underwent single-phase spectral CTA within 6 h. Logistic regression was performed to assess the risk factors for HE. The predictive performance of individual spot sign characteristics was examined via receiver operating characteristic (ROC) analysis. The spot sign was detected in 46.1% (30/65) of patients. ROC analysis indicated that IC inside the spot sign had the greatest area under the ROC curve for HE (0.858; 95% confidence interval, 0.727-0.989; p = 0.003). Multivariate analysis found that spot sign with higher IC (i.e. IC > 7.82 100 μg/ml) was an independent predictor of HE (odds ratio = 34.27; 95% confidence interval, 5.608-209.41; p < 0.001) with sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value (PPV) and negative predictive value (NPV) of 0.81, 0.75, 0.90 and 0.60, respectively; while the spot sign showed sensitivity, specificity, PPV and NPV of 0.81, 0.79, 0.73 and 0.86. Logistic regression analysis indicated that the IC in haematomas was independently associated with HE (odds ratio = 1.525; 95% confidence interval, 1.041-2.235; p = 0.030). ICs in haematoma and in spot sign were all independently associated with HE. IC analysis in spectral imaging may help to identify SICH patients for targeted haemostatic therapy. • Iodine concentration in spot sign and haematoma can predict haematoma expansion • Spectral imaging could measure the IC inside the spot sign and haematoma • IC in spot sign improved the positive predictive value (PPV) cf. CTA.

Primary percutaneous coronary intervention for acute myocardial infarction in the elderly aged ≥75 years.

PubMed

Sakai, Koyu; Nagayama, Shinya; Ihara, Kasumi; Ando, Kenji; Shirai, Shinichi; Kondo, Katsuhiro; Yokoi, Hiroyoshi; Iwabuchi, Masashi; Nosaka, Hideyuki; Nobuyoshi, Masakiyo

2012-01-01

We aimed to see whether primary percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI) benefits for ST-segment elevation myocardial infarction (STEMI) in the aged could be validated. Primary PCI benefits in elderly patients with STEMI remain uncertain. We reviewed 947 consecutive patients treated with primary PCI for STEMI: 331 were aged ≥75 years (older) and 616 <75 years (younger). The older group had higher percentage of renal insufficiency (7.9% vs. 3.1%, P = 0.0010), prior stroke (9.4% vs. 3.9%, P = 0.0006), 30-day mortality rate (7.6% vs. 3.9%, P = 0.015), and cardiac mortality rate (6.6% vs. 3.7%, P = 0.045). Successful reperfusion rates were similarly high in both groups (90.0% and 92.7%, P = 0.16), despite the higher proportion of patients with door-to-balloon time >90 min (15% vs. 8.4%, P = 0.0016) in older patients. Successful compared with unsuccessful PCI significantly decreased 30-day mortality rates in the older group (6.0% vs. 21%, P = 0.0018) and in the younger group (2.8% vs. 18%, P < 0.0001). When reperfusion was successful, cardiac mortality rate in older patients was not significantly greater than in younger patients (5.4% vs. 2.8%, P = 0.057). By multivariate analysis, unsuccessful reperfusion independently predicted 30-day mortality (odds ratio, 4.04; 95% confidence interval, 1.79-9.12; P = 0.0008), whereas age ≥75 years (odds ratio, 1.00; 95% confidence interval, 0.41-2.41; P = 0.99) and door-to-balloon time >90 min (odds ratio, 1.78; 95% confidence interval, 0.76-4.20; P = 0.19) did not. Pre-existing comorbidities characterize older patients developing STEMI. Aggressive PCI in older patients improves prognosis, and short door-to-balloon time is an important parameter conditioning the prognosis. Copyright © 2011 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Multireader multicase reader studies with binary agreement data: simulation, analysis, validation, and sizing.

PubMed

Chen, Weijie; Wunderlich, Adam; Petrick, Nicholas; Gallas, Brandon D

2014-10-01

We treat multireader multicase (MRMC) reader studies for which a reader's diagnostic assessment is converted to binary agreement (1: agree with the truth state, 0: disagree with the truth state). We present a mathematical model for simulating binary MRMC data with a desired correlation structure across readers, cases, and two modalities, assuming the expected probability of agreement is equal for the two modalities ([Formula: see text]). This model can be used to validate the coverage probabilities of 95% confidence intervals (of [Formula: see text], [Formula: see text], or [Formula: see text] when [Formula: see text]), validate the type I error of a superiority hypothesis test, and size a noninferiority hypothesis test (which assumes [Formula: see text]). To illustrate the utility of our simulation model, we adapt the Obuchowski-Rockette-Hillis (ORH) method for the analysis of MRMC binary agreement data. Moreover, we use our simulation model to validate the ORH method for binary data and to illustrate sizing in a noninferiority setting. Our software package is publicly available on the Google code project hosting site for use in simulation, analysis, validation, and sizing of MRMC reader studies with binary agreement data.

Multireader multicase reader studies with binary agreement data: simulation, analysis, validation, and sizing

PubMed Central

Chen, Weijie; Wunderlich, Adam; Petrick, Nicholas; Gallas, Brandon D.

2014-01-01

Abstract. We treat multireader multicase (MRMC) reader studies for which a reader’s diagnostic assessment is converted to binary agreement (1: agree with the truth state, 0: disagree with the truth state). We present a mathematical model for simulating binary MRMC data with a desired correlation structure across readers, cases, and two modalities, assuming the expected probability of agreement is equal for the two modalities (P1=P2). This model can be used to validate the coverage probabilities of 95% confidence intervals (of P1, P2, or P1−P2 when P1−P2=0), validate the type I error of a superiority hypothesis test, and size a noninferiority hypothesis test (which assumes P1=P2). To illustrate the utility of our simulation model, we adapt the Obuchowski–Rockette–Hillis (ORH) method for the analysis of MRMC binary agreement data. Moreover, we use our simulation model to validate the ORH method for binary data and to illustrate sizing in a noninferiority setting. Our software package is publicly available on the Google code project hosting site for use in simulation, analysis, validation, and sizing of MRMC reader studies with binary agreement data. PMID:26158051

Statistical Validation of Surrogate Endpoints: Another Look at the Prentice Criterion and Other Criteria.

PubMed

Saraf, Sanatan; Mathew, Thomas; Roy, Anindya

2015-01-01

For the statistical validation of surrogate endpoints, an alternative formulation is proposed for testing Prentice's fourth criterion, under a bivariate normal model. In such a setup, the criterion involves inference concerning an appropriate regression parameter, and the criterion holds if the regression parameter is zero. Testing such a null hypothesis has been criticized in the literature since it can only be used to reject a poor surrogate, and not to validate a good surrogate. In order to circumvent this, an equivalence hypothesis is formulated for the regression parameter, namely the hypothesis that the parameter is equivalent to zero. Such an equivalence hypothesis is formulated as an alternative hypothesis, so that the surrogate endpoint is statistically validated when the null hypothesis is rejected. Confidence intervals for the regression parameter and tests for the equivalence hypothesis are proposed using bootstrap methods and small sample asymptotics, and their performances are numerically evaluated and recommendations are made. The choice of the equivalence margin is a regulatory issue that needs to be addressed. The proposed equivalence testing formulation is also adopted for other parameters that have been proposed in the literature on surrogate endpoint validation, namely, the relative effect and proportion explained.

[Validity of AUDIT test for detection of disorders related with alcohol consumption in women].

PubMed

Pérula-de Torres, Luis Angel; Fernández-García, José Angel; Arias-Vega, Raquel; Muriel-Palomino, María; Márquez-Rebollo, Encarnación; Ruiz-Moral, Roger

2005-11-26

Early detection of patients with alcohol problems is important in clinical practice. The AUDIT (Alcohol Use Disorders Identification Test) questionnaire is a valid tool for this aim, especially in the male population. The objective of this study was to validate how useful is this questionnaire in females patients and to assess their test cut-off point for the diagnosis of alcohol problems in women. 414 woman were recruited in 2 health center and specialized center for addiction treatment. The AUDIT test and a semistructured interview (SCAN as gold standard) were performed to all patients. Internal consistency and criteria validity was assessed. Cronbach alpha was 0.93 (95% confidence interval [CI], 0.921-0.941). When the DSM-IV was taken as reference the most useful cut-off point was 6 points, with 89.6% (95% CI, 76.11-96.02) sensitivity and 95.07% (95% CI, 92.18-96.97) specificity. When CIE-10 was taken as reference the sensitivity was 89.58% (95% CI, 76.56-96.10) and the specificity was 95.33% (95% CI, 92.48-97.17). AUDIT is a questionnaire with good psychometrics properties and is valid for detecting dependence and risk alcohol consumption in women.

Individualized prediction of perineural invasion in colorectal cancer: development and validation of a radiomics prediction model.

PubMed

Huang, Yanqi; He, Lan; Dong, Di; Yang, Caiyun; Liang, Cuishan; Chen, Xin; Ma, Zelan; Huang, Xiaomei; Yao, Su; Liang, Changhong; Tian, Jie; Liu, Zaiyi

2018-02-01

To develop and validate a radiomics prediction model for individualized prediction of perineural invasion (PNI) in colorectal cancer (CRC). After computed tomography (CT) radiomics features extraction, a radiomics signature was constructed in derivation cohort (346 CRC patients). A prediction model was developed to integrate the radiomics signature and clinical candidate predictors [age, sex, tumor location, and carcinoembryonic antigen (CEA) level]. Apparent prediction performance was assessed. After internal validation, independent temporal validation (separate from the cohort used to build the model) was then conducted in 217 CRC patients. The final model was converted to an easy-to-use nomogram. The developed radiomics nomogram that integrated the radiomics signature and CEA level showed good calibration and discrimination performance [Harrell's concordance index (c-index): 0.817; 95% confidence interval (95% CI): 0.811-0.823]. Application of the nomogram in validation cohort gave a comparable calibration and discrimination (c-index: 0.803; 95% CI: 0.794-0.812). Integrating the radiomics signature and CEA level into a radiomics prediction model enables easy and effective risk assessment of PNI in CRC. This stratification of patients according to their PNI status may provide a basis for individualized auxiliary treatment.

A simple method for assessing occupational exposure via the one-way random effects model.

PubMed

Krishnamoorthy, K; Mathew, Thomas; Peng, Jie

2016-11-01

A one-way random effects model is postulated for the log-transformed shift-long personal exposure measurements, where the random effect in the model represents an effect due to the worker. Simple closed-form confidence intervals are proposed for the relevant parameters of interest using the method of variance estimates recovery (MOVER). The performance of the confidence bounds is evaluated and compared with those based on the generalized confidence interval approach. Comparison studies indicate that the proposed MOVER confidence bounds are better than the generalized confidence bounds for the overall mean exposure and an upper percentile of the exposure distribution. The proposed methods are illustrated using a few examples involving industrial hygiene data.

Simulation data for an estimation of the maximum theoretical value and confidence interval for the correlation coefficient.

PubMed

Rocco, Paolo; Cilurzo, Francesco; Minghetti, Paola; Vistoli, Giulio; Pedretti, Alessandro

2017-10-01

The data presented in this article are related to the article titled "Molecular Dynamics as a tool for in silico screening of skin permeability" (Rocco et al., 2017) [1]. Knowledge of the confidence interval and maximum theoretical value of the correlation coefficient r can prove useful to estimate the reliability of developed predictive models, in particular when there is great variability in compiled experimental datasets. In this Data in Brief article, data from purposely designed numerical simulations are presented to show how much the maximum r value is worsened by increasing the data uncertainty. The corresponding confidence interval of r is determined by using the Fisher r → Z transform.

Confidence Intervals for Assessing Heterogeneity in Generalized Linear Mixed Models

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Wagler, Amy E.

2014-01-01

Generalized linear mixed models are frequently applied to data with clustered categorical outcomes. The effect of clustering on the response is often difficult to practically assess partly because it is reported on a scale on which comparisons with regression parameters are difficult to make. This article proposes confidence intervals for…

Likelihood-Based Confidence Intervals in Exploratory Factor Analysis

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Oort, Frans J.

2011-01-01

In exploratory or unrestricted factor analysis, all factor loadings are free to be estimated. In oblique solutions, the correlations between common factors are free to be estimated as well. The purpose of this article is to show how likelihood-based confidence intervals can be obtained for rotated factor loadings and factor correlations, by…

Characterizing the Mathematics Anxiety Literature Using Confidence Intervals as a Literature Review Mechanism

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Zientek, Linda Reichwein; Yetkiner, Z. Ebrar; Thompson, Bruce

2010-01-01

The authors report the contextualization of effect sizes within mathematics anxiety research, and more specifically within research using the Mathematics Anxiety Rating Scale (MARS) and the MARS for Adolescents (MARS-A). The effect sizes from 45 studies were characterized by graphing confidence intervals (CIs) across studies involving (a) adults…

Statistical inference for remote sensing-based estimates of net deforestation

Treesearch

Ronald E. McRoberts; Brian F. Walters

2012-01-01

Statistical inference requires expression of an estimate in probabilistic terms, usually in the form of a confidence interval. An approach to constructing confidence intervals for remote sensing-based estimates of net deforestation is illustrated. The approach is based on post-classification methods using two independent forest/non-forest classifications because...

Estimating Standardized Linear Contrasts of Means with Desired Precision

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Bonett, Douglas G.

2009-01-01

L. Wilkinson and the Task Force on Statistical Inference (1999) recommended reporting confidence intervals for measures of effect sizes. If the sample size is too small, the confidence interval may be too wide to provide meaningful information. Recently, K. Kelley and J. R. Rausch (2006) used an iterative approach to computer-generate tables of…

UNDERSTANDING SYSTEMATIC MEASUREMENT ERROR IN THERMAL-OPTICAL ANALYSIS FOR PM BLACK CARBON USING RESPONSE SURFACES AND SURFACE CONFIDENCE INTERVALS

EPA Science Inventory

Results from a NIST-EPA Interagency Agreement on Understanding Systematic Measurement Error in Thermal-Optical Analysis for PM Black Carbon Using Response Surfaces and Surface Confidence Intervals will be presented at the American Association for Aerosol Research (AAAR) 24th Annu...

Statistical considerations in the development of injury risk functions.

PubMed

McMurry, Timothy L; Poplin, Gerald S

2015-01-01

We address 4 frequently misunderstood and important statistical ideas in the construction of injury risk functions. These include the similarities of survival analysis and logistic regression, the correct scale on which to construct pointwise confidence intervals for injury risk, the ability to discern which form of injury risk function is optimal, and the handling of repeated tests on the same subject. The statistical models are explored through simulation and examination of the underlying mathematics. We provide recommendations for the statistically valid construction and correct interpretation of single-predictor injury risk functions. This article aims to provide useful and understandable statistical guidance to improve the practice in constructing injury risk functions.

A Power-Law Growth and Decay Model with Autocorrelation for Posting Data to Social Networking Services

PubMed Central

Fujiyama, Toshifumi; Matsui, Chihiro; Takemura, Akimichi

2016-01-01

We propose a power-law growth and decay model for posting data to social networking services before and after social events. We model the time series structure of deviations from the power-law growth and decay with a conditional Poisson autoregressive (AR) model. Online postings related to social events are described by five parameters in the power-law growth and decay model, each of which characterizes different aspects of interest in the event. We assess the validity of parameter estimates in terms of confidence intervals, and compare various submodels based on likelihoods and information criteria. PMID:27505155

A new approach for the determination of sulphur in food samples by high-resolution continuum source flame atomic absorption spectrometer.

PubMed

Ozbek, N; Baysal, A

2015-02-01

The new approach for the determination of sulphur in foods was developed, and the sulphur concentrations of various fresh and dried food samples determined using a high-resolution continuum source flame atomic absorption spectrometer with an air/acetylene flame. The proposed method was optimised and the validated using standard reference materials, and certified values were found to be within the 95% confidence interval. The sulphur content of foods ranged from less than the LOD to 1.5mgg(-1). The method is accurate, fast, simple and sensitive. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Reliability and Validity Study of the Finnish Adaptation of Scoliosis Research Society Questionnaire Version SRS-30.

PubMed

Kyrölä, Kati; Järvenpää, Salme; Ylinen, Jari; Mecklin, Jukka-Pekka; Repo, Jussi Petteri; Häkkinen, Arja

2017-06-15

A prospective clinical study to test and adapt a Finnish version of the Scoliosis Research Society 30 (SRS-30) questionnaire. The aim of this study was to perform cross-cultural adaptation and evaluate the validity of the adapted Finnish version of the SRS-30 questionnaire. The SRS-30 questionnaire has proved to be a valid instrument in evaluating health-related quality of life (HRQoL) in adolescent and adult population with spine deformities in the United States. Multinational availability requires cross-cultural and linguistic adaptation and validation of the instrument. The SRS-30 was translated into Finnish using accepted methods for translation of quality-of-life questionnaires. A total of 274 adult patients with degenerative radiographic sagittal spinal disorder answered the questionnaire with sociodemographic data, RAND 36-item health survey questionnaire (RAND Corp. Health, Santa Monica, CA, US), Oswestry disability index, DEPS depression scale, and Visual Analog Scale (VAS) back and leg pain scales within 2 weeks' interval. The cohort included patients with and without previous spine surgery. Internal consistency and validity were tested with Cronbach α, intraclass correlation (ICC), standard error of measurement, and Spearman correlation coefficient with 95% confidence intervals (CIs). The internal consistency of SRS-30 was good in both surgery and nonsurgery groups, with Cronbach α 0.853 (95% CI, 0.670 to 0.960) and 0.885 (95% CI, 0.854 to 0.911), respectively. The test-retest reproducibility ICC of the SRS-30 total and subscore domains of patients with stable symptoms was 0.905 (95% CI, 0.870-0.930) and 0.904 (95% CI, 0.871-0.929), respectively. The questionnaire had discriminative validity in the pain, self-image, and satisfaction with management domains compared with other questionnaires. The SRS-30 questionnaire proved to be valid and applicable in evaluating HRQoL in Finnish adult spinal deformity patients. It has two domains related to deformity that are not covered by other generally used questionnaires. 3.

