validate model results: Topics by Science.gov

Sample records for validate model results

Computer simulation of Cerebral Arteriovenous Malformation-validation analysis of hemodynamics parameters.

PubMed

Kumar, Y Kiran; Mehta, Shashi Bhushan; Ramachandra, Manjunath

2017-01-01

The purpose of this work is to provide some validation methods for evaluating the hemodynamic assessment of Cerebral Arteriovenous Malformation (CAVM). This article emphasizes the importance of validating noninvasive measurements for CAVM patients, which are designed using lumped models for complex vessel structure. The validation of the hemodynamics assessment is based on invasive clinical measurements and cross-validation techniques with the Philips proprietary validated software's Qflow and 2D Perfursion. The modeling results are validated for 30 CAVM patients for 150 vessel locations. Mean flow, diameter, and pressure were compared between modeling results and with clinical/cross validation measurements, using an independent two-tailed Student t test. Exponential regression analysis was used to assess the relationship between blood flow, vessel diameter, and pressure between them. Univariate analysis is used to assess the relationship between vessel diameter, vessel cross-sectional area, AVM volume, AVM pressure, and AVM flow results were performed with linear or exponential regression. Modeling results were compared with clinical measurements from vessel locations of cerebral regions. Also, the model is cross validated with Philips proprietary validated software's Qflow and 2D Perfursion. Our results shows that modeling results and clinical results are nearly matching with a small deviation. In this article, we have validated our modeling results with clinical measurements. The new approach for cross-validation is proposed by demonstrating the accuracy of our results with a validated product in a clinical environment.
Methodology for Computational Fluid Dynamic Validation for Medical Use: Application to Intracranial Aneurysm.

PubMed

Paliwal, Nikhil; Damiano, Robert J; Varble, Nicole A; Tutino, Vincent M; Dou, Zhongwang; Siddiqui, Adnan H; Meng, Hui

2017-12-01

Computational fluid dynamics (CFD) is a promising tool to aid in clinical diagnoses of cardiovascular diseases. However, it uses assumptions that simplify the complexities of the real cardiovascular flow. Due to high-stakes in the clinical setting, it is critical to calculate the effect of these assumptions in the CFD simulation results. However, existing CFD validation approaches do not quantify error in the simulation results due to the CFD solver's modeling assumptions. Instead, they directly compare CFD simulation results against validation data. Thus, to quantify the accuracy of a CFD solver, we developed a validation methodology that calculates the CFD model error (arising from modeling assumptions). Our methodology identifies independent error sources in CFD and validation experiments, and calculates the model error by parsing out other sources of error inherent in simulation and experiments. To demonstrate the method, we simulated the flow field of a patient-specific intracranial aneurysm (IA) in the commercial CFD software star-ccm+. Particle image velocimetry (PIV) provided validation datasets for the flow field on two orthogonal planes. The average model error in the star-ccm+ solver was 5.63 ± 5.49% along the intersecting validation line of the orthogonal planes. Furthermore, we demonstrated that our validation method is superior to existing validation approaches by applying three representative existing validation techniques to our CFD and experimental dataset, and comparing the validation results. Our validation methodology offers a streamlined workflow to extract the "true" accuracy of a CFD solver.
Development and Validation of Methodology to Model Flow in Ventilation Systems Commonly Found in Nuclear Facilities. Phase I

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Strons, Philip; Bailey, James L.; Davis, John

2016-03-01

In this work, we apply the CFD in modeling airflow and particulate transport. This modeling is then compared to field validation studies to both inform and validate the modeling assumptions. Based on the results of field tests, modeling assumptions and boundary conditions are refined and the process is repeated until the results are found to be reliable with a high level of confidence.
Validation of the Economic and Health Outcomes Model of Type 2 Diabetes Mellitus (ECHO-T2DM).

PubMed

Willis, Michael; Johansen, Pierre; Nilsson, Andreas; Asseburg, Christian

2017-03-01

The Economic and Health Outcomes Model of Type 2 Diabetes Mellitus (ECHO-T2DM) was developed to address study questions pertaining to the cost-effectiveness of treatment alternatives in the care of patients with type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM). Naturally, the usefulness of a model is determined by the accuracy of its predictions. A previous version of ECHO-T2DM was validated against actual trial outcomes and the model predictions were generally accurate. However, there have been recent upgrades to the model, which modify model predictions and necessitate an update of the validation exercises. The objectives of this study were to extend the methods available for evaluating model validity, to conduct a formal model validation of ECHO-T2DM (version 2.3.0) in accordance with the principles espoused by the International Society for Pharmacoeconomics and Outcomes Research (ISPOR) and the Society for Medical Decision Making (SMDM), and secondarily to evaluate the relative accuracy of four sets of macrovascular risk equations included in ECHO-T2DM. We followed the ISPOR/SMDM guidelines on model validation, evaluating face validity, verification, cross-validation, and external validation. Model verification involved 297 'stress tests', in which specific model inputs were modified systematically to ascertain correct model implementation. Cross-validation consisted of a comparison between ECHO-T2DM predictions and those of the seminal National Institutes of Health model. In external validation, study characteristics were entered into ECHO-T2DM to replicate the clinical results of 12 studies (including 17 patient populations), and model predictions were compared to observed values using established statistical techniques as well as measures of average prediction error, separately for the four sets of macrovascular risk equations supported in ECHO-T2DM. Sub-group analyses were conducted for dependent vs. independent outcomes and for microvascular vs. macrovascular vs. mortality endpoints. All stress tests were passed. ECHO-T2DM replicated the National Institutes of Health cost-effectiveness application with numerically similar results. In external validation of ECHO-T2DM, model predictions agreed well with observed clinical outcomes. For all sets of macrovascular risk equations, the results were close to the intercept and slope coefficients corresponding to a perfect match, resulting in high R 2 and failure to reject concordance using an F test. The results were similar for sub-groups of dependent and independent validation, with some degree of under-prediction of macrovascular events. ECHO-T2DM continues to match health outcomes in clinical trials in T2DM, with prediction accuracy similar to other leading models of T2DM.
External validation of a Cox prognostic model: principles and methods

PubMed Central

2013-01-01

Background A prognostic model should not enter clinical practice unless it has been demonstrated that it performs a useful role. External validation denotes evaluation of model performance in a sample independent of that used to develop the model. Unlike for logistic regression models, external validation of Cox models is sparsely treated in the literature. Successful validation of a model means achieving satisfactory discrimination and calibration (prediction accuracy) in the validation sample. Validating Cox models is not straightforward because event probabilities are estimated relative to an unspecified baseline function. Methods We describe statistical approaches to external validation of a published Cox model according to the level of published information, specifically (1) the prognostic index only, (2) the prognostic index together with Kaplan-Meier curves for risk groups, and (3) the first two plus the baseline survival curve (the estimated survival function at the mean prognostic index across the sample). The most challenging task, requiring level 3 information, is assessing calibration, for which we suggest a method of approximating the baseline survival function. Results We apply the methods to two comparable datasets in primary breast cancer, treating one as derivation and the other as validation sample. Results are presented for discrimination and calibration. We demonstrate plots of survival probabilities that can assist model evaluation. Conclusions Our validation methods are applicable to a wide range of prognostic studies and provide researchers with a toolkit for external validation of a published Cox model. PMID:23496923
Web Based Semi-automatic Scientific Validation of Models of the Corona and Inner Heliosphere

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

MacNeice, P. J.; Chulaki, A.; Taktakishvili, A.; Kuznetsova, M. M.

2013-12-01

Validation is a critical step in preparing models of the corona and inner heliosphere for future roles supporting either or both the scientific research community and the operational space weather forecasting community. Validation of forecasting quality tends to focus on a short list of key features in the model solutions, with an unchanging order of priority. Scientific validation exposes a much larger range of physical processes and features, and as the models evolve to better represent features of interest, the research community tends to shift its focus to other areas which are less well understood and modeled. Given the more comprehensive and dynamic nature of scientific validation, and the limited resources available to the community to pursue this, it is imperative that the community establish a semi-automated process which engages the model developers directly into an ongoing and evolving validation process. In this presentation we describe the ongoing design and develpment of a web based facility to enable this type of validation of models of the corona and inner heliosphere, on the growing list of model results being generated, and on strategies we have been developing to account for model results that incorporate adaptively refined numerical grids.
Cross-validation pitfalls when selecting and assessing regression and classification models.

PubMed

Krstajic, Damjan; Buturovic, Ljubomir J; Leahy, David E; Thomas, Simon

2014-03-29

We address the problem of selecting and assessing classification and regression models using cross-validation. Current state-of-the-art methods can yield models with high variance, rendering them unsuitable for a number of practical applications including QSAR. In this paper we describe and evaluate best practices which improve reliability and increase confidence in selected models. A key operational component of the proposed methods is cloud computing which enables routine use of previously infeasible approaches. We describe in detail an algorithm for repeated grid-search V-fold cross-validation for parameter tuning in classification and regression, and we define a repeated nested cross-validation algorithm for model assessment. As regards variable selection and parameter tuning we define two algorithms (repeated grid-search cross-validation and double cross-validation), and provide arguments for using the repeated grid-search in the general case. We show results of our algorithms on seven QSAR datasets. The variation of the prediction performance, which is the result of choosing different splits of the dataset in V-fold cross-validation, needs to be taken into account when selecting and assessing classification and regression models. We demonstrate the importance of repeating cross-validation when selecting an optimal model, as well as the importance of repeating nested cross-validation when assessing a prediction error.
HBOI Underwater Imaging and Communication Research - Phase 1

DTIC Science & Technology

2012-04-19

validation of one-way pulse stretching radiative transfer code The objective was to develop and validate time-resolved radiative transfer models that...and validation of one-way pulse stretching radiative transfer code The models were subjected to a series of validation experiments over 12.5 meter...about the theoretical basis of the model together with validation results can be found in Dalgleish et al., (20 1 0). Forward scattering Mueller
Groundwater Model Validation

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Ahmed E. Hassan

2006-01-24

Models have an inherent uncertainty. The difficulty in fully characterizing the subsurface environment makes uncertainty an integral component of groundwater flow and transport models, which dictates the need for continuous monitoring and improvement. Building and sustaining confidence in closure decisions and monitoring networks based on models of subsurface conditions require developing confidence in the models through an iterative process. The definition of model validation is postulated as a confidence building and long-term iterative process (Hassan, 2004a). Model validation should be viewed as a process not an end result. Following Hassan (2004b), an approach is proposed for the validation process ofmore » stochastic groundwater models. The approach is briefly summarized herein and detailed analyses of acceptance criteria for stochastic realizations and of using validation data to reduce input parameter uncertainty are presented and applied to two case studies. During the validation process for stochastic models, a question arises as to the sufficiency of the number of acceptable model realizations (in terms of conformity with validation data). Using a hierarchical approach to make this determination is proposed. This approach is based on computing five measures or metrics and following a decision tree to determine if a sufficient number of realizations attain satisfactory scores regarding how they represent the field data used for calibration (old) and used for validation (new). The first two of these measures are applied to hypothetical scenarios using the first case study and assuming field data consistent with the model or significantly different from the model results. In both cases it is shown how the two measures would lead to the appropriate decision about the model performance. Standard statistical tests are used to evaluate these measures with the results indicating they are appropriate measures for evaluating model realizations. The use of validation data to constrain model input parameters is shown for the second case study using a Bayesian approach known as Markov Chain Monte Carlo. The approach shows a great potential to be helpful in the validation process and in incorporating prior knowledge with new field data to derive posterior distributions for both model input and output.« less
Prospective validation of pathologic complete response models in rectal cancer: Transferability and reproducibility.

PubMed

van Soest, Johan; Meldolesi, Elisa; van Stiphout, Ruud; Gatta, Roberto; Damiani, Andrea; Valentini, Vincenzo; Lambin, Philippe; Dekker, Andre

2017-09-01

Multiple models have been developed to predict pathologic complete response (pCR) in locally advanced rectal cancer patients. Unfortunately, validation of these models normally omit the implications of cohort differences on prediction model performance. In this work, we will perform a prospective validation of three pCR models, including information whether this validation will target transferability or reproducibility (cohort differences) of the given models. We applied a novel methodology, the cohort differences model, to predict whether a patient belongs to the training or to the validation cohort. If the cohort differences model performs well, it would suggest a large difference in cohort characteristics meaning we would validate the transferability of the model rather than reproducibility. We tested our method in a prospective validation of three existing models for pCR prediction in 154 patients. Our results showed a large difference between training and validation cohort for one of the three tested models [Area under the Receiver Operating Curve (AUC) cohort differences model: 0.85], signaling the validation leans towards transferability. Two out of three models had a lower AUC for validation (0.66 and 0.58), one model showed a higher AUC in the validation cohort (0.70). We have successfully applied a new methodology in the validation of three prediction models, which allows us to indicate if a validation targeted transferability (large differences between training/validation cohort) or reproducibility (small cohort differences). © 2017 American Association of Physicists in Medicine.
CheS-Mapper 2.0 for visual validation of (Q)SAR models

PubMed Central

2014-01-01

Background Sound statistical validation is important to evaluate and compare the overall performance of (Q)SAR models. However, classical validation does not support the user in better understanding the properties of the model or the underlying data. Even though, a number of visualization tools for analyzing (Q)SAR information in small molecule datasets exist, integrated visualization methods that allow the investigation of model validation results are still lacking. Results We propose visual validation, as an approach for the graphical inspection of (Q)SAR model validation results. The approach applies the 3D viewer CheS-Mapper, an open-source application for the exploration of small molecules in virtual 3D space. The present work describes the new functionalities in CheS-Mapper 2.0, that facilitate the analysis of (Q)SAR information and allows the visual validation of (Q)SAR models. The tool enables the comparison of model predictions to the actual activity in feature space. The approach is generic: It is model-independent and can handle physico-chemical and structural input features as well as quantitative and qualitative endpoints. Conclusions Visual validation with CheS-Mapper enables analyzing (Q)SAR information in the data and indicates how this information is employed by the (Q)SAR model. It reveals, if the endpoint is modeled too specific or too generic and highlights common properties of misclassified compounds. Moreover, the researcher can use CheS-Mapper to inspect how the (Q)SAR model predicts activity cliffs. The CheS-Mapper software is freely available at http://ches-mapper.org. Graphical abstract Comparing actual and predicted activity values with CheS-Mapper.
Validation of Groundwater Models: Meaningful or Meaningless?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Konikow, L. F.

2003-12-01

Although numerical simulation models are valuable tools for analyzing groundwater systems, their predictive accuracy is limited. People who apply groundwater flow or solute-transport models, as well as those who make decisions based on model results, naturally want assurance that a model is "valid." To many people, model validation implies some authentication of the truth or accuracy of the model. History matching is often presented as the basis for model validation. Although such model calibration is a necessary modeling step, it is simply insufficient for model validation. Because of parameter uncertainty and solution non-uniqueness, declarations of validation (or verification) of a model are not meaningful. Post-audits represent a useful means to assess the predictive accuracy of a site-specific model, but they require the existence of long-term monitoring data. Model testing may yield invalidation, but that is an opportunity to learn and to improve the conceptual and numerical models. Examples of post-audits and of the application of a solute-transport model to a radioactive waste disposal site illustrate deficiencies in model calibration, prediction, and validation.
Developing Enhanced Blood–Brain Barrier Permeability Models: Integrating External Bio-Assay Data in QSAR Modeling

PubMed Central

Wang, Wenyi; Kim, Marlene T.; Sedykh, Alexander

2015-01-01

Purpose Experimental Blood–Brain Barrier (BBB) permeability models for drug molecules are expensive and time-consuming. As alternative methods, several traditional Quantitative Structure-Activity Relationship (QSAR) models have been developed previously. In this study, we aimed to improve the predictivity of traditional QSAR BBB permeability models by employing relevant public bio-assay data in the modeling process. Methods We compiled a BBB permeability database consisting of 439 unique compounds from various resources. The database was split into a modeling set of 341 compounds and a validation set of 98 compounds. Consensus QSAR modeling workflow was employed on the modeling set to develop various QSAR models. A five-fold cross-validation approach was used to validate the developed models, and the resulting models were used to predict the external validation set compounds. Furthermore, we used previously published membrane transporter models to generate relevant transporter profiles for target compounds. The transporter profiles were used as additional biological descriptors to develop hybrid QSAR BBB models. Results The consensus QSAR models have R2=0.638 for fivefold cross-validation and R2=0.504 for external validation. The consensus model developed by pooling chemical and transporter descriptors showed better predictivity (R2=0.646 for five-fold cross-validation and R2=0.526 for external validation). Moreover, several external bio-assays that correlate with BBB permeability were identified using our automatic profiling tool. Conclusions The BBB permeability models developed in this study can be useful for early evaluation of new compounds (e.g., new drug candidates). The combination of chemical and biological descriptors shows a promising direction to improve the current traditional QSAR models. PMID:25862462
Refinement, Validation and Benchmarking of a Model for E-Government Service Quality

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Magoutas, Babis; Mentzas, Gregoris

This paper presents the refinement and validation of a model for Quality of e-Government Services (QeGS). We built upon our previous work where a conceptualized model was identified and put focus on the confirmatory phase of the model development process, in order to come up with a valid and reliable QeGS model. The validated model, which was benchmarked with very positive results with similar models found in the literature, can be used for measuring the QeGS in a reliable and valid manner. This will form the basis for a continuous quality improvement process, unleashing the full potential of e-government services for both citizens and public administrations.
Towards Automatic Validation and Healing of Citygml Models for Geometric and Semantic Consistency

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Alam, N.; Wagner, D.; Wewetzer, M.; von Falkenhausen, J.; Coors, V.; Pries, M.

2013-09-01

A steadily growing number of application fields for large 3D city models have emerged in recent years. Like in many other domains, data quality is recognized as a key factor for successful business. Quality management is mandatory in the production chain nowadays. Automated domain-specific tools are widely used for validation of business-critical data but still common standards defining correct geometric modeling are not precise enough to define a sound base for data validation of 3D city models. Although the workflow for 3D city models is well-established from data acquisition to processing, analysis and visualization, quality management is not yet a standard during this workflow. Processing data sets with unclear specification leads to erroneous results and application defects. We show that this problem persists even if data are standard compliant. Validation results of real-world city models are presented to demonstrate the potential of the approach. A tool to repair the errors detected during the validation process is under development; first results are presented and discussed. The goal is to heal defects of the models automatically and export a corrected CityGML model.
Use of the FDA nozzle model to illustrate validation techniques in computational fluid dynamics (CFD) simulations

PubMed Central

Hariharan, Prasanna; D’Souza, Gavin A.; Horner, Marc; Morrison, Tina M.; Malinauskas, Richard A.; Myers, Matthew R.

2017-01-01

A “credible” computational fluid dynamics (CFD) model has the potential to provide a meaningful evaluation of safety in medical devices. One major challenge in establishing “model credibility” is to determine the required degree of similarity between the model and experimental results for the model to be considered sufficiently validated. This study proposes a “threshold-based” validation approach that provides a well-defined acceptance criteria, which is a function of how close the simulation and experimental results are to the safety threshold, for establishing the model validity. The validation criteria developed following the threshold approach is not only a function of Comparison Error, E (which is the difference between experiments and simulations) but also takes in to account the risk to patient safety because of E. The method is applicable for scenarios in which a safety threshold can be clearly defined (e.g., the viscous shear-stress threshold for hemolysis in blood contacting devices). The applicability of the new validation approach was tested on the FDA nozzle geometry. The context of use (COU) was to evaluate if the instantaneous viscous shear stress in the nozzle geometry at Reynolds numbers (Re) of 3500 and 6500 was below the commonly accepted threshold for hemolysis. The CFD results (“S”) of velocity and viscous shear stress were compared with inter-laboratory experimental measurements (“D”). The uncertainties in the CFD and experimental results due to input parameter uncertainties were quantified following the ASME V&V 20 standard. The CFD models for both Re = 3500 and 6500 could not be sufficiently validated by performing a direct comparison between CFD and experimental results using the Student’s t-test. However, following the threshold-based approach, a Student’s t-test comparing |S-D| and |Threshold-S| showed that relative to the threshold, the CFD and experimental datasets for Re = 3500 were statistically similar and the model could be considered sufficiently validated for the COU. However, for Re = 6500, at certain locations where the shear stress is close the hemolysis threshold, the CFD model could not be considered sufficiently validated for the COU. Our analysis showed that the model could be sufficiently validated either by reducing the uncertainties in experiments, simulations, and the threshold or by increasing the sample size for the experiments and simulations. The threshold approach can be applied to all types of computational models and provides an objective way of determining model credibility and for evaluating medical devices. PMID:28594889
Use of the FDA nozzle model to illustrate validation techniques in computational fluid dynamics (CFD) simulations.

PubMed

Hariharan, Prasanna; D'Souza, Gavin A; Horner, Marc; Morrison, Tina M; Malinauskas, Richard A; Myers, Matthew R

2017-01-01

A "credible" computational fluid dynamics (CFD) model has the potential to provide a meaningful evaluation of safety in medical devices. One major challenge in establishing "model credibility" is to determine the required degree of similarity between the model and experimental results for the model to be considered sufficiently validated. This study proposes a "threshold-based" validation approach that provides a well-defined acceptance criteria, which is a function of how close the simulation and experimental results are to the safety threshold, for establishing the model validity. The validation criteria developed following the threshold approach is not only a function of Comparison Error, E (which is the difference between experiments and simulations) but also takes in to account the risk to patient safety because of E. The method is applicable for scenarios in which a safety threshold can be clearly defined (e.g., the viscous shear-stress threshold for hemolysis in blood contacting devices). The applicability of the new validation approach was tested on the FDA nozzle geometry. The context of use (COU) was to evaluate if the instantaneous viscous shear stress in the nozzle geometry at Reynolds numbers (Re) of 3500 and 6500 was below the commonly accepted threshold for hemolysis. The CFD results ("S") of velocity and viscous shear stress were compared with inter-laboratory experimental measurements ("D"). The uncertainties in the CFD and experimental results due to input parameter uncertainties were quantified following the ASME V&V 20 standard. The CFD models for both Re = 3500 and 6500 could not be sufficiently validated by performing a direct comparison between CFD and experimental results using the Student's t-test. However, following the threshold-based approach, a Student's t-test comparing |S-D| and |Threshold-S| showed that relative to the threshold, the CFD and experimental datasets for Re = 3500 were statistically similar and the model could be considered sufficiently validated for the COU. However, for Re = 6500, at certain locations where the shear stress is close the hemolysis threshold, the CFD model could not be considered sufficiently validated for the COU. Our analysis showed that the model could be sufficiently validated either by reducing the uncertainties in experiments, simulations, and the threshold or by increasing the sample size for the experiments and simulations. The threshold approach can be applied to all types of computational models and provides an objective way of determining model credibility and for evaluating medical devices.
A new framework to enhance the interpretation of external validation studies of clinical prediction models.

PubMed

Debray, Thomas P A; Vergouwe, Yvonne; Koffijberg, Hendrik; Nieboer, Daan; Steyerberg, Ewout W; Moons, Karel G M

2015-03-01

It is widely acknowledged that the performance of diagnostic and prognostic prediction models should be assessed in external validation studies with independent data from "different but related" samples as compared with that of the development sample. We developed a framework of methodological steps and statistical methods for analyzing and enhancing the interpretation of results from external validation studies of prediction models. We propose to quantify the degree of relatedness between development and validation samples on a scale ranging from reproducibility to transportability by evaluating their corresponding case-mix differences. We subsequently assess the models' performance in the validation sample and interpret the performance in view of the case-mix differences. Finally, we may adjust the model to the validation setting. We illustrate this three-step framework with a prediction model for diagnosing deep venous thrombosis using three validation samples with varying case mix. While one external validation sample merely assessed the model's reproducibility, two other samples rather assessed model transportability. The performance in all validation samples was adequate, and the model did not require extensive updating to correct for miscalibration or poor fit to the validation settings. The proposed framework enhances the interpretation of findings at external validation of prediction models. Copyright © 2015 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.
Validating Remotely Sensed Land Surface Evapotranspiration Based on Multi-scale Field Measurements

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jia, Z.; Liu, S.; Ziwei, X.; Liang, S.

2012-12-01

The land surface evapotranspiration plays an important role in the surface energy balance and the water cycle. There have been significant technical and theoretical advances in our knowledge of evapotranspiration over the past two decades. Acquisition of the temporally and spatially continuous distribution of evapotranspiration using remote sensing technology has attracted the widespread attention of researchers and managers. However, remote sensing technology still has many uncertainties coming from model mechanism, model inputs, parameterization schemes, and scaling issue in the regional estimation. Achieving remotely sensed evapotranspiration (RS_ET) with confident certainty is required but difficult. As a result, it is indispensable to develop the validation methods to quantitatively assess the accuracy and error sources of the regional RS_ET estimations. This study proposes an innovative validation method based on multi-scale evapotranspiration acquired from field measurements, with the validation results including the accuracy assessment, error source analysis, and uncertainty analysis of the validation process. It is a potentially useful approach to evaluate the accuracy and analyze the spatio-temporal properties of RS_ET at both the basin and local scales, and is appropriate to validate RS_ET in diverse resolutions at different time-scales. An independent RS_ET validation using this method was presented over the Hai River Basin, China in 2002-2009 as a case study. Validation at the basin scale showed good agreements between the 1 km annual RS_ET and the validation data such as the water balanced evapotranspiration, MODIS evapotranspiration products, precipitation, and landuse types. Validation at the local scale also had good results for monthly, daily RS_ET at 30 m and 1 km resolutions, comparing to the multi-scale evapotranspiration measurements from the EC and LAS, respectively, with the footprint model over three typical landscapes. Although some validation experiments demonstrated that the models yield accurate estimates at flux measurement sites, the question remains whether they are performing well over the broader landscape. Moreover, a large number of RS_ET products have been released in recent years. Thus, we also pay attention to the cross-validation method of RS_ET derived from multi-source models. "The Multi-scale Observation Experiment on Evapotranspiration over Heterogeneous Land Surfaces: Flux Observation Matrix" campaign is carried out at the middle reaches of the Heihe River Basin, China in 2012. Flux measurements from an observation matrix composed of 22 EC and 4 LAS are acquired to investigate the cross-validation of multi-source models over different landscapes. In this case, six remote sensing models, including the empirical statistical model, the one-source and two-source models, the Penman-Monteith equation based model, the Priestley-Taylor equation based model, and the complementary relationship based model, are used to perform an intercomparison. All the results from the two cases of RS_ET validation showed that the proposed validation methods are reasonable and feasible.
Validation of design procedure and performance modeling of a heat and fluid transport field experiment in the unsaturated zone

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nir, A.; Doughty, C.; Tsang, C. F.

Validation methods which developed in the context of deterministic concepts of past generations often cannot be directly applied to environmental problems, which may be characterized by limited reproducibility of results and highly complex models. Instead, validation is interpreted here as a series of activities, including both theoretical and experimental tests, designed to enhance our confidence in the capability of a proposed model to describe some aspect of reality. We examine the validation process applied to a project concerned with heat and fluid transport in porous media, in which mathematical modeling, simulation, and results of field experiments are evaluated in order to determine the feasibility of a system for seasonal thermal energy storage in shallow unsaturated soils. Technical details of the field experiments are not included, but appear in previous publications. Validation activities are divided into three stages. The first stage, carried out prior to the field experiments, is concerned with modeling the relevant physical processes, optimization of the heat-exchanger configuration and the shape of the storage volume, and multi-year simulation. Subjects requiring further theoretical and experimental study are identified at this stage. The second stage encompasses the planning and evaluation of the initial field experiment. Simulations are made to determine the experimental time scale and optimal sensor locations. Soil thermal parameters and temperature boundary conditions are estimated using an inverse method. Then results of the experiment are compared with model predictions using different parameter values and modeling approximations. In the third stage, results of an experiment performed under different boundary conditions are compared to predictions made by the models developed in the second stage. Various aspects of this theoretical and experimental field study are described as examples of the verification and validation procedure. There is no attempt to validate a specific model, but several models of increasing complexity are compared with experimental results. The outcome is interpreted as a demonstration of the paradigm proposed by van der Heijde, 26 that different constituencies have different objectives for the validation process and therefore their acceptance criteria differ also.

Automated finite element meshing of the lumbar spine: Verification and validation with 18 specimen-specific models.

PubMed

Campbell, J Q; Coombs, D J; Rao, M; Rullkoetter, P J; Petrella, A J

2016-09-06

The purpose of this study was to seek broad verification and validation of human lumbar spine finite element models created using a previously published automated algorithm. The automated algorithm takes segmented CT scans of lumbar vertebrae, automatically identifies important landmarks and contact surfaces, and creates a finite element model. Mesh convergence was evaluated by examining changes in key output variables in response to mesh density. Semi-direct validation was performed by comparing experimental results for a single specimen to the automated finite element model results for that specimen with calibrated material properties from a prior study. Indirect validation was based on a comparison of results from automated finite element models of 18 individual specimens, all using one set of generalized material properties, to a range of data from the literature. A total of 216 simulations were run and compared to 186 experimental data ranges in all six primary bending modes up to 7.8Nm with follower loads up to 1000N. Mesh convergence results showed less than a 5% difference in key variables when the original mesh density was doubled. The semi-direct validation results showed that the automated method produced results comparable to manual finite element modeling methods. The indirect validation results showed a wide range of outcomes due to variations in the geometry alone. The studies showed that the automated models can be used to reliably evaluate lumbar spine biomechanics, specifically within our intended context of use: in pure bending modes, under relatively low non-injurious simulated in vivo loads, to predict torque rotation response, disc pressures, and facet forces. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
Face, content, and construct validity of human placenta as a haptic training tool in neurointerventional surgery.

PubMed

Ribeiro de Oliveira, Marcelo Magaldi; Nicolato, Arthur; Santos, Marcilea; Godinho, Joao Victor; Brito, Rafael; Alvarenga, Alexandre; Martins, Ana Luiza Valle; Prosdocimi, André; Trivelato, Felipe Padovani; Sabbagh, Abdulrahman J; Reis, Augusto Barbosa; Maestro, Rolando Del

2016-05-01

OBJECT The development of neurointerventional treatments of central nervous system disorders has resulted in the need for adequate training environments for novice interventionalists. Virtual simulators offer anatomical definition but lack adequate tactile feedback. Animal models, which provide more lifelike training, require an appropriate infrastructure base. The authors describe a training model for neurointerventional procedures using the human placenta (HP), which affords haptic training with significantly fewer resource requirements, and discuss its validation. METHODS Twelve HPs were prepared for simulated endovascular procedures. Training exercises performed by interventional neuroradiologists and novice fellows were placental angiography, stent placement, aneurysm coiling, and intravascular liquid embolic agent injection. RESULTS The endovascular training exercises proposed can be easily reproduced in the HP. Face, content, and construct validity were assessed by 6 neurointerventional radiologists and 6 novice fellows in interventional radiology. CONCLUSIONS The use of HP provides an inexpensive training model for the training of neurointerventionalists. Preliminary validation results show that this simulation model has face and content validity and has demonstrated construct validity for the interventions assessed in this study.
SWAT model uncertainty analysis, calibration and validation for runoff simulation in the Luvuvhu River catchment, South Africa

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Thavhana, M. P.; Savage, M. J.; Moeletsi, M. E.

2018-06-01

The soil and water assessment tool (SWAT) was calibrated for the Luvuvhu River catchment, South Africa in order to simulate runoff. The model was executed through QSWAT which is an interface between SWAT and QGIS. Data from four weather stations and four weir stations evenly distributed over the catchment were used. The model was run for a 33-year period of 1983-2015. Sensitivity analysis, calibration and validation were conducted using the sequential uncertainty fitting (SUFI-2) algorithm through its interface with SWAT calibration and uncertainty procedure (SWAT-CUP). The calibration process was conducted for the period 1986 to 2005 while the validation process was from 2006 to 2015. Six model efficiency measures were used, namely: coefficient of determination (R2), Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency (NSE) index, root mean square error (RMSE)-observations standard deviation ratio (RSR), percent bias (PBIAS), probability (P)-factor and correlation coefficient (R)-factor were used. Initial results indicated an over-estimation of low flows with regression slope of less than 0.7. Twelve model parameters were applied for sensitivity analysis with four (ALPHA_BF, CN2, GW_DELAY and SOL_K) found to be more distinguishable and sensitive to streamflow (p < 0.05). The SUFI-2 algorithm through the interface with the SWAT-CUP was capable of capturing the model's behaviour, with calibration results showing an R2 of 0.63, NSE index of 0.66, RSR of 0.56 and a positive PBIAS of 16.3 while validation results revealed an R2 of 0.52, NSE of 0.48, RSR of 0.72 and PBIAS of 19.90. The model produced P-factor of 0.67 and R-factor of 0.68 during calibration and during validation, 0.69 and 0.53 respectively. Although performance indicators yielded fair and acceptable results, the P-factor was still below the recommended model performance of 70%. Apart from the unacceptable P-factor values, the results obtained in this study demonstrate acceptable model performance during calibration while validation results were still inconclusive. It can be concluded that calibration of the SWAT model yielded acceptable results with exception to validation results. Having said this, the model can be a useful tool for general water resources assessment and not for analysing hydrological extremes in the Luvuvhu River catchment.
Community-wide validation of geospace model local K-index predictions to support model transition to operations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Glocer, A.; Rastätter, L.; Kuznetsova, M.; Pulkkinen, A.; Singer, H. J.; Balch, C.; Weimer, D.; Welling, D.; Wiltberger, M.; Raeder, J.; Weigel, R. S.; McCollough, J.; Wing, S.

2016-07-01

We present the latest result of a community-wide space weather model validation effort coordinated among the Community Coordinated Modeling Center (CCMC), NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC), model developers, and the broader science community. Validation of geospace models is a critical activity for both building confidence in the science results produced by the models and in assessing the suitability of the models for transition to operations. Indeed, a primary motivation of this work is supporting NOAA/SWPC's effort to select a model or models to be transitioned into operations. Our validation efforts focus on the ability of the models to reproduce a regional index of geomagnetic disturbance, the local K-index. Our analysis includes six events representing a range of geomagnetic activity conditions and six geomagnetic observatories representing midlatitude and high-latitude locations. Contingency tables, skill scores, and distribution metrics are used for the quantitative analysis of model performance. We consider model performance on an event-by-event basis, aggregated over events, at specific station locations, and separated into high-latitude and midlatitude domains. A summary of results is presented in this report, and an online tool for detailed analysis is available at the CCMC.
Community-Wide Validation of Geospace Model Local K-Index Predictions to Support Model Transition to Operations

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Glocer, A.; Rastaetter, L.; Kuznetsova, M.; Pulkkinen, A.; Singer, H. J.; Balch, C.; Weimer, D.; Welling, D.; Wiltberger, M.; Raeder, J.;

2016-01-01

We present the latest result of a community-wide space weather model validation effort coordinated among the Community Coordinated Modeling Center (CCMC), NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC), model developers, and the broader science community. Validation of geospace models is a critical activity for both building confidence in the science results produced by the models and in assessing the suitability of the models for transition to operations. Indeed, a primary motivation of this work is supporting NOAA/SWPCs effort to select a model or models to be transitioned into operations. Our validation efforts focus on the ability of the models to reproduce a regional index of geomagnetic disturbance, the local K-index. Our analysis includes six events representing a range of geomagnetic activity conditions and six geomagnetic observatories representing midlatitude and high-latitude locations. Contingency tables, skill scores, and distribution metrics are used for the quantitative analysis of model performance. We consider model performance on an event-by-event basis, aggregated over events, at specific station locations, and separated into high-latitude and midlatitude domains. A summary of results is presented in this report, and an online tool for detailed analysis is available at the CCMC.

Combat Simulation Using Breach Computer Language

DTIC Science & Technology

1979-09-01

simulation and weapon system analysis computer language Two types of models were constructed: a stochastic duel and a dynamic engagement model The... duel model validates the BREACH approach by comparing results with mathematical solutions. The dynamic model shows the capability of the BREACH...BREACH 2 Background 2 The Language 3 Static Duel 4 Background and Methodology 4 Validation 5 Results 8 Tank Duel Simulation 8 Dynamic Assault Model
An Approach to Comprehensive and Sustainable Solar Wind Model Validation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rastaetter, L.; MacNeice, P. J.; Mays, M. L.; Boblitt, J. M.; Wiegand, C.

2017-12-01

The number of models of the corona and inner heliosphere and of their updates and upgrades grows steadily, as does the number and character of the model inputs. Maintaining up to date validation of these models, in the face of this constant model evolution, is a necessary but very labor intensive activity. In the last year alone, both NASA's LWS program and the CCMC's ongoing support of model forecasting activities at NOAA SWPC have sought model validation reports on the quality of all aspects of the community's coronal and heliospheric models, including both ambient and CME related wind solutions at L1. In this presentation I will give a brief review of the community's previous model validation results of L1 wind representation. I will discuss the semi-automated web based system we are constructing at the CCMC to present comparative visualizations of all interesting aspects of the solutions from competing models.This system is designed to be easily queried to provide the essential comprehensive inputs to repeat andupdate previous validation studies and support extensions to them. I will illustrate this by demonstrating how the system is being used to support the CCMC/LWS Model Assessment Forum teams focused on the ambient and time dependent corona and solar wind, including CME arrival time and IMF Bz.I will also discuss plans to extend the system to include results from the Forum teams addressing SEP model validation.
Model validation and error estimation of tsunami runup using high resolution data in Sadeng Port, Gunungkidul, Yogyakarta

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Basith, Abdul; Prakoso, Yudhono; Kongko, Widjo

2017-07-01

A tsunami model using high resolution geometric data is indispensable in efforts to tsunami mitigation, especially in tsunami prone areas. It is one of the factors that affect the accuracy results of numerical modeling of tsunami. Sadeng Port is a new infrastructure in the Southern Coast of Java which could potentially hit by massive tsunami from seismic gap. This paper discusses validation and error estimation of tsunami model created using high resolution geometric data in Sadeng Port. Tsunami model validation uses the height wave of Tsunami Pangandaran 2006 recorded by Tide Gauge of Sadeng. Tsunami model will be used to accommodate the tsunami numerical modeling involves the parameters of earthquake-tsunami which is derived from the seismic gap. The validation results using t-test (student) shows that the height of the tsunami modeling results and observation in Tide Gauge of Sadeng are considered statistically equal at 95% confidence level and the value of the RMSE and NRMSE are 0.428 m and 22.12%, while the differences of tsunami wave travel time is 12 minutes.
Temperature and heat flux datasets of a complex object in a fire plume for the validation of fire and thermal response codes.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Jernigan, Dann A.; Blanchat, Thomas K.

It is necessary to improve understanding and develop temporally- and spatially-resolved integral scale validation data of the heat flux incident to a complex object in addition to measuring the thermal response of said object located within the fire plume for the validation of the SIERRA/FUEGO/SYRINX fire and SIERRA/CALORE codes. To meet this objective, a complex calorimeter with sufficient instrumentation to allow validation of the coupling between FUEGO/SYRINX/CALORE has been designed, fabricated, and tested in the Fire Laboratory for Accreditation of Models and Experiments (FLAME) facility. Validation experiments are specifically designed for direct comparison with the computational predictions. Making meaningful comparisonmore » between the computational and experimental results requires careful characterization and control of the experimental features or parameters used as inputs into the computational model. Validation experiments must be designed to capture the essential physical phenomena, including all relevant initial and boundary conditions. This report presents the data validation steps and processes, the results of the penlight radiant heat experiments (for the purpose of validating the CALORE heat transfer modeling of the complex calorimeter), and the results of the fire tests in FLAME.« less
Object-oriented simulation model of a parabolic trough solar collector: Static and dynamic validation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ubieta, Eduardo; Hoyo, Itzal del; Valenzuela, Loreto; Lopez-Martín, Rafael; Peña, Víctor de la; López, Susana

2017-06-01

A simulation model of a parabolic-trough solar collector developed in Modelica® language is calibrated and validated. The calibration is performed in order to approximate the behavior of the solar collector model to a real one due to the uncertainty in some of the system parameters, i.e. measured data is used during the calibration process. Afterwards, the validation of this calibrated model is done. During the validation, the results obtained from the model are compared to the ones obtained during real operation in a collector from the Plataforma Solar de Almeria (PSA).
Hierarchical multi-scale approach to validation and uncertainty quantification of hyper-spectral image modeling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Engel, Dave W.; Reichardt, Thomas A.; Kulp, Thomas J.; Graff, David L.; Thompson, Sandra E.

2016-05-01

Validating predictive models and quantifying uncertainties inherent in the modeling process is a critical component of the HARD Solids Venture program [1]. Our current research focuses on validating physics-based models predicting the optical properties of solid materials for arbitrary surface morphologies and characterizing the uncertainties in these models. We employ a systematic and hierarchical approach by designing physical experiments and comparing the experimental results with the outputs of computational predictive models. We illustrate this approach through an example comparing a micro-scale forward model to an idealized solid-material system and then propagating the results through a system model to the sensor level. Our efforts should enhance detection reliability of the hyper-spectral imaging technique and the confidence in model utilization and model outputs by users and stakeholders.
Validation of Model Forecasts of the Ambient Solar Wind

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Macneice, P. J.; Hesse, M.; Kuznetsova, M. M.; Rastaetter, L.; Taktakishvili, A.

2009-01-01

Independent and automated validation is a vital step in the progression of models from the research community into operational forecasting use. In this paper we describe a program in development at the CCMC to provide just such a comprehensive validation for models of the ambient solar wind in the inner heliosphere. We have built upon previous efforts published in the community, sharpened their definitions, and completed a baseline study. We also provide first results from this program of the comparative performance of the MHD models available at the CCMC against that of the Wang-Sheeley-Arge (WSA) model. An important goal of this effort is to provide a consistent validation to all available models. Clearly exposing the relative strengths and weaknesses of the different models will enable forecasters to craft more reliable ensemble forecasting strategies. Models of the ambient solar wind are developing rapidly as a result of improvements in data supply, numerical techniques, and computing resources. It is anticipated that in the next five to ten years, the MHD based models will supplant semi-empirical potential based models such as the WSA model, as the best available forecast models. We anticipate that this validation effort will track this evolution and so assist policy makers in gauging the value of past and future investment in modeling support.
I-15 San Diego, California, model validation and calibration report.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2010-02-01

The Integrated Corridor Management (ICM) initiative requires the calibration and validation of simulation models used in the Analysis, Modeling, and Simulation of Pioneer Site proposed integrated corridors. This report summarizes the results and proc...
Multiple Versus Single Set Validation of Multivariate Models to Avoid Mistakes.

PubMed

Harrington, Peter de Boves

2018-01-02

Validation of multivariate models is of current importance for a wide range of chemical applications. Although important, it is neglected. The common practice is to use a single external validation set for evaluation. This approach is deficient and may mislead investigators with results that are specific to the single validation set of data. In addition, no statistics are available regarding the precision of a derived figure of merit (FOM). A statistical approach using bootstrapped Latin partitions is advocated. This validation method makes an efficient use of the data because each object is used once for validation. It was reviewed a decade earlier but primarily for the optimization of chemometric models this review presents the reasons it should be used for generalized statistical validation. Average FOMs with confidence intervals are reported and powerful, matched-sample statistics may be applied for comparing models and methods. Examples demonstrate the problems with single validation sets.
Validation of recent geopotential models in Tierra Del Fuego

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gomez, Maria Eugenia; Perdomo, Raul; Del Cogliano, Daniel

2017-10-01

This work presents a validation study of global geopotential models (GGM) in the region of Fagnano Lake, located in the southern Andes. This is an excellent area for this type of validation because it is surrounded by the Andes Mountains, and there is no terrestrial gravity or GNSS/levelling data. However, there are mean lake level (MLL) observations, and its surface is assumed to be almost equipotential. Furthermore, in this article, we propose improved geoid solutions through the Residual Terrain Modelling (RTM) approach. Using a global geopotential model, the results achieved allow us to conclude that it is possible to use this technique to extend an existing geoid model to those regions that lack any information (neither gravimetric nor GNSS/levelling observations). As GGMs have evolved, our results have improved progressively. While the validation of EGM2008 with MLL data shows a standard deviation of 35 cm, GOCO05C shows a deviation of 13 cm, similar to the results obtained on land.
Early Detection of Increased Intracranial Pressure Episodes in Traumatic Brain Injury: External Validation in an Adult and in a Pediatric Cohort.

PubMed

Güiza, Fabian; Depreitere, Bart; Piper, Ian; Citerio, Giuseppe; Jorens, Philippe G; Maas, Andrew; Schuhmann, Martin U; Lo, Tsz-Yan Milly; Donald, Rob; Jones, Patricia; Maier, Gottlieb; Van den Berghe, Greet; Meyfroidt, Geert

2017-03-01

A model for early detection of episodes of increased intracranial pressure in traumatic brain injury patients has been previously developed and validated based on retrospective adult patient data from the multicenter Brain-IT database. The purpose of the present study is to validate this early detection model in different cohorts of recently treated adult and pediatric traumatic brain injury patients. Prognostic modeling. Noninterventional, observational, retrospective study. The adult validation cohort comprised recent traumatic brain injury patients from San Gerardo Hospital in Monza (n = 50), Leuven University Hospital (n = 26), Antwerp University Hospital (n = 19), Tübingen University Hospital (n = 18), and Southern General Hospital in Glasgow (n = 8). The pediatric validation cohort comprised patients from neurosurgical and intensive care centers in Edinburgh and Newcastle (n = 79). None. The model's performance was evaluated with respect to discrimination, calibration, overall performance, and clinical usefulness. In the recent adult validation cohort, the model retained excellent performance as in the original study. In the pediatric validation cohort, the model retained good discrimination and a positive net benefit, albeit with a performance drop in the remaining criteria. The obtained external validation results confirm the robustness of the model to predict future increased intracranial pressure events 30 minutes in advance, in adult and pediatric traumatic brain injury patients. These results are a large step toward an early warning system for increased intracranial pressure that can be generally applied. Furthermore, the sparseness of this model that uses only two routinely monitored signals as inputs (intracranial pressure and mean arterial blood pressure) is an additional asset.
Validation in the Absence of Observed Events

DOE PAGES

Lathrop, John; Ezell, Barry

2015-07-22

Here our paper addresses the problem of validating models in the absence of observed events, in the area of Weapons of Mass Destruction terrorism risk assessment. We address that problem with a broadened definition of “Validation,” based on “backing up” to the reason why modelers and decision makers seek validation, and from that basis re-define validation as testing how well the model can advise decision makers in terrorism risk management decisions. We develop that into two conditions: Validation must be based on cues available in the observable world; and it must focus on what can be done to affect thatmore » observable world, i.e. risk management. That in turn leads to two foci: 1.) the risk generating process, 2.) best use of available data. Based on our experience with nine WMD terrorism risk assessment models, we then describe three best use of available data pitfalls: SME confidence bias, lack of SME cross-referencing, and problematic initiation rates. Those two foci and three pitfalls provide a basis from which we define validation in this context in terms of four tests -- Does the model: … capture initiation? … capture the sequence of events by which attack scenarios unfold? … consider unanticipated scenarios? … consider alternative causal chains? Finally, we corroborate our approach against three key validation tests from the DOD literature: Is the model a correct representation of the simuland? To what degree are the model results comparable to the real world? Over what range of inputs are the model results useful?« less
Exploring discrepancies between quantitative validation results and the geomorphic plausibility of statistical landslide susceptibility maps

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Steger, Stefan; Brenning, Alexander; Bell, Rainer; Petschko, Helene; Glade, Thomas

2016-06-01

Empirical models are frequently applied to produce landslide susceptibility maps for large areas. Subsequent quantitative validation results are routinely used as the primary criteria to infer the validity and applicability of the final maps or to select one of several models. This study hypothesizes that such direct deductions can be misleading. The main objective was to explore discrepancies between the predictive performance of a landslide susceptibility model and the geomorphic plausibility of subsequent landslide susceptibility maps while a particular emphasis was placed on the influence of incomplete landslide inventories on modelling and validation results. The study was conducted within the Flysch Zone of Lower Austria (1,354 km2) which is known to be highly susceptible to landslides of the slide-type movement. Sixteen susceptibility models were generated by applying two statistical classifiers (logistic regression and generalized additive model) and two machine learning techniques (random forest and support vector machine) separately for two landslide inventories of differing completeness and two predictor sets. The results were validated quantitatively by estimating the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC) with single holdout and spatial cross-validation technique. The heuristic evaluation of the geomorphic plausibility of the final results was supported by findings of an exploratory data analysis, an estimation of odds ratios and an evaluation of the spatial structure of the final maps. The results showed that maps generated by different inventories, classifiers and predictors appeared differently while holdout validation revealed similar high predictive performances. Spatial cross-validation proved useful to expose spatially varying inconsistencies of the modelling results while additionally providing evidence for slightly overfitted machine learning-based models. However, the highest predictive performances were obtained for maps that explicitly expressed geomorphically implausible relationships indicating that the predictive performance of a model might be misleading in the case a predictor systematically relates to a spatially consistent bias of the inventory. Furthermore, we observed that random forest-based maps displayed spatial artifacts. The most plausible susceptibility map of the study area showed smooth prediction surfaces while the underlying model revealed a high predictive capability and was generated with an accurate landslide inventory and predictors that did not directly describe a bias. However, none of the presented models was found to be completely unbiased. This study showed that high predictive performances cannot be equated with a high plausibility and applicability of subsequent landslide susceptibility maps. We suggest that greater emphasis should be placed on identifying confounding factors and biases in landslide inventories. A joint discussion between modelers and decision makers of the spatial pattern of the final susceptibility maps in the field might increase their acceptance and applicability.
Experimental Validation of a Thermoelastic Model for SMA Hybrid Composites

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Turner, Travis L.

2001-01-01

This study presents results from experimental validation of a recently developed model for predicting the thermomechanical behavior of shape memory alloy hybrid composite (SMAHC) structures, composite structures with an embedded SMA constituent. The model captures the material nonlinearity of the material system with temperature and is capable of modeling constrained, restrained, or free recovery behavior from experimental measurement of fundamental engineering properties. A brief description of the model and analysis procedures is given, followed by an overview of a parallel effort to fabricate and characterize the material system of SMAHC specimens. Static and dynamic experimental configurations for the SMAHC specimens are described and experimental results for thermal post-buckling and random response are presented. Excellent agreement is achieved between the measured and predicted results, fully validating the theoretical model for constrained recovery behavior of SMAHC structures.
Empirical validation of an agent-based model of wood markets in Switzerland

PubMed Central

Hilty, Lorenz M.; Lemm, Renato; Thees, Oliver

2018-01-01

We present an agent-based model of wood markets and show our efforts to validate this model using empirical data from different sources, including interviews, workshops, experiments, and official statistics. Own surveys closed gaps where data was not available. Our approach to model validation used a variety of techniques, including the replication of historical production amounts, prices, and survey results, as well as a historical case study of a large sawmill entering the market and becoming insolvent only a few years later. Validating the model using this case provided additional insights, showing how the model can be used to simulate scenarios of resource availability and resource allocation. We conclude that the outcome of the rigorous validation qualifies the model to simulate scenarios concerning resource availability and allocation in our study region. PMID:29351300

Towards a model-based patient selection strategy for proton therapy: External validation of photon-derived Normal Tissue Complication Probability models in a head and neck proton therapy cohort

PubMed Central

Blanchard, P; Wong, AJ; Gunn, GB; Garden, AS; Mohamed, ASR; Rosenthal, DI; Crutison, J; Wu, R; Zhang, X; Zhu, XR; Mohan, R; Amin, MV; Fuller, CD; Frank, SJ

2017-01-01

Objective To externally validate head and neck cancer (HNC) photon-derived normal tissue complication probability (NTCP) models in patients treated with proton beam therapy (PBT). Methods This prospective cohort consisted of HNC patients treated with PBT at a single institution. NTCP models were selected based on the availability of data for validation and evaluated using the leave-one-out cross-validated area under the curve (AUC) for the receiver operating characteristics curve. Results 192 patients were included. The most prevalent tumor site was oropharynx (n=86, 45%), followed by sinonasal (n=28), nasopharyngeal (n=27) or parotid (n=27) tumors. Apart from the prediction of acute mucositis (reduction of AUC of 0.17), the models overall performed well. The validation (PBT) AUC and the published AUC were respectively 0.90 versus 0.88 for feeding tube 6 months post-PBT; 0.70 versus 0.80 for physician rated dysphagia 6 months post-PBT; 0.70 versus 0.80 for dry mouth 6 months post-PBT; and 0.73 versus 0.85 for hypothyroidism 12 months post-PBT. Conclusion While the drop in NTCP model performance was expected in PBT patients, the models showed robustness and remained valid. Further work is warranted, but these results support the validity of the model-based approach for treatment selection for HNC patients. PMID:27641784
Perception of competence in middle school physical education: instrument development and validation.

PubMed

Scrabis-Fletcher, Kristin; Silverman, Stephen

2010-03-01

Perception of Competence (POC) has been studied extensively in physical activity (PA) research with similar instruments adapted for physical education (PE) research. Such instruments do not account for the unique PE learning environment. Therefore, an instrument was developed and the scores validated to measure POC in middle school PE. A multiphase design was used consisting of an intensive theoretical review, elicitation study, prepilot study, pilot study, content validation study, and final validation study (N=1281). Data analysis included a multistep iterative process to identify the best model fit. A three-factor model for POC was tested and resulted in root mean square error of approximation = .09, root mean square residual = .07, goodness offit index = .90, and adjusted goodness offit index = .86 values in the acceptable range (Hu & Bentler, 1999). A two-factor model was also tested and resulted in a good fit (two-factor fit indexes values = .05, .03, .98, .97, respectively). The results of this study suggest that an instrument using a three- or two-factor model provides reliable and valid scores ofPOC measurement in middle school PE.
Hierarchical Multi-Scale Approach To Validation and Uncertainty Quantification of Hyper-Spectral Image Modeling

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Engel, David W.; Reichardt, Thomas A.; Kulp, Thomas J.

Validating predictive models and quantifying uncertainties inherent in the modeling process is a critical component of the HARD Solids Venture program [1]. Our current research focuses on validating physics-based models predicting the optical properties of solid materials for arbitrary surface morphologies and characterizing the uncertainties in these models. We employ a systematic and hierarchical approach by designing physical experiments and comparing the experimental results with the outputs of computational predictive models. We illustrate this approach through an example comparing a micro-scale forward model to an idealized solid-material system and then propagating the results through a system model to the sensormore » level. Our efforts should enhance detection reliability of the hyper-spectral imaging technique and the confidence in model utilization and model outputs by users and stakeholders.« less
OC5 Project Phase II: Validation of Global Loads of the DeepCwind Floating Semisubmersible Wind Turbine

DOE PAGES

Robertson, Amy N.; Wendt, Fabian; Jonkman, Jason M.; ...

2017-10-01

This paper summarizes the findings from Phase II of the Offshore Code Comparison, Collaboration, Continued, with Correlation project. The project is run under the International Energy Agency Wind Research Task 30, and is focused on validating the tools used for modeling offshore wind systems through the comparison of simulated responses of select system designs to physical test data. Validation activities such as these lead to improvement of offshore wind modeling tools, which will enable the development of more innovative and cost-effective offshore wind designs. For Phase II of the project, numerical models of the DeepCwind floating semisubmersible wind system weremore » validated using measurement data from a 1/50th-scale validation campaign performed at the Maritime Research Institute Netherlands offshore wave basin. Validation of the models was performed by comparing the calculated ultimate and fatigue loads for eight different wave-only and combined wind/wave test cases against the measured data, after calibration was performed using free-decay, wind-only, and wave-only tests. The results show a decent estimation of both the ultimate and fatigue loads for the simulated results, but with a fairly consistent underestimation in the tower and upwind mooring line loads that can be attributed to an underestimation of wave-excitation forces outside the linear wave-excitation region, and the presence of broadband frequency excitation in the experimental measurements from wind. Participant results showed varied agreement with the experimental measurements based on the modeling approach used. Modeling attributes that enabled better agreement included: the use of a dynamic mooring model; wave stretching, or some other hydrodynamic modeling approach that excites frequencies outside the linear wave region; nonlinear wave kinematics models; and unsteady aerodynamics models. Also, it was observed that a Morison-only hydrodynamic modeling approach could create excessive pitch excitation and resulting tower loads in some frequency bands.« less
OC5 Project Phase II: Validation of Global Loads of the DeepCwind Floating Semisubmersible Wind Turbine

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Robertson, Amy N.; Wendt, Fabian; Jonkman, Jason M.

This paper summarizes the findings from Phase II of the Offshore Code Comparison, Collaboration, Continued, with Correlation project. The project is run under the International Energy Agency Wind Research Task 30, and is focused on validating the tools used for modeling offshore wind systems through the comparison of simulated responses of select system designs to physical test data. Validation activities such as these lead to improvement of offshore wind modeling tools, which will enable the development of more innovative and cost-effective offshore wind designs. For Phase II of the project, numerical models of the DeepCwind floating semisubmersible wind system weremore » validated using measurement data from a 1/50th-scale validation campaign performed at the Maritime Research Institute Netherlands offshore wave basin. Validation of the models was performed by comparing the calculated ultimate and fatigue loads for eight different wave-only and combined wind/wave test cases against the measured data, after calibration was performed using free-decay, wind-only, and wave-only tests. The results show a decent estimation of both the ultimate and fatigue loads for the simulated results, but with a fairly consistent underestimation in the tower and upwind mooring line loads that can be attributed to an underestimation of wave-excitation forces outside the linear wave-excitation region, and the presence of broadband frequency excitation in the experimental measurements from wind. Participant results showed varied agreement with the experimental measurements based on the modeling approach used. Modeling attributes that enabled better agreement included: the use of a dynamic mooring model; wave stretching, or some other hydrodynamic modeling approach that excites frequencies outside the linear wave region; nonlinear wave kinematics models; and unsteady aerodynamics models. Also, it was observed that a Morison-only hydrodynamic modeling approach could create excessive pitch excitation and resulting tower loads in some frequency bands.« less
Simulation model calibration and validation : phase II : development of implementation handbook and short course.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2006-01-01

A previous study developed a procedure for microscopic simulation model calibration and validation and evaluated the procedure via two relatively simple case studies using three microscopic simulation models. Results showed that default parameters we...
U.S. 75 Dallas, Texas, Model Validation and Calibration Report

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2010-02-01

This report presents the model validation and calibration results of the Integrated Corridor Management (ICM) analysis, modeling, and simulation (AMS) for the U.S. 75 Corridor in Dallas, Texas. The purpose of the project was to estimate the benefits ...
Three phase heat and mass transfer model for unsaturated soil freezing process: Part 2 - model validation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, Yaning; Xu, Fei; Li, Bingxi; Kim, Yong-Song; Zhao, Wenke; Xie, Gongnan; Fu, Zhongbin

2018-04-01

This study aims to validate the three-phase heat and mass transfer model developed in the first part (Three phase heat and mass transfer model for unsaturated soil freezing process: Part 1 - model development). Experimental results from studies and experiments were used for the validation. The results showed that the correlation coefficients for the simulated and experimental water contents at different soil depths were between 0.83 and 0.92. The correlation coefficients for the simulated and experimental liquid water contents at different soil temperatures were between 0.95 and 0.99. With these high accuracies, the developed model can be well used to predict the water contents at different soil depths and temperatures.
Mathematical multi-scale model of the cardiovascular system including mitral valve dynamics. Application to ischemic mitral insufficiency

PubMed Central

2011-01-01

Background Valve dysfunction is a common cardiovascular pathology. Despite significant clinical research, there is little formal study of how valve dysfunction affects overall circulatory dynamics. Validated models would offer the ability to better understand these dynamics and thus optimize diagnosis, as well as surgical and other interventions. Methods A cardiovascular and circulatory system (CVS) model has already been validated in silico, and in several animal model studies. It accounts for valve dynamics using Heaviside functions to simulate a physiologically accurate "open on pressure, close on flow" law. However, it does not consider real-time valve opening dynamics and therefore does not fully capture valve dysfunction, particularly where the dysfunction involves partial closure. This research describes an updated version of this previous closed-loop CVS model that includes the progressive opening of the mitral valve, and is defined over the full cardiac cycle. Results Simulations of the cardiovascular system with healthy mitral valve are performed, and, the global hemodynamic behaviour is studied compared with previously validated results. The error between resulting pressure-volume (PV) loops of already validated CVS model and the new CVS model that includes the progressive opening of the mitral valve is assessed and remains within typical measurement error and variability. Simulations of ischemic mitral insufficiency are also performed. Pressure-Volume loops, transmitral flow evolution and mitral valve aperture area evolution follow reported measurements in shape, amplitude and trends. Conclusions The resulting cardiovascular system model including mitral valve dynamics provides a foundation for clinical validation and the study of valvular dysfunction in vivo. The overall models and results could readily be generalised to other cardiac valves. PMID:21942971
Validation and upgrading of physically based mathematical models

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Duval, Ronald

1992-01-01

The validation of the results of physically-based mathematical models against experimental results was discussed. Systematic techniques are used for: (1) isolating subsets of the simulator mathematical model and comparing the response of each subset to its experimental response for the same input conditions; (2) evaluating the response error to determine whether it is the result of incorrect parameter values, incorrect structure of the model subset, or unmodeled external effects of cross coupling; and (3) modifying and upgrading the model and its parameter values to determine the most physically appropriate combination of changes.
Radiative transfer model validations during the First ISLSCP Field Experiment

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Frouin, Robert; Breon, Francois-Marie; Gautier, Catherine

1990-01-01

Two simple radiative transfer models, the 5S model based on Tanre et al. (1985, 1986) and the wide-band model of Morcrette (1984) are validated by comparing their outputs with results obtained during the First ISLSCP Field Experiment on concomitant radiosonde, aerosol turbidity, and radiation measurements and sky photographs. Results showed that the 5S model overestimates the short-wave irradiance by 13.2 W/sq m, whereas the Morcrette model underestimated the long-wave irradiance by 7.4 W/sq m.
Trends in parameterization, economics and host behaviour in influenza pandemic modelling: a review and reporting protocol

PubMed Central

2013-01-01

Background The volume of influenza pandemic modelling studies has increased dramatically in the last decade. Many models incorporate now sophisticated parameterization and validation techniques, economic analyses and the behaviour of individuals. Methods We reviewed trends in these aspects in models for influenza pandemic preparedness that aimed to generate policy insights for epidemic management and were published from 2000 to September 2011, i.e. before and after the 2009 pandemic. Results We find that many influenza pandemics models rely on parameters from previous modelling studies, models are rarely validated using observed data and are seldom applied to low-income countries. Mechanisms for international data sharing would be necessary to facilitate a wider adoption of model validation. The variety of modelling decisions makes it difficult to compare and evaluate models systematically. Conclusions We propose a model Characteristics, Construction, Parameterization and Validation aspects protocol (CCPV protocol) to contribute to the systematisation of the reporting of models with an emphasis on the incorporation of economic aspects and host behaviour. Model reporting, as already exists in many other fields of modelling, would increase confidence in model results, and transparency in their assessment and comparison. PMID:23651557
Applicability of Monte Carlo cross validation technique for model development and validation using generalised least squares regression

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Haddad, Khaled; Rahman, Ataur; A Zaman, Mohammad; Shrestha, Surendra

2013-03-01

SummaryIn regional hydrologic regression analysis, model selection and validation are regarded as important steps. Here, the model selection is usually based on some measurements of goodness-of-fit between the model prediction and observed data. In Regional Flood Frequency Analysis (RFFA), leave-one-out (LOO) validation or a fixed percentage leave out validation (e.g., 10%) is commonly adopted to assess the predictive ability of regression-based prediction equations. This paper develops a Monte Carlo Cross Validation (MCCV) technique (which has widely been adopted in Chemometrics and Econometrics) in RFFA using Generalised Least Squares Regression (GLSR) and compares it with the most commonly adopted LOO validation approach. The study uses simulated and regional flood data from the state of New South Wales in Australia. It is found that when developing hydrologic regression models, application of the MCCV is likely to result in a more parsimonious model than the LOO. It has also been found that the MCCV can provide a more realistic estimate of a model's predictive ability when compared with the LOO.
Analytical validation of an explicit finite element model of a rolling element bearing with a localised line spall

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Singh, Sarabjeet; Howard, Carl Q.; Hansen, Colin H.; Köpke, Uwe G.

2018-03-01

In this paper, numerically modelled vibration response of a rolling element bearing with a localised outer raceway line spall is presented. The results were obtained from a finite element (FE) model of the defective bearing solved using an explicit dynamics FE software package, LS-DYNA. Time domain vibration signals of the bearing obtained directly from the FE modelling were processed further to estimate time-frequency and frequency domain results, such as spectrogram and power spectrum, using standard signal processing techniques pertinent to the vibration-based monitoring of rolling element bearings. A logical approach to analyses of the numerically modelled results was developed with an aim to presenting the analytical validation of the modelled results. While the time and frequency domain analyses of the results show that the FE model generates accurate bearing kinematics and defect frequencies, the time-frequency analysis highlights the simulation of distinct low- and high-frequency characteristic vibration signals associated with the unloading and reloading of the rolling elements as they move in and out of the defect, respectively. Favourable agreement of the numerical and analytical results demonstrates the validation of the results from the explicit FE modelling of the bearing.
Validation in the Absence of Observed Events.

PubMed

Lathrop, John; Ezell, Barry

2016-04-01

This article addresses the problem of validating models in the absence of observed events, in the area of weapons of mass destruction terrorism risk assessment. We address that problem with a broadened definition of "validation," based on stepping "up" a level to considering the reason why decisionmakers seek validation, and from that basis redefine validation as testing how well the model can advise decisionmakers in terrorism risk management decisions. We develop that into two conditions: validation must be based on cues available in the observable world; and it must focus on what can be done to affect that observable world, i.e., risk management. That leads to two foci: (1) the real-world risk generating process, and (2) best use of available data. Based on our experience with nine WMD terrorism risk assessment models, we then describe three best use of available data pitfalls: SME confidence bias, lack of SME cross-referencing, and problematic initiation rates. Those two foci and three pitfalls provide a basis from which we define validation in this context in terms of four tests--Does the model: … capture initiation? … capture the sequence of events by which attack scenarios unfold? … consider unanticipated scenarios? … consider alternative causal chains? Finally, we corroborate our approach against three validation tests from the DOD literature: Is the model a correct representation of the process to be simulated? To what degree are the model results comparable to the real world? Over what range of inputs are the model results useful? © 2015 Society for Risk Analysis.
Robustness and Uncertainty: Applications for Policy in Climate and Hydrological Modeling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fields, A. L., III

2015-12-01

Policymakers must often decide how to proceed when presented with conflicting simulation data from hydrological, climatological, and geological models. While laboratory sciences often appeal to the reproducibility of results to argue for the validity of their conclusions, simulations cannot use this strategy for a number of pragmatic and methodological reasons. However, robustness of predictions and causal structures can serve the same function for simulations as reproducibility does for laboratory experiments and field observations in either adjudicating between conflicting results or showing that there is insufficient justification to externally validate the results. Additionally, an interpretation of the argument from robustness is presented that involves appealing to the convergence of many well-built and diverse models rather than the more common version which involves appealing to the probability that one of a set of models is likely to be true. This interpretation strengthens the case for taking robustness as an additional requirement for the validation of simulation results and ultimately supports the idea that computer simulations can provide information about the world that is just as trustworthy as data from more traditional laboratory studies and field observations. Understanding the importance of robust results for the validation of simulation data is especially important for policymakers making decisions on the basis of potentially conflicting models. Applications will span climate, hydrological, and hydroclimatological models.
Validity of empirical models of exposure in asphalt paving

PubMed Central

Burstyn, I; Boffetta, P; Burr, G; Cenni, A; Knecht, U; Sciarra, G; Kromhout, H

2002-01-01

Aims: To investigate the validity of empirical models of exposure to bitumen fume and benzo(a)pyrene, developed for a historical cohort study of asphalt paving in Western Europe. Methods: Validity was evaluated using data from the USA, Italy, and Germany not used to develop the original models. Correlation between observed and predicted exposures was examined. Bias and precision were estimated. Results: Models were imprecise. Furthermore, predicted bitumen fume exposures tended to be lower (-70%) than concentrations found during paving in the USA. This apparent bias might be attributed to differences between Western European and USA paving practices. Evaluation of the validity of the benzo(a)pyrene exposure model revealed a similar to expected effect of re-paving and a larger than expected effect of tar use. Overall, benzo(a)pyrene models underestimated exposures by 51%. Conclusions: Possible bias as a result of underestimation of the impact of coal tar on benzo(a)pyrene exposure levels must be explored in sensitivity analysis of the exposure–response relation. Validation of the models, albeit limited, increased our confidence in their applicability to exposure assessment in the historical cohort study of cancer risk among asphalt workers. PMID:12205236
Beware of external validation! - A Comparative Study of Several Validation Techniques used in QSAR Modelling.

PubMed

Majumdar, Subhabrata; Basak, Subhash C

2018-04-26

Proper validation is an important aspect of QSAR modelling. External validation is one of the widely used validation methods in QSAR where the model is built on a subset of the data and validated on the rest of the samples. However, its effectiveness for datasets with a small number of samples but large number of predictors remains suspect. Calculating hundreds or thousands of molecular descriptors using currently available software has become the norm in QSAR research, owing to computational advances in the past few decades. Thus, for n chemical compounds and p descriptors calculated for each molecule, the typical chemometric dataset today has high value of p but small n (i.e. n < p). Motivated by the evidence of inadequacies of external validation in estimating the true predictive capability of a statistical model in recent literature, this paper performs an extensive and comparative study of this method with several other validation techniques. We compared four validation methods: leave-one-out, K-fold, external and multi-split validation, using statistical models built using the LASSO regression, which simultaneously performs variable selection and modelling. We used 300 simulated datasets and one real dataset of 95 congeneric amine mutagens for this evaluation. External validation metrics have high variation among different random splits of the data, hence are not recommended for predictive QSAR models. LOO has the overall best performance among all validation methods applied in our scenario. Results from external validation are too unstable for the datasets we analyzed. Based on our findings, we recommend using the LOO procedure for validating QSAR predictive models built on high-dimensional small-sample data. Copyright© Bentham Science Publishers; For any queries, please email at epub@benthamscience.org.
Three-dimensional computational fluid dynamics modelling and experimental validation of the Jülich Mark-F solid oxide fuel cell stack

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nishida, R. T.; Beale, S. B.; Pharoah, J. G.; de Haart, L. G. J.; Blum, L.

2018-01-01

This work is among the first where the results of an extensive experimental research programme are compared to performance calculations of a comprehensive computational fluid dynamics model for a solid oxide fuel cell stack. The model, which combines electrochemical reactions with momentum, heat, and mass transport, is used to obtain results for an established industrial-scale fuel cell stack design with complex manifolds. To validate the model, comparisons with experimentally gathered voltage and temperature data are made for the Jülich Mark-F, 18-cell stack operating in a test furnace. Good agreement is obtained between the model and experiment results for cell voltages and temperature distributions, confirming the validity of the computational methodology for stack design. The transient effects during ramp up of current in the experiment may explain a lower average voltage than model predictions for the power curve.
A Comprehensive Validation Methodology for Sparse Experimental Data

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Norman, Ryan B.; Blattnig, Steve R.

2010-01-01

A comprehensive program of verification and validation has been undertaken to assess the applicability of models to space radiation shielding applications and to track progress as models are developed over time. The models are placed under configuration control, and automated validation tests are used so that comparisons can readily be made as models are improved. Though direct comparisons between theoretical results and experimental data are desired for validation purposes, such comparisons are not always possible due to lack of data. In this work, two uncertainty metrics are introduced that are suitable for validating theoretical models against sparse experimental databases. The nuclear physics models, NUCFRG2 and QMSFRG, are compared to an experimental database consisting of over 3600 experimental cross sections to demonstrate the applicability of the metrics. A cumulative uncertainty metric is applied to the question of overall model accuracy, while a metric based on the median uncertainty is used to analyze the models from the perspective of model development by analyzing subsets of the model parameter space.

Assessing Discriminative Performance at External Validation of Clinical Prediction Models

PubMed Central

Nieboer, Daan; van der Ploeg, Tjeerd; Steyerberg, Ewout W.

2016-01-01

Introduction External validation studies are essential to study the generalizability of prediction models. Recently a permutation test, focusing on discrimination as quantified by the c-statistic, was proposed to judge whether a prediction model is transportable to a new setting. We aimed to evaluate this test and compare it to previously proposed procedures to judge any changes in c-statistic from development to external validation setting. Methods We compared the use of the permutation test to the use of benchmark values of the c-statistic following from a previously proposed framework to judge transportability of a prediction model. In a simulation study we developed a prediction model with logistic regression on a development set and validated them in the validation set. We concentrated on two scenarios: 1) the case-mix was more heterogeneous and predictor effects were weaker in the validation set compared to the development set, and 2) the case-mix was less heterogeneous in the validation set and predictor effects were identical in the validation and development set. Furthermore we illustrated the methods in a case study using 15 datasets of patients suffering from traumatic brain injury. Results The permutation test indicated that the validation and development set were homogenous in scenario 1 (in almost all simulated samples) and heterogeneous in scenario 2 (in 17%-39% of simulated samples). Previously proposed benchmark values of the c-statistic and the standard deviation of the linear predictors correctly pointed at the more heterogeneous case-mix in scenario 1 and the less heterogeneous case-mix in scenario 2. Conclusion The recently proposed permutation test may provide misleading results when externally validating prediction models in the presence of case-mix differences between the development and validation population. To correctly interpret the c-statistic found at external validation it is crucial to disentangle case-mix differences from incorrect regression coefficients. PMID:26881753
Finite Element Model Development and Validation for Aircraft Fuselage Structures

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Buehrle, Ralph D.; Fleming, Gary A.; Pappa, Richard S.; Grosveld, Ferdinand W.