Sex hormones and the risk of type 2 diabetes mellitus: A 9-year follow up among elderly men in Finland.

PubMed

Salminen, Marika; Vahlberg, Tero; Räihä, Ismo; Niskanen, Leo; Kivelä, Sirkka-Liisa; Irjala, Kerttu

2015-05-01

To analyze whether sex hormone levels predict the incidence of type2 diabetes among elderly Finnish men. This was a prospective population-based study, with a 9-year follow up period. The study population in the municipality of Lieto, Finland, consisted of elderly (age ≥64 years) men free of type 2 diabetes at baseline in 1998-1999 (n = 430). Body mass index and cardiovascular disease-adjusted hazard ratios and their 95% confidence intervals for type 2 diabetes predicted by testosterone, free testosterone, sex hormone-binding globulin, luteinizing hormone, and testosterone/luteinizing hormone were estimated. A total of 30 new cases of type 2 diabetes developed during the follow-up period. After adjustment, only higher levels of testosterone (hazard ratio for one-unit increase 0.93, 95% confidence interval 0.87-0.99, P = 0.020) and free testosterone (hazard ratio for 10-unit increase 0.96, 95% confidence interval 0.91-1.00, P = 0.044) were associated with a lower risk of incident type 2 diabetes during the follow up. These associations (0.94, 95% confidence interval 0.87-1.00, P = 0.050 and 0.95, 95% confidence interval 0.90-1.00, P = 0.035, respectively) persisted even after additional adjustment of sex hormone-binding globulin. Higher levels of testosterone and free testosterone independently predicted a reduced risk of type 2 diabetes in the elderly men. © 2014 Japan Geriatrics Society.

N-acetyltransferase 2 gene polymorphism as a biomarker for susceptibility to bladder cancer in Bangladeshi population.

PubMed

Hosen, Md Bayejid; Islam, Jahidul; Salam, Md Abdus; Islam, Md Fakhrul; Hawlader, M Zakir Hossain; Kabir, Yearul

2015-03-01

To investigate the association between the three most common single nucleotide polymorphisms of the N-acetyltransferase 2 gene together with cigarette smoking and the risk of developing bladder cancer and its aggressiveness. A case-control study on 102 bladder cancer patients and 140 control subjects was conducted. The genomic DNA was extracted from peripheral white blood cells and N-acetyltransferase 2 alleles were differentiated by polymerase chain reaction-based restriction fragment length polymorphism methods. Bladder cancer risk was estimated as odds ratio and 95% confidence interval using binary logistic regression models adjusting for age and gender. Overall, N-acetyltransferase 2 slow genotypes were associated with bladder cancer risk (odds ratio=4.45; 95% confidence interval=2.26-8.77). The cigarette smokers with slow genotypes were found to have a sixfold increased risk to develop bladder cancer (odds ratio=6.05; 95% confidence interval=2.23-15.82). Patients with slow acetylating genotypes were more prone to develop high-grade (odds ratio=6.63; 95% confidence interval=1.15-38.13; P<0.05) and invasive (odds ratio=10.6; 95% confidence interval=1.00-111.5; P=0.05) tumor. N-acetyltransferase 2 slow genotype together with tobacco smoking increases bladder cancer risk. Patients with N-acetyltransferase 2 slow genotypes were more likely to develop a high-grade and invasive tumor. N-acetyltransferase 2 slow genotype is an important genetic determinant for bladder cancer in Bangladesh population. © 2014 Wiley Publishing Asia Pty Ltd.

Sodium-glucose cotransporter 2 (SGLT2) inhibitors and fracture risk in patients with type 2 diabetes mellitus: A meta-analysis.

PubMed

Ruanpeng, Darin; Ungprasert, Patompong; Sangtian, Jutarat; Harindhanavudhi, Tasma

2017-09-01

Sodium-glucose cotransporter 2 (SGLT2) inhibitors could potentially alter calcium and phosphate homeostasis and may increase the risk of bone fracture. The current meta-analysis was conducted to investigate the fracture risk among patients with type 2 diabetes mellitus treated with SGLT2 inhibitors. Randomized controlled trials that compared the efficacy of SGLT2 inhibitors to placebo were identified. The risk ratios of fracture among patients who received SGLT2 inhibitors versus placebo were extracted from each study. Pooled risk ratios and 95% confidence intervals were calculated using a random-effect, Mantel-Haenszel analysis. A total of 20 studies with 8286 patients treated with SGLT2 inhibitors were included. The pooled risk ratio of bone fracture in patients receiving SGLT2 inhibitors versus placebo was 0.67 (95% confidence interval, 0.42-1.07). The pooled risk ratio for canagliflozin, dapagliflozin, and empagliflozin was 0.66 (95% confidence interval, 0.37-1.19), 0.84 (95% confidence interval, 0.22-3.18), and 0.57 (95% confidence interval, 0.20-1.59), respectively. Increased risk of bone fracture among patients with type 2 diabetes mellitus treated with SGLT2 inhibitors compared with placebo was not observed in this meta-analysis. However, the results were limited by short duration of treatment/follow-up and low incidence of the event of interest. Copyright © 2017 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Influence of gender role attitudes on smoking and drinking among girls from Jujuy, Argentina.

PubMed

Mejia, Raul; Kaplan, Celia P; Alderete, Ethel; Gregorich, Steven E; Pérez-Stable, Eliseo J

2013-09-01

Evaluate effect of gender role attitudes on tobacco and alcohol use among Argentinean girls. Cross-sectional survey of 10th grade students attending 27 randomly selected schools in Jujuy, Argentina. Questions about tobacco and alcohol use were adapted from global youth surveys. Five items with 5-point response options of agreement-disagreement assessed attitude towards egalitarian (higher score) gender roles. 2133 girls, aged 13-18 years, 71% Indigenous, 22% mixed Indigenous/European, and 7% European responded. Of these, 60% had ever smoked, 32% were current smokers, 58% ever drinkers, 27% drank in previous month, and 13% had ≥5 drinks on one occasion. Mean response to the gender role scale was 3.49 (95% Confidence Intervals = 3.41-3.57) out of 5 tending toward egalitarian attitudes. Logistic regression models using the gender role scale score as the main predictor and adjusting for demographic and social confounders showed that egalitarian gender role was associated with ever smoking (Odds Ratio = 1.25; 95% Confidence Intervals 1.09-1.44), ever drinking (Odds Ratio = 1.24; 95% Confidence Intervals 1.10-1.40), drinking in prior month (Odds Ratio = 1.21; 95% Confidence Intervals 1.07-1.37) and ≥5 drinks on one occasion (Odds Ratio = 1.15; 95% Confidence Intervals 1.00-1.33), but was not significant for current smoking. Girls in Jujuy who reported more egalitarian gender role attitudes had higher odds of smoking or drinking. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Albumin treatment regimen for type 1 hepatorenal syndrome: a dose-response meta-analysis.

PubMed

Salerno, Francesco; Navickis, Roberta J; Wilkes, Mahlon M

2015-11-25

Recommended treatment for type 1 hepatorenal syndrome consists of albumin and vasoconstrictor. The optimal albumin dose remains poorly characterized. This meta-analysis aimed to determine the impact of albumin dose on treatment outcomes. Clinical studies of type 1 hepatorenal syndrome treatment with albumin and vasoconstrictor were sought. Search terms included: hepatorenal syndrome; albumin; vasoconstrictor; terlipressin; midodrine; octreotide; noradrenaline; and norepinephrine. A meta-analysis was performed of hepatorenal syndrome reversal and survival in relation to albumin dose. Nineteen clinical studies with 574 total patients were included, comprising 8 randomized controlled trials, 8 prospective studies and 3 retrospective studies. The pooled percentage of patients achieving hepatorenal syndrome reversal was 49.5% (95% confidence interval, 40.0-59.1%). Increments of 100 g in cumulative albumin dose were accompanied by significantly increased survival (hazard ratio, 1.15; 95% confidence interval, 1.02-1.31; p = 0.023). A non-significant increase of similar magnitude in hepatorenal syndrome reversal was also observed (odds ratio, 1.15; 95% confidence interval, 0.97-1.37; p = 0.10). Expected survival rates at 30 days among patients receiving cumulative albumin doses of 200, 400 and 600 g were 43.2% (95% confidence interval, 36.4-51.3%), 51.4% (95% confidence interval, 46.3-57.1%) and 59.0% (95% confidence interval, 51.9-67.2), respectively. Neither survival nor hepatorenal syndrome reversal was significantly affected by vasoconstrictor dose or type, treatment duration, age, baseline serum creatinine, bilirubin or albumin, baseline mean arterial pressure, or study design, size or time period. This meta-analysis suggests a dose-response relationship between infused albumin and survival in patients with type 1 hepatorenal syndrome. The meta-analysis provides the best current evidence on the potential role of albumin dose selection in improving outcomes of treatment for type 1 HRS and furnishes guidance for the design of future dose-ranging studies.

Prevalence of orofacial clefts and risks for nonsyndromic cleft lip with or without cleft palate in newborns at a university hospital from West Mexico.

PubMed

Corona-Rivera, Jorge Román; Bobadilla-Morales, Lucina; Corona-Rivera, Alfredo; Peña-Padilla, Christian; Olvera-Molina, Sandra; Orozco-Martín, Miriam A; García-Cruz, Diana; Ríos-Flores, Izabel M; Gómez-Rodríguez, Brian Gabriel; Rivas-Soto, Gemma; Pérez-Molina, J Jesús

2018-02-19

We determined the overall prevalence of typical orofacial clefts and the potential risks for nonsyndromic cleft lip with or without cleft palate in a university hospital from West México. For the prevalence, 227 liveborn infants with typical orofacial clefts were included from a total of 81,193 births occurred during the period 2009-2016 at the "Dr. Juan I. Menchaca" Civil Hospital of Guadalajara (Guadalajara, Jalisco, Mexico). To evaluate potential risks, a case-control study was conducted among 420 newborns, including only those 105 patients with nonsyndromic cleft lip with or without cleft palate (cases), and 315 infants without birth defects (controls). Data were analyzed using multivariable logistic regression analysis expressed as adjusted odds ratio with 95% confidence intervals . The overall prevalence for typical orofacial clefts was 28 per 10,000 (95% confidence interval: 24.3-31.6), or 1 per 358 live births. The mean values for the prepregnancy weight, antepartum weight, and pre-pregnancy body mass index were statistically higher among the mothers of cases. Infants with nonsyndromic cleft lip with or without cleft palate had a significantly higher risk for previous history of any type of congenital anomaly (adjusted odds ratio: 2.7; 95% confidence interval: 1.4-5.1), history of a relative with cleft lip with or without cleft palate (adjusted odds ratio: 19.6; 95% confidence interval: 8.2-47.1), and first-trimester exposures to progestogens (adjusted odds ratio: 6.8; 95% CI 1.8-25.3), hyperthermia (adjusted odds ratio: 3.4; 95% confidence interval: 1.1-10.6), and common cold (adjusted odds ratio: 3.6; 95% confidence interval: 1.1-11.9). These risks could have contributed to explain the high prevalence of orofacial clefts in our region of Mexico, emphasizing that except for history of relatives with cleft lip with or without cleft palate, most are susceptible of modification. © 2018 Japanese Teratology Society.

Fixed ratio combinations of glucagon like peptide 1 receptor agonists with basal insulin: a systematic review and meta-analysis.

PubMed

Liakopoulou, Paraskevi; Liakos, Aris; Vasilakou, Despoina; Athanasiadou, Eleni; Bekiari, Eleni; Kazakos, Kyriakos; Tsapas, Apostolos

2017-06-01

Basal insulin controls primarily fasting plasma glucose but causes hypoglycaemia and weight gain, whilst glucagon like peptide 1 receptor agonists induce weight loss without increasing risk for hypoglycaemia. We conducted a systematic review and meta-analysis of randomised controlled trials to investigate the efficacy and safety of fixed ratio combinations of basal insulin with glucagon like peptide 1 receptor agonists. We searched Medline, Embase, and the Cochrane Library as well as conference abstracts up to December 2016. We assessed change in haemoglobin A 1c , body weight, and incidence of hypoglycaemia and gastrointestinal adverse events. We included eight studies with 5732 participants in the systematic review. Switch from basal insulin to fixed ratio combinations with a glucagon like peptide 1 receptor agonist was associated with 0.72% reduction in haemoglobin A 1c [95% confidence interval -1.03 to -0.41; I 2  = 93%] and 2.35 kg reduction in body weight (95% confidence interval -3.52 to -1.19; I 2  = 93%), reducing also risk for hypoglycaemia [odds ratio 0.70; 95% confidence interval 0.57 to 0.86; I 2  = 85%] but increasing incidence of nausea (odds ratio 6.89; 95% confidence interval 3.73-12.74; I 2  = 79%). Similarly, switching patients from treatment with a glucagon like peptide 1 receptor agonist to a fixed ratio combination with basal insulin was associated with 0.94% reduction in haemoglobin A 1c (95% confidence interval -1.11 to -0.77) and an increase in body weight by 2.89 kg (95% confidence interval 2.17-3.61). Fixed ratio combinations of basal insulin with glucagon like peptide 1 receptor agonists improve glycaemic control whilst balancing out risk for hypoglycaemia and gastrointestinal side effects.

Neonatal Infection in Children With Cerebral Palsy: A Registry-Based Cohort Study.

PubMed

Smilga, Anne-Sophie; Garfinkle, Jarred; Ng, Pamela; Andersen, John; Buckley, David; Fehlings, Darcy; Kirton, Adam; Wood, Ellen; van Rensburg, Esias; Shevell, Michael; Oskoui, Maryam

2018-03-01

The goal of this study was to explore the association between neonatal infection and outcomes in children with cerebral palsy. We conducted a retrospective cohort study using the Canadian CP Registry. Neonatal infection was defined as meeting one of the following criteria: (1) septicemia, (2) septic shock, or (3) administration of antibiotics for ≥10 days. Phenotypic profiles of children with cerebral palsy with and without an antecedent neonatal infection were compared. Subgroup analysis was performed, stratified by gestational age (term versus preterm). Of the 1229 registry participants, 505 (41.1%) were preterm, and 192 (15.6%) met the criteria for neonatal infection with 29% of preterm children having a neonatal infection compared with 6.5% in term-born children. Children with prior neonatal infection were more likely to have a white matter injury (odds ratio 2.2, 95% confidence interval 1.5 to 3.2), spastic diplegic neurological subtype (odds ratio 1.6, 95% confidence interval 1.1 to 2.3), and sensorineural auditory impairment (odds ratio 2.1, 95% confidence interval 1.4 to 3.3). Among preterm children, neonatal infection was not associated with a difference in phenotypic profile. Term-born children with neonatal infection were more likely to have spastic triplegia or quadriplegia (odds ratio 2.4, 95% confidence interval 1.3 to 4.3), concomitant white matter and cortical injury (odds ratio 4.1, 95% confidence interval 1.6 to 10.3), and more severe gross motor ability (Gross Motor Function Classification System IV to V) (odds ratio 2.6, 95% confidence interval 1.4 to 4.8) compared with preterm children. Findings suggest a role of systemic infection on the developing brain in term-born infants, and the possibility to develop targeted therapeutic and preventive strategies to reduce cerebral palsy morbidity. Copyright © 2017. Published by Elsevier Inc.

T-category remains an important prognostic factor for oropharyngeal carcinoma in the era of human papillomavirus.

PubMed

Mackenzie, P; Pryor, D; Burmeister, E; Foote, M; Panizza, B; Burmeister, B; Porceddu, S

2014-10-01

To determine prognostic factors for locoregional relapse (LRR), distant relapse and all-cause death in a contemporary cohort of locoregionally advanced oropharyngeal squamous cell carcinoma (OSCC) treated with definitive chemoradiotherapy or radiotherapy alone. OSCC patients treated with definitive radiotherapy between 2005 and 2010 were identified from a prospective head and neck database. Patient age, gender, smoking history, human papillomavirus (HPV) status, T- and N-category, lowest involved nodal level and gross tumour volume of the primary (GTV-p) and nodal (GTV-n) disease were analysed in relation to LRR, distant relapse and death by way of univariate and multivariate analysis. In total, 130 patients were identified, 88 HPV positive, with a median follow-up of 42 months. On multivariate analysis HPV status was a significant predictor of LRR (hazard ratio 0.15; 95% confidence interval 0.05-0.51) and death (hazard ratio 0.29; 95% confidence interval 0.14-0.59) but not distant relapse (hazard ratio 0.53, 95% confidence interval 0.22-1.27). Increasing T-category was associated with a higher risk of LRR (hazard ratio 1.80 for T3/4 versus T1/2; 95% confidence interval 1.08-2.99), death (hazard ratio 1.37, 95% confidence interval 1.06-1.77) and distant relapse (hazard ratio 1.35; 95% confidence interval 1.00-1.83). Increasing GTV-p was associated with increased risk of distant relapse and death. N3 disease and low neck nodes were significant for LRR, distant relapse and death on univariate analysis only. Tumour HPV status was the strongest predictor of LRR and death. T-category is more predictive of distant relapse and may provide additional prognostic value for LRR and death when accounting for HPV status. Copyright © 2014 The Royal College of Radiologists. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

The Hospital Anxiety and Depression Scale (HADS) and the 9-item Patient Health Questionnaire (PHQ-9) as screening instruments for depression in patients with cancer.

PubMed

Hartung, Tim J; Friedrich, Michael; Johansen, Christoffer; Wittchen, Hans-Ulrich; Faller, Herman; Koch, Uwe; Brähler, Elmar; Härter, Martin; Keller, Monika; Schulz, Holger; Wegscheider, Karl; Weis, Joachim; Mehnert, Anja

2017-11-01

Depression screening in patients with cancer is recommended by major clinical guidelines, although the evidence on individual screening tools is limited for this population. Here, the authors assess and compare the diagnostic accuracy of 2 established screening instruments: the depression modules of the 9-item Patient Health Questionnaire (PHQ-9) and the Hospital Anxiety and Depression Scale (HADS-D), in a representative sample of patients with cancer. This multicenter study was conducted with a proportional, stratified, random sample of 2141 patients with cancer across all major tumor sites and treatment settings. The PHQ-9 and HADS-D were assessed and compared in terms of diagnostic accuracy and receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves for Diagnostic and Statistical Manual of Mental Disorders, 4th edition diagnosis of major depressive disorder using the Composite International Diagnostic Interview for Oncology as the criterion standard. The diagnostic accuracy of the PHQ-9 and HADS-D was fair for diagnosing major depressive disorder, with areas under the ROC curves of 0.78 (95% confidence interval, 0.76-0.79) and 0.75 (95% confidence interval, 0.74-0.77), respectively. The 2 questionnaires did not differ significantly in their areas under the ROC curves (P = .15). The PHQ-9 with a cutoff score ≥7 had the best screening performance, with a sensitivity of 83% (95% confidence interval, 78%-89%) and a specificity of 61% (95% confidence interval, 59%-63%). The American Society of Clinical Oncology guideline screening algorithm had a sensitivity of 44% (95% confidence interval, 36%-51%) and a specificity of 84% (95% confidence interval, 83%-85%). In patients with cancer, the screening performance of both the PHQ-9 and the HADS-D was limited compared with a standardized diagnostic interview. Costs and benefits of routinely screening all patients with cancer should be weighed carefully. Cancer 2017;123:4236-4243. © 2017 American Cancer Society. © 2017 American Cancer Society.

Variable impact on mortality of AIDS-defining events diagnosed during combination antiretroviral therapy: not all AIDS-defining conditions are created equal.

PubMed

Mocroft, Amanda; Sterne, Jonathan A C; Egger, Matthias; May, Margaret; Grabar, Sophie; Furrer, Hansjakob; Sabin, Caroline; Fatkenheuer, Gerd; Justice, Amy; Reiss, Peter; d'Arminio Monforte, Antonella; Gill, John; Hogg, Robert; Bonnet, Fabrice; Kitahata, Mari; Staszewski, Schlomo; Casabona, Jordi; Harris, Ross; Saag, Michael

2009-04-15

The extent to which mortality differs following individual acquired immunodeficiency syndrome (AIDS)-defining events (ADEs) has not been assessed among patients initiating combination antiretroviral therapy. We analyzed data from 31,620 patients with no prior ADEs who started combination antiretroviral therapy. Cox proportional hazards models were used to estimate mortality hazard ratios for each ADE that occurred in >50 patients, after stratification by cohort and adjustment for sex, HIV transmission group, number of antiretroviral drugs initiated, regimen, age, date of starting combination antiretroviral therapy, and CD4+ cell count and HIV RNA load at initiation of combination antiretroviral therapy. ADEs that occurred in <50 patients were grouped together to form a "rare ADEs" category. During a median follow-up period of 43 months (interquartile range, 19-70 months), 2880 ADEs were diagnosed in 2262 patients; 1146 patients died. The most common ADEs were esophageal candidiasis (in 360 patients), Pneumocystis jiroveci pneumonia (320 patients), and Kaposi sarcoma (308 patients). The greatest mortality hazard ratio was associated with non-Hodgkin's lymphoma (hazard ratio, 17.59; 95% confidence interval, 13.84-22.35) and progressive multifocal leukoencephalopathy (hazard ratio, 10.0; 95% confidence interval, 6.70-14.92). Three groups of ADEs were identified on the basis of the ranked hazard ratios with bootstrapped confidence intervals: severe (non-Hodgkin's lymphoma and progressive multifocal leukoencephalopathy [hazard ratio, 7.26; 95% confidence interval, 5.55-9.48]), moderate (cryptococcosis, cerebral toxoplasmosis, AIDS dementia complex, disseminated Mycobacterium avium complex, and rare ADEs [hazard ratio, 2.35; 95% confidence interval, 1.76-3.13]), and mild (all other ADEs [hazard ratio, 1.47; 95% confidence interval, 1.08-2.00]). In the combination antiretroviral therapy era, mortality rates subsequent to an ADE depend on the specific diagnosis. The proposed classification of ADEs may be useful in clinical end point trials, prognostic studies, and patient management.

The prevalence of diagnosed tourette syndrome in Canada: A national population-based study.

PubMed

Yang, Jaeun; Hirsch, Lauren; Martino, Davide; Jette, Nathalie; Roberts, Jodie; Pringsheim, Tamara

2016-11-01

The objective of this study was to examine: (1) the prevalence of diagnosed Tourette syndrome in Canada by sex in youth (aged 12-17) and adults and (2) socioeconomic factors in this population. The majority of epidemiological studies of tics have focused on children and youth, with few studies describing the prevalence of tics in adult populations. Canadian data on Tourette syndrome prevalence were derived from the Canadian Community Health Survey 2010 and 2011 cycles, a Statistics Canada population-based cross-sectional survey that collects information related to health status. We determined the prevalence of diagnosed Tourette syndrome and examined sociodemographic factors, including age, sex, education, income, employment, and birthplace. Overall, 122,884 Canadians participated in the surveys, with 122 participants diagnosed with Tourette syndrome. The prevalence of Tourette syndrome was higher in males in youth: 6.03 per 1000 (95% confidence interval: 3.24-8.81) in males versus 0.48 per 1,000 (95% confidence interval: 0.05-0.91) in females, with a prevalence risk ratio of 5.31 (95% confidence interval: 2.38-11.81). In adults, the prevalence of Tourette syndrome was 0.89 per 1,000 (95% confidence interval: 0.48-1.29) in males versus 0.44 (95% confidence interval: 0.16.0-0.71) in females, with a prevalence risk ratio of 1.93 (95% confidence interval: 1.21-3.08). After adjusting for age and sex, adults with Tourette syndrome had lower odds of receiving postsecondary education or being employed and higher odds of having income lower than the median and receiving governmental support. Data on the prevalence of Tourette syndrome in adults are scarce because most studies focus on children. Our data demonstrate a decreasing prevalence risk ratio for sex in adults compared to children. A diagnosis of Tourette syndrome is associated with lower education, income, and employment in adulthood. © 2016 International Parkinson and Movement Disorder Society. © 2016 International Parkinson and Movement Disorder Society.

Stroke preparedness in children: translating knowledge into behavioral intent: a systematic review and meta-analysis.

PubMed

Ottawa, Cassandra; Sposato, Luciano A; Nabbouh, Fadl; Saposnik, Gustavo

2015-10-01

If translated into behavioral intent, improving stroke knowledge may potentially impact on better outcomes. Children are an attractive target population since they can drive familial behavioral changes. However, the impact of interventions on stroke knowledge among children is unclear. We performed a systematic review and meta-analysis to investigate whether educational interventions targeting children improve stroke knowledge and lead to behavioral changes. We searched Ovid, PubMed, and Embase between January 2000 and December 2014. We included studies written in English reporting the number of children aged 6-15 years undergoing educational interventions on stroke and providing the results for baseline and early and late postintervention tests. We compared the proportion of correct answers between baseline, early, and late responses for two endpoints: knowledge and behavioral intent. Of the initial 58 articles found, we included nine that met the inclusion criteria. Compared with baseline tests (51·7%, 95% confidence interval 40·9-62·4), there was improvement in stroke knowledge in early (74·0%, 95% confidence interval 64·4-82·5, P = 0·002) and late (67·3%, 95% confidence interval 55·4-78·2, P = 0·027) responses. There was improvement in the early (92·1%, 95% confidence interval 86·0-96·6, P < 0·001) and late (83·9%, 95% confidence interval 73·5-92·1, P = 0·001) responses for behavioral intent compared with the baseline assessment (63·8%, 95% confidence interval 53·5-73·4). Children are a potentially attractive target population for improvement in stroke knowledge and behavioral intent, both in the short and long term. Our findings may support the implementation of large-scale stroke educational initiatives targeting children. © 2015 World Stroke Organization.

Suicide in patients with gastric cancer: a population-based study.

PubMed

Sugawara, Akitomo; Kunieda, Etsuo

2016-09-01

We conducted this study to examine the rate of suicide in patients with gastric cancer and to identify factors associated with increased risk of suicide using the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results database. The database was queried for patients who were diagnosed with gastric cancer from 1998 to 2011. The rate of suicide and standardized mortality ratio were calculated. Multivariable analyses were conducted to identify factors associated with increased risk of suicide. A total of 65 535 patients with 109 597 person-years of follow-up were included. A total of 68 patients died of suicide. The age-adjusted rate of suicide was 34.6 per 100 000 person-years (standardized mortality ratios, 4.07; 95% confidence interval, 3.18-5.13). The rate of suicide was highest within the first 3 months after cancer diagnosis (standardized mortality ratios, 67.67; 95% confidence interval, 40.74-106.15). Results of multivariable analyses showed that male sex (incidence rate ratio, 7.15; 95% confidence interval, 3.05-16.78; P < 0.0001), White race (incidence rate ratio, 3.23; 95% confidence interval, 1.00-10.35; P = 0.0491), unmarried status (incidence rate ratio, 2.01; 95% confidence interval, 1.22-3.30; P = 0.0060) and distant stage disease (incidence rate ratio, 2.90; 95% confidence interval, 1.72-4.92; P < 0.0001) were significantly associated with increased risk of suicide. Patients with gastric cancer have an ~4-fold higher risk of suicide compared with the general US population. The suicide risk is highest within the first 3 months after diagnosis. Male sex, White race, unmarried status and distant stage disease are significantly associated with increased risk of suicide. © The Author 2016. Published by Oxford University Press. All rights reserved. For permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.

Integrating palliative care across settings: A retrospective cohort study of a hospice home care programme for cancer patients.

PubMed

Tan, Woan Shin; Lee, Angel; Yang, Sze Yee; Chan, Susan; Wu, Huei Yaw; Ng, Charis Wei Ling; Heng, Bee Hoon

2016-07-01

Terminally ill patients at the end-of-life do transit between care settings due to their complex care needs. Problems of care fragmentation could result in poor quality of care. We aimed to evaluate the impact of an integrated hospice home care programme on acute care service usage and on the share of home deaths. The retrospective study cohort comprised patients who were diagnosed with cancer, had an expected prognosis of 1 year or less, and were referred to a home hospice. The intervention group comprised deceased patients enrolled in the integrated hospice home care programme between September 2012 and June 2014. The historical comparison group comprised deceased patients who were referred to other home hospices between January 2007 and January 2011. There were 321 cases and 593 comparator subjects. Relative to the comparator group, the share of hospital deaths was significantly lower for programme participants (12.1% versus 42.7%). After adjusting for differences at baseline, the intervention group had statistically significantly lower emergency department visits at 30 days (incidence rate ratio: 0.38; 95% confidence interval: 0.31-0.47), 60 days (incidence rate ratio: 0.61; 95% confidence interval: 0.54-0.69) and 90 days (incidence rate ratio: 0.69; 95% confidence interval: 0.62-0.77) prior to death. Similar results held for the number of hospitalisations at 30 days (incidence rate ratio: 0.48; 95% confidence interval: 0.40-0.58), 60 days (incidence rate ratio: 0.71; 95% confidence interval: 0.62-0.82) and 90 days (incidence rate ratio: 0.77; 95% confidence interval: 0.68-0.88) prior to death. Our results demonstrated that by integrating services between acute care and home hospice care, a reduction in acute care service usage could occur. © The Author(s) 2016.

Prevalence of dry eye syndrome in an adult population.

PubMed

Hashemi, Hassan; Khabazkhoob, Mehdi; Kheirkhah, Ahmad; Emamian, Mohammad Hassan; Mehravaran, Shiva; Shariati, Mohammad; Fotouhi, Akbar

2014-04-01

To determine the prevalence of dry eye syndrome in the general 40- to 64-year-old population of Shahroud, Iran. Population-based cross-sectional study. Through cluster sampling, 6311 people were selected and 5190 participated. Assessment of dry eye was done in a random subsample of 1008 people. Subjective assessment for dry eye syndrome was performed using Ocular Surface Disease Index questionnaire. In addition, the following objective tests of dry eye syndrome were employed: Schirmer test, tear break-up time, and fluorescein and Rose Bengal staining using the Oxford grading scheme. Those with an Ocular Surface Disease Index score ≥23 were considered symptomatic, and dry eye syndrome was defined as having symptoms and at least one positive objective sign. The prevalence of dry eye syndrome was 8.7% (95% confidence interval 6.9-10.6). Assessment of signs showed an abnormal Schirmer score in 17.8% (95% confidence interval 15.5-20.0), tear break-up time in 34.2% (95% confidence interval 29.5-38.8), corneal fluorescein staining (≥1) in 11.3% (95% confidence interval 8.5-14.1) and Rose Bengal staining (≥3 for cornea and/or conjunctiva) in 4.9% (95% confidence interval 3.4-6.5). According to the Ocular Surface Disease Index scores, 18.3% (95% confidence interval 15.9-20.6) had dry eye syndrome symptoms. The prevalence of dry eye syndrome was significantly higher in women (P = 0.010) and not significantly associated with age (P = 0.291). The objective dry eye syndrome signs significantly increased with age. Based on the findings, the prevalence of dry eye syndrome in the studied population is in the mid-range. The prevalence is higher in women. Also, objective tests tend to turn abnormal at higher age. Pterygium is associated with dry eye syndrome and increased its symptoms. © 2013 Royal Australian and New Zealand College of Ophthalmologists.

The diagnostic value of narrow-band imaging for early and invasive lung cancer: a meta-analysis.

PubMed

Zhu, Juanjuan; Li, Wei; Zhou, Jihong; Chen, Yuqing; Zhao, Chenling; Zhang, Ting; Peng, Wenjia; Wang, Xiaojing

2017-07-01

This study aimed to compare the ability of narrow-band imaging to detect early and invasive lung cancer with that of conventional pathological analysis and white-light bronchoscopy. We searched the PubMed, EMBASE, Sinomed, and China National Knowledge Infrastructure databases for relevant studies. Meta-disc software was used to perform data analysis, meta-regression analysis, sensitivity analysis, and heterogeneity testing, and STATA software was used to determine if publication bias was present, as well as to calculate the relative risks for the sensitivity and specificity of narrow-band imaging vs those of white-light bronchoscopy for the detection of early and invasive lung cancer. A random-effects model was used to assess the diagnostic efficacy of the above modalities in cases in which a high degree of between-study heterogeneity was noted with respect to their diagnostic efficacies. The database search identified six studies including 578 patients. The pooled sensitivity and specificity of narrow-band imaging were 86% (95% confidence interval: 83-88%) and 81% (95% confidence interval: 77-84%), respectively, and the pooled sensitivity and specificity of white-light bronchoscopy were 70% (95% confidence interval: 66-74%) and 66% (95% confidence interval: 62-70%), respectively. The pooled relative risks for the sensitivity and specificity of narrow-band imaging vs the sensitivity and specificity of white-light bronchoscopy for the detection of early and invasive lung cancer were 1.33 (95% confidence interval: 1.07-1.67) and 1.09 (95% confidence interval: 0.84-1.42), respectively, and sensitivity analysis showed that narrow-band imaging exhibited good diagnostic efficacy with respect to detecting early and invasive lung cancer and that the results of the study were stable. Narrow-band imaging was superior to white light bronchoscopy with respect to detecting early and invasive lung cancer; however, the specificities of the two modalities did not differ significantly.

Antecedents and neuroimaging patterns in cerebral palsy with epilepsy and cognitive impairment: a population-based study in children born at term.