2000-01-01

The ability to extend the valid frequency range for finite element based structural dynamic predictions using detailed models of the structural components and attachment interfaces is examined for several stiffened aircraft fuselage structures. This extended dynamic prediction capability is needed for the integration of mid-frequency noise control technology. Beam, plate and solid element models of the stiffener components are evaluated. Attachment models between the stiffener and panel skin range from a line along the rivets of the physical structure to a constraint over the entire contact surface. The finite element models are validated using experimental modal analysis results. The increased frequency range results in a corresponding increase in the number of modes, modal density and spatial resolution requirements. In this study, conventional modal tests using accelerometers are complemented with Scanning Laser Doppler Velocimetry and Electro-Optic Holography measurements to further resolve the spatial response characteristics. Whenever possible, component and subassembly modal tests are used to validate the finite element models at lower levels of assembly. Normal mode predictions for different finite element representations of components and assemblies are compared with experimental results to assess the most accurate techniques for modeling aircraft fuselage type structures.
Assessment of MARMOT Grain Growth Model

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Fromm, B.; Zhang, Y.; Schwen, D.

2015-12-01

This report assesses the MARMOT grain growth model by comparing modeling predictions with experimental results from thermal annealing. The purpose here is threefold: (1) to demonstrate the validation approach of using thermal annealing experiments with non-destructive characterization, (2) to test the reconstruction capability and computation efficiency in MOOSE, and (3) to validate the grain growth model and the associated parameters that are implemented in MARMOT for UO 2. To assure a rigorous comparison, the 2D and 3D initial experimental microstructures of UO 2 samples were characterized using non-destructive Synchrotron x-ray. The same samples were then annealed at 2273K for grainmore » growth, and their initial microstructures were used as initial conditions for simulated annealing at the same temperature using MARMOT. After annealing, the final experimental microstructures were characterized again to compare with the results from simulations. So far, comparison between modeling and experiments has been done for 2D microstructures, and 3D comparison is underway. The preliminary results demonstrated the usefulness of the non-destructive characterization method for MARMOT grain growth model validation. A detailed analysis of the 3D microstructures is in progress to fully validate the current model in MARMOT.« less
Validation of a Simulation Model of Intrinsic Lutetium-176 Activity in LSO-Based Preclinical PET Systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

McIntosh, Bryan

The LSO scintillator crystal commonly used in PET scanners contains a low level of intrinsic radioactivity due to a small amount of Lu-176. This is not usually a concern in routine scanning but can become an issue in small animal imaging, especially when imaging low tracer activity levels. Previously there had been no systematic validation of simulations of this activity; this thesis discusses the validation of a GATE model of intrinsic Lu-176 against results from a bench-top pair of detectors and a Siemens Inveon preclinical PET system. The simulation results matched those from the bench-top system very well, but did not agree as well with results from the complete Inveon system due to a drop-off in system sensitivity at low energies that was not modelled. With this validation the model can now be used with confidence to predict the effects of Lu-176 activity in future PET systems.
Testing the validity of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) safety culture model.

PubMed

López de Castro, Borja; Gracia, Francisco J; Peiró, José M; Pietrantoni, Luca; Hernández, Ana

2013-11-01

This paper takes the first steps to empirically validate the widely used model of safety culture of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), composed of five dimensions, further specified by 37 attributes. To do so, three independent and complementary studies are presented. First, 290 students serve to collect evidence about the face validity of the model. Second, 48 experts in organizational behavior judge its content validity. And third, 468 workers in a Spanish nuclear power plant help to reveal how closely the theoretical five-dimensional model can be replicated. Our findings suggest that several attributes of the model may not be related to their corresponding dimensions. According to our results, a one-dimensional structure fits the data better than the five dimensions proposed by the IAEA. Moreover, the IAEA model, as it stands, seems to have rather moderate content validity and low face validity. Practical implications for researchers and practitioners are included. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
Improving the Validity of Activity of Daily Living Dependency Risk Assessment

PubMed Central

Clark, Daniel O.; Stump, Timothy E.; Tu, Wanzhu; Miller, Douglas K.

2015-01-01

Objectives Efforts to prevent activity of daily living (ADL) dependency may be improved through models that assess older adults’ dependency risk. We evaluated whether cognition and gait speed measures improve the predictive validity of interview-based models. Method Participants were 8,095 self-respondents in the 2006 Health and Retirement Survey who were aged 65 years or over and independent in five ADLs. Incident ADL dependency was determined from the 2008 interview. Models were developed using random 2/3rd cohorts and validated in the remaining 1/3rd. Results Compared to a c-statistic of 0.79 in the best interview model, the model including cognitive measures had c-statistics of 0.82 and 0.80 while the best fitting gait speed model had c-statistics of 0.83 and 0.79 in the development and validation cohorts, respectively. Conclusion Two relatively brief models, one that requires an in-person assessment and one that does not, had excellent validity for predicting incident ADL dependency but did not significantly improve the predictive validity of the best fitting interview-based models. PMID:24652867
A calibration hierarchy for risk models was defined: from utopia to empirical data.

PubMed

Van Calster, Ben; Nieboer, Daan; Vergouwe, Yvonne; De Cock, Bavo; Pencina, Michael J; Steyerberg, Ewout W

2016-06-01

Calibrated risk models are vital for valid decision support. We define four levels of calibration and describe implications for model development and external validation of predictions. We present results based on simulated data sets. A common definition of calibration is "having an event rate of R% among patients with a predicted risk of R%," which we refer to as "moderate calibration." Weaker forms of calibration only require the average predicted risk (mean calibration) or the average prediction effects (weak calibration) to be correct. "Strong calibration" requires that the event rate equals the predicted risk for every covariate pattern. This implies that the model is fully correct for the validation setting. We argue that this is unrealistic: the model type may be incorrect, the linear predictor is only asymptotically unbiased, and all nonlinear and interaction effects should be correctly modeled. In addition, we prove that moderate calibration guarantees nonharmful decision making. Finally, results indicate that a flexible assessment of calibration in small validation data sets is problematic. Strong calibration is desirable for individualized decision support but unrealistic and counter productive by stimulating the development of overly complex models. Model development and external validation should focus on moderate calibration. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.
Helicopter simulation validation using flight data

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Key, D. L.; Hansen, R. S.; Cleveland, W. B.; Abbott, W. Y.

1982-01-01

A joint NASA/Army effort to perform a systematic ground-based piloted simulation validation assessment is described. The best available mathematical model for the subject helicopter (UH-60A Black Hawk) was programmed for real-time operation. Flight data were obtained to validate the math model, and to develop models for the pilot control strategy while performing mission-type tasks. The validated math model is to be combined with motion and visual systems to perform ground based simulation. Comparisons of the control strategy obtained in flight with that obtained on the simulator are to be used as the basis for assessing the fidelity of the results obtained in the simulator.
Economic analysis of model validation for a challenge problem

DOE PAGES

Paez, Paul J.; Paez, Thomas L.; Hasselman, Timothy K.

2016-02-19

It is now commonplace for engineers to build mathematical models of the systems they are designing, building, or testing. And, it is nearly universally accepted that phenomenological models of physical systems must be validated prior to use for prediction in consequential scenarios. Yet, there are certain situations in which testing only or no testing and no modeling may be economically viable alternatives to modeling and its associated testing. This paper develops an economic framework within which benefit–cost can be evaluated for modeling and model validation relative to other options. The development is presented in terms of a challenge problem. Asmore » a result, we provide a numerical example that quantifies when modeling, calibration, and validation yield higher benefit–cost than a testing only or no modeling and no testing option.« less
Turbine Engine Mathematical Model Validation

DTIC Science & Technology

1976-12-01

AEDC-TR-76-90 ~Ec i ? Z985 TURBINE ENGINE MATHEMATICAL MODEL VALIDATION ENGINE TEST FACILITY ARNOLD ENGINEERING DEVELOPMENT CENTER AIR FORCE...i f n e c e s e a ~ ~ d i den t i f y by b l ock number) YJI01-GE-100 engine turbine engines mathematical models computations mathematical...report presents and discusses the results of an investigation to develop a rationale and technique for the validation of turbine engine steady-state
Development of Learning Models Based on Problem Solving and Meaningful Learning Standards by Expert Validity for Animal Development Course

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lufri, L.; Fitri, R.; Yogica, R.

2018-04-01

The purpose of this study is to produce a learning model based on problem solving and meaningful learning standards by expert assessment or validation for the course of Animal Development. This research is a development research that produce the product in the form of learning model, which consist of sub product, namely: the syntax of learning model and student worksheets. All of these products are standardized through expert validation. The research data is the level of validity of all sub products obtained using questionnaire, filled by validators from various field of expertise (field of study, learning strategy, Bahasa). Data were analysed using descriptive statistics. The result of the research shows that the problem solving and meaningful learning model has been produced. Sub products declared appropriate by expert include the syntax of learning model and student worksheet.
Quantitative validation of carbon-fiber laminate low velocity impact simulations

DOE PAGES

English, Shawn A.; Briggs, Timothy M.; Nelson, Stacy M.

2015-09-26

Simulations of low velocity impact with a flat cylindrical indenter upon a carbon fiber fabric reinforced polymer laminate are rigorously validated. Comparison of the impact energy absorption between the model and experiment is used as the validation metric. Additionally, non-destructive evaluation, including ultrasonic scans and three-dimensional computed tomography, provide qualitative validation of the models. The simulations include delamination, matrix cracks and fiber breaks. An orthotropic damage and failure constitutive model, capable of predicting progressive damage and failure, is developed in conjunction and described. An ensemble of simulations incorporating model parameter uncertainties is used to predict a response distribution which ismore » then compared to experimental output using appropriate statistical methods. Lastly, the model form errors are exposed and corrected for use in an additional blind validation analysis. The result is a quantifiable confidence in material characterization and model physics when simulating low velocity impact in structures of interest.« less
Inhibitor-based validation of a homology model of the active-site of tripeptidyl peptidase II.

PubMed

De Winter, Hans; Breslin, Henry; Miskowski, Tamara; Kavash, Robert; Somers, Marijke

2005-04-01

A homology model of the active site region of tripeptidyl peptidase II (TPP II) was constructed based on the crystal structures of four subtilisin-like templates. The resulting model was subsequently validated by judging expectations of the model versus observed activities for a broad set of prepared TPP II inhibitors. The structure-activity relationships observed for the prepared TPP II inhibitors correlated nicely with the structural details of the TPP II active site model, supporting the validity of this model and its usefulness for structure-based drug design and pharmacophore searching experiments.
The SCALE Verified, Archived Library of Inputs and Data - VALID

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Marshall, William BJ J; Rearden, Bradley T

The Verified, Archived Library of Inputs and Data (VALID) at ORNL contains high quality, independently reviewed models and results that improve confidence in analysis. VALID is developed and maintained according to a procedure of the SCALE quality assurance (QA) plan. This paper reviews the origins of the procedure and its intended purpose, the philosophy of the procedure, some highlights of its implementation, and the future of the procedure and associated VALID library. The original focus of the procedure was the generation of high-quality models that could be archived at ORNL and applied to many studies. The review process associated withmore » model generation minimized the chances of errors in these archived models. Subsequently, the scope of the library and procedure was expanded to provide high quality, reviewed sensitivity data files for deployment through the International Handbook of Evaluated Criticality Safety Benchmark Experiments (IHECSBE). Sensitivity data files for approximately 400 such models are currently available. The VALID procedure and library continue fulfilling these multiple roles. The VALID procedure is based on the quality assurance principles of ISO 9001 and nuclear safety analysis. Some of these key concepts include: independent generation and review of information, generation and review by qualified individuals, use of appropriate references for design data and documentation, and retrievability of the models, results, and documentation associated with entries in the library. Some highlights of the detailed procedure are discussed to provide background on its implementation and to indicate limitations of data extracted from VALID for use by the broader community. Specifically, external users of data generated within VALID must take responsibility for ensuring that the files are used within the QA framework of their organization and that use is appropriate. The future plans for the VALID library include expansion to include additional experiments from the IHECSBE, to include experiments from areas beyond criticality safety, such as reactor physics and shielding, and to include application models. In the future, external SCALE users may also obtain qualification under the VALID procedure and be involved in expanding the library. The VALID library provides a pathway for the criticality safety community to leverage modeling and analysis expertise at ORNL.« less
Development and validation of a two-dimensional fast-response flood estimation model

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Judi, David R; Mcpherson, Timothy N; Burian, Steven J

2009-01-01

A finite difference formulation of the shallow water equations using an upwind differencing method was developed maintaining computational efficiency and accuracy such that it can be used as a fast-response flood estimation tool. The model was validated using both laboratory controlled experiments and an actual dam breach. Through the laboratory experiments, the model was shown to give good estimations of depth and velocity when compared to the measured data, as well as when compared to a more complex two-dimensional model. Additionally, the model was compared to high water mark data obtained from the failure of the Taum Sauk dam. Themore » simulated inundation extent agreed well with the observed extent, with the most notable differences resulting from the inability to model sediment transport. The results of these validation studies complex two-dimensional model. Additionally, the model was compared to high water mark data obtained from the failure of the Taum Sauk dam. The simulated inundation extent agreed well with the observed extent, with the most notable differences resulting from the inability to model sediment transport. The results of these validation studies show that a relatively numerical scheme used to solve the complete shallow water equations can be used to accurately estimate flood inundation. Future work will focus on further reducing the computation time needed to provide flood inundation estimates for fast-response analyses. This will be accomplished through the efficient use of multi-core, multi-processor computers coupled with an efficient domain-tracking algorithm, as well as an understanding of the impacts of grid resolution on model results.« less
Confirming the Lanchestrian linear-logarithmic model of attrition

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Hartley, D.S. III.

1990-12-01

This paper is the fourth in a series of reports on the breakthrough research in historical validation of attrition in conflict. Significant defense policy decisions, including weapons acquisition and arms reduction, are based in part on models of conflict. Most of these models are driven by their attrition algorithms, usually forms of the Lanchester square and linear laws. None of these algorithms have been validated. The results of this paper confirm the results of earlier papers, using a large database of historical results. The homogeneous linear-logarithmic Lanchestrian attrition model is validated to the extent possible with current initial and finalmore » force size data and is consistent with the Iwo Jima data. A particular differential linear-logarithmic model is described that fits the data very well. A version of Helmbold's victory predicting parameter is also confirmed, with an associated probability function. 37 refs., 73 figs., 68 tabs.« less
Testing Crites' Model of Career Maturity: A Hierarchical Strategy.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Wallbrown, Fred H.; And Others

1986-01-01

Investigated the construct validity of Crites' model of career maturity and the Career Maturity Inventory (CMI). Results from a nationwide sample of adolescents, using hierarchical factor analytic methodology, indicated confirmatory support for the multidimensionality of Crites' model of career maturity, and the construct validity of the CMI as a…
Simulator validation results and proposed reporting format from flight testing a software model of a complex, high-performance airplane.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2008-01-01

Computer simulations are often used in aviation studies. These simulation tools may require complex, high-fidelity aircraft models. Since many of the flight models used are third-party developed products, independent validation is desired prior to im...
Structural exploration for the refinement of anticancer matrix metalloproteinase-2 inhibitor designing approaches through robust validated multi-QSARs

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Adhikari, Nilanjan; Amin, Sk. Abdul; Saha, Achintya; Jha, Tarun

2018-03-01

Matrix metalloproteinase-2 (MMP-2) is a promising pharmacological target for designing potential anticancer drugs. MMP-2 plays critical functions in apoptosis by cleaving the DNA repair enzyme namely poly (ADP-ribose) polymerase (PARP). Moreover, MMP-2 expression triggers the vascular endothelial growth factor (VEGF) having a positive influence on tumor size, invasion, and angiogenesis. Therefore, it is an urgent need to develop potential MMP-2 inhibitors without any toxicity but better pharmacokinetic property. In this article, robust validated multi-quantitative structure-activity relationship (QSAR) modeling approaches were attempted on a dataset of 222 MMP-2 inhibitors to explore the important structural and pharmacophoric requirements for higher MMP-2 inhibition. Different validated regression and classification-based QSARs, pharmacophore mapping and 3D-QSAR techniques were performed. These results were challenged and subjected to further validation to explain 24 in house MMP-2 inhibitors to judge the reliability of these models further. All these models were individually validated internally as well as externally and were supported and validated by each other. These results were further justified by molecular docking analysis. Modeling techniques adopted here not only helps to explore the necessary structural and pharmacophoric requirements but also for the overall validation and refinement techniques for designing potential MMP-2 inhibitors.
Theoretical relationship between vibration transmissibility and driving-point response functions of the human body.

PubMed

Dong, Ren G; Welcome, Daniel E; McDowell, Thomas W; Wu, John Z

2013-11-25

The relationship between the vibration transmissibility and driving-point response functions (DPRFs) of the human body is important for understanding vibration exposures of the system and for developing valid models. This study identified their theoretical relationship and demonstrated that the sum of the DPRFs can be expressed as a linear combination of the transmissibility functions of the individual mass elements distributed throughout the system. The relationship is verified using several human vibration models. This study also clarified the requirements for reliably quantifying transmissibility values used as references for calibrating the system models. As an example application, this study used the developed theory to perform a preliminary analysis of the method for calibrating models using both vibration transmissibility and DPRFs. The results of the analysis show that the combined method can theoretically result in a unique and valid solution of the model parameters, at least for linear systems. However, the validation of the method itself does not guarantee the validation of the calibrated model, because the validation of the calibration also depends on the model structure and the reliability and appropriate representation of the reference functions. The basic theory developed in this study is also applicable to the vibration analyses of other structures.

Calibration and validation of a spar-type floating offshore wind turbine model using the FAST dynamic simulation tool

DOE PAGES

Browning, J. R.; Jonkman, J.; Robertson, A.; ...

2014-12-16

In this study, high-quality computer simulations are required when designing floating wind turbines because of the complex dynamic responses that are inherent with a high number of degrees of freedom and variable metocean conditions. In 2007, the FAST wind turbine simulation tool, developed and maintained by the U.S. Department of Energy's (DOE's) National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), was expanded to include capabilities that are suitable for modeling floating offshore wind turbines. In an effort to validate FAST and other offshore wind energy modeling tools, DOE funded the DeepCwind project that tested three prototype floating wind turbines at 1/50 th scalemore » in a wave basin, including a semisubmersible, a tension-leg platform, and a spar buoy. This paper describes the use of the results of the spar wave basin tests to calibrate and validate the FAST offshore floating simulation tool, and presents some initial results of simulated dynamic responses of the spar to several combinations of wind and sea states. Wave basin tests with the spar attached to a scale model of the NREL 5-megawatt reference wind turbine were performed at the Maritime Research Institute Netherlands under the DeepCwind project. This project included free-decay tests, tests with steady or turbulent wind and still water (both periodic and irregular waves with no wind), and combined wind/wave tests. The resulting data from the 1/50th model was scaled using Froude scaling to full size and used to calibrate and validate a full-size simulated model in FAST. Results of the model calibration and validation include successes, subtleties, and limitations of both wave basin testing and FAST modeling capabilities.« less
Environmental fate model for ultra-low-volume insecticide applications used for adult mosquito management

USGS Publications Warehouse

Schleier, Jerome J.; Peterson, Robert K.D.; Irvine, Kathryn M.; Marshall, Lucy M.; Weaver, David K.; Preftakes, Collin J.

2012-01-01

One of the more effective ways of managing high densities of adult mosquitoes that vector human and animal pathogens is ultra-low-volume (ULV) aerosol applications of insecticides. The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency uses models that are not validated for ULV insecticide applications and exposure assumptions to perform their human and ecological risk assessments. Currently, there is no validated model that can accurately predict deposition of insecticides applied using ULV technology for adult mosquito management. In addition, little is known about the deposition and drift of small droplets like those used under conditions encountered during ULV applications. The objective of this study was to perform field studies to measure environmental concentrations of insecticides and to develop a validated model to predict the deposition of ULV insecticides. The final regression model was selected by minimizing the Bayesian Information Criterion and its prediction performance was evaluated using k-fold cross validation. Density of the formulation and the density and CMD interaction coefficients were the largest in the model. The results showed that as density of the formulation decreases, deposition increases. The interaction of density and CMD showed that higher density formulations and larger droplets resulted in greater deposition. These results are supported by the aerosol physics literature. A k-fold cross validation demonstrated that the mean square error of the selected regression model is not biased, and the mean square error and mean square prediction error indicated good predictive ability.
Highlights of Transient Plume Impingement Model Validation and Applications

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Woronowicz, Michael

2011-01-01

This paper describes highlights of an ongoing validation effort conducted to assess the viability of applying a set of analytic point source transient free molecule equations to model behavior ranging from molecular effusion to rocket plumes. The validation effort includes encouraging comparisons to both steady and transient studies involving experimental data and direct simulation Monte Carlo results. Finally, this model is applied to describe features of two exotic transient scenarios involving NASA Goddard Space Flight Center satellite programs.
Item Development and Validity Testing for a Self- and Proxy Report: The Safe Driving Behavior Measure

PubMed Central

Classen, Sherrilene; Winter, Sandra M.; Velozo, Craig A.; Bédard, Michel; Lanford, Desiree N.; Brumback, Babette; Lutz, Barbara J.

2010-01-01

OBJECTIVE We report on item development and validity testing of a self-report older adult safe driving behaviors measure (SDBM). METHOD On the basis of theoretical frameworks (Precede–Proceed Model of Health Promotion, Haddon’s matrix, and Michon’s model), existing driving measures, and previous research and guided by measurement theory, we developed items capturing safe driving behavior. Item development was further informed by focus groups. We established face validity using peer reviewers and content validity using expert raters. RESULTS Peer review indicated acceptable face validity. Initial expert rater review yielded a scale content validity index (CVI) rating of 0.78, with 44 of 60 items rated ≥0.75. Sixteen unacceptable items (≤0.5) required major revision or deletion. The next CVI scale average was 0.84, indicating acceptable content validity. CONCLUSION The SDBM has relevance as a self-report to rate older drivers. Future pilot testing of the SDBM comparing results with on-road testing will define criterion validity. PMID:20437917
Concurrent and convergent validity of the mobility- and multidimensional-hierarchical disability categorization models with physical performance in community older adults.

PubMed

Hu, Ming-Hsia; Yeh, Chih-Jun; Chen, Tou-Rong; Wang, Ching-Yi

2014-01-01

A valid, time-efficient and easy-to-use instrument is important for busy clinical settings, large scale surveys, or community screening use. The purpose of this study was to validate the mobility hierarchical disability categorization model (an abbreviated model) by investigating its concurrent validity with the multidimensional hierarchical disability categorization model (a comprehensive model) and triangulating both models with physical performance measures in older adults. 604 community-dwelling older adults of at least 60 years in age volunteered to participate. Self-reported function on mobility, instrumental activities of daily living (IADL) and activities of daily living (ADL) domains were recorded and then the disability status determined based on both the multidimensional hierarchical categorization model and the mobility hierarchical categorization model. The physical performance measures, consisting of grip strength and usual and fastest gait speeds (UGS, FGS), were collected on the same day. Both categorization models showed high correlation (γs = 0.92, p < 0.001) and agreement (kappa = 0.61, p < 0.0001). Physical performance measures demonstrated significant different group means among the disability subgroups based on both categorization models. The results of multiple regression analysis indicated that both models individually explain similar amount of variance on all physical performances, with adjustments for age, sex, and number of comorbidities. Our results found that the mobility hierarchical disability categorization model is a valid and time efficient tool for large survey or screening use.
Development and validation of P-MODTRAN7 and P-MCScene, 1D and 3D polarimetric radiative transfer models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hawes, Frederick T.; Berk, Alexander; Richtsmeier, Steven C.

2016-05-01

A validated, polarimetric 3-dimensional simulation capability, P-MCScene, is being developed by generalizing Spectral Sciences' Monte Carlo-based synthetic scene simulation model, MCScene, to include calculation of all 4 Stokes components. P-MCScene polarimetric optical databases will be generated by a new version (MODTRAN7) of the government-standard MODTRAN radiative transfer algorithm. The conversion of MODTRAN6 to a polarimetric model is being accomplished by (1) introducing polarimetric data, by (2) vectorizing the MODTRAN radiation calculations and by (3) integrating the newly revised and validated vector discrete ordinate model VDISORT3. Early results, presented here, demonstrate a clear pathway to the long-term goal of fully validated polarimetric models.
The CMEMS-Med-MFC-Biogeochemistry operational system: implementation of NRT and Multi-Year validation tools

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Salon, Stefano; Cossarini, Gianpiero; Bolzon, Giorgio; Teruzzi, Anna

2017-04-01

The Mediterranean Monitoring and Forecasting Centre (Med-MFC) is one of the regional production centres of the EU Copernicus Marine Environment Monitoring Service (CMEMS). Med-MFC manages a suite of numerical model systems for the operational delivery of the CMEMS products, providing continuous monitoring and forecasting of the Mediterranean marine environment. The CMEMS products of fundamental biogeochemical variables (chlorophyll, nitrate, phosphate, oxygen, phytoplankton biomass, primary productivity, pH, pCO2) are organised as gridded datasets and are available at the marine.copernicus.eu web portal. Quantitative estimates of CMEMS products accuracy are prerequisites to release reliable information to intermediate users, end users and to other downstream services. In particular, validation activities aim to deliver accuracy information of the model products and to serve as a long term monitoring of the performance of the modelling systems. The quality assessment of model output is implemented using a multiple-stages approach, basically inspired to the classic "GODAE 4 Classes" metrics and criteria (consistency, quality, performance and benefit). Firstly, pre-operational runs qualify the operational model system against historical data, also providing a verification of the improvements of the new model system release with respect to the previous version. Then, the near real time (NRT) validation aims at delivering a sustained on-line skill assessment of the model analysis and forecast, relying on the NRT available relevant observations (e.g. in situ, Bio Argo and satellite observations). NRT validation results are operated on weekly basis and published on the MEDEAF web portal (www.medeaf.inogs.it). On a quarterly basis, the integration of the NRT validation activities delivers a comprehensive view of the accuracy of model forecast through the official CMEMS validation webpage. Multi-Year production (e.g. reanalysis runs) follows a similar procedure, and the validation is achieved using the same metrics on available historical observations (e.g. the World Ocean Atlas 2013 dataset). Results of the validation activities show that the comparison of the different variables of the CMEMS products with experimental data is feasible at different levels (i.e. either as skill assessment of the short-term forecast and as model consistency through different system versions) and at different spatial and temporal scales. In particular, the accuracy of some variables (chlorophyll, nitrate, oxygen) can be provided at weekly scale and sub-mesoscale, others (carbonate system, phosphate) at quarterly/annual and sub-basin scale, and others (phytoplankton biomass, primary production) only at the level of consistency of model functioning (e.g. literature- or climatology-based). In spite of a wide literature on model validation has been produced so far, maintaining a validation framework in the biogeochemical operational contest that fulfils GODAE criteria is still a challenge. Recent results of the validation activities and new potential validation framework at the Med-MFC will be presented in our contribution.
Cross-Validation of Survival Bump Hunting by Recursive Peeling Methods.

PubMed

Dazard, Jean-Eudes; Choe, Michael; LeBlanc, Michael; Rao, J Sunil

2014-08-01

We introduce a survival/risk bump hunting framework to build a bump hunting model with a possibly censored time-to-event type of response and to validate model estimates. First, we describe the use of adequate survival peeling criteria to build a survival/risk bump hunting model based on recursive peeling methods. Our method called "Patient Recursive Survival Peeling" is a rule-induction method that makes use of specific peeling criteria such as hazard ratio or log-rank statistics. Second, to validate our model estimates and improve survival prediction accuracy, we describe a resampling-based validation technique specifically designed for the joint task of decision rule making by recursive peeling (i.e. decision-box) and survival estimation. This alternative technique, called "combined" cross-validation is done by combining test samples over the cross-validation loops, a design allowing for bump hunting by recursive peeling in a survival setting. We provide empirical results showing the importance of cross-validation and replication.
Cross-Validation of Survival Bump Hunting by Recursive Peeling Methods

PubMed Central

Dazard, Jean-Eudes; Choe, Michael; LeBlanc, Michael; Rao, J. Sunil

2015-01-01

We introduce a survival/risk bump hunting framework to build a bump hunting model with a possibly censored time-to-event type of response and to validate model estimates. First, we describe the use of adequate survival peeling criteria to build a survival/risk bump hunting model based on recursive peeling methods. Our method called “Patient Recursive Survival Peeling” is a rule-induction method that makes use of specific peeling criteria such as hazard ratio or log-rank statistics. Second, to validate our model estimates and improve survival prediction accuracy, we describe a resampling-based validation technique specifically designed for the joint task of decision rule making by recursive peeling (i.e. decision-box) and survival estimation. This alternative technique, called “combined” cross-validation is done by combining test samples over the cross-validation loops, a design allowing for bump hunting by recursive peeling in a survival setting. We provide empirical results showing the importance of cross-validation and replication. PMID:26997922
Cross-validation to select Bayesian hierarchical models in phylogenetics.

PubMed

Duchêne, Sebastián; Duchêne, David A; Di Giallonardo, Francesca; Eden, John-Sebastian; Geoghegan, Jemma L; Holt, Kathryn E; Ho, Simon Y W; Holmes, Edward C

2016-05-26

Recent developments in Bayesian phylogenetic models have increased the range of inferences that can be drawn from molecular sequence data. Accordingly, model selection has become an important component of phylogenetic analysis. Methods of model selection generally consider the likelihood of the data under the model in question. In the context of Bayesian phylogenetics, the most common approach involves estimating the marginal likelihood, which is typically done by integrating the likelihood across model parameters, weighted by the prior. Although this method is accurate, it is sensitive to the presence of improper priors. We explored an alternative approach based on cross-validation that is widely used in evolutionary analysis. This involves comparing models according to their predictive performance. We analysed simulated data and a range of viral and bacterial data sets using a cross-validation approach to compare a variety of molecular clock and demographic models. Our results show that cross-validation can be effective in distinguishing between strict- and relaxed-clock models and in identifying demographic models that allow growth in population size over time. In most of our empirical data analyses, the model selected using cross-validation was able to match that selected using marginal-likelihood estimation. The accuracy of cross-validation appears to improve with longer sequence data, particularly when distinguishing between relaxed-clock models. Cross-validation is a useful method for Bayesian phylogenetic model selection. This method can be readily implemented even when considering complex models where selecting an appropriate prior for all parameters may be difficult.
Global precipitation measurements for validating climate models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tapiador, F. J.; Navarro, A.; Levizzani, V.; García-Ortega, E.; Huffman, G. J.; Kidd, C.; Kucera, P. A.; Kummerow, C. D.; Masunaga, H.; Petersen, W. A.; Roca, R.; Sánchez, J.-L.; Tao, W.-K.; Turk, F. J.

2017-11-01

The advent of global precipitation data sets with increasing temporal span has made it possible to use them for validating climate models. In order to fulfill the requirement of global coverage, existing products integrate satellite-derived retrievals from many sensors with direct ground observations (gauges, disdrometers, radars), which are used as reference for the satellites. While the resulting product can be deemed as the best-available source of quality validation data, awareness of the limitations of such data sets is important to avoid extracting wrong or unsubstantiated conclusions when assessing climate model abilities. This paper provides guidance on the use of precipitation data sets for climate research, including model validation and verification for improving physical parameterizations. The strengths and limitations of the data sets for climate modeling applications are presented, and a protocol for quality assurance of both observational databases and models is discussed. The paper helps elaborating the recent IPCC AR5 acknowledgment of large observational uncertainties in precipitation observations for climate model validation.
Geographic and temporal validity of prediction models: Different approaches were useful to examine model performance

PubMed Central

Austin, Peter C.; van Klaveren, David; Vergouwe, Yvonne; Nieboer, Daan; Lee, Douglas S.; Steyerberg, Ewout W.

2017-01-01

Objective Validation of clinical prediction models traditionally refers to the assessment of model performance in new patients. We studied different approaches to geographic and temporal validation in the setting of multicenter data from two time periods. Study Design and Setting We illustrated different analytic methods for validation using a sample of 14,857 patients hospitalized with heart failure at 90 hospitals in two distinct time periods. Bootstrap resampling was used to assess internal validity. Meta-analytic methods were used to assess geographic transportability. Each hospital was used once as a validation sample, with the remaining hospitals used for model derivation. Hospital-specific estimates of discrimination (c-statistic) and calibration (calibration intercepts and slopes) were pooled using random effects meta-analysis methods. I2 statistics and prediction interval width quantified geographic transportability. Temporal transportability was assessed using patients from the earlier period for model derivation and patients from the later period for model validation. Results Estimates of reproducibility, pooled hospital-specific performance, and temporal transportability were on average very similar, with c-statistics of 0.75. Between-hospital variation was moderate according to I2 statistics and prediction intervals for c-statistics. Conclusion This study illustrates how performance of prediction models can be assessed in settings with multicenter data at different time periods. PMID:27262237
Recovery Act. Development and Validation of an Advanced Stimulation Prediction Model for Enhanced Geothermal Systems

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Gutierrez, Marte

2013-12-31

This research project aims to develop and validate an advanced computer model that can be used in the planning and design of stimulation techniques to create engineered reservoirs for Enhanced Geothermal Systems. The specific objectives of the proposal are to; Develop a true three-dimensional hydro-thermal fracturing simulator that is particularly suited for EGS reservoir creation; Perform laboratory scale model tests of hydraulic fracturing and proppant flow/transport using a polyaxial loading device, and use the laboratory results to test and validate the 3D simulator; Perform discrete element/particulate modeling of proppant transport in hydraulic fractures, and use the results to improve understandmore » of proppant flow and transport; Test and validate the 3D hydro-thermal fracturing simulator against case histories of EGS energy production; and Develop a plan to commercialize the 3D fracturing and proppant flow/transport simulator. The project is expected to yield several specific results and benefits. Major technical products from the proposal include; A true-3D hydro-thermal fracturing computer code that is particularly suited to EGS; Documented results of scale model tests on hydro-thermal fracturing and fracture propping in an analogue crystalline rock; Documented procedures and results of discrete element/particulate modeling of flow and transport of proppants for EGS applications; and Database of monitoring data, with focus of Acoustic Emissions (AE) from lab scale modeling and field case histories of EGS reservoir creation.« less
Validation and calibration of structural models that combine information from multiple sources.

PubMed

Dahabreh, Issa J; Wong, John B; Trikalinos, Thomas A

2017-02-01

Mathematical models that attempt to capture structural relationships between their components and combine information from multiple sources are increasingly used in medicine. Areas covered: We provide an overview of methods for model validation and calibration and survey studies comparing alternative approaches. Expert commentary: Model validation entails a confrontation of models with data, background knowledge, and other models, and can inform judgments about model credibility. Calibration involves selecting parameter values to improve the agreement of model outputs with data. When the goal of modeling is quantitative inference on the effects of interventions or forecasting, calibration can be viewed as estimation. This view clarifies issues related to parameter identifiability and facilitates formal model validation and the examination of consistency among different sources of information. In contrast, when the goal of modeling is the generation of qualitative insights about the modeled phenomenon, calibration is a rather informal process for selecting inputs that result in model behavior that roughly reproduces select aspects of the modeled phenomenon and cannot be equated to an estimation procedure. Current empirical research on validation and calibration methods consists primarily of methodological appraisals or case-studies of alternative techniques and cannot address the numerous complex and multifaceted methodological decisions that modelers must make. Further research is needed on different approaches for developing and validating complex models that combine evidence from multiple sources.
Quasiglobal reaction model for ethylene combustion

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Singh, D. J.; Jachimowski, Casimir J.

1994-01-01

The objective of this study is to develop a reduced mechanism for ethylene oxidation. The authors are interested in a model with a minimum number of species and reactions that still models the chemistry with reasonable accuracy for the expected combustor conditions. The model will be validated by comparing the results to those calculated with a detailed kinetic model that has been validated against the experimental data.
External validation of the diffuse intrinsic pontine glioma survival prediction model: a collaborative report from the International DIPG Registry and the SIOPE DIPG Registry.

PubMed

Veldhuijzen van Zanten, Sophie E M; Lane, Adam; Heymans, Martijn W; Baugh, Joshua; Chaney, Brooklyn; Hoffman, Lindsey M; Doughman, Renee; Jansen, Marc H A; Sanchez, Esther; Vandertop, William P; Kaspers, Gertjan J L; van Vuurden, Dannis G; Fouladi, Maryam; Jones, Blaise V; Leach, James

2017-08-01

We aimed to perform external validation of the recently developed survival prediction model for diffuse intrinsic pontine glioma (DIPG), and discuss its utility. The DIPG survival prediction model was developed in a cohort of patients from the Netherlands, United Kingdom and Germany, registered in the SIOPE DIPG Registry, and includes age <3 years, longer symptom duration and receipt of chemotherapy as favorable predictors, and presence of ring-enhancement on MRI as unfavorable predictor. Model performance was evaluated by analyzing the discrimination and calibration abilities. External validation was performed using an unselected cohort from the International DIPG Registry, including patients from United States, Canada, Australia and New Zealand. Basic comparison with the results of the original study was performed using descriptive statistics, and univariate- and multivariable regression analyses in the validation cohort. External validation was assessed following a variety of analyses described previously. Baseline patient characteristics and results from the regression analyses were largely comparable. Kaplan-Meier curves of the validation cohort reproduced separated groups of standard (n = 39), intermediate (n = 125), and high-risk (n = 78) patients. This discriminative ability was confirmed by similar values for the hazard ratios across these risk groups. The calibration curve in the validation cohort showed a symmetric underestimation of the predicted survival probabilities. In this external validation study, we demonstrate that the DIPG survival prediction model has acceptable cross-cohort calibration and is able to discriminate patients with short, average, and increased survival. We discuss how this clinico-radiological model may serve a useful role in current clinical practice.
Validation of the Transient Structural Response of a Threaded Assembly: Phase I

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Doebling, Scott W.; Hemez, Francois M.; Robertson, Amy N.

2004-04-01

This report explores the application of model validation techniques in structural dynamics. The problem of interest is the propagation of an explosive-driven mechanical shock through a complex threaded joint. The study serves the purpose of assessing whether validating a large-size computational model is feasible, which unit experiments are required, and where the main sources of uncertainty reside. The results documented here are preliminary, and the analyses are exploratory in nature. The results obtained to date reveal several deficiencies of the analysis, to be rectified in future work.
Impact of length of calibration period on the apex model output simulation performance

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Datasets from long-term monitoring sites that can be used for calibration and validation of hydrologic and water quality models are rare due to resource constraints. As a result, hydrologic and water quality models are calibrated and, when possible, validated using short-term measured data. A previo...
Evaluation of impact of length of calibration time period on the APEX model streamflow simulation

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Due to resource constraints, continuous long-term measured data for model calibration and validation (C/V) are rare. As a result, most hydrologic and water quality models are calibrated and, if possible, validated using limited available measured data. However, little research has been carried out t...
Impact of length of dataset on streamflow calibration parameters and performance of APEX model

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Due to resource constraints, long-term monitoring data for calibration and validation of hydrologic and water quality models are rare. As a result, most models are calibrated and, if possible, validated using limited measured data. However, little research has been done to determine the impact of le...

Impact of length of calibration period on the APEX model water quantity and quality simulation performance

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Availability of continuous long-term measured data for model calibration and validation is limited due to time and resources constraints. As a result, hydrologic and water quality models are calibrated and, if possible, validated when measured data is available. Past work reported on the impact of t...
Validation of Modelled Ice Dynamics of the Greenland Ice Sheet using Historical Forcing

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hoffman, M. J.; Price, S. F.; Howat, I. M.; Bonin, J. A.; Chambers, D. P.; Tezaur, I.; Kennedy, J. H.; Lenaerts, J.; Lipscomb, W. H.; Neumann, T.; Nowicki, S.; Perego, M.; Saba, J. L.; Salinger, A.; Guerber, J. R.

2015-12-01

Although ice sheet models are used for sea level rise projections, the degree to which these models have been validated by observations is fairly limited, due in part to the limited duration of the satellite observation era and the long adjustment time scales of ice sheets. Here we describe a validation framework for the Greenland Ice Sheet applied to the Community Ice Sheet Model by forcing the model annually with flux anomalies at the major outlet glaciers (Enderlin et al., 2014, observed from Landsat/ASTER/Operation IceBridge) and surface mass balance (van Angelen et al., 2013, calculated from RACMO2) for the period 1991-2012. The ice sheet model output is compared to ice surface elevation observations from ICESat and ice sheet mass change observations from GRACE. Early results show promise for assessing the performance of different model configurations. Additionally, we explore the effect of ice sheet model resolution on validation skill.
Community-Based Participatory Research Conceptual Model: Community Partner Consultation and Face Validity.

PubMed

Belone, Lorenda; Lucero, Julie E; Duran, Bonnie; Tafoya, Greg; Baker, Elizabeth A; Chan, Domin; Chang, Charlotte; Greene-Moton, Ella; Kelley, Michele A; Wallerstein, Nina

2016-01-01

A national community-based participatory research (CBPR) team developed a conceptual model of CBPR partnerships to understand the contribution of partnership processes to improved community capacity and health outcomes. With the model primarily developed through academic literature and expert consensus building, we sought community input to assess face validity and acceptability. Our research team conducted semi-structured focus groups with six partnerships nationwide. Participants validated and expanded on existing model constructs and identified new constructs based on "real-world" praxis, resulting in a revised model. Four cross-cutting constructs were identified: trust development, capacity, mutual learning, and power dynamics. By empirically testing the model, we found community face validity and capacity to adapt the model to diverse contexts. We recommend partnerships use and adapt the CBPR model and its constructs, for collective reflection and evaluation, to enhance their partnering practices and achieve their health and research goals. © The Author(s) 2014.
A New Symptom Model for Autism Cross-Validated in an Independent Sample

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Boomsma, A.; Van Lang, N. D. J.; De Jonge, M. V.; De Bildt, A. A.; Van Engeland, H.; Minderaa, R. B.

2008-01-01

Background: Results from several studies indicated that a symptom model other than the DSM triad might better describe symptom domains of autism. The present study focused on a) investigating the stability of a new symptom model for autism by cross-validating it in an independent sample and b) examining the invariance of the model regarding three…
Methodologies for validating ray-based forward model using finite element method in ultrasonic array data simulation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, Jie; Nixon, Andrew; Barber, Tom; Budyn, Nicolas; Bevan, Rhodri; Croxford, Anthony; Wilcox, Paul

2018-04-01

In this paper, a methodology of using finite element (FE) model to validate a ray-based model in the simulation of full matrix capture (FMC) ultrasonic array data set is proposed. The overall aim is to separate signal contributions from different interactions in FE results for easier comparing each individual component in the ray-based model results. This is achieved by combining the results from multiple FE models of the system of interest that include progressively more geometrical features while preserving the same mesh structure. It is shown that the proposed techniques allow the interactions from a large number of different ray-paths to be isolated in FE results and compared directly to the results from a ray-based forward model.
Validation of finite element model of transcranial electrical stimulation using scalp potentials: implications for clinical dose

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Datta, Abhishek; Zhou, Xiang; Su, Yuzhou; Parra, Lucas C.; Bikson, Marom

2013-06-01

Objective. During transcranial electrical stimulation, current passage across the scalp generates voltage across the scalp surface. The goal was to characterize these scalp voltages for the purpose of validating subject-specific finite element method (FEM) models of current flow. Approach. Using a recording electrode array, we mapped skin voltages resulting from low-intensity transcranial electrical stimulation. These voltage recordings were used to compare the predictions obtained from the high-resolution model based on the subject undergoing transcranial stimulation. Main results. Each of the four stimulation electrode configurations tested resulted in a distinct distribution of scalp voltages; these spatial maps were linear with applied current amplitude (0.1 to 1 mA) over low frequencies (1 to 10 Hz). The FEM model accurately predicted the distinct voltage distributions and correlated the induced scalp voltages with current flow through cortex. Significance. Our results provide the first direct model validation for these subject-specific modeling approaches. In addition, the monitoring of scalp voltages may be used to verify electrode placement to increase transcranial electrical stimulation safety and reproducibility.
Biomagnetic monitoring as a validation tool for local air quality models: a case study for an urban street canyon.

PubMed

Hofman, Jelle; Samson, Roeland

2014-09-01

Biomagnetic monitoring of tree leaf deposited particles has proven to be a good indicator of the ambient particulate concentration. The objective of this study is to apply this method to validate a local-scale air quality model (ENVI-met), using 96 tree crown sampling locations in a typical urban street canyon. To the best of our knowledge, the application of biomagnetic monitoring for the validation of pollutant dispersion modeling is hereby presented for the first time. Quantitative ENVI-met validation showed significant correlations between modeled and measured results throughout the entire in-leaf period. ENVI-met performed much better at the first half of the street canyon close to the ring road (r=0.58-0.79, RMSE=44-49%), compared to second part (r=0.58-0.64, RMSE=74-102%). The spatial model behavior was evaluated by testing effects of height, azimuthal position, tree position and distance from the main pollution source on the obtained model results and magnetic measurements. Our results demonstrate that biomagnetic monitoring seems to be a valuable method to evaluate the performance of air quality models. Due to the high spatial and temporal resolution of this technique, biomagnetic monitoring can be applied anywhere in the city (where urban green is present) to evaluate model performance at different spatial scales. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
Mathematical modeling in realistic mathematics education

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Riyanto, B.; Zulkardi; Putri, R. I. I.; Darmawijoyo

2017-12-01

The purpose of this paper is to produce Mathematical modelling in Realistics Mathematics Education of Junior High School. This study used development research consisting of 3 stages, namely analysis, design and evaluation. The success criteria of this study were obtained in the form of local instruction theory for school mathematical modelling learning which was valid and practical for students. The data were analyzed using descriptive analysis method as follows: (1) walk through, analysis based on the expert comments in the expert review to get Hypothetical Learning Trajectory for valid mathematical modelling learning; (2) analyzing the results of the review in one to one and small group to gain practicality. Based on the expert validation and students’ opinion and answers, the obtained mathematical modeling problem in Realistics Mathematics Education was valid and practical.
Validation of a mixture-averaged thermal diffusion model for premixed lean hydrogen flames

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schlup, Jason; Blanquart, Guillaume

2018-03-01

The mixture-averaged thermal diffusion model originally proposed by Chapman and Cowling is validated using multiple flame configurations. Simulations using detailed hydrogen chemistry are done on one-, two-, and three-dimensional flames. The analysis spans flat and stretched, steady and unsteady, and laminar and turbulent flames. Quantitative and qualitative results using the thermal diffusion model compare very well with the more complex multicomponent diffusion model. Comparisons are made using flame speeds, surface areas, species profiles, and chemical source terms. Once validated, this model is applied to three-dimensional laminar and turbulent flames. For these cases, thermal diffusion causes an increase in the propagation speed of the flames as well as increased product chemical source terms in regions of high positive curvature. The results illustrate the necessity for including thermal diffusion, and the accuracy and computational efficiency of the mixture-averaged thermal diffusion model.
Validation and influence of anthropometric and kinematic models of obese teenagers in vertical jump performance and mechanical internal energy expenditure.

PubMed

Achard de Leluardière, F; Hajri, L N; Lacouture, P; Duboy, J; Frelut, M L; Peres, G

2006-02-01

There may be concerns about the validity of kinetic models when studying locomotion in obese subjects (OS). The aim of the present study was to improve and validate a relevant representation of obese subject from four kinetic models. Fourteen teenagers with severe primary obesity (BMI = 40 +/- 5.2 kg/m(2)), were studied during jumping. The jumps were filmed by six cameras (synchronized, 50 Hz), associated with a force-plate (1,000 Hz). All the tested models were valid; the linear mechanical analysis of the jumps gave similar results (p > 0.05); but there were significantly different segment inertias when considering the subjects' abdomen (p < 0.01), which was associated with a significantly higher mechanical internal energy expenditure (p < 0.01) than that estimated from Dempster's and Hanavan's model, by about 40 and 30%. The validation of a modelling specifically for obese subjects will enable a better understanding of their locomotion.
Validation of PV-RPM Code in the System Advisor Model.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Klise, Geoffrey Taylor; Lavrova, Olga; Freeman, Janine

2017-04-01

This paper describes efforts made by Sandia National Laboratories (SNL) and the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) to validate the SNL developed PV Reliability Performance Model (PV - RPM) algorithm as implemented in the NREL System Advisor Model (SAM). The PV - RPM model is a library of functions that estimates component failure and repair in a photovoltaic system over a desired simulation period. The failure and repair distributions in this paper are probabilistic representations of component failure and repair based on data collected by SNL for a PV power plant operating in Arizona. The validation effort focuses on whethermore » the failure and repair dist ributions used in the SAM implementation result in estimated failures that match the expected failures developed in the proof - of - concept implementation. Results indicate that the SAM implementation of PV - RPM provides the same results as the proof - of - concep t implementation, indicating the algorithms were reproduced successfully.« less
Comparison of the Incremental Validity of the Old and New MCAT.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Wolf, Fredric M.; And Others

The predictive and incremental validity of both the Old and New Medical College Admission Test (MCAT) was examined and compared with a sample of over 300 medical students. Results of zero order and incremental validity coefficients, as well as prediction models resulting from all possible subsets regression analyses using Mallow's Cp criterion,…
Further Development of the PCRTM Model and RT Model Inter Comparison

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Yang, Qiguang; Liu, Xu; Wu, Wan; Kizer, Susan

2015-01-01

New results for the development of the PCRTM model will be presented. The new results were used for IASI retrieval validation inter comparison and better results were obtained compare to other fast radiative transfer models.
The propagation of inventory-based positional errors into statistical landslide susceptibility models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Steger, Stefan; Brenning, Alexander; Bell, Rainer; Glade, Thomas

2016-12-01

There is unanimous agreement that a precise spatial representation of past landslide occurrences is a prerequisite to produce high quality statistical landslide susceptibility models. Even though perfectly accurate landslide inventories rarely exist, investigations of how landslide inventory-based errors propagate into subsequent statistical landslide susceptibility models are scarce. The main objective of this research was to systematically examine whether and how inventory-based positional inaccuracies of different magnitudes influence modelled relationships, validation results, variable importance and the visual appearance of landslide susceptibility maps. The study was conducted for a landslide-prone site located in the districts of Amstetten and Waidhofen an der Ybbs, eastern Austria, where an earth-slide point inventory was available. The methodological approach comprised an artificial introduction of inventory-based positional errors into the present landslide data set and an in-depth evaluation of subsequent modelling results. Positional errors were introduced by artificially changing the original landslide position by a mean distance of 5, 10, 20, 50 and 120 m. The resulting differently precise response variables were separately used to train logistic regression models. Odds ratios of predictor variables provided insights into modelled relationships. Cross-validation and spatial cross-validation enabled an assessment of predictive performances and permutation-based variable importance. All analyses were additionally carried out with synthetically generated data sets to further verify the findings under rather controlled conditions. The results revealed that an increasing positional inventory-based error was generally related to increasing distortions of modelling and validation results. However, the findings also highlighted that interdependencies between inventory-based spatial inaccuracies and statistical landslide susceptibility models are complex. The systematic comparisons of 12 models provided valuable evidence that the respective error-propagation was not only determined by the degree of positional inaccuracy inherent in the landslide data, but also by the spatial representation of landslides and the environment, landslide magnitude, the characteristics of the study area, the selected classification method and an interplay of predictors within multiple variable models. Based on the results, we deduced that a direct propagation of minor to moderate inventory-based positional errors into modelling results can be partly counteracted by adapting the modelling design (e.g. generalization of input data, opting for strongly generalizing classifiers). Since positional errors within landslide inventories are common and subsequent modelling and validation results are likely to be distorted, the potential existence of inventory-based positional inaccuracies should always be considered when assessing landslide susceptibility by means of empirical models.
Hurricane Sandy Economic Impacts Assessment: A Computable General Equilibrium Approach and Validation

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Boero, Riccardo; Edwards, Brian Keith

Economists use computable general equilibrium (CGE) models to assess how economies react and self-organize after changes in policies, technology, and other exogenous shocks. CGE models are equation-based, empirically calibrated, and inspired by Neoclassical economic theory. The focus of this work was to validate the National Infrastructure Simulation and Analysis Center (NISAC) CGE model and apply it to the problem of assessing the economic impacts of severe events. We used the 2012 Hurricane Sandy event as our validation case. In particular, this work first introduces the model and then describes the validation approach and the empirical data available for studying themore » event of focus. Shocks to the model are then formalized and applied. Finally, model results and limitations are presented and discussed, pointing out both the model degree of accuracy and the assessed total damage caused by Hurricane Sandy.« less
Impact of Learning Model Based on Cognitive Conflict toward Student’s Conceptual Understanding

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mufit, F.; Festiyed, F.; Fauzan, A.; Lufri, L.

2018-04-01

The problems that often occur in the learning of physics is a matter of misconception and low understanding of the concept. Misconceptions do not only happen to students, but also happen to college students and teachers. The existing learning model has not had much impact on improving conceptual understanding and remedial efforts of student misconception. This study aims to see the impact of cognitive-based learning model in improving conceptual understanding and remediating student misconceptions. The research method used is Design / Develop Research. The product developed is a cognitive conflict-based learning model along with its components. This article reports on product design results, validity tests, and practicality test. The study resulted in the design of cognitive conflict-based learning model with 4 learning syntaxes, namely (1) preconception activation, (2) presentation of cognitive conflict, (3) discovery of concepts & equations, (4) Reflection. The results of validity tests by some experts on aspects of content, didactic, appearance or language, indicate very valid criteria. Product trial results also show a very practical product to use. Based on pretest and posttest results, cognitive conflict-based learning models have a good impact on improving conceptual understanding and remediating misconceptions, especially in high-ability students.
Transformation in the pharmaceutical industry: transformation-induced quality risks--a survey.

PubMed

Shafiei, Nader; Ford, James L; Morecroft, Charles W; Lisboa, Paulo J; Taylor, Mark J; Mouzughi, Yusra

2013-01-01

This paper is the fourth in a series that explores ongoing transformation in the pharmaceutical industry and its impact on pharmaceutical quality from the perspective of risk identification. The aim of this paper is to validate proposed quality risks through elicitation of expert opinion and define the resultant quality risk model. Expert opinion was obtained using a questionnaire-based survey with participants with recognized expertise in pharmaceutical regulation, product lifecycle, or technology. The results of the survey validate the theoretical and operational evidence in support of the four main pharmaceutical transformation triggers previously identified. The quality risk model resulting from the survey indicated a firm relationship between the pharmaceutical quality risks and regulatory compliance outcomes during the marketing approval and post-marketing phases of the product lifecycle and a weaker relationship during the pre-market evaluation phase. In this paper through conduct of an expert opinion survey the proposed quality risks carried forward from an earlier part of the research are validated and resultant quality risk model is defined. The survey results validate the theoretical and operational evidence previously identified. The quality risk model indicates that transformation-related risks have a larger regulatory compliance impact during product approval, manufacturing, distribution, and commercial use than during the development phase.
Cross-validation of an employee safety climate model in Malaysia.

PubMed

Bahari, Siti Fatimah; Clarke, Sharon

2013-06-01

Whilst substantial research has investigated the nature of safety climate, and its importance as a leading indicator of organisational safety, much of this research has been conducted with Western industrial samples. The current study focuses on the cross-validation of a safety climate model in the non-Western industrial context of Malaysian manufacturing. The first-order factorial validity of Cheyne et al.'s (1998) [Cheyne, A., Cox, S., Oliver, A., Tomas, J.M., 1998. Modelling safety climate in the prediction of levels of safety activity. Work and Stress, 12(3), 255-271] model was tested, using confirmatory factor analysis, in a Malaysian sample. Results showed that the model fit indices were below accepted levels, indicating that the original Cheyne et al. (1998) safety climate model was not supported. An alternative three-factor model was developed using exploratory factor analysis. Although these findings are not consistent with previously reported cross-validation studies, we argue that previous studies have focused on validation across Western samples, and that the current study demonstrates the need to take account of cultural factors in the development of safety climate models intended for use in non-Western contexts. The results have important implications for the transferability of existing safety climate models across cultures (for example, in global organisations) and highlight the need for future research to examine cross-cultural issues in relation to safety climate. Copyright © 2013 National Safety Council and Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
On the validity of cosmic no-hair conjecture in an anisotropic inationary model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Do, Tuan Q.

2018-05-01

We will present main results of our recent investigations on the validity of cosmic no-hair conjecture proposed by Hawking and his colleagues long time ago in the framework of an anisotropic inflationary model proposed by Kanno, Soda, and Watanabe. As a result, we will show that the cosmic no-hair conjecture seems to be generally violated in the Kanno-Soda- Watanabe model for both canonical and non-canonical scalar fields due to the existence of a non-trivial coupling term between scalar and electromagnetic fields. However, we will also show that the validity of the cosmic no-hair conjecture will be ensured once a unusual scalar field called the phantom field, whose kinetic energy term is negative definite, is introduced into the Kanno-Soda-Watanabe model.
Time Domain Tool Validation Using ARES I-X Flight Data

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hough, Steven; Compton, James; Hannan, Mike; Brandon, Jay

2011-01-01

The ARES I-X vehicle was launched from NASA's Kennedy Space Center (KSC) on October 28, 2009 at approximately 11:30 EDT. ARES I-X was the first test flight for NASA s ARES I launch vehicle, and it was the first non-Shuttle launch vehicle designed and flown by NASA since Saturn. The ARES I-X had a 4-segment solid rocket booster (SRB) first stage and a dummy upper stage (US) to emulate the properties of the ARES I US. During ARES I-X pre-flight modeling and analysis, six (6) independent time domain simulation tools were developed and cross validated. Each tool represents an independent implementation of a common set of models and parameters in a different simulation framework and architecture. Post flight data and reconstructed models provide the means to validate a subset of the simulations against actual flight data and to assess the accuracy of pre-flight dispersion analysis. Post flight data consists of telemetered Operational Flight Instrumentation (OFI) data primarily focused on flight computer outputs and sensor measurements as well as Best Estimated Trajectory (BET) data that estimates vehicle state information from all available measurement sources. While pre-flight models were found to provide a reasonable prediction of the vehicle flight, reconstructed models were generated to better represent and simulate the ARES I-X flight. Post flight reconstructed models include: SRB propulsion model, thrust vector bias models, mass properties, base aerodynamics, and Meteorological Estimated Trajectory (wind and atmospheric data). The result of the effort is a set of independently developed, high fidelity, time-domain simulation tools that have been cross validated and validated against flight data. This paper presents the process and results of high fidelity aerospace modeling, simulation, analysis and tool validation in the time domain.

Motivation and personality: relationships between putative motive dimensions and the five factor model of personality.

PubMed

Bernard, Larry C

2010-04-01

There are few multidimensional measures of individual differences in motivation available. The Assessment of Individual Motives-Questionnaire assesses 15 putative dimensions of motivation. The dimensions are based on evolutionary theory and preliminary evidence suggests the motive scales have good psychometric properties. The scales are reliable and there is evidence of their consensual validity (convergence of self-other ratings) and behavioral validity (relationships with self-other reported behaviors of social importance). Additional validity research is necessary, however, especially with respect to current models of personality. The present study tested two general and 24 specific hypotheses based on proposed evolutionary advantages/disadvantages and fitness benefits/costs of the five-factor model of personality together with the new motive scales in a sample of 424 participants (M age=28.8 yr., SD=14.6). Results were largely supportive of the hypotheses. These results support the validity of new motive dimensions and increase understanding of the five-factor model of personality.
Recovery Act. Development and Validation of an Advanced Stimulation Prediction Model for Enhanced Geothermal System

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Gutierrez, Marte

The research project aims to develop and validate an advanced computer model that can be used in the planning and design of stimulation techniques to create engineered reservoirs for Enhanced Geothermal Systems. The specific objectives of the proposal are to: 1) Develop a true three-dimensional hydro-thermal fracturing simulator that is particularly suited for EGS reservoir creation. 2) Perform laboratory scale model tests of hydraulic fracturing and proppant flow/transport using a polyaxial loading device, and use the laboratory results to test and validate the 3D simulator. 3) Perform discrete element/particulate modeling of proppant transport in hydraulic fractures, and use the resultsmore » to improve understand of proppant flow and transport. 4) Test and validate the 3D hydro-thermal fracturing simulator against case histories of EGS energy production. 5) Develop a plan to commercialize the 3D fracturing and proppant flow/transport simulator. The project is expected to yield several specific results and benefits. Major technical products from the proposal include: 1) A true-3D hydro-thermal fracturing computer code that is particularly suited to EGS, 2) Documented results of scale model tests on hydro-thermal fracturing and fracture propping in an analogue crystalline rock, 3) Documented procedures and results of discrete element/particulate modeling of flow and transport of proppants for EGS applications, and 4) Database of monitoring data, with focus of Acoustic Emissions (AE) from lab scale modeling and field case histories of EGS reservoir creation.« less
Design and landing dynamic analysis of reusable landing leg for a near-space manned capsule

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yue, Shuai; Nie, Hong; Zhang, Ming; Wei, Xiaohui; Gan, Shengyong

2018-06-01

To improve the landing performance of a near-space manned capsule under various landing conditions, a novel landing system is designed that employs double chamber and single chamber dampers in the primary and auxiliary struts, respectively. A dynamic model of the landing system is established, and the damper parameters are determined by employing the design method. A single-leg drop test with different initial pitch angles is then conducted to compare and validate the simulation model. Based on the validated simulation model, seven critical landing conditions regarding nine crucial landing responses are found by combining the radial basis function (RBF) surrogate model and adaptive simulated annealing (ASA) optimization method. Subsequently, the adaptability of the landing system under critical landing conditions is analyzed. The results show that the simulation effectively results match the test results, which validates the accuracy of the dynamic model. In addition, all of the crucial responses under their corresponding critical landing conditions satisfy the design specifications, demonstrating the feasibility of the landing system.
Stochastic Hourly Weather Generator HOWGH: Validation and its Use in Pest Modelling under Present and Future Climates

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dubrovsky, M.; Hirschi, M.; Spirig, C.

2014-12-01

To quantify impact of the climate change on a specific pest (or any weather-dependent process) in a specific site, we may use a site-calibrated pest (or other) model and compare its outputs obtained with site-specific weather data representing present vs. perturbed climates. The input weather data may be produced by the stochastic weather generator. Apart from the quality of the pest model, the reliability of the results obtained in such experiment depend on an ability of the generator to represent the statistical structure of the real world weather series, and on the sensitivity of the pest model to possible imperfections of the generator. This contribution deals with the multivariate HOWGH weather generator, which is based on a combination of parametric and non-parametric statistical methods. Here, HOWGH is used to generate synthetic hourly series of three weather variables (solar radiation, temperature and precipitation) required by a dynamic pest model SOPRA to simulate the development of codling moth. The contribution presents results of the direct and indirect validation of HOWGH. In the direct validation, the synthetic series generated by HOWGH (various settings of its underlying model are assumed) are validated in terms of multiple climatic characteristics, focusing on the subdaily wet/dry and hot/cold spells. In the indirect validation, we assess the generator in terms of characteristics derived from the outputs of SOPRA model fed by the observed vs. synthetic series. The weather generator may be used to produce weather series representing present and future climates. In the latter case, the parameters of the generator may be modified by the climate change scenarios based on Global or Regional Climate Models. To demonstrate this feature, the results of codling moth simulations for future climate will be shown. Acknowledgements: The weather generator is developed and validated within the frame of projects WG4VALUE (project LD12029 sponsored by the Ministry of Education, Youth and Sports of CR), and VALUE (COST ES 1102 action).
Validity of the Eating Attitude Test among Exercisers.

PubMed

Lane, Helen J; Lane, Andrew M; Matheson, Hilary

2004-12-01

Theory testing and construct measurement are inextricably linked. To date, no published research has looked at the factorial validity of an existing eating attitude inventory for use with exercisers. The Eating Attitude Test (EAT) is a 26-item measure that yields a single index of disordered eating attitudes. The original factor analysis showed three interrelated factors: Dieting behavior (13-items), oral control (7-items), and bulimia nervosa-food preoccupation (6-items). The primary purpose of the study was to examine the factorial validity of the EAT among a sample of exercisers. The second purpose was to investigate relationships between eating attitudes scores and selected psychological constructs. In stage one, 598 regular exercisers completed the EAT. Confirmatory factor analysis (CFA) was used to test the single-factor, a three-factor model, and a four-factor model, which distinguished bulimia from food pre-occupation. CFA of the single-factor model (RCFI = 0.66, RMSEA = 0.10), the three-factor-model (RCFI = 0.74; RMSEA = 0.09) showed poor model fit. There was marginal fit for the 4-factor model (RCFI = 0.91, RMSEA = 0.06). Results indicated five-items showed poor factor loadings. After these 5-items were discarded, the three models were re-analyzed. CFA results indicated that the single-factor model (RCFI = 0.76, RMSEA = 0.10) and three-factor model (RCFI = 0.82, RMSEA = 0.08) showed poor fit. CFA results for the four-factor model showed acceptable fit indices (RCFI = 0.98, RMSEA = 0.06). Stage two explored relationships between EAT scores, mood, self-esteem, and motivational indices toward exercise in terms of self-determination, enjoyment and competence. Correlation results indicated that depressed mood scores positively correlated with bulimia and dieting scores. Further, dieting was inversely related with self-determination toward exercising. Collectively, findings suggest that a 21-item four-factor model shows promising validity coefficients among exercise participants, and that future research is needed to investigate eating attitudes among samples of exercisers. Key PointsValidity of psychometric measures should be thoroughly investigated. Researchers should not assume that a scale validation on one sample will show the same validity coefficients in a different population.The Eating Attitude Test is a commonly used scale. The present study shows a revised 21-item scale was suitable for exercisers.Researchers using the Eating Attitude Test should use subscales of Dieting, Oral control, Food pre-occupation, and Bulimia.Future research should involve qualitative techniques and interview exercise participants to explore the nature of eating attitudes.
Design of psychosocial factors questionnaires: a systematic measurement approach

PubMed Central

Vargas, Angélica; Felknor, Sarah A

2012-01-01

Background Evaluation of psychosocial factors requires instruments that measure dynamic complexities. This study explains the design of a set of questionnaires to evaluate work and non-work psychosocial risk factors for stress-related illnesses. Methods The measurement model was based on a review of literature. Content validity was performed by experts and cognitive interviews. Pilot testing was carried out with a convenience sample of 132 workers. Cronbach’s alpha evaluated internal consistency and concurrent validity was estimated by Spearman correlation coefficients. Results Three questionnaires were constructed to evaluate exposure to work and non-work risk factors. Content validity improved the questionnaires coherence with the measurement model. Internal consistency was adequate (α=0.85–0.95). Concurrent validity resulted in moderate correlations of psychosocial factors with stress symptoms. Conclusions Questionnaires´ content reflected a wide spectrum of psychosocial factors sources. Cognitive interviews improved understanding of questions and dimensions. The structure of the measurement model was confirmed. PMID:22628068
Toward a CFD nose-to-tail capability - Hypersonic unsteady Navier-Stokes code validation

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Edwards, Thomas A.; Flores, Jolen

1989-01-01

Computational fluid dynamics (CFD) research for hypersonic flows presents new problems in code validation because of the added complexity of the physical models. This paper surveys code validation procedures applicable to hypersonic flow models that include real gas effects. The current status of hypersonic CFD flow analysis is assessed with the Compressible Navier-Stokes (CNS) code as a case study. The methods of code validation discussed to beyond comparison with experimental data to include comparisons with other codes and formulations, component analyses, and estimation of numerical errors. Current results indicate that predicting hypersonic flows of perfect gases and equilibrium air are well in hand. Pressure, shock location, and integrated quantities are relatively easy to predict accurately, while surface quantities such as heat transfer are more sensitive to the solution procedure. Modeling transition to turbulence needs refinement, though preliminary results are promising.
Qualitative Validation of the IMM Model for ISS and STS Programs

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kerstman, E.; Walton, M.; Reyes, D.; Boley, L.; Saile, L.; Young, M.; Arellano, J.; Garcia, Y.; Myers, J. G.

2016-01-01

To validate and further improve the Integrated Medical Model (IMM), medical event data were obtained from 32 ISS and 122 STS person-missions. Using the crew characteristics from these observed missions, IMM v4.0 was used to forecast medical events and medical resource utilization. The IMM medical condition incidence values were compared to the actual observed medical event incidence values, and the IMM forecasted medical resource utilization was compared to actual observed medical resource utilization. Qualitative comparisons of these parameters were conducted for both the ISS and STS programs. The results of these analyses will provide validation of IMM v4.0 and reveal areas of the model requiring adjustments to improve the overall accuracy of IMM outputs. This validation effort should result in enhanced credibility of the IMM and improved confidence in the use of IMM as a decision support tool for human space flight.
IMPACT: a generic tool for modelling and simulating public health policy.

PubMed

Ainsworth, J D; Carruthers, E; Couch, P; Green, N; O'Flaherty, M; Sperrin, M; Williams, R; Asghar, Z; Capewell, S; Buchan, I E

2011-01-01

Populations are under-served by local health policies and management of resources. This partly reflects a lack of realistically complex models to enable appraisal of a wide range of potential options. Rising computing power coupled with advances in machine learning and healthcare information now enables such models to be constructed and executed. However, such models are not generally accessible to public health practitioners who often lack the requisite technical knowledge or skills. To design and develop a system for creating, executing and analysing the results of simulated public health and healthcare policy interventions, in ways that are accessible and usable by modellers and policy-makers. The system requirements were captured and analysed in parallel with the statistical method development for the simulation engine. From the resulting software requirement specification the system architecture was designed, implemented and tested. A model for Coronary Heart Disease (CHD) was created and validated against empirical data. The system was successfully used to create and validate the CHD model. The initial validation results show concordance between the simulation results and the empirical data. We have demonstrated the ability to connect health policy-modellers and policy-makers in a unified system, thereby making population health models easier to share, maintain, reuse and deploy.
Validation of Community Models: 2. Development of a Baseline, Using the Wang-Sheeley-Arge Model

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

MacNeice, Peter

2009-01-01

This paper is the second in a series providing independent validation of community models of the outer corona and inner heliosphere. Here I present a comprehensive validation of the Wang-Sheeley-Arge (WSA) model. These results will serve as a baseline against which to compare the next generation of comparable forecasting models. The WSA model is used by a number of agencies to predict Solar wind conditions at Earth up to 4 days into the future. Given its importance to both the research and forecasting communities, it is essential that its performance be measured systematically and independently. I offer just such an independent and systematic validation. I report skill scores for the model's predictions of wind speed and interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) polarity for a large set of Carrington rotations. The model was run in all its routinely used configurations. It ingests synoptic line of sight magnetograms. For this study I generated model results for monthly magnetograms from multiple observatories, spanning the Carrington rotation range from 1650 to 2074. I compare the influence of the different magnetogram sources and performance at quiet and active times. I also consider the ability of the WSA model to forecast both sharp transitions in wind speed from slow to fast wind and reversals in the polarity of the radial component of the IMF. These results will serve as a baseline against which to compare future versions of the model as well as the current and future generation of magnetohydrodynamic models under development for forecasting use.
Validating a model that predicts daily growth and feed quality of New Zealand dairy pastures.

PubMed

Woodward, S J

2001-09-01

The Pasture Quality (PQ) model is a simple, mechanistic, dynamical system model that was designed to capture the essential biological processes in grazed grass-clover pasture, and to be optimised to derive improved grazing strategies for New Zealand dairy farms. While the individual processes represented in the model (photosynthesis, tissue growth, flowering, leaf death, decomposition, worms) were based on experimental data, this did not guarantee that the assembled model would accurately predict the behaviour of the system as a whole (i.e., pasture growth and quality). Validation of the whole model was thus a priority, since any strategy derived from the model could impact a farm business in the order of thousands of dollars per annum if adopted. This paper describes the process of defining performance criteria for the model, obtaining suitable data to test the model, and carrying out the validation analysis. The validation process highlighted a number of weaknesses in the model, which will lead to the model being improved. As a result, the model's utility will be enhanced. Furthermore, validation was found to have an unexpected additional benefit, in that despite the model's poor initial performance, support was generated for the model among field scientists involved in the wider project.
Accelerated Aging in Electrolytic Capacitors for Prognostics

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Celaya, Jose R.; Kulkarni, Chetan; Saha, Sankalita; Biswas, Gautam; Goebel, Kai Frank

2012-01-01

The focus of this work is the analysis of different degradation phenomena based on thermal overstress and electrical overstress accelerated aging systems and the use of accelerated aging techniques for prognostics algorithm development. Results on thermal overstress and electrical overstress experiments are presented. In addition, preliminary results toward the development of physics-based degradation models are presented focusing on the electrolyte evaporation failure mechanism. An empirical degradation model based on percentage capacitance loss under electrical overstress is presented and used in: (i) a Bayesian-based implementation of model-based prognostics using a discrete Kalman filter for health state estimation, and (ii) a dynamic system representation of the degradation model for forecasting and remaining useful life (RUL) estimation. A leave-one-out validation methodology is used to assess the validity of the methodology under the small sample size constrain. The results observed on the RUL estimation are consistent through the validation tests comparing relative accuracy and prediction error. It has been observed that the inaccuracy of the model to represent the change in degradation behavior observed at the end of the test data is consistent throughout the validation tests, indicating the need of a more detailed degradation model or the use of an algorithm that could estimate model parameters on-line. Based on the observed degradation process under different stress intensity with rest periods, the need for more sophisticated degradation models is further supported. The current degradation model does not represent the capacitance recovery over rest periods following an accelerated aging stress period.
Psychometric Properties of the “Sport Motivation Scale (SMS)” Adapted to Physical Education

PubMed Central

Granero-Gallegos, Antonio; Baena-Extremera, Antonio; Gómez-López, Manuel; Sánchez-Fuentes, José Antonio; Abraldes, J. Arturo

2014-01-01

The aim of this study was to investigate the factor structure of a Spanish version of the Sport Motivation Scale adapted to physical education. A second aim was to test which one of three hypothesized models (three, five and seven-factor) provided best model fit. 758 Spanish high school students completed the Sport Motivation Scale adapted for Physical Education and also completed the Learning and Performance Orientation in Physical Education Classes Questionnaire. We examined the factor structure of each model using confirmatory factor analysis and also assessed internal consistency and convergent validity. The results showed that all three models in Spanish produce good indicators of fitness, but we suggest using the seven-factor model (χ2/gl = 2.73; ECVI = 1.38) as it produces better values when adapted to physical education, that five-factor model (χ2/gl = 2.82; ECVI = 1.44) and three-factor model (χ2/gl = 3.02; ECVI = 1.53). Key Points Physical education research conducted in Spain has used the version of SMS designed to assess motivation in sport, but validity reliability and validity results in physical education have not been reported. Results of the present study lend support to the factorial validity and internal reliability of three alternative factor structures (3, 5, and 7 factors) of SMS adapted to Physical Education in Spanish. Although all three models in Spanish produce good indicators of fitness, but we suggest using the seven-factor model. PMID:25435772
Validating proposed migration equation and parameters' values as a tool to reproduce and predict 137Cs vertical migration activity in Spanish soils.