PubMed

Ahlin, Kristina; Jacobsson, Bo; Nilsson, Staffan; Himmelmann, Kate

2017-07-01

Antecedents of accompanying impairments in cerebral palsy and their relation to neuroimaging patterns need to be explored. A population-based study of 309 children with cerebral palsy born at term between 1983 and 1994. Prepartum, intrapartum, and postpartum variables previously studied as antecedents of cerebral palsy type and motor severity were analyzed in children with cerebral palsy and cognitive impairment and/or epilepsy, and in children with cerebral palsy without these accompanying impairments. Neuroimaging patterns and their relation to identified antecedents were analyzed. Data were retrieved from the cerebral palsy register of western Sweden, and from obstetric and neonatal records. Children with cerebral palsy and accompanying impairments more often had low birthweight (kg) (odds ratio 0.5, 95% confidence interval 0.3-0.8), brain maldevelopment known at birth (p = 0.007, odds ratio ∞) and neonatal infection (odds ratio 5.4, 95% confidence interval 1.04-28.4). Moreover, neuroimaging patterns of maldevelopment (odds ratio 7.2, 95% confidence interval 2.9-17.2), cortical/subcortical lesions (odds ratio 5.3, 95% confidence interval 2.3-12.2) and basal ganglia lesions (odds ratio 7.6, 95% confidence interval 1.4-41.3) were more common, wheras white matter injury was found significantly less often (odds ratio 0.2, 95% confidence interval 0.1-0.5). In most children with maldevelopment, the intrapartum and postpartum periods were uneventful (p < 0.05). Cerebral maldevelopment was associated with prepartum antecedents, whereas subcortical/cortical and basal ganglia lesions were associated with intrapartum and postpartum antecedents. No additional factor other than those related to motor impairment was associated with epilepsy and cognitive impairment in cerebral palsy. Timing of antecedents deemed important for the development of cerebral palsy with accompanying impairments were supported by neuroimaging patterns. © 2017 Nordic Federation of Societies of Obstetrics and Gynecology.

Breast cancer biology varies by method of detection and may contribute to overdiagnosis.

PubMed

Hayse, Brandon; Hooley, Regina J; Killelea, Brigid K; Horowitz, Nina R; Chagpar, Anees B; Lannin, Donald R

2016-08-01

Recently, it has been suggested that screening mammography may result in some degree of overdiagnosis (ie, detection of breast cancers that would never become clinically important within the lifespan of the patient). The extent and biology of these overdiagnosed cancers, however, is not well understood, and the effect of newer screening modalities on overdiagnosis is unknown. We performed a retrospective review of a prospectively collected database of breast cancers diagnosed at the Yale Breast Center from 2004-2014. The mode of initial presentation was categorized into 5 groups: screening mammogram, screening magnetic resonance imaging, screening ultrasonography, self-detected masses, and physician-detected masses. Compared with cancers presenting with masses, cancers detected by image-based screening were more likely to present with ductal carcinoma-in-situ or T1 cancers (P < .001). In addition to a simple stage shift, however, cancers detected by image-based screening were also more likely to be luminal and low-grade cancers; symptomatic cancers were more likely high-grade and triple-negative (P < .001, respectively). On a multivariate analysis, adjusting for age, race, and tumor size, cancers detected by mammogram, US, and magnetic resonance imaging had greater odds of being luminal (odds ratio 1.8, 95% confidence interval, 1.5-2.3; odds ratio 2.2, 95% confidence interval, 1.1-4.7; and odds ratio 4.7, 95% confidence interval, 2.1-10.6, respectively), and low-grade (odds ratio 2.2, 95% confidence interval, 1.6-2.9; odds ratio 4.9, 95% confidence interval, 2.7-8.9; and odds ratio 4.6, 95% confidence interval, 2.6-8.1, respectively) compared with cancers presenting with self-detected masses. Screening detects cancers with more indolent biology, potentially contributing to the observed rate of overdiagnosis. With magnetic resonance imaging and US being used more commonly for screening, the rate of overdiagnosis may increase further. Copyright © 2016. Published by Elsevier Inc.

Peritoneal Dialysis Access Revision in Children: Causes, Interventions, and Outcomes.

PubMed

Borzych-Duzalka, Dagmara; Aki, T Fazil; Azocar, Marta; White, Colin; Harvey, Elizabeth; Mir, Sevgi; Adragna, Marta; Serdaroglu, Erkin; Sinha, Rajiv; Samaille, Charlotte; Vanegas, Juan Jose; Kari, Jameela; Barbosa, Lorena; Bagga, Arvind; Galanti, Monica; Yavascan, Onder; Leozappa, Giovanna; Szczepanska, Maria; Vondrak, Karel; Tse, Kei-Chiu; Schaefer, Franz; Warady, Bradley A

2017-01-06

Little published information is available about access failure in children undergoing chronic peritoneal dialysis. Our objectives were to evaluate frequency, risk factors, interventions, and outcome of peritoneal dialysis access revision. Data were derived from 824 incident and 1629 prevalent patients from 105 pediatric nephrology centers enrolled in the International Pediatric Peritoneal Dialysis Network Registry between 2007 and 2015. In total, 452 access revisions were recorded in 321 (13%) of 2453 patients over 3134 patient-years of follow-up, resulting in an overall access revision rate of 0.14 per treatment year. Among 824 incident patients, 186 (22.6%) underwent 188 access revisions over 1066 patient-years, yielding an access revision rate of 0.17 per treatment year; 83% of access revisions in incident patients were reported within the first year of peritoneal dialysis treatment. Catheter survival rates in incident patients were 84%, 80%, 77%, and 73% at 12, 24, 36, and 48 months, respectively. By multivariate logistic regression analysis, risk of access revision was associated with younger age (odds ratio, 0.93; 95% confidence interval, 0.92 to 0.95; P<0.001), diagnosis of congenital anomalies of the kidney and urinary tract (odds ratio, 1.28; 95% confidence interval, 1.03 to 1.59; P=0.02), coexisting ostomies (odds ratio, 1.42; 95% confidence interval, 1.07 to 1.87; P=0.01), presence of swan neck tunnel with curled intraperitoneal portion (odds ratio, 1.30; 95% confidence interval, 1.04 to 1.63; P=0.02), and high gross national income (odds ratio, 1.10; 95% confidence interval, 1.02 to 1.19; P=0.01). Main reasons for access revisions included mechanical malfunction (60%), peritonitis (16%), exit site infection (12%), and leakage (6%). Need for access revision increased the risk of peritoneal dialysis technique failure or death (hazard ratio, 1.35; 95% confidence interval, 1.10 to 1.65; P=0.003). Access dysfunction due to mechanical causes doubled the risk of technique failure compared with infectious causes (hazard ratio, 1.95; 95% confidence interval, 1.20 to 2.30; P=0.03). Peritoneal dialysis catheter revisions are common in pediatric patients on peritoneal dialysis and complicate provision of chronic peritoneal dialysis. Attention to potentially modifiable risk factors by pediatric nephrologists and pediatric surgeons should be encouraged. Copyright © 2016 by the American Society of Nephrology.

Peritoneal Dialysis Access Revision in Children: Causes, Interventions, and Outcomes

PubMed Central

Aki, T. Fazil; Azocar, Marta; White, Colin; Harvey, Elizabeth; Mir, Sevgi; Adragna, Marta; Serdaroglu, Erkin; Sinha, Rajiv; Samaille, Charlotte; Vanegas, Juan Jose; Kari, Jameela; Barbosa, Lorena; Bagga, Arvind; Galanti, Monica; Yavascan, Onder; Leozappa, Giovanna; Szczepanska, Maria; Vondrak, Karel; Tse, Kei-Chiu; Schaefer, Franz; Warady, Bradley A.

2017-01-01

Background and objectives Little published information is available about access failure in children undergoing chronic peritoneal dialysis. Our objectives were to evaluate frequency, risk factors, interventions, and outcome of peritoneal dialysis access revision. Design, setting, participants, & measurements Data were derived from 824 incident and 1629 prevalent patients from 105 pediatric nephrology centers enrolled in the International Pediatric Peritoneal Dialysis Network Registry between 2007 and 2015. Results In total, 452 access revisions were recorded in 321 (13%) of 2453 patients over 3134 patient-years of follow-up, resulting in an overall access revision rate of 0.14 per treatment year. Among 824 incident patients, 186 (22.6%) underwent 188 access revisions over 1066 patient-years, yielding an access revision rate of 0.17 per treatment year; 83% of access revisions in incident patients were reported within the first year of peritoneal dialysis treatment. Catheter survival rates in incident patients were 84%, 80%, 77%, and 73% at 12, 24, 36, and 48 months, respectively. By multivariate logistic regression analysis, risk of access revision was associated with younger age (odds ratio, 0.93; 95% confidence interval, 0.92 to 0.95; P<0.001), diagnosis of congenital anomalies of the kidney and urinary tract (odds ratio, 1.28; 95% confidence interval, 1.03 to 1.59; P=0.02), coexisting ostomies (odds ratio, 1.42; 95% confidence interval, 1.07 to 1.87; P=0.01), presence of swan neck tunnel with curled intraperitoneal portion (odds ratio, 1.30; 95% confidence interval, 1.04 to 1.63; P=0.02), and high gross national income (odds ratio, 1.10; 95% confidence interval, 1.02 to 1.19; P=0.01). Main reasons for access revisions included mechanical malfunction (60%), peritonitis (16%), exit site infection (12%), and leakage (6%). Need for access revision increased the risk of peritoneal dialysis technique failure or death (hazard ratio, 1.35; 95% confidence interval, 1.10 to 1.65; P=0.003). Access dysfunction due to mechanical causes doubled the risk of technique failure compared with infectious causes (hazard ratio, 1.95; 95% confidence interval, 1.20 to 2.30; P=0.03). Conclusions Peritoneal dialysis catheter revisions are common in pediatric patients on peritoneal dialysis and complicate provision of chronic peritoneal dialysis. Attention to potentially modifiable risk factors by pediatric nephrologists and pediatric surgeons should be encouraged. PMID:27899416

Toxoplasma gondii exposure and epilepsy: A matched case-control study in a public hospital in northern Mexico.

PubMed

Alvarado-Esquivel, Cosme; Rico-Almochantaf, Yazmin Del Rosario; Hernández-Tinoco, Jesús; Quiñones-Canales, Gerardo; Sánchez-Anguiano, Luis Francisco; Torres-González, Jorge; Ramírez-Valles, Eda Guadalupe; Minjarez-Veloz, Andrea

2018-01-01

This study aimed to determine the association between infection with Toxoplasma gondii and epilepsy in patients attended to in a public hospital in the northern Mexican city of Durango. We performed an age- and gender-matched case-control study of 99 patients suffering from epilepsy and 99 without epilepsy. Sera of participants were analyzed for anti- T. gondii IgG and IgM antibodies using commercially available enzyme-linked immunoassays. Seropositive samples to T. gondii were further analyzed for detection of T. gondii DNA by polymerase chain reaction. Anti- T. gondii IgG antibodies were found in 10 (10.1%) of the 99 cases and in 6 (6.1%) of the 99 controls (odds ratio = 1.74; 95% confidence interval: 0.60-4.99; p = 0.43). High (> 150 IU/mL) levels of anti- T. gondii IgG antibodies were found in 6 of the 99 cases and in 4 of the 99 controls (odds ratio = 1.53; 95% confidence interval: 0.41-5.60; p = 0.74). Anti- T. gondii IgM antibodies were found in 2 of the 10 IgG seropositive cases, and in 2 of the 6 IgG seropositive controls (odds ratio = 0.50; 95% confidence interval: 0.05-4.97; p = 0.60). T. gondii DNA was not found in any of the 10 anti- T. gondii IgG positive patients. Bivariate analysis of IgG seropositivity to T. gondii and International Statistical Classification of Diseases and related Health Problems, 10th Edition codes of epilepsy showed an association between seropositivity and G40.1 code (odds ratio = 22.0; 95% confidence interval: 2.59-186.5; p = 0.008). Logistic regression analysis showed an association between T. gondii infection and consumption of goat meat (odds ratio = 6.5; 95% confidence interval: 1.22-34.64; p = 0.02), unwashed raw vegetables (odds ratio = 26.3; 95% confidence interval: 2.61-265.23; p = 0.006), and tobacco use (odds ratio = 6.2; 95% confidence interval: 1.06-36.66; p = 0.04). Results suggest that T. gondii infection does not increase the risk of epilepsy in our setting; however, infection might be linked to specific types of epilepsy. Factors associated with T. gondii infection found in this study may aid in the design of preventive measures against toxoplasmosis.

Association of protein tyrosine phosphatase, non-receptor type 22 +1858C→T polymorphism and susceptibility to vitiligo: Systematic review and meta-analysis.

PubMed

Agarwal, Silky; Changotra, Harish

2017-01-01

Protein tyrosine phosphatase, non-receptor type 22 gene, which translates to lymphoid tyrosine phosphatase, is considered to be a susceptibility gene marker associated with several autoimmune diseases. Several studies have demonstrated the association of protein tyrosine phosphatase, non-receptor type 22 +1858C→T polymorphism with vitiligo. However, these studies showed conflicting results. Meta-analysis of the same was conducted earlier that included fewer number of publications in their study. We performed a meta-analysis of a total of seven studies consisting of 2094 cases and 3613 controls to evaluate the possible association of protein tyrosine phosphatase, non-receptor type 22 +1858C>T polymorphism with vitiligo susceptibility. We conducted a literature search in PubMed, Google Scholar and Dogpile for all published paper on protein tyrosine phosphatase, non-receptor type 22 +1858C→T polymorphism and vitiligo risk till June 2016. Data analysis was performed by RevMan 5.3 and comprehensive meta-analysis v3.0 software. Meta-analysis showed an overall significant association of protein tyrosine phosphatase, non- receptor type 22 +1858C→T polymorphism with vitiligo in all models (allelic model [T vs. C]: odds ratio = 1.50, 95% confidence interval [1.32-1.71], P< 0.001; dominant model [TT + CT vs. CC]: odds ratio = 1.61, 95% confidence interval [1.16-2.24], P = 0.004; recessive model [TT vs. CT + CC]: odds ratio = 4.82, 95% confidence interval [1.11-20.92], P = 0.04; homozygous model [TT vs. CC]: odds ratio = 5.34, 95% confidence interval [1.23-23.24], P = 0.03; co-dominant model [CT vs. CC]: odds ratio = 1.52, 95% confidence interval [1.09-2.13], P = 0.01). No publication bias was detected in the funnel plot study. Limited ethnic-based studies, unable to satisfy data by gender or vitiligo-type are some limitations of the present meta-analysis. Stratifying data by ethnicity showed an association of protein tyrosine phosphatase, non-receptor type 22 +1858C→T with vitiligo in European population (odds ratio = 1.53, 95% confidence interval [1.34-1.75], P< 0.001) but not in Asian population (odds ratio = 0.59, 95% confidence interval [0.26-1.32], P = 0.2). In conclusion, protein tyrosine phosphatase, non-receptor type 22 +1858 T allele predisposes European individuals to vitiligo.

Validity of Computer Adaptive Tests of Daily Routines for Youth with Spinal Cord Injury

PubMed Central

Haley, Stephen M.

2013-01-01

Objective: To evaluate the accuracy of computer adaptive tests (CATs) of daily routines for child- and parent-reported outcomes following pediatric spinal cord injury (SCI) and to evaluate the validity of the scales. Methods: One hundred ninety-six daily routine items were administered to 381 youths and 322 parents. Pearson correlations, intraclass correlation coefficients (ICC), and 95% confidence intervals (CI) were calculated to evaluate the accuracy of simulated 5-item, 10-item, and 15-item CATs against the full-item banks and to evaluate concurrent validity. Independent samples t tests and analysis of variance were used to evaluate the ability of the daily routine scales to discriminate between children with tetraplegia and paraplegia and among 5 motor groups. Results: ICC and 95% CI demonstrated that simulated 5-, 10-, and 15-item CATs accurately represented the full-item banks for both child- and parent-report scales. The daily routine scales demonstrated discriminative validity, except between 2 motor groups of children with paraplegia. Concurrent validity of the daily routine scales was demonstrated through significant relationships with the FIM scores. Conclusion: Child- and parent-reported outcomes of daily routines can be obtained using CATs with the same relative precision of a full-item bank. Five-item, 10-item, and 15-item CATs have discriminative and concurrent validity. PMID:23671380

Development and Validation of a Photonumeric Scale for Evaluation of Volume Deficit of the Hand

PubMed Central

Donofrio, Lisa; Hardas, Bhushan; Murphy, Diane K.; Carruthers, Jean; Carruthers, Alastair; Sykes, Jonathan M.; Creutz, Lela; Marx, Ann; Dill, Sara

2016-01-01

BACKGROUND A validated scale is needed for objective and reproducible comparisons of hand appearance before and after treatment in practice and clinical studies. OBJECTIVE To describe the development and validation of the 5-point photonumeric Allergan Hand Volume Deficit Scale. METHODS The scale was developed to include an assessment guide, verbal descriptors, morphed images, and real-subject images for each grade. The clinical significance of a 1-point score difference was evaluated in a review of image pairs representing varying differences in severity. Interrater and intrarater reliability was evaluated in a live-subject validation study (N = 296) completed during 2 sessions occurring 3 weeks apart. RESULTS A score difference of ≥1 point was shown to reflect a clinically significant difference (mean [95% confidence interval] absolute score difference, 1.12 [0.99–1.26] for clinically different image pairs and 0.45 [0.33–0.57] for not clinically different pairs). Intrarater agreement between the 2 validation sessions was almost perfect (mean weighted kappa = 0.83). Interrater agreement was almost perfect during the second session (0.82, primary end point). CONCLUSION The Allergan Hand Volume Deficit Scale is a validated and reliable scale for physician rating of hand volume deficit. PMID:27661741

Development and Validation of a Photonumeric Scale for Evaluation of Facial Skin Texture

PubMed Central

Carruthers, Alastair; Hardas, Bhushan; Murphy, Diane K.; Carruthers, Jean; Jones, Derek; Sykes, Jonathan M.; Creutz, Lela; Marx, Ann; Dill, Sara

2016-01-01

BACKGROUND A validated scale is needed for objective and reproducible comparisons of facial skin roughness before and after aesthetic treatment in practice and in clinical studies. OBJECTIVE To describe the development and validation of the 5-point photonumeric Allergan Skin Roughness Scale. METHODS The scale was developed to include an assessment guide, verbal descriptors, morphed images, and real subject images for each grade. The clinical significance of a 1-point score difference was evaluated in a review of image pairs representing varying differences in severity. Interrater and intrarater reliability was evaluated in a live-subject validation study (N = 290) completed during 2 sessions occurring 3 weeks apart. RESULTS A score difference of ≥1 point was shown to reflect a clinically meaningful difference (mean [95% confidence interval] absolute score difference 1.09 [0.96–1.23] for clinically different image pairs and 0.53 [0.38–0.67] for not clinically different pairs). Intrarater agreement between the 2 validation sessions was almost perfect (weighted kappa = 0.83). Interrater agreement was almost perfect during the second rating session (0.81, primary end point). CONCLUSION The Allergan Skin Roughness Scale is a validated and reliable scale for physician rating of midface skin roughness. PMID:27661744

Development and Validation of a Photonumeric Scale for Evaluation of Volume Deficit of the Temple

PubMed Central

Jones, Derek; Hardas, Bhushan; Murphy, Diane K.; Donofrio, Lisa; Sykes, Jonathan M.; Carruthers, Alastair; Creutz, Lela; Marx, Ann; Dill, Sara

2016-01-01

BACKGROUND A validated scale is needed for objective and reproducible comparisons of temple appearance before and after aesthetic treatment in practice and clinical studies. OBJECTIVE To describe the development and validation of the 5-point photonumeric Allergan Temple Hollowing Scale. METHODS The scale was developed to include an assessment guide, verbal descriptors, morphed images, and real subject images for each grade. The clinical significance of a 1-point score difference was evaluated in a review of image pairs representing varying differences in severity. Interrater and intrarater reliability was evaluated in a live-subject validation study (N = 298) completed during 2 sessions occurring 3 weeks apart. RESULTS A score difference of ≥1 point was shown to reflect a clinically significant difference (mean [95% confidence interval] absolute score difference, 1.1 [0.94–1.26] for clinically different image pairs and 0.67 [0.51–0.83] for not clinically different pairs). Intrarater agreement between the 2 validation sessions was almost perfect (mean weighted kappa = 0.86). Interrater agreement was almost perfect during the second session (0.81, primary endpoint). CONCLUSION The Allergan Temple Hollowing Scale is a validated and reliable scale for physician rating of temple volume deficit. PMID:27661742

Validating Coherence Measurements Using Aligned and Unaligned Coherence Functions

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Miles, Jeffrey Hilton

2006-01-01

This paper describes a novel approach based on the use of coherence functions and statistical theory for sensor validation in a harsh environment. By the use of aligned and unaligned coherence functions and statistical theory one can test for sensor degradation, total sensor failure or changes in the signal. This advanced diagnostic approach and the novel data processing methodology discussed provides a single number that conveys this information. This number as calculated with standard statistical procedures for comparing the means of two distributions is compared with results obtained using Yuen's robust statistical method to create confidence intervals. Examination of experimental data from Kulite pressure transducers mounted in a Pratt & Whitney PW4098 combustor using spectrum analysis methods on aligned and unaligned time histories has verified the effectiveness of the proposed method. All the procedures produce good results which demonstrates how robust the technique is.

Reference datasets for bioequivalence trials in a two-group parallel design.

PubMed

Fuglsang, Anders; Schütz, Helmut; Labes, Detlew

2015-03-01

In order to help companies qualify and validate the software used to evaluate bioequivalence trials with two parallel treatment groups, this work aims to define datasets with known results. This paper puts a total 11 datasets into the public domain along with proposed consensus obtained via evaluations from six different software packages (R, SAS, WinNonlin, OpenOffice Calc, Kinetica, EquivTest). Insofar as possible, datasets were evaluated with and without the assumption of equal variances for the construction of a 90% confidence interval. Not all software packages provide functionality for the assumption of unequal variances (EquivTest, Kinetica), and not all packages can handle datasets with more than 1000 subjects per group (WinNonlin). Where results could be obtained across all packages, one showed questionable results when datasets contained unequal group sizes (Kinetica). A proposal is made for the results that should be used as validation targets.

Introduction, comparison, and validation of Meta‐Essentials: A free and simple tool for meta‐analysis

PubMed Central

van Rhee, Henk; Hak, Tony

2017-01-01

We present a new tool for meta‐analysis, Meta‐Essentials, which is free of charge and easy to use. In this paper, we introduce the tool and compare its features to other tools for meta‐analysis. We also provide detailed information on the validation of the tool. Although free of charge and simple, Meta‐Essentials automatically calculates effect sizes from a wide range of statistics and can be used for a wide range of meta‐analysis applications, including subgroup analysis, moderator analysis, and publication bias analyses. The confidence interval of the overall effect is automatically based on the Knapp‐Hartung adjustment of the DerSimonian‐Laird estimator. However, more advanced meta‐analysis methods such as meta‐analytical structural equation modelling and meta‐regression with multiple covariates are not available. In summary, Meta‐Essentials may prove a valuable resource for meta‐analysts, including researchers, teachers, and students. PMID:28801932

Characterization of Myocardial Repolarization Reserve in Adolescent Females With Anorexia Nervosa.

PubMed

Padfield, Gareth J; Escudero, Carolina A; DeSouza, Astrid M; Steinberg, Christian; Gibbs, Karen; Puyat, Joseph H; Lam, Pei Yoong; Sanatani, Shubhayan; Sherwin, Elizabeth; Potts, James E; Sandor, George; Krahn, Andrew D

2016-02-09

Patients with anorexia nervosa exhibit abnormal myocardial repolarization and are susceptible to sudden cardiac death. Exercise testing is useful in unmasking QT prolongation in disorders associated with abnormal repolarization. We characterized QT adaptation during exercise in anorexia. Sixty-one adolescent female patients with anorexia nervosa and 45 age- and sex-matched healthy volunteers performed symptom-limited cycle ergometry during 12-lead ECG monitoring. Changes in the QT interval during exercise were measured, and QT/RR-interval slopes were determined by using mixed-effects regression modeling. Patients had significantly lower body mass index than controls; however, resting heart rates and QT/QTc intervals were similar at baseline. Patients had shorter exercise times (13.7±4.5 versus 20.6±4.5 minutes; P<0.001) and lower peak heart rates (159±20 versus 184±9 beats/min; P<0.001). The mean QTc intervals were longer at peak exercise in patients (442±29 versus 422±19 ms; P<0.001). During submaximal exertion at comparable heart rates (114±6 versus 115±11 beats/min; P=0.54), the QTc interval had prolonged significantly more in patients than controls (37±28 versus 24±25 ms; P<0.016). The RR/QT slope, best described by a curvilinear relationship, was more gradual in patients than in controls (13.4; 95% confidence interval, 12.8-13.9 versus 15.8; 95% confidence interval, 15.3-16.4 ms QT change per 10% change in RR interval; P<0.001) and steepest in patients within the highest body mass index tertile versus the lowest (13.9; 95% confidence interval, 12.9-14.9 versus 12.3; 95% confidence interval, 11.3-13.3; P=0.026). Despite the absence of manifest QT prolongation, adolescent anorexic females have impaired repolarization reserve in comparison with healthy controls. Further study may identify impaired QT dynamics as a risk factor for arrhythmias in anorexia nervosa. © 2016 American Heart Association, Inc.

Accuracy assessment of percent canopy cover, cover type, and size class

Treesearch

H. T. Schreuder; S. Bain; R. C. Czaplewski

2003-01-01

Truth for vegetation cover percent and type is obtained from very large-scale photography (VLSP), stand structure as measured by size classes, and vegetation types from a combination of VLSP and ground sampling. We recommend using the Kappa statistic with bootstrap confidence intervals for overall accuracy, and similarly bootstrap confidence intervals for percent...

Confidence Intervals for Effect Sizes: Compliance and Clinical Significance in the "Journal of Consulting and Clinical Psychology"

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Odgaard, Eric C.; Fowler, Robert L.

2010-01-01

Objective: In 2005, the "Journal of Consulting and Clinical Psychology" ("JCCP") became the first American Psychological Association (APA) journal to require statistical measures of clinical significance, plus effect sizes (ESs) and associated confidence intervals (CIs), for primary outcomes (La Greca, 2005). As this represents the single largest…

Optimal and Most Exact Confidence Intervals for Person Parameters in Item Response Theory Models

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Doebler, Anna; Doebler, Philipp; Holling, Heinz

2013-01-01

The common way to calculate confidence intervals for item response theory models is to assume that the standardized maximum likelihood estimator for the person parameter [theta] is normally distributed. However, this approximation is often inadequate for short and medium test lengths. As a result, the coverage probabilities fall below the given…

SIMREL: Software for Coefficient Alpha and Its Confidence Intervals with Monte Carlo Studies

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Yurdugul, Halil

2009-01-01

This article describes SIMREL, a software program designed for the simulation of alpha coefficients and the estimation of its confidence intervals. SIMREL runs on two alternatives. In the first one, if SIMREL is run for a single data file, it performs descriptive statistics, principal components analysis, and variance analysis of the item scores…

Performing Contrast Analysis in Factorial Designs: From NHST to Confidence Intervals and Beyond

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Wiens, Stefan; Nilsson, Mats E.

2017-01-01

Because of the continuing debates about statistics, many researchers may feel confused about how to analyze and interpret data. Current guidelines in psychology advocate the use of effect sizes and confidence intervals (CIs). However, researchers may be unsure about how to extract effect sizes from factorial designs. Contrast analysis is helpful…

External Validation of the Universal Termination of Resuscitation Rule for Out-of-Hospital Cardiac Arrest in British Columbia.

PubMed

Grunau, Brian; Taylor, John; Scheuermeyer, Frank X; Stenstrom, Robert; Dick, William; Kawano, Takahisa; Barbic, David; Drennan, Ian; Christenson, Jim

2017-09-01

The Universal Termination of Resuscitation Rule (TOR Rule) was developed to identify out-of-hospital cardiac arrests eligible for field termination of resuscitation, avoiding futile transportation to the hospital. The validity of the rule in emergency medical services (EMS) systems that do not routinely transport out-of-hospital cardiac arrest patients to the hospital is unknown. We seek to validate the TOR Rule in British Columbia. This study included consecutive, nontraumatic, adult, out-of-hospital cardiac arrests treated by EMS in British Columbia from April 2011 to September 2015. We excluded patients with active do-not-resuscitate orders and those with missing data. Following consensus guidelines, we examined the validity of the TOR Rule after 6 minutes of resuscitation (to approximate three 2-minute cycles of resuscitation). To ascertain rule performance at the different time junctures, we recalculated TOR Rule classification accuracy at subsequent 1-minute resuscitation increments. Of 6,994 consecutive, adult, EMS-treated, out-of-hospital cardiac arrests, overall survival was 15%. At 6 minutes of resuscitation, rule performance was sensitivity 0.72, specificity 0.91, positive predictive value 0.98, and negative predictive value 0.36. The TOR Rule recommended care termination for 4,367 patients (62%); of these, 92 survived to hospital discharge (false-positive rate 2.1%; 95% confidence interval 1.7% to 2.5%); however, this proportion steadily decreased with later application. The TOR Rule recommended continuation of resuscitation in 2,627 patients (38%); of these, 1,674 died (false-negative rate 64%; 95% confidence interval 62% to 66%). Compared with 6-minute application, test characteristics at 30 minutes demonstrated nearly perfect positive predictive value (1.0) and specificity (1.0) but a lower sensitivity (0.46) and negative predictive value (0.25). In this cohort of adult out-of-hospital cardiac arrest patients, the TOR Rule applied at 6 minutes falsely recommended care termination for 2.1% of patients; however, this decreased with later application. Systems using the TOR Rule to cease resuscitation in the field should consider rule application at points later than 6 minutes. Copyright © 2017 American College of Emergency Physicians. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Frequency of depression in type 2 diabetes mellitus and an analysis of predictive factors.

PubMed

Arshad, Abdul Rehman; Alvi, Kamran Yousaf

2016-04-01

To determine frequency of depression in patients with diabetes mellitus type 2 and to identify predictive factors. The observational study was carried out at 1 Mountain Medical Battalion, Bagh, Azad Kashmir, Pakistan, from June 2013 to May 2014, and comprised type 2 diabetic patients who were not using anti-depressants and did not have history of other psychiatric illnesses. Demographic data, duration of diabetes, presence of hypertension and type of treatment were recorded and body mass index was calculated. Patient Health Questionnaire-9, translated into Urdu, was administered during face-to-face interviews. Scores >5 indicated depression, which was classified into different grades of severity using standard cut-off values. Of the 133 patients, 51(38.35%) were depressed. Depression was mild in 34(26%), moderate in 12(9.6%), moderately severe in 4(2.9%) and severe in 1(0.7%) patient. On univariate binary logistic regression, female gender (odds ratio=3.07; 95% confidence interval = 1.43, 6.59), lesser education (odds ratio = 0.90; 95% confidence interval 0.84, 0.97) shorter duration of diabetes (odds ratio=0.87; 95% confidence interval = 0.80, 0.96) and higher body mass index (odds ratio=1.41; 95% confidence interval = 1.05, 1.25) were significantly associated with depression. Only shorter duration of diabetes (odds ratio=0.90; 95% confidence interval = 0.82, 0.99) remained significant after adjustment for confounders. Age, level of education, glycaemic control and type of treatment did not predict depression. A significant proportion of type 2 diabetics were depressed. Shorter duration of diabetes reliably predicted depression in these patients.

EXACT DISTRIBUTIONS OF INTRACLASS CORRELATION AND CRONBACH'S ALPHA WITH GAUSSIAN DATA AND GENERAL COVARIANCE.

PubMed

Kistner, Emily O; Muller, Keith E

2004-09-01

Intraclass correlation and Cronbach's alpha are widely used to describe reliability of tests and measurements. Even with Gaussian data, exact distributions are known only for compound symmetric covariance (equal variances and equal correlations). Recently, large sample Gaussian approximations were derived for the distribution functions. New exact results allow calculating the exact distribution function and other properties of intraclass correlation and Cronbach's alpha, for Gaussian data with any covariance pattern, not just compound symmetry. Probabilities are computed in terms of the distribution function of a weighted sum of independent chi-square random variables. New F approximations for the distribution functions of intraclass correlation and Cronbach's alpha are much simpler and faster to compute than the exact forms. Assuming the covariance matrix is known, the approximations typically provide sufficient accuracy, even with as few as ten observations. Either the exact or approximate distributions may be used to create confidence intervals around an estimate of reliability. Monte Carlo simulations led to a number of conclusions. Correctly assuming that the covariance matrix is compound symmetric leads to accurate confidence intervals, as was expected from previously known results. However, assuming and estimating a general covariance matrix produces somewhat optimistically narrow confidence intervals with 10 observations. Increasing sample size to 100 gives essentially unbiased coverage. Incorrectly assuming compound symmetry leads to pessimistically large confidence intervals, with pessimism increasing with sample size. In contrast, incorrectly assuming general covariance introduces only a modest optimistic bias in small samples. Hence the new methods seem preferable for creating confidence intervals, except when compound symmetry definitely holds.

A prospective observational cohort study to assess the incidence of acute otitis media among children 0-5 years of age in Southern Brazil.

PubMed

Lanzieri, Tatiana M; Cunha, Clóvis Arns da; Cunha, Rejane B; Arguello, D Fermin; Devadiga, Raghavendra; Sanchez, Nervo; Barria, Eduardo Ortega

To estimate acute otitis media incidence among young children and impact on quality of life of parents/caregivers in a southern Brazilian city. Prospective cohort study including children 0-5 years of age registered at a private pediatric practice. Acute otitis media episodes diagnosed by a pediatrician and impact on quality of life of parents/caregivers were assessed during a 12-month follow-up. During September 2008-March 2010, of 1,136 children enrolled in the study, 1074 (95%) were followed: 55.0% were ≤2 years of age, 52.3% males, 94.7% white, and 69.2% had previously received pneumococcal vaccine in private clinics. Acute otitis media incidence per 1000 person-years was 95.7 (95% confidence interval: 77.2-117.4) overall, 105.5 (95% confidence interval: 78.3-139.0) in children ≤2 years of age and 63.6 (95% confidence interval: 43.2-90.3) in children 3-5 years of age. Acute otitis media incidence per 1000 person-years was 86.3 (95% confidence interval: 65.5-111.5) and 117.1 (95% confidence interval: 80.1-165.3) among vaccinated and unvaccinated children, respectively. Nearly 68.9% of parents reported worsening of their overall quality of life. Acute otitis media incidence among unvaccinated children in our study may be useful as baseline data to assess impact of pneumococcal vaccine introduction in the Brazilian National Immunization Program in April 2010. Copyright © 2017 Sociedade Brasileira de Infectologia. Published by Elsevier Editora Ltda. All rights reserved.

Risk factors for gametocyte carriage in uncomplicated falciparum malaria in children before and after artemisinin-based combination treatments.