PubMed

Olondo, C; Legarda, F; Herranz, M; Idoeta, R

2017-04-01

This paper shows the procedure performed to validate the migration equation and the migration parameters' values presented in a previous paper (Legarda et al., 2011) regarding the migration of 137 Cs in Spanish mainland soils. In this paper, this model validation has been carried out checking experimentally obtained activity concentration values against those predicted by the model. This experimental data come from the measured vertical activity profiles of 8 new sampling points which are located in northern Spain. Before testing predicted values of the model, the uncertainty of those values has been assessed with the appropriate uncertainty analysis. Once establishing the uncertainty of the model, both activity concentration values, experimental versus model predicted ones, have been compared. Model validation has been performed analyzing its accuracy, studying it as a whole and also at different depth intervals. As a result, this model has been validated as a tool to predict 137 Cs behaviour in a Mediterranean environment. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
A Case Study on a Combination NDVI Forecasting Model Based on the Entropy Weight Method

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Huang, Shengzhi; Ming, Bo; Huang, Qiang

It is critically meaningful to accurately predict NDVI (Normalized Difference Vegetation Index), which helps guide regional ecological remediation and environmental managements. In this study, a combination forecasting model (CFM) was proposed to improve the performance of NDVI predictions in the Yellow River Basin (YRB) based on three individual forecasting models, i.e., the Multiple Linear Regression (MLR), Artificial Neural Network (ANN), and Support Vector Machine (SVM) models. The entropy weight method was employed to determine the weight coefficient for each individual model depending on its predictive performance. Results showed that: (1) ANN exhibits the highest fitting capability among the four orecastingmore » models in the calibration period, whilst its generalization ability becomes weak in the validation period; MLR has a poor performance in both calibration and validation periods; the predicted results of CFM in the calibration period have the highest stability; (2) CFM generally outperforms all individual models in the validation period, and can improve the reliability and stability of predicted results through combining the strengths while reducing the weaknesses of individual models; (3) the performances of all forecasting models are better in dense vegetation areas than in sparse vegetation areas.« less
Load Model Verification, Validation and Calibration Framework by Statistical Analysis on Field Data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jiao, Xiangqing; Liao, Yuan; Nguyen, Thai

2017-11-01

Accurate load models are critical for power system analysis and operation. A large amount of research work has been done on load modeling. Most of the existing research focuses on developing load models, while little has been done on developing formal load model verification and validation (V&V) methodologies or procedures. Most of the existing load model validation is based on qualitative rather than quantitative analysis. In addition, not all aspects of model V&V problem have been addressed by the existing approaches. To complement the existing methods, this paper proposes a novel load model verification and validation framework that can systematically and more comprehensively examine load model's effectiveness and accuracy. Statistical analysis, instead of visual check, quantifies the load model's accuracy, and provides a confidence level of the developed load model for model users. The analysis results can also be used to calibrate load models. The proposed framework can be used as a guidance to systematically examine load models for utility engineers and researchers. The proposed method is demonstrated through analysis of field measurements collected from a utility system.
Towards improved capability and confidence in coupled atmospheric and wildland fire modeling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sauer, Jeremy A.

This dissertation work is aimed at improving the capability and confidence in a modernized and improved version of Los Alamos National Laboratory's coupled atmospheric and wild- land fire dynamics model, Higrad-Firetec. Higrad is the hydrodynamics component of this large eddy simulation model that solves the three dimensional, fully compressible Navier-Stokes equations, incorporating a dynamic eddy viscosity formulation through a two-scale turbulence closure scheme. Firetec is the vegetation, drag forcing, and combustion physics portion that is integrated with Higrad. The modern version of Higrad-Firetec incorporates multiple numerical methodologies and high performance computing aspects which combine to yield a unique tool capable of augmenting theoretical and observational investigations in order to better understand the multi-scale, multi-phase, and multi-physics, phenomena involved in coupled atmospheric and environmental dynamics. More specifically, the current work includes extended functionality and validation efforts targeting component processes in coupled atmospheric and wildland fire scenarios. Since observational data of sufficient quality and resolution to validate the fully coupled atmosphere-wildfire scenario simply does not exist, we instead seek to validate components of the full prohibitively convoluted process. This manuscript provides first, an introduction and background into the application space of Higrad-Firetec. Second we document the model formulation, solution procedure, and a simple scalar transport verification exercise. Third, we perform a validate model results against observational data for time averaged flow field metrics in and above four idealized forest canopies. Fourth, we carry out a validation effort for the non-buoyant jet in a crossflow scenario (to which an analogy can be made for atmosphere-wildfire interactions) comparing model results to laboratory data of both steady-in-time and unsteady-in-time metrics. Finally, an extension of model multi-phase physics is implemented, allowing for the representation of multiple collocated fuels as separately evolving constituents leading to differences resulting rate of spread and total burned area. In combination these efforts demonstrate improved capability, increased validation of component functionality, and unique applicability the Higrad-Firetec modeling framework. As a result this work provides a substantially more robust foundation for future new, more widely acceptable investigations into the complexities of coupled atmospheric and wildland fire behavior.
Analysis of model development strategies: predicting ventral hernia recurrence.

PubMed

Holihan, Julie L; Li, Linda T; Askenasy, Erik P; Greenberg, Jacob A; Keith, Jerrod N; Martindale, Robert G; Roth, J Scott; Liang, Mike K

2016-11-01

There have been many attempts to identify variables associated with ventral hernia recurrence; however, it is unclear which statistical modeling approach results in models with greatest internal and external validity. We aim to assess the predictive accuracy of models developed using five common variable selection strategies to determine variables associated with hernia recurrence. Two multicenter ventral hernia databases were used. Database 1 was randomly split into "development" and "internal validation" cohorts. Database 2 was designated "external validation". The dependent variable for model development was hernia recurrence. Five variable selection strategies were used: (1) "clinical"-variables considered clinically relevant, (2) "selective stepwise"-all variables with a P value <0.20 were assessed in a step-backward model, (3) "liberal stepwise"-all variables were included and step-backward regression was performed, (4) "restrictive internal resampling," and (5) "liberal internal resampling." Variables were included with P < 0.05 for the Restrictive model and P < 0.10 for the Liberal model. A time-to-event analysis using Cox regression was performed using these strategies. The predictive accuracy of the developed models was tested on the internal and external validation cohorts using Harrell's C-statistic where C > 0.70 was considered "reasonable". The recurrence rate was 32.9% (n = 173/526; median/range follow-up, 20/1-58 mo) for the development cohort, 36.0% (n = 95/264, median/range follow-up 20/1-61 mo) for the internal validation cohort, and 12.7% (n = 155/1224, median/range follow-up 9/1-50 mo) for the external validation cohort. Internal validation demonstrated reasonable predictive accuracy (C-statistics = 0.772, 0.760, 0.767, 0.757, 0.763), while on external validation, predictive accuracy dipped precipitously (C-statistic = 0.561, 0.557, 0.562, 0.553, 0.560). Predictive accuracy was equally adequate on internal validation among models; however, on external validation, all five models failed to demonstrate utility. Future studies should report multiple variable selection techniques and demonstrate predictive accuracy on external data sets for model validation. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.
DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

English, Shawn A.; Briggs, Timothy M.; Nelson, Stacy M.

Simulations of low velocity impact with a flat cylindrical indenter upon a carbon fiber fabric reinforced polymer laminate are rigorously validated. Comparison of the impact energy absorption between the model and experiment is used as the validation metric. Additionally, non-destructive evaluation, including ultrasonic scans and three-dimensional computed tomography, provide qualitative validation of the models. The simulations include delamination, matrix cracks and fiber breaks. An orthotropic damage and failure constitutive model, capable of predicting progressive damage and failure, is developed in conjunction and described. An ensemble of simulations incorporating model parameter uncertainties is used to predict a response distribution which ismore » then compared to experimental output using appropriate statistical methods. Lastly, the model form errors are exposed and corrected for use in an additional blind validation analysis. The result is a quantifiable confidence in material characterization and model physics when simulating low velocity impact in structures of interest.« less
Estimation of Unsteady Aerodynamic Models from Dynamic Wind Tunnel Data

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Murphy, Patrick; Klein, Vladislav

2011-01-01

Demanding aerodynamic modelling requirements for military and civilian aircraft have motivated researchers to improve computational and experimental techniques and to pursue closer collaboration in these areas. Model identification and validation techniques are key components for this research. This paper presents mathematical model structures and identification techniques that have been used successfully to model more general aerodynamic behaviours in single-degree-of-freedom dynamic testing. Model parameters, characterizing aerodynamic properties, are estimated using linear and nonlinear regression methods in both time and frequency domains. Steps in identification including model structure determination, parameter estimation, and model validation, are addressed in this paper with examples using data from one-degree-of-freedom dynamic wind tunnel and water tunnel experiments. These techniques offer a methodology for expanding the utility of computational methods in application to flight dynamics, stability, and control problems. Since flight test is not always an option for early model validation, time history comparisons are commonly made between computational and experimental results and model adequacy is inferred by corroborating results. An extension is offered to this conventional approach where more general model parameter estimates and their standard errors are compared.

Recent Advances in Simulation of Eddy Current Testing of Tubes and Experimental Validations

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Reboud, C.; Premel, D.; Lesselier, D.

2007-03-21

Eddy current testing (ECT) is widely used in iron and steel industry for the inspection of tubes during manufacturing. A collaboration between CEA and the Vallourec Research Center led to the development of new numerical functionalities dedicated to the simulation of ECT of non-magnetic tubes by external probes. The achievement of experimental validations led us to the integration of these models into the CIVA platform. Modeling approach and validation results are discussed here. A new numerical scheme is also proposed in order to improve the accuracy of the model.
Recent Advances in Simulation of Eddy Current Testing of Tubes and Experimental Validations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Reboud, C.; Prémel, D.; Lesselier, D.; Bisiaux, B.

2007-03-01

Eddy current testing (ECT) is widely used in iron and steel industry for the inspection of tubes during manufacturing. A collaboration between CEA and the Vallourec Research Center led to the development of new numerical functionalities dedicated to the simulation of ECT of non-magnetic tubes by external probes. The achievement of experimental validations led us to the integration of these models into the CIVA platform. Modeling approach and validation results are discussed here. A new numerical scheme is also proposed in order to improve the accuracy of the model.
Building and validating a prediction model for paediatric type 1 diabetes risk using next generation targeted sequencing of class II HLA genes.

PubMed

Zhao, Lue Ping; Carlsson, Annelie; Larsson, Helena Elding; Forsander, Gun; Ivarsson, Sten A; Kockum, Ingrid; Ludvigsson, Johnny; Marcus, Claude; Persson, Martina; Samuelsson, Ulf; Örtqvist, Eva; Pyo, Chul-Woo; Bolouri, Hamid; Zhao, Michael; Nelson, Wyatt C; Geraghty, Daniel E; Lernmark, Åke

2017-11-01

It is of interest to predict possible lifetime risk of type 1 diabetes (T1D) in young children for recruiting high-risk subjects into longitudinal studies of effective prevention strategies. Utilizing a case-control study in Sweden, we applied a recently developed next generation targeted sequencing technology to genotype class II genes and applied an object-oriented regression to build and validate a prediction model for T1D. In the training set, estimated risk scores were significantly different between patients and controls (P = 8.12 × 10 -92 ), and the area under the curve (AUC) from the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) analysis was 0.917. Using the validation data set, we validated the result with AUC of 0.886. Combining both training and validation data resulted in a predictive model with AUC of 0.903. Further, we performed a "biological validation" by correlating risk scores with 6 islet autoantibodies, and found that the risk score was significantly correlated with IA-2A (Z-score = 3.628, P < 0.001). When applying this prediction model to the Swedish population, where the lifetime T1D risk ranges from 0.5% to 2%, we anticipate identifying approximately 20 000 high-risk subjects after testing all newborns, and this calculation would identify approximately 80% of all patients expected to develop T1D in their lifetime. Through both empirical and biological validation, we have established a prediction model for estimating lifetime T1D risk, using class II HLA. This prediction model should prove useful for future investigations to identify high-risk subjects for prevention research in high-risk populations. Copyright © 2017 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.
Real-time remote scientific model validation

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Frainier, Richard; Groleau, Nicolas

1994-01-01

This paper describes flight results from the use of a CLIPS-based validation facility to compare analyzed data from a space life sciences (SLS) experiment to an investigator's preflight model. The comparison, performed in real-time, either confirms or refutes the model and its predictions. This result then becomes the basis for continuing or modifying the investigator's experiment protocol. Typically, neither the astronaut crew in Spacelab nor the ground-based investigator team are able to react to their experiment data in real time. This facility, part of a larger science advisor system called Principal Investigator in a Box, was flown on the space shuttle in October, 1993. The software system aided the conduct of a human vestibular physiology experiment and was able to outperform humans in the tasks of data integrity assurance, data analysis, and scientific model validation. Of twelve preflight hypotheses associated with investigator's model, seven were confirmed and five were rejected or compromised.
Flexible energy harvesting from hard piezoelectric beams

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Delnavaz, Aidin; Voix, Jérémie

2016-11-01

This paper presents design, multiphysics finite element modeling and experimental validation of a new miniaturized PZT generator that integrates a bulk piezoelectric ceramic onto a flexible platform for energy harvesting from the human body pressing force. In spite of its flexibility, the mechanical structure of the proposed device is simple to fabricate and efficient for the energy conversion. The finite element model involves both mechanical and piezoelectric parts of the device coupled with the electrical circuit model. The energy harvester prototype was fabricated and tested under the low frequency periodic pressing force during 10 seconds. The experimental results show that several nano joules of electrical energy is stored in a capacitor that is quite significant given the size of the device. The finite element model is validated by observing a good agreement between experimental and simulation results. the validated model could be used for optimizing the device for energy harvesting from earcanal deformations.
DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Chen, X; Wang, J; Hu, W

Purpose: The Varian RapidPlan™ is a commercial knowledge-based optimization process which uses a set of clinically used treatment plans to train a model that can predict individualized dose-volume objectives. The purpose of this study is to evaluate the performance of RapidPlan to generate intensity modulated radiation therapy (IMRT) plans for cervical cancer. Methods: Totally 70 IMRT plans for cervical cancer with varying clinical and physiological indications were enrolled in this study. These patients were all previously treated in our institution. There were two prescription levels usually used in our institution: 45Gy/25 fractions and 50.4Gy/28 fractions. 50 of these plans weremore » selected to train the RapidPlan model for predicting dose-volume constraints. After model training, this model was validated with 10 plans from training pool(internal validation) and additional other 20 new plans(external validation). All plans used for the validation were re-optimized with the original beam configuration and the generated priorities from RapidPlan were manually adjusted to ensure that re-optimized DVH located in the range of the model prediction. DVH quantitative analysis was performed to compare the RapidPlan generated and the original manual optimized plans. Results: For all the validation cases, RapidPlan based plans (RapidPlan) showed similar or superior results compared to the manual optimized ones. RapidPlan increased the result of D98% and homogeneity in both two validations. For organs at risk, the RapidPlan decreased mean doses of bladder by 1.25Gy/1.13Gy (internal/external validation) on average, with p=0.12/p<0.01. The mean dose of rectum and bowel were also decreased by an average of 2.64Gy/0.83Gy and 0.66Gy/1.05Gy,with p<0.01/ p<0.01and p=0.04/<0.01 for the internal/external validation, respectively. Conclusion: The RapidPlan model based cervical cancer plans shows ability to systematically improve the IMRT plan quality. It suggests that RapidPlan has great potential to make the treatment planning process more efficient.« less
Development and validation of a new population-based simulation model of osteoarthritis in New Zealand.

PubMed

Wilson, R; Abbott, J H

2018-04-01

To describe the construction and preliminary validation of a new population-based microsimulation model developed to analyse the health and economic burden and cost-effectiveness of treatments for knee osteoarthritis (OA) in New Zealand (NZ). We developed the New Zealand Management of Osteoarthritis (NZ-MOA) model, a discrete-time state-transition microsimulation model of the natural history of radiographic knee OA. In this article, we report on the model structure, derivation of input data, validation of baseline model parameters against external data sources, and validation of model outputs by comparison of the predicted population health loss with previous estimates. The NZ-MOA model simulates both the structural progression of radiographic knee OA and the stochastic development of multiple disease symptoms. Input parameters were sourced from NZ population-based data where possible, and from international sources where NZ-specific data were not available. The predicted distributions of structural OA severity and health utility detriments associated with OA were externally validated against other sources of evidence, and uncertainty resulting from key input parameters was quantified. The resulting lifetime and current population health-loss burden was consistent with estimates of previous studies. The new NZ-MOA model provides reliable estimates of the health loss associated with knee OA in the NZ population. The model structure is suitable for analysis of the effects of a range of potential treatments, and will be used in future work to evaluate the cost-effectiveness of recommended interventions within the NZ healthcare system. Copyright © 2018 Osteoarthritis Research Society International. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
Modeling the effects of argument length and validity on inductive and deductive reasoning.

PubMed

Rotello, Caren M; Heit, Evan

2009-09-01

In an effort to assess models of inductive reasoning and deductive reasoning, the authors, in 3 experiments, examined the effects of argument length and logical validity on evaluation of arguments. In Experiments 1a and 1b, participants were given either induction or deduction instructions for a common set of stimuli. Two distinct effects were observed: Induction judgments were more affected by argument length, and deduction judgments were more affected by validity. In Experiment 2, fluency was manipulated by displaying the materials in a low-contrast font, leading to increased sensitivity to logical validity. Several variants of 1-process and 2-process models of reasoning were assessed against the results. A 1-process model that assumed the same scale of argument strength underlies induction and deduction was not successful. A 2-process model that assumed separate, continuous informational dimensions of apparent deductive validity and associative strength gave the more successful account. (c) 2009 APA, all rights reserved.
PCA as a practical indicator of OPLS-DA model reliability.

PubMed

Worley, Bradley; Powers, Robert

Principal Component Analysis (PCA) and Orthogonal Projections to Latent Structures Discriminant Analysis (OPLS-DA) are powerful statistical modeling tools that provide insights into separations between experimental groups based on high-dimensional spectral measurements from NMR, MS or other analytical instrumentation. However, when used without validation, these tools may lead investigators to statistically unreliable conclusions. This danger is especially real for Partial Least Squares (PLS) and OPLS, which aggressively force separations between experimental groups. As a result, OPLS-DA is often used as an alternative method when PCA fails to expose group separation, but this practice is highly dangerous. Without rigorous validation, OPLS-DA can easily yield statistically unreliable group separation. A Monte Carlo analysis of PCA group separations and OPLS-DA cross-validation metrics was performed on NMR datasets with statistically significant separations in scores-space. A linearly increasing amount of Gaussian noise was added to each data matrix followed by the construction and validation of PCA and OPLS-DA models. With increasing added noise, the PCA scores-space distance between groups rapidly decreased and the OPLS-DA cross-validation statistics simultaneously deteriorated. A decrease in correlation between the estimated loadings (added noise) and the true (original) loadings was also observed. While the validity of the OPLS-DA model diminished with increasing added noise, the group separation in scores-space remained basically unaffected. Supported by the results of Monte Carlo analyses of PCA group separations and OPLS-DA cross-validation metrics, we provide practical guidelines and cross-validatory recommendations for reliable inference from PCA and OPLS-DA models.
Development and validation of a cost-utility model for Type 1 diabetes mellitus.

PubMed

Wolowacz, S; Pearson, I; Shannon, P; Chubb, B; Gundgaard, J; Davies, M; Briggs, A

2015-08-01

To develop a health economic model to evaluate the cost-effectiveness of new interventions for Type 1 diabetes mellitus by their effects on long-term complications (measured through mean HbA1c ) while capturing the impact of treatment on hypoglycaemic events. Through a systematic review, we identified complications associated with Type 1 diabetes mellitus and data describing the long-term incidence of these complications. An individual patient simulation model was developed and included the following complications: cardiovascular disease, peripheral neuropathy, microalbuminuria, end-stage renal disease, proliferative retinopathy, ketoacidosis, cataract, hypoglycemia and adverse birth outcomes. Risk equations were developed from published cumulative incidence data and hazard ratios for the effect of HbA1c , age and duration of diabetes. We validated the model by comparing model predictions with observed outcomes from studies used to build the model (internal validation) and from other published data (external validation). We performed illustrative analyses for typical patient cohorts and a hypothetical intervention. Model predictions were within 2% of expected values in the internal validation and within 8% of observed values in the external validation (percentages represent absolute differences in the cumulative incidence). The model utilized high-quality, recent data specific to people with Type 1 diabetes mellitus. In the model validation, results deviated less than 8% from expected values. © 2014 Research Triangle Institute d/b/a RTI Health Solutions. Diabetic Medicine © 2014 Diabetes UK.
Aeroservoelastic Model Validation and Test Data Analysis of the F/A-18 Active Aeroelastic Wing

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Brenner, Martin J.; Prazenica, Richard J.

2003-01-01

Model validation and flight test data analysis require careful consideration of the effects of uncertainty, noise, and nonlinearity. Uncertainty prevails in the data analysis techniques and results in a composite model uncertainty from unmodeled dynamics, assumptions and mechanics of the estimation procedures, noise, and nonlinearity. A fundamental requirement for reliable and robust model development is an attempt to account for each of these sources of error, in particular, for model validation, robust stability prediction, and flight control system development. This paper is concerned with data processing procedures for uncertainty reduction in model validation for stability estimation and nonlinear identification. F/A-18 Active Aeroelastic Wing (AAW) aircraft data is used to demonstrate signal representation effects on uncertain model development, stability estimation, and nonlinear identification. Data is decomposed using adaptive orthonormal best-basis and wavelet-basis signal decompositions for signal denoising into linear and nonlinear identification algorithms. Nonlinear identification from a wavelet-based Volterra kernel procedure is used to extract nonlinear dynamics from aeroelastic responses, and to assist model development and uncertainty reduction for model validation and stability prediction by removing a class of nonlinearity from the uncertainty.
Validation Test Report For The CRWMS Analysis and Logistics Visually Interactive Model Calvin Version 3.0, 10074-Vtr-3.0-00

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

S. Gillespie

2000-07-27

This report describes the tests performed to validate the CRWMS ''Analysis and Logistics Visually Interactive'' Model (CALVIN) Version 3.0 (V3.0) computer code (STN: 10074-3.0-00). To validate the code, a series of test cases was developed in the CALVIN V3.0 Validation Test Plan (CRWMS M&O 1999a) that exercises the principal calculation models and options of CALVIN V3.0. Twenty-five test cases were developed: 18 logistics test cases and 7 cost test cases. These cases test the features of CALVIN in a sequential manner, so that the validation of each test case is used to demonstrate the accuracy of the input to subsequentmore » calculations. Where necessary, the test cases utilize reduced-size data tables to make the hand calculations used to verify the results more tractable, while still adequately testing the code's capabilities. Acceptance criteria, were established for the logistics and cost test cases in the Validation Test Plan (CRWMS M&O 1999a). The Logistics test cases were developed to test the following CALVIN calculation models: Spent nuclear fuel (SNF) and reactivity calculations; Options for altering reactor life; Adjustment of commercial SNF (CSNF) acceptance rates for fiscal year calculations and mid-year acceptance start; Fuel selection, transportation cask loading, and shipping to the Monitored Geologic Repository (MGR); Transportation cask shipping to and storage at an Interim Storage Facility (ISF); Reactor pool allocation options; and Disposal options at the MGR. Two types of cost test cases were developed: cases to validate the detailed transportation costs, and cases to validate the costs associated with the Civilian Radioactive Waste Management System (CRWMS) Management and Operating Contractor (M&O) and Regional Servicing Contractors (RSCs). For each test case, values calculated using Microsoft Excel 97 worksheets were compared to CALVIN V3.0 scenarios with the same input data and assumptions. All of the test case results compare with the CALVIN V3.0 results within the bounds of the acceptance criteria. Therefore, it is concluded that the CALVIN V3.0 calculation models and options tested in this report are validated.« less
Development of estrogen receptor beta binding prediction model using large sets of chemicals.

PubMed

Sakkiah, Sugunadevi; Selvaraj, Chandrabose; Gong, Ping; Zhang, Chaoyang; Tong, Weida; Hong, Huixiao

2017-11-03

We developed an ER β binding prediction model to facilitate identification of chemicals specifically bind ER β or ER α together with our previously developed ER α binding model. Decision Forest was used to train ER β binding prediction model based on a large set of compounds obtained from EADB. Model performance was estimated through 1000 iterations of 5-fold cross validations. Prediction confidence was analyzed using predictions from the cross validations. Informative chemical features for ER β binding were identified through analysis of the frequency data of chemical descriptors used in the models in the 5-fold cross validations. 1000 permutations were conducted to assess the chance correlation. The average accuracy of 5-fold cross validations was 93.14% with a standard deviation of 0.64%. Prediction confidence analysis indicated that the higher the prediction confidence the more accurate the predictions. Permutation testing results revealed that the prediction model is unlikely generated by chance. Eighteen informative descriptors were identified to be important to ER β binding prediction. Application of the prediction model to the data from ToxCast project yielded very high sensitivity of 90-92%. Our results demonstrated ER β binding of chemicals could be accurately predicted using the developed model. Coupling with our previously developed ER α prediction model, this model could be expected to facilitate drug development through identification of chemicals that specifically bind ER β or ER α .
Method validation for chemical composition determination by electron microprobe with wavelength dispersive spectrometer

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Herrera-Basurto, R.; Mercader-Trejo, F.; Muñoz-Madrigal, N.; Juárez-García, J. M.; Rodriguez-López, A.; Manzano-Ramírez, A.

2016-07-01

The main goal of method validation is to demonstrate that the method is suitable for its intended purpose. One of the advantages of analytical method validation is translated into a level of confidence about the measurement results reported to satisfy a specific objective. Elemental composition determination by wavelength dispersive spectrometer (WDS) microanalysis has been used over extremely wide areas, mainly in the field of materials science, impurity determinations in geological, biological and food samples. However, little information is reported about the validation of the applied methods. Herein, results of the in-house method validation for elemental composition determination by WDS are shown. SRM 482, a binary alloy Cu-Au of different compositions, was used during the validation protocol following the recommendations for method validation proposed by Eurachem. This paper can be taken as a reference for the evaluation of the validation parameters more frequently requested to get the accreditation under the requirements of the ISO/IEC 17025 standard: selectivity, limit of detection, linear interval, sensitivity, precision, trueness and uncertainty. A model for uncertainty estimation was proposed including systematic and random errors. In addition, parameters evaluated during the validation process were also considered as part of the uncertainty model.
Maximizing the Information and Validity of a Linear Composite in the Factor Analysis Model for Continuous Item Responses

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Ferrando, Pere J.

2008-01-01

This paper develops results and procedures for obtaining linear composites of factor scores that maximize: (a) test information, and (b) validity with respect to external variables in the multiple factor analysis (FA) model. I treat FA as a multidimensional item response theory model, and use Ackerman's multidimensional information approach based…
Computational fluid dynamics modeling of laboratory flames and an industrial flare.

PubMed

Singh, Kanwar Devesh; Gangadharan, Preeti; Chen, Daniel H; Lou, Helen H; Li, Xianchang; Richmond, Peyton

2014-11-01

A computational fluid dynamics (CFD) methodology for simulating the combustion process has been validated with experimental results. Three different types of experimental setups were used to validate the CFD model. These setups include an industrial-scale flare setups and two lab-scale flames. The CFD study also involved three different fuels: C3H6/CH/Air/N2, C2H4/O2/Ar and CH4/Air. In the first setup, flare efficiency data from the Texas Commission on Environmental Quality (TCEQ) 2010 field tests were used to validate the CFD model. In the second setup, a McKenna burner with flat flames was simulated. Temperature and mass fractions of important species were compared with the experimental data. Finally, results of an experimental study done at Sandia National Laboratories to generate a lifted jet flame were used for the purpose of validation. The reduced 50 species mechanism, LU 1.1, the realizable k-epsilon turbulence model, and the EDC turbulence-chemistry interaction model were usedfor this work. Flare efficiency, axial profiles of temperature, and mass fractions of various intermediate species obtained in the simulation were compared with experimental data and a good agreement between the profiles was clearly observed. In particular the simulation match with the TCEQ 2010 flare tests has been significantly improved (within 5% of the data) compared to the results reported by Singh et al. in 2012. Validation of the speciated flat flame data supports the view that flares can be a primary source offormaldehyde emission.
From model conception to verification and validation, a global approach to multiphase Navier-Stoke models with an emphasis on volcanic explosive phenomenology

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Dartevelle, Sebastian

2007-10-01

Large-scale volcanic eruptions are hazardous events that cannot be described by detailed and accurate in situ measurement: hence, little to no real-time data exists to rigorously validate current computer models of these events. In addition, such phenomenology involves highly complex, nonlinear, and unsteady physical behaviors upon many spatial and time scales. As a result, volcanic explosive phenomenology is poorly understood in terms of its physics, and inadequately constrained in terms of initial, boundary, and inflow conditions. Nevertheless, code verification and validation become even more critical because more and more volcanologists use numerical data for assessment and mitigation of volcanic hazards.more » In this report, we evaluate the process of model and code development in the context of geophysical multiphase flows. We describe: (1) the conception of a theoretical, multiphase, Navier-Stokes model, (2) its implementation into a numerical code, (3) the verification of the code, and (4) the validation of such a model within the context of turbulent and underexpanded jet physics. Within the validation framework, we suggest focusing on the key physics that control the volcanic clouds—namely, momentum-driven supersonic jet and buoyancy-driven turbulent plume. For instance, we propose to compare numerical results against a set of simple and well-constrained analog experiments, which uniquely and unambiguously represent each of the key-phenomenology. Key« less
Application of Petri net theory for modelling and validation of the sucrose breakdown pathway in the potato tuber.

PubMed

Koch, Ina; Junker, Björn H; Heiner, Monika

2005-04-01

Because of the complexity of metabolic networks and their regulation, formal modelling is a useful method to improve the understanding of these systems. An essential step in network modelling is to validate the network model. Petri net theory provides algorithms and methods, which can be applied directly to metabolic network modelling and analysis in order to validate the model. The metabolism between sucrose and starch in the potato tuber is of great research interest. Even if the metabolism is one of the best studied in sink organs, it is not yet fully understood. We provide an approach for model validation of metabolic networks using Petri net theory, which we demonstrate for the sucrose breakdown pathway in the potato tuber. We start with hierarchical modelling of the metabolic network as a Petri net and continue with the analysis of qualitative properties of the network. The results characterize the net structure and give insights into the complex net behaviour.
Validation of a dynamic linked segment model to calculate joint moments in lifting.

PubMed

de Looze, M P; Kingma, I; Bussmann, J B; Toussaint, H M

1992-08-01

A two-dimensional dynamic linked segment model was constructed and applied to a lifting activity. Reactive forces and moments were calculated by an instantaneous approach involving the application of Newtonian mechanics to individual adjacent rigid segments in succession. The analysis started once at the feet and once at a hands/load segment. The model was validated by comparing predicted external forces and moments at the feet or at a hands/load segment to actual values, which were simultaneously measured (ground reaction force at the feet) or assumed to be zero (external moments at feet and hands/load and external forces, beside gravitation, at hands/load). In addition, results of both procedures, in terms of joint moments, including the moment at the intervertebral disc between the fifth lumbar and first sacral vertebra (L5-S1), were compared. A correlation of r = 0.88 between calculated and measured vertical ground reaction forces was found. The calculated external forces and moments at the hands showed only minor deviations from the expected zero level. The moments at L5-S1, calculated starting from feet compared to starting from hands/load, yielded a coefficient of correlation of r = 0.99. However, moments calculated from hands/load were 3.6% (averaged values) and 10.9% (peak values) higher. This difference is assumed to be due mainly to erroneous estimations of the positions of centres of gravity and joint rotation centres. The estimation of the location of L5-S1 rotation axis can affect the results significantly. Despite the numerous studies estimating the load on the low back during lifting on the basis of linked segment models, only a few attempts to validate these models have been made. This study is concerned with the validity of the presented linked segment model. The results support the model's validity. Effects of several sources of error threatening the validity are discussed. Copyright © 1992. Published by Elsevier Ltd.
Using plot experiments to test the validity of mass balance models employed to estimate soil redistribution rates from 137Cs and 210Pb(ex) measurements.

PubMed

Porto, Paolo; Walling, Des E

2012-10-01

Information on rates of soil loss from agricultural land is a key requirement for assessing both on-site soil degradation and potential off-site sediment problems. Many models and prediction procedures have been developed to estimate rates of soil loss and soil redistribution as a function of the local topography, hydrometeorology, soil type and land management, but empirical data remain essential for validating and calibrating such models and prediction procedures. Direct measurements using erosion plots are, however, costly and the results obtained relate to a small enclosed area, which may not be representative of the wider landscape. In recent years, the use of fallout radionuclides and more particularly caesium-137 ((137)Cs) and excess lead-210 ((210)Pb(ex)) has been shown to provide a very effective means of documenting rates of soil loss and soil and sediment redistribution in the landscape. Several of the assumptions associated with the theoretical conversion models used with such measurements remain essentially unvalidated. This contribution describes the results of a measurement programme involving five experimental plots located in southern Italy, aimed at validating several of the basic assumptions commonly associated with the use of mass balance models for estimating rates of soil redistribution on cultivated land from (137)Cs and (210)Pb(ex) measurements. Overall, the results confirm the general validity of these assumptions and the importance of taking account of the fate of fresh fallout. However, further work is required to validate the conversion models employed in using fallout radionuclide measurements to document soil redistribution in the landscape and this could usefully direct attention to different environments and to the validation of the final estimates of soil redistribution rate as well as the assumptions of the models employed. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

A catch-up validation study of an in vitro skin irritation test method using reconstructed human epidermis LabCyte EPI-MODEL24.

PubMed

Kojima, Hajime; Katoh, Masakazu; Shinoda, Shinsuke; Hagiwara, Saori; Suzuki, Tamie; Izumi, Runa; Yamaguchi, Yoshihiro; Nakamura, Maki; Kasahawa, Toshihiko; Shibai, Aya

2014-07-01

Three validation studies were conducted by the Japanese Society for Alternatives to Animal Experiments in order to assess the performance of a skin irritation assay using reconstructed human epidermis (RhE) LabCyte EPI-MODEL24 (LabCyte EPI-MODEL24 SIT) developed by the Japan Tissue Engineering Co., Ltd. (J-TEC), and the results of these studies were submitted to the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) for the creation of a Test Guideline (TG). In the summary review report from the OECD, the peer review panel indicated the need to resolve an issue regarding the misclassification of 1-bromohexane. To this end, a rinsing operation intended to remove exposed chemicals was reviewed and the standard operating procedure (SOP) revised by J-TEC. Thereafter, in order to confirm general versatility of the revised SOP, a new validation management team was organized by the Japanese Center for the Validation of Alternative Methods (JaCVAM) to undertake a catch-up validation study that would compare the revised assay with similar in vitro skin irritation assays, per OECD TG No. 439 (2010). The catch-up validation and supplementary studies for LabCyte EPI-MODEL24 SIT using the revised SOPs were conducted at three laboratories. These results showed that the revised SOP of LabCyte EPI-MODEL24 SIT conformed more accurately to the classifications for skin irritation under the United Nations Globally Harmonised System of Classification and Labelling of Chemicals (UN GHS), thereby highlighting the importance of an optimized rinsing operation for the removal of exposed chemicals in obtaining consistent results from in vitro skin irritation assays. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.
Developing evaluation instrument based on CIPP models on the implementation of portfolio assessment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kurnia, Feni; Rosana, Dadan; Supahar

2017-08-01

This study aimed to develop an evaluation instrument constructed by CIPP model on the implementation of portfolio assessment in science learning. This study used research and development (R & D) method; adapting 4-D by the development of non-test instrument, and the evaluation instrument constructed by CIPP model. CIPP is the abbreviation of Context, Input, Process, and Product. The techniques of data collection were interviews, questionnaires, and observations. Data collection instruments were: 1) the interview guidelines for the analysis of the problems and the needs, 2) questionnaire to see level of accomplishment of portfolio assessment instrument, and 3) observation sheets for teacher and student to dig up responses to the portfolio assessment instrument. The data obtained was quantitative data obtained from several validators. The validators consist of two lecturers as the evaluation experts, two practitioners (science teachers), and three colleagues. This paper shows the results of content validity obtained from the validators and the analysis result of the data obtained by using Aikens' V formula. The results of this study shows that the evaluation instrument based on CIPP models is proper to evaluate the implementation of portfolio assessment instruments. Based on the experts' judgments, practitioners, and colleagues, the Aikens' V coefficient was between 0.86-1,00 which means that it is valid and can be used in the limited trial and operational field trial.
Validation of the Weight Concerns Scale Applied to Brazilian University Students.

PubMed

Dias, Juliana Chioda Ribeiro; da Silva, Wanderson Roberto; Maroco, João; Campos, Juliana Alvares Duarte Bonini

2015-06-01

The aim of this study was to evaluate the validity and reliability of the Portuguese version of the Weight Concerns Scale (WCS) when applied to Brazilian university students. The scale was completed by 1084 university students from Brazilian public education institutions. A confirmatory factor analysis was conducted. The stability of the model in independent samples was assessed through multigroup analysis, and the invariance was estimated. Convergent, concurrent, divergent, and criterion validities as well as internal consistency were estimated. Results indicated that the one-factor model presented an adequate fit to the sample and values of convergent validity. The concurrent validity with the Body Shape Questionnaire and divergent validity with the Maslach Burnout Inventory for Students were adequate. Internal consistency was adequate, and the factorial structure was invariant in independent subsamples. The results present a simple and short instrument capable of precisely and accurately assessing concerns with weight among Brazilian university students. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
Development and Validation of Personality Disorder Spectra Scales for the MMPI-2-RF.

PubMed

Sellbom, Martin; Waugh, Mark H; Hopwood, Christopher J

2018-01-01

The purpose of this study was to develop and validate a set of MMPI-2-RF (Ben-Porath & Tellegen, 2008/2011) personality disorder (PD) spectra scales. These scales could serve the purpose of assisting with DSM-5 PD diagnosis and help link categorical and dimensional conceptions of personality pathology within the MMPI-2-RF. We developed and provided initial validity results for scales corresponding to the 10 PD constructs listed in the DSM-5 using data from student, community, clinical, and correctional samples. Initial validation efforts indicated good support for criterion validity with an external PD measure as well as with dimensional personality traits included in the DSM-5 alternative model for PDs. Construct validity results using psychosocial history and therapists' ratings in a large clinical sample were generally supportive as well. Overall, these brief scales provide clinicians using MMPI-2-RF data with estimates of DSM-5 PD constructs that can support cross-model connections between categorical and dimensional assessment approaches.
Validity of Students Worksheet Based Problem-Based Learning for 9th Grade Junior High School in living organism Inheritance and Food Biotechnology.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jefriadi, J.; Ahda, Y.; Sumarmin, R.

2018-04-01

Based on preliminary research of students worksheet used by teachers has several disadvantages such as students worksheet arranged directly drove learners conduct an investigation without preceded by directing learners to a problem or provide stimulation, student's worksheet not provide a concrete imageand presentation activities on the students worksheet not refer to any one learning models curicullum recommended. To address problems Reviews these students then developed a worksheet based on problem-based learning. This is a research development that using Ploom models. The phases are preliminary research, development and assessment. The instruments used in data collection that includes pieces of observation/interviews, instrument self-evaluation, instruments validity. The results of the validation expert on student worksheets get a valid result the average value 80,1%. Validity of students worksheet based problem-based learning for 9th grade junior high school in living organism inheritance and food biotechnology get valid category.
CCR+: Metadata Based Extended Personal Health Record Data Model Interoperable with the ASTM CCR Standard

PubMed Central

Park, Yu Rang; Yoon, Young Jo; Jang, Tae Hun; Seo, Hwa Jeong

2014-01-01

Objectives Extension of the standard model while retaining compliance with it is a challenging issue because there is currently no method for semantically or syntactically verifying an extended data model. A metadata-based extended model, named CCR+, was designed and implemented to achieve interoperability between standard and extended models. Methods Furthermore, a multilayered validation method was devised to validate the standard and extended models. The American Society for Testing and Materials (ASTM) Community Care Record (CCR) standard was selected to evaluate the CCR+ model; two CCR and one CCR+ XML files were evaluated. Results In total, 188 metadata were extracted from the ASTM CCR standard; these metadata are semantically interconnected and registered in the metadata registry. An extended-data-model-specific validation file was generated from these metadata. This file can be used in a smartphone application (Health Avatar CCR+) as a part of a multilayered validation. The new CCR+ model was successfully evaluated via a patient-centric exchange scenario involving multiple hospitals, with the results supporting both syntactic and semantic interoperability between the standard CCR and extended, CCR+, model. Conclusions A feasible method for delivering an extended model that complies with the standard model is presented herein. There is a great need to extend static standard models such as the ASTM CCR in various domains: the methods presented here represent an important reference for achieving interoperability between standard and extended models. PMID:24627817
European Organization for Research and Treatment of Cancer Quality of Life Questionnaire Core 30: factorial models to Brazilian cancer patients

PubMed Central

Campos, Juliana Alvares Duarte Bonini; Spexoto, Maria Cláudia Bernardes; da Silva, Wanderson Roberto; Serrano, Sergio Vicente; Marôco, João

2018-01-01

ABSTRACT Objective To evaluate the psychometric properties of the seven theoretical models proposed in the literature for European Organization for Research and Treatment of Cancer Quality of Life Questionnaire Core 30 (EORTC QLQ-C30), when applied to a sample of Brazilian cancer patients. Methods Content and construct validity (factorial, convergent, discriminant) were estimated. Confirmatory factor analysis was performed. Convergent validity was analyzed using the average variance extracted. Discriminant validity was analyzed using correlational analysis. Internal consistency and composite reliability were used to assess the reliability of instrument. Results A total of 1,020 cancer patients participated. The mean age was 53.3±13.0 years, and 62% were female. All models showed adequate factorial validity for the study sample. Convergent and discriminant validities and the reliability were compromised in all of the models for all of the single items referring to symptoms, as well as for the “physical function” and “cognitive function” factors. Conclusion All theoretical models assessed in this study presented adequate factorial validity when applied to Brazilian cancer patients. The choice of the best model for use in research and/or clinical protocols should be centered on the purpose and underlying theory of each model. PMID:29694609
A Public-Private Partnership Develops and Externally Validates a 30-Day Hospital Readmission Risk Prediction Model

PubMed Central

Choudhry, Shahid A.; Li, Jing; Davis, Darcy; Erdmann, Cole; Sikka, Rishi; Sutariya, Bharat

2013-01-01

Introduction: Preventing the occurrence of hospital readmissions is needed to improve quality of care and foster population health across the care continuum. Hospitals are being held accountable for improving transitions of care to avert unnecessary readmissions. Advocate Health Care in Chicago and Cerner (ACC) collaborated to develop all-cause, 30-day hospital readmission risk prediction models to identify patients that need interventional resources. Ideally, prediction models should encompass several qualities: they should have high predictive ability; use reliable and clinically relevant data; use vigorous performance metrics to assess the models; be validated in populations where they are applied; and be scalable in heterogeneous populations. However, a systematic review of prediction models for hospital readmission risk determined that most performed poorly (average C-statistic of 0.66) and efforts to improve their performance are needed for widespread usage. Methods: The ACC team incorporated electronic health record data, utilized a mixed-method approach to evaluate risk factors, and externally validated their prediction models for generalizability. Inclusion and exclusion criteria were applied on the patient cohort and then split for derivation and internal validation. Stepwise logistic regression was performed to develop two predictive models: one for admission and one for discharge. The prediction models were assessed for discrimination ability, calibration, overall performance, and then externally validated. Results: The ACC Admission and Discharge Models demonstrated modest discrimination ability during derivation, internal and external validation post-recalibration (C-statistic of 0.76 and 0.78, respectively), and reasonable model fit during external validation for utility in heterogeneous populations. Conclusions: The ACC Admission and Discharge Models embody the design qualities of ideal prediction models. The ACC plans to continue its partnership to further improve and develop valuable clinical models. PMID:24224068
Validation of Slosh Modeling Approach Using STAR-CCM+

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Benson, David J.; Ng, Wanyi

2018-01-01

Without an adequate understanding of propellant slosh, the spacecraft attitude control system may be inadequate to control the spacecraft or there may be an unexpected loss of science observation time due to higher slosh settling times. Computational fluid dynamics (CFD) is used to model propellant slosh. STAR-CCM+ is a commercially available CFD code. This paper seeks to validate the CFD modeling approach via a comparison between STAR-CCM+ liquid slosh modeling results and experimental, empirically, and analytically derived results. The geometries examined are a bare right cylinder tank and a right cylinder with a single ring baffle.
MIXING STUDY FOR JT-71/72 TANKS

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Lee, S.

2013-11-26

All modeling calculations for the mixing operations of miscible fluids contained in HBLine tanks, JT-71/72, were performed by taking a three-dimensional Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) approach. The CFD modeling results were benchmarked against the literature results and the previous SRNL test results to validate the model. Final performance calculations were performed by using the validated model to quantify the mixing time for the HB-Line tanks. The mixing study results for the JT-71/72 tanks show that, for the cases modeled, the mixing time required for blending of the tank contents is no more than 35 minutes, which is well below 2.5more » hours of recirculation pump operation. Therefore, the results demonstrate the adequacy of 2.5 hours’ mixing time of the tank contents by one recirculation pump to get well mixed.« less
Validation of the SimSET simulation package for modeling the Siemens Biograph mCT PET scanner

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Poon, Jonathan K.; Dahlbom, Magnus L.; Casey, Michael E.; Qi, Jinyi; Cherry, Simon R.; Badawi, Ramsey D.

2015-02-01

Monte Carlo simulation provides a valuable tool in performance assessment and optimization of system design parameters for PET scanners. SimSET is a popular Monte Carlo simulation toolkit that features fast simulation time, as well as variance reduction tools to further enhance computational efficiency. However, SimSET has lacked the ability to simulate block detectors until its most recent release. Our goal is to validate new features of SimSET by developing a simulation model of the Siemens Biograph mCT PET scanner and comparing the results to a simulation model developed in the GATE simulation suite and to experimental results. We used the NEMA NU-2 2007 scatter fraction, count rates, and spatial resolution protocols to validate the SimSET simulation model and its new features. The SimSET model overestimated the experimental results of the count rate tests by 11-23% and the spatial resolution test by 13-28%, which is comparable to previous validation studies of other PET scanners in the literature. The difference between the SimSET and GATE simulation was approximately 4-8% for the count rate test and approximately 3-11% for the spatial resolution test. In terms of computational time, SimSET performed simulations approximately 11 times faster than GATE simulations. The new block detector model in SimSET offers a fast and reasonably accurate simulation toolkit for PET imaging applications.
The Application of FT-IR Spectroscopy for Quality Control of Flours Obtained from Polish Producers

PubMed Central

Ceglińska, Alicja; Reder, Magdalena; Ciemniewska-Żytkiewicz, Hanna

2017-01-01

Samples of wheat, spelt, rye, and triticale flours produced by different Polish mills were studied by both classic chemical methods and FT-IR MIR spectroscopy. An attempt was made to statistically correlate FT-IR spectral data with reference data with regard to content of various components, for example, proteins, fats, ash, and fatty acids as well as properties such as moisture, falling number, and energetic value. This correlation resulted in calibrated and validated statistical models for versatile evaluation of unknown flour samples. The calibration data set was used to construct calibration models with use of the CSR and the PLS with the leave one-out, cross-validation techniques. The calibrated models were validated with a validation data set. The results obtained confirmed that application of statistical models based on MIR spectral data is a robust, accurate, precise, rapid, inexpensive, and convenient methodology for determination of flour characteristics, as well as for detection of content of selected flour ingredients. The obtained models' characteristics were as follows: R2 = 0.97, PRESS = 2.14; R2 = 0.96, PRESS = 0.69; R2 = 0.95, PRESS = 1.27; R2 = 0.94, PRESS = 0.76, for content of proteins, lipids, ash, and moisture level, respectively. Best results of CSR models were obtained for protein, ash, and crude fat (R2 = 0.86; 0.82; and 0.78, resp.). PMID:28243483
Parameter Identification and Uncertainty Analysis for Visual MODFLOW based Groundwater Flow Model in a Small River Basin, Eastern India

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jena, S.

2015-12-01

The overexploitation of groundwater resulted in abandoning many shallow tube wells in the river Basin in Eastern India. For the sustainability of groundwater resources, basin-scale modelling of groundwater flow is essential for the efficient planning and management of the water resources. The main intent of this study is to develope a 3-D groundwater flow model of the study basin using the Visual MODFLOW package and successfully calibrate and validate it using 17 years of observed data. The sensitivity analysis was carried out to quantify the susceptibility of aquifer system to the river bank seepage, recharge from rainfall and agriculture practices, horizontal and vertical hydraulic conductivities, and specific yield. To quantify the impact of parameter uncertainties, Sequential Uncertainty Fitting Algorithm (SUFI-2) and Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) techniques were implemented. Results from the two techniques were compared and the advantages and disadvantages were analysed. Nash-Sutcliffe coefficient (NSE) and coefficient of determination (R2) were adopted as two criteria during calibration and validation of the developed model. NSE and R2 values of groundwater flow model for calibration and validation periods were in acceptable range. Also, the MCMC technique was able to provide more reasonable results than SUFI-2. The calibrated and validated model will be useful to identify the aquifer properties, analyse the groundwater flow dynamics and the change in groundwater levels in future forecasts.
Creating, generating and comparing random network models with NetworkRandomizer.

PubMed

Tosadori, Gabriele; Bestvina, Ivan; Spoto, Fausto; Laudanna, Carlo; Scardoni, Giovanni

2016-01-01

Biological networks are becoming a fundamental tool for the investigation of high-throughput data in several fields of biology and biotechnology. With the increasing amount of information, network-based models are gaining more and more interest and new techniques are required in order to mine the information and to validate the results. To fill the validation gap we present an app, for the Cytoscape platform, which aims at creating randomised networks and randomising existing, real networks. Since there is a lack of tools that allow performing such operations, our app aims at enabling researchers to exploit different, well known random network models that could be used as a benchmark for validating real, biological datasets. We also propose a novel methodology for creating random weighted networks, i.e. the multiplication algorithm, starting from real, quantitative data. Finally, the app provides a statistical tool that compares real versus randomly computed attributes, in order to validate the numerical findings. In summary, our app aims at creating a standardised methodology for the validation of the results in the context of the Cytoscape platform.
Developing and Validating the Socio-Technical Model in Ontology Engineering

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Silalahi, Mesnan; Indra Sensuse, Dana; Giri Sucahyo, Yudho; Fadhilah Akmaliah, Izzah; Rahayu, Puji; Cahyaningsih, Elin

2018-03-01

This paper describes results from an attempt to develop a model in ontology engineering methodology and a way to validate the model. The approach to methodology in ontology engineering is from the point view of socio-technical system theory. Qualitative research synthesis is used to build the model using meta-ethnography. In order to ensure the objectivity of the measurement, inter-rater reliability method was applied using a multi-rater Fleiss Kappa. The results show the accordance of the research output with the diamond model in the socio-technical system theory by evidence of the interdependency of the four socio-technical variables namely people, technology, structure and task.
Towards a complete physically based forecast model for underwater noise related to impact pile driving.

PubMed

Fricke, Moritz B; Rolfes, Raimund

2015-03-01

An approach for the prediction of underwater noise caused by impact pile driving is described and validated based on in situ measurements. The model is divided into three sub-models. The first sub-model, based on the finite element method, is used to describe the vibration of the pile and the resulting acoustic radiation into the surrounding water and soil column. The mechanical excitation of the pile by the piling hammer is estimated by the second sub-model using an analytical approach which takes the large vertical dimension of the ram into account. The third sub-model is based on the split-step Padé solution of the parabolic equation and targets the long-range propagation up to 20 km. In order to presume realistic environmental properties for the validation, a geoacoustic model is derived from spatially averaged geological information about the investigation area. Although it can be concluded from the validation that the model and the underlying assumptions are appropriate, there are some deviations between modeled and measured results. Possible explanations for the observed errors are discussed.
MRI-based modeling for radiocarpal joint mechanics: validation criteria and results for four specimen-specific models.

PubMed

Fischer, Kenneth J; Johnson, Joshua E; Waller, Alexander J; McIff, Terence E; Toby, E Bruce; Bilgen, Mehmet

2011-10-01

The objective of this study was to validate the MRI-based joint contact modeling methodology in the radiocarpal joints by comparison of model results with invasive specimen-specific radiocarpal contact measurements from four cadaver experiments. We used a single validation criterion for multiple outcome measures to characterize the utility and overall validity of the modeling approach. For each experiment, a Pressurex film and a Tekscan sensor were sequentially placed into the radiocarpal joints during simulated grasp. Computer models were constructed based on MRI visualization of the cadaver specimens without load. Images were also acquired during the loaded configuration used with the direct experimental measurements. Geometric surface models of the radius, scaphoid and lunate (including cartilage) were constructed from the images acquired without the load. The carpal bone motions from the unloaded state to the loaded state were determined using a series of 3D image registrations. Cartilage thickness was assumed uniform at 1.0 mm with an effective compressive modulus of 4 MPa. Validation was based on experimental versus model contact area, contact force, average contact pressure and peak contact pressure for the radioscaphoid and radiolunate articulations. Contact area was also measured directly from images acquired under load and compared to the experimental and model data. Qualitatively, there was good correspondence between the MRI-based model data and experimental data, with consistent relative size, shape and location of radioscaphoid and radiolunate contact regions. Quantitative data from the model generally compared well with the experimental data for all specimens. Contact area from the MRI-based model was very similar to the contact area measured directly from the images. For all outcome measures except average and peak pressures, at least two specimen models met the validation criteria with respect to experimental measurements for both articulations. Only the model for one specimen met the validation criteria for average and peak pressure of both articulations; however the experimental measures for peak pressure also exhibited high variability. MRI-based modeling can reliably be used for evaluating the contact area and contact force with similar confidence as in currently available experimental techniques. Average contact pressure, and peak contact pressure were more variable from all measurement techniques, and these measures from MRI-based modeling should be used with some caution.
LIVVkit 2: An extensible land ice verification and validation toolkit for comparing observations and models?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kennedy, J. H.; Bennett, A. R.; Evans, K. J.; Fyke, J. G.; Vargo, L.; Price, S. F.; Hoffman, M. J.

2016-12-01

Accurate representation of ice sheets and glaciers are essential for robust predictions of arctic climate within Earth System models. Verification and Validation (V&V) is a set of techniques used to quantify the correctness and accuracy of a model, which builds developer/modeler confidence, and can be used to enhance the credibility of the model. Fundamentally, V&V is a continuous process because each model change requires a new round of V&V testing. The Community Ice Sheet Model (CISM) development community is actively developing LIVVkit, the Land Ice Verification and Validation toolkit, which is designed to easily integrate into an ice-sheet model's development workflow (on both personal and high-performance computers) to provide continuous V&V testing.LIVVkit is a robust and extensible python package for V&V, which has components for both software V&V (construction and use) and model V&V (mathematics and physics). The model Verification component is used, for example, to verify model results against community intercomparisons such as ISMIP-HOM. The model validation component is used, for example, to generate a series of diagnostic plots showing the differences between model results against observations for variables such as thickness, surface elevation, basal topography, surface velocity, surface mass balance, etc. Because many different ice-sheet models are under active development, new validation datasets are becoming available, and new methods of analysing these models are actively being researched, LIVVkit includes a framework to easily extend the model V&V analyses by ice-sheet modelers. This allows modelers and developers to develop evaluations of parameters, implement changes, and quickly see how those changes effect the ice-sheet model and earth system model (when coupled). Furthermore, LIVVkit outputs a portable hierarchical website allowing evaluations to be easily shared, published, and analysed throughout the arctic and Earth system communities.
Guidelines for Use of the Approximate Beta-Poisson Dose-Response Model.

PubMed

Xie, Gang; Roiko, Anne; Stratton, Helen; Lemckert, Charles; Dunn, Peter K; Mengersen, Kerrie

2017-07-01

For dose-response analysis in quantitative microbial risk assessment (QMRA), the exact beta-Poisson model is a two-parameter mechanistic dose-response model with parameters α>0 and β>0, which involves the Kummer confluent hypergeometric function. Evaluation of a hypergeometric function is a computational challenge. Denoting PI(d) as the probability of infection at a given mean dose d, the widely used dose-response model PI(d)=1-(1+dβ)-α is an approximate formula for the exact beta-Poisson model. Notwithstanding the required conditions α<β and β>1, issues related to the validity and approximation accuracy of this approximate formula have remained largely ignored in practice, partly because these conditions are too general to provide clear guidance. Consequently, this study proposes a probability measure Pr(0 < r < 1 | α̂, β̂) as a validity measure (r is a random variable that follows a gamma distribution; α̂ and β̂ are the maximum likelihood estimates of α and β in the approximate model); and the constraint conditions β̂>(22α̂)0.50 for 0.02<α̂<2 as a rule of thumb to ensure an accurate approximation (e.g., Pr(0 < r < 1 | α̂, β̂) >0.99) . This validity measure and rule of thumb were validated by application to all the completed beta-Poisson models (related to 85 data sets) from the QMRA community portal (QMRA Wiki). The results showed that the higher the probability Pr(0 < r < 1 | α̂, β̂), the better the approximation. The results further showed that, among the total 85 models examined, 68 models were identified as valid approximate model applications, which all had a near perfect match to the corresponding exact beta-Poisson model dose-response curve. © 2016 Society for Risk Analysis.
Stochastic Petri Net extension of a yeast cell cycle model.

PubMed

Mura, Ivan; Csikász-Nagy, Attila

2008-10-21

This paper presents the definition, solution and validation of a stochastic model of the budding yeast cell cycle, based on Stochastic Petri Nets (SPN). A specific family of SPNs is selected for building a stochastic version of a well-established deterministic model. We describe the procedure followed in defining the SPN model from the deterministic ODE model, a procedure that can be largely automated. The validation of the SPN model is conducted with respect to both the results provided by the deterministic one and the experimental results available from literature. The SPN model catches the behavior of the wild type budding yeast cells and a variety of mutants. We show that the stochastic model matches some characteristics of budding yeast cells that cannot be found with the deterministic model. The SPN model fine-tunes the simulation results, enriching the breadth and the quality of its outcome.

Risk prediction models of breast cancer: a systematic review of model performances.

PubMed

Anothaisintawee, Thunyarat; Teerawattananon, Yot; Wiratkapun, Chollathip; Kasamesup, Vijj; Thakkinstian, Ammarin

2012-05-01

The number of risk prediction models has been increasingly developed, for estimating about breast cancer in individual women. However, those model performances are questionable. We therefore have conducted a study with the aim to systematically review previous risk prediction models. The results from this review help to identify the most reliable model and indicate the strengths and weaknesses of each model for guiding future model development. We searched MEDLINE (PubMed) from 1949 and EMBASE (Ovid) from 1974 until October 2010. Observational studies which constructed models using regression methods were selected. Information about model development and performance were extracted. Twenty-five out of 453 studies were eligible. Of these, 18 developed prediction models and 7 validated existing prediction models. Up to 13 variables were included in the models and sample sizes for each study ranged from 550 to 2,404,636. Internal validation was performed in four models, while five models had external validation. Gail and Rosner and Colditz models were the significant models which were subsequently modified by other scholars. Calibration performance of most models was fair to good (expected/observe ratio: 0.87-1.12), but discriminatory accuracy was poor to fair both in internal validation (concordance statistics: 0.53-0.66) and in external validation (concordance statistics: 0.56-0.63). Most models yielded relatively poor discrimination in both internal and external validation. This poor discriminatory accuracy of existing models might be because of a lack of knowledge about risk factors, heterogeneous subtypes of breast cancer, and different distributions of risk factors across populations. In addition the concordance statistic itself is insensitive to measure the improvement of discrimination. Therefore, the new method such as net reclassification index should be considered to evaluate the improvement of the performance of a new develop model.
A New Approach of Juvenile Age Estimation using Measurements of the Ilium and Multivariate Adaptive Regression Splines (MARS) Models for Better Age Prediction.

PubMed

Corron, Louise; Marchal, François; Condemi, Silvana; Chaumoître, Kathia; Adalian, Pascal

2017-01-01

Juvenile age estimation methods used in forensic anthropology generally lack methodological consistency and/or statistical validity. Considering this, a standard approach using nonparametric Multivariate Adaptive Regression Splines (MARS) models were tested to predict age from iliac biometric variables of male and female juveniles from Marseilles, France, aged 0-12 years. Models using unidimensional (length and width) and bidimensional iliac data (module and surface) were constructed on a training sample of 176 individuals and validated on an independent test sample of 68 individuals. Results show that MARS prediction models using iliac width, module and area give overall better and statistically valid age estimates. These models integrate punctual nonlinearities of the relationship between age and osteometric variables. By constructing valid prediction intervals whose size increases with age, MARS models take into account the normal increase of individual variability. MARS models can qualify as a practical and standardized approach for juvenile age estimation. © 2016 American Academy of Forensic Sciences.
Noninvasive assessment of mitral inertness [correction of inertance]: clinical results with numerical model validation.

PubMed

Firstenberg, M S; Greenberg, N L; Smedira, N G; McCarthy, P M; Garcia, M J; Thomas, J D

2001-01-01

Inertial forces (Mdv/dt) are a significant component of transmitral flow, but cannot be measured with Doppler echo. We validated a method of estimating Mdv/dt. Ten patients had a dual sensor transmitral (TM) catheter placed during cardiac surgery. Doppler and 2D echo was performed while acquiring LA and LV pressures. Mdv/dt was determined from the Bernoulli equation using Doppler velocities and TM gradients. Results were compared with numerical modeling. TM gradients (range: 1.04-14.24 mmHg) consisted of 74.0 +/- 11.0% inertial forcers (range: 0.6-12.9 mmHg). Multivariate analysis predicted Mdv/dt = -4.171(S/D (RATIO)) + 0.063(LAvolume-max) + 5. Using this equation, a strong relationship was obtained for the clinical dataset (y=0.98x - 0.045, r=0.90) and the results of numerical modeling (y=0.96x - 0.16, r=0.84). TM gradients are mainly inertial and, as validated by modeling, can be estimated with echocardiography.
Noninvasive assessment of mitral inertness: clinical results with numerical model validation

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Firstenberg, M. S.; Greenberg, N. L.; Smedira, N. G.; McCarthy, P. M.; Garcia, M. J.; Thomas, J. D.

2001-01-01

Inertial forces (Mdv/dt) are a significant component of transmitral flow, but cannot be measured with Doppler echo. We validated a method of estimating Mdv/dt. Ten patients had a dual sensor transmitral (TM) catheter placed during cardiac surgery. Doppler and 2D echo was performed while acquiring LA and LV pressures. Mdv/dt was determined from the Bernoulli equation using Doppler velocities and TM gradients. Results were compared with numerical modeling. TM gradients (range: 1.04-14.24 mmHg) consisted of 74.0 +/- 11.0% inertial forcers (range: 0.6-12.9 mmHg). Multivariate analysis predicted Mdv/dt = -4.171(S/D (RATIO)) + 0.063(LAvolume-max) + 5. Using this equation, a strong relationship was obtained for the clinical dataset (y=0.98x - 0.045, r=0.90) and the results of numerical modeling (y=0.96x - 0.16, r=0.84). TM gradients are mainly inertial and, as validated by modeling, can be estimated with echocardiography.
Filament winding cylinders. II - Validation of the process model

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Calius, Emilio P.; Lee, Soo-Yong; Springer, George S.

1990-01-01

Analytical and experimental studies were performed to validate the model developed by Lee and Springer for simulating the manufacturing process of filament wound composite cylinders. First, results calculated by the Lee-Springer model were compared to results of the Calius-Springer thin cylinder model. Second, temperatures and strains calculated by the Lee-Springer model were compared to data. The data used in these comparisons were generated during the course of this investigation with cylinders made of Hercules IM-6G/HBRF-55 and Fiberite T-300/976 graphite-epoxy tows. Good agreement was found between the calculated and measured stresses and strains, indicating that the model is a useful representation of the winding and curing processes.
Prediction and validation of residual feed intake and dry matter intake in Danish lactating dairy cows using mid-infrared spectroscopy of milk.

PubMed

Shetty, N; Løvendahl, P; Lund, M S; Buitenhuis, A J

2017-01-01

The present study explored the effectiveness of Fourier transform mid-infrared (FT-IR) spectral profiles as a predictor for dry matter intake (DMI) and residual feed intake (RFI). The partial least squares regression method was used to develop the prediction models. The models were validated using different external test sets, one randomly leaving out 20% of the records (validation A), the second randomly leaving out 20% of cows (validation B), and a third (for DMI prediction models) randomly leaving out one cow (validation C). The data included 1,044 records from 140 cows; 97 were Danish Holstein and 43 Danish Jersey. Results showed better accuracies for validation A compared with other validation methods. Milk yield (MY) contributed largely to DMI prediction; MY explained 59% of the variation and the validated model error root mean square error of prediction (RMSEP) was 2.24kg. The model was improved by adding live weight (LW) as an additional predictor trait, where the accuracy R 2 increased from 0.59 to 0.72 and error RMSEP decreased from 2.24 to 1.83kg. When only the milk FT-IR spectral profile was used in DMI prediction, a lower prediction ability was obtained, with R 2 =0.30 and RMSEP=2.91kg. However, once the spectral information was added, along with MY and LW as predictors, model accuracy improved and R 2 increased to 0.81 and RMSEP decreased to 1.49kg. Prediction accuracies of RFI changed throughout lactation. The RFI prediction model for the early-lactation stage was better compared with across lactation or mid- and late-lactation stages, with R 2 =0.46 and RMSEP=1.70. The most important spectral wavenumbers that contributed to DMI and RFI prediction models included fat, protein, and lactose peaks. Comparable prediction results were obtained when using infrared-predicted fat, protein, and lactose instead of full spectra, indicating that FT-IR spectral data do not add significant new information to improve DMI and RFI prediction models. Therefore, in practice, if full FT-IR spectral data are not stored, it is possible to achieve similar DMI or RFI prediction results based on standard milk control data. For DMI, the milk fat region was responsible for the major variation in milk spectra; for RFI, the major variation in milk spectra was within the milk protein region. Copyright © 2017 American Dairy Science Association. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.
Mind the Noise When Identifying Computational Models of Cognition from Brain Activity.

PubMed

Kolossa, Antonio; Kopp, Bruno

2016-01-01

The aim of this study was to analyze how measurement error affects the validity of modeling studies in computational neuroscience. A synthetic validity test was created using simulated P300 event-related potentials as an example. The model space comprised four computational models of single-trial P300 amplitude fluctuations which differed in terms of complexity and dependency. The single-trial fluctuation of simulated P300 amplitudes was computed on the basis of one of the models, at various levels of measurement error and at various numbers of data points. Bayesian model selection was performed based on exceedance probabilities. At very low numbers of data points, the least complex model generally outperformed the data-generating model. Invalid model identification also occurred at low levels of data quality and under low numbers of data points if the winning model's predictors were closely correlated with the predictors from the data-generating model. Given sufficient data quality and numbers of data points, the data-generating model could be correctly identified, even against models which were very similar to the data-generating model. Thus, a number of variables affects the validity of computational modeling studies, and data quality and numbers of data points are among the main factors relevant to the issue. Further, the nature of the model space (i.e., model complexity, model dependency) should not be neglected. This study provided quantitative results which show the importance of ensuring the validity of computational modeling via adequately prepared studies. The accomplishment of synthetic validity tests is recommended for future applications. Beyond that, we propose to render the demonstration of sufficient validity via adequate simulations mandatory to computational modeling studies.
Critical-Inquiry-Based-Learning: Model of Learning to Promote Critical Thinking Ability of Pre-service Teachers

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Prayogi, S.; Yuanita, L.; Wasis

2018-01-01

This study aimed to develop Critical-Inquiry-Based-Learning (CIBL) learning model to promote critical thinking (CT) ability of preservice teachers. The CIBL learning model was developed by meeting the criteria of validity, practicality, and effectiveness. Validation of the model involves 4 expert validators through the mechanism of the focus group discussion (FGD). CIBL learning model declared valid to promote CT ability, with the validity level (Va) of 4.20 and reliability (r) of 90,1% (very reliable). The practicality of the model was evaluated when it was implemented that involving 17 of preservice teachers. The CIBL learning model had been declared practice, its measuring from learning feasibility (LF) with very good criteria (LF-score = 4.75). The effectiveness of the model was evaluated from the improvement CT ability after the implementation of the model. CT ability were evaluated using the scoring technique adapted from Ennis-Weir Critical Thinking Essay Test. The average score of CT ability on pretest is - 1.53 (uncritical criteria), whereas on posttest is 8.76 (critical criteria), with N-gain score of 0.76 (high criteria). Based on the results of this study, it can be concluded that developed CIBL learning model is feasible to promote CT ability of preservice teachers.
A ferrofluid based energy harvester: Computational modeling, analysis, and experimental validation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liu, Qi; Alazemi, Saad F.; Daqaq, Mohammed F.; Li, Gang

2018-03-01

A computational model is described and implemented in this work to analyze the performance of a ferrofluid based electromagnetic energy harvester. The energy harvester converts ambient vibratory energy into an electromotive force through a sloshing motion of a ferrofluid. The computational model solves the coupled Maxwell's equations and Navier-Stokes equations for the dynamic behavior of the magnetic field and fluid motion. The model is validated against experimental results for eight different configurations of the system. The validated model is then employed to study the underlying mechanisms that determine the electromotive force of the energy harvester. Furthermore, computational analysis is performed to test the effect of several modeling aspects, such as three-dimensional effect, surface tension, and type of the ferrofluid-magnetic field coupling on the accuracy of the model prediction.
Graphical approach to assess the soil fertility evaluation model validity for rice (case study: southern area of Merapi Mountain, Indonesia)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Julianto, E. A.; Suntoro, W. A.; Dewi, W. S.; Partoyo

2018-03-01

Climate change has been reported to exacerbate land resources degradation including soil fertility decline. The appropriate validity use on soil fertility evaluation could reduce the risk of climate change effect on plant cultivation. This study aims to assess the validity of a Soil Fertility Evaluation Model using a graphical approach. The models evaluated were the Indonesian Soil Research Center (PPT) version model, the FAO Unesco version model, and the Kyuma version model. Each model was then correlated with rice production (dry grain weight/GKP). The goodness of fit of each model can be tested to evaluate the quality and validity of a model, as well as the regression coefficient (R2). This research used the Eviews 9 programme by a graphical approach. The results obtained three curves, namely actual, fitted, and residual curves. If the actual and fitted curves are widely apart or irregular, this means that the quality of the model is not good, or there are many other factors that are still not included in the model (large residual) and conversely. Indeed, if the actual and fitted curves show exactly the same shape, it means that all factors have already been included in the model. Modification of the standard soil fertility evaluation models can improve the quality and validity of a model.
Evaluating model structure adequacy: The case of the Maggia Valley groundwater system, southern Switzerland

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hill, Mary C.; L. Foglia,; S. W. Mehl,; P. Burlando,

2013-01-01

Model adequacy is evaluated with alternative models rated using model selection criteria (AICc, BIC, and KIC) and three other statistics. Model selection criteria are tested with cross-validation experiments and insights for using alternative models to evaluate model structural adequacy are provided. The study is conducted using the computer codes UCODE_2005 and MMA (MultiModel Analysis). One recharge alternative is simulated using the TOPKAPI hydrological model. The predictions evaluated include eight heads and three flows located where ecological consequences and model precision are of concern. Cross-validation is used to obtain measures of prediction accuracy. Sixty-four models were designed deterministically and differ in representation of river, recharge, bedrock topography, and hydraulic conductivity. Results include: (1) What may seem like inconsequential choices in model construction may be important to predictions. Analysis of predictions from alternative models is advised. (2) None of the model selection criteria consistently identified models with more accurate predictions. This is a disturbing result that suggests to reconsider the utility of model selection criteria, and/or the cross-validation measures used in this work to measure model accuracy. (3) KIC displayed poor performance for the present regression problems; theoretical considerations suggest that difficulties are associated with wide variations in the sensitivity term of KIC resulting from the models being nonlinear and the problems being ill-posed due to parameter correlations and insensitivity. The other criteria performed somewhat better, and similarly to each other. (4) Quantities with high leverage are more difficult to predict. The results are expected to be generally applicable to models of environmental systems.
FEMFLOW3D; a finite-element program for the simulation of three-dimensional aquifers; version 1.0

USGS Publications Warehouse

Durbin, Timothy J.; Bond, Linda D.