PubMed

Sowunmi, Akintunde; Okuboyejo, Titilope M; Gbotosho, Grace O; Happi, Christian T

2011-01-01

Artemisinin-based combination treatments (ACTs) are the recommended first-line antimalarials globally, but their influence on the risk factors associated with gametocyte carriage has had little evaluation in endemic areas. The risk factors associated with gametocytaemia at presentation and after ACTs were evaluated in 835 children assigned to artesunate, artesunate-amodiaquine, artesunate-mefloquine or artemether-lumefantrine. Gametocyte carriage at enrolment was 8.4%. During follow-up, 24 patients (2.8%) developed gametocytaemia, which in 83% (20 patients) had developed by day 7 following treatment. In a multiple regression model, 2 factors were independent risk factors for the presence of gametocytaemia at enrolment, namely age <3 years (adjusted odds ratio 2.03, 95% confidence interval 1.01-4.05; p = 0.04) and enrolment before 2009 (adjusted odds ratio 4.2, 95% confidence interval 2.09-8.44; p < 0.001). Haematocrit <25% and parasitaemia <50,000/μl blood were associated with an increased risk of gametocytaemia. Following treatment, 3 factors were independent risk factors for gametocytaemia, namely gametocytaemia at enrolment (adjusted odds ratio 46.39, 95% confidence interval 22.3-96.46; p < 0.0001) and treatment with artesunate (adjusted odds ratio 6.74, 95% confidence interval 1.79-25.27; p = 0.005) or artesunate-mefloquine (adjusted odds ratio 9.66, 95% confidence interval 2.87-32.46; p < 0.0.0001) relative to other ACTs. ACTs modified the risk factors associated with gametocyte carriage after use. Copyright © 2012 S. Karger AG, Basel.

Weighted regression analysis and interval estimators

Treesearch

Donald W. Seegrist

1974-01-01

A method for deriving the weighted least squares estimators for the parameters of a multiple regression model. Confidence intervals for expected values, and prediction intervals for the means of future samples are given.

Validation of a new ENT emergencies course for first-on-call doctors.

PubMed

Swords, C; Smith, M E; Wasson, J D; Qayyum, A; Tysome, J R

2017-02-01

First-on-call ENT cover is often provided by junior doctors with limited ENT experience; yet, they may have to manage life-threatening emergencies. An intensive 1-day simulation course was developed to teach required skills to junior doctors. A prospective, single-blinded design was used. Thirty-seven participants rated their confidence before the course, immediately following the course and after a two-month interval. Blinded assessors scored participant performance in two video-recorded simulated scenarios before and after the course. Participant self-rated confidence was increased in the end-of-course survey (score of 27.5 vs 53.0; p < 0.0001), and this was maintained two to four months after the course (score of 50.5; p < 0.0001). Patient assessment and management in video-recorded emergency scenarios was significantly improved following course completion (score of 9.75 vs 18.75; p = 0.0093). This course represents an effective method of teaching ENT emergency management to junior doctors. ENT induction programmes benefit from the incorporation of a simulation component.

The PRECIS-2 tool has good interrater reliability and modest discriminant validity.

PubMed

Loudon, Kirsty; Zwarenstein, Merrick; Sullivan, Frank M; Donnan, Peter T; Gágyor, Ildikó; Hobbelen, Hans J S M; Althabe, Fernando; Krishnan, Jerry A; Treweek, Shaun

2017-08-01

PRagmatic Explanatory Continuum Indicator Summary (PRECIS)-2 is a tool that could improve design insight for trialists. Our aim was to validate the PRECIS-2 tool, unlike its predecessor, testing the discriminant validity and interrater reliability. Over 80 international trialists, methodologists, clinicians, and policymakers created PRECIS-2 helping to ensure face validity and content validity. The interrater reliability of PRECIS-2 was measured using 19 experienced trialists who used PRECIS-2 to score a diverse sample of 15 randomized controlled trial protocols. Discriminant validity was tested with two raters to independently determine if the trial protocols were more pragmatic or more explanatory, with scores from the 19 raters for the 15 trials as predictors of pragmatism. Interrater reliability was generally good, with seven of nine domains having an intraclass correlation coefficient over 0.65. Flexibility (adherence) and recruitment had wide confidence intervals, but raters found these difficult to rate and wanted more information. Each of the nine PRECIS-2 domains could be used to differentiate between trials taking more pragmatic or more explanatory approaches with better than chance discrimination for all domains. We have assessed the validity and reliability of PRECIS-2. An elaboration study and web site provide guidance to help future users of the tool which is continuing to be tested by trial teams, systematic reviewers, and funders. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

A Comparison of Elbow Range of Motion Measurements: Smartphone-Based Digital Photography Versus Goniometric Measurements.

PubMed

Meislin, Megan A; Wagner, Eric R; Shin, Alexander Y

2016-04-01

The purpose of this study was to validate elbow flexion and extension measured from smartphone photography obtained by participants and compared them with photographs obtained by surgeons and goniometric measurements. We enrolled 32 participants with a total of 64 elbows, aged 25 to 68 years. Participants obtained smartphone photographs of full elbow flexion and extension. Then surgeons obtained the same photographs and goniometric measurement of elbow range of motion (ROM). We measured ROM from the photographs using Adobe Photoshop and calculated average ROM. Comparisons of manual goniometer versus digital measurements, participant versus surgeon photograph measurements, and interobserver measurements were statistically analyzed. Average ROM measured by manual goniometer and digital photographs was 0° to 129° (range, 0° to 140°) and 0° to 129° (range, 0° to 145°), respectively. The goniometer versus digital measurements interclass correlation was 0.828 (L) and 0.740 (R). Pearson coefficient was 0.845 (L) and 0.757 (R). Bland-Altman plots demonstrated that 30 of 32 digital measurements (L) and 31 of 32 measurements (R) were within the 95% confidence interval. Participant-obtained photographs compared with researcher's photographs interclass correlation was 0.955 (L) and 0.941 (R), with a Pearson coefficient of 0.962 (L) and 0.957 (R), respectively. Reviewing interobserver reliability, concordance coefficients were 0.793 (L) and 0.767 (R) and Pearson coefficients were 0.811 (L) and 0.780 (R). Bland-Altman plots demonstrated that 28 of 32 digital measurements (L) and 26 of 32 measurements (R) were within the 95% confidence interval. Measuring elbow ROM using smartphone digital photography is valid and reliable. Participants were able to obtain accurate photographs and the measurements based on these photographs show no statistical difference from those taken by surgeons or goniometric measurement. This study validates using smartphone photography for measuring elbow ROM by laymen in a remote setting. Diagnostic II. Copyright © 2016 American Society for Surgery of the Hand. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Predicting Patient-specific Dosimetric Benefits of Proton Therapy for Skull-base Tumors Using a Geometric Knowledge-based Method

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Hall, David C.; Trofimov, Alexei V.; Winey, Brian A.

Purpose: To predict the organ at risk (OAR) dose levels achievable with proton beam therapy (PBT), solely based on the geometric arrangement of the target volume in relation to the OARs. A comparison with an alternative therapy yields a prediction of the patient-specific benefits offered by PBT. This could enable physicians at hospitals without proton capabilities to make a better-informed referral decision or aid patient selection in model-based clinical trials. Methods and Materials: Skull-base tumors were chosen to test the method, owing to their geometric complexity and multitude of nearby OARs. By exploiting the correlations between the dose and distance-to-targetmore » in existing PBT plans, the models were independently trained for 6 types of OARs: brainstem, cochlea, optic chiasm, optic nerve, parotid gland, and spinal cord. Once trained, the models could estimate the feasible dose–volume histogram and generalized equivalent uniform dose (gEUD) for OAR structures of new patients. The models were trained using 20 patients and validated using an additional 21 patients. Validation was achieved by comparing the predicted gEUD to that of the actual PBT plan. Results: The predicted and planned gEUD were in good agreement. Considering all OARs, the prediction error was +1.4 ± 5.1 Gy (mean ± standard deviation), and Pearson's correlation coefficient was 93%. By comparing with an intensity modulated photon treatment plan, the model could classify whether an OAR structure would experience a gain, with a sensitivity of 93% (95% confidence interval: 87%-97%) and specificity of 63% (95% confidence interval: 38%-84%). Conclusions: We trained and validated models that could quickly and accurately predict the patient-specific benefits of PBT for skull-base tumors. Similar models could be developed for other tumor sites. Such models will be useful when an estimation of the feasible benefits of PBT is desired but the experience and/or resources required for treatment planning are unavailable.« less

Reliability and validity of a questionnaire for self-assessment of complete dentures.

PubMed

Komagamine, Yuriko; Kanazawa, Manabu; Kaiba, Yoshinori; Sato, Yusuke; Minakuchi, Shunsuke

2014-05-02

Demand for complete denture treatment is expected to rise over several decades. However, to date, no questionnaire on complete dentures, as evaluated by edentulous patients, has been shown to be reliable and valid. This study sought to assess the reliability and validity of Patient's Denture Assessment (PDA), which provides a multidimensional evaluation of dentures among edentulous patients. Patients, who had new complete dentures fabricated at the University Hospital of Dentistry, Tokyo Medical and Dental University through 2009 to 2010, were enrolled. The reliability of the PDA was determined by examining internal consistency and test-retest reliability. Internal consistency for all of the question items and the six subscales was measured using Cronbach's α and average inter-item correlation coefficients among 93 participants. For 33 of these participants, test-retest reliability was determined at a 2 month-interval using the interclass correlation coefficients (ICCs) and 95% confidence interval for the summary scores and the six subscale scores. The PDA was validated in 93 participants by examining the difference in the summary score and the six subscale scores of the PDA before and after replacement with new dentures by the paired t-test. Ability to detect change was also tested in 93 patients using effect size. The Cronbach's α for the PDA ranged from 0.56 to 0.93. The average inter-item correlation coefficients ranged from 0.28 to 0.83. ICCs for the PDA ranged from 0.37 to 0.83. The paired t-test showed a significant difference between the summary score and the six subscale scores before and after replacement with new dentures (p < 0.05) and the effect size was 0.97. The PDA demonstrated good reliability by assessing internal consistency and test-retest reliability. In addition, the PDA demonstrated good validity by assessing discriminant validity. Thus, the PDA could help dentists obtain a detailed understanding of the patients' perceptions in using their dentures.

Intraclass Correlation Coefficients in Hierarchical Design Studies with Discrete Response Variables: A Note on a Direct Interval Estimation Procedure

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Raykov, Tenko; Marcoulides, George A.

2015-01-01

A latent variable modeling procedure that can be used to evaluate intraclass correlation coefficients in two-level settings with discrete response variables is discussed. The approach is readily applied when the purpose is to furnish confidence intervals at prespecified confidence levels for these coefficients in setups with binary or ordinal…

Monte Carlo simulation of parameter confidence intervals for non-linear regression analysis of biological data using Microsoft Excel.

PubMed

Lambert, Ronald J W; Mytilinaios, Ioannis; Maitland, Luke; Brown, Angus M

2012-08-01

This study describes a method to obtain parameter confidence intervals from the fitting of non-linear functions to experimental data, using the SOLVER and Analysis ToolPaK Add-In of the Microsoft Excel spreadsheet. Previously we have shown that Excel can fit complex multiple functions to biological data, obtaining values equivalent to those returned by more specialized statistical or mathematical software. However, a disadvantage of using the Excel method was the inability to return confidence intervals for the computed parameters or the correlations between them. Using a simple Monte-Carlo procedure within the Excel spreadsheet (without recourse to programming), SOLVER can provide parameter estimates (up to 200 at a time) for multiple 'virtual' data sets, from which the required confidence intervals and correlation coefficients can be obtained. The general utility of the method is exemplified by applying it to the analysis of the growth of Listeria monocytogenes, the growth inhibition of Pseudomonas aeruginosa by chlorhexidine and the further analysis of the electrophysiological data from the compound action potential of the rodent optic nerve. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

Influences of the Tamarisk Leaf Beetle (Diorhabda carinulata) on the diet of insectivorous birds along the Dolores River in Southwestern Colorado

USGS Publications Warehouse

Puckett, Sarah L.; van Riper, Charles

2014-01-01

We examined the effects of a biologic control agent, the tamarisk leaf beetle (Diorhabda carinulata), on native avifauna in southwestern Colorado, specifically, addressing whether and to what degree birds eat tamarisk leaf beetles. In 2010, we documented avian foraging behavior, characterized the arthropod community, sampled bird diets, and undertook an experiment to determine whether tamarisk leaf beetles are palatable to birds. We observed that tamarisk leaf beetles compose 24.0 percent (95-percent-confidence interval, 19.9-27.4 percent) and 35.4 percent (95-percent-confidence interval, 32.4-45.1 percent) of arthropod abundance and biomass in the study area, respectively. Birds ate few tamarisk leaf beetles, despite a superabundance of D. carinulata in the environment. The frequency of occurrence of tamarisk leaf beetles in bird diets was 2.1 percent (95-percent-confidence interval, 1.3- 2.9 percent) by abundance and 3.4 percent (95-percent-confidence interval, 2.6-4.2 percent) by biomass. Thus, tamarisk leaf beetles probably do not contribute significantly to the diets of birds in areas where biologic control of tamarisk is being applied.

Post-traumatic stress disorder in adolescents after a hurricane.

PubMed

Garrison, C Z; Weinrich, M W; Hardin, S B; Weinrich, S; Wang, L

1993-10-01

A school-based study conducted in 1990, 1 year after Hurricane Hugo, investigated the frequency and correlates of post-traumatic stress disorder (PTSD) in 1,264 adolescents aged 11-17 years residing in selected South Carolina communities. Data were collected via a 174-item self-administered questionnaire that included a PTSD symptom scale. A computer algorithm that applied decision rules of the Diagnostic and Statistical Manual of Mental Disorders, Third Edition, Revised to the symptoms reported was used to assign a diagnosis of PTSD and to designate the number of individuals who met the reexperiencing (20%), avoidance (9%), and arousal (18%) criteria. Rates of PTSD were lowest in black males (1.5%) and higher, but similar, in the remaining groups (3.8-6.2%). Results from a multivariable logistic model indicated that exposure to the hurricane (odds ratio (OR) = 1.26, 95% confidence interval 1.13-1.41), experiencing other violent traumatic events (OR = 2.46, 95% confidence interval 1.75-3.44), being white (OR = 2.03, 95% confidence interval 1.12-3.69) and being female (OR = 2.17, 95% confidence interval 1.15-4.10) were significant correlates of PTSD.

Bendectin and human congenital malformations.

PubMed

Shiono, P H; Klebanoff, M A

1989-08-01

The relationship between Bendectin exposure during the first trimester of pregnancy and the occurrence of congenital malformations was prospectively studied in 31,564 newborns registered in the Northern California Kaiser Permanente Birth Defects Study. The odds ratio for any major malformation and Bendectin use was 1.0 (95% confidence interval 0.8-1.4). There were 58 categories of congenital malformations; three of them were statistically associated with Bendectin exposure (microcephaly--odds ratio = 5.3, 95% confidence interval = 1.8-15.6; congenital cataract--odds ratio = 5.3, 95% confidence interval = 1.2-24.3; lung malformations (ICD-8 codes 484.4-484.8)--odds ratio = 4.6, 95% confidence interval = 1.9-10.9). This is exactly the number of associations that would be expected by chance. An independent study (the Collaborative Perinatal Project) was used to determine whether vomiting during pregnancy in the absence of Bendectin use was associated with these three malformations. Two of the three (microcephaly and cataract) had strong positive associations with vomiting in the absence of Bendectin use. We conclude that there is no increase in the overall rate of major malformations after exposure to Bendectin and that the three associations found between Bendectin and individual malformations are unlikely to be causal.

Confidence intervals for expected moments algorithm flood quantile estimates

USGS Publications Warehouse

Cohn, Timothy A.; Lane, William L.; Stedinger, Jery R.

2001-01-01

Historical and paleoflood information can substantially improve flood frequency estimates if appropriate statistical procedures are properly applied. However, the Federal guidelines for flood frequency analysis, set forth in Bulletin 17B, rely on an inefficient “weighting” procedure that fails to take advantage of historical and paleoflood information. This has led researchers to propose several more efficient alternatives including the Expected Moments Algorithm (EMA), which is attractive because it retains Bulletin 17B's statistical structure (method of moments with the Log Pearson Type 3 distribution) and thus can be easily integrated into flood analyses employing the rest of the Bulletin 17B approach. The practical utility of EMA, however, has been limited because no closed‐form method has been available for quantifying the uncertainty of EMA‐based flood quantile estimates. This paper addresses that concern by providing analytical expressions for the asymptotic variance of EMA flood‐quantile estimators and confidence intervals for flood quantile estimates. Monte Carlo simulations demonstrate the properties of such confidence intervals for sites where a 25‐ to 100‐year streamgage record is augmented by 50 to 150 years of historical information. The experiments show that the confidence intervals, though not exact, should be acceptable for most purposes.

Choline and betaine intake and the risk of colorectal cancer in men.