1998-01-01

This document also includes model validation, source code, and example input and output files. Model validation was performed using four test problems. For each test problem, the results of a model simulation with FEMFLOW3D were compared with either an analytic solution or the results of an independent numerical approach. The source code, written in the ANSI x3.9-1978 FORTRAN standard, and the complete input and output of an example problem are listed in the appendixes.
Development and Validation of a Spanish Version of the Grit-S Scale

PubMed Central

Arco-Tirado, Jose L.; Fernández-Martín, Francisco D.; Hoyle, Rick H.

2018-01-01

This paper describes the development and initial validation of a Spanish version of the Short Grit (Grit-S) Scale. The Grit-S Scale was adapted and translated into Spanish using the Translation, Review, Adjudication, Pre-testing, and Documentation model and responses to a preliminary set of items from a large sample of university students (N = 1,129). The resultant measure was validated using data from a large stratified random sample of young adults (N = 1,826). Initial validation involved evaluating the internal consistency of the adapted scale and its subscales and comparing the factor structure of the adapted version to that of the original scale. The results were comparable to results from similar analyses of the English version of the scale. Although the internal consistency of the subscales was low, the internal consistency of the full scale was well-within the acceptable range. A two-factor model offered an acceptable account of the data; however, when a single correlated error involving two highly similar items was included, a single factor model fit the data very well. The results support the use of overall scores from the Spanish Grit-S Scale in future research. PMID:29467705
Innovative learning model for improving students’ argumentation skill and concept understanding on science

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nafsiati Astuti, Rini

2018-04-01

Argumentation skill is the ability to compose and maintain arguments consisting of claims, supports for evidence, and strengthened-reasons. Argumentation is an important skill student needs to face the challenges of globalization in the 21st century. It is not an ability that can be developed by itself along with the physical development of human, but it must be developed under nerve like process, giving stimulus so as to require a person to be able to argue. Therefore, teachers should develop students’ skill of arguing in science learning in the classroom. The purpose of this study is to obtain an innovative learning model that are valid in terms of content and construct in improving the skills of argumentation and concept understanding of junior high school students. The assessment of content validity and construct validity was done through Focus Group Discussion (FGD), using the content and construct validation sheet, book model, learning video, and a set of learning aids for one meeting. Assessment results from 3 (three) experts showed that the learning model developed in the category was valid. The validity itself shows that the developed learning model has met the content requirement, the student needs, state of the art, strong theoretical and empirical foundation and construct validity, which has a connection of syntax stages and components of learning model so that it can be applied in the classroom activities
A Multilevel Bifactor Approach to Construct Validation of Mixed-Format Scales

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Wang, Yan; Kim, Eun Sook; Dedrick, Robert F.; Ferron, John M.; Tan, Tony

2018-01-01

Wording effects associated with positively and negatively worded items have been found in many scales. Such effects may threaten construct validity and introduce systematic bias in the interpretation of results. A variety of models have been applied to address wording effects, such as the correlated uniqueness model and the correlated traits and…
Validation of Short-Term Noise Assessment Procedures: FY16 Summary of Procedures, Progress, and Preliminary Results

DTIC Science & Technology

Validation project. This report describes the procedure used to generate the noise models output dataset , and then it compares that dataset to the...benchmark, the Engineer Research and Development Centers Long-Range Sound Propagation dataset . It was found that the models consistently underpredict the
Discovering new PI3Kα inhibitors with a strategy of combining ligand-based and structure-based virtual screening

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yu, Miao; Gu, Qiong; Xu, Jun

2018-02-01

PI3Kα is a promising drug target for cancer chemotherapy. In this paper, we report a strategy of combing ligand-based and structure-based virtual screening to identify new PI3Kα inhibitors. First, naïve Bayesian (NB) learning models and a 3D-QSAR pharmacophore model were built based upon known PI3Kα inhibitors. Then, the SPECS library was screened by the best NB model. This resulted in virtual hits, which were validated by matching the structures against the pharmacophore models. The pharmacophore matched hits were then docked into PI3Kα crystal structures to form ligand-receptor complexes, which are further validated by the Glide-XP program to result in structural validated hits. The structural validated hits were examined by PI3Kα inhibitory assay. With this screening protocol, ten PI3Kα inhibitors with new scaffolds were discovered with IC50 values ranging 0.44-31.25 μM. The binding affinities for the most active compounds 33 and 74 were estimated through molecular dynamics simulations and MM-PBSA analyses.
Uncertainty estimates of purity measurements based on current information: toward a "live validation" of purity methods.

PubMed

Apostol, Izydor; Kelner, Drew; Jiang, Xinzhao Grace; Huang, Gang; Wypych, Jette; Zhang, Xin; Gastwirt, Jessica; Chen, Kenneth; Fodor, Szilan; Hapuarachchi, Suminda; Meriage, Dave; Ye, Frank; Poppe, Leszek; Szpankowski, Wojciech

2012-12-01

To predict precision and other performance characteristics of chromatographic purity methods, which represent the most widely used form of analysis in the biopharmaceutical industry. We have conducted a comprehensive survey of purity methods, and show that all performance characteristics fall within narrow measurement ranges. This observation was used to develop a model called Uncertainty Based on Current Information (UBCI), which expresses these performance characteristics as a function of the signal and noise levels, hardware specifications, and software settings. We applied the UCBI model to assess the uncertainty of purity measurements, and compared the results to those from conventional qualification. We demonstrated that the UBCI model is suitable to dynamically assess method performance characteristics, based on information extracted from individual chromatograms. The model provides an opportunity for streamlining qualification and validation studies by implementing a "live validation" of test results utilizing UBCI as a concurrent assessment of measurement uncertainty. Therefore, UBCI can potentially mitigate the challenges associated with laborious conventional method validation and facilitates the introduction of more advanced analytical technologies during the method lifecycle.
Application of Multivariable Analysis and FTIR-ATR Spectroscopy to the Prediction of Properties in Campeche Honey

PubMed Central

Pat, Lucio; Ali, Bassam; Guerrero, Armando; Córdova, Atl V.; Garduza, José P.

2016-01-01

Attenuated total reflectance-Fourier transform infrared spectrometry and chemometrics model was used for determination of physicochemical properties (pH, redox potential, free acidity, electrical conductivity, moisture, total soluble solids (TSS), ash, and HMF) in honey samples. The reference values of 189 honey samples of different botanical origin were determined using Association Official Analytical Chemists, (AOAC), 1990; Codex Alimentarius, 2001, International Honey Commission, 2002, methods. Multivariate calibration models were built using partial least squares (PLS) for the measurands studied. The developed models were validated using cross-validation and external validation; several statistical parameters were obtained to determine the robustness of the calibration models: (PCs) optimum number of components principal, (SECV) standard error of cross-validation, (R 2 cal) coefficient of determination of cross-validation, (SEP) standard error of validation, and (R 2 val) coefficient of determination for external validation and coefficient of variation (CV). The prediction accuracy for pH, redox potential, electrical conductivity, moisture, TSS, and ash was good, while for free acidity and HMF it was poor. The results demonstrate that attenuated total reflectance-Fourier transform infrared spectrometry is a valuable, rapid, and nondestructive tool for the quantification of physicochemical properties of honey. PMID:28070445
A Bayesian framework for adaptive selection, calibration, and validation of coarse-grained models of atomistic systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Farrell, Kathryn; Oden, J. Tinsley; Faghihi, Danial

2015-08-01

A general adaptive modeling algorithm for selection and validation of coarse-grained models of atomistic systems is presented. A Bayesian framework is developed to address uncertainties in parameters, data, and model selection. Algorithms for computing output sensitivities to parameter variances, model evidence and posterior model plausibilities for given data, and for computing what are referred to as Occam Categories in reference to a rough measure of model simplicity, make up components of the overall approach. Computational results are provided for representative applications.

Hydrological Modelling using HEC-HMS for Flood Risk Assessment of Segamat Town, Malaysia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Romali, N. S.; Yusop, Z.; Ismail, A. Z.

2018-03-01

This paper presents an assessment of the applicability of using Hydrologic Modelling System developed by the Hydrologic Engineering Center (HEC-HMS) for hydrological modelling of Segamat River. The objective of the model application is to assist in the assessment of flood risk by providing the peak flows of 2011 Segamat flood for the generation of flood mapping of Segamat town. The capability of the model was evaluated by comparing the historical observed data with the simulation results of the selected flood events. The model calibration and validation efficiency was verified using Nash-Sutcliffe model efficiency coefficient. The results demonstrate the interest to implement the hydrological model for assessing flood risk where the simulated peak flow result is in agreement with historical observed data. The model efficiency of the calibrated and validated exercises is 0.90 and 0.76 respectively, which is acceptable.
Temporal and external validation of a prediction model for adverse outcomes among inpatients with diabetes.

PubMed

Adderley, N J; Mallett, S; Marshall, T; Ghosh, S; Rayman, G; Bellary, S; Coleman, J; Akiboye, F; Toulis, K A; Nirantharakumar, K

2018-06-01

To temporally and externally validate our previously developed prediction model, which used data from University Hospitals Birmingham to identify inpatients with diabetes at high risk of adverse outcome (mortality or excessive length of stay), in order to demonstrate its applicability to other hospital populations within the UK. Temporal validation was performed using data from University Hospitals Birmingham and external validation was performed using data from both the Heart of England NHS Foundation Trust and Ipswich Hospital. All adult inpatients with diabetes were included. Variables included in the model were age, gender, ethnicity, admission type, intensive therapy unit admission, insulin therapy, albumin, sodium, potassium, haemoglobin, C-reactive protein, estimated GFR and neutrophil count. Adverse outcome was defined as excessive length of stay or death. Model discrimination in the temporal and external validation datasets was good. In temporal validation using data from University Hospitals Birmingham, the area under the curve was 0.797 (95% CI 0.785-0.810), sensitivity was 70% (95% CI 67-72) and specificity was 75% (95% CI 74-76). In external validation using data from Heart of England NHS Foundation Trust, the area under the curve was 0.758 (95% CI 0.747-0.768), sensitivity was 73% (95% CI 71-74) and specificity was 66% (95% CI 65-67). In external validation using data from Ipswich, the area under the curve was 0.736 (95% CI 0.711-0.761), sensitivity was 63% (95% CI 59-68) and specificity was 69% (95% CI 67-72). These results were similar to those for the internally validated model derived from University Hospitals Birmingham. The prediction model to identify patients with diabetes at high risk of developing an adverse event while in hospital performed well in temporal and external validation. The externally validated prediction model is a novel tool that can be used to improve care pathways for inpatients with diabetes. Further research to assess clinical utility is needed. © 2018 Diabetes UK.
IMPLEMENTATION AND VALIDATION OF A FULLY IMPLICIT ACCUMULATOR MODEL IN RELAP-7

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Zhao, Haihua; Zou, Ling; Zhang, Hongbin

2016-01-01

This paper presents the implementation and validation of an accumulator model in RELAP-7 under the framework of preconditioned Jacobian free Newton Krylov (JFNK) method, based on the similar model used in RELAP5. RELAP-7 is a new nuclear reactor system safety analysis code being developed at the Idaho National Laboratory (INL). RELAP-7 is a fully implicit system code. The JFNK and preconditioning methods used in RELAP-7 is briefly discussed. The slightly modified accumulator model is summarized for completeness. The implemented model was validated with LOFT L3-1 test and benchmarked with RELAP5 results. RELAP-7 and RELAP5 had almost identical results for themore » accumulator gas pressure and water level, although there were some minor difference in other parameters such as accumulator gas temperature and tank wall temperature. One advantage of the JFNK method is its easiness to maintain and modify models due to fully separation of numerical methods from physical models. It would be straightforward to extend the current RELAP-7 accumulator model to simulate the advanced accumulator design.« less
Modeling Piezoelectric Stack Actuators for Control of Micromanipulation

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Goldfarb, Michael; Celanovic, Nikola

1997-01-01

A nonlinear lumped-parameter model of a piezoelectric stack actuator has been developed to describe actuator behavior for purposes of control system analysis and design, and, in particular, for microrobotic applications requiring accurate position and/or force control. In formulating this model, the authors propose a generalized Maxwell resistive capacitor as a lumped-parameter causal representation of rate-independent hysteresis. Model formulation is validated by comparing results of numerical simulations to experimental data. Validation is followed by a discussion of model implications for purposes of actuator control.
Development of the evaluation instrument use CIPP on the implementation of project assessment topic optik

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Asfaroh, Jati Aurum; Rosana, Dadan; Supahar

2017-08-01

This research aims to develop an evaluation instrument models CIPP valid and reliable as well as determine the feasibility and practicality of an evaluation instrument models CIPP. An evaluation instrument models CIPP to evaluate the implementation of the project assessment topic optik to measure problem-solving skills of junior high school class VIII in the Yogyakarta region. This research is a model of development that uses 4-D. Subject of product trials are students in class VIII SMP N 1 Galur and SMP N 1 Sleman. Data collection techniques in this research using non-test techniques include interviews, questionnaires and observations. Validity in this research was analyzed using V'Aikens. Reliability analyzed using ICC. This research uses 7 raters are derived from two lecturers expert (expert judgment), two practitioners (science teacher) and three colleagues. The results of this research is the evaluation's instrument model of CIPP is used to evaluate the implementation of the implementation of the project assessment instruments. The validity result of evaluation instrument have V'Aikens values between 0.86 to 1, which means a valid and 0.836 reliability values into categories so well that it has been worth used as an evaluation instrument.
Forward ultrasonic model validation using wavefield imaging methods

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Blackshire, James L.

2018-04-01

The validation of forward ultrasonic wave propagation models in a complex titanium polycrystalline material system is accomplished using wavefield imaging methods. An innovative measurement approach is described that permits the visualization and quantitative evaluation of bulk elastic wave propagation and scattering behaviors in the titanium material for a typical focused immersion ultrasound measurement process. Results are provided for the determination and direct comparison of the ultrasonic beam's focal properties, mode-converted shear wave position and angle, and scattering and reflection from millimeter-sized microtexture regions (MTRs) within the titanium material. The approach and results are important with respect to understanding the root-cause backscatter signal responses generated in aerospace engine materials, where model-assisted methods are being used to understand the probabilistic nature of the backscatter signal content. Wavefield imaging methods are shown to be an effective means for corroborating and validating important forward model predictions in a direct manner using time- and spatially-resolved displacement field amplitude measurements.
Correlation Results for a Mass Loaded Vehicle Panel Test Article Finite Element Models and Modal Survey Tests

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Maasha, Rumaasha; Towner, Robert L.

2012-01-01

High-fidelity Finite Element Models (FEMs) were developed to support a recent test program at Marshall Space Flight Center (MSFC). The FEMs correspond to test articles used for a series of acoustic tests. Modal survey tests were used to validate the FEMs for five acoustic tests (a bare panel and four different mass-loaded panel configurations). An additional modal survey test was performed on the empty test fixture (orthogrid panel mounting fixture, between the reverb and anechoic chambers). Modal survey tests were used to test-validate the dynamic characteristics of FEMs used for acoustic test excitation. Modal survey testing and subsequent model correlation has validated the natural frequencies and mode shapes of the FEMs. The modal survey test results provide a basis for the analysis models used for acoustic loading response test and analysis comparisons
Investigation of the Thermomechanical Response of Shape Memory Alloy Hybrid Composite Beams

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Davis, Brian A.

2005-01-01

Previous work at NASA Langley Research Center (LaRC) involved fabrication and testing of composite beams with embedded, pre-strained shape memory alloy (SMA) ribbons. That study also provided comparison of experimental results with numerical predictions from a research code making use of a new thermoelastic model for shape memory alloy hybrid composite (SMAHC) structures. The previous work showed qualitative validation of the numerical model. However, deficiencies in the experimental-numerical correlation were noted and hypotheses for the discrepancies were given for further investigation. The goal of this work is to refine the experimental measurement and numerical modeling approaches in order to better understand the discrepancies, improve the correlation between prediction and measurement, and provide rigorous quantitative validation of the numerical model. Thermal buckling, post-buckling, and random responses to thermal and inertial (base acceleration) loads are studied. Excellent agreement is achieved between the predicted and measured results, thereby quantitatively validating the numerical tool.
Benchmarking on Tsunami Currents with ComMIT

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sharghi vand, N.; Kanoglu, U.

2015-12-01

There were no standards for the validation and verification of tsunami numerical models before 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami. Even, number of numerical models has been used for inundation mapping effort, evaluation of critical structures, etc. without validation and verification. After 2004, NOAA Center for Tsunami Research (NCTR) established standards for the validation and verification of tsunami numerical models (Synolakis et al. 2008 Pure Appl. Geophys. 165, 2197-2228), which will be used evaluation of critical structures such as nuclear power plants against tsunami attack. NCTR presented analytical, experimental and field benchmark problems aimed to estimate maximum runup and accepted widely by the community. Recently, benchmark problems were suggested by the US National Tsunami Hazard Mitigation Program Mapping & Modeling Benchmarking Workshop: Tsunami Currents on February 9-10, 2015 at Portland, Oregon, USA (http://nws.weather.gov/nthmp/index.html). These benchmark problems concentrated toward validation and verification of tsunami numerical models on tsunami currents. Three of the benchmark problems were: current measurement of the Japan 2011 tsunami in Hilo Harbor, Hawaii, USA and in Tauranga Harbor, New Zealand, and single long-period wave propagating onto a small-scale experimental model of the town of Seaside, Oregon, USA. These benchmark problems were implemented in the Community Modeling Interface for Tsunamis (ComMIT) (Titov et al. 2011 Pure Appl. Geophys. 168, 2121-2131), which is a user-friendly interface to the validated and verified Method of Splitting Tsunami (MOST) (Titov and Synolakis 1995 J. Waterw. Port Coastal Ocean Eng. 121, 308-316) model and is developed by NCTR. The modeling results are compared with the required benchmark data, providing good agreements and results are discussed. Acknowledgment: The research leading to these results has received funding from the European Union's Seventh Framework Programme (FP7/2007-2013) under grant agreement no 603839 (Project ASTARTE - Assessment, Strategy and Risk Reduction for Tsunamis in Europe)
Möglichkeiten und Grenzen der Validierung flächenhaft modellierter Nitrateinträge ins Grundwasser mit der N2/Ar-Methode

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Eschenbach, Wolfram; Budziak, Dörte; Elbracht, Jörg; Höper, Heinrich; Krienen, Lisa; Kunkel, Ralf; Meyer, Knut; Well, Reinhard; Wendland, Frank

2018-06-01

Valid models for estimating nitrate emissions from agriculture to groundwater are an indispensable forecasting tool. A major challenge for model validation is the spatial and temporal inconsistency between data from groundwater monitoring points and modelled nitrate inputs into groundwater, and the fact that many existing groundwater monitoring wells cannot be used for validation. With the help of the N2/Ar-method, groundwater monitoring wells in areas with reduced groundwater can now be used for model validation. For this purpose, 484 groundwater monitoring wells were sampled in Lower Saxony. For the first time, modelled potential nitrate concentrations in groundwater recharge (from the DENUZ model) were compared with nitrate input concentrations, which were calculated using the N2/Ar method. The results show a good agreement between both methods for glacial outwash plains and moraine deposits. Although the nitrate degradation processes in groundwater and soil merge seamlessly in areas with a shallow groundwater table, the DENUZ model only calculates denitrification in the soil zone. The DENUZ model thus predicts 27% higher nitrate emissions into the groundwater than the N2/Ar method in such areas. To account for high temporal and spatial variability of nitrate emissions into groundwater, a large number of groundwater monitoring points must be investigated for model validation.
How to test validity in orthodontic research: a mixed dentition analysis example.

PubMed

Donatelli, Richard E; Lee, Shin-Jae

2015-02-01

The data used to test the validity of a prediction method should be different from the data used to generate the prediction model. In this study, we explored whether an independent data set is mandatory for testing the validity of a new prediction method and how validity can be tested without independent new data. Several validation methods were compared in an example using the data from a mixed dentition analysis with a regression model. The validation errors of real mixed dentition analysis data and simulation data were analyzed for increasingly large data sets. The validation results of both the real and the simulation studies demonstrated that the leave-1-out cross-validation method had the smallest errors. The largest errors occurred in the traditional simple validation method. The differences between the validation methods diminished as the sample size increased. The leave-1-out cross-validation method seems to be an optimal validation method for improving the prediction accuracy in a data set with limited sample sizes. Copyright © 2015 American Association of Orthodontists. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.
Development and validation of the short-form Adolescent Health Promotion Scale.

PubMed

Chen, Mei-Yen; Lai, Li-Ju; Chen, Hsiu-Chih; Gaete, Jorge

2014-10-26

Health-promoting lifestyle choices of adolescents are closely related to current and subsequent health status. However, parsimonious yet reliable and valid screening tools are scarce. The original 40-item adolescent health promotion (AHP) scale was developed by our research team and has been applied to measure adolescent health-promoting behaviors worldwide. The aim of our study was to examine the psychometric properties of a newly developed short-form version of the AHP (AHP-SF) including tests of its reliability and validity. The study was conducted in nine middle and high schools in southern Taiwan. Participants were 814 adolescents randomly divided into two subgroups with equal size and homogeneity of baseline characteristics. The first subsample (calibration sample) was used to modify and shorten the factorial model while the second subsample (validation sample) was utilized to validate the result obtained from the first one. The psychometric testing of the AHP-SF included internal reliability of McDonald's omega and Cronbach's alpha, convergent validity, discriminant validity, and construct validity with confirmatory factor analysis (CFA). The results of the CFA supported a six-factor model and 21 items were retained in the AHP-SF with acceptable model fit. For the discriminant validity test, results indicated that adolescents with lower AHP-SF scores were more likely to be overweight or obese, skip breakfast, and spend more time watching TV and playing computer games. The AHP-SF also showed excellent internal consistency with a McDonald's omega of 0.904 (Cronbach's alpha 0.905) in the calibration group. The current findings suggest that the AHP-SF is a valid and reliable instrument for the evaluation of adolescent health-promoting behaviors. Primary health care providers and clinicians can use the AHP-SF to assess these behaviors and evaluate the outcome of health promotion programs in the adolescent population.
Assessing Discriminative Performance at External Validation of Clinical Prediction Models.

PubMed

Nieboer, Daan; van der Ploeg, Tjeerd; Steyerberg, Ewout W

2016-01-01

External validation studies are essential to study the generalizability of prediction models. Recently a permutation test, focusing on discrimination as quantified by the c-statistic, was proposed to judge whether a prediction model is transportable to a new setting. We aimed to evaluate this test and compare it to previously proposed procedures to judge any changes in c-statistic from development to external validation setting. We compared the use of the permutation test to the use of benchmark values of the c-statistic following from a previously proposed framework to judge transportability of a prediction model. In a simulation study we developed a prediction model with logistic regression on a development set and validated them in the validation set. We concentrated on two scenarios: 1) the case-mix was more heterogeneous and predictor effects were weaker in the validation set compared to the development set, and 2) the case-mix was less heterogeneous in the validation set and predictor effects were identical in the validation and development set. Furthermore we illustrated the methods in a case study using 15 datasets of patients suffering from traumatic brain injury. The permutation test indicated that the validation and development set were homogenous in scenario 1 (in almost all simulated samples) and heterogeneous in scenario 2 (in 17%-39% of simulated samples). Previously proposed benchmark values of the c-statistic and the standard deviation of the linear predictors correctly pointed at the more heterogeneous case-mix in scenario 1 and the less heterogeneous case-mix in scenario 2. The recently proposed permutation test may provide misleading results when externally validating prediction models in the presence of case-mix differences between the development and validation population. To correctly interpret the c-statistic found at external validation it is crucial to disentangle case-mix differences from incorrect regression coefficients.
Ada Compiler Validation Summary Report. Certificate Number: 900726W1. 11017, Verdix Corporation VADS IBM RISC System/6000, AIX 3.1, VAda-110-7171, Version 6.0 IBM RISC System/6000 Model 530 = IBM RISC System/6000 Model 530

DTIC Science & Technology

1991-01-22

Customer Agreement Number: 90-05-29- VRX See Section 3.1 for any additional information about the testing environment. As a result of this validation...22 January 1991 90-05-29- VRX Ada COMPILER VALIDATION SUMMARY REPORT: Certificate Number: 900726W1.11017 Verdix Corporation VADS IBM RISC System/6000
Studies on mineral dust using airborne lidar, ground-based remote sensing, and in situ instrumentation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Marenco, Franco; Ryder, Claire; Estellés, Victor; Segura, Sara; Amiridis, Vassilis; Proestakis, Emmanouil; Marinou, Eleni; Tsekeri, Alexandra; Smith, Helen; Ulanowski, Zbigniew; O'Sullivan, Debbie; Brooke, Jennifer; Pradhan, Yaswant; Buxmann, Joelle

2018-04-01

In August 2015, the AER-D campaign made use of the FAAM research aircraft based in Cape Verde, and targeted mineral dust. First results will be shown here. The campaign had multiple objectives: (1) lidar dust mapping for the validation of satellite and model products; (2) validation of sunphotometer remote sensing with airborne measurements; (3) coordinated measurements with the CATS lidar on the ISS; (4) radiative closure studies; and (5) the validation of a new model of dustsonde.
Simulation models in population breast cancer screening: A systematic review.

PubMed

Koleva-Kolarova, Rositsa G; Zhan, Zhuozhao; Greuter, Marcel J W; Feenstra, Talitha L; De Bock, Geertruida H

2015-08-01

The aim of this review was to critically evaluate published simulation models for breast cancer screening of the general population and provide a direction for future modeling. A systematic literature search was performed to identify simulation models with more than one application. A framework for qualitative assessment which incorporated model type; input parameters; modeling approach, transparency of input data sources/assumptions, sensitivity analyses and risk of bias; validation, and outcomes was developed. Predicted mortality reduction (MR) and cost-effectiveness (CE) were compared to estimates from meta-analyses of randomized control trials (RCTs) and acceptability thresholds. Seven original simulation models were distinguished, all sharing common input parameters. The modeling approach was based on tumor progression (except one model) with internal and cross validation of the resulting models, but without any external validation. Differences in lead times for invasive or non-invasive tumors, and the option for cancers not to progress were not explicitly modeled. The models tended to overestimate the MR (11-24%) due to screening as compared to optimal RCTs 10% (95% CI - 2-21%) MR. Only recently, potential harms due to regular breast cancer screening were reported. Most scenarios resulted in acceptable cost-effectiveness estimates given current thresholds. The selected models have been repeatedly applied in various settings to inform decision making and the critical analysis revealed high risk of bias in their outcomes. Given the importance of the models, there is a need for externally validated models which use systematical evidence for input data to allow for more critical evaluation of breast cancer screening. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
Calibration and Validation of the Checkpoint Model to the Air Force Electronic Systems Center Software Database

DTIC Science & Technology

1997-09-01

Illinois Institute of Technology Research Institute (IITRI) calibrated seven parametric models including SPQR /20, the forerunner of CHECKPOINT. The...a semicolon); thus, SPQR /20 was calibrated using SLOC sizing data (IITRI, 1989: 3-4). The results showed only slight overall improvements in accuracy...even when validating the calibrated models with the same data sets. The IITRI study demonstrated SPQR /20 to be one of two models that were most
Evaluation of a Computational Model of Situational Awareness

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Burdick, Mark D.; Shively, R. Jay; Rutkewski, Michael (Technical Monitor)

2000-01-01

Although the use of the psychological construct of situational awareness (SA) assists researchers in creating a flight environment that is safer and more predictable, its true potential remains untapped until a valid means of predicting SA a priori becomes available. Previous work proposed a computational model of SA (CSA) that sought to Fill that void. The current line of research is aimed at validating that model. The results show that the model accurately predicted SA in a piloted simulation.
Validation Testing of a Peridynamic Impact Damage Model Using NASA's Micro-Particle Gun

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Baber, Forrest E.; Zelinski, Brian J.; Guven, Ibrahim; Gray, Perry

2017-01-01

Through a collaborative effort between the Virginia Commonwealth University and Raytheon, a peridynamic model for sand impact damage has been developed1-3. Model development has focused on simulating impacts of sand particles on ZnS traveling at velocities consistent with aircraft take-off and landing speeds. The model reproduces common features of impact damage including pit and radial cracks, and, under some conditions, lateral cracks. This study focuses on a preliminary validation exercise in which simulation results from the peridynamic model are compared to a limited experimental data set generated by NASA's recently developed micro-particle gun (MPG). The MPG facility measures the dimensions and incoming and rebound velocities of the impact particles. It also links each particle to a specific impact site and its associated damage. In this validation exercise parameters of the peridynamic model are adjusted to fit the experimentally observed pit diameter, average length of radial cracks and rebound velocities for 4 impacts of 300 µm glass beads on ZnS. Results indicate that a reasonable fit of these impact characteristics can be obtained by suitable adjustment of the peridynamic input parameters, demonstrating that the MPG can be used effectively as a validation tool for impact modeling and that the peridynamic sand impact model described herein possesses not only a qualitative but also a quantitative ability to simulate sand impact events.
Development of Decision Support Formulas for the Prediction of Bladder Outlet Obstruction and Prostatic Surgery in Patients With Lower Urinary Tract Symptom/Benign Prostatic Hyperplasia: Part II, External Validation and Usability Testing of a Smartphone App.

PubMed

Choo, Min Soo; Jeong, Seong Jin; Cho, Sung Yong; Yoo, Changwon; Jeong, Chang Wook; Ku, Ja Hyeon; Oh, Seung-June

2017-04-01

We aimed to externally validate the prediction model we developed for having bladder outlet obstruction (BOO) and requiring prostatic surgery using 2 independent data sets from tertiary referral centers, and also aimed to validate a mobile app for using this model through usability testing. Formulas and nomograms predicting whether a subject has BOO and needs prostatic surgery were validated with an external validation cohort from Seoul National University Bundang Hospital and Seoul Metropolitan Government-Seoul National University Boramae Medical Center between January 2004 and April 2015. A smartphone-based app was developed, and 8 young urologists were enrolled for usability testing to identify any human factor issues of the app. A total of 642 patients were included in the external validation cohort. No significant differences were found in the baseline characteristics of major parameters between the original (n=1,179) and the external validation cohort, except for the maximal flow rate. Predictions of requiring prostatic surgery in the validation cohort showed a sensitivity of 80.6%, a specificity of 73.2%, a positive predictive value of 49.7%, and a negative predictive value of 92.0%, and area under receiver operating curve of 0.84. The calibration plot indicated that the predictions have good correspondence. The decision curve showed also a high net benefit. Similar evaluation results using the external validation cohort were seen in the predictions of having BOO. Overall results of the usability test demonstrated that the app was user-friendly with no major human factor issues. External validation of these newly developed a prediction model demonstrated a moderate level of discrimination, adequate calibration, and high net benefit gains for predicting both having BOO and requiring prostatic surgery. Also a smartphone app implementing the prediction model was user-friendly with no major human factor issue.

Sewer solids separation by sedimentation--the problem of modeling, validation and transferability.

PubMed

Kutzner, R; Brombach, H; Geiger, W F

2007-01-01

Sedimentation of sewer solids in tanks, ponds and similar devices is the most relevant process for the treatment of stormwater and combined sewer overflows in urban collecting systems. In the past a lot of research work was done to develop deterministic models for the description of this separation process. But these modern models are not commonly accepted in Germany until today. Water Authorities are sceptical with regard to model validation and transferability. Within this paper it is checked whether this scepticism is reasonable. A framework-proposal for the validation of mathematical models with zero or one dimensional spatial resolution for particle separation processes for stormwater and combined sewer overflow treatment is presented. This proposal was applied to publications of repute on sewer solids separation by sedimentation. The result was that none of the investigated models described in literature passed the validation entirely. There is an urgent need for future research in sewer solids sedimentation and remobilization!
Design and Development Computer-Based E-Learning Teaching Material for Improving Mathematical Understanding Ability and Spatial Sense of Junior High School Students

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nurjanah; Dahlan, J. A.; Wibisono, Y.

2017-02-01

This paper aims to make a design and development computer-based e-learning teaching material for improving mathematical understanding ability and spatial sense of junior high school students. Furthermore, the particular aims are (1) getting teaching material design, evaluation model, and intrument to measure mathematical understanding ability and spatial sense of junior high school students; (2) conducting trials computer-based e-learning teaching material model, asessment, and instrument to develop mathematical understanding ability and spatial sense of junior high school students; (3) completing teaching material models of computer-based e-learning, assessment, and develop mathematical understanding ability and spatial sense of junior high school students; (4) resulting research product is teaching materials of computer-based e-learning. Furthermore, the product is an interactive learning disc. The research method is used of this study is developmental research which is conducted by thought experiment and instruction experiment. The result showed that teaching materials could be used very well. This is based on the validation of computer-based e-learning teaching materials, which is validated by 5 multimedia experts. The judgement result of face and content validity of 5 validator shows that the same judgement result to the face and content validity of each item test of mathematical understanding ability and spatial sense. The reliability test of mathematical understanding ability and spatial sense are 0,929 and 0,939. This reliability test is very high. While the validity of both tests have a high and very high criteria.
Validation Database Based Thermal Analysis of an Advanced RPS Concept

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Balint, Tibor S.; Emis, Nickolas D.

2006-01-01

Advanced RPS concepts can be conceived, designed and assessed using high-end computational analysis tools. These predictions may provide an initial insight into the potential performance of these models, but verification and validation are necessary and required steps to gain confidence in the numerical analysis results. This paper discusses the findings from a numerical validation exercise for a small advanced RPS concept, based on a thermal analysis methodology developed at JPL and on a validation database obtained from experiments performed at Oregon State University. Both the numerical and experimental configurations utilized a single GPHS module enabled design, resembling a Mod-RTG concept. The analysis focused on operating and environmental conditions during the storage phase only. This validation exercise helped to refine key thermal analysis and modeling parameters, such as heat transfer coefficients, and conductivity and radiation heat transfer values. Improved understanding of the Mod-RTG concept through validation of the thermal model allows for future improvements to this power system concept.
Systematic review of prediction models for delirium in the older adult inpatient.

PubMed

Lindroth, Heidi; Bratzke, Lisa; Purvis, Suzanne; Brown, Roger; Coburn, Mark; Mrkobrada, Marko; Chan, Matthew T V; Davis, Daniel H J; Pandharipande, Pratik; Carlsson, Cynthia M; Sanders, Robert D

2018-04-28

To identify existing prognostic delirium prediction models and evaluate their validity and statistical methodology in the older adult (≥60 years) acute hospital population. Systematic review. PubMed, CINAHL, PsychINFO, SocINFO, Cochrane, Web of Science and Embase were searched from 1 January 1990 to 31 December 2016. The Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses and CHARMS Statement guided protocol development. age >60 years, inpatient, developed/validated a prognostic delirium prediction model. alcohol-related delirium, sample size ≤50. The primary performance measures were calibration and discrimination statistics. Two authors independently conducted search and extracted data. The synthesis of data was done by the first author. Disagreement was resolved by the mentoring author. The initial search resulted in 7,502 studies. Following full-text review of 192 studies, 33 were excluded based on age criteria (<60 years) and 27 met the defined criteria. Twenty-three delirium prediction models were identified, 14 were externally validated and 3 were internally validated. The following populations were represented: 11 medical, 3 medical/surgical and 13 surgical. The assessment of delirium was often non-systematic, resulting in varied incidence. Fourteen models were externally validated with an area under the receiver operating curve range from 0.52 to 0.94. Limitations in design, data collection methods and model metric reporting statistics were identified. Delirium prediction models for older adults show variable and typically inadequate predictive capabilities. Our review highlights the need for development of robust models to predict delirium in older inpatients. We provide recommendations for the development of such models. © Article author(s) (or their employer(s) unless otherwise stated in the text of the article) 2018. All rights reserved. No commercial use is permitted unless otherwise expressly granted.
Transtheoretical Model Constructs for Physical Activity Behavior are Invariant across Time among Ethnically Diverse Adults in Hawaii

PubMed Central

Nigg, Claudio R; Motl, Robert W; Horwath, Caroline; Dishman, Rod K

2012-01-01

Objectives Physical activity (PA) research applying the Transtheoretical Model (TTM) to examine group differences and/or change over time requires preliminary evidence of factorial validity and invariance. The current study examined the factorial validity and longitudinal invariance of TTM constructs recently revised for PA. Method Participants from an ethnically diverse sample in Hawaii (N=700) completed questionnaires capturing each TTM construct. Results Factorial validity was confirmed for each construct using confirmatory factor analysis with full-information maximum likelihood. Longitudinal invariance was evidenced across a shorter (3-month) and longer (6-month) time period via nested model comparisons. Conclusions The questionnaires for each validated TTM construct are provided, and can now be generalized across similar subgroups and time points. Further validation of the provided measures is suggested in additional populations and across extended time points. PMID:22778669
Validity of Sensory Systems as Distinct Constructs

PubMed Central

Su, Chia-Ting

2014-01-01

This study investigated the validity of sensory systems as distinct measurable constructs as part of a larger project examining Ayres’s theory of sensory integration. Confirmatory factor analysis (CFA) was conducted to test whether sensory questionnaire items represent distinct sensory system constructs. Data were obtained from clinical records of two age groups, 2- to 5-yr-olds (n = 231) and 6- to 10-yr-olds (n = 223). With each group, we tested several CFA models for goodness of fit with the data. The accepted model was identical for each group and indicated that tactile, vestibular–proprioceptive, visual, and auditory systems form distinct, valid factors that are not age dependent. In contrast, alternative models that grouped items according to sensory processing problems (e.g., over- or underresponsiveness within or across sensory systems) did not yield valid factors. Results indicate that distinct sensory system constructs can be measured validly using questionnaire data. PMID:25184467
A geomorphic approach to 100-year floodplain mapping for the Conterminous United States

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jafarzadegan, Keighobad; Merwade, Venkatesh; Saksena, Siddharth

2018-06-01

Floodplain mapping using hydrodynamic models is difficult in data scarce regions. Additionally, using hydrodynamic models to map floodplain over large stream network can be computationally challenging. Some of these limitations of floodplain mapping using hydrodynamic modeling can be overcome by developing computationally efficient statistical methods to identify floodplains in large and ungauged watersheds using publicly available data. This paper proposes a geomorphic model to generate probabilistic 100-year floodplain maps for the Conterminous United States (CONUS). The proposed model first categorizes the watersheds in the CONUS into three classes based on the height of the water surface corresponding to the 100-year flood from the streambed. Next, the probability that any watershed in the CONUS belongs to one of these three classes is computed through supervised classification using watershed characteristics related to topography, hydrography, land use and climate. The result of this classification is then fed into a probabilistic threshold binary classifier (PTBC) to generate the probabilistic 100-year floodplain maps. The supervised classification algorithm is trained by using the 100-year Flood Insurance Rated Maps (FIRM) from the U.S. Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA). FEMA FIRMs are also used to validate the performance of the proposed model in areas not included in the training. Additionally, HEC-RAS model generated flood inundation extents are used to validate the model performance at fifteen sites that lack FEMA maps. Validation results show that the probabilistic 100-year floodplain maps, generated by proposed model, match well with both FEMA and HEC-RAS generated maps. On average, the error of predicted flood extents is around 14% across the CONUS. The high accuracy of the validation results shows the reliability of the geomorphic model as an alternative approach for fast and cost effective delineation of 100-year floodplains for the CONUS.
Validation Metrics for Improving Our Understanding of Turbulent Transport - Moving Beyond Proof by Pretty Picture and Loud Assertion

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Holland, C.

2013-10-01

Developing validated models of plasma dynamics is essential for confident predictive modeling of current and future fusion devices. This tutorial will present an overview of the key guiding principles and practices for state-of-the-art validation studies, illustrated using examples from investigations of turbulent transport in magnetically confined plasmas. The primary focus of the talk will be the development of quantiatve validation metrics, which are essential for moving beyond qualitative and subjective assessments of model performance and fidelity. Particular emphasis and discussion is given to (i) the need for utilizing synthetic diagnostics to enable quantitatively meaningful comparisons between simulation and experiment, and (ii) the importance of robust uncertainty quantification and its inclusion within the metrics. To illustrate these concepts, we first review the structure and key insights gained from commonly used ``global'' transport model metrics (e.g. predictions of incremental stored energy or radially-averaged temperature), as well as their limitations. Building upon these results, a new form of turbulent transport metrics is then proposed, which focuses upon comparisons of predicted local gradients and fluctuation characteristics against observation. We demonstrate the utility of these metrics by applying them to simulations and modeling of a newly developed ``validation database'' derived from the results of a systematic, multi-year turbulent transport validation campaign on the DIII-D tokamak, in which comprehensive profile and fluctuation measurements have been obtained from a wide variety of heating and confinement scenarios. Finally, we discuss extensions of these metrics and their underlying design concepts to other areas of plasma confinement research, including both magnetohydrodynamic stability and integrated scenario modeling. Supported by the US DOE under DE-FG02-07ER54917 and DE-FC02-08ER54977.
The PDB_REDO server for macromolecular structure model optimization.

PubMed

Joosten, Robbie P; Long, Fei; Murshudov, Garib N; Perrakis, Anastassis

2014-07-01

The refinement and validation of a crystallographic structure model is the last step before the coordinates and the associated data are submitted to the Protein Data Bank (PDB). The success of the refinement procedure is typically assessed by validating the models against geometrical criteria and the diffraction data, and is an important step in ensuring the quality of the PDB public archive [Read et al. (2011 ▶), Structure, 19, 1395-1412]. The PDB_REDO procedure aims for 'constructive validation', aspiring to consistent and optimal refinement parameterization and pro-active model rebuilding, not only correcting errors but striving for optimal interpretation of the electron density. A web server for PDB_REDO has been implemented, allowing thorough, consistent and fully automated optimization of the refinement procedure in REFMAC and partial model rebuilding. The goal of the web server is to help practicing crystallo-graphers to improve their model prior to submission to the PDB. For this, additional steps were implemented in the PDB_REDO pipeline, both in the refinement procedure, e.g. testing of resolution limits and k-fold cross-validation for small test sets, and as new validation criteria, e.g. the density-fit metrics implemented in EDSTATS and ligand validation as implemented in YASARA. Innovative ways to present the refinement and validation results to the user are also described, which together with auto-generated Coot scripts can guide users to subsequent model inspection and improvement. It is demonstrated that using the server can lead to substantial improvement of structure models before they are submitted to the PDB.
Copenhagen Psychosocial Questionnaire - A validation study using the Job Demand-Resources model

PubMed Central

Hakanen, Jari J.; Westerlund, Hugo

2018-01-01

Aim This study aims at investigating the nomological validity of the Copenhagen Psychosocial Questionnaire (COPSOQ II) by using an extension of the Job Demands-Resources (JD-R) model with aspects of work ability as outcome. Material and methods The study design is cross-sectional. All staff working at public dental organizations in four regions of Sweden were invited to complete an electronic questionnaire (75% response rate, n = 1345). The questionnaire was based on COPSOQ II scales, the Utrecht Work Engagement scale, and the one-item Work Ability Score in combination with a proprietary item. The data was analysed by Structural Equation Modelling. Results This study contributed to the literature by showing that: A) The scale characteristics were satisfactory and the construct validity of COPSOQ instrument could be integrated in the JD-R framework; B) Job resources arising from leadership may be a driver of the two processes included in the JD-R model; and C) Both the health impairment and motivational processes were associated with WA, and the results suggested that leadership may impact WA, in particularly by securing task resources. Conclusion In conclusion, the nomological validity of COPSOQ was supported as the JD-R model-can be operationalized by the instrument. This may be helpful for transferral of complex survey results and work life theories to practitioners in the field. PMID:29708998
Hydrological Modeling of the Jiaoyi Watershed (China) Using HSPF Model

PubMed Central

Yan, Chang-An; Zhang, Wanchang; Zhang, Zhijie

2014-01-01

A watershed hydrological model, hydrological simulation program-Fortran (HSPF), was applied to simulate the spatial and temporal variation of hydrological processes in the Jiaoyi watershed of Huaihe River Basin, the heaviest shortage of water resources and polluted area in China. The model was calibrated using the years 2001–2004 and validated with data from 2005 to 2006. Calibration and validation results showed that the model generally simulated mean monthly and daily runoff precisely due to the close matching hydrographs between simulated and observed runoff, as well as the excellent evaluation indicators such as Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency (NSE), coefficient of correlation (R 2), and the relative error (RE). The similar simulation results between calibration and validation period showed that all the calibrated parameters had a certain representation in Jiaoyi watershed. Additionally, the simulation in rainy months was more accurate than the drought months. Another result in this paper was that HSPF was also capable of estimating the water balance components reasonably and realistically in space through the whole watershed. The calibrated model can be used to explore the effects of climate change scenarios and various watershed management practices on the water resources and water environment in the basin. PMID:25013863
Validation of individual and aggregate global flood hazard models for two major floods in Africa.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Trigg, M.; Bernhofen, M.; Whyman, C.

2017-12-01

A recent intercomparison of global flood hazard models undertaken by the Global Flood Partnership shows that there is an urgent requirement to undertake more validation of the models against flood observations. As part of the intercomparison, the aggregated model dataset resulting from the project was provided as open access data. We compare the individual and aggregated flood extent output from the six global models and test these against two major floods in the African Continent within the last decade, namely severe flooding on the Niger River in Nigeria in 2012, and on the Zambezi River in Mozambique in 2007. We test if aggregating different number and combination of models increases model fit to the observations compared with the individual model outputs. We present results that illustrate some of the challenges of comparing imperfect models with imperfect observations and also that of defining the probability of a real event in order to test standard model output probabilities. Finally, we propose a collective set of open access validation flood events, with associated observational data and descriptions that provide a standard set of tests across different climates and hydraulic conditions.
What makes an accurate and reliable subject-specific finite element model? A case study of an elephant femur

PubMed Central

Panagiotopoulou, O.; Wilshin, S. D.; Rayfield, E. J.; Shefelbine, S. J.; Hutchinson, J. R.

2012-01-01

Finite element modelling is well entrenched in comparative vertebrate biomechanics as a tool to assess the mechanical design of skeletal structures and to better comprehend the complex interaction of their form–function relationships. But what makes a reliable subject-specific finite element model? To approach this question, we here present a set of convergence and sensitivity analyses and a validation study as an example, for finite element analysis (FEA) in general, of ways to ensure a reliable model. We detail how choices of element size, type and material properties in FEA influence the results of simulations. We also present an empirical model for estimating heterogeneous material properties throughout an elephant femur (but of broad applicability to FEA). We then use an ex vivo experimental validation test of a cadaveric femur to check our FEA results and find that the heterogeneous model matches the experimental results extremely well, and far better than the homogeneous model. We emphasize how considering heterogeneous material properties in FEA may be critical, so this should become standard practice in comparative FEA studies along with convergence analyses, consideration of element size, type and experimental validation. These steps may be required to obtain accurate models and derive reliable conclusions from them. PMID:21752810
Modeling effectiveness of management practices for flood mitigation using GIS spatial analysis functions in Upper Cilliwung watershed

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Darma Tarigan, Suria

2016-01-01

Flooding is caused by excessive rainfall flowing downstream as cumulative surface runoff. Flooding event is a result of complex interaction of natural system components such as rainfall events, land use, soil, topography and channel characteristics. Modeling flooding event as a result of interaction of those components is a central theme in watershed management. The model is usually used to test performance of various management practices in flood mitigation. There are various types of management practices for flood mitigation including vegetative and structural management practices. Existing hydrological model such as SWAT and HEC-HMS models have limitation to accommodate discrete management practices such as infiltration well, small farm reservoir, silt pits in its analysis due to the lumped structure of these models. Aim of this research is to use raster spatial analysis functions of Geo-Information System (RGIS-HM) to model flooding event in Ciliwung watershed and to simulate impact of discrete management practices on surface runoff reduction. The model was validated using flooding data event of Ciliwung watershed on 29 January 2004. The hourly hydrograph data and rainfall data were available during period of model validation. The model validation provided good result with Nash-Suthcliff efficiency of 0.8. We also compared the RGIS-HM with Netlogo Hydrological Model (NL-HM). The RGIS-HM has similar capability with NL-HM in simulating discrete management practices in watershed scale.
Semi-physiologic model validation and bioequivalence trials simulation to select the best analyte for acetylsalicylic acid.

PubMed

Cuesta-Gragera, Ana; Navarro-Fontestad, Carmen; Mangas-Sanjuan, Victor; González-Álvarez, Isabel; García-Arieta, Alfredo; Trocóniz, Iñaki F; Casabó, Vicente G; Bermejo, Marival

2015-07-10

The objective of this paper is to apply a previously developed semi-physiologic pharmacokinetic model implemented in NONMEM to simulate bioequivalence trials (BE) of acetyl salicylic acid (ASA) in order to validate the model performance against ASA human experimental data. ASA is a drug with first-pass hepatic and intestinal metabolism following Michaelis-Menten kinetics that leads to the formation of two main metabolites in two generations (first and second generation metabolites). The first aim was to adapt the semi-physiological model for ASA in NOMMEN using ASA pharmacokinetic parameters from literature, showing its sequential metabolism. The second aim was to validate this model by comparing the results obtained in NONMEM simulations with published experimental data at a dose of 1000 mg. The validated model was used to simulate bioequivalence trials at 3 dose schemes (100, 1000 and 3000 mg) and with 6 test formulations with decreasing in vivo dissolution rate constants versus the reference formulation (kD 8-0.25 h (-1)). Finally, the third aim was to determine which analyte (parent drug, first generation or second generation metabolite) was more sensitive to changes in formulation performance. The validation results showed that the concentration-time curves obtained with the simulations reproduced closely the published experimental data, confirming model performance. The parent drug (ASA) was the analyte that showed to be more sensitive to the decrease in pharmaceutical quality, with the highest decrease in Cmax and AUC ratio between test and reference formulations. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
The Social Anxiety and Depression Life Interference—24 Inventory: Classical and modern psychometric evaluations

PubMed Central

Berzins, Tiffany L.; Garcia, Antonio F.; Acosta, Melina; Osman, Augustine

2017-01-01

Two instrument validation studies broadened the research literature exploring the factor structure, internal consistency reliability, and concurrent validity of scores on the Social Anxiety and Depression Life Interference—24 Inventory (SADLI-24; Osman, Bagge, Freedenthal, Guiterrez, & Emmerich, 2011). Study 1 (N = 1065) was undertaken to concurrently appraise three competing factor models for the instrument: a unidimensional model, a two-factor oblique model and a bifactor model. The bifactor model provided the best fit to the study sample data. Study 2 (N = 220) extended the results from Study 1 with an investigation of the convergent and discriminant validity for the bifactor model of the SADLI-24 with multiple regression analyses and scale-level exploratory structural equation modeling. This project yields data that augments the initial instrument development investigations for the target measure. PMID:28781401
Validity Evidence for the Organizational Commitment Questionnaire in the Japanese Corporate Culture.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

White, Marion M.; And Others

1995-01-01

The validity of the Organizational Commitment Questionnaire as a measure of organizational commitment in the Japanese culture was studied with 1,481 Japanese employees. The three-factor model was a better fit to the data than the one- or two-factor models. Results support the cross-cultural utility of the measure. (SLD)
Challenges of forest landscape modeling - simulating large landscapes and validating results

Treesearch

Hong S. He; Jian Yang; Stephen R. Shifley; Frank R. Thompson

2011-01-01

Over the last 20 years, we have seen a rapid development in the field of forest landscape modeling, fueled by both technological and theoretical advances. Two fundamental challenges have persisted since the inception of FLMs: (1) balancing realistic simulation of ecological processes at broad spatial and temporal scales with computing capacity, and (2) validating...
Temporal validation for landsat-based volume estimation model

Treesearch

Renaldo J. Arroyo; Emily B. Schultz; Thomas G. Matney; David L. Evans; Zhaofei Fan

2015-01-01

Satellite imagery can potentially reduce the costs and time associated with ground-based forest inventories; however, for satellite imagery to provide reliable forest inventory data, it must produce consistent results from one time period to the next. The objective of this study was to temporally validate a Landsat-based volume estimation model in a four county study...
Predicting the ungauged basin: model validation and realism assessment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

van Emmerik, Tim; Mulder, Gert; Eilander, Dirk; Piet, Marijn; Savenije, Hubert

2016-04-01

The hydrological decade on Predictions in Ungauged Basins (PUB) [1] led to many new insights in model development, calibration strategies, data acquisition and uncertainty analysis. Due to a limited amount of published studies on genuinely ungauged basins, model validation and realism assessment of model outcome has not been discussed to a great extent. With this study [2] we aim to contribute to the discussion on how one can determine the value and validity of a hydrological model developed for an ungauged basin. As in many cases no local, or even regional, data are available, alternative methods should be applied. Using a PUB case study in a genuinely ungauged basin in southern Cambodia, we give several examples of how one can use different types of soft data to improve model design, calibrate and validate the model, and assess the realism of the model output. A rainfall-runoff model was coupled to an irrigation reservoir, allowing the use of additional and unconventional data. The model was mainly forced with remote sensing data, and local knowledge was used to constrain the parameters. Model realism assessment was done using data from surveys. This resulted in a successful reconstruction of the reservoir dynamics, and revealed the different hydrological characteristics of the two topographical classes. We do not present a generic approach that can be transferred to other ungauged catchments, but we aim to show how clever model design and alternative data acquisition can result in a valuable hydrological model for ungauged catchments. [1] Sivapalan, M., Takeuchi, K., Franks, S., Gupta, V., Karambiri, H., Lakshmi, V., et al. (2003). IAHS decade on predictions in ungauged basins (PUB), 2003-2012: shaping an exciting future for the hydrological sciences. Hydrol. Sci. J. 48, 857-880. doi: 10.1623/hysj.48.6.857.51421 [2] van Emmerik, T., Mulder, G., Eilander, D., Piet, M. and Savenije, H. (2015). Predicting the ungauged basin: model validation and realism assessment. Front. Earth Sci. 3:62. doi: 10.3389/feart.2015.00062

Wide-Field Infrared Survey Telescope (WFIRST) Integrated Modeling

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Liu, Kuo-Chia; Blaurock, Carl

2017-01-01

Contents: introduction to WFIRST (Wide-Field Infrared Survey Telescope) and integrated modeling; WFIRST stability requirement summary; instability mitigation strategies; dynamic jitter results; STOP (structural-thermal-optical performance) (thermal distortion) results; STOP and jitter capability limitations; model validation philosophy.
Two Validated Ways of Improving the Ability of Decision-Making in Emergencies; Results from a Literature Review

PubMed Central

Khorram-Manesh, Amir; Berlin, Johan; Carlström, Eric

2016-01-01

The aim of the current review wasto study the existing knowledge about decision-making and to identify and describe validated training tools.A comprehensive literature review was conducted by using the following keywords: decision-making, emergencies, disasters, crisis management, training, exercises, simulation, validated, real-time, command and control, communication, collaboration, and multi-disciplinary in combination or as an isolated word. Two validated training systems developed in Sweden, 3 level collaboration (3LC) and MacSim, were identified and studied in light of the literature review in order to identify how decision-making can be trained. The training models fulfilled six of the eight identified characteristics of training for decision-making.Based on the results, these training models contained methods suitable to train for decision-making. PMID:27878123
Combined 3D-QSAR, molecular docking and molecular dynamics study on thyroid hormone activity of hydroxylated polybrominated diphenyl ethers to thyroid receptors β

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Li, Xiaolin; Ye, Li; Wang, Xiaoxiang

2012-12-15

Several recent reports suggested that hydroxylated polybrominated diphenyl ethers (HO-PBDEs) may disturb thyroid hormone homeostasis. To illuminate the structural features for thyroid hormone activity of HO-PBDEs and the binding mode between HO-PBDEs and thyroid hormone receptor (TR), the hormone activity of a series of HO-PBDEs to thyroid receptors β was studied based on the combination of 3D-QSAR, molecular docking, and molecular dynamics (MD) methods. The ligand- and receptor-based 3D-QSAR models were obtained using Comparative Molecular Similarity Index Analysis (CoMSIA) method. The optimum CoMSIA model with region focusing yielded satisfactory statistical results: leave-one-out cross-validation correlation coefficient (q{sup 2}) was 0.571 andmore » non-cross-validation correlation coefficient (r{sup 2}) was 0.951. Furthermore, the results of internal validation such as bootstrapping, leave-many-out cross-validation, and progressive scrambling as well as external validation indicated the rationality and good predictive ability of the best model. In addition, molecular docking elucidated the conformations of compounds and key amino acid residues at the docking pocket, MD simulation further determined the binding process and validated the rationality of docking results. -- Highlights: ► The thyroid hormone activities of HO-PBDEs were studied by 3D-QSAR. ► The binding modes between HO-PBDEs and TRβ were explored. ► 3D-QSAR, molecular docking, and molecular dynamics (MD) methods were performed.« less
DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Reynoso, F; Cho, S

Purpose: To develop and validate a Monte Carlo (MC) model of a Phillips RT-250 orthovoltage unit to test various beam spectrum modulation strategies for in vitro/vivo studies. A model of this type would enable the production of unconventional beams from a typical orthovoltage unit for novel therapeutic applications such as gold nanoparticle-aided radiotherapy. Methods: The MCNP5 code system was used to create a MC model of the head of RT-250 and a 30 × 30 × 30 cm{sup 3} water phantom. For the x-ray machine head, the current model includes the vacuum region, beryllium window, collimators, inherent filters and exteriormore » steel housing. For increased computational efficiency, the primary x-ray spectrum from the target was calculated from a well-validated analytical software package. Calculated percentage-depth-dose (PDD) values and photon spectra were validated against experimental data from film and Compton-scatter spectrum measurements. Results: The model was validated for three common settings of the machine namely, 250 kVp (0.25 mm Cu), 125 kVp (2 mm Al), and 75 kVp (2 mm Al). The MC results for the PDD curves were compared with film measurements and showed good agreement for all depths with a maximum difference of 4 % around dmax and under 2.5 % for all other depths. The primary photon spectra were also measured and compared with the MC results showing reasonable agreement between the two, validating the input spectra and the final spectra as predicted by the current MC model. Conclusion: The current MC model accurately predicted the dosimetric and spectral characteristics of each beam from the RT-250 orthovoltage unit, demonstrating its applicability and reliability for beam spectrum modulation tasks. It accomplished this without the need to model the bremsstrahlung xray production from the target, while significantly improved on computational efficiency by at least two orders of magnitude. Supported by DOD/PCRP grant W81XWH-12-1-0198.« less
DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Walsh, Seán, E-mail: walshsharp@gmail.com; Department of Oncology, Gray Institute for Radiation Oncology and Biology, University of Oxford, Oxford OX3 7DQ; Roelofs, Erik

Purpose: A fully heterogeneous population averaged mechanistic tumor control probability (TCP) model is appropriate for the analysis of external beam radiotherapy (EBRT). This has been accomplished for EBRT photon treatment of intermediate-risk prostate cancer. Extending the TCP model for low and high-risk patients would be beneficial in terms of overall decision making. Furthermore, different radiation treatment modalities such as protons and carbon-ions are becoming increasingly available. Consequently, there is a need for a complete TCP model. Methods: A TCP model was fitted and validated to a primary endpoint of 5-year biological no evidence of disease clinical outcome data obtained frommore » a review of the literature for low, intermediate, and high-risk prostate cancer patients (5218 patients fitted, 1088 patients validated), treated by photons, protons, or carbon-ions. The review followed the preferred reporting item for systematic reviews and meta-analyses statement. Treatment regimens include standard fractionation and hypofractionation treatments. Residual analysis and goodness of fit statistics were applied. Results: The TCP model achieves a good level of fit overall, linear regression results in a p-value of <0.000 01 with an adjusted-weighted-R{sup 2} value of 0.77 and a weighted root mean squared error (wRMSE) of 1.2%, to the fitted clinical outcome data. Validation of the model utilizing three independent datasets obtained from the literature resulted in an adjusted-weighted-R{sup 2} value of 0.78 and a wRMSE of less than 1.8%, to the validation clinical outcome data. The weighted mean absolute residual across the entire dataset is found to be 5.4%. Conclusions: This TCP model fitted and validated to clinical outcome data, appears to be an appropriate model for the inclusion of all clinical prostate cancer risk categories, and allows evaluation of current EBRT modalities with regard to tumor control prediction.« less
Development and validation of age-dependent FE human models of a mid-sized male thorax.

PubMed

El-Jawahri, Raed E; Laituri, Tony R; Ruan, Jesse S; Rouhana, Stephen W; Barbat, Saeed D

2010-11-01

The increasing number of people over 65 years old (YO) is an important research topic in the area of impact biomechanics, and finite element (FE) modeling can provide valuable support for related research. There were three objectives of this study: (1) Estimation of the representative age of the previously-documented Ford Human Body Model (FHBM) -- an FE model which approximates the geometry and mass of a mid-sized male, (2) Development of FE models representing two additional ages, and (3) Validation of the resulting three models to the extent possible with respect to available physical tests. Specifically, the geometry of the model was compared to published data relating rib angles to age, and the mechanical properties of different simulated tissues were compared to a number of published aging functions. The FHBM was determined to represent a 53-59 YO mid-sized male. The aforementioned aging functions were used to develop FE models representing two additional ages: 35 and 75 YO. The rib model was validated against human rib specimens and whole rib tests, under different loading conditions, with and without modeled fracture. In addition, the resulting three age-dependent models were validated by simulating cadaveric tests of blunt and sled impacts. The responses of the models, in general, were within the cadaveric response corridors. When compared to peak responses from individual cadavers similar in size and age to the age-dependent models, some responses were within one standard deviation of the test data. All the other responses, but one, were within two standard deviations.
A Simulation Study of Threats to Validity in Quasi-Experimental Designs: Interrelationship between Design, Measurement, and Analysis.

PubMed

Holgado-Tello, Fco P; Chacón-Moscoso, Salvador; Sanduvete-Chaves, Susana; Pérez-Gil, José A

2016-01-01

The Campbellian tradition provides a conceptual framework to assess threats to validity. On the other hand, different models of causal analysis have been developed to control estimation biases in different research designs. However, the link between design features, measurement issues, and concrete impact estimation analyses is weak. In order to provide an empirical solution to this problem, we use Structural Equation Modeling (SEM) as a first approximation to operationalize the analytical implications of threats to validity in quasi-experimental designs. Based on the analogies established between the Classical Test Theory (CTT) and causal analysis, we describe an empirical study based on SEM in which range restriction and statistical power have been simulated in two different models: (1) A multistate model in the control condition (pre-test); and (2) A single-trait-multistate model in the control condition (post-test), adding a new mediator latent exogenous (independent) variable that represents a threat to validity. Results show, empirically, how the differences between both the models could be partially or totally attributed to these threats. Therefore, SEM provides a useful tool to analyze the influence of potential threats to validity.
A Simulation Study of Threats to Validity in Quasi-Experimental Designs: Interrelationship between Design, Measurement, and Analysis

PubMed Central

Holgado-Tello, Fco. P.; Chacón-Moscoso, Salvador; Sanduvete-Chaves, Susana; Pérez-Gil, José A.

2016-01-01

The Campbellian tradition provides a conceptual framework to assess threats to validity. On the other hand, different models of causal analysis have been developed to control estimation biases in different research designs. However, the link between design features, measurement issues, and concrete impact estimation analyses is weak. In order to provide an empirical solution to this problem, we use Structural Equation Modeling (SEM) as a first approximation to operationalize the analytical implications of threats to validity in quasi-experimental designs. Based on the analogies established between the Classical Test Theory (CTT) and causal analysis, we describe an empirical study based on SEM in which range restriction and statistical power have been simulated in two different models: (1) A multistate model in the control condition (pre-test); and (2) A single-trait-multistate model in the control condition (post-test), adding a new mediator latent exogenous (independent) variable that represents a threat to validity. Results show, empirically, how the differences between both the models could be partially or totally attributed to these threats. Therefore, SEM provides a useful tool to analyze the influence of potential threats to validity. PMID:27378991
Development and Validation of the Sorokin Psychosocial Love Inventory for Divorced Individuals

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

D'Ambrosio, Joseph G.; Faul, Anna C.

2013-01-01

Objective: This study describes the development and validation of the Sorokin Psychosocial Love Inventory (SPSLI) measuring love actions toward a former spouse. Method: Classical measurement theory and confirmatory factor analysis (CFA) were utilized with an a priori theory and factor model to validate the SPSLI. Results: A 15-item scale…
Why don't you exercise? Development of the Amotivation Toward Exercise Scale among older inactive individuals.

PubMed

Vlachopoulos, Symeon P; Gigoudi, Maria A

2008-07-01

This article reports on the development and initial validation of the Amotivation Toward Exercise Scale (ATES), which reflects a taxonomy of older adults' reasons to refrain from exercise. Drawing on work by Pelletier, Dion, Tuson, and Green-Demers (1999) and Legault, Green-Demers, and Pelletier (2006), these dimensions were the outcome beliefs, capacity beliefs, effort beliefs, and value amotivation beliefs toward exercise. The results supported a 4-factor correlated model that fit the data better than either a unidimensional model or a 4-factor uncorrelated model or a hierarchical model with strong internal reliability for all the subscales. Evidence also emerged for the discriminant validity of the subscale scores. Furthermore, the predictive validity of the subscale scores was supported, and satisfactory measurement invariance was demonstrated across the calibration and validation samples, supporting the generalizability of the scale's measurement properties.
Verification and Validation of EnergyPlus Phase Change Material Model for Opaque Wall Assemblies

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Tabares-Velasco, P. C.; Christensen, C.; Bianchi, M.

2012-08-01

Phase change materials (PCMs) represent a technology that may reduce peak loads and HVAC energy consumption in buildings. A few building energy simulation programs have the capability to simulate PCMs, but their accuracy has not been completely tested. This study shows the procedure used to verify and validate the PCM model in EnergyPlus using a similar approach as dictated by ASHRAE Standard 140, which consists of analytical verification, comparative testing, and empirical validation. This process was valuable, as two bugs were identified and fixed in the PCM model, and version 7.1 of EnergyPlus will have a validated PCM model. Preliminarymore » results using whole-building energy analysis show that careful analysis should be done when designing PCMs in homes, as their thermal performance depends on several variables such as PCM properties and location in the building envelope.« less
Construct validity of the Moral Development Scale for Professionals (MDSP).

PubMed

Söderhamn, Olle; Bjørnestad, John Olav; Skisland, Anne; Cliffordson, Christina

2011-01-01

The aim of this study was to investigate the construct validity of the Moral Development Scale for Professionals (MDSP) using structural equation modeling. The instrument is a 12-item self-report instrument, developed in the Scandinavian cultural context and based on Kohlberg's theory. A hypothesized simplex structure model underlying the MDSP was tested through structural equation modeling. Validity was also tested as the proportion of respondents older than 20 years that reached the highest moral level, which according to the theory should be small. A convenience sample of 339 nursing students with a mean age of 25.3 years participated. Results confirmed the simplex model structure, indicating that MDSP reflects a moral construct empirically organized from low to high. A minority of respondents >20 years of age (13.5%) scored more than 80% on the highest moral level. The findings support the construct validity of the MDSP and the stages and levels in Kohlberg's theory.
Construct Validity of the Autism Impact Measure (AIM).

PubMed

Mazurek, Micah O; Carlson, Coleen; Baker-Ericzén, Mary; Butter, Eric; Norris, Megan; Kanne, Stephen

2018-01-17

The Autism Impact Measure (AIM) was designed to track incremental change in frequency and impact of core ASD symptoms. The current study examined the structural and convergent validity of the AIM in a large sample of children with ASD. The results of a series of exploratory and confirmatory factor analyses yielded a final model with five theoretically and empirically meaningful subdomains: Repetitive Behavior, Atypical Behavior, Communication, Social Reciprocity, and Peer Interaction. The final model showed very good fit both overall and for each of the five factors, indicating excellent structural validity. AIM subdomain scores were significantly correlated with measures of similar constructs across all five domains. The results provide further support for the psychometric properties of the AIM.
[Nursing on the Web: the creation and validation process of a web site on coronary artery disease].

PubMed

Marques, Isaac Rosa; Marin, Heimar de Fátima

2002-01-01

The World Wide Web is an important health information research source. A challenge for the Brazilian Nursing Informatics area is to use its potential to promote health education. This paper aims to present a developing and validating model used in an educational Web site, named CardioSite, which subject is Coronary Heart Disease. In its creation it was adopted a method with phases of conceptual modeling, development, implementation, and evaluation. In the evaluation phase, the validation was performed through an online informatics and health experts panel. The results demonstrated that information was reliable and valid. Considering that national official systems are not available to that approach, this model demonstrated effectiveness in assessing the quality of the Web site content.
Model-Based Verification and Validation of Spacecraft Avionics

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Khan, M. Omair; Sievers, Michael; Standley, Shaun

2012-01-01

Verification and Validation (V&V) at JPL is traditionally performed on flight or flight-like hardware running flight software. For some time, the complexity of avionics has increased exponentially while the time allocated for system integration and associated V&V testing has remained fixed. There is an increasing need to perform comprehensive system level V&V using modeling and simulation, and to use scarce hardware testing time to validate models; the norm for thermal and structural V&V for some time. Our approach extends model-based V&V to electronics and software through functional and structural models implemented in SysML. We develop component models of electronics and software that are validated by comparison with test results from actual equipment. The models are then simulated enabling a more complete set of test cases than possible on flight hardware. SysML simulations provide access and control of internal nodes that may not be available in physical systems. This is particularly helpful in testing fault protection behaviors when injecting faults is either not possible or potentially damaging to the hardware. We can also model both hardware and software behaviors in SysML, which allows us to simulate hardware and software interactions. With an integrated model and simulation capability we can evaluate the hardware and software interactions and identify problems sooner. The primary missing piece is validating SysML model correctness against hardware; this experiment demonstrated such an approach is possible.
LIVVkit: An extensible, python-based, land ice verification and validation toolkit for ice sheet models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kennedy, Joseph H.; Bennett, Andrew R.; Evans, Katherine J.; Price, Stephen; Hoffman, Matthew; Lipscomb, William H.; Fyke, Jeremy; Vargo, Lauren; Boghozian, Adrianna; Norman, Matthew; Worley, Patrick H.

2017-06-01

To address the pressing need to better understand the behavior and complex interaction of ice sheets within the global Earth system, significant development of continental-scale, dynamical ice sheet models is underway. Concurrent to the development of the Community Ice Sheet Model (CISM), the corresponding verification and validation (V&V) process is being coordinated through a new, robust, Python-based extensible software package, the Land Ice Verification and Validation toolkit (LIVVkit). Incorporated into the typical ice sheet model development cycle, it provides robust and automated numerical verification, software verification, performance validation, and physical validation analyses on a variety of platforms, from personal laptops to the largest supercomputers. LIVVkit operates on sets of regression test and reference data sets, and provides comparisons for a suite of community prioritized tests, including configuration and parameter variations, bit-for-bit evaluation, and plots of model variables to indicate where differences occur. LIVVkit also provides an easily extensible framework to incorporate and analyze results of new intercomparison projects, new observation data, and new computing platforms. LIVVkit is designed for quick adaptation to additional ice sheet models via abstraction of model specific code, functions, and configurations into an ice sheet model description bundle outside the main LIVVkit structure. Ultimately, through shareable and accessible analysis output, LIVVkit is intended to help developers build confidence in their models and enhance the credibility of ice sheet models overall.
Model-Based Thermal System Design Optimization for the James Webb Space Telescope

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Cataldo, Giuseppe; Niedner, Malcolm B.; Fixsen, Dale J.; Moseley, Samuel H.

2017-01-01

Spacecraft thermal model validation is normally performed by comparing model predictions with thermal test data and reducing their discrepancies to meet the mission requirements. Based on thermal engineering expertise, the model input parameters are adjusted to tune the model output response to the test data. The end result is not guaranteed to be the best solution in terms of reduced discrepancy and the process requires months to complete. A model-based methodology was developed to perform the validation process in a fully automated fashion and provide mathematical bases to the search for the optimal parameter set that minimizes the discrepancies between model and data. The methodology was successfully applied to several thermal subsystems of the James Webb Space Telescope (JWST). Global or quasiglobal optimal solutions were found and the total execution time of the model validation process was reduced to about two weeks. The model sensitivities to the parameters, which are required to solve the optimization problem, can be calculated automatically before the test begins and provide a library for sensitivity studies. This methodology represents a crucial commodity when testing complex, large-scale systems under time and budget constraints. Here, results for the JWST Core thermal system will be presented in detail.
Model-based thermal system design optimization for the James Webb Space Telescope

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cataldo, Giuseppe; Niedner, Malcolm B.; Fixsen, Dale J.; Moseley, Samuel H.

2017-10-01

Spacecraft thermal model validation is normally performed by comparing model predictions with thermal test data and reducing their discrepancies to meet the mission requirements. Based on thermal engineering expertise, the model input parameters are adjusted to tune the model output response to the test data. The end result is not guaranteed to be the best solution in terms of reduced discrepancy and the process requires months to complete. A model-based methodology was developed to perform the validation process in a fully automated fashion and provide mathematical bases to the search for the optimal parameter set that minimizes the discrepancies between model and data. The methodology was successfully applied to several thermal subsystems of the James Webb Space Telescope (JWST). Global or quasiglobal optimal solutions were found and the total execution time of the model validation process was reduced to about two weeks. The model sensitivities to the parameters, which are required to solve the optimization problem, can be calculated automatically before the test begins and provide a library for sensitivity studies. This methodology represents a crucial commodity when testing complex, large-scale systems under time and budget constraints. Here, results for the JWST Core thermal system will be presented in detail.
OWL-based reasoning methods for validating archetypes.

PubMed

Menárguez-Tortosa, Marcos; Fernández-Breis, Jesualdo Tomás

2013-04-01

Some modern Electronic Healthcare Record (EHR) architectures and standards are based on the dual model-based architecture, which defines two conceptual levels: reference model and archetype model. Such architectures represent EHR domain knowledge by means of archetypes, which are considered by many researchers to play a fundamental role for the achievement of semantic interoperability in healthcare. Consequently, formal methods for validating archetypes are necessary. In recent years, there has been an increasing interest in exploring how semantic web technologies in general, and ontologies in particular, can facilitate the representation and management of archetypes, including binding to terminologies, but no solution based on such technologies has been provided to date to validate archetypes. Our approach represents archetypes by means of OWL ontologies. This permits to combine the two levels of the dual model-based architecture in one modeling framework which can also integrate terminologies available in OWL format. The validation method consists of reasoning on those ontologies to find modeling errors in archetypes: incorrect restrictions over the reference model, non-conformant archetype specializations and inconsistent terminological bindings. The archetypes available in the repositories supported by the openEHR Foundation and the NHS Connecting for Health Program, which are the two largest publicly available ones, have been analyzed with our validation method. For such purpose, we have implemented a software tool called Archeck. Our results show that around 1/5 of archetype specializations contain modeling errors, the most common mistakes being related to coded terms and terminological bindings. The analysis of each repository reveals that different patterns of errors are found in both repositories. This result reinforces the need for making serious efforts in improving archetype design processes. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.
An optimization model to agroindustrial sector in antioquia (Colombia, South America)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fernandez, J.

2015-06-01

This paper develops a proposal of a general optimization model for the flower industry, which is defined by using discrete simulation and nonlinear optimization, whose mathematical models have been solved by using ProModel simulation tools and Gams optimization. It defines the operations that constitute the production and marketing of the sector, statistically validated data taken directly from each operation through field work, the discrete simulation model of the operations and the linear optimization model of the entire industry chain are raised. The model is solved with the tools described above and presents the results validated in a case study.

Development of a Two-fluid Drag Law for Clustered Particles using Direct Numerical Simulation and Validation through Experiments

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Gokaltun, Seckin; Munroe, Norman; Subramaniam, Shankar

2014-12-31

This study presents a new drag model, based on the cohesive inter-particle forces, implemented in the MFIX code. This new drag model combines an existing standard model in MFIX with a particle-based drag model based on a switching principle. Switches between the models in the computational domain occur where strong particle-to-particle cohesion potential is detected. Three versions of the new model were obtained by using one standard drag model in each version. Later, performance of each version was compared against available experimental data for a fluidized bed, published in the literature and used extensively by other researchers for validation purposes.more » In our analysis of the results, we first observed that standard models used in this research were incapable of producing closely matching results. Then, we showed for a simple case that a threshold is needed to be set on the solid volume fraction. This modification was applied to avoid non-physical results for the clustering predictions, when governing equation of the solid granular temperate was solved. Later, we used our hybrid technique and observed the capability of our approach in improving the numerical results significantly; however, improvement of the results depended on the threshold of the cohesive index, which was used in the switching procedure. Our results showed that small values of the threshold for the cohesive index could result in significant reduction of the computational error for all the versions of the proposed drag model. In addition, we redesigned an existing circulating fluidized bed (CFB) test facility in order to create validation cases for clustering regime of Geldart A type particles.« less
Validation of the DIFFAL, HPAC and HotSpot Dispersion Models Using the Full-Scale Radiological Dispersal Device (FSRDD) Field Trials Witness Plate Deposition Dataset.

PubMed

Purves, Murray; Parkes, David

2016-05-01

Three atmospheric dispersion models--DIFFAL, HPAC, and HotSpot--of differing complexities have been validated against the witness plate deposition dataset taken during the Full-Scale Radiological Dispersal Device (FSRDD) Field Trials. The small-scale nature of these trials in comparison to many other historical radiological dispersion trials provides a unique opportunity to evaluate the near-field performance of the models considered. This paper performs validation of these models using two graphical methods of comparison: deposition contour plots and hotline profile graphs. All of the models tested are assessed to perform well, especially considering that previous model developments and validations have been focused on larger-scale scenarios. Of the models, HPAC generally produced the most accurate results, especially at locations within ∼100 m of GZ. Features present within the observed data, such as hot spots, were not well modeled by any of the codes considered. Additionally, it was found that an increase in the complexity of the meteorological data input to the models did not necessarily lead to an improvement in model accuracy; this is potentially due to the small-scale nature of the trials.
HESS Opinions: The need for process-based evaluation of large-domain hyper-resolution models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Melsen, Lieke A.; Teuling, Adriaan J.; Torfs, Paul J. J. F.; Uijlenhoet, Remko; Mizukami, Naoki; Clark, Martyn P.

2016-03-01

A meta-analysis on 192 peer-reviewed articles reporting on applications of the variable infiltration capacity (VIC) model in a distributed way reveals that the spatial resolution at which the model is applied has increased over the years, while the calibration and validation time interval has remained unchanged. We argue that the calibration and validation time interval should keep pace with the increase in spatial resolution in order to resolve the processes that are relevant at the applied spatial resolution. We identified six time concepts in hydrological models, which all impact the model results and conclusions. Process-based model evaluation is particularly relevant when models are applied at hyper-resolution, where stakeholders expect credible results both at a high spatial and temporal resolution.
HESS Opinions: The need for process-based evaluation of large-domain hyper-resolution models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Melsen, L. A.; Teuling, A. J.; Torfs, P. J. J. F.; Uijlenhoet, R.; Mizukami, N.; Clark, M. P.

2015-12-01

A meta-analysis on 192 peer-reviewed articles reporting applications of the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) model in a distributed way reveals that the spatial resolution at which the model is applied has increased over the years, while the calibration and validation time interval has remained unchanged. We argue that the calibration and validation time interval should keep pace with the increase in spatial resolution in order to resolve the processes that are relevant at the applied spatial resolution. We identified six time concepts in hydrological models, which all impact the model results and conclusions. Process-based model evaluation is particularly relevant when models are applied at hyper-resolution, where stakeholders expect credible results both at a high spatial and temporal resolution.
The Model Analyst’s Toolkit: Scientific Model Development, Analysis, and Validation

DTIC Science & Technology

2014-05-20

but there can still be many recommendations generated. Therefore, the recommender results are displayed in a sortable table where each row is a...reporting period. Since the synthesis graph can be complex and have many dependencies, the system must determine the order of evaluation of nodes, and...validation failure, if any. 3.1. Automatic Feature Extraction In many domains, causal models can often be more readily described as patterns of
Improved Healing of Large, Osseous, Segmental Defects by Reverse Dynamization: Evaluation in a Sheep Model

DTIC Science & Technology

2017-12-01

reverse dynamization. This was supplemented by finite element analysis and the use of a strain gauge. This aim was successfully completed, with the...testing deformation results for model validation. Development of a Finite Element (FE) model was conducted through ANSYS 16 to help characterize...Fixators were characterized through mechanical testing by sawbone and ovine cadaver tibiae samples, and data was used to validate a finite element
A Framework for Text Mining in Scientometric Study: A Case Study in Biomedicine Publications

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Silalahi, V. M. M.; Hardiyati, R.; Nadhiroh, I. M.; Handayani, T.; Rahmaida, R.; Amelia, M.

2018-04-01

The data of Indonesians research publications in the domain of biomedicine has been collected to be text mined for the purpose of a scientometric study. The goal is to build a predictive model that provides a classification of research publications on the potency for downstreaming. The model is based on the drug development processes adapted from the literatures. An effort is described to build the conceptual model and the development of a corpus on the research publications in the domain of Indonesian biomedicine. Then an investigation is conducted relating to the problems associated with building a corpus and validating the model. Based on our experience, a framework is proposed to manage the scientometric study based on text mining. Our method shows the effectiveness of conducting a scientometric study based on text mining in order to get a valid classification model. This valid model is mainly supported by the iterative and close interactions with the domain experts starting from identifying the issues, building a conceptual model, to the labelling, validation and results interpretation.
Barotropic Tidal Predictions and Validation in a Relocatable Modeling Environment. Revised

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Mehra, Avichal; Passi, Ranjit; Kantha, Lakshmi; Payne, Steven; Brahmachari, Shuvobroto

1998-01-01

Under funding from the Office of Naval Research (ONR), the Mississippi State University Center for Air Sea Technology (CAST) has been working on developing a Relocatable Modeling Environment (RME) to provide a uniform and unbiased infrastructure for efficiently configuring numerical models in any geographic or oceanic region. Under Naval Oceanographic Office (NAVOCEANO) funding, the model was implemented and tested for NAVOCEANO use. With our current emphasis on ocean tidal modeling, CAST has adopted the Colorado University's numerical ocean model, known as CURReNTSS (Colorado University Rapidly Relocatable Nestable Storm Surge) Model, as the model of choice. During the RME development process, CURReNTSS has been relocated to several coastal oceanic regions, providing excellent results that demonstrate its veracity. This report documents the model validation results and provides a brief description of the Graphic user Interface.
Development and Validation of Linear Alternator Models for the Advanced Stirling Convertor

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Metscher, Jonathan F.; Lewandowski, Edward

2014-01-01

Two models of the linear alternator of the Advanced Stirling Convertor (ASC) have been developed using the Sage 1-D modeling software package. The first model relates the piston motion to electric current by means of a motor constant. The second uses electromagnetic model components to model the magnetic circuit of the alternator. The models are tuned and validated using test data and compared against each other. Results show both models can be tuned to achieve results within 7% of ASC test data under normal operating conditions. Using Sage enables the creation of a complete ASC model to be developed and simulations completed quickly compared to more complex multi-dimensional models. These models allow for better insight into overall Stirling convertor performance, aid with Stirling power system modeling, and in the future support NASA mission planning for Stirling-based power systems.
Development and Validation of Linear Alternator Models for the Advanced Stirling Convertor

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Metscher, Jonathan F.; Lewandowski, Edward J.

2015-01-01

Two models of the linear alternator of the Advanced Stirling Convertor (ASC) have been developed using the Sage 1-D modeling software package. The first model relates the piston motion to electric current by means of a motor constant. The second uses electromagnetic model components to model the magnetic circuit of the alternator. The models are tuned and validated using test data and also compared against each other. Results show both models can be tuned to achieve results within 7 of ASC test data under normal operating conditions. Using Sage enables the creation of a complete ASC model to be developed and simulations completed quickly compared to more complex multi-dimensional models. These models allow for better insight into overall Stirling convertor performance, aid with Stirling power system modeling, and in the future support NASA mission planning for Stirling-based power systems.
A GPU-accelerated Monte Carlo dose calculation platform and its application toward validating an MRI-guided radiation therapy beam model

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Wang, Yuhe; Mazur, Thomas R.; Green, Olga

Purpose: The clinical commissioning of IMRT subject to a magnetic field is challenging. The purpose of this work is to develop a GPU-accelerated Monte Carlo dose calculation platform based on PENELOPE and then use the platform to validate a vendor-provided MRIdian head model toward quality assurance of clinical IMRT treatment plans subject to a 0.35 T magnetic field. Methods: PENELOPE was first translated from FORTRAN to C++ and the result was confirmed to produce equivalent results to the original code. The C++ code was then adapted to CUDA in a workflow optimized for GPU architecture. The original code was expandedmore » to include voxelized transport with Woodcock tracking, faster electron/positron propagation in a magnetic field, and several features that make gPENELOPE highly user-friendly. Moreover, the vendor-provided MRIdian head model was incorporated into the code in an effort to apply gPENELOPE as both an accurate and rapid dose validation system. A set of experimental measurements were performed on the MRIdian system to examine the accuracy of both the head model and gPENELOPE. Ultimately, gPENELOPE was applied toward independent validation of patient doses calculated by MRIdian’s KMC. Results: An acceleration factor of 152 was achieved in comparison to the original single-thread FORTRAN implementation with the original accuracy being preserved. For 16 treatment plans including stomach (4), lung (2), liver (3), adrenal gland (2), pancreas (2), spleen(1), mediastinum (1), and breast (1), the MRIdian dose calculation engine agrees with gPENELOPE with a mean gamma passing rate of 99.1% ± 0.6% (2%/2 mm). Conclusions: A Monte Carlo simulation platform was developed based on a GPU- accelerated version of PENELOPE. This platform was used to validate that both the vendor-provided head model and fast Monte Carlo engine used by the MRIdian system are accurate in modeling radiation transport in a patient using 2%/2 mm gamma criteria. Future applications of this platform will include dose validation and accumulation, IMRT optimization, and dosimetry system modeling for next generation MR-IGRT systems.« less
A GPU-accelerated Monte Carlo dose calculation platform and its application toward validating an MRI-guided radiation therapy beam model

PubMed Central

Wang, Yuhe; Mazur, Thomas R.; Green, Olga; Hu, Yanle; Li, Hua; Rodriguez, Vivian; Wooten, H. Omar; Yang, Deshan; Zhao, Tianyu; Mutic, Sasa; Li, H. Harold

2016-01-01

Purpose: The clinical commissioning of IMRT subject to a magnetic field is challenging. The purpose of this work is to develop a GPU-accelerated Monte Carlo dose calculation platform based on penelope and then use the platform to validate a vendor-provided MRIdian head model toward quality assurance of clinical IMRT treatment plans subject to a 0.35 T magnetic field. Methods: penelope was first translated from fortran to c++ and the result was confirmed to produce equivalent results to the original code. The c++ code was then adapted to cuda in a workflow optimized for GPU architecture. The original code was expanded to include voxelized transport with Woodcock tracking, faster electron/positron propagation in a magnetic field, and several features that make gpenelope highly user-friendly. Moreover, the vendor-provided MRIdian head model was incorporated into the code in an effort to apply gpenelope as both an accurate and rapid dose validation system. A set of experimental measurements were performed on the MRIdian system to examine the accuracy of both the head model and gpenelope. Ultimately, gpenelope was applied toward independent validation of patient doses calculated by MRIdian’s kmc. Results: An acceleration factor of 152 was achieved in comparison to the original single-thread fortran implementation with the original accuracy being preserved. For 16 treatment plans including stomach (4), lung (2), liver (3), adrenal gland (2), pancreas (2), spleen(1), mediastinum (1), and breast (1), the MRIdian dose calculation engine agrees with gpenelope with a mean gamma passing rate of 99.1% ± 0.6% (2%/2 mm). Conclusions: A Monte Carlo simulation platform was developed based on a GPU- accelerated version of penelope. This platform was used to validate that both the vendor-provided head model and fast Monte Carlo engine used by the MRIdian system are accurate in modeling radiation transport in a patient using 2%/2 mm gamma criteria. Future applications of this platform will include dose validation and accumulation, IMRT optimization, and dosimetry system modeling for next generation MR-IGRT systems. PMID:27370123
Validation of DYSTOOL for unsteady aerodynamic modeling of 2D airfoils

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

González, A.; Gomez-Iradi, S.; Munduate, X.

2014-06-01

From the point of view of wind turbine modeling, an important group of tools is based on blade element momentum (BEM) theory using 2D aerodynamic calculations on the blade elements. Due to the importance of this sectional computation of the blades, the National Renewable Wind Energy Center of Spain (CENER) developed DYSTOOL, an aerodynamic code for 2D airfoil modeling based on the Beddoes-Leishman model. The main focus here is related to the model parameters, whose values depend on the airfoil or the operating conditions. In this work, the values of the parameters are adjusted using available experimental or CFD data. The present document is mainly related to the validation of the results of DYSTOOL for 2D airfoils. The results of the computations have been compared with unsteady experimental data of the S809 and NACA0015 profiles. Some of the cases have also been modeled using the CFD code WMB (Wind Multi Block), within the framework of a collaboration with ACCIONA Windpower. The validation has been performed using pitch oscillations with different reduced frequencies, Reynolds numbers, amplitudes and mean angles of attack. The results have shown a good agreement using the methodology of adjustment for the value of the parameters. DYSTOOL have demonstrated to be a promising tool for 2D airfoil unsteady aerodynamic modeling.
Development of an anaerobic threshold (HRLT, HRVT) estimation equation using the heart rate threshold (HRT) during the treadmill incremental exercise test

PubMed Central

Ham, Joo-ho; Park, Hun-Young; Kim, Youn-ho; Bae, Sang-kon; Ko, Byung-hoon

2017-01-01

[Purpose] The purpose of this study was to develop a regression model to estimate the heart rate at the lactate threshold (HRLT) and the heart rate at the ventilatory threshold (HRVT) using the heart rate threshold (HRT), and to test the validity of the regression model. [Methods] We performed a graded exercise test with a treadmill in 220 normal individuals (men: 112, women: 108) aged 20–59 years. HRT, HRLT, and HRVT were measured in all subjects. A regression model was developed to estimate HRLT and HRVT using HRT with 70% of the data (men: 79, women: 76) through randomization (7:3), with the Bernoulli trial. The validity of the regression model developed with the remaining 30% of the data (men: 33, women: 32) was also examined. [Results] Based on the regression coefficient, we found that the independent variable HRT was a significant variable in all regression models. The adjusted R2 of the developed regression models averaged about 70%, and the standard error of estimation of the validity test results was 11 bpm, which is similar to that of the developed model. [Conclusion] These results suggest that HRT is a useful parameter for predicting HRLT and HRVT. PMID:29036765
[Traceability of Wine Varieties Using Near Infrared Spectroscopy Combined with Cyclic Voltammetry].

PubMed

Li, Meng-hua; Li, Jing-ming; Li, Jun-hui; Zhang, Lu-da; Zhao, Long-lian

2015-06-01

To achieve the traceability of wine varieties, a method was proposed to fuse Near-infrared (NIR) spectra and cyclic voltammograms (CV) which contain different information using D-S evidence theory. NIR spectra and CV curves of three different varieties of wines (cabernet sauvignon, merlot, cabernet gernischt) which come from seven different geographical origins were collected separately. The discriminant models were built using PLS-DA method. Based on this, D-S evidence theory was then applied to achieve the integration of the two kinds of discrimination results. After integrated by D-S evidence theory, the accuracy rate of cross-validation is 95.69% and validation set is 94.12% for wine variety identification. When only considering the wine that come from Yantai, the accuracy rate of cross-validation is 99.46% and validation set is 100%. All the traceability models after fusion achieved better results on classification than individual method. These results suggest that the proposed method combining electrochemical information with spectral information using the D-S evidence combination formula is benefit to the improvement of model discrimination effect, and is a promising tool for discriminating different kinds of wines.
Optimal test selection for prediction uncertainty reduction

DOE PAGES

Mullins, Joshua; Mahadevan, Sankaran; Urbina, Angel

2016-12-02

Economic factors and experimental limitations often lead to sparse and/or imprecise data used for the calibration and validation of computational models. This paper addresses resource allocation for calibration and validation experiments, in order to maximize their effectiveness within given resource constraints. When observation data are used for model calibration, the quality of the inferred parameter descriptions is directly affected by the quality and quantity of the data. This paper characterizes parameter uncertainty within a probabilistic framework, which enables the uncertainty to be systematically reduced with additional data. The validation assessment is also uncertain in the presence of sparse and imprecisemore » data; therefore, this paper proposes an approach for quantifying the resulting validation uncertainty. Since calibration and validation uncertainty affect the prediction of interest, the proposed framework explores the decision of cost versus importance of data in terms of the impact on the prediction uncertainty. Often, calibration and validation tests may be performed for different input scenarios, and this paper shows how the calibration and validation results from different conditions may be integrated into the prediction. Then, a constrained discrete optimization formulation that selects the number of tests of each type (calibration or validation at given input conditions) is proposed. Furthermore, the proposed test selection methodology is demonstrated on a microelectromechanical system (MEMS) example.« less
Factorial validity of the Problematic Facebook Use Scale for adolescents and young adults

PubMed Central

Marino, Claudia; Vieno, Alessio; Altoè, Gianmarco; Spada, Marcantonio M.

2017-01-01

Background and aims Recent research on problematic Facebook use has highlighted the need to develop a specific theory-driven measure to assess this potential behavioral addiction. The aim of the present study was to examine the factorial validity of the Problematic Facebook Use Scale (PFUS) adapted from Caplan’s Generalized Problematic Internet Scale model. Methods A total of 1,460 Italian adolescents and young adults (aged 14–29 years) participated in the study. Confirmatory factor analyses were performed in order to assess the factorial validity of the scale. Results Results revealed that the factor structure of the PFUS provided a good fit to the data. Furthermore, results of the multiple group analyses supported the invariance of the model across age and gender groups. Discussion and conclusions This study provides evidence supporting the factorial validity of the PFUS. This new scale provides a theory-driven tool to assess problematic use of Facebook among male and female adolescents and young adults. PMID:28198639
Factorial validity of the Problematic Facebook Use Scale for adolescents and young adults.

PubMed

Marino, Claudia; Vieno, Alessio; Altoè, Gianmarco; Spada, Marcantonio M

2017-03-01

Background and aims Recent research on problematic Facebook use has highlighted the need to develop a specific theory-driven measure to assess this potential behavioral addiction. The aim of the present study was to examine the factorial validity of the Problematic Facebook Use Scale (PFUS) adapted from Caplan's Generalized Problematic Internet Scale model. Methods A total of 1,460 Italian adolescents and young adults (aged 14-29 years) participated in the study. Confirmatory factor analyses were performed in order to assess the factorial validity of the scale. Results Results revealed that the factor structure of the PFUS provided a good fit to the data. Furthermore, results of the multiple group analyses supported the invariance of the model across age and gender groups. Discussion and conclusions This study provides evidence supporting the factorial validity of the PFUS. This new scale provides a theory-driven tool to assess problematic use of Facebook among male and female adolescents and young adults.
Implementation and Validation of the Chien k-epsilon Turbulence Model in the Wind Navier-Stokes Code

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Yoder, Dennis A.; Georgiadis, Nicholas J.

1999-01-01

The two equation k-epsilon turbulence model of Chien has been implemented in the WIND Navier-Stokes flow solver. Details of the numerical solution algorithm, initialization procedure, and stability enhancements are described. Results obtained with this version of the model are compared with those from the Chien k-epsilon model in the NPARC Navier-Stokes code and from the WIND SST model for three validation cases: the incompressible flow over a smooth flat plate, the incompressible flow over a backward facing step, and the shock-induced flow separation inside a transonic diffuser. The k-epsilon model results indicate that the WIND model functions very similarly to that in NPARC, though the WIND code appears to he slightly more accurate in the treatment of the near-wall region. Comparisons of the k-epsilon model results with those from the SST model were less definitive, as each model exhibited strengths and weaknesses for each particular case.
Green Pea and Garlic Puree Model Food Development for Thermal Pasteurization Process Quality Evaluation.

PubMed

Bornhorst, Ellen R; Tang, Juming; Sablani, Shyam S; Barbosa-Cánovas, Gustavo V; Liu, Fang

2017-07-01

Development and selection of model foods is a critical part of microwave thermal process development, simulation validation, and optimization. Previously developed model foods for pasteurization process evaluation utilized Maillard reaction products as the time-temperature integrators, which resulted in similar temperature sensitivity among the models. The aim of this research was to develop additional model foods based on different time-temperature integrators, determine their dielectric properties and color change kinetics, and validate the optimal model food in hot water and microwave-assisted pasteurization processes. Color, quantified using a * value, was selected as the time-temperature indicator for green pea and garlic puree model foods. Results showed 915 MHz microwaves had a greater penetration depth into the green pea model food than the garlic. a * value reaction rates for the green pea model were approximately 4 times slower than in the garlic model food; slower reaction rates were preferred for the application of model food in this study, that is quality evaluation for a target process of 90 °C for 10 min at the cold spot. Pasteurization validation used the green pea model food and results showed that there were quantifiable differences between the color of the unheated control, hot water pasteurization, and microwave-assisted thermal pasteurization system. Both model foods developed in this research could be utilized for quality assessment and optimization of various thermal pasteurization processes. © 2017 Institute of Food Technologists®.

Ares I Scale Model Acoustic Test Liftoff Acoustic Results and Comparisons

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Counter, Doug; Houston, Janice

2011-01-01

Conclusions: Ares I-X flight data validated the ASMAT LOA results. Ares I Liftoff acoustic environments were verified with scale model test results. Results showed that data book environments were under-conservative for Frustum (Zone 5). Recommendations: Data book environments can be updated with scale model test and flight data. Subscale acoustic model testing useful for future vehicle environment assessments.
Development and Validation of a Safety Climate Scale for Manufacturing Industry

PubMed Central

Ghahramani, Abolfazl; Khalkhali, Hamid R.

2015-01-01

Background This paper describes the development of a scale for measuring safety climate. Methods This study was conducted in six manufacturing companies in Iran. The scale developed through conducting a literature review about the safety climate and constructing a question pool. The number of items was reduced to 71 after performing a screening process. Results The result of content validity analysis showed that 59 items had excellent item content validity index (≥ 0.78) and content validity ratio (> 0.38). The exploratory factor analysis resulted in eight safety climate dimensions. The reliability value for the final 45-item scale was 0.96. The result of confirmatory factor analysis showed that the safety climate model is satisfactory. Conclusion This study produced a valid and reliable scale for measuring safety climate in manufacturing companies. PMID:26106508
A Model for Pharmacological Research-Treatment of Cocaine Dependence

PubMed Central

Montoya, Ivan D.; Hess, Judith M.; Preston, Kenzie L.; Gorelick, David A.

2008-01-01

Major problems for research on pharmacological treatments for cocaine dependence are lack of comparability of results from different treatment research programs and poor validity and/or reliability of results. Double-blind, placebo-controlled, random assignment, experimental designs, using standard intake and assessment procedures help to reduce these problems. Cessation or reduction of drug use and/or craving, retention in treatment, and medical and psychosocial improvement are some of the outcome variables collected in treatment research programs. A model to be followed across different outpatient clinical trials for pharmacological treatment of cocaine dependence is presented here. This model represents an effort to standardize data collection to make results more valid and comparable. PMID:8749725
An Overview of NASA's IM&S Verification and Validation Process Plan and Specification for Space Exploration

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Gravitz, Robert M.; Hale, Joseph

2006-01-01

NASA's Exploration Systems Mission Directorate (ESMD) is implementing a management approach for modeling and simulation (M&S) that will provide decision-makers information on the model's fidelity, credibility, and quality. This information will allow the decision-maker to understand the risks involved in using a model's results in the decision-making process. This presentation will discuss NASA's approach for verification and validation (V&V) of its models or simulations supporting space exploration. This presentation will describe NASA's V&V process and the associated M&S verification and validation (V&V) activities required to support the decision-making process. The M&S V&V Plan and V&V Report templates for ESMD will also be illustrated.
Viability of Cross-Flow Fan with Helical Blades for Vertical Take-off and Landing Aircraft

DTIC Science & Technology

2012-09-01

fluid dynamics (CFD) software, ANSYS - CFX , a three-dimensional (3-D) straight-bladed model was validated against previous study’s experimental results...computational fluid dynamics software (CFD), ANSYS - CFX , a three-dimensional (3-D) straight-bladed model was validated against previous study’s experimental...37 B. SIZING PARAMETERS AND ILLUSTRATION ................................. 37 APPENDIX B. ANSYS CFX PARAMETERS
Numerical studies and metric development for validation of magnetohydrodynamic models on the HIT-SI experiment

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Hansen, C., E-mail: hansec@uw.edu; Columbia University, New York, New York 10027; Victor, B.

We present application of three scalar metrics derived from the Biorthogonal Decomposition (BD) technique to evaluate the level of agreement between macroscopic plasma dynamics in different data sets. BD decomposes large data sets, as produced by distributed diagnostic arrays, into principal mode structures without assumptions on spatial or temporal structure. These metrics have been applied to validation of the Hall-MHD model using experimental data from the Helicity Injected Torus with Steady Inductive helicity injection experiment. Each metric provides a measure of correlation between mode structures extracted from experimental data and simulations for an array of 192 surface-mounted magnetic probes. Numericalmore » validation studies have been performed using the NIMROD code, where the injectors are modeled as boundary conditions on the flux conserver, and the PSI-TET code, where the entire plasma volume is treated. Initial results from a comprehensive validation study of high performance operation with different injector frequencies are presented, illustrating application of the BD method. Using a simplified (constant, uniform density and temperature) Hall-MHD model, simulation results agree with experimental observation for two of the three defined metrics when the injectors are driven with a frequency of 14.5 kHz.« less
Copenhagen Psychosocial Questionnaire - A validation study using the Job Demand-Resources model.

PubMed

Berthelsen, Hanne; Hakanen, Jari J; Westerlund, Hugo

2018-01-01

This study aims at investigating the nomological validity of the Copenhagen Psychosocial Questionnaire (COPSOQ II) by using an extension of the Job Demands-Resources (JD-R) model with aspects of work ability as outcome. The study design is cross-sectional. All staff working at public dental organizations in four regions of Sweden were invited to complete an electronic questionnaire (75% response rate, n = 1345). The questionnaire was based on COPSOQ II scales, the Utrecht Work Engagement scale, and the one-item Work Ability Score in combination with a proprietary item. The data was analysed by Structural Equation Modelling. This study contributed to the literature by showing that: A) The scale characteristics were satisfactory and the construct validity of COPSOQ instrument could be integrated in the JD-R framework; B) Job resources arising from leadership may be a driver of the two processes included in the JD-R model; and C) Both the health impairment and motivational processes were associated with WA, and the results suggested that leadership may impact WA, in particularly by securing task resources. In conclusion, the nomological validity of COPSOQ was supported as the JD-R model-can be operationalized by the instrument. This may be helpful for transferral of complex survey results and work life theories to practitioners in the field.
Validation of High Displacement Piezoelectric Actuator Finite Element Models

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Taleghani, B. K.

2000-01-01

The paper presents the results obtained by using NASTRAN(Registered Trademark) and ANSYS(Regitered Trademark) finite element codes to predict doming of the THUNDER piezoelectric actuators during the manufacturing process and subsequent straining due to an applied input voltage. To effectively use such devices in engineering applications, modeling and characterization are essential. Length, width, dome height, and thickness are important parameters for users of such devices. Therefore, finite element models were used to assess the effects of these parameters. NASTRAN(Registered Trademark) and ANSYS(Registered Trademark) used different methods for modeling piezoelectric effects. In NASTRAN(Registered Trademark), a thermal analogy was used to represent voltage at nodes as equivalent temperatures, while ANSYS(Registered Trademark) processed the voltage directly using piezoelectric finite elements. The results of finite element models were validated by using the experimental results.
Toward Supersonic Retropropulsion CFD Validation

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kleb, Bil; Schauerhamer, D. Guy; Trumble, Kerry; Sozer, Emre; Barnhardt, Michael; Carlson, Jan-Renee; Edquist, Karl

2011-01-01

This paper begins the process of verifying and validating computational fluid dynamics (CFD) codes for supersonic retropropulsive flows. Four CFD codes (DPLR, FUN3D, OVERFLOW, and US3D) are used to perform various numerical and physical modeling studies toward the goal of comparing predictions with a wind tunnel experiment specifically designed to support CFD validation. Numerical studies run the gamut in rigor from code-to-code comparisons to observed order-of-accuracy tests. Results indicate that this complex flowfield, involving time-dependent shocks and vortex shedding, design order of accuracy is not clearly evident. Also explored is the extent of physical modeling necessary to predict the salient flowfield features found in high-speed Schlieren images and surface pressure measurements taken during the validation experiment. Physical modeling studies include geometric items such as wind tunnel wall and sting mount interference, as well as turbulence modeling that ranges from a RANS (Reynolds-Averaged Navier-Stokes) 2-equation model to DES (Detached Eddy Simulation) models. These studies indicate that tunnel wall interference is minimal for the cases investigated; model mounting hardware effects are confined to the aft end of the model; and sparse grid resolution and turbulence modeling can damp or entirely dissipate the unsteadiness of this self-excited flow.
CFD Modeling of Superheated Fuel Sprays

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Raju, M. S.

2008-01-01

An understanding of fuel atomization and vaporization behavior at superheat conditions is identified to be a topic of importance in the design of modern supersonic engines. As a part of the NASA aeronautics initiative, we have undertaken an assessment study to establish baseline accuracy of existing CFD models used in the evaluation of a ashing jet. In a first attempt towards attaining this goal, we have incorporated an existing superheat vaporization model into our spray solution procedure but made some improvements to combine the existing models valid at superheated conditions with the models valid at stable (non-superheat) evaporating conditions. Also, the paper reports some validation results based on the experimental data obtained from the literature for a superheated spray generated by the sudden release of pressurized R134A from a cylindrical nozzle. The predicted profiles for both gas and droplet velocities show a reasonable agreement with the measured data and exhibit a self-similar pattern similar to the correlation reported in the literature. Because of the uncertainty involved in the specification of the initial conditions, we have investigated the effect of initial droplet size distribution on the validation results. The predicted results were found to be sensitive to the initial conditions used for the droplet size specification. However, it was shown that decent droplet size comparisons could be achieved with properly selected initial conditions, For the case considered, it is reasonable to assume that the present vaporization models are capable of providing a reasonable qualitative description for the two-phase jet characteristics generated by a ashing jet. However, there remains some uncertainty with regard to the specification of certain initial spray conditions and there is a need for experimental data on separate gas and liquid temperatures in order to validate the vaporization models based on the Adachi correlation for a liquid involving R134A.
Validating the cross-cultural factor structure and invariance property of the Insomnia Severity Index: evidence based on ordinal EFA and CFA.

PubMed

Chen, Po-Yi; Yang, Chien-Ming; Morin, Charles M

2015-05-01

The purpose of this study is to examine the factor structure of the Insomnia Severity Index (ISI) across samples recruited from different countries. We tried to identify the most appropriate factor model for the ISI and further examined the measurement invariance property of the ISI across samples from different countries. Our analyses included one data set collected from a Taiwanese sample and two data sets obtained from samples in Hong Kong and Canada. The data set collected in Taiwan was analyzed with ordinal exploratory factor analysis (EFA) to obtain the appropriate factor model for the ISI. After that, we conducted a series of confirmatory factor analyses (CFAs), which is a special case of the structural equation model (SEM) that concerns the parameters in the measurement model, to the statistics collected in Canada and Hong Kong. The purposes of these CFA were to cross-validate the result obtained from EFA and further examine the cross-cultural measurement invariance of the ISI. The three-factor model outperforms other models in terms of global fit indices in Taiwan's population. Its external validity is also supported by confirmatory factor analyses. Furthermore, the measurement invariance analyses show that the strong invariance property between the samples from different cultures holds, providing evidence that the ISI results obtained in different cultures are comparable. The factorial validity of the ISI is stable in different populations. More importantly, its invariance property across cultures suggests that the ISI is a valid measure of the insomnia severity construct across countries. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
A Historical Forcing Ice Sheet Model Validation Framework for Greenland

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Price, S. F.; Hoffman, M. J.; Howat, I. M.; Bonin, J. A.; Chambers, D. P.; Kalashnikova, I.; Neumann, T.; Nowicki, S.; Perego, M.; Salinger, A.

2014-12-01

We propose an ice sheet model testing and validation framework for Greenland for the years 2000 to the present. Following Perego et al. (2014), we start with a realistic ice sheet initial condition that is in quasi-equilibrium with climate forcing from the late 1990's. This initial condition is integrated forward in time while simultaneously applying (1) surface mass balance forcing (van Angelen et al., 2013) and (2) outlet glacier flux anomalies, defined using a new dataset of Greenland outlet glacier flux for the past decade (Enderlin et al., 2014). Modeled rates of mass and elevation change are compared directly to remote sensing observations obtained from GRACE and ICESat. Here, we present a detailed description of the proposed validation framework including the ice sheet model and model forcing approach, the model-to-observation comparison process, and initial results comparing model output and observations for the time period 2000-2013.
Validation of Community Models: Identifying Events in Space Weather Model Timelines

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

MacNeice, Peter

2009-01-01

I develop and document a set of procedures which test the quality of predictions of solar wind speed and polarity of the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) made by coupled models of the ambient solar corona and heliosphere. The Wang-Sheeley-Arge (WSA) model is used to illustrate the application of these validation procedures. I present an algorithm which detects transitions of the solar wind from slow to high speed. I also present an algorithm which processes the measured polarity of the outward directed component of the IMF. This removes high-frequency variations to expose the longer-scale changes that reflect IMF sector changes. I apply these algorithms to WSA model predictions made using a small set of photospheric synoptic magnetograms obtained by the Global Oscillation Network Group as input to the model. The results of this preliminary validation of the WSA model (version 1.6) are summarized.
Validating archetypes for the Multiple Sclerosis Functional Composite

PubMed Central

2014-01-01

Background Numerous information models for electronic health records, such as openEHR archetypes are available. The quality of such clinical models is important to guarantee standardised semantics and to facilitate their interoperability. However, validation aspects are not regarded sufficiently yet. The objective of this report is to investigate the feasibility of archetype development and its community-based validation process, presuming that this review process is a practical way to ensure high-quality information models amending the formal reference model definitions. Methods A standard archetype development approach was applied on a case set of three clinical tests for multiple sclerosis assessment: After an analysis of the tests, the obtained data elements were organised and structured. The appropriate archetype class was selected and the data elements were implemented in an iterative refinement process. Clinical and information modelling experts validated the models in a structured review process. Results Four new archetypes were developed and publicly deployed in the openEHR Clinical Knowledge Manager, an online platform provided by the openEHR Foundation. Afterwards, these four archetypes were validated by domain experts in a team review. The review was a formalised process, organised in the Clinical Knowledge Manager. Both, development and review process turned out to be time-consuming tasks, mostly due to difficult selection processes between alternative modelling approaches. The archetype review was a straightforward team process with the goal to validate archetypes pragmatically. Conclusions The quality of medical information models is crucial to guarantee standardised semantic representation in order to improve interoperability. The validation process is a practical way to better harmonise models that diverge due to necessary flexibility left open by the underlying formal reference model definitions. This case study provides evidence that both community- and tool-enabled review processes, structured in the Clinical Knowledge Manager, ensure archetype quality. It offers a pragmatic but feasible way to reduce variation in the representation of clinical information models towards a more unified and interoperable model. PMID:25087081
Multisite external validation of a risk prediction model for the diagnosis of blood stream infections in febrile pediatric oncology patients without severe neutropenia.

PubMed

Esbenshade, Adam J; Zhao, Zhiguo; Aftandilian, Catherine; Saab, Raya; Wattier, Rachel L; Beauchemin, Melissa; Miller, Tamara P; Wilkes, Jennifer J; Kelly, Michael J; Fernbach, Alison; Jeng, Michael; Schwartz, Cindy L; Dvorak, Christopher C; Shyr, Yu; Moons, Karl G M; Sulis, Maria-Luisa; Friedman, Debra L

2017-10-01

Pediatric oncology patients are at an increased risk of invasive bacterial infection due to immunosuppression. The risk of such infection in the absence of severe neutropenia (absolute neutrophil count ≥ 500/μL) is not well established and a validated prediction model for blood stream infection (BSI) risk offers clinical usefulness. A 6-site retrospective external validation was conducted using a previously published risk prediction model for BSI in febrile pediatric oncology patients without severe neutropenia: the Esbenshade/Vanderbilt (EsVan) model. A reduced model (EsVan2) excluding 2 less clinically reliable variables also was created using the initial EsVan model derivative cohort, and was validated using all 5 external validation cohorts. One data set was used only in sensitivity analyses due to missing some variables. From the 5 primary data sets, there were a total of 1197 febrile episodes and 76 episodes of bacteremia. The overall C statistic for predicting bacteremia was 0.695, with a calibration slope of 0.50 for the original model and a calibration slope of 1.0 when recalibration was applied to the model. The model performed better in predicting high-risk bacteremia (gram-negative or Staphylococcus aureus infection) versus BSI alone, with a C statistic of 0.801 and a calibration slope of 0.65. The EsVan2 model outperformed the EsVan model across data sets with a C statistic of 0.733 for predicting BSI and a C statistic of 0.841 for high-risk BSI. The results of this external validation demonstrated that the EsVan and EsVan2 models are able to predict BSI across multiple performance sites and, once validated and implemented prospectively, could assist in decision making in clinical practice. Cancer 2017;123:3781-3790. © 2017 American Cancer Society. © 2017 American Cancer Society.
Plasma Model V&V of Collisionless Electrostatic Shock

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Martin, Robert; Le, Hai; Bilyeu, David; Gildea, Stephen

2014-10-01

A simple 1D electrostatic collisionless shock was selected as an initial validation and verification test case for a new plasma modeling framework under development at the Air Force Research Laboratory's In-Space Propulsion branch (AFRL/RQRS). Cross verification between PIC, Vlasov, and Fluid plasma models within the framework along with expected theoretical results will be shown. The non-equilibrium velocity distributions (VDF) captured by PIC and Vlasov will be compared to each other and the assumed VDF of the fluid model at selected points. Validation against experimental data from the University of California, Los Angeles double-plasma device will also be presented along with current work in progress at AFRL/RQRS towards reproducing the experimental results using higher fidelity diagnostics to help elucidate differences between model results and between the models and original experiment. DISTRIBUTION A: Approved for public release; unlimited distribution; PA (Public Affairs) Clearance Number 14332.
Validation of behave fire behavior predictions in oak savannas

USGS Publications Warehouse

Grabner, Keith W.; Dwyer, John; Cutter, Bruce E.

1997-01-01

Prescribed fire is a valuable tool in the restoration and management of oak savannas. BEHAVE, a fire behavior prediction system developed by the United States Forest Service, can be a useful tool when managing oak savannas with prescribed fire. BEHAVE predictions of fire rate-of-spread and flame length were validated using four standardized fuel models: Fuel Model 1 (short grass), Fuel Model 2 (timber and grass), Fuel Model 3 (tall grass), and Fuel Model 9 (hardwood litter). Also, a customized oak savanna fuel model (COSFM) was created and validated. Results indicate that standardized fuel model 2 and the COSFM reliably estimate mean rate-of-spread (MROS). The COSFM did not appreciably reduce MROS variation when compared to fuel model 2. Fuel models 1, 3, and 9 did not reliably predict MROS. Neither the standardized fuel models nor the COSFM adequately predicted flame lengths. We concluded that standardized fuel model 2 should be used with BEHAVE when predicting fire rates-of-spread in established oak savannas.
Validation of Statistical Predictive Models Meant to Select Melanoma Patients for Sentinel Lymph Node Biopsy

PubMed Central

Sabel, Michael S.; Rice, John D.; Griffith, Kent A.; Lowe, Lori; Wong, Sandra L.; Chang, Alfred E.; Johnson, Timothy M.; Taylor, Jeremy M.G.

2013-01-01

Introduction To identify melanoma patients at sufficiently low risk of nodal metastases who could avoid SLN biopsy (SLNB). Several statistical models have been proposed based upon patient/tumor characteristics, including logistic regression, classification trees, random forests and support vector machines. We sought to validate recently published models meant to predict sentinel node status. Methods We queried our comprehensive, prospectively-collected melanoma database for consecutive melanoma patients undergoing SLNB. Prediction values were estimated based upon 4 published models, calculating the same reported metrics: negative predictive value (NPV), rate of negative predictions (RNP), and false negative rate (FNR). Results Logistic regression performed comparably with our data when considering NPV (89.4% vs. 93.6%); however the model’s specificity was not high enough to significantly reduce the rate of biopsies (SLN reduction rate of 2.9%). When applied to our data, the classification tree produced NPV and reduction in biopsies rates that were lower 87.7% vs. 94.1% and 29.8% vs. 14.3%, respectively. Two published models could not be applied to our data due to model complexity and the use of proprietary software. Conclusions Published models meant to reduce the SLNB rate among patients with melanoma either underperformed when applied to our larger dataset, or could not be validated. Differences in selection criteria and histopathologic interpretation likely resulted in underperformance. Development of statistical predictive models must be created in a clinically applicable manner to allow for both validation and ultimately clinical utility. PMID:21822550
Analytic Modeling of Pressurization and Cryogenic Propellant Conditions for Lunar Landing Vehicle

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Corpening, Jeremy

2010-01-01

This slide presentation reviews the development, validation and application of the model to the Lunar Landing Vehicle. The model named, Computational Propellant and Pressurization Program -- One Dimensional (CPPPO), is used to model in this case cryogenic propellant conditions of the Altair Lunar lander. The validation of CPPPO was accomplished via comparison to an existing analytic model (i.e., ROCETS), flight experiment and ground experiments. The model was used to the Lunar Landing Vehicle perform a parametric analysis on pressurant conditions and to examine the results of unequal tank pressurization and draining for multiple tank designs.
Experimental Errors in QSAR Modeling Sets: What We Can Do and What We Cannot Do.

PubMed

Zhao, Linlin; Wang, Wenyi; Sedykh, Alexander; Zhu, Hao

2017-06-30

Numerous chemical data sets have become available for quantitative structure-activity relationship (QSAR) modeling studies. However, the quality of different data sources may be different based on the nature of experimental protocols. Therefore, potential experimental errors in the modeling sets may lead to the development of poor QSAR models and further affect the predictions of new compounds. In this study, we explored the relationship between the ratio of questionable data in the modeling sets, which was obtained by simulating experimental errors, and the QSAR modeling performance. To this end, we used eight data sets (four continuous endpoints and four categorical endpoints) that have been extensively curated both in-house and by our collaborators to create over 1800 various QSAR models. Each data set was duplicated to create several new modeling sets with different ratios of simulated experimental errors (i.e., randomizing the activities of part of the compounds) in the modeling process. A fivefold cross-validation process was used to evaluate the modeling performance, which deteriorates when the ratio of experimental errors increases. All of the resulting models were also used to predict external sets of new compounds, which were excluded at the beginning of the modeling process. The modeling results showed that the compounds with relatively large prediction errors in cross-validation processes are likely to be those with simulated experimental errors. However, after removing a certain number of compounds with large prediction errors in the cross-validation process, the external predictions of new compounds did not show improvement. Our conclusion is that the QSAR predictions, especially consensus predictions, can identify compounds with potential experimental errors. But removing those compounds by the cross-validation procedure is not a reasonable means to improve model predictivity due to overfitting.

Experimental Errors in QSAR Modeling Sets: What We Can Do and What We Cannot Do

PubMed Central

2017-01-01

Numerous chemical data sets have become available for quantitative structure–activity relationship (QSAR) modeling studies. However, the quality of different data sources may be different based on the nature of experimental protocols. Therefore, potential experimental errors in the modeling sets may lead to the development of poor QSAR models and further affect the predictions of new compounds. In this study, we explored the relationship between the ratio of questionable data in the modeling sets, which was obtained by simulating experimental errors, and the QSAR modeling performance. To this end, we used eight data sets (four continuous endpoints and four categorical endpoints) that have been extensively curated both in-house and by our collaborators to create over 1800 various QSAR models. Each data set was duplicated to create several new modeling sets with different ratios of simulated experimental errors (i.e., randomizing the activities of part of the compounds) in the modeling process. A fivefold cross-validation process was used to evaluate the modeling performance, which deteriorates when the ratio of experimental errors increases. All of the resulting models were also used to predict external sets of new compounds, which were excluded at the beginning of the modeling process. The modeling results showed that the compounds with relatively large prediction errors in cross-validation processes are likely to be those with simulated experimental errors. However, after removing a certain number of compounds with large prediction errors in the cross-validation process, the external predictions of new compounds did not show improvement. Our conclusion is that the QSAR predictions, especially consensus predictions, can identify compounds with potential experimental errors. But removing those compounds by the cross-validation procedure is not a reasonable means to improve model predictivity due to overfitting. PMID:28691113
Testing Pearl Model In Three European Sites

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bouraoui, F.; Bidoglio, G.

The Plant Protection Product Directive (91/414/EEC) stresses the need of validated models to calculate predicted environmental concentrations. The use of models has become an unavoidable step before pesticide registration. In this context, European Commission, and in particular DGVI, set up a FOrum for the Co-ordination of pes- ticide fate models and their USe (FOCUS). In a complementary effort, DG research supported the APECOP project, with one of its objective being the validation and im- provement of existing pesticide fate models. The main topic of research presented here is the validation of the PEARL model for different sites in Europe. The PEARL model, actually used in the Dutch pesticide registration procedure, was validated in three well- instrumented sites: Vredepeel (the Netherlands), Brimstone (UK), and Lanna (Swe- den). A step-wise procedure was used for the validation of the PEARL model. First the water transport module was calibrated, and then the solute transport module, using tracer measurements keeping unchanged the water transport parameters. The Vrede- peel site is characterised by a sandy soil. Fourteen months of measurements were used for the calibration. Two pesticides were applied on the site: bentazone and etho- prophos. PEARL predictions were very satisfactory for both soil moisture content, and pesticide concentration in the soil profile. The Brimstone site is characterised by a cracking clay soil. The calibration was conducted on a time series measurement of 7 years. The validation consisted in comparing predictions and measurement of soil moisture at different soil depths, and in comparing the predicted and measured con- centration of isoproturon in the drainage water. The results, even if in good agreement with the measuremens, highlighted the limitation of the model when the preferential flow becomes a dominant process. PEARL did not reproduce well soil moisture pro- file during summer months, and also under-predicted the arrival of isoproturon to the drains. The Lanna site is characterised by s structured clay soil. PEARL was success- ful in predicting soil moisture profiles and the draining water. PEARL performed well in predicting the soil concentration of bentazone at different depth. However, since PEARL does not consider cracks in the soil, it did not predict well the peak concen- trations of bentazone in the drainage water. Along with the validation results for the three sites, a sensitivity analysis of the model is presented.
The Fruit & Vegetable Screener in the 2000 California Health Interview Survey: Validation Results

Cancer.gov

In this study, multiple 24-hour recalls in conjunction with a measurement error model were used to assess validity. The screeners used in the EATS included additional foods and reported portion sizes.
Factor complexity of crash occurrence: An empirical demonstration using boosted regression trees.

PubMed

Chung, Yi-Shih

2013-12-01

Factor complexity is a characteristic of traffic crashes. This paper proposes a novel method, namely boosted regression trees (BRT), to investigate the complex and nonlinear relationships in high-variance traffic crash data. The Taiwanese 2004-2005 single-vehicle motorcycle crash data are used to demonstrate the utility of BRT. Traditional logistic regression and classification and regression tree (CART) models are also used to compare their estimation results and external validities. Both the in-sample cross-validation and out-of-sample validation results show that an increase in tree complexity provides improved, although declining, classification performance, indicating a limited factor complexity of single-vehicle motorcycle crashes. The effects of crucial variables including geographical, time, and sociodemographic factors explain some fatal crashes. Relatively unique fatal crashes are better approximated by interactive terms, especially combinations of behavioral factors. BRT models generally provide improved transferability than conventional logistic regression and CART models. This study also discusses the implications of the results for devising safety policies. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
Analysis procedures and subjective flight results of a simulator validation and cue fidelity experiment

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Carr, Peter C.; Mckissick, Burnell T.

1988-01-01

A joint experiment to investigate simulator validation and cue fidelity was conducted by the Dryden Flight Research Facility of NASA Ames Research Center (Ames-Dryden) and NASA Langley Research Center. The primary objective was to validate the use of a closed-loop pilot-vehicle mathematical model as an analytical tool for optimizing the tradeoff between simulator fidelity requirements and simulator cost. The validation process includes comparing model predictions with simulation and flight test results to evaluate various hypotheses for differences in motion and visual cues and information transfer. A group of five pilots flew air-to-air tracking maneuvers in the Langley differential maneuvering simulator and visual motion simulator and in an F-14 aircraft at Ames-Dryden. The simulators used motion and visual cueing devices including a g-seat, a helmet loader, wide field-of-view horizon, and a motion base platform.
Development and validation of a risk-prediction nomogram for in-hospital mortality in adults poisoned with drugs and nonpharmaceutical agents

PubMed Central

Lionte, Catalina; Sorodoc, Victorita; Jaba, Elisabeta; Botezat, Alina

2017-01-01

Abstract Acute poisoning with drugs and nonpharmaceutical agents represents an important challenge in the emergency department (ED). The objective is to create and validate a risk-prediction nomogram for use in the ED to predict the risk of in-hospital mortality in adults from acute poisoning with drugs and nonpharmaceutical agents. This was a prospective cohort study involving adults with acute poisoning from drugs and nonpharmaceutical agents admitted to a tertiary referral center for toxicology between January and December 2015 (derivation cohort) and between January and June 2016 (validation cohort). We used a program to generate nomograms based on binary logistic regression predictive models. We included variables that had significant associations with death. Using regression coefficients, we calculated scores for each variable, and estimated the event probability. Model validation was performed using bootstrap to quantify our modeling strategy and using receiver operator characteristic (ROC) analysis. The nomogram was tested on a separate validation cohort using ROC analysis and goodness-of-fit tests. Data from 315 patients aged 18 to 91 years were analyzed (n = 180 in the derivation cohort; n = 135 in the validation cohort). In the final model, the following variables were significantly associated with mortality: age, laboratory test results (lactate, potassium, MB isoenzyme of creatine kinase), electrocardiogram parameters (QTc interval), and echocardiography findings (E wave velocity deceleration time). Sex was also included to use the same model for men and women. The resulting nomogram showed excellent survival/mortality discrimination (area under the curve [AUC] 0.976, 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.954–0.998, P < 0.0001 for the derivation cohort; AUC 0.957, 95% CI 0.892–1, P < 0.0001 for the validation cohort). This nomogram provides more precise, rapid, and simple risk-analysis information for individual patients acutely exposed to drugs and nonpharmaceutical agents, and accurately estimates the probability of in-hospital death, exclusively using the results of objective tests available in the ED. PMID:28328838
The Validity and Utility of the California Family Risk Assessment under Practice Conditions in the Field: A Prospective Study

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Johnson, Will L.

2011-01-01

Objective: Analysis of the validity and implementation of a child maltreatment actuarial risk assessment model, the California Family Risk Assessment (CFRA). Questions addressed: (1) Is there evidence of the validity of the CFRA under field operating conditions? (2) Do actuarial risk assessment results influence child welfare workers' service…
Independent data validation of an in vitro method for ...

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

In vitro bioaccessibility assays (IVBA) estimate arsenic (As) relative bioavailability (RBA) in contaminated soils to improve the accuracy of site-specific human exposure assessments and risk calculations. For an IVBA assay to gain acceptance for use in risk assessment, it must be shown to reliably predict in vivo RBA that is determined in an established animal model. Previous studies correlating soil As IVBA with RBA have been limited by the use of few soil types as the source of As. Furthermore, the predictive value of As IVBA assays has not been validated using an independent set of As-contaminated soils. Therefore, the current study was undertaken to develop a robust linear model to predict As RBA in mice using an IVBA assay and to independently validate the predictive capability of this assay using a unique set of As-contaminated soils. Thirty-six As-contaminated soils varying in soil type, As contaminant source, and As concentration were included in this study, with 27 soils used for initial model development and nine soils used for independent model validation. The initial model reliably predicted As RBA values in the independent data set, with a mean As RBA prediction error of 5.3% (range 2.4 to 8.4%). Following validation, all 36 soils were used for final model development, resulting in a linear model with the equation: RBA = 0.59 * IVBA + 9.8 and R2 of 0.78. The in vivo-in vitro correlation and independent data validation presented here provide
Development and validation of risk models to predict outcomes following in-hospital cardiac arrest attended by a hospital-based resuscitation team☆

PubMed Central

Harrison, David A.; Patel, Krishna; Nixon, Edel; Soar, Jasmeet; Smith, Gary B.; Gwinnutt, Carl; Nolan, Jerry P.; Rowan, Kathryn M.

2014-01-01

Aim The National Cardiac Arrest Audit (NCAA) is the UK national clinical audit for in-hospital cardiac arrest. To make fair comparisons among health care providers, clinical indicators require case mix adjustment using a validated risk model. The aim of this study was to develop and validate risk models to predict outcomes following in-hospital cardiac arrest attended by a hospital-based resuscitation team in UK hospitals. Methods Risk models for two outcomes—return of spontaneous circulation (ROSC) for greater than 20 min and survival to hospital discharge—were developed and validated using data for in-hospital cardiac arrests between April 2011 and March 2013. For each outcome, a full model was fitted and then simplified by testing for non-linearity, combining categories and stepwise reduction. Finally, interactions between predictors were considered. Models were assessed for discrimination, calibration and accuracy. Results 22,479 in-hospital cardiac arrests in 143 hospitals were included (14,688 development, 7791 validation). The final risk model for ROSC > 20 min included: age (non-linear), sex, prior length of stay in hospital, reason for attendance, location of arrest, presenting rhythm, and interactions between presenting rhythm and location of arrest. The model for hospital survival included the same predictors, excluding sex. Both models had acceptable performance across the range of measures, although discrimination for hospital mortality exceeded that for ROSC > 20 min (c index 0.81 versus 0.72). Conclusions Validated risk models for ROSC > 20 min and hospital survival following in-hospital cardiac arrest have been developed. These models will strengthen comparative reporting in NCAA and support local quality improvement. PMID:24830872
Models of protein–ligand crystal structures: trust, but verify

PubMed Central

Deller, Marc C.

2015-01-01

X-ray crystallography provides the most accurate models of protein–ligand structures. These models serve as the foundation of many computational methods including structure prediction, molecular modelling, and structure-based drug design. The success of these computational methods ultimately depends on the quality of the underlying protein–ligand models. X-ray crystallography offers the unparalleled advantage of a clear mathematical formalism relating the experimental data to the protein–ligand model. In the case of X-ray crystallography, the primary experimental evidence is the electron density of the molecules forming the crystal. The first step in the generation of an accurate and precise crystallographic model is the interpretation of the electron density of the crystal, typically carried out by construction of an atomic model. The atomic model must then be validated for fit to the experimental electron density and also for agreement with prior expectations of stereochemistry. Stringent validation of protein–ligand models has become possible as a result of the mandatory deposition of primary diffraction data, and many computational tools are now available to aid in the validation process. Validation of protein–ligand complexes has revealed some instances of overenthusiastic interpretation of ligand density. Fundamental concepts and metrics of protein–ligand quality validation are discussed and we highlight software tools to assist in this process. It is essential that end users select high quality protein–ligand models for their computational and biological studies, and we provide an overview of how this can be achieved. PMID:25665575
Models of protein-ligand crystal structures: trust, but verify.

PubMed

Deller, Marc C; Rupp, Bernhard

2015-09-01

X-ray crystallography provides the most accurate models of protein-ligand structures. These models serve as the foundation of many computational methods including structure prediction, molecular modelling, and structure-based drug design. The success of these computational methods ultimately depends on the quality of the underlying protein-ligand models. X-ray crystallography offers the unparalleled advantage of a clear mathematical formalism relating the experimental data to the protein-ligand model. In the case of X-ray crystallography, the primary experimental evidence is the electron density of the molecules forming the crystal. The first step in the generation of an accurate and precise crystallographic model is the interpretation of the electron density of the crystal, typically carried out by construction of an atomic model. The atomic model must then be validated for fit to the experimental electron density and also for agreement with prior expectations of stereochemistry. Stringent validation of protein-ligand models has become possible as a result of the mandatory deposition of primary diffraction data, and many computational tools are now available to aid in the validation process. Validation of protein-ligand complexes has revealed some instances of overenthusiastic interpretation of ligand density. Fundamental concepts and metrics of protein-ligand quality validation are discussed and we highlight software tools to assist in this process. It is essential that end users select high quality protein-ligand models for their computational and biological studies, and we provide an overview of how this can be achieved.
Agricultural Policy Environmental eXtender Simulation of Three Adjacent Row-Crop Watersheds in the Claypan Region.

PubMed

Anomaa Senaviratne, G M M M; Udawatta, Ranjith P; Baffaut, Claire; Anderson, Stephen H

2013-01-01

The Agricultural Policy Environmental Extender (APEX) model is used to evaluate best management practices on pollutant loading in whole farms or small watersheds. The objectives of this study were to conduct a sensitivity analysis to determine the effect of model parameters on APEX output and use the parameterized, calibrated, and validated model to evaluate long-term benefits of grass waterways. The APEX model was used to model three (East, Center, and West) adjacent field-size watersheds with claypan soils under a no-till corn ( L.)/soybean [ (L.) Merr.] rotation. Twenty-seven parameters were sensitive for crop yield, runoff, sediment, nitrogen (dissolved and total), and phosphorous (dissolved and total) simulations. The model was calibrated using measured event-based data from the Center watershed from 1993 to 1997 and validated with data from the West and East watersheds. Simulated crop yields were within ±13% of the measured yield. The model performance for event-based runoff was excellent, with calibration and validation > 0.9 and Nash-Sutcliffe coefficients (NSC) > 0.8, respectively. Sediment and total nitrogen calibration results were satisfactory for larger rainfall events (>50 mm), with > 0.5 and NSC > 0.4, but validation results remained poor, with NSC between 0.18 and 0.3. Total phosphorous was well calibrated and validated, with > 0.8 and NSC > 0.7, respectively. The presence of grass waterways reduced annual total phosphorus loadings by 13 to 25%. The replicated study indicates that APEX provides a convenient and efficient tool to evaluate long-term benefits of conservation practices. Copyright © by the American Society of Agronomy, Crop Science Society of America, and Soil Science Society of America, Inc.
VAVUQ, Python and Matlab freeware for Verification and Validation, Uncertainty Quantification

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Courtney, J. E.; Zamani, K.; Bombardelli, F. A.; Fleenor, W. E.

2015-12-01

A package of scripts is presented for automated Verification and Validation (V&V) and Uncertainty Quantification (UQ) for engineering codes that approximate Partial Differential Equations (PDFs). The code post-processes model results to produce V&V and UQ information. This information can be used to assess model performance. Automated information on code performance can allow for a systematic methodology to assess the quality of model approximations. The software implements common and accepted code verification schemes. The software uses the Method of Manufactured Solutions (MMS), the Method of Exact Solution (MES), Cross-Code Verification, and Richardson Extrapolation (RE) for solution (calculation) verification. It also includes common statistical measures that can be used for model skill assessment. Complete RE can be conducted for complex geometries by implementing high-order non-oscillating numerical interpolation schemes within the software. Model approximation uncertainty is quantified by calculating lower and upper bounds of numerical error from the RE results. The software is also able to calculate the Grid Convergence Index (GCI), and to handle adaptive meshes and models that implement mixed order schemes. Four examples are provided to demonstrate the use of the software for code and solution verification, model validation and uncertainty quantification. The software is used for code verification of a mixed-order compact difference heat transport solver; the solution verification of a 2D shallow-water-wave solver for tidal flow modeling in estuaries; the model validation of a two-phase flow computation in a hydraulic jump compared to experimental data; and numerical uncertainty quantification for 3D CFD modeling of the flow patterns in a Gust erosion chamber.
Model Validation for Propulsion - On the TFNS and LES Subgrid Models for a Bluff Body Stabilized Flame

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Wey, Thomas

2017-01-01

This paper summarizes the reacting results of simulating a bluff body stabilized flame experiment of Volvo Validation Rig using a releasable edition of the National Combustion Code (NCC). The turbulence models selected to investigate the configuration are the sub-grid scaled kinetic energy coupled large eddy simulation (K-LES) and the time-filtered Navier-Stokes (TFNS) simulation. The turbulence chemistry interaction used is linear eddy mixing (LEM).
A model of fluid and solute exchange in the human: validation and implications.

PubMed

Bert, J L; Gyenge, C C; Bowen, B D; Reed, R K; Lund, T

2000-11-01

In order to understand better the complex, dynamic behaviour of the redistribution and exchange of fluid and solutes administered to normal individuals or to those with acute hypovolemia, mathematical models are used in addition to direct experimental investigation. Initial validation of a model developed by our group involved data from animal experiments (Gyenge, C.C., Bowen, B.D., Reed, R.K. & Bert, J.L. 1999b. Am J Physiol 277 (Heart Circ Physiol 46), H1228-H1240). For a first validation involving humans, we compare the results of simulations with a wide range of different types of data from two experimental studies. These studies involved administration of normal saline or hypertonic saline with Dextran to both normal and 10% haemorrhaged subjects. We compared simulations with data including the dynamic changes in plasma and interstitial fluid volumes VPL and VIT respectively, plasma and interstitial colloid osmotic pressures PiPL and PiIT respectively, haematocrit (Hct), plasma solute concentrations and transcapillary flow rates. The model predictions were overall in very good agreement with the wide range of experimental results considered. Based on the conditions investigated, the model was also validated for humans. We used the model both to investigate mechanisms associated with the redistribution and transport of fluid and solutes administered following a mild haemorrhage and to speculate on the relationship between the timing and amount of fluid infusions and subsequent blood volume expansion.
Elasto-dynamic analysis of a gear pump-Part III: Experimental validation procedure and model extension to helical gears

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mucchi, E.; Dalpiaz, G.

2015-01-01

This work concerns external gear pumps for automotive applications, which operate at high speed and low pressure. In previous works of the authors (Part I and II, [1,2]), a non-linear lumped-parameter kineto-elastodynamic model for the prediction of the dynamic behaviour of external gear pumps was presented. It takes into account the most important phenomena involved in the operation of this kind of machine. The two main sources of noise and vibration are considered: pressure pulsation and gear meshing. The model has been used in order to foresee the influence of working conditions and design modifications on vibration generation. The model's experimental validation is a difficult task. Thus, Part III proposes a novel methodology for the validation carried out by the comparison of simulations and experimental results concerning forces and moments: it deals with the external and inertial components acting on the gears, estimated by the model, and the reactions and inertial components on the pump casing and the test plate, obtained by measurements. The validation is carried out comparing the level of the time synchronous average in the time domain and the waterfall maps in the frequency domain, with particular attention to identify system resonances. The validation results are satisfactory globally, but discrepancies are still present. Moreover, the assessed model has been properly modified for the application to a new virtual pump prototype with helical gears in order to foresee gear accelerations and dynamic forces. Part IV is focused on improvements in the modelling and analysis of the phenomena bound to the pressure evolution around the gears in order to achieve results closer to the measured values. As a matter of fact, the simulation results have shown that a variable meshing stiffness has a notable contribution on the dynamic behaviour of the pump but this is not as important as the pressure phenomena. As a consequence, the original model was modified with the aim at improving the calculation of pressure forces and torques. The improved pressure formulation includes several phenomena not considered in the previous one, such as the variable pressure evolution at input and output ports, as well as an accurate description of the trapped volume and its connections with high and low pressure chambers. The importance of these improvements are highlighted by comparison with experimental results, showing satisfactory matching.
Validation of Model Output versus ADCP Observations on the PR Insular Shelf, Part 2: Are all Sites the Same?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ramos Valle, A.

2016-02-01

We have previously compared the output from three oceanographic models against observed data from an ADCP at a common grid point location on the zonally oriented, southwestern Puerto Rico shelf that extends into the northern Caribbean Sea. The three models were: 1) AMSEAS (NCOM), 2) Regional ROMS and 3) a higher resolution version of ROMS nested within the Regional ROMS. These models faced great difficulty in accurately depicting the bathymetry of the ocean in the PR-USVI archipelago which is characterized by small islands, narrow insular shelves, steep slopes and deep water beyond. The resulting validations of the three models versus the ADCP at the selected location were poor. However, the insight we gained into the behavior of the models during the validation process suggested that models might do a better job at simulating currents across the inter-island straits that connect the Atlantic Ocean with the Caribbean Sea than along the insular Caribbean or Atlantic coastlines. We therefore focused our attention on expanding our previous research by performing a similar analysis using the ROMS model against ADCP observations in the Mona Passage, west of PR. This new ADCP location exhibits bathymetric features that are smoother, less complex, and better represented in the Regional ROMS model while flows at the site are stronger than at the previous ADCP site at La Parguera. Statistical time-series analyses are performed on model and ADCP flow velocity time series to quantify the model's skill. Results indicate that ROMS does a much better job at simulating ocean currents at the Mona Passage site than at La Parguera. Dynamical and numerical differences that might explain the spatially varying model skill are considered. In summary: model skill validation sites around PR are not all the same.
Does rational selection of training and test sets improve the outcome of QSAR modeling?

PubMed

Martin, Todd M; Harten, Paul; Young, Douglas M; Muratov, Eugene N; Golbraikh, Alexander; Zhu, Hao; Tropsha, Alexander

2012-10-22

Prior to using a quantitative structure activity relationship (QSAR) model for external predictions, its predictive power should be established and validated. In the absence of a true external data set, the best way to validate the predictive ability of a model is to perform its statistical external validation. In statistical external validation, the overall data set is divided into training and test sets. Commonly, this splitting is performed using random division. Rational splitting methods can divide data sets into training and test sets in an intelligent fashion. The purpose of this study was to determine whether rational division methods lead to more predictive models compared to random division. A special data splitting procedure was used to facilitate the comparison between random and rational division methods. For each toxicity end point, the overall data set was divided into a modeling set (80% of the overall set) and an external evaluation set (20% of the overall set) using random division. The modeling set was then subdivided into a training set (80% of the modeling set) and a test set (20% of the modeling set) using rational division methods and by using random division. The Kennard-Stone, minimal test set dissimilarity, and sphere exclusion algorithms were used as the rational division methods. The hierarchical clustering, random forest, and k-nearest neighbor (kNN) methods were used to develop QSAR models based on the training sets. For kNN QSAR, multiple training and test sets were generated, and multiple QSAR models were built. The results of this study indicate that models based on rational division methods generate better statistical results for the test sets than models based on random division, but the predictive power of both types of models are comparable.
R package PRIMsrc: Bump Hunting by Patient Rule Induction Method for Survival, Regression and Classification

PubMed Central

Dazard, Jean-Eudes; Choe, Michael; LeBlanc, Michael; Rao, J. Sunil

2015-01-01

PRIMsrc is a novel implementation of a non-parametric bump hunting procedure, based on the Patient Rule Induction Method (PRIM), offering a unified treatment of outcome variables, including censored time-to-event (Survival), continuous (Regression) and discrete (Classification) responses. To fit the model, it uses a recursive peeling procedure with specific peeling criteria and stopping rules depending on the response. To validate the model, it provides an objective function based on prediction-error or other specific statistic, as well as two alternative cross-validation techniques, adapted to the task of decision-rule making and estimation in the three types of settings. PRIMsrc comes as an open source R package, including at this point: (i) a main function for fitting a Survival Bump Hunting model with various options allowing cross-validated model selection to control model size (#covariates) and model complexity (#peeling steps) and generation of cross-validated end-point estimates; (ii) parallel computing; (iii) various S3-generic and specific plotting functions for data visualization, diagnostic, prediction, summary and display of results. It is available on CRAN and GitHub. PMID:26798326
Simulation validation of the XV-15 tilt-rotor research aircraft

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Ferguson, S. W.; Hanson, G. D.; Churchill, G. B.

1984-01-01

The results of a simulation validation program of the XV-15 tilt-rotor research aircraft are detailed, covering such simulation aspects as the mathematical model, visual system, motion system, cab aural system, cab control loader system, pilot perceptual fidelity, and generic tilt rotor applications. Simulation validation was performed for the hover, low-speed, and sideward flight modes, with consideration of the in-ground rotor effect. Several deficiencies of the mathematical model and the simulation systems were identified in the course of the simulation validation project, and some were corrected. It is noted that NASA's Vertical Motion Simulator used in the program is an excellent tool for tilt-rotor and rotorcraft design, development, and pilot training.

Clinical prognostic rules for severe acute respiratory syndrome in low- and high-resource settings.

PubMed

Cowling, Benjamin J; Muller, Matthew P; Wong, Irene O L; Ho, Lai-Ming; Lo, Su-Vui; Tsang, Thomas; Lam, Tai Hing; Louie, Marie; Leung, Gabriel M

2006-07-24

An accurate prognostic model for patients with severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) could provide a practical clinical decision aid. We developed and validated prognostic rules for both high- and low-resource settings based on data available at the time of admission. We analyzed data on all 1755 and 291 patients with SARS in Hong Kong (derivation cohort) and Toronto (validation cohort), respectively, using a multivariable logistic scoring method with internal and external validation. Scores were assigned on the basis of patient history in a basic model, and a full model additionally incorporated radiological and laboratory results. The main outcome measure was death. Predictors for mortality in the basic model included older age, male sex, and the presence of comorbid conditions. Additional predictors in the full model included haziness or infiltrates on chest radiography, less than 95% oxygen saturation on room air, high lactate dehydrogenase level, and high neutrophil and low platelet counts. The basic model had an area under the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve of 0.860 in the derivation cohort, which was maintained on external validation with an area under the ROC curve of 0.882. The full model improved discrimination with areas under the ROC curve of 0.877 and 0.892 in the derivation and validation cohorts, respectively. The model performs well and could be useful in assessing prognosis for patients who are infected with re-emergent SARS.
Alternative methods to determine headwater benefits

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Bao, Y.S.; Perlack, R.D.; Sale, M.J.