PubMed

Lee, Jung Eun; Giovannucci, Edward; Fuchs, Charles S; Willett, Walter C; Zeisel, Steven H; Cho, Eunyoung

2010-03-01

Dietary choline and betaine have been hypothesized to decrease the risk of cancer because of their role as methyl donors in the one-carbon metabolism. However, it remains unknown whether dietary intake of choline and betaine is associated with colorectal cancer risk. We prospectively examined the associations between dietary choline and betaine intake and risk of colorectal cancer in men in the Health Professionals Follow-up Study. We followed 47,302 men and identified a total of 987 incident colorectal cancer cases from 1986 to 2004. We assessed dietary and supplemental choline and betaine intake every 4 years using a validated semiquantitative food frequency questionnaire. The Cox proportional hazards model was used to estimate multivariate relative risks and 95% confidence intervals. All statistical tests were two-sided. We did not find any statistically significant associations between choline intake or betaine intake and risk of colorectal cancer. Comparing the top quintile with bottom quintile, multivariate relative risks (95% confidence interval) were 0.97 (0.79-1.20; P(trend) = 0.87) for choline intake and 0.94 (0.77-1.16; P(trend) = 0.79) for betaine intake. Similarly, we observed no associations between colorectal cancer risk and choline from free choline, glycerophosphocholine, phosphocholine, phosphatidylcholine, or sphingomyelin. Our data do not support the hypothesis that choline and betaine intake is inversely associated with colorectal cancer risk.

Meta-analysis: Association between hypoglycaemia and serious adverse events in older patients.

PubMed

Mattishent, Katharina; Loke, Yoon Kong

2016-07-01

We aimed to conduct a meta-analysis of serious adverse events (macro- and microvascular events, falls and fractures, death) associated with hypoglycaemia in older patients. We searched MEDLINE and EMBASE spanning a ten-year period up to March 2015 (with automated PubMed updates to October 2015). We selected observational studies reporting on hypoglycaemia and associated serious adverse events, and conducted a meta-analysis. We assessed study validity based on ascertainment of hypoglycaemia, adverse events and adjustment for confounders. We included 17 studies involving 1.86 million participants. Meta-analysis of eight studies demonstrated that hypoglycemic episodes were associated with macrovascular complications, odds ratio (OR) 1.83 (95% confidence interval [CI] 1.64, 2.05), and microvascular complications in two studies OR 1.77 (95% CI 1.49, 2.10). Meta-analysis of four studies demonstrated an association between hypoglycaemia and falls or fractures, OR 1.89 (95% CI 1.54, 2.32) and 1.92 (95% CI 1.56, 2.38) respectively. Hypoglycaemia was associated with increased likelihood of death in a meta-analysis of eight studies, OR 2.04 (95% Confidence Interval 1.68, 2.47). Our meta-analysis raises major concerns about a range of serious adverse events associated with hypoglycaemia. Clinicians should prioritize individualized therapy and closer monitoring strategies to avoid hypoglycaemia in susceptible older patients. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Dietary acrylamide intake and risk of breast cancer: The Japan Public Health Center-based Prospective Study.

PubMed

Kotemori, Ayaka; Ishihara, Junko; Zha, Ling; Liu, Rong; Sawada, Norie; Iwasaki, Motoki; Sobue, Tomotaka; Tsugane, Shoichiro

2018-03-01

Acrylamide forms during cooking and is classified as a probable carcinogen in humans, mandating the need for epidemiological studies of dietary acrylamide and cancers. However, the risk of dietary acrylamide exposure to breast cancer in Japanese women has not been assessed. We investigated the association between dietary acrylamide intake and risk of breast cancer in the Japan Public Health Center-based Prospective Study. The present study included 48 910 women aged 45-74 years who responded to a 5-year follow-up survey questionnaire. Dietary acrylamide intake was assessed using a validated food frequency questionnaire. Cox proportional hazards regression models were used to estimate hazard ratios and 95% confidence intervals. During an average of 15.4 years of follow up, 792 breast cancers were diagnosed. Energy-adjusted dietary acrylamide intake was not associated with the risk of breast cancer (adjusted hazard ratio for highest versus lowest tertile = .95, 95% confidence intervals: 0.79-1.14, P-trend = .58). Further, no significant associations were observed when stratified analyses were conducted by smoking status, coffee consumption, alcohol consumption, body mass index, menopausal status, estrogen receptor status, and progesterone receptor status. In conclusion, dietary acrylamide intake was not associated with the risk of breast cancer in this population-based prospective cohort study of Japanese women. © 2017 The Authors. Cancer Science published by John Wiley & Sons Australia, Ltd on behalf of Japanese Cancer Association.

Proximity to mining industry and respiratory diseases in children in a community in Northern Chile: A cross-sectional study.

PubMed

Herrera, Ronald; Radon, Katja; von Ehrenstein, Ondine S; Cifuentes, Stella; Muñoz, Daniel Moraga; Berger, Ursula

2016-06-07

In a community in northern Chile, explosive procedures are used by two local industrial mines (gold, copper). We hypothesized that the prevalence of asthma and rhinoconjunctivitis in the community may be associated with air pollution emissions generated by the mines. A cross-sectional study of 288 children (aged 6-15 years) was conducted in a community in northern Chile using a validated questionnaire in 2009. The proximity between each child's place of residence and the mines was assessed as indicator of exposure to mining related air pollutants. Logistic regression, semiparametric models and spatial Bayesian models with a parametric form for distance were used to calculate odds ratios and 95 % confidence intervals. The prevalence of asthma and rhinoconjunctivitis was 24 and 34 %, respectively. For rhinoconjunctivitis, the odds ratio for average distance between both mines and child's residence was 1.72 (95 % confidence interval 1.00, 3.04). The spatial Bayesian models suggested a considerable increase in the risk for respiratory diseases closer to the mines, and only beyond a minimum distance of more than 1800 m the health impact was considered to be negligible. The findings indicate that air pollution emissions related to industrial gold or copper mines mainly occurring in rural Chilean communities might increase the risk of respiratory diseases in children.

Identification of stable QTLs for seed oil content by combined linkage and association mapping in Brassica napus.

PubMed

Sun, Fengming; Liu, Jing; Hua, Wei; Sun, Xingchao; Wang, Xinfa; Wang, Hanzhong

2016-11-01

Seed oil content is an important agricultural trait in rapeseed breeding. Although numerous quantitative trait locus (QTL) have been identified, most of them cannot be applied in practical breeding mainly due to environmental instability or large confidence intervals. The purpose of this study was to identify and validate high quality and more stable QTLs by combining linkage mapping and genome-wide association study (GWAS). For linkage mapping, we constructed two F 2 populations from crosses of high-oil content (∼50%) lines 6F313 and 61616 with a low-oil content (∼40%) line 51070. Two high density linkage maps spanned 1987cM (1659 bins) and 1856cM (1746 bins), respectively. For GWAS, we developed more than 34,000 high-quality SNP markers based on 227 accessions. Finally, 40 QTLs and 29 associations were established by linkage and association mapping in different environments. After merging the results, 32 consensus QTLs were obtained and 7 of them were identified by both mapping methods. Seven overlapping QTLs covered an average confidence interval of 183kb and explained the phenotypic variation of 10.23 to 24.45%. We further developed allele-specific PCR primers to identify each of the seven QTLs. These stable QTLs should be useful in gene cloning and practical breeding application. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

Higher vitamin D intake during pregnancy is associated with reduced risk of dental caries in young Japanese children.

PubMed

Tanaka, Keiko; Hitsumoto, Shinichi; Miyake, Yoshihiro; Okubo, Hitomi; Sasaki, Satoshi; Miyatake, Nobuyuki; Arakawa, Masashi

2015-08-01

The intrauterine environment, including maternal nutrition status, may affect the development, formation, and mineralization of children's teeth. We assessed the relationship between self-reported maternal dietary vitamin D intake during pregnancy and the risk of dental caries among young Japanese children. This study is based on a prospective analysis of 1210 Japanese mother-child pairs. Information on maternal intake during pregnancy was collected using a validated diet history questionnaire. Data on oral examination at 36-46 months of age were obtained from the mothers, who transcribed the information from their maternal and child health handbooks to our self-administered questionnaire. Children were classified as having dental caries if one or more primary teeth had decayed or had been filled. Compared with the lowest quartile of maternal vitamin D intake during pregnancy, adjusted odds ratios (95% confidence intervals) for quartiles 2, 3, and 4 were 1.06 (0.72-1.56), 0.53 (0.34-0.81), and 0.67 (0.44-1.02), respectively (P for trend = .01). When maternal vitamin D intake was treated as a continuous variable, the adjusted odds ratio (95% confidence interval) was 0.94 (0.89-0.995). Higher maternal vitamin D intake during pregnancy may be associated with a lower risk of dental caries in children. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Efficacy and safety of recombinant activated factor vii in major surgical procedures: systematic review and meta-analysis of randomized clinical trials.

PubMed

Ranucci, Marco; Isgrò, Giuseppe; Soro, Giorgio; Conti, Daniela; De Toffol, Barbara

2008-03-01

To investigate the efficacy and safety of recombinant activated factor VII (rFVIIa) treatment in patients undergoing major surgical procedures. Relevant studies were searched in BioMedCentral, CENTRAL, PubMed, and PubMed Central. Only randomized controlled trials on humans undergoing major surgery were included. Efficacy was determined as the rate of patients receiving allogeneic packed red blood cells; safety was assessed in terms of thromboembolic complications and mortality rate. We followed the Cochrane Collaboration method for data extraction and internal validity procedures, as well as the Quality of Reporting of Meta-analyses statement. Seven randomized controlled trials met the inclusion criteria. Treatment with rFVIIa is associated with a reduced risk of receiving allogeneic packed red blood cells (odds ratio, 0.29; 95% confidence interval, 0.10-0.80). In a subgroup analysis, only patients receiving at least 50 mug/kg of rFVIIa had a significant benefit (odds ratio, 0.43; 95% confidence interval, 0.23-0.78). No differences in thromboembolic complications and mortality rates were observed. Treatment with rFVIIa is effective in reducing the rate of patients undergoing transfusion with allogeneic packed red blood cells. However, the cost-benefit ratio is favorable only in patients who need a huge number of packed red blood cell units. No safety concerns arise from the present study.

Branched-chain amino acid intake and the risk of diabetes in a Japanese community: the Takayama study.

PubMed

Nagata, Chisato; Nakamura, Kozue; Wada, Keiko; Tsuji, Michiko; Tamai, Yuya; Kawachi, Toshiaki

2013-10-15

Dietary supplementation with branched-chain amino acids (BCAAs), including leucine, isoleucine, and valine, has shown potential benefits for the metabolic profile. However, higher blood BCAA levels have been associated with insulin resistance. To our knowledge, there has been no study on dietary BCAAs and the risk of diabetes. We examined the association between BCAA intake and risk of diabetes in a population-based cohort study in Japan. A total of 13,525 residents of Takayama City, Japan, who enrolled in a cohort study in 1992 responded to a follow-up questionnaire seeking information about diabetes in 2002. Diet at baseline was assessed by means of a validated food frequency questionnaire. A high intake of BCAAs in terms of percentage of total protein was significantly associated with a decreased risk of diabetes in women after controlling for covariates; the hazard ratio for the highest tertile versus the lowest was 0.57 (95% confidence interval: 0.36, 0.90; P-trend = 0.02). In men, leucine intake was significantly marginally associated with the risk of diabetes; the hazard ratio for the highest tertile versus the lowest was 0.70 (95% confidence interval: 0.48, 1.02; P-trend = 0.06). Data suggest that a high intake of BCAAs may be associated with a decrease in the risk of diabetes.

Automated interpretation of home blood pressure assessment (Hy-Result software) versus physician's assessment: a validation study.

PubMed

Postel-Vinay, Nicolas; Bobrie, Guillaume; Ruelland, Alan; Oufkir, Majida; Savard, Sebastien; Persu, Alexandre; Katsahian, Sandrine; Plouin, Pierre F

2016-04-01

Hy-Result is the first software for self-interpretation of home blood pressure measurement results, taking into account both the recommended thresholds for normal values and patient characteristics. We compare the software-generated classification with the physician's evaluation. The primary assessment criterion was whether algorithm classification of the blood pressure (BP) status concurred with the physician's advice (blinded to the software's results) following a consultation (n=195 patients). Secondary assessment was the reliability of text messages. In the 58 untreated patients, the agreement between classification of the BP status generated by the software and the physician's classification was 87.9%. In the 137 treated patients, the agreement was 91.9%. The κ-test applied for all the patients was 0.81 (95% confidence interval: 0.73-0.89). After correction of errors identified in the algorithm during the study, agreement increased to 95.4% [κ=0.9 (95% confidence interval: 0.84-0.97)]. For 100% of the patients with comorbidities (n=46), specific text messages were generated, indicating that a physician might recommend a target BP lower than 135/85 mmHg. Specific text messages were also generated for 100% of the patients for whom global cardiovascular risks markedly exceeded norms. Classification by Hy-Result is at least as accurate as that of a specialist in current practice (http://www.hy-result.com).

Prediction of parenteral nutrition osmolarity by digital refractometry.

PubMed

Chang, Wei-Kuo; Yeh, Ming-Kung

2011-05-01

Infusion of high-osmolarity parenteral nutrition (PN) formulations into a peripheral vein will damage the vessel. In this study, the authors developed a refractometric method to predict PN formulation osmolarity for patients receiving PN. Nutrients in PN formulations were prepared for Brix value and osmolality measurement. Brix value and osmolality measurement of the dextrose, amino acids, and electrolytes were used to evaluate the limiting factor of PN osmolarity prediction. A best-fit equation was generated to predict PN osmolarity (mOsm/L): 81.05 × Brix value--116.33 (R(2) > 0.99). To validate the PN osmolarity prediction by these 4 equations, a total of 500 PN admixtures were tested. The authors found strong linear relationships between the Brix values and the osmolality measurement of dextrose (R(2) = 0.97), amino acids (R(2) = 0.99), and electrolytes (R(2) > 0.96). When PN-measured osmolality was between 600 and 900 mOsm/kg, approximately 43%, 29%, 43%, and 0% of the predicted osmolarity obtained by equations 1, 2, 3, and 4 were outside the acceptable 90% to 110% confidence interval range, respectively. When measured osmolality was between 900 and 1,500 mOsm/kg, 31%, 100%, 85%, and 15% of the predicted osmolarity by equations 1, 2, 3, and 4 were outside the acceptable 90% to 110% confidence interval range, respectively. The refractive method permits accurate PN osmolarity prediction and reasonable quality assurance before PN formulation administration.

Assessing the Representativeness of Population-Sampled Health Surveys Through Linkage to Administrative Data on Alcohol-Related Outcomes

PubMed Central

Gorman, Emma; Leyland, Alastair H.; McCartney, Gerry; White, Ian R.; Katikireddi, Srinivasa Vittal; Rutherford, Lisa; Graham, Lesley; Gray, Linsay

2014-01-01

Health surveys are an important resource for monitoring population health, but selective nonresponse may impede valid inference. This study aimed to assess nonresponse bias in a population-sampled health survey in Scotland, with a focus on alcohol-related outcomes. Nonresponse bias was assessed by examining whether rates of alcohol-related harm (i.e., hospitalization or death) and all-cause mortality among respondents to the Scottish Health Surveys (from 1995 to 2010) were equivalent to those in the general population, and whether the extent of any bias varied according to sociodemographic attributes or over time. Data from consenting respondents (aged 20–64 years) to 6 Scottish Health Surveys were confidentially linked to death and hospitalization records and compared with general population counterparts. Directly age-standardized incidence rates of alcohol-related harm and all-cause mortality were lower among Scottish Health Survey respondents compared with the general population. For all years combined, the survey-to-population rate ratios were 0.69 (95% confidence interval: 0.61, 0.76) for the incidence of alcohol-related harm and 0.89 (95% confidence interval: 0.83, 0.96) for all-cause mortality. Bias was more pronounced among persons residing in more deprived areas; limited evidence was found for regional or temporal variation. This suggests that corresponding underestimation of population rates of alcohol consumption is likely to be socially patterned. PMID:25227767

Effect of Radiotherapy Planning Complexity on Survival of Elderly Patients With Unresected Localized Lung Cancer

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Park, Chang H.; Bonomi, Marcelo; Cesaretti, Jamie

2011-11-01

Purpose: To evaluate whether complex radiotherapy (RT) planning was associated with improved outcomes in a cohort of elderly patients with unresected Stage I-II non-small-cell lung cancer (NSCLC). Methods and Materials: Using the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results registry linked to Medicare claims, we identified 1998 patients aged >65 years with histologically confirmed, unresected stage I-II NSCLC. Patients were classified into an intermediate or complex RT planning group using Medicare physician codes. To address potential selection bias, we used propensity score modeling. Survival of patients who received intermediate and complex simulation was compared using Cox regression models adjusting for propensity scoresmore » and in a stratified and matched analysis according to propensity scores. Results: Overall, 25% of patients received complex RT planning. Complex RT planning was associated with better overall (hazard ratio 0.84; 95% confidence interval, 0.75-0.95) and lung cancer-specific (hazard ratio 0.81; 95% confidence interval, 0.71-0.93) survival after controlling for propensity scores. Similarly, stratified and matched analyses showed better overall and lung cancer-specific survival of patients treated with complex RT planning. Conclusions: The use of complex RT planning is associated with improved survival among elderly patients with unresected Stage I-II NSCLC. These findings should be validated in prospective randomized controlled trials.« less

Validity and reliability of survey items and pictograms for use in a national household survey of tobacco use in Cambodia.