1997-11-10

In 1992, the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC) began using a Flow Duration Analysis (FDA) methodology to assess headwater benefits in river basins where use of the Headwater Benefits Energy Gains (HWBEG) model may not result in significant improvements in modeling accuracy. The purpose of this study is to validate the accuracy and appropriateness of the FDA method for determining energy gains in less complex basins. This report presents the results of Oak Ridge National Laboratory`s (ORNL`s) validation of the FDA method. The validation is based on a comparison of energy gains using the FDA method with energy gains calculatedmore » using the MWBEG model. Comparisons of energy gains are made on a daily and monthly basis for a complex river basin (the Alabama River Basin) and a basin that is considered relatively simple hydrologically (the Stanislaus River Basin). In addition to validating the FDA method, ORNL was asked to suggest refinements and improvements to the FDA method. Refinements and improvements to the FDA method were carried out using the James River Basin as a test case.« less
Use of Latent Class Analysis to define groups based on validity, cognition, and emotional functioning.

PubMed

Morin, Ruth T; Axelrod, Bradley N

Latent Class Analysis (LCA) was used to classify a heterogeneous sample of neuropsychology data. In particular, we used measures of performance validity, symptom validity, cognition, and emotional functioning to assess and describe latent groups of functioning in these areas. A data-set of 680 neuropsychological evaluation protocols was analyzed using a LCA. Data were collected from evaluations performed for clinical purposes at an urban medical center. A four-class model emerged as the best fitting model of latent classes. The resulting classes were distinct based on measures of performance validity and symptom validity. Class A performed poorly on both performance and symptom validity measures. Class B had intact performance validity and heightened symptom reporting. The remaining two Classes performed adequately on both performance and symptom validity measures, differing only in cognitive and emotional functioning. In general, performance invalidity was associated with worse cognitive performance, while symptom invalidity was associated with elevated emotional distress. LCA appears useful in identifying groups within a heterogeneous sample with distinct performance patterns. Further, the orthogonal nature of performance and symptom validities is supported.
Laparoscopic Common Bile Duct Exploration Four-Task Training Model: Construct Validity

PubMed Central

Otaño, Natalia; Rodríguez, Omaira; Sánchez, Renata; Benítez, Gustavo; Schweitzer, Michael

2012-01-01

Background: Training models in laparoscopic surgery allow the surgical team to practice procedures in a safe environment. We have proposed the use of a 4-task, low-cost inert model to practice critical steps of laparoscopic common bile duct exploration. Methods: The performance of 3 groups with different levels of expertise in laparoscopic surgery, novices (A), intermediates (B), and experts (C), was evaluated using a low-cost inert model in the following tasks: (1) intraoperative cholangiography catheter insertion, (2) transcystic exploration, (3) T-tube placement, and (4) choledochoscope management. Kruskal-Wallis and Mann-Whitney tests were used to identify differences among the groups. Results: A total of 14 individuals were evaluated: 5 novices (A), 5 intermediates (B), and 4 experts (C). The results involving intraoperative cholangiography catheter insertion were similar among the 3 groups. As for the other tasks, the expert had better results than the other 2, in which no significant differences occurred. The proposed model is able to discriminate among individuals with different levels of expertise, indicating that the abilities that the model evaluates are relevant in the surgeon's performance in CBD exploration. Conclusions: Construct validity for tasks 2 and 3 was demonstrated. However, task 1 was no capable of distinguishing between groups, and task 4 was not statistically validated. PMID:22906323
Psychometric Properties and Factor Structure of the German Version of the Clinician-Administered PTSD Scale for DSM-5.

PubMed

Müller-Engelmann, Meike; Schnyder, Ulrich; Dittmann, Clara; Priebe, Kathlen; Bohus, Martin; Thome, Janine; Fydrich, Thomas; Pfaltz, Monique C; Steil, Regina

2018-05-01

The Clinician-Administered PTSD Scale (CAPS) is a widely used diagnostic interview for posttraumatic stress disorder (PTSD). Following fundamental modifications in the Diagnostic and Statistical Manual of Mental Disorders, Fifth Edition ( DSM-5), the CAPS had to be revised. This study examined the psychometric properties (internal consistency, interrater reliability, convergent and discriminant validity, and structural validity) of the German version of the CAPS-5 in a trauma-exposed sample ( n = 223 with PTSD; n =51 without PTSD). The results demonstrated high internal consistency (αs = .65-.93) and high interrater reliability (ICCs = .81-.89). With regard to convergent and discriminant validity, we found high correlations between the CAPS severity score and both the Posttraumatic Diagnostic Scale sum score ( r = .87) and the Beck Depression Inventory total score ( r = .72). Regarding the underlying factor structure, the hybrid model demonstrated the best fit, followed by the anhedonia model. However, we encountered some nonpositive estimates for the correlations of the latent variables (factors) for both models. The model with the best fit without methodological problems was the externalizing behaviors model, but the results also supported the DSM-5 model. Overall, the results demonstrate that the German version of the CAPS-5 is a psychometrically sound measure.
Study on rapid valid acidity evaluation of apple by fiber optic diffuse reflectance technique

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liu, Yande; Ying, Yibin; Fu, Xiaping; Jiang, Xuesong

2004-03-01

Some issues related to nondestructive evaluation of valid acidity in intact apples by means of Fourier transform near infrared (FTNIR) (800-2631nm) method were addressed. A relationship was established between the diffuse reflectance spectra recorded with a bifurcated optic fiber and the valid acidity. The data were analyzed by multivariate calibration analysis such as partial least squares (PLS) analysis and principal component regression (PCR) technique. A total of 120 Fuji apples were tested and 80 of them were used to form a calibration data set. The influence of data preprocessing and different spectra treatments were also investigated. Models based on smoothing spectra were slightly worse than models based on derivative spectra and the best result was obtained when the segment length was 5 and the gap size was 10. Depending on data preprocessing and multivariate calibration technique, the best prediction model had a correlation efficient (0.871), a low RMSEP (0.0677), a low RMSEC (0.056) and a small difference between RMSEP and RMSEC by PLS analysis. The results point out the feasibility of FTNIR spectral analysis to predict the fruit valid acidity non-destructively. The ratio of data standard deviation to the root mean square error of prediction (SDR) is better to be less than 3 in calibration models, however, the results cannot meet the demand of actual application. Therefore, further study is required for better calibration and prediction.
Barotropic Tidal Predictions and Validation in a Relocatable Modeling Environment. Revised

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Mehra, Avichal; Passi, Ranjit; Kantha, Lakshmi; Payne, Steven; Brahmachari, Shuvobroto

1998-01-01

Under funding from the Office of Naval Research (ONR), and the Naval Oceanographic Office (NAVOCEANO), the Mississippi State University Center for Air Sea Technology (CAST) has been working on developing a Relocatable Modeling Environment(RME) to provide a uniform and unbiased infrastructure for efficiently configuring numerical models in any geographic/oceanic region. Under Naval Oceanographic Office (NAVO-CEANO) funding, the model was implemented and tested for NAVOCEANO use. With our current emphasis on ocean tidal modeling, CAST has adopted the Colorado University's numerical ocean model, known as CURReNTSS (Colorado University Rapidly Relocatable Nestable Storm Surge) Model, as the model of choice. During the RME development process, CURReNTSS has been relocated to several coastal oceanic regions, providing excellent results that demonstrate its veracity. This report documents the model validation results and provides a brief description of the Graphic user Interface (GUI).
Validation of numerical model for cook stove using Reynolds averaged Navier-Stokes based solver

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Islam, Md. Moinul; Hasan, Md. Abdullah Al; Rahman, Md. Mominur; Rahaman, Md. Mashiur

2017-12-01

Biomass fired cook stoves, for many years, have been the main cooking appliance for the rural people of developing countries. Several researches have been carried out to the find efficient stoves. In the present study, numerical model of an improved household cook stove is developed to analyze the heat transfer and flow behavior of gas during operation. The numerical model is validated with the experimental results. Computation of the numerical model is executed the using non-premixed combustion model. Reynold's averaged Navier-Stokes (RaNS) equation along with the κ - ɛ model governed the turbulent flow associated within the computed domain. The computational results are in well agreement with the experiment. Developed numerical model can be used to predict the effect of different biomasses on the efficiency of the cook stove.
ASTER Global Digital Elevation Model Version 2 - summary of validation results

USGS Publications Warehouse

Tachikawa, Tetushi; Kaku, Manabu; Iwasaki, Akira; Gesch, Dean B.; Oimoen, Michael J.; Zhang, Z.; Danielson, Jeffrey J.; Krieger, Tabatha; Curtis, Bill; Haase, Jeff; Abrams, Michael; Carabajal, C.; Meyer, Dave

2011-01-01

Based on these findings, the GDEM validation team recommends the release of the GDEM2 to the public, acknowledging that, while vastly improved, some artifacts still exist which could affect its utility in certain applications.
Model-based clinical dose optimization for phenobarbital in neonates: An illustration of the importance of data sharing and external validation.

PubMed

Völler, Swantje; Flint, Robert B; Stolk, Leo M; Degraeuwe, Pieter L J; Simons, Sinno H P; Pokorna, Paula; Burger, David M; de Groot, Ronald; Tibboel, Dick; Knibbe, Catherijne A J

2017-11-15

Particularly in the pediatric clinical pharmacology field, data-sharing offers the possibility of making the most of all available data. In this study, we utilize previously collected therapeutic drug monitoring (TDM) data of term and preterm newborns to develop a population pharmacokinetic model for phenobarbital. We externally validate the model using prospective phenobarbital data from an ongoing pharmacokinetic study in preterm neonates. TDM data from 53 neonates (gestational age (GA): 37 (24-42) weeks, bodyweight: 2.7 (0.45-4.5) kg; postnatal age (PNA): 4.5 (0-22) days) contained information on dosage histories, concentration and covariate data (including birth weight, actual weight, post-natal age (PNA), postmenstrual age, GA, sex, liver and kidney function, APGAR-score). Model development was carried out using NONMEM ® 7.3. After assessment of model fit, the model was validated using data of 17 neonates included in the DINO (Drug dosage Improvement in NeOnates)-study. Modelling of 229 plasma concentrations, ranging from 3.2 to 75.2mg/L, resulted in a one compartment model for phenobarbital. Clearance (CL) and volume (V d ) for a child with a birthweight of 2.6kg at PNA day 4.5 was 0.0091L/h (9%) and 2.38L (5%), respectively. Birthweight and PNA were the best predictors for CL maturation, increasing CL by 36.7% per kg birthweight and 5.3% per postnatal day of living, respectively. The best predictor for the increase in V d was actual bodyweight (0.31L/kg). External validation showed that the model can adequately predict the pharmacokinetics in a prospective study. Data-sharing can help to successfully develop and validate population pharmacokinetic models in neonates. From the results it seems that both PNA and bodyweight are required to guide dosing of phenobarbital in term and preterm neonates. Copyright © 2017 The Authors. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
Nomogram predicting response after chemoradiotherapy in rectal cancer using sequential PETCT imaging: a multicentric prospective study with external validation.

PubMed

van Stiphout, Ruud G P M; Valentini, Vincenzo; Buijsen, Jeroen; Lammering, Guido; Meldolesi, Elisa; van Soest, Johan; Leccisotti, Lucia; Giordano, Alessandro; Gambacorta, Maria A; Dekker, Andre; Lambin, Philippe

2014-11-01

To develop and externally validate a predictive model for pathologic complete response (pCR) for locally advanced rectal cancer (LARC) based on clinical features and early sequential (18)F-FDG PETCT imaging. Prospective data (i.a. THUNDER trial) were used to train (N=112, MAASTRO Clinic) and validate (N=78, Università Cattolica del S. Cuore) the model for pCR (ypT0N0). All patients received long-course chemoradiotherapy (CRT) and surgery. Clinical parameters were age, gender, clinical tumour (cT) stage and clinical nodal (cN) stage. PET parameters were SUVmax, SUVmean, metabolic tumour volume (MTV) and maximal tumour diameter, for which response indices between pre-treatment and intermediate scan were calculated. Using multivariate logistic regression, three probability groups for pCR were defined. The pCR rates were 21.4% (training) and 23.1% (validation). The selected predictive features for pCR were cT-stage, cN-stage, response index of SUVmean and maximal tumour diameter during treatment. The models' performances (AUC) were 0.78 (training) and 0.70 (validation). The high probability group for pCR resulted in 100% correct predictions for training and 67% for validation. The model is available on the website www.predictcancer.org. The developed predictive model for pCR is accurate and externally validated. This model may assist in treatment decisions during CRT to select complete responders for a wait-and-see policy, good responders for extra RT boost and bad responders for additional chemotherapy. Copyright © 2014 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ireland Ltd.. All rights reserved.
RRegrs: an R package for computer-aided model selection with multiple regression models.

PubMed

Tsiliki, Georgia; Munteanu, Cristian R; Seoane, Jose A; Fernandez-Lozano, Carlos; Sarimveis, Haralambos; Willighagen, Egon L

2015-01-01

Predictive regression models can be created with many different modelling approaches. Choices need to be made for data set splitting, cross-validation methods, specific regression parameters and best model criteria, as they all affect the accuracy and efficiency of the produced predictive models, and therefore, raising model reproducibility and comparison issues. Cheminformatics and bioinformatics are extensively using predictive modelling and exhibit a need for standardization of these methodologies in order to assist model selection and speed up the process of predictive model development. A tool accessible to all users, irrespectively of their statistical knowledge, would be valuable if it tests several simple and complex regression models and validation schemes, produce unified reports, and offer the option to be integrated into more extensive studies. Additionally, such methodology should be implemented as a free programming package, in order to be continuously adapted and redistributed by others. We propose an integrated framework for creating multiple regression models, called RRegrs. The tool offers the option of ten simple and complex regression methods combined with repeated 10-fold and leave-one-out cross-validation. Methods include Multiple Linear regression, Generalized Linear Model with Stepwise Feature Selection, Partial Least Squares regression, Lasso regression, and Support Vector Machines Recursive Feature Elimination. The new framework is an automated fully validated procedure which produces standardized reports to quickly oversee the impact of choices in modelling algorithms and assess the model and cross-validation results. The methodology was implemented as an open source R package, available at https://www.github.com/enanomapper/RRegrs, by reusing and extending on the caret package. The universality of the new methodology is demonstrated using five standard data sets from different scientific fields. Its efficiency in cheminformatics and QSAR modelling is shown with three use cases: proteomics data for surface-modified gold nanoparticles, nano-metal oxides descriptor data, and molecular descriptors for acute aquatic toxicity data. The results show that for all data sets RRegrs reports models with equal or better performance for both training and test sets than those reported in the original publications. Its good performance as well as its adaptability in terms of parameter optimization could make RRegrs a popular framework to assist the initial exploration of predictive models, and with that, the design of more comprehensive in silico screening applications.Graphical abstractRRegrs is a computer-aided model selection framework for R multiple regression models; this is a fully validated procedure with application to QSAR modelling.
LIVVkit: An extensible, python-based, land ice verification and validation toolkit for ice sheet models

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Kennedy, Joseph H.; Bennett, Andrew R.; Evans, Katherine J.

To address the pressing need to better understand the behavior and complex interaction of ice sheets within the global Earth system, significant development of continental-scale, dynamical ice sheet models is underway. Concurrent to the development of the Community Ice Sheet Model (CISM), the corresponding verification and validation (V&V) process is being coordinated through a new, robust, Python-based extensible software package, the Land Ice Verification and Validation toolkit (LIVVkit). Incorporated into the typical ice sheet model development cycle, it provides robust and automated numerical verification, software verification, performance validation, and physical validation analyses on a variety of platforms, from personal laptopsmore » to the largest supercomputers. LIVVkit operates on sets of regression test and reference data sets, and provides comparisons for a suite of community prioritized tests, including configuration and parameter variations, bit-for-bit evaluation, and plots of model variables to indicate where differences occur. LIVVkit also provides an easily extensible framework to incorporate and analyze results of new intercomparison projects, new observation data, and new computing platforms. LIVVkit is designed for quick adaptation to additional ice sheet models via abstraction of model specific code, functions, and configurations into an ice sheet model description bundle outside the main LIVVkit structure. Furthermore, through shareable and accessible analysis output, LIVVkit is intended to help developers build confidence in their models and enhance the credibility of ice sheet models overall.« less
LIVVkit: An extensible, python-based, land ice verification and validation toolkit for ice sheet models

DOE PAGES

Kennedy, Joseph H.; Bennett, Andrew R.; Evans, Katherine J.; ...

2017-03-23

To address the pressing need to better understand the behavior and complex interaction of ice sheets within the global Earth system, significant development of continental-scale, dynamical ice sheet models is underway. Concurrent to the development of the Community Ice Sheet Model (CISM), the corresponding verification and validation (V&V) process is being coordinated through a new, robust, Python-based extensible software package, the Land Ice Verification and Validation toolkit (LIVVkit). Incorporated into the typical ice sheet model development cycle, it provides robust and automated numerical verification, software verification, performance validation, and physical validation analyses on a variety of platforms, from personal laptopsmore » to the largest supercomputers. LIVVkit operates on sets of regression test and reference data sets, and provides comparisons for a suite of community prioritized tests, including configuration and parameter variations, bit-for-bit evaluation, and plots of model variables to indicate where differences occur. LIVVkit also provides an easily extensible framework to incorporate and analyze results of new intercomparison projects, new observation data, and new computing platforms. LIVVkit is designed for quick adaptation to additional ice sheet models via abstraction of model specific code, functions, and configurations into an ice sheet model description bundle outside the main LIVVkit structure. Furthermore, through shareable and accessible analysis output, LIVVkit is intended to help developers build confidence in their models and enhance the credibility of ice sheet models overall.« less
Bayesian cross-entropy methodology for optimal design of validation experiments

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jiang, X.; Mahadevan, S.

2006-07-01

An important concern in the design of validation experiments is how to incorporate the mathematical model in the design in order to allow conclusive comparisons of model prediction with experimental output in model assessment. The classical experimental design methods are more suitable for phenomena discovery and may result in a subjective, expensive, time-consuming and ineffective design that may adversely impact these comparisons. In this paper, an integrated Bayesian cross-entropy methodology is proposed to perform the optimal design of validation experiments incorporating the computational model. The expected cross entropy, an information-theoretic distance between the distributions of model prediction and experimental observation, is defined as a utility function to measure the similarity of two distributions. A simulated annealing algorithm is used to find optimal values of input variables through minimizing or maximizing the expected cross entropy. The measured data after testing with the optimum input values are used to update the distribution of the experimental output using Bayes theorem. The procedure is repeated to adaptively design the required number of experiments for model assessment, each time ensuring that the experiment provides effective comparison for validation. The methodology is illustrated for the optimal design of validation experiments for a three-leg bolted joint structure and a composite helicopter rotor hub component.
Use of the Ames Check Standard Model for the Validation of Wall Interference Corrections

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Ulbrich, N.; Amaya, M.; Flach, R.

2018-01-01

The new check standard model of the NASA Ames 11-ft Transonic Wind Tunnel was chosen for a future validation of the facility's wall interference correction system. The chosen validation approach takes advantage of the fact that test conditions experienced by a large model in the slotted part of the tunnel's test section will change significantly if a subset of the slots is temporarily sealed. Therefore, the model's aerodynamic coefficients have to be recorded, corrected, and compared for two different test section configurations in order to perform the validation. Test section configurations with highly accurate Mach number and dynamic pressure calibrations were selected for the validation. First, the model is tested with all test section slots in open configuration while keeping the model's center of rotation on the tunnel centerline. In the next step, slots on the test section floor are sealed and the model is moved to a new center of rotation that is 33 inches below the tunnel centerline. Then, the original angle of attack sweeps are repeated. Afterwards, wall interference corrections are applied to both test data sets and response surface models of the resulting aerodynamic coefficients in interference-free flow are generated. Finally, the response surface models are used to predict the aerodynamic coefficients for a family of angles of attack while keeping dynamic pressure, Mach number, and Reynolds number constant. The validation is considered successful if the corrected aerodynamic coefficients obtained from the related response surface model pair show good agreement. Residual differences between the corrected coefficient sets will be analyzed as well because they are an indicator of the overall accuracy of the facility's wall interference correction process.
The PDB_REDO server for macromolecular structure model optimization

PubMed Central

Joosten, Robbie P.; Long, Fei; Murshudov, Garib N.; Perrakis, Anastassis

2014-01-01

The refinement and validation of a crystallographic structure model is the last step before the coordinates and the associated data are submitted to the Protein Data Bank (PDB). The success of the refinement procedure is typically assessed by validating the models against geometrical criteria and the diffraction data, and is an important step in ensuring the quality of the PDB public archive [Read et al. (2011 ▶), Structure, 19, 1395–1412]. The PDB_REDO procedure aims for ‘constructive validation’, aspiring to consistent and optimal refinement parameterization and pro-active model rebuilding, not only correcting errors but striving for optimal interpretation of the electron density. A web server for PDB_REDO has been implemented, allowing thorough, consistent and fully automated optimization of the refinement procedure in REFMAC and partial model rebuilding. The goal of the web server is to help practicing crystallographers to improve their model prior to submission to the PDB. For this, additional steps were implemented in the PDB_REDO pipeline, both in the refinement procedure, e.g. testing of resolution limits and k-fold cross-validation for small test sets, and as new validation criteria, e.g. the density-fit metrics implemented in EDSTATS and ligand validation as implemented in YASARA. Innovative ways to present the refinement and validation results to the user are also described, which together with auto-generated Coot scripts can guide users to subsequent model inspection and improvement. It is demonstrated that using the server can lead to substantial improvement of structure models before they are submitted to the PDB. PMID:25075342
Using Lunar Observations to Validate In-Flight Calibrations of Clouds and Earth Radiant Energy System Instruments

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Daniels, Janet L.; Smith, G. Louis; Priestley, Kory J.; Thomas, Susan

2014-01-01

The validation of in-orbit instrument performance requires stability in both instrument and calibration source. This paper describes a method of validation using lunar observations scanning near full moon by the Clouds and Earth Radiant Energy System (CERES) instruments. Unlike internal calibrations, the Moon offers an external source whose signal variance is predictable and non-degrading. From 2006 to present, in-orbit observations have become standardized and compiled for the Flight Models-1 and -2 aboard the Terra satellite, for Flight Models-3 and -4 aboard the Aqua satellite, and beginning 2012, for Flight Model-5 aboard Suomi-NPP. Instrument performance parameters which can be gleaned are detector gain, pointing accuracy and static detector point response function validation. Lunar observations are used to examine the stability of all three detectors on each of these instruments from 2006 to present. This validation method has yielded results showing trends per CERES data channel of 1.2% per decade or less.
Development and Validation of Triarchic Construct Scales from the Psychopathic Personality Inventory

PubMed Central

Hall, Jason R.; Drislane, Laura E.; Patrick, Christopher J.; Morano, Mario; Lilienfeld, Scott O.; Poythress, Norman G.

2014-01-01

The Triarchic model of psychopathy describes this complex condition in terms of distinct phenotypic components of boldness, meanness, and disinhibition. Brief self-report scales designed specifically to index these psychopathy facets have thus far demonstrated promising construct validity. The present study sought to develop and validate scales for assessing facets of the Triarchic model using items from a well-validated existing measure of psychopathy—the Psychopathic Personality Inventory (PPI). A consensus rating approach was used to identify PPI items relevant to each Triarchic facet, and the convergent and discriminant validity of the resulting PPI-based Triarchic scales were evaluated in relation to multiple criterion variables (i.e., other psychopathy inventories, antisocial personality disorder features, personality traits, psychosocial functioning) in offender and non-offender samples. The PPI-based Triarchic scales showed good internal consistency and related to criterion variables in ways consistent with predictions based on the Triarchic model. Findings are discussed in terms of implications for conceptualization and assessment of psychopathy. PMID:24447280
Development and validation of Triarchic construct scales from the psychopathic personality inventory.

PubMed

Hall, Jason R; Drislane, Laura E; Patrick, Christopher J; Morano, Mario; Lilienfeld, Scott O; Poythress, Norman G

2014-06-01

The Triarchic model of psychopathy describes this complex condition in terms of distinct phenotypic components of boldness, meanness, and disinhibition. Brief self-report scales designed specifically to index these psychopathy facets have thus far demonstrated promising construct validity. The present study sought to develop and validate scales for assessing facets of the Triarchic model using items from a well-validated existing measure of psychopathy-the Psychopathic Personality Inventory (PPI). A consensus-rating approach was used to identify PPI items relevant to each Triarchic facet, and the convergent and discriminant validity of the resulting PPI-based Triarchic scales were evaluated in relation to multiple criterion variables (i.e., other psychopathy inventories, antisocial personality disorder features, personality traits, psychosocial functioning) in offender and nonoffender samples. The PPI-based Triarchic scales showed good internal consistency and related to criterion variables in ways consistent with predictions based on the Triarchic model. Findings are discussed in terms of implications for conceptualization and assessment of psychopathy.

Measuring engagement in nurses: the psychometric properties of the Persian version of Utrecht Work Engagement Scale

PubMed Central

Torabinia, Mansour; Mahmoudi, Sara; Dolatshahi, Mojtaba; Abyaz, Mohamad Reza

2017-01-01

Background: Considering the overall tendency in psychology, researchers in the field of work and organizational psychology have become progressively interested in employees’ effective and optimistic experiments at work such as work engagement. This study was conducted to investigate 2 main purposes: assessing the psychometric properties of the Utrecht Work Engagement Scale, and finding any association between work engagement and burnout in nurses. Methods: The present methodological study was conducted in 2015 and included 248 females and 34 males with 6 months to 30 years of job experience. After the translation process, face and content validity were calculated by qualitative and quantitative methods. Moreover, content validation ratio, scale-level content validity index and item-level content validity index were measured for this scale. Construct validity was determined by factor analysis. Moreover, internal consistency and stability reliability were assessed. Factor analysis, test-retest, Cronbach’s alpha, and association analysis were used as statistical methods. Results: Face and content validity were acceptable. Exploratory factor analysis suggested a new 3- factor model. In this new model, some items from the construct model of the original version were dislocated with the same 17 items. The new model was confirmed by divergent Copenhagen Burnout Inventory as the Persian version of UWES. Internal consistency reliability for the total scale and the subscales was 0.76 to 0.89. Results from Pearson correlation test indicated a high degree of test-retest reliability (r = 0. 89). ICC was also 0.91. Engagement was negatively related to burnout and overtime per month, whereas it was positively related with age and job experiment. Conclusion: The Persian 3– factor model of Utrecht Work Engagement Scale is a valid and reliable instrument to measure work engagement in Iranian nurses as well as in other medical professionals. PMID:28955665
Comparison of type 2 diabetes prevalence estimates in Saudi Arabia from a validated Markov model against the International Diabetes Federation and other modelling studies

PubMed Central

Al-Quwaidhi, Abdulkareem J.; Pearce, Mark S.; Sobngwi, Eugene; Critchley, Julia A.; O’Flaherty, Martin

2014-01-01

Aims To compare the estimates and projections of type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) prevalence in Saudi Arabia from a validated Markov model against other modelling estimates, such as those produced by the International Diabetes Federation (IDF) Diabetes Atlas and the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) project. Methods A discrete-state Markov model was developed and validated that integrates data on population, obesity and smoking prevalence trends in adult Saudis aged ≥25 years to estimate the trends in T2DM prevalence (annually from 1992 to 2022). The model was validated by comparing the age- and sex-specific prevalence estimates against a national survey conducted in 2005. Results Prevalence estimates from this new Markov model were consistent with the 2005 national survey and very similar to the GBD study estimates. Prevalence in men and women in 2000 was estimated by the GBD model respectively at 17.5% and 17.7%, compared to 17.7% and 16.4% in this study. The IDF estimates of the total diabetes prevalence were considerably lower at 16.7% in 2011 and 20.8% in 2030, compared with 29.2% in 2011 and 44.1% in 2022 in this study. Conclusion In contrast to other modelling studies, both the Saudi IMPACT Diabetes Forecast Model and the GBD model directly incorporated the trends in obesity prevalence and/or body mass index (BMI) to inform T2DM prevalence estimates. It appears that such a direct incorporation of obesity trends in modelling studies results in higher estimates of the future prevalence of T2DM, at least in countries where obesity has been rapidly increasing. PMID:24447810
Modelling the pre-assessment learning effects of assessment: evidence in the validity chain

PubMed Central

Cilliers, Francois J; Schuwirth, Lambert W T; van der Vleuten, Cees P M

2012-01-01

OBJECTIVES We previously developed a model of the pre-assessment learning effects of consequential assessment and started to validate it. The model comprises assessment factors, mechanism factors and learning effects. The purpose of this study was to continue the validation process. For stringency, we focused on a subset of assessment factor–learning effect associations that featured least commonly in a baseline qualitative study. Our aims were to determine whether these uncommon associations were operational in a broader but similar population to that in which the model was initially derived. METHODS A cross-sectional survey of 361 senior medical students at one medical school was undertaken using a purpose-made questionnaire based on a grounded theory and comprising pairs of written situational tests. In each pair, the manifestation of an assessment factor was varied. The frequencies at which learning effects were selected were compared for each item pair, using an adjusted alpha to assign significance. The frequencies at which mechanism factors were selected were calculated. RESULTS There were significant differences in the learning effect selected between the two scenarios of an item pair for 13 of this subset of 21 uncommon associations, even when a p-value of < 0.00625 was considered to indicate significance. Three mechanism factors were operational in most scenarios: agency; response efficacy, and response value. CONCLUSIONS For a subset of uncommon associations in the model, the role of most assessment factor–learning effect associations and the mechanism factors involved were supported in a broader but similar population to that in which the model was derived. Although model validation is an ongoing process, these results move the model one step closer to the stage of usefully informing interventions. Results illustrate how factors not typically included in studies of the learning effects of assessment could confound the results of interventions aimed at using assessment to influence learning. Discuss ideas arising from this article at ‘http://www.mededuc.com discuss’ PMID:23078685
FIRE Science Results 1989

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Mcdougal, David S. (Editor)

1990-01-01

FIRE (First ISCCP Regional Experiment) is a U.S. cloud-radiation research program formed in 1984 to increase the basic understanding of cirrus and marine stratocumulus cloud systems, to develop realistic parameterizations for these systems, and to validate and improve ISCCP cloud product retrievals. Presentations of results culminating the first 5 years of FIRE research activities were highlighted. The 1986 Cirrus Intensive Field Observations (IFO), the 1987 Marine Stratocumulus IFO, the Extended Time Observations (ETO), and modeling activities are described. Collaborative efforts involving the comparison of multiple data sets, incorporation of data measurements into modeling activities, validation of ISCCP cloud parameters, and development of parameterization schemes for General Circulation Models (GCMs) are described.
DEVELOPMENT AND VALIDATION OF A MULTIFIELD MODEL OF CHURN-TURBULENT GAS/LIQUID FLOWS

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Elena A. Tselishcheva; Steven P. Antal; Michael Z. Podowski

The accuracy of numerical predictions for gas/liquid two-phase flows using Computational Multiphase Fluid Dynamics (CMFD) methods strongly depends on the formulation of models governing the interaction between the continuous liquid field and bubbles of different sizes. The purpose of this paper is to develop, test and validate a multifield model of adiabatic gas/liquid flows at intermediate gas concentrations (e.g., churn-turbulent flow regime), in which multiple-size bubbles are divided into a specified number of groups, each representing a prescribed range of sizes. The proposed modeling concept uses transport equations for the continuous liquid field and for each bubble field. The overallmore » model has been implemented in the NPHASE-CMFD computer code. The results of NPHASE-CMFD simulations have been validated against the experimental data from the TOPFLOW test facility. Also, a parametric analysis on the effect of various modeling assumptions has been performed.« less
Validation of the Activities of Community Transportation model for individuals with cognitive impairments.

PubMed

Sohlberg, McKay Moore; Fickas, Stephen; Lemoncello, Rik; Hung, Pei-Fang

2009-01-01

To develop a theoretical, functional model of community navigation for individuals with cognitive impairments: the Activities of Community Transportation (ACTs). Iterative design using qualitative methods (i.e. document review, focus groups and observations). Four agencies providing travel training to adults with cognitive impairments in the USA participated in the validation study. A thorough document review and series of focus groups led to the development of a comprehensive model (ACTs Wheels) delineating the requisite steps and skills for community navigation. The model was validated and updated based on observations of 395 actual trips by travellers with navigational challenges from the four participating agencies. Results revealed that the 'ACTs Wheel' models were complete and comprehensive. The 'ACTs Wheels' represent a comprehensive model of the steps needed to navigate to destinations using paratransit and fixed-route public transportation systems for travellers with cognitive impairments. Suggestions are made for future investigations of community transportation for this population.
Producibility improvements suggested by a validated process model of seeded CdZnTe vertical Bridgman growth

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Larson, David J., Jr.; Casagrande, Louis G.; Di Marzio, Don; Levy, Alan; Carlson, Frederick M.; Lee, Taipao; Black, David R.; Wu, Jun; Dudley, Michael

1994-07-01

We have successfully validated theoretical models of seeded vertical Bridgman-Stockbarger CdZnTe crystal growth and post-solidification processing, using in-situ thermal monitoring and innovative material characterization techniques. The models predict the thermal gradients, interface shape, fluid flow and solute redistribution during solidification, as well as the distributions of accumulated excess stress that causes defect generation and redistribution. Data from the furnace and ampoule wall have validated predictions from the thermal model. Results are compared to predictions of the thermal and thermo-solutal models. We explain the measured initial, change-of-rate, and terminal compositional transients as well as the macrosegregation. Macro and micro-defect distributions have been imaged on CdZnTe wafers from 40 mm diameter boules. Superposition of topographic defect images and predicted excess stress patterns suggests the origin of some frequently encountered defects, particularly on a macro scale, to result from the applied and accumulated stress fields and the anisotropic nature of the CdZnTe crystal. Implications of these findings with respect to producibility are discussed.
Development and validation of rear impact computer simulation model of an adult manual transit wheelchair with a seated occupant.

PubMed

Salipur, Zdravko; Bertocci, Gina

2010-01-01

It has been shown that ANSI WC19 transit wheelchairs that are crashworthy in frontal impact exhibit catastrophic failures in rear impact and may not be able to provide stable seating support and thus occupant protection for the wheelchair occupant. Thus far only limited sled test and computer simulation data have been available to study rear impact wheelchair safety. Computer modeling can be used as an economic and comprehensive tool to gain critical knowledge regarding wheelchair integrity and occupant safety. This study describes the development and validation of a computer model simulating an adult wheelchair-seated occupant subjected to a rear impact event. The model was developed in MADYMO and validated rigorously using the results of three similar sled tests conducted to specifications provided in the draft ISO/TC 173 standard. Outcomes from the model can provide critical wheelchair loading information to wheelchair and tiedown manufacturers, resulting in safer wheelchair designs for rear impact conditions. (c) 2009 IPEM. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
Validation of Solar Sail Simulations for the NASA Solar Sail Demonstration Project

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Braafladt, Alexander C.; Artusio-Glimpse, Alexandra B.; Heaton, Andrew F.

2014-01-01

NASA's Solar Sail Demonstration project partner L'Garde is currently assembling a flight-like sail assembly for a series of ground demonstration tests beginning in 2015. For future missions of this sail that might validate solar sail technology, it is necessary to have an accurate sail thrust model. One of the primary requirements of a proposed potential technology validation mission will be to demonstrate solar sail thrust over a set time period, which for this project is nominally 30 days. This requirement would be met by comparing a L'Garde-developed trajectory simulation to the as-flown trajectory. The current sail simulation baseline for L'Garde is a Systems Tool Kit (STK) plug-in that includes a custom-designed model of the L'Garde sail. The STK simulation has been verified for a flat plate model by comparing it to the NASA-developed Solar Sail Spaceflight Simulation Software (S5). S5 matched STK with a high degree of accuracy and the results of the validation indicate that the L'Garde STK model is accurate enough to meet the potential future mission requirements. Additionally, since the L'Garde sail deviates considerably from a flat plate, a force model for a non-flat sail provided by L'Garde sail was also tested and compared to a flat plate model in S5. This result will be used in the future as a basis of comparison to the non-flat sail model being developed for STK.
Validation of a Fast-Response Urban Micrometeorological Model to Assess the Performance of Urban Heat Island Mitigation Strategies

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nadeau, D.; Girard, P.; Overby, M.; Pardyjak, E.; Stoll, R., II; Willemsen, P.; Bailey, B.; Parlange, M. B.

2015-12-01

Urban heat islands (UHI) are a real threat in many cities worldwide and mitigation measures have become a central component of urban planning strategies. Even within a city, causes of UHI vary from one neighborhood to another, mostly due the spatial variability in surface thermal properties, building geometry, anthropogenic heat flux releases and vegetation cover. As a result, the performance of UHI mitigation measures also varies in space. Hence, there is a need to develop a tool to quantify the efficiency of UHI mitigation measures at the neighborhood scale. The objective of this ongoing study is to validate the fast-response micrometeorological model QUIC EnvSim (QES). This model can provide all information required for UHI studies with a fine spatial resolution (up to 0.5m) and short computation time. QES combines QUIC, a CFD-based wind solver and dispersion model, and EnvSim, composed of a radiation model, a land-surface model and a turbulent transport model. Here, high-resolution (1 m) simulations are run over a subset of the École Polytechnique Fédérale de Lausanne (EPFL) campus including complex buildings, various surfaces properties and vegetation. For nearly five months in 2006-07, a dense network of meteorological observations (92 weather stations over 0.1 km2) was deployed over the campus and these unique data are used here as a validation dataset. We present validation results for different test cases (e.g., sunny vs cloudy days, different incoming wind speeds and directions) and explore the effect of a few UHI mitigation strategies on the spatial distribution of near-surface air temperatures. Preliminary results suggest that QES may be a valuable tool in decision-making regarding adaptation of urban planning to UHI.
Effects of turbulence modelling on prediction of flow characteristics in a bench-scale anaerobic gas-lift digester.

PubMed

Coughtrie, A R; Borman, D J; Sleigh, P A

2013-06-01

Flow in a gas-lift digester with a central draft-tube was investigated using computational fluid dynamics (CFD) and different turbulence closure models. The k-ω Shear-Stress-Transport (SST), Renormalization-Group (RNG) k-∊, Linear Reynolds-Stress-Model (RSM) and Transition-SST models were tested for a gas-lift loop reactor under Newtonian flow conditions validated against published experimental work. The results identify that flow predictions within the reactor (where flow is transitional) are particularly sensitive to the turbulence model implemented; the Transition-SST model was found to be the most robust for capturing mixing behaviour and predicting separation reliably. Therefore, Transition-SST is recommended over k-∊ models for use in comparable mixing problems. A comparison of results obtained using multiphase Euler-Lagrange and singlephase approaches are presented. The results support the validity of the singlephase modelling assumptions in obtaining reliable predictions of the reactor flow. Solver independence of results was verified by comparing two independent finite-volume solvers (Fluent-13.0sp2 and OpenFOAM-2.0.1). Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
Finite Element Model Development For Aircraft Fuselage Structures

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Buehrle, Ralph D.; Fleming, Gary A.; Pappa, Richard S.; Grosveld, Ferdinand W.

2000-01-01

The ability to extend the valid frequency range for finite element based structural dynamic predictions using detailed models of the structural components and attachment interfaces is examined for several stiffened aircraft fuselage structures. This extended dynamic prediction capability is needed for the integration of mid-frequency noise control technology. Beam, plate and solid element models of the stiffener components are evaluated. Attachment models between the stiffener and panel skin range from a line along the rivets of the physical structure to a constraint over the entire contact surface. The finite element models are validated using experimental modal analysis results.
Model for Atmospheric Propagation of Spatially Combined Laser Beams

DTIC Science & Technology

2016-09-01

thesis modeling tools is discussed. In Chapter 6, the thesis validated the model with analytical computations and simulations result from...using propagation model . Based on both the analytical computation and WaveTrain results, the diraction e ects simulated in the propagation model are...NAVAL POSTGRADUATE SCHOOL MONTEREY, CALIFORNIA THESIS MODEL FOR ATMOSPHERIC PROPAGATION OF SPATIALLY COMBINED LASER BEAMS by Kum Leong Lee
Validation Of The Airspace Concept Evaluation System Using Real World Data

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Zelinski, Shannon

2005-01-01

This paper discusses the process of performing a validation of the Airspace Concept Evaluation System (ACES) using real world historical flight operational data. ACES inputs are generated from select real world data and processed to create a realistic reproduction of a single day of operations within the National Airspace System (NAS). ACES outputs are then compared to real world operational metrics and delay statistics for the reproduced day. Preliminary results indicate that ACES produces delays and airport operational metrics similar to the real world with minor variations of delay by phase of flight. ACES is a nation-wide fast-time simulation tool developed at NASA Ames Research Center. ACES models and simulates the NAS using interacting agents representing center control, terminal flow management, airports, individual flights, and other NAS elements. These agents pass messages between one another similar to real world communications. This distributed agent based system is designed to emulate the highly unpredictable nature of the NAS, making it a suitable tool to evaluate current and envisioned airspace concepts. To ensure that ACES produces the most realistic results, the system must be validated. There is no way to validate future concepts scenarios using real world historical data, but current day scenario validations increase confidence in the validity of future scenario results. Each operational day has unique weather and traffic demand schedules. The more a simulation utilizes the unique characteristic of a specific day, the more realistic the results should be. ACES is able to simulate the full scale demand traffic necessary to perform a validation using real world data. Through direct comparison with the real world, models may continuee to be improved and unusual trends and biases may be filtered out of the system or used to normalize the results of future concept simulations.
An Efficient Data Partitioning to Improve Classification Performance While Keeping Parameters Interpretable

PubMed Central

Korjus, Kristjan; Hebart, Martin N.; Vicente, Raul

2016-01-01

Supervised machine learning methods typically require splitting data into multiple chunks for training, validating, and finally testing classifiers. For finding the best parameters of a classifier, training and validation are usually carried out with cross-validation. This is followed by application of the classifier with optimized parameters to a separate test set for estimating the classifier’s generalization performance. With limited data, this separation of test data creates a difficult trade-off between having more statistical power in estimating generalization performance versus choosing better parameters and fitting a better model. We propose a novel approach that we term “Cross-validation and cross-testing” improving this trade-off by re-using test data without biasing classifier performance. The novel approach is validated using simulated data and electrophysiological recordings in humans and rodents. The results demonstrate that the approach has a higher probability of discovering significant results than the standard approach of cross-validation and testing, while maintaining the nominal alpha level. In contrast to nested cross-validation, which is maximally efficient in re-using data, the proposed approach additionally maintains the interpretability of individual parameters. Taken together, we suggest an addition to currently used machine learning approaches which may be particularly useful in cases where model weights do not require interpretation, but parameters do. PMID:27564393
An Efficient Data Partitioning to Improve Classification Performance While Keeping Parameters Interpretable.

PubMed

Korjus, Kristjan; Hebart, Martin N; Vicente, Raul

2016-01-01

Supervised machine learning methods typically require splitting data into multiple chunks for training, validating, and finally testing classifiers. For finding the best parameters of a classifier, training and validation are usually carried out with cross-validation. This is followed by application of the classifier with optimized parameters to a separate test set for estimating the classifier's generalization performance. With limited data, this separation of test data creates a difficult trade-off between having more statistical power in estimating generalization performance versus choosing better parameters and fitting a better model. We propose a novel approach that we term "Cross-validation and cross-testing" improving this trade-off by re-using test data without biasing classifier performance. The novel approach is validated using simulated data and electrophysiological recordings in humans and rodents. The results demonstrate that the approach has a higher probability of discovering significant results than the standard approach of cross-validation and testing, while maintaining the nominal alpha level. In contrast to nested cross-validation, which is maximally efficient in re-using data, the proposed approach additionally maintains the interpretability of individual parameters. Taken together, we suggest an addition to currently used machine learning approaches which may be particularly useful in cases where model weights do not require interpretation, but parameters do.
Passion: Does one scale fit all? Construct validity of two-factor passion scale and psychometric invariance over different activities and languages.

PubMed

Marsh, Herbert W; Vallerand, Robert J; Lafrenière, Marc-André K; Parker, Philip; Morin, Alexandre J S; Carbonneau, Noémie; Jowett, Sophia; Bureau, Julien S; Fernet, Claude; Guay, Frédéric; Salah Abduljabbar, Adel; Paquet, Yvan

2013-09-01

The passion scale, based on the dualistic model of passion, measures 2 distinct types of passion: Harmonious and obsessive passions are predictive of adaptive and less adaptive outcomes, respectively. In a substantive-methodological synergy, we evaluate the construct validity (factor structure, reliability, convergent and discriminant validity) of Passion Scale responses (N = 3,571). The exploratory structural equation model fit to the data was substantially better than the confirmatory factor analysis solution, and resulted in better differentiated (less correlated) factors. Results from a 13-model taxonomy of measurement invariance supported complete invariance (factor loadings, factor correlations, item uniquenesses, item intercepts, and latent means) over language (French vs. English; the instrument was originally devised in French, then translated into English) and gender. Strong measurement partial invariance over 5 passion activity groups (leisure, sport, social, work, education) indicates that the same set of items is appropriate for assessing passion across a wide variety of activities--a previously untested, implicit assumption that greatly enhances practical utility. Support was found for the convergent and discriminant validity of the harmonious and obsessive passion scales, based on a set of validity correlates: life satisfaction, rumination, conflict, time investment, activity liking and valuation, and perceiving the activity as a passion.
Prognostics of Power Electronics, Methods and Validation Experiments

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kulkarni, Chetan S.; Celaya, Jose R.; Biswas, Gautam; Goebel, Kai

2012-01-01

Abstract Failure of electronic devices is a concern for future electric aircrafts that will see an increase of electronics to drive and control safety-critical equipment throughout the aircraft. As a result, investigation of precursors to failure in electronics and prediction of remaining life of electronic components is of key importance. DC-DC power converters are power electronics systems employed typically as sourcing elements for avionics equipment. Current research efforts in prognostics for these power systems focuses on the identification of failure mechanisms and the development of accelerated aging methodologies and systems to accelerate the aging process of test devices, while continuously measuring key electrical and thermal parameters. Preliminary model-based prognostics algorithms have been developed making use of empirical degradation models and physics-inspired degradation model with focus on key components like electrolytic capacitors and power MOSFETs (metal-oxide-semiconductor-field-effect-transistor). This paper presents current results on the development of validation methods for prognostics algorithms of power electrolytic capacitors. Particularly, in the use of accelerated aging systems for algorithm validation. Validation of prognostics algorithms present difficulties in practice due to the lack of run-to-failure experiments in deployed systems. By using accelerated experiments, we circumvent this problem in order to define initial validation activities.
Five-Factor Screener in the 2005 National Health Interview Survey Cancer Control Supplement: Validation Results

Cancer.gov

Risk Factor Assessment Branch staff have assessed indirectly the validity of parts of the Five-Factor Screener in two studies: NCI's Observing Protein and Energy (OPEN) Study and the Eating at America's Table Study (EATS). In both studies, multiple 24-hour recalls in conjunction with a measurement error model were used to assess validity.
Objective validation of central sensitization in the rat UVB and heat rekindling model

PubMed Central

Weerasinghe, NS; Lumb, BM; Apps, R; Koutsikou, S; Murrell, JC

2014-01-01

Background The UVB and heat rekindling (UVB/HR) model shows potential as a translatable inflammatory pain model. However, the occurrence of central sensitization in this model, a fundamental mechanism underlying chronic pain, has been debated. Face, construct and predictive validity are key requisites of animal models; electromyogram (EMG) recordings were utilized to objectively demonstrate validity of the rat UVB/HR model. Methods The UVB/HR model was induced on the heel of the hind paw under anaesthesia. Mechanical withdrawal thresholds (MWTs) were obtained from biceps femoris EMG responses to a gradually increasing pinch at the mid hind paw region under alfaxalone anaesthesia, 96 h after UVB irradiation. MWT was compared between UVB/HR and SHAM-treated rats (anaesthetic only). Underlying central mechanisms in the model were pharmacologically validated by MWT measurement following intrathecal N-methyl-d-aspartate (NMDA) receptor antagonist, MK-801, or saline. Results Secondary hyperalgesia was confirmed by a significantly lower pre-drug MWT {mean [±standard error of the mean (SEM)]} in UVB/HR [56.3 (±2.1) g/mm2, n = 15] compared with SHAM-treated rats [69.3 (±2.9) g/mm2, n = 8], confirming face validity of the model. Predictive validity was demonstrated by the attenuation of secondary hyperalgesia by MK-801, where mean (±SEM) MWT was significantly higher [77.2 (±5.9) g/mm2 n = 7] in comparison with pre-drug [57.8 (±3.5) g/mm2 n = 7] and saline [57.0 (±3.2) g/mm2 n = 8] at peak drug effect. The occurrence of central sensitization confirmed construct validity of the UVB/HR model. Conclusions This study used objective outcome measures of secondary hyperalgesia to validate the rat UVB/HR model as a translational model of inflammatory pain. What's already known about this topic? Most current animal chronic pain models lack translatability to human subjects. Primary hyperalgesia is an established feature of the UVB/heat rekindling inflammatory pain model in rodents and humans, but the presence of secondary hyperalgesia, a hallmark feature of central sensitization and thus chronic pain, is contentious. What does this study add? Secondary hyperalgesia was demonstrated in the rat UVB/heat rekindling model using an objective outcome measure (electromyogram), overcoming the subjective limitations of previous behavioural studies. PMID:24590815

Analytical Formulation for Sizing and Estimating the Dimensions and Weight of Wind Turbine Hub and Drivetrain Components

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Guo, Y.; Parsons, T.; King, R.

This report summarizes the theory, verification, and validation of a new sizing tool for wind turbine drivetrain components, the Drivetrain Systems Engineering (DriveSE) tool. DriveSE calculates the dimensions and mass properties of the hub, main shaft, main bearing(s), gearbox, bedplate, transformer if up-tower, and yaw system. The level of fi¬ delity for each component varies depending on whether semiempirical parametric or physics-based models are used. The physics-based models have internal iteration schemes based on system constraints and design criteria. Every model is validated against available industry data or finite-element analysis. The verification and validation results show that the models reasonablymore » capture primary drivers for the sizing and design of major drivetrain components.« less
Modeling river total bed material load discharge using artificial intelligence approaches (based on conceptual inputs)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Roushangar, Kiyoumars; Mehrabani, Fatemeh Vojoudi; Shiri, Jalal

2014-06-01

This study presents Artificial Intelligence (AI)-based modeling of total bed material load through developing the accuracy level of the predictions of traditional models. Gene expression programming (GEP) and adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference system (ANFIS)-based models were developed and validated for estimations. Sediment data from Qotur River (Northwestern Iran) were used for developing and validation of the applied techniques. In order to assess the applied techniques in relation to traditional models, stream power-based and shear stress-based physical models were also applied in the studied case. The obtained results reveal that developed AI-based models using minimum number of dominant factors, give more accurate results than the other applied models. Nonetheless, it was revealed that k-fold test is a practical but high-cost technique for complete scanning of applied data and avoiding the over-fitting.
Refining and validating a conceptual model of Clinical Nurse Leader integrated care delivery.

PubMed

Bender, Miriam; Williams, Marjory; Su, Wei; Hites, Lisle

2017-02-01

To empirically validate a conceptual model of Clinical Nurse Leader integrated care delivery. There is limited evidence of frontline care delivery models that consistently achieve quality patient outcomes. Clinical Nurse Leader integrated care delivery is a promising nursing model with a growing record of success. However, theoretical clarity is necessary to generate causal evidence of effectiveness. Sequential mixed methods. A preliminary Clinical Nurse Leader practice model was refined and survey items developed to correspond with model domains, using focus groups and a Delphi process with a multi-professional expert panel. The survey was administered in 2015 to clinicians and administrators involved in Clinical Nurse Leader initiatives. Confirmatory factor analysis and structural equation modelling were used to validate the measurement and model structure. Final sample n = 518. The model incorporates 13 components organized into five conceptual domains: 'Readiness for Clinical Nurse Leader integrated care delivery'; 'Structuring Clinical Nurse Leader integrated care delivery'; 'Clinical Nurse Leader Practice: Continuous Clinical Leadership'; 'Outcomes of Clinical Nurse Leader integrated care delivery'; and 'Value'. Sample data had good fit with specified model and two-level measurement structure. All hypothesized pathways were significant, with strong coefficients suggesting good fit between theorized and observed path relationships. The validated model articulates an explanatory pathway of Clinical Nurse Leader integrated care delivery, including Clinical Nurse Leader practices that result in improved care dynamics and patient outcomes. The validated model provides a basis for testing in practice to generate evidence that can be deployed across the healthcare spectrum. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.
A high-performance spatial database based approach for pathology imaging algorithm evaluation

PubMed Central

Wang, Fusheng; Kong, Jun; Gao, Jingjing; Cooper, Lee A.D.; Kurc, Tahsin; Zhou, Zhengwen; Adler, David; Vergara-Niedermayr, Cristobal; Katigbak, Bryan; Brat, Daniel J.; Saltz, Joel H.

2013-01-01

Background: Algorithm evaluation provides a means to characterize variability across image analysis algorithms, validate algorithms by comparison with human annotations, combine results from multiple algorithms for performance improvement, and facilitate algorithm sensitivity studies. The sizes of images and image analysis results in pathology image analysis pose significant challenges in algorithm evaluation. We present an efficient parallel spatial database approach to model, normalize, manage, and query large volumes of analytical image result data. This provides an efficient platform for algorithm evaluation. Our experiments with a set of brain tumor images demonstrate the application, scalability, and effectiveness of the platform. Context: The paper describes an approach and platform for evaluation of pathology image analysis algorithms. The platform facilitates algorithm evaluation through a high-performance database built on the Pathology Analytic Imaging Standards (PAIS) data model. Aims: (1) Develop a framework to support algorithm evaluation by modeling and managing analytical results and human annotations from pathology images; (2) Create a robust data normalization tool for converting, validating, and fixing spatial data from algorithm or human annotations; (3) Develop a set of queries to support data sampling and result comparisons; (4) Achieve high performance computation capacity via a parallel data management infrastructure, parallel data loading and spatial indexing optimizations in this infrastructure. Materials and Methods: We have considered two scenarios for algorithm evaluation: (1) algorithm comparison where multiple result sets from different methods are compared and consolidated; and (2) algorithm validation where algorithm results are compared with human annotations. We have developed a spatial normalization toolkit to validate and normalize spatial boundaries produced by image analysis algorithms or human annotations. The validated data were formatted based on the PAIS data model and loaded into a spatial database. To support efficient data loading, we have implemented a parallel data loading tool that takes advantage of multi-core CPUs to accelerate data injection. The spatial database manages both geometric shapes and image features or classifications, and enables spatial sampling, result comparison, and result aggregation through expressive structured query language (SQL) queries with spatial extensions. To provide scalable and efficient query support, we have employed a shared nothing parallel database architecture, which distributes data homogenously across multiple database partitions to take advantage of parallel computation power and implements spatial indexing to achieve high I/O throughput. Results: Our work proposes a high performance, parallel spatial database platform for algorithm validation and comparison. This platform was evaluated by storing, managing, and comparing analysis results from a set of brain tumor whole slide images. The tools we develop are open source and available to download. Conclusions: Pathology image algorithm validation and comparison are essential to iterative algorithm development and refinement. One critical component is the support for queries involving spatial predicates and comparisons. In our work, we develop an efficient data model and parallel database approach to model, normalize, manage and query large volumes of analytical image result data. Our experiments demonstrate that the data partitioning strategy and the grid-based indexing result in good data distribution across database nodes and reduce I/O overhead in spatial join queries through parallel retrieval of relevant data and quick subsetting of datasets. The set of tools in the framework provide a full pipeline to normalize, load, manage and query analytical results for algorithm evaluation. PMID:23599905
CCR+: Metadata Based Extended Personal Health Record Data Model Interoperable with the ASTM CCR Standard.

PubMed

Park, Yu Rang; Yoon, Young Jo; Jang, Tae Hun; Seo, Hwa Jeong; Kim, Ju Han

2014-01-01

Extension of the standard model while retaining compliance with it is a challenging issue because there is currently no method for semantically or syntactically verifying an extended data model. A metadata-based extended model, named CCR+, was designed and implemented to achieve interoperability between standard and extended models. Furthermore, a multilayered validation method was devised to validate the standard and extended models. The American Society for Testing and Materials (ASTM) Community Care Record (CCR) standard was selected to evaluate the CCR+ model; two CCR and one CCR+ XML files were evaluated. In total, 188 metadata were extracted from the ASTM CCR standard; these metadata are semantically interconnected and registered in the metadata registry. An extended-data-model-specific validation file was generated from these metadata. This file can be used in a smartphone application (Health Avatar CCR+) as a part of a multilayered validation. The new CCR+ model was successfully evaluated via a patient-centric exchange scenario involving multiple hospitals, with the results supporting both syntactic and semantic interoperability between the standard CCR and extended, CCR+, model. A feasible method for delivering an extended model that complies with the standard model is presented herein. There is a great need to extend static standard models such as the ASTM CCR in various domains: the methods presented here represent an important reference for achieving interoperability between standard and extended models.
Measurement and computer simulation of antennas on ships and aircraft for results of operational reliability

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kubina, Stanley J.

1989-09-01

The review of the status of computational electromagnetics by Miller and the exposition by Burke of the developments in one of the more important computer codes in the application of the electric field integral equation method, the Numerical Electromagnetic Code (NEC), coupled with Molinet's summary of progress in techniques based on the Geometrical Theory of Diffraction (GTD), provide a clear perspective on the maturity of the modern discipline of computational electromagnetics and its potential. Audone's exposition of the application to the computation of Radar Scattering Cross-section (RCS) is an indication of the breadth of practical applications and his exploitation of modern near-field measurement techniques reminds one of progress in the measurement discipline which is essential to the validation or calibration of computational modeling methodology when applied to complex structures such as aircraft and ships. The latter monograph also presents some comparison results with computational models. Some of the results presented for scale model and flight measurements show some serious disagreements in the lobe structure which would require some detailed examination. This also applies to the radiation patterns obtained by flight measurement compared with those obtained using wire-grid models and integral equation modeling methods. In the examples which follow, an attempt is made to match measurements results completely over the entire 2 to 30 MHz HF range for antennas on a large patrol aircraft. The problem of validating computer models of HF antennas on a helicopter and using computer models to generate radiation pattern information which cannot be obtained by measurements are discussed. The use of NEC computer models to analyze top-side ship configurations where measurement results are not available and only self-validation measures are available or at best comparisons with an alternate GTD computer modeling technique is also discussed.
Estimation of Particulate Mass and Manganese Exposure Levels among Welders

PubMed Central

Hobson, Angela; Seixas, Noah; Sterling, David; Racette, Brad A.

2011-01-01

Background: Welders are frequently exposed to Manganese (Mn), which may increase the risk of neurological impairment. Historical exposure estimates for welding-exposed workers are needed for epidemiological studies evaluating the relationship between welding and neurological or other health outcomes. The objective of this study was to develop and validate a multivariate model to estimate quantitative levels of welding fume exposures based on welding particulate mass and Mn concentrations reported in the published literature. Methods: Articles that described welding particulate and Mn exposures during field welding activities were identified through a comprehensive literature search. Summary measures of exposure and related determinants such as year of sampling, welding process performed, type of ventilation used, degree of enclosure, base metal, and location of sampling filter were extracted from each article. The natural log of the reported arithmetic mean exposure level was used as the dependent variable in model building, while the independent variables included the exposure determinants. Cross-validation was performed to aid in model selection and to evaluate the generalizability of the models. Results: A total of 33 particulate and 27 Mn means were included in the regression analysis. The final model explained 76% of the variability in the mean exposures and included welding process and degree of enclosure as predictors. There was very little change in the explained variability and root mean squared error between the final model and its cross-validation model indicating the final model is robust given the available data. Conclusions: This model may be improved with more detailed exposure determinants; however, the relatively large amount of variance explained by the final model along with the positive generalizability results of the cross-validation increases the confidence that the estimates derived from this model can be used for estimating welder exposures in absence of individual measurement data. PMID:20870928
Construct validity of the Moral Development Scale for Professionals (MDSP)

PubMed Central

Söderhamn, Olle; Bjørnestad, John Olav; Skisland, Anne; Cliffordson, Christina

2011-01-01

The aim of this study was to investigate the construct validity of the Moral Development Scale for Professionals (MDSP) using structural equation modeling. The instrument is a 12-item self-report instrument, developed in the Scandinavian cultural context and based on Kohlberg’s theory. A hypothesized simplex structure model underlying the MDSP was tested through structural equation modeling. Validity was also tested as the proportion of respondents older than 20 years that reached the highest moral level, which according to the theory should be small. A convenience sample of 339 nursing students with a mean age of 25.3 years participated. Results confirmed the simplex model structure, indicating that MDSP reflects a moral construct empirically organized from low to high. A minority of respondents >20 years of age (13.5%) scored more than 80% on the highest moral level. The findings support the construct validity of the MDSP and the stages and levels in Kohlberg’s theory. PMID:21655343
Dependence and physical exercise: Spanish validation of the Exercise Dependence Scale-Revised (EDS-R).

PubMed

Sicilia, Alvaro; González-Cutre, David

2011-05-01

The purpose of this study was to validate the Spanish version of the Exercise Dependence Scale-Revised (EDS-R). To achieve this goal, a sample of 531 sport center users was used and the psychometric properties of the EDS-R were examined through different analyses. The results supported both the first-order seven-factor model and the higher-order model (seven first-order factors and one second-order factor). The structure of both models was invariant across age. Correlations among the subscales indicated a related factor model, supporting construct validity of the scale. Alpha values over .70 (except for Reduction in Other Activities) and suitable levels of temporal stability were obtained. Users practicing more than three days per week had higher scores in all subscales than the group practicing with a frequency of three days or fewer. The findings of this study provided reliability and validity for the EDS-R in a Spanish context.
Validation and Trustworthiness of Multiscale Models of Cardiac Electrophysiology

PubMed Central

Pathmanathan, Pras; Gray, Richard A.

2018-01-01

Computational models of cardiac electrophysiology have a long history in basic science applications and device design and evaluation, but have significant potential for clinical applications in all areas of cardiovascular medicine, including functional imaging and mapping, drug safety evaluation, disease diagnosis, patient selection, and therapy optimisation or personalisation. For all stakeholders to be confident in model-based clinical decisions, cardiac electrophysiological (CEP) models must be demonstrated to be trustworthy and reliable. Credibility, that is, the belief in the predictive capability, of a computational model is primarily established by performing validation, in which model predictions are compared to experimental or clinical data. However, there are numerous challenges to performing validation for highly complex multi-scale physiological models such as CEP models. As a result, credibility of CEP model predictions is usually founded upon a wide range of distinct factors, including various types of validation results, underlying theory, evidence supporting model assumptions, evidence from model calibration, all at a variety of scales from ion channel to cell to organ. Consequently, it is often unclear, or a matter for debate, the extent to which a CEP model can be trusted for a given application. The aim of this article is to clarify potential rationale for the trustworthiness of CEP models by reviewing evidence that has been (or could be) presented to support their credibility. We specifically address the complexity and multi-scale nature of CEP models which makes traditional model evaluation difficult. In addition, we make explicit some of the credibility justification that we believe is implicitly embedded in the CEP modeling literature. Overall, we provide a fresh perspective to CEP model credibility, and build a depiction and categorisation of the wide-ranging body of credibility evidence for CEP models. This paper also represents a step toward the extension of model evaluation methodologies that are currently being developed by the medical device community, to physiological models. PMID:29497385
Prediction of muscle activation for an eye movement with finite element modeling.

PubMed

Karami, Abbas; Eghtesad, Mohammad; Haghpanah, Seyyed Arash

2017-10-01

In this paper, a 3D finite element (FE) modeling is employed in order to predict extraocular muscles' activation and investigate force coordination in various motions of the eye orbit. A continuum constitutive hyperelastic model is employed for material description in dynamic modeling of the extraocular muscles (EOMs). Two significant features of this model are accurate mass modeling with FE method and stimulating EOMs for motion through muscle activation parameter. In order to validate the eye model, a forward dynamics simulation of the eye motion is carried out by variation of the muscle activation. Furthermore, to realize muscle activation prediction in various eye motions, two different tracking-based inverse controllers are proposed. The performance of these two inverse controllers is investigated according to their resulted muscle force magnitude and muscle force coordination. The simulation results are compared with the available experimental data and the well-known existing neurological laws. The comparison authenticates both the validation and the prediction results. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
Clinical Prediction Models for Patients With Nontraumatic Knee Pain in Primary Care: A Systematic Review and Internal Validation Study.

PubMed

Panken, Guus; Verhagen, Arianne P; Terwee, Caroline B; Heymans, Martijn W

2017-08-01

Study Design Systematic review and validation study. Background Many prognostic models of knee pain outcomes have been developed for use in primary care. Variability among published studies with regard to patient population, outcome measures, and relevant prognostic factors hampers the generalizability and implementation of these models. Objectives To summarize existing prognostic models in patients with knee pain in a primary care setting and to develop and internally validate new summary prognostic models. Methods After a sensitive search strategy, 2 reviewers independently selected prognostic models for patients with nontraumatic knee pain and assessed the methodological quality of the included studies. All predictors of the included studies were evaluated, summarized, and classified. The predictors assessed in multiple studies of sufficient quality are presented in this review. Using data from the Musculoskeletal System Study (BAS) cohort of patients with a new episode of knee pain, recruited consecutively by Dutch general medical practitioners (n = 372), we used predictors with a strong level of evidence to develop new prognostic models for each outcome measure and internally validated these models. Results Sixteen studies were eligible for inclusion. We considered 11 studies to be of sufficient quality. None of these studies validated their models. Five predictors with strong evidence were related to function and 6 to recovery, and were used to compose 2 prognostic models for patients with knee pain at 1 year. Running these new models in another data set showed explained variances (R 2 ) of 0.36 (function) and 0.33 (recovery). The area under the curve of the recovery model was 0.79. After internal validation, the adjusted R 2 values of the models were 0.30 (function) and 0.20 (recovery), and the area under the curve was 0.73. Conclusion We developed 2 valid prognostic models for function and recovery for patients with nontraumatic knee pain, based on predictors with strong evidence. A longer duration of complaints predicted poorer function but did not adequately predict chance of recovery. Level of Evidence Prognosis, levels 1a and 1b. J Orthop Sports Phys Ther 2017;47(8):518-529. Epub 16 Jun 2017. doi:10.2519/jospt.2017.7142.
A systematic review of the asymmetric inheritance of cellular organelles in eukaryotes: A critique of basic science validity and imprecision

PubMed Central

Collins, Anne; Ross, Janine

2017-01-01

We performed a systematic review to identify all original publications describing the asymmetric inheritance of cellular organelles in normal animal eukaryotic cells and to critique the validity and imprecision of the evidence. Searches were performed in Embase, MEDLINE and Pubmed up to November 2015. Screening of titles, abstracts and full papers was performed by two independent reviewers. Data extraction and validity were performed by one reviewer and checked by a second reviewer. Study quality was assessed using the SYRCLE risk of bias tool, for animal studies and by developing validity tools for the experimental model, organelle markers and imprecision. A narrative data synthesis was performed. We identified 31 studies (34 publications) of the asymmetric inheritance of organelles after mitotic or meiotic division. Studies for the asymmetric inheritance of centrosomes (n = 9); endosomes (n = 6), P granules (n = 4), the midbody (n = 3), mitochondria (n = 3), proteosomes (n = 2), spectrosomes (n = 2), cilia (n = 2) and endoplasmic reticulum (n = 2) were identified. Asymmetry was defined and quantified by variable methods. Assessment of the statistical reliability of the results indicated only two studies (7%) were judged to have low concern, the majority of studies (77%) were 'unclear' and five (16%) were judged to have 'high concerns'; the main reasons were low technical repeats (<10). Assessment of model validity indicated that the majority of studies (61%) were judged to be valid, ten studies (32%) were unclear and two studies (7%) were judged to have 'high concerns'; both described 'stem cells' without providing experimental evidence to confirm this (pluripotency and self-renewal). Assessment of marker validity indicated that no studies had low concern, most studies were unclear (96.5%), indicating there were insufficient details to judge if the markers were appropriate. One study had high concern for marker validity due to the contradictory results of two markers for the same organelle. For most studies the validity and imprecision of results could not be confirmed. In particular, data were limited due to a lack of reporting of interassay variability, sample size calculations, controls and functional validation of organelle markers. An evaluation of 16 systematic reviews containing cell assays found that only 50% reported adherence to PRISMA or ARRIVE reporting guidelines and 38% reported a formal risk of bias assessment. 44% of the reviews did not consider how relevant or valid the models were to the research question. 75% reviews did not consider how valid the markers were. 69% of reviews did not consider the impact of the statistical reliability of the results. Future systematic reviews in basic or preclinical research should ensure the rigorous reporting of the statistical reliability of the results in addition to the validity of the methods. Increased awareness of the importance of reporting guidelines and validation tools is needed for the scientific community. PMID:28562636
A design of experiments approach to validation sampling for logistic regression modeling with error-prone medical records.

PubMed

Ouyang, Liwen; Apley, Daniel W; Mehrotra, Sanjay

2016-04-01

Electronic medical record (EMR) databases offer significant potential for developing clinical hypotheses and identifying disease risk associations by fitting statistical models that capture the relationship between a binary response variable and a set of predictor variables that represent clinical, phenotypical, and demographic data for the patient. However, EMR response data may be error prone for a variety of reasons. Performing a manual chart review to validate data accuracy is time consuming, which limits the number of chart reviews in a large database. The authors' objective is to develop a new design-of-experiments-based systematic chart validation and review (DSCVR) approach that is more powerful than the random validation sampling used in existing approaches. The DSCVR approach judiciously and efficiently selects the cases to validate (i.e., validate whether the response values are correct for those cases) for maximum information content, based only on their predictor variable values. The final predictive model will be fit using only the validation sample, ignoring the remainder of the unvalidated and unreliable error-prone data. A Fisher information based D-optimality criterion is used, and an algorithm for optimizing it is developed. The authors' method is tested in a simulation comparison that is based on a sudden cardiac arrest case study with 23 041 patients' records. This DSCVR approach, using the Fisher information based D-optimality criterion, results in a fitted model with much better predictive performance, as measured by the receiver operating characteristic curve and the accuracy in predicting whether a patient will experience the event, than a model fitted using a random validation sample. The simulation comparisons demonstrate that this DSCVR approach can produce predictive models that are significantly better than those produced from random validation sampling, especially when the event rate is low. © The Author 2015. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the American Medical Informatics Association. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please email: journals.permissions@oup.com.
Predicting Overall Survival After Stereotactic Ablative Radiation Therapy in Early-Stage Lung Cancer: Development and External Validation of the Amsterdam Prognostic Model

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Louie, Alexander V., E-mail: Dr.alexlouie@gmail.com; Department of Radiation Oncology, London Regional Cancer Program, University of Western Ontario, London, Ontario; Department of Epidemiology, Harvard School of Public Health, Harvard University, Boston, Massachusetts

Purpose: A prognostic model for 5-year overall survival (OS), consisting of recursive partitioning analysis (RPA) and a nomogram, was developed for patients with early-stage non-small cell lung cancer (ES-NSCLC) treated with stereotactic ablative radiation therapy (SABR). Methods and Materials: A primary dataset of 703 ES-NSCLC SABR patients was randomly divided into a training (67%) and an internal validation (33%) dataset. In the former group, 21 unique parameters consisting of patient, treatment, and tumor factors were entered into an RPA model to predict OS. Univariate and multivariate models were constructed for RPA-selected factors to evaluate their relationship with OS. A nomogrammore » for OS was constructed based on factors significant in multivariate modeling and validated with calibration plots. Both the RPA and the nomogram were externally validated in independent surgical (n=193) and SABR (n=543) datasets. Results: RPA identified 2 distinct risk classes based on tumor diameter, age, World Health Organization performance status (PS) and Charlson comorbidity index. This RPA had moderate discrimination in SABR datasets (c-index range: 0.52-0.60) but was of limited value in the surgical validation cohort. The nomogram predicting OS included smoking history in addition to RPA-identified factors. In contrast to RPA, validation of the nomogram performed well in internal validation (r{sup 2}=0.97) and external SABR (r{sup 2}=0.79) and surgical cohorts (r{sup 2}=0.91). Conclusions: The Amsterdam prognostic model is the first externally validated prognostication tool for OS in ES-NSCLC treated with SABR available to individualize patient decision making. The nomogram retained strong performance across surgical and SABR external validation datasets. RPA performance was poor in surgical patients, suggesting that 2 different distinct patient populations are being treated with these 2 effective modalities.« less
Validation of the thermal code of RadTherm-IR, IR-Workbench, and F-TOM

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schwenger, Frédéric; Grossmann, Peter; Malaplate, Alain

2009-05-01

System assessment by image simulation requires synthetic scenarios that can be viewed by the device to be simulated. In addition to physical modeling of the camera, a reliable modeling of scene elements is necessary. Software products for modeling of target data in the IR should be capable of (i) predicting surface temperatures of scene elements over a long period of time and (ii) computing sensor views of the scenario. For such applications, FGAN-FOM acquired the software products RadTherm-IR (ThermoAnalytics Inc., Calumet, USA; IR-Workbench (OKTAL-SE, Toulouse, France). Inspection of the accuracy of simulation results by validation is necessary before using these products for applications. In the first step of validation, the performance of both "thermal solvers" was determined through comparison of the computed diurnal surface temperatures of a simple object with the corresponding values from measurements. CUBI is a rather simple geometric object with well known material parameters which makes it suitable for testing and validating object models in IR. It was used in this study as a test body. Comparison of calculated and measured surface temperature values will be presented, together with the results from the FGAN-FOM thermal object code F-TOM. In the second validation step, radiances of the simulated sensor views computed by RadTherm-IR and IR-Workbench will be compared with radiances retrieved from the recorded sensor images taken by the sensor that was simulated. Strengths and weaknesses of the models RadTherm-IR, IR-Workbench and F-TOM will be discussed.
QSPR model for bioconcentration factors of nonpolar organic compounds using molecular electronegativity distance vector descriptors.

PubMed

Qin, Li-Tang; Liu, Shu-Shen; Liu, Hai-Ling

2010-02-01

A five-variable model (model M2) was developed for the bioconcentration factors (BCFs) of nonpolar organic compounds (NPOCs) by using molecular electronegativity distance vector (MEDV) to characterize the structures of NPOCs and variable selection and modeling based on prediction (VSMP) to select the optimum descriptors. The estimated correlation coefficient (r (2)) and the leave-one-out cross-validation correlation coefficients (q (2)) of model M2 were 0.9271 and 0.9171, respectively. The model was externally validated by splitting the whole data set into a representative training set of 85 chemicals and a validation set of 29 chemicals. The results show that the main structural factors influencing the BCFs of NPOCs are -cCc, cCcc, -Cl, and -Br (where "-" refers to a single bond and "c" refers to a conjugated bond). The quantitative structure-property relationship (QSPR) model can effectively predict the BCFs of NPOCs, and the predictions of the model can also extend the current BCF database of experimental values.
MO-C-17A-03: A GPU-Based Method for Validating Deformable Image Registration in Head and Neck Radiotherapy Using Biomechanical Modeling

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Neylon, J; Min, Y; Qi, S

2014-06-15

Purpose: Deformable image registration (DIR) plays a pivotal role in head and neck adaptive radiotherapy but a systematic validation of DIR algorithms has been limited by a lack of quantitative high-resolution groundtruth. We address this limitation by developing a GPU-based framework that provides a systematic DIR validation by generating (a) model-guided synthetic CTs representing posture and physiological changes, and (b) model-guided landmark-based validation. Method: The GPU-based framework was developed to generate massive mass-spring biomechanical models from patient simulation CTs and contoured structures. The biomechanical model represented soft tissue deformations for known rigid skeletal motion. Posture changes were simulated by articulatingmore » skeletal anatomy, which subsequently applied elastic corrective forces upon the soft tissue. Physiological changes such as tumor regression and weight loss were simulated in a biomechanically precise manner. Synthetic CT data was then generated from the deformed anatomy. The initial and final positions for one hundred randomly-chosen mass elements inside each of the internal contoured structures were recorded as ground truth data. The process was automated to create 45 synthetic CT datasets for a given patient CT. For instance, the head rotation was varied between +/− 4 degrees along each axis, and tumor volumes were systematically reduced up to 30%. Finally, the original CT and deformed synthetic CT were registered using an optical flow based DIR. Results: Each synthetic data creation took approximately 28 seconds of computation time. The number of landmarks per data set varied between two and three thousand. The validation method is able to perform sub-voxel analysis of the DIR, and report the results by structure, giving a much more in depth investigation of the error. Conclusions: We presented a GPU based high-resolution biomechanical head and neck model to validate DIR algorithms by generating CT equivalent 3D volumes with simulated posture changes and physiological regression.« less
Numerical modelling of transdermal delivery from matrix systems: parametric study and experimental validation with silicone matrices.

PubMed

Snorradóttir, Bergthóra S; Jónsdóttir, Fjóla; Sigurdsson, Sven Th; Másson, Már

2014-08-01

A model is presented for transdermal drug delivery from single-layered silicone matrix systems. The work is based on our previous results that, in particular, extend the well-known Higuchi model. Recently, we have introduced a numerical transient model describing matrix systems where the drug dissolution can be non-instantaneous. Furthermore, our model can describe complex interactions within a multi-layered matrix and the matrix to skin boundary. The power of the modelling approach presented here is further illustrated by allowing the possibility of a donor solution. The model is validated by a comparison with experimental data, as well as validating the parameter values against each other, using various configurations with donor solution, silicone matrix and skin. Our results show that the model is a good approximation to real multi-layered delivery systems. The model offers the ability of comparing drug release for ibuprofen and diclofenac, which cannot be analysed by the Higuchi model because the dissolution in the latter case turns out to be limited. The experiments and numerical model outlined in this study could also be adjusted to more general formulations, which enhances the utility of the numerical model as a design tool for the development of drug-loaded matrices for trans-membrane and transdermal delivery. © 2014 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. and the American Pharmacists Association.
Evidence of Convergent and Discriminant Validity of Child, Teacher, and Peer Reports of Teacher-Student Support

PubMed Central

Li, Yan; Hughes, Jan N.; Kwok, Oi-man; Hsu, Hsien-Yuan

2012-01-01

This study investigated the construct validity of measures of teacher-student support in a sample of 709 ethnically diverse second and third grade academically at-risk students. Confirmatory factor analysis investigated the convergent and discriminant validities of teacher, child, and peer reports of teacher-student support and child conduct problems. Results supported the convergent and discriminant validity of scores on the measures. Peer reports accounted for the largest proportion of trait variance and non-significant method variance. Child reports accounted for the smallest proportion of trait variance and the largest method variance. A model with two latent factors provided a better fit to the data than a model with one factor, providing further evidence of the discriminant validity of measures of teacher-student support. Implications for research, policy, and practice are discussed. PMID:21767024

An Approach for Validating Actinide and Fission Product Burnup Credit Criticality Safety Analyses: Criticality (k eff) Predictions

DOE PAGES

Scaglione, John M.; Mueller, Don E.; Wagner, John C.

2014-12-01

One of the most important remaining challenges associated with expanded implementation of burnup credit in the United States is the validation of depletion and criticality calculations used in the safety evaluation—in particular, the availability and use of applicable measured data to support validation, especially for fission products (FPs). Applicants and regulatory reviewers have been constrained by both a scarcity of data and a lack of clear technical basis or approach for use of the data. In this study, this paper describes a validation approach for commercial spent nuclear fuel (SNF) criticality safety (k eff) evaluations based on best-available data andmore » methods and applies the approach for representative SNF storage and transport configurations/conditions to demonstrate its usage and applicability, as well as to provide reference bias results. The criticality validation approach utilizes not only available laboratory critical experiment (LCE) data from the International Handbook of Evaluated Criticality Safety Benchmark Experiments and the French Haut Taux de Combustion program to support validation of the principal actinides but also calculated sensitivities, nuclear data uncertainties, and limited available FP LCE data to predict and verify individual biases for relevant minor actinides and FPs. The results demonstrate that (a) sufficient critical experiment data exist to adequately validate k eff calculations via conventional validation approaches for the primary actinides, (b) sensitivity-based critical experiment selection is more appropriate for generating accurate application model bias and uncertainty, and (c) calculated sensitivities and nuclear data uncertainties can be used for generating conservative estimates of bias for minor actinides and FPs. Results based on the SCALE 6.1 and the ENDF/B-VII.0 cross-section libraries indicate that a conservative estimate of the bias for the minor actinides and FPs is 1.5% of their worth within the application model. Finally, this paper provides a detailed description of the approach and its technical bases, describes the application of the approach for representative pressurized water reactor and boiling water reactor safety analysis models, and provides reference bias results based on the prerelease SCALE 6.1 code package and ENDF/B-VII nuclear cross-section data.« less
Development, Validation and Parametric study of a 3-Year-Old Child Head Finite Element Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cui, Shihai; Chen, Yue; Li, Haiyan; Ruan, ShiJie

2015-12-01

Traumatic brain injury caused by drop and traffic accidents is an important reason for children's death and disability. Recently, the computer finite element (FE) head model has been developed to investigate brain injury mechanism and biomechanical responses. Based on CT data of a healthy 3-year-old child head, the FE head model with detailed anatomical structure was developed. The deep brain structures such as white matter, gray matter, cerebral ventricle, hippocampus, were firstly created in this FE model. The FE model was validated by comparing the simulation results with that of cadaver experiments based on reconstructing the child and adult cadaver experiments. In addition, the effects of skull stiffness on the child head dynamic responses were further investigated. All the simulation results confirmed the good biofidelity of the FE model.
The importance of measuring growth in response to intervention models: Testing a core assumption✩

PubMed Central

Schatschneider, Christopher; Wagner, Richard K.; Crawford, Elizabeth C.

2011-01-01

A core assumption of response to instruction or intervention (RTI) models is the importance of measuring growth in achievement over time in response to effective instruction or intervention. Many RTI models actively monitor growth for identifying individuals who need different levels of intervention. A large-scale (N=23,438), two-year longitudinal study of first grade children was carried out to compare the predictive validity of measures of achievement status, growth in achievement, and their combination for predicting future reading achievement. The results indicate that under typical conditions, measures of growth do not make a contribution to prediction that is independent of measures of achievement status. These results question the validity of a core assumption of RTI models. PMID:22224065
Model Calibration Efforts for the International Space Station's Solar Array Mast

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Elliott, Kenny B.; Horta, Lucas G.; Templeton, Justin D.; Knight, Norman F., Jr.

2012-01-01

The International Space Station (ISS) relies on sixteen solar-voltaic blankets to provide electrical power to the station. Each pair of blankets is supported by a deployable boom called the Folding Articulated Square Truss Mast (FAST Mast). At certain ISS attitudes, the solar arrays can be positioned in such a way that shadowing of either one or three longerons causes an unexpected asymmetric thermal loading that if unchecked can exceed the operational stability limits of the mast. Work in this paper documents part of an independent NASA Engineering and Safety Center effort to assess the existing operational limits. Because of the complexity of the system, the problem is being worked using a building-block progression from components (longerons), to units (single or multiple bays), to assembly (full mast). The paper presents results from efforts to calibrate the longeron components. The work includes experimental testing of two types of longerons (straight and tapered), development of Finite Element (FE) models, development of parameter uncertainty models, and the establishment of a calibration and validation process to demonstrate adequacy of the models. Models in the context of this paper refer to both FE model and probabilistic parameter models. Results from model calibration of the straight longerons show that the model is capable of predicting the mean load, axial strain, and bending strain. For validation, parameter values obtained from calibration of straight longerons are used to validate experimental results for the tapered longerons.
Standards and Guidelines for Numerical Models for Tsunami Hazard Mitigation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Titov, V.; Gonzalez, F.; Kanoglu, U.; Yalciner, A.; Synolakis, C. E.

2006-12-01

An increased number of nations around the workd need to develop tsunami mitigation plans which invariably involve inundation maps for warning guidance and evacuation planning. There is the risk that inundation maps may be produced with older or untested methodology, as there are currently no standards for modeling tools. In the aftermath of the 2004 megatsunami, some models were used to model inundation for Cascadia events with results much larger than sediment records and existing state-of-the-art studies suggest leading to confusion among emergency management. Incorrectly assessing tsunami impact is hazardous, as recent events in 2006 in Tonga, Kythira, Greece and Central Java have suggested (Synolakis and Bernard, 2006). To calculate tsunami currents, forces and runup on coastal structures, and inundation of coastlines one must calculate the evolution of the tsunami wave from the deep ocean to its target site, numerically. No matter what the numerical model, validation (the process of ensuring that the model solves the parent equations of motion accurately) and verification (the process of ensuring that the model used represents geophysical reality appropriately) both are an essential. Validation ensures that the model performs well in a wide range of circumstances and is accomplished through comparison with analytical solutions. Verification ensures that the computational code performs well over a range of geophysical problems. A few analytic solutions have been validated themselves with laboratory data. Even fewer existing numerical models have been both validated with the analytical solutions and verified with both laboratory measurements and field measurements, thus establishing a gold standard for numerical codes for inundation mapping. While there is in principle no absolute certainty that a numerical code that has performed well in all the benchmark tests will also produce correct inundation predictions with any given source motions, validated codes reduce the level of uncertainty in their results to the uncertainty in the geophysical initial conditions. Further, when coupled with real--time free--field tsunami measurements from tsunameters, validated codes are the only choice for realistic forecasting of inundation; the consequences of failure are too ghastly to take chances with numerical procedures that have not been validated. We discuss a ten step process of benchmark tests for models used for inundation mapping. The associated methodology and algorithmes have to first be validated with analytical solutions, then verified with laboratory measurements and field data. The models need to be published in the scientific literature in peer-review journals indexed by ISI. While this process may appear onerous, it reflects our state of knowledge, and is the only defensible methodology when human lives are at stake. Synolakis, C.E., and Bernard, E.N, Tsunami science before and beyond Boxing Day 2004, Phil. Trans. R. Soc. A 364 1845, 2231--2263, 2005.
Small-signal model for the series resonant converter

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

King, R. J.; Stuart, T. A.

1985-01-01

The results of a previous discrete-time model of the series resonant dc-dc converter are reviewed and from these a small signal dynamic model is derived. This model is valid for low frequencies and is based on the modulation of the diode conduction angle for control. The basic converter is modeled separately from its output filter to facilitate the use of these results for design purposes. Experimental results are presented.
A Psychometric Analysis of the Italian Version of the eHealth Literacy Scale Using Item Response and Classical Test Theory Methods

PubMed Central

Dima, Alexandra Lelia; Schulz, Peter Johannes

2017-01-01

Background The eHealth Literacy Scale (eHEALS) is a tool to assess consumers’ comfort and skills in using information technologies for health. Although evidence exists of reliability and construct validity of the scale, less agreement exists on structural validity. Objective The aim of this study was to validate the Italian version of the eHealth Literacy Scale (I-eHEALS) in a community sample with a focus on its structural validity, by applying psychometric techniques that account for item difficulty. Methods Two Web-based surveys were conducted among a total of 296 people living in the Italian-speaking region of Switzerland (Ticino). After examining the latent variables underlying the observed variables of the Italian scale via principal component analysis (PCA), fit indices for two alternative models were calculated using confirmatory factor analysis (CFA). The scale structure was examined via parametric and nonparametric item response theory (IRT) analyses accounting for differences between items regarding the proportion of answers indicating high ability. Convergent validity was assessed by correlations with theoretically related constructs. Results CFA showed a suboptimal model fit for both models. IRT analyses confirmed all items measure a single dimension as intended. Reliability and construct validity of the final scale were also confirmed. The contrasting results of factor analysis (FA) and IRT analyses highlight the importance of considering differences in item difficulty when examining health literacy scales. Conclusions The findings support the reliability and validity of the translated scale and its use for assessing Italian-speaking consumers’ eHealth literacy. PMID:28400356
Parameter Optimisation and Uncertainty Analysis in Visual MODFLOW based Flow Model for predicting the groundwater head in an Eastern Indian Aquifer

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mohanty, B.; Jena, S.; Panda, R. K.

2016-12-01

The overexploitation of groundwater elicited in abandoning several shallow tube wells in the study Basin in Eastern India. For the sustainability of groundwater resources, basin-scale modelling of groundwater flow is indispensable for the effective planning and management of the water resources. The basic intent of this study is to develop a 3-D groundwater flow model of the study basin using the Visual MODFLOW Flex 2014.2 package and successfully calibrate and validate the model using 17 years of observed data. The sensitivity analysis was carried out to quantify the susceptibility of aquifer system to the river bank seepage, recharge from rainfall and agriculture practices, horizontal and vertical hydraulic conductivities, and specific yield. To quantify the impact of parameter uncertainties, Sequential Uncertainty Fitting Algorithm (SUFI-2) and Markov chain Monte Carlo (McMC) techniques were implemented. Results from the two techniques were compared and the advantages and disadvantages were analysed. Nash-Sutcliffe coefficient (NSE), Coefficient of Determination (R2), Mean Absolute Error (MAE), Mean Percent Deviation (Dv) and Root Mean Squared Error (RMSE) were adopted as criteria of model evaluation during calibration and validation of the developed model. NSE, R2, MAE, Dv and RMSE values for groundwater flow model during calibration and validation were in acceptable range. Also, the McMC technique was able to provide more reasonable results than SUFI-2. The calibrated and validated model will be useful to identify the aquifer properties, analyse the groundwater flow dynamics and the change in groundwater levels in future forecasts.
Results and Validation of MODIS Aerosol Retrievals Over Land and Ocean

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Remer, Lorraine; Einaudi, Franco (Technical Monitor)

2001-01-01

The MODerate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) instrument aboard the Terra spacecraft has been retrieving aerosol parameters since late February 2000. Initial qualitative checking of the products showed very promising results including matching of land and ocean retrievals at coastlines. Using AERONET ground-based radiometers as our primary validation tool, we have established quantitative validation as well. Our results show that for most aerosol types, the MODIS products fall within the pre-launch estimated uncertainties. Surface reflectance and aerosol model assumptions appear to be sufficiently accurate for the optical thickness retrieval. Dust provides a possible exception, which may be due to non-spherical effects. Over ocean the MODIS products include information on particle size, and these parameters are also validated with AERONET retrievals.
Results and Validation of MODIS Aerosol Retrievals over Land and Ocean

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Remer, L. A.; Kaufman, Y. J.; Tanre, D.; Ichoku, C.; Chu, D. A.; Mattoo, S.; Levy, R.; Martins, J. V.; Li, R.-R.; Einaudi, Franco (Technical Monitor)

2000-01-01

The MODerate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) instrument aboard the Terra spacecraft has been retrieving aerosol parameters since late February 2000. Initial qualitative checking of the products showed very promising results including matching of land and ocean retrievals at coastlines. Using AERONET ground-based radiometers as our primary validation tool, we have established quantitative validation as well. Our results show that for most aerosol types, the MODIS products fall within the pre-launch estimated uncertainties. Surface reflectance and aerosol model assumptions appear to be sufficiently accurate for the optical thickness retrieval. Dust provides a possible exception, which may be due to non-spherical effects. Over ocean the MODIS products include information on particle size, and these parameters are also validated with AERONET retrievals.
Comparison and validation of acoustic response models for wind noise reduction pipe arrays

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Marty, Julien; Denis, Stéphane; Gabrielson, Thomas

The detection capability of the infrasound component of the International Monitoring System (IMS) is tightly linked to the performance of its wind noise reduction systems. The wind noise reduction solution implemented at all IMS infrasound measurement systems consists of a spatial distribution of air inlets connected to the infrasound sensor through a network of pipes. This system, usually referred to as “pipe array,” has proven its efficiency in operational conditions. The objective of this paper is to present the results of the comparison and validation of three distinct acoustic response models for pipe arrays. The characteristics of the models andmore » the results obtained for a defined set of pipe array configurations are described. A field experiment using a newly developed infrasound generator, dedicated to the validation of these models, is then presented. The comparison between the modeled and empirical acoustic responses shows that two of the three models can be confidently used to estimate pipe array acoustic responses. Lastly, this study paves the way to the deconvolution of IMS infrasound data from pipe array responses and to the optimization of pipe array design to IMS applications.« less
Comparison and validation of acoustic response models for wind noise reduction pipe arrays

DOE PAGES

Marty, Julien; Denis, Stéphane; Gabrielson, Thomas; ...

2017-02-13

The detection capability of the infrasound component of the International Monitoring System (IMS) is tightly linked to the performance of its wind noise reduction systems. The wind noise reduction solution implemented at all IMS infrasound measurement systems consists of a spatial distribution of air inlets connected to the infrasound sensor through a network of pipes. This system, usually referred to as “pipe array,” has proven its efficiency in operational conditions. The objective of this paper is to present the results of the comparison and validation of three distinct acoustic response models for pipe arrays. The characteristics of the models andmore » the results obtained for a defined set of pipe array configurations are described. A field experiment using a newly developed infrasound generator, dedicated to the validation of these models, is then presented. The comparison between the modeled and empirical acoustic responses shows that two of the three models can be confidently used to estimate pipe array acoustic responses. Lastly, this study paves the way to the deconvolution of IMS infrasound data from pipe array responses and to the optimization of pipe array design to IMS applications.« less
Application of aerosol speciation data as an in situ dust proxy for validation of the Dust Regional Atmospheric Model (DREAM)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shaw, Patrick

The Dust REgional Atmospheric Model (DREAM) predicts concentrations of mineral dust aerosols in time and space, but validation is challenging with current in situ particulate matter (PM) concentration measurements. Measured levels of ambient PM often contain anthropogenic components as well as windblown mineral dust. In this study, two approaches to model validation were performed with data from preexisting air quality monitoring networks: using hourly concentrations of total PM with aerodynamic diameter less than 2.5 μm (PM 2.5); and using a daily averaged speciation-derived soil component. Validation analyses were performed for point locations within the cities of El Paso (TX), Austin (TX), Phoenix (AZ), Salt Lake City (UT) and Bakersfield (CA) for most of 2006. Hourly modeled PM 2.5 did not validate at all with hourly observations among the sites (combined R < 0.00, N = 24,302 hourly values). Aerosol chemical speciation data distinguished between mineral (soil) dust from anthropogenic ambient PM. As expected, statistically significant improvements in correlation among all stations (combined R = 0.16, N = 343 daily values) were found when the soil component alone was used to validate DREAM. The validation biases that result from anthropogenic aerosols were also reduced using the soil component. This is seen in the reduction of the root mean square error between hourly in situ versus hourly modeled (RMSE hourly = 18.6 μg m -3) and 24-h in situ speciation values versus daily averaged observed (RMSE soil = 12.0 μg m -3). However, the lack of a total reduction in RMSE indicates there is still room for improvement in the model. While the soil component is the theoretical proxy of choice for a dust transport model, the current sparse and infrequent sampling is not ideal for routine hourly air quality forecast validation.
Comparison of two weighted integration models for the cueing task: linear and likelihood

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Shimozaki, Steven S.; Eckstein, Miguel P.; Abbey, Craig K.

2003-01-01

In a task in which the observer must detect a signal at two locations, presenting a precue that predicts the location of a signal leads to improved performance with a valid cue (signal location matches the cue), compared to an invalid cue (signal location does not match the cue). The cue validity effect has often been explained with a limited capacity attentional mechanism improving the perceptual quality at the cued location. Alternatively, the cueing effect can also be explained by unlimited capacity models that assume a weighted combination of noisy responses across the two locations. We compare two weighted integration models, a linear model and a sum of weighted likelihoods model based on a Bayesian observer. While qualitatively these models are similar, quantitatively they predict different cue validity effects as the signal-to-noise ratios (SNR) increase. To test these models, 3 observers performed in a cued discrimination task of Gaussian targets with an 80% valid precue across a broad range of SNR's. Analysis of a limited capacity attentional switching model was also included and rejected. The sum of weighted likelihoods model best described the psychophysical results, suggesting that human observers approximate a weighted combination of likelihoods, and not a weighted linear combination.
Are Model Transferability And Complexity Antithetical? Insights From Validation of a Variable-Complexity Empirical Snow Model in Space and Time

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lute, A. C.; Luce, Charles H.

2017-11-01

The related challenges of predictions in ungauged basins and predictions in ungauged climates point to the need to develop environmental models that are transferable across both space and time. Hydrologic modeling has historically focused on modelling one or only a few basins using highly parameterized conceptual or physically based models. However, model parameters and structures have been shown to change significantly when calibrated to new basins or time periods, suggesting that model complexity and model transferability may be antithetical. Empirical space-for-time models provide a framework within which to assess model transferability and any tradeoff with model complexity. Using 497 SNOTEL sites in the western U.S., we develop space-for-time models of April 1 SWE and Snow Residence Time based on mean winter temperature and cumulative winter precipitation. The transferability of the models to new conditions (in both space and time) is assessed using non-random cross-validation tests with consideration of the influence of model complexity on transferability. As others have noted, the algorithmic empirical models transfer best when minimal extrapolation in input variables is required. Temporal split-sample validations use pseudoreplicated samples, resulting in the selection of overly complex models, which has implications for the design of hydrologic model validation tests. Finally, we show that low to moderate complexity models transfer most successfully to new conditions in space and time, providing empirical confirmation of the parsimony principal.
Statistical Calibration and Validation of a Homogeneous Ventilated Wall-Interference Correction Method for the National Transonic Facility

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Walker, Eric L.

2005-01-01

Wind tunnel experiments will continue to be a primary source of validation data for many types of mathematical and computational models in the aerospace industry. The increased emphasis on accuracy of data acquired from these facilities requires understanding of the uncertainty of not only the measurement data but also any correction applied to the data. One of the largest and most critical corrections made to these data is due to wall interference. In an effort to understand the accuracy and suitability of these corrections, a statistical validation process for wall interference correction methods has been developed. This process is based on the use of independent cases which, after correction, are expected to produce the same result. Comparison of these independent cases with respect to the uncertainty in the correction process establishes a domain of applicability based on the capability of the method to provide reasonable corrections with respect to customer accuracy requirements. The statistical validation method was applied to the version of the Transonic Wall Interference Correction System (TWICS) recently implemented in the National Transonic Facility at NASA Langley Research Center. The TWICS code generates corrections for solid and slotted wall interference in the model pitch plane based on boundary pressure measurements. Before validation could be performed on this method, it was necessary to calibrate the ventilated wall boundary condition parameters. Discrimination comparisons are used to determine the most representative of three linear boundary condition models which have historically been used to represent longitudinally slotted test section walls. Of the three linear boundary condition models implemented for ventilated walls, the general slotted wall model was the most representative of the data. The TWICS code using the calibrated general slotted wall model was found to be valid to within the process uncertainty for test section Mach numbers less than or equal to 0.60. The scatter among the mean corrected results of the bodies of revolution validation cases was within one count of drag on a typical transport aircraft configuration for Mach numbers at or below 0.80 and two counts of drag for Mach numbers at or below 0.90.
Modeling the Relationship between Safety Climate and Safety Performance in a Developing Construction Industry: A Cross-Cultural Validation Study

PubMed Central

Zahoor, Hafiz; Chan, Albert P. C.; Utama, Wahyudi P.; Gao, Ran; Zafar, Irfan

2017-01-01

This study attempts to validate a safety performance (SP) measurement model in the cross-cultural setting of a developing country. In addition, it highlights the variations in investigating the relationship between safety climate (SC) factors and SP indicators. The data were collected from forty under-construction multi-storey building projects in Pakistan. Based on the results of exploratory factor analysis, a SP measurement model was hypothesized. It was tested and validated by conducting confirmatory factor analysis on calibration and validation sub-samples respectively. The study confirmed the significant positive impact of SC on safety compliance and safety participation, and negative impact on number of self-reported accidents/injuries. However, number of near-misses could not be retained in the final SP model because it attained a lower standardized path coefficient value. Moreover, instead of safety participation, safety compliance established a stronger impact on SP. The study uncovered safety enforcement and promotion as a novel SC factor, whereas safety rules and work practices was identified as the most neglected factor. The study contributed to the body of knowledge by unveiling the deviations in existing dimensions of SC and SP. The refined model is expected to concisely measure the SP in the Pakistani construction industry, however, caution must be exercised while generalizing the study results to other developing countries. PMID:28350366
Modeling the Relationship between Safety Climate and Safety Performance in a Developing Construction Industry: A Cross-Cultural Validation Study.

PubMed

Zahoor, Hafiz; Chan, Albert P C; Utama, Wahyudi P; Gao, Ran; Zafar, Irfan

2017-03-28

This study attempts to validate a safety performance (SP) measurement model in the cross-cultural setting of a developing country. In addition, it highlights the variations in investigating the relationship between safety climate (SC) factors and SP indicators. The data were collected from forty under-construction multi-storey building projects in Pakistan. Based on the results of exploratory factor analysis, a SP measurement model was hypothesized. It was tested and validated by conducting confirmatory factor analysis on calibration and validation sub-samples respectively. The study confirmed the significant positive impact of SC on safety compliance and safety participation , and negative impact on number of self-reported accidents/injuries . However, number of near-misses could not be retained in the final SP model because it attained a lower standardized path coefficient value. Moreover, instead of safety participation , safety compliance established a stronger impact on SP. The study uncovered safety enforcement and promotion as a novel SC factor, whereas safety rules and work practices was identified as the most neglected factor. The study contributed to the body of knowledge by unveiling the deviations in existing dimensions of SC and SP. The refined model is expected to concisely measure the SP in the Pakistani construction industry, however, caution must be exercised while generalizing the study results to other developing countries.
Validation of the BASALT model for simulating off-axis hydrothermal circulation in oceanic crust

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Farahat, Navah X.; Archer, David; Abbot, Dorian S.

2017-08-01

Fluid recharge and discharge between the deep ocean and the porous upper layer of off-axis oceanic crust tends to concentrate in small volumes of rock, such as seamounts and fractures, that are unimpeded by low-permeability sediments. Basement structure, sediment burial, heat flow, and other regional characteristics of off-axis hydrothermal systems appear to produce considerable diversity of circulation behaviors. Circulation of seawater and seawater-derived fluids controls the extent of fluid-rock interaction, resulting in significant geochemical impacts. However, the primary regional characteristics that control how seawater is distributed within upper oceanic crust are still poorly understood. In this paper we present the details of the two-dimensional (2-D) BASALT (Basement Activity Simulated At Low Temperatures) numerical model of heat and fluid transport in an off-axis hydrothermal system. This model is designed to simulate a wide range of conditions in order to explore the dominant controls on circulation. We validate the BASALT model's ability to reproduce observations by configuring it to represent a thoroughly studied transect of the Juan de Fuca Ridge eastern flank. The results demonstrate that including series of narrow, ridge-parallel fractures as subgrid features produces a realistic circulation scenario at the validation site. In future projects, a full reactive transport version of the validated BASALT model will be used to explore geochemical fluxes in a variety of off-axis hydrothermal environments.
Estimation of Critical Gap Based on Raff's Definition

PubMed Central

Guo, Rui-jun; Wang, Xiao-jing; Wang, Wan-xiang

2014-01-01

Critical gap is an important parameter used to calculate the capacity and delay of minor road in gap acceptance theory of unsignalized intersections. At an unsignalized intersection with two one-way traffic flows, it is assumed that two events are independent between vehicles' arrival of major stream and vehicles' arrival of minor stream. The headways of major stream follow M3 distribution. Based on Raff's definition of critical gap, two calculation models are derived, which are named M3 definition model and revised Raff's model. Both models use total rejected coefficient. Different calculation models are compared by simulation and new models are found to be valid. The conclusion reveals that M3 definition model is simple and valid. Revised Raff's model strictly obeys the definition of Raff's critical gap and its application field is more extensive than Raff's model. It can get a more accurate result than the former Raff's model. The M3 definition model and revised Raff's model can derive accordant result. PMID:25574160

Estimation of critical gap based on Raff's definition.

PubMed

Guo, Rui-jun; Wang, Xiao-jing; Wang, Wan-xiang

2014-01-01

Critical gap is an important parameter used to calculate the capacity and delay of minor road in gap acceptance theory of unsignalized intersections. At an unsignalized intersection with two one-way traffic flows, it is assumed that two events are independent between vehicles' arrival of major stream and vehicles' arrival of minor stream. The headways of major stream follow M3 distribution. Based on Raff's definition of critical gap, two calculation models are derived, which are named M3 definition model and revised Raff's model. Both models use total rejected coefficient. Different calculation models are compared by simulation and new models are found to be valid. The conclusion reveals that M3 definition model is simple and valid. Revised Raff's model strictly obeys the definition of Raff's critical gap and its application field is more extensive than Raff's model. It can get a more accurate result than the former Raff's model. The M3 definition model and revised Raff's model can derive accordant result.
Validating spatiotemporal predictions of an important pest of small grains.

PubMed

Merrill, Scott C; Holtzer, Thomas O; Peairs, Frank B; Lester, Philip J

2015-01-01

Arthropod pests are typically managed using tactics applied uniformly to the whole field. Precision pest management applies tactics under the assumption that within-field pest pressure differences exist. This approach allows for more precise and judicious use of scouting resources and management tactics. For example, a portion of a field delineated as attractive to pests may be selected to receive extra monitoring attention. Likely because of the high variability in pest dynamics, little attention has been given to developing precision pest prediction models. Here, multimodel synthesis was used to develop a spatiotemporal model predicting the density of a key pest of wheat, the Russian wheat aphid, Diuraphis noxia (Kurdjumov). Spatially implicit and spatially explicit models were synthesized to generate spatiotemporal pest pressure predictions. Cross-validation and field validation were used to confirm model efficacy. A strong within-field signal depicting aphid density was confirmed with low prediction errors. Results show that the within-field model predictions will provide higher-quality information than would be provided by traditional field scouting. With improvements to the broad-scale model component, the model synthesis approach and resulting tool could improve pest management strategy and provide a template for the development of spatially explicit pest pressure models. © 2014 Society of Chemical Industry.
Modeling and validation of photometric characteristics of space targets oriented to space-based observation.

PubMed

Wang, Hongyuan; Zhang, Wei; Dong, Aotuo

2012-11-10

A modeling and validation method of photometric characteristics of the space target was presented in order to track and identify different satellites effectively. The background radiation characteristics models of the target were built based on blackbody radiation theory. The geometry characteristics of the target were illustrated by the surface equations based on its body coordinate system. The material characteristics of the target surface were described by a bidirectional reflectance distribution function model, which considers the character of surface Gauss statistics and microscale self-shadow and is obtained by measurement and modeling in advance. The contributing surfaces of the target to observation system were determined by coordinate transformation according to the relative position of the space-based target, the background radiation sources, and the observation platform. Then a mathematical model on photometric characteristics of the space target was built by summing reflection components of all the surfaces. Photometric characteristics simulation of the space-based target was achieved according to its given geometrical dimensions, physical parameters, and orbital parameters. Experimental validation was made based on the scale model of the satellite. The calculated results fit well with the measured results, which indicates the modeling method of photometric characteristics of the space target is correct.
Validation of a new plasmapause model derived from CHAMP field-aligned current signatures

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Heilig, Balázs; Darrouzet, Fabien; Vellante, Massimo; Lichtenberger, János; Lühr, Hermann

2014-05-01

Recently a new model for the plasmapause location in the equatorial plane was introduced based on magnetic field observations made by the CHAMP satellite in the topside ionosphere (Heilig and Lühr, 2013). Related signals are medium-scale field-aligned currents (MSFAC) (some 10km scale size). An empirical model for the MSFAC boundary was developed as a function of Kp and MLT. The MSFAC model then was compared to in situ plasmapause observations of IMAGE RPI. By considering this systematic displacement resulting from this comparison and by taking into account the diurnal variation and Kp-dependence of the residuals an empirical model of the plasmapause location that is based on MSFAC measurements from CHAMP was constructed. As a first step toward validation of the new plasmapause model we used in-situ (Van Allen Probes/EMFISIS, Cluster/WHISPER) and ground based (EMMA) plasma density observations. Preliminary results show a good agreement in general between the model and observations. Some observed differences stem from the different definitions of the plasmapause. A more detailed validation of the method can take place as soon as SWARM and VAP data become available. Heilig, B., and H. Lühr (2013) New plasmapause model derived from CHAMP field-aligned current signatures, Ann. Geophys., 31, 529-539, doi:10.5194/angeo-31-529-2013
Building a Virtual Model of a Baleen Whale: Phase 2

DTIC Science & Technology

2013-09-30

valid by comparing results gleaned from live animals involved in biosonar tasks (Cranford and Krysl, 2013) and have begun the process of...Cranford, T. W., and Amundin, M. E. (2003). " Biosonar pulse production in odontocetes: The state of our knowledge," in Echolocation in bats and...Krysl, P. (2014). "Validation of a vibroacoustic finite element model using bottlenose dolphin simulations: The dolphin biosonar beam is focused in
Psychometric Properties and Validation of the Arabic Social Media Addiction Scale.

PubMed

Al-Menayes, Jamal

2015-01-01

This study investigated the psychometric properties of the Arabic version of the SMAS. SMAS is a variant of IAT customized to measure addiction to social media instead of the Internet as a whole. Using a self-report instrument on a cross-sectional sample of undergraduate students, the results revealed the following. First, the exploratory factor analysis showed that a three-factor model fits the data well. Second, concurrent validity analysis showed the SMAS to be a valid measure of social media addiction. However, further studies and data should verify the hypothesized model. Finally, this study showed that the Arabic version of the SMAS is a valid and reliable instrument for use in measuring social media addiction in the Arab world.
Psychometric Properties and Validation of the Arabic Social Media Addiction Scale

PubMed Central

Al-Menayes, Jamal

2015-01-01

This study investigated the psychometric properties of the Arabic version of the SMAS. SMAS is a variant of IAT customized to measure addiction to social media instead of the Internet as a whole. Using a self-report instrument on a cross-sectional sample of undergraduate students, the results revealed the following. First, the exploratory factor analysis showed that a three-factor model fits the data well. Second, concurrent validity analysis showed the SMAS to be a valid measure of social media addiction. However, further studies and data should verify the hypothesized model. Finally, this study showed that the Arabic version of the SMAS is a valid and reliable instrument for use in measuring social media addiction in the Arab world. PMID:26347848
Assessment of human epidermal model LabCyte EPI-MODEL for in vitro skin irritation testing according to European Centre for the Validation of Alternative Methods (ECVAM)-validated protocol.

PubMed

Katoh, Masakazu; Hamajima, Fumiyasu; Ogasawara, Takahiro; Hata, Ken-Ichiro

2009-06-01

A validation study of an in vitro skin irritation testing method using a reconstructed human skin model has been conducted by the European Centre for the Validation of Alternative Methods (ECVAM), and a protocol using EpiSkin (SkinEthic, France) has been approved. The structural and performance criteria of skin models for testing are defined in the ECVAM Performance Standards announced along with the approval. We have performed several evaluations of the new reconstructed human epidermal model LabCyte EPI-MODEL, and confirmed that it is applicable to skin irritation testing as defined in the ECVAM Performance Standards. We selected 19 materials (nine irritants and ten non-irritants) available in Japan as test chemicals among the 20 reference chemicals described in the ECVAM Performance Standard. A test chemical was applied to the surface of the LabCyte EPI-MODEL for 15 min, after which it was completely removed and the model then post-incubated for 42 hr. Cell v iability was measured by MTT assay and skin irritancy of the test chemical evaluated. In addition, interleukin-1 alpha (IL-1alpha) concentration in the culture supernatant after post-incubation was measured to provide a complementary evaluation of skin irritation. Evaluation of the 19 test chemicals resulted in 79% accuracy, 78% sensitivity and 80% specificity, confirming that the in vitro skin irritancy of the LabCyte EPI-MODEL correlates highly with in vivo skin irritation. These results suggest that LabCyte EPI-MODEL is applicable to the skin irritation testing protocol set out in the ECVAM Performance Standards.
CME Arrival-time Validation of Real-time WSA-ENLIL+Cone Simulations at the CCMC/SWRC

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wold, A. M.; Mays, M. L.; Taktakishvili, A.; Jian, L.; Odstrcil, D.; MacNeice, P. J.

2016-12-01

The Wang-Sheeley-Arge (WSA)-ENLIL+Cone model is used extensively in space weather operations worldwide to model CME propagation, as such it is important to assess its performance. We present validation results of the WSA-ENLIL+Cone model installed at the Community Coordinated Modeling Center (CCMC) and executed in real-time by the CCMC/Space Weather Research Center (SWRC). The SWRC is a CCMC sub-team that provides space weather services to NASA robotic mission operators and science campaigns, and also prototypes new forecasting models and techniques. CCMC/SWRC uses the WSA-ENLIL+Cone model to predict CME arrivals at NASA missions throughout the inner heliosphere. In this work we compare model predicted CME arrival-times to in-situ ICME shock observations near Earth (ACE, Wind), STEREO-A and B for simulations completed between March 2010 - July 2016 (over 1500 runs). We report hit, miss, false alarm, and correct rejection statistics for all three spacecraft. For hits we compute the bias, RMSE, and average absolute CME arrival time error, and the dependence of these errors on CME input parameters. We compare the predicted geomagnetic storm strength (Kp index) to the CME arrival time error for Earth-directed CMEs. The predicted Kp index is computed using the WSA-ENLIL+Cone plasma parameters at Earth with a modified Newell et al. (2007) coupling function. We also explore the impact of the multi-spacecraft observations on the CME parameters used initialize the model by comparing model validation results before and after the STEREO-B communication loss (since September 2014) and STEREO-A side-lobe operations (August 2014-December 2015). This model validation exercise has significance for future space weather mission planning such as L5 missions.
Procedure for the Selection and Validation of a Calibration Model I-Description and Application.

PubMed

Desharnais, Brigitte; Camirand-Lemyre, Félix; Mireault, Pascal; Skinner, Cameron D

2017-05-01

Calibration model selection is required for all quantitative methods in toxicology and more broadly in bioanalysis. This typically involves selecting the equation order (quadratic or linear) and weighting factor correctly modelizing the data. A mis-selection of the calibration model will generate lower quality control (QC) accuracy, with an error up to 154%. Unfortunately, simple tools to perform this selection and tests to validate the resulting model are lacking. We present a stepwise, analyst-independent scheme for selection and validation of calibration models. The success rate of this scheme is on average 40% higher than a traditional "fit and check the QCs accuracy" method of selecting the calibration model. Moreover, the process was completely automated through a script (available in Supplemental Data 3) running in RStudio (free, open-source software). The need for weighting was assessed through an F-test using the variances of the upper limit of quantification and lower limit of quantification replicate measurements. When weighting was required, the choice between 1/x and 1/x2 was determined by calculating which option generated the smallest spread of weighted normalized variances. Finally, model order was selected through a partial F-test. The chosen calibration model was validated through Cramer-von Mises or Kolmogorov-Smirnov normality testing of the standardized residuals. Performance of the different tests was assessed using 50 simulated data sets per possible calibration model (e.g., linear-no weight, quadratic-no weight, linear-1/x, etc.). This first of two papers describes the tests, procedures and outcomes of the developed procedure using real LC-MS-MS results for the quantification of cocaine and naltrexone. © The Author 2017. Published by Oxford University Press. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please email: journals.permissions@oup.com.
Toward accurate and valid estimates of greenhouse gas reductions from bikeway projects.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2016-07-31

We sought to accurately and validly model emissions generating and activities, including changes in traveler behavior and thus GHG : emissions in the wake of bikeway projects. We wanted the results to be applicable to practice and policy in Californi...
Development of a physically-based planar inductors VHDL-AMS model for integrated power converter design

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ammouri, Aymen; Ben Salah, Walid; Khachroumi, Sofiane; Ben Salah, Tarek; Kourda, Ferid; Morel, Hervé

2014-05-01

Design of integrated power converters needs prototype-less approaches. Specific simulations are required for investigation and validation process. Simulation relies on active and passive device models. Models of planar devices, for instance, are still not available in power simulator tools. There is, thus, a specific limitation during the simulation process of integrated power systems. The paper focuses on the development of a physically-based planar inductor model and its validation inside a power converter during transient switching. The planar inductor model remains a complex device to model, particularly when the skin, the proximity and the parasitic capacitances effects are taken into account. Heterogeneous simulation scheme, including circuit and device models, is successfully implemented in VHDL-AMS language and simulated in Simplorer platform. The mixed simulation results has been favorably tested and compared with practical measurements. It is found that the multi-domain simulation results and measurements data are in close agreement.
Parasitic Parameters Extraction for InP DHBT Based on EM Method and Validation up to H-Band

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, Oupeng; Zhang, Yong; Wang, Lei; Xu, Ruimin; Cheng, Wei; Wang, Yuan; Lu, Haiyan

2017-05-01

This paper presents a small-signal model for InGaAs/InP double heterojunction bipolar transistor (DHBT). Parasitic parameters of access via and electrode finger are extracted by 3-D electromagnetic (EM) simulation. By analyzing the equivalent circuit of seven special structures and using the EM simulation results, the parasitic parameters are extracted systematically. Compared with multi-port s-parameter EM model, the equivalent circuit model has clear physical intension and avoids the complex internal ports setting. The model is validated on a 0.5 × 7 μm2 InP DHBT up to 325 GHz. The model provides a good fitting result between measured and simulated multi-bias s-parameters in full band. At last, an H-band amplifier is designed and fabricated for further verification. The measured amplifier performance is highly agreed with the model prediction, which indicates the model has good accuracy in submillimeterwave band.
A kinetic model of municipal sludge degradation during non-catalytic wet oxidation.

PubMed

Prince-Pike, Arrian; Wilson, David I; Baroutian, Saeid; Andrews, John; Gapes, Daniel J

2015-12-15

Wet oxidation is a successful process for the treatment of municipal sludge. In addition, the resulting effluent from wet oxidation is a useful carbon source for subsequent biological nutrient removal processes in wastewater treatment. Owing to limitations with current kinetic models, this study produced a kinetic model which predicts the concentrations of key intermediate components during wet oxidation. The model was regressed from lab-scale experiments and then subsequently validated using data from a wet oxidation pilot plant. The model was shown to be accurate in predicting the concentrations of each component, and produced good results when applied to a plant 500 times larger in size. A statistical study was undertaken to investigate the validity of the regressed model parameters. Finally the usefulness of the model was demonstrated by suggesting optimum operating conditions such that volatile fatty acids were maximised. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
Predicting non-familial major physical violent crime perpetration in the U.S. Army from administrative data

PubMed Central

Rosellini, Anthony J.; Monahan, John; Street, Amy E.; Heeringa, Steven G.; Hill, Eric D.; Petukhova, Maria; Reis, Ben Y.; Sampson, Nancy A.; Bliese, Paul; Schoenbaum, Michael; Stein, Murray B.; Ursano, Robert; Kessler, Ronald C.

2016-01-01

BACKGROUND Although interventions exist to reduce violent crime, optimal implementation requires accurate targeting. We report the results of an attempt to develop an actuarial model using machine learning methods to predict future violent crimes among U.S. Army soldiers. METHODS A consolidated administrative database for all 975,057 soldiers in the U.S. Army in 2004-2009 was created in the Army Study to Assess Risk and Resilience in Servicemembers (Army STARRS). 5,771 of these soldiers committed a first founded major physical violent crime (murder-manslaughter, kidnapping, aggravated arson, aggravated assault, robbery) over that time period. Temporally prior administrative records measuring socio-demographic, Army career, criminal justice, medical/pharmacy, and contextual variables were used to build an actuarial model for these crimes separately among men and women using machine learning methods (cross-validated stepwise regression; random forests; penalized regressions). The model was then validated in an independent 2011-2013 sample. RESULTS Key predictors were indicators of disadvantaged social/socio-economic status, early career stage, prior crime, and mental disorder treatment. Area under the receiver operating characteristic curve was .80-.82 in 2004-2009 and .77 in a 2011-2013 validation sample. 36.2-33.1% (male-female) of all administratively-recorded crimes were committed by the 5% of soldiers having highest predicted risk in 2004-2009 and an even higher proportion (50.5%) in the 2011-2013 validation sample. CONCLUSIONS Although these results suggest that the models could be used to target soldiers at high risk of violent crime perpetration for preventive interventions, final implementation decisions would require further validation and weighing of predicted effectiveness against intervention costs and competing risks. PMID:26436603
The Sensitivity of WRF Daily Summertime Simulations over West Africa to Alternative Parameterizations. Part 1: African Wave Circulation

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Noble, Erik; Druyan, Leonard M.; Fulakeza, Matthew

2014-01-01

The performance of the NCAR Weather Research and Forecasting Model (WRF) as a West African regional-atmospheric model is evaluated. The study tests the sensitivity of WRF-simulated vorticity maxima associated with African easterly waves to 64 combinations of alternative parameterizations in a series of simulations in September. In all, 104 simulations of 12-day duration during 11 consecutive years are examined. The 64 combinations combine WRF parameterizations of cumulus convection, radiation transfer, surface hydrology, and PBL physics. Simulated daily and mean circulation results are validated against NASA's Modern-Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications (MERRA) and NCEP/Department of Energy Global Reanalysis 2. Precipitation is considered in a second part of this two-part paper. A wide range of 700-hPa vorticity validation scores demonstrates the influence of alternative parameterizations. The best WRF performers achieve correlations against reanalysis of 0.40-0.60 and realistic amplitudes of spatiotemporal variability for the 2006 focus year while a parallel-benchmark simulation by the NASA Regional Model-3 (RM3) achieves higher correlations, but less realistic spatiotemporal variability. The largest favorable impact on WRF-vorticity validation is achieved by selecting the Grell-Devenyi cumulus convection scheme, resulting in higher correlations against reanalysis than simulations using the Kain-Fritch convection. Other parameterizations have less-obvious impact, although WRF configurations incorporating one surface model and PBL scheme consistently performed poorly. A comparison of reanalysis circulation against two NASA radiosonde stations confirms that both reanalyses represent observations well enough to validate the WRF results. Validation statistics for optimized WRF configurations simulating the parallel period during 10 additional years are less favorable than for 2006.
Evaluation of the AnnAGNPS Model for Predicting Runoff and Nutrient Export in a Typical Small Watershed in the Hilly Region of Taihu Lake.

PubMed

Luo, Chuan; Li, Zhaofu; Li, Hengpeng; Chen, Xiaomin

2015-09-02

The application of hydrological and water quality models is an efficient approach to better understand the processes of environmental deterioration. This study evaluated the ability of the Annualized Agricultural Non-Point Source (AnnAGNPS) model to predict runoff, total nitrogen (TN) and total phosphorus (TP) loading in a typical small watershed of a hilly region near Taihu Lake, China. Runoff was calibrated and validated at both an annual and monthly scale, and parameter sensitivity analysis was performed for TN and TP before the two water quality components were calibrated. The results showed that the model satisfactorily simulated runoff at annual and monthly scales, both during calibration and validation processes. Additionally, results of parameter sensitivity analysis showed that the parameters Fertilizer rate, Fertilizer organic, Canopy cover and Fertilizer inorganic were more sensitive to TN output. In terms of TP, the parameters Residue mass ratio, Fertilizer rate, Fertilizer inorganic and Canopy cover were the most sensitive. Based on these sensitive parameters, calibration was performed. TN loading produced satisfactory results for both the calibration and validation processes, whereas the performance of TP loading was slightly poor. The simulation results showed that AnnAGNPS has the potential to be used as a valuable tool for the planning and management of watersheds.
Validation of a partial coherence interferometry method for estimating retinal shape

PubMed Central

Verkicharla, Pavan K.; Suheimat, Marwan; Pope, James M.; Sepehrband, Farshid; Mathur, Ankit; Schmid, Katrina L.; Atchison, David A.

2015-01-01

To validate a simple partial coherence interferometry (PCI) based retinal shape method, estimates of retinal shape were determined in 60 young adults using off-axis PCI, with three stages of modeling using variants of the Le Grand model eye, and magnetic resonance imaging (MRI). Stage 1 and 2 involved a basic model eye without and with surface ray deviation, respectively and Stage 3 used model with individual ocular biometry and ray deviation at surfaces. Considering the theoretical uncertainty of MRI (12-14%), the results of the study indicate good agreement between MRI and all three stages of PCI modeling with <4% and <7% differences in retinal shapes along horizontal and vertical meridians, respectively. Stage 2 and Stage 3 gave slightly different retinal co-ordinates than Stage 1 and we recommend the intermediate Stage 2 as providing a simple and valid method of determining retinal shape from PCI data. PMID:26417496
Validation of a partial coherence interferometry method for estimating retinal shape.

PubMed

Verkicharla, Pavan K; Suheimat, Marwan; Pope, James M; Sepehrband, Farshid; Mathur, Ankit; Schmid, Katrina L; Atchison, David A

2015-09-01

To validate a simple partial coherence interferometry (PCI) based retinal shape method, estimates of retinal shape were determined in 60 young adults using off-axis PCI, with three stages of modeling using variants of the Le Grand model eye, and magnetic resonance imaging (MRI). Stage 1 and 2 involved a basic model eye without and with surface ray deviation, respectively and Stage 3 used model with individual ocular biometry and ray deviation at surfaces. Considering the theoretical uncertainty of MRI (12-14%), the results of the study indicate good agreement between MRI and all three stages of PCI modeling with <4% and <7% differences in retinal shapes along horizontal and vertical meridians, respectively. Stage 2 and Stage 3 gave slightly different retinal co-ordinates than Stage 1 and we recommend the intermediate Stage 2 as providing a simple and valid method of determining retinal shape from PCI data.
WEC3: Wave Energy Converter Code Comparison Project: Preprint

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Combourieu, Adrien; Lawson, Michael; Babarit, Aurelien

This paper describes the recently launched Wave Energy Converter Code Comparison (WEC3) project and present preliminary results from this effort. The objectives of WEC3 are to verify and validate numerical modelling tools that have been developed specifically to simulate wave energy conversion devices and to inform the upcoming IEA OES Annex VI Ocean Energy Modelling Verification and Validation project. WEC3 is divided into two phases. Phase 1 consists of a code-to-code verification and Phase II entails code-to-experiment validation. WEC3 focuses on mid-fidelity codes that simulate WECs using time-domain multibody dynamics methods to model device motions and hydrodynamic coefficients to modelmore » hydrodynamic forces. Consequently, high-fidelity numerical modelling tools, such as Navier-Stokes computational fluid dynamics simulation, and simple frequency domain modelling tools were not included in the WEC3 project.« less

Identification of reduced-order thermal therapy models using thermal MR images: theory and validation.

PubMed

Niu, Ran; Skliar, Mikhail

2012-07-01

In this paper, we develop and validate a method to identify computationally efficient site- and patient-specific models of ultrasound thermal therapies from MR thermal images. The models of the specific absorption rate of the transduced energy and the temperature response of the therapy target are identified in the reduced basis of proper orthogonal decomposition of thermal images, acquired in response to a mild thermal test excitation. The method permits dynamic reidentification of the treatment models during the therapy by recursively utilizing newly acquired images. Such adaptation is particularly important during high-temperature therapies, which are known to substantially and rapidly change tissue properties and blood perfusion. The developed theory was validated for the case of focused ultrasound heating of a tissue phantom. The experimental and computational results indicate that the developed approach produces accurate low-dimensional treatment models despite temporal and spatial noises in MR images and slow image acquisition rate.
Model development and validation of geometrically complex eddy current coils using finite element methods

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Brown, Alexander; Eviston, Connor

2017-02-01

Multiple FEM models of complex eddy current coil geometries were created and validated to calculate the change of impedance due to the presence of a notch. Capable realistic simulations of eddy current inspections are required for model assisted probability of detection (MAPOD) studies, inversion algorithms, experimental verification, and tailored probe design for NDE applications. An FEM solver was chosen to model complex real world situations including varying probe dimensions and orientations along with complex probe geometries. This will also enable creation of a probe model library database with variable parameters. Verification and validation was performed using other commercially available eddy current modeling software as well as experimentally collected benchmark data. Data analysis and comparison showed that the created models were able to correctly model the probe and conductor interactions and accurately calculate the change in impedance of several experimental scenarios with acceptable error. The promising results of the models enabled the start of an eddy current probe model library to give experimenters easy access to powerful parameter based eddy current models for alternate project applications.
Object-Oriented Modeling of an Energy Harvesting System Based on Thermoelectric Generators

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nesarajah, Marco; Frey, Georg

This paper deals with the modeling of an energy harvesting system based on thermoelectric generators (TEG), and the validation of the model by means of a test bench. TEGs are capable to improve the overall energy efficiency of energy systems, e.g. combustion engines or heating systems, by using the remaining waste heat to generate electrical power. Previously, a component-oriented model of the TEG itself was developed in Modelica® language. With this model any TEG can be described and simulated given the material properties and the physical dimension. Now, this model was extended by the surrounding components to a complete model of a thermoelectric energy harvesting system. In addition to the TEG, the model contains the cooling system, the heat source, and the power electronics. To validate the simulation model, a test bench was built and installed on an oil-fired household heating system. The paper reports results of the measurements and discusses the validity of the developed simulation models. Furthermore, the efficiency of the proposed energy harvesting system is derived and possible improvements based on design variations tested in the simulation model are proposed.
SU-E-T-50: Automatic Validation of Megavoltage Beams Modeled for Clinical Use in Radiation Therapy

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Melchior, M; Salinas Aranda, F; 21st Century Oncology, Ft. Myers, FL

2014-06-01

Purpose: To automatically validate megavoltage beams modeled in XiO™ 4.50 (Elekta, Stockholm, Sweden) and Varian Eclipse™ Treatment Planning Systems (TPS) (Varian Associates, Palo Alto, CA, USA), reducing validation time before beam-on for clinical use. Methods: A software application that can automatically read and analyze DICOM RT Dose and W2CAD files was developed using MatLab integrated development environment.TPS calculated dose distributions, in DICOM RT Dose format, and dose values measured in different Varian Clinac beams, in W2CAD format, were compared. Experimental beam data used were those acquired for beam commissioning, collected on a water phantom with a 2D automatic beam scanningmore » system.Two methods were chosen to evaluate dose distributions fitting: gamma analysis and point tests described in Appendix E of IAEA TECDOC-1583. Depth dose curves and beam profiles were evaluated for both open and wedged beams. Tolerance parameters chosen for gamma analysis are 3% and 3 mm dose and distance, respectively.Absolute dose was measured independently at points proposed in Appendix E of TECDOC-1583 to validate software results. Results: TPS calculated depth dose distributions agree with measured beam data under fixed precision values at all depths analyzed. Measured beam dose profiles match TPS calculated doses with high accuracy in both open and wedged beams. Depth and profile dose distributions fitting analysis show gamma values < 1. Relative errors at points proposed in Appendix E of TECDOC-1583 meet therein recommended tolerances.Independent absolute dose measurements at points proposed in Appendix E of TECDOC-1583 confirm software results. Conclusion: Automatic validation of megavoltage beams modeled for their use in the clinic was accomplished. The software tool developed proved efficient, giving users a convenient and reliable environment to decide whether to accept or not a beam model for clinical use. Validation time before beam-on for clinical use was reduced to a few hours.« less
Implementing Lumberjacks and Black Swans Into Model-Based Tools to Support Human-Automation Interaction.

PubMed

Sebok, Angelia; Wickens, Christopher D

2017-03-01

The objectives were to (a) implement theoretical perspectives regarding human-automation interaction (HAI) into model-based tools to assist designers in developing systems that support effective performance and (b) conduct validations to assess the ability of the models to predict operator performance. Two key concepts in HAI, the lumberjack analogy and black swan events, have been studied extensively. The lumberjack analogy describes the effects of imperfect automation on operator performance. In routine operations, an increased degree of automation supports performance, but in failure conditions, increased automation results in more significantly impaired performance. Black swans are the rare and unexpected failures of imperfect automation. The lumberjack analogy and black swan concepts have been implemented into three model-based tools that predict operator performance in different systems. These tools include a flight management system, a remotely controlled robotic arm, and an environmental process control system. Each modeling effort included a corresponding validation. In one validation, the software tool was used to compare three flight management system designs, which were ranked in the same order as predicted by subject matter experts. The second validation compared model-predicted operator complacency with empirical performance in the same conditions. The third validation compared model-predicted and empirically determined time to detect and repair faults in four automation conditions. The three model-based tools offer useful ways to predict operator performance in complex systems. The three tools offer ways to predict the effects of different automation designs on operator performance.
Active Aeroelastic Wing Aerodynamic Model Development and Validation for a Modified F/A-18A Airplane

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Cumming, Stephen B.; Diebler, Corey G.

2005-01-01

A new aerodynamic model has been developed and validated for a modified F/A-18A airplane used for the Active Aeroelastic Wing (AAW) research program. The goal of the program was to demonstrate the advantages of using the inherent flexibility of an aircraft to enhance its performance. The research airplane was an F/A-18A with wings modified to reduce stiffness and a new control system to increase control authority. There have been two flight phases. Data gathered from the first flight phase were used to create the new aerodynamic model. A maximum-likelihood output-error parameter estimation technique was used to obtain stability and control derivatives. The derivatives were incorporated into the National Aeronautics and Space Administration F-18 simulation, validated, and used to develop new AAW control laws. The second phase of flights was used to evaluate the handling qualities of the AAW airplane and the control law design process, and to further test the accuracy of the new model. The flight test envelope covered Mach numbers between 0.85 and 1.30 and dynamic pressures from 600 to 1250 pound-force per square foot. The results presented in this report demonstrate that a thorough parameter identification analysis can be used to improve upon models that were developed using other means. This report describes the parameter estimation technique used, details the validation techniques, discusses differences between previously existing F/A-18 models, and presents results from the second phase of research flights.
Testing alternative ground water models using cross-validation and other methods

USGS Publications Warehouse

Foglia, L.; Mehl, S.W.; Hill, M.C.; Perona, P.; Burlando, P.

2007-01-01

Many methods can be used to test alternative ground water models. Of concern in this work are methods able to (1) rank alternative models (also called model discrimination) and (2) identify observations important to parameter estimates and predictions (equivalent to the purpose served by some types of sensitivity analysis). Some of the measures investigated are computationally efficient; others are computationally demanding. The latter are generally needed to account for model nonlinearity. The efficient model discrimination methods investigated include the information criteria: the corrected Akaike information criterion, Bayesian information criterion, and generalized cross-validation. The efficient sensitivity analysis measures used are dimensionless scaled sensitivity (DSS), composite scaled sensitivity, and parameter correlation coefficient (PCC); the other statistics are DFBETAS, Cook's D, and observation-prediction statistic. Acronyms are explained in the introduction. Cross-validation (CV) is a computationally intensive nonlinear method that is used for both model discrimination and sensitivity analysis. The methods are tested using up to five alternative parsimoniously constructed models of the ground water system of the Maggia Valley in southern Switzerland. The alternative models differ in their representation of hydraulic conductivity. A new method for graphically representing CV and sensitivity analysis results for complex models is presented and used to evaluate the utility of the efficient statistics. The results indicate that for model selection, the information criteria produce similar results at much smaller computational cost than CV. For identifying important observations, the only obviously inferior linear measure is DSS; the poor performance was expected because DSS does not include the effects of parameter correlation and PCC reveals large parameter correlations. ?? 2007 National Ground Water Association.
The Construct Validity of Attitudes toward Career Counseling Scale for Korean College Students

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Nam, Suk Kyung; In Park, Hyung

2015-01-01

This study aimed to examine the construct validity of the Attitudes Toward Career Counseling Scale (ATCCS) in Korea. In Study 1, confirmatory factor analysis (CFA) was used for testing the factor structure of the scale. The results supported a two-factor (value and stigma) model, which was theoretically driven from the original study. Results of…
Validating Pseudo-dynamic Source Models against Observed Ground Motion Data at the SCEC Broadband Platform, Ver 16.5

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Song, S. G.

2016-12-01

Simulation-based ground motion prediction approaches have several benefits over empirical ground motion prediction equations (GMPEs). For instance, full 3-component waveforms can be produced and site-specific hazard analysis is also possible. However, it is important to validate them against observed ground motion data to confirm their efficiency and validity before practical uses. There have been community efforts for these purposes, which are supported by the Broadband Platform (BBP) project at the Southern California Earthquake Center (SCEC). In the simulation-based ground motion prediction approaches, it is a critical element to prepare a possible range of scenario rupture models. I developed a pseudo-dynamic source model for Mw 6.5-7.0 by analyzing a number of dynamic rupture models, based on 1-point and 2-point statistics of earthquake source parameters (Song et al. 2014; Song 2016). In this study, the developed pseudo-dynamic source models were tested against observed ground motion data at the SCEC BBP, Ver 16.5. The validation was performed at two stages. At the first stage, simulated ground motions were validated against observed ground motion data for past events such as the 1992 Landers and 1994 Northridge, California, earthquakes. At the second stage, they were validated against the latest version of empirical GMPEs, i.e., NGA-West2. The validation results show that the simulated ground motions produce ground motion intensities compatible with observed ground motion data at both stages. The compatibility of the pseudo-dynamic source models with the omega-square spectral decay and the standard deviation of the simulated ground motion intensities are also discussed in the study
Developing Statistical Physics Course Handout on Distribution Function Materials Based on Science, Technology, Engineering, and Mathematics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Riandry, M. A.; Ismet, I.; Akhsan, H.

2017-09-01

This study aims to produce a valid and practical statistical physics course handout on distribution function materials based on STEM. Rowntree development model is used to produce this handout. The model consists of three stages: planning, development and evaluation stages. In this study, the evaluation stage used Tessmer formative evaluation. It consists of 5 stages: self-evaluation, expert review, one-to-one evaluation, small group evaluation and field test stages. However, the handout is limited to be tested on validity and practicality aspects, so the field test stage is not implemented. The data collection technique used walkthroughs and questionnaires. Subjects of this study are students of 6th and 8th semester of academic year 2016/2017 Physics Education Study Program of Sriwijaya University. The average result of expert review is 87.31% (very valid category). One-to-one evaluation obtained the average result is 89.42%. The result of small group evaluation is 85.92%. From one-to-one and small group evaluation stages, averagestudent response to this handout is 87,67% (very practical category). Based on the results of the study, it can be concluded that the handout is valid and practical.
Patient self-report section of the ASES questionnaire: a Spanish validation study using classical test theory and the Rasch model.

PubMed

Vrotsou, Kalliopi; Cuéllar, Ricardo; Silió, Félix; Rodriguez, Miguel Ángel; Garay, Daniel; Busto, Gorka; Trancho, Ziortza; Escobar, Antonio

2016-10-18

The aim of the current study was to validate the self-report section of the American Shoulder and Elbow Surgeons questionnaire (ASES-p) into Spanish. Shoulder pathology patients were recruited and followed up to 6 months post treatment. The ASES-p, Constant, SF-36 and Barthel scales were filled-in pre and post treatment. Reliability was tested with Cronbach's alpha, convergent validity with Spearman's correlations coefficients. Confirmatory factor analysis (CFA) and the Rasch model were implemented for assessing structural validity and unidimensionality of the scale. Models with and without the pain item were considered. Responsiveness to change was explored via standardised effect sizes. Results were acceptable for both tested models. Cronbach's alpha was 0.91, total scale correlations with Constant and physical SF-36 dimensions were >0.50. Factor loadings for CFA were >0.40. The Rasch model confirmed unidimensionality of the scale, even though item 10 "do usual sport" was suggested as non-informative. Finally, patients with improved post treatment shoulder function and those receiving surgery had higher standardised effect sizes. The adapted Spanish ASES-p version is a valid and reliable tool for shoulder evaluation and its unidimensionality is supported by the data.
Validation of the SURE Program, phase 1

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Dotson, Kelly J.

1987-01-01

Presented are the results of the first phase in the validation of the SURE (Semi-Markov Unreliability Range Evaluator) program. The SURE program gives lower and upper bounds on the death-state probabilities of a semi-Markov model. With these bounds, the reliability of a semi-Markov model of a fault-tolerant computer system can be analyzed. For the first phase in the validation, fifteen semi-Markov models were solved analytically for the exact death-state probabilities and these solutions compared to the corresponding bounds given by SURE. In every case, the SURE bounds covered the exact solution. The bounds, however, had a tendency to separate in cases where the recovery rate was slow or the fault arrival rate was fast.
Experimental Validation of Lightning-Induced Electromagnetic (Indirect) Coupling to Short Monopole Antennas

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Crull, E W; Brown Jr., C G; Perkins, M P

2008-07-30

For short monopoles in this low-power case, it has been shown that a simple circuit model is capable of accurate predictions for the shape and magnitude of the antenna response to lightning-generated electric field coupling effects, provided that the elements of the circuit model have accurate values. Numerical EM simulation can be used to provide more accurate values for the circuit elements than the simple analytical formulas, since the analytical formulas are used outside of their region of validity. However, even with the approximate analytical formulas the simple circuit model produces reasonable results, which would improve if more accurate analyticalmore » models were used. This report discusses the coupling analysis approaches taken to understand the interaction between a time-varying EM field and a short monopole antenna, within the context of lightning safety for nuclear weapons at DOE facilities. It describes the validation of a simple circuit model using laboratory study in order to understand the indirect coupling of energy into a part, and the resulting voltage. Results show that in this low-power case, the circuit model predicts peak voltages within approximately 32% using circuit component values obtained from analytical formulas and about 13% using circuit component values obtained from numerical EM simulation. We note that the analytical formulas are used outside of their region of validity. First, the antenna is insulated and not a bare wire and there are perhaps fringing field effects near the termination of the outer conductor that the formula does not take into account. Also, the effective height formula is for a monopole directly over a ground plane, while in the time-domain measurement setup the monopole is elevated above the ground plane by about 1.5-inch (refer to Figure 5).« less
Measurements using orthodontic analysis software on digital models obtained by 3D scans of plaster casts : Intrarater reliability and validity.

PubMed

Czarnota, Judith; Hey, Jeremias; Fuhrmann, Robert

2016-01-01

The purpose of this work was to determine the reliability and validity of measurements performed on digital models with a desktop scanner and analysis software in comparison with measurements performed manually on conventional plaster casts. A total of 20 pairs of plaster casts reflecting the intraoral conditions of 20 fully dentate individuals were digitized using a three-dimensional scanner (D700; 3Shape). A series of defined parameters were measured both on the resultant digital models with analysis software (Ortho Analyzer; 3Shape) and on the original plaster casts with a digital caliper (Digimatic CD-15DCX; Mitutoyo). Both measurement series were repeated twice and analyzed for intrarater reliability based on intraclass correlation coefficients (ICCs). The results from the digital models were evaluated for their validity against the casts by calculating mean-value differences and associated 95 % limits of agreement (Bland-Altman method). Statistically significant differences were identified via a paired t test. Significant differences were obtained for 16 of 24 tooth-width measurements, for 2 of 5 sites of contact-point displacement in the mandibular anterior segment, for overbite, for maxillary intermolar distance, for Little's irregularity index, and for the summation indices of maxillary and mandibular incisor width. Overall, however, both the mean differences between the results obtained on the digital models versus on the plaster casts and the dispersion ranges associated with these differences suggest that the deviations incurred by the digital measuring technique are not clinically significant. Digital models are adequately reproducible and valid to be employed for routine measurements in orthodontic practice.
Unremarked or Unperformed? Systematic Review on Reporting of Validation Efforts of Health Economic Decision Models in Seasonal Influenza and Early Breast Cancer.

PubMed

de Boer, Pieter T; Frederix, Geert W J; Feenstra, Talitha L; Vemer, Pepijn

2016-09-01

Transparent reporting of validation efforts of health economic models give stakeholders better insight into the credibility of model outcomes. In this study we reviewed recently published studies on seasonal influenza and early breast cancer in order to gain insight into the reporting of model validation efforts in the overall health economic literature. A literature search was performed in Pubmed and Embase to retrieve health economic modelling studies published between 2008 and 2014. Reporting on model validation was evaluated by checking for the word validation, and by using AdViSHE (Assessment of the Validation Status of Health Economic decision models), a tool containing a structured list of relevant items for validation. Additionally, we contacted corresponding authors to ask whether more validation efforts were performed other than those reported in the manuscripts. A total of 53 studies on seasonal influenza and 41 studies on early breast cancer were included in our review. The word validation was used in 16 studies (30 %) on seasonal influenza and 23 studies (56 %) on early breast cancer; however, in a minority of studies, this referred to a model validation technique. Fifty-seven percent of seasonal influenza studies and 71 % of early breast cancer studies reported one or more validation techniques. Cross-validation of study outcomes was found most often. A limited number of studies reported on model validation efforts, although good examples were identified. Author comments indicated that more validation techniques were performed than those reported in the manuscripts. Although validation is deemed important by many researchers, this is not reflected in the reporting habits of health economic modelling studies. Systematic reporting of validation efforts would be desirable to further enhance decision makers' confidence in health economic models and their outcomes.
Using multi-source satellite data for lake level modelling in ungauged basins: A case study for Lake Turkana, East Africa

USGS Publications Warehouse

Velpuri, N.M.; Senay, G.B.; Asante, K.O.

2011-01-01

Managing limited surface water resources is a great challenge in areas where ground-based data are either limited or unavailable. Direct or indirect measurements of surface water resources through remote sensing offer several advantages of monitoring in ungauged basins. A physical based hydrologic technique to monitor lake water levels in ungauged basins using multi-source satellite data such as satellite-based rainfall estimates, modelled runoff, evapotranspiration, a digital elevation model, and other data is presented. This approach is applied to model Lake Turkana water levels from 1998 to 2009. Modelling results showed that the model can reasonably capture all the patterns and seasonal variations of the lake water level fluctuations. A composite lake level product of TOPEX/Poseidon, Jason-1, and ENVISAT satellite altimetry data is used for model calibration (1998-2000) and model validation (2001-2009). Validation results showed that model-based lake levels are in good agreement with observed satellite altimetry data. Compared to satellite altimetry data, the Pearson's correlation coefficient was found to be 0.81 during the validation period. The model efficiency estimated using NSCE is found to be 0.93, 0.55 and 0.66 for calibration, validation and combined periods, respectively. Further, the model-based estimates showed a root mean square error of 0.62 m and mean absolute error of 0.46 m with a positive mean bias error of 0.36 m for the validation period (2001-2009). These error estimates were found to be less than 15 % of the natural variability of the lake, thus giving high confidence on the modelled lake level estimates. The approach presented in this paper can be used to (a) simulate patterns of lake water level variations in data scarce regions, (b) operationally monitor lake water levels in ungauged basins, (c) derive historical lake level information using satellite rainfall and evapotranspiration data, and (d) augment the information provided by the satellite altimetry systems on changes in lake water levels. ?? Author(s) 2011.
Modelling human skull growth: a validated computational model

PubMed Central

Marghoub, Arsalan; Johnson, David; Khonsari, Roman H.; Fagan, Michael J.; Moazen, Mehran

2017-01-01

During the first year of life, the brain grows rapidly and the neurocranium increases to about 65% of its adult size. Our understanding of the relationship between the biomechanical forces, especially from the growing brain, the craniofacial soft tissue structures and the individual bone plates of the skull vault is still limited. This basic knowledge could help in the future planning of craniofacial surgical operations. The aim of this study was to develop a validated computational model of skull growth, based on the finite-element (FE) method, to help understand the biomechanics of skull growth. To do this, a two-step validation study was carried out. First, an in vitro physical three-dimensional printed model and an in silico FE model were created from the same micro-CT scan of an infant skull and loaded with forces from the growing brain from zero to two months of age. The results from the in vitro model validated the FE model before it was further developed to expand from 0 to 12 months of age. This second FE model was compared directly with in vivo clinical CT scans of infants without craniofacial conditions (n = 56). The various models were compared in terms of predicted skull width, length and circumference, while the overall shape was quantified using three-dimensional distance plots. Statistical analysis yielded no significant differences between the male skull models. All size measurements from the FE model versus the in vitro physical model were within 5%, with one exception showing a 7.6% difference. The FE model and in vivo data also correlated well, with the largest percentage difference in size being 8.3%. Overall, the FE model results matched well with both the in vitro and in vivo data. With further development and model refinement, this modelling method could be used to assist in preoperative planning of craniofacial surgery procedures and could help to reduce reoperation rates. PMID:28566514
Modelling human skull growth: a validated computational model.