PubMed

Singh, Pramil N; Khieng, Sothy; Yel, Daravuth; Nguyen, Duc; Job, Jayakaran S

2013-09-01

The validity of survey measures of smoked and smokeless tobacco use in the Western Pacific Region is often unknown. We conducted a validation study (n = 201) in a random sample of rural adults in Cambodia. A comparison with salivary cotinine indicated (1) that survey items and pictograms of current tobacco use had an 87% (95% confidence interval [CI] = 78%-93%) sensitivity, 94% specificity (95% CI = 87%-98%), and 93% (95% CI = 85%-97%) positive predictive value in detecting cotinine levels >10 ng/mL; (2) a positive correlation with number of cigarettes smoked (R = 0.34; P = .01); and (3) a positive correlation with the amount of tobacco chewed (R = 0.44; P = .02). The validity of the index for the amount of smokeless tobacco used was enhanced by adding to the index the data from pictograms that were utilized to help participants estimate the amount of loose tobacco used per session. These tobacco items and pictograms were found to have excellent reliability (κ = 0.80-1) over 2 to 3 weeks. Interviewer-administered survey items and pictograms can provide an accurate, quantitative measure of smoked and smokeless tobacco use in rural Cambodia.

Establishment of reference intervals for plasma protein electrophoresis in Indo-Pacific green sea turtles, Chelonia mydas.

PubMed

Flint, Mark; Matthews, Beren J; Limpus, Colin J; Mills, Paul C

2015-01-01

Biochemical and haematological parameters are increasingly used to diagnose disease in green sea turtles. Specific clinical pathology tools, such as plasma protein electrophoresis analysis, are now being used more frequently to improve our ability to diagnose disease in the live animal. Plasma protein reference intervals were calculated from 55 clinically healthy green sea turtles using pulsed field electrophoresis to determine pre-albumin, albumin, α-, β- and γ-globulin concentrations. The estimated reference intervals were then compared with data profiles from clinically unhealthy turtles admitted to a local wildlife hospital to assess the validity of the derived intervals and identify the clinically useful plasma protein fractions. Eighty-six per cent {19 of 22 [95% confidence interval (CI) 65-97]} of clinically unhealthy turtles had values outside the derived reference intervals, including the following: total protein [six of 22 turtles or 27% (95% CI 11-50%)], pre-albumin [two of five, 40% (95% CI 5-85%)], albumin [13 of 22, 59% (95% CI 36-79%)], total albumin [13 of 22, 59% (95% CI 36-79%)], α- [10 of 22, 45% (95% CI 24-68%)], β- [two of 10, 20% (95% CI 3-56%)], γ- [one of 10, 10% (95% CI 0.3-45%)] and β-γ-globulin [one of 12, 8% (95% CI 0.2-38%)] and total globulin [five of 22, 23% (8-45%)]. Plasma protein electrophoresis shows promise as an accurate adjunct tool to identify a disease state in marine turtles. This study presents the first reference interval for plasma protein electrophoresis in the Indo-Pacific green sea turtle.

Validation of an International Statistical Classification of Diseases and Related Health Problems 10th Revision Coding Algorithm for Hospital Encounters with Hypoglycemia.

PubMed

Hodge, Meryl C; Dixon, Stephanie; Garg, Amit X; Clemens, Kristin K

2017-06-01

To determine the positive predictive value and sensitivity of an International Statistical Classification of Diseases and Related Health Problems, 10th Revision, coding algorithm for hospital encounters concerning hypoglycemia. We carried out 2 retrospective studies in Ontario, Canada. We examined medical records from 2002 through 2014, in which older adults (mean age, 76) were assigned at least 1 code for hypoglycemia (E15, E160, E161, E162, E1063, E1163, E1363, E1463). The positive predictive value of the algorithm was calculated using a gold-standard definition (blood glucose value <4 mmol/L or physician diagnosis of hypoglycemia). To determine the algorithm's sensitivity, we used linked healthcare databases to identify older adults (mean age, 77) with laboratory plasma glucose values <4 mmol/L during a hospital encounter that took place between 2003 and 2011. We assessed how frequently a code for hypoglycemia was present. We also examined the algorithm's performance in differing clinical settings (e.g. inpatient vs. emergency department, by hypoglycemia severity). The positive predictive value of the algorithm was 94.0% (95% confidence interval 89.3% to 97.0%), and its sensitivity was 12.7% (95% confidence interval 11.9% to 13.5%). It performed better in the emergency department and in cases of more severe hypoglycemia (plasma glucose values <3.5 mmol/L compared with ≥3.5 mmol/L). Our hypoglycemia algorithm has a high positive predictive value but is limited in sensitivity. Although we can be confident that older adults who are assigned 1 of these codes truly had a hypoglycemia event, many episodes will not be captured by studies using administrative databases. Copyright © 2017 Diabetes Canada. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Associations between maternal periconceptional exposure to secondhand tobacco smoke and major birth defects.

PubMed

Hoyt, Adrienne T; Canfield, Mark A; Romitti, Paul A; Botto, Lorenzo D; Anderka, Marlene T; Krikov, Sergey V; Tarpey, Morgan K; Feldkamp, Marcia L

2016-11-01

While associations between secondhand smoke and a few birth defects (namely, oral clefts and neural tube defects) have been noted in the scientific literature, to our knowledge, there is no single or comprehensive source of population-based information on its associations with a range of birth defects among nonsmoking mothers. We utilized data from the National Birth Defects Prevention Study, a large population-based multisite case-control study, to examine associations between maternal reports of periconceptional exposure to secondhand smoke in the household or workplace/school and major birth defects. The multisite National Birth Defects Prevention Study is the largest case-control study of birth defects to date in the United States. We selected cases from birth defect groups having >100 total cases, as well as all nonmalformed controls (10,200), from delivery years 1997 through 2009; 44 birth defects were examined. After excluding cases and controls from multiple births and whose mothers reported active smoking or pregestational diabetes, we analyzed data on periconceptional secondhand smoke exposure-encompassing the period 1 month prior to conception through the first trimester. For the birth defect craniosynostosis, we additionally examined the effect of exposure in the second and third trimesters as well due to the potential sensitivity to teratogens for this defect throughout pregnancy. Covariates included in all final models of birth defects with ≥5 exposed mothers were study site, previous live births, time between estimated date of delivery and interview date, maternal age at estimated date of delivery, race/ethnicity, education, body mass index, nativity, household income divided by number of people supported by this income, periconceptional alcohol consumption, and folic acid supplementation. For each birth defect examined, we used logistic regression analyses to estimate both crude and adjusted odds ratios and 95% confidence intervals for both isolated and total case groups for various sources of exposure (household only; workplace/school only; household and workplace/school; household or workplace/school). The prevalence of secondhand smoke exposure only across all sources ranged from 12.9-27.8% for cases and 14.5-15.8% for controls. The adjusted odds ratios for any vs no secondhand smoke exposure in the household or workplace/school and isolated birth defects were significantly elevated for neural tube defects (anencephaly: adjusted odds ratio, 1.66; 95% confidence interval, 1.22-2.25; and spina bifida: adjusted odds ratio, 1.49; 95% confidence interval, 1.20-1.86); orofacial clefts (cleft lip without cleft palate: adjusted odds ratio, 1.41; 95% confidence interval, 1.10-1.81; cleft lip with or without cleft palate: adjusted odds ratio, 1.24; 95% confidence interval, 1.05-1.46; cleft palate alone: adjusted odds ratio, 1.31; 95% confidence interval, 1.06-1.63); bilateral renal agenesis (adjusted odds ratio, 1.99; 95% confidence interval, 1.05-3.75); amniotic band syndrome-limb body wall complex (adjusted odds ratio, 1.66; 95% confidence interval, 1.10-2.51); and atrial septal defects, secundum (adjusted odds ratio, 1.37; 95% confidence interval, 1.09-1.72). There were no significant inverse associations observed. Additional studies replicating the findings are needed to better understand the moderate positive associations observed between periconceptional secondhand smoke and several birth defects in this analysis. Increased odds ratios resulting from chance (eg, multiple comparisons) or recall bias cannot be ruled out. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

New estimates of elasticity of demand for healthcare in rural China.

PubMed

Zhou, Zhongliang; Su, Yanfang; Gao, Jianmin; Xu, Ling; Zhang, Yaoguang

2011-12-01

Only limited empirical studies reported own-price elasticity of demand for health care in rural China. Neither research on income elasticity of demand for health care nor cross-price elasticity of demand for inpatient versus outpatient services in rural China has been reported. However, elasticity of demand is informative to evaluate current policy and to guide further policy making. Our study contributes to the literature by estimating three elasticities (i.e., own-price elasticity, cross-price elasticity, and income elasticity of demand for health care based on nationwide-representative data. We aim to answer three empirical questions with regard to health expenditure in rural China: (1) Which service is more sensitive to price change, outpatient or inpatient service? (2) Is outpatient service a substitute or complement to inpatient service? and (3) Does demand for inpatient services grow faster than demand for outpatient services with income growth? Based on data from a National Health Services Survey, a Probit regression model with probability of outpatient visit and probability of inpatient visit as dependent variables and a zero-truncated negative binomial regression model with outpatient visits as dependent variable were constructed to isolate the effects of price and income on demand for health care. Both pooled and separated regressions for 2003 and 2008 were conducted with tests of robustness. Own-price elasticities of demand for first outpatient visit, outpatient visits among users and first inpatient visit are -0.519 [95% confidence interval (-0.703, -0.336)], -0.547 [95% confidence interval (-0.747, -0.347)] and -0.372 [95% confidence interval (-0.517, -0.226)], respectively. Cross-price elasticities of demand for first outpatient visit, outpatient visits among users and first inpatient visit are 0.073 [95% confidence interval (-0.176, 0.322)], 0.308 [95% confidence interval (0.087, 0.528)], and 0.059 [95% confidence interval (-0.085, 0.204)], respectively. Income elasticities of demand for first outpatient visit, outpatient visits among users and first inpatient visit are 0.098 [95% confidence interval (0.018, 0.178)], 0.136 [95% confidence interval (0.028, 0.245)] and 0.521 [95% confidence interval (0.438, 0.605)], respectively. The aforementioned results are in 2008, which hold similar pattern as results in 2003 as well as results from pooled data of two periods. First, no significant difference is detected between sensitivity of outpatient services and sensitivity of inpatient services, responding to own-price change. Second, inpatient services are substitutes to outpatient services. Third, the growth of inpatient services is faster than the growth in outpatient services in response to income growth. The major findings from this paper suggest refining insurance policy in rural China. First, from a cost-effectiveness perspective, changing outpatient price is at least as effective as changing inpatient price to adjust demand of health care. Second, the current national guideline of healthcare reform to increase the reimbursement rate for inpatient services will crowd out outpatient services; however, we have no evidence about the change in demand for inpatient service if insurance covers outpatient services. Third, a referral system and gate-keeping system should be established to guide rural patients to utilize outpatient service. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

Confidence limit calculation for antidotal potency ratio derived from lethal dose 50

PubMed Central

Manage, Ananda; Petrikovics, Ilona

2013-01-01

AIM: To describe confidence interval calculation for antidotal potency ratios using bootstrap method. METHODS: We can easily adapt the nonparametric bootstrap method which was invented by Efron to construct confidence intervals in such situations like this. The bootstrap method is a resampling method in which the bootstrap samples are obtained by resampling from the original sample. RESULTS: The described confidence interval calculation using bootstrap method does not require the sampling distribution antidotal potency ratio. This can serve as a substantial help for toxicologists, who are directed to employ the Dixon up-and-down method with the application of lower number of animals to determine lethal dose 50 values for characterizing the investigated toxic molecules and eventually for characterizing the antidotal protections by the test antidotal systems. CONCLUSION: The described method can serve as a useful tool in various other applications. Simplicity of the method makes it easier to do the calculation using most of the programming software packages. PMID:25237618

Construction and validation of the fatigue impact and severity self-assessment for youth and young adults with cerebral palsy.

PubMed

Brunton, Laura K; Bartlett, Doreen J

2017-07-01

The Fatigue Impact and Severity Self-Assessment (FISSA) was created to assess the impact, severity, and self-management of fatigue for individuals with cerebral palsy (CP) aged 14-31 years. Items were generated from a review of measures and interviews with individuals with CP. Focus groups with health-care professionals were used for item reduction. A mailed survey was conducted (n=163/367) to assess the factor structure, known-groups validity, and test-retest reliability. The final measure contained 31 items in two factors and discriminated between individuals expected to have different levels of fatigue. Individuals with more functional abilities reported less fatigue (p < 0.002) and those with higher pain reported higher fatigue (p < 0.001). The FISSA was shown to have adequate test-retest reliability, intraclass correlation coefficient (ICC)(3,1)=0.74 (95% confidence interval [CI] 0.53-0.87). The FISSA valid and reliable for individuals with CP. It allows for identification of the activities that may be compromised by fatigue to enhance collaborative goal setting and intervention planning.

Predictive validity of the Sødring Motor Evaluation of Stroke Patients (SMES).

PubMed

Wyller, T B; Sødring, K M; Sveen, U; Ljunggren, A E; Bautz-Holter, E

1996-12-01

The Sødring Motor Evaluation of Stroke Patients (SMES) has been developed as an instrument for the evaluation by physiotherapists of motor function and activities in stroke patients. The predictive validity of the instrument was studied in a consecutive sample of 93 acute stroke patients, assessed in the acute phase and after one year. The outcome measures were: survival, residence at home or in institution, the Barthel ADL index (dichotomized at 19/20), and the Frenchay Activities Index (FAI) (dichotomized at 9/10). The SMES, scored in the acute phase, demonstrated a marginally significant predictive power regarding survival, but was a highly significant predictor regarding the other outcomes. The adjusted odds ratio for a good versus a poor outcome for patients in the upper versus the lower tertile of the SMES arm subscore was 5.4 (95% confidence interval 0.9-59) for survival, 11.5 (2.1-88) for living at home, 86.3 (11-infinity) for a high Barthel score, and 31.4 (5.2-288) for a high FAI score. We conclude that SMES has high predictive validity.

Convergent Validity, Concurrent Validity, and Diagnostic Accuracy of the interRAI Depression Rating Scale.

PubMed

Penny, Katherine; Barron, Alex; Higgins, Ann-Marie; Gee, Susan; Croucher, Matthew; Cheung, Gary

2016-09-19

Depression Rating Scale (DRS) is one of the clinical outcome measures of the International Resident Assessment Instrument (interRAI) assessment. The primary aim of this study is to investigate the diagnostic accuracy and concurrent validity of the 3-day assessment window version of the DRS. The performance of DRS was compared with a gold standard clinical diagnosis of depression in 92 patients (age ≥65) who had interRAI version 9.1 Home Care assessment completed within 30 days of discharge from psychogeriatric inpatient care or memory clinic assessment. The DRS had poor diagnostic accuracy for depression diagnosis with an area under the curve of 0.68 (95% confidence interval [CI] = 0.57-0.77). The DRS score had a poor to moderate correlation with the Health of the Nation Outcome Scale 65+ depression item score (r s = 0.30, 95% CI = 0.09-0.48, P = .006). This study and the existing literature raise concerns that the DRS is not an adequate measure of depression. © The Author(s) 2016.

Concurrent validity and reliability of the Simple Goniometer iPhone app compared with the Universal Goniometer.

PubMed

Jones, Anne; Sealey, Rebecca; Crowe, Michael; Gordon, Susan

2014-10-01

The aim of this study was to assess the concurrent validity and reliability of the Simple Goniometer (SG) iPhone® app compared to the Universal Goniometer (UG). Within subject comparison design comparing the UG with the SG app. James Cook University, Townsville, Queensland, Australia. Thirty-six volunteer participants, with a mean age of 60.6 years (SD 6.2). Not applicable. Thirty-six participants performed three standing lunges during which the knee joint angle was measured with the SG app and the UG. There were no significant differences in the measures of individual knee joint angles between the UG and the SG app. Pearson correlations of 0.96-0.98 and intraclass correlation coefficients of 0.97-0.99 (95% confidence interval: 0.95-1.00) were recorded for all measures. Using the Bland-Altman method, the standard error of the mean of the differences and the standard deviation of the mean of the differences were low. The measurements from the SG iPhone® app were reliable and possessed concurrent validity for this sample and protocol when compared to the UG.

Cross-cultural adaptation and validation of the Turkish version of the pain catastrophizing scale among patients with ankylosing spondylitis

PubMed Central

İlçin, Nursen; Gürpınar, Barış; Bayraktar, Deniz; Savcı, Sema; Çetin, Pınar; Sarı, İsmail; Akkoç, Nurullah

2016-01-01

[Purpose] This study describes the cultural adaptation, validation, and reliability of the Turkish version of the Pain Catastrophizing Scale in patients with ankylosing spondylitis. [Methods] The validity of the Turkish version of the Pain Catastrophizing Scale was assessed by evaluating data quality (missing data and floor and ceiling effects), principal components analysis, internal consistency (Cronbach’s alpha), and construct validity (Spearman’s rho). Reproducibility analyses included standard measurement error, minimum detectable change, limits of agreement, and intraclass correlation coefficients. [Results] Sixty-four adult patients with ankylosing spondylitis with a mean age of 42.2 years completed the study. Factor analysis revealed that all questionnaire items could be grouped into two factors. Excellent internal consistency was found, with a Chronbach’s alpha value of 0.95. Reliability analyses showed an intraclass correlation coefficient (95% confidence interval) of 0.96 for the total score. There was a low correlation coefficient between the Turkish version of the Pain Catastrophizing Scale and body mass index, pain levels at rest and during activity, health-related quality of life, and fear and avoidance behaviors. [Conclusion] The results of this study indicate that the Turkish version of the Pain Catastrophizing Scale is a valid and reliable clinical and research tool for patients with ankylosing spondylitis. PMID:26957778