PubMed

Libby, Joseph; Marghoub, Arsalan; Johnson, David; Khonsari, Roman H; Fagan, Michael J; Moazen, Mehran

2017-05-01

During the first year of life, the brain grows rapidly and the neurocranium increases to about 65% of its adult size. Our understanding of the relationship between the biomechanical forces, especially from the growing brain, the craniofacial soft tissue structures and the individual bone plates of the skull vault is still limited. This basic knowledge could help in the future planning of craniofacial surgical operations. The aim of this study was to develop a validated computational model of skull growth, based on the finite-element (FE) method, to help understand the biomechanics of skull growth. To do this, a two-step validation study was carried out. First, an in vitro physical three-dimensional printed model and an in silico FE model were created from the same micro-CT scan of an infant skull and loaded with forces from the growing brain from zero to two months of age. The results from the in vitro model validated the FE model before it was further developed to expand from 0 to 12 months of age. This second FE model was compared directly with in vivo clinical CT scans of infants without craniofacial conditions ( n = 56). The various models were compared in terms of predicted skull width, length and circumference, while the overall shape was quantified using three-dimensional distance plots. Statistical analysis yielded no significant differences between the male skull models. All size measurements from the FE model versus the in vitro physical model were within 5%, with one exception showing a 7.6% difference. The FE model and in vivo data also correlated well, with the largest percentage difference in size being 8.3%. Overall, the FE model results matched well with both the in vitro and in vivo data. With further development and model refinement, this modelling method could be used to assist in preoperative planning of craniofacial surgery procedures and could help to reduce reoperation rates. © 2017 The Author(s).
A risk-model for hospital mortality among patients with severe sepsis or septic shock based on German national administrative claims data

PubMed Central

Fleischmann-Struzek, Carolin; Rüddel, Hendrik; Reinhart, Konrad; Thomas-Rüddel, Daniel O.

2018-01-01

Background Sepsis is a major cause of preventable deaths in hospitals. Feasible and valid methods for comparing quality of sepsis care between hospitals are needed. The aim of this study was to develop a risk-adjustment model suitable for comparing sepsis-related mortality between German hospitals. Methods We developed a risk-model using national German claims data. Since these data are available with a time-lag of 1.5 years only, the stability of the model across time was investigated. The model was derived from inpatient cases with severe sepsis or septic shock treated in 2013 using logistic regression with backward selection and generalized estimating equations to correct for clustering. It was validated among cases treated in 2015. Finally, the model development was repeated in 2015. To investigate secular changes, the risk-adjusted trajectory of mortality across the years 2010–2015 was analyzed. Results The 2013 deviation sample consisted of 113,750 cases; the 2015 validation sample consisted of 134,851 cases. The model developed in 2013 showed good validity regarding discrimination (AUC = 0.74), calibration (observed mortality in 1st and 10th risk-decile: 11%-78%), and fit (R2 = 0.16). Validity remained stable when the model was applied to 2015 (AUC = 0.74, 1st and 10th risk-decile: 10%-77%, R2 = 0.17). There was no indication of overfitting of the model. The final model developed in year 2015 contained 40 risk-factors. Between 2010 and 2015 hospital mortality in sepsis decreased from 48% to 42%. Adjusted for risk-factors the trajectory of decrease was still significant. Conclusions The risk-model shows good predictive validity and stability across time. The model is suitable to be used as an external algorithm for comparing risk-adjusted sepsis mortality among German hospitals or regions based on administrative claims data, but secular changes need to be taken into account when interpreting risk-adjusted mortality. PMID:29558486
Validation of the Inverted Pendulum Model in standing for transtibial prosthesis users.

PubMed

Rusaw, David F; Ramstrand, Simon

2016-01-01

Often in balance assessment variables associated with the center of pressure are used to draw conclusions about an individual's balance. Validity of these conclusions rests upon assumptions that movement of the center of pressure is inter-dependent on movement of the center of mass. This dependency is mechanical and is referred to as the Inverted Pendulum Model. The following study aimed to validate this model both kinematically and kinetically, in transtibial prosthesis users and a control group. Prosthesis users (n=6) and matched control participants (n=6) stood quietly while force and motion data were collected under three conditions (eyes-open, eyes-closed, and weight-bearing feedback). Correlation coefficients were used to investigate the relationships between height and excursion of markers and center of masses in mediolateral/anteroposterior-directions, difference between center of pressure and center of mass and the center of mass acceleration in mediolateral/anteroposterior directions, magnitude of mediolateral/anteroposterior-component forces and center of mass acceleration, angular position of ankle and excursion in mediolateral/anteroposterior-directions, and integrated force signals. Results indicate kinematic validity of similar magnitudes (mean (SD) marker-displacement) between prosthesis users and control group for mediolateral- (r=0.77 (0.17); 0.74 (0.19)) and anteroposterior-directions (r=0.88 (0.18); 0.88 (0.19)). Correlation between difference of center of pressure and center of mass and the center of mass acceleration was negligible on the prosthetic side (r = 0.08 (0.06)) vs. control group (r=-0.51(0.13)). Results indicate kinematic validity of the Inverted Pendulum Model in transtibial prosthesis users but kinetic validity is questionable, particularly on the side with a prosthesis. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

The bottom-up approach to integrative validity: a new perspective for program evaluation.

PubMed

Chen, Huey T

2010-08-01

The Campbellian validity model and the traditional top-down approach to validity have had a profound influence on research and evaluation. That model includes the concepts of internal and external validity and within that model, the preeminence of internal validity as demonstrated in the top-down approach. Evaluators and researchers have, however, increasingly recognized that in an evaluation, the over-emphasis on internal validity reduces that evaluation's usefulness and contributes to the gulf between academic and practical communities regarding interventions. This article examines the limitations of the Campbellian validity model and the top-down approach and provides a comprehensive, alternative model, known as the integrative validity model for program evaluation. The integrative validity model includes the concept of viable validity, which is predicated on a bottom-up approach to validity. This approach better reflects stakeholders' evaluation views and concerns, makes external validity workable, and becomes therefore a preferable alternative for evaluation of health promotion/social betterment programs. The integrative validity model and the bottom-up approach enable evaluators to meet scientific and practical requirements, facilitate in advancing external validity, and gain a new perspective on methods. The new perspective also furnishes a balanced view of credible evidence, and offers an alternative perspective for funding. Copyright (c) 2009 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
The model SIRANE for atmospheric urban pollutant dispersion. PART III: Validation against NO2 yearly concentration measurements in a large urban agglomeration

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Soulhac, L.; Nguyen, C. V.; Volta, P.; Salizzoni, P.

2017-10-01

We present a validation study of an updated version of the SIRANE model, whose results have been systematically compared to concentrations of nitrogen dioxide collected over the whole urban agglomeration of Lyon. We model atmospheric dispersion of nitrogen oxides emitted by road traffic, industries and domestic heating. The meteorological wind field is computed by a pre-processor using data collected at a ground level monitoring station. Model results are compared with hourly concentrations measured at 15 monitoring stations over the whole year (2008). Further 75 passive diffusion samplers were used during 3 periods of 2 weeks to get a detailed spatial distribution over the west part of the city. An analysis of the model results depending on the variability of the meteorological input allows us to identify the causes for peculiar bad performances of the model and to identify possible improvements of the parameterisations implemented in it.
Consequences of land-cover misclassification in models of impervious surface

USGS Publications Warehouse

McMahon, G.

2007-01-01

Model estimates of impervious area as a function of landcover area may be biased and imprecise because of errors in the land-cover classification. This investigation of the effects of land-cover misclassification on impervious surface models that use National Land Cover Data (NLCD) evaluates the consequences of adjusting land-cover within a watershed to reflect uncertainty assessment information. Model validation results indicate that using error-matrix information to adjust land-cover values used in impervious surface models does not substantially improve impervious surface predictions. Validation results indicate that the resolution of the landcover data (Level I and Level II) is more important in predicting impervious surface accurately than whether the land-cover data have been adjusted using information in the error matrix. Level I NLCD, adjusted for land-cover misclassification, is preferable to the other land-cover options for use in models of impervious surface. This result is tied to the lower classification error rates for the Level I NLCD. ?? 2007 American Society for Photogrammetry and Remote Sensing.
Fixed gain and adaptive techniques for rotorcraft vibration control

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Roy, R. H.; Saberi, H. A.; Walker, R. A.

1985-01-01

The results of an analysis effort performed to demonstrate the feasibility of employing approximate dynamical models and frequency shaped cost functional control law desgin techniques for helicopter vibration suppression are presented. Both fixed gain and adaptive control designs based on linear second order dynamical models were implemented in a detailed Rotor Systems Research Aircraft (RSRA) simulation to validate these active vibration suppression control laws. Approximate models of fuselage flexibility were included in the RSRA simulation in order to more accurately characterize the structural dynamics. The results for both the fixed gain and adaptive approaches are promising and provide a foundation for pursuing further validation in more extensive simulation studies and in wind tunnel and/or flight tests.
Normal tissue complication probability (NTCP) modelling using spatial dose metrics and machine learning methods for severe acute oral mucositis resulting from head and neck radiotherapy.

PubMed

Dean, Jamie A; Wong, Kee H; Welsh, Liam C; Jones, Ann-Britt; Schick, Ulrike; Newbold, Kate L; Bhide, Shreerang A; Harrington, Kevin J; Nutting, Christopher M; Gulliford, Sarah L

2016-07-01

Severe acute mucositis commonly results from head and neck (chemo)radiotherapy. A predictive model of mucositis could guide clinical decision-making and inform treatment planning. We aimed to generate such a model using spatial dose metrics and machine learning. Predictive models of severe acute mucositis were generated using radiotherapy dose (dose-volume and spatial dose metrics) and clinical data. Penalised logistic regression, support vector classification and random forest classification (RFC) models were generated and compared. Internal validation was performed (with 100-iteration cross-validation), using multiple metrics, including area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) and calibration slope, to assess performance. Associations between covariates and severe mucositis were explored using the models. The dose-volume-based models (standard) performed equally to those incorporating spatial information. Discrimination was similar between models, but the RFCstandard had the best calibration. The mean AUC and calibration slope for this model were 0.71 (s.d.=0.09) and 3.9 (s.d.=2.2), respectively. The volumes of oral cavity receiving intermediate and high doses were associated with severe mucositis. The RFCstandard model performance is modest-to-good, but should be improved, and requires external validation. Reducing the volumes of oral cavity receiving intermediate and high doses may reduce mucositis incidence. Copyright © 2016 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ireland Ltd.. All rights reserved.
A Quantitative Structure Activity Relationship for acute oral toxicity of pesticides on rats: Validation, domain of application and prediction.

PubMed

Hamadache, Mabrouk; Benkortbi, Othmane; Hanini, Salah; Amrane, Abdeltif; Khaouane, Latifa; Si Moussa, Cherif

2016-02-13

Quantitative Structure Activity Relationship (QSAR) models are expected to play an important role in the risk assessment of chemicals on humans and the environment. In this study, we developed a validated QSAR model to predict acute oral toxicity of 329 pesticides to rats because a few QSAR models have been devoted to predict the Lethal Dose 50 (LD50) of pesticides on rats. This QSAR model is based on 17 molecular descriptors, and is robust, externally predictive and characterized by a good applicability domain. The best results were obtained with a 17/9/1 Artificial Neural Network model trained with the Quasi Newton back propagation (BFGS) algorithm. The prediction accuracy for the external validation set was estimated by the Q(2)ext and the root mean square error (RMS) which are equal to 0.948 and 0.201, respectively. 98.6% of external validation set is correctly predicted and the present model proved to be superior to models previously published. Accordingly, the model developed in this study provides excellent predictions and can be used to predict the acute oral toxicity of pesticides, particularly for those that have not been tested as well as new pesticides. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
Validity of VO(2 max) in predicting blood volume: implications for the effect of fitness on aging

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Convertino, V. A.; Ludwig, D. A.

2000-01-01

A multiple regression model was constructed to investigate the premise that blood volume (BV) could be predicted using several anthropometric variables, age, and maximal oxygen uptake (VO(2 max)). To test this hypothesis, age, calculated body surface area (height/weight composite), percent body fat (hydrostatic weight), and VO(2 max) were regressed on to BV using data obtained from 66 normal healthy men. Results from the evaluation of the full model indicated that the most parsimonious result was obtained when age and VO(2 max) were regressed on BV expressed per kilogram body weight. The full model accounted for 52% of the total variance in BV per kilogram body weight. Both age and VO(2 max) were related to BV in the positive direction. Percent body fat contributed <1% to the explained variance in BV when expressed in absolute BV (ml) or as BV per kilogram body weight. When the model was cross validated on 41 new subjects and BV per kilogram body weight was reexpressed as raw BV, the results indicated that the statistical model would be stable under cross validation (e.g., predictive applications) with an accuracy of +/- 1,200 ml at 95% confidence. Our results support the hypothesis that BV is an increasing function of aerobic fitness and to a lesser extent the age of the subject. The results may have implication as to a mechanism by which aerobic fitness and activity may be protective against reduced BV associated with aging.
Comparing personality disorder models: cross-method assessment of the FFM and DSM-IV-TR.

PubMed

Samuel, Douglas B; Widiger, Thomas W

2010-12-01

The current edition of the Diagnostic and Statistical Manual of Mental Disorders (DSM-IV-TR; American Psychiatric Association, 2000) defines personality disorders as categorical entities that are distinct from each other and from normal personality traits. However, many scientists now believe that personality disorders are best conceptualized using a dimensional model of traits that span normal and abnormal personality, such as the Five-Factor Model (FFM). However, if the FFM or any dimensional model is to be considered as a credible alternative to the current model, it must first demonstrate an increment in the validity of the assessment offered within a clinical setting. Thus, the current study extended previous research by comparing the convergent and discriminant validity of the current DSM-IV-TR model to the FFM across four assessment methodologies. Eighty-eight individuals receiving ongoing psychotherapy were assessed for the FFM and the DSM-IV-TR personality disorders using self-report, informant report, structured interview, and therapist ratings. The results indicated that the FFM had an appreciable advantage over the DSM-IV-TR in terms of discriminant validity and, at the domain level, convergent validity. Implications of the findings and directions for future research are discussed.
Comparing Personality Disorder Models: Cross-Method Assessment of the FFM and DSM-IV-TR

PubMed Central

Samuel, Douglas B.; Widiger, Thomas A.

2010-01-01

The current edition of the Diagnostic and Statistical Manual of Mental Disorders (DSM-IV-TR; American Psychiatric Association, 2000) defines personality disorders as categorical entities that are distinct from each other and from normal personality traits. However, many scientists now believe that personality disorders are best conceptualized using a dimensional model of traits that span normal and abnormal personality, such as the Five-Factor Model (FFM). However, if the FFM or any dimensional model is to be considered as a credible alternative to the current model, it must first demonstrate an increment in the validity of the assessment offered within a clinical setting. Thus, the current study extended previous research by comparing the convergent and discriminant validity of the current DSM-IV-TR model to the FFM across four assessment methodologies. Eighty-eight individuals receiving ongoing psychotherapy were assessed for the FFM and the DSM-IV-TR personality disorders using self-report, informant report, structured interview, and therapist ratings. The results indicated that the FFM had an appreciable advantage over the DSM-IV-TR in terms of discriminant validity and, at the domain level, convergent validity. Implications of the findings and directions for future research are discussed. PMID:21158596
NDARC - NASA Design and Analysis of Rotorcraft Validation and Demonstration

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Johnson, Wayne

2010-01-01

Validation and demonstration results from the development of the conceptual design tool NDARC (NASA Design and Analysis of Rotorcraft) are presented. The principal tasks of NDARC are to design a rotorcraft to satisfy specified design conditions and missions, and then analyze the performance of the aircraft for a set of off-design missions and point operating conditions. The aircraft chosen as NDARC development test cases are the UH-60A single main-rotor and tail-rotor helicopter, the CH-47D tandem helicopter, the XH-59A coaxial lift-offset helicopter, and the XV-15 tiltrotor. These aircraft were selected because flight performance data, a weight statement, detailed geometry information, and a correlated comprehensive analysis model are available for each. Validation consists of developing the NDARC models for these aircraft by using geometry and weight information, airframe wind tunnel test data, engine decks, rotor performance tests, and comprehensive analysis results; and then comparing the NDARC results for aircraft and component performance with flight test data. Based on the calibrated models, the capability of the code to size rotorcraft is explored.
High Energy Laser Propagation in Various Atmospheric Conditions Utilizing a New Accelerated Scaling Code

DTIC Science & Technology

2014-06-01

C. MODTRAN ....................................................................................................34 1. Preset Atmospheric Models ...37 3. Aerosol Models ...................................................................................38 4. Cloud and Rain Models ...52 E. MODEL VALIDATION ...............................................................................53 VI. RESULTS
An Innovative Software Tool Suite for Power Plant Model Validation and Parameter Calibration using PMU Measurements

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Li, Yuanyuan; Diao, Ruisheng; Huang, Renke

Maintaining good quality of power plant stability models is of critical importance to ensure the secure and economic operation and planning of today’s power grid with its increasing stochastic and dynamic behavior. According to North American Electric Reliability (NERC) standards, all generators in North America with capacities larger than 10 MVA are required to validate their models every five years. Validation is quite costly and can significantly affect the revenue of generator owners, because the traditional staged testing requires generators to be taken offline. Over the past few years, validating and calibrating parameters using online measurements including phasor measurement unitsmore » (PMUs) and digital fault recorders (DFRs) has been proven to be a cost-effective approach. In this paper, an innovative open-source tool suite is presented for validating power plant models using PPMV tool, identifying bad parameters with trajectory sensitivity analysis, and finally calibrating parameters using an ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF) based algorithm. The architectural design and the detailed procedures to run the tool suite are presented, with results of test on a realistic hydro power plant using PMU measurements for 12 different events. The calibrated parameters of machine, exciter, governor and PSS models demonstrate much better performance than the original models for all the events and show the robustness of the proposed calibration algorithm.« less
Fogwater deposition modeling for terrestrial ecosystems: A review of developments and measurements

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Katata, Genki

2014-07-01

Recent progress in modeling fogwater (and low cloud water) deposition over terrestrial ecosystems during fogwater droplet interception by vegetative surfaces is reviewed. Several types of models and parameterizations for fogwater deposition are discussed with comparing assumptions, input parameter requirements, and modeled processes. The relationships among deposition velocity of fogwater (Vd) in model results, wind speed, and plant species structures associated with literature values are gathered for model validation. Quantitative comparisons between model results and observations in forest environments revealed differences as large as 2 orders of magnitude, which are likely caused by uncertainties in measurement techniques over heterogeneous landscapes. Results from the literature review show that Vd values ranged from 2.1 to 8.0 cm s-1 for short vegetation, whereas Vd = 7.7-92 cm s-1 and 0-20 cm s-1 for forests measured by throughfall-based methods and the eddy covariance method, respectively. This review also discusses the current understanding of the impacts of fogwater deposition on atmosphere-land interactions and over complex terrain based on results from numerical studies. Lastly, future research priorities in innovative modeling and observational approaches for model validation are outlined.
Development and Validation of Accident Models for FeCrAl Cladding

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Gamble, Kyle Allan Lawrence; Hales, Jason Dean

2016-08-01

The purpose of this milestone report is to present the work completed in regards to material model development for FeCrAl cladding and highlight the results of applying these models to Loss of Coolant Accidents (LOCA) and Station Blackouts (SBO). With the limited experimental data available (essentially only the data used to create the models) true validation is not possible. In the absence of another alternative, qualitative comparisons during postulated accident scenarios between FeCrAl and Zircaloy-4 cladded rods have been completed demonstrating the superior performance of FeCrAl.
Numerical Validation of Chemical Compositional Model for Wettability Alteration Processes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bekbauov, Bakhbergen; Berdyshev, Abdumauvlen; Baishemirov, Zharasbek; Bau, Domenico

2017-12-01

Chemical compositional simulation of enhanced oil recovery and surfactant enhanced aquifer remediation processes is a complex task that involves solving dozens of equations for all grid blocks representing a reservoir. In the present work, we perform a numerical validation of the newly developed mathematical formulation which satisfies the conservation laws of mass and energy and allows applying a sequential solution approach to solve the governing equations separately and implicitly. Through its application to the numerical experiment using a wettability alteration model and comparisons with existing chemical compositional model's numerical results, the new model has proven to be practical, reliable and stable.
The Role of Integrated Modeling in the Design and Verification of the James Webb Space Telescope

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Mosier, Gary E.; Howard, Joseph M.; Johnston, John D.; Parrish, Keith A.; Hyde, T. Tupper; McGinnis, Mark A.; Bluth, Marcel; Kim, Kevin; Ha, Kong Q.

2004-01-01

The James Web Space Telescope (JWST) is a large, infrared-optimized space telescope scheduled for launch in 2011. System-level verification of critical optical performance requirements will rely on integrated modeling to a considerable degree. In turn, requirements for accuracy of the models are significant. The size of the lightweight observatory structure, coupled with the need to test at cryogenic temperatures, effectively precludes validation of the models and verification of optical performance with a single test in 1-g. Rather, a complex series of steps are planned by which the components of the end-to-end models are validated at various levels of subassembly, and the ultimate verification of optical performance is by analysis using the assembled models. This paper describes the critical optical performance requirements driving the integrated modeling activity, shows how the error budget is used to allocate and track contributions to total performance, and presents examples of integrated modeling methods and results that support the preliminary observatory design. Finally, the concepts for model validation and the role of integrated modeling in the ultimate verification of observatory are described.
Using Modeling and Simulation to Predict Operator Performance and Automation-Induced Complacency With Robotic Automation: A Case Study and Empirical Validation.

PubMed

Wickens, Christopher D; Sebok, Angelia; Li, Huiyang; Sarter, Nadine; Gacy, Andrew M

2015-09-01

The aim of this study was to develop and validate a computational model of the automation complacency effect, as operators work on a robotic arm task, supported by three different degrees of automation. Some computational models of complacency in human-automation interaction exist, but those are formed and validated within the context of fairly simplified monitoring failures. This research extends model validation to a much more complex task, so that system designers can establish, without need for human-in-the-loop (HITL) experimentation, merits and shortcomings of different automation degrees. We developed a realistic simulation of a space-based robotic arm task that could be carried out with three different levels of trajectory visualization and execution automation support. Using this simulation, we performed HITL testing. Complacency was induced via several trials of correctly performing automation and then was assessed on trials when automation failed. Following a cognitive task analysis of the robotic arm operation, we developed a multicomponent model of the robotic operator and his or her reliance on automation, based in part on visual scanning. The comparison of model predictions with empirical results revealed that the model accurately predicted routine performance and predicted the responses to these failures after complacency developed. However, the scanning models do not account for the entire attention allocation effects of complacency. Complacency modeling can provide a useful tool for predicting the effects of different types of imperfect automation. The results from this research suggest that focus should be given to supporting situation awareness in automation development. © 2015, Human Factors and Ergonomics Society.
PACIC Instrument: disentangling dimensions using published validation models.

PubMed

Iglesias, K; Burnand, B; Peytremann-Bridevaux, I

2014-06-01

To better understand the structure of the Patient Assessment of Chronic Illness Care (PACIC) instrument. More specifically to test all published validation models, using one single data set and appropriate statistical tools. Validation study using data from cross-sectional survey. A population-based sample of non-institutionalized adults with diabetes residing in Switzerland (canton of Vaud). French version of the 20-items PACIC instrument (5-point response scale). We conducted validation analyses using confirmatory factor analysis (CFA). The original five-dimension model and other published models were tested with three types of CFA: based on (i) a Pearson estimator of variance-covariance matrix, (ii) a polychoric correlation matrix and (iii) a likelihood estimation with a multinomial distribution for the manifest variables. All models were assessed using loadings and goodness-of-fit measures. The analytical sample included 406 patients. Mean age was 64.4 years and 59% were men. Median of item responses varied between 1 and 4 (range 1-5), and range of missing values was between 5.7 and 12.3%. Strong floor and ceiling effects were present. Even though loadings of the tested models were relatively high, the only model showing acceptable fit was the 11-item single-dimension model. PACIC was associated with the expected variables of the field. Our results showed that the model considering 11 items in a single dimension exhibited the best fit for our data. A single score, in complement to the consideration of single-item results, might be used instead of the five dimensions usually described. © The Author 2014. Published by Oxford University Press in association with the International Society for Quality in Health Care; all rights reserved.
Development and validation of a numerical model of the swine head subjected to open-field blasts

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kalra, A.; Zhu, F.; Feng, K.; Saif, T.; Kallakuri, S.; Jin, X.; Yang, K.; King, A.

2017-11-01

A finite element model of the head of a 55-kg Yucatan pig was developed to calculate the incident pressure and corresponding intracranial pressure due to the explosion of 8 lb (3.63 kg) of C4 at three different distances. The results from the model were validated by comparing findings with experimentally obtained data from five pigs at three different blast overpressure levels: low (150 kPa), medium (275 kPa), and high (400 kPa). The peak values of intracranial pressures from numerical model at different locations of the brain such as the frontal, central, left temporal, right temporal, parietal, and occipital regions were compared with experimental values. The model was able to predict the peak pressure with reasonable percentage differences. The differences for peak incident and intracranial pressure values between the simulation results and the experimental values were found to be less than 2.2 and 29.3%, respectively, at all locations other than the frontal region. Additionally, a series of parametric studies shows that the intracranial pressure was very sensitive to sensor locations, the presence of air bubbles, and reflections experienced during the experiments. Further efforts will be undertaken to correlate the different biomechanical response parameters, such as the intracranial pressure gradient, stress, and strain results obtained from the validated model with injured brain locations once the histology data become available.
Using Experiential Methods To Teach about Measurement Validity.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Alderfer, Clayton P.

2003-01-01

Indirectly, instructor behavior provided two models for using a multitrait-multimethod matrix. Students who formulated their own concept, created empirical indicators, and assessed convergent and discriminant validity had better results than those who, influenced by classroom authority dynamics, followed a poorly formulated concept with a…

Validation of FAST Model Sleep Estimates with Actigraph Measured Sleep in Locomotive Engineers

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2012-04-01

This report presents the results of a study to validate the AutoSleep sleep prediction algorithm, which is a component of the Fatigue Avoidance Scheduling Tool (FAST). Researchers collected work and sleep data from 41 locomotive engineers by using ac...
The DSM-5 Trait Measure in a Psychiatric Sample of Late Adolescents and Emerging Adults: Structure, Reliability, and Validity.

PubMed

De Caluwé, Elien; Verbeke, Lize; van Aken, Marcel; van der Heijden, Paul T; De Clercq, Barbara

2018-02-22

The inclusion of a dimensional trait model of personality pathology in DSM-5 creates new opportunities for research on developmental antecedents of personality pathology. The traits of this model can be measured with the Personality Inventory for DSM-5 (PID-5), initially developed for adults, but also demonstrating validity in adolescents. The present study adds to the growing body of literature on the psychometrics of the PID-5, by examining its structure, validity, and reliability in 187 psychiatric-referred late adolescents and emerging adults. PID-5, Big Five Inventory, and Kidscreen self-reports were provided, and 88 non-clinical matched controls completed the PID-5. Results confirm the PID-5's five-factor structure, indicate adequate psychometric properties, and underscore the construct and criterion validity, showing meaningful associations with adaptive traits and quality of life. Results are discussed in terms of the PID-5's applicability in vulnerable populations who are going through important developmental transition phases, such as the step towards early adulthood.
Initial Development and Validation of the BullyHARM: The Bullying, Harassment, and Aggression Receipt Measure.

PubMed

Hall, William J

2016-11-01

This article describes the development and preliminary validation of the Bullying, Harassment, and Aggression Receipt Measure (BullyHARM). The development of the BullyHARM involved a number of steps and methods, including a literature review, expert review, cognitive testing, readability testing, data collection from a large sample, reliability testing, and confirmatory factor analysis. A sample of 275 middle school students was used to examine the psychometric properties and factor structure of the BullyHARM, which consists of 22 items and 6 subscales: physical bullying, verbal bullying, social/relational bullying, cyber-bullying, property bullying, and sexual bullying. First-order and second-order factor models were evaluated. Results demonstrate that the first-order factor model had superior fit. Results of reliability testing indicate that the BullyHARM scale and subscales have very good internal consistency reliability. Findings indicate that the BullyHARM has good properties regarding content validation and respondent-related validation and is a promising instrument for measuring bullying victimization in school.
Initial Development and Validation of the BullyHARM: The Bullying, Harassment, and Aggression Receipt Measure

PubMed Central

Hall, William J.

2017-01-01

This article describes the development and preliminary validation of the Bullying, Harassment, and Aggression Receipt Measure (BullyHARM). The development of the BullyHARM involved a number of steps and methods, including a literature review, expert review, cognitive testing, readability testing, data collection from a large sample, reliability testing, and confirmatory factor analysis. A sample of 275 middle school students was used to examine the psychometric properties and factor structure of the BullyHARM, which consists of 22 items and 6 subscales: physical bullying, verbal bullying, social/relational bullying, cyber-bullying, property bullying, and sexual bullying. First-order and second-order factor models were evaluated. Results demonstrate that the first-order factor model had superior fit. Results of reliability testing indicate that the BullyHARM scale and subscales have very good internal consistency reliability. Findings indicate that the BullyHARM has good properties regarding content validation and respondent-related validation and is a promising instrument for measuring bullying victimization in school. PMID:28194041
Evaluating the dynamic response of in-flight thrust calculation techniques during throttle transients

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Ray, Ronald J.

1994-01-01

New flight test maneuvers and analysis techniques for evaluating the dynamic response of in-flight thrust models during throttle transients have been developed and validated. The approach is based on the aircraft and engine performance relationship between thrust and drag. Two flight test maneuvers, a throttle step and a throttle frequency sweep, were developed and used in the study. Graphical analysis techniques, including a frequency domain analysis method, were also developed and evaluated. They provide quantitative and qualitative results. Four thrust calculation methods were used to demonstrate and validate the test technique. Flight test applications on two high-performance aircraft confirmed the test methods as valid and accurate. These maneuvers and analysis techniques were easy to implement and use. Flight test results indicate the analysis techniques can identify the combined effects of model error and instrumentation response limitations on the calculated thrust value. The methods developed in this report provide an accurate approach for evaluating, validating, or comparing thrust calculation methods for dynamic flight applications.
Numerical modeling of local scour around hydraulic structure in sandy beds by dynamic mesh method

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fan, Fei; Liang, Bingchen; Bai, Yuchuan; Zhu, Zhixia; Zhu, Yanjun

2017-10-01

Local scour, a non-negligible factor in hydraulic engineering, endangers the safety of hydraulic structures. In this work, a numerical model for simulating local scour was constructed, based on the open source code computational fluid dynamics model OpenFOAM. We consider both the bedload and suspended load sediment transport in the scour model and adopt the dynamic mesh method to simulate the evolution of the bed elevation. We use the finite area method to project data between the three-dimensional flow model and the two-dimensional (2D) scour model. We also improved the 2D sand slide method and added it to the scour model to correct the bed bathymetry when the bed slope angle exceeds the angle of repose. Moreover, to validate our scour model, we conducted and compared the results of three experiments with those of the developed model. The validation results show that our developed model can reliably simulate local scour.
Validation of Fatigue Modeling Predictions in Aviation Operations

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Gregory, Kevin; Martinez, Siera; Flynn-Evans, Erin

2017-01-01

Bio-mathematical fatigue models that predict levels of alertness and performance are one potential tool for use within integrated fatigue risk management approaches. A number of models have been developed that provide predictions based on acute and chronic sleep loss, circadian desynchronization, and sleep inertia. Some are publicly available and gaining traction in settings such as commercial aviation as a means of evaluating flight crew schedules for potential fatigue-related risks. Yet, most models have not been rigorously evaluated and independently validated for the operations to which they are being applied and many users are not fully aware of the limitations in which model results should be interpreted and applied.
Validation of the Asthma Illness Representation Scale-Spanish (AIRS-S).

PubMed

Sidora-Arcoleo, Kimberly Joan; Feldman, Jonathan; Serebrisky, Denise; Spray, Amanda

2010-05-01

To expand knowledge surrounding parental illness representations (IRs) of their children's asthma, it is imperative that culturally appropriate survey instruments are developed and validated for use in clinical and research settings. The Asthma Illness Representation Scale (AIRS) provides a structured assessment of the key components of asthma IRs, allowing the health care provider (HCP) to quickly identify areas of discordance with the professional model of asthma management. The English AIRS was developed and validated among a geographically and ethnically diverse sample. The authors present the validation results of the AIRS-S (Spanish) from a sample of Mexican and Puerto Rican parents. The AIRS was translated and back translated per approved methodologies. Factor analysis, internal reliability, external validity, and 2-week test-retest reliability (on a subsample) were carried out and results compared with the validated English version. Data were obtained from 80 Spanish-speaking Mexican and Puerto Rican parents of children with asthma. The sample was recruited from two school-based health centers and a free medical clinic in Phoenix, Arizona, and a hospital-based asthma clinic in Bronx, New York. The original Nature of Asthma Symptoms, Facts About Asthma, and Attitudes Towards Medication Use subscales emerged. Remaining factors were a mixture of items with no coherent or theoretical distinction between them. Interpretation of results is limited due to not meeting the minimum requirement of 5 observations/item. Cronbach's alpha coefficients for the total score (alpha = .77) and majority of subscales (alpha range = .53-.77) were acceptable and consistent with the English version. Parental reports of a positive relationship with the HCP significantly predicted AIRS scores congruent with the professional model; longer asthma duration was associated with beliefs aligned with the lay model; and AIRS scores congruent with the professional model were related to lower asthma severity. Stability in AIRS-S scores over 2 weeks was demonstrated. The AIRS-S is a culturally appropriate instrument that can be used by HCPs to ascertain Spanish-speaking parents' asthma illness beliefs and assess discordance with the professional model of asthma management. This information can be used by the HCP when discussing parent's asthma management strategies for their children during clinical encounters.
Validation of a Monte Carlo simulation of the Inveon PET scanner using GATE

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lu, Lijun; Zhang, Houjin; Bian, Zhaoying; Ma, Jianhua; Feng, Qiangjin; Chen, Wufan

2016-08-01

The purpose of this study is to validate the application of GATE (Geant4 Application for Tomographic Emission) Monte Carlo simulation toolkit in order to model the performance characteristics of Siemens Inveon small animal PET system. The simulation results were validated against experimental/published data in accordance with the NEMA NU-4 2008 protocol for standardized evaluation of spatial resolution, sensitivity, scatter fraction (SF) and noise equivalent counting rate (NECR) of a preclinical PET system. An agreement of less than 18% was obtained between the radial, tangential and axial spatial resolutions of the simulated and experimental results. The simulated peak NECR of mouse-size phantom agreed with the experimental result, while for the rat-size phantom simulated value was higher than experimental result. The simulated and experimental SFs of mouse- and rat- size phantom both reached an agreement of less than 2%. It has been shown the feasibility of our GATE model to accurately simulate, within certain limits, all major performance characteristics of Inveon PET system.
The HTA core model: a novel method for producing and reporting health technology assessments.

PubMed

Lampe, Kristian; Mäkelä, Marjukka; Garrido, Marcial Velasco; Anttila, Heidi; Autti-Rämö, Ilona; Hicks, Nicholas J; Hofmann, Björn; Koivisto, Juha; Kunz, Regina; Kärki, Pia; Malmivaara, Antti; Meiesaar, Kersti; Reiman-Möttönen, Päivi; Norderhaug, Inger; Pasternack, Iris; Ruano-Ravina, Alberto; Räsänen, Pirjo; Saalasti-Koskinen, Ulla; Saarni, Samuli I; Walin, Laura; Kristensen, Finn Børlum

2009-12-01

The aim of this study was to develop and test a generic framework to enable international collaboration for producing and sharing results of health technology assessments (HTAs). Ten international teams constructed the HTA Core Model, dividing information contained in a comprehensive HTA into standardized pieces, the assessment elements. Each element contains a generic issue that is translated into practical research questions while performing an assessment. Elements were described in detail in element cards. Two pilot assessments, designated as Core HTAs were also produced. The Model and Core HTAs were both validated. Guidance on the use of the HTA Core Model was compiled into a Handbook. The HTA Core Model considers health technologies through nine domains. Two applications of the Model were developed, one for medical and surgical interventions and another for diagnostic technologies. Two Core HTAs were produced in parallel with developing the model, providing the first real-life testing of the Model and input for further development. The results of formal validation and public feedback were primarily positive. Development needs were also identified and considered. An online Handbook is available. The HTA Core Model is a novel approach to HTA. It enables effective international production and sharing of HTA results in a structured format. The face validity of the Model was confirmed during the project, but further testing and refining are needed to ensure optimal usefulness and user-friendliness. Core HTAs are intended to serve as a basis for local HTA reports. Core HTAs do not contain recommendations on technology use.
Applying the Health Belief Model to college students' health behavior

PubMed Central

Kim, Hak-Seon; Ahn, Joo

2012-01-01

The purpose of this research was to investigate how university students' nutrition beliefs influence their health behavioral intention. This study used an online survey engine (Qulatrics.com) to collect data from college students. Out of 253 questionnaires collected, 251 questionnaires (99.2%) were used for the statistical analysis. Confirmatory Factor Analysis (CFA) revealed that six dimensions, "Nutrition Confidence," "Susceptibility," "Severity," "Barrier," "Benefit," "Behavioral Intention to Eat Healthy Food," and "Behavioral Intention to do Physical Activity," had construct validity; Cronbach's alpha coefficient and composite reliabilities were tested for item reliability. The results validate that objective nutrition knowledge was a good predictor of college students' nutrition confidence. The results also clearly showed that two direct measures were significant predictors of behavioral intentions as hypothesized. Perceived benefit of eating healthy food and perceived barrier for eat healthy food to had significant effects on Behavioral Intentions and was a valid measurement to use to determine Behavioral Intentions. These findings can enhance the extant literature on the universal applicability of the model and serve as useful references for further investigations of the validity of the model within other health care or foodservice settings and for other health behavioral categories. PMID:23346306
Validating Dimensions of Psychosis Symptomatology: Neural Correlates and 20-year Outcomes

PubMed Central

Kotov, Roman; Foti, Dan; Li, Kaiqiao; Bromet, Evelyn J.; Hajcak, Greg; Ruggero, Camilo J.

2016-01-01

Heterogeneity of psychosis presents significant challenges for classification. Between two and 12 symptom dimensions have been proposed, and consensus is lacking. The present study sought to identify uniquely informative models by comparing the validity of these alternatives. An epidemiologic cohort of 628 first-admission inpatients with psychosis was interviewed 6 times over two decades and completed an electrophysiological assessment of error processing at year 20. We first analyzed a comprehensive set of 49 symptoms rated by interviewers at baseline, progressively extracting from one to 12 factors. Next, we compared the ability of resulting factor solutions to (a) account for concurrent neural dysfunction and (b) predict 20-year role, social, residential, and global functioning, and life satisfaction. A four-factor model showed incremental validity with all outcomes, and more complex models did not improve explanatory power. The four dimensions—reality distortion, disorganization, inexpressivity, and apathy/asociality—were replicable in 5 follow-ups, internally consistent, stable across assessments, and showed strong discriminant validity. These results reaffirm the value of separating disorganization and reality distortion, are consistent with recent findings distinguishing inexpressivity and apathy/asociality, and suggest that these four dimensions are fundamental to understanding neural abnormalities and long-term outcomes in psychosis. PMID:27819471
Performance Comparison of NAMI DANCE and FLOW-3D® Models in Tsunami Propagation, Inundation and Currents using NTHMP Benchmark Problems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Velioglu Sogut, Deniz; Yalciner, Ahmet Cevdet

2018-06-01

Field observations provide valuable data regarding nearshore tsunami impact, yet only in inundation areas where tsunami waves have already flooded. Therefore, tsunami modeling is essential to understand tsunami behavior and prepare for tsunami inundation. It is necessary that all numerical models used in tsunami emergency planning be subject to benchmark tests for validation and verification. This study focuses on two numerical codes, NAMI DANCE and FLOW-3D®, for validation and performance comparison. NAMI DANCE is an in-house tsunami numerical model developed by the Ocean Engineering Research Center of Middle East Technical University, Turkey and Laboratory of Special Research Bureau for Automation of Marine Research, Russia. FLOW-3D® is a general purpose computational fluid dynamics software, which was developed by scientists who pioneered in the design of the Volume-of-Fluid technique. The codes are validated and their performances are compared via analytical, experimental and field benchmark problems, which are documented in the ``Proceedings and Results of the 2011 National Tsunami Hazard Mitigation Program (NTHMP) Model Benchmarking Workshop'' and the ``Proceedings and Results of the NTHMP 2015 Tsunami Current Modeling Workshop". The variations between the numerical solutions of these two models are evaluated through statistical error analysis.
Validation of finite element computations for the quantitative prediction of underwater noise from impact pile driving.

PubMed

Zampolli, Mario; Nijhof, Marten J J; de Jong, Christ A F; Ainslie, Michael A; Jansen, Erwin H W; Quesson, Benoit A J

2013-01-01

The acoustic radiation from a pile being driven into the sediment by a sequence of hammer strikes is studied with a linear, axisymmetric, structural acoustic frequency domain finite element model. Each hammer strike results in an impulsive sound that is emitted from the pile and then propagated in the shallow water waveguide. Measurements from accelerometers mounted on the head of a test pile and from hydrophones deployed in the water are used to validate the model results. Transfer functions between the force input at the top of the anvil and field quantities, such as acceleration components in the structure or pressure in the fluid, are computed with the model. These transfer functions are validated using accelerometer or hydrophone measurements to infer the structural forcing. A modeled hammer forcing pulse is used in the successive step to produce quantitative predictions of sound exposure at the hydrophones. The comparison between the model and the measurements shows that, although several simplifying assumptions were made, useful predictions of noise levels based on linear structural acoustic models are possible. In the final part of the paper, the model is used to characterize the pile as an acoustic radiator by analyzing the flow of acoustic energy.
Comparison Between Numerically Simulated and Experimentally Measured Flowfield Quantities Behind a Pulsejet

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Geng, Tao; Paxson, Daniel E.; Zheng, Fei; Kuznetsov, Andrey V.; Roberts, William L.

2008-01-01

Pulsed combustion is receiving renewed interest as a potential route to higher performance in air breathing propulsion systems. Pulsejets offer a simple experimental device with which to study unsteady combustion phenomena and validate simulations. Previous computational fluid dynamic (CFD) simulation work focused primarily on the pulsejet combustion and exhaust processes. This paper describes a new inlet sub-model which simulates the fluidic and mechanical operation of a valved pulsejet head. The governing equations for this sub-model are described. Sub-model validation is provided through comparisons of simulated and experimentally measured reed valve motion, and time averaged inlet mass flow rate. The updated pulsejet simulation, with the inlet sub-model implemented, is validated through comparison with experimentally measured combustion chamber pressure, inlet mass flow rate, operational frequency, and thrust. Additionally, the simulated pulsejet exhaust flowfield, which is dominated by a starting vortex ring, is compared with particle imaging velocimetry (PIV) measurements on the bases of velocity, vorticity, and vortex location. The results show good agreement between simulated and experimental data. The inlet sub-model is shown to be critical for the successful modeling of pulsejet operation. This sub-model correctly predicts both the inlet mass flow rate and its phase relationship with the combustion chamber pressure. As a result, the predicted pulsejet thrust agrees very well with experimental data.
Development of an anaerobic threshold (HRLT, HRVT) estimation equation using the heart rate threshold (HRT) during the treadmill incremental exercise test.

PubMed

Ham, Joo-Ho; Park, Hun-Young; Kim, Youn-Ho; Bae, Sang-Kon; Ko, Byung-Hoon; Nam, Sang-Seok

2017-09-30

The purpose of this study was to develop a regression model to estimate the heart rate at the lactate threshold (HRLT) and the heart rate at the ventilatory threshold (HRVT) using the heart rate threshold (HRT), and to test the validity of the regression model. We performed a graded exercise test with a treadmill in 220 normal individuals (men: 112, women: 108) aged 20-59 years. HRT, HRLT, and HRVT were measured in all subjects. A regression model was developed to estimate HRLT and HRVT using HRT with 70% of the data (men: 79, women: 76) through randomization (7:3), with the Bernoulli trial. The validity of the regression model developed with the remaining 30% of the data (men: 33, women: 32) was also examined. Based on the regression coefficient, we found that the independent variable HRT was a significant variable in all regression models. The adjusted R2 of the developed regression models averaged about 70%, and the standard error of estimation of the validity test results was 11 bpm, which is similar to that of the developed model. These results suggest that HRT is a useful parameter for predicting HRLT and HRVT. ©2017 The Korean Society for Exercise Nutrition
A comprehensive validation toolbox for regional ocean models - Outline, implementation and application to the Baltic Sea

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jandt, Simon; Laagemaa, Priidik; Janssen, Frank

2014-05-01

The systematic and objective comparison between output from a numerical ocean model and a set of observations, called validation in the context of this presentation, is a beneficial activity at several stages, starting from early steps in model development and ending at the quality control of model based products delivered to customers. Even though the importance of this kind of validation work is widely acknowledged it is often not among the most popular tasks in ocean modelling. In order to ease the validation work a comprehensive toolbox has been developed in the framework of the MyOcean-2 project. The objective of this toolbox is to carry out validation integrating different data sources, e.g. time-series at stations, vertical profiles, surface fields or along track satellite data, with one single program call. The validation toolbox, implemented in MATLAB, features all parts of the validation process - ranging from read-in procedures of datasets to the graphical and numerical output of statistical metrics of the comparison. The basic idea is to have only one well-defined validation schedule for all applications, in which all parts of the validation process are executed. Each part, e.g. read-in procedures, forms a module in which all available functions of this particular part are collected. The interface between the functions, the module and the validation schedule is highly standardized. Functions of a module are set up for certain validation tasks, new functions can be implemented into the appropriate module without affecting the functionality of the toolbox. The functions are assigned for each validation task in user specific settings, which are externally stored in so-called namelists and gather all information of the used datasets as well as paths and metadata. In the framework of the MyOcean-2 project the toolbox is frequently used to validate the forecast products of the Baltic Sea Marine Forecasting Centre. Hereby the performance of any new product version is compared with the previous version. Although, the toolbox is mainly tested for the Baltic Sea yet, it can easily be adapted to different datasets and parameters, regardless of the geographic region. In this presentation the usability of the toolbox is demonstrated along with several results of the validation process.
Construction and validation of a three-dimensional finite element model of degenerative scoliosis.

PubMed

Zheng, Jie; Yang, Yonghong; Lou, Shuliang; Zhang, Dongsheng; Liao, Shenghui

2015-12-24

With the aging of the population, degenerative scoliosis (DS) incidence rate is increasing. In recent years, increasing research on this topic has been carried out, yet biomechanical research on the subject is seldom seen and in vitro biomechanical model of DS nearly cannot be available. The objective of this study was to develop and validate a complete three-dimensional finite element model of DS in order to build the digital platform for further biomechanical study. A 55-year-old female DS patient (Suer Pan, ID number was P141986) was selected for this study. This study was performed in accordance with the ethical standards of Declaration of Helsinki and its amendments and was approved by the local ethics committee (117 hospital of PLA ethics committee). Spiral computed tomography (CT) scanning was conducted on the patient's lumbar spine from the T12 to S1. CT images were then imported into a finite element modeling system. A three-dimensional solid model was then formed from segmentation of the CT scan. The three-dimensional model of each vertebra was then meshed, and material properties were assigned to each element according to the pathological characteristics of DS. Loads and boundary conditions were then applied in such a manner as to simulate in vitro biomechanical experiments conducted on lumbar segments. The results of the model were then compared with experimental results in order to validate the model. An integral three-dimensional finite element model of DS was built successfully, consisting of 113,682 solid elements, 686 cable elements, 33,329 shell elements, 4968 target elements, 4968 contact elements, totaling 157,635 elements, and 197,374 nodes. The model accurately described the physical features of DS and was geometrically similar to the object of study. The results of analysis with the finite element model agreed closely with in vitro experiments, validating the accuracy of the model. The three-dimensional finite element model of DS built in this study is clear, reliable, and effective for further biomechanical simulation study of DS.
Improved Hydrology over Peatlands in a Global Land Modeling System

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Bechtold, M.; Delannoy, G.; Reichle, R.; Koster, R.; Mahanama, S.; Roose, Dirk

2018-01-01

Peatlands of the Northern Hemisphere represent an important carbon pool that mainly accumulated since the last ice age under permanently wet conditions in specific geological and climatic settings. The carbon balance of peatlands is closely coupled to water table dynamics. Consequently, the future carbon balance over peatlands is strongly dependent on how hydrology in peatlands will react to changing boundary conditions, e.g. due to climate change or regional water level drawdown of connected aquifers or streams. Global land surface modeling over organic-rich regions can provide valuable global-scale insights on where and how peatlands are in transition due to changing boundary conditions. However, the current global land surface models are not able to reproduce typical hydrological dynamics in peatlands well. We implemented specific structural and parametric changes to account for key hydrological characteristics of peatlands into NASA's GEOS-5 Catchment Land Surface Model (CLSM, Koster et al. 2000). The main modifications pertain to the modeling of partial inundation, and the definition of peatland-specific runoff and evapotranspiration schemes. We ran a set of simulations on a high performance cluster using different CLSM configurations and validated the results with a newly compiled global in-situ dataset of water table depths in peatlands. The results demonstrate that an update of soil hydraulic properties for peat soils alone does not improve the performance of CLSM over peatlands. However, structural model changes for peatlands are able to improve the skill metrics for water table depth. The validation results for the water table depth indicate a reduction of the bias from 2.5 to 0.2 m, and an improvement of the temporal correlation coefficient from 0.5 to 0.65, and from 0.4 to 0.55 for the anomalies. Our validation data set includes both bogs (rain-fed) and fens (ground and/or surface water influence) and reveals that the metrics improved less for fens. In addition, a comparison of evapotranspiration and soil moisture estimates over peatlands will be presented, albeit only with limited ground-based validation data. We will discuss strengths and weaknesses of the new model by focusing on time series of specific validation sites.
Validation of Heat Transfer Thermal Decomposition and Container Pressurization of Polyurethane Foam.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Scott, Sarah Nicole; Dodd, Amanda B.; Larsen, Marvin E.

Polymer foam encapsulants provide mechanical, electrical, and thermal isolation in engineered systems. In fire environments, gas pressure from thermal decomposition of polymers can cause mechanical failure of sealed systems. In this work, a detailed uncertainty quantification study of PMDI-based polyurethane foam is presented to assess the validity of the computational model. Both experimental measurement uncertainty and model prediction uncertainty are examined and compared. Both the mean value method and Latin hypercube sampling approach are used to propagate the uncertainty through the model. In addition to comparing computational and experimental results, the importance of each input parameter on the simulation resultmore » is also investigated. These results show that further development in the physics model of the foam and appropriate associated material testing are necessary to improve model accuracy.« less

Computationally efficient confidence intervals for cross-validated area under the ROC curve estimates.

PubMed

LeDell, Erin; Petersen, Maya; van der Laan, Mark

In binary classification problems, the area under the ROC curve (AUC) is commonly used to evaluate the performance of a prediction model. Often, it is combined with cross-validation in order to assess how the results will generalize to an independent data set. In order to evaluate the quality of an estimate for cross-validated AUC, we obtain an estimate of its variance. For massive data sets, the process of generating a single performance estimate can be computationally expensive. Additionally, when using a complex prediction method, the process of cross-validating a predictive model on even a relatively small data set can still require a large amount of computation time. Thus, in many practical settings, the bootstrap is a computationally intractable approach to variance estimation. As an alternative to the bootstrap, we demonstrate a computationally efficient influence curve based approach to obtaining a variance estimate for cross-validated AUC.
Computationally efficient confidence intervals for cross-validated area under the ROC curve estimates

PubMed Central

Petersen, Maya; van der Laan, Mark

2015-01-01

In binary classification problems, the area under the ROC curve (AUC) is commonly used to evaluate the performance of a prediction model. Often, it is combined with cross-validation in order to assess how the results will generalize to an independent data set. In order to evaluate the quality of an estimate for cross-validated AUC, we obtain an estimate of its variance. For massive data sets, the process of generating a single performance estimate can be computationally expensive. Additionally, when using a complex prediction method, the process of cross-validating a predictive model on even a relatively small data set can still require a large amount of computation time. Thus, in many practical settings, the bootstrap is a computationally intractable approach to variance estimation. As an alternative to the bootstrap, we demonstrate a computationally efficient influence curve based approach to obtaining a variance estimate for cross-validated AUC. PMID:26279737
A cross-validation package driving Netica with python

USGS Publications Warehouse

Fienen, Michael N.; Plant, Nathaniel G.

2014-01-01

Bayesian networks (BNs) are powerful tools for probabilistically simulating natural systems and emulating process models. Cross validation is a technique to avoid overfitting resulting from overly complex BNs. Overfitting reduces predictive skill. Cross-validation for BNs is known but rarely implemented due partly to a lack of software tools designed to work with available BN packages. CVNetica is open-source, written in Python, and extends the Netica software package to perform cross-validation and read, rebuild, and learn BNs from data. Insights gained from cross-validation and implications on prediction versus description are illustrated with: a data-driven oceanographic application; and a model-emulation application. These examples show that overfitting occurs when BNs become more complex than allowed by supporting data and overfitting incurs computational costs as well as causing a reduction in prediction skill. CVNetica evaluates overfitting using several complexity metrics (we used level of discretization) and its impact on performance metrics (we used skill).
Continued Development and Validation of Methods for Spheromak Simulation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Benedett, Thomas

2015-11-01

The HIT-SI experiment has demonstrated stable sustainment of spheromaks; determining how the underlying physics extrapolate to larger, higher-temperature regimes is of prime importance in determining the viability of the inductively-driven spheromak. It is thus prudent to develop and validate a computational model that can be used to study current results and provide an intermediate step between theory and future experiments. A zero-beta Hall-MHD model has shown good agreement with experimental data at 14.5 kHz injector operation. Experimental observations at higher frequency, where the best performance is achieved, indicate pressure effects are important and likely required to attain quantitative agreement with simulations. Efforts to extend the existing validation to high frequency (~ 36-68 kHz) using an extended MHD model implemented in the PSI-TET arbitrary-geometry 3D MHD code will be presented. Results from verification of the PSI-TET extended MHD model using the GEM magnetic reconnection challenge will also be presented along with investigation of injector configurations for future SIHI experiments using Taylor state equilibrium calculations. Work supported by DoE.
Impact of Cross-Axis Structural Dynamics on Validation of Linear Models for Space Launch System

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Pei, Jing; Derry, Stephen D.; Zhou Zhiqiang; Newsom, Jerry R.

2014-01-01

A feasibility study was performed to examine the advisability of incorporating a set of Programmed Test Inputs (PTIs) during the Space Launch System (SLS) vehicle flight. The intent of these inputs is to provide validation to the preflight models for control system stability margins, aerodynamics, and structural dynamics. During October 2009, Ares I-X program was successful in carrying out a series of PTI maneuvers which provided a significant amount of valuable data for post-flight analysis. The resulting data comparisons showed excellent agreement with the preflight linear models across the frequency spectrum of interest. However unlike Ares I-X, the structural dynamics associated with the SLS boost phase configuration are far more complex and highly coupled in all three axes. This presents a challenge when implementing this similar system identification technique to SLS. Preliminary simulation results show noticeable mismatches between PTI validation and analytical linear models in the frequency range of the structural dynamics. An alternate approach was examined which demonstrates the potential for better overall characterization of the system frequency response as well as robustness of the control design.
Indirect Validation of Probe Speed Data on Arterial Corridors

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Eshragh, Sepideh; Young, Stanley E.; Sharifi, Elham

This study aimed to estimate the accuracy of probe speed data on arterial corridors on the basis of roadway geometric attributes and functional classification. It was assumed that functional class (medium and low) along with other road characteristics (such as weighted average of the annual average daily traffic, average signal density, average access point density, and average speed) were available as correlation factors to estimate the accuracy of probe traffic data. This study tested these factors as predictors of the fidelity of probe traffic data by using the results of an extensive validation exercise. This study showed strong correlations betweenmore » these geometric attributes and the accuracy of probe data when they were assessed by using average absolute speed error. Linear models were regressed to existing data to estimate appropriate models for medium- and low-type arterial corridors. The proposed models for medium- and low-type arterials were validated further on the basis of the results of a slowdown analysis. These models can be used to predict the accuracy of probe data indirectly in medium and low types of arterial corridors.« less
Contrasting Predictions of the Extended Comparator Hypothesis and Acquisition-Focused Models of Learning Concerning Retrospective Revaluation

PubMed Central

McConnell, Bridget L.; Urushihara, Kouji; Miller, Ralph R.

2009-01-01

Three conditioned suppression experiments with rats investigated contrasting predictions made by the extended comparator hypothesis and acquisition-focused models of learning, specifically, modified SOP and the revised Rescorla-Wagner model, concerning retrospective revaluation. Two target cues (X and Y) were partially reinforced using a stimulus relative validity design (i.e., AX-Outcome/ BX-No outcome/ CY-Outcome/ DY-No outcome), and subsequently one of the companion cues for each target was extinguished in compound (BC-No outcome). In Experiment 1, which used spaced trials for relative validity training, greater suppression was observed to target cue Y for which the excitatory companion cue had been extinguished relative to target cue X for which the nonexcitatory companion cue had been extinguished. Experiment 2 replicated these results in a sensory preconditioning preparation. Experiment 3 massed the trials during relative validity training, and the opposite pattern of data was observed. The results are consistent with the predictions of the extended comparator hypothesis. Furthermore, this set of experiments is unique in being able to differentiate between these models without invoking higher-order comparator processes. PMID:20141324
Development and validation of a LC-MS/MS assay for quantitation of plasma citrulline for application to animal models of the acute radiation syndrome across multiple species.

PubMed

Jones, Jace W; Tudor, Gregory; Bennett, Alexander; Farese, Ann M; Moroni, Maria; Booth, Catherine; MacVittie, Thomas J; Kane, Maureen A

2014-07-01

The potential risk of a radiological catastrophe highlights the need for identifying and validating potential biomarkers that accurately predict radiation-induced organ damage. A key target organ that is acutely sensitive to the effects of irradiation is the gastrointestinal (GI) tract, referred to as the GI acute radiation syndrome (GI-ARS). Recently, citrulline has been identified as a potential circulating biomarker for radiation-induced GI damage. Prior to biologically validating citrulline as a biomarker for radiation-induced GI injury, there is the important task of developing and validating a quantitation assay for citrulline detection within the radiation animal models used for biomarker validation. Herein, we describe the analytical development and validation of citrulline detection using a liquid chromatography tandem mass spectrometry assay that incorporates stable-label isotope internal standards. Analytical validation for specificity, linearity, lower limit of quantitation, accuracy, intra- and interday precision, extraction recovery, matrix effects, and stability was performed under sample collection and storage conditions according to the Guidance for Industry, Bioanalytical Methods Validation issued by the US Food and Drug Administration. In addition, the method was biologically validated using plasma from well-characterized mouse, minipig, and nonhuman primate GI-ARS models. The results demonstrated that circulating citrulline can be confidently quantified from plasma. Additionally, circulating citrulline displayed a time-dependent response for radiological doses covering GI-ARS across multiple species.
A comparative study on the predictive ability of the decision tree, support vector machine and neuro-fuzzy models in landslide susceptibility mapping using GIS

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pradhan, Biswajeet

2013-02-01

The purpose of the present study is to compare the prediction performances of three different approaches such as decision tree (DT), support vector machine (SVM) and adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference system (ANFIS) for landslide susceptibility mapping at Penang Hill area, Malaysia. The necessary input parameters for the landslide susceptibility assessments were obtained from various sources. At first, landslide locations were identified by aerial photographs and field surveys and a total of 113 landslide locations were constructed. The study area contains 340,608 pixels while total 8403 pixels include landslides. The landslide inventory was randomly partitioned into two subsets: (1) part 1 that contains 50% (4000 landslide grid cells) was used in the training phase of the models; (2) part 2 is a validation dataset 50% (4000 landslide grid cells) for validation of three models and to confirm its accuracy. The digitally processed images of input parameters were combined in GIS. Finally, landslide susceptibility maps were produced, and the performances were assessed and discussed. Total fifteen landslide susceptibility maps were produced using DT, SVM and ANFIS based models, and the resultant maps were validated using the landslide locations. Prediction performances of these maps were checked by receiver operating characteristics (ROC) by using both success rate curve and prediction rate curve. The validation results showed that, area under the ROC curve for the fifteen models produced using DT, SVM and ANFIS varied from 0.8204 to 0.9421 for success rate curve and 0.7580 to 0.8307 for prediction rate curves, respectively. Moreover, the prediction curves revealed that model 5 of DT has slightly higher prediction performance (83.07), whereas the success rate showed that model 5 of ANFIS has better prediction (94.21) capability among all models. The results of this study showed that landslide susceptibility mapping in the Penang Hill area using the three approaches (e.g., DT, SVM and ANFIS) is viable. As far as the performance of the models are concerned, the results appeared to be quite satisfactory, i.e., the zones determined on the map being zones of relative susceptibility.
Model Identification in Time-Series Analysis: Some Empirical Results.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Padia, William L.

Model identification of time-series data is essential to valid statistical tests of intervention effects. Model identification is, at best, inexact in the social and behavioral sciences where one is often confronted with small numbers of observations. These problems are discussed, and the results of independent identifications of 130 social and…
Improving Water Level and Soil Moisture Over Peatlands in a Global Land Modeling System

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Bechtold, M.; De Lannoy, G. J. M.; Roose, D.; Reichle, R. H.; Koster, R. D.; Mahanama, S. P.

2017-01-01

New model structure for peatlands results in improved skill metrics (without any parameter calibration) Simulated surface soil moisture strongly affected by new model, but reliable soil moisture data lacking for validation.
SWAT Model Configuration, Calibration and Validation for Lake Champlain Basin

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

The Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model was used to develop phosphorus loading estimates for sources in the Lake Champlain Basin. This document describes the model setup and parameterization, and presents calibration results.
Ensemble assimilation of ARGO temperature profile, sea surface temperature, and altimetric satellite data into an eddy permitting primitive equation model of the North Atlantic Ocean

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yan, Y.; Barth, A.; Beckers, J. M.; Candille, G.; Brankart, J. M.; Brasseur, P.

2015-07-01

Sea surface height, sea surface temperature, and temperature profiles at depth collected between January and December 2005 are assimilated into a realistic eddy permitting primitive equation model of the North Atlantic Ocean using the Ensemble Kalman Filter. Sixty ensemble members are generated by adding realistic noise to the forcing parameters related to the temperature. The ensemble is diagnosed and validated by comparison between the ensemble spread and the model/observation difference, as well as by rank histogram before the assimilation experiments. An incremental analysis update scheme is applied in order to reduce spurious oscillations due to the model state correction. The results of the assimilation are assessed according to both deterministic and probabilistic metrics with independent/semiindependent observations. For deterministic validation, the ensemble means, together with the ensemble spreads are compared to the observations, in order to diagnose the ensemble distribution properties in a deterministic way. For probabilistic validation, the continuous ranked probability score (CRPS) is used to evaluate the ensemble forecast system according to reliability and resolution. The reliability is further decomposed into bias and dispersion by the reduced centered random variable (RCRV) score in order to investigate the reliability properties of the ensemble forecast system. The improvement of the assimilation is demonstrated using these validation metrics. Finally, the deterministic validation and the probabilistic validation are analyzed jointly. The consistency and complementarity between both validations are highlighted.
Development of the Galaxy Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease (COPD) Model Using Data from ECLIPSE: Internal Validation of a Linked-Equations Cohort Model.

PubMed

Briggs, Andrew H; Baker, Timothy; Risebrough, Nancy A; Chambers, Mike; Gonzalez-McQuire, Sebastian; Ismaila, Afisi S; Exuzides, Alex; Colby, Chris; Tabberer, Maggie; Muellerova, Hana; Locantore, Nicholas; Rutten van Mölken, Maureen P M H; Lomas, David A

2017-05-01

The recent joint International Society for Pharmacoeconomics and Outcomes Research / Society for Medical Decision Making Modeling Good Research Practices Task Force emphasized the importance of conceptualizing and validating models. We report a new model of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) (part of the Galaxy project) founded on a conceptual model, implemented using a novel linked-equation approach, and internally validated. An expert panel developed a conceptual model including causal relationships between disease attributes, progression, and final outcomes. Risk equations describing these relationships were estimated using data from the Evaluation of COPD Longitudinally to Identify Predictive Surrogate Endpoints (ECLIPSE) study, with costs estimated from the TOwards a Revolution in COPD Health (TORCH) study. Implementation as a linked-equation model enabled direct estimation of health service costs and quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) for COPD patients over their lifetimes. Internal validation compared 3 years of predicted cohort experience with ECLIPSE results. At 3 years, the Galaxy COPD model predictions of annual exacerbation rate and annual decline in forced expiratory volume in 1 second fell within the ECLIPSE data confidence limits, although 3-year overall survival was outside the observed confidence limits. Projections of the risk equations over time permitted extrapolation to patient lifetimes. Averaging the predicted cost/QALY outcomes for the different patients within the ECLIPSE cohort gives an estimated lifetime cost of £25,214 (undiscounted)/£20,318 (discounted) and lifetime QALYs of 6.45 (undiscounted/5.24 [discounted]) per ECLIPSE patient. A new form of model for COPD was conceptualized, implemented, and internally validated, based on a series of linked equations using epidemiological data (ECLIPSE) and cost data (TORCH). This Galaxy model predicts COPD outcomes from treatment effects on disease attributes such as lung function, exacerbations, symptoms, or exercise capacity; further external validation is required.
Validation of A One-Dimensional Snow-Land Surface Model at the Sleepers River Watershed

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sun, Wen-Yih; Chern, Jiun-Dar

A one-dimensional land surface model, based on conservations of heat and water substance inside the soil and snow, is presented. To validate the model, a stand-alone experiment is carried out with five years of meteorological and hydrological observations collected from the NOAA-ARS Cooperative Snow Research Project (1966-1974) at the Sleepers River watershed in Danville, Vermont, U.S.A. The numerical results show that the model is capable of reproducing the observed soil temperature at different depths during the winter as well as a rapid increase of soil temperature after snow melts in the spring. The model also simulates the density, temperature, thickness, and equivalent water depth of snow reasonably well. The numerical results are sensitive to the fresh snow density and the soil properties used in the model, which affect the heat exchange between the snowpack and the soil.
Monte Carlo simulation of Ray-Scan 64 PET system and performance evaluation using GATE toolkit

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, Suying; Zhang, Qiushi; Vuletic, Ivan; Xie, Zhaoheng; Yang, Kun; Ren, Qiushi

2017-02-01

In this study, we aimed to develop a GATE model for the simulation of Ray-Scan 64 PET scanner and model its performance characteristics. A detailed implementation of system geometry and physical process were included in the simulation model. Then we modeled the performance characteristics of Ray-Scan 64 PET system for the first time, based on National Electrical Manufacturers Association (NEMA) NU-2 2007 protocols and validated the model against experimental measurement, including spatial resolution, sensitivity, counting rates and noise equivalent count rate (NECR). Moreover, an accurate dead time module was investigated to simulate the counting rate performance. Overall results showed reasonable agreement between simulation and experimental data. The validation results showed the reliability and feasibility of the GATE model to evaluate major performance of Ray-Scan 64 PET system. It provided a useful tool for a wide range of research applications.
Spacecraft Internal Acoustic Environment Modeling

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Chu, Shao-Sheng R.; Allen Christopher S.

2010-01-01

Acoustic modeling can be used to identify key noise sources, determine/analyze sub-allocated requirements, keep track of the accumulation of minor noise sources, and to predict vehicle noise levels at various stages in vehicle development, first with estimates of noise sources, later with experimental data. This paper describes the implementation of acoustic modeling for design purposes by incrementally increasing model fidelity and validating the accuracy of the model while predicting the noise of sources under various conditions. During FY 07, a simple-geometry Statistical Energy Analysis (SEA) model was developed and validated using a physical mockup and acoustic measurements. A process for modeling the effects of absorptive wall treatments and the resulting reverberation environment were developed. During FY 08, a model with more complex and representative geometry of the Orion Crew Module (CM) interior was built, and noise predictions based on input noise sources were made. A corresponding physical mockup was also built. Measurements were made inside this mockup, and comparisons were made with the model and showed excellent agreement. During FY 09, the fidelity of the mockup and corresponding model were increased incrementally by including a simple ventilation system. The airborne noise contribution of the fans was measured using a sound intensity technique, since the sound power levels were not known beforehand. This is opposed to earlier studies where Reference Sound Sources (RSS) with known sound power level were used. Comparisons of the modeling result with the measurements in the mockup showed excellent results. During FY 10, the fidelity of the mockup and the model were further increased by including an ECLSS (Environmental Control and Life Support System) wall, associated closeout panels, and the gap between ECLSS wall and mockup wall. The effect of sealing the gap and adding sound absorptive treatment to ECLSS wall were also modeled and validated.
[Elaboration and validation of a tool to measure psychological well-being: WBMMS].

PubMed

Massé, R; Poulin, C; Dassa, C; Lambert, J; Bélair, S; Battaglini, M A

1998-01-01

Psychological well-being scales used in epidemiologic surveys usually show high construct validity. The content validation, however, is less convincing since these scales rest on lists of items that reflect the theoretical model of the authors. In this study we present results of the construct and criterion validation of a new Well-Being Manifestations Measure Scale (WBMMS) founded on an initial list of manifestations derived from an original content validation in a general population. It is concluded that national and public health epidemiologic surveys should include both measures of positive and negative mental health.
Numerical model (switchable/dual model) of the human head for rigid body and finite elements applications.

PubMed

Tabacu, Stefan

2015-01-01

In this paper, a methodology for the development and validation of a numerical model of the human head using generic procedures is presented. All steps required, starting with the model generation, model validation and applications will be discussed. The proposed model may be considered as a dual one due to its capabilities to switch from deformable to a rigid body according to the application's requirements. The first step is to generate the numerical model of the human head using geometry files or medical images. The required stiffness and damping for the elastic connection used for the rigid body model are identified by performing a natural frequency analysis. The presented applications for model validation are related to impact analysis. The first case is related to Nahum's (Nahum and Smith 1970) experiments pressure data being evaluated and a pressure map generated using the results from discrete elements. For the second case, the relative displacement between the brain and the skull is evaluated according to Hardy's (Hardy WH, Foster CD, Mason, MJ, Yang KH, King A, Tashman S. 2001.Investigation of head injury mechanisms using neutral density technology and high-speed biplanar X-ray. Stapp Car Crash J. 45:337-368, SAE Paper 2001-22-0016) experiments. The main objective is to validate the rigid model as a quick and versatile tool for acquiring the input data for specific brain analyses.
Validated simulator for space debris removal with nets and other flexible tethers applications

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gołębiowski, Wojciech; Michalczyk, Rafał; Dyrek, Michał; Battista, Umberto; Wormnes, Kjetil

2016-12-01

In the context of active debris removal technologies and preparation activities for the e.Deorbit mission, a simulator for net-shaped elastic bodies dynamics and their interactions with rigid bodies, has been developed. Its main application is to aid net design and test scenarios for space debris deorbitation. The simulator can model all the phases of the debris capturing process: net launch, flight and wrapping around the target. It handles coupled simulation of rigid and flexible bodies dynamics. Flexible bodies were implemented using Cosserat rods model. It allows to simulate flexible threads or wires with elasticity and damping for stretching, bending and torsion. Threads may be combined into structures of any topology, so the software is able to simulate nets, pure tethers, tether bundles, cages, trusses, etc. Full contact dynamics was implemented. Programmatic interaction with simulation is possible - i.e. for control implementation. The underlying model has been experimentally validated and due to significant gravity influence, experiment had to be performed in microgravity conditions. Validation experiment for parabolic flight was a downscaled process of Envisat capturing. The prepacked net was launched towards the satellite model, it expanded, hit the model and wrapped around it. The whole process was recorded with 2 fast stereographic camera sets for full 3D trajectory reconstruction. The trajectories were used to compare net dynamics to respective simulations and then to validate the simulation tool. The experiments were performed on board of a Falcon-20 aircraft, operated by National Research Council in Ottawa, Canada. Validation results show that model reflects phenomenon physics accurately enough, so it may be used for scenario evaluation and mission design purposes. The functionalities of the simulator are described in detail in the paper, as well as its underlying model, sample cases and methodology behind validation. Results are presented and typical use cases are discussed showing that the software may be used to design throw nets for space debris capturing, but also to simulate deorbitation process, chaser control system or general interactions between rigid and elastic bodies - all in convenient and efficient way. The presented work was led by SKA Polska under the ESA contract, within the CleanSpace initiative.

